The World Population Dilemma.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Population Reference Bureau, Inc., Washington, DC.

This book is the third in a series published by the Population Reference Bureau aimed at illuminating the facts and consequences of human population dynamics for secondary and college-age students. Many illustrations, charts and graphs are included in this volume to help the reader grasp a number of the current ideas and concepts that are used in…

The California spotted owl: current state of knowledge

Treesearch

R.J. Gutiérrez; Patricia N. Manley; Peter A. Stine

2017-01-01

This conservation assessment represents a comprehensive review by scientists of the current scientific knowledge about the ecology, habitat use, population dynamics, and current threats to the viability of the California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis). It is based primarily on peer-reviewed published information with an emphasis on new scientific...

Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

PubMed

Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

2012-01-01

Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

PubMed Central

Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

2012-01-01

Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

Understanding the Current Dynamical States of Globular Clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pooley, David

2008-09-01

We appear to be on the verge of a major paradigm shift in our understanding of the current dynamical states of Galactic globular clusters. Fregeau (2008) brought together two recent theoretical breakthroughs as well as an observational breakthrough made possible by Chandra -- that a globular cluster's X-ray source population scales with its dynamical encounter frequency -- to persuasively argue that we have misunderstood the dynamical states of Galactic globular clusters. The observational evidence hinges on Chandra results from clusters which are classified as "core collapsed," of which there are only a handful of observations. I propose a nearly complete census with Chandra of the rest of the "core collapsed" globular clusters.

Estimation of mussel population response to hydrologic alteration in a southeastern U.S. stream

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, J.T.; Wisniewski, J.M.; Shea, C.P.; Rhett, Jackson C.

2011-01-01

The southeastern United States has experienced severe, recurrent drought, rapid human population growth, and increasing agricultural irrigation during recent decades, resulting in greater demand for the water resources. During the same time period, freshwater mussels (Unioniformes) in the region have experienced substantial population declines. Consequently, there is growing interest in determining how mussel population declines are related to activities associated with water resource development. Determining the causes of mussel population declines requires, in part, an understanding of the factors influencing mussel population dynamics. We developed Pradel reverse-time, tag-recapture models to estimate survival, recruitment, and population growth rates for three federally endangered mussel species in the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, Georgia. The models were parameterized using mussel tag-recapture data collected over five consecutive years from Sawhatchee Creek, located in southwestern Georgia. Model estimates indicated that mussel survival was strongly and negatively related to high flows during the summer, whereas recruitment was strongly and positively related to flows during the spring and summer. Using these models, we simulated mussel population dynamics under historic (1940-1969) and current (1980-2008) flow regimes and under increasing levels of water use to evaluate the relative effectiveness of alternative minimum flow regulations. The simulations indicated that the probability of simulated mussel population extinction was at least 8 times greater under current hydrologic regimes. In addition, simulations of mussel extinction under varying levels of water use indicated that the relative risk of extinction increased with increased water use across a range of minimum flow regulations. The simulation results also indicated that our estimates of the effects of water use on mussel extinction were influenced by the assumptions about the dynamics of the system, highlighting the need for further study of mussel population dynamics. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC (outside the USA).

Recent range expansion of a terrestrial orchid corresponds with climate-driven variation in its population dynamics.

PubMed

van der Meer, Sascha; Jacquemyn, Hans; Carey, Peter D; Jongejans, Eelke

2016-06-01

The population dynamics and distribution limits of plant species are predicted to change as the climate changes. However, it remains unclear to what extent climate variables affect population dynamics, which vital rates are most sensitive to climate change, and whether the same vital rates drive population dynamics in different populations. In this study, we used long-term demographic data from two populations of the terrestrial orchid Himantoglossum hircinum growing at the northern edge of their geographic range to quantify the influence of climate change on demographic vital rates. Integral projection models were constructed to study how climate conditions between 1991 and 2006 affected population dynamics and to assess how projected future climate change will affect the long-term viability of this species. Based on the parameterised vital rate functions and the observed climatic conditions, one of the studied populations had an average population growth rate above 1 (λ = 1.04), while the other was declining at ca. 3 % year(-1) (λ = 0.97). Variation in temperature and precipitation mainly affected population growth through their effect on survival and fecundity. Based on UK Climate Projection 2009 estimates of future climate conditions for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, population growth rates are expected to increase in one of the studied populations. Overall, our results indicate that the observed changes in climatic conditions appeared to be beneficial to the long-term survival of the species in the UK and suggest that they may have been the driving force behind the current range expansion of H. hircinum in England.

Population dynamics and evaluation of alternative management strategies for nonnative Lake Trout in Priest Lake, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ng, Elizabeth L.; Fredericks, Jim P.; Quist, Michael C.

2016-01-01

Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush have been introduced widely throughout the western USA to enhance recreational fisheries, but high predatory demand can create challenges for management of yield and trophy fisheries alike. Lake Trout were introduced to Priest Lake, Idaho, during the 1920s, but few fishery-independent data are available to guide current or future management actions. We collected fishery-independent data to describe population dynamics and evaluate potential management scenarios using an age-structured population model. Lake Trout in Priest Lake were characterized by fast growth at young ages, which resulted in young age at maturity. However, adult growth rates and body condition were lower than for other Lake Trout populations. High rates of skipped spawning (>50%) were also observed. Model projections indicated that the population was growing (λ = 1.03). Eradication could be achieved by increasing annual mortality to 0.32, approximately twice the current rate. A protected slot length limit could increase population length-structure, but few fish grew fast enough to exit the slot. In contrast, a juvenile removal scenario targeting age-2 to age-5 Lake Trout maintained short-term harvest of trophy-length individuals while reducing overall population abundance.

Distribution of correlated spiking events in a population-based approach for Integrate-and-Fire networks.

PubMed

Zhang, Jiwei; Newhall, Katherine; Zhou, Douglas; Rangan, Aaditya

2014-04-01

Randomly connected populations of spiking neurons display a rich variety of dynamics. However, much of the current modeling and theoretical work has focused on two dynamical extremes: on one hand homogeneous dynamics characterized by weak correlations between neurons, and on the other hand total synchrony characterized by large populations firing in unison. In this paper we address the conceptual issue of how to mathematically characterize the partially synchronous "multiple firing events" (MFEs) which manifest in between these two dynamical extremes. We further develop a geometric method for obtaining the distribution of magnitudes of these MFEs by recasting the cascading firing event process as a first-passage time problem, and deriving an analytical approximation of the first passage time density valid for large neuron populations. Thus, we establish a direct link between the voltage distributions of excitatory and inhibitory neurons and the number of neurons firing in an MFE that can be easily integrated into population-based computational methods, thereby bridging the gap between homogeneous firing regimes and total synchrony.

Population growth rates: issues and an application.

PubMed Central

Godfray, H Charles J; Rees, Mark

2002-01-01

Current issues in population dynamics are discussed in the context of The Royal Society Discussion Meeting 'Population growth rate: determining factors and role in population regulation'. In particular, different views on the centrality of population growth rates to the study of population dynamics and the role of experiments and theory are explored. Major themes emerging include the role of modern statistical techniques in bringing together experimental and theoretical studies, the importance of long-term experimentation and the need for ecology to have model systems, and the value of population growth rate as a means of understanding and predicting population change. The last point is illustrated by the application of a recently introduced technique, integral projection modelling, to study the population growth rate of a monocarpic perennial plant, its elasticities to different life-history components and the evolution of an evolutionarily stable strategy size at flowering. PMID:12396521

Current temporal trends in moth abundance are counter to predicted effects of climate change in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths.

PubMed

Hunter, Mark D; Kozlov, Mikhail V; Itämies, Juhani; Pulliainen, Erkki; Bäck, Jaana; Kyrö, Ella-Maria; Niemelä, Pekka

2014-06-01

Changes in climate are influencing the distribution and abundance of the world's biota, with significant consequences for biological diversity and ecosystem processes. Recent work has raised concern that populations of moths and butterflies (Lepidoptera) may be particularly susceptible to population declines under environmental change. Moreover, effects of climate change may be especially pronounced in high latitude ecosystems. Here, we examine population dynamics in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths in Finnish Lapland to assess current trajectories of population change. Moth counts were made continuously over a period of 32 years using light traps. From 456 species recorded, 80 were sufficiently abundant for detailed analyses of their population dynamics. Climate records indicated rapid increases in temperature and winter precipitation at our study site during the sampling period. However, 90% of moth populations were stable (57%) or increasing (33%) over the same period of study. Nonetheless, current population trends do not appear to reflect positive responses to climate change. Rather, time-series models illustrated that the per capita rates of change of moth species were more frequently associated negatively than positively with climate change variables, even as their populations were increasing. For example, the per capita rates of change of 35% of microlepidoptera were associated negatively with climate change variables. Moth life-history traits were not generally strong predictors of current population change or associations with climate change variables. However, 60% of moth species that fed as larvae on resources other than living vascular plants (e.g. litter, lichen, mosses) were associated negatively with climate change variables in time-series models, suggesting that such species may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Overall, populations of subarctic forest moths in Finland are performing better than expected, and their populations appear buffered at present from potential deleterious effects of climate change by other ecological forces. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

U.S. Population: Where We Are; Where We're Going.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van der Tak, Jean, Ed.

1982-01-01

Recent trends in the dynamics and character of the U.S. population, outlook for the remainder of 1980s, and prospects for long-term growth are reviewed. Estimated at 232 million as of mid-1982, the U.S. population is currently growing at about 1 percent/year, one of the developed world's highest growth rates. Natural increase (births minus deaths)…

Range shift and introgression of the rear and leading populations in two ecologically distinct Rubus species.

PubMed

Mimura, Makiko; Mishima, Misako; Lascoux, Martin; Yahara, Tetsukazu

2014-10-25

The margins of a species' range might be located at the margins of a species' niche, and in such cases, can be highly vulnerable to climate changes. They, however, may also undergo significant evolutionary changes due to drastic population dynamics in response to climate changes, which may increase the chances of isolation and contact among species. Such species interactions induced by climate changes could then regulate or facilitate further responses to climatic changes. We hypothesized that climate changes lead to species contacts and subsequent genetic exchanges due to differences in population dynamics at the species boundaries. We sampled two closely related Rubus species, one temperate (Rubus palmatus) and the other subtropical (R. grayanus) near their joint species boundaries in southern Japan. Coalescent analysis, based on molecular data and ecological niche modelling during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), were used to infer past population dynamics. At the contact zones on Yakushima (Yaku Island), where the two species are parapatrically distributed, we tested hybridization along altitudinal gradients. Coalescent analysis suggested that the southernmost populations of R. palmatus predated the LGM (~20,000 ya). Conversely, populations at the current northern limit of R. grayanus diverged relatively recently and likely represent young outposts of a northbound range shift. These population dynamics were partly supported by the ensemble forecasting of six different species distribution models. Both past and ongoing hybridizations were detected near and on Yakushima. Backcrosses and advanced-generation hybrids likely generated the clinal hybrid zones along altitudinal gradients on the island where the two species are currently parapatrically distributed. Climate oscillations during the Quaternary Period and the response of a species in range shifts likely led to repeated contacts with the gene pools of ecologically distinct relatives. Such species interactions, induced by climate changes, may bring new genetic material to the marginal populations where species tend to experience more extreme climatic conditions at the margins of the species distribution.

Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models.

PubMed

Keith, David A; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thuiller, Wilfried; Midgley, Guy F; Pearson, Richard G; Phillips, Steven J; Regan, Helen M; Araújo, Miguel B; Rebelo, Tony G

2008-10-23

Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.

Population Dynamics of Belonolaimus longicaudatusin a Cotton Production System

PubMed Central

Crow, W. T.; Weingartner, D. P.; McSorley, R.; Dickson, D. W.

2000-01-01

Belonolaimus longicaudatus is a recognized pathogen of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum), but insufficient information is available on the population dynamics and economic thresholds of B. longicaudatus in cotton production. In this study, data collected from a field in Florida were used to develop models predicting population increases of B. longicaudatus on cotton and population declines under clean fallow. Population densities of B. longicaudatus increased on cotton, reaching a carrying capacity of 139 nematodes/130 cm³ of soil, but decreased exponentially during periods of bare fallow. The model indicated that population densities should decrease each year of monocropped cotton, if an alternate host is not present between sequential cotton crops. Economic thresholds derived from published damage functions and current prices for cotton and nematicides varied from 2 to 5 B. longicaudatus/130 cm³ of soil, depending on the nematicide used. PMID:19270968

Response of an arctic predator guild to collapsing lemming cycles

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Niels M.; Ims, Rolf A.; Høye, Toke T.; Gilg, Olivier; Hansen, Lars H.; Hansen, Jannik; Lund, Magnus; Fuglei, Eva; Forchhammer, Mads C.; Sittler, Benoit

2012-01-01

Alpine and arctic lemming populations appear to be highly sensitive to climate change, and when faced with warmer and shorter winters, their well-known high-amplitude population cycles may collapse. Being keystone species in tundra ecosystems, changed lemming dynamics may convey significant knock-on effects on trophically linked species. Here, we analyse long-term (1988–2010), community-wide monitoring data from two sites in high-arctic Greenland and document how a collapse in collared lemming cyclicity affects the population dynamics of the predator guild. Dramatic changes were observed in two highly specialized lemming predators: snowy owl and stoat. Following the lemming cycle collapse, snowy owl fledgling production declined by 98 per cent, and there was indication of a severe population decline of stoats at one site. The less specialized long-tailed skua and the generalist arctic fox were more loosely coupled to the lemming dynamics. Still, the lemming collapse had noticeable effects on their reproductive performance. Predator responses differed somewhat between sites in all species and could arise from site-specific differences in lemming dynamics, intra-guild interactions or subsidies from other resources. Nevertheless, population extinctions and community restructuring of this arctic endemic predator guild are likely if the lemming dynamics are maintained at the current non-cyclic, low-density state. PMID:22977153

Response of an arctic predator guild to collapsing lemming cycles.

PubMed

Schmidt, Niels M; Ims, Rolf A; Høye, Toke T; Gilg, Olivier; Hansen, Lars H; Hansen, Jannik; Lund, Magnus; Fuglei, Eva; Forchhammer, Mads C; Sittler, Benoit

2012-11-07

Alpine and arctic lemming populations appear to be highly sensitive to climate change, and when faced with warmer and shorter winters, their well-known high-amplitude population cycles may collapse. Being keystone species in tundra ecosystems, changed lemming dynamics may convey significant knock-on effects on trophically linked species. Here, we analyse long-term (1988-2010), community-wide monitoring data from two sites in high-arctic Greenland and document how a collapse in collared lemming cyclicity affects the population dynamics of the predator guild. Dramatic changes were observed in two highly specialized lemming predators: snowy owl and stoat. Following the lemming cycle collapse, snowy owl fledgling production declined by 98 per cent, and there was indication of a severe population decline of stoats at one site. The less specialized long-tailed skua and the generalist arctic fox were more loosely coupled to the lemming dynamics. Still, the lemming collapse had noticeable effects on their reproductive performance. Predator responses differed somewhat between sites in all species and could arise from site-specific differences in lemming dynamics, intra-guild interactions or subsidies from other resources. Nevertheless, population extinctions and community restructuring of this arctic endemic predator guild are likely if the lemming dynamics are maintained at the current non-cyclic, low-density state.

Environmental variability and population dynamics: Do European and North American ducks play by the same rules?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pöysä, Hannu; Rintala, Jukka; Johnson, Douglas H.; Kauppinen, Jukka; Lammi, Esa; Nudds, Thomas D.; Väänänen, Veli-Matti

2016-01-01

Density dependence, population regulation, and variability in population size are fundamental population processes, the manifestation and interrelationships of which are affected by environmental variability. However, there are surprisingly few empirical studies that distinguish the effect of environmental variability from the effects of population processes. We took advantage of a unique system, in which populations of the same duck species or close ecological counterparts live in highly variable (north American prairies) and in stable (north European lakes) environments, to distinguish the relative contributions of environmental variability (measured as between-year fluctuations in wetland numbers) and intraspecific interactions (density dependence) in driving population dynamics. We tested whether populations living in stable environments (in northern Europe) were more strongly governed by density dependence than populations living in variable environments (in North America). We also addressed whether relative population dynamical responses to environmental variability versus density corresponded to differences in life history strategies between dabbling (relatively “fast species” and governed by environmental variability) and diving (relatively “slow species” and governed by density) ducks. As expected, the variance component of population fluctuations caused by changes in breeding environments was greater in North America than in Europe. Contrary to expectations, however, populations in more stable environments were not less variable nor clearly more strongly density dependent than populations in highly variable environments. Also, contrary to expectations, populations of diving ducks were neither more stable nor stronger density dependent than populations of dabbling ducks, and the effect of environmental variability on population dynamics was greater in diving than in dabbling ducks. In general, irrespective of continent and species life history, environmental variability contributed more to variation in species abundances than did density. Our findings underscore the need for more studies on populations of the same species in different environments to verify the generality of current explanations about population dynamics and its association with species life history.

Environmental variability and population dynamics: do European and North American ducks play by the same rules?

PubMed

Pöysä, Hannu; Rintala, Jukka; Johnson, Douglas H; Kauppinen, Jukka; Lammi, Esa; Nudds, Thomas D; Väänänen, Veli-Matti

2016-10-01

Density dependence, population regulation, and variability in population size are fundamental population processes, the manifestation and interrelationships of which are affected by environmental variability. However, there are surprisingly few empirical studies that distinguish the effect of environmental variability from the effects of population processes. We took advantage of a unique system, in which populations of the same duck species or close ecological counterparts live in highly variable (north American prairies) and in stable (north European lakes) environments, to distinguish the relative contributions of environmental variability (measured as between-year fluctuations in wetland numbers) and intraspecific interactions (density dependence) in driving population dynamics. We tested whether populations living in stable environments (in northern Europe) were more strongly governed by density dependence than populations living in variable environments (in North America). We also addressed whether relative population dynamical responses to environmental variability versus density corresponded to differences in life history strategies between dabbling (relatively "fast species" and governed by environmental variability) and diving (relatively "slow species" and governed by density) ducks. As expected, the variance component of population fluctuations caused by changes in breeding environments was greater in North America than in Europe. Contrary to expectations, however, populations in more stable environments were not less variable nor clearly more strongly density dependent than populations in highly variable environments. Also, contrary to expectations, populations of diving ducks were neither more stable nor stronger density dependent than populations of dabbling ducks, and the effect of environmental variability on population dynamics was greater in diving than in dabbling ducks. In general, irrespective of continent and species life history, environmental variability contributed more to variation in species abundances than did density. Our findings underscore the need for more studies on populations of the same species in different environments to verify the generality of current explanations about population dynamics and its association with species life history.

Theoretical Approaches in Evolutionary Ecology: Environmental Feedback as a Unifying Perspective.

PubMed

Lion, Sébastien

2018-01-01

Evolutionary biology and ecology have a strong theoretical underpinning, and this has fostered a variety of modeling approaches. A major challenge of this theoretical work has been to unravel the tangled feedback loop between ecology and evolution. This has prompted the development of two main classes of models. While quantitative genetics models jointly consider the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of a focal population, a separation of timescales between ecology and evolution is assumed by evolutionary game theory, adaptive dynamics, and inclusive fitness theory. As a result, theoretical evolutionary ecology tends to be divided among different schools of thought, with different toolboxes and motivations. My aim in this synthesis is to highlight the connections between these different approaches and clarify the current state of theory in evolutionary ecology. Central to this approach is to make explicit the dependence on environmental dynamics of the population and evolutionary dynamics, thereby materializing the eco-evolutionary feedback loop. This perspective sheds light on the interplay between environmental feedback and the timescales of ecological and evolutionary processes. I conclude by discussing some potential extensions and challenges to our current theoretical understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Serreze, Mark; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Caswell, Hal

2014-08-01

Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution and future trends of local populations, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) effort. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by >50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics, global analyses are critical for conservation. We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangered by future climate change.

Increasing BCI Communication Rates with Dynamic Stopping Towards More Practical Use: An ALS Study

PubMed Central

Mainsah, B. O.; Collins, L. M.; Colwell, K. A.; Sellers, E. W.; Ryan, D. B.; Caves, K.; Throckmorton, C. S.

2015-01-01

Objective The P300 speller is a brain-computer interface (BCI) that can possibly restore communication abilities to individuals with severe neuromuscular disabilities, such as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), by exploiting elicited brain signals in electroencephalography data. However, accurate spelling with BCIs is slow due to the need to average data over multiple trials to increase the signal-to-noise ratio of the elicited brain signals. Probabilistic approaches to dynamically control data collection have shown improved performance in non-disabled populations; however, validation of these approaches in a target BCI user population has not occurred. Approach We have developed a data-driven algorithm for the P300 speller based on Bayesian inference that improves spelling time by adaptively selecting the number of trials based on the acute signal-to-noise ratio of a user’s electroencephalography data. We further enhanced the algorithm by incorporating information about the user’s language. In this current study, we test and validate the algorithms online in a target BCI user population, by comparing the performance of the dynamic stopping (or early stopping) algorithms against the current state-of-the-art method, static data collection, where the amount of data collected is fixed prior to online operation. Main Results Results from online testing of the dynamic stopping algorithms in participants with ALS demonstrate a significant increase in communication rate as measured in bits/sec (100-300%), and theoretical bit rate (100-550%), while maintaining selection accuracy. Participants also overwhelmingly preferred the dynamic stopping algorithms. Significance We have developed a viable BCI algorithm that has been tested in a target BCI population which has the potential for translation to improve BCI speller performance towards more practical use for communication. PMID:25588137

Dynamics of West Nile virus evolution in mosquito vectors.

PubMed

Grubaugh, Nathan D; Ebel, Gregory D

2016-12-01

West Nile virus remains the most common cause of arboviral encephalitis in North America. Since it was introduced, it has undergone adaptive genetic change as it spread throughout the continent. The WNV transmission cycle is relatively tractable in the laboratory. Thus the virus serves as a convenient model system for studying the population biology of mosquito-borne flaviviruses as they undergo transmission to and from mosquitoes and vertebrates. This review summarizes the current knowledge regarding the population dynamics of this virus within mosquito vectors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bridging the gap between habitat-modeling research and bird conservation with dynamic landscape and population models

Treesearch

Frank R., III Thompson

2009-01-01

Habitat models are widely used in bird conservation planning to assess current habitat or populations and to evaluate management alternatives. These models include species-habitat matrix or database models, habitat suitability models, and statistical models that predict abundance. While extremely useful, these approaches have some limitations.

Task-phase-specific dynamics of basal forebrain neuronal ensembles

PubMed Central

Tingley, David; Alexander, Andrew S.; Kolbu, Sean; de Sa, Virginia R.; Chiba, Andrea A.; Nitz, Douglas A.

2014-01-01

Cortically projecting basal forebrain neurons play a critical role in learning and attention, and their degeneration accompanies age-related impairments in cognition. Despite the impressive anatomical and cell-type complexity of this system, currently available data suggest that basal forebrain neurons lack complexity in their response fields, with activity primarily reflecting only macro-level brain states such as sleep and wake, onset of relevant stimuli and/or reward obtainment. The current study examined the spiking activity of basal forebrain neuron populations across multiple phases of a selective attention task, addressing, in particular, the issue of complexity in ensemble firing patterns across time. Clustering techniques applied to the full population revealed a large number of distinct categories of task-phase-specific activity patterns. Unique population firing-rate vectors defined each task phase and most categories of task-phase-specific firing had counterparts with opposing firing patterns. An analogous set of task-phase-specific firing patterns was also observed in a population of posterior parietal cortex neurons. Thus, consistent with the known anatomical complexity, basal forebrain population dynamics are capable of differentially modulating their cortical targets according to the unique sets of environmental stimuli, motor requirements, and cognitive processes associated with different task phases. PMID:25309352

Eco-evolutionary effects on population recovery following catastrophic disturbance

PubMed Central

Weese, Dylan J; Schwartz, Amy K; Bentzen, Paul; Hendry, Andrew P; Kinnison, Michael T

2011-01-01

Fine-scale genetic diversity and contemporary evolution can theoretically influence ecological dynamics in the wild. Such eco-evolutionary effects might be particularly relevant to the persistence of populations facing acute or chronic environmental change. However, experimental data on wild populations is currently lacking to support this notion. One way that ongoing evolution might influence the dynamics of threatened populations is through the role that selection plays in mediating the ‘rescue effect’, the ability of migrants to contribute to the recovery of populations facing local disturbance and decline. Here, we combine experiments with natural catastrophic events to show that ongoing evolution is a major determinant of migrant contributions to population recovery in Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata). These eco-evolutionary limits on migrant contributions appear to be mediated by the reinforcing effects of natural and sexual selection against migrants, despite the close geographic proximity of migrant sources. These findings show that ongoing adaptive evolution can be a double-edged sword for population persistence, maintaining local fitness at a cost to demographic risk. Our study further serves as a potent reminder that significant evolutionary and eco-evolutionary dynamics might be at play even where the phenotypic status quo is largely maintained generation to generation. PMID:25567978

Dynamics of Economic Well-Being: Poverty 1996-1999. Current Population Reports.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Iceland, John

This report examines patterns of poverty using seven different measures: average monthly poverty, episodic poverty, chronic poverty, annual poverty, poverty spells, poverty entry rates, and poverty exit rates. Data come from the 1996 panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) and reflect the dynamics of poverty from 1996-1999.…

Mussel dynamics model: A hydroinformatics tool for analyzing the effects of different stressors on the dynamics of freshwater mussel communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morales, Y.; Weber, L.J.; Mynett, A.E.; Newton, T.J.

2006-01-01

A model for simulating freshwater mussel population dynamics is presented. The model is a hydroinformatics tool that integrates principles from ecology, river hydraulics, fluid mechanics and sediment transport, and applies the individual-based modelling approach for simulating population dynamics. The general model layout, data requirements, and steps of the simulation process are discussed. As an illustration, simulation results from an application in a 10 km reach of the Upper Mississippi River are presented. The model was used to investigate the spatial distribution of mussels and the effects of food competition in native unionid mussel communities, and communities infested by Dreissena polymorpha, the zebra mussel. Simulation results were found to be realistic and coincided with data obtained from the literature. These results indicate that the model can be a useful tool for assessing the potential effects of different stressors on long-term population dynamics, and consequently, may improve the current understanding of cause and effect relationships in freshwater mussel communities. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A kinetic theory for age-structured stochastic birth-death processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, Tom; Greenman, Chris

Classical age-structured mass-action models such as the McKendrick-von Foerster equation have been extensively studied but they are structurally unable to describe stochastic fluctuations or population-size-dependent birth and death rates. Conversely, current theories that include size-dependent population dynamics (e.g., carrying capacity) cannot be easily extended to take into account age-dependent birth and death rates. In this paper, we present a systematic derivation of a new fully stochastic kinetic theory for interacting age-structured populations. By defining multiparticle probability density functions, we derive a hierarchy of kinetic equations for the stochastic evolution of an aging population undergoing birth and death. We show that the fully stochastic age-dependent birth-death process precludes factorization of the corresponding probability densities, which then must be solved by using a BBGKY-like hierarchy. Our results generalize both deterministic models and existing master equation approaches by providing an intuitive and efficient way to simultaneously model age- and population-dependent stochastic dynamics applicable to the study of demography, stem cell dynamics, and disease evolution. NSF.

COPS: Large-scale nonlinearly constrained optimization problems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bondarenko, A.S.; Bortz, D.M.; More, J.J.

2000-02-10

The authors have started the development of COPS, a collection of large-scale nonlinearly Constrained Optimization Problems. The primary purpose of this collection is to provide difficult test cases for optimization software. Problems in the current version of the collection come from fluid dynamics, population dynamics, optimal design, and optimal control. For each problem they provide a short description of the problem, notes on the formulation of the problem, and results of computational experiments with general optimization solvers. They currently have results for DONLP2, LANCELOT, MINOS, SNOPT, and LOQO.

The terrestrial ring current - From in situ measurements to global images using energetic neutral atoms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roelof, Edmond C.; Williams, Donald J.

1988-01-01

Electrical currents flowing in the equatorial magnetosphere, first inferred from ground-based magnetic disturbances, are carried by trapped energetic ions. Spacecraft measurements have determined the spectrum and composition of those currents, and the newly developed technique of energetic-neutral-atom imaging allows the global dynamics of that entire ion population to be viewed from a single spacecraft.

Concepts and tools for predictive modeling of microbial dynamics.

PubMed

Bernaerts, Kristel; Dens, Els; Vereecken, Karen; Geeraerd, Annemie H; Standaert, Arnout R; Devlieghere, Frank; Debevere, Johan; Van Impe, Jan F

2004-09-01

Description of microbial cell (population) behavior as influenced by dynamically changing environmental conditions intrinsically needs dynamic mathematical models. In the past, major effort has been put into the modeling of microbial growth and inactivation within a constant environment (static models). In the early 1990s, differential equation models (dynamic models) were introduced in the field of predictive microbiology. Here, we present a general dynamic model-building concept describing microbial evolution under dynamic conditions. Starting from an elementary model building block, the model structure can be gradually complexified to incorporate increasing numbers of influencing factors. Based on two case studies, the fundamentals of both macroscopic (population) and microscopic (individual) modeling approaches are revisited. These illustrations deal with the modeling of (i) microbial lag under variable temperature conditions and (ii) interspecies microbial interactions mediated by lactic acid production (product inhibition). Current and future research trends should address the need for (i) more specific measurements at the cell and/or population level, (ii) measurements under dynamic conditions, and (iii) more comprehensive (mechanistically inspired) model structures. In the context of quantitative microbial risk assessment, complexity of the mathematical model must be kept under control. An important challenge for the future is determination of a satisfactory trade-off between predictive power and manageability of predictive microbiology models.

Role of conformational dynamics in the evolution of novel enzyme function.

PubMed

Maria-Solano, Miguel A; Serrano-Hervás, Eila; Romero-Rivera, Adrian; Iglesias-Fernández, Javier; Osuna, Sílvia

2018-05-21

The free energy landscape concept that describes enzymes as an ensemble of differently populated conformational sub-states in dynamic equilibrium is key for evaluating enzyme activity, enantioselectivity, and specificity. Mutations introduced in the enzyme sequence can alter the populations of the pre-existing conformational states, thus strongly modifying the enzyme ability to accommodate alternative substrates, revert its enantiopreferences, and even increase the activity for some residual promiscuous reactions. In this feature article, we present an overview of the current experimental and computational strategies to explore the conformational free energy landscape of enzymes. We provide a series of recent publications that highlight the key role of conformational dynamics for the enzyme evolution towards new functions and substrates, and provide some perspectives on how conformational dynamism should be considered in future computational enzyme design protocols.

Coherent Dynamics of Open Quantum System in the Presence of Majorana Fermions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Assuncao, Maryzaura O.; Diniz, Ginetom S.; Vernek, Edson; Souza, Fabricio M.

In recent years the research on quantum coherent dynamics of open systems has attracted great attention due to its relevance for future implementation of quantum computers. In the present study we apply the Kadanoff-Baym formalism to simulate the population dynamics of a double-dot molecular system attached to both a superconductor and fermionic reservoirs. We solve both analytically and numerically a set of coupled differential equations that account for crossed Andreev reflection (CAR), intramolecular hopping and tunneling. We pay particular attention on how Majorana bound states can affect the population dynamics of the molecule. We investigate on how initial state configuration affects the dynamics. For instance, if one dot is occupied and the other one is empty, the dynamics is dictated by the inter dot tunneling. On the other hand, for initially empty dots, the CAR dominates. We also investigate how the source and drain currents evolve in time. This work was supporte by FAPEMIG, CNPq and CAPES.

The impact of exospheric neutral dynamics on ring current decay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ilie, R.; Liemohn, M. W.; Skoug, R. M.; Funsten, H. O.; Gruntman, M.; Bailey, J. J.; Toth, G.

2015-12-01

The geocorona plays an important role in the energy budget of the Earth's inner magnetosphere since charge exchange of energetic ions with exospheric neutrals makes the exosphere act as an energy sink for ring current particles. Long-term ring current decay following a magnetic storm is mainly due to these electron transfer reactions, leading to the formation energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) that leave the ring current system on ballistic trajectories. The number of ENAs emitted from a given region of space depends on several factors, such as the energy and species of the energetic ion population in that region and the density of the neutral gas with which the ions undergo charge exchange. However, the density and structure of the exosphere are strongly dependent on changes in atmospheric temperature and density as well as charge exchange with the ions of plasmaspheric origin, which depletes the geocorona (by having a neutral removed from the system). Moreover, the radiation pressure exerted by solar far-ultraviolet photons pushes the geocoronal hydrogen away from the Earth in an anti-sunward direction to form a tail of neutral hydrogen. TWINS ENA images provide a direct measurement of these ENA losses and therefore insight into the dynamics of the ring current decay through interactions with the geocorona. We assess the influence of geocoronal neutrals on ring current formation and decay by analysis of the predicted ENA emissions using 6 different geocoronal models and simulations from the HEIDI ring current model during storm time. Comparison with TWINS ENA images shows that the location of the peak ENA enhancements is highly dependent on the distribution of geocoronal hydrogen density. We show that the neutral dynamics has a strong influence on the time evolution of the ring current populations as well as on the formation of energetic neutral atoms.

Predicting population survival under future climate change: density dependence, drought and extraction in an insular bighorn sheep.

PubMed

Colchero, Fernando; Medellin, Rodrigo A; Clark, James S; Lee, Raymond; Katul, Gabriel G

2009-05-01

1. Our understanding of the interplay between density dependence, climatic perturbations, and conservation practices on the dynamics of small populations is still limited. This can result in uninformed strategies that put endangered populations at risk. Moreover, the data available for a large number of populations in such circumstances are sparse and mined with missing data. Under the current climate change scenarios, it is essential to develop appropriate inferential methods that can make use of such data sets. 2. We studied a population of desert bighorn sheep introduced to Tiburon Island, Mexico in 1975 and subjected to irregular extractions for the last 10 years. The unique attributes of this population are absence of predation and disease, thereby permitting us to explore the combined effect of density dependence, environmental variability and extraction in a 'controlled setting.' Using a combination of nonlinear discrete models with long-term field data, we constructed three basic Bayesian state space models with increasing density dependence (DD), and the same three models with the addition of summer drought effects. 3. We subsequently used Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the combined effect of drought, DD, and increasing extractions on the probability of population survival under two climate change scenarios (based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predictions): (i) increase in drought variability; and (ii) increase in mean drought severity. 4. The population grew from 16 individuals introduced in 1975 to close to 700 by 1993. Our results show that the population's growth was dominated by DD, with drought having a secondary but still relevant effect on its dynamics. 5. Our predictions suggest that under climate change scenario (i), extraction dominates the fate of the population, while for scenario (ii), an increase in mean drought affects the population's probability of survival in an equivalent magnitude as extractions. Thus, for the long-term survival of the population, our results stress that a more variable environment is less threatening than one in which the mean conditions become harsher. Current climate change scenarios and their underlying uncertainty make studies such as this one crucial for understanding the dynamics of ungulate populations and their conservation.

Insect management in deciduous orchard ecosystems: Habitat manipulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tedders, W. L.

1983-01-01

Current literature pertaining to habitat manipulation of deciduous fruit and nut orchards for pest control is reviewed. The hypothesis of pesticide-induced pest problems in deciduous orchards as well as the changing pest population dynamics of deciduous orchards is discussed An experimental habitat manipulation program for pecans, utilizing vetch cover crops to enhance lady beetle populations for pecan aphid control is presented

Innovations in Play Therapy: Issues, Process, and Special Populations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Landreth, Garry L., Ed.

This book is a compilation of discussions on current issues in play therapy. It is designed to help therapists fill in the gaps about working with special populations, which is often not directly addressed in other play therapy resources. The object of the book is to bring together information related to issues and dynamics of the process of this…

G-quadruplex dynamics.

PubMed

Harkness, Robert W; Mittermaier, Anthony K

2017-11-01

G-quadruplexes (GQs) are four-stranded nucleic acid secondary structures formed by guanosine (G)-rich DNA and RNA sequences. It is becoming increasingly clear that cellular processes including gene expression and mRNA translation are regulated by GQs. GQ structures have been extensively characterized, however little attention to date has been paid to their conformational dynamics, despite the fact that many biological GQ sequences populate multiple structures of similar free energies, leading to an ensemble of exchanging conformations. The impact of these dynamics on biological function is currently not well understood. Recently, structural dynamics have been demonstrated to entropically stabilize GQ ensembles, potentially modulating gene expression. Transient, low-populated states in GQ ensembles may additionally regulate nucleic acid interactions and function. This review will underscore the interplay of GQ dynamics and biological function, focusing on several dynamic processes for biological GQs and the characterization of GQ dynamics by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy in conjunction with other biophysical techniques. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Biophysics in Canada, edited by Lewis Kay, John Baenziger, Albert Berghuis and Peter Tieleman. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling Population and Ecosystem Response to Sublethal Toxicant Exposure

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-09-30

mutualism utilized modified Lotka - Volterra (L-V) competition equations in which the sign of the interspecific interaction term was changed from...within complex communities and ecosystems. Prior to the current award, the PIs formulated and tested general dynamic energy budget models...Nisbet, 1998; chapter 7) make a convincing case that ecosystems do truly have dynamics that can be described by relatively simple, general , models

Genetic algorithms with memory- and elitism-based immigrants in dynamic environments.

PubMed

Yang, Shengxiang

2008-01-01

In recent years the genetic algorithm community has shown a growing interest in studying dynamic optimization problems. Several approaches have been devised. The random immigrants and memory schemes are two major ones. The random immigrants scheme addresses dynamic environments by maintaining the population diversity while the memory scheme aims to adapt genetic algorithms quickly to new environments by reusing historical information. This paper investigates a hybrid memory and random immigrants scheme, called memory-based immigrants, and a hybrid elitism and random immigrants scheme, called elitism-based immigrants, for genetic algorithms in dynamic environments. In these schemes, the best individual from memory or the elite from the previous generation is retrieved as the base to create immigrants into the population by mutation. This way, not only can diversity be maintained but it is done more efficiently to adapt genetic algorithms to the current environment. Based on a series of systematically constructed dynamic problems, experiments are carried out to compare genetic algorithms with the memory-based and elitism-based immigrants schemes against genetic algorithms with traditional memory and random immigrants schemes and a hybrid memory and multi-population scheme. The sensitivity analysis regarding some key parameters is also carried out. Experimental results show that the memory-based and elitism-based immigrants schemes efficiently improve the performance of genetic algorithms in dynamic environments.

Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics: from teal to swans

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koons, David N.; Gunnarsson, Gunnar; Schmutz, Joel A.; Rotella, Jay J.

2014-01-01

Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding ofwaterfowl population dynamics across species as short-lived as the teal Anas discors and A.crecca to those such as the swans Cygnus sp. which have long life-spans. Specifically, we focus on population responses to vital rate perturbations across life history strategies, discuss bottom-up and top-down responses of waterfowlpopulations to global change, and summarise our current understanding of density dependence across waterfowl species. We close by identifying research needs and highlight ways to overcome the challenges of sustainably managing waterfowl populations in the 21st century.

Multi-fractal characterization of bacterial swimming dynamics: a case study on real and simulated Serratia marcescens

PubMed Central

Bogdan, Paul; Wei, Guopeng; Marculescu, Radu; Zhuang, Jiang; Carlsen, Rika Wright; Sitti, Metin

2017-01-01

To add to the current state of knowledge about bacterial swimming dynamics, in this paper, we study the fractal swimming dynamics of populations of Serratia marcescens bacteria both in vitro and in silico, while accounting for realistic conditions like volume exclusion, chemical interactions, obstacles and distribution of chemoattractant in the environment. While previous research has shown that bacterial motion is non-ergodic, we demonstrate that, besides the non-ergodicity, the bacterial swimming dynamics is multi-fractal in nature. Finally, we demonstrate that the multi-fractal characteristic of bacterial dynamics is strongly affected by bacterial density and chemoattractant concentration. PMID:28804259

Surprising migration and population size dynamics in ancient Iberian brown bears (Ursus arctos)

PubMed Central

Valdiosera, Cristina E.; García-Garitagoitia, José Luis; Garcia, Nuria; Doadrio, Ignacio; Thomas, Mark G.; Hänni, Catherine; Arsuaga, Juan-Luis; Barnes, Ian; Hofreiter, Michael; Orlando, Ludovic; Götherström, Anders

2008-01-01

The endangered brown bear populations (Ursus arctos) in Iberia have been suggested to be the last fragments of the brown bear population that served as recolonization stock for large parts of Europe during the Pleistocene. Conservation efforts are intense, and results are closely monitored. However, the efforts are based on the assumption that the Iberian bears are a unique unit that has evolved locally for an extended period. We have sequenced mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) from ancient Iberian bear remains and analyzed them as a serial dataset, monitoring changes in diversity and occurrence of European haplogroups over time. Using these data, we show that the Iberian bear population has experienced a dynamic, recent evolutionary history. Not only has the population undergone mitochondrial gene flow from other European brown bears, but the effective population size also has fluctuated substantially. We conclude that the Iberian bear population has been a fluid evolutionary unit, developed by gene flow from other populations and population bottlenecks, far from being in genetic equilibrium or isolated from other brown bear populations. Thus, the current situation is highly unusual and the population may in fact be isolated for the first time in its history. PMID:18347332

Surprising migration and population size dynamics in ancient Iberian brown bears (Ursus arctos).

PubMed

Valdiosera, Cristina E; García-Garitagoitia, José Luis; Garcia, Nuria; Doadrio, Ignacio; Thomas, Mark G; Hänni, Catherine; Arsuaga, Juan-Luis; Barnes, Ian; Hofreiter, Michael; Orlando, Ludovic; Götherström, Anders

2008-04-01

The endangered brown bear populations (Ursus arctos) in Iberia have been suggested to be the last fragments of the brown bear population that served as recolonization stock for large parts of Europe during the Pleistocene. Conservation efforts are intense, and results are closely monitored. However, the efforts are based on the assumption that the Iberian bears are a unique unit that has evolved locally for an extended period. We have sequenced mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) from ancient Iberian bear remains and analyzed them as a serial dataset, monitoring changes in diversity and occurrence of European haplogroups over time. Using these data, we show that the Iberian bear population has experienced a dynamic, recent evolutionary history. Not only has the population undergone mitochondrial gene flow from other European brown bears, but the effective population size also has fluctuated substantially. We conclude that the Iberian bear population has been a fluid evolutionary unit, developed by gene flow from other populations and population bottlenecks, far from being in genetic equilibrium or isolated from other brown bear populations. Thus, the current situation is highly unusual and the population may in fact be isolated for the first time in its history.

Dynamical Origin and Terrestrial Impact Flux of Large Near-Earth Asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nesvorný, David; Roig, Fernando

2018-01-01

Dynamical models of the asteroid delivery from the main belt suggest that the current impact flux of diameter D> 10 km asteroids on the Earth is ≃0.5–1 Gyr‑1. Studies of the Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) population find a much higher flux, with ≃ 7 D> 10 km asteroid impacts per Gyr. Here we show that this problem is rooted in the application of impact probability of small NEAs (≃1.5 Gyr‑1 per object), whose population is well characterized, to large NEAs. In reality, large NEAs evolve from the main belt by different escape routes, have a different orbital distribution, and lower impact probabilities (0.8 ± 0.3 Gyr‑1 per object) than small NEAs. In addition, we find that the current population of two D> 10 km NEAs (Ganymed and Eros) is a slight fluctuation over the long-term average of 1.1+/- 0.5 D> 10 km NEAs in a steady state. These results have important implications for our understanding of the occurrence of the K/T-scale impacts on the terrestrial worlds.

Population Density and Moment-based Approaches to Modeling Domain Calcium-mediated Inactivation of L-type Calcium Channels.

PubMed

Wang, Xiao; Hardcastle, Kiah; Weinberg, Seth H; Smith, Gregory D

2016-03-01

We present a population density and moment-based description of the stochastic dynamics of domain [Formula: see text]-mediated inactivation of L-type [Formula: see text] channels. Our approach accounts for the effect of heterogeneity of local [Formula: see text] signals on whole cell [Formula: see text] currents; however, in contrast with prior work, e.g., Sherman et al. (Biophys J 58(4):985-995, 1990), we do not assume that [Formula: see text] domain formation and collapse are fast compared to channel gating. We demonstrate the population density and moment-based modeling approaches using a 12-state Markov chain model of an L-type [Formula: see text] channel introduced by Greenstein and Winslow (Biophys J 83(6):2918-2945, 2002). Simulated whole cell voltage clamp responses yield an inactivation function for the whole cell [Formula: see text] current that agrees with the traditional approach when domain dynamics are fast. We analyze the voltage-dependence of [Formula: see text] inactivation that may occur via slow heterogeneous domain [[Formula: see text

Dynamic model predicting overweight, obesity, and extreme obesity prevalence trends.

PubMed

Thomas, Diana M; Weedermann, Marion; Fuemmeler, Bernard F; Martin, Corby K; Dhurandhar, Nikhil V; Bredlau, Carl; Heymsfield, Steven B; Ravussin, Eric; Bouchard, Claude

2014-02-01

Obesity prevalence in the United States appears to be leveling, but the reasons behind the plateau remain unknown. Mechanistic insights can be provided from a mathematical model. The objective of this study is to model known multiple population parameters associated with changes in body mass index (BMI) classes and to establish conditions under which obesity prevalence will plateau. A differential equation system was developed that predicts population-wide obesity prevalence trends. The model considers both social and nonsocial influences on weight gain, incorporates other known parameters affecting obesity trends, and allows for country specific population growth. The dynamic model predicts that: obesity prevalence is a function of birthrate and the probability of being born in an obesogenic environment; obesity prevalence will plateau independent of current prevention strategies; and the US prevalence of overweight, obesity, and extreme obesity will plateau by about 2030 at 28%, 32%, and 9% respectively. The US prevalence of obesity is stabilizing and will plateau, independent of current preventative strategies. This trend has important implications in accurately evaluating the impact of various anti-obesity strategies aimed at reducing obesity prevalence. Copyright © 2013 The Obesity Society.

Selective Population of Edge States in a 2D Topological Band System.

PubMed

Galilo, Bogdan; Lee, Derek K K; Barnett, Ryan

2015-12-11

We consider a system of interacting spin-one atoms in a hexagonal lattice under the presence of a synthetic gauge field. Quenching the quadratic Zeeman field is shown to lead to a dynamical instability of the edge modes. This, in turn, leads to a spin current along the boundary of the system which grows exponentially fast in time following the quench. Tuning the magnitude of the quench can be used to selectively populate edge modes of different momenta. Implications of the intrinsic symmetries of the Hamiltonian on the dynamics are discussed. The results hold for atoms with both antiferromagnetic and ferromagnetic interactions.

Allee effects and the spatial dynamics of a locally endangered butterfly, the high brown fritillary (Argynnis adippe).

PubMed

Bonsall, Michael B; Dooley, Claire A; Kasparson, Anna; Brereton, Tom; Roy, David B; Thomas, Jeremy A

2014-01-01

Conservation of endangered species necessitates a full appreciation of the ecological processes affecting the regulation, limitation, and persistence of populations. These processes are influenced by birth, death, and dispersal events, and characterizing them requires careful accounting of both the deterministic and stochastic processes operating at both local and regional population levels. We combined ecological theory and observations on Allee effects by linking mathematical analysis and the spatial and temporal population dynamics patterns of a highly endangered butterfly, the high brown fritillary, Argynnis adippe. Our theoretical analysis showed that the role of density-dependent feedbacks in the presence of local immigration can influence the strength of Allee effects. Linking this theory to the analysis of the population data revealed strong evidence for both negative density dependence and Allee effects at the landscape or regional scale. These regional dynamics are predicted to be highly influenced by immigration. Using a Bayesian state-space approach, we characterized the local-scale births, deaths, and dispersal effects together with measurement and process uncertainty in the metapopulation. Some form of an Allee effect influenced almost three-quarters of these local populations. Our joint analysis of the deterministic and stochastic dynamics suggests that a conservation priority for this species would be to increase resource availability in currently occupied and, more importantly, in unoccupied sites.

Validating Prehistoric and Current Social Phenomena Upon the Landscape of the Peten, Guatemala

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sever, Thomas L.

1997-01-01

The Peten, once inhabited by a population of several million before the collapse of the ancient Maya in the 10th and 11th centuries, is being repopulated toward its former demographic peak. Environmental dynamics, however, impose severe constraints to further development. Current practices in subsistence, commercial agriculture, and cattle raising are causing rapid deforestation on a scale that can only result in soil loss and regional degradation. In view of the current deforestation trends, the question emerges as to how millions of ancient Maya lived successfully in the area for centuries when relatively fewer occupants today threaten the sustainability of the landscape with current agricultural practices. The use of remote sensing technology is a cost-effective methodology for addressing issues in Maya archeology as well as monitoring the environmental impacts being experienced by the current population.

The Ancient Maya Landscape from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sever, T.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

1999-01-01

The Peten, once inhabited by a population of several million before the collapse of the ancient Maya in the 10th and 11th centuries, is being repopulated toward its former demographic peak. Environmental dynamics, however, impose severe constraints to further development. Current practices in subsistence, commercial agriculture, and cattle raising are causing rapid deforestation resulting in the destruction of environmental and archeological resources. The use of remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology is a cost-effective methodology for addressing issues in Maya archeology as well as monitoring the environmental impacts being experienced by the current population.

Comparison of the dynamics of neural interactions between current-based and conductance-based integrate-and-fire recurrent networks

PubMed Central

Cavallari, Stefano; Panzeri, Stefano; Mazzoni, Alberto

2014-01-01

Models of networks of Leaky Integrate-and-Fire (LIF) neurons are a widely used tool for theoretical investigations of brain function. These models have been used both with current- and conductance-based synapses. However, the differences in the dynamics expressed by these two approaches have been so far mainly studied at the single neuron level. To investigate how these synaptic models affect network activity, we compared the single neuron and neural population dynamics of conductance-based networks (COBNs) and current-based networks (CUBNs) of LIF neurons. These networks were endowed with sparse excitatory and inhibitory recurrent connections, and were tested in conditions including both low- and high-conductance states. We developed a novel procedure to obtain comparable networks by properly tuning the synaptic parameters not shared by the models. The so defined comparable networks displayed an excellent and robust match of first order statistics (average single neuron firing rates and average frequency spectrum of network activity). However, these comparable networks showed profound differences in the second order statistics of neural population interactions and in the modulation of these properties by external inputs. The correlation between inhibitory and excitatory synaptic currents and the cross-neuron correlation between synaptic inputs, membrane potentials and spike trains were stronger and more stimulus-modulated in the COBN. Because of these properties, the spike train correlation carried more information about the strength of the input in the COBN, although the firing rates were equally informative in both network models. Moreover, the network activity of COBN showed stronger synchronization in the gamma band, and spectral information about the input higher and spread over a broader range of frequencies. These results suggest that the second order statistics of network dynamics depend strongly on the choice of synaptic model. PMID:24634645

Comparison of the dynamics of neural interactions between current-based and conductance-based integrate-and-fire recurrent networks.

PubMed

Cavallari, Stefano; Panzeri, Stefano; Mazzoni, Alberto

2014-01-01

Models of networks of Leaky Integrate-and-Fire (LIF) neurons are a widely used tool for theoretical investigations of brain function. These models have been used both with current- and conductance-based synapses. However, the differences in the dynamics expressed by these two approaches have been so far mainly studied at the single neuron level. To investigate how these synaptic models affect network activity, we compared the single neuron and neural population dynamics of conductance-based networks (COBNs) and current-based networks (CUBNs) of LIF neurons. These networks were endowed with sparse excitatory and inhibitory recurrent connections, and were tested in conditions including both low- and high-conductance states. We developed a novel procedure to obtain comparable networks by properly tuning the synaptic parameters not shared by the models. The so defined comparable networks displayed an excellent and robust match of first order statistics (average single neuron firing rates and average frequency spectrum of network activity). However, these comparable networks showed profound differences in the second order statistics of neural population interactions and in the modulation of these properties by external inputs. The correlation between inhibitory and excitatory synaptic currents and the cross-neuron correlation between synaptic inputs, membrane potentials and spike trains were stronger and more stimulus-modulated in the COBN. Because of these properties, the spike train correlation carried more information about the strength of the input in the COBN, although the firing rates were equally informative in both network models. Moreover, the network activity of COBN showed stronger synchronization in the gamma band, and spectral information about the input higher and spread over a broader range of frequencies. These results suggest that the second order statistics of network dynamics depend strongly on the choice of synaptic model.

Spatial heterogeneity in the carrying capacity of sika deer in Japan.

PubMed

Iijima, Hayato; Ueno, Mayumi

2016-06-09

Carrying capacity is 1 driver of wildlife population dynamics. Although in previous studies carrying capacity was considered to be a fixed entity, it may differ among locations due to environmental variation. The factors underlying variability in carrying capacity, however, have rarely been examined. Here, we investigated spatial heterogeneity in the carrying capacity of Japanese sika deer ( Cervus nippon ) from 2005 to 2014 in Yamanashi Prefecture, central Japan (mesh with grid cells of 5.5×4.6 km) by state-space modeling. Both carrying capacity and density dependence differed greatly among cells. Estimated carrying capacities ranged from 1.34 to 98.4 deer/km 2 . According to estimated population dynamics, grid cells with larger proportions of artificial grassland and deciduous forest were subject to lower density dependence and higher carrying capacity. We conclude that population dynamics of ungulates may vary spatially through spatial variation in carrying capacity and that the density level for controlling ungulate abundance should be based on the current density level relative to the carrying capacity for each area.

Investigating large-scale brain dynamics using field potential recordings: analysis and interpretation.

PubMed

Pesaran, Bijan; Vinck, Martin; Einevoll, Gaute T; Sirota, Anton; Fries, Pascal; Siegel, Markus; Truccolo, Wilson; Schroeder, Charles E; Srinivasan, Ramesh

2018-06-25

New technologies to record electrical activity from the brain on a massive scale offer tremendous opportunities for discovery. Electrical measurements of large-scale brain dynamics, termed field potentials, are especially important to understanding and treating the human brain. Here, our goal is to provide best practices on how field potential recordings (electroencephalograms, magnetoencephalograms, electrocorticograms and local field potentials) can be analyzed to identify large-scale brain dynamics, and to highlight critical issues and limitations of interpretation in current work. We focus our discussion of analyses around the broad themes of activation, correlation, communication and coding. We provide recommendations for interpreting the data using forward and inverse models. The forward model describes how field potentials are generated by the activity of populations of neurons. The inverse model describes how to infer the activity of populations of neurons from field potential recordings. A recurring theme is the challenge of understanding how field potentials reflect neuronal population activity given the complexity of the underlying brain systems.

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

PubMed

Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

2016-06-01

The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current predictions based on mean temperature anomalies are relatively conservative and it is better to apply stochastic tools to resolve complex responses to climate change while taking natural variability into account. In summary, we propose a modeling framework capable of determining distinct intra-annual temperature patterns leading to large or small population sizes, for pest risk assessment and management planning of both natural and agricultural ecosystems.

Killer whale nuclear genome and mtDNA reveal widespread population bottleneck during the last glacial maximum.

PubMed

Moura, Andre E; Janse van Rensburg, Charlene; Pilot, Malgorzata; Tehrani, Arman; Best, Peter B; Thornton, Meredith; Plön, Stephanie; de Bruyn, P J Nico; Worley, Kim C; Gibbs, Richard A; Dahlheim, Marilyn E; Hoelzel, Alan Rus

2014-05-01

Ecosystem function and resilience is determined by the interactions and independent contributions of individual species. Apex predators play a disproportionately determinant role through their influence and dependence on the dynamics of prey species. Their demographic fluctuations are thus likely to reflect changes in their respective ecological communities and habitat. Here, we investigate the historical population dynamics of the killer whale based on draft nuclear genome data for the Northern Hemisphere and mtDNA data worldwide. We infer a relatively stable population size throughout most of the Pleistocene, followed by an order of magnitude decline and bottleneck during the Weichselian glacial period. Global mtDNA data indicate that while most populations declined, at least one population retained diversity in a stable, productive ecosystem off southern Africa. We conclude that environmental changes during the last glacial period promoted the decline of a top ocean predator, that these events contributed to the pattern of diversity among extant populations, and that the relatively high diversity of a population currently in productive, stable habitat off South Africa suggests a role for ocean productivity in the widespread decline.

History-dependent dissipative vortex dynamics in superconducting arrays

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Durkin, Malcolm; Mondragon-Shem, Ian; Eley, Serena Merteen

In this study, we perform current (I)-voltage (V) measurements on low resistance superconductor-normal-superconductor arrays in finite magnetic fields, focusing on the dilute vortex population regime. We observe significant deviations from predicted behavior, notably the absence of a differential resistance peak near the vortex depinning current, and a broad linear I-V region with an extrapolated I intercept equal to the depinning current. Comparing these results to an overdamped molecular vortex model, we find that this behavior can be explained by the presence of a history-dependent dissipative force. Lastly, this approach has not been considered previously, to our knowledge, yet it ismore » crucial for obtaining a correct description of the vortex dynamics in superconducting arrays.« less

History-dependent dissipative vortex dynamics in superconducting arrays

DOE PAGES

Durkin, Malcolm; Mondragon-Shem, Ian; Eley, Serena Merteen; ...

2016-07-14

In this study, we perform current (I)-voltage (V) measurements on low resistance superconductor-normal-superconductor arrays in finite magnetic fields, focusing on the dilute vortex population regime. We observe significant deviations from predicted behavior, notably the absence of a differential resistance peak near the vortex depinning current, and a broad linear I-V region with an extrapolated I intercept equal to the depinning current. Comparing these results to an overdamped molecular vortex model, we find that this behavior can be explained by the presence of a history-dependent dissipative force. Lastly, this approach has not been considered previously, to our knowledge, yet it ismore » crucial for obtaining a correct description of the vortex dynamics in superconducting arrays.« less

A method for the dynamic management of genetic variability in dairy cattle

PubMed Central

Colleau, Jean-Jacques; Moureaux, Sophie; Briend, Michèle; Bechu, Jérôme

2004-01-01

According to the general approach developed in this paper, dynamic management of genetic variability in selected populations of dairy cattle is carried out for three simultaneous purposes: procreation of young bulls to be further progeny-tested, use of service bulls already selected and approval of recently progeny-tested bulls for use. At each step, the objective is to minimize the average pairwise relationship coefficient in the future population born from programmed matings and the existing population. As a common constraint, the average estimated breeding value of the new population, for a selection goal including many important traits, is set to a desired value. For the procreation of young bulls, breeding costs are additionally constrained. Optimization is fully analytical and directly considers matings. Corresponding algorithms are presented in detail. The efficiency of these procedures was tested on the current Norman population. Comparisons between optimized and real matings, clearly showed that optimization would have saved substantial genetic variability without reducing short-term genetic gains. PMID:15231230

Threshold Dynamics of a Temperature-Dependent Stage-Structured Mosquito Population Model with Nested Delays.

PubMed

Wang, Xiunan; Zou, Xingfu

2018-05-21

Mosquito-borne diseases remain a significant threat to public health and economics. Since mosquitoes are quite sensitive to temperature, global warming may not only worsen the disease transmission case in current endemic areas but also facilitate mosquito population together with pathogens to establish in new regions. Therefore, understanding mosquito population dynamics under the impact of temperature is considerably important for making disease control policies. In this paper, we develop a stage-structured mosquito population model in the environment of a temperature-controlled experiment. The model turns out to be a system of periodic delay differential equations with periodic delays. We show that the basic reproduction number is a threshold parameter which determines whether the mosquito population goes to extinction or remains persistent. We then estimate the parameter values for Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that transmits dengue virus. We verify the analytic result by numerical simulations with the temperature data of Colombo, Sri Lanka where a dengue outbreak occurred in 2017.

Contemporary Play Therapy: Theory, Research, and Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schaefer, Charles E., Ed.; Gerard Kaduson, Heidi, Ed.

2006-01-01

This highly practical book presents current developments in play therapy, including innovative applications for particular problems and populations. Contributors first discuss the latest ideas and techniques emerging from object-relations, experiential, dynamic, and narrative perspectives. Next, research evaluating the effectiveness of play…

Deterministic processes guide long-term synchronised population dynamics in replicate anaerobic digesters

PubMed Central

Vanwonterghem, Inka; Jensen, Paul D; Dennis, Paul G; Hugenholtz, Philip; Rabaey, Korneel; Tyson, Gene W

2014-01-01

A replicate long-term experiment was conducted using anaerobic digestion (AD) as a model process to determine the relative role of niche and neutral theory on microbial community assembly, and to link community dynamics to system performance. AD is performed by a complex network of microorganisms and process stability relies entirely on the synergistic interactions between populations belonging to different functional guilds. In this study, three independent replicate anaerobic digesters were seeded with the same diverse inoculum, supplied with a model substrate, α-cellulose, and operated for 362 days at a 10-day hydraulic residence time under mesophilic conditions. Selective pressure imposed by the operational conditions and model substrate caused large reproducible changes in community composition including an overall decrease in richness in the first month of operation, followed by synchronised population dynamics that correlated with changes in reactor performance. This included the synchronised emergence and decline of distinct Ruminococcus phylotypes at day 148, and emergence of a Clostridium and Methanosaeta phylotype at day 178, when performance became stable in all reactors. These data suggest that many dynamic functional niches are predictably filled by phylogenetically coherent populations over long time scales. Neutral theory would predict that a complex community with a high degree of recognised functional redundancy would lead to stochastic changes in populations and community divergence over time. We conclude that deterministic processes may play a larger role in microbial community dynamics than currently appreciated, and under controlled conditions it may be possible to reliably predict community structural and functional changes over time. PMID:24739627

Dispersal of Mycobacterium tuberculosis via the Canadian fur trade

PubMed Central

Pepperell, Caitlin S.; Granka, Julie M.; Alexander, David C.; Behr, Marcel A.; Chui, Linda; Gordon, Janet; Guthrie, Jennifer L.; Jamieson, Frances B.; Langlois-Klassen, Deanne; Long, Richard; Nguyen, Dao; Wobeser, Wendy; Feldman, Marcus W.

2011-01-01

Patterns of gene flow can have marked effects on the evolution of populations. To better understand the migration dynamics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, we studied genetic data from European M. tuberculosis lineages currently circulating in Aboriginal and French Canadian communities. A single M. tuberculosis lineage, characterized by the DS6Quebec genomic deletion, is at highest frequency among Aboriginal populations in Ontario, Saskatchewan, and Alberta; this bacterial lineage is also dominant among tuberculosis (TB) cases in French Canadians resident in Quebec. Substantial contact between these human populations is limited to a specific historical era (1710–1870), during which individuals from these populations met to barter furs. Statistical analyses of extant M. tuberculosis minisatellite data are consistent with Quebec as a source population for M. tuberculosis gene flow into Aboriginal populations during the fur trade era. Historical and genetic analyses suggest that tiny M. tuberculosis populations persisted for ∼100 y among indigenous populations and subsequently expanded in the late 19th century after environmental changes favoring the pathogen. Our study suggests that spread of TB can occur by two asynchronous processes: (i) dispersal of M. tuberculosis by minimal numbers of human migrants, during which small pathogen populations are sustained by ongoing migration and slow disease dynamics, and (ii) expansion of the M. tuberculosis population facilitated by shifts in host ecology. If generalizable, these migration dynamics can help explain the low DNA sequence diversity observed among isolates of M. tuberculosis and the difficulties in global elimination of tuberculosis, as small, widely dispersed pathogen populations are difficult both to detect and to eradicate. PMID:21464295

A computational framework for testing arrhythmia marker sensitivities to model parameters in functionally calibrated populations of atrial cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vagos, Márcia R.; Arevalo, Hermenegild; de Oliveira, Bernardo Lino; Sundnes, Joakim; Maleckar, Mary M.

2017-09-01

Models of cardiac cell electrophysiology are complex non-linear systems which can be used to gain insight into mechanisms of cardiac dynamics in both healthy and pathological conditions. However, the complexity of cardiac models can make mechanistic insight difficult. Moreover, these are typically fitted to averaged experimental data which do not incorporate the variability in observations. Recently, building populations of models to incorporate inter- and intra-subject variability in simulations has been combined with sensitivity analysis (SA) to uncover novel ionic mechanisms and potentially clarify arrhythmogenic behaviors. We used the Koivumäki human atrial cell model to create two populations, representing normal Sinus Rhythm (nSR) and chronic Atrial Fibrillation (cAF), by varying 22 key model parameters. In each population, 14 biomarkers related to the action potential and dynamic restitution were extracted. Populations were calibrated based on distributions of biomarkers to obtain reasonable physiological behavior, and subjected to SA to quantify correlations between model parameters and pro-arrhythmia markers. The two populations showed distinct behaviors under steady state and dynamic pacing. The nSR population revealed greater variability, and more unstable dynamic restitution, as compared to the cAF population, suggesting that simulated cAF remodeling rendered cells more stable to parameter variation and rate adaptation. SA revealed that the biomarkers depended mainly on five ionic currents, with noted differences in sensitivities to these between nSR and cAF. Also, parameters could be selected to produce a model variant with no alternans and unaltered action potential morphology, highlighting that unstable dynamical behavior may be driven by specific cell parameter settings. These results ultimately suggest that arrhythmia maintenance in cAF may not be due to instability in cell membrane excitability, but rather due to tissue-level effects which promote initiation and maintenance of reentrant arrhythmia.

Plasma dynamics on current-carrying magnetic flux tubes. II - Low potential simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swift, Daniel W.

1992-01-01

The evolution of plasma in a current-carrying magnetic flux tube of variable cross section is investigated using a one-dimensional numerical simulation. The flux tube is narrow at the two ends and broad in the middle. The middle part of the flux tube is loaded with a hot, magnetically trapped population, and the two ends have a more dense, gravitationally bound population. A potential difference larger than the gravitational potential but less than the energy of the hot population is applied across the domain. The general result is that the potential change becomes distributed along the anode half of the domain, with negligible potential change on the cathode half. The potential is supported by the mirror force of magnetically trapped particles. The simulations show a steady depletion of plasma on the anode side of the flux tube. The current steadily decreases on a time scale of an ion transit time. The results may provide an explanation for the observed plasma depletions on auroral field lines carrying upward currents.

Currents and Associated Electron Scattering and Bouncing Near the Diffusion Region at Earth's Magnetopause

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lavraud, B.; Zhang, Y. C.; Vernisse, Y.; Gershman, D. J.; Dorelli, J.; Cassak, P. A.; Dargent, J.; Pollock, C.; Giles, B.; Aunai, N.;

Modelling the dynamics of feral alfalfa populations and its management implications.

PubMed

Bagavathiannan, Muthukumar V; Begg, Graham S; Gulden, Robert H; Van Acker, Rene C

2012-01-01

Feral populations of cultivated crops can pose challenges to novel trait confinement within agricultural landscapes. Simulation models can be helpful in investigating the underlying dynamics of feral populations and determining suitable management options. We developed a stage-structured matrix population model for roadside feral alfalfa populations occurring in southern Manitoba, Canada. The model accounted for the existence of density-dependence and recruitment subsidy in feral populations. We used the model to investigate the long-term dynamics of feral alfalfa populations, and to evaluate the effectiveness of simulated management strategies such as herbicide application and mowing in controlling feral alfalfa. Results suggest that alfalfa populations occurring in roadside habitats can be persistent and less likely to go extinct under current roadverge management scenarios. Management attempts focused on controlling adult plants alone can be counterproductive due to the presence of density-dependent effects. Targeted herbicide application, which can achieve complete control of seedlings, rosettes and established plants, will be an effective strategy, but the seedbank population may contribute to new recruits. In regions where roadside mowing is regularly practiced, devising a timely mowing strategy (early- to mid-August for southern Manitoba), one that can totally prevent seed production, will be a feasible option for managing feral alfalfa populations. Feral alfalfa populations can be persistent in roadside habitats. Timely mowing or regular targeted herbicide application will be effective in managing feral alfalfa populations and limit feral-population-mediated gene flow in alfalfa. However, in the context of novel trait confinement, the extent to which feral alfalfa populations need to be managed will be dictated by the tolerance levels established by specific production systems for specific traits. The modelling framework outlined in this paper could be applied to other perennial herbaceous plants with similar life-history characteristics.

Evolutionary game theory for physical and biological scientists. II. Population dynamics equations can be associated with interpretations

PubMed Central

Liao, David; Tlsty, Thea D.

2014-01-01

The use of mathematical equations to analyse population dynamics measurements is being increasingly applied to elucidate complex dynamic processes in biological systems, including cancer. Purely ‘empirical’ equations may provide sufficient accuracy to support predictions and therapy design. Nevertheless, interpretation of fitting equations in terms of physical and biological propositions can provide additional insights that can be used both to refine models that prove inconsistent with data and to understand the scope of applicability of models that validate. The purpose of this tutorial is to assist readers in mathematically associating interpretations with equations and to provide guidance in choosing interpretations and experimental systems to investigate based on currently available biological knowledge, techniques in mathematical and computational analysis and methods for in vitro and in vivo experiments. PMID:25097752

Scaling rules for the final decline to extinction

PubMed Central

Griffen, Blaine D.; Drake, John M.

2009-01-01

Space–time scaling rules are ubiquitous in ecological phenomena. Current theory postulates three scaling rules that describe the duration of a population's final decline to extinction, although these predictions have not previously been empirically confirmed. We examine these scaling rules across a broader set of conditions, including a wide range of density-dependent patterns in the underlying population dynamics. We then report on tests of these predictions from experiments using the cladoceran Daphnia magna as a model. Our results support two predictions that: (i) the duration of population persistence is much greater than the duration of the final decline to extinction and (ii) the duration of the final decline to extinction increases with the logarithm of the population's estimated carrying capacity. However, our results do not support a third prediction that the duration of the final decline scales inversely with population growth rate. These findings not only support the current standard theory of population extinction but also introduce new empirical anomalies awaiting a theoretical explanation. PMID:19141422

Dynamical evolution of V-type photometric candidates in the central and outer main belt asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carruba, V.; Huaman, M.

2014-07-01

V-type asteroids are associated with basaltic composition, and are supposed to be fragments of crust of differentiated objects. Most V-type asteroids in the main belt are found in the inner main belt, and are either current members of the Vesta dynamical family (Vestoids), or past members that drifted away. However, several V-type photometric candidates have been recently identified in the central and outer main belt. The origin of this large population of V-type objects is not well understood, since it seems unlikely that Vestoids crossing the 3:1 and 5:2 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter could account for the whole observed population. In this work, we investigated a possible origin of the bodies from local sources, such as the parent bodies of the Eunomia, Merxia, and Agnia asteroid families in the central main belt, and Dembowska, Eos and Magnya asteroid families in the outer main belt. Our results show that dynamical evolution from the parent bodies of the Eunomia and Merxia/Agnia families on timescales of 2 Gyr or more could be responsible for the current orbital location of most of the V-type photometric candidates in the central main belt. Studies for the outer main belt are currently in progress. by the FAPESP (grant 2011/19863-3) and CAPES (grant 15029-12-3) funding agencies.

Evaluating mortality rates with a novel integrated framework for nonmonogamous species.

PubMed

Tenan, Simone; Iemma, Aaron; Bragalanti, Natalia; Pedrini, Paolo; De Barba, Marta; Randi, Ettore; Groff, Claudio; Genovart, Meritxell

2016-12-01

The conservation of wildlife requires management based on quantitative evidence, and especially for large carnivores, unraveling cause-specific mortalities and understanding their impact on population dynamics is crucial. Acquiring this knowledge is challenging because it is difficult to obtain robust long-term data sets on endangered populations and, usually, data are collected through diverse sampling strategies. Integrated population models (IPMs) offer a way to integrate data generated through different processes. However, IPMs are female-based models that cannot account for mate availability, and this feature limits their applicability to monogamous species only. We extended classical IPMs to a two-sex framework that allows investigation of population dynamics and quantification of cause-specific mortality rates in nonmonogamous species. We illustrated our approach by simultaneously modeling different types of data from a reintroduced, unhunted brown bear (Ursus arctos) population living in an area with a dense human population. In a population mainly driven by adult survival, we estimated that on average 11% of cubs and 61% of adults died from human-related causes. Although the population is currently not at risk, adult survival and thus population dynamics are driven by anthropogenic mortality. Given the recent increase of human-bear conflicts in the area, removal of individuals for management purposes and through poaching may increase, reversing the positive population growth rate. Our approach can be generalized to other species affected by cause-specific mortality and will be useful to inform conservation decisions for other nonmonogamous species, such as most large carnivores, for which data are scarce and diverse and thus data integration is highly desirable. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

The Storm Time Ring Current Dynamics and Response to CMEs and CIRs Using Van Allen Probes Observations and CIMI Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bingham, S.; Mouikis, C.; Kistler, L. M.; Fok, M. C. H.; Glocer, A.; Farrugia, C. J.; Gkioulidou, M.; Spence, H. E.

2016-12-01

The ring current responds differently to the different solar and interplanetary storm drivers such as coronal mass injections, (CMEs), and co-rotating interaction regions (CIRs). Delineating the differences in the ring current development between these two drivers will aid our understanding of the ring current dynamics. Using Van Allen Probes observations, we develop an empirical ring current model of the ring current pressure, the pressure anisotropy and the current density development during the storm phases for both types of storm drivers and for all MLTs inside L 6. In addition, we identify the populations (energy and species) responsible. We find that during the storm main phase and the early recovery phase the plasma sheet particles (10-80 keV) convecting from the nightside contribute the most on the ring current pressure and current density. However, during these phases, the main difference between CMEs and CIRs is in the O+ contribution. This empirical model is compared to the results of CIMI simulations of CMEs and CIRs where the model input is comprised of the superposed epoch solar wind conditions of the storms that comprise the empirical model, while different inner magnetosphere boundary conditions will be tested in order to match the empirical model results. Comparing the model and simulation results will fill our understanding of the ring current dynamics as part of the highly coupled inner magnetosphere system.

Population dynamics of American horseshoe crabs-historic climatic events and recent anthropogenic pressures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faurby, S.; King, T.L.; Obst, M.; Hallerman, E.M.; Pertoldi, C.; Funch, P.

2010-01-01

Populations of the American horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, have declined, but neither the causes nor the magnitude are fully understood. In order to evaluate historic demography, variation at 12 microsatellite DNA loci surveyed in 1218 L. polyphemus sampled from 28 localities was analysed with Bayesian coalescent-based methods. The analysis showed strong declines in population sizes throughout the species' distribution except in the geographically isolated southern-most population in Mexico, where a strong increase in population size was inferred. Analyses suggested that demographic changes in the core of the distribution occurred in association with the recolonization after the Ice Age and also by anthropogenic effects, such as the past overharvest of the species for fertilizer or the current use of the animals as bait for American eel (Anguilla rostrata) and whelk (Busycon spp.) fisheries. This study highlights the importance of considering both climatic changes and anthropogenic effects in efforts to understand population dynamics-a topic which is highly relevant in the ongoing assessments of the effects of climate change and overharvest. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Population dynamics of American horseshoe crabs--historic climatic events and recent anthropogenic pressures.

PubMed

Faurby, Søren; King, Tim L; Obst, Matthias; Hallerman, Eric M; Pertoldi, Cino; Funch, Peter

2010-08-01

Populations of the American horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, have declined, but neither the causes nor the magnitude are fully understood. In order to evaluate historic demography, variation at 12 microsatellite DNA loci surveyed in 1218 L. polyphemus sampled from 28 localities was analysed with Bayesian coalescent-based methods. The analysis showed strong declines in population sizes throughout the species' distribution except in the geographically isolated southern-most population in Mexico, where a strong increase in population size was inferred. Analyses suggested that demographic changes in the core of the distribution occurred in association with the recolonization after the Ice Age and also by anthropogenic effects, such as the past overharvest of the species for fertilizer or the current use of the animals as bait for American eel (Anguilla rostrata) and whelk (Busycon spp.) fisheries. This study highlights the importance of considering both climatic changes and anthropogenic effects in efforts to understand population dynamics--a topic which is highly relevant in the ongoing assessments of the effects of climate change and overharvest.

Continuous and discrete extreme climatic events affecting the dynamics of a high-arctic reindeer population.

PubMed

Chan, Kung-Sik; Mysterud, Atle; Øritsland, Nils Are; Severinsen, Torbjørn; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2005-10-01

Climate at northern latitudes are currently changing both with regard to the mean and the temporal variability at any given site, increasing the frequency of extreme events such as cold and warm spells. Here we use a conceptually new modelling approach with two different dynamic terms of the climatic effects on a Svalbard reindeer population (the Brøggerhalvøya population) which underwent an extreme icing event ("locked pastures") with 80% reduction in population size during one winter (1993/94). One term captures the continuous and linear effect depending upon the Arctic Oscillation and another the discrete (rare) "event" process. The introduction of an "event" parameter describing the discrete extreme winter resulted in a more parsimonious model. Such an approach may be useful in strongly age-structured ungulate populations, with young and very old individuals being particularly prone to mortality factors during adverse conditions (resulting in a population structure that differs before and after extreme climatic events). A simulation study demonstrates that our approach is able to properly detect the ecological effects of such extreme climate events.

Quench dynamics in superconducting nanojunctions: Metastability and dynamical Yang-Lee zeros

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souto, R. Seoane; Martín-Rodero, A.; Yeyati, A. Levy

2017-10-01

We study the charge transfer dynamics following the formation of a phase or voltage biased superconducting nanojunction using a full counting statistics analysis. We demonstrate that the evolution of the zeros of the generating function allows one to identify the population of different many body states much in the same way as the accumulation of Yang-Lee zeros of the partition function in equilibrium statistical mechanics is connected to phase transitions. We give an exact expression connecting the dynamical zeros to the charge transfer cumulants and discuss when an approximation based on "dominant" zeros is valid. We show that, for generic values of the parameters, the system gets trapped into a metastable state characterized by a nonequilibrium population of the many body states which is dependent on the initial conditions. We study in particular the effect of the switching rates in the dynamics showing that, in contrast to intuition, the deviation from thermal equilibrium increases for the slower rates. In the voltage biased case the steady state is reached independent of the initial conditions. Our method allows us to obtain accurate results for the steady state current and noise in quantitative agreement with steady state methods developed to describe the multiple Andreev reflections regime. Finally, we discuss the system dynamics after a sudden voltage drop showing the possibility of tuning the many body states population by an appropriate choice of the initial voltage, providing a feasible experimental way to access the quench dynamics and control the state of the system.

Pre-Whaling Genetic Diversity and Population Ecology in Eastern Pacific Gray Whales: Insights from Ancient DNA and Stable Isotopes

PubMed Central

Alter, S. Elizabeth; Newsome, Seth D.; Palumbi, Stephen R.

2012-01-01

Commercial whaling decimated many whale populations, including the eastern Pacific gray whale, but little is known about how population dynamics or ecology differed prior to these removals. Of particular interest is the possibility of a large population decline prior to whaling, as such a decline could explain the ∼5-fold difference between genetic estimates of prior abundance and estimates based on historical records. We analyzed genetic (mitochondrial control region) and isotopic information from modern and prehistoric gray whales using serial coalescent simulations and Bayesian skyline analyses to test for a pre-whaling decline and to examine prehistoric genetic diversity, population dynamics and ecology. Simulations demonstrate that significant genetic differences observed between ancient and modern samples could be caused by a large, recent population bottleneck, roughly concurrent with commercial whaling. Stable isotopes show minimal differences between modern and ancient gray whale foraging ecology. Using rejection-based Approximate Bayesian Computation, we estimate the size of the population bottleneck at its minimum abundance and the pre-bottleneck abundance. Our results agree with previous genetic studies suggesting the historical size of the eastern gray whale population was roughly three to five times its current size. PMID:22590499

Bayesian Inference on the Effect of Density Dependence and Weather on a Guanaco Population from Chile

PubMed Central

Zubillaga, María; Skewes, Oscar; Soto, Nicolás; Rabinovich, Jorge E.; Colchero, Fernando

2014-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms that drive population dynamics is fundamental for management of wild populations. The guanaco (Lama guanicoe) is one of two wild camelid species in South America. We evaluated the effects of density dependence and weather variables on population regulation based on a time series of 36 years of population sampling of guanacos in Tierra del Fuego, Chile. The population density varied between 2.7 and 30.7 guanaco/km2, with an apparent monotonic growth during the first 25 years; however, in the last 10 years the population has shown large fluctuations, suggesting that it might have reached its carrying capacity. We used a Bayesian state-space framework and model selection to determine the effect of density and environmental variables on guanaco population dynamics. Our results show that the population is under density dependent regulation and that it is currently fluctuating around an average carrying capacity of 45,000 guanacos. We also found a significant positive effect of previous winter temperature while sheep density has a strong negative effect on the guanaco population growth. We conclude that there are significant density dependent processes and that climate as well as competition with domestic species have important effects determining the population size of guanacos, with important implications for management and conservation. PMID:25514510

Bayesian inference on the effect of density dependence and weather on a guanaco population from Chile.

PubMed

Zubillaga, María; Skewes, Oscar; Soto, Nicolás; Rabinovich, Jorge E; Colchero, Fernando

2014-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms that drive population dynamics is fundamental for management of wild populations. The guanaco (Lama guanicoe) is one of two wild camelid species in South America. We evaluated the effects of density dependence and weather variables on population regulation based on a time series of 36 years of population sampling of guanacos in Tierra del Fuego, Chile. The population density varied between 2.7 and 30.7 guanaco/km2, with an apparent monotonic growth during the first 25 years; however, in the last 10 years the population has shown large fluctuations, suggesting that it might have reached its carrying capacity. We used a Bayesian state-space framework and model selection to determine the effect of density and environmental variables on guanaco population dynamics. Our results show that the population is under density dependent regulation and that it is currently fluctuating around an average carrying capacity of 45,000 guanacos. We also found a significant positive effect of previous winter temperature while sheep density has a strong negative effect on the guanaco population growth. We conclude that there are significant density dependent processes and that climate as well as competition with domestic species have important effects determining the population size of guanacos, with important implications for management and conservation.

Bayesian Modeling of Prion Disease Dynamics in Mule Deer Using Population Monitoring and Capture-Recapture Data

PubMed Central

Geremia, Chris; Miller, Michael W.; Hoeting, Jennifer A.; Antolin, Michael F.; Hobbs, N. Thompson

2015-01-01

Epidemics of chronic wasting disease (CWD) of North American Cervidae have potential to harm ecosystems and economies. We studied a migratory population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) affected by CWD for at least three decades using a Bayesian framework to integrate matrix population and disease models with long-term monitoring data and detailed process-level studies. We hypothesized CWD prevalence would be stable or increase between two observation periods during the late 1990s and after 2010, with higher CWD prevalence making deer population decline more likely. The weight of evidence suggested a reduction in the CWD outbreak over time, perhaps in response to intervening harvest-mediated population reductions. Disease effects on deer population growth under current conditions were subtle with a 72% chance that CWD depressed population growth. With CWD, we forecasted a growth rate near one and largely stable deer population. Disease effects appear to be moderated by timing of infection, prolonged disease course, and locally variable infection. Long-term outcomes will depend heavily on whether current conditions hold and high prevalence remains a localized phenomenon. PMID:26509806

Recent Demographic History and Present Fine-Scale Structure in the Northwest Atlantic Leatherback (Dermochelys coriacea) Turtle Population

PubMed Central

Molfetti, Érica; Torres Vilaça, Sibelle; Georges, Jean-Yves; Plot, Virginie; Delcroix, Eric; Le Scao, Rozen; Lavergne, Anne; Barrioz, Sébastien; dos Santos, Fabrício Rodrigues; de Thoisy, Benoît

2013-01-01

The leatherback turtle Dermochelys coriacea is the most widely distributed sea turtle species in the world. It exhibits complex life traits: female homing and migration, migrations of juveniles and males that remain poorly known, and a strong climatic influence on resources, breeding success and sex-ratio. It is consequently challenging to understand population dynamics. Leatherbacks are critically endangered, yet the group from the Northwest Atlantic is currently considered to be under lower risk than other populations while hosting some of the largest rookeries. Here, we investigated the genetic diversity and the demographic history of contrasted rookeries from this group, namely two large nesting populations in French Guiana, and a smaller one in the French West Indies. We used 10 microsatellite loci, of which four are newly isolated, and mitochondrial DNA sequences of the control region and cytochrome b. Both mitochondrial and nuclear markers revealed that the Northwest Atlantic stock of leatherbacks derives from a single ancestral origin, but show current genetic structuration at the scale of nesting sites, with the maintenance of migrants amongst rookeries. Low nuclear genetic diversities are related to founder effects that followed consequent bottlenecks during the late Pleistocene/Holocene. Most probably in response to climatic oscillations, with a possible influence of early human hunting, female effective population sizes collapsed from 2 million to 200. Evidence of founder effects and high numbers of migrants make it possible to reconsider the population dynamics of the species, formerly considered as a metapopulation model: we propose a more relaxed island model, which we expect to be a key element in the currently observed recovering of populations. Although these Northwest Atlantic rookeries should be considered as a single evolutionary unit, we stress that local conservation efforts remain necessary since each nesting site hosts part of the genetic diversity and species history. PMID:23516429

Dynamic health policies for controlling the spread of emerging infections: influenza as an example.

PubMed

Yaesoubi, Reza; Cohen, Ted

2011-01-01

The recent appearance and spread of novel infectious pathogens provide motivation for using models as tools to guide public health decision-making. Here we describe a modeling approach for developing dynamic health policies that allow for adaptive decision-making as new data become available during an epidemic. In contrast to static health policies which have generally been selected by comparing the performance of a limited number of pre-determined sequences of interventions within simulation or mathematical models, dynamic health policies produce "real-time" recommendations for the choice of the best current intervention based on the observable state of the epidemic. Using cumulative real-time data for disease spread coupled with current information about resource availability, these policies provide recommendations for interventions that optimally utilize available resources to preserve the overall health of the population. We illustrate the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control of a novel strain of influenza, where we assume that two types of intervention may be available during the epidemic: (1) vaccines and antiviral drugs, and (2) transmission reducing measures, such as social distancing or mask use, that may be turned "on" or "off" repeatedly during the course of epidemic. In this example, the optimal dynamic health policy maximizes the overall population's health during the epidemic by specifying at any point of time, based on observable conditions, (1) the number of individuals to vaccinate if vaccines are available, and (2) whether the transmission-reducing intervention should be either employed or removed.

Population Dynamics of an Insect Herbivore over 32 Years are Driven by Precipitation and Host-Plant Effects: Testing Model Predictions.

PubMed

Price, Peter W; Hunter, Mark D

2015-06-01

The interaction between the arroyo willow, Salix lasiolepis Bentham, and its specialist herbivore, the arroyo willow stem-galling sawfly, Euura lasiolepis Smith (Hymenoptera: Tenthredinidae), was studied for 32 yr in Flagstaff, AZ, emphasizing a mechanistic understanding of insect population dynamics. Long-term weather records were evaluated to provide a climatic context for this study. Previously, predictive models of sawfly dynamics were developed from estimates of sawfly gall density made between 1981 and 2002; one model each for drier and wetter sites. Predictor variables in these models included winter precipitation and the Palmer Drought Severity Index, which impact the willow growth, with strong bottom-up effects on sawflies. We now evaluate original model predictions of sawfly population dynamics using new data (from 2003-2012). Additionally, willow resources were evaluated in 1986 and in 2012, using as criteria clone area, shoot density, and shoot length. The dry site model accounted for 40% of gall population density variation between 2003 and 2012 (69% over the 32 yr), providing strong support for the bottom-up, mechanistic hypothesis that water supply to willow hosts impacts sawfly populations. The current drying trend stressed willow clones: in drier sites, willow resources declined and gall density decreased by 98%. The wet site model accounted for 23% of variation in gall population density between 2003 and 2012 (48% over 30 yr), consistent with less water limitation. Nonetheless, gall populations were reduced by 72%. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Ecological constraints influence the emergence of cooperative breeding when population dynamics determine the fitness of helpers.

PubMed

McLeod, David V; Wild, Geoff

2013-11-01

Cooperative breeding is a system in which certain individuals facilitate the production of offspring by others. The ecological constraints hypothesis states that ecological conditions deter individuals from breeding independently, and so individuals breed cooperatively to make the best of a bad situation. Current theoretical support for the ecological constraints hypothesis is lacking. We formulate a mathematical model that emphasizes the underlying ecology of cooperative breeders. Our goal is to derive theoretical support for the ecological constraints hypothesis using an ecological model of population dynamics. We consider a population composed of two kinds of individuals, nonbreeders (auxiliaries) and breeders. We suppose that help provided by an auxiliary increases breeder fecundity, but reduces the probability with which the auxiliary becomes a breeder. Our main result is a condition that guarantees success of auxiliary help. We predict that increasing the cost of dispersal promotes helping, in agreement with verbal theory. We also predict that increasing breeder mortality can either hinder helping (at high population densities), or promote it (at low population densities). We conclude that ecological constraints can exert influence over the evolution of auxiliary help when population dynamics are considered; moreover, that influence need not coincide with direct fitness benefits as previously found. © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Application of network methods for understanding evolutionary dynamics in discrete habitats.

PubMed

Greenbaum, Gili; Fefferman, Nina H

2017-06-01

In populations occupying discrete habitat patches, gene flow between habitat patches may form an intricate population structure. In such structures, the evolutionary dynamics resulting from interaction of gene-flow patterns with other evolutionary forces may be exceedingly complex. Several models describing gene flow between discrete habitat patches have been presented in the population-genetics literature; however, these models have usually addressed relatively simple settings of habitable patches and have stopped short of providing general methodologies for addressing nontrivial gene-flow patterns. In the last decades, network theory - a branch of discrete mathematics concerned with complex interactions between discrete elements - has been applied to address several problems in population genetics by modelling gene flow between habitat patches using networks. Here, we present the idea and concepts of modelling complex gene flows in discrete habitats using networks. Our goal is to raise awareness to existing network theory applications in molecular ecology studies, as well as to outline the current and potential contribution of network methods to the understanding of evolutionary dynamics in discrete habitats. We review the main branches of network theory that have been, or that we believe potentially could be, applied to population genetics and molecular ecology research. We address applications to theoretical modelling and to empirical population-genetic studies, and we highlight future directions for extending the integration of network science with molecular ecology. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Vigorous dynamics underlie a stable population of the endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia in Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia.

PubMed

Sharma, Koustubh; Bayrakcismith, Rana; Tumursukh, Lkhagvasumberel; Johansson, Orjan; Sevger, Purevsuren; McCarthy, Tom; Mishra, Charudutt

2014-01-01

Population monitoring programmes and estimation of vital rates are key to understanding the mechanisms of population growth, decline or stability, and are important for effective conservation action. We report, for the first time, the population trends and vital rates of the endangered snow leopard based on camera trapping over four years in the Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia. We used robust design multi-season mark-recapture analysis to estimate the trends in abundance, sex ratio, survival probability and the probability of temporary emigration and immigration for adult and young snow leopards. The snow leopard population remained constant over most of the study period, with no apparent growth (λ = 1.08+-0.25). Comparison of model results with the "known population" of radio-collared snow leopards suggested high accuracy in our estimates. Although seemingly stable, vigorous underlying dynamics were evident in this population, with the adult sex ratio shifting from being male-biased to female-biased (1.67 to 0.38 males per female) during the study. Adult survival probability was 0.82 (SE+-0.08) and that of young was 0.83 (SE+-0.15) and 0.77 (SE +-0.2) respectively, before and after the age of 2 years. Young snow leopards showed a high probability of temporary emigration and immigration (0.6, SE +-0.19 and 0.68, SE +-0.32 before and after the age of 2 years) though not the adults (0.02 SE+-0.07). While the current female-bias in the population and the number of cubs born each year seemingly render the study population safe, the vigorous dynamics suggests that the situation can change quickly. The reduction in the proportion of male snow leopards may be indicative of continuing anthropogenic pressures. Our work reiterates the importance of monitoring both the abundance and population dynamics of species for effective conservation.

Population-level consequences of herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics on a long-lived invasive shrub.

PubMed

van Klinken, R D; Pichancourt, J B

2015-12-01

Long-lived plant species are highly valued environmentally, economically, and socially, but can also cause substantial harm as invaders. Realistic demographic predictions can guide management decisions, and are particularly valuable for long-lived species where population response times can be long. Long-lived species are also challenging, given population dynamics can be affected by factors as diverse as herbivory, climate, and dispersal. We developed a matrix model to evaluate the effects of herbivory by a leaf-feeding biological control agent released in Australia against a long-lived invasive shrub (mesquite, Leguminoseae: Prosopis spp.). The stage-structured, density-dependent model used an annual time step and 10 climatically diverse years of field data. Mesquite population demography is sensitive to source-sink dynamics as most seeds are consumed and redistributed spatially by livestock. In addition, individual mesquite plants, because they are long lived, experience natural climate variation that cycles over decadal scales, as well as anthropogenic climate change. The model therefore explicitly considered the effects of both net dispersal and climate variation. Herbivory strongly regulated mesquite populations through reduced growth and fertility, but additional mortality of older plants will be required to reach management goals within a reasonable time frame. Growth and survival of seeds and seedlings were correlated with daily soil moisture. As a result, population dynamics were sensitive to rainfall scenario, but population response times were typically slow (20-800 years to reach equilibrium or extinction) due to adult longevity. Equilibrium population densities were expected to remain 5% higher, and be more dynamic, if historical multi-decadal climate patterns persist, the effect being dampened by herbivory suppressing seed production irrespective of preceding rainfall. Dense infestations were unlikely to form under a drier climate, and required net dispersal under the current climate. Seed input wasn't required to form dense infestations under a wetter climate. Each factor we considered (ongoing herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics) has a strong bearing on how this invasive species should be managed, highlighting the need for considering both ecological context (in this case, source-sink dynamics) and the effect of climate variability at relevant temporal scales (daily, multi-decadal, and anthropogenic) when deriving management recommendations for long-lived species.

Dynamical Stability and Evolution of Kepler’s compact inner multi-planet systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pu, Bonan

2017-06-01

NASA’s Kepler mission has revealed a population of highly compact inner multi-planet systems. These systems, typically consisting of 4-6 super-Earths, feature tight orbital spacing between planets as well as low orbital inclinations (~2 deg. ) and eccentricities (~2%). This stands in contrast to Kepler’s singles population, which appears to feature higher orbital obliquities and eccentricities, as well as a lower transit timing variation fraction indicative of lower true planet multiplicities.In this talk, I will present some previous and ongoing research aimed at understanding the dynamical evolution of these Kepler systems. First, I will present numerical N-body investigations on the long-term stability of multi-planet systems, the results of which suggest that Kepler’s systems are near the edge of stability. Next, I will discuss some current research on the dynamics of planetary close encounters and collisions, and their implications for the ultimate fate of dynamically unstable multi-planet systems. Finally, I will highlight some recent results on the dynamical stability and evolution of inner multi-planet systems when they are accompanied by external giant planet and/or stellar companions.

Dynamic Model Predicting Overweight, Obesity, and Extreme Obesity Prevalence Trends

PubMed Central

Thomas, Diana M.; Weedermann, Marion; Fuemmeler, Bernard F.; Martin, Corby K.; Dhurandhar, Nikhil V.; Bredlau, Carl; Heymsfield, Steven B.; Ravussin, Eric; Bouchard, Claude

2013-01-01

Objective Obesity prevalence in the United States (US) appears to be leveling, but the reasons behind the plateau remain unknown. Mechanistic insights can be provided from a mathematical model. The objective of this study is to model known multiple population parameters associated with changes in body mass index (BMI) classes and to establish conditions under which obesity prevalence will plateau. Design and Methods A differential equation system was developed that predicts population-wide obesity prevalence trends. The model considers both social and non-social influences on weight gain, incorporates other known parameters affecting obesity trends, and allows for country specific population growth. Results The dynamic model predicts that: obesity prevalence is a function of birth rate and the probability of being born in an obesogenic environment; obesity prevalence will plateau independent of current prevention strategies; and the US prevalence of obesity, overweight, and extreme obesity will plateau by about 2030 at 28%, 32%, and 9%, respectively. Conclusions The US prevalence of obesity is stabilizing and will plateau, independent of current preventative strategies. This trend has important implications in accurately evaluating the impact of various anti-obesity strategies aimed at reducing obesity prevalence. PMID:23804487

Modeling Fecundity in Birds: Conceptual Overview, Current Models, and Considerations for Future Developments

EPA Science Inventory

Understanding fecundity is fundamental to understanding fitness, population dynamics, conservation, ecological risk, and management issues of birds. For all the efforts placed in measuring fecundity or its surrogates over the past century of avian research, it is still poorly me...

Computational Fluid Dynamics-Population Balance Model Simulation of Effects of Cell Design and Operating Parameters on Gas-Liquid Two-Phase Flows and Bubble Distribution Characteristics in Aluminum Electrolysis Cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhan, Shuiqing; Wang, Junfeng; Wang, Zhentao; Yang, Jianhong

2018-02-01

The effects of different cell design and operating parameters on the gas-liquid two-phase flows and bubble distribution characteristics under the anode bottom regions in aluminum electrolysis cells were analyzed using a three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics-population balance model. These parameters include inter-anode channel width, anode-cathode distance (ACD), anode width and length, current density, and electrolyte depth. The simulations results show that the inter-anode channel width has no significant effect on the gas volume fraction, electrolyte velocity, and bubble size. With increasing ACD, the above values decrease and more uniform bubbles can be obtained. Different effects of the anode width and length can be concluded in different cell regions. With increasing current density, the gas volume fraction and electrolyte velocity increase, but the bubble size keeps nearly the same. Increasing electrolyte depth decreased the gas volume fraction and bubble size in particular areas and the electrolyte velocity increased.

VCGDB: a dynamic genome database of the Chinese population

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The data released by the 1000 Genomes Project contain an increasing number of genome sequences from different nations and populations with a large number of genetic variations. As a result, the focus of human genome studies is changing from single and static to complex and dynamic. The currently available human reference genome (GRCh37) is based on sequencing data from 13 anonymous Caucasian volunteers, which might limit the scope of genomics, transcriptomics, epigenetics, and genome wide association studies. Description We used the massive amount of sequencing data published by the 1000 Genomes Project Consortium to construct the Virtual Chinese Genome Database (VCGDB), a dynamic genome database of the Chinese population based on the whole genome sequencing data of 194 individuals. VCGDB provides dynamic genomic information, which contains 35 million single nucleotide variations (SNVs), 0.5 million insertions/deletions (indels), and 29 million rare variations, together with genomic annotation information. VCGDB also provides a highly interactive user-friendly virtual Chinese genome browser (VCGBrowser) with functions like seamless zooming and real-time searching. In addition, we have established three population-specific consensus Chinese reference genomes that are compatible with mainstream alignment software. Conclusions VCGDB offers a feasible strategy for processing big data to keep pace with the biological data explosion by providing a robust resource for genomics studies; in particular, studies aimed at finding regions of the genome associated with diseases. PMID:24708222

Dynamics of the Earth's Inner Magnetosphere and its Connection to the Ionosphere: Current Understanding and Challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zheng, Yihua

2010-01-01

The Earth's inner magnetosphere, a vast volume in space spanning from 1.5 Re (Earth radii) to 10 Re, is a host to a variety of plasma populations (with energy from 1 eV to few MeV) and physical processes where most of which involve plasma and field coupling. As a gigantic particle accelerator, the inner magnetosphere includes three overlapping regions: the plasmasphere, the ring current, and the Van Allen radiation belt. The complex structures and dynamics of these regions are externally driven by solar activities and internally modulated by intricate interactions and coupling. As a major constituent of Space Weather, the inner magnetosphere is both scientifically intriguing and practically important to our society. In this presentation, I will discuss our recent results from the Comprehensive Ring Current Model, in the context of our current understanding of the inner magnetosphere in general and challenges ahead in making further progresses.

Dynamics of the Earth's Inner Magnetosphere and Its Connection to the Ionosphere: Current Understanding and Challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zheng, Yihua

2011-01-01

The Earth's inner magnetosphere, a vast volume in space spanning from 1.5 Re (Earth radii) to 10 Re, is a host to a variety of plasma populations (with energy from 1 eV to few MeV) and physical processes where most of which involve plasma and field coupling. As a gigantic particle accelerator, the inner magnetosphere includes three overlapping regions: the plasmasphere, the ring current, and the Van Allen radiation belt. The complex structures and dynamics of these regions are externally driven by solar activities and internally modulated by intricate interactions and coupling. As a major constituent of Space Weather, the inner magnetosphere is both scientifically intriguing and practically important to our society. In this presentation, I will discuss our recent results from the Comprehensive Ring Current Model, in the context of our current understanding of the inner magnetosphere in general and challenges ahead in making further progresses.

Metapopulation modelling of riparian tree species persistence in river networks under climate change.

PubMed

Van Looy, Kris; Piffady, Jérémy

2017-11-01

Floodplain landscapes are highly fragmented by river regulation resulting in habitat degradation and flood regime perturbation, posing risks to population persistence. Climate change is expected to pose supplementary risks in this context of fragmented landscapes, and especially for river systems adaptation management programs are developed. The association of habitat quality and quantity with the landscape dynamics and resilience to human-induced disturbances is still poorly understood in the context of species survival and colonization processes, but essential to prioritize conservation and restoration actions. We present a modelling approach that elucidates network connectivity and landscape dynamics in spatial and temporal context to identify vital corridors and conservation priorities in the Loire river and its tributaries. Alteration of flooding and flow regimes is believed to be critical to population dynamics in river ecosystems. Still, little is known of critical levels of alteration both spatially and temporally. We applied metapopulation modelling approaches for a dispersal-limited tree species, white elm; and a recruitment-limited tree species, black poplar. In different model steps the connectivity and natural dynamics of the river landscape are confronted with physical alterations (dams/dykes) to species survival and then future scenarios for climatic changes and potential adaptation measures are entered in the model and translated in population persistence over the river basin. For the two tree species we highlighted crucial network zones in relation to habitat quality and connectivity. Where the human impact model already shows currently restricted metapopulation development, climate change is projected to aggravate this persistence perspective substantially. For both species a significant drawback to the basin population is observed, with 1/3 for elm and ¼ for poplar after 25 years already. But proposed adaptation measures prove effective to even bring metapopulation strength and persistence up to a level above the current level. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Kinetic theory of age-structured stochastic birth-death processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenman, Chris D.; Chou, Tom

2016-01-01

Classical age-structured mass-action models such as the McKendrick-von Foerster equation have been extensively studied but are unable to describe stochastic fluctuations or population-size-dependent birth and death rates. Stochastic theories that treat semi-Markov age-dependent processes using, e.g., the Bellman-Harris equation do not resolve a population's age structure and are unable to quantify population-size dependencies. Conversely, current theories that include size-dependent population dynamics (e.g., mathematical models that include carrying capacity such as the logistic equation) cannot be easily extended to take into account age-dependent birth and death rates. In this paper, we present a systematic derivation of a new, fully stochastic kinetic theory for interacting age-structured populations. By defining multiparticle probability density functions, we derive a hierarchy of kinetic equations for the stochastic evolution of an aging population undergoing birth and death. We show that the fully stochastic age-dependent birth-death process precludes factorization of the corresponding probability densities, which then must be solved by using a Bogoliubov--Born--Green--Kirkwood--Yvon-like hierarchy. Explicit solutions are derived in three limits: no birth, no death, and steady state. These are then compared with their corresponding mean-field results. Our results generalize both deterministic models and existing master equation approaches by providing an intuitive and efficient way to simultaneously model age- and population-dependent stochastic dynamics applicable to the study of demography, stem cell dynamics, and disease evolution.

Precipitation, density, and population dynamics of desert bighorn sheep on San Andres National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bender, L.C.; Weisenberger, M.E.

2005-01-01

Understanding the determinants of population size and performance for desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis mexicana) is critical to develop effective recovery and management strategies. In arid environments, plant communities and consequently herbivore populations are strongly dependent upon precipitation, which is highly variable seasonally and annually. We conducted a retrospective exploratory analysis of desert bighorn sheep population dynamics on San Andres National Wildlife Refuge (SANWR), New Mexico, 1941-1976, by modeling sheep population size as a function of previous population sizes and precipitation. Population size and trend of desert bighorn were best and well described (R 2=0.89) by a model that included only total annual precipitation as a covariate. Models incorporating density-dependence, delayed density-dependence, and combinations of density and precipitation were less informative than the model containing precipitation alone (??AlCc=8.5-22.5). Lamb:female ratios were positively related to precipitation (current year: F1,34=7.09, P=0.012; previous year: F1,33=3.37, P=0.075) but were unrelated to population size (current year. F1,34=0.04, P=0.843; previous year: F1,33 =0.14, P=0.715). Instantaneous population rate of increase (r) was related to population size (F1,33=5.55; P=0.025). Precipitation limited populations of desert bighorn sheep on SANWR primarily in a density-independent manner by affecting production or survival of lambs, likely through influences on forage quantity and quality. Habitat evaluations and recovery plans for desert bighorn sheep need to consider fundamental influences on desert bighorn populations such as precipitation and food, rather than focus solely on proximate issues such as security cover, predation, and disease. Moreover, the concept of carrying capacity for desert bighorn sheep may need re-evaluation in respect to highly variable (CV =35.6%) localized precipitation patterns. On SANWR carrying capacity for desert bighorn sheep was zero when total annual precipitation was <28.2 cm.

Human group formation in online guilds and offline gangs driven by a common team dynamic.

PubMed

Johnson, Neil F; Xu, Chen; Zhao, Zhenyuan; Ducheneaut, Nicolas; Yee, Nicholas; Tita, George; Hui, Pak Ming

2009-06-01

Quantifying human group dynamics represents a unique challenge. Unlike animals and other biological systems, humans form groups in both real (offline) and virtual (online) spaces-from potentially dangerous street gangs populated mostly by disaffected male youths to the massive global guilds in online role-playing games for which membership currently exceeds tens of millions of people from all possible backgrounds, age groups, and genders. We have compiled and analyzed data for these two seemingly unrelated offline and online human activities and have uncovered an unexpected quantitative link between them. Although their overall dynamics differ visibly, we find that a common team-based model can accurately reproduce the quantitative features of each simply by adjusting the average tolerance level and attribute range for each population. By contrast, we find no evidence to support a version of the model based on like-seeking-like (i.e., kinship or "homophily").

Human group formation in online guilds and offline gangs driven by a common team dynamic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Neil F.; Xu, Chen; Zhao, Zhenyuan; Ducheneaut, Nicolas; Yee, Nicholas; Tita, George; Hui, Pak Ming

2009-06-01

Quantifying human group dynamics represents a unique challenge. Unlike animals and other biological systems, humans form groups in both real (offline) and virtual (online) spaces—from potentially dangerous street gangs populated mostly by disaffected male youths to the massive global guilds in online role-playing games for which membership currently exceeds tens of millions of people from all possible backgrounds, age groups, and genders. We have compiled and analyzed data for these two seemingly unrelated offline and online human activities and have uncovered an unexpected quantitative link between them. Although their overall dynamics differ visibly, we find that a common team-based model can accurately reproduce the quantitative features of each simply by adjusting the average tolerance level and attribute range for each population. By contrast, we find no evidence to support a version of the model based on like-seeking-like (i.e., kinship or “homophily”).

Killer Whale Nuclear Genome and mtDNA Reveal Widespread Population Bottleneck during the Last Glacial Maximum

PubMed Central

Moura, Andre E.; Janse van Rensburg, Charlene; Pilot, Malgorzata; Tehrani, Arman; Best, Peter B.; Thornton, Meredith; Plön, Stephanie; de Bruyn, P.J. Nico; Worley, Kim C.; Gibbs, Richard A.; Dahlheim, Marilyn E.; Hoelzel, Alan Rus

2014-01-01

Ecosystem function and resilience is determined by the interactions and independent contributions of individual species. Apex predators play a disproportionately determinant role through their influence and dependence on the dynamics of prey species. Their demographic fluctuations are thus likely to reflect changes in their respective ecological communities and habitat. Here, we investigate the historical population dynamics of the killer whale based on draft nuclear genome data for the Northern Hemisphere and mtDNA data worldwide. We infer a relatively stable population size throughout most of the Pleistocene, followed by an order of magnitude decline and bottleneck during the Weichselian glacial period. Global mtDNA data indicate that while most populations declined, at least one population retained diversity in a stable, productive ecosystem off southern Africa. We conclude that environmental changes during the last glacial period promoted the decline of a top ocean predator, that these events contributed to the pattern of diversity among extant populations, and that the relatively high diversity of a population currently in productive, stable habitat off South Africa suggests a role for ocean productivity in the widespread decline. PMID:24497033

Health and ecological sustainability in the Arab world: a matter of survival.

PubMed

El-Zein, Abbas; Jabbour, Samer; Tekce, Belgin; Zurayk, Huda; Nuwayhid, Iman; Khawaja, Marwan; Tell, Tariq; Al Mooji, Yusuf; De-Jong, Jocelyn; Yassin, Nasser; Hogan, Dennis

2014-02-01

Discussions leading to the Rio+20 UN conference have emphasised the importance of sustainable development and the protection of the environment for future generations. The Arab world faces large-scale threats to its sustainable development and, most of all, to the viability and existence of the ecological systems for its human settlements. The dynamics of population change, ecological degradation, and resource scarcity, and development policies and practices, all occurring in complex and highly unstable geopolitical and economic environments, are fostering the poor prospects. In this report, we discuss the most pertinent population-environment-development dynamics in the Arab world, and the two-way interactions between these dynamics and health, on the basis of current data. We draw attention to trends that are relevant to health professionals and researchers, but emphasise that the dynamics generating these trends have implications that go well beyond health. We argue that the current discourse on health, population, and development in the Arab world has largely failed to convey a sense of urgency, when the survival of whole communities is at stake. The dismal ecological and development records of Arab countries over the past two decades call for new directions. We suggest that regional ecological integration around exchange of water, energy, food, and labour, though politically difficult to achieve, offers the best hope to improve the adaptive capacity of individual Arab nations. The transformative political changes taking place in the Arab world offer promise, indeed an imperative, for such renewal. We call on policy makers, researchers, practitioners, and international agencies to emphasise the urgency and take action. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The dynamics of fauna and population of birds in agricultural landscapes on the border of Kazan International Airport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bespalov, A. F.; Belyaev, A. N.

2018-01-01

The dynamics of fauna and population of birds from agricultural lands near Kazan International Airport has been studied for one year. A total of 60 bird species have been registered, of which 26 species must be considered as highly dangerous to flying aircraft. With regard to seasonal activity, the nesting period (April - June) is the most hazardous, since it is characterized by maximum species richness and total population density of birds, as well as their high species diversity. Furthermore, a serious danger is posed by the period of postnesting nomadic movements and the onset of migrations (July - September) when the species diversity turns out to be the highest and the total population density begins to decrease. It has been recommended based on the obtained results that the current crops should be replaced by cultivars that will be less attractive to birds. In spring and autumn, certain bird hazing and frightening measures must be taken on a more regular basis.

Spatial heterogeneity in the carrying capacity of sika deer in Japan

PubMed Central

Iijima, Hayato; Ueno, Mayumi

2016-01-01

Abstract Carrying capacity is 1 driver of wildlife population dynamics. Although in previous studies carrying capacity was considered to be a fixed entity, it may differ among locations due to environmental variation. The factors underlying variability in carrying capacity, however, have rarely been examined. Here, we investigated spatial heterogeneity in the carrying capacity of Japanese sika deer ( Cervus nippon ) from 2005 to 2014 in Yamanashi Prefecture, central Japan (mesh with grid cells of 5.5×4.6 km) by state-space modeling. Both carrying capacity and density dependence differed greatly among cells. Estimated carrying capacities ranged from 1.34 to 98.4 deer/km 2 . According to estimated population dynamics, grid cells with larger proportions of artificial grassland and deciduous forest were subject to lower density dependence and higher carrying capacity. We conclude that population dynamics of ungulates may vary spatially through spatial variation in carrying capacity and that the density level for controlling ungulate abundance should be based on the current density level relative to the carrying capacity for each area. PMID:29692470

Vigorous Dynamics Underlie a Stable Population of the Endangered Snow Leopard Panthera uncia in Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia

PubMed Central

Sharma, Koustubh; Bayrakcismith, Rana; Tumursukh, Lkhagvasumberel; Johansson, Orjan; Sevger, Purevsuren; McCarthy, Tom; Mishra, Charudutt

2014-01-01

Population monitoring programmes and estimation of vital rates are key to understanding the mechanisms of population growth, decline or stability, and are important for effective conservation action. We report, for the first time, the population trends and vital rates of the endangered snow leopard based on camera trapping over four years in the Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia. We used robust design multi-season mark-recapture analysis to estimate the trends in abundance, sex ratio, survival probability and the probability of temporary emigration and immigration for adult and young snow leopards. The snow leopard population remained constant over most of the study period, with no apparent growth (λ = 1.08+−0.25). Comparison of model results with the “known population” of radio-collared snow leopards suggested high accuracy in our estimates. Although seemingly stable, vigorous underlying dynamics were evident in this population, with the adult sex ratio shifting from being male-biased to female-biased (1.67 to 0.38 males per female) during the study. Adult survival probability was 0.82 (SE+−0.08) and that of young was 0.83 (SE+−0.15) and 0.77 (SE +−0.2) respectively, before and after the age of 2 years. Young snow leopards showed a high probability of temporary emigration and immigration (0.6, SE +−0.19 and 0.68, SE +−0.32 before and after the age of 2 years) though not the adults (0.02 SE+−0.07). While the current female-bias in the population and the number of cubs born each year seemingly render the study population safe, the vigorous dynamics suggests that the situation can change quickly. The reduction in the proportion of male snow leopards may be indicative of continuing anthropogenic pressures. Our work reiterates the importance of monitoring both the abundance and population dynamics of species for effective conservation. PMID:25006879

High Connectivity among Blue Crab (Callinectes sapidus) Populations in the Western South Atlantic

PubMed Central

Kersanach, Ralf; Cortinhas, Maria Cristina Silva; Prata, Pedro Fernandes Sanmartin; Dumont, Luiz Felipe Cestari; Proietti, Maíra Carneiro; Maggioni, Rodrigo; D’Incao, Fernando

2016-01-01

Population connectivity in the blue crab Callinectes sapidus was evaluated along 740 km of the Western South Atlantic coast. Blue crabs are the most exploited portunid in Brazil. Despite their economic importance, few studies report their ecology or population structure. Here we sampled four estuarine areas in southern Brazil during winter 2013 and summer 2014 in order to evaluate diversity, gene flow and structure of these populations. Nine microsatellite markers were evaluated for 213 adult crabs, with identification of seven polymorphic loci and 183 alleles. Pairwise FST values indicated low population structure ranging from -0.00023 to 0.01755. A Mantel test revealed that the geographic distance does not influence genetic (r = -0.48), and structure/migration rates confirmed this, showing that even the populations located at the opposite extremities of our covered region presented low FST and exchanged migrants. These findings show that there is a significant amount of gene flow between blue crab populations in South Brazil, likely influenced by local current dynamics that allow the transport of a high number of larvae between estuaries. Considering the elevated gene flow, the populations can be considered a single genetic stock. However, further information on population size and dynamics, as well as fishery demands and impacts at different regions, are necessary for harvest management purposes. PMID:27064977

The status of masked bobwhite recovery in the United States and Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuvlesky, W.P.; Gall, S.A.; Dobrott, S.J.; Tolley, S.; Guthery, F.S.; DeStefano, S.A.; King, N.; Nolte, K.R.; Silvy, N.J.; Lewis, J.C.; Gee, G.; Camou Luders, G.; Engel-Wilson, R.; Brennan, Leonard A.; Palmer, William E.; Burger, Loren W.; Pruden, Teresa L.

2000-01-01

The masked bobwhite (Colinus virginianus ridgwayi) is an endangered species currently numbering < 1500 individuals and restricted to 2 locales in southeastern Arizona and northcentral Sonora, Mexico. The subspecies' endangered status is attributed to overgrazing of Sonora savanna grassland that began during the late 1880's and continued well into the 20th century. This overgrazing resulted in the conversion of many native grass pastures to the exotic bufflegrass (Cenchrus ciliaris). The Arizona masked bobwhite population was extirpated around the turn of the century, and the Sonoran population was thought to have disappeared during the 1940's until a small remnant population was discovered on a ranch near Benjamin Hill, Sonora, in 1964. Masked bobwhite recovery efforts have a dynamic, long history of nearly six decades. Current masked bobwhite recovery efforts focus on reestablishing a self-sustainlng population on the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge (BANWR) in the United States, as well as 2 remnant wild populations located on privately owned ranches in northcentral Sonora.

A dynamic life table model of Psorophora columbiae in the southern Louisiana rice agroecosystem with supporting hydrologic submodel. Part 1. Analysis of literature and model development.

PubMed

Focks, D A; McLaughlin, R E; Smith, B M

1988-09-01

During the past decade, the rice agroecosystem and its associated mosquitoes have been the subject of an extensive research effort directed toward the development and implementation of integrated pest management (IPM) strategies. The objective of this work was to synthesize the literature and unpublished data on the rice agroecosystem into a comprehensive simulation model of the key elements of the system known to influence the population dynamics of Psorophora columbiae. Subsequent companion papers will present a validation of these models, provide an in-depth analysis of the population dynamics of Ps. columbiae, and evaluate current and proposed IPM strategies for this mosquito. This paper describes the development of 2 models: WaterMod: Because spatial and temporal distributions of surface water and soil moisture play a decisive role in the dynamics of Ps. columbiae, an essentially hydrological simulator was developed. Its purpose is to provide environmental inputs for a second model (PcSim) which simulates the population dynamics of Ps. columbiae. WaterMod utilizes data on weather, agricultural practices, and soil characteristics for a particular region to generate a data set containing daily estimates of soil moisture and depth of water table for 12 representative areas comprising the rice agroecosystem. This model could be used to provide hydrologic inputs for additional simulation models of other riceland mosquito species. PcSim: This model simulates the population dynamics of Ps. columbiae by using the computer to maintain a daily accounting of the absolute number of mosquitoes within each daily age class for each life stage. The model creates estimates of the number of eggs, larvae, pupae, and adults for a representative l-ha area of a rice agroecosystem.

Increasing BCI communication rates with dynamic stopping towards more practical use: an ALS study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mainsah, B. O.; Collins, L. M.; Colwell, K. A.; Sellers, E. W.; Ryan, D. B.; Caves, K.; Throckmorton, C. S.

2015-02-01

Objective. The P300 speller is a brain-computer interface (BCI) that can possibly restore communication abilities to individuals with severe neuromuscular disabilities, such as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), by exploiting elicited brain signals in electroencephalography (EEG) data. However, accurate spelling with BCIs is slow due to the need to average data over multiple trials to increase the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the elicited brain signals. Probabilistic approaches to dynamically control data collection have shown improved performance in non-disabled populations; however, validation of these approaches in a target BCI user population has not occurred. Approach. We have developed a data-driven algorithm for the P300 speller based on Bayesian inference that improves spelling time by adaptively selecting the number of trials based on the acute SNR of a user’s EEG data. We further enhanced the algorithm by incorporating information about the user’s language. In this current study, we test and validate the algorithms online in a target BCI user population, by comparing the performance of the dynamic stopping (DS) (or early stopping) algorithms against the current state-of-the-art method, static data collection, where the amount of data collected is fixed prior to online operation. Main results. Results from online testing of the DS algorithms in participants with ALS demonstrate a significant increase in communication rate as measured in bits/min (100-300%), and theoretical bit rate (100-550%), while maintaining selection accuracy. Participants also overwhelmingly preferred the DS algorithms. Significance. We have developed a viable BCI algorithm that has been tested in a target BCI population which has the potential for translation to improve BCI speller performance towards more practical use for communication.

Increasing BCI communication rates with dynamic stopping towards more practical use: an ALS study.

PubMed

Mainsah, B O; Collins, L M; Colwell, K A; Sellers, E W; Ryan, D B; Caves, K; Throckmorton, C S

2015-02-01

The P300 speller is a brain-computer interface (BCI) that can possibly restore communication abilities to individuals with severe neuromuscular disabilities, such as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), by exploiting elicited brain signals in electroencephalography (EEG) data. However, accurate spelling with BCIs is slow due to the need to average data over multiple trials to increase the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the elicited brain signals. Probabilistic approaches to dynamically control data collection have shown improved performance in non-disabled populations; however, validation of these approaches in a target BCI user population has not occurred. We have developed a data-driven algorithm for the P300 speller based on Bayesian inference that improves spelling time by adaptively selecting the number of trials based on the acute SNR of a user's EEG data. We further enhanced the algorithm by incorporating information about the user's language. In this current study, we test and validate the algorithms online in a target BCI user population, by comparing the performance of the dynamic stopping (DS) (or early stopping) algorithms against the current state-of-the-art method, static data collection, where the amount of data collected is fixed prior to online operation. Results from online testing of the DS algorithms in participants with ALS demonstrate a significant increase in communication rate as measured in bits/min (100-300%), and theoretical bit rate (100-550%), while maintaining selection accuracy. Participants also overwhelmingly preferred the DS algorithms. We have developed a viable BCI algorithm that has been tested in a target BCI population which has the potential for translation to improve BCI speller performance towards more practical use for communication.

Diversity waves in collapse-driven population dynamics

DOE PAGES

Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

2015-09-14

Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe collapses of the entire population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g.more » by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances are characterized by a bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.« less

Diversity waves in collapse-driven population dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe collapses of the entire population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g.more » by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances are characterized by a bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.« less

The Hubble Space Telescope UV Legacy Survey of Galactic Globular Clusters. XV. The Dynamical Clock: Reading Cluster Dynamical Evolution from the Segregation Level of Blue Straggler Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferraro, F. R.; Lanzoni, B.; Raso, S.; Nardiello, D.; Dalessandro, E.; Vesperini, E.; Piotto, G.; Pallanca, C.; Beccari, G.; Bellini, A.; Libralato, M.; Anderson, J.; Aparicio, A.; Bedin, L. R.; Cassisi, S.; Milone, A. P.; Ortolani, S.; Renzini, A.; Salaris, M.; van der Marel, R. P.

2018-06-01

The parameter A +, defined as the area enclosed between the cumulative radial distribution of blue straggler stars (BSSs) and that of a reference population, is a powerful indicator of the level of BSS central segregation. As part of the Hubble Space Telescope UV Legacy Survey of Galactic globular clusters (GCs), here we present the BSS population and the determination of A + in 27 GCs observed out to about one half-mass radius. In combination with 21 additional clusters discussed in a previous paper, this provides us with a global sample of 48 systems (corresponding to ∼32% of the Milky Way GC population), for which we find a strong correlation between A + and the ratio of cluster age to the current central relaxation time. Tight relations have also been found with the core radius and the central luminosity density, which are expected to change with the long-term cluster dynamical evolution. An interesting relation is emerging between A + and the ratio of the BSS velocity dispersion relative to that of main sequence turn-off stars, which measures the degree of energy equipartition experienced by BSSs in the cluster. These results provide further confirmation that BSSs are invaluable probes of GC internal dynamics and that A + is a powerful dynamical clock.

The invasive mosquito species Aedes albopictus: current knowledge and future perspectives

PubMed Central

Bonizzoni, Mariangela; Gasperi, Giuliano; Chen, Xioaguang; James, Anthony A.

2013-01-01

One of the most dynamic events in public health is being mediated by the global spread of the invasive mosquito Aedes albopictus. Its rapid expansion and vectorial capacity for various arboviruses affect an increasingly larger proportion of the world population. Responses to the challenges of controlling this vector are expected to be enhanced by an increased knowledge of its biology, ecology, and vector competence. Details of population genetics and structure will allow following, and possibly predicting, the geographical and temporal dynamics of its expansion, and will inform the practical operations of control programs. Experts are coming together now to describe the history, characterize the present circumstances, and collaborate on future efforts to understand and mitigate this emerging public health threat. PMID:23916878

Spatio-temporal Genetic Structuring of Leishmania major in Tunisia by Microsatellite Analysis

PubMed Central

Harrabi, Myriam; Bettaieb, Jihène; Ghawar, Wissem; Toumi, Amine; Zaâtour, Amor; Yazidi, Rihab; Chaâbane, Sana; Chalghaf, Bilel; Hide, Mallorie; Bañuls, Anne-Laure; Ben Salah, Afif

2015-01-01

In Tunisia, cases of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania major are increasing and spreading from the south-west to new areas in the center. To improve the current knowledge on L. major evolution and population dynamics, we performed multi-locus microsatellite typing of human isolates from Tunisian governorates where the disease is endemic (Gafsa, Kairouan and Sidi Bouzid governorates) and collected during two periods: 1991–1992 and 2008–2012. Analysis (F-statistics and Bayesian model-based approach) of the genotyping results of isolates collected in Sidi Bouzid in 1991–1992 and 2008–2012 shows that, over two decades, in the same area, Leishmania parasites evolved by generating genetically differentiated populations. The genetic patterns of 2008–2012 isolates from the three governorates indicate that L. major populations did not spread gradually from the south to the center of Tunisia, according to a geographical gradient, suggesting that human activities might be the source of the disease expansion. The genotype analysis also suggests previous (Bayesian model-based approach) and current (F-statistics) flows of genotypes between governorates and districts. Human activities as well as reservoir dynamics and the effects of environmental changes could explain how the disease progresses. This study provides new insights into the evolution and spread of L. major in Tunisia that might improve our understanding of the parasite flow between geographically and temporally distinct populations. PMID:26302440

Controlling range expansion in habitat networks by adaptively targeting source populations.

PubMed

Hock, Karlo; Wolff, Nicholas H; Beeden, Roger; Hoey, Jessica; Condie, Scott A; Anthony, Kenneth R N; Possingham, Hugh P; Mumby, Peter J

2016-08-01

Controlling the spread of invasive species, pests, and pathogens is often logistically limited to interventions that target specific locations at specific periods. However, in complex, highly connected systems, such as marine environments connected by ocean currents, populations spread dynamically in both space and time via transient connectivity links. This results in nondeterministic future distributions of species in which local populations emerge dynamically and concurrently over a large area. The challenge, therefore, is to choose intervention locations that will maximize the effectiveness of the control efforts. We propose a novel method to manage dynamic species invasions and outbreaks that identifies the intervention locations most likely to curtail population expansion by selectively targeting local populations most likely to expand their future range. Critically, at any point during the development of the invasion or outbreak, the method identifies the local intervention that maximizes the long-term benefit across the ecosystem by restricting species' potential to spread. In so doing, the method adaptively selects the intervention targets under dynamically changing circumstances. To illustrate the effectiveness of the method we applied it to controlling the spread of crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster sp.) outbreaks across Australia's Great Barrier Reef. Application of our method resulted in an 18-fold relative improvement in management outcomes compared with a random targeting of reefs in putative starfish control scenarios. Although we focused on applying the method to reducing the spread of an unwanted species, it can also be used to facilitate the spread of desirable species through connectivity networks. For example, the method could be used to select those fragments of habitat most likely to rebuild a population if they were sufficiently well protected. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Comparing spatial diversification and meta-population models in the Indo-Australian Archipelago

PubMed Central

Chalmandrier, Loïc; Albouy, Camille; Descombes, Patrice; Sandel, Brody; Faurby, Soren; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.

2018-01-01

Reconstructing the processes that have shaped the emergence of biodiversity gradients is critical to understand the dynamics of diversification of life on Earth. Islands have traditionally been used as model systems to unravel the processes shaping biological diversity. MacArthur and Wilson's island biogeographic model predicts diversity to be based on dynamic interactions between colonization and extinction rates, while treating islands themselves as geologically static entities. The current spatial configuration of islands should influence meta-population dynamics, but long-term geological changes within archipelagos are also expected to have shaped island biodiversity, in part by driving diversification. Here, we compare two mechanistic models providing inferences on species richness at a biogeographic scale: a mechanistic spatial-temporal model of species diversification and a spatial meta-population model. While the meta-population model operates over a static landscape, the diversification model is driven by changes in the size and spatial configuration of islands through time. We compare the inferences of both models to floristic diversity patterns among land patches of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Simulation results from the diversification model better matched observed diversity than a meta-population model constrained only by the contemporary landscape. The diversification model suggests that the dynamic re-positioning of islands promoting land disconnection and reconnection induced an accumulation of particularly high species diversity on Borneo, which is central within the island network. By contrast, the meta-population model predicts a higher diversity on the mainlands, which is less compatible with empirical data. Our analyses highlight that, by comparing models with contrasting assumptions, we can pinpoint the processes that are most compatible with extant biodiversity patterns. PMID:29657753

Comparing spatial diversification and meta-population models in the Indo-Australian Archipelago.

PubMed

Chalmandrier, Loïc; Albouy, Camille; Descombes, Patrice; Sandel, Brody; Faurby, Soren; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Pellissier, Loïc

2018-03-01

Reconstructing the processes that have shaped the emergence of biodiversity gradients is critical to understand the dynamics of diversification of life on Earth. Islands have traditionally been used as model systems to unravel the processes shaping biological diversity. MacArthur and Wilson's island biogeographic model predicts diversity to be based on dynamic interactions between colonization and extinction rates, while treating islands themselves as geologically static entities. The current spatial configuration of islands should influence meta-population dynamics, but long-term geological changes within archipelagos are also expected to have shaped island biodiversity, in part by driving diversification. Here, we compare two mechanistic models providing inferences on species richness at a biogeographic scale: a mechanistic spatial-temporal model of species diversification and a spatial meta-population model. While the meta-population model operates over a static landscape, the diversification model is driven by changes in the size and spatial configuration of islands through time. We compare the inferences of both models to floristic diversity patterns among land patches of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Simulation results from the diversification model better matched observed diversity than a meta-population model constrained only by the contemporary landscape. The diversification model suggests that the dynamic re-positioning of islands promoting land disconnection and reconnection induced an accumulation of particularly high species diversity on Borneo, which is central within the island network. By contrast, the meta-population model predicts a higher diversity on the mainlands, which is less compatible with empirical data. Our analyses highlight that, by comparing models with contrasting assumptions, we can pinpoint the processes that are most compatible with extant biodiversity patterns.

Population genetics and the evolution of geographic range limits in an annual plant.

PubMed

Moeller, David A; Geber, Monica A; Tiffin, Peter

2011-10-01

Abstract Theoretical models of species' geographic range limits have identified both demographic and evolutionary mechanisms that prevent range expansion. Stable range limits have been paradoxical for evolutionary biologists because they represent locations where populations chronically fail to respond to selection. Distinguishing among the proposed causes of species' range limits requires insight into both current and historical population dynamics. The tools of molecular population genetics provide a window into the stability of range limits, historical demography, and rates of gene flow. Here we evaluate alternative range limit models using a multilocus data set based on DNA sequences and microsatellites along with field demographic data from the annual plant Clarkia xantiana ssp. xantiana. Our data suggest that central and peripheral populations have very large historical and current effective population sizes and that there is little evidence for population size changes or bottlenecks associated with colonization in peripheral populations. Whereas range limit populations appear to have been stable, central populations exhibit a signature of population expansion and have contributed asymmetrically to the genetic diversity of peripheral populations via migration. Overall, our results discount strictly demographic models of range limits and more strongly support evolutionary genetic models of range limits, where adaptation is prevented by a lack of genetic variation or maladaptive gene flow.

Nonmonotonic radial distribution of excited atoms in a positive column of pulsed direct currect discharges in helium

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barnat, E. V.; Kolobov, V. I.

2013-01-21

Nonmonotonic radial distributions of excited helium atoms have been experimentally observed in a positive column of pulsed helium discharges using planar laser induced fluorescence. Computational analysis of the discharge dynamics with a fluid plasma model confirms the experimental observations over a range of pressures and currents. The observed effect is attributed to the peculiarities of electron population-depopulation of the excited states during the 'dynamic discharge' conditions with strong modulations of the electric field maintaining the plasma.

Population dynamics of Sesamia inferens on transgenic rice expressing Cry1Ac and CpTI in southern China.

PubMed

Han, Lanzhi; Liu, Peilei; Wu, Kongming; Peng, Yufa; Wang, Feng

2008-10-01

Genetically modified insect-resistant rice lines containing the cry1Ac gene from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) or the CpTI (cowpea trypsin inhibitor) gene developed for the management of lepidopterous pests are highly resistant to the major target pests, Chilo suppressalis (Walker), Cnaphalocrocis medinalis (Guenée), and Scirpophaga incertulas (Walker), in the main rice-growing areas of China. However, the effects of these transgenic lines on Sesamia inferens (Walker), an important lepidopterous rice pest, are currently unknown. Because different insect species have varying susceptibility to Bt insecticidal proteins that may affect population dynamics, research into the effects of these transgenic rice lines on the population dynamics of S. inferens was conducted in Fuzhou, southern China, in 2005 and 2006. The results of laboratory, field cage, and field plot experiments show that S. inferens has comparatively high susceptibility to the transgenic line during the early growing season, with significant differences observed in larval density and infestation levels between transgenic and control lines. Because of a decrease in Cry1Ac levels in the plant as it ages, the transgenic line provided only a low potential for population suppression late in the growing season. There is a correlation between the changing expression of Cry1Ac and the impact of transgenic rice on the population dynamics of S. inferens during the season. These results indicate that S. inferens may become a major pest in fields of prospective commercially released transgenic rice, and more attention should be paid to developing an effective alternative management strategy.

Predicting the Future Impact of Droughts on Ungulate Populations in Arid and Semi-Arid Environments

PubMed Central

Duncan, Clare; Chauvenet, Aliénor L. M.; McRae, Louise M.; Pettorelli, Nathalie

2012-01-01

Droughts can have a severe impact on the dynamics of animal populations, particularly in semi-arid and arid environments where herbivore populations are strongly limited by resource availability. Increased drought intensity under projected climate change scenarios can be expected to reduce the viability of such populations, yet this impact has seldom been quantified. In this study, we aim to fill this gap and assess how the predicted worsening of droughts over the 21st century is likely to impact the population dynamics of twelve ungulate species occurring in arid and semi-arid habitats. Our results provide support to the hypotheses that more sedentary, grazing and mixed feeding species will be put at high risk from future increases in drought intensity, suggesting that management intervention under these conditions should be targeted towards species possessing these traits. Predictive population models for all sedentary, grazing or mixed feeding species in our study show that their probability of extinction dramatically increases under future emissions scenarios, and that this extinction risk is greater for smaller populations than larger ones. Our study highlights the importance of quantifying the current and future impacts of increasing extreme natural events on populations and species in order to improve our ability to mitigate predicted biodiversity loss under climate change. PMID:23284700

A system dynamics modelling approach to assess the impact of launching a new nicotine product on population health outcomes.

PubMed

Hill, Andrew; Camacho, Oscar M

2017-06-01

In 2012 the US FDA suggested the use of mathematical models to assess the impact of releasing new nicotine or tobacco products on population health outcomes. A model based on system dynamics methodology was developed to project the potential effects of a new nicotine product at a population level. A model representing traditional smoking populations (never, current and former smokers) and calibrated using historical data was extended to a two-product model by including electronic cigarettes use statuses. Smoking mechanisms, such as product initiation, switching, transition to dual use, and cessation, were represented as flows between smoking statuses (stocks) and the potential effect of smoking renormalisation through a feedback system. Mortality over a 50-year period (2000-2050) was the health outcome of interest, and was compared between two scenarios, with and without e-cigarettes being introduced. The results suggest that by 2050, smoking prevalence in adults was 12.4% in the core model and 9.7% (including dual users) in the counterfactual. Smoking-related mortality was 8.4% and 8.1%, respectively. The results suggested an overall beneficial effect from launching e-cigarettes and that system dynamics could be a useful approach to assess the potential population health effects of nicotine products when epidemiological data are not available. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

White-tailed deer population dynamics and adult female survival in the presence of a novel predator: Deer Population Dynamics

DOE PAGES

Chitwood, Michael C.; Lashley, Marcus A.; Kilgo, John C.; ...

2015-02-01

Recent localized declines in white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus) populations in the southeastern United States have been linked to increasing predation pressure from coyotes ( Canis latrans), a novel predator to the region. Studies have documented coyotes as the leading cause of mortality for neonates, and 1 study documented coyotes as a mortality factor for adult females. However, no study has used field-based vital rates to conduct sensitivity analyses or model deer population trajectories under potential harvest or predator removal strategies. We used low, medium, and high values of fawn survival, adult female survival, and fecundity data collected from Fortmore » Bragg Military Installation, North Carolina to demonstrate the current declining population trajectory for deer (λ = 0.905; low λ = 0.788, high λ = 1.003). Consistent with other studies of ungulates, we determined adult female survival was the most sensitive and elastic vital rate. Further, for 3 potential management (“what if”) scenarios, we projected the population for 10 years using estimated vital rates. Reducing adult female harvest (λ = 0.935; low λ = 0.875, high λ = 1.002) and coyote removal (λ = 0.995; low λ = 0.898, high λ = 1.081) reduced the current population decline, whereas combining both approaches (λ = 1.024; low λ = 0.898, high λ = 1.141) resulted in population increases. Our data indicate that for low-density deer populations with heavy predation pressure on neonates, protecting adult females from harvest may not completely offset population declines. Coyote removal might be a necessary strategy because it could possibly increase very low fawn survival, which appears to be the most important vital rate influencing λ in our study. However, managers may have to start with reductions in adult female harvest because coyote removal would have to be continuous and consistently effective, making it an impractical management approach by itself.« less

White-tailed deer population dynamics and adult female survival in the presence of a novel predator: Deer Population Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chitwood, Michael C.; Lashley, Marcus A.; Kilgo, John C.

Recent localized declines in white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus) populations in the southeastern United States have been linked to increasing predation pressure from coyotes ( Canis latrans), a novel predator to the region. Studies have documented coyotes as the leading cause of mortality for neonates, and 1 study documented coyotes as a mortality factor for adult females. However, no study has used field-based vital rates to conduct sensitivity analyses or model deer population trajectories under potential harvest or predator removal strategies. We used low, medium, and high values of fawn survival, adult female survival, and fecundity data collected from Fortmore » Bragg Military Installation, North Carolina to demonstrate the current declining population trajectory for deer (λ = 0.905; low λ = 0.788, high λ = 1.003). Consistent with other studies of ungulates, we determined adult female survival was the most sensitive and elastic vital rate. Further, for 3 potential management (“what if”) scenarios, we projected the population for 10 years using estimated vital rates. Reducing adult female harvest (λ = 0.935; low λ = 0.875, high λ = 1.002) and coyote removal (λ = 0.995; low λ = 0.898, high λ = 1.081) reduced the current population decline, whereas combining both approaches (λ = 1.024; low λ = 0.898, high λ = 1.141) resulted in population increases. Our data indicate that for low-density deer populations with heavy predation pressure on neonates, protecting adult females from harvest may not completely offset population declines. Coyote removal might be a necessary strategy because it could possibly increase very low fawn survival, which appears to be the most important vital rate influencing λ in our study. However, managers may have to start with reductions in adult female harvest because coyote removal would have to be continuous and consistently effective, making it an impractical management approach by itself.« less

Quantifying humpback whale song sequences to understand the dynamics of song exchange at the ocean basin scale.

PubMed

Garland, Ellen C; Noad, Michael J; Goldizen, Anne W; Lilley, Matthew S; Rekdahl, Melinda L; Garrigue, Claire; Constantine, Rochelle; Daeschler Hauser, Nan; Poole, M Michael; Robbins, Jooke

2013-01-01

Humpback whales have a continually evolving vocal sexual display, or "song," that appears to undergo both evolutionary and "revolutionary" change. All males within a population adhere to the current content and arrangement of the song. Populations within an ocean basin share similarities in their songs; this sharing is complex as multiple variations of the song (song types) may be present within a region at any one time. To quantitatively investigate the similarity of song types, songs were compared at both the individual singer and population level using the Levenshtein distance technique and cluster analysis. The highly stereotyped sequences of themes from the songs of 211 individuals from populations within the western and central South Pacific region from 1998 through 2008 were grouped together based on the percentage of song similarity, and compared to qualitatively assigned song types. The analysis produced clusters of highly similar songs that agreed with previous qualitative assignments. Each cluster contained songs from multiple populations and years, confirming the eastward spread of song types and their progressive evolution through the study region. Quantifying song similarity and exchange will assist in understanding broader song dynamics and contribute to the use of vocal displays as population identifiers.

Detecting dynamical boundaries from kinematic data in biomechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, Shane D.; Tanaka, Martin L.; Senatore, Carmine

2010-03-01

Ridges in the state space distribution of finite-time Lyapunov exponents can be used to locate dynamical boundaries. We describe a method for obtaining dynamical boundaries using only trajectories reconstructed from time series, expanding on the current approach which requires a vector field in the phase space. We analyze problems in musculoskeletal biomechanics, considered as exemplars of a class of experimental systems that contain separatrix features. Particular focus is given to postural control and balance, considering both models and experimental data. Our success in determining the boundary between recovery and failure in human balance activities suggests this approach will provide new robust stability measures, as well as measures of fall risk, that currently are not available and may have benefits for the analysis and prevention of low back pain and falls leading to injury, both of which affect a significant portion of the population.

Conspecific and not performance-based attraction on immigrants drives colony growth in a waterbird.

PubMed

Tenan, Simone; Fasola, Mauro; Volponi, Stefano; Tavecchia, Giacomo

2017-09-01

Local recruitment and immigration play an important part in the dynamics and growth of animal populations. However, their estimation and incorporation into open population models is, in most cases, problematic. We studied factors affecting the growth of a recently established colony of Eurasian spoonbill (Platalea leucorodia) and assessed the contribution of local recruits, i.e. birds born in the colony, and immigrants, i.e. birds of unknown origin, to colony growth. We applied an integrated population model that accounts for uncertainty in breeding state assignment and merges population surveys, local fecundity and individual longitudinal data of breeding and non-breeding birds, to estimate demographic rates and the relative role of recruitment and immigration in driving the local dynamics. We also used this analytical framework to assess the degree of support for the 'performance-based' and 'conspecific attraction' hypotheses as possible mechanisms of colony growth. Among the demographic rates, only immigration was positively and significantly correlated with population growth rate. In addition, the number of immigrants settling in the colony was positively correlated with colony size in the previous and current year, but was not correlated with fecundity of the previous year. Our results suggest that the variation in immigration affected colony dynamics and that conspecific attraction likely triggered the relevant role of immigration in the growth of a recently formed waterbird colony, supporting the need of including immigration in population analysis. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Phenological patterns of Spodoptera Guenée, 1852 (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is more affected by ENSO than seasonal factors and host plant availability in a Brazilian Savanna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piovesan, Mônica; Specht, Alexandre; Carneiro, Eduardo; Paula-Moraes, Silvana Vieira; Casagrande, Mirna Martins

2018-03-01

The identification of factors responsible for the population dynamics is fundamental for pest management, since losses can reach 18% of annual production. Besides regular seasonal environmental factors and crop managements, additional supra-annual meteorological phenomena can also affect population dynamics, although its relevance has been rarely investigated. Among crop pests, Spodoptera stands out due to its worldwide distribution, high degree of polyphagy, thus causing damages in several crops in the world. Aiming to distinguish the relevance of different factors shaping population dynamics of Spodoptera in an ecosystem constituted of dry and rainy seasons, the current study used circular statistics to identify phenological patterns and test if its population fluctuation is driven by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect, seasonal meteorological parameters, and/or host plant availability. Samplings were done in an intercropping system, in the Brazilian Savanna, during the new moon cycles between July/2013 and June/2016. Species were recorded all year round, but demonstrated differently non-uniform distribution, being concentrated in different seasons of the year. Population fluctuations were mostly affected by the ENSO intensity, despite the contrasting seasonal meteorological variation or host plant availability in a 400-m radius. Studies involving the observation of supra-annual phenomena, although rare, reach similar conclusions in relation to Neotropical insect fauna. Therefore, it is paramount to have long-term sampling studies to obtain a more precise response of the pest populations towards the agroecosystem conditions.

A discrete stage-structured model of California newt population dynamics during a period of drought.

PubMed

Jones, Marjorie T; Milligan, William R; Kats, Lee B; Vandergon, Thomas L; Honeycutt, Rodney L; Fisher, Robert N; Davis, Courtney L; Lucas, Timothy A

2017-02-07

We introduce a mathematical model for studying the population dynamics under drought of the California newt (Taricha torosa), a species of special concern in the state of California. Since 2012, California has experienced a record-setting drought, and multiple studies predict drought conditions currently underway will persist and even increase in severity. Recent declines and local extinctions of California newt populations in Santa Monica Mountain streams motivate our study of the impact of drought on newt population sizes. Although newts are terrestrial salamanders, they migrate to streams each spring to breed and lay eggs. Since egg and larval stages occur in water, a precipitation deficit due to drought conditions reduces the space for newt egg-laying and the necessary habitat for larval development. To mathematically forecast newt population dynamics, we develop a nonlinear system of discrete equations that includes demographic parameters such as survival rates for newt life stages and egg production, which depend on habitat availability and rainfall. We estimate these demographic parameters using 15 years of stream survey data collected from Cold Creek in Los Angeles County, California, and our model captures the observed decline of the parameterized Cold Creek newt population. Based upon data analysis, we predict how the number of available newt egg-laying sites varies with annual precipitation. Our model allows us to make predictions about how the length and severity of drought can affect the likelihood of persistence and the time to critical endangerment of a local newt population. We predict that sustained severe drought will critically endanger the newt population but that the newt population can rebound if a drought is sufficiently short. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A discrete stage-structured model of California newt population dynamics during a period of drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Marjorie T.; Milligan, William R.; Kats, Lee B.; Vandergon, Thomas L.; Honeycutt, Rodney L.; Fisher, Robert N.; Davis, Courtney L.; Lucas, Timothy A.

2017-01-01

We introduce a mathematical model for studying the population dynamics under drought of the California newt (Taricha torosa), a species of special concern in the state of California. Since 2012, California has experienced a record-setting drought, and multiple studies predict drought conditions currently underway will persist and even increase in severity. Recent declines and local extinctions of California newt populations in Santa Monica Mountain streams motivate our study of the impact of drought on newt population sizes. Although newts are terrestrial salamanders, they migrate to streams each spring to breed and lay eggs. Since egg and larval stages occur in water, a precipitation deficit due to drought conditions reduces the space for newt egg-laying and the necessary habitat for larval development. To mathematically forecast newt population dynamics, we develop a nonlinear system of discrete equations that includes demographic parameters such as survival rates for newt life stages and egg production, which depend on habitat availability and rainfall. We estimate these demographic parameters using 15 years of stream survey data collected from Cold Creek in Los Angeles County, California, and our model captures the observed decline of the parameterized Cold Creek newt population. Based upon data analysis, we predict how the number of available newt egg-laying sites varies with annual precipitation. Our model allows us to make predictions about how the length and severity of drought can affect the likelihood of persistence and the time to critical endangerment of a local newt population. We predict that sustained severe drought will critically endanger the newt population but that the newt population can rebound if a drought is sufficiently short.

Integrative studies of cultural evolution: crossing disciplinary boundaries to produce new insights

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Culture evolves according to dynamics on multiple temporal scales, from individuals' minute-by-minute behaviour to millennia of cultural accumulation that give rise to population-level differences. These dynamics act on a range of entities—including behavioural sequences, ideas and artefacts as well as individuals, populations and whole species—and involve mechanisms at multiple levels, from neurons in brains to inter-population interactions. Studying such complex phenomena requires an integration of perspectives from a diverse array of fields, as well as bridging gaps between traditionally disparate areas of study. In this article, which also serves as an introduction to the current special issue, we highlight some specific respects in which the study of cultural evolution has benefited and should continue to benefit from an integrative approach. We showcase a number of pioneering studies of cultural evolution that bring together numerous disciplines. These studies illustrate the value of perspectives from different fields for understanding cultural evolution, such as cognitive science and neuroanatomy, behavioural ecology, population dynamics, and evolutionary genetics. They also underscore the importance of understanding cultural processes when interpreting research about human genetics, neuroscience, behaviour and evolution. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Bridging cultural gaps: interdisciplinary studies in human cultural evolution’. PMID:29440515

Integrative studies of cultural evolution: crossing disciplinary boundaries to produce new insights.

PubMed

Kolodny, Oren; Feldman, Marcus W; Creanza, Nicole

2018-04-05

Culture evolves according to dynamics on multiple temporal scales, from individuals' minute-by-minute behaviour to millennia of cultural accumulation that give rise to population-level differences. These dynamics act on a range of entities-including behavioural sequences, ideas and artefacts as well as individuals, populations and whole species-and involve mechanisms at multiple levels, from neurons in brains to inter-population interactions. Studying such complex phenomena requires an integration of perspectives from a diverse array of fields, as well as bridging gaps between traditionally disparate areas of study. In this article, which also serves as an introduction to the current special issue, we highlight some specific respects in which the study of cultural evolution has benefited and should continue to benefit from an integrative approach. We showcase a number of pioneering studies of cultural evolution that bring together numerous disciplines. These studies illustrate the value of perspectives from different fields for understanding cultural evolution, such as cognitive science and neuroanatomy, behavioural ecology, population dynamics, and evolutionary genetics. They also underscore the importance of understanding cultural processes when interpreting research about human genetics, neuroscience, behaviour and evolution.This article is part of the theme issue 'Bridging cultural gaps: interdisciplinary studies in human cultural evolution'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Spatio-temporal spawning and larval dynamics of a zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) population in a North Texas Reservoir: implications for invasions in the southern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Churchill, Christopher John

2013-01-01

Zebra mussels were first observed in Texas in 2009 in a reservoir (Lake Texoma) on the Texas-Oklahoma border. In 2012, an established population was found in a near-by reservoir, Ray Roberts Lake, and in June 2013, settled mussels were detected in a third north Texas reservoir, Lake Lewisville. An established population was detected in Belton Lake in September 2013. With the exception of Louisiana, these occurrences in Texas mark the current southern extent of the range of this species in the United States. Previous studies indicate that zebra mussel populations could be affected by environmental conditions, especially increased temperatures and extreme droughts, which are characteristic of surface waters of the southern and southwestern United States. Data collected during the first three years (2010–12) of a long-term monitoring program were analyzed to determine if spatio-temporal zebra mussel spawning and larval dynamics were related to physicochemical water properties in Lake Texoma. Reproductive output of the local population was significantly related to water temperature and lake elevation. Estimated mean date of first spawn in Lake Texoma was approximately 1.5 months earlier and peak veliger densities were observed two months earlier than in Lake Erie. Annual maximum veliger density declined significantly during the study period (p < 0.0001). A population crash occurred as a result of thermal stress and variability of lake elevation. In summer 2011, water temperatures peaked at 34.3°C and lake elevation declined to the lowest level recorded during the previous 18 years, which resulted in desiccation of substantial numbers of settled mussels in littoral zones. Veliger spatial distributions were associated with physicochemical stratification characteristics. Veligers were observed in the deepest oxygenated water after lake stratification, which occurred in late spring. Results of this study indicate environmental conditions can influence variability of population sizes and spatial distributions of zebra mussels along the current southern frontier of their geographic range. Although the future population size trajectory and geographic range are uncertain, increased temperatures and intermittent, extreme droughts likely will affect spatio-temporal dynamics of established populations if zebra mussels spread farther into the southern and southwestern United States.

Life history and dynamics of a platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus) population: four decades of mark-recapture surveys

PubMed Central

Bino, Gilad; Grant, Tom R.; Kingsford, Richard T.

2015-01-01

Knowledge of the life-history and population dynamics of Australia’s iconic and evolutionarily distinct platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus) remains poor. We marked-recaptured 812 unique platypuses (total 1,622 captures), over four decades (1973–2014) in the Shoalhaven River, Australia. Strong sex-age differences were observed in life-history, including morphology and longevity. Apparent survival of adult females (Φ = 0.76) were higher than adult males (Φ = 0.57), as in juveniles: females Φ = 0.27, males Φ = 0.13. Females were highly likely to remain in the same pool (adult: P = 0.85, juvenile: P = 0.88), while residency rates were lower for males (adult: P = 0.74, juvenile: P = 0.46). We combined survival, movement and life-histories to develop population viability models and test the impact of a range of life-history parameters. While using estimated apparent survival produced unviable populations (mean population growth rate r = −0.23, extinction within 20 years), considering residency rates to adjust survival estimates, indicated more stable populations (r = 0.004, p = 0.04 of 100-year extinction). Further sensitivity analyses highlighted adult female survival and overall success of dispersal as most affecting viability. Findings provide robust life-history and viability estimates for a difficult study species. These could support developing large-scale population dynamics models required to underpin a much needed national risk assessment for the platypus, already declining in parts of its current distribution. PMID:26536832

Life history and dynamics of a platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus) population: four decades of mark-recapture surveys.

PubMed

Bino, Gilad; Grant, Tom R; Kingsford, Richard T

2015-11-05

Knowledge of the life-history and population dynamics of Australia's iconic and evolutionarily distinct platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus) remains poor. We marked-recaptured 812 unique platypuses (total 1,622 captures), over four decades (1973-2014) in the Shoalhaven River, Australia. Strong sex-age differences were observed in life-history, including morphology and longevity. Apparent survival of adult females (Φ = 0.76) were higher than adult males (Φ = 0.57), as in juveniles: females Φ = 0.27, males Φ = 0.13. Females were highly likely to remain in the same pool (adult: P = 0.85, juvenile: P = 0.88), while residency rates were lower for males (adult: P = 0.74, juvenile: P = 0.46). We combined survival, movement and life-histories to develop population viability models and test the impact of a range of life-history parameters. While using estimated apparent survival produced unviable populations (mean population growth rate r = -0.23, extinction within 20 years), considering residency rates to adjust survival estimates, indicated more stable populations (r = 0.004, p = 0.04 of 100-year extinction). Further sensitivity analyses highlighted adult female survival and overall success of dispersal as most affecting viability. Findings provide robust life-history and viability estimates for a difficult study species. These could support developing large-scale population dynamics models required to underpin a much needed national risk assessment for the platypus, already declining in parts of its current distribution.

Dynamics and life histories of northern ungulates in changing environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendrichsen, D. K.

2011-12-01

Regional climate and local weather conditions can profoundly influence life history parameters (growth, survival, fecundity) and population dynamics in northern ungulates (Post and Stenseth 1999, Coulson et al. 2001). The influence is both direct, for example through reduced growth or survival (Aanes et al. 2000, Tyler et al. 2008), and indirect, for example through changes in resource distribution, phenology and quality, changes which subsequently influence consumer dynamics (Post et al. 2008). By comparing and contrasting data from three spatially independent populations of ungulates, I discuss how variation in local weather parameters and vegetation growth influence spatial and temporal dynamics through changes in life history parameters and/or behavioural dynamics. The data originate from long term (11-15 years) monitoring data from three populations of ungulates in one subarctic and two high Arctic sites; semi-domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) in northern Norway, Svalbard reindeer (R. t. platyrhynchus) on Spitsbergen and muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) in Northeast Greenland. The results show that juvenile animals can be particularly vulnerable to changes in their environment, and that this is mirrored to different degrees in the spatio-temporal dynamics of the three populations. Adverse weather conditions, acting either directly or mediated through access to and quality of vegetation, experienced by young early in life, or even by their dams during pregnancy, can lead to reduced growth, lower survival and reduced reproductive performance later in life. The influence of current climatic variation, and the predictions of how local weather conditions may change over time, differs between the three sites, resulting in potentially different responses in the three populations. Aanes R, Saether BE and Øritsland NA. 2000. Fluctuations of an introduced population of Svalbard reindeer: the effects of density dependence and climatic variation. Ecography, 23: 437-443 Coulson T, Catchpole EA, Albon SD, Morgan BJT, Pemberton JM, Clutton-Brock TH, Crawley MJ and Grenfell BT. 2001. Age, sex, density, winter weather, and population crashes in Soay sheep. Science, 292: 1528-1531 Post, E and Stenseth NC. 1999. Climatic variability, plant phenology, and northern ungulates. Ecology, 80: 1322-1339 Post E, Pedersen C, Wilmers CC and Forchhammer MC. 2008. Warming, plant phenology and the spatial dimension of trophic mismatch for large herbivores. Proc. Roy Soc. B., 275: 2005-2013 Tyler NJC, Forchhammer MC and Øritsland NA. 2008. Nonlinear effects of climate and density in the dynamics of a fluctuating population of reindeer. Ecology, 89: 1675-1686

Genetic and environmental control of seasonal carbohydrate dynamics in trees of diverse Pinus sylvestris populations.

PubMed

Oleksyn, J.; Zytkowiak, R.; Karolewski, P.; Reich, P. B.; Tjoelker, M. G.

2000-06-01

We explored environmental and genetic factors affecting seasonal dynamics of starch and soluble nonstructural carbohydrates in needle and twig cohorts and roots of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) trees of six populations originating between 49 degrees and 60 degrees N, and grown under common garden conditions in western Poland. Trees of each population were sampled once or twice per month over a 3-year period from age 15 to 17 years. Based on similarity in starch concentration patterns in needles, two distinct groups of populations were identified; one comprised northern populations from Sweden and Russia (59-60 degrees N), and another comprised central European populations from Latvia, Poland, Germany and France (49-56 degrees N). Needle starch concentrations of northern populations started to decline in late spring and reached minimum values earlier than those of central populations. For all populations, starch accumulation in spring started when minimum air temperature permanently exceeded 0 degrees C. Starch accumulation peaked before bud break and was highest in 1-year-old needles, averaging 9-13% of dry mass. Soluble carbohydrate concentrations were lowest in spring and summer and highest in autumn and winter. There were no differences among populations in seasonal pattern of soluble carbohydrate concentrations. Averaged across all populations, needle soluble carbohydrate concentrations increased from about 4% of needle dry mass in developing current-year needles, to about 9% in 1- and 2-year-old needles. Root carbohydrate concentration exhibited a bimodal pattern with peaks in spring and autumn. Northern populations had higher concentrations of fine-root starch in spring and autumn than central populations. Late-summer carbohydrate accumulation in roots started only after depletion of starch in needles and woody shoots. We conclude that Scots pine carbohydrate dynamics depend partially on inherited properties that are probably related to phenology of root and shoot growth.

Turnover of Village Chickens Undermines Vaccine Coverage to Control HPAI H5N1.

PubMed

Villanueva-Cabezas, J P; Campbell, P T; McCaw, J M; Durr, P A; McVernon, J

2017-02-01

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 remains an enzootic disease of village chickens in Indonesia, posing ongoing risk at the animal-human interface. Previous modelling showed that the fast natural turnover of chicken populations might undermine herd immunity after vaccination, although actual details of how this effect applies to Indonesia's village chicken population have not been determined. We explored the turnover effect in Indonesia's scavenging and mixed populations of village chickens using an extended Leslie matrix model parameterized with data collected from village chicken flocks in Java region, Indonesia. Population dynamics were simulated for 208 weeks; the turnover effect was simulated for 16 weeks after vaccination in two 'best case' scenarios, where the whole population (scenario 1), or birds aged over 14 days (scenario 2), were vaccinated. We found that the scavenging and mixed populations have different productive traits. When steady-state dynamics are reached, both populations are dominated by females (54.5%), and 'growers' and 'chicks' represent the most abundant age stages with 39% and 38% in the scavenging, and 60% and 25% in the mixed population, respectively. Simulations showed that the population turnover might reduce the herd immunity below the critical threshold that prevents the re-emergence of HPAI H5N1 4-8 weeks (scavenging) and 6-9 weeks (mixed population) after vaccination in scenario 1, and 2-6 weeks (scavenging) and 4-7 weeks (mixed population) after vaccination in scenario 2. In conclusion, we found that Indonesia's village chicken population does not have a unique underlying population dynamic and therefore, different turnover effects on herd immunity may be expected after vaccination; nonetheless, our simulations carried out in best case scenarios highlight the limitations of current vaccine technologies to control HPAI H5N1. This suggests that the improvements and complementary strategies are necessary and must be explored. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Exploring Migratory Dynamics on HIV Transmission: The Case of Mexicans in New York City and Puebla, Mexico

PubMed Central

Guilamo-Ramos, Vincent; McCarthy, Katharine; Muñoz-Laboy, Miguel A.; de Lourdes Rosas López, Maria

2014-01-01

Migration and population movement are increasingly viewed as important factors associated with HIV transmission risk. With growing awareness of the potential impact of migration on HIV transmission, several perspectives have emerged that posit differing dynamics of risk. We considered available data on the role of migration on HIV transmission among Mexican migrants in New York City and Puebla, Mexico. Specifically, we examined 3 distinct models of migratory dynamics of HIV transmission—namely, the structural model, the local contextual model, and the interplay model. In doing so, we reframed current public health perspectives on the role of migration on HIV transmission. PMID:24825203

The Doctor-Patient Relationship: A Model for Senior Leaders

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-04-21

accessible, high quality, affordable health care. In working towards this goal, to ignore or discount the contributions from the dynamics of the model is a...order to stay current in practice. Another source of pressure to stay current is working along side fellow physicians. The expectations of peers can...candidate in the served patient population. P t the case of pressure for income production, if a patient can benefit from a procedure even when less

Spatial and temporal variation in population genetic structure of wild Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) across Africa

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Reconstructing the evolutionary history of a species is challenging. It often depends not only on the past biogeographic and climatic events but also the contemporary and ecological factors, such as current connectivity and habitat heterogeneity. In fact, these factors might interact with each other and shape the current species distribution. However, to what extent the current population genetic structure reflects the past and the contemporary factors is largely unknown. Here we investigated spatio-temporal genetic structures of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) populations, across their natural distribution in Africa. While its large biogeographic distribution can cause genetic differentiation at the paleo-biogeographic scales, its restricted dispersal capacity might induce a strong genetic structure at micro-geographic scales. Results Using nine microsatellite loci and 350 samples from ten natural populations, we found the highest genetic differentiation among the three ichthyofaunal provinces and regions (Ethiopian, Nilotic and Sudano-Sahelian) (RST = 0.38 - 0.69). This result suggests the predominant effect of paleo-geographic events at macro-geographic scale. In addition, intermediate divergences were found between rivers and lakes within the regions, presumably reflecting relatively recent interruptions of gene flow between hydrographic basins (RST = 0.24 - 0.32). The lowest differentiations were observed among connected populations within a basin (RST = 0.015 in the Volta basin). Comparison of temporal sample series revealed subtle changes in the gene pools in a few generations (F = 0 - 0.053). The estimated effective population sizes were 23 - 143 and the estimated migration rate was moderate (m ~ 0.094 - 0.097) in the Volta populations. Conclusions This study revealed clear hierarchical patterns of the population genetic structuring of O. niloticus in Africa. The effects of paleo-geographic and climatic events were predominant at macro-geographic scale, and the significant effect of geographic connectivity was detected at micro-geographic scale. The estimated effective population size, the moderate level of dispersal and the rapid temporal change in genetic composition might reflect a potential effect of life history strategy on population dynamics. This hypothesis deserves further investigation. The dynamic pattern revealed at micro-geographic and temporal scales appears important from a genetic resource management as well as from a biodiversity conservation point of view. PMID:22151746

Rocky Mountain Center for Conservation Genetics and Systematics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oyler-McCance, S.J.; Quinn, T.W.

2005-01-01

The use of molecular genetic tools has become increasingly important in addressing conservation issues pertaining to plants and animals. Genetic information can be used to augment studies of population dynamics and population viability, investigate systematic, refine taxonomic definitions, investigate population structure and gene flow, and document genetic diversity in a variety of plant and animal species. Further, genetic techniques are being used to investigate mating systems through paternity analysis, and analyze ancient DNA samples from museum specimens, and estimate population size and survival rates using DNA as a unique marker. Such information is essential for the sound management of small, isolated populations of concern and is currently being used by universities, zoos, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and numerous state fish and wildlife agencies.

Colonization in North American Arid Lands: The Journey of Agarito (Berberis trifoliolata) Revealed by Multilocus Molecular Data and Packrat Midden Fossil Remains

PubMed Central

Angulo, Diego F.; Amarilla, Leonardo D.; Anton, Ana M.; Sosa, Victoria

2017-01-01

Here we conduct research to understand the evolutionary history of a shrubby species known as Agarito (Berberis trifoliolata), an endemic species to the Chihuahuan Desert. We identify genetic signatures based on plastid DNA and AFLP markers and perform niche modelling and spatial connectivity analyses as well as niche modelling based on records in packrats to elucidate whether orogenic events such as mountain range uplift in the Miocene or the contraction/expansion dynamics of vegetation in response to climate oscillations in the Pliocene/Pleistocene had an effect on evolutionary processes in Agarito. Our results of current niche modelling and palaeomodelling showed that the area currently occupied by Berberis trifoliolata is substantially larger than it was during the Last Interglacial period and the Last Glacial Maximum. Agarito was probably confined to small areas in the Northeastern and gradually expanded its distribution just after the Last Glacial Maximum when the weather in the Chihuahuan Desert and adjacent regions became progressively warmer and drier. The most contracted range was predicted for the Interglacial period. Populations remained in stable areas during the Last Glacial Maximum and expanded at the beginning of the Holocene. Most genetic variation occured in populations from the Sierra Madre Oriental. Two groups of haplotypes were identified: the Mexican Plateau populations and certain Northeastern populations. Haplogroups were spatially connected during the Last Glacial Maximum and separated during interglacial periods. The most important prediction of packrat middens palaeomodelling lies in the Mexican Plateau, a finding congruent with current and past niche modelling predictions for agarito and genetic results. Our results corroborate that these climate changes in the Pliocene/Pleistocene affected the evolutionary history of agarito. The journey of agarito in the Chihuahuan Desert has been dynamic, expanding and contracting its distribution range and currently occupying the largest area in its history. PMID:28146559

‘Activity-silent’ working memory in prefrontal cortex: a dynamic coding framework

PubMed Central

Stokes, Mark G.

2015-01-01

Working memory (WM) provides the functional backbone to high-level cognition. Maintenance in WM is often assumed to depend on the stationary persistence of neural activity patterns that represent memory content. However, accumulating evidence suggests that persistent delay activity does not always accompany WM maintenance but instead seems to wax and wane as a function of the current task relevance of memoranda. Furthermore, new methods for measuring and analysing population-level patterns show that activity states are highly dynamic. At first glance, these dynamics seem at odds with the very nature of WM. How can we keep a stable thought in mind while brain activity is constantly changing? This review considers how neural dynamics might be functionally important for WM maintenance. PMID:26051384

Individual heterogeneity in life histories and eco-evolutionary dynamics

PubMed Central

Vindenes, Yngvild; Langangen, Øystein

2015-01-01

Individual heterogeneity in life history shapes eco-evolutionary processes, and unobserved heterogeneity can affect demographic outputs characterising life history and population dynamical properties. Demographic frameworks like matrix models or integral projection models represent powerful approaches to disentangle mechanisms linking individual life histories and population-level processes. Recent developments have provided important steps towards their application to study eco-evolutionary dynamics, but so far individual heterogeneity has largely been ignored. Here, we present a general demographic framework that incorporates individual heterogeneity in a flexible way, by separating static and dynamic traits (discrete or continuous). First, we apply the framework to derive the consequences of ignoring heterogeneity for a range of widely used demographic outputs. A general conclusion is that besides the long-term growth rate lambda, all parameters can be affected. Second, we discuss how the framework can help advance current demographic models of eco-evolutionary dynamics, by incorporating individual heterogeneity. For both applications numerical examples are provided, including an empirical example for pike. For instance, we demonstrate that predicted demographic responses to climate warming can be reversed by increased heritability. We discuss how applications of this demographic framework incorporating individual heterogeneity can help answer key biological questions that require a detailed understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics. PMID:25807980

Mathematical modelling methodologies in predictive food microbiology: a SWOT analysis.

PubMed

Ferrer, Jordi; Prats, Clara; López, Daniel; Vives-Rego, Josep

2009-08-31

Predictive microbiology is the area of food microbiology that attempts to forecast the quantitative evolution of microbial populations over time. This is achieved to a great extent through models that include the mechanisms governing population dynamics. Traditionally, the models used in predictive microbiology are whole-system continuous models that describe population dynamics by means of equations applied to extensive or averaged variables of the whole system. Many existing models can be classified by specific criteria. We can distinguish between survival and growth models by seeing whether they tackle mortality or cell duplication. We can distinguish between empirical (phenomenological) models, which mathematically describe specific behaviour, and theoretical (mechanistic) models with a biological basis, which search for the underlying mechanisms driving already observed phenomena. We can also distinguish between primary, secondary and tertiary models, by examining their treatment of the effects of external factors and constraints on the microbial community. Recently, the use of spatially explicit Individual-based Models (IbMs) has spread through predictive microbiology, due to the current technological capacity of performing measurements on single individual cells and thanks to the consolidation of computational modelling. Spatially explicit IbMs are bottom-up approaches to microbial communities that build bridges between the description of micro-organisms at the cell level and macroscopic observations at the population level. They provide greater insight into the mesoscale phenomena that link unicellular and population levels. Every model is built in response to a particular question and with different aims. Even so, in this research we conducted a SWOT (Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the different approaches (population continuous modelling and Individual-based Modelling), which we hope will be helpful for current and future researchers.

VESUVIUS PENTALOGUE: Interdisciplinary Science for Disaster Resilience and Sustainability of Populations Surrounding Vesuvius

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobran, F.

2015-12-01

VESUVIUS PENTALOGUE is an elaboration of VESUVIUS 2000 scientific initiative aimed at volcanic risk reduction in the Vesuvius area. Its 5 building blocks are: (1) The current strategy of volcanic risk management (massive deportation of population) is both problematic and unacceptable. (2) A continuing close habitation of the population with the volcano should be the crucial cultural point to be pursued. This can be accomplished through a redefinition of the danger zone around Summa-Vesuvius as follows: (a) An exclusion nucleus should be established that prohibits all future human settlements and discourage the existing ones; (b) A resilience belt, housing most of the current population, should be established; (c) A sustainable area should be established beyond the resilience belt, allowing for both sustainable practices and temporary resettlements of the "resilience belt" citizens. (3) The built environment construction codes for the population of the danger zone should be established by utilizing Plinian eruption scenarios, scenario-based seismic hazard assessment and zonation, (c) dynamic structural analyses, (d) global volcanic simulations modeling of thermo-fluid dynamic eruption processes. (4) The volcanic risk information and education should involve an effective volcanic risk information campaign and active public preparedness strategy. This should be implemented for the exclusion nucleus, resilience belt, and sustainable area regions surrounding Summa-Vesuvius. A Volcanic Risk Education Safety Program should be implemented in all schools located within each of the above areas surrounding the volcano. (5)The political Authorities and the scientific community should produce a "memorandum of understanding" that univocally establishes an effective collaboration, and periodic progress reports that keep the populations informed on the improvements leading to the realization of the above objectives. For further details see www.gvess.org.

Assessing Changes in Amphibian Population Dynamics Following Experimental Manipulations of Introduced Fish

Treesearch

Karen L. Pope

2008-01-01

Sport-fish introductions are now recognized as an important cause of amphibian decline, but few researchers have quantified the demographic responses of amphibians to current options in fisheries management designed to minimize effects on sensitive amphibians. Demographic analyses with mark–recapture data allow researchers to assess the relative importance of...

California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations Reports

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olfe, J.; Lang, C.; Vernet, M.

1989-10-01

This document contains 15 papers. Topics include a review of some California fisheries, spawning biomass of the northern anchovy, marine fisheries, habitat alterations, fishery management, reproduction, population dynamics, acoustic Doppler currents and sea lion interaction and depredation. Each paper will be indexed and entered separately on the energy data base. 54 figs., 29 tabs. (KD)

DNA-based approach to aging martens (Martes americana and M. caurina)

Treesearch

Jonathan N. Pauli; John P. Whiteman; Bruce G. Marcot; Terry M. McClean; Merav Ben-David

2011-01-01

Demographic structure is central to understanding the dynamics of animal populations. However, determining the age of free-ranging mammals is difficult, and currently impossible when sampling with noninvasive, genetic-based approaches. We present a method to estimate age class by combining measures of telomere lengths with other biologically meaningful covariates in a...

Habitat continuity and stepping-stone oceanographic distances explain population genetic connectivity of the brown alga Cystoseira amentacea.

PubMed

Buonomo, Roberto; Assis, Jorge; Fernandes, Francisco; Engelen, Aschwin H; Airoldi, Laura; Serrão, Ester A

2017-02-01

Effective predictive and management approaches for species occurring in a metapopulation structure require good understanding of interpopulation connectivity. In this study, we ask whether population genetic structure of marine species with fragmented distributions can be predicted by stepping-stone oceanographic transport and habitat continuity, using as model an ecosystem-structuring brown alga, Cystoseira amentacea var. stricta. To answer this question, we analysed the genetic structure and estimated the connectivity of populations along discontinuous rocky habitat patches in southern Italy, using microsatellite markers at multiple scales. In addition, we modelled the effect of rocky habitat continuity and ocean circulation on gene flow by simulating Lagrangian particle dispersal based on ocean surface currents allowing multigenerational stepping-stone dynamics. Populations were highly differentiated, at scales from few metres up to thousands of kilometres. The best possible model fit to explain the genetic results combined current direction, rocky habitat extension and distance along the coast among rocky sites. We conclude that a combination of variable suitable habitat and oceanographic transport is a useful predictor of genetic structure. This relationship provides insight into the mechanisms of dispersal and the role of life-history traits. Our results highlight the importance of spatially explicit modelling of stepping-stone dynamics and oceanographic directional transport coupled with habitat suitability, to better describe and predict marine population structure and differentiation. This study also suggests the appropriate spatial scales for the conservation, restoration and management of species that are increasingly affected by habitat modifications. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modelling the effect of an alternative host population on the spread of citrus Huanglongbing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

d'A. Vilamiu, Raphael G.; Ternes, Sonia; Laranjeira, Francisco F.; de C. Santos, Tâmara T.

2013-10-01

The objective of this work was to model the spread of citrus Huanglongbing (HLB) considering the presence of a population of alternative hosts (Murraya paniculata). We developed a compartmental deterministic mathematical model for representing the dynamics of HLB disease in a citrus orchard, including delays in the latency and incubation phases of the disease in the plants and a delay period on the nymphal stage of Diaphorina citri, the insect vector of HLB in Brazil. The results of numerical simulations indicate that alternative hosts should not play a crucial role on HLB dynamics considering a typical scenario for the Recôncavo Baiano region in Brazil . Also, the current policy of removing symptomatic plants every three months should not be expected to significantly hinder HLB spread.

Can an ankle-foot orthosis change hearts and minds?

PubMed

Patzkowski, Jeanne C; Blanck, Ryan V; Owens, Johnny G; Wilken, Jason M; Blair, James A; Hsu, Joseph R

2011-01-01

The current military conflicts of Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom have been characterized by high-energy explosive wounding patterns, with the majority affecting the extremities. While many injuries have resulted in amputation, surgical advances have allowed the orthopaedic surgeon to pursue limb salvage in the face of injuries once considered unsalvageable. The military limb salvage patient is frequently highly active and motivated and expresses significant frustration with the slow nature of limb salvage rehabilitation and continued functional deficits. Inspired by these patients, efforts at this institution began to provide them with a more dynamic orthosis. Utilizing techniques and technology resulting from cerebral palsy, stroke, and amputation research, the Intrepid Dynamic Exoskeletal Orthosis was created. To date, this device has significantly improved the functional capabilities of the limb salvage wounded warrior population when combined with a high-intensity rehabilitation program. Clinical and biomechanical research is currently underway at this institution in order to fully characterize the device, its effect on patients, and what can be done to modify future generations of the device to best serve the combat-wounded limb salvage population.

Biogeographical role of the Kuroshio Current in the amphibious mudskipper Periophthalmus modestus indicated by mitochondrial DNA data.

PubMed

He, Lijun; Mukai, Takahiko; Hou Chu, Ka; Ma, Qiang; Zhang, Jing

2015-10-28

Quaternary climatic cycles have influenced marine organisms' spatial distribution and population dynamics. This study aimed to elucidate the evolutionary influences of contemporary and glacial physical barriers on the population structure, demography and colonization history of the mudskipper (Periophthalmus modestus) based on a mitochondrial gene segment (ND5) from 131 individual fish sampled in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. The current Kuroshio Current and the glacial exposure of the Taiwan Strait appeared to have restricted migration among the South China Sea, coastal East China and Japan. However, genetic homogeneity (Nm>1) also suggested contemporary larval transportation by sea circulation between the East China Sea and the South China Sea or historical dispersal along the glacial exposed shoreline among China, Japan and the Ryukyu Islands. Evolutionary signals of the strengthened East Asian Summer Monsoon in the mid-Pleistocene and regional difference in intertidal primary productions were indicated by a late-Pleistocene population expansion of P. modestus with a higher effective population size in the South China Sea than in the East China Sea. Furthermore, a potential colonization origin from the South China Sea was consistently inferred by different clues, including the populations' coalescence times, the ancestral haplotype distribution, the number of private haplotypes and species/genetic diversity.

The Current and Historical Distribution of Special Status Amphibians at the Livermore Site and Site 300

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hattem, M V; Paterson, L; Woollett, J

2008-08-20

65 surveys were completed in 2002 to assess the current distribution of special status amphibians at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's (LLNL) Livermore Site and Site 300. Combined with historical information from previous years, the information presented herein illustrates the dynamic and probable risk that amphibian populations face at both sites. The Livermore Site is developed and in stark contrast to the mostly undeveloped Site 300. Yet both sites have significant issues threatening the long-term sustainability of their respective amphibian populations. Livermore Site amphibians are presented with a suite of challenges inherent of urban interfaces, most predictably the bullfrog (Ranamore » catesbeiana), while Site 300's erosion issues and periodic feral pig (Sus scrofa) infestations reduce and threaten populations. The long-term sustainability of LLNL's special status amphibians will require active management and resource commitment to maintain and restore amphibian habitat at both sites.« less

A Bibliometric Analysis on Cancer Population Science with Topic Modeling.

PubMed

Li, Ding-Cheng; Rastegar-Mojarad, Majid; Okamoto, Janet; Liu, Hongfang; Leichow, Scott

2015-01-01

Bibliometric analysis is a research method used in library and information science to evaluate research performance. It applies quantitative and statistical analyses to describe patterns observed in a set of publications and can help identify previous, current, and future research trends or focus. To better guide our institutional strategic plan in cancer population science, we conducted bibliometric analysis on publications of investigators currently funded by either Division of Cancer Preventions (DCP) or Division of Cancer Control and Population Science (DCCPS) at National Cancer Institute. We applied two topic modeling techniques: author topic modeling (AT) and dynamic topic modeling (DTM). Our initial results show that AT can address reasonably the issues related to investigators' research interests, research topic distributions and popularities. In compensation, DTM can address the evolving trend of each topic by displaying the proportion changes of key words, which is consistent with the changes of MeSH headings.

Population Dynamics of Early Human Migration in Britain

PubMed Central

Vahia, Mayank N.; Ladiwala, Uma; Mahathe, Pavan; Mathur, Deepak

2016-01-01

Background Early human migration is largely determined by geography and human needs. These are both deterministic parameters when small populations move into unoccupied areas where conflicts and large group dynamics are not important. The early period of human migration into the British Isles provides such a laboratory which, because of its relative geographical isolation, may allow some insights into the complex dynamics of early human migration and interaction. Method and Results We developed a simulation code based on human affinity to habitable land, as defined by availability of water sources, altitude, and flatness of land, in choosing the path of migration. Movement of people on the British island over the prehistoric period from their initial entry points was simulated on the basis of data from the megalithic period. Topographical and hydro-shed data from satellite databases was used to define habitability, based on distance from water bodies, flatness of the terrain, and altitude above sea level. We simulated population movement based on assumptions of affinity for more habitable places, with the rate of movement tempered by existing populations. We compared results of our computer simulations with genetic data and show that our simulation can predict fairly accurately the points of contacts between different migratory paths. Such comparison also provides more detailed information about the path of peoples’ movement over ~2000 years before the present era. Conclusions We demonstrate an accurate method to simulate prehistoric movements of people based upon current topographical satellite data. Our findings are validated by recently-available genetic data. Our method may prove useful in determining early human population dynamics even when no genetic information is available. PMID:27148959

The evolutionary dynamics of canid and mongoose rabies virus in Southern Africa.

PubMed

Davis, P L; Rambaut, A; Bourhy, H; Holmes, E C

2007-01-01

Two variants of rabies virus (RABV) currently circulate in southern Africa: canid RABV, mainly associated with dogs, jackals, and bat-eared foxes, and mongoose RABV. To investigate the evolutionary dynamics of these variants, we performed coalescent-based analyses of the G-L inter-genic region, allowing for rate variation among viral lineages through the use of a relaxed molecular clock. This revealed that mongoose RABV is evolving more slowly than canid RABV, with mean evolutionary rates of 0.826 and 1.676 x 10(-3) nucleotide substitutions per site, per year, respectively. Additionally, mongoose RABV exhibits older genetic diversity than canid RABV, with common ancestors dating to 73 and 30 years, respectively, and while mongoose RABV has experienced exponential population growth over its evolutionary history in Africa, populations of canid RABV have maintained a constant size. Hence, despite circulating in the same geographic region, these two variants of RABV exhibit striking differences in evolutionary dynamics which are likely to reflect differences in their underlying ecology.

The role of hyperparasitism in microbial pathogen ecology and evolution.

PubMed

Parratt, Steven R; Laine, Anna-Liisa

2016-08-01

Many micro-organisms employ a parasitic lifestyle and, through their antagonistic interactions with host populations, have major impacts on human, agricultural and natural ecosystems. Most pathogens are likely to host parasites of their own, that is, hyperparasites, but how nested chains of parasites impact on disease dynamics is grossly neglected in the ecological and evolutionary literature. In this minireview we argue that the diversity and dynamics of micro-hyperparasites are an important component of natural host-pathogen systems. We use the current literature from a handful of key systems to show that observed patterns of pathogen virulence and disease dynamics may well be influenced by hyperparasites. Exploring these factors will shed light on many aspects of microbial ecology and disease biology, including resistance-virulence evolution, apparent competition, epidemiology and ecosystem stability. Considering the importance of hyperparasites in natural populations will have applied consequences for the field of biological control and therapeutic science, where hyperparastism is employed as a control mechanism but not necessarily ecologically understood.

The impacts of climate change on the abundance and distribution of the Spotted Wing Drosophila (Drosophila suzukii) in the United States and Canada

PubMed Central

Arteca, Ellen M.; Newman, Jonathan A.

2017-01-01

D. suzukii is a relatively recent and destructive pest species to the North American soft-skinned fruit industry. Understanding this species’ potential to shift in abundance and range due to changing climate is an important part of an effective mitigation and management strategy. We parameterized a temperature-driven D. suzukii population dynamics model using temperature data derived from several Global Circulation Models (CMIP5) with a range of relative concentration pathway (RCP) predictions. Mean consensus between the models suggest that without adaptation to both higher prolonged temperatures and higher short-term temperature events D. suzukii population levels are likely to drop in currently higher-risk regions. The potential drop in population is evident both as time progresses and as the severity of the RCP scenario increases. Some regions, particularly in northern latitudes, may experience increased populations due to milder winter and more developmentally-ideal summer conditions, but many of these regions are not currently known for soft-skinned fruit production and so the effects of this population increase may not have a significant impact. PMID:28396828

A Dynamic Simulation Model of Land-Use, Population, and Rural Livelihoods in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garedew, Efrem; Sandewall, Mats; Soderberg, Ulf

2012-01-01

The dynamic interactions between society and land resources have to be taken into account when planning and managing natural resources. A computer model, using STELLA software, was developed through active participation of purposively selected farm households from different wealth groups, age groups and gender within a rural community and some members of Kebelle council. The aim of the modeling was to study the perceived changes in land-use, population and livelihoods over the next 30 years and to improve our understanding of the interactions among them. The modeling output is characterized by rapid population growth, declining farm size and household incomes, deteriorating woody vegetation cover and worsening land degradation if current conditions remain. However, through integrated intervention strategies (including forest increase, micro-finance, family planning, health and education) the woody vegetation cover is likely to increase in the landscape, population growth is likely to slow down and households' income is likely to improve. A validation assessment of the simulation model based on historical data on land-use and population from 1973 to 2006 showed that the model is relatively robust. We conclude that as a supporting tool, the simulation model can contribute to the decision making process.

'Tales of Symphonia': extinction dynamics in response to past climate change in Madagascan rainforests.

PubMed

Virah-Sawmy, Malika; Bonsall, Michael B; Willis, Katherine J

2009-12-23

Madagascar's rainforests are among the most biodiverse in the world. Understanding the population dynamics of important species within these forests in response to past climatic variability provides valuable insight into current and future species composition. Here, we use a population-level approach to analyse palaeoecological records over the last 5300 years to understand how populations of Symphonia cf. verrucosa became locally extinct in some rainforest fragments along the southeast coast of Madagascar in response to rapid climate change, yet persisted in others. Our results indicate that regional (climate) variability contributed to synchronous decline of S. cf. verrucosa populations in these forests. Superimposed on regional fluctuations were local processes that could have contributed or mitigated extinction. Specifically, in the forest with low soil nutrients, population model predictions indicated that there was coexistence between S. cf. verrucosa and Erica spp., but in the nutrient-rich forest, interspecific effects between Symphonia and Erica spp. may have pushed Symphonia to extinction at the peak of climatic change. We also demonstrate that Symphonia is a good indicator of a threshold event, exhibiting erratic fluctuations prior to and long after the critical climatic point has passed.

Identifying Cost-Effective Dynamic Policies to Control Epidemics

PubMed Central

Yaesoubi, Reza; Cohen, Ted

2016-01-01

We describe a mathematical decision model for identifying dynamic health policies for controlling epidemics. These dynamic policies aim to select the best current intervention based on accumulating epidemic data and the availability of resources at each decision point. We propose an algorithm to approximate dynamic policies that optimize the population’s net health benefit, a performance measure which accounts for both health and monetary outcomes. We further illustrate how dynamic policies can be defined and optimized for the control of a novel viral pathogen, where a policy maker must decide (i) when to employ or lift a transmission-reducing intervention (e.g. school closure) and (ii) how to prioritize population members for vaccination when a limited quantity of vaccines first become available. Within the context of this application, we demonstrate that dynamic policies can produce higher net health benefit than more commonly described static policies that specify a pre-determined sequence of interventions to employ throughout epidemics. PMID:27449759

An investigation of emotion dynamics in major depressive disorder patients and healthy persons using sparse longitudinal networks.

PubMed

de Vos, Stijn; Wardenaar, Klaas J; Bos, Elisabeth H; Wit, Ernst C; Bouwmans, Mara E J; de Jonge, Peter

2017-01-01

Differences in within-person emotion dynamics may be an important source of heterogeneity in depression. To investigate these dynamics, researchers have previously combined multilevel regression analyses with network representations. However, sparse network methods, specifically developed for longitudinal network analyses, have not been applied. Therefore, this study used this approach to investigate population-level and individual-level emotion dynamics in healthy and depressed persons and compared this method with the multilevel approach. Time-series data were collected in pair-matched healthy persons and major depressive disorder (MDD) patients (n = 54). Seven positive affect (PA) and seven negative affect (NA) items were administered electronically at 90 times (30 days; thrice per day). The population-level (healthy vs. MDD) and individual-level time series were analyzed using a sparse longitudinal network model based on vector autoregression. The population-level model was also estimated with a multilevel approach. Effects of different preprocessing steps were evaluated as well. The characteristics of the longitudinal networks were investigated to gain insight into the emotion dynamics. In the population-level networks, longitudinal network connectivity was strongest in the healthy group, with nodes showing more and stronger longitudinal associations with each other. Individually estimated networks varied strongly across individuals. Individual variations in network connectivity were unrelated to baseline characteristics (depression status, neuroticism, severity). A multilevel approach applied to the same data showed higher connectivity in the MDD group, which seemed partly related to the preprocessing approach. The sparse network approach can be useful for the estimation of networks with multiple nodes, where overparameterization is an issue, and for individual-level networks. However, its current inability to model random effects makes it less useful as a population-level approach in case of large heterogeneity. Different preprocessing strategies appeared to strongly influence the results, complicating inferences about network density.

Persistence of Soil Organic Carbon can be Explained as an Emergent Property of Microbial Ecology and Population Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woolf, D.; Lehmann, J.

2016-12-01

The exchange of carbon between soils and the atmosphere represents an important uncertainty in climate predictions. Current Earth system models apply soil organic matter (SOM) models based on independent carbon pools with 1st order decomposition dynamics. It has been widely argued over the last decade that such models do not accurately describe soil processes and mechanisms. For example, the long term persistence of soil organic carbon (SOC) is only adequately described by such models by the post hoc assumption of passive or inert carbon pools. Further, such 1st order models also fail to account for microbially-mediated dynamics such as priming interactions. These shortcomings may limit their applicability to long term predictions under conditions of global environmental change. In addition to incorporating recent conceptual advances in the mechanisms of SOM decomposition and protection, next-generation SOM models intended for use in Earth system models need to meet further quality criteria. Namely, that they should (a) accurately describe historical data from long term trials and the current global distribution of soil organic carbon, (b) be computationally efficient for large number of iterations involved in climate modeling, and (c) have sufficiently simple parameterization that they can be run on spatially-explicit data available at global scale under varying conditions of global change over long time scales. Here we show that linking fundamental ecological principles and microbial population dynamics to SOC turnover rates results in a dynamic model that meets all of these quality criteria. This approach simultaneously eliminates the need to postulate biogeochemically-implausible passive or inert pools, instead showing how SOM persistence emerges from ecological principles, while also reproducing observed priming interactions.

Interactive visualization of vegetation dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reed, B.C.; Swets, D.; Bard, L.; Brown, J.; Rowland, James

2001-01-01

Satellite imagery provides a mechanism for observing seasonal dynamics of the landscape that have implications for near real-time monitoring of agriculture, forest, and range resources. This study illustrates a technique for visualizing timely information on key events during the growing season (e.g., onset, peak, duration, and end of growing season), as well as the status of the current growing season with respect to the recent historical average. Using time-series analysis of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) satellite sensor, seasonal dynamics can be derived. We have developed a set of Java-based visualization and analysis tools to make comparisons between the seasonal dynamics of the current year with those from the past twelve years. In addition, the visualization tools allow the user to query underlying databases such as land cover or administrative boundaries to analyze the seasonal dynamics of areas of their own interest. The Java-based tools (data exploration and visualization analysis or DEVA) use a Web-based client-server model for processing the data. The resulting visualization and analysis, available via the Internet, is of value to those responsible for land management decisions, resource allocation, and at-risk population targeting.

Influence of demographic changes on the impact of vaccination against varicella and herpes zoster in Germany - a mathematical modelling study.

PubMed

Horn, Johannes; Damm, Oliver; Greiner, Wolfgang; Hengel, Hartmut; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E; Siedler, Anette; Ultsch, Bernhard; Weidemann, Felix; Wichmann, Ole; Karch, André; Mikolajczyk, Rafael T

2018-01-09

Epidemiological studies suggest that reduced exposure to varicella might lead to an increased risk for herpes zoster (HZ). Reduction of exposure to varicella is a consequence of varicella vaccination but also of demographic changes. We analyzed how the combination of vaccination programs and demographic dynamics will affect the epidemiology of varicella and HZ in Germany over the next 50 years. We used a deterministic dynamic compartmental model to assess the impact of different varicella and HZ vaccination strategies on varicella and HZ epidemiology in three demographic scenarios, namely the projected population for Germany, the projected population additionally accounting for increased immigration as observed in 2015/2016, and a stationary population. Projected demographic changes alone result in an increase of annual HZ cases by 18.3% and a decrease of varicella cases by 45.7% between 1990 and 2060. Independently of the demographic scenario, varicella vaccination reduces the cumulative number of varicella cases until 2060 by approximately 70%, but also increases HZ cases by 10%. Unlike the currently licensed live attenuated HZ vaccine, the new subunit vaccine candidate might completely counteract this effect. Relative vaccine effects were consistent across all demographic scenarios. Demographic dynamics will be a major determinant of HZ epidemiology in the next 50 years. While stationary population models are appropriate for assessing vaccination impact, models incorporating realistic population structures allow a direct comparison to surveillance data and can thus provide additional input for immunization decision-making and resource planning.

NEPTUNE'S WILD DAYS: CONSTRAINTS FROM THE ECCENTRICITY DISTRIBUTION OF THE CLASSICAL KUIPER BELT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dawson, Rebekah I.; Murray-Clay, Ruth, E-mail: rdawson@cfa.harvard.edu

2012-05-01

Neptune's dynamical history shaped the current orbits of Kuiper Belt objects (KBOs), leaving clues to the planet's orbital evolution. In the 'classical' region, a population of dynamically 'hot' high-inclination KBOs overlies a flat 'cold' population with distinct physical properties. Simulations of qualitatively different histories for Neptune, including smooth migration on a circular orbit or scattering by other planets to a high eccentricity, have not simultaneously produced both populations. We explore a general Kuiper Belt assembly model that forms hot classical KBOs interior to Neptune and delivers them to the classical region, where the cold population forms in situ. First, wemore » present evidence that the cold population is confined to eccentricities well below the limit dictated by long-term survival. Therefore, Neptune must deliver hot KBOs into the long-term survival region without excessively exciting the eccentricities of the cold population. Imposing this constraint, we explore the parameter space of Neptune's eccentricity and eccentricity damping, migration, and apsidal precession. We rule out much of parameter space, except where Neptune is scattered to a moderately eccentric orbit (e > 0.15) and subsequently migrates a distance {Delta}a{sub N} = 1-6 AU. Neptune's moderate eccentricity must either damp quickly or be accompanied by fast apsidal precession. We find that Neptune's high eccentricity alone does not generate a chaotic sea in the classical region. Chaos can result from Neptune's interactions with Uranus, exciting the cold KBOs and placing additional constraints. Finally, we discuss how to interpret our constraints in the context of the full, complex dynamical history of the solar system.« less

One ring to rule them all: storm time ring current and its influence on radiation belts, plasmasphere and global magnetosphere electrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buzulukova, Natalia; Fok, Mei-Ching; Glocer, Alex; Moore, Thomas E.

2013-04-01

We report studies of the storm time ring current and its influence on the radiation belts, plasmasphere and global magnetospheric dynamics. The near-Earth space environment is described by multiscale physics that reflects a variety of processes and conditions that occur in magnetospheric plasma. For a successful description of such a plasma, a complex solution is needed which allows multiple physics domains to be described using multiple physical models. A key population of the inner magnetosphere is ring current plasma. Ring current dynamics affects magnetic and electric fields in the entire magnetosphere, the distribution of cold ionospheric plasma (plasmasphere), and radiation belts particles. To study electrodynamics of the inner magnetosphere, we present a MHD model (BATSRUS code) coupled with ionospheric solver for electric field and with ring current-radiation belt model (CIMI code). The model will be used as a tool to reveal details of coupling between different regions of the Earth's magnetosphere. A model validation will be also presented based on comparison with data from THEMIS, POLAR, GOES, and TWINS missions. INVITED TALK

Conclusions, synthesis, and future directions: understanding sources of population change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esler, Daniel N.; Flint, Paul L.; Derksen, Dirk V.; Savard, Jean-Pierre L.; Eadie, John M.

2015-01-01

The material in this volume reflects the burgeoning interest in sea ducks, both as study species with compelling and unique ecological attributes and as taxa of conservation concern. In this review, we provide perspective on the current state of sea duck knowledge by highlighting key findings in the preceding chapters that are of particular value for understanding or influencing population change. We also introduce a conceptual model that characterizes links among topics covered by individual chapters and places them in the context of demographic responses. Finally, we offer recommendations for areas of future research that we suggest will have importance for understanding and managing sea duck population dynamics.

How many Coccolithovirus genotypes does it take to terminate an Emiliania huxleyi bloom?

PubMed

Highfield, Andrea; Evans, Claire; Walne, Anthony; Miller, Peter I; Schroeder, Declan C

2014-10-01

Giant viruses are known to be significant mortality agents of phytoplankton, often being implicated in the terminations of large Emiliania huxleyi blooms. We have previously shown the high temporal variability of E. huxleyi-infecting coccolithoviruses (EhVs) within a Norwegian fjord mesocosm. In the current study we investigated EhV dynamics within a naturally-occurring E. huxleyi bloom in the Western English Channel. Using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis and marker gene sequencing, we uncovered a spatially highly dynamic Coccolithovirus population that was associated with a genetically stable E. huxleyi population as revealed by the major capsid protein gene (mcp) and coccolith morphology motif (CMM), respectively. Coccolithoviruses within the bloom were found to be variable with depth and unique virus populations were detected at different stations sampled indicating a complex network of EhV-host infections. This ultimately will have significant implications to the internal structure and longevity of ecologically important E. huxleyi blooms. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integrating count and detection–nondetection data to model population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zipkin, Elise F.; Rossman, Sam; Yackulic, Charles B.; Wiens, David; Thorson, James T.; Davis, Raymond J.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

2017-01-01

There is increasing need for methods that integrate multiple data types into a single analytical framework as the spatial and temporal scale of ecological research expands. Current work on this topic primarily focuses on combining capture–recapture data from marked individuals with other data types into integrated population models. Yet, studies of species distributions and trends often rely on data from unmarked individuals across broad scales where local abundance and environmental variables may vary. We present a modeling framework for integrating detection–nondetection and count data into a single analysis to estimate population dynamics, abundance, and individual detection probabilities during sampling. Our dynamic population model assumes that site-specific abundance can change over time according to survival of individuals and gains through reproduction and immigration. The observation process for each data type is modeled by assuming that every individual present at a site has an equal probability of being detected during sampling processes. We examine our modeling approach through a series of simulations illustrating the relative value of count vs. detection–nondetection data under a variety of parameter values and survey configurations. We also provide an empirical example of the model by combining long-term detection–nondetection data (1995–2014) with newly collected count data (2015–2016) from a growing population of Barred Owl (Strix varia) in the Pacific Northwest to examine the factors influencing population abundance over time. Our model provides a foundation for incorporating unmarked data within a single framework, even in cases where sampling processes yield different detection probabilities. This approach will be useful for survey design and to researchers interested in incorporating historical or citizen science data into analyses focused on understanding how demographic rates drive population abundance.

Integrating count and detection-nondetection data to model population dynamics.

PubMed

Zipkin, Elise F; Rossman, Sam; Yackulic, Charles B; Wiens, J David; Thorson, James T; Davis, Raymond J; Grant, Evan H Campbell

2017-06-01

There is increasing need for methods that integrate multiple data types into a single analytical framework as the spatial and temporal scale of ecological research expands. Current work on this topic primarily focuses on combining capture-recapture data from marked individuals with other data types into integrated population models. Yet, studies of species distributions and trends often rely on data from unmarked individuals across broad scales where local abundance and environmental variables may vary. We present a modeling framework for integrating detection-nondetection and count data into a single analysis to estimate population dynamics, abundance, and individual detection probabilities during sampling. Our dynamic population model assumes that site-specific abundance can change over time according to survival of individuals and gains through reproduction and immigration. The observation process for each data type is modeled by assuming that every individual present at a site has an equal probability of being detected during sampling processes. We examine our modeling approach through a series of simulations illustrating the relative value of count vs. detection-nondetection data under a variety of parameter values and survey configurations. We also provide an empirical example of the model by combining long-term detection-nondetection data (1995-2014) with newly collected count data (2015-2016) from a growing population of Barred Owl (Strix varia) in the Pacific Northwest to examine the factors influencing population abundance over time. Our model provides a foundation for incorporating unmarked data within a single framework, even in cases where sampling processes yield different detection probabilities. This approach will be useful for survey design and to researchers interested in incorporating historical or citizen science data into analyses focused on understanding how demographic rates drive population abundance. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Dynamic current susceptibility as a probe of Majorana bound states in nanowire-based Josephson junctions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trif, Mircea; Dmytruk, Olesia; Bouchiat, Hélène; Aguado, Ramón; Simon, Pascal

2018-02-01

We theoretically study a Josephson junction based on a semiconducting nanowire subject to a time-dependent flux bias. We establish a general density-matrix approach for the dynamical response of the Majorana junction and calculate the resulting flux-dependent susceptibility using both microscopic and effective low-energy descriptions for the nanowire. We find that the diagonal component of the susceptibility, associated with the dynamics of the Majorana state populations, dominates over the standard Kubo contribution for a wide range of experimentally relevant parameters. The diagonal term, explored, in this Rapid Communication, in the context of Majorana physics, allows probing accurately the presence of Majorana bound states in the junction.

The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality.

PubMed

Vaupel, J W; Manton, K G; Stallard, E

1979-08-01

Life table methods are developed for populations whose members differ in their endowment for longevity. Unlike standard methods, which ignore such heterogeneity, these methods use different calculations to construct cohort, period, and individual life tables. The results imply that standard methods overestimate current life expectancy and potential gains in life expectancy from health and safety interventions, while underestimating rates of individual aging, past progress in reducing mortality, and mortality differentials between pairs of populations. Calculations based on Swedish mortality data suggest that these errors may be important, especially in old age.

Health and ecological sustainability in the Arab world: a matter of survival

PubMed Central

El-Zein, Abbas; Jabbour, Samer; Tekce, Belgin; Zurayk, Huda; Nuwayhid, Iman; Khawaja, Marwan; Tell, Tariq; Mooji, Yusuf Al; De-Jong, Jocelyn; Yassin, Nasser; Hogan, Dennis

2014-01-01

Discussions leading to the Rio+20 UN conference have emphasised the importance of sustainable development and the protection of the environment for future generations. The Arab world faces large-scale threats to its sustainable development and, most of all, to the viability and existence of the ecological systems for its human settlements. The dynamics of population change, ecological degradation, and resource scarcity, and development policies and practices, all occurring in complex and highly unstable geopolitical and economic environments, are fostering the poor prospects. In this report, we discuss the most pertinent population–environment–development dynamics in the Arab world, and the two-way interactions between these dynamics and health, on the basis of current data. We draw attention to trends that are relevant to health professionals and researchers, but emphasise that the dynamics generating these trends have implications that go well beyond health. We argue that the current discourse on health, population, and development in the Arab world has largely failed to convey a sense of urgency, when the survival of whole communities is at stake. The dismal ecological and development records of Arab countries over the past two decades call for new directions. We suggest that regional ecological integration around exchange of water, energy, food, and labour, though politically difficult to achieve, offers the best hope to improve the adaptive capacity of individual Arab nations. The transformative political changes taking place in the Arab world offer promise, indeed an imperative, for such renewal. We call on policy makers, researchers, practitioners, and international agencies to emphasise the urgency and take action. PMID:24452051

Effectiveness of nanoencapsulated methotrexate against osteosarcoma cells: in vitro cytotoxicity under dynamic conditions.

PubMed

Mitxelena-Iribarren, O; Hisey, C L; Errazquin-Irigoyen, M; González-Fernández, Y; Imbuluzqueta, E; Mujika, M; Blanco-Prieto, M J; Arana, S

2017-06-01

Cancer is a leading cause of mortality in the world, with osteosarcoma being one of the most common types among children between 1 and 14 years old. Current treatments including preoperative chemotherapy, surgery and postoperative chemotherapy produce several side effects with limited effectiveness. The use of lipid nanoparticles as biodegradable shells for controlled drug delivery shows promise as a more effective and targeted tumor treatment. However, in vitro validation of these vehicles is limited due to fluid stagnation in current techniques, in which nanoparticles sediment onto the bottom of the wells killing the cells by asphyxiation. In the current series of experiments, results obtained with methotrexate-lipid nanoparticles under dynamic assay conditions are presented as a promising alternative to current free drug based therapies. Effects on the viability of the U-2 OS osteosarcoma cell line of recirculation of cell media, free methotrexate and blank and methotrexate containing lipid nanoparticles in a 11 μM concentration were successfully assessed. In addition, several designs for the microfluidic platform used were simulated using COMSOL-Multiphysics, optimized devices were fabricated using soft-lithography and simulated parameters were experimentally validated. Nanoparticles did not sediment to the bottom of the platform, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed system. Moreover, encapsulated methotrexate was the most effective treatment, as after 72 h the cell population was reduced nearly 40% while under free methotrexate circulation the cell population doubled. Overall, these results indicate that methotrexate-lipid nanoparticles are a promising targeted therapy for osteosarcoma treatment.

Massive Black-Hole Binary Mergers: Dynamics, Environments & Expected Detections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelley, Luke Zoltan

2018-05-01

This thesis studies the populations and dynamics of massive black-hole binaries and their mergers, and explores the implications for electromagnetic and gravitational-wave signals that will be detected in the near future. Massive black-holes (MBH) reside in the centers of galaxies, and when galaxies merge, their MBH interact and often pair together. We base our study on the populations of MBH and galaxies from the `Illustris' cosmological hydrodynamic simulations. The bulk of the binary merger dynamics, however, are unresolved in cosmological simulations. We implement a suite of comprehensive physical models for the merger process, like dynamical friction and gravitational wave emission, which are added in post-processing. Contrary to many previous studies, we find that the most massive binaries with near equal-mass companions are the most efficient at coalescing; though the process still typically takes gigayears.From the data produced by these MBH binary populations and their dynamics, we calculate the expected gravitational wave (GW) signals: both the stochastic, GW background of countless unresolved sources, and the GW foreground of individually resolvable binaries which resound above the noise. Ongoing experiments, called pulsar timing arrays, are sensitive to both of these types of signals. We find that, while the current lack of detections is unsurprising, both the background and foreground will plausibly be detected in the next decade. Unlike previous studies which have predicted the foreground to be significantly harder to detect than the background, we find their typical amplitudes are comparable.With traditional electromagnetic observations, there has also been a dearth of confirmed detections of MBH binary systems. We use our binaries, combined with models of emission from accreting MBH systems, to make predictions for the occurrence rate of systems observable using photometric, periodic-variability surveys. These variables should be detectable in current surveys, and indeed, we expect many candidates recently identified to be true binaries - though a significant fraction are likely false positives. Overall, this thesis finds the science of MBH binaries at an exciting cusp: just before incredible breakthroughs in observations, both electromagnetically and in the new age of gravitational wave astrophysics.

Estimating golden-cheeked warbler immigration: Implications for the spatial scale of conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duarte, A.; Weckerly, F.W.; Schaub, M.; Hatfield, Jeffrey S.

2016-01-01

Understanding the factors that drive population dynamics is fundamental to species conservation and management. Since the golden-cheeked warbler Setophaga chrysoparia was first listed as endangered, much effort has taken place to monitor warbler abundance, occupancy, reproduction and survival. Yet, despite being directly related to local population dynamics, movement rates have not been estimated for the species. We used an integrated population model to investigate the relationship between immigration rate, fledging rate, survival probabilities and population growth rate for warblers in central Texas, USA. Furthermore, using a deterministic projection model, we examined the response required by vital rates to maintain a viable population across varying levels of immigration. Warbler abundance fluctuated with an overall positive trend across years. In the absence of immigration, the abundance would have decreased. However, the population could remain viable without immigration if both adult and juvenile survival increased by almost half or if juvenile survival more than doubled. We also investigated the response required by fledging rates across a range of immigration in order to maintain a viable population. Overall, we found that immigration was required to maintain warbler target populations, indicating that warbler conservation and management programs need to be implemented at larger spatial scales than current efforts to be effective. This study also demonstrates that by using limited data within integrated population models, biologists are able to monitor multiple key demographic parameters simultaneously to gauge the efficacy of strategies designed to maximize warbler viability in a changing landscape.

[Gypsy moth Lymantria dispar L. in the South Urals: Patterns in population dynamics and modelling].

PubMed

Soukhovolsky, V G; Ponomarev, V I; Sokolov, G I; Tarasova, O V; Krasnoperova, P A

2015-01-01

The analysis is conducted on population dynamics of gypsy moth from different habitats of the South Urals. The pattern of cyclic changes in population density is examined, the assessment of temporal conjugation in time series of gypsy moth population dynamics from separate habitats of the South Urals is carried out, the relationships between population density and weather conditions are studied. Based on the results obtained, a statistical model of gypsy moth population dynamics in the South Urals is designed, and estimations are given of regulatory and modifying factors effects on the population dynamics.

Linking micro- and macroevolutionary perspectives to evaluate the role of Quaternary sea-level oscillations in island diversification.

PubMed

Papadopoulou, Anna; Knowles, L Lacey

2017-12-01

With shifts in island area, isolation, and cycles of island fusion-fission, the role of Quaternary sea-level oscillations as drivers of diversification is complex and not well understood. Here, we conduct parallel comparisons of population and species divergence between two island areas of equivalent size that have been affected differently by sea-level oscillations, with the aim to understand the micro- and macroevolutionary dynamics associated with sea-level change. Using genome-wide datasets for a clade of seven Amphiacusta ground cricket species endemic to the Puerto Rico Bank (PRB), we found consistently deeper interspecific divergences and higher population differentiation across the unfragmented Western PRB, in comparison to the currently fragmented Eastern PRB that has experienced extreme changes in island area and connectivity during the Quaternary. We evaluate alternative hypotheses related to the microevolutionary processes (population splitting, extinction, and merging) that regulate the frequency of completed speciation across the PRB. Our results suggest that under certain combinations of archipelago characteristics and taxon traits, the repeated changes in island area and connectivity may create an opposite effect to the hypothesized "species pump" action of oscillating sea levels. Our study highlights how a microevolutionary perspective can complement current macroecological work on the Quaternary dynamics of island biodiversity. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

On the dynamics of the world demographic transition and financial-economic crises forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akaev, A.; Sadovnichy, V.; Korotayev, A.

2012-05-01

The article considers dynamic processes involving non-linear power-law behavior in such apparently diverse spheres, as demographic dynamics and dynamics of prices of highly liquid commodities such as oil and gold. All the respective variables exhibit features of explosive growth containing precursors indicating approaching phase transitions/catastrophes/crises. The first part of the article analyzes mathematical models of demographic dynamics that describe various scenarios of demographic development in the post-phase-transition period, including a model that takes the limitedness of the Earth carrying capacity into account. This model points to a critical point in the early 2050s, when the world population, after reaching its maximum value may decrease afterward stabilizing then at a certain stationary level. The article presents an analysis of the influence of the demographic transition (directly connected with the hyperexponential growth of the world population) on the global socioeconomic and geopolitical development. The second part deals with the phenomenon of explosive growth of prices of such highly liquid commodities as oil and gold. It is demonstrated that at present the respective processes could be regarded as precursors of waves of the global financial-economic crisis that will demand the change of the current global economic and political system. It is also shown that the moments of the start of the first and second waves of the current global crisis could have been forecasted with a model of accelerating log-periodic fluctuations superimposed over a power-law trend with a finite singularity developed by Didier Sornette and collaborators. With respect to the oil prices, it is shown that it was possible to forecast the 2008 crisis with a precision up to a month already in 2007. The gold price dynamics was used to calculate the possible time of the start of the second wave of the global crisis (July-August 2011); note that this forecast has turned out to be quite correct.

A reduction for spiking integrate-and-fire network dynamics ranging from homogeneity to synchrony.

PubMed

Zhang, J W; Rangan, A V

2015-04-01

In this paper we provide a general methodology for systematically reducing the dynamics of a class of integrate-and-fire networks down to an augmented 4-dimensional system of ordinary-differential-equations. The class of integrate-and-fire networks we focus on are homogeneously-structured, strongly coupled, and fluctuation-driven. Our reduction succeeds where most current firing-rate and population-dynamics models fail because we account for the emergence of 'multiple-firing-events' involving the semi-synchronous firing of many neurons. These multiple-firing-events are largely responsible for the fluctuations generated by the network and, as a result, our reduction faithfully describes many dynamic regimes ranging from homogeneous to synchronous. Our reduction is based on first principles, and provides an analyzable link between the integrate-and-fire network parameters and the relatively low-dimensional dynamics underlying the 4-dimensional augmented ODE.

Evolution with Reinforcement Learning in Negotiation

PubMed Central

Zou, Yi; Zhan, Wenjie; Shao, Yuan

2014-01-01

Adaptive behavior depends less on the details of the negotiation process and makes more robust predictions in the long term as compared to in the short term. However, the extant literature on population dynamics for behavior adjustment has only examined the current situation. To offset this limitation, we propose a synergy of evolutionary algorithm and reinforcement learning to investigate long-term collective performance and strategy evolution. The model adopts reinforcement learning with a tradeoff between historical and current information to make decisions when the strategies of agents evolve through repeated interactions. The results demonstrate that the strategies in populations converge to stable states, and the agents gradually form steady negotiation habits. Agents that adopt reinforcement learning perform better in payoff, fairness, and stableness than their counterparts using classic evolutionary algorithm. PMID:25048108

Evolution with reinforcement learning in negotiation.

PubMed

Zou, Yi; Zhan, Wenjie; Shao, Yuan

2014-01-01

Adaptive behavior depends less on the details of the negotiation process and makes more robust predictions in the long term as compared to in the short term. However, the extant literature on population dynamics for behavior adjustment has only examined the current situation. To offset this limitation, we propose a synergy of evolutionary algorithm and reinforcement learning to investigate long-term collective performance and strategy evolution. The model adopts reinforcement learning with a tradeoff between historical and current information to make decisions when the strategies of agents evolve through repeated interactions. The results demonstrate that the strategies in populations converge to stable states, and the agents gradually form steady negotiation habits. Agents that adopt reinforcement learning perform better in payoff, fairness, and stableness than their counterparts using classic evolutionary algorithm.

Dynamic insecticide susceptibility changes in Florida populations of Diaphorina citri (Hemiptera: Psyllidae).

PubMed

Tiwari, Siddharth; Killiny, Nabil; Stelinski, Lukasz L

2013-02-01

Five field populations of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama from various regions of Florida were evaluated in 2011 for resistance to commonly used insecticides. Three diagnostic doses (LD50, LD75, and LD95), developed in 2009 using a laboratory susceptible population, were used to measure changes in susceptibility levels of field-collected populations as compared with a susceptible laboratory population. Further reductions in the susceptibility levels of D. citri to chlorpyriphos and fenpropathrin were determined, compared with results obtained in 2010. Mean percent mortality obtained from all five locations was significantly lower than observed with the laboratory susceptible population for all insecticides tested. Previously, expression of five CYP4 genes was implicated in contributing to insecticide metabolism in D. citri. In the current study, we compared the relative expression of these five CYP4 genes and their associated levels of protein expression among field-collected and laboratory susceptible populations. Expression of all CYP4 genes investigated was higher in field-collected populations when normalized against the laboratory susceptible population. There was an increased signal of a band corresponding to a 45 kDa protein in four of the five field populations as measured by the Western blot assay, which suggests increased production of cytochrome P450 enzymes. The current results indicate that insecticide resistance continues to increase in Florida populations ofD. citri, particularly to chlorpyriphos and fenpropathrin. However, there was no further decrease in susceptibility of Florida populations of D. citri to neonicotinoid insecticides in 2011 as compared with previous years.

Ring current dynamics and plasma sheet sources. [magnetic storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyons, L. R.

1984-01-01

The source of the energized plasma that forms in geomagnetic storm ring currents, and ring current decay are discussed. The dominant loss processes for ring current ions are identified as charge exchange and resonant interactions with ion-cyclotron waves. Ring current ions are not dominated by protons. At L4 and energies below a few tens of keV, O+ is the most abundant ion, He+ is second, and protons are third. The plasma sheet contributes directly or indirectly to the ring current particle population. An important source of plasma sheet ions is earthward streaming ions on the outer boundary of the plasma sheet. Ion interactions with the current across the geomagnetic tail can account for the formation of this boundary layer. Electron interactions with the current sheet are possibly an important source of plasma sheet electrons.

Relationship between the mechanisms of gamma rhythm generation and the magnitude of the macroscopic phase response function in a population of excitatory and inhibitory modified quadratic integrate-and-fire neurons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akao, Akihiko; Ogawa, Yutaro; Jimbo, Yasuhiko; Ermentrout, G. Bard; Kotani, Kiyoshi

2018-01-01

Gamma oscillations are thought to play an important role in brain function. Interneuron gamma (ING) and pyramidal interneuron gamma (PING) mechanisms have been proposed as generation mechanisms for these oscillations. However, the relation between the generation mechanisms and the dynamical properties of the gamma oscillation are still unclear. Among the dynamical properties of the gamma oscillation, the phase response function (PRF) is important because it encodes the response of the oscillation to inputs. Recently, the PRF for an inhibitory population of modified theta neurons that generate an ING rhythm was computed by the adjoint method applied to the associated Fokker-Planck equation (FPE) for the model. The modified theta model incorporates conductance-based synapses as well as the voltage and current dynamics. Here, we extended this previous work by creating an excitatory-inhibitory (E-I) network using the modified theta model and described the population dynamics with the corresponding FPE. We conducted a bifurcation analysis of the FPE to find parameter regions which generate gamma oscillations. In order to label the oscillatory parameter regions by their generation mechanisms, we defined ING- and PING-type gamma oscillation in a mathematically plausible way based on the driver of the inhibitory population. We labeled the oscillatory parameter regions by these generation mechanisms and derived PRFs via the adjoint method on the FPE in order to investigate the differences in the responses of each type of oscillation to inputs. PRFs for PING and ING mechanisms are derived and compared. We found the amplitude of the PRF for the excitatory population is larger in the PING case than in the ING case. Finally, the E-I population of the modified theta neuron enabled us to analyze the PRFs of PING-type gamma oscillation and the entrainment ability of E and I populations. We found a parameter region in which PRFs of E and I are both purely positive in the case of PING oscillations. The different entrainment abilities of E and I stimulation as governed by the respective PRFs was compared to direct simulations of finite populations of model neurons. We find that it is easier to entrain the gamma rhythm by stimulating the inhibitory population than by stimulating the excitatory population as has been found experimentally.

Hibernating black holes revealed by photometric mass functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casares, Jorge

2018-02-01

We present a novel strategy to uncover the Galactic population of quiescent black holes (BHs). This is based on a new concept, the photometric mass function (PMF), which opens up the possibility of an efficient identification of dynamical BHs in large fields-of-view. This exploits the width of the disc H α emission line, combined with orbital period information. We here show that H α widths can be recovered using a combination of customized H α filters. By setting a width cut-off at 2200 km s-1 we are able to cleanly remove other Galactic populations of H α emitters, including ∼99.9 per cent of cataclysmic variables (CVs). Only short-period (Porb <2.1 h) eclipsing CVs and AGNs will contaminate the sample but these can be easily flagged through photometric variability and, in the latter case, also mid-IR colours. We also describe the strategy of a deep (r = 22) Galactic plane survey based on the concept of PMFs: HAWKs, the HAlpha-Width Kilo-deg Survey. We estimate that ∼800 deg2 are required to unveil ∼50 new dynamical BHs, a three-fold improvement over the known population. For comparison, a century would be needed to produce an enlarged sample of 50 dynamical BHs from X-ray transients at the current discovery rate.

Mean Field Analysis of Large-Scale Interacting Populations of Stochastic Conductance-Based Spiking Neurons Using the Klimontovich Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gandolfo, Daniel; Rodriguez, Roger; Tuckwell, Henry C.

2017-03-01

We investigate the dynamics of large-scale interacting neural populations, composed of conductance based, spiking model neurons with modifiable synaptic connection strengths, which are possibly also subjected to external noisy currents. The network dynamics is controlled by a set of neural population probability distributions (PPD) which are constructed along the same lines as in the Klimontovich approach to the kinetic theory of plasmas. An exact non-closed, nonlinear, system of integro-partial differential equations is derived for the PPDs. As is customary, a closing procedure leads to a mean field limit. The equations we have obtained are of the same type as those which have been recently derived using rigorous techniques of probability theory. The numerical solutions of these so called McKean-Vlasov-Fokker-Planck equations, which are only valid in the limit of infinite size networks, actually shows that the statistical measures as obtained from PPDs are in good agreement with those obtained through direct integration of the stochastic dynamical system for large but finite size networks. Although numerical solutions have been obtained for networks of Fitzhugh-Nagumo model neurons, which are often used to approximate Hodgkin-Huxley model neurons, the theory can be readily applied to networks of general conductance-based model neurons of arbitrary dimension.

Genetic connectivity among swarming sites in the wide ranging and recently declining little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus)

PubMed Central

Burns, Lynne E; Frasier, Timothy R; Broders, Hugh G

2014-01-01

Characterizing movement dynamics and spatial aspects of gene flow within a species permits inference on population structuring. As patterns of structuring are products of historical and current demographics and gene flow, assessment of structure through time can yield an understanding of evolutionary dynamics acting on populations that are necessary to inform management. Recent dramatic population declines in hibernating bats in eastern North America from white-nose syndrome have prompted the need for information on movement dynamics for multiple bat species. We characterized population genetic structure of the little brown bat, Myotis lucifugus, at swarming sites in southeastern Canada using 9 nuclear microsatellites and a 292-bp region of the mitochondrial genome. Analyses of FST, ΦST, and Bayesian clustering (STRUCTURE) found weak levels of genetic structure among swarming sites for the nuclear and mitochondrial genome (Global FST = 0.001, P < 0.05, Global ΦST = 0.045, P < 0.01, STRUCTURE K = 1) suggesting high contemporary gene flow. Hierarchical AMOVA also suggests little structuring at a regional (provincial) level. Metrics of nuclear genetic structure were not found to differ between males and females suggesting weak asymmetries in gene flow between the sexes. However, a greater degree of mitochondrial structuring does support male-biased dispersal long term. Demographic analyses were consistent with past population growth and suggest a population expansion occurred from approximately 1250 to 12,500 BP, following Pleistocene deglaciation in the region. Our study suggests high gene flow and thus a high degree of connectivity among bats that visit swarming sites whereby mainland areas of the region may be best considered as one large gene pool for management and conservation. PMID:25505539

Measuring spacetime: from the big bang to black holes.

PubMed

Tegmark, Max

2002-05-24

Space is not a boring static stage on which events unfold over time, but a dynamic entity with curvature, fluctuations, and a rich life of its own. Spectacular measurements of the cosmic microwave background, gravitational lensing, type Ia supernovae, large-scale structure, spectra of the Lyman alpha forest, stellar dynamics, and x-ray binaries are probing the properties of spacetime over 22 orders of magnitude in scale. Current measurements are consistent with an infinite flat everlasting universe containing about 30% cold dark matter, 65% dark energy, and at least two distinct populations of black holes.

In situ relationships between microbiota and potential pathobiota in Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Bartoli, Claudia; Frachon, Léa; Barret, Matthieu; Rigal, Mylène; Huard-Chauveau, Carine; Mayjonade, Baptiste; Zanchetta, Catherine; Bouchez, Olivier; Roby, Dominique; Carrère, Sébastien; Roux, Fabrice

2018-05-30

A current challenge in microbial pathogenesis is to identify biological control agents that may prevent and/or limit host invasion by microbial pathogens. In natura, hosts are often infected by multiple pathogens. However, most of the current studies have been performed under laboratory controlled conditions and by taking into account the interaction between a single commensal species and a single pathogenic species. The next step is therefore to explore the relationships between host-microbial communities (microbiota) and microbial members with potential pathogenic behavior (pathobiota) in a realistic ecological context. In the present study, we investigated such relationships within root-associated and leaf-associated bacterial communities of 163 ecologically contrasted Arabidopsis thaliana populations sampled across two seasons in southwest of France. In agreement with the theory of the invasion paradox, we observed a significant humped-back relationship between microbiota and pathobiota α-diversity that was robust between both seasons and plant organs. In most populations, we also observed a strong dynamics of microbiota composition between seasons. Accordingly, the potential pathobiota composition was explained by combinations of season-specific microbiota operational taxonomic units. This result suggests that the potential biomarkers controlling pathogen's invasion are highly dynamic.

Biogeographical role of the Kuroshio Current in the amphibious mudskipper Periophthalmus modestus indicated by mitochondrial DNA data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Lijun; Mukai, Takahiko; Hou Chu, Ka; Ma, Qiang; Zhang, Jing

2015-10-01

Quaternary climatic cycles have influenced marine organisms’ spatial distribution and population dynamics. This study aimed to elucidate the evolutionary influences of contemporary and glacial physical barriers on the population structure, demography and colonization history of the mudskipper (Periophthalmus modestus) based on a mitochondrial gene segment (ND5) from 131 individual fish sampled in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. The current Kuroshio Current and the glacial exposure of the Taiwan Strait appeared to have restricted migration among the South China Sea, coastal East China and Japan. However, genetic homogeneity (Nm>1) also suggested contemporary larval transportation by sea circulation between the East China Sea and the South China Sea or historical dispersal along the glacial exposed shoreline among China, Japan and the Ryukyu Islands. Evolutionary signals of the strengthened East Asian Summer Monsoon in the mid-Pleistocene and regional difference in intertidal primary productions were indicated by a late-Pleistocene population expansion of P. modestus with a higher effective population size in the South China Sea than in the East China Sea. Furthermore, a potential colonization origin from the South China Sea was consistently inferred by different clues, including the populations’ coalescence times, the ancestral haplotype distribution, the number of private haplotypes and species/genetic diversity.

Biogeographical role of the Kuroshio Current in the amphibious mudskipper Periophthalmus modestus indicated by mitochondrial DNA data

PubMed Central

He, Lijun; Mukai, Takahiko; Hou Chu, Ka; Ma, Qiang; Zhang, Jing

2015-01-01

Quaternary climatic cycles have influenced marine organisms’ spatial distribution and population dynamics. This study aimed to elucidate the evolutionary influences of contemporary and glacial physical barriers on the population structure, demography and colonization history of the mudskipper (Periophthalmus modestus) based on a mitochondrial gene segment (ND5) from 131 individual fish sampled in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. The current Kuroshio Current and the glacial exposure of the Taiwan Strait appeared to have restricted migration among the South China Sea, coastal East China and Japan. However, genetic homogeneity (Nm>1) also suggested contemporary larval transportation by sea circulation between the East China Sea and the South China Sea or historical dispersal along the glacial exposed shoreline among China, Japan and the Ryukyu Islands. Evolutionary signals of the strengthened East Asian Summer Monsoon in the mid-Pleistocene and regional difference in intertidal primary productions were indicated by a late-Pleistocene population expansion of P. modestus with a higher effective population size in the South China Sea than in the East China Sea. Furthermore, a potential colonization origin from the South China Sea was consistently inferred by different clues, including the populations’ coalescence times, the ancestral haplotype distribution, the number of private haplotypes and species/genetic diversity. PMID:26508474

A dynamic simulation model of land-use, population, and rural livelihoods in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia.

PubMed

Garedew, Efrem; Sandewall, Mats; Soderberg, Ulf

2012-01-01

The dynamic interactions between society and land resources have to be taken into account when planning and managing natural resources. A computer model, using STELLA software, was developed through active participation of purposively selected farm households from different wealth groups, age groups and gender within a rural community and some members of Kebelle council. The aim of the modeling was to study the perceived changes in land-use, population and livelihoods over the next 30 years and to improve our understanding of the interactions among them. The modeling output is characterized by rapid population growth, declining farm size and household incomes, deteriorating woody vegetation cover and worsening land degradation if current conditions remain. However, through integrated intervention strategies (including forest increase, micro-finance, family planning, health and education) the woody vegetation cover is likely to increase in the landscape, population growth is likely to slow down and households' income is likely to improve. A validation assessment of the simulation model based on historical data on land-use and population from 1973 to 2006 showed that the model is relatively robust. We conclude that as a supporting tool, the simulation model can contribute to the decision making process.

Magnetospheric Reconnection in Modified Current-Sheet Equilibria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newman, D. L.; Goldman, M. V.; Lapenta, G.; Markidis, S.

2012-10-01

Particle simulations of magnetic reconnection in Earth's magnetosphere are frequently initialized with a current-carrying Harris equilibrium superposed on a current-free uniform background plasma. The Harris equilibrium satisfies local charge neutrality, but requires that the sheet current be dominated by the hotter species -- often the ions in Earth's magnetosphere. This constraint is not necessarily consistent with observations. A modified kinetic equilibrium that relaxes this constraint on the currents was proposed by Yamada et al. [Phys. Plasmas., 7, 1781 (2000)] with no background population. These modified equilibria were characterized by an asymptotic converging or diverging electrostatic field normal to the current sheet. By reintroducing the background plasma, we have developed new families of equilibria where the asymptotic fields are suppressed by Debye shielding. Because the electrostatic potential profiles of these new equilibria contain wells and/or barriers capable of spatially isolating different populations of electrons and/or ions, these solutions can be further generalized to include classes of asymmetric kinetic equilibria. Examples of both symmetric and asymmetric equilibria will be presented. The dynamical evolution of these equilibria, when perturbed, will be further explored by means of implicit 2D PIC reconnection simulations, including comparisons with simulations employing standard Harris-equilibrium initializations.

Are genes faster than crabs? Mitochondrial introgression exceeds larval dispersal during population expansion of the invasive crab Carcinus maenas.

PubMed

Darling, John A; Tsai, Yi-Hsin Erica; Blakeslee, April M H; Roman, Joe

2014-10-01

Biological invasions offer unique opportunities to investigate evolutionary dynamics at the peripheries of expanding populations. Here, we examine genetic patterns associated with admixture between two distinct invasive lineages of the European green crab, Carcinus maenas L., independently introduced to the northwest Atlantic. Previous investigations based on mitochondrial DNA sequences demonstrated that larval dispersal driven by advective currents could explain observed southward displacement of an admixture zone between the two invasions. Comparison of published mitochondrial results with new nuclear data from nine microsatellite loci, however, reveals striking discordance in their introgression patterns. Specifically, introgression of mitochondrial genomes relative to nuclear background suggests that demographic processes such as sex-biased reproductive dynamics and population size imbalances-and not solely larval dispersal-play an important role in driving the evolution of the genetic cline. In particular, the unpredicted introgression of mitochondrial alleles against the direction of mean larval dispersal in the region is consistent with recent models invoking similar demographic processes to explain movements of genes into invading populations. These observations have important implications for understanding historical shifts in C. maenas range limits, and more generally for inferences of larval dispersal based on genetic data.

Dynamic horizontal cultural transmission of humpback whale song at the ocean basin scale.

PubMed

Garland, Ellen C; Goldizen, Anne W; Rekdahl, Melinda L; Constantine, Rochelle; Garrigue, Claire; Hauser, Nan Daeschler; Poole, M Michael; Robbins, Jooke; Noad, Michael J

2011-04-26

Cultural transmission, the social learning of information or behaviors from conspecifics, is believed to occur in a number of groups of animals, including primates, cetaceans, and birds. Cultural traits can be passed vertically (from parents to offspring), obliquely (from the previous generation via a nonparent model to younger individuals), or horizontally (between unrelated individuals from similar age classes or within generations). Male humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) have a highly stereotyped, repetitive, and progressively evolving vocal sexual display or "song" that functions in sexual selection (through mate attraction and/or male social sorting). All males within a population conform to the current version of the display (song type), and similarities may exist among the songs of populations within an ocean basin. Here we present a striking pattern of horizontal transmission: multiple song types spread rapidly and repeatedly in a unidirectional manner, like cultural ripples, eastward through the populations in the western and central South Pacific over an 11-year period. This is the first documentation of a repeated, dynamic cultural change occurring across multiple populations at such a large geographic scale. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Are genes faster than crabs? Mitochondrial introgression exceeds larval dispersal during population expansion of the invasive crab Carcinus maenas

PubMed Central

Darling, John A.; Tsai, Yi-Hsin Erica; Blakeslee, April M. H.; Roman, Joe

2014-01-01

Biological invasions offer unique opportunities to investigate evolutionary dynamics at the peripheries of expanding populations. Here, we examine genetic patterns associated with admixture between two distinct invasive lineages of the European green crab, Carcinus maenas L., independently introduced to the northwest Atlantic. Previous investigations based on mitochondrial DNA sequences demonstrated that larval dispersal driven by advective currents could explain observed southward displacement of an admixture zone between the two invasions. Comparison of published mitochondrial results with new nuclear data from nine microsatellite loci, however, reveals striking discordance in their introgression patterns. Specifically, introgression of mitochondrial genomes relative to nuclear background suggests that demographic processes such as sex-biased reproductive dynamics and population size imbalances—and not solely larval dispersal—play an important role in driving the evolution of the genetic cline. In particular, the unpredicted introgression of mitochondrial alleles against the direction of mean larval dispersal in the region is consistent with recent models invoking similar demographic processes to explain movements of genes into invading populations. These observations have important implications for understanding historical shifts in C. maenas range limits, and more generally for inferences of larval dispersal based on genetic data. PMID:26064543

Technological advances in real-time tracking of cell death

PubMed Central

Skommer, Joanna; Darzynkiewicz, Zbigniew; Wlodkowic, Donald

2010-01-01

Cell population can be viewed as a quantum system, which like Schrödinger’s cat exists as a combination of survival- and death-allowing states. Tracking and understanding cell-to-cell variability in processes of high spatio-temporal complexity such as cell death is at the core of current systems biology approaches. As probabilistic modeling tools attempt to impute information inaccessible by current experimental approaches, advances in technologies for single-cell imaging and omics (proteomics, genomics, metabolomics) should go hand in hand with the computational efforts. Over the last few years we have made exciting technological advances that allow studies of cell death dynamically in real-time and with the unprecedented accuracy. These approaches are based on innovative fluorescent assays and recombinant proteins, bioelectrical properties of cells, and more recently also on state-of-the-art optical spectroscopy. Here, we review current status of the most innovative analytical technologies for dynamic tracking of cell death, and address the interdisciplinary promises and future challenges of these methods. PMID:20519963

Effects of constant immigration on the dynamics and persistence of stable and unstable Drosophila populations

PubMed Central

Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh

2013-01-01

Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546

Effects of dispersal on total biomass in a patchy, heterogeneous system: analysis and experiment.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, Bo; Liu, Xin; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Ni, Wei-Ming; Wang, G Geoff

2015-01-01

An intriguing recent result from mathematics is that a population diffusing at an intermediate rate in an environment in which resources vary spatially will reach a higher total equilibrium biomass than the population in an environment in which the same total resources are distributed homogeneously. We extended the current mathematical theory to apply to logistic growth and also showed that the result applies to patchy systems with dispersal among patches, both for continuous and discrete time. This allowed us to make specific predictions, through simulations, concerning the biomass dynamics, which were verified by a laboratory experiment. The experiment was a study of biomass growth of duckweed (Lemna minor Linn.), where the resources (nutrients added to water) were distributed homogeneously among a discrete series of water-filled containers in one treatment, and distributed heterogeneously in another treatment. The experimental results showed that total biomass peaked at an intermediate, relatively low, diffusion rate, higher than the total carrying capacity of the system and agreeing with the simulation model. The implications of the experiment to dynamics of source, sink, and pseudo-sink dynamics are discussed.

Ultrafast Dynamics in DNA and RNA Derivatives Monitored by Broadband Transient Absorption Spectrscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brister, Matthew M.; Crespo-Hernández, Carlos E.

2015-06-01

The ultrafast dynamics of nucleic acids have been under scrutiny for the past couple of decades because of the role that the high-energy electronic states play in mutagenesis and carcinogenesis. Kinetic models have been proposed, based on both experimental and theoretical discoveries. Direct experimental evidence of the intersystem crossing rate and population of the triplet state for most nucleic acid bases has yet to be reported, even though the triplet state is thought to be the most reactive species. Utilizing broadband femtosecond transient absorption spectroscopy, we reveal the time scale at which singlet-to-triplet population transfer occurs in several nucleic acid derivatives in the condensed phase. The implication of these results to the current understanding of the DNA and RNA photochemistry will be discussed. The authors acknowledge the CAREER program of the National Science Foundation (Grant No. CHE-1255084) for financial support.

Detecting lower extremity vascular dynamics in patients with peripheral artery disease using diffuse optical tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalil, Michael A.; Kim, Hyun-Keol K.; Kim, In-Kyong; Dayal, Rajeev; Hielscher, Andreas H.

2011-02-01

Peripheral Artery Disease (PAD) affects over 10 million Americans and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. While in many cases the ankle-brachial index (ABI) can be used for diagnosing the disease, this parameter is not dependable in the diabetic and elderly population. These populations tend to have calcified arteries, which leads to elevated ABI values. Dynamic optical tomography (DDOT) promises to overcome the limitations of the current diagnostic techniques and has the potential to initiate a paradigm shift in the diagnosis of vascular disease. We have performed initial pilot studies involving 5 PAD patients and 3 healthy volunteers. The time traces and tomographic reconstruction obtained from measurements on the feet show significant differences between healthy and affected vasculatures. In addition, we found that DOT is capable of identifying PAD in diabetic patients, who are misdiagnosed by the traditional ABI screening.

Effects of Multiple Stressors on Red Abalone (Haliotis rufescens) Fertilization Success

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boch, C. A.; Aalto, E.; De Leo, G.; Litvin, S.; Lovera, C.; Micheli, F.; Woodson, C. B.; Monismith, S. G.; Barry, J. P.

2016-02-01

Acidification, hypoxia, and ocean warming are escalating threats in the world's coastal waters, with potentially severe consequences for marine life and ocean-based economies. In particular, eastern boundary current ecosystems, including the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME), are experiencing large-scale declines in pH and dissolved oxygen (DO)—with the latter linked to changes in thermal stratification and shoaling of the oxygen minimum zone. To examine the consequences of ocean acidification and other climate-related changes in oceanographic conditions on nearshore marine populations within the CCLME, we are assessing the potential effects of current and future upwelling-type conditions on the population dynamics of the red abalone (Haliotis rufescens), with a focus on sensitive early life history phases (e.g., fertilization, larval development, and juvenile growth and survival) expected to be important determinants of population dynamics. Here, we present the first experimental results on the impacts of combined exposures of low pH and low DO on abalone fertilization success. Our results show that abalone fertilization success is significantly reduced when the gametes are exposed to a decrease in seawater pH from 8.0 to 7.2. Furthermore, low pH in combination with hypoxic exposure—e.g., a decrease in dissolved oxygen from 6 mg/L DO to 1 mg/L DO—does not further decrease fertilization rates, suggesting a lack of synergistic or additive effects of these multiple stressors on the reduction of fertilization success. Although the focus of this study is to characterize the effects of multiple stressors on the early life history of abalone, the implications of these results are expected to be relevant for a variety of marine taxa with similar reproductive modes.

Evaluating Water Conservation and Reuse Policies Using a Dynamic Water Balance Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qaiser, Kamal; Ahmad, Sajjad; Johnson, Walter; Batista, Jacimaria R.

2013-02-01

A dynamic water balance model is created to examine the effects of different water conservation policies and recycled water use on water demand and supply in a region faced with water shortages and significant population growth, the Las Vegas Valley (LVV). The model, developed using system dynamics approach, includes an unusual component of the water system, return flow credits, where credits are accrued for returning treated wastewater to the water supply source. In LVV, Lake Mead serves as, both the drinking water source and the receiving body for treated wastewater. LVV has a consumptive use allocation from Lake Mead but return flow credits allow the water agency to pull out additional water equal to the amount returned as treated wastewater. This backdrop results in a scenario in which conservation may cause a decline in the available water supply. Current water use in LVV is 945 lpcd (250 gpcd), which the water agency aims to reduce to 752 lpcd (199 gpcd) by 2035, mainly through water conservation. Different conservation policies focused on indoor and outdoor water use, along with different population growth scenarios, are modeled for their effects on the water demand and supply. Major contribution of this study is in highlighting the importance of outdoor water conservation and the effectiveness of reducing population growth rate in addressing the future water shortages. The water agency target to decrease consumption, if met completely through outdoor conservation, coupled with lower population growth rate, can potentially satisfy the Valley's water demands through 2035.

Linking in situ bioassays and population dynamics of macroinvertebrates to assess agricultural contamination in streams of the Argentine pampa.

PubMed

Jergentz, S; Pessacq, P; Mugni, H; Bonetto, C; Schulz, R

2004-10-01

The two local crustacean species Hyalella curvispina and Macrobrachium borelli were chosen for assessment of agricultural contamination in two streams (Horqueta and Maguire) in the Argentine pampa. In parallel with in situ bioassays of both species, the population dynamics and the organismic drift of H. curvispina were investigated throughout the main period of insecticide application, from December 2001 to March 2002. In Maguire none of the current-use insecticides (chlorpyrifos, alpha-cypermethrin, and endosulfan) in question were detected throughout the sampling period. During 1-week intervals with no contamination by insecticides the survival rate of H. curvispina varied between 77 +/- 6% (+/- SE, n = 4) and 85 +/- 3%. In Horqueta during a week with a peak insecticide contamination of 64 microg/kg chlorpyrifos in the suspended particles, a mortality of 100% was observed in the in situ bioassays for both species, H. curvispina and M. borelli. At the same time, in Maguire H. curvispina showed reduced survival rates of 23 +/- 5% and 25 +/- 18% at the two sites, while the survival rate of M. borelli was 60 +/- 11% upstream and 93 +/- 5% downstream, below a wetland. During the period with 100% mortality of H. curvispina in Horqueta, the population density of this species decreased correspondingly, from 106 +/- 26 to 0 individuals/m(2). We conclude that in situ bioassays can be successfully linked to in-stream population dynamics for the same species and that this link is very useful for interpreting causal exposure-effect relationships.

Temperature-dependent body size effects determine population responses to climate warming.

PubMed

Lindmark, Max; Huss, Magnus; Ohlberger, Jan; Gårdmark, Anna

2018-02-01

Current understanding of animal population responses to rising temperatures is based on the assumption that biological rates such as metabolism, which governs fundamental ecological processes, scale independently with body size and temperature, despite empirical evidence for interactive effects. Here, we investigate the consequences of interactive temperature- and size scaling of vital rates for the dynamics of populations experiencing warming using a stage-structured consumer-resource model. We show that interactive scaling alters population and stage-specific responses to rising temperatures, such that warming can induce shifts in population regulation and stage-structure, influence community structure and govern population responses to mortality. Analysing experimental data for 20 fish species, we found size-temperature interactions in intraspecific scaling of metabolic rate to be common. Given the evidence for size-temperature interactions and the ubiquity of size structure in animal populations, we argue that accounting for size-specific temperature effects is pivotal for understanding how warming affects animal populations and communities. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Recent Simulation Results on Ring Current Dynamics Using the Comprehensive Ring Current Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zheng, Yihua; Zaharia, Sorin G.; Lui, Anthony T. Y.; Fok, Mei-Ching

2010-01-01

Plasma sheet conditions and electromagnetic field configurations are both crucial in determining ring current evolution and connection to the ionosphere. In this presentation, we investigate how different conditions of plasma sheet distribution affect ring current properties. Results include comparative studies in 1) varying the radial distance of the plasma sheet boundary; 2) varying local time distribution of the source population; 3) varying the source spectra. Our results show that a source located farther away leads to a stronger ring current than a source that is closer to the Earth. Local time distribution of the source plays an important role in determining both the radial and azimuthal (local time) location of the ring current peak pressure. We found that post-midnight source locations generally lead to a stronger ring current. This finding is in agreement with Lavraud et al.. However, our results do not exhibit any simple dependence of the local time distribution of the peak ring current (within the lower energy range) on the local time distribution of the source, as suggested by Lavraud et al. [2008]. In addition, we will show how different specifications of the magnetic field in the simulation domain affect ring current dynamics in reference to the 20 November 2007 storm, which include initial results on coupling the CRCM with a three-dimensional (3-D) plasma force balance code to achieve self-consistency in the magnetic field.

Towards a Population Dynamics Theory for Evolutionary Computing: Learning from Biological Population Dynamics in Nature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Zhanshan (Sam)

In evolutionary computing (EC), population size is one of the critical parameters that a researcher has to deal with. Hence, it was no surprise that the pioneers of EC, such as De Jong (1975) and Holland (1975), had already studied the population sizing from the very beginning of EC. What is perhaps surprising is that more than three decades later, we still largely depend on the experience or ad-hoc trial-and-error approach to set the population size. For example, in a recent monograph, Eiben and Smith (2003) indicated: "In almost all EC applications, the population size is constant and does not change during the evolutionary search." Despite enormous research on this issue in recent years, we still lack a well accepted theory for population sizing. In this paper, I propose to develop a population dynamics theory forEC with the inspiration from the population dynamics theory of biological populations in nature. Essentially, the EC population is considered as a dynamic system over time (generations) and space (search space or fitness landscape), similar to the spatial and temporal dynamics of biological populations in nature. With this conceptual mapping, I propose to 'transplant' the biological population dynamics theory to EC via three steps: (i) experimentally test the feasibility—whether or not emulating natural population dynamics improves the EC performance; (ii) comparatively study the underlying mechanisms—why there are improvements, primarily via statistical modeling analysis; (iii) conduct theoretical analysis with theoretical models such as percolation theory and extended evolutionary game theory that are generally applicable to both EC and natural populations. This article is a summary of a series of studies we have performed to achieve the general goal [27][30]-[32]. In the following, I start with an extremely brief introduction on the theory and models of natural population dynamics (Sections 1 & 2). In Sections 4 to 6, I briefly discuss three categories of population dynamics models: deterministic modeling with Logistic chaos map as an example, stochastic modeling with spatial distribution patterns as an example, as well as survival analysis and extended evolutionary game theory (EEGT) modeling. Sample experiment results with Genetic algorithms (GA) are presented to demonstrate the applications of these models. The proposed EC population dynamics approach also makes survival selection largely unnecessary or much simplified since the individuals are naturally selected (controlled) by the mathematical models for EC population dynamics.

Dynamics of Cathode-Associated Microbial Communities and Metabolite Profiles in a Glycerol-Fed Bioelectrochemical System

PubMed Central

Dennis, Paul G.; Harnisch, Falk; Yeoh, Yun Kit; Tyson, Gene W.

2013-01-01

Electrical current can be used to supply reducing power to microbial metabolism. This phenomenon is typically studied in pure cultures with added redox mediators to transfer charge. Here, we investigate the development of a current-fed mixed microbial community fermenting glycerol at the cathode of a bioelectrochemical system in the absence of added mediators and identify correlations between microbial diversity and the respective product outcomes. Within 1 week of inoculation, a Citrobacter population represented 95 to 99% of the community and the metabolite profiles were dominated by 1,3-propanediol and ethanol. Over time, the Citrobacter population decreased in abundance while that of a Pectinatus population and the formation of propionate increased. After 6 weeks, several Clostridium populations and the production of valerate increased, which suggests that chain elongation was being performed. Current supply was stopped after 9 weeks and was associated with a decrease in glycerol degradation and alcohol formation. This decrease was reversed by resuming current supply; however, when hydrogen gas was bubbled through the reactor during open-circuit operation (open-circuit potential) as an alternative source of reducing power, glycerol degradation and metabolite production were unaffected. Cyclic voltammetry revealed that the community appeared to catalyze the hydrogen evolution reaction, leading to a +400-mV shift in its onset potential. Our results clearly demonstrate that current supply can alter fermentation profiles; however, further work is needed to determine the mechanisms behind this effect. In addition, operational conditions must be refined to gain greater control over community composition and metabolic outcomes. PMID:23603684

Bottlenecks and multiple introductions: Population genetics of the vector of avian malaria in Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fonseca, Dina M.; LaPointe, Dennis A.; Fleischer, Robert C.

2000-01-01

Avian malaria has had a profound impact on the demographics and behaviour of Hawaiian forest birds since its vector, Culex quinquefasciatusthe southern house mosquito, was first introduced to Hawaii around 1830. In order to understand the dynamics of the disease in Hawaii and gain insights into the evolution of vector-mediated parasite–host interactions in general we studied the population genetics of Cx. quinquefasciatus in the Hawaiian Islands. We used both microsatellite and mitochondrial loci. Not surprisingly we found that mosquitoes in Midway, a small island in the Western group, are quite distinct from the populations in the main Hawaiian Islands. However, we also found that in general mosquito populations are relatively isolated even among the main islands, in particular between Hawaii (the Big Island) and the remaining Hawaiian Islands. We found evidence of bottlenecks among populations within the Big Island and an excess of alleles in Maui, the site of the original introduction. The mitochondrial diversity was typically low but higher than expected. The current distribution of mitochondrial haplotypes combined with the microsatellite information lead us to conclude that there have been several introductions and to speculate on some processes that may be responsible for the current population genetics of vectors of avian malaria in Hawaii.

Modeling the spatial and temporal population dynamics of the copepod Centropages typicus in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea during the year 2001 using a 3D ecosystem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlotti, F.; Eisenhauer, L.; Campbell, R.; Diaz, F.

2014-07-01

The spatio-temporal dynamics of a simulated Centropages typicus (Kröyer) population during the year 2001 at the regional scale of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea are addressed using a 3D coupled physical-biogeochemical model. The setup of the coupled biological model comprises a pelagic plankton ecosystem model and a stage-structured population model forced by the 3D velocity and temperature fields provided by an eddy-resolving regional circulation model. The population model for C. typicus (C. t. below) represents demographic processes through five groups of developmental stages, which depend on underlying individual growth and development processes and are forced by both biotic (prey and predator fields) and abiotic (temperature, advection) factors from the coupled physical-biogeochemical model. The objective is to characterize C. t. ontogenic habitats driven by physical and trophic processes. The annual dynamics are presented for two of the main oceanographic stations in the Gulf of Lions, which are representative of shelf and open sea conditions, while the spatial distributions over the whole area are presented for three dates during the year, in early and late spring and in winter. The simulated spatial patterns of C. t. developmental stages are closely related to mesoscale hydrodynamic features and circulation patterns. The seasonal and spatial distributions on the Gulf of Lions shelf depend on the seasonal interplay between the Rhône river plume, the mesoscale eddies on the shelf and the Northern Current acting as either as a dynamic barrier between the shelf and the open sea or allowing cross-shelf exchanges. In the central gyre of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea, the patchiness of plankton is tightly linked to mesoscale frontal systems, surface eddies and filaments and deep gradients. Due to its flexibility in terms of its diet, C. t. succeeds in maintaining its population in both coastal and offshore areas year round. The simulations suggest that the winte-spring food conditions are more favorable on the shelf for C. t., whereas in late summer and fall, the offshore depth-integrated food biomasses represent a larger resource for C. t., particularly when mesoscale structures and vertical discontinuities increase food patchiness. The development and reproduction of C. t. depend on the prey field within the mesoscale structures that induce a contrasting spatial distribution of successive developmental stages on a given observation date. In late fall and winter, the results of the model suggest the existence of three refuge areas where the population maintains winter generations near the coast and within the Rhone River plume, or offshore within canyons within the shelf break, or in the frontal system related to the Northern Current. The simulated spatial and temporal distributions as well as the life cycle and physiological features of C. t. are discussed in light of recent reviews on the dynamics of C. t. in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea.

Evidence for feedback and stellar-dynamically regulated bursty star cluster formation: the case of the Orion Nebula Cluster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroupa, Pavel; Jeřábková, Tereza; Dinnbier, František; Beccari, Giacomo; Yan, Zhiqiang

2018-04-01

A scenario for the formation of multiple co-eval populations separated in age by about 1 Myr in very young clusters (VYCs, ages less than 10 Myr) and with masses in the range 600-20 000 M⊙ is outlined. It rests upon a converging inflow of molecular gas building up a first population of pre-main sequence stars. The associated just-formed O stars ionise the inflow and suppress star formation in the embedded cluster. However, they typically eject each other out of the embedded cluster within 106 yr, that is before the molecular cloud filament can be ionised entirely. The inflow of molecular gas can then resume forming a second population. This sequence of events can be repeated maximally over the life-time of the molecular cloud (about 10 Myr), but is not likely to be possible in VYCs with mass <300 M⊙, because such populations are not likely to contain an O star. Stellar populations heavier than about 2000 M⊙ are likely to have too many O stars for all of these to eject each other from the embedded cluster before they disperse their natal cloud. VYCs with masses in the range 600-2000 M⊙ are likely to have such multi-age populations, while VYCs with masses in the range 2000-20 000 M⊙ can also be composed solely of co-eval, mono-age populations. More massive VYCs are not likely to host sub-populations with age differences of about 1 Myr. This model is applied to the Orion Nebula Cluster (ONC), in which three well-separated pre-main sequences in the colour-magnitude diagram of the cluster have recently been discovered. The mass-inflow history is constrained using this model and the number of OB stars ejected from each population are estimated for verification using Gaia data. As a further consequence of the proposed model, the three runaway O star systems, AE Aur, μ Col and ι Ori, are considered as significant observational evidence for stellar-dynamical ejections of massive stars from the oldest population in the ONC. Evidence for stellar-dynamical ejections of massive stars in the currently forming population is also discussed.

Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

2017-07-01

Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may have played a role in driving local dynamics. More generally, we demonstrated how state-space models can be used to test evidence for population spatial structure based on survey time-series data. Our study shows the importance of considering spatially structured dynamics, as the inferences from such an approach can lead to a different ecological understanding of the drivers of population declines, and fundamentally different management actions to restore populations. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

The dynamics of sex ratio evolution: from the gene perspective to multilevel selection.

PubMed

Argasinski, Krzysztof

2013-01-01

The new dynamical game theoretic model of sex ratio evolution emphasizes the role of males as passive carriers of sex ratio genes. This shows inconsistency between population genetic models of sex ratio evolution and classical strategic models. In this work a novel technique of change of coordinates will be applied to the new model. This will reveal new aspects of the modelled phenomenon which cannot be shown or proven in the original formulation. The underlying goal is to describe the dynamics of selection of particular genes in the entire population, instead of in the same sex subpopulation, as in the previous paper and earlier population genetics approaches. This allows for analytical derivation of the unbiased strategic model from the model with rigorous non-simplified genetics. In effect, an alternative system of replicator equations is derived. It contains two subsystems: the first describes changes in gene frequencies (this is an alternative unbiased formalization of the Fisher-Dusing argument), whereas the second describes changes in the sex ratios in subpopulations of carriers of genes for each strategy. An intriguing analytical result of this work is that the fitness of a gene depends on the current sex ratio in the subpopulation of its carriers, not on the encoded individual strategy. Thus, the argument of the gene fitness function is not constant but is determined by the trajectory of the sex ratio among carriers of that gene. This aspect of the modelled phenomenon cannot be revealed by the static analysis. Dynamics of the sex ratio among gene carriers is driven by a dynamic "tug of war" between female carriers expressing the encoded strategic trait value and random partners of male carriers expressing the average population strategy (a primary sex ratio). This mechanism can be called "double-level selection". Therefore, gene interest perspective leads to multi-level selection.

Impact of Near-Earth Plasma Sheet Dynamics on the Ring Current Composition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kistler, L. M.; Mouikis, C.; Menz, A.; Spence, H. E.; Mitchell, D. G.; Gkioulidou, M.; Lanzerotti, L. J.; Skoug, R. M.; Larsen, B.; Claudepierre, S. G.; Fennell, J. F.; Blake, J. B.

2014-12-01

How the dynamics in the near-earth plasma sheet affects the heavy ion content, and therefore the ion pressure, of the ring current in Earth's magnetosphere is an outstanding question. Substorms accelerate plasma in the near-earth region and drive outflow from the aurora, and both these processes can preferentially enhance the population of heavy ions in this region. These heavy ions are then driven into the inner magnetosphere during storms. Thus understanding how the composition of the ring current changes requires simultaneous observations in the near-earth plasma sheet and in the inner magnetosphere. We use data from the CODIF instrument on Cluster and HOPE, RBSPICE, and MagEIS instruments on the Van Allen Probes to study the acceleration and transport of ions from the plasma sheet into the ring current. During the main phase of a geomagnetic storm on Aug 4-6, 2013, the Cluster spacecraft were moving inbound in the midnight central plasma sheet, while the apogees of the two Van Allen Probes were located on the duskside. The Cluster spacecraft measure the composition and spectral changes in the plasma sheet, while the Van Allen Probes measure the ions that reach the inner magnetosphere. A strong increase in 1-40 keV O+ was observed at the Cluster location during the storm main phase, and the Van Allen Probes observed both H+ and O+ being driven deep into the inner magnetosphere. By comparing the variations in phase space density (PSD) vs. magnetic moment at the Cluster and the Van Allen Probes locations, we examine how the composition changes non-adiabatically in the near-earth plasma sheet, and how those changes are propagated into the inner magnetosphere, populating the hto ion ring current.

Estimation of a genetically viable population for multigenerational interstellar voyaging: Review and data for project Hyperion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Cameron M.

2014-04-01

Designing interstellar starships for human migration to exoplanets requires establishing the starship population, which factors into many variables including closed-ecosystem design, architecture, mass and propulsion. I review the central issues of population genetics (effects of mutation, migration, selection and drift) for human populations on such voyages, specifically referencing a roughly 5-generation (c. 150-year) voyage currently in the realm of thought among Icarus Interstellar's Project Hyperion research group. I present several formulae as well as concrete numbers that can be used to help determine populations that could survive such journeys in good health. I find that previously proposed such populations, on the order of a few hundred individuals, are significantly too low to consider based on current understanding of vertebrate (including human) genetics and population dynamics. Population genetics theory, calculations and computer modeling determine that a properly screened and age- and sex-structured total founding population (Nc) of anywhere from roughly 14,000 to 44,000 people would be sufficient to survive such journeys in good health. A safe and well-considered Nc figure is 40,000, an Interstellar Migrant Population (IMP) composed of an Effective Population [Ne] of 23,400 reproductive males and females, the rest being pre- or post-reproductive individuals. This number would maintain good health over five generations despite (a) increased inbreeding resulting from a relatively small human population, (b) depressed genetic diversity due to the founder effect, (c) demographic change through time and (d) expectation of at least one severe population catastrophe over the 5-generation voyage.

Population Dynamics of Aphids on Cereals: Digging in the Time-Series Data to Reveal Population Regulation Caused by Temperature

PubMed Central

Brabec, Marek; Honěk, Alois; Pekár, Stano; Martinková, Zdenka

2014-01-01

Aphid populations show periodic fluctuations and many causes are attributed to their dynamic. We investigated the regulation by temperature of the aphid populations composed of Metopolophium dirhodum, Sitobion avenae, and Rhopalosiphum padi on winter wheat using a 24 years long time series data. We computed the sum of daily temperatures above 5°C, the threshold temperature for aphid development, and the sum of daily temperatures within the [0(threshold for wheat development),5] °C interval. Applying Generalised Additive Model framework we tested influences of temperature history expressed via degree days before the start of the aphid immigration on the length of their occurrence. We aimed to estimate the magnitude and direction of this influence, and how far to the past before the start of the aphid season the temperature effect goes and then identify processes responsible for the effect. We fitted four models that differed in the way of correcting for abundance in the previous year and in specification of temperature effects. Abundance in the previous year did not affect the length of period of aphid population growth on wheat. The temperature effect on the period length increased up to 123 days before the start of the current season, i.e. when wheat completed vernalization. Increased sum of daily temperatures above 5°C and the sum of daily temperatures within the [0,5] °C interval both shortened the length of period of aphid population growth. Stronger effect of the latter suggests that wheat can escape from aphid attacks if during winter temperatures range from 0 to 5°C. The temperature influence was not homogeneous in time. The strongest effect of past temperature was about 50 to 80 and 90 to 110 days before the beginning of the current aphid season indicating important role of termination of aphid egg dormancy and egg hatching. PMID:25184219

Simulating range-wide population and breeding habitat dynamics for an endangered woodland warbler in the face of uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adam Duarte,; Hatfield, Jeffrey; Todd M. Swannack,; Michael R. J. Forstner,; M. Clay Green,; Floyd W. Weckerly,

2015-01-01

Population viability analyses provide a quantitative approach that seeks to predict the possible future status of a species of interest under different scenarios and, therefore, can be important components of large-scale species’ conservation programs. We created a model and simulated range-wide population and breeding habitat dynamics for an endangered woodland warbler, the golden-cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia). Habitat-transition probabilities were estimated across the warbler's breeding range by combining National Land Cover Database imagery with multistate modeling. Using these estimates, along with recently published demographic estimates, we examined if the species can remain viable into the future given the current conditions. Lastly, we evaluated if protecting a greater amount of habitat would increase the number of warblers that can be supported in the future by systematically increasing the amount of protected habitat and comparing the estimated terminal carrying capacity at the end of 50 years of simulated habitat change. The estimated habitat-transition probabilities supported the hypothesis that habitat transitions are unidirectional, whereby habitat is more likely to diminish than regenerate. The model results indicated population viability could be achieved under current conditions, depending on dispersal. However, there is considerable uncertainty associated with the population projections due to parametric uncertainty. Model results suggested that increasing the amount of protected lands would have a substantial impact on terminal carrying capacities at the end of a 50-year simulation. Notably, this study identifies the need for collecting the data required to estimate demographic parameters in relation to changes in habitat metrics and population density in multiple regions, and highlights the importance of establishing a common definition of what constitutes protected habitat, what management goals are suitable within those protected areas, and a standard operating procedure to identify areas of priority for habitat conservation efforts. Therefore, we suggest future efforts focus on these aspects of golden-cheeked warbler conservation and ecology.

Of the Phrensy: an update on the epidemiology and pathogenesis of bacterial meningitis in the pediatric population.

PubMed

Janowski, Andrew; Newland, Jason

2017-01-01

In the past century, advances in antibiotics and vaccination have dramatically altered the incidence and clinical outcomes of bacterial meningitis. We review the shifting epidemiology of meningitis in children, including after the implementation of vaccines that target common meningitic pathogens and the introduction of intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis offered to mothers colonized with Streptococcus agalactiae . We also discuss what is currently known about the pathogenesis of meningitis. Recent studies of the human microbiome have illustrated dynamic relationships of bacterial and viral populations with the host, which may potentiate the risk of bacterial meningitis.

Temperature drives abundance fluctuations, but spatial dynamics is constrained by landscape configuration: Implications for climate-driven range shift in a butterfly.

PubMed

Fourcade, Yoan; Ranius, Thomas; Öckinger, Erik

2017-10-01

Prediction of species distributions in an altered climate requires knowledge on how global- and local-scale factors interact to limit their current distributions. Such knowledge can be gained through studies of spatial population dynamics at climatic range margins. Here, using a butterfly (Pyrgus armoricanus) as model species, we first predicted based on species distribution modelling that its climatically suitable habitats currently extend north of its realized range. Projecting the model into scenarios of future climate, we showed that the distribution of climatically suitable habitats may shift northward by an additional 400 km in the future. Second, we used a 13-year monitoring dataset including the majority of all habitat patches at the species northern range margin to assess the synergetic impact of temperature fluctuations and spatial distribution of habitat, microclimatic conditions and habitat quality, on abundance and colonization-extinction dynamics. The fluctuation in abundance between years was almost entirely determined by the variation in temperature during the species larval development. In contrast, colonization and extinction dynamics were better explained by patch area, between-patch connectivity and host plant density. This suggests that the response of the species to future climate change may be limited by future land use and how its host plants respond to climate change. It is, thus, probable that dispersal limitation will prevent P. armoricanus from reaching its potential future distribution. We argue that models of range dynamics should consider the factors influencing metapopulation dynamics, especially at the range edges, and not only broad-scale climate. It includes factors acting at the scale of habitat patches such as habitat quality and microclimate and landscape-scale factors such as the spatial configuration of potentially suitable patches. Knowledge of population dynamics under various environmental conditions, and the incorporation of realistic scenarios of future land use, appears essential to provide predictions useful for actions mitigating the negative effects of climate change. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Application of Sequence-Dependent Electrophoresis Fingerprinting in Exploring Biodiversity and Population Dynamics of Human Intestinal Microbiota: What Can Be Revealed?

PubMed Central

Huys, Geert; Vanhoutte, Tom; Vandamme, Peter

2008-01-01

Sequence-dependent electrophoresis (SDE) fingerprinting techniques such as denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) have become commonplace in the field of molecular microbial ecology. The success of the SDE technology lays in the fact that it allows visualization of the predominant members of complex microbial ecosystems independent of their culturability and without prior knowledge on the complexity and diversity of the ecosystem. Mainly using the prokaryotic 16S rRNA gene as PCR amplification target, SDE-based community fingerprinting turned into one of the leading molecular tools to unravel the diversity and population dynamics of human intestinal microbiota. The first part of this review covers the methodological concept of SDE fingerprinting and the technical hurdles for analyzing intestinal samples. Subsequently, the current state-of-the-art of DGGE and related techniques to analyze human intestinal microbiota from healthy individuals and from patients with intestinal disorders is surveyed. In addition, the applicability of SDE analysis to monitor intestinal population changes upon nutritional or therapeutic interventions is critically evaluated. PMID:19277102

An approach of the exact linearization techniques to analysis of population dynamics of the mosquito Aedes aegypti.

PubMed

Dos Reis, Célia A; Florentino, Helenice de O; Cólon, Diego; Rosa, Suélia R Fleury; Cantane, Daniela R

2018-05-01

Dengue fever, chikungunya and zika are caused by different viruses and mainly transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. These diseases have received special attention of public health officials due to the large number of infected people in tropical and subtropical countries and the possible sequels that those diseases can cause. In severe cases, the infection can have devastating effects, affecting the central nervous system, muscles, brain and respiratory system, often resulting in death. Vaccines against these diseases are still under development and, therefore, current studies are focused on the treatment of diseases and vector (mosquito) control. This work focuses on this last topic, and presents the analysis of a mathematical model describing the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, as well as present the design of a control law for the mosquito population (vector control) via exact linearization techniques and optimal control. This control strategy optimizes the use of resources for vector control, and focuses on the aquatic stage of the mosquito life. Theoretical and computational results are also presented. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Radiation Belt Storm Probes (RBSP) Energetic Particle, Composition, and Thermal plasma (ECT) Suite: Upcoming Opportunties for Testing Radiation Belt Acceleration Mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spence, Harlan; Reeves, Geoffrey

2012-07-01

The Radiation Belt Storm Probes (RBSP) mission will launch in late summer 2012 and begin its exploration of acceleration and dynamics of energetic particles in the inner magnetosphere. In this presentation, we discuss opportunities afforded by the RBSP Energetic Particle, Composition, and Thermal plasma (ECT) instrument suite to advance our understanding of acceleration processes in the radiation belts. The RBSP-ECT instrument suite comprehensively measures the electron and major ion populations of the inner magnetosphere, from the lowest thermal plasmas of the plasmasphere, to the hot plasma of the ring current, to the relativistic populations of the radiation belts. Collectively, the ECT measurements will reveal the complex cross-energy coupling of these colocated particle populations, which along with concurrent RBSP wave measurements, will permit various wave-particle acceleration mechanisms to be tested. We review the measurement capabilities of the RBSP-ECT instrument suite, and demonstrate several examples of how these measurements will be used to explore candidate acceleration mechanisms and dynamics of radiation belt particles.

Learning about evolution from sequence data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dayarian, Adel; Shraiman, Boris

2012-02-01

Recent advances in sequencing and in laboratory evolution experiments have made possible to obtain quantitative data on genetic diversity of populations and on the dynamics of evolution. This dynamics is shaped by the interplay between selection acting on beneficial and deleterious mutations and recombination which reshuffles genotypes. Mounting evidence suggests that natural populations harbor extensive fitness diversity, yet most of the currently available tools for analyzing polymorphism data are based on the neutral theory. Our aim is to develop methods to analyze genomic data for populations in the presence of the above-mentioned factors. We consider different evolutionary regimes - Muller's ratchet, mutation-recombination-selection balance and positive adaption rate - and revisit a number of observables considered in the nearly-neutral theory of evolution. In particular, we examine the coalescent structure in the presence of recombination and calculate quantities such as the distribution of the coalescent times along the genome, the distribution of haplotype block sizes and the correlation between ancestors of different loci along the genome. In addition, we characterize the probability and time of fixation of mutations as a function of their fitness effect.

Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics

PubMed Central

Zurell, Damaris; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pagel, Jörn; Cabral, Juliano S; Münkemüller, Tamara; Gravel, Dominique; Dullinger, Stefan; Normand, Signe; Schiffers, Katja H.; Moore, Kara A.; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.

2016-01-01

Increasing biodiversity loss due to climate change is one of the most vital challenges of the 21st century. To anticipate and mitigate biodiversity loss, models are needed that reliably project species’ range dynamics and extinction risks. Recently, several new approaches to model range dynamics have been developed to supplement correlative species distribution models (SDMs), but applications clearly lag behind model development. Indeed, no comparative analysis has been performed to evaluate their performance. Here, we build on process-based, simulated data for benchmarking five range (dynamic) models of varying complexity including classical SDMs, SDMs coupled with simple dispersal or more complex population dynamic models (SDM hybrids), and a hierarchical Bayesian process-based dynamic range model (DRM). We specifically test the effects of demographic and community processes on model predictive performance. Under current climate, DRMs performed best, although only marginally. Under climate change, predictive performance varied considerably, with no clear winners. Yet, all range dynamic models improved predictions under climate change substantially compared to purely correlative SDMs, and the population dynamic models also predicted reasonable extinction risks for most scenarios. When benchmarking data were simulated with more complex demographic and community processes, simple SDM hybrids including only dispersal often proved most reliable. Finally, we found that structural decisions during model building can have great impact on model accuracy, but prior system knowledge on important processes can reduce these uncertainties considerably. Our results reassure the clear merit in using dynamic approaches for modelling species’ response to climate change but also emphasise several needs for further model and data improvement. We propose and discuss perspectives for improving range projections through combination of multiple models and for making these approaches operational for large numbers of species. PMID:26872305

The integration of climate change, spatial dynamics, and habitat fragmentation: A conceptual overview.

PubMed

Holyoak, Marcel; Heath, Sacha K

2016-01-01

A growing number of studies have looked at how climate change alters the effects of habitat fragmentation and degradation on both single and multiple species; some raise concern that biodiversity loss and its effects will be exacerbated. The published literature on spatial dynamics (such as dispersal and metapopulation dynamics), habitat fragmentation and climate change requires synthesis and a conceptual framework to simplify thinking. We propose a framework that integrates how climate change affects spatial population dynamics and the effects of habitat fragmentation in terms of: (i) habitat quality, quantity and distribution; (ii) habitat connectivity; and (iii) the dynamics of habitat itself. We use the framework to categorize existing autecological studies and investigate how each is affected by anthropogenic climate change. It is clear that a changing climate produces changes in the geographic distribution of climatic conditions, and the amount and quality of habitat. The most thorough published studies show how such changes impact metapopulation persistence, source-sink dynamics, changes in species' geographic range and community composition. Climate-related changes in movement behavior and quantity, quality and distribution of habitat have also produced empirical changes in habitat connectivity for some species. An underexplored area is how habitat dynamics that are driven by climatic processes will affect species that live in dynamic habitats. We end our discussion by suggesting ways to improve current attempts to integrate climate change, spatial population dynamics and habitat fragmentation effects, and suggest distinct areas of study that might provide opportunities for more fully integrative work. © 2015 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics.

PubMed

Zurell, Damaris; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pagel, Jörn; Cabral, Juliano S; Münkemüller, Tamara; Gravel, Dominique; Dullinger, Stefan; Normand, Signe; Schiffers, Katja H; Moore, Kara A; Zimmermann, Niklaus E

2016-08-01

Increasing biodiversity loss due to climate change is one of the most vital challenges of the 21st century. To anticipate and mitigate biodiversity loss, models are needed that reliably project species' range dynamics and extinction risks. Recently, several new approaches to model range dynamics have been developed to supplement correlative species distribution models (SDMs), but applications clearly lag behind model development. Indeed, no comparative analysis has been performed to evaluate their performance. Here, we build on process-based, simulated data for benchmarking five range (dynamic) models of varying complexity including classical SDMs, SDMs coupled with simple dispersal or more complex population dynamic models (SDM hybrids), and a hierarchical Bayesian process-based dynamic range model (DRM). We specifically test the effects of demographic and community processes on model predictive performance. Under current climate, DRMs performed best, although only marginally. Under climate change, predictive performance varied considerably, with no clear winners. Yet, all range dynamic models improved predictions under climate change substantially compared to purely correlative SDMs, and the population dynamic models also predicted reasonable extinction risks for most scenarios. When benchmarking data were simulated with more complex demographic and community processes, simple SDM hybrids including only dispersal often proved most reliable. Finally, we found that structural decisions during model building can have great impact on model accuracy, but prior system knowledge on important processes can reduce these uncertainties considerably. Our results reassure the clear merit in using dynamic approaches for modelling species' response to climate change but also emphasize several needs for further model and data improvement. We propose and discuss perspectives for improving range projections through combination of multiple models and for making these approaches operational for large numbers of species. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Population and prehistory III: food-dependent demography in variable environments.

PubMed

Lee, Charlotte T; Puleston, Cedric O; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

2009-11-01

The population dynamics of preindustrial societies depend intimately on their surroundings, and food is a primary means through which environment influences population size and individual well-being. Food production requires labor; thus, dependence of survival and fertility on food involves dependence of a population's future on its current state. We use a perturbation approach to analyze the effects of random environmental variation on this nonlinear, age-structured system. We show that in expanding populations, direct environmental effects dominate induced population fluctuations, so environmental variability has little effect on mean hunger levels, although it does decrease population growth. The growth rate determines the time until population is limited by space. This limitation introduces a tradeoff between population density and well-being, so population effects become more important than the direct effects of the environment: environmental fluctuation increases mortality, releasing density dependence and raising average well-being for survivors. We discuss the social implications of these findings for the long-term fate of populations as they transition from expansion into limitation, given that conditions leading to high well-being during growth depress well-being during limitation.

Primordial binary populations in low-density star clusters as seen by Chandra: globular clusters versus old open clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Berg, Maureen C.

2015-08-01

The binaries in the core of a star cluster are the energy source that prevents the cluster from experiencing core collapse. To model the dynamical evolution of a cluster, it is important to have constraints on the primordial binary content. X-ray observations of old star clusters are very efficient in detecting the close interacting binaries among the cluster members. The X-ray sources in star clusters are a mix of binaries that were dynamically formed and primordial binaries. In massive, dense star clusters, dynamical encounters play an important role in shaping the properties and numbers of the binaries. In contrast, in the low-density clusters the impact of dynamical encounters is presumed to be very small, and the close binaries detected in X-rays represent a primordial population. The lowest density globular clusters have current masses and central densities similar to those of the oldest open clusters in our Milky Way. I will discuss the results of studies with the Chandra X-ray Observatory that have nevertheless revealed a clear dichotomy: far fewer (if any at all) X-ray sources are detected in the central regions of the low-density globular clusters compared to the number of secure cluster members that have been detected in old open clusters (above a limiting X-ray luminosity of typically 4e30 erg/s). The low stellar encounter rates imply that dynamical destruction of binaries can be ignored at present, therefore an explanation must be sought elsewhere. I will discuss several factors that can shed light on the implied differences between the primordial close binary populations in the two types of star clusters.

Low Dynamics, High Longevity and Persistence of Sessile Structural Species Dwelling on Mediterranean Coralligenous Outcrops

PubMed Central

Teixidó, Núria; Garrabou, Joaquim; Harmelin, Jean-George

2011-01-01

There is still limited understanding of the processes underlying benthic species dynamics in marine coastal habitats, which are of disproportionate importance in terms of productivity and biodiversity. The life-history traits of long-lived benthic species in these habitats are particularly poorly documented. In this study, we assessed decadal patterns of population dynamics for ten sponge and anthozoan species that play key structural roles in coralligenous outcrops (∼25 m depth) in two areas of the NW Mediterranean Sea. This study was based on examination of a unique long-term photographic series, which allowed analysis of population dynamics over extensive spatial and time spans for the very first time. Specifically, 671 individuals were censused annually over periods of 25-, 15-, and 5-years. This long-term study quantitatively revealed a common life-history pattern among the ten studied species, despite the fact they present different growth forms. Low mortality rates (3.4% yr−1 for all species combined) and infrequent recruitment events (mean value of 3.1±0.5 SE recruits yr−1) provided only a very small fraction of the new colonies required to maintain population sizes. Overall, annual mortality and recruitment rates did not differ significantly among years; however, some species displayed important mortality events and recruitment pulses, indicating variability among species. Based on the growth rates of these 10 species, we projected their longevity and, obtained a mean estimated age of 25–200 years. Finally, the low to moderate turnover rates (mean value 0.80% yr−1) observed among the coralligenous species were in agreement with their low dynamics and persistence. These results offer solid baseline data and reveal that these habitats are among the most vulnerable to the current increases of anthropogenic disturbances. PMID:21887308

Estimating fine-scale land use change dynamics using an expedient photointerpretation-based method

Treesearch

Tonya Lister; Andrew Lister; Eunice Alexander

2009-01-01

Population growth and urban expansion have resulted in the loss of forest land. With growing concerns about this loss and its implications for global processes and carbon budgets, there is a great need for detailed and reliable land use change data. Currently, the Northern Research Station uses an Annual Inventory design whereby all plots are revisited every 5 years...

Land use, population dynamics, and land-cover change in Eastern Puerto Rico

Treesearch

W.A. Gould; S. Martinuzzi; I.K. Páres-Ramos

2012-01-01

We assessed current and historic land use and land cover in the Luquillo Mountains and surrounding area in eastern Puerto Rico, including four small subwatersheds that are study watersheds of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) program. This region occupies an area of 1,616 square kilometers, about 18 percent of the total land...

Monitoring Bloom Dynamics of a Common Coastal Bioluminescent Ctenophore

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

profound impacts on coastal ecosystems. Although the causes of jellyfish blooms are not well understood, correlations have been made between...changes in jellyfish density and changes in physical factors, such as temperature and salinity, and biological factors, such as prey abundance and...Current sampling methods for jellyfish populations are done with net collections by hand at stations weekly, monthly, or seasonally. These time scales

A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

2008-09-01

An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization [Senina, I., Sibert, J., Lehodey, P., 2008. Parameter estimation for basin-scale ecosystem-linked population models of large pelagic predators: application to skipjack tuna. Progress in Oceanography]. Once this evaluation and parameterization is complete, it may be possible to use the model for management of tuna stocks in the context of climate and ecosystem variability, and to investigate potential changes due to anthropogenic activities including global warming and fisheries pressures and management scenarios.

Olive Fruit Fly (Bactrocera oleae) Population Dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean: Influence of Exogenous Uncertainty on a Monophagous Frugivorous Insect

PubMed Central

Ordano, Mariano; Engelhard, Izhar; Rempoulakis, Polychronis; Nemny-Lavy, Esther; Blum, Moshe; Yasin, Sami; Lensky, Itamar M.; Papadopoulos, Nikos T.; Nestel, David

2015-01-01

Despite of the economic importance of the olive fly (Bactrocera oleae) and the large amount of biological and ecological studies on the insect, the factors driving its population dynamics (i.e., population persistence and regulation) had not been analytically investigated until the present study. Specifically, our study investigated the autoregressive process of the olive fly populations, and the joint role of intrinsic and extrinsic factors molding the population dynamics of the insect. Accounting for endogenous dynamics and the influences of exogenous factors such as olive grove temperature, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the presence of potential host fruit, we modeled olive fly populations in five locations in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Our models indicate that the rate of population change is mainly shaped by first and higher order non-monotonic, endogenous dynamics (i.e., density-dependent population feedback). The olive grove temperature was the main exogenous driver, while the North Atlantic Oscillation and fruit availability acted as significant exogenous factors in one of the five populations. Seasonal influences were also relevant for three of the populations. In spite of exogenous effects, the rate of population change was fairly stable along time. We propose that a special reproductive mechanism, such as reproductive quiescence, allows populations of monophagous fruit flies such as the olive fly to remain stable. Further, we discuss how weather factors could impinge constraints on the population dynamics at the local level. Particularly, local temperature dynamics could provide forecasting cues for management guidelines. Jointly, our results advocate for establishing monitoring programs and for a major focus of research on the relationship between life history traits and populations dynamics. PMID:26010332

Moving forward in circles: challenges and opportunities in modelling population cycles.

PubMed

Barraquand, Frédéric; Louca, Stilianos; Abbott, Karen C; Cobbold, Christina A; Cordoleani, Flora; DeAngelis, Donald L; Elderd, Bret D; Fox, Jeremy W; Greenwood, Priscilla; Hilker, Frank M; Murray, Dennis L; Stieha, Christopher R; Taylor, Rachel A; Vitense, Kelsey; Wolkowicz, Gail S K; Tyson, Rebecca C

2017-08-01

Population cycling is a widespread phenomenon, observed across a multitude of taxa in both laboratory and natural conditions. Historically, the theory associated with population cycles was tightly linked to pairwise consumer-resource interactions and studied via deterministic models, but current empirical and theoretical research reveals a much richer basis for ecological cycles. Stochasticity and seasonality can modulate or create cyclic behaviour in non-intuitive ways, the high-dimensionality in ecological systems can profoundly influence cycling, and so can demographic structure and eco-evolutionary dynamics. An inclusive theory for population cycles, ranging from ecosystem-level to demographic modelling, grounded in observational or experimental data, is therefore necessary to better understand observed cyclical patterns. In turn, by gaining better insight into the drivers of population cycles, we can begin to understand the causes of cycle gain and loss, how biodiversity interacts with population cycling, and how to effectively manage wildly fluctuating populations, all of which are growing domains of ecological research. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Moving forward in circles: Challenges and opportunities in modeling population cycles

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barraquand, Frederic; Louca, Stilianos; Abbott, Karen C; Cobbold, Christina A; Cordoleani, Flora; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Elderd, Bret D; Fox, Jeremy W; Greenwood, Priscilla; Hilker, Frank M; Murray, Dennis; Stieha, Christopher R; Taylor, Rachel A; Vitense, Kelsey; Wolkowicz, Gail; Tyson, Rebecca C

2017-01-01

Population cycling is a widespread phenomenon, observed across a multitude of taxa in both laboratory and natural conditions. Historically, the theory associated with population cycles was tightly linked to pairwise consumer–resource interactions and studied via deterministic models, but current empirical and theoretical research reveals a much richer basis for ecological cycles. Stochasticity and seasonality can modulate or create cyclic behaviour in non-intuitive ways, the high-dimensionality in ecological systems can profoundly influence cycling, and so can demographic structure and eco-evolutionary dynamics. An inclusive theory for population cycles, ranging from ecosystem-level to demographic modelling, grounded in observational or experimental data, is therefore necessary to better understand observed cyclical patterns. In turn, by gaining better insight into the drivers of population cycles, we can begin to understand the causes of cycle gain and loss, how biodiversity interacts with population cycling, and how to effectively manage wildly fluctuating populations, all of which are growing domains of ecological research.

Dynamics of a low-density tiger population in Southeast Asia in the context of improved law enforcement.

PubMed

Duangchantrasiri, Somphot; Umponjan, Mayuree; Simcharoen, Saksit; Pattanavibool, Anak; Chaiwattana, Soontorn; Maneerat, Sompoch; Kumar, N Samba; Jathanna, Devcharan; Srivathsa, Arjun; Karanth, K Ullas

2016-06-01

Recovering small populations of threatened species is an important global conservation strategy. Monitoring the anticipated recovery, however, often relies on uncertain abundance indices rather than on rigorous demographic estimates. To counter the severe threat from poaching of wild tigers (Panthera tigris), the Government of Thailand established an intensive patrolling system in 2005 to protect and recover its largest source population in Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary. Concurrently, we assessed the dynamics of this tiger population over the next 8 years with rigorous photographic capture-recapture methods. From 2006 to 2012, we sampled across 624-1026 km(2) with 137-200 camera traps. Cameras deployed for 21,359 trap days yielded photographic records of 90 distinct individuals. We used closed model Bayesian spatial capture-recapture methods to estimate tiger abundances annually. Abundance estimates were integrated with likelihood-based open model analyses to estimate rates of annual and overall rates of survival, recruitment, and changes in abundance. Estimates of demographic parameters fluctuated widely: annual density ranged from 1.25 to 2.01 tigers/100 km(2) , abundance from 35 to 58 tigers, survival from 79.6% to 95.5%, and annual recruitment from 0 to 25 tigers. The number of distinct individuals photographed demonstrates the value of photographic capture-recapture methods for assessments of population dynamics in rare and elusive species that are identifiable from natural markings. Possibly because of poaching pressure, overall tiger densities at Huai Kha Khaeng were 82-90% lower than in ecologically comparable sites in India. However, intensified patrolling after 2006 appeared to reduce poaching and was correlated with marginal improvement in tiger survival and recruitment. Our results suggest that population recovery of low-density tiger populations may be slower than anticipated by current global strategies aimed at doubling the number of wild tigers in a decade. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Recent advances in applying mass spectrometry and systems biology to determine brain dynamics.

PubMed

Scifo, Enzo; Calza, Giulio; Fuhrmann, Martin; Soliymani, Rabah; Baumann, Marc; Lalowski, Maciej

2017-06-01

Neurological disorders encompass various pathologies which disrupt normal brain physiology and function. Poor understanding of their underlying molecular mechanisms and their societal burden argues for the necessity of novel prevention strategies, early diagnostic techniques and alternative treatment options to reduce the scale of their expected increase. Areas covered: This review scrutinizes mass spectrometry based approaches used to investigate brain dynamics in various conditions, including neurodegenerative and neuropsychiatric disorders. Different proteomics workflows for isolation/enrichment of specific cell populations or brain regions, sample processing; mass spectrometry technologies, for differential proteome quantitation, analysis of post-translational modifications and imaging approaches in the brain are critically deliberated. Future directions, including analysis of cellular sub-compartments, targeted MS platforms (selected/parallel reaction monitoring) and use of mass cytometry are also discussed. Expert commentary: Here, we summarize and evaluate current mass spectrometry based approaches for determining brain dynamics in health and diseases states, with a focus on neurological disorders. Furthermore, we provide insight on current trends and new MS technologies with potential to improve this analysis.

Chemical potential of quasi-equilibrium magnon gas driven by pure spin current.

PubMed

Demidov, V E; Urazhdin, S; Divinskiy, B; Bessonov, V D; Rinkevich, A B; Ustinov, V V; Demokritov, S O

2017-11-17

Pure spin currents provide the possibility to control the magnetization state of conducting and insulating magnetic materials. They allow one to increase or reduce the density of magnons, and achieve coherent dynamic states of magnetization reminiscent of the Bose-Einstein condensation. However, until now there was no direct evidence that the state of the magnon gas subjected to spin current can be treated thermodynamically. Here, we show experimentally that the spin current generated by the spin-Hall effect drives the magnon gas into a quasi-equilibrium state that can be described by the Bose-Einstein statistics. The magnon population function is characterized either by an increased effective chemical potential or by a reduced effective temperature, depending on the spin current polarization. In the former case, the chemical potential can closely approach, at large driving currents, the lowest-energy magnon state, indicating the possibility of spin current-driven Bose-Einstein condensation.

Simulation model of Skeletonema costatum population dynamics in northern San Francisco Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cloern, J.E.; Cheng, R.T.

1981-01-01

A pseudo-two-dimensional model is developed to simulate population dynamics of one dominant phytoplankton species (Skeletonema costatum) in northern San Francisco Bay. The model is formulated around a conceptualization of this estuary as two distinct but coupled subsystems-a deep (10-20 m) central channel and lateral areas with shallow (<2 m) water and slow circulation. Algal growth rates are governed by solar irradiation, temperature and salinity, while population losses are assumed to result from grazing bycalanoid copepods. Consequences of estuarine gravitational circulation are approximated simply by reducing convective-dispersive transport in that section of the channel (null zone) where residual bottom currents are near zero, and lateral mixing is treated as a bulkexchange process between the channel and the shoals. Model output is consistent with the hypothesis that, because planktonic algae are light-limited, shallow areas are the sites of active population growth. Seasonal variation in the location of the null zone (a response to variable river discharge) is responsible for maintaining the spring bloom of neritic diatoms in the seaward reaches of the estuary (San Pablo Bay) and the summer bloom upstream (Suisun Bay). Model output suggests that these spring and summer blooms result from the same general process-establishment of populations over the shoals, where growth rates are rapid, coupled with reduced particulate transport due to estuarine gravitational circulation. It also suggests, however, that the relative importance of physical and biological processes to phytoplankton dynamics is different in San Pablo and Suisun Bays. Finally, the model has helped us determine those processes having sufficient importance to merit further refinement in the next generation of models, and it has given new direction to field studies. ?? 1981 Academic Press Inc. (London) Ltd.

Vulnerability of dynamic genetic conservation units of forest trees in Europe to climate change.

PubMed

Schueler, Silvio; Falk, Wolfgang; Koskela, Jarkko; Lefèvre, François; Bozzano, Michele; Hubert, Jason; Kraigher, Hojka; Longauer, Roman; Olrik, Ditte C

2014-05-01

A transnational network of genetic conservation units for forest trees was recently documented in Europe aiming at the conservation of evolutionary processes and the adaptive potential of natural or man-made tree populations. In this study, we quantified the vulnerability of individual conservation units and the whole network to climate change using climate favourability models and the estimated velocity of climate change. Compared to the overall climate niche of the analysed target species populations at the warm and dry end of the species niche are underrepresented in the network. However, by 2100, target species in 33-65 % of conservation units, mostly located in southern Europe, will be at the limit or outside the species' current climatic niche as demonstrated by favourabilities below required model sensitivities of 95%. The highest average decrease in favourabilities throughout the network can be expected for coniferous trees although they are mainly occurring within units in mountainous landscapes for which we estimated lower velocities of change. Generally, the species-specific estimates of favourabilities showed only low correlations to the velocity of climate change in individual units, indicating that both vulnerability measures should be considered for climate risk analysis. The variation in favourabilities among target species within the same conservation units is expected to increase with climate change and will likely require a prioritization among co-occurring species. The present results suggest that there is a strong need to intensify monitoring efforts and to develop additional conservation measures for populations in the most vulnerable units. Also, our results call for continued transnational actions for genetic conservation of European forest trees, including the establishment of dynamic conservation populations outside the current species distribution ranges within European assisted migration schemes. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Population Dynamics of Genetic Regulatory Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Erez

2005-03-01

Unlike common objects in physics, a biological cell processes information. The cell interprets its genome and transforms the genomic information content, through the action of genetic regulatory networks, into proteins which in turn dictate its metabolism, functionality and morphology. Understanding the dynamics of a population of biological cells presents a unique challenge. It requires to link the intracellular dynamics of gene regulation, through the mechanism of cell division, to the level of the population. We present experiments studying adaptive dynamics of populations of genetically homogeneous microorganisms (yeast), grown for long durations under steady conditions. We focus on population dynamics that do not involve random genetic mutations. Our experiments follow the long-term dynamics of the population distributions and allow to quantify the correlations among generations. We focus on three interconnected issues: adaptation of genetically homogeneous populations following environmental changes, selection processes on the population and population variability and expression distributions. We show that while the population exhibits specific short-term responses to environmental inputs, it eventually adapts to a robust steady-state, largely independent of external conditions. Cycles of medium-switch show that the adapted state is imprinted in the population and that this memory is maintained for many generations. To further study population adaptation, we utilize the process of gene recruitment whereby a gene naturally regulated by a specific promoter is placed under a different regulatory system. This naturally occurring process has been recognized as a major driving force in evolution. We have recruited an essential gene to a foreign regulatory network and followed the population long-term dynamics. Rewiring of the regulatory network allows us to expose their complex dynamics and phase space structure.

Deep sequencing of evolving pathogen populations: applications, errors, and bioinformatic solutions

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Deep sequencing harnesses the high throughput nature of next generation sequencing technologies to generate population samples, treating information contained in individual reads as meaningful. Here, we review applications of deep sequencing to pathogen evolution. Pioneering deep sequencing studies from the virology literature are discussed, such as whole genome Roche-454 sequencing analyses of the dynamics of the rapidly mutating pathogens hepatitis C virus and HIV. Extension of the deep sequencing approach to bacterial populations is then discussed, including the impacts of emerging sequencing technologies. While it is clear that deep sequencing has unprecedented potential for assessing the genetic structure and evolutionary history of pathogen populations, bioinformatic challenges remain. We summarise current approaches to overcoming these challenges, in particular methods for detecting low frequency variants in the context of sequencing error and reconstructing individual haplotypes from short reads. PMID:24428920

The evolution of labile traits in sex- and age-structured populations.

PubMed

Childs, Dylan Z; Sheldon, Ben C; Rees, Mark

2016-03-01

Many quantitative traits are labile (e.g. somatic growth rate, reproductive timing and investment), varying over the life cycle as a result of behavioural adaptation, developmental processes and plastic responses to the environment. At the population level, selection can alter the distribution of such traits across age classes and among generations. Despite a growing body of theoretical research exploring the evolutionary dynamics of labile traits, a data-driven framework for incorporating such traits into demographic models has not yet been developed. Integral projection models (IPMs) are increasingly being used to understand the interplay between changes in labile characters, life histories and population dynamics. One limitation of the IPM approach is that it relies on phenotypic associations between parents and offspring traits to capture inheritance. However, it is well-established that many different processes may drive these associations, and currently, no clear consensus has emerged on how to model micro-evolutionary dynamics in an IPM framework. We show how to embed quantitative genetic models of inheritance of labile traits into age-structured, two-sex models that resemble standard IPMs. Commonly used statistical tools such as GLMs and their mixed model counterparts can then be used for model parameterization. We illustrate the methodology through development of a simple model of egg-laying date evolution, parameterized using data from a population of Great tits (Parus major). We demonstrate how our framework can be used to project the joint dynamics of species' traits and population density. We then develop a simple extension of the age-structured Price equation (ASPE) for two-sex populations, and apply this to examine the age-specific contributions of different processes to change in the mean phenotype and breeding value. The data-driven framework we outline here has the potential to facilitate greater insight into the nature of selection and its consequences in settings where focal traits vary over the lifetime through ontogeny, behavioural adaptation and phenotypic plasticity, as well as providing a potential bridge between theoretical and empirical studies of labile trait variation. © 2016 The Authors Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Population dynamics in changing environments: the case of an eruptive forest pest species.

PubMed

Kausrud, Kyrre; Okland, Bjørn; Skarpaas, Olav; Grégoire, Jean-Claude; Erbilgin, Nadir; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2012-02-01

In recent decades we have seen rapid and co-occurring changes in landscape structure, species distributions and even climate as consequences of human activity. Such changes affect the dynamics of the interaction between major forest pest species, such as bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), and their host trees. Normally breeding mostly in broken or severely stressed spruce; at high population densities some bark beetle species can colonise and kill healthy trees on scales ranging from single trees in a stand to multi-annual landscape-wide outbreaks. In Eurasia, the largest outbreaks are caused by the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus (Linnaeus), which is common and shares a wide distribution with its main host, Norway spruce (Picea abies Karst.). A large literature is now available, from which this review aims to synthesize research relevant for the population dynamics of I. typographus and co-occurring species under changing conditions. We find that spruce bark beetle population dynamics tend to be metastable, but that mixed-species and age-heterogeneous forests with good site-matching tend to be less susceptible to large-scale outbreaks. While large accumulations of logs should be removed and/or debarked before the next swarming period, intensive removal of all coarse dead wood may be counterproductive, as it reduces the diversity of predators that in some areas may play a role in keeping I. typographus populations below the outbreak threshold, and sanitary logging frequently causes edge effects and root damage, reducing the resistance of remaining trees. It is very hard to predict the outcome of interspecific interactions due to invading beetle species or I. typographus establishing outside its current range, as they can be of varying sign and strength and may fluctuate depending on environmental factors and population phase. Most research indicates that beetle outbreaks will increase in frequency and magnitude as temperature, wind speed and precipitation variability increases, and that mitigating forestry practices should be adopted as soon as possible considering the time lags involved. © 2011 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2011 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

A System Dynamics Modeling of Water Supply and Demand in Las Vegas Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parajuli, R.; Kalra, A.; Mastino, L.; Velotta, M.; Ahmad, S.

2017-12-01

The rise in population and change in climate have posed the uncertainties in the balance between supply and demand of water. The current study deals with the water management issues in Las Vegas Valley (LVV) using Stella, a system dynamics modeling software, to model the feedback based relationship between supply and demand parameters. Population parameters were obtained from Center for Business and Economic Research while historical water demand and conservation practices were modeled as per the information provided by local authorities. The water surface elevation of Lake Mead, which is the prime source of water supply to the region, was modeled as the supply side whereas the water demand in LVV was modeled as the demand side. The study was done from the period of 1989 to 2049 with 1989 to 2012 as the historical one and the period from 2013 to 2049 as the future period. This study utilizes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project data sets (2013-2049) (CMIP3&5) to model different future climatic scenarios. The model simulates the past dynamics of supply and demand, and then forecasts the future water budget for the forecasted future population and future climatic conditions. The results can be utilized by the water authorities in understanding the future water status and hence plan suitable conservation policies to allocate future water budget and achieve sustainable water management.

Extending and expanding the Darwinian synthesis: the role of complex systems dynamics.

PubMed

Weber, Bruce H

2011-03-01

Darwinism is defined here as an evolving research tradition based upon the concepts of natural selection acting upon heritable variation articulated via background assumptions about systems dynamics. Darwin's theory of evolution was developed within a context of the background assumptions of Newtonian systems dynamics. The Modern Evolutionary Synthesis, or neo-Darwinism, successfully joined Darwinian selection and Mendelian genetics by developing population genetics informed by background assumptions of Boltzmannian systems dynamics. Currently the Darwinian Research Tradition is changing as it incorporates new information and ideas from molecular biology, paleontology, developmental biology, and systems ecology. This putative expanded and extended synthesis is most perspicuously deployed using background assumptions from complex systems dynamics. Such attempts seek to not only broaden the range of phenomena encompassed by the Darwinian Research Tradition, such as neutral molecular evolution, punctuated equilibrium, as well as developmental biology, and systems ecology more generally, but to also address issues of the emergence of evolutionary novelties as well as of life itself. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conformational ensembles of RNA oligonucleotides from integrating NMR and molecular simulations.

PubMed

Bottaro, Sandro; Bussi, Giovanni; Kennedy, Scott D; Turner, Douglas H; Lindorff-Larsen, Kresten

2018-05-01

RNA molecules are key players in numerous cellular processes and are characterized by a complex relationship between structure, dynamics, and function. Despite their apparent simplicity, RNA oligonucleotides are very flexible molecules, and understanding their internal dynamics is particularly challenging using experimental data alone. We show how to reconstruct the conformational ensemble of four RNA tetranucleotides by combining atomistic molecular dynamics simulations with nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy data. The goal is achieved by reweighting simulations using a maximum entropy/Bayesian approach. In this way, we overcome problems of current simulation methods, as well as in interpreting ensemble- and time-averaged experimental data. We determine the populations of different conformational states by considering several nuclear magnetic resonance parameters and point toward properties that are not captured by state-of-the-art molecular force fields. Although our approach is applied on a set of model systems, it is fully general and may be used to study the conformational dynamics of flexible biomolecules and to detect inaccuracies in molecular dynamics force fields.

Locking horns with Hawai‘i’s non-native ungulate issues

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, Steve

2014-01-01

Conservation and management interests for sustained-yield hunting of non-native ungulates in Hawai‘i have conflicted with the conservation of native biota for several decades. Hawaiian ecosystems evolved in the absence of large mammals and all currently hunted animals in Hawai‘i are non-native species. The best-studied aspects of Hawai‘i’s ungulates have dealt primarily with direct negative effects on native biota in natural areas, but there has been little research in population dynamics for sustained-yield management. Ungulates have been removed from approximately 750 km2 throughout the Hawaiian Islands to protect these natural areas, thereby reducing the amount of land area available for hunting activities and the maintenance of game populations. At the same time, unauthorized introductions of additional wild ungulate species between Hawaiian Islands have recently increased in frequency. The majority of hunting activities are of feral domestic livestock species for subsistence purposes, which typically do not generate sufficient revenue to offset costs of game management. Moreover, bag limits and seasons are generally not determined from biological criteria because harvest reporting is voluntary and game populations are rarely monitored. Consequently, ungulate populations cannot be managed for any particular level of abundance or other objectives. Research and monitoring which emphasize population dynamics and productivity would enable more precisely regulated sustained-yield game management programs and may reduce potential conflicts with the conservation of native biota.

An individual-based model of zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics.

PubMed

Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R R

2015-01-01

Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level.

An Individual-Based Model of Zebrafish Population Dynamics Accounting for Energy Dynamics

PubMed Central

Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R. R.

2015-01-01

Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level. PMID:25938409

The impact of rapid evolution on population dynamics in the wild: experimental test of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

PubMed

Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Hare, J Daniel

2011-11-01

Rapid evolution challenges the assumption that evolution is too slow to impact short-term ecological dynamics. This insight motivates the study of 'Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics' or how evolution and ecological processes reciprocally interact on short time scales. We tested how rapid evolution impacts concurrent population dynamics using an aphid (Myzus persicae) and an undomesticated host (Hirschfeldia incana) in replicated wild populations. We manipulated evolvability by creating non-evolving (single clone) and potentially evolving (two-clone) aphid populations that contained genetic variation in intrinsic growth rate. We observed significant evolution in two-clone populations whether or not they were exposed to predators and competitors. Evolving populations grew up to 42% faster and attained up to 67% higher density, compared with non-evolving control populations but only in treatments exposed to competitors and predators. Increased density also correlates with relative fitness of competing clones suggesting a full eco-evolutionary dynamic cycle defined as reciprocal interactions between evolution and density. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Experimental test of an eco-evolutionary dynamic feedback loop between evolution and population density in the green peach aphid.

PubMed

Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Daniel Hare, J

2013-05-01

An eco-evolutionary feedback loop is defined as the reciprocal impacts of ecology on evolutionary dynamics and evolution on ecological dynamics on contemporary timescales. We experimentally tested for an eco-evolutionary feedback loop in the green peach aphid, Myzus persicae, by manipulating initial densities and evolution. We found strong evidence that initial aphid density alters the rate and direction of evolution, as measured by changes in genotype frequencies through time. We also found that evolution of aphids within only 16 days, or approximately three generations, alters the rate of population growth and predicts density compared to nonevolving controls. The impact of evolution on population dynamics also depended on density. In one evolution treatment, evolution accelerated population growth by up to 10.3% at high initial density or reduced it by up to 6.4% at low initial density. The impact of evolution on population growth was as strong as or stronger than that caused by a threefold change in intraspecific density. We found that, taken together, ecological condition, here intraspecific density, alters evolutionary dynamics, which in turn alter concurrent population growth rate (ecological dynamics) in an eco-evolutionary feedback loop. Our results suggest that ignoring evolution in studies predicting population dynamics might lead us to over- or underestimate population density and that we cannot predict the evolutionary outcome within aphid populations without considering population size.

Population dynamics of HIV-1 inferred from gene sequences.

PubMed Central

Grassly, N C; Harvey, P H; Holmes, E C

1999-01-01

A method for the estimation of population dynamic history from sequence data is described and used to investigate the past population dynamics of HIV-1 subtypes A and B. Using both gag and env gene alignments the effective population size of each subtype is estimated and found to be surprisingly small. This may be a result of the selective sweep of mutations through the population, or may indicate an important role of genetic drift in the fixation of mutations. The implications of these results for the spread of drug-resistant mutations and transmission dynamics, and also the roles of selection and recombination in shaping HIV-1 genetic diversity, are discussed. A larger estimated effective population size for subtype A may be the result of differences in time of origin, transmission dynamics, and/or population structure. To investigate the importance of population structure a model of population subdivision was fitted to each subtype, although the improvement in likelihood was found to be nonsignificant. PMID:9927440

Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

PubMed

Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

2014-11-01

Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean population size. Results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of a species over its range may be facilitated by taking the spatial structure of population size into account as well as by considering changes in population processes as a function of position within the range of the species. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

DARe: Dark Asteroid Rendezvous

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noll, K. S.; McFadden, L. A.; Rhoden, A. R.; Lim, L. F.; Boynton, W. V.; Carter, L. M.; Collins, G.; Englander, J. A.; Goossens, S. A.; Grundy, W. M.;

Electron Dynamics Within the Electron Diffusion Region of Asymmetric Reconnection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Argall, M. R.; Paulson, K.; Alm, L.; Rager, A.; Dorelli, J.; Shuster, J.; Wang, S.; Torbert, R. B.; Vaith, H.; Dors, I.; Chutter, M.; Farrugia, C.; Burch, J.; Pollock, C.; Giles, B.; Gershman, D.; Lavraud, B.; Russell, C. T.; Strangeway, R.; Magnes, W.; Lindqvist, P.-A.; Khotyaintsev, Yu. V.; Ergun, R. E.; Ahmadi, N.

2018-01-01

We investigate the agyrotropic nature of electron distribution functions and their substructure to illuminate electron dynamics in a previously reported electron diffusion region (EDR) event. In particular, agyrotropy is examined as a function of energy to reveal detailed finite Larmor radius effects for the first time. It is shown that the previously reported ˜66 eV agyrotropic "crescent" population that has been accelerated as a result of reconnection is evanescent in nature because it mixes with a denser, gyrotopic background. Meanwhile, accelerated agyrotropic populations at 250 and 500 eV are more prominent because the background plasma at those energies is more tenuous. Agyrotropy at 250 and 500 eV is also more persistent than at 66 eV because of finite Larmor radius effects; agyrotropy is observed 2.5 ion inertial lengths from the EDR at 500 eV, but only in close proximity to the EDR at 66 eV. We also observe linearly polarized electrostatic waves leading up to and within the EDR. They have wave normal angles near 90°, and their occurrence and intensity correlate with agyrotropy. Within the EDR, they modulate the flux of 500 eV electrons travelling along the current layer. The net electric field intensifies the reconnection current, resulting in a flow of energy from the fields into the plasma.

Tracing the Early Development of Harmful Algal Blooms on the West Florida Shelf with the Aid of Lagrangian Coherent Structures

PubMed Central

Olascoaga, M. J.; Beron-Vera, F. J.; Brand, L. E.; Koçak, H.

2008-01-01

Several theories have been proposed to explain the development of harmful algal blooms (HABs) produced by the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis on the West Florida Shelf. However, because the early stages of HAB development are usually not detected, these theories have been so far very difficult to verify. In this paper we employ simulated Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs) to trace potential early locations of the development of a HAB in late 2004 before it was transported to a region where it could be detected by satellite imagery. The LCSs, which are extracted from surface ocean currents produced by a data-assimilative HYCOM (HYbrid-Coordinate Ocean Model) simulation, constitute material fluid barriers that demarcate potential pathways for HAB evolution. Using a simplified population dynamics model we infer the factors that could possibly lead to the development of the HAB in question. The population dynamics model determines nitrogen in two components, nutrients and phytoplankton, which are assumed to be passively advected by surface ocean currents produced by the above HYCOM simulation. Two nutrient sources are inferred for the HAB whose evolution is found to be strongly tied to the simulated LCSs. These nutrient sources are found to be located nearshore and possibly due to land runoff. PMID:19137076

Ecological and economic analysis of poaching of the greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) in Nepal.

PubMed

Poudyal, Mahesh; Rothley, Kristina; Knowler, Duncan

2009-10-01

Nepal's greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) faces serious threats from poaching. Poaching of these rhinos is a complex problem, influenced by such diverse factors as the price of rhino horn on the international market, local socioeconomic factors, and the population dynamics of the species. Few studies have attempted to address this complexity. In this study, we model the poaching and population dynamics of the one-horned rhinoceros within an integrated framework of ecological, socioeconomic, political, and legal dimensions. The poaching model for rhinos in Royal Chitwan National Park (RCNP) in Nepal is combined with the population model for the species within a simulation framework and explored under various alternative policy scenarios with differing external socioeconomic and political conditions as well as internal policy response. We predict that, under the current (2003-2005) rhino conservation strategy, poaching would continue to be a major threat to the rhino population in RCNP. Furthermore, the internal policy response must begin to consider external factors such as socioeconomic conditions within the park buffer zone to be more effective in the long run. Finally, we find that, for long-run control, antipoaching policies should be directed at increasing the opportunity costs of poaching by creating better alternative economic opportunities, and at antipoaching enforcement.

Consumers limit the abundance and dynamics of a perennial shrub with a seed bank

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kauffman, M.J.; Maron, J.L.

2006-01-01

For nearly 30 years, ecologists have argued that predators of seeds and seedlings seldom have population-level effects on plants with persistent seed banks and density-dependent seedling survival. We parameterized stage-based population models that incorporated density dependence and seed dormancy with data from a 5.5-year experiment that quantified how granivorous mice and herbivorous voles influence bush lupine (Lupinus arboreus) demography. We asked how seed dormancy and density-dependent seedling survival mediate the impacts of these consumers in dune and grassland habitats. In dune habitat, mice reduced analytical ?? (the intrinsic rate of population growth) by 39%, the equilibrium number of above-ground plants by 90%, and the seed bank by 98%; voles had minimal effects. In adjacent grasslands, mice had minimal effects, but seedling herbivory by voles reduced analytical ?? by 15% and reduced both the equilibrium number of aboveground plants and dormant seeds by 63%. A bootstrap analysis demonstrated that these consumer effects were robust to parameter uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that the quantitative strengths of seed dormancy and density-dependent seedling survival-not their mere existence-critically mediate consumer effects. This study suggests that plant population dynamics and distribution may be more strongly influenced by consumers of seeds and seedlings than is currently recognized. ?? 2006 by The University of Chicago.

ON THE RARITY OF X-RAY BINARIES WITH NAKED HELIUM DONORS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Linden, T.; Valsecchi, F.; Kalogera, V.

The paucity of known high-mass X-ray binaries (HMXBs) with naked He donor stars (hereafter He star) in the Galaxy has been noted over the years as a surprising fact, given the significant number of Galactic HMXBs containing H-rich donors, which are expected to be their progenitors. This contrast has further sharpened in light of recent observations uncovering a preponderance of HMXBs hosting loosely bound Be donors orbiting neutron stars (NSs), which would be expected to naturally evolve into He-HMXBs through dynamical mass transfer onto the NS and a common-envelope (CE) phase. Hence, reconciling the large population of Be-HMXBs with themore » observation of only one He-HMXB can help constrain the dynamics of CE physics. Here, we use detailed stellar structure and evolution models and show that binary mergers of HMXBs during CE events must be common in order to resolve the tension between these observed populations. We find that, quantitatively, this scenario remains consistent with the typically adopted energy parameterization of CE evolution, yielding expected populations which are not at odds with current observations. However, future observations which better constrain the underlying population of loosely bound O/B-NS binaries are likely to place significant constraints on the efficiency of CE ejection.« less

Geographic variation in density-dependent dynamics impacts the synchronizing effect of dispersal and regional stochasticity

Treesearch

Andrew M. Liebhold; Derek M. Johnson; Ottar N. Bj& #248rnstad

2006-01-01

Explanations for the ubiquitous presence of spatially synchronous population dynamics have assumed that density-dependent processes governing the dynamics of local populations are identical among disjunct populations, and low levels of dispersal or small amounts of regionalized stochasticity ("Moran effect") can act to synchronize populations. In this study...

Human Disturbance Influences Reproductive Success and Growth Rate in California Sea Lions (Zalophus californianus)

PubMed Central

French, Susannah S.; González-Suárez, Manuela; Young, Julie K.; Durham, Susan; Gerber, Leah R.

2011-01-01

The environment is currently undergoing changes at both global (e.g., climate change) and local (e.g., tourism, pollution, habitat modification) scales that have the capacity to affect the viability of animal and plant populations. Many of these changes, such as human disturbance, have an anthropogenic origin and therefore may be mitigated by management action. To do so requires an understanding of the impact of human activities and changing environmental conditions on population dynamics. We investigated the influence of human activity on important life history parameters (reproductive rate, and body condition, and growth rate of neonate pups) for California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) in the Gulf of California, Mexico. Increased human presence was associated with lower reproductive rates, which translated into reduced long-term population growth rates and suggested that human activities are a disturbance that could lead to population declines. We also observed higher body growth rates in pups with increased exposure to humans. Increased growth rates in pups may reflect a density dependent response to declining reproductive rates (e.g., decreased competition for resources). Our results highlight the potentially complex changes in life history parameters that may result from human disturbance, and their implication for population dynamics. We recommend careful monitoring of human activities in the Gulf of California and emphasize the importance of management strategies that explicitly consider the potential impact of human activities such as ecotourism on vertebrate populations. PMID:21436887

Evaluating water conservation and reuse policies using a dynamic water balance model.

PubMed

Qaiser, Kamal; Ahmad, Sajjad; Johnson, Walter; Batista, Jacimaria R

2013-02-01

A dynamic water balance model is created to examine the effects of different water conservation policies and recycled water use on water demand and supply in a region faced with water shortages and significant population growth, the Las Vegas Valley (LVV). The model, developed using system dynamics approach, includes an unusual component of the water system, return flow credits, where credits are accrued for returning treated wastewater to the water supply source. In LVV, Lake Mead serves as, both the drinking water source and the receiving body for treated wastewater. LVV has a consumptive use allocation from Lake Mead but return flow credits allow the water agency to pull out additional water equal to the amount returned as treated wastewater. This backdrop results in a scenario in which conservation may cause a decline in the available water supply. Current water use in LVV is 945 lpcd (250 gpcd), which the water agency aims to reduce to 752 lpcd (199 gpcd) by 2035, mainly through water conservation. Different conservation policies focused on indoor and outdoor water use, along with different population growth scenarios, are modeled for their effects on the water demand and supply. Major contribution of this study is in highlighting the importance of outdoor water conservation and the effectiveness of reducing population growth rate in addressing the future water shortages. The water agency target to decrease consumption, if met completely through outdoor conservation, coupled with lower population growth rate, can potentially satisfy the Valley's water demands through 2035.

Population genetics of Ice Age brown bears

PubMed Central

Leonard, Jennifer A.; Wayne, Robert K.; Cooper, Alan

2000-01-01

The Pleistocene was a dynamic period for Holarctic mammal species, complicated by episodes of glaciation, local extinctions, and intercontinental migration. The genetic consequences of these events are difficult to resolve from the study of present-day populations. To provide a direct view of population genetics in the late Pleistocene, we measured mitochondrial DNA sequence variation in seven permafrost-preserved brown bear (Ursus arctos) specimens, dated from 14,000 to 42,000 years ago. Approximately 36,000 years ago, the Beringian brown bear population had a higher genetic diversity than any extant North American population, but by 15,000 years ago genetic diversity appears similar to the modern day. The older, genetically diverse, Beringian population contained sequences from three clades now restricted to local regions within North America, indicating that current phylogeographic patterns may provide misleading data for evolutionary studies and conservation management. The late Pleistocene phylogeographic data also indicate possible colonization routes to areas south of the Cordilleran ice sheet. PMID:10677513

Genomic Differentiation and Demographic Histories of Atlantic and Indo-Pacific Yellowfin Tuna (Thunnus albacares) Populations

PubMed Central

Damerau, Malte; Matschiner, Michael; Jentoft, Sissel

2017-01-01

Recent developments in the field of genomics have provided new and powerful insights into population structure and dynamics that are essential for the conservation of biological diversity. As a commercially highly valuable species, the yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) is intensely exploited throughout its distribution in tropical oceans around the world, and is currently classified as near threatened. However, conservation efforts for this species have so far been hampered by limited knowledge of its population structure, due to incongruent results of previous investigations. Here, we use whole-genome sequencing in concert with a draft genome assembly to decipher the global population structure of the yellowfin tuna, and to investigate its demographic history. We detect significant differentiation of Atlantic and Indo-Pacific yellowfin tuna populations as well as the possibility of a third diverged yellowfin tuna group in the Arabian Sea. We further observe evidence for past population expansion as well as asymmetric gene flow from the Indo-Pacific to the Atlantic. PMID:28419285

Population viability of the Snake River chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emlen, John M.

1995-01-01

In the presence of historical data, population viability models of intermediate complexity can be parameterized and utilized to project the consequences of various management actions for endangered species. A general stochastic population dynamics model with density feedback, age structure, and autocorrelated environmental fluctuations was constructed and parameterized for best fit over 36 years of spring chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) redd count data in five Idaho index streams. Simulations indicate that persistence of the Snake River spring chinook salmon population depends primarily on density-independent mortality. Improvement of rearing habitat, predator control, reduced fishing pressure, and improved dam passage all would alleviate density-independent mortality. The current value of the Ricker α should provide for a continuation of the status quo. A recovery of the population to 1957–1961 levels within 100 years would require an approximately 75% increase in survival and (or) fecundity. Manipulations of the Ricker β are likely to have little or no effect on persistence versus extinction, but considerable influence on population size.

Inflammation--a lifelong companion. Attempt at a non-analytical holistic view.

PubMed

Ferencík, M; Stvrtinová, V; Hulín, I; Novák, M

2007-01-01

Inflammation is a key component of the immune system. It has important functions in both defense and pathophysiological events maintaining the dynamic homeostasis of a host organism including its tissues, organs and individual cells. On the cellular level it is controlled by more than 400 currently known genes. Their polymorphisms and environmental conditions give rise to different genotypes in human population. Pro-inflammatory genotype, which dominates in the present population, may be advantageous in childhood but not in elderly people because it is characterized by an increased vulnerability to, and intensity of, inflammatory reactions. These reactions may be the possible reasons of chronic inflammatory diseases, especially in old age. Better understanding of complex molecular and cellular inflammatory mechanisms is indispensable for detailed knowledge of pathogenesis of many diseases, their prevention and directed drug therapy. Here we summarize the basic current knowledge on these mechanisms.

Numerical modeling of a sub Plinian eruption at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe: implications for pyroclastic density currents hazard assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esposti Ongaro, Tomaso; Neri, Augusto; Komorowski, Jean-Christophe

2013-04-01

We present three-dimensional numerical simulations of a sub-Plinian eruptive scenario at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe, aimed at assessing the capability of pyroclastic density currents to reach the inhabited regions on the volcano slopes, in case of the future resumption of the explosive activity. The selected eruptive scenario is similar to that hypothesized for the 1530 a.D. eruption, but several eruptive conditions have been analyzed to account for different behaviours of the eruptive column and percentages of collapse. Numerical results describe, in 3D and in time, the formation, instability and partial collapse of the eruptive column, and the simultaneous formation of a convective plume and several branched pyroclastic density currents. The proximal volcano morphology, characterized by the presence of ancient caldera rims and the remnants of the old edifice, controls the areal distribution of the collapsed material and the paths of channelized flows along the incised topography. The analysis of the 3D runs suggests that partial collapse scenarios produce steeply stratified pyroclastic density currents, which are strongly controlled by the topography and whose propagation is likely driven by the dynamics of the dense, basal layer. Although vertical grid size still does not allow the resolution of the dynamics of such concentrated flows, preliminary georeferenced maps of pyroclastic density currents' hazardous actions (temperature and dynamic pressure) provide interesting and useful information which can serve as a basis for elaborating a quantitative framework for the assessment of their impact on vulnerable infrastructures, networks, and population.

Incorporating diverse data and realistic complexity into demographic estimation procedures for sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tinker, M. Timothy; Doak, Daniel F.; Estes, James A.; Hatfield, Brian B.; Staedler, Michelle M.; Gross, Arthur

2006-01-01

Reliable information on historical and current population dynamics is central to understanding patterns of growth and decline in animal populations. We developed a maximum likelihood-based analysis to estimate spatial and temporal trends in age/sex-specific survival rates for the threatened southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis), using annual population censuses and the age structure of salvaged carcass collections. We evaluated a wide range of possible spatial and temporal effects and used model averaging to incorporate model uncertainty into the resulting estimates of key vital rates and their variances. We compared these results to current demographic parameters estimated in a telemetry-based study conducted between 2001 and 2004. These results show that survival has decreased substantially from the early 1990s to the present and is generally lowest in the north-central portion of the population's range. The greatest temporal decrease in survival was for adult females, and variation in the survival of this age/sex class is primarily responsible for regulating population growth and driving population trends. Our results can be used to focus future research on southern sea otters by highlighting the life history stages and mortality factors most relevant to conservation. More broadly, we have illustrated how the powerful and relatively straightforward tools of information-theoretic-based model fitting can be used to sort through and parameterize quite complex demographic modeling frameworks. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.

PubMed

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R

2015-08-01

Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

2015-08-01

Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

Preface of the "Symposium on Mathematical Models and Methods to investigate Heterogeneity in Cell and Cell Population Biology"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clairambault, Jean

2016-06-01

This session investigates hot topics related to mathematical representations of cell and cell population dynamics in biology and medicine, in particular, but not only, with applications to cancer. Methods in mathematical modelling and analysis, and in statistical inference using single-cell and cell population data, should contribute to focus this session on heterogeneity in cell populations. Among other methods are proposed: a) Intracellular protein dynamics and gene regulatory networks using ordinary/partial/delay differential equations (ODEs, PDEs, DDEs); b) Representation of cell population dynamics using agent-based models (ABMs) and/or PDEs; c) Hybrid models and multiscale models to integrate single-cell dynamics into cell population behaviour; d) Structured cell population dynamics and asymptotic evolution w.r.t. relevant traits; e) Heterogeneity in cancer cell populations: origin, evolution, phylogeny and methods of reconstruction; f) Drug resistance as an evolutionary phenotype: predicting and overcoming it in therapeutics; g) Theoretical therapeutic optimisation of combined drug treatments in cancer cell populations and in populations of other organisms, such as bacteria.

Tracking the Recent and late Pleistocene Azores front by the distribution of planktic foraminifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiebel, Ralf; Schmuker, Barbara; Alves, Mário; Hemleben, Christoph

2002-11-01

South of the Azores Islands, the population dynamics and sedimentation of planktic foraminifers are significantly influenced by the hydrography of the Azores Front Current System (AFCS). Planktic foraminifers collected from the water column during seasonal cruises across the Azores Front, record the temporal and spatial scale of hydrographic and faunal dynamics within this area. Surface sediment analysis reveals the presence of a large number of pteropod shells indicating preservation of aragonite and, therefore, little alteration of the calcitic foraminiferal tests. Consequently, most of the seasonal and spatial variability of the Azores Front is expected to be recorded by the planktic foraminiferal assemblages present within the surface sediment. In particular, Globorotalia scitula, a subsurface-dwelling species, decreases significantly in abundance to the south of the Azores Front, and shows fine-scale changes at the glacial/interglacial time scale. Enhanced faunal proportions of G. scitula in a sediment core that is located to the south of the modern Azores Current indicate a southward shift of the Azores Front Current System during the glacials and the presence of a transitional water mass at the Azores region.

How pattern formation in ring networks of excitatory and inhibitory spiking neurons depends on the input current regime.

PubMed

Kriener, Birgit; Helias, Moritz; Rotter, Stefan; Diesmann, Markus; Einevoll, Gaute T

2013-01-01

Pattern formation, i.e., the generation of an inhomogeneous spatial activity distribution in a dynamical system with translation invariant structure, is a well-studied phenomenon in neuronal network dynamics, specifically in neural field models. These are population models to describe the spatio-temporal dynamics of large groups of neurons in terms of macroscopic variables such as population firing rates. Though neural field models are often deduced from and equipped with biophysically meaningful properties, a direct mapping to simulations of individual spiking neuron populations is rarely considered. Neurons have a distinct identity defined by their action on their postsynaptic targets. In its simplest form they act either excitatorily or inhibitorily. When the distribution of neuron identities is assumed to be periodic, pattern formation can be observed, given the coupling strength is supracritical, i.e., larger than a critical weight. We find that this critical weight is strongly dependent on the characteristics of the neuronal input, i.e., depends on whether neurons are mean- or fluctuation driven, and different limits in linearizing the full non-linear system apply in order to assess stability. In particular, if neurons are mean-driven, the linearization has a very simple form and becomes independent of both the fixed point firing rate and the variance of the input current, while in the very strongly fluctuation-driven regime the fixed point rate, as well as the input mean and variance are important parameters in the determination of the critical weight. We demonstrate that interestingly even in "intermediate" regimes, when the system is technically fluctuation-driven, the simple linearization neglecting the variance of the input can yield the better prediction of the critical coupling strength. We moreover analyze the effects of structural randomness by rewiring individual synapses or redistributing weights, as well as coarse-graining on the formation of inhomogeneous activity patterns.

A genetically distinct hybrid zone occurs for two globally invasive mosquito fish species with striking phenotypic resemblance.

PubMed

Wilk, Rebecca J; Horth, Lisa

2016-12-01

Hybrid zones allow for the investigation of incipient speciation and related evolutionary processes of selection, gene flow, and migration. Interspecific dynamics, like competition, can impact the size, shape, and directional movement of species in hybrid zones. Hybrid zones contribute to a paradox for the biological species concept because interbreeding between species occurs while parental forms remain distinct. A long-standing zone of intergradation or introgression exists for eastern and western mosquito fish ( Gambusia holbrooki and G. affinis ) around Mobile Bay, AL. The region has been studied episodically, over decades, making it perfect for addressing temporal dynamics and for providing a deeper understanding of the genetics of these periodically reclassified fishes (as species or subspecies). We used six microsatellite markers to assess the current population structure and gene flow patterns across 19 populations of mosquito fish and then compared our results with historical data. Genetic evidence demonstrates that the current hybrid zone is located in a similar geographic region as the historical one, even after three decades. Hybrid fish, however, demonstrate relatively low heterozygosity and are genetically distinct from western and eastern mosquito fish populations. Fin ray counts, sometimes used to distinguish the two species from one another, demonstrate more eastern ( G. holbrooki) phenotype fish within the molecular genetic hybrid zone today. Mosquito fish are globally invasive, often found on the leading edge of flooded waters that they colonize, so the impact of hurricanes in the wake of climate change was also evaluated. An increase in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes in the hybrid region has occurred, and this point warrants further attention since hurricanes are known to move these aggressive, invasive species into novel territory. This work contributes to our classical understanding of hybrid zone temporal dynamics, refines our understanding of mosquito fish genetics in their native range, evaluates important genotype-phenotype relationships, and identifies a potential new impact of climate change.

How pattern formation in ring networks of excitatory and inhibitory spiking neurons depends on the input current regime

PubMed Central

Kriener, Birgit; Helias, Moritz; Rotter, Stefan; Diesmann, Markus; Einevoll, Gaute T.

2014-01-01

Pattern formation, i.e., the generation of an inhomogeneous spatial activity distribution in a dynamical system with translation invariant structure, is a well-studied phenomenon in neuronal network dynamics, specifically in neural field models. These are population models to describe the spatio-temporal dynamics of large groups of neurons in terms of macroscopic variables such as population firing rates. Though neural field models are often deduced from and equipped with biophysically meaningful properties, a direct mapping to simulations of individual spiking neuron populations is rarely considered. Neurons have a distinct identity defined by their action on their postsynaptic targets. In its simplest form they act either excitatorily or inhibitorily. When the distribution of neuron identities is assumed to be periodic, pattern formation can be observed, given the coupling strength is supracritical, i.e., larger than a critical weight. We find that this critical weight is strongly dependent on the characteristics of the neuronal input, i.e., depends on whether neurons are mean- or fluctuation driven, and different limits in linearizing the full non-linear system apply in order to assess stability. In particular, if neurons are mean-driven, the linearization has a very simple form and becomes independent of both the fixed point firing rate and the variance of the input current, while in the very strongly fluctuation-driven regime the fixed point rate, as well as the input mean and variance are important parameters in the determination of the critical weight. We demonstrate that interestingly even in “intermediate” regimes, when the system is technically fluctuation-driven, the simple linearization neglecting the variance of the input can yield the better prediction of the critical coupling strength. We moreover analyze the effects of structural randomness by rewiring individual synapses or redistributing weights, as well as coarse-graining on the formation of inhomogeneous activity patterns. PMID:24501591

Effects of dispersal on total biomass in a patchy, heterogeneous system: Analysis and experiment.

PubMed

Zhang, Bo; Liu, Xin; DeAngelis, D L; Ni, Wei-Ming; Wang, G Geoff

2015-06-01

An intriguing recent result from mathematics is that a population diffusing at an intermediate rate in an environment in which resources vary spatially will reach a higher total equilibrium biomass than the population in an environment in which the same total resources are distributed homogeneously. We extended the current mathematical theory to apply to logistic growth and also showed that the result applies to patchy systems with dispersal among patches, both for continuous and discrete time. This allowed us to make specific predictions, through simulations, concerning the biomass dynamics, which were verified by a laboratory experiment. The experiment was a study of biomass growth of duckweed (Lemna minor Linn.), where the resources (nutrients added to water) were distributed homogeneously among a discrete series of water-filled containers in one treatment, and distributed heterogeneously in another treatment. The experimental results showed that total biomass peaked at an intermediate, relatively low, diffusion rate, higher than the total carrying capacity of the system and agreeing with the simulation model. The implications of the experiment to dynamics of source, sink, and pseudo-sink dynamics are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Global Rice Watch: Spatial-temporal dynamics, driving factors, and impacts of paddy rice agriculture in the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, X.; Dong, J.; Zhang, G.; Xin, F.; Li, X.

2017-12-01

Paddy rice croplands account for more than 12% of the global cropland areas, and provide food to feed more than 50% of the world population. Spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of paddy rice croplands have changed remarkably in the past decades, driven by growing human population and their changing diet structure, land use (e.g., urbanization, industrialization), climate, markets, and technologies. In this presentation, we will provide a comprehensive review of our current knowledge on (1) the spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of paddy rice croplands from agricultural statistics data and remote sensing approaches; (2) major driving factors for the observed changes in paddy rice areas, including social, economic, climate, land use, markets, crop breeding technology, and farming technology; and (3) major impacts on atmospheric methane concentration, land surface temperature, water resources and use, and so on. We will highlight the results from a few case studies in China and monsoon Asia. We will also call for a global synthesis analysis of paddy rice agriculture, and invite researchers to join the effort to write and edit a book that provides comprehensive and updated knowledge on paddy rice agriculture.

Mixing times towards demographic equilibrium in insect populations with temperature variable age structures.

PubMed

Damos, Petros

2015-08-01

In this study, we use entropy related mixing rate modules to measure the effects of temperature on insect population stability and demographic breakdown. The uncertainty in the age of the mother of a randomly chosen newborn, and how it is moved after a finite act of time steps, is modeled using a stochastic transformation of the Leslie matrix. Age classes are represented as a cycle graph and its transitions towards the stable age distribution are brought forth as an exact Markov chain. The dynamics of divergence, from a non equilibrium state towards equilibrium, are evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy. Moreover, Kullback-Leibler distance is applied as information-theoretic measure to estimate exact mixing times of age transitions probabilities towards equilibrium. Using empirically data, we show that on the initial conditions and simulated projection's trough time, that population entropy can effectively be applied to detect demographic variability towards equilibrium under different temperature conditions. Changes in entropy are correlated with the fluctuations of the insect population decay rates (i.e. demographic stability towards equilibrium). Moreover, shorter mixing times are directly linked to lower entropy rates and vice versa. This may be linked to the properties of the insect model system, which in contrast to warm blooded animals has the ability to greatly change its metabolic and demographic rates. Moreover, population entropy and the related distance measures that are applied, provide a means to measure these rates. The current results and model projections provide clear biological evidence why dynamic population entropy may be useful to measure population stability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Population dynamics of Aphis gossypii Glover and in sole and intercropping systems of cotton and cowpea.

PubMed

Fernandes, Francisco S; Godoy, Wesley A C; Ramalho, Francisco S; Garcia, Adriano G; Santos, Bárbara D B; Malaquias, José B

2018-01-01

Population dynamics of aphids have been studied in sole and intercropping systems. These studies have required the use of more precise analytical tools in order to better understand patterns in quantitative data. Mathematical models are among the most important tools to explain the dynamics of insect populations. This study investigated the population dynamics of aphids Aphis gossypii and Aphis craccivora over time, using mathematical models composed of a set of differential equations as a helpful analytical tool to understand the population dynamics of aphids in arrangements of cotton and cowpea. The treatments were sole cotton, sole cowpea, and three arrangements of cotton intercropped with cowpea (t1, t2 and t3). The plants were infested with two aphid species and were evaluated at 7, 14, 28, 35, 42, and 49 days after the infestations. Mathematical models were used to fit the population dynamics of two aphid species. There were good fits for aphid dynamics by mathematical model over time. The highest population peak of both species A. gossypii and A. craccivora was found in the sole crops, and the lowest population peak was found in crop system t2. These results are important for integrated management programs of aphids in cotton and cowpea.

The Thermal Ion Dynamics Experiment and Plasma Source Instrument

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, T. E.; Chappell, C. R.; Chandler, M. O.; Fields, S. A.; Pollock, C. J.; Reasoner, D. L.; Young, D. T.; Burch, J. L.; Eaker, N.; Waite, J. H., Jr.;

Dynamical Evolution Induced by Planet Nine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batygin, Konstantin; Morbidelli, Alessandro

2017-12-01

The observational census of trans-Neptunian objects with semimajor axes greater than ˜ 250 {au} exhibits unexpected orbital structure that is most readily attributed to gravitational perturbations induced by a yet-undetected, massive planet. Although the capacity of this planet to (I) reproduce the observed clustering of distant orbits in physical space, (II) facilitate the dynamical detachment of their perihelia from Neptune, and (III) excite a population of long-period centaurs to extreme inclinations is well-established through numerical experiments, a coherent theoretical description of the dynamical mechanisms responsible for these effects remains elusive. In this work, we characterize the dynamical processes at play from semi-analytic grounds. We begin by considering a purely secular model of orbital evolution induced by Planet Nine and show that it is at odds with the ensuing stability of distant objects. Instead, the long-term survival of the clustered population of long-period Kuiper Belt objects (KBOs) is enabled by a web of mean-motion resonances driven by Planet Nine. Then, by taking a compact-form approach to perturbation theory, we show that it is the secular dynamics embedded within these resonances that regulate the orbital confinement and perihelion detachment of distant KBOs. Finally, we demonstrate that the onset of large-amplitude oscillations of the orbital inclinations is accomplished through the capture of low-inclination objects into a high-order secular resonance, and we identify the specific harmonic that drives the evolution. In light of the developed qualitative understanding of the governing dynamics, we offer an updated interpretation of the current observational data set within the broader theoretical framework of the Planet Nine hypothesis.

Comparing models of Red Knot population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.

2015-01-01

Predictive population modeling contributes to our basic scientific understanding of population dynamics, but can also inform management decisions by evaluating alternative actions in virtual environments. Quantitative models mathematically reflect scientific hypotheses about how a system functions. In Delaware Bay, mid-Atlantic Coast, USA, to more effectively manage horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) harvests and protect Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) populations, models are used to compare harvest actions and predict the impacts on crab and knot populations. Management has been chiefly driven by the core hypothesis that horseshoe crab egg abundance governs the survival and reproduction of migrating Red Knots that stopover in the Bay during spring migration. However, recently, hypotheses proposing that knot dynamics are governed by cyclical lemming dynamics garnered some support in data analyses. In this paper, I present alternative models of Red Knot population dynamics to reflect alternative hypotheses. Using 2 models with different lemming population cycle lengths and 2 models with different horseshoe crab effects, I project the knot population into the future under environmental stochasticity and parametric uncertainty with each model. I then compare each model's predictions to 10 yr of population monitoring from Delaware Bay. Using Bayes' theorem and model weight updating, models can accrue weight or support for one or another hypothesis of population dynamics. With 4 models of Red Knot population dynamics and only 10 yr of data, no hypothesis clearly predicted population count data better than another. The collapsed lemming cycle model performed best, accruing ~35% of the model weight, followed closely by the horseshoe crab egg abundance model, which accrued ~30% of the weight. The models that predicted no decline or stable populations (i.e. the 4-yr lemming cycle model and the weak horseshoe crab effect model) were the most weakly supported.

Considering transient population dynamics in the conservation of slow life-history species: An application to the sandhill crane

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.

2016-01-01

The importance of transient dynamics of structured populations is increasingly recognized in ecology, yet these implications are not largely considered in conservation practices. We investigate transient and long-term population dynamics to demonstrate the process and utility of incorporating transient dynamics into conservation research and to better understand the population management of slow life-history species; these species can be theoretically highly sensitive to short- and long-term transient effects. We are specifically interested in the effects of anthropogenic removal of individuals from populations, such as caused by harvest, poaching, translocation, or incidental take. We use the sandhill crane (Grus canadensis) as an exemplar species; it is long-lived, has low reproduction, late maturity, and multiple populations are subject to sport harvest. We found sandhill cranes to have extremely high potential, but low likelihood for transient dynamics, even when the population is being harvested. The typically low population growth rate of slow life-history species appears to buffer against many perturbations causing large transient effects. Transient dynamics will dominate population trajectories of these species when stage structures are highly biased towards the younger and non-reproducing individuals, a situation that may be rare in established populations of long-lived animals. However, short-term transient population growth can be highly sensitive to vital rates that are relatively insensitive under equilibrium, suggesting that stage structure should be known if perturbation analysis is used to identify effective conservation strategies. For populations of slow life-history species that are not prone to large perturbations to their most productive individuals, population growth may be approximated by equilibrium dynamics.

How Ebola impacts social dynamics in gorillas: a multistate modelling approach.

PubMed

Genton, Céline; Pierre, Amandine; Cristescu, Romane; Lévréro, Florence; Gatti, Sylvain; Pierre, Jean-Sébastien; Ménard, Nelly; Le Gouar, Pascaline

2015-01-01

Emerging infectious diseases can induce rapid changes in population dynamics and threaten population persistence. In socially structured populations, the transfers of individuals between social units, for example, from breeding groups to non-breeding groups, shape population dynamics. We suggest that diseases may affect these crucial transfers. We aimed to determine how disturbance by an emerging disease affects demographic rates of gorillas, especially transfer rates within populations and immigration rates into populations. We compared social dynamics and key demographic parameters in a gorilla population affected by Ebola using a long-term observation data set including pre-, during and post-outbreak periods. We also studied a population of undetermined epidemiological status in order to assess whether this population was affected by the disease. We developed a multistate model that can handle transition between social units while optimizing the number of states. During the Ebola outbreak, social dynamics displayed increased transfers from a breeding to a non-breeding status for both males and females. Six years after the outbreak, demographic and most of social dynamics parameters had returned to their initial rates, suggesting a certain resilience in the response to disruption. The formation of breeding groups increased just after Ebola, indicating that environmental conditions were still attractive. However, population recovery was likely delayed because compensatory immigration was probably impeded by the potential impact of Ebola in the surrounding areas. The population of undetermined epidemiological status behaved similarly to the other population before Ebola. Our results highlight the need to integrate social dynamics in host-population demographic models to better understand the role of social structure in the sensitivity and the response to disease disturbances. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Bioconvection as a Consequence of Bio-Stratification in Bacterial Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shoup, Daniel; Strickland, Benjamin; Hoeger, Kentaro; Ursell, Tristan

The collective motion of bacterial populations in solution can generate convective currents that significantly alter fluid motion and material transport. Known as bioconvection, this process is highly influenced by stimuli such as nutrients and toxins that can attract or repel bacteria via chemotaxis. Despite its prevalence in natural environments, ranging from the ocean floor to fluid in the human gut, this dynamic process and the physical and biological factors that influence it remain largely unexplored. To close this gap, we measure and analyze spontaneous bioconvection arising from the collective movement of dense populations of bacteria, such as Escherichia coli and Bacillus subtilis. By combining microscopy and image analysis, we find that modulations of the fluid volume geometry, erasure of the air-liquid interface, chemical perturbations like nutrients or antibiotics all alter the development of these dense bacterial masses and in turn the bio-convective currents and corresponding transport phenomena they generate. Our work suggests biophysical principles of material and organismal transport that apply to a broad range of systems where organisms can sense gradients and move within their environments.

Models of Eucalypt phenology predict bat population flux.

PubMed

Giles, John R; Plowright, Raina K; Eby, Peggy; Peel, Alison J; McCallum, Hamish

2016-10-01

Fruit bats (Pteropodidae) have received increased attention after the recent emergence of notable viral pathogens of bat origin. Their vagility hinders data collection on abundance and distribution, which constrains modeling efforts and our understanding of bat ecology, viral dynamics, and spillover. We addressed this knowledge gap with models and data on the occurrence and abundance of nectarivorous fruit bat populations at 3 day roosts in southeast Queensland. We used environmental drivers of nectar production as predictors and explored relationships between bat abundance and virus spillover. Specifically, we developed several novel modeling tools motivated by complexities of fruit bat foraging ecology, including: (1) a dataset of spatial variables comprising Eucalypt-focused vegetation indices, cumulative precipitation, and temperature anomaly; (2) an algorithm that associated bat population response with spatial covariates in a spatially and temporally relevant way given our current understanding of bat foraging behavior; and (3) a thorough statistical learning approach to finding optimal covariate combinations. We identified covariates that classify fruit bat occupancy at each of our three study roosts with 86-93% accuracy. Negative binomial models explained 43-53% of the variation in observed abundance across roosts. Our models suggest that spatiotemporal heterogeneity in Eucalypt-based food resources could drive at least 50% of bat population behavior at the landscape scale. We found that 13 spillover events were observed within the foraging range of our study roosts, and they occurred during times when models predicted low population abundance. Our results suggest that, in southeast Queensland, spillover may not be driven by large aggregations of fruit bats attracted by nectar-based resources, but rather by behavior of smaller resident subpopulations. Our models and data integrated remote sensing and statistical learning to make inferences on bat ecology and disease dynamics. This work provides a foundation for further studies on landscape-scale population movement and spatiotemporal disease dynamics.

Ranking landscape development scenarios affecting natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) population dynamics in Central Poland.

PubMed

Franz, Kamila W; Romanowski, Jerzy; Johst, Karin; Grimm, Volker

2013-01-01

When data are limited it is difficult for conservation managers to assess alternative management scenarios and make decisions. The natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) is declining at the edges of its distribution range in Europe and little is known about its current distribution and abundance in Poland. Although different landscape management plans for central Poland exist, it is unclear to what extent they impact this species. Based on these plans, we investigated how four alternative landscape development scenarios would affect the total carrying capacity and population dynamics of the natterjack toad. To facilitate decision-making, we first ranked the scenarios according to their total carrying capacity. We used the software RAMAS GIS to determine the size and location of habitat patches in the landscape. The estimated carrying capacities were very similar for each scenario, and clear ranking was not possible. Only the reforestation scenario showed a marked loss in carrying capacity. We therefore simulated metapopulation dynamics with RAMAS taking into account dynamical processes such as reproduction and dispersal and ranked the scenarios according to the resulting species abundance. In this case, we could clearly rank the development scenarios. We identified road mortality of adults as a key process governing the dynamics and separating the different scenarios. The renaturalisation scenario clearly ranked highest due to its decreased road mortality. Taken together our results suggest that road infrastructure development might be much more important for natterjack toad conservation than changes in the amount of habitat in the semi-natural river valley. We gained these insights by considering both the resulting metapopulation structure and dynamics in the form of a PVA. We conclude that the consideration of dynamic processes in amphibian conservation management may be indispensable for ranking management scenarios.

Very long transients, irregular firing, and chaotic dynamics in networks of randomly connected inhibitory integrate-and-fire neurons.

PubMed

Zillmer, Rüdiger; Brunel, Nicolas; Hansel, David

2009-03-01

We present results of an extensive numerical study of the dynamics of networks of integrate-and-fire neurons connected randomly through inhibitory interactions. We first consider delayed interactions with infinitely fast rise and decay. Depending on the parameters, the network displays transients which are short or exponentially long in the network size. At the end of these transients, the dynamics settle on a periodic attractor. If the number of connections per neuron is large ( approximately 1000) , this attractor is a cluster state with a short period. In contrast, if the number of connections per neuron is small ( approximately 100) , the attractor has complex dynamics and very long period. During the long transients the neurons fire in a highly irregular manner. They can be viewed as quasistationary states in which, depending on the coupling strength, the pattern of activity is asynchronous or displays population oscillations. In the first case, the average firing rates and the variability of the single-neuron activity are well described by a mean-field theory valid in the thermodynamic limit. Bifurcations of the long transient dynamics from asynchronous to synchronous activity are also well predicted by this theory. The transient dynamics display features reminiscent of stable chaos. In particular, despite being linearly stable, the trajectories of the transient dynamics are destabilized by finite perturbations as small as O(1/N) . We further show that stable chaos is also observed for postsynaptic currents with finite decay time. However, we report in this type of network that chaotic dynamics characterized by positive Lyapunov exponents can also be observed. We show in fact that chaos occurs when the decay time of the synaptic currents is long compared to the synaptic delay, provided that the network is sufficiently large.

The dynamics of city formation*

PubMed Central

Henderson, J. Vernon; Venables, Anthony J.

2013-01-01

This paper examines city formation in a country whose urban population is growing steadily over time, with new cities required to accommodate this growth. In contrast to most of the literature there is immobility of housing and urban infrastructure, and investment in these assets is taken on the basis of forward-looking behavior. In the presence of these fixed assets cities form sequentially, without the population swings in existing cities that arise in current models, but with swings in house rents. Equilibrium city size, absent government, may be larger or smaller than is efficient, depending on how urban externalities vary with population. Efficient formation of cities with internalization of externalities involves local government intervention and borrowing to finance development. The paper explores the institutions required for successful local government intervention. PMID:25089087

Metabolic heterogeneity in clonal microbial populations.

PubMed

Takhaveev, Vakil; Heinemann, Matthias

2018-02-21

In the past decades, numerous instances of phenotypic diversity were observed in clonal microbial populations, particularly, on the gene expression level. Much less is, however, known about phenotypic differences that occur on the level of metabolism. This is likely explained by the fact that experimental tools probing metabolism of single cells are still at an early stage of development. Here, we review recent exciting discoveries that point out different causes for metabolic heterogeneity within clonal microbial populations. These causes range from ecological factors and cell-inherent dynamics in constant environments to molecular noise in gene expression that propagates into metabolism. Furthermore, we provide an overview of current methods to quantify the levels of metabolites and biomass components in single cells. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Early warning signals detect critical impacts of experimental warming.

PubMed

Jarvis, Lauren; McCann, Kevin; Tunney, Tyler; Gellner, Gabriel; Fryxell, John M

2016-09-01

Earth's surface temperatures are projected to increase by ~1-4°C over the next century, threatening the future of global biodiversity and ecosystem stability. While this has fueled major progress in the field of physiological trait responses to warming, it is currently unclear whether routine population monitoring data can be used to predict temperature-induced population collapse. Here, we integrate trait performance theory with that of critical tipping points to test whether early warning signals can be reliably used to anticipate thermally induced extinction events. We find that a model parameterized by experimental growth rates exhibits critical slowing down in the vicinity of an experimentally tested critical threshold, suggesting that dynamical early warning signals may be useful in detecting the potentially precipitous onset of population collapse due to global climate change.

The Structure and Kinematics of Little Blue Spheroid Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moffett, Amanda J.; Phillipps, Steven; Robotham, Aaron; Driver, Simon; Bremer, Malcolm; GAMA survey team, SAMI survey team

2018-01-01

A population of blue, morphologically early-type galaxies, dubbed "Little Blue Spheroids" (LBSs), has been identified as a significant contributor to the low redshift galaxy population in the GAMA survey. Using deep, high-resolution optical imaging from KiDS and the new Bayesian, two-dimensional galaxy profile modelling code PROFIT, we examine the detailed structural characteristics of LBSs, including low surface brightness components not detected in previous SDSS imaging. We find that these LBS galaxies combine features typical of early-type and late-type populations, with structural properties similar to other low-mass early types and star formation rates similar to low-mass late types. We further consider the environments and SAMI-derived IFU kinematics of LBSs in order to investigate the conditions of their formation and the current state of their dynamical evolution.

Stochastic gain in finite populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Röhl, Torsten; Traulsen, Arne; Claussen, Jens Christian; Schuster, Heinz Georg

2008-08-01

Flexible learning rates can lead to increased payoffs under the influence of noise. In a previous paper [Traulsen , Phys. Rev. Lett. 93, 028701 (2004)], we have demonstrated this effect based on a replicator dynamics model which is subject to external noise. Here, we utilize recent advances on finite population dynamics and their connection to the replicator equation to extend our findings and demonstrate the stochastic gain effect in finite population systems. Finite population dynamics is inherently stochastic, depending on the population size and the intensity of selection, which measures the balance between the deterministic and the stochastic parts of the dynamics. This internal noise can be exploited by a population using an appropriate microscopic update process, even if learning rates are constant.

How Does a Divided Population Respond to Change?

PubMed

Qubbaj, Murad R; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Aggarwal, Rimjhim M; Anderies, John M

2015-01-01

Most studies on the response of socioeconomic systems to a sudden shift focus on long-term equilibria or end points. Such narrow focus forgoes many valuable insights. Here we examine the transient dynamics of regime shift on a divided population, exemplified by societies divided ideologically, politically, economically, or technologically. Replicator dynamics is used to investigate the complex transient dynamics of the population response. Though simple, our modeling approach exhibits a surprisingly rich and diverse array of dynamics. Our results highlight the critical roles played by diversity in strategies and the magnitude of the shift. Importantly, it allows for a variety of strategies to arise organically as an integral part of the transient dynamics--as opposed to an independent process--of population response to a regime shift, providing a link between the population's past and future diversity patterns. Several combinations of different populations' strategy distributions and shifts were systematically investigated. Such rich dynamics highlight the challenges of anticipating the response of a divided population to a change. The findings in this paper can potentially improve our understanding of a wide range of socio-ecological and technological transitions.

Further data on removal and repopulation of the breeding birds in a spruce-fir forest community

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hensley, M.M.; Cope, J.B.

1951-01-01

During June and July of 1950 the writers were engaged in a study of bird populations in northern Maine in conjunction with investigations to determine the effectiveness of the breeding bird population as a controlling agent of the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana. The field work was started in 1949 and the current project was a continuation. The entomological phase of the study during both seasons was conducted under the supervision of Philip B. Dowden and V. M. Carolin of the Bureau of Entomology and Plant Quarantine; the initial bird population study was made by John W. Aldrich and Robert E. Stewart of the Fish and Wildlife Service (See page 471 of this issue of 'The Auk').Many data were accumulated concerning bird population dynamics during the initial study. To compare the results of the two seasons and to present other significant facts, additional data are presented here.

Model structure of the stream salmonid simulator (S3)—A dynamic model for simulating growth, movement, and survival of juvenile salmonids

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Russell W.; Plumb, John M.; Jones, Edward C.; Som, Nicholas A.; Hetrick, Nicholas J.; Hardy, Thomas B.

2018-04-06

Fisheries and water managers often use population models to aid in understanding the effect of alternative water management or restoration actions on anadromous fish populations. We developed the Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) to help resource managers evaluate the effect of management alternatives on juvenile salmonid populations. S3 is a deterministic stage-structured population model that tracks daily growth, movement, and survival of juvenile salmon. A key theme of the model is that river flow affects habitat availability and capacity, which in turn drives density dependent population dynamics. To explicitly link population dynamics to habitat quality and quantity, the river environment is constructed as a one-dimensional series of linked habitat units, each of which has an associated daily time series of discharge, water temperature, and usable habitat area or carrying capacity. The physical characteristics of each habitat unit and the number of fish occupying each unit, in turn, drive survival and growth within each habitat unit and movement of fish among habitat units.The purpose of this report is to outline the underlying general structure of the S3 model that is common among different applications of the model. We have developed applications of the S3 model for juvenile fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the lower Klamath River. Thus, this report is a companion to current application of the S3 model to the Trinity River (in review). The general S3 model structure provides a biological and physical framework for the salmonid freshwater life cycle. This framework captures important demographics of juvenile salmonids aimed at translating management alternatives into simulated population responses. Although the S3 model is built on this common framework, the model has been constructed to allow much flexibility in application of the model to specific river systems. The ability for practitioners to include system-specific information for the physical stream structure, survival, growth, and movement processes ensures that simulations provide results that are relevant to the questions asked about the population under study.

Supply-demand 3D dynamic model in water resources evaluation: taking Lebanon as an example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Hong; Hou, Zhimin

2017-05-01

In this paper, supply-demand 3D dynamic model is adopted to create a measurement of a region’s capacity to provide available water to meet the needs of its population. First of all, we draw a diagram between supply and demand. Then taking the main dynamic factors into account, we establish an index to evaluate the balance of supply and demand. The three dimension vector reflects the scarcity of industrial, agricultural and residential water. Lebanon is chosen as the object of case study, and we do quantitative analysis of its current situation. After data collecting and processing, we calculate the 3D vector in 2012, which reveals that agriculture is susceptible to water scarcity. Water resources of Lebanon are “physical rich” but “economic scarcity” according to the correlation chart and other statistical analysis.

Who and what is a "population"? Historical debates, current controversies, and implications for understanding "population health" and rectifying health inequities.

PubMed

Krieger, Nancy

2012-12-01

The idea of "population" is core to the population sciences but is rarely defined except in statistical terms. Yet who and what defines and makes a population has everything to do with whether population means are meaningful or meaningless, with profound implications for work on population health and health inequities. In this article, I review the current conventional definitions of, and historical debates over, the meaning(s) of "population," trace back the contemporary emphasis on populations as statistical rather than substantive entities to Adolphe Quetelet's powerful astronomical metaphor, conceived in the 1830s, of l'homme moyen (the average man), and argue for an alternative definition of populations as relational beings. As informed by the ecosocial theory of disease distribution, I then analyze several case examples to explore the utility of critical population-informed thinking for research, knowledge, and policy involving population health and health inequities. Four propositions emerge: (1) the meaningfulness of means depends on how meaningfully the populations are defined in relation to the inherent intrinsic and extrinsic dynamic generative relationships by which they are constituted; (2) structured chance drives population distributions of health and entails conceptualizing health and disease, including biomarkers, as embodied phenotype and health inequities as historically contingent; (3) persons included in population health research are study participants, and the casual equation of this term with "study population" should be avoided; and (4) the conventional cleavage of "internal validity" and "generalizability" is misleading, since a meaningful choice of study participants must be in relation to the range of exposures experienced (or not) in the real-world societies, that is, meaningful populations, of which they are a part. To improve conceptual clarity, causal inference, and action to promote health equity, population sciences need to expand and deepen their theorizing about who and what makes populations and their means. © 2012 Milbank Memorial Fund.

Dynamic equilibrium of heterogeneous and interconvertible multipotent hematopoietic cell subsets

PubMed Central

Weston, Wendy; Zayas, Jennifer; Perez, Ruben; George, John; Jurecic, Roland

2014-01-01

Populations of hematopoietic stem cells and progenitors are quite heterogeneous and consist of multiple cell subsets with distinct phenotypic and functional characteristics. Some of these subsets also appear to be interconvertible and oscillate between functionally distinct states. The multipotent hematopoietic cell line EML has emerged as a unique model to study the heterogeneity and interconvertibility of multipotent hematopoietic cells. Here we describe extensive phenotypic and functional heterogeneity of EML cells which stems from the coexistence of multiple cell subsets. Each of these subsets is phenotypically and functionally heterogeneous, and displays distinct multilineage differentiation potential, cell cycle profile, proliferation kinetics, and expression pattern of HSC markers and some of the key lineage-associated transcription factors. Analysis of their maintenance revealed that on a population level all EML cell subsets exhibit cell-autonomous interconvertible properties, with the capacity to generate all other subsets and re-establish complete parental EML cell population. Moreover, all EML cell subsets generated during multiple cell generations maintain their distinct phenotypic and functional signatures and interconvertible properties. The model of EML cell line suggests that interconvertible multipotent hematopoietic cell subsets coexist in a homeostatically maintained dynamic equilibrium which is regulated by currently unknown cell-intrinsic mechanisms. PMID:24903657

Dynamic equilibrium of heterogeneous and interconvertible multipotent hematopoietic cell subsets.

PubMed

Weston, Wendy; Zayas, Jennifer; Perez, Ruben; George, John; Jurecic, Roland

2014-06-06

Populations of hematopoietic stem cells and progenitors are quite heterogeneous and consist of multiple cell subsets with distinct phenotypic and functional characteristics. Some of these subsets also appear to be interconvertible and oscillate between functionally distinct states. The multipotent hematopoietic cell line EML has emerged as a unique model to study the heterogeneity and interconvertibility of multipotent hematopoietic cells. Here we describe extensive phenotypic and functional heterogeneity of EML cells which stems from the coexistence of multiple cell subsets. Each of these subsets is phenotypically and functionally heterogeneous, and displays distinct multilineage differentiation potential, cell cycle profile, proliferation kinetics, and expression pattern of HSC markers and some of the key lineage-associated transcription factors. Analysis of their maintenance revealed that on a population level all EML cell subsets exhibit cell-autonomous interconvertible properties, with the capacity to generate all other subsets and re-establish complete parental EML cell population. Moreover, all EML cell subsets generated during multiple cell generations maintain their distinct phenotypic and functional signatures and interconvertible properties. The model of EML cell line suggests that interconvertible multipotent hematopoietic cell subsets coexist in a homeostatically maintained dynamic equilibrium which is regulated by currently unknown cell-intrinsic mechanisms.

Coordinated dynamic encoding in the retina using opposing forms of plasticity

PubMed Central

Kastner, David B.; Baccus, Stephen A.

2011-01-01

The range of natural inputs encoded by a neuron often exceeds its dynamic range. To overcome this limitation, neural populations divide their inputs among different cell classes, as with rod and cone photoreceptors, and adapt by shifting their dynamic range. We report that the dynamic behavior of retinal ganglion cells in salamanders, mice, and rabbits is divided into two opposing forms of short-term plasticity in different cell classes. One population of cells exhibited sensitization—a persistent elevated sensitivity following a strong stimulus. This novel dynamic behavior compensates for the information loss caused by the known process of adaptation occurring in a separate cell population. The two populations divide the dynamic range of inputs, with sensitizing cells encoding weak signals, and adapting cells encoding strong signals. In the two populations, the linear, threshold and adaptive properties are linked to preserve responsiveness when stimulus statistics change, with one population maintaining the ability to respond when the other fails. PMID:21909086

TYCHO: Simulating Exoplanets Within Stellar Clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glaser, Joseph Paul; Thornton, Jonathan; Geller, Aaron M.; McMillan, Stephen

2018-01-01

Recent surveys exploring nearby open clusters have yielded noticeable differences in the planetary population from that seen in the Field. This is surprising, as the two should be indistinguishable given currently accepted theories on how a majority of stars form within the Galaxy. Currently, the existence of this apparent deficit is not fully understood. While detection bias in previous observational surveys certainly contributes to this issue, the dynamical effects of star-star scattering must also be taken into account. However, this effect can only be investigated via computational simulations and current solutions of the multi-scale N-body problem are limited and drastically simplified.To remedy this, we aim to create a physically complete computational solution to explore the role of stellar close encounters and interplanetary interactions in producing the observed exoplanet populations for both open cluster stars and Field stars. To achieve this, TYCHO employs a variety of different computational techniques, including: multiple n-body integration methods; close-encounter handling; Monte Carlo scattering experiments; and a variety of observationally-backed initial condition generators. Herein, we discuss the current state of the code's implantation within the AMUSE framework and its applications towards present exoplanet surveys.

Population variation and individual maximum size in two leech populations: energy extraction from cannibalism or niche widening?

PubMed

Persson, Lennart; Elliott, J Malcolm

2013-05-01

The theory of cannibal dynamics predicts a link between population dynamics and individual life history. In particular, increased individual growth has, in both modeling and empirical studies, been shown to result from a destabilization of population dynamics. We used data from a long-term study of the dynamics of two leech (Erpobdella octoculata) populations to test the hypothesis that maximum size should be higher in a cycling population; one of the study populations exhibited a delayed feedback cycle while the other population showed no sign of cyclicity. A hump-shaped relationship between individual mass of 1-year-old leeches and offspring density the previous year was present in both populations. As predicted from the theory, the maximum mass of individuals was much larger in the fluctuating population. In contrast to predictions, the higher growth rate was not related to energy extraction from cannibalism. Instead, the higher individual mass is suggested to be due to increased availability of resources due to a niche widening with increased individual body mass. The larger individual mass in the fluctuating population was related to a stronger correlation between the densities of 1-year-old individuals and 2-year-old individuals the following year in this population. Although cannibalism was the major mechanism regulating population dynamics, its importance was negligible in terms of providing cannibalizing individuals with energy subsequently increasing their fecundity. Instead, the study identifies a need for theoretical and empirical studies on the largely unstudied interplay between ontogenetic niche shifts and cannibalistic population dynamics.

Inverse Problems for Nonlinear Delay Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-15

population dynamics. We consider the delay between birth and adulthood for neonate pea aphids and present a mathematical model that treats this delay as...which there is currently no known cure. For HIV, the core of the virus is composed of single-stranded viral RNA and protein components. As depicted in...at a CD4 receptor site and the viral core is injected into the cell. Once inside, the protein components enable transcription and integration of the

Fires. A Joint Publication for U.S. Artillery Professionals. November - December 2009

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-11-01

Soldiers. This article examines the dynamic that the Generation Y or Millennial population is having on current training practices and whether or not...around or over their Millennial children in everything they do, according to research conducted in 2008 by J. Newman, author of Leading generation Y ... Millennial friendly? By COL James Lackey, Gene Kamena and CPT Robert B. Lackey 41 Intermediate Level Education: helping to combat field artillery

The finite state projection approach to analyze dynamics of heterogeneous populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Rob; Munsky, Brian

2017-06-01

Population modeling aims to capture and predict the dynamics of cell populations in constant or fluctuating environments. At the elementary level, population growth proceeds through sequential divisions of individual cells. Due to stochastic effects, populations of cells are inherently heterogeneous in phenotype, and some phenotypic variables have an effect on division or survival rates, as can be seen in partial drug resistance. Therefore, when modeling population dynamics where the control of growth and division is phenotype dependent, the corresponding model must take account of the underlying cellular heterogeneity. The finite state projection (FSP) approach has often been used to analyze the statistics of independent cells. Here, we extend the FSP analysis to explore the coupling of cell dynamics and biomolecule dynamics within a population. This extension allows a general framework with which to model the state occupations of a heterogeneous, isogenic population of dividing and expiring cells. The method is demonstrated with a simple model of cell-cycle progression, which we use to explore possible dynamics of drug resistance phenotypes in dividing cells. We use this method to show how stochastic single-cell behaviors affect population level efficacy of drug treatments, and we illustrate how slight modifications to treatment regimens may have dramatic effects on drug efficacy.

A Mechanism for Graded, Dynamically Routable Current Propagation in Pulse-Gated Synfire Chains and Implications for Information Coding

PubMed Central

Sornborger, Andrew T.; Wang, Zhuo; Tao, Louis

2015-01-01

Neural oscillations can enhance feature recognition [1], modulate interactions between neurons [2], and improve learning and memory [3]. Numerical studies have shown that coherent spiking can give rise to windows in time during which information transfer can be enhanced in neuronal networks [4–6]. Unanswered questions are: 1) What is the transfer mechanism? And 2) how well can a transfer be executed? Here, we present a pulse-based mechanism by which a graded current amplitude may be exactly propagated from one neuronal population to another. The mechanism relies on the downstream gating of mean synaptic current amplitude from one population of neurons to another via a pulse. Because transfer is pulse-based, information may be dynamically routed through a neural circuit with fixed connectivity. We demonstrate the transfer mechanism in a realistic network of spiking neurons and show that it is robust to noise in the form of pulse timing inaccuracies, random synaptic strengths and finite size effects. We also show that the mechanism is structurally robust in that it may be implemented using biologically realistic pulses. The transfer mechanism may be used as a building block for fast, complex information processing in neural circuits. We show that the mechanism naturally leads to a framework wherein neural information coding and processing can be considered as a product of linear maps under the active control of a pulse generator. Distinct control and processing components combine to form the basis for the binding, propagation, and processing of dynamically routed information within neural pathways. Using our framework, we construct example neural circuits to 1) maintain a short-term memory, 2) compute time-windowed Fourier transforms, and 3) perform spatial rotations. We postulate that such circuits, with automatic and stereotyped control and processing of information, are the neural correlates of Crick and Koch’s zombie modes. PMID:26227067

Global change and the distributional dynamics of migratory bird populations wintering in Central America.

PubMed

La Sorte, Frank A; Fink, Daniel; Blancher, Peter J; Rodewald, Amanda D; Ruiz-Gutierrez, Viviana; Rosenberg, Kenneth V; Hochachka, Wesley M; Verburg, Peter H; Kelling, Steve

2017-12-01

Understanding the susceptibility of highly mobile taxa such as migratory birds to global change requires information on geographic patterns of occurrence across the annual cycle. Neotropical migrants that breed in North America and winter in Central America occur in high concentrations on their non-breeding grounds where they spend the majority of the year and where habitat loss has been associated with population declines. Here, we use eBird data to model weekly patterns of abundance and occurrence for 21 forest passerine species that winter in Central America. We estimate species' distributional dynamics across the annual cycle, which we use to determine how species are currently associated with public protected areas and projected changes in climate and land-use. The effects of global change on the non-breeding grounds is characterized by decreasing precipitation, especially during the summer, and the conversion of forest to cropland, grassland, or peri-urban. The effects of global change on the breeding grounds are characterized by increasing winter precipitation, higher temperatures, and the conversion of forest to peri-urban. During spring and autumn migration, species are projected to encounter higher temperatures, forests that have been converted to peri-urban, and increased precipitation during spring migration. Based on current distributional dynamics, susceptibility to global change is characterized by the loss of forested habitats on the non-breeding grounds, warming temperatures during migration and on the breeding grounds, and declining summer rainfall on the non-breeding grounds. Public protected areas with low and medium protection status are more prevalent on the non-breeding grounds, suggesting that management opportunities currently exist to mitigate near-term non-breeding habitat losses. These efforts would affect more individuals of more species during a longer period of the annual cycle, which may create additional opportunities for species to respond to changes in habitat or phenology that are likely to develop under climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Studying the Symbiotic Bacterium Xenorhabdus nematophila in Individual, Living Steinernema carpocapsae Nematodes Using Microfluidic Systems.

PubMed

Stilwell, Matthew D; Cao, Mengyi; Goodrich-Blair, Heidi; Weibel, Douglas B

2018-01-01

Animal-microbe symbioses are ubiquitous in nature and scientifically important in diverse areas, including ecology, medicine, and agriculture. Steinernema nematodes and Xenorhabdus bacteria compose an established, successful model system for investigating microbial pathogenesis and mutualism. The bacterium Xenorhabdus nematophila is a species-specific mutualist of insect-infecting Steinernema carpocapsae nematodes. The bacterium colonizes a specialized intestinal pocket within the infective stage of the nematode, which transports the bacteria between insects that are killed and consumed by the pair for reproduction. Current understanding of the interaction between the infective-stage nematode and its bacterial colonizers is based largely on population-level, snapshot time point studies on these organisms. This limitation arises because investigating temporal dynamics of the bacterium within the nematode is impeded by the difficulty of isolating and maintaining individual living nematodes and tracking colonizing bacterial cells over time. To overcome this challenge, we developed a microfluidic system that enables us to spatially isolate and microscopically observe individual, living Steinernema nematodes and monitor the growth and development of the associated X. nematophila bacterial communities-starting from a single cell or a few cells-over weeks. Our data demonstrate, to our knowledge, the first direct, temporal, in vivo visual analysis of a symbiosis system and the application of this system to reveal continuous dynamics of the symbiont population in the living host animal. IMPORTANCE This paper describes an experimental system for directly investigating population dynamics of a symbiotic bacterium, Xenorhabdus nematophila , in its host-the infective stage of the entomopathogenic nematode Steinernema carpocapsae . Tracking individual and groups of bacteria in individual host nematodes over days and weeks yielded insight into dynamic growth and topology changes of symbiotic bacterial populations within infective juvenile nematodes. Our approach for studying symbioses between bacteria and nematodes provides a system to investigate long-term host-microbe interactions in individual nematodes and extrapolate the lessons learned to other bacterium-animal interactions.

Climate Variability and Ponderosa Pine Colonizations in Central Wyoming: Integrating Dendroecology and Dendroclimatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lesser, M.; Wentzel, C.; Gray, S.; Jackson, S.

2007-12-01

Many tree species are predicted to expand into new territory over the coming decades in response to changing climate. By studying tree expansions over the last several centuries we can begin to understand the mechanisms underlying these changes and anticipate their consequences for forest management. Woody-plant demographics and decadal to multidecadal climate variability are often closely linked in semi-arid regions. Integrated tree-ring analysis, combining dendroecology and dendroclimatology to document, respectively, the demographic history of the population and the climatic history of the region, can reveal ecological dynamics in response to climate variability. We studied four small, disjunct populations of Pinus ponderosa in the Bighorn Basin of north-central Wyoming. These populations are located 30 to 100 kilometers from the nearest core populations of ponderosa pine in the western Bighorn Mountains. Packrat midden studies have shown that ponderosa pine colonized the western slopes of the Bighorn Range 1500 years ago, so the disjunct populations in the basin must be younger. All trees (living and dead) at each of the four disjunct populations were mapped, cored, and then aged using tree-ring based techniques. We obtained records of hydroclimatic variability from the Bighorn Basin using four tree-ring series from Pinus flexilis (3 sites) and Pseudotsuga menziesii (1 site). The four disjunct populations were all established within the past 500 years. Initially, the populations grew slowly with low recruitment rates until the early 19th century, when they experienced one or more large recruitment pulses. These pulses coincided with extended wet periods in the climate reconstruction. However, similar wet periods before the 19th Century were not accompanied by recruitment pulses, indicating that other factors (e.g., population density, genetic variability) are also important in colonization and expansion. We are currently obtaining genetic data and carrying out population modeling to differentiate the effects of population dynamics, genetic variability, and climate variability on recruitment and expansion of these populations.

Use of Mobile Device Data To Better Estimate Dynamic Population Size for Wastewater-Based Epidemiology.

PubMed

Thomas, Kevin V; Amador, Arturo; Baz-Lomba, Jose Antonio; Reid, Malcolm

2017-10-03

Wastewater-based epidemiology is an established approach for quantifying community drug use and has recently been applied to estimate population exposure to contaminants such as pesticides and phthalate plasticizers. A major source of uncertainty in the population weighted biomarker loads generated is related to estimating the number of people present in a sewer catchment at the time of sample collection. Here, the population quantified from mobile device-based population activity patterns was used to provide dynamic population normalized loads of illicit drugs and pharmaceuticals during a known period of high net fluctuation in the catchment population. Mobile device-based population activity patterns have for the first time quantified the high degree of intraday, week, and month variability within a specific sewer catchment. Dynamic population normalization showed that per capita pharmaceutical use remained unchanged during the period when static normalization would have indicated an average reduction of up to 31%. Per capita illicit drug use increased significantly during the monitoring period, an observation that was only possible to measure using dynamic population normalization. The study quantitatively confirms previous assessments that population estimates can account for uncertainties of up to 55% in static normalized data. Mobile device-based population activity patterns allow for dynamic normalization that yields much improved temporal and spatial trend analysis.

Eco-evolutionary dynamics in a coevolving host-virus system.

PubMed

Frickel, Jens; Sieber, Michael; Becks, Lutz

2016-04-01

Eco-evolutionary dynamics have been shown to be important for understanding population and community stability and their adaptive potential. However, coevolution in the framework of eco-evolutionary theory has not been addressed directly. Combining experiments with an algal host and its viral parasite, and mathematical model analyses we show eco-evolutionary dynamics in antagonistic coevolving populations. The interaction between antagonists initially resulted in arms race dynamics (ARD) with selective sweeps, causing oscillating host-virus population dynamics. However, ARD ended and populations stabilised after the evolution of a general resistant host, whereas a trade-off between host resistance and growth then maintained host diversity over time (trade-off driven dynamics). Most importantly, our study shows that the interaction between ecology and evolution had important consequences for the predictability of the mode and tempo of adaptive change and for the stability and adaptive potential of populations. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Evolution of specialization under non-equilibrium population dynamics.

PubMed

Nurmi, Tuomas; Parvinen, Kalle

2013-03-21

We analyze the evolution of specialization in resource utilization in a mechanistically underpinned discrete-time model using the adaptive dynamics approach. We assume two nutritionally equivalent resources that in the absence of consumers grow sigmoidally towards a resource-specific carrying capacity. The consumers use resources according to the law of mass-action with rates involving trade-off. The resulting discrete-time model for the consumer population has over-compensatory dynamics. We illuminate the way non-equilibrium population dynamics affect the evolutionary dynamics of the resource consumption rates, and show that evolution to the trimorphic coexistence of a generalist and two specialists is possible due to asynchronous non-equilibrium population dynamics of the specialists. In addition, various forms of cyclic evolutionary dynamics are possible. Furthermore, evolutionary suicide may occur even without Allee effects and demographic stochasticity. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Epidemiological tracking and population assignment of the non-clonal bacterium, Burkholderia pseudomallei.

PubMed

Dale, Julia; Price, Erin P; Hornstra, Heidie; Busch, Joseph D; Mayo, Mark; Godoy, Daniel; Wuthiekanun, Vanaporn; Baker, Anthony; Foster, Jeffrey T; Wagner, David M; Tuanyok, Apichai; Warner, Jeffrey; Spratt, Brian G; Peacock, Sharon J; Currie, Bart J; Keim, Paul; Pearson, Talima

2011-12-01

Rapid assignment of bacterial pathogens into predefined populations is an important first step for epidemiological tracking. For clonal species, a single allele can theoretically define a population. For non-clonal species such as Burkholderia pseudomallei, however, shared allelic states between distantly related isolates make it more difficult to identify population defining characteristics. Two distinct B. pseudomallei populations have been previously identified using multilocus sequence typing (MLST). These populations correlate with the major foci of endemicity (Australia and Southeast Asia). Here, we use multiple Bayesian approaches to evaluate the compositional robustness of these populations, and provide assignment results for MLST sequence types (STs). Our goal was to provide a reference for assigning STs to an established population without the need for further computational analyses. We also provide allele frequency results for each population to enable estimation of population assignment even when novel STs are discovered. The ability for humans and potentially contaminated goods to move rapidly across the globe complicates the task of identifying the source of an infection or outbreak. Population genetic dynamics of B. pseudomallei are particularly complicated relative to other bacterial pathogens, but the work here provides the ability for broad scale population assignment. As there is currently no independent empirical measure of successful population assignment, we provide comprehensive analytical details of our comparisons to enable the reader to evaluate the robustness of population designations and assignments as they pertain to individual research questions. Finer scale subdivision and verification of current population compositions will likely be possible with genotyping data that more comprehensively samples the genome. The approach used here may be valuable for other non-clonal pathogens that lack simple group-defining genetic characteristics and provides a rapid reference for epidemiologists wishing to track the origin of infection without the need to compile population data and learn population assignment algorithms.

A framework for studying transient dynamics of population projection matrix models.

PubMed

Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart; Hodgson, David James

2011-09-01

Empirical models are central to effective conservation and population management, and should be predictive of real-world dynamics. Available modelling methods are diverse, but analysis usually focuses on long-term dynamics that are unable to describe the complicated short-term time series that can arise even from simple models following ecological disturbances or perturbations. Recent interest in such transient dynamics has led to diverse methodologies for their quantification in density-independent, time-invariant population projection matrix (PPM) models, but the fragmented nature of this literature has stifled the widespread analysis of transients. We review the literature on transient analyses of linear PPM models and synthesise a coherent framework. We promote the use of standardised indices, and categorise indices according to their focus on either convergence times or transient population density, and on either transient bounds or case-specific transient dynamics. We use a large database of empirical PPM models to explore relationships between indices of transient dynamics. This analysis promotes the use of population inertia as a simple, versatile and informative predictor of transient population density, but criticises the utility of established indices of convergence times. Our findings should guide further development of analyses of transient population dynamics using PPMs or other empirical modelling techniques. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

An analysis of household waste management policy using system dynamics modelling.

PubMed

Inghels, Dirk; Dullaert, Wout

2011-04-01

This paper analyses the Flemish household waste management policy. Based on historical data from the period 1991-2006, literature reviews and interviews, both mathematical and descriptive relationships are derived that describe Flemish waste collection, reuse, recycling and disposal behaviour. This provides insights into how gross domestic product (GDP), population and selective collection behaviour have influenced household waste production and collection over time. These relationships are used to model the dynamic relationships underlying household waste management in Flanders by using a system dynamics (SD) modelling approach. Where most SD models in literature are conceptual and descriptive, in the present study a real-life case with both correlational and descriptive relationships was modelled for Flanders, a European region with an outstanding waste management track record. This model was used to evaluate the current Flemish household waste management policy based on the principles of the waste hierarchy, also referred as the Lansink ranking. The results show that Flemish household waste targets up to 2015 can be achieved by the current waste policy measures. It also shows the sensitivity of some key policy parameters such as prevention and reuse. Given the general nature of the model and its limited data requirements, the authors believe that the approach implemented in this model can also assist waste policy makers in other regions or countries to meet their policy targets by simulating the effect of their current and potential household waste policy measures.

Complex Ancient Genetic Structure and Cultural Transitions in Southern African Populations.

PubMed

Montinaro, Francesco; Busby, George B J; Gonzalez-Santos, Miguel; Oosthuitzen, Ockie; Oosthuitzen, Erika; Anagnostou, Paolo; Destro-Bisol, Giovanni; Pascali, Vincenzo L; Capelli, Cristian

2017-01-01

The characterization of the structure of southern African populations has been the subject of numerous genetic, medical, linguistic, archaeological, and anthropological investigations. Current diversity in the subcontinent is the result of complex events of genetic admixture and cultural contact between early inhabitants and migrants that arrived in the region over the last 2000 years. Here, we analyze 1856 individuals from 91 populations, comprising novel and published genotype data, to characterize the genetic ancestry profiles of 631 individuals from 51 southern African populations. Combining both local ancestry and allele frequency based analyses, we identify a tripartite, ancient, Khoesan-related genetic structure. This structure correlates neither with linguistic affiliation nor subsistence strategy, but with geography, revealing the importance of isolation-by-distance dynamics in the area. Fine-mapping of these components in southern African populations reveals admixture and cultural reversion involving several Khoesan groups, and highlights that Bantu speakers and Coloured individuals have different mixtures of these ancient ancestries. Copyright © 2017 Montinaro et al.

Meta-Analysis of Relationships between Human Offtake, Total Mortality and Population Dynamics of Gray Wolves (Canis lupus)

PubMed Central

Creel, Scott; Rotella, Jay J.

2010-01-01

Following the growth and geographic expansion of wolf (Canis lupus) populations reintroduced to Yellowstone National Park and central Idaho in 1995–1996, Rocky Mountain wolves were removed from the endangered species list in May 2009. Idaho and Montana immediately established hunting seasons with quotas equaling 20% of the regional wolf population. Combining hunting with predator control, 37.1% of Montana and Idaho wolves were killed in the year of delisting. Hunting and predator control are well-established methods to broaden societal acceptance of large carnivores, but it is unprecedented for a species to move so rapidly from protection under the Endangered Species Act to heavy direct harvest, and it is important to use all available data to assess the likely consequences of these changes in policy. For wolves, it is widely argued that human offtake has little effect on total mortality rates, so that a harvest of 28–50% per year can be sustained. Using previously published data from 21 North American wolf populations, we related total annual mortality and population growth to annual human offtake. Contrary to current conventional wisdom, there was a strong association between human offtake and total mortality rates across North American wolf populations. Human offtake was associated with a strongly additive or super-additive increase in total mortality. Population growth declined as human offtake increased, even at low rates of offtake. Finally, wolf populations declined with harvests substantially lower than the thresholds identified in current state and federal policies. These results should help to inform management of Rocky Mountain wolves. PMID:20927363

Meta-analysis of relationships between human offtake, total mortality and population dynamics of gray wolves (Canis lupus).

PubMed

Creel, Scott; Rotella, Jay J

2010-09-29

Following the growth and geographic expansion of wolf (Canis lupus) populations reintroduced to Yellowstone National Park and central Idaho in 1995-1996, Rocky Mountain wolves were removed from the endangered species list in May 2009. Idaho and Montana immediately established hunting seasons with quotas equaling 20% of the regional wolf population. Combining hunting with predator control, 37.1% of Montana and Idaho wolves were killed in the year of delisting. Hunting and predator control are well-established methods to broaden societal acceptance of large carnivores, but it is unprecedented for a species to move so rapidly from protection under the Endangered Species Act to heavy direct harvest, and it is important to use all available data to assess the likely consequences of these changes in policy. For wolves, it is widely argued that human offtake has little effect on total mortality rates, so that a harvest of 28-50% per year can be sustained. Using previously published data from 21 North American wolf populations, we related total annual mortality and population growth to annual human offtake. Contrary to current conventional wisdom, there was a strong association between human offtake and total mortality rates across North American wolf populations. Human offtake was associated with a strongly additive or super-additive increase in total mortality. Population growth declined as human offtake increased, even at low rates of offtake. Finally, wolf populations declined with harvests substantially lower than the thresholds identified in current state and federal policies. These results should help to inform management of Rocky Mountain wolves.

Effects of wind energy generation and white-nose syndrome on the viability of the Indiana bat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erickson, Richard A.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Russell, Robin E.; Szymanski, Jennifer A.

2016-01-01

Wind energy generation holds the potential to adversely affect wildlife populations. Species-wide effects are difficult to study and few, if any, studies examine effects of wind energy generation on any species across its entire range. One species that may be affected by wind energy generation is the endangered Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis), which is found in the eastern and midwestern United States. In addition to mortality from wind energy generation, the species also faces range-wide threats from the emerging infectious fungal disease, white-nose syndrome (WNS). White-nose syndrome, caused by Pseudogymnoascus destructans, disturbs hibernating bats leading to high levels of mortality. We used a spatially explicit full-annual-cycle model to investigate how wind turbine mortality and WNS may singly and then together affect population dynamics of this species. In the simulation, wind turbine mortality impacted the metapopulation dynamics of the species by causing extirpation of some of the smaller winter colonies. In general, effects of wind turbines were localized and focused on specific spatial subpopulations. Conversely, WNS had a depressive effect on the species across its range. Wind turbine mortality interacted with WNS and together these stressors had a larger impact than would be expected from either alone, principally because these stressors together act to reduce species abundance across the spectrum of population sizes. Our findings illustrate the importance of not only prioritizing the protection of large winter colonies as is currently done, but also of protecting metapopulation dynamics and migratory connectivity.

Effects of wind energy generation and white-nose syndrome on the viability of the Indiana bat.

PubMed

Erickson, Richard A; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Diffendorfer, Jay E; Russell, Robin E; Szymanski, Jennifer A

2016-01-01

Wind energy generation holds the potential to adversely affect wildlife populations. Species-wide effects are difficult to study and few, if any, studies examine effects of wind energy generation on any species across its entire range. One species that may be affected by wind energy generation is the endangered Indiana bat ( Myotis sodalis ), which is found in the eastern and midwestern United States. In addition to mortality from wind energy generation, the species also faces range-wide threats from the emerging infectious fungal disease, white-nose syndrome (WNS). White-nose syndrome, caused by Pseudogymnoascus destructans , disturbs hibernating bats leading to high levels of mortality. We used a spatially explicit full-annual-cycle model to investigate how wind turbine mortality and WNS may singly and then together affect population dynamics of this species. In the simulation, wind turbine mortality impacted the metapopulation dynamics of the species by causing extirpation of some of the smaller winter colonies. In general, effects of wind turbines were localized and focused on specific spatial subpopulations. Conversely, WNS had a depressive effect on the species across its range. Wind turbine mortality interacted with WNS and together these stressors had a larger impact than would be expected from either alone, principally because these stressors together act to reduce species abundance across the spectrum of population sizes. Our findings illustrate the importance of not only prioritizing the protection of large winter colonies as is currently done, but also of protecting metapopulation dynamics and migratory connectivity.

A web-based relational database for monitoring and analyzing mosquito population dynamics.

PubMed

Sucaet, Yves; Van Hemert, John; Tucker, Brad; Bartholomay, Lyric

2008-07-01

Mosquito population dynamics have been monitored on an annual basis in the state of Iowa since 1969. The primary goal of this project was to integrate light trap data from these efforts into a centralized back-end database and interactive website that is available through the internet at http://iowa-mosquito.ent.iastate.edu. For comparative purposes, all data were categorized according to the week of the year and normalized according to the number of traps running. Users can readily view current, weekly mosquito abundance compared with data from previous years. Additional interactive capabilities facilitate analyses of the data based on mosquito species, distribution, or a time frame of interest. All data can be viewed in graphical and tabular format and can be downloaded to a comma separated value (CSV) file for import into a spreadsheet or more specialized statistical software package. Having this long-term dataset in a centralized database/website is useful for informing mosquito and mosquito-borne disease control and for exploring the ecology of the species represented therein. In addition to mosquito population dynamics, this database is available as a standardized platform that could be modified and applied to a multitude of projects that involve repeated collection of observational data. The development and implementation of this tool provides capacity for the user to mine data from standard spreadsheets into a relational database and then view and query the data in an interactive website.

Dispersal, density dependence, and population dynamics of a fungal microbe on leaf surfaces.

PubMed

Woody, Scott T; Ives, Anthony R; Nordheim, Erik V; Andrews, John H

2007-06-01

Despite the ubiquity and importance of microbes in nature, little is known about their natural population dynamics, especially for those that occupy terrestrial habitats. Here we investigate the dynamics of the yeast-like fungus Aureobasidium pullulans (Ap) on apple leaves in an orchard. We asked three questions. (1) Is variation in fungal population density among leaves caused by variation in leaf carrying capacities and strong density-dependent population growth that maintains densities near carrying capacity? (2) Do resident populations have competitive advantages over immigrant cells? (3) Do Ap dynamics differ at different times during the growing season? To address these questions, we performed two experiments at different times in the growing season. Both experiments used a 2 x 2 factorial design: treatment 1 removed fungal cells from leaves to reveal density-dependent population growth, and treatment 2 inoculated leaves with an Ap strain engineered to express green fluorescent protein (GFP), which made it possible to track the fate of immigrant cells. The experiments showed that natural populations of Ap vary greatly in density due to sustained differences in carrying capacities among leaves. The maintenance of populations close to carrying capacities indicates strong density-dependent processes. Furthermore, resident populations are strongly competitive against immigrants, while immigrants have little impact on residents. Finally, statistical models showed high population growth rates of resident cells in one experiment but not in the other, suggesting that Ap experiences relatively "good" and "bad" periods for population growth. This picture of Ap dynamics conforms to commonly held, but rarely demonstrated, expectations of microbe dynamics in nature. It also highlights the importance of local processes, as opposed to immigration, in determining the abundance and dynamics of microbes on surfaces in terrestrial systems.

Assessment of Public Health and Economic Impact of Intranasal Live-Attenuated Influenza Vaccination of Children in France Using a Dynamic Transmission Model.

PubMed

Gerlier, L; Lamotte, M; Grenèche, S; Lenne, X; Carrat, F; Weil-Olivier, C; Damm, O; Schwehm, M; Eichner, M

2017-04-01

We estimated the epidemiological and economic impact of extending the French influenza vaccination programme from at-risk/elderly (≥65 years) only to healthy children (2-17 years). A deterministic, age-structured, dynamic transmission model was used to simulate the transmission of influenza in the French population, using the current vaccination coverage with trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV) in at-risk/elderly individuals (current strategy) or gradually extending the vaccination to healthy children (aged 2-17 years) with intranasal, quadrivalent live-attenuated influenza vaccine (QLAIV) from current uptake up to 50% (evaluated strategy). Epidemiological, medical resource use and cost data were taken from international literature and country-specific information. The model was calibrated to the observed numbers of influenza-like illness visits/year. The 10-year number of symptomatic cases of confirmed influenza and direct medical costs ('all-payer') were calculated for the 0-17- (direct and indirect effects) and ≥18-year-old (indirect effect). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated for the total population, using a 4% discount rate/year. Assuming 2.3 million visits/year and 1960 deaths/year, the model calibration yielded an all-year average basic reproduction number (R 0 ) of 1.27. In the population aged 0-17 years, QLAIV prevented 865,000 influenza cases/year (58.4%), preventing 10-year direct medical expenses of €374 million. In those aged ≥18 years with unchanged TIV coverage, 1.2 million cases/year were averted (27.6%) via indirect effects (additionally prevented expenses, €457 million). On average, 613 influenza-related deaths were averted annually overall. The ICER was €18,001/life-year gained. The evaluated strategy had a 98% probability of being cost-effective at a €31,000/life-year gained threshold. The model demonstrated strong direct and indirect benefits of protecting healthy children against influenza with QLAIV on public health and economic outcomes in France.

Multimodal fusion of polynomial classifiers for automatic person recgonition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broun, Charles C.; Zhang, Xiaozheng

2001-03-01

With the prevalence of the information age, privacy and personalization are forefront in today's society. As such, biometrics are viewed as essential components of current evolving technological systems. Consumers demand unobtrusive and non-invasive approaches. In our previous work, we have demonstrated a speaker verification system that meets these criteria. However, there are additional constraints for fielded systems. The required recognition transactions are often performed in adverse environments and across diverse populations, necessitating robust solutions. There are two significant problem areas in current generation speaker verification systems. The first is the difficulty in acquiring clean audio signals in all environments without encumbering the user with a head- mounted close-talking microphone. Second, unimodal biometric systems do not work with a significant percentage of the population. To combat these issues, multimodal techniques are being investigated to improve system robustness to environmental conditions, as well as improve overall accuracy across the population. We propose a multi modal approach that builds on our current state-of-the-art speaker verification technology. In order to maintain the transparent nature of the speech interface, we focus on optical sensing technology to provide the additional modality-giving us an audio-visual person recognition system. For the audio domain, we use our existing speaker verification system. For the visual domain, we focus on lip motion. This is chosen, rather than static face or iris recognition, because it provides dynamic information about the individual. In addition, the lip dynamics can aid speech recognition to provide liveness testing. The visual processing method makes use of both color and edge information, combined within Markov random field MRF framework, to localize the lips. Geometric features are extracted and input to a polynomial classifier for the person recognition process. A late integration approach, based on a probabilistic model, is employed to combine the two modalities. The system is tested on the XM2VTS database combined with AWGN in the audio domain over a range of signal-to-noise ratios.

Who and What Is a “Population”? Historical Debates, Current Controversies, and Implications for Understanding “Population Health” and Rectifying Health Inequities

PubMed Central

Krieger, Nancy

2012-01-01

Context The idea of “population” is core to the population sciences but is rarely defined except in statistical terms. Yet who and what defines and makes a population has everything to do with whether population means are meaningful or meaningless, with profound implications for work on population health and health inequities. Methods In this article, I review the current conventional definitions of, and historical debates over, the meaning(s) of “population,” trace back the contemporary emphasis on populations as statistical rather than substantive entities to Adolphe Quetelet's powerful astronomical metaphor, conceived in the 1830s, of l’homme moyen (the average man), and argue for an alternative definition of populations as relational beings. As informed by the ecosocial theory of disease distribution, I then analyze several case examples to explore the utility of critical population-informed thinking for research, knowledge, and policy involving population health and health inequities. Findings Four propositions emerge: (1) the meaningfulness of means depends on how meaningfully the populations are defined in relation to the inherent intrinsic and extrinsic dynamic generative relationships by which they are constituted; (2) structured chance drives population distributions of health and entails conceptualizing health and disease, including biomarkers, as embodied phenotype and health inequities as historically contingent; (3) persons included in population health research are study participants, and the casual equation of this term with “study population” should be avoided; and (4) the conventional cleavage of “internal validity” and “generalizability” is misleading, since a meaningful choice of study participants must be in relation to the range of exposures experienced (or not) in the real-world societies, that is, meaningful populations, of which they are a part. Conclusions To improve conceptual clarity, causal inference, and action to promote health equity, population sciences need to expand and deepen their theorizing about who and what makes populations and their means. PMID:23216426

Long-term dynamics of Typha populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grace, J.B.; Wetzel, R.G.

1998-01-01

The zonation of Typha populations in an experimental pond in Michigan was re-examined 15 years after the original sampling to gain insight into the long-term dynamics. Current distributions of Typha populations were also examined in additional experimental ponds at the site that have been maintained for 23 years. The zonation between T. latifolia and T. angustifolia in the previously studied pond 15 years after the initial sampling revealed that the density and distribution of shoots had not changed significantly. Thus, it appears that previously reported results (based on 7- year old populations) have remained consistent over time. Additional insight into the interaction between these two taxa was sought by comparing mixed and monoculture stands in five experimental ponds that have remained undisturbed for their 23-year history. The maximum depth of T. latifolia, the shallow- water species, was not significantly reduced when growing in the presence of the more flood tolerant T. angustifolia. In contrast, the minimum depth of T. angustifolia was reduced from 0 to 37 cm when in the presence of T. latifolia. When total populations were compared between monoculture and mixed stands, the average density of T. angustifolia shoots was 59.4 percent lower in mixed stands while the density of T. latifolia was 32 percent lower, with T. angustifolia most affected at shallow depths (reduced by 92 percent) and T. latifolia most affected at the deepest depths (reduced by 60 percent). These long-term observations indicate that competitive displacement between Typha taxa has remained stable over time.

Rapid evolution leads to differential population dynamics and top-down control in resurrected Daphnia populations.

PubMed

Goitom, Eyerusalem; Kilsdonk, Laurens J; Brans, Kristien; Jansen, Mieke; Lemmens, Pieter; De Meester, Luc

2018-01-01

There is growing evidence of rapid genetic adaptation of natural populations to environmental change, opening the perspective that evolutionary trait change may subsequently impact ecological processes such as population dynamics, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. To study such eco-evolutionary feedbacks in natural populations, however, requires samples across time. Here, we capitalize on a resurrection ecology study that documented rapid and adaptive evolution in a natural population of the water flea Daphnia magna in response to strong changes in predation pressure by fish, and carry out a follow-up mesocosm experiment to test whether the observed genetic changes influence population dynamics and top-down control of phytoplankton. We inoculated populations of the water flea D. magna derived from three time periods of the same natural population known to have genetically adapted to changes in predation pressure in replicate mesocosms and monitored both Daphnia population densities and phytoplankton biomass in the presence and absence of fish. Our results revealed differences in population dynamics and top-down control of algae between mesocosms harboring populations from the time period before, during, and after a peak in fish predation pressure caused by human fish stocking. The differences, however, deviated from our a priori expectations. An S-map approach on time series revealed that the interactions between adults and juveniles strongly impacted the dynamics of populations and their top-down control on algae in the mesocosms, and that the strength of these interactions was modulated by rapid evolution as it occurred in nature. Our study provides an example of an evolutionary response that fundamentally alters the processes structuring population dynamics and impacts ecosystem features.

Feedback between Population and Evolutionary Dynamics Determines the Fate of Social Microbial Populations

PubMed Central

Sanchez, Alvaro; Gore, Jeff

2013-01-01

The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50–100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators “spiral” to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the demographic fate of those species that rely on cooperation for their survival. PMID:23637571

Modelling the dynamics of traits involved in fighting-predators-prey system.

PubMed

Kooi, B W

2015-12-01

We study the dynamics of a predator-prey system where predators fight for captured prey besides searching for and handling (and digestion) of the prey. Fighting for prey is modelled by a continuous time hawk-dove game dynamics where the gain depends on the amount of disputed prey while the costs for fighting is constant per fighting event. The strategy of the predator-population is quantified by a trait being the proportion of the number of predator-individuals playing hawk tactics. The dynamics of the trait is described by two models of adaptation: the replicator dynamics (RD) and the adaptive dynamics (AD). In the RD-approach a variant individual with an adapted trait value changes the population's strategy, and consequently its trait value, only when its payoff is larger than the population average. In the AD-approach successful replacement of the resident population after invasion of a rare variant population with an adapted trait value is a step in a sequence changing the population's strategy, and hence its trait value. The main aim is to compare the consequences of the two adaptation models. In an equilibrium predator-prey system this will lead to convergence to a neutral singular strategy, while in the oscillatory system to a continuous singular strategy where in this endpoint the resident population is not invasible by any variant population. In equilibrium (low prey carrying capacity) RD and AD-approach give the same results, however not always in a periodically oscillating system (high prey carrying-capacity) where the trait is density-dependent. For low costs the predator population is monomorphic (only hawks) while for high costs dimorphic (hawks and doves). These results illustrate that intra-specific trait dynamics matters in predator-prey dynamics.

Effects of an invasive plant on population dynamics in toads.

PubMed

Greenberg, Daniel A; Green, David M

2013-10-01

When populations decline in response to unfavorable environmental change, the dynamics of their population growth shift. In populations that normally exhibit high levels of variation in recruitment and abundance, as do many amphibians, declines may be difficult to identify from natural fluctuations in abundance. However, the onset of declines may be evident from changes in population growth rate in sufficiently long time series of population data. With data from 23 years of study of a population of Fowler's toad (Anaxyrus [ = Bufo] fowleri) at Long Point, Ontario (1989-2011), we sought to identify such a shift in dynamics. We tested for trends in abundance to detect a change point in population dynamics and then tested among competing population models to identify associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The most informative models of population growth included terms for toad abundance and the extent of an invasive marsh plant, the common reed (Phragmites australis), throughout the toads' marshland breeding areas. Our results showed density-dependent growth in the toad population from 1989 through 2002. After 2002, however, we found progressive population decline in the toads associated with the spread of common reeds and consequent loss of toad breeding habitat. This resulted in reduced recruitment and population growth despite the lack of significant loss of adult habitat. Our results underscore the value of using long-term time series to identify shifts in population dynamics coincident with the advent of population decline. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Reinforcement Learning of Two-Joint Virtual Arm Reaching in a Computer Model of Sensorimotor Cortex

PubMed Central

Neymotin, Samuel A.; Chadderdon, George L.; Kerr, Cliff C.; Francis, Joseph T.; Lytton, William W.

2014-01-01

Neocortical mechanisms of learning sensorimotor control involve a complex series of interactions at multiple levels, from synaptic mechanisms to cellular dynamics to network connectomics. We developed a model of sensory and motor neocortex consisting of 704 spiking model neurons. Sensory and motor populations included excitatory cells and two types of interneurons. Neurons were interconnected with AMPA/NMDA and GABAA synapses. We trained our model using spike-timing-dependent reinforcement learning to control a two-joint virtual arm to reach to a fixed target. For each of 125 trained networks, we used 200 training sessions, each involving 15 s reaches to the target from 16 starting positions. Learning altered network dynamics, with enhancements to neuronal synchrony and behaviorally relevant information flow between neurons. After learning, networks demonstrated retention of behaviorally relevant memories by using proprioceptive information to perform reach-to-target from multiple starting positions. Networks dynamically controlled which joint rotations to use to reach a target, depending on current arm position. Learning-dependent network reorganization was evident in both sensory and motor populations: learned synaptic weights showed target-specific patterning optimized for particular reach movements. Our model embodies an integrative hypothesis of sensorimotor cortical learning that could be used to interpret future electrophysiological data recorded in vivo from sensorimotor learning experiments. We used our model to make the following predictions: learning enhances synchrony in neuronal populations and behaviorally relevant information flow across neuronal populations, enhanced sensory processing aids task-relevant motor performance and the relative ease of a particular movement in vivo depends on the amount of sensory information required to complete the movement. PMID:24047323

DYNAMO-HIA--a Dynamic Modeling tool for generic Health Impact Assessments.

PubMed

Lhachimi, Stefan K; Nusselder, Wilma J; Smit, Henriette A; van Baal, Pieter; Baili, Paolo; Bennett, Kathleen; Fernández, Esteve; Kulik, Margarete C; Lobstein, Tim; Pomerleau, Joceline; Mackenbach, Johan P; Boshuizen, Hendriek C

2012-01-01

Currently, no standard tool is publicly available that allows researchers or policy-makers to quantify the impact of policies using epidemiological evidence within the causal framework of Health Impact Assessment (HIA). A standard tool should comply with three technical criteria (real-life population, dynamic projection, explicit risk-factor states) and three usability criteria (modest data requirements, rich model output, generally accessible) to be useful in the applied setting of HIA. With DYNAMO-HIA (Dynamic Modeling for Health Impact Assessment), we introduce such a generic software tool specifically designed to facilitate quantification in the assessment of the health impacts of policies. DYNAMO-HIA quantifies the impact of user-specified risk-factor changes on multiple diseases and in turn on overall population health, comparing one reference scenario with one or more intervention scenarios. The Markov-based modeling approach allows for explicit risk-factor states and simulation of a real-life population. A built-in parameter estimation module ensures that only standard population-level epidemiological evidence is required, i.e. data on incidence, prevalence, relative risks, and mortality. DYNAMO-HIA provides a rich output of summary measures--e.g. life expectancy and disease-free life expectancy--and detailed data--e.g. prevalences and mortality/survival rates--by age, sex, and risk-factor status over time. DYNAMO-HIA is controlled via a graphical user interface and is publicly available from the internet, ensuring general accessibility. We illustrate the use of DYNAMO-HIA with two example applications: a policy causing an overall increase in alcohol consumption and quantifying the disease-burden of smoking. By combining modest data needs with general accessibility and user friendliness within the causal framework of HIA, DYNAMO-HIA is a potential standard tool for health impact assessment based on epidemiologic evidence.

Temperature-driven regime shifts in the dynamics of size-structured populations.

PubMed

Ohlberger, Jan; Edeline, Eric; Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn; Stenseth, Nils C; Claessen, David

2011-02-01

Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood, hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here, we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates, reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature, the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence, maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations, global warming may increase competition, favor smaller size classes, and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics.

Transient synchrony among populations of five foliage-feeding Lepidoptera

Treesearch

Maartje J. Klapwijk; Jonathan A. Walter; Anikó Hirka; György Csóka; Christer Björkman; Andrew M. Liebhold

2018-01-01

Studies of transient population dynamics have largely focused on temporal changes in dynamical behaviour, such as the transition between periods of stability and instability. This study explores a related dynamic pattern, namely transient synchrony during a 49-year period among populations of five sympatric species of forest insects that share host tree resources. The...

Path-integral methods for analyzing the effects of fluctuations in stochastic hybrid neural networks.

PubMed

Bressloff, Paul C

2015-01-01

We consider applications of path-integral methods to the analysis of a stochastic hybrid model representing a network of synaptically coupled spiking neuronal populations. The state of each local population is described in terms of two stochastic variables, a continuous synaptic variable and a discrete activity variable. The synaptic variables evolve according to piecewise-deterministic dynamics describing, at the population level, synapses driven by spiking activity. The dynamical equations for the synaptic currents are only valid between jumps in spiking activity, and the latter are described by a jump Markov process whose transition rates depend on the synaptic variables. We assume a separation of time scales between fast spiking dynamics with time constant [Formula: see text] and slower synaptic dynamics with time constant τ. This naturally introduces a small positive parameter [Formula: see text], which can be used to develop various asymptotic expansions of the corresponding path-integral representation of the stochastic dynamics. First, we derive a variational principle for maximum-likelihood paths of escape from a metastable state (large deviations in the small noise limit [Formula: see text]). We then show how the path integral provides an efficient method for obtaining a diffusion approximation of the hybrid system for small ϵ. The resulting Langevin equation can be used to analyze the effects of fluctuations within the basin of attraction of a metastable state, that is, ignoring the effects of large deviations. We illustrate this by using the Langevin approximation to analyze the effects of intrinsic noise on pattern formation in a spatially structured hybrid network. In particular, we show how noise enlarges the parameter regime over which patterns occur, in an analogous fashion to PDEs. Finally, we carry out a [Formula: see text]-loop expansion of the path integral, and use this to derive corrections to voltage-based mean-field equations, analogous to the modified activity-based equations generated from a neural master equation.

Cancer stem cells and personalized cancer nanomedicine.

PubMed

Gener, Petra; Rafael, Diana Fernandes de Sousa; Fernández, Yolanda; Ortega, Joan Sayós; Arango, Diego; Abasolo, Ibane; Videira, Mafalda; Schwartz, Simo

2016-02-01

Despite the progress in cancer treatment over the past years advanced cancer is still an incurable disease. Special attention is pointed toward cancer stem cell (CSC)-targeted therapies, because this minor cell population is responsible for the treatment resistance, metastatic growth and tumor recurrence. The recently described CSC dynamic phenotype and interconversion model of cancer growth hamper even more the possible success of current cancer treatments in advanced cancer stages. Accordingly, CSCs can be generated through dedifferentiation processes from non-CSCs, in particular, when CSC populations are depleted after treatment. In this context, the use of targeted CSC nanomedicines should be considered as a promising tool to increase CSC sensitivity and efficacy of specific anti-CSC therapies.

The Ecology of Prions

PubMed Central

Ortega, Aimee

2017-01-01

SUMMARY Chronic wasting disease (CWD) affects cervids and is the only known prion disease readily transmitted among free-ranging wild animal populations in nature. The increasing spread and prevalence of CWD among cervid populations threaten the survival of deer and elk herds in North America, and potentially beyond. This review focuses on prion ecology, specifically that of CWD, and the current understanding of the role that the environment may play in disease propagation. We recount the discovery of CWD, discuss the role of the environment in indirect CWD transmission, and consider potentially relevant environmental reservoirs and vectors. We conclude by discussing how understanding the environmental persistence of CWD lends insight into transmission dynamics and potential management and mitigation strategies. PMID:28566466

Chicago's water market: Dynamics of demand, prices and scarcity rents

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ipe, V.C.; Bhagwat, S.B.

2002-01-01

Chicago and its suburbs are experiencing an increasing demand for water from a growing population and economy and may experience water scarcity in the near future. The Chicago metropolitan area has nearly depleted its groundwater resources to a point where interstate conflicts with Wisconsin could accompany an increased reliance on those sources. Further, the withdrawals from Lake Michigan is limited by the Supreme Court decree. The growing demand and indications of possible scarcity suggest a need to reexamine the pricing policies and the dynamics of demand. The study analyses the demand for water and develops estimates of scarcity rents for water in Chicago. The price and income elasticities computed at the means are -0.002 and 0.0002 respectively. The estimated scarcity rents ranges from $0.98 to $1.17 per thousand gallons. The results indicate that the current prices do not fully account for the scarcity rents and suggest a current rate with in the range $1.53 to $1.72 per thousand gallons.

Comparison of the seasonal variability in abundance of the copepod Pseudocalanus newmani in Lagoon Notoro-ko and a coastal area of the southwestern Okhotsk Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitamura, Mitsuaki; Nakagawa, Yoshizumi; Nishino, Yasuto; Segawa, Susumu; Shiomoto, Akihiro

2018-03-01

Replacement of the warm water of the Soya Warm Current (SWC) and the cold water of the East Sakhalin Current (ESC) occurs seasonally along the coast of the southwestern Okhotsk Sea, and sea ice covers the surface during winter. Pseudocalanus newmani is one of the dominant copepods in coastal waters of the northern hemisphere. To better understand the population dynamics of the copepod P. newmani in coastal areas of the southwestern Okhotsk Sea, this study compared the seasonal variation in P. newmani abundance in Lagoon Notoro-ko and a coastal area of the Okhotsk Sea with regard to developmental stage. We sampled P. newmani in the lagoon, including during the ice cover season, and the coastal waters. Pseudocalanus newmani was abundant at both sites in spring. During summer-fall, adults disappeared from the populations at both sites, whereas the early developmental stages were abundant and dominated the population. Total length of adult females decreased toward summer at both sites. Pseudocalanus newmani abundance in the lagoon increased in early winter, and larger females were found in the populations at both sites. These phenomena at both sites corresponded with seasonal variation in water temperature caused by seasonal water-mass replacement and sea ice.

Study of a tri-trophic prey-dependent food chain model of interacting populations.

PubMed

Haque, Mainul; Ali, Nijamuddin; Chakravarty, Santabrata

2013-11-01

The current paper accounts for the influence of intra-specific competition among predators in a prey dependent tri-trophic food chain model of interacting populations. We offer a detailed mathematical analysis of the proposed food chain model to illustrate some of the significant results that has arisen from the interplay of deterministic ecological phenomena and processes. Biologically feasible equilibria of the system are observed and the behaviours of the system around each of them are described. In particular, persistence, stability (local and global) and bifurcation (saddle-node, transcritical, Hopf-Andronov) analysis of this model are obtained. Relevant results from previous well known food chain models are compared with the current findings. Global stability analysis is also carried out by constructing appropriate Lyapunov functions. Numerical simulations show that the present system is capable enough to produce chaotic dynamics when the rate of self-interaction is very low. On the other hand such chaotic behaviour disappears for a certain value of the rate of self interaction. In addition, numerical simulations with experimented parameters values confirm the analytical results and shows that intra-specific competitions bears a potential role in controlling the chaotic dynamics of the system; and thus the role of self interactions in food chain model is illustrated first time. Finally, a discussion of the ecological applications of the analytical and numerical findings concludes the paper. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment.

PubMed

Vindenes, Yngvild; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2011-05-01

Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.

Interview: Mr. Stephen Chee, team leader, UNFPA country support team (CST) for the South Pacific.

PubMed

1993-09-01

The UNFPA country support team (CST) for the South Pacific is the action-arm at the regional level of the new Technical Support Services arrangement introduced by the agency. Operational since April 1993, the CST currently covers the following Pacific island countries or territories: the Cook Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. The CST office is located in Suva, Fiji, with the main goal of strengthening national capacity and building self-reliance in the countries of the region. The office in Suva is currently staffed by six highly qualified advisors with extensive experience in the population and related fields; two more advisors are expected to join the Team in early 1994. The Team is well equipped to provide countries and territories of the region with a wide range of technical support services ranging from ad hoc technical advisory services to the conceptualization and development of comprehensive population policies and programs. Services are offered in the areas of basic data collection, processing, and research in population dynamics; population policy formulation, evaluation, and implementation; family planning and maternal-child health; information, education, and communication; women in population and development; and population program management. The team also plays an advocacy role in mainstreaming population concerns into the programs and activities of international, regional, and national organizations. The team leader responds to questions about population problems experienced by the countries served, the scope of UNFPA assistance to country governments in the subregion, the importance of population information in the subregion, and how Asia-Pacific POPIN may help the team and countries served.

Photoassociation dynamics driven by a modulated two-color laser field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wei; Zhao, Ze-Yu; Xie, Ting; Wang, Gao-Ren; Huang, Yin; Cong, Shu-Lin

2011-11-01

Photoassociation (PA) dynamics of ultracold cesium atoms steered by a modulated two-color laser field E(t)=E0f(t)cos((2π)/(Tp)-φ)cos(ωLt) is investigated theoretically by numerically solving the time-dependent Schrödinger equation. The PA dynamics is sensitive to the phase of envelope (POE) φ and the period of the envelope Tp, which indicates that it can be controlled by varying POE φ and period Tp. Moreover, we introduce the time- and frequency-resolved spectrum to illustrate how the POE φ and the period Tp influence the intensity distribution of the modulated laser pulse and hence change the time-dependent population distribution of photoassociated molecules. When the Gaussian envelope contains a few oscillations, the PA efficiency is also dependent on POE φ. The modulated two-color laser field is available in the current experiment based on laser mode-lock technology.

The Impact of Saccharomyces cerevisiae on a Wine Yeast Consortium in Natural and Inoculated Fermentations

PubMed Central

Bagheri, Bahareh; Bauer, Florian F.; Setati, Mathabatha E.

2017-01-01

Natural, also referred to as spontaneous wine fermentations, are carried out by the native microbiota of the grape juice, without inoculation of selected, industrially produced yeast or bacterial strains. Such fermentations are commonly initiated by non-Saccharomyces yeast species that numerically dominate the must. Community composition and numerical dominance of species vary significantly between individual musts, but Saccharomyces cerevisiae will in most cases dominate the late stages of the fermentation and complete the process. Nevertheless, non-Saccharomyces species contribute significantly, positively or negatively, to the character and quality of the final product. The contribution is species and strain dependent and will depend on each species or strain’s absolute and relative contribution to total metabolically active biomass, and will therefore, be a function of its relative fitness within the microbial ecosystem. However, the population dynamics of multispecies fermentations are not well understood. Consequently, the oenological potential of the microbiome in any given grape must, can currently not be evaluated or predicted. To better characterize the rules that govern the complex wine microbial ecosystem, a model yeast consortium comprising eight species commonly encountered in South African grape musts and an ARISA based method to monitor their dynamics were developed and validated. The dynamics of these species were evaluated in synthetic must in the presence or absence of S. cerevisiae using direct viable counts and ARISA. The data show that S. cerevisiae specifically suppresses certain species while appearing to favor the persistence of other species. Growth dynamics in Chenin blanc grape must fermentation was monitored only through viable counts. The interactions observed in the synthetic must, were upheld in the natural must fermentations, suggesting the broad applicability of the observed ecosystem dynamics. Importantly, the presence of indigenous yeast populations did not appear to affect the broad interaction patterns between the consortium species. The data show that the wine ecosystem is characterized by both mutually supportive and inhibitory species. The current study presents a first step in the development of a model to predict the oenological potential of any given wine mycobiome. PMID:29085347

The Impact of Saccharomyces cerevisiae on a Wine Yeast Consortium in Natural and Inoculated Fermentations.

PubMed

Bagheri, Bahareh; Bauer, Florian F; Setati, Mathabatha E

2017-01-01

Natural, also referred to as spontaneous wine fermentations, are carried out by the native microbiota of the grape juice, without inoculation of selected, industrially produced yeast or bacterial strains. Such fermentations are commonly initiated by non- Saccharomyces yeast species that numerically dominate the must. Community composition and numerical dominance of species vary significantly between individual musts, but Saccharomyces cerevisiae will in most cases dominate the late stages of the fermentation and complete the process. Nevertheless, non- Saccharomyces species contribute significantly, positively or negatively, to the character and quality of the final product. The contribution is species and strain dependent and will depend on each species or strain's absolute and relative contribution to total metabolically active biomass, and will therefore, be a function of its relative fitness within the microbial ecosystem. However, the population dynamics of multispecies fermentations are not well understood. Consequently, the oenological potential of the microbiome in any given grape must, can currently not be evaluated or predicted. To better characterize the rules that govern the complex wine microbial ecosystem, a model yeast consortium comprising eight species commonly encountered in South African grape musts and an ARISA based method to monitor their dynamics were developed and validated. The dynamics of these species were evaluated in synthetic must in the presence or absence of S. cerevisiae using direct viable counts and ARISA. The data show that S. cerevisiae specifically suppresses certain species while appearing to favor the persistence of other species. Growth dynamics in Chenin blanc grape must fermentation was monitored only through viable counts. The interactions observed in the synthetic must, were upheld in the natural must fermentations, suggesting the broad applicability of the observed ecosystem dynamics. Importantly, the presence of indigenous yeast populations did not appear to affect the broad interaction patterns between the consortium species. The data show that the wine ecosystem is characterized by both mutually supportive and inhibitory species. The current study presents a first step in the development of a model to predict the oenological potential of any given wine mycobiome.

Near-field electromagnetic holography for high-resolution analysis of network interactions in neuronal tissue

PubMed Central

Kjeldsen, Henrik D.; Kaiser, Marcus; Whittington, Miles A.

2015-01-01

Background Brain function is dependent upon the concerted, dynamical interactions between a great many neurons distributed over many cortical subregions. Current methods of quantifying such interactions are limited by consideration only of single direct or indirect measures of a subsample of all neuronal population activity. New method Here we present a new derivation of the electromagnetic analogy to near-field acoustic holography allowing high-resolution, vectored estimates of interactions between sources of electromagnetic activity that significantly improves this situation. In vitro voltage potential recordings were used to estimate pseudo-electromagnetic energy flow vector fields, current and energy source densities and energy dissipation in reconstruction planes at depth into the neural tissue parallel to the recording plane of the microelectrode array. Results The properties of the reconstructed near-field estimate allowed both the utilization of super-resolution techniques to increase the imaging resolution beyond that of the microelectrode array, and facilitated a novel approach to estimating causal relationships between activity in neocortical subregions. Comparison with existing methods The holographic nature of the reconstruction method allowed significantly better estimation of the fine spatiotemporal detail of neuronal population activity, compared with interpolation alone, beyond the spatial resolution of the electrode arrays used. Pseudo-energy flow vector mapping was possible with high temporal precision, allowing a near-realtime estimate of causal interaction dynamics. Conclusions Basic near-field electromagnetic holography provides a powerful means to increase spatial resolution from electrode array data with careful choice of spatial filters and distance to reconstruction plane. More detailed approaches may provide the ability to volumetrically reconstruct activity patterns on neuronal tissue, but the ability to extract vectored data with the method presented already permits the study of dynamic causal interactions without bias from any prior assumptions on anatomical connectivity. PMID:26026581

Near-field electromagnetic holography for high-resolution analysis of network interactions in neuronal tissue.

PubMed

Kjeldsen, Henrik D; Kaiser, Marcus; Whittington, Miles A

2015-09-30

Brain function is dependent upon the concerted, dynamical interactions between a great many neurons distributed over many cortical subregions. Current methods of quantifying such interactions are limited by consideration only of single direct or indirect measures of a subsample of all neuronal population activity. Here we present a new derivation of the electromagnetic analogy to near-field acoustic holography allowing high-resolution, vectored estimates of interactions between sources of electromagnetic activity that significantly improves this situation. In vitro voltage potential recordings were used to estimate pseudo-electromagnetic energy flow vector fields, current and energy source densities and energy dissipation in reconstruction planes at depth into the neural tissue parallel to the recording plane of the microelectrode array. The properties of the reconstructed near-field estimate allowed both the utilization of super-resolution techniques to increase the imaging resolution beyond that of the microelectrode array, and facilitated a novel approach to estimating causal relationships between activity in neocortical subregions. The holographic nature of the reconstruction method allowed significantly better estimation of the fine spatiotemporal detail of neuronal population activity, compared with interpolation alone, beyond the spatial resolution of the electrode arrays used. Pseudo-energy flow vector mapping was possible with high temporal precision, allowing a near-realtime estimate of causal interaction dynamics. Basic near-field electromagnetic holography provides a powerful means to increase spatial resolution from electrode array data with careful choice of spatial filters and distance to reconstruction plane. More detailed approaches may provide the ability to volumetrically reconstruct activity patterns on neuronal tissue, but the ability to extract vectored data with the method presented already permits the study of dynamic causal interactions without bias from any prior assumptions on anatomical connectivity. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Process-based modeling of species' responses to climate change - a proof of concept using western North American trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, M. E.; Merow, C.; Record, S.; Menlove, J.; Gray, A.; Cundiff, J.; McMahon, S.; Enquist, B. J.

2013-12-01

Current attempts to forecast how species' distributions will change in response to climate change suffer under a fundamental trade-off: between modeling many species superficially vs. few species in detail (between correlative vs. mechanistic models). The goals of this talk are two-fold: first, we present a Bayesian multilevel modeling framework, dynamic range modeling (DRM), for building process-based forecasts of many species' distributions at a time, designed to address the trade-off between detail and number of distribution forecasts. In contrast to 'species distribution modeling' or 'niche modeling', which uses only species' occurrence data and environmental data, DRMs draw upon demographic data, abundance data, trait data, occurrence data, and GIS layers of climate in a single framework to account for two processes known to influence range dynamics - demography and dispersal. The vision is to use extensive databases on plant demography, distributions, and traits - in the Botanical Information and Ecology Network, the Forest Inventory and Analysis database (FIA), and the International Tree Ring Data Bank - to develop DRMs for North American trees. Second, we present preliminary results from building the core submodel of a DRM - an integral projection model (IPM) - for a sample of dominant tree species in western North America. IPMs are used to infer demographic niches - i.e., the set of environmental conditions under which population growth rate is positive - and project population dynamics through time. Based on >550,000 data points derived from FIA for nine tree species in western North America, we show IPM-based models of their current and future distributions, and discuss how IPMs can be used to forecast future forest productivity, mortality patterns, and inform efforts at assisted migration.

Genomic differentiation and demographic histories of Atlantic and Indo-Pacific yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) populations.

PubMed

Barth, J M I; Damerau, M; Matschiner, M; Jentoft, S; Hanel, R

2017-04-13

Recent developments in the field of genomics have provided new and powerful insights into population structure and dynamics that are essential for the conservation of biological diversity. As a commercially highly valuable species, the yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) is intensely exploited throughout its distribution in tropical oceans around the world, and is currently classified as near threatened. However, conservation efforts for this species have so far been hampered by limited knowledge of its population structure, due to incongruent results of previous investigations. Here, we use whole-genome sequencing in concert with a draft genome assembly to decipher the global population structure of the yellowfin tuna, and to investigate its demographic history. We detect significant differentiation of Atlantic and Indo-Pacific yellowfin tuna populations as well as the possibility of a third diverged yellowfin tuna group in the Arabian Sea. We further observe evidence for past population expansion as well as asymmetric gene flow from the Indo-Pacific to the Atlantic. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

How Does a Divided Population Respond to Change?

PubMed Central

Qubbaj, Murad R.; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Aggarwal, Rimjhim M.; Anderies, John M.

2015-01-01

Most studies on the response of socioeconomic systems to a sudden shift focus on long-term equilibria or end points. Such narrow focus forgoes many valuable insights. Here we examine the transient dynamics of regime shift on a divided population, exemplified by societies divided ideologically, politically, economically, or technologically. Replicator dynamics is used to investigate the complex transient dynamics of the population response. Though simple, our modeling approach exhibits a surprisingly rich and diverse array of dynamics. Our results highlight the critical roles played by diversity in strategies and the magnitude of the shift. Importantly, it allows for a variety of strategies to arise organically as an integral part of the transient dynamics—as opposed to an independent process—of population response to a regime shift, providing a link between the population's past and future diversity patterns. Several combinations of different populations' strategy distributions and shifts were systematically investigated. Such rich dynamics highlight the challenges of anticipating the response of a divided population to a change. The findings in this paper can potentially improve our understanding of a wide range of socio-ecological and technological transitions. PMID:26161859

High population variability and source-sink dynamics in a solitary bee species.

PubMed

Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

2013-06-01

Although solitary bees are considered to play key roles in ecosystem functions, surprisingly few studies have explored their population dynamics. We investigated the population dynamics of a rare, declining, solitary bee (Andrena humilis) in a landscape of 80 km2 in southern Sweden from 2003 to 2011. Only one population was persistent throughout all years studied; most likely this population supplied the surrounding landscape with 11 smaller, temporary local populations. Despite stable pollen availability, the size of the persistent population fluctuated dramatically in a two-year cycle over the nine years, with 490-1230 nests in odd-numbered years and 21-48 nests in even-numbered years. These fluctuations were not significantly related to climatic variables or pollen availability. Nineteen colonization and 14 extinction events were recorded. Occupancy decreased with distance from the persistent population and increased with increasing resource (pollen) availability. There were significant positive correlations between the size of the persistent population and patch occupancy and colonization. Colonizations were generally more common in patches closer to the persistent population, whereas extinctions were independent of distance from the persistent population. Our results highlight the complex population dynamics that exist for this solitary bee species, which could be due to source-sink dynamics, a prolonged diapause, or can represent a bet-hedging strategy to avoid natural enemies and survive in small habitat patches. If large fluctuations in solitary bee populations prove to be widespread, it will have important implications for interpreting ecological relationships, bee conservation, and pollination.

[Demography of Mexico City. The same problems with less population].

PubMed

Camposortega Cruz, S

1991-01-01

The Mexico City metropolitan area currently extends over 4451.2 sq km, completely covering the Federal District and 27 municipios in the state of Mexico. The current population of the Mexico City metropolitan area is estimated at about 16.1 million and its growth rate at approximately 2%/year. The crude birth rate is 24/1000 and the crude death rate 6/1000. The metropolitan Mexico City population represents 18.6% of the total Mexican population. Mexico's other large cities fall far behind in total population, Guadalajara with 3.16 million, Monterrey with 2.77 million, and Puebla with 1.5 million. Mexico City is 1 of the 5 largest cities of the world. Estimates of the current Mexico City population differ substantially from projections completed in the 1980s, which calculated populations of 19-22 million. The explanation of the difference lies primarily in overestimation of the metropolitan population in the 1980 census, the basis for the projections. Preliminary data from the 1990 census, data from the 1987 National Fertility and Health Survey, vital statistics, and some data on internal migration allow a preliminary correction of calculations relating to Mexico's population dynamics. During the 20th century, Mexico City's population has grown from 345,000 in 1900 to 1,029,000 in 1930, 3,136,000 in 1950, 9,045,000 in 1970, and 15,785,000 in 1990. The most rapid growth occurred in 1930-70, when the population grew by more than 5% annually. The growth rate declined to 3.65% between 1970-80 and according to preliminary estimated to 1.92% in 1980-90. Factors explaining the declining growth rate may include the fertility decline in Mexico City, reorientation of migration away from Mexico City and toward inntermediate cities with under 1 million inhabitants, and departures from Mexico City caused by the 1985 earthquakes, private and public decentralization policies, pollution, and other factos which have reduced the attractiveness of the capital. The reevised calculations suggest that Mexico City's population will not reach 20 million until early in the 21st century. Although demographic pressure on Mexico City is thus reduced, it is by no means eliminated, given that current needs are only partially being met. It is estimated for example that Mexico City requires 6.3 million jobs, but only 6.1 million are available, of which 1.1 million pay less than the minimum wage.

Density dependence in group dynamics of a highly social mongoose, Suricata suricatta.

PubMed

Bateman, Andrew W; Ozgul, Arpat; Coulson, Tim; Clutton-Brock, Tim H

2012-05-01

1. For social species, the link between individual behaviour and population dynamics is mediated by group-level demography. 2. Populations of obligate cooperative breeders are structured into social groups, which may be subject to inverse density dependence (Allee effects) that result from a dependence on conspecific helpers, but evidence for population-wide Allee effects is rare. 3. We use field data from a long-term study of cooperative meerkats (Suricata suricatta; Schreber, 1776) - a species for which local Allee effects are not reflected in population-level dynamics - to empirically model interannual group dynamics. 4. Using phenomenological population models, modified to incorporate environmental conditions and potential Allee effects, we first investigate overall patterns of group dynamics and find support only for conventional density dependence that increases after years of low rainfall. 5. To explain the observed patterns, we examine specific demographic rates and assess their contributions to overall group dynamics. Although per-capita meerkat mortality is subject to a component Allee effect, it contributes relatively little to observed variation in group dynamics, and other (conventionally density dependent) demographic rates - especially emigration - govern group dynamics. 6. Our findings highlight the need to consider demographic processes and density dependence in subpopulations before drawing conclusions about how behaviour affects population processes in socially complex systems. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Mitochondrial dynamics in Parkinson's disease

PubMed Central

Van Laar, Victor S.; Berman, Sarah B.

2009-01-01

The unique energy demands of neurons require well-orchestrated distribution and maintenance of mitochondria. Thus, dynamic properties of mitochondria, including fission, fusion, trafficking, biogenesis, and degradation, are critical to all cells, but may be particularly important in neurons. Dysfunction in mitochondrial dynamics has been linked to neuropathies and is increasingly being linked to several neurodegenerative diseases, but the evidence is particularly strong, and continuously accumulating, in Parkinson's disease (PD). The unique characteristics of neurons that degenerate in PD may predispose those neuronal populations to susceptibility to alterations in mitochondrial dynamics. In addition, evidence from PD-related toxins supports that mitochondrial fission, fusion, and transport may be involved in pathogenesis. Furthermore, rapidly increasing evidence suggests that two proteins linked to familial forms of the disease, parkin and PINK1, interact in a common pathway to regulate mitochondrial fission/fusion. Parkin may also play a role in maintaining mitochondrial homeostasis through targeting damaged mitochondria for mitophagy. Taken together, the current data suggests that mitochondrial dynamics may play a role in PD pathogenesis, and a better understanding of mitochondrial dynamics within the neuron may lead to future therapeutic treatments for PD, potentially aimed at some of the earliest pathogenic events. PMID:19332061

Operationalizing sustainability in urban coastal systems: a system dynamics analysis.

PubMed

Mavrommati, Georgia; Bithas, Kostas; Panayiotidis, Panayiotis

2013-12-15

We propose a system dynamics approach for Ecologically Sustainable Development (ESD) in urban coastal systems. A systematic analysis based on theoretical considerations, policy analysis and experts' knowledge is followed in order to define the concept of ESD. The principles underlying ESD feed the development of a System Dynamics Model (SDM) that connects the pollutant loads produced by urban systems' socioeconomic activities with the ecological condition of the coastal ecosystem that it is delineated in operational terms through key biological elements defined by the EU Water Framework Directive. The receiving waters of the Athens Metropolitan area, which bears the elements of typical high population density Mediterranean coastal city but which currently has also new dynamics induced by the ongoing financial crisis, are used as an experimental system for testing a system dynamics approach to apply the concept of ESD. Systems' thinking is employed to represent the complex relationships among the components of the system. Interconnections and dependencies that determine the potentials for achieving ESD are revealed. The proposed system dynamics analysis can facilitate decision makers to define paths of development that comply with the principles of ESD. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population dynamics and environmental degradation in Nepal: an interpretation.

PubMed

Karki, Y B

1993-01-01

This paper examines the special problems that are faced by developing countries, specifically Nepal, which have to sustain increasing populations from a depleting natural resource base. Nepal is an example of a developing country where fertility is high and mortality is decreasing fast, resulting in a high rate of population growth. Nepal's rapid population growth has had a significant impact on natural resource depletion and consequently, environmental degradation. The case of Nepal demonstrates the difficulties confronting developing countries, which attempt practical implementation of the population policy guidelines set out in Agenda 21. Past and current population programs in this country have failed to address the population problem as multidimensional, and have failed to encourage grassroots participation. Economic stagnation and poverty encourage a large family size, and are delaying declines in fertility which subsequently leads to high land encroachment and fast depletion of natural resources like forests and water. The government needs to implement an integrated, multidimensional approach, which emphasizes literacy, education, lowering infant mortality, and providing contraceptives along with follow-ups. Finally, the greatest action must consist of fostering a higher rate of planned economic and social development that must be shown to have meaning for, and impact on the population in general.

Consumer-Resource Dynamics: Quantity, Quality, and Allocation

PubMed Central

Getz, Wayne M.; Owen-Smith, Norman

2011-01-01

Background The dominant paradigm for modeling the complexities of interacting populations and food webs is a system of coupled ordinary differential equations in which the state of each species, population, or functional trophic group is represented by an aggregated numbers-density or biomass-density variable. Here, using the metaphysiological approach to model consumer-resource interactions, we formulate a two-state paradigm that represents each population or group in a food web in terms of both its quantity and quality. Methodology and Principal Findings The formulation includes an allocation function controlling the relative proportion of extracted resources to increasing quantity versus elevating quality. Since lower quality individuals senesce more rapidly than higher quality individuals, an optimal allocation proportion exists and we derive an expression for how this proportion depends on population parameters that determine the senescence rate, the per-capita mortality rate, and the effects of these rates on the dynamics of the quality variable. We demonstrate that oscillations do not arise in our model from quantity-quality interactions alone, but require consumer-resource interactions across trophic levels that can be stabilized through judicious resource allocation strategies. Analysis and simulations provide compelling arguments for the necessity of populations to evolve quality-related dynamics in the form of maternal effects, storage or other appropriate structures. They also indicate that resource allocation switching between investments in abundance versus quality provide a powerful mechanism for promoting the stability of consumer-resource interactions in seasonally forcing environments. Conclusions/Significance Our simulations show that physiological inefficiencies associated with this switching can be favored by selection due to the diminished exposure of inefficient consumers to strong oscillations associated with the well-known paradox of enrichment. Also our results demonstrate how allocation switching can explain observed growth patterns in experimental microbial cultures and discuss how our formulation can address questions that cannot be answered using the quantity-only paradigms that currently predominate. PMID:21283752

Comparative phylogeny and historical perspectives on population genetics of the Pacific hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) and green turtles (Chelonia mydas), inferred from feeding populations in the Yaeyama Islands, Japan.

PubMed

Nishizawa, Hideaki; Okuyama, Junichi; Kobayashi, Masato; Abe, Osamu; Arai, Nobuaki

2010-01-01

Mitochondrial DNA sequence polymorphisms and patterns of genetic diversity represent the genealogy and relative impacts of historical, geographic, and demographic events on populations. In this study, historical patterns of population dynamics and differentiation in hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) and green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in the Pacific were estimated from feeding populations in the Yaeyama Islands, Japan. Phylogenetic relationships of the haplotypes indicated that hawksbill and green turtles in the Pacific probably underwent very similar patterns and processes of population dynamics over the last million years, with population subdivision during the early Pleistocene and population expansion after the last glacial maximum. These significant contemporary historical events were suggested to have been caused by climatic and sea-level fluctuations. On the other hand, comparing our results to long-term population dynamics in the Atlantic, population subdivisions during the early Pleistocene were specific to Pacific hawksbill and green turtles. Therefore, regional differences in historical population dynamics are suggested. Despite limited sampling locations, these results are the first step in estimating the historical trends in Pacific sea turtles by using phylogenetics and population genetics.

Fifty-sixth Christmas Bird Count. 147. Southern Dorchester County, Md

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, F.A.; Williams, B.K.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Kendall, W.L.; Smith, G.W.; Caithamer, David F.

1956-01-01

Summary and Recommendations: We suggest that managers are approaching the limits of their ability to improve waterfowl harvest management, primarily because the information needed to make better decisions is being sacrificed by the current approach to setting regulations. We propose an actively adaptive management strategy in which regulatory decisions play a dominant role in reducing uncertainty about population dynamics. The proposed strategy recognizes 'value' in acquiring knowledge only to the extent that it contributes to the objective of optimizing harvests. To implement this strategy, managers will need: (1) a set of regulatory options, with possible constraints on their use; (2) quantifiable harvest management objectives; (3) a set of models that represent an array of meaningful hypotheses about the effects of regulations on populations; and (4) a measure of credibility (or likelihood) for each model, which can be updated regularly using information from waterfowl monitoring programs. Adaptive optimization is an iterative process in which the harvest-management policy converges over time to one that maximizes harvest under the most appropriate model. At each time step, an optimal regulatory decision is identified based on the state of the system and the model likelihoods. In the next time step, predicted population changes from the alternative models are compared with the actual changes provided by the monitoring program, The likelihoods are increased or decreased to the extent that predicted and actual population changes correspond. These updated likelihoods then are used in setting regulations in the next cycle and the process begins again. This iterative process produces the most informative regulations when uncertainty is prevalent and produces maximum sustainable yields as uncertainty is eliminated. We see no major obstacles to implementing this adaptive strategy, although there are a number of practical considerations. First and foremost, managers should assess the 'value' of learning. Only when there is a high degree of uncertainty about the effects of hunting regulations on population dynamics will the merit of our proposed strategy be evident. We suggest that this almost always will be true given our current understanding of the relationship between annual regulations, survival and population growth in waterfowl. Nonetheless, careful consideration should be given to formulating the set of alternative models. There is no value in distinguishing between models which differ in their mathematical formulation or biological realism, but which suggest similar harvest strategies. We suspect that 'mechanistic' models (i.e., those that attempt to capture the essence of biological processes) will make better candidates for model sets than so-called 'phenomenological' models. Assuming that all model sets include a good approximation of reality, learning rates will be dependent on the quality of monitoring programs. Fortunately, a variety of high-quality monitoring plans for many duck and goose populations of North America, when used with our adaptive approach, should provide new knowledge about population dynamics and response to hunting, and, thus, lead to improved management.

Individual movement behavior, matrix heterogeneity, and the dynamics of spatially structured populations.

PubMed

Revilla, Eloy; Wiegand, Thorsten

2008-12-09

The dynamics of spatially structured populations is characterized by within- and between-patch processes. The available theory describes the latter with simple distance-dependent functions that depend on landscape properties such as interpatch distance or patch size. Despite its potential role, we lack a good mechanistic understanding of how the movement of individuals between patches affects the dynamics of these populations. We used the theoretical framework provided by movement ecology to make a direct representation of the processes determining how individuals connect local populations in a spatially structured population of Iberian lynx. Interpatch processes depended on the heterogeneity of the matrix where patches are embedded and the parameters defining individual movement behavior. They were also very sensitive to the dynamic demographic variables limiting the time moving, the within-patch dynamics of available settlement sites (both spatiotemporally heterogeneous) and the response of individuals to the perceived risk while moving. These context-dependent dynamic factors are an inherent part of the movement process, producing connectivities and dispersal kernels whose variability is affected by other demographic processes. Mechanistic representations of interpatch movements, such as the one provided by the movement-ecology framework, permit the dynamic interaction of birth-death processes and individual movement behavior, thus improving our understanding of stochastic spatially structured populations.

Dynamic neural networking as a basis for plasticity in the control of heart rate.

PubMed

Kember, G; Armour, J A; Zamir, M

2013-01-21

A model is proposed in which the relationship between individual neurons within a neural network is dynamically changing to the effect of providing a measure of "plasticity" in the control of heart rate. The neural network on which the model is based consists of three populations of neurons residing in the central nervous system, the intrathoracic extracardiac nervous system, and the intrinsic cardiac nervous system. This hierarchy of neural centers is used to challenge the classical view that the control of heart rate, a key clinical index, resides entirely in central neuronal command (spinal cord, medulla oblongata, and higher centers). Our results indicate that dynamic networking allows for the possibility of an interplay among the three populations of neurons to the effect of altering the order of control of heart rate among them. This interplay among the three levels of control allows for different neural pathways for the control of heart rate to emerge under different blood flow demands or disease conditions and, as such, it has significant clinical implications because current understanding and treatment of heart rate anomalies are based largely on a single level of control and on neurons acting in unison as a single entity rather than individually within a (plastically) interconnected network. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Landscape Pattern Determines Neighborhood Size and Structure within a Lizard Population

PubMed Central

Ryberg, Wade A.; Hill, Michael T.; Painter, Charles W.; Fitzgerald, Lee A.

2013-01-01

Although defining population structure according to discrete habitat patches is convenient for metapopulation theories, taking this approach may overlook structure within populations continuously distributed across landscapes. For example, landscape features within habitat patches direct the movement of organisms and define the density distribution of individuals, which can generate spatial structure and localized dynamics within populations as well as among them. Here, we use the neighborhood concept, which describes population structure relative to the scale of individual movements, to illustrate how localized dynamics within a population of lizards (Sceloporus arenicolus) arise in response to variation in landscape pattern within a continuous habitat patch. Our results emphasize links between individual movements at small scales and the emergence of spatial structure within populations which resembles metapopulation dynamics at larger scales. We conclude that population dynamics viewed in a landscape context must consider the explicit distribution and movement of individuals within continuous habitat as well as among habitat patches. PMID:23441217

Population and Environment

PubMed Central

de Sherbinin, Alex; Carr, David; Cassels, Susan; Jiang, Leiwen

2009-01-01

The interactions between human population dynamics and the environment have often been viewed mechanistically. This review elucidates the complexities and contextual specificities of population-environment relationships in a number of domains. It explores the ways in which demographers and other social scientists have sought to understand the relationships among a full range of population dynamics (e.g., population size, growth, density, age and sex composition, migration, urbanization, vital rates) and environmental changes. The chapter briefly reviews a number of the theories for understanding population and the environment and then proceeds to provide a state-of-the-art review of studies that have examined population dynamics and their relationship to five environmental issue areas. The review concludes by relating population-environment research to emerging work on human-environment systems. PMID:20011237

Antagonisms, mutualisms and commensalisms affect outbreak dynamics of the southern pine beetle

Treesearch

Richard W. Hofstetter; James T. Cronin; Kier D. Klepzig; John C. Moser; Matthew P. Ayres

2005-01-01

Feedback from community interactions involving mutualisms are a rarely explored mechanism for generating complex population dynamics. We examined the effects of two linked mutualisms on the population dynamics of a beetle that exhibits outbreak dynamics. One mutualism involves an obligate association between the bark beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis...

Altitudinal migration and the future of an iconic Hawaiian honeycreeper in response to climate change and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guillaumet, Alban; Kuntz, Wendy A.; Samuel, Michael D.; Paxton, Eben H.

2017-01-01

Altitudinal movement by tropical birds to track seasonally variable resources can move them from protected areas to areas of increased vulnerability. In Hawaiʻi, historical reports suggest that many Hawaiian honeycreepers such as the ‘I‘iwi (Drepanis coccinea) once undertook seasonal migrations, but the existence of such movements today is unclear. Because Hawaiian honeycreepers are highly susceptible to avian malaria, currently minimal in high-elevation forests, understanding the degree to which honeycreepers visit lower elevation forests may be critical to predict the current impact of malaria on population dynamics and how susceptible bird populations may respond to climate change and mitigation scenarios. Using radio telemetry data, we demonstrate for the first time that a large fraction of breeding adult and juvenile ‘I‘iwi originating from an upper-elevation (1,920 m) population at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge exhibit post-breeding movements well below the upper elevational limit for mosquitoes. Bloom data suggest seasonal variation in floral resources is the primary driver of seasonal movement for ‘I‘iwi. To understand the demographic implications of such movement, we developed a spatial individual-based model calibrated using previously published and original data. ʻI‘iwi dynamics were simulated backward in time, to estimate population levels in the absence of avian malaria, and forward in time, to assess the impact of climate warming as well as two potential mitigation actions. Even in disease-free ‘refuge’ populations, we found that breeding densities failed to reach the estimated carrying capacity, suggesting the existence of a seasonal “migration load” as a result of travel to disease-prevalent areas. We predict that ‘I‘iwi may be on the verge of extinction in 2100, with the total number of pairs reaching only ~ 0.2–12.3% of the estimated pre-malaria density, based on an optimistic climate change scenario. The probability of extinction of ‘I‘iwi populations, as measured by population estimates for 2100, is strongly related to their estimated migration propensity. Long-term conservation strategies likely will require a multi-pronged response including a reduction of malaria threats, habitat restoration and continued landscape-level access to seasonally variable nectar resources.

Interactions between demography and environmental effects are important determinants of population dynamics

PubMed Central

Gamelon, Marlène; Grøtan, Vidar; Nilsson, Anna L. K.; Engen, Steinar; Hurrell, James W.; Jerstad, Kurt; Phillips, Adam S.; Røstad, Ole W.; Slagsvold, Tore; Walseng, Bjørn; Stenseth, Nils C.; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2017-01-01

Climate change will affect the population dynamics of many species, yet the consequences for the long-term persistence of populations are poorly understood. A major reason for this is that density-dependent feedback effects caused by fluctuations in population size are considered independent of stochastic variation in the environment. We show that an interplay between winter temperature and population density can influence the persistence of a small passerine population under global warming. Although warmer winters favor an increased mean population size, density-dependent feedback can cause the local population to be less buffered against occasional poor environmental conditions (cold winters). This shows that it is essential to go beyond the population size and explore climate effects on the full dynamics to elaborate targeted management actions. PMID:28164157

Accaleration of Electrons of the Outer Electron Radiation Belt and Auroral Oval Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antonova, Elizaveta; Ovchinnikov, Ilya; Riazantseva, Maria; Znatkova, Svetlana; Pulinets, Maria; Vorobjev, Viachislav; Yagodkina, Oksana; Stepanova, Marina

2016-07-01

We summarize the results of experimental observations demonstrating the role of auroral processes in the formation of the outer electron radiation belt and magnetic field distortion during magnetic storms. We show that the auroral oval does not mapped to the plasma sheet proper (region with magnetic field lines stretched in the tailward direction). It is mapped to the surrounding the Earth plasma ring in which transverse currents are closed inside the magnetosphere. Such currents constitute the high latitude continuation of the ordinary ring current. Mapping of the auroral oval to the region of high latitude continuation of the ordinary ring current explains the ring like shape of the auroral oval with finite thickness near noon and auroral oval dynamics during magnetic storms. The auroral oval shift to low latitudes during storms. The development of the ring current produce great distortion of the Earth's magnetic field and corresponding adiabatic variations of relativistic electron fluxes. Development of the asymmetric ring current produce the dawn-dusk asymmetry of such fluxes. We analyze main features of the observed processes including formation of sharp plasma pressure profiles during storms. The nature of observed pressure peak is analyzed. It is shown that the observed sharp pressure peak is directly connected with the creation of the seed population of relativistic electrons. The possibility to predict the position of new radiation belt during recovery phase of the magnetic storm using data of low orbiting and ground based observations is demonstrated.

Population Dynamics and Flight Phenology Model of Codling Moth Differ between Commercial and Abandoned Apple Orchard Ecosystems.

PubMed

Joshi, Neelendra K; Rajotte, Edwin G; Naithani, Kusum J; Krawczyk, Greg; Hull, Larry A

2016-01-01

Apple orchard management practices may affect development and phenology of arthropod pests, such as the codling moth (CM), Cydia pomonella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), which is a serious internal fruit-feeding pest of apples worldwide. Estimating population dynamics and accurately predicting the timing of CM development and phenology events (for instance, adult flight, and egg-hatch) allows growers to understand and control local populations of CM. Studies were conducted to compare the CM flight phenology in commercial and abandoned apple orchard ecosystems using a logistic function model based on degree-days accumulation. The flight models for these orchards were derived from the cumulative percent moth capture using two types of commercially available CM lure baited traps. Models from both types of orchards were also compared to another model known as PETE (prediction extension timing estimator) that was developed in 1970s to predict life cycle events for many fruit pests including CM across different fruit growing regions of the United States. We found that the flight phenology of CM was significantly different in commercial and abandoned orchards. CM male flight patterns for first and second generations as predicted by the constrained and unconstrained PCM (Pennsylvania Codling Moth) models in commercial and abandoned orchards were different than the flight patterns predicted by the currently used CM model (i.e., PETE model). In commercial orchards, during the first and second generations, the PCM unconstrained model predicted delays in moth emergence compared to current model. In addition, the flight patterns of females were different between commercial and abandoned orchards. Such differences in CM flight phenology between commercial and abandoned orchard ecosystems suggest potential impact of orchard environment and crop management practices on CM biology.

Population Dynamics and Flight Phenology Model of Codling Moth Differ between Commercial and Abandoned Apple Orchard Ecosystems

PubMed Central

Joshi, Neelendra K.; Rajotte, Edwin G.; Naithani, Kusum J.; Krawczyk, Greg; Hull, Larry A.

2016-01-01

Apple orchard management practices may affect development and phenology of arthropod pests, such as the codling moth (CM), Cydia pomonella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), which is a serious internal fruit-feeding pest of apples worldwide. Estimating population dynamics and accurately predicting the timing of CM development and phenology events (for instance, adult flight, and egg-hatch) allows growers to understand and control local populations of CM. Studies were conducted to compare the CM flight phenology in commercial and abandoned apple orchard ecosystems using a logistic function model based on degree-days accumulation. The flight models for these orchards were derived from the cumulative percent moth capture using two types of commercially available CM lure baited traps. Models from both types of orchards were also compared to another model known as PETE (prediction extension timing estimator) that was developed in 1970s to predict life cycle events for many fruit pests including CM across different fruit growing regions of the United States. We found that the flight phenology of CM was significantly different in commercial and abandoned orchards. CM male flight patterns for first and second generations as predicted by the constrained and unconstrained PCM (Pennsylvania Codling Moth) models in commercial and abandoned orchards were different than the flight patterns predicted by the currently used CM model (i.e., PETE model). In commercial orchards, during the first and second generations, the PCM unconstrained model predicted delays in moth emergence compared to current model. In addition, the flight patterns of females were different between commercial and abandoned orchards. Such differences in CM flight phenology between commercial and abandoned orchard ecosystems suggest potential impact of orchard environment and crop management practices on CM biology. PMID:27713702

Energized Oxygen : Speiser Current Sheet Bifurcation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

George, D. E.; Jahn, J. M.

2017-12-01

A single population of energized Oxygen (O+) is shown to produce a cross-tail bifurcated current sheet in 2.5D PIC simulations of the magnetotail without the influence of magnetic reconnection. Treatment of oxygen in simulations of space plasmas, specifically a magnetotail current sheet, has been limited to thermal energies despite observations of and mechanisms which explain energized ions. We performed simulations of a homogeneous oxygen background, that has been energized in a physically appropriate manner, to study the behavior of current sheets and magnetic reconnection, specifically their bifurcation. This work uses a 2.5D explicit Particle-In-a-Cell (PIC) code to investigate the dynamics of energized heavy ions as they stream Dawn-to-Dusk in the magnetotail current sheet. We present a simulation study dealing with the response of a current sheet system to energized oxygen ions. We establish a, well known and studied, 2-species GEM Challenge Harris current sheet as a starting point. This system is known to eventually evolve and produce magnetic reconnection upon thinning of the current sheet. We added a uniform distribution of thermal O+ to the background. This 3-species system is also known to eventually evolve and produce magnetic reconnection. We add one additional variable to the system by providing an initial duskward velocity to energize the O+. We also traced individual particle motion within the PIC simulation. Three main results are shown. First, energized dawn- dusk streaming ions are clearly seen to exhibit sustained Speiser motion. Second, a single population of heavy ions clearly produces a stable bifurcated current sheet. Third, magnetic reconnection is not required to produce the bifurcated current sheet. Finally a bifurcated current sheet is compatible with the Harris current sheet model. This work is the first step in a series of investigations aimed at studying the effects of energized heavy ions on magnetic reconnection. This work differs significantly from previous investigations involving heavy ions in that they are energized as opposed to being simply thermal. This is a variation based firmly on published in-situ measurements. It also differs in that a complete population is used as opposed to simply test particles in a magnetic field model.

Modeling the lag period and exponential growth of Listeria monocytogenes under conditions of fluctuating temperature and water activity values.

PubMed

Muñoz-Cuevas, Marina; Fernández, Pablo S; George, Susan; Pin, Carmen

2010-05-01

The dynamic model for the growth of a bacterial population described by Baranyi and Roberts (J. Baranyi and T. A. Roberts, Int. J. Food Microbiol. 23:277-294, 1994) was applied to model the lag period and exponential growth of Listeria monocytogenes under conditions of fluctuating temperature and water activity (a(w)) values. To model the duration of the lag phase, the dependence of the parameter h(0), which quantifies the amount of work done during the lag period, on the previous and current environmental conditions was determined experimentally. This parameter depended not only on the magnitude of the change between the previous and current environmental conditions but also on the current growth conditions. In an exponentially growing population, any change in the environment requiring a certain amount of work to adapt to the new conditions initiated a lag period that lasted until that work was finished. Observations for several scenarios in which exponential growth was halted by a sudden change in the temperature and/or a(w) were in good agreement with predictions. When a population already in a lag period was subjected to environmental fluctuations, the system was reset with a new lag phase. The work to be done during the new lag phase was estimated to be the workload due to the environmental change plus the unfinished workload from the uncompleted previous lag phase.

Soybean Yield and Heterodera glycines Population Dynamics as Affected by Cultural Practices in Major Production Areas of the United States and Canada

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Little information is available on the interactive effects of tillage and row spacing on yield of soybean and population dynamics of H. glycines. This study investigated the effects of rotation of soybean and corn, tillage, row spacing, and cultivar on yield of soybean and population dynamics of H. ...

Stand development and population dynamics of curlleaf mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus ledifolius Nutt.) woodlands in Utah's Bear River Mountains

Treesearch

Seth A. Ex; Robert DeRose; James N. Long

2011-01-01

Curlleaf mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus ledifolius Nutt.) is a little-studied woodland tree that occurs in pure stands throughout the Intermountain West. Stand development and population dynamics of this species are poorly understood, despite their relevance to management. We describe here the development of stand age structures and population dynamics of mahogany...

Strong optical field ionisation of solids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, C. R.; Ben Taher, A.; Brabec, T.

2017-11-01

Population transfer from the valence to conduction band in the presence of an intense laser field is explored theoretically in semiconductors and dielectrics. Experiments performed on dielectrics exposed to an intense laser field have divulged a population dynamics between valence and conduction band that differs from that observed in semiconductors. Our paper explores two aspects of ionisation in solids. (i) Contemporary ionisation theories do not take account of the coupling between the valence and conduction bands resulting in the absence the dynamic Stark shift. Our single-particle analysis identifies the absence of the dynamic Stark shift as a possible cause for the contrasting ionisation behaviours observed in dielectric and semiconductor materials. The dynamic Stark shift results in an increased bandgap as the laser intensity is increased. This suppresses ionisation to an extent where the main population dynamics results from virtual oscillations in the conduction band population. The dynamic Stark shift mainly affects larger bandgap materials which can be exposed to decidedly higher laser intensities. (ii) In the presence of laser dressed virtual population of the conduction band, elastic collisions potentially transmute virtual into real population resulting in ionisation. This process is explored in the context of the relaxation time approximation.

A Theoretical Approach to Understanding Population Dynamics with Seasonal Developmental Durations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lou, Yijun; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2017-04-01

There is a growing body of biological investigations to understand impacts of seasonally changing environmental conditions on population dynamics in various research fields such as single population growth and disease transmission. On the other side, understanding the population dynamics subject to seasonally changing weather conditions plays a fundamental role in predicting the trends of population patterns and disease transmission risks under the scenarios of climate change. With the host-macroparasite interaction as a motivating example, we propose a synthesized approach for investigating the population dynamics subject to seasonal environmental variations from theoretical point of view, where the model development, basic reproduction ratio formulation and computation, and rigorous mathematical analysis are involved. The resultant model with periodic delay presents a novel term related to the rate of change of the developmental duration, bringing new challenges to dynamics analysis. By investigating a periodic semiflow on a suitably chosen phase space, the global dynamics of a threshold type is established: all solutions either go to zero when basic reproduction ratio is less than one, or stabilize at a positive periodic state when the reproduction ratio is greater than one. The synthesized approach developed here is applicable to broader contexts of investigating biological systems with seasonal developmental durations.

Genetic diversity of Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains isolated in Algeria: Results of spoligotyping.

PubMed

Ifticene, Malika; Kaïdi, Saïd; Khechiba, Mesbah-Mounir; Yala, Djamel; Boulahbal, Fadila

2015-12-01

Molecular typing tools, including spoligotyping, are currently widely used in the monitoring and study of the dynamics of tuberculosis epidemics. A study of the molecular profile of a sample of 129 Myobacterium tuberculosis strains isolated during 2011 was carried out in the National Reference Laboratory for Tuberculosis and Mycobacteria at the Pasteur Institute of Algeria. This sample was selected at random from a set of 350 strains isolated from tuberculosis patients from central and eastern areas of the country. Genotypic analysis helped to clarify the frequencies of the different genotypes in the current study population: H family, 29%; LAM family, 26%; T family, 25%; S family, 5%, and other genomic families, including orphan strains, 15%. The study of strains isolated between January and December 2011 has allowed insight into the frequency of different genomic families and the importance of existing clusters in the population of central and eastern Algeria. Copyright © 2015 Asian African Society for Mycobacteriology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wildfire smoke exposure and human health: Significant gaps in research for a growing public health issue.

PubMed

Black, Carolyn; Tesfaigzi, Yohannes; Bassein, Jed A; Miller, Lisa A

2017-10-01

Understanding the effect of wildfire smoke exposure on human health represents a unique interdisciplinary challenge to the scientific community. Population health studies indicate that wildfire smoke is a risk to human health and increases the healthcare burden of smoke-impacted areas. However, wildfire smoke composition is complex and dynamic, making characterization and modeling difficult. Furthermore, current efforts to study the effect of wildfire smoke are limited by availability of air quality measures and inconsistent air quality reporting among researchers. To help address these issues, we conducted a substantive review of wildfire smoke effects on population health, wildfire smoke exposure in occupational health, and experimental wood smoke exposure. Our goal was to evaluate the current literature on wildfire smoke and highlight important gaps in research. In particular we emphasize long-term health effects of wildfire smoke, recovery following wildfire smoke exposure, and health consequences of exposure in children. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Current Status of Palliative Care, Education, and Research

PubMed Central

Grant, Marcia; Elk, Ronit; Ferrell, Betty; Morrison, R. Sean; von Gunten, Charles F.

2010-01-01

Palliative and end-of-life care is changing in the United States. This dynamic field is improving the care for patients with serious and life-threatening cancer through creation of national guidelines for quality care, multidisciplinary educational offerings, research endeavors, and resources made available to clinicians. Barriers to implementing quality palliative care across cancer populations include a rapidly expanding population of older adults who will need cancer care and a decrease in the workforce available to give care. Ways to integrate current palliative care knowledge into care of patients include multidisciplinary national education and research endeavors, and clinician resources. Acceptance of palliative care as a recognized medical specialty provides a valuable resource for improvement of care. While the evidence base for palliative care is only beginning, national research support has assisted in providing support to build the knowledge foundation for appropriate palliative care. Opportunities are available for clinicians to understand and apply appropriate palliative and end-of-life care to patients with serious and life-threatening cancers. PMID:19729681

Dancing to the rhythms of the Pleistocene? Early Middle Paleolithic population dynamics in NW Iberia (Duero Basin and Cantabrian Region)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez Yustos, Policarpo; Diez Martín, Fernando

2015-08-01

The Northwest of Iberia has yielded one of the most complete European Middle Paleolithic records. Despite this wealth of information, very little is known about population dynamics during this period. For that reason, the main concern of this paper is to provide socio-environmental models that may help explain Early Middle Paleolithic (EMP) population dynamics in NW Iberia, assessing to what extent they were shaped by climate forces. The archaeological record is analyzed on the basis of the heuristics of ecological models, already employed in the European Pleistocene record but never at a regional scale, in order to detect long-term changes in the composition of EMP populations, and the environmental, biological and sociocultural process influencing those changes. According to the models proposed, we have detected a long-term population dynamic between MIS 11 and MIS 6, characterized by low environmental stress, high biological productivity, interaction among populations and sociocultural complexity. Eventually, this population dynamic was broken due to an extreme climate phase in late MIS 6 that had a profound impact on populations and sociocultural structures. As a result, the Upper Pleistocene population of NW Iberia was concentrated in the Cantabrian region. This area became an isolated Neanderthal glacial refugium that hosted a population with different origins and fragile long-term demographic stability.

Angle imaging: Advances and challenges

PubMed Central

Quek, Desmond T L; Nongpiur, Monisha E; Perera, Shamira A; Aung, Tin

2011-01-01

Primary angle closure glaucoma (PACG) is a major form of glaucoma in large populous countries in East and South Asia. The high visual morbidity from PACG is related to the destructive nature of the asymptomatic form of the disease. Early detection of anatomically narrow angles is important and the subsequent prevention of visual loss from PACG depends on an accurate assessment of the anterior chamber angle (ACA). This review paper discusses the advantages and limitations of newer ACA imaging technologies, namely ultrasound biomicroscopy, Scheimpflug photography, anterior segment optical coherence tomography and EyeCam, highlighting the current clinical evidence comparing these devices with each other and with clinical dynamic indentation gonioscopy, the current reference standard. PMID:21150037

Spatio-temporal population structuring and genetic diversity retention in depleted Atlantic Bluefin tuna of the Mediterranean Sea

PubMed Central

Riccioni, Giulia; Landi, Monica; Ferrara, Giorgia; Milano, Ilaria; Cariani, Alessia; Zane, Lorenzo; Sella, Massimo; Barbujani, Guido; Tinti, Fausto

2010-01-01

Fishery genetics have greatly changed our understanding of population dynamics and structuring in marine fish. In this study, we show that the Atlantic Bluefin tuna (ABFT, Thunnus thynnus), an oceanic predatory species exhibiting highly migratory behavior, large population size, and high potential for dispersal during early life stages, displays significant genetic differences over space and time, both at the fine and large scales of variation. We compared microsatellite variation of contemporary (n = 256) and historical (n = 99) biological samples of ABFTs of the central-western Mediterranean Sea, the latter dating back to the early 20th century. Measures of genetic differentiation and a general heterozygote deficit suggest that differences exist among population samples, both now and 96–80 years ago. Thus, ABFTs do not represent a single panmictic population in the Mediterranean Sea. Statistics designed to infer changes in population size, both from current and past genetic variation, suggest that some Mediterranean ABFT populations, although still not severely reduced in their genetic potential, might have suffered from demographic declines. The short-term estimates of effective population size are straddled on the minimum threshold (effective population size = 500) indicated to maintain genetic diversity and evolutionary potential across several generations in natural populations. PMID:20080643

Analysing the natural population growth of a large marine mammal after a depletive harvest.

PubMed

Romero, M A; Grandi, M F; Koen-Alonso, M; Svendsen, G; Ocampo Reinaldo, M; García, N A; Dans, S L; González, R; Crespo, E A

2017-07-13

An understanding of the underlying processes and comprehensive history of population growth after a harvest-driven depletion is necessary when assessing the long-term effectiveness of management and conservation strategies. The South American sea lion (SASL), Otaria flavescens, is the most conspicuous marine mammal along the South American coasts, where it has been heavily exploited. As a consequence of this exploitation, many of its populations were decimated during the early 20th century but currently show a clear recovery. The aim of this study was to assess SASL population recovery by applying a Bayesian state-space modelling framework. We were particularly interested in understanding how the population responds at low densities, how human-induced mortality interplays with natural mechanisms, and how density-dependence may regulate population growth. The observed population trajectory of SASL shows a non-linear relationship with density, recovering with a maximum increase rate of 0.055. However, 50 years after hunting cessation, the population still represents only 40% of its pre-exploitation abundance. Considering that the SASL population in this region represents approximately 72% of the species abundance within the Atlantic Ocean, the present analysis provides insights into the potential mechanisms regulating the dynamics of SASL populations across the global distributional range of the species.

A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

2015-10-22

In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

Metapopulation effective size and conservation genetic goals for the Fennoscandian wolf (Canis lupus) population

PubMed Central

Laikre, L; Olsson, F; Jansson, E; Hössjer, O; Ryman, N

2016-01-01

The Scandinavian wolf population descends from only five individuals, is isolated, highly inbred and exhibits inbreeding depression. To meet international conservation goals, suggestions include managing subdivided wolf populations over Fennoscandia as a metapopulation; a genetically effective population size of Ne⩾500, in line with the widely accepted long-term genetic viability target, might be attainable with gene flow among subpopulations of Scandinavia, Finland and Russian parts of Fennoscandia. Analytical means for modeling Ne of subdivided populations under such non-idealized situations have been missing, but we recently developed new mathematical methods for exploring inbreeding dynamics and effective population size of complex metapopulations. We apply this theory to the Fennoscandian wolves using empirical estimates of demographic parameters. We suggest that the long-term conservation genetic target for metapopulations should imply that inbreeding rates in the total system and in the separate subpopulations should not exceed Δf=0.001. This implies a meta-Ne of NeMeta⩾500 and a realized effective size of each subpopulation of NeRx⩾500. With current local effective population sizes and one migrant per generation, as recommended by management guidelines, the meta-Ne that can be reached is ~250. Unidirectional gene flow from Finland to Scandinavia reduces meta-Ne to ~130. Our results indicate that both local subpopulation effective sizes and migration among subpopulations must increase substantially from current levels to meet the conservation target. Alternatively, immigration from a large (Ne⩾500) population in northwestern Russia could support the Fennoscandian metapopulation, but immigration must be substantial (5–10 effective immigrants per generation) and migration among Fennoscandian subpopulations must nevertheless increase. PMID:27328654

THE STELLAR SPHEROID, THE DISK, AND THE DYNAMICS OF THE COSMIC WEB

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Domínguez-Tenreiro, R.; Obreja, A.; Brook, C. B.

Models of the advanced stages of gravitational instability predict that baryons that form the stellar populations of current galaxies at z = 0 displayed a web-like structure at high z, as part of the cosmic web (CW). We explore details of these predictions using cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. When the stellar populations of the spheroid and disk components of simulated late-type galaxies are traced back separately to high zs we found CW-like structures where spheroid progenitors are more evolved than disk progenitors. The distinction between the corresponding stellar populations, as driven by their specific angular momentum content j, can be explainedmore » in terms of the CW evolution, extended to two processes occurring at lower z. First, the spheroid progenitors strongly lose j at collapse, which contrasts with the insignificant j loss of the disk progenitors. The second is related to the lack of alignment, at assembly, between the spheroid-to-be material and the already settled proto-disk, in contrast to the alignment of disk-to-be material, in some cases resulting from circumgalactic, disk-induced gravitational torques. The different final outcomes of these low-z processes have their origins in the different initial conditions driven by the CW dynamics.« less

Short-term exposure to a synthetic estrogen disrupts mating dynamics in a pipefish.

PubMed

Partridge, Charlyn; Boettcher, Anne; Jones, Adam G

2010-11-01

Sexual selection is responsible for the evolution of some of the most elaborate traits occurring in nature, many of which play a vital role in competition over access to mates and individual reproductive fitness. Because expression of these traits is typically regulated by sex-steroids there is a significant potential for their expression to be affected by the presence of certain pollutants, such as endocrine disrupting compounds. Endocrine disruptors have been shown to alter primary sexual traits and impact reproduction, but few studies have investigated how these compounds affect secondary sexual trait expression and how that may, in turn, impact mating dynamics. In this study we examine how short-term exposure to a synthetic estrogen impacts secondary sexual trait expression and mating dynamics in the Gulf pipefish, a species displaying sex-role reversal. Our results show that only 10days of exposure to 17α-ethinylestradiol results in adult male pipefish developing female-like secondary sexual traits. While these males are capable of reproduction, females discriminate against exposed males in mate choice trials. In natural populations, this type of discrimination would reduce male mating opportunities, thus potentially reducing their long-term reproductive success. Importantly, the effects of these compounds on mating dynamics and mating opportunity would not be observed using the current standard methods of assessing environmental contamination. However, disrupting these processes could have profound effects on the viability of exposed populations. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of forestry practices at a landscape scale on the dynamics of amphibian populations.

PubMed

Harper, Elizabeth B; Patrick, David A; Gibbs, James P

2015-12-01

Forest loss is a primary cause of worldwide amphibian decline. Timber harvesting in the United States has caused dramatic changes in quality and extent of forest ecosystems, and intensive forest management still occurs. Although numerous studies have documented substantial reductions in amphibian densities related to timber harvest, subsequent extinctions are rare. To better understand the population dynamics that have allowed so many amphibian species to persist in the face of widespread forest disturbance, we developed spatially explicit metapopulation models for four forest-dependent amphibian species (Lithobates sylvaticus, Ambystoma opacum, A. talpoideum, and A. maculatum) that incorporated demographic and habitat selection data derived from experiments conducted as part of the Land Use Effects on Amphibian Populations Project (LEAP). We projected local and landscape-scale population persistence under 108 different forestry practice scenarios, varying treatment (partial cut, clear-cut with coarse woody debris [CWD] removed, and clearcut with CWD retained), cut patch size (1, 10, or 50 ha), total area cut (10, 20, or 30%), and initial amphibian population size (5, 50, or 500 adult females per local breeding population). Under these scenarios, landscape-scale extinction was highly unlikely, occurring in < 1% of model runs and for only 2 of the 4 species, because landscape-scale populations were able to persist via dispersal even despite frequent local extinctions. Yet for all species, population sizes were reduced to -50% in all clear-cut scenarios, regardless of the size of harvested patches. These findings suggest that debate over timber harvesting on pool-breeding amphibian populations in the United States should focus not on questions of landscape-scale extinction but on the ecological consequences of dramatic reductions in amphibian biomass, including changes in trophic interactions, nutrient cycling, and energy transfer. Additionally, we conclude that amphibian declines and extinctions are far more likely to occur as a result of permanent habitat loss resulting from development than from the temporary degradation of habitat caused by current forestry practices.

Investigating the Potential Range Expansion of the Vector Mosquito Aedes Aegypti in Mexico with NASA Earth Science Remote Sensing Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estes, Sue M.

2011-01-01

Dengue (Breakbone) fever is caused by one of four viruses carried by mosquitoes in tropical and subtropical areas. Cases have increased dramatically in the past few decades; there are currently approximately 100 million infections annually around the globe. Our project will integrate environmental observations, including weather, land use, vegetation type, amount and greenness, soil moisture, and mosquito populations with investigations of the human dynamics of the system via household surveys.

Linking extinction-colonization dynamics to genetic structure in a salamander metapopulation.

PubMed

Cosentino, Bradley J; Phillips, Christopher A; Schooley, Robert L; Lowe, Winsor H; Douglas, Marlis R

2012-04-22

Theory predicts that founder effects have a primary role in determining metapopulation genetic structure. However, ecological factors that affect extinction-colonization dynamics may also create spatial variation in the strength of genetic drift and migration. We tested the hypothesis that ecological factors underlying extinction-colonization dynamics influenced the genetic structure of a tiger salamander (Ambystoma tigrinum) metapopulation. We used empirical data on metapopulation dynamics to make a priori predictions about the effects of population age and ecological factors on genetic diversity and divergence among 41 populations. Metapopulation dynamics of A. tigrinum depended on wetland area, connectivity and presence of predatory fish. We found that newly colonized populations were more genetically differentiated than established populations, suggesting that founder effects influenced genetic structure. However, ecological drivers of metapopulation dynamics were more important than age in predicting genetic structure. Consistent with demographic predictions from metapopulation theory, genetic diversity and divergence depended on wetland area and connectivity. Divergence was greatest in small, isolated wetlands where genetic diversity was low. Our results show that ecological factors underlying metapopulation dynamics can be key determinants of spatial genetic structure, and that habitat area and isolation may mediate the contributions of drift and migration to divergence and evolution in local populations.

[Approximation to the dynamics of meningococcal meningitis through dynamic systems and time series].

PubMed

Canals, M

1996-02-01

Meningococcal meningitis is subjected to epidemiological surveillance due to its severity and the occasional presentation of epidemic outbreaks. This work analyses previous disease models, generate new ones and analyses monthly cases using ARIMA time series models. The results show that disease dynamics for closed populations is epidemic and the epidemic size is related to the proportion of carriers and the transmissiveness of the agent. In open populations, disease dynamics depends on the admission rate of susceptible and the relative admission of infected individuals. Our model considers a logistic populational growth and carrier admission proportional to populational size, generating an endemic dynamics. Considering a non-instantaneous system response, a greater realism is obtained establishing that the endemic situation may present a dynamics highly sensitive to initial conditions, depending on the transmissiveness and proportion of susceptible individuals in the population. Time series model showed an adequate predictive capacity in terms no longer than 10 months. The lack of long term predictability was attributed to local changes in the proportion of carriers or on transmissiveness that lead to chaotic dynamics over a seasonal pattern. Predictions for 1995 and 1996 were obtained.

Spin-current emission governed by nonlinear spin dynamics.

PubMed

Tashiro, Takaharu; Matsuura, Saki; Nomura, Akiyo; Watanabe, Shun; Kang, Keehoon; Sirringhaus, Henning; Ando, Kazuya

2015-10-16

Coupling between conduction electrons and localized magnetization is responsible for a variety of phenomena in spintronic devices. This coupling enables to generate spin currents from dynamical magnetization. Due to the nonlinearity of magnetization dynamics, the spin-current emission through the dynamical spin-exchange coupling offers a route for nonlinear generation of spin currents. Here, we demonstrate spin-current emission governed by nonlinear magnetization dynamics in a metal/magnetic insulator bilayer. The spin-current emission from the magnetic insulator is probed by the inverse spin Hall effect, which demonstrates nontrivial temperature and excitation power dependences of the voltage generation. The experimental results reveal that nonlinear magnetization dynamics and enhanced spin-current emission due to magnon scatterings are triggered by decreasing temperature. This result illustrates the crucial role of the nonlinear magnon interactions in the spin-current emission driven by dynamical magnetization, or nonequilibrium magnons, from magnetic insulators.

Spin-current emission governed by nonlinear spin dynamics

PubMed Central

Tashiro, Takaharu; Matsuura, Saki; Nomura, Akiyo; Watanabe, Shun; Kang, Keehoon; Sirringhaus, Henning; Ando, Kazuya

2015-01-01

Coupling between conduction electrons and localized magnetization is responsible for a variety of phenomena in spintronic devices. This coupling enables to generate spin currents from dynamical magnetization. Due to the nonlinearity of magnetization dynamics, the spin-current emission through the dynamical spin-exchange coupling offers a route for nonlinear generation of spin currents. Here, we demonstrate spin-current emission governed by nonlinear magnetization dynamics in a metal/magnetic insulator bilayer. The spin-current emission from the magnetic insulator is probed by the inverse spin Hall effect, which demonstrates nontrivial temperature and excitation power dependences of the voltage generation. The experimental results reveal that nonlinear magnetization dynamics and enhanced spin-current emission due to magnon scatterings are triggered by decreasing temperature. This result illustrates the crucial role of the nonlinear magnon interactions in the spin-current emission driven by dynamical magnetization, or nonequilibrium magnons, from magnetic insulators. PMID:26472712

The Leeuwin Current and its eddies: An introductory overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waite, A. M.; Thompson, P. A.; Pesant, S.; Feng, M.; Beckley, L. E.; Domingues, C. M.; Gaughan, D.; Hanson, C. E.; Holl, C. M.; Koslow, T.; Meuleners, M.; Montoya, J. P.; Moore, T.; Muhling, B. A.; Paterson, H.; Rennie, S.; Strzelecki, J.; Twomey, L.

2007-04-01

The Leeuwin Current (LC) is an anomalous poleward-flowing eastern boundary current that carries warm, low-salinity water southward along the coast of Western Australia. We present an introduction to a new body of work on the physical and biological dynamics of the LC and its eddies, collected in this Special Issue of Deep-Sea Research II, including (1) several modelling efforts aimed at understanding LC dynamics and eddy generation, (2) papers from regional surveys of primary productivity and nitrogen uptake patterns in the LC, and (3) the first detailed field investigations of the biological oceanography of LC mesoscale eddies. Key results in papers collected here include insight into the source regions of the LC and the Leeuwin Undercurrent (LUC), the energetic interactions of the LC and LUC, and their roles in the generation of warm-core (WC) and cold-core (CC) eddies, respectively. In near-shore waters, the dynamics of upwelling were found to control the spatio-temporal variability of primary production, and important latitudinal differences were found in the fraction of production driven by nitrate (the f-ratio). The ubiquitous deep chlorophyll maximum within LC was found to be a significant contributor to total water column production within the region. WC eddies including a single large eddy studied in 2000 contained relatively elevated chlorophyll a concentrations thought to originate at least in part from the continental shelf/shelf break region and to have been incorporated during eddy formation. During the Eddies 2003 voyage, a more detailed study comparing the WC and CC eddies illuminated more mechanistic details of the unusual dynamics and ecology of the eddies. Food web analysis suggested that the WC eddy had an enhanced "classic" food web, with more concentrated mesozooplankton and larger diatom populations than in the CC eddy. Finally, implications for fisheries management are addressed.

Using high-resolution satellite imagery to assess populations of animals in the Antarctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LaRue, Michelle Ann

The Southern Ocean is one of the most rapidly-changing ecosystems on the planet due to the effects of climate change and commercial fishing for ecologically-important krill and fish. It is imperative that populations of indicator species, such as penguins and seals, be monitored at regional- to global scales to decouple the effects of climate and anthropogenic changes for appropriate ecosystem-based management of the Southern Ocean. Remotely monitoring populations through high-resolution satellite imagery is currently the only feasible way to gain information about population trends of penguins and seals in Antarctica. In my first chapter, I review the literature where high-resolution satellite imagery has been used to assess populations of animals in polar regions. Building on this literature, my second chapter focuses on estimating changes in abundance in the Weddell seal population in Erebus Bay. I found a strong correlation between ground and satellite counts, and this finding provides an alternate method for assessing populations of Weddell seals in areas where less is known about population status. My third chapter explores how size of the guano stain of Adelie penguins can be used to predict population size. Using high-resolution imagery and ground counts, I built a model to estimate the breeding population of Adelie penguins using a supervised classification to estimate guano size. These results suggest that the size of guano stain is an accurate predictor of population size, and can be applied to estimate remote Adelie penguin colonies. In my fourth chapter, I use air photos, satellite imagery, climate and mark-resight data to determine that climate change has positively impacted the population of Adelie penguins at Beaufort Island through a habitat release that ultimately affected the dynamics within the southern Ross Sea metapopulation. Finally, for my fifth chapter I combined the literature with observations from aerial surveys and satellite imagery to determine that emperor penguins are not philopatric. These results have implications for interpreting long-term modeling studies and I suggest that future research should account for metapopulation dynamics within emperor penguin populations. Combined, my dissertation provides resources and new insights for effective management of the Southern Ocean ecosystem.

Human-Induced Climate Variations Linked to Urbanization: From Observations to Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Jin, Menglin

2004-01-01

The goal of this session is to bring together scientists from interdisciplinary backgrounds to discuss the data, scientific approaches and recent results focusing on the impact of urbanization on the climate. The discussion will highlight current observational and modeling capabilities being employed for investigating the urban environment and its linkage to the change in the Earth's climate system. The goal of the session is to identify our current stand and the future direction on the topic. Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of population of the world has moved to urban areas. By 1995, more than 70% of population of North America and Europe were living in cities. By 2025, the United Nations estimates that 60% of the worlds population will live in cities. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is urban, better understanding of how the atmosphere-ocean-land-biosphere components interact as a coupled system and the influence of human activities on this system is critical. Our understanding of urbanization effect is incomplete, partly because human activities induce new changes on climate in addition to the original natural variations, and partly because previously few data available for study urban effect globally. Urban construction changes surface roughness, albedo, heat capacity and vegetation coverage. Traffic and industry increase atmospheric aerosol. It is suggested that urbanization may modify rainfall processes through aerosol-cloud interactions or dynamic feedbacks. Because urbanization effect on climate is determined by many factors including land cover, the city's microscale features, population density, and human lifestyle patterns, it is necessary to study urban areas over globe.

Causes and consequences of complex population dynamics in an annual plant, Cardamine pensylvanica

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crone, E.E.

1995-11-08

The relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining the population dynamics of plants has been widely debated with little resolution. In this thesis, the author explores the effects of density-dependent population regulation on population dynamics in Cardamine pensylvanica, an annual plant. In the first chapter, she shows that experimental populations of C. pensylvanica cycled from high to low density in controlled constant-environment conditions. These cycles could not be explained by external environmental changes or simple models of direct density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}]), but they could be explained by delayed density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{submore » t}, N{sub t+1}]). In the second chapter, she shows that the difference in the stability properties of population growth models with and without delayed density dependence is due to the presence of Hopf as well as slip bifurcations from stable to chaotic population dynamics. She also measures delayed density dependence due to effects of parental density on offspring quality in C. pensylvanica and shows that this is large enough to be the cause of the population dynamics observed in C. pensylvanica. In the third chapter, the author extends her analyses of density-dependent population growth models to include interactions between competing species. In the final chapter, she compares the effects of fixed spatial environmental variation and variation in population size on the evolutionary response of C. pensylvanica populations.« less

Population dynamics on heterogeneous bacterial substrates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mobius, Wolfram; Murray, Andrew W.; Nelson, David R.

2012-02-01

How species invade new territories and how these range expansions influence the population's genotypes are important questions in the field of population genetics. The majority of work addressing these questions focuses on homogeneous environments. Much less is known about the population dynamics and population genetics when the environmental conditions are heterogeneous in space. To better understand range expansions in two-dimensional heterogeneous environments, we employ a system of bacteria and bacteriophage, the viruses of bacteria. Thereby, the bacteria constitute the environment in which a population of bacteriophages expands. The spread of phage constitutes itself in lysis of bacteria and thus formation of clear regions on bacterial lawns, called plaques. We study the population dynamics and genetics of the expanding page for various patterns of environments.

Effects of wind energy generation and white-nose syndrome on the viability of the Indiana bat

PubMed Central

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Russell, Robin E.; Szymanski, Jennifer A.

2016-01-01

Wind energy generation holds the potential to adversely affect wildlife populations. Species-wide effects are difficult to study and few, if any, studies examine effects of wind energy generation on any species across its entire range. One species that may be affected by wind energy generation is the endangered Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis), which is found in the eastern and midwestern United States. In addition to mortality from wind energy generation, the species also faces range-wide threats from the emerging infectious fungal disease, white-nose syndrome (WNS). White-nose syndrome, caused by Pseudogymnoascus destructans, disturbs hibernating bats leading to high levels of mortality. We used a spatially explicit full-annual-cycle model to investigate how wind turbine mortality and WNS may singly and then together affect population dynamics of this species. In the simulation, wind turbine mortality impacted the metapopulation dynamics of the species by causing extirpation of some of the smaller winter colonies. In general, effects of wind turbines were localized and focused on specific spatial subpopulations. Conversely, WNS had a depressive effect on the species across its range. Wind turbine mortality interacted with WNS and together these stressors had a larger impact than would be expected from either alone, principally because these stressors together act to reduce species abundance across the spectrum of population sizes. Our findings illustrate the importance of not only prioritizing the protection of large winter colonies as is currently done, but also of protecting metapopulation dynamics and migratory connectivity. PMID:28028486

Dynamics of a recolonizing population of black bears in the Ouachita Mountains of Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bales, S.L.; Hellgren, E.C.; Leslie, David M.; Hemphill, J.

2005-01-01

Understanding how populations expand to recolonize former habitats is important to restoration efforts in wildlife management and conservation. Translocation of black bears (Ursus americanus) to Arkansas in the 1950s and 1960s has led to recolonization of former bear range in Oklahoma, with substantial increases in distribution and abundance of the species in Oklahoma over the last 15 years. We studied demographics of black bears in southeastern Oklahoma from May 2001 to November 2002 to provide insight into characteristics of recolonizing populations of large carnivores. We trapped 51 black bears (22 M, 29 F) 77 times and radiocollared 25 female bears. Sex ratios of adults and cubs were skewed toward females, and the age structure was younger than observed in other unharvested populations. Survival of adult females was estimated at 0.9??0.1, and fertility was estimated at 0.77 female young/female/year. Density on the study area was estimated at 0.21 bears/km2 and the current finite growth rate (??) of the study population was estimated to be 1.11/year. Demographic characteristics of the Oklahoma population of black bears were similar to those of other recolonizing populations of large carnivores.

Long-distance dispersal via ocean currents connects Omani clownfish populations throughout entire species range.

PubMed

Simpson, Stephen D; Harrison, Hugo B; Claereboudt, Michel R; Planes, Serge

2014-01-01

Dispersal is a crucial ecological process, driving population dynamics and defining the structure and persistence of populations. Measuring demographic connectivity between discreet populations remains a long-standing challenge for most marine organisms because it involves tracking the movement of pelagic larvae. Recent studies demonstrate local connectivity of reef fish populations via the dispersal of planktonic larvae, while biogeography indicates some larvae must disperse 100-1000 s kilometres. To date, empirical measures of long-distance dispersal are lacking and the full scale of dispersal is unknown. Here we provide the first measure of long-distance dispersal in a coral reef fish, the Omani clownfish Amphiprion omanensis, throughout its entire species range. Using genetic assignment tests we demonstrate bidirectional exchange of first generation migrants, with subsequent social and reproductive integration, between two populations separated by over 400 km. Immigration was 5.4% and 0.7% in each region, suggesting a biased southward exchange, and matched predictions from a physically-coupled dispersal model. This rare opportunity to measure long-distance dispersal demonstrates connectivity of isolated marine populations over distances of 100 s of kilometres and provides a unique insight into the processes of biogeography, speciation and adaptation.

Long-Distance Dispersal via Ocean Currents Connects Omani Clownfish Populations throughout Entire Species Range

PubMed Central

Claereboudt, Michel R.; Planes, Serge

2014-01-01

Dispersal is a crucial ecological process, driving population dynamics and defining the structure and persistence of populations. Measuring demographic connectivity between discreet populations remains a long-standing challenge for most marine organisms because it involves tracking the movement of pelagic larvae. Recent studies demonstrate local connectivity of reef fish populations via the dispersal of planktonic larvae, while biogeography indicates some larvae must disperse 100–1000 s kilometres. To date, empirical measures of long-distance dispersal are lacking and the full scale of dispersal is unknown. Here we provide the first measure of long-distance dispersal in a coral reef fish, the Omani clownfish Amphiprion omanensis, throughout its entire species range. Using genetic assignment tests we demonstrate bidirectional exchange of first generation migrants, with subsequent social and reproductive integration, between two populations separated by over 400 km. Immigration was 5.4% and 0.7% in each region, suggesting a biased southward exchange, and matched predictions from a physically-coupled dispersal model. This rare opportunity to measure long-distance dispersal demonstrates connectivity of isolated marine populations over distances of 100 s of kilometres and provides a unique insight into the processes of biogeography, speciation and adaptation. PMID:25229550

Plankton Production Biology

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

kind. It will permit the study of stage-specific population dynamics (growth rate, production, mortality) of copepod larvae in mixed populations...will be picked up. 4. The translation and distribution of Sazhina’s keys will permit the study of stage-specific population dynamics (growth rate...of the 1987 Russian original, edited by K. Banse) Petipa, T.S. (ed.) (1986) Ecological Systems in Dynamically Active Zones of the Indian Ocean

Rapid climate change and the rate of adaptation: insight from experimental quantitative genetics.

PubMed

Shaw, Ruth G; Etterson, Julie R

2012-09-01

Evolution proceeds unceasingly in all biological populations. It is clear that climate-driven evolution has molded plants in deep time and within extant populations. However, it is less certain whether adaptive evolution can proceed sufficiently rapidly to maintain the fitness and demographic stability of populations subjected to exceptionally rapid contemporary climate change. Here, we consider this question, drawing on current evidence on the rate of plant range shifts and the potential for an adaptive evolutionary response. We emphasize advances in understanding based on theoretical studies that model interacting evolutionary processes, and we provide an overview of quantitative genetic approaches that can parameterize these models to provide more meaningful predictions of the dynamic interplay between genetics, demography and evolution. We outline further research that can clarify both the adaptive potential of plant populations as climate continues to change and the role played by ongoing adaptation in their persistence. © 2012 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2012 New Phytologist Trust.

1/f oscillations in a model of moth populations oriented by diffusive pheromones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbosa, L. A.; Martins, M. L.; Lima, E. R.

2005-01-01

An individual-based model for the population dynamics of Spodoptera frugiperda in a homogeneous environment is proposed. The model involves moths feeding plants, mating through an anemotaxis search (i.e., oriented by odor dispersed in a current of air), and dying due to resource competition or at a maximum age. As observed in the laboratory, the females release pheromones at exponentially distributed time intervals, and it is assumed that the ranges of the male flights follow a power-law distribution. Computer simulations of the model reveal the central role of anemotaxis search for the persistence of moth population. Such stationary populations are exponentially distributed in age, exhibit random temporal fluctuations with 1/f spectrum, and self-organize in disordered spatial patterns with long-range correlations. In addition, the model results demonstrate that pest control through pheromone mass trapping is effective only if the amounts of pheromone released by the traps decay much slower than the exponential distribution for calling female.

Groupies and Loners: The Population of Multi-planet Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Laerhoven, Christa L.; Greenberg, Richard

2014-11-01

Observational surveys with Kepler and other telescopes have shown that multi-planet systems are very numerous. Considering the secular dynamcis of multi-planet systems provides substantial insight into the interactions between planets in those systems. Since the underlying secular structure of a multi-planet system (the secular eigenmodes) can be calculated using only the planets' masses and semi-major axes, one can elucidate the eccentricity and inclination behavior of planets in those systems even without knowing the planets' current eccentricities and inclinations. We have calculated both the eccentricity and inclination secular eigenmodes for the population of known multi-planet systems whose planets have well determined masses and periods. We will discuss the commonality of dynamically grouped planets ('groupies') vs dynamically uncoupled planets ('loners'), and compare to what would be expected from randomly generated systems with the same overall distribution of masses and semi-major axes. We will also discuss the occurrence of planets that strongly influence the behavior of other planets without being influenced by those others ('overlords'). Examples will be given and general trends will be discussed.

Decadal Bering Sea seascape change: consequences for Pacific walruses and indigenous hunters.

PubMed

Ray, G Carleton; Hufford, Gary L; Overland, James E; Krupnik, Igor; McCormick-Ray, Jerry; Frey, Karen; Labunski, Elizabeth

2016-01-01

The most significant factors currently affecting the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) population are climate change and consequent changes in sea-ice morphology and dynamics. This paper integrates recent physical sea-ice change in the Bering Sea with biological and ecological conditions of walruses in their winter-spring reproductive habitat. Historically, walrus in winter-spring depended on a critical mass of sea-ice habitat to optimize social networking, reproductive fitness, feeding behavior, migration, and energetic efficiency. During 2003-2013, our cross-disciplinary, multiscale analysis from shipboard observations, satellite imagery, and ice-floe tracking, reinforced by information from indigenous subsistence hunters, documented change of sea-ice structure from a plastic continuum to a "mixing bowl" of ice floes moving more independently. This fragmentation of winter habitat preconditions the walrus population toward dispersal mortality and will also negatively affect the availability of resources for indigenous communities. We urge an expanded research and management agenda that integrates walrus natural history and habitat more completely with changing sea-ice morphology and dynamics at multiple scales, while also meeting the needs of local communities.

On the dynamics of neutral mutations in a mathematical model for a homogeneous stem cell population.

PubMed

Traulsen, Arne; Lenaerts, Tom; Pacheco, Jorge M; Dingli, David

2013-02-01

The theory of the clonal origin of cancer states that a tumour arises from one cell that acquires mutation(s) leading to the malignant phenotype. It is the current belief that many of these mutations give a fitness advantage to the mutant population allowing it to expand, eventually leading to disease. However, mutations that lead to such a clonal expansion need not give a fitness advantage and may in fact be neutral--or almost neutral--with respect to fitness. Such mutant clones can be eliminated or expand stochastically, leading to a malignant phenotype (disease). Mutations in haematopoietic stem cells give rise to diseases such as chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) and paroxysmal nocturnal haemoglobinuria (PNH). Although neutral drift often leads to clonal extinction, disease is still possible, and in this case, it has important implications both for the incidence of disease and for therapy, as it may be more difficult to eliminate neutral mutations with therapy. We illustrate the consequences of such dynamics, using CML and PNH as examples. These considerations have implications for many other tumours as well.

Desiccation tolerance as a function of age, sex, humidity and temperature in adults of the African malaria vectors Anopheles arabiensis and Anopheles funestus.

PubMed

Lyons, Candice L; Coetzee, Maureen; Terblanche, John S; Chown, Steven L

2014-11-01

Adult mosquito survival is strongly temperature and moisture dependent. Few studies have investigated the interacting effects of these variables on adult survival and how this differs among the sexes and with age, despite the importance of such information for population dynamic models. For these reasons, the desiccation tolerance of Anopheles arabiensis Patton and Anopheles funestus Giles males and females of three different ages was assessed under three combinations of temperature and humidity. Females were more desiccation tolerant than males, surviving for longer periods than males under all experimental conditions. In addition, younger adults were more tolerant of desiccation than older groups. Both species showed reduced water loss rate (WLR) as the primary mechanism by which they tolerate desiccation. Although A. arabiensis is often considered to be the more arid-adapted of the two species, it showed lower survival times and higher WLR than A. funestus. The current information could improve population dynamic models of these vectors, given that adult survival information for such models is relatively sparse. © 2014. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

FRED (a Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics): an open-source software system for modeling infectious diseases and control strategies using census-based populations.

PubMed

Grefenstette, John J; Brown, Shawn T; Rosenfeld, Roni; DePasse, Jay; Stone, Nathan T B; Cooley, Phillip C; Wheaton, William D; Fyshe, Alona; Galloway, David D; Sriram, Anuroop; Guclu, Hasan; Abraham, Thomas; Burke, Donald S

2013-10-08

Mathematical and computational models provide valuable tools that help public health planners to evaluate competing health interventions, especially for novel circumstances that cannot be examined through observational or controlled studies, such as pandemic influenza. The spread of diseases like influenza depends on the mixing patterns within the population, and these mixing patterns depend in part on local factors including the spatial distribution and age structure of the population, the distribution of size and composition of households, employment status and commuting patterns of adults, and the size and age structure of schools. Finally, public health planners must take into account the health behavior patterns of the population, patterns that often vary according to socioeconomic factors such as race, household income, and education levels. FRED (a Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics) is a freely available open-source agent-based modeling system based closely on models used in previously published studies of pandemic influenza. This version of FRED uses open-access census-based synthetic populations that capture the demographic and geographic heterogeneities of the population, including realistic household, school, and workplace social networks. FRED epidemic models are currently available for every state and county in the United States, and for selected international locations. State and county public health planners can use FRED to explore the effects of possible influenza epidemics in specific geographic regions of interest and to help evaluate the effect of interventions such as vaccination programs and school closure policies. FRED is available under a free open source license in order to contribute to the development of better modeling tools and to encourage open discussion of modeling tools being used to evaluate public health policies. We also welcome participation by other researchers in the further development of FRED.

Biological Control of the Chagas Disease Vector Triatoma infestans with the Entomopathogenic Fungus Beauveria bassiana Combined with an Aggregation Cue: Field, Laboratory and Mathematical Modeling Assessment

PubMed Central

Forlani, Lucas; Pedrini, Nicolás; Girotti, Juan R.; Mijailovsky, Sergio J.; Cardozo, Rubén M.; Gentile, Alberto G.; Hernández-Suárez, Carlos M.; Rabinovich, Jorge E.; Juárez, M. Patricia

2015-01-01

Background Current Chagas disease vector control strategies, based on chemical insecticide spraying, are growingly threatened by the emergence of pyrethroid-resistant Triatoma infestans populations in the Gran Chaco region of South America. Methodology and findings We have already shown that the entomopathogenic fungus Beauveria bassiana has the ability to breach the insect cuticle and is effective both against pyrethroid-susceptible and pyrethroid-resistant T. infestans, in laboratory as well as field assays. It is also known that T. infestans cuticle lipids play a major role as contact aggregation pheromones. We estimated the effectiveness of pheromone-based infection boxes containing B. bassiana spores to kill indoor bugs, and its effect on the vector population dynamics. Laboratory assays were performed to estimate the effect of fungal infection on female reproductive parameters. The effect of insect exuviae as an aggregation signal in the performance of the infection boxes was estimated both in the laboratory and in the field. We developed a stage-specific matrix model of T. infestans to describe the fungal infection effects on insect population dynamics, and to analyze the performance of the biopesticide device in vector biological control. Conclusions The pheromone-containing infective box is a promising new tool against indoor populations of this Chagas disease vector, with the number of boxes per house being the main driver of the reduction of the total domestic bug population. This ecologically safe approach is the first proven alternative to chemical insecticides in the control of T. infestans. The advantageous reduction in vector population by delayed-action fungal biopesticides in a contained environment is here shown supported by mathematical modeling. PMID:25969989

Combined effects of climate, predation, and density dependence on Greater and Lesser Scaup population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Beth E.; Hooten, Mevin B.; DeVink, Jean-Michel; Koons, David N.

2015-01-01

An understanding of species relationships is critical in the management and conservation of populations facing climate change, yet few studies address how climate alters species interactions and other population drivers. We use a long-term, broad-scale data set of relative abundance to examine the influence of climate, predators, and density dependence on the population dynamics of declining scaup (Aythya) species within the core of their breeding range. The state-space modeling approach we use applies to a wide range of wildlife species, especially populations monitored over broad spatiotemporal extents. Using this approach, we found that immediate snow cover extent in the preceding winter and spring had the strongest effects, with increases in mean snow cover extent having a positive effect on the local surveyed abundance of scaup. The direct effects of mesopredator abundance on scaup population dynamics were weaker, but the results still indicated a potential interactive process between climate and food web dynamics (mesopredators, alternative prey, and scaup). By considering climate variables and other potential effects on population dynamics, and using a rigorous estimation framework, we provide insight into complex ecological processes for guiding conservation and policy actions aimed at mitigating and reversing the decline of scaup.

Evaluating fishery rehabilitation under uncertainty: A bioeconomic analysis of quota management for the Green Bay yellow perch fishery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, B.L.; Milliman, S.R.; Bishop, R.C.; Kitchell, J.F.

1992-01-01

The fishery for yellow perch Perca flavescens in Green Bay, Lake Michigan, is currently operating under a rehabilitation plan based on a commercial harvest quota. We developed a bioeconomic computer model that included links between population density and growth, recruitment, and fishing effort for this fishery. Random variability was included in the stock-recruitment relation and in a simulated population assessment. We used the model in an adaptive management framework to evaluate the effects of the rehabilitation plan on both commercial and sport fisheries and to search for ways to improve the plan. Results indicate that the current quota policy is a member of a set of policies that would meet most management goals and increase total value of the fishery. Sensitivity analyses indicate that this conclusion is robust over a wide range of biological conditions. We predict that commercial fishers will lose money relative to the baseline condition, but they may receive other benefits from the elimination of the common-property nature of the fishery. The prospect exists for managing variability in harvest and stock size and for maximizing economic returns in the fishery, but more information is required, primarily on sportfishing effort dynamics and angler preferences. Stock-recruitment relations, density dependence of growth, and dynamics of sportfishing effort are the primary sources of uncertainty limiting the precision of our predictions. The current quota policy is about as good as other policies at reducing this uncertainty and appears, overall, to be one of the best choices for this fishery. The analytical techniques used in this study were primarily simple, heuristic approaches that could be easily transferred to other studies.

Dispersal and behavior of pacific halibut hippoglossus stenolepis in the bering sea and Aleutian islands region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Seitz, A.C.; Loher, Timothy; Norcross, Brenda L.; Nielsen, J.L.

2011-01-01

Currently, it is assumed that eastern Pacific halibut Hippoglossus stenolepis belong to a single, fully mixed population extending from California through the Bering Sea, in which adult halibut disperse randomly throughout their range during their lifetime. However, we hypothesize that hali but dispersal is more complex than currently assumed and is not spatially random. To test this hypo thesis, we studied the seasonal dispersal and behavior of Pacific halibut in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands (BSAI). Pop-up Archival Transmitting tags attached to halibut (82 to 154 cm fork length) during the summer provided no evidence that individuals moved out of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands region into the Gulf of Alaska during the mid-winter spawning season, supporting the concept that this region contains a separate spawning group of adult halibut. There was evidence for geographically localized groups of halibut along the Aleutian Island chain, as all of the individuals tagged there displayed residency, with their movements possibly impeded by tidal currents in the passes between islands. Mid-winter aggregation areas of halibut are assumed to be spawning grounds, of which 2 were previously unidentified and extend the species' presumed spawning range ~1000 km west and ~600 km north of the nearest documented spawning area. If there are indeed independent spawning groups of Pacific halibut in the BSAI, their dynamics may vary sufficiently from those of the Gulf of Alaska, so that specifically accounting for their relative segregation and unique dynamics within the larger population model will be necessary for correctly predicting how these components may respond to fishing pressure and changing environmental conditions.?? Inter-Research 2011.

Wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, Wolfgang; Dentener, Frank; Lamarque, Jean-François; Jiang, Leiwen; Arneth, Almut

2017-07-01

Wildfires pose a significant risk to human livelihoods and are a substantial health hazard due to emissions of toxic smoke. Previous studies have shown that climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2, and human demographic dynamics can lead to substantially altered wildfire risk in the future, with fire activity increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. The present study re-examines these results from the perspective of air pollution risk, focussing on emissions of airborne particulate matter (PM2. 5), combining an existing ensemble of simulations using a coupled fire-dynamic vegetation model with current observation-based estimates of wildfire emissions and simulations with a chemical transport model. Currently, wildfire PM2. 5 emissions exceed those from anthropogenic sources in large parts of the world. We further analyse two extreme sets of future wildfire emissions in a socio-economic, demographic climate change context and compare them to anthropogenic emission scenarios reflecting current and ambitious air pollution legislation. In most regions of the world, ambitious reductions of anthropogenic air pollutant emissions have the potential to limit mean annual pollutant PM2. 5 levels to comply with World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines for PM2. 5. Worst-case future wildfire emissions are not likely to interfere with these annual goals, largely due to fire seasonality, as well as a tendency of wildfire sources to be situated in areas of intermediate population density, as opposed to anthropogenic sources that tend to be highest at the highest population densities. However, during the high-fire season, we find many regions where future PM2. 5 pollution levels can reach dangerous levels even for a scenario of aggressive reduction of anthropogenic emissions.

Simultaneous effects of food limitation and inducible resistance on herbivore population dynamics.

PubMed

Abbott, Karen C; Morris, William F; Gross, Kevin

2008-02-01

Many herbivore populations fluctuate temporally, but the causes of those fluctuations remain unclear. Plant inducible resistance can theoretically cause herbivore population fluctuations, because herbivory may induce plant changes that reduce the survival or reproduction of later-feeding herbivores. Herbivory can also simply reduce the quantity of food available for later feeders and this, too, can cause population fluctuations. Inducible resistance and food limitation often occur simultaneously, yet whether they jointly facilitate or suppress herbivore fluctuations remains largely unexplored. We present models that suggest that food limitation and inducible resistance may have synergistic effects on herbivore population dynamics. The population-level response of the food plant to herbivory and the details of how inducible resistance affects herbivore performance both influence the resulting herbivore dynamics. Our results identify some biological properties of plant-herbivore systems that might determine whether or not cycles occur, and suggest that future empirical and theoretical population dynamics studies should account for the effects of both food limitation and inducible resistance.

Public goods games in populations with fluctuating size.

PubMed

McAvoy, Alex; Fraiman, Nicolas; Hauert, Christoph; Wakeley, John; Nowak, Martin A

2018-05-01

Many mathematical frameworks of evolutionary game dynamics assume that the total population size is constant and that selection affects only the relative frequency of strategies. Here, we consider evolutionary game dynamics in an extended Wright-Fisher process with variable population size. In such a scenario, it is possible that the entire population becomes extinct. Survival of the population may depend on which strategy prevails in the game dynamics. Studying cooperative dilemmas, it is a natural feature of such a model that cooperators enable survival, while defectors drive extinction. Although defectors are favored for any mixed population, random drift could lead to their elimination and the resulting pure-cooperator population could survive. On the other hand, if the defectors remain, then the population will quickly go extinct because the frequency of cooperators steadily declines and defectors alone cannot survive. In a mutation-selection model, we find that (i) a steady supply of cooperators can enable long-term population survival, provided selection is sufficiently strong, and (ii) selection can increase the abundance of cooperators but reduce their relative frequency. Thus, evolutionary game dynamics in populations with variable size generate a multifaceted notion of what constitutes a trait's long-term success. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effect of seasonal harvesting on stage-structured population models.

PubMed

Tang, Sanyi; Chen, Lansun

2004-04-01

In most models of population dynamics, increases in population due to birth are assumed to be time-independent, but many species reproduce only during a single period of the year. We propose an exploited single-species model with stage structure for the dynamics in a fish population for which births occur in a single pulse once per time period. Since birth pulse populations are often characterized with a discrete time dynamical system determined by its Poincaré map, we explore the consequences of harvest timing to equilibrium population sizes under seasonal dependence and obtain threshold conditions for their stability, and show that the timing of harvesting has a strong impact on the persistence of the fish population, on the volume of mature fish stock and on the maximum annual-sustainable yield. Moreover, our results imply that the population can sustain much higher harvest rates if the mature fish is removed as early in the season (after the birth pulse) as possible. Further, the effects of harvesting effort and harvest timing on the dynamical complexity are also investigated. Bifurcation diagrams are constructed with the birth rate (or harvesting effort or harvest timing) as the bifurcation parameter, and these are observed to display rich structure, including chaotic bands with periodic windows, pitch-fork and tangent bifurcations, non-unique dynamics (meaning that several attractors coexist) and attractor crisis. This suggests that birth pulse, in effect, provides a natural period or cyclicity that makes the dynamical behavior more complex.

Soil-related variations in the population dynamics of six dipterocarp tree species with strong habitat preferences.

PubMed

Yamada, Toshihiro; Yamada, Yuko; Okuda, Toshinori; Fletcher, Christine

2013-07-01

Differences in the density of conspecific tree individuals in response to environmental gradients are well documented for many tree species, but how such density differences are generated and maintained is poorly understood. We examined the segregation of six dipterocarp species among three soil types in the Pasoh tropical forest, Malaysia. We examined how individual performance and population dynamics changed across the soil types using 10-year demographic data to compare tree performance across soil types, and constructed population matrix models to analyze the population dynamics. Species showed only minor changes in mortality and juvenile growth across soil types, although recruitment differed greatly. Clear, interspecific demographic trade-offs between growth and mortality were found in all soil types. The relative trade-offs by a species did not differ substantially among the soil types. Population sizes were projected to remain stable in all soil types for all species with one exception. Our life-table response experiment demonstrated that the population dynamics of a species differed only subtly among soil types. Therefore, species with strong density differences across soil types do not necessarily differ greatly in their population dynamics across the soil types. In contrast, interspecific differences in population dynamics were large. The trade-off between mortality and growth led to a negative correlation between the contributions of mortality and growth to variations in the population growth rate (λ) and thus reduced their net contributions. Recruitment had little impact on the variation in λ. The combination of these factors resulted in little variation in λ among species.

Light-field-driven currents in graphene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higuchi, Takuya; Heide, Christian; Ullmann, Konrad; Weber, Heiko B.; Hommelhoff, Peter

2017-10-01

The ability to steer electrons using the strong electromagnetic field of light has opened up the possibility of controlling electron dynamics on the sub-femtosecond (less than 10-15 seconds) timescale. In dielectrics and semiconductors, various light-field-driven effects have been explored, including high-harmonic generation, sub-optical-cycle interband population transfer and the non-perturbative change of the transient polarizability. In contrast, much less is known about light-field-driven electron dynamics in narrow-bandgap systems or in conductors, in which screening due to free carriers or light absorption hinders the application of strong optical fields. Graphene is a promising platform with which to achieve light-field-driven control of electrons in a conducting material, because of its broadband and ultrafast optical response, weak screening and high damage threshold. Here we show that a current induced in monolayer graphene by two-cycle laser pulses is sensitive to the electric-field waveform, that is, to the exact shape of the optical carrier field of the pulse, which is controlled by the carrier-envelope phase, with a precision on the attosecond (10-18 seconds) timescale. Such a current, dependent on the carrier-envelope phase, shows a striking reversal of the direction of the current as a function of the driving field amplitude at about two volts per nanometre. This reversal indicates a transition of light-matter interaction from the weak-field (photon-driven) regime to the strong-field (light-field-driven) regime, where the intraband dynamics influence interband transitions. We show that in this strong-field regime the electron dynamics are governed by sub-optical-cycle Landau-Zener-Stückelberg interference, composed of coherent repeated Landau-Zener transitions on the femtosecond timescale. Furthermore, the influence of this sub-optical-cycle interference can be controlled with the laser polarization state. These coherent electron dynamics in graphene take place on a hitherto unexplored timescale, faster than electron-electron scattering (tens of femtoseconds) and electron-phonon scattering (hundreds of femtoseconds). We expect these results to have direct ramifications for band-structure tomography and light-field-driven petahertz electronics.

Light-field-driven currents in graphene.

PubMed

Higuchi, Takuya; Heide, Christian; Ullmann, Konrad; Weber, Heiko B; Hommelhoff, Peter

2017-10-12

The ability to steer electrons using the strong electromagnetic field of light has opened up the possibility of controlling electron dynamics on the sub-femtosecond (less than 10 -15 seconds) timescale. In dielectrics and semiconductors, various light-field-driven effects have been explored, including high-harmonic generation, sub-optical-cycle interband population transfer and the non-perturbative change of the transient polarizability. In contrast, much less is known about light-field-driven electron dynamics in narrow-bandgap systems or in conductors, in which screening due to free carriers or light absorption hinders the application of strong optical fields. Graphene is a promising platform with which to achieve light-field-driven control of electrons in a conducting material, because of its broadband and ultrafast optical response, weak screening and high damage threshold. Here we show that a current induced in monolayer graphene by two-cycle laser pulses is sensitive to the electric-field waveform, that is, to the exact shape of the optical carrier field of the pulse, which is controlled by the carrier-envelope phase, with a precision on the attosecond (10 -18 seconds) timescale. Such a current, dependent on the carrier-envelope phase, shows a striking reversal of the direction of the current as a function of the driving field amplitude at about two volts per nanometre. This reversal indicates a transition of light-matter interaction from the weak-field (photon-driven) regime to the strong-field (light-field-driven) regime, where the intraband dynamics influence interband transitions. We show that in this strong-field regime the electron dynamics are governed by sub-optical-cycle Landau-Zener-Stückelberg interference, composed of coherent repeated Landau-Zener transitions on the femtosecond timescale. Furthermore, the influence of this sub-optical-cycle interference can be controlled with the laser polarization state. These coherent electron dynamics in graphene take place on a hitherto unexplored timescale, faster than electron-electron scattering (tens of femtoseconds) and electron-phonon scattering (hundreds of femtoseconds). We expect these results to have direct ramifications for band-structure tomography and light-field-driven petahertz electronics.

Capital, population and urban patterns.

PubMed

Zhang, W

1994-04-01

The author develops an approach to urban dynamics with endogenous capital and population growth, synthesizing the Alonso location model, the two-sector neoclassical growth model, and endogenous population theory. A dynamic model for an isolated island economy with endogenous capital, population, and residential structure is developed on the basis of Alonso's residential model and the two-sector neoclassical growth model. The model describes the interdependence between residential structure, economic growth, population growth, and economic structure over time and space. It has a unique long-run equilibrium, which may be either stable or unstable, depending upon the population dynamics. Applying the Hopf theorem, the author also shows that when the system is unstable, the economic geography exhibits permanent endogenous oscillations.

Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, David A.; Clark, W.R.; Arnold, S.J.; Bronikowski, A.M.

2011-01-01

Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (??s) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on ?? s. The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on ??s was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on ??s was 4- 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life-history traits in the two ecotypes, which, in turn, affect population dynamics. M-slow populations have evolved life-history traits that buffer fitness against direct effects of variation in reproduction and that spread lifetime reproduction across a greater number of reproductive bouts. These results highlight the importance of long-term demographic and environmental monitoring and of incorporating temporal dynamics into empirical studies of life-history evolution. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories.

PubMed

Miller, David A; Clark, William R; Arnold, Stevan J; Bronikowski, Anne M

2011-08-01

Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (lambda(s)) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on lambda(s). The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on lambda(s) was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on lambda(s) was 4 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life-history traits in the two ecotypes, which, in turn, affect population dynamics. M-slow populations have evolved life-history traits that buffer fitness against direct effects of variation in reproduction and that spread lifetime reproduction across a greater number of reproductive bouts. These results highlight the importance of long-term demographic and environmental monitoring and of incorporating temporal dynamics into empirical studies of life-history evolution.

A Systematic Bayesian Integration of Epidemiological and Genetic Data

PubMed Central

Lau, Max S. Y.; Marion, Glenn; Streftaris, George; Gibson, Gavin

2015-01-01

Genetic sequence data on pathogens have great potential to inform inference of their transmission dynamics ultimately leading to better disease control. Where genetic change and disease transmission occur on comparable timescales additional information can be inferred via the joint analysis of such genetic sequence data and epidemiological observations based on clinical symptoms and diagnostic tests. Although recently introduced approaches represent substantial progress, for computational reasons they approximate genuine joint inference of disease dynamics and genetic change in the pathogen population, capturing partially the joint epidemiological-evolutionary dynamics. Improved methods are needed to fully integrate such genetic data with epidemiological observations, for achieving a more robust inference of the transmission tree and other key epidemiological parameters such as latent periods. Here, building on current literature, a novel Bayesian framework is proposed that infers simultaneously and explicitly the transmission tree and unobserved transmitted pathogen sequences. Our framework facilitates the use of realistic likelihood functions and enables systematic and genuine joint inference of the epidemiological-evolutionary process from partially observed outbreaks. Using simulated data it is shown that this approach is able to infer accurately joint epidemiological-evolutionary dynamics, even when pathogen sequences and epidemiological data are incomplete, and when sequences are available for only a fraction of exposures. These results also characterise and quantify the value of incomplete and partial sequence data, which has important implications for sampling design, and demonstrate the abilities of the introduced method to identify multiple clusters within an outbreak. The framework is used to analyse an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the UK, enhancing current understanding of its transmission dynamics and evolutionary process. PMID:26599399

Polarization spectroscopy of the sodium dimer utilizing a triple-resonance technique in the presence of argon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arndt, Phillip; Horton, Timothy; McFarland, Jacob; Bayram, Burcin; Miami University Spectroscopy Team

2015-05-01

The collisional dynamics of molecular sodium in the 61Σg electronic state is under investigation using a triple resonance technique in the presence of argon. A continuous wave ring dye laser is used to populate specific rovibrational levels of the A1Σu electronic state. A pump-probe technique is then employed where the pump laser populates the 61Σg state, and the probe laser dumps the population to the B1Σu state. From this level, fluorescence is detected as the system decays to the X1Σg state. We measure the polarization of this signal in the presence of various argon pressures. We will present our current work as well as the processes involved in the experiment. Financial support from the National Science Foundation (Grant No. NSF-PHY-1309571) is gratefully acknowledged.

Evolutionary dynamics of fearfulness and boldness.

PubMed

Ji, Ting; Zhang, Boyu; Sun, Yuehua; Tao, Yi

2009-02-21

A negative relationship between reproductive effort and survival is consistent with life-history. Evolutionary dynamics and evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) for the trade-off between survival and reproduction are investigated using a simple model with two phenotypes, fearfulness and boldness. The dynamical stability of the pure strategy model and analysis of ESS conditions reveal that: (i) the simple coexistence of fearfulness and boldness is impossible; (ii) a small population size is favorable to fearfulness, but a large population size is favorable to boldness, i.e., neither fearfulness, nor boldness is always favored by natural selection; and (iii) the dynamics of population density is crucial for a proper understanding of the strategy dynamics.

Investigating the effect of chemical stress and resource ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Modeling exposure and recovery of fish and wildlife populations after stressor mitigation serves as a basis for evaluating population status and remediation success. The Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) is an important and well-studied model organism for understanding the effects of pollutants and other stressors in estuarine and marine ecosystems. Herein, we develop a density dependent matrix population model for Atlantic killifish that analyzes both size-structure and age class-structure of the population so that we could readily incorporate output from a dynamic energy budget (DEB) model currently under development. This population modeling approach emphasizes application in conjunction with field monitoring efforts (e.g., through effects-based monitoring programs) and/or laboratory analysis to link effects due to chemical stress to adverse outcomes in whole organisms and populations. We applied the model using data for killifish exposed to dioxin-like compounds, taken from a previously published study. Specifically, the model was used to investigate population trajectories for Atlantic killifish with dietary exposures to 112, 296, and 875 pg/g of dioxin with effects on fertility and survival rates. All effects were expressed relative to control fish. Further, the population model was employed to examine age and size distributions of a population exposed to resource limitation in addition to chemical stress. For each dietary exposure concentration o

Using dynamic population simulations to extend resource selection analyses and prioritize habitats for conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heinrichs, Julie; Aldridge, Cameron L.; O'Donnell, Michael; Schumaker, Nathan

2017-01-01

Prioritizing habitats for conservation is a challenging task, particularly for species with fluctuating populations and seasonally dynamic habitat needs. Although the use of resource selection models to identify and prioritize habitat for conservation is increasingly common, their ability to characterize important long-term habitats for dynamic populations are variable. To examine how habitats might be prioritized differently if resource selection was directly and dynamically linked with population fluctuations and movement limitations among seasonal habitats, we constructed a spatially explicit individual-based model for a dramatically fluctuating population requiring temporally varying resources. Using greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming as a case study, we used resource selection function maps to guide seasonal movement and habitat selection, but emergent population dynamics and simulated movement limitations modified long-term habitat occupancy. We compared priority habitats in RSF maps to long-term simulated habitat use. We examined the circumstances under which the explicit consideration of movement limitations, in combination with population fluctuations and trends, are likely to alter predictions of important habitats. In doing so, we assessed the future occupancy of protected areas under alternative population and habitat conditions. Habitat prioritizations based on resource selection models alone predicted high use in isolated parcels of habitat and in areas with low connectivity among seasonal habitats. In contrast, results based on more biologically-informed simulations emphasized central and connected areas near high-density populations, sometimes predicted to be low selection value. Dynamic models of habitat use can provide additional biological realism that can extend, and in some cases, contradict habitat use predictions generated from short-term or static resource selection analyses. The explicit inclusion of population dynamics and movement propensities via spatial simulation modeling frameworks may provide an informative means of predicting long-term habitat use, particularly for fluctuating populations with complex seasonal habitat needs. Importantly, our results indicate the possible need to consider habitat selection models as a starting point rather than the common end point for refining and prioritizing habitats for protection for cyclic and highly variable populations.

Modeling Sustainability: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Motesharrei, Safa; Rivas, Jorge; Kalnay, Eugenia

Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. Here, we argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, Earth System Models must be coupled withmore » Human System Models through bidirectional couplings representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as United Nations population projections.This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth–Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and thus requiring different policy interventions from current models. Lastly, the importance and imminence of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth–Human system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future generations.« less

Modeling Sustainability: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Motesharrei, Safa; Rivas, Jorge; Kalnay, Eugenia; Asrar, Ghassem R.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Cahalan, Robert F.; Cane, Mark A.; Colwell, Rita R.; Feng, Kuishuang; Franklin, Rachel S.;

Modeling Sustainability: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Motesharrei, Safa; Rivas, Jorge; Kalnay, Eugenia

Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. We argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, Earth System Models must be coupled with Humanmore » System Models through bidirectional couplings representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as United Nations population projections. This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth–Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and thus requiring different policy interventions from current models. The importance and imminence of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth–Human system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future generations.« less

Modeling Sustainability: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems

DOE PAGES

Motesharrei, Safa; Rivas, Jorge; Kalnay, Eugenia; ...

2016-12-11

Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. Here, we argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, Earth System Models must be coupled withmore » Human System Models through bidirectional couplings representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as United Nations population projections.This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth–Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and thus requiring different policy interventions from current models. Lastly, the importance and imminence of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth–Human system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future generations.« less

Single-trial dynamics of motor cortex and their applications to brain-machine interfaces

PubMed Central

Kao, Jonathan C.; Nuyujukian, Paul; Ryu, Stephen I.; Churchland, Mark M.; Cunningham, John P.; Shenoy, Krishna V.

2015-01-01

Increasing evidence suggests that neural population responses have their own internal drive, or dynamics, that describe how the neural population evolves through time. An important prediction of neural dynamical models is that previously observed neural activity is informative of noisy yet-to-be-observed activity on single-trials, and may thus have a denoising effect. To investigate this prediction, we built and characterized dynamical models of single-trial motor cortical activity. We find these models capture salient dynamical features of the neural population and are informative of future neural activity on single trials. To assess how neural dynamics may beneficially denoise single-trial neural activity, we incorporate neural dynamics into a brain–machine interface (BMI). In online experiments, we find that a neural dynamical BMI achieves substantially higher performance than its non-dynamical counterpart. These results provide evidence that neural dynamics beneficially inform the temporal evolution of neural activity on single trials and may directly impact the performance of BMIs. PMID:26220660

Population ecology of insect invasions and their management

Treesearch

Andrew M. Liebhold; Patrick C. Tobin

2008-01-01

During the establishment phase of a biological invasion, population dynamics are strongly influenced by Allee effects and stochastic dynamics, both of which may lead to extinction of low-density populations. Allee effects refer to a decline in population growth rate with a decline in abundance and can arise from various mechanisms. Strategies to eradicate newly...

Leading edge gypsy moth population dynamics

Treesearch

M. R. Carter; F. W. Ravlin; M. L. McManus

1991-01-01

Leading edge gypsy moth populations have been the focus of several intervention programs (MDIPM, AIPM). Knowledge of gypsy moth population dynamics in leading edge area is crucial for effective management. Populations in these areas tend to reach outbreak levels (noticeable defoliation) within three to four years after egg masses are first detected. Pheromone traps...

Understanding mechanisms that control fish spawning and larval recruitment: Parameter optimization of an Eulerian model (SEAPODYM-SP) with Peruvian anchovy and sardine eggs and larvae data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, Olga; Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Echevin, Vincent; Ayón, Patricia; Bertrand, Arnaud; Gaspar, Philippe

2014-04-01

The Spatial Ecosystem And Populations Dynamics Model "SEAPODYM", based on a system of Eulerian equations and initially developed for large pelagic fish (e.g., tuna), was modified to describe spawning habitat and eggs and larvae dynamics of small pelagic fish. The spawning habitat is critical since it controls the initial recruitment of larvae and the subsequent spatio-temporal variability of natural mortality during their drift with currents. A robust statistical approach based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation is presented to optimize the model parameters defining the spawning habitat and the eggs and larvae dynamics. To improve parameterization, eggs and larvae density observations are assimilated in the model. The model and its associated optimization approach allow investigating the significance of the mechanisms proposed to control fish spawning habitat and larval recruitment: temperature, prey abundance, trade-off between prey and predators, and retention and dispersion processes. An application to the Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) and sardine (Sardinops sagax) illustrates the ability of the model to simulate the main features of spatial dynamics of these two species in the Humboldt Current System. For both species, in climatological conditions, the main observed spatial patterns are well reproduced and are explained by the impact of prey and predator abundance and by physical retention with currents, while temperature has a lower impact. In agreement with observations, sardine larvae are mainly predicted in the northern part of the Peruvian shelf (5-10°S), while anchovy larvae extend further south. Deoxygenation, which can potentially limit the accessibility of adult fish to spawning areas, does not appear to have an impact in our model setting. Conversely, the observed seasonality in spawning activity, especially the spawning rest period in austral autumn, is not well simulated. It is proposed that this seasonal cycle is more likely driven by the spatio-temporal dynamics of adult fish constituting the spawning biomass and not yet included in the model.

Characterisation of a highly sensitive troponin I assay and its application to a cardio-healthy population.

PubMed

Koerbin, Gus; Tate, Jill; Potter, Julia M; Cavanaugh, Juleen; Glasgow, Nicholas; Hickman, Peter E

2012-02-03

Abbott Diagnostics have developed a new highly sensitive troponin I (hs-TnI) assay. We have assessed its analytical characteristics and applied the assay to a population of apparently cardio-healthy persons. We assessed imprecision, bias compared to the previous generation assay, matrix effects, and interferences and applied the assay to an apparently healthy population, deriving the 99th percentile limit of the distribution of values in reference populations for men and women separately. The dynamic range of the assay was ranged from 0.5-50,000 ng/L (pg/mL). The 10% CV was at a concentration of 3.9 ng/L, and the 20% CV was at a concentration of 1.8 ng/L. The new and current version of the TnI assay were highly correlated [slope: 0.98 (95%CI:0.88-1.07), y-intercept:1.20 (95%CI:-2.35-4.75) r²=0.99]. The 99th percentile limit of the distribution of values in a reference population was different for males and females: for males 14.0 ng/L and for females 11.1 ng/L and at these concentrations the assay CV was 5.0%. TnI was detectable in nearly all patient samples from the healthy reference population (98.6%). This new hs-TnI assay is able to measure to an order of magnitude lower than the current generation TnI assay from the same manufacturer. With TnI being detectable in nearly all apparently healthy subject samples this suggests that TnI presence does not always indicate cardiomyocyte necrosis.

Occupancy dynamics in a tropical bird community: unexpectedly high forest use by birds classified as non-forest species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruiz-Gutierrez, Viviana; Zipkin, Elise F.; Dhondt, Andre A.

2010-01-01

1. Worldwide loss of biodiversity necessitates a clear understanding of the factors driving population declines as well as informed predictions about which species and populations are at greatest risk. The biggest threat to the long-term persistence of populations is the reduction and changes in configuration of their natural habitat. 2. Inconsistencies have been noted in the responses of populations to the combined effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. These have been widely attributed to the effects of the matrix habitats in which remnant focal habitats are typically embedded. 3. We quantified the potential effects of the inter-patch matrix by estimating occupancy and colonization of forest and surrounding non-forest matrix (NF). We estimated species-specific parameters using a dynamic, multi-species hierarchical model on a bird community in southwestern Costa Rica. 4. Overall, we found higher probabilities of occupancy and colonization of forest relative to the NF across bird species, including those previously categorized as open habitat generalists not needing forest to persist. Forest dependency was a poor predictor of occupancy dynamics in our study region, largely predicting occupancy and colonization of only non-forest habitats. 5. Our results indicate that the protection of remnant forest habitats is key for the long-term persistence of all members of the bird community in this fragmented landscape, including species typically associated with open, non-forest habitats. 6.Synthesis and applications. We identified 39 bird species of conservation concern defined by having high estimates of forest occupancy, and low estimates of occupancy and colonization of non-forest. These species survive in forest but are unlikely to venture out into open, non-forested habitats, therefore, they are vulnerable to the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. Our hierarchical community-level model can be used to estimate species-specific occupancy dynamics for focal and inter-patch matrix habitats to identify which species within a community are likely to be impacted most by habitat loss and fragmentation. This model can be applied to other taxa (i.e. amphibians, mammals and insects) to estimate species and community occurrence dynamics in response to current environmental conditions and to make predictions in response to future changes in habitat configurations.

SPATIAL SCALE OF AUTOCORRELATION IN WISCONSIN FROG AND TOAD SURVEY DATA

EPA Science Inventory

The degree to which local population dynamics are correlated with nearby sites has important implications for metapopulation dynamics and landscape management. Spatially extensive monitoring data can be used to evaluate large-scale population dynamic processes. Our goals in this ...

AN INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODEL OF COTTUS POPULATION DYNAMICS

EPA Science Inventory

We explored population dynamics of a southern Appalachian population of Cottus bairdi using a spatially-explicit, individual-based model. The model follows daily growth, mortality, and spawning of individuals as a function of flow and temperature. We modeled movement of juveniles...

Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics of Episomes among Ecologically Cohesive Bacterial Populations

DOE PAGES

Xue, Hong; Cordero, Otto X.; Camas, Francisco M.; ...

2015-05-05

Although plasmids and other episomes are recognized as key players in horizontal gene transfer among microbes, their diversity and dynamics among ecologically structured host populations in the wild remain poorly understood. Here, we show that natural populations of marine Vibrionaceae bacteria host large numbers of families of episomes, consisting of plasmids and a surprisingly high fraction of plasmid-like temperate phages. Episomes are unevenly distributed among host populations, and contrary to the notion that high-density communities in biofilms act as hot spots of gene transfer, we identified a strong bias for episomes to occur in free-living as opposed to particle-attached cells.more » Mapping of episomal families onto host phylogeny shows that, with the exception of all phage and a few plasmid families, most are of recent evolutionary origin and appear to have spread rapidly by horizontal transfer. Such high eco-evolutionary turnover is particularly surprising for plasmids that are, based on previously suggested categorization, putatively nontransmissible, indicating that this type of plasmid is indeed frequently transferred by currently unknown mechanisms. Finally, analysis of recent gene transfer among plasmids reveals a network of extensive exchange connecting nearly all episomes. Genes functioning in plasmid transfer and maintenance are frequently exchanged, suggesting that plasmids can be rapidly transformed from one category to another. The broad distribution of episomes among distantly related hosts and the observed promiscuous recombination patterns show how episomes can offer their hosts rapid assembly and dissemination of novel functions.« less

Development of an establishment scheme for a DGVM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Xiang; Zeng, Xiaodong; Zhu, Jiawen; Shao, Pu

2016-07-01

Environmental changes are expected to shift the distribution and abundance of vegetation by determining seedling establishment and success. However, most current ecosystem models only focus on the impacts of abiotic factors on biogeophysics (e.g., global distribution, etc.), ignoring their roles in the population dynamics (e.g., seedling establishment rate, mortality rate, etc.) of ecological communities. Such neglect may lead to biases in ecosystem population dynamics (such as changes in population density for woody species in forest ecosystems) and characteristics. In the present study, a new establishment scheme for introducing soil water as a function rather than a threshold was developed and validated, using version 1.0 of the IAP-DGVM as a test bed. The results showed that soil water in the establishment scheme had a remarkable influence on forest transition zones. Compared with the original scheme, the new scheme significantly improved simulations of tree population density, especially in the peripheral areas of forests and transition zones. Consequently, biases in forest fractional coverage were reduced in approximately 78.8% of the global grid cells. The global simulated areas of tree, shrub, grass and bare soil performed better, where the relative biases were reduced from 34.3% to 4.8%, from 27.6% to 13.1%, from 55.2% to 9.2%, and from 37.6% to 3.6%, respectively. Furthermore, the new scheme had more reasonable dependencies of plant functional types (PFTs) on mean annual precipitation, and described the correct dominant PFTs in the tropical rainforest peripheral areas of the Amazon and central Africa.

PIC simulations of wave-particle interactions with an initial electron velocity distribution from a kinetic ring current model

DOE PAGES

Yu, Yiqun; Delzanno, Gian Luca; Jordanova, Vania Koleva; ...

2017-07-15

Whistler wave-particle interactions play an important role in the Earth inner magnetospheric dynamics and have been the subject of numerous investigations. By running a global kinetic ring current model (RAM-SCB) in a storm event occurred on Oct 23–24 2002, we obtain the ring current electron distribution at a selected location at MLT of 9 and L of 6 where the electron distribution is composed of a warm population in the form of a partial ring in the velocity space (with energy around 15 keV) in addition to a cool population with a Maxwellian-like distribution. The warm population is likely frommore » the injected plasma sheet electrons during substorm injections that supply fresh source to the inner magnetosphere. These electron distributions are then used as input in an implicit particle-in-cell code (iPIC3D) to study whistler-wave generation and the subsequent wave-particle interactions. Here, we find that whistler waves are excited and propagate in the quasi-parallel direction along the background magnetic field. Several different wave modes are instantaneously generated with different growth rates and frequencies. The wave mode at the maximum growth rate has a frequency around 0.62ω ce, which corresponds to a parallel resonant energy of 2.5 keV. Linear theory analysis of wave growth is in excellent agreement with the simulation results. These waves grow initially due to the injected warm electrons and are later damped due to cyclotron absorption by electrons whose energy is close to the resonant energy and can effectively attenuate waves. The warm electron population overall experiences net energy loss and anisotropy drop while moving along the diffusion surfaces towards regions of lower phase space density, while the cool electron population undergoes heating when the waves grow, suggesting the cross-population interactions.« less

PIC simulations of wave-particle interactions with an initial electron velocity distribution from a kinetic ring current model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, Yiqun; Delzanno, Gian Luca; Jordanova, Vania Koleva

Whistler wave-particle interactions play an important role in the Earth inner magnetospheric dynamics and have been the subject of numerous investigations. By running a global kinetic ring current model (RAM-SCB) in a storm event occurred on Oct 23–24 2002, we obtain the ring current electron distribution at a selected location at MLT of 9 and L of 6 where the electron distribution is composed of a warm population in the form of a partial ring in the velocity space (with energy around 15 keV) in addition to a cool population with a Maxwellian-like distribution. The warm population is likely frommore » the injected plasma sheet electrons during substorm injections that supply fresh source to the inner magnetosphere. These electron distributions are then used as input in an implicit particle-in-cell code (iPIC3D) to study whistler-wave generation and the subsequent wave-particle interactions. Here, we find that whistler waves are excited and propagate in the quasi-parallel direction along the background magnetic field. Several different wave modes are instantaneously generated with different growth rates and frequencies. The wave mode at the maximum growth rate has a frequency around 0.62ω ce, which corresponds to a parallel resonant energy of 2.5 keV. Linear theory analysis of wave growth is in excellent agreement with the simulation results. These waves grow initially due to the injected warm electrons and are later damped due to cyclotron absorption by electrons whose energy is close to the resonant energy and can effectively attenuate waves. The warm electron population overall experiences net energy loss and anisotropy drop while moving along the diffusion surfaces towards regions of lower phase space density, while the cool electron population undergoes heating when the waves grow, suggesting the cross-population interactions.« less

Evolutionary dynamics of cooperation in neutral populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž

2018-01-01

Cooperation is a difficult proposition in the face of Darwinian selection. Those that defect have an evolutionary advantage over cooperators who should therefore die out. However, spatial structure enables cooperators to survive through the formation of homogeneous clusters, which is the hallmark of network reciprocity. Here we go beyond this traditional setup and study the spatiotemporal dynamics of cooperation in a population of populations. We use the prisoner's dilemma game as the mathematical model and show that considering several populations simultaneously gives rise to fascinating spatiotemporal dynamics and pattern formation. Even the simplest assumption that strategies between different populations are payoff-neutral with one another results in the spontaneous emergence of cyclic dominance, where defectors of one population become prey of cooperators in the other population, and vice versa. Moreover, if social interactions within different populations are characterized by significantly different temptations to defect, we observe that defectors in the population with the largest temptation counterintuitively vanish the fastest, while cooperators that hang on eventually take over the whole available space. Our results reveal that considering the simultaneous presence of different populations significantly expands the complexity of evolutionary dynamics in structured populations, and it allows us to understand the stability of cooperation under adverse conditions that could never be bridged by network reciprocity alone.

Long-term dynamics of natural populations of Schistosoma mansoni among Rattus rattus in patchy environment.

PubMed

Théron, A; Pointier, J P; Morand, S; Imbert-Establet, D; Borel, G

1992-04-01

Dynamics of natural populations of Schistosoma mansoni were studied during 8 consecutive years among Rattus rattus populations from 8 transmission sites of the marshy forest focus of Guadeloupe (French West Indies). The schistosome population is over-dispersed (k = 0.119) within the murine hosts and ecological factors linked to the patchy environment may be responsible for such aggregated distribution. Analysis of the spatio-temporal variations in prevalences, intensities and abundances showed limited variations of the infection during the 8 years at the level of the whole parasite population but great spatial heterogeneity at the level of local schistosome populations. Inter-populational genetic variability linked to the degree of adaptation of this human parasite to the murine host may explain differences in transmission dynamics between the local populations of S. mansoni.

Evolutionary Game Theory in Growing Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melbinger, Anna; Cremer, Jonas; Frey, Erwin

2010-10-01

Existing theoretical models of evolution focus on the relative fitness advantages of different mutants in a population while the dynamic behavior of the population size is mostly left unconsidered. We present here a generic stochastic model which combines the growth dynamics of the population and its internal evolution. Our model thereby accounts for the fact that both evolutionary and growth dynamics are based on individual reproduction events and hence are highly coupled and stochastic in nature. We exemplify our approach by studying the dilemma of cooperation in growing populations and show that genuinely stochastic events can ease the dilemma by leading to a transient but robust increase in cooperation.

Hierarchical demographic approaches for assessing invasion dynamics of non-indigenous species: An example using northern snakehead (Channa argus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jiao, Y.; Lapointe, N.W.R.; Angermeier, P.L.; Murphy, B.R.

2009-01-01

Models of species' demographic features are commonly used to understand population dynamics and inform management tactics. Hierarchical demographic models are ideal for the assessment of non-indigenous species because our knowledge of non-indigenous populations is usually limited, data on demographic traits often come from a species' native range, these traits vary among populations, and traits are likely to vary considerably over time as species adapt to new environments. Hierarchical models readily incorporate this spatiotemporal variation in species' demographic traits by representing demographic parameters as multi-level hierarchies. As is done for traditional non-hierarchical matrix models, sensitivity and elasticity analyses are used to evaluate the contributions of different life stages and parameters to estimates of population growth rate. We applied a hierarchical model to northern snakehead (Channa argus), a fish currently invading the eastern United States. We used a Monte Carlo approach to simulate uncertainties in the sensitivity and elasticity analyses and to project future population persistence under selected management tactics. We gathered key biological information on northern snakehead natural mortality, maturity and recruitment in its native Asian environment. We compared the model performance with and without hierarchy of parameters. Our results suggest that ignoring the hierarchy of parameters in demographic models may result in poor estimates of population size and growth and may lead to erroneous management advice. In our case, the hierarchy used multi-level distributions to simulate the heterogeneity of demographic parameters across different locations or situations. The probability that the northern snakehead population will increase and harm the native fauna is considerable. Our elasticity and prognostic analyses showed that intensive control efforts immediately prior to spawning and/or juvenile-dispersal periods would be more effective (and probably require less effort) than year-round control efforts. Our study demonstrates the importance of considering the hierarchy of parameters in estimating population growth rate and evaluating different management strategies for non-indigenous invasive species. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Adaptive Management of Bull Trout Populations in the Lemhi Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, James T.; Tyre, Andrew J.; Converse, Sarah J.; Bogich, Tiffany L.; Miller, Damien; Post van der Burg, Max; Thomas, Carmen; Thompson, Ralph J.; Wood, Jeri; Brewer, Donna; Runge, Michael C.

2011-01-01

The bull trout Salvelinus confluentus, a stream-living salmonid distributed in drainages of the northwestern United States, is listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act because of rangewide declines. One proposed recovery action is the reconnection of tributaries in the Lemhi Basin. Past water use policies in this core area disconnected headwater spawning sites from downstream habitat and have led to the loss of migratory life history forms. We developed an adaptive management framework to analyze which types of streams should be prioritized for reconnection under a proposed Habitat Conservation Plan. We developed a Stochastic Dynamic Program that identified optimal policies over time under four different assumptions about the nature of the migratory behavior and the effects of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis on subpopulations of bull trout. In general, given the current state of the system and the uncertainties about the dynamics, the optimal policy would be to connect streams that are currently occupied by bull trout. We also estimated the value of information as the difference between absolute certainty about which of our four assumptions were correct, and a model averaged optimization assuming no knowledge. Overall there is little to be gained by learning about the dynamics of the system in its current state, although in other parts of the state space reducing uncertainties about the system would be very valuable. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis; the optimal decision at the current state does not change even when parameter values are changed up to 75% of the baseline values. Overall, the exercise demonstrates that it is possible to apply adaptive management principles to threatened and endangered species, but logistical and data availability constraints make detailed analyses difficult.

[The dynamics of heath indicators of population of industrial town].

PubMed

Kalinkin, D E; Karpov, A B; Takhauov, R M; Samoĭlova, Iu A

2013-01-01

The article presents the results of analysis of dynamics of health indicators of population of industrial town (medical demographic indicators, disability, morbidity of social hygienically important diseases) during 1970-2010. The classified administrative territorial municipality of Seversk constructed near the Siberian chemical industrial center, the internationally first-rate complex of nuclear industry enterprises was used as a research base. It is demonstrated that dynamics of health indicators of studied population had such negative tendencies as rapid population ageing, population loss due to decrease of natality and increase of mortality (population of able-bodied age included), prevalence of cardio-vascular diseases, malignant neoplasms and external causes, chronization of diseases. The established tendencies are to be considered in management decision making targeted to support and promote population health in industrial towns.

Population-reaction model and microbial experimental ecosystems for understanding hierarchical dynamics of ecosystems.

PubMed

Hosoda, Kazufumi; Tsuda, Soichiro; Kadowaki, Kohmei; Nakamura, Yutaka; Nakano, Tadashi; Ishii, Kojiro

2016-02-01

Understanding ecosystem dynamics is crucial as contemporary human societies face ecosystem degradation. One of the challenges that needs to be recognized is the complex hierarchical dynamics. Conventional dynamic models in ecology often represent only the population level and have yet to include the dynamics of the sub-organism level, which makes an ecosystem a complex adaptive system that shows characteristic behaviors such as resilience and regime shifts. The neglect of the sub-organism level in the conventional dynamic models would be because integrating multiple hierarchical levels makes the models unnecessarily complex unless supporting experimental data are present. Now that large amounts of molecular and ecological data are increasingly accessible in microbial experimental ecosystems, it is worthwhile to tackle the questions of their complex hierarchical dynamics. Here, we propose an approach that combines microbial experimental ecosystems and a hierarchical dynamic model named population-reaction model. We present a simple microbial experimental ecosystem as an example and show how the system can be analyzed by a population-reaction model. We also show that population-reaction models can be applied to various ecological concepts, such as predator-prey interactions, climate change, evolution, and stability of diversity. Our approach will reveal a path to the general understanding of various ecosystems and organisms. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Harnessing Knowledge on Very Important Pharmacogenes CYP2C9 and CYP2C19 Variation for Precision Medicine in Resource-Limited Global Conflict Zones.

PubMed

Barlas, İbrahim Ömer; Sezgin, Orhan; Dandara, Collet; Türköz, Gözde; Yengel, Emre; Cindi, Zinhle; Ankaralı, Handan; Şardaş, Semra

2016-10-01

Pharmacogenomics harnesses the utility of a patient's genome (n = 1) in decisions on which therapeutic drugs and in what amounts should be administered. Often, patients with shared ancestry present with comparable genetic profiles that predict drug response. However, populations are not static, thus, often, population mobility through migration, especially enmasse as is seen for refugees, changes the pharmacogenetic profiles of resultant populations and therefore observed responses to commonly used therapeutic drugs. For example, in the aftermath of the Syrian civil war since 2011, millions have fled their homes to neighboring countries in the Middle East. The growing permanence of refugees and mass migrations is a call to shift our focus in the life sciences community from old models of pharmaceutical innovation. These seismic social changes demand faster decisions for "population-to-population bridging," whereby novel drugs developed in or for particular regions/countries can meet with rational regulatory decisions/approval in world regions impacted by migrant/refugee populations whose profiles are dynamic, such as in the Eastern Mediterranean region at present. Thus, it is important to characterize and report on the prevalence of pharmacogenes that affect commonly used medications and predict if population changes may call for attention to particular differences that may impact health of patients. Thus, we report here on four single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) variations in CYP2C9 and CYP2C19 genes among Mersin-Turkish healthy volunteers in the Mersin Province in the Eastern Mediterranean region that is currently hosting a vast number of migrant populations from Syria. Both CYP2C9 and CYP2C19 are very important pharmacogene molecular targets. We compare and report here on the observed SNP genetic variation in our sample with data on 12 world populations from dbSNP and discuss the feasibility of forecasting the pharmacokinetics of drugs utilized by migrant communities in Mersin and the Eastern Mediterranean region. This study can serve as a catalyst to invest in research in Syrian populations currently living in the Eastern Mediterranean. The findings have salience for rapid and rational regulatory decision-making for worldwide precision medicine and, specifically, "pharmacogenovigilance-guided bridging of pharmacokinetics" across world populations in the current era of planetary scale migration.

Current and Future Effects of Climate Change on Montane Amphibians

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corn, S.

2002-05-01

Breeding phenology of amphibians in inextricably linked to weather, and change in the timing of breeding resulting from climate change may have consequences for the fitness of individuals and may affect persistence of amphibian populations. Amphibians in some north temperate locations have been observed to breed earlier in recent years in response to warmer spring temperatures, but this is not a universal phenomenon. In mountain populations, phenology is influenced by snow deposition as much as temperature. A trend towards earlier breeding, associated with increasing El Niño frequency, may be occurring in the Cascade Mountains in Oregon, but only at lower elevations. There is no evidence for changes in the dates of breeding activity by amphibians in the Rocky Mountains. Too few amphibian species have been studied, and those for which data exist have been studied for too brief a span of years to allow general conclusions about the effects of climate change. However, regardless of whether climate change has contributed to current amphibian declines, changes in temperature and the extent and duration of snow cover predicted for the next century will have increasingly severe consequences for the persistence of some species. Additional observations from amphibian populations, and spatial and temporal modeling of climate variables are needed to generate predictions of past and future breeding phenology, and the effects on amphibian population dynamics.

First Results of Modeling Radiation Belt Electron Dynamics with the SAMI3 Plasmasphere Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komar, C. M.; Glocer, A.; Huba, J.; Fok, M. C. H.; Kang, S. B.; Buzulukova, N.

2017-12-01

The radiation belts were one of the first discoveries of the Space Age some sixty years ago and radiation belt models have been improving since the discovery of the radiation belts. The plasmasphere is one region that has been critically important to determining the dynamics of radiation belt populations. This region of space plays a critical role in describing the distribution of chorus and magnetospheric hiss waves throughout the inner magnetosphere. Both of these waves have been shown to interact with energetic electrons in the radiation belts and can result in the energization or loss of radiation belt electrons. However, radiation belt models have been historically limited in describing the distribution of cold plasmaspheric plasma and have relied on empirically determined plasmasphere models. Some plasmasphere models use an azimuthally symmetric distribution of the plasmasphere which can fail to capture important plasmaspheric dynamics such as the development of plasmaspheric drainage plumes. Previous work have coupled the kinetic bounce-averaged Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere (CIMI) model used to model ring current and radiation belt populations with the Block-adaptive Tree Solar wind Roe-type Upwind Scheme (BATSRUS) global magnetohydrodynamic model to self-consistently obtain the magnetospheric magnetic field and ionospheric potential. The present work will utilize this previous coupling and will additionally couple the SAMI3 plasmasphere model to better represent the dynamics on the plasmasphere and its role in determining the distribution of waves throughout the inner magnetosphere. First results on the relevance of chorus, hiss, and ultralow frequency waves on radiation belt electron dynamics will be discussed in context of the June 1st, 2013 storm-time dropout event.

Exploring Population Admixture Dynamics via Empirical and Simulated Genome-wide Distribution of Ancestral Chromosomal Segments

PubMed Central

Jin, Wenfei; Wang, Sijia; Wang, Haifeng; Jin, Li; Xu, Shuhua

2012-01-01

The processes of genetic admixture determine the haplotype structure and linkage disequilibrium patterns of the admixed population, which is important for medical and evolutionary studies. However, most previous studies do not consider the inherent complexity of admixture processes. Here we proposed two approaches to explore population admixture dynamics, and we demonstrated, by analyzing genome-wide empirical and simulated data, that the approach based on the distribution of chromosomal segments of distinct ancestry (CSDAs) was more powerful than that based on the distribution of individual ancestry proportions. Analysis of 1,890 African Americans showed that a continuous gene flow model, in which the African American population continuously received gene flow from European populations over about 14 generations, best explained the admixture dynamics of African Americans among several putative models. Interestingly, we observed that some African Americans had much more European ancestry than the simulated samples, indicating substructures of local ancestries in African Americans that could have been caused by individuals from some particular lineages having repeatedly admixed with people of European ancestry. In contrast, the admixture dynamics of Mexicans could be explained by a gradual admixture model in which the Mexican population continuously received gene flow from both European and Amerindian populations over about 24 generations. Our results also indicated that recent gene flows from Sub-Saharan Africans have contributed to the gene pool of Middle Eastern populations such as Mozabite, Bedouin, and Palestinian. In summary, this study not only provides approaches to explore population admixture dynamics, but also advances our understanding on population history of African Americans, Mexicans, and Middle Eastern populations. PMID:23103229

Demographic monitoring and population viability analysis of two rare beardtongues from the Uinta Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCaffery, Rebecca M.; Reisor, Rita; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Brunson, Jessi

2014-01-01

Energy development, in combination with other environmental stressors, poses a persistent threat to rare species endemic to the energy-producing regions of the Western United States. Demographic analyses of monitored populations can provide key information on the natural dynamics of threatened plant and animal populations, and how they might be affected by ongoing and future development. In the Uinta Basin in Utah and Colorado, Graham’s beardtongue (Penstemon grahamii) and White River beardtongue (Penstemon scariosus var. albifluvis) are two rare endemic wildflowers that persist on oil shale habitats heavily impacted by current energy exploration and development, and slated for expanded traditional drilling and oil shale development. We described demographic characteristics and population viability for two populations of each species that have been monitored since 2004. First, we measured population size, survival rates, transitions between life stages, and recruitment using individually marked plants at the four study areas. Then, we used matrix population models to determine stochastic population growth rates (λ) and the probability that each population would persist 50 years into the future, given current conditions. The two P. grahamii study plots had small populations averaging 70 adult plants, and relatively constant and high survival in both vegetative and flowering plants. The two P. scariosus var. albifluvis study plots had populations that averaged 120 adult plants, with high and stable survival in flowering plants and variable survival in vegetative plants. Recruitment of new seedlings into all populations was low and variable, with most recruitment occurring in one or two years. Both P. grahamii populations had λ near 1.0 (stable). One P. scariosus var. albifluvis population appeared to be declining (λ=0.97), while the other was increasing (λ=1.16). Our analyses reveal populations that appear relatively stable, but that are susceptible to declines now and into the future. Increases in environmental variability, deterministic changes in habitat conditions or stressors, or a single catastrophic event could all have immediately deleterious impacts on the long-term growth trajectory of these populations.

Plague epizootic cycles in Central Asia.

PubMed

Reijniers, Jonas; Begon, Mike; Ageyev, Vladimir S; Leirs, Herwig

2014-06-01

Infection thresholds, widely used in disease epidemiology, may operate on host abundance and, if present, on vector abundance. For wildlife populations, host and vector abundances often vary greatly across years and consequently the threshold may be crossed regularly, both up- and downward. Moreover, vector and host abundances may be interdependent, which may affect the infection dynamics. Theory predicts that if the relevant abundance, or combination of abundances, is above the threshold, then the infection is able to spread; if not, it is bound to fade out. In practice, though, the observed level of infection may depend more on past than on current abundances. Here, we study the temporal dynamics of plague (Yersinia pestis infection), its vector (flea) and its host (great gerbil) in the PreBalkhash region in Kazakhstan. We describe how host and vector abundances interact over time and how this interaction drives the dynamics of the system around the infection threshold, consequently affecting the proportion of plague-infected sectors. We also explore the importance of the interplay between biological and detectability delays in generating the observed dynamics.

System Dynamics to Climate-Driven Water Budget Analysis in the Eastern Snake Plains Aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, J.; Contor, B.; Wylie, A.; Johnson, G.; Allen, R. G.

2010-12-01

Climate variability, weather extremes and climate change continue to threaten the sustainability of water resources in the western United States. Given current climate change projections, increasing temperature is likely to modify the timing, form, and intensity of precipitation events, which consequently affect regional and local hydrologic cycles. As a result, drought, water shortage, and subsequent water conflicts may become an increasing threat in monotone hydrologic systems in arid lands, such as the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer (ESPA). The ESPA, in particular, is a critical asset in the state of Idaho. It is known as the economic lifeblood for more than half of Idaho’s population so that water resources availability and aquifer management due to climate change is of great interest, especially over the next few decades. In this study, we apply system dynamics as a methodology with which to address dynamically complex problems in ESPA’s water resources management. Aquifer recharge and discharge dynamics are coded in STELLA modeling system as input and output, respectively to identify long-term behavior of aquifer responses to climate-driven hydrological changes.

Reintroducing Guanaco in the Upper Belt of Central Argentina: Using Population Viability Analysis to Evaluate Extinction Risk and Management Priorities

PubMed Central

Barri, Fernando Rafael

2016-01-01

Wildlife reintroduction is an increasingly used strategy to reverse anthropocene defaunation. For the purpose of ecosystem restoration, in 2007 the guanaco (Lama guanicoe) was reintroduced to the Quebrada del Condorito National Park, situated in the mountains of central Argentina. With the aim of developing management recommendations, the project included permanently monitoring the population to evaluate its dynamics and the ecological response of the individuals released into the area. Nine years later and after two releases of guanacos (113 individuals in 2007 without and 25 in 2011 with a pre-adaptation period), only 24 individuals, which conform three reproductive groups, and one group of solitary males were settled in the Park. Here I modeled a population viability analysis to evaluate extinction risk, using VORTEX software. Initial population structure, specified age distribution, mortality and reproductive rates, and mate monopolization recorded during field work were used in the model, whereas the remaining used demographic parameters, such as age of first offspring, maximum number of broods per year, mean foaling rate, and length of fecundity period, were taken from the literature. Each of the three different scenarios (without supplementation of individuals, and with a realistic and optimistic supplementation) and two possible catastrophic events (fires and food shortage) covering 100 years was repeated 1000 times. Even though the guanaco reintroduction project can be considered to have been partially successful since its start, the model predicts that the current reintroduced population could be extinct in the next few decades if no reinforcements occur, and that only a continuous supplementation can reach the probability that the population survives over the next 100 years. I conclude that, so far, the current population is at a high risk of extinction if further supplementation of individuals is discontinued. PMID:27741302

Reintroducing Guanaco in the Upper Belt of Central Argentina: Using Population Viability Analysis to Evaluate Extinction Risk and Management Priorities.

PubMed

Barri, Fernando Rafael

2016-01-01

Wildlife reintroduction is an increasingly used strategy to reverse anthropocene defaunation. For the purpose of ecosystem restoration, in 2007 the guanaco (Lama guanicoe) was reintroduced to the Quebrada del Condorito National Park, situated in the mountains of central Argentina. With the aim of developing management recommendations, the project included permanently monitoring the population to evaluate its dynamics and the ecological response of the individuals released into the area. Nine years later and after two releases of guanacos (113 individuals in 2007 without and 25 in 2011 with a pre-adaptation period), only 24 individuals, which conform three reproductive groups, and one group of solitary males were settled in the Park. Here I modeled a population viability analysis to evaluate extinction risk, using VORTEX software. Initial population structure, specified age distribution, mortality and reproductive rates, and mate monopolization recorded during field work were used in the model, whereas the remaining used demographic parameters, such as age of first offspring, maximum number of broods per year, mean foaling rate, and length of fecundity period, were taken from the literature. Each of the three different scenarios (without supplementation of individuals, and with a realistic and optimistic supplementation) and two possible catastrophic events (fires and food shortage) covering 100 years was repeated 1000 times. Even though the guanaco reintroduction project can be considered to have been partially successful since its start, the model predicts that the current reintroduced population could be extinct in the next few decades if no reinforcements occur, and that only a continuous supplementation can reach the probability that the population survives over the next 100 years. I conclude that, so far, the current population is at a high risk of extinction if further supplementation of individuals is discontinued.

POPULATION DYNAMICS OF HISPID COTTON RATS (SIGMODON HISPIDUS) ACROSS A NITROGEN AMENDED LANDSCAPE

EPA Science Inventory

Population dynamics of some small-mammal species appear to be regulated by plant-community structure, vegetative cover, plant diversity, and food quality. Thus, plant community changes associated with nitrogen additions would likely impact dynamics and structure of small-mammal ...

Annual dynamics of wild bee densities: attractiveness and productivity effects of oilseed rape.

PubMed

Riedinger, Verena; Mitesser, Oliver; Hovestadt, Thomas; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Holzschuh, Andrea

2015-05-01

Mass-flowering crops may affect long-term population dynamics, but effects on pollinators have never been studied across several years. We monitored wild bees in oilseed rape fields in 16 landscapes in Germany in two consecutive years. Effects on bee densities of landscape oilseed rape cover in the years of monitoring and in the previous years were evaluated with landscape data from three consecutive years. We fit empirical data to a mechanistic model to provide estimates for oilseed rape attractiveness and its effect on bee productivity in comparison to the rest of the landscape, and we evaluated consequences for pollinator densities in consecutive years. Our results show that high oilseed rape cover in the previous year enhances current densities of wild bees (except for bumble bees). Moreover, we show a strong attractiveness of and dilution on (i.e., decreasing bee densities with increasing landscape oilseed rape cover) oilseed rape for bees during flowering in the current year, modifying the effect of the previous year's oilseed rape cover in the case of wild bees (excluding Bombus). As long as other factors such as nesting sites or natural enemies do not limit bee reproduction, our findings suggest long-term positive effects of mass-flowering crops on bee populations, at least for non-Bombus generalists, which possibly help to maintain crop pollination services even when crop area increases. Similar effects are conceivable for other organisms providing ecosystem services in annual crops and should be considered in future studies.

Analysis of Evolutionary Processes of Species Jump in Waterfowl Parvovirus

PubMed Central

Fan, Wentao; Sun, Zhaoyu; Shen, Tongtong; Xu, Danning; Huang, Kehe; Zhou, Jiyong; Song, Suquan; Yan, Liping

2017-01-01

Waterfowl parvoviruses are classified into goose parvovirus (GPV) and Muscovy duck parvovirus (MDPV) according to their antigenic features and host preferences. A novel duck parvovirus (NDPV), identified as a new variant of GPV, is currently infecting ducks, thus causing considerable economic loss. This study analyzed the molecular evolution and population dynamics of the emerging parvovirus capsid gene to investigate the evolutionary processes concerning the host shift of NDPV. Two important amino acids changes (Asn-489 and Asn-650) were identified in NDPV, which may be responsible for host shift of NDPV. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that the currently circulating NDPV originated from the GPV lineage. The Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo tree indicated that the NDPV diverged from GPV approximately 20 years ago. Evolutionary rate analyses demonstrated that GPV evolved with 7.674 × 10-4 substitutions/site/year, and the data for MDPV was 5.237 × 10-4 substitutions/site/year, whereas the substitution rate in NDPV branch was 2.25 × 10-3 substitutions/site/year. Meanwhile, viral population dynamics analysis revealed that the GPV major clade, including NDPV, grew exponentially at a rate of 1.717 year-1. Selection pressure analysis showed that most sites are subject to strong purifying selection and no positively selected sites were found in NDPV. The unique immune-epitopes in waterfowl parvovirus were also estimated, which may be helpful for the prediction of antibody binding sites against NDPV in ducks. PMID:28352261

Regional Population Dynamics

Treesearch

Andrew Birt

2011-01-01

The population dynamics of the southern pine beetle (SPB) exhibit characteristic fluctuations between relatively long endemic and shorter outbreak periods. Populations exhibit complex and hierarchical spatial structure with beetles and larvae aggregating within individual trees, infestations with multiple infested trees, and regional outbreaks that comprise a large...

Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics.

PubMed

Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei

2018-01-01

In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei

2018-01-01

In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

Dynamical friction in the primordial neutrino sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okoli, Chiamaka; Scrimgeour, Morag I.; Afshordi, Niayesh; Hudson, Michael J.

2017-06-01

Standard big bang cosmology predicts a cosmic neutrino background at Tν ≃ 1.95 K. Given the current neutrino oscillation measurements, we know most neutrinos move at large, but non-relativistic, velocities. Therefore, dark matter haloes moving in the sea of primordial neutrinos form a neutrino wake behind them, which would slow them down, due to the effect of dynamical friction. In this paper, we quantify this effect for realistic haloes, in the context of the halo model of structure formation, and show that it scales as m_ν ^4× relative velocity and monotonically grows with the halo mass. Galaxy redshift surveys can be sensitive to this effect (at >3σ confidence level, depending on survey properties, neutrino mass and hierarchy) through redshift space distortions of distinct galaxy populations.

Metapopulation dynamics and the evolution of dispersal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parvinen, Kalle

A metapopulation consists of local populations living in habitat patches. In this chapter metapopulation dynamics and the evolution of dispersal is studied in two metapopulation models defined in discrete time. In the first model there are finitely many patches, and in the other one there are infinitely many patches, which allows to incorporate catastrophes into the model. In the first model, cyclic local population dynamics can be either synchronized or not, and increasing dispersal both synchronizes and stabilizes metapopulation dynamics. On the other hand, the type of dynamics has a strong effect on the evolution of dispersal. In case of non-synchronized metapopulation dynamics, dispersal is much more beneficial than in the case of synchronized metapopulation dynamics. Local dynamics has a substantial effect also on the possibility of evolutionary branching in both models. Furthermore, with an Allee effect in the local dynamics of the second model, even evolutionary suicide can occur. It is an evolutionary process in which a viable population adapts in such a way that it can no longer persist.

Impact of transient climate change upon Grouse population dynamics in the Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirovano, Andrea; Bocchiola, Daniele

2010-05-01

Understanding the effect of short to medium term weather condition, and of transient global warming upon wildlife species life history is essential to predict the demographic consequences therein, and possibly develop adaptation strategies, especially in game species, where hunting mortality may play an important role in population dynamics. We carried out a preliminary investigation of observed impact of weather variables upon population dynamics indexes of three alpine Grouse species (i.e. Rock Ptarmigan, Lagopus Mutus, Black Grouse, Tetrao Tetrix, Rock Partridge, Alectoris Graeca), nested within central Italian Alps, based upon 15 years (1995-2009) of available censuses data, provided by the Sondrio Province authority. We used a set of climate variables already highlighted within recent literature for carrying considerable bearing on Grouse population dynamics, including e.g. temperature at hatching time and during winter, snow cover at nesting, and precipitation during nursing period. We then developed models of Grouses' population dynamics by explicitly driving population change according to their dependence upon the significant weather variables and population density and we evaluated objective indexes to assess the so obtained predictive power. Eventually, we develop projection of future local climate, based upon locally derived trends, and upon projections from GCMs (A2 IPCC storyline) already validated for the area, to project forward in time (until 2100 or so) the significant climatic variables, which we then use to force population dynamics models of the target species. The projected patterns obtained through this exercise are discussed and compared against those expected under stationary climate conditions at present, and preliminary conclusions are drawn.

The Analysis of Cell Population Dynamics in Mammary Gland Development and Tumorigenesis

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-08-01

AD Award Number: DAMD17-03-1-0498 TITLE: The Analysis of Cell Population Dynamics in Mammary Gland Development and Tumorigenesis PRINCIPAL...Summary 1 Aug 2004 - 31 Jul 2005 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER The Analysis of Cell Population Dynamics in Mammary Gland Development and...STATEMENT Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT The mammary gland is made up of several epithelial cell

Stochastic hybrid delay population dynamics: well-posed models and extinction.

PubMed

Yuan, Chenggui; Mao, Xuerong; Lygeros, John

2009-01-01

Nonlinear differential equations have been used for decades for studying fluctuations in the populations of species, interactions of species with the environment, and competition and symbiosis between species. Over the years, the original non-linear models have been embellished with delay terms, stochastic terms and more recently discrete dynamics. In this paper, we investigate stochastic hybrid delay population dynamics (SHDPD), a very general class of population dynamics that comprises all of these phenomena. For this class of systems, we provide sufficient conditions to ensure that SHDPD have global positive, ultimately bounded solutions, a minimum requirement for a realistic, well-posed model. We then study the question of extinction and establish conditions under which an ecosystem modelled by SHDPD is doomed.