Mountain Glaciers and Ice Caps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ananichheva, Maria; Arendt, Anthony; Hagen, Jon-Ove; Hock, Regine; Josberger, Edward G.; Moore, R. Dan; Pfeffer, William Tad; Wolken, Gabriel J.

2011-01-01

Projections of future rates of mass loss from mountain glaciers and ice caps in the Arctic focus primarily on projections of changes in the surface mass balance. Current models are not yet capable of making realistic forecasts of changes in losses by calving. Surface mass balance models are forced with downscaled output from climate models driven by forcing scenarios that make assumptions about the future rate of growth of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Thus, mass loss projections vary considerably, depending on the forcing scenario used and the climate model from which climate projections are derived. A new study in which a surface mass balance model is driven by output from ten general circulation models (GCMs) forced by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) A1B emissions scenario yields estimates of total mass loss of between 51 and 136 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) (or 13% to 36% of current glacier volume) by 2100. This implies that there will still be substantial glacier mass in the Arctic in 2100 and that Arctic mountain glaciers and ice caps will continue to influence global sea-level change well into the 22nd century.

Downscaled ice-ocean simulations for the Chukchi and Eastern Siberian Seas from an oceanic re-analysis product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujisaki-Manome, A.; Wang, J.

2016-12-01

Arctic summer sea ice has been declining at the rate that is much faster than any climate models predict. While the accelerated sea ice melting in the recent few decades could be attributed to several mechanisms such as the Arctic temperature amplification and the ice-albedo feedback, this does not necessarily explain why climate models underestimate the observed rate of summer sea ice loss. Clearly, an improved understanding is needed in what processes could be missed in climate models and could play roles in unprecedented loss of sea ice. This study evaluates contributions of sub-mesoscale processes in the ice edge (i.e. the boundary region between open water and ice covered area), which include eddies, ice bands, and the vertical mixing associated with ice bands, to the melting of sea ice and how they explain the underestimation of sea ice loss in the current state-of-art climate models. The focus area is in the pacific side of the Arctic Ocean. First, several oceanic re-analysis products including NCEP-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) are evaluated in comparison with the in-situ observations from the Russian-American Long-term Census of the Arctic (RUSALCA) project. Second, the downscaled ice-ocean simulations are conducted for the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas with initial and open boundary conditions provided from a selected oceanic re-analysis product.

The distribution of ground ice on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mellon, M. T.; Jakosky, B. M.

1993-01-01

A wealth of geologic evidence indicates that subsurface water ice has played an important role in the evolution of Martian landforms. Theoretical models of the stability of ground ice show that in the near-surface regolith ice is currently stable at latitudes poleward of about +/- 40 deg and below a depth of a few centimeters to a meter, with some variations with longitude. If ice is not previously present at a particular location where it is stable, atmospheric water will diffuse into the regolith and condense as ice, driven by the annual subsurface thermal oscillations. The lower boundary of this ice deposit is found to occur at a depth (typically a few meters) where the annual thermal oscillations give way to the geothermal gradient. In the equatorial regions near-surface ice is currently not stable, resulting in the sublimation of any existing ice and subsequent loss to the atmosphere. However, subliming ice might be maintained at a steady-state depth, where diffusion and loss to the atmosphere are balanced by resupply from a possible deeper source of water (either deeper, not yet depleted, ice deposits or ground water). This depth is typically a few tens to hundreds of meters and depends primarily on the surface temperature and the nature of the geothermal gradient, being deeper for a higher surface temperature and a lower geothermal gradient. Such an equatorial deposit is characterized by the regolith ice content being low nearer the surface and increasing with depth in the deposit. Oscillations in the orbit will affect this picture of ground ice in two ways: by causing periodic changes in the pattern of near-surface stability and by producing subsurface thermal waves that may be capable of driving water ice deeper into the regolith.

Polar ice-sheet contributions to sea level during past warm periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutton, A.

2015-12-01

Recent sea-level rise has been dominated by thermal expansion and glacier loss, but the contribution from mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is expected to exceed other contributions under future sustained warming. Due to limitations of existing ice sheet models and the lack of relevant analogues in the historical record, projecting the timing and magnitude of polar ice sheet mass loss in the future remains challenging. One approach to improving our understanding of how polar ice-sheet retreat will unfold is to integrate observations and models of sea level, ice sheets, and climate during past intervals of warmth when the polar ice sheets contributed to higher sea levels. A recent review evaluated the evidence of polar ice sheet mass loss during several warm periods, including interglacials during the mid-Pliocene warm period, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, 5e (Last Interglacial), and 1 (Holocene). Sea-level benchmarks of ice-sheet retreat during the first of these three periods, when global mean climate was ~1 to 3 deg. C warmer than preindustrial, are useful for understanding the long-term potential for future sea-level rise. Despite existing uncertainties in these reconstructions, it is clear that our present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past, resulting in a conservative estimate for a global mean sea-level rise of 6 meters above present (or more). This presentation will focus on identifying the approaches that have yielded significant advances in terms of past sea level and ice sheet reconstruction as well as outstanding challenges. A key element of recent advances in sea-level reconstructions is the ability to recognize and quantify the imprint of geophysical processes, such as glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and dynamic topography, that lead to significant spatial variability in sea level reconstructions. Identifying specific ice-sheet sources that contributed to higher sea levels is a challenge that is currently hindered by limited field evidence at high latitudes. Finally, I will explore the concept of how increasing the quantity and quality of paleo sea level and ice sheet reconstructions can lead to improved quantification of contemporary changes in ice sheets and sea level.

Destabilisation of an Arctic ice cap triggered by a hydro-thermodynamic feedback to summer-melt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunse, T.; Schellenberger, T.; Kääb, A.; Hagen, J. O.; Schuler, T. V.; Reijmer, C. H.

2014-05-01

Mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets currently accounts for two-thirds of the observed global sea-level rise and has accelerated since the 1990s, coincident with strong atmospheric warming in the Polar Regions. Here we present continuous GPS measurements and satellite synthetic aperture radar based velocity maps from the Austfonna ice cap, Svalbard, that demonstrate strong links between surface-melt and multiannual ice-flow acceleration. We identify a hydro-thermodynamic feedback that successively mobilizes stagnant ice regions, initially frozen to their bed, thereby facilitating fast basal motion over an expanding area. By autumn 2012, successive destabilization of the marine terminus escalated in a surge of the ice cap's largest drainage basin, Basin-3. The resulting iceberg discharge of 4.2 ± 1.6 Gt a-1 over the period April 2012 to May 2013 triples the calving loss from the entire ice cap. After accounting for the terminus advance, the related sea-level rise contribution of 7.2 ± 2.6 Gt a-1 matches the recent annual ice-mass loss from the entire Svalbard archipelago. Our study highlights the importance of dynamic glacier wastage and illuminates mechanisms that may trigger a sustained increase in dynamic glacier wastage or the disintegration of ice-sheets in response to climate warming, which is acknowledged but not quantified in global projections of sea-level rise.

Ice-sheet mass balance and climate change.

PubMed

Hanna, Edward; Navarro, Francisco J; Pattyn, Frank; Domingues, Catia M; Fettweis, Xavier; Ivins, Erik R; Nicholls, Robert J; Ritz, Catherine; Smith, Ben; Tulaczyk, Slawek; Whitehouse, Pippa L; Zwally, H Jay

2013-06-06

Since the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, new observations of ice-sheet mass balance and improved computer simulations of ice-sheet response to continuing climate change have been published. Whereas Greenland is losing ice mass at an increasing pace, current Antarctic ice loss is likely to be less than some recently published estimates. It remains unclear whether East Antarctica has been gaining or losing ice mass over the past 20 years, and uncertainties in ice-mass change for West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula remain large. We discuss the past six years of progress and examine the key problems that remain.

Surface water hydrology and the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, L. C.; Yang, K.; Pitcher, L. H.; Overstreet, B. T.; Chu, V. W.; Rennermalm, A. K.; Cooper, M. G.; Gleason, C. J.; Ryan, J.; Hubbard, A.; Tedesco, M.; Behar, A.

2016-12-01

Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet now exceeds 260 Gt/year, raising global sea level by >0.7 mm annually. Approximately two-thirds of this total mass loss is now driven by negative ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), attributed mainly to production and runoff of meltwater from the ice sheet surface. This new dominance of runoff as a driver of GrIS total mass loss will likely persist owing to anticipated further increases in surface melting, reduced meltwater storage in firn, and the waning importance of dynamical mass losses (ice calving) as the ice sheets retreat from their marine-terminating margins. It also creates the need and opportunity for integrative research pairing traditional surface water hydrology approaches with glaciology. As one example, we present a way to measure supraglacial "runoff" (i.e. specific discharge) at the supraglacial catchment scale ( 101-102 km2), using in situ measurements of supraglacial river discharge and high-resolution satellite/drone mapping of upstream catchment area. This approach, which is standard in terrestrial hydrology but novel for ice sheet science, enables independent verification and improvement of modeled SMB runoff estimates used to project sea level rise. Furthermore, because current SMB models do not consider the role of fluvial watershed processes operating on the ice surface, inclusion of even a simple surface routing model materially improves simulations of runoff delivered to moulins, the critical pathways for meltwater entry into the ice sheet. Incorporating principles of surface water hydrology and fluvial geomorphology and into glaciological models will thus aid estimates of Greenland meltwater runoff to the global ocean as well as connections to subglacial hydrology and ice sheet dynamics.

Using Reanalysis Data for the Prediction of Seasonal Wind Turbine Power Losses Due to Icing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burtch, D.; Mullendore, G. L.; Delene, D. J.; Storm, B.

2013-12-01

The Northern Plains region of the United States is home to a significant amount of potential wind energy. However, in winter months capturing this potential power is severely impacted by the meteorological conditions, in the form of icing. Predicting the expected loss in power production due to icing is a valuable parameter that can be used in wind turbine operations, determination of wind turbine site locations and long-term energy estimates which are used for financing purposes. Currently, losses due to icing must be estimated when developing predictions for turbine feasibility and financing studies, while icing maps, a tool commonly used in Europe, are lacking in the United States. This study uses the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) dataset in conjunction with turbine production data to investigate various methods of predicting seasonal losses (October-March) due to icing at two wind turbine sites located 121 km apart in North Dakota. The prediction of icing losses is based on temperature and relative humidity thresholds and is accomplished using three methods. For each of the three methods, the required atmospheric variables are determined in one of two ways: using industry-specific software to correlate anemometer data in conjunction with the MERRA dataset and using only the MERRA dataset for all variables. For each season, a percentage of the total expected generated power lost due to icing is determined and compared to observed losses from the production data. An optimization is performed in order to determine the relative humidity threshold that minimizes the difference between the predicted and observed values. Eight seasons of data are used to determine an optimal relative humidity threshold, and a further three seasons of data are used to test this threshold. Preliminary results have shown that the optimized relative humidity threshold for the northern turbine is higher than the southern turbine for all methods. For the three test seasons, the optimized thresholds tend to under-predict the icing losses. However, the threshold determined using boundary layer similarity theory most closely predicts the power losses due to icing versus the other methods. For the northern turbine, the average predicted power loss over the three seasons is 4.65 % while the observed power loss is 6.22 % (average difference of 1.57 %). For the southern turbine, the average predicted power loss and observed power loss over the same time period are 4.43 % and 6.16 %, respectively (average difference of 1.73 %). The three-year average, however, does not clearly capture the variability that exists season-to-season. On examination of each of the test seasons individually, the optimized relative humidity threshold methodology performs better than fixed power loss estimates commonly used in the wind energy industry.

Recent Changes in Ices Mass Balance of the Amundsen Sea Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutterley, T. C.; Velicogna, I.; Rignot, E. J.; Mouginot, J.; Flament, T.; van den Broeke, M. R.; van Wessem, M.; Reijmer, C.

2014-12-01

The glaciers flowing into the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) sector of West Antarctica were confirmed in the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE) to be the dominant contributors to the current Antarctic ice mass loss, and recently recognized to be undergoing marine ice sheet instability. Here, we investigate their regional ice mass balance using a time series of satellite and airborne data combined with model output products from the Regional Atmospheric and Climate Model (RACMO). Our dataset includes laser altimetry from NASA's ICESat-1 satellite mission and from Operation IceBridge (OIB) airborne surveys, satellite radar altimetry data from ESA's Envisat mission, time-variable gravity data from NASA/DLR's GRACE mission, surface mass balance products from RACMO, ice velocity from a combination of international synthetic aperture radar satellites and ice thickness data from OIB. We find a record of ice mass balance for the ASE where all the analyzed techniques agree remarkably in magnitude and temporal variability. The mass loss of the region has been increasing continuously since 1992, with no indication of a slow down. The mass loss during the common period averaged 91 Gt/yr and accelerated 20 Gt/yr2. In 1992-2013, the ASE contributed 4.5 mm global sea level rise. Overall, our results demonstrate the synergy of multiple analysis techniques for examining Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance at the regional scale. This work was performed at UCI and JPL under a contract with NASA.

Assessing the potential impacts of declining Arctic sea ice cover on the photochemical degradation of dissolved organic matter in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Logvinova, Christie L.; Frey, Karen E.; Mann, Paul J.; Stubbins, Aron; Spencer, Robert G. M.

2015-11-01

A warming and shifting climate in the Arctic has led to significant declines in sea ice over the last several decades. Although these changes in sea ice cover are well documented, large uncertainties remain in how associated increases in solar radiation transmitted to the underlying ocean water column will impact heating, biological, and biogeochemical processes in the Arctic Ocean. In this study, six under-ice marine, two ice-free marine, and two ice-free terrestrially influenced water samples were irradiated using a solar simulator for 72 h (representing ~10 days of ambient sunlight) to investigate dissolved organic matter (DOM) dynamics from the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. Solar irradiation caused chromophoric DOM (CDOM) light absorption at 254 nm to decrease by 48 to 63%. An overall loss in total DOM fluorescence intensity was also observed at the end of all experiments, and each of six components identified by parallel factor (PARAFAC) analysis was shown to be photoreactive in at least one experiment. Fluorescent DOM (FDOM) also indicated that the majority of DOM in under-ice and ice-free marine waters was likely algal-derived. Measurable changes in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) were only observed for sites influenced by riverine runoff. Losses of CDOM absorbance at shorter wavelengths suggest that the beneficial UV protection currently received by marine organisms may decline with the increased light transmittance associated with sea ice melt ponding and overall reductions of sea ice. Our FDOM analyses demonstrate that DOM irrespective of source was susceptible to photobleaching. Additionally, our findings suggest that photodegradation of CDOM in under-ice waters is not currently a significant source of carbon dioxide (CO2) (i.e., we did not observe systematic DOC loss). However, increases in primary production and terrestrial freshwater export expected under future climate change scenarios may cause an increase in CDOM quantity and shift in quality throughout Arctic Ocean surface waters. As Arctic temperatures continue to warm and summer sea ice further declines, examination of the resulting enhanced photodegradation processes and their impacts on the interplay between primary production, carbon cycling, and surface ocean heating processes will be paramount.

Extensive Holocene ice sheet grounding line retreat and uplift-driven readvance in West Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kingslake, J.; Scherer, R. P.; Albrecht, T.; Coenen, J. J.; Powell, R. D.; Reese, R.; Stansell, N.; Tulaczyk, S. M.; Whitehouse, P. L.

2017-12-01

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) reached its Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) extent 29-14 kyr before present. Numerical models used to project future ice-sheet contributions to sea-level rise exploit reconstructions of post-LGM ice mass loss to tune model parameterizations. Ice-sheet reconstructions are poorly constrained in areas where floating ice shelves or a lack of exposed geology obstruct conventional glacial-geological techniques. In the Weddell and Ross Sea sectors, ice-sheet reconstructions have traditionally assumed progressive grounding line (GL) retreat throughout the Holocene. Contrasting this view, using three distinct lines of evidence, we show that the GL retreated hundreds of kilometers inland of its present position, before glacial isostatic rebound during the Mid to Late Holocene caused the GL to readvance to its current position. Evidence for retreat and readvance during the last glacial termination includes (1) widespread radiocarbon in sediment cores recovered from beneath ice streams along the Siple and Gould Coasts, indicating marine exposure at least 200 km inland of the current GL, (2) ice-penetrating radar observations of relic crevasses and other englacial structures preserved in slow-moving grounded ice, indicating ice-shelf grounding and (3) an ensemble of new ice-sheet simulations showing widespread post-LGM retreat of the GL inland of its current location and later readvance. The model indicates that GL readvance across low slope ice-stream troughs requires uplift-driven grounding of the ice shelf on topographic highs (ice rises). Our findings highlight ice-shelf pinning points and lithospheric response to unloading as drivers of major ice-sheet fluctuations. Full WAIS collapse likely requires GL retreat well beyond its current position in the Ronne and Ross Sectors and linkage via Amundsen Sea sector glaciers.

Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Sea-Level over the Next Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aschwanden, A.; Fahnestock, M. A.; Truffer, M.

2017-12-01

The contribution of Greenland's outlet glaciers to sea-level remains a wild card in global sea level predictions but progress in mapping ice thickness combined with high-resolution flow modeling now allow to revisit questions about the long-term stability of the ice sheet. Here we present the first outlet glacier resolving assessment of Greenland's contribution to sea-level over the next millennium. We find that increased ice discharge resulting from acceleration of outlet glaciers due to ice melt at tidewater glacier margins dominates mass loss during the 21st century. However, as the ice sheet surfaces lowers, surface melt increases and over the course of the millennium, the relative contribution of ice discharge to total mass loss decreases. By the end of the 22nd century, most outlet glaciers in the north-west will have retreated out of tide-water, while in south-east enhanced precipitation partially offsets high ice discharge. The outlet glaciers of the central west coast, most notably Jakobshavn Isbrae, play a key role in dynamic mass loss due to their submarine connection to the interior reservoir. We find that coast-ward advection of cold ice from the interior counteracts outlet glacier acceleration by increasing ice viscosity and thereby reducing vertical shearing. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the ice margin in north and north-east Greenland retreats far enough to reach the vast interior where the subglacial topography is below sea level. This leads to a dramatic retreat in the second part of the millenium, and Greenland could shrink to 10% of its current volume by the end of the millennium.

Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet after local destabilization of the Amundsen Basin

PubMed Central

Feldmann, Johannes; Levermann, Anders

2015-01-01

The future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest uncertainty in sea-level projections of this and upcoming centuries. Recently, satellite observations and high-resolution simulations have suggested the initiation of an ice-sheet instability in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica, caused by the last decades’ enhanced basal ice-shelf melting. Whether this localized destabilization will yield a full discharge of marine ice from West Antarctica, associated with a global sea-level rise of more than 3 m, or whether the ice loss is limited by ice dynamics and topographic features, is unclear. Here we show that in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model, a local destabilization causes a complete disintegration of the marine ice in West Antarctica. In our simulations, at 5-km horizontal resolution, the region disequilibrates after 60 y of currently observed melt rates. Thereafter, the marine ice-sheet instability fully unfolds and is not halted by topographic features. In fact, the ice loss in Amundsen Sea sector shifts the catchment's ice divide toward the Filchner–Ronne and Ross ice shelves, which initiates grounding-line retreat there. Our simulations suggest that if a destabilization of Amundsen Sea sector has indeed been initiated, Antarctica will irrevocably contribute at least 3 m to global sea-level rise during the coming centuries to millennia. PMID:26578762

Oceanographic Influences on Ice Shelves and Drainage in the Amundsen Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minzoni, R. T.; Anderson, J. B.; Majewski, W.; Yokoyama, Y.; Fernandez, R.; Jakobsson, M.

2016-12-01

Marine sediment cores collected during the IB OdenSouthern Ocean 2009-2010 cruise are used to reconstruct the Holocene history of the Cosgrove Ice Shelf, which today occupies Ferrero Bay, a large embayment of eastern Pine Island Bay. Detailed sedimentology, geochemistry, and micropaleontology of cores, in conjunction with subbottom profiles, reveal an unexpected history of recession. Presence of planktic foraminifera at the base of Kasten Core-15 suggests an episode of enhanced circulation beneath a large ice shelf that covered the Amundsen Sea during the Early Holocene, and relatively warm water incursion has been interpreted as a potential culprit for major recession and ice mass loss by 10.7 cal kyr BP from radiocarbon dating. Fine sediment deposition and low productivity throughout the Mid Holocene indicate long-lived stability of the Cosgrove Ice Shelf in Ferrero Bay, despite regional warming evident from ice core data and ice shelf loss in the Antarctic Peninsula. High productivity and diatom abundance signify opening of Ferrero Bay and recession of the Cosgrove Ice Shelf to its present day configuration by 2.0 cal kyr BP. This coincides with deglaciation of an island near Canisteo Peninsula according to published cosmogenic exposure ages. Presence of benthic foraminifera imply that warm deep water influx beneath the extended Cosgrove Ice Shelf was a mechanism for under-melting the ice shelf and destabilizing the grounding line. Major ice shelf recession may also entail continental ice mass loss from the eastern sector of the Amundsen Sea during the Late Holocene. Oceanographic forcing remains a key concern for the current stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, especially along the tidewater margins of West Antarctica. Ongoing work on diatom and foraminiferal assemblages of the Late Holocene in Ferrero Bay and other fjord settings will improve our understanding of recent oceanographic changes and their potential influence on ice shelves and outlet glaciers that contribute to the mass balance of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Extensive dynamic thinning on the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.

PubMed

Pritchard, Hamish D; Arthern, Robert J; Vaughan, David G; Edwards, Laura A

2009-10-15

Many glaciers along the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are accelerating and, for this reason, contribute increasingly to global sea-level rise. Globally, ice losses contribute approximately 1.8 mm yr(-1) (ref. 8), but this could increase if the retreat of ice shelves and tidewater glaciers further enhances the loss of grounded ice or initiates the large-scale collapse of vulnerable parts of the ice sheets. Ice loss as a result of accelerated flow, known as dynamic thinning, is so poorly understood that its potential contribution to sea level over the twenty-first century remains unpredictable. Thinning on the ice-sheet scale has been monitored by using repeat satellite altimetry observations to track small changes in surface elevation, but previous sensors could not resolve most fast-flowing coastal glaciers. Here we report the use of high-resolution ICESat (Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimetry to map change along the entire grounded margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. To isolate the dynamic signal, we compare rates of elevation change from both fast-flowing and slow-flowing ice with those expected from surface mass-balance fluctuations. We find that dynamic thinning of glaciers now reaches all latitudes in Greenland, has intensified on key Antarctic grounding lines, has endured for decades after ice-shelf collapse, penetrates far into the interior of each ice sheet and is spreading as ice shelves thin by ocean-driven melt. In Greenland, glaciers flowing faster than 100 m yr(-1) thinned at an average rate of 0.84 m yr(-1), and in the Amundsen Sea embayment of Antarctica, thinning exceeded 9.0 m yr(-1) for some glaciers. Our results show that the most profound changes in the ice sheets currently result from glacier dynamics at ocean margins.

Glacier-surge mechanisms promoted by a hydro-thermodynamic feedback to summer melt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunse, T.; Schellenberger, T.; Hagen, J. O.; Kääb, A.; Schuler, T. V.; Reijmer, C. H.

2015-02-01

Mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets currently accounts for two-thirds of the observed global sea-level rise and has accelerated since the 1990s, coincident with strong atmospheric warming in the polar regions. Here we present continuous GPS measurements and satellite synthetic-aperture-radar-based velocity maps from Basin-3, the largest drainage basin of the Austfonna ice cap, Svalbard. Our observations demonstrate strong links between surface-melt and multiannual ice-flow acceleration. We identify a hydro-thermodynamic feedback that successively mobilizes stagnant ice regions, initially frozen to their bed, thereby facilitating fast basal motion over an expanding area. By autumn 2012, successive destabilization of the marine terminus escalated in a surge of Basin-3. The resulting iceberg discharge of 4.2±1.6 Gt a-1 over the period April 2012 to May 2013 triples the calving loss from the entire ice cap. With the seawater displacement by the terminus advance accounted for, the related sea-level rise contribution amounts to 7.2±2.6 Gt a-1. This rate matches the annual ice-mass loss from the entire Svalbard archipelago over the period 2003-2008, highlighting the importance of dynamic mass loss for glacier mass balance and sea-level rise. The active role of surface melt, i.e. external forcing, contrasts with previous views of glacier surges as purely internal dynamic instabilities. Given sustained climatic warming and rising significance of surface melt, we propose a potential impact of the hydro-thermodynamic feedback on the future stability of ice-sheet regions, namely at the presence of a cold-based marginal ice plug that restricts fast drainage of inland ice. The possibility of large-scale dynamic instabilities such as the partial disintegration of ice sheets is acknowledged but not quantified in global projections of sea-level rise.

Anchor ice, seabed freezing, and sediment dynamics in shallow arctic seas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reimnitz, E.; Kempema, E.W.; Barnes, P.W.

1987-01-01

Diving investigations confirm previous circumstantial evidence of seafloor freezing and anchor ice accretion during freeze-up storms in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea. These related bottom types were found to be continuous from shore to 2 m depth and spotty to 4.5 m depth. The concretelike nature of frozen bottom, where present, should prohibit sediment transport by any conceivable wave or current regime during the freezing storm. But elsewhere, anchor ice lifts coarse material off the bottom and incorporates it into the ice canopy, thereby leading to significant ice rafting of shallow shelf sediment and likely sediment loss to the deep sea. -from Authors

Equatorial ground ice on Mars: Steady-state stability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mellon, Michael T.; Jakosky, Bruce M.; Postawko, Susan E.

1993-01-01

Current Martian equatorial surface temperatures are too warm for water ice to exist at the surface for any appreciable length of time before subliming into the atmosphere. Subsurface temperatures are generally warmer still and, despite the presence of a diffusive barrier of porous regolith material, it has been shown by Smoluchowski, Clifford and Hillel, and Fanale et al. that buried ground ice will also sublime and be lost to the atmosphere in a relatively short time. We investigate the behavior of this subliming subsurface ice and show that it is possible for ice to maintain at a steady-state depth, where sublimation and diffusive loss to the atmosphere is balanced by resupply from beneath by diffusion and recondensation of either a deeper buried ice deposits or ground water. We examine the behavior of equatorial ground ice with a numercial time-marching molecular diffusion model. In our model we allow for diffusion of water vapor through a porous regolith, variations in diffusivity and porosity with ice content, and recondensation of sublimed water vapor. A regolith containing considerable amounts of ice can still be very porous, allowing water vapor to diffuse up from deeper within the ice layer where temperatures are warmer due to the geothermal gradient. This vapor can then recondense nearer to the surface where ice had previously sublimed and been lost to the atmosphere. As a result we find that ice deposits migrate to find a steady-state depth, which represents a balance between diffusive loss to the atmosphere through the overlying porous regolith and diffusive resupply through a porous icy regolith below. This depth depends primarily on the long-term mean surface temperature and the nature of the geothermal gradient, and is independent of the ice-free porosity and the regolith diffusivity. Only the rate of loss of ground ice depends on diffusive properties.

Jakobshavn Isbrae, Greenland: DEMs, orthophotos, surface velocities, and ice loss derived from photogrammetric re-analysis of July 1985 repeat aerial photography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motyka, R.; Fahnestock, M.; Howat, I.; Truffer, M.; Brecher, H.; Luethi, M.

2008-12-01

Jakobshavn Isbrae drains about 7 % of the Greenland Ice Sheet and is the ice sheet's largest outlet glacier. Two sets of high elevation (~13,500 m), high resolution (2 m) aerial photographs of Jakobshavn Isbrae were obtained about two weeks apart during July 1985 (Fastook et al, 1995). These historic photo sets have become increasingly important for documenting and understanding the dynamic state of this outlet stream prior to the rapid retreat and massive ice loss that began in 1998 and continues today. The original photogrammetric analysis of this imagery is summarized in Fastook et al. (1995). They derived a coarse DEM (3 km grid spacing) covering an area of approximately 100 km x 100 km by interpolating several hundred positions determined manually from block-aerial triangulation. We have re-analyzed these photos sets using digital photogrammetry (BAE Socet Set©) and significantly improved DEM quality and resolution (20, 50, and 100 m grids). The DEMs were in turn used to produce high quality orthophoto mosaics. Comparing our 1985 DEM to a DEM we derived from May 2006 NASA ATM measurements showed a total ice volume loss of ~ 105 km3 over the lower drainage area; almost all of this loss has occurred since 1997. Ice stream surface velocities derived from the 1985 orthomosaics showed speeds of 20 m/d on the floating tongue, diminishing to 5 m/d at 50 km further upstream. Velocities have since nearly doubled along the ice stream during its current retreat. Fastook, J.L., H.H. Brecher, and T.J. Hughes, 1995. J.of Glaciol. 11 (137), 161-173.

Ice dynamics of Heinrich events: Insights and implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alley, R. B.; Parizek, B. R.; Anandakrishnan, S.

2017-12-01

Physical understanding of ice flow provides important constraints on Heinrich (H) events, which in turn provide lessons for ice dynamics and future sea-level change. Iceberg-rafted debris (IRD), the defining feature of H events, is a complex indicator; however, in cold climates with extensive marine-ending ice, increased IRD flux records ice-shelf loss. Ice shelves fed primarily by inflow from grounded ice experience net basal melting, giving sub-ice-sedimentation rather than open-ocean IRD. Ice-shelf loss has been observed recently in response to atmospheric warming increasing surface meltwater that wedged open crevasses (Larsen B), but also by break-off following thinning from warming of waters reaching the grounding line (Jakobshavn). The H events consistently occurred during cold times resulting from reduced North Atlantic overturning circulation ("conveyor"), but as argued by Marcott et al. (PNAS 2011), this was accompanied by delayed warming at grounding-line depths of the Hudson Strait ice stream, the source of the Heinrich layers, implicating oceanic control. As shown in a rich literature, additional considerations involving thermal state of the ice-stream bed, isostasy and probably other processes influenced why some reduced-conveyor events triggered H-events while others did not. Ice shelves, including the inferred Hudson Strait ice shelf, typically exist in high-salinity, cold waters produced by brine rejection from sea-ice formation, which are the coldest abundant waters in the world ocean. Thus, almost any change in air or ocean temperature, winds or currents can remove ice shelves, because "replacement" water masses are typically warmer. And, because ice shelves almost invariably slow flow of non-floating ice into the ocean, climatic perturbations to regions with ice shelves typically lead to sea-level rise, with important implications.

Greenland uplift and regional sea level changes from ICESat observations and GIA modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spada, G.; Ruggieri, G.; Sørensen, L. S.; Nielsen, K.; Melini, D.; Colleoni, F.

2012-06-01

We study the implications of a recently published mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), derived from repeated surface elevation measurements from NASA's ice cloud and land elevation satellite (ICESat) for the time period between 2003 and 2008. To characterize the effects of this new, high-resolution GrIS mass balance, we study the time-variations of various geophysical quantities in response to the current mass loss. They include vertical uplift and subsidence, geoid height variations, global patterns of sea level change (or fingerprints), and regional sea level variations along the coasts of Greenland. Long-wavelength uplifts and gravity variations in response to current or past ice thickness variations are obtained solving the sea level equation, which accounts for both the elastic and the viscoelastic components of deformation. To capture the short-wavelength components of vertical uplift in response to current ice mass loss, which is not resolved by satellite gravity observations, we have specifically developed a high-resolution regional elastic rebound (ER) model. The elastic component of vertical uplift is combined with estimates of the viscoelastic displacement fields associated with the process of glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA), according to a set of published ice chronologies and associated mantle rheological profiles. We compare the sensitivity of global positioning system (GPS) observations along the coasts of Greenland to the ongoing ER and GIA. In notable contrast with past reports, we show that vertical velocities obtained by GPS data from five stations with sufficiently long records and from one tide gauge at the GrIS margins can be reconciled with model predictions based on the ICE-5G deglaciation model and the ER associated with the new ICESat-derived mass balance.

Deicing and Anti-Icing Unite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

With funding from Glenn's Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program, Cox & Company, Inc., built an ice protection system that combines thermal anti-icing and mechanical deicing to keep airfoils (wings and other lifting surfaces) clear of ice. Cox's concept was to combine an anti-icing system with NASA's Electro-Mechanical Expulsion Deicing System, a mechanical deicer. The anti-icing element of this hybrid would reduce the aerodynamic losses associated with deicing systems. The Cox Low Power Ice Protection System is the first new aircraft ice protection system that has been approved by the Federal Aviation Administration for use on a business jet in 40 years. While the system is currently sized for Premier class aircraft, there are no apparent constraints prohibiting its use on aircraft of any size. The company is investigating further applications, such as adapting the system for unmanned aerial vehicles and other military aircraft.

Extensive Liquid Meltwater Storage in Firn Within the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forster, Richard R.; Box, Jason E.; vandenBroeke, Michael R.; Miege, Clement; Burgess, Evan W.; vanAngelen, Jan H.; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Koenig, Lora S.; Paden, John; Lewis, Cameron;

Oceanic and atmospheric forcing of Larsen C Ice-Shelf thinning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland, P. R.; Brisbourne, A.; Corr, H. F. J.; Mcgrath, Daniel; Purdon, K.; Paden, J.; Fricker, H. A.; Paolo, F. S.; Fleming, A.H.

2015-01-01

The catastrophic collapses of Larsen A and B ice shelves on the eastern Antarctic Peninsula have caused their tributary glaciers to accelerate, contributing to sea-level rise and freshening the Antarctic Bottom Water formed nearby. The surface of Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS), the largest ice shelf on the peninsula, is lowering. This could be caused by unbalanced ocean melting (ice loss) or enhanced firn melting and compaction (englacial air loss). Using a novel method to analyse eight radar surveys, this study derives separate estimates of ice and air thickness changes during a 15-year period. The uncertainties are considerable, but the primary estimate is that the surveyed lowering (0.066 ± 0.017 m yr−1) is caused by both ice loss (0.28 ± 0.18 m yr−1) and firn-air loss (0.037 ± 0.026 m yr−1). The ice loss is much larger than the air loss, but both contribute approximately equally to the lowering because the ice is floating. The ice loss could be explained by high basal melting and/or ice divergence, and the air loss by low surface accumulation or high surface melting and/or compaction. The primary estimate therefore requires that at least two forcings caused the surveyed lowering. Mechanisms are discussed by which LCIS stability could be compromised in the future. The most rapid pathways to collapse are offered by the ungrounding of LCIS from Bawden Ice Rise or ice-front retreat past a "compressive arch" in strain rates. Recent evidence suggests that either mechanism could pose an imminent risk.

Radar evidence for ice in lobate debris aprons in the mid-northern latitudes of Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plaut, Jeffrey J.; Safaeinili, Ali; Holt, John W.; Phillips, Roger J.; Head, James W.; Seu, Roberto; Putzig, Nathaniel E.; Frigeri, Alessandro

2009-01-01

Subsurface radar sounding data indicate that lobate debris aprons found in Deuteronilus Mensae in the mid-northern latitudes of Mars are composed predominantly of water ice. The position in time delay and the relatively low amount of signal loss of the apparent basal reflectors below the debris aprons indicate that aprons contain only a minor component of lithic material. The current presence of large ice masses at these latitudes has important implications for the climate evolution of Mars, and for future targets for in situ exploration.

The direct mechanical influence of sea ice state on ice sheet mass loss via iceberg mélange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robel, A.

2017-12-01

The interaction between sea ice and land ice has typically been considered as a large-scale exchange of moisture, heat and salinity through the ocean and atmosphere. However, recent observations from marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland indicate that the long-term decline of local sea ice cover has been accompanied by an increase in nearby iceberg calving and associated ice sheet mass loss. Near glacier calving fronts, sea ice binds icebergs together into an aggregate granular material known as iceberg mélange. Studies have hypothesized that mélange may suppress calving by exerting a mechanical buttressing force directly on the glacier terminus. Here, we show explicitly how sea ice thickness and concentration play a critical role in setting the material strength of mélange. To do so, we adapt a discrete element model to simulate mélange as a cohesive granular material. In these simulations, mélange laden with thick, dense, landfast sea ice can produce enough resistance to shut down calving at the terminus. When sea ice thins, mélange weakens, reducing the mechanical force of mélange on the glacier terminus, and increasing the likelihood of calving. We discuss whether longer periods of sea-ice-free conditions in winter may lead to a transition from currently slow calving, predominantly occurring in the summer, to rapid calving, occurring throughout the year. We also discuss the potential role of freshwater discharge in promoting sea ice formation in fjords, potentially strengthening mélange.

Arctic polynya and glacier interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, Laura

2013-04-01

Major uncertainties surround future estimates of sea level rise attributable to mass loss from the polar ice sheets and ice caps. Understanding changes across the Arctic is vital as major potential contributors to sea level, the Greenland Ice Sheet and the ice caps and glaciers of the Canadian Arctic archipelago, have experienced dramatic changes in recent times. Most ice mass loss is currently focused at a relatively small number of glacier catchments where ice acceleration, thinning and calving occurs at ocean margins. Research suggests that these tidewater glaciers accelerate and iceberg calving rates increase when warming ocean currents increase melt on the underside of floating glacier ice and when adjacent sea ice is removed causing a reduction in 'buttressing' back stress. Thus localised changes in ocean temperatures and in sea ice (extent and thickness) adjacent to major glacial catchments can impact hugely on the dynamics of, and hence mass lost from, terrestrial ice sheets and ice caps. Polynyas are areas of open water within sea ice which remain unfrozen for much of the year. They vary significantly in size (~3 km2 to > ~50,000 km2 in the Arctic), recurrence rates and duration. Despite their relatively small size, polynyas play a vital role in the heat balance of the polar oceans and strongly impact regional oceanography. Where polynyas develop adjacent to tidewater glaciers their influence on ocean circulation and water temperatures may play a major part in controlling subsurface ice melt rates by impacting on the water masses reaching the calving front. Areas of open water also play a significant role in controlling the potential of the atmosphere to carry moisture, as well as allowing heat exchange between the atmosphere and ocean, and so can influence accumulation on (and hence thickness of) glaciers and ice caps. Polynya presence and size also has implications for sea ice extent and therefore potentially the buttressing effect on neighbouring tidewater glaciers. The work presented discusses preliminary satellite observations of concurrent changes in the North Water and Nares Strait polynyas and neighbouring tidewater glaciers in Greenland and the Canadian Arctic where notable thinning and acceleration of glaciers have been observed. Also included is an outline of how these observations will fit into a much wider project on the topic involving ocean, atmosphere and sea ice modelling and short-term and longer-term in-situ measurements.

The Antarctica component of postglacial rebound model ICE-6G_C (VM5a) based on GPS positioning, exposure age dating of ice thicknesses, and relative sea level histories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Argus, Donald F.; Peltier, W. R.; Drummond, R.; Moore, Angelyn W.

2014-07-01

A new model of the deglaciation history of Antarctica over the past 25 kyr has been developed, which we refer to herein as ICE-6G_C (VM5a). This revision of its predecessor ICE-5G (VM2) has been constrained to fit all available geological and geodetic observations, consisting of: (1) the present day uplift rates at 42 sites estimated from GPS measurements, (2) ice thickness change at 62 locations estimated from exposure-age dating, (3) Holocene relative sea level histories from 12 locations estimated on the basis of radiocarbon dating and (4) age of the onset of marine sedimentation at nine locations along the Antarctic shelf also estimated on the basis of 14C dating. Our new model fits the totality of these data well. An additional nine GPS-determined site velocities are also estimated for locations known to be influenced by modern ice loss from the Pine Island Bay and Northern Antarctic Peninsula regions. At the 42 locations not influenced by modern ice loss, the quality of the fit of postglacial rebound model ICE-6G_C (VM5A) is characterized by a weighted root mean square residual of 0.9 mm yr-1. The Southern Antarctic Peninsula is inferred to be rising at 2 mm yr-1, requiring there to be less Holocene ice loss there than in the prior model ICE-5G (VM2). The East Antarctica coast is rising at approximately 1 mm yr-1, requiring ice loss from this region to have been small since Last Glacial Maximum. The Ellsworth Mountains, at the base of the Antarctic Peninsula, are inferred to be rising at 5-8 mm yr-1, indicating large ice loss from this area during deglaciation that is poorly sampled by geological data. Horizontal deformation of the Antarctic Plate is minor with two exceptions. First, O'Higgins, at the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, is moving southeast at a significant 2 mm yr-1 relative to the Antarctic Plate. Secondly, the margins of the Ronne and Ross Ice Shelves are moving horizontally away from the shelf centres at an approximate rate of 0.8 mm yr-1, in viscous response to the early Holocene unloading of ice from the current locations of the ice shelf centers. ICE-6G_C (VM5A) fits the horizontal observations well (wrms residual speed of 0.7 mm yr-1), there being no need to invoke any influence of lateral variation in mantle viscosity. ICE-6G_C (VM5A) differs in several respects from the recently published W12A model of Whitehouse et al. First, the upper-mantle viscosity in VM5a is 5 × 1020 Pa s, half that in W12A. The VM5a profile, which is identical to that inferred on the basis of the Fennoscandian relaxation spectrum, North American relative sea level histories and Earth rotation constraints, when coupled with the revised ICE-6G_C deglaciation history, fits all of the available constraints. Secondly, the net contribution of Antarctica ice loss to global sea level rise is 13.6 m, 2/3 greater than the 8 m in W12A. Thirdly, ice loss occurs quickly from 12 to 5 ka, and the contribution to global sea level rise during Meltwater Pulse 1B (11.5 ka) is large (5 m), consistent with sedimentation constraints from cores from the Antarctica ice shelf. Fourthly, in ICE-6G_C there is no ice gain in the East Antarctica interior, as there is in W12A. Finally, the new model of Antarctic deglaciation reconciles the global constraint upon the global mass loss during deglaciation provided by the Barbados record of relative sea level history when coupled with the Northern Hemisphere counterpart of this new model.

How robust is the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in isolation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, P. J.; Hay, S. E.; Blackport, R.; McCusker, K. E.; Oudar, T.

2017-12-01

It is now apparent that active dynamical coupling between the ocean and atmosphere determines a good deal of how Arctic sea-ice loss changes the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In coupled ocean-atmosphere models, Arctic sea-ice loss indirectly induces a 'mini' global warming and circulation changes that extend into the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. Ocean-atmosphere coupling also amplifies by about 50% Arctic free-tropospheric warming arising from sea-ice loss (Deser et al. 2015, 2016). The mechanisms at work and how to separate the response to sea-ice loss from the rest of the global warming process remain poorly understood. Different studies have used distinctive numerical approaches and coupled ocean-atmosphere models to address this problem. We put these studies on comparable footing using pattern scaling (Blackport and Kushner 2017) to separately estimate the part of the circulation response that scales with sea-ice loss in the absence of low-latitude warming from the part that scales with low-latitude warming in the absence of sea-ice loss. We consider well-sampled simulations from three different coupled ocean-atmosphere models (CESM1, CanESM2, CNRM-CM5), in which greenhouse warming and sea-ice loss are driven in different ways (sea ice albedo reduction/transient RCP8.5 forcing for CESM1, nudged sea ice/CO2 doubling for CanESM2, heat-flux forcing/constant RCP8.5-derived forcing for CNRM-CM5). Across these different simulations, surprisingly robust influences of Arctic sea-ice loss on atmospheric circulation can be diagnosed using pattern scaling. For boreal winter, the isolated sea-ice loss effect acts to increase warming in the North American Sub-Arctic, decrease warming of the Eurasian continent, enhance precipitation over the west coast of North America, and strengthen the Aleutian Low and the Siberian High. We will also discuss how Arctic free tropospheric warming might be enhanced via midlatitude ocean surface warming induced by sea-ice loss. Less robust is the part of the response that scales with low-latitude warming, which, depending on the model, can reinforce or cancel the response to sea-ice loss. The extent to which a "tug of war" exists between tropical and high-latitude influences on the general circulation might thus be model dependent.

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, Paul; Blackport, Russell

2017-04-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them. References: Blackport, R. and P. Kushner, 2017: Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system. J. Climate, in press. Blackport, R. and P. Kushner, 2016: The Transient and Equilibrium Climate Response to Rapid Summertime Sea Ice Loss in CCSM4. J. Climate, 29, 401-417, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0284.1.

Airframe Icing Research Gaps: NASA Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potapczuk, Mark

2009-01-01

qCurrent Airframe Icing Technology Gaps: Development of a full 3D ice accretion simulation model. Development of an improved simulation model for SLD conditions. CFD modeling of stall behavior for ice-contaminated wings/tails. Computational methods for simulation of stability and control parameters. Analysis of thermal ice protection system performance. Quantification of 3D ice shape geometric characteristics Development of accurate ground-based simulation of SLD conditions. Development of scaling methods for SLD conditions. Development of advanced diagnostic techniques for assessment of tunnel cloud conditions. Identification of critical ice shapes for aerodynamic performance degradation. Aerodynamic scaling issues associated with testing scale model ice shape geometries. Development of altitude scaling methods for thermal ice protections systems. Development of accurate parameter identification methods. Measurement of stability and control parameters for an ice-contaminated swept wing aircraft. Creation of control law modifications to prevent loss of control during icing encounters. 3D ice shape geometries. Collection efficiency data for ice shape geometries. SLD ice shape data, in-flight and ground-based, for simulation verification. Aerodynamic performance data for 3D geometries and various icing conditions. Stability and control parameter data for iced aircraft configurations. Thermal ice protection system data for simulation validation.

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, P. J.; Blackport, R.

2016-12-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them.

Diverse landscapes beneath Pine Island Glacier influence ice flow.

PubMed

Bingham, Robert G; Vaughan, David G; King, Edward C; Davies, Damon; Cornford, Stephen L; Smith, Andrew M; Arthern, Robert J; Brisbourne, Alex M; De Rydt, Jan; Graham, Alastair G C; Spagnolo, Matteo; Marsh, Oliver J; Shean, David E

2017-11-20

The retreating Pine Island Glacier (PIG), West Antarctica, presently contributes ~5-10% of global sea-level rise. PIG's retreat rate has increased in recent decades with associated thinning migrating upstream into tributaries feeding the main glacier trunk. To project future change requires modelling that includes robust parameterisation of basal traction, the resistance to ice flow at the bed. However, most ice-sheet models estimate basal traction from satellite-derived surface velocity, without a priori knowledge of the key processes from which it is derived, namely friction at the ice-bed interface and form drag, and the resistance to ice flow that arises as ice deforms to negotiate bed topography. Here, we present high-resolution maps, acquired using ice-penetrating radar, of the bed topography across parts of PIG. Contrary to lower-resolution data currently used for ice-sheet models, these data show a contrasting topography across the ice-bed interface. We show that these diverse subglacial landscapes have an impact on ice flow, and present a challenge for modelling ice-sheet evolution and projecting global sea-level rise from ice-sheet loss.

Remarkable separability of the circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss and greenhouse gas forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCusker, K. E.; Kushner, P. J.; Fyfe, J. C.; Sigmond, M.; Kharin, V. V.; Bitz, C. M.

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice loss has an important effect on local climate through increases in ocean to atmosphere heat flux and associated feedbacks, and may influence midlatitude climate by changing large-scale circulation that can enhance or counter changes that are due to greenhouse gases. The extent to which climate change in a warming world can be understood as greenhouse gas-induced changes that are modulated by Arctic sea ice loss depends on how additive the responses to the separate influences are. Here we use a novel sea ice nudging methodology in the Canadian Earth System Model, which has a fully coupled ocean, to isolate the effects of Arctic sea ice loss and doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) to determine their additivity and sensitivity to mean state. We find that the separate effects of Arctic sea ice loss and doubled CO2 are remarkably additive and relatively insensitive to mean climate state. This separability is evident in several thermodynamic and dynamic fields throughout most of the year, from hemispheric to synoptic scales. The extent to which the regional response to sea ice loss sometimes agrees with and sometimes cancels the response to CO2 is quantified. In this model, Arctic sea ice loss enhances the CO2-induced surface air temperature changes nearly everywhere and zonal wind changes over the Pacific sector, whereas sea ice loss counters CO2-induced sea level pressure changes nearly everywhere over land and zonal wind changes over the Atlantic sector. This separability of the response to Arctic sea ice loss from the response to CO2 doubling gives credence to the body of work in which Arctic sea ice loss is isolated from the forcing that modified it, and might provide a means to better interpret the diverse array of modeling and observational studies of Arctic change and influence.

The safety band of Antarctic ice shelves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fürst, Johannes Jakob; Durand, Gaël; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Tavard, Laure; Rankl, Melanie; Braun, Matthias; Gagliardini, Olivier

2016-05-01

The floating ice shelves along the seaboard of the Antarctic ice sheet restrain the outflow of upstream grounded ice. Removal of these ice shelves, as shown by past ice-shelf recession and break-up, accelerates the outflow, which adds to sea-level rise. A key question in predicting future outflow is to quantify the extent of calving that might precondition other dynamic consequences and lead to loss of ice-shelf restraint. Here we delineate frontal areas that we label as `passive shelf ice’ and that can be removed without major dynamic implications, with contrasting results across the continent. The ice shelves in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas have limited or almost no `passive’ portion, which implies that further retreat of current ice-shelf fronts will yield important dynamic consequences. This region is particularly vulnerable as ice shelves have been thinning at high rates for two decades and as upstream grounded ice rests on a backward sloping bed, a precondition to marine ice-sheet instability. In contrast to these ice shelves, Larsen C Ice Shelf, in the Weddell Sea, exhibits a large `passive’ frontal area, suggesting that the imminent calving of a vast tabular iceberg will be unlikely to instantly produce much dynamic change.

Comparative Study of Three Data Assimilation Methods for Ice Sheet Model Initialisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosbeux, Cyrille; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Gagliardini, Olivier

2015-04-01

The current global warming has direct consequences on ice-sheet mass loss contributing to sea level rise. This loss is generally driven by an acceleration of some coastal outlet glaciers and reproducing these mechanisms is one of the major issues in ice-sheet and ice flow modelling. The construction of an initial state, as close as possible to current observations, is required as a prerequisite before producing any reliable projection of the evolution of ice-sheets. For this step, inverse methods are often used to infer badly known or unknown parameters. For instance, the adjoint inverse method has been implemented and applied with success by different authors in different ice flow models in order to infer the basal drag [ Schafer et al., 2012; Gillet-chauletet al., 2012; Morlighem et al., 2010]. Others data fields, such as ice surface and bedrock topography, are easily measurable with more or less uncertainty but only locally along tracks and interpolated on finer model grid. All these approximations lead to errors on the data elevation model and give rise to an ill-posed problem inducing non-physical anomalies in flux divergence [Seroussi et al, 2011]. A solution to dissipate these divergences of flux is to conduct a surface relaxation step at the expense of the accuracy of the modelled surface [Gillet-Chaulet et al., 2012]. Other solutions, based on the inversion of ice thickness and basal drag were proposed [Perego et al., 2014; Pralong & Gudmundsson, 2011]. In this study, we create a twin experiment to compare three different assimilation algorithms based on inverse methods and nudging to constrain the bedrock friction and the bedrock elevation: (i) cyclic inversion of friction parameter and bedrock topography using adjoint method, (ii) cycles coupling inversion of friction parameter using adjoint method and nudging of bedrock topography, (iii) one step inversion of both parameters with adjoint method. The three methods show a clear improvement in parameters knowledge leading to a significant reduction of flux divergence of the model before forecasting.

West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat driven by Holocene warm water incursions

PubMed Central

Hillenbrand, Claus-Dieter; Smith, James A.; Hodell, David A.; Greaves, Mervyn; Poole, Christopher R.; Kender, Sev; Williams, Mark; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Jernas, Patrycja E.; Klages, Johann P.; Roberts, Stephen J.; Gohl, Karsten; Larter, Robert D.; Kuhn, Gerhard

2017-01-01

Glaciological and oceanographic observations coupled with numerical models show that warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) upwelling onto the West Antarctic continental shelf causes melting of the undersides of floating ice shelves. Because these ice shelves buttress glaciers feeding into them, their ocean-induced thinning is driving Antarctic ice-sheet loss today. Here we present the first multi-proxy data based reconstruction of variability in CDW inflow to the Amundsen Sea sector, the most vulnerable part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, during the last 11,000 years. The chemical composition of foraminifer shells and benthic foraminifer assemblages in marine sediments indicate that enhanced CDW upwelling, controlled by the latitudinal position of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds, forced deglaciation of this sector both until 7,500 years ago, when an ice-shelf collapse may have caused rapid ice-sheet thinning further upstream, and since the 1940s. These results increase confidence in the predictive capability of current ice-sheet models. PMID:28682333

The Effect of Ice Formations on Propeller Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neel, C. B., Jr.; Bright, L. G.

1950-01-01

Measurements of propeller efficiency loss due to ice formation are supplemented by an analysis to establish the magnitude of efficiency losses to be anticipated during flight in icing conditions. The measurements were made during flight in natural icing conditions; whereas the analysis consisted of an investIgation of changes in blade-section aerodynamic characteristics caused by ice formation and the resulting propeller efficiency changes. Agreement in the order of magnitude of eff 1- ciency losses to be expected is obtained between measured and analytical results. The results indicate that, in general, efficiency losses can be expected to be less than 10 percent; whereas maximum losses, which will be encountered only rarely, may be as high as 15 or 20 percent. Reported. losses larger than 15 or 20 percent, based on reductions in airplane performance, probably are due to ice accretions on other parts of the airplane. Blade-element theory is used in the analytical treatment, and calculations are made to show the degree to which the aerodynamic characteristics of a blade section. must be altered to produce various propeller efficiency losses. The effects of ice accretions on airfoil-section characteristics at subcritical speeds and their influence on drag-divergence Mach number are examined, and. the attendant maximum efficiency losses are computed. The effect of kinetic heating on the radial extent of ice formation is considered, and its influence on required length of blade heating shoes is discussed. It is demonstrated how the efficiency loss resulting from an icing encounter is influenced by the decisions of the pilot in adjusting the engine and propeller controls.

Long-term monitoring of glacier dynamics of Fleming Glacier after the disintegration of Wordie Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedl, Peter; Seehaus, Thorsten; Wendt, Anja; Braun, Matthias

2017-04-01

The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the world`s most affected regions by Climate Change. Dense and long time series of remote sensing data enable detailed studies of the rapid glaciological changes in this area. We present results of a study on Fleming Glacier, which was the major tributary glacier of former Wordie Ice Shelf, located at the south-western side of the Antarctic Peninsula. Since the ice shelf disintegrated in a series of events starting in the 1970s, only disconnected tidewater glaciers have remained today. As a reaction to the loss of the buttressing force of the ice shelf, Fleming Glacier accelerated and dynamically thinned. However, all previous studies conducted at Wordie Bay covered only relatively short investigation periods and ended in 2008 the latest. Hence it was not well known how long the process of adaption to the changing boundary conditions exactly lasts and how it is characterized in detail. We provide long time series (1994 - 2016) of glaciological parameters (i.e. ice extent, velocity, grounding line position, ice elevation) for Fleming Glacier obtained from multi-mission remote sensing data. For this purpose large datasets of previously active (e.g. ERS, Envisat, ALOS PALSAR, Radarsat-1) as well as currently recording SAR sensors (e.g. Sentinel-1, TerraSAR-X, TanDEM-X) were processed and combined with data from other sources (e.g. optical images, laser altimeter and ice thickness data). The high temporal resolution of our dataset enables us to present a detailed history of 22 years of glacial dynamics at Fleming Glacier after the disintegration of Wordie Ice Shelf. We found strong evidence for a rapid grounding line retreat of up to 13 km between 2008 and 2011, which led to a further amplification of dynamic ice thinning. Today Fleming Glacier seems to be far away from approaching a new equilibrium. Our data show that the current glacier dynamics of Fleming Glacier are not primarily controlled by the loss of the ice shelf anymore, but by other sources of external forcing, such as oceanic warming.

Effects of Orbital Evolution on Lunar Ice Stability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siegler, M. A.; Bills, B. G.; Paige, D. A.

2010-12-01

Permanently shadowed regions of the Moon have complex thermal histories that influence their ability to act as traps for water ice. Though many areas are now cold enough that surface water ice would be stable from sublimation losses for billions of years, this has not always been the case. Here we examine the effects of the long term orbital and rotational evolution of the Moon on polar thermal history, volatile stability and mobility. Using data from the Diviner Lunar Radiometer, aboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, we validate models of the current temperature in the lunar polar region. This model includes the effects of topography, scattering, re-radiation, and regolith thermal properties. Then, integrating the effects of tidal torques backward from the present, we reconstruct past orbital and rotational states and use them as input to the thermal model to estimate the thermal environment of the distant lunar past. The rate of tidal evolution of the lunar orbit is quite uncertain, thus use orbital semimajor axis as independent variable, rather than time, in the reconstruction. The orbital integration results in a high obliquity period which occurred when the Moon was at about half its present distance from the Earth. This period, which caused half a year of direct sunlight on the polar region, is due to a transition between two Cassini States, spin-orbit configurations resulting from internal dissipation within the Moon. Since this event, the tilt of the Moon (with respect to the ecliptic) has slowly decreased to the current 1.54 degree. Prior to this transition, due to the relatively small Earth-Moon distance, large amplitude variations in the inclination of the orbital plain were also important. We examine the stability of polar volatiles in response to the evolving lunar orbit, and apply simple models to describe when in the Moon’s history supplied volatiles would have been most likely to be buried by thermal diffusion. When temperatures are much below 95K, ice delivered to the lunar surface is immobile in terms of thermal diffusion. Unless buried on relatively short time scales, most of the current polar environments are currently too cold to efficiently drive ice downward along thermal gradients and protect it from other surface loss processes. In the past, these same locations went through “ice trap” periods, where they were warm enough that supplied volatiles might have been buried by on short time scales, but cold enough that they would not be lost quickly, supplying the subsurface with volatiles that could still be stable today. The Cassini state transition was so warm that ice would either have been driven out into space, or possibly deep into the lunar subsurface. If a present lunar cold trap is ice bearing, that ice is likely to be representative of these “ice trap” periods and have little to do with the early Moon. As each current cold trap had a period where it was most efficient at thermal ice burial, the location of current ground ice on the Moon might also constrain the obliquity and time at which it was deposited. The presence of ice in a specific crater may imply either an increase in water flux or large comet impact during that period.

Reconstructing decades of glacial mass loss in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noël, Brice; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Lhermitte, Stef; Wouters, Bert; van den Broeke, Michiel

2017-04-01

The Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) comprises multiple small glaciers and ice caps mostly concentrated on Ellesmere and Baffin Islands situated in the north (NCAA) and south (SCAA) of the archipelago, respectively. Because they cover a relatively small area and show complex geometries, current regional climate models, generally running at 5 to 20 km horizontal resolution, struggle to accurately resolve surface mass change patterns. Here, we present a 58-year (1958-2015) reconstruction of daily, 1 km surface mass balance (SMB) of the CAA, statistically downscaled from the output of the regional climate model RACMO2.3 at 11 km. By correcting for biases in elevation and ice albedo, the downscaling method significantly improves mass loss estimates over narrow outlet glaciers and isolated ice fields through better resolved marginal meltwater runoff. During the last two decades, CAA glaciers have experienced warmer conditions (+1.1°C) resulting in continued mass loss. NCAA and SCAA mass loss accounted for -24.7 ± 18.0 Gt yr-1 and -21.9 ± 8.2 Gt yr-1 respectively, almost tripling (-8.4 Gt yr-1) and doubling (-11.8 Gt yr-1) the 1958-1995 average. Following the recent warming, enhanced meltwater production reduced the refreezing capacity of inland firn layers by about 6%. While the interior of NCAA ice caps can still buffer most of the additional melt, the lack of a perennial firn area over low-lying SCAA glaciers caused uninterrupted mass loss since the 1980s, which, in the absence of significant refreezing capacity, indicates inevitable disappearance of these highly sensitive glaciers.

Mass budget of the glaciers and ice caps of the Queen Elizabeth Islands, Canada, from 1991 to 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millan, Romain; Mouginot, Jeremie; Rignot, Eric

2017-02-01

Recent studies indicate that the glaciers and ice caps in Queen Elizabeth Islands (QEI), Canada have experienced an increase in ice mass loss during the last two decades, but the contribution of ice dynamics to this loss is not well known. We present a comprehensive mapping of ice velocity using a suite of satellite data from year 1991 to 2015, combined with ice thickness data from NASA Operation IceBridge, to calculate ice discharge. We find that ice discharge increased significantly after 2011 in Prince of Wales Icefield, maintained or decreased in other sectors, whereas glacier surges have little impact on long-term trends in ice discharge. During 1991-2005, the QEI mass loss averaged 6.3 ± 1.1 Gt yr-1, 52% from ice discharge and the rest from surface mass balance (SMB). During 2005-2014, the mass loss from ice discharge averaged 3.5 ± 0.2 Gt yr-1 (10%) versus 29.6 ± 3.0 Gt yr-1 (90%) from SMB. SMB processes therefore dominate the QEI mass balance, with ice dynamics playing a significant role only in a few basins.

Dynamic Inland Propagation of Thinning Due to Ice Loss at the Margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Wei Li; Li, Jun J.; Zwally, H. Jay

2012-01-01

Mass-balance analysis of the Greenland ice sheet based on surface elevation changes observed by the European Remote-sensing Satellite (ERS) (1992-2002) and Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) (2003-07) indicates that the strongly increased mass loss at lower elevations (<2000 m) of the ice sheet, as observed during 2003-07, appears to induce interior ice thinning at higher elevations. In this paper, we perform a perturbation experiment with a three-dimensional anisotropic ice-flow model (AIF model) to investigate this upstream propagation. Observed thinning rates in the regions below 2000m elevation are used as perturbation inputs. The model runs with perturbation for 10 years show that the extensive mass loss at the ice-sheet margins does in fact cause interior thinning on short timescales (i.e. decadal). The modeled pattern of thinning over the ice sheet agrees with the observations, which implies that the strong mass loss since the early 2000s at low elevations has had a dynamic impact on the entire ice sheet. The modeling results also suggest that even if the large mass loss at the margins stopped, the interior ice sheet would continue thinning for 300 years and would take thousands of years for full dynamic recovery.

Economic Valuation of Ecosystem Goods and Services in a Melting Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Garra, T.

2014-12-01

The Arctic region is composed of unique ecosystems that provide a range of goods and services to local and global populations. However, Arctic sea-ice is melting at an unprecedented rate, threatening many of these ecosystems and the services they provide. Yet as the ice melts and certain goods and services are lost, other resources such as oil and minerals will become accessible. The question is: how do the losses compare with the opportunities? And how are the losses and potential gains likely to be distributed? To address these questions, this study provides a preliminary assessment of the quantity, distribution and economic value of the ecosystem services (ES) provided by Arctic ecosystems, both now and in the future given a scenario of sure climate change. Using biophysical and economic data from existing studies (and some primary data), preliminary estimates indicate that the Arctic currently provides 357m/yr (in 2014 US) in subsistence hunting value to local communities, of which reindeer/caribou comprise 83%. Reindeer herding provides 110m/yr to Arctic communities. Interestingly, 'non-use (existence/cultural) values' associated with Arctic species are very high at 11bn/yr to members of Arctic states. The Arctic also provides ES that accrue to the global community: oil resources (North Slope; 5bn profits in 2013), commercial fisheries ( 515mn/yr) and most importantly, climate regulation services. Recent models (Whiteman; Euskirchen) estimate that the loss of climate regulation services provided by Arctic ice will cost 200 - 500bn/yr, a value which dwarfs all others. Assuming no change in atmospheric temperature compared to 2014, the net present value of the Arctic by 2050 (1.4% discount rate) comes to over $9 trillion. However, given Wang and Overland (2009) predictions of ice-free summers by 2037, we expect many of these benefits will be lost. For example, it is fairly well-established that endemic species, such as polar bears, will decline with sea-ice melt. Estimation of such losses is ongoing for the present study. Increased opportunities include oil and mineral extraction, and increased shipping. The economic values associated with these potential opportunities (including environmental and social costs) are currently being assessed for the present study.

Large Fluctuations in Speed on Jakobshavn Isbrae, Greenland

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joughin, Ian; Abdalati, Waleed; Fahnestock, Mark

2003-01-01

We have assembled an 18-year velocity record for Jakobshavn Isbrae, Greenland. From a 1985 speed of approx. 7000 m/yr, the glacier had slowed by approx. 1000 m/ yr in 1992, which coincided with independently observed thickening in the early 1990s . The glacier then sped up by approx. 4000 m/yr between 1997 and 2000, during which time other measurements show rapid thinning . From 2000 to 2003, the glacier s floating ice tongue almost entirely disintegrated, as speed increased to 12,600 m/yr. If the retreat of the ice tongue caused the acceleration, then similar losses of floating ice tongues since the Little Ice Age may explain the current rapid thinning observed for many of Greenland s outlet glaciers.

A balanced water layer concept for subglacial hydrology in large scale ice sheet models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goeller, S.; Thoma, M.; Grosfeld, K.; Miller, H.

2012-12-01

There is currently no doubt about the existence of a wide-spread hydrological network under the Antarctic ice sheet, which lubricates the ice base and thus leads to increased ice velocities. Consequently, ice models should incorporate basal hydrology to obtain meaningful results for future ice dynamics and their contribution to global sea level rise. Here, we introduce the balanced water layer concept, covering two prominent subglacial hydrological features for ice sheet modeling on a continental scale: the evolution of subglacial lakes and balance water fluxes. We couple it to the thermomechanical ice-flow model RIMBAY and apply it to a synthetic model domain inspired by the Gamburtsev Mountains, Antarctica. In our experiments we demonstrate the dynamic generation of subglacial lakes and their impact on the velocity field of the overlaying ice sheet, resulting in a negative ice mass balance. Furthermore, we introduce an elementary parametrization of the water flux-basal sliding coupling and reveal the predominance of the ice loss through the resulting ice streams against the stabilizing influence of less hydrologically active areas. We point out, that established balance flux schemes quantify these effects only partially as their ability to store subglacial water is lacking.

A tale of two polar bear populations: Ice habitat, harvest, and body condition

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rode, Karyn D.; Peacock, Elizabeth; Taylor, Mitchell K.; Stirling, Ian; Born, Erik W.; Laidre, Kristin L.; Wiig, Øystein

2012-01-01

One of the primary mechanisms by which sea ice loss is expected to affect polar bears is via reduced body condition and growth resulting from reduced access to prey. To date, negative effects of sea ice loss have been documented for two of 19 recognized populations. Effects of sea ice loss on other polar bear populations that differ in harvest rate, population density, and/or feeding ecology have been assumed, but empirical support, especially quantitative data on population size, demography, and/or body condition spanning two or more decades, have been lacking. We examined trends in body condition metrics of captured bears and relationships with summertime ice concentration between 1977 and 2010 for the Baffin Bay (BB) and Davis Strait (DS) polar bear populations. Polar bears in these regions occupy areas with annual sea ice that has decreased markedly starting in the 1990s. Despite differences in harvest rate, population density, sea ice concentration, and prey base, polar bears in both populations exhibited positive relationships between body condition and summertime sea ice cover during the recent period of sea ice decline. Furthermore, females and cubs exhibited relationships with sea ice that were not apparent during the earlier period (1977–1990s) when sea ice loss did not occur. We suggest that declining body condition in BB may be a result of recent declines in sea ice habitat. In DS, high population density and/or sea ice loss, may be responsible for the declines in body condition.

Multimodel Evidence for an Atmospheric Circulation Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the CMIP5 Future Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zappa, G.; Pithan, F.; Shepherd, T. G.

2018-01-01

Previous single-model experiments have found that Arctic sea ice loss can influence the atmospheric circulation. To evaluate this process in a multimodel ensemble, a novel methodology is here presented and applied to infer the influence of Arctic sea ice loss in the CMIP5 future projections. Sea ice influence is estimated by comparing the circulation response in the RCP8.5 scenario against the circulation response to sea surface warming and CO2 increase inferred from the AMIPFuture and AMIP4xCO2 experiments, where sea ice is unperturbed. Multimodel evidence of the impact of sea ice loss on midlatitude atmospheric circulation is identified in late winter (January-March), when the sea ice-related surface heat flux perturbation is largest. Sea ice loss acts to suppress the projected poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet, to increase surface pressure in northern Siberia, and to lower it in North America. These features are consistent with previous single-model studies, and the present results indicate that they are robust to model formulation.

Identifying Climate Model Teleconnection Mechanisms Between Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Mid-Latitude Winter Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravitz, B.; Mills, C.; Rasch, P. J.; Wang, H.; Yoon, J. H.

2016-12-01

The role of Arctic amplification, including observed decreases in sea ice concentration, thickness, and extent, with potential for exciting downstream atmospheric responses in the mid-latitudes, is a timely issue. We identify the role of the regionality of autumn sea ice loss on downstream mid-latitude responses using engineering methodologies adapted to climate modeling, which allow for multiple Arctic sea regions to be perturbed simultaneously. We evaluate downstream responses in various climate fields (e.g., temperature, precipitation, cloud cover) associated with perturbations in the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas and the Kara/Barents Seas. Simulations suggest that the United States response is primarily linked to sea ice changes in the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas, whereas Eurasian response is primarily due to Kara/Barents sea ice coverage changes. Downstream effects are most prominent approximately 6-10 weeks after the initial perturbation (sea ice loss). Our findings suggest that winter mid-latitude storms (connected to the so-called "Polar Vortex") are linked to sea ice loss in particular areas, implying that further sea ice loss associated with climate change will exacerbate these types of extreme events.

Multimodel Evidence for an Atmospheric Circulation Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the CMIP5 Future Projections.

PubMed

Zappa, G; Pithan, F; Shepherd, T G

2018-01-28

Previous single-model experiments have found that Arctic sea ice loss can influence the atmospheric circulation. To evaluate this process in a multimodel ensemble, a novel methodology is here presented and applied to infer the influence of Arctic sea ice loss in the CMIP5 future projections. Sea ice influence is estimated by comparing the circulation response in the RCP8.5 scenario against the circulation response to sea surface warming and CO 2 increase inferred from the AMIPFuture and AMIP4xCO2 experiments, where sea ice is unperturbed. Multimodel evidence of the impact of sea ice loss on midlatitude atmospheric circulation is identified in late winter (January-March), when the sea ice-related surface heat flux perturbation is largest. Sea ice loss acts to suppress the projected poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet, to increase surface pressure in northern Siberia, and to lower it in North America. These features are consistent with previous single-model studies, and the present results indicate that they are robust to model formulation.

Emperor Penguins Breeding on Iceshelves

PubMed Central

Fretwell, Peter T.; Trathan, Phil N.; Wienecke, Barbara; Kooyman, Gerald L.

2014-01-01

We describe a new breeding behaviour discovered in emperor penguins; utilizing satellite and aerial-survey observations four emperor penguin breeding colonies have been recorded as existing on ice-shelves. Emperors have previously been considered as a sea-ice obligate species, with 44 of the 46 colonies located on sea-ice (the other two small colonies are on land). Of the colonies found on ice-shelves, two are newly discovered, and these have been recorded on shelves every season that they have been observed, the other two have been recorded both on ice-shelves and sea-ice in different breeding seasons. We conduct two analyses; the first using synthetic aperture radar data to assess why the largest of the four colonies, for which we have most data, locates sometimes on the shelf and sometimes on the sea-ice, and find that in years where the sea-ice forms late, the colony relocates onto the ice-shelf. The second analysis uses a number of environmental variables to test the habitat marginality of all emperor penguin breeding sites. We find that three of the four colonies reported in this study are in the most northerly, warmest conditions where sea-ice is often sub-optimal. The emperor penguin’s reliance on sea-ice as a breeding platform coupled with recent concerns over changed sea-ice patterns consequent on regional warming, has led to their designation as “near threatened” in the IUCN red list. Current climate models predict that future loss of sea-ice around the Antarctic coastline will negatively impact emperor numbers; recent estimates suggest a halving of the population by 2052. The discovery of this new breeding behaviour at marginal sites could mitigate some of the consequences of sea-ice loss; potential benefits and whether these are permanent or temporary need to be considered and understood before further attempts are made to predict the population trajectory of this iconic species. PMID:24416381

Reduced probability of ice-free summers for 1.5 °C compared to 2 °C warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jahn, Alexandra

2018-05-01

Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly with increasing global temperatures. However, it is largely unknown how Arctic summer sea-ice impacts would vary under the 1.5 °C Paris target compared to scenarios with greater warming. Using the Community Earth System Model, I show that constraining warming to 1.5 °C rather than 2.0 °C reduces the probability of any summer ice-free conditions by 2100 from 100% to 30%. It also reduces the late-century probability of an ice cover below the 2012 record minimum from 98% to 55%. For warming above 2 °C, frequent ice-free conditions can be expected, potentially for several months per year. Although sea-ice loss is generally reversible for decreasing temperatures, sea ice will only recover to current conditions if atmospheric CO2 is reduced below present-day concentrations. Due to model biases, these results provide a lower bound on summer sea-ice impacts, but clearly demonstrate the benefits of constraining warming to 1.5 °C.

On the Revealing Firsthand Probing of Ocean-Ice-Atmosphere Interactions off Sabrina Coast During NBP1402

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huber, B. A.; Orsi, A. H.; Zielinski, N. J.; Durkin, W. J., IV; Clark, P.; Wiederwohl, C. L.; Rosenberg, M. A.; Gwyther, D.; Greenbaum, J. S.; Lavoie, C.; Shevenell, A.; Leventer, A.; Blankenship, D. D.; Gulick, S. P. S.; Domack, E. W.

2014-12-01

Diverse interactions of winds, currents and ice around Antarctica dictate how, where and when the world's densest waters form and massive floating ice shelves and glaciers melt, as well as control sea surface gas exchange and primary productivity. Compelled by recent rate estimates of East Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss, we contrast the paths and mixing histories of oceanic waters reaching the continental ice edge off the Sabrina and Adelie coasts relying on the unique set of synoptic shipboard measurements from NBP1402 (swath bathymetry, ADCP, underway CTD). Analysis of historical hydrography and sea ice concentration fields within the Mertz Polynya indicates the apparent effect of evolving ocean-ice-atmosphere interactions on the characteristics of local Shelf Water (SW) sources to current outflow of newly formed Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). A polynya dominated water mass structure similar to that observed off the Adelie Coast before the removal of the Mertz Ice Tongue was expected to the west of the Dalton Ice Tongue (DIT). However, we found no evidence of dense SW off Sabrina Coast, which may lessen the region's preconceived influence to global meridional overturning. Present sea ice production within the eastern Dalton Polynya is overshadowed by freshwater input to relatively stable interior upper waters. The Antarctic Coastal Current (ACoC) picks up distinct meltwater contributions along the DIT western flank and in front of the Moscow University Ice Shelf (MUIS) and Totten Glacier (TG). Unlike over other highly influential margins to global sea level rise, there is no evidence of local cross-shelf inflow and mixing of warm Circumpolar Deep Water. Relatively cold thermocline waters from the continental slope enter the eastern trough off Sabrina Coast, and they are swiftly steered poleward by complex underlying topography. Meltwater export from beneath the MUIS and TG is observed at newly discovered trenches that effectively constrain sub-cavity inflow to low salinity near-freezing waters drawn from intermediate levels of the adjacent westward flowing ACoC. Winds, currents and ice interactions observed off Sabrina Coast during NBP1402 are most likely widespread, in view of reported decadal freshening of upper waters over the Antarctic continental shelf and their localized AABW outflows.

Evaluating Antarctic sea ice predictability at seasonal to interannual timescales in global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchi, Sylvain; Fichefet, Thierry; Goosse, Hugues; Zunz, Violette; Tietsche, Steffen; Day, Jonny; Hawkins, Ed

2016-04-01

Unlike the rapid sea ice losses reported in the Arctic, satellite observations show an overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extent over recent decades. Although many processes have already been suggested to explain this positive trend, it remains the subject of current investigations. Understanding the evolution of the Antarctic sea ice turns out to be more complicated than for the Arctic for two reasons: the lack of observations and the well-known biases of climate models in the Southern Ocean. Irrespective of those issues, another one is to determine whether the positive trend in sea ice extent would have been predictable if adequate observations and models were available some decades ago. This study of Antarctic sea ice predictability is carried out using 6 global climate models (HadGEM1.2, MPI-ESM-LR, GFDL CM3, EC-Earth V2, MIROC 5.2 and ECHAM 6-FESOM) which are all part of the APPOSITE project. These models are used to perform hindcast simulations in a perfect model approach. The predictive skill is estimated thanks to the PPP (Potential Prognostic Predictability) and the ACC (Anomaly Correlation Coefficient). The former is a measure of the uncertainty of the ensemble while the latter assesses the accuracy of the prediction. These two indicators are applied to different variables related to sea ice, in particular the total sea ice extent and the ice edge location. This first model intercomparison study about sea ice predictability in the Southern Ocean aims at giving a general overview of Antarctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models.

The De-Icing Comparison Experiment (D-ICE): A campaign for improving data retention rates of radiometric measurements under icing conditions in cold regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, C. J.; Morris, S. M.

2017-12-01

Longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes are fundamental quantities regularly observed globally using broadband radiometers. In cold climates, frost, rime, snow and ice (collectively, "icing") frequently builds up on sensor windows, contaminating measurements. Since icing occurs under particular meteorological conditions, associated data losses constitutes a climatological bias. Furthermore, the signal caused by ice is difficult to distinguish from that of clouds, hampering efforts to identify contaminated from real data in post-processing. Because of the sensitivity of radiometers to internal temperature instabilities, there are limitations to using heat as a de-icing method. The magnitude of this problem is indicated by the large number of research institutions and commercial vendors that have developed various de-icing strategies. The D-ICE campaign has been designed to bring together a large number of currently available systems to quantitatively evaluate and compare ice-migration strategies and also to characterize the potentially adverse effects of the techniques themselves. For D-ICE, a variety of automated approaches making use of ventilation, heating, modified housings and alcohol spray are being evaluated alongside standard units operating with only the regularly scheduled manual cleaning by human operators at the NOAA Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) station in Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska. Previous experience within the BSRN community suggests that aspiration of ambient air alone may be sufficient to maintain ice-free radiometers without increasing measurement uncertainty during icing conditions, forming the main guiding hypothesis of the experiment. Icing on the sensors is monitored visually using cameras recording images every 15 minutes and quantitatively using an icing probe and met station. The effects of applied heat on infrared loss in pyranometers will be analyzed and the integrated effect of icing on monthly averages will be assessed by comparing ice-mitigated and unmitigated systems. The project is a community effort led by NOAA in collaboration with the BSRN Cold Climates Issues Working Group (CCIWG) in partnership with industry representatives and research institutes. The campaign will operate for a full annual cycle from August 2017 through 2018.

Enhanced basal lubrication and the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea-level rise

PubMed Central

Shannon, Sarah R.; Payne, Antony J.; Bartholomew, Ian D.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Edwards, Tamsin L.; Fettweis, Xavier; Gagliardini, Olivier; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Goelzer, Heiko; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Huybrechts, Philippe; Mair, Douglas W. F.; Nienow, Peter W.; Perego, Mauro; Price, Stephen F.; Smeets, C. J. P. Paul; Sole, Andrew J.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; Zwinger, Thomas

2013-01-01

We assess the effect of enhanced basal sliding on the flow and mass budget of the Greenland ice sheet, using a newly developed parameterization of the relation between meltwater runoff and ice flow. A wide range of observations suggest that water generated by melt at the surface of the ice sheet reaches its bed by both fracture and drainage through moulins. Once at the bed, this water is likely to affect lubrication, although current observations are insufficient to determine whether changes in subglacial hydraulics will limit the potential for the speedup of flow. An uncertainty analysis based on our best-fit parameterization admits both possibilities: continuously increasing or bounded lubrication. We apply the parameterization to four higher-order ice-sheet models in a series of experiments forced by changes in both lubrication and surface mass budget and determine the additional mass loss brought about by lubrication in comparison with experiments forced only by changes in surface mass balance. We use forcing from a regional climate model, itself forced by output from the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) global climate model run under scenario A1B. Although changes in lubrication generate widespread effects on the flow and form of the ice sheet, they do not affect substantial net mass loss; increase in the ice sheet’s contribution to sea-level rise from basal lubrication is projected by all models to be no more than 5% of the contribution from surface mass budget forcing alone. PMID:23940337

Enhanced basal lubrication and the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea-level rise.

PubMed

Shannon, Sarah R; Payne, Antony J; Bartholomew, Ian D; van den Broeke, Michiel R; Edwards, Tamsin L; Fettweis, Xavier; Gagliardini, Olivier; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Goelzer, Heiko; Hoffman, Matthew J; Huybrechts, Philippe; Mair, Douglas W F; Nienow, Peter W; Perego, Mauro; Price, Stephen F; Smeets, C J P Paul; Sole, Andrew J; van de Wal, Roderik S W; Zwinger, Thomas

2013-08-27

We assess the effect of enhanced basal sliding on the flow and mass budget of the Greenland ice sheet, using a newly developed parameterization of the relation between meltwater runoff and ice flow. A wide range of observations suggest that water generated by melt at the surface of the ice sheet reaches its bed by both fracture and drainage through moulins. Once at the bed, this water is likely to affect lubrication, although current observations are insufficient to determine whether changes in subglacial hydraulics will limit the potential for the speedup of flow. An uncertainty analysis based on our best-fit parameterization admits both possibilities: continuously increasing or bounded lubrication. We apply the parameterization to four higher-order ice-sheet models in a series of experiments forced by changes in both lubrication and surface mass budget and determine the additional mass loss brought about by lubrication in comparison with experiments forced only by changes in surface mass balance. We use forcing from a regional climate model, itself forced by output from the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) global climate model run under scenario A1B. Although changes in lubrication generate widespread effects on the flow and form of the ice sheet, they do not affect substantial net mass loss; increase in the ice sheet's contribution to sea-level rise from basal lubrication is projected by all models to be no more than 5% of the contribution from surface mass budget forcing alone.

Ice elevation change from Swath Processing of CryoSat SARIn Mode Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foresta, Luca; Gourmelen, Noel; Shepherd, Andrew; Muir, Alan; Nienow, Pete

2015-04-01

Reference and repeat-observations of Glacier and Ice Sheet Margin (GISM) topography are critical to identify changes in ice elevation, provide estimates of mass gain or loss and thus quantify the contribution of the cryosphere to sea level rise (e.g. McMillan et al., 2014). The Synthetic Interferometric Radar Altimeter (SIRAL) onboard the ESA radar altimetry CryoSat (CS) mission has collected ice elevation measurements since 2010. The corresponding SARIn mode of operation, activated over GISM areas, provides high spatial resolution in the along-track direction while resolving the angular origin of echoes (i.e. across-track). The current ESA SARIn processor calculates the elevation of the Point Of Closest Approach (POCA) within each waveform and maps of elevation change in Antarctica and Greenland have been produced using the regular CS height product (McMillan et al., 2014; Helm et al., 2014). Data from the CS-SARIn mode has also been used to produce measurements of ice elevation beyond the POCA, also known as swath elevation (Hawley et al. 2009; Gray et al., 2013; ESA-STSE CryoTop project). Here we use the swath processing approach to generate maps of ice elevation change from selected regions around the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. We discuss the impact of the swath processing on the spatial resolution and precision of the resulting ice elevation field and compare our results to current dh/dt estimates. References: ESA STSE CryoTop project - http://www.stse-cryotop.org/ Gray L., Burgess D., Copland L., Cullen R., Galin N., Hawley R. and Helm V. Interferometric swath processing of Cryosat data for glacial ice topography. The Cryosphere, 7(6):1857-1867, December 2013. Hawley R.L., Shepherd A., Cullen R., Helm V. and WIngham D.J. Ice-sheet elevations from across-track processing of airborne interferometric radar altimetry. Geophysical Research Letters, 36(22):L22501, November 2009. Helm V., Humbert A. and Miller H. Elevation and elevation change of Greenland and Antarctica derived from CryoSat-2. The Cryosphere, 8(4):1539-1559, August 2014. McMillan M., Shepherd A., Sundal A., Briggs K., Muir A., Ridout A., Hogg A. and Wingham D. Increased ice losses from Antarctica detected by CryoSat-2. Geophysical Research Letters, pages 3899-3905, 2014.

An Analytical Investigation of the Heat Losses from a U.S. Navy K-Type Airship

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hillendahl, Wesley H.; George, Ralph E.

1946-01-01

The heat losses from the envelope surface of a U.S. Navy K-type airship are evaluated to determine if the use of heat is a feasible means of preventing ice and snow accumulations on lighter-than-air craft during flight and when moored uncovered. Consideration is given to heat losses in clear air (no liquid water present in the atmosphere) and in probable conditions of icing and snow. The results of the analysis indicate that the amount of heat required in flight to raise the surface temperature of the entire envelope to the extent considered adequate for ice protection, based on experience with tests of heavier-than-air craft, is very large. Existing types of heating equipment which could be used to supply this quantity of heat would probably be too bulky and heavy to provide a practical flight installation. The heat requirements to provide protection for the nose and stern regions in assumed mild to moderate icing conditions appear to be within the range of the capacity of current types of heating equipment suitable for flight use. The amount of heat necessary to prevent snow accumulations on the upper surface of the airship envelope when moored uncovered under all conditions appear to be excessive for the heating equipment presently available for flight use, but could possibly be achieved with auxiliary ground heating equipment.

Ocean stratification reduces melt rates at the grounding zone of the Ross Ice Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Begeman, C. B.; Tulaczyk, S. M.; Marsh, O.; Mikucki, J.; Stanton, T. P.; Hodson, T. O.; Siegfried, M. R.; Powell, R. D.; Christianson, K. A.; King, M. A.

2017-12-01

Ocean-driven melting of ice shelves is often invoked as the primary mechanism for triggering ice loss from Antarctica. However, due to the difficulty in accessing the sub-ice-shelf ocean cavity, the relationship between ice-shelf melt rates and ocean conditions is poorly understood, particularly near the transition from grounded to floating ice, known as the grounding zone. Here we present the first borehole oceanographic observations from the grounding zone of Antarctica's largest ice shelf. Contrary to predictions that tidal currents near grounding zones should mix the water column, driving high ice-shelf melt rates, we find a stratified sub-ice-shelf water column. The vertical salinity gradient dominates stratification over a weakly unstable vertical temperature gradient; thus, stratification takes the form of a double-diffusive staircase. These conditions limit vertical heat fluxes and lead to low melt rates in the ice-shelf grounding zone. While modern grounding zone melt rates may presently be overestimated in models that assume efficient tidal mixing, the high sensitivity of double-diffusive staircases to ocean freshening and warming suggests future melt rates may be underestimated, biasing projections of global sea-level rise.

Changing Arctic ecosystems: sea ice decline, permafrost thaw, and benefits for geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.; Whalen, Mary E.; Pearce, John M.

2014-01-01

Through the Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) initiative, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) strives to inform resource management decisions for Arctic Alaska by providing scientific information on current and future ecosystem response to a warming climate. A key area for the USGS CAE initiative has been the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. This region has experienced a warming trend over the past 30 years, leading to reductions in sea ice and thawing of permafrost. Loss of sea ice has increased ocean wave action, leading to erosion and salt water inundation of coastal habitats. Saltwater tolerant plants are now thriving in these areas and this appears to be a positive outcome for geese in the Arctic. This finding is contrary to the deleterious effects that declining sea ice is having on habitats of ice-dependent animals, such as polar bear and walrus.

The Rapidly Diminishing Arctic ice Cover and its Potential Impact on Navy Operational Considerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muench, R. D.; Conlon, D.; Lamb, D.

2001-12-01

Observations made from U.S. Navy Fleet submarines during the 1990s have revealed a dramatic decrease in thickness, when compared to historical values, of the central Arctic Ocean pack ice cover. Estimates of this decrease have been as high as 40%. Remote sensing observations have shown a coincident decrease in the areal extent of the pack. The areal decrease has been especially apparent during winter. The overall loss of ice appears to have accelerated over the past decade, raising the possibility that the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route may become seasonally navigable on a regular basis in the coming decade. The ice loss has been most evident in the peripheral seas and continental shelf areas. For example, during winter 2000-2001 the Bering Sea was effectively ice-free, with strong and immediate impacts on the surrounding indigenous populations. Lessening of the peripheral pack ice cover will presumably, lead to accelerated development of the resource-rich regions that surround the deep, central Arctic Ocean basin. This raises potential issues with respect to national security and commercial interests, and has implicit strategic concerns for the Navy. The timeline for a significantly navigable Arctic may extend decades into the future; however, operational requirements must be identified in the nearer term to ensure that the necessary capabilities exist when future Arctic missions do present themselves. A first step is to improve the understanding of the coupled atmosphere/ice/ocean system. Current environmental measurement and prediction, including Arctic weather and ice prediction, shallow water acoustic performance prediction, dynamic ocean environmental changes and data to support navigation is inadequate to support sustained naval operations in the Arctic. A new focus on data collection is required in order to measure, map, monitor and model Arctic weather, ice and oceanographic conditions.

Space use of a dominant Arctic vertebrate: Effects of prey, sea ice, and land on Pacific walrus resource selection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beatty, William; Jay, Chadwick V.; Fischbach, Anthony S.; Grebmeier, Jacqueline M.; Taylor, Rebecca L.; Blanchard, Arny L.; Jewett, Stephen C.

2016-01-01

Sea ice dominates marine ecosystems in the Arctic, and recent reductions in sea ice may alter food webs throughout the region. Sea ice loss may also stress Pacific walruses (Odobenus rosmarus divergens), which feed on benthic macroinvertebrates in the Bering and Chukchi seas. However, no studies have examined the effects of sea ice on foraging Pacific walrus space use patterns. We tested a series of hypotheses that examined walrus foraging resource selection as a function of proximity to resting substrates and prey biomass. We quantified walrus prey biomass with 17 benthic invertebrate families, which included bivalves, polychaetes, amphipods, tunicates, and sipunculids. We included covariates for distance to sea ice and distance to land, and systematically developed a series of candidate models to examine interactions among benthic prey biomass and resting substrates. We ranked candidate models with Bayesian Information Criterion and made inferences on walrus resource selection based on the top-ranked model. Based on the top model, biomass of the bivalve family Tellinidae, distance to ice, distance to land, and the interaction of distances to ice and land all positively influenced walrus foraging resource selection. Standardized model coefficients indicated that distance to ice explained the most variation in walrus foraging resource selection followed by Tellinidae biomass. Distance to land and the interaction of distances to ice and land accounted for similar levels of variation. Tellinidae biomass likely represented an index of overall bivalve biomass, indicating walruses focused foraging in areas with elevated levels of bivalve and tellinid biomass. Our results also emphasize the importance of sea ice to walruses. Projected sea ice loss will increase the duration of the open water season in the Chukchi Sea, altering the spatial distribution of resting sites relative to current foraging areas and possibly affecting the spatial structure of benthic communities.

Invariant polar bear habitat selection during a period of sea ice loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Ryan R.; Regehr, Eric V.; Rode, Karyn D.; St Martin, Michelle

2016-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter many species' habitat. A species' ability to adjust to these changes is partially determined by their ability to adjust habitat selection preferences to new environmental conditions. Sea ice loss has forced polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to spend longer periods annually over less productive waters, which may be a primary driver of population declines. A negative population response to greater time spent over less productive water implies, however, that prey are not also shifting their space use in response to sea ice loss. We show that polar bear habitat selection in the Chukchi Sea has not changed between periods before and after significant sea ice loss, leading to a 75% reduction of highly selected habitat in summer. Summer was the only period with loss of highly selected habitat, supporting the contention that summer will be a critical period for polar bears as sea ice loss continues. Our results indicate that bears are either unable to shift selection patterns to reflect new prey use patterns or that there has not been a shift towards polar basin waters becoming more productive for prey. Continued sea ice loss is likely to further reduce habitat with population-level consequences for polar bears.

Tibetan Glaciers as Integrators and Sentinels of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, L. G.; Tandong, Y.; Davis, M. E.; Kehrwald, N. M.; Mosley-Thompson, E. S.

2008-12-01

Information from ice cores collected over the last two decades across the Tibetan Plateau demonstrates that this is a climatically diverse and complex region. Records spanning more than 500,000 years have been recovered from the Guliya ice cap in the far northwestern Kunlun Mountains, where the climate is dominated by the westerly flow over the Eurasian land mass. Shorter records (less than 10,000 years) have been recovered from ice fields in the central Himalaya to the south, where a monsoonal climate regime dominates and the annual accumulation is high. On decadal and longer timescales IPCC climate models predict that continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will force air temperature to increase faster at higher elevations. This vertical amplification will be greatest in low latitudes due to upper tropospheric humidity and water vapor feedback. Meteorological records across the Tibetan Plateau indicate that temperatures have risen since the mid-1950s and the rate of warming is greater (0.3°C per decade) at the higher elevation stations. Likewise, the stable isotopic compositions of ice cores across the Plateau show an overall the 20th Century enrichment that is greatest at the highest elevation sites. Glaciers in the central Himalayas, including many around the Tibetan Plateau, are experiencing an accelerating rate of ice loss, due in part to current temperature trends and associated feedbacks. Ice loss in the central Himalayas is evident from ice cores recovered in 2006 from the Naimona'nyi ice field. Unlike previous cores from glaciers around the world, including those drilled across the Tibetan Plateau, the Naimona'nyi cores lack the elevated levels of beta radioactivity from the decay of 36Cl and 3H associated with atmospheric thermonuclear bomb testing in the 1950s and 1960s. This suggests that net mass (ice) loss has exceeded accumulation on this glacier since at least 1950. If the climate conditions that govern the mass balance on Naimona'nyi extend to other glaciers in the region, the implications for future water resources in South Asia could be dire as these glaciers feed the headwaters of the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers which sustain the world's most populous region.

The missing Northern European winter cooling response to Arctic sea ice loss

PubMed Central

Screen, James A.

2017-01-01

Reductions in Arctic sea ice may promote the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO−). It has been argued that NAO-related variability can be used an as analogue to predict the effects of Arctic sea ice loss on mid-latitude weather. As NAO− events are associated with colder winters over Northern Europe, a negatively shifted NAO has been proposed as a dynamical pathway for Arctic sea ice loss to cause Northern European cooling. This study uses large-ensemble atmospheric simulations with prescribed ocean surface conditions to examine how seasonal-scale NAO− events are affected by Arctic sea ice loss. Despite an intensification of NAO− events, reflected by more prevalent easterly flow, sea ice loss does not lead to Northern European winter cooling and daily cold extremes actually decrease. The dynamical cooling from the changed NAO is ‘missing', because it is offset (or exceeded) by a thermodynamical effect owing to advection of warmer air masses. PMID:28262679

Observations of upper ocean stability and heat fluxes in the Antarctic from under-ice Argo float profile data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, E. A.; Riser, S.

2016-12-01

Sea ice growth around Antarctica is intimately linked to the stability and thermohaline structure of the underlying ocean. As sea ice grows, the resulting brine triggers convective instabilities that deepen the mixed layer and entrain warm water from the weakly stratified pycnocline. The heat released from this process acts as a strong negative feedback to ice growth which, under the right scenarios, can exceed the initial atmospheric heat loss. Much of our current understanding of this ice-ocean interaction comes from a handful of relatively short field campaigns in the Weddell Sea. Here, we supplement those observations with an analysis of over 9000 under-ice Argo float profiles, collected between 2006-2015. These profiles provide an unprecedented view of the temporal and spatial variability of the upper ocean structure throughout the Antarctic region. With these observations and a theoretical understanding of the coupled ice-ocean system, we assess the ocean's potential to limit thermodynamic ice growth as well as its susceptibility to deep convection in different regions. Using these results, we infer how recent climatic changes may influence Antarctic sea ice growth and deep ocean ventilation in the near future.

Inferring Ice Thickness from a Glacier Dynamics Model and Multiple Surface Datasets.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Y.; Haran, M.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

The future behavior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may have a major impact on future climate. For instance, ice sheet melt may contribute significantly to global sea level rise. Understanding the current state of WAIS is therefore of great interest. WAIS is drained by fast-flowing glaciers which are major contributors to ice loss. Hence, understanding the stability and dynamics of glaciers is critical for predicting the future of the ice sheet. Glacier dynamics are driven by the interplay between the topography, temperature and basal conditions beneath the ice. A glacier dynamics model describes the interactions between these processes. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model that integrates multiple ice sheet surface data sets with a glacier dynamics model. Our approach allows us to (1) infer important parameters describing the glacier dynamics, (2) learn about ice sheet thickness, and (3) account for errors in the observations and the model. Because we have relatively dense and accurate ice thickness data from the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica, we use these data to validate the proposed approach. The long-term goal of this work is to have a general model that may be used to study multiple glaciers in the Antarctic.

Remarkable separability of circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss and greenhouse gas forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCusker, K. E.; Kushner, P. J.; Fyfe, J. C.; Sigmond, M.; Kharin, V. V.; Bitz, C. M.

2017-08-01

Arctic sea ice loss may influence midlatitude climate by changing large-scale circulation. The extent to which climate change can be understood as greenhouse gas-induced changes that are modulated by this loss depends on how additive the responses to the separate influences are. A novel sea ice nudging methodology in a fully coupled climate model reveals that the separate effects of doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and associated Arctic sea ice loss are remarkably additive and insensitive to the mean climate state. This separability is evident in several fields throughout most of the year, from hemispheric to synoptic scales. The extent to which the regional response to sea ice loss sometimes agrees with and sometimes cancels the response to CO2 is quantified. The separability of the responses might provide a means to better interpret the diverse array of modeling and observational studies of Arctic change and influence.

Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission.

PubMed

Notz, Dirk; Stroeve, Julienne

2016-11-11

Arctic sea ice is retreating rapidly, raising prospects of a future ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer. Because climate-model simulations of the sea-ice loss differ substantially, we used a robust linear relationship between monthly-mean September sea-ice area and cumulative carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions to infer the future evolution of Arctic summer sea ice directly from the observational record. The observed linear relationship implies a sustained loss of 3 ± 0.3 square meters of September sea-ice area per metric ton of CO 2 emission. On the basis of this sensitivity, Arctic sea ice will be lost throughout September for an additional 1000 gigatons of CO 2 emissions. Most models show a lower sensitivity, which is possibly linked to an underestimation of the modeled increase in incoming longwave radiation and of the modeled transient climate response. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

High latitude changes in ice dynamics and their impact on polar marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Moline, Mark A; Karnovsky, Nina J; Brown, Zachary; Divoky, George J; Frazer, Thomas K; Jacoby, Charles A; Torres, Joseph J; Fraser, William R

2008-01-01

Polar regions have experienced significant warming in recent decades. Warming has been most pronounced across the Arctic Ocean Basin and along the Antarctic Peninsula, with significant decreases in the extent and seasonal duration of sea ice. Rapid retreat of glaciers and disintegration of ice sheets have also been documented. The rate of warming is increasing and is predicted to continue well into the current century, with continued impacts on ice dynamics. Climate-mediated changes in ice dynamics are a concern as ice serves as primary habitat for marine organisms central to the food webs of these regions. Changes in the timing and extent of sea ice impose temporal asynchronies and spatial separations between energy requirements and food availability for many higher trophic levels. These mismatches lead to decreased reproductive success, lower abundances, and changes in distribution. In addition to these direct impacts of ice loss, climate-induced changes also facilitate indirect effects through changes in hydrography, which include introduction of species from lower latitudes and altered assemblages of primary producers. Here, we review recent changes and trends in ice dynamics and the responses of marine ecosystems. Specifically, we provide examples of ice-dependent organisms and associated species from the Arctic and Antarctic to illustrate the impacts of the temporal and spatial changes in ice dynamics.

Aviation Trends Related to Atmospheric Environment Safety Technologies Project Technical Challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reveley, Mary S.; Withrow, Colleen A.; Barr, Lawrence C.; Evans, Joni K.; Leone, Karen M.; Jones, Sharon M.

2014-01-01

Current and future aviation safety trends related to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Atmospheric Environment Safety Technologies Project's three technical challenges (engine icing characterization and simulation capability; airframe icing simulation and engineering tool capability; and atmospheric hazard sensing and mitigation technology capability) were assessed by examining the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident database (1989 to 2008), incidents from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) accident/incident database (1989 to 2006), and literature from various industry and government sources. The accident and incident data were examined for events involving fixed-wing airplanes operating under Federal Aviation Regulation (FAR) Parts 121, 135, and 91 for atmospheric conditions related to airframe icing, ice-crystal engine icing, turbulence, clear air turbulence, wake vortex, lightning, and low visibility (fog, low ceiling, clouds, precipitation, and low lighting). Five future aviation safety risk areas associated with the three AEST technical challenges were identified after an exhaustive survey of a variety of sources and include: approach and landing accident reduction, icing/ice detection, loss of control in flight, super density operations, and runway safety.

Greenland ice sheet mass balance: a review.

PubMed

Khan, Shfaqat A; Aschwanden, Andy; Bjørk, Anders A; Wahr, John; Kjeldsen, Kristian K; Kjær, Kurt H

2015-04-01

Over the past quarter of a century the Arctic has warmed more than any other region on Earth, causing a profound impact on the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its contribution to the rise in global sea level. The loss of ice can be partitioned into processes related to surface mass balance and to ice discharge, which are forced by internal or external (atmospheric/oceanic/basal) fluctuations. Regardless of the measurement method, observations over the last two decades show an increase in ice loss rate, associated with speeding up of glaciers and enhanced melting. However, both ice discharge and melt-induced mass losses exhibit rapid short-term fluctuations that, when extrapolated into the future, could yield erroneous long-term trends. In this paper we review the GrIS mass loss over more than a century by combining satellite altimetry, airborne altimetry, interferometry, aerial photographs and gravimetry data sets together with modelling studies. We revisit the mass loss of different sectors and show that they manifest quite different sensitivities to atmospheric and oceanic forcing. In addition, we discuss recent progress in constructing coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere models required to project realistic future sea-level changes.

Constraining Future Sea Level Rise Estimates from the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nias, I.; Cornford, S. L.; Edwards, T.; Gourmelen, N.; Payne, A. J.

2016-12-01

The Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) is the primary source of mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The catchment is particularly susceptible to grounding line retreat, because the ice sheet is grounded on bedrock that is below sea level and deepening towards its interior. Mass loss from the ASE ice streams, which include Pine Island, Thwaites and Smith glaciers, is a major uncertainty on future sea level rise, and understanding the dynamics of these ice streams is essential to constraining this uncertainty. The aim of this study is to construct a distribution of future ASE sea level contributions from an ensemble of ice sheet model simulations and observations of surface elevation change. A 284 member ensemble was performed using BISICLES, a vertically-integrated ice flow model with adaptive mesh refinement. Within the ensemble parameters associated with basal traction, ice rheology and sub-shelf melt rate were perturbed, and the effect of bed topography and sliding law were also investigated. Initially each configuration was run to 50 model years. Satellite observations of surface height change were then used within a Bayesian framework to assign likelihoods to each ensemble member. Simulations that better reproduced the current thinning patterns across the catchment were given a higher score. The resulting posterior distribution of sea level contributions is narrower than the prior distribution, although the central estimates of sea level rise are similar between the prior and posterior. The most extreme simulations were eliminated and the remaining ensemble members were extended to 200 years, using a simple melt rate forcing.

Invariant polar bear habitat selection during a period of sea ice loss.

PubMed

Wilson, Ryan R; Regehr, Eric V; Rode, Karyn D; St Martin, Michelle

2016-08-17

Climate change is expected to alter many species' habitat. A species' ability to adjust to these changes is partially determined by their ability to adjust habitat selection preferences to new environmental conditions. Sea ice loss has forced polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to spend longer periods annually over less productive waters, which may be a primary driver of population declines. A negative population response to greater time spent over less productive water implies, however, that prey are not also shifting their space use in response to sea ice loss. We show that polar bear habitat selection in the Chukchi Sea has not changed between periods before and after significant sea ice loss, leading to a 75% reduction of highly selected habitat in summer. Summer was the only period with loss of highly selected habitat, supporting the contention that summer will be a critical period for polar bears as sea ice loss continues. Our results indicate that bears are either unable to shift selection patterns to reflect new prey use patterns or that there has not been a shift towards polar basin waters becoming more productive for prey. Continued sea ice loss is likely to further reduce habitat with population-level consequences for polar bears. © 2016 The Author(s).

Depth, ice thickness, and ice-out timing cause divergent hydrologic responses among Arctic lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Liljedahl, Anna K.; Hinkel, Kenneth M.; Welker, Jeffery A.

2015-01-01

Lakes are prevalent in the Arctic and thus play a key role in regional hydrology. Since many Arctic lakes are shallow and ice grows thick (historically 2-m or greater), seasonal ice commonly freezes to the lake bed (bedfast ice) by winter's end. Bedfast ice fundamentally alters lake energy balance and melt-out processes compared to deeper lakes that exceed the maximum ice thickness (floating ice) and maintain perennial liquid water below floating ice. Our analysis of lakes in northern Alaska indicated that ice-out of bedfast ice lakes occurred on average 17 days earlier (22-June) than ice-out on adjacent floating ice lakes (9-July). Earlier ice-free conditions in bedfast ice lakes caused higher open-water evaporation, 28% on average, relative to floating ice lakes and this divergence increased in lakes closer to the coast and in cooler summers. Water isotopes (18O and 2H) indicated similar differences in evaporation between these lake types. Our analysis suggests that ice regimes created by the combination of lake depth relative to ice thickness and associated ice-out timing currently cause a strong hydrologic divergence among Arctic lakes. Thus understanding the distribution and dynamics of lakes by ice regime is essential for predicting regional hydrology. An observed regime shift in lakes to floating ice conditions due to thinner ice growth may initially offset lake drying because of lower evaporative loss from this lake type. This potential negative feedback caused by winter processes occurs in spite of an overall projected increase in evapotranspiration as the Arctic climate warms.

Rapid thinning and collapse of lake calving Yakutat Glacier, Southeast Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trussel, Barbara Lea

Glaciers around the globe are experiencing a notable retreat and thinning, triggered by atmospheric warming. Tidewater glaciers in particular have received much attention, because they have been recognized to contribute substantially to global sea level rise. However, lake calving glaciers in Alaska show increasingly high thinning and retreat rates and are therefore contributors to sea level rise. The number of such lake calving systems is increasing worldwide as land-terminating glaciers retreat into overdeepened basins and form proglacial lakes. Yakutat Glacier in Southeast Alaska is a low elevation lake calving glacier with an accumulation to total area ratio of 0.03. It experienced rapid thinning of 4.43 +/- 0.06 m w.e. yr-1 between 2000-2010 and terminus retreat of over 15 km since the beginning of the 20th century. Simultaneously, adjacent Yakutat Icefield land-terminating glaciers thinned at lower but still substantial rates (3.54 +/- 0.06 m w.e. yr -1 for the same time period), indicating lake calving dynamics help drive increased mass loss. Yakutat Glacier sustained a ˜3 km long floating tongue for over a decade, which started to disintegrate into large tabular icebergs in 2010. Such floating tongues are rarely seen on temperate tidewater glaciers. The floating ice was weakened by surface ablation, which then allowed rifts to form and intersect. Ice velocity from GPS measurements showed that the ice on the floating tongue was moving substantially faster than grounded ice, which was attributed to rift opening between the floating and grounded ice. Temporal variations of rift opening were determined from time-lapse imagery, and correlated well with variations in ice speeds. Larger rift opening rates occurred during and after precipitation or increased melt episodes. Both of these events increased subglacial discharge and could potentially increase the subaqueous currents towards the open lake and thus increase drag on the ice underside. Simultaneously, increased water input may cause lake level in rifts to rise resulting in faster rift propagation and spreading. Similar formation and disintegration of floating tongues are expected to occur in the glacier's future, as the ice divide lies below the current lake level. In addition to calving retreat, Yakutat Glacier is rapidly thinning, which lowers its surface and therefore exposes the ice to warmer air temperatures causing increased thinning. Even under a constant climate, this positive feedback mechanism would force Yakutat Glacier to quickly retreat and mostly disappear. Simulations of future mass loss were run for two scenarios, keeping the current climate and forcing it with a projected warming climate. Results showed that over 95% of the glacier ice will have disappeared by 2120 or 2070 under a constant vs projected climate, respectively. For the first few decades, the glacier will be able to maintain its current thinning rate by retreating and thus losing areas of lowest elevation. However, once higher elevations have thinned substantially, the glacier cannot compensate any more to maintain a constant thinning rate and transfers into an unstable run-away situation. To stop this collapse and transform Yakutat Glacier into equilibrium in its current geometry, air temperatures would have to drop by 1.5 K or precipitation would have to increase by more than 50%. An increase in precipitation alone is unlikely to lead to a stable configuration, due to the very small current accumulation area.

Ice sheet systems and sea level change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rignot, E. J.

2015-12-01

Modern views of ice sheets provided by satellites, airborne surveys, in situ data and paleoclimate records while transformative of glaciology have not fundamentally changed concerns about ice sheet stability and collapse that emerged in the 1970's. Motivated by the desire to learn more about ice sheets using new technologies, we stumbled on an unexplored field of science and witnessed surprising changes before realizing that most were coming too fast, soon and large. Ice sheets are integrant part of the Earth system; they interact vigorously with the atmosphere and the oceans, yet most of this interaction is not part of current global climate models. Since we have never witnessed the collapse of a marine ice sheet, observations and exploration remain critical sentinels. At present, these observations suggest that Antarctica and Greenland have been launched into a path of multi-meter sea level rise caused by rapid climate warming. While the current loss of ice sheet mass to the ocean remains a trickle, every mm of sea level change will take centuries of climate reversal to get back, several major marine-terminating sectors have been pushed out of equilibrium, and ice shelves are irremediably being lost. As glaciers retreat from their salty, warm, oceanic margins, they will melt away and retreat slower, but concerns remain about sea level change from vastly marine-based sectors: 2-m sea level equivalent in Greenland and 23-m in Antarctica. Significant changes affect 2/4 marine-based sectors in Greenland - Jakobshavn Isb. and the northeast stream - with Petermann Gl. not far behind. Major changes have affected the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica since the 1980s. Smaller yet significant changes affect the marine-based Wilkes Land sector of East Antarctica, a reminder that not all marine-based ice is in West Antarctica. Major advances in reducing uncertainties in sea level projections will require massive, interdisciplinary efforts that are not currently in place but are getting there. Projection scenarios are overwhelmingly conservative, pushed up by observations, awaiting more detailed knowledge of ocean circulation, winds, ice-ocean interaction, and mechanics of rapid ice fracture, not to mention the mere definition of static boundaries (ice thickness and sea floor bathymetry).

Accelerated wastage of the Monte Perdido Glacier in the Spanish Pyrenees during recent stationary climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Moreno, J. I.; Revuelto, J.; Rico, I.; Chueca-Cía, J.; Julián, A.; Serreta, A.; Serrano, E.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; Azorín-Molina, C.; Alonso-González, E.; García-Ruiz, J. M.

2015-09-01

This paper analyzes the evolution of the Monte Perdido Glacier, the third largest glacier of the Pyrenees, from 1981 to the present. We assessed the evolution of the glacier's surface area by use of aerial photographs from 1981, 1999, and 2006, and changes in ice volume by geodetic methods with digital elevation models (DEMs) generated from topographic maps (1981 and 1999), airborne LIDAR (2010) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014). We interpreted the changes in the glacier based on climate data from a nearby meteorological station. The results indicate an accelerated degradation of this glacier after 2000, with a rate of ice surface loss that was almost three-times greater from 2000 to 2006 than for earlier periods, and a doubling of the rate of ice volume loss from 1999 to 2010 (the ice depth decreased 8.98 ± 1.8 m, -0.72 ± 0.14 m w.e. yr-1) compared to 1981 to 1999 (the ice depth decreased 8.35 ± 2.12 m, -0.39 ± 0.1 m w.e. yr-1). This loss of glacial ice has continued from 2011 to 2014 (the ice depth decreased 2.1 ± 0.4 m, -0.64 ± 0.36 m w.e. yr-1). Local climatic changes during the study period cannot explain the acceleration in wastage rate of this glacier, because local precipitation and snow accumulation increased slightly, and local air temperature during the ablation period did not significantly increase. The accelerated degradation of this glacier in recent years can be explained by the lack of equilibrium between the glacier and the current climatic conditions. In particular, the average air temperature increased by at least 0.9 °C in this region since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) in the mid-1800s. Thus, this glacier shrinks dramatically during years with low accumulation or high air temperatures during the ablation season, but cannot recover during years with high accumulation or low air temperatures during the ablation season. The most recent TLS data support this interpretation. These data indicated that two consecutive markedly anomalous wet winters and cool summers (2012-13 and 2013-14) led to near zero mass balance conditions, with significant losses of ice in some areas. These anomalous periods could not counteract the dramatic shrinkage that occurred during the dry and warm period of 2011-2012.

Integrating Observations and Models to Better Understand a Changing Arctic Sea Ice Cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, J. C.

2017-12-01

TThe loss of the Arctic sea ice cover has captured the world's attention. While much attention has been paid to the summer ice loss, changes are not limited to summer. The last few winters have seen record low sea ice extents, with 2017 marking the 3rdyear in a row with a new record low for the winter maximum extent. More surprising is the number of consecutive months between January 2016 through April 2017 with ice extent anomalies more than 2 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 mean. Additionally, October 2016 through April 2017 saw 7 consecutive months with record low extents, something that had not happened before in the last 4 decades of satellite observations. As larger parts of the Arctic Ocean become ice-free in summer, regional seas gradually transition from a perennial to a seasonal ice cover. The Barents Sea is already only seasonally ice covered, whereas the Kara Sea has recently lost most of its summer ice and is thereby starting to become a seasonally ice covered region. These changes serve as harbinger for what's to come for other Arctic seas. Given the rapid pace of change, there is an urgent need to improve our understanding of the drivers behind Arctic sea ice loss, the implications of this ice loss and to predict future changes to better inform policy makers. Climate models play a fundamental role in helping us synthesize the complex elements of the Arctic sea ice system yet generally fail to simulate key features of the sea ice system and the pace of sea ice loss. Nevertheless, modeling advances continue to provide better means of diagnosing sea ice change, and new insights are likely to be gained with model output from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The CMIP6 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP) aim is to better understand biases and errors in sea ice simulations so that we can improve our understanding of the likely future evolution of the sea ice cover and its impacts on global climate. To reach this goal, a community-defined set of model output has been recommended that will allow scientists to better characterize the heat, momentum and mass budget of Arctic sea ice. This will allow for better quantification of the role of internal variability, external forcing and model deficiencies.

Disentangling the Roles of Atmospheric and Oceanic Forcing on the Last Deglaciation of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keisling, B. A.; Deconto, R. M.

2017-12-01

Today the Greenland Ice Sheet loses mass via both oceanic and atmospheric processes. However, the relative importance of these mass balance components is debated, especially their potential impact on ongoing and future mass imbalance. Discerning the impact of oceanic versus atmospheric forcing during past periods of mass loss provides potential insight into the future behavior of the ice sheet. Here we present an ensemble of Greenland Ice Sheet simulations of the last deglaciation, designed to assess separately the roles of the ocean and the atmosphere in driving mass loss over the last twenty thousand years. We use twenty-eight different ocean forcing scenarios along with a cutting-edge reconstruction of time-evolving atmospheric conditions based on climate model output and δ15N-based temperature reconstructions to generate a range of ice-sheet responses during the deglaciation. We then compare the simulated timing of ice-retreat in individual catchments with estimates based on both 10Be (exposure) and 14C (minimum-limiting) dates. These experiments allow us to identify the ocean forcing scenario that best match the data on a local-to-regional (i.e., 100-1000 km) scales, providing an assessment of the relative importance of ocean and atmospheric forcing components around the periphery of Greenland. We use these simulations to quantify the importance of the three major mass balance terms (calving, oceanic melting, and surface melting) and assess the uncertainty of the relative influence of these factors during the most recent periods of major ice loss. Our results show that mass balance components around different sectors of the ice sheet respond differently to forcing, with oceanic components driving the majority of retreat in south and east Greenland and atmospheric forcing dominating in west and north Greenland In addition, we target three areas at high spatial resolution ( 1 km) around Greenland currently undergoing substantial change (Jakobshavn, Petermann, and Nioghalvfjerdsfjord/Zakariae) to directly compare simulated deglacial retreat rates with those implied by submarine and subaerial moraine systems.

Antarctic ice sheet mass loss estimates using Modified Antarctic Mapping Mission surface flow observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Diandong; Leslie, Lance M.; Lynch, Mervyn J.

2013-03-01

The long residence time of ice and the relatively gentle slopes of the Antarctica Ice Sheet make basal sliding a unique positive feedback mechanism in enhancing ice discharge along preferred routes. The highly organized ice stream channels extending to the interior from the lower reach of the outlets are a manifestation of the role of basal granular material in enhancing the ice flow. In this study, constraining the model-simulated year 2000 ice flow fields with surface velocities obtained from InSAR measurements permits retrieval of the basal sliding parameters. Forward integrations of the ice model driven by atmospheric and oceanic parameters from coupled general circulation models under different emission scenarios provide a range of estimates of total ice mass loss during the 21st century. The total mass loss rate has a small intermodel and interscenario spread, rising from approximately -160 km3/yr at present to approximately -220 km3/yr by 2100. The accelerated mass loss rate of the Antarctica Ice Sheet in a warming climate is due primarily to a dynamic response in the form of an increase in ice flow speed. Ice shelves contribute to this feedback through a reduced buttressing effect due to more frequent systematic, tabular calving events. For example, by 2100 the Ross Ice Shelf is projected to shed 40 km3 during each systematic tabular calving. After the frontal section's attrition, the remaining shelf will rebound. Consequently, the submerged cross-sectional area will reduce, as will the buttressing stress. Longitudinal differential warming of ocean temperature contributes to tabular calving. Because of the prevalence of fringe ice shelves, oceanic effects likely will play a very important role in the future mass balance of the Antarctica Ice Sheet, under a possible future warming climate.

Effects of Ice Formations on Airplane Performance in Level Cruising Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Preston, G. Merritt; Blackman, Calvin C.

1948-01-01

A flight investigation in natural icing conditions was conducted by the NACA to determine the effect of ice accretion on airplane performance. The maximum loss in propeller efficiency encountered due to ice formation on the propeller blades was 19 percent. During 87 percent of the propeller icing encounters, losses of 10 percent or less were observed. Ice formations on all of the components of the airplane except the propellers during one icing encounter resulted in an increase in parasite drag of the airplane of 81 percent. The control response of the airplane in this condition was marginal.

Simulating ice thickness and velocity evolution of Upernavik Isstrøm 1849-2012 by forcing prescribed terminus positions in ISSM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haubner, Konstanze; Box, Jason E.; Schlegel, Nicole J.; Larour, Eric Y.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Solgaard, Anne M.; Kjeldsen, Kristian K.; Larsen, Signe H.; Rignot, Eric; Dupont, Todd K.; Kjær, Kurt H.

2018-04-01

Tidewater glacier velocity and mass balance are known to be highly responsive to terminus position change. Yet it remains challenging for ice flow models to reproduce observed ice margin changes. Here, using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM; Larour et al. 2012), we simulate the ice velocity and thickness changes of Upernavik Isstrøm (north-western Greenland) by prescribing a collection of 27 observed terminus positions spanning 164 years (1849-2012). The simulation shows increased ice velocity during the 1930s, the late 1970s and between 1995 and 2012 when terminus retreat was observed along with negative surface mass balance anomalies. Three distinct mass balance states are evident in the reconstruction: (1849-1932) with near zero mass balance, (1932-1992) with ice mass loss dominated by ice dynamical flow, and (1998-2012), when increased retreat and negative surface mass balance anomalies led to mass loss that was twice that of any earlier period. Over the multi-decadal simulation, mass loss was dominated by thinning and acceleration responsible for 70 % of the total mass loss induced by prescribed change in terminus position. The remaining 30 % of the total ice mass loss resulted directly from prescribed terminus retreat and decreasing surface mass balance. Although the method can not explain the cause of glacier retreat, it enables the reconstruction of ice flow and geometry during 1849-2012. Given annual or seasonal observed terminus front positions, this method could be a useful tool for evaluating simulations investigating the effect of calving laws.

Fingerprinting sea-level variations in response to continental ice loss: a benchmark exercise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barletta, Valentina R.; Spada, Giorgio; Riva, Riccardo E. M.; James, Thomas S.; Simon, Karen M.; van der Wal, Wouter; Martinec, Zdenek; Klemann, Volker; Olsson, Per-Anders; Hagedoorn, Jan; Stocchi, Paolo; Vermeersen, Bert

2013-04-01

Understanding the response of the Earth to the waxing and waning ice sheets is crucial in various contexts, ranging from the interpretation of modern satellite geodetic measurements to the projections of future sea level trends in response to climate change. All the processes accompanying Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) can be described solving the so-called Sea Level Equation (SLE), an integral equation that accounts for the interactions between the ice sheets, the solid Earth, and the oceans. Modern approaches to the SLE are based on various techniques that range from purely analytical formulations to fully numerical methods. Here we present the results of a benchmark exercise of independently developed codes designed to solve the SLE. The study involves predictions of current sea level changes due to present-day ice mass loss. In spite of the differences in the methods employed, the comparison shows that a significant number of GIA modellers can reproduce their sea-level computations within 2% for well defined, large-scale present-day ice mass changes. Smaller and more detailed loads need further and dedicated benchmarking and high resolution computation. This study shows how the details of the implementation and the inputs specifications are an important, and often underappreciated, aspect. Hence this represents a step toward the assessment of reliability of sea level projections obtained with benchmarked SLE codes.

Study of elevation changes along a profile crossing the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hvidegaard, S. M.; Sandberg, L.

2009-04-01

In recent years much research has focused on determining how the Greenland Ice Sheet is responding to the observed climate changes. There is wide agreement on the fact that the Ice Sheet is currently loosing mass, and studies have shown that the mass loss is found near the ice edge and that no significant changes are found in the central part of the Ice Sheet. As a part of European Space Agency's CryoSat Validation Experiment (CryoVEx) running from 2004 to 2008, the National Space Institute (DTU Space) measured the elevations along a profile crossing the Greenland Ice Sheet. The elevation observations were carried out in 2004, 2006 and 2008 using airborne laser altimetry from a Twin Otter aircraft. The observed profile follows the old EGIG line (Expédition Glaciologique au Groenland, measured in the 1950's) situated between 69-71N, heading nearly east-west. This unique dataset gives the opportunity to study elevation changes along the profile crossing the ice sheet. With this work, we outline the observed elevation changes from the different zones of the ice sheet. We furthermore compare elevation changes based on coincident ICESat and airborne laser altimeter data.

Fjord dynamics and glacio-marine interactions on Northern Ellesmere Island, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, A.; Mueller, D.; Laval, B.

2012-12-01

Despite the existence of ice shelves and glacier tongues along the northern coast of Ellesmere Island, Canada, for the majority of the past 4000 years (Evans and England, 1992; Antoniades et al., 2011) recent atmospheric warming has contributed to collapse of the remaining ice shelves and the loss of rare ice-shelf dammed lakes (epishelf lakes) (Mueller et al., 2003, 2008; Copland et al., 2007). These studies have primarily addressed surface processes as the causal factors for ice shelf breakup, but changes in ocean stratification and heat flux, meltwater input, and subglacial thermodynamics may strongly influence the integrity and fate of these systems. Despite the growing evidence of the importance of oceanic processes on tidewater glacier mass balance in Greenlandic fjords (Holland et al., 2008; Johnson et al., 2011; Straneo et al., 2011) these processes remain poorly studied on related systems in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). In addition, the recent sharp increase in mass loss from the glaciers and ice caps of the CAA, primarily in the form of meltwater runoff (Gardner et al., 2011) suggest understanding the aquatic and oceanic factors contributing to ice shelf and glacier tongue integrity and epishelf lake formation is critical. We will present observations from the Milne Fjord ice shelf, epishelf lake, and glacier tongue system on the northern coast of Ellesmere Island, Canada (Fig. 1). Two years of field observations include a 15-month under-ice ocean mooring deployment, through-ice oceanographic CTD and current velocity profiles, and ice mass balance estimates from ablation stake and GPR surveys. We will present the first ever observations of the seasonal and episodic oceanographic variations of Milne Fjord, with particular focus on ocean-epishelf lake-ice shelf dynamics. We aim to understand how all ice and ocean components interact to determine the evolution and stability of the system, with the goal of understanding and perhaps predicting large ice calving events and epishelf lake drainage. Figure 1. Elevation schematic of Milne Fjord, Ellesmere Island showing the ice shelf-dammed freshwater lake overlying deeper saltwater between the floating ice shelf and glacier tongue. Processes shown include a hypothesized estuarine-like fjord circulation, supra- and sub-glacial runoff, basal ice melting, tides, and sub-ice shelf freshwater outflow.

Ice2sea - the future glacial contribution to sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, D. G.; Ice2sea Consortium

2009-04-01

The melting of continental ice (glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets) is a substantial source of current sea-level rise, and one that is accelerating more rapidly than was predicted even a few years ago. Indeed, the most recent report from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighted that the uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise is dominated by uncertainty concerning continental ice, and that understanding of the key processes that will lead to loss of continental ice must be improved before reliable projections of sea-level rise can be produced. Such projections are urgently required for effective sea-defence management and coastal adaptation planning. Ice2sea is a consortium of European institutes and international partners seeking European funding to support an integrated scientific programme to improve understanding concerning the future glacial contribution to sea-level rise. This includes improving understanding of the processes that control, past, current and future sea-level rise, and generation of improved estimates of the contribution of glacial components to sea-level rise over the next 200 years. The programme will include targeted studies of key processes in mountain glacier systems and ice caps (e.g. Svalbard), and in ice sheets in both polar regions (Greenland and Antarctica) to improve understanding of how these systems will respond to future climate change. It will include fieldwork and remote sensing studies, and develop a suite of new, cross-validated glacier and ice-sheet model. Ice2sea will deliver these results in forms accessible to scientists, policy-makers and the general public, which will include clear presentations of the sources of uncertainty. Our aim is both, to provide improved projections of the glacial contribution to sea-level rise, and to leave a legacy of improved tools and techniques that will form the basis of ongoing refinements in sea-level projection. Ice2sea will provide exciting opportunities for many early-career glaciologists and ice-modellers in a variety of host institutes.

The thermoregulatory function of the human hand: How do palm and digit proportions affect heat loss?

PubMed

Payne, Stephanie; Macintosh, Alison; Stock, Jay

2018-03-30

The current study assessed whether ecogeographical patterns seen in hand proportions correlate with heat loss directly. Using a brief severe cold immersion experiment on the hand, the influence of hand and digit dimensions on heat loss was evaluated. A sample of 113 living individuals were tested. Two-dimensional and three-dimensional scanning techniques were used to assess hand and digit dimensions. Thermal imaging analysis was used to quantify heat loss during a 3-min ice-water immersion of the hands. When body size was accounted for, hand width and digit length relative to total hand length were significant predictors of heat loss from the hand. The current study provides empirical evidence to support the link between thermodynamic principles relating to surface area-to-volume ratio, and ecogeographical patterns associated with temperature. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall.

PubMed

Winkelmann, R; Levermann, A; Martin, M A; Frieler, K

2012-12-13

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea level rise, but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss and ocean expansion. Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall, but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica and thus in the ultimate fate of the precipitation-deposited ice mass. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500 (ref. 8), show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario. The reported effect thus strongly counters a potential negative contribution to global sea level by the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Variations in Surface Texture of the North Polar Residual Cap of Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Milkovich, S. M.; Byrne, S.; Russell, P. S.

2011-01-01

The northern polar residual cap (NPRC) of Mars is a water ice deposit with a rough surface made up of pits, knobs, and linear depressions on scales of tens of meters. This roughness manifests as a series of bright mounds and dark hollows in visible images; these bright and dark patches have a characteristic wavelength and orientation. Spectral data indicate that the surface of the NPRC is composed of large-grained (and therefore old) water ice. Due to the presence of this old ice, it is thought that the NPRC is in a current state of net loss of material a result potentially at odds with impact crater statistics, which suggest ongoing deposition over the past 10-20 Kyr.

Quantifying Glacier Volume Change Using UAV-Derived Imagery and Structure from Motion Photogrammetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decker, C. R.; La Frenierre, J.

2017-12-01

Glaciers in the Tropical Andes, like those worldwide, are experiencing rapid ice volume loss due to climate change. Tropical areas are of significant interest in glacier studies because they are especially sensitive to climate change. Quantifying the rate of ice volume loss is important given their sensitivity to climate change and the importance of glacier meltwater for downstream human use. Past studies have found shrinking ice surfaces areas, but finding the actual rate of volume loss gives more information about how glaciers are reacting to climate change as well as the direct hydrological effects of ice volume loss. In this study we determined the rate of ice volume loss for a debris covered section of the Reschreiter Glacier and a portion of the clean ice tongue of the Hans Meyer Glacier on Volcán Chimborazo in Ecuador. Traditional geodetic approaches of measuring ice volume change, including the use of satellite-derived digital elevation models and airborne LIDAR, are difficult in this case due to the small size of Chimborazo's glaciers, frequently cloudy conditions, and limited local resources. Instead, we obtained imagery with an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) and processed this imagery using Structure from Motion photogrammetry. Our results are used to evaluate the role of elevation and debris cover as Chimborazo's glaciers respond to climate change.

Antarctic sea ice losses drive gains in benthic carbon drawdown.

PubMed

Barnes, D K A

2015-09-21

Climate forcing of sea-ice losses from the Arctic and West Antarctic are blueing the poles. These losses are accelerating, reducing Earth's albedo and increasing heat absorption. Subarctic forest (area expansion and increased growth) and ice-shelf losses (resulting in new phytoplankton blooms which are eaten by benthos) are the only significant described negative feedbacks acting to counteract the effects of increasing CO2 on a warming planet, together accounting for uptake of ∼10(7) tonnes of carbon per year. Most sea-ice loss to date has occurred over polar continental shelves, which are richly, but patchily, colonised by benthic animals. Most polar benthos feeds on microscopic algae (phytoplankton), which has shown increased blooms coincident with sea-ice losses. Here, growth responses of Antarctic shelf benthos to sea-ice losses and phytoplankton increases were investigated. Analysis of two decades of benthic collections showed strong increases in annual production of shelf seabed carbon in West Antarctic bryozoans. These were calculated to have nearly doubled to >2x10(5) tonnes of carbon per year since the 1980s. Annual production of bryozoans is median within wider Antarctic benthos, so upscaling to include other benthos (combined study species typically constitute ∼3% benthic biomass) suggests an increased drawdown of ∼2.9x10(6) tonnes of carbon per year. This drawdown could become sequestration because polar continental shelves are typically deeper than most modern iceberg scouring, bacterial breakdown rates are slow, and benthos is easily buried. To date, most sea-ice losses have been Arctic, so, if hyperboreal benthos shows a similar increase in drawdown, polar continental shelves would represent Earth's largest negative feedback to climate change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accelerated West Antarctic ice mass loss continues to outpace East Antarctic gains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harig, Christopher; Simons, Frederik J.

2015-04-01

While multiple data sources have confirmed that Antarctica is losing ice at an accelerating rate, different measurement techniques estimate the details of its geographically highly variable mass balance with different levels of accuracy, spatio-temporal resolution, and coverage. Some scope remains for methodological improvements using a single data type. In this study we report our progress in increasing the accuracy and spatial resolution of time-variable gravimetry from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). We determine the geographic pattern of ice mass change in Antarctica between January 2003 and June 2014, accounting for glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) using the IJ05_R2 model. Expressing the unknown signal in a sparse Slepian basis constructed by optimization to prevent leakage out of the regions of interest, we use robust signal processing and statistical estimation methods. Applying those to the latest time series of monthly GRACE solutions we map Antarctica's mass loss in space and time as well as can be recovered from satellite gravity alone. Ignoring GIA model uncertainty, over the period 2003-2014, West Antarctica has been losing ice mass at a rate of - 121 ± 8 Gt /yr and has experienced large acceleration of ice mass losses along the Amundsen Sea coast of - 18 ± 5 Gt /yr2, doubling the mass loss rate in the past six years. The Antarctic Peninsula shows slightly accelerating ice mass loss, with larger accelerated losses in the southern half of the Peninsula. Ice mass gains due to snowfall in Dronning Maud Land have continued to add about half the amount of West Antarctica's loss back onto the continent over the last decade. We estimate the overall mass losses from Antarctica since January 2003 at - 92 ± 10 Gt /yr.

Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkelmann, Ricarda; Levermann, Anders; Martin, Maria A.; Frieler, Katja

2013-04-01

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea-level rise, but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss and ocean expansion. Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall, but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500, show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario.

Mass Balance of the Northern Antarctic Peninsula and its Ongoing Response to Ice Shelf Loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scambos, T. A.; Berthier, E.; Haran, T. M.; Shuman, C. A.; Cook, A. J.; Bohlander, J. A.

2012-12-01

An assessment of the most rapidly changing areas of the Antarctic Peninsula (north of 66°S) shows that ice mass loss for the region is dominated by areas affected by eastern-Peninsula ice shelf losses in the past 20 years. Little if any of the mass loss is compensated by increased snowfall in the northwestern or far northern areas. We combined satellite stereo-image DEM differencing and ICESat-derived along-track elevation changes to measure ice mass loss for the Antarctic Peninsula north of 66°S between 2001-2010, focusing on the ICESat-1 period of operation (2003-2009). This mapping includes all ice drainages affected by recent ice shelf loss in the northeastern Peninsula (Prince Gustav, Larsen Inlet, Larsen A, and Larsen B) as well as James Ross Island, Vega Island, Anvers Island, Brabant Island and the adjacent west-flowing glaciers. Polaris Glacier (feeding the Larsen Inlet, which collapsed in 1986) is an exception, and may have stabilized. Our method uses ASTER and SPOT-5 stereo-image DEMs to determine dh/dt for elevations below 800 m; at higher elevations ICESat along-track elevation differencing is used. To adjust along-track path offsets between its 2003-2009 campaigns, we use a recent DEM of the Peninsula to establish and correct for cross-track slope (Cook et al., 2012, doi:10.5194/essdd-5-365-2012; http://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0516.html) . We reduce the effect of possible seasonal variations in elevation by using only integer-year repeats of the ICESat tracks for comparison. Mass losses are dominated by the major glaciers that had flowed into the Prince Gustav (Boydell, Sjorgren, Röhss), Larsen A (Edgeworth, Bombardier, Dinsmoor, Drygalski), and Larsen B (Hektoria, Jorum, and Crane) embayments. The pattern of mass loss emphasizes the significant and multi-decadal response to ice shelf loss. Areas with shelf losses occurring 30 to 100s of years ago seem to be relatively stable or losing mass only slowly (western glaciers, northernmost areas). The remnant of the Larsen B, Scar Inlet Ice Shelf, shows signs of imminent break-up, and its feeder glaciers (Flask and Leppard) are already increasing in speed as the ice shelf remnant decreases in area.

Assessing the role of internal climate variability in Antarctica's contribution to future sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) has the potential to be a major contributor to future sea-level rise (SLR). Current projections of SLR due to AIS mass loss remain highly uncertain. Better understanding of how ice sheets respond to future climate forcing and variability is essential for assessing the long-term risk of SLR. However, the predictability of future climate is limited by uncertainties from emission scenarios, model structural differences, and the internal variability that is inherently generated within the fully coupled climate system. Among those uncertainties, the impact of internal variability on the AIS changes has not been explicitly assessed. In this study, we quantify the effect of internal variability on the AIS evolutions by using climate fields from two large-ensemble experiments using the Community Earth System Model to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. We find that internal variability of climate fields, particularly atmospheric fields, among ensemble members leads to significantly different AIS responses. Our results show that the internal variability can cause about 80 mm differences of AIS contribution to SLR by 2100 compared to the ensemble-mean contribution of 380-450 mm. Moreover, using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in the ice sheet model does not produce realistic simulations of the ice loss. Instead, it significantly delays the onset of retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet for up to 20 years and significantly underestimates the AIS contribution to SLR by 0.07-0.11 m in 2100 and up to 0.34 m in the 2250's. Therefore, because the uncertainty caused by internal variability is irreducible, we seek to highlight a critical need to assess the role of internal variability in projecting the AIS loss over the next few centuries. By quantifying the impact of internal variability on AIS contribution to SLR, policy makers can obtain more robust estimates of SLR and implement suitable adaptation strategies.

The Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, A.; Ivins, E. R.

2015-12-01

Fluctuations in the mass of ice stored in Antarctica and Greenland are of considerable societal importance. The Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-Comparison Exercise (IMBIE) is a joint-initiative of ESA and NASA aimed at producing a single estimate of the global sea level contribution to polar ice sheet losses. Within IMBIE, estimates of ice sheet mass balance are developed from a variety of satellite geodetic techniques using a common spatial and temporal reference frame and a common appreciation of the contributions due to external signals. The project brings together the laboratories and space agencies that have been instrumental in developing independent estimates of ice sheet mass balance to date. In its first phase, IMBIE involved 27 science teams, and delivered a first community assessment of ice sheet mass imbalance to replace 40 individual estimates. The project established that (i) there is good agreement between the three main satellite-based techniques for estimating ice sheet mass balance, (ii) combining satellite data sets leads to significant improvement in certainty, (iii) the polar ice sheets contributed 11 ± 4 mm to global sea levels between 1992 and 2012, and (iv) that combined ice losses from Antarctica and Greenland have increased over time, rising from 10% of the global trend in the early 1990's to 30% in the late 2000's. Demand for an updated assessment has grown, and there are now new satellite missions, new geophysical corrections, new techniques, and new teams producing data. The period of overlap between independent satellite techniques has increased from 5 to 12 years, and the full period of satellite data over which an assessment can be performed has increased from 19 to 40 years. It is also clear that multiple satellite techniques are required to confidently separate mass changes associated with snowfall and ice dynamical imbalance - information that is of critical importance for climate modelling. This presentation outlines the approach for the second phase of IMBIE, including the project organisation, the work programme and schedule, the main science goals, and its current status, and reviews the recent and historical contributions that the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets have made to global sea level rise.

Effect of Molecular Flexibility upon Ice Adhesion Shear Strength

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Joseph G.; Wohl, Christopher J.; Kreeger, Richard E.; Palacios, Jose; Knuth, Taylor; Hadley, Kevin

2016-01-01

Ice formation on aircraft surfaces effects aircraft performance by increasing weight and drag leading to loss of lift. Current active alleviation strategies involve pneumatic boots, heated surfaces, and usage of glycol based de-icing fluids. Mitigation or reduction of in-flight icing by means of a passive approach may enable retention of aircraft capabilities, i.e., no reduction in lift, while reducing the aircraft weight and mechanical complexity. Under a NASA Aeronautics Research Institute Seedling activity, the effect of end group functionality and chain length upon ice adhesion shear strength (IASS) was evaluated with the results indicating that chemical functionality and chain length (i.e. molecular flexibility) affected IASS. Based on experimental and modeling results, diamine monomers incorporating molecular flexibility as either a side chain or in between diamine functionalities were prepared, incorporated into epoxy resins that were subsequently used to fabricate coatings on aluminum substrates, and tested in a simulated icing environment. The IASS was found to be lower when molecular flexibility was incorporated in the polymer chain as opposed to a side chain.

Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence.

PubMed

Amstrup, Steven C; Deweaver, Eric T; Douglas, David C; Marcot, Bruce G; Durner, George M; Bitz, Cecilia M; Bailey, David A

2010-12-16

On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout and beyond the Arctic.

Summer 2007 and 2008 Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Context: OUTLOOK 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overland, J. E.; Eicken, H.; Wiggins, H. V.

2008-12-01

The Arctic is changing faster than the publication cycle for new information. In response, the SEARCH and DAMOCLES Programs initiated an OUTLOOK 2008 to provide broad-based communication and assessment within the arctic science community on the causes of rapid summer sea ice loss, synthesizing information from Arctic observing networks and model simulations. The question for summer 2008 was whether the previous loss of multi-year sea ice and delay in sea ice formation in autumn 2007 would still allow sufficient winter growth of sea ice thickness to last through the summer 2008, potentially allowing for recovery from the 2007 minimum. The answer is no; summer 2008 was a second sequential year of extremely low minimum sea ice extent. To organize OUTLOOK 2008, respondents were asked in May, June and July to provide a rationale and semi-quantitative assessment of arctic sea ice extent anticipated for September 2008. OUTLOOK 2008 supplemented information maintained by ice centers, universities and other data providers. Using a range of methods, all of the approximately 20 groups responded that summer sea ice would not return to climatological mean conditions, with a median response near the 2007 extent. The range of responses depended on the relative weight given to "initial conditions," e.g., age and thickness of sea ice at the end of spring, versus whether summer winds in 2008 would be as supportive for ice loss as in 2007. Initial conditions turned out to be a primary factor for summer 2008, with implications for continued sea ice loss in future years. OUTLOOK 2008 highlighted aspects of the observation and modeling efforts that require further attention such as interpretation of summer microwave signatures, in situ buoy measurements, and data assimilation in models. We appreciate the contributions from respondents and reviewers who made OUTLOOK 2008 a success.

Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amstrup, Steven C.; Deweaver, E.T.; Douglas, David C.; Marcot, B.G.; Durner, George M.; Bitz, C.M.; Bailey, D.A.

2010-01-01

On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the worlds polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout and beyond the Arctic. 

Suppressed midlatitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qigang; Cheng, Luyao; Chan, Duo; Yao, Yonghong; Hu, Haibo; Yao, Ying

2016-03-01

Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heat waves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH midlatitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation(AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH midlatitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.

Clouds enhance Greenland ice sheet mass loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Tricht, Kristof; Gorodetskaya, Irina V.; L'Ecuyer, Tristan; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Noel, Brice; Turner, David D.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.

2015-04-01

Clouds have a profound influence on both the Arctic and global climate, while they still represent one of the key uncertainties in climate models, limiting the fidelity of future climate projections. The potentially important role of thin liquid-containing clouds over Greenland in enhancing ice sheet melt has recently gained interest, yet current research is spatially and temporally limited, focusing on particular events, and their large scale impact on the surface mass balance remains unknown. We used a combination of satellite remote sensing (CloudSat - CALIPSO), ground-based observations and climate model (RACMO) data to show that liquid-containing clouds warm the Greenland ice sheet 94% of the time. High surface reflectivity (albedo) for shortwave radiation reduces the cloud shortwave cooling effect on the absorbed fluxes, while not influencing the absorption of longwave radiation. Cloud warming over the ice sheet therefore dominates year-round. Only when albedo values drop below ~0.6 in the coastal areas during summer, the cooling effect starts to overcome the warming effect. The year-round excess of energy due to the presence of liquid-containing clouds has an extensive influence on the mass balance of the ice sheet. Simulations using the SNOWPACK snow model showed not only a strong influence of these liquid-containing clouds on melt increase, but also on the increased sublimation mass loss. Simulations with the Community Earth System Climate Model for the end of the 21st century (2080-2099) show that Greenland clouds contain more liquid water path and less ice water path. This implies that cloud radiative forcing will be further enhanced in the future. Our results therefore urge the need for improving cloud microphysics in climate models, to improve future projections of ice sheet mass balance and global sea level rise.

Periodic fluctuations in deep water formation due to sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, R.

2012-12-01

During the last ice age, several abrupt warming events took place, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events. Their effects were felt globally, although the North Atlantic experienced the largest temperature increase. The leading hypothesis to explain their occurrence postulates that the warming was caused by abrupt disruptions of the North Atlantic Current due to meltwater discharge from destabilized ice sheets (Heinrich events). However, the number of warming events outnumber the those of ice-sheet collapse. Thus, the majority of D-O events are not attributed to surface freshwater anomalies, and the underlying mechanism behind their occurrence remain unexplained. Using a simple dynamical model of sea ice and an overturning circulation, I show the existence of self-sustained relaxation oscillations in the overturning circulation. The insulating effect of sea ice is shown to paradoxically lead to a net loss of heat from the top layer of the polar ocean when sea ice retreats. Repeated heat loss results in a denser top layer and a destabilized water column, which triggers convection. The convective state pulls the system out of its preferred mode of circulation, setting up relaxation oscillations. The period of oscillations in this case is linked to the geometry of the ocean basin, if solar forcing is assumed to remain constant. If appropriate glacial freshwater forcing is applied to the model, a pattern of oscillation is produced that bears remarkable similarity to the observed fluctuations in North Atlantic climate between 50,000 and 30,000 years before present.; Comparison of NGRIP δ 18-O (proxy for near surface air temperature) between 50,000 and 30,000 years before present, showing Bond cycles (left) with the model output when forced with appropriate glacial freshwater forcing (right).

The Response of Ice Sheets to Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snow, K.; Goldberg, D. N.; Holland, P. R.; Jordan, J. R.; Arthern, R. J.; Jenkins, A.

2017-12-01

West Antarctic Ice Sheet loss is a significant contributor to sea level rise. While the ice loss is thought to be triggered by fluctuations in oceanic heat at the ice shelf bases, ice sheet response to ocean variability remains poorly understood. Using a synchronously coupled ice-ocean model permitting grounding line migration, this study evaluates the response of an ice sheet to periodic variations in ocean forcing. Resulting oscillations in grounded ice volume amplitude is shown to grow as a nonlinear function of ocean forcing period. This implies that slower oscillations in climatic forcing are disproportionately important to ice sheets. The ice shelf residence time offers a critical time scale, above which the ice response amplitude is a linear function of ocean forcing period and below which it is quadratic. These results highlight the sensitivity of West Antarctic ice streams to perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at decadal time scales.

Ice core carbonyl sulfide measurements from a new South Pole ice core (SPICECORE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aydin, M.; Nicewonger, M. R.; Saltzman, E. S.

2017-12-01

Carbonyl sulfide (COS) is the most abundant sulfur gas in the troposphere with a present-day mixing ratio of about 500 ppt. Direct and indirect emissions from the oceans are the predominant sources of atmospheric COS. The primary removal mechanism is uptake by terrestrial plants during photosynthesis. Because plants do not respire COS, atmospheric COS levels are linked to terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP). Ancient air trapped in polar ice cores has been used to reconstruct COS records of the past atmosphere, which can be used to infer past GPP variability and potential changes in oceanic COS emission. We are currently analyzing samples from a newly drilled intermediate depth ice core from South Pole, Antarctica (SPICECORE). This core is advantageous for studying COS because the cold temperatures of South Pole ice lead to very slow rates of in situ loss due to hydrolysis. One hundred and eighty-four bubbly ice core samples have been analyzed to date with gas ages ranging from about 9.2 thousand (733 m depth) to 75 years (126 m depth) before present. After a 2% correction for gravitational enrichment in the firn, the mean COS mixing ratio for the data set is 312±15 ppt (±1s), with the data set median also equal to 312 ppt. The only significant long-term trend in the record is a 5-10% increase in COS during the last 2-3 thousand years of the Holocene. The SPICECORE data agree with previously published ice core COS records from other Antarctic sites during times of overlap, confirming earlier estimates of COS loss rates to in situ hydrolysis in ice cores. Antarctic ice core data place strict constraints on the COS mixing ratio and its range of variability in the southern hemisphere atmosphere during the last several millennia. Implications for the atmospheric COS budget will be discussed.

Reemergence of sea ice cover anomalies and the role of the sea ice-albedo feedback in CCSM simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deweaver, E. T.

2008-12-01

The dramatic sea ice decline of 2007 and lack of recovery in 2008 raise the question of a "tipping point" for Arctic sea ice, beyond which the transition to a seasonal sea ice state becomes abrupt and irreversible. The tipping point is essentially a "memory catastrophe", in which a dramatic loss of sea ice in one summer is "remembered" in reduced ice thickness over the winter season and leads to a comparably dramatic loss the following summer. The dominant contributor to this memory is presumably the sea ice - albedo feedback (SIAF), in which excess insolation absorbed due to low summer ice cover leads to a shorter ice growth season and hence thinner ice. While these dynamics are clearly important, they are difficult to quantify given the lack of long-term observations in the Arctic and the suddenness of the recent loss. Alternatively, we attempt to quantify the contribution of the SIAF to the year-to-year memory of sea ice cover anomalies in simulations of the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) under 20th century conditions. Lagged autocorrelation plots of sea ice area anomalies show that anomalies in one year tend to "reemerge" in the following year. Further experiments using a slab ocean model (SOM) are used to assess the contribution of oceanic processes to the year-to-year reemergence. This contribution is substantial, particularly in the winter season, and includes memory due to the standard mixed layer reemergence mechanism and low-frequency ocean heat transport anomalies. The contribution of the SIAF to persistence in the SOM experiment is determined through additional experiments in which the SIAF is disabled by fixing surface albedo to its climatological value regardless of sea ice concentration anomalies. SIAF causes a 50% increase in the magnitude of the anomalies but a relatively small increase in their persistence. Persistence is not dramatically increased because the enhancement of shortwave flux anomalies by SIAF is compensated by stronger turbulent heat flux losses in the cold season. The role of turbulent heat fluxes is somewhat inconsistent with the retrospective 20th century simulations from PIOMAS, in which increased insolation is balanced by longwave heat loss. By fitting the area anomaly time series for the SIAF and no-SIAF integrations to an AR1 process, the change in net feedback due to SIAF is calculated. The change in net feedback implies that SIAF increases the climate sensitivity of September sea ice to external forcing (greenhouse gas increases) by about 20%. The modest increase in sea ice sensitivity is confirmed by further climate change experiments with and without SIAF with the CCSM/SOM model. The small role for SIAF is somewhat surprising given the prevalence of "abrupt loss" events in CCSM climate change simulations. However, it is consistent with claims that the dominant factor in abrupt loss events is the sea ice thickness at the event onset.

Degradation of organic pollutants in/on snow and ice by singlet molecular oxygen (¹O₂*) and an organic triplet excited state.

PubMed

Bower, Jonathan P; Anastasio, Cort

2014-04-01

Singlet molecular oxygen (¹O₂*) can be a significant sink for a variety of electron-rich pollutants in surface waters and atmospheric drops. We recently found that ¹O₂* concentrations are enhanced by up to a factor of 10(4) on illuminated ice compared to in the equivalent liquid solution, suggesting that ¹O₂* could be an important oxidant for pollutants in snow. To examine this, here we study the degradation of three model organic pollutants: furfuryl alcohol (to represent furans), tryptophan (for aromatic amino acids), and bisphenol A (for phenols). Each compound was studied in illuminated aqueous solution and ice containing Rose Bengal (RB, a sensitizer for ¹O₂*) and sodium chloride (to adjust the concentration of total solutes). The RB-mediated loss of each organic compound is enhanced on illuminated ice compared to in solution, by factors of 6400 for furfuryl alcohol, 8300 for tryptophan, and 50 for bisphenol A for ice containing 0.065 mM total solutes. Rates of loss of furfuryl alcohol and tryptophan decrease at a higher total solute concentration, in qualitative agreement with predictions from freezing-point depression. In contrast, the loss of bisphenol A on ice is independent of total solute concentration. Relative to liquid tests, the enhanced loss of tryptophan on ice during control experiments made with deoxygenated solutions and solutions in D₂O show that the triplet excited state of Rose Bengal may also contribute to loss of pollutants on ice.

The Evolution of Remnant Ice at the Lunar South Pole from Diviner Surface Temperature Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elphic, Richard C.; Siegler, Mathew; Paige, David; Teodoro, Luis Filipe; Vasavada, Ashwin R.

2010-01-01

The Diviner lunar radiometer instrument aboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter mission has revealed large areas of lunar polar terrain with surface temperatures well below 100K. At these temperatures, the sublimation rate of water ice is well below 1 mm per billion years. In contrast, the loss rate at 120K is more than 1 meter of ice in that time consequently volatiles delivered to the coldest locations can be trapped for over 1 Ga, but will be quickly lost from warmer locales. Here we investigate the loss or retention of a layer of ice-bearing regolith at the lunar south poe, assuming contemporary surface temperature conditions and no other loss processes. We use an analytic solution for the one-dimensional diffusion equation of water ice, assuming an isothermal regolith with pore space comparable to mean grain size, 75 micrometers. Only the top meter of soil is assumed to be ice-bearing. We can then calculate the history of ice content with time based on local temperature, and predict what the epithermal neutron output would be in the presence of such a concentration of hydrogen. We compare the present, observed distribution of hydrogen with what one would expect from the temperature-dependent loss or retention of ice for various times since emplacement.

Former extent of glacier-like forms on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brough, Stephen; Hubbard, Bryn; Hubbard, Alun

2016-08-01

Mars' mid-latitude glacier-like forms (GLFs) have undergone substantial mass loss and recession since a hypothesised last martian glacial maximum (LMGM) stand. To date, there is a lack of knowledge of the nature and timing of the LMGM, the subsequent mass loss and whether this mass loss has been spatially variable. Here, we present the results of a population-scale inventory of recessional GLFs, derived from analysis of 1293 GLFs3 identified within Context Camera (CTX) imagery, to assess the distribution and controls on GLF recession. A total of 436 GLFs were identified showing strong evidence of recession: 197 in the northern hemisphere and 239 in the southern hemisphere. Relative to their parent populations, recessional GLFs are over-represented in the low latitude belts between 25 and 40° and in areas of high relief, suggesting that these zones exert some control over GLF sensitivity and response to forcing. This analysis is complemented by the reconstruction of the maximum extent and morphology of a specific GLF for which High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) derived digital elevation data are available. Using Nye's (Nye, J.F. [1951] Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond, Ser. a - Mat. Phys. Sci., 207, 554-572) perfect plastic approximation of ice flow applied to multiple flow-lines under an optimum yield strength of 22 kPa, we calculate that the reconstructed GLF has lost an area of 6.86 km2 with a corresponding volume loss of 0.31 km3 since the LMGM. Assuming the loss reconstructed at this GLF occurred at all mid-latitude GLFs yields a total planetary ice loss from Mars' GLFs of 135 km3, similar to the current ice volume in the European Alps on Earth.

Regional variability in sea ice melt in a changing Arctic

PubMed Central

Perovich, Donald K.; Richter-Menge, Jacqueline A.

2015-01-01

In recent years, the Arctic sea ice cover has undergone a precipitous decline in summer extent. The sea ice mass balance integrates heat and provides insight on atmospheric and oceanic forcing. The amount of surface melt and bottom melt that occurs during the summer melt season was measured at 41 sites over the time period 1957 to 2014. There are large regional and temporal variations in both surface and bottom melting. Combined surface and bottom melt ranged from 16 to 294 cm, with a mean of 101 cm. The mean ice equivalent surface melt was 48 cm and the mean bottom melt was 53 cm. On average, surface melting decreases moving northward from the Beaufort Sea towards the North Pole; however interannual differences in atmospheric forcing can overwhelm the influence of latitude. Substantial increases in bottom melting are a major contributor to ice losses in the Beaufort Sea, due to decreases in ice concentration. In the central Arctic, surface and bottom melting demonstrate interannual variability, but show no strong temporal trends from 2000 to 2014. This suggests that under current conditions, summer melting in the central Arctic is not large enough to completely remove the sea ice cover. PMID:26032323

Rapid Ice Loss at Vatnajokull,Iceland Since Late 1990s Constrained by Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, W.; Amelung, F.; Dixon, T. H.; Wdowinski, S.

2012-12-01

Synthetic aperture radar interferometry time series is applied over Vatnajokull, Iceland by using 15 years ERS data. Ice loss at Vatnajokull accelerates since late 1990s especially after 21th century. Clear uplift signal due to ice mass loss is detected. The rebound signal is generally linear and increases a little bit after 2000. The relative annual velocity (GPS station 7485 as reference) is about 12 mm/yr at the ice cap edge, which matches the previous studies using GPS. The standard deviation compared to 11 GPS stations in this area is about 2 mm/yr. A relative-value modeling method ignoring the effect of viscous flow is chosen assuming elastic half space earth. The final ice loss estimation - 83 cm/yr - matches the climatology model with ground observations. Small Baseline Subsets is applied for time series analysis. Orbit error coupling with long wavelength phase trend due to horizontal plate motion is removed based on a second polynomial model. For simplicity, we do not consider atmospheric delay in this area because of no complex topography and small-scale turbulence is eliminated well after long-term average when calculating the annual mean velocity. Some unwrapping error still exits because of low coherence. Other uncertainties can be the basic assumption of ice loss pattern and spatial variation of the elastic parameters. It is the first time we apply InSAR time series for ice mass balance study and provide detailed error and uncertainty analysis. The successful of this application proves InSAR as an option for mass balance study and it is also important for validation of different ice loss estimation techniques.

Ice Slurry Ingestion Leads to a Lower Net Heat Loss during Exercise in the Heat.

PubMed

Morris, Nathan B; Coombs, Geoff; Jay, Ollie

2016-01-01

To compare the reductions in evaporative heat loss from the skin (Esk) to internal heat loss (Hfluid) induced by ice slurry (ICE) ingestion relative to 37 °C fluid and the accompanying body temperature and local thermoeffector responses during exercise in warm, dry conditions (33.5 °C ± 1.4 °C; 23.7% ± 2.6% relative humidity [RH]). Nine men cycled at approximately 55% VO2peak for 75 min and ingested 3.2 mL · kg(-1) aliquots of 37 °C fluid or ICE after 15, 30, and 45 min of exercise. Metabolic heat production (M-W), rectal temperature (Tre), mean skin temperature (Tsk), whole-body sweat loss (WBSL), local sweat rate (LSR), and skin blood flow (SkBF) were measured throughout. Net heat loss (HLnet) and heat storage (S) were estimated using partitional calorimetry. Relative to the 37 °C trial, M-W was similar (P = 0.81) with ICE ingestion; however, the 200 ± 20 kJ greater Hfluid (P < 0.001) with ICE ingestion was overcompensated by a 381 ± 199-kJ lower Esk (P < 0.001). Net heat loss (HLnet) was consequently 131 ± 120 kJ lower (P = 0.01) and S was greater (P = 0.05) with ICE ingestion compared with 37 °C fluid ingestion. Concurrently, LSR and WBSL were lower by 0.16 ± 0.14 mg · min(-1) · cm(-2) (P < 0.01) and 191 ± 122 g (P < 0.001), respectively, and SkBF tended to be lower (P = 0.06) by 5.4%maxAU ± 13.4%maxAU in the ICE trial. Changes in Tre and Tsk were similar throughout exercise with ICE compared to 37 °C fluid ingestion. Relative to 37 °C, ICE ingestion caused disproportionately greater reductions in Esk relative to Hfluid, resulting in a lower HLnet and greater S. Mechanistically, LSR and possibly SkBF were suppressed independently of Tre or Tsk, reaffirming the concept of human abdominal thermoreception. From a heat balance perspective, recommendations for ICE ingestion during exercise in warm, dry conditions should be reconsidered.

Mass Gains of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Exceed Losses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Li, Jun; Robbins, John; Saba, Jack L.; Yi, Donghui; Brenner, Anita; Bromwich, David

2012-01-01

During 2003 to 2008, the mass gain of the Antarctic ice sheet from snow accumulation exceeded the mass loss from ice discharge by 49 Gt/yr (2.5% of input), as derived from ICESat laser measurements of elevation change. The net gain (86 Gt/yr) over the West Antarctic (WA) and East Antarctic ice sheets (WA and EA) is essentially unchanged from revised results for 1992 to 2001 from ERS radar altimetry. Imbalances in individual drainage systems (DS) are large (-68% to +103% of input), as are temporal changes (-39% to +44%). The recent 90 Gt/yr loss from three DS (Pine Island, Thwaites-Smith, and Marie-Bryd Coast) of WA exceeds the earlier 61 Gt/yr loss, consistent with reports of accelerating ice flow and dynamic thinning. Similarly, the recent 24 Gt/yr loss from three DS in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) is consistent with glacier accelerations following breakup of the Larsen B and other ice shelves. In contrast, net increases in the five other DS of WA and AP and three of the 16 DS in East Antarctica (EA) exceed the increased losses. Alternate interpretations of the mass changes driven by accumulation variations are given using results from atmospheric-model re-analysis and a parameterization based on 5% change in accumulation per degree of observed surface temperature change. A slow increase in snowfall with climate waRMing, consistent with model predictions, may be offsetting increased dynamic losses.

Insights into Spatial Sensitivities of Ice Mass Response to Environmental Change from the SeaRISE Ice Sheet Modeling Project I: Antarctica

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nowicki, Sophie; Bindschadler, Robert A.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Aschwanden, Andy; Bueler, Ed; Choi, Hyengu; Fastook, Jim; Granzow, Glen; Greve, Ralf; Gutowski, Gail;

Improved estimate of accelerated Antarctica ice mass loses from GRACE, Altimetry and surface mass balance from regional climate model output

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velicogna, I.; Sutterley, T. C.; A, G.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Ivins, E. R.

2016-12-01

We use Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) monthly gravity fields to determine the regional acceleration in ice mass loss in Antarctica for 2002-2016. We find that the total mass loss is controlled by only a few regions. In Antarctica, the Amundsen Sea (AS) sector and the Antarctic Peninsula account for 65% and 18%, respectively, of the total loss (186 ± 10 Gt/yr) mainly from ice dynamics. The AS sector contributes most of the acceleration in loss (9 ± 1 Gt/yr2 ), and Queen Maud Land, East Antarctica, is the only sector with a significant mass gain due to a local increase in SMB (57 ± 5 Gt/yr). We compare GRACE regional mass balance estimates with independent estimates from ICESat-1 and Operation IceBridge laser altimetry, CryoSat-2 radar altimetry, and surface mass balance outputs from RACMO2.3. In the Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica, an area experiencing rapid retreat and mass loss to the sea, we find good agreement between GRACE and altimetry estimates. Comparison of GRACE with these independent techniques in East Antarctic shows that GIA estimates from the new regional ice deglaciation models underestimate the GIA correction in the EAIS interior, which implies larger losses of the Antarctica ice sheet by about 70 Gt/yr. Sectors where we are observing the largest losses are closest to warm circumpolar water, and with polar constriction of the westerlies enhanced by climate warming, we expect these sectors to contribute more and more to sea level as the ice shelves that protect these glaciers will melt faster in contact with more heat from the surrounding oc

The Effect of Recent Decreases in Sea Ice Extent and Increases in SST on the Seasonal Availability of Arctic Cod (Boreogadus saida) to Seabirds in the Beaufort Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Divoky, G.; Druckenmiller, M. L.

2016-02-01

With major decreases in pan-Arctic summer sea ice extent steadily underway, the Beaufort Sea has been nearly ice-free in five of the last eight summers. This loss of a critical arctic marine habitat and the concurrent warming of the recently ice-free waters could potentially cause major changes in the biological oceanography of the Beaufort Sea and alter the distribution, abundance and condition of the region's upper trophic level predators that formerly relied on prey associated with sea ice or cold (<2°C) surface waters. Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida), the primary forage fish for seabirds in the Beaufort Sea, is part of the cryopelagic fauna associated with sea ice and is also found in adjacent ice-free waters. In the extreme western Beaufort Sea near Cooper Island, Arctic cod availability to breeding Black Guillemots (Cepphus grylle), a diving seabird, has declined since 2002. Guillemots are a good indicator of Arctic cod availability in surface waters and the upper water column as they feed at depths of 1-20m. Currently, when sea ice is absent from the nearshore and SST exceeds 4°C, guillemots are observed to seasonally shift from Arctic cod to nearshore demersal prey, with a resulting decrease in nestling survival and quality. Arctic cod is the primary prey for many of the seabirds utilizing the Beaufort Sea as a post-breeding staging area and migratory corridor in late summer and early fall. The loss of approximately 200-300 thousand sq km of summer sea ice habitat in recent years could be expected to affect the distribution, abundance, and movements of these species as there are few alternative fish resources in the region. We examine temporal and spatial variation in August sea ice extent and SST in the Beaufort Sea to determine the regions, periods and bird species that are potentially most affected as the Beaufort Sea transitions to becoming regularly ice-free in late summer.

Sea Ice on the Southern Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacobs, Stanley S.

1998-01-01

Year-round satellite records of sea ice distribution now extend over more than two decades, providing a valuable tool to investigate related characteristics and circulations in the Southern Ocean. We have studied a variety of features indicative of oceanic and atmospheric interactions with Antarctic sea ice. In the Amundsen & Bellingshausen Seas, sea ice extent was found to have decreased by approximately 20% from 1973 through the early 1990's. This change coincided with and probably contributed to recently warmer surface conditions on the west side of the Antarctic Peninsula, where air temperatures have increased by approximately 0.5 C/decade since the mid-1940's. The sea ice decline included multiyear cycles of several years in length superimposed on high interannual variability. The retreat was strongest in summer, and would have lowered the regional mean ice thickness, with attendant impacts upon vertical heat flux and the formation of snow ice and brine. The cause of the regional warming and loss of sea ice is believed to be linked to large-scale circulation changes in the atmosphere and ocean. At the eastern end of the Weddell Gyre, the Cosmonaut Polyna revealed greater activity since 1986, a recurrence pattern during recent winters and two possible modes of formation. Persistence in polynya location was noted off Cape Ann, where the coastal current can interact more strongly with the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. As a result of vorticity conservation, locally enhanced upwelling brings warmer deep water into the mixed layer, causing divergence and melting. In the Ross Sea, ice extent fluctuates over periods of several years, with summer minima and winter maxima roughly in phase. This leads to large interannual cycles of sea ice range, which correlate positively with meridinal winds, regional air temperatures and subsequent shelf water salinities. Deep shelf waters display considerable interannual variability, but have freshened by approximately 0.03/decade since the late 1950's. That could have slowed the thermohaline circulation beneath the Ross Ice Shelf and the properties or volume of local bottom water production.

Permafrost - Relation between ice content and dielectric losses at 100 K

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alvarez, R.

1973-01-01

The dielectric response of permafrost at 100 K and vacuums of around 10 ntorr is analyzed, varying its percent ice content from 1 to 18.6. The distributions obtained correspond to dielectric relaxations of the Cole-Cole type, with maximum losses occurring in the 30- to 600-Hz frequency range. The logarithms of such maxima depend linearly on the permafrost ice content, two regions of linear variation being defined above and below 3.6% ice content. Such relations point out the feasibility of determining ice content in permafrost by electromagnetic means.

Recent Increases in Snow Accumulation and Decreases in Sea-Ice Concentration Recorded in a Coastal NW Greenland Ice Core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osterberg, E. C.; Thompson, J. T.; Wong, G. J.; Hawley, R. L.; Kelly, M. A.; Lutz, E.; Howley, J.; Ferris, D. G.

2013-12-01

A significant rise in summer temperatures over the past several decades has led to widespread retreat of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) margin and surrounding sea ice. Recent observations from geodetic stations and GRACE show that ice mass loss progressed from South Greenland up to Northwest Greenland by 2005 (Khan et al., 2010). Observations from meteorological stations at the U.S. Thule Air Force Base, remote sensing platforms, and climate reanalyses indicate a 3.5C mean annual warming in the Thule region and a 44% decrease in summer (JJAS) sea-ice concentrations in Baffin Bay from 1980-2010. Mean annual precipitation near Thule increased by 12% over this interval, with the majority of the increase occurring in fall (SON). To improve projections of future ice loss and sea-level rise in a warming climate, we are currently developing multi-proxy records (lake sediment cores, ice cores, glacial geologic data, glaciological models) of Holocene climate variability and cryospheric response in NW Greenland, with a focus on past warm periods. As part of our efforts to develop a millennial-length ice core paleoclimate record from the Thule region, we collected and analyzed snow pit samples and short firn cores (up to 20 m) from the coastal region of the GIS (2Barrel site; 76.9317 N, 63.1467 W) and the summit of North Ice Cap (76.938 N, 67.671 W) in 2011 and 2012, respectively. The 2Barrel ice core was sampled using a continuous ice core melting system at Dartmouth, and subsequently analyzed for major anion and trace element concentrations and stable water isotope ratios. Here we show that the 2Barrel ice core spanning 1990-2010 records a 25% increase in mean annual snow accumulation, and is positively correlated (r = 0.52, p<0.01) with ERA-Interim precipitation. The 2Barrel annual sea-salt Na concentration is strongly correlated (r = 0.5-0.8, p<0.05) with summer and fall sea-ice concentrations in northern Baffin Bay near Thule (Figure 1). We hypothesize that the positive correlation represents a significant Na contribution from frost flowers growing on fall frazil ice. Ongoing analyses will evaluate the relationship between MSA concentrations and sea ice extent. Our results show that a deep ice core collected from this dynamic and climate-sensitive region of NW Greenland would produce a valuable record of late Holocene climate and sea ice extent.

Satellite-derived submarine melt rates and mass balance (2011-2015) for Greenland's largest remaining ice tongues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Nat; Straneo, Fiammetta; Heimbach, Patrick

2017-12-01

Ice-shelf-like floating extensions at the termini of Greenland glaciers are undergoing rapid changes with potential implications for the stability of upstream glaciers and the ice sheet as a whole. While submarine melting is recognized as a major contributor to mass loss, the spatial distribution of submarine melting and its contribution to the total mass balance of these floating extensions is incompletely known and understood. Here, we use high-resolution WorldView satellite imagery collected between 2011 and 2015 to infer the magnitude and spatial variability of melt rates under Greenland's largest remaining ice tongues - Nioghalvfjerdsbræ (79 North Glacier, 79N), Ryder Glacier (RG), and Petermann Glacier (PG). Submarine melt rates under the ice tongues vary considerably, exceeding 50 m a-1 near the grounding zone and decaying rapidly downstream. Channels, likely originating from upstream subglacial channels, give rise to large melt variations across the ice tongues. We compare the total melt rates to the influx of ice to the ice tongue to assess their contribution to the current mass balance. At Petermann Glacier and Ryder Glacier, we find that the combined submarine and aerial melt approximately balances the ice flux from the grounded ice sheet. At Nioghalvfjerdsbræ the total melt flux (14.2 ± 0.96 km3 a-1 w.e., water equivalent) exceeds the inflow of ice (10.2 ± 0.59 km3 a-1 w.e.), indicating present thinning of the ice tongue.

Frontal destabilization of Stonebreen, Edgeøya, Svalbard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strozzi, Tazio; Kääb, Andreas; Schellenberger, Thomas

2017-02-01

In consideration of the strong atmospheric warming that has been observed since the 1990s in polar regions there is a need to quantify mass loss of Arctic ice caps and glaciers and their contribution to sea level rise. In polar regions a large part of glacier ablation is through calving of tidewater glaciers driven by ice velocities and their variations. The Svalbard region is characterized by glaciers with rapid dynamic fluctuations of different types, including irreversible adjustments of calving fronts to a changing mass balance and reversible, surge-type activities. For large areas, however, we do not have much past and current information on glacier dynamic fluctuations. Recently, through frequent monitoring based on repeat optical and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite data, a number of zones of velocity increases have been observed at formerly slow-flowing calving fronts on Svalbard. Here we present the dynamic evolution of the southern lobe of Stonebreen on Edgeøya. We observe a slowly steady retreat of the glacier front from 1971 until 2011, followed by a strong increase in ice surface velocity along with a decrease of volume and frontal extension since 2012. The considerable losses in ice thickness could have made the tide-water calving glacier, which is grounded below sea level some 6 km inland from the 2014 front, more sensitive to surface meltwater reaching its bed and/or warm ocean water increasing frontal ablation with subsequent strong multi-annual ice-flow acceleration.

Ocean-Ice-Atmosphere Interactions off Sabrina and Adelie Coasts During NBP1402 and AU1402

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orsi, A. H.; Zielinski, N. J.; Webb, C.; Huber, B. A.

2015-12-01

Diverse interactions of winds, currents and ice around Antarctica dictate how, where and when the world's densest waters form, massive floating ice shelves and glaciers melt, gases are exchanged at the sea surface, and primary productivity. Compelled by recent rate estimates of East Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss, we contrast the paths and mixing histories of oceanic waters reaching the continental ice edge off the Sabrina and Adelie coasts relying on a the first synoptic shipboard measurements made by U.S. (NBP1402) and Australian (AU1402) scientists. Analysis of historical hydrography and sea ice concentration fields within the Mertz Polynya indicates the apparent effect of evolving ocean-ice- atmosphere interactions on the characteristics of local Shelf Water (SW) sources. A polynya dominated water mass structure similar to that observed off the Adelie Coast before the removal of the Mertz Ice Tongue was expected to the west of the Dalton Ice Tongue (DIT). However, there was no evidence of dense SW off Sabrina Coast during both summer cruises of 2014 and 2015, thus lessening the region's preconceived influence to global meridional overturning. Present sea ice production within the eastern Dalton Polynya is overshadowed by freshwater input to relatively stable interior upper waters. The Antarctic Coastal Current (ACoC) picks up distinct meltwater contributions along the DIT western flank and in front of the Moscow University Ice Shelf (MUIS) and Totten Glacier (TG). Unlike over other highly influential margins to global sea level rise, the main evidence of inflow and mixing of relatively warm oceanic waters is reduced to relatively cold thermocline water (< 0.3°C) from the continental slope. This source water enters the eastern trough off Sabrina Coast and is swiftly steered poleward by complex underlying topography. Meltwater export from beneath the MUIS and TG is observed at newly discovered trenches that effectively constrain sub-cavity inflow to low salinity near-freezing waters drawn from intermediate levels of the adjacent westward flowing ACoC.
Winds, currents and ice interactions observed off Sabrina Coast during NBP1402 and AU1402 are most likely widespread, in view of reported decadal freshening of upper waters over the Antarctic continental shelf and their localized AABW outflows.

Tidal influences on a future evolution of the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf cavity in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, Rachael D.; Hattermann, Tore; Howard, Susan L.; Padman, Laurie

2018-02-01

Recent modeling studies of ocean circulation in the southern Weddell Sea, Antarctica, project an increase over this century of ocean heat into the cavity beneath Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS). This increase in ocean heat would lead to more basal melting and a modification of the FRIS ice draft. The corresponding change in cavity shape will affect advective pathways and the spatial distribution of tidal currents, which play important roles in basal melting under FRIS. These feedbacks between heat flux, basal melting, and tides will affect the evolution of FRIS under the influence of a changing climate. We explore these feedbacks with a three-dimensional ocean model of the southern Weddell Sea that is forced by thermodynamic exchange beneath the ice shelf and tides along the open boundaries. Our results show regionally dependent feedbacks that, in some areas, substantially modify the melt rates near the grounding lines of buttressed ice streams that flow into FRIS. These feedbacks are introduced by variations in meltwater production as well as the circulation of this meltwater within the FRIS cavity; they are influenced locally by sensitivity of tidal currents to water column thickness (wct) and non-locally by changes in circulation pathways that transport an integrated history of mixing and meltwater entrainment along flow paths. Our results highlight the importance of including explicit tidal forcing in models of future mass loss from FRIS and from the adjacent grounded ice sheet as individual ice-stream grounding zones experience different responses to warming of the ocean inflow.

Cryosphere and climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hibler, William D., III; Thorndike, Alan S.

1992-01-01

This chapter will discuss two main issues related to the cryosphere and climate. One is the effect of sea ice and salinity gradients on ocean circulation, and in particular the possible role of sea ice transport on the ocean conveyer belt. The other is the effect of the cryosphere on climate, and in particular in high-latitude warming under increased CO2. In understanding the role of the cryosphere in both cases, it is useful to elucidate two types of toy sea ice models. Neither of these represents reality, but both are useful for illustrating the archetypal features of sea ice that control much of its large-scale behavior. The first model is a simple slab thermodynamic sea ice model as presented by Thorndike. In this model there are no dynamical effects and the thickness of ice is determined by surface heat budget and oceanic heat flux considerations, with the thickness of the ice critically affecting the effective conductivity whereby heat is transferred from the bottom ice boundary to the upper ice boundary. In this model all of the sea ice characteristics are controlled by the vertical heat fluxes from the atmosphere and ocean into the ice. The thickness is controlled by the ice's becoming an effective insulator as it thickens, thus reducing conductive heat loss to the atmosphere. A second model emphasizes the effects of dynamics. It considers the ice pack to be a collection of floes moving in response to synoptic wind fields and ocean currents. These motions create semipermanent leads (open areas) over which ice can grow rapidly.

Polychlorinated Biphenyls in a Temperate Alpine Glacier: 1. Effect of Percolating Meltwater on their Distribution in Glacier Ice.

PubMed

Pavlova, Pavlina Aneva; Jenk, Theo Manuel; Schmid, Peter; Bogdal, Christian; Steinlin, Christine; Schwikowski, Margit

2015-12-15

In Alpine regions, glaciers act as environmental archives and can accumulate significant amounts of atmospherically derived pollutants. Due to the current climate-warming-induced accelerated melting, these pollutants are being released at correspondingly higher rates. To examine the effect of melting on the redistribution of legacy pollutants in Alpine glaciers, we analyzed polychlorinated biphenyls in an ice core from the temperate Silvretta glacier, located in eastern Switzerland. This glacier is affected by surface melting in summer. As a result, liquid water percolates down and particles are enriched in the current annual surface layer. Dating the ice core was a challenge because meltwater percolation also affects the traditionally used parameters. Instead, we counted annual layers of particulate black carbon in the ice core, adding the years with negative glacier mass balance, that is, years with melting and subsequent loss of the entire annual snow accumulation. The analyzed samples cover the time period 1930-2011. The concentration of indicator PCBs (iPCBs) in the Silvretta ice core follows the emission history, peaking in the 1970s (2.5 ng/L). High PCB values in the 1990s and 1930s are attributed to meltwater-induced relocation within the glacier. The total iPCB load at the Silvretta ice core site is 5 ng/cm(2). A significant amount of the total PCB burden in the Silvretta glacier has been released to the environment.

Change in the Extent of Baffin Island's Penny Ice Cap in Response to Regional Warming, 1969 - 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, M. C.; Cormier, H. M.; Gardner, A. S.

2014-12-01

Glaciers are retreating globally in response to warmer atmospheric temperatures, adding large volumes of melt water to the world's oceans. The largest glacierized region and present-day contributor to sea level rise outside of the massive ice sheets is the Canadian Arctic. Recent work has shown that the glaciers of the southern Canadian Arctic (Baffin and Bylot Island) have experienced accelerated rates of ice loss in recent decades, but little is known regarding the spatial and temporal variations in rates of loss. For this study we examine in detail changes in the extent of the Penny Ice Cap (a proxy for ice loss) between 1969 and 2014 to better understand the climatic drivers of the recently observed accelerated rates of ice loss on Baffin Island. To do this, we reconstruct the extent of the ice cap for the year 1969 from historical maps and for the years 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2014 from Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI imagery. We use 2009 SPOT HRS imagery and a novel extent comparison algorithm to assess the accuracy of glacier extents derived from Landsat imagery. Regional temperature and precipitation records were used to explain the spatial pattern of change. Due to large variation in elevations, hypsometry was also investigated as a contributor to differences in rates of change across the ice cap. Preliminary results show overall retreat throughout the ice cap but with regional differences in area and length change on either side of the Ice Cap divide.

Investigating role of ice-ocean interaction on glacier dynamic: Results from numerical modeling applied to Petermann Glacier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nick, F. M.; van der Veen, C. J.; Vieli, A.; Pattyn, F.; Hubbard, A.; Box, J. E.

2010-12-01

Calving of icebergs and bottom melting from ice shelves accounts for roughly half the ice transferred from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the surrounding ocean, and virtually all of the ice loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Petermann Glacier (north Greenland) with its ~17 km wide and ~ 60 km long floating ice-shelf is experiencing high rates of bottom melting. The recent partial disintegration of its shelf (in August 2010) presents a natural experiment to investigate the dynamic response of the ice sheet to its shelf retreat. We apply a numerical ice flow model using a physically-based calving criterion based on crevasse depth to investigate the contribution of processes such as shelf disintegration, bottom melting, sea ice or sikkusak disintegration and surface run off to the mass balance of Petermann Glacier and assess its stability. Our modeling study provides insights into the role of ice-ocean interaction, and on response of Petermann Glacier to its recent massive ice loss.

Suppressed mid-latitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Q.

2016-12-01

Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heatwaves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature (SST) warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH mid-latitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH mid-latitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.

Weakening of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex by Arctic Sea-Ice Loss

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Baek-Min; Son, Seok-Woo; Min, Seung-Ki

2014-09-02

Successive cold winters of severely low temperatures in recent years have had critical social and economic impacts on the mid-latitude continents in the Northern Hemisphere. Although these cold winters are thought to be partly driven by dramatic losses of Arctic sea ice, the mechanism that links sea ice loss to cold winters remains a subject of debate. Here, by conducting observational analyses and model experiments, we show how Arctic sea ice loss and cold winters in extra-polar regions are dynamically connected through the polar stratosphere. We find that decreased sea ice cover during early winter months (November-December), especially over themore » Barents-Kara seas, enhance the upward propagation of planetary-scale waves with wavenumbers of 1 and 2, subsequently weakening the stratospheric polar vortex in mid-winter (January- February). The weakened polar vortex preferentially induces a negative phase of Arctic Oscillation at the surface, resulting in low temperatures in mid-latitudes.« less

Investigating ice shelf mass loss processes from continuous satellite altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fricker, H. A.

2017-12-01

The Antarctic Ice Sheet continually gains mass through snowfall over its large area and, to remain approximately in equilibrium, it sheds most of this excess mass through two processes, basal melting and iceberg calving, that both occur in the floating ice shelves surrounding the continent. Small amounts of mass are also lost by surface melting, which occurs on many ice shelves every summer to varying degrees, and has been linked to ice-shelf collapse via hydrofracture on ice shelves that have been pre-weakened. Ice shelves provide mechanical support to `buttress' seaward flow of grounded ice, so that ice-shelf thinning and retreat result in enhanced ice discharge to the ocean. Ice shelves are susceptible to changes in forcing from both the atmosphere and the ocean, which both change on a broad range of timescales to modify mass gains and losses at the surface and base, and from internal instabilities of the ice sheet itself. Mass loss from iceberg calving is episodic, with typical intervals between calving events on the order of decades. Since ice shelves are so vast, the only viable way to monitor them is with satellites. Here, we discuss results from satellite radar and laser altimeter data from one NASA satellite (ICESat), and four ESA satellites (ERS-1, ERS-2, Envisat, CryoSat-2) to obtain estimates of ice-shelf surface height since the early 1990s. The continuous time series show accelerated losses in total Antarctic ice-shelf volume from 1994 to 2017, and allow us to investigate the processes causing ice-shelf mass change. For Larsen C, much of the variability comes from changing atmospheric conditions affecting firn state. In the Amundsen Sea, the rapid thinning is a combination of accelerated ocean-driven thinning and ice dynamics. This long-term thinning signal is, however, is strongly modulated by ENSO-driven interannual variability. However, observations of ocean variability around Antarctica are sparse, since these regions are often covered in sea ice and difficult to access. Some innovative methods are being used to acquire these data, including airborne deployment of ALAMO profiling floats which we tested in the Ross Sea as part of the ROSETTA-Ice project. Combining these altimeter datasets and in situ ocean datasets will allow us to examine processes causing basal melting in the sub-ice-shelf cavities.

Circumpolar Deep Water transport and current structure at the Amundsen Sea shelf break

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Assmann, Karen M.; Wåhlin, Anna K.; Heywood, Karen J.; Jenkins, Adrian; Kim, Tae Wan; Lee, Sang Hoon

2017-04-01

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet has been losing mass at an increasing rate over the past decades. Ocean heat transport to the ice-ocean interface has been identified as an important contributor to this mass loss and the role it plays in ice sheet stability makes it crucial to understand its drivers in order to make accurate future projections of global sea level. While processes closer to the ice-ocean interface modulate this heat transport, its ultimate source is located in the deep basin off the continental shelf as a core of relatively warm, salty water underlying a colder, fresher shallow surface layer. To reach the marine terminating glaciers and the base of floating ice shelves, this warm, salty water mass must cross the bathymetric obstacle of the shelf break. Glacial troughs that intersect the Amundsen shelf break and deepen southwards towards the ice shelf fronts have been shown to play an important role in transporting warm, salty Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) towards the ice shelves. North of the shelf break, circulation in the Amundsen Sea occupies an intermediate regime between the eastward Antarctic Circumpolar Current that impinges on the shelf break in the Bellingshausen Sea and the westward southern limb of the Ross Gyre that follows the shelf break in the Ross Sea. Hydrographic and mooring observations and numerical model results at the mouth of the central shelf break trough leading to Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers show a westward wind-driven shelf break current overlying an eastward undercurrent that turns onto the shelf in the trough. It is thought that the existence of the latter feature facilitates the on-shelf transport of CDW. A less clearly defined shelf break depression further west acts as the main pathway for CDW to Dotson and eastern Getz Ice shelves. Model results indicate that a similar eastward undercurrent exists here driving the on-shelf transport of CDW. Two moorings on the upper slope east of the trough entrance show a persistent westward current in the CDW layer. We use hydrographic and ADCP sections to discuss the mechanisms that could be responsible for the formation of this feature and the implications for oceanic heat transport towards the western Amundsen ice shelves.

Tropical Glaciers in the Common Era: Papua, Indonesia, Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru and Kilimanjaro, Tanzania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, L. G.; Mosley-Thompson, E. S.; Davis, M. E.

2011-12-01

High-resolution ice core stratigraphic records of δ18O (temperature proxy) demonstrate that the current warming at high elevations in mid- to lower latitudes is unprecedented for at least the last two millennia, although at many sites the Early Holocene was much warmer than at present. Here we discuss the interaction of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability and warming trends as recorded in ice core records from high-altitude tropical glaciers and the implications of the warming trends for the future of these glaciers. ENSO has strong impacts on meteorological phenomena that either directly or indirectly affect most regions on the planet and their populations, particularly throughout the Tropics. Here we examine similarities and differences among ice core records from Papua (Indonesia), Quelccaya Ice Cap (Peru) and Kilimanjaro (Tanzania). Quelccaya, Earth's largest tropical ice cap, has provided continuous, annually-resolved proxy records of climatic and environmental variability preserved in many measurable parameters, especially oxygen and hydrogen isotopic ratios (δ18O, δD) and the net mass balance (accumulation) spanning the last 1800 years. The remarkable similarity between changes in the highland and coastal cultures of Peru and climate variability in the Andes, especially with regard to precipitation, implies a strong connection between prehistoric human activities and climate in this region. The well-documented ice loss on Quelccaya, Kilimanjaro in eastern Africa and the ice fields near Puncak Jaya in Papua, Indonesia presents a possible analog for glacier response in the tropics during the Holocene. The ongoing melting of these ice fields is consistent with model predictions of a vertical amplification of temperature in the Tropics. A sequence of over 50 recently exposed, rooted, soft-bodied plant deposits collected between 2002 and 2011 from the retreating margins of the Quelccaya ice cap provide a longer term perspective for the recent glacier retreat. The ongoing glacier retreat in the Tropics and associated loss of natural resources has dire implications for people living in these areas. These recent changes are examined in the context of the Common Era from a glacier derived paleoclimate perspective as recorded in the glaciers on the world's highest mountains.

Isolating the Liquid Cloud Response to Recent Arctic Sea Ice Variability Using Spaceborne Lidar Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrison, A. L.; Kay, J. E.; Chepfer, H.; Guzman, R.; Yettella, V.

2018-01-01

While the radiative influence of clouds on Arctic sea ice is known, the influence of sea ice cover on Arctic clouds is challenging to detect, separate from atmospheric circulation, and attribute to human activities. Providing observational constraints on the two-way relationship between sea ice cover and Arctic clouds is important for predicting the rate of future sea ice loss. Here we use 8 years of CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) spaceborne lidar observations from 2008 to 2015 to analyze Arctic cloud profiles over sea ice and over open water. Using a novel surface mask to restrict our analysis to where sea ice concentration varies, we isolate the influence of sea ice cover on Arctic Ocean clouds. The study focuses on clouds containing liquid water because liquid-containing clouds are the most important cloud type for radiative fluxes and therefore for sea ice melt and growth. Summer is the only season with no observed cloud response to sea ice cover variability: liquid cloud profiles are nearly identical over sea ice and over open water. These results suggest that shortwave summer cloud feedbacks do not slow long-term summer sea ice loss. In contrast, more liquid clouds are observed over open water than over sea ice in the winter, spring, and fall in the 8 year mean and in each individual year. Observed fall sea ice loss cannot be explained by natural variability alone, which suggests that observed increases in fall Arctic cloud cover over newly open water are linked to human activities.

Greater role for Atlantic inflows on sea-ice loss in the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polyakov, Igor V.; Pnyushkov, Andrey V.; Alkire, Matthew B.; Ashik, Igor M.; Baumann, Till M.; Carmack, Eddy C.; Goszczko, Ilona; Guthrie, John; Ivanov, Vladimir V.; Kanzow, Torsten; Krishfield, Richard; Kwok, Ronald; Sundfjord, Arild; Morison, James; Rember, Robert; Yulin, Alexander

2017-04-01

Arctic sea-ice loss is a leading indicator of climate change and can be attributed, in large part, to atmospheric forcing. Here, we show that recent ice reductions, weakening of the halocline, and shoaling of the intermediate-depth Atlantic Water layer in the eastern Eurasian Basin have increased winter ventilation in the ocean interior, making this region structurally similar to that of the western Eurasian Basin. The associated enhanced release of oceanic heat has reduced winter sea-ice formation at a rate now comparable to losses from atmospheric thermodynamic forcing, thus explaining the recent reduction in sea-ice cover in the eastern Eurasian Basin. This encroaching “atlantification” of the Eurasian Basin represents an essential step toward a new Arctic climate state, with a substantially greater role for Atlantic inflows.

Ice-borne prehistoric finds in the Swiss Alps reflect Holocene glacier fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grosjean, Martin; Suter, Peter J.; Trachsel, Mathias; Wanner, Heinz

2007-03-01

During the hot summer of 2003, reduction of an ice field in the Swiss Alps (Schnidejoch) uncovered spectacular archaeological hunting gear, fur, leather and woollen clothing and tools from four distinct windows of time: Neolithic Age (4900 to 4450 cal. yr BP), early Bronze Age (4100-3650 cal. yr BP), Roman Age (1st-3rd century AD), and Medieval times (8-9th century AD and 14-15th century AD). Transalpine routes connecting northern Italy with the northern Alps during these slots is consistent with late Holocene maximum glacier retreat. The age cohorts of the artefacts are separated which is indicative of glacier advances when the route was difficult and not used for transit. The preservation of Neolithic leather indicates permanent ice cover at that site from ca. 4900 cal. yr BP until AD 2003, implying that the ice cover was smaller in 2003 than at any time during the last 5000 years. Current glacier retreat is unprecedented since at least that time. This is highly significant regarding the interpretation of the recent warming and the rapid loss of ice in the Alps. Copyright

Geological evidence for solid-state convection in Europa's ice shell.

PubMed

Pappalardo, R T; Head, J W; Greeley, R; Sullivan, R J; Pilcher, C; Schubert, G; Moore, W B; Carr, M H; Moore, J M; Belton, M J; Goldsby, D L

1998-01-22

The ice-rich surface of the jovian satellite Europa is sparsely cratered, suggesting that this moon might be geologically active today. Moreover, models of the satellite's interior indicate that tidal interactions with Jupiter might produce enough heat to maintain a subsurface liquid water layer. But the mechanisms of interior heat loss and resurfacing are currently unclear, as is the question of whether Europa has (or had at one time) a liquid water ocean. Here we report on the morphology and geological interpretation of distinct surface features-pits, domes and spots-discovered in high-resolution images of Europa obtained by the Galileo spacecraft. The features are interpreted as the surface manifestation of diapirs, relatively warm localized ice masses that have risen buoyantly through the subsurface. We find that the formation of the features can be explained by thermally induced solid-state convection within an ice shell, possibly overlying a liquid water layer. Our results are consistent with the possibility that Europa has a liquid water ocean beneath a surface layer of ice, but further tests and observations are needed to demonstrate this conclusively.

Geological evidence for solid-state convection in Europa's ice shell

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pappalardo, R.T.; Head, J.W.; Greeley, R.; Sullivan, R.J.; Pilcher, C.; Schubert, G.; Moore, W.B.; Carr, M.H.; Moore, Johnnie N.; Belton, M.J.S.; Goldsby, D.L.

1998-01-01

The ice-rich surface of the jovian satellite Europa is sparsely cratered, suggesting that this moon might be geologically active today. Moreover, models of the satellite's interior indicate that tidal interactions with Jupiter might produce enough heat to maintain a subsurface liquid water layer. But the mechanisms of interior heat loss and resurfacing are currently unclear, as is the question of whether Europa has (or had at one time) a liquid water ocean. Here we report on the morphology and geological interpretation of distinct surface features-pits, domes and spots-discovered in high-resolution images of Europa obtained by the Galileo spacecraft. The features are interpreted as the surface manifestation of diapirs, relatively warm localized ice masses that have risen buoyantly through the subsurface. We find that the formation of the features can be explained by thermally induced solid-state convection within an ice shell, possibly overlying a liquid water layer. Our results are consistent with the possibility that Europa has a liquid water ocean beneath a surface layer of ice, but further tests and observations are needed to demonstrate this conclusively.

40 Years of Glacier Change across the Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, J. M.; Schaefer, J. M.; Rupper, S.

2017-12-01

Himalayan glaciers are central to societies, ecologies, and landscapes in South Asia. Retreating glaciers have been observed in the Himalayas from in-situ and satellite remote sensing measurements, yet different approaches provide a wide range of mass budget estimates. As glaciers respond dynamically to climate over decades and centuries, more observations of past glacier states are needed to gain perspective on existing shorter-timespan ice loss estimates, minimize effects of interannual variability, and to robustly evaluate glacier dynamics. Here we use a new suite of DEMs (digital elevation models) to estimate geodetic mass balance for over 1000 Himalayan glaciers spanning a 2000 km transect, during the years 1975-2000 and 2001-2016. Recent advances in DEM extraction from declassified Hexagon filmstrips, along with new public access to the global ASTER database have allowed for this large-scale analysis of regional ice loss. An average trendline (using a 30-glacier moving-window) reveals a spatially coherent ice loss signal across the entire transect during both periods, consistent with atmospheric warming as the primary Himalaya-wide driver of change. Our estimate of mean annual ice losses during the more recent period is approximately twice as negative (-0.39 ± 0.1 m.w.e. a-1) compared to the 1975-2000 baseline (-0.18 ± 0.1 m.w.e. a-1). This two-fold acceleration of ice loss during the 21st century agrees with the global average, parallel with recent observations of increasing rates of sea level rise. These surface-integrated geodetic mass balances are negligibly influenced by ice flow dynamics, thus are indicative of climate-driven glacier responses. Further analyses utilizing satellite-derived ice surface velocities will afford deconvolution of the surface mass balance and ice fluxes, providing additional insights into the dynamic responses of the glaciers.

Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet - Ice Surface Velocities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, S. B.; Ahlstrom, A. P.; Boncori, J. M.; Dall, J.

2011-12-01

In 2007, the Danish Ministry of Climate and Energy launched the Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE) as an ongoing effort to assess changes in the mass budget of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Iceberg calving from the outlet glaciers of the Greenland Ice Sheet, often termed the ice-dynamic mass loss, is responsible for an important part of the mass loss during the last decade. To quantify this part of the mass loss, we combine airborne surveys yielding ice-sheet thickness along the entire margin, with surface velocities derived from satellite synthetic-aperture radar (SAR). In order to derive ice sheet surface velocities from SAR a processing chain has been developed for GEUS by DTU Space based on a commercial software package distributed by GAMMA Remote Sensing. The processor, named SUSIE (Scripts and Utilities for SAR Ice-motion Estimation), can use both differential SAR interferometry and offset-tracking techniques to measure the horizontal velocity components, providing also an estimate of the corresponding measurement error. So far surface velocities have been derived for a number of sites including Nioghalvfjerdsfjord Glacier, the Kangerlussuaq region, the Nuuk region, Helheim Glacier and Daugaard-Jensen Glacier using data from ERS-1/ERS-2, ENVISAT ASAR and ALOS Palsar. Here we will present these first results.

Calving fluxes and basal melt rates of Antarctic ice shelves.

PubMed

Depoorter, M A; Bamber, J L; Griggs, J A; Lenaerts, J T M; Ligtenberg, S R M; van den Broeke, M R; Moholdt, G

2013-10-03

Iceberg calving has been assumed to be the dominant cause of mass loss for the Antarctic ice sheet, with previous estimates of the calving flux exceeding 2,000 gigatonnes per year. More recently, the importance of melting by the ocean has been demonstrated close to the grounding line and near the calving front. So far, however, no study has reliably quantified the calving flux and the basal mass balance (the balance between accretion and ablation at the ice-shelf base) for the whole of Antarctica. The distribution of fresh water in the Southern Ocean and its partitioning between the liquid and solid phases is therefore poorly constrained. Here we estimate the mass balance components for all ice shelves in Antarctica, using satellite measurements of calving flux and grounding-line flux, modelled ice-shelf snow accumulation rates and a regional scaling that accounts for unsurveyed areas. We obtain a total calving flux of 1,321 ± 144 gigatonnes per year and a total basal mass balance of -1,454 ± 174 gigatonnes per year. This means that about half of the ice-sheet surface mass gain is lost through oceanic erosion before reaching the ice front, and the calving flux is about 34 per cent less than previous estimates derived from iceberg tracking. In addition, the fraction of mass loss due to basal processes varies from about 10 to 90 per cent between ice shelves. We find a significant positive correlation between basal mass loss and surface elevation change for ice shelves experiencing surface lowering and enhanced discharge. We suggest that basal mass loss is a valuable metric for predicting future ice-shelf vulnerability to oceanic forcing.

Could a new ice core offer an insight into the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the last interglacial?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulvaney, R.; Hindmarsh, R. C.

2013-12-01

Vaughan et al., in their 2011 paper 'Potential Seaways across West Antarctica' (Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 12, Q10004, doi:10.1029/2011GC003688), offer the intriguing prospect that substantial ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the previous interglacial period might have resulted in the opening of a seaway between the Weddell Sea and the Amundsen Sea. One of their potential seaways passes between the south western corner of the present Ronne Ice Shelf and the Pine Island Bay, through what is currently the course of the Rutford Ice Stream, between the Ellsworth Mountains and the Fletcher Promontory. To investigate whether this seaway could have existed (and to recover a paleoclimate and ice sheet history from the Weddell Sea), a team from the British Antarctic Survey and the Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l'Environnement drilled an ice core from a close to a topographic dome in the ice surface on the Fletcher Promontory in January 2012, reaching the bedrock at 654.3m depth from the surface. The site was selected to penetrate directly through the centre of a Raymond cupola observed in internal radar reflections from the ice sheet, with the intention that this would ensure we obtained the oldest ice available from the Fletcher Promontory. The basal ice sheet temperature measured was -18°C, implying the oldest ice would not have melted away from the base, while the configuration of the Raymond cupola in the radar horizons suggested stability in the ice dome topography during the majority of the Holocene. Our hypothesis is that chemical analysis of the ice core will reveal whether the site was ever relatively close to open sea water or ice shelf in the Rutford channel 20 km distant, rather than the current 700 km distance to sea ice/open water in either the Weddell Sea or the Amundsen Sea. While we do not yet have the chemistry data to test this hypothesis, in this poster we will discuss whether there is in reality any potential local meteoric ice remaining from the previous interglacial that could provide the evidence we need. We show likely age-depth models in an ice dome with a pronounced Raymond cupola and flat bedrock. The evidence from the stable water isotope temperature history from the site shows the Last Glacial Maximum/Holocene boundary substantially above the bedrock, implying the possibility of much older ice in the lowest ice layers.

Pressure-Induced Melting of Confined Ice.

PubMed

Sotthewes, Kai; Bampoulis, Pantelis; Zandvliet, Harold J W; Lohse, Detlef; Poelsema, Bene

2017-12-26

The classic regelation experiment of Thomson in the 1850s deals with cutting an ice cube, followed by refreezing. The cutting was attributed to pressure-induced melting but has been challenged continuously, and only lately consensus emerged by understanding that compression shortens the O:H nonbond and lengthens the H-O bond simultaneously. This H-O elongation leads to energy loss and lowers the melting point. The hot debate survived well over 150 years, mainly due to a poorly defined heat exchange with the environment in the experiment. In our current experiment, we achieved thermal isolation from the environment and studied the fully reversible ice-liquid water transition for water confined between graphene and muscovite mica. We observe a transition from two-dimensional (2D) ice into a quasi-liquid phase by applying a pressure exerted by an atomic force microscopy tip. At room temperature, the critical pressure amounts to about 6 GPa. The transition is completely reversible: refreezing occurs when the applied pressure is lifted. The critical pressure to melt the 2D ice decreases with temperature, and we measured the phase coexistence line between 293 and 333 K. From a Clausius-Clapeyron analysis, we determine the latent heat of fusion of two-dimensional ice at 0.15 eV/molecule, being twice as large as that of bulk ice.

Regional variability in sea ice melt in a changing Arctic.

PubMed

Perovich, Donald K; Richter-Menge, Jacqueline A

2015-07-13

In recent years, the Arctic sea ice cover has undergone a precipitous decline in summer extent. The sea ice mass balance integrates heat and provides insight on atmospheric and oceanic forcing. The amount of surface melt and bottom melt that occurs during the summer melt season was measured at 41 sites over the time period 1957 to 2014. There are large regional and temporal variations in both surface and bottom melting. Combined surface and bottom melt ranged from 16 to 294 cm, with a mean of 101 cm. The mean ice equivalent surface melt was 48 cm and the mean bottom melt was 53 cm. On average, surface melting decreases moving northward from the Beaufort Sea towards the North Pole; however interannual differences in atmospheric forcing can overwhelm the influence of latitude. Substantial increases in bottom melting are a major contributor to ice losses in the Beaufort Sea, due to decreases in ice concentration. In the central Arctic, surface and bottom melting demonstrate interannual variability, but show no strong temporal trends from 2000 to 2014. This suggests that under current conditions, summer melting in the central Arctic is not large enough to completely remove the sea ice cover. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

The performance of probiotic fermented sheep milk and ice cream sheep milk in inhibiting enamel mineral loss.

PubMed

Nadelman, P; Frazão, J V; Vieira, T I; Balthazar, C F; Andrade, M M; Alexandria, A K; Cruz, A G; Fonseca-Gonçalves, A; Maia, L C

2017-07-01

The study aimed to evaluate the effects of two different sheep milk-based food matrices - fermented sheep milk and ice cream - with added probiotic bacteria (Lactobacillus casei 431) on dental enamel subjected to an in vitro highly cariogenic challenge. Sixty enamel blocks were selected and randomly allocated into five treatment groups (n=12): conventional fermented sheep milk (CFSM), probiotic fermented sheep milk (PFSM), conventional sheep milk ice cream (CSMIC), probiotic sheep milk ice cream (PSMIC) and control using deionized water. The blocks were subjected to highly cariogenic pH cycling and the products were applied (5min), in a blinded way, once a day to simulate a daily use for 8 consecutive days. A microhardness test was performed before and after the treatment to estimate the percentage of microhardness surface loss (% SML). Scanning electronic microscopy (SEM) was performed to confirm the mineral loss. All groups had lost microhardness after the experiment. However, CFSM and PFSM exhibited the most positive findings when compared to the control in both ice creams. Scanning electron microscopy showed less mineral loss in CFSM and PFSM compared with CSMIC, PSMIC and control after the cariogenic challenge. Overall, fermented milk decreased mineral loss from enamel subjected to a highly cariogenic challenge, regardless of the presence of probiotics in their composition, which had a higher efficacy compared to ice cream. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ancient Yedoma carbon loss: primed by ice wedge thaw?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dowdy, K. L.; Vonk, J. E.; Mann, P. J.; Zimov, N.; Bulygina, E. B.; Davydova, A.; Spencer, R. G.; Holmes, R. M.

2012-12-01

Northeast Siberian permafrost is dominated by frozen Yedoma deposits containing ca. 500 Gt of carbon, nearly a quarter of northern permafrost organic carbon (OC). Yedoma deposits are Pleistocene-age alluvial and/or aeolian accumulations characterized by high ice wedge content (~50%), making them particularly vulnerable to a warming climate and to surface collapse upon thaw. Dissolved OC in streams originating primarily from Yedoma has been shown to be highly biolabile, relative to waters containing more modern OC. The cause of this biolability, however, remains speculative. Here we investigate the influence of ice wedge input upon the bioavailability of Yedoma within streams from as a potential cause of Yedoma carbon biolability upon release into the Kolyma River from the thaw-eroding river exposures of Duvannyi Yar, NE Siberia. We measured biolability on (1) ice wedge, Kolyma, and Yedoma leachate controls; (2) ice wedge and Kolyma plus Yedoma OC (8 g/L); and (3) varying ratios of ice wedge water to Kolyma river water. Biolability assays were conducted using both 5-day BOD (biological oxygen demand) and 11-day BDOC (biodegradable dissolved organic carbon) incubations. We found that ancient DOC in Yedoma soil leachate alone was highly biolabile with losses of 52±0.1% C over a 5-day BOD incubation. Similarly, DOC contained in pure ice wedge water was found to be biolabile, losing 21±0% C during a 5-day BOD incubation. Increased ice wedge contributions led to higher overall C losses in identical Yedoma soil leachates, with 8.9±0.6% losses of Yedoma C with 100% ice wedge water, 7.1±1% (50% ice wedge/ 50% Kolyma) and 5±0.3% with 100% Kolyma River water. We discuss potential mechanisms for the increased loss of ancient C using associated measurements of nutrient availability, carbon quality (CDOM/FDOM) and extracellular enzyme activity rates. Our initial results indicate that ice wedge meltwater forming Yedoma streams makes Yedoma OC more bioavailable than it would be if mixed with Kolyma River water alone, suggesting that leach water origin acts as a control on the turnover of old C. The higher reactivity of Yedoma OC in ice wedge meltwater compared to Kolyma River water suggests that further ice wedge and permafrost thaw in Yedoma deposits will likely result in increased CO2 flux into the atmosphere.

Sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Interglacial Climate Forcing: MIS 5e Versus MIS 11

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rachmayani, Rima; Prange, Matthias; Lunt, Daniel J.; Stone, Emma J.; Schulz, Michael

2017-11-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is thought to have contributed substantially to high global sea levels during the interglacials of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e and 11. Geological evidence suggests that the mass loss of the GrIS was greater during the peak interglacial of MIS 11 than MIS 5e, despite a weaker boreal summer insolation. We address this conundrum by using the three-dimensional thermomechanical ice sheet model Glimmer forced by Community Climate System Model version 3 output for MIS 5e and MIS 11 interglacial time slices. Our results suggest a stronger sensitivity of the GrIS to MIS 11 climate forcing than to MIS 5e forcing. Besides stronger greenhouse gas radiative forcing, the greater MIS 11 GrIS mass loss relative to MIS 5e is attributed to a larger oceanic heat transport toward high latitudes by a stronger Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The vigorous MIS 11 ocean overturning, in turn, is related to a stronger wind-driven salt transport from low to high latitudes promoting North Atlantic Deep Water formation. The orbital insolation forcing, which causes the ocean current anomalies, is discussed.

Greenland meltwater storage in firn limited by near-surface ice formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machguth, Horst; Macferrin, Mike; van As, Dirk; Box, Jason E.; Charalampidis, Charalampos; Colgan, William; Fausto, Robert S.; Meijer, Harro A. J.; Mosley-Thompson, Ellen; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

2016-04-01

Approximately half of Greenland’s current annual mass loss is attributed to runoff from surface melt. At higher elevations, however, melt does not necessarily equal runoff, because meltwater can refreeze in the porous near-surface snow and firn. Two recent studies suggest that all or most of Greenland’s firn pore space is available for meltwater storage, making the firn an important buffer against contribution to sea level rise for decades to come. Here, we employ in situ observations and historical legacy data to demonstrate that surface runoff begins to dominate over meltwater storage well before firn pore space has been completely filled. Our observations frame the recent exceptional melt summers in 2010 and 2012 (refs ,), revealing significant changes in firn structure at different elevations caused by successive intensive melt events. In the upper regions (more than ~1,900 m above sea level), firn has undergone substantial densification, while at lower elevations, where melt is most abundant, porous firn has lost most of its capability to retain meltwater. Here, the formation of near-surface ice layers renders deep pore space difficult to access, forcing meltwater to enter an efficient surface discharge system and intensifying ice sheet mass loss earlier than previously suggested.

Factors affecting projected Arctic surface shortwave heating and albedo change in coupled climate models.

PubMed

Holland, Marika M; Landrum, Laura

2015-07-13

We use a large ensemble of simulations from the Community Earth System Model to quantify simulated changes in the twentieth and twenty-first century Arctic surface shortwave heating associated with changing incoming solar radiation and changing ice conditions. For increases in shortwave absorption associated with albedo reductions, the relative influence of changing sea ice surface properties and changing sea ice areal coverage is assessed. Changes in the surface sea ice properties are associated with an earlier melt season onset, a longer snow-free season and enhanced surface ponding. Because many of these changes occur during peak solar insolation, they have a considerable influence on Arctic surface shortwave heating that is comparable to the influence of ice area loss in the early twenty-first century. As ice area loss continues through the twenty-first century, it overwhelms the influence of changes in the sea ice surface state, and is responsible for a majority of the net shortwave increases by the mid-twenty-first century. A comparison with the Arctic surface albedo and shortwave heating in CMIP5 models indicates a large spread in projected twenty-first century change. This is in part related to different ice loss rates among the models and different representations of the late twentieth century ice albedo and associated sea ice surface state. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Factors affecting projected Arctic surface shortwave heating and albedo change in coupled climate models

PubMed Central

Holland, Marika M.; Landrum, Laura

2015-01-01

We use a large ensemble of simulations from the Community Earth System Model to quantify simulated changes in the twentieth and twenty-first century Arctic surface shortwave heating associated with changing incoming solar radiation and changing ice conditions. For increases in shortwave absorption associated with albedo reductions, the relative influence of changing sea ice surface properties and changing sea ice areal coverage is assessed. Changes in the surface sea ice properties are associated with an earlier melt season onset, a longer snow-free season and enhanced surface ponding. Because many of these changes occur during peak solar insolation, they have a considerable influence on Arctic surface shortwave heating that is comparable to the influence of ice area loss in the early twenty-first century. As ice area loss continues through the twenty-first century, it overwhelms the influence of changes in the sea ice surface state, and is responsible for a majority of the net shortwave increases by the mid-twenty-first century. A comparison with the Arctic surface albedo and shortwave heating in CMIP5 models indicates a large spread in projected twenty-first century change. This is in part related to different ice loss rates among the models and different representations of the late twentieth century ice albedo and associated sea ice surface state. PMID:26032318

78 FR 70851 - Airworthiness Directives; The Boeing Company Airplanes

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-27

... crystal icing (ICI) conditions at high altitudes, and to prohibit operation in moderate and severe ICI... temporary engine thrust loss, and other engine-related events that occurred in ice crystal icing (ICI... conditions that included ice crystal icing. This type of icing does not appear on radar due to its low...

ICESat-2, its retrievals of ice sheet elevation change and sea ice freeboard, and potential synergies with CryoSat-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neumann, Thomas; Markus, Thorsten; Smith, Benjamin; Kwok, Ron

2017-04-01

Understanding the causes and magnitudes of changes in the cryosphere remains a priority for Earth science research. Over the past decade, NASA's and ESA's Earth-observing satellites have documented a decrease in both the areal extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice, and an ongoing loss of grounded ice from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Understanding the pace and mechanisms of these changes requires long-term observations of ice-sheet mass, sea-ice thickness, and sea-ice extent. NASA's ICESat-2 mission is the next-generation space-borne laser altimeter mission and will use three pairs of beams, each pair separated by about 3 km across-track with a pair spacing of 90 m. The spot size is 17 m with an along-track sampling interval of 0.7 m. This measurement concept is a result of the lessons learned from the original ICESat mission. The multi-beam approach is critical for removing the effects of ice sheet surface slope from the elevation change measurements of most interest. For sea ice, the dense spatial sampling (eliminating along-track gaps) and the small footprint size are especially useful for sea surface height measurements in the, often narrow, leads needed for sea ice freeboard and ice thickness retrievals. Currently, algorithms are being developed to calculate ice sheet elevation change and sea ice freeboard from ICESat-2 data. The orbits of ICESat-2 and Cryosat-2 both converge at 88 degrees of latitude, though the orbit altitude differences result in different ground track patterns between the two missions. This presentation will present an overview of algorithm approaches and how ICESat-2 and Cryosat-2 data may augment each other.

Antarctic sub-shelf melt rates via SIMPEL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reese, Ronja; Albrecht, Torsten; Winkelmann, Ricarda

2017-04-01

Ocean-induced melting below ice-shelves is currently suspected to be the dominant cause of mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (e.g. Depoorter et al. 2013). Although thinning of ice shelves does not directly contribute to sea-level rise, it may have a significant indirect impact through the potential of ice shelves to buttress their adjacent ice sheet. Hence, an appropriate representation of sub-shelf melt rates is essential for modelling the evolution of ice sheets with marine terminating outlet glaciers. Due to computational limits of fully-coupled ice and ocean models, sub-shelf melt rates are often parametrized in large-scale or long-term simulations (e.g. Matin et al. 2011, Pollard & DeConto 2012). These parametrizations usually depend on the depth of the ice shelf base or its local slope but do not include the physical processes in ice shelf cavities. Here, we present the Sub Ice shelf Melt Potsdam modEL (SIMPEL) which mimics the first-order large-scale circulation in ice shelf cavities based on an ocean box model (Olbers & Hellmer, 2010), implemented in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (Bueler & Brown 2009, Winkelmann et al. 2011, www.pism-docs.org). In SIMPEL, ocean water is transported at depth towards the grounding line where sub-shelf melt rates are highest, and then rises along the shelf base towards the calving front where refreezing can occur. Melt rates are computed by a description of ice-ocean interaction commonly used in high-resolution models (McPhee 1992, Holland & Jenkins 1999). This enables the model to capture a wide-range of melt rates, comparable to the observed range for Antarctic ice shelves (Rignot et al. 2013).

Mapping Greenland’s mass loss in space and time

PubMed Central

Harig, Christopher; Simons, Frederik J.

2012-01-01

The melting of polar ice sheets is a major contributor to global sea-level rise. Early estimates of the mass lost from the Greenland ice cap, based on satellite gravity data collected by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, have widely varied. Although the continentally and decadally averaged estimated trends have now more or less converged, to this date, there has been little clarity on the detailed spatial distribution of Greenland’s mass loss and how the geographical pattern has varied on relatively shorter time scales. Here, we present a spatially and temporally resolved estimation of the ice mass change over Greenland between April of 2002 and August of 2011. Although the total mass loss trend has remained linear, actively changing areas of mass loss were concentrated on the southeastern and northwestern coasts, with ice mass in the center of Greenland steadily increasing over the decade. PMID:23169646

Animal physiology. Summer declines in activity and body temperature offer polar bears limited energy savings.

PubMed

Whiteman, J P; Harlow, H J; Durner, G M; Anderson-Sprecher, R; Albeke, S E; Regehr, E V; Amstrup, S C; Ben-David, M

2015-07-17

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) summer on the sea ice or, where it melts, on shore. Although the physiology of "ice" bears in summer is unknown, "shore" bears purportedly minimize energy losses by entering a hibernation-like state when deprived of food. Such a strategy could partially compensate for the loss of on-ice foraging opportunities caused by climate change. However, here we report gradual, moderate declines in activity and body temperature of both shore and ice bears in summer, resembling energy expenditures typical of fasting, nonhibernating mammals. Also, we found that to avoid unsustainable heat loss while swimming, bears employed unusual heterothermy of the body core. Thus, although well adapted to seasonal ice melt, polar bears appear susceptible to deleterious declines in body condition during the lengthening period of summer food deprivation. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet since AD 1900.

PubMed

Kjeldsen, Kristian K; Korsgaard, Niels J; Bjørk, Anders A; Khan, Shfaqat A; Box, Jason E; Funder, Svend; Larsen, Nicolaj K; Bamber, Jonathan L; Colgan, William; van den Broeke, Michiel; Siggaard-Andersen, Marie-Louise; Nuth, Christopher; Schomacker, Anders; Andresen, Camilla S; Willerslev, Eske; Kjær, Kurt H

2015-12-17

The response of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) to changes in temperature during the twentieth century remains contentious, largely owing to difficulties in estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of ice mass changes before 1992, when Greenland-wide observations first became available. The only previous estimates of change during the twentieth century are based on empirical modelling and energy balance modelling. Consequently, no observation-based estimates of the contribution from the GIS to the global-mean sea level budget before 1990 are included in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here we calculate spatial ice mass loss around the entire GIS from 1900 to the present using aerial imagery from the 1980s. This allows accurate high-resolution mapping of geomorphic features related to the maximum extent of the GIS during the Little Ice Age at the end of the nineteenth century. We estimate the total ice mass loss and its spatial distribution for three periods: 1900-1983 (75.1 ± 29.4 gigatonnes per year), 1983-2003 (73.8 ± 40.5 gigatonnes per year), and 2003-2010 (186.4 ± 18.9 gigatonnes per year). Furthermore, using two surface mass balance models we partition the mass balance into a term for surface mass balance (that is, total precipitation minus total sublimation minus runoff) and a dynamic term. We find that many areas currently undergoing change are identical to those that experienced considerable thinning throughout the twentieth century. We also reveal that the surface mass balance term shows a considerable decrease since 2003, whereas the dynamic term is constant over the past 110 years. Overall, our observation-based findings show that during the twentieth century the GIS contributed at least 25.0 ± 9.4 millimetres of global-mean sea level rise. Our result will help to close the twentieth-century sea level budget, which remains crucial for evaluating the reliability of models used to predict global sea level rise.

Spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet since AD 1900

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjeldsen, Kristian K.; Korsgaard, Niels J.; Bjørk, Anders A.; Khan, Shfaqat A.; Box, Jason E.; Funder, Svend; Larsen, Nicolaj K.; Bamber, Jonathan L.; Colgan, William; van den Broeke, Michiel; Siggaard-Andersen, Marie-Louise; Nuth, Christopher; Schomacker, Anders; Andresen, Camilla S.; Willerslev, Eske; Kjær, Kurt H.

2015-12-01

The response of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) to changes in temperature during the twentieth century remains contentious, largely owing to difficulties in estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of ice mass changes before 1992, when Greenland-wide observations first became available. The only previous estimates of change during the twentieth century are based on empirical modelling and energy balance modelling. Consequently, no observation-based estimates of the contribution from the GIS to the global-mean sea level budget before 1990 are included in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here we calculate spatial ice mass loss around the entire GIS from 1900 to the present using aerial imagery from the 1980s. This allows accurate high-resolution mapping of geomorphic features related to the maximum extent of the GIS during the Little Ice Age at the end of the nineteenth century. We estimate the total ice mass loss and its spatial distribution for three periods: 1900-1983 (75.1 ± 29.4 gigatonnes per year), 1983-2003 (73.8 ± 40.5 gigatonnes per year), and 2003-2010 (186.4 ± 18.9 gigatonnes per year). Furthermore, using two surface mass balance models we partition the mass balance into a term for surface mass balance (that is, total precipitation minus total sublimation minus runoff) and a dynamic term. We find that many areas currently undergoing change are identical to those that experienced considerable thinning throughout the twentieth century. We also reveal that the surface mass balance term shows a considerable decrease since 2003, whereas the dynamic term is constant over the past 110 years. Overall, our observation-based findings show that during the twentieth century the GIS contributed at least 25.0 ± 9.4 millimetres of global-mean sea level rise. Our result will help to close the twentieth-century sea level budget, which remains crucial for evaluating the reliability of models used to predict global sea level rise.

Increased Land Use by Chukchi Sea Polar Bears in Relation to Changing Sea Ice Conditions

PubMed Central

Rode, Karyn D.; Wilson, Ryan R.; Regehr, Eric V.; St. Martin, Michelle; Douglas, David C.; Olson, Jay

2015-01-01

Recent observations suggest that polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are increasingly using land habitats in some parts of their range, where they have minimal access to their preferred prey, likely in response to loss of their sea ice habitat associated with climatic warming. We used location data from female polar bears fit with satellite radio collars to compare land use patterns in the Chukchi Sea between two periods (1986–1995 and 2008–2013) when substantial summer sea-ice loss occurred. In both time periods, polar bears predominantly occupied sea-ice, although land was used during the summer sea-ice retreat and during the winter for maternal denning. However, the proportion of bears on land for > 7 days between August and October increased between the two periods from 20.0% to 38.9%, and the average duration on land increased by 30 days. The majority of bears that used land in the summer and for denning came to Wrangel and Herald Islands (Russia), highlighting the importance of these northernmost land habitats to Chukchi Sea polar bears. Where bears summered and denned, and how long they spent there, was related to the timing and duration of sea ice retreat. Our results are consistent with other studies supporting increased land use as a common response of polar bears to sea-ice loss. Implications of increased land use for Chukchi Sea polar bears are unclear, because a recent study observed no change in body condition or reproductive indices between the two periods considered here. This result suggests that the ecology of this region may provide a degree of resilience to sea ice loss. However, projections of continued sea ice loss suggest that polar bears in the Chukchi Sea and other parts of the Arctic may increasingly use land habitats in the future, which has the potential to increase nutritional stress and human-polar bear interactions. PMID:26580809

Increased Land Use by Chukchi Sea Polar Bears in Relation to Changing Sea Ice Conditions.

PubMed

Rode, Karyn D; Wilson, Ryan R; Regehr, Eric V; St Martin, Michelle; Douglas, David C; Olson, Jay

2015-01-01

Recent observations suggest that polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are increasingly using land habitats in some parts of their range, where they have minimal access to their preferred prey, likely in response to loss of their sea ice habitat associated with climatic warming. We used location data from female polar bears fit with satellite radio collars to compare land use patterns in the Chukchi Sea between two periods (1986-1995 and 2008-2013) when substantial summer sea-ice loss occurred. In both time periods, polar bears predominantly occupied sea-ice, although land was used during the summer sea-ice retreat and during the winter for maternal denning. However, the proportion of bears on land for > 7 days between August and October increased between the two periods from 20.0% to 38.9%, and the average duration on land increased by 30 days. The majority of bears that used land in the summer and for denning came to Wrangel and Herald Islands (Russia), highlighting the importance of these northernmost land habitats to Chukchi Sea polar bears. Where bears summered and denned, and how long they spent there, was related to the timing and duration of sea ice retreat. Our results are consistent with other studies supporting increased land use as a common response of polar bears to sea-ice loss. Implications of increased land use for Chukchi Sea polar bears are unclear, because a recent study observed no change in body condition or reproductive indices between the two periods considered here. This result suggests that the ecology of this region may provide a degree of resilience to sea ice loss. However, projections of continued sea ice loss suggest that polar bears in the Chukchi Sea and other parts of the Arctic may increasingly use land habitats in the future, which has the potential to increase nutritional stress and human-polar bear interactions.

Increased land use by Chukchi Sea polar bears in relation to changing sea ice conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rode, Karyn D.; Wilson, Ryan R.; Regehr, Eric V.; St. Martin, Michelle; Douglas, David C.; Olson, Jay

2015-01-01

Recent observations suggest that polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are increasingly using land habitats in some parts of their range, where they have minimal access to their preferred prey, likely in response to loss of their sea ice habitat associated with climatic warming. We used location data from female polar bears fit with satellite radio collars to compare land use patterns in the Chukchi Sea between two periods (1986–1995 and 2008–2013) when substantial summer sea-ice loss occurred. In both time periods, polar bears predominantly occupied sea-ice, although land was used during the summer sea-ice retreat and during the winter for maternal denning. However, the proportion of bears on land for > 7 days between August and October increased between the two periods from 20.0% to 38.9%, and the average duration on land increased by 30 days. The majority of bears that used land in the summer and for denning came to Wrangel and Herald Islands (Russia), highlighting the importance of these northernmost land habitats to Chukchi Sea polar bears. Where bears summered and denned, and how long they spent there, was related to the timing and duration of sea ice retreat. Our results are consistent with other studies supporting increased land use as a common response of polar bears to sea-ice loss. Implications of increased land use for Chukchi Sea polar bears are unclear, because a recent study observed no change in body condition or reproductive indices between the two periods considered here. This result suggests that the ecology of this region may provide a degree of resilience to sea ice loss. However, projections of continued sea ice loss suggest that polar bears in the Chukchi Sea and other parts of the Arctic may increasingly use land habitats in the future, which has the potential to increase nutritional stress and human-polar bear interactions.

Modelling the contribution of supraglacial ice cliffs to the mass-balance of glaciers in the Langtang catchment, Nepalese Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buri, P.; Steiner, J. F.; Miles, E.; Ragettli, S.; Pellicciotti, F.

2017-12-01

Supraglacial cliffs are typical surface features of debris-covered glaciers worldwide, affecting surface evolution, and mass balance by providing a direct ice-atmosphere interface where melt rates can be very high. As a result, ice cliffs act as windows of energy transfer from the atmosphere to the ice, and enhance melt and mass losses of otherwise insulated ice. However, their contribution to glacier mass balance has never been quantified at the glacier scale, and all inference has been obtained from upscaling results of point-scale models or observations at select individual cliffs. Here we use a 3D, physically-based backwasting model to estimate the volume losses associated with the melting and backwasting of supraglacial ice cliffs for the entire debris-covered glacier area of the Langtang catchment. We estimate mass losses for the 2014 melt season and compare them to recent values of glacier mass balance determined from geodetic and numerical modelling approached. Cliff outlines and topography are derived from high-resolution stereo SPOT6-imagery from April 2014. Meteorological data to force the model are provided by automatic weather stations on- and off-glacier within the valley. The model simulates ice cliff backwasting by considering the cliff-atmosphere energy-balance, reburial by debris and the effects of adjacent ponds. In the melt season of 2014, cliffs' distribution and patterns of mass losses vary considerably from glacier to glacier, and we relate rates of volume loss to both glaciers' and cliffs' characteristics. Only cliffs with a northerly aspect account for substantial losses. Uncertainty in our estimates is due to the quality of the stereo DEM, uncertainties in the cliff delineation and the fact that we use a conservative approach to cliff delineation and discard very small cliffs and those for which uncertainty in topography is high. Despite these uncertainties, our work presents the first estimate of the importance of supraglacial ice-cliffs to total glacier mass-balance, and shows that the volume lost by backwasting of ice cliffs is a non-negligible term in the total glacier mass balance of debris-covered glaciers, providing a partial explanation of the higher-than-expected mass losses of debris-covered glaciers of High Mountain Asia.

Data assimilation problems in glaciology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shapero, Daniel

Rising sea levels due to mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica threaten to inundate coastal areas the world over. For the purposes of urban planning and hazard mitigation, policy makers would like to know how much sea-level rise can be anticipated in the next century. To make these predictions, glaciologists use mathematical models of ice sheet flow, together with remotely-sensed observations of the current state of the ice sheets. The quantities that are observable over large spatial scales are the ice surface elevation and speed, and the elevation of the underlying bedrock. There are other quantities, such as the viscosity within the ice and the friction coefficient for sliding over the bed, that are just as important in dictating how fast the glacier flows, but that are not observable at large scales using current methods. These quantities can be inferred from observations by using data assimilation methods, applied to a model of glacier flow. In this dissertation, I will describe my work on data assimilation problems in glaciology. My main contributions so far have been: computing the bed stress underneath the three biggest Greenland outlet glaciers; developing additional tools for glacier modeling and data assimilation in the form of the open-source library icepack ; and improving the statistical methodology through the user of total variation priors.

Respective roles of direct GHG radiative forcing and induced Arctic sea ice loss on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oudar, Thomas; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Chauvin, Fabrice; Cattiaux, Julien; Terray, Laurent; Cassou, Christophe

2017-12-01

The large-scale and synoptic-scale Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation responses to projected late twenty-first century Arctic sea ice decline induced by increasing Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) concentrations are investigated using the CNRM-CM5 coupled model. An original protocol, based on a flux correction technique, allows isolating the respective roles of GHG direct radiative effect and induced Arctic sea ice loss under RCP8.5 scenario. In winter, the surface atmospheric response clearly exhibits opposing effects between GHGs increase and Arctic sea ice loss, leading to no significant pattern in the total response (particularly in the North Atlantic region). An analysis based on Eady growth rate shows that Arctic sea ice loss drives the weakening in the low-level meridional temperature gradient, causing a general decrease of the baroclinicity in the mid and high latitudes, whereas the direct impact of GHGs increase is more located in the mid-to-high troposphere. Changes in the flow waviness, evaluated from sinuosity and blocking frequency metrics, are found to be small relative to inter-annual variability.

Mass Balance of the West Antarctic Ice-Sheet from ICESat Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Li, Jun; Robins, John; Saba, Jack L.; Yi, Donghui

2011-01-01

Mass balance estimates for 2003-2008 are derived from ICESat laser altimetry and compared with estimates for 1992-2002 derived from ERS radar altimetry. The net mass balance of 3 drainage systems (Pine Island, Thwaites/Smith, and the coast of Marie Bryd) for 2003-2008 is a loss of 100 Gt/yr, which increased from a loss of 70 Gt/yr for the earlier period. The DS including the Bindschadler and MacAyeal ice streams draining into the Ross Ice Shelf has a mass gain of 11 Gt/yr for 2003-2008, compared to an earlier loss of 70 Gt/yr. The DS including the Whillans and Kamb ice streams has a mass gain of 12 Gt/yr, including a significant thickening on the upper part of the Kamb DS, compared to a earlier gain of 6 Gt/yr (includes interpolation for a large portion of the DS). The other two DS discharging into the Ronne Ice Shelf and the northern Ellsworth Coast have a mass gain of 39 Gt/yr, compared to a gain of 4 Gt/yr for the earlier period. Overall, the increased losses of 30 Gt/yr in the Pine Island, Thwaites/Smith, and the coast of Marie Bryd DSs are exceeded by increased gains of 59 Gt/yr in the other 4 DS. Overall, the mass loss from the West Antarctic ice sheet has decreased to 38 Gt/yr from the earlier loss of 67 Gt/yr, reducing the contribution to sea level rise to 0.11 mm/yr from 0.19 mm/yr

Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, Robert E.; DeConto, Robert M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Hay, Carling C.; Horton, Radley M.; Kulp, Scott; Oppenheimer, Michael; Pollard, David; Strauss, Benjamin H.

2017-12-01

Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) simulations incorporating these physical processes to explore their influence on global-mean sea-level (GMSL) and relative sea-level (RSL). We compare the new projections to past results using expert assessment and structured expert elicitation about AIS changes. Under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), median projected 21st century GMSL rise increases from 79 to 146 cm. Without protective measures, revised median RSL projections would by 2100 submerge land currently home to 153 million people, an increase of 44 million. The use of a physical model, rather than simple parameterizations assuming constant acceleration of ice loss, increases forcing sensitivity: overlap between the central 90% of simulations for 2100 for RCP 8.5 (93-243 cm) and RCP 2.6 (26-98 cm) is minimal. By 2300, the gap between median GMSL estimates for RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 reaches >10 m, with median RSL projections for RCP 8.5 jeopardizing land now occupied by 950 million people (versus 167 million for RCP 2.6). The minimal correlation between the contribution of AIS to GMSL by 2050 and that in 2100 and beyond implies current sea-level observations cannot exclude future extreme outcomes. The sensitivity of post-2050 projections to deeply uncertain physics highlights the need for robust decision and adaptive management frameworks.

Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kopp, Robert E.; DeConto, Robert M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Hay, Carling C.; Horton, Radley M.; Kulp, Scott; Oppenheimer, Michael; Pollard, David; Strauss, Benjamin

2017-01-01

Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) simulations incorporating these physical processes to explore their influence on global-mean sea-level (GMSL) and relative sea-level (RSL). We compare the new projections to past results using expert assessment and structured expert elicitation about AIS changes. Under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), median projected 21st century GMSL rise increases from 79 to 146 cm. Without protective measures, revised median RSL projections would by 2100 submerge land currently home to 153 million people, an increase of 44 million. The use of a physical model, rather than simple parameterizations assuming constant acceleration of ice loss, increases forcing sensitivity: overlap between the central 90% of simulations for 2100 for RCP 8.5 (93-243 cm) and RCP 2.6 (26-98 cm) is minimal. By 2300, the gap between median GMSL estimates for RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 reaches >10 m, with median RSL projections for RCP 8.5 jeopardizing land now occupied by 950 million people (versus 167 million for RCP 2.6). The minimal correlation between the contribution of AIS to GMSL by 2050 and that in 2100 and beyond implies current sea-level observations cannot exclude future extreme outcomes. The sensitivity of post-2050 projections to deeply uncertain physics highlights the need for robust decision and adaptive management frameworks.

Relating sub-surface ice features to physiological stress in a climate sensitive mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps).

PubMed

Wilkening, Jennifer L; Ray, Chris; Varner, Johanna

2015-01-01

The American pika (Ochotona princeps) is considered a sentinel species for detecting ecological effects of climate change. Pikas are declining within a large portion of their range, and ongoing research suggests loss of sub-surface ice as a mechanism. However, no studies have demonstrated physiological responses of pikas to sub-surface ice features. Here we present the first analysis of physiological stress in pikas living in and adjacent to habitats underlain by ice. Fresh fecal samples were collected non-invasively from two adjacent sites in the Rocky Mountains (one with sub-surface ice and one without) and analyzed for glucocorticoid metabolites (GCM). We also measured sub-surface microclimates in each habitat. Results indicate lower GCM concentration in sites with sub-surface ice, suggesting that pikas are less stressed in favorable microclimates resulting from sub-surface ice features. GCM response was well predicted by habitat characteristics associated with sub-surface ice features, such as lower mean summer temperatures. These results suggest that pikas inhabiting areas without sub-surface ice features are experiencing higher levels of physiological stress and may be more susceptible to changing climates. Although post-deposition environmental effects can confound analyses based on fecal GCM, we found no evidence for such effects in this study. Sub-surface ice features are key to water cycling and storage and will likely represent an increasingly important component of water resources in a warming climate. Fecal samples collected from additional watersheds as part of current pika monitoring programs could be used to further characterize relationships between pika stress and sub-surface ice features.

Early 21st-Century Mass loss of the North-Atlantic Glaciers and Ice Caps (Arne Richter Award for Outstanding Young Scientists Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wouters, Bert; Ligtenberg, Stefan; Moholdt, Geir; Gardner, Alex S.; Noel, Brice; Kuipers Munneke, Peter; van den Broeke, Michiel; Bamber, Jonathan L.

2016-04-01

Historically, ice loss from mountain glaciers and ice caps has been one of the largest contributors to sea level rise over the last century. Of particular interest are the glaciers and ice caps in the North-Atlantic region of the Arctic. Despite the cold climate in this area, considerable melting and runoff occurs in summer. A small increase in temperature will have an immediate effect on these processes, so that a large change in the Arctic ice volume can be expected in response to the anticipated climate change in the coming century. Unfortunately, direct observations of glaciers are sparse and are biased toward glaciers systems in accessible, mostly maritime, climate conditions. Remote sensing is therefore essential to monitor the state of the the North-Atlantic glaciers and ice caps. In this presentation, we will discuss the progress that has been made in estimating the ice mass balance of these regions, with a particular focus on measurements made by ESA's Cryosat-2 radar altimeter mission (2010-present). Compared to earlier altimeter mission, Cryosat-2 provides unprecedented coverage of the cryosphere, with a resolution down to 1 km or better and sampling at monthly intervals. Combining the Cryosat-2 measurements with the laser altimetry data from ICESat (2003-2009) gives us a 12 yr time series of glacial mass loss in the North Atlantic. We find excellent agreement between the altimetry measurements and independent observations by the GRACE mission, which directly 'weighs' the ice caps, albeit at a much lower resolution. Mass loss in the region has increased from 120 Gigatonnes per year in 2003-2009 to roughly 140 Gt/yr in 2010-2014, with an important contribution from Greenland's peripheral glaciers and ice caps. Importantly, the mass loss is not stationary, but shows large regional interannual variability, with mass loss shifting between eastern and western regions from year to year. Comparison with regional climate models shows that these shifts can be explained by changes in surface mass balance processes, highlighting the sensitivity of the glaciers and ice caps to changes in the atmospheric circulation and underscoring the need for long-term observations of the region.

Pacific Walrus and climate change: observations and predictions

PubMed Central

MacCracken, James G

2012-01-01

The extent and duration of sea-ice habitats used by Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) are diminishing resulting in altered walrus behavior, mortality, and distribution. I document changes that have occurred over the past several decades and make predictions to the end of the 21st century. Climate models project that sea ice will monotonically decline resulting in more ice-free summers of longer duration. Several stressors that may impact walruses are directly influenced by sea ice. How these stressors materialize were modeled as most likely-case, worst-case, and best-case scenarios for the mid- and late-21st century, resulting in four comprehensive working hypotheses that can help identify and prioritize management and research projects, identify comprehensive mitigation actions, and guide monitoring programs to track future developments and adjust programs as needed. In the short term, the most plausible hypotheses predict a continuing northward shift in walrus distribution, increasing use of coastal haulouts in summer and fall, and a population reduction set by the carrying capacity of the near shore environment and subsistence hunting. Alternatively, under worst-case conditions, the population will decline to a level where the probability of extinction is high. In the long term, walrus may seasonally abandon the Bering and Chukchi Seas for sea-ice refugia to the northwest and northeast, ocean warming and pH decline alter walrus food resources, and subsistence hunting exacerbates a large population decline. However, conditions that reverse current trends in sea ice loss cannot be ruled out. Which hypothesis comes to fruition depends on how the stressors develop and the success of mitigation measures. Best-case scenarios indicate that successful mitigation of unsustainable harvests and terrestrial haulout-related mortalities can be effective. Management and research should focus on monitoring, elucidating effects, and mitigation, while ultimately, reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are needed to reduce sea-ice habitat losses. PMID:22957206

Impacts of Organic Macromolecules, Chlorophyll and Soot on Arctic Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogunro, O. O.; Wingenter, O. W.; Elliott, S.; Flanner, M.; Dubey, M. K.

2014-12-01

Recent intensification of Arctic amplification can be strongly connected to positive feedback relating black carbon deposition to sea ice surface albedo. In addition to soot deposition on the ice and snow pack, ice algal chlorophyll is likely to compete as an absorber and redistributor of energy. Hence, solar radiation absorption by chlorophyll and some components of organic macromolecules in/under the ice column is currently being examined to determine the level of influence on predicted rate of ice loss. High amounts of organic macromolecules and chlorophyll are produced in global sea ice by the bottom microbial community and also in vertically distributed layers where substantial biological activities take place. Brine channeling in columnar ice can allow for upward flow of nutrients which leads to greater primary production in the presence of moderate light. Modeling of the sea-ice processes in tandem with experiments and field observations promises rapid progress in enhancing Arctic ice predictions. We are designing and conducting global climate model experiments to determine the impact of organic macromolecules and chlorophyll on Arctic sea ice. Influences on brine network permeability and radiation/albedo will be considered in this exercise. Absorption by anthropogenic materials such as soot and black carbon will be compared with that of natural pigments. We will indicate areas of soot and biological absorption dominance in the sense of single scattering, then couple into a full radiation transfer scheme to attribute the various contributions to polar climate change amplification. The work prepares us to study more traditional issues such as chlorophyll warming of the pack periphery and chemical effects of the flow of organics from ice internal communities. The experiments started in the Arctic will broaden to include Antarctic sea ice and shelves. Results from the Arctic simulations will be presented.

The Subglacial Access and Fast Ice Research Experiment - SAFIRE - on Store Glacier, West Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christoffersen, P.; Hubbard, B. P.; Doyle, S. H.; Young, T. J.; Hofstede, C. M.; Bougamont, M. H.; Todd, J.; Toberg, N.; Nicholls, K. W.; Box, J.; Walter, J. I.; Hubbard, A.

2015-12-01

Marine-terminating outlet glaciers drain 90 percent of the Greenland Ice Sheet and are responsible for about half of the ice sheet's net annual mass loss, which currently raises global sea level by 1 mm per year. The basal controls on these fast-flowing glaciers are, however, poorly understood, with the implication that numerical ice sheet models needed to predict future dynamic ice loss from Greenland relies on uncertain and often untested basal parameterizations. The Subglacial Access and Fast Ice Research Experiment - SAFIRE - is addressing this paucity of observational constraints by drilling to the bed of Store Glacier, a fast-flowing outlet glacier terminating in Uummannaq Fjord, West Greenland. In 2014, we gained access to the bed in four boreholes drilled to depths of 603-616 m near the center of the glacier, 30 km inland from the calving terminus where ice flows at a rate of 700 m/year. A seismic survey showed the glacier bed to consist of water-saturated, soft sediment. The water level in all four boreholes nevertheless dropped rapidly to 80 m below the ice surface when the drill connected with a basal water system, indicating effective drainage over a sedimentary bed. We were able to install wired sensor strings at the bed (water pressure, temperature, electrical conductivity and turbidity) and within the glacier (temperature and tilt) in three boreholes. The sensors operated for up to 80+ days before cables stretched and ultimately snapped due to high internal strain. The data collected during this sensor deployment show ice as cold as -21 degrees Celcius; yet, temperature of water in the basal water system was persistently above the local freezing point. With diurnal variations detected in several sensor records, we hypothesise that surface water lubricates the ice flow while also warming basal ice. The fast basal motion of Store Glacier not only occurs by basal sliding, but from high rates of concentrated strain in the bottom third of the glacier. Deployment of an autonomous phase-sensitive radar near the drill site complements the data collected by sensors installed in boreholes, as internal reflectors measured at hourly timescale show very high, and highly variable internal strain within the glacier. In 2016, we plan to install new sensors while also sampling cores from the bed.

Greenland ice sheet surface temperature, melt and mass loss: 2000-06

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hall, D.K.; Williams, R.S.; Luthcke, S.B.; DiGirolamo, N.E.

2008-01-01

A daily time series of 'clear-sky' surface temperature has been compiled of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) using 1 km resolution moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) land-surface temperature (LST) maps from 2000 to 2006. We also used mass-concentration data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to study mass change in relationship to surface melt from 2003 to 2006. The mean LST of the GIS increased during the study period by ???0.27??Ca-1. The increase was especially notable in the northern half of the ice sheet during the winter months. Melt-season length and timing were also studied in each of the six major drainage basins. Rapid (<15 days) and sustained mass loss below 2000 m elevation was triggered in 2004 and 2005 as recorded by GRACE when surface melt begins. Initiation of large-scale surface melt was followed rapidly by mass loss. This indicates that surface meltwater is flowing rapidly to the base of the ice sheet, causing acceleration of outlet glaciers, thus highlighting the metastability of parts of the GIS and the vulnerability of the ice sheet to air-temperature increases. If air temperatures continue to rise over Greenland, increased surface melt will play a large role in ice-sheet mass loss.

Modeling the effects of martian surface frost on ice table depth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, K. E.; McKay, Christopher P.; Heldmann, J. L.

2015-11-01

Ground ice has been observed in small fresh craters in the vicinity of the Viking 2 lander site (48°N, 134°E). To explain these observations, current models for ground ice invoke levels of atmospheric water of 20 precipitable micrometers - higher than observations. However, surface frost has been observed at the Viking 2 site and surface water frost and snow have been shown to have a stabilizing effect on Antarctic subsurface ice. A snow or frost cover provides a source of humidity that should reduce the water vapor gradient and hence retard the sublimation loss from subsurface ice. We have modeled this effect for the Viking 2 landing site with combined ground ice and surface frost models. Our model is driven by atmospheric output fields from the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM). Our modeling results show that the inclusion of a thin seasonal frost layer, present for a duration similar to that observed by the Viking Lander 2, produces ice table depths that are significantly shallower than a model that omits surface frost. When a maximum frost albedo of 0.35 was permitted, seasonal frost is present in our model from Ls = 182° to Ls = 16°, resulting in an ice table depth of 64 cm - which is 24 cm shallower than the frost-free scenario. The computed ice table depth is only slightly sensitive to the assumed maximum frost albedo or thickness in the model.

Recent high-resolution Antarctic ice velocity maps reveal increased mass loss in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica.

PubMed

Shen, Qiang; Wang, Hansheng; Shum, C K; Jiang, Liming; Hsu, Hou Tse; Dong, Jinglong

2018-03-14

We constructed Antarctic ice velocity maps from Landsat 8 images for the years 2014 and 2015 at a high spatial resolution (100 m). These maps were assembled from 10,690 scenes of displacement vectors inferred from more than 10,000 optical images acquired from December 2013 through March 2016. We estimated the mass discharge of the Antarctic ice sheet in 2008, 2014, and 2015 using the Landsat ice velocity maps, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR)-derived ice velocity maps (~2008) available from prior studies, and ice thickness data. An increased mass discharge (53 ± 14 Gt yr -1 ) was found in the East Indian Ocean sector since 2008 due to unexpected widespread glacial acceleration in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, while the other five oceanic sectors did not exhibit significant changes. However, present-day increased mass loss was found by previous studies predominantly in west Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. The newly discovered increased mass loss in Wilkes Land suggests that the ocean heat flux may already be influencing ice dynamics in the marine-based sector of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS). The marine-based sector could be adversely impacted by ongoing warming in the Southern Ocean, and this process may be conducive to destabilization.

On the extraordinary snow on the sea ice off East Antarctica in late winter, 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toyota, Takenobu; Massom, Robert; Lecomte, Olivier; Nomura, Daiki; Heil, Petra; Tamura, Takeshi; Fraser, Alexander D.

2016-09-01

In late winter-early spring 2012, the second Sea Ice Physics and Ecosystems Experiment (SIPEX II) was conducted off Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, onboard R/V Aurora Australis. The sea-ice conditions were characterized by significantly thick first-year ice and snow, trapping the ship for about 10 days in the near coastal region. The deep snow cover was particularly remarkable, in that its average value of 0.45 m was almost three times that observed between 1992 and 2007 in the region. To reveal factors responsible, we used in situ observations and ERA-Interim reanalysis (1990-2012) to examine the relative contribution of the different components of the local-regional snow mass balance equation i.e., snow accumulation on sea ice, precipitation minus evaporation (P-E), and loss by (i) snow-ice formation and (ii) entering into leads due to drifting snow. Results show no evidence for significantly high P-E in the winter of 2012. Ice core analysis has shown that although the snow-ice layer was relatively thin, indicating less transformation from snow to snow-ice in 2012 as compared to measurements from 2007, the difference was not enough to explain the extraordinarily deep snow. Based on these results, we deduce that lower loss of snow into leads was probably responsible for the extraordinary snow in 2012. Statistical analysis and satellite images suggest that the reduction in loss of snow into leads is attributed to rough ice surface associated with active deformation processes and larger floe size due to sea-ice expansion. This highlights the importance of snow-sea ice interaction in determining the mean snow depth on Antarctic sea ice.

Associations between accelerated glacier mass wastage and increased summer temperature in coastal regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dyurgerov, M.; McCabe, G.J.

2006-01-01

Low-elevation glaciers in coastal regions of Alaska, the Canadian Arctic, individual ice caps around the Greenland ice sheet, and the Patagonia Ice Fields have an aggregate glacier area of about 332 ?? 103 km 2 and account for approximately 42% of all the glacier area outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. They have shown volume loss, especially since the end of the 1980s, increasing from about 45% in the 1960s to nearly 67% in 2003 of the total wastage from all glaciers on Earth outside those two largest ice sheets. Thus, a disproportionally large contribution of coastal glacier ablation to sea level rise is evident. We examine cumulative standardized departures (1961-2000 reference period) of glacier mass balances and air temperature data in these four coastal regions. Analyses indicate a strong association between increases in glacier volume losses and summer air temperature at regional and global scales. Increases in glacier volume losses in the coastal regions also coincide with an accelerated rate of ice discharge from outlet glaciers draining the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets. These processes imply further increases in sea level rise. ?? 2006 Regents of the University of Colorado.

Scaling of Lift Degradation Due to Anti-Icing Fluids Based Upon the Aerodynamic Acceptance Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Broeren, Andy P.; Riley, James T.

2012-01-01

In recent years, the FAA has worked with Transport Canada, National Research Council Canada (NRC) and APS Aviation, Inc. to develop allowance times for aircraft operations in ice-pellet precipitation. These allowance times are critical to ensure safety and efficient operation of commercial and cargo flights. Wind-tunnel testing with uncontaminated anti-icing fluids and fluids contaminated with simulated ice pellets had been carried out at the NRC Propulsion and Icing Wind Tunnel (PIWT) to better understand the flowoff characteristics and resulting aerodynamic effects. The percent lift loss on the thin, high-performance wing model tested in the PIWT was determined at 8 angle of attack and used as one of the evaluation criteria in determining the allowance times. Because it was unclear as to how performance degradations measured on this model were relevant to an actual airplane configuration, some means of interpreting the wing model lift loss was deemed necessary. This paper describes how the lift loss was related to the loss in maximum lift of a Boeing 737-200ADV airplane through the Aerodynamic Acceptance Test (AAT) performed for fluids qualification. A loss in maximum lift coefficient of 5.24 percent on the B737-200ADV airplane (which was adopted as the threshold in the AAT) corresponds to a lift loss of 7.3 percent on the PIWT model at 8 angle of attack. There is significant scatter in the data used to develop the correlation related to varying effects of the anti-icing fluids that were tested and other factors. A statistical analysis indicated the upper limit of lift loss on the PIWT model was 9.2 percent. Therefore, for cases resulting in PIWT model lift loss from 7.3 to 9.2 percent, extra scrutiny of the visual observations is required in evaluating fluid performance with contamination.

Scaling of Lift Degradation Due to Anti-Icing Fluids Based Upon the Aerodynamic Acceptance Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Broeren, Andy; Riley, Jim

2012-01-01

In recent years, the FAA has worked with Transport Canada, National Research Council Canada (NRC) and APS Aviation, Inc. to develop allowance times for aircraft operations in ice-pellet precipitation. These allowance times are critical to ensure safety and efficient operation of commercial and cargo flights. Wind-tunnel testing with uncontaminated anti-icing fluids and fluids contaminated with simulated ice pellets had been carried out at the NRC Propulsion and Icing Wind Tunnel (PIWT) to better understand the flow-off characteristics and resulting aerodynamic effects. The percent lift loss on the thin, high-performance wing model tested in the PIWT was determined at 8 deg. angle of attack and used as one of the evaluation criteria in determining the allowance times. Because it was unclear as to how performance degradations measured on this model were relevant to an actual airplane configuration, some means of interpreting the wing model lift loss was deemed necessary. This paper describes how the lift loss was related to the loss in maximum lift of a Boeing 737-200ADV airplane through the Aerodynamic Acceptance Test (AAT) performed for fluids qualification. A loss in maximum lift coefficient of 5.24% on the B737-200ADV airplane (which was adopted as the threshold in the AAT) corresponds to a lift loss of 7.3% on the PIWT model at 8 deg. angle of attack. There is significant scatter in the data used to develop the correlation related to varying effects of the anti-icing fluids that were tested and other factors. A statistical analysis indicated the upper limit of lift loss on the PIWT model was 9.2%. Therefore, for cases resulting in PIWT model lift loss from 7.3% to 9.2%, extra scrutiny of the visual observations is required in evaluating fluid performance with contamination.

Postglacial Rebound and Current Ice Loss Estimates from Space Geodesy: The New ICE-6G (VM5a) Global Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peltier, W. R.; Argus, D.; Drummond, R.; Moore, A. W.

2012-12-01

We compare, on a global basis, estimates of site velocity against predictions of the newly constructed postglacial rebound model ICE-6G (VM5a). This model is fit to observations of North American postglacial rebound thereby demonstrating that the ice sheet at last glacial maximum must have been, relative to ICE-5G,thinner in southern Manitoba, thinner near Yellowknife (northwest Territories), thicker in eastern and southern Quebec, and thicker along the British Columbia-Alberta border. The GPS based estimates of site velocity that we employ are more accurate than were previously available because they are based on GPS estimates of position as a function of time determined by incorporating satellite phase center variations [Desai et al. 2011]. These GPS estimates are constraining postglacial rebound in North America and Europe more tightly than ever before. In particular, given the high density of GPS sites in North America, and the fact that the velocity of the mass center (CM) of Earth is also more tightly constrained, the new model much more strongly constrains both the lateral extent of the proglacial forebulge and the rate at which this peripheral bulge (that was emplaced peripheral to the late Pleistocence Laurentia ice sheet) is presently collapsing. This fact proves to be important to the more accurate inference of the current rate of ice loss from both Greenland and Alaska based upon the time dependent gravity observations being provided by the GRACE satellite system. In West Antarctica we have also been able to significantly revise the previously prevalent ICE-5G deglaciation history so as to enable its predictions to be optimally consistent with GPS site velocities determined by connecting campaign WAGN measurements to those provided by observations from the permanent ANET sites. Ellsworth Land (south of the Antarctic peninsula), is observed to be rising at 6 ±3 mm/yr according to our latest analyses; the Ellsworth mountains themselves are observed to be rising at 5 ±4 mm/yr; Palmer Land is observed to be rising at 3 ±3 mm/yr. The predictions of the ICE-5G (VM2) model and those of the postglacial rebound component of the model of Simons, Ivins, and James [2010] had predicted uplift to be significantly faster than observed in this region, as previously documented in Argus et al [2011]. From a global perspective the new ICE-6G (VM5a) model is also a further significant improvement on the previous ICE-5G (VM2) model in that the degree two and order one components of its predicted time dependence of geoid height are tightly constrained by the recent inferences of Roy and Peltier [2011] of the post-GRACE-launch values of the speed and direction of true polar wander and the non-tidal acceleration of the lod. .

Sea ice, rain-on-snow and tundra reindeer nomadism in Arctic Russia

PubMed Central

Kumpula, Timo; Meschtyb, Nina; Laptander, Roza; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Zetterberg, Pentti; Verdonen, Mariana; Kim, Kwang-Yul; Boisvert, Linette N.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Bartsch, Annett

2016-01-01

Sea ice loss is accelerating in the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS). Assessing potential linkages between sea ice retreat/thinning and the region's ancient and unique social–ecological systems is a pressing task. Tundra nomadism remains a vitally important livelihood for indigenous Nenets and their large reindeer herds. Warming summer air temperatures have been linked to more frequent and sustained summer high-pressure systems over West Siberia, Russia, but not to sea ice retreat. At the same time, autumn/winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events have become more frequent and intense. Here, we review evidence for autumn atmospheric warming and precipitation increases over Arctic coastal lands in proximity to BKS ice loss. Two major ROS events during November 2006 and 2013 led to massive winter reindeer mortality episodes on the Yamal Peninsula. Fieldwork with migratory herders has revealed that the ecological and socio-economic impacts from the catastrophic 2013 event will unfold for years to come. The suggested link between sea ice loss, more frequent and intense ROS events and high reindeer mortality has serious implications for the future of tundra Nenets nomadism. PMID:27852939

Arctic spring ozone reduction associated with projected sea ice loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deser, C.; Sun, L.; Tomas, R. A.; Polvani, L. M.

2013-12-01

The impact of Arctic sea ice loss on the stratosphere is investigated using the Whole-Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), by prescribing the sea ice in the late 20th century and late 21st century, respectively. The localized Sea Surface Temperature (SST) change associated with sea ice melt is also included in the future run. Overall, the model simulates a negative annular-mode response in the winter and spring. In the stratosphere, polar vortex strengthens from February to April, peaking in March. Consistent with it, there is an anomalous cooling in the high-latitude stratosphere, and polar cap ozone reduction is up to 20 DU. Since the difference between these two runs lies only in the sea ice and localized SST in the Arctic, the stratospheric circulation and ozone changes can be attributed to the surface forcing. Eliassen-Palm analysis reveals that the upward propagation of planetary waves is suppressed in the spring as a consequence of sea ice loss. The reduction in propagation causes less wave dissipation and thus less zonal wind deceleration in the extratropical stratosphere.

Sea ice, rain-on-snow and tundra reindeer nomadism in Arctic Russia.

PubMed

Forbes, Bruce C; Kumpula, Timo; Meschtyb, Nina; Laptander, Roza; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Zetterberg, Pentti; Verdonen, Mariana; Skarin, Anna; Kim, Kwang-Yul; Boisvert, Linette N; Stroeve, Julienne C; Bartsch, Annett

2016-11-01

Sea ice loss is accelerating in the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS). Assessing potential linkages between sea ice retreat/thinning and the region's ancient and unique social-ecological systems is a pressing task. Tundra nomadism remains a vitally important livelihood for indigenous Nenets and their large reindeer herds. Warming summer air temperatures have been linked to more frequent and sustained summer high-pressure systems over West Siberia, Russia, but not to sea ice retreat. At the same time, autumn/winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events have become more frequent and intense. Here, we review evidence for autumn atmospheric warming and precipitation increases over Arctic coastal lands in proximity to BKS ice loss. Two major ROS events during November 2006 and 2013 led to massive winter reindeer mortality episodes on the Yamal Peninsula. Fieldwork with migratory herders has revealed that the ecological and socio-economic impacts from the catastrophic 2013 event will unfold for years to come. The suggested link between sea ice loss, more frequent and intense ROS events and high reindeer mortality has serious implications for the future of tundra Nenets nomadism. © 2016 The Authors.

Observationally constrained projections of Antarctic ice sheet instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, Tamsin; Ritz, Catherine; Durand, Gael; Payne, Anthony; Peyaud, Vincent; Hindmarsh, Richard

2015-04-01

Large parts of the Antarctic ice sheet lie on bedrock below sea level and may be vulnerable to a positive feedback known as Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI), a self-sustaining retreat of the grounding line triggered by oceanic or atmospheric changes. There is growing evidence MISI may be underway throughout the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) of West Antarctica, induced by circulation of warm Circumpolar Deep Water. If this retreat is sustained the region could contribute up to 1-2 m to global mean sea level, and if triggered in other areas the potential contribution to sea level on centennial to millennial timescales could be two to three times greater. However, physically plausible projections of Antarctic MISI are challenging: numerical ice sheet models are too low in spatial resolution to resolve grounding line processes or else too computationally expensive to assess modelling uncertainties, and no dynamical models exist of the ocean-atmosphere-ice sheet system. Furthermore, previous numerical ice sheet model projections for Antarctica have not been calibrated with observations, which can reduce uncertainties. Here we estimate the probability of dynamic mass loss in the event of MISI under a medium climate scenario, assessing 16 modelling uncertainties and calibrating the projections with observed mass losses in the ASE from 1992-2011. We project losses of up to 30 cm sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100 and 72 cm SLE by 2200 (95% credibility interval: CI). Our results are substantially lower than previous estimates. The ASE sustains substantial losses, 83% of the continental total by 2100 and 67% by 2200 (95% CI), but in other regions losses are limited by ice dynamical theory, observations, or a lack of projected triggers.

The last glaciation of Bear Peninsula, central Amundsen Sea Embayment of Antarctica: Constraints on timing and duration revealed by in situ cosmogenic 14C and 10Be dating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Joanne S.; Smith, James A.; Schaefer, Joerg M.; Young, Nicolás E.; Goehring, Brent M.; Hillenbrand, Claus-Dieter; Lamp, Jennifer L.; Finkel, Robert C.; Gohl, Karsten

2017-12-01

Ice streams in the Pine Island-Thwaites region of West Antarctica currently dominate contributions to sea level rise from the Antarctic ice sheet. Predictions of future ice-mass loss from this area rely on physical models that are validated with geological constraints on past extent, thickness and timing of ice cover. However, terrestrial records of ice sheet history from the region remain sparse, resulting in significant model uncertainties. We report glacial-geological evidence for the duration and timing of the last glaciation of Hunt Bluff, in the central Amundsen Sea Embayment. A multi-nuclide approach was used, measuring cosmogenic 10Be and in situ14C in bedrock surfaces and a perched erratic cobble. Bedrock 10Be ages (118-144 ka) reflect multiple periods of exposure and ice-cover, not continuous exposure since the last interglacial as had previously been hypothesized. In situ14C dating suggests that the last glaciation of Hunt Bluff did not start until 21.1 ± 5.8 ka - probably during the Last Glacial Maximum - and finished by 9.6 ± 0.9 ka, at the same time as ice sheet retreat from the continental shelf was complete. Thickening of ice at Hunt Bluff most likely post-dated the maximum extent of grounded ice on the outer continental shelf. Flow re-organisation provides a possible explanation for this, with the date for onset of ice-cover at Hunt Bluff providing a minimum age for the timing of convergence of the Dotson and Getz tributaries to form a single palaeo-ice stream. This is the first time that timing of onset of ice cover has been constrained in the Amundsen Sea Embayment.

Improving Arctic Sea Ice Observations and Data Access to Support Advances in Sea Ice Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farrell, S. L.

2017-12-01

The economic and strategic importance of the Arctic region is becoming apparent. One of the most striking and widely publicized changes underway is the declining sea ice cover. Since sea ice is a key component of the climate system, its ongoing loss has serious, and wide-ranging, socio-economic implications. Increasing year-to-year variability in the geographic location, concentration, and thickness of the Arctic ice cover will pose both challenges and opportunities. The sea ice research community must be engaged in sustained Arctic Observing Network (AON) initiatives so as to deliver fit-for-purpose remote sensing data products to a variety of stakeholders including Arctic communities, the weather forecasting and climate modeling communities, industry, local, regional and national governments, and policy makers. An example of engagement is the work currently underway to improve research collaborations between scientists engaged in obtaining and assessing sea ice observational data and those conducting numerical modeling studies and forecasting ice conditions. As part of the US AON, in collaboration with the Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee (IARPC), we are developing a strategic framework within which observers and modelers can work towards the common goal of improved sea ice forecasting. Here, we focus on sea ice thickness, a key varaible of the Arctic ice cover. We describe multi-sensor, and blended, sea ice thickness data products under development that can be leveraged to improve model initialization and validation, as well as support data assimilation exercises. We will also present the new PolarWatch initiative (polarwatch.noaa.gov) and discuss efforts to advance access to remote sensing satellite observations and improve communication with Arctic stakeholders, so as to deliver data products that best address societal needs.

Expanded secondary craters in the Arcadia Planitia region, Mars: evidence for tens of Myr-old shallow subsurface ice

USGS Publications Warehouse

Viola, Donna; McEwen, Alfred S.; Dundas, Colin M.; Byrne, Shane

2015-01-01

A range of observations indicates widespread subsurface ice throughout the mid and high latitudes of Mars in the form of both pore-filling and excess ice. It is generally thought that this ice was recently emplaced and is not older than a hundred thousand to a few millions of years old based on ice stability and orbital-induced climate change. We analyze the distribution of subsurface ice in Arcadia Planitia, located in the northern mid latitudes, by mapping thermokarstically expanded secondary craters, providing additional evidence for extensive excess ice down to fairly low latitudes (less than 40°N). We further infer the minimum age of this subsurface ice based on the ages of the four primary craters that are thought to be the source of a large portion of these secondaries, which yields estimates on the order of tens of millions of years old – much more ancient than anticipated. This estimated ancient age suggests that ice can be preserved in the shallow subsurface for long periods of time, at least in some parts of Arcadia Planitia where expanded secondary craters are especially abundant. We estimate the amount of ice lost to sublimation during crater expansion based on measurements of expanded secondary craters in HiRISE Digital Terrain Models. The loss is equivalent to a volume of ice between ∼140 and 360 km3, which would correspond to a global layer of 1–2.5 mm thick. We further argue that much more ice (at least 6000 km3) is likely preserved beneath the un-cratered regions of Arcadia Planitia since significant loss of this excess ice would have caused extensive terrain dissection and the removal of the expanded secondary craters. Both the loss of ice due to secondary crater expansion and the presence of this ice today have implications for the martian climate.

Increased West Antarctic and unchanged East Antarctic ice discharge over the last 7 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardner, Alex S.; Moholdt, Geir; Scambos, Ted; Fahnstock, Mark; Ligtenberg, Stefan; van den Broeke, Michiel; Nilsson, Johan

2018-02-01

Ice discharge from large ice sheets plays a direct role in determining rates of sea-level rise. We map present-day Antarctic-wide surface velocities using Landsat 7 and 8 imagery spanning 2013-2015 and compare to earlier estimates derived from synthetic aperture radar, revealing heterogeneous changes in ice flow since ˜ 2008. The new mapping provides complete coastal and inland coverage of ice velocity north of 82.4° S with a mean error of < 10 m yr-1, resulting from multiple overlapping image pairs acquired during the daylight period. Using an optimized flux gate, ice discharge from Antarctica is 1929 ± 40 Gigatons per year (Gt yr-1) in 2015, an increase of 36 ± 15 Gt yr-1 from the time of the radar mapping. Flow accelerations across the grounding lines of West Antarctica's Amundsen Sea Embayment, Getz Ice Shelf and Marguerite Bay on the western Antarctic Peninsula, account for 88 % of this increase. In contrast, glaciers draining the East Antarctic Ice Sheet have been remarkably constant over the period of observation. Including modeled rates of snow accumulation and basal melt, the Antarctic ice sheet lost ice at an average rate of 183 ± 94 Gt yr-1 between 2008 and 2015. The modest increase in ice discharge over the past 7 years is contrasted by high rates of ice sheet mass loss and distinct spatial patters of elevation lowering. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is experiencing high rates of mass loss and displays distinct patterns of elevation lowering that point to a dynamic imbalance. We find modest increase in ice discharge over the past 7 years, which suggests that the recent pattern of mass loss in Antarctica is part of a longer-term phase of enhanced glacier flow initiated in the decades leading up to the first continent-wide radar mapping of ice flow.

Penguin heat-retention structures evolved in a greenhouse Earth.

PubMed

Thomas, Daniel B; Ksepka, Daniel T; Fordyce, R Ewan

2011-06-23

Penguins (Sphenisciformes) inhabit some of the most extreme environments on Earth. The 60+ Myr fossil record of penguins spans an interval that witnessed dramatic shifts in Cenozoic ocean temperatures and currents, indicating a long interplay between penguin evolution and environmental change. Perhaps the most celebrated example is the successful Late Cenozoic invasion of glacial environments by crown clade penguins. A major adaptation that allows penguins to forage in cold water is the humeral arterial plexus, a vascular counter-current heat exchanger (CCHE) that limits heat loss through the flipper. Fossil evidence reveals that the humeral plexus arose at least 49 Ma during a 'Greenhouse Earth' interval. The evolution of the CCHE is therefore unrelated to global cooling or development of polar ice sheets, but probably represents an adaptation to foraging in subsurface waters at temperate latitudes. As global climate cooled, the CCHE was key to invasion of thermally more demanding environments associated with Antarctic ice sheets.

Past and future ice age initiation: the role of an intrinsic deep-ocean millennial oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, R. G.

2014-05-01

This paper offers three interdependent contributions to studies of climate variation: (1) the recognition and analysis of an intrinsic millennial oceanic oscillation that affects both Northern and Southern high latitude climates, (2) The recognition of an oceanographic switch to ice-free seas west of Greenland that explains the initiation of the Last Ice Age, and (3) an analysis of the effect of increasing salinity in the seas east of Greenland that suggests the possibility of the initiation of an ice age threshold climate in the near future. In the first contribution the millennial oscillation in the flow of the North Atlantic Drift reported by Bond et al. (1997) is proposed to be part of a 1500 yr intrinsic deep ocean oscillation. This oscillation involves the exchange of North Atlantic intermediate-level deep water (NADW) formed in the seas east of Greenland with Antarctic Bottom Water formed in a shallow-water zone at the edge of the Antarctic continent. The concept of NADW formation is already well known, with details of the sinking water flowing out of the Greenland Sea observed by Smethie et al. (2000) using chlorofluorocarbon tracers. The concept of Antarctic Bottom Water formation is also already well established. However, its modulation by the changing fraction of NADW in the Southern Ocean, which I infer from the analysis of Weyl (1968), has not been previously discussed. The modulated lower-salinity Antarctic Bottom Water that reaches the northern North Atlantic then provides negative feedback for the cyclic variation of NADW formation as proposed here. This causes the 1500 yr bipolar oscillation. The feedback suggests the possible sinusoidal character of the proposed oscillation model. The model is consistent with the cooling of the Little Ice Age (Lamb, 1972, 1995), and it also correctly predicts NASA's observation of today's record maximum area of winter sea ice on the Southern Ocean and the present observed record low rate of Antarctic Bottom Water production cited by Broecker (2000). The sinusoidal form of this conceptual model is therefore reinforced by both old and new data, and provides insights into world-wide climate change. The second contribution of this paper is a hypothesis for the initiation of Pleistocene ice ages, typified by the Last Ice Age that began 120 000 yr BP. Instead of the classical Northern high-latitude summer cooling caused by orbital precession and changes in Earth's axis inclination, this hypothesis proposes the sudden onset of year-round ice-free seas west of Greenland, with greatly increased precipitation in the ice sheet nucleation regions of Baffin Island, northern Quebec, and Labrador. Devon Island ice-core studies by Koerner at al. (1988) and deep-sea sediment data reported by Fillon (1985) support the concept of ice-free seas west of Greenland and imply the initial meteorological conditions that are proposed here. These conditions are consistent with the heavy precipitation inferred by Adkins et al. (1997) from deep-sea sediment data. The changes in northeastern Canada were accompanied by quite cold conditions in northern Europe, inferred by Field et al. (1994) from tree pollen data. The European cooling was probably caused by loss of the recurring Iceland low-pressure system due to the dominant effect of a frequent stronger low-pressure system over the Labrador Sea, as postulated in this paper. The key to ice-free seas west of Greenland is the loss of the near-surface stratification that normally enables sea ice to freeze. Using the high-resolution European Space Agency's ENVISAT system, I have monitored the flows through the Nares Strait and found that the dominant southward flow of lower density polar water into Baffin Bay correlated with the growing area of seasonal sea ice forming early in the winter in the Bay near the southern end of the Strait. This implies that low-salinity polar water was the cause of the stratification. A search for the cause of the stratification loss then became a search for the cause of the loss of the southward flow of polar water. The loss could have occurred if denser and more saline Atlantic water replaced the polar water in-flow. Medieval historical records suggest that an analogous partial replacement probably did occur during the early medieval climatic optimum, with some warmer Atlantic water removing the thick perennial sea ice along Greenland's north coast. The NADW formation rate and the Spitsbergen-Atlantic Current (SAC) flow were then near maximum values. I hypothesize that enough of the thick perennial sea ice along Greenland's north coast was removed by the penetration of the SAC flow into the polar ocean to enable a medieval voyage eastward along the coast in AD 1118. This voyage is implied by an old map record showing Greenland realistically as an island. An even stronger SAC flow associated with a stronger maximum in the 1500 yr intrinsic oscillation of the oceanic system was the likely trigger for the initial conditions of ice-sheet growth when the Last Ice Age began. The third contribution of this paper is the hypothesis that modern society's activities might cause a repetition of the transition to an ice age threshold climate within one or two decades from 2013. This possibility depends on a continuing increase of salinity in the seas east of Greenland, with a corresponding increase of NADW formation and the SAC flow. The increase is currently being driven by the increasing rate of the saline Mediterranean outflow that contributes to the North Atlantic Drift. The rate increase is a consequence of the increasing salinity of the Mediterranean Sea as reported by European oceanographers (Science, 279, 483-484, 1998). The rising salinity of the Mediterranean and its increasing outflow is attributed to the diversion of nearly all the in-flowing rivers for irrigation. A further substantial salinity increase should occur with the loss of all perennial polar sea ice possibly within one or two decades from 2013 if the present trend of loss continues. The trend is displayed on the University of Illinois internet site: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/. The increasing salinity of the Greenland Sea is now reflected in an increasing northward winter penetration by the SAC flow. According to Lamb (1972), during the early 20th century at the time of maximum extension of sea ice in April, open water normally extended only as far north as the southern cape of Spitsbergen at about 76.6° N. But in Aprils of 2013 and 2014, open water extended 380 km farther northward to the north coast of Spitsbergen. When the SAC was running strongly to replace sinking NADW in February of 2014, I observed open water extending about 730 km north from the cape into the polar ocean to latitude 83° N, where the penetration of the SAC flow was beginning to obstruct the southward flow of polar water. Even greater seasonal extensions of the SAC flow are expected with an additional Greenland Sea salinity increase after the loss of all perennial polar sea ice. This could cut off southward movement of polar water through the Fram Strait during much of the winter, and send annual pulses of the denser Atlantic water of the SAC flow into the sea north of Greenland. If these annual pulses begin to occur and allow enough denser Atlantic water to flow southward through the Nares Strait, the Baffin Bay stratification would be lost and a switch to an ice age threshold would occur. The severity of the resulting cold regional climate might have a disruptive effect on higher-latitude societies.

Changes of Arctic Marine Glaciers and Ice Caps from CryoSat Swath Altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tepes, P.; Gourmelen, N.; Weissgerber, F.; Escorihuela, M. J.; Wuite, J.; Nagler, T.; Foresta, L.; Brockley, D.; Baker, S.; Roca, M.; Shepherd, A.; Plummer, S.

2017-12-01

Glaciers and ice caps (GICs) are major contributors to the current budget of global mean sea level change. Ice losses from GICs are expected to increase over the next century and beyond (Gardner et al., 2011), particularly in the Arctic where mean annual surface temperatures have recently been increasing twice as fast as the global average (Screen and Simmonds, 2010). Investigating cryospheric changes over GICs from space-based observations has proven to be challenging due in large part to the limited spatial and temporal resolution of present day observation techniques compared to the relatively small size and the steep and complex terrain that often define GICs. As a result, not much is known about modern changes in ice mass in most of these smaller glaciated regions of the Arctic (Moholdt et al., 2012; Carr et al., 2014). Radar altimetry is well suited to monitoring elevation changes over land ice due to its all-weather year-round capability of observing ice surfaces. Since 2010, the Synthetic Interferometric Radar Altimeter (SIRAL) on board the European Space Agency (ESA) radar altimetry CryoSat (CS) mission has been collecting ice elevation measurements over GICs. Data from the CS-SARIn mode have been used to infer high resolution elevation and elevation change rates using "swath processing" (Hawley et al., 2009; Gray et al., 2013; Christie et al., 2016; Foresta et al., 2016; Smith et al., 2016). Together with a denser ground track interspacing of the CS mission, swath processing provides measurements at unprecedented spatial coverage and resolution, enabling the study of key processes that underlie current changes of GICs in the Arctic. In this study, we use CS swath observations to identify patterns of change of marine versus land-terminating glaciers across the Arctic. We generate maps of ice elevation change rates and present estimates of volumetric changes for GICs outside of Greenland. We then compare marine versus land terminating glaciers in terms of their relative contribution to changes in sea level since 2010.

Bellingshausen Sea Ice Extent Recorded in an Antarctic Peninsula Ice Core

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Porter, Stacy E.; Parkinson, Claire L.; Mosley-Thompson, Ellen

2016-01-01

Annual net accumulation (A(sub n)) from the Bruce Plateau (BP) ice core retrieved from the Antarctic Peninsula exhibits a notable relationship with sea ice extent (SIE) in the Bellingshausen Sea. Over the satellite era, both BP A(sub n) and Bellingshausen SIE are influenced by large-scale climatic factors such as the Amundsen Sea Low, Southern Annular Mode, and Southern Oscillation. In addition to the direct response of BP A(sub n) to Bellingshausen SIE (e.g., more open water as a moisture source), these large-scale climate phenomena also link the BP and the Bellingshausen Sea indirectly such that they exhibit similar responses (e.g., northerly wind anomalies advect warm, moist air to the Antarctic Peninsula and neighboring Bellingshausen Sea, which reduces SIE and increases A(sub n)). Comparison with a time series of fast ice at South Orkney Islands reveals a relationship between BP A(sub n) and sea ice in the northern Weddell Sea that is relatively consistent over the twentieth century, except when it is modulated by atmospheric wave patterns described by the Trans-Polar Index. The trend of increasing accumulation on the Bruce Plateau since approximately 1970 agrees with other climate records and reconstructions in the region and suggests that the current rate of sea ice loss in the Bellingshausen Sea is unrivaled in the twentieth century.

Fast Response of the Tropics to an Abrupt Loss of Arctic Sea Ice via Ocean Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kun; Deser, Clara; Sun, Lantao; Tomas, Robert A.

2018-05-01

The role of ocean dynamics in the transient adjustment of the coupled climate system to an abrupt loss of Arctic sea ice is investigated using experiments with Community Climate System Model version 4 in two configurations: a thermodynamic slab mixed layer ocean and a full-depth ocean that includes both dynamics and thermodynamics. Ocean dynamics produce a distinct sea surface temperature warming maximum in the eastern equatorial Pacific, accompanied by an equatorward intensification of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and Hadley Circulation. These tropical responses are established within 25 years of ice loss and contrast markedly with the quasi-steady antisymmetric coupled response in the slab-ocean configuration. A heat budget analysis reveals the importance of anomalous vertical advection tied to a monotonic temperature increase below 200 m for the equatorial sea surface temperature warming maximum in the fully coupled model. Ocean dynamics also rapidly modify the midlatitude atmospheric response to sea ice loss.

Ice Crystal Icing Engine Testing in the NASA Glenn Research Center's Propulsion Systems Laboratory: Altitude Investigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oliver, Michael J.

2014-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) conducted a full scale ice crystal icing turbofan engine test using an obsolete Allied Signal ALF502-R5 engine in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) at NASA Glenn Research Center. The test article used was the exact engine that experienced a loss of power event after the ingestion of ice crystals while operating at high altitude during a 1997 Honeywell flight test campaign investigating the turbofan engine ice crystal icing phenomena. The test plan included test points conducted at the known flight test campaign field event pressure altitude and at various pressure altitudes ranging from low to high throughout the engine operating envelope. The test article experienced a loss of power event at each of the altitudes tested. For each pressure altitude test point conducted the ambient static temperature was predicted using a NASA engine icing risk computer model for the given ambient static pressure while maintaining the engine speed.

Antarctic Ice Shelf Loss Comes From Underneath

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

Calving front of an ice shelf in West Antarctica. The traditional view on ice shelves, the floating extensions of seaward glaciers, has been that they mostly lose ice by shedding icebergs. A new study by NASA and university researchers has found that warm ocean waters melting the ice sheets from underneath account for 55 percent of all ice shelf mass loss in Antarctica. This image was taken during the 2012 Antarctic campaign of NASA's Operation IceBridge, a mission that provided data for the new ice shelf study. Read more: www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/earth20130613.html Credit: NASA/GSFC/Jefferson Beck NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Microwave signatures of snow, ice and soil at several wavelengths

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gloersen, P.; Schmugge, T. J.; Chang, T. C.

1974-01-01

Analyses of data obtained from aircraft-borne radiometers have shown that the microwave signatures of various parts of the terrain depend on both the volume scattering cross-section and the dielectric loss in the medium. In soil, it has been found that experimental data fit a model in which the scattering cross section is negligible compared to the dielectric loss. On the other hand, the volume scattering cross-section in snow and continental ice was found, from analyzing data obtained with aircraft- and spacecraft-borne radiometers, to be more important than the dielectric loss or surface reflectivity in determining the observed microwave emissivity. A model which assumes Mie scattering of ice particles of various sizes was found to be the dominant volume scattering mechanism in these media. Both spectral variation in the microwave signatures of snow and ice fields, as well as the variation in the emissivity of continental ice sheets such as those covering Greenland and Antarctica appear to be consistent with this model.

Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California's rainfall.

PubMed

Cvijanovic, Ivana; Santer, Benjamin D; Bonfils, Céline; Lucas, Donald D; Chiang, John C H; Zimmerman, Susan

2017-12-05

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California's precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.

Low-Centred Polygons and Alas-Like Basins as Geological Markers of Warming Trends Late in Mars' History

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soare, R. J.; Conway, S. J.; Godin, E.; Osinski, G.; Hawkswell, J.; Bina, A.

2017-12-01

Expansive assemblages of low/high centred (ice-wedge) polygons and (polygonised) flat-floored thermokarst-basins (alases) are ubiquitous on Earth where the permafrost is continuous, metres to decametres-thick and ice rich, i.e. the Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands of northern Canada and the Yamal Peninsula of eastern Russia. These assemblages are geological bellwethers of transient and on occasion, long-term rises of sub-aerial and thaw-generating mean temperatures, for two principal reasons. First, high-centred (ice-wedge) polygons evolve from low-centred (ice-wedge) polygons when ice wedges that have aggraded and uplift overlying sediments above the elevation datum at the polygon centres, degrade, by thaw, and induce the loss of elevation below that datum. Second, thermokarst terrain comprises sediments whose pore volume is exceeded by the presence of water ice. A thermokarst basin (an alas) forms if and only when this ice undergoes thermal destabilisation and where thaw-generated meltwater is lost by evaporation or drainage. Spatially-associated and morphologically-similar assemblages of polygons and basins are commonplace throughout the mid-latitudes of eastern Utopia Planitia (UP), Mars. Under current conditions of extreme aridity, low atmospheric-pressure and frigid mean-temperatures, the widespread formation of ice-rich terrain by freeze-thaw cycling, let alone of near-surface ice-wedges and/or thermokarst basins, seems implausible. Against this environmental backdrop, sublimation seemingly stands alone in being able to revise ice-rich landscapes. However, multiple strands of data point to the possible periglacial-assemblages (PPAs) being youthful but not current in their formation. First, the sub-regional and dark-toned terrain incised by the PPAs is cratered more densely than would be expected. Second, the PPAs reside at a lower relative and absolute elevation than a light-toned and region-wide latitude-dependent mantle that is generally thought to be very recent in origin. These strands and others point to a earlier period in the geological history of UP, perhaps in conjunction with shifts in obliquity and eccentricity, when liquid-water would have been stable enough to sustain freeze-thaw cycling, wet periglacial processes and, derivatively, the development of the PPAs.

Simulation Modeling Requirements for Loss-of-Control Accident Prevention of Turboprop Transport Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crider, Dennis; Foster, John V.

2012-01-01

In-flight loss of control remains the leading contributor to aviation accident fatalities, with stall upsets being the leading causal factor. The February 12, 2009. Colgan Air, Inc., Continental Express flight 3407 accident outside Buffalo, New York, brought this issue to the forefront of public consciousness and resulted in recommendations from the National Transportation Safety Board to conduct training that incorporates stalls that are fully developed and develop simulator standards to support such training. In 2010, Congress responded to this accident with Public Law 11-216 (Section 208), which mandates full stall training for Part 121 flight operations. Efforts are currently in progress to develop recommendations on implementation of stall training for airline pilots. The International Committee on Aviation Training in Extended Envelopes (ICATEE) is currently defining simulator fidelity standards that will be necessary for effective stall training. These recommendations will apply to all civil transport aircraft including straight-wing turboprop aircraft. Government-funded research over the previous decade provides a strong foundation for stall/post-stall simulation for swept-wing, conventional tail jets to respond to this mandate, but turboprops present additional and unique modeling challenges. First among these challenges is the effect of power, which can provide enhanced flow attachment behind the propellers. Furthermore, turboprops tend to operate for longer periods in an environment more susceptible to ice. As a result, there have been a significant number of turboprop accidents as a result of the early (lower angle of attack) stalls in icing. The vulnerability of turboprop configurations to icing has led to studies on ice accumulation and the resulting effects on flight behavior. Piloted simulations of these effects have highlighted the important training needs for recognition and mitigation of icing effects, including the reduction of stall margins. This paper addresses simulation modeling requirements that are unique to turboprop transport aircraft and highlights the growing need for aerodynamic models suitable for stall training for these configurations. A review of prominent accidents that involved aerodynamic stall is used to illustrate various modeling features unique to turboprop configurations and the impact of stall behavior on susceptibility to loss of control that has led to new training requirements. This is followed by an overview of stability and control behavior of straight-wing turboprops, the related aerodynamic characteristics, and a summary of recent experimental studies on icing effects. In addition, differences in flight dynamics behavior between swept-wing jets and straight-wing turboprop configurations are discussed to compare and contrast modeling requirements. Specific recommendations for aerodynamic models along with further research needs and data measurements are also provided. 1

Arctic marine mammal population status, sea ice habitat loss, and conservation recommendations for the 21st century

PubMed Central

Stern, Harry; Kovacs, Kit M.; Lowry, Lloyd; Moore, Sue E.; Regehr, Eric V.; Ferguson, Steven H.; Wiig, Øystein; Boveng, Peter; Angliss, Robyn P.; Born, Erik W.; Litovka, Dennis; Quakenbush, Lori; Lydersen, Christian; Vongraven, Dag; Ugarte, Fernando

2015-01-01

Abstract Arctic marine mammals (AMMs) are icons of climate change, largely because of their close association with sea ice. However, neither a circumpolar assessment of AMM status nor a standardized metric of sea ice habitat change is available. We summarized available data on abundance and trend for each AMM species and recognized subpopulation. We also examined species diversity, the extent of human use, and temporal trends in sea ice habitat for 12 regions of the Arctic by calculating the dates of spring sea ice retreat and fall sea ice advance from satellite data (1979–2013). Estimates of AMM abundance varied greatly in quality, and few studies were long enough for trend analysis. Of the AMM subpopulations, 78% (61 of 78) are legally harvested for subsistence purposes. Changes in sea ice phenology have been profound. In all regions except the Bering Sea, the duration of the summer (i.e., reduced ice) period increased by 5–10 weeks and by >20 weeks in the Barents Sea between 1979 and 2013. In light of generally poor data, the importance of human use, and forecasted environmental changes in the 21st century, we recommend the following for effective AMM conservation: maintain and improve comanagement by local, federal, and international partners; recognize spatial and temporal variability in AMM subpopulation response to climate change; implement monitoring programs with clear goals; mitigate cumulative impacts of increased human activity; and recognize the limits of current protected species legislation. PMID:25783745

Mars Express MARSIS Radar: A Prediction of the Effect of Overlying Ice on Detecting Polar Basal Lakes and Inter-Glacial Aquifers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farrell, W. M.; Plaut, J. J.; Gurnett, D. A.; Picardi, G.

2004-01-01

The penetration of the MARSIS radar signal into the polar ice mass is modeled to determine the capability of the instrument to locate sub-glacial aquifers. As a ground penetrating radar, the orbiting MARSIS transmits a signal greater than 1 W between 1-5 MHz. In this work we will investigate the effect of ice conductive losses on the radar-detection of subsurface aquifers. Based on wave propagation analysis, it is found that for a bulk ice conductivity below 10-5 S/m, conductive losses in the medium are not significant. However, if the bulk ice conductivity is relatively large (greater than 10-5 S/m), the reflected signal from any deep aquifer will be absorbed as it propagates in the lossy ice medium limiting the probing depth.

Summer declines in activity and body temperature offer polar bears limited energy savings

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whiteman, J.P.; Harlow, H.J.; Durner, George M.; Anderson-Sprecher, R.; Albeke, Shannon E.; Regehr, Eric V.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Ben-David, M.

2015-01-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) summer on the sea ice or, where it melts, on shore. Although the physiology of “ice” bears in summer is unknown, “shore” bears purportedly minimize energy losses by entering a hibernation-like state when deprived of food. Such a strategy could partially compensate for the loss of on-ice foraging opportunities caused by climate change. However, here we report gradual, moderate declines in activity and body temperature of both shore and ice bears in summer, resembling energy expenditures typical of fasting, nonhibernating mammals. Also, we found that to avoid unsustainable heat loss while swimming, bears employed unusual heterothermy of the body core. Thus, although well adapted to seasonal ice melt, polar bears appear susceptible to deleterious declines in body condition during the lengthening period of summer food deprivation.

Concentrations of a triplet excited state are enhanced in illuminated ice.

PubMed

Chen, Zeyuan; Anastasio, Cort

2017-01-25

Photochemical reactions influence the fates and lifetimes of organic compounds in snow and ice, both through direct photoreactions and via photoproduced transient species such as hydroxyl radical (˙OH) and, perhaps, triplet excited states of organic compounds (i.e., triplets). While triplets can be important oxidants in atmospheric drops and surface waters, little is known of this class of oxidants in frozen samples. To investigate this, we examined the photoreaction of phenol with the triplet state of 3,4-dimethoxybenzaldehyde ( 3 DMB*), a product from biomass combustion, in illuminated laboratory ices. Our results show that the rate of phenol loss due to 3 DMB* is, on average, increased by a factor of 95 ± 50 in ice compared to the equivalent liquid sample. We find that this experimentally measured freeze concentration factor, F EXP , is independent of total solute concentration and temperature, in contrast to what is expected from a liquid-like region whose composition follows freezing point depression. We also find that F EXP for triplets is independent of pH, although the rates of phenol loss increase with decreasing pH in both solution and ice. The enhancement in the rate of phenol loss in/on ice indicates that concentrations of triplet excited states are enhanced in ice relative to solution and suggests that this class of oxidants might be a significant sink for organics in snow and ice.

Modelling seasonal meltwater forcing of the velocity of land-terminating margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koziol, Conrad P.; Arnold, Neil

2018-03-01

Surface runoff at the margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) drains to the ice-sheet bed, leading to enhanced summer ice flow. Ice velocities show a pattern of early summer acceleration followed by mid-summer deceleration due to evolution of the subglacial hydrology system in response to meltwater forcing. Modelling the integrated hydrological-ice dynamics system to reproduce measured velocities at the ice margin remains a key challenge for validating the present understanding of the system and constraining the impact of increasing surface runoff rates on dynamic ice mass loss from the GrIS. Here we show that a multi-component model incorporating supraglacial, subglacial, and ice dynamic components applied to a land-terminating catchment in western Greenland produces modelled velocities which are in reasonable agreement with those observed in GPS records for three melt seasons of varying melt intensities. This provides numerical support for the hypothesis that the subglacial system develops analogously to alpine glaciers and supports recent model formulations capturing the transition between distributed and channelized states. The model shows the growth of efficient conduit-based drainage up-glacier from the ice sheet margin, which develops more extensively, and further inland, as melt intensity increases. This suggests current trends of decadal-timescale slowdown of ice velocities in the ablation zone may continue in the near future. The model results also show a strong scaling between average summer velocities and melt season intensity, particularly in the upper ablation area. Assuming winter velocities are not impacted by channelization, our model suggests an upper bound of a 25 % increase in annual surface velocities as surface melt increases to 4 × present levels.

Relating Sub-Surface Ice Features to Physiological Stress in a Climate Sensitive Mammal, the American Pika (Ochotona princeps)

PubMed Central

Wilkening, Jennifer L.; Ray, Chris; Varner, Johanna

2015-01-01

The American pika (Ochotona princeps) is considered a sentinel species for detecting ecological effects of climate change. Pikas are declining within a large portion of their range, and ongoing research suggests loss of sub-surface ice as a mechanism. However, no studies have demonstrated physiological responses of pikas to sub-surface ice features. Here we present the first analysis of physiological stress in pikas living in and adjacent to habitats underlain by ice. Fresh fecal samples were collected non-invasively from two adjacent sites in the Rocky Mountains (one with sub-surface ice and one without) and analyzed for glucocorticoid metabolites (GCM). We also measured sub-surface microclimates in each habitat. Results indicate lower GCM concentration in sites with sub-surface ice, suggesting that pikas are less stressed in favorable microclimates resulting from sub-surface ice features. GCM response was well predicted by habitat characteristics associated with sub-surface ice features, such as lower mean summer temperatures. These results suggest that pikas inhabiting areas without sub-surface ice features are experiencing higher levels of physiological stress and may be more susceptible to changing climates. Although post-deposition environmental effects can confound analyses based on fecal GCM, we found no evidence for such effects in this study. Sub-surface ice features are key to water cycling and storage and will likely represent an increasingly important component of water resources in a warming climate. Fecal samples collected from additional watersheds as part of current pika monitoring programs could be used to further characterize relationships between pika stress and sub-surface ice features. PMID:25803587

Interannual Variability of Snow and Ice and Impact on the Carbon Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yung, Yuk L.

2004-01-01

The goal of this research is to assess the impact of the interannual variability in snow/ice using global satellite data sets acquired in the last two decades. This variability will be used as input to simulate the CO2 interannual variability at high latitudes using a biospheric model. The progress in the past few years is summarized as follows: 1) Albedo decrease related to spring snow retreat; 2) Observed effects of interannual summertime sea ice variations on the polar reflectance; 3) The Northern Annular Mode response to Arctic sea ice loss and the sensitivity of troposphere-stratosphere interaction; 4) The effect of Arctic warming and sea ice loss on the growing season in northern terrestrial ecosystem.

Mitigation implications of an ice-free summer in the Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Eguino, Mikel; Neumann, Marc B.; Arto, Iñaki; Capellán-Perez, Iñigo; Faria, Sérgio H.

2017-01-01

The rapid loss of sea ice in the Arctic is one of the most striking manifestations of climate change. As sea ice melts, more open water is exposed to solar radiation, absorbing heat and generating a sea-ice-albedo feedback that reinforces Arctic warming. Recent studies stress the significance of this feedback mechanism and suggest that ice-free summer conditions in the Arctic Ocean may occur faster than previously expected, even under low-emissions pathways. Here we use an integrated assessment model to explore the implications of a potentially rapid sea-ice-loss process. We consider a scenario leading to a full month free of sea ice in September 2050, followed by three potential trajectories afterward: partial recovery, stabilization, and continued loss of sea ice. We analyze how these scenarios affect the efforts to keep global temperature increase below 2°C. Our results show that sea-ice melting in the Arctic requires more stringent mitigation efforts globally. We find that global CO2 emissions would need to reach zero levels 5-15 years earlier and that the carbon budget would need to be reduced by 20%-51% to offset this additional source of warming. The extra mitigation effort would imply an 18%-59% higher mitigation cost to society. Our results also show that to achieve the 1.5°C target in the presence of ice-free summers negative emissions would be needed. This study highlights the need for a better understanding of how the rapid changes observed in the Arctic may impact our society.

Monitoring southwest Greenland's ice sheet melt with ambient seismic noise.

PubMed

Mordret, Aurélien; Mikesell, T Dylan; Harig, Christopher; Lipovsky, Bradley P; Prieto, Germán A

2016-05-01

The Greenland ice sheet presently accounts for ~70% of global ice sheet mass loss. Because this mass loss is associated with sea-level rise at a rate of 0.7 mm/year, the development of improved monitoring techniques to observe ongoing changes in ice sheet mass balance is of paramount concern. Spaceborne mass balance techniques are commonly used; however, they are inadequate for many purposes because of their low spatial and/or temporal resolution. We demonstrate that small variations in seismic wave speed in Earth's crust, as measured with the correlation of seismic noise, may be used to infer seasonal ice sheet mass balance. Seasonal loading and unloading of glacial mass induces strain in the crust, and these strains then result in seismic velocity changes due to poroelastic processes. Our method provides a new and independent way of monitoring (in near real time) ice sheet mass balance, yielding new constraints on ice sheet evolution and its contribution to global sea-level changes. An increased number of seismic stations in the vicinity of ice sheets will enhance our ability to create detailed space-time records of ice mass variations.

Mass Loss of Larsen B Tributary Glaciers (Antarctic Peninsula) Unabated Since 2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berthier, Etienne; Scambos, Ted; Shuman, Christopher A.

2012-01-01

Ice mass loss continues at a high rate among the large glacier tributaries of the Larsen B Ice Shelf following its disintegration in 2002. We evaluate recent mass loss by mapping elevation changes between 2006 and 201011 using differencing of digital elevation models (DEMs). The measurement accuracy of these elevation changes is confirmed by a null test, subtracting DEMs acquired within a few weeks. The overall 2006201011 mass loss rate (9.0 2.1 Gt a-1) is similar to the 2001022006 rate (8.8 1.6 Gt a-1), derived using DEM differencing and laser altimetry. This unchanged overall loss masks a varying pattern of thinning and ice loss for individual glacier basins. On Crane Glacier, the thinning pulse, initially greatest near the calving front, is now broadening and migrating upstream. The largest losses are now observed for the HektoriaGreen glacier basin, having increased by 33 since 2006. Our method has enabled us to resolve large residual uncertainties in the Larsen B sector and confirm its state of ongoing rapid mass loss.

Body movements during the off-ice execution of back spins in figure skating.

PubMed

Mapelli, Andrea; Rodano, Renato; Fiorentini, Angelo; Giustolisi, Andrea; Sidequersky, Fernanda V; Sforza, Chiarella

2013-10-01

Using an optoelectronic motion capture system, we quantitatively assessed the arrangement of body segments and the displacement of the horizontal projection of the center of mass (CM) in seven skaters performing off-ice back spins on a rotating device (spinner). The position of the CM at the beginning of the spins was not a determining factor, but its rapid stabilization towards the center of the spinner, together with the achievement of a stable arrangement of trunk and limbs, was crucial to get the dynamic equilibrium, necessary for a lasting performance. At full spinning, however, there was an indicative variety of individual body postures. A final deceleration, associable with the loss of body equilibrium, was detected in the last spin of most of skaters. In conclusion, the current investigation demonstrated that the off-ice execution of back spin, a critical movement of ice skating, can be measured in laboratory, thus providing quantitative information to both the skaters and the coaches. The analysis is not invasive, and it may be proposed also for longitudinal evaluations of skating and postural training. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Iceberg severity off eastern North America: Its relationship to sea ice variability and climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marko, J.R.; Fissel, D.B.; Wadhams, P.

1994-09-01

Iceberg trajectory, deterioration (mass loss), and sea ice data are reviewed to identify the sources of observed interannual and seasonal variations in the numbers of icebergs passing south of 48[degrees]N off eastern North America. The results show the dominant role of sea ice in the observed variations. Important mechanisms involved include both seasonal modulation of the southerly iceberg flow by ice cover control of probabilities for entrapment and decay in shallow water, and the suppression of iceberg melt/deterioration rates by high concentrations of sea ice. The Labrador spring ice extent, shown to be the critical parameter in interannual iceberg numbermore » variability, was found to be either determined by or closely correlated with midwinter Davis Strait ice extents. Agreement obtained between observed year-to-year and seasonal number variations with computations based upon a simple iceberg dissipation model suggests that downstream iceberg numbers are relatively insensitive to iceberg production rates and to fluctuations in southerly iceberg fluxes in areas north of Baffin Island. Past variations in the Davis Strait ice index and annual ice extents are studied to identify trends and relationships between regional and larger-scale global climate parameters. It was found that, on decadal timescales in the post-1960 period of reasonable data quality, regional climate parameters have varied, roughly, out of phase with corresponding global and hemispheric changes. These observations are compared with expectations in terms of model results to evaluate current GCM-based capabilities for simulating recent regional behavior. 64 refs., 11 figs., 3 tabs.« less

Effects of ice shelf basal melt variability on evolution of Thwaites Glacier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, M. J.; Fyke, J. G.; Price, S. F.; Asay-Davis, X.; Perego, M.

2017-12-01

Theory, modeling, and observations indicate that marine ice sheets on a retrograde bed, including Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica, are only conditionally stable. Previous modeling studies have shown that rapid, unstable retreat can occur when steady ice-shelf basal melting causes the grounding line to retreat past restraining bedrock bumps. Here we explore the initiation and evolution of unstable retreat of Thwaites Glacier when the ice-shelf basal melt forcing includes temporal variability mimicking realistic climate variability. We use the three-dimensional, higher-order Model for Prediction Across Scales-Land Ice (MPASLI) model forced with an ice shelf basal melt parameterization derived from previous coupled ice sheet/ocean simulations. We add sinusoidal temporal variability to the melt parameterization that represents shoaling and deepening of Circumpolar Deep Water. We perform an ensemble of 250 year duration simulations with different values for the amplitude, period, and phase of the variability. Preliminary results suggest that, overall, variability leads to slower grounding line retreat and less mass loss than steady simulations. Short period (2 yr) variability leads to similar results as steady forcing, whereas decadal variability can result in up to one-third less mass loss. Differences in phase lead to a large range in mass loss/grounding line retreat, but it is always less than the steady forcing. The timing of ungrounding from each restraining bedrock bump, which is strongly affected by the melt variability, is the rate limiting factor, and variability-driven delays in ungrounding at each bump accumulate. Grounding line retreat in the regions between bedrock bumps is relatively unaffected by ice shelf melt variability. While the results are sensitive to the form of the melt parameterization and its variability, we conclude that decadal period ice shelf melt variability could potentially delay marine ice sheet instability by up to many decades. However, it does not alter the eventual mass loss and sea level rise at centennial scales. The potential differences are significant enough to highlight the need for further observations to constrain the amplitude and period of the modes of climate and ocean variability relevant to Antarctic ice shelf melting.

How much can Greenland melt? An upper bound on mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet through surface melting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Bassis, J. N.

2015-12-01

With observations showing accelerated mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet due to surface melt, the Greenland Ice Sheet is becoming one of the most significant contributors to sea level rise. The contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet o sea level rise is likely to accelerate in the coming decade and centuries as atmospheric temperatures continue to rise, potentially triggering ever larger surface melt rates. However, at present considerable uncertainty remains in projecting the contribution to sea level of the Greenland Ice Sheet both due to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and the ice sheet response to climate forcing. Here we seek an upper bound on the contribution of surface melt from the Greenland to sea level rise in the coming century using a surface energy balance model coupled to an englacial model. We use IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5, RCP6, RCP4.5, RCP2.6) climate scenarios from an ensemble of global climate models in our simulations to project the maximum rate of ice volume loss and related sea-level rise associated with surface melting. To estimate the upper bound, we assume the Greenland Ice Sheet is perpetually covered in thick clouds, which maximize longwave radiation to the ice sheet. We further assume that deposition of black carbon darkens the ice substantially turning it nearly black, substantially reducing its albedo. Although assuming that all melt water not stored in the snow/firn is instantaneously transported off the ice sheet increases mass loss in the short term, refreezing of retained water warms the ice and may lead to more melt in the long term. Hence we examine both assumptions and use the scenario that leads to the most surface melt by 2100. Preliminary models results suggest that under the most aggressive climate forcing, surface melt from the Greenland Ice Sheet contributes ~1 m to sea level by the year 2100. This is a significant contribution and ignores dynamic effects. We also examined a lower bound, assuming negligible longwave radiation and albedo near the maximum observed for freshly fallen snow. Even under this scenarios preliminary estimates suggest tens of centimeters of sea level rise by 2100.

Collaborative, International Efforts at Estimating Arctic Sea Ice Processes During IPY (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overland, J. E.; Eicken, H.; Wiggins, H. V.

2009-12-01

Planning for the fourth IPY was conducted during a time of moderate decadal change in the Arctic. However, after this initial planning was completed, further rapid changes were seen, including a 39 % reduction in summer sea ice extent in 2007 and 2008 relative to the 1980s-1990s, loss of multi-year sea ice, and increased sea ice mobility. The SEARCH and DAMOCLES Programs endeavored to increase communication within the research community to promote observations and understanding of rapidly changing Arctic sea ice conditions during IPY. In May 2008 a web-based Sea Ice Outlook was initiated, an international collaborative effort that synthesizes, on a monthly basis throughout the summer, the community’s projections for September arctic sea ice extent. Each month, participating investigators provided a projection for the mean September sea ice extent based on spring and early summer data, along with a rationale for their estimates. The Outlook continued in summer of 2009. The Outlook is a method of rapidly synthesizing a broad range of remote sensing and field observations collected at the peak of the IPY, with analysis methods ranging from heuristic to statistical to ice-ocean model ensemble runs. The 2008 Outlook was a success with 20 groups participating and providing a median sea ice extent projection from June 2008 data of 4.4 million square kilometers (MSQK)—near the observed extent in September 2008 of 4.7 MSQK, and well below the 1979-2007 climatological extent of 6.7 MSQK. More importantly, the contrast of sea ice conditions and atmospheric forcing in 2008 compared to 2007 provided clues to the future fate of arctic sea ice. The question was whether the previous loss of multi-year ice and delay in autumn freeze-up in 2007 would allow sufficient winter thickening of sea ice to last through the summer 2008, promoting recovery from the 2007 minimum, or whether most first-year sea ice would melt out as in 2005 and 2007, resulting in a new record minimum extent. Ultimately, neither extreme was observed. For September 2009 the median projection based on June 2009 data was 4.6 MSQK. June and July conditions were favorable for another record ice loss, but atmospheric circulation and cloudiness in August slowed ice retreat, suggesting that the 2009 Outlook estimates will be too low. A conclusion of this IPY effort is that although it will be difficult for summer sea ice to return to 1990 conditions, it will also require near-perfect synchrony in physical forcing as in 2007 to produce the next major loss event. The Outlook plans to continue.

Overview of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance and Dynamics from ICESat Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay

2010-01-01

The primary purpose of the ICESat mission was to determine the present-day mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, identify changes that may be occurring in the surface-mass flux and ice dynamics, and estimate their contributions to global sea-level rise. Although ICESat's three lasers were planned to make continuous measurements for 3 to 5 years, the mission was re-planned to operate in 33-day campaigns 2 to 3 times each year following failure of the first laser after 36 days. Seventeen campaigns were conducted with the last one in the Fall of 2009. Mass balance maps derived from measured ice-sheet elevation changes show that the mass loss from Greenland has increased significantly to about 170 Gt/yr for 2003 to 2007 from a state of near balance in the 1990's. Increased losses (189 Gt/yr) from melting and dynamic thinning are over seven times larger'than increased gains (25 gt/yr) from precipitation. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet and the Antarctic Peninsula are losing mass at an increasing rate, but other parts of West Antarctica and the East Antarctic ice sheet are gaining mass at an increasing rate. Increased losses of 35 Gt/yr in Pine Island, Thwaites-Smith, and Marie-Bryd.Coast are more than balanced by gains in base of Peninsula and ice stream C, D, & E systems. From the 1992-2002 to 2003-2007 period, the overall mass balance for Antarctica changed from a loss of about 60 Gt/yr to near balance or slightly positive.

Forecasting Future Sea Ice Conditions: A Lagrangian Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Forecasting Future Sea Ice Conditions: A Lagrangian ...GCMs participating in IPCC AR5 agree with observed source region patterns from the satellite- derived dataset. 4- Compare Lagrangian ice... Lagrangian sea-ice back trajectories to estimate thermodynamic and dynamic (advection) ice loss. APPROACH We use a Lagrangian trajectory model to

Recent Changes in Arctic Glaciers, Ice Caps, and the Greenland Ice Sheet: Cold Facts About Warm Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdalati, W.

2005-12-01

One of the major manifestations of Arctic change can be observed in the state of balance of Arctic glaciers and ice caps and the Greenland ice sheet. These ice masses are estimated to contain nearly 3 million cubic kilometers of ice, which is more than six times greater than all the water stored in the Earth's lakes, rivers, and snow combined and is the equivalent of over 7 meters of sea level. Most of these ice masses have been shrinking in recent in years, but their mass balance is highly variable on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. On the Greenland ice sheet most of the coastal regions have thinned substantially as melt has increased and some of its outlet glaciers have accelerated. Near the equilibrium line in West Greenland, we have seen evidence of summer acceleration that is linked to surface meltwater production, suggesting a relatively rapid response mechanism of the ice sheet change to a warming climate. At the same time, however, the vast interior regions of the Greenland ice sheet have shown little change or slight growth, as accumulation in these areas may have increased. Throughout much of the rest of the Arctic, many glaciers and ice caps have been shrinking in the past few decades, and in Canada and Alaska, the rate of ice loss seems to have accelerated during the late 1990s. These recent observations offer only a snapshot in time of the long-term behavior, but they are providing crucial information about the current state of ice mass balance and the mechanisms that control it in one of the most climatically sensitive regions on Earth. As we continue to learn more through a combination of remote sensing observations, in situ measurements and improved modeling capabilities, it is important that we coordinate and integrate these approaches effectively in order to predict future changes and their impact on sea level, freshwater discharge, and ocean circulation.

Potential sea-level rise from Antarctic ice-sheet instability constrained by observations.

PubMed

Ritz, Catherine; Edwards, Tamsin L; Durand, Gaël; Payne, Antony J; Peyaud, Vincent; Hindmarsh, Richard C A

2015-12-03

Large parts of the Antarctic ice sheet lying on bedrock below sea level may be vulnerable to marine-ice-sheet instability (MISI), a self-sustaining retreat of the grounding line triggered by oceanic or atmospheric changes. There is growing evidence that MISI may be underway throughout the Amundsen Sea embayment (ASE), which contains ice equivalent to more than a metre of global sea-level rise. If triggered in other regions, the centennial to millennial contribution could be several metres. Physically plausible projections are challenging: numerical models with sufficient spatial resolution to simulate grounding-line processes have been too computationally expensive to generate large ensembles for uncertainty assessment, and lower-resolution model projections rely on parameterizations that are only loosely constrained by present day changes. Here we project that the Antarctic ice sheet will contribute up to 30 cm sea-level equivalent by 2100 and 72 cm by 2200 (95% quantiles) where the ASE dominates. Our process-based, statistical approach gives skewed and complex probability distributions (single mode, 10 cm, at 2100; two modes, 49 cm and 6 cm, at 2200). The dependence of sliding on basal friction is a key unknown: nonlinear relationships favour higher contributions. Results are conditional on assessments of MISI risk on the basis of projected triggers under the climate scenario A1B (ref. 9), although sensitivity to these is limited by theoretical and topographical constraints on the rate and extent of ice loss. We find that contributions are restricted by a combination of these constraints, calibration with success in simulating observed ASE losses, and low assessed risk in some basins. Our assessment suggests that upper-bound estimates from low-resolution models and physical arguments (up to a metre by 2100 and around one and a half by 2200) are implausible under current understanding of physical mechanisms and potential triggers.

Potential sea-level rise from Antarctic ice-sheet instability constrained by observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritz, Catherine; Edwards, Tamsin L.; Durand, Gaël; Payne, Antony J.; Peyaud, Vincent; Hindmarsh, Richard C. A.

2015-12-01

Large parts of the Antarctic ice sheet lying on bedrock below sea level may be vulnerable to marine-ice-sheet instability (MISI), a self-sustaining retreat of the grounding line triggered by oceanic or atmospheric changes. There is growing evidence that MISI may be underway throughout the Amundsen Sea embayment (ASE), which contains ice equivalent to more than a metre of global sea-level rise. If triggered in other regions, the centennial to millennial contribution could be several metres. Physically plausible projections are challenging: numerical models with sufficient spatial resolution to simulate grounding-line processes have been too computationally expensive to generate large ensembles for uncertainty assessment, and lower-resolution model projections rely on parameterizations that are only loosely constrained by present day changes. Here we project that the Antarctic ice sheet will contribute up to 30 cm sea-level equivalent by 2100 and 72 cm by 2200 (95% quantiles) where the ASE dominates. Our process-based, statistical approach gives skewed and complex probability distributions (single mode, 10 cm, at 2100; two modes, 49 cm and 6 cm, at 2200). The dependence of sliding on basal friction is a key unknown: nonlinear relationships favour higher contributions. Results are conditional on assessments of MISI risk on the basis of projected triggers under the climate scenario A1B (ref. 9), although sensitivity to these is limited by theoretical and topographical constraints on the rate and extent of ice loss. We find that contributions are restricted by a combination of these constraints, calibration with success in simulating observed ASE losses, and low assessed risk in some basins. Our assessment suggests that upper-bound estimates from low-resolution models and physical arguments (up to a metre by 2100 and around one and a half by 2200) are implausible under current understanding of physical mechanisms and potential triggers.

Ice stream activity scaled to ice sheet volume during Laurentide Ice Sheet deglaciation.

PubMed

Stokes, C R; Margold, M; Clark, C D; Tarasov, L

2016-02-18

The contribution of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets to sea level has increased in recent decades, largely owing to the thinning and retreat of outlet glaciers and ice streams. This dynamic loss is a serious concern, with some modelling studies suggesting that the collapse of a major ice sheet could be imminent or potentially underway in West Antarctica, but others predicting a more limited response. A major problem is that observations used to initialize and calibrate models typically span only a few decades, and, at the ice-sheet scale, it is unclear how the entire drainage network of ice streams evolves over longer timescales. This represents one of the largest sources of uncertainty when predicting the contributions of ice sheets to sea-level rise. A key question is whether ice streams might increase and sustain rates of mass loss over centuries or millennia, beyond those expected for a given ocean-climate forcing. Here we reconstruct the activity of 117 ice streams that operated at various times during deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (from about 22,000 to 7,000 years ago) and show that as they activated and deactivated in different locations, their overall number decreased, they occupied a progressively smaller percentage of the ice sheet perimeter and their total discharge decreased. The underlying geology and topography clearly influenced ice stream activity, but--at the ice-sheet scale--their drainage network adjusted and was linked to changes in ice sheet volume. It is unclear whether these findings can be directly translated to modern ice sheets. However, contrary to the view that sees ice streams as unstable entities that can accelerate ice-sheet deglaciation, we conclude that ice streams exerted progressively less influence on ice sheet mass balance during the retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet.

Abrupt shift in the observed runoff from the southwestern Greenland ice sheet

PubMed Central

Ahlstrøm, Andreas P.; Petersen, Dorthe; Langen, Peter L.; Citterio, Michele; Box, Jason E.

2017-01-01

The recent decades of accelerating mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet have arisen from an increase in both surface meltwater runoff and ice flow discharge from tidewater glaciers. Despite the role of the Greenland ice sheet as the dominant individual cryospheric contributor to sea level rise in recent decades, no observational record of its mass loss spans the 30-year period needed to assess its climatological state. We present for the first time a 40-year (1975–2014) time series of observed meltwater discharge from a >6500-km2 catchment of the southwestern Greenland ice sheet. We find that an abrupt 80% increase in runoff occurring between the 1976–2002 and 2003–2014 periods is due to a shift in atmospheric circulation, with meridional exchange events occurring more frequently over Greenland, establishing the first observation-based connection between ice sheet runoff and climate change. PMID:29242827

Review of the Aerodynamic Acceptance Test and Application to Anti-Icing Fluids Testing in the NRC Propulsion and Icing Wind Tunnel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Broeren, Andy P.; Riley, James T.

2012-01-01

In recent years, the FAA has worked with Transport Canada, National Research Council of Canada (NRC) and APS Aviation, Inc. to develop allowance times for aircraft operations in ice-pellet precipitation. These allowance times are critical to ensure safety and efficient operation of commercial and cargo flights. Wind-tunnel testing with uncontaminated anti-icing fluids and fluids contaminated with simulated ice-pellets had been carried out at the NRC Propulsion and Icing Wind Tunnel (PIWT) to better understand the flowoff characteristics and resulting aerodynamic effects. The percent lift loss on the thin, high-performance wing model tested in the PIWT was determined at 8 angle of attack and used as one of the evaluation criteria in determining the allowance times. Because it was unclear as to how performance degradations measured on this model were relevant to an actual airplane configuration, some means of interpreting the wing model lift loss was deemed necessary. In this report, the lift loss was related to the loss in maximum lift of a Boeing 737-200ADV airplane through the Aerodynamic Acceptance Test (AAT) performed for fluids qualification. This report provides a review of the research basis of the AAT in order to understand how this correlation was applied. A loss in maximum lift coefficient of 5.24 percent on the B737-200ADV airplane (which was adopted as the threshold in the AAT) corresponds to a lift loss of 7.3 percent on the PIWT model at 8 degrees angle of attack. There is significant scatter in the data used to develop the correlation related to varying effects of the various antiicing fluids that were tested and other factors. A statistical analysis indicated the upper limit of lift loss on the PIWT model was 9.2 percent. Therefore, for cases resulting in PIWT model lift loss from 7.3 to 9.2 percent, extra scrutiny of the visual observations is required in evaluating fluid performance with contamination. Additional research may result in future changes to this correlation.

SEA-LEVEL RISE. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods.

PubMed

Dutton, A; Carlson, A E; Long, A J; Milne, G A; Clark, P U; DeConto, R; Horton, B P; Rahmstorf, S; Raymo, M E

2015-07-10

Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo-sea level records. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Ridging and strength in modeling the thickness distribution of Arctic sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flato, Gregory M.; Hibler, William D.

1995-09-01

A theory describing evolution of the ice thickness distribution (the probability density of ice thickness) was proposed by Thorndike et al. (1975) and has been used in several sea ice models. The advantage of this theory over the widely used two-level formulation is that it treats ridging explicitly as a redistribution of ice thickness, and ice strength as a function of energy losses incurred by ridge formation. However, the parameterization of these processes remains rather speculative and largely untested, and so our purpose here is to explore these parameterizations using a numerical model based on this theory. The model uses a 160-km resolution grid of the Arctic and 7 years of observed atmospheric forcing data (1979-1985). Monthly oceanic heat flux and current fields are obtained from a 40-km resolution coupled ice-ocean model run separately with the same forcing. By requiring the computed monthly mean ice drift to have the same magnitude as observed buoy drift, we estimate the primary strength parameter: the ratio of total to potential energy change during ridging. This ratio depends on the value of other parameters; however, the standard case has a ratio of 17 which is within the range estimated by Hopkins (1994) in simulations of individual ridging events. The effects of ridge redistribution and shear ridging parameters are illustrated by a series of sensitivity studies and comparisons between observed and modeled ice thickness distributions and ridge statistics. In addition, these comparisons highlight the following shortcomings of the thickness distribution theory as it is presently implemented: first, the process of first-year to multiyear ridge consolidation is ignored; and second, the observed preferential melt of thick ridged ice is not reproduced.

Sea-level feedback lowers projections of future Antarctic Ice-Sheet mass loss

PubMed Central

Gomez, Natalya; Pollard, David; Holland, David

2015-01-01

The stability of marine sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) in a warming climate has been identified as the largest source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise. Sea-level fall near the grounding line of a retreating marine ice sheet has a stabilizing influence on the ice sheets, and previous studies have established the importance of this feedback on ice age AIS evolution. Here we use a coupled ice sheet–sea-level model to investigate the impact of the feedback mechanism on future AIS retreat over centennial and millennial timescales for a range of emission scenarios. We show that the combination of bedrock uplift and sea-surface drop associated with ice-sheet retreat significantly reduces AIS mass loss relative to a simulation without these effects included. Sensitivity analyses show that the stabilization tends to be greatest for lower emission scenarios and Earth models characterized by a thin elastic lithosphere and low-viscosity upper mantle, as is the case for West Antarctica. PMID:26554381

Satellite Observations of Antarctic Sea Ice Thickness and Volume

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kurtz, Nathan; Markus, Thorsten

2012-01-01

We utilize satellite laser altimetry data from ICESat combined with passive microwave measurements to analyze basin-wide changes in Antarctic sea ice thickness and volume over a 5 year period from 2003-2008. Sea ice thickness exhibits a small negative trend while area increases in the summer and fall balanced losses in thickness leading to small overall volume changes. Using a five year time-series, we show that only small ice thickness changes of less than -0.03 m/yr and volume changes of -266 cu km/yr and 160 cu km/yr occurred for the spring and summer periods, respectively. The calculated thickness and volume trends are small compared to the observational time period and interannual variability which masks the determination of long-term trend or cyclical variability in the sea ice cover. These results are in stark contrast to the much greater observed losses in Arctic sea ice volume and illustrate the different hemispheric changes of the polar sea ice covers in recent years.

Recent Ice Loss from the Fleming and Other Glaciers, Wordie Bay, West Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rignot, E.; Casassa, G.; Gogineni, S.; Kanagaratnam, P.; Krabill, W.; Pritchard, H.; Rivera, A.; Thomas, R.; Turner, J.; Vaughan, D.

2005-01-01

Satellite radar interferometry data from 1995 to 2004, and airborne ice thickness data from 2002, reveal that the glaciers flowing into former Wordie Ice Shelf, West Antarctic Peninsula, discharge 6.8 +/- 0.3 km(exp 3)/yr of ice, which is 84 +/- 30 percent larger than a snow accumulation of 3.7 +/- 0.8 km(exp 3)/yr over a 6,300 km(exp 2) drainage basin. Airborne and ICESat laser altimetry elevation data reveal glacier thinning at rates up to 2 m/yr. Fifty km from its ice front, Fleming Glacier flows 50 percent faster than it did in 1974 prior to the main collapse of Wordie Ice Shelf. We conclude that the glaciers accelerated following ice shelf removal, and have been thinning and losing mass to the ocean over the last decade. This and other observations suggest that the mass loss from the northern part of the Peninsula is not negligible at present.

Rapid Holocene thinning of an East Antarctic outlet glacier driven by marine ice sheet instability

PubMed Central

Jones, R. S.; Mackintosh, A. N.; Norton, K. P.; Golledge, N. R.; Fogwill, C. J.; Kubik, P. W.; Christl, M.; Greenwood, S. L.

2015-01-01

Outlet glaciers grounded on a bed that deepens inland and extends below sea level are potentially vulnerable to ‘marine ice sheet instability'. This instability, which may lead to runaway ice loss, has been simulated in models, but its consequences have not been directly observed in geological records. Here we provide new surface-exposure ages from an outlet of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that reveal rapid glacier thinning occurred approximately 7,000 years ago, in the absence of large environmental changes. Glacier thinning persisted for more than two and a half centuries, resulting in hundreds of metres of ice loss. Numerical simulations indicate that ice surface drawdown accelerated when the otherwise steadily retreating glacier encountered a bedrock trough. Together, the geological reconstruction and numerical simulations suggest that centennial-scale glacier thinning arose from unstable grounding line retreat. Capturing these instability processes in ice sheet models is important for predicting Antarctica's future contribution to sea level change. PMID:26608558

Changes in summer sea ice, albedo, and portioning of surface solar radiation in the Pacific sector of Arctic Ocean during 1982-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Ruibo; Tian-Kunze, Xiangshan; Leppäranta, Matti; Wang, Jia; Kaleschke, Lars; Zhang, Zhanhai

2016-08-01

SSM/I sea ice concentration and CLARA black-sky composite albedo were used to estimate sea ice albedo in the region 70°N-82°N, 130°W-180°W. The long-term trends and seasonal evolutions of ice concentration, composite albedo, and ice albedo were then obtained. In July-August 1982-2009, the linear trend of the composite albedo and the ice albedo was -0.069 and -0.046 units per decade, respectively. During 1 June to 19 August, melting of sea ice resulted in an increase of solar heat input to the ice-ocean system by 282 MJ·m-2 from 1982 to 2009. However, because of the counter-balancing effects of the loss of sea ice area and the enhanced ice surface melting, the trend of solar heat input to the ice was insignificant. The summer evolution of ice albedo matched the ice surface melting and ponding well at basin scale. The ice albedo showed a large difference between the multiyear and first-year ice because the latter melted completely by the end of a melt season. At the SHEBA geolocations, a distinct change in the ice albedo has occurred since 2007, because most of the multiyear ice has been replaced by first-year ice. A positive polarity in the Arctic Dipole Anomaly could be partly responsible for the rapid loss of summer ice within the study region in the recent years by bringing warmer air masses from the south and advecting more ice toward the north. Both these effects would enhance ice-albedo feedback.

Ice sheet-ocean interactions and sea level change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heimbach, Patrick

2014-03-01

Mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has increased rapidly since the mid-1990s. Their combined loss now accounts for about one-third of global sea level rise. In Greenland, a growing body of evidence points to the marine margins of these glaciers as the region from which this dynamic response originated. Similarly, ice streams in West Antarctica that feed vast floating ice shelves have exhibited large decadal changes. We review observational evidence and present physical mechanisms that might explain the observed changes, in particular in the context of ice sheet-ocean interactions. Processes involve cover 7 orders of magnitudes of scales, ranging from mm boundary-layer processes to basin-scale coupled atmosphere-ocean variability. We discuss observational needs to fill the gap in our mechanistic understanding.

Greenland ice sheet retreat since the Little Ice Age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beitch, Marci J.

Late 20th century and 21st century satellite imagery of the perimeter of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) provide high resolution observations of the ice sheet margins. Examining changes in ice margin positions over time yield measurements of GrIS area change and rates of margin retreat. However, longer records of ice sheet margin change are needed to establish more accurate predictions of the ice sheet's future response to global conditions. In this study, the trimzone, the area of deglaciated terrain along the ice sheet edge that lacks mature vegetation cover, is used as a marker of the maximum extent of the ice from its most recent major advance during the Little Ice Age. We compile recently acquired Landsat ETM+ scenes covering the perimeter of the GrIS on which we map area loss on land-, lake-, and marine-terminating margins. We measure an area loss of 13,327 +/- 830 km2, which corresponds to 0.8% shrinkage of the ice sheet. This equates to an averaged horizontal retreat of 363 +/- 69 m across the entire GrIS margin. Mapping the areas exposed since the Little Ice Age maximum, circa 1900 C.E., yields a century-scale rate of change. On average the ice sheet lost an area of 120 +/- 16 km 2/yr, or retreated at a rate of 3.3 +/- 0.7 m/yr since the LIA maximum.

Determination of Acreage Thermal Protection Foam Loss From Ice and Foam Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carney, Kelly S.; Lawrence, Charles

2015-01-01

A parametric study was conducted to establish Thermal Protection System (TPS) loss from foam and ice impact conditions similar to what might occur on the Space Launch System. This study was based upon the large amount of testing and analysis that was conducted with both ice and foam debris impacts on TPS acreage foam for the Space Shuttle Project External Tank. Test verified material models and modeling techniques that resulted from Space Shuttle related testing were utilized for this parametric study. Parameters varied include projectile mass, impact velocity and impact angle (5 degree and 10 degree impacts). The amount of TPS acreage foam loss as a result of the various impact conditions is presented.

Evolution of Planetary Ice-Ocean Systems: Effects of Salinity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allu Peddinti, D.; McNamara, A. K.

2015-12-01

Planetary oceanography is enjoying renewed attention thanks to not only the detection of several exoplanetary ocean worlds but also due to the expanding family of ocean worlds within our own star system. Our solar system is now believed to host about nine ocean worlds including Earth, some dwarf planets and few moons of Jupiter and Saturn. Amongst them, Europa, like Earth is thought to have an ice Ih-liquid water system. However, the thickness of the Europan ice-ocean system is much larger than that of the Earth. The evolution of this system would determine the individual thicknesses of the ice shell and the ocean. In turn, these thicknesses can alter the course of evolution of the system. In a pure H2O system, the thickness of the ice shell would govern if heat loss occurs entirely by conduction or if the shell begins to convect as it attains a threshold thickness. This switch between conduction-convection regimes could determine the longevity of the subsurface ocean and hence define the astrobiological potential of the planetary body at any given time. In reality, however, the system is not pure water ice. The detected induced magnetic field infers a saline ocean layer. Salts are expected to act as an anti-freeze allowing a subsurface ocean to persist over long periods but the amount of salts would determine the extent of that effect. In our current study, we use geodynamic models to examine the effect of salinity on the evolution of ice-ocean system. An initial ocean with different salinities is allowed to evolve. The effect of salinity on thickness of the two layers at any time is examined. We also track how salinity controls the switch between conductive-convective modes. The study shows that for a given time period, larger salinities can maintain a thick vigorously convecting ocean while the smaller salinities behave similar to a pure H2O system leading to a thick convecting ice-shell. A range of salinities identified can potentially predict the current state and possibly the intermediate states of the ice-ocean system as it evolved over time. This could help constrain the endogenic contribution of salts to the surface chemistry.

Improvement of basal conditions knowledge in Antarctica using data assimilation methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosbeux, C.; Gillet-Chaulet, F.; Gagliardini, O.

2017-12-01

The current global warming seems to have direct consequences on ice-sheet mass loss. Unfortunately, as highlighted in the last IPCC report, current ice-sheets models face several difficulties in assessing the future evolution of the dynamics of ice sheets for the next century. Indeed, projections are still plagued with high uncertainties partially due to the poor representation of occurring physical processes, but also due to the poor initialisation of ice flow models. More specifically, simulations are very sensitive to initial parameters such as the basal friction between ice-sheet and bedrock and the bedrock topography which are still badly known because of a lack of direct observations or large uncertainty on measurements. Improving the knowledge of these two parameters in Greenland and Antarctica is therefore a prerequisite for making reliable projections. Data assimilation methods have been developed in order to overcome this problem such as the Bayesian approach of Pralong and Gudmundsson (2009) or the adjoint method tested by Goldberg and Heimbach (2013) and Perego et al. (2014). The present work is based on two different assimilation algorithms to better constrain both basal drag and bedrock elevation parameters. The first algorithm is entirely based on the adjoint method while the second one uses an iterative method coupling inversion of basal friction based on an adjoint method and through an inversion of bedrock topography using a nudging method. Both algorithms have been implemented in the finite element ice sheet and ice flow model Elmer/Ice and have been tested in a twin experiment showing a clear improvement of both parameters knowledge (Mosbeux et al., 2016). Here, the methods are applied to a real 3D case in East Antarctica and with an ensemble method approach. The application of both algorithms reduces the uncertainty on basal conditions, for instance by providing more details to the basal geometry when compared to usual DEM. Moreover, as in the previous experiment, the reconstruction of both basal elevation and basal friction significantly decreases ice flux divergence anomalies when compared to classical methods where only the friction is inverted. Finally, we conduct prognostic simulations, allowing to assess the impact of the different initialisations obtained with the ensemble method.

Controls on Arctic sea ice from first-year and multi-year survival rates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunke, Jes

2009-01-01

The recent decrease in Arctic sea ice cover has transpired with a significant loss of multi year ice. The transition to an Arctic that is populated by thinner first year sea ice has important implications for future trends in area and volume. Here we develop a reduced model for Arctic sea ice with which we investigate how the survivability of first year and multi year ice control the mean state, variability, and trends in ice area and volume.

Creating future fit between ice and society: The institutionalization of a refuge in the Arctic to preserve sea ice system services in a changing North

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovecraft, A. L.; Meek, C. L.

2010-12-01

The Arctic sea ice system can be holistically characterized as a social-ecological system that provides not only vital geophysical and biological services to climate and oceans but also provisioning services to people and industry. These services are under threat from the three major interconnected global forces of increasing traffic for shipping, security, and tourism; contaminant accumulation primarily from distant, but also related to some local marine activities, industrial production; and climatic changes, especially the warming at the poles which is diminishing the earth’s cryosphere. As the Arctic becomes more open due to sea ice loss the current strategies to preserve individual species or sea ice system functions may become obsolete in the next several decades. Concurrent to this will be the rise of traffic in areas currently not passable and an increase in exploitation of natural resources (biological and mineral) further north. This expansion of human activity does not have a suite of institutions in place that comprehensively address a future open Arctic Ocean and the coasts of the circumpolar north. Consequently, as the amount of space that can preserve a diversity of sea ice system services shrinks and the use of that space becomes crowded with interests, governments across scales need to be able to plan to balance the increase in use with preservation of services valuable both in terms of regulating and supporting planetary processes and the cultural and provisioning services more immediately tied to human flourishing. In short, it is a race between stressors and human capacity to manage them through rules minimizing their direct impact on the ice or preventing them from entering an eventual “ice shed” boundaries of a minimum summer sea ice cover. This poster explores the potential for the creation of a system of governance that would provide a refuge based on the projected summer sea ice to remain in the Arctic even as the climate shifts in the coming decades. The authors propose the institutionalization of rule sets based on adaptive governance principles which take advantage of several sets of international and national or subnational arrangements for protecting places. Respectively these could include World Heritage Sites, Marine Protected Areas, and state or provincial level management. However, current governance systems may not be adequately linked across interrelated services and the people who depend on them for their livelihoods. We propose an adaptive cross-scalar system of monitoring and governance focused on the sea ice services tied to marine and coastal areas. The design would account for the special properties of sea ice (e.g. creating uniform legal categories tied to ice rather than either land or sea) so that the system can continue to provide diverse services in a holistic fashion rather than piecemeal in isolated locations. Hence the need for a continuous refuge governing a singular “ice shed” in spite of national boundaries.

Arctic sea ice loss and recent extreme cold winter in Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mori, Masato; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Kimoto, Masahide

2014-05-01

Extreme cold winter over the Eurasia has occurred more frequently in recent years. Observational evidence in recent studies shows that the wintertime cold anomalies over the Eurasia are associated with decline of Arctic sea ice in preceding autumn to winter season. However, the tropical and/or mid-latitude sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have great influence on the mid- and high-latitude atmospheric variability, it is difficult to isolate completely the impacts of sea ice change from observational data. In this study, we examine possible linkage between the Arctic sea ice loss and the extreme cold winter over the Eurasia using a state-of-the-art MIROC4 (T106L56) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to assess the pure atmospheric responses to sea ice reduction. We perform two sets of experiments with different realistic sea ice boundary conditions calculated by composite of observed sea ice concentration; one is reduced sea ice extent case (referred to as LICE run) and another is enhanced case (HICE run). In both experiments, the model is integrated 6-month from September to February with 100-member ensemble under the climatological SST boundary condition. The difference in ensemble mean of each experiment (LICE minus HICE) shows cold anomalies over the Eurasia in winter and its spatial pattern is very similar to corresponding observation, though the magnitude is smaller than observation. This result indicates that a part of observed cold anomaly can be attributed to the Arctic sea ice loss. We would like to introduce more important results and mechanisms in detail in my presentation.

Using the glacial geomorphology of palaeo-ice streams to understand mechanisms of ice sheet collapse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stokes, Chris R.; Margold, Martin; Clark, Chris; Tarasov, Lev

2017-04-01

Processes which bring about ice sheet deglaciation are critical to our understanding of glacial-interglacial cycles and ice sheet sensitivity to climate change. The precise mechanisms of deglaciation are also relevant to our understanding of modern-day ice sheet stability and concerns over global sea level rise. Mass loss from ice sheets can be broadly partitioned between melting and a 'dynamic' component whereby rapidly-flowing ice streams/outlet glaciers transfer ice from the interior to the oceans. Surface and basal melting (e.g. of ice shelves) are closely linked to atmospheric and oceanic conditions, but the mechanisms that drive dynamic changes in ice stream discharge are more complex, which generates much larger uncertainties about their future contribution to ice sheet mass loss and sea level rise. A major problem is that observations of modern-day ice streams typically span just a few decades and, at the ice-sheet scale, it is unclear how the entire drainage network of ice streams evolves during deglaciation. A key question is whether ice streams might increase and sustain rates of mass loss over centuries or millennia, beyond those expected for a given ocean-climate forcing. To address this issue, numerous workers have sought to understand ice stream dynamics over longer time-scales using their glacial geomorphology in the palaeo-record. Indeed, our understanding of their geomorphology has grown rapidly in the last three decades, from almost complete ignorance to a detailed knowledge of their geomorphological products. Building on this body of work, this paper uses the glacial geomorphology of 117 ice streams in the North American Laurentide Ice Sheet to reconstruct their activity during its deglaciation ( 22,000 to 7,000 years ago). Ice stream activity was characterised by high variability in both time and space, with ice streams switching on and off in different locations. During deglaciation, we find that their overall number decreased, they occupied a progressively smaller percentage of the ice sheet perimeter, and their total discharge decreased. Underlying geology and topography clearly influenced ice stream activity, but - at the ice sheet scale - their drainage network adjusted and was strongly linked to changes in ice sheet volume. It is unclear whether these findings are directly translatable to modern ice sheets but, contrary to the view that sees ice streams as unstable entities that can draw-down large sectors of an ice sheet and accelerate its demise, we conclude that they reduced in effectiveness during deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, with final deglaciation accomplished most effectively by surface melting. This raises some interesting questions about the source and nature of major meltwater pulses and iceberg discharge events in the sea-level record.

Earth Observations taken by Expedition 38 crewmember

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-02-14

ISS038-E-047324 (13 Feb. 2014) --- This grand panorama of the Southern Patagonia Icefield (center) was imaged by an Expedition 38 crew member on the International Space Station on one of the rare clear days in the southern Andes Mountains. With an area of 13,000 square kilometers, the icefield is the largest temperate ice sheet in the Southern Hemisphere. Storms that swirl into the region from the southern Pacific Ocean (top) bring rain and snow (equivalent to a total of 2-11 meters of rainfall per year) resulting in the buildup of the ice sheet shown here (center). During the ice ages the glaciers were far larger. Geologists now know that ice tongues extended far onto the plains in the foreground, completely filling the great Patagonian lakes on repeated occasions. Similarly, ice tongues extended into the dense network of fjords (arms of the sea) on the Pacific side of the icefield. Ice tongues today appear tiny compared to the view that an "ice age" astronaut would have seen. A study of the surface topography of sixty-three glaciers, based on Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data, compared data from 2000 to data from studies going back about 30 years (1968-1975). Many glacier tongues showed significant annual "retreat" of their ice fronts, a familiar signal of climate change. The study also revealed that the almost invisible loss by glacier thinning is far more significant in explaining ice loss. The researchers concluded that volume loss by frontal collapse is 4-10 times smaller than that caused by thinning. Scaled over the entire icefield, including frontal loss (so-called calving when ice masses collapse into the lakes), it was calculated that 13.5 cubic kilometers of ice was lost each year over the study period. This number becomes more meaningful compared with the rate measured in the last five years of the study (1995-2000), when the rate increased almost threefold, averaging 38.7 cubic kilometers per year. Extrapolating results from the low altitude glacier tongues implies that the high plateau ice on the spine of the Andes is thinning as well. In the decade since this study the often-imaged Upsala Glacier has retreated a further three kilometers, as shown recently in images taken by crew members aboard the space station. Glacier Pio X, named for Pope Pius X, is the only large glacier that is growing in length.

Observations of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Volume Loss and Its Impact on Ocean-Atmosphere Energy Exchange and Ice Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kurtz, N. T.; Markus, T.; Farrell, S. L.; Worthen, D. L.; Boisvert, L. N.

2011-01-01

Using recently developed techniques we estimate snow and sea ice thickness distributions for the Arctic basin through the combination of freeboard data from the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) and a snow depth model. These data are used with meteorological data and a thermodynamic sea ice model to calculate ocean-atmosphere heat exchange and ice volume production during the 2003-2008 fall and winter seasons. The calculated heat fluxes and ice growth rates are in agreement with previous observations over multiyear ice. In this study, we calculate heat fluxes and ice growth rates for the full distribution of ice thicknesses covering the Arctic basin and determine the impact of ice thickness change on the calculated values. Thinning of the sea ice is observed which greatly increases the 2005-2007 fall period ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes compared to those observed in 2003. Although there was also a decline in sea ice thickness for the winter periods, the winter time heat flux was found to be less impacted by the observed changes in ice thickness. A large increase in the net Arctic ocean-atmosphere heat output is also observed in the fall periods due to changes in the areal coverage of sea ice. The anomalously low sea ice coverage in 2007 led to a net ocean-atmosphere heat output approximately 3 times greater than was observed in previous years and suggests that sea ice losses are now playing a role in increasing surface air temperatures in the Arctic.

The influence of regional Arctic sea-ice decline on stratospheric and tropospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenna, Christine; Bracegirdle, Thomas; Shuckburgh, Emily; Haynes, Peter

2016-04-01

Arctic sea-ice extent has rapidly declined over the past few decades, and most climate models project a continuation of this trend during the 21st century in response to greenhouse gas forcing. A number of recent studies have shown that this sea-ice loss induces vertically propagating Rossby waves, which weaken the stratospheric polar vortex and increase the frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). SSWs have been shown to increase the probability of a negative NAO in the following weeks, thereby driving anomalous weather conditions over Europe and other mid-latitude regions. In contrast, other studies have shown that Arctic sea-ice loss strengthens the polar vortex, increasing the probability of a positive NAO. Sun et al. (2015) suggest these conflicting results may be due to the region of sea-ice loss considered. They find that if only regions within the Arctic Circle are considered in sea-ice projections, the polar vortex weakens; if only regions outwith the Arctic Circle are considered, the polar vortex strengthens. This is because the anomalous Rossby waves forced in the former/latter scenario constructively/destructively interfere with climatological Rossby waves, thus enhancing/suppressing upward wave propagation. In this study, we investigate whether Sun et al.'s results are robust to a different model. We also divide the regions of sea-ice loss they considered into further sub-regions, in order to examine the regional differences in more detail. We do this by using the intermediate complexity climate model, IGCM4, which has a well resolved stratosphere and does a good job of representing stratospheric processes. Several simulations are run in atmosphere only mode, where one is a control experiment and the others are perturbation experiments. In the control run annually repeating historical mean surface conditions are imposed at the lower boundary, whereas in each perturbation run the model is forced by SST perturbations imposed in a specific region (one perturbation experiment combines all regions). These regions correspond to sea-ice loss hotspots such as the Barents-Kara Seas and the Bering Sea. The differences between the control and perturbation runs yields the effects of the imposed sea-ice loss on the polar vortex. To detect and count SSWs for each run, we use the World Meteorological Organisation's definition of an SSW (a reversal in zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa and 60° N, and a reversal in zonal mean meridional temperature gradient at 10 hPa between 60° N and 90° N). The poster will present and discuss the initial results of this study. Implications of the results for future change in the lower latitude mid-troposphere will be discussed. References Sun, L., C. Deser, and R. A. Tomas, 2015: Mechanisms of Stratospheric and Tropospheric Circulation Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss. J. Climate, 28, 7824-7845, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0169.1.

The Broken Belt: Meteorite Concentrations on Stranded Ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harvey, R. P.

2003-01-01

Since the first Antarctic meteorite concentrations were discovered more than 25 years ago, many theories regarding the role of iceflow in the production of meteorite concentrations have been put forward, and most agree on the basic principles. These models suggest that as the East Antarctic icesheet flows toward the margins of the continent, meteorites randomly located within the volume of ice are transported toward the icesheet margin. Where mountains or subsurface obstructions block glacial flow, diversion of ice around or over an obstruction reduces horizontal ice movement rates adjacent to the barriers and creates a vertical (upward) component of movement. If local mechanisms for ice loss (ablation) exist at such sites, an equilibrium surface will develop according to the balance between ice supply and loss, and the cargo of meteorites is exhumed on a blue ice surface. The result is a conceptual conveyor belt bringing meteorite-bearing volumes of ice from the interior of the continent to stagnant or slowmoving surfaces where ice is then lost and a precious cargo is left as a lag deposit. Cassidy et al. provides an excellent overview of how this model has been adapted to several Antarctic stranding surfaces.

Surface melt effects on Cryosat-2 elevation retrievals in the ablation zone of the Greenland ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slater, T.; McMillan, M.; Shepherd, A.; Leeson, A.; Cornford, S. L.; Hogg, A.; Gilbert, L.; Muir, A. S.; Briggs, K.

2017-12-01

Over the past two decades, there has been an acceleration in the rate of mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet. This acceleration is, in part, attributed to an increasingly negative surface mass balance (SMB), linked to increasing melt water runoff rates due to enhanced surface melting. Understanding the past, present and future evolution in surface melting is central to ongoing monitoring of ice sheet mass balance and, in turn, to building realistic future projections. Currently, regional climate models are commonly used for this purpose, because direct in-situ observations are spatially and temporally sparse due to the logistics and resources required to collect such data. In particular, modelled SMB is used to estimate the extent and magnitude of surface melting, which influences (1) many geodetic mass balance estimates, and (2) snowpack microwave scattering properties. The latter is poorly understood and introduces uncertainty into radar altimeter estimates of ice sheet evolution. Here, we investigate the changes in CryoSat-2 waveforms and elevation measurements caused by the onset of surface melt in the summer months over the ablation zone of the Greenland ice sheet. Specifically, we use CryoSat-2 SARIn mode data acquired between 2011 and 2016, to characterise the effect of high variability in surface melt during this period, and to assess the associated impact on estimates of ice mass balance.

Pressure-Induced Melting of Confined Ice

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The classic regelation experiment of Thomson in the 1850s deals with cutting an ice cube, followed by refreezing. The cutting was attributed to pressure-induced melting but has been challenged continuously, and only lately consensus emerged by understanding that compression shortens the O:H nonbond and lengthens the H–O bond simultaneously. This H–O elongation leads to energy loss and lowers the melting point. The hot debate survived well over 150 years, mainly due to a poorly defined heat exchange with the environment in the experiment. In our current experiment, we achieved thermal isolation from the environment and studied the fully reversible ice–liquid water transition for water confined between graphene and muscovite mica. We observe a transition from two-dimensional (2D) ice into a quasi-liquid phase by applying a pressure exerted by an atomic force microscopy tip. At room temperature, the critical pressure amounts to about 6 GPa. The transition is completely reversible: refreezing occurs when the applied pressure is lifted. The critical pressure to melt the 2D ice decreases with temperature, and we measured the phase coexistence line between 293 and 333 K. From a Clausius–Clapeyron analysis, we determine the latent heat of fusion of two-dimensional ice at 0.15 eV/molecule, being twice as large as that of bulk ice. PMID:29112376

Investigations of the Hydrologic Cycle in the Arctic Climate System Using Water Isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopec, Ben Gordon

Warming has caused widespread changes to the Arctic hydrologic cycle, indicated by sea ice reductions, the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) mass loss, and permafrost degradation. Understanding Arctic hydrologic processes is essential for quantifying hydrological responses to climate change. A valuable tool to study these responses is the hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios of water. Studies presented here aim to both innovatively apply water isotopes with existing understanding, and gain new knowledge in isotope systematics. I present several studies here. First, I show that Arctic precipitation increases with enhanced evaporation due to sea ice reduction; each 100,000 km2 loss in sea ice area increases the fraction of Arctic sourced moisture in total precipitation by 11 to 18%. Second, I argue that vapor sublimated from the GIS significantly contributes to summer precipitation at Summit, Greenland. This conclusion is first supported by isotopic variations in the daily precipitation collected at Summit for three years, and then further verified by 30 annual isotopic cycles in a shallow ice core. The result is not only important for quantifying the current ice sheet mass balance, but also for inferences of paleoclimate from ice cores. Third, I demonstrate that local scale atmospheric circulation in the glacier-free strip of West Greenland is dominated by convergence of dry glacial air masses from the east and moist marine air masses from the west. The dynamics of this convergence are affected by both regional radiation balance differences and broader circulation patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation. Humidity variations associated with these air masses control local precipitation and lake evaporation. Finally, along the east-west moisture gradient in West Greenland, lake evaporation also exhibits systematic changes in rate and isotopic enrichment, a result that is important for lake sediment core research. I have made advances in understanding water isotope systematics, mostly related to deuterium excess. In particular, variations in the deltaD-delta 18O slope, both for meteoric water and for lake water, are shown to contain interpretable environmental information. I also show that simple equilibrium Rayleigh distillation alters deuterium excess, an effect that was underappreciated in previous work.

Challenges for understanding Antarctic surface hydrology and ice-shelf stability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kingslake, J.; Bell, R. E.; Banwell, A. F.; Boghosian, A.; Spergel, J.; Trusel, L. D.

2017-12-01

It is widely hypothesized that surface meltwater can contribute to ice mass loss in Antarctica through its impact on ice-shelf stability. Meltwater potentially expedites ice-shelf calving by flowing into and enlarging existing crevasses, and could even trigger ice-shelf disintegration via stresses generated by melt ponds. When ice shelves collapse, the adjacent grounded ice accelerates and thins, which contributes to sea-level rise. How these mechanisms mediate the interactions between the atmosphere, the ocean and the ice sheet is the subject of long-standing research efforts. The drainage of water across the surface of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and its ice shelves is beginning to be recognized as another important aspect of the system. Recent studies have revealed that surface meltwater drainage is more widespread than previously thought and that surface hydrological systems in Antarctica may expand and proliferate this century. Contrasting hypotheses regarding the impact of the proliferation of drainage systems on ice-shelf stability have emerged. Surface drainage could deliver meltwater to vulnerable area or export meltwater from ice shelves entirely. Which behavior dominates may have a large impact on the future response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to atmospheric warming. We will discuss these recent discoveries and hypotheses, as well as new detailed studies of specific areas where hydrological systems are well developed, such as Amery and Nimrod Ice Shelves. We will highlight analogies that can be drawn with Greenlandic (near-)surface hydrology and, crucially, where hydrological systems on the two ice sheets are very different, leading to potentially important gaps in our understanding. Finally, we will look ahead to the key questions that we argue will need to be if we are to determine the role Antarctic surface hydrology could play in the future of the ice sheet. These include: Where does meltwater pond today and how will this change this century? What coupled glaciological-hydrological dynamics control how drainage systems will change as melt rates increase this century? How do we incorporate surface hydrology into ice-sheet models? While we may be currently unable to answer these and related questions, we aim to start the discussion on how the community can move towards answering them in the future.

Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeWeaver, Eric T.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Tremblay, L.-Bruno

This volume addresses the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice, placing recent sea ice decline in the context of past observations, climate model simulations and projections, and simple models of the climate sensitivity of sea ice. Highlights of the work presented here include • An appraisal of the role played by wind forcing in driving the decline; • A reconstruction of Arctic sea ice conditions prior to human observations, based on proxy data from sediments; • A modeling approach for assessing the impact of sea ice decline on polar bears, used as input to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act; • Contrasting studies on the existence of a "tipping point," beyond which Arctic sea ice decline will become (or has already become) irreversible, including an examination of the role of the small ice cap instability in global warming simulations; • A significant summertime atmospheric response to sea ice reduction in an atmospheric general circulation model, suggesting a positive feedback and the potential for short-term climate prediction. The book will be of interest to researchers attempting to understand the recent behavior of Arctic sea ice, model projections of future sea ice loss, and the consequences of sea ice loss for the natural and human systems of the Arctic.

Improvements in Ice-Sheet Sea-Level Projections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, Andrew; Nowicki, Sophie

2017-01-01

Ice losses from Antarctica and Greenland are the largest uncertainty in sea-level projections. Nevertheless, improvements in ice-sheet models over recent decades have led to closer agreement with satellite observations, keeping track with their increasing contribution to global sea-level rise.

Arctic marine mammal population status, sea ice habitat loss, and conservation recommendations for the 21st century.

PubMed

Laidre, Kristin L; Stern, Harry; Kovacs, Kit M; Lowry, Lloyd; Moore, Sue E; Regehr, Eric V; Ferguson, Steven H; Wiig, Øystein; Boveng, Peter; Angliss, Robyn P; Born, Erik W; Litovka, Dennis; Quakenbush, Lori; Lydersen, Christian; Vongraven, Dag; Ugarte, Fernando

2015-06-01

Arctic marine mammals (AMMs) are icons of climate change, largely because of their close association with sea ice. However, neither a circumpolar assessment of AMM status nor a standardized metric of sea ice habitat change is available. We summarized available data on abundance and trend for each AMM species and recognized subpopulation. We also examined species diversity, the extent of human use, and temporal trends in sea ice habitat for 12 regions of the Arctic by calculating the dates of spring sea ice retreat and fall sea ice advance from satellite data (1979-2013). Estimates of AMM abundance varied greatly in quality, and few studies were long enough for trend analysis. Of the AMM subpopulations, 78% (61 of 78) are legally harvested for subsistence purposes. Changes in sea ice phenology have been profound. In all regions except the Bering Sea, the duration of the summer (i.e., reduced ice) period increased by 5-10 weeks and by >20 weeks in the Barents Sea between 1979 and 2013. In light of generally poor data, the importance of human use, and forecasted environmental changes in the 21st century, we recommend the following for effective AMM conservation: maintain and improve comanagement by local, federal, and international partners; recognize spatial and temporal variability in AMM subpopulation response to climate change; implement monitoring programs with clear goals; mitigate cumulative impacts of increased human activity; and recognize the limits of current protected species legislation. © 2015 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

3D full-Stokes modeling of the grounding line dynamics of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, H.; Rignot, E. J.; Morlighem, M.; Seroussi, H. L.

2016-12-01

Thwaites Glacier (TG) is the broadest and second largest ice stream in the West Antarctica. Satellite observations have revealed rapid grounding line retreat and mass loss of this glacier in the past few decades, which has been attributed to the enhanced basal melting in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. With a retrograde bed configuration, TG is on the verge of collapse according to the marine ice sheet instability theory. Here, we use the UCI/JPL Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) to simulate the grounding line position of TG to determine its stability, rate of retreat and sensitivity to enhanced basal melting using a three-dimensional full-Stokes numerical model. Simulations with simplified models (Higher Order (HO), and Shelfy-Stream Approximation (SSA)) are also conducted for comparison. We first validate our full Stokes model by conducting MISMIP3D experiments. Then we applied the model to TG using new bed elevation dataset combining IceBridge (OIB) gravity data, OIB ice thickness, ice flow vectors from interferometry and a mass conservation method at 450 m spacing. Basal friction coefficient and ice rheology of floating ice are inferred to match observed surface velocity. We find that the grounding line is capable of retreating at rate of 1km/yr under current forcing and that the glacier's sensitivity to melt is higher in the Stokes model than HO or SSA, which means that projections using SSA or HO might underestimate the future rate of retreat of the glacier. This work has been performed at UC Irvine and Caltech's Jet Propulsion Laboratory under a contract with NASA's Cryospheric Science Program.

Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogawa, Fumiaki; Keenlyside, Noel; Gao, Yongqi; Koenigk, Torben; Yang, Shuting; Suo, Lingling; Wang, Tao; Gastineau, Guillaume; Nakamura, Tetsu; Cheung, Ho Nam; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Ukita, Jinro; Semenov, Vladimir

2018-04-01

Wide disagreement among individual modeling studies has contributed to a debate on the role of recent sea ice loss in the Arctic amplification of global warming and the Siberian wintertime cooling trend. We perform coordinated experiments with six atmospheric general circulation models forced by the observed and climatological daily sea ice concentration and sea surface temperature. The results indicate that the impact of the recent sea ice decline is rather limited to the high-latitude lower troposphere in winter, and the sea ice changes do not significantly lead to colder winters over Siberia. The observed wintertime Siberian temperature and corresponding circulation trends are reproduced in a small number of ensemble members but not by the multimodel ensemble mean, suggesting that atmospheric internal dynamics could have played a major role in the observed trends.

Study of ice cluster impacts on amorphous silica using the ReaxFF reactive force field molecular dynamics simulation method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rahnamoun, A.; Duin, A. C. T. van

We study the dynamics of the collisions between amorphous silica structures and amorphous and crystal ice clusters with impact velocities of 1 km/s, 4 km/s, and 7 km/s using the ReaxFF reactive molecular dynamics simulation method. The initial ice clusters consist of 150 water molecules for the amorphous ice cluster and 128 water molecules for the crystal ice cluster. The ice clusters are collided on the surface of amorphous fully oxidized and suboxide silica. These simulations show that at 1 km/s impact velocities, all the ice clusters accumulate on the surface and at 4 km/s and 7 km/s impact velocities, some of the ice cluster moleculesmore » bounce back from the surface. At 4 km/s and 7 km/s impact velocities, few of the water molecules dissociations are observed. The effect of the second ice cluster impacts on the surfaces which are fully covered with ice, on the mass loss/accumulation is studied. These studies show that at 1 km/s impacts, the entire ice cluster accumulates on the surface at both first and second ice impacts. At higher impact velocities, some ice molecules which after the first ice impacts have been attached to the surface will separate from the surface after the second ice impacts at 7 km/s impact velocity. For the 4 km/s ice cluster impact, ice accumulation is observed for the crystal ice cluster impacts and ice separation is observed for the amorphous ice impacts. Observing the temperatures of the ice clusters during the collisions indicates that the possibility of electron excitement at impact velocities less than 10 km/s is minimal and ReaxFF reactive molecular dynamics simulation can predict the chemistry of these hypervelocity impacts. However, at impact velocities close to 10 km/s the average temperature of the impacting ice clusters increase to about 2000 K, with individual molecules occasionally reaching temperatures of over 8000 K and thus it will be prudent to consider the concept of electron excitation at these higher impact velocities, which goes beyond the current ReaxFF ability.« less

Linking atmospheric synoptic transport, cloud phase, surface energy fluxes, and sea-ice growth: observations of midwinter SHEBA conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persson, P. Ola G.; Shupe, Matthew D.; Perovich, Don; Solomon, Amy

2017-08-01

Observations from the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) project are used to describe a sequence of events linking midwinter long-range advection of atmospheric heat and moisture into the Arctic Basin, formation of supercooled liquid water clouds, enhancement of net surface energy fluxes through increased downwelling longwave radiation, and reduction in near-surface conductive heat flux loss due to a warming of the surface, thereby leading to a reduction in sea-ice bottom growth. The analyses provide details of two events during Jan. 1-12, 1998, one entering the Arctic through Fram Strait and the other from northeast Siberia; winter statistics extend the results. Both deep, precipitating frontal clouds and post-frontal stratocumulus clouds impact the surface radiation and energy budget. Cloud liquid water, occurring preferentially in stratocumulus clouds extending into the base of the inversion, provides the strongest impact on surface radiation and hence modulates the surface forcing, as found previously. The observations suggest a minimum water vapor threshold, likely case dependent, for producing liquid water clouds. Through responses to the radiative forcing and surface warming, this cloud liquid water also modulates the turbulent and conductive heat fluxes, and produces a thermal wave penetrating into the sea ice. About 20-33 % of the observed variations of bottom ice growth can be directly linked to variations in surface conductive heat flux, with retarded ice growth occurring several days after these moisture plumes reduce the surface conductive heat flux. This sequence of events modulate pack-ice wintertime environmental conditions and total ice growth, and has implications for the annual sea-ice evolution, especially for the current conditions of extensive thinner ice.

Modelling present-day basal melt rates for Antarctic ice shelves using a parametrization of buoyant meltwater plumes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazeroms, Werner M. J.; Jenkins, Adrian; Hilmar Gudmundsson, G.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

2018-01-01

Basal melting below ice shelves is a major factor in mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which can contribute significantly to possible future sea-level rise. Therefore, it is important to have an adequate description of the basal melt rates for use in ice-dynamical models. Most current ice models use rather simple parametrizations based on the local balance of heat between ice and ocean. In this work, however, we use a recently derived parametrization of the melt rates based on a buoyant meltwater plume travelling upward beneath an ice shelf. This plume parametrization combines a non-linear ocean temperature sensitivity with an inherent geometry dependence, which is mainly described by the grounding-line depth and the local slope of the ice-shelf base. For the first time, this type of parametrization is evaluated on a two-dimensional grid covering the entire Antarctic continent. In order to apply the essentially one-dimensional parametrization to realistic ice-shelf geometries, we present an algorithm that determines effective values for the grounding-line depth and basal slope in any point beneath an ice shelf. Furthermore, since detailed knowledge of temperatures and circulation patterns in the ice-shelf cavities is sparse or absent, we construct an effective ocean temperature field from observational data with the purpose of matching (area-averaged) melt rates from the model with observed present-day melt rates. Our results qualitatively replicate large-scale observed features in basal melt rates around Antarctica, not only in terms of average values, but also in terms of the spatial pattern, with high melt rates typically occurring near the grounding line. The plume parametrization and the effective temperature field presented here are therefore promising tools for future simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet requiring a more realistic oceanic forcing.

New marine geophysical and sediment record of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callard, L.; Roberts, D. H.; O'Cofaigh, C.; Lloyd, J. M.; Smith, J. A.; Dorschel, B.

2017-12-01

The NE Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) drains 16% of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and has a sea-level equivalent of 1.1-1.4 m. Stabilised by two floating ice shelves, 79N and Zachariae Isstrom, until recently it has shown little response to increased atmospheric and oceanic warming. However, since 2010 it has experienced an accelerated rate of grounding line retreat ( 4 km) and significant ice shelf loss that indicates that this sector of the GrIS is now responding to current oceanic and/or climatic change and has the potential to be a major contributor to future global sea-level rise. The project `NEGIS', a collaboration between Durham University and AWI, aims to reconstruct the history of the NE Greenland Ice Stream from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to present using both onshore and offshore geological archives to better understand past ice stream response to a warming climate. This contribution presents results and interpretations from an offshore dataset collected on the RV Polarstern, cruises PS100 and PS109 in 2016 and 2017. Gravity and box cores, supplemented by swath bathymetric and sub-bottom profiler data, were acquired and initial core analysis including x-radiographs and MSCL data logging has been performed. Data collection focused principally in the Norske Trough and the area directly in front of the 79N ice shelf, a sub-ice shelf environment as recently as two years ago. On the outer shelf streamlined subglacial bedforms, grounding-zone wedges and moraines as well as overconsolidated subglacial tills, record an extensive ice sheet advance to the shelf edge. On the inner shelf and in front of the 79N ice shelf, deep, glacially-eroded bedrock basins are infilled with stratified sediment. The stratified muds represent deglacial and Holocene glacimarine sedimentation, and capture the recent transition from sub-ice shelf to shelf free conditions. Multiproxy palaeoenvironmental reconstructions, including foraminifera and diatom analysis, and radiocarbon dating are used to constrain the timing and mechanism of retreat.

Fine-Scale Layering of Mars Polar Deposits and Signatures of Ice Content in Nonpolar Material From Multiband SHARAD Data Processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, Bruce A.; Morgan, Gareth A.

2018-02-01

The variation of Shallow Radar (SHARAD) echo strength with frequency reveals material dielectric losses and polar layer properties. Loss tangents for Elysium and Amazonis Planitiae deposits are consistent with volcanic flows and sediments, while the Medusae Fossae Formation, lineated valley fill, and lobate debris aprons have low losses consistent with a major component of water ice. Mantling materials in Arcadia and Utopia Planitiae have higher losses, suggesting they are not dominated by ice over large fractions of their thickness. In Gemina Lingula, there are frequent deviations from a simple dependence of loss on depth. Within reflector packets, the brightest reflectors are often different among the frequency subbands, and there are cases of reflectors that occur in only the high- or low-frequency echoes. Many polar radar reflections must arise from multiple thin interfaces, or single deposits of appropriate thickness, that display resonant scattering behaviors. Reflector properties may be linked to climate-controlled polar dust deposition.

Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence

Treesearch

Steven C. Amstrup; Eric T. DeWeaver; David C. Douglas; Bruce G. Marcot; George M. Durner; Cecilia M. Bitz; David A. Bailey

2010-01-01

On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible...

Slush Fund: The Multiphase Nature of Oceanic Ices and Its Role in Shaping Europa's Icy Shell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buffo, J.; Schmidt, B. E.; Huber, C.

2017-12-01

The role of Europa's ice shell in mediating ocean-surface interaction, constraining potential habitability of the underlying hydrosphere, and dictating the surface morphology of the moon is discussed extensively in the literature, yet the dynamics and characteristics of the shell itself remain largely unconstrained. Some of the largest unknowns arise from underrepresented physics and varying a priori assumptions built into the current ice shell models. Here we modify and apply a validated one-dimensional reactive transport model designed to simulate the formation and evolution of terrestrial sea ice to the Europa environment. The top-down freezing of sea ice due to conductive heat loss to the atmosphere is akin to the formation of the Jovian moon's outer ice shell, albeit on a different temporal and spatial scale. Nevertheless, the microscale physics that govern the formation of sea ice on Earth (heterogenous solidification leading to brine pockets and channels, multiphase reactive transport phenomena, gravity drainage) likely operate in a similar manner at the ice-ocean interface of Europa, dictating the thermal, chemical, and mechanical properties of the ice shell. Simulations of the European ice-ocean interface at different stages during the ice shell's evolution are interpolated to produce vertical profiles of temperature, salinity, solid fraction, and eutectic points throughout the entire shell. Additionally, the model is coupled to the equilibrium chemistry package FREZCHEM to investigate the impact a diverse range of putative European ocean chemistries has on ice shell properties. This method removes the need for a priori assumptions of impurity entrainment rates and ice shell properties, thus providing a first principles constraint on the stratigraphic characteristics of a simulated European ice shell. These insights have the potential to improve existing estimates for the onset of solid state convection, melt lens formation due to eutectic melting, ice shell thickness, and ocean-surface interaction rates. Moreover, this work aims to shed light on the important role microscale physics plays in determining the macroscale properties of icy worlds by highlighting and adapting successful multiphase reactive transport sea ice models utilized in large scale Earth systems science simulations.

Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves.

PubMed

Pritchard, H D; Ligtenberg, S R M; Fricker, H A; Vaughan, D G; van den Broeke, M R; Padman, L

2012-04-25

Accurate prediction of global sea-level rise requires that we understand the cause of recent, widespread and intensifying glacier acceleration along Antarctic ice-sheet coastal margins. Atmospheric and oceanic forcing have the potential to reduce the thickness and extent of floating ice shelves, potentially limiting their ability to buttress the flow of grounded tributary glaciers. Indeed, recent ice-shelf collapse led to retreat and acceleration of several glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula. But the extent and magnitude of ice-shelf thickness change, the underlying causes of such change, and its link to glacier flow rate are so poorly understood that its future impact on the ice sheets cannot yet be predicted. Here we use satellite laser altimetry and modelling of the surface firn layer to reveal the circum-Antarctic pattern of ice-shelf thinning through increased basal melt. We deduce that this increased melt is the primary control of Antarctic ice-sheet loss, through a reduction in buttressing of the adjacent ice sheet leading to accelerated glacier flow. The highest thinning rates occur where warm water at depth can access thick ice shelves via submarine troughs crossing the continental shelf. Wind forcing could explain the dominant patterns of both basal melting and the surface melting and collapse of Antarctic ice shelves, through ocean upwelling in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas, and atmospheric warming on the Antarctic Peninsula. This implies that climate forcing through changing winds influences Antarctic ice-sheet mass balance, and hence global sea level, on annual to decadal timescales.

Polar Bear Conservation Status in Relation to Projected Sea-ice Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regehr, E. V.

2015-12-01

The status of the world's 19 subpopulations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) varies as a function of sea-ice conditions, ecology, management, and other factors. Previous methods to project the response of polar bears to loss of Arctic sea ice—the primary threat to the species—include expert opinion surveys, Bayesian Networks providing qualitative stressor assessments, and subpopulations-specific demographic analyses. Here, we evaluated the global conservation status of polar bears using a data-based sensitivity analysis. First, we estimated generation length for subpopulations with available data (n=11). Second, we developed standardized sea-ice metrics representing habitat availability. Third, we projected global population size under alternative assumptions for relationships between sea ice and subpopulation abundance. Estimated generation length (median = 11.4 years; 95%CI = 9.8 to 13.6) and sea-ice change (median = loss of 1.26 ice-covered days per year; 95%CI = 0.70 to 3.37) varied across subpopulations. Assuming a one-to-one proportional relationship between sea ice and abundance, the median percent change in global population size over three polar bear generations was -30% (95%CI = -35% to -25%). Assuming a linear relationship between sea ice and normalized estimates of subpopulation abundance, median percent change was -4% (95% CI = -62% to +50%) or -43% (95% CI = -76% to -20%), depending on how subpopulations were grouped and how inference was extended from relatively well-studied subpopulations (n=7) to those with little or no data. Our findings suggest the potential for large reductions in polar bear numbers over the next three polar bear generations if sea-ice loss due to climate change continues as forecasted.

Geologic implications and potential hazards of scour depressions on bering shelf, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larsen, M.C.; Nelson, H.; Thor, D.R.

1979-01-01

Flat-bottomed depression 50-150 m in diameter and 60-80 cm deep occur in the floor of Norton Sound, Bering Sea. These large erosional bedforms and associated current ripples are found in areas where sediment grain size is 0.063-0.044 mm (4-4.5 ??), speeds of bottom currents are greatest (20-30 cm/s mean speeds under nonstorm conditions, 70 cm/s during typical storms), circulation of water is constricted by major topographic shoals (kilometers in scale), and small-scale topographic disruptions, such as ice gouges, occur locally on slopes of shoals. These local obstructions on shoals appear to disrupt currents, causing separation of flow and generating eddies that produce large-scale scour. Offshore artificial structures also may disrupt bottom currents in these same areas and have the potential to generate turbulence and induce extensive scour in the area of disrupted flow. The size and character of natural scour depressions in areas of ice gouging suggest that large-scale regions of scour may develop from enlargement of local scour sites around pilings, platforms, or pipelines. Consequently, loss of substrate support for pipelines and gravity structures is possible during frequent autumn storms. ?? 1979 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

The geomorphic impact of catastrophic glacier ice loss in mountain regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, S. G.

2006-12-01

Perhaps the most dramatic manifestation of global warming is catastrophic glacier ice loss in mountain regions. The geomorphic impact of this process was first outlined by Evans and Clague in 1994 and includes mountain slope instability, glacier avalanching, the formation and failure of moraine dammed lakes, and the formation and failure of ice dammed lakes. The present paper is an update of the 1994 publication and has three components. First, a global review of recent glacier-related geomorphic events is undertaken. Second, an analysis of two cases from the Coast Mountains of British Columbia - the 1975 Devastation Glacier landslide and the 1983 Nostetuko Lake outburst resulting from the failure of a moraine dam illustrates the interaction of glacier ice loss and related geomorphic events. At Devastation Glacier, approximately 13 M m3 of altered Quaternary volcanic rock and glacier ice was lost from the west flank of Pylon Peak in the Mount Meager volcanic complex. The events were initiated by a catastrophic rockslide, involving altered Quaternary pyroclastic rocks, which continued down Devastation Creek valley as a high velocity debris avalanche. The overall length of the slide path was 7 km and the vertical height of the path was 1220 m yielding a fahrboschung of 10°. Other large landslides occurred in Devastation Creek valley in 1931 and 1947. Stability analysis of the initial failure shows that the 1975 rockslide was the result of a complex history of glacial erosion, loading and unloading of the toe of the slide mass caused by the Little Ice Age advance and subsequent retreat of Devastation Glacier. The shearing resistance along the base of the rockslide mass was reduced prior to 1975 by substantial previous slope displacements related to glacial ice loss. Some of this displacement is likely to have occurred as subglacial slope deformation since ice fall and crevasse patterns suggest the presence of slide like shearing displacements below the base of adjacent glacier ice. In the Nostetuko case, the analysis of large-scale digital elevation models indicate that the outburst of 6.5 M m3 of water was initiated by a 1.5 M m3 glacier avalanche from Cumberland Glacier which initiated the breach. 1.6 M m3 of moraine was removed during the sudden breach and injected into the headwaters of the Nostetuko River. Thirdly, an attempt is made to quantify the increase in denudation and related sediment flux in mountain landscapes subject to catastrophic glacier-ice loss.

Multi-Decadal Averages of Basal Melt for Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica Using Airborne Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, I.; Bell, R. E.; Tinto, K. J.; Frearson, N.; Kingslake, J.; Padman, L.; Siddoway, C. S.; Fricker, H. A.

2017-12-01

Changes in ice shelf mass balance are key to the long term stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although the most extensive ice shelf mass loss currently is occurring in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica, many other ice shelves experience changes in thickness on time scales from annual to ice age cycles. Here, we focus on the Ross Ice Shelf. An 18-year record (1994-2012) of satellite radar altimetry shows substantial variability in Ross Ice Shelf height on interannual time scales, complicating detection of potential long-term climate-change signals in the mass budget of this ice shelf. Variability of radar signal penetration into the ice-shelf surface snow and firn layers further complicates assessment of mass changes. We investigate Ross Ice Shelf mass balance using aerogeophysical data from the ROSETTA-Ice surveys using IcePod. We use two ice-penetrating radars; a 2 GHz unit that images fine-structure in the upper 400 m of the ice surface and a 360 MHz radar to identify the ice shelf base. We have identified internal layers that are continuous along flow from the grounding line to the ice shelf front. Based on layer continuity, we conclude that these layers must be the horizons between the continental ice of the outlet glaciers and snow accumulation once the ice is afloat. We use the Lagrangian change in thickness of these layers, after correcting for strain rates derived using modern day InSAR velocities, to estimate multidecadal averaged basal melt rates. This method provides a novel way to quantify basal melt, avoiding the confounding impacts of spatial and short-timescale variability in surface accumulation and firn densification processes. Our estimates show elevated basal melt rates (> -1m/yr) around Byrd and Mullock glaciers within 100 km from the ice shelf front. We also compare modern InSAR velocity derived strain rates with estimates from the comprehensive ground-based RIGGS observations during 1973-1978 to estimate the potential magnitude of strain-driven thickness changes over four decades. Combining maps of basal melt rate with radar derived basal reflectivity, we identify regions that are undergoing melting and freezing and provide a comprehensive understanding of how ocean processes may be changing the base of Ross Ice Shelf in recent decades.

Examination of Icing Induced Loss of Control and Its Mitigations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reehorst, Andrew L.; Addy, Harold E., Jr.; Colantonio, Renato O.

2010-01-01

Factors external to the aircraft are often a significant causal factor in loss of control (LOC) accidents. In today s aviation world, very few accidents stem from a single cause and typically have a number of causal factors that culminate in a LOC accident. Very often the "trigger" that initiates an accident sequence is an external environment factor. In a recent NASA statistical analysis of LOC accidents, aircraft icing was shown to be the most common external environmental LOC causal factor for scheduled operations. When investigating LOC accident or incidents aircraft icing causal factors can be categorized into groups of 1) in-flight encounter with super-cooled liquid water clouds, 2) take-off with ice contamination, or 3) in-flight encounter with high concentrations of ice crystals. As with other flight hazards, icing induced LOC accidents can be prevented through avoidance, detection, and recovery mitigations. For icing hazards, avoidance can take the form of avoiding flight into icing conditions or avoiding the hazard of icing by making the aircraft tolerant to icing conditions. Icing detection mitigations can take the form of detecting icing conditions or detecting early performance degradation caused by icing. Recovery from icing induced LOC requires flight crew or automated systems capable of accounting for reduced aircraft performance and degraded control authority during the recovery maneuvers. In this report we review the icing induced LOC accident mitigations defined in a recent LOC study and for each mitigation describe a research topic required to enable or strengthen the mitigation. Many of these research topics are already included in ongoing or planned NASA icing research activities or are being addressed by members of the icing research community. These research activities are described and the status of the ongoing or planned research to address the technology needs is discussed

Air-sea interaction regimes in the sub-Antarctic Southern Ocean and Antarctic marginal ice zone revealed by icebreaker measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Lisan; Jin, Xiangze; Schulz, Eric W.; Josey, Simon A.

2017-08-01

This study analyzed shipboard air-sea measurements acquired by the icebreaker Aurora Australis during its off-winter operation in December 2010 to May 2012. Mean conditions over 7 months (October-April) were compiled from a total of 22 ship tracks. The icebreaker traversed the water between Hobart, Tasmania, and the Antarctic continent, providing valuable in situ insight into two dynamically important, yet poorly sampled, regimes: the sub-Antarctic Southern Ocean and the Antarctic marginal ice zone (MIZ) in the Indian Ocean sector. The transition from the open water to the ice-covered surface creates sharp changes in albedo, surface roughness, and air temperature, leading to consequential effects on air-sea variables and fluxes. Major effort was made to estimate the air-sea fluxes in the MIZ using the bulk flux algorithms that are tuned specifically for the sea-ice effects, while computing the fluxes over the sub-Antarctic section using the COARE3.0 algorithm. The study evidenced strong sea-ice modulations on winds, with the southerly airflow showing deceleration (convergence) in the MIZ and acceleration (divergence) when moving away from the MIZ. Marked seasonal variations in heat exchanges between the atmosphere and the ice margin were noted. The monotonic increase in turbulent latent and sensible heat fluxes after summer turned the MIZ quickly into a heat loss regime, while at the same time the sub-Antarctic surface water continued to receive heat from the atmosphere. The drastic increase in turbulent heat loss in the MIZ contrasted sharply to the nonsignificant and seasonally invariant turbulent heat loss over the sub-Antarctic open water.