Software risk management through independent verification and validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Callahan, John R.; Zhou, Tong C.; Wood, Ralph

1995-01-01

Software project managers need tools to estimate and track project goals in a continuous fashion before, during, and after development of a system. In addition, they need an ability to compare the current project status with past project profiles to validate management intuition, identify problems, and then direct appropriate resources to the sources of problems. This paper describes a measurement-based approach to calculating the risk inherent in meeting project goals that leverages past project metrics and existing estimation and tracking models. We introduce the IV&V Goal/Questions/Metrics model, explain its use in the software development life cycle, and describe our attempts to validate the model through the reverse engineering of existing projects.

Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe – their causes and consequences for decision making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kundzewicz, Z. W.; Krysanova, V.; Dankers, R.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.; Hattermann, F. F.; Huang, S.; Milly, Paul C.D.; Stoffel, M.; Driessen, P.P.J.; Matczak, P.; Quevauviller, P.; Schellnhuber, H.-J.

2017-01-01

This paper interprets differences in flood hazard projections over Europe and identifies likely sources of discrepancy. Further, it discusses potential implications of these differences for flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. The discrepancy in flood hazard projections raises caution, especially among decision makers in charge of water resources management, flood risk reduction, and climate change adaptation at regional to local scales. Because it is naïve to expect availability of trustworthy quantitative projections of future flood hazard, in order to reduce flood risk one should focus attention on mapping of current and future risks and vulnerability hotspots and improve the situation there. Although an intercomparison of flood hazard projections is done in this paper and differences are identified and interpreted, it does not seems possible to recommend which large-scale studies may be considered most credible in particular areas of Europe.

PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

2013-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

Project Recon

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-14

Management tool • Current Risk Recon functionality • Issues Recon & Opportunity Recon – Launching Fall 2012 • FMEA and Lessons Learned – Planned Future...Lessons learned UNCLASSIFIED Integrated Risk Management FMEA Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Risk Recon Fields from FMEA software pre...populate Risk Info sheet. Risk Mitigation from Risk Recon trace back and populate FMEA , new RPN numbers. Issues Recon When a risk becomes an issue

Human Factors in Training

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barshi, Immanuel; Byrne, Vicky; Arsintescu, Lucia; Connell, Erin

2010-01-01

Future space missions will be significantly longer than current shuttle missions and new systems will be more complex than current systems. Increasing communication delays between crews and Earth-based support means that astronauts need to be prepared to handle the unexpected on their own. As crews become more autonomous, their potential span of control and required expertise must grow to match their autonomy. It is not possible to train for every eventuality ahead of time on the ground, or to maintain trained skills across long intervals of disuse. To adequately prepare NASA personnel for these challenges, new training approaches, methodologies, and tools are required. This research project aims at developing these training capabilities. By researching established training principles, examining future needs, and by using current practices in space flight training as test beds, both in Flight Controller and Crew Medical domains, this research project is mitigating program risks and generating templates and requirements to meet future training needs. Training efforts in Fiscal Year 09 (FY09) strongly focused on crew medical training, but also began exploring how Space Flight Resource Management training for Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) Flight Controllers could be integrated with systems training for optimal Mission Control Center (MCC) operations. The Training Task addresses Program risks that lie at the intersection of the following three risks identified by the Project: 1) Risk associated with poor task design; 2) Risk of error due to inadequate information; and 3) Risk associated with reduced safety and efficiency due to poor human factors design.

Human Factors in Training

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barshi, Immanuel; Byrne, Vicky; Arsintescu, Lucia; Connell, Erin; Sandor, Aniko

2009-01-01

Future space missions will be significantly longer than current shuttle missions and new systems will be more complex than current systems. Increasing communication delays between crews and Earth-based support means that astronauts need to be prepared to handle the unexpected on their own. As crews become more autonomous, their potential span of control and required expertise must grow to match their autonomy. It is not possible to train for every eventuality ahead of time on the ground, or to maintain trained skills across long intervals of disuse. To adequately prepare NASA personnel for these challenges, new training approaches, methodologies, and tools are required. This research project aims at developing these training capabilities. By researching established training principles, examining future needs, and by using current practices in space flight training as test beds, both in Flight Controller and Crew Medical domains, this research project is mitigating program risks and generating templates and requirements to meet future training needs. Training efforts in Fiscal Year 08 (FY08) strongly focused on crew medical training, but also began exploring how Space Flight Resource Management training for Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) Flight Controllers could be integrated with systems training for optimal Mission Control Center (MCC) operations. The Training Task addresses Program risks that lie at the intersection of the following three risks identified by the Project: (1) Risk associated with poor task design (2) Risk of error due to inadequate information (3) Risk associated with reduced safety and efficiency due to poor human factors design

NASA Space Radiation Risk Project: Overview and Recent Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blattnig, Steve R.; Chappell, Lori J.; George, Kerry A.; Hada, Megumi; Hu, Shaowen; Kidane, Yared H.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Kovyrshina, Tatiana; Norman, Ryan B.; Nounu, Hatem N.;

Precursors of Language Ability and Academic Performance: An Intergenerational, Longitudinal Study of At-Risk Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campisi, Lisa; Serbin, Lisa A.; Stack, Dale M.; Schwartzman, Alex E.; Ledingham, Jane E.

2009-01-01

The current investigation examined whether inter-generational transfer of risk could be revealed through mothers' and preschool-aged children's expressive language, and whether continuity of risk persisted in these children's academic abilities, 3 years later. Participating families were drawn from the Concordia Longitudinal Risk Project, a…

Risk Classification and Risk-based Safety and Mission Assurance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leitner, Jesse A.

2014-01-01

Recent activities to revamp and emphasize the need to streamline processes and activities for Class D missions across the agency have led to various interpretations of Class D, including the lumping of a variety of low-cost projects into Class D. Sometimes terms such as Class D minus are used. In this presentation, mission risk classifications will be traced to official requirements and definitions as a measure to ensure that projects and programs align with the guidance and requirements that are commensurate for their defined risk posture. As part of this, the full suite of risk classifications, formal and informal will be defined, followed by an introduction to the new GPR 8705.4 that is currently under review.GPR 8705.4 lays out guidance for the mission success activities performed at the Classes A-D for NPR 7120.5 projects as well as for projects not under NPR 7120.5. Furthermore, the trends in stepping from Class A into higher risk posture classifications will be discussed. The talk will conclude with a discussion about risk-based safety and mission assuranceat GSFC.

Risk Management in Construction Project: Taking Fairness into Account

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Górecki, Jarosław; Bizon-Górecka, Jadwiga

2017-10-01

Risk management requires a comprehensive review of possible hazards, their possible outcomes as well as some recommendations about minimizing the risk. The study emphasises that the project risk management refers to an analysis of the risk factors and a creation of the strategy minimising negative effects of the risk. It was pointed out that a construction project is this kind of projects that can be defined as a unique process of high complexity (design documentation, various stages of creating the building), which has clearly defined time frames and a given financial limit. It is executed as a team work, by qualified or highly qualified specialists of different matters, for example masonry, precast, etc. Additionally, it requires a use of modern equipment and an adequate preparation of the investment. Therefore, the risk management focuses on the problems allowing for troubleshooting. A basis of the risk management is to recognise the fundamentals, which are crucial for the construction project management, i.e. an object perspective, including technological, supporting and management processes as well as an entity perspective - project stakeholders. Construction projects require also an acquaintance with the specificity of the branch. The article refers to the risk management in construction project and, in particular, a phenomenon of participants’ fairness in such projects. The problem of fairness of the entities involved in a project should be understood as a fair play, according to the arrangements agreed in a contract and compatible with current formal procedures and social rules. It was indicated that fairness can be treated as an important factor in predicting the success of such projects. Interviews conducted among contractors in Kuyavian-Pomeranian region showed varied fairness requirements put to individual participants of construction projects. The article presents results of the research. It shows a desired attitude of the surveyed enterprises towards a problem of the fair behaviour. These behaviours, relating to individual stakeholders, have been underlined in different phases of the construction projects’ life cycle.

Investigating the multi-causal and complex nature of the accident causal influence of construction project features.

PubMed

Manu, Patrick A; Ankrah, Nii A; Proverbs, David G; Suresh, Subashini

2012-09-01

Construction project features (CPFs) are organisational, physical and operational attributes that characterise construction projects. Although previous studies have examined the accident causal influence of CPFs, the multi-causal attribute of this causal phenomenon still remain elusive and thus requires further investigation. Aiming to shed light on this facet of the accident causal phenomenon of CPFs, this study examines relevant literature and crystallises the attained insight of the multi-causal attribute by a graphical model which is subsequently operationalised by a derived mathematical risk expression that offers a systematic approach for evaluating the potential of CPFs to cause harm and consequently their health and safety (H&S) risk implications. The graphical model and the risk expression put forth by the study thus advance current understanding of the accident causal phenomenon of CPFs and they present an opportunity for project participants to manage the H&S risk associated with CPFs from the early stages of project procurement. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal impact of the project PATHS on adolescent risk behavior: what happened after five years?

PubMed

Shek, Daniel T L; Yu, Lu

2012-01-01

The present study investigated the longitudinal impact of the Project PATHS, a large-scale curriculum-based positive youth development program in Hong Kong, on the development of adolescents' risk behavior over a period of five years. Using a longitudinal randomized controlled design, eight waves of data were collected from 19 experimental schools in which students participated in the Project PATHS (N = 2,850 at Wave 8) and 24 control schools without joining the Project PATHS (N = 3,640 at Wave 8). At each wave, students responded to measures assessing their current risk behaviors, including delinquency, use of different types of drug, and their intentions of participating in risk behaviors in the future. Results demonstrated that adolescents receiving the program exhibited significantly slower increases in delinquent behaviors and substance use as compared to the control participants. During two years after the completion of the program, differences in youth risk behaviors in the two groups still existed. These results suggest that the Project PATHS has long-term effect in preventing adolescent problem behavior through promoting positive youth development.

Uncertainties in Projecting Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucinotta, F.; Schimmerling, W.; Peterson, L.; Wilson, J.; Saganti, P.; Dicello, J.

The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, CNS risks, and non - cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low -Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a maximum likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of the primary factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objectives, i.e., number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits

Estimates of Present and Future Flood Risk in the Conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing, O.; Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Johnson, K.; Fargione, J.; Morefield, P.

2017-12-01

Past attempts to estimate flood risk across the USA either have incomplete coverage, coarse resolution or use overly simplified models of the flooding process. In this paper, we use a new 30m resolution model of the entire conterminous US (CONUS) with realistic flood physics to produce estimates of flood hazard which match to within 90% accuracy the skill of local models built with detailed data. Socio-economic data of commensurate resolution are combined with these flood depths to estimate current and future flood risk. Future population and land-use projections from the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) are employed to indicate how flood risk might change through the 21st Century, while present-day estimates utilize the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) National Structure Inventory and a USEPA map of population distribution. Our data show that the total CONUS population currently exposed to serious flooding is 2.6 to 3.1 times higher than previous estimates; with nearly 41 million Americans living within the so-called 1 in 100-year (1% annual probability) floodplain, compared to only 13 million according to FEMA flood maps. Moreover, socio-economic change alone leads to significant future increases in flood exposure and risk, even before climate change impacts are accounted for. The share of the population living on the 1 in 100-year floodplain is projected to increase from 13.3% in the present-day to 15.6 - 15.8% in 2050 and 16.4 - 16.8% in 2100. The area of developed land within this floodplain, currently at 150,000 km2, is likely to increase by 37 - 72% in 2100 based on the scenarios selected. 5.5 trillion worth of assets currently lie on the 1% floodplain; we project that by 2100 this number will exceed 10 trillion. With this detailed spatial information on present-day flood risk, federal and state agencies can take appropriate action to mitigate losses. Use of USEPA population and land-use projections mean that particular attention can be paid to floodplains where development is projected. Steps to conserve such areas or ensure adequate defenses are in place could avoid the exposure of trillions of dollars of assets, not to mention the human suffering caused by loss of property and life.

Direct potable reuse microbial risk assessment methodology: Sensitivity analysis and application to State log credit allocations.

PubMed

Soller, Jeffrey A; Eftim, Sorina E; Nappier, Sharon P

2018-01-01

Understanding pathogen risks is a critically important consideration in the design of water treatment, particularly for potable reuse projects. As an extension to our published microbial risk assessment methodology to estimate infection risks associated with Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) treatment train unit process combinations, herein, we (1) provide an updated compilation of pathogen density data in raw wastewater and dose-response models; (2) conduct a series of sensitivity analyses to consider potential risk implications using updated data; (3) evaluate the risks associated with log credit allocations in the United States; and (4) identify reference pathogen reductions needed to consistently meet currently applied benchmark risk levels. Sensitivity analyses illustrated changes in cumulative annual risks estimates, the significance of which depends on the pathogen group driving the risk for a given treatment train. For example, updates to norovirus (NoV) raw wastewater values and use of a NoV dose-response approach, capturing the full range of uncertainty, increased risks associated with one of the treatment trains evaluated, but not the other. Additionally, compared to traditional log-credit allocation approaches, our results indicate that the risk methodology provides more nuanced information about how consistently public health benchmarks are achieved. Our results indicate that viruses need to be reduced by 14 logs or more to consistently achieve currently applied benchmark levels of protection associated with DPR. The refined methodology, updated model inputs, and log credit allocation comparisons will be useful to regulators considering DPR projects and design engineers as they consider which unit treatment processes should be employed for particular projects. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties - 2010

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Chappell, Lori J.

2011-01-01

Uncertainties in estimating health risks from galactic cosmic rays greatly limit space mission lengths and potential risk mitigation evaluations. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure-induced death and protects against uncertainties using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals in the projection model. Revisions to this model for lifetime cancer risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described here. We review models of space environments and transport code predictions of organ exposures, and characterize uncertainties in these descriptions. We summarize recent analysis of low linear energy transfer radio-epidemiology data, including revision to Japanese A-bomb survivor dosimetry, longer follow-up of exposed cohorts, and reassessments of dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factors. We compare these projections and uncertainties with earlier estimates. Current understanding of radiation quality effects and recent data on factors of relative biological effectiveness and particle track structure are reviewed. Recent radiobiology experiment results provide new information on solid cancer and leukemia risks from heavy ions. We also consider deviations from the paradigm of linearity at low doses of heavy ions motivated by non-targeted effects models. New findings and knowledge are used to revise the NASA risk projection model for space radiation cancer risks.

Application of Risk Assessment Tools in the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Paul S.

2002-01-01

Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is currently implementing the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Program developed by the Carnegie Mellon University and recommended by NASA as the Risk Management (RM) implementation approach. The four most frequently used risk assessment tools in the center are: (a) Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis (HA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), and Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA). There are some guidelines for selecting the type of risk assessment tools during the project formulation phase of a project, but there is not enough guidance as to how to apply these tools in the Continuous Risk Management process (CRM). But the ways the safety and risk assessment tools are used make a significant difference in the effectiveness in the risk management function. Decisions regarding, what events are to be included in the analysis, to what level of details should the analysis be continued, make significant difference in the effectiveness of risk management program. Tools of risk analysis also depends on the phase of a project e.g. at the initial phase of a project, when not much data are available on hardware, standard FMEA cannot be applied; instead a functional FMEA may be appropriate. This study attempted to provide some directives to alleviate the difficulty in applying FTA, PRA, and FMEA in the CRM process. Hazard Analysis was not included in the scope of the study due to the short duration of the summer research project.

Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainties for Mars Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; Schimmerling, W.; Wilson, J. W.; Peterson, L. E.; Badhwar, G. D.; Saganti, P. B.; Dicello, J. F.

2001-01-01

Projecting cancer risks from exposure to space radiation is highly uncertain because of the absence of data for humans and because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating late effects from the high-energy and charge (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays (GCR). Cancer risk projections involve many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to the lack of data and knowledge. We discuss an uncertainty assessment within the linear-additivity model using the approach of Monte Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions that represent the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify the overall uncertainty in risk projections. Calculations are performed using the space radiation environment and transport codes for several Mars mission scenarios. This approach leads to estimates of the uncertainties in cancer risk projections of 400-600% for a Mars mission. The uncertainties in the quality factors are dominant. Using safety standards developed for low-Earth orbit, long-term space missions (>90 days) outside the Earth's magnetic field are currently unacceptable if the confidence levels in risk projections are considered. Because GCR exposures involve multiple particle or delta-ray tracks per cellular array, our results suggest that the shape of the dose response at low dose rates may be an additional uncertainty for estimating space radiation risks.

Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; Schimmerling, W.; Wilson, J. W.; Peterson, L. E.; Saganti, P. B.; Dicello, J. F.

2004-01-01

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits.

Building a Better Model: A Personalized Breast Cancer Risk Model Incorporating Breast Density to Stratify Risk and Improve Application of Resources

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-01

a GE unit and 100 images from a Hologic unit. These were reviewed during Dr. Harvey’s visit to Toronto October 2012. The ...patient underwent the standard of practice 4-view mammogram. Following this, a different technologist obtained a second craniocaudal image of the left...project and one related to a current event. Representatives from the project were present to provide information at the Charlottesville Four

NASA Earned Value Management (EVM) Update

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerby, Jerald

2013-01-01

Earned Value Management (EVM) is an integrated management control system for assessing, understanding and qualifying what a project is achieving with the resoures. EVM integrates technical cost and schedules with risk management. It allows objective assessment and quantification of current project performance, and helps predict future performance-based trents.

The safer clinical systems project in renal care.

PubMed

Weale, Andy R

2013-09-01

Current systems in place in healthcare are designed to detect harm after it has happened (e.g critical incident reports) and make recommendations based on an assessment of that event. Safer Clinical Systems, a Health Foundation funded project, is designed to proactively search for risk within systems, rather than being reactive to harm. The aim of the Safer Clinical Systems project in Renal Care was to reduce the risks associated with shared care for patients who are undergoing surgery but are looked after peri-operatively by nephrology teams on nephrology wards. This report details our findings of the diagnostic phase of Safer Clinical Systems: the proactive search for risk. We have evaluated the current system of care using a set of risk evaluation and process mapping tools (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Hierarchical Task Analysis HTA). We have engaged staff with the process mapping and risk assessment tools. We now understand our system and understand where the highest risk tasks are undertaken during a renal in-patient stay during which a patient has an operation. These key tasks occur across the perioperaive period and are not confined to one aspect of care. A measurement strategy and intervention plan have been designed around these tasks. Safer Clinical Systems has identified high risk, low reliability tasks in our system. We look forward to fully reporting these data in 2014. © 2013 European Dialysis and Transplant Nurses Association/European Renal Care Association.

Uncertainties in Estimates of the Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; Schimmerling, W.; Wilson, J. W.; Peterson, L. E.; Saganti, P.; Dicelli, J. F.

2002-01-01

The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, and non-cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a Maximum Likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objective's, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits.

Medical Updates Number 5 to the International Space Station Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) Model Using the Integrated Medical Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Doug; Bauman, David; Johnson-Throop, Kathy

2011-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project has been developing a probabilistic risk assessment tool, the IMM, to help evaluate in-flight crew health needs and impacts to the mission due to medical events. This package is a follow-up to a data package provided in June 2009. The IMM currently represents 83 medical conditions and associated ISS resources required to mitigate medical events. IMM end state forecasts relevant to the ISS PRA model include evacuation (EVAC) and loss of crew life (LOCL). The current version of the IMM provides the basis for the operational version of IMM expected in the January 2011 timeframe. The objectives of this data package are: 1. To provide a preliminary understanding of medical risk data used to update the ISS PRA Model. The IMM has had limited validation and an initial characterization of maturity has been completed using NASA STD 7009 Standard for Models and Simulation. The IMM has been internally validated by IMM personnel but has not been validated by an independent body external to the IMM Project. 2. To support a continued dialogue between the ISS PRA and IMM teams. To ensure accurate data interpretation, and that IMM output format and content meets the needs of the ISS Risk Management Office and ISS PRA Model, periodic discussions are anticipated between the risk teams. 3. To help assess the differences between the current ISS PRA and IMM medical risk forecasts of EVAC and LOCL. Follow-on activities are anticipated based on the differences between the current ISS PRA medical risk data and the latest medical risk data produced by IMM.

An Overview of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sabelhaus, Phillip A.

2004-01-01

The JWST project at the GSFC is responsible for the development, launch, operations and science data processing for the James Webb Space Telescope. The JWST project is currently in phase B with its launch scheduled for August 2011. The project is a partnership between NASA, ESA and CSA. The U.S. JWST team is now fully in place with the recent selection of Northrop Grumman Space Technology (NGST) as the prime contractor for the telescope and the Space Telescope Science Institute (STScI) as the mission operations and science data processing lead. This paper will provide an overview of the current JWST architecture and mission status including technology developments and risks.

An Overview of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sabelhaus, Phillip A.; Campbell, Doug; Clampin, Mark; Decker, John; Greenhouse, Matt; Johns, Alan; Menzel, Mike; Smith, Robert; Sullivan, Pam

2005-01-01

The JWST project at the GSFC is responsible for the development, launch, operations and science data processing for the James Webb Space Telescope. The JWST project is currently in phase B with its launch scheduled for August 2011. The project is a partnership between NASA, ESA and CSA. The U.S. JWST team is now fully in place with the selection of Northrop Grumman Space Technology (NGST) as the prime contractor for the telescope and the Space Telescope Science Institute (STScI) as the mission operations and science data processing lead. This paper will provide an overview of the current JWST architecture and mission status including technology developments and risks.

Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; Schimmerling, W.; Wilson, J. W.; Peterson, L. E.; Saganti, P. B.; Dicello, J. F.

2004-01-01

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Medical Data Architecture (MDA) Project Status

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krihak, M.; Middour, C.; Gurram, M.; Wolfe, S.; Marker, N.; Winther, S.; Ronzano, K.; Bolles, D.; Toscano, W.; Shaw, T.

2018-01-01

The Medical Data Architecture (MDA) project supports the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) risk to minimize or reduce the risk of adverse health outcomes and decrements in performance due to in-flight medical capabilities on human exploration missions. To mitigate this risk, the ExMC MDA project addresses the technical limitations identified in ExMC Gap Med 07: We do not have the capability to comprehensively process medically-relevant information to support medical operations during exploration missions. This gap identifies that the current in-flight medical data management includes a combination of data collection and distribution methods that are minimally integrated with on-board medical devices and systems. Furthermore, there are a variety of data sources and methods of data collection. For an exploration mission, the seamless management of such data will enable a more medically autonomous crew than the current paradigm. The medical system requirements are being developed in parallel with the exploration mission architecture and vehicle design. ExMC has recognized that in order to make informed decisions about a medical data architecture framework, current methods for medical data management must not only be understood, but an architecture must also be identified that provides the crew with actionable insight to medical conditions. This medical data architecture will provide the necessary functionality to address the challenges of executing a self-contained medical system that approaches crew health care delivery without assistance from ground support. Hence, the products supported by current prototype development will directly inform exploration medical system requirements.

Medical Data Architecture Project Status

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krihak, M.; Middour, C.; Gurram, M.; Wolfe, S.; Marker, N.; Winther, S.; Ronzano, K.; Bolles, D.; Toscano, W.; Shaw, T.

2018-01-01

The Medical Data Architecture (MDA) project supports the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) risk to minimize or reduce the risk of adverse health outcomes and decrements in performance due to in-flight medical capabilities on human exploration missions. To mitigate this risk, the ExMC MDA project addresses the technical limitations identified in ExMC Gap Med 07: We do not have the capability to comprehensively process medically-relevant information to support medical operations during exploration missions. This gap identifies that the current in-flight medical data management includes a combination of data collection and distribution methods that are minimally integrated with on-board medical devices and systems. Furthermore, there are a variety of data sources and methods of data collection. For an exploration mission, the seamless management of such data will enable a more medically autonomous crew than the current paradigm. The medical system requirements are being developed in parallel with the exploration mission architecture and vehicle design. ExMC has recognized that in order to make informed decisions about a medical data architecture framework, current methods for medical data management must not only be understood, but an architecture must also be identified that provides the crew with actionable insight to medical conditions. This medical data architecture will provide the necessary functionality to address the challenges of executing a self-contained medical system that approaches crew health care delivery without assistance from ground support. Hence, the products supported by current prototype development will directly inform exploration medical system requirements.

Carbon Nanotubes Exposure Risk Assessment: From Toxicology to Epidemiologic Studies (Overview of the Current Problem)

PubMed Central

Fatkhutdinova, L. M.; Khaliullin, T. O.; Shvedova, A. A.

2015-01-01

Nanoscale size and fiber like structure of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) may determine high reactivity and penetration, as well as the pathogenicity of asbestos and other mineral fibers. Despite many in vitro and in vivo studies, the absence of full-scale data on CNT effects on human health clearly point out the necessity for epidemiological studies. Currently, several projects are initiated worldwide on studying health risks associated with the inhalation of industrial CNTs, including NIOSH-promoted research (United States), the European CANTES study, and the Russian CNT-ERA project. Studies comprising several successive steps, such as CNT exposure assessment in occupational settings, toxicological evaluation, and epidemiological observations, are critical for determining material safety and use criteria. PMID:26457172

Risk transfer modeling among hierarchically associated stakeholders in development of space systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henkle, Thomas Grove, III

Research develops an empirically derived cardinal model that prescribes handling and transfer of risks between organizations with hierarchical relationships. Descriptions of mission risk events, risk attitudes, and conditions for risk transfer are determined for client and underwriting entities associated with acquisition, production, and deployment of space systems. The hypothesis anticipates that large client organizations should be able to assume larger dollar-value risks of a program in comparison to smaller organizations even though many current risk transfer arrangements via space insurance violate this hypothesis. A literature survey covers conventional and current risk assessment methods, current techniques used in the satellite industry for complex system development, cardinal risk modeling, and relevant aspects of utility theory. Data gathered from open literature on demonstrated launch vehicle and satellite in-orbit reliability, annual space insurance premiums and losses, and ground fatalities and range damage associated with satellite launch activities are presented. Empirically derived models are developed for risk attitudes of space system clients and third-party underwriters associated with satellite system development and deployment. Two application topics for risk transfer are examined: the client-underwriter relationship on assumption or transfer of risks associated with first-year mission success, and statutory risk transfer agreements between space insurance underwriters and the US government to promote growth in both commercial client and underwriting industries. Results indicate that client entities with wealth of at least an order of magnitude above satellite project costs should retain risks to first-year mission success despite present trends. Furthermore, large client entities such as the US government should never pursue risk transfer via insurance under previously demonstrated probabilities of mission success; potential savings may reasonably exceed multiple tens of $millions per space project. Additional results indicate that current US government statutory arrangements on risk sharing with underwriting entities appears reasonable with respect to stated objectives. This research combines aspects of multiple disciplines to include risk management, decision theory, utility theory, and systems architecting. It also demonstrates development of a more general theory on prescribing risk transfer criteria between distinct, but hierarchically associated entities involved in complex system development with applicability to a variety of technical domains.

EC FP6 Siberia-focused Enviro-RISKS Project and its Outcomes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baklanov, A. A.; Gordov, E. P.

2009-04-01

The FP6 Project "Man-induced Environmental Risks: Monitoring, Management and Remediation of Man-made Changes in Siberia" (Enviro-RISKS) strategic objective is to facilitate elaboration of solid scientific background and understanding of man-made associated environmental risks, their influence on all aspects of regional environment and optimal ways for it remediation by means of coordinated initiatives of a range of relevant RTD projects as well as to achieve their improved integration thus giving the projects additional synergy in current activities and potential for practical applications. List of Partners includes 3 leading European research organizations, 6 leading Russian research organizations (5 - located in Siberia) and 1 organization from Kazakhstan. Additionally several Russian and European research organizations joined to the Project as Associated Partners. Scientific background and foundation for the project performance is formed by a number of different levels RTD projects carried out by Partners and devoted to near all aspects of the theme. The set comprise coordinated/performed by partners EC funded thematic international projects, Russian national projects and other projects performed by NIS partners. Project outcomes include, in particular, development and support of the bilingual Enviro-RISKS web portal (http://risks.scert.ru/) as the major tool for disseminations of environmental information and project results; achieved level of development of Siberia Integrated Regional Study (SIRS, http://sirs.scert.ru/), which is the Siberia-focused NEESPI Environmental Mega-Project ongoing under the auspices of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The main Project outcome are Memorandum on the state of the art of environmental RTD activity in Siberia and Recommendations on future environmental RTD activity in Siberia elaborated by four Working Experts Groups working in most important for Siberia Thematic Focuses. Three Thematic Focuses/Groups consider major risks inherent to Siberia environment, while the forth Focus has a generic nature. These groups analyzed numerous RTD projects devoted Siberia environment and prepared Reports summarizing their findings. Focus groups Reports are published as a DMI Scientific Report: Atmospheric Pollution and Risks (www.dmi.dk/dmi/sr08-05-1.pdf), Climate/Global Change and Risks (www.dmi.dk/dmi/sr08-05-2.pdf), and Terrestrial Ecosystems and Hydrology and Risks (www.dmi.dk/dmi/sr08-05-3.pdf). Information Systems, Integration and Synthesis (www.dmi.dk/dmi/sr08-05-4.pdf). The results obtained form a solid basis for organization of a coordinated set of the new projects on Siberia environment.

Appendix 2: Risk-based framework and risk case studies. Risk Assessment for two bird species in northern Wisconsin.

Treesearch

Megan M. Friggens; Stephen N. Matthews

2012-01-01

Species distribution models for 147 bird species have been derived using climate, elevation, and distribution of current tree species as potential predictors (Matthews et al. 2011). In this case study, a risk matrix was developed for two bird species (fig. A2-5), with projected change in bird habitat (the x axis) based on models of changing suitable habitat resulting...

Patient safety in external beam radiotherapy, results of the ACCIRAD project: Current status of proactive risk assessment, reactive analysis of events, and reporting and learning systems in Europe.

PubMed

Malicki, Julian; Bly, Ritva; Bulot, Mireille; Godet, Jean-Luc; Jahnen, Andreas; Krengli, Marco; Maingon, Philippe; Prieto Martin, Carlos; Przybylska, Kamila; Skrobała, Agnieszka; Valero, Marc; Jarvinen, Hannu

2017-04-01

To describe the current status of implementation of European directives for risk management in radiotherapy and to assess variability in risk management in the following areas: 1) in-country regulatory framework; 2) proactive risk assessment; (3) reactive analysis of events; and (4) reporting and learning systems. The original data were collected as part of the ACCIRAD project through two online surveys. Risk assessment criteria are closely associated with quality assurance programs. Only 9/32 responding countries (28%) with national regulations reported clear "requirements" for proactive risk assessment and/or reactive risk analysis, with wide variability in assessment methods. Reporting of adverse error events is mandatory in most (70%) but not all surveyed countries. Most European countries have taken steps to implement European directives designed to reduce the probability and magnitude of accidents in radiotherapy. Variability between countries is substantial in terms of legal frameworks, tools used to conduct proactive risk assessment and reactive analysis of events, and in the reporting and learning systems utilized. These findings underscore the need for greater harmonisation in common terminology, classification and reporting practices across Europe to improve patient safety and to enable more reliable inter-country comparisons. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recommendations on breast cancer screening and prevention in the context of implementing risk stratification: impending changes to current policies

PubMed Central

Gagnon, J.; Lévesque, E.; Borduas, F.; Chiquette, J.; Diorio, C.; Duchesne, N.; Dumais, M.; Eloy, L.; Foulkes, W.; Gervais, N.; Lalonde, L.; L’Espérance, B.; Meterissian, S.; Provencher, L.; Richard, J.; Savard, C.; Trop, I.; Wong, N.; Knoppers, B.M.; Simard, J.

2016-01-01

In recent years, risk stratification has sparked interest as an innovative approach to disease screening and prevention. The approach effectively personalizes individual risk, opening the way to screening and prevention interventions that are adapted to subpopulations. The international perspective project, which is developing risk stratification for breast cancer, aims to support the integration of its screening approach into clinical practice through comprehensive tool-building. Policies and guidelines for risk stratification—unlike those for population screening programs, which are currently well regulated—are still under development. Indeed, the development of guidelines for risk stratification reflects the translational aspects of perspective. Here, we describe the risk stratification process that was devised in the context of perspective, and we then explain the consensus-based method used to develop recommendations for breast cancer screening and prevention in a risk-stratification approach. Lastly, we discuss how the recommendations might affect current screening policies. PMID:28050152

Kidney-Failure Risk Projection for the Living Kidney-Donor Candidate.

PubMed

Grams, Morgan E; Sang, Yingying; Levey, Andrew S; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Ballew, Shoshana; Chang, Alex R; Chow, Eric K H; Kasiske, Bertram L; Kovesdy, Csaba P; Nadkarni, Girish N; Shalev, Varda; Segev, Dorry L; Coresh, Josef; Lentine, Krista L; Garg, Amit X

2016-02-04

Evaluation of candidates to serve as living kidney donors relies on screening for individual risk factors for end-stage renal disease (ESRD). To support an empirical approach to donor selection, we developed a tool that simultaneously incorporates multiple health characteristics to estimate a person's probable long-term risk of ESRD if that person does not donate a kidney. We used risk associations from a meta-analysis of seven general population cohorts, calibrated to the population-level incidence of ESRD and mortality in the United States, to project the estimated long-term incidence of ESRD among persons who do not donate a kidney, according to 10 demographic and health characteristics. We then compared 15-year projections with the observed risk among 52,998 living kidney donors in the United States. A total of 4,933,314 participants from seven cohorts were followed for a median of 4 to 16 years. For a 40-year-old person with health characteristics that were similar to those of age-matched kidney donors, the 15-year projections of the risk of ESRD in the absence of donation varied according to race and sex; the risk was 0.24% among black men, 0.15% among black women, 0.06% among white men, and 0.04% among white women. Risk projections were higher in the presence of a lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, higher albuminuria, hypertension, current or former smoking, diabetes, and obesity. In the model-based lifetime projections, the risk of ESRD was highest among persons in the youngest age group, particularly among young blacks. The 15-year observed risks after donation among kidney donors in the United States were 3.5 to 5.3 times as high as the projected risks in the absence of donation. Multiple demographic and health characteristics may be used together to estimate the projected long-term risk of ESRD among living kidney-donor candidates and to inform acceptance criteria for kidney donors. (Funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and others.).

Parenting: Responsibilities, Risks and Respect

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vincent, Carol

2012-01-01

Professor Carol Vincent gets the 2012 Professorial Lecture series underway with a thought provoking talk drawing on research projects conducted over the last twelve years. The lecture will explore factors identified in current policy, media, and other social and political forums as the risks and responsibilities of contemporary parenting, with a…

NASA's Current and Next Generation Coastal Remote Sensing Missions and Coral Reef Projects.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guild, Liane S.

2015-01-01

The LLILAS Faculty Research Initiative presents a two-day symposium, Caribbean Coral Reefs at Risk. This international symposium examines the current state and future of coral reef conservation efforts throughout the Caribbean from the perspective of government agencies, nongovernment organizations, and academia.

A Theater-as-Education Project Discourages Tobacco and Alcohol Use

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bell-Ellison, Bethany A.; Forthofer, Melinda S.; McDermott, Robert J.; Zapata, Lauren B.; Nearns, Jodi L.; Curran, K. T.; Calkins, Susan A.; Bryant, Carol A.; McCormack Brown, Kelli R.

2009-01-01

Theater has been used as an educational tool since the Great Depression era, and it is currently considered an effective tool for health promotion and reducing risk-taking behaviors among youth. Theater projects are well suited for communicating prevention messages to youth audiences because they can depict real-life settings and characters who…

Transdisciplinary Teaming. Module 5. Bilingual/ESOL Special Education Collaboration and Reform Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fradd, Sandra H.

This instructional module is part of a project to reform current school curricula, improve instructional services for handicapped and at-risk limited-English-proficient (LEP) and language minority students, and provide innovative leadership in higher education related to programs for LEP persons. The materials contained in the module are designed…

The integration of the risk in the governance of urban projects: a key issue for a resilient city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moulin, E.; Deroubaix, J.-F.

2012-04-01

Despite a severe regulation concerning the building in flooding areas, 80% of these areas are already built in the Greater Paris (Paris, Val-de-Marne, Hauts-de-Seine and Seine-Saint-Denis). The land use in flooding area is presented as one of the main solutions to solve the ongoing real estate pressure. For instance some of the industrial wastelands located along the river are currently in redevelopment and residential buildings are planned. So landuse in the flooding areas is currently a key issue in the development of the Greater Paris area. Tools and measures, structural or non-structural such as warning systems, barriers, etc do exist and could be a smart way to improve the resilience of the new urbanised areas. The technical solutions are available and efficient, but we notice that these tools are not much implemented. There is a lack of flood risk concern among the stakeholders and the inhabitants1. How landuse stakeholders could integrate the flood risk in the decision making process throughout the implementation of the urban project? Which type of governance favours an efficient development of good flood risk policy including prevention, protection and the management of the crisis? What is the "good" governance of the urban project e.g. enabling to take into account or not to forget the flood risk and to empower the (future) inhabitants? This inhabitants' empowerment includes the improvement of awareness (i.e. inhabitants being aware that they live in a flooded area) and the improvement of concern (i.e. inhabitants adopting the "right" behaviour when the risk occurs). In order to investigate how flood risk is or could be integrated in the project governance, we interviewed stakeholders (elected representatives, architects, property developers, etc.) and observed the integration or the vanishing of the risk throughout the project. In order to develop this topic we rely on a case study. The "Ardoines" is a project aiming at redeveloping an industrial site (South-East Paris), into a project including residential and office buildings and other amenities. In order to elaborate the master plan, the urban planning authority brought together some flood risk experts. With the remarks of the experts, the architect in charge of the landuse elaborated the master plan taking into account the flood risk; reducing vulnerability of the area and improving the resilience in case of floods, towards a threshold plan. How the experts' recommendations appear in the execution phase? We will show how the project completes or departs from the regulatory policy concerning the drawing up and the implementation of the prevention/protection against flood risk in France. How the vulnerability reduction or the resilience improvement reproduce the regulatory fragmentation, i.e.; on one hand the risk prevention plan and on the other hand the crisis management? We will demonstrate how a resilient approach should mix the several regulatory segments and put the inhabitant in the middle of the urban project thanks to suitable urban forms.

Preparing Students for Leadership in Tomorrow's Work.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brand, Betsy

If educators, policymakers, and school administrators Employment Policy's current project on at-risk youth aged 9 to 15 school, graduate, and enjoy learning. Unfortunately, the current policy on education is targeted to young people who go on to college. Another fundamental problem with schools is that the school curriculum has become disconnected…

PRA and Conceptual Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, Diana; Fuqua, Bryan; Wilson, Paul

2013-01-01

Once a project obtains approval, decision makers have to consider a variety of alternative paths for completing the project and meeting the project objectives. How decisions are made involves a variety of elements including: cost, experience, current technology, ideologies, politics, future needs and desires, capabilities, manpower, timing, available information, and for many ventures management needs to assess the elements of risk versus reward. The use of high level Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Models during conceptual design phases provides management with additional information during the decision making process regarding the risk potential for proposed operations and design prototypes. The methodology can be used as a tool to: 1) allow trade studies to compare alternatives based on risk, 2) determine which elements (equipment, process or operational parameters) drives the risk, and 3) provide information to mitigate or eliminate risks early in the conceptual design to lower costs. Creating system models using conceptual design proposals and generic key systems based on what is known today can provide an understanding of the magnitudes of proposed systems and operational risks and facilitates trade study comparisons early in the decision making process. Identifying the "best" way to achieve the desired results is difficult, and generally occurs based on limited information. PRA provides a tool for decision makers to explore how some decisions will affect risk before the project is committed to that path, which can ultimately save time and money.

Medical Data Architecture Project Status

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krihak, M.; Middour, C.; Lindsey, A.; Marker, N.; Wolfe, S.; Winther, S.; Ronzano, K.; Bolles, D.; Toscano, W.; Shaw, T.

2017-01-01

The Medical Data Architecture (MDA) project supports the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) risk to minimize or reduce the risk of adverse health outcomes and decrements in performance due to in-flight medical capabilities on human exploration missions. To mitigate this risk, the ExMC MDA project addresses the technical limitations identified in ExMC Gap Med 07: We do not have the capability to comprehensively process medically-relevant information to support medical operations during exploration missions. This gap identifies that the current International Space Station (ISS) medical data management includes a combination of data collection and distribution methods that are minimally integrated with on-board medical devices and systems. Furthermore, there are variety of data sources and methods of data collection. For an exploration mission, the seamless management of such data will enable an increasingly autonomous crew than the current ISS paradigm. The MDA will develop capabilities that support automated data collection, and the necessary functionality and challenges in executing a self-contained medical system that approaches crew health care delivery without assistance from ground support. To attain this goal, the first year of the MDA project focused on reducing technical risk, developing documentation and instituting iterative development processes that established the basis for the first version of MDA software (or Test Bed 1). Test Bed 1 is based on a nominal operations scenario authored by the ExMC Element Scientist. This narrative was decomposed into a Concept of Operations that formed the basis for Test Bed 1 requirements. These requirements were successfully vetted through the MDA Test Bed 1 System Requirements Review, which permitted the MDA project to begin software code development and component integration. This paper highlights the MDA objectives, development processes, and accomplishments, and identifies the fiscal year 2017 milestones and deliverables in the upcoming year.

Applying robotics to HAZMAT

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Welch, Richard V.; Edmonds, Gary O.

1994-01-01

The use of robotics in situations involving hazardous materials can significantly reduce the risk of human injuries. The Emergency Response Robotics Project, which began in October 1990 at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, is developing a teleoperated mobile robot allowing HAZMAT (hazardous materials) teams to remotely respond to incidents involving hazardous materials. The current robot, called HAZBOT III, can assist in locating characterizing, identifying, and mitigating hazardous material incidents without risking entry team personnel. The active involvement of the JPL Fire Department HAZMAT team has been vital in developing a robotic system which enables them to perform remote reconnaissance of a HAZMAT incident site. This paper provides a brief review of the history of the project, discusses the current system in detail, and presents other areas in which robotics can be applied removing people from hazardous environments/operations.

Probabilistic Projections of Future Sea-Level Change and Their Implications for Flood Risk Management: Insights from the American Climate Prospectus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, R. E., III; Delgado, M.; Horton, R. M.; Houser, T.; Little, C. M.; Muir-Wood, R.; Oppenheimer, M.; Rasmussen, D. M., Jr.; Strauss, B.; Tebaldi, C.

2014-12-01

Global mean sea level (GMSL) rise projections are insufficient for adaptation planning; local decisions require local projections that characterize risk over a range of timeframes and tolerances. We present a global set of local sea level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We present complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling [1]. We illustrate the application of this framework by estimating the joint distribution of future sea-level change and coastal flooding, and associated economic costs [1,2]. In much of the world in the current century, differences in median LSL projections are due primarily to varying levels of non-climatic uplift or subsidence. In the 22nd century and in the high-end tails, larger ice sheet contributions, particularly from the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS), contribute significantly to site-to-site differences. Uncertainty in GMSL and most LSL projections is dominated by the uncertain AIS component. Sea-level rise dramatically reshapes flood risk. For example, at the New York City (Battery) tide gauge, our projections indicate a likely (67% probability) 21st century LSL rise under RCP 8.5 of 65--129 cm (1-in-20 chance of exceeding 154 cm). Convolving the distribution of projected sea-level rise with the extreme value distribution of flood return periods indicates that this rise will cause the current 1.80 m `1-in-100 year' flood event to occur an expected nine times over the 21st century -- equivalent to the expected number of `1-in-11 year' floods in the absence of sea-level change. Projected sea-level rise for 2100 under RCP 8.5 would likely place 80-160 billion of current property in New York below the high tide line, with a 1-in-20 chance of losses >190 billion. Even without accounting for potential changes in storms themselves, it would likely increase average annual storm damage by 2.6-5.2 billion (1-in-20 chance of >7 billion). Projected increases in tropical cyclone intensity would further increase damages [2]. References: [1] R. E. Kopp et al. (2014), Earth's Future, doi:10.1002/2014EF000239. [2] T. Houser et al. (2014), American Climate Prospectus, www.climateprospectus.org.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Metzler, D.; Gibb, J.P.; Glover, W.A.

Compliance with the mandate of the Uranium Mill Tailings Radiation Control Act (UMTRCA) at Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project sites requires implementation of a groundwater remedial action plan that meets the requirements of Subpart B of the US Environmental Protection Agency`s proposed groundwater protection standards (40 CFR 192). The UMTRA Groundwater Project will ensure that unacceptable current risk or potential risk to the public health, safety and the environment resulting from the groundwater contamination attributable to the UMTRA sites, is mitigated in a timely and cost-efficient manner. For each UMTRA processing site and vicinity property where contamination exists,more » a groundwater remedial action plan must be developed that identifies hazardous constituents and establishes acceptable concentration limits for the hazardous constituents as either (a) alternate concentration limits (ACL), (b) maximum concentration limits (MCLs), (c) supplemental standards, or (d) background groundwater quality levels. Project optimization is a strategy that will aggressively work within the current regulatory framework using all available options to meet regulatory requirements. This strategy is outlined within.« less

Catastrophe risk data scoping for disaster risk finance in Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millinship, Ian; Revilla-Romero, Beatriz

2017-04-01

Developing countries across Latin America, Africa, and Asia are some of the most exposed to natural catastrophes in the world. Over the last 20 years, Asia has borne almost half the estimated global economic cost of natural disasters - around 53billion annually. Losses from natural disasters can damage growth and hamper economic development and unlike in developed countries where risk is reallocated through re/insurance, typically these countries rely on budget reallocations and donor assistance in order to attempt to meet financing needs. There is currently an active international dialogue on the need to increase access to disaster risk financing solutions in Asia. The World Bank-GFDRR Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program with financial support from the Rockefeller Foundation, is currently working to develop regional options for disaster risk financing for developing countries in Asia. The first stage of this process has been to evaluate available catastrophe data suitable to support the design and implementation of disaster risk financing mechanisms in selected Asian countries. This project was carried out by a consortium of JBA Risk Management, JBA Consulting, ImageCat and Cat Risk Intelligence. The project focuses on investigating potential data sources for fourteen selected countries in Asia, for flood, tropical cyclone, earthquake and drought perils. The project was carried out under four stages. The first phase focused to identify and catalogue live/dynamic hazard data sources such as hazard gauging networks, or earth observations datasets which could be used to inform a parametric trigger. Live data sources were identified that provide credibility, transparency, independence, frequent reporting, consistency and stability. Data were catalogued at regional level, and prioritised at local level for five countries: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Viet Nam. The second phase was to identify, catalogue and evaluate catastrophe risk models that could quantify risk and provide a view of risk to support design and pricing of parametric disaster risk financing mechanisms. The third stage was to evaluate the usability of data sources and catastrophe models, and to develop index prototypes to outline how data and catastrophe models could be combined using local, regional and global data sources. Finally, the project identified priorities for investment to support the collection, analysis and evaluation of natural catastrophes in order to support disaster risk financing.

76 FR 50276 - STP Nuclear Operating Company, South Texas Project, Units 1 and 2; Notice of Withdrawal of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-12

... revised the application of Risk- Managed Technical Specifications to Technical Specification 3.7.7, ``Control Room Makeup and Cleanup Filtration System.'' The purpose of the change was to correct a misapplication of the Configuration Risk Management Program that is currently allowed by the Technical...

Imaging X-Ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE) Risk Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, Cheryl; Deininger, William D.; Baggett, Randy; Primo, Attina; Bowen, Mike; Cowart, Chris; Del Monte, Ettore; Ingram, Lindsey; Kalinowski, William; Kelley, Anthony;

Contingency planning for Phytophthora ramorum outbreaks: progress report work package 7, EU RAPRA project

Treesearch

M.H.C.G. Steeghs

2008-01-01

As part of the EU project ?Risk analysis for Phytophthora ramorum, a recently recognised pathogen threat to Europe and the cause of Sudden Oak Death in the USA? (acronym RAPRA) outbreak scenarios are defined and existing strategies for eradication and containment of Phytophthora ramorum evaluated. Based on the current knowledge...

New York's Children in 1989: Society at Risk. A Report of New York State Project 2000.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schoggen, Phil; Schoggen, Maxine

This report reviews the current conditions of New York's children. Topics include: (1) demographic conditions, trends and projections; (2) economic conditions; (3) child care; (4) education; (5) health and nutrition; (6) school-age pregnancy and child bearing; (7) alcohol and drug abuse; and (8) racial and ethnic group inequality. The report…

Benefits of Using a Mars Forward Strategy for Lunar Surface Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mulqueen, Jack; Griffin, Brand; Smitherman, David; Maples, Dauphne

2009-01-01

This paper identifies potential risk reduction, cost savings and programmatic procurement benefits of a Mars Forward Lunar Surface System architecture that provides commonality or evolutionary development paths for lunar surface system elements applicable to Mars surface systems. The objective of this paper is to identify the potential benefits for incorporating a Mars Forward development strategy into the planned Project Constellation Lunar Surface System Architecture. The benefits include cost savings, technology readiness, and design validation of systems that would be applicable to lunar and Mars surface systems. The paper presents a survey of previous lunar and Mars surface systems design concepts and provides an assessment of previous conclusions concerning those systems in light of the current Project Constellation Exploration Architectures. The operational requirements for current Project Constellation lunar and Mars surface system elements are compared and evaluated to identify the potential risk reduction strategies that build on lunar surface systems to reduce the technical and programmatic risks for Mars exploration. Risk reduction for rapidly evolving technologies is achieved through systematic evolution of technologies and components based on Moore's Law superimposed on the typical NASA systems engineering project development "V-cycle" described in NASA NPR 7120.5. Risk reduction for established or slowly evolving technologies is achieved through a process called the Mars-Ready Platform strategy in which incremental improvements lead from the initial lunar surface system components to Mars-Ready technologies. The potential programmatic benefits of the Mars Forward strategy are provided in terms of the transition from the lunar exploration campaign to the Mars exploration campaign. By utilizing a sequential combined procurement strategy for lunar and Mars exploration surface systems, the overall budget wedges for exploration systems are reduced and the costly technological development gap between the lunar and Mars programs can be eliminated. This provides a sustained level of technological competitiveness as well as maintaining a stable engineering and manufacturing capability throughout the entire duration of Project Constellation.

Large-scale retrospective evaluation of regulated liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry bioanalysis projects using different total error approaches.

PubMed

Tan, Aimin; Saffaj, Taoufiq; Musuku, Adrien; Awaiye, Kayode; Ihssane, Bouchaib; Jhilal, Fayçal; Sosse, Saad Alaoui; Trabelsi, Fethi

2015-03-01

The current approach in regulated LC-MS bioanalysis, which evaluates the precision and trueness of an assay separately, has long been criticized for inadequate balancing of lab-customer risks. Accordingly, different total error approaches have been proposed. The aims of this research were to evaluate the aforementioned risks in reality and the difference among four common total error approaches (β-expectation, β-content, uncertainty, and risk profile) through retrospective analysis of regulated LC-MS projects. Twenty-eight projects (14 validations and 14 productions) were randomly selected from two GLP bioanalytical laboratories, which represent a wide variety of assays. The results show that the risk of accepting unacceptable batches did exist with the current approach (9% and 4% of the evaluated QC levels failed for validation and production, respectively). The fact that the risk was not wide-spread was only because the precision and bias of modern LC-MS assays are usually much better than the minimum regulatory requirements. Despite minor differences in magnitude, very similar accuracy profiles and/or conclusions were obtained from the four different total error approaches. High correlation was even observed in the width of bias intervals. For example, the mean width of SFSTP's β-expectation is 1.10-fold (CV=7.6%) of that of Saffaj-Ihssane's uncertainty approach, while the latter is 1.13-fold (CV=6.0%) of that of Hoffman-Kringle's β-content approach. To conclude, the risk of accepting unacceptable batches was real with the current approach, suggesting that total error approaches should be used instead. Moreover, any of the four total error approaches may be used because of their overall similarity. Lastly, the difficulties/obstacles associated with the application of total error approaches in routine analysis and their desirable future improvements are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental Biosciences Program Quarterly Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lawrence C. Mohr, M.D.

2009-01-30

Current research projects have focused Environmental Biosciences Program (EBP) talent and resources on providing the scientific basis for risk-based standards, risk-based decision making and the accelerated clean-up of widespread environmental hazards. These hazards include trichloroethylene, low-dose ionizing radiation (gamma and neutron) and alpha radiation from plutonium. Trichloroethylene research has been conducted as a joint collaborative effort with the University of Georgia. Work on the trichloroethylene research projects has been slowed as a result of funding uncertainties. The impact of these funding uncertainties has been discussed with the United States Department of Energy (DOE). Laboratory work has been completed on severalmore » trichloroethylene risk assessment projects, and these projects have been brought to a close. Plans for restructuring the performance schedule of the remaining trichloroethylene projects have been submitted to the department. A comprehensive manuscript on the scientific basis of trichloroethylene risk assessment is in preparation. Work on the low-dose radiation risk assessment projects is also progressing at a slowed rate as a result of funding uncertainties. It has been necessary to restructure the proponency and performance schedule of these projects, with the project on Low-Dose Radiation: Epidemiology Risk Models transferred to DOE Office of Science proponency under a separate funding instrument. Research on this project will continue under the provisions of the DOE Office of Science funding instrument, with progress reported in accordance with the requirements of that funding instrument. Progress on that project will no longer be reported in quarterly reports for DE-FC09-02CH11109. Following a meeting at the Savannah River Site on May 8, 2008, a plan was submitted for development of an epidemiological cohort study and prospective medical surveillance system for the assessment of disease rates among workers at the Savannah River Site (SRS). This project will be incorporated into the ongoing project on Population Health Risks in the Vicinity of the Savannah River Site. During a meeting at the SRS on October 21, 2008, a presentation was made on EBP participation in the development and operation of an Epidemiology Consortium at the SRS. A follow-up meeting with SRS officials is planned for 29 and 30 January 2009 at Medical University of South Carolina (MUSC).An epidemiology project on population health risk assessment is being conducted to assess health risks among populations in the vicinity of the SRS. This project is using the capabilities of the EBP GIS for the geographical assessment of cancer and non-cancer disease rates, as well as the potential association of population health risks with environmental exposures. Although funding uncertainties have slowed progress on some aspects of this project, it has not been necessary to restructure the performance schedule to date.« less

Multidimensional Risk Analysis: MRISK

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCollum, Raymond; Brown, Douglas; O'Shea, Sarah Beth; Reith, William; Rabulan, Jennifer; Melrose, Graeme

2015-01-01

Multidimensional Risk (MRISK) calculates the combined multidimensional score using Mahalanobis distance. MRISK accounts for covariance between consequence dimensions, which de-conflicts the interdependencies of consequence dimensions, providing a clearer depiction of risks. Additionally, in the event the dimensions are not correlated, Mahalanobis distance reduces to Euclidean distance normalized by the variance and, therefore, represents the most flexible and optimal method to combine dimensions. MRISK is currently being used in NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project o assess risk and prioritize scarce resources.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gardner, S.

Louisiana, now in a developmental stage of policy and planning, has completed a project aimed at reducing hazardous releases of air toxics in thee state. The state is also conducting a Comparative Risk Project and is using risk assessment practices to develop its waste quality standards. In developing an air toxic list, Louisiana incorporated four major criteria into the ranking: emission levels, human health effects, potential population exposure, and persistence or accumulation in the environment. For the human health effects criterion, data for each substance was gathered from numerous sources, although the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) database was usedmore » as a primary source for toxicological information. Following guidelines established by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Office of Water Resources, Water Pollution Control Division, has developed numerical criteria for human health protection based on risk assessment procedures in the 1989 Water Quality Standards Revision. Currently over 30 toxic substances have risk-based criteria for th protection of human health in the standards. Numerical criteria were calculated for carcinogenic substances having an EPA Classification of A, B1, B2, or C. Cancer class designations along with cancer potency slopes and reference doses were extracted from the IRIS database, with the exception of those chemicals that had not been assessed in IRIS as of December 1, 1988. The parameters necessary for calculating human health criteria for the missing chemicals were taken from 1980, 1984, and 1985 ambient water quality criteria documents: data on bioconcentration factors were included. Currently, Louisiana is working on a Comparative Risk Project, a ranking of the environmental issues in the state relative to potential risk to the public, which is the basis for a widespread 1991 public outreach effort.« less

Overview of NASA's Thermal Control System Development for Exploration Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stephan, Ryan A.

2011-01-01

The now-cancelled Constellation Program included the Orion, Altair, and Lunar Surface Systems project offices. The first two elements, Orion and Altair, were planned to be manned space vehicles while the third element was much more diverse and included several sub-elements. Among other things, these sub-elements were Rovers and a Lunar Habitat. The planned missions involving these systems and vehicles included several risks and design challenges. Due to the unique thermal operating environment, many of these risks and challenges were associated with the vehicles thermal control system. NASA s Exploration Technology Development Program (ETDP) consisted of various technology development projects. The project chartered with mitigating the aforementioned thermal risks and design challenges was the Thermal Control System Development for Exploration Project. These risks and design challenges were being addressed through a rigorous technology development process that was planned to culminate with an integrated thermal control system test. Although the technologies being developed were originally aimed towards mitigating specific Constellation risks, the technology development process is being continued within a new program. This continued effort is justified by the fact that many of the technologies are generically applicable to future spacecraft thermal control systems. The current paper summarizes the development efforts being performed by the technology development project. The development efforts involve heat acquisition and heat rejection hardware including radiators, heat exchangers, and evaporators. The project has also been developing advanced phase change material heat sinks and performing a material compatibility assessment for a promising thermal control system working fluid. The to-date progress and lessons-learned from these development efforts will be discussed throughout the paper.

Risk Analysis and Forecast Service for Geomagnetically Induced Currents in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wik, Magnus; Pirjola, Risto; Viljanen, Ari; Lundstedt, Henrik

Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC), occurring during magnetic storms, pose a widespread natural disaster risk to the reliable operation of electric power transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, telecommunication cables and railway systems. The solar magnetic activity is the cause of GIC. Solar coronal holes can cause recurrent inter-vals of raised geomagnetic activity, and coronal mass ejections (CME) at the Sun, sometimes producing very high speed plasma clouds with enhanced magnetic fields and particle densities, can cause the strongest geomagnetic storms. When the solar wind interacts with the geomag-netic field, energy is transferred to the magnetosphere, driving strong currents in the ionosphere. When these currents change in time a geoelectric field is induced at the surface of the Earth and in the ground. Finally, this field drives GIC in the ground and in any technological conductor systems. The worst consequence of a severe magnetic storm within a power grid is a complete blackout, as happened in the province of Québec, Canada, in March 1989, and in the city of Malmü, Sweden, in October 2003. Gas and oil pipelines are not regarded as vulnerable to the immediate impact of GIC, but the corrosion rate of buried steel pipes can increase due to GIC, which may thus shorten the lifetime of a pipe. European Risk from Geomagnetically Induced Currents (EURISGIC) is an EU project, that, if approved, will produce the first European-wide real-time prototype forecast service of GIC in power systems, based on in-situ solar wind observations and comprehensive simulations of the Earth's magnetosphere. This project focuses on high-voltage power transmission networks, which are probably currently the most susceptible to GIC effects. Geomagnetic storms cover large geographical regions, at times the whole globe. Consequently, power networks are rightly described as being European critical infrastructures whose disruption or destruction could have a significant impact. The project includes six research institutes and one SME, within Europe and US. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Swedish civil contingencies agency (MSB), and representatives from the European Commission are collaborating with the NOAA National Weather Service and other research institutes on various space weather scenarios -geomagnetic storms with widespread blackouts and disruptions in communications. The aim of this new project is to conduct a risk analysis from GIC on critical infrastructure. Large amounts of natural gas are transported from Russia to Central Europe. Those long pipelines are prone to GIC impacts, which should also be evaluated quantitatively. We will use the EURISGIC project to inform the pipeline community of present European capability in GIC modelling, forecasting and in developing mitigation measures.

Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

1976-11-01

Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis,more » and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.« less

The NASA Space Radiation Research Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.

2006-01-01

We present a comprehensive overview of the NASA Space Radiation Research Program. This program combines basic research on the mechanisms of radiobiological action relevant for improving knowledge of the risks of cancer, central nervous system and other possible degenerative tissue effects, and acute radiation syndromes from space radiation. The keystones of the NASA Program are five NASA Specialized Center's of Research (NSCOR) investigating space radiation risks. Other research is carried out through peer-reviewed individual investigations and in collaboration with the US Department of Energies Low-Dose Research Program. The Space Radiation Research Program has established the Risk Assessment Project to integrate data from the NSCOR s and other peer-reviewed research into quantitative projection models with the goals of steering research into data and scientific breakthroughs that will reduce the uncertainties in current risk projections and developing the scientific knowledge needed for future individual risk assessment approaches and biological countermeasure assessments or design. The NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) at Brookhaven National Laboratory was created by the Program to simulate space radiation on the ground in support of the above research programs. New results from NSRL will be described.

Integrated Cost and Schedule using Monte Carlo Simulation of a CPM Model - 12419

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hulett, David T.; Nosbisch, Michael R.

This discussion of the recommended practice (RP) 57R-09 of AACE International defines the integrated analysis of schedule and cost risk to estimate the appropriate level of cost and schedule contingency reserve on projects. The main contribution of this RP is to include the impact of schedule risk on cost risk and hence on the need for cost contingency reserves. Additional benefits include the prioritizing of the risks to cost, some of which are risks to schedule, so that risk mitigation may be conducted in a cost-effective way, scatter diagrams of time-cost pairs for developing joint targets of time and cost,more » and probabilistic cash flow which shows cash flow at different levels of certainty. Integrating cost and schedule risk into one analysis based on the project schedule loaded with costed resources from the cost estimate provides both: (1) more accurate cost estimates than if the schedule risk were ignored or incorporated only partially, and (2) illustrates the importance of schedule risk to cost risk when the durations of activities using labor-type (time-dependent) resources are risky. Many activities such as detailed engineering, construction or software development are mainly conducted by people who need to be paid even if their work takes longer than scheduled. Level-of-effort resources, such as the project management team, are extreme examples of time-dependent resources, since if the project duration exceeds its planned duration the cost of these resources will increase over their budgeted amount. The integrated cost-schedule risk analysis is based on: - A high quality CPM schedule with logic tight enough so that it will provide the correct dates and critical paths during simulation automatically without manual intervention. - A contingency-free estimate of project costs that is loaded on the activities of the schedule. - Resolves inconsistencies between cost estimate and schedule that often creep into those documents as project execution proceeds. - Good-quality risk data that are usually collected in risk interviews of the project team, management and others knowledgeable in the risk of the project. The risks from the risk register are used as the basis of the risk data in the risk driver method. The risk driver method is based in the fundamental principle that identifiable risks drive overall cost and schedule risk. - A Monte Carlo simulation software program that can simulate schedule risk, burn WM2012 rate risk and time-independent resource risk. The results include the standard histograms and cumulative distributions of possible cost and time results for the project. However, by simulating both cost and time simultaneously we can collect the cost-time pairs of results and hence show the scatter diagram ('football chart') that indicates the joint probability of finishing on time and on budget. Also, we can derive the probabilistic cash flow for comparison with the time-phased project budget. Finally the risks to schedule completion and to cost can be prioritized, say at the P-80 level of confidence, to help focus the risk mitigation efforts. If the cost and schedule estimates including contingency reserves are not acceptable to the project stakeholders the project team should conduct risk mitigation workshops and studies, deciding which risk mitigation actions to take, and re-run the Monte Carlo simulation to determine the possible improvement to the project's objectives. Finally, it is recommended that the contingency reserves of cost and of time, calculated at a level that represents an acceptable degree of certainty and uncertainty for the project stakeholders, be added as a resource-loaded activity to the project schedule for strategic planning purposes. The risk analysis described in this paper is correct only for the current plan, represented by the schedule. The project contingency reserve of time and cost that are the main results of this analysis apply if that plan is to be followed. Of course project managers have the option of re-planning and re-scheduling in the face of new facts, in part by mitigating risk. This analysis identifies the high-priority risks to cost and to schedule, which assist the project manager in planning further risk mitigation. Some project managers reject the results and argue that they cannot possibly be so late or so overrun. Those project managers may be wasting an opportunity to mitigate risk and get a more favorable outcome. (authors)« less

Deployment of Wind Turbines in the Built Environment: Risks, Lessons, and Recommended Practices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baring-Gould, Ian; Fields, Jason; Oteri, Frank

Built-environment wind turbine (BEWT) projects are wind energy projects that are constructed on, in, or near buildings, as shown below. These projects present an opportunity for distributed, low-carbon generation combined with highly visible statements on sustainability, but the BEWT niche of the wind industry is still developing and is relatively less mature than the utility-scale wind or conventional ground-based distributed wind sectors. This poster investigates the current state of the BEWT industry by reviewing available literature on BEWT projects as well as interviewing project owners on their experiences deploying and operating the technology.

Overview of the Mid-America Transportation Center Research Program

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-10-20

MATC Research Overview: - U.S.D.O.T. Region VII University Transportation Center - 51 Current Research Projects - 63 Graduate RA's. Improving safety and minimizing risk associated with increasing multi-modal freight movements.

TU-EF-204-09: A Preliminary Method of Risk-Informed Optimization of Tube Current Modulation for Dose Reduction in CT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Y; Liu, B; Kalra, M

Purpose: X-rays from CT scans can increase cancer risk to patients. Lifetime Attributable Risk of Cancer Incidence for adult patients has been investigated and shown to decrease as patient age. However, a new risk model shows an increasing risk trend for several radiosensitive organs for middle age patients. This study investigates the feasibility of a general method for optimizing tube current modulation (TCM) functions to minimize risk by reducing radiation dose to radiosensitive organs of patients. Methods: Organ-based TCM has been investigated in literature for eye lens dose and breast dose. Adopting the concept in organ-based TCM, this study seeksmore » to find an optimized tube current for minimal total risk to breasts and lungs by reducing dose to these organs. The contributions of each CT view to organ dose are determined through simulations of CT scan view-by-view using a GPU-based fast Monte Carlo code, ARCHER. A Linear Programming problem is established for tube current optimization, with Monte Carlo results as weighting factors at each view. A pre-determined dose is used as upper dose boundary, and tube current of each view is optimized to minimize the total risk. Results: An optimized tube current is found to minimize the total risk of lungs and breasts: compared to fixed current, the risk is reduced by 13%, with breast dose reduced by 38% and lung dose reduced by 7%. The average tube current is maintained during optimization to maintain image quality. In addition, dose to other organs in chest region is slightly affected, with relative change in dose smaller than 10%. Conclusion: Optimized tube current plans can be generated to minimize cancer risk to lungs and breasts while maintaining image quality. In the future, various risk models and greater number of projections per rotation will be simulated on phantoms of different gender and age. National Institutes of Health R01EB015478.« less

The Iodine Satellite (iSAT) Hall Thruster Demonstration Mission Concept and Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dankanich, John W.; Polzin, Kurt A.; Calvert, Derek; Kamhawi, Hani

2014-01-01

The use of iodine propellant for Hall thrusters has been studied and proposed by multiple organizations due to the potential mission benefits over xenon. In 2013, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center competitively selected a project for the maturation of an iodine flight operational feed system through the Technology Investment Program. Multiple partnerships and collaborations have allowed the team to expand the scope to include additional mission concept development and risk reduction to support a flight system demonstration, the iodine Satellite (iSAT). The iSAT project was initiated and is progressing towards a technology demonstration mission preliminary design review. The current status of the mission concept development and risk reduction efforts in support of this project is presented.

Health risk in the context of climate change and adaptation - Concept and mapping as an integrated approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kienberger, S.; Notenbaert, A.; Zeil, P.; Bett, B.; Hagenlocher, M.; Omolo, A.

2012-04-01

Climate change has been stated as being one of the greatest challenges to global health in the current century. Climate change impacts on human health and the socio-economic and related poverty consequences are however still poorly understood. While epidemiological issues are strongly coupled with environmental and climatic parameters, the social and economic circumstances of populations might be of equal or even greater importance when trying to identify vulnerable populations and design appropriate and well-targeted adaptation measures. The inter-linkage between climate change, human health risk and socio-economic impacts remains an important - but largely outstanding - research field. We present an overview on how risk is traditionally being conceptualised in the human health domain and reflect critically on integrated approaches as being currently used in the climate change context. The presentation will also review existing approaches, and how they can be integrated towards adaptation tools. Following this review, an integrated risk concept is being presented, which has been currently adapted under the EC FP7 research project (HEALTHY FUTURES; http://www.healthyfutures.eu/). In this approach, health risk is not only defined through the disease itself (as hazard) but also by the inherent vulnerability of the system, population or region under study. It is in fact the interaction of environment and society that leads to the development of diseases and the subsequent risk of being negatively affected by it. In this conceptual framework vulnerability is being attributed to domains of lack of resilience as well as underlying preconditions determining susceptibilities. To fulfil a holistic picture vulnerability can be associated to social, economic, environmental, institutional, cultural and physical dimensions. The proposed framework also establishes the important nexus to adaptation and how different measures can be related to avoid disease outbreaks, reduce vulnerability in order to lower health risks and disease impacts. The proposed framework explains the generic concepts of disease hazard, vulnerability, risk and its connections. It can be applied to many different diseases and implemented in different ways. Statistical or dynamic disease models integrating future climate projections can - for example - be combined with forecast models. These can be evaluated against different socio-economic development pathways and feed into decisions support systems with an ultimate aim of designing the most appropriate risk reduction strategies. The paper will present first preliminary results on the mapping of vulnerability for the Eastern African region, including diseases such as Malaria, Schistosomiasis and Rift Valley Fever and conclude with current research challenges and how they will be addressed within the HEALTHY FUTURES project.

Prototype Biology-Based Radiation Risk Module Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Terrier, Douglas; Clayton, Ronald G.; Patel, Zarana; Hu, Shaowen; Huff, Janice

2015-01-01

Biological effects of space radiation and risk mitigation are strategic knowledge gaps for the Evolvable Mars Campaign. The current epidemiology-based NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model contains large uncertainties (HAT #6.5a) due to lack of information on the radiobiology of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and lack of human data. The use of experimental models that most accurately replicate the response of human tissues is critical for precision in risk projections. Our proposed study will compare DNA damage, histological, and cell kinetic parameters after irradiation in normal 2D human cells versus 3D tissue models, and it will use a multi-scale computational model (CHASTE) to investigate various biological processes that may contribute to carcinogenesis, including radiation-induced cellular signaling pathways. This cross-disciplinary work, with biological validation of an evolvable mathematical computational model, will help reduce uncertainties within NSCR and aid risk mitigation for radiation-induced carcinogenesis.

Space Radiation Organ Doses for Astronauts on Past and Future Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.

2007-01-01

We review methods and data used for determining astronaut organ dose equivalents on past space missions including Apollo, Skylab, Space Shuttle, NASA-Mir, and International Space Station (ISS). Expectations for future lunar missions are also described. Physical measurements of space radiation include the absorbed dose, dose equivalent, and linear energy transfer (LET) spectra, or a related quantity, the lineal energy (y) spectra that is measured by a tissue equivalent proportional counter (TEPC). These data are used in conjunction with space radiation transport models to project organ specific doses used in cancer and other risk projection models. Biodosimetry data from Mir, STS, and ISS missions provide an alternative estimate of organ dose equivalents based on chromosome aberrations. The physical environments inside spacecraft are currently well understood with errors in organ dose projections estimated as less than plus or minus 15%, however understanding the biological risks from space radiation remains a difficult problem because of the many radiation types including protons, heavy ions, and secondary neutrons for which there are no human data to estimate risks. The accuracy of projections of organ dose equivalents described here must be supplemented with research on the health risks of space exposure to properly assess crew safety for exploration missions.

Optimizing Preseason Training Loads in Australian Football.

PubMed

Carey, David L; Crow, Justin; Ong, Kok-Leong; Blanch, Peter; Morris, Meg E; Dascombe, Ben J; Crossley, Kay M

2018-02-01

To investigate whether preseason training plans for Australian football can be computer generated using current training-load guidelines to optimize injury-risk reduction and performance improvement. A constrained optimization problem was defined for daily total and sprint distance, using the preseason schedule of an elite Australian football team as a template. Maximizing total training volume and maximizing Banister-model-projected performance were both considered optimization objectives. Cumulative workload and acute:chronic workload-ratio constraints were placed on training programs to reflect current guidelines on relative and absolute training loads for injury-risk reduction. Optimization software was then used to generate preseason training plans. The optimization framework was able to generate training plans that satisfied relative and absolute workload constraints. Increasing the off-season chronic training loads enabled the optimization algorithm to prescribe higher amounts of "safe" training and attain higher projected performance levels. Simulations showed that using a Banister-model objective led to plans that included a taper in training load prior to competition to minimize fatigue and maximize projected performance. In contrast, when the objective was to maximize total training volume, more frequent training was prescribed to accumulate as much load as possible. Feasible training plans that maximize projected performance and satisfy injury-risk constraints can be automatically generated by an optimization problem for Australian football. The optimization methods allow for individualized training-plan design and the ability to adapt to changing training objectives and different training-load metrics.

Risk assessment for two bird species in northern Wisconsin

Treesearch

Megan M. Friggens; Stephen N. Matthews

2012-01-01

Species distribution models for 147 bird species have been derived using climate, elevation, and distribution of current tree species as potential predictors (Matthews et al. 2011). In this case study, a risk matrix was developed for two bird species (fig. A2-5), with projected change in bird habitat (the x axis) based on models of changing suitable habitat resulting...

Human Factors in Training

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barshi, Immanuel; Byme, Vicky; Arsintescu, Lucia

2008-01-01

Future space missions will be significantly longer than current Shuttle missions and new systems will be more complex than current systems. Increasing communication delays between crews and Earth-based support means that astronauts need to be prepared to handle the unexpected on their own. As crews become more autonomous, their potential span of control and required expertise must grow to match their autonomy. It is not possible to train for every eventuality ahead of time on the ground, or to maintain trained skills across long intervals of disuse. To adequately prepare NASA personnel for these challenges, new training approaches, methodologies, and tools are required. This research project aims at developing these training capabilities. Training efforts in FY07 strongly focused on crew medical training, but also began exploring how Space Flight Resource Management training for Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) Flight Controllers could be integrated with systems training for optimal Mission Control Center operations. Beginning in January 2008, the training research effort will include team training prototypes and tools. The Training Task addresses Program risks that lie at the intersection of the following three risks identified by the Project: 1) Risk associated with poor task design; 2) Risk of error due to inadequate information; 3) Risk associated with reduced safety and efficiency due to poor human factors design.

Developing Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change in the New York City Infrastructure-Shed: Process, Approach, Tools, and Strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Solecki, William D.; Blake, Reginald; Bowman, Malcolm; Faris, Craig; Gornitz, Vivien; Horton, Radley; Jacob, Klaus; LeBlanc, Alice; Leichenko, Robin;

Nutritional Aspects of Crewmembers' Cardiovascular Health Indicated by Dietary Lipids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thurston, Marcelle A.

1999-01-01

This summer's project examined the relationships between dietary and physiological factors on serum lipoproteins using data from past United States astronauts. Nutritional assessment was required to determine whether a relationship existed between dietary intake and risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in crewmembers. Risk for CVD was assessed by the measurement of preflight, inflight, and postflight serum lipoproteins. The purpose of this project was to evaluate the dietary practices of past crewmembers before and during flight, and to examine their relationship with blood indicators of lipid status. Because of mortality and morbidity associated with CVD, such assessments are critical for the maintenance of astronaut health before, during, and after space flight. It was anticipated that the results from this project would assess the effects space flight and diet have on cardiovascular health, thus, defining the adequacy of the current dietary recommendations during space travel. It was hypothesized that the mean preflight serum lipoproteins compared to mean postflight serum lipoproteins would not be statistically different and that the current inflight diet is adequate in nutrient content, having little or no effect on lipoprotein levels.

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

2013-01-01

Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Carbon pollution increases health inequities: lessons in resilience from the most vulnerable.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie L; Fawcett, Stephen B; Spiegel, Jerry; Tovalin, Horacio

2016-09-01

Climate change is a social justice as well as an environmental issue. The magnitude and pattern of changes in weather and climate variables are creating differential exposures, vulnerabilities, and health risks that increase stress on health systems while exacerbating existing and creating new health inequities. Examples from national and local health adaptation projects highlight that developing partnerships across sectors and levels are critical for building climate-resilient health systems and communities. Strengthening current and implementing new health interventions, such as using environmental information to develop early warning systems, can be effective in protecting the most vulnerable. However, not all projected risks of climate change can be avoided by climate policies and programs, so health system strengthening is also critical. Applying a health inequity lens can reduce current vulnerabilities while building resilience to longer-term climate change. Taking inequities into account is critical if societies are to effectively prepare for and manage the challenges ahead.

Climate change impact on the establishment and seasonal abundance of Invasive Mosquito Species: current state and future risk maps over southeast Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tagaris, Efthimios; -Eleni Sotiropoulou, Rafaella; Sotiropoulos, Andreas; Spanos, Ioannis; Milonas, Panayiotis; Michaelakis, Antonios

2017-04-01

Establishment and seasonal abundance of a region for Invasive Mosquito Species (IMS) are related to climatic parameters such as temperature and precipitation. In this work the current state is assessed using data from the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D) project over Greece and Italy for the development of current spatial risk databases of IMS. Results are validated from the installation of a prototype IMS monitoring device that has been designed and developed in the framework of the LIFE CONOPS project at key points across the two countries. Since climate models suggest changes in future temperature and precipitation rates, the future potentiality of IMS establishment and spread over Greece and Italy is assessed using the climatic parameters in 2050's provided by the NASA GISS GCM ModelE under the IPCC-A1B emissions scenarios. The need for regional climate projections in a finer grid size is assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to dynamically downscale GCM simulations. The estimated changes in the future meteorological parameters are combined with the observation data in order to estimate the future levels of the climatic parameters of interest. The final product includes spatial distribution maps presenting the future suitability of a region for the establishment and seasonal abundance of the IMS over Greece and Italy. Acknowledgement: LIFE CONOPS project "Development & demonstration of management plans against - the climate change enhanced - invasive mosquitoes in S. Europe" (LIFE12 ENV/GR/000466).

Changes in DSTO Support to Projects Arising From the 6th July 2006 DCIC Decision: Updated Guidance for Project S&T Plans

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-02-01

responsible to the Government for certifying these technical risks [4] and [5] The current funding model for Project S&T Plans is: • Pre-First...the new costing spreadsheets at Annexes C-E. 3.1 A complete set of S&T Activities The 6th July 2006 DCIC decisions to change the funding model increase...changes to the funding model mean that the set of S&T Activities in the Project S&T Plans will need to be categorised in new ways to fit in with the

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leetaru, Hannes

This report describes a process and provides seed information for identifying and evaluating risks pertinent to a hypothetical carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) capture and sequestration (CCS) project. In the envisioned project, the target sequestration reservoir rock is the Potosi Formation of the Knox Supergroup. The Potosi is identified as a potential target formation because (1) at least locally, it contains vuggy to cavernous layers that have very high porosity, and (2) it is present in areas where the deeper Mt. Simon Sandstone (a known potential reservoir unit) is absent or nonporous. The key report content is discussed in Section 3.3,more » which describes two lists of Features, Events, and Processes (FEPs) that should be considered during the design stage of such a project. These lists primarily highlight risk elements particular to the establishment of the Potosi as the target formation in general. The lists are consciously incomplete with respect to risk elements that would be relevant for essentially all CCS projects regardless of location or geology. In addition, other risk elements specific to a particular future project site would have to be identified. Sources for the FEPs and scenarios listed here include the iconic Quintessa FEPs list developed for the International Energy Agency Greenhouse Gas (IEAGHG) Programme; previous risk evaluation projects executed by Schlumberger Carbon Services; and new input solicited from experts currently working on aspects of CCS in the Knox geology. The projects used as sources of risk information are primarily those that have targeted carbonate reservoir rocks similar in age, stratigraphy, and mineralogy to the Knox-Potosi. Risks of using the Potosi Formation as the target sequestration reservoir for a CCS project include uncertainties about the levels of porosity and permeability of that rock unit; the lateral consistency and continuity of those properties; and the ability of the project team to identify suitable (i.e., persistently porous and permeable) injection depths within the overall formation. Less direct implications include the vertical position of the Potosi within the rock column and the absence of a laterally extensive shale caprock immediately overlying the Potosi. Based on modeling work done partly in association with this risk report, risks that should also be evaluated include the ability of available methods to predict and track the development of a CO{sub 2} plume as it migrates away from the injection point(s). The geologic and hydrodynamic uncertainties present risks that are compounded at the stage of acquiring necessary drilling and injection permits. It is anticipated that, in the future, a regional geologic study or CO{sub 2}-emitter request may identify a small specific area as a prospective CCS project site. At that point, the FEPs lists provided in this report should be evaluated by experts for their relative levels of risk. A procedure for this evaluation is provided. The higher-risk FEPs should then be used to write project-specific scenarios that may themselves be evaluated for risk. Then, actions to reduce and to manage risk can be described and undertaken. The FEPs lists provided as Appendix 2 should not be considered complete, as potentially the most important risks are ones that have not yet been thought of. But these lists are intended to include the most important risk elements pertinent to a Potosi-target CCS project, and they provide a good starting point for diligent risk identification, evaluation, and management.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hnottavange-Telleen, Ken; Leetaru, Hannes

This report describes a process and provides seed information for identifying and evaluating risks pertinent to a hypothetical carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and sequestration (CCS) project. In the envisioned project, the target sequestration reservoir rock is the Potosi Formation of the Knox Supergroup. The Potosi is identified as a potential target formation because (1) at least locally, it contains vuggy to cavernous layers that have very high porosity, and (2) it is present in areas where the deeper Mt. Simon Sandstone (a known potential reservoir unit) is absent or nonporous. The key report content is discussed in Section 3.3, whichmore » describes two lists of Features, Events, and Processes (FEPs) that should be considered during the design stage of such a project. These lists primarily highlight risk elements particular to the establishment of the Potosi as the target formation in general. The lists are consciously incomplete with respect to risk elements that would be relevant for essentially all CCS projects regardless of location or geology. In addition, other risk elements specific to a particular future project site would have to be identified. Sources for the FEPs and scenarios listed here include the iconic Quintessa FEPs list developed for the International Energy Agency Greenhouse Gas (IEAGHG) Programme; previous risk evaluation projects executed by Schlumberger Carbon Services; and new input solicited from experts currently working on aspects of CCS in the Knox geology. The projects used as sources of risk information are primarily those that have targeted carbonate reservoir rocks similar in age, stratigraphy, and mineralogy to the Knox-Potosi. Risks of using the Potosi Formation as the target sequestration reservoir for a CCS project include uncertainties about the levels of porosity and permeability of that rock unit; the lateral consistency and continuity of those properties; and the ability of the project team to identify suitable (i.e., persistently porous and permeable) injection depths within the overall formation. Less direct implications include the vertical position of the Potosi within the rock column and the absence of a laterally extensive shale caprock immediately overlying the Potosi. Based on modeling work done partly in association with this risk report, risks that should also be evaluated include the ability of available methods to predict and track the development of a CO2 plume as it migrates away from the injection point(s). The geologic and hydrodynamic uncertainties present risks that are compounded at the stage of acquiring necessary drilling and injection permits. It is anticipated that, in the future, a regional geologic study or CO2-emitter request may identify a small specific area as a prospective CCS project site. At that point, the FEPs lists provided in this report should be evaluated by experts for their relative levels of risk. A procedure for this evaluation is provided. The higher-risk FEPs should then be used to write project-specific scenarios that may themselves be evaluated for risk. Then, actions to reduce and to manage risk can be described and undertaken. The FEPs lists provided as Appendix 2 should not be considered complete, as potentially the most important risks are ones that have not yet been thought of. But these lists are intended to include the most important risk elements pertinent to a Potosi-target CCS project, and they provide a good starting point for diligent risk identification, evaluation, and management.« less

Electric Propulsion Requirements and Mission Analysis Under NASA's In-Space Propulsion Technology Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dudzinski, Leonard a.; Pencil, Eric J.; Dankanich, John W.

2007-01-01

The In-Space Propulsion Technology Project (ISPT) is currently NASA's sole investment in electric propulsion technologies. This project is managed at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) for the NASA Headquarters Science Mission Directorate (SMD). The objective of the electric propulsion project area is to develop near-term and midterm electric propulsion technologies to enhance or enable future NASA science missions while minimizing risk and cost to the end user. Systems analysis activities sponsored by ISPT seek to identify future mission applications in order to quantify mission requirements, as well as develop analytical capability in order to facilitate greater understanding and application of electric propulsion and other propulsion technologies in the ISPT portfolio. These analyses guide technology investments by informing decisions and defining metrics for technology development to meet identified mission requirements. This paper discusses the missions currently being studied for electric propulsion by the ISPT project, and presents the results of recent electric propulsion (EP) mission trades. Recent ISPT systems analysis activities include: an initiative to standardize life qualification methods for various electric propulsion systems in order to retire perceived risk to proposed EP missions; mission analysis to identify EP requirements from Discovery, New Frontiers, and Flagship classes of missions; and an evaluation of system requirements for radioisotope-powered electric propulsion. Progress and early results of these activities is discussed where available.

[Current problems arising from not having biosafety level 4 laboratories in Japan--qualitative study of infectious disease experts].

PubMed

Yamamoto, Yuko; Horiguchi, Itsuko; Marui, Eiji

2009-09-01

No public consensus exists yet on handling Biosafety Level 4 agents and no laboratory is operational at BSL4 in Japan. A discussion that includes neighboring residents and experts should be initiated to communicate risks. In this article, we present the current situation and prioritize problems we presently face. A three-stage Delphi survey was conducted. The subjects were twenty-two persons with extensive experience and knowledge of infectious diseases. Seven projections and issues were made with regard to the problems arising from the lack of an operational BSL4 laboratory. These were tabulated by the KJ method. The top seven projections were scored, such that the top received 7 points and the last received 1 point. A total of 51 projections were obtained for the first part of the survey, 39 for the second, and 29 for the last. The projection with the highest score was that it is impossible to cope with newly emerging infectious diseases. The second was that complete diagnoses are impossible without a BSL4 laboratory. All projections and issues were divided into the following four main groups: issues for researchers and laboratory staff, clinical practice and research on BSL4 agents, domestic and global security, and Japan's international position. We clarified possible problem arising from not having BSL4 laboratories in Japan. The identification of projections by the Delphi survey in this study should be considered as one of many attempts to develop effective risk communication strategies.

Study on optimized decision-making model of offshore wind power projects investment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Tian; Yang, Shangdong; Gao, Guowei; Ma, Li

2018-02-01

China’s offshore wind energy is of great potential and plays an important role in promoting China’s energy structure adjustment. However, the current development of offshore wind power in China is inadequate, and is much less developed than that of onshore wind power. On the basis of considering all kinds of risks faced by offshore wind power development, an optimized model of offshore wind power investment decision is established in this paper by proposing the risk-benefit assessment method. To prove the practicability of this method in improving the selection of wind power projects, python programming is used to simulate the investment analysis of a large number of projects. Therefore, the paper is dedicated to provide decision-making support for the sound development of offshore wind power industry.

Fabrication and Testing of CERMET Fuel Materials for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hickman, Robert; Broadway, Jeramie; Mireles, Omar

2012-01-01

A first generation Nuclear Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (NCPS) based on Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) is currently being developed for Advanced Space Exploration Systems. The overall goal of the project is to address critical NTP technology challenges and programmatic issues to establish confidence in the affordability and viability of NTP systems. The current technology roadmap for NTP identifies the development of a robust fuel form as a critical near term need. The lack of a qualified nuclear fuel is a significant technical risk that will require a considerable fraction of program resources to mitigate. Due to these risks and the cost for qualification, the development and selection of a primary fuel must begin prior to Authority to Proceed (ATP) for a specific mission. The fuel development is a progressive approach to incrementally reduce risk, converge the fuel materials, and mature the design and fabrication process of the fuel element. A key objective of the current project is to advance the maturity of CERMET fuels. The work includes fuel processing development and characterization, fuel specimen hot hydrogen screening, and prototypic fuel element testing. Early fuel materials development is critical to help validate requirements and fuel performance. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview and status of the work at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC).

AIDS Community Demonstration Projects for HIV prevention among hard-to-reach groups.

PubMed Central

O'Reilly, K R; Higgins, D L

1991-01-01

The AIDS Community Demonstration Projects are multicenter prevention projects directing community-based interventions to members of hard-to-reach groups at risk of infection from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which causes acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The projects are supported by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). Interventions are derived from theories of behavior change and have as their goal reducing HIV and other sexually transmitted diseases in the communities. The current objectives, intentionally narrow to improve the project's specificity and clarity, are to increase the use of condoms in sexual activity and the use of bleach to clean injecting drug equipment. Additional objectives may be added. The impact of the interventions is seen in increases in the use of HIV counseling and testing services, decreases in all or specific sexual and drug-use risk behaviors, and requests for related social and public health services. A quasi-experimental research design is being used to evaluate the projects. Multiple evaluation measures are used, including a street-based interview with randomly identified respondents in both intervention and control communities. Success in facilitating HIV and AIDS risk reduction is being measured using a model of behavior change describing stages of change. Upon successful completion of these projects in 1994, CDC may be able to offer models of effective, feasible, and easy-to-monitor State and local health departments and community-based organizations. PMID:1659721

Risk management in obstetric care for family physicians: results of a 10-year project.

PubMed

Nesbitt, Thomas S; Hixon, Allen; Tanji, Jeffrey L; Scherger, Joseph E; Abbott, Dana

2003-01-01

Malpractice issues within the United States remain a critical factor for family physicians providing obstetric care. Although tort reform is being widely discussed, little has been written regarding the malpractice crisis from a risk management perspective. Between 1989 and 1998, a 10-year risk management study at the UC Davis Health System provided a unique collaboration between researchers, a mutual insurance carrier and family physicians practicing obstetrics. Physicians were asked to comply with standardized clinical guidelines, attend continuing medical education (CME) seminars, and submit obstetric medical records for review. Feedback analysis was provided to each physician on their records, and the insurance carrier tracked interim malpractice claims. One hundred and ninety-four physicians participated, attending to 32,831 births. Compliance with project guidelines was 91%. Five closed obstetric cases were reported with only one settlement reported to the National Provider Data Bank. Physicians believed the project was beneficial to their practices. Family physicians practicing obstetrics are willing to participate in a collaborative risk management program and are compliant with standardized clinical guidelines. The monetary award for successful malpractice claims was relatively low. This collaborative risk management model may offer a potential solution to the current malpractice crisis.

Co-Creating theories and research design for an interdisciplinary project dealing with capacity building for people with migration background in Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, Karin; Tscharner, Susanna; Stickler, Therese; Fuchs, Britta; Damyanovic, Doris; Hübl, Johannes

2017-04-01

Understanding spatial and social aspects of vulnerability is of growing importance in the context of climate change and natural hazards. The interplay of structural factors, socio-demographic aspects, current risk communication strategies, spatial planning instruments and related processes and the current spatial and environmental situation, including hazards and hazard zones, geographical locations, building and settlement types, contributing to people`s vulnerabilities needs to be analysed and understood to reduce vulnerability and to foster resilience. The project "CCCapMig" (Climate change and capacity building for people with migration background in Austria) aims at linking spatial and technical, as well as organisational and social aspects of climate change and natural hazards. This paper focuses on the co-creation of the theoretical framework and concepts and outlines the research design for this interdisciplinary cross-analysis of several case studies in rural Austria. The project is designed as an inter- and transdisciplinary survey and brings together engineering sciences, spatial sciences and social sciences. Reflecting the interdisciplinary approach, a theoretical framework was developed that refers to a combination of both theories and frameworks from vulnerability research, theories of risk perception and spatial theories and methods like the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework, the Protection-Motivation Theory and Landscape-Planning Theories: The "Sustainable Livelihoods Framework" adapted (by FA0) for disaster risk management offers an analytical framework to understand the emergence of vulnerabilities from the perspective of people`s livelihoods on individual and community level. It includes human, social, natural, physical and financial aspects and the role of institutions, policies and legal rights in reducing or increasing exposure to disaster risk and coping capacities. Additionally, theories on risk perception, especially Protection-Motivation Theory, developed by social sciences, will be used as assessment frame to understand people`s flood damage mitigation behaviour. Furthermore, spatial theories and landscape planning approaches (like an everyday, evidence-based approach) are combined with theories from social sciences reflecting the interdisciplinary approach of this project that has become standard in studies on disaster and climate change. This theoretical approach was developed through a collaborative research at the beginning of the research design in order to a) develop further and test existing concepts, b) to fine-tune the proposed method setting, c) to foster common understanding of theories and methods within the interdisciplinary research team. In general, the research process is characterised by critical theory and brings in reflective elements, allowing feedback circles between methods and theories. End-users and decision-makers will be integral partners, ensuring that feasibility of the recommendations and guidelines will be guaranteed. Consequently, the methods of data collection in this project reflect the results of the critical discussion of the theoretical frameworks and combine methods of social sciences: interviews with inhabitants living in hazard zones, detailed surveys of families, focus group discussions, and expert interviews with local and regional stakeholders involved in disaster risk management. In addition to that, structural factors, demographic data, current risk communication strategies, legal instruments and related processes and the current spatial and environmental situation (including hazards and hazard zones, geographical locations, building and settlement types) are analysed.

Assessment of the Probability of Autochthonous Transmission of Chikungunya Virus in Canada under Recent and Projected Climate Change

PubMed Central

Fazil, Aamir; Gachon, Philippe; Deuymes, Guillaume; Radojević, Milka; Mascarenhas, Mariola; Garasia, Sophiya; Johansson, Michael A.; Ogden, Nicholas H.

2017-01-01

Background: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a reemerging pathogen transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. The ongoing Caribbean outbreak is of concern due to the potential for infected travelers to spread the virus to countries where vectors are present and the population is susceptible. Although there has been no autochthonous transmission of CHIKV in Canada, there is concern that both Ae. albopictus and CHIKV will become established, particularly under projected climate change. We developed risk maps for autochthonous CHIKV transmission in Canada under recent (1981–2010) and projected climate (2011–2040 and 2041–2070). Methods: The risk for CHIKV transmission was the combination of the climatic suitability for CHIKV transmission potential and the climatic suitability for the presence of Ae. albopictus; the former was assessed using a stochastic model to calculate R0 and the latter was assessed by deriving a suitability indicator (SIG) that captures a set of climatic conditions known to influence the ecology of Ae. albopictus. R0 and SIG were calculated for each grid cell in Canada south of 60°N, for each time period and for two emission scenarios, and combined to produce overall risk categories that were mapped to identify areas suitable for transmission and the duration of transmissibility. Findings: The risk for autochthonous CHIKV transmission under recent climate is very low with all of Canada classified as unsuitable or rather unsuitable for transmission. Small parts of southern coastal British Columbia become progressively suitable with short-term and long-term projected climate; the duration of potential transmission is limited to 1–2 months of the year. Interpretation: Although the current risk for autochthonous CHIKV transmission in Canada is very low, our study could be further supported by the routine surveillance of Ae. albopictus in areas identified as potentially suitable for transmission given our uncertainty on the current distribution of this species in Canada. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP669 PMID:28731409

Update LADOTD policy on pile driving vibration management.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-02-01

The main objective of this project was to update the current Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development (LADOTD) policy on pile driving vibration risk management with a focus on how to determine an appropriate vibration monitoring area. T...

Terrestrial laser scanning-based bridge structural condition assessment : InTrans project reports.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-05-01

Objective, accurate, and fast assessment of a bridges structural condition is critical to the timely assessment of safety risks. : Current practices for bridge condition assessment rely on visual observations and manual interpretation of reports a...

Space radiation risk limits and Earth-Moon-Mars environmental models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Hu, Shaowen; Schwadron, Nathan A.; Kozarev, K.; Townsend, Lawrence W.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.

2010-12-01

We review NASA's short-term and career radiation limits for astronauts and methods for their application to future exploration missions outside of low Earth orbit. Career limits are intended to restrict late occurring health effects and include a 3% risk of exposure-induced death from cancer and new limits for central nervous system and heart disease risks. Short-term dose limits are used to prevent in-flight radiation sickness or death through restriction of the doses to the blood forming organs and to prevent clinically significant cataracts or skin damage through lens and skin dose limits, respectively. Large uncertainties exist in estimating the health risks of space radiation, chiefly the understanding of the radiobiology of heavy ions and dose rate and dose protraction effects, and the limitations in human epidemiology data. To protect against these uncertainties NASA estimates the 95% confidence in the cancer risk projection intervals as part of astronaut flight readiness assessments and mission design. Accurate organ dose and particle spectra models are needed to ensure astronauts stay below radiation limits and to support the goal of narrowing the uncertainties in risk projections. Methodologies for evaluation of space environments, radiation quality, and organ doses to evaluate limits are discussed, and current projections for lunar and Mars missions are described.

Agent-Based Simulations for Project Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, J. Chris; Sholtes, Robert M.

2011-01-01

Currently, the most common approach used in project planning tools is the Critical Path Method (CPM). While this method was a great improvement over the basic Gantt chart technique being used at the time, it now suffers from three primary flaws: (1) task duration is an input, (2) productivity impacts are not considered , and (3) management corrective actions are not included. Today, computers have exceptional computational power to handle complex simulations of task e)(eculion and project management activities (e.g ., dynamically changing the number of resources assigned to a task when it is behind schedule). Through research under a Department of Defense contract, the author and the ViaSim team have developed a project simulation tool that enables more realistic cost and schedule estimates by using a resource-based model that literally turns the current duration-based CPM approach "on its head." The approach represents a fundamental paradigm shift in estimating projects, managing schedules, and reducing risk through innovative predictive techniques.

Effectiveness of Loan Guarantees versus Tax Incentives for Space Launch Ventures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scottoline, S.; Coleman, R.

1999-01-01

Over the course of the past few years, several new and innovative fully or partiailly reusable launch vehicle designs have been initiated with the objective of reducing the cost of space transportation. These new designs are in various stages hardware development for technology and system demonstrators. The larger vehicles include the Lockheed Martin X-33 technology demonstrator for VentureStar and the Space Access launcher. The smaller launcher ventures include Kelly Space and Technology and Rotary Rocket Company. A common denominator between the new large and small commercial launch systems is the ability to obtain project financing and at an affordable cost. Both are having or will have great difficulty in obtaining financing in the capital markets because of the dollar amounts and the risk involved. The large established companies are pursuing multi-billion dollar developments which are a major challenge to finance because of the size and risk of the projects. The smaller start-up companies require less capital for their smaller systems, however, their lack of corporate financial muscle and launch vehicle track record results in a major challenge to obtain financing also because of high risk. On Wall Street, new launch system financing is a question of market, technical, organizational, legal/regulatory and financial risk. The current limit of acceptable financial risk for Space businesses on Wall Street are the telecommunications and broadcast satellite projects, of which many in number are projected for the future. Tbc recent problems with Iridium market and financial performance are casting a long shadow over new satellite project financing, making it increasingly difficult for the new satellite projects to obtain needed financing.

The SAMCO Web-platform for resilience assessment in mountainous valleys impacted by landslide risks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grandjean, Gilles; Thomas, Loic; Bernardie, Severine

2016-04-01

The ANR-SAMCO project aims to develop a proactive resilience framework enhancing the overall resilience of societies on the impacts of mountain risks. The project aims to elaborate methodological tools to characterize and measure ecosystem and societal resilience from an operative perspective on three mountain representative case studies. To achieve this objective, the methodology is split in several points: (1) the definition of the potential impacts of global environmental changes (climate system, ecosystem e.g. land use, socio-economic system) on landslide hazards, (2) the analysis of these consequences in terms of vulnerability (e.g. changes in the location and characteristics of the impacted areas and level of their perturbation) and (3) the implementation of a methodology for quantitatively investigating and mapping indicators of mountain slope vulnerability exposed to several hazard types, and the development of a GIS-based demonstration platform available on the web. The strength and originality of the SAMCO project lies in the combination of different techniques, methodologies and models (multi-hazard assessment, risk evolution in time, vulnerability functional analysis, and governance strategies) that are implemented in a user-oriented web-platform, currently in development. We present the first results of this development task, architecture and functions of the web-tools, the case studies database showing the multi-hazard maps and the stakes at risks. Risk assessment over several area of interest in Alpine or Pyrenean valleys are still in progress, but the first analyses are presented for current and future periods for which climate change and land-use (economical, geographical and social aspects) scenarios are taken into account. This tool, dedicated to stakeholders, should be finally used to evaluate resilience of mountainous regions since multiple scenarios can be tested and compared.

Misuse of child restraints

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-03-01

The purpose of this study was to obtain a measure of the current level of misuse of child restraint systems (CRSs) among the general public. The project focused specifically on forms of misuse that can be expected to raise the risk of injury. CRS use...

PROTEOMIC ANALYSIS OF ALLERGENS FROM METARHIZIUM ANISOPLIAE

EPA Science Inventory

Introduction

The goal of this project is the identification and characterization of allergens from the fungus Metarhizium anisopliae, using mass spectrometry (MS). The US EPA, under the "Children at Risk" program, is currently addressing the problem of indoor fungal bioaer...

MODEL HARMONIZATION POTENTIAL AND BENEFITS

EPA Science Inventory

The IPCS Harmonization Project, which is currently ongoing under the auspices of the WHO, in the context of chemical risk assessment or exposure modeling, does not imply global standardization. Instead, harmonization is thought of as an effort to strive for consistency among appr...

PROTEOMIC ANALYSIS OF ALLERGENS FROM METARHIZIUM ANISOPLIEA

EPA Science Inventory

The goal of this project is the identification and characterization of allergens from the fungus M. Anisopliae, using mass spectrometry (MS). The US EPA, under the "Children at Risk" program, is currently addressing the problem of indoor fungal bioaerosol contamination. One of ...

Overview of Graphical User Interface for ARRBOD (Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose Projection)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Hu, Shaowen; Nounu, Hatem N.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2010-01-01

Solar particle events (SPEs) pose the risk of acute radiation sickness (ARS) to astronauts, because organ doses from large SPEs may reach critical levels during extra vehicular activities (EVAs) or lightly shielded spacecraft. NASA has developed an organ dose projection model of Baryon transport code (BRYNTRN) with an output data processing module of SUMDOSE, and a probabilistic model of acute radiation risk (ARR). BRYNTRN code operation requires extensive input preparation, and the risk projection models of organ doses and ARR take the output from BRYNTRN as an input to their calculations. With a graphical user interface (GUI) to handle input and output for BRYNTRN, these response models can be connected easily and correctly to BRYNTRN in a user friendly way. The GUI for the Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose (ARRBOD) projection code provides seamless integration of input and output manipulations required for operations of the ARRBOD modules: BRYNTRN, SUMDOSE, and the ARR probabilistic response model. The ARRBOD GUI is intended for mission planners, radiation shield designers, space operations in the mission operations directorate (MOD), and space biophysics researchers. Assessment of astronauts organ doses and ARS from the exposure to historically large SPEs is in support of mission design and operation planning to avoid ARS and stay within the current NASA short-term dose limits. The ARRBOD GUI will serve as a proof-of-concept for future integration of other risk projection models for human space applications. We present an overview of the ARRBOD GUI product, which is a new self-contained product, for the major components of the overall system, subsystem interconnections, and external interfaces.

Coherent Lidar Activities at NASA Langley Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kavaya, Michael J.; Amzajerdian, Farzin; Koch, Grady J.; Singh, Upendra N.; Yu, Jirong

2007-01-01

NASA Langley Research Center has been developing and using coherent lidar systems for many years. The current projects at LaRC are the Global Wind Observing Sounder (GWOS) mission preparation, the Laser Risk Reduction Program (LRRP), the Instrument Incubator Program (IIP) compact, rugged Doppler wind lidar project, the Autonomous precision Landing and Hazard detection and Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) project for lunar landing, and the Skywalker project to find and use thermals to extend UAV flight time. These five projects encompass coherent lidar technology development; characterization, validation, and calibration facilities; compact, rugged packaging; computer simulation; trade studies; data acquisition, processing, and display development; system demonstration; and space mission design. This paper will further discuss these activities at LaRC.

Forecasting the Future Risk of Barmah Forest Virus Disease under Climate Change Scenarios in Queensland, Australia

PubMed Central

Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

2013-01-01

Background Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. Methods/Principal Findings We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000–2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. Conclusions/Significance We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland. PMID:23690959

Skeletal Structural Consequences of Reduced Gravity Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruff, Christropher B.

1999-01-01

The overall goal of this project is to provide structurally meaningful data on bone loss after exposure to reduced gravity environments so that more precise estimates of fracture risk and the effectiveness of countermeasures in reducing fracture risk can be developed. The project has three major components: (1) measure structural changes in the limb bones of rats subjected to complete and partial nonweightbearing, with and without treatment with ibandronate and periodic full weightbearing; (2) measure structural changes in the limb bones of human bedrest subjects, with and without treatment with alendronate and resistive exercise, and Russian cosmonauts flying on the Mir Space Station; and (3) validate and extend the 2-dimensional structural analyses currently possible in the second project component (bedrest and Mir subjects) using 3-dimensional finite element modeling techniques, and determine actual fracture-producing loads on earth and in space.

Mountaineer Commercial Scale Carbon Capture and Storage Project Topical Report: Preliminary Public Design Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guy Cerimele

2011-09-30

This Preliminary Public Design Report consolidates for public use nonproprietary design information on the Mountaineer Commercial Scale Carbon Capture & Storage project. The report is based on the preliminary design information developed during the Phase I - Project Definition Phase, spanning the time period of February 1, 2010 through September 30, 2011. The report includes descriptions and/or discussions for: (1) DOE's Clean Coal Power Initiative, overall project & Phase I objectives, and the historical evolution of DOE and American Electric Power (AEP) sponsored projects leading to the current project; (2) Alstom's Chilled Ammonia Process (CAP) carbon capture retrofit technology andmore » the carbon storage and monitoring system; (3) AEP's retrofit approach in terms of plant operational and integration philosophy; (4) The process island equipment and balance of plant systems for the CAP technology; (5) The carbon storage system, addressing injection wells, monitoring wells, system monitoring and controls logic philosophy; (6) Overall project estimate that includes the overnight cost estimate, cost escalation for future year expenditures, and major project risks that factored into the development of the risk based contingency; and (7) AEP's decision to suspend further work on the project at the end of Phase I, notwithstanding its assessment that the Alstom CAP technology is ready for commercial demonstration at the intended scale.« less

Future economic outlook of Nebraska rural community pharmacies based on break-even analysis of community operational costs and county population.

PubMed

Keast, Shellie L; Jacobs, Elgene; Harrison, Donald; Farmer, Kevin; Thompson, David

2010-09-01

There is growing concern over increasingly limited access to local health care, including pharmacies, for rural citizens of the United States. Although geographically distant from most competitors, rural pharmacies may still struggle to generate an acceptable profit to remain economically viable. Therefore, a method for calculating the economic viability for a community pharmacy to recruit a potential new owner to assume the entrepreneurial risk is an important issue to consider when evaluating rural pharmacy access. The primary objective of this study was to use a modified break-even analysis to predict the future financial potential of the current pharmacy business to attract a new owner. The secondary objective was to forecast a risk level for a Nebraska county to sustain the number of pharmacies in the country beyond current ownership. This research used data provided by pharmacies that responded to a Nebraska Medicaid cost of dispensing (COD) survey in addition to data from the US Census Bureau, US Office of Management and Budget, and the Nebraska State Board of Pharmacy. Break-even analysis was used to determine the point where the prescription volume of the pharmacy not only covered the variable and fixed costs but also maintained a reasonable profit to attract new ownership. Counties were classified into 3 risk levels based on the projected available prescription volume and the number of pharmacies in each county. Sensitivity analysis was performed on the risk levels to determine the impact of variance in projected available prescription volume on the projected future outlook for the pharmacies in each county. Regression analysis of responses to the COD survey indicated that the annual break-even prescription volume ranged from 44,790 to 49,246 prescriptions per pharmacy per annum. The number of rural Nebraska pharmacies was projected to decline from 126 to 78. The number of counties in Nebraska without a single pharmacy was projected to increase from 19 to 26, and the number of counties with just one pharmacy was projected to increase from 17 to 31. Thus, the number of counties with 1 or no pharmacy was projected to increase to 57 out of the total 93 Nebraska counties. The forecasted closure of pharmacies in rural areas will cause significant portions of the state to be without a pharmacy. Low county populations will be unable to sustain a local prescription volume large enough to remove them from the high risk of pharmacy closure. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Making real options really work.

PubMed

van Putten, Alexander B; MacMillan, Ian C

2004-12-01

As a way to value growth opportunities, real options have had a difficult time catching on with managers. Many CFOs believe the method ensures the overvaluation of risky projects. This concern is legitimate, but abandoning real options as a valuation model isn't the solution. Companies that rely solely on discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis underestimate the value of their projects and may fail to invest enough in uncertain but highly promising opportunities. CFOs need not--and should not--choose one approach over the other. Far from being a replacement for DCF analysis, real options are an essential complement, and a project's total value should encompass both. DCF captures a base estimate of value; real options take into account the potential for big gains. This is not to say that there aren't problems with real options. As currently applied, they focus almost exclusively on the risks associated with revenues, ignoring the risks associated with a project's costs. It's also true that option valuations almost always ignore assets that an initial investment in a subsequently abandoned project will often leave the company. In this article, the authors present a simple formula for combining DCF and option valuations that addresses these two problems. Using an integrated approach, managers will, in the long run, select better projects than their more timid competitors while keeping risk under control. Thus, they will outperform their rivals in both the product and the capital markets.

Risks to young volunteers in international social projects.

PubMed

Martin, Jennifer; Rieke, Burkhard; Neppach, Klemens; Hillebrandt, David; Küpper, Thomas

2012-03-01

The number of young volunteers in international social projects has increased significantly with governmental and non-governmental project support. This paper investigates the hypothesis that the preventative medical advice currently given prior to departure is inadequate because the risk profile of young persons (<30 years) differs from that of the general population. A retrospective cross-sectional study was performed with participants of international social projects. A specific questionnaire was developed; inclusion criteria were age between 18 and 30 years at departure and a duration with the project of at least 6 months. One hundred and fifty-three data sets could be evaluated. Fifty-three percent were females; the destinations were as follows: 65.4% to Asia, 14.4% to Africa, and 10.5% to Latin America. The mean age was 20 years. Ninety percent of the participants received some kind of advice in travel medicine prior to departure. The vaccination rate was quite good, but pertussis (13.7%), yellow fever (80%), typhoid fever (54%), and rabies (49.7%) should be improved when travelling to high-risk regions. Food is a very important potential source of problems as 66% receive catering by the project, 56.2% from street stalls, and 44% were regularly invited to dine with locals. In Africa, only two-thirds of the participants of projects had regular access to safe water and the sanitary facilities were also poor; 51.7% of respondents reported new sexual contacts (one to more than six new partners). In most cases, condoms were used, but there were two unintended pregnancies. We conclude that young people need to be targeted with specialized advice for health and safety while abroad. This should highlight age-specific risks compared to advice for a more general population. Vaccination status should be improved for some regions and diseases.

System dynamic modelling to assess economic viability and risk trade-offs for ecological restoration in South Africa.

PubMed

Crookes, D J; Blignaut, J N; de Wit, M P; Esler, K J; Le Maitre, D C; Milton, S J; Mitchell, S A; Cloete, J; de Abreu, P; Fourie nee Vlok, H; Gull, K; Marx, D; Mugido, W; Ndhlovu, T; Nowell, M; Pauw, M; Rebelo, A

2013-05-15

Can markets assist by providing support for ecological restoration, and if so, under what conditions? The first step in addressing this question is to develop a consistent methodology for economic evaluation of ecological restoration projects. A risk analysis process was followed in which a system dynamics model was constructed for eight diverse case study sites where ecological restoration is currently being pursued. Restoration costs vary across each of these sites, as do the benefits associated with restored ecosystem functioning. The system dynamics model simulates the ecological, hydrological and economic benefits of ecological restoration and informs a portfolio mapping exercise where payoffs are matched against the likelihood of success of a project, as well as a number of other factors (such as project costs and risk measures). This is the first known application that couples ecological restoration with system dynamics and portfolio mapping. The results suggest an approach that is able to move beyond traditional indicators of project success, since the effect of discounting is virtually eliminated. We conclude that systems dynamic modelling with portfolio mapping can guide decisions on when markets for restoration activities may be feasible. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

"Flooding Risk Analysis and the Understanding of Hydrological Disturbance due to the Rapid Urbanization in a Low-Scale Subwatershed in Houston Area". ( The project develops a relavant Model of flooding risk assessment to define the connection between increased streamflow/flooding and the rapid urban land development).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geldiyev, P.

2017-12-01

Rapid urban development and changing climate influences the frequency and magnitude of flooding in Houston area. This proposed project aims to evaluate the flooding risks with the current and future land use changes by 2040 for one subbasin of the San Jacinto Brazos/Neches-Trinity Coastal basin. Surface environments and streamflow data of the Clear Creek are analyzed and stimulated to discuss the possible impact of urbanization on the occurrence of floods. The streamflow data is analyzed and simulated with the application of the Geographic Information Systems and its extensions. Both hydrologic and hydraulic models of the Clear Creek are created with the use of HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS software. Both models are duplicated for the year 2040, based on projected 2040 Landcover Maps developed by Houston and Galveston Area Council. This project examines a type of contemporary hydrologic disturbance and the interaction between land cover and changes in hydrological processes. Expected results will be very significant for urban development and flooding management.

Holistic risk-based environmental decision making: a Native perspective.

PubMed Central

Arquette, Mary; Cole, Maxine; Cook, Katsi; LaFrance, Brenda; Peters, Margaret; Ransom, James; Sargent, Elvera; Smoke, Vivian; Stairs, Arlene

2002-01-01

Native American Nations have become increasingly concerned about the impacts of toxic substances. Although risk assessment and risk management processes have been used by government agencies to help estimate and manage risks associated with exposure to toxicants, these tools have many inadequacies and as a result have not served Native people well. In addition, resources have not always been adequate to address the concerns of Native Nations, and involvement of Native decision makers on a government-to-government basis in discussions regarding risk has only recently become common. Finally, because the definitions of health used by Native people are strikingly different from that of risk assessors, there is also a need to expand current definitions and incorporate traditional knowledge into decision making. Examples are discussed from the First Environment Restoration Initiative, a project that is working to address toxicant issues facing the Mohawk territory of Akwesasne. This project is developing a community-defined model in which health is protected at the same time that traditional cultural practices, which have long been the key to individual and community health, are maintained and restored. PMID:11929736

Global climate change and local land subsidence exacerbate inundation risk to the San Francisco Bay Area

PubMed Central

Shirzaei, Manoochehr; Bürgmann, Roland

2018-01-01

The current global projections of future sea level rise are the basis for developing inundation hazard maps. However, contributions from spatially variable coastal subsidence have generally not been considered in these projections. We use synthetic aperture radar interferometric measurements and global navigation satellite system data to show subsidence rates of less than 2 mm/year along most of the coastal areas along San Francisco Bay. However, rates exceed 10 mm/year in some areas underlain by compacting artificial landfill and Holocene mud deposits. The maps estimating 100-year inundation hazards solely based on the projection of sea level rise from various emission scenarios underestimate the area at risk of flooding by 3.7 to 90.9%, compared with revised maps that account for the contribution of local land subsidence. Given ongoing land subsidence, we project that an area of 125 to 429 km2 will be vulnerable to inundation, as opposed to 51 to 413 km2 considering sea level rise alone. PMID:29536042

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Aalst, M.

Climate change is already taking place, and further changes are inevitable. Developing countries, and particularly the poorest people in these countries, are most at risk. The impacts result not only from gradual changes in temperature and sea level but also, in particular, from increased climate variability and extremes, including more intense floods, droughts, and storms. These changes are already having major impacts on the economic performance of developing countries and on the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people around the world. Climate change thus directly affects the World Bank Group's mission of eradicating poverty. It also puts atmore » risk many projects in a wide range of sectors, including infrastructure, agriculture, human health, water resources, and environment. The risks include physical threats to the investments, potential underperformance, and the possibility that projects will indirectly contribute to rising vulnerability by, for example, triggering investment and settlement in high-risk areas. The way to address these concerns is not to separate climate change adaptation from other priorities but to integrate comprehensive climate risk management into development planning, programs, and projects. While there is a great need to heighten awareness of climate risk in Bank work, a large body of experience on climate risk management is already available, in analytical work, in country dialogues, and in a growing number of investment projects. This operational experience highlights the general ingredients for successful integration of climate risk management into the mainstream development agenda: getting the right sectoral departments and senior policy makers involved; incorporating risk management into economic planning; engaging a wide range of nongovernmental actors (businesses, nongovernmental organizations, communities, and so on); giving attention to regulatory issues; and choosing strategies that will pay off immediately under current climate conditions. There are several ways in which the World Bank Group can continue helping its clients better manage climate risks to poverty reduction and sustainable development: Integrating climate risk management into the project cycle, by adopting early risk identification (for instance by applying a quick and simple risk-screening tool) and following up throughout the design process if necessary. Integrating climate risk management into country and sector dialogues, especially in countries and sectors that are particularly vulnerable. Enhancing internal support for and coordination of climate risk management by, for example, expanding analytical work and capacity for cross-support by the Global Climate Change Team and the Hazard Management Unit of the World Bank and by actively developing climate risk management activities within regional departments. Supporting the establishment of proper financing mechanisms for adaptation, using, for example, the Investment Framework for Clean Energy and Development. New funding mechanisms created under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and being made operational by the Global Environment Facility (GEF), as well as the Kyoto Protocol, should be used to leverage maximum adaptation results within the Bank's broad range of development activities and investments. By enhancing climate risk management, the World Bank Group will be able to address the growing risks from climate change and, at the same time, make current development investments more resilient to climate variability and extreme weather events. In that way, climate risk management will not only guard the Bank's investments in a changing climate but will also improve the impact of development efforts right now.« less

Risk Estimation Modeling and Feasibility Testing for a Mobile eHealth Intervention for Binge Drinking Among Young People: The D-ARIANNA (Digital-Alcohol RIsk Alertness Notifying Network for Adolescents and young adults) Project.

PubMed

Carrà, Giuseppe; Crocamo, Cristina; Schivalocchi, Alessandro; Bartoli, Francesco; Carretta, Daniele; Brambilla, Giulia; Clerici, Massimo

2015-01-01

Binge drinking is common among young people but often relevant risk factors are not recognized. eHealth apps, attractive for young people, may be useful to enhance awareness of this problem. We aimed at developing a current risk estimation model for binge drinking, incorporated into an eHealth app--D-ARIANNA (Digital-Alcohol RIsk Alertness Notifying Network for Adolescents and young adults)--for young people. A longitudinal approach with phase 1 (risk estimation), phase 2 (design), and phase 3 (feasibility) was followed. Risk/protective factors identified from the literature were used to develop a current risk estimation model for binge drinking. Relevant odds ratios were subsequently pooled through meta-analytic techniques with a random-effects model, deriving weighted estimates to be introduced in a final model. A set of questions, matching identified risk factors, were nested in a questionnaire and assessed for wording, content, and acceptability in focus groups involving 110 adolescents and young adults. Ten risk factors (5 modifiable) and 2 protective factors showed significant associations with binge drinking and were included in the model. Their weighted coefficients ranged between -0.71 (school proficiency) and 1.90 (cannabis use). The model, nested in an eHealth app questionnaire, provides in percent an overall current risk score, accompanied by appropriate images. Factors that mostly contribute are shown in summary messages. Minor changes have been realized after focus groups review. Most of the subjects (74%) regarded the eHealth app as helpful to assess binge drinking risk. We could produce an evidence-based eHealth app for young people, evaluating current risk for binge drinking. Its effectiveness will be tested in a large trial.

Global Change Drought in the Southwest: New Management Options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Udall, B. H.; Overpeck, J. T.

2015-12-01

Long held worries about future runoff declines in the Colorado River under climate change are proving to be more than just theory. Fifteen years into this century flows of the Colorado are already declining due mostly to unprecedented temperatures, and as warming proceeds, declines in river flow will grow larger. Temperature-driven droughts, some lasting decades and much more severe than the current 15-year drought, will also become more commonplace if climate change continues unabated. Current projections of future water availability almost universally understate the risk of large Colorado flow reductions under business-as-usual warming. Betting on highly uncertain projections of increased precipitation to overcome even part of the flow reductions due to virtually certain warming is a poor risk management strategy. Many of the existing water policy arrangements in the Colorado River Basin will fail in the 21st century unless innovative new solutions are developed under leadership from the federal government and its basin state partners.

Applying Formal Methods to NASA Projects: Transition from Research to Practice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Othon, Bill

2009-01-01

NASA project managers attempt to manage risk by relying on mature, well-understood process and technology when designing spacecraft. In the case of crewed systems, the margin for error is even tighter and leads to risk aversion. But as we look to future missions to the Moon and Mars, the complexity of the systems will increase as the spacecraft and crew work together with less reliance on Earth-based support. NASA will be forced to look for new ways to do business. Formal methods technologies can help NASA develop complex but cost effective spacecraft in many domains, including requirements and design, software development and inspection, and verification and validation of vehicle subsystems. To realize these gains, the technologies must be matured and field-tested so that they are proven when needed. During this discussion, current activities used to evaluate FM technologies for Orion spacecraft design will be reviewed. Also, suggestions will be made to demonstrate value to current designers, and mature the technology for eventual use in safety-critical NASA missions.

Global risk of deadly heat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mora, Camilo; Dousset, Bénédicte; Caldwell, Iain R.; Powell, Farrah E.; Geronimo, Rollan C.; Bielecki, Coral R.; Counsell, Chelsie W. W.; Dietrich, Bonnie S.; Johnston, Emily T.; Louis, Leo V.; Lucas, Matthew P.; McKenzie, Marie M.; Shea, Alessandra G.; Tseng, Han; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Leon, Lisa R.; Hawkins, Ed; Trauernicht, Clay

2017-07-01

Climate change can increase the risk of conditions that exceed human thermoregulatory capacity. Although numerous studies report increased mortality associated with extreme heat events, quantifying the global risk of heat-related mortality remains challenging due to a lack of comparable data on heat-related deaths. Here we conducted a global analysis of documented lethal heat events to identify the climatic conditions associated with human death and then quantified the current and projected occurrence of such deadly climatic conditions worldwide. We reviewed papers published between 1980 and 2014, and found 783 cases of excess human mortality associated with heat from 164 cities in 36 countries. Based on the climatic conditions of those lethal heat events, we identified a global threshold beyond which daily mean surface air temperature and relative humidity become deadly. Around 30% of the world's population is currently exposed to climatic conditions exceeding this deadly threshold for at least 20 days a year. By 2100, this percentage is projected to increase to ~48% under a scenario with drastic reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and ~74% under a scenario of growing emissions. An increasing threat to human life from excess heat now seems almost inevitable, but will be greatly aggravated if greenhouse gases are not considerably reduced.

States at Risk: America's Preparedness Report Card

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, R. M. S.; Strauss, B.; Kulp, S. A.; Bronzan, J.; Rodehorst, B.; Bhat, C.; Dix, B.; Savonis, M.; Wiles, R.

2015-12-01

Many states are already experiencing the costly impacts of extreme climate and weather events. The occurrence, frequency and intensity of these events may change under future climates. Preparing for these changes takes time, and state government agencies and communities need to recognize the risks they could potentially face and the response actions already undertaken. The States at Risk: America's Preparedness Report Card project is the first-ever study that quantifies five climate-change-driven hazards, and the relevant state government response actions in each of the 50 states. The changing characteristics of extreme heat, drought, wildfires, inland and coastal flooding were assessed for the baseline period (around year 2000) through the years 2030 and 2050 across all 50 states. Bias-corrected statistically-downscaled (BCSD) climate projections (Reclamation, 2013) and hydrology projections (Reclamation, 2014) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) under RCP8.5 were used. The climate change response action analysis covers five critical sectors: Transportation, Energy, Water, Human Health and Communities. It examined whether there is evidence that the state is taking action to (1) reduce current risks, (2) raise its awareness of future risks, (3) plan for adaptation to the future risks, and (4) implement specific actions to reduce future risks for each applicable hazards. Results from the two analyses were aggregated and translated into a rating system that standardizes assessments across states, which can be easily understood by both technical and non-technical audiences. The findings in this study not only serve as a screening tool for states to recognize the hazards they could potentially face as climate changes, but also serve as a roadmap for states to address the gaps in response actions, and to improve climate preparedness and resilience.

Applying Risk and Resilience Metrics to Energy Investments

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

the model as a positive aspect, though the user can easily devalue risk and resiliency while increasing the value of the cost and policy categories to... policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. IRB Protocol number ____N/A____. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT...decision making model. The model developed for this project includes cost metrics and policy mandates that the current model considers and adds the

ISTAR: Project Status and Ground Test Engine Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quinn, Jason Eugene

2003-01-01

Review of the current technical and programmatic status of the Integrated System Test of an Airbreathing Rocket (ISTAR) project. November 2002 completed Phase 1 of this project: which worked the conceptual design of the X-43B demonstrator vehicle and Flight Test Engine (FTE) order to develop realistic requirements for the Ground Test Engine (GTE). The latest conceptual FTE and X-43B configuration is briefly reviewed. The project plan is to reduce risk to the GTE and FTE concepts through several tests: thruster, fuel endothermic characterization, engine structure/heat exchanger, injection characterization rig, and full scale direct connect combustion rig. Each of these will be discussed along with the project schedule. This discussion is limited due to ITAR restrictions on open literature papers.

Additive Manufacturing and 3D Printing in NASA: An Overview of Current Projects and Future Initiatives for Space Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clinton, R. G., Jr.

2014-01-01

NASA, including each Mission Directorate, is investing in, experimenting with, and/or utilizing AM across a broad spectrum of applications and projects; Centers have created and are continuing to create partnerships with industry, other Government Agencies, other Centers, and Universities; In-house additive manufacturing capability enables rapid iteration of the entire design, development and testing process, increasing innovation and reducing risk and cost to projects; For deep space exploration, AM offers significant reduction to logistics costs and risk by providing ability to create on demand; There are challenges: Overwhelming message from recent JANNAF AM for Propulsion Applications TIM was "certification."; NASA will continue to work with our partners to address this and other challenges to advance the state of the art in AM and incorporate these capabilities into an array of applications from aerospace to science missions to deep space exploration.

Anticipating impacts of climate change on fish habitat to support decisionmaking in hydropower licensing: a climate risk study for the Hiram Dam, Saco River, ME

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagron, C. S.; Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.

2016-12-01

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issues licenses for non-federal hydropower projects through its Integrated Licensing Process (ILP). Through this multi-stage, multi-year decision process, NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) can request studies needed to prescribe license conditions to mitigate dams' effects on trust resources, e.g. fish passages and flow requirements. NMFS must understand the combined effects of hydropower projects and climate change to fulfill its mandates to maintain fisheries and protected species. Although 30-50 year hydropower licenses and renewals are within the time frame of anticipated risks from changing climate, FERC has consistently rejected NMFS' climate study requests, stating climate science is "too uncertain," and therefore not actionable. The ILP is an opportunity to incorporate climate change risks in this decision process, and to make decisions now to avoid failures later in the system regarding both hydropower reliability (the concern of FERC and the applicant) and ecosystem health (NMFS's concern). NMFS has partnered with climate scientists at the ESRL Physical Sciences Division to co-produce a climate study request for the relicensing of the Hiram Project on the Saco River in Southern Maine. The Saco hosts Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) runs which are not currently self-sustaining. This presentation will describe basin-to-basin variability in both historic river analyses (Hydro-Climate Data Network, HCDN) and projected hydrologic responses of New England rivers to climate forcings using statewide Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) demonstrate the need to develop Saco-specific watershed models. Furthermore, although methods for projecting fishery-relevant metrics (heat waves, flood annual exceedance probabilities) have been proven in nearby basins, this modeling has not been conducted at fishery-relevant thresholds. Climate study requests are an example of bridging between science and applications. We argue that the current state of climate science provides actionable information on climate risks in the region, and will articulate the need and required elements for a Saco-specific climate study request.

Quantitative assessment of current and future risks related rainfall in processing tomato in the Guadiana river basin (SW Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castañeda-Vera, Alba; Garrido, Alberto; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Sánchez-Sánchez, Enrique; Inés Mínguez, M.

2013-04-01

An extension of risk coverages in the insurance policies for processing tomato, mainly related to rainfall events, has resulted in an important increase in claims. This suggests that damages related to extreme or ill-timed showers have been underestimated in previous years. An estimation of damages related to rainfall in the last thirty years and the impact of climate change in the risk related to rainfall in processing tomato crops in the Guadiana river basin (SW Spain) were studied through a risk index. First, the risk index was defined with temperature and relative humidity thresholds related to different damage magnitudes. Then, this index was applied to current climate and to future climate scenarios in nine weather stations representative of the studied area to determine the trends in losses related to extreme or inopportune rainfall events. Thresholds of temperature and relative humidity were obtained from cross-checking agricultural insurance records and meteorological data from local weather stations (REDAREX, http://sw-aperos.juntaex.es/redarex). To consider longer time series, the reanalysis database ERA-INTERIM (Dee et al., 2011) was used. Simulated climate was obtained from the European Project ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/). Trends in climatic risk were analysed by applying the risk index to three sets of data defining current climate (1980-2010), mid-future climate (2010-2040) and long-term future climate (2040-2070). An algorithm to choose the surrounding cell that minimizes the temperature and precipitation climatic biases and maximizes seasonal correlation when comparing ENSEMBLES regional climate model simulations and observed climate was applied before index calculation. The results show the trends in frequency and magnitude of the risk of suffering damages related to rainfall events. The methodology decreased the uncertainty on risk levels. Results contribute to detect the periods during the growing season with larger risk of damage in order to provide information to assist research on risk management practices and to support insurance policy makers to extend guaranties and to adapt the insurance conditions and costs to real crop risks. This research is being financed by MULCLIVAR project (CGL2012-38923-C02-02), MINECO, Spain Keywords: climate change, risk, rainfall, processing tomato. References Dee, D. P., with 35 co-authors, 2011: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553-597.

A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warszawski, Lila; Friend, Andrew; Ostberg, Sebastian; Frieler, Katja; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Beerling, David; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B.; Kahana, Ron; Ito, Akihiko; Keribin, Rozenn; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark; Nishina, Kazuya; Pavlick, Ryan; Tito Rademacher, Tim; Buechner, Matthias; Piontek, Franziska; Schewe, Jacob; Serdeczny, Olivia; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

2013-12-01

Climate change may pose a high risk of change to Earth’s ecosystems: shifting climatic boundaries may induce changes in the biogeochemical functioning and structures of ecosystems that render it difficult for endemic plant and animal species to survive in their current habitats. Here we aggregate changes in the biogeochemical ecosystem state as a proxy for the risk of these shifts at different levels of global warming. Estimates are based on simulations from seven global vegetation models (GVMs) driven by future climate scenarios, allowing for a quantification of the related uncertainties. 5-19% of the naturally vegetated land surface is projected to be at risk of severe ecosystem change at 2 ° C of global warming (ΔGMT) above 1980-2010 levels. However, there is limited agreement across the models about which geographical regions face the highest risk of change. The extent of regions at risk of severe ecosystem change is projected to rise with ΔGMT, approximately doubling between ΔGMT = 2 and 3 ° C, and reaching a median value of 35% of the naturally vegetated land surface for ΔGMT = 4 °C. The regions projected to face the highest risk of severe ecosystem changes above ΔGMT = 4 °C or earlier include the tundra and shrublands of the Tibetan Plateau, grasslands of eastern India, the boreal forests of northern Canada and Russia, the savanna region in the Horn of Africa, and the Amazon rainforest.

Contribution of European research to risk analysis.

PubMed

Boenke, A

2001-12-01

The European Commission's, Quality of Life Research Programme, Key Action 1-Health, Food & Nutrition is mission-oriented and aims, amongst other things, at providing a healthy, safe and high-quality food supply leading to reinforced consumer confidence in the safety, of European food. Its objectives also include the enhancing of the competitiveness of the European food supply. Key Action 1 is currently supporting a number of different types of European collaborative projects in the area of risk analysis. The objectives of these projects range from the development and validation of prevention strategies including the reduction of consumers risks; development and validation of new modelling approaches, harmonization of risk assessment principles methodologies and terminology; standardization of methods and systems used for the safety evaluation of transgenic food; providing of tools for the evaluation of human viral contamination of shellfish and quality control; new methodologies for assessing the potential of unintended effects of genetically modified (genetically modified) foods; development of a risk assessment model for Cryptosporidium parvum related to the food and water industries, to the development of a communication platform for genetically modified organism, producers, retailers, regulatory authorities and consumer groups to improve safety assessment procedures, risk management strategies and risk communication; development and validation of new methods for safety testing of transgenic food; evaluation of the safety and efficacy of iron supplementation in pregnant women, evaluation of the potential cancer-preventing activity of pro- and pre-biotic ('synbiotic') combinations in human volunteers. An overview of these projects is presented here.

Miniature Biosensor with Health Risk Assessment Feedback

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hanson, Andrea; Downs, Meghan; Kalogera, Kent; Buxton, Roxanne; Cooper, Tommy; Cooper, Alan; Cooper, Ross

2016-01-01

Heart rate (HR) monitoring is a medical requirement during exercise on the International Space Station (ISS), fitness tests, and extravehicular activity (EVA); however, NASA does not currently have the technology to consistently and accurately monitor HR and other physiological data during these activities. Performance of currently available HR monitor technologies is dependent on uninterrupted contact with the torso and are prone to data drop-out and motion artifact. Here, we seek an alternative to the chest strap and electrode based sensors currently in use on ISS today. This project aims to develop a high performance, robust earbud based biosensor with focused efforts on improved HR data quality during exercise or EVA. A health risk assessment algorithm will further advance the goals of autonomous crew health care for exploration missions.

Mitigation of Volcanic Risk: The COSMO-SkyMed Contribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sacco, Patrizia; Daraio, Maria Girolamo; Battagliere, Maria Libera; Coletta, Alessandro

2015-05-01

The Italian Space Agency (ASI) promotes Earth Observation (EO) applications related to themes such as the prediction, monitoring, management and mitigation of natural and anthropogenic hazards. The approach generally followed is the development and demonstration of prototype services, using currently available data from space missions, in particular the COSMO-SkyMed (Constellation of Small Satellites for Mediterranean basin observation) mission, which represents the largest Italian investment in Space System for EO and thanks to which Italy plays a key role worldwide. Projects funded by ASI provide the convergence of various national industry expertise, research and institutional reference users. In this context a significant example is represented by the ASI Pilot Projects, recently concluded, dealing with various thematic, such as volcanoes. In this paper a special focus will be addressed to the volcanic risk management and the contribution provided in this field by COSMO-SkyMed satellite constellation during the last years. A comprehensive overview of the various national and international projects using COSMO-SkyMed data for the volcanic risk mitigation will be given, highlighting the Italian contribution provided worldwide in this operational framework.

Preventable coronary heart disease events from control of cardiovascular risk factors in US adults with diabetes (projections from utilizing the UKPDS risk engine).

PubMed

Wong, Nathan D; Patao, Christopher; Malik, Shaista; Iloeje, Uchenna

2014-04-15

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) carries significant risks for coronary heart disease (CHD). We examined the potential US population impact of single and composite risk factor control. Among US adults with diagnosed T2DM aged≥30 years in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007 to 2012, we assessed CHD events preventable using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study CHD risk engine. We examined in all those not at goal the impact of statistical control of smoking, glycated hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, according to the predefined criteria setting risk factors at different levels of control representing (1) "All to Goal," (2) at "Nominal Control," or (3) at "Aggressive Control." Preventable CHD events represented the difference between the number of events estimated from the control of these risk factors versus current levels of the risk factors. Of 606 men (representing 6.2 million) and 603 women (6.3 million) with DM and no previous CHD, 1.3 million men and 0.7 million women would develop a CHD event within 10 years if left uncontrolled. Controlling all risk factors to goal was projected to prevent 35% and 45% of CHD events in men and women, respectively. Nominal risk factor control was projected to prevent 36% and 38% and aggressive control 51% and 61% of CHD events, respectively. In conclusion, a significant proportion of CHD events in adults with T2DM could be prevented from composite control of risk factors often not at goal. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Understanding hydro-climatic drivers of infectious diarrheal diseases in South Asia and their projected risks from regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, M. A.; Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

2017-12-01

Diarrheal diseases remain a major threat to global public health and are the second largest cause of death for children under the age of five. Cholera and Rotavirus diarrhea together comprise more than two-thirds of the diarrheal morbidity in South Asia. Recent studies have shown strong influences of hydrologic processes and climatic variabilities on the onset, intensity, and seasonality of the outbreaks of these diseases. However, our understanding of the propagation and manifestation of these diseases in a changing climate in vulnerable regions of the world are still limited. In this study, we build on our understanding of the role of the hydro-climatic drivers of diarrheal diseases in South Asia in recent decades to project the probable risks of the diseases in this century using the climate projection scenarios from dynamically downscaled climate models. To build the current model, we conducted a multivariate logistic regression assessment using 34 climate indices to examine the role of temperature and rainfall extremes over the seasonality of rotavirus and cholera over a South Asian country, Bangladesh. We utilize the availability of long and reliable time-series of cholera and rotavirus from Bangladesh and conducted a temporal and spatial analysis derived from both ground and satellite observations. For projecting the future risks of the diseases, we used five bias-corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) results of the CMIP5 series under the RCP 4.5 scenario. Cholera risk shows a significantly higher rate of increase compared to Rotavirus in Bangladesh in the 21st century. As the disease is significantly influenced by extreme rainfall, majority projections showed a significant increase in flood-driven cholera risk. Most RCMs suggest a warmer winter in future years, suggesting reduced risk for Rotavirus. However, as the dryness of the climate is also highly correlated with rotavirus epidemics, the incremental risk of the disease due to drier winters would likely undermine the reduced risk due to temperature increase. Probabilistic risk assessments of these diarrheal diseases with respect to hydro-climatic variability will, not only improve the local policymaking processes, but also allow us to pinpoint the climate-health hotspots around the globe.

Implementation of Risk Management in NASA's CEV Project- Ensuring Mission Success

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perera, Jeevan; Holsomback, Jerry D.

2005-12-01

Most project managers know that Risk Management (RM) is essential to good project management. At NASA, standards and procedures to manage risk through a tiered approach have been developed - from the global agency-wide requirements down to a program or project's implementation. The basic methodology for NASA's risk management strategy includes processes to identify, analyze, plan, track, control, communicate and document risks. The identification, characterization, mitigation plan, and mitigation responsibilities associated with specific risks are documented to help communicate, manage, and effectuate appropriate closure. This approach helps to ensure more consistent documentation and assessment and provides a means of archiving lessons learned for future identification or mitigation activities.A new risk database and management tool was developed by NASA in 2002 and since has been used successfully to communicate, document and manage a number of diverse risks for the International Space Station, Space Shuttle, and several other NASA projects and programs including at the Johnson Space Center. Organizations use this database application to effectively manage and track each risk and gain insight into impacts from other organization's viewpoint to develop integrated solutions. Schedule, cost, technical and safety issues are tracked in detail through this system.Risks are tagged within the system to ensure proper review, coordination and management at the necessary management level. The database is intended as a day-to- day tool for organizations to manage their risks and elevate those issues that need coordination from above. Each risk is assigned to a managing organization and a specific risk owner who generates mitigation plans as appropriate. In essence, the risk owner is responsible for shepherding the risk through closure. The individual that identifies a new risk does not necessarily get assigned as the risk owner. Whoever is in the best position to effectuate comprehensive closure is assigned as the risk owner. Each mitigation plan includes the specific tasks that will be conducted to either decrease the likelihood of the risk occurring and/or lessen the severity of the consequences if they do occur. As each mitigation task is completed, the responsible managing organization records the completion of the task in the risk database and then re-scores the risk considering the task's results. By keeping scores updated, a managing organization's current top risks and risk posture can be readily identified including the status of any risk in the system.A number of metrics measure risk process trends from data contained in the database. This allows for trend analysis to further identify improvements to the process and assist in the management of all risks. The metrics will also scrutinize both the effectiveness and compliance of risk management requirements.The risk database is an evolving tool and will be continuously improved with capabilities requested by the NASA project community. This paper presents the basic foundations of risk management, the elements necessary for effective risk management, and the capabilities of this new risk database and how it is implemented to support NASA's risk management needs.

Experiences on the development of a Community Based Early Warning System for mountain risks in northern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, Carolina; Sterlacchini, Simone; de Amicis, Mattia; Fontana, Michele; Trozzi, Arianna; Frigerio, Ivan

2010-05-01

In the framework of the European project Mountain Risks (http://mountain-risks.eu/), one of the projects currently developed is a methodology to integrate risk management and evacuation emergency plans, focused on prevention as a key element for disaster risk reduction, applied in the Mountain Community Valtellina of Tirano, an area recurrently affected by several mountain hazards. Taking into account the actual state of disaster risk reduction initiatives in the study area, including the existence of a real time emergency plan based on GIS (Geographical Information Systems), DSS (Decision Support Systems), and ICT (Information & Communication Technology), but knowing the lack involvement of the general community in any of the preparation activities developed until the present and the lack of divulgation of the current emergency plan, it was decided that the methodology that could better adapt to the actual conditions of the study area would be a non structural Community Based Early Warning System (CBEWS). A CBEWS has been recognized by institutions as the UN and the INSDR, as an effective and important strategy for disaster risk reduction. This strategy is broadly used especially in developing countries and has proved its effectiveness in many disasters crisis all over the world. In spite of that, possibly for political and social reasons, there are really few applications of CBEWS in developed countries which has made the elaboration of this research project a particularly difficult process due to the lack of previous references with similar conditions to the one in the study area. Difficulties related to any multidisciplinary work which also involves the general community have been faced during the development of the project such as the differences in language (both the technical jargon of the different disciplines and the native language), time restrictions, the process of learning and adapting to different social structures, the process of contacting several institutions and persons looking to co-involve them in the project. The development of the CBEWS involves several phases: hazard and risk assessment including the analysis of the legal framework and the application of an extensive social survey to evaluate the levels of risk perception, awareness, preparation and information desires of the community; the development of prevention and monitoring strategies and preparedness activities, including the development of a communication campaign developed by an interdisciplinary group to inform and educate the community and practitioner stakeholders. Preliminary results of the survey show, among others, low levels of risk perception and preparedness, and lack of knowledge and information related to natural hazards. All the results confirm the necessity of develop the communication and education campaign. The aim of the CBEWS is not only to increase the level of preparedness of the community and decrease its vulnerability, but also to strengthen institutional collaboration, in particular local institutions, in order to assure a continuity of the efforts.

Cancer Risks Associated with External Radiation From Diagnostic Imaging Procedures

PubMed Central

Linet, Martha S.; Slovis, Thomas L.; Miller, Donald L.; Kleinerman, Ruth; Lee, Choonsik; Rajaraman, Preetha; de Gonzalez, Amy Berrington

2012-01-01

The 600% increase in medical radiation exposure to the US population since 1980 has provided immense benefit, but potential future cancer risks to patients. Most of the increase is from diagnostic radiologic procedures. The objectives of this review are to summarize epidemiologic data on cancer risks associated with diagnostic procedures, describe how exposures from recent diagnostic procedures relate to radiation levels linked with cancer occurrence, and propose a framework of strategies to reduce radiation from diagnostic imaging in patients. We briefly review radiation dose definitions, mechanisms of radiation carcinogenesis, key epidemiologic studies of medical and other radiation sources and cancer risks, and dose trends from diagnostic procedures. We describe cancer risks from experimental studies, future projected risks from current imaging procedures, and the potential for higher risks in genetically susceptible populations. To reduce future projected cancers from diagnostic procedures, we advocate widespread use of evidence-based appropriateness criteria for decisions about imaging procedures, oversight of equipment to deliver reliably the minimum radiation required to attain clinical objectives, development of electronic lifetime records of imaging procedures for patients and their physicians, and commitment by medical training programs, professional societies, and radiation protection organizations to educate all stakeholders in reducing radiation from diagnostic procedures. PMID:22307864

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the uranium mill tailings site near Durango, Colorado

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1995-02-01

This risk assessment evaluates the possibility of health and environmental risks from contaminated ground water at the uranium mill tailings site near Durango, Colorado. The former uranium processing site`s contaminated soil and material were removed and placed at a disposal site located in Body Canyon, Colorado, during 1986--1991 by the US Departments of Energy`s Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. Currently, the UMTRA Project is evaluating the nature and extent of ground water contamination at the site. This risk assessment follows an approach similar to that used by the US Environmental Protection Agency. The first step is to determinemore » what site-related contaminants are found in ground water samples. The next step in the risk assessment is to determine how much of these contaminants people might ingest if they got their drinking water from a well on the site. In accordance with standard practice for this type of risk assessment, the highest contaminant concentrations from the most contaminated wells are used. The risk assessment then explains the possible health problems that could result from this amount of contamination.« less

An aging population and growing disease burden will require a large and specialized health care workforce by 2025.

PubMed

Dall, Timothy M; Gallo, Paul D; Chakrabarti, Ritasree; West, Terry; Semilla, April P; Storm, Michael V

2013-11-01

As the US population ages, the increasing prevalence of chronic disease and complex medical conditions will have profound implications for the future health care system. We projected future prevalence of selected diseases and health risk factors to model future demand for health care services for each person in a representative sample of the current and projected future population. Based on changing demographic characteristics and expanded medical coverage under the Affordable Care Act, we project that the demand for adult primary care services will grow by approximately 14 percent between 2013 and 2025. Vascular surgery has the highest projected demand growth (31 percent), followed by cardiology (20 percent) and neurological surgery, radiology, and general surgery (each 18 percent). Market indicators such as long wait times to obtain appointments suggest that the current supply of many specialists throughout the United States is inadequate to meet the current demand. Failure to train sufficient numbers and the correct mix of specialists could exacerbate already long wait times for appointments, reduce access to care for some of the nation's most vulnerable patients, and reduce patients' quality of life.

Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaption Measures for Egypt's Nile Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abutaleb, Khaled Abubakr Ali; Mohammed, Asmaa Hassan El-Sayed; Ahmed, Mahmoud H. Mohamed

2018-04-01

During the last few decades there has been growing concern about the impacts of climate change. A significant number of institutions, research centers, universities and governments have funded projects in addition to work done by independent scholars and assessors studying this phenomenon, in particular, to identify vulnerability, mitigation and adaptation against associated risks. Egypt is among the international community which took part in numerous studies, research activities, conferences, seminars and meetings attempting to address climate change and its associated risks. Egypt is particularly concerned with the threat to the Nile Delta as it is considered a low-lying land at high risk. The aim of this paper is to review current and previous projects, technical reports and pilot studies, concerning risk assessments, mitigation, and adaptation strategies for climate change in Egypt. This, in turn, will aid in decision making regarding future funding and establishing of research related to climate change in Egypt. This paper will also highlight the weaknesses and strengths of policymakers solely relying on one or more of these studies.

[Air contamination in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires: the current risk or future climate change, a false option].

PubMed

Abrutzky, Rosana; Dawidowski, Laura; Murgida, Ana; Natenzon, Claudia Eleonor

2014-09-01

Based on the theoretical framework of environmental risk, this article discusses the management of air quality in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires in relation to current and potential impacts of toxic gases and global climate change on the health of the population. Information on historical and current management of the air was linked to the results of the South American Emissions, Megacities and Climate research project to assess danger, exposure, vulnerability and uncertainty as the dimensions of risk. By contextualizing public policies developed in recent decades on this subject, it was possible to identify emerging configurations of risk and uncertainties as accelerators of social vulnerability. On the one hand, the fact that there is a positive correlation between mortality, changes in temperature and air pollution was confirmed. On the other hand, it became clear that there is a disconnect between air quality management and health care management, while limitations were found in the proposed mitigation measures relating to emissions of greenhouse gases produced by fuel, revealing uncertainties regarding their efficacy.

ESTIMATING RISK TO CALIFORNIA ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FROM PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sathaye, Jayant; Dale, Larry; Larsen, Peter

2011-06-22

This report outlines the results of a study of the impact of climate change on the energy infrastructure of California and the San Francisco Bay region, including impacts on power plant generation; transmission line and substation capacity during heat spells; wildfires near transmission lines; sea level encroachment upon power plants, substations, and natural gas facilities; and peak electrical demand. Some end-of-century impacts were projected:Expected warming will decrease gas-fired generator efficiency. The maximum statewide coincident loss is projected at 10.3 gigawatts (with current power plant infrastructure and population), an increase of 6.2 percent over current temperature-induced losses. By the end ofmore » the century, electricity demand for almost all summer days is expected to exceed the current ninetieth percentile per-capita peak load. As much as 21 percent growth is expected in ninetieth percentile peak demand (per-capita, exclusive of population growth). When generator losses are included in the demand, the ninetieth percentile peaks may increase up to 25 percent. As the climate warms, California's peak supply capacity will need to grow faster than the population.Substation capacity is projected to decrease an average of 2.7 percent. A 5C (9F) air temperature increase (the average increase predicted for hot days in August) will diminish the capacity of a fully-loaded transmission line by an average of 7.5 percent.The potential exposure of transmission lines to wildfire is expected to increase with time. We have identified some lines whose probability of exposure to fire are expected to increase by as much as 40 percent. Up to 25 coastal power plants and 86 substations are at risk of flooding (or partial flooding) due to sea level rise.« less

Methodology Development for Assessment of Spaceport Technology Returns and Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joglekar, Prafulla; Zapata, Edgar

2001-01-01

As part of Kennedy Space Center's (KSC's) challenge to open the space frontier, new spaceport technologies must be developed, matured and successfully transitioned to operational systems. R&D investment decisions can be considered from multiple perspectives. Near mid and far term technology horizons must be understood. Because a multitude of technology investment opportunities are available, we must identify choices that promise the greatest likelihood of significant lifecycle At the same time, the costs and risks of any choice must be well understood and balanced against its potential returns The problem is not one of simply rank- ordering projects in terms of their desirability. KSC wants to determine a portfolio of projects that simultaneously satisfies multiple goals, such as getting the biggest bang for the buck, supporting projects that may be too risky for private funding, staying within annual budget cycles without foregoing the requirements of a long term technology vision, and ensuring the development of a diversity of technologies that, support the variety of operational functions involved in space transportation. This work aims to assist in the development of in methods and techniques that support strategic technology investment decisions and ease the process of determining an optimal portfolio of spaceport R&D investments. Available literature on risks and returns to R&D is reviewed and most useful pieces are brought to the attention of the Spaceport Technology Development Office (STDO). KSC's current project management procedures are reviewed. It is found that the "one size fits all" nature of KSC's existing procedures and project selection criteria is not conducive to prudent decision-making. Directions for improving KSC's - procedures and criteria are outlined. With help of a contractor, STDO is currently developing a tool, named Change Management Analysis Tool (CMAT)/ Portfolio Analysis Tool (PAT), to assist KSC's R&D portfolio determination. A critical review of CMAT/PAT is undertaken. Directions for the improvement of this tool are provided. STDO and KSC intend to follow up on many, if not all, of the recommendations provided.

Internal NASA Study: NASAs Protoflight Research Initiative

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coan, Mary R.; Hirshorn, Steven R.; Moreland, Robert

2015-01-01

The NASA Protoflight Research Initiative is an internal NASA study conducted within the Office of the Chief Engineer to better understand the use of Protoflight within NASA. Extensive literature reviews and interviews with key NASA members with experience in both robotic and human spaceflight missions has resulted in three main conclusions and two observations. The first conclusion is that NASA's Protoflight method is not considered to be "prescriptive." The current policies and guidance allows each Program/Project to tailor the Protoflight approach to better meet their needs, goals and objectives. Second, Risk Management plays a key role in implementation of the Protoflight approach. Any deviations from full qualification will be based on the level of acceptable risk with guidance found in NPR 8705.4. Finally, over the past decade (2004 - 2014) only 6% of NASA's Protoflight missions and 6% of NASA's Full qualification missions experienced a publicly disclosed mission failure. In other words, the data indicates that the Protoflight approach, in and of it itself, does not increase the mission risk of in-flight failure. The first observation is that it would be beneficial to document the decision making process on the implementation and use of Protoflight. The second observation is that If a Project/Program chooses to use the Protoflight approach with relevant heritage, it is extremely important that the Program/Project Manager ensures that the current project's requirements falls within the heritage design, component, instrument and/or subsystem's requirements for both the planned and operational use, and that the documentation of the relevant heritage is comprehensive, sufficient and the decision well documented. To further benefit/inform this study, a recommendation to perform a deep dive into 30 missions with accessible data on their testing/verification methodology and decision process to research the differences between Protoflight and Full Qualification missions' Design Requirements and Verification & Validation (V&V) (without any impact or special request directly to the project).

Combination Immunotherapy for the Treatment of High-Risk HER2-Positive Breast Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-01

serving as the PI for the clinical trial Funding support N/A Name Holly Simmons, RN Project role Research Nurse Nearest person month work 12...Contribution to project Ms Simmons is serving as the lead research nurse for the trial. She is conducting all aspects of the study at MD Anderson and...serves as a resource for research nurses at other enrolling sites. Funding support The current award supports 8 calendar months of salary support. The

Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and prediabetes prevalence

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background People with diabetes can suffer from diverse complications that seriously erode quality of life. Diabetes, costing the United States more than $174 billion per year in 2007, is expected to take an increasingly large financial toll in subsequent years. Accurate projections of diabetes burden are essential to policymakers planning for future health care needs and costs. Methods Using data on prediabetes and diabetes prevalence in the United States, forecasted incidence, and current US Census projections of mortality and migration, the authors constructed a series of dynamic models employing systems of difference equations to project the future burden of diabetes among US adults. A three-state model partitions the US population into no diabetes, undiagnosed diabetes, and diagnosed diabetes. A four-state model divides the state of "no diabetes" into high-risk (prediabetes) and low-risk (normal glucose) states. A five-state model incorporates an intervention designed to prevent or delay diabetes in adults at high risk. Results The authors project that annual diagnosed diabetes incidence (new cases) will increase from about 8 cases per 1,000 in 2008 to about 15 in 2050. Assuming low incidence and relatively high diabetes mortality, total diabetes prevalence (diagnosed and undiagnosed cases) is projected to increase from 14% in 2010 to 21% of the US adult population by 2050. However, if recent increases in diabetes incidence continue and diabetes mortality is relatively low, prevalence will increase to 33% by 2050. A middle-ground scenario projects a prevalence of 25% to 28% by 2050. Intervention can reduce, but not eliminate, increases in diabetes prevalence. Conclusions These projected increases are largely attributable to the aging of the US population, increasing numbers of members of higher-risk minority groups in the population, and people with diabetes living longer. Effective strategies will need to be undertaken to moderate the impact of these factors on national diabetes burden. Our analysis suggests that widespread implementation of reasonably effective preventive interventions focused on high-risk subgroups of the population can considerably reduce, but not eliminate, future increases in diabetes prevalence. PMID:20969750

A Framework for Assessment of Aviation Safety Technology Portfolios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Sharon M.; Reveley, Mary S.

2014-01-01

The programs within NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) conduct research and development to improve the national air transportation system so that Americans can travel as safely as possible. NASA aviation safety systems analysis personnel support various levels of ARMD management in their fulfillment of system analysis and technology prioritization as defined in the agency's program and project requirements. This paper provides a framework for the assessment of aviation safety research and technology portfolios that includes metrics such as projected impact on current and future safety, technical development risk and implementation risk. The paper also contains methods for presenting portfolio analysis and aviation safety Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) output results to management using bubble charts and quantitative decision analysis techniques.

The GED4GEM project: development of a Global Exposure Database for the Global Earthquake Model initiative

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gamba, P.; Cavalca, D.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Huyck, C.; Crowley, H.

2012-01-01

In order to quantify earthquake risk of any selected region or a country of the world within the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) framework (www.globalquakemodel.org/), a systematic compilation of building inventory and population exposure is indispensable. Through the consortium of leading institutions and by engaging the domain-experts from multiple countries, the GED4GEM project has been working towards the development of a first comprehensive publicly available Global Exposure Database (GED). This geospatial exposure database will eventually facilitate global earthquake risk and loss estimation through GEM’s OpenQuake platform. This paper provides an overview of the GED concepts, aims, datasets, and inference methodology, as well as the current implementation scheme, status and way forward.

Research and Development on the Storage Ring Vacuum System for the APS Upgrade Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stillwell, B.; Brajuskovic, B.; Carter, J.

A number of research and development activities are underway at Argonne National Laboratory to build confidence in the designs for the storage ring vacuum system required for the Advanced Photon Source Up-grade project (APS-U) [1]. The predominant technical risks are: excessive residual gas pressures during operation; insufficient beam position monitor stability; excessive beam impedance; excessive heating by induced electrical surface currents; and insufficient operational reliability. Present efforts to mitigate these risks include: building and evaluating mockup assemblies; performing mechanical testing of chamber weld joints; developing computational tools; investigating design alternatives; and performing electrical bench measurements. Status of these activities andmore » some of what has been learned to date will be shared.« less

Towards a systems approach to risk considerations for concurrent design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meshkat, Leila; Oberto, Robert E.

2004-01-01

This paper describes the new process used by the Project Design Center at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory for the identification, assessment and communication of risk elements throughout the lifecycle of a mission design. This process includes a software tool, 'RAP' that collects and communicates risk information between the various designers and a 'risk expert' who mediates this process. The establishment of this process is an attempt towards the systematic consideration of risk in the design decision making process. Using this process, we are able to better keep track of the risks associated with the design decisions. Furthermore, it helps us develop better risk profiles for the studies under consideration. We aim to refine and expand the current process to enable more thorough risk analysis capabilities in the future.

Non-animal approaches for consumer safety risk assessments: Unilever's scientific research programme.

PubMed

Carmichael, Paul; Davies, Michael; Dent, Matt; Fentem, Julia; Fletcher, Samantha; Gilmour, Nicola; MacKay, Cameron; Maxwell, Gavin; Merolla, Leona; Pease, Camilla; Reynolds, Fiona; Westmoreland, Carl

2009-12-01

Non-animal based approaches to risk assessment are now routinely used for assuring consumer safety for some endpoints (such as skin irritation) following considerable investment in developing and applying new methods over the past 20 years. Unilever's research programme into non-animal approaches for safety assessment is currently focused on the application of new technologies to risk assessments in the areas of skin allergy, cancer and general toxicity (including inhalation toxicity). In all of these areas, a long-term investment is essential to increase the scientific understanding of the underlying biological and chemical processes that we believe will ultimately form a sound basis for novel risk assessment approaches. Our research programme in these priority areas consists of in-house research as well as Unilever-sponsored academic research, involvement with EU-funded projects (e.g. Sens-it-iv, carcinoGENOMICS), participation in cross-industry collaborative research (e.g. COLIPA, EPAA) and ongoing involvement with other scientific initiatives on non-animal approaches to risk assessment (e.g. UK NC3Rs, US 'Human Toxicology Project' consortium). 2009 FRAME.

Vulnerability of breeding waterbirds to climate change in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

PubMed

Steen, Valerie; Skagen, Susan K; Noon, Barry R

2014-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs). We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971-2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables. For each species, we predicted current distribution based on climate records for 1981-2000 and projected future distributions to climate scenarios for 2040-2049. Species were projected to, on average, lose almost half their current habitat (-46%). However, individual species projections varied widely, from +8% (Upland Sandpiper) to -100% (Wilson's Snipe). Variable importance ranks indicated that land cover (wetland and upland) variables were generally more important than climate variables in predicting species distributions. However, climate variables were relatively more important during a drought period. Projected distributions of species responses to climate change contracted within current areas of distribution rather than shifting. Given the large variation in species-level impacts, we suggest that climate change mitigation efforts focus on species projected to be the most vulnerable by enacting targeted wetland management, easement acquisition, and restoration efforts.

DOE-NE Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment: FY12 Plans Update

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sadasivan, Pratap

2012-06-21

This presentation provides background information on FY12 plans for the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment program. Program plans, organization, and individual project elements are described. Research objectives are: (1) Develop technologies and other solutions that can improve the reliability, sustain the safety, and extend the life of current reactors; (2) Develop improvements in the affordability of new reactors to enable nuclear energy; (3) Develop Sustainable Nuclear Fuel Cycles; and (4) Understand and minimize the risks of nuclear proliferation and terrorism - Goal is to enable the use of risk information to inform NE R&D programmore » planning.« less

Water Stress on U.S. Power Production at Decadal Time Horizons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganguli, P.; Kumar, D.; Yun, J.; Short, G.; Klausner, J.; Ganguly, A. R.

2014-12-01

Thermoelectric power production at risk, owing to current and projected water scarcity and rising stream temperatures, is assessed for the continental United States (US) at decadal scales. Regional water scarcity is driven by climate variability and change, as well as by multi-sector water demand. While a planning horizon of zero to about thirty years is occasionally prescribed by stakeholders, the challenges to risk assessment at these scales include the difficulty in delineating decadal climate trends from intrinsic natural or multiple model variability. Current generation global climate or earth system models are not credible at the spatial resolutions of power plants, especially for surface water quantity and stream temperatures, which further exacerbates the assessment challenge. Population changes, which are anyway difficult to project, cannot serve as adequate proxies for changes in the water demand across sectors. The hypothesis that robust assessments of power production at risks are possible, despite the uncertainties, has been examined as a proof of concept. An approach is presented for delineating water scarcity and temperature from climate models, observations and population storylines, as well as for assessing power production at risk by examining geospatial correlations of power plant locations within regions where the usable water supply for energy production happens to be scarcer and warmer. Acknowledgment: Funding provided by US DOE's ARPA-E through Award DE-AR0000374.

The Irma-sponge Program: Methodologies For Sustainable Flood Risk Management Along The Rhine and Meuse Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hooijer, A.; van Os, A. G.

Recent flood events and socio-economic developments have increased the awareness of the need for improved flood risk management along the Rhine and Meuse Rivers. In response to this, the IRMA-SPONGE program incorporated 13 research projects in which over 30 organisations from all 6 River Basin Countries co-operated. The pro- gram is financed partly by the European INTERREG Rhine-Meuse Activities (IRMA). The main aim of IRMA-SPONGE is defined as: "The development of methodologies and tools to assess the impact of flood risk reduction measures and of land-use and climate change scenarios. This to support the spatial planning process in establish- ing alternative strategies for an optimal realisation of the hydraulic, economical and ecological functions of the Rhine and Meuse River Basins." Further important objec- tives are to promote transboundary co-operation in flood risk management by both scientific and management organisations, and to promote public participation in flood management issues. The projects in the program are grouped in three clusters, looking at measures from different scientific angles. The results of the projects in each cluster have been evaluated to define recommendations for flood risk management; some of these outcomes call for a change to current practices, e.g.: 1. (Flood Risk and Hydrol- ogy cluster): hydrological changes due to climate change exceed those due to further land use change, and are significant enough to necessitate a change in flood risk man- agement strategies if the currently claimed protection levels are to be sustained. 2. (Flood Protection and Ecology cluster): to not only provide flood protection but also enhance the ecological quality of rivers and floodplains, new flood risk management concepts ought to integrate ecological knowledge from start to finish, with a clear perspective on the type of nature desired and the spatial and time scales considered. 3. (Flood Risk Management and Spatial Planning cluster): extreme floods can not be prevented by taking mainly upstream measures; significant and space-consuming lo- cal measures will therefore be needed in the lower Rhine and Meuse deltas. However, there is also a need for improved flood risk management upstream, which calls for better spatial planning procedures. More detailed information on the IRMA-SPONGE program can be found on our website: www.irma-sponge.org.

NEW MEDIA TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT TO ENHANCE AND IMPROVE COMMUNICATIONS AT USEPA'S NATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT RESEARCH LABORATORY

EPA Science Inventory

New media technology (NT) interactive applications are currently being developed in house at ORD/NRMRL to enhance and improve communication of NRMRL's 1) research projects, 2) workshops/conferences and 3) specialized training. NT is an exciting mix of cutting-edge information tec...

Heart Disease and Cancer Deaths - Trends and Projections in the United States, 1969-2020.

PubMed

Weir, Hannah K; Anderson, Robert N; Coleman King, Sallyann M; Soman, Ashwini; Thompson, Trevor D; Hong, Yuling; Moller, Bjorn; Leadbetter, Steven

2016-11-17

Heart disease and cancer are the first and second leading causes of death in the United States. Age-standardized death rates (risk) have declined since the 1960s for heart disease and for cancer since the 1990s, whereas the overall number of heart disease deaths declined and cancer deaths increased. We analyzed mortality data to evaluate and project the effect of risk reduction, population growth, and aging on the number of heart disease and cancer deaths to the year 2020. We used mortality data, population estimates, and population projections to estimate and predict heart disease and cancer deaths from 1969 through 2020 and to apportion changes in deaths resulting from population risk, growth, and aging. We predicted that from 1969 through 2020, the number of heart disease deaths would decrease 21.3% among men (-73.9% risk, 17.9% growth, 34.7% aging) and 13.4% among women (-73.3% risk, 17.1% growth, 42.8% aging) while the number of cancer deaths would increase 91.1% among men (-33.5% risk, 45.6% growth, 79.0% aging) and 101.1% among women (-23.8% risk, 48.8% growth, 76.0% aging). We predicted that cancer would become the leading cause of death around 2016, although sex-specific crossover years varied. Risk of death declined more steeply for heart disease than cancer, offset the increase in heart disease deaths, and partially offset the increase in cancer deaths resulting from demographic changes over the past 4 decades. If current trends continue, cancer will become the leading cause of death by 2020.

Mammography Screening 2.0 - How Can Risk-Adapted Screening be Implemented in Clinical Practice?: Results of a Focus Group Discussion with Experts in the RISIKOLOTSE.DE Project.

PubMed

Fürst, Nicole; Kiechle, Marion; Strahwald, Brigitte; Quante, Anne S

2018-05-01

The mammography screening programme has been the subject of criticism for some time. Invitation to take part is currently based only on the risk factors of age and female sex, whereby women with an above-average risk are screened too seldom and women with a low risk are possibly screened too often. In future, an individualised risk assessment could make a risk-adapted procedure possible in breast cancer screening. In the RISIKOLOTSE.DE project, schemes are devised to calculate the individual breast cancer risk and evaluate the results. The aim is to assist doctors and screening participants in participatory decision-making. To gauge the baseline situation in the target groups, qualitative and quantitative surveys were conducted. At the start of the project, a guideline-based focus group discussion was held with 15 doctors and representatives of the public health service. The transcript of this discussion was evaluated by means of a qualitative content analysis. The participants assessed the concept of risk-adapted screening positively overall. At the same time, the majority of them were of the opinion that the results of individualised risk calculation can be understood and evaluated adequately only by doctors. The great communication requirement and lack of remuneration were given as practical obstacles to implementation. The suggestions and new ideas from the focus group ranged from administrative and regulatory changes to new forms of counselling and adaptable practice aids. An important indicator for the RISIKOLOTSE.DE conception and for planning future surveys was that risk calculation for mammography screening 2.0 was regarded as a purely medical function and that the concept of participatory decision-making played hardly any part in the discussion.

Student projects in medicine: a lesson in science and ethics.

PubMed

Edwards, Sarah J L

2009-11-01

Regulation of biomedical research is the subject of considerable debate in the bioethics and health policy worlds. The ethics and governance of medical student projects is becoming an increasingly important topic in its own right, especially in the U.K., where there are periodic calls to change it. My main claim is that there seems to be no good reason for treating student projects differently from projects led by qualified and more experienced scientists and hence no good grounds for changing the current system of ethics review. I first suggest that the educational objectives cannot be met without laying down standards of good science, whatever they may be. Weak science is unnecessary for educational purposes, and it is, in any case, unlikely to produce good researchers in the future. Furthermore, it is curious to want to change the system of ethics review specifically for students when it is the science that is at stake, and when the science now falls largely outside the ethics remit. I further show that ethics review is nevertheless important since students carry a new potential conflict of interests that warrants independent oversight which supervisory support does not offer. This potential conflict may become more morally troublesome the greater the risks to the subjects of the research, and students may impose greater risks on their subjects (relative to professional researchers) by virtue of being inexperienced, whatever the nature of the project. Pragmatic concerns may finally be allayed by organizing the current system more efficiently at critical times of the university calendar.

Risk-based water resources planning: Incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borgomeo, Edoardo; Hall, Jim W.; Fung, Fai; Watts, Glenn; Colquhoun, Keith; Lambert, Chris

2014-08-01

We present a risk-based approach for incorporating nonstationary probabilistic climate projections into long-term water resources planning. The proposed methodology uses nonstationary synthetic time series of future climates obtained via a stochastic weather generator based on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) to construct a probability distribution of the frequency of water shortages in the future. The UKCP09 projections extend well beyond the range of current hydrological variability, providing the basis for testing the robustness of water resources management plans to future climate-related uncertainties. The nonstationary nature of the projections combined with the stochastic simulation approach allows for extensive sampling of climatic variability conditioned on climate model outputs. The probability of exceeding planned frequencies of water shortages of varying severity (defined as Levels of Service for the water supply utility company) is used as a risk metric for water resources planning. Different sources of uncertainty, including demand-side uncertainties, are considered simultaneously and their impact on the risk metric is evaluated. Supply-side and demand-side management strategies can be compared based on how cost-effective they are at reducing risks to acceptable levels. A case study based on a water supply system in London (UK) is presented to illustrate the methodology. Results indicate an increase in the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service across the planning horizon. Under a 1% per annum population growth scenario, the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service is as high as 0.5 by 2040. The case study also illustrates how a combination of supply and demand management options may be required to reduce the risk of water shortages.

The Pittsburgh Cervical Cancer Screening Model: a risk assessment tool.

PubMed

Austin, R Marshall; Onisko, Agnieszka; Druzdzel, Marek J

2010-05-01

Evaluation of cervical cancer screening has grown increasingly complex with the introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and newer screening technologies approved by the US Food and Drug Administration. To create a unique Pittsburgh Cervical Cancer Screening Model (PCCSM) that quantifies risk for histopathologic cervical precancer (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia [CIN] 2, CIN3, and adenocarcinoma in situ) and cervical cancer in an environment predominantly using newer screening technologies. The PCCSM is a dynamic Bayesian network consisting of 19 variables available in the laboratory information system, including patient history data (most recent HPV vaccination data), Papanicolaou test results, high-risk HPV results, procedure data, and histopathologic results. The model's graphic structure was based on the published literature. Results from 375 441 patient records from 2005 through 2008 were used to build and train the model. Additional data from 45 930 patients were used to test the model. The PCCSM compares risk quantitatively over time for histopathologically verifiable CIN2, CIN3, adenocarcinoma in situ, and cervical cancer in screened patients for each current cytology result category and for each HPV result. For each current cytology result, HPV test results affect risk; however, the degree of cytologic abnormality remains the largest positive predictor of risk. Prior history also alters the CIN2, CIN3, adenocarcinoma in situ, and cervical cancer risk for patients with common current cytology and HPV test results. The PCCSM can also generate negative risk projections, estimating the likelihood of the absence of histopathologic CIN2, CIN3, adenocarcinoma in situ, and cervical cancer in screened patients. The PCCSM is a dynamic Bayesian network that computes quantitative cervical disease risk estimates for patients undergoing cervical screening. Continuously updatable with current system data, the PCCSM provides a new tool to monitor cervical disease risk in the evolving postvaccination era.

Robotic and artificial intelligence for keyhole neurosurgery: the ROBOCAST project, a multi-modal autonomous path planner.

PubMed

De Momi, E; Ferrigno, G

2010-01-01

The robot and sensors integration for computer-assisted surgery and therapy (ROBOCAST) project (FP7-ICT-2007-215190) is co-funded by the European Union within the Seventh Framework Programme in the field of information and communication technologies. The ROBOCAST project focuses on robot- and artificial-intelligence-assisted keyhole neurosurgery (tumour biopsy and local drug delivery along straight or turning paths). The goal of this project is to assist surgeons with a robotic system controlled by an intelligent high-level controller (HLC) able to gather and integrate information from the surgeon, from diagnostic images, and from an array of on-field sensors. The HLC integrates pre-operative and intra-operative diagnostics data and measurements, intelligence augmentation, multiple-robot dexterity, and multiple sensory inputs in a closed-loop cooperating scheme including a smart interface for improved haptic immersion and integration. This paper, after the overall architecture description, focuses on the intelligent trajectory planner based on risk estimation and human criticism. The current status of development is reported, and first tests on the planner are shown by using a real image stack and risk descriptor phantom. The advantages of using a fuzzy risk description are given by the possibility of upgrading the knowledge on-field without the intervention of a knowledge engineer.

Flood risk and insurance loss potential in the Thames Gateway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eldridge, J.; Horn, D.

2009-04-01

The Thames Gateway, currently Europe's largest regeneration project, is an area of redevelopment located in the South East of England, with Government plans to create up to 160,000 new homes and 180,000 new jobs by 2016. Although the new development is intended to contribute £12bn annually to the economy, the potential flood risk is high, with much of the area situated on Thames tidal floodplain and vulnerable to both storm surges and peak river flows. This poses significant hazard to those inhabiting the area and has raised concern amongst the UK insurance industry, who would be liable for significant financial claims if a large flood event were to occur, particularly with respect to the number of new homes and businesses being built in flood risk areas. Flood risk and the potential damage to both lives and assets in vulnerable areas have gained substantial recognition, in light of recent flooding events, from both governmental agencies and in the public's awareness of flood hazard. This has resulted in a change in UK policy with planning policy for flood risk (PPS25, Planning Policy Statement 25) adopting a more strategic approach to development, as well as a new Flooding and Water Bill which is due for consultation in 2009. The Government and the Association of British Insurers, who represent the UK insurance industry, have also recently changed their Statement of Principles which guides provision of flood insurance in the future. This PhD research project aims to quantify flood risk in the Thames Gateway area with a view to evaluating the insurance loss potential under different insurance and planning scenarios. Using current sources of inundation extent, and incorporating varying insurance penetration rates and degrees of adoption of planning policy and guidance, it focuses on estimating flood risk under these different scenarios. This presentation introduces the development of the project and the theory and methodology which will be used to address the research problem, and presents the initial findings, including an overview of the major developments going ahead in the area and an indication of areas of high asset value and potential for inundation based on topography and standard of protection of defences.

Developing risk-based priorities for reducing air pollution in urban settings in Ukraine.

PubMed

Brody, Michael; Caldwell, Jane; Golub, Alexander

2007-02-01

Ukraine, when part of the former Soviet Union, was responsible for about 25% of its overall industrial production. This aging industrial infrastructure continues to emit enormous volumes of air and water pollution and wastes. The National Report on the State of Environment in Ukraine 1999 (Ukraine Ministry of Environmental Protection [MEP], 2000) shows significant air pollution. There are numerous emissions that have been associated with developmental effects, chronic long-term health effects, and cancer. Ukraine also has been identified as a major source of transboundary air pollution for the eastern Mediterranean region. Ukraine's Environment Ministry is not currently able to strategically target high-priority emissions and lacks the resources to address all these problems. For these reasons, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency set up a partnership with Ukraine's Ministry of Environmental Protection to strengthen its capacity to set environmental priorities through the use of comparative environmental risk assessment and economic analysis--the Capacity Building Project. The project is also addressing improvements in the efficiency and effectiveness of the use of its National Environmental Protection Fund. The project consists of a series of workshops with Ukrainian MEP officials in comparative risk assessment of air pollutant emissions in several heavily industrialized oblasts; cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis; and environmental finance. Pilot risk assessment analyses have been completed. At the end of the Capacity Building Project it is expected that the use of the National Environmental Protection fund and the regional level oblast environmental protection funds will begin to target and identify the highest health and environmental risk emissions.

Contesting lifestyle risk and gendering coronary candidacy: lay epidemiology of heart disease in Finland in the 1970s.

PubMed

Jauho, Mikko

2017-09-01

This study addresses two issues currently under critical discussion in the epidemiology of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), the relative neglect of women and the individualised nature of key risk factors. It focuses on the North Karelia project (NKP), a community programme aimed at coronary heart disease (CHD) prevention in a predominantly rural Finnish region in the early 1970s, that is, during a period when the epidemiological understanding of CVD still was relatively new and actively promoted. Adopting the notions of lay epidemiology and coronary candidacy, culturally mediated explanatory models lay people use to assess who is likely to develop heart disease and why, the study shows that locals targeted by the project critically engaged with both of these bias. Based on the rich materials resulting from project activities the study shows, first, how many locals subsumed the individualised and lifestyle-based approach to CHD prevention promoted by NKP under a more general framework emphasising the health effects of ongoing structural changes in the area, and second, how women constructed themselves as viable coronary candidates. The case supports the position in the current discussions on lay expertise that wants to integrate lay experiences more firmly into epidemiological studies and public health. © 2017 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness.

Development of Graphical User Interface for ARRBOD (Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose Projection)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee; Hu, Shaowen; Nounu, Hatem N.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2010-01-01

The space radiation environment, particularly solar particle events (SPEs), poses the risk of acute radiation sickness (ARS) to humans; and organ doses from SPE exposure may reach critical levels during extra vehicular activities (EVAs) or within lightly shielded spacecraft. NASA has developed an organ dose projection model using the BRYNTRN with SUMDOSE computer codes, and a probabilistic model of Acute Radiation Risk (ARR). The codes BRYNTRN and SUMDOSE, written in FORTRAN, are a Baryon transport code and an output data processing code, respectively. The ARR code is written in C. The risk projection models of organ doses and ARR take the output from BRYNTRN as an input to their calculations. BRYNTRN code operation requires extensive input preparation. With a graphical user interface (GUI) to handle input and output for BRYNTRN, the response models can be connected easily and correctly to BRYNTRN in friendly way. A GUI for the Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose (ARRBOD) projection code provides seamless integration of input and output manipulations, which are required for operations of the ARRBOD modules: BRYNTRN, SUMDOSE, and the ARR probabilistic response model. The ARRBOD GUI is intended for mission planners, radiation shield designers, space operations in the mission operations directorate (MOD), and space biophysics researchers. The ARRBOD GUI will serve as a proof-of-concept example for future integration of other human space applications risk projection models. The current version of the ARRBOD GUI is a new self-contained product and will have follow-on versions, as options are added: 1) human geometries of MAX/FAX in addition to CAM/CAF; 2) shielding distributions for spacecraft, Mars surface and atmosphere; 3) various space environmental and biophysical models; and 4) other response models to be connected to the BRYNTRN. The major components of the overall system, the subsystem interconnections, and external interfaces are described in this report; and the ARRBOD GUI product is explained step by step in order to serve as a tutorial.

Multi-level, Multi-stage and Stochastic Optimization Models for Energy Conservation in Buildings for Federal, State and Local Agencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Champion, Billy Ray

Energy Conservation Measure (ECM) project selection is made difficult given real-world constraints, limited resources to implement savings retrofits, various suppliers in the market and project financing alternatives. Many of these energy efficient retrofit projects should be viewed as a series of investments with annual returns for these traditionally risk-averse agencies. Given a list of ECMs available, federal, state and local agencies must determine how to implement projects at lowest costs. The most common methods of implementation planning are suboptimal relative to cost. Federal, state and local agencies can obtain greater returns on their energy conservation investment over traditional methods, regardless of the implementing organization. This dissertation outlines several approaches to improve the traditional energy conservations models. . Any public buildings in regions with similar energy conservation goals in the United States or internationally can also benefit greatly from this research. Additionally, many private owners of buildings are under mandates to conserve energy e.g., Local Law 85 of the New York City Energy Conservation Code requires any building, public or private, to meet the most current energy code for any alteration or renovation. Thus, both public and private stakeholders can benefit from this research. . The research in this dissertation advances and presents models that decision-makers can use to optimize the selection of ECM projects with respect to the total cost of implementation. A practical application of a two-level mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) improves the current best practice for agencies concerned with making the most cost-effective selection leveraging energy services companies or utilities. The two-level model maximizes savings to the agency and profit to the energy services companies (Chapter 2). An additional model presented leverages a single congressional appropriation to implement ECM projects (Chapter 3). Returns from implemented ECM projects are used to fund additional ECM projects. In these cases, fluctuations in energy costs and uncertainty in the estimated savings severely influence ECM project selection and the amount of the appropriation requested. A risk aversion method proposed imposes a minimum on the number of "of projects completed in each stage. A comparative method using Conditional Value at Risk is analyzed. Time consistency was addressed in this chapter. This work demonstrates how a risk-based, stochastic, multi-stage model with binary decision variables at each stage provides a much more accurate estimate for planning than the agency's traditional approach and deterministic models. Finally, in Chapter 4, a rolling-horizon model allows for subadditivity and superadditivity of the energy savings to simulate interactive effects between ECM projects. The approach makes use of inequalities (McCormick, 1976) to re-express constraints that involve the product of binary variables with an exact linearization (related to the convex hull of those constraints). This model additionally shows the benefits of learning between stages while remaining consistent with the single congressional appropriations framework.

Case Management to Reduce Cardiovascular Disease Risk in American Indians and Alaska Natives With Diabetes: Results From the Special Diabetes Program for Indians Healthy Heart Demonstration Project

PubMed Central

Jiang, Luohua; Manson, Spero M.; Beals, Janette; Henderson, William; Pratte, Katherine; Acton, Kelly J.; Roubideaux, Yvette

2014-01-01

Objectives. We evaluated cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in American Indians/Alaska Natives (AI/ANs) with diabetes in the Special Diabetes Program for Indians Healthy Heart (SDPI-HH) Demonstration Project. Methods. Multidisciplinary teams implemented an intensive case management intervention among 30 health care programs serving 138 tribes. The project recruited 3373 participants, with and without current CVD, between 2006 and 2009. We examined data collected at baseline and 1 year later to determine whether improvements occurred in CVD risk factors and in Framingham coronary heart disease (CHD) risk scores, aspirin use, and smoking status. Results. A1c levels decreased an average of 0.2% (P < .001). Systolic and diastolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, and triglyceride levels decreased, with the largest significant reduction in LDL cholesterol (∆ = −5.29 mg/dL; P < .001). Average Framingham CHD risk scores also decreased significantly. Aspirin therapy increased significantly, and smoking decreased. Participants with more case management visits had significantly greater reductions in LDL cholesterol and A1c values. Conclusions. SDPI-HH successfully translated an intensive case management intervention. Creative retention strategies and an improved understanding of organizational challenges are needed for future Indian health translational efforts. PMID:25211728

A new Geo-Information Architecture for Risk Management in the Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baruffini, Mi.; Thuering, M.

2009-04-01

During the last decades land-use increased significantly in the Swiss (and European) mountain regions. Due to the scarceness of areas suitable for development, anthropic activities were extended into areas prone to natural hazards such as avalanches, debris flows and rockfalls (Smith 2001). Furthermore, the transalpine transport system necessity to develop effective links in an important area collides with the need to ensure the safety of travelers and the health of the population. Consequently, an increase in losses due to hazards can be observed. To mitigate these associated losses, both traditional protective measures and land-use planning policies are to be developed and implemented to optimize future investments. Efficient protection alternatives can be obtained considering the concept of integral risk management. Risk analysis, as the central part of risk management, has become gradually a generally accepted approach for the assessment of current and future scenarios (Loat & Zimmermann 2004). The procedure aims at risk reduction which can be reached by conventional mitigation on one hand and the implementation of land-use planning on the other hand: a combination of active and passive mitigation measures is applied to prevent damage to buildings, people and infrastructures. As part of the Swiss National Science Foundation Project 54 "Evaluation of the optimal resilience for vulnerable infrastructure networks - An interdisciplinary pilot study on the transalpine transportation corridors" we study the vulnerability of infrastructures due to natural hazards. The project aims to study various natural hazards (and later, even man-made) and to obtain an evaluation of the resilience according to an interdisciplinary approach, considering the possible damage by means of risk criteria and pointing out the feasibility of conceivable measures to reduce potential damage. The project consists of a geoscientific part and an application. The fist part consists in studying the dangers (natural) and related risks in terms of infrastructure vulnerability. The application considers different types of danger (logically intersected with the transport infrastructure) and compares them with fixed values to obtain a so-called deficit. As framework we adopt The Swiss system for risk analysis of gravitational natural hazards (BUWAL 1999). In this way the project develops a methodology that makes possible a risk analysis aiming to optimize the infrastructure vulnerability and therefore allows to obtain a model designed to optimize the functionality of the network infrastructure. A simulation environment, RiskBox, is developed within the open-source GIS environment GRASS (Geographic Resources Analysis Support System) and a database (PostgreSQL) in order to manage a infrastructure data catalog. The targeted simulation environment includes the elements that identify the consecutive steps of risk analysis: hazard - vulnerability - risk. The initial results of the experimental case study show how useful a GIS-based system, which identify the risk of any single vulnerable element in the corridor and to assess the risk to the global system on the basis of priorities of the actors involved, can be for effective and efficient disaster response management, as explained in (ARMONIA Project 2007). In our work we wanted to highlight the complexity of the risk analysis methodology, difficulty that is amplified by many peculiarities in the mountain areas. In particular, the illustrative performed process can give an overview of the interests and the need to act to reduce vulnerability and the hazardous nature of the Gotthard corridor. We present the concept and current state of development of our project and our application to the testbed, the Alps-crossing corridor of St. Gotthard. REFERENCES ARMONIA Project 2007: Land use plans in Risky areas fro Unwise to Wise Practices - Materials 2nd conference. Politecnico di Milano. BUWAL 1999: Risikoanalyse bei gravitativen Naturgefahren - Methode, Fallbeispiele und Daten (Risk analyses for gravitational natural hazards). Bundesamt für Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft (BUWAL). Umwelt-Materialen Nr. 107, 1-244. Loat, R. & Zimmermann, M. 2004 : La gestion des risques en Suisse (Risk Management in Switzerland). In: Veyret, Y., Garry, G., Meschinet de Richemont, N. & Armand Colin (eds) 2002: Colloque Arche de la Défense 22-24 octobre 2002, dans Risques naturels et aménagement en Europe, 108-120. Smith, K. 2001: Environmental hazards. Assessing the risk and reducing disaster. Third edition. London

Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose Projection Graphical User Interface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Hu, Shaowen; Nounu, Hateni N.; Kim, Myung-Hee

2011-01-01

The integration of human space applications risk projection models of organ dose and acute radiation risk has been a key problem. NASA has developed an organ dose projection model using the BRYNTRN with SUM DOSE computer codes, and a probabilistic model of Acute Radiation Risk (ARR). The codes BRYNTRN and SUM DOSE are a Baryon transport code and an output data processing code, respectively. The risk projection models of organ doses and ARR take the output from BRYNTRN as an input to their calculations. With a graphical user interface (GUI) to handle input and output for BRYNTRN, the response models can be connected easily and correctly to BRYNTRN. A GUI for the ARR and BRYNTRN Organ Dose (ARRBOD) projection code provides seamless integration of input and output manipulations, which are required for operations of the ARRBOD modules. The ARRBOD GUI is intended for mission planners, radiation shield designers, space operations in the mission operations directorate (MOD), and space biophysics researchers. BRYNTRN code operation requires extensive input preparation. Only a graphical user interface (GUI) can handle input and output for BRYNTRN to the response models easily and correctly. The purpose of the GUI development for ARRBOD is to provide seamless integration of input and output manipulations for the operations of projection modules (BRYNTRN, SLMDOSE, and the ARR probabilistic response model) in assessing the acute risk and the organ doses of significant Solar Particle Events (SPEs). The assessment of astronauts radiation risk from SPE is in support of mission design and operational planning to manage radiation risks in future space missions. The ARRBOD GUI can identify the proper shielding solutions using the gender-specific organ dose assessments in order to avoid ARR symptoms, and to stay within the current NASA short-term dose limits. The quantified evaluation of ARR severities based on any given shielding configuration and a specified EVA or other mission scenario can be made to guide alternative solutions for attaining determined objectives set by mission planners. The ARRBOD GUI estimates the whole-body effective dose, organ doses, and acute radiation sickness symptoms for astronauts, by which operational strategies and capabilities can be made for the protection of astronauts from SPEs in the planning of future lunar surface scenarios, exploration of near-Earth objects, and missions to Mars.

Country-level assessment of future risk of water scarcity in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrote, Luis; Iglesias, Ana; Granados, Alfredo

2018-06-01

A methodology for regional assessment of current and future water availability in Europe is presented in this study. The methodology is based on a proposed indicator of risk of water scarcity based on the projections of runoff and water availability for European countries. The risk of water scarcity is the combined result of hydrological processes, which determine streamflow in natural conditions, and human intervention, which determines water management using the available hydraulic infrastructure and establishes water supply conditions through operating rules. Model results show that changes in runoff and availability obtained for individual GCM projections can be large and even contradictory. These heterogeneous results are summarized in the water scarcity risk index, a global value that accounts for the results obtained with the ensemble of model results and emission scenarios. The countries at larger risk are (in this order) Spain, Portugal, Macedonia, Greece, Bulgaria, Albania, France and Italy. They are mostly Mediterranean countries already exposed to significant water scarcity problems. There are countries, like Slovakia, Ireland, Belgium, Luxembourg, Croatia and Romania, with mild risk. Northern Arctic countries, like Sweden, Finland, Norway and Russia, show a robust however mild increase in water availability.

Continuous Risk Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sabelhaus, Phil

2002-01-01

Risk identification is an ongoing activity that takes place during the routine project work flow. Project activities such as programmatic and technical meetings, telecons, reviews, and other forms of communication often bring to light project risks. When this occurs, we record and analyze the risk on a Risk Information Sheet. This process helps the project team identify and cope with project risks throughout the life of the project.

NASA Human Research Program Space Radiation Program Element

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chappell, Lori; Huff, Janice; Patel, Janapriya; Wang, Minli; Hu, Shaowwen; Kidane, Yared; Myung-Hee, Kim; Li, Yongfeng; Nounu, Hatem; Plante, Ianik;

Propulsion Risk Reduction Activities for Non-Toxic Cryogenic Propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Timothy D.; Klem, Mark D.; Fisher, Kenneth

2010-01-01

The Propulsion and Cryogenics Advanced Development (PCAD) Project s primary objective is to develop propulsion system technologies for non-toxic or "green" propellants. The PCAD project focuses on the development of non-toxic propulsion technologies needed to provide necessary data and relevant experience to support informed decisions on implementation of non-toxic propellants for space missions. Implementation of non-toxic propellants in high performance propulsion systems offers NASA an opportunity to consider other options than current hypergolic propellants. The PCAD Project is emphasizing technology efforts in reaction control system (RCS) thruster designs, ascent main engines (AME), and descent main engines (DME). PCAD has a series of tasks and contracts to conduct risk reduction and/or retirement activities to demonstrate that non-toxic cryogenic propellants can be a feasible option for space missions. Work has focused on 1) reducing the risk of liquid oxygen/liquid methane ignition, demonstrating the key enabling technologies, and validating performance levels for reaction control engines for use on descent and ascent stages; 2) demonstrating the key enabling technologies and validating performance levels for liquid oxygen/liquid methane ascent engines; and 3) demonstrating the key enabling technologies and validating performance levels for deep throttling liquid oxygen/liquid hydrogen descent engines. The progress of these risk reduction and/or retirement activities will be presented.

Propulsion Risk Reduction Activities for Nontoxic Cryogenic Propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Timothy D.; Klem, Mark D.; Fisher, Kenneth L.

2010-01-01

The Propulsion and Cryogenics Advanced Development (PCAD) Project s primary objective is to develop propulsion system technologies for nontoxic or "green" propellants. The PCAD project focuses on the development of nontoxic propulsion technologies needed to provide necessary data and relevant experience to support informed decisions on implementation of nontoxic propellants for space missions. Implementation of nontoxic propellants in high performance propulsion systems offers NASA an opportunity to consider other options than current hypergolic propellants. The PCAD Project is emphasizing technology efforts in reaction control system (RCS) thruster designs, ascent main engines (AME), and descent main engines (DME). PCAD has a series of tasks and contracts to conduct risk reduction and/or retirement activities to demonstrate that nontoxic cryogenic propellants can be a feasible option for space missions. Work has focused on 1) reducing the risk of liquid oxygen/liquid methane ignition, demonstrating the key enabling technologies, and validating performance levels for reaction control engines for use on descent and ascent stages; 2) demonstrating the key enabling technologies and validating performance levels for liquid oxygen/liquid methane ascent engines; and 3) demonstrating the key enabling technologies and validating performance levels for deep throttling liquid oxygen/liquid hydrogen descent engines. The progress of these risk reduction and/or retirement activities will be presented.

How Do Land-Use and Climate Change Affect Watershed ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

With the growing emphasis on biofuel crops and potential impacts of climate variability and change, there is a need to quantify their effects on hydrological processes for developing watershed management plans. Environmental consequences are currently estimated by utilizing computer models such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate watershed hydrology under projected climate and land-use scenarios to assess the effect on water quantity and/or quality. Such studies have largely been deterministic in nature, with the focus being on whether hydrologic variables such as runoff, sediment and/or nutrient loads increase or decrease from the baseline case under projected scenarios. However, studying how these changes would affect watershed health in a risk-based framework has not been attempted. In this study, impacts of several projected land-use and climate change scenarios on the health of the Wildcat Creek watershed in Indiana have been assessed through three risk indicators, namely reliability-resilience-vulnerability (R-R-V). Results indicate that cultivation of biofuel crops such as Miscanthus and switchgrass has the potential to improve risk indicator values with respect to sediment, total N and total P. Climate change scenarios that involved rising precipitation levels were found to negatively impact watershed health indicators. Trends of water quality constituents under risk-based watershed health assessment revealed nuances not readily a

Beyond the Floodplain: Drivers of Flood Risk in Coastal Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, B.; McPhearson, T.; Rosi, E. J.

2017-12-01

While the catastrophic impacts of Hurricane Katrina increased awareness of coastal flood risk, conventional approaches to flood risk assessment do not adequately represent the drivers of flood risk in the unique, highly engineered landscape of dense cities. We review the recent (1996-2016) history of flooding events and current regional climate change projection for 4 diverse coastal cities in the United States: San Juan, Miami, Baltimore and New York. Our review suggests that while all 4 of these cities face increased risk from direct coastal flooding with climate change, pluvial flooding will be an additional, important driver of risk that is currently poorly quantified. Unlike other types of flooding, pluvial flood risk is not limited to a contiguous riverine or coastal floodplain, but is instead driven by interactions between spatially variable geophysical drivers (intense rainfall, shallow groundwater, and influent tidal water), social drivers (patterns of land use) and technical drivers (urban stormwater and coastal infrastructure). We discuss approaches for quantitative assessment of pluvial flood risk, the challenges presented by the lack of data on geophysical flooding drivers in dense cities, and opportunities for integrated research to provide the scientific information needed by practitioners.

Probabilistic TSUnami Hazard MAPS for the NEAM Region: The TSUMAPS-NEAM Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basili, R.; Babeyko, A. Y.; Baptista, M. A.; Ben Abdallah, S.; Canals, M.; El Mouraouah, A.; Harbitz, C. B.; Ibenbrahim, A.; Lastras, G.; Lorito, S.; Løvholt, F.; Matias, L. M.; Omira, R.; Papadopoulos, G. A.; Pekcan, O.; Nmiri, A.; Selva, J.; Yalciner, A. C.

2016-12-01

As global awareness of tsunami hazard and risk grows, the North-East Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected Seas (NEAM) region still lacks a thorough probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment. The TSUMAPS-NEAM project aims to fill this gap in the NEAM region by 1) producing the first region-wide long-term homogenous Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) from earthquake sources, and by 2) triggering a common tsunami risk management strategy. The specific objectives of the project are tackled by the following four consecutive actions: 1) Conduct a state-of-the-art, standardized, and updatable PTHA with full uncertainty treatment; 2) Review the entire process with international experts; 3) Produce the PTHA database, with documentation of the entire hazard assessment process; and 4) Publicize the results through an awareness raising and education phase, and a capacity building phase. This presentation will illustrate the project layout, summarize its current status of advancement and prospective results, and outline its connections with similar initiatives in the international context. The TSUMAPS-NEAM Project (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/) is co-financed by the European Union Civil Protection Mechanism, Agreement Number: ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26.

Probabilistic TSUnami Hazard MAPS for the NEAM Region: The TSUMAPS-NEAM Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basili, Roberto; Babeyko, Andrey Y.; Hoechner, Andreas; Baptista, Maria Ana; Ben Abdallah, Samir; Canals, Miquel; El Mouraouah, Azelarab; Bonnevie Harbitz, Carl; Ibenbrahim, Aomar; Lastras, Galderic; Lorito, Stefano; Løvholt, Finn; Matias, Luis Manuel; Omira, Rachid; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Pekcan, Onur; Nmiri, Abdelwaheb; Selva, Jacopo; Yalciner, Ahmet C.; Thio, Hong K.

2017-04-01

As global awareness of tsunami hazard and risk grows, the North-East Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected Seas (NEAM) region still lacks a thorough probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment. The TSUMAPS-NEAM project aims to fill this gap in the NEAM region by 1) producing the first region-wide long-term homogenous Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) from earthquake sources, and by 2) triggering a common tsunami risk management strategy. The specific objectives of the project are tackled by the following four consecutive actions: 1) Conduct a state-of-the-art, standardized, and updatable PTHA with full uncertainty treatment; 2) Review the entire process with international experts; 3) Produce the PTHA database, with documentation of the entire hazard assessment process; and 4) Publicize the results through an awareness raising and education phase, and a capacity building phase. This presentation will illustrate the project layout, summarize its current status of advancement including the firs preliminary release of the assessment, and outline its connections with similar initiatives in the international context. The TSUMAPS-NEAM Project (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/) is co-financed by the European Union Civil Protection Mechanism, Agreement Number: ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26.

Induced seismicity and carbon storage: Risk assessment and mitigation strategies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

White, Joshua A.; Foxall, William; Bachmann, Corinne

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is widely recognized as an important strategy to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions. Like all technologies, however, sequestration projects create a number of potential environmental and safety hazards that must be addressed. These include earthquakes—from microseismicity to large, damaging events—that can be triggered by altering pore-pressure conditions in the subsurface. To date, measured seismicity due to CO 2 injection has been limited to a few modest events, but the hazard exists and must be considered. There are important similarities between CO 2 injection and fluid injection from other applications that have induced significant events—e.g.more » geothermal systems, waste-fluid injection, hydrocarbon extraction, and others. There are also important distinctions among these technologies that should be considered in a discussion of seismic hazard. This report focuses on strategies for assessing and mitigating risk during each phase of a CO 2 storage project. Four key risks related to fault reactivation and induced seismicity were considered. Induced slip on faults could potentially lead to: (1) infrastructure damage, (2) a public nuisance, (3) brine-contaminated drinking water, and (4) CO 2-contaminated drinking water. These scenarios lead to different types of damage—to property, to drinking water quality, or to the public welfare. Given these four risks, this report focuses on strategies for assessing (and altering) their likelihoods of occurrence and the damage that may result. This report begins with an overview of the basic physical mechanisms behind induced seismicity. This science basis—and its gaps—is crucial because it forms the foundation for risk assessment and mitigation. Available techniques for characterizing and monitoring seismic behavior are also described. Again, this technical basis—and its limitations—must be factored into the risk assessment and mitigation approach. A phased approach to risk management is then introduced. The basic goal of the phased approach is to constantly adapt site operations to current conditions and available characterization data. The remainder of the report then focuses in detail on different components of the monitoring, risk assessment, and mitigation strategies. Issues in current seismic risk assessment methods that must be modified to address induce seismicity are highlighted. The report then concludes with several specific recommendations for operators and regulatory authorities to consider when selecting, permitting, and operating a storage project.« less

GAR Global Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

2015-04-01

Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

Decision analysis and drug development portfolio management: uncovering the real options value of your projects.

PubMed

Rosati, Nicoletta

2002-04-01

Project selection and portfolio management are particularly challenging in the pharmaceutical industry due to the high risk - high stake nature of the drug development process. In the recent years, scholars and industry experts have agreed that traditional Net-Present-Value evaluation of the projects fails to capture the value of managerial flexibility, and encouraged adopting a real options approach to recover the missed value. In this paper, we take a closer look at the drug development process and at the indices currently used to rank projects. We discuss the economic value of information and of real options arising in drug development and present decision analysis as an ideal framework for the implementation of real options valuation.

Developing a Research Strategy for Suicide Prevention in the Department of Defense: Status of Current Research, Prioritizing Areas of Need, and Recommendations for Moving Forward

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

Suicide Prevention Ursula S . Whiteside, Ph.D. Group Health Cooperative Central Hospital Civilians Population-based risk reduction/resilience...Use and Suicidality: Comparative Safety in Children and Adults Sebastian Schneeweiss, M.D. Brigham and Women’s Hospital Civilians Risk and...Recommendations for Moving Forward 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR( S ) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK

Software engineering processes for Class D missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Killough, Ronnie; Rose, Debi

2013-09-01

Software engineering processes are often seen as anathemas; thoughts of CMMI key process areas and NPR 7150.2A compliance matrices can motivate a software developer to consider other career fields. However, with adequate definition, common-sense application, and an appropriate level of built-in flexibility, software engineering processes provide a critical framework in which to conduct a successful software development project. One problem is that current models seem to be built around an underlying assumption of "bigness," and assume that all elements of the process are applicable to all software projects regardless of size and tolerance for risk. This is best illustrated in NASA's NPR 7150.2A in which, aside from some special provisions for manned missions, the software processes are to be applied based solely on the criticality of the software to the mission, completely agnostic of the mission class itself. That is, the processes applicable to a Class A mission (high priority, very low risk tolerance, very high national significance) are precisely the same as those applicable to a Class D mission (low priority, high risk tolerance, low national significance). This paper will propose changes to NPR 7150.2A, taking mission class into consideration, and discuss how some of these changes are being piloted for a current Class D mission—the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS).

Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios with Implications for Landslide Risk: An Example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Žiga; Boerboom, Luc; Glade, Thomas

2015-11-01

This study focuses on future forest cover change in Buzau Subcarpathians, a landslide prone region in Romania. Past and current trends suggest that the area might expect a future increase in deforestation. We developed spatially explicit scenarios until 2040 to analyze the spatial pattern of future forest cover change and potential changes to landslide risk. First, we generated transition probability maps using the weights of evidence method, followed by a cellular automata allocation model. We performed expert interviews, to develop two future forest management scenarios. The Alternative scenario (ALT) was defined by 67 % more deforestation than the Business as Usual scenario (BAU). We integrated the simulated scenarios with a landslide susceptibility map. In both scenarios, most of deforestation was projected in areas where landslides are less likely to occur. Still, 483 (ALT) and 276 (BAU) ha of deforestation were projected on areas with a high-landslide occurrence likelihood. Thus, deforestation could lead to a local-scale increase in landslide risk, in particular near or adjacent to forestry roads. The parallel process of near 10 % forest expansion until 2040 was projected to occur mostly on areas with high-landslide susceptibility. On a regional scale, forest expansion could so result in improved slope stability. We modeled two additional scenarios with an implemented landslide risk policy, excluding high-risk zones. The reduction of deforestation on high-risk areas was achieved without a drastic decrease in the accessibility of the areas. Together with forest expansion, it could therefore be used as a risk reduction strategy.

Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios with Implications for Landslide Risk: An Example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania.

PubMed

Malek, Žiga; Boerboom, Luc; Glade, Thomas

2015-11-01

This study focuses on future forest cover change in Buzau Subcarpathians, a landslide prone region in Romania. Past and current trends suggest that the area might expect a future increase in deforestation. We developed spatially explicit scenarios until 2040 to analyze the spatial pattern of future forest cover change and potential changes to landslide risk. First, we generated transition probability maps using the weights of evidence method, followed by a cellular automata allocation model. We performed expert interviews, to develop two future forest management scenarios. The Alternative scenario (ALT) was defined by 67% more deforestation than the Business as Usual scenario (BAU). We integrated the simulated scenarios with a landslide susceptibility map. In both scenarios, most of deforestation was projected in areas where landslides are less likely to occur. Still, 483 (ALT) and 276 (BAU) ha of deforestation were projected on areas with a high-landslide occurrence likelihood. Thus, deforestation could lead to a local-scale increase in landslide risk, in particular near or adjacent to forestry roads. The parallel process of near 10% forest expansion until 2040 was projected to occur mostly on areas with high-landslide susceptibility. On a regional scale, forest expansion could so result in improved slope stability. We modeled two additional scenarios with an implemented landslide risk policy, excluding high-risk zones. The reduction of deforestation on high-risk areas was achieved without a drastic decrease in the accessibility of the areas. Together with forest expansion, it could therefore be used as a risk reduction strategy.

Bridging Natural and Digital Domains: Attitudes, Confidence, and Interest in Using Technology to Learn Outdoors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hougham, R. Justin; Nutter, Marc; Graham, Caitlin

2018-01-01

Background: The current study, Project EARPOD (Engaging At-Risk Populations Outdoors, Digitally), addressed two questions: First, does the use of technology in environmental education detract from students' experiences outdoors? Second, can these technological interventions be expanded to provide access to students and schools across the…

LBNL report of the vetting review of the GRETINA project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robinson, K.E.; Bercovitz, J.H.; Bieser, F.S.

GRETINA is a gamma-ray detector array capable of reconstructing the energy and spatial positions of gamma-ray interactions within the germanium crystals. It will be used to study the structure and stability of nuclei under various conditions. The new capabilities provided by gamma-ray tracking will give large gains in sensitivity for a large number of experiments, particularly those aimed at nuclei far from beta stability. A proposal for GRETINA was submitted to DOE in June 2003. It presented the scientific case, the readiness of technical development, the design, the suggested management organizations, and a proposed cost and schedule. The GRETINA proposalmore » received its CD0 approval in August 2003. The CD-1 review will be held on December 3 and 4, 2003, and will be handled by the DOE-N. This report presents the charge to the GRETINA vetting review committee, and the findings, comments and recommendations of this committee. The purpose of this project vetting review was to assure that the GRETINA project is on track to provide DOE and the nuclear physics community with the agreed upon deliverables within the agreed upon budget and schedule. The vetting review committee was asked to cover both technical and management aspects of the GRETINA Project. Reviewers offer expert knowledge in relevant areas and provide recommendations and findings to the project's management team. Upon successful completion, the Laboratory's Integrated Project Management Office (IPMO) will recommend signoff of the project to the Laboratory Directorate. The GRETINA vetting review committee was asked to consider all relevant aspects of the project's management, project execution plan (PEP), technical approach and status, cost estimate, resources, schedule and risk and, in doing so, to advise as to whether the GRETINA Project was likely to successfully provide the agreed upon deliverables within the agreed upon budget and schedule. The review committee was asked to identify any project areas that may be incomplete for the current phase in the project and any area of significant risk for the project reaching its objectives. The committee was also asked to review and evaluate the technical status of the project and advise on any concerns or significant technical risks.« less

Climate change will increase the naturalization risk from garden plants in Europe.

PubMed

Dullinger, Iwona; Wessely, Johannes; Bossdorf, Oliver; Dawson, Wayne; Essl, Franz; Gattringer, Andreas; Klonner, Günther; Kreft, Holger; Kuttner, Michael; Moser, Dietmar; Pergl, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; Thuiller, Wilfried; van Kleunen, Mark; Weigelt, Patrick; Winter, Marten; Dullinger, Stefan; Beaumont, Linda

2017-01-01

Plant invasions often follow initial introduction with a considerable delay. The current non-native flora of a region may hence contain species that are not yet naturalized but may become so in the future, especially if climate change lifts limitations on species spread. In Europe, non-native garden plants represent a huge pool of potential future invaders. Here, we evaluate the naturalization risk from this species pool and how it may change under a warmer climate. Europe. We selected all species naturalized anywhere in the world but not yet in Europe from the set of non-native European garden plants. For this subset of 783 species, we used species distribution models to assess their potential European ranges under different scenarios of climate change. Moreover, we defined geographical hotspots of naturalization risk from those species by combining projections of climatic suitability with maps of the area available for ornamental plant cultivation. Under current climate, 165 species would already find suitable conditions in > 5% of Europe. Although climate change substantially increases the potential range of many species, there are also some that are predicted to lose climatically suitable area under a changing climate, particularly species native to boreal and Mediterranean biomes. Overall, hotspots of naturalization risk defined by climatic suitability alone, or by a combination of climatic suitability and appropriate land cover, are projected to increase by up to 102% or 64%, respectively. Our results suggest that the risk of naturalization of European garden plants will increase with warming climate, and thus it is very likely that the risk of negative impacts from invasion by these plants will also grow. It is therefore crucial to increase awareness of the possibility of biological invasions among horticulturalists, particularly in the face of a warming climate.

Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romero Rojo, F. J.; Roy, R.; Kelly, S.

2012-05-01

A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

Heart Disease and Cancer Deaths — Trends and Projections in the United States, 1969–2020

PubMed Central

Anderson, Robert N.; Coleman King, Sallyann M.; Soman, Ashwini; Thompson, Trevor D.; Hong, Yuling; Moller, Bjorn; Leadbetter, Steven

2016-01-01

Introduction Heart disease and cancer are the first and second leading causes of death in the United States. Age-standardized death rates (risk) have declined since the 1960s for heart disease and for cancer since the 1990s, whereas the overall number of heart disease deaths declined and cancer deaths increased. We analyzed mortality data to evaluate and project the effect of risk reduction, population growth, and aging on the number of heart disease and cancer deaths to the year 2020. Methods We used mortality data, population estimates, and population projections to estimate and predict heart disease and cancer deaths from 1969 through 2020 and to apportion changes in deaths resulting from population risk, growth, and aging. Results We predicted that from 1969 through 2020, the number of heart disease deaths would decrease 21.3% among men (–73.9% risk, 17.9% growth, 34.7% aging) and 13.4% among women (–73.3% risk, 17.1% growth, 42.8% aging) while the number of cancer deaths would increase 91.1% among men (–33.5% risk, 45.6% growth, 79.0% aging) and 101.1% among women (–23.8% risk, 48.8% growth, 76.0% aging). We predicted that cancer would become the leading cause of death around 2016, although sex-specific crossover years varied. Conclusion Risk of death declined more steeply for heart disease than cancer, offset the increase in heart disease deaths, and partially offset the increase in cancer deaths resulting from demographic changes over the past 4 decades. If current trends continue, cancer will become the leading cause of death by 2020. PMID:27854420

Vulnerability of Breeding Waterbirds to Climate Change in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A

PubMed Central

Steen, Valerie; Skagen, Susan K.; Noon, Barry R.

2014-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs). We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971–2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables. For each species, we predicted current distribution based on climate records for 1981–2000 and projected future distributions to climate scenarios for 2040–2049. Species were projected to, on average, lose almost half their current habitat (-46%). However, individual species projections varied widely, from +8% (Upland Sandpiper) to -100% (Wilson's Snipe). Variable importance ranks indicated that land cover (wetland and upland) variables were generally more important than climate variables in predicting species distributions. However, climate variables were relatively more important during a drought period. Projected distributions of species responses to climate change contracted within current areas of distribution rather than shifting. Given the large variation in species-level impacts, we suggest that climate change mitigation efforts focus on species projected to be the most vulnerable by enacting targeted wetland management, easement acquisition, and restoration efforts. PMID:24927165

Vulnerability of breeding waterbirds to climate change in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Valerie; Skagen, Susan K.; Noon, Barry R.

2014-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs). We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971–2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables. For each species, we predicted current distribution based on climate records for 1981–2000 and projected future distributions to climate scenarios for 2040–2049. Species were projected to, on average, lose almost half their current habitat (-46%). However, individual species projections varied widely, from +8% (Upland Sandpiper) to -100% (Wilson's Snipe). Variable importance ranks indicated that land cover (wetland and upland) variables were generally more important than climate variables in predicting species distributions. However, climate variables were relatively more important during a drought period. Projected distributions of species responses to climate change contracted within current areas of distribution rather than shifting. Given the large variation in species-level impacts, we suggest that climate change mitigation efforts focus on species projected to be the most vulnerable by enacting targeted wetland management, easement acquisition, and restoration efforts.

Rapid Electrochemical Detection and Identification of Microbiological and Chemical Contaminants for Manned Spaceflight Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierson, Duane; Botkin, Douglas; Gazda, Daniel

2014-01-01

Microbial control in the spacecraft environment is a daunting task, especially in the presence of human crew members. Currently, assessing the potential crew health risk associated with a microbial contamination event requires return of representative environmental samples that are analyzed in a ground-based laboratory. It is therefore not currently possible to quickly identify microbes during spaceflight. This project addresses the unmet need for spaceflight-compatible microbial identification technology. The electrochemical detection and identification platform is expected to provide a sensitive, specific, and rapid sample-to-answer capability for in-flight microbial monitoring that can distinguish between related microorganisms (pathogens and non-pathogens) as well as chemical contaminants. This will dramatically enhance our ability to monitor the spacecraft environment and the health risk to the crew. Further, the project is expected to eliminate the need for sample return while significantly reducing crew time required for detection of multiple targets. Initial work will focus on the optimization of bacterial detection and identification. The platform is designed to release nucleic acids (DNA and RNA) from microorganisms without the use of harmful chemicals. Bacterial DNA or RNA is captured by bacteria-specific probe molecules that are bound to a microelectrode, and that capture event can generate a small change in the electrical current (Lam, et al. 2012. Anal. Chem. 84(1): 21-5.). This current is measured, and a determination is made whether a given microbe is present in the sample analyzed. Chemical detection can be accomplished by directly applying a sample to the microelectrode and measuring the resulting current change. This rapid microbial and chemical detection device is designed to be a low-cost, low-power platform anticipated to be operated independently of an external power source, characteristics optimal for manned spaceflight and areas where power and computing resources are scarce.

Assess the flood resilience tools integration in the landuse projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moulin, E.; Deroubaix, J.-F.

2012-04-01

Despite a severe regulation concerning the building in flooding areas, 80% of these areas are already built in the Greater Paris (Paris, Val-de-Marne, Hauts-de-Seine and Seine-Saint-Denis). The land use in flooding area is presented as one of the main solutions to solve the ongoing real estate pressure. For instance some of the industrial wastelands located along the river are currently in redevelopment and residential buildings are planned. So the landuse in the flooding areas is currently a key issue in the development of the Greater Paris area. To deal with floods there are some resilience tools, whether structural (such as perimeter barriers or building aperture barriers, etc) or non structural (such as warning systems, etc.). The technical solutions are available and most of the time efficient1. Still, we notice that these tools are not much implemented. The people; stakeholders and inhabitants, literally seems to be not interested. This papers focus on the integration of resilience tools in urban projects. Indeed one of the blockages in the implementation of an efficient flood risk prevention policy is the lack of concern of the landuse stakeholders and the inhabitants for the risk2. We conducted an important number of interviews with stakeholders involved in various urban projects and we assess, in this communication, to what extent the improvement of the resilience to floods is considered as a main issue in the execution of an urban project? How this concern is maintained or could be maintained throughout the project. Is there a dilution of this concern? In order to develop this topic we rely on a case study. The "Ardoines" is a project aiming at redeveloping an industrial site (South-East Paris), into a project including residential and office buildings and other amenities. In order to elaborate the master plan, the urban planning authority brought together some flood risk experts. According to the comments of the experts, the architect in charge of the landuse elaborated the master plan taking into account the flood risk; reducing vulnerability of the area and improving the resilience in case of floods, towards a threshold plan. We set this case-study back in the French policy context of prevention and protection against floods and in the context of the Greater Paris development. There are two levels of problems: In the case of the Ardoines project, the reduction of vulnerability isn't linked with the improvement of the resilience. Indeed, the stakeholders do not envisage an event worst than the 100-years flood return period, the one taken into account in a flood prevention plan. The regulation is the guide for construction rules but there is no consideration for the crisis management. Moreover, the reduction of vulnerability appears less important than the economical issues in the management of a project. This case study illustrates how the lack of awareness for territorial resilience issues and the lack of interest for flood resilience tools are embedded in the "governance" of the risk in the greater Paris area.

Gender-specific HIV prevention interventions for women who use alcohol and other drugs: The evolution of the science and future directions

PubMed Central

Wechsberg, Wendee M.; Deren, Sherry; Myers, Bronwyn; Kirtadze, Irma; Zule, William A.; Howard, Brittni; El-Bassel, Nabila

2015-01-01

The use of alcohol and other drugs (AODs) is an important driver of gender disparities in HIV prevalence. Consequently, there is a need for women-specific HIV interventions that are conceptualized to address (1) women’s risk behavior, their roles in sexual relationships, and gender power dynamics, and (2) other issues commonly faced by women who use AODs, such as gender-based violence and victimization. This article presents the evolution of HIV prevention intervention research with women who use AODs. It looks at three generations of women-focused HIV research interventions, including first-generation projects that started in the 1990s, second-generation efforts where projects expanded in scope and included adaptions of evidence-based interventions for global relevance, and finally third-generation projects currently underway that combine biobehavioral methods and are being implemented in real-world settings. Because women who use AODs continue to report risk behaviors related to HIV, emphasis should be placed on training scientists to conduct gender-specific studies, increasing funding for new studies, and advocating to ensure that stigma-free services are available for these at-risk women. PMID:25978479

Climate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s.

PubMed

Hajat, Shakoor; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Heaviside, Clare; Eggen, Bernd

2014-07-01

The most direct way in which climate change is expected to affect public health relates to changes in mortality rates associated with exposure to ambient temperature. Many countries worldwide experience annual heat-related and cold-related deaths associated with current weather patterns. Future changes in climate may alter such risks. Estimates of the likely future health impacts of such changes are needed to inform public health policy on climate change in the UK and elsewhere. Time-series regression analysis was used to characterise current temperature-mortality relationships by region and age group. These were then applied to the local climate and population projections to estimate temperature-related deaths for the UK by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Greater variability in future temperatures as well as changes in mean levels was modelled. A significantly raised risk of heat-related and cold-related mortality was observed in all regions. The elderly were most at risk. In the absence of any adaptation of the population, heat-related deaths would be expected to rise by around 257% by the 2050s from a current annual baseline of around 2000 deaths, and cold-related mortality would decline by 2% from a baseline of around 41 000 deaths. The cold burden remained higher than the heat burden in all periods. The increased number of future temperature-related deaths was partly driven by projected population growth and ageing. Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold impacts will also remain important in the UK. The demographic changes expected this century mean that the health protection of the elderly will be vital. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Internship - practical education

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Porell, A.L.; Bauman, H.F.

1989-01-01

The current emphasis on regulatory compliance with environmental laws has depleted the availability of experienced environmental scientists and engineers needed to initiate critical environmental projects. Further, projects of short duration and long-term commitments to employment situations are considered a high risk for both the employer and the employee. Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., has met this challenge for federal agencies through the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) Hazardous Waste Remedial Actions Program (HAZWRAP). Through unique interdepartmental agency agreements between the DOE and the Department of Defense (DOD) and contractual arrangements between Energy Systems, DOE, and the University of Tennessee's (UT's)more » Waste Management Institute (WMI), an intern program was formulated. HAZWRAP is a DOE headquarters' program for addressing hazardous-waste issues at all DOE facilities. Energy Systems is the support contractor office responsible for developing policies and implementing plans for this program. Under this charter, HAZWRAP assembled a large staff of experienced project managers for developing remedial actions plans, while providing other federal agencies assistance in implementing their remedial actions programs. HAZWRAP project managers are currently managing remedial investigations and feasibility studies at 130 federal facilities located throughout the DOD.« less

Risk Management for Human Support Technology Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

jones, Harry

2005-01-01

NASA requires continuous risk management for all programs and projects. The risk management process identifies risks, analyzes their impact, prioritizes them, develops and carries out plans to mitigate or accept them, tracks risks and mitigation plans, and communicates and documents risk information. Project risk management is driven by the project goal and is performed by the entire team. Risk management begins early in the formulation phase with initial risk identification and development of a risk management plan and continues throughout the project life cycle. This paper describes the risk management approach that is suggested for use in NASA's Human Support Technology Development. The first step in risk management is to identify the detailed technical and programmatic risks specific to a project. Each individual risk should be described in detail. The identified risks are summarized in a complete risk list. Risk analysis provides estimates of the likelihood and the qualitative impact of a risk. The likelihood and impact of the risk are used to define its priority location in the risk matrix. The approaches for responding to risk are either to mitigate it by eliminating or reducing the effect or likelihood of a risk, to accept it with a documented rationale and contingency plan, or to research or monitor the risk, The Human Support Technology Development program includes many projects with independently achievable goals. Each project must do independent risk management, considering all its risks together and trading them against performance, budget, and schedule. Since the program can succeed even if some projects fail, the program risk has a complex dependence on the individual project risks.

Climate change impact assessment on flow regime by incorporating spatial correlation and scenario uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

2017-07-01

Flooding risk is increasing in many parts of the world and may worsen under climate change conditions. The accuracy of predicting flooding risk relies on reasonable projection of meteorological data (especially rainfall) at the local scale. The current statistical downscaling approaches face the difficulty of projecting multi-site climate information for future conditions while conserving spatial information. This study presents a combined Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) stochastic weather generator and multi-site rainfall simulator RainSim (CLWRS) approach to investigate flow regimes under future conditions in the Kootenay Watershed, Canada. To understand the uncertainty effect stemming from different scenarios, the climate output is fed into a hydrologic model. The results showed different variation trends of annual peak flows (in 2080-2099) based on different climate change scenarios and demonstrated that the hydrological impact would be driven by the interaction between snowmelt and peak flows. The proposed CLWRS approach is useful where there is a need for projection of potential climate change scenarios.

Technology Development for Fire Safety in Exploration Spacecraft and Habitats

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruff, Gary A.; Urban, David L.

2007-01-01

Fire during an exploration mission far from Earth is a particularly critical risk for exploration vehicles and habitats. The Fire Prevention, Detection, and Suppression (FPDS) project is part of the Exploration Technology Development Program (ETDP) and has the goal to enhance crew health and safety on exploration missions by reducing the likelihood of a fire, or, if one does occur, minimizing the risk to the mission, crew, or system. Within the past year, the FPDS project has been formalized within the ETDP structure and has seen significant progress on its tasks in fire prevention, detection, and suppression. As requirements for Constellation vehicles and, specifically, the CEV have developed, the need for the FPDS technologies has become more apparent and we continue to make strides to infuse them into the Constellation architecture. This paper describes the current structure of the project within the ETDP and summarizes the significant programmatic activities. Major technical accomplishments are identified as are activities planned for FY07.

Technology Development for Fire Safety in Exploration Spacecraft and Habitats

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruff, Gary A.; Urban, David L.

2006-01-01

Fire during an exploration mission far from Earth is a particularly critical risk for exploration vehicles and habitats. The Fire Prevention, Detection, and Suppression (FPDS) project is part of the Exploration Technology Development Program (ETDP) and has the goal to enhance crew health and safety on exploration missions by reducing the likelihood of a fire, or, if one does occur, minimizing the risk to the mission, crew, or system. Within the past year, the FPDS project has been formalized within the ETDP structure and has seen significant progress on its tasks in fire prevention, detection, and suppression. As requirements for Constellation vehicles and, specifically, the CEV have developed, the need for the FPDS technologies has become more apparent and we continue to make strides to infuse them into the Constellation architecture. This paper describes the current structure of the project within the ETDP and summarizes the significant programmatic activities. Major technical accomplishments are identified as are activities planned for FY07.

ProjectHeartforGirls.com: Development of a Web-Based HIV/STD Prevention Program for Adolescent Girls Emphasizing Sexual Communication Skills.

PubMed

Widman, Laura; Golin, Carol E; Noar, Seth M; Massey, Joy; Prinstein, Mitchell J

2016-10-01

This article describes the development of ProjectHeartforGirls.com , an interactive web-based program designed to improve sexual communication skills and reduce the risk of HIV/STDs among adolescent girls, a population at heightened risk for negative sexual health outcomes (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2013). Although sexual communication is a critical predictor of safer sex among teens, there are few online interventions that target these skills as a central program component. We developed ProjectHeartforGirls.com to fill this gap. Program development involved (1) identifying the target population (ethnically diverse high school girls), (2) clarifying the theoretical foundation (Reasoned Action Model), (3) conducting formative qualitative research (n = 25 girls), (4) drafting initial program content, (5) receiving ongoing feedback from a teen advisory board (n = 5 girls), (6) programming online content, and (7) conducting usability testing (n = 6 girls). These steps are described along with the final intervention product, which is currently being evaluated in a randomized controlled trial.

ProjectHeartForGirls.com: Development of a web-based HIV/STD prevention program for adolescent girls emphasizing sexual communication skills

PubMed Central

Widman, Laura; Golin, Carol E.; Noar, Seth M.; Massey, Joy; Prinstein, Mitchell J.

2017-01-01

This article describes the development of ProjectHeartforGirls.com, an interactive web-based program designed to improve sexual communication skills and reduce the risk of HIV/STDs among adolescent girls, a population at heightened risk for negative sexual health outcomes (CDC, 2013). Although sexual communication is a critical predictor of safer sex among teens, there are few online interventions that target these skills as a central program component. We developed ProjectHeartforGirls.com to fill this gap. Program development involved 1) identifying the target population (ethnically-diverse high school girls); 2) clarifying the theoretical foundation (Reasoned Action Model); 3) conducting formative qualitative research (n=25 girls); 4) drafting initial program content; 5) receiving ongoing feedback from a teen advisory board (n=5 girls); 6) programming online content; and 7) conducting usability testing (n=6 girls). These steps are described along with the final intervention product, which is currently being evaluated in a randomized controlled trial. PMID:27710087

The CLUVA project: Climate-change scenarios and their impact on urban areas in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Ruocco, Angela; Weets, Guy; Gasparini, Paolo; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Lindley, Sarah; Pauleit, Stephan; Vahed, Anwar; Schiano, Pasquale; Kabisch, Sigrun; Vedeld, Trond; Coly, Adrien; Tonye, Emmanuel; Touré, Hamidou; Kombe, Wilbard; Yeshitela, Kumelachew

2013-04-01

CLUVA (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa; http://www.cluva.eu/) is a 3 years project, funded by the European Commission in 2010. Its main objective is the estimate of the impacts of climate changes in the next 40 years at urban scale in Africa. The mission of CLUVA is to develop methods and knowledge to assess risks cascading from climate-changes. It downscales IPCC climate projections to evaluate threats to selected African test cities; mainly floods, sea-level rise, droughts, heat waves and desertification. The project evaluates and links: social vulnerability; vulnerability of in-town ecosystems and urban-rural interfaces; vulnerability of urban built environment and lifelines; and related institutional and governance dimensions of adaptation. A multi-scale and multi-disciplinary quantitative, probabilistic, modelling is applied. CLUVA brings together climate experts, risk management experts, urban planners and social scientists with their African counterparts in an integrated research effort focusing on the improvement of the capacity of scientific institutions, local councils and civil society to cope with climate change. The CLUVA approach was set-up in the first year of the project and developed as follows: an ensemble of eight global projections of climate changes is produced for east and west Africa until 2050 considering the new IPCC (International Panel on Climate Changes; http://www.ipcc.ch/) scenarios. These are then downscaled to urban level, where territorial modeling is required to compute hazard effects on the vulnerable physical system (urban ecosystems, informal settlements, lifelines such as transportation and sewer networks) as well as on the social context, in defined time frames, and risk analysis is then employed to assess expected consequences. An investigation of the existing urban planning and governance systems and its interface with climate risks is performed. With the aid of the African partners, the developed approach is currently being applied to selected African case studies: Addis Ababa - Ethiopia; Dar es Salaam - Tanzania, Douala - Cameroun; Ouagadougou - Burkina Faso, St. Louis - Senegal. The poster will illustrate the CLUVA's framework to assess climate-change-related risks at an urban scale in Africa, and will report on the progresses of selected case studies to demonstrate feasibility of a multi-scale and multi-risk quantitative approach for risk management.

Toward risk reduction: predicting the future burden of occupational cancer.

PubMed

Hutchings, Sally; Rushton, Lesley

2011-05-01

Interventions to reduce cancers related to certain occupations should be evidence-based. The authors have developed a method for forecasting the future burden of occupational cancer to inform strategies for risk reduction. They project risk exposure periods, accounting for cancer latencies of up to 50 years, forward in time to estimate attributable fractions for a series of forecast target years given past and projected exposure trends and under targeted reduction scenarios. Adjustment factors for changes in exposed numbers and levels are applied in estimation intervals within the risk-exposure periods. The authors illustrate the methods by using a range of scenarios for reducing lung cancer due to occupational exposure to respirable crystalline silica. Attributable fractions for lung cancer due to respirable crystalline silica could be potentially reduced from 2.07% in 2010 to nearly 0% by 2060, depending on the timing and success of interventions. Focusing on achieving compliance with current exposure standards in small industries can be more effective than setting standards at a lower level. The method can be used to highlight high-risk carcinogens, industries, and occupations. It is adaptable for other countries and other exposure situations in the general environment and can be extended to include socioeconomic impact assessment.

Impact of the population at risk of diabetes on projections of diabetes burden in the United States: an epidemic on the way

PubMed Central

Baker, R.; Koopman, R. J.; Saxena, S.; Diaz, V. A.; Everett, C. J.; Majeed, A.

2006-01-01

Aims/hypothesis The aim of this study was to make projections of the future diabetes burden for the adult US population based in part on the prevalence of individuals at high risk of developing diabetes. Materials and methods Models were created from data in the nationally representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) II mortality survey (1976–1992), the NHANES III (1988–1994) and the NHANES 1999–2002. Population models for adults (>20 years of age) from NHANES III data were fitted to known diabetes prevalence in the NHANES 1999–2002 before making future projections. We used a multivariable diabetes risk score to estimate the likelihood of diabetes incidence in 10 years. Estimates of future diabetes (diagnosed and undiagnosed) prevalence in 2011, 2021, and 2031 were made under several assumptions. Results Based on the multivariable diabetes risk score, the number of adults at high risk of diabetes was 38.4 million in 1991 and 49.9 million in 2001. The total diabetes burden is anticipated to be 11.5% (25.4 million) in 2011, 13.5% (32.6 million) in 2021, and 14.5% (37.7 million) in 2031. Among individuals aged 30 to 39 years old who are not currently targeted for screening according to age, the prevalence of diabetes is expected to rise from 3.7% in 2001 to 5.2% in 2031. By 2031, 20.2% of adult Hispanic individuals are expected to have diabetes. Conclusions/interpretation The prevalence of diabetes is projected to rise to substantially greater levels than previously estimated. Diabetes prevalence within the Hispanic community is projected to be potentially overwhelming. Electronic supplementary material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00125-006-0528-5 and is accessible to authorized users. PMID:17119914

Project Risk Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jr., R. F. Miles

1995-01-01

Project risk management is primarily concerned with performance, reliability, cost, and schedule. Environmental risk management is primarily concerned with human health and ecological hazards and likelihoods. This paper discusses project risk management and compares it to environmental risk management, both with respect to goals and implementation. The approach of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to risk management is presented as an example of a project risk management approach that is an extension to NASA NHB 7120.5: Management of Major System Programs and Projects.

Integrated Risk Management Within NASA Programs/Projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Connley, Warren; Rad, Adrian; Botzum, Stephen

2004-01-01

As NASA Project Risk Management activities continue to evolve, the need to successfully integrate risk management processes across the life cycle, between functional disciplines, stakeholders, various management policies, and within cost, schedule and performance requirements/constraints become more evident and important. Today's programs and projects are complex undertakings that include a myriad of processes, tools, techniques, management arrangements and other variables all of which must function together in order to achieve mission success. The perception and impact of risk may vary significantly among stakeholders and may influence decisions that may have unintended consequences on the project during a future phase of the life cycle. In these cases, risks may be unintentionally and/or arbitrarily transferred to others without the benefit of a comprehensive systemic risk assessment. Integrating risk across people, processes, and project requirements/constraints serves to enhance decisions, strengthen communication pathways, and reinforce the ability of the project team to identify and manage risks across the broad spectrum of project management responsibilities. The ability to identify risks in all areas of project management increases the likelihood a project will identify significant issues before they become problems and allows projects to make effective and efficient use of shrinking resources. By getting a total team integrated risk effort, applying a disciplined and rigorous process, along with understanding project requirements/constraints provides the opportunity for more effective risk management. Applying an integrated approach to risk management makes it possible to do a better job at balancing safety, cost, schedule, operational performance and other elements of risk. This paper will examine how people, processes, and project requirements/constraints can be integrated across the project lifecycle for better risk management and ultimately improve the chances for mission success.

Risk Management in Complex Construction Projects that Apply Renewable Energy Sources: A Case Study of the Realization Phase of the Energis Educational and Research Intelligent Building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krechowicz, Maria

2017-10-01

Nowadays, one of the characteristic features of construction industry is an increased complexity of a growing number of projects. Almost each construction project is unique, has its project-specific purpose, its own project structural complexity, owner’s expectations, ground conditions unique to a certain location, and its own dynamics. Failure costs and costs resulting from unforeseen problems in complex construction projects are very high. Project complexity drivers pose many vulnerabilities to a successful completion of a number of projects. This paper discusses the process of effective risk management in complex construction projects in which renewable energy sources were used, on the example of the realization phase of the ENERGIS teaching-laboratory building, from the point of view of DORBUD S.A., its general contractor. This paper suggests a new approach to risk management for complex construction projects in which renewable energy sources were applied. The risk management process was divided into six stages: gathering information, identification of the top, critical project risks resulting from the project complexity, construction of the fault tree for each top, critical risks, logical analysis of the fault tree, quantitative risk assessment applying fuzzy logic and development of risk response strategy. A new methodology for the qualitative and quantitative risk assessment for top, critical risks in complex construction projects was developed. Risk assessment was carried out applying Fuzzy Fault Tree analysis on the example of one top critical risk. Application of the Fuzzy sets theory to the proposed model allowed to decrease uncertainty and eliminate problems with gaining the crisp values of the basic events probability, common during expert risk assessment with the objective to give the exact risk score of each unwanted event probability.

Elaboration and formalization of current scientific knowledge of risks and preventive measures illustrated by colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Giorgi, R; Gouvernet, J; Dufour, J; Degoulet, P; Laugier, R; Quilichini, F; Fieschi, M

2001-01-01

Present the method used to elaborate and formalize current scientific knowledge to provide physicians with tools available on the Internet, that enable them to evaluate individual patient risk, give personalized preventive recommendations or early screening measures. The approach suggested in this article is in line with medical procedures based on levels of evidence (Evidence-based Medicine). A cyclical process for developing recommendations allows us to quickly incorporate current scientific information. At each phase, the analysis is reevaluated by experts in the field collaborating on the project. The information is formalized through the use of levels of evidence and grades of recommendations. GLIF model is used to implement recommendations for clinical practice guidelines. The most current scientific evidence incorporated in a cyclical process includes several steps: critical analysis according to the Evidence-based Medicine method; identification of predictive factors; setting-up risk levels; identification of prevention measures; elaboration of personalized recommendation. The information technology implementation of the clinical practice guideline enables physicians to quickly obtain personalized information for their patients. Cases of colorectal prevention illustrate our approach. Integration of current scientific knowledge is an important process. The delay between the moment new information arrives and the moment the practitioner applies it, is thus reduced.

Interdisciplinary Postdoctoral Training in Global Health Through a Novel Joint Project for Trainees from Diverse Disciplines: Benefits, Risks, and Observations.

PubMed

Oberhelman, Richard A; Huaynate, Cynthia Anticona; Correa, Malena; Malpartida, Holger Mayta; Pajuelo, Monica; Paz-Soldan, Valerie A; Gilman, Robert H; Zimic, Mirko; Murphy, Laura; Belizan, Jose

2017-03-01

Postdoctoral training programs are usually highly individualized arrangements between trainees and a limited number of senior mentors in their field, an approach that contrasts with current trends in public health education that promote interdisciplinary training to spur innovation. Herein, we describe an alternative model for postdoctoral training for a group of fellows from distinct disciplines. Fellows work with mentors from diverse fields to create a joint research project or a group of complementary projects, with the goal of developing a new device, intervention, or innovation to address a global health problem. The perceived benefits, challenges, and limitations of this team approach to interdisciplinary postdoctoral training are presented.

Research on Risk Manage of Power Construction Project Based on Bayesian Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Zhengyuan; Fan, Zhou; Li, Yong

With China's changing economic structure and increasingly fierce competition in the market, the uncertainty and risk factors in the projects of electric power construction are increasingly complex, the projects will face huge risks or even fail if we don't consider or ignore these risk factors. Therefore, risk management in the projects of electric power construction plays an important role. The paper emphatically elaborated the influence of cost risk in electric power projects through study overall risk management and the behavior of individual in risk management, and introduced the Bayesian network to the project risk management. The paper obtained the order of key factors according to both scene analysis and causal analysis for effective risk management.

The role of service learning in teaching and research for disaster-risk reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suckale, J.; Saiyed, Z.; Alvisyahrin, T.; Hilley, G. E.; Muhari, A.; Zoback, M. L. C.; Truebe, S.

2016-12-01

An important motivation for natural-hazards research is to reduce threats posed by natural disasters to at-risk communities. Yet, we rarely teach students how research may be used to construct implementable solutions that reduce disaster risk. The goal of this contribution is to evaluate the potential of service learning to impart students with both the scientific background and the skills necessary to navigate real-world constraints of disaster risk reduction. We present results from a service-learning class taught at Stanford in the Winter quarter of 2016 in collaboration with the Indonesian Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries and Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh. The main deliverable of the class was a final project in which students developed a specific idea of how to contribute to tsunami-risk reduction in Indonesia. A common critique of the service-learning approach posits that it may implicitly embed social and political perspectives within risk-reduction strategies that may be inappropriate within a particular culture. We attempted to avoid this problem using three strategies: First, we paired students from Stanford with students at Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, to facilitate a close dialogue. Second, the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries provided a list of current risk-reduction strategies without requiring students to contribute to one specific project to minimally precondition project suggestions. Third, our community partners provided ongoing feedback on the scope and feasibility of the proposed projects and students were assessed based on their ability to integrate the feedback. Preliminary results from our class suggest significant promise for a service-learning approach to teaching disaster-risk reduction. There was substantial student interest in service learning, particularly among undergraduates. Pre-and post-assessment surveys showed that over 75% of students adjusted previous notions about disaster-risk reduction during the class. The course evaluations also provided several suggestions for improvement such as enabling more dialogue with community partners and better preparation prior to the class for our partner students at Syiah Kuala University that we will adopt in future iterations of the class.

Seismic Risk Assessment of Italian Seaports Using GIS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bartolomei, Anna; Corigliano, Mirko; Lai, Carlo G.

Seaports are crucial elements in the export and import of goods and/or on the flow of travellers in the tourism industry of many industrialised nations included Italy. Experience gained from recent earthquakes (e.g. 1989 Loma Prieta in USA, 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu and 2003 Tokachi-Oki in Japan) have dramatically demonstrated the seismic vulnerability of seaport structures and the severe damage that can be caused by ground shaking. In Italy, the Department of Civil Protection has funded a research project to develop a methodology for the seismic design of new marginal wharves and assessment of existing structures at seaports located in areas ofmore » medium or high seismicity. This paper shows part of the results of this research project, currently underway, with particular reference to the seismic risk assessment through an interactive, geographically referenced database (GIS). Standard risk assessment have been carried out for the Gioia Tauro port in Calabria (Italy) using the empirical curves implemented by the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS, 2004)« less

Assessing Induced Seismicity Risk at CO 2 Storage Projects: Recent Progress and Remaining Challenges

DOE PAGES

White, Joshua A.; Foxall, William

2016-04-13

It is well established that fluid injection has the potential to induce earthquakes—from microseismicity to magnitude 5+ events—by altering state-of-stress conditions in the subsurface. This paper reviews recent lessons learned regarding induced seismicity at carbon storage sites. While similar to other subsurface injection practices, CO 2 injection has distinctive features that should be included in a discussion of its seismic hazard. Induced events have been observed at CO 2 injection projects, though to date it has not been a major operational issue. Nevertheless, the hazard exists and experience with this issue will likely grow as new storage operations come online.more » This review paper focuses on specific technical difficulties that can limit the effectiveness of current risk assessment and risk management approaches, and highlights recent research aimed at overcoming them. Finally, these challenges form the heart of the induced seismicity problem, and novel solutions to them will advance our ability to responsibly deploy large-scale CO 2 storage.« less

Towards a better reliability of risk assessment: development of a qualitative & quantitative risk evaluation model (Q2REM) for different trades of construction works in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Fung, Ivan W H; Lo, Tommy Y; Tung, Karen C F

2012-09-01

Since the safety professionals are the key decision makers dealing with project safety and risk assessment in the construction industry, their perceptions of safety risk would directly affect the reliability of risk assessment. The safety professionals generally tend to heavily rely on their own past experiences to make subjective decisions on risk assessment without systematic decision making. Indeed, understanding of the underlying principles of risk assessment is significant. In this study, the qualitative analysis on the safety professionals' beliefs of risk assessment and their perceptions towards risk assessment, including their recognitions of possible accident causes, the degree of differentiations on their perceptions of risk levels of different trades of works, recognitions of the occurrence of different types of accidents, and their inter-relationships with safety performance in terms of accident rates will be explored in the Stage 1. At the second stage, the deficiencies of the current general practice for risk assessment can be sorted out firstly. Based on the findings from Stage 1 and the historical accident data from 15 large-scaled construction projects in 3-year average, a risk evaluation model prioritizing the risk levels of different trades of works and which cause different types of site accident due to various accident causes will be developed quantitatively. With the suggested systematic accident recording techniques, this model can be implemented in the construction industry at both project level and organizational level. The model (Q(2)REM) not only act as a useful supplementary guideline of risk assessment for the construction safety professionals, but also assists them to pinpoint the potential risks on site for the construction workers under respective trades of works through safety trainings and education. It, in turn, arouses their awareness on safety risk. As the Q(2)REM can clearly show the potential accident causes leading to different types of accident by trade of works, it helps the concerned safety professionals and parties to plan effective accident prevention measures with reference to the priority of the risk levels. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Management and Adaptation Transition Mechanisms and Pathways in New York City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Link, H. D.

2016-12-01

Understanding the values that drive current decision-making is essential to effective management of critical urban infrastructure. As urban infrastructure becomes increasingly interconnected, risks in one sector can translate to citywide risk in the flash of a photon or the blink of an eye. Approaches and goals of risk management vary across geographies. Administrators and residents attempt to reduce vulnerability to hazards and limit the scope of disasters in different ways in different contexts. Public and personal risk management decision making regimes are complex and often shifting. While the overarching goal is to try to reduce the level of risk faced by stakeholders in a particular locale, the conditions and changing character of local risk management decisions are affected by physical, economic and social factors. Opportunities for meaningful action are found at this nexus. To illuminate this nexus, this paper provides a detailed discussion and analysis of the New York City risk management regime and its trajectory as defined by local experts. The risk focus of the analysis is storm surge and flooding, and heat stress. The analysis examines the factors that enable movement and transition between different adaptive regimes, and on factors that support lock-in of current regime status The research utilizes a risk management framework based on four policy states developed for the Transformation and Resilience in the Urban Coast (TRUC) project (Solecki et al. 2016). "Collapse"; a state where there is no strategic risk planning; "Resistance"; risk planning that is directed at stability and aims at protecting current development pathways; "Resilience"; flexible planning that aims at introducing some changes to maintain current development, and "Transformation"; planning for fundamental changes in risk management including changing development choices and paths to accommodate uncertainty and future risk scenarios. (Solecki et al. 2016). To examine the risk management approach in New York City and the conditions for transition researchers gathered primary data - the results of an interactive risk management pathways workshop held in New York City and follow on, face-to-face interviews with local risk managers and stakeholders.

Global Squeeze: Assessing Climate-Critical Resource Constraints for Coastal Climate Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chase, N. T.; Becker, A.; Schwegler, B.; Fischer, M.

2014-12-01

The projected impacts of climate change in the coastal zone will require local planning and local resources to adapt to increasing risks of social, environmental, and economic consequences from extreme events. This means that, for the first time in human history, aggregated local demands could outpace global supply of certain "climate-critical resources." For example, construction materials such as sand and gravel, steel, and cement may be needed to fortify many coastal locations at roughly the same point in time if decision makers begin to construct new storm barriers or elevate coastal lands. Where might adaptation bottlenecks occur? Can the world produce enough cement to armour the world's seaports as flood risks increase due to sea-level rise and more intense storms? Just how many coastal engineers would multiple such projects require? Understanding such global implications of adaptation requires global datasets—such as bathymetry, coastal topography, local sea-level rise and storm surge projections, and construction resource production capacity—that are currently unavailable at a resolution appropriate for a global-scale analysis. Our research group has identified numerous gaps in available data necessary to make such estimates on both the supply and demand sides of this equation. This presentation examines the emerging need and current availability of these types of datasets and argues for new coordinated efforts to develop and share such data.

Optical biosensor system for the quick and reliable detection of virus infections: VIROSENS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Proll, Günther; Hartjes, Anja; Sinclair, Alexander; Markovic, Goran; Pröll, Florian; Patel, Pranav; Niedrig, Matthias

2014-10-01

Viral infections are of special threat because they can induce severe courses of disease but only few medical treatments are available. Because of socio-economic and climate changes, increased worldwide mobility and population growth, the risk of newly occurring and quickly spreading viral pathogens has increased. A diagnosis of these diseases at an early stage is essential for a quick risk assessment and a proper health management as well as patient's treatment in an optimal way. Currently, the diagnosis of such diseases is based on time consuming and costly detection methods that can only be performed by specially trained personnel in laboratories at specific security levels. Aim of the project VIROSENS is the development of a biosensor platform that can specifically detect virus particles as well as virus-specific antibodies out of biological matrices like blood, serum, plasma and other body fluids. For this purpose, a disposable cartridge for such antibody- and virus-arrays is designed and developed within the project. The optical detection of viruses is performed with a portable device that will be benchmarked and evaluated concerning currently used standard detection methods in terms of its analytical performance. Within this project, a novel combination of serological tests and direct detection of virus particles will be developed, which will provide faster and more reliable results than presently available and used test systems.

Self-Esteem Enhancing Reasons for Having Sex and the Sexual Behaviors of African American Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robinson, Melissa L.; Holmbeck, Grayson N.; Paikoff, Roberta

2007-01-01

A sample of 146 African American adolescents living in impoverished neighborhoods with high HIV rates participated in the Chicago HIV Prevention and Adolescent Mental Health Project (CHAMP), a longitudinal study of adolescent HIV risk exposure. The current study examined self-reported reasons why African American adolescents may participate in…

Prioritization Risk Integration Simulation Model (PRISM) For Environmental Remediation and Waste Management - 12097

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pentz, David L.; Stoll, Ralph H.; Greeves, John T.

2012-07-01

The PRISM (Prioritization Risk Integration Simulation Model), a computer model was developed to support the Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) in its mission to clean up the environmental legacy from the Nation's nuclear weapons materials production complex. PRISM provides a comprehensive, fully integrated planning tool that can tie together DOE-EM's projects. It is designed to help DOE managers develop sound, risk-informed business practices and defend program decisions. It provides a better ability to understand and manage programmatic risks. The underlying concept for PRISM is that DOE-EM 'owns' a portfolio of environmental legacy obligations (ELOs), and that itsmore » mission is to transform the ELOs from their current conditions to acceptable conditions, in the most effective way possible. There are many types of ELOs - - contaminated soils and groundwater plumes, disused facilities awaiting D and D, and various types of wastes waiting for processing or disposal. For a given suite of planned activities, PRISM simulates the outcomes as they play out over time, allowing for all key identified uncertainties and risk factors. Each contaminated building, land area and waste stream is tracked from cradle to grave, and all of the linkages affecting different waste streams are captured. The progression of the activities is fully dynamic, reflecting DOE-EM's prioritization approaches, precedence requirements, available funding, and the consequences of risks and uncertainties. The top level of PRISM is the end-user interface that allows rapid evaluation of alternative scenarios and viewing the results in a variety of useful ways. PRISM is a fully probabilistic model, allowing the user to specify uncertainties in input data (such as the magnitude of an existing groundwater plume, or the total cost to complete a planned activity) as well as specific risk events that might occur. PRISM is based on the GoldSim software that is widely used for risk and performance assessment calculations. PRISM can be run in a deterministic mode, which quickly provides an estimate of the most likely results of a given plan. Alternatively, the model can be run probabilistically in a Monte Carlo mode, exploring the risks and uncertainties in the system and producing probability distributions for the different performance measures. The PRISM model demonstrates how EM can evaluate a portfolio of ELOs, and transform the ELOs from their current conditions to acceptable conditions, utilizing different strategic approaches. There are many types of ELOs - contaminated soils and groundwater plumes, disused facilities awaiting D and D, and various types of wastes waiting for processing or disposal. This scope of work for the PRISM process and the development of a dynamic simulation model are a logical extension of the GoldSim simulation software used by the OCRWM to assess the long-term performance for the Yucca Mountain Project and by NNSA to assess project risk at its sites. Systems integration modeling will promote better understanding of all project risks, technical and nontechnical, and more defensible decision-making for complex projects with significant uncertainties. It can provide effective visual communication and rapid adaptation during interactions with stakeholders (Administration, Congress, State, Local, and NGO). It will also allow rapid assessment of alternative management approaches. (authors)« less

Lunar Industry & Research Base Concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lysenko, J.; Kaliapin, M.; Osinovyy, G.

2017-09-01

Currently, all main space industry players, such as Europe, USA, Russia, China, etc., are looking back again at the idea of Moon exploration building there a manned lunar base. Alongside with other world spacefaring nations, Yuzhnoye State Design Office with its long-time development experience, technological and intellectual potential, organized its own conceptual work on development of the Lunar Industry & Research Base. In the frames of conceptual project "Lunar Industrial & Research Base" were formed its appearance, preliminary configuration and infrastructure at different stages of operation, trajectory and flight scheme to the Moon, as well as terms of the project's realization, and main technical characteristics of the systems under development, such as space transportation system for crew and cargo delivery to lunar surface and return to Earth, standardized designs of lunar modules, lunar surface vehicles, etc. The "Lunar Industrial & Research Base" project's preliminary risk assessment has shown a high value of its overall risk due to the lack of reliable information about the Moon, technical risks, long-term development of its elements, very high financial costs and dependence on state support. This points to the fact that it is reasonable to create such a global project in cooperation with other countries. International cooperation will expand the capabilities of any nation, reduce risks and increase the success probability of automated or manned space missions. It is necessary to create and bring into operation practical mechanisms for long-term space exploration on a global scale. One of the ways to do this is to create a multinational agency which would include both state enterprises and private companies.

Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Serreze, Mark; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Caswell, Hal

2014-08-01

Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution and future trends of local populations, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) effort. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by >50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics, global analyses are critical for conservation. We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangered by future climate change.

Potential distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change and economic development.

PubMed

Aström, Christofer; Rocklöv, Joacim; Hales, Simon; Béguin, Andreas; Louis, Valerie; Sauerborn, Rainer

2012-12-01

Dengue fever is the most important viral vector-borne disease with ~50 million cases per year globally. Previous estimates of the potential effect of global climate change on the distribution of vector-borne disease have not incorporated the effect of socioeconomic factors, which may have biased the results. We describe an empirical model of the current geographic distribution of dengue, based on the independent effects of climate and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc, a proxy for socioeconomic development). We use the model, along with scenario-based projections of future climate, economic development, and population, to estimate populations at risk of dengue in the year 2050. We find that both climate and GDPpc influence the distribution of dengue. If the global climate changes as projected but GDPpc remained constant, the population at risk of dengue is estimated to increase by about 0.28 billion in 2050. However, if both climate and GDPpc change as projected, we estimate a decrease of 0.12 billion in the population at risk of dengue in 2050. Empirically, the geographic distribution of dengue is strongly dependent on both climatic and socioeconomic variables. Under a scenario of constant GDPpc, global climate change results in a modest but important increase in the global population at risk of dengue. Under scenarios of high GDPpc, this adverse effect of climate change is counteracted by the beneficial effect of socioeconomic development.

Pharmacogenomic Approaches for Automated Medication Risk Assessment in People with Polypharmacy

PubMed Central

Liu, Jiazhen; Friedman, Carol; Finkelstein, Joseph

2018-01-01

Abstract Medication regimen may be optimized based on individual drug efficacy identified by pharmacogenomic testing. However, majority of current pharmacogenomic decision support tools provide assessment only of single drug-gene interactions without taking into account complex drug-drug and drug-drug-gene interactions which are prevalent in people with polypharmacy and can result in adverse drug events or insufficient drug efficacy. The main objective of this project was to develop comprehensive pharmacogenomic decision support for medication risk assessment in people with polypharmacy that simultaneously accounts for multiple drug and gene effects. To achieve this goal, the project addressed two aims: (1) development of comprehensive knowledge repository of actionable pharmacogenes; (2) introduction of scoring approaches reflecting potential adverse effect risk levels of complex medication regimens accounting for pharmacogenomic polymorphisms and multiple drug metabolizing pathways. After pharmacogenomic knowledge repository was introduced, a scoring algorithm has been built and pilot-tested using a limited data set. The resulting total risk score for frequently hospitalized older adults with polypharmacy (72.04±17.84) was statistically significantly different (p<0.05) from the total risk score for older adults with polypharmacy with low hospitalization rate (8.98±2.37). An initial prototype assessment demonstrated feasibility of our approach and identified steps for improving risk scoring algorithms.

Knowledge to Action - Understanding Natural Hazards-Induced Power Outage Scenarios for Actionable Disaster Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kar, B.; Robinson, C.; Koch, D. B.; Omitaomu, O.

2017-12-01

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 identified the following four priorities to prevent and reduce disaster risks: i) understanding disaster risk; ii) strengthening governance to manage disaster risk; iii) investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience and; iv) enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response, and to "Build Back Better" in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction. While forecasting and decision making tools are in place to predict and understand future impacts of natural hazards, the knowledge to action approach that currently exists fails to provide updated information needed by decision makers to undertake response and recovery efforts following a hazard event. For instance, during a tropical storm event advisories are released every two to three hours, but manual analysis of geospatial data to determine potential impacts of the event tends to be time-consuming and a post-event process. Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have developed a Spatial Decision Support System that enables real-time analysis of storm impact based on updated advisory. A prototype of the tool that focuses on determining projected power outage areas and projected duration of outages demonstrates the feasibility of integrating science with decision making for emergency management personnel to act in real time to protect communities and reduce risk.

ePORT, NASA's Computer Database Program for System Safety Risk Management Oversight (Electronic Project Online Risk Tool)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Paul W.

2008-01-01

ePORT (electronic Project Online Risk Tool) provides a systematic approach to using an electronic database program to manage a program/project risk management processes. This presentation will briefly cover the standard risk management procedures, then thoroughly cover NASA's Risk Management tool called ePORT. This electronic Project Online Risk Tool (ePORT) is a web-based risk management program that provides a common framework to capture and manage risks, independent of a programs/projects size and budget. It is used to thoroughly cover the risk management paradigm providing standardized evaluation criterion for common management reporting, ePORT improves Product Line, Center and Corporate Management insight, simplifies program/project manager reporting, and maintains an archive of data for historical reference.

Development of funding project risk management tools.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

Funding project risk management is a process for identifying, assessing, and prioritizing project funding risks. To plan to : minimize or eliminate the impact of negative events, one must identify what projects have higher risk to respond to potentia...

RISK MANAGEMENT USING PROJECT RECON

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-28

Risk Management Using Project Recon UNCLASSIFIED: Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Bonnie Leece... Project Recon Lead What is Project Recon? • A web-based GOTS tool designed to capture, manage, and link Risks, Issues, and Opportunities in a...centralized database. • Project Recon (formerly Risk Recon) is designed to be used by all Program Management Offices, Integrated Project Teams and any

Tool for Smart Integration of Solar Power

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Becker, Alan

2017-01-31

Kevala addresses a significant problem in solar deployment - reducing the risk of investing in solar by determining the inherent value of solar electricity based on the location where it is produced. Kevala’s product will transform the way solar assets are proposed, assessed, and financed resulting in lower capital costs, opening new markets and streamlining siting and customer acquisition. Using detailed electricity infrastructure data, pricing information, GIS mapping, and proprietary algorithms, Kevala’s Grid Assessor software lowers financial risk by providing transparency into the current and future value of projects based on their location.

Climate change induced risk analysis of Dar es Salaam city (Tanzania)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Topa, Maria Elena; Herslund, Lise; Cavan, Gina; Printz, Andreas; Simonis, Ingo; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie; Hellevik, Siri; Johns, Regina; Kibassa, Deusdedit; Kweka, Clara; Magina, Fredrick; Mangula, Alpha; Mbuya, Elinorata; Uhinga, Guido; Kassenga, Gabriel; Kyessi, Alphonce; Shemdoe, Riziki; Kombe, Wilbard

2013-04-01

CLUVA (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa; http://www.cluva.eu/) is a 3 years project, funded by the European Commission in 2010. The main objective of CLUVA is to develop context-centered methods and knowledge to be applied to African cities to assess vulnerabilities and increase knowledge on managing climate related risks. The project estimates the impacts of climate changes in the next 40 years at urban scale and downscales IPCC climate projections to evaluate specific threats to selected African test cities. These are mainly from floods, sea-level rise, droughts, heat waves, and desertification. The project evaluates and links: social vulnerability; urban green structures and ecosystem services; urban-rural interfaces; vulnerability of urban built environment and lifelines; and related institutional and governance dimensions of adaptation. The multi-scale and multi-disciplinary qualitative, quantitative and probabilistic approach of CLUVA is currently being applied to selected African test cities (Addis Ababa - Ethiopia; Dar es Salaam - Tanzania; Douala - Cameroun; Ouagadougou - Burkina Faso; St. Louis - Senegal). In particular, the poster will present preliminary findings for the Dar es Salaam case study. Dar es Salaam, which is Tanzania's largest coastal city, is exposed to floods, coastal erosion, droughts and heat waves, and highly vulnerable to impacts as a result of ineffective urban planning (about 70% unplanned settlements), poverty and lack of basic infrastructure (e.g. lack of or poor quality storm water drainage systems). Climate change could exacerbate the current situation increasing hazard-exposure alongside the impacts of development pressures which act to increase urban vulnerability for example because of informal (unregulated) urbanization. The CLUVA research team - composed of climate and environmental scientists, risk management experts, urban planners and social scientists from both European and African institutions - has started to produce research outputs suitable for use in evidence-based planning activities in the case study cities through interdisciplinary methods and analysis. Climate change projections at 8 km resolution are ready for regions containing each of the case study cities; a preliminary hazard assessment for floods, droughts and heat waves has been performed, based on historical data; urban morphology and related green structures have been characterized; preliminary findings in social vulnerability provide insights how communities and households can resist and cope with, as well as recover from climate induced hazards; vulnerability of informal settlements to floods has been assessed for a case study area (Suna sub ward) and a GIS based identification of urban residential hotspots to flooding is completed. Furthermore, a set of indicators has been identified and the most relevant for Dar es Salaam has been selected by local stakeholders to identify particular vulnerable high risk areas and communities. An investigation of the existing urban planning and governance system and its interface with climate risks and vulnerability has inter-alia suggested severe institutional deficits including over-centralized institutions for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. A multi-risk framework considering climate-related hazards, and physical and social fragilities has been set up.

The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two vectors of Chagas disease: implications for the force of infection

PubMed Central

Medone, Paula; Ceccarelli, Soledad; Parham, Paul E.; Figuera, Andreína; Rabinovich, Jorge E.

2015-01-01

Chagas disease, caused by the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, is the most important vector-borne disease in Latin America. The vectors are insects belonging to the Triatominae (Hemiptera, Reduviidae), and are widely distributed in the Americas. Here, we assess the implications of climatic projections for 2050 on the geographical footprint of two of the main Chagas disease vectors: Rhodnius prolixus (tropical species) and Triatoma infestans (temperate species). We estimated the epidemiological implications of current to future transitions in the climatic niche in terms of changes in the force of infection (FOI) on the rural population of two countries: Venezuela (tropical) and Argentina (temperate). The climatic projections for 2050 showed heterogeneous impact on the climatic niches of both vector species, with a decreasing trend of suitability of areas that are currently at high-to-moderate transmission risk. Consequently, climatic projections affected differently the FOI for Chagas disease in Venezuela and Argentina. Despite the heterogeneous results, our main conclusions point out a decreasing trend in the number of new cases of Tr. cruzi human infections per year between current and future conditions using a climatic niche approach. PMID:25688019

Recent and projected future climatic suitability of North America for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus.

PubMed

Ogden, Nicholas H; Milka, Radojević; Caminade, Cyril; Gachon, Philippe

2014-12-02

Since the 1980s, populations of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus have become established in south-eastern, eastern and central United States, extending to approximately 40°N. Ae. albopictus is a vector of a wide range of human pathogens including dengue and chikungunya viruses, which are currently emerging in the Caribbean and Central America and posing a threat to North America. The risk of Ae. albopictus expanding its geographic range in North America under current and future climate was assessed using three climatic indicators of Ae. albopictus survival: overwintering conditions (OW), OW combined with annual air temperature (OWAT), and a linear index of precipitation and air temperature suitability expressed through a sigmoidal function (SIG). The capacity of these indicators to predict Ae. albopictus occurrence was evaluated using surveillance data from the United States. Projected future climatic suitability for Ae. albopictus was obtained using output of nine Regional Climate Model experiments (RCMs). OW and OWAT showed >90% specificity and sensitivity in predicting observed Ae. albopictus occurrence and also predicted moderate to high risk of Ae. albopictus invasion in Pacific coastal areas of the Unites States and Canada under current climate. SIG also well predicted observed Ae. albopictus occurrence (ROC area under the curve was 0.92) but predicted wider current climatic suitability in the north-central and north-eastern United States and south-eastern Canada. RCM output projected modest (circa 500 km) future northward range expansion of Ae. albopictus by the 2050s when using OW and OWAT indicators, but greater (600-1000 km) range expansion, particularly in eastern and central Canada, when using the SIG indicator. Variation in future possible distributions of Ae. albopictus was greater amongst the climatic indicators used than amongst the RCM experiments. Current Ae. albopictus distributions were well predicted by simple climatic indicators and northward range expansion was predicted for the future with climate change. However, current and future predicted geographic distributions of Ae. albopictus varied amongst the climatic indicators used. Further field studies are needed to assess which climatic indicator is the most accurate in predicting regions suitable for Ae. albopictus survival in North America.

Framework for Automation of Hazard Log Management on Large Critical Projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vinerbi, Lorenzo; Babu, Arun P.

2016-08-01

Hazard log is a database of all risk management activities in a project. Maintaining its correctness and consistency on large safety/mission critical projects involving multiple vendors, suppliers, and partners is critical and challenging. IBM DOORS is one of the popular tool used for hazard management in space applications. However, not all stake- holders are familiar with it. Also, It is not always feasible to expect all stake-holders to provide correct and consistent hazard data.The current work describes the process and tools to simplify the process of hazard data collection on large projects. It demonstrates how the collected data from all stake-holders is merged to form the hazard log while ensuring data consistency and correctness.The data provided by all parties are collected using a template containing scripts. The scripts check for mistakes based on internal standards of company in charge of hazard management. The collected data is then subjected to merging in DOORS, which also contain scripts to check and import data to form the hazard log. The proposed tool has been applied to a mission critical project, and has been found to save time and reduce the number of mistakes while creating the hazard log. The use of automatic checks paves the way for correct tracking of risk and hazard analysis activities for large critical projects.

Adoption of Building Information Modelling in project planning risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mering, M. M.; Aminudin, E.; Chai, C. S.; Zakaria, R.; Tan, C. S.; Lee, Y. Y.; Redzuan, A. A.

2017-11-01

An efficient and effective risk management required a systematic and proper methodology besides knowledge and experience. However, if the risk management is not discussed from the starting of the project, this duty is notably complicated and no longer efficient. This paper presents the adoption of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in project planning risk management. The objectives is to identify the traditional risk management practices and its function, besides, determine the best function of BIM in risk management and investigating the efficiency of adopting BIM-based risk management during the project planning phase. In order to obtain data, a quantitative approach is adopted in this research. Based on data analysis, the lack of compliance with project requirements and failure to recognise risk and develop responses to opportunity are the risks occurred when traditional risk management is implemented. When using BIM in project planning, it works as the tracking of cost control and cash flow give impact on the project cycle to be completed on time. 5D cost estimation or cash flow modeling benefit risk management in planning, controlling and managing budget and cost reasonably. There were two factors that mostly benefit a BIM-based technology which were formwork plan with integrated fall plan and design for safety model check. By adopting risk management, potential risks linked with a project and acknowledging to those risks can be identified to reduce them to an acceptable extent. This means recognizing potential risks and avoiding threat by reducing their negative effects. The BIM-based risk management can enhance the planning process of construction projects. It benefits the construction players in various aspects. It is important to know the application of BIM-based risk management as it can be a lesson learnt to others to implement BIM and increase the quality of the project.

Analysis of interactions among barriers in project risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dandage, Rahul V.; Mantha, Shankar S.; Rane, Santosh B.; Bhoola, Vanita

2018-03-01

In the context of the scope, time, cost, and quality constraints, failure is not uncommon in project management. While small projects have 70% chances of success, large projects virtually have no chance of meeting the quadruple constraints. While there is no dearth of research on project risk management, the manifestation of barriers to project risk management is a less dwelt topic. The success of project management is oftentimes based on the understanding of barriers to effective risk management, application of appropriate risk management methodology, proactive leadership to avoid barriers, workers' attitude, adequate resources, organizational culture, and involvement of top management. This paper represents various risk categories and barriers to risk management in domestic and international projects through literature survey and feedback from project professionals. After analysing the various modelling methods used in project risk management literature, interpretive structural modelling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis have been used to analyse interactions among the barriers and prioritize them. The analysis indicates that lack of top management support, lack of formal training, and lack of addressing cultural differences are the high priority barriers, among many others.

Ozone risk for crops and pastures in present and future climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuhrer, Jürg

2009-02-01

Ozone is the most important regional-scale air pollutant causing risks for vegetation and human health in many parts of the world. Ozone impacts on yield and quality of crops and pastures depend on precursor emissions, atmospheric transport and leaf uptake and on the plant’s biochemical defence capacity, all of which are influenced by changing climatic conditions, increasing atmospheric CO2 and altered emission patterns. In this article, recent findings about ozone effects under current conditions and trends in regional ozone levels and in climatic factors affecting the plant’s sensitivity to ozone are reviewed in order to assess implications of these developments for future regional ozone risks. Based on pessimistic IPCC emission scenarios for many cropland regions elevated mean ozone levels in surface air are projected for 2050 and beyond as a result of both increasing emissions and positive effects of climate change on ozone formation and higher cumulative ozone exposure during an extended growing season resulting from increasing length and frequency of ozone episodes. At the same time, crop sensitivity may decline in areas where warming is accompanied by drying, such as southern and central Europe, in contrast to areas at higher latitudes where rapid warming is projected to occur in the absence of declining air and soil moisture. In regions with rapid industrialisation and population growth and with little regulatory action, ozone risks are projected to increase most dramatically, thus causing negative impacts major staple crops such as rice and wheat and, consequently, on food security. Crop improvement may be a way to increase crop cross-tolerance to co-occurring stresses from heat, drought and ozone. However, the review reveals that besides uncertainties in climate projections, parameters in models for ozone risk assessment are also uncertain and model improvements are necessary to better define specific targets for crop improvements, to identify regions most at risk from ozone in a future climate and to set robust effect-based ozone standards.

Climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins - assessing uncertainties and quantifying risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Ralf

2014-05-01

According to current climate projections, the Mediterranean area is at high risk for severe changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. With innovative scientific measures, integrated hydrological modeling and novel field geophysical field monitoring techniques, the FP7 project CLIMB (Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins; GA: 244151) assessed the impacts of climate change on the hydrology in seven basins in the Mediterranean area, in Italy, France, Turkey, Tunisia, Egypt and the Gaza Strip, and quantified uncertainties and risks for the main stakeholders of each test site. Intensive climate model auditing selected four regional climate models, whose data was bias corrected and downscaled to serve as climate forcing for a set of hydrological models in each site. The results of the multi-model hydro-climatic ensemble and socio-economic factor analysis were applied to develop a risk model building upon spatial vulnerability and risk assessment. Findings generally reveal an increasing risk for water resources management in the test sites, yet at different rates and severity in the investigated sectors, with highest impacts likely to occur in the transition months. Most important elements of this research include the following aspects: • Climate change contributes, yet in strong regional variation, to water scarcity in the Mediterranean; other factors, e.g. pollution or poor management practices, are regionally still dominant pressures on water resources. • Rain-fed agriculture needs to adapt to seasonal changes; stable or increasing productivity likely depends on additional irrigation. • Tourism could benefit in shoulder seasons, but may expect income losses in the summer peak season due to increasing heat stress. • Local & regional water managers and water users, lack, as yet, awareness of climate change induced risks; emerging focus areas are supplies of domestic drinking water, irrigation, hydropower and livestock. • Data and knowledge gaps in climate change impact and risk assessment are still widespread and ask for extended and coordinated monitoring programs. In order to discover, visualize and provide access the results of the project, the CLIMB-Portal has been established, serving as a platform for dissemination of project results, including communication and planning for local and regional stakeholders.

Asteroid Deflection Mission Design Considering On-Ground Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rumpf, Clemens; Lewis, Hugh G.; Atkinson, Peter

The deflection of an Earth-threatening asteroid requires high transparency of the mission design process. The goal of such a mission is to move the projected point of impact over the face of Earth until the asteroid is on a miss trajectory. During the course of deflection operations, the projected point of impact will match regions that were less affected before alteration of the asteroid’s trajectory. These regions are at risk of sustaining considerable damage if the deflecting spacecraft becomes non-operational. The projected impact point would remain where the deflection mission put it at the time of mission failure. Hence, all regions that are potentially affected by the deflection campaign need to be informed about this risk and should be involved in the mission design process. A mission design compromise will have to be found that is acceptable to all affected parties (Schweickart, 2004). A software tool that assesses the on-ground risk due to deflection missions is under development. It will allow to study the accumulated on-ground risk along the path of the projected impact point. The tool will help determine a deflection mission design that minimizes the on-ground casualty and damage risk due to deflection operations. Currently, the tool is capable of simulating asteroid trajectories through the solar system and considers gravitational forces between solar system bodies. A virtual asteroid may be placed at an arbitrary point in the simulation for analysis and manipulation. Furthermore, the tool determines the asteroid’s point of impact and provides an estimate of the population at risk. Validation has been conducted against the solar system ephemeris catalogue HORIZONS by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). Asteroids that are propagated over a period of 15 years show typical position discrepancies of 0.05 Earth radii relative to HORIZONS’ output. Ultimately, results from this research will aid in the identification of requirements for deflection missions that enable effective, minimum risk asteroid deflection. Schweickart, R. L. (2004). THE REAL DEFLECTION DILEMMA. In 2004 Planetary Defense Conference: Protecting Earth from Asteroids (pp. 1-6). Orange County, California. Retrieved from http://b612foundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Real_Deflection_Dilemma.pdf

Assessing corporate project impacts in changeable contexts: A human rights perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Salcito, Kendyl, E-mail: kendyl.salcito@unibas.ch; University of Basel, P.O. Box, CH-4003 Basel; NomoGaia, 1900 Wazee Street, Suite 303, Denver, CO 80202

Project-level impact assessment was originally conceived as a snapshot taken in advance of project implementation, contrasting current conditions with a likely future scenario involving a variety of predicted impacts. Current best practice guidance has encouraged a shift towards longitudinal assessments from the pre-project stage through the implementation and operating phases. Experience and study show, however, that assessment of infrastructure-intensive projects rarely endures past the project's construction phase. Negative consequences for environmental, social and health outcomes have been documented. Such consequences clarify the pressing need for longitudinal assessment in each of these domains, with human rights impact assessment (HRIA) as anmore » umbrella over, and critical augmentation of, environmental, social and health assessments. Project impacts on human rights are more closely linked to political, economic and other factors beyond immediate effects of a company's policy and action throughout the project lifecycle. Delineating these processes requires an adequate framework, with strategies for collecting longitudinal data, protocols that provide core information for impact assessment and guidance for adaptive mitigation strategies as project-related effects change over time. This article presents general principles for the design and implementation of sustained, longitudinal HRIA, based on experience assessing and responding to human rights impact in a uranium mining project in Malawi. The case study demonstrates the value of longitudinal assessment both for limiting corporate risk and improving human welfare. - Graphical abstract: Assessing changes in human rights condition as affected by both project and context, over time. - Highlights: • Corporate capital projects affect human rights in myriad ways. • Ongoing, longitudinal impact assessment techniques are needed. • We present an approach for conducting longitudinal human rights impact assessment. • Our methodology allows distinguishing corporate impacts from contextual changes. • Promptly observing context changes and impacts enables companies to react nimbly.« less

Mirabel: an integrated project for risk and cost/benefit analysis of peanut allergy.

PubMed

Crépet, A; Papadopoulos, A; Elegbede, C F; Ait-Dahmane, S; Loynet, C; Millet, G; Van Der Brempt, X; Bruyère, O; Marette, S; Moneret-Vautrin, D A

2015-03-01

Food allergy is a major public health issue. However, no regulatory measures exist when allergens are present at trace levels and the different risk components are poorly described. Thus, knowledge on exposure components such as the allergens present in foods and the consumption behaviour of allergic consumers and models to estimate the related risk need to be enriched. Mirabel proposes for the first time studying each risk component using an integrated approach in order to improve the quality of life of the allergic population. Field surveys were conducted in order to fill in the current gaps in unintentional allergen traces in food, allergic consumers' food behaviour, threshold doses of allergic reaction, allergy symptoms and severity. The aim is also to propose methodological and operational tools to quantify allergic risk, to test management scenarios and to produce a cost/benefit analysis. Medical data on the peanut allergies of 785 patients were collected in the MIRABEL survey and 443 patients answered the food consumption questionnaire. The population surveyed was mostly paediatric - 86% were children under 16 years of age, with a high percentage of males (60%). This project will generate tangible results on peanut allergen exposure and risk which could be used in future risk assessment work and particularly to provide science-based guidance to set up concentration limits for peanut traces on packages. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reduced Sexual Risk Behaviors Among Young Men of Color Who Have Sex with Men: Findings from the Community-Based Organization Behavioral Outcomes of Many Men, Many Voices (CBOP-3MV) Project.

PubMed

Stein, Renee; Shapatava, Ekaterine; Williams, Weston; Griffin, Tanesha; Bell, Kelly; Lyons, Bridget; Uhl, Gary

2015-11-01

In 2006, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funded community-based organizations (CBOs) to deliver Many Men, Many Voices (3MV) to young men of color who have sex with men. Although 3MV, a group-level behavioral intervention designed to reduce human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk behaviors of black men who have sex with men (MSM), has shown effectiveness when delivered in a controlled research environment, there is limited evidence that the intervention is associated with similar outcomes in "real world" settings. For the current project, CDC funded three CBOs to conduct outcome monitoring of the 3MV intervention to determine if young MSM of color report changes in HIV risk behaviors postintervention. Using a repeated measures design, risk behaviors were collected at baseline and again at 3 and 6 months postintervention. Changes in risk behaviors were assessed using generalized estimating equations. Participants (n = 337) reported decreases in sexual risk behaviors at both follow-up time points, such as sex without a condom, sex without a condom and multiple partners, and sex without a condom with serodiscordant or status unknown partners. Results suggest that 3MV may be an effective tool for reducing HIV risk behaviors in this critical target population.

HAMLET -Human Model MATROSHKA for Radiation Exposure Determination of Astronauts -Current status and results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reitz, Guenther; Berger, Thomas; Bilski, Pawel; Burmeister, Soenke; Labrenz, Johannes; Hager, Luke; Palfalvi, Jozsef K.; Hajek, Michael; Puchalska, Monika; Sihver, Lembit

The exploration of space as seen in specific projects from the European Space Agency (ESA) acts as groundwork for human long duration space missions. One of the main constraints for long duration human missions is radiation. The radiation load on astronauts and cosmonauts in space (as for the ISS) is a factor of 100 higher than the natural radiation on Earth and will further increase should humans travel to Mars. In preparation for long duration space missions it is important to evaluate the impact of space radiation in order to secure the safety of the astronauts and minimize their radiation risks. To determine the radiation risk on humans one has to measure the radiation doses to radiosensitive organs within the human body. One way to approach this is the ESA facility MATROSHKA (MTR), under the scientific and project lead of DLR. It is dedicated to determining the radiation load on astronauts within and outside the International Space Station (ISS), and was launched in January 2004. MTR is currently preparing for its fourth experimental phase inside the Japanese Experimental Module (JEM) in summer 2010. MTR, which mimics a human head and torso, is an anthropomorphic phantom containing over 6000 radiation detectors to determine the depth dose and organ dose distribution in the body. It is the largest international research initiative ever performed in the field of space dosimetry and combines the expertise of leading research institutions around the world, thereby generating a huge pool of data of potentially immense value for research. Aiming at optimal scientific exploitation, the FP7 project HAMLET aims to process and compile the data acquired individually by the participating laboratories of the MATROSHKA experiment. Based on experimental input from the MATROSHKA experiment phases as well as on radiation transport calculations, a three-dimensional model for the distribution of radiation dose in an astronaut's body will be built up. The scientific achievements contribute essentially to radiation risk estimations for future interplanetary space exploration by humans, putting them on a solid experimental and theoretical basis. The talk will give an overview of the current status of the MATROSHKA data evaluation and results and comparisons of the first three MTR experimental phases (MTR-1, 2A and 2B). The HAMLET project is funded by the European Commission under the EUs Seventh Frame-work Programme (FP7) under Project Nr: 218817 and coordinated by the German Aerospace Center (DLR) http://www-fp7-hamlet.eu

Development of a risk assessment tool for projecting individualized probabilities of developing breast cancer for Chinese women.

PubMed

Wang, Yuan; Gao, Ying; Battsend, Munkhzul; Chen, Kexin; Lu, Wenli; Wang, Yaogang

2014-11-01

The optimal approach regarding breast cancer screening for Chinese women is unclear due to the relative low incidence rate. A risk assessment tool may be useful for selection of high-risk subsets of population for mammography screening in low-incidence and resource-limited developing country. The odd ratios for six main risk factors of breast cancer were pooled by review manager after a systematic research of literature. Health risk appraisal (HRA) model was developed to predict an individual's risk of developing breast cancer in the next 5 years from current age. The performance of this HRA model was assessed based on a first-round screening database. Estimated risk of breast cancer increased with age. Increases in the 5-year risk of developing breast cancer were found with the existence of any of included risk factors. When individuals who had risk above median risk (3.3‰) were selected from the validation database, the sensitivity is 60.0% and the specificity is 47.8%. The unweighted area under the curve (AUC) was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.50-0.78). The risk-prediction model reported in this article is based on a combination of risk factors and shows good overall predictive power, but it is still weak at predicting which particular women will develop the disease. It would be very helpful for the improvement of a current model if more population-based prospective follow-up studies were used for the validation.

Blood transfusion sampling and a greater role for error recovery.

PubMed

Oldham, Jane

Patient identification errors in pre-transfusion blood sampling ('wrong blood in tube') are a persistent area of risk. These errors can potentially result in life-threatening complications. Current measures to address root causes of incidents and near misses have not resolved this problem and there is a need to look afresh at this issue. PROJECT PURPOSE: This narrative review of the literature is part of a wider system-improvement project designed to explore and seek a better understanding of the factors that contribute to transfusion sampling error as a prerequisite to examining current and potential approaches to error reduction. A broad search of the literature was undertaken to identify themes relating to this phenomenon. KEY DISCOVERIES: Two key themes emerged from the literature. Firstly, despite multi-faceted causes of error, the consistent element is the ever-present potential for human error. Secondly, current focus on error prevention could potentially be augmented with greater attention to error recovery. Exploring ways in which clinical staff taking samples might learn how to better identify their own errors is proposed to add to current safety initiatives.

Effective Risk Management in Innovative Projects: A Case Study of the Construction of Energy-efficient, Sustainable Building of the Laboratory of Intelligent Building in Cracow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krechowicz, Maria

2017-10-01

Many construction projects fail to meet deadlines or they exceed the assumed budget. This scenario is particularly common in the case of innovative projects, in which too late identification of a high risk of delays and exceeding the assumed costs makes a potentially profitable project untenable. A high risk level, far exceeding the level of risk in standard non-innovative projects, is a characteristic feature of the realization phase of innovative projects. This is associated not only with greater complexity of the design and construction phases, but also with the problems with application of new technologies and prototype solutions, lack of qualified personnel with suitable expertise in specialized areas, and with the ability to properly identify the gaps between available and required knowledge and skills. This paper discusses the process of effective risk management in innovative projects on the example of the realization phase of an innovative, energy-efficient and sustainable building of the Laboratory of Intelligent Building in Cracow - DLJM Lab, from the point of view of DORBUD S.A., its general contractor. In this paper, a new approach to risk management process for innovative construction projects is proposed. Risk management process was divided into five stages: gathering information, identification of the important unwanted events, first risk assessment, development and choice of risk reaction strategies, assessment of the residual risk after introducing risk reactions. 18 unwanted events in an innovative construction project were identified. The first risk assessment was carried out using two-parametric risk matrix, in which the probability of unwanted event occurrence and its consequences were analysed. Three levels of risks were defined: tolerable, controlled and uncontrolled. Risk reactions to each defined unwanted event were developed. The following risk reaction types were considered: risk retention, risk reduction, risk transfer and risk elimination. Three-parametric risk matrix was developed to make it possible to assess risk after implementing risk reactions. The possibility of implementing risk management was inversely proportional to the probability of unwanted event occurrence and its contribution to the project outcome. Introducing this risk management strategy allowed to significantly reduce the risk of the innovative construction project. It proved to be an effective tool to reduce risk to an acceptable level. It had a significant contribution to carrying out the project within the assumed time, budget and quality standards.

Proposed Project Selection Method for Human Support Research and Technology Development (HSR&TD)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry

2005-01-01

The purpose of HSR&TD is to deliver human support technologies to the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) that will be selected for future missions. This requires identifying promising candidate technologies and advancing them in technology readiness until they are acceptable. HSR&TD must select an may of technology development projects, guide them, and either terminate or continue them, so as to maximize the resulting number of usable advanced human support technologies. This paper proposes an effective project scoring methodology to support managing the HSR&TD project portfolio. Researchers strongly disagree as to what are the best technology project selection methods, or even if there are any proven ones. Technology development is risky and outstanding achievements are rare and unpredictable. There is no simple formula for success. Organizations that are satisfied with their project selection approach typically use a mix of financial, strategic, and scoring methods in an open, established, explicit, formal process. This approach helps to build consensus and develop management insight. It encourages better project proposals by clarifying the desired project attributes. We propose a project scoring technique based on a method previously used in a federal laboratory and supported by recent research. Projects are ranked by their perceived relevance, risk, and return - a new 3 R's. Relevance is the degree to which the project objective supports the HSR&TD goal of developing usable advanced human support technologies. Risk is the estimated probability that the project will achieve its specific objective. Return is the reduction in mission life cycle cost obtained if the project is successful. If the project objective technology performs a new function with no current cost, its return is the estimated cash value of performing the new function. The proposed project selection scoring method includes definitions of the criteria, a project evaluation questionnaire, and a scoring formula.

Potential effects of climate change on the distribution of waterbirds in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Valerie; Powell, Abby N.

2012-01-01

Wetland-dependent birds are considered to be at particularly high risk for negative climate change effects. Current and future distributions of American Bittern (Botaurus lentiginosus), American Coot (Fulica americana), Black Tern (Chlidonias niger), Pied-billed Grebe (Podilymbus podiceps) and Sora (Porzana carolina), five waterbird species common in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), were predicted using species distribution models (SDMs) in combination with climate data that projected a drier future for the PPR. Regional-scale SDMs were created for the U.S. PPR using breeding bird survey occurrence records for 1971-2000 and wetland and climate parameters. For each waterbird species, current distribution and four potential future distributions were predicted: all combinations of two Global Circulation Models and two emissions scenarios. Averaged for all five species, the ensemble range reduction was 64%. However, projected range losses for individual species varied widely with Sora and Black Tern projected to lose close to 100% and American Bittern 29% of their current range. Future distributions were also projected to a hypothetical landscape where wetlands were numerous and constant to highlight areas suitable as conservation reserves under a drier future climate. The ensemble model indicated that northeastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota would be the best areas for conservation reserves within the U.S. PPR under the modeled conditions.

Burden of Type 2 Diabetes in Mexico: Past, Current and Future Prevalence and Incidence Rates

PubMed Central

Meza, Rafael; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh; Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba; Reynoso-Noverón, Nancy; Palacio-Mejia, Lina Sofia; Lazcano-Ponce, Eduardo; Hernández-Ávila, Mauricio

2015-01-01

Introduction Mexico diabetes prevalence has increased dramatically in recent years. However, no national incidence estimates exist, hampering the assessment of diabetes trends and precluding the development of burden of disease analyses to inform public health policy decision-making. Here we provide evidence regarding current magnitude of diabetes in Mexico and its future trends. Methods We used data from the Mexico National Health and Nutrition Survey, and age-period-cohort models to estimate prevalence and incidence of self-reported diagnosed diabetes by age, sex, calendar-year (1960–2012), and birth-cohort (1920–1980). We project future rates under three alternative incidence scenarios using demographic projections of the Mexican population from 2010–2050 and a Multi-cohort Diabetes Markov Model. Results Adult (ages 20+) diagnosed diabetes prevalence in Mexico increased from 7% to 8.9% from 2006 to 2012. Diabetes prevalence increases with age, peaking around ages 65–68 to then decrease. Age-specific incidence follows similar patterns, but peaks around ages 57–59. We estimate that diagnosed diabetes incidence increased exponentially during 1960–2012, roughly doubling every 10 years. Projected rates under three age-specific incidence scenarios suggest diabetes prevalence among adults (ages 20+) may reach 13.7–22.5% by 2050, affecting 15–25 million individuals, with a lifetime risk of 1 in 3 to 1 in 2. Conclusions Diabetes prevalence in Mexico will continue to increase even if current incidence rates remain unchanged. Continued implementation of policies to reduce obesity rates, increase physical activity, and improve population diet, in tandem with diabetes surveillance and other risk control measures is paramount to substantially reduce the burden of diabetes in Mexico. PMID:26546108

Burden of type 2 diabetes in Mexico: past, current and future prevalence and incidence rates.

PubMed

Meza, Rafael; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh; Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba; Reynoso-Noverón, Nancy; Palacio-Mejia, Lina Sofia; Lazcano-Ponce, Eduardo; Hernández-Ávila, Mauricio

2015-12-01

Mexico diabetes prevalence has increased dramatically in recent years. However, no national incidence estimates exist, hampering the assessment of diabetes trends and precluding the development of burden of disease analyses to inform public health policy decision-making. Here we provide evidence regarding current magnitude of diabetes in Mexico and its future trends. We used data from the Mexico National Health and Nutrition Survey, and age-period-cohort models to estimate prevalence and incidence of self-reported diagnosed diabetes by age, sex, calendar-year (1960-2012), and birth-cohort (1920-1980). We project future rates under three alternative incidence scenarios using demographic projections of the Mexican population from 2010-2050 and a Multi-cohort Diabetes Markov Model. Adult (ages 20+) diagnosed diabetes prevalence in Mexico increased from 7% to 8.9% from 2006 to 2012. Diabetes prevalence increases with age, peaking around ages 65-68 to then decrease. Age-specific incidence follows similar patterns, but peaks around ages 57-59. We estimate that diagnosed diabetes incidence increased exponentially during 1960-2012, roughly doubling every 10 years. Projected rates under three age-specific incidence scenarios suggest diabetes prevalence among adults (ages 20+) may reach 13.7-22.5% by 2050, affecting 15-25 million individuals, with a lifetime risk of 1 in 3 to 1 in 2. Diabetes prevalence in Mexico will continue to increase even if current incidence rates remain unchanged. Continued implementation of policies to reduce obesity rates, increase physical activity, and improve population diet, in tandem with diabetes surveillance and other risk control measures is paramount to substantially reduce the burden of diabetes in Mexico. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Design and Development of a 200-kW Turbo-Electric Distributed Propulsion Testbed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Papathakis, Kurt V.

2017-01-01

There a few NASA funded electric and hybrid electric projects from different NASA Centers, including the NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center (AFRC) (Edwards, California). Each project identifies a specific technology gap that is currently inhibiting the growth and proliferation of relevant technologies in commercial aviation. This paper describes the design and development of a turbo-electric distributed propulsion (TeDP) hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation bench, which is a test bed for discovering turbo-electric control, distributed electric control, power management control, and integration competencies while providing risk mitigation for future turbo-electric flying demonstrators.

Environmental risks of abandoning a mining project already started: Romaltyn Mining Baia Mare

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bud, I.; Duma, S.; Gusat, D.; Pasca, I.; Bud, A.

2016-08-01

The history of mining activity, which has been the economy engine in the region and has contributed to the formation of many localities, has been deleted too quickly. During all this time, in the world countries which have invested in mining sector have made considerable progress. The paper brings in question, within the framework of the theme, the implications arising from the abandonment of the Romaltyn project which mainly affects two objectives: Central Tailing Pond and Aurul Tailing Pond. The Central tailing pond constitutes an unfortunate source of pollution for groundwater, surface water, soil and air on a large area around it, because its location upstream of Baia Mare city and in the vicinity of a agricultural production zone. The consequences of the tailing pond maintenance in the current situation are: presence of sclerozing dust with sulphurs content scattered over large agricultural area; soil pollution by acidification; heavy metals release which enter in food chain and will be found in food. The final disposal of the pollution source is the only solution really safe in long term. Abandoning Aurul tailing pond in the current phase of construction involves high environmental risks. Taking in consideration the potential and the huge soil volume which are necessary for rehabilitation, isolation and rehabilitation of this area involve extremely high costs and the realization is, technically, almost impossible in the current context.

Workshop on Countering Space Adaptation with Exercise: Current Issues

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, Bernard A. (Editor); Siconolfi, Steven F. (Editor)

1994-01-01

The proceedings represent an update to the problems associated with living and working in space and the possible impact exercise would have on helping reduce risk. The meeting provided a forum for discussions and debates on contemporary issues in exercise science and medicine as they relate to manned space flight with outside investigators. This meeting also afforded an opportunity to introduce the current status of the Exercise Countermeasures Project (ECP) science investigations and inflight hardware and software development. In addition, techniques for physiological monitoring and the development of various microgravity countermeasures were discussed.

Going Deep...Putting the Undergound Dimension to Use

ScienceCinema

Laughton, Chris

2017-12-09

Underground construction can offer durable and environmentally-sound solutions to many of societies more pressing needs. The talk will identify some common uses for underground space and discuss current construction techniques used to mine in soils and rock. Examples of successful underground construction projects will demonstrate the advantages that the underground site can offer. In addition, insight will be provided into the nature of the risks run when working with a construction material (the ground) that cannot be made to order, nor precisely defined by the investigative processes currently at our disposal.

Managing U.S. climate risk through mitigation: Insights from the American Climate Prospectus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, R. E., III; Hsiang, S. M.; Houser, T.; Larsen, K.; Rasmussen, D. M., Jr.; Jina, A.; Rising, J.; Delgado, M.; Mohan, S.; Muir-Wood, R.; Wilson, P. S.

2014-12-01

The American Climate Prospectus (ACP), the technical analysis underlying the Risky Business project, quantitatively assessed the economic risks posed to the United States by six categories of climate change impacts: crop yield, energy demand, coastal storm damage, criminal activity, labor productivity, and mortality [1]. At a national level, measured by impact on gross domestic product, increased mortality and decreased labor productivity pose the large risks, followed by increased energy demand and coastal damages. Changes in crop yield and crime have smaller impacts. The ACP was not intended to conduct a benefit-cost analysis of climate change mitigation. It assessed the economic consequences of future impacts on an economy with a structure equivalent to that of the current economy, not accounting for socio-economic development and adaptation, and did not assess the cost of mitigation. One of its primary goals was to inform adaptation decisions that are conventionally considered 'endogenous' in economic analyses of climate change. Nonetheless, its results provide insight into the potential of mitigation to manage climate risk. Differences between RCP 8.5 (moderately-high business-as-usual emissions), RCP 4.5 (moderate mitigation) and RCP 2.6 (extremely strong mitigation) are not apparent until mid-century and become significant only late in the century. For all impacts except coastal damages, mitigation significantly reduces uncertainty in late-century impact estimates. Nationally, mitigation significantly and monotonically reduces median projected labor productivity losses and violent crime. Switching from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 also significantly reduces median projections of mortality and energy demand, but the domestic value to the U.S. of further mitigation to RCP 2.6 is less clear. The marginal benefits decline in part because some regions of the country (especially the Northwest) may experience increased crop yields, reduced mortality, and reduced energy demand under all RCPs. Because of the slow response time of sea level to change in emissions, the coastal risk reduction in the current century from mitigation is least clear. References: [1] T. Houser et al. (2014), American Climate Prospectus, www.climateprospectus.org.

CTC Sentinel. Volume 2, Issue 10

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-10-01

of Zulfiqar Mehsud. He married two women , one in South Waziristan from the Mehsud tribe and a second wife, from the Mamunzai tribe, in Orakzai...the Centre of International Studies at the University of Cambridge. She is currently running a project on radicalization in North Africa that is... of the conflict. Dr. Thomas A . Marks is a political risk consultant based in Honolulu and the

The Emerging Crisis: Current and Projected Status of Children in the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis, William E.; McCaul, Edward J.

This paper synthesizes data from recent reports about the well-being of U.S. children and youth, policies and proposals for enhancing at-risk children's quality of life, critical questions about the impact of these policies and proposals on all children and their families, trade-offs needed if proposed policies to assist disadvantaged children and…

Erosion risk assessment along coastlines, rivers, and lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eidsvig, Unni; Harbitz, Carl B.; Issler, Dieter; Forsberg, Carl Fredrik; Høydal, Øyvind A.; Glimsdal, Sylfest; Frauenfelder, Regula

2017-04-01

An effect of the expected climate changes is that densely populated areas will be more exposed to natural hazards. There is a rising concern about geotechnical challenges associated with the transition zone between water and land, in particular with regard to erosion. This needs to be considered as part of the climate adaptation strategies in the society and applies to both coastal settlements and to settlements along rivers. Climate change, as reported by the IPCC, includes global warming, sea level rise as well as more precipitation, both with respect to intensity and frequency. A larger number of cities are expected to be affected by floods and with higher frequency. With large floods, the current speed in rivers and hence their erosion potential increases, leading to scouring along riverbanks, where important transport routes and other infrastructure are often located. The frequency and intensity of storm surges are expected to increase, as well as the risk of coastal erosion. In steep terrain, the likelihood of debris flows increases. The project "Multi-scale Erosion Risk under Climate Change" was initiated to prepare for such challenges as well as local climate adaptation. The project is an internal NGI strategic project funded by the Research Council of Norway for the period 2017 - 2019. The project aims to investigate relevant erosive and mass-flow processes in the coastal zone, along rivers, and in lakes. Further, the knowledge and tools to be developed within the project aim to reduce the risk associated with these processes, through appropriate land-use planning and innovative mitigation measures. The project is thematically subdivided into the following five work packages: WP1: Modelling of erosion processes in rivers, at the coast and in mass movements WP2: Floods, debris flows and sediment mobility in complex topography WP3: Coastal hydrodynamic processes WP4: Monitoring, warning and non-physical mitigation measures WP5: Dissemination and knowledge sharing In our contribution, we will give an overview of the ideas and the background of the project and present the first preliminary results.

Using ecological forecasting of future vegetation transition and fire frequency change in the Sierra Nevada to assess fire management strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorne, J. H.; Schwartz, M. W.; Holguin, A. J.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Folger, K.; Nydick, K.

2013-12-01

Ecological systems may respond in complex manners as climate change progresses. Among the responses, site-level climate conditions may cause a shift in vegetation due to the physiological tolerances of plant species, and the fire return interval may change. Natural resource managers challenged with maintaining ecosystem health need a way to forecast how these processes may affect every location, in order to determine appropriate management actions and prioritize locations for interventions. We integrated climate change-driven vegetation type transitions with projected change in fire frequency for 45,203 km2 of the southern Sierra Nevada, California, containing over 10 land management agencies as well as private lands. This Magnitude of Change (MOC) approach involves classing vegetation types in current time according to their climate envelopes, and identifying which sites will in the future have climates beyond what that vegetation currently occurs in. Independently, fire models are used to determine the change in fire frequency for each site. We examined 82 vegetation types with >50 grid cell occurrences. We found iconic resources such as the giant sequoia, lower slope oak woodlands, and high elevation conifer forests are projected as highly vulnerable by models that project a warmer drier future, but not as much by models that project a warmer future that is not drier than current conditions. Further, there were strongly divergent vulnerabilities of these forest types across land ownership (National Parks versus US Forest Service lands), and by GCM. For example, of 50 giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum) groves and complexes, all but 3 (on Sierra National Forest) were in the 2 highest levels of risk of climate and fire under the GFDL A2 projection, while 15 groves with low-to-moderate risk were found on both the National Parks and National Forests 18 in the 2 under PCM A2. Landscape projections of potential MOC suggest that the region is likely to experience strong upslope shifting of open grassland, chaparral and hardwood types, which may be initiated by increased fire frequencies, particularly where fires have not recently burned within normal fire recurrence interval departures (FRID). An evaluation of four fire management strategies (business as usual; resist change; foster orderly change; protect vital resources) across four combinations of future climate and fire frequency found that no single management strategy was uniformly successful in protecting critical resources across the range of future conditions examined. This limitation is somewhat driven by current management constraints on the amount of management available to resource managers, which suggests management will need to use a triage approach to application of proactive fire management strategies, wherein MOC landscape projections can be used in decision support.

Hazard identification by methods of animal-based toxicology.

PubMed

Barlow, S M; Greig, J B; Bridges, J W; Carere, A; Carpy, A J M; Galli, C L; Kleiner, J; Knudsen, I; Koëter, H B W M; Levy, L S; Madsen, C; Mayer, S; Narbonne, J-F; Pfannkuch, F; Prodanchuk, M G; Smith, M R; Steinberg, P

2002-01-01

This paper is one of several prepared under the project "Food Safety In Europe: Risk Assessment of Chemicals in Food and Diet" (FOSIE), a European Commission Concerted Action Programme, organised by the International Life Sciences Institute, Europe (ILSI). The aim of the FOSIE project is to review the current state of the science of risk assessment of chemicals in food and diet, by consideration of the four stages of risk assessment, that is, hazard identification, hazard characterisation, exposure assessment and risk characterisation. The contribution of animal-based methods in toxicology to hazard identification of chemicals in food and diet is discussed. The importance of first applying existing technical and chemical knowledge to the design of safety testing programs for food chemicals is emphasised. There is consideration of the presently available and commonly used toxicity testing approaches and methodologies, including acute and repeated dose toxicity, reproductive and developmental toxicity, neurotoxicity, genotoxicity, carcinogenicity, immunotoxicity and food allergy. They are considered from the perspective of whether they are appropriate for assessing food chemicals and whether they are adequate to detect currently known or anticipated hazards from food. Gaps in knowledge and future research needs are identified; research on these could lead to improvements in the methods of hazard identification for food chemicals. The potential impact of some emerging techniques and toxicological issues on hazard identification for food chemicals, such as new measurement techniques, the use of transgenic animals, assessment of hormone balance and the possibilities for conducting studies in which common human diseases have been modelled, is also considered.

U.S. Funding is insufficient to address the human health impacts of and public health responses to climate variability and change.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie L; Balbus, John; Kinney, Patrick L; Lipp, Erin; Mills, David; O'Neill, Marie S; Wilson, Mark L

2009-06-01

The need to identify and try to prevent adverse health impacts of climate change has risen to the forefront of climate change policy debates and become a top priority of the public health community. Given the observed and projected changes in climate and weather patterns, their current and anticipated health impacts, and the significant degree of regulatory discussion underway in the U.S. government, it is reasonable to determine the extent of federal investment in research to understand, avoid, prepare for, and respond to the human health impacts of climate change in the United States. In this commentary we summarize the health risks of climate change in the United States and examine the extent of federal funding devoted to understanding, avoiding, preparing for, and responding to the human health risks of climate change. Future climate change is projected to exacerbate various current health problems, including heat-related mortality, diarrheal diseases, and diseases associated with exposure to ozone and aeroallergens. Demographic trends and geophysical and socioeconomic factors could increase overall vulnerability. Despite these risks, extramural federal funding of climate change and health research is estimated to be < $3 million per year. Given the real risks that climate change poses for U.S. populations, the National Institutes of Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and other agencies need to have robust intramural and extramural programs, with funding of > $200 million annually. Oversight of the size and priorities of these programs could be provided by a standing committee within the National Academy of Sciences.

Interdisciplinary Postdoctoral Training in Global Health through a Novel Joint Project for Trainees from Diverse Disciplines: Benefits, Risks, and Observations

PubMed Central

Oberhelman, Richard A.; Huaynate, Cynthia Anticona; Correa, Malena; Malpartida, Holger Mayta; Pajuelo, Monica; Paz-Soldan, Valerie A.; Gilman, Robert H.; Zimic, Mirko; Murphy, Laura; Belizan, Jose

2017-01-01

Postdoctoral training programs are usually highly individualized arrangements between trainees and a limited number of senior mentors in their field, an approach that contrasts with current trends in public health education that promote interdisciplinary training to spur innovation. Herein, we describe an alternative model for postdoctoral training for a group of fellows from distinct disciplines. Fellows work with mentors from diverse fields to create a joint research project or a group of complementary projects, with the goal of developing a new device, intervention, or innovation to address a global health problem. The perceived benefits, challenges, and limitations of this team approach to interdisciplinary postdoctoral training are presented. PMID:27821694

Science Goals in Radiation Protection for Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francs A.

2008-01-01

Space radiation presents major challenges to future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Health risks of concern include cancer, degenerative and performance risks to the central nervous system, heart and lens, and the acute radiation syndromes. The galactic cosmic rays (GCR) contain high energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, which have been shown to cause qualitatively distinct biological damage compared to terresterial radiation, such as X-rays or gamma-rays, causing risk estimates to be highly uncertain. The biological effects of solar particle events (SPE) are similar to terresterial radiation except for their biological dose-rate modifiers; however the onset and size of SPEs are difficult to predict. The high energies of GCR reduce the effectiveness of shielding, while SPE s can be shielded however the current gap in radiobiological knowledge hinders optimization. Methods used to project risks on Earth must be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting health risks from space radiation, and thus impact mission requirements and costs. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies probabilistic risk assessments and uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts and to mission design. The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in radiation risk projection models. Exploration science goals in radiation protection are centered on ground-based research to achieve the necessary biological knowledge, and in the development of new technologies to improve SPE monitoring and optimize shielding. Radiobiology research is centered on a ground based program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and HZE nuclei at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) located at DoE s Brookhaven National Laboratory in Upton, NY. We describe recent NSRL results that are closing the knowledge gap in HZE radiobiology and improving exploration risk estimates. Linking probabilistic risk assessment to research goals makes it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, which include the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits, and probabilistic assessments of the effectiveness of design trade spaces such as material type, mass, solar cycle, crew selection criteria, and biological countermeasures. New research in SPE alert and risk assessment, individual radiation sensitivity, and biological countermeasure development are described.

The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smolka, A. J.

2015-12-01

Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all projects are undertaken with strong involvement of local scientific and risk reduction communities. Open-source software and careful documentation of the methodologies create full transparency of the modelling process, so that results can be reproduced any time by third parties.

Risk assessment framework on time impact: Infrastructure projects in soft soil during construction stage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Low, W. W.; Wong, K. S.; Lee, J. L.

2018-04-01

With the growth of economy and population, there is an increase in infrastructure construction projects. As such, it is unavoidable to have construction projects on soft soil. Without proper risk management plan, construction projects are vulnerable to different types of risks which will have negative impact on project’s time, cost and quality. Literature review showed that little or none of the research is focused on the risk assessment on the infrastructure project in soft soil. Hence, the aim of this research is to propose a risk assessment framework in infrastructure projects in soft soil during the construction stage. This research was focused on the impact of risks on project time and internal risk factors. The research method was Analytical Hierarchy Process and the sample population was experienced industry experts who have experience in infrastructure projects. Analysis was completed and result showed that for internal factors, the five most significant risks on time element are lack of special equipment, potential contractual disputes and claims, shortage of skilled workers, delay/lack of materials supply, and insolvency of contractor/sub-contractor. Results indicated that resources risk factor play a critical role on project time frame in infrastructure projects in soft soil during the construction stage.

Projecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: A case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wood, Nathan J.; Soulard, Christopher E.; Wilson, Tamara

2017-01-01

Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes. To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban, residential, and rural), households, and residents over a 50-year period (2011–2061) along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts. We created a spatially explicit, land use/land cover, state-and-transition simulation model to project future developed land use based on historical development trends. We then compared our development projection results to tsunami-hazard zones associated with a Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) earthquake. Changes in tsunami-hazard exposure by 2061 were estimated for 50 incorporated cities, 7 tribal reservations, and 17 counties relative to current (2011) estimates. Across the region, 2061 population exposure in tsunami-hazard zones was projected to increase by 3880 households and 6940 residents. The top ten communities with highest population exposure to CSZ-related tsunamis in 2011 are projected to remain the areas with the highest population exposure by 2061. The largest net population increases in tsunami-hazard zones were projected in the unincorporated portions of several counties, including Skagit, Coos, and Humboldt. Land-change simulation modeling of projected future development serves as an exploratory tool aimed at helping local governments understand the hazard-exposure implications of community growth and to include this knowledge in risk-reduction planning.

9th Annual CMMI Technology Conference and User Group-Tuesday

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-11-19

evaluating and quantifying risk likelihood and severity risks. Step 4 Project defines thresholds for each risk category. Step 5 Project defines bounds on the...defines consistent criteria for evaluating and quantifying risk likelihood and severity risks in the Risk Management Plan. Step 4 Project defines

Assessment of the cardiovascular risk and physical activity of individuals exercising at a public park in the city of são paulo.

PubMed

Forjaz, Cláudia L M; Tinucci, Taís; Bartholomeu, Teresa; Fernandes, Tiago E M; Casagrande, Vivian; Massucato, José Geraldo

2002-07-01

Physical exercise helps to prevent cardiovascular disorders. Campaigns promoting exercise have taken many people to the parks of our city. The most appropriate exercise for preventing cardiovascular disorders is the aerobic modality; inappropriate exercise acutely increases cardiovascular risk, especially in individuals at higher risk. Therefore, assessing the cardiovascular risk of these individuals and their physical activities is of practical value. In the Parque Fernando Costa, we carried out the project "Exercício e Coração" (Exercise and Heart) involving 226 individuals. Assessment of the cardiovascular risk and of the physical activity practiced by the individuals exercising at that park was performed with a questionnaire and measurement of the following parameters: blood pressure, weight, height, and waist/hip ratio. The individuals were lectured on the benefits provided by exercise and how to correctly exercise. Each participant received a customized exercise prescription. In regard to risk, 43% of the individuals had health problems and 7% of the healthy individuals had symptoms that could be attributed to heart disorders. High blood pressure was observed in a large amount of the population. In regard to the adequacy of the physical activity, the individuals exercised properly. The project was well accepted, because the participants not only appreciated the initiative, but also reported altering their exercise habits after taking part in the project. Data obtained in the current study point to the need to be more careful in assessing the health of individuals who exercise at parks, suggesting that city parks should have a sector designated for assessing and guiding physical activity.

EFEHR - the European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk: beyond the web-platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danciu, Laurentiu; Wiemer, Stefan; Haslinger, Florian; Kastli, Philipp; Giardini, Domenico

2017-04-01

European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (EEFEHR) represents the sustainable community resource for seismic hazard and risk in Europe. The EFEHR web platform is the main gateway to access data, models and tools as well as provide expertise relevant for assessment of seismic hazard and risk. The main services (databases and web-platform) are hosted at ETH Zurich and operated by the Swiss Seismological Service (Schweizerischer Erdbebendienst SED). EFEHR web-portal (www.efehr.org) collects and displays (i) harmonized datasets necessary for hazard and risk modeling, e.g. seismic catalogues, fault compilations, site amplifications, vulnerabilities, inventories; (ii) extensive seismic hazard products, namely hazard curves, uniform hazard spectra and maps for national and regional assessments. (ii) standardized configuration files for re-computing the regional seismic hazard models; (iv) relevant documentation of harmonized datasets, models and web-services. Today, EFEHR distributes full output of the 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model, ESHM13, as developed within the SHARE project (http://www.share-eu.org/); the latest results of the 2014 Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME14), derived within the EMME Project (www.emme-gem.org); the 2001 Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Project (GSHAP) results and the 2015 updates of the Swiss Seismic Hazard. New datasets related to either seismic hazard or risk will be incorporated as they become available. We present the currents status of the EFEHR platform, with focus on the challenges, summaries of the up-to-date datasets, user experience and feedback, as well as the roadmap to future technological innovation beyond the web-platform development. We also show the new services foreseen to fully integrate with the seismological core services of European Plate Observing System (EPOS).

Why Don't They Just Give Us Money? Project Cost Estimating and Cost Reporting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comstock, Douglas A.; Van Wychen, Kristin; Zimmerman, Mary Beth

2015-01-01

Successful projects require an integrated approach to managing cost, schedule, and risk. This is especially true for complex, multi-year projects involving multiple organizations. To explore solutions and leverage valuable lessons learned, NASA's Virtual Project Management Challenge will kick off a three-part series examining some of the challenges faced by project and program managers when it comes to managing these important elements. In this first session of the series, we will look at cost management, with an emphasis on the critical roles of cost estimating and cost reporting. By taking a proactive approach to both of these activities, project managers can better control life cycle costs, maintain stakeholder confidence, and protect other current and future projects in the organization's portfolio. Speakers will be Doug Comstock, Director of NASA's Cost Analysis Division, Kristin Van Wychen, Senior Analyst in the GAO Acquisition and Sourcing Management Team, and Mary Beth Zimmerman, Branch Chief for NASA's Portfolio Analysis Branch, Strategic Investments Division. Moderator Ramien Pierre is from NASA's Academy for Program/Project and Engineering Leadership (APPEL).

ILSI Europe's Food Allergy Task Force: From Defining the Hazard to Assessing the Risk from Food Allergens.

PubMed

Crevel, René R W; Ronsmans, Stefan; Marsaux, Cyril F M; Bánáti, Diána

2018-01-01

The International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI) Europe Food Allergy Task Force was founded in response to early public concerns about the growing impact of food allergies almost coincidentally with the publication of the 1995 Food and Agriculture Organization-World Health Organization Technical Consultation on Food Allergies. In line with ILSI principles aimed to foster collaboration between stakeholders to promote consensus on science-based approaches to food safety and nutrition, the task force has played a central role since then in the development of risk assessment for food allergens. This ranged from consideration of the criteria to be applied to identifying allergens of public health concern through methodologies to determine the relationship between dose and the proportion of allergic individuals reacting, as well as the nature of the observed responses. The task force also promoted the application of novel, probabilistic risk assessment methods to better delineate the impact of benchmarks, such as reference doses, and actively participated in major European food allergy projects, such as EUROPREVALL, the European Union (EU)-funded project "The prevalence, cost and basis of food allergy across Europe;" and iFAAM, "Integrated approaches to food allergen and allergy risk management," also an EU-funded project. Over the years, the task force's work has evolved as answers to initial questions raised further issues: Its current work program includes a review of analytical methods and how different ones can best be deployed given their strengths and limitations. Another activity, which has just commenced, aims to develop a framework for stakeholders to achieve consensus on acceptable risk.

GIS and local knowledge in disaster management: a case study of flood risk mapping in Viet Nam.

PubMed

Tran, Phong; Shaw, Rajib; Chantry, Guillaume; Norton, John

2009-03-01

Linking community knowledge with modern techniques to record and analyse risk related data is one way of engaging and mobilising community capacity. This paper discusses the use of the Geographic Information System (GIS) at the local level and the need for integrating modern technology and indigenous knowledge into disaster management. It suggests a way to mobilise available human and technical resources in order to strengthen a good partnership between local communities and local and national institutions. The paper also analyses the current vulnerability of two communes by correlating hazard risk and loss/damage caused by disasters and the contribution that domestic risk maps in the community can make to reduce this risk. The disadvantages, advantages and lessons learned from the GIS flood risk mapping project are presented through the case study of the Quang Tho Commune in Thua Thien Hue province, central Viet Nam.

Enhanced Capabilities for Subcritical Experiments (ECSE) Risk Management Plan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Urban, Mary Elizabeth

Risk is a factor, element, constraint, or course of action that introduces an uncertainty of outcome that could impact project objectives. Risk is an inherent part of all activities, whether the activity is simple and small, or large and complex. Risk management is a process that identifies, evaluates, handles, and monitors risks that have the potential to affect project success. The risk management process spans the entire project, from its initiation to its successful completion and closeout, including both technical and programmatic (non-technical) risks. This Risk Management Plan (RMP) defines the process to be used for identifying, evaluating, handling, andmore » monitoring risks as part of the overall management of the Enhanced Capabilities for Subcritical Experiments (ECSE) ‘Project’. Given the changing nature of the project environment, risk management is essentially an ongoing and iterative process, which applies the best efforts of a knowledgeable project staff to a suite of focused and prioritized concerns. The risk management process itself must be continually applied throughout the project life cycle. This document was prepared in accordance with DOE O 413.3B, Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets, its associated guide for risk management DOE G 413.3-7, Risk Management Guide, and LANL ADPM AP-350-204, Risk and Opportunity Management.« less

Estimating the risk of Amazonian forest dieback.

PubMed

Rammig, Anja; Jupp, Tim; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tietjen, Britta; Heinke, Jens; Ostberg, Sebastian; Lucht, Wolfgang; Cramer, Wolfgang; Cox, Peter

2010-08-01

*Climate change will very likely affect most forests in Amazonia during the course of the 21st century, but the direction and intensity of the change are uncertain, in part because of differences in rainfall projections. In order to constrain this uncertainty, we estimate the probability for biomass change in Amazonia on the basis of rainfall projections that are weighted by climate model performance for current conditions. *We estimate the risk of forest dieback by using weighted rainfall projections from 24 general circulation models (GCMs) to create probability density functions (PDFs) for future forest biomass changes simulated by a dynamic vegetation model (LPJmL). *Our probabilistic assessment of biomass change suggests a likely shift towards increasing biomass compared with nonweighted results. Biomass estimates range between a gain of 6.2 and a loss of 2.7 kg carbon m(-2) for the Amazon region, depending on the strength of CO(2) fertilization. *The uncertainty associated with the long-term effect of CO(2) is much larger than that associated with precipitation change. This underlines the importance of reducing uncertainties in the direct effects of CO(2) on tropical ecosystems.

Conduct problems and level of social competence in Head Start children: prevalence, pervasiveness, and associated risk factors.

PubMed

Webster-Stratton, C; Hammond, M

1998-06-01

The purpose of the current project was to determine the prevalence of conduct problems, low social competence, and associated risk factors in a sample of 4-year-old low-income children (N = 426) from 64 Head Start classrooms in the Seattle area. Conduct problems and social competence were assessed based on a combination of teacher reports, parent reports, and independent observations of children interacting with peers in the classroom and with parents at home. We examined the relative contribution of a variety of risk factors, including maternal history and socioeconomic background, current levels of stress and social support, mothers' emotional state, and parenting competence in relation to "pervasive" (i.e., at home and school) and "nonpervasive" conduct problems and low social competence. Findings indicated similar risk factors for conduct problems and for low social competence, with an ordered increase in the number of risk factors from normal to "nonpervasive" to "pervasive" groups. Harshness of parenting style (i.e., slapping, hitting, yelling) significantly distinguished between the three groups for low social competence and conduct problems. Positive affect, praise, and physical warmth from mothers were positively related to social competence but unrelated to conduct problems.

Unravelling the structure of species extinction risk for predictive conservation science.

PubMed

Lee, Tien Ming; Jetz, Walter

2011-05-07

Extinction risk varies across species and space owing to the combined and interactive effects of ecology/life history and geography. For predictive conservation science to be effective, large datasets and integrative models that quantify the relative importance of potential factors and separate rapidly changing from relatively static threat drivers are urgently required. Here, we integrate and map in space the relative and joint effects of key correlates of The International Union for Conservation of Nature-assessed extinction risk for 8700 living birds. Extinction risk varies significantly with species' broad-scale environmental niche, geographical range size, and life-history and ecological traits such as body size, developmental mode, primary diet and foraging height. Even at this broad scale, simple quantifications of past human encroachment across species' ranges emerge as key in predicting extinction risk, supporting the use of land-cover change projections for estimating future threat in an integrative setting. A final joint model explains much of the interspecific variation in extinction risk and provides a remarkably strong prediction of its observed global geography. Our approach unravels the species-level structure underlying geographical gradients in extinction risk and offers a means of disentangling static from changing components of current and future threat. This reconciliation of intrinsic and extrinsic, and of past and future extinction risk factors may offer a critical step towards a more continuous, forward-looking assessment of species' threat status based on geographically explicit environmental change projections, potentially advancing global predictive conservation science.

Risk Quantification of Systems Engineering Documents Improves Probability of DOD Project Success

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

comprehensive risk model for DoD milestone review documentation as well as recommended changes to the Capability Maturity Model Integration ( CMMI ) Project...Milestone Documentation, Project Planning, Rational Frame, Political Frame, CMMI Project Planning Process Area, CMMI Risk Management Process Area...well as recommended changes to the Capability Maturity Model Integration ( CMMI ) Project Planning and Risk Management process areas. The intent is to

Community-based efforts to prevent obesity: Australia-wide survey of projects.

PubMed

Nichols, Melanie S; Reynolds, Rebecca C; Waters, Elizabeth; Gill, Timothy; King, Lesley; Swinburn, Boyd A; Allender, Steven

2013-08-01

Community-based programs that affect healthy environments and policies have emerged as an effective response to high obesity levels in populations. Apart from limited individual reports, little is currently known about these programs, limiting the potential to provide effective support, to promote effective practice, prevent adverse outcomes and disseminate intervention results and experience. The aim of the present study was to identify the size and reach of current community-based obesity prevention projects in Australia and to examine their characteristics, program features (e.g. intervention setting), capacity and approach to obesity prevention. Detailed survey completed by representatives from community-based obesity prevention initiatives in Australia. There was wide variation in funding, capacity and approach to obesity prevention among the 78 participating projects. Median annual funding was Au$94900 (range Au$2500-$4.46 million). The most common intervention settings were schools (39%). Forty per cent of programs focused on a population group of ≥50000 people. A large proportion of respondents felt that they did not have sufficient resources or staff training to achieve project objectives. Community-based projects currently represent a very large investment by both government and non-government sectors for the prevention of obesity. Existing projects are diverse in size and scope, and reach large segments of the population. Further work is needed to identify the full extent of existing community actions and to monitor their reach and future 'scale up' to ensure that future activities aim for effective integration into systems, policies and environments. SO WHAT? Community-based programs make a substantial contribution to the prevention of obesity and promotion of healthy lifestyles in Australia. A risk of the current intervention landscape is that effective approaches may go unrecognised due to lack of effective evaluations or limitations in program design, duration or size. Policy makers and researchers must recognise the potential contribution of these initiatives, to both public health and knowledge generation, and provide support for strong evaluation and sustainable intervention designs.

Managing Ada development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, James R.

1986-01-01

The Ada programming language was developed under the sponsorship of the Department of Defense to address the soaring costs associated with software development and maintenance. Ada is powerful, and yet to take full advantage of its power, it is sufficiently complex and different from current programming approaches that there is considerable risk associated with committing a program to be done in Ada. There are also few programs of any substantial size that have been implemented using Ada that may be studied to determine those management methods that resulted in a successful Ada project. The items presented are the author's opinions which have been formed as a result of going through an experience software development. The difficulties faced, risks assumed, management methods applied, and lessons learned, and most importantly, the techniques that were successful are all valuable sources of management information for those managers ready to assume major Ada developments projects.

Climate change and health modeling: horses for courses.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie L; Rocklöv, Joacim

2014-01-01

Mathematical and statistical models are needed to understand the extent to which weather, climate variability, and climate change are affecting current and may affect future health burdens in the context of other risk factors and a range of possible development pathways, and the temporal and spatial patterns of any changes. Such understanding is needed to guide the design and the implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures. Because each model projection captures only a narrow range of possible futures, and because models serve different purposes, multiple models are needed for each health outcome ('horses for courses'). Multiple modeling results can be used to bracket the ranges of when, where, and with what intensity negative health consequences could arise. This commentary explores some climate change and health modeling issues, particularly modeling exposure-response relationships, developing early warning systems, projecting health risks over coming decades, and modeling to inform decision-making. Research needs are also suggested.

Sectoral contributions to surface water stress in the coterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Averyt, K.; Meldrum, J.; Caldwell, P.; Sun, G.; McNulty, S.; Huber-Lee, A.; Madden, N.

2013-09-01

Here, we assess current stress in the freshwater system based on the best available data in order to understand possible risks and vulnerabilities to regional water resources and the sectors dependent on freshwater. We present watershed-scale measures of surface water supply stress for the coterminous United States (US) using the water supply stress index (WaSSI) model which considers regional trends in both water supply and demand. A snapshot of contemporary annual water demand is compared against different water supply regimes, including current average supplies, current extreme-year supplies, and projected future average surface water flows under a changing climate. In addition, we investigate the contributions of different water demand sectors to current water stress. On average, water supplies are stressed, meaning that demands for water outstrip natural supplies in over 9% of the 2103 watersheds examined. These watersheds rely on reservoir storage, conveyance systems, and groundwater to meet current water demands. Overall, agriculture is the major demand-side driver of water stress in the US, whereas municipal stress is isolated to southern California. Water stress introduced by cooling water demands for power plants is punctuated across the US, indicating that a single power plant has the potential to stress water supplies at the watershed scale. On the supply side, watersheds in the western US are particularly sensitive to low flow events and projected long-term shifts in flow driven by climate change. The WaSSI results imply that not only are water resources in the southwest in particular at risk, but that there are also potential vulnerabilities to specific sectors, even in the ‘water-rich’ southeast.

The occurrence of high-risk factors for hearing loss in very-low-birth-weight neonates: a retrospective exploratory study of targeted hearing screening.

PubMed

Kanji, Amisha; Khoza-Shangase, Katijah

2012-12-01

The current study aimed at determining the type and frequency of high-risk factors for hearing loss in a group of very-low-birth-weight (VLBW) neonates in a tertiary hospital in South Africa with the objective of collating evidence that could be used in arguing for or against revisiting targeted hearing screening in developing countries. Furthermore, the study aimed at investigating the relationship between the identified high-risk factors and hearing screening results. In a retrospective data review design, data were collated from files from the VLBW project; this included hearing screening records, as well as records from participant medical and audiology files. Records of 86 neonates with birth weights ranging between 680 g and 1500 g were reviewed. Findings indicated that neonatal jaundice, exposure to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), mechanical or assisted ventilation, and neonatal intensive care unit stay greater than 48 hours were the most frequently occurring high-risk factors for hearing loss in the current sample. These factors are consistent with those listed in the high-risk register of the Health Professions Council of South Africa for the South African context. Findings confirm the complexity of risk factors, and the influence that a variety of factors such as poor follow-up or return rate might have on the implementation of early hearing detection and intervention. The importance of establishing context-specific risk factors for effective implementation of targeted screening protocols where niversal newborn hearing screening is not yet a reality was highlighted by the current study.

Risk evaluation of highway engineering project based on the fuzzy-AHP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Qian; Wei, Yajun

2011-10-01

Engineering projects are social activities, which integrate with technology, economy, management and organization. There are uncertainties in each respect of engineering projects, and it needs to strengthen risk management urgently. Based on the analysis of the characteristics of highway engineering, and the study of the basic theory on risk evaluation, the paper built an index system of highway project risk evaluation. Besides based on fuzzy mathematics principle, analytical hierarchy process was used and as a result, the model of the comprehensive appraisal method of fuzzy and AHP was set up for the risk evaluation of express way concessionary project. The validity and the practicability of the risk evaluation of expressway concessionary project were verified after the model was applied to the practice of a project.

Towards a robust methodology to assess coastal impacts and adaptation policies for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vousdoukas, Michalis; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc

2016-04-01

The present contribution aims to present preliminary results from efforts towards (i) the development of the integrated risk assessment tool LISCoAsT for Europe (Large scale Integrated Sea-level and Coastal Assessment Tool); (ii) the assessment of coastal risk along the European coastline in view of climate change; and (iii) the development and application of a robust methodology to evaluate adaptation options for the European coastline under climate change scenarios. The overall approach builds on the disaster risk methodology proposed by the IPCC SREX (2012) report, defining risk as the combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Substantial effort has been put in all the individual components of the risk assessment chain, including: (1) the development of dynamic scenarios of catastrophic coastal hazards (e.g., storm surges, sea-level rise) in view of climate change; (2) quantification, mapping and forecasting exposure and vulnerability in coastal areas; (3) carrying out a bottom-up, highly disaggregated assessment of climate impacts on coastal areas in Europe in view of global warming; (4) estimating the costs and assessing the effectiveness of different adaptation options. Projections indicate that, by the end of this century, sea levels in Europe will rise on average between 45 and 70 cm; while projections of coastal hazard showed that for some European regions, the increased storminess can be an additional significant driver of further risk. Projections of increasing extreme storm surge levels (SSL) were even more pronounced under the business-as-usual RCP8.5 concentration pathway, in particular along the Northern Europe coastline. The above are also reflected in the coastal impact projections, which show a significant increase in the expected annual damage (EAD) from coastal flooding. The present EAD for Europe of 800 million €/year is projected to increase up to 2.4 and 3.2 billion €/year by 2040 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, and to 11.2 and 18.3 billion €/year by 2100 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively (values correspond to a medium ice-sheet behavior scenario). The projected Expected Annual Number of People forced to relocate because of RSLR by the year 2100 is 22,000 and 35,000 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Finally, the expected annual number of people affected by coastal flooding in Europe is projected to increase from presently 27,000 to 67,000 and 197,000 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively by 2040, and to 81,000 and 295,000 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively by 2100. Apart from improving the impact assessment approach, the main current priority is to advance further towards the evaluation of coastal adaptation and risk reduction strategies.

Application of Risk within Net Present Value Calculations for Government Projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grandl, Paul R.; Youngblood, Alisha D.; Componation, Paul; Gholston, Sampson

2007-01-01

In January 2004, President Bush announced a new vision for space exploration. This included retirement of the current Space Shuttle fleet by 2010 and the development of new set of launch vehicles. The President's vision did not include significant increases in the NASA budget, so these development programs need to be cost conscious. Current trade study procedures address factors such as performance, reliability, safety, manufacturing, maintainability, operations, and costs. It would be desirable, however, to have increased insight into the cost factors behind each of the proposed system architectures. This paper reports on a set of component trade studies completed on the upper stage engine for the new launch vehicles. Increased insight into architecture costs was developed by including a Net Present Value (NPV) method and applying a set of associated risks to the base parametric cost data. The use of the NPV method along with the risks was found to add fidelity to the trade study and provide additional information to support the selection of a more robust design architecture.

Correlational Study of Risk Management and Information Technology Project Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gillespie, Seth J.

2014-01-01

Many IT projects fail despite the best efforts to keep these projects within budget, schedule, and scope. Few studies have looked at the effect of project risk management tools and techniques on project success. The primary focus of this study was to examine the extent to which utilization of project risk management processes influence project…

Understanding Pre-Quantitative Risk in Projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, Lynne P.

2011-01-01

Standard approaches to risk management in projects depend on the ability of teams to identify risks and quantify the probabilities and consequences of these risks (e.g., the 5 x 5 risk matrix). However, long before quantification does - or even can - occur, and long after, teams make decisions based on their pre-quantitative understanding of risk. These decisions can have long-lasting impacts on the project. While significant research has looked at the process of how to quantify risk, our understanding of how teams conceive of and manage pre-quantitative risk is lacking. This paper introduces the concept of pre-quantitative risk and discusses the implications of addressing pre-quantitative risk in projects.

Limits to health adaptation in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebi, K. L.

2015-12-01

Introduction: Because the health risks of climate variability and change are not new, it has been assumed that health systems have the capacity, experience, and tools to effectively adapt to changing burdens of climate-sensitive health outcomes with additional climate change. However, as illustrated in the Ebola crisis, health systems in many low-income countries have insufficient capacity to manage current health burdens. These countries also are those most vulnerable to climate change, including changes in food and water safety and security, increases in extreme weather and climate events, and increases in the geographic range, incidence, and seasonality of a variety of infectious diseases. The extent to which they might be able to keep pace with projected risks depends on assumptions of the sustainability of development pathways. At the same time, the magnitude and pattern of climate change will depend on greenhouse gas emission pathways. Methods: Review of the success of health adaptation projects and expert judgment assessment of the degree to which adaptation efforts will be able to keep pace with projected changes in climate variability and change. Results: Health adaptation can reduce the current and projected burdens of climate-sensitive health outcomes over the short term in many countries, but the extent to which it could do so past mid-century will depend on emission and development pathways. Under high emission scenarios, climate change will be rapid and extensive, leading to fundamental shifts in the burden of climate-sensitive health outcomes that will challenging for many countries to manage. Sustainable development pathways could delay but not eliminate associated health burdens. Conclusions: To prepare for and cope with the Anthropocene, health systems need additional adaptation policies and measures to develop more robust health systems, and need to advocate for rapid and significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

Peer-to-peer nursing rounds and hospital-acquired pressure ulcer prevalence in a surgical intensive care unit: a quality improvement project.

PubMed

Kelleher, Alyson Dare; Moorer, Amanda; Makic, MaryBeth Flynn

2012-01-01

We conducted a quality improvement project in order to evaluate the effect of nurse-to-nurse bedside "rounding" as a strategy to decrease hospital-acquired pressure ulcers (HAPU) in a surgical intensive care unit. We instituted weekly peer-to-peer bedside skin rounds in a 17-bed surgical intensive care unit. Two nurses were identified as skin champions and trained by the hospital's certified WOC nurse to conduct skin rounds. The skin champion nurses conducted weekly peer-to-peer rounds that included discussions about key elements of our patients' skin status including current Braden Scale for Pressure Sore Risk score, and implementation of specific interventions related to subscale risk assessment. If a pressure ulcer was present, the current action plan was reevaluated for effectiveness. Quarterly HAPU prevalence studies were conducted from January 2008 to December 2010. Nineteen patients experienced a HAPU: 17 were located on the coccyx and 2 on the heel. Ten ulcers were classified as stage II, 3 PU were stage IV, 5 were deemed unstageable, and 1 was classified as a deep tissue injury. The frequency of preventive interventions rose during our quality improvement project. Specifically, the use of prevention surfaces increased 92%, repositioning increased 30%, nutrition interventions increased 77%, and moisture management increased 100%. Prior to focused nursing rounds, the highest HAPU prevalence rate was 27%. After implementing focused nursing rounds, HAPU rates trended down and were 0% for 3 consecutive quarters.

Model-based projections of Zika virus infections in childbearing women in the Americas.

PubMed

Perkins, T Alex; Siraj, Amir S; Ruktanonchai, Corrine W; Kraemer, Moritz U G; Tatem, Andrew J

2016-07-25

Zika virus is a mosquito-borne pathogen that is rapidly spreading across the Americas. Due to associations between Zika virus infection and a range of fetal maladies(1,2), the epidemic trajectory of this viral infection poses a significant concern for the nearly 15 million children born in the Americas each year. Ascertaining the portion of this population that is truly at risk is an important priority. One recent estimate(3) suggested that 5.42 million childbearing women live in areas of the Americas that are suitable for Zika occurrence. To improve on that estimate, which did not take into account the protective effects of herd immunity, we developed a new approach that combines classic results from epidemiological theory with seroprevalence data and highly spatially resolved data about drivers of transmission to make location-specific projections of epidemic attack rates. Our results suggest that 1.65 (1.45-2.06) million childbearing women and 93.4 (81.6-117.1) million people in total could become infected before the first wave of the epidemic concludes. Based on current estimates of rates of adverse fetal outcomes among infected women(2,4,5), these results suggest that tens of thousands of pregnancies could be negatively impacted by the first wave of the epidemic. These projections constitute a revised upper limit of populations at risk in the current Zika epidemic, and our approach offers a new way to make rapid assessments of the threat posed by emerging infectious diseases more generally.

Expanding the Envelope of UAS Certification: What it Takes to Type Certify a UAS for Precision Agricultural Spraying

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maddalon, J. M.; Hayhurst, K. J.; Neogi, N. A.; Verstynen, H. A.; Clothier, R. A.

2016-01-01

One of the key challenges to the development of a commercial Unmanned Air-craft System (UAS) market is the lack of explicit consideration of UAS in the current regulatory framework. Despite recent progress, additional steps are needed to enable broad UAS types and operational models. This paper discusses recent research that examines how a risk-based approach for safety might change the process and substance of airworthiness requirements for UAS. The project proposed risk-centric airworthiness requirements for a midsize un-manned rotorcraft used for agricultural spraying and also identified factors that may contribute to distinguishing safety risk among different UAS types and operational concepts. Lessons learned regarding how a risk-based approach can expand the envelope of UAS certification are discussed.

Maternal experiences of racism and violence as predictors of preterm birth: rationale and study design.

PubMed

Rich-Edwards, J; Krieger, N; Majzoub, J; Zierler, S; Lieberman, E; Gillman, M

2001-07-01

Chronic psychological stress may raise the risk of preterm delivery by raising levels of placental corticotropin-releasing hormone (CRH). Women who have been the targets of racism or personal violence may be at particularly high risk of preterm delivery. The aims of this study are to examine the extent to which: (1) maternal experiences of racism or violence in childhood, adulthood, or pregnancy are associated with the risk of preterm birth; (2) CRH levels are prospectively associated with risk of preterm birth; and (3) CRH levels are associated with past and current maternal experiences of racism or violence. We have begun to examine these questions among women enrolled in Project Viva, a Boston-based longitudinal study of 6000 pregnant women and their children.

Development of a database system for near-future climate change projections under the Japanese National Project SI-CAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakagawa, Y.; Kawahara, S.; Araki, F.; Matsuoka, D.; Ishikawa, Y.; Fujita, M.; Sugimoto, S.; Okada, Y.; Kawazoe, S.; Watanabe, S.; Ishii, M.; Mizuta, R.; Murata, A.; Kawase, H.

2017-12-01

Analyses of large ensemble data are quite useful in order to produce probabilistic effect projection of climate change. Ensemble data of "+2K future climate simulations" are currently produced by Japanese national project "Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (SI-CAT)" as a part of a database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF; Mizuta et al. 2016) produced by Program for Risk Information on Climate Change. Those data consist of global warming simulations and regional downscaling simulations. Considering that those data volumes are too large (a few petabyte) to download to a local computer of users, a user-friendly system is required to search and download data which satisfy requests of the users. We develop "a database system for near-future climate change projections" for providing functions to find necessary data for the users under SI-CAT. The database system for near-future climate change projections mainly consists of a relational database, a data download function and user interface. The relational database using PostgreSQL is a key function among them. Temporally and spatially compressed data are registered on the relational database. As a first step, we develop the relational database for precipitation, temperature and track data of typhoon according to requests by SI-CAT members. The data download function using Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol (OPeNDAP) provides a function to download temporally and spatially extracted data based on search results obtained by the relational database. We also develop the web-based user interface for using the relational database and the data download function. A prototype of the database system for near-future climate change projections are currently in operational test on our local server. The database system for near-future climate change projections will be released on Data Integration and Analysis System Program (DIAS) in fiscal year 2017. Techniques of the database system for near-future climate change projections might be quite useful for simulation and observational data in other research fields. We report current status of development and some case studies of the database system for near-future climate change projections.

A decision support tool to compare waterborne and foodborne infection and/or illness risks associated with climate change.

PubMed

Schijven, Jack; Bouwknegt, Martijn; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria; Rutjes, Saskia; Sudre, Bertrand; Suk, Jonathan E; Semenza, Jan C

2013-12-01

Climate change may impact waterborne and foodborne infectious disease, but to what extent is uncertain. Estimating climate-change-associated relative infection risks from exposure to viruses, bacteria, or parasites in water or food is critical for guiding adaptation measures. We present a computational tool for strategic decision making that describes the behavior of pathogens using location-specific input data under current and projected climate conditions. Pathogen-pathway combinations are available for exposure to norovirus, Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, and noncholera Vibrio species via drinking water, bathing water, oysters, or chicken fillets. Infection risk outcomes generated by the tool under current climate conditions correspond with those published in the literature. The tool demonstrates that increasing temperatures lead to increasing risks for infection with Campylobacter from consuming raw/undercooked chicken fillet and for Vibrio from water exposure. Increasing frequencies of drought generally lead to an elevated infection risk of exposure to persistent pathogens such as norovirus and Cryptosporidium, but decreasing risk of exposure to rapidly inactivating pathogens, like Campylobacter. The opposite is the case with increasing annual precipitation; an upsurge of heavy rainfall events leads to more peaks in infection risks in all cases. The interdisciplinary tool presented here can be used to guide climate change adaptation strategies focused on infectious diseases. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Environmental change and Rift Valley fever in eastern Africa: projecting beyond HEALTHY FUTURES.

PubMed

Taylor, David; Hagenlocher, Michael; Jones, Anne E; Kienberger, Stefan; Leedale, Joseph; Morse, Andrew P

2016-03-31

Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a relatively recently emerged zoonosis endemic to large parts of sub-Saharan Africa that has the potential to spread beyond the continent, have profound health and socio-economic impacts, particularly in communities where resilience is already low. Here output from a new, dynamic disease model [the Liverpool RVF (LRVF) model], driven by downscaled, bias-corrected climate change data from an ensemble of global circulation models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project run according to two radiative forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5], is combined with results of a spatial assessment of social vulnerability to the disease in eastern Africa. The combined approach allowed for analyses of spatial and temporal variations in the risk of RVF to the end of the current century. Results for both scenarios highlight the high-risk of future RVF outbreaks, including in parts of eastern Africa to date unaffected by the disease. The results also highlight the risk of spread from/to countries adjacent to the study area, and possibly farther afield, and the value of considering the geography of future projections of disease risk. Based on the results, there is a clear need to remain vigilant and to invest not only in surveillance and early warning systems, but also in addressing the socio-economic factors that underpin social vulnerability in order to mitigate, effectively, future impacts.

Societal transformation and adaptation necessary to manage dynamics in flood hazard and risk mitigation (TRANS-ADAPT)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchs, Sven; Thaler, Thomas; Bonnefond, Mathieu; Clarke, Darren; Driessen, Peter; Hegger, Dries; Gatien-Tournat, Amandine; Gralepois, Mathilde; Fournier, Marie; Mees, Heleen; Murphy, Conor; Servain-Courant, Sylvie

2015-04-01

Facing the challenges of climate change, this project aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. This proposal assesses societal transformations from the perspective of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. Yet each risk mitigation measure is built on a narrative of exchanges and relations between people and therefore may condition the outputs. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this project will focus on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. The policy dimension of adaptation, predominantly decisions on the societal admissible level of vulnerability and risk, will be evaluated by a human-environment interaction approach using multiple methods and the assessment of social capacities of stakeholders across scales. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. In addressing the relationship between these dimensions of adaptation on different temporal and spatial scales, this project is both scientifically innovative and policy relevant, thereby supporting climate policy needs in Europe towards a concept of risk governance. Key words: climate change adaptation; transformation; flood risk management; resilience; vulnerability; innovative bottom-up developments; multifunctional use

Project risk management in the construction of high-rise buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titarenko, Boris; Hasnaoui, Amir; Titarenko, Roman; Buzuk, Liliya

2018-03-01

This paper shows the project risk management methods, which allow to better identify risks in the construction of high-rise buildings and to manage them throughout the life cycle of the project. One of the project risk management processes is a quantitative analysis of risks. The quantitative analysis usually includes the assessment of the potential impact of project risks and their probabilities. This paper shows the most popular methods of risk probability assessment and tries to indicate the advantages of the robust approach over the traditional methods. Within the framework of the project risk management model a robust approach of P. Huber is applied and expanded for the tasks of regression analysis of project data. The suggested algorithms used to assess the parameters in statistical models allow to obtain reliable estimates. A review of the theoretical problems of the development of robust models built on the methodology of the minimax estimates was done and the algorithm for the situation of asymmetric "contamination" was developed.

Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors.

PubMed

Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

2013-09-01

Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis , the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001-2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057-2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses-including altered phenology-of disease vectors to altered climate.

Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors

PubMed Central

Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H.; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S.; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V.

2014-01-01

Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001–2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057–2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses—including altered phenology—of disease vectors to altered climate. PMID:24772388

Biophysical risks to carbon sequestration and storage in Australian drylands.

PubMed

Nolan, Rachael H; Sinclair, Jennifer; Eldridge, David J; Ramp, Daniel

2018-02-15

Carbon abatement schemes that reduce land clearing and promote revegetation are now an important component of climate change policy globally. There is considerable potential for these schemes to operate in drylands which are spatially extensive. However, projects in these environments risk failure through unplanned release of stored carbon to the atmosphere. In this review, we identify factors that may adversely affect the success of vegetation-based carbon abatement projects in dryland ecosystems, evaluate their likelihood of occurrence, and estimate the potential consequences for carbon storage and sequestration. We also evaluate management strategies to reduce risks posed to these carbon abatement projects. Identified risks were primarily disturbances, including unplanned fire, drought, and grazing. Revegetation projects also risk recruitment failure, thereby failing to reach projected rates of sequestration. Many of these risks are dependent on rainfall, which is highly variable in drylands and susceptible to further variation under climate change. Resprouting vegetation is likely to be less vulnerable to disturbance and have faster recovery rates upon release from disturbance. We conclude that there is a strong impetus for identifying management strategies and risk reduction mechanisms for carbon abatement projects. Risk mitigation would be enhanced by effective co-ordination of mitigation strategies at scales larger than individual abatement project boundaries, and by implementing risk assessment throughout project planning and implementation stages. Reduction of risk is vital for maximising carbon sequestration of individual projects and for reducing barriers to the establishment of new projects entering the market. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Design and implementation of a risk assessment module in a spatial decision support system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kaixi; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

2014-05-01

The spatial decision support system named 'Changes SDSS' is currently under development. The goal of this system is to analyze changing hydro-meteorological hazards and the effect of risk reduction alternatives to support decision makers in choosing the best alternatives. The risk assessment module within the system is to assess the current risk, analyze the risk after implementations of risk reduction alternatives, and analyze the risk in different future years when considering scenarios such as climate change, land use change and population growth. The objective of this work is to present the detailed design and implementation plan of the risk assessment module. The main challenges faced consist of how to shift the risk assessment from traditional desktop software to an open source web-based platform, the availability of input data and the inclusion of uncertainties in the risk analysis. The risk assessment module is developed using Ext JS library for the implementation of user interface on the client side, using Python for scripting, as well as PostGIS spatial functions for complex computations on the server side. The comprehensive consideration of the underlying uncertainties in input data can lead to a better quantification of risk assessment and a more reliable Changes SDSS, since the outputs of risk assessment module are the basis for decision making module within the system. The implementation of this module will contribute to the development of open source web-based modules for multi-hazard risk assessment in the future. This work is part of the "CHANGES SDSS" project, funded by the European Community's 7th Framework Program.

Analysis of System-Wide Investment in the National Airspace System: A Portfolio Analytical Framework and an Example

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhadra, Dipasis; Morser, Frederick R.

2006-01-01

In this paper, the authors review the FAA s current program investments and lay out a preliminary analytical framework to undertake projects that may address some of the noted deficiencies. By drawing upon the well developed theories from corporate finance, an analytical framework is offered that can be used for choosing FAA s investments taking into account risk, expected returns and inherent dependencies across NAS programs. The framework can be expanded into taking multiple assets and realistic values for parameters in drawing an efficient risk-return frontier for the entire FAA investment programs.

Risk analysis using AS/NZS 4360:2004, Bow-Tie diagram and ALARP on construction projects of Banyumanik Hospital

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sari, Diana Puspita; Pujotomo, Darminto; Wardani, Nadira Kusuma

2017-11-01

The Determination of risk is an uncertain event. Risks can have negative or positive impacts on project objectives. A project was defined as a series of activities and tasks that have a purpose, specifications, and limits of cost. Banyumanik Hospital Development Project is one of the construction projects in Semarang which have experienced some problems. The first problem is project delays on building stake. The second problem is delay of material supply. Finally, the problem that occurs is less management attention to health safety as evidenced by the unavailability of PPE for the workers. These problems will pose a risk to be a very important risk management performed by contractors at the Banyumanik Hospital Development Project to reduce the impact that would be caused by the risk borne by the provider of construction services. This research aim to risk identification, risk assessment and risk mitigation. Project risk management begins with the identification of risks based on the project life cycle. The risk assessment carried out by AS I NZS 4360: 2004 to the impacts of cost, time and quality. The results obtained from the method of AS I NZS 4360: 2004 is the risk that requires the handling of mitigation. Mitigated risk is the risk that had significant and high level. There are four risks that require risk mitigation with Bow-Tie diagrams which is work accidents, contract delays, material delays and design changes. Bow-Tie diagram method is a method for identifying causal and preventive action and recovery of a risk. Results obtained from Bow-Tie diagram method is a preventive action and recovery. This action is used as input to the ALARP method. ALARP method is used to determine the priority of the strategy proposed in the category broadly acceptable, tolerable, and unacceptable.

Climate change will increase the naturalization risk from garden plants in Europe

PubMed Central

Wessely, Johannes; Bossdorf, Oliver; Dawson, Wayne; Essl, Franz; Gattringer, Andreas; Klonner, Günther; Kreft, Holger; Kuttner, Michael; Moser, Dietmar; Pergl, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; Thuiller, Wilfried; van Kleunen, Mark; Weigelt, Patrick; Winter, Marten; Dullinger, Stefan; Beaumont, Linda

2016-01-01

Abstract Aim Plant invasions often follow initial introduction with a considerable delay. The current non‐native flora of a region may hence contain species that are not yet naturalized but may become so in the future, especially if climate change lifts limitations on species spread. In Europe, non‐native garden plants represent a huge pool of potential future invaders. Here, we evaluate the naturalization risk from this species pool and how it may change under a warmer climate. Location Europe. Methods We selected all species naturalized anywhere in the world but not yet in Europe from the set of non‐native European garden plants. For this subset of 783 species, we used species distribution models to assess their potential European ranges under different scenarios of climate change. Moreover, we defined geographical hotspots of naturalization risk from those species by combining projections of climatic suitability with maps of the area available for ornamental plant cultivation. Results Under current climate, 165 species would already find suitable conditions in > 5% of Europe. Although climate change substantially increases the potential range of many species, there are also some that are predicted to lose climatically suitable area under a changing climate, particularly species native to boreal and Mediterranean biomes. Overall, hotspots of naturalization risk defined by climatic suitability alone, or by a combination of climatic suitability and appropriate land cover, are projected to increase by up to 102% or 64%, respectively. Main conclusions Our results suggest that the risk of naturalization of European garden plants will increase with warming climate, and thus it is very likely that the risk of negative impacts from invasion by these plants will also grow. It is therefore crucial to increase awareness of the possibility of biological invasions among horticulturalists, particularly in the face of a warming climate. PMID:28111525

Building a Co-Created Citizen Science Program with Community Members Neighboring a Hazardous Waste Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez-Andreotta, M.; Brusseau, M. L. L.; Artiola, J. F.; Maier, R. M.; Gandolfi, A. J.

2015-12-01

A research project that is only expert-driven may ignore the role of local knowledge in research, often gives low priority to the development of a comprehensive strategy to engage the community, and may not deliver the results of the study to the community in an effective way. To date, only a limited number of co-created citizen science projects, where community members are involved in most or all steps of the scientific process, have been initiated at contaminated sites and even less in conjunction with risk communication. Gardenroots: The Dewey-Humboldt AZ Garden Project was a place-based, co-created citizen science project where community members and researchers together: defined the question for study, developed hypotheses, collected environmental samples, disseminated results broadly, translated the results into action, and posed new research questions. This co-created environmental research project produced new data and addressed an additional exposure route (consumption of vegetables grown in soils with elevated arsenic levels) that was not being evaluated in the current site assessment. Furthermore, co-producing science led to both individual learning and social-ecological outcomes. This approach illustrates the benefits of a co-created citizen-science program in addressing the complex problems that arise in communities neighboring a hazardous waste sites. Such a project increased the community's involvement in regional environmental assessment and decision-making, which has the potential to help mitigate environmental exposures and thereby reduce associated risks.

Borders and Borderlands in the Americas

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-08-01

were the risk of violence is high. Cases considered by the project included the Venezuela-Colombia border, the Ecuador -Colombia border, and the U.S...national border security responsibilities.31 For example, in the case of Ecuador , the army deliberately avoids confrontations with Colombian insurgents...that may be useful for explaining the current policies and practices we observe in the 2 Americas. The cases considered also look backwards in

Improvement of the cost-benefit analysis algorithm for high-rise construction projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gafurov, Andrey; Skotarenko, Oksana; Plotnikov, Vladimir

2018-03-01

The specific nature of high-rise investment projects entailing long-term construction, high risks, etc. implies a need to improve the standard algorithm of cost-benefit analysis. An improved algorithm is described in the article. For development of the improved algorithm of cost-benefit analysis for high-rise construction projects, the following methods were used: weighted average cost of capital, dynamic cost-benefit analysis of investment projects, risk mapping, scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis of critical ratios, etc. This comprehensive approach helped to adapt the original algorithm to feasibility objectives in high-rise construction. The authors put together the algorithm of cost-benefit analysis for high-rise construction projects on the basis of risk mapping and sensitivity analysis of critical ratios. The suggested project risk management algorithms greatly expand the standard algorithm of cost-benefit analysis in investment projects, namely: the "Project analysis scenario" flowchart, improving quality and reliability of forecasting reports in investment projects; the main stages of cash flow adjustment based on risk mapping for better cost-benefit project analysis provided the broad range of risks in high-rise construction; analysis of dynamic cost-benefit values considering project sensitivity to crucial variables, improving flexibility in implementation of high-rise projects.

Cross-Cutting Risk Framework: Mining Data for Common Risks Across the Portfolio

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klein, Gerald A., Jr.; Ruark, Valerie

2017-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) defines risk management as an integrated framework, combining risk-informed decision making and continuous risk management to foster forward-thinking and decision making from an integrated risk perspective. Therefore, decision makers must have access to risks outside of their own project to gain the knowledge that provides the integrated risk perspective. Through the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Projects Directorate (FPD) Business Change Initiative (BCI), risks were integrated into one repository to facilitate access to risk data between projects. With the centralized repository, communications between the FPD, project managers, and risk managers improved and GSFC created the cross-cutting risk framework (CCRF) team. The creation of the consolidated risk repository, in parallel with the initiation of monthly FPD risk managers and risk governance board meetings, are now providing a complete risk management picture spanning the entire directorate. This paper will describe the challenges, methodologies, tools, and techniques used to develop the CCRF, and the lessons learned as the team collectively worked to identify risks that FPD programs projects had in common, both past and present.

Human Research Program Human Health Countermeasures Element Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Risk Standing Review Panel (SRP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norfleet, William; Harris, Bernard

2009-01-01

The Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Risk Standing Review Panel (SRP) was favorably impressed by the operational risk management approach taken by the Human Research Program (HRP) Integrated Research Plan (IRP) to address the stated life sciences issues. The life sciences community at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) seems to be focused on operational risk management. This approach is more likely to provide risk managers with the information they need at the time they need it. Concerning the information provided to the SRP by the EVA Physiology, Systems, and Performance Project (EPSP), it is obvious that a great deal of productive activity is under way. Evaluation of this information was hampered by the fact that it often was not organized in a fashion that reflects the "Gaps and Tasks" approach of the overall Human Health Countermeasures (HHC) effort, and that a substantial proportion of the briefing concerned subjects that, while interesting, are not part of the HHC Element (e.g., the pressurized rover presentation). Additionally, no information was provided on several of the tasks or how they related to work underway or already accomplished. This situation left the SRP having to guess at the efforts and relationship to other elements, and made it hard to easily map the EVA Project efforts currently underway, and the data collected thus far, to the gaps and tasks in the IRP. It seems that integration of the EPSP project into the HHC Element could be improved. Along these lines, we were concerned that our SRP was split off from the other participating SRPs at an early stage in the overall agenda for the meeting. In reality, the concerns of EPSP and other projects share much common ground. For example, the commonality of the concerns of the EVA and exercise physiology groups is obvious, both in terms of what reduced exercise capacity can do to EVA capability, and how the exercise performed during an EVA could contribute to an overall exercise countermeasure prescription.

Environmental Biosciences Program Quarterly Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lawrence C. Mohr, M.D.

2007-07-31

In May 2002, the United States Department of Energy (DOE) signed Assistance Instrument Number DE-FC09-02CH11109 with the Medical University of South Carolina (MUSC) to support the Environmental Biosciences Program (EBP). This funding instrument replaces DOE Assistance Instrument Number DE-FC02-98CH10902. EBP is an integrated, multidisciplinary scientific research program, employing a range of research initiatives to identify, study and resolve environmental health risks. These initiatives are consistent with the MUSC role as a comprehensive state-supported health sciences institution and with the nation's need for new and better approaches to the solution of a complex and expansive array of environment-related health problems. Themore » intrinsic capabilities of a comprehensive health sciences institution enable MUSC to be a national resource for the scientific investigation of environmental health issues. EBPs success as a nationally prominent research program is due, in part, to its ability to task-organize scientific expertise from multiple disciplines in addressing these complex problems Current research projects have focused EBP talent and resources on providing the scientific basis for risk-based standards, risk-based decision making and the accelerated clean-up of widespread environmental hazards. These hazards include trichloroethylene and low-dose ionizing radiation. Work on the trichloroethylene research projects has been slowed as a result of funding uncertainties. The impact of these funding uncertainties has been discussed with the DOE. Plans for restructuring the performance schedule of the trichloroethylene projects have been submitted to the department. A project is also being conducted in the use of geographical information system technology to analyze population health risks related to environmental hazards as a tool for risk-based decision-making. Questions, comments or requests for further information concerning the activities under this cooperative agreement can be forwarded to Dr. Lawrence C. Mohr in the EBP office of the Medical University of South Carolina at (843) 792-1532.« less

Environmental Biosciences Program Report for Year 3

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lawrence C. Mohr, M.D.

2007-04-30

In May 2002, the United States Department of Energy (DOE) signed Assistance Instrument Number DE-FC09-02CH11109 with the Medical University of South Carolina (MUSC) to support the Environmental Biosciences Program (EBP). This funding instrument replaces DOE Assistance Instrument Number DE-FC02-98CH10902. EBP is an integrated, multidisciplinary scientific research program, employing a range of research initiatives to identify, study and resolve environmental health risks. These initiatives are consistent with the MUSC role as a comprehensive state-supported health sciences institution and with the nation's need for new and better approaches to the solution of a complex and expansive array of environment-related health problems. Themore » intrinsic capabilities of a comprehensive health sciences institution enable MUSC to be a national resource for the scientific investigation of environmental health issues. EBPs success as a nationally prominent research program is due, in part, to its ability to task-organize scientific expertise from multiple disciplines in addressing these complex problems. Current research projects have focused EBP talent and resources on providing the scientific basis for risk-based standards, risk-based decision making and the accelerated clean-up of widespread environmental hazards. These hazards include trichloroethylene and low-dose ionizing radiation. Work on the trichloroethylene research projects has been slowed as a result of funding uncertainties. The impact of these funding uncertainties has been discussed with the DOE. Plans for restructuring the performance schedule of the trichloroethylene projects have been submitted to the department. A project is also being conducted in the use of geographical information system technology to analyze population health risks related to environmental hazards as a tool for risk-based decision-making. Questions, comments or requests for further information concerning the activities under this cooperative agreement can be forwarded to Dr. Lawrence C. Mohr in the EBP office of the Medical University of South Carolina at (843) 792-1532.« less

Environmental Biosciences Report for Year 3

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lawrence C. Mohr, M.D.

2007-10-31

In May 2002, the United States Department of Energy (DOE) signed Assistance Instrument Number DE-FC09-02CH11109 with the Medical University of South Carolina (MUSC) to support the Environmental Biosciences Program (EBP). This funding instrument replaces DOE Assistance Instrument Number DE-FC02-98CH10902. EBP is an integrated, multidisciplinary scientific research program, employing a range of research initiatives to identify, study and resolve environmental health risks. These initiatives are consistent with the MUSC role as a comprehensive state-supported health sciences institution and with the nation's need for new and better approaches to the solution of a complex and expansive array of environment-related health problems. Themore » intrinsic capabilities of a comprehensive health sciences institution enable MUSC to be a national resource for the scientific investigation of environmental health issues. EBPs success as a nationally prominent research program is due, in part, to its ability to task-organize scientific expertise from multiple disciplines in addressing these complex problems Current research projects have focused EBP talent and resources on providing the scientific basis for risk-based standards, risk-based decision making and the accelerated clean-up of widespread environmental hazards. These hazards include trichloroethylene and low-dose ionizing radiation. Work on the trichloroethylene research projects has been slowed as a result of funding uncertainties. The impact of these funding uncertainties has been discussed with the DOE. Plans for restructuring the performance schedule of the trichloroethylene projects have been submitted to the department. A project is also being conducted in the use of geographical information system technology to analyze population health risks related to environmental hazards as a tool for risk based decision-making. Questions, comments or requests for further information concerning the activities under this cooperative agreement can be forwarded to Dr. Lawrence C. Mohr in the EBP office of the Medical University of South Carolina at (843) 792-1532.« less

Environmental Biosciences Quarterly Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lawrence C. Mohr, M.D.

2007-01-31

In May 2002, the United States Department of Energy (DOE) signed Assistance Instrument Number DE-FC09-02CH11109 with the Medical University of South Carolina (MUSC) to support the Environmental Biosciences Program (EBP). This funding instrument replaces DOE Assistance Instrument Number DE-FC02-98CH10902. EBP is an integrated, multidisciplinary scientific research program, employing a range of research initiatives to identify, study and resolve environmental health risks. These initiatives are consistent with the MUSC role as a comprehensive state-supported health sciences institution and with the nation's need for new and better approaches to the solution of a complex and expansive array of environment-related health problems. Themore » intrinsic capabilities of a comprehensive health sciences institution enable MUSC to be a national resource for the scientific investigation of environmental health issues. EBPs success as a nationally prominent research program is due, in part, to its ability to task-organize scientific expertise from multiple disciplines in addressing these complex problems. Current research projects have focused EBP talent and resources on providing the scientific basis for risk-based standards, risk-based decision making and the accelerated clean-up of widespread environmental hazards. These hazards include trichloroethylene and low-dose ionizing radiation. Work on the trichloroethylene research projects has been slowed as a result of funding uncertainties. The impact of these funding uncertainties has been discussed with the DOE. Plans for restructuring the performance schedule of the trichloroethylene projects have been submitted to the department. A project is also being conducted in the use of geographical information system technology to analyze population health risks related to environmental hazards as a tool for risk-based decision-making. Questions, comments or requests for further information concerning the activities under this cooperative agreement can be forwarded to Dr. Lawrence C. Mohr in the EBP office of the Medical University of South Carolina at (843) 792-1532.« less

Perception and risk factors for cervical cancer among women in northern Ghana.

PubMed

Opoku, Constance A; Browne, Edmund Nii Laryea; Spangenberg, Kathryn; Moyer, Cheryl; Kolbilla, David; Gold, Katherine J

2016-06-01

This study assessed the perception of risk of cervical cancer and existence of risk factors for cervical cancer based on five known risk factors among women attending the Tamale Teaching Hospital in Tamale, Ghana. A consecutive sample of 300 women was interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire to inquire about risk factors and perception of risk of cervical cancer. Specific risk factors that were explored included early coitarche, multiple sexual partners, polygamous relationships, history of smoking, and having a current partner who had multiple sexual partners. Sixty-one per cent of women reported that they had no personal risk for cervical cancer. 27% of respondents were in polygamous relationships, and of those, more than half didn't think they were at an increased risk of cervical cancer. 2 women had a total of ≥ 5 sexual partners in their lifetime and neither believed they were at any risk for cervical cancer. 23% said their current partner had had at least 2 sexual partners in his lifetime, and of those, (61%) thought they were at no risk for cervical cancer. 46% of respondents reported not having any of the risk factors listed in the study. 23% of respondents reported having one risk factor while 21% had two risk factors and 11% had three or more risk factors. Women's perception of personal risk for cervical cancer is lower than their actual risk based on the five behavioural risk factors assessed and a lack of knowledge of the personal factors for the disease. This project was supported by NIH Research Training Grant #R25 TW009345 funded by the Fogarty International Centre, in partnership with several NIH Institutes (NIMH, NIGMS, NHLBI, OAR and OWH).

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; George, K.; Hu, X.; Kim, M. H.; Nikjoo, H.

2006-01-01

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Managing Space Radiation Risks On Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; George, K.; Hu, X.; Kim, M. H.; Nikjoo, H.

2005-01-01

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; George, K.; Hu, X.; Kim, M. H.; Nikjoo, H.; Ponomarev, A.; Ren, L.; Shavers, M. R.; Wu, H.

2005-01-01

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Long-term care over an uncertain future: what can current retirees expect?

PubMed

Kemper, Peter; Komisar, Harriet L; Alecxih, Lisa

The leading edge of the baby boom generation is nearing retirement and facing uncertainty about its need for long-term care (LTC). Using a microsimulation model, this analysis projected that people currently turning age 65 will need LTC for three years on average. An important share of needed care will be covered by public programs and some private insurance, but much of the care will be an uninsured private responsibility of individuals and their families--a responsibility that will be distributed unequally. While over a third of those now turning 65 are projected to never receive family care, three out of 10 will rely on family care for more than two years. Similarly, half of people turning 65 will have no private out-of-pocket expenditures for LTC, while more than one in 20 are projected to spend $100,000 or more of their own money (in present discounted value). Policy debate that focuses only on income security and acute care--and the corresponding Social Security and Medicare programs--misses the third, largely private, risk that retirees face: that of needing LTC.

Reducing Falls After Electroconvulsive Therapy: A Quality Improvement Project.

PubMed

Brown, Allana Marie

2017-07-01

Falls after electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) in patients 60 and older have been long recognized as a major clinical care issue across many mental health care settings. The evidence base for fall prevention strategies after receiving ECT is sparse. The risk factors for falls after ECT are vast and complex in nature, especially considering existing comorbid medical conditions. The dearth of research in guiding practitioners on fall reduction interventions for this patient population illuminates a gap in mental health care quality and safety. The purpose of the current nurse-led quality improvement project was to reduce falls in patients undergoing ECT by enhancing safety measures through education and a post-ECT treatment protocol. The project did not prove to be as efficacious as anticipated as measured by fall rate outcomes. Several factors that may account for the project's findings are discussed. [Journal of Psychosocial Nursing and Mental Health Services, 55(7), 20-29.]. Copyright 2017, SLACK Incorporated.

Principles for the formation of an effective concept of multifunctional high-rise construction investment projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beliakov, Sergei

2018-03-01

Investment projects of high-rise construction have a number of features that determine specific risks and additional opportunities that require analysis and accounting in the formation of an effective project concept. The most significant features of high-rise construction include long construction time, complexity of technical and technological solutions, complexity of decisions on the organization of construction and operation, high cost of construction and operation, complexity in determining the ratio of areas designed to accommodate different functional areas, when organizing and coordinating the operation of the facility, with internal zoning. Taking into account the specificity of high-rise construction, among the factors determining the effectiveness of projects, it is advisable to consider as key factors: organizational, technological and investment factors. Within the framework of the article, the author singled out key particular functions for each group of factors under consideration, and also developed a system of principles for the formation of an effective concept of multifunctional high-rise construction investment projects, including the principle of logistic efficiency, the principle of optimal functional zoning, the principle of efficiency of equipment use, the principle of optimizing technological processes, the principle maximization of income, the principle of fund management, the principle of risk management . The model of formation of an effective concept of investment projects of multifunctional high-rise construction developed by the author can contribute to the development of methodological tools in the field of managing the implementation of high-rise construction projects, taking into account their specificity in the current economic conditions.

Suitable areas of Phakopsora pachyrhizi, Spodoptera exigua, and their host plant Phaseolus vulgaris are projected to reduce and shift due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez-Cabral, Nadiezhda Yakovleva Zitz; Kumar, Lalit; Shabani, Farzin

2018-01-01

Worldwide, crop pests (CPs) such as pathogens and insects affect agricultural production detrimentally. Species distribution models can be used for projecting current and future suitability of CPs and host crop localities. Our study overlays the distribution of two CPs (Asian soybean rust and beet armyworm) and common bean, a potential host of them, in order to determine their current and future levels of coexistence. This kind of modeling approach has rarely been performed previously in climate change studies. The soybean rust and beet armyworm model projections herein show a reduction of the worldwide area with high and medium suitability of both CPs and a movement of them away from the Equator, in 2100 more pronounced than in 2050. Most likely, heat and dry stress will be responsible for these changes. Heat and dry stress will greatly reduce and shift the future suitable cultivation area of common bean as well, in a similar manner. The most relevant findings of this study were the reduction of the suitable areas for the CPs, the reduction of the risk under future scenarios, and the similarity of trends for the CPs and host. The current results highlight the relation between and the coevolution of host and pathogens.

The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two vectors of Chagas disease: implications for the force of infection.

PubMed

Medone, Paula; Ceccarelli, Soledad; Parham, Paul E; Figuera, Andreína; Rabinovich, Jorge E

2015-04-05

Chagas disease, caused by the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, is the most important vector-borne disease in Latin America. The vectors are insects belonging to the Triatominae (Hemiptera, Reduviidae), and are widely distributed in the Americas. Here, we assess the implications of climatic projections for 2050 on the geographical footprint of two of the main Chagas disease vectors: Rhodnius prolixus (tropical species) and Triatoma infestans (temperate species). We estimated the epidemiological implications of current to future transitions in the climatic niche in terms of changes in the force of infection (FOI) on the rural population of two countries: Venezuela (tropical) and Argentina (temperate). The climatic projections for 2050 showed heterogeneous impact on the climatic niches of both vector species, with a decreasing trend of suitability of areas that are currently at high-to-moderate transmission risk. Consequently, climatic projections affected differently the FOI for Chagas disease in Venezuela and Argentina. Despite the heterogeneous results, our main conclusions point out a decreasing trend in the number of new cases of Tr. cruzi human infections per year between current and future conditions using a climatic niche approach. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Human factors engineering in oil and gas--a review of industry guidance.

PubMed

Robb, Martin; Miller, Gerald

2012-01-01

Oil and gas exploration and production activities are carried out in hazardous environments in many parts of the world. Recent events in the Gulf of Mexico highlight those risks and underline the importance of considering human factors during facility design. Ergonomic factors such as machinery design, facility and accommodation layout and the organization of work activities have been systematically considered over the past twenty years on a limited number of offshore facility design projects to a) minimize the occupational risks to personnel, b) support operations and maintenance tasks and c) improve personnel wellbeing. During this period, several regulators and industry bodies such as the American Bureau of Shipping (ABS), the American Society of Testing and Materials (ASTM), the UK's Health and Safety Executive (HSE), Oil and Gas Producers (OGP), and Norway's Petroleum Safety Authority (PSA) have developed specific HFE design standards and guidance documents for the application of Human Factors Engineering (HFE) to the design and operation of Oil and Gas projects. However, despite the existence of these guidance and recommended design practise documents, and documented proof of their value in enhancing crew safety and efficiency, HFE is still not well understood across the industry and application across projects is inconsistent. This paper summarizes the key Oil and Gas industry bodies' HFE guidance documents, identifies recurring themes and current trends in the use of these standards, provides examples of where and how these HFE standards have been used on past major offshore facility design projects, and suggests criteria for selecting the appropriate HFE strategy and tasks for future major oil and gas projects. It also provides a short history of the application of HFE to the offshore industry, beginning with the use of ASTM F 1166 to a major operator's Deepwater Gulf of Mexico facility in 1990 and the application of HFE to diverse world regions. This latter point highlights the need to consider user populations when selecting HFE design criteria, an aspect strongly emphasized in current industry guidance.

Developing Novel Reservoir Rule Curves Using Seasonal Inflow Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tseng, Hsin-yi; Tung, Ching-pin

2015-04-01

Due to significant seasonal rainfall variations, reservoirs and their flexible operational rules are indispensable to Taiwan. Furthermore, with the intensifying impacts of climate change on extreme climate, the frequency of droughts in Taiwan has been increasing in recent years. Drought is a creeping phenomenon, the slow onset character of drought makes it difficult to detect at an early stage, and causes delays on making the best decision of allocating water. For these reasons, novel reservoir rule curves using projected seasonal streamflow are proposed in this study, which can potentially reduce the adverse effects of drought. This study dedicated establishing new rule curves which consider both current available storage and anticipated monthly inflows with leading time of two months to reduce the risk of water shortage. The monthly inflows are projected based on the seasonal climate forecasts from Central Weather Bureau (CWB), which a weather generation model is used to produce daily weather data for the hydrological component of the GWLF. To incorporate future monthly inflow projections into rule curves, this study designs a decision flow index which is a linear combination of current available storage and inflow projections with leading time of 2 months. By optimizing linear relationship coefficients of decision flow index, the shape of rule curves and the percent of water supply in each zone, the best rule curves to decrease water shortage risk and impacts can be developed. The Shimen Reservoir in the northern Taiwan is used as a case study to demonstrate the proposed method. Existing rule curves (M5 curves) of Shimen Reservoir are compared with two cases of new rule curves, including hindcast simulations and historic seasonal forecasts. The results show new rule curves can decrease the total water shortage ratio, and in addition, it can also allocate shortage amount to preceding months to avoid extreme shortage events. Even though some uncertainties in historic forecasts would result unnecessary discounts of water supply, it still performs better than M5 curves during droughts.

Evaluating Current and Future Rangeland Health in the Great Basin Ecoregion Using NASA Earth Observing Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Essoudry, E.; Wilson, K.; Ely, J.; Patadia, N.; Zajic, B.; Torres-Perez, J. L.; Schmidt, C.

2014-12-01

The Great Basin ecoregion in the western United States represents one of the last large expanses of wild lands in the nation and is currently facing significant challenges due to human impacts, drought, invasive species encroachment such as cheatgrass, and climate change. Rangelands in the Great Basin are of important ecological and economic significance for the United States; however, 40% of public rangelands fail to meet required health standards set by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). This project provided a set of assessment tools for researchers and land managers that integrate remotely-sensed and in situ datasets to quantify and mitigate threats to public lands in the Great Basin ecoregion. The study area, which accounts for 20% of the total Great Basin ecoregion, was analyzed using 30 m resolution data from Landsat 8. Present conditions were evaluated from vegetation indices, landscape features, hydrological processes, and atmospheric conditions derived from the remotely-sensed data and validated with available in situ ground survey data, provided by the BLM. Rangeland health metrics were developed and landscape change drivers were identified. Subsequently, projected climate conditions derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were used to forecast the impact of changing climatic conditions within the study area according to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections. These forecasted conditions were used in the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) to predict areas at risk for rangeland degradation on 30 year intervals for 2040, 2070, and 2100. Finally, vegetation health risk maps were provided to the project partners to aid in future land management decisions in the Great Basin ecoregion. These tools provide a low cost solution to assess landscape conditions, provide partners with a metric to identify potential problematic areas, and mitigate serious threats to the ecosystems.

Are different facets of plant diversity well protected against climate and land cover changes? A test study in the French Alps

PubMed Central

Thuiller, Wilfried; Guéguen, Maya; Georges, Damien; Bonet, Richard; Chalmandrier, Loïc; Garraud, Luc; Renaud, Julien; Roquet, Cristina; Van Es, Jérémie; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Lavergne, Sébastien

2014-01-01

Climate and land cover changes are important drivers of the plant species distributions and diversity patterns in mountainous regions. Although the need for a multifaceted view of diversity based on taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic dimensions is now commonly recognized, there are no complete risk assessments concerning their expected changes. In this paper, we used a range of species distribution models in an ensemble-forecasting framework together with regional climate and land cover projections by 2080 to analyze the potential threat for more than 2,500 plant species at high resolution (2.5 km × 2.5 km) in the French Alps. We also decomposed taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity facets into α and β components and analyzed their expected changes by 2080. Overall, plant species threats from climate and land cover changes in the French Alps were expected to vary depending on the species’ preferred altitudinal vegetation zone, rarity, and conservation status. Indeed, rare species and species of conservation concern were the ones projected to experience less severe change, and also the ones being the most efficiently preserved by the current network of protected areas. Conversely, the three facets of plant diversity were also projected to experience drastic spatial re-shuffling by 2080. In general, the mean α-diversity of the three facets was projected to increase to the detriment of regional β-diversity, although the latter was projected to remain high at the montane-alpine transition zones. Our results show that, due to a high-altitude distribution, the current protection network is efficient for rare species, and species predicted to migrate upward. Although our modeling framework may not capture all possible mechanisms of species range shifts, our work illustrates that a comprehensive risk assessment on an entire floristic region combined with functional and phylogenetic information can help delimitate future scenarios of biodiversity and better design its protection. PMID:25722539

NASA GeneLab Project: Bridging Space Radiation Omics with Ground Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beheshti, Afshin; Miller, Jack; Kidane, Yared H.; Berrios, Daniel; Gebre, Samrawit G.; Costes, Sylvain V.

2018-01-01

Accurate assessment of risk factors for long-term space missions is critical for human space exploration: therefore it is essential to have a detailed understanding of the biological effects on humans living and working in deep space. Ionizing radiation from Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) is one of the major risk factors factor that will impact health of astronauts on extended missions outside the protective effects of the Earth's magnetic field. Currently there are gaps in our knowledge of the health risks associated with chronic low dose, low dose rate ionizing radiation, specifically ions associated with high (H) atomic number (Z) and energy (E). The GeneLab project (genelab.nasa.gov) aims to provide a detailed library of Omics datasets associated with biological samples exposed to HZE. The GeneLab Data System (GLDS) currently includes datasets from both spaceflight and ground-based studies, a majority of which involve exposure to ionizing radiation. In addition to detailed information for ground-based studies, we are in the process of adding detailed, curated dosimetry information for spaceflight missions. GeneLab is the first comprehensive Omics database for space related research from which an investigator can generate hypotheses to direct future experiments utilizing both ground and space biological radiation data. In addition to previously acquired data, the GLDS is continually expanding as Omics related data are generated by the space life sciences community. Here we provide a brief summary of space radiation related data available at GeneLab.

A review on disaster risk mitigation in the oil and gas project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodhi, N. N.; Anwar, N.; Wiguna, I. P. A.

2018-01-01

In addition to the very complex risks, hazards potentially lead to disasters in the oil and gas projects. These risks can certainly be anticipated with the application of risk management, but an unsystematic and ineffective implementation of risk management will still bring adverse impacts. According to the eleven risk management principles in ISO 31000:2009, the application of risk management must pay attention to all aspects, both internal and external factors. Thus, this paper aims to identify variables that could affect the disaster mitigation efforts of oil and gas projects. This research began with literature study to determine the problems of risk management in oil and gas projects, so the affecting variables as the study objectives can be specified subsequently based on the literature review as well. The variables that must be considered in the efforts of disaster risk mitigation of oil and gas project are the risk factors and sustainability aspect.

Why projects often fail even with high cost contingencies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kujawski, Edouard

2002-02-28

In this note we assume that the individual risks have been adequately quantified and the total project cost contingency adequately computed to ensure an agreed-to probability or confidence level that the total project cost estimate will not be exceeded. But even projects that implement such a process are likely to result in significant cost overruns and/or project failure if the project manager allocates the contingencies to the individual subsystems. The intuitive and mathematically valid solution is to maintain a project-wide contingency and to distribute it to the individual risks on an as-needed basis. Such an approach ensures cost-efficient risk management,more » and projects that implement it are more likely to succeed and to cost less. We illustrate these ideas using a simplified project with two independent risks. The formulation can readily be extended to multiple risks.« less

CO 2 Sequestration and Enhanced Oil Recovery at Depleted Oil/Gas Reservoirs

DOE PAGES

Dai, Zhenxue; Viswanathan, Hari; Xiao, Ting; ...

2017-08-18

This study presents a quantitative evaluation of the operational and technical risks of an active CO 2-EOR project. A set of risk factor metrics is defined to post-process the Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for statistical analysis. The risk factors are expressed as measurable quantities that can be used to gain insight into project risk (e.g. environmental and economic risks) without the need to generate a rigorous consequence structure, which include (a) CO 2 injection rate, (b) net CO 2 injection rate, (c) cumulative CO 2 storage, (d) cumulative water injection, (e) oil production rate, (f) cumulative oil production, (g) cumulativemore » CH 4 production, and (h) CO 2 breakthrough time. The Morrow reservoir at the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) site, Texas, is used as an example for studying the multi-scale statistical approach for CO 2 accounting and risk analysis. A set of geostatistical-based MC simulations of CO 2-oil/gas-water flow and transport in the Morrow formation are conducted for evaluating the risk metrics. A response-surface-based economic model has been derived to calculate the CO 2-EOR profitability for the FWU site with a current oil price, which suggests that approximately 31% of the 1000 realizations can be profitable. If government carbon-tax credits are available, or the oil price goes up or CO 2 capture and operating expenses reduce, more realizations would be profitable.« less

CO 2 Sequestration and Enhanced Oil Recovery at Depleted Oil/Gas Reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dai, Zhenxue; Viswanathan, Hari; Xiao, Ting

This study presents a quantitative evaluation of the operational and technical risks of an active CO 2-EOR project. A set of risk factor metrics is defined to post-process the Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for statistical analysis. The risk factors are expressed as measurable quantities that can be used to gain insight into project risk (e.g. environmental and economic risks) without the need to generate a rigorous consequence structure, which include (a) CO 2 injection rate, (b) net CO 2 injection rate, (c) cumulative CO 2 storage, (d) cumulative water injection, (e) oil production rate, (f) cumulative oil production, (g) cumulativemore » CH 4 production, and (h) CO 2 breakthrough time. The Morrow reservoir at the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) site, Texas, is used as an example for studying the multi-scale statistical approach for CO 2 accounting and risk analysis. A set of geostatistical-based MC simulations of CO 2-oil/gas-water flow and transport in the Morrow formation are conducted for evaluating the risk metrics. A response-surface-based economic model has been derived to calculate the CO 2-EOR profitability for the FWU site with a current oil price, which suggests that approximately 31% of the 1000 realizations can be profitable. If government carbon-tax credits are available, or the oil price goes up or CO 2 capture and operating expenses reduce, more realizations would be profitable.« less

STGT program: Ada coding and architecture lessons learned

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Usavage, Paul; Nagurney, Don

1992-01-01

STGT (Second TDRSS Ground Terminal) is currently halfway through the System Integration Test phase (Level 4 Testing). To date, many software architecture and Ada language issues have been encountered and solved. This paper, which is the transcript of a presentation at the 3 Dec. meeting, attempts to define these lessons plus others learned regarding software project management and risk management issues, training, performance, reuse, and reliability. Observations are included regarding the use of particular Ada coding constructs, software architecture trade-offs during the prototyping, development and testing stages of the project, and dangers inherent in parallel or concurrent systems, software, hardware, and operations engineering.

Cascade Distillation System Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Callahan, Michael R.; Sargushingh, Miriam; Shull, Sarah

2014-01-01

NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Life Support System (LSS) Project is chartered with de-veloping advanced life support systems that will ena-ble NASA human exploration beyond low Earth orbit (LEO). The goal of AES is to increase the affordabil-ity of long-duration life support missions, and to re-duce the risk associated with integrating and infusing new enabling technologies required to ensure mission success. Because of the robust nature of distillation systems, the AES LSS Project is pursuing develop-ment of the Cascade Distillation Subsystem (CDS) as part of its technology portfolio. Currently, the system is being developed into a flight forward Generation 2.0 design.

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections for Exploration Missions: Uncertainty Reduction and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis; Badhwar, Gautam; Saganti, Premkumar; Schimmerling, Walter; Wilson, John; Peterson, Leif; Dicello, John

2002-01-01

In this paper we discuss expected lifetime excess cancer risks for astronauts returning from exploration class missions. For the first time we make a quantitative assessment of uncertainties in cancer risk projections for space radiation exposures. Late effects from the high charge and energy (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays including cancer and the poorly understood risks to the central nervous system constitute the major risks. Methods used to project risk in low Earth orbit are seen as highly uncertain for projecting risks on exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating HZE ion risks. Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions represents the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify risk projection overall uncertainty. Cancer risk analysis is applied to several exploration mission scenarios. At solar minimum, the number of days in space where career risk of less than the limiting 3% excess cancer mortality can be assured at a 95% confidence level is found to be only of the order of 100 days.

Sharp-tailed Grouse Restoration; Colville Tribes Restore Habitat for Sharp-tailed Grouse, Annual Report 2002-2003.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whitney, Richard

2004-01-01

Columbian Sharp-Tailed Grouse (Tympanuchus phasianellus columbianus) (CSTG) are an important traditional and cultural species to the Colville Confederated Tribes (CCT), Spokane Tribe of Indians (STOI), and other Tribes in the Region. They were once the most abundant upland bird in the Region. Currently, the largest remaining population in Washington State occurs on the CCT Reservation in Okanogan County. Increasing agricultural practices and other land uses has contributed to the decline of sharp-tail habitat and populations putting this species at risk. The decline of this species is not new (Yokum, 1952, Buss and Dziedzic, 1955, Zeigler, 1979, Meints 1991, and Crawfordmore » and Snyder 1994). The Tribes (CCT and STOI) are determined to protect, enhance and restore habitat for this species continued existence. When Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph Hydro-projects were constructed, inundated habitat used by this species was lost forever adding to overall decline. To compensate and prevent further habitat loss, the CCT proposed a project with Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) funding to address this species and their habitat requirements. The projects main focus is to address habitat utilized by the current CSTG population and determine ways to protect, restore, and enhance habitats for the conservation of this species over time. The project went through the NPPC Review Process and was funded through FY03 by BPA. This report addresses part of the current CCT effort to address the conservation of this species on the Colville Reservation.« less

A model for assessing the risk of human trafficking on a local level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colegrove, Amanda

Human trafficking is a human rights violation that is difficult to quantify. Models for estimating the number of victims of trafficking presented by previous researchers depend on inconsistent, poor quality data. As an intermediate step to help current efforts by nonprofits to combat human trafficking, this project presents a model that is not dependent on quantitative data specific to human trafficking, but rather profiles the risk of human trafficking at the local level through causative factors. Businesses, indicated by the literature, were weighted based on the presence of characteristics that increase the likelihood of trafficking in persons. The mean risk was calculated by census tract to reveal the multiplicity of risk levels in both rural and urban settings. Results indicate that labor trafficking may be a more diffuse problem in Missouri than sex trafficking. Additionally, spatial patterns of risk remained largely the same regardless of adjustments made to the model.

Continuous Risk Management at NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hammer, Theodore F.; Rosenberg, Linda

1999-01-01

NPG 7120.5A, "NASA Program and Project Management Processes and Requirements" enacted in April, 1998, requires that "The program or project manager shall apply risk management principles..." The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) at NASA GSFC has been tasked with the responsibility for developing and teaching a systems level course for risk management that provides information on how to comply with this edict. The course was developed in conjunction with the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, then tailored to the NASA systems community. This presentation will briefly discuss the six functions for risk management: (1) Identify the risks in a specific format; (2) Analyze the risk probability, impact/severity, and timeframe; (3) Plan the approach; (4) Track the risk through data compilation and analysis; (5) Control and monitor the risk; (6) Communicate and document the process and decisions. This risk management structure of functions has been taught to projects at all NASA Centers and is being successfully implemented on many projects. This presentation will give project managers the information they need to understand if risk management is to be effectively implemented on their projects at a cost they can afford.

The NASA Space Radiobiology Risk Assessment Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Huff, Janice; Ponomarev, Artem; Patel, Zarana; Kim, Myung-Hee

The current first phase (2006-2011) has the three major goals of: 1) optimizing the conventional cancer risk models currently used based on the double-detriment life-table and radiation quality functions; 2) the integration of biophysical models of acute radiation syndromes; and 3) the development of new systems radiation biology models of cancer processes. The first-phase also includes continued uncertainty assessment of space radiation environmental models and transport codes, and relative biological effectiveness factors (RBE) based on flight data and NSRL results, respectively. The second phase of the (2012-2016) will: 1) develop biophysical models of central nervous system risks (CNS); 2) achieve comphrensive systems biology models of cancer processes using data from proton and heavy ion studies performed at NSRL; and 3) begin to identify computational models of biological countermeasures. Goals for the third phase (2017-2021) include: 1) the development of a systems biology model of cancer risks for operational use at NASA; 2) development of models of degenerative risks, 2) quantitative models of counter-measure impacts on cancer risks; and 3) indiviudal based risk assessments. Finally, we will support a decision point to continue NSRL research in support of NASA's exploration goals beyond 2021, and create an archival of NSRL research results for continued analysis. Details on near term goals, plans for a WEB based data resource of NSRL results, and a space radiation Wikepedia are described.

Current Status of Programs and Research within the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bacon, Jack

2016-01-01

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) is the world's longest-standing orbital debris research organization. It supports all aspects of international and US national policy-making related to the orbital environment and to spacecraft life cycle requirements. Representing more than just NASA projects, it is the United States' center of expertise in the field. The office continues to advance research in all aspects of orbital debris, including its measurement, modeling, and risk assessment for both orbital and ground safety concerns. This presentation will highlight current activities and recent progress in all aspects of the ODPO's mission.

Climate change effects on wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and Great Lakes states predicted by a downscaled multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerr, Gaige Hunter; DeGaetano, Arthur T.; Stoof, Cathelijne R.; Ward, Daniel

2018-01-01

This study is among the first to investigate wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and the Great Lakes states under a changing climate. We use a multi-model ensemble (MME) of regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) together with the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) to understand changes in wildland fire risk through differences between historical simulations and future projections. Our results are relatively homogeneous across the focus region and indicate modest increases in the magnitude of fire weather indices (FWIs) during northern hemisphere summer. The most pronounced changes occur in the date of the initialization of CFFWIS and peak of the wildland fire season, which in the future are trending earlier in the year, and in the significant increases in the length of high-risk episodes, defined by the number of consecutive days with FWIs above the current 95th percentile. Further analyses show that these changes are most closely linked to expected changes in the focus region's temperature and precipitation. These findings relate to the current understanding of particulate matter vis-à-vis wildfires and have implications for human health and local and regional changes in radiative forcings. When considering current fire management strategies which could be challenged by increasing wildland fire risk, fire management agencies could adapt new strategies to improve awareness, prevention, and resilience to mitigate potential impacts to critical infrastructure and population.

An Exploratory Study of Risk Factors for Implementing Service-Oriented IS Projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Hsin-Lu; Lue, Chia-Pei

For IS project managers, how to implement the projects successfully is always a challenge. Further, as more and more enterprises start to develop service-oriented IS projects, it is essential to assess the sources and impacts of relevant risks. This research aimed at identifying risk factors related to service-oriented IS projects and analyzing the impact of these risk factors. Applying the SIMM (service integrated maturity model) proposed by IBM, customer service systems were selected to justify the research framework. Result showed that the risk factors influencing the adoption of service-oriented systems were insufficient technology planning, lack of expertise, ineffective project governance, and organizational misalignment, listed in the order of strength of influence. The findings of this research is expected to assist managers realize the risks and the importance of these risks that have to be noticed and controlled when making decisions on service-oriented systems adoption.

Heat Melt Compactor Development Progress

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Jeffrey M.; Fisher, John W.; Pace, Gregory

2017-01-01

The status of the Heat Melt Compactor (HMC) development project is reported. HMC Generation 2 (Gen 2) has been assembled and initial testing has begun. A baseline mission use case for trash volume reduction, water recovery, trash sterilization, and the venting of effluent gases and water vapor to space has been conceptualized. A test campaign to reduce technical risks is underway. This risk reduction testing examines the many varied operating scenarios and conditions needed for processing trash during a space mission. The test results along with performance characterization of HMC Gen 2 will be used to prescribe requirements and specifications for a future ISS flight Technology Demonstration. We report on the current status, technical risks, and test results in the context of an ISS vent-to-space Technology Demonstration.

[MaRS Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aruljothi, Arunvenkatesh

2016-01-01

The Space Exploration Division of the Safety and Mission Assurances Directorate is responsible for reducing the risk to Human Space Flight Programs by providing system safety, reliability, and risk analysis. The Risk & Reliability Analysis branch plays a part in this by utilizing Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Reliability and Maintainability (R&M) tools to identify possible types of failure and effective solutions. A continuous effort of this branch is MaRS, or Mass and Reliability System, a tool that was the focus of this internship. Future long duration space missions will have to find a balance between the mass and reliability of their spare parts. They will be unable take spares of everything and will have to determine what is most likely to require maintenance and spares. Currently there is no database that combines mass and reliability data of low level space-grade components. MaRS aims to be the first database to do this. The data in MaRS will be based on the hardware flown on the International Space Stations (ISS). The components on the ISS have a long history and are well documented, making them the perfect source. Currently, MaRS is a functioning excel workbook database; the backend is complete and only requires optimization. MaRS has been populated with all the assemblies and their components that are used on the ISS; the failures of these components are updated regularly. This project was a continuation on the efforts of previous intern groups. Once complete, R&M engineers working on future space flight missions will be able to quickly access failure and mass data on assemblies and components, allowing them to make important decisions and tradeoffs.

Estimating the financial risks of Andropogon gayanus to greenhouse gas abatement projects in northern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, Vanessa M.; Setterfield, Samantha A.

2013-06-01

Financial mechanisms such as offsets are one strategy to abate greenhouse gas emissions, and the carbon market is expanding with a growing demand for offset products. However, in the case of carbon offsets, if the carbon is released due to intentional or unintentional reversal through environmental events such as fire, the financial liability to replace lost offsets will likely fall on the provider. This liability may have implications for future participation in programmes, but common strategies such as buffer pool and insurance products can be used to minimize this liability. In order for these strategies to be effective, an understanding of the spatial and temporal distributions of expected reversals is needed. We use the case study of savanna burning, an approved greenhouse gas abatement methodology under the Carbon Farming Initiative in Australia, to examine potential risks to carbon markets in northern Australia and quantify the financial risks. We focus our analysis on the threat of Andropogon gayanus (gamba grass) to savanna burning due to its documented impacts of increased fuel loads and altered fire regimes. We assess the spatial and financial extent to which gamba grass poses a risk to savanna burning programmes in northern Australia. We find that 75% of the eligible area for savanna burning is spatially coincident with the high suitability range for gamba grass. Our analysis demonstrates that the presence of gamba grass seriously impacts the financial viability of savanna burning projects. For example, in order to recuperate the annual costs of controlling 1 ha of gamba grass infestation, 290 ha of land must be enrolled in annual carbon abatement credits. Our results show an immediate need to contain gamba grass to its current extent to avoid future spread into large expanses of land, which are currently profitable for savanna burning.

Modeling the habitat suitability for the arbovirus vector Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Germany.

PubMed

Koch, Lisa K; Cunze, Sarah; Werblow, Antje; Kochmann, Judith; Dörge, Dorian D; Mehlhorn, Heinz; Klimpel, Sven

2016-03-01

Climatic changes raise the risk of re-emergence of arthropod-borne virus outbreaks globally. These viruses are transmitted by arthropod vectors, often mosquitoes. Due to increasing worldwide trade and tourism, these vector species are often accidentally introduced into many countries beyond their former distribution range. Aedes albopictus, a well-known disease vector, was detected for the first time in Germany in 2007, but seems to have failed establishment until today. However, the species is known to occur in other temperate regions and a risk for establishment in Germany remains, especially in the face of predicted climate change. Thus, the goal of the study was to estimate the potential distribution of Ae. albopictus in Germany. We used ecological niche modeling in order to estimate the potential habitat suitability for this species under current and projected future climatic conditions. According to our model, there are already two areas in western and southern Germany that appear suitable for Ae. albopictus under current climatic conditions. One of these areas lies in Baden-Wuerttemberg, the other in North-Rhine Westphalia in the Ruhr region. Furthermore, projections under future climatic conditions show an increase of the modeled habitat suitability throughout Germany. Ae. albopictus is supposed to be better acclimated to colder temperatures than other tropical vectors and thus, might become, triggered by climate change, a serious threat to public health in Germany. Our modeling results can help optimizing the design of monitoring programs currently in place in Germany.

Risk management of PPP project in the preparation stage based on Fault Tree Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Yuanzhi; Guan, Qiuling

2017-03-01

The risk management of PPP(Public Private Partnership) project can improve the level of risk control between government departments and private investors, so as to make more beneficial decisions, reduce investment losses and achieve mutual benefit as well. Therefore, this paper takes the PPP project preparation stage venture as the research object to identify and confirm four types of risks. At the same time, fault tree analysis(FTA) is used to evaluate the risk factors that belong to different parts, and quantify the influencing degree of risk impact on the basis of risk identification. In addition, it determines the importance order of risk factors by calculating unit structure importance on PPP project preparation stage. The result shows that accuracy of government decision-making, rationality of private investors funds allocation and instability of market returns are the main factors to generate the shared risk on the project.

The 'bankability' of the new waste technologies: an econometric method for risk sharing in private finance waste contracts.

PubMed

Black, I; Seaton, R; Chackiath, S; Wagland, S T; Pollard, S J T; Longhurst, P J

2011-12-01

The identification of risk and its appropriate allocation to partners in project consortia is essential for minimizing overall project risks, ensuring timely delivery and maximizing benefit for money invested. Risk management guidance available from government bodies, especially in the UK, does not specify methodologies for quantitative risk assessment, nor does it offer a procedure for allocating risk among project partners. Here, a methodology to quantify project risk and potential approaches to allocating risk and their implications are discussed. Construction and operation of a waste management facility through a public-private finance contract are discussed. Public-private partnership contracts are special purpose vehicle (SPV) financing methods promoted by the UK government to boost private sector investment in facilities for public service enhancement. Our findings question the appropriateness of using standard deviation as a measure for project risk and confirm the concept of portfolio theory, suggesting the pooling of risk can reduce total risk and its impact.

Impacts of rising sea temperature on krill increase risks for predators in the Scotia Sea.

PubMed

Klein, Emily S; Hill, Simeon L; Hinke, Jefferson T; Phillips, Tony; Watters, George M

2018-01-01

Climate change is a threat to marine ecosystems and the services they provide, and reducing fishing pressure is one option for mitigating the overall consequences for marine biota. We used a minimally realistic ecosystem model to examine how projected effects of ocean warming on the growth of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, might affect populations of krill and dependent predators (whales, penguins, seals, and fish) in the Scotia Sea. We also investigated the potential to mitigate depletion risk for predators by curtailing krill fishing at different points in the 21st century. The projected effects of ocean warming on krill biomass were strongest in the northern Scotia Sea, with a ≥40% decline in the mass of individual krill. Projections also suggest a 25% chance that krill biomass will fall below an established depletion threshold (75% of its unimpacted level), with consequent risks for some predator populations, especially penguins. Average penguin abundance declined by up to 30% of its unimpacted level, with up to a 50% chance of falling below the depletion threshold. Simulated krill fishing at currently permitted harvest rates further increased risks for depletion, and stopping fishing offset the increased risks associated with ocean warming in our model to some extent. These results varied by location and species group. Risk reductions at smaller spatial scales also differed from those at the regional level, which suggests that some predator populations may be more vulnerable than others to future changes in krill biomass. However, impacts on predators did not always map directly to those for krill. Our findings indicate the importance of identifying vulnerable marine populations and targeting protection measures at appropriate spatial scales, and the potential for spatially-structured management to avoid aggravating risks associated with rising ocean temperatures. This may help balance tradeoffs among marine ecosystem services in an uncertain future.

Impacts of rising sea temperature on krill increase risks for predators in the Scotia Sea

PubMed Central

Hill, Simeon L.; Hinke, Jefferson T.; Phillips, Tony; Watters, George M.

2018-01-01

Climate change is a threat to marine ecosystems and the services they provide, and reducing fishing pressure is one option for mitigating the overall consequences for marine biota. We used a minimally realistic ecosystem model to examine how projected effects of ocean warming on the growth of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, might affect populations of krill and dependent predators (whales, penguins, seals, and fish) in the Scotia Sea. We also investigated the potential to mitigate depletion risk for predators by curtailing krill fishing at different points in the 21st century. The projected effects of ocean warming on krill biomass were strongest in the northern Scotia Sea, with a ≥40% decline in the mass of individual krill. Projections also suggest a 25% chance that krill biomass will fall below an established depletion threshold (75% of its unimpacted level), with consequent risks for some predator populations, especially penguins. Average penguin abundance declined by up to 30% of its unimpacted level, with up to a 50% chance of falling below the depletion threshold. Simulated krill fishing at currently permitted harvest rates further increased risks for depletion, and stopping fishing offset the increased risks associated with ocean warming in our model to some extent. These results varied by location and species group. Risk reductions at smaller spatial scales also differed from those at the regional level, which suggests that some predator populations may be more vulnerable than others to future changes in krill biomass. However, impacts on predators did not always map directly to those for krill. Our findings indicate the importance of identifying vulnerable marine populations and targeting protection measures at appropriate spatial scales, and the potential for spatially-structured management to avoid aggravating risks associated with rising ocean temperatures. This may help balance tradeoffs among marine ecosystem services in an uncertain future. PMID:29385153

Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon Monica; Reveley, Mary S.; Luxhoj, James T.

2012-01-01

Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

Reducing Risk for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

John M. Beck II; Harold J. Heydt; Emmanuel O. Opare

2010-07-01

The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project, managed by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL), is directed by the Energy Policy Act of 2005, to research, develop, design, construct, and operate a prototype forth generation nuclear reactor to meet the needs of the 21st Century. As with all large projects developing and deploying new technologies, the NGNP has numerous risks that need to be identified, tracked, mitigated, and reduced in order for successful project completion. A Risk Management Plan (RMP) was created to outline the process the INL is using to manage the risks and reduction strategies for the NGNP Project.more » Integral to the RMP is the development and use of a Risk Management System (RMS). The RMS is a tool that supports management and monitoring of the project risks. The RMS does not only contain a risk register, but other functionality that allows decision makers, engineering staff, and technology researchers to review and monitor the risks as the project matures.« less

Factors predicting high estimated 10-year stroke risk: thai epidemiologic stroke study.

PubMed

Hanchaiphiboolkul, Suchat; Puthkhao, Pimchanok; Towanabut, Somchai; Tantirittisak, Tasanee; Wangphonphatthanasiri, Khwanrat; Termglinchan, Thanes; Nidhinandana, Samart; Suwanwela, Nijasri Charnnarong; Poungvarin, Niphon

2014-08-01

The purpose of the study was to determine the factors predicting high estimated 10-year stroke risk based on a risk score, and among the risk factors comprising the risk score, which factors had a greater impact on the estimated risk. Thai Epidemiologic Stroke study was a community-based cohort study, which recruited participants from the general population from 5 regions of Thailand. Cross-sectional baseline data of 16,611 participants aged 45-69 years who had no history of stroke were included in this analysis. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify the predictors of high estimated 10-year stroke risk based on the risk score of the Japan Public Health Center Study, which estimated the projected 10-year risk of incident stroke. Educational level, low personal income, occupation, geographic area, alcohol consumption, and hypercholesterolemia were significantly associated with high estimated 10-year stroke risk. Among these factors, unemployed/house work class had the highest odds ratio (OR, 3.75; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.47-5.69) followed by illiterate class (OR, 2.30; 95% CI, 1.44-3.66). Among risk factors comprising the risk score, the greatest impact as a stroke risk factor corresponded to age, followed by male sex, diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, and current smoking. Socioeconomic status, in particular, unemployed/house work and illiterate class, might be good proxy to identify the individuals at higher risk of stroke. The most powerful risk factors were older age, male sex, diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, and current smoking. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Downscaling MODIS Land Surface Temperature for Urban Public Health Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad; Crosson, William; Estes, Maurice, Jr.; Estes, Sue; Quattrochi, Dale; Johnson, Daniel

2013-01-01

This study is part of a project funded by the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Program, which focuses on Earth science applications of remote sensing data for enhancing public health decision-making. Heat related death is currently the number one weather-related killer in the United States. Mortality from these events is expected to increase as a function of climate change. This activity sought to augment current Heat Watch/Warning Systems (HWWS) with NASA remotely sensed data, and models used in conjunction with socioeconomic and heatrelated mortality data. The current HWWS do not take into account intra-urban spatial variation in risk assessment. The purpose of this effort is to evaluate a potential method to improve spatial delineation of risk from extreme heat events in urban environments by integrating sociodemographic risk factors with estimates of land surface temperature (LST) derived from thermal remote sensing data. In order to further improve the consideration of intra-urban variations in risk from extreme heat, we also developed and evaluated a number of spatial statistical techniques for downscaling the 1-km daily MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST data to 60 m using Landsat-derived LST data, which have finer spatial but coarser temporal resolution than MODIS. In this paper, we will present these techniques, which have been demonstrated and validated for Phoenix, AZ using data from the summers of 2000-2006.

Dominant forest tree species are potentially vulnerable to climate change over large portions of their range even at high latitudes

PubMed Central

de Blois, Sylvie

2016-01-01

Projecting suitable conditions for a species as a function of future climate provides a reasonable, although admittedly imperfect, spatially explicit estimate of species vulnerability associated with climate change. Projections emphasizing range shifts at continental scale, however, can mask contrasting patterns at local or regional scale where management and policy decisions are made. Moreover, models usually show potential for areas to become climatically unsuitable, remain suitable, or become suitable for a particular species with climate change, but each of these outcomes raises markedly different ecological and management issues. Managing forest decline at sites where climatic stress is projected to increase is likely to be the most immediate challenge resulting from climate change. Here we assess habitat suitability with climate change for five dominant tree species of eastern North American forests, focusing on areas of greatest vulnerability (loss of suitability in the baseline range) in Quebec (Canada) rather than opportunities (increase in suitability). Results show that these species are at risk of maladaptation over a remarkably large proportion of their baseline range. Depending on species, 5–21% of currently climatically suitable habitats are projected to be at risk of becoming unsuitable. This suggests that species that have traditionally defined whole regional vegetation assemblages could become less adapted to these regions, with significant impact on ecosystems and forest economy. In spite of their well-recognised limitations and the uncertainty that remains, regionally-explicit risk assessment approaches remain one of the best options to convey that message and the need for climate policies and forest management adaptation strategies. PMID:27478706

Dominant forest tree species are potentially vulnerable to climate change over large portions of their range even at high latitudes.

PubMed

Périé, Catherine; de Blois, Sylvie

2016-01-01

Projecting suitable conditions for a species as a function of future climate provides a reasonable, although admittedly imperfect, spatially explicit estimate of species vulnerability associated with climate change. Projections emphasizing range shifts at continental scale, however, can mask contrasting patterns at local or regional scale where management and policy decisions are made. Moreover, models usually show potential for areas to become climatically unsuitable, remain suitable, or become suitable for a particular species with climate change, but each of these outcomes raises markedly different ecological and management issues. Managing forest decline at sites where climatic stress is projected to increase is likely to be the most immediate challenge resulting from climate change. Here we assess habitat suitability with climate change for five dominant tree species of eastern North American forests, focusing on areas of greatest vulnerability (loss of suitability in the baseline range) in Quebec (Canada) rather than opportunities (increase in suitability). Results show that these species are at risk of maladaptation over a remarkably large proportion of their baseline range. Depending on species, 5-21% of currently climatically suitable habitats are projected to be at risk of becoming unsuitable. This suggests that species that have traditionally defined whole regional vegetation assemblages could become less adapted to these regions, with significant impact on ecosystems and forest economy. In spite of their well-recognised limitations and the uncertainty that remains, regionally-explicit risk assessment approaches remain one of the best options to convey that message and the need for climate policies and forest management adaptation strategies.

Hazard identification, dose-response and environmental characteristics of stachybotryotoxins and other health-related products from Stachybotrys.

PubMed

Lai, K M

2006-03-01

An extensive growth of Stachybotrys in water-damaged buildings is of great public health concern. It is inconclusive whether Stachybotrys is responsible for the reported health effects on the occupants in these contaminated environments. However, based on the veterinary, occupational and laboratory toxicity studies, it is reasonable to project that Stachybotrys can cause adverse health responses once the toxic level of the corresponding agents reached the target systems. In order to assess the risk to occupants in contaminated buildings, it is essential to outline and collect information for risk assessment. This review paper presents the current information in the format of hazard identification, dose-response and environmental characteristics and aims to discuss existing information with researchers and risk assessors and help to conduct risk characterization under different indoor conditions.

Performance of diagnosis-based risk adjustment measures in a population of sick Australians.

PubMed

Duckett, S J; Agius, P A

2002-12-01

Australia is beginning to explore 'managed competition' as an organising framework for the health care system. This requires setting fair capitation rates, i.e. rates that adjust for the risk profile of covered lives. This paper tests two US-developed risk adjustment approaches using Australian data. Data from the 'co-ordinated care' dataset (which incorporates all service costs of 16,538 participants in a large health service research project conducted in 1996-99) were grouped into homogenous risk categories using risk adjustment 'grouper software'. The grouper products yielded three sets of homogenous categories: Diagnostic Groups and Diagnostic cost Groups. A two-stage analysis of predictive power was used: probability of any service use in the concurrent year, next year and the year after (logistic regression) and, for service users, a regression of logged cost of service use. The independent variables were diagnosis gender, a SES variable and the Age, gender and diagnosis-based risk adjustment measures explain around 40-45% of variation in costs of service use in the current year for untrimmed data (compared with around 15% for age and gender alone). Prediction of subsequent use is much poorer (around 20%). Using more information to assign people to risk categories generally improves prediction. Predictive power of diagnosis-base risk adjusters on this Australian dataset is similar to that found in Low predictive power carries policy risks of cream skimming rather than managing population health and care. Competitive funding models with risk adjustment on prior year experience could reduce system efficiency if implemented with current risk adjustment technology.

Projections of preventable risks for cardiovascular disease in Canada to 2021: a microsimulation modelling approach

PubMed Central

Manuel, Douglas G.; Tuna, Meltem; Hennessy, Deirdre; Okhmatovskaia, Anya; Finès, Philippe; Tanuseputro, Peter; Tu, Jack V.; Flanagan, William

2014-01-01

Background Reductions in preventable risks associated with cardiovascular disease have contributed to a steady decrease in its incidence over the past 50 years in most developed countries. However, it is unclear whether this trend will continue. Our objective was to examine future risk by projecting trends in preventable risk factors in Canada to 2021. Methods We created a population-based microsimulation model using national data on births, deaths and migration; socioeconomic data; cardiovascular disease risk factors; and algorithms for changes in these risk factors (based on sociodemographic characteristics and previous cardiovascular disease risk). An initial population of 22.5 million people, representing the Canadian adult population in 2001, had 13 characteristics including the risk factors used in clinical risk prediction. There were 6.1 million potential exposure profiles for each person each year. Outcome measures included annual prevalence of risk factors (smoking, obesity, diabetes, hypertension and lipid levels) and of co-occurring risks. Results From 2003 to 2009, the projected risks of cardiovascular disease based on the microsimulation model closely approximated those based on national surveys. Except for obesity and diabetes, all risk factors were projected to decrease through to 2021. The largest projected decreases were for the prevalence of smoking (from 25.7% in 2001 to 17.7% in 2021) and uncontrolled hypertension (from 16.1% to 10.8%). Between 2015 and 2017, obesity was projected to surpass smoking as the most prevalent risk factor. Interpretation Risks of cardiovascular disease are projected to decrease modestly in Canada, leading to a likely continuing decline in its incidence. PMID:25077135

Europe/Latin America Report, Science and Technology.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-02-09

Flesh Project is very exciting It concerns producing a yeast for trout and salmon feed which contains the natural red pigment astaxanthin . This is...environment or in respect of the resultant products. It states that, for the majority of cases, the levels of physical and bio* logical containment laid...October 1984 and is currently before Council, Existing Community legislation already covers the protec- tion of workers from the risks related to

The acceptability and feasibility of the Positive Reinforcement Opportunity Project, a community-based contingency management methamphetamine treatment program for gay and bisexual men in San Francisco.

PubMed

Strona, Frank V; McCright, Jacque; Hjord, Hanna; Ahrens, Katherine; Tierney, Steven; Shoptaw, Steven; Klausner, Jeffrey D

2006-11-01

The Positive Reinforcement Opportunity Project (PROP) was a pilot program developed to build on the efficacy of contingency management (CM) using positive reinforcement to address the treatment needs of gay and bisexual men currently using crystal methamphetamines (meth). It was hypothesized that a version of CM could be implemented in San Francisco that was less costly than traditional treatment methods and reached gay and other MSM using meth who also engaged in high-risk sexual activity. Of the 178 men who participated in PROPfrom December 2003 to December 2005, many self-reported behaviors for acquiring and spreading sexually transmitted diseases including HIV infection. During the initial intake, 73% reported high-risk sexual behavior in the prior three months, with 60% reporting anal receptive and/or insertive sex without condoms. This report describes the implementation of PROP and suggest both its limitations and potential strengths. Initial findings suggest that PROP was a useful and low cost substance use treatment option that resulted in a 35% 90-day completion rate, which is similar to graduation rates from traditional, more costly treatment options. Further evaluation of the limited data from three- and six-month follow-up of those who completed PROP is currently ongoing.

Risk and vulnerability to ENSO flooding in the Peruvian Atacama Desert: paleofloods, floodplain development, and agrarian strategies during the late Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magilligan, F. J.; Goldstien, P.

2011-12-01

River restoration projects with the goal of restoring a wide range of morphologic and ecologic channel processes and functions have become common. The complex interactions between flow and sediment-transport make it challenging to design river channels that are both self-sustaining and improve ecosystem function. The relative immaturity of the field of river restoration and shortcomings in existing methodologies for evaluating channel designs contribute to this problem, often leading to project failures. The call for increased monitoring of constructed channels to evaluate which restoration techniques do and do not work is ubiquitous and may lead to improved channel restoration projects. However, an alternative approach is to detect project flaws before the channels are built by using numerical models to simulate hydraulic and sediment-transport processes and habitat in the proposed channel (Restoration Design Analysis). Multi-dimensional models provide spatially distributed quantities throughout the project domain that may be used to quantitatively evaluate restoration designs for such important metrics as (1) the change in water-surface elevation which can affect the extent and duration of floodplain reconnection, (2) sediment-transport and morphologic change which can affect the channel stability and long-term maintenance of the design; and (3) habitat changes. These models also provide an efficient way to evaluate such quantities over a range of appropriate discharges including low-probability events which often prove the greatest risk to the long-term stability of restored channels. Currently there are many free and open-source modeling frameworks available for such analysis including iRIC, Delft3D, and TELEMAC. In this presentation we give examples of Restoration Design Analysis for each of the metrics above from projects on the Russian River, CA and the Kootenai River, ID. These examples demonstrate how detailed Restoration Design Analysis can be used to guide design elements and how this method can point out potential stability problems or other risks before designs proceed to the construction phase.

Advancing flood risk analysis by integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haer, T.; Botzen, W.; Aerts, J.

2016-12-01

In the last four decades the global population living in the 1/100 year-flood zone has doubled from approximately 500 million to a little less than 1 billion people. Urbanization in low lying -flood prone- cities further increases the exposed assets, such as buildings and infrastructure. Moreover, climate change will further exacerbate flood risk in the future. Accurate flood risk assessments are important to inform policy-makers and society on current- and future flood risk levels. However, these assessment suffer from a major flaw in the way they estimate flood vulnerability and adaptive behaviour of individuals and governments. Current flood risk projections commonly assume that either vulnerability remains constant, or try to mimic vulnerability through incorporating an external scenario. Such a static approach leads to a misrepresentation of future flood risk, as humans respond adaptively to flood events, flood risk communication, and incentives to reduce risk. In our study, we integrate adaptive behaviour in a large-scale European flood risk framework through an agent-based modelling approach. This allows for the inclusion of heterogeneous agents, which dynamically respond to each other and a changing environment. We integrate state-of-the-art flood risk maps based on climate scenarios (RCP's), and socio-economic scenarios (SSP's), with government and household agents, which behave autonomously based on (micro-)economic behaviour rules. We show for the first time that excluding adaptive behaviour leads to a major misrepresentation of future flood risk. The methodology is applied to flood risk, but has similar implications for other research in the field of natural hazards. While more research is needed, this multi-disciplinary study advances our understanding of how future flood risk will develop.

Offshore Energy Mapping for Northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean: MARINA PLATFORM project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallos, G.; Galanis, G.; Spyrou, C.; Kalogeri, C.; Adam, A.; Athanasiadis, P.

2012-04-01

Deep offshore ocean energy mapping requires detailed modeling of the wind, wave, tidal and ocean circulation estimations. It requires also detailed mapping of the associated extremes. An important issue in such work is the co-generation of energy (generation of wind, wave, tides, currents) in order to design platforms on an efficient way. For example wind and wave fields exhibit significant phase differences and therefore the produced energy from both sources together requires special analysis. The other two sources namely tides and currents have different temporal scales from the previous two. Another important issue is related to the estimation of the environmental frequencies in order to avoid structural problems. These are issues studied at the framework of the FP7 project MARINA PLATFORM. The main objective of the project is to develop deep water structures that can exploit the energy from wind, wave, tidal and ocean current energy sources. In particular, a primary goal will be the establishment of a set of equitable and transparent criteria for the evaluation of multi-purpose platforms for marine renewable energy. Using these criteria, a novel system set of design and optimisation tools will be produced addressing new platform design, component engineering, risk assessment, spatial planning, platform-related grid connection concepts, all focussed on system integration and reducing costs. The University of Athens group is in charge for estimation and mapping of wind, wave, tidal and ocean current resources, estimate available energy potential, map extreme event characteristics and provide any additional environmental parameter required.

Enabling More than Moore: Accelerated Reliability Testing and Risk Analysis for Advanced Electronics Packaging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghaffarian, Reza; Evans, John W.

2014-01-01

For five decades, the semiconductor industry has distinguished itself by the rapid pace of improvement in miniaturization of electronics products-Moore's Law. Now, scaling hits a brick wall, a paradigm shift. The industry roadmaps recognized the scaling limitation and project that packaging technologies will meet further miniaturization needs or ak.a "More than Moore". This paper presents packaging technology trends and accelerated reliability testing methods currently being practiced. Then, it presents industry status on key advanced electronic packages, factors affecting accelerated solder joint reliability of area array packages, and IPC/JEDEC/Mil specifications for characterizations of assemblies under accelerated thermal and mechanical loading. Finally, it presents an examples demonstrating how Accelerated Testing and Analysis have been effectively employed in the development of complex spacecraft thereby reducing risk. Quantitative assessments necessarily involve the mathematics of probability and statistics. In addition, accelerated tests need to be designed which consider the desired risk posture and schedule for particular project. Such assessments relieve risks without imposing additional costs. and constraints that are not value added for a particular mission. Furthermore, in the course of development of complex systems, variances and defects will inevitably present themselves and require a decision concerning their disposition, necessitating quantitative assessments. In summary, this paper presents a comprehensive view point, from technology to systems, including the benefits and impact of accelerated testing in offsetting risk.

To examine the effectiveness of a hospital-based nurse-led secondary prevention clinic.

PubMed

Mainie, Paula M; Moore, Gillian; Riddell, John W; Adgey, A A Jennifer

2005-12-01

Modification of cardiovascular risk factors can reduce the incidence of myocardial infarction (MI), effectively extend survival, decrease the need for interventional procedures, and improve quality of life in persons with known cardiovascular disease. Pharmacological treatments and important lifestyle changes reduce people's risks substantially (by 1/3 to 2/3) and can slow and perhaps reverse progression of established coronary disease. When used appropriately, these interventions are more cost-effective than many other treatments, currently provided by the National Health Service [Department of Health National Service Frameworks: coronary heart disease. Preventing coronary heart disease in high risk patients. 2000. HMSO.] Secondary prevention clinics are effective means by which to ensure targets are achieved and assist primary care in long-term maintenance of lifestyle change and drug optimisation. A 2-year hospital-based pilot project was established at the Royal Hospitals, April 2001-April 2003. The aim of the project was to target patients with coronary heart disease, post-MI and/or coronary artery bypass grafting and/or percutaneous coronary intervention, 6 months following their cardiac event. The plan was to assess patient risk factors and medication a minimum of 6 months following their cardiac event to ascertain if government targets were being achieved; secondly, to examine the effectiveness of a hospital-based nurse-led secondary prevention clinic on modifying risk factors and optimising drug therapies.

Potential risk levels of invasive Neoleucinodes elegantalis (small tomato borer) in areas optimal for open-field Solanum lycopersicum (tomato) cultivation in the present and under predicted climate change.

PubMed

da Silva, Ricardo Siqueira; Kumar, Lalit; Shabani, Farzin; Picanço, Marcelo Coutinho

2017-03-01

Neoleucinodes elegantalis is one of the major insect pests of Solanum lycopersicum. Currently, N. elegantalis is present only in America and the Caribbean, and is a threat in the world's largest S. lycopersicum-producing countries. In terms of potential impact on agriculture, the impact of climate change on insect invasions must be a concern. At present, no research exists regarding the effects of climatic change on the risk level of N. elegantalis. The purpose of this study was to develop a model for S. lycopersicum and N. elegantalis, utilizing CLIMEX to determine risk levels of N. elegantalis in open-field S. lycopersicum cultivation in the present and under projected climate change, using the global climate model CSIRO-Mk3.0. Large areas are projected to be suitable for N. elegantalis and optimal for open-field S. lycopersicum cultivation at the present time. However, in the future these areas will become unsuitable for both species. Conversely, other regions in the future may become optimal for open-field S. lycopersicum cultivation, with a varying risk level for N. elegantalis. The risk level results presented here provide a useful tool to design strategies to prevent the introduction and establishment of N. elegantalis in open-field S. lycopersicum cultivation. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Safety risk assessment using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) during planning and budgeting of construction projects.

PubMed

Aminbakhsh, Saman; Gunduz, Murat; Sonmez, Rifat

2013-09-01

The inherent and unique risks on construction projects quite often present key challenges to contractors. Health and safety risks are among the most significant risks in construction projects since the construction industry is characterized by a relatively high injury and death rate compared to other industries. In construction project management, safety risk assessment is an important step toward identifying potential hazards and evaluating the risks associated with the hazards. Adequate prioritization of safety risks during risk assessment is crucial for planning, budgeting, and management of safety related risks. In this paper, a safety risk assessment framework is presented based on the theory of cost of safety (COS) model and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The main contribution of the proposed framework is that it presents a robust method for prioritization of safety risks in construction projects to create a rational budget and to set realistic goals without compromising safety. The framework provides a decision tool for the decision makers to determine the adequate accident/injury prevention investments while considering the funding limits. The proposed safety risk framework is illustrated using a real-life construction project and the advantages and limitations of the framework are discussed. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maximizing Energy Savings Reliability in BC Hydro Industrial Demand-side Management Programs: An Assessment of Performance Incentive Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gosman, Nathaniel

For energy utilities faced with expanded jurisdictional energy efficiency requirements and pursuing demand-side management (DSM) incentive programs in the large industrial sector, performance incentive programs can be an effective means to maximize the reliability of planned energy savings. Performance incentive programs balance the objectives of high participation rates with persistent energy savings by: (1) providing financial incentives and resources to minimize constraints to investment in energy efficiency, and (2) requiring that incentive payments be dependent on measured energy savings over time. As BC Hydro increases its DSM initiatives to meet the Clean Energy Act objective to reduce at least 66 per cent of new electricity demand with DSM by 2020, the utility is faced with a higher level of DSM risk, or uncertainties that impact the costeffective acquisition of planned energy savings. For industrial DSM incentive programs, DSM risk can be broken down into project development and project performance risks. Development risk represents the project ramp-up phase and is the risk that planned energy savings do not materialize due to low customer response to program incentives. Performance risk represents the operational phase and is the risk that planned energy savings do not persist over the effective measure life. DSM project development and performance risks are, in turn, a result of industrial economic, technological and organizational conditions, or DSM risk factors. In the BC large industrial sector, and characteristic of large industrial sectors in general, these DSM risk factors include: (1) capital constraints to investment in energy efficiency, (2) commodity price volatility, (3) limited internal staffing resources to deploy towards energy efficiency, (4) variable load, process-based energy saving potential, and (5) a lack of organizational awareness of an operation's energy efficiency over time (energy performance). This research assessed the capacity of alternative performance incentive program models to manage DSM risk in BC. Three performance incentive program models were assessed and compared to BC Hydro's current large industrial DSM incentive program, Power Smart Partners -- Transmission Project Incentives, itself a performance incentive-based program. Together, the selected program models represent a continuum of program design and implementation in terms of the schedule and level of incentives provided, the duration and rigour of measurement and verification (M&V), energy efficiency measures targeted and involvement of the private sector. A multi criteria assessment framework was developed to rank the capacity of each program model to manage BC large industrial DSM risk factors. DSM risk management rankings were then compared to program costeffectiveness, targeted energy savings potential in BC and survey results from BC industrial firms on the program models. The findings indicate that the reliability of DSM energy savings in the BC large industrial sector can be maximized through performance incentive program models that: (1) offer incentives jointly for capital and low-cost operations and maintenance (O&M) measures, (2) allow flexible lead times for project development, (3) utilize rigorous M&V methods capable of measuring variable load, process-based energy savings, (4) use moderate contract lengths that align with effective measure life, and (5) integrate energy management software tools capable of providing energy performance feedback to customers to maximize the persistence of energy savings. While this study focuses exclusively on the BC large industrial sector, the findings of this research have applicability to all energy utilities serving large, energy intensive industrial sectors.

The use of cluster analysis techniques in spaceflight project cost risk estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox, G.; Ebbeler, D.; Jorgensen, E.

2003-01-01

Project cost risk is the uncertainty in final project cost, contingent on initial budget, requirements and schedule. For a proposed mission, a dynamic simulation model relying for some of its input on a simple risk elicitation is used to identify and quantify systemic cost risk.

Improving the scientific foundation for mixtures joint toxicity and risk assessment: contributions from the SOT mixtures project--introduction.

PubMed

Mason, Ann M; Borgert, Christopher J; Bus, James S; Moiz Mumtaz, M; Simmons, Jane Ellen; Sipes, I Glenn

2007-09-01

Risk assessments are enhanced when policy and other decision-makers have access to experimental science designed to specifically inform key policy questions. Currently, our scientific understanding and science policy for environmental mixtures are based largely on extrapolating from and combining data in the observable range of single chemical toxicity to lower environmental concentrations and composition, i.e., using higher dose data to extrapolate and predict lower dose toxicity. There is a growing consensus that the default assumptions underlying those mixtures risk assessments that are conducted in the absence of actual mixtures data rest on an inadequate scientific database. Future scientific research should both build upon the current science and advance toxicology into largely uncharted territory. More precise approaches to better characterize toxicity of mixtures are needed. The Society of Toxicology (SOT) sponsored a series of panels, seminars, and workshops to help catalyze and improve the design and conduct of experimental toxicological research to better inform risk assessors and decision makers. This paper summarizes the activities of the SOT Mixtures Program and serves as the introductory paper to a series of articles in this issue, which hope to inspire innovative research and challenge the status quo.

Physical activity and cardiorespiratory fitness as major markers of cardiovascular risk: their independent and interwoven importance to health status.

PubMed

Myers, Jonathan; McAuley, Paul; Lavie, Carl J; Despres, Jean-Pierre; Arena, Ross; Kokkinos, Peter

2015-01-01

The evolution from hunting and gathering to agriculture, followed by industrialization, has had a profound effect on human physical activity (PA) patterns. Current PA patterns are undoubtedly the lowest they have been in human history, with particularly marked declines in recent generations, and future projections indicate further declines around the globe. Non-communicable health problems that afflict current societies are fundamentally attributable to the fact that PA patterns are markedly different than those for which humans were genetically adapted. The advent of modern statistics and epidemiological methods has made it possible to quantify the independent effects of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and PA on health outcomes. Based on more than five decades of epidemiological studies, it is now widely accepted that higher PA patterns and levels of CRF are associated with better health outcomes. This review will discuss the evidence supporting the premise that PA and CRF are independent risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) as well as the interplay between both PA and CRF and other CVD risk factors. A particular focus will be given to the interplay between CRF, metabolic risk and obesity. Published by Elsevier Inc.

ASC-ATDM Performance Portability Requirements for 2015-2019

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Edwards, Harold C.; Trott, Christian Robert

This report outlines the research, development, and support requirements for the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC ) Advanced Technology, Development, and Mitigation (ATDM) Performance Portability (a.k.a., Kokkos) project for 2015 - 2019 . The research and development (R&D) goal for Kokkos (v2) has been to create and demonstrate a thread - parallel programming model a nd standard C++ library - based implementation that enables performance portability across diverse manycore architectures such as multicore CPU, Intel Xeon Phi, and NVIDIA Kepler GPU. This R&D goal has been achieved for algorithms that use data parallel pat terns including parallel - for, parallelmore » - reduce, and parallel - scan. Current R&D is focusing on hierarchical parallel patterns such as a directed acyclic graph (DAG) of asynchronous tasks where each task contain s nested data parallel algorithms. This five y ear plan includes R&D required to f ully and performance portably exploit thread parallelism across current and anticipated next generation platforms (NGP). The Kokkos library is being evaluated by many projects exploring algorithm s and code design for NGP. Some production libraries and applications such as Trilinos and LAMMPS have already committed to Kokkos as their foundation for manycore parallelism an d performance portability. These five year requirements includes support required for current and antic ipated ASC projects to be effective and productive in their use of Kokkos on NGP. The greatest risk to the success of Kokkos and ASC projects relying upon Kokkos is a lack of staffing resources to support Kokkos to the degree needed by these ASC projects. This support includes up - to - date tutorials, documentation, multi - platform (hardware and software stack) testing, minor feature enhancements, thread - scalable algorithm consulting, and managing collaborative R&D.« less

The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigg, M. A.; Birch, C. E.; Neal, J. C.; Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Yamazaki, D.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Pappenberger, F.; Dutra, E.; Ward, P. J.; Winsemius, H. C.; Salamon, P.; Dottori, F.; Rudari, R.; Kappes, M. S.; Simpson, A. L.; Hadzilacos, G.; Fewtrell, T. J.

2016-09-01

Quantifying flood hazard is an essential component of resilience planning, emergency response, and mitigation, including insurance. Traditionally undertaken at catchment and national scales, recently, efforts have intensified to estimate flood risk globally to better allow consistent and equitable decision making. Global flood hazard models are now a practical reality, thanks to improvements in numerical algorithms, global datasets, computing power, and coupled modelling frameworks. Outputs of these models are vital for consistent quantification of global flood risk and in projecting the impacts of climate change. However, the urgency of these tasks means that outputs are being used as soon as they are made available and before such methods have been adequately tested. To address this, we compare multi-probability flood hazard maps for Africa from six global models and show wide variation in their flood hazard, economic loss and exposed population estimates, which has serious implications for model credibility. While there is around 30%-40% agreement in flood extent, our results show that even at continental scales, there are significant differences in hazard magnitude and spatial pattern between models, notably in deltas, arid/semi-arid zones and wetlands. This study is an important step towards a better understanding of modelling global flood hazard, which is urgently required for both current risk and climate change projections.

Accident Precursor Analysis and Management: Reducing Technological Risk Through Diligence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phimister, James R. (Editor); Bier, Vicki M. (Editor); Kunreuther, Howard C. (Editor)

2004-01-01

Almost every year there is at least one technological disaster that highlights the challenge of managing technological risk. On February 1, 2003, the space shuttle Columbia and her crew were lost during reentry into the atmosphere. In the summer of 2003, there was a blackout that left millions of people in the northeast United States without electricity. Forensic analyses, congressional hearings, investigations by scientific boards and panels, and journalistic and academic research have yielded a wealth of information about the events that led up to each disaster, and questions have arisen. Why were the events that led to the accident not recognized as harbingers? Why were risk-reducing steps not taken? This line of questioning is based on the assumption that signals before an accident can and should be recognized. To examine the validity of this assumption, the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) undertook the Accident Precursors Project in February 2003. The project was overseen by a committee of experts from the safety and risk-sciences communities. Rather than examining a single accident or incident, the committee decided to investigate how different organizations anticipate and assess the likelihood of accidents from accident precursors. The project culminated in a workshop held in Washington, D.C., in July 2003. This report includes the papers presented at the workshop, as well as findings and recommendations based on the workshop results and committee discussions. The papers describe precursor strategies in aviation, the chemical industry, health care, nuclear power and security operations. In addition to current practices, they also address some areas for future research.

Future trends in flood risk in Indonesia - A probabilistic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muis, Sanne; Guneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Ward, Philip

2014-05-01

Indonesia is one of the 10 most populous countries in the world and is highly vulnerable to (river) flooding. Catastrophic floods occur on a regular basis; total estimated damages were US 0.8 bn in 2010 and US 3 bn in 2013. Large parts of Greater Jakarta, the capital city, are annually subject to flooding. Flood risks (i.e. the product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability) are increasing due to rapid increases in exposure, such as strong population growth and ongoing economic development. The increase in risk may also be amplified by increasing flood hazards, such as increasing flood frequency and intensity due to climate change and land subsidence. The implementation of adaptation measures, such as the construction of dykes and strategic urban planning, may counteract these increasing trends. However, despite its importance for adaptation planning, a comprehensive assessment of current and future flood risk in Indonesia is lacking. This contribution addresses this issue and aims to provide insight into how socio-economic trends and climate change projections may shape future flood risks in Indonesia. Flood risk were calculated using an adapted version of the GLOFRIS global flood risk assessment model. Using this approach, we produced probabilistic maps of flood risks (i.e. annual expected damage) at a resolution of 30"x30" (ca. 1km x 1km at the equator). To represent flood exposure, we produced probabilistic projections of urban growth in a Monte-Carlo fashion based on probability density functions of projected population and GDP values for 2030. To represent flood hazard, inundation maps were computed using the hydrological-hydraulic component of GLOFRIS. These maps show flood inundation extent and depth for several return periods and were produced for several combinations of GCMs and future socioeconomic scenarios. Finally, the implementation of different adaptation strategies was incorporated into the model to explore to what extent adaptation may be able to decrease future risks. Preliminary results show that the urban extent in Indonesia is projected to increase within 211 to 351% over the period 2000-2030 (5 and 95 percentile). Mainly driven by this rapid urbanization, potential flood losses in Indonesia increase rapidly and are primarily concentrated on the island of Java. The results reveal the large risk-reducing potential of adaptation measures. Since much of the urban development between 2000 and 2030 takes place in flood-prone areas, strategic urban planning (i.e. building in safe areas) may significantly reduce the urban population and infrastructure exposed to flooding. We conclude that a probabilistic risk approach in future flood risk assessment is vital; the drivers behind risk trends (exposure, hazard, vulnerability) should be understood to develop robust and efficient adaptation pathways.

Enabling responsible public genomics.

PubMed

Conley, John M; Doerr, Adam K; Vorhaus, Daniel B

2010-01-01

As scientific understandings of genetics advance, researchers require increasingly rich datasets that combine genomic data from large numbers of individuals with medical and other personal information. Linking individuals' genetic data and personal information precludes anonymity and produces medically significant information--a result not contemplated by the established legal and ethical conventions governing human genomic research. To pursue the next generation of human genomic research and commerce in a responsible fashion, scientists, lawyers, and regulators must address substantial new issues, including researchers' duties with respect to clinically significant data, the challenges to privacy presented by genomic data, the boundary between genomic research and commerce, and the practice of medicine. This Article presents a new model for understanding and addressing these new challenges--a "public genomics" premised on the idea that ethically, legally, and socially responsible genomics research requires openness, not privacy, as its organizing principle. Responsible public genomics combines the data contributed by informed and fully consenting information altruists and the research potential of rich datasets in a genomic commons that is freely and globally available. This Article examines the risks and benefits of this public genomics model in the context of an ambitious genetic research project currently under way--the Personal Genome Project. This Article also (i) demonstrates that large-scale genomic projects are desirable, (ii) evaluates the risks and challenges presented by public genomics research, and (iii) determines that the current legal and regulatory regimes restrict beneficial and responsible scientific inquiry while failing to adequately protect participants. The Article concludes by proposing a modified normative and legal framework that embraces and enables a future of responsible public genomics.

[Comparison between administrative and clinical databases in the evaluation of cardiac surgery performance].

PubMed

Rosato, Stefano; D'Errigo, Paola; Badoni, Gabriella; Fusco, Danilo; Perucci, Carlo A; Seccareccia, Fulvia

2008-08-01

The availability of two contemporary sources of information about coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) interventions, allowed 1) to verify the feasibility of performing outcome evaluation studies using administrative data sources, and 2) to compare hospital performance obtainable using the CABG Project clinical database with hospital performance derived from the use of current administrative data. Interventions recorded in the CABG Project were linked to the hospital discharge record (HDR) administrative database. Only the linked records were considered for subsequent analyses (46% of the total CABG Project). A new selected population "clinical card-HDR" was then defined. Two independent risk-adjustment models were applied, each of them using information derived from one of the two different sources. Then, HDR information was supplemented with some patient preoperative conditions from the CABG clinical database. The two models were compared in terms of their adaptability to data. Hospital performances identified by the two different models and significantly different from the mean was compared. In only 4 of the 13 hospitals considered for analysis, the results obtained using the HDR model did not completely overlap with those obtained by the CABG model. When comparing statistical parameters of the HDR model and the HDR model + patient preoperative conditions, the latter showed the best adaptability to data. In this "clinical card-HDR" population, hospital performance assessment obtained using information from the clinical database is similar to that derived from the use of current administrative data. However, when risk-adjustment models built on administrative databases are supplemented with a few clinical variables, their statistical parameters improve and hospital performance assessment becomes more accurate.

Success in large high-technology projects: What really works?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crosby, P.

2014-08-01

Despite a plethora of tools, technologies and management systems, successful execution of big science and engineering projects remains problematic. The sheer scale of globally funded projects such as the Large Hadron Collider and the Square Kilometre Array telescope means that lack of project success can impact both on national budgets, and collaborative reputations. In this paper, I explore data from contemporary literature alongside field research from several current high-technology projects in Europe and Australia, and reveal common `pressure points' that are shown to be key influencers of project control and success. I discuss the how mega-science projects sit between being merely complicated, and chaotic, and explain the importance of understanding multiple dimensions of project complexity. Project manager/leader traits are briefly discussed, including capability to govern and control such enterprises. Project structures are examined, including the challenge of collaborations. I show that early attention to building project resilience, curbing optimism, and risk alertness can help prepare large high-tech projects against threats, and why project managers need to understand aspects of `the silent power of time'. Mission assurance is advanced as a critical success function, alongside the deployment of task forces and new combinations of contingency plans. I argue for increased project control through industrial-style project reviews, and show how post-project reviews are an under-used, yet invaluable avenue of personal and organisational improvement. Lastly, I discuss the avoidance of project amnesia through effective capture of project knowledge, and transfer of lessons-learned to subsequent programs and projects.

Multi crop model climate risk country-level management design: case study on the Tanzanian maize production system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavez, E.

2015-12-01

Future climate projections indicate that a very serious consequence of post-industrial anthropogenic global warming is the likelihood of the greater frequency and intensity of extreme hydrometeorological events such as heat waves, droughts, storms, and floods. The design of national and international policies targeted at building more resilient and environmentally sustainable food systems needs to rely on access to robust and reliable data which is largely absent. In this context, the improvement of the modelling of current and future agricultural production losses using the unifying language of risk is paramount. In this study, we use a methodology that allows the integration of the current understanding of the various interacting systems of climate, agro-environment, crops, and the economy to determine short to long-term risk estimates of crop production loss, in different environmental, climate, and adaptation scenarios. This methodology is applied to Tanzania to assess optimum risk reduction and maize production increase paths in different climate scenarios. The simulations carried out use inputs from three different crop models (DSSAT, APSIM, WRSI) run in different technological scenarios and thus allowing to estimate crop model-driven risk exposure estimation bias. The results obtained also allow distinguishing different region-specific optimum climate risk reduction policies subject to historical as well as RCP2.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. The region-specific risk profiles obtained provide a simple framework to determine cost-effective risk management policies for Tanzania and allow to optimally combine investments in risk reduction and risk transfer.

Development of Bone Remodeling Model for Spaceflight Bone Physiology Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pennline, James A.; Werner, Christopher R.; Lewandowski, Beth; Thompson, Bill; Sibonga, Jean; Mulugeta, Lealem

2015-01-01

Current spaceflight exercise countermeasures do not eliminate bone loss. Astronauts lose bone mass at a rate of 1-2% a month (Lang et al. 2004, Buckey 2006, LeBlanc et al. 2007). This may lead to early onset osteoporosis and place the astronauts at greater risk of fracture later in their lives. NASA seeks to improve understanding of the mechanisms of bone remodeling and demineralization in 1g in order to appropriately quantify long term risks to astronauts and improve countermeasures. NASA's Digital Astronaut Project (DAP) is working with NASA's bone discipline to develop a validated computational model to augment research efforts aimed at achieving this goal.

Constellation Mission Operation Working Group: ESMO Maneuver Planning Process Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moyer, Eric

2015-01-01

The Earth Science Mission Operation (ESMO) Project created an Independent Review Board to review our Conjunction Risk evaluation process and Maneuver Planning Process to identify improvements that safely manages mission conjunction risks, maintains ground track science requirements, and minimizes overall hours expended on High Interest Events (HIE). The Review Board is evaluating the current maneuver process which requires support by multiple groups. In the past year, there have been several changes to the processes although many prior and new concerns exist. This presentation will discuss maneuver process reviews and Board comments, ESMO assessment and path foward, ESMO future plans, recent changes and concerns.

Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-08-01

Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...

Tools and Methods for Risk Management in Multi-Site Engineering Projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Mingwei; Nemes, Laszlo; Reidsema, Carl; Ahmed, Ammar; Kayis, Berman

In today's highly global business environment, engineering and manufacturing projects often involve two or more geographically dispersed units or departments, research centers or companies. This paper attempts to identify the requirements for risk management in a multi-site engineering project environment, and presents a review of the state-of-the-art tools and methods that can be used to manage risks in multi-site engineering projects. This leads to the development of a risk management roadmap, which will underpin the design and implementation of an intelligent risk mapping system.

Using Fuzzy Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Approach for Assessing the Risk of Railway Reconstruction Project in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Yu, Shih-Heng; Chang, Dong-Shang

2014-01-01

This study investigates the risk factors in railway reconstruction project through complete literature reviews on construction project risks and scrutinizing experiences and challenges of railway reconstructions in Taiwan. Based on the identified risk factors, an assessing framework based on the fuzzy multicriteria decision-making (fuzzy MCDM) approach to help construction agencies build awareness of the critical risk factors on the execution of railway reconstruction project, measure the impact and occurrence likelihood for these risk factors. Subjectivity, uncertainty and vagueness within the assessment process are dealt with using linguistic variables parameterized by trapezoid fuzzy numbers. By multiplying the degree of impact and the occurrence likelihood of risk factors, estimated severity values of each identified risk factor are determined. Based on the assessment results, the construction agencies were informed of what risks should be noticed and what they should do to avoid the risks. That is, it enables construction agencies of railway reconstruction to plan the appropriate risk responses/strategies to increase the opportunity of project success and effectiveness. PMID:24772014

Radiation Hardness Assurance (RHA): Challenges and New Considerations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campola, Michael J.

2017-01-01

Use of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) components and emerging technologies often require space flight missions to accept elevated risk. The Radiation Hardness Assurance (RHA) flow includes environment definition, hazard evaluation, requirements definition, evaluation of design, and design trades to accommodate and mitigate the risk a project or program takes. Depending on the mission profile and environment, different missions may not necessarily benefit from the same risk reduction efforts or cost reduction attempts. While this poses challenges for the radiation engineer, it also presents opportunities to tailor the RHA flow to minimize risk based on the environment or design criticality while remaining within budget. This presentation will focus on an approach to RHA amidst the present challenges, using the same RHA flow as in the past, with examples from recent radiation test results. The current challenges and the types of risk will be identified. How these risks drive requirements development and realization will be explained with examples of device results and data for single event effects (SEE) and in one case total ionizing dose (TID).

A review of risk management process in construction projects of developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahamid, R. A.; Doh, S. I.

2017-11-01

In the construction industry, risk management concept is a less popular technique. There are three main stages in the systematic approach to risk management in construction industry. These stages include: a) risk response; b) risk analysis and evaluation; and c) risk identification. The high risk related to construction business affects each of its participants; while operational analysis and management of construction related risks remain an enormous task to practitioners of the industry. This paper tends towards reviewing the existing literature on construction project risk managements in developing countries specifically on risk management process. The literature lacks ample risk management process approach capable of capturing risk impact on diverse project objectives. This literature review aims at discovering the frequently used techniques in risk identification and analysis. It also attempts to identify response to clarifying the different classifications of risk sources in the existing literature of developing countries, and to identify the future research directions on project risks in the area of construction in developing countries.

Working with South Florida County Planners to Understand and Mitigate Uncertain Climate Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knopman, D.; Groves, D. G.; Berg, N.

2017-12-01

This talk describes a novel approach for evaluating climate change vulnerabilities and adaptations in Southeast Florida to support long-term resilience planning. The work is unique in that it combines state-of-the-art hydrologic modeling with the region's long-term land use and transportation plans to better assess the future climate vulnerability and adaptations for the region. Addressing uncertainty in future projections is handled through the use of decisionmaking under deep uncertainty methods. Study findings, including analysis of key tradeoffs, were conveyed to the region's stakeholders through an innovative web-based decision support tool. This project leverages existing groundwater models spanning Miami-Dade and Broward Counties developed by the USGS, along with projections of land use and asset valuations for Miami-Dade and Broward County planning agencies. Model simulations are executed on virtual cloud-based servers for a highly scalable and parallelized platform. Groundwater elevations and the saltwater-freshwater interface and intrusion zones from the integrated modeling framework are analyzed under a wide range of long-term climate futures, including projected sea level rise and precipitation changes. The hydrologic hazards are then combined with current and future land use and asset valuation projections to estimate assets at risk across the range of futures. Lastly, an interactive decision support tool highlights the areas with critical climate vulnerabilities; distinguishes between vulnerability due to new development, increased climate hazards, or both; and provides guidance for adaptive management and development practices and decisionmaking in Southeast Florida.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berrington de Gonzalez, Amy, E-mail: berringtona@mail.nih.gov; Gilbert, Ethel; Curtis, Rochelle

Rapid innovations in radiation therapy techniques have resulted in an urgent need for risk projection models for second cancer risks from high-dose radiation exposure, because direct observation of the late effects of newer treatments will require patient follow-up for a decade or more. However, the patterns of cancer risk after fractionated high-dose radiation are much less well understood than those after lower-dose exposures (0.1-5 Gy). In particular, there is uncertainty about the shape of the dose-response curve at high doses and about the magnitude of the second cancer risk per unit dose. We reviewed the available evidence from epidemiologic studiesmore » of second solid cancers in organs that received high-dose exposure (>5 Gy) from radiation therapy where dose-response curves were estimated from individual organ-specific doses. We included 28 eligible studies with 3434 second cancer patients across 11 second solid cancers. Overall, there was little evidence that the dose-response curve was nonlinear in the direction of a downturn in risk, even at organ doses of ≥60 Gy. Thyroid cancer was the only exception, with evidence of a downturn after 20 Gy. Generally the excess relative risk per Gray, taking account of age and sex, was 5 to 10 times lower than the risk from acute exposures of <2 Gy among the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. However, the magnitude of the reduction in risk varied according to the second cancer. The results of our review provide insights into radiation carcinogenesis from fractionated high-dose exposures and are generally consistent with current theoretical models. The results can be used to refine the development of second solid cancer risk projection models for novel radiation therapy techniques.« less

Climate change induced risk analysis of Addis Ababa city (Ethiopia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalayer, Fatemeh; Herslund, Lise; Cavan, Gina; Printz, Andreas; Simonis, Ingo; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie; Hellevik, Siri; Fekade, Rebka; Nebebe, Alemu; Woldegerima, Tekle; Workalemahu, Liku; Workneh, Abraham; Yonas, Nebyou; Abebe Bekele, Essete; Yeshitela, Kumelachew

2013-04-01

CLUVA (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa; http://www.cluva.eu/) is a 3 years project, funded by the European Commission in 2010. Its objective is to develop context-centered methods to assess vulnerability and increase knowledge on managing climate related risks and to estimate the impacts of climate changes in the next 40 years at urban scale in Africa. The project downscales IPCC climate projections to evaluate threats to selected African test cities; mainly floods, sea-level rise, droughts, heat waves, desertification. It also evaluates and links: social vulnerability; urban green structures and ecosystem services; urban-rural interfaces; vulnerability of urban built environment and lifelines; and related institutional and governance dimensions of adaptation. CLUVA combines assessment approaches to investigate how cities, communities and households can resist and cope with, as well as recover from climate induced hazards. This multi-scale and multi-disciplinary qualitative, quantitative and probabilistic approach of CLUVA is currently being applied to selected African test cities (Addis Ababa - Ethiopia; Dar es Salaam - Tanzania; Douala - Cameroun; Ouagadougou - Burkina Faso; St. Louis - Senegal). In particular, the poster will report on the progresses of the Addis Ababa case study. Addis Ababa, the largest city in Ethiopia, is exposed to heat waves, drought, and, more recently, to flash floods. Due to undulating topography, poor waste management and the absence of sustainable storm water management, Addis Ababa is prone to severe flood events during the rainy seasons. Metropolitan Addis Ababa is crossed by several small watercourses. Torrential rains, very common during the rainy season, cause a sudden rise in the flow of these water courses, inundating and damaging the settlements along their banks and affecting the livelihood of the local population. The combination of climate change and development pressures are expected to exacerbate the current situation. The CLUVA research team - composed of climate and environmental scientists, engineers, risk management experts, urban planners and social scientists from both European and African institutions - has started to produce research outputs suitable for use in evidence-based planning activities in the case study cities. Indeed, climate change projections at 8 km resolution are ready for regions containing each of the case study cities; a preliminary hazard assessment for floods, drought and heat waves has already been performed, based on historical data; urban morphology and related green structures have been characterized; preliminary findings in social vulnerability have been achieved; a GIS based identification of Urban Residential hotspots to flooding is completed; and the vulnerability of informal settlements to flooding has been evaluated for one of the hotspots identified (Little Akaki case study area). Furthermore, a set of indicators relevant for Addis Ababa has been selected by local stakeholders to identify especially vulnerable, high risk areas and communities and an investigation of existing urban planning and governance systems and its interface with climate risks and vulnerability is ongoing. Evidence from the CLUVA project is being used to develop the next Master Plan for the Addis Ababa metropolitan area.

Financing Projects That Use Clean Energy Technologies: An Overview of Barriers and Opportunities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldman, D. P.; McKenna, J. J.; Murphy, L. M.

2005-10-01

Project finance is asset-based financing, meaning that the project lenders have recourse only to the underlying assets of a project. It involves both debt and equity, where the debt-to-equity ratio is typically large (e.g., 70% debt to 30% equity). Debt is used when available and when it is the least expensive form of financing, with equity still needed for credit worthiness. Most important, revenue from the project must be able to generate a return to the equity investors, and pay for interest and principal on the debt, transaction costs associated with developing and structuring the project, and operations and maintenancemore » costs. Successful project financing must provide a structure to manage and share risks in an optimal way that benefits all participants, allocating risks to those entities that are able to mitigate each specific risk, and to share information about putting risk management in the proper hands at the proper stage of project development. Contractual agreements are, thus, important in risk mitigation. Today's project financing typically involves the creation of a stand-alone project company that is the legal owner of the project assets, and that has contractual agreements with other parties.« less

Climate services in the tourism sector - examples and market research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damm, Andrea; Köberl, Judith; Prettenthaler, Franz; Kortschak, Dominik; Hofer, Marianne; Winkler, Claudia

2017-04-01

Tourism is one of the most weather-sensitive sectors. Hence, dealing with weather and climate risks is an important part of operational risk management. WEDDA® (WEather Driven Demand Analysis), developed by Joanneum Research, represents a comprehensive and flexible toolbox for managing weather and climate risks. Modelling the demand for products or services of a particular economic sector or company and its weather and climate sensitivity usually forms the starting and central point of WEDDA®. Coupling the calibrated demand models to either long-term climate scenarios or short-term weather forecasts enables the use of WEDDA® for the following areas of application: (i) implementing short-term forecasting systems for the prediction of the considered indicator; (ii) quantifying the weather risk of a particular economic sector or company using parameters from finance (e.g. Value-at-Risk); (iii) assessing the potential impacts of changing climatic conditions on a particular economic sector or company. WEDDA® for short-term forecasts on the demand for products or services is currently used by various tourism businesses, such as open-air swimming pools, ski areas, and restaurants. It supports tourism and recreation facilities to better cope with (increasing) weather variability by optimizing the disposability of staff, resources and merchandise according to expected demand. Since coping with increasing weather variability forms one of the challenges with respect to climate change, WEDDA® may become an important component within a whole pool of weather and climate services designed to support tourism and recreation facilities to adapt to climate change. Climate change impact assessments at European scale, as conducted in the EU-FP7 project IMPACT2C, provide basic information of climate change impacts on tourism demand not only for individual tourism businesses, but also for regional and national tourism planners and policy makers interested in benchmarks for the vulnerability of their tourism destination. In this project we analysed the impacts of +2 °C global warming on winter tourism demand in ski tourism related regions in Europe. In order to achieve the climate targets, tailored climate information services - for individual businesses as well as at the regional and national level - play an important role. The current market, however, is still in the early stages. In the ongoing H2020 projects EU-MACS (www.eu-macs.eu) and MARCO (www.marco-h2020.eu) (Nov 2016 - Oct 2018) Joanneum Research explores the climate services market in the tourism sector. The current use of climate services is reviewed in detail and in an interactive process key market barriers and enablers will be identified in close collaboration with stakeholders from the tourism industry. The analysis and co-development of new climate services concepts for the tourism sector aims to reduce the gaps between climate services supply and demand.

Risk Management Model in Surface Exploitation of Mineral Deposits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stojanović, Cvjetko

2016-06-01

Risk management is an integrative part of all types of project management. One of the main tasks of pre-investment studies and other project documentation is the tendency to protect investment projects as much as possible against investment risks. Therefore, the provision and regulation of risk information ensure the identification of the probability of the emergence of adverse events, their forms, causes and consequences, and provides a timely measures of protection against risks. This means that risk management involves a set of management methods and techniques used to reduce the possibility of realizing the adverse events and consequences and thus increase the possibilities of achieving the planned results with minimal losses. Investment in mining projects are of capital importance because they are very complex projects, therefore being very risky, because of the influence of internal and external factors and limitations arising from the socio-economic environment. Due to the lack of a risk management system, numerous organizations worldwide have suffered significant financial losses. Therefore, it is necessary for any organization to establish a risk management system as a structural element of system management system as a whole. This paper presents an approach to a Risk management model in the project of opening a surface coal mine, developed based on studies of extensive scientific literature and personal experiences of the author, and which, with certain modifications, may find use for any investment project, both in the mining industry as well as in investment projects in other areas.

Development of a module for Cost-Benefit analysis of risk reduction measures for natural hazards for the CHANGES-SDSS platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berlin, Julian; Bogaard, Thom; Van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Mostert, Eric; Dopheide, Emile

2014-05-01

Cost benefit analysis (CBA) is a well know method used widely for the assessment of investments either in the private and public sector. In the context of risk mitigation and the evaluation of risk reduction alternatives for natural hazards its use is very important to evaluate the effectiveness of such efforts in terms of avoided monetary losses. However the current method has some disadvantages related to the spatial distribution of the costs and benefits, the geographical distribution of the avoided damage and losses, the variation in areas that are benefited in terms of invested money and avoided monetary risk. Decision-makers are often interested in how the costs and benefits are distributed among different administrative units of a large area or region, so they will be able to compare and analyse the cost and benefits per administrative unit as a result of the implementation of the risk reduction projects. In this work we first examined the Cost benefit procedure for natural hazards, how the costs are assessed for several structural and non-structural risk reduction alternatives, we also examined the current problems of the method such as the inclusion of cultural and social considerations that are complex to monetize , the problem of discounting future values using a defined interest rate and the spatial distribution of cost and benefits. We also examined the additional benefits and the indirect costs associated with the implementation of the risk reduction alternatives such as the cost of having a ugly landscape (also called negative benefits). In the last part we examined the current tools and software used in natural hazards assessment with support to conduct CBA and we propose design considerations for the implementation of the CBA module for the CHANGES-SDSS Platform an initiative of the ongoing 7th Framework Programme "CHANGES of the European commission. Keywords: Risk management, Economics of risk mitigation, EU Flood Directive, resilience, prevention, cost benefit analysis, spatial distribution of costs and benefits

A New Time-varying Concept of Risk in a Changing Climate.

PubMed

Sarhadi, Ali; Ausín, María Concepción; Wiper, Michael P

2016-10-20

In a changing climate arising from anthropogenic global warming, the nature of extreme climatic events is changing over time. Existing analytical stationary-based risk methods, however, assume multi-dimensional extreme climate phenomena will not significantly vary over time. To strengthen the reliability of infrastructure designs and the management of water systems in the changing environment, multidimensional stationary risk studies should be replaced with a new adaptive perspective. The results of a comparison indicate that current multi-dimensional stationary risk frameworks are no longer applicable to projecting the changing behaviour of multi-dimensional extreme climate processes. Using static stationary-based multivariate risk methods may lead to undesirable consequences in designing water system infrastructures. The static stationary concept should be replaced with a flexible multi-dimensional time-varying risk framework. The present study introduces a new multi-dimensional time-varying risk concept to be incorporated in updating infrastructure design strategies under changing environments arising from human-induced climate change. The proposed generalized time-varying risk concept can be applied for all stochastic multi-dimensional systems that are under the influence of changing environments.

Robotic Lunar Landers For Science And Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, B. A.; Bassler, J. A.; Morse, B. J.; Reed, C. L. B.

2010-01-01

NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory have been conducting mission studies and performing risk reduction activities for NASA s robotic lunar lander flight projects. In 2005, the Robotic Lunar Exploration Program Mission #2 (RLEP-2) was selected as an ESMD precursor robotic lander mission to demonstrate precision landing and determine if there was water ice at the lunar poles; however, this project was canceled. Since 2008, the team has been supporting SMD designing small lunar robotic landers for science missions, primarily to establish anchor nodes of the International Lunar Network (ILN), a network of lunar geophysical nodes. Additional mission studies have been conducted to support other objectives of the lunar science community. This paper describes the current status of the MSFC/APL robotic lunar mission studies and risk reduction efforts including high pressure propulsion system testing, structure and mechanism development and testing, long cycle time battery testing, combined GN&C and avionics testing, and two autonomous lander test articles.

Biocides Steering Group on human exposure assessment: a preliminary report.

PubMed

van Hemmen, J J

1999-06-30

In a project granted by DG XI of the European Commission, it is attempted to collate experimental and theoretical data on human (workers and consumers) exposure assessment to biocidal products, and to outline the methodology for sampling and measurement. On the basis of the available evidence, approaches are presented for the exposure assessment to be used for estimation of risks in authorization procedures under the recently accepted Directive 98/8/EC. Gaps in knowledge are indicated, making it possible to study the issues involved in a comprehensive and cost-effective way. Some recommendations are given on how to best do this. The current project has been detailed in a final report.

[Application of risk grading and classification for occupational hazards in risk management for a shipbuilding project].

PubMed

Zeng, Wenfeng; Tan, Qiang; Wu, Shihua; Deng, Yingcong; Liu, Lifen; Wang, Zhi; Liu, Yimin

2015-12-01

To investigate the application of risk grading and classification for occupational hazards in risk management for a shipbuilding project. The risk management for this shipbuilding project was performed by a comprehensive application of MES evaluation, quality assessment of occupational health management, and risk grading and classification for occupational hazards, through the methods of occupational health survey, occupational health testing, and occupational health examinations. The results of MES evaluation showed that the risk of occupational hazards in this project was grade 3, which was considered as significant risk; Q value calculated by quality assessment of occupational health management was 0.52, which was considered to be unqualified; the comprehensive evaluation with these two methods showed that the integrated risk rating for this shipbuilding project was class D, and follow- up and rectification were needed with a focus on the improvement in health management. The application of MES evaluation and quality assessment of occupational health management in risk management for occupational hazards can achieve objective and reasonable conclusions and has good applicability.

Improving Tools and Processes in Mechanical Design Collaboration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Briggs, Clark

2009-01-01

Cooperative product development projects in the aerospace and defense industry are held hostage to high cost and risk due to poor alignment of collaborative design tools and processes. This impasse can be broken if companies will jointly develop implementation approaches and practices in support of high value working arrangements. The current tools can be used to better advantage in many situations and there is reason for optimism that tool vendors will provide significant support.

Project Scheduling Based on Risk of Gas Transmission Pipe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silvianita; Nurbaity, A.; Mulyadi, Y.; Suntoyo; Chamelia, D. M.

2018-03-01

The planning of a project has a time limit on which must be completed before or right at a predetermined time. Thus, in a project planning, it is necessary to have scheduling management that is useful for completing a project to achieve maximum results by considering the constraints that will exists. Scheduling management is undertaken to deal with uncertainties and negative impacts of time and cost in project completion. This paper explains about scheduling management in gas transmission pipeline project Gresik-Semarang to find out which scheduling plan is most effectively used in accordance with its risk value. Scheduling management in this paper is assissted by Microsoft Project software to find the critical path of existing project scheduling planning data. Critical path is the longest scheduling path with the fastest completion time. The result is found a critical path on project scheduling with completion time is 152 days. Furthermore, the calculation of risk is done by using House of Risk (HOR) method and it is found that the critical path has a share of 40.98 percent of all causes of the occurence of risk events that will be experienced.

Evaluation of Critical Care Monitor Technology During the US Navy Strong Angel Exercise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johannesen, John; Rasbury, Jack

2003-01-01

The NASA critical path road map identifies "trauma and acute medical problems" as a clinical capability risk category (http://criticalDath.isc.nasa.gov). Specific risks include major trauma, organ laceration or contusion, hemoperitoneum, pulmonary failure, pneumo- and hemothorax, burn, open bone fracture, blunt head trauma, and penetrating injury. Mitigation of these risks includes the capability for critical care monitoring. Currently, the International Space Station (ISS) Crew Health Care System (CHeCS) does not provide such a capability. The Clinical Space Medicine Strategic Planning Forum (4/8/97), sponsored by NASA Medical Operations, identified the development of trauma care capabilities as one of the top priorities for space medicine. The Clinical Care Capability Development Project (CCCDP) subsequently undertook the task to address this need.

The New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX) Project - An overview of its major findings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, Kevin; Zschau, Jochen; Gasparini, Paolo

2014-05-01

Recent major natural disasters, such as the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake, tsunami and subsequent Fukushima nuclear accident, have raised awareness of the frequent and potentially far-reaching interconnections between natural hazards. Such interactions occur at the hazard level, where an initial hazard may trigger other events (e.g., an earthquake triggering a tsunami) or several events may occur concurrently (or nearly so), e.g., severe weather around the same time as an earthquake. Interactions also occur at the vulnerability level, where the initial event may make the affected community more susceptible to the negative consequences of another event (e.g., an earthquake weakens buildings, which are then damaged further by windstorms). There is also a temporal element involved, where changes in exposure may alter the total risk to a given area. In short, there is the likelihood that the total risk estimated when considering multiple hazard and risks and their interactions is greater than the sum of their individual parts. It is with these issues in mind that the European Commission, under their FP7 program, supported the New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe or MATRIX project (10.2010 to 12.2013). MATRIX set out to tackle multiple natural hazards (i.e., those of concern to Europe, namely earthquakes, landslides, volcanos, tsunamis, wild fires, storms and fluvial and coastal flooding) and risks within a common theoretical framework. The MATRIX work plan proceeded from an assessment of single-type risk methodologies (including how uncertainties should be treated), cascade effects within a multi-hazard environment, time-dependent vulnerability, decision making and support for multi-hazard mitigation and adaption, and an assessment of how the multi-hazard and risk viewpoint may be integrated into current decision making and risk mitigation programs, considering the existing single-hazard and risk focus. Three test sites were considered during the project: Naples, Cologne, and the French West Indies. In addition, a software platform, the MATRIX-Common IT sYstem (MATRIX-CITY), was developed to allow the evaluation of characteristic multi-hazard and risk scenarios in comparison to single-type analyses. This presentation therefore outlines the more significant outcomes of the project, in particular those dealing with the harmonization of single-type hazards, cascade event analysis, time-dependent vulnerability changes and the response of the disaster management community to the MATRIX point of view.

A Framework for Integrating Knowledge Management with Risk Management for Information Technology Projects (RiskManiT)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karadsheh, Louay A.

2010-01-01

This research focused on the challenges experienced when executing risk management activities for information technology projects. The lack of adequate knowledge management support of risk management activities has caused many project failures in the past. The research objective was to propose a conceptual framework of the Knowledge-Based Risk…

Financial and tax risks at implementation of "Chayanda- Lensk" section of "Sila Sibiri" gas transportation system construction project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharf, I. V.; Chukhareva, N. V.; Kuznetsova, L. P.

2014-08-01

High social and economic importance of large-scale projects on gasification of East Siberian regions of Russia and diversifying gas exports poses the problem of complex risk analysis of the project. This article discusses the various types of risks that could significantly affect the timing of the implementation and effectiveness of the project for the construction of the first line of "Sila Sibiri", the "Chayanda-Lensk" section. Special attention is paid to financial and tax aspects of the project. Graphically presented analysis of the dynamics of financial indicators reflect certain periods of effectiveness in implementing the project. Authors also discuss the possible causes and consequences of risks.

Projected Impact of Compositional Verification on Current and Future Aviation Safety Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reveley, Mary S.; Withrow, Colleen A.; Leone, Karen M.; Jones, Sharon M.

2014-01-01

The projected impact of compositional verification research conducted by the National Aeronautic and Space Administration System-Wide Safety and Assurance Technologies on aviation safety risk was assessed. Software and compositional verification was described. Traditional verification techniques have two major problems: testing at the prototype stage where error discovery can be quite costly and the inability to test for all potential interactions leaving some errors undetected until used by the end user. Increasingly complex and nondeterministic aviation systems are becoming too large for these tools to check and verify. Compositional verification is a "divide and conquer" solution to addressing increasingly larger and more complex systems. A review of compositional verification research being conducted by academia, industry, and Government agencies is provided. Forty-four aviation safety risks in the Biennial NextGen Safety Issues Survey were identified that could be impacted by compositional verification and grouped into five categories: automation design; system complexity; software, flight control, or equipment failure or malfunction; new technology or operations; and verification and validation. One capability, 1 research action, 5 operational improvements, and 13 enablers within the Federal Aviation Administration Joint Planning and Development Office Integrated Work Plan that could be addressed by compositional verification were identified.

Current treatment trends and the need for better predictive tools in the management of ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast.

PubMed

Martínez-Pérez, Carlos; Turnbull, Arran K; Ekatah, Gregory E; Arthur, Laura M; Sims, Andrew H; Thomas, Jeremy S; Dixon, J Michael

2017-04-01

Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast represents a group of heterogeneous non-invasive lesions the incidence of which has risen dramatically since the advent of mammography screening. In this review we summarise current treatment trends and up-to-date results from clinical trials studying surgery and adjuvant therapy alternatives, including the recent consensus on excision margin width and its role in decision-making for post-excision radiotherapy. The main challenge in the clinical management of DCIS continues to be the tailoring of treatment to individual risk, in order to avoid the over-treatment of low-risk lesions or under-treatment of DCIS with higher risk of recurring or progressing into invasion. While studies estimate that only about 40% of DCIS would become invasive if untreated, heterogeneity and complex natural history have prevented adequate identification of these higher-risk lesions. Here we discuss attempts to develop prognostic tools for the risk stratification of DCIS lesions and their limitations. Early results of a UK-wide audit of DCIS management (the Sloane Project) have also demonstrated a lack of consistency in treatment. In this review we offer up-to-date perspectives on current treatment and prediction of DCIS, highlighting the pressing clinical need for better prognostic indices. Tools integrating both clinical and histopathological factors together with molecular biomarkers may hold potential for adequate stratification of DCIS according to risk. This could help develop standardised practices for optimal management of patients with DCIS, improving clinical outcomes while providing only the amount of therapy required for each individual patient. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic Causal Analysis for System Safety Risk Assessments in Commercial Air Transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luxhoj, James T.

2003-01-01

Aviation is one of the critical modes of our national transportation system. As such, it is essential that new technologies be continually developed to ensure that a safe mode of transportation becomes even safer in the future. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) is managing the development of new technologies and interventions aimed at reducing the fatal aviation accident rate by a factor of 5 by year 2007 and by a factor of 10 by year 2022. A portfolio assessment is currently being conducted to determine the projected impact that the new technologies and/or interventions may have on reducing aviation safety system risk. This paper reports on advanced risk analytics that combine the use of a human error taxonomy, probabilistic Bayesian Belief Networks, and case-based scenarios to assess a relative risk intensity metric. A sample case is used for illustrative purposes.

Personalizing annual lung cancer screening for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A decision analysis.

PubMed

Lowry, Kathryn P; Gazelle, G Scott; Gilmore, Michael E; Johanson, Colden; Munshi, Vidit; Choi, Sung Eun; Tramontano, Angela C; Kong, Chung Yin; McMahon, Pamela M

2015-05-15

Lung cancer screening with annual chest computed tomography (CT) is recommended for current and former smokers with a ≥30-pack-year smoking history. Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at increased risk of developing lung cancer and may benefit from screening at lower pack-year thresholds. We used a previously validated simulation model to compare the health benefits of lung cancer screening in current and former smokers ages 55-80 with ≥30 pack-years with hypothetical programs using lower pack-year thresholds for individuals with COPD (≥20, ≥10, and ≥1 pack-years). Calibration targets for COPD prevalence and associated lung cancer risk were derived using the Framingham Offspring Study limited data set. We performed sensitivity analyses to evaluate the stability of results across different rates of adherence to screening, increased competing mortality risk from COPD, and increased surgical ineligibility in individuals with COPD. The primary outcome was projected life expectancy. Programs using lower pack-year thresholds for individuals with COPD yielded the highest life expectancy gains for a given number of screens. Highest life expectancy was achieved when lowering the pack-year threshold to ≥1 pack-year for individuals with COPD, which dominated all other screening strategies. These results were stable across different adherence rates to screening and increases in competing mortality risk for COPD and surgical ineligibility. Current and former smokers with COPD may disproportionately benefit from lung cancer screening. A lower pack-year threshold for screening eligibility may benefit this high-risk patient population. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

Dry gas vents (“mazuku”) in Goma region (North-Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo): Formation and risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smets, Benoît; Tedesco, Dario; Kervyn, François; Kies, Antoine; Vaselli, Orlando; Yalire, Mathieu Mapendano

2010-12-01

The word " mazuku" in Swahili means "evil wind". It corresponds to lowland (depressions) where carbon dioxide is released and, being heavier than air, accumulates at high - often lethal - concentrations (10 vol.% of CO 2 in atmosphere can be considered as the deadly threshold, even for a short time exposure). Mazuku are abundant in Goma and surrounding areas and particularly in the area south of the large volcanic edifices of Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira volcanoes located in the most eastern part of DR Congo, W branch of the East African Rift System (EARS). Our extensive field surveys have indicated that mazuku are concentrated within to and around the densely populated city of Goma close to the N shores of Lake Kivu, mainly near fault or fissure networks. At a more local scale, depressions allowing CO 2-rich gas accumulation are created by lava flow superposition, lava tunnels or cavity collapses, or directly associated with open fractures. People are killed by mazuku every year. Given political and social unrest coupled with the current important demographic and urban growths around Goma, the risks associated to mazuku are increasing accordingly. Mazuku are currently the most important natural risk in terms of human loss for the area and there is an urgent need for further research, more systematic mapping and monitoring of mazuku and for appropriate risk management to be implemented. This paper summarizes the current scientific knowledge on mazuku as well as new advances and a preliminary risk assessment performed recently in the frame of the GORISK project.

Case Study on Project Risk Management Planning Based on Soft System Methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lifang, Xie; Jun, Li

This paper analyzed the soft system characters of construction projects and the applicability on using Soft System Methodology (SSM) for risk analysis after a brief review of SSM. Taking a hydropower project as an example, it constructed the general frame of project risk management planning (PRMP) and established the Risk Management Planning (RMP) system from the perspective of the interests of co-ordination. This paper provided the ideas and methods for construction RMP under the win-win situation through the practice of SSM.

Risk assessment for construction projects of transport infrastructure objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titarenko, Boris

2017-10-01

The paper analyzes and compares different methods of risk assessment for construction projects of transport objects. The management of such type of projects demands application of special probabilistic methods due to large level of uncertainty of their implementation. Risk management in the projects requires the use of probabilistic and statistical methods. The aim of the work is to develop a methodology for using traditional methods in combination with robust methods that allow obtaining reliable risk assessments in projects. The robust approach is based on the principle of maximum likelihood and in assessing the risk allows the researcher to obtain reliable results in situations of great uncertainty. The application of robust procedures allows to carry out a quantitative assessment of the main risk indicators of projects when solving the tasks of managing innovation-investment projects. Calculation of damage from the onset of a risky event is possible by any competent specialist. And an assessment of the probability of occurrence of a risky event requires the involvement of special probabilistic methods based on the proposed robust approaches. Practice shows the effectiveness and reliability of results. The methodology developed in the article can be used to create information technologies and their application in automated control systems for complex projects.

Risk Assessment Approach for the Hanford Site River Corridor Closure Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomson, J.E.; Weiss, S.G.; Sands, J.P.

2007-07-01

The river corridor portion of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site includes the 100 Area and 300 Area, which border the Columbia River and cover 565 km{sup 2} (218 mi{sup 2}). The River Corridor Closure (RCC) Project scope of work includes 486 contaminated facilities, 4 of 9 deactivated plutonium production reactors, and 370 waste disposal sites. DOE's cleanup actions in the river corridor were initiated in 1994 under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1981 (42 U.S.C. 9601, et seq.) (CERCLA) and included source and groundwater operable units (OUs). DOE's RCC Project, awarded to Washingtonmore » Closure Hanford (WCH) in 2005, focuses on source OUs and has allowed cleanup actions to continue in the 100 and 300 Areas with completion by 2013. The regulatory authorization for cleanup actions at source OUs in the river corridor consists primarily of interim action records of decision (RODs), which were supported by qualitative risk assessments and limited field investigations. A key to establishing final cleanup decisions and proceeding toward final CERCLA closeout is completion of quantitative baseline risk assessment activities. Baseline risk assessment is necessary to determine whether cleanup actions are protective of human health and the environment and to identify any course corrections needed to ensure that current and future cleanup actions are protective. Because cleanup actions are ongoing under interim action RODs, it is desirable to establish the final cleanup decision bases as early as possible to minimize the impacts of any identified course corrections to the cleanup approach. Risk assessment is being performed by WCH as the River Corridor Baseline Risk Assessment (RCBRA). The RCBRA uses a multi-step process that summarizes existing data; uses the data quality objectives process to identify both data gaps and unresolved issues through public workshops; and solicits input from regulators, trustees, and stakeholders. Sampling and analysis plans are then developed to document quality requirements and identify field sample collection approaches. After required data are collected, the risks to human health and the environment are assessed. Sampling of upland, riparian, and near-shore environments for the 100/300 Area Component was performed in 2005 and 2006. The 100/300 Area Component includes former operational/reactor areas. The results of these efforts will be incorporated into a mid-2007 draft risk assessment report for the 100/300 Area Component of the RCBRA. Adapting methodology developed from the 100/300 Area Component, the Inter-Areas risk assessment will be conducted for the riparian and near-shore environments. The Inter-Areas Component includes shoreline areas between former operational areas addressed in the 100/300 Area Component. The Inter-Areas risk assessment will supplement results from the 100/300 Area Component to provide a more complete analysis of residual risks in the river corridor. Plans for the final element of the RCBRA, the Columbia River Component, are being developed by DOE and currently is not part of the RCC Project. The Columbia River Component includes the reach of the Columbia River located adjacent to the Hanford Site and reaches downstream to an undetermined boundary. Recommendations for final cleanup decisions at source units within the river corridor, based in part on the risk assessment results, will be presented for future public review in a River Corridor Source Unit Proposed Plan. To form an integrated cleanup approach for the river corridor, the RCBRA results for the source units require integration with risk assessment results from groundwater cleanup actions managed by other contractors. WCH's risk assessment task includes development of an integration strategy for activities leading up to the final regulatory decisions for all OUs in the river corridor. (authors)« less

Risk Balance: A Key Tool for Mission Operations Assurance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bryant, Larry W.; Faris, Grant B.

2011-01-01

The Mission Operations Assurance (MOA) discipline actively participates as a project member to achieve their common objective of full mission success while also providing an independent risk assessment to the Project Manager and Office of Safety and Mission Success staff. The cornerstone element of MOA is the independent assessment of the risks the project faces in executing its mission. Especially as the project approaches critical mission events, it becomes imperative to clearly identify and assess the risks the project faces. Quite often there are competing options for the project to select from in deciding how to execute the event. An example includes choices between proven but aging hardware components and unused but unproven components. Timing of the event with respect to visual or telecommunications visibility can be a consideration in the case of Earth reentry or hazardous maneuver events. It is in such situations that MOA is called upon for a risk balance assessment or risk trade study to support their recommendation to the Project Manager for a specific option to select. In the following paragraphs we consider two such assessments, one for the Stardust capsule Earth return and the other for the choice of telecommunications system configuration for the EPOXI flyby of the comet Hartley 2. We discuss the development of the trade space for each project's scenario and characterize the risks of each possible option. The risk characterization we consider includes a determination of the severity or consequence of each risk if realized and the likelihood of its occurrence. We then examine the assessment process to arrive at a MOA recommendation. Finally we review each flight project's decision process and the outcome of their decisions.

Improving Flood Risk Maps as a Capacity Building Activity: Fostering Public Participation and Raising Flood Risk Awareness in the German Mulde Region (project RISK MAP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luther, J.; Meyer, V.; Kuhlicke, C.; Scheuer, S.; Unnerstall, H.

2012-04-01

The EU Floods Directive requires the establishment of flood risk maps for high risk areas in all EU Member States by 2013. However, if existing at all, the current practice of risk mapping still shows some deficits: Risk maps are often seen as an information tool rather than a communication tool. This means that e.g. important local knowledge is not incorporated and forms a contrast to the understanding of capacity building which calls for engaging individuals in the process of learning and adapting to change and for the establishment of a more interactive public administration that learns equally from its actions and from the feedback it receives. Furthermore, the contents of risk maps often do not match the requirements of the end users, so that risk maps are often designed and visualised in a way which cannot be easily understood by laypersons and/or which is not suitable for the respective needs of public authorities in risk and flood event management. The project RISK MAP aimed at improving flood risk maps as a means to foster public participation and raising flood risk awareness. For achieving this aim, RISK MAP (1) developed rules for appropriate stakeholder participation enabling the incorporation of local knowledge and preferences; (2) improved the content of risk maps by considering different risk criteria through the use of a deliberative multicriteria risk mapping tool; and (3) improved the visualisation of risk maps in order to produce user-friendly risk maps by applying the experimental graphic semiology (EGS) method that uses the eye tracking approach. The research was carried out in five European case studies where the status quo of risk mapping and the legal framework was analysed, several stakeholder interviews and workshops were conducted, the visual perception of risk maps was tested and - based on this empirical work - exemplary improved risk maps were produced. The presentation and paper will outline the main findings of the project which ended in September 2011, focussing on the participatory aspects in one of the German case studies (the Mulde River in Saxony). In short, different map users such as strategic planners, emergency managers or the (affected) public require different maps, with varying information density and complexity. The purpose of participation may therefore have a substantive rationale (i.e. improving the content, including local knowledge) or a more instrumental rationale (i.e. building trust, raising awareness, increasing legitimacy). The degree to which both rationales are accommodated depends on the project objectives and determines the participants and process type. In the Mulde case study, both the process of collaborating with each other and considering the (local) knowledge and different experiences as well as the results were highly appreciated. Hazard and risk maps are thus not an end-product that could be complemented e.g. by emergency management information on existing or planned defences, evacuation routes, assembly points, but they should be embedded into a participatory maintenance/updating framework. Map visualisation could be enhanced by using more common and/or self-explanatory symbols, text and a limited number of colour grades for hazard and risk information. Keywords: Flood mapping, hazard and risk maps, participation, risk communication, flood risk awareness, emergency management

Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

PubMed

Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

2012-09-01

Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Highlight report: Launch of a large integrated European in vitro toxicology project: EU-ToxRisk.

PubMed

Daneshian, Mardas; Kamp, Hennicke; Hengstler, Jan; Leist, Marcel; van de Water, Bob

2016-05-01

The integrated European project, EU-ToxRisk, proudly sees itself as "flagship" exploring new alternative-to-animal approaches to chemical safety evaluation. It promotes mechanism-based toxicity testing and risk assessment according to the principles laid down for toxicology for the twenty-first century. The project was officially launched in January 2016 with a kickoff meeting in Egmond aan Zee, the Netherlands. Over 100 scientists representing academia and industry as well as regulatory authorities attended the inaugural meeting. The project will integrate advances in in vitro and in silico toxicology, read-across methods, and adverse outcome pathways. EU-ToxRisk will continue to make use of the case study strategy deployed in SEURAT-1, a FP7 initiative ended in December 2015. Even though the development of new non-animal methods is one target of EU-ToxRisk, the project puts special emphasis on their acceptance and implementation in regulatory contexts. This €30 million Horizon 2020 project involves 38 European partners and one from the USA. EU-ToxRisk aims at the "development of a new way of risk assessment."

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Cardoso Pereira, José Miguel; Hurtt, George; Asrar, Ghassem

2017-12-01

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change - Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 - projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4-28 times more forest in 2080-2100 than during 1990-2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9-5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

Niches, models, and climate change: Assessing the assumptions and uncertainties

PubMed Central

Wiens, John A.; Stralberg, Diana; Jongsomjit, Dennis; Howell, Christine A.; Snyder, Mark A.

2009-01-01

As the rate and magnitude of climate change accelerate, understanding the consequences becomes increasingly important. Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current ecological niche constraints are used to project future species distributions. These models contain assumptions that add to the uncertainty in model projections stemming from the structure of the models, the algorithms used to translate niche associations into distributional probabilities, the quality and quantity of data, and mismatches between the scales of modeling and data. We illustrate the application of SDMs using two climate models and two distributional algorithms, together with information on distributional shifts in vegetation types, to project fine-scale future distributions of 60 California landbird species. Most species are projected to decrease in distribution by 2070. Changes in total species richness vary over the state, with large losses of species in some “hotspots” of vulnerability. Differences in distributional shifts among species will change species co-occurrences, creating spatial variation in similarities between current and future assemblages. We use these analyses to consider how assumptions can be addressed and uncertainties reduced. SDMs can provide a useful way to incorporate future conditions into conservation and management practices and decisions, but the uncertainties of model projections must be balanced with the risks of taking the wrong actions or the costs of inaction. Doing this will require that the sources and magnitudes of uncertainty are documented, and that conservationists and resource managers be willing to act despite the uncertainties. The alternative, of ignoring the future, is not an option. PMID:19822750

Effect of dietary habits on the risk of metabolic syndrome: Yazd Healthy Heart Project.

PubMed

Sarebanhassanabadi, Mohammadtaghi; Mirhosseini, Seyed Jalil; Mirzaei, Masoud; Namayandeh, Seyedeh Mahdieh; Soltani, Mohammad Hossein; Pakseresht, Mohammadreza; Pedarzadeh, Ali; Baramesipour, Zahra; Faraji, Reza; Salehi-Abargouei, Amin

2018-04-01

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) refers to a group of risk factors that increase the risk of cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. Dietary habits are among the most important risk factors for MetS. The current study aimed at assessing the effect of dietary habits on the risk of MetS in a 10-year follow-up study in central Iran. Cohort study. Yazd, Iran. Participants aged 20-74 years without any history of MetS, who were originally recruited for Yazd Healthy Heart Project (YHHP) during 2005-2006, were revisited during 2015-2016. At phase I of YHHP, demographic data, anthropometric measurements, five components of MetS, biochemical tests and dietary habits were evaluated; and the same data were collected in phase II. A total of 1092 participants were eligible to be included in the present study. After follow-up, the 10-year cumulative incidence of MetS was 56·1 %. After adjustment for potential confounders, increased risk of MetS (hazard ratio; 95 % CI) was found in those who did not try to control their body weight (1·57; 1·06, 2·35), did not usually eat salad (1·91; 1·22, 3·00) and added salt to their food (1·57, 1·06, 2·33). These associations were stronger in men than in the total population after subgroup analysis, but were not present in women. Dietary habits affect the risk of MetS in the Iranian population. Lifestyle interventions are needed to improve dietary habits to reduce the risk of MetS. Future studies are highly recommended to confirm our results in other populations.

Direct production of 99mTc using a small medical cyclotron

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lapi, Suzanne

This project describes an investigation towards the production of 99mTc with a small medical cyclotron. This endeavor addresses the current urgent problem of availability of 99mTc due to the ongoing production reactor failures and the upcoming Canadian reactor shut down. Currently, 99mTc is produced via nuclear fission using highly enriched uranium which is a concern due to nuclear proliferation risks. In addition to this, the United States is dependent solely on currently unreliable foreign sources of this important medical isotope. Clearly, a need exists to probe alternative production routes of 99mTc. In the first year, this project measured cross-sections andmore » production yields of potential pathways to 99mTc and associated radionuclidic impurities produced via these pathways using a small 15 MeV medical cyclotron. During the second and third years target systems for the production of 99mTc via the most promising reaction routes were developed and separation techniques for the isolation of 99mTc from the irradiated target material will be investigated. Systems for the recycling of the enriched target isotopes as well as automated target processing systems were examined in years four and five. This project has the potential to alleviate some of the current crisis in the medical community by developing a technique to produce 99mTc on location at a university hospital. This technology will be applicable at many other sites in the United States as many other similar, low energy (<20 MeV) cyclotrons (currently used for a few hours per day for the production of [ 18F]fluorodeoxyglucose) are available for production of 99mTc though this method, thus leading to job creation and preservation.« less

Managing dependencies in forest offset projects: toward a more complete evaluation of reversal risk

Treesearch

David M Cooley; Chrsitopher S Galik; Thomas P Holmes; Carolyn Kousky; Roger M Cooke

2011-01-01

Although forest carbon offsets can play an important role in the implementation of comprehensive climate policy, they also face an inherent risk of reversal. If such risks are positively correlated across projects, it can affect the integrity of larger project portfolios and potentially the entire offsets program. Here, we discuss three types of risks that could affect...

Assessing Climate Vulnerability and Resilience of a Major Water Resource System - Inverting the Paradigm for Specific Risk Quantification at Decision Making Points of Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, K. W.; Ellis, A. W.; Skindlov, J. A.

2015-12-01

Water resource systems have provided vital support to transformative growth in the Southwest United States and the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area where the Salt River Project (SRP) currently satisfies 40% of the area's water demand from reservoir storage and groundwater. Large natural variability and expectations of climate changes have sensitized water management to risks posed by future periods of excess and drought. The conventional approach to impacts assessment has been downscaled climate model simulations translated through hydrologic models; but, scenario ranges enlarge as uncertainties propagate through sequential levels of modeling complexity. The research often does not reach the stage of specific impact assessments, rendering future projections frustratingly uncertain and unsuitable for complex decision-making. Alternatively, this study inverts the common approach by beginning with the threatened water system and proceeding backwards to the uncertain climate future. The methodology is built upon reservoir system response modeling to exhaustive time series of climate-driven net basin supply. A reservoir operations model, developed with SRP guidance, assesses cumulative response to inflow variability and change. Complete statistical analyses of long-term historical watershed climate and runoff data are employed for 10,000-year stochastic simulations, rendering the entire range of multi-year extremes with full probabilistic characterization. Sets of climate change projections are then translated by temperature sensitivity and precipitation elasticity into future inflow distributions that are comparatively assessed with the reservoir operations model. This approach provides specific risk assessments in pragmatic terms familiar to decision makers, interpretable within the context of long-range planning and revealing a clearer meaning of climate change projections for the region. As a transferable example achieving actionable findings, the approach can guide other communities confronting water resource planning challenges.

Estimated effects of projected climate change on the basic reproductive number of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis.

PubMed

Ogden, Nicholas H; Radojevic, Milka; Wu, Xiaotian; Duvvuri, Venkata R; Leighton, Patrick A; Wu, Jianhong

2014-06-01

The extent to which climate change may affect human health by increasing risk from vector-borne diseases has been under considerable debate. We quantified potential effects of future climate change on the basic reproduction number (R0) of the tick vector of Lyme disease, Ixodes scapularis, and explored their importance for Lyme disease risk, and for vector-borne diseases in general. We applied observed temperature data for North America and projected temperatures using regional climate models to drive an I. scapularis population model to hindcast recent, and project future, effects of climate warming on R0. Modeled R0 increases were compared with R0 ranges for pathogens and parasites associated with variations in key ecological and epidemiological factors (obtained by literature review) to assess their epidemiological importance. R0 for I. scapularis in North America increased during the years 1971-2010 in spatio-temporal patterns consistent with observations. Increased temperatures due to projected climate change increased R0 by factors (2-5 times in Canada and 1.5-2 times in the United States), comparable to observed ranges of R0 for pathogens and parasites due to variations in strains, geographic locations, epidemics, host and vector densities, and control efforts. Climate warming may have co-driven the emergence of Lyme disease in northeastern North America, and in the future may drive substantial disease spread into new geographic regions and increase tick-borne disease risk where climate is currently suitable. Our findings highlight the potential for climate change to have profound effects on vectors and vector-borne diseases, and the need to refocus efforts to understand these effects.

Developing the Next Generation Shell Buckling Design Factors and Technologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hilburger, Mark W.

2012-01-01

NASA s Shell Buckling Knockdown Factor (SBKF) Project was established in the spring of 2007 by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) in collaboration with the Constellation Program and Exploration Systems Mission Directorate. The SBKF project has the current goal of developing less-conservative, robust shell buckling design factors (a.k.a. knockdown factors) and design and analysis technologies for light-weight stiffened metallic launch vehicle (LV) structures. Preliminary design studies indicate that implementation of these new knockdown factors can enable significant reductions in mass and mass-growth in these vehicles and can help mitigate some of NASA s LV development and performance risks. In particular, it is expected that the results from this project will help reduce the reliance on testing, provide high-fidelity estimates of structural performance, reliability, robustness, and enable increased payload capability. The SBKF project objectives and approach used to develop and validate new design technologies are presented, and provide a glimpse into the future of design of the next generation of buckling-critical launch vehicle structures.

Causes and remedies for the dominant risk factors in Enterprise System implementation projects: the consultants' perspective.

PubMed

Lech, Przemysław

2016-01-01

The purpose of this research was to investigate the causes of the dominant risk factors, affecting Enterprise System implementation projects and propose remedies for those risk factors from the perspective of implementation consultants. The study used a qualitative research strategy, based on e-mail interviews, semi-structured personal interviews with consultants and participant observation during implementation projects. The main contribution of this paper is that it offers viable indications of how to mitigate the dominant risk factors. These indications were grouped into the following categories: stable project scope, smooth communication supported by the project management, dedicated, competent and decision-making client team, competent and engaged consultant project manager, schedule and budget consistent with the project scope, use of methodology and procedures, enforced and enabled by the project managers, competent and dedicated consultants. A detailed description is provided for each category.

Early nutrition programming of long-term health.

PubMed

Koletzko, Berthold; Brands, Brigitte; Poston, Lucilla; Godfrey, Keith; Demmelmair, Hans

2012-08-01

Increasing evidence from the EU Project EARNEST and many other investigators demonstrates that early nutrition and lifestyle have long-term effects on later health and the risk of common non-communicable diseases (known as 'developmental programming'). Because of the increasing public health importance and the transgenerational nature of the problem, obesity and associated disorders are the focus of the new EU funded project 'EarlyNutrition'. Currently, three key hypotheses have been defined: the fuel mediated 'in utero' hypothesis suggests that intrauterine exposure to an excess of fuels, most notably glucose, causes permanent changes of the fetus that lead to obesity in postnatal life; the accelerated postnatal weight gain hypothesis proposes an association between rapid weight gain in infancy and an increased risk of later obesity and adverse outcomes; and the mismatch hypothesis suggests that experiencing a developmental 'mismatch' between a sub-optimal perinatal and an obesogenic childhood environment is related to a particular predisposition to obesity and corresponding co-morbidities. Using existing cohort studies, ongoing and novel intervention studies and a basic science programme to investigate those key hypotheses, project EarlyNutrition will provide the scientific foundations for evidence-based recommendations for optimal nutrition considering long-term health outcomes, with a focus on obesity and related disorders. Scientific and technical expertise in placental biology, epigenetics and metabolomics will provide understanding at the cellular and molecular level of the relationships between early life nutritional status and the risk of later adiposity. This will help refine strategies for intervention in early life to prevent obesity.

Meeting CCS communication challenges head-on: Integrating communications, planning, risk assessment, and project management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Greenberg, S.; Gauvreau, L.; Hnottavange-Telleen, K.; Finley, R.; Marsteller, S.

2011-01-01

The Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium, Schlumberger Carbon Services, and Archer Daniels Midland has implemented a comprehensive communications plan at the Illinois Basin - Decatur Project (IBDP), a one million metric tonne Carbon Capture and Storage project in Decatur, IL, USA funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory. The IBDP Communication Plan includes consortium information, funding and disclaimer citations, description of target audiences, media communications guidelines, paper and presentations guidelines, site visit information, crisis communication, on-site photography regulations, and other components. The creation, development, and implementation processes for the IBDP Communication Plan (the Plan) are shared in this paper. New communications challenges, such as how to address add-on research requests, data sharing and management, scope increase, and contract agreements have arisen since the Plan was completed in January 2009, resulting in development of new policies and procedures by project management. Integrating communications planning, risk assessment, and project management ensured that consistent, factual information was developed and incorporated into project planning, and constitutes the basis of public communications. Successful integration has allowed the IBDP to benefit from early identification and mitigation of the potential project risks, which allows more time to effectively deal with unknown and unidentified risks that may arise. Project risks and risks associated with public perception can be managed through careful planning and integration of communication strategies into project management and risk mitigation. ?? 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Fuzzy net present valuation based on risk assessment of Malaysian infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaffie, Siti Salihah; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Mohamad, Daud

2017-04-01

In recent years, built-operate-transfer (BOT) projects have profoundly been accepted under project financing for infrastructure developments in many countries. It requires high financing and involves complex mutual risk. The assessment of the risks is vital to avert huge financial loss. Net present value is widely applied to BOT project where the uncertainties in cash flows are deemed to be deterministic values. This study proposed a fuzzy net present value model taking consideration the assessment of risks from the BOT project. The proposed model is adopted to provide more flexible net present valuation of the project. It is shown and proven that the improved fuzzy cash flow model will provide a valuation that is closed to the real value of the project.

Advanced Turbine Technology Applications Project (ATTAP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

Reports technical effort by AlliedSignal Engines in sixth year of DOE/NASA funded project. Topics include: gas turbine engine design modifications of production APU to incorporate ceramic components; fabrication and processing of silicon nitride blades and nozzles; component and engine testing; and refinement and development of critical ceramics technologies, including: hot corrosion testing and environmental life predictive model; advanced NDE methods for internal flaws in ceramic components; and improved carbon pulverization modeling during impact. ATTAP project is oriented toward developing high-risk technology of ceramic structural component design and fabrication to carry forward to commercial production by 'bridging the gap' between structural ceramics in the laboratory and near-term commercial heat engine application. Current ATTAP project goal is to support accelerated commercialization of advanced, high-temperature engines for hybrid vehicles and other applications. Project objectives are to provide essential and substantial early field experience demonstrating ceramic component reliability and durability in modified, available, gas turbine engine applications; and to scale-up and improve manufacturing processes of ceramic turbine engine components and demonstrate application of these processes in the production environment.

Quantifying the impact of current and future concentrations of air pollutants on respiratory disease risk in England.

PubMed

Pannullo, Francesca; Lee, Duncan; Neal, Lucy; Dalvi, Mohit; Agnew, Paul; O'Connor, Fiona M; Mukhopadhyay, Sabyasachi; Sahu, Sujit; Sarran, Christophe

2017-03-27

Estimating the long-term health impact of air pollution in a spatio-temporal ecological study requires representative concentrations of air pollutants to be constructed for each geographical unit and time period. Averaging concentrations in space and time is commonly carried out, but little is known about how robust the estimated health effects are to different aggregation functions. A second under researched question is what impact air pollution is likely to have in the future. We conducted a study for England between 2007 and 2011, investigating the relationship between respiratory hospital admissions and different pollutants: nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ); ozone (O 3 ); particulate matter, the latter including particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 micrometers (PM 2.5 ), and less than 10 micrometers (PM 10 ); and sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ). Bayesian Poisson regression models accounting for localised spatio-temporal autocorrelation were used to estimate the relative risks (RRs) of pollution on disease risk, and for each pollutant four representative concentrations were constructed using combinations of spatial and temporal averages and maximums. The estimated RRs were then used to make projections of the numbers of likely respiratory hospital admissions in the 2050s attributable to air pollution, based on emission projections from a number of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). NO 2 exhibited the largest association with respiratory hospital admissions out of the pollutants considered, with estimated increased risks of between 0.9 and 1.6% for a one standard deviation increase in concentrations. In the future the projected numbers of respiratory hospital admissions attributable to NO 2 in the 2050s are lower than present day rates under 3 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5, which is due to projected reductions in future NO 2 emissions and concentrations. NO 2 concentrations exhibit consistent substantial present-day health effects regardless of how a representative concentration is constructed in space and time. Thus as concentrations are predicted to remain above limits set by European Union Legislation until the 2030s in parts of urban England, it will remain a substantial health risk for some time.

Safety Assurance Factors for Electronic Health Record Resilience (SAFER): study protocol

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Implementation and use of electronic health records (EHRs) could lead to potential improvements in quality of care. However, the use of EHRs also introduces unique and often unexpected patient safety risks. Proactive assessment of risks and vulnerabilities can help address potential EHR-related safety hazards before harm occurs; however, current risk assessment methods are underdeveloped. The overall objective of this project is to develop and validate proactive assessment tools to ensure that EHR-enabled clinical work systems are safe and effective. Methods/Design This work is conceptually grounded in an 8-dimension model of safe and effective health information technology use. Our first aim is to develop self-assessment guides that can be used by health care institutions to evaluate certain high-risk components of their EHR-enabled clinical work systems. We will solicit input from subject matter experts and relevant stakeholders to develop guides focused on 9 specific risk areas and will subsequently pilot test the guides with individuals representative of likely users. The second aim will be to examine the utility of the self-assessment guides by beta testing the guides at selected facilities and conducting on-site evaluations. Our multidisciplinary team will use a variety of methods to assess the content validity and perceived usefulness of the guides, including interviews, naturalistic observations, and document analysis. The anticipated output of this work will be a series of self-administered EHR safety assessment guides with clear, actionable, checklist-type items. Discussion Proactive assessment of patient safety risks increases the resiliency of health care organizations to unanticipated hazards of EHR use. The resulting products and lessons learned from the development of the assessment guides are expected to be helpful to organizations that are beginning the EHR selection and implementation process as well as those that have already implemented EHRs. Findings from our project, currently underway, will inform future efforts to validate and implement tools that can be used by health care organizations to improve the safety of EHR-enabled clinical work systems. PMID:23587208

Data Model for Multi Hazard Risk Assessment Spatial Support Decision System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrejchenko, Vera; Bakker, Wim; van Westen, Cees

2014-05-01

The goal of the CHANGES Spatial Decision Support System is to support end-users in making decisions related to risk reduction measures for areas at risk from multiple hydro-meteorological hazards. The crucial parts in the design of the system are the user requirements, the data model, the data storage and management, and the relationships between the objects in the system. The implementation of the data model is carried out entirely with an open source database management system with a spatial extension. The web application is implemented using open source geospatial technologies with PostGIS as the database, Python for scripting, and Geoserver and javascript libraries for visualization and the client-side user-interface. The model can handle information from different study areas (currently, study areas from France, Romania, Italia and Poland are considered). Furthermore, the data model handles information about administrative units, projects accessible by different types of users, user-defined hazard types (floods, snow avalanches, debris flows, etc.), hazard intensity maps of different return periods, spatial probability maps, elements at risk maps (buildings, land parcels, linear features etc.), economic and population vulnerability information dependent on the hazard type and the type of the element at risk, in the form of vulnerability curves. The system has an inbuilt database of vulnerability curves, but users can also add their own ones. Included in the model is the management of a combination of different scenarios (e.g. related to climate change, land use change or population change) and alternatives (possible risk-reduction measures), as well as data-structures for saving the calculated economic or population loss or exposure per element at risk, aggregation of the loss and exposure using the administrative unit maps, and finally, producing the risk maps. The risk data can be used for cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE). The data model includes data-structures for CBA and SMCE. The model is at the stage where risk and cost-benefit calculations can be stored but the remaining part is currently under development. Multi-criteria information, user management and the relation of these with the rest of the model is our next step. Having a carefully designed data model plays a crucial role in the development of the whole system for rapid development, keeping the data consistent, and in the end, support the end-user in making good decisions in risk-reduction measures related to multiple natural hazards. This work is part of the EU FP7 Marie Curie ITN "CHANGES"project (www.changes-itn.edu)

Mapping Physiological Suitability Limits for Malaria in Africa Under Climate Change.

PubMed

Ryan, Sadie J; McNally, Amy; Johnson, Leah R; Mordecai, Erin A; Ben-Horin, Tal; Paaijmans, Krijn; Lafferty, Kevin D

2015-12-01

We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. We found that a larger area of Africa currently experiences the ideal temperature for transmission than previously supposed. Under future climate projections, we predicted a modest increase in the overall area suitable for malaria transmission, but a net decrease in the most suitable area. Combined with human population density projections, our maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for year-round, highest-risk transmission will shift from coastal West Africa to the Albertine Rift between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, whereas areas with seasonal transmission suitability will shift toward sub-Saharan coastal areas. Mapping temperature suitability places important bounds on malaria transmissibility and, along with local level demographic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors, can indicate where resources may be best spent on malaria control.

Mapping physiological suitability limits for malaria in Africa under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryan, Sadie J.; McNally, Amy; Johnson, Leah R.; Mordecai, Erin A.; Ben-Horin, Tal; Paaijmans, Krijn P.; Lafferty, Kevin D.

2015-01-01

We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. We found that a larger area of Africa currently experiences the ideal temperature for transmission than previously supposed. Under future climate projections, we predicted a modest increase in the overall area suitable for malaria transmission, but a net decrease in the most suitable area. Combined with human population density projections, our maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for year-round, highest-risk transmission will shift from coastal West Africa to the Albertine Rift between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, whereas areas with seasonal transmission suitability will shift toward sub-Saharan coastal areas. Mapping temperature suitability places important bounds on malaria transmissibility and, along with local level demographic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors, can indicate where resources may be best spent on malaria control.

Incorporating climate science in applications of the US endangered species act for aquatic species.

PubMed

McClure, Michelle M; Alexander, Michael; Borggaard, Diane; Boughton, David; Crozier, Lisa; Griffis, Roger; Jorgensen, Jeffrey C; Lindley, Steven T; Nye, Janet; Rowland, Melanie J; Seney, Erin E; Snover, Amy; Toole, Christopher; VAN Houtan, Kyle

2013-12-01

Aquatic species are threatened by climate change but have received comparatively less attention than terrestrial species. We gleaned key strategies for scientists and managers seeking to address climate change in aquatic conservation planning from the literature and existing knowledge. We address 3 categories of conservation effort that rely on scientific analysis and have particular application under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA): assessment of overall risk to a species; long-term recovery planning; and evaluation of effects of specific actions or perturbations. Fewer data are available for aquatic species to support these analyses, and climate effects on aquatic systems are poorly characterized. Thus, we recommend scientists conducting analyses supporting ESA decisions develop a conceptual model that links climate, habitat, ecosystem, and species response to changing conditions and use this model to organize analyses and future research. We recommend that current climate conditions are not appropriate for projections used in ESA analyses and that long-term projections of climate-change effects provide temporal context as a species-wide assessment provides spatial context. In these projections, climate change should not be discounted solely because the magnitude of projected change at a particular time is uncertain when directionality of climate change is clear. Identifying likely future habitat at the species scale will indicate key refuges and potential range shifts. However, the risks and benefits associated with errors in modeling future habitat are not equivalent. The ESA offers mechanisms for increasing the overall resilience and resistance of species to climate changes, including establishing recovery goals requiring increased genetic and phenotypic diversity, specifying critical habitat in areas not currently occupied but likely to become important, and using adaptive management. Incorporación de las Ciencias Climáticas en las Aplicaciones del Acta Estadunidense de Especies en Peligro para Especies Acuáticas. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology No claim to original US government works.

Telescience Resource Kit Software Lifecycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Griner, Carolyn S.; Schneider, Michelle

1998-01-01

The challenge of a global operations capability led to the Telescience Resource Kit (TReK) project, an in-house software development project of the Mission Operations Laboratory (MOL) at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). The TReK system is being developed as an inexpensive comprehensive personal computer- (PC-) based ground support system that can be used by payload users from their home sites to interact with their payloads on board the International Space Station (ISS). The TReK project is currently using a combination of the spiral lifecycle model and the incremental lifecycle model. As with any software development project, there are four activities that can be very time consuming: Software design and development, project documentation, testing, and umbrella activities, such as quality assurance and configuration management. In order to produce a quality product, it is critical that each of these activities receive the appropriate amount of attention. For TReK, the challenge was to lay out a lifecycle and project plan that provides full support for these activities, is flexible, provides a way to deal with changing risks, can accommodate unknowns, and can respond to changes in the environment quickly. This paper will provide an overview of the TReK lifecycle, a description of the project's environment, and a general overview of project activities.

Neurocognitive impairment and suicide risk among prison inmates.

PubMed

Vadini, Francesco; Calella, Giulio; Pieri, Alessandro; Ricci, Elena; Fulcheri, Mario; Verrocchio, Maria Cristina; De Risio, Alfredo; Sciacca, Antonina; Santilli, Francesca; Parruti, Giustino

2018-01-01

Worldwide, prisoners are at high risk of suicide. Reducing the number of suicides in jails and prisons is an international priority. Several risk factors for suicide attempts, such as historical, prison-related, psychosocial and clinical factors, have been found in prisoners. We assessed whether demographic, conviction-related and neuro-behavioral variables might be associated with current suicide risk and lifetime suicide attempts in two large central Italy prisons. On a preliminary sample of 254 detainees within an ongoing project, we assessed whether demographic, conviction-related, psychiatric, cognitive variables and illness comorbidity might be associated with current suicide risk and lifetime suicide attempts in two large central Italy prisons. Psychiatric disorders and suicide risk was evaluated using the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview. We also have identified the detainees with clear-cut previous suicide attempts. The cognitive function was assessed with a brief neuropsychological battery including trail making A, trail making B, Digit Span, and Symbol Digit test. Impulsivity was assessed with the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale. Cumulative illness was evaluated with Charlson Comorbidity Index. Impairment in global cognitive function was the strongest predictor of both high suicide risk and lifetime suicide attempts (both p < 0.001), independently of psychiatric disorders, psychopharmacological treatment, detention status, conviction time, substance use disorder, impulsivity, and illness comorbidity. Limitation LIMITATION: Cross-sectional study design and relatively small sample size. Cognitive deficits may improve our understanding of the suicidal vulnerability and should be systematically included in the assessment of suicide risk, as potential predictors of suicidal acts and targets of preventive interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

LIFESTAT - Living with statins: An interdisciplinary project on the use of statins as a cholesterol-lowering treatment and for cardiovascular risk reduction.

PubMed

Christensen, Christa Lykke; Wulff Helge, Jørn; Krasnik, Allan; Kriegbaum, Margit; Rasmussen, Lene Juel; Hickson, Ian D; Liisberg, Kasper Bering; Oxlund, Bjarke; Bruun, Birgitte; Lau, Sofie Rosenlund; Olsen, Maria Nathalie Angleys; Andersen, John Sahl; Heltberg, Andreas Søndergaard; Kuhlman, Anja Birk; Morville, Thomas Hoffmann; Dohlmann, Tine Lovsø; Larsen, Steen; Dela, Flemming

2016-07-01

LIFESTAT is an interdisciplinary project that leverages approaches and knowledge from medicine, the humanities and the social sciences to analyze the impact of statin use on health, lifestyle and well-being in cohorts of Danish citizens. The impetus for the study is the fact that 10% of the population in the Scandinavian countries are treated with statins in order to maintain good health and to avoid cardiovascular disease by counteracting high blood levels of cholesterol. The potential benefit of treatment with statins should be considered in light of evidence that statin use has prevalent and unintended side effects (e.g. myalgia, and glucose and exercise intolerance). The LIFESTAT project combines invasive human experiments, biomedical analyses, nationwide surveys, epidemiological studies, qualitative interviews, media content analyses, and ethnographic participant observations. The study investigates the biological consequences of statin treatment; determines the mechanism(s) by which statin use causes muscle and mitochondrial dysfunction; and analyzes achievement of treatment goals, people's perception of disease risk, media influence on people's risk and health perception, and the way people manage to live with the risk (personally, socially and technologically). CONCLUSIONS THE ORIGINALITY AND SUCCESS OF LIFESTAT DEPEND ON AND DERIVE FROM ITS INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH, IN WHICH THE DISCIPLINES CONVERGE INTO THOROUGH AND HOLISTIC STUDY AND DESCRIBE THE IMPACT OF STATIN USE ON THE EVERYDAY LIFE OF STATIN USERS THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH GREATER BENEFIT THAN ANY ONE OF THE DISCIPLINES ALONE INTEGRATING TRADITIONAL DISCIPLINES PROVIDES NOVEL PERSPECTIVES ON POTENTIAL CURRENT AND FUTURE SOCIAL, MEDICAL AND PERSONAL BENEFITS OF STATIN USE. © 2016 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

Bayesian-network-based safety risk assessment for steel construction projects.

PubMed

Leu, Sou-Sen; Chang, Ching-Miao

2013-05-01

There are four primary accident types at steel building construction (SC) projects: falls (tumbles), object falls, object collapse, and electrocution. Several systematic safety risk assessment approaches, such as fault tree analysis (FTA) and failure mode and effect criticality analysis (FMECA), have been used to evaluate safety risks at SC projects. However, these traditional methods ineffectively address dependencies among safety factors at various levels that fail to provide early warnings to prevent occupational accidents. To overcome the limitations of traditional approaches, this study addresses the development of a safety risk-assessment model for SC projects by establishing the Bayesian networks (BN) based on fault tree (FT) transformation. The BN-based safety risk-assessment model was validated against the safety inspection records of six SC building projects and nine projects in which site accidents occurred. The ranks of posterior probabilities from the BN model were highly consistent with the accidents that occurred at each project site. The model accurately provides site safety-management abilities by calculating the probabilities of safety risks and further analyzing the causes of accidents based on their relationships in BNs. In practice, based on the analysis of accident risks and significant safety factors, proper preventive safety management strategies can be established to reduce the occurrence of accidents on SC sites. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan Cardiovascular Consortium (BMC2) collaborative quality improvement initiative in percutaneous coronary interventions.

PubMed

Moscucci, Mauro; Share, David; Kline-Rogers, Eva; O'Donnell, Michael; Maxwell-Eward, Ann; Meengs, William L; Clark, Vivian L; Kraft, Phillip; De Franco, Anthony C; Chambers, James L; Patel, Kirit; McGinnity, John G; Eagle, Kim A

2002-10-01

The past decade has been characterized by increased scrutiny of outcomes of surgical and percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs). This increased scrutiny has led to the development of regional, state, and national databases for outcome assessment and for public reporting. This report describes the initial development of a regional, collaborative, cardiovascular consortium and the progress made so far by this collaborative group. In 1997, a group of hospitals in the state Michigan agreed to create a regional collaborative consortium for the development of a quality improvement program in interventional cardiology. The project included the creation of a comprehensive database of PCIs to be used for risk assessment, feedback on absolute and risk-adjusted outcomes, and sharing of information. To date, information from nearly 20,000 PCIs have been collected. A risk prediction tool for death in the hospital and additional risk prediction tools for other outcomes have been developed from the data collected, and are currently used by the participating centers for risk assessment and for quality improvement. As the project enters into year 5, the participating centers are deeply engaged in the quality improvement phase, and expansion to a total of 17 hospitals with active PCI programs is in process. In conclusion, the Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan Cardiovascular Consortium is an example of a regional collaborative effort to assess and improve quality of care and outcomes that overcome the barriers of traditional market and academic competition.

Nutrition, environment and cardiovascular health (NESCAV): protocol of an inter-regional cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Alkerwi, Ala'a; Guillaume, Michèle; Zannad, Faiez; Laufs, Ulrich; Lair, Marie-Lise

2010-11-15

Despite the remarkable technological progress in health care and treatment, cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of premature death, prolonged hospitalization and disability in most European countries. In the population of the Greater Region (Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, Wallonia in Belgium, and Lorraine in France), the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and disease is among the highest in Europe, warranting the need for a better understanding of factors contributing to this pattern. In this context, the cross-border "Nutrition, Environment and Cardiovascular Health-NESCAV" project is initiated by an inter-regional multi-disciplinary consortium and supported by the INTERREG IV A program "Greater Region", 2007-2013, to fight synergically and harmoniously against this major public health problem. The objectives of the three-year planned project are to assess, in a representative sample of 3000 randomly selected individuals living at the Greater Region, 1) the cardiovascular health and risk profile, 2) the association between the dietary habits and the cardiovascular risk, 3) the association of occupational and environmental pollution markers with the cardiovascular risk, 4) the knowledge, awareness and level of control of cardiovascular risk factors, 5) the potential gaps in the current primary prevention, and finally, to address evidence-based recommendations enabling the development of inter-regional guidance to help policy-makers and health care workers for the prevention of cardiovascular disease. The findings will provide tools that may enable the Greater Region's decision-makers and health professionals to implement targeted and cost-effective prevention strategies.

Human outposts on Mars: engineering and scientific lessons learned from history

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruenwald, J.

2014-06-01

There are several planned projects that aim to send humans to Mars which are currently developed by the ESA, the NASA or by initiatives from the private sector (e.g. The Mars One Project). Some of these projects include long-term stays or even permanent human outposts on the red planet. To achieve the necessary habitats on Mars, a vast amount of different engineering and scientific problems has to be solved. This paper identifies some of the most important issues by analyzing a similar endeavor from human history—the colonization of the American continent by the Europeans. This might seem to be an unconventional approach, but some valuable insights can be gathered by studying the significant dangers and drawbacks experienced by the early settlers in America. These historical records can help scientists and engineers to set up some guidelines for avoiding some of the risks for the first human beings on Mars.

Environmentally-Preferable Launch Coatings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kessel, Kurt R.

2015-01-01

The Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida, has the primary objective of modernizing and transforming the launch and range complex at KSC to benefit current and future NASA programs along with other emerging users. Described as the launch support and infrastructure modernization program in the NASA Authorization Act of 2010, the GSDO Program will develop and implement shared infrastructure and process improvements to provide more flexible, affordable, and responsive capabilities to a multi-user community. In support of NASA and the GSDO Program, the objective of this project is to determine the feasibility of environmentally friendly corrosion protecting coatings for launch facilities and ground support equipment (GSE). The focus of the project is corrosion resistance and survivability with the goal to reduce the amount of maintenance required to preserve the performance of launch facilities while reducing mission risk. The project compares coating performance of the selected alternatives to existing coating systems or standards.

Biological Assessment of the Continued Operation of Los Alamos National Laboratory on Federally Listed Threatened and Endangered Species

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hansen, Leslie A.

2006-09-19

This biological assessment considers the effects of continuing to operate Los Alamos National Laboratory on Federally listed threatened or endangered species, based on current and future operations identified in the 2006 Site-wide Environmental Impact Statement for the Continued Operation of Los Alamos National Laboratory (SWEIS; DOE In Prep.). We reviewed 40 projects analyzed in the SWEIS as well as two aspects on ongoing operations to determine if these actions had the potential to affect Federally listed species. Eighteen projects that had not already received U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) consultation and concurrence, as well as the two aspects ofmore » ongoing operations, ecological risk from legacy contaminants and the Outfall Reduction Project, were determined to have the potential to affect threatened or endangered species. Cumulative impacts were also analyzed.« less

[HLA-B27 Positive Acute Anterior Uveitis - A Translational Perspective].

PubMed

Heiligenhaus, Arnd; Kasper, Maren; Grajewski, Rafael

2017-05-01

Background HLA-B27 positive acute anterior uveitis is the most common type of uveitis, and it is an autoimmune disease that can be triggered by infections. The precise mechanism of the interaction between involved microbes (mostly gram negative bacteria) and the host immune system is not clear. The disease probably results from an imbalance between pro- and anti-inflammatory components. Project description This article gives a compact overview about the current knowledge of the clinic and the etiopathogenesis of acute anterior uveitis as a basis for future research approaches. The goal of the current research is to classify the cellular and molecular pathogenetic factors in acute anterior uveitis. In this regard, a project on uveitis within the clinical research unit FOR 2240 "(Lymph)Angiogenesis and Cellular Immunity in Inflammatory Diseases of the Eye", examines the hypothesis that dysregulation of regulatory cell populations and anti-inflammatory cytokines, such as interleukin-10 (IL-10), might contribute to the development of ocular autoimmunity following infections. The goal is to establish new markers for individual susceptibility in the risk group of the HLA-B27 positive population, because only about 1% of the HLA-B27 positive population will eventually develop acute anterior uveitis. Conclusions Translational research approaches to identify predisposed risk groups from the HLA-B27 population could improve patient care both on a prophylactic and a therapeutic level. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Cardiovascular diseases and diabetes as economic and developmental challenges in Africa.

PubMed

Kengne, Andre Pascal; June-Rose McHiza, Zandile; Amoah, Albert George Baidoe; Mbanya, Jean-Claude

2013-01-01

Current estimates and projections suggest that the burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), diabetes and related risk factors in African countries is important, somewhat unique and rapidly growing. Various segments of the population are affected; however, the group mostly affected is young adults residing in urban areas, and increasingly those in the low socioeconomic strata. The African milieu/environment is compounded by weak health systems, which are unable to cope with the looming double burden of communicable and chronic non-communicable diseases. This review discusses the economic and developmental challenges posed by CVDs and diabetes in countries in Africa. Using several lines of evidence, we demonstrate that the cost of care for major CVDs and diabetes is beyond the coping capacities of individuals, households, families and governments in most African countries. We have reviewed modeling studies by the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) and other major international agencies on the current and projected impact that CVDs and diabetes have on the economy and development of countries in the region. Locally, appropriate strategies to limit the impact of the conditions on the economies and development of countries in Africa are suggested and discussed. These include monitoring diseases and risk factors, and primordial, primary and secondary preventions implemented following a life-course perspective. Structural, logistic, human capacity and organizational challenges to be surmounted during the implementations of these strategies will be reviewed. © 2013.

Strategy for Mitigating Collision Between Landsat-5 and the Afternoon Constellation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levi, Joshua A.; Palmer, Eric J.

2011-01-01

The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Earth Science Mission Operations project, the French space agency Centre National d tudes Spatiales, the Argentinian space agency Comisi n Nacional de Actividades Espaciales, and the United States Geological Survey all operate spacecraft in sun-synchronous frozen orbits. The orbits are planned to not place any of the spacecraft at risk of colliding with another. However, evolution of these orbits over time has com-promised the safe interaction between Landsat-5 and the Afternoon Constella-tion. This paper analyzes the interactions between the Landsat-5 spacecraft and the Afternoon Constellation members over a period of 6 years, describing the current risk and plan to mitigate collisions in the future.

Impact of agile methodologies on team capacity in automotive radio-navigation projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prostean, G.; Hutanu, A.; Volker, S.

2017-01-01

The development processes used in automotive radio-navigation projects are constantly under adaption pressure. While the software development models are based on automotive production processes, the integration of peripheral components into an automotive system will trigger a high number of requirement modifications. The use of traditional development models in automotive industry will bring team’s development capacity to its boundaries. The root cause lays in the inflexibility of actual processes and their adaption limits. This paper addresses a new project management approach for the development of radio-navigation projects. The understanding of weaknesses of current used models helped us in development and integration of agile methodologies in traditional development model structure. In the first part we focus on the change management methods to reduce request for change inflow. Established change management risk analysis processes enables the project management to judge the impact of a requirement change and also gives time to the project to implement some changes. However, in big automotive radio-navigation projects the saved time is not enough to implement the large amount of changes, which are submitted to the project. In the second phase of this paper we focus on increasing team capacity by integrating at critical project phases agile methodologies into the used traditional model. The overall objective of this paper is to prove the need of process adaption in order to solve project team capacity bottlenecks.

Risk assessment of underpass infrastructure project based on IS0 31000 and ISO 21500 using fishbone diagram and RFMEA (project risk failure mode and effects analysis) method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purwanggono, Bambang; Margarette, Anastasia

2017-12-01

Completion time of highway construction is very meaningful for smooth transportation, moreover expected number of ownership motor vehicle will increase each year. Therefore, this study was conducted with to analyze the constraints that contained in an infrastructure development project. This research was conducted on Jatingaleh Underpass Project, Semarang. This research was carried out while the project is running, on the implementation, this project is experiencing delays. This research is done to find out what are the constraints that occur in execution of a road infrastructure project, in particular that causes delays. The method that used to find the root cause is fishbone diagram to obtain a possible means of mitigation. Coupled with the RFMEA method used to determine the critical risks that must be addressed immediately on road infrastructure project. The result of data tabulation in this study indicates that the most possible mitigation tool to make a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) recommendations to disrupt utilities that interfere project implementation. Process of risk assessment has been carried out systematically based on ISO 31000:2009 on risk management and for determination of delayed variables, the requirements of process groups according to ISO 21500:2013 on project management were used.

NASA Collaborative Approach Mitigates Environmentally-Driven Obsolescence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greene, Brian; Leeney, Bob; Richards, Joni

2016-01-01

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) missions, like Department of Defense (DoD) organizations, require the rigorous testing and qualification of critical materials. Obsolescence supply risks created by environmental requirements can affect the cost, schedule and performance of NASA missions and the resilience of critical infrastructure. The NASA Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) Principal Center helps to identify obsolescence supply risks driven by environmental requirements and works proactively with NASA Centers and Programs, the DoD, the European Space Agency (ESA) and other agencies and partners to identify and evaluate environmentally friendly alternatives. TEERM tracks environmental regulations, identifies the potential loss of material availability and works with NASA programs and Centers to evaluate potential impacts through a risk assessment approach. TEERM collaborative projects identify, demonstrate and evaluate commercially viable alternative technologies and materials. A major focus during the Space Shuttle Program was the need to replace ozone depleting substances that were used in spray foam and cleaning applications. The potential obsolescence of coatings containing hexavalent chromium and the risks associated with lead free solder were also of concern for the Space Shuttle and present ongoing risks to new programs such as the Space Launch System. One current project teams NASA and ESA in the evaluation and testing of individual coatings and coating systems as replacements for hexavalent chromium coatings in aerospace applications. The proactive, collaborative approach used by TEERM helps reduce the cost burden on any one team partner, reduces duplication of effort, and enhances the technical quality and overall applicability of the testing and analysis.

A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

2017-05-01

Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple.

PubMed

Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

2017-05-01

Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

Approach to the E-ELT dome and main structure challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilbao, Armando; Murga, Gaizka; Gómez, Celia; Llarena, Javier

2014-07-01

The E-ELT as a whole could be classified as an extremely challenging project. More precisely, it should be defined as an array of many different sub-challenges, which comprise technical, logistical and managerial matters. This paper reviews some of these critical challenges, in particular those related to the Dome and the Main Structure, suggesting ways to face them in the most pragmatic way possible. Technical challenges for the Dome and the Main Structure are mainly related to the need to upscale current design standards to an order of magnitude larger design. Trying a direct design escalation is not feasible; it would not work. A design effort is needed to cross hybridize current design standards with technologies coming from other different applications. Innovative design is therefore not a wish but a must. And innovative design comes along with design risk. Design risk needs to be tackled from two angles: on the one hand through thorough design validation analysis and on the other hand through extensive pre-assembly and testing. And, once again, full scale integrated pre-assembly and testing of extremely large subsystems is not always possible. Therefore, defining a comprehensive test plan for critical components, critical subsystems and critical subassemblies becomes essential. Logistical challenges are linked to the erection site. Cerro Armazones is a remote site and this needs to be considered when evaluating transport and erection requirements. But it is not only the remoteness of the site that needs to be considered. The size of both Dome and Main Structure require large construction cranes and a well defined erection plan taking into account pre-assembly strategies, limited plan area utilization, erection sequence, erection stability during intermediate stages and, very specifically, efficient coordination between the Dome and the Main Structure erection processes. Managerial issues pose another set of challenges in this project. Both the size of the project and its special technical characteristics require specific managerial skills. Due to the size of the project it becomes essential to effectively manage and integrate a large number of suppliers and fabricators, of very different nature and geographically distributed. Project management plans need to cope with this situation. Also, extensive on site activities require intensive on site organization in line with large construction management strategies. Finally, the technical edge of the project requires deep technical understanding at management level in order to be able to take sound strategic decisions throughout the project in terms of the overall project quality, cost and schedule.

A blood-based biomarker panel indicates IL-10 and IL-12/23p40 are jointly associated as predictors of β-amyloid load in an AD cohort.

PubMed

Pedrini, Steve; Gupta, Veer B; Hone, Eugene; Doecke, James; O'Bryant, Sid; James, Ian; Bush, Ashley I; Rowe, Christopher C; Villemagne, Victor L; Ames, David; Masters, Colin L; Martins, Ralph N

2017-10-25

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is the most common form of dementia, characterised by extracellular amyloid deposition as plaques and intracellular neurofibrillary tangles of tau protein. As no current clinical test can diagnose individuals at risk of developing AD, the aim of this project is to evaluate a blood-based biomarker panel to identify individuals who carry this risk. We analysed the levels of 22 biomarkers in clinically classified healthy controls (HC), mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer's participants from the well characterised Australian Imaging, Biomarker and Lifestyle (AIBL) study of aging. High levels of IL-10 and IL-12/23p40 were significantly associated with amyloid deposition in HC, suggesting that these two biomarkers might be used to detect at risk individuals. Additionally, other biomarkers (Eotaxin-3, Leptin, PYY) exhibited altered levels in AD participants possessing the APOE ε4 allele. This suggests that the physiology of some potential biomarkers may be altered in AD due to the APOE ε4 allele, a major risk factor for AD. Taken together, these data highlight several potential biomarkers that can be used in a blood-based panel to allow earlier identification of individuals at risk of developing AD and/or early stage AD for which current therapies may be more beneficial.

Crisis of Japanese Vascular Flora Shown By Quantifying Extinction Risks for 1618 Taxa

PubMed Central

Kadoya, Taku; Takenaka, Akio; Ishihama, Fumiko; Fujita, Taku; Ogawa, Makoto; Katsuyama, Teruo; Kadono, Yasuro; Kawakubo, Nobumitsu; Serizawa, Shunsuke; Takahashi, Hideki; Takamiya, Masayuki; Fujii, Shinji; Matsuda, Hiroyuki; Muneda, Kazuo; Yokota, Masatsugu; Yonekura, Koji; Yahara, Tetsukazu

2014-01-01

Although many people have expressed alarm that we are witnessing a mass extinction, few projections have been quantified, owing to limited availability of time-series data on threatened organisms, especially plants. To quantify the risk of extinction, we need to monitor changes in population size over time for as many species as possible. Here, we present the world's first quantitative projection of plant species loss at a national level, with stochastic simulations based on the results of population censuses of 1618 threatened plant taxa in 3574 map cells of ca. 100 km2. More than 500 lay botanists helped monitor those taxa in 1994–1995 and in 2003–2004. We projected that between 370 and 561 vascular plant taxa will go extinct in Japan during the next century if past trends of population decline continue. This extinction rate is approximately two to three times the global rate. Using time-series data, we show that existing national protected areas (PAs) covering ca. 7% of Japan will not adequately prevent population declines: even core PAs can protect at best <60% of local populations from decline. Thus, the Aichi Biodiversity Target to expand PAs to 17% of land (and inland water) areas, as committed to by many national governments, is not enough: only 29.2% of currently threatened species will become non-threatened under the assumption that probability of protection success by PAs is 0.5, which our assessment shows is realistic. In countries where volunteers can be organized to monitor threatened taxa, censuses using our method should be able to quantify how fast we are losing species and to assess how effective current conservation measures such as PAs are in preventing species extinction. PMID:24922311

Cost-effectiveness of ezetimibe coadministration in statin-treated patients not at cholesterol goal: application to Germany, Spain and Norway.

PubMed

Cook, John R; Yin, Don; Alemao, Evo; Davies, Glenn; Krobot, Karl J; Veltri, Enrico; Lipka, Leslie; Badia, Xavier

2004-01-01

Despite the growing use of statins, many hypercholesterolaemic patients fail to reach their lipid goal and remain at elevated risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Alternative treatment strategies, such as ezetimibe coadministration and statin titration, can help patients achieve greater lipid control, and thereby lower their CHD risk. But is it cost effective to more aggressively lower cholesterol levels across a broad range of current statin users? Using a decision-analytic model based on epidemiological and clinical trials data, we project the lifetime benefit and cost of alternative lipid-lowering treatment strategies for CHD and non-CHD diabetic patients in Germany, Spain and Norway. It is projected that from 40% to 76% of these patients who have failed to reach their lipid goal with their current statin treatment will be able to reach their goal with ezetimibe coadministration; this represents a gain of up to an additional absolute 14% who will be able to reach their goal compared with a 'titrate to goal' strategy where patients are titrated in order to reach their lipid goal (up to the maximum approved dose). For CHD patients, the estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for ezetimibe coadministration is under Euro 18 000 per life-year gained (Euro/LYG) and 26 000 Euro/LYG compared with strategies based on the observed titration rates and the aggressive 'titrate to goal' strategy, respectively; for non-CHD diabetic patients, these ratios are under 26 000 Euro/LYG and 48 000 Euro/LYG for ezetimibe coadministration compared with the two titration strategies. Compared with statin titration, ezetimibe coadministration is projected to be cost effective in the populations and countries studied.

Assessing the Relative Risk of Aerocapture Using Probabalistic Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Percy, Thomas K.; Bright, Ellanee; Torres, Abel O.

2005-01-01

A recent study performed for the Aerocapture Technology Area in the In-Space Propulsion Technology Projects Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center investigated the relative risk of various capture techniques for Mars missions. Aerocapture has been proposed as a possible capture technique for future Mars missions but has been perceived by many in the community as a higher risk option as compared to aerobraking and propulsive capture. By performing a probabilistic risk assessment on aerocapture, aerobraking and propulsive capture, a comparison was made to uncover the projected relative risks of these three maneuvers. For mission planners, this knowledge will allow them to decide if the mass savings provided by aerocapture warrant any incremental risk exposure. The study focuses on a Mars Sample Return mission currently under investigation at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). In each case (propulsive, aerobraking and aerocapture), the Earth return vehicle is inserted into Martian orbit by one of the three techniques being investigated. A baseline spacecraft was established through initial sizing exercises performed by JPL's Team X. While Team X design results provided the baseline and common thread between the spacecraft, in each case the Team X results were supplemented by historical data as needed. Propulsion, thermal protection, guidance, navigation and control, software, solar arrays, navigation and targeting and atmospheric prediction were investigated. A qualitative assessment of human reliability was also included. Results show that different risk drivers contribute significantly to each capture technique. For aerocapture, the significant drivers include propulsion system failures and atmospheric prediction errors. Software and guidance hardware contribute the most to aerobraking risk. Propulsive capture risk is mainly driven by anomalous solar array degradation and propulsion system failures. While each subsystem contributes differently to the risk of each technique, results show that there exists little relative difference in the reliability of these capture techniques although uncertainty for the aerocapture estimates remains high given the lack of in-space demonstration.

Developing a monitoring and verification plan with reference to the Australian Otway CO2 pilot project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dodds, K.; Daley, T.; Freifeld, B.

2009-05-01

The Australian Cooperative Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Technologies (CO2CRC) is currently injecting 100,000 tons of CO{sub 2} in a large-scale test of storage technology in a pilot project in southeastern Australia called the CO2CRC Otway Project. The Otway Basin, with its natural CO{sub 2} accumulations and many depleted gas fields, offers an appropriate site for such a pilot project. An 80% CO{sub 2} stream is produced from a well (Buttress) near the depleted gas reservoir (Naylor) used for storage (Figure 1). The goal of this project is to demonstrate that CO{sub 2} can be safely transported, stored underground, andmore » its behavior tracked and monitored. The monitoring and verification framework has been developed to monitor for the presence and behavior of CO{sub 2} in the subsurface reservoir, near surface, and atmosphere. This monitoring framework addresses areas, identified by a rigorous risk assessment, to verify conformance to clearly identifiable performance criteria. These criteria have been agreed with the regulatory authorities to manage the project through all phases addressing responsibilities, liabilities, and to assure the public of safe storage.« less

A Stochastic Multi-Attribute Assessment of Energy Options for Fairbanks, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, L.; Madani, K.; Mokhtari, S.; Hanks, C. L.; Sheets, B.

2012-12-01

Many competing projects have been proposed to address Interior Alaska's high cost of energy—both for electricity production and for heating. Public and private stakeholders are considering the costs associated with these competing projects which vary in fuel source, subsidy requirements, proximity, and other factors. As a result, the current projects under consideration involve a complex cost structure of potential subsidies and reliance on present and future market prices, introducing a significant amount of uncertainty associated with each selection. Multi-criteria multi-decision making (MCMDM) problems of this nature can benefit from game theory and systems engineering methods, which account for behavior and preferences of stakeholders in the analysis to produce feasible and relevant solutions. This work uses a stochastic MCMDM framework to evaluate the trade-offs of each proposed project based on a complete cost analysis, environmental impact, and long-term sustainability. Uncertainty in the model is quantified via a Monte Carlo analysis, which helps characterize the sensitivity and risk associated with each project. Based on performance measures and criteria outlined by the stakeholders, a decision matrix will inform policy on selecting a project that is both efficient and preferred by the constituents.

Integrating Allergen Analysis Within a Risk Assessment Framework: Approaches to Development of Targeted Mass Spectrometry Methods for Allergen Detection and Quantification in the iFAAM Project.

PubMed

Nitride, Chiara; Lee, Victoria; Baricevic-Jones, Ivona; Adel-Patient, Karine; Baumgartner, Sabine; Mills, E N Clare

2018-01-01

Allergen analysis is central to implementing and monitoring food allergen risk assessment and management processes by the food industry, but current methods for the determination of allergens in foods give highly variable results. The European Union-funded "Integrated Approaches to Food Allergen and Allergy Risk Management" (iFAAM) project has been working to address gaps in knowledge regarding food allergen management and analysis, including the development of novel MS and immuno-based allergen determination methods. Common allergenic food ingredients (peanut, hazelnut, walnut, cow's milk [Bos domesticus], and hen's egg [Gallus domesticus]) and common food matrixes (chocolate dessert and cookie) have been used for both clinical studies and analytical method development to ensure that the new methods are clinically relevant. Allergen molecules have been used as analytical targets and allergenic ingredients incurred into matrixes at levels close to reference doses that may trigger the use of precautionary allergen labeling. An interlaboratory method comparison has been undertaken for the determination of peanut in chocolate dessert using MS and immuno-based methods. The iFAAM approach has highlighted the need for methods to report test results in allergenic protein. This will allow food business operators to use them in risk assessments that are founded on clinical study data in which protein has been used as a measure of allergenic potency.

Examination of the association between mental health, morbidity, and mortality in late life: findings from longitudinal community surveys.

PubMed

Burns, Richard A; Butterworth, Peter; Browning, Colette; Byles, Julie; Luszcz, Mary; Mitchell, Paul; Shaw, Jonathan; Anstey, Kaarin J

2015-05-01

Physical health has been demonstrated to mediate the mental health and mortality risk association. The current study examines an alternative hypothesis that mental health mediates the effect of physical health on mortality risk. Participants (N = 14,019; women = 91%), including eventual decedents (n = 3,752), were aged 70 years and older, and drawn from the Dynamic Analyses to Optimise Ageing (DYNOPTA) project. Participants were observed on two to four occasions, over a 10-year period. Mediation analysis compared the converse mediation of physical and mental health on mortality risk. For men, neither physical nor mental health was associated with mortality risk. For women, poor mental health reported only a small effect on mortality risk (Hazard Risk (HR) = 1.01; p < 0.001); more substantive was the risk of low physical health (HR = 1.04; p < 0.001). No mediation effects were observed. Mental health effects on mortality were fully attenuated by physical health in men, and partially so in women. Neither mental nor physical health mediated the effect of each other on mortality risk for either gender. We conclude that physical health is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than mental health.

Experience with environmental issues in GM crop production and the likely future scenarios.

PubMed

Gaugitsch, Helmut

2002-02-28

In the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety, standards for risk assessment of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) have been set. The criteria and information basis for the risk assessment of GMOs have been modified by the EU Directive 2001/18/EC. Various approaches to further improve the criteria for environmental risk assessment of GMOs are described in this study. Reports on the ecological impacts of the cultivation of certain non-transgenic crop plants with novel or improved traits as analogy models to transgenic plants showed that the effects of agricultural practice can be at least equally important as the effects of gene transfer and invasiveness, although the latter currently play a major role in risk assessment of transgenic crops. Based on these results the applicability of the methodology of 'Life Cycle Analysis (LCA)' for genetically modified plants in comparison with conventionally bred and organically grown crop plants was evaluated. The methodology was regarded as applicable with some necessary future improvements. In current projects, the assessment of toxicology and allergenicity of GM crops are analysed, and suggestions for standardization are developed. Based on results and recommendations from these efforts there are still the challenges of how to operationalize the precautionary principle and how to take into account ecologically sensitive ecosystems, including centres of origin and centres of genetic diversity.

Flightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP) Model for Safety Technology Portfolio Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ancel, Ersin; Shih, Ann T.

2014-01-01

NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) develops and advances methodologies and technologies to improve air transportation safety. The Safety Analysis and Integration Team (SAIT) conducts a safety technology portfolio assessment (PA) to analyze the program content, to examine the benefits and risks of products with respect to program goals, and to support programmatic decision making. The PA process includes systematic identification of current and future safety risks as well as tracking several quantitative and qualitative metrics to ensure the program goals are addressing prominent safety risks accurately and effectively. One of the metrics within the PA process involves using quantitative aviation safety models to gauge the impact of the safety products. This paper demonstrates the role of aviation safety modeling by providing model outputs and evaluating a sample of portfolio elements using the Flightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP) model. The model enables not only ranking of the quantitative relative risk reduction impact of all portfolio elements, but also highlighting the areas with high potential impact via sensitivity and gap analyses in support of the program office. Although the model outputs are preliminary and products are notional, the process shown in this paper is essential to a comprehensive PA of NASA's safety products in the current program and future programs/projects.

Managing Risk and Uncertainty in Large-Scale University Research Projects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Sharlissa; Shangraw, R. F., Jr.

2011-01-01

Both publicly and privately funded research projects managed by universities are growing in size and scope. Complex, large-scale projects (over $50 million) pose new management challenges and risks for universities. This paper explores the relationship between project success and a variety of factors in large-scale university projects. First, we…

Integrated Research on the Development of Global Climate Risk Management Strategies - Framework and Initial Results of the Research Project ICA-RUS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emori, Seita; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Yamagata, Yoshiki; Oki, Taikan; Mori, Shunsuke; Fujigaki, Yuko

2013-04-01

With the aim of proposing strategies of global climate risk management, we have launched a five-year research project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). In this project with the phrase "risk management" in its title, we aspire for a comprehensive assessment of climate change risks, explicit consideration of uncertainties, utilization of best available information, and consideration of every possible conditions and options. We also regard the problem as one of decision-making at the human level, which involves social value judgments and adapts to future changes in circumstances. The ICA-RUS project consists of the following five themes: 1) Synthesis of global climate risk management strategies, 2) Optimization of land, water and ecosystem uses for climate risk management, 3) Identification and analysis of critical climate risks, 4) Evaluation of climate risk management options under technological, social and economic uncertainties and 5) Interactions between scientific and social rationalities in climate risk management (see also: http://www.nies.go.jp/ica-rus/en/). For the integration of quantitative knowledge of climate change risks and responses, we apply a tool named AIM/Impact [Policy], which consists of an energy-economic model, a simplified climate model and impact projection modules. At the same time, in order to make use of qualitative knowledge as well, we hold monthly project meetings for the discussion of risk management strategies and publish annual reports based on the quantitative and qualitative information. To enhance the comprehensiveness of the analyses, we maintain an inventory of risks and risk management options. The inventory is revised iteratively through interactive meetings with stakeholders such as policymakers, government officials and industrial representatives.

Application of Ecosystem Models to Assess Environmental Drivers of Mosquito Abundance and Virus Transmission Risk and Associated Public Health Implications of Climate and Land Use Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melton, F.; Barker, C.; Park, B.; Reisen, W.; Michaelis, A.; Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Milesi, C.; Hiatt, S.; Nemani, R.

2008-12-01

The NASA Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) is a modeling framework that integrates satellite observations, meteorological observations, and ancillary data to support monitoring and modeling of ecosystem and land surface conditions in near real-time. TOPS provides spatially continuous gridded estimates of a suite of measurements describing environmental conditions, and these data products are currently being applied to support the development of new models capable of forecasting estimated mosquito abundance and transmission risk for mosquito-borne diseases such as West Nile virus. We present results from the modeling analyses, describe their incorporation into the California Vectorborne Disease Surveillance System, and describe possible implications of projected climate and land use change for patterns in mosquito abundance and transmission risk for West Nile virus in California.

Modeling Research Project Risks with Fuzzy Maps

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bodea, Constanta Nicoleta; Dascalu, Mariana Iuliana

2009-01-01

The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research…

Engineered nanomaterial risk. Lessons learnt from completed nanotoxicology studies: potential solutions to current and future challenges.

PubMed

Johnston, Helinor; Pojana, Giulio; Zuin, Stefano; Jacobsen, Nicklas Raun; Møller, Peter; Loft, Steffen; Semmler-Behnke, Manuela; McGuiness, Catherine; Balharry, Dominique; Marcomini, Antonio; Wallin, Håkan; Kreyling, Wolfgang; Donaldson, Ken; Tran, Lang; Stone, Vicki

2013-01-01

PARTICLE_RISK was one of the first multidisciplinary projects funded by the European Commission's Framework Programme that was responsible for evaluating the implications of nanomaterial (NM) exposure on human health. This project was the basis for this review which identifies the challenges that exist within the assessment of NM risk. We have retrospectively reflected on the findings of completed nanotoxicology studies to consider what progress and advances have been made within the risk assessment of NMs, as well as discussing the direction that nanotoxicology research is taking and identifying the limitations and failings of existing research. We have reflected on what commonly encountered challenges exist and explored how these issues may be resolved. In particular, the following is discussed (i) NM selection (ii) NM physico-chemical characterisation; (iii) NM dispersion; (iv) selection of relevant doses and concentrations; (v) identification of relevant models, target sites and endpoints; (vi) development of alternatives to animal testing; and (vii) NM risk assessment. These knowledge gaps are relatively well recognised by the scientific community and recommendations as to how they may be overcome in the future are provided. It is hoped that this will help develop better defined hypothesis driven research in the future that will enable comprehensive risk assessments to be conducted for NMs. Importantly, the nanotoxicology community has responded and adapted to advances in knowledge over recent years to improve the approaches used to assess NM hazard, exposure and risk. It is vital to learn from existing information provided by ongoing or completed studies to avoid unnecessary duplication of effort, and to offer guidance on aspects of the experimental design that should be carefully considered prior to the start of a new study.

Crop connectivity under climate change: future environmental and geographic risks of potato late blight in Scotland.

PubMed

Skelsey, Peter; Cooke, David E L; Lynott, James S; Lees, Alison K

2016-11-01

The impact of climate change on dispersal processes is largely ignored in risk assessments for crop diseases, as inoculum is generally assumed to be ubiquitous and nonlimiting. We suggest that consideration of the impact of climate change on the connectivity of crops for inoculum transmission may provide additional explanatory and predictive power in disease risk assessments, leading to improved recommendations for agricultural adaptation to climate change. In this study, a crop-growth model was combined with aerobiological models and a newly developed infection risk model to provide a framework for quantifying the impact of future climates on the risk of disease occurrence and spread. The integrated model uses standard meteorological variables and can be easily adapted to various crop pathosystems characterized by airborne inoculum. In a case study, the framework was used with data defining the spatial distribution of potato crops in Scotland and spatially coherent, probabilistic climate change data to project the future connectivity of crop distributions for Phytophthora infestans (causal agent of potato late blight) inoculum and the subsequent risk of infection. Projections and control recommendations are provided for multiple combinations of potato cultivar and CO 2 emissions scenario, and temporal and spatial averaging schemes. Overall, we found that relative to current climatic conditions, the risk of late blight will increase in Scotland during the first half of the potato growing season and decrease during the second half. To guide adaptation strategies, we also investigated the potential impact of climate change-driven shifts in the cropping season. Advancing the start of the potato growing season by 1 month proved to be an effective strategy from both an agronomic and late blight management perspective. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The effect of dose heterogeneity on radiation risk in medical imaging.

PubMed

Samei, Ehsan; Li, Xiang; Chen, Baiyu; Reiman, Robert

2013-06-01

The current estimations of risk associated with medical imaging procedures rely on assessing the organ dose via direct measurements or simulation. The dose to each organ is assumed to be homogeneous. To take into account the differences in radiation sensitivities, the mean organ doses are weighted by a corresponding tissue-weighting coefficients provided by ICRP to calculate the effective dose, which has been used as a surrogate of radiation risk. However, those coefficients were derived under the assumption of a homogeneous dose distribution within each organ. That assumption is significantly violated in most medical-imaging procedures. In helical chest CT, for example, superficial organs (e.g. breasts) demonstrate a heterogeneous dose distribution, whereas organs on the peripheries of the irradiation field (e.g. liver) might possess a discontinuous dose profile. Projection radiography and mammography involve an even higher level of organ dose heterogeneity spanning up to two orders of magnitude. As such, mean dose or point measured dose values do not reflect the maximum energy deposited per unit volume of the organ. In this paper, the magnitude of the dose heterogeneity in both CT and projection X-ray imaging was reported, using Monte Carlo methods. The lung dose demonstrated factors of 1.7 and 2.2 difference between the mean and maximum dose for chest CT and radiography, respectively. The corresponding values for the liver were 1.9 and 3.5. For mammography and breast tomosynthesis, the difference between mean glandular dose and maximum glandular dose was 3.1. Risk models based on the mean dose were found to provide a reasonable reflection of cancer risk. However, for leukaemia, they were found to significantly under-represent the risk when the organ dose distribution is heterogeneous. A systematic study is needed to develop a risk model for heterogeneous dose distributions.

[The ReWiKs project : Current results of research into participation opportunities for adults with disabilities in the area of sexual self-determination].

PubMed

Ortland, Barbara; Jennessen, Sven; Römisch, Kathrin; Kusber-Merkens, Dorothea; Reichert, Leonie; Arlabosse, Anneke

2016-09-01

Several studies point to various barriers in achieving sexual self-determination for people with disabilities as well as a high degree of thematic uncertainty among staff in residential homes. In addition, women with disabilities and people in institutions are especially at risk in a particular way, to be victims of sexual violence. The ReWiKs project develops, based on evaluated guidelines for sexual self-determination, materials in order to reflect the institutional handling of the subject. Training modules and recommendations are also developed. In addition, extracts of materials are created in simple language. All materials are evaluated before their publication in an intensive theory-practice dialogue.

Quality assurance and improvement: the Pediatric Regional Anesthesia Network.

PubMed

Polaner, David M; Martin, Lynn D

2012-01-01

Quality assurance and improvement (QA/QI) is a critical activity in medicine. The use of large-scale collaborative databases is increasingly essential to obtain enough reports with which to establish standards of practice and define the incidence of complications and risk/benefit ratios for rare events. Such projects can enhance local QA/QI endeavors by enabling institutions to obtain benchmark data against which to compare their performance and can be used for prospective analyses of inter-institutional differences to determine 'best practice'. The pediatric regional anesthesia network (PRAN) is such a project. The first data cohort is currently being analyzed and offers insight into how such data can be used to detect trends in adverse events and improve care. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Sea-level Rise Increases the Frequency of Nuisance Flooding in Coastal Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moftakhari Rostamkhani, H.; Aghakouchak, A.; Sanders, B. F.; Feldman, D.; Sweet, W.; Matthew, R.; Luke, A.

2015-12-01

The global warming-drivensea-level rise (SLR) posesa serious threat for population and assets in flood-prone coastal zones over the next century. The rate of SLR is accelerated in recent decades and is expected to increase based on current trajectories of anthropogenic activities and greenhouse gas emissions. Over the 20th century, an increase in the frequency of nuisance (minor) flooding has been reported due to the reduced gap between tidal datum and flood stage. Nuisance flooding (NF), however non-destructive, causes public inconvenience, business interruption, and substantial economic losses due to impacts such as road closures and degradation of infrastructure. It also portends an increased risk in severe floods. Here we report substantial increases in NF along the coasts of United States due to SLR over the past decades. We then take the projected SLR under the least and the most extreme representative concentration pathways (e.gRCP2.6 and RCP 8.5) to estimate the increase in NF in the near- (2030) and mid-term (2050) future. The results suggest that projected SLR will cause up to two-fold more frequent NF by 2050, compared with the 20th century. The projected increase in NF will have significant socio-economic impacts and pose public health risks especially in rapidly urbanized coastal regions.

A resilience perspective to water risk management: case-study application of the adaptation tipping point method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gersonius, Berry; Ashley, Richard; Jeuken, Ad; Nasruddin, Fauzy; Pathirana, Assela; Zevenbergen, Chris

2010-05-01

In a context of high uncertainty about hydrological variables due to climate change and other factors, the development of updated risk management approaches is as important as—if not more important than—the provision of improved data and forecasts of the future. Traditional approaches to adaptation attempt to manage future water risks to cities with the use of the predict-then-adapt method. This method uses hydrological change projections as the starting point to identify adaptive strategies, which is followed by analysing the cause-effect chain based on some sort of Pressures-State-Impact-Response (PSIR) scheme. The predict-then-adapt method presumes that it is possible to define a singular (optimal) adaptive strategy according to a most likely or average projection of future change. A key shortcoming of the method is, however, that the planning of water management structures is typically decoupled from forecast uncertainties and is, as such, inherently inflexible. This means that there is an increased risk of under- or over-adaptation, resulting in either mal-functioning or unnecessary costs. Rather than taking a traditional approach, responsible water risk management requires an alternative approach to adaptation that recognises and cultivates resiliency for change. The concept of resiliency relates to the capability of complex socio-technical systems to make aspirational levels of functioning attainable despite the occurrence of possible changes. Focusing on resiliency does not attempt to reduce uncertainty associated with future change, but rather to develop better ways of managing it. This makes it a particularly relevant perspective for adaptation to long-term hydrological change. Although resiliency is becoming more refined as a theory, the application of the concept to water risk management is still in an initial phase. Different methods are used in practice to support the implementation of a resilience-focused approach. Typically these approaches start the identification and analysis of adaptive strategies at the end of PSIR scheme: impact and examine whether, and for how long, current risk management strategies will continue to be effective under different future conditions. The most noteworthy application of this approach is the adaptation tipping point method. Adaptation tipping points (ATP) are defined as the points where the magnitude of change is such that the current risk management strategy can no longer meet its objectives. In the ATP method, policy objectives, determining aspirational functioning, are taken as the starting point. Also, the current measures to achieve these objectives are described. This is followed by a sensitivity analysis to determine the optimal and critical boundary conditions (state). Lastly, the state is related to pressures in terms of future change. It should be noted that in the ATP method the driver for adopting a new risk management strategy is not future change as such, but rather failing to meet the policy objectives. In the current paper, the ATP method is applied to the case study of an existing stormwater system in Dordrecht (the Netherlands). This application shows the potential of the ATP method to reduce the complexity of implementing a resilience-focused approach to water risk management. It is expected that this will help foster greater practical relevance of resilience as a perspective for the planning of water management structures.

Instantaneous Project Controls: Current Status, State of the Art, Benefits, and Strategies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abbaszadegan, Amin

2016-01-01

Despite advancements in construction and construction-related technology, capital project performance deviations, typically overruns, remain endemic within the capital projects industry. Currently, management is generally unaware of the current status of their projects, and thus monitoring and control of projects are not achieved effectively. In…

A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escuder-Bueno, I.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Zechner, S.; Jöbstl, C.; Perales-Momparler, S.; Petaccia, G.

2012-09-01

Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009-2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

Quantitative risk management in gas injection project: a case study from Oman oil and gas industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khadem, Mohammad Miftaur Rahman Khan; Piya, Sujan; Shamsuzzoha, Ahm

2017-09-01

The purpose of this research was to study the recognition, application and quantification of the risks associated in managing projects. In this research, the management of risks in an oil and gas project is studied and implemented within a case company in Oman. In this study, at first, the qualitative data related to risks in the project were identified through field visits and extensive interviews. These data were then translated into numerical values based on the expert's opinion. Further, the numerical data were used as an input to Monte Carlo simulation. RiskyProject Professional™ software was used to simulate the system based on the identified risks. The simulation result predicted a delay of about 2 years as a worse case with no chance of meeting the project's on stream date. Also, it has predicted 8% chance of exceeding the total estimated budget. The result of numerical analysis from the proposed model is validated by comparing it with the result of qualitative analysis, which was obtained through discussion with various project managers of company.

EC FP6 Enviro-RISKS project outcomes in area of Earth and Space Science Informatics applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordov, E. P.; Zakarin, E. A.

2009-04-01

Nowadays the community acknowledged that to understand dynamics of regional environment properly and perform its assessment on the base of monitoring and modeling more strong involvement of information-computational technologies (ICT) is required, which should lead to development of information-computational infrastructure as an inherent part of such investigations. This paper is based on the Report&Recommendations (www.dmi.dk/dmi/sr08-05-4.pdf) of the Enviro-RISKS (Man-induced Environmental Risks: Monitoring, Management and Remediation of Man-made Changes in Siberia) Project Thematic expert group for Information Systems, Integration and Synthesis Focus and presents results of activities of Project Partners in area of Information Technologies for Environmental Sciences development and usage. Approaches used the web-based Information Technologies and the GIS-based Information Technologies are described and a way to their integration is outlined. In particular, developed in course of the Project carrying out Enviro-RISKS web portal and its Climate site (http://climate.risks.scert.ru/), providing an access to interactive web-system for regional climate assessment on the base of standard meteorological data archives, which is a key element of the information-computational infrastructure of the Siberia Integrated Regional Study (SIRS), is described in details as well as developed on the base of GIS technology system for monitoring and modeling air and water pollutions transport and transformations. The later is quite useful for practical applications realization of geoinformation modeling, in which relevant mathematical models are plunged into GIS and all the modeling and analysis phases are accomplished in the informational sphere, based on the real data including those coming from satellites. Major efforts currently are undertaken in attempt to integrate GIS based environmental applications with web accessibility, computing power and data interoperability thus to exploit completely huge potential of web bases technologies. In particular, development of a region devoted web portal using approached suggested by the Open Geospatial Consortium has been started recently. The state of the art of the information-computational infrastructure in the targeted region is quite a step in the process of development of a distributed collaborative information-computational environment to support multidisciplinary investigations of Earth regional environment, especially those required meteorology, atmospheric pollution transport and climate modeling. Established in process of the Project carrying out cooperative links, new Partners initiatives, and gained expertise allow us to hope that this infrastructure rather soon will make significant input into understanding regional environmental processes in their relationships with Global Change. In particular, this infrastructure will play a role of the 'underlying mechanics' of the research work, leaving the earth scientists to concentrate on their investigations as well as providing the environment to make research results available and understandable to everyone. Additionally to the core FP6 Enviro-RISKS project (INCO-CT-2004-013427) support this activity was partially supported by SB RAS Integration Project 34, SB RAS Basic Program Project 4.5.2.2 and APN Project CBA2007-08NSY. Valuable input into the expert group work and elaborated outcomes of Profs. V. Lykosov and A. Starchenko, Drs. D. Belikov, , M. Korets, S. Kostrykin, B. Mirkarimova, I. Okladnikov, , A. Titov and A. Tridvornov is acknowledged.

An Analysis of the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Dengue Transmission in the Southeastern United States.

PubMed

Butterworth, Melinda K; Morin, Cory W; Comrie, Andrew C

2017-04-01

Dengue fever, caused by a mosquito-transmitted virus, is an increasing health concern in the Americas. Meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation can affect disease distribution and abundance through biophysical impacts on the vector and on the virus. Such tightly coupled links may facilitate further spread of dengue fever under a changing climate. In the southeastern United States, the dengue vector is widely established and exists on the current fringe of dengue transmission. We assessed projected climate change-driven shifts in dengue transmission risk in this region. We used a dynamic mosquito population and virus transmission model driven by meteorological data to simulate Aedes aegypti populations and dengue cases in 23 locations in the southeastern United States under current climate conditions and future climate projections. We compared estimates for each location with simulations based on observed data from San Juan, Puerto Rico, where dengue is endemic. Our simulations based on current climate data suggest that dengue transmission at levels similar to those in San Juan is possible at several U.S. locations during the summer months, particularly in southern Florida and Texas. Simulations that include climate change projections suggest that conditions may become suitable for virus transmission in a larger number of locations and for a longer period of time during each year. However, in contrast with San Juan, U.S. locations would not sustain year-round dengue transmission according to our model. Our findings suggest that Dengue virus (DENV) transmission is limited by low winter temperatures in the mainland United States, which are likely to prevent its permanent establishment. Although future climate conditions may increase the length of the mosquito season in many locations, projected increases in dengue transmission are limited to the southernmost locations.

The Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Agricultural Pests: The Case of the Coffee White Stem Borer (Monochamus leuconotus P.) in Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

Kutywayo, Dumisani; Chemura, Abel; Kusena, Winmore; Chidoko, Pardon; Mahoya, Caleb

2013-01-01

The production of agricultural commodities faces increased risk of pests, diseases and other stresses due to climate change and variability. This study assesses the potential distribution of agricultural pests under projected climatic scenarios using evidence from the African coffee white stem borer (CWB), Monochamus leuconotus (Pascoe) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), an important pest of coffee in Zimbabwe. A species distribution modeling approach utilising Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and Generalized Linear Models (GLM) was applied on current and projected climate data obtained from the WorldClim database and occurrence data (presence and absence) collected through on-farm biological surveys in Chipinge, Chimanimani, Mutare and Mutasa districts in Zimbabwe. Results from both the BRT and GLM indicate that precipitation-related variables are more important in determining species range for the CWB than temperature related variables. The CWB has extensive potential habitats in all coffee areas with Mutasa district having the largest model average area suitable for CWB under current and projected climatic conditions. Habitat ranges for CWB will increase under future climate scenarios for Chipinge, Chimanimani and Mutare districts while it will decrease in Mutasa district. The highest percentage change in area suitable for the CWB was for Chimanimani district with a model average of 49.1% (3 906 ha) increase in CWB range by 2080. The BRT and GLM predictions gave similar predicted ranges for Chipinge, Chimanimani and Mutasa districts compared to the high variation in current and projected habitat area for CWB in Mutare district. The study concludes that suitable area for CWB will increase significantly in Zimbabwe due to climate change and there is need to develop adaptation mechanisms. PMID:24014222

Risk analysis for renewable energy projects due to constraints arising

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prostean, G.; Vasar, C.; Prostean, O.; Vartosu, A.

2016-02-01

Starting from the target of the European Union (EU) to use renewable energy in the area that aims a binding target of 20% renewable energy in final energy consumption by 2020, this article illustrates the identification of risks for implementation of wind energy projects in Romania, which could lead to complex technical implications, social and administrative. In specific projects analyzed in this paper were identified critical bottlenecks in the future wind power supply chain and reasonable time periods that may arise. Renewable energy technologies have to face a number of constraints that delayed scaling-up their production process, their transport process, the equipment reliability, etc. so implementing these types of projects requiring complex specialized team, the coordination of which also involve specific risks. The research team applied an analytical risk approach to identify major risks encountered within a wind farm project developed in Romania in isolated regions with different particularities, configured for different geographical areas (hill and mountain locations in Romania). Identification of major risks was based on the conceptual model set up for the entire project implementation process. Throughout this conceptual model there were identified specific constraints of such process. Integration risks were examined by an empirical study based on the method HAZOP (Hazard and Operability). The discussion describes the analysis of our results implementation context of renewable energy projects in Romania and creates a framework for assessing energy supply to any entity from renewable sources.

Reintroducing Guanaco in the Upper Belt of Central Argentina: Using Population Viability Analysis to Evaluate Extinction Risk and Management Priorities

PubMed Central

Barri, Fernando Rafael

2016-01-01

Wildlife reintroduction is an increasingly used strategy to reverse anthropocene defaunation. For the purpose of ecosystem restoration, in 2007 the guanaco (Lama guanicoe) was reintroduced to the Quebrada del Condorito National Park, situated in the mountains of central Argentina. With the aim of developing management recommendations, the project included permanently monitoring the population to evaluate its dynamics and the ecological response of the individuals released into the area. Nine years later and after two releases of guanacos (113 individuals in 2007 without and 25 in 2011 with a pre-adaptation period), only 24 individuals, which conform three reproductive groups, and one group of solitary males were settled in the Park. Here I modeled a population viability analysis to evaluate extinction risk, using VORTEX software. Initial population structure, specified age distribution, mortality and reproductive rates, and mate monopolization recorded during field work were used in the model, whereas the remaining used demographic parameters, such as age of first offspring, maximum number of broods per year, mean foaling rate, and length of fecundity period, were taken from the literature. Each of the three different scenarios (without supplementation of individuals, and with a realistic and optimistic supplementation) and two possible catastrophic events (fires and food shortage) covering 100 years was repeated 1000 times. Even though the guanaco reintroduction project can be considered to have been partially successful since its start, the model predicts that the current reintroduced population could be extinct in the next few decades if no reinforcements occur, and that only a continuous supplementation can reach the probability that the population survives over the next 100 years. I conclude that, so far, the current population is at a high risk of extinction if further supplementation of individuals is discontinued. PMID:27741302

Towards a more effective and efficient governance and regulation of nanomaterials.

PubMed

Teunenbroek, Tom Van; Baker, James; Dijkzeul, Aart

2017-12-19

The uncertainty regarding the effects and risks of nanomaterials on human health and the environment, and how they should be tested and assessed in the context of current regulations, is clearly holding back the full exploitation of the innovative potential of nanomaterials. To reduce this uncertainty, the European Union funded NANoREG and ProSafe projects (jointly referred to as N1P) have made a critical evaluation of methods to test and assess these risks in the context of the current registration, evaluation, authorisation and restriction of chemicals (REACH) regulation. Where essential methods were lacking, new ones have been developed. For several existing methods, adjustments have been proposed. Possible improvements to the REACH regulation have also been identified in these projects. The results of N1P have been translated into recommendations for (European) policy makers and regulators. Part of them have a "no regret" character, meaning that the proposed actions can be considered as necessary, feasible, effective and cost efficient. The recommended measures proposed for data quality and data management will create a more solid information basis for risk assessment of nanomaterials. When implemented, the recommendations regarding REACH will improve the application of REACH in both a legal and scientific sense. In practical terms however, the application of REACH will remain complex, time-consuming and costly. Besides that, adapting and specifying the information requirements and test methods in REACH for nanomaterials that are now on the market, will not solve the regulatory hurdles for next generation (nano) materials. To better align the dynamic character of developing new materials and the static character of regulations, it is recommended to explore possibilities of a more future proof approach for securing the safety of new (nano) materials.

Reintroducing Guanaco in the Upper Belt of Central Argentina: Using Population Viability Analysis to Evaluate Extinction Risk and Management Priorities.

PubMed

Barri, Fernando Rafael

2016-01-01

Wildlife reintroduction is an increasingly used strategy to reverse anthropocene defaunation. For the purpose of ecosystem restoration, in 2007 the guanaco (Lama guanicoe) was reintroduced to the Quebrada del Condorito National Park, situated in the mountains of central Argentina. With the aim of developing management recommendations, the project included permanently monitoring the population to evaluate its dynamics and the ecological response of the individuals released into the area. Nine years later and after two releases of guanacos (113 individuals in 2007 without and 25 in 2011 with a pre-adaptation period), only 24 individuals, which conform three reproductive groups, and one group of solitary males were settled in the Park. Here I modeled a population viability analysis to evaluate extinction risk, using VORTEX software. Initial population structure, specified age distribution, mortality and reproductive rates, and mate monopolization recorded during field work were used in the model, whereas the remaining used demographic parameters, such as age of first offspring, maximum number of broods per year, mean foaling rate, and length of fecundity period, were taken from the literature. Each of the three different scenarios (without supplementation of individuals, and with a realistic and optimistic supplementation) and two possible catastrophic events (fires and food shortage) covering 100 years was repeated 1000 times. Even though the guanaco reintroduction project can be considered to have been partially successful since its start, the model predicts that the current reintroduced population could be extinct in the next few decades if no reinforcements occur, and that only a continuous supplementation can reach the probability that the population survives over the next 100 years. I conclude that, so far, the current population is at a high risk of extinction if further supplementation of individuals is discontinued.

[Sustainability of ecological water transfer and rehabilitation project based on participatory survey].

PubMed

Wang, Yu; Feng, Qi; Chen, Li-Juan; Yu, Teng-Fei

2014-01-01

In the arid inland area of Northwest China, the ecological water transfer and rehabilitation project (EWTRP) is an important measure to restore the deteriorated ecosystem. However, the sustainability of the project is affected by many socio-economic factors. This research was based on results of the questionnaire from Ejina County's farmer households, which included the farmer households' attitude, livelihood and the efficiency of the water resource usage. The results showed that although the EWTRP had made great achievements in vegetation restoration, but the sustainability of the project was affected by the following factors: the ecologically-motivated relocated/resettled herdsmen mainly relied on the compensation from the project, causing them a hard living, and increasing the risk of maintaining the current achievement; the project didn't have a positive impact on water-saving agriculture, the efficiency of water usage was relatively low and had not yet reached the final goal; the compensation of the project only considered the loss of agriculture, but neglected the externality and publicity of eco-water. We suggest that developing education, offering job opportunity and training programs, improving the efficiency of water usage and establishing reasonable water resources compensation mechanisms are needed to be considered as main domain of environmental recovery as well as ecological water transfer and rehabilitation.

Critical study of current situation of Vrănicioara tailing pond on Cavnicului Valley, risks and consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bud, I.; Duma, S.; Gusat, D.; Pasca, I.; Bud, A.

2017-05-01

In northern Romania, there are numerous tailing ponds, resulting from mining activities that present significant environmental risks. Some of them, including Vrănicioara tailing pond, were the subject of technical projects for ecological rehabilitation. Vrănicioara pond is located on the right side of Cavnic Valley, downstream Cavnic town, about 4 kilometers far. It has about 500 m length and is located parallel to the road linking Baia Sprie and Cavnic localities. Chemical and physical stability of the tailing pond before rehabilitation interest the research, analysis and conclusions were published in several scientific meetings. In addition, close to the pond at less than 100 m, an open pit has developed, exploiting andesite by mining blast, increasing the risk of physical stability by continuous exposure to vibration. This activity currently continues, advancing towards the tailing pond body. The critical study addresses the current state of Vrănicioara Tailing Pond, analysis of some rehabilitation works done incorrectly, analysis of chemical stability that was not a priority during rehabilitation. Research intention is heading to water analysis confirming the existence of acid drainage that was not stopped or at least reduced. The scientific approach is based on the Technical Standards for Waste Deposits, in force in Romania, providing the rules to ensure physical and chemical stability.

Continental-scale assessment of risk to the Australian odonata from climate change.

PubMed

Bush, Alex A; Nipperess, David A; Duursma, Daisy E; Theischinger, Gunther; Turak, Eren; Hughes, Lesley

2014-01-01

Climate change is expected to have substantial impacts on the composition of freshwater communities, and many species are threatened by the loss of climatically suitable habitat. In this study we identify Australian Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies) vulnerable to the effects of climate change on the basis of exposure, sensitivity and pressure to disperse in the future. We used an ensemble of species distribution models to predict the distribution of 270 (85%) species of Australian Odonata, continent-wide at the subcatchment scale, and for both current and future climates using two emissions scenarios each for 2055 and 2085. Exposure was scored according to the departure of temperature, precipitation and hydrology from current conditions. Sensitivity accounted for change in the area and suitability of projected climatic habitat, and pressure to disperse combined measurements of average habitat shifts and the loss experienced with lower dispersal rates. Streams and rivers important to future conservation efforts were identified based on the sensitivity-weighted sum of habitat suitability for the most vulnerable species. The overall extent of suitable habitat declined for 56-69% of the species modelled by 2085 depending on emissions scenario. The proportion of species at risk across all components (exposure, sensitivity, pressure to disperse) varied between 7 and 17% from 2055 to 2085 and a further 3-17% of species were also projected to be at high risk due to declines that did not require range shifts. If dispersal to Tasmania was limited, many south-eastern species are at significantly increased risk. Conservation efforts will need to focus on creating and preserving freshwater refugia as part of a broader conservation strategy that improves connectivity and promotes adaptive range shifts. The significant predicted shifts in suitable habitat could potentially exceed the dispersal capacity of Odonata and highlights the challenge faced by other freshwater species.