Ice2sea - the future glacial contribution to sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, D. G.; Ice2sea Consortium

2009-04-01

The melting of continental ice (glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets) is a substantial source of current sea-level rise, and one that is accelerating more rapidly than was predicted even a few years ago. Indeed, the most recent report from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighted that the uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise is dominated by uncertainty concerning continental ice, and that understanding of the key processes that will lead to loss of continental ice must be improved before reliable projections of sea-level rise can be produced. Such projections are urgently required for effective sea-defence management and coastal adaptation planning. Ice2sea is a consortium of European institutes and international partners seeking European funding to support an integrated scientific programme to improve understanding concerning the future glacial contribution to sea-level rise. This includes improving understanding of the processes that control, past, current and future sea-level rise, and generation of improved estimates of the contribution of glacial components to sea-level rise over the next 200 years. The programme will include targeted studies of key processes in mountain glacier systems and ice caps (e.g. Svalbard), and in ice sheets in both polar regions (Greenland and Antarctica) to improve understanding of how these systems will respond to future climate change. It will include fieldwork and remote sensing studies, and develop a suite of new, cross-validated glacier and ice-sheet model. Ice2sea will deliver these results in forms accessible to scientists, policy-makers and the general public, which will include clear presentations of the sources of uncertainty. Our aim is both, to provide improved projections of the glacial contribution to sea-level rise, and to leave a legacy of improved tools and techniques that will form the basis of ongoing refinements in sea-level projection. Ice2sea will provide exciting opportunities for many early-career glaciologists and ice-modellers in a variety of host institutes.

Seasonal Ice Zone Reconnaissance Surveys Coordination and Ocean Profiles

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

Morison), UpTempO buoy measurements of sea surface temperature (SST), sea level atmospheric pressure ( SLP ), and velocity (Steele), and dropsonde...dropsondes, micro-aircraft), cloud top/base heights UpTempO buoys for understanding and prediction…. Steele UpTempO buoy drops for SLP , SST, SSS...Air Expendable Current Profiler, SLP = Sea Level atmospheric Pressure, SST= Seas Surface Temperature, A/C= aircraft, SIC=Sea Ice Concentration We

Current state and future perspectives on coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Boer, Bas; Stocchi, Paolo; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

2017-08-01

The interaction between ice-sheet growth and retreat and sea-level change has been an established field of research for many years. However, recent advances in numerical modelling have shed new light on the precise interaction of marine ice sheets with the change in near-field sea level, and the related stability of the grounding line position. Studies using fully coupled ice-sheet - sea-level models have shown that accounting for gravitationally self-consistent sea-level change will act to slow down the retreat and advance of marine ice-sheet grounding lines. Moreover, by simultaneously solving the 'sea-level equation' and modelling ice-sheet flow, coupled models provide a global field of relative sea-level change that is consistent with dynamic changes in ice-sheet extent. In this paper we present an overview of recent advances, possible caveats, methodologies and challenges involved in coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling. We conclude by presenting a first-order comparison between a suite of relative sea-level data and output from a coupled ice-sheet - sea-level model.

Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise

PubMed Central

Haigh, Ivan D.; Wahl, Thomas; Rohling, Eelco J.; Price, René M.; Pattiaratchi, Charitha B.; Calafat, Francisco M.; Dangendorf, Sönke

2014-01-01

There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records. PMID:24728012

Bayesian Statistical Analysis of Historical and Late Holocene Rates of Sea-Level Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahill, Niamh; Parnell, Andrew; Kemp, Andrew; Horton, Benjamin

2014-05-01

A fundamental concern associated with climate change is the rate at which sea levels are rising. Studies of past sea level (particularly beyond the instrumental data range) allow modern sea-level rise to be placed in a more complete context. Considering this, we perform a Bayesian statistical analysis on historical and late Holocene rates of sea-level change. The data that form the input to the statistical model are tide-gauge measurements and proxy reconstructions from cores of coastal sediment. The aims are to estimate rates of sea-level rise, to determine when modern rates of sea-level rise began and to observe how these rates have been changing over time. Many of the current methods for doing this use simple linear regression to estimate rates. This is often inappropriate as it is too rigid and it can ignore uncertainties that arise as part of the data collection exercise. This can lead to over confidence in the sea-level trends being characterized. The proposed Bayesian model places a Gaussian process prior on the rate process (i.e. the process that determines how rates of sea-level are changing over time). The likelihood of the observed data is the integral of this process. When dealing with proxy reconstructions, this is set in an errors-in-variables framework so as to take account of age uncertainty. It is also necessary, in this case, for the model to account for glacio-isostatic adjustment, which introduces a covariance between individual age and sea-level observations. This method provides a flexible fit and it allows for the direct estimation of the rate process with full consideration of all sources of uncertainty. Analysis of tide-gauge datasets and proxy reconstructions in this way means that changing rates of sea level can be estimated more comprehensively and accurately than previously possible. The model captures the continuous and dynamic evolution of sea-level change and results show that not only are modern sea levels rising but that the rates of rise are continuously increasing. Analysis of the a global tide-gauge record (Church and White, 2011) indicated that the rate of sea-level rise increased continuously since 1880AD and is currently 2.57mm/yr (95% credible interval of 1.71 to 4.35mm/yr). Application of the model a proxy reconstruction from North Carolina (Kemp et al., 2011) indicated that the mean rate of rise in this locality since the middle of the 19th century (current rate of 2.66 mm/yr with a 95% credible interval of 1.29 to 4.59mm/yr) is in agreement with results from the tide gauge analysis and is unprecedented in at least the last 2000 years.

Coastal Storm Hazards from Virginia to Maine

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-01

study, storm surge, tide, waves, wind, atmospheric pressure, and currents were the dominant storm responses computed. The effect of sea level change on...coastal storm hazards and vulnerability nationally (USACE 2015). NACCS goals also included evaluating the effect of future sea level change (SLC) on...the computed high-fidelity responses included storm surge, astronomical tide, waves, wave effects on water levels, storm duration, wind, currents

Dynamically balanced absolute sea level of the global ocean derived from near-surface velocity observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niiler, Pearn P.; Maximenko, Nikolai A.; McWilliams, James C.

2003-11-01

The 1992-2002 time-mean absolute sea level distribution of the global ocean is computed for the first time from observations of near-surface velocity. For this computation, we use the near-surface horizontal momentum balance. The velocity observed by drifters is used to compute the Coriolis force and the force due to acceleration of water parcels. The anomaly of horizontal pressure gradient is derived from satellite altimetry and corrects the temporal bias in drifter data distribution. NCEP reanalysis winds are used to compute the force due to Ekman currents. The mean sea level gradient force, which closes the momentum balance, is integrated for mean sea level. We find that our computation agrees, within uncertainties, with the sea level computed from the geostrophic, hydrostatic momentum balance using historical mean density, except in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. A consistent horizontally and vertically dynamically balanced, near-surface, global pressure field has now been derived from observations.

Large-scale forcing of the European Slope Current and associated inflows to the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsh, Robert; Haigh, Ivan; Cunningham, Stuart; Inall, Mark; Porter, Marie; Moat, Ben

2017-04-01

Drifters drogued at 50 m in the European Slope Current at the Hebridean shelf break follow a wide range of pathways, indicating highly variable Atlantic inflow to the North Sea. Slope Current pathways, timescales and transports over 1988-2007 are further quantified in an eddy-resolving ocean model hindcast. Particle trajectories calculated with model currents indicate that Slope Current water is largely "recruited" from the eastern subpolar North Atlantic. Observations of absolute dynamic topography and climatological density support theoretical expectations that Slope Current transport is to first order associated with meridional density gradients in the eastern subpolar gyre, which support a geostrophic inflow towards the slope. In the model hindcast, Slope Current transport variability is dominated by abrupt 25-50% reductions of these density gradients over 1996-1998. Concurrent changes in wind forcing, expressed in terms of density gradients, act in the same sense to reduce Slope Current transport. This indicates that coordinated regional changes of buoyancy and wind forcing acted together to reduce Slope Current transport during the 1990s. Particle trajectories further show that 10-40% of Slope Current water is destined for the northern North Sea within 6 months of passing to the west of Scotland, with a clear decline in this Atlantic inflow over 1988-2007. The influence of variable Slope Current transport on the northern North Sea is also expressed in salinity variations. A proxy for Atlantic inflow may be found in sea level records. Variability of Slope Current transport is implicit in mean sea level differences between Lerwick (Shetland) and Torshavn (Faeroes), in both tide gauge records and a longer model hindcast spanning 1958-2013. Potential impacts of this variability on North Sea biogeochemistry and ecosystems, via associated changes in temperature and seasonal stratification, are discussed.

What Causes the North Sea Level to Rise Faster over the Last Decade ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karpytchev, Mikhail; Letetrel, Camille

2013-04-01

We combined tide gauge records (PSMSL) and satellite altimetry data (TOPEX/POSEIDON-JASON 1-2) to reconstruct the mean level of the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea Shelf (NS-NSS) over 1950-2012. The reconstructed NS-NSS mean sea level fluctuations reveal a pronounced interannual variability and a strong sea level acceleration since the mid-1990's. In order to understand the causes of this acceleration, the NS-NSS mean sea level was cross-correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation indices. While the interannual variability of the mean sea level correlates well with the NAO/AO indices, the observed acceleration in the NS-NSS mean level is not linked linearly to the NAO/AO fluctuations. On the other hand, the Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) analysis of steric sea level variations in the eastern North Atlantic gives a dominant EOF pattern (55% of variance explained) that varies on a decadal scale very closely to the NS-NSS mean level flcutuations. Also, the amplification in the temporal amplitude of the dominant steric sea level EOF corresponds to the acceleration observed in the NS-NSS mean sea level signal. This suggests that decadal variations in the mean level of the North Sea - the Norwegian Sea Shelf reflect changes in the Subpolar Front currents (Rossby, 1996).

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modesmore » and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this article, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.« less

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

DOE PAGES

Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef; ...

2016-10-04

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modesmore » and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this article, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.« less

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef; Hu, Aixue; Hamlington, Benjamin; Kenigson, Jessica; Palanisamy, Hindumathi; Thompson, Philip

2017-01-01

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth's climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.

Simulated response to pumping stress in the Sparta aquifer of southeastern Arkansas and north-central Louisiana, 1998-2027

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hays, Phillip D.; Lovelace, John K.; Reed, Thomas B.

1998-01-01

The Sparta aquifer in southeastern Arkansas and north-central Louisiana is a major water resource for municipal, industrial, and agricultural uses. In recent years, the demand for water in some areas has resulted in withdrawals from the Sparta that significantly exceed recharge to the aquifer. Considerable drawdown has occurred in the potentiometric surface, and water users and managers alike have begun to question the ability of the aquifer to supply water for the long term. Large cones of depression are centered beneath the Grand Prairie area and the cities of Pine Bluff and El Dorado in Arkansas, and Monroe in Louisiana. Water levels in the aquifer have declined at rates greater than 1 foot per year for more than a decade in much of southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana and are now below the top of the formation in parts of Union and Columbia Counties, Arkansas, and in several areas of Louisiana. Problems related to over draft in the Sparta could result in increased drilling and pumping costs, loss of yield, salt-water intrusion, and decrease in water quality in areas of large drawdown. The effects of current ground-water withdrawals and potential future withdrawals on water availability are major concerns of water managers and users as well as the general public in the two States. The Sparta model-a regional scale, digital ground-water flow model-was first calibrated in the mid-1980's. The model was updated and reverified using 1995-97 data. Visual inspection of the observed (1996-97) and simulated potentiometric surfaces, statistical analysis of the error for the original calibration and current reverification, and comparison of observed versus simulated hydro graphs indicates that the model is simulating conditions in the aquifer within acceptable error, and the quality of current (1998) model results is similar to the original model calibration results. When stressed with current withdrawal volumes and distributions, the model is able to simulate currently observed heads effectively as heads were simulated in the original calibration period. Five pumping scenarios were simulated over a 30-year period based on (1) current pumping rates, (2) current rates of change in pumping, (3) decreased pumping in selected areas, (4) increased pumping in selected areas, and (5) redistribution and increase of pumping in selected areas. Model results show that although continued pumping at current rates will result in relatively minor declines in water levels (scenario 1 above), continued pumping at currently observed rates of change will result in drastic declines across large areas of focused withdrawals (scenario 2). Under the first scenario-in which current pumping rates are input to the model for the 30-year simulation period-water levels in the middle of the cones of depression centered on El Dorado and Monroe decrease less than 10 feet. In the second scenario-in which the current rate of change in pumpage is applied to the model-substantial declines occur in the proximity of most major pumpage centers. During the 1998-2027 model period, predicted water levels decline from 307 feet below sea level to 438 feet below sea level near El Dorado, from 58 feet below sea level to 277 feet below sea level near Pine Bluff, but only by about 25 feet-from 202 feet below sea level to 225 feet below sea level near Monroe. In the third scenario-in which minimum predicted water use figures supplied by selected facilities in Arkansas and decreased pumping estimates for Louisiana are applied to the model-simulated water levels are substantially higher at cones of depression around the major pumping centers of Monroe and El Dorado as compared to initial (1997) values. During the 1998-2027 model period, predicted water levels near Monroe increase from 202 feet below sea level to 133 feet below sea level; water levels near El Dorado increase from 307 feet below sea level to 123 feet below sea level. For the fourth scenario-in which maxi mum pr

Sedimentary noise and sea levels linked to land-ocean water exchange and obliquity forcing.

PubMed

Li, Mingsong; Hinnov, Linda A; Huang, Chunju; Ogg, James G

2018-03-08

In ancient hothouses lacking ice sheets, the origins of large, million-year (myr)-scale sea-level oscillations remain a mystery, challenging current models of sea-level change. To address this mystery, we develop a sedimentary noise model for sea-level changes that simultaneously estimates geologic time and sea level from astronomically forced marginal marine stratigraphy. The noise model involves two complementary approaches: dynamic noise after orbital tuning (DYNOT) and lag-1 autocorrelation coefficient (ρ 1 ). Noise modeling of Lower Triassic marine slope stratigraphy in South China reveal evidence for global sea-level variations in the Early Triassic hothouse that are anti-phased with continental water storage variations in the Germanic Basin. This supports the hypothesis that long-period (1-2 myr) astronomically forced water mass exchange between land and ocean reservoirs is a missing link for reconciling geological records and models for sea-level change during non-glacial periods.

The role of the oceans in changes of the Earth's climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Schuckmann, K.

2016-12-01

Any changes to the Earth's climate system affect an imbalance of the Earth's energy budget due to natural or human made climate forcing. The current positive Earth's energy imbalance is mostly caused by human activity, and is driving global warming. Variations in the world's ocean heat storage and its associated volume changes are a key factor to gauge global warming, to assess changes in the Earth's energy budget and to estimate contributions to the global sea level budget. Present-day sea-level rise is one of the major symptoms of the current positive Earth Energy Imbalance. Sea level also responds to natural climate variability that is superimposing and altering the global warming signal. The most prominent signature in the global mean sea level interannual variability is caused by El Niño-Southern Oscillation. It has been also shown that sea level variability in other regions of the Indo-Pacific area significantly alters estimates of the rate of sea level rise, i.e. in the Indonesian archipelago. In summary, improving the accuracy of our estimates of global Earth's climate state and variability is critical for advancing the understanding and prediction of the evolution of our climate, and an overview on recent findings on the role of the global ocean in changes of the Earth's climate system with particular focus on sea level variability in the Indo-Pacific region will be given in this contribution.

Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage.

PubMed

Kopp, Robert E; Simons, Frederik J; Mitrovica, Jerry X; Maloof, Adam C; Oppenheimer, Michael

2009-12-17

With polar temperatures approximately 3-5 degrees C warmer than today, the last interglacial stage (approximately 125 kyr ago) serves as a partial analogue for 1-2 degrees C global warming scenarios. Geological records from several sites indicate that local sea levels during the last interglacial were higher than today, but because local sea levels differ from global sea level, accurately reconstructing past global sea level requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. Here we present an extensive compilation of local sea level indicators and a statistical approach for estimating global sea level, local sea levels, ice sheet volumes and their associated uncertainties. We find a 95% probability that global sea level peaked at least 6.6 m higher than today during the last interglacial; it is likely (67% probability) to have exceeded 8.0 m but is unlikely (33% probability) to have exceeded 9.4 m. When global sea level was close to its current level (>or=-10 m), the millennial average rate of global sea level rise is very likely to have exceeded 5.6 m kyr(-1) but is unlikely to have exceeded 9.2 m kyr(-1). Our analysis extends previous last interglacial sea level studies by integrating literature observations within a probabilistic framework that accounts for the physics of sea level change. The results highlight the long-term vulnerability of ice sheets to even relatively low levels of sustained global warming.

Quantifying the Bering Strait Oceanic Fluxes and their Impacts on Sea-Ice and Water Properties in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas and Western Arctic Ocean for 2013-2014

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

Right) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) MODIS/Aqua level 1 image from 26th August 2004 (courtesy of Ocean Color Data Processing Archive, NASA/Goddard...was extremely good. The ADCPs and lower level temperature and salinity sensors all returned complete records. All 3 moorings also carried upper... Pavlov , and M. Kulakov (1999), The Siberian Coastal Current: a wind- and buoyancy-forced Arctic coastal current, J. Geophys. Res., 104(C12), 29697

Tidal dynamics in a changing lagoon: Flooding or not flooding the marginal regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopes, Carina L.; Dias, João M.

2015-12-01

Coastal lagoons are low-lying systems under permanent changes motivated by natural and anthropogenic factors. Ria de Aveiro is such an example with its margins currently threatened by the advance of the lagoonal waters recorded during the last decades. This work aims to study the tidal modifications found between 1987 and 2012 in this lagoon, motivated by the main channels deepening which induce higher inland tidal levels. Additionally it aims to study the impact that protective walls designed to protect the margins against flooding may have in those modifications under sea level rise predictions. The hydrodynamic model ELCIRC previously calibrated for Ria de Aveiro was used and tidal asymmetry, tidal ellipses and residual currents were analyzed for different scenarios, considering the mean sea level rise predicted for 2100 and the implementation of probable flood protection walls. Results evidenced that lagoon dominance remained unchanged between 1987 and 2012, but distortion decreased/increased in the deeper/shallower channels. The same trend was found under mean sea level rise conditions. Tidal currents increased over this period inducing an amplification of the water properties exchange within the lagoon, which will be stronger under mean sea level rise conditions. The deviations between scenarios with or without flood protection walls can achieve 60% for the tidal distortion and residual currents and 20% for the tidal currents, highlighting that tidal properties are extremely sensitive to the lagoon geometry. In summary, the development of numerical modelling applications dedicated to study the influence of mean sea level rise on coastal low-lying systems subjected to human influence should include structural measures designed for flood defence in order to accurately predict changes in the local tidal properties.

Evidence of a Weakening Gulf Stream from In-situ Expendable Bathythermograph Data, 1996-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roupe, L.; Baringer, M. O.

2014-12-01

A weakening of the Gulf Stream, the upper branch of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation system, has been hypothesized to accelerate sea level rise on the east coast of the United States, caused by changes in the Gulf Stream strength and, hence, sea level difference across the current. It still remains unclear if the Gulf Stream has in fact weakened or remains stable, along with the potential role of natural long-term variability. Tide gauges along the east coast show an accelerated sea level rise from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod that is 3-4 times higher than global sea level rise. Satellite altimetry shows a weakening gradient in Gulf Stream sea surface height that is highly correlated (r=-0.85) with east coast sea level rise, however, direct velocity measurements showed no significant decrease in Gulf Stream strength over a similar time period. We introduce another in-situ dataset to examine the issues between these conflicting results. Expendable bathythermographs (XBTs) measure temperature at depth directly, and then depth and salinity can be inferred, along with geostrophic velocity and transport. XBT data has been used to measure transport in various current systems, however, the Gulf Stream transport has not been analyzed using the newest high-density XBT data made available since 1996. The trend in sea level difference is determined to be 3.3 +/- 3.2 mm/yr, resulting in an overall decrease of 5.2 cm in sea level from 1996-2013. This result agrees with satellite altimetry results that show a significant decrease in recent years. This data also shows a changing Gulf Stream core position, based on the 15°C isotherm at 200 m, of 0.03°N/yr that is negatively correlated with surface transport (r=-0.25). Issues remain in defining the core and width of the Gulf Stream and with eliminating the possibility of natural variability in the current system.

Pleistocene reduction of polar ice caps: Evidence from Cariaco Basin marine sediments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poore, R.Z.; Dowsett, H.J.

2001-01-01

Sea level is projected to rise between 13 and 94 cm over the next 100 yr due to continued climate warming. The sea-level projections assume that polar ice sheets will remain stable or even increase on time scales of centuries, but controversial geologic evidence suggests that current polar ice sheets have been eliminated or greatly reduced during previous Pleistocene interglacials indicating that modern polar ice sheets have become unstable within the natural range of interglacial climates. Sea level may have been more than 20 m higher than today during a presumably very warm interglacial about 400 ka during marine isotope stage 11. Because of the implications for future sea level rise, additional study of the conflicting evidence for warmer conditions and higher sea level during marine isotope stage 11 is needed. Here we present microfossil and isotopic data from marine sediments of the Cariaco Basin supporting the interpretation that global sea level was 10-20 m higher than today during marine isotope stage 11. The increased sea level requires reduction in modern polar ice sheets and is consistent with the interpretation that the West Antarctic ice sheet and the Greenland ice sheet were absent or greatly reduced during marine isotope stage 11. Our results show a warm marine isotope stage 11 interglacial climate with sea level as high as or above modern sea level that lasted for 25 to 30 k.y. Variations in Earth's orbit around the sun (Milankovitch cycles) are considered to be a primary external force driving glacial-interglacial cycles. Current and marine isotope stage 11 Milankovitch forcing are very similar, suggesting that the present interglacial (Holocene) that began ca. 10 ka will continue for another 15 to 20 k.y. Therefore any anthropogenic climate warming will accelerate the natural process toward reduction in polar ice sheets. The potential for increased rates of sea level rise related to polar ice sheet decay should be considered as a potential natural hazard on centennial time scales.

Revisiting global mean sea level budget closure : Preliminary results from an integrative study within ESA's Climate Change Initiative -Sea level Budget Closure-Climate Change Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palanisamy, H.; Cazenave, A. A.

2017-12-01

The global mean sea level budget is revisited over two time periods: the entire altimetry era, 1993-2015 and the Argo/GRACE era, 2003-2015 using the version '0' of sea level components estimated by the SLBC-CCI teams. The SLBC-CCI is an European Space Agency's project on sea level budget closure using CCI products. Over the entire altimetry era, the sea level budget was performed as the sum of steric and mass components that include contributions from total land water storage, glaciers, ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica) and total water vapor content. Over the Argo/GRACE era, it was performed as the sum of steric and GRACE based ocean mass. Preliminary budget analysis performed over the altimetry era (1993-2015) results in a trend value of 2.83 mm/yr. On comparison with the observed altimetry-based global mean sea level trend over the same period (3.03 ± 0.5 mm/yr), we obtain a residual of 0.2 mm/yr. In spite of a residual of 0.2 mm/yr, the sea level budget result obtained over the altimetry era is very promising as this has been performed using the version '0' of the sea level components. Furthermore, uncertainties are not yet included in this study as uncertainty estimation for each sea level component is currently underway. Over the Argo/GRACE era (2003-2015), the trend estimated from the sum of steric and GRACE ocean mass amounts to 2.63 mm/yr while that observed by satellite altimetry is 3.37 mm/yr, thereby leaving a residual of 0.7 mm/yr. Here an ensemble GRACE ocean mass data (mean of various available GRACE ocean mass data) was used for the estimation. Using individual GRACE data results in a residual range of 0.5 mm/yr -1.1 mm/yr. Investigations are under way to determine the cause of the vast difference between the observed sea level and the sea level obtained from steric and GRACE ocean mass. One main suspect is the impact of GRACE data gaps on sea level budget analysis due to lack of GRACE data over several months since 2011. The current action plan of the project is to work on an accurate closure of the sea level budget using both the above performed methodologies. We also intend to provide a standardized uncertainty estimation and to correctly identify the causes leading to sea level budget non-closure if that is the case.

Observing large-scale temporal variability of ocean currents by satellite altimetry - With application to the Antarctic circumpolar current

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, L.-L.; Chelton, D. B.

1985-01-01

A new method is developed for studying large-scale temporal variability of ocean currents from satellite altimetric sea level measurements at intersections (crossovers) of ascending and descending orbit ground tracks. Using this method, sea level time series can be constructed from crossover sea level differences in small sample areas where altimetric crossovers are clustered. The method is applied to Seasat altimeter data to study the temporal evolution of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) over the 3-month Seasat mission (July-October 1978). The results reveal a generally eastward acceleration of the ACC around the Southern Ocean with meridional disturbances which appear to be associated with bottom topographic features. This is the first direct observational evidence for large-scale coherence in the temporal variability of the ACC. It demonstrates the great potential of satellite altimetry for synoptic observation of temporal variability of the world ocean circulation.

Seasonal Ice Zone Reconnaissance Surveys Coordination

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-30

sea surface temperature (SST), sea level atmospheric pressure ( SLP ), and velocity (Steele), and dropsonde measurements of atmospheric properties...aircraft), cloud top/base heights UpTempO buoys for understanding and prediction…. Steele UpTempO buoy drops for SLP , SST, SSS, & surface velocity...reflectance, skin temperature, visible imagery AXCTD= Air Expendable CTD, AXCP= Air Expendable Current Profiler, SLP = Sea Level atmospheric

Effects of sea-level rise and pumpage elimination on saltwater intrusion in the Hilton Head Island area, South Carolina, 2004-2104

USGS Publications Warehouse

Payne, Dorothy F.

2010-01-01

Saltwater intrusion of the Upper Floridan aquifer has been observed in the Hilton Head area, South Carolina since the late 1970s and currently affects freshwater supply. Rising sea level in the Hilton Head Island area may contribute to the occurrence of and affect the rate of saltwater intrusion into the Upper Floridan aquifer by increasing the hydraulic gradient and by inundating an increasing area with saltwater, which may then migrate downward into geologic units that presently contain freshwater. Rising sea level may offset any beneficial results from reductions in groundwater pumpage, and thus needs to be considered in groundwater-management decisions. A variable-density groundwater flow and transport model was modified from a previously existing model to simulate the effects of sea-level rise in the Hilton Head Island area. Specifically, the model was used to (1) simulate trends of saltwater intrusion from predevelopment to the present day (1885-2004) and evaluate the conceptual model, (2) project these trends from the present day into the future based on different potential rates of sea-level change, and (3) evaluate the relative influences of pumpage and sea-level rise on saltwater intrusion. Four scenarios were simulated for 2004-2104: (1) continuation of the estimated sea-level rise rate over the last century, (2) a doubling of the sea-level rise, (3) a cessation of sea-level rise, and (4) continuation of the rate over the last century coupled with an elimination of all pumpage. Results show that, if present-day (year 2004) pumping conditions are maintained, the extent of saltwater in the Upper Floridan aquifer will increase, whether or not sea level continues to rise. Furthermore, if all pumpage is eliminated and sea level continues to rise, the simulated saltwater extent in the Upper Floridan aquifer is reduced. These results indicate that pumpage is a strong driving force for simulated saltwater intrusion, more so than sea-level rise at current rates. However, results must be considered in light of limitations in the model, including, but not limited to uncertainty in field data, the conceptual model, the physical properties and representation of the hydrogeologic framework, and boundary and initial conditions, as well as uncertainty in future conditions, such as the rate of sea-level rise.

Temporal response of hydraulic head, temperature, and chloride concentrations to sea-level changes, Floridan aquifer system, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, J. D.; Vacher, H. L.; Sanford, Ward E.

2009-06-01

Three-dimensional density-dependent flow and transport modeling of the Floridan aquifer system, USA shows that current chloride concentrations are not in equilibrium with current sea level and, second, that the geometric configuration of the aquifer has a significant effect on system responses. The modeling shows that hydraulic head equilibrates first, followed by temperatures, and then by chloride concentrations. The model was constructed using a modified version of SUTRA capable of simulating multi-species heat and solute transport, and was compared to pre-development conditions using hydraulic heads, chloride concentrations, and temperatures from 315 observation wells. Three hypothetical, sinusoidal sea-level changes occurring over 100,000 years were used to evaluate how the simulated aquifer responds to sea-level changes. Model results show that hydraulic head responses lag behind sea-level changes only where the Miocene Hawthorn confining unit is thick and represents a significant restriction to flow. Temperatures equilibrate quickly except where the Hawthorn confining unit is thick and the duration of the sea-level event is long (exceeding 30,000 years). Response times for chloride concentrations to equilibrate are shortest near the coastline and where the aquifer is unconfined; in contrast, chloride concentrations do not change significantly over the 100,000-year simulation period where the Hawthorn confining unit is thick.

Impacts of climate-change-driven sea level rise on intertidal rocky reef habitats will be variable and site specific.

PubMed

Thorner, Jaqueline; Kumar, Lalit; Smith, Stephen D A

2014-01-01

Intertidal rocky reefs are complex and rich ecosystems that are vulnerable to even the smallest fluctuations in sea level. We modelled habitat loss associated with sea level rise for intertidal rocky reefs using GIS, high-resolution digital imagery, and LIDAR technology at fine-scale resolution (0.1 m per pixel). We used projected sea levels of +0.3 m, +0.5 m and +1.0 m above current Mean Low Tide Level (0.4 m). Habitat loss and changes were analysed for each scenario for five headlands in the Solitary Islands Marine Park (SIMP), Australia. The results indicate that changes to habitat extent will be variable across different shores and will not necessarily result in net loss of area for some habitats. In addition, habitat modification will not follow a regular pattern over the projected sea levels. Two of the headlands included in the study currently have the maximum level of protection within the SIMP. However, these headlands are likely to lose much of the habitat known to support biodiverse assemblages and may not continue to be suitable sanctuaries into the future. The fine-scale approach taken in this study thus provides a protocol not only for modelling habitat modification but also for future proofing conservation measures under a scenario of changing sea levels.

The contribution to future flood risk in the Severn Estuary from extreme sea level rise due to ice sheet mass loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, N.; Bates, P. D.; Siddall, M.

2013-12-01

The rate at which sea levels will rise in the coming century is of great interest to decision makers tasked with developing mitigation policies to cope with the risk of coastal inundation. Accurate estimates of future sea levels are vital in the provision of effective policy. Recent reports from UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) suggest that mean sea levels in the UK may rise by as much as 80 cm by 2100; however, a great deal of uncertainty surrounds model predictions, particularly the contribution from ice sheets responding to climatic warming. For this reason, the application of semi-empirical modelling approaches for sea level rise predictions has increased of late, the results from which suggest that the rate of sea level rise may be greater than previously thought, exceeding 1 m by 2100. Furthermore, studies in the Red Sea indicate that rapid sea level rise beyond 1m per century has occurred in the past. In light of such research, the latest UKCIP assessment has included a H++ scenario for sea level rise in the UK of up to 1.9 m which is defined as improbable but, crucially, physically plausible. The significance of such low-probability sea level rise scenarios upon the estimation of future flood risk is assessed using the Somerset levels (UK) as a case study. A simple asymmetric probability distribution is constructed to include sea level rise scenarios of up to 1.9 m by 2100 which are added to a current 1:200 year event water level to force a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of coastal inundation. From the resulting ensemble predictions an estimation of risk by 2100 is established. The results indicate that although the likelihood of extreme sea level rise due to rapid ice sheet mass loss is low, the resulting hazard can be large, resulting in a significant (27%) increase to the projected annual risk. Furthermore, current defence construction guidelines for the coming century in the UK are expected to account for 95% of the sea level rise distribution presented in this research, while the larger, low probability scenarios beyond this level are estimated to contribute a residual annual risk of approximately £0.45 million. These findings clearly demonstrate that uncertainty in future sea level rise is a vital component of coastal flood risk, and therefore, needs to be accounted for by decision makers when considering mitigation policies related to coastal flooding.

How will coastal sea level respond to changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings by 2100?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jevrejeva, S.; Moore, J.; Grinsted, A.

2010-12-01

Sea level rise is perhaps the most damaging repercussion of global warming, as 150 million people live less than one meter above current high tides .Using an inverse statistical model we examine potential response in coastal sea level to the changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings by 2100. With six IPCC radiative forcing scenarios we estimate sea level rise of 0.6-1.6 m, with confidence limits of 0.59 m and 1.8 m. Projected impacts of solar and volcanic radiative forcings account only for, at maximum, 5% of total sea level rise, with anthropogenic greenhouse gasses being the dominant forcing. As alternatives to the IPCC projections, even the most intense century of volcanic forcing from the past 1000 years would result in 10-15 cm potential reduction of sea level rise. Stratospheric injections of SO2 equivalent to a Pinatubo eruption every 4 years would effectively just delay sea level rise by 12 -20 years.

Effects of wave-induced forcing on a circulation model of the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staneva, Joanna; Alari, Victor; Breivik, Øyvind; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Mogensen, Kristian

2017-04-01

The effect of wind waves on water level and currents during two storms in the North Sea is investigated using a high-resolution NEMO model forced with fluxes and fields from a high-resolution wave model. The additional terms accounting for wave-current interaction that are considered in this study are the Stokes-Coriolis force and the sea-state dependent energy and momentum fluxes. The individual and collective role of these processes is quantified and the results are compared with a control run without wave effects as well as against current and water level measurements from coastal stations. We find a better agreement with observations when the circulation model is forced by sea-state dependent fluxes, especially in extreme events. The two extreme events, the storm Christian (25-27 October 2013), and about a month later, the storm Xaver (5-7 December 2013), induce different wave and surge conditions over the North Sea. Including the wave effects in the circulation model for the storm Xaver raises the modelled surge by more than 40 cm compared with the control run in the German Bight area. For the storm Christian, a difference of 20-30 cm in the surge level between the wave-forced and the stand-alone ocean model is found over the whole southern part of the North Sea. Moreover, the modelled vertical velocity profile fits the observations very well when the wave forcing is accounted for. The contribution of wave-induced forcing has been quantified indicating that this represents an important mechanism for improving water level and current predictions.

Effects of wave-induced forcing on a circulation model of the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staneva, Joanna; Alari, Victor; Breivik, Øyvind; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Mogensen, Kristian

2017-01-01

The effect of wind waves on water level and currents during two storms in the North Sea is investigated using a high-resolution Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) model forced with fluxes and fields from a high-resolution wave model. The additional terms accounting for wave-current interaction that are considered in this study are the Stokes-Coriolis force, the sea-state-dependent energy and momentum fluxes. The individual and collective role of these processes is quantified and the results are compared with a control run without wave effects as well as against current and water-level measurements from coastal stations. We find a better agreement with observations when the circulation model is forced by sea-state-dependent fluxes, especially in extreme events. The two extreme events, the storm Christian (25-27 October 2013), and about a month later, the storm Xaver (5-7 December 2013), induce different wave and surge conditions over the North Sea. Including the wave effects in the circulation model for the storm Xaver raises the modelled surge by more than 40 cm compared with the control run in the German Bight area. For the storm Christian, a difference of 20-30 cm in the surge level between the wave-forced and the stand-alone ocean model is found over the whole southern part of the North Sea. Moreover, the modelled vertical velocity profile fits the observations very well when the wave forcing is accounted for. The contribution of wave-induced forcing has been quantified indicating that this represents an important mechanism for improving water-level and current predictions.

Low-frequency western Pacific Ocean sea level and circulation changes due to the connectivity of the Philippine Archipelago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Wei; Qiu, Bo; Du, Yan

2013-12-01

Interannual-to-decadal sea level and circulation changes associated with the oceanic connectivity around the Philippine Archipelago are studied using satellite altimeter sea surface height (SSH) data and a reduced gravity ocean model. SSHs in the tropical North Pacific, the Sulu Sea and the eastern South China Sea (ESCS) display very similar low-frequency oscillations that are highly correlated with El Niño and Southern Oscillation. Model experiments reveal that these variations are mainly forced by the low-frequency winds over the North Pacific tropical gyre and affected little by the winds over the marginal seas and the North Pacific subtropical gyre. The wind-driven baroclinic Rossby waves impinge on the eastern Philippine coast and excite coastal Kelvin waves, conveying the SSH signals through the Sibutu Passage-Mindoro Strait pathway into the Sulu Sea and the ESCS. Closures of the Luzon Strait, Karimata Strait, and ITF passages have little impacts on the low-frequency sea level changes in the Sulu Sea and the ESCS. The oceanic pathway west of the Philippine Archipelago modulates the western boundary current system in the tropical North Pacific. Opening of this pathway weakens the time-varying amplitudes of the North Equatorial Current bifurcation latitude and Kuroshio transport. Changes of the amplitudes can be explained by the conceptual framework of island rule that allows for baroclinic adjustment. Although it fails to capture the interannual changes in the strongly nonlinear Mindanao Current, the time-dependent island rule is nevertheless helpful in clarifying the role of the archipelago in regulating its multidecadal variations.

Dynamic and static equilibrium sea level effects of Greenland Ice Sheet melt: An assessment of partially-coupled idealized water hosing experiments (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, R. E.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Griffies, S. M.; Yin, J.; Hay, C. C.; Stouffer, R. J.

2010-12-01

Regional sea level can deviate from mean global sea level because of both dynamic sea level (DSL) effects, resulting from oceanic and atmospheric circulation and temperature and salinity distributions, and changes in the static equilibrium (SE) sea level configuration, produced by the gravitational, elastic, and rotational effects of mass redistribution. Both effects will contribute to future sea level change, but because they are studied by two different subdisciplines -- climate modeling and glacial rebound modeling -- projections that attempt to combine both have to date been scarce. To compare their magnitude, we simulated the effects of Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) melt by conducting idealized North Atlantic "water-hosing" experiments in a climate model unidirectionally coupled to a SE sea level model. At current rates of GIS melt, freshwater hosing experiments in fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) do not yield clear DSL trends but do generate DSL variability; comparing that variability to expected static equilibrium "fingerprints" suggests that at least about 40 years of observations are needed to detect the "fingerprints" of ice sheet melt at current Greenland melt rates of about 0.3 mm equivalent sea level (esl)/year. Accelerated melt rates of about 2--6 mm esl/y, as may occur later in the century, should be detectable above background DSL variability within less than a decade of their onset. At these higher melt rates, AOGCMs do yield clear DSL trends. In the GFDL CM 2.1 model, DSL trends are strongest in the western North Atlantic, while SE effects come to dominate in most of the ocean when melt exceeds about 20 cm esl.

A note on sea level variability at Clipperton Island from GEOSAT and in-situ observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maul, George A.; Hansen, Donald V.; Bravo, Nicolas J.

During the 1986-1989 Exact Repeat Mission (ERM) of GEOSAT, in-situ observations of sea level at Clipperton Island (10°N/109°W) and satellite-tracked free-drifting drogued buoys in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are concurrently available. A map of the standard deviations of GEOSAT sea surface heights (2.9 years) shows a variance maximum along ˜12°N from Central America, past Clipperton to ˜160°W. Sea floor pressure gauge observations from a shallow (10m depth) site on Clipperton Island and an ERM crossover point in deep water nearby show a correlation of r = 0.76 with a residual of ±6.7 cm RMS. Approximately 17% of the difference (GEOSAT minus sea level) is characterized by a 4 cm amplitude 0° phase annual harmonic, which is probably caused by unaccounted-for tropospheric water vapor affecting the altimeter and/or ERM orbit error removal. Wintertime anticyclonic mesoscale eddies advecting past Clipperton Island each year have GEOSAT sea surface height and in-situ sea level signals of more than 30 cm, some of which are documented by the satellite-tracked drifters. Meridional profiles of the annual harmonic of zonal geostrophic current from GEOSAT and from the drifters both show synchronous maxima in the North Equatorial Countercurrent and the North Equatorial Current. Other Clipperton sea level maxima seen during late spring of each year may involve anticyclonic vortices formed along Central America the previous winter.

Contemporary Arctic Sea Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cazenave, A. A.

2017-12-01

During recent decades, the Arctic region has warmed at a rate about twice the rest of the globe. Sea ice melting is increasing and the Greenland ice sheet is losing mass at an accelerated rate. Arctic warming, decrease in the sea ice cover and fresh water input to the Arctic ocean may eventually impact the Arctic sea level. In this presentation, we review our current knowledge of contemporary Arctic sea level changes. Until the beginning of the 1990s, Arctic sea level variations were essentially deduced from tide gauges located along the Russian and Norwegian coastlines. Since then, high inclination satellite altimetry missions have allowed measuring sea level over a large portion of the Arctic Ocean (up to 80 degree north). Measuring sea level in the Arctic by satellite altimetry is challenging because the presence of sea ice cover limits the full capacity of this technique. However adapted processing of raw altimetric measurements significantly increases the number of valid data, hence the data coverage, from which regional sea level variations can be extracted. Over the altimetry era, positive trend patterns are observed over the Beaufort Gyre and along the east coast of Greenland, while negative trends are reported along the Siberian shelf. On average over the Arctic region covered by satellite altimetry, the rate of sea level rise since 1992 is slightly less than the global mea sea level rate (of about 3 mm per year). On the other hand, the interannual variability is quite significant. Space gravimetry data from the GRACE mission and ocean reanalyses provide information on the mass and steric contributions to sea level, hence on the sea level budget. Budget studies show that regional sea level trends over the Beaufort Gyre and along the eastern coast of Greenland, are essentially due to salinity changes. However, in terms of regional average, the net steric component contributes little to the observed sea level trend. The sea level budget in the Arctic indicates a dominant mass contribution, especially in the Greenland, Norwegian, and Barents Seas sector.

Hydrodynamic measurements in Suisun Bay, California, 1992-93

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gartner, Jeffrey W.; Burau, Jon R.

1999-01-01

Sea level, velocity, temperature, and salinity (conductivity and temperature) data collected in Suisun Bay, California, from December 11, 1992, through May 31, 1993, by the U.S. Geological Survey are documented in this report. Sea-level data were collected at four locations and temperature and salinity data were collected at seven locations. Velocity data were collected at three locations using acoustic Doppler current profilers and at four other locations using point velocity meters. Sea-level and velocity data are presented in three forms (1) harmonic analysis results, (2) time-series plots (sea level, current speed, and current direction versus time), and (3) time-series plots of the low-pass filtered data. Temperature and salinity data are presented as plots of raw and low-pass filtered time series. The velocity and salinity data collected during this study document a period when the residual current patterns and salt field were significantly altered by large Delta outflow (three peaks in excess of 2,000 cubic meters per second). Residual current profiles were consistently seaward with magnitudes that fluctuated primarily in concert with Delta outflow and secondarily with the spring-neap tide cycle. The freshwater inputs advected salinity seaward of Suisun Bay for most of this study. Except for a 10-day period at the beginning of the study, dynamically significant salinities (>2) were seaward of Suisun Bay, which resulted in little or no gravitational circulation transport.

Seasonal variation of the water exchange through the Bohai Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z.

2016-02-01

Seasonal variations of the Lubei coastal current off the northern Shandong Peninsula and water exchange between the Bohai and Yellow seas were analyzed, based on current and salinity data measured mainly in 2006, 2007 and 2012. In winter and autumn, the Lubei coastal current flows eastward through the Bohai Strait before ultimately heading southward into the waters off Chengshantou in the east of the Shandong Peninsula. In spring and summer, the Lubei coastal current disappears. There are three kinds of patterns of water exchange between the Bohai and Yellow seas. The first is the "inflow in the north and outflow in the south of the Bohai Strait" in winter and autumn, which is regarded as the permanent pattern during the whole year from literature. The second is "outflow in the surface layer and inflow in the underlying layer" in summer, where the outflow is significantly greater than the inflow related with increased runoff and precipitation. The third is "inflow together in the southern and northern channels of the Bohai Strait" in spring. The low mean sea level and N-S sea-level incline formed in winter in the Bohai Sea lose their dynamic balance because of the reversal of the northeast monsoon in spring. This forces the water from the northern Yellow Sea into the Bohai Sea via the southern and northern channels of the Bohai Strait, which constitutes the largest net inflow of the four seasons.

North-Australian tropical seas circulation study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burrage, Derek; Coleman, R.; Bode, L.; Inoue, M.

1991-01-01

This investigation is intended to fully address the stated objective of the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission (National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 1986). Hence, we intend to use TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry data to study the large-scale circulation of the Coral Sea Basin and the Arafura Sea and the mass exchange between these and adjoining basins. We will obtain data from two such cruises in 1993 and 1994 and combine them with TOPEX/POSEIDON radar altimetry data to identify interannual and seasonal changes in: (1) the location of the major ocean currents and the South Equatorial Current bifurcation in the Coral Sea; (2) the source region of the South Tropical Counter Current (STCC); and (3) the water exchange between the Coral Sea and the adjoining seas. We will also estimate seasonal and interannual variations in the horizontal transport of mass and heat associated with near-surface geostrophic and wind-driven currents. In addition, the tidal components of the Coral Sea will be studied to provide a correction for altimetry subtidal sea level changes and to develop a regional numerical model for tidal forcing in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and Papua New Guinea Reef regions.

Atmospheric forcing on the seasonal variability of sea level at Cochin, southwest coast of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivas, K.; Dinesh Kumar, P. K.

2006-07-01

The seasonal cycles of some atmospheric parameters at Cochin (southwest coast of India) have been studied with a specific emphasis on the role played by them in forcing the seasonal sea level. Equatorward along-shore wind stress as well as equatorward volume transport by coastal currents along the Indian peninsula could play an important role in the sea level low during the premonsoon and southwest monsoon seasons. During postmonsoon season, along-shore wind stress plays no major role in the high sea level whereas this could be due to the poleward volume transport by the coastal along-shore currents. Atmospheric pressure and river discharge do not seem to influence much the sea level during the southwest monsoon period, even though the river discharge during that period is considerable. The sea level was minimal during the southwest monsoon season, when the river discharge was at its annual maximum. The difference between the seasonal march of observed and pressure corrected sea level (CSL) was not significant for the study region. Harmonic analysis of the climatological data on the various parameters revealed that air temperature is the only parameter with a dominance of the semi-annual over the annual cycle. Cross-shore wind stress indicated strong interannual variability whereas relative density showed strong seasonal variability. The climatological seasonal cycles of CSL at eight other tide gauge stations along the west coast of the Indian subcontinent are also examined, to assess the role of various forcings on the seasonal sea level cycle. The signatures of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon could be seen in some of the parameters (SST, air temperature, atmospheric pressure, along-shore wind stress, relative density and sea level). The signature of ENSO was particularly strong in the case of atmospheric pressure followed by relative density, the variance accounted by the relationship being 47% and 16%, respectively.

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar to capture spatial variability of local land-based subsidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bekaert, D. P.; Hamlington, B.; Buzzanga, B. A.; Jones, C. E.

2017-12-01

The rate of relative sea level rise results from a combination of land subsidence and rising seas associated with global warming on long timescales and exacerbated by shifts in ocean dynamics on shorter timescales. An understanding of the current-day magnitude of each component is needed to create accurate projections of future relative sea level rise upon which to base planning efforts. Current day land-based subsidence rates derived from GPS often lack the spatial resolution to capture the local spatial variability needed when assessing the impact of relative sea-level rise. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is an attractive technique that has the potential to provide a measurement every 20-30m when good signal coherence is maintained. In practice, coastal regions are challenging for InSAR due to variable vegetation cover and soil moisture, which can be in part mitigated by applying advanced time-series InSAR techniques. After applying time-series InSAR, derived rates need to be combined with GPS to tie relative subsidence rates into a geodetic reference frame. Given the need to make projections of relative sea-level rise it is particularly important to propagate all uncertainties during the different processing stages. Here we provide results from ALOS and Sentinel-1 over Hampton Roads area in the Chesapeake Bay region, which is experiencing one of the highest rates of relative sea level rise on the Atlantic coast of the United States. Although the current derived subsidence rates have large uncertainties, it is expected that this will improve with the decadal observations from Sentinel-1.

Using time lapse cameras to monitor shoreline changes due to sea level rise.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-01-01

Shoreline habitats and infrastructure are currently being affected by sea level rise (SLR) and as : global temperatures continue to rise, will continue to get worse for millennia. Governments : and individuals decisions to adapt to SLR could ha...

Created mangrove wetlands store belowground carbon and surface elevation change enables them to adjust to sea-level rise.

PubMed

Krauss, Ken W; Cormier, Nicole; Osland, Michael J; Kirwan, Matthew L; Stagg, Camille L; Nestlerode, Janet A; Russell, Marc J; From, Andrew S; Spivak, Amanda C; Dantin, Darrin D; Harvey, James E; Almario, Alejandro E

2017-04-21

Mangrove wetlands provide ecosystem services for millions of people, most prominently by providing storm protection, food and fodder. Mangrove wetlands are also valuable ecosystems for promoting carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, loss of mangrove wetlands and these ecosystem services are a global concern, prompting the restoration and creation of mangrove wetlands as a potential solution. Here, we investigate soil surface elevation change, and its components, in created mangrove wetlands over a 25 year developmental gradient. All created mangrove wetlands were exceeding current relative sea-level rise rates (2.6 mm yr -1 ), with surface elevation change of 4.2-11.0 mm yr -1 compared with 1.5-7.2 mm yr -1 for nearby reference mangroves. While mangrove wetlands store C persistently in roots/soils, storage capacity is most valuable if maintained with future sea-level rise. Through empirical modeling, we discovered that properly designed creation projects may not only yield enhanced C storage, but also can facilitate wetland persistence perennially under current rates of sea-level rise and, for most sites, for over a century with projected medium accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 6.0). Only the fastest projected accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 8.5) led to widespread submergence and potential loss of stored C for created mangrove wetlands before 2100.

Temporal response of hydraulic head, temperature, and chloride concentrations to sea-level changes, Floridan aquifer system, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hughes, J.D.; Vacher, H. Leonard; Sanford, W.E.

2009-01-01

Three-dimensional density-dependent flow and transport modeling of the Floridan aquifer system, USA shows that current chloride concentrations are not in equilibrium with current sea level and, second, that the geometric configuration of the aquifer has a significant effect on system responses. The modeling shows that hydraulic head equilibrates first, followed by temperatures, and then by chloride concentrations. The model was constructed using a modified version of SUTRA capable of simulating multi-species heat and solute transport, and was compared to pre-development conditions using hydraulic heads, chloride concentrations, and temperatures from 315 observation wells. Three hypothetical, sinusoidal sea-level changes occurring over 100,000 years were used to evaluate how the simulated aquifer responds to sea-level changes. Model results show that hydraulic head responses lag behind sea-level changes only where the Miocene Hawthorn confining unit is thick and represents a significant restriction to flow. Temperatures equilibrate quickly except where the Hawthorn confining unit is thick and the duration of the sea-level event is long (exceeding 30,000 years). Response times for chloride concentrations to equilibrate are shortest near the coastline and where the aquifer is unconfined; in contrast, chloride concentrations do not change significantly over the 100,000-year simulation period where the Hawthorn confining unit is thick. ?? US Government 2008.

Created mangrove wetlands store belowground carbon and surface elevation change enables them to adjust to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krauss, Ken W.; Cormier, Nicole; Osland, Michael J.; Kirwan, Matthew L.; Stagg, Camille L.; Nestlerode, Janet A.; Russell, Marc J.; From, Andrew; Spivak, Amanda C.; Dantin, Darrin D.; Harvey, James E.; Almario, Alejandro E.

2017-01-01

Mangrove wetlands provide ecosystem services for millions of people, most prominently by providing storm protection, food and fodder. Mangrove wetlands are also valuable ecosystems for promoting carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, loss of mangrove wetlands and these ecosystem services are a global concern, prompting the restoration and creation of mangrove wetlands as a potential solution. Here, we investigate soil surface elevation change, and its components, in created mangrove wetlands over a 25 year developmental gradient. All created mangrove wetlands were exceeding current relative sea-level rise rates (2.6 mm yr−1), with surface elevation change of 4.2–11.0 mm yr−1 compared with 1.5–7.2 mm yr−1 for nearby reference mangroves. While mangrove wetlands store C persistently in roots/soils, storage capacity is most valuable if maintained with future sea-level rise. Through empirical modeling, we discovered that properly designed creation projects may not only yield enhanced C storage, but also can facilitate wetland persistence perennially under current rates of sea-level rise and, for most sites, for over a century with projected medium accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 6.0). Only the fastest projected accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 8.5) led to widespread submergence and potential loss of stored C for created mangrove wetlands before 2100.

Assessing water quality of the Chesapeake Bay by the impact of sea level rise and warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, P.; Linker, L.; Wang, H.; Bhatt, G.; Yactayo, G.; Hinson, K.; Tian, R.

2017-08-01

The influence of sea level rise and warming on circulation and water quality of the Chesapeake Bay under projected climate conditions in 2050 were estimated by computer simulation. Four estuarine circulation scenarios in the estuary were run using the same watershed load in 1991-2000 period. They are, 1) the Base Scenario, which represents the current climate condition, 2) a Sea Level Rise Scenario, 3) a Warming Scenario, and 4) a combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario. With a 1.6-1.9°C increase in monthly air temperatures in the Warming Scenario, water temperature in the Bay is estimated to increase by 0.8-1°C. Summer average anoxic volume is estimated to increase 1.4 percent compared to the Base Scenario, because of an increase in algal blooms in the spring and summer, promotion of oxygen consumptive processes, and an increase of stratification. However, a 0.5-meter Sea Level Rise Scenario results in a 12 percent reduction of anoxic volume. This is mainly due to increased estuarine circulation that promotes oxygen-rich sea water intrusion in lower layers. The combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario results in a 10.8 percent reduction of anoxic volume. Global warming increases precipitation and consequently increases nutrient loads from the watershed by approximately 5-7 percent. A scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and current estuarine circulation patterns yielded a 19 percent increase in summer anoxic volume, while a scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and modified estuarine circulation patterns by the aforementioned sea level rise and warming yielded a 6 percent increase in summer anoxic volume. Impacts on phytoplankton, sediments, and water clarity were also analysed.

The Caspian Sea water dynamics based on satellite imagery and altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostianoy, Andrey G.; Lebedev, Sergey

The Caspian Sea water dynamics is poorly known due to a lack of special hydrographic measurements. The known schemes of general circulation of the sea proposed by N.M. Knipovich in 1914-1915 and 1921, A.I. Mikhalevskiy (1931), G.N. Zaitsev (1935) and V.N. Zenin (1942) represent the basin-scale cyclonic gyres in the Middle and Southern Caspian, and no clear scheme for the shallow Northern Caspian. Later numerical models could move forward from these simple schemes of circulation to the more detailed seasonal or climatic schemes of currents, but different approaches and models give different results which significantly differ from each other (Trukhchev et al., 1995; Ibrayev et al., 2003, 2010; Popov, 2004, 2009; Knysh et al., 2008). Satellite monitoring of the Caspian Sea, we perform since 2000, is a useful tool for investigation of water dynamics in the Caspian Sea. To determine mesoscale water structure and dynamics, we used different kind of physical (SST and ice), chemical (suspended matter and water turbidity) and biological (chlorophyll concentration and algal bloom) tracers on satellite imagery. Satellite altimetry (sea level anomalies in combination with the mean dynamic level derived from numerical modeling) provides fields of currents in the whole Caspian Sea on a regular basis (every 10 days). Seasonal fields of currents derived from satellite altimetry also differ from those obtained in numerical models. Finally, we show the results of the first drifter experiment performed in the Caspian Sea in 2006-2008 in the framework of the MACE Project. Special attention is paid to the seasonal upwelling along the eastern coast of the sea, coastal currents, and a giant intrusion of warm water from the Southern to the Middle Caspian Sea.

Improving NOAA's NWLON Through Enhanced Data Inputs from NASA's Ocean Surface Topography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guest, DeNeice C.

2010-01-01

This report assesses the benefit of incorporating NASA's OSTM (Ocean Surface Topography Mission) altimeter data (C- and Ku-band) into NOAA's (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) NWLON (National Water Level Observation Network) DSS (Decision Support System). This data will enhance the NWLON DSS by providing additional inforrnation because not all stations collect all meteorological parameters (sea-surface height, ocean tides, wave height, and wind speed over waves). OSTM will also provide data where NWLON stations are not present. OSTM will provide data on seasurface heights for determining sea-level rise and ocean circulation. Researchers and operational users currently use satellite altimeter data products with the GSFCOO NASA data model to obtain sea-surface height and ocean circulation inforrnation. Accurate and tirnely inforrnation concerning sea-level height, tide, and ocean currents is needed to irnprove coastal tidal predictions, tsunarni and storm surge warnings, and wetland restoration.

Organic Matter Contents and Paleoproductivity Variation Within Late Pleistocene Japan Sea/East Sea Sediments: Results from IODP Expedition 346

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, H. D.; Anderson, W. T., Jr.

2017-12-01

Inorganic and organic matter concentrations as well as the stable isotopes of nitrogen and organic carbon are presented for continuous sedimentary sequences collected during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 346 in the Japan Sea/East Sea in 2013. During major glacioeustatic sea level changes, the paleoceanographic conditions within the Japan Sea/East Sea widely vary due to the shallow, narrow straights connecting the sea to surrounding waters limiting an influx of oceanic currents. During glacial sea level low-stands the sea can be nearly isolated, creating a highly-stratified water column and hypoxic to anoxic bottom water conditions. Meanwhile during sea level high-stands, the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC) flows into the sea bringing warmer, nutrient-rich inputs, leading to vertical mixing and oxic conditions. This study aims to better understand the role of orbital cycling within the organic matter and stable isotope contents of these Late Pleistocene sediments. A total of 192 samples were analyzed each for %CaCO3, %TOC, δ13C, %N, and δ15N from two Expedition 346 sampling sites (U1426 and U1427) during the last 430,000 years and statistical analyses were completed using wavelet and time series analyses. Carbonate concentration ranges from 0-44.3%, total organic carbon 0.2 to 6.4%, δ13C -25.8 to -19.6‰, %N 0.04 to 0.4%, and δ15N 3.8 to 13.1‰. These results are well correlated with b* color values of the sediment and generally show increased productivity during interglacial periods, likely through increased vertical mixing and deepwater ventilation, when compared to glacial periods within the Japan Sea/East Sea when the sea may be partially isolated.

Sea level history in Beringia during the past 250,000 years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hopkins, D.M.

1973-01-01

This paper attempts to relate current knowledge of sea-level history in Beringia to the Broecker-van Donk "Termination" concept of climatic and sea-level history. The Einahnuhtan transgression is thought to represent Termination III, which according to Broecker and van Donk, took place about 225,000 y.a. The Kotzebuan transgression is thought to represent a positive fluctuation that modulated the generally falling sea level during the ensuing 100,000 yr. Sea level probably fell to about -135 m in the Bering Sea area during the maximum phase of the penultimate glaciation. The two Pelukian shorelines probably represent Termination II (about 125,000 yr BP in the Broecker-van Donk chronology) and one of the two positive fluctuations that modulated the generally falling sea level of early Wisconsinan time, about 105,000 and 80,000 y.a. according to Broecker and van Donk. Another positive modulation brought sea level to at least -20 m, about 30,000 y.a. Sea level evidently fell to between -90 and -100 m during the late Wisconsinan regression, but a substantial part of the outer Bering shelf remained submerged. Submerged shoreline features at -38m, -30 m, -24 to -20 m, and -12 to -10 m represent stillstands or slight regressions that modulated Termination I, the late Wisconsinan, and early Holocene recovery of sea level. ?? 1973.

Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, Thomas W.; Day, Richard H.; Michot, Thomas C.

2010-01-01

Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

Generation of periodic intrusions at Suruga Bay when the Kuroshio follows a large meandering path

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katsumata, Takaaki

2016-07-01

We measured the vertical profiles of currents at the eastern mouth of the Suruga Bay using a moored acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP). Currents vertical profiles were found to be mostly barotropic in structure when intrusions occurred at the eastern mouth of the bay. Warm-water intrusions at the Suruga Bay and sea level elevations at the bay and at islands on the Izu Ridge located off the bay have the same period of 26 days. The temporal variation in the sea levels occurs in response to Kuroshio frontal waves, and the two phases are consistent. The sea level rise propagates from Hachijo Island to the Suruga Bay via Miyake Island and Kozu Island, i.e., from off the Suruga Bay to in or near the bay. The perturbation of the sea level along the Izu Ridge occurs as waves with a period of 26 days, a wavelength of 500 km, and a phase speed of 23 cm/sec. The propagated waves and those of the Kuroshio frontal waves have the same features. This means that the periodic inflows at the eastern mouth of the Suruga Bay are caused by the passage of Kuroshio frontal waves off the bay.

Black Sea outflow response to Holocene meltwater events.

PubMed

Herrle, Jens O; Bollmann, Jörg; Gebühr, Christina; Schulz, Hartmut; Sheward, Rosie M; Giesenberg, Annika

2018-03-06

During the Holocene, North American ice sheet collapse and rapid sea-level rise reconnected the Black Sea with the global ocean. Rapid meltwater releases into the North Atlantic and associated climate change arguably slowed the pace of Neolithisation across southeastern Europe, originally hypothesized as a catastrophic flooding that fueled culturally-widespread deluge myths. However, we currently lack an independent record linking the timing of meltwater events, sea-level rise and environmental change with the timing of Neolithisation in southeastern Europe. Here, we present a sea surface salinity record from the Northern Aegean Sea indicative of two meltwater events at ~8.4 and ~7.6 kiloyears that can be directly linked to rapid declines in the establishment of Neolithic sites in southeast Europe. The meltwater events point to an increased outflow of low salinity water from the Black Sea driven by rapid sea level rise >1.4 m following freshwater outbursts from Lake Agassiz and the final decay of the Laurentide ice sheet. Our results shed new light on the link between catastrophic sea-level rise and the Neolithisation of southeastern Europe, and present a historical example of how coastal populations could have been impacted by future rapid sea-level rise.

Climate change and Sea level rise: Potential impact on the coast of the Edremit Plain, NW Turkey.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curebal, Isa; Efe, Recep; Soykan, Abdullah; Sonmez, Suleyman

2015-04-01

Over the past century, most of the world's mountain glaciers and the ice sheets have lost mass due to global warming. When the temperature exceeds a particular level, glaciers and polar ice caps will continue to lose mass. Recent studies report that low-lying coastal areas will be seriously affected by sea level rise. Changes in the amount of natural and anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols had a warming effect on the global climate during last century. Thus, the pace of melting of ice sheets increased, and, accordingly, sea level began to rise faster. Rise in sea level between 1961 and 2003 was equal to 1.8 mm/year while it was 3.1 mm/year between 1993 and 2003. The total rise in the 20th century is estimated to be between 17 and 19 cm. The models based on the sea level change indicate that the average global temperature at the end of the 21st century will increase by 0.3°C - 6.4°C. Global sea level is projected to rise 8-25 cm by 2030, relative to 2000 levels, 18-48 cm by 2050, and 50-140 cm by 20110. The Edremit Plain lies between Mount Madra and the Kaz Mountains on the coast of Aegean Sea in NW Turkey. It is lowland with an area of 141 km2. The widest part of the plain is 16 km along the E - W direction. The N - S direction amounts to a width of 15 km. The plain is covered with alluvial deposits that settled in the Quaternary Period. The elevation ranges from 0 to 50 m a.s.l. in the plain. This study aims to determine how the low-lying coastal land areas of the Edremit Plain may be affected by possible changes in sea level. Elevation dataset is based on the digital elevation model (DEM) of Landsat ETM + satellite images. To that end, satellite images were used to draw the current coastline. Curves of 2.5, 5, and 10 m were drawn through the use of maps with a scale of 1/25.000. Later on, the areas of the fields between these points were calculated. Current estimates show that 2.5 m rise in sea level will cause sea water to cover an area of 8.6 km2 (%14.0), 5 m to 28.4 km2 (%21.2), and 10 m to 58.3 km2 (%41.2) on the coastal land. In such cases, a +2.5 m change will trigger the current coastline to regress by 1.3 km while a +5 m change will lead to 3.4 km, and a +10 m change will cause 5.2 km. As a result, residential, agricultural, and wetlands on the coastal land of the plain will be submerged by rising sea levels, leading to significant habitat loss and changes in the ecosystem. The creation of detailed elevation may reveal more clear effects of the changes in sea level. Key Words: Climate change, coastline, Edremit plain, global warming, sea level rise.

Solutions Network Formulation Report. Improving NOAA's Tides and Currents Through Enhanced Data Inputs from NASA's Ocean Surface Topography Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guest, DeNeice C.

2006-01-01

The Nation uses water-level data for a variety of practical purposes, including hydrography, nautical charting, maritime navigation, coastal engineering, and tsunami and storm surge warnings (NOAA, 2002; Digby et al., 1999). Long-term applications include marine boundary determinations, tidal predictions, sea-level trend monitoring, oceanographic research, and climate research. Accurate and timely information concerning sea-level height, tide, and ocean current is needed to understand their impact on coastal management, disaster management, and public health. Satellite altimeter data products are currently used by hundreds of researchers and operational users to monitor ocean circulation and to improve scientists understanding of the role of the oceans in climate and weather. The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) National Ocean Service has been monitoring sea-level variations for many years (NOAA, 2006). NOAA s Tides & Currents DST (decision support tool, managed by the Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, is the portal to a vast collection of oceanographic and meteorological data (historical and real-time), predictions, and nowcasts and forecasts. This report assesses the capacity of NASA s satellite altimeter data to meet societal decision support needs through incorporation into NOAA s Tides & Currents.

The role of ocean currents for carbonate platform stratigraphy (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betzler, C.; Lindhorst, S.; Luedmann, T.; Eberli, G. P.; Reijmer, J.; Huebscher, C. P.

2013-12-01

Breaks and turnovers in carbonate bank growth and development record fluctuations in sea-level and environmental changes. For the carbonate banks of the Bahamas, the Maldives, the Queensland, and the Marion Plateau, sea-level changes and synchronous oceanographic and atmospheric circulation events were recorded through compositional and architectural changes. Most of these major carbonate edifices contain drift deposits, indicating that oceanic currents were a major driver of carbonate-bank evolution. It is proposed that such currents have a larger imprint on the growth patterns and the stratigraphic packaging of carbonates than previously thought. In the Bahamas, slope facies of carbonate banks exposed to deep oceanic currents are not arranged into sediment-texture controlled and depth-dependant strike-continuous facies belts. Facies patterns are controlled by the interplay of shallow-water input, succeeding sediment sorting as well as redistribution and erosion processes. This complements the classical windward - leeward classification of carbonate platform slopes and accounts for the significant and potentially dominant process of alongslope sediment transport and dispersal. Deep oceanic currents also have the potential to steepen the carbonate bank slopes, through sediment winnowing at the distal slope, such as for example in the Maldives. This process can be enhanced as the bank grows and expands in size which may accelerate currents. Oceanic current onset or amplification, however, may also account for slope steepening as an externally, i.e. climate-driven agent, thus forcing the banks into an aggradation mode of growth which is not a response to sea-level fluctuations or a result of the windward / leeward exposure of the bank edge. Ignorance of the impact of currents on platforms and platform slopes may lead to an erroneous conclusion that changes in sediment production, distribution, and morphologies of sediment bodies are features solely related to sea-level changes.

Corrigendum: Bounding sea level projections within the framework of the possibility theory Environ. Res. Lett. (2017 12 014012)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Manceau, Jean-Charles; Rohmer, Jeremy

2017-10-01

Figures 3 and 4 of the article ‘Bounding probabilistic sea-level projections within the framework of the possibility theory’ display a minimum value for sea level rise of 15 cm by 2100 with respect to the 1986-2005 mean for the RCP 8.5. The value of 15 cm is consistent with sea level rise rates dropping back to velocities observed during the 20th century according to recent studies, but not to the current sea level rise velocity of 3.4 mm yr-1, as incorrectly stated in the article. This error has no impact on the rest of the article, including its arguments and conclusions, but it is potentially confusing for scientists willing to reproduce the left side of figures 3 and 4. We apologise for any inconvenience caused.

Estimation of sea level variations with GPS/GLONASS-reflectometry technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padokhin, A. M.; Kurbatov, G. A.; Andreeva, E. S.; Nesterov, I. A.; Nazarenko, M. O.; Berbeneva, N. A.; Karlysheva, A. V.

2017-11-01

In the present paper we study GNSS - reflectometry methods for estimation of sea level variations using a single GNSSreceiver, which are based on the multipath propagation effects caused by the reflection of navigational signals from the sea surface. Such multipath propagation results in the appearance of the interference pattern in the Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) of GNSS signals at small satellite elevation angles, which parameters are determined by the wavelength of the navigational signal and height of the antenna phase center above the reflecting sea surface. In current work we used GPS and GLONASS signals and measurements at two working frequencies of both systems to study sea level variations which almost doubles the amount of observations compared to GPS-only tide gauge. For UNAVCO sc02 station and collocated Friday Harbor NOAA tide gauge we show good agreement between GNSS-reflectometry and traditional mareograph sea level data.

Probabilistic Projections of Future Sea-Level Change and Their Implications for Flood Risk Management: Insights from the American Climate Prospectus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, R. E., III; Delgado, M.; Horton, R. M.; Houser, T.; Little, C. M.; Muir-Wood, R.; Oppenheimer, M.; Rasmussen, D. M., Jr.; Strauss, B.; Tebaldi, C.

2014-12-01

Global mean sea level (GMSL) rise projections are insufficient for adaptation planning; local decisions require local projections that characterize risk over a range of timeframes and tolerances. We present a global set of local sea level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We present complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling [1]. We illustrate the application of this framework by estimating the joint distribution of future sea-level change and coastal flooding, and associated economic costs [1,2]. In much of the world in the current century, differences in median LSL projections are due primarily to varying levels of non-climatic uplift or subsidence. In the 22nd century and in the high-end tails, larger ice sheet contributions, particularly from the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS), contribute significantly to site-to-site differences. Uncertainty in GMSL and most LSL projections is dominated by the uncertain AIS component. Sea-level rise dramatically reshapes flood risk. For example, at the New York City (Battery) tide gauge, our projections indicate a likely (67% probability) 21st century LSL rise under RCP 8.5 of 65--129 cm (1-in-20 chance of exceeding 154 cm). Convolving the distribution of projected sea-level rise with the extreme value distribution of flood return periods indicates that this rise will cause the current 1.80 m `1-in-100 year' flood event to occur an expected nine times over the 21st century -- equivalent to the expected number of `1-in-11 year' floods in the absence of sea-level change. Projected sea-level rise for 2100 under RCP 8.5 would likely place 80-160 billion of current property in New York below the high tide line, with a 1-in-20 chance of losses >190 billion. Even without accounting for potential changes in storms themselves, it would likely increase average annual storm damage by 2.6-5.2 billion (1-in-20 chance of >7 billion). Projected increases in tropical cyclone intensity would further increase damages [2]. References: [1] R. E. Kopp et al. (2014), Earth's Future, doi:10.1002/2014EF000239. [2] T. Houser et al. (2014), American Climate Prospectus, www.climateprospectus.org.

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment and Contemporary Sea Level Rise: An Overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spada, Giorgio

2017-01-01

Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) encompasses a suite of geophysical phenomena accompanying the waxing and waning of continental-scale ice sheets. These involve the solid Earth, the oceans and the cryosphere both on short (decade to century) and on long (millennia) timescales. In the framework of contemporary sea-level change, the role of GIA is particular. In fact, among the processes significantly contributing to contemporary sea-level change, GIA is the only one for which deformational, gravitational and rotational effects are simultaneously operating, and for which the rheology of the solid Earth is essential. Here, I review the basic elements of the GIA theory, emphasizing the connections with current sea-level changes observed by tide gauges and altimetry. This purpose is met discussing the nature of the "sea-level equation" (SLE), which represents the basis for modeling the sea-level variations of glacial isostatic origin, also giving access to a full set of geodetic variations associated with GIA. Here, the SLE is employed to characterize the remarkable geographical variability of the GIA-induced sea-level variations, which are often expressed in terms of "fingerprints". Using harmonic analysis, the spatial variability of the GIA fingerprints is compared to that of other components of contemporary sea-level change. In closing, some attention is devoted to the importance of the "GIA corrections" in the context of modern sea-level observations, based on tide gauges or satellite altimeters.

Sea Level Rise Data Discovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quach, N.; Huang, T.; Boening, C.; Gill, K. M.

2016-12-01

Research related to sea level rise crosses multiple disciplines from sea ice to land hydrology. The NASA Sea Level Change Portal (SLCP) is a one-stop source for current sea level change information and data, including interactive tools for accessing and viewing regional data, a virtual dashboard of sea level indicators, and ongoing updates through a suite of editorial products that include content articles, graphics, videos, and animations. The architecture behind the SLCP makes it possible to integrate web content and data relevant to sea level change that are archived across various data centers as well as new data generated by sea level change principal investigators. The Extensible Data Gateway Environment (EDGE) is incorporated into the SLCP architecture to provide a unified platform for web content and science data discovery. EDGE is a data integration platform designed to facilitate high-performance geospatial data discovery and access with the ability to support multi-metadata standard specifications. EDGE has the capability to retrieve data from one or more sources and package the resulting sets into a single response to the requestor. With this unified endpoint, the Data Analysis Tool that is available on the SLCP can retrieve dataset and granule level metadata as well as perform geospatial search on the data. This talk focuses on the architecture that makes it possible to seamlessly integrate and enable discovery of disparate data relevant to sea level rise.

Acceleration in U.S. Mean Sea Level? A New Insight using Improved Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, Phil J.

2016-08-01

The detection of acceleration in mean sea level around the data-rich margins of the United States has been a keen endeavour of sea-level researchers following the seminal work of Bruce Douglas in 1992. Over the past decade, such investigations have taken on greater prominence given mean sea level remains a key proxy by which to measure a changing climate system. The physics-based climate projection models are forecasting that the current global average rate of mean sea-level rise (≈3 mm/y) might climb to rates in the range of 10020 mm/y by 2100. Most research in this area has centred on reconciling current rates of rise with the significant accelerations required to meet the forecast projections of climate models. The analysis in this paper is based on a recently developed analytical package titled "msltrend," specifically designed to enhance estimates of trend, real-time velocity and acceleration in the relative mean sea-level signal derived from long annual average ocean-water-level time series. Key findings are that at the 95% confidence level, no consistent or substantial evidence (yet) exists that recent rates of rise are higher or abnormal in the context of the historical records available for the United States, nor does any evidence exist that geocentric rates of rise are above the global average. It is likely that a further 20 years of data will identify whether recent increases east of Galveston and along the east coast are evidence of the onset of climate change induced acceleration.

Ice sheet systems and sea level change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rignot, E. J.

2015-12-01

Modern views of ice sheets provided by satellites, airborne surveys, in situ data and paleoclimate records while transformative of glaciology have not fundamentally changed concerns about ice sheet stability and collapse that emerged in the 1970's. Motivated by the desire to learn more about ice sheets using new technologies, we stumbled on an unexplored field of science and witnessed surprising changes before realizing that most were coming too fast, soon and large. Ice sheets are integrant part of the Earth system; they interact vigorously with the atmosphere and the oceans, yet most of this interaction is not part of current global climate models. Since we have never witnessed the collapse of a marine ice sheet, observations and exploration remain critical sentinels. At present, these observations suggest that Antarctica and Greenland have been launched into a path of multi-meter sea level rise caused by rapid climate warming. While the current loss of ice sheet mass to the ocean remains a trickle, every mm of sea level change will take centuries of climate reversal to get back, several major marine-terminating sectors have been pushed out of equilibrium, and ice shelves are irremediably being lost. As glaciers retreat from their salty, warm, oceanic margins, they will melt away and retreat slower, but concerns remain about sea level change from vastly marine-based sectors: 2-m sea level equivalent in Greenland and 23-m in Antarctica. Significant changes affect 2/4 marine-based sectors in Greenland - Jakobshavn Isb. and the northeast stream - with Petermann Gl. not far behind. Major changes have affected the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica since the 1980s. Smaller yet significant changes affect the marine-based Wilkes Land sector of East Antarctica, a reminder that not all marine-based ice is in West Antarctica. Major advances in reducing uncertainties in sea level projections will require massive, interdisciplinary efforts that are not currently in place but are getting there. Projection scenarios are overwhelmingly conservative, pushed up by observations, awaiting more detailed knowledge of ocean circulation, winds, ice-ocean interaction, and mechanics of rapid ice fracture, not to mention the mere definition of static boundaries (ice thickness and sea floor bathymetry).

An Experimental Real-Time Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System for Intra America Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ko, D. S.; Preller, R. H.; Martin, P. J.

2003-04-01

An experimental real-time Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System has been developed for the Intra America Seas (IASNFS). The area of coverage includes the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the Straits of Florida. The system produces nowcast and up to 72 hours forecast the sea level variation, 3D ocean current, temperature and salinity fields. IASNFS consists an 1/24 degree (~5 km), 41-level sigma-z data-assimilating ocean model based on NCOM. For daily nowcast/forecast the model is restarted from previous nowcast. Once model is restarted it continuously assimilates the synthetic temperature/salinity profiles generated by a data analysis model called MODAS to produce nowcast. Real-time data come from satellite altimeter (GFO, TOPEX/Poseidon, ERS-2) sea surface height anomaly and AVHRR sea surface temperature. Three hourly surface heat fluxes, including solar radiation, wind stresses and sea level air pressure from NOGAPS/FNMOC are applied for surface forcing. Forecasts are produced with available NOGAPS forecasts. Once the nowcast/forecast are produced they are distributed through the Internet via the updated web pages. The open boundary conditions including sea surface elevation, transport, temperature, salinity and currents are provided by the NRL 1/8 degree Global NCOM which is operated daily. An one way coupling scheme is used to ingest those boundary conditions into the IAS model. There are 41 rivers with monthly discharges included in the IASNFS.

Coastal Vulnerability Due to Sea-level Rise Hazard in the Bangladesh Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shum, Ck; Ballu, Valérie; Calmant, Stéphane; Duan, Jianbin; Guo, Junyi; Hossain, Fasial; Jenkins, Craig; Haque Khan, Zahirul; Kim, Jinwoo; Kuhn, Michael; Kusche, Jürgen; Papa, Fabrice; Tseng, Kuohsin; Wan, Junkun

2014-05-01

Approximately half of the world's population or 3.2 billion people lives within 200 km of coastlines and many of them in the world's deltaic plains. Sea-level rise, widely recognized as one of consequences resulting from anthropogenic climate change, has induced substantial coastal vulnerability globally and in particular, in the deltaic regions, such as coastal Bangladesh, and Yangtze Delta. Bangladesh, a low-lying, one of the most densely populated countries in the world located at the Bay of Bengal, is prone to transboundary monsoonal flooding, potentially aggravated by more frequent and intensified cyclones resulting from anthropogenic climate change. Sea-level rise, along with tectonic, sediment load and groundwater extraction induced land uplift/subsidence, have exacerbated Bangladesh's coastal vulnerability. Here we describe the physical science component of the integrated approach based on both physical and social sciences to address the adaption and potential mitigation of coastal Bangladesh vulnerability. The objective is to quantify the estimates of spatial varying sea-level trend separating the vertical motion of the coastal regions using geodetic and remote-sensing measurements (tide gauges, 1950-current; satellite altimetry, 1992-present, GRACE, 2003-present, Landsat/MODIS), reconstructed sea-level trends (1950-current), and GPS and InSAR observed land subsidence. Our goal is to conduct physically based robust projection of relative sea-level change at the end of the 21st century for the Bangladesh Delta to enable quantitative measures of social science based adaption and possible mitigation.

Observation-Driven Estimation of the Spatial Variability of 20th Century Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamlington, B. D.; Burgos, A.; Thompson, P. R.; Landerer, F. W.; Piecuch, C. G.; Adhikari, S.; Caron, L.; Reager, J. T.; Ivins, E. R.

2018-03-01

Over the past two decades, sea level measurements made by satellites have given clear indications of both global and regional sea level rise. Numerous studies have sought to leverage the modern satellite record and available historic sea level data provided by tide gauges to estimate past sea level rise, leading to several estimates for the 20th century trend in global mean sea level in the range between 1 and 2 mm/yr. On regional scales, few attempts have been made to estimate trends over the same time period. This is due largely to the inhomogeneity and quality of the tide gauge network through the 20th century, which render commonly used reconstruction techniques inadequate. Here, a new approach is adopted, integrating data from a select set of tide gauges with prior estimates of spatial structure based on historical sea level forcing information from the major contributing processes over the past century. The resulting map of 20th century regional sea level rise is optimized to agree with the tide gauge-measured trends, and provides an indication of the likely contributions of different sources to regional patterns. Of equal importance, this study demonstrates the sensitivities of this regional trend map to current knowledge and uncertainty of the contributing processes.

Glaciers dominate eustatic sea-level rise in the 21st century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meier, Mark Frederick; Dyurgerov, M.B.; Rick, Ursula K.; Pfeffer, William Tad; Anderson, Suzanne P.; Glazovsky, Andrey F.

2007-01-01

Ice loss to the sea currently accounts for virtually all of the sea-level rise that is not attributable to ocean warming, and about 60% of the ice loss is from glaciers and ice caps rather than from the two ice sheets. The contribution of these smaller glaciers has accelerated over the past decade, in part due to marked thinning and retreat of marine-terminating glaciers associated with a dynamic instability that is generally not considered in mass-balance and climate modeling. This acceleration of glacier melt may cause 0.1 to 0.25 meter of additional sea-level rise by 2100.

Modeling Anthropogenic Impact on Sediment Balance and Relative Sea-Level Rise in Contemporary and Future Deltas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tessler, Z. D.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Overeem, I.; Syvitski, J. P.

2017-12-01

Modern deltas are dependent on human-mediated freshwater and sediment fluxes. Changes to these fluxes impact delta biogeophysical functioning, and affect the long-term sustainability of these landscapes for both human and natural systems. Here we present contemporary estimates of long-term mean sediment balance and relative sea-level rise across 46 global deltas. We model ongoing development and scenarios of future water resource management and hydropower infrastructure in upstream river basins to explore how changing sediment fluxes impact relative sea-level in coastal delta systems. Model results show that contemporary sediment fluxes, anthropogenic drivers of land subsidence, and sea-level rise result in relative sea-level rise rates in deltas that average 6.8 mm/year. Currently planned or under-construction dams can be expected to increase rates of relative sea-level rise on the order of 1 mm/year. Some deltas systems, including the Magdalena, Orinoco, and Indus, are highly sensitive to future impoundment of river basins, with RSLR rates increasing up to 4 mm/year in a high-hydropower-utilization scenario. Sediment fluxes may be reduced by up to 60% in the Danube and 21% in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Megnha if all currently planned dams are constructed. Reduced sediment retention on deltas due to increased river channelization and local flood controls increases RSLR on average by nearly 2 mm/year. Long-term delta sustainability requires a more complete understanding of how geophysical and anthropogenic change impact delta geomorphology. Strategies for sustainable delta management that focus on local and regional drivers of change, especially groundwater and hydrocarbon extraction and upstream dam construction, can be highly impactful even in the context of global climate-induced sea-level rise.

Determining the response of sea level to atmospheric pressure forcing using TOPEX/POSEIDON data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, Lee-Lueng; Pihos, Greg

1994-01-01

The static response of sea level to the forcing of atmospheric pressure, the so-called inverted barometer (IB) effect, is investigated using TOPEX/POSEIDON data. This response, characterized by the rise and fall of sea level to compensate for the change of atmospheric pressure at a rate of -1 cm/mbar, is not associated with any ocean currents and hence is normally treated as an error to be removed from sea level observation. Linear regression and spectral transfer function analyses are applied to sea level and pressure to examine the validity of the IB effect. In regions outside the tropics, the regression coefficient is found to be consistently close to the theoretical value except for the regions of western boundary currents, where the mesoscale variability interferes with the IB effect. The spectral transfer function shows near IB response at periods of 30 degrees is -0.84 +/- 0.29 cm/mbar (1 standard deviation). The deviation from = 1 cm /mbar is shown to be caused primarily by the effect of wind forcing on sea level, based on multivariate linear regression model involving both pressure and wind forcing. The regression coefficient for pressure resulting from the multivariate analysis is -0.96 +/- 0.32 cm/mbar. In the tropics the multivariate analysis fails because sea level in the tropics is primarily responding to remote wind forcing. However, after removing from the data the wind-forced sea level estimated by a dynamic model of the tropical Pacific, the pressure regression coefficient improves from -1.22 +/- 0.69 cm/mbar to -0.99 +/- 0.46 cm/mbar, clearly revealing an IB response. The result of the study suggests that with a proper removal of the effect of wind forcing the IB effect is valid in most of the open ocean at periods longer than 20 days and spatial scales larger than 500 km.

Evaluating the Impact of Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding on NASA Centers and Facilities by Implementing Terrestrial Laser Scanning Surveys to Improve Coastal Digital Elevation and Inundation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, L. J.; Nerem, R. S.; Williams, K.; Meertens, C.; Lestak, L.; Masters, D.

2014-12-01

Sea level is rising in response to climate change. Currently the global mean rate is a little over 3 mm/year, but it is expected to accelerate significantly over this century. This will have a profound impact on coastal populations and infrastructure, including NASA centers and facilities. A detailed study proposed by the University of Colorado's Center for Astrodynamics Research on the impact of sea level rise on several of NASA's most vulnerable facilities was recently funded by NASA. Individual surveys at several high-risk NASA centers were conducted and used as case studies for a broader investigation that needs to be done for coastal infrastructure around the country. The first two years of this study included implementing and conducting a terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) and GPS survey at Kennedy Space Center, Cape Canaveral, Florida, Wallops Flight Facility, Wallops Island, Virginia, Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia, and Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, California. We are currently using airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data and TLS (Terrestrial Laser Scanning) data to construct detailed digital elevation models (DEMs) of the facilities that we have assessed. The TLS data acquired at each center provides a very dense point cloud that is being used to improve the detail and accuracy of the digital elevation models currently available. We are also using GPS data we acquired at each center to assess the rate of vertical land movement at the facilities and to tie the DEM to tide gauges and other reference points. With completed, detailed DEMs of the topography and facilities at each center, a series of simple inundation models will then be applied to each area. We will use satellite altimeter data from TOPEX, Jason-1, and Jason-2 to assess the sea level changes observed near these NASA facilities over the last 20 years along with sea level projections from global climate models (GCMs) and semi-empirical projections to make detailed maps of sea level inundation through and up to the years 2050 and 2100 for varying amounts of sea level rise. We will also work with other selected investigators to assess the effects of tidal variations and storm surge when coupled with changes in mean sea level, as storm surge is likely when initial damage due to sea level rise will occur.

Tidal analysis of surface currents in the Porsanger fjord in northern Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stramska, Malgorzata; Jankowski, Andrzej; Cieszyńska, Agata

2016-04-01

In this presentation we describe surface currents in the Porsanger fjord (Porsangerfjorden) located in the European Arctic in the vicinity of the Barents Sea. Our analysis is based on data collected in the summer of 2014 using High Frequency radar system. Our interest in this fjord comes from the fact that this is a region of high climatic sensitivity. One of our long-term goals is to develop an improved understanding of the undergoing changes and interactions between this fjord and the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic conditions. In order to derive a better understanding of the ongoing changes one must first improve the knowledge about the physical processes that create the environment of the fjord. The present study is the first step in this direction. Our main objective in this presentation is to evaluate the importance of tidal forcing. Tides in the Porsanger fjord are substantial, with tidal range on the order of about 3 meters. Tidal analysis attributes to tides about 99% of variance in sea level time series recorded in Honningsvåg. The most important tidal component based on sea level data is the M2 component (amplitude of ~90 cm). The S2 and N2 components (amplitude of ~ 20 cm) also play a significant role in the semidiurnal sea level oscillations. The most important diurnal component is K1 with amplitude of about 8 cm. Tidal analysis lead us to the conclusion that the most important tidal component in observed surface currents is also the M2 component. The second most important component is the S2 component. Our results indicate that in contrast to sea level, only about 10 - 20% of variance in surface currents can be attributed to tidal currents. This means that about 80-90% of variance can be credited to wind-induced and geostrophic currents. This work was funded by the Norway Grants (NCBR contract No. 201985, project NORDFLUX). Partial support for MS comes from the Institute of Oceanology (IO PAN).

Blade design and performance analysis on the horizontal axis tidal current turbine for low water level channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, C. C.; Choi, Y. D.; Y Yoon, H.

2013-12-01

Most tidal current turbine design are focused on middle and large scale for deep sea, less attention was paid in low water level channel, such as the region around the islands, coastal seas and rivers. This study aims to develop a horizontal axis tidal current turbine rotor blade which is applicable to low water level island region in southwest of Korea. The blade design is made by using BEMT(blade element momentum theory). The section airfoil profile of NACA63-415 is used, which shows good performance of lift coefficient and drag coefficient. Power coefficient, pressure and velocity distributions are investigated according to TSR by CFD analysis.

New developments in satellite oceanography and current measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, N. E.

1979-01-01

Principal satellite remote sensing techniques and instruments are described and attention is given to the application of such techniques to ocean current measurement. The use of radiometers, satellite tracking drifters, and altimeters for current measurement is examined. Consideration is also given to other applications of satellite remote sensing in physical oceanography, including measurements of surface wind stress, sea state, tides, ice, sea surface temperature, salinity, ocean color, and oceanic leveling.

Projecting Future Sea Level Rise for Water Resources Planning in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, J.; Kao, K.; Chung, F.

2008-12-01

Sea level rise is one of the major concerns for the management of California's water resources. Higher water levels and salinity intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta could affect water supplies, water quality, levee stability, and aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna species and their habitat. Over the 20th century, sea levels near San Francisco Bay increased by over 0.6ft. Some tidal gauge and satellite data indicate that rates of sea level rise are accelerating. Sea levels are expected to continue to rise due to increasing air temperatures causing thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of land-based ice such as ice on Greenland and in southeastern Alaska. For water planners, two related questions are raised on the uncertainty of future sea levels. First, what is the expected sea level at a specific point in time in the future, e.g., what is the expected sea level in 2050? Second, what is the expected point of time in the future when sea levels will exceed a certain height, e.g., what is the expected range of time when the sea level rises by one foot? To address these two types of questions, two factors are considered: (1) long term sea level rise trend, and (2) local extreme sea level fluctuations. A two-step approach will be used to develop sea level rise projection guidelines for decision making that takes both of these factors into account. The first step is developing global sea level rise probability distributions for the long term trends. The second step will extend the approach to take into account the effects of local astronomical tides, changes in atmospheric pressure, wind stress, floods, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. In this paper, the development of the first step approach is presented. To project the long term sea level rise trend, one option is to extend the current rate of sea level rise into the future. However, since recent data indicate rates of sea level rise are accelerating, methods for estimating sea level rise that account for this acceleration are needed. One such method is an empirical relationship between air temperatures and global sea levels. The air temperature-sea level rise relationship was applied to the 12 climate change projections selected by the California Climate Action Team to estimate future sea levels. The 95% confidence level developed from the historical data was extrapolated to estimate the uncertainties in the future projections. To create sea level rise trend probability distributions, a lognormal probability distribution and a generalized extreme value probability distribution are used. Parameter estimations for these distributions are subjective and inevitably involve uncertainties, which will be improved as more research is conducted in this area.

Sea level controls on the textural characteristics and depositional architecture of the Hueneme and associated submarine fan systems, Santa Monica Basin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Normark, W.R.; Piper, D.J.W.; Hiscott, R.N.

1998-01-01

Hueneme and Dume submarine fans in Santa Monica Basin consist of sandy channel and muddy levee facies on the upper fan. lenticular sand sheets on the middle fan. and thinly bedded turbidite and hemipelagic facies elsewhere. Fifteen widely correlatable key seismic reflections in high-resolution airgun and deep-towed boomer profiles subdivide the fan and basin deposits into time-slices that show different thickness and seismic-facies distributions, inferred to result from changes in Quaternary sea level and sediment supply. At times of low sea level, highly efficient turbidity currents generated by hyperpycnal flows or sediment failures at river deltas carry sand well out onto the middle-fan area. Thick, muddy flows formed rapidly prograding high levees mainly on the western (right-hand) side of three valleys that fed Hueneme fan at different times: the most recently active of the lowstand fan valleys. Hueneme fan valley, now heads in Hueneme Canyon. At times of high sea level, fans receive sand from submarine canyons that intercept littoral-drift cells and mixed sediment from earthquake-triggered slumps. Turbidity currents are confined to 'underfit' talweg channels in fan valleys and to steep, small, basin-margin fans like Dume fan. Mud is effectively separated from sand at high sea level and moves basinward across the shelf in plumes and in storm-generated lutite flows, contributing to a basin-floor blanket that is locally thicker than contemporary fan deposits and that onlaps older fans at the basin margin. The infilling of Santa Monica Basin has involved both fan and basin-floor aggradation accompanied by landward and basinward facies shifts. Progradation was restricted to the downslope growth of high muddy levees and the periodic basinward advance of the toe of the steeper and sandier Dume fan. Although the region is tectonically active, major sedimentation changes can be related to eustatic sea-level changes. The primary controls on facies shifts and fan growth appear to be an interplay of texture of source sediment, the efficiency with which turbidity currents transport sand, and the effects of delta distributary switching, all of which reflect sea-level changes.

Improving the Predictability of Severe Water Levels along the Coasts of Marginal Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridder, N. N.; de Vries, H.; van den Brink, H.; De Vries, H.

2016-12-01

Extreme water levels can lead to catastrophic consequences with severe societal and economic repercussions. Particularly vulnerable are countries that are largely situated below sea level. To support and optimize forecast models, as well as future adaptation efforts, this study assesses the modeled contribution of storm surges and astronomical tides to total water levels under different air-sea momentum transfer parameterizations in a numerical surge model (WAQUA/DCSMv5) of the North Sea. It particularly focuses on the implications for the representation of extreme and rapidly recurring severe water levels over the past decades based on the example of the Netherlands. For this, WAQUA/DCSMv5, which is currently used to forecast coastal water levels in the Netherlands, is forced with ERA Interim reanalysis data. Model results are obtained from two different methodologies to parameterize air-sea momentum transfer. The first calculates the governing wind stress forcing using a drag coefficient derived from the conventional approach of wind speed dependent Charnock constants. The other uses instantaneous wind stress from the parameterization of the quasi-linear theory applied within the ECMWF wave model which is expected to deliver a more realistic forcing. The performance of both methods is tested by validating the model output with observations, paying particular attention to their ability to reproduce rapidly succeeding high water levels and extreme events. In a second step, the common features of and connections between these events are analyzed. The results of this study will allow recommendations for the improvement of water level forecasts within marginal seas and support decisions by policy makers. Furthermore, they will strengthen the general understanding of severe and extreme water levels as a whole and help to extend the currently limited knowledge about clustering events.

The Pianosa Contourite Depositional System (Northern Tyrrhenian Sea): drift morphology and Plio-Quaternary stratigraphic evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miramontes Garcia, Elda; Cattaneo, Antonio; Jouet, Gwenael; Thereau, Estelle; Thomas, Yannick; Rovere, Marzia; Cauquil, Eric; Trincardi, Fabio

2016-04-01

The Pianosa Contourite Depositional System (CDS) is located in the Corsica Trough (Northern Tyrrhenian Sea), a confined basin dominated by mass transport and contour currents in the eastern flank and by turbidity currents in the western flank. The morphologic and stratigraphic characterisation of the Pianosa CDS is based on multibeam bathymetry, seismic reflection data (multi-channel high resolution mini GI gun, single-channel sparker and CHIRP), sediment cores and ADCP data. The Pianosa CDS is located at shallow to intermediate water depths (170 to 850 m water depth) and is formed under the influence of the Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW). It is 120 km long, has a maximum width of 10 km and is composed of different types of muddy sediment drifts: plastered drift, separated mounded drift, sigmoid drift and multicrested drift. The reduced tectonic activity in the Corsica Trough since the early Pliocene permits to recover a sedimentary record of the contourite depositional system that is only influenced by climate fluctuations. Contourites started to develop in the Middle-Late Pliocene, but their growth was enhanced since the Middle Pleistocene Transition (0.7-0.9 Ma). Although the general circulation of the LIW, flowing northwards in the Corsica Trough, remained active all along the history of the system, contourite drift formation changed, controlled by sediment influx and bottom current velocity. During periods of sea level fall, fast bottom currents often eroded the drift crest in the middle and upper slope. At that time the proximity of the coast to the shelf edge favoured the formation of bioclastic sand deposits winnowed by bottom currents. Higher sediment accumulation of mud in the drifts occurred during periods of fast bottom currents and high sediment availability (i.e. high activity of turbidity currents), coincident with periods of sea level low-stands. Condensed sections were formed during sea level high-stands, when bottom currents were more sluggish and the turbidite system was disconnected, resulting in a lower sediment influx.

Interannual sea level variability in the Pearl River Estuary and its response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Linlin; Li, Qiang; Mao, Xian-zhong; Bi, Hongsheng; Yin, Peng

2018-03-01

The South China coast, especially the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) region, is prosperous and densely populated, but vulnerable to sea level changes. Sea level anomalies (SLA) during 1954-2012 from tide gauge station data and regional SLAs during 1993-2012 from satellite altimetry are analyzed and compare to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results show that sea level declines during El Niño events and rises during La Niña. Sea level in the PRE responds to ENSO with 3-month lag. The ENSO can cause sea level in the PRE to fluctuate from -8.70 to 8.11 cm. Sea level cycles of 3 and 5 years are related to ENSO. The ENSO mechanism affecting sea level in the PRE was analyzed by identifying dominant regional and local forces. Weak/strong SLAs in most El Niño/La Niña events may be attributed to less/more seawater transport driven by anomalously weak/strong north winds and local anomalously high/low sea level pressure. Wind-driven coastal current is the predominant factor. It generated coastal seawater volume transport along a 160 km wide cross section to decrease by 21.07% in a typical El Niño period (January 2010) and increase by 44.03% in a typical La Niña period (January 2011) as compared to an ENSO neutral situation (January 2013). Results of sea level rise and its potential mechanism provide insight for disaster protection during extreme El Niño/La Niña events.

Portrait of a Warming Ocean and Rising Sea Levels: Trend of Sea Level Change 1993-2008

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2008-01-01

Warming water and melting land ice have raised global mean sea level 4.5 centimeters (1.7 inches) from 1993 to 2008. But the rise is by no means uniform. This image, created with sea surface height data from the Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellites, shows exactly where sea level has changed during this time and how quickly these changes have occurred.

It's also a road map showing where the ocean currently stores the growing amount of heat it is absorbing from Earth's atmosphere and the heat it receives directly from the Sun. The warmer the water, the higher the sea surface rises. The location of heat in the ocean and its movement around the globe play a pivotal role in Earth's climate.

Light blue indicates areas in which sea level has remained relatively constant since 1993. White, red, and yellow are regions where sea levels have risen the most rapidly up to 10 millimeters per year and which contain the most heat. Green areas have also risen, but more moderately. Purple and dark blue show where sea levels have dropped, due to cooler water.

The dramatic variation in sea surface heights and heat content across the ocean are due to winds, currents and long-term changes in patterns of circulation. From 1993 to 2008, the largest area of rapidly rising sea levels and the greatest concentration of heat has been in the Pacific, which now shows the characteristics of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a feature that can last 10 to 20 years or even longer.

In this 'cool' phase, the PDO appears as a horseshoe-shaped pattern of warm water in the Western Pacific reaching from the far north to the Southern Ocean enclosing a large wedge of cool water with low sea surface heights in the eastern Pacific. This ocean/climate phenomenon may be caused by wind-driven Rossby waves. Thousands of kilometers long, these waves move from east to west on either side of the equator changing the distribution of water mass and heat.

This image of sea level trend also reveals a significant area of rising sea levels in the North Atlantic where sea levels are usually low. This large pool of rapidly rising warm water is evidence of a major change in ocean circulation. It signals a slow down in the sub-polar gyre, a counter-clockwise system of currents that loop between Ireland, Greenland and Newfoundland.

Such a change could have an impact on climate since the sub-polar gyre may be connected in some way to the nearby global thermohaline circulation, commonly known as the global conveyor belt. This is the slow-moving circulation in which water sinks in the North Atlantic at different locations around the sub-polar gyre, spreads south, travels around the globe, and slowly up-wells to the surface before returning around the southern tip of Africa. Then it winds its way through the surface currents in the Atlantic and eventually comes back to the North Atlantic.

It is unclear if the weakening of the North Atlantic sub-polar gyre is part of a natural cycle or related to global warming.

This image was made possible by the detailed record of sea surface height measurements begun by Topex/Poseidon and continued by Jason-1. The recently launched Ocean Surface Topography Mission on the Jason-2 satellite (OSTM/Jason-2) will soon take over this responsibility from Jason-1. The older satellite will move alongside OSTM/Jason-2 and continue to measure sea surface height on an adjacent ground track for as long as it is in good health.

Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 are joint missions of NASA and the French space agency, CNES. OSTM/Jason-2 is collaboration between NASA; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; CNES; and the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites. JPL manages the U.S. portion of the missions for NASA's Science Mission Directorate, Washington, D.C.

The Orinoco megadelta as a conservation target in the face of the ongoing and future sea level rise.

PubMed

Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T; Hernández, E; Rull, Valentí; Rull Vegas, Elisa

2015-05-15

Currently, risk assessments related to rising sea levels and the adoption of defensive or adaptive measures to counter these sea level increases are underway for densely populated deltas where economic losses might be important, especially in the developed world. However, many underpopulated deltas harbouring high biological and cultural diversity are also at risk but will most likely continue to be ignored as conservation targets. In this study, we explore the potential effects of erosion, inundation and salinisation on one of the world's comparatively underpopulated megadeltas, the Orinoco Delta. With a 1 m sea level rise expected to occur by 2100, several models predict a moderate erosion of the delta's shorelines, migration or loss of mangroves, general inundation of the delta with an accompanying submersion of wetlands, and an increase in the distance to which sea water intrudes into streams, resulting in harm to the freshwater biota and resources. The Warao people are the indigenous inhabitants of the Orinoco Delta and currently are subject to various socioeconomic stressors. Changes due to sea level rise will occur extremely rapidly and cause abrupt shifts in the Warao's traditional environments and resources, resulting in migrations and abandonment of their ancestral territories. However, evidence indicates that deltaic aggradation/accretion processes at the Orinoco delta due to allochthonous sediment input and vegetation growth could be elevating the surface of the land, keeping pace with the local sea level rise. Other underpopulated and large deltas of the world also may risk immeasurable biodiversity and cultural losses and should not be forgotten as important conservation targets. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The Linear Predictability of Sea Level: A Benchmark

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonnewald, M.; Wunsch, C.; Heimbach, P.

2016-12-01

A benchmark of linear predictive skill of global sea level is presented, complimenting more complicated model studies of future predictive skill. Sea level is of great socioeconomic interest, as most of the worlds population live by the sea. Currently, the spread in model projections suggests poor predictive skill outside the seasonal cycle. We use 20 years of data from the ECCOv4 state estimate (1992-2012), assessing the variance attributable to the seasons and the linear predictability potential of the deseasoned component of sea level. The Northern Hemisphere has large regions where the seasons make up >90% of the variance, particularly in the western boundary current regions and zonal bands along the equator. The deaseasoned sea level is more dominant in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly in the Southern Ocean. We treat the deseasoned sea level as a weakly stationary random process, whose predictability is given by the covariance structure. Fitting an ARMA(n,m) model, we choose the order using the Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria (AIC and BIC). The AIC is more appropriate, with generally higher orders chosen and offering slightly more predictive accuracy. Monthly detrended data shows skill generally of the order of a few months, with isolated regions of twelve months or more. With the trend, the predictive skill increases, particularly in the South Pacific. We assess the annually averaged data, although our time-series is too short to assess the variability. There is some predictive skill, which is enhanced if the trend is not removed. A major caveat of our approach is that we test and train our model on the same dataset due to the short duration of available data.

50 CFR 648.90 - NE multispecies assessment, framework procedures and specifications, and flexible area action...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

...; survey results; stock status; current estimates of fishing mortality and overfishing levels; social and... survey data or, if sea sampling data are unavailable, length frequency information from trawl surveys... size; sea sampling, port sampling, and survey data or, if sea sampling data are unavailable, length...

A Mediterranean coastal database for assessing the impacts of sea-level rise and associated hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolff, Claudia; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Muis, Sanne; Lincke, Daniel; Satta, Alessio; Lionello, Piero; Jimenez, Jose A.; Conte, Dario; Hinkel, Jochen

2018-03-01

We have developed a new coastal database for the Mediterranean basin that is intended for coastal impact and adaptation assessment to sea-level rise and associated hazards on a regional scale. The data structure of the database relies on a linear representation of the coast with associated spatial assessment units. Using information on coastal morphology, human settlements and administrative boundaries, we have divided the Mediterranean coast into 13 900 coastal assessment units. To these units we have spatially attributed 160 parameters on the characteristics of the natural and socio-economic subsystems, such as extreme sea levels, vertical land movement and number of people exposed to sea-level rise and extreme sea levels. The database contains information on current conditions and on plausible future changes that are essential drivers for future impacts, such as sea-level rise rates and socio-economic development. Besides its intended use in risk and impact assessment, we anticipate that the Mediterranean Coastal Database (MCD) constitutes a useful source of information for a wide range of coastal applications.

A Mediterranean coastal database for assessing the impacts of sea-level rise and associated hazards

PubMed Central

Wolff, Claudia; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Muis, Sanne; Lincke, Daniel; Satta, Alessio; Lionello, Piero; Jimenez, Jose A.; Conte, Dario; Hinkel, Jochen

2018-01-01

We have developed a new coastal database for the Mediterranean basin that is intended for coastal impact and adaptation assessment to sea-level rise and associated hazards on a regional scale. The data structure of the database relies on a linear representation of the coast with associated spatial assessment units. Using information on coastal morphology, human settlements and administrative boundaries, we have divided the Mediterranean coast into 13 900 coastal assessment units. To these units we have spatially attributed 160 parameters on the characteristics of the natural and socio-economic subsystems, such as extreme sea levels, vertical land movement and number of people exposed to sea-level rise and extreme sea levels. The database contains information on current conditions and on plausible future changes that are essential drivers for future impacts, such as sea-level rise rates and socio-economic development. Besides its intended use in risk and impact assessment, we anticipate that the Mediterranean Coastal Database (MCD) constitutes a useful source of information for a wide range of coastal applications. PMID:29583140

Historical Sea Level in the South Pacific from Rescued Archives, Geodetic Measurements, and Satellite Altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aucan, J.; Merrifield, M. A.; Pouvreau, N.

2017-10-01

Automatic sea-level measurements in Nouméa, South Pacific, started in 1957 for the International Geophysical year. Data from this location exist in paper record for the 1957-1967 period, and in two distinct electronic records for the 1967-2005 and 2005-2015 period. In this study, we digitize the early record, and established a link between the two electronic records to create a unique, nearly 60 year-long instrumental sea-level record. This work creates one of the longest instrumental sea-level records in the Pacific Islands. These data are critical for the study of regional and interannual variations of sea level. This new data set is then used to infer rates of vertical movements by comparing it to (1) the entire satellite altimetric record (1993-2013) and (2) a global sea-level reconstruction (1957-2010). These inferred rates show an uplift of 1.3-1.4 mm/year, opposite to the currently accepted values of subsidence found in the geological and geodetic literature, and underlie the importance of systematic geodetic measurements at, over very near tide gauges.

Sea level and turbidity controls on mangrove soil surface elevation change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovelock, Catherine E.; Fernanda Adame, Maria; Bennion, Vicki; Hayes, Matthew; Reef, Ruth; Santini, Nadia; Cahoon, Donald R.

2015-01-01

Increases in sea level are a threat to seaward fringing mangrove forests if levels of inundation exceed the physiological tolerance of the trees; however, tidal wetlands can keep pace with sea level rise if soil surface elevations can increase at the same pace as sea level rise. Sediment accretion on the soil surface and belowground production of roots are proposed to increase with increasing sea level, enabling intertidal habitats to maintain their position relative to mean sea level, but there are few tests of these predictions in mangrove forests. Here we used variation in sea level and the availability of sediments caused by seasonal and inter-annual variation in the intensity of La Nina-El Nino to assess the effects of increasing sea level on surface elevation gains and contributing processes (accretion on the surface, subsidence and root growth) in mangrove forests. We found that soil surface elevation increased with mean sea level (which varied over 250 mm during the study) and with turbidity at sites where fine sediment in the water column is abundant. In contrast, where sediments were sandy, rates of surface elevation gain were high, but not significantly related to variation in turbidity, and were likely to be influenced by other factors that deliver sand to the mangrove forest. Root growth was not linked to soil surface elevation gains, although it was associated with reduced shallow subsidence, and therefore may contribute to the capacity of mangroves to keep pace with sea level rise. Our results indicate both surface (sedimentation) and subsurface (root growth) processes can influence mangrove capacity to keep pace with sea level rise within the same geographic location, and that current models of tidal marsh responses to sea level rise capture the major feature of the response of mangroves where fine, but not coarse, sediments are abundant.

Using high sampling rate (10/20 Hz) altimeter data for the observation of coastal surface currents: A case study over the northwestern Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birol, Florence; Delebecque, Caroline

2014-01-01

Satellite altimetry, measuring sea surface heights (SSHs), has unique capabilities to provide information about the ocean dynamics. In this paper, the skill of the original full rate (10/20 Hz) measurements, relative to conventional 1-Hz data, is evaluated in the context of coastal studies in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea. The performance and the question of the measurement noise are quantified through a comparison with different tide gauge sea level time series. By applying a specific processing, closer than 30 km to the land, the number of valid data is higher for the 10/20-Hz than for the 1-Hz observations: + 4.5% for T/P, + 10.3 for Jason-1 and + 13% for Jason-2. By filtering higher sampling rate measurements (using a 30-km cut-off low-pass Lanczos filter), we can obtain the same level of sea level accuracy as we would using the classical 1-Hz altimeter data. The gain in near-shore data results in a better observation of the Liguro-Provençal-Catalan Current. The seasonal evolution of the currents derived from 20-Hz data is globally consistent with patterns derived from the corresponding 1-Hz observations. But the use of higher frequency altimeter measurements allows us to observe the variability of the regional flow closer to the coast (~ 10-15 km from land).

The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming.

PubMed

Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

2013-08-20

Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C(-1) and 1.2 m °C(-1) of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C(-1) within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.

The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming

PubMed Central

Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U.; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A.; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

2013-01-01

Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C−1 and 1.2 m °C−1 of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C−1 within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales. PMID:23858443

Sea-level and environmental changes since the last interglacial in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia: an overview

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chivas, Allan R.; Garcı́a, Adriana; van der Kaars, Sander; Couapel, Martine; Holt, Sabine; Reeves, Jessica M.; Wheeler, David J.; Switzer, Adam D.; Murray-Wallace, Colin V.; Banerjee, Debabrata; Price, David M.; Wang, Sue X.; Pearson, Grant; Edgar, N. Terry; Beaufort, Luc; de Deckker, Patrick; Lawson, Ewan; Cecil, C. Blaine

2001-01-01

The Gulf of Carpentaria is an epicontinental sea (maximum depth 70 m) between Australia and New Guinea, bordered to the east by Torres Strait (currently 12 m deep) and to the west by the Arafura Sill (53 m below present sea level). Throughout the Quaternary, during times of low sea-level, the Gulf was separated from the open waters of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, forming Lake Carpentaria, an isolation basin, perched above contemporaneous sea-level with outlet channels to the Arafura Sea. A preliminary interpretation is presented of the palaeoenvironments recorded in six sediment cores collected by the IMAGES program in the Gulf of Carpentaria. The longest core (approx. 15 m) spans the past 130 ka and includes a record of sea-level/lake-level changes, with particular complexity between 80 and 40 ka when sea-level repeatedly breached and withdrew from Gulf/Lake Carpentaria. Evidence from biotic remains (foraminifers, ostracods, pollen), sedimentology and geochemistry clearly identifies a final marine transgression at about 9.7 ka (radiocarbon years). Before this transgression, Lake Carpentaria was surrounded by grassland, was near full, and may have had a surface area approaching 600 km×300 km and a depth of about 15 m. The earlier rise in sea-level which accompanied the Marine Isotopic Stage 6/5 transgression at about 130 ka is constrained by sedimentological and biotic evidence and dated by optical- and thermoluminescence and amino acid racemisation methods.

Combining Probability Distributions of Wind Waves and Sea Level Variations to Assess Return Periods of Coastal Floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leijala, U.; Bjorkqvist, J. V.; Pellikka, H.; Johansson, M. M.; Kahma, K. K.

2017-12-01

Predicting the behaviour of the joint effect of sea level and wind waves is of great significance due to the major impact of flooding events in densely populated coastal regions. As mean sea level rises, the effect of sea level variations accompanied by the waves will be even more harmful in the future. The main challenge when evaluating the effect of waves and sea level variations is that long time series of both variables rarely exist. Wave statistics are also highly location-dependent, thus requiring wave buoy measurements and/or high-resolution wave modelling. As an initial approximation of the joint effect, the variables may be treated as independent random variables, to achieve the probability distribution of their sum. We present results of a case study based on three probability distributions: 1) wave run-up constructed from individual wave buoy measurements, 2) short-term sea level variability based on tide gauge data, and 3) mean sea level projections based on up-to-date regional scenarios. The wave measurements were conducted during 2012-2014 on the coast of city of Helsinki located in the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea. The short-term sea level distribution contains the last 30 years (1986-2015) of hourly data from Helsinki tide gauge, and the mean sea level projections are scenarios adjusted for the Gulf of Finland. Additionally, we present a sensitivity test based on six different theoretical wave height distributions representing different wave behaviour in relation to sea level variations. As these wave distributions are merged with one common sea level distribution, we can study how the different shapes of the wave height distribution affect the distribution of the sum, and which one of the components is dominating under different wave conditions. As an outcome of the method, we obtain a probability distribution of the maximum elevation of the continuous water mass, which enables a flexible tool for evaluating different risk levels in the current and future climate.

Acoustic and optical variations during rapid downward motion episodes in the deep north-western Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Haren, H.; Taupier-Letage, I.; Aguilar, J. A.; Albert, A.; Anghinolfi, M.; Anton, G.; Anvar, S.; Ardid, M.; Assis Jesus, A. C.; Astraatmadja, T.; Aubert, J.-J.; Auer, R.; Baret, B.; Basa, S.; Bazzotti, M.; Bertin, V.; Biagi, S.; Bigongiari, C.; Bou-Cabo, M.; Bouwhuis, M. C.; Brown, A.; Brunner, J.; Busto, J.; Camarena, F.; Capone, A.; Carminati, G.; Carr, J.; Castel, D.; Castorina, E.; Cavasinni, V.; Cecchini, S.; Charvis, Ph.; Chiarusi, T.; Circella, M.; Coniglione, R.; Costantini, H.; Cottini, N.; Coyle, P.; Curtil, C.; de Bonis, G.; Decowski, M. P.; Dekeyser, I.; Deschamps, A.; Distefano, C.; Donzaud, C.; Dornic, D.; Drouhin, D.; Eberl, T.; Emanuele, U.; Ernenwein, J.-P.; Escoffier, S.; Fehr, F.; Flaminio, V.; Fratini, K.; Fritsch, U.; Fuda, J.-L.; Giacomelli, G.; Gómez-González, J. P.; Graf, K.; Guillard, G.; Halladjian, G.; Hallewell, G.; Heijboer, A. J.; Hello, Y.; Hernández-Rey, J. J.; Hößl, J.; de Jong, M.; Kalantar-Nayestanaki, N.; Kalekin, O.; Kappes, A.; Katz, U.; Kooijman, P.; Kopper, C.; Kouchner, A.; Kretschmer, W.; Lahmann, R.; Lamare, P.; Lambard, G.; Larosa, G.; Laschinsky, H.; Lefèvre, D.; Lelaizant, G.; Lim, G.; Lo Presti, D.; Loehner, H.; Loucatos, S.; Lucarelli, F.; Lyons, K.; Mangano, S.; Marcelin, M.; Margiotta, A.; Martinez-Mora, J. A.; Maurin, G.; Mazure, A.; Melissas, M.; Montaruli, T.; Morganti, M.; Moscoso, L.; Motz, H.; Naumann, C.; Neff, M.; Ostasch, R.; Palioselitis, G.; Păvălaş, G. E.; Payre, P.; Petrovic, J.; Piattelli, P.; Picot-Clemente, N.; Picq, C.; Pillet, R.; Popa, V.; Pradier, T.; Presani, E.; Racca, C.; Radu, A.; Reed, C.; Riccobene, G.; Richardt, C.; Rujoiu, M.; Russo, G. V.; Salesa, F.; Schoeck, F.; Schuller, J.-P.; Shanidze, R.; Simeone, F.; Spurio, M.; Steijger, J. J. M.; Stolarczyk, Th.; Tamburini, C.; Tasca, L.; Toscano, S.; Vallage, B.; van Elewyck, V.; Vecchi, M.; Vernin, P.; Wijnker, G.; de Wolf, E.; Yepes, H.; Zaborov, D.; Zornoza, J. D.; Zúñiga, J.

2011-08-01

An Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) was moored at the deep-sea site of the ANTARES neutrino telescope near Toulon, France, thus providing a unique opportunity to compare high-resolution acoustic and optical observations between 70 and 170 m above the sea bed at 2475 m. The ADCP measured downward vertical currents of magnitudes up to 0.03 m s-1 in late winter and early spring 2006. In the same period, observations were made of enhanced levels of acoustic reflection, interpreted as suspended particles including zooplankton, by a factor of about 10 and of horizontal currents reaching 0.35 m s-1. These observations coincided with high light levels detected by the telescope, interpreted as increased bioluminescence. During winter 2006 deep dense-water formation occurred in the Ligurian subbasin, thus providing a possible explanation for these observations. However, the 10-20 days quasi-periodic episodes of high levels of acoustic reflection, light and large vertical currents continuing into the summer are not direct evidence of this process. It is hypothesized that the main process allowing for suspended material to be moved vertically later in the year is local advection, linked with topographic boundary current instabilities along the rim of the 'Northern Current'.

SeaRISE: A Multidisciplinary Research Initiative to Predict Rapid Changes in Global Sea Level Caused by Collapse of Marine Ice Sheets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bindschadler, Robert A. (Editor)

1990-01-01

The results of a workshop held to discuss the role of the polar ice sheets in global climate change are reported. The participants agreed that the most important aspect of the ice sheets' involvement in climate change is the potential of marine ice sheets to cause a rapid change in global sea level. To address this concern, a research initiative is called for that considers the full complexity of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere-lithosphere system. This initiative, called SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) has the goal of predicting the contribution of marine ice sheets to rapid changes in global sea level in the next decade to few centuries. To attain this goal, a coordinated program of multidisciplinary investigations must be launched with the linked objectives of understanding the current state, internal dynamics, interactions, and history of this environmental system. The key questions needed to satisfy these objectives are presented and discussed along with a plan of action to make the SeaRISE project a reality.

Linking micro- and macroevolutionary perspectives to evaluate the role of Quaternary sea-level oscillations in island diversification.

PubMed

Papadopoulou, Anna; Knowles, L Lacey

2017-12-01

With shifts in island area, isolation, and cycles of island fusion-fission, the role of Quaternary sea-level oscillations as drivers of diversification is complex and not well understood. Here, we conduct parallel comparisons of population and species divergence between two island areas of equivalent size that have been affected differently by sea-level oscillations, with the aim to understand the micro- and macroevolutionary dynamics associated with sea-level change. Using genome-wide datasets for a clade of seven Amphiacusta ground cricket species endemic to the Puerto Rico Bank (PRB), we found consistently deeper interspecific divergences and higher population differentiation across the unfragmented Western PRB, in comparison to the currently fragmented Eastern PRB that has experienced extreme changes in island area and connectivity during the Quaternary. We evaluate alternative hypotheses related to the microevolutionary processes (population splitting, extinction, and merging) that regulate the frequency of completed speciation across the PRB. Our results suggest that under certain combinations of archipelago characteristics and taxon traits, the repeated changes in island area and connectivity may create an opposite effect to the hypothesized "species pump" action of oscillating sea levels. Our study highlights how a microevolutionary perspective can complement current macroecological work on the Quaternary dynamics of island biodiversity. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Inundation for Categories 2 and 4

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The file geodatabase (fgdb) contains the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Maximum of Maximums (MOM) model for hurricane categories 2 and 4. The EPA Office of Research & Development (ORD) modified the original model from NOAA to fit the model parameters for the Buzzards Bay region. The models show storm surge extent for the Mattapoisett area and therefore the flooding area was reduced to the study area. Areas of flooding that were not connected to the main water body were removed. The files in the geodatabase are:Cat2_SLR0_Int_Feet_dissolve_Mattapoisett: Current Category 2 hurricane with 0 ft sea level riseCat4_SLR0_Int_Feet_dissolve_Mattapoisett: Current Category 4 hurricane with 0 ft sea level riseCat4_SLR4_Int_Feet_dissolve_Mattapoisett: Future Category 4 hurricane with 4 feet sea level riseThe features support the Weather Ready Mattapoisett story map, which can be accessed via the following link:https://epa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapJournal/index.html?appid=1ff4f1d28a254cb689334799d94b74e2

The Origin of the Tsushima Warm Current in a High Resolution Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Y.; Yeh, S.; Hwang, J.

2008-12-01

Using a high resolution global ocean circulation model results, the present study investigates the origin of the Tsushima Warm Current and related East China Sea Circulation. The simulated Tsushima Warm Current is weaker than the observations by about 30 %, but the persistence of the Taiwan-Tsushima Current System shows that the Taiwan Warm Current is the main source of the Tsushima Warm Current. The high resolution model results allow us to distinguish the Kuroshio intrusion north of Taiwan and west of Kyushu from the Taiwan-Tsushima Current System. West of Kyushu the onshore intrusion of the Kuroshio is strong between September and February, and north of Taiwan between June and November. The annual mean strength of the intrusion is 0.32 Sv west of Kyushu, and 0.22 Sv north of Taiwan. Since the simulated Tsushima Warm Current is weaker than the observation while that of the Taiwan Current is comparable to the observations, the strength of the intrusion is weaker than the reality. In addition, a linear relation is found between the transport of the Tsushima Warm Current and the sea level difference between the Korea/Tsushima Strait and the Tsugaru/Soya Straits, and we can conclude that the sea level difference is the main driving force of the current.

Validation of Mean Absolute Sea Level of the North Atlantic obtained from Drifter, Altimetry and Wind Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maximenko, Nikolai A.

2003-01-01

Mean absolute sea level reflects the deviation of the Ocean surface from geoid due to the ocean currents and is an important characteristic of the dynamical state of the ocean. Values of its spatial variations (order of 1 m) are generally much smaller than deviations of the geoid shape from ellipsoid (order of 100 m) that makes the derivation of the absolute mean sea level a difficult task for gravity and satellite altimetry observations. Technique used by Niiler et al. for computation of the absolute mean sea level in the Kuroshio Extension was then developed into more general method and applied by Niiler et al. (2003b) to the global Ocean. The method is based on the consideration of balance of horizontal momentum.

Earthquakes and sea level - Space and terrestrial metrology on a changing planet

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bilham, R.

1991-02-01

A review is presented of the stability and scale of crustal deformation metrology which has particular relevance to monitoring deformation associated with sea level and earthquakes. Developments in space geodesy and crustal deformation metrology in the last two decades have the potential to acquire a homogeneous global data set for monitoring relative horizontal and vertical motions of the earth's surface to within several millimeters. New tools discussed for forecasting sea level rise and damaging earthquakes include: very long baseline interferometry, satellite laser ranging, the principles of GPS geodesy, and new sea level sensors. Space geodesy permits a unified global basismore » for future metrology of the earth, and the continued availability of the GPS is currently fundamental to this unification.« less

Evidence for a substantial West Antarctic ice sheet contribution to meltwater pulses and abrupt global sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fogwill, C. J.; Turney, C. S.; Golledge, N. R.; Etheridge, D. M.; Rubino, M.; Thornton, D.; Woodward, J.; Winter, K.; van Ommen, T. D.; Moy, A. D.; Curran, M. A.; Rootes, C.; Rivera, A.; Millman, H.

2015-12-01

During the last deglaciation (21,000 to 7,000years ago) global sea level rise was punctuated by several abrupt meltwater spikes triggered by the retreat of ice sheets and glaciers world-wide. However, the debate regarding the relative timing, geographical source and the physical mechanisms driving these rapid increases in sea level has catalyzed debate critical to predicting future sea level rise and climate. Here we present a unique record of West Antarctic Ice Sheet elevation change derived from the Patriot Hills blue ice area, located close to the modern day grounding line of the Institute Ice Stream in the Weddell Sea Embayment. Combined isotopic signatures and gas volume analysis from the ice allows us to develop a record of local ice sheet palaeo-altitude that is assessed against independent regional high-resolution ice sheet modeling studies, allowing us to demonstrate that past ice sheet elevations across this sector of the WSE were considerably higher than those suggested by current terrestrial reconstructions. We argue that ice in the WSE had a significant influence on both pre and post LGM sea level rise including MWP-1A (~14.6 ka) and during MWP-1B (11.7-11.6 ka), reconciling past sea level rise and demonstrating for the first time that this sector of the WAIS made a significant and direct contribution to post LGM sea level rise.

Polar ice-sheet contributions to sea level during past warm periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutton, A.

2015-12-01

Recent sea-level rise has been dominated by thermal expansion and glacier loss, but the contribution from mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is expected to exceed other contributions under future sustained warming. Due to limitations of existing ice sheet models and the lack of relevant analogues in the historical record, projecting the timing and magnitude of polar ice sheet mass loss in the future remains challenging. One approach to improving our understanding of how polar ice-sheet retreat will unfold is to integrate observations and models of sea level, ice sheets, and climate during past intervals of warmth when the polar ice sheets contributed to higher sea levels. A recent review evaluated the evidence of polar ice sheet mass loss during several warm periods, including interglacials during the mid-Pliocene warm period, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, 5e (Last Interglacial), and 1 (Holocene). Sea-level benchmarks of ice-sheet retreat during the first of these three periods, when global mean climate was ~1 to 3 deg. C warmer than preindustrial, are useful for understanding the long-term potential for future sea-level rise. Despite existing uncertainties in these reconstructions, it is clear that our present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past, resulting in a conservative estimate for a global mean sea-level rise of 6 meters above present (or more). This presentation will focus on identifying the approaches that have yielded significant advances in terms of past sea level and ice sheet reconstruction as well as outstanding challenges. A key element of recent advances in sea-level reconstructions is the ability to recognize and quantify the imprint of geophysical processes, such as glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and dynamic topography, that lead to significant spatial variability in sea level reconstructions. Identifying specific ice-sheet sources that contributed to higher sea levels is a challenge that is currently hindered by limited field evidence at high latitudes. Finally, I will explore the concept of how increasing the quantity and quality of paleo sea level and ice sheet reconstructions can lead to improved quantification of contemporary changes in ice sheets and sea level.

Reconstructing Mid- to Late Holocene sea-level change from coral microatolls, French Polynesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallmann, Nadine; Camoin, Gilbert; Eisenhauer, Anton; Botella, Alberic; Milne, Glenn; Vella, Claude; Samankassou, Elias; Pothin, Virginie; Dussouillez, Philippe; Fleury, Jules; Fietzke, Jan

2017-04-01

Coral microatolls are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the mean low water springs level, and can be considered therefore as high-precision recorders of sea-level change. They are of pivotal importance to resolving the rates and amplitudes of millennial-to-century scale changes during periods of relative climate stability such as the Mid- to Late Holocene, which serves as an important baseline of natural variability prior to the industrial revolution. It provides therefore a unique opportunity to study coastal response to sea-level rise, even if the rates of sea-level rise during the Mid- to Late Holocene were lower than the current rates and those expected in the near future. Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level change in French Polynesia was reconstructed based on the coupling between absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral microatolls and their precise positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements. The twelve studied islands represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets (far-field), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. A step-like sea-level rise is evidenced between 6 and 3.9 ka leading to a short sea-level highstand of about a meter in amplitude between 3.9 and 3.6 ka. A sea-level fall, at an average rate of 0.3 mm.yr-1, is recorded between 3.6 and 1.2 ka when sea level approached its present position. In addition, growth pattern analysis of coral microatolls allows the reconstruction of low-amplitude, high-frequency sea-level change on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. The reconstructed sea-level curve extends the Tahiti last deglacial sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to fit far-field deglacial records [Bassett et al., 2005, Science, 309, 925-928].

Postglacial relative sea-level history of the Prince Rupert area, British Columbia, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Letham, Bryn; Martindale, Andrew; Macdonald, Rebecca; Guiry, Eric; Jones, Jacob; Ames, Kenneth M.

2016-12-01

This paper presents a history of relative sea level (RSL) change for the last 15,000 years in the Prince Rupert region on the northern coast of British Columbia, Canada. One hundred twenty-three radiocarbon ages of organic material from isolation basin cores, sediment sequence exposures, and archaeological sites having a recognized relation to past sea levels constrain postglacial RSL. The large number of new measurements relating to past sea-level provides a well constrained RSL curve that differs in significant ways from previously published results. After deglaciation following the Last Glacial Maximum, the region experienced an isostatically-induced rapid RSL drop from as much 50 m asl to as low as -6.3 m asl in as little as a few centuries between 14,500 BP and 13,500 BP. After a lowstand below current sea level for about 2000 years during the terminal Pleistocene, RSL rose again to a highstand at least 6 m asl after the end of the Younger Dryas. RSL slowly dropped through the Holocene to close to its current position by 2000-1500 BP, with some potential fluctuations between 3500 and 1500 BP. This study highlights variation in RSL histories across relatively short distances, which must be accounted for by local RSL reconstructions such as this one. This RSL curve aided in the identification of an 8000-9000 year old archaeological site on a 10-12 m asl terrace, which is currently the earliest dated archaeological site in the area, and it provides guidance for searching for even older archaeological remains. We highlight the utility and potential of this refined RSL history for developing surveys for other archaeological sites associated with paleoshorelines.

Rising tides, rising gates: The complex ecogeomorphic response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise and human interventions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandi, Steven G.; Rodríguez, José F.; Saintilan, Neil; Riccardi, Gerardo; Saco, Patricia M.

2018-04-01

Coastal wetlands are vulnerable to submergence due to sea-level rise, as shown by predictions of up to 80% of global wetland loss by the end of the century. Coastal wetlands with mixed mangrove-saltmarsh vegetation are particularly vulnerable because sea-level rise can promote mangrove encroachment on saltmarsh, reducing overall wetland biodiversity. Here we use an ecogeomorphic framework that incorporates hydrodynamic effects, mangrove-saltmarsh dynamics, and soil accretion processes to assess the effects of control structures on wetland evolution. Migration and accretion patterns of mangrove and saltmarsh are heavily dependent on topography and control structures. We find that current management practices that incorporate a fixed gate for the control of mangrove encroachment are useful initially, but soon become ineffective due to sea-level rise. Raising the gate, to counteract the effects of sea level rise and promote suitable hydrodynamic conditions, excludes mangrove and maintains saltmarsh over the entire simulation period of 100 years

Mid- to Late Holocene Sea-Level Record in French Polynesia, South-Central Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallmann, N.; Camoin, G.; Vella, C.; Eisenhauer, A.; Samankassou, E.; Botella, A.; Milne, G. A.; Fietzke, J.; Dussouillez, P.; Plaine, J.

2014-12-01

The Mid- to Late Holocene provides the opportunity to study the coastal response to sea-level change that has a similar amplitude (i.e., a few decimetres up to 1 m) to the sea-level rise that is likely to occur before the end of the current century. Furthermore, this time period provides an important baseline of natural climate variability prior to the industrial revolution. This study aims to reconstruct Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level change in French Polynesia by examining coral reef records from ten islands, which represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level change studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets ('far-field'), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. The accurate reconstruction of sea-level change relies on absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral colonies and their accurate positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements with a vertical and horizontal precision of ± 2.5 cm and ~1 cm, respectively. We focus mainly on the analysis of coral microatolls, which are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the water level. Their growth patterns allow the reconstruction of low-amplitude and high-frequency sea-level changes on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. A sea-level rise of less than ~1 m is documented between 6 and 3-3.5 ka, and is followed by a gradual fall in sea level that started around 2 ka and persisted until the past few centuries. The reconstructed sea-level curve therefore extends the Tahiti sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to fit far-field deglacial records [Bassett et al., 2005, Science, 309, 925-928].

Wind-induced circulation in a large tropical lagoon: Chetumal Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palacios, E.; Carrillo, L.

2013-05-01

Chetumal Bay is a large tropical lagoon located at the Mesoamerican Reef System. Windinduced circulation in this basin was investigated by using direct measurements of current, sea level, and 2d barotropic numerical model. Acoustic Doppler Profiler (ADP) transects covering the north of Chetumal Bay during two campaigns September 2006 and March 2007 were used. The 2d barotropic numerical model was ROMs based and wind forced. Wind information was obtained from a meteorological station located at ECOSUR Chetumal. Sea level data was collected from a pressure sensor deployed in the lagoon. A seasonal pattern of circulation was observed. From observations, during September 2006, a northward flow was shown in most part of the bay and a southward flow in the eastern coast was observed with velocities ranged from 6 cm s-1 to 36 cm s-1. In March 2007, the current pattern was more complex; divergences and converges were identified. The dominant circulation was northward in eastern portion, and southward in the central and western zone. The average current speed was 6 cm s-1 with maximum values of 26 -34 cm s-1. During September 2006 predominant wind was easternsoutheastern and during March 2007, northerly wind events were recorded. Sea level amplitude responded quickly to changes in the magnitude and direction of the wind. Results of sea level and circulation from the 2d barotropic numerical model agreed with observations at first approximation.

The future for the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) Sea Level Data Rescue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Matthews, Andrew; Rickards, Lesley; Aarup, Thorkild

2016-04-01

Historical sea level data are rare and unrepeatable measurements with a number of applications in climate studies (sea level rise), oceanography (ocean currents, tides, surges), geodesy (national datum), geophysics and geology (coastal land movements) and other disciplines. However, long-term time series are concentrated in the northern hemisphere and there are no records at the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) global data bank longer than 100 years in the Arctic, Africa, South America or Antarctica. Data archaeology activities will help fill in the gaps in the global dataset and improve global sea level reconstruction. The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) is an international programme conducted under the auspices of the WMO-IOC Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology. It was set up in 1985 to collect long-term tide gauge observations and to develop systems and standards "for ocean monitoring and flood warning purposes". At the GLOSS-GE-XIV Meeting in 2015, GLOSS agreed on a number of action items to be developed in the next two years. These were: 1. To explore mareogram digitisation applications, including NUNIEAU (more information available at: http://www.mediterranee.cerema.fr/logiciel-de-numerisation-des-enregistrements-r57.html) and other recent developments in scanning/digitisation software, such as IEDRO's Weather Wizards program, to see if they could be used via a browser. 2. To publicise sea level data archaeology and rescue by: • maintaining and regularly updating the Sea Level Data Archaeology page on the GLOSS website • strengthening links to the GLOSS data centres and data rescue organisations e.g. linking to IEDRO, ACRE, RDA • restarting the sea level data rescue blog with monthly posts. 3. Investigate sources of funding for data archaeology and rescue projects. 4. Propose "Guidelines" for rescuing sea level data. These action items will aid the discovery, scanning, digitising and quality control of analogue tide gauge charts and sea level ledgers and improve the quality, quantity and availability of long-term sea level data series.

Widespread Miocene deep-sea hiatuses: coincidence with periods of global cooling.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barron, J.A.; Keller, G.

1982-01-01

High-resolution biostratigraphic analyses of Miocene deep-sea cores reveal eight intervals of widespread hiatuses in the world ocean. In complete sections these hiatuses correspond to intervals of cool faunal and floral assemblages, rapid enrichment of delta 18O, and sea-level regressions. These factors suggest that Miocene deep-sea hiatuses result from an increased intensity of circulation and corrosiveness of bottom currents during periods of increased polar refrigeration.-Authors

Practical analysis of tide gauges records from Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galassi, Gaia; Spada, Giorgio

2015-04-01

We have collected and analyzed in a basic way the currently available time series from tide gauges deployed along the coasts of Antarctica. The database of the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) holds relative sea level information for 17 stations, which are mostly concentrated in the Antarctic Peninsula (8 out of 17). For 7 of the PSMSL stations, Revised Local Reference (RLR) monthly and yearly observations are available, spanning from year 1957.79 (Almirante Brown) to 2013.95 (Argentine Islands). For the remaining 11 stations, only metric monthly data can be obtained during the time window 1957-2013. The record length of the available time series is not generally exceeding 20 years. Remarkable exceptions are the RLR station of Argentine Island, located in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) (time span: 1958-2013, record length: 54 years, completeness=98%), and the metric station of Syowa in East Antarctica (1975-2012, 37 years, 92%). The general quality (geographical coverage and length of record) of the time series hinders a coherent geophysical interpretation of the relative sea-level data along the coasts of Antarctica. However, in an attempt to characterize the relative sea level signals available, we have stacked (i.e., averaged) the RLR time series for the AP and for the whole Antarctica. The so obtained time series have been analyzed using simple regression in order to estimate a trend and a possible sea-level acceleration. For the AP, the the trend is 1.8 ± 0.2 mm/yr and for the whole Antarctica it is 2.1 ± 0.1 mm/yr (both during 1957-2013). The modeled values of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) obtained with ICE-5G(VM2) using program SELEN, range between -0.7 and -1.6 mm/yr, showing that the sea-level trend recorded by tide gauges is strongly influenced by GIA. Subtracting the average GIA contribution (-1.1 mm/yr) to observed sea-level trend from the two stacks, we obtain 3.2 and 2.9 mm/yr for Antarctica and AP respectively, which are interpreted as the effect of current ice melting and steric ocean contributions. By the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method, we have detected different oscillations embedded in the sea-level signals for Antarctica and AP. This confirms previously recognized connections between the sea-level variations in Antarctica and ocean modes like the ENSO.

Time dependent wind fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chelton, D. B.

1986-01-01

Two tasks were performed: (1) determination of the accuracy of Seasat scatterometer, altimeter, and scanning multichannel microwave radiometer measurements of wind speed; and (2) application of Seasat altimeter measurements of sea level to study the spatial and temporal variability of geostrophic flow in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The results of the first task have identified systematic errors in wind speeds estimated by all three satellite sensors. However, in all cases the errors are correctable and corrected wind speeds agree between the three sensors to better than 1 ms sup -1 in 96-day 2 deg. latitude by 6 deg. longitude averages. The second task has resulted in development of a new technique for using altimeter sea level measurements to study the temporal variability of large scale sea level variations. Application of the technique to the Antarctic Circumpolar Current yielded new information about the ocean circulation in this region of the ocean that is poorly sampled by conventional ship-based measurements.

Model of modern dynamic deposition in the east China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Fugen

1989-09-01

Since the last rising of sea level, two branches of the Kuroshio, the Huanghai (Yellow Sea) coastal current (HCC; mainly cold water mass) and the Changjiang River outflow have controlled the modern dynamic deposition in the East China Sea. There are three depositing areas on the sea-bed under the above currents: a relict sand area un der the Taiwan Warm Current and the Huanghai Warm Current at the south-eastern area, the about 60 km2 round mud bank under the Huanghai Coastal Current at the northern area and the large subaqueous delta of mainly fine sand and silt under the Changjiang discharge flow in its estuary and the large narrow mud bank under the Zhejiang-Fujian Coastal Current, another round mud bank under the Changjiang discharge flow off Hangzhou Bay. The relict sand area has a coarsesand block under the Taiwan Warm Current bypassing Taiwan at the northern part of the island. The two round mud banks were formed in relatively static states by an anticlockwise converging cyclonic eddy. The coarsesand block was formed by a clockwise diverging cyclonic eddy. This new dynamic deposition theory can be used to explain not only the dynamic deposition process of clay, but also the patchy distribution of sediments on the shelves of the world ocean s.

White Paper: Summary of the NOAA Workshop - Ecological Effect of Sea Level Rise in the Florida Panhandle and Coastal Alabama: Research and Modeling Needs

EPA Science Inventory

The Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research (CSCOR) is addressing current and future impacts to ecological systems due to the long term effect of sea level rise due to climate change and subsidence on coastal ecosystems through the peer-reviewed research program, the Ecologic...

The use of piezocone tests for high-resolution stratigraphy of Quaternary sediment sequences in the Brazilian coast.

PubMed

de Mio, Giuliano; Giacheti, Heraldo L

2007-03-01

Correlations between mapping units of costal sedimentary basin and interpretation of piezocone test results are presented and discussed based on examples from Caravelas strandplain, (State of Bahia), Paranaguá (State of Paraná) and Guarujá bays (State of São Paulo), Brazil. Recognizing that the sedimentary environment was mainly controlled by sea level fluctuations led to the interpretation of transgressive and regressive sedimentary sequences, which is in a good agreement with the sea level fluctuation curves currently accepted for these regions. The interpretation of piezocone test results shows that the sedimentary sequences of Caravelas and Guarujá sites are similar and they have a good correlation to the sea level fluctuation curve accepted for Salvador region, State of Bahia. On the other hand, the piezocone test results from Paranaguá site indicate a different sedimentary sequence from the previous ones, relating to the sea level fluctuation curve accepted for Paranaguá region. The results show the high applicability of piezocone testing for stratigraphical logging and suggest that it is possible to integrate it with other current techniques used for paleo-environmental studies in Brazil, in accordance with recent approaches used in international research on the subject.

Impacts of Sea-Level Rise and Human Activity on a Tropical Continental Shelf, RN State, NE Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vital, H.; Barros Pereira, T. R.; Lira, H. F.; Tabosa, W. F.; Eichler, P.; Stattegger, K.; Sen Gupta, B. K.; Gomes, M. P.; Nogueira, M. L. D. S.; Pierri, G. C. S.

2014-12-01

The northeastern Brazilian, tropical coast-shelf system along the Atlantic Ocean is a sediment-starved zone, because of low relief, small drainage basins, and a semiarid climate. This work presents the major results of a study of environmental changes, particularly those related to Holocene sea-level rise, affecting the coast and shallow waters of Rio Grande do Norte (RN) State, NE Brazil. The methods included bottom-sediment characterization, bioindicator tracking, and integrated shallow-water geophysical investigation. This coastline is marked by active sea cliffs carved into tablelands alternating with reef- or dune-barrier sections, beach rocks and lagoons, whereas the shelf is a narrow, very shallow, and highly energetic system. Overall, the area is under the natural influence of tides (with a semidiurnal mesotidal regime) and the anthropogenic influence of salt exploration, oil industry, shrimp farms, tourism, and wind-farms. Sedimentation during the Holocene has been controlled mainly by sea-level variation, longshore currents, and the advance and westward propagation of active dunes along the coast. As in other areas around the world, growing numbers of permanent and seasonal residents choose to live at or near the ocean. Coastal erosion is a cause for concern along many Brazilian beaches, and several erosion hot spots are already recognized in RN State. Curves of Holocene relative sea-level variation were established for RN State, but the absence of long-term oceanographic observations in the last centuries or that of detailed altimetry maps hinders the evaluation of different risk scenarios at the local level. Nevertheless, impacts of the current sea-level rise and human activity can be observed along the RN coastal-shelf system. Particular aspects of the study, such as oil-spill monitoring, coastal-water sewage contamination, and coastal erosion, will be highlighted.

Corals record long-term Leeuwin current variability including Ningaloo Niño/Niña since 1795

PubMed Central

Zinke, J.; Rountrey, A.; Feng, M.; Xie, S.-P.; Dissard, D.; Rankenburg, K.; Lough, J.M.; McCulloch, M.T.

2014-01-01

Variability of the Leeuwin current (LC) off Western Australia is a footprint of interannual and decadal climate variations in the tropical Indo-Pacific. La Niña events often result in a strengthened LC, high coastal sea levels and unusually warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), termed Ningaloo Niño. The rarity of such extreme events and the response of the southeastern Indian Ocean to regional and remote climate forcing are poorly understood owing to the lack of long-term records. Here we use well-replicated coral SST records from within the path of the LC, together with a reconstruction of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation to hindcast historical SST and LC strength from 1795 to 2010. We show that interannual and decadal variations in SST and LC strength characterized the past 215 years and that the most extreme sea level and SST anomalies occurred post 1980. These recent events were unprecedented in severity and are likely aided by accelerated global ocean warming and sea-level rise. PMID:24686736

New and improved data products from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, Andrew; Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Gordon, Kathy; Hibbert, Angela; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Rickards, Lesley; Tamisiea, Mark; Williams, Simon

2015-04-01

The Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) is the internationally recognised global sea level data bank for long term sea level change information from tide gauges. Established in 1933, the PSMSL continues to be responsible for the collection, publication, analysis and interpretation of sea level data. The PSMSL operates under the auspices of the International Council for Science (ICSU) and is one of the main data centres for both the International Association for the Physical Sciences of the Oceans (IAPSO) and the International Association of Geodesy (IAG). The PSMSL continues to work closely with other members of the sea level community through the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission's Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). Currently, the PSMSL data bank for monthly and annual sea level data holds over 65,000 station-years of data from over 2200 stations. Data from each site are carefully quality controlled and, wherever possible, reduced to a common datum, whose stability is monitored through a network of geodetic benchmarks. Last year, the PSMSL also made available a data bank of measurements taken from in-situ ocean bottom pressure recorders from over 60 locations across the globe. Here, we present an overview of the data available at the PSMSL, and describe some of the ongoing work that aims to provide more information to users of our data. In particular, we describe the ongoing work with the Système d'Observation du Niveau des Eaux Littorales (SONEL) to use measurements from continuous GNSS records located near tide gauges to provide PSMSL data within a geocentric reference frame. We also highlight changes to the method used to present estimated sea level trends to account for seasonal cycles and autocorrelation in the data, and provide an estimate of the error of the trend.

Potential effects of sea-level rise on coastal wetlands in southeastern Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Glick, Patty; Clough, Jonathan; Polaczyk, Amy; Couvillion, Brady R.; Nunley, Brad

2013-01-01

Coastal Louisiana wetlands contain about 37% of the estuarine herbaceous marshes in the conterminous United States. The long-term stability of coastal wetlands is often a function of a wetland's ability to maintain elevation equilibrium with mean sea level through processes such as primary production and sediment accretion. However, Louisiana has sustained more coastal wetland loss than all other states in the continental United States combined due to a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors, including sea-level rise. This study investigates the potential impact of current and accelerating sea-level rise rates on key coastal wetland habitats in southeastern Louisiana using the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM). Model calibration was conducted using a 1956–2007 observation period and hindcasting results predicted 35% versus observed 39% total marsh loss. Multiple sea-level-rise scenarios were then simulated for the period of 2007–2100. Results indicate a range of potential wetland losses by 2100, from an additional 2,188.97 km2 (218,897 ha, 9% of the 2007 wetland area) under the lowest sea-level-rise scenario (0.34 m), to a potential loss of 5,875.27 km2 (587,527 ha, 24% of the 2007 wetland area) in the highest sea-level-rise scenario (1.9 m). Model results suggest that one area of particular concern is the potential vulnerability of the region's baldcypress-water tupelo (Taxodium distichum-Nyssa aquatica) swamp habitat, much of which is projected to become permanently flooded (affecting regeneration) under all modeled scenarios for sea-level rise. These findings will aid in the development of ecosystem management plans that support the processes and conditions that result in sustainable coastal ecosystems.

Adapting to Rising Sea Level: A Florida Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkinson, Randall W.

2009-07-01

Global climate change and concomitant rising sea level will have a profound impact on Florida's coastal and marine systems. Sea-level rise will increase erosion of beaches, cause saltwater intrusion into water supplies, inundate coastal marshes and other important habitats, and make coastal property more vulnerable to erosion and flooding. Yet most coastal areas are currently managed under the premise that sea-level rise is not significant and the shorelines are static or can be fixed in place by engineering structures. The new reality of sea-level rise and extreme weather due to climate change requires a new style of planning and management to protect resources and reduce risk to humans. Scientists must: (1) assess existing coastal vulnerability to address short term management issues and (2) model future landscape change and develop sustainable plans to address long term planning and management issues. Furthermore, this information must be effectively transferred to planners, managers, and elected officials to ensure their decisions are based upon the best available information. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the details of rising sea level and climate change, development decisions are being made today which commit public and private investment in real estate and associated infrastructure. With a design life of 30 yrs to 75 yrs or more, many of these investments are on a collision course with rising sea level and the resulting impacts will be significant. In the near term, the utilization of engineering structures may be required, but these are not sustainable and must ultimately yield to "managed withdrawal" programs if higher sea-level elevations or rates of rise are forthcoming. As an initial step towards successful adaptation, coastal management and planning documents (i.e., comprehensive plans) must be revised to include reference to climate change and rising sea-level.

The Cosmonaut Sea Wedge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Solli, K.; Kuvaas, B.; Kristoffersen, Y.; Leitchenkov, G.; Guseva, J.; Gandyukhin, V.

2007-01-01

A set of multi-channel seismic profiles (~15000 km) acquired by Russia, Norway and Australia has been used to investigate the depositional evolution of the Cosmonaut Sea margin of East Antarctica. We recognize a regional sediment wedge below the upper part of the continental rise. The wedge, herein termed the Cosmonaut Sea Wedge, is positioned stratigraphically underneath the inferred glaciomarine section and extends for at least 1200 km along the continental margin and from 80 to about 250 km seaward or to the north. Lateral variations in the growth pattern of the wedge indicate several overlapping depocentres, which at their distal northern end are flanked by elongated mounded drifts and contourite sheets. The internal stratification of the mounded drift deposits suggests that westward flowing bottom currents reworked the marginal deposits. The action of these currents together with sea-level changes is considered to have controlled the growth of the wedge. We interpret the Cosmonaut Sea Wedge as a composite feature comprising several bottom current reworked fan systems.

Predicting Trophic Interactions and Habitat Utilization in the California Current Ecosystem

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

on trophic interactions affecting habitat utilization and foraging patterns of California sea lions (CSL) in the California Current Large Marine...middle (sardine and anchovy) and higher (sea lions ) trophic level species. To this end, our numerical experiments are designed to isolate patterns of...NEMURO) embedded in a regional ocean circulation model (ROMS), and both coupled with a multi- species individual-based model (IBM) for forage fish

Contamination of the cement raw material in a quarry site by seawater intrusion, Darica-Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camur, M. Zeki; Doyuran, Vedat

2008-02-01

The open pit mining nearby shoreline is planned to be extended into below sea level in order to use additional reserves of the cement raw material (marl). The raw material is currently contaminated by seawater intrusion below a depth of 20 m up to the distance of 90 m from shoreline. Seawater intrusion related contamination of the material used for the cement production was investigated by means of diffusion process for the future two below sea level mining scenarios covering 43 years of period. According to the results, chloride concentrations higher than the tolerable limit of a cement raw material would be present in the material about 10-25 cm inward from each discontinuity surface, controlling groundwater flow, located between 170 and 300 m landward from the shoreline at below sea level mining depths of 0-30 m. The estimations suggest that total amounts of dilution required for the contaminated raw material to reduce its concentration level to the tolerance limit with uncontaminated raw material are about 113- to 124-fold for scenario I (13 years of below sea level mining after 30 years of above sea level mining) and about 126- to 138-fold for scenario II (43 years of simultaneous above and below sea level minings).

Global climate change and sea level rise: potential losses of intertidal habitat for shorebirds

Treesearch

H. Galbraith; R. Jones; R. Park; J. Clough; S. Herrod-Julius; B. Harrington; G. Page

2005-01-01

Global warming is expected to result in an acceleration of current rates of sea level rise, inundating many low-lying coastal and intertidal areas. This could have important implications for organisms that depend on these sites, including shorebirds that rely on them for foraging habitat during their migrations and in winter. We modeled the potential changes in the...

Possible impacts of sea level rise on disease transmission and potential adaptation strategies, a review.

PubMed

Dvorak, Ana C; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M; Galletti, Andrea; Benzecry, Bernardo; Malone, Hannah; Boguszewski, Vicki; Bird, Jason

2018-07-01

Sea levels are projected to rise in response to climate change, causing the intrusion of sea water into land. In flat coastal regions, this would generate an increase in shallow water covered areas with limited circulation. This scenario raises a concern about the consequences it could have on human health, specifically the possible impacts on disease transmission. In this review paper we identified three categories of diseases which are associated with water and whose transmission can be affected by sea level rise. These categories include: mosquitoborne diseases, naturalized organisms (Vibrio spp. and toxic algae), and fecal-oral diseases. For each disease category, we propose comprehensive adaptation strategies that would help minimize possible health risks. Finally, the City of Key West, Florida is analyzed as a case study, due to its inherent vulnerability to sea level rise. Current and projected adaptation techniques are discussed as well as the integration of additional recommendations, focused on disease transmission control. Given that sea level rise will likely continue into the future, the promotion and implementation of positive adaptation strategies is necessary to ensure community resilience. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Short-term Influences on Suspended Particulate Matter Distribution in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: Satellite and Model Observations.

PubMed

D'Sa, Eurico J; Ko, Dong S

2008-07-15

Energetic meteorological events such as frontal passages and hurricanes often impact coastal regions in the northern Gulf of Mexico that influence geochemical processes in the region. Satellite remote sensing data such as winds from QuikSCAT, suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentrations derived from SeaWiFS and the outputs (sea level and surface ocean currents) of a nested navy coastal ocean model (NCOM) were combined to assess the effects of frontal passages between 23-28 March 2005 on the physical properties and the SPM characteristics in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Typical changes in wind speed and direction associated with frontal passages were observed in the latest 12.5 km wind product from QuikSCAT with easterly winds before the frontal passage undergoing systematic shifts in direction and speed and turning northerly, northwesterly during a weak and a strong front on 23 and 27 March, respectively. A quantitative comparison of model sea level results with tide gauge observations suggest better correlations near the delta than in the western part of the Gulf with elevated sea levels along the coast before the frontal passage and a large drop in sea level following the frontal passage on 27 March. Model results of surface currents suggested strong response to wind forcing with westward and onshore currents before the frontal passage reversing into eastward, southeastward direction over a six day period from 23 to 28 March 2005. Surface SPM distribution derived from SeaWiFS ocean color data for two clear days on 23 and 28 March 2005 indicated SPM plumes to be oriented with the current field with increasing concentrations in nearshore waters due to resuspension and discharge from the rivers and bays and its seaward transport following the frontal passage. The backscattering spectral slope γ, a parameter sensitive to particle size distribution also indicated lower γ values (larger particles) in nearshore waters that decreased offshore (smaller particles). The use of both satellite and model results revealed the strong interactions between physical processes and the surface particulate field in response to the frontal passage in a large riverdominated coastal margin.

Improvement of TOPEX/POSEIDON and Jason-1 Geophysical Data Record for Global Change Studies and Coastal Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shum, C. K.

1999-01-01

The Earth's modem climate change has been characterized by interlinked changes in temperature, CO2, ice sheets and sea level. Global sea level change is a critical indicator for study of contemporary climate change. Sea level rise appears to have accelerated since the ice sheet retreats have stopped some 5000 years ago and it is estimated that the sea level rise has been approx. 15 cm over the last century. Contemporary radar altimeters represent the only technique capable of monitoring global sea level change with accuracy approaching 1 mm/yr and with a temporal scale of days and a spatial scale of 100 km or longer. This report highlights the major accomplishments of the TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) Extended Mission and Jason-1 science investigation. The primary objectives of the investigation include the calibration and improvement of T/P and Jason-1 altimeter data for global sea level change and coastal tide and circulation studies. The scientific objectives of the investigation include: (1) the calibration and improvement of T/P and Jason-1 data as a reference measurement system for the accurate cross-linking with other altimeter systems (Seasat, Geosat, ERS-1, ERS-2, GFO-1, and Envisat), (2) the improved determination and the associated uncertainties of the long-term (15-year) global mean sea level change using multiple altimeters, (3) the characterization of the sea level change by analyses of independent data, including tide gauges, sea surface temperature, and (4) the improvement coastal radar altimetry for studies including coastal ocean tide modeling and coastal circulation. Major accomplishments of the investigation include the development of techniques for low-cost radar altimeter absolute calibration (including the associated GPS-buoy technology), coastal ocean tide modeling, and the linking of multiple altimeter systems and the resulting determination of the 15-year (1985-1999) global mean sea level variations. The current rate of 15-year sea level rise observed by multiple satellite altimetry is +2.3 +/- 1.2 mm/yr, which is in general agreement with the analysis of sparsely distributed tide gauge measurements for the same data span, and represents the first such determination of sea level change in its kind.

Ecosystem Structure Changes in the Turkish Seas as a Response to Overfishing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gazihan Akoglu, Ayse; Salihoglu, Baris; Akoglu, Ekin; Kideys, Ahmet E.

2013-04-01

Human population in Turkey has grown more than five-fold since its establishment in 1923 and more than 73 million people are currently living in the country. Turkey is surrounded by partially connected seas (the Black Sea, the Sea of Marmara, the Aegean Sea and the Mediterranean Sea) each of which has significantly different productivity levels and ecosystem characteristics. Increasing human population with its growing socio-economic needs has generated an intensive fishing pressure on the fish stocks in its exclusive economic zone. Fishing grounds in the surrounding seas were exploited with different fishing intensities depending upon their productivity level and catch rates. Hence, the responses of these different ecosystems to overfishing have been realized differently. In this study, changes of the ecosystem structures in the Turkish Seas were comparatively investigated by ecosystem indices such as Marine Trophic Index (MTI), Fishing in Balance (FiB) and Primary Production Required (PPR) to assess the degree of sustainability of the fish stocks for future generations.

A model of water and sediment balance as determinants of relative sea level rise in contemporary and future deltas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tessler, Zachary D.; Vörösmarty, Charles J.; Overeem, Irina; Syvitski, James P. M.

2018-03-01

Modern deltas are dependent on human-mediated freshwater and sediment fluxes. Changes to these fluxes impact delta biogeophysical functioning and affect the long-term sustainability of these landscapes for human and for natural systems. Here we present contemporary estimates of long-term mean sediment balance and relative sea level rise across 46 global deltas. We model scenarios of contemporary and future water resource management schemes and hydropower infrastructure in upstream river basins to explore how changing sediment fluxes impact relative sea level rise in delta systems. Model results show that contemporary sediment fluxes, anthropogenic drivers of land subsidence, and sea level rise result in delta relative sea level rise rates that average 6.8 mm/y. Assessment of impacts of planned and under-construction dams on relative sea level rise rates suggests increases on the order of 1 mm/y in deltas with new upstream construction. Sediment fluxes are estimated to decrease by up to 60% in the Danube and 21% in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna if all currently planned dams are constructed. Reduced sediment retention on deltas caused by increased river channelization and management has a larger impact, increasing relative sea level rise on average by nearly 2 mm/y. Long-term delta sustainability requires a more complete understanding of how geophysical and anthropogenic change impact delta geomorphology. Local and regional strategies for sustainable delta management that focus on local and regional drivers of change, especially groundwater and hydrocarbon extraction and upstream dam construction, can be highly impactful even in the context of global climate-induced sea level rise.

Demonstration of a Real Time Capability to Produce Tidal Heights and Currents for Naval Operational Use: A Cast Study for the West Coast of Africa (Liberia)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mehra, Avichal; Anantharaj, Valentine; Payne, Steve; Kantha, Lakshmi

1996-01-01

This report documents an existing capability to produce operationally relevant products on sea level and currents from a tides/storm surge model for any coastal region around the world within 48 hours from the time of the request. The model is ready for transition to the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO) for potential contingency use anywhere around the world. A recent application to naval operations offshore Liberia illustrates this. Mississippi State University, in collaboration with the University of Colorado and NAVOCEANO, successfully deployed the Colorado University Rapidly Relocatable Nestable Tides and Storm Surge (CURReNTSS) model that predicts sea surface height, tidal currents and storm surge, and provided operational products on tidal sea level and currents in the littoral region off south-western coast of Africa. This report summarizes the results of this collaborative effort in an actual contingency use of the relocatable model, summarizes the lessons learned, and provides recommendations for further evaluation and transition of this modeling capability to operational use.

Visible and Thermal Imaging of Sea Ice and Open Water from Coast Guard Arctic Domain Awareness Flights

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

dropsondes, micro- aircraft), cloud top/base heights Arctic Ocean Surface Temperature project Steele Buoy drops for SLP , SST, SSS, & surface velocity...Colón & Vancas (NIC) Drop buoys for SLP , temperature and surface velocity Waves & Fetch in the MIZ Thompson SWIFTS buoys measuring wave energy...Expendable CTD, AXCP= Air Expendable Current Profiler, SLP = Sea Level atmospheric Pressure, SST= Seas Surface Temperature, A/C= aircraft, FSD= Floe Size Distribution, SIC=Sea Ice Concentration

Final report for sea-level rise response modeling for San Francisco Bay estuary tidal marshes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Takekawa, John Y.; Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Spragens, Kyle A.; Swanson, Kathleen M.; Drexler, Judith Z.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Overton, Cory T.; Casazza, Michael L.

2013-01-01

The International Panel on Climate Change has identified coastal ecosystems as areas that will be disproportionally affected by climate change. Current sea-level rise projections range widely with 0.57 to 1.9 meters increase in mea sea level by 2100. The expected accelerated rate of sea-level rise through the 21st century will put many coastal ecosystems at risk, especially those in topographically low-gradient areas. We assessed marsh accretion and plant community state changes through 2100 at 12 tidal salt marshes around San Francisco Bay estuary with a sea-level rise response model. Detailed ground elevation, vegetation, and water level data were collected at all sites between 2008 and 2011 and used as model inputs. Sediment cores (taken by Callaway and others, 2012) at four sites around San Francisco Bay estuary were used to estimate accretion rates. A modification of the Callaway and others (1996) model, the Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER), was utilized to run sea-level rise response models for all sites. With a mean sea level rise of 1.24 m by 2100, WARMER projected that the vast majority, 95.8 percent (1,942 hectares), of marsh area in our study will lose marsh plant communities by 2100 and to transition to a relative elevation range consistent with mudflat habitat. Three marshes were projected to maintain marsh vegetation to 2100, but they only composed 4.2 percent (85 hectares) of the total marsh area surveyed.

Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045.

PubMed

Dahl, Kristina A; Fitzpatrick, Melanie F; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika

2017-01-01

Tidal flooding is among the most tangible present-day effects of global sea level rise. Here, we utilize a set of NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to evaluate the potential impact of future sea level rise on the frequency and severity of tidal flooding. Using the 2001-2015 time period as a baseline, we first determine how often tidal flooding currently occurs. Using localized sea level rise projections based on the Intermediate-Low, Intermediate-High, and Highest projections from the U.S. National Climate Assessment, we then determine the frequency and extent of such flooding at these locations for two near-term time horizons: 2030 and 2045. We show that increases in tidal flooding will be substantial and nearly universal at the 52 locations included in our analysis. Long before areas are permanently inundated, the steady creep of sea level rise will force many communities to grapple with chronic high tide flooding in the next 15 to 30 years.

Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045

PubMed Central

Fitzpatrick, Melanie F.; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika

2017-01-01

Tidal flooding is among the most tangible present-day effects of global sea level rise. Here, we utilize a set of NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to evaluate the potential impact of future sea level rise on the frequency and severity of tidal flooding. Using the 2001–2015 time period as a baseline, we first determine how often tidal flooding currently occurs. Using localized sea level rise projections based on the Intermediate-Low, Intermediate-High, and Highest projections from the U.S. National Climate Assessment, we then determine the frequency and extent of such flooding at these locations for two near-term time horizons: 2030 and 2045. We show that increases in tidal flooding will be substantial and nearly universal at the 52 locations included in our analysis. Long before areas are permanently inundated, the steady creep of sea level rise will force many communities to grapple with chronic high tide flooding in the next 15 to 30 years. PMID:28158209

Geomagnetic South Atlantic Anomaly and global sea level rise: A direct connection?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Santis, A.; Qamili, E.; Spada, G.; Gasperini, P.

2012-01-01

We highlight the existence of an intriguing and to date unreported relationship between the surface area of the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) of the geomagnetic field and the current trend in global sea level rise. These two geophysical variables have been growing coherently during the last three centuries, thus strongly suggesting a causal relationship supported by some statistical tests. The monotonic increase of the SAA surface area since 1600 may have been associated with an increased inflow of radiation energy through the inner Van Allen belt with a consequent warming of the Earth's atmosphere and finally global sea level rise. An alternative suggestive and original explanation is also offered, in which pressure changes at the core-mantle boundary cause surface deformations and relative sea level variations. Although we cannot establish a clear connection between SAA dynamics and global warming, the strong correlation between the former and global sea level supports the idea that global warming may be at least partly controlled by deep Earth processes triggering geomagnetic phenomena, such as the South Atlantic Anomaly, on a century time scale.

Paleo-environment Simulation using GIS based on Shell Mounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uchiyama, T.; Asanuma, I.; Harada, E.

2016-02-01

Paleo-coastlines are simulated using the geographic information system (GIS) based on the shell mounds as the paleo-environment in the Tsubaki-no-umi, Ocean of Camellia in Japanese, the paleo-ocean, in Japan. The shell mounds, which are introduced in the paleo-study in the class history in junior and senior high, are used to estimate the paleo-coastlines. The paleo-coastlines are simulated as the function of sea levels relative to the current sea level for 6000 to 3000 BP on the digital elevation map of the GIS. The polygon of the simulated sea level height of 10 m extracted the shell mounds during 6000 to 5500 BP as the result of the spatial operation, and exhibited the consistency with the previous studies. The simulated sea level height of 5.5 m showed the paleo-coastline during 3600 to 3220 BP, while the Tsubaki-no-Umiturned into the brackish water lake, partly isolated from the ocean. The simulation of sea levels with GIS could be implemented to the class in the junior and senior high school with minimum efforts of teachers with the available computer and software environments.

Advanced Regional and Decadal Predictions of Coastal Inundation for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, B.; Corbett, D. R.; Donnelly, J. P.; Kemp, A.; Lin, N.; Lindeman, K.; Mann, M. E.; Peltier, W. R.; Rahmstorf, S.

2013-12-01

Future inundation of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts will depend upon sea-level rise and the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones, each of which will be affected by climate change. Through ongoing, collaborative research we are employing new interdisciplinary approaches to bring about a step change in the reliability of predictions of such inundation. The rate of sea level rise along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts increased throughout the 20th century. Whilst there is widespread agreement that it continue to accelerate during the 21st century, great uncertainty surrounds its magnitude and geographic variability. Key uncertainties include the role of continental ice sheets, mountain glaciers, and ocean density changes. Insufficient understanding of these complex physical processes precludes accurate prediction of sea-level rise. New approaches using semi-empirical models that relate instrumental records of climate and sea-level rise have projected up to 2 m of sea-level rise by AD 2100. But the time span of instrumental sea-level records is insufficient to adequately constrain the climate:sea-level relationship. We produced new, high-resolution proxy sea-level reconstructions to provide crucial additional constraints to such semi-empirical models. Our dataset spans the alternation between the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly' and 'Little Ice Age'. Before the models can provide appropriate data for coastal management and planning, they must be complemented with regional estimates of sea-level rise. Therefore, the proxy sea-level data has been collected from four study areas (Connecticut, New Jersey, North Carolina and Florida) to accommodate the required extent of regional variability. In the case of inundation arising from tropical cyclones, the historical and observational records are insufficient for predicting their nature and recurrence, because they are such extreme and rare events. Moreover, future storm surges will be superimposed on background sea-level rise. To overcome these problems, we coupled regional sea-level rise projections with hurricane simulations and storm surge models to map coastal inundation for the current climate and the best and worst case climate scenarios of the IPCC AR4. With agency, NGO, and business partners, we have integrated these findings into coastal policy initiatives, including the first ever adoption of sea level Adaptation Action Areas in a Florida city land use plan.

Combustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet

PubMed Central

Winkelmann, Ricarda; Levermann, Anders; Ridgwell, Andy; Caldeira, Ken

2015-01-01

The Antarctic Ice Sheet stores water equivalent to 58 m in global sea-level rise. We show in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model that burning the currently attainable fossil fuel resources is sufficient to eliminate the ice sheet. With cumulative fossil fuel emissions of 10,000 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC), Antarctica is projected to become almost ice-free with an average contribution to sea-level rise exceeding 3 m per century during the first millennium. Consistent with recent observations and simulations, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes unstable with 600 to 800 GtC of additional carbon emissions. Beyond this additional carbon release, the destabilization of ice basins in both West and East Antarctica results in a threshold increase in global sea level. Unabated carbon emissions thus threaten the Antarctic Ice Sheet in its entirety with associated sea-level rise that far exceeds that of all other possible sources. PMID:26601273

Combustion of available fossil-fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkelmann, R.; Levermann, A.; Ridgwell, A.; Caldeira, K.

2015-12-01

The Antarctic Ice Sheet stores water equivalent to 58 meters in global sea-level rise. Here we show in simulations with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model that burning the currently attainable fossil-fuel resources is sufficient to eliminate the ice sheet. With cumulative fossil-fuel emissions of 10 000 GtC, Antarctica is projected to become almost ice-free with an average contribution to sea-level rise exceeding 3 meters per century during the first millennium. Consistent with recent observations and simulations, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes unstable with 600 to 800 GtC of additional carbon emissions. Beyond this additional carbon release, the destabilization of ice basins in both West- and East Antarctica results in a threshold-increase in global sea level. Unabated carbon emissions thus threaten the Antarctic Ice Sheet in its entirety with associated sea-level rise that far exceeds that of all other possible sources.

Combustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

PubMed

Winkelmann, Ricarda; Levermann, Anders; Ridgwell, Andy; Caldeira, Ken

2015-09-01

The Antarctic Ice Sheet stores water equivalent to 58 m in global sea-level rise. We show in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model that burning the currently attainable fossil fuel resources is sufficient to eliminate the ice sheet. With cumulative fossil fuel emissions of 10,000 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC), Antarctica is projected to become almost ice-free with an average contribution to sea-level rise exceeding 3 m per century during the first millennium. Consistent with recent observations and simulations, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes unstable with 600 to 800 GtC of additional carbon emissions. Beyond this additional carbon release, the destabilization of ice basins in both West and East Antarctica results in a threshold increase in global sea level. Unabated carbon emissions thus threaten the Antarctic Ice Sheet in its entirety with associated sea-level rise that far exceeds that of all other possible sources.

Reconstructing Mid- to Late Holocene Sea-Level Change from Coral Microatolls, French Polynesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallmann, N.; Camoin, G.; Eisenhauer, A.; Vella, C.; Samankassou, E.; Botella, A.; Milne, G. A.; Pothin, V.; Dussouillez, P.; Fleury, J.

2017-12-01

Coral microatolls are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the mean low water springs level, and can be considered therefore as high-precision recorders of sea-level change. They are of pivotal importance to resolving the rates and amplitudes of millennial-to-century scale changes during periods of relative climate stability such as the Mid- to Late Holocene, which serves as an important baseline of natural variability prior to the Anthropocene. It provides therefore a unique opportunity to study coastal response to sea-level rise, even if the rates of sea-level rise during the Mid- to Late Holocene were lower than the current rates and those expected in the near future. Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level changes in French Polynesia encompassing the last 6,000 years were reconstructed based on the coupling between absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral microatolls and their precise positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements. The twelve studied islands represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets (far-field), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. A sea-level rise of less than 1 m is recorded between 6 and 3-3.5 ka, and is followed by a gradual fall in sea level that started around 2.5 ka and persisted until the past few centuries. In addition, growth pattern analysis of coral microatolls allows the reconstruction of low-amplitude, high-frequency sea-level change on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. The reconstructed sea-level curve extends the Tahiti last deglacial sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to fit far-field deglacial records [Bassett et al., 2005, Science, 309, 925-928].

Reconstructing Mid- to Late Holocene sea-level change from coral microatolls, French Polynesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallmann, N.; Camoin, G.; Eisenhauer, A.; Vella, C.; Samankassou, E.; Botella, A.; Milne, G. A.; Pothin, V.; Dussouillez, P.; Fleury, J.

2016-12-01

Coral microatolls are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the mean low water springs level, and can be considered therefore as high-precision recorders of sea-level change. They are of pivotal importance to resolving the rates and amplitudes of millennial-to-century scale changes during periods of relative climate stability such as the Mid- to Late Holocene, which serves as an important baseline of natural variability prior to the industrial revolution. It provides therefore a unique opportunity to study coastal response to sea-level rise, even if the rates of sea-level rise during the Mid- to Late Holocene were lower than the current rates and those expected in the near future. Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level change in French Polynesia was reconstructed based on the coupling between absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral microatolls and their precise positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements. The twelve studied islands represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets (far-field), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. A sea-level rise of less than 1 m is recorded between 6 and 3-3.5 ka, and is followed by a gradual fall in sea level that started around 2.5 ka and persisted until the past few centuries. In addition, growth pattern analysis of coral microatolls allows the reconstruction of low-amplitude, high-frequency sea-level change on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. The reconstructed sea-level curve extends the Tahiti last deglacial sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to fit far-field deglacial records [Bassett et al., 2005, Science, 309, 925-928].

Hydrological state of the Large Aral Sea in the fall season of 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izhitskiy, Alexander; Zavialov, Peter

2014-05-01

We report here the results of the latest expedition of the Shirshov Institute to the Aral Sea. The survey encompassed 8 field days in October-November, 2013. Direct measurements of thermohaline characteristics and water currents were conducted in the western basin of the Large Aral Sea during the expedition. Vertical profiles of temperature and salinity were obtained using a CTD profiler at 9 stations, situated on two cross-sections of the western basin. Four mooring stations equipped with current meters, as well as pressure gauges, were deployed for 4-6 days on the slopes of the deepest portion of the western basin. A portable automatic meteorological station, continuously recording the variability of wind and principal meteorological parameters, was installed near the mooring sites. Analysis of the current measurements data along with the meteorological data records demonstrated the current velocity and level anomalies responded energetically to winds. Correlation analysis of the velocity series versus the wind stress allowed to quantify the response of the system to the wind forcing. Together with the similar results of more earlier surveys, recently collected data shows that the mean surface circulation of the western basin remains anti-cyclonic under the predominant winds. Character of the interannual variability of salinity values in the Aral Sea water manifested increase in the surface layer during last 5 years. On the other hand, salinity values in the bottom layer appear to be decreased due to ceasing of the influence of the interbasin water exchange since 2010. Water level of the Large Aral Sea is still falling. Assessment of the on-going changes holds promise to help predicting the subsequent state of the Aral Sea region.

How Many Seals Were There? The Global Shelf Loss during the Last Glacial Maximum and Its Effect on the Size and Distribution of Grey Seal Populations

PubMed Central

Boehme, Lars; Thompson, Dave; Fedak, Mike; Bowen, Don; Hammill, Mike O.; Stenson, Garry B.

2012-01-01

Predicting how marine mammal populations respond to habitat changes will be essential for developing conservation management strategies in the 21st century. Responses to previous environmental change may be informative in the development of predictive models. Here we describe the likely effects of the last ice age on grey seal population size and distribution. We use satellite telemetry data to define grey seal foraging habitat in terms of the temperature and depth ranges exploited by the contemporary populations. We estimate the available extent of such habitat in the North Atlantic at present (between 1.42·106 km2 and 2.07·106 km2) and at the last glacial maximum (between 4.74·104 km2 and 2.11·105 km2); taking account of glacial and seasonal sea-ice coverage, estimated reductions of sea-level (123 m) and sea surface temperature hind-casts. Most of the extensive continental shelf waters (North Sea, Baltic Sea and Scotian Shelf), currently supporting >95% of grey seals, were unavailable during the last glacial maximum. A combination of lower sea-level and extensive ice-sheets, massively increased seasonal sea-ice coverage and southerly extent of cold water would have pushed grey seals into areas with no significant shelf waters. The habitat during the last glacial maximum might have been as small as 3% of today's extent and grey seal populations may have fallen to similarly low numbers. An alternative scenario involving a major change to a pelagic or bathy-pelagic foraging niche cannot be discounted. However, hooded seals currently dominate that niche and may have excluded grey seals from such habitat. If as seems likely, the grey seal population fell to very low levels it would have remained low for several thousand years before expanding into current habitats over the past 12,000 years or so. PMID:23300843

Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, T.G.; Wood, N.; Yarnal, B.; Bauer, D.H.

2010-01-01

Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir-Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, Tim G.; Wood, Nathan; Yarnal, Brent; Bauer, Denise H.

2010-01-01

Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir–Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards.

The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovelock, Catherine E.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Friess, Daniel A.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Krauss, Ken W.; Reef, Ruth; Rogers, Kerrylee; Saunders, Megan L.; Sidik, Frida; Swales, Andrew; Saintilan, Neil; Thuyen, Le Xuan; Triet, Tran

2015-01-01

Sea-level rise can threaten the long-term sustainability of coastal communities and valuable ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes and mangroves. Mangrove forests have the capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise and to avoid inundation through vertical accretion of sediments, which allows them to maintain wetland soil elevations suitable for plant growth. The Indo-Pacific region holds most of the world’s mangrove forests, but sediment delivery in this region is declining, owing to anthropogenic activities such as damming of rivers. This decline is of particular concern because the Indo-Pacific region is expected to have variable, but high, rates of future sea-level rise. Here we analyse recent trends in mangrove surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific region using data from a network of surface elevation table instruments. We find that sediment availability can enable mangrove forests to maintain rates of soil-surface elevation gain that match or exceed that of sea-level rise, but for 69 per cent of our study sites the current rate of sea-level rise exceeded the soil surface elevation gain. We also present a model based on our field data, which suggests that mangrove forests at sites with low tidal range and low sediment supply could be submerged as early as 2070.

The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise.

PubMed

Lovelock, Catherine E; Cahoon, Donald R; Friess, Daniel A; Guntenspergen, Glenn R; Krauss, Ken W; Reef, Ruth; Rogers, Kerrylee; Saunders, Megan L; Sidik, Frida; Swales, Andrew; Saintilan, Neil; Thuyen, Le Xuan; Triet, Tran

2015-10-22

Sea-level rise can threaten the long-term sustainability of coastal communities and valuable ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes and mangroves. Mangrove forests have the capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise and to avoid inundation through vertical accretion of sediments, which allows them to maintain wetland soil elevations suitable for plant growth. The Indo-Pacific region holds most of the world's mangrove forests, but sediment delivery in this region is declining, owing to anthropogenic activities such as damming of rivers. This decline is of particular concern because the Indo-Pacific region is expected to have variable, but high, rates of future sea-level rise. Here we analyse recent trends in mangrove surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific region using data from a network of surface elevation table instruments. We find that sediment availability can enable mangrove forests to maintain rates of soil-surface elevation gain that match or exceed that of sea-level rise, but for 69 per cent of our study sites the current rate of sea-level rise exceeded the soil surface elevation gain. We also present a model based on our field data, which suggests that mangrove forests at sites with low tidal range and low sediment supply could be submerged as early as 2070.

Preliminary investigation of the effects of sea-level rise on groundwater levels in New Haven, Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjerklie, David M.; Mullaney, John R.; Stone, Janet R.; Skinner, Brian J.; Ramlow, Matthew A.

2012-01-01

Global sea level rose about 0.56 feet (ft) (170 millimeters (mm)) during the 20th century. Since the 1960s, sea level has risen at Bridgeport, Connecticut, about 0.38 ft (115 mm), at a rate of 0.008 ft (2.56 mm + or - 0.58 mm) per year. With regional subsidence, and with predicted global climate change, sea level is expected to continue to rise along the northeast coast of the United States through the 21st century. Increasing sea levels will cause groundwater levels in coastal areas to rise in order to adjust to the new conditions. Some regional climate models predict wetter climate in the northeastern United States under some scenarios. Scenarios for the resulting higher groundwater levels have the potential to inundate underground infrastructure in lowlying coastal cities. New Haven is a coastal city in Connecticut surrounded and bisected by tidally affected waters. Monitoring of water levels in wells in New Haven from August 2009 to July 2010 indicates the complex effects of urban influence on groundwater levels. The response of groundwater levels to recharge and season varied considerably from well to well. Groundwater temperatures varied seasonally, but were warmer than what was typical for Connecticut, and they seem to reflect the influence of the urban setting, including the effects of conduits for underground utilities. Specific conductance was elevated in many of the wells, indicating the influence of urban activities or seawater in Long Island Sound. A preliminary steady-state model of groundwater flow for part of New Haven was constructed using MODFLOW to simulate current groundwater levels (2009-2010) and future groundwater levels based on scenarios with a rise of 3 ft (0.91 meters (m)) in sea level, which is predicted for the end of the 21st century. An additional simulation was run assuming a 3-ft rise in sea level combined with a 12-percent increase in groundwater recharge. The model was constructed from existing hydrogeologic information for the New Haven area and from new information on groundwater levels collected during October 2009-June 2010. For the scenario with a 3-ft rise in sea level and no increase in recharge, simulated groundwater levels near the coast rose 3 ft; this increased water level tapered off toward a discharge area at the only nontidal stream in the study area. Simulated stream discharge increased at the nontidal stream because of the increased gradient. Although groundwater levels rose, the simulated difference between the groundwater levels in the aquifer and the increased sea level declined, indicating that the depth to the interface between freshwater and saltwater may possibly decline. Simulated water levels were affected by rise in sea level even in areas where the water table was at 17-24 ft (5.2-7.3 m) above current (2011) sea level. For the scenario with increased recharge, simulated groundwater levels were as much as an additional foot higher at some locations in the study area. The results of this preliminary investigation indicate that groundwater levels in coastal areas can be expected to rise and may rise higher if groundwater recharge also increases. This finding has implications for the disposal of stormwater through infiltration, a low-impact development practice designed to improve water quality and reduce overland peak discharge. Other implications include increased risk of basement flooding and increased groundwater seepage into underground sewer pipes and utility corridors in some areas. These implications will present engineering challenges to New Haven and Yale University. The preliminary model developed for this study can be the starting point for further simulation of future alternative scenarios for sea-level rise and recharge. Further simulations could identify those areas of New Haven where infrastructure may be at greatest risk from rising levels of groundwater. The simulations described in this report have limitations due to the preliminary scope of the work. Approaches to improve simulations include but are not limited to incorporating: * The variable density of seawater into the model in order to understand the current and future location of the interface between freshwater and saltwater; * Collection of additional data in order to better resolve temporal and spatial patterns in water levels in the aquifer; * Improved estimates of recharge through direct and indirect measurements of freshwater discharge from the study area; and * Transient simulations for greater understanding of the amount of time required for water levels and the position of the interface between freshwater and saltwater to adjust to changes in sea level and recharge.

Mental health issues from rising sea level in a remote coastal region of the Solomon Islands: current and future.

PubMed

Asugeni, James; MacLaren, David; Massey, Peter D; Speare, Rick

2015-12-01

There is little published research about mental health and climate change in the Pacific, including Solomon Islands. Solomon Islands has one of the highest rates of sea-level rise globally. The aim of this research was to document mental health issues related to sea-level rise for people in East Malaita, Solomon Islands. A cross-sectional study was carried out in six low-lying villages in East Malaita, Solomon Islands. The researcher travelled to villages by dugout canoe. In addition to quantitative, closed-ended questions, open-ended questions with villagers explored individual and community responses to rising sea level. Of 60 people asked, 57 completed the questionnaire. Of these, 90% reported having seen a change in the weather patterns. Nearly all participants reported that sea-level rise is affecting them and their family and is causing fear and worry on a personal and community level. Four themes emerged from the qualitative analysis: experience of physical impacts of climate change; worry about the future; adaptation to climate change; government response needed. Given predictions of ongoing sea-level rise in the Pacific it is essential that more research is conducted to further understand the human impact of climate change for small island states which will inform local, provincial and national-level mental health responses. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2015.

The Surface Velocity Structure of the Florida Current in a Jet Coordinate Frame

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Archer, Matthew R.; Shay, Lynn K.; Johns, William E.

2017-11-01

The structure and variability of the Florida Current between 25° and 26°N are investigated using HF radar ocean current measurements to provide the most detailed view of the surface jet to date. A 2-D jet coordinate analysis is performed to define lateral displacements of the jet in time (meandering), and associated structural variations over a 2 year period (2005-2006). In the jet coordinate frame, core speed has a median value of ˜160 cm s-1 at the central latitude of the array (25.4°N), with a standard deviation (STD) of 35 cm s-1. The jet meanders at timescales of 3-30 days, with a STD of 8 km, and a downstream phase speed of ˜80 km d-1. Meandering accounts for ˜45% of eddy kinetic energy computed in a fixed (geographical) reference frame. Core speed, width, and shear undergo the same dominant 3-30 day variability, plus an annual cycle that matches seasonality of alongshore wind stress. Jet transport at 25.4°N exhibits a different seasonality to volume transport at 27°N, most likely driven by input from the Northwest Providence Channel. Core speed correlates inversely with Miami sea level fluctuations such that a 40 cm s-1 deceleration is associated with a ˜10 cm elevation in sea level, although there is no correlation of sea level to jet meandering or width. Such accurate quantification of the Florida Current's variability is critical to understand and forecast future changes in the climate system of the North Atlantic, as well as local impacts on coastal circulation and sea level variability along south Florida's coastline.

Using Groundwater Modeling to Evaluate Impacts of Sea Level Rise on A Coastal Riverine Ecosystem: A Case Study of Saint Jones River Water Shed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, C.; McKenna, T. E.

2016-12-01

A 3-D, transient, variable-density groundwater flow model (SEAWAT) is used to simulate the groundwater response to predicted sea level rise in the Saint Jones River watershed adjacent to the Delaware Estuary. Sea level rise directly leads to substantial changes in the depth of water table, and these changes can extend far inland due to the long tidal rivers in this area. This research studied the impacts of three different sea level rise scenarios (0.5m, 1.0m and 1.5m) on two concerned aspects in the area: failure of septic tank system and loss of agriculture land. The model results indicate that 1) 10% 13% of current existing septic tank will fail as the water table rise to less than 1.5meters from land surface, and 2) approximate 271 to 927 acres of agriculture land, which covers about 4% 13% of total current agriculture land in the study area, will be lost due to water table rise above the effective rooting depth. To count in the uncertainty of climate change in the future, Monte Carlo simulation was applied and a linear transformation model was created and verified to facilitate the tremendous computation.

Ground-Penetrating Radar Study of Fort Morgan Peninsula Holocene Beach Ridges as Sea-level Indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philbin, A.; Frederick, B.; Blum, M. D.; Tsoflias, G. P.

2017-12-01

Holocene sea-level change along the northern Gulf of Mexico (GoM) coast is controversial. One view interprets basal peats from the Mississippi Delta to indicate continual sea-level (SL) rise for the GoM as a whole. An alternate view proposes that data from the subsiding delta is primarily a subsidence signal, and that sandy non-deltaic shorelines indicate that regional SL reached present elevations by the middle Holocene, with minor oscillations since then. In fact, new regional long-term subsidence records from biostratigraphic indicators display significant subsidence in deltaic areas where basal-peat data were collected, and negligible rates along the GoM shoreline to the east. However, the use of sandy progradational shorelines, commonly known as "beach ridge systems", has been criticized for a lack of precise sea-level indicators, and therefore discounted. This research focuses on developing Holocene progradational sandy shorelines along the Alabama coast in the eastern GoM as SL indicators. Sandy shorelines in this area are ideal to examine SL change because they are well preserved, sufficiently distant from the subsiding delta, well mapped, and ages are known from previous work. Two-dimensional ground-penetrating radar imaging of well-dated beach-ridge successions is used here to examine and identify changes through time in the elevation of the shoreface clinoform topset-foreset break, which represents the transition between flat-lying foreshore and seaward-dipping shoreface facies, and forms in the intertidal zone. Beach-ridge successions with optical luminescence ages of ca. 5500-4800 yrs BP display topset-foreset breaks at current mean sea-level elevation, whereas beach-ridge successions from ca. 3500-2400 yrs BP display topset-foreset breaks that are 1 m above present mean SL and the elevation of modern topset-foreset breaks. These data support the view that current sea-level was reached by the middle Holocene, and was higher than present for at least one protracted period in the late Holocene. In addition to contributing to our understanding of Holocene SL change for the eastern GoM, results of this research provide context for sea-level conditions during which the Mississippi delta was constructed, and may provide insight into future shoreline response to rising sea levels.

Synthesizing long-term sea level rise projections - the MAGICC sea level model v2.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nauels, Alexander; Meinshausen, Malte; Mengel, Matthias; Lorbacher, Katja; Wigley, Tom M. L.

2017-06-01

Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the major impacts of global warming; it will threaten coastal populations, infrastructure, and ecosystems around the globe in coming centuries. Well-constrained sea level projections are needed to estimate future losses from SLR and benefits of climate protection and adaptation. Process-based models that are designed to resolve the underlying physics of individual sea level drivers form the basis for state-of-the-art sea level projections. However, associated computational costs allow for only a small number of simulations based on selected scenarios that often vary for different sea level components. This approach does not sufficiently support sea level impact science and climate policy analysis, which require a sea level projection methodology that is flexible with regard to the climate scenario yet comprehensive and bound by the physical constraints provided by process-based models. To fill this gap, we present a sea level model that emulates global-mean long-term process-based model projections for all major sea level components. Thermal expansion estimates are calculated with the hemispheric upwelling-diffusion ocean component of the simple carbon-cycle climate model MAGICC, which has been updated and calibrated against CMIP5 ocean temperature profiles and thermal expansion data. Global glacier contributions are estimated based on a parameterization constrained by transient and equilibrium process-based projections. Sea level contribution estimates for Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are derived from surface mass balance and solid ice discharge parameterizations reproducing current output from ice-sheet models. The land water storage component replicates recent hydrological modeling results. For 2100, we project 0.35 to 0.56 m (66 % range) total SLR based on the RCP2.6 scenario, 0.45 to 0.67 m for RCP4.5, 0.46 to 0.71 m for RCP6.0, and 0.65 to 0.97 m for RCP8.5. These projections lie within the range of the latest IPCC SLR estimates. SLR projections for 2300 yield median responses of 1.02 m for RCP2.6, 1.76 m for RCP4.5, 2.38 m for RCP6.0, and 4.73 m for RCP8.5. The MAGICC sea level model provides a flexible and efficient platform for the analysis of major scenario, model, and climate uncertainties underlying long-term SLR projections. It can be used as a tool to directly investigate the SLR implications of different mitigation pathways and may also serve as input for regional SLR assessments via component-wise sea level pattern scaling.

Extremely low genetic diversity across mangrove taxa reflects past sea level changes and hints at poor future responses.

PubMed

Guo, Zixiao; Li, Xinnian; He, Ziwen; Yang, Yuchen; Wang, Wenqing; Zhong, Cairong; Greenberg, Anthony J; Wu, Chung-I; Duke, Norman C; Shi, Suhua

2018-04-01

The projected increases in sea levels are expected to affect coastal ecosystems. Tropical communities, anchored by mangrove trees and having experienced frequent past sea level changes, appear to be vibrant at present. However, any optimism about the resilience of these ecosystems is premature because the impact of past climate events may not be reflected in the current abundance. To assess the impact of historical sea level changes, we conducted an extensive genetic diversity survey on the Indo-Malayan coast, a hotspot with a large global mangrove distribution. A survey of 26 populations in six species reveals extremely low genome-wide nucleotide diversity and hence very small effective population sizes (N e ) in all populations. Whole-genome sequencing of three mangrove species further shows the decline in N e to be strongly associated with the speed of past changes in sea level. We also used a recent series of flooding events in Yalong Bay, southern China, to test the robustness of mangroves to sea level changes in relation to their genetic diversity. The events resulted in the death of half of the mangrove trees in this area. Significantly, less genetically diverse mangrove species suffered much greater destruction. The dieback was accompanied by a drastic reduction in local invertebrate biodiversity. We thus predict that tropical coastal communities will be seriously endangered as the global sea level rises. Well-planned coastal development near mangrove forests will be essential to avert this crisis. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Sea Level Fingerprints of Global Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitrovica, J. X.; Hay, C.; Kopp, R. E., III; Morrow, E.

2014-12-01

It may be difficult to persuade those living in northern Europe that the sea level changes that their coastal communities face depends less on the total melting of polar ice sheets and glaciers than on the individual contributions to this total. In particular, melting of a specific ice sheet or mountain glacier drives deformational, gravitational and rotational perturbations to the Earth system that are manifest in a unique geometry, or fingerprint, of global sea level change. For example, melting from the Greenland Ice Sheet equivalent to 1 mm/yr of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise will lead to sea level rise of ~0 mm/yr in Dublin, ~0.2 mm/yr in Amsterdam, ~0.4 mm/yr in Boston and ~1.2 mm/yr in Cape Town. In contrast, if the same volume of ice melted from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, all of the above sites would experience a sea level rise in the range 1.1-1.2 mm/yr. These fingerprints of modern ice melting, together with ocean thermal expansion and dynamic effects, and the ongoing signal from glacial isostatic adjustment in response to the last ice age, combine to produce a sea level field with significant geographic variability. In this talk I will highlight an analysis of global tide gauge records that takes full advantage of this variability to estimate both GMSL and the sources of meltwater over the last century, and to project GMSL to the end of the current century.

Late mid-Holocene sea-level oscillation: A possible cause

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, D. B.; Collins, E. S.

Sea level oscillated between 5500 and 3500 years ago at Murrells Inlet, South Carolina, Chezzetcook and Baie Verte, Nova Scotia and Montmagny, Quebec. The oscillation is well constrained by foraminiferal marsh zonations in three locations and by diatoms in the fourth one. The implications are: (1) there was a eustatic sea-level oscillation of about 2-10 m in the late mid-Holocene on the southeast coast of North America (South Carolina to Quebec) that is not predicted by present geophysical models of relative sea-level change; (2) this oscillation coincides with oceanographic cooling on the east coast of Canada that we associate with melting ice; and (3) this sea- level oscillation/climatic event coincides exactly with the end of pyramid building in Egypt which is suggested to have resulted from a climate change (i.e. drought, cooling). This sea-level/climatic change is a prime example of feedback where climatic warming in the mid-Holocene promoted ice melt in the Arctic which subsequently caused climatic cooling by opening up Arctic channels releasing cold water into the Inner Labrador Current that continued to intensify until 4000 years ago. This sea-level event may also be the best way of measuring when the final ice melted since most estimates of the ages of the last melting are based on end moraine dates in the Arctic which may not coincide with when the last ice actually melted out, since there is no way of dating the final ice positions.

Atmospheric signature of the Agulhas current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stela Nkwinkwa Njouodo, Arielle; Koseki, Shunya; Rouault, Mathieu; Keenlyside, Noel

2017-04-01

Satellite observation and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) are used to map the influence of the Agulhas current on local annual precipitation in Southern Africa. The pressure adjustment mechanism is applied over the Agulhas current region. Results unfold that the narrow band of precipitation above the Agulhas Current is collocated with surface wind convergence, sea surface temperature (SST) Laplacian and sea level pressure (SLP) Laplacian. Relationship between SLP Laplacian and wind convergence is found, with 0.54 correlation coefficient statistically significant. In the free troposphere, the band of precipitation above the Agulhas current is collocated with the wind divergence and the upward motion of wind velocity. The warm waters from the Agulhas current can influence local precipitation.

Current & future vulnerability of sarasota county Florida to hurricane storm surge & sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, T.; Wood, N.; Yarnal, B.

2008-01-01

Coastal communities in portions of the United States are vulnerable to storm-surge inundation from hurricanes and this vulnerability will likely increase, given predicted rises in sea level from climate change and growing coastal development. In this paper, we provide an overview of research to determine current and future societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge inundation and to help public officials and planners integrate these scenarios into their long-range land use plans. Our case study is Sarasota County, Florida, where planners face the challenge of balancing increasing population growth and development with the desire to lower vulnerability to storm surge. Initial results indicate that a large proportion of Sarasota County's residential and employee populations are in areas prone to storm-surge inundation from a Category 5 hurricane. This hazard zone increases when accounting for potential sea-level-rise scenarios, thereby putting additional populations at risk. Subsequent project phases involve the development of future land use and vulnerability scenarios in collaboration with local officials. Copyright ASCE 2008.

De-confounding of Relations Between Land-Level and Sea-Level Change, Humboldt Bay, Northern California: Uncertain Predictions of Magnitude and Timing of Tectonic and Eustatic Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilkerson, W.; Leroy, T. H.; Patton, J. R.; Williams, T. B.

2010-12-01

Humboldt Bay in Northern California provides a unique opportunity to investigate the effects of relative sea level change on both native flora and maritime aquiculture as influenced by both tectonic and eustatic sea-level changes. This combination of superposed influences makes quantitatively predicting relative sea-level more uncertain and consumption of the results for public planning purposes exceedingly difficult. Public digestion for practical purposes is confounded by the fact that the uncertainty for eustatic sea-level changes is a magnitude issue while the uncertainty associated with the tectonic land level changes is both a magnitude and timing problem. Secondly, the public is less well informed regarding how crustal deformation contributes to relative sea-level change. We model the superposed effects of eustatic sea-level rise and tectonically driven land-level changes on the spatial distribution of habitats suitable to native eelgrass (Zostera marina) and oyster mariculture operations in Humboldt Bay. While these intertidal organisms were chosen primarily because they have vertically restricted spatial distributions that can be successfully modeled, the public awareness of their ecologic and economic importance is also well developed. We employ easy to understand graphics depicting conceptual ideas along with maps generated from the modeling results to develop locally relevant estimates of future sea level rise over the next 100 years, a time frame consistent with local planning. We bracket these estimates based on the range of possible vertical deformation changes. These graphic displays can be used as a starting point to propose local outcomes from global and regional relative sea-level changes with respect to changes in the distribution of suitable habitat for ecologically and economically valuable species. Currently the largest sources of uncertainty for changes in relative sea-level in the Humboldt Bay area are 1) the rate and magnitude of tectonic deformation throughout the earthquake cycle and 2) the stability and reliability of the tide gauges and other benchmarks assumed to be stable in the Humboldt Bay region.

Caribbean Sea Level Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; Crespo Jones, H.

2012-12-01

Over the past 500 years almost 100 tsunamis have been observed in the Caribbean and Western Atlantic, with at least 3510 people having lost their lives to this hazard since 1842. Furthermore, with the dramatic increase in population and infrastructure along the Caribbean coasts, today, millions of coastal residents, workers and visitors are vulnerable to tsunamis. The UNESCO IOC Intergovernmental Coordination Group for Tsunamis and other Coastal Hazards for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (CARIBE EWS) was established in 2005 to coordinate and advance the regional tsunami warning system. The CARIBE EWS focuses on four areas/working groups: (1) Monitoring and Warning, (2) Hazard and Risk Assessment, (3) Communication and (4) Education, Preparedness and Readiness. The sea level monitoring component is under Working Group 1. Although in the current system, it's the seismic data and information that generate the initial tsunami bulletins, it is the data from deep ocean buoys (DARTS) and the coastal sea level gauges that are critical for the actual detection and forecasting of tsunamis impact. Despite multiple efforts and investments in the installation of sea level stations in the region, in 2004 there were only a handful of sea level stations operational in the region (Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, Bermuda, Bahamas). Over the past 5 years there has been a steady increase in the number of stations operating in the Caribbean region. As of mid 2012 there were 7 DARTS and 37 coastal gauges with additional ones being installed or funded. In order to reach the goal of 100 operational coastal sea level stations in the Caribbean, the CARIBE EWS recognizes also the importance of maintaining the current stations. For this, a trained workforce in the region for the installation, operation and data analysis and quality control is considered to be critical. Since 2008, three training courses have been offered to the sea level station operators and data analysts. Other requirements and factors have been considered for the sustainability of the stations. The sea level stations have to potentially sustain very aggressive conditions of not only tsunamis, but on a more regular basis, hurricanes. Given the requirement that the data be available in near real time, for tsunami and other coastal hazard application, robust communication systems are also essential. For the local operator, the ability to be able to visualize the data is critical and tools like the IOC Sea level Monitoring Facility and the Tide Tool program are very useful. It has also been emphasized the need for these stations to serve multiple purposes. For climate and other research applications the data need to be archived, QC'd and analyzed. Increasing the user base for the sea level data has also been seen as an important goal to gain the local buy in; local weather and meteorological offices are considered as key stakeholders but for whom applications still need to be developed. The CARIBE EWS continues to look forward to working with other IOC partners including the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) and Sub-Commission for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (IOCARIBE)/GOOS, as well as with local, national and global sea level station operators and agencies for the development of a sustainable sea level network.

50 CFR 648.90 - NE multispecies assessment, framework procedures and specifications, and flexible area action...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...; survey results; stock status; current estimates of fishing mortality and overfishing levels; social and...; sea sampling and trawl survey data or, if sea sampling data are unavailable, length frequency information from trawl surveys; impact of other fisheries on herring mortality; and any other relevant...

Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, Robert E.; DeConto, Robert M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Hay, Carling C.; Horton, Radley M.; Kulp, Scott; Oppenheimer, Michael; Pollard, David; Strauss, Benjamin H.

2017-12-01

Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) simulations incorporating these physical processes to explore their influence on global-mean sea-level (GMSL) and relative sea-level (RSL). We compare the new projections to past results using expert assessment and structured expert elicitation about AIS changes. Under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), median projected 21st century GMSL rise increases from 79 to 146 cm. Without protective measures, revised median RSL projections would by 2100 submerge land currently home to 153 million people, an increase of 44 million. The use of a physical model, rather than simple parameterizations assuming constant acceleration of ice loss, increases forcing sensitivity: overlap between the central 90% of simulations for 2100 for RCP 8.5 (93-243 cm) and RCP 2.6 (26-98 cm) is minimal. By 2300, the gap between median GMSL estimates for RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 reaches >10 m, with median RSL projections for RCP 8.5 jeopardizing land now occupied by 950 million people (versus 167 million for RCP 2.6). The minimal correlation between the contribution of AIS to GMSL by 2050 and that in 2100 and beyond implies current sea-level observations cannot exclude future extreme outcomes. The sensitivity of post-2050 projections to deeply uncertain physics highlights the need for robust decision and adaptive management frameworks.

Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kopp, Robert E.; DeConto, Robert M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Hay, Carling C.; Horton, Radley M.; Kulp, Scott; Oppenheimer, Michael; Pollard, David; Strauss, Benjamin

2017-01-01

Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) simulations incorporating these physical processes to explore their influence on global-mean sea-level (GMSL) and relative sea-level (RSL). We compare the new projections to past results using expert assessment and structured expert elicitation about AIS changes. Under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), median projected 21st century GMSL rise increases from 79 to 146 cm. Without protective measures, revised median RSL projections would by 2100 submerge land currently home to 153 million people, an increase of 44 million. The use of a physical model, rather than simple parameterizations assuming constant acceleration of ice loss, increases forcing sensitivity: overlap between the central 90% of simulations for 2100 for RCP 8.5 (93-243 cm) and RCP 2.6 (26-98 cm) is minimal. By 2300, the gap between median GMSL estimates for RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 reaches >10 m, with median RSL projections for RCP 8.5 jeopardizing land now occupied by 950 million people (versus 167 million for RCP 2.6). The minimal correlation between the contribution of AIS to GMSL by 2050 and that in 2100 and beyond implies current sea-level observations cannot exclude future extreme outcomes. The sensitivity of post-2050 projections to deeply uncertain physics highlights the need for robust decision and adaptive management frameworks.

Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krien, Yann; Dudon, Bernard; Roger, Jean; Arnaud, Gael; Zahibo, Narcisse

2017-09-01

In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges pose a great threat to lives, properties and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazards with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave-current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique under present climate or considering a potential sea level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in the Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge - up to 100 % in some cases. The nonlinear interactions of sea level rise (SLR) with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

Large sand waves in Navarinsky Canyon head, Bering Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karl, Herman A.; Carlson, P.R.

1982-01-01

Sand waves are present in the heads of large submarine canyons in the northwestern Bering Sea. They vary in height between 2 to 15 m and have wavelengths of 600 m. They are not only expressed on the seafloor, but are also well defined in the subsurface and resemble enormous climbing bed forms. We conjecture that the sand waves originated during lower stands of sea level in the Pleistocene. Although we cannot explain the mechanics of formation of the sand waves, internal-wave generated currents are among four types of current that could account for these large structures. ?? 1982 A. M. Dowden, Inc.

Modelling coastal processes and morphological changes of the UK east coast in support of coastal decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaorong; Leonardi, Nicoletta; Brown, Jennifer; Plater, Andy

2017-04-01

The coastline of Eastern England is home to about one quarter of the UK's coastal habitats, including intertidal salt marshes, tidal flats and sand dunes. These geomorphic features are of great importance to the local wildlife, global biodiversity, marine environment and human society and economy. Due to sea-level rise and the occurrence of extreme weather conditions, the coastline of Eastern England is under high risk of erosion and recession, which could lead to tidal inundation of sites such as the RSPB Minsmere Reserve and power generation infrastructure at Sizewell. This research responds to the need for sustainable shoreline management plans of the UK east coast through sensitivity studies at the Dunwich-Sizewell area, Suffolk, UK. Particular interest is on the long-term morphodynamic response of the study area to possible environmental variations associated with global climate change. Key coastal processes, i.e. current, waves and sediment transport, and morphological evolution are studied using a process-based numerical model under the following scenarios: current mean sea level + calm wave conditions, current mean sea level + storms, sea level rise + calm wave conditions, and sea level rise + storms, all with a 'do nothing' management plan which allows the coastal environment to exist and respond dynamically. As a further aspect of this research, rules will be generalized for reduced-complexity, system-based modelling. Alternative management plans, including 'managed realignment' and 'advance the line', are also investigated in this research under the same environmental forcing scenarios, for the purposes of protection of infrastructure of national importance and conservation of wetland habitats. Both 'hard' and 'soft' engineering options, such as groynes and beach nourishment respectively, are considered. A more ecohydrological option which utilizes aquatic plant communities for wave energy dissipation and sediment trapping is also studied. The last option requires the numerical models to be modified based on understandings obtained through analysis of on-site observations and laboratory measurements.

Solutions Network Formulation Report: Improving NOAA's PORTS(R) Through Enhanced Data Inputs from NASA's Ocean Surface Topography Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guest, DeNeice

2007-01-01

The Nation uses water-level data for a variety of practical purposes, including nautical charting, maritime navigation, hydrography, coastal engineering, and tsunami and storm surge warnings. Long-term applications include marine boundary determinations, tidal predictions, sea-level trend monitoring, oceanographic research, and climate research. Accurate and timely information concerning sea-level height, tide, and ocean current is needed to understand their impact on coastal management, disaster management, and public health. Satellite altimeter data products are currently used by hundreds of researchers and operational users to monitor ocean circulation and to improve scientists understanding of the role of the oceans in climate and weather. The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) National Ocean Service has been monitoring sea-level variations for many years. NOAA s PORTS (Physical Oceanographic Real-Time System) DST (decision support tool), managed by the Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, supports safe and cost-efficient navigation by providing ship masters and pilots with accurate real-time information required to avoid groundings and collisions. This report assesses the capacity of NASA s satellite altimeter data to meet societal decision support needs through incorporation into NOAA s PORTS. NASA has a long heritage of collecting data for ocean research, including its current Terra and Aqua missions. Numerous other missions provide additional important information for coastal management issues, and data collection will continue in the coming decade with such missions as the OSTM (Ocean Surface Topography Mission). OSTM will provide data on sea-surface heights for determining ocean circulation, climate change, and sea-level rise. We suggest that NASA incorporate OSTM altimeter data (C- and Ku-band) into NOAA s PORTS DST in support of NASA s Coastal Management National Application with secondary support to the Disaster Management and Public Health National Applications.

Global mean sea level - Indicator of climate change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robock, A.; Hansen, J.; Gornitz, V.; Lebedeff, S.; Moore, E.; Etkins, R.; Epstein, E.

1983-01-01

A critical discussion is presented on the use by Etkins and Epstein (1982) of combined surface air temperature and sea level time series to draw conclusions concerning the discharge of the polar ice sheets. It is objected by Robock that they used Northern Hemisphere land surface air temperature records which are unrepresentative of global sea surface temperature, and he suggests that externally imposed volcanic dust and CO2 forcings can adequately account for observed temperature changes over the last century, with global sea level changing in passive response to sea change as a result of thermal expansion. Hansen et al. adduce evidence for global cooling due to ice discharge that has not exceeded a few hundredths of a degree centigrade in the last century, precluding any importance of this phenomenon in the interpretation of global mean temperature trends for this period. Etkins and Epstein reply that since their 1982 report additional evidence has emerged for the hypothesis that the polar ice caps are diminishing. It is reasserted that each of the indices discussed, including global mean sea surface temperature and sea level, polar ice sheet mass balance, water mass characteristics, and the spin rate and axis of rotation displacement of the earth, are physically linked and can be systematically monitored, as is currently being planned under the auspices of the National Climate Program.

Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchanan, M. K.; Kopp, R. E.; Oppenheimer, M.; Tebaldi, C.

2015-12-01

Sea-level rise (SLR) causes estimates of flood risk made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level to be biased low. However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inaccurate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. To accommodate both the temporal dynamics of SLR and their uncertainty, we develop an Average Annual Design Life Level (AADLL) metric and associated SLR allowances [1,2]. The AADLL is the flood level corresponding to a time-integrated annual expected probability of occurrence (AEP) under uncertainty over the lifetime of an asset; AADLL allowances are the adjustment from 2000 levels that maintain current risk. Given non-stationary and uncertain SLR, AADLL flood levels and allowances provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons and different levels of confidence in SLR projections in coastal areas. Allowances are a function primarily of local SLR and are nearly independent of AEP. Here we employ probabilistic SLR projections [3] to illustrate the calculation of AADLL flood levels and allowances with a representative set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines. [1] Rootzen et al., 2014, Water Resources Research 49: 5964-5972. [2] Hunter, 2013, Ocean Engineering 71: 17-27. [3] Kopp et al., 2014, Earth's Future 2: 383-406.

Impacts of past climate and sea level change on Everglades wetlands: placing a century of anthropogenic change into a late-Holocene context

USGS Publications Warehouse

Willard, D.A.; Bernhardt, C.E.

2011-01-01

We synthesize existing evidence on the ecological history of the Florida Everglades since its inception ~7 ka (calibrated kiloannum) and evaluate the relative impacts of sea level rise, climate variability, and human alteration of Everglades hydrology on wetland plant communities. Initial freshwater peat accumulation began between 6 and 7 ka on the platform underlying modern Florida Bay when sea level was ~6.2 m below its current position. By 5 ka, sawgrass and waterlily peats covered the area bounded by Lake Okeechobee to the north and the Florida Keys to the south. Slower rates of relative sea level rise ~3 ka stabilized the south Florida coastline and initiated transitions from freshwater to mangrove peats near the coast. Hydrologic changes in freshwater marshes also are indicated ~3 ka. During the last ~2 ka, the Everglades wetland was affected by a series of hydrologic fluctuations related to regional to global-scale fluctuations in climate and sea level. Pollen evidence indicates that regional-scale droughts lasting two to four centuries occurred ~1 ka and ~0.4 ka, altering wetland community composition and triggering development of characteristic Everglades habitats such as sawgrass ridges and tree islands. Intercalation of mangrove peats with estuarine muds ~1 ka indicates a temporary slowing or stillstand of sea level. Although sustained droughts and Holocene sea level rise played large roles in structuring the greater Everglades ecosystem, twentieth century reductions in freshwater flow, compartmentalization of the wetland, and accelerated rates of sea level rise had unprecedented impacts on oxidation and subsidence of organic soils, changes/loss of key Everglades habitats, and altered distribution of coastal vegetation.

Estimating Areas of Vulnerability: Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Hazards in the National Parks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caffrey, M.; Beavers, R. L.; Slayton, I. A.

2013-12-01

The University of Colorado Boulder in collaboration with the National Park Service has undertaken the task of compiling sea level change and storm surge data for 105 coastal parks. The aim of our research is to highlight areas of the park system that are at increased risk of rapid inundation as well as periodic flooding due to sea level rise and storms. This research will assist park managers and planners in adapting to climate change. The National Park Service incorporates climate change data into many of their planning documents and is willing to implement innovative coastal adaptation strategies. Events such as Hurricane Sandy highlight how impacts of coastal hazards will continue to challenge management of natural and cultural resources and infrastructure along our coastlines. This poster will discuss the current status of this project. We discuss the impacts of Hurricane Sandy as well as the latest sea level rise and storm surge modeling being employed in this project. In addition to evaluating various drivers of relative sea-level change, we discuss how park planners and managers also need to consider projected storm surge values added to sea-level rise magnitudes, which could further complicate the management of coastal lands. Storm surges occurring at coastal parks will continue to change the land and seascapes of these areas, with the potential to completely submerge them. The likelihood of increased storm intensity added to increasing rates of sea-level rise make predicting the reach of future storm surges essential for planning and adaptation purposes. The National Park Service plays a leading role in developing innovative strategies for coastal parks to adapt to sea-level rise and storm surge, whilst coastal storms are opportunities to apply highly focused responses.

Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level

PubMed Central

Strauss, Benjamin H.; Kulp, Scott; Levermann, Anders

2015-01-01

Anthropogenic carbon emissions lock in long-term sea-level rise that greatly exceeds projections for this century, posing profound challenges for coastal development and cultural legacies. Analysis based on previously published relationships linking emissions to warming and warming to rise indicates that unabated carbon emissions up to the year 2100 would commit an eventual global sea-level rise of 4.3–9.9 m. Based on detailed topographic and population data, local high tide lines, and regional long-term sea-level commitment for different carbon emissions and ice sheet stability scenarios, we compute the current population living on endangered land at municipal, state, and national levels within the United States. For unabated climate change, we find that land that is home to more than 20 million people is implicated and is widely distributed among different states and coasts. The total area includes 1,185–1,825 municipalities where land that is home to more than half of the current population would be affected, among them at least 21 cities exceeding 100,000 residents. Under aggressive carbon cuts, more than half of these municipalities would avoid this commitment if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet remains stable. Similarly, more than half of the US population-weighted area under threat could be spared. We provide lists of implicated cities and state populations for different emissions scenarios and with and without a certain collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although past anthropogenic emissions already have caused sea-level commitment that will force coastal cities to adapt, future emissions will determine which areas we can continue to occupy or may have to abandon. PMID:26460051

Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level.

PubMed

Strauss, Benjamin H; Kulp, Scott; Levermann, Anders

2015-11-03

Anthropogenic carbon emissions lock in long-term sea-level rise that greatly exceeds projections for this century, posing profound challenges for coastal development and cultural legacies. Analysis based on previously published relationships linking emissions to warming and warming to rise indicates that unabated carbon emissions up to the year 2100 would commit an eventual global sea-level rise of 4.3-9.9 m. Based on detailed topographic and population data, local high tide lines, and regional long-term sea-level commitment for different carbon emissions and ice sheet stability scenarios, we compute the current population living on endangered land at municipal, state, and national levels within the United States. For unabated climate change, we find that land that is home to more than 20 million people is implicated and is widely distributed among different states and coasts. The total area includes 1,185-1,825 municipalities where land that is home to more than half of the current population would be affected, among them at least 21 cities exceeding 100,000 residents. Under aggressive carbon cuts, more than half of these municipalities would avoid this commitment if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet remains stable. Similarly, more than half of the US population-weighted area under threat could be spared. We provide lists of implicated cities and state populations for different emissions scenarios and with and without a certain collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although past anthropogenic emissions already have caused sea-level commitment that will force coastal cities to adapt, future emissions will determine which areas we can continue to occupy or may have to abandon.

Black Sea in Bloom

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

This true-color image shows bright, turquoise-colored swirls across the surface of the Black Sea, signifying the presence of a large phytoplankton bloom. Scientists have observed similar blooms recurring annually, roughly this same time of year. The Sea of Azov, which is the smaller body of water located just north of the Black Sea in this image, also shows a high level of biological activity currently ongoing. The brownish pixels in the Azov are probably sediments carried in from high waters upstream. This scene was acquired by the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), flying aboard the OrbView-2 satellite, on May 4, 2002. According to the Black Sea Environment Programme's Marine Hydrophysical Institute, the Black Sea is 'one of the marine areas of the world most damaged by human activities.' The coastal zone around these Eastern European inland water bodies is densely populated-supporting a permanent population of roughly 16 million people and another 4 million tourists each year. Six countries border with the Black Sea, including Ukraine to the north, Russia and Georgia to the east, Turkey to the south, and Bulgaria and Romania to the west. Because it is isolated from the world's oceans, and because there is an extensive drainage network of rivers that empty into it, the Black Sea has a unique and delicate water balance which is very important for supporting its marine ecosystem. Of particular concern to scientists is the salinity, water level, and nutrient levels of the Black Sea's waters, all of which are, unfortunately, being impacted by human activities. Within the last three decades the combination of increased nutrient loads from human sources together with pollution and over-harvesting of fisheries has resulted in a sharp decline in water quality. Scientists from each of the Black Sea's bordering nations are currently working together to study the issues and formulate a joint, international strategy for saving this unique marine ecosystem. Working with a spirit of placing more emphasis on joint ownership of the Black Sea's resources, and less emphasis on blame, it is hoped that the cooperating countries can strike an effective balance between both enjoying and preserving the Black Sea. Image courtesy the SeaWiFS Project, NASA GSFC, and ORBIMAGE

Constraining Future Sea Level Rise Estimates from the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nias, I.; Cornford, S. L.; Edwards, T.; Gourmelen, N.; Payne, A. J.

2016-12-01

The Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) is the primary source of mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The catchment is particularly susceptible to grounding line retreat, because the ice sheet is grounded on bedrock that is below sea level and deepening towards its interior. Mass loss from the ASE ice streams, which include Pine Island, Thwaites and Smith glaciers, is a major uncertainty on future sea level rise, and understanding the dynamics of these ice streams is essential to constraining this uncertainty. The aim of this study is to construct a distribution of future ASE sea level contributions from an ensemble of ice sheet model simulations and observations of surface elevation change. A 284 member ensemble was performed using BISICLES, a vertically-integrated ice flow model with adaptive mesh refinement. Within the ensemble parameters associated with basal traction, ice rheology and sub-shelf melt rate were perturbed, and the effect of bed topography and sliding law were also investigated. Initially each configuration was run to 50 model years. Satellite observations of surface height change were then used within a Bayesian framework to assign likelihoods to each ensemble member. Simulations that better reproduced the current thinning patterns across the catchment were given a higher score. The resulting posterior distribution of sea level contributions is narrower than the prior distribution, although the central estimates of sea level rise are similar between the prior and posterior. The most extreme simulations were eliminated and the remaining ensemble members were extended to 200 years, using a simple melt rate forcing.

Sensitivity of sea-level forecasting to the horizontal resolution and sea surface forcing for different configurations of an oceanographic model of the Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bressan, Lidia; Valentini, Andrea; Paccagnella, Tiziana; Montani, Andrea; Marsigli, Chiara; Stefania Tesini, Maria

2017-04-01

At the Hydro-meteo-climate service of the Regional environmental agency of Emilia-Romagna, Italy (Arpae-SIMC), the oceanographic numerical model AdriaROMS is used in the operational forecasting suite to compute sea level, temperature, salinity and 3-D current fields of the Adriatic Sea (northern Mediterranean Sea). In order to evaluate the performance of the sea-level forecast and to study different configurations of the ROMS model, two marine storms occurred on the Emilia Romagna coast during the winter 2015-2016 are investigated. The main focus of this study is to analyse the sensitivity of the model to the horizontal resolution and to the meteorological forcing. To this end, the model is run with two different configurations and with two horizontal grids at 1 and 2 km resolution. To study the influence of the meteorological forcing, the two storms have been reproduced by running ROMS in ensemble mode, forced by the 16-members of the meteorological ensemble COSMO-LEPS system. Possible optimizations of the model set-up are deduced by the comparison of the different run outputs.

IInvestigations of space-time variability of the sea level in the Barents Sea and the White Sea by satellite altimetry data and results of hydrodynamic modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebedev, S. A.; Zilberstein, O. I.; Popov, S. K.; Tikhonova, O. V.

2003-04-01

The problem of retrieving of the sea level anomalies in the Barents and White Seas from satellite can be considered as two different problems. The first one is to calculate the anomalies of sea level along the trek taking into account all amendments including tidal heights. The second one is to obtain of fields of the sea level anomalies on the grid over one cycle of the exact repeat altimetry mission. Experience results show that there is preferable to use the regional tidal model for calculating tidal heights. To construct of the anomalies fields of the sea level during the exact repeat mission (cycle 35 days for ERS-1 and ERS-2), when a density of the coverage of the area of water of the Barents and White Seas by satellite measurements achieves maximum. It is necessary to solve the problem of the error minimum. This error is based by the temporal difference of the measurements over one cycle and by the specific of the hydrodynamic regime of the both seas (tidal, storm surge variations, tidal currents). To solve this problem it is assumed to use the results of the hydrodynamic modeling. The error minimum is preformed by the regression of the model results and satellite measurements. As a version it is considered the possibility of the utilizing of the neuronet obtained by the model results to construct maps of the sea level anomalies. The comparison of the model results and the calculation of the satellite altimetry variability of the sea level of Barents and White Seas shows a good coincidence between them. The satellite altimetry data of ERS-1/2 and TOPEX/POSEIDON of Ocean Altimeter Pathfinder Project (NASA/GSFC) has been used in this study. Results of the regional tidal model computations and three dimensional baroclinic model created in the Hydrometeocenter have been used as well. This study also exploited the atmosphere date of the Project REANALYSIS. The research was undertaken with partial support from the Russian Basic Research Foundation (Project No. 01-07-90106).

Response of the North Atlantic dynamic sea level and circulation to Greenland meltwater and climate change in an eddy-permitting ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saenko, Oleg A.; Yang, Duo; Myers, Paul G.

2017-10-01

The response of the North Atlantic dynamic sea surface height (SSH) and ocean circulation to Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) meltwater fluxes is investigated using a high-resolution model. The model is forced with either present-day-like or projected warmer climate conditions. In general, the impact of meltwater on the North Atlantic SSH and ocean circulation depends on the surface climate. In the two major regions of deep water formation, the Labrador Sea and the Nordic Seas, the basin-mean SSH increases with the increase of the GrIS meltwater flux. This SSH increase correlates with the decline of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, while in the Labrador Sea the warming forcing and GrIS meltwater input lead to sea level rise, in the Nordic Seas these two forcings have an opposite influence on the convective mixing and basin-mean SSH (relative to the global mean). The warming leads to less sea-ice cover in the Nordic Seas, which favours stronger surface heat loss and deep mixing, lowering the SSH and generally increasing the transport of the East Greenland Current. In the Labrador Sea, the increased SSH and weaker deep convection are reflected in the decreased transport of the Labrador Current (LC), which closes the subpolar gyre in the west. Among the two major components of the LC transport, the thermohaline and bottom transports, the former is less sensitive to the GrIS meltwater fluxes under the warmer climate. The SSH difference across the LC, which is a component of the bottom velocity, correlates with the long-term mean AMOC rate.

77 FR 27403 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List the Eastern...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-10

... level), rising sea levels due to climate change may inundate some habitat occupied by the species and... current population levels, and current and projected trends; and (e) Past and ongoing conservation... Philosophical Society, Vol. 4 (1799), pp. 362-381). The Florida Museum of Natural History Web site 2011 ( http...

Performance of the Volumetric Diffusive Respirator at Altitude

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-08-18

information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS. 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM...increased by 30-40%. Tidal volume remained within 15% of sea level values. Respiratory rate fell, while inspiratory time increased and high frequency...altitude, positive end expiratory pressure and peak inspiratory pressure were increased by 30-40%. Tidal volume remained within 15% of sea level

Historical Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Processes of the Ponto-Caspian Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koriche, Sifan A.; Singarayer, Joy S.; Coe, Michael T.; Nandini, Sri; Prange, Matthias; Cloke, Hannah; Lunt, Dan

2017-04-01

The Ponto-Caspian basin is one of the largest basins globally, composed of a closed basin (Caspian Sea) and open basins connecting to the global ocean (Black and Azov Sea). Over the historical time period (1850-present) Caspian Sea levels have varied between -25 and -29mbsl (Arpe et al., 2012), resulting in considerable changes to the area of the lake (currently 371,000 km2). Given projections of future climate change and the importance of the Caspian Sea for fisheries, agriculture, and industry, it is vital to understand how sea levels may vary in the future. Hydrological models can be used to assess the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes for future forecasts. However, it is critical to first evaluate such models using observational data for the present and recent past, and to understand the key hydrological processes driving past changes in sea level. In this study, the Terrestrial Hydrological Model (THMB) (Coe, 2000, 2002) is applied and evaluated to investigate the hydrological processes of the Ponto-Caspian basin for the historical period 1900 to 2000. The model has been forced using observational reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim, ERA-20) and historical climate model data outputs (from CESM and HadCM3 models) to investigate the variability in the Caspian Sea level and the major river discharges. We examine the differences produced by driving the hydrological model with reanalysis data or climate models. We evaluate the model performance compared to observational discharge measurements and Caspian Sea level data. Secondly, we investigated the sensitivity of historical Caspian Sea level variations to different aspects of climate changes to examine the most important processes involved over this time period.

The source of 90-day oscillations at Wake Island

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitchum, Gary T.

1995-01-01

Energetic 90-day oscillations of sea level have been intermittently observed at Wake Island in the western tropical Pacific during the past 2 decades. The oscillations tend to occur about 1.5 years after El Nino-Southern Oscillation events, to have amplitudes of 10-15 cm, and to persist for about 1 year. Sea surface heights from the Geosat altimeter are used to establish that these signals take the form of Rossby waves and have an energy source near the Big Island of Hawaii, which lies 40 deg of longitude to the east. Sea level and upper layer currents from an eddy-resolving numerical model are examined and suggest that the energy source is eddies generated off the Big Island of Hawaii. These eddies appear to be associated with westward currents that intermittently impinge on the island. Several alternate hypotheses are also discussed and rejected.

Modeling tidal marsh distribution with sea-level rise: evaluating the role of vegetation, sediment, and upland habitat in marsh resiliency.

PubMed

Schile, Lisa M; Callaway, John C; Morris, James T; Stralberg, Diana; Parker, V Thomas; Kelly, Maggi

2014-01-01

Tidal marshes maintain elevation relative to sea level through accumulation of mineral and organic matter, yet this dynamic accumulation feedback mechanism has not been modeled widely in the context of accelerated sea-level rise. Uncertainties exist about tidal marsh resiliency to accelerated sea-level rise, reduced sediment supply, reduced plant productivity under increased inundation, and limited upland habitat for marsh migration. We examined marsh resiliency under these uncertainties using the Marsh Equilibrium Model, a mechanistic, elevation-based soil cohort model, using a rich data set of plant productivity and physical properties from sites across the estuarine salinity gradient. Four tidal marshes were chosen along this gradient: two islands and two with adjacent uplands. Varying century sea-level rise (52, 100, 165, 180 cm) and suspended sediment concentrations (100%, 50%, and 25% of current concentrations), we simulated marsh accretion across vegetated elevations for 100 years, applying the results to high spatial resolution digital elevation models to quantify potential changes in marsh distributions. At low rates of sea-level rise and mid-high sediment concentrations, all marshes maintained vegetated elevations indicative of mid/high marsh habitat. With century sea-level rise at 100 and 165 cm, marshes shifted to low marsh elevations; mid/high marsh elevations were found only in former uplands. At the highest century sea-level rise and lowest sediment concentrations, the island marshes became dominated by mudflat elevations. Under the same sediment concentrations, low salinity brackish marshes containing highly productive vegetation had slower elevation loss compared to more saline sites with lower productivity. A similar trend was documented when comparing against a marsh accretion model that did not model vegetation feedbacks. Elevation predictions using the Marsh Equilibrium Model highlight the importance of including vegetation responses to sea-level rise. These results also emphasize the importance of adjacent uplands for long-term marsh survival and incorporating such areas in conservation planning efforts.

Wave-current interactions in megatidal environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennis, A. C.; Pascal, B. D. B.; Feddy, A.; Garnier, V.; Accenti, M.; Dumas, F.; Ardhuin, F.

2016-12-01

The strongest tidal current in western Europe (up to 12 knots) occurs in Raz Blanchard (Normandy, France). High winds occur over six months which generate energetic wave conditions with breaking waves, hence the name of `Blanchard'. However, few studies have been conducted on the wave effects on the tidal current at this location because of the lack of measurements. Studies are now required to aid the creation of tidal farms. For this purpose, the 3D fully-coupled model MARS-WW3 is used with three nested ranks which are forced at boundaries by wave spectra from HOMERE database (Boudière et al., 2013) and by sea level from the French Navy (SHOM). The model is tested against ADCP data of IRSN at three locations near Raz Blanchard. Time series of current velocity and of mean sea level are consistent with ADCP data. A rephasing by waves of the tidal current is observed in comparison with simulations without waves, which fits the ADCP data. A strong dependence of the tidal current on bottom roughness is shown as well as the necessity to take into account its spatial heterogeneity. The simulated mean sea level is close to the measured one while it was underestimated for high tide in simulations without wave effects. The vertical shape of the tidal current is especially modified near the surface by waves as expected. Depending on the tidal cycle and wave direction, acceleration or deceleration of the surface current due to waves is observed. Lastly, several hydrodynamical scenarios for Raz Blanchard are carried out for different tidal and wave conditions pending the HYD2M'17 data (ADCP, ADV, drifting wave buoys, HF and VHF and X-Band radars). First results show the impacts of refractive, shoaling and blocking effects on the flood and ebb currents.

Mixing mechanisms in siliciclastic-carbonate successions of Khan Formation (Permian), Central Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shadan, Mahdi; Hosseini-Barzi, Mahboubeh

2010-05-01

Mixing mechanisms in siliciclastic-carbonate successions of Khan Formation (Permian), Central Iran M. Shadan & M. Hosseini-Barzi Geology Department, Faculty of Earth Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran shadangeo@gmail.com Mixing mechanisms in siliciclastic-carbonate successions of Khan Formation (Permian) have been studied in two sections (Chahroof with 197 m thick in north and Cheshmeh Bakhshi with 204 m thick in south) along basement Kalmard fault in Posht-e-Badam block, Central Iran. Siliciclastic units are characterized by well sorted, fine to medium grain quartzarenites with laterite interbeds, deposited in shoreline zone (foreshore, upper and lower shoreface) influencing wave and longshore currents. Longshore sands which have been transported along the coast made the sand bars in the shoreface. Further along the coast, returning of these currents as rip currents produced erosive channel inlets and caused to carry fine grain into the deeper regions of the basin. Based on this sedimentary model we introduced longshore currents as a probable agent for mixing, by transporting some volumes of sands into the adjacent carbonate environments. Vertically, clastic units of Khan Formation underlined by carbonate units of a tidal flat and high-energy inner ramp system. Repeating of this pattern produced 3 cycles in each section. Cyclic evolution, in studied sections, is accompanied with discrepancy in erosion and sedimentation. These factors caused to disperse local sub-aerial exposures in successions which are recognizable by laterite and conglomerate interbeds. These horizons of sub-aerial exposures are more often in Chahroof section than in Cheshmeh Bakhshi section and indicate more fluctuations of relative sea level probably due to more local tectonic activity in the northern part of the Kalmard fault than in the southern part of it. Also, thicker siliciclastic units in Chahroof section show higher rate of sediment supply and/or more accommodation space there. Moreover, the late Paleozoic glacial conditions in Gondwana lands supported the large volume of clastic supply into the basin by intense weathering and erosion of vast exposed regions in Posht-e-Badam block. Also, tectonic activity along Kalmard basement fault mainly controlled local sea level changes and lithology of outcrops in the hinterlands. Therefore, interplay of these factors during lowstand of relative sea level, with lower accommodation space and higher gradient led to high rate of sediment input and distribution of siliciclastics in the base of each cycles. In contrast, relative sea level rises have been corresponded to the more accommodation space and reducing of siliciclastic entrance into the sedimentary basin that made a suitable condition for carbonate production. Therefore, during relative sea level rise, verities of carbonate-producing organisms tend to more rates of biogenic carbonate products and eventually formation of carbonate units upon the preexistence silisiclastics. Therefore, mixing of siliciclastics with carbonate deposits in Khan Formation have mainly been controlled temporally by sea level fluctuations due to local and/or eustatic sea level changes and spatially by variations in local tectonic activities and lateral facies mixing by longshore currents.

Effect of mesoscale eddies on the Taiwan Strait Current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Y. L.; Miyazawa, Y.; Guo, X.

2016-02-01

This study shows that mesoscale eddies can alter the Taiwan Strait current. The 20-year data-assimilated Japan Coastal Ocean Predictability Experiment 2 (JCOPE2) reanalysis data are analyzed, and the results are confirmed with idealized experiments. The leading wind-forced seasonal cycle is excluded to focus on the effect of the eddy. The warm eddy southwest of Taiwan is shown to generate a northward flow, whereas the cold eddy produces a southward current. The effect of the eddy penetrates onto the shelf through the Joint Effect of Baroclinicity and Relief (JEBAR). The cross-isobath fluxes lead to shelfward convergence and divergence, setting up the modulation of the sea level slope. The resulting along-strait current anomaly eventually affects a wide area of the Taiwan Strait. The stronger eddy leads to larger modification of the cross-shelf flows and sea level slope, producing a greater transport anomaly. The composite Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) serves as an indicator to show the change in Chl-a concentration in the strait in response to the eddy-induced current. During the warm eddy period, the current carries the southern water of lower concentration northward, reducing Chl-a concentration in the strait. In contrast, Chl-a is enhanced because the cold eddy-induced southward current carries the northern water of higher concentration southward into the strait.

NASA Sea Level Change Portal - It not just another portal site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, T.; Quach, N.; Abercrombie, S. P.; Boening, C.; Brennan, H. P.; Gill, K. M.; Greguska, F. R., III; Jackson, R.; Larour, E. Y.; Shaftel, H.; Tenenbaum, L. F.; Zlotnicki, V.; Moore, B.; Moore, J.; Boeck, A.

2017-12-01

The NASA Sea Level Change Portal (https://sealevel.nasa.gov) is designed as a "one-stop" source for current sea level change information, including interactive tools for accessing and viewing regional data, a virtual dashboard of sea level indicators, and ongoing updates through a suite of editorial products that include content articles, graphics, videos, and animations. With increasing global temperatures warming the ocean and melting ice sheets and glaciers, there is an immediate need both for accelerating sea level change research and for making this research accessible to scientists in disparate discipline, to the general public, to policy makers and business. The immersive and innovative NASA portal debuted at the 2015 AGU attracts thousands of daily visitors and over 30K followers on Facebook®. Behind its intuitive interface is an extensible architecture that integrates site contents, data for various sources, visualization, horizontal-scale geospatial data analytic technology (called NEXUS), and an interactive 3D simulation platform (called the Virtual Earth System Laboratory). We will present an overview of our NASA portal and some of our architectural decisions along with discussion on our open-source, cloud-based data analytic technology that enables on-the-fly analysis of heterogeneous data.

Relative sea-level changes and crustal movements in Britain and Ireland since the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shennan, Ian; Bradley, Sarah L.; Edwards, Robin

2018-05-01

The new sea-level database for Britain and Ireland contains >2100 data points from 86 regions and records relative sea-level (RSL) changes over the last 20 ka and across elevations ranging from ∼+40 to -55 m. It reveals radically different patterns of RSL as we move from regions near the centre of the Celtic ice sheet at the last glacial maximum to regions near and beyond the ice limits. Validated sea-level index points and limiting data show good agreement with the broad patterns of RSL change predicted by current glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. The index points show no consistent pattern of synchronous coastal advance and retreat across different regions, ∼100-500 km scale, indicating that within-estuary processes, rather than decimetre- and centennial-scale oscillations in sea level, produce major controls on the temporal pattern of horizontal shifts in coastal sedimentary environments. Comparisons between the database and GIA model predictions for multiple regions provide potentially powerful constraints on various characteristics of global GIA models, including the magnitude of MWP1A, the final deglaciation of the Laurentide ice sheet and the continued melting of Antarctica after 7 ka BP.

Fingerprinting sea-level variations in response to continental ice loss: a benchmark exercise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barletta, Valentina R.; Spada, Giorgio; Riva, Riccardo E. M.; James, Thomas S.; Simon, Karen M.; van der Wal, Wouter; Martinec, Zdenek; Klemann, Volker; Olsson, Per-Anders; Hagedoorn, Jan; Stocchi, Paolo; Vermeersen, Bert

2013-04-01

Understanding the response of the Earth to the waxing and waning ice sheets is crucial in various contexts, ranging from the interpretation of modern satellite geodetic measurements to the projections of future sea level trends in response to climate change. All the processes accompanying Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) can be described solving the so-called Sea Level Equation (SLE), an integral equation that accounts for the interactions between the ice sheets, the solid Earth, and the oceans. Modern approaches to the SLE are based on various techniques that range from purely analytical formulations to fully numerical methods. Here we present the results of a benchmark exercise of independently developed codes designed to solve the SLE. The study involves predictions of current sea level changes due to present-day ice mass loss. In spite of the differences in the methods employed, the comparison shows that a significant number of GIA modellers can reproduce their sea-level computations within 2% for well defined, large-scale present-day ice mass changes. Smaller and more detailed loads need further and dedicated benchmarking and high resolution computation. This study shows how the details of the implementation and the inputs specifications are an important, and often underappreciated, aspect. Hence this represents a step toward the assessment of reliability of sea level projections obtained with benchmarked SLE codes.

The Global Drifter Program Currents, Sea Surface Temperature, Atmospheric Pressure and Waves in the World's OceanThe Global Drifter Program Currents, Sea Surface Temperature, Atmospheric Pressure and Waves in the World's Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Centurioni, Luca

2017-04-01

The Global Drifter Program is the principal component of the Global Surface Drifting Buoy Array, a branch of NOAA's Global Ocean Observing System and a scientific project of the Data Buoy Cooperation Panel (DBCP). The DBCP is an international program coordinating the use of autonomous data buoys to observe atmospheric and oceanographic conditions over ocean areas where few other measurements are taken. The Global Drifter Program maintains an array of over 1,250 Lagrangian drifters, reporting in near real-time and designed measure 15 m depth Lagrangian currents, sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level atmospheric pressure (SLP), among others, to fulfill the needs to observe the air-sea interface at temporal and spatial scales adequate to support short to medium-range weather forecasting, ocean state estimates and climate science. This overview talk will discuss the main achievements of the program, the main impacts for satellite SST calibration and validation, for numerical weather prediction, and it will review the main scientific findings based on the use of Lagrangian currents. Finally, we will present new developments in Lagrangian drifter technology, which include special drifters designed to measure sea surface salinity, wind and directional wave spectra. New opportunities for expanding the scope of the Global Drifter Program will be discussed.

Extreme Sea Level Rise Event Linked to 2009-10 AMOC Downturn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, J.

2016-02-01

The coastal sea levels along the Northeast Coast of North America show significant year-to-year fluctuations in a general upward trend. Our analysis of long-term tide gauge records along the North American east coast identified an extreme sea-level rise (SLR) event during 2009-2010. Within this relatively brief two-year period, coastal sea levels north of New York City jumped by 100 mm. This magnitude of inter-annual SLR is unprecedented in the century-long tide gauge records, with statistical methods suggesting that it was a 1-in-850 year event. We show that this extreme SLR event was a combined effect of two physical factors. First, it was partly due to an observed 30% downturn of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) during 2009-2010. This AMOC slowdown caused a significant decline of the dynamic sea level gradient across the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current, thereby imparting a rise in coastal sea level. The second contributing factor to the extreme SLR event was due to a significant negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The associated easterly or northeasterly wind anomalies acted to push ocean waters towards the Northeast Coast through the Ekman transport, resulting in further rise in coastal sea levels. Sea level pressure anomalies also contributed to the extreme SLR event through the inverse barometer effect. To project future extreme sea levels along the east coast of North America during the 21st century, we make use of a suite of climate/Earth system models developed at GFDL and other modeling centers. These models included typical CMIP5-class models, as well as the newer climate models GFDL CM2.5 and CM2.6 with eddying oceans. In response to the increase in greenhouse-gas concentrations, each of these models show a reduction in the AMOC. Given the observed connection between AMOC reduction and extreme coastal sea levels, the models thus project an increase in extreme SLR frequency on interannual time scales along the Northeast Coast of North America.

A comparison of two global datasets of extreme sea levels and resulting flood exposure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muis, Sanne; Verlaan, Martin; Nicholls, Robert J.; Brown, Sally; Hinkel, Jochen; Lincke, Daniel; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Scussolini, Paolo; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Ward, Philip J.

2017-04-01

Estimating the current risk of coastal flooding requires adequate information on extreme sea levels. For over a decade, the only global data available was the DINAS-COAST Extreme Sea Levels (DCESL) dataset, which applies a static approximation to estimate extreme sea levels. Recently, a dynamically derived dataset was developed: the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset. Here, we compare the two datasets. The differences between DCESL and GTSR are generally larger than the confidence intervals of GTSR. Compared to observed extremes, DCESL generally overestimates extremes with a mean bias of 0.6 m. With a mean bias of -0.2 m GTSR generally underestimates extremes, particularly in the tropics. The Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment model is applied to calculate the present-day flood exposure in terms of the land area and the population below the 1 in 100-year sea levels. Global exposed population is 28% lower when based on GTSR instead of DCESL. Considering the limited data available at the time, DCESL provides a good estimate of the spatial variation in extremes around the world. However, GTSR allows for an improved assessment of the impacts of coastal floods, including confidence bounds. We further improve the assessment of coastal impacts by correcting for the conflicting vertical datum of sea-level extremes and land elevation, which has not been accounted for in previous global assessments. Converting the extreme sea levels to the same vertical reference used for the elevation data is shown to be a critical step resulting in 39-59% higher estimate of population exposure.

(abstract) Using TOPEX/Poseidon Sea Level Observations to Test the Sensitivity of an Ocean Model to Wind Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, Lee-Lueng; Chao, Yi

1996-01-01

It has been demonstrated that current-generation global ocean general circulation models (OGCM) are able to simulate large-scale sea level variations fairly well. In this study, a GFDL/MOM-based OGCM was used to investigate its sensitivity to different wind forcing. Simulations of global sea level using wind forcing from the ERS-1 Scatterometer and the NMC operational analysis were compared to the observations made by the TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) radar altimeter for a two-year period. The result of the study has demonstrated the sensitivity of the OGCM to the quality of wind forcing, as well as the synergistic use of two spaceborne sensors in advancing the study of wind-driven ocean dynamics.

The Anthropocene and the international law of the sea.

PubMed

Vidas, Davor

2011-03-13

The current law of the sea provides a framework for various specific issues, but is incapable of responding adequately to the overall challenges facing humankind, now conceivably already living in the Anthropocene. The linkages between the development of the law of the sea and the current process towards formal recognition of an Anthropocene epoch are twofold. First, there is a linkage of origin. The ideological foundations of the law of the sea facilitated the emergence of forces that were to lead to the Industrial Revolution and, eventually, to levels of development entailing ever-greater human impacts on the Earth System. Second, there are linkages in interaction. Geological information has prompted key developments in the law of the sea since the introduction of the continental shelf concept in the mid-twentieth century. With the formalization of the Anthropocene epoch, geology might again act as a trigger for new developments needed in the law of the sea. This article explores those two aspects of linkages and examines prospects for further development of the law of the sea framework, through concepts such as the responsibility for the seas as well as those related to new approaches to global sustainability such as the 'planetary boundaries'.

Explicit Simulation of Networks of Outlet Glaciers to Constrain Greenland's Sea Level Contribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ultee, E.; Bassis, J. N.

2017-12-01

Ice from the Greenland Ice Sheet drains to the ocean through hundreds of outlet glaciers, many of which are too small to be accurately resolved in continental-scale ice sheet models. Moreover, despite the fact that dynamic changes in Greenland outlet glaciers are currently responsible for about half of the ice sheet's contribution to global sea level, all but the largest are often excluded from major sea level assessments. We have previously developed and validated a simple model that simulates advance and retreat of networks of marine-terminating glaciers based on the perfect plastic approximation. Here we apply this model to a selection of forcing scenarios, representing both climate persistence and extreme scenarios, to constrain changes in calving flux from the most significant Greenland outlet glaciers. Our model can be implemented in standalone mode or as the calving module in a more sophisticated large-scale model, providing constraints on Greenland's future contribution to global sea level rise under a range of scenarios.

Trophic interactions within the Ross Sea continental shelf ecosystem

PubMed Central

Smith, Walker O; Ainley, David G; Cattaneo-Vietti, Riccardo

2006-01-01

The continental shelf of the Ross Sea is one of the Antarctic's most intensively studied regions. We review the available data on the region's physical characteristics (currents and ice concentrations) and their spatial variations, as well as components of the neritic food web, including lower and middle levels (phytoplankton, zooplankton, krill, fishes), the upper trophic levels (seals, penguins, pelagic birds, whales) and benthic fauna. A hypothetical food web is presented. Biotic interactions, such as the role of Euphausia crystallorophias and Pleuragramma antarcticum as grazers of lower levels and food for higher trophic levels, are suggested as being critical. The neritic food web contrasts dramatically with others in the Antarctic that appear to be structured around the keystone species Euphausia superba. Similarly, we suggest that benthic–pelagic coupling is stronger in the Ross Sea than in most other Antarctic regions. We also highlight many of the unknowns within the food web, and discuss the impacts of a changing Ross Sea habitat on the ecosystem. PMID:17405209

Quantitative analysis of Ostracoda and water masses around Japan: Application to Pliocene and Pleistocene paleoceanography

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ikeya, Noriyuki; Cronin, Thomas M.

1993-01-01

An ostracode data base consisting of 273 samples from coretops and comprising 226 species was developed for the seas around the Japanese Islands to determine zoogeographic patterns and for application to Pliocene and Pleistocene paleoceanography in the area. Quantitative analyses of the 59 most common taxa between 0 and 300m water depth indicate that ostracode associations are controlled by the main oceanic water masses around Japan and that bottom water temperature is a key factor influencing species distributions. Ostracodes from the following water masses were studied: warm Kuroshio Current, Tsushima Current (Tsugaru Current and Soya Current), Japan Sea intermediate water, Japan Sea proper water and cold Oyashio Current. In order to apply the modem coretop data base to fossil ostracode assemblages, the modem analog technique (MAT) using a squared chord distance (SCD) measure of dissimilarity was tested as a means of comparing fossil and modem assemblages. SCD values of 0.25 or less adequately identify modem analogs from the coretop data set at the local ecological level (i.e. within the same modern bay), while values of 0.25-0.5 identify modem analogs at the level of the zoogeographic province. The MAT method was tested against 3 Pliocene and 11 Pleistocene formations in Japan to examine the use of the MAT in paleoceanographic reconstruction.

Design and skill assessment of an Operational Forecasting System for currents and sea level variability to the Santos Estuarine System - Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godoi Rezende Costa, C.; Castro, B. M.; Blumberg, A. F.; Leite, J. R. B., Sr.

2017-12-01

Santos City is subject to an average of 12 storm tide events per year. Such events bring coastal flooding able to threat human life and damage coastal infrastructure. Severe events have forced the interruption of ferry boat services and ship traffic through Santos Harbor, causing great impacts to Santos Port, the largest in South America, activities. Several studies have focused on the hydrodynamics of storm tide events but only a few of those studies have pursued an operational initiative to predict short term (< 3 days) sea level variability. The goals of this study are (i) to describe the design of an operational forecasting system built to predict sea surface elevation and currents in the Santos Estuarine System and (ii) to evaluate model performance in simulating observed sea surface elevation. The Santos Operational Forecasting System (SOFS) hydrodynamic module is based on the Stevens Institute Estuarine and Coastal Ocean Model (sECOM). The fully automated SOFS is designed to provide up to 71 h forecast of sea surface elevations and currents every day. The system automatically collects results from global models to run the SOFS nested into another sECOM based model for the South Brazil Bight (SBB). Global forecasting results used to force both models come from Mercator Ocean, released by Copernicus Marine Service, and from the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) stablished by the Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies (with Portuguese acronym CPTEC). The complete routines task take about 8 hours of run time to finish. SOFS was able to hindcast a severe storm tide event that took place in Santos on August 21-22, 2016. Comparisons with observed sea level provided skills of 0.92 and maximum root mean square errors of 25 cm. The good agreement with observed data shows the potential of the designed system to predict storm tides and to support both human and assets protection.

Intraseasonal flow and its impact on the chlorophyll-a concentration in the Sunda Strait and its vicinity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Tengfei; Li, Shujiang; Hamzah, Faisal; Setiawan, Agus; Susanto, R. Dwi; Cao, Guojiao; Wei, Zexun

2018-06-01

Sunda Strait is the outflow strait of the South China Sea branch of the Pacific to Indian Ocean Throughflow. The annual mean volume transport through the Sunda Strait is around 0.25 Sv from the Java Sea to the eastern Indian Ocean, only 2.5% of the IndonesianThroughflow, and thus has been ignored by previous investigations. However, the Nutrient concentrations in the Sunda Strait and its vicinity are found highly related to the water transport through the Sunda Strait. Particularly, our observation shows significant intraseasonal variability (ISV) of currents at period around 25-45 days in the Sunda Strait. Both remote and local wind forcing contribute to the ISVs in the Sunda Strait. The intraseasonal oscillation of sea surface wind in the central Indian Ocean drives upwelling/downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves to propagate along the equator and subsequently along the Sumatra-Java coasts, resulting in negative/positive sea level anomalies in the south of the Sunda Strait. The local intraseasonal sea surface wind anomalies also tend to induce negative/positive sea level anomalies in the south of the Sunda Strait by offshore/onshore Ekman transport while there are upwelling/downwelling events. The ensuring sea level gradient associated with the sea level anomalies in the south of the Sunda Strait induces intraseasonal outflow (from Indian Ocean to Java Sea) and inflow (from Java Sea to Indian Ocean) through the strait. Analyses also show that the chlorophyll-a concentrations in the south of the Sunda Strait are lower/higher during the inflow/outflow period of the ISV events in March through May. The mechanism attributes to both the nutrient-rich water transported by the intraseasonal flow in the Sunda Strait and by the upwelling and Ekman transport driven by the local sea surface wind anomalies.

Effects of elevated temperatures and rising sea level on Arctic Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnes, Peter W.

1990-01-01

Ice is a major agent on the inner shelf, gouging the bottom, increasing hydraulic scour, transporting sediment, and influencing river flood patterns. Rapid coastal retreat is common and low barrier islands and beaches are constantly changing due to the influence of permafrost, ice-push, waves, and currents. Coastal processes are presently a balance between the influence of ice and the action of waves and currents. Quantitative values for processes are poorly known, however our qualitative understanding is nearly complete. Climatic warming and rising sea levels would decrease the temporal and aerial extent of coastal ice thereby expanding the role of waves and currents. As a result, shoreline retreat rates would increase, producing a transgressive erosional surface on the low coastal plain. With increased wave activity, beaches and barrier islands presently nourished by ice push processes would decay and disappear. Increased sediment supply from a deeply thawed, active layer would release more sediments to rivers and coasts. Additional research should be focused on permafrost and sea ice processes active during freeze up and breakup; the two seasons of most vigorous activity and change.

Data requirements in support of the marine weather service program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Travers, J.; Mccaslin, R. W.; Mull, M.

1972-01-01

Data support activities for the Marine Weather Service Program are outlined. Forecasts, cover anomolous water levels, including sea and swell, surface and breakers, and storm surge. Advisories are also provided for sea ice on the Great Lake and Cook inlet in winter, and in the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas in summer. Attempts were made to deal with ocean currents in the Gulf Stream, areas of upwelling, and thermal structure at least down through the mixed layer.

CASE_ATTI: An Algorithm-Level Testbed for Multi-Sensor Data Fusion

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-05-01

Illumination Radar (STIR) control console, the SPS- 49 long-range radar, the Sea Giraffe medium-range radar and their associated CCS software modules. The...The current A WW sensor suite of the CPF comprises the SPS-49 long range 2-D radar, the Sea Giraffe medium range 2-D radar, the CANEWS ESM and the...and Sea Giraffe . . This represents an original novelty of our simulation environment. Conventional radar simulations such as CARPET are not fully

Sea otter mortality in fish and shellfish traps: Estimating potential impacts and exploring possible solutions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatfield, B.B.; Ames, J.A.; Estes, J.A.; Tinker, M.T.; Johnson, A.B.; Staedler, M.M.; Harris, M.D.

2011-01-01

Sea otters Enhydra lutris can be bycaught and drowned in fishing pots and traps, which may pose a threat to the welfare of otter populations. We explored this potential problem and its solutions using a wide variety of analyses. We exposed live California (USA) sea otters to finfish traps, lobster traps, and mock Dungeness crab traps in captive trials and found that the animals attempted to enter the circular and rectangular fyke openings, with some becoming entrapped. Using both live and dead sea otters, we found that a 3 ?? 9 inch (7.6 ?? 22.9 cm) fyke opening (1 inch narrower than the 4 ?? 9 inch [10.2 ?? 22.9 cm] openings currently used in California's commercial Dungeness crab fishery) would exclude most free-living (i.e. weaned from their mothers) otters while permitting the undiminished capture of crabs. Observer programs do not currently exist in California for these fisheries, so we calculated the effort required by an observer program to document sea otter bycatch over a range of hypothetical levels and evaluated the impact of those mortality rates on population growth. These analyses demonstrate that significant mortality from bycatch might easily go undetected, even with seemingly high levels of observer effort. As sea otters reoccupy portions of their former habitat in California, co-occurrence with finfish and shellfish traps with relatively large fyke openings will increase. ?? Inter-Research 2011.

Climate change projected effects on coastal foundation communities of the Greater Everglades using a 2060 scenario: need for a new management paradigm.

PubMed

Koch, M S; Coronado, C; Miller, M W; Rudnick, D T; Stabenau, E; Halley, R B; Sklar, F H

2015-04-01

Rising sea levels and temperature will be dominant drivers of coastal Everglades' foundation communities (i.e., mangrove forests, seagrass/macroalgae, and coral reefs) by 2060 based on a climate change scenario of +1.5 °C temperature, +1.5 foot (46 cm) in sea level, ±10 % in precipitation and 490 ppm CO2. Current mangrove forest soil elevation change in South Florida ranges from 0.9 to 2.5 mm year(-1) and would have to increase twofold to fourfold in order to accommodate a 2060 sea level rise rate. No evidence is available to indicate that coastal mangroves from South Florida and the wider Caribbean can keep pace with a rapid rate of sea level rise. Thus, particles and nutrients from destabilized coastlines could be mobilized and impact benthic habitats of southern Florida. Uncertainties in regional geomorphology and coastal current changes under higher sea levels make this prediction tentative without further research. The 2060 higher temperature scenario would compromise Florida's coral reefs that are already degraded. We suggest that a new paradigm is needed for resource management under climate change that manages coastlines for resilience to marine transgression and promotes active ecosystem management. In the case of the Everglades, greater freshwater flows could maximize mangrove peat accumulation, stabilize coastlines, and limit saltwater intrusion, while specific coral species may require propagation. Further, we suggest that regional climate drivers and oceanographic processes be incorporated into Everglades and South Florida management plans, as they are likely to impact coastal ecosystems, interior freshwater wetlands and urban coastlines over the next few decades.

Parcel-scale urban coastal flood mapping: Leveraging the multi-scale CoSMoS model for coastal flood forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallien, T.; Barnard, P. L.; Sanders, B. F.

2011-12-01

California coastal sea levels are projected to rise 1-1.4 meters in the next century and evidence suggests mean tidal range, and consequently, mean high water (MHW) is increasing along portions of Southern California Bight. Furthermore, emerging research indicates wind stress patterns associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) have suppressed sea level rise rates along the West Coast since 1980, and a reversal in this pattern would result in the resumption of regional sea level rise rates equivalent to or exceeding global mean sea level rise rates, thereby enhancing coastal flooding. Newport Beach is a highly developed, densely populated lowland along the Southern California coast currently subject to episodic flooding from coincident high tides and waves, and the frequency and intensity of flooding is expected to increase with projected future sea levels. Adaptation to elevated sea levels will require flood mapping and forecasting tools that are sensitive to the dominant factors affecting flooding including extreme high tides, waves and flood control infrastructure. Considerable effort has been focused on the development of nowcast and forecast systems including Scripps Institute of Oceanography's Coastal Data Information Program (CDIP) and the USGS Multi-hazard model, the Southern California Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS). However, fine scale local embayment dynamics and overtopping flows are needed to map unsteady flooding effects in coastal lowlands protected by dunes, levees and seawalls. Here, a recently developed two dimensional Godunov non-linear shallow water solver is coupled to water level and wave forecasts from the CoSMoS model to investigate the roles of tides, waves, sea level changes and flood control infrastructure in accurate flood mapping and forecasting. The results of this study highlight the important roles of topographic data, embayment hydrodynamics, water level uncertainties and critical flood processes required for meaningful prediction of sea level rise impacts and coastal flood forecasting.

High temporal resolution modeling of the impact of rain, tides, and sea level rise on water table flooding in the Arch Creek basin, Miami-Dade County Florida USA.

PubMed

Sukop, Michael C; Rogers, Martina; Guannel, Greg; Infanti, Johnna M; Hagemann, Katherine

2018-03-01

Modeling of groundwater levels in a portion of the low-lying coastal Arch Creek basin in northern Miami-Dade County in Southeast Florida USA, which is subject to repetitive flooding, reveals that rain-induced short-term water table rises can be viewed as a primary driver of flooding events under current conditions. Areas below 0.9m North American Vertical Datum (NAVD) elevation are particularly vulnerable and areas below 1.5m NAVD are vulnerable to exceptionally large rainfall events. Long-term water table rise is evident in the groundwater data, and the rate appears to be consistent with local rates of sea level rise. Linear extrapolation of long-term observed groundwater levels to 2060 suggest roughly a doubling of the number of days when groundwater levels exceed 0.9m NAVD and a threefold increase in the number of days when levels exceed 1.5m NAVD. Projected sea level rise of 0.61m by 2060 together with increased rainfall lead to a model prediction of frequent groundwater-related flooding in areas<0.9m NAVD. However, current simulations do not consider the range of rainfall events that have led to water table elevations>1.5m NAVD and widespread flooding of the area in the past. Tidal fluctuations in the water table are predicted to be more pronounced within 600m of a tidally influenced water control structure that is hydrodynamically connected to Biscayne Bay. The inland influence of tidal fluctuations appears to increase with increased sea level, but the principal driver of high groundwater levels under the 2060 scenario conditions remains groundwater recharge due to rainfall events. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Testing the nutritional-limitation, predator-avoidance, and storm-avoidance hypotheses for restricted sea otter habitat use in the Aleutian Islands, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, Nathan L.; Konar, Brenda; Tinker, M. Tim

2015-01-01

Sea otters (Enhydra lutris) inhabiting the Aleutian Islands have stabilized at low abundance levels following a decline and currently exhibit restricted habitat-utilization patterns. Possible explanations for restricted habitat use by sea otters can be classified into two fundamentally different processes, bottom-up and top-down forcing. Bottom-up hypotheses argue that changes in the availability or nutritional quality of prey resources have led to the selective use of habitats that support the highest quality prey. In contrast, top-down hypotheses argue that increases in predation pressure from killer whales have led to the selective use of habitats that provide the most effective refuge from killer whale predation. A third hypothesis suggests that current restricted habitat use is based on a need for protection from storms. We tested all three hypotheses for restricted habitat use by comparing currently used and historically used sea otter foraging locations for: (1) prey availability and quality, (2) structural habitat complexity, and (3) exposure to prevailing storms. Our findings suggest that current use is based on physical habitat complexity and not on prey availability, prey quality, or protection from storms, providing further evidence for killer whale predation as a cause for restricted sea otter habitat use in the Aleutian Islands.

Testing the nutritional-limitation, predator-avoidance, and storm-avoidance hypotheses for restricted sea otter habitat use in the Aleutian Islands, Alaska.

PubMed

Stewart, Nathan L; Konar, Brenda; Tinker, M Tim

2015-03-01

Sea otters (Enhydra lutris) inhabiting the Aleutian Islands have stabilized at low abundance levels following a decline and currently exhibit restricted habitat-utilization patterns. Possible explanations for restricted habitat use by sea otters can be classified into two fundamentally different processes, bottom-up and top-down forcing. Bottom-up hypotheses argue that changes in the availability or nutritional quality of prey resources have led to the selective use of habitats that support the highest quality prey. In contrast, top-down hypotheses argue that increases in predation pressure from killer whales have led to the selective use of habitats that provide the most effective refuge from killer whale predation. A third hypothesis suggests that current restricted habitat use is based on a need for protection from storms. We tested all three hypotheses for restricted habitat use by comparing currently used and historically used sea otter foraging locations for: (1) prey availability and quality, (2) structural habitat complexity, and (3) exposure to prevailing storms. Our findings suggest that current use is based on physical habitat complexity and not on prey availability, prey quality, or protection from storms, providing further evidence for killer whale predation as a cause for restricted sea otter habitat use in the Aleutian Islands.

Towards uncertainty estimation for operational forecast products - a multi-model-ensemble approach for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golbeck, Inga; Li, Xin; Janssen, Frank

2014-05-01

Several independent operational ocean models provide forecasts of the ocean state (e.g. sea level, temperature, salinity and ice cover) in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea on a daily basis. These forecasts are the primary source of information for a variety of information and emergency response systems used e.g. to issue sea level warnings or carry out oil drift forecast. The forecasts are of course highly valuable as such, but often suffer from a lack of information on their uncertainty. With the aim of augmenting the existing operational ocean forecasts in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea by a measure of uncertainty a multi-model-ensemble (MME) system for sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS) and water transports has been set up in the framework of the MyOcean-2 project. Members of MyOcean-2, the NOOS² and HIROMB/BOOS³ communities provide 48h-forecasts serving as inputs. Different variables are processed separately due to their different physical characteristics. Based on the so far collected daily MME products of SST and SSS, a statistical method, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is applied to assess their spatial and temporal variability. For sea surface currents, progressive vector diagrams at specific points are consulted to estimate the performance of the circulation models especially in hydrodynamic important areas, e.g. inflow/outflow of the Baltic Sea, Norwegian trench and English Channel. For further versions of the MME system, it is planned to extend the MME to other variables like e.g. sea level, ocean currents or ice cover based on the needs of the model providers and their customers. It is also planned to include in-situ data to augment the uncertainty information and for validation purposes. Additionally, weighting methods will be implemented into the MME system to develop more complex uncertainty measures. The methodology used to create the MME will be outlined and different ensemble products will be presented. In addition, some preliminary results based on the statistical analysis of the uncertainty measures provide first estimates of the regional and temporal performance of the ocean models for each parameter. ²Northwest European Shelf Operational Oceanography System ³High-resolution Operational Model of the Baltic / Baltic Operational Oceanographic System

Climate Sensitivity Runs and Regional Hydrologic Modeling for Predicting the Response of the Greater Florida Everglades Ecosystem to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obeysekera, Jayantha; Barnes, Jenifer; Nungesser, Martha

2015-04-01

It is important to understand the vulnerability of the water management system in south Florida and to determine the resilience and robustness of greater Everglades restoration plans under future climate change. The current climate models, at both global and regional scales, are not ready to deliver specific climatic datasets for water resources investigations involving future plans and therefore a scenario based approach was adopted for this first study in restoration planning. We focused on the general implications of potential changes in future temperature and associated changes in evapotranspiration, precipitation, and sea levels at the regional boundary. From these, we developed a set of six climate and sea level scenarios, used them to simulate the hydrologic response of the greater Everglades region including agricultural, urban, and natural areas, and compared the results to those from a base run of current conditions. The scenarios included a 1.5 °C increase in temperature, ±10 % change in precipitation, and a 0.46 m (1.5 feet) increase in sea level for the 50-year planning horizon. The results suggested that, depending on the rainfall and temperature scenario, there would be significant changes in water budgets, ecosystem performance, and in water supply demands met. The increased sea level scenarios also show that the ground water levels would increase significantly with associated implications for flood protection in the urbanized areas of southeastern Florida.

An operational coupled wave-current forecasting system for the northern Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, A.; Coluccelli, A.; Deserti, M.; Valentini, A.; Benetazzo, A.; Carniel, S.

2012-04-01

Since 2005 an Adriatic implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (AdriaROMS) is being producing operational short-term forecasts (72 hours) of some hydrodynamic properties (currents, sea level, temperature, salinity) of the Adriatic Sea at 2 km horizontal resolution and 20 vertical s-levels, on a daily basis. The main objective of AdriaROMS, which is managed by the Hydro-Meteo-Clima Service (SIMC) of ARPA Emilia Romagna, is to provide useful products for civil protection purposes (sea level forecasts, outputs to run other forecasting models as for saline wedge, oil spills and coastal erosion). In order to improve the forecasts in the coastal area, where most of the attention is focused, a higher resolution model (0.5 km, again with 20 vertical s-levels) has been implemented for the northern Adriatic domain. The new implementation is based on the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System (COAWST)and adopts ROMS for the hydrodynamic and Simulating WAve Nearshore (SWAN) for the wave module, respectively. Air-sea fluxes are computed using forecasts produced by the COSMO-I7 operational atmospheric model. At the open boundary of the high resolution model, temperature, salinity and velocity fields are provided by AdriaROMS while the wave characteristics are provided by an operational SWAN implementation (also managed by SIMC). Main tidal components are imposed as well, derived from a tidal model. Work in progress is oriented now on the validation of model results by means of extensive comparisons with acquired hydrographic measurements (such as CTDs or XBTs from sea-truth campaigns), currents and waves acquired at observational sites (including those of SIMC, CNR-ISMAR network and its oceanographic tower, located off the Venice littoral) and satellite-derived wave-heights data. Preliminary results on the forecast waves denote how, especially during intense storms, the effect of coupling can lead to significant variations in the wave heights. Part of the activity has been funded by the EU FP VII program (project "MICORE", contract n. 202798) and by the Regione Veneto regional law 15/2007 (Progetto "MARINA").

Geomorphological & Geoarchaeological Indicators of the Holocene Sea-Level Changes on Ras El Hekma Area, NW Coast of Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torab, Magdy

2016-02-01

Ras El Hekma area is a part of the NW coast of Egypt. It is located on the Egyptian Mediterranean Coast, approximately 220 km West of Alexandria City. It is shaped as a triangle with its headland extending into the Mediterranean sea for about 15 km, and is occupied by sedimentary rocks belonging to the Tertiary and Quaternary Eras. Its western coastline consists of Pleistocene Oolitic limestone ridges with separated steep scarps, while the eastern coastline consists of sandy beaches, coastal spits, coastal bars, tombolos and bays. The objective of this paper is to define some geomorphological and geoarchaelological indicators of The Holocene sea-level changes in the study area, especially the geomorphic landforms such as: marine notches, cliffs, sea caves and benches. This is to add to some archaeological remains that have been discovered by the paper's author under the current sea level. These remains include: submerged ruins of Greek and Roman harbors, wells and fish tanks near the coastline (Leuke Akte, Hermaea, Phoinikous and Zygris), in addition to an ancient Roman harbor used during the World War II in Tell El Zaytun area (Site #6). Evaluations of the discovered archaeological remains help our understanding of the evolution of the sea level during the Holocene. This study is based on observation of the relative sea-level curves drawn of the Holocene, detailed geomorphological and Geoarchaelogical surveying, sampling, dating and mapping as well as satellite image interpretation and GIS techniques.

An updated Holocene sea-level curve for the Delaware coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nikitina, D.L.; Pizzuto, J.E.; Schwimmer, R.A.; Ramsey, K.W.

2000-01-01

We present an updated Holocene sea-level curve for the Delaware coast based on new calibrations of 16 previously published radiocarbon dates (Kraft, 1976; Belknap and Kraft, 1977) and 22 new radiocarbon dates of basal peat deposits. A review of published and unpublished 137Cs and 210Pb analyses, and tide gauge data provide the basis for evaluating shorter-term (102 yr) sea-level trends. Paleosea-level elevations for the new basal peat samples were determined from the present vertical zonation of marsh plants relative to mean high water along the Delaware coast and the composition of plant fossils and foraminifera. Current trends in tidal range along the Delaware coast were used to reduce elevations from different locations to a common vertical datum of mean high water at Breakwater Harbor, Delaware. The updated curve is similar to Belknap and Kraft's [J. Sediment. Petrol., 47 (1977) 610-629] original sea-level curve from 12,000 to about 2000 yr BP. The updated curve documents a rate of sea-level rise of 0.9 mm/yr from 1250 yr BP to present (based on 11 dates), in good agreement with other recent sea-level curves from the northern and central U.S. Atlantic coast, while the previous curve documents rates of about 1.3 mm/yr (based on 4 dates). The precision of both estimates, however, is very low, so the significance of these differences is uncertain. A review of 210Pb and 137Cs analyses from salt marshes of Delaware indicates average marsh accretion rates of 3 mm/yr for the last 100 yr, in good agreement with shorter-term estimates of sea-level rise from tide gauge records. ?? 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.

High-resolution paleoenvironmental records during the late Quaternary from the marginal seas of East Asia: the intrusion of open-ocean current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, G. S.; Kim, S. P.; Choi, H. S.

2012-04-01

Four long mud-dominated sediment cores (35m-long YSDP 103, 32m-long SSDP 102, 72m-long SSDP103 and 52m-long SSDP 105) were recovered in the continental shelves of Korea and were examined through the analysis of AMS 14C dating, lithology, organic geochemistry and stable isotopes to reconstruct the paleoenvironmental histories during the late Quaternary. These drill cores acquired from the thick Holocene mud deposits allow us to obtain high-resolution paleoenvironmental records concerning the intrusion of open-ocean warm currents triggered by the last deglacial sea-level rise. Various organic geochemical results (TOC, C/N, C/S, HI, δ13Corg) of core YSDP 103, taken from the southeastern Yellow Sea, showed that terrigenous organic matters were significantly dominant in the southeastern Yellow Sea between 16,600 and 4,300 cal. yr BP probably due to the influence of freshwater derived from an adjacent river and then the dominance of organic matter origin changed to marine type affected by surface primary productivity after 4,300 cal. yr BP. These results may indicate that the marine environment of the southeastern Yellow Sea changed from brackish to a modern-type shelf environment since 4,300 cal. yr BP, implying the intrusion of the open-ocean current. The δ18O values of benthic foraminifer Cibicides lobatulus, however, showed that variation changed from high-amplitude to low-amplitude fluctuations at around 3,500 cal. yr. The time discrepancy of 800 years between organic geochemical proxies and stable isotope proxies is interpreted to reflect that a modern-type shelf environment was not fully developed in the southeastern Yellow Sea until 3,500 cal. yr BP, even though the open-ocean current (Yellow Sea Warm Current) began to flow into the Yellow Sea at 4,300 cal. Yr. BP. The results of core SSDP 102 collected in the Korean Strait reveal that the area experienced 4 stages of environmental change during the last 13,900 cal. yr BP. Occurrence of well-rounded, oxidized rock fragments at the core bottom indicates that the area was under a fluvial environment before 13,900 cal. yr BP. Between 13,900 and 7,000 cal. yr BP, the dominances of terrigenous organic matters and coarse fractions reflect that the area was changed into the estuarine (deltaic) environment which was directly affected by the Nakdong River. Between 7,000 and 6,100 cal. yr BP, the occurrence of a sand layer with remarkably high coarse fraction and low TOC contents reflects that the temporary erosion occurred in this area probably due to the deceleration of sea-level rising rate. Since 6,100 cal. yr BP, the prevailing occurrences of marine organic matters and the fine-grained sediments indicate that the study area was changed into a modern-type shelf environment under the influence of the open-ocean current (Tsushima Current). The organic chemical result of core SSDP103 extracted in the central South Sea of Korea close to the Seomjin River mouth, indicates that the area was under a brackish coastal environment like tidal flat and estuarine at the early stage of deposition, which is supported by high occurrence of oyster shell fragments and terrigeneous organic matter. Even though there is some difficulty of age control due to older ages at depth of 33.8m, various geochemical proxies showed that the area began to change into a modern-type marine environment by far before 5.21cal. kyr, supported by increasing TOC, C/N and δ13Corg. Based on the results of core SSDP 105 collected from the southeastern coast of Korea, the occurrence of large, well-rounded gravel at depths of 34.3 - 32 m reflects that the southeastern coast of Korea was under a shallow coastal environment before 17,500 cal. yr. During the transgressive stage of sea-level between 17,500 and 8,100 cal. yr, this area was more under a coastal environment of erosion rather than the deposition of the fine-grained sediments as indicated by the dominance of coarse fractions. Since 8,100 cal. yr when sea-level rose nearly to the present level, the southeastern coast area began to change into a modern-type shelf environment influenced by the intrusion of the Tsushima Current, which is supported by significantly high TOC contents, high CaCO3 contents, and predominance of marine-type organic matters. In summary, long mud-dominated Holocene cores provided the opportunity to elucidate the onset of inflow of the open-ocean warm current during Holocene marine transgression in the marginal seas around the Korean Peninsula. The results of four long cores suggest that the timings of intrusion of warm currents are different from each other due to the influence of brackish coastal currents and river discharge rather than increased water depth. Also, a relative abundance of marine-type organic matter characteristic of oxygen and carbon isotopes showed differences even after establishing a modern-type marine environment, implying that properties of their environments are altered according to the changes of strength between river discharge and open-ocean current at their location.

76 FR 23940 - Fisheries of the Northeastern United States; Atlantic Sea Scallop Fishery; Framework Adjustment 22

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-29

... measures based on updated scallop biomass projections. The proposed FY 2013 DAS allocations would be set at a precautionary level (i.e., 75 percent of what current biomass levels project would be the DAS... of what current biomass projections indicate could be allocated to each LA scallop vessel for the...

LLWBCS changes through surface mesoscale activity and baroclinic tides in the Solomon Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gourdeau, L.; Djath, B.; Ganachaud, A. S.; Tchilibou, M. L.; Verron, J. A.; Jouanno, J.

2016-02-01

In the south west Pacific, the Solomon Sea is on the pathway of the Low Latitudes Western Boundary Currents that connect the subtropics to the equator. Changes in their strengths, or in their water mass properties may have implication for ENSO and its low frequency modulation. During their transit in the Solomon Sea, the salinity maximum at thermocline level, characteristic of the South Pacific Tropical Waters (SPTW), is largely eroded. Different mechanisms could explain such salt erosion whose current/bathymetry interaction, internal tides, eddy activity. The Solomon Sea is an area of high level of eddy kinetic energy (EKE), especially in the surface layers, and its complex bathymetry is favourable for generation and dissipation of internal tides. Based on high resolution modelling, glider, and altimetric data mesoscale eddies observed at the surface are analysed in their 4D aspects. Their role on water mass transformation is explored. These eddies may affect the surface layers (σ<23.3) and the upper thermocline waters (23.3< σ <24.3), but they cannot explained the erosion of the salinity maximum below. Simulations with and without explicit tides provide a description of baroclinic tides in the Solomon Sea. Their role on water mixing is evaluated, especially for the SPTW.

A Mostly Quiet Pacific

NASA Image and Video Library

2003-11-18

Some climate forecast models indicate there is an above average chance that there could be a weak to borderline El Niño by the end of November 2003. However, the trade winds, blowing from east to west across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, remain strong. Thus, there remains some uncertainty among climate scientists as to whether the warm temperature anomaly will form again this year. The latest remote sensing data from NASA's Jason satellite show near normal conditions across the equatorial Pacific. There are currently no visible signs in sea surface height of an impending El Niño. This equatorial quiet contrasts with the Bering Sea, Gulf of Alaska and U.S. West Coast where lower-than-normal sea surface levels and cool ocean temperatures continue (indicated by blue and purple areas). The image above is a global map of sea surface height, accurate to within 30 millimeters. The image represents data collected and composited over a 10-day period, ending on Nov. 3, 2003. The height of the water relates to the temperature of the water. As the ocean warms, its level rises; and as it cools, its level falls. Yellow and red areas indicate where the waters are relatively warmer and have expanded above sea level, green indicates near normal sea level, and blue and purple areas show where the waters are relatively colder and the surface is lower than sea level. The blue areas are between 5 and 13 centimeters (2 and 5 inches) below normal, whereas the purple areas range from 14 to 18 centimeters (6 to 7 inches) below normal. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA04878

Seasonal and Interannual Variation of Currents and Water Properties off the Mid-East Coast of Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J. H.; Chang, K. I.; Nam, S.

2016-02-01

Since 1999, physical parameters such as current, temperature, and salinity off the mid-east coast of Korea have been continuously observed from the long-term buoy station called `East-Sea Real-time Ocean monitoring Buoy (ESROB)'. Applying harmonic analysis to 6-year-long (2007-2012) depth-averaged current data from the ESROB, a mean seasonal cycle of alongshore currents, characterized by poleward current in average and equatorward current in summer, is extracted which accounts for 5.8% of the variance of 40 hours low-pass filtered currents. In spite of the small variance explained, a robust seasonality of summertime equatorward reversal typifies the low-passed alongshore currents along with low-density water. To reveal the dynamics underlying the seasonal variation, each term of linearized, depth-averaged momentum equations is estimated using the data from ESROB, adjacent tide gauge stations, and serial hydrographic stations. The result indicates that the reversal of alongshore pressure gradient is a major driver of the equatorward reversals in summer. The reanalysis wind product (MERRA) and satellite altimeter-derived sea surface height (AVISO) data show correlated features between positive (negative) wind stress curl and sea surface depression (uplift). Quantitative estimates reveal that the wind-stress curl accounts for 42% of alongshore sea level variation. Summertime low-density water originating from the northern coastal region is a footprint of the buoyancy-driven equatorward current. An interannual variation (anomalies from the mean seasonal cycle) of alongshore currents and its possible driving mechanisms will be discussed.

Developing Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change in the New York City Infrastructure-Shed: Process, Approach, Tools, and Strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Solecki, William D.; Blake, Reginald; Bowman, Malcolm; Faris, Craig; Gornitz, Vivien; Horton, Radley; Jacob, Klaus; LeBlanc, Alice; Leichenko, Robin;

Coping with Higher Sea Levels and Increased Coastal Flooding in New York City. Chapter 13

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gornitz, Vivien; Horton, Radley; Bader, Daniel A.; Orton, Philip; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

2017-01-01

The 837 km New York City shoreline is lined by significant economic assets and dense population vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal flooding. After Hurricane Sandy in 2012, New York City developed a comprehensive plan to mitigate future climate risks, drawing upon the scientific expertise of the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), a special advisory group comprised of university and private-sector experts. This paper highlights current NPCC findings regarding sea level rise and coastal flooding, with some of the City's ongoing and planned responses. Twentieth century sea level rise in New York City (2.8 cm/decade) exceeded the global average (1.7 cm/decade), underscoring the enhanced regional risk to coastal hazards. NPCC (2015) projects future sea level rise at the Battery of 28 - 53 cm by the 2050s and 46 - 99 cm by the 2080s, relative to 2000 - 2004 (mid-range, 25th - 75th percentile). High-end SLR estimates (90th percentile) reach 76 cm by the 2050s, and 1.9 m by 2100. Combining these projections with updated FEMA flood return period curves, assuming static flood dynamics and storm behavior, flood heights for the 100-year storm (excluding waves) attain 3.9-4.5 m (mid-range), relative to the NAVD88 tidal datum, and 4.9 m (high end) by the 2080s, up from 3.4 m in the 2000s. Flood heights with a 1% annual chance of occurrence in the 2000s increase to 2.0 - 5.4% (mid-range) and 12.7% per year (high-end), by the 2080s. Guided by NPCC (2013, 2015) findings, New York City has embarked on a suite of initiatives to strengthen coastal defenses, employing various approaches tailored to specific neighborhood needs. NPCC continues its collaboration with the city to investigate vulnerability to extreme climate events, including heat waves, inland floods and coastal storms. Current research entails higher-resolution neighborhood-level coastal flood mapping, changes in storm characteristics, surge height interactions with sea level rise, and stronger engagement with stakeholders and community-based organizations.

Occurrence of Quaternary turbidite deposits in the central South China Sea: Response to global sea-level changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Z.; Zhang, X.; Christophe, C.; Peleo-Alampay, A.; Guballa, J. D. S.; Li, P.; Liu, C.

2016-12-01

Terrigenous turbidite layers frequently occur at the upper 150-m-thick sedimentary sequence of Hole U1431D (15º22.54'N, 117 º00.00'E, 4240.5 m water depth), International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 349, near the relict spreading ridge in the central South China Sea. This study implies visual statistics combined with grain size, clay mineralogy, and Nd-Sr isotope analyses to reconstruct the occurrence of these turbidite layers. The age-model of combined calcareous nannofossils, planktonic foraminifers, and paleomagnetism suggests that the sedimentary sequence spans the entire Quaternary with an age of 2.6 Ma at the depth of 150 mcd below the seafloor. Our results show that the turbidite deposits are dominated by silt with sandy silt and silty clay, poorly sorted, and grading upward with erosion base. The occurrence of turbidite layers are highly frequent with about 3.06 layers per meter and an average thickness of 14.64 cm per layer above 96 mcd ( 1.6 Ma), while the lower part turbudite layers are less frequently developed with 1.16 layers per meter and an average thickness of 5.67 cm. Provenance analysis indicates that Taiwan, about 900 km northward to the studied site, is the major source for these terrigenous sediments, implying the long run-out turbidity current activity over the very low-gradient deep-sea plain of the South China Sea. The frequency of the turbidite layer occurrence is well correlated to the Quaternary global sea-level change history, with the high frequency occurred during the lower sea-level stands. Our study suggests that the glacial-interglacial-scale sea-level change has controlled terrigenous sediment input from Taiwan and the northern shelf of the South China Sea during the Quaternary. The increase of turbidite layer frequency since 1.6 Ma in the central South China Sea could be triggered by the enlarged amplitude of sea-level change.

[Geochemical distribution of dissolved bismuth in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea].

PubMed

Wu, Xiao-Dan; Song, Jin-Ming; Wu, Bin; Li, Xue-Gang

2014-01-01

Occurrence level, geochemical distribution of dissolved bismuth and its coupling relationship to eco-environment were investigated in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea to explore the source and influencing factors. The results showed that the concentration of dissolved bismuth was within the range of 0-0. 029 microg x L(-1) at the surface and 0.001-0.189 microg x L(-1) at the bottom, with the averages of 0.008 and 0.016 microg x L(-1), respectively. Horizontally, low value of dissolved bismuth exhibited the bidirectional extension feature, indicating that it could trace the path of Changjiang Diluted Water. High value of dissolved bismuth was observed where the Subei Costal Current and Yellow Sea Warm Current flowed and the Changjiang Diluted Water and Zhejiang-Fujian Coastal Current met, suggesting that it was controlled by the cycle of current system. Vertically, the coastal water was fully mixed by water convection and eddy mixing, and was divided from the stratified water by strong tidal front, which blocked the transport of dissolved bismuth to the open sea. Thus, the concentration in front area was significantly higher than that in the open sea. Diurnal variation of dissolved bismuth was related to the hydrodynamic conditions (tide, suspension and thermocline) instead of the environmental factors (temperature and salinity). Positive relationship to SPM (suspended particulate matter) clarified that bismuth was prone to release from solid phase to liquid phase. Furthermore, conditions with temperature ranging 22-27 degrees C, salinity ranging 28-31 and pH ranging 7.9-8.1 were shown to be optimal for the release process.

Greenland uplift and regional sea level changes from ICESat observations and GIA modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spada, G.; Ruggieri, G.; Sørensen, L. S.; Nielsen, K.; Melini, D.; Colleoni, F.

2012-06-01

We study the implications of a recently published mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), derived from repeated surface elevation measurements from NASA's ice cloud and land elevation satellite (ICESat) for the time period between 2003 and 2008. To characterize the effects of this new, high-resolution GrIS mass balance, we study the time-variations of various geophysical quantities in response to the current mass loss. They include vertical uplift and subsidence, geoid height variations, global patterns of sea level change (or fingerprints), and regional sea level variations along the coasts of Greenland. Long-wavelength uplifts and gravity variations in response to current or past ice thickness variations are obtained solving the sea level equation, which accounts for both the elastic and the viscoelastic components of deformation. To capture the short-wavelength components of vertical uplift in response to current ice mass loss, which is not resolved by satellite gravity observations, we have specifically developed a high-resolution regional elastic rebound (ER) model. The elastic component of vertical uplift is combined with estimates of the viscoelastic displacement fields associated with the process of glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA), according to a set of published ice chronologies and associated mantle rheological profiles. We compare the sensitivity of global positioning system (GPS) observations along the coasts of Greenland to the ongoing ER and GIA. In notable contrast with past reports, we show that vertical velocities obtained by GPS data from five stations with sufficiently long records and from one tide gauge at the GrIS margins can be reconciled with model predictions based on the ICE-5G deglaciation model and the ER associated with the new ICESat-derived mass balance.

A National Strategy is Needed to Prevent the Coming Water War: The Mississippi River Watershed Shows Us Why

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-03-01

200 words ) The Mississippi River watershed is currently managed as six separate basins including the Missouri, Illinois, Ohio, Arkansas, and...that Congress set in 1896 when they gave the USACE authorization to maintain a 9 foot deep by 250 foot wide channel from Cairo to the mouth of the...Sea-level rise will impact the watershed. As the sea-level rises over time, it puts pressure on the outflow of the watershed at the mouth of the

The mean sea surface height and geoid along the Geosat subtrack from Bermuda to Cape Cod

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, Kathryn A.; Joyce, Terrence M.; Schubert, David M.; Caruso, Michael J.

1991-07-01

Measurements of near-surface velocity and concurrent sea level along an ascending Geosat subtrack were used to estimate the mean sea surface height and the Earth's gravitational geoid. Velocity measurements were made on three traverses of a Geosat subtrack within 10 days, using an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP). A small bias in the ADCP velocity was removed by considering a mass balance for two pairs of triangles for which expendable bathythermograph measurements were also made. Because of the large curvature of the Gulf Stream, the gradient wind balance was used to estimate the cross-track component of geostrophic velocity from the ADCP vectors; this component was then integrated to obtain the sea surface height profile. The mean sea surface height was estimated as the difference between the instantaneous sea surface height from ADCP and the Geosat residual sea level, with mesoscale errors reduced by low-pass filtering. The error estimates were divided into a bias, tilt, and mesoscale residual; the bias was ignored because profiles were only determined within a constant of integration. The calculated mean sea surface height estimate agreed with an independent estimate of the mean sea surface height from Geosat, obtained by modeling the Gulf Stream as a Gaussian jet, within the expected errors in the estimates: the tilt error was 0.10 m, and the mesoscale error was 0.044 m. To minimize mesoscale errors in the estimate, the alongtrack geoid estimate was computed as the difference between the mean sea level from the Geosat Exact Repeat Mission and an estimate of the mean sea surface height, rather than as the difference between instantaneous profiles of sea level and sea surface height. In the critical region near the Gulf Stream the estimated error reduction using this method was about 0.07 m. Differences between the geoid estimate and a gravimetric geoid were not within the expected errors: the rms mesoscale difference was 0.24 m rms.

Internal tides in the Solomon Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lionel, Tchilibou Michel; Gourdeau, Lionel; Djath, Bugshin; Lyard, Florent; Allain, Damien; Koch Larrouy, Ariane; Yoga Nogroho, Dwi; Morrow, Rosemary

2017-04-01

In the south west Pacific, the Solomon Sea lies on the pathway of the Low Latitudes Western Boundary Currents (LLWBCs) that connect the subtropics to the equator. The Solomon Sea have a particular interest in a climatic context, since they are a critical pathway for ENSO and its low frequency modulation. The western Pacific is a place of energetic internal tides generated over its complex bottom topographic features. In the Indonesian Archipelago, they are particularly active in defining the properties of the waters that move from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean. The salinity maximum at the thermocline level, which is characteristic of the South Pacific Tropical Waters (SPTW) flowing within the LLWBCs and feeding the Equatorial UnderCurrent, is largely eroded within the Solomon Sea. Different mechanisms could explain such salt erosion including current/bathymetry interactions, internal tides, and eddy activity. The motivation of this study is to investigate the potential role of internal tides for such water mass transformation. Results from a 1/36° resolution regional model including explicit tides are presented. As a first step, the generation and propagation of internal tides in the Solomon Sea are determined, and the conversion rate from barotropic to baroclinic energy is estimated.

Coral colonisation of a shallow reef flat in response to rising sea level: quantification from 35 years of remote sensing data at Heron Island, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scopélitis, J.; Andréfouët, S.; Phinn, S.; Done, T.; Chabanet, P.

2011-12-01

Observations made on Heron Island reef flat during the 1970s-1990s highlighted the importance of rapid change in hydrodynamics and accommodation space for coral development. Between the 1940s and the 1990s, the minimum reef-flat top water level varied by some tens of centimetres, successively down then up, in rapid response to local engineering works. Coral growth followed sea-level variations and was quantified here for several coral communities using horizontal two-dimensional above water remotely sensed observations. This required seven high spatial resolution aerial photographs and Quickbird satellite images spanning 35 years: 1972, 1979, 1990, 1992, 2002, 2006 and 2007. The coral growth dynamics followed four regimes corresponding to artificially induced changes in sea levels: 1972-1979 (lowest growth rate): no detectable coral development, due to high tidal currents and minimum mean low-tide water level; 1979-1991 (higher growth rate): horizontal coral development promoted by calmer hydrodynamic conditions; 1991-2001(lower growth rate): vertical coral development, induced by increased local sea level by ~12 cm due to construction of new bund walls; 2001-2007 (highest growth rate): horizontal coral development after that vertical growth had become limited by sea level. This unique time-series displays a succession of ecological stage comprising a `catch-up' dynamic in response to a rapid local sea-level rise in spite of the occurrences of the most severe bleaching events on record (1998, 2002) and the decreasing calcification rates reported in massive corals in the northern part of the Great Barrier Reef.

Advanced Regional and Decadal Predictions of Coastal Inundation for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, B. P.; Donnelly, J. P.; Corbett, D. R.; Kemp, A.; Lindeman, K.; Mann, M. E.; Peltier, W. R.; Rahmstorf, S.

2012-12-01

Future inundation of the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts will depend upon both sea-level rise and the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones, each of which will be affected by climate change. In this proposal, we will employ new interdisciplinary approaches to bring about a step change in the reliability of predictions of such inundation. The rate of sea-level rise along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts has increased throughout the 20th century. Whilst there is widespread agreement that it continue to accelerate during the 21st century, great uncertainty surrounds its magnitude and geographic distribution. Key uncertainties include the role of continental ice sheets, mountain glaciers and ocean density changes. Insufficient understanding of these complex physical processes precludes accurate prediction of sea-level rise. New approaches using semi-empirical models that relate instrumental records of climate and sea-level rise have projected up to 2 m of sea-level rise by AD 2100. But the time span of instrumental sea-level records is insufficient to adequately constrain the climate:sea-level relationship. Here, we produce new high resolution proxy data of sea-level and temperature to provide crucial additional constraints to such semi-empirical models. Our dataset will span the alternation between the "Medieval Climate Anomaly" and "Little Ice Age". Before the models can provide appropriate data for coastal management and planning, they must be complemented with regional estimates of sea-level rise. Therefore, the proxy sea-level data has been collected from six study areas (Massachusetts, New Jersey, North Carolina, Georgia and Atlantic and Gulf coasts of Florida) to accommodate the required extent of regional variability. In the case of inundation arising from tropical cyclones, the historical and observational records are insufficient for predicting their nature and recurrence, because they are such extreme and rare events. Moreover, in the future, the resultant storm surges will be superimposed on background sea-level rise. To overcome these problems, we couple regional sea-level rise projections with hurricane simulations and storm surge models to map coastal inundation for the current climate and the best and worst case climate scenarios of the IPCC AR4. The products of this proposal will raise the bar for the scientific prediction of region-specific inundation probabilities in terms of coordinated semi-empirical proxy data, hindcast- and forecast-driven sea-level modeling and tropical cyclone forecasting. To optimize transfer of this often complex information for effective adaptive decision-making by managers and planners, we will systematically review >800 adaptation reports and consult early and often with primary endusers to identify their exact needs. We will produce high penetration print and web products for diverse audiences, specific to each region.

Distribution of Reynolds stress carried by mesoscale variability in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Thomas J.; Stewart, Robert H.; Shum, C. K.; Tapley, Byron D.

1992-01-01

Satellite altimeter data collected by the Geosat Exact Repeat Mission were used to investigate turbulent stress resulting from the variability of surface geostrophic currents in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The altimeter measured sea level along the subsatellite track. The variability of the along-track slope of sea level is directly proportional to the variability of surface geostrophic currents in the cross-track direction. Because the grid of crossover points is dense at high latitudes, the satellite data could be used for mapping the temporal and spatial variability of the current. Two and a half years of data were used to compute the statistical structure of the variability. The statistics included the probability distribution functions for each component of the current, the time-lagged autocorrelation functions of the variability, and the Reynolds stress produced by the variability. The results demonstrate that stress is correlated with bathymetry. In some areas the distribution of negative stress indicate that eddies contribute to an acceleration of the mean flow, strengthening the hypothesis that baroclinic instability makes important contributions to strong oceanic currents.

Sea-Level Acceleration Hotspot along the Atlantic Coast of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sallenger, A. H.; Doran, K. J.; Howd, P.

2012-12-01

Spatial variations of sea level rise (SLR) can be forced by dynamic processes arising from circulation and variations in temperature and/or salinity, and by static equilibrium processes arising from mass re-distributions changing gravity and the earth's rotation and shape. The sea-level variations can form unique spatial patterns, yet there are very few field observations verifying predicted patterns, or fingerprints. We present evidence of SLR acceleration in a 1,000-km-long hotspot on the North American Atlantic coast north of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina to above Boston, Massachusetts. By using accelerations, or rate differences, sea level signals that are linear over sub-century records, like the relative sea level changes arising from vertical land movements of glacial isostatic adjustment, do not affect our results. For a 60-yr regression window (between 1950-1979 and 1980-2009), mean increase in the rate of SLR in the hotspot was 1.97 ± 0.64 mm/yr. (For a 40-yr window, the mean rate increase was 3.80 ± 1.06 mm/yr.) South of Cape Hatteras to Key West, Florida, rate differences for either 60 yr or 40 yr windows were not statistically different from zero (e.g. for 60 yr window: mean= 0.11 ± 0.92 mm/yr). This pattern is similar to a fingerprint of dynamic SLR established by sea-level projections in several climate model studies. Correlations were consistent with accelerated SLR associated with a slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current.

Quantifying and Projecting Relative Sea-Level Rise in The Deltaic Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shum, C. K.; Chung-Yen, K.; Calmant, S.; Yang, T. Y.; Guo, Q.; Jia, Y.; Ballu, V.; Guo, J.; Karptychev, M.; Krien, Y.; Kusche, J.; Tseng, K. H.; Wan, J.; Uebbing, B.

2017-12-01

Half of the world's population lives within 200 km of coastlines. Accelerated sea-level rise, compounded by effects of population growth, severe land subsidence due to fluvial sediment compaction/load, and anthropogenic oil and natural gas and ground water extraction, tectonic motion, and the increasing threat of more intense and more frequent cyclone-driven storm surges, have exacerbated the vulnerability of many of world's deltaic regions, including the Bangladesh and the Mississippi River Deltas. At present, understanding and quantifying the natural and anthropogenic processes governing these solid Earth vertical motion processes remain elusive to enable addressing coastal vulnerability due to current and future projection of relative sea-level rise for deltaic regions at the regional scales. Bangladesh, a low-lying and one of the most densely populated countries in the world located at the Bay of Bengal, is prone to transboundary monsoonal flooding, and is believed to be aggravated by more frequent and intensified cyclones resulting from anthropogenic climate change. The Mississippi River Deltaic region has been severely subsiding due primarily to fluvial sediment compaction and load during the last 10 centuries, oil/gas and groundwater extractions, and commercial developments, making it vulnerable to sea-level rise hazards. Here we present results of global geocentric sea-level rise, 1950-2016, separating vertical land motion at global tide gauge datum, by integrating tide gauge and radar altimeter records in a novel sea-level reconstruction scheme, focusing on the Mississippi River and the Bangladesh Deltas. We then integrate the resulting sea level estimates with historic imageries, GPS and InSAR data, as well as sediment isostatic and load model predicted present-day land subsidence, to constrain the 3D land motion to study the impacts of various scenarios of future relative sea level projections on the Bangladesh Delta to the end of the 21st Century and beyond.

Most atolls will be uninhabitable by the mid-21st century because of sea-level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storlazzi, Curt; Gingerich, Stephen B.; van Dongeren, Ap; Cheriton, Olivia; Swarzenski, Peter W.; Quataert, Ellen; Voss, Clifford I.; Field, Donald W.; Annamalai, Hariharasubramanian; Piniak, Greg A.; McCall, Robert T.

2018-01-01

Sea levels are rising, with the highest rates in the tropics, where thousands of low-lying coral atoll islands are located. Most studies on the resilience of these islands to sea-level rise have projected that they will experience minimal inundation impacts until at least the end of the 21st century. However, these have not taken into account the additional hazard of wave-driven overwash or its impact on freshwater availability. We project the impact of sea-level rise and wave-driven flooding on atoll infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of climate change scenarios. We show that, on the basis of current greenhouse gas emission rates, the nonlinear interactions between sea-level rise and wave dynamics over reefs will lead to the annual wave-driven overwash of most atoll islands by the mid-21st century. This annual flooding will result in the islands becoming uninhabitable because of frequent damage to infrastructure and the inability of their freshwater aquifers to recover between overwash events. This study provides critical information for understanding the timing and magnitude of climate change impacts on atoll islands that will result in significant, unavoidable geopolitical issues if it becomes necessary to abandon and relocate low-lying island states.

Clusters of community exposure to coastal flooding hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios—implications for adaptation networks in the San Francisco Bay region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hummel, Michelle; Wood, Nathan J.; Schweikert, Amy; Stacey, Mark T.; Jones, Jeanne; Barnard, Patrick L.; Erikson, Li H.

2018-01-01

Sea level is projected to rise over the coming decades, further increasing the extent of flooding hazards in coastal communities. Efforts to address potential impacts from climate-driven coastal hazards have called for collaboration among communities to strengthen the application of best practices. However, communities currently lack practical tools for identifying potential partner communities based on similar hazard exposure characteristics. This study uses statistical cluster analysis to identify similarities in community exposure to flooding hazards for a suite of sea level rise and storm scenarios. We demonstrate this approach using 63 jurisdictions in the San Francisco Bay region of California (USA) and compare 21 distinct exposure variables related to residents, employees, and structures for six hazard scenario combinations of sea level rise and storms. Results indicate that cluster analysis can provide an effective mechanism for identifying community groupings. Cluster compositions changed based on the selected societal variables and sea level rise scenarios, suggesting that a community could participate in multiple networks to target specific issues or policy interventions. The proposed clustering approach can serve as a data-driven foundation to help communities identify other communities with similar adaptation challenges and to enhance regional efforts that aim to facilitate adaptation planning and investment prioritization.

Most atolls will be uninhabitable by the mid-21st century because of sea-level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding.

PubMed

Storlazzi, Curt D; Gingerich, Stephen B; van Dongeren, Ap; Cheriton, Olivia M; Swarzenski, Peter W; Quataert, Ellen; Voss, Clifford I; Field, Donald W; Annamalai, Hariharasubramanian; Piniak, Greg A; McCall, Robert

2018-04-01

Sea levels are rising, with the highest rates in the tropics, where thousands of low-lying coral atoll islands are located. Most studies on the resilience of these islands to sea-level rise have projected that they will experience minimal inundation impacts until at least the end of the 21st century. However, these have not taken into account the additional hazard of wave-driven overwash or its impact on freshwater availability. We project the impact of sea-level rise and wave-driven flooding on atoll infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of climate change scenarios. We show that, on the basis of current greenhouse gas emission rates, the nonlinear interactions between sea-level rise and wave dynamics over reefs will lead to the annual wave-driven overwash of most atoll islands by the mid-21st century. This annual flooding will result in the islands becoming uninhabitable because of frequent damage to infrastructure and the inability of their freshwater aquifers to recover between overwash events. This study provides critical information for understanding the timing and magnitude of climate change impacts on atoll islands that will result in significant, unavoidable geopolitical issues if it becomes necessary to abandon and relocate low-lying island states.

Most atolls will be uninhabitable by the mid-21st century because of sea-level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Sea levels are rising, with the highest rates in the tropics, where thousands of low-lying coral atoll islands are located. Most studies on the resilience of these islands to sea-level rise have projected that they will experience minimal inundation impacts until at least the end of the 21st century. However, these have not taken into account the additional hazard of wave-driven overwash or its impact on freshwater availability. We project the impact of sea-level rise and wave-driven flooding on atoll infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of climate change scenarios. We show that, on the basis of current greenhouse gas emission rates, the nonlinear interactions between sea-level rise and wave dynamics over reefs will lead to the annual wave-driven overwash of most atoll islands by the mid-21st century. This annual flooding will result in the islands becoming uninhabitable because of frequent damage to infrastructure and the inability of their freshwater aquifers to recover between overwash events. This study provides critical information for understanding the timing and magnitude of climate change impacts on atoll islands that will result in significant, unavoidable geopolitical issues if it becomes necessary to abandon and relocate low-lying island states. PMID:29707635

Sea-Level Rise and Flood Potential along the California Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delepine, Q.; Leung, C.

2013-12-01

Sea-level rise is becoming an ever-increasing problem in California. Sea-level is expected to rise significantly in the next 100 years, which will raise flood elevations in coastal communities. This will be an issue for private homeowners, businesses, and the state. One study suggests that Venice Beach could lose a total of at least $440 million in tourism spending and tax dollars from flooding and beach erosion if sea level rises 1.4 m by 2100. In addition, several airports, such as San Francisco International Airport, are located in coastal regions that have flooded in the past and will likely be flooded again in the next 30 years, but sea-level rise is expected to worsen the effects of flooding in the coming decades It is vital for coastal communities to understand the risks associated with sea-level rise so that they can plan to adapt to it. By obtaining accurate LiDAR elevation data from the NOAA Digital Coast Website (http://csc.noaa.gov/dataviewer/?keyword=lidar#), we can create flood maps to simulate sea level rise and flooding. The data are uploaded to ArcGIS and contour lines are added for different elevations that represent future coastlines during 100-year flooding. The following variables are used to create the maps: 1. High-resolution land surface elevation data - obtained from NOAA 2. Local mean high water level - from USGS 3. Local 100-year flood water level - from the Pacific Institute 4. Sea-level rise projections for different future dates (2030, 2050, and 2100) - from the National Research Council The values from the last three categories are added to represent sea-level rise plus 100-year flooding. These values are used to make the contour lines that represent the projected flood elevations, which are then exported as KML files, which can be opened in Google Earth. Once these KML files are made available to the public, coastal communities will gain an improved understanding of how flooding and sea-level rise might affect them in the future. This would allow them to plan ahead to reduce the level of risk to homes, industry, and infrastructure San Francisco International Airport will be most likely be flooded in the next 30 years. Blue lines indicate current Mean High Water Levels. Yellow lines indicate the Mean High Water level combined with flood levels for 2030. Green, 2050, and Red lines, 2100

The Blackwater NWR inundation model. Rising sea level on a low-lying coast: land use planning for wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larsen, Curt; Clark, Inga; Guntenspergen, Glenn; Cahoon, Don; Caruso, Vincent; Hupp, Cliff; Yanosky, Tom

2004-01-01

The Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge (BNWR), on the Eastern Shore of Chesapeake Bay (figure 1), occupies an area less than 1 meter above sea level. The Refuge has been featured prominently in studies of the impact of sea level rise on coastal wetlands. Most notably, the refuge has been sited by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as a key example of 'wetland loss' attributable to rising sea level due to global temperature increase. Comparative studies of aerial photos taken since 1938 show an expanding area of open water in the central area of the refuge. The expanding area of open water can be shown to parallel the record of sea level rise over the past 60 years. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) manages the refuge to support migratory waterfowl and to preserve endangered upland species. High marsh vegetation is critical to FWS waterfowl management strategies. A broad area once occupied by high marsh has decreased with rising sea level. The FWS needs a planning tool to help predict current and future areas of high marsh available for waterfowl. 'Wetland loss' is a relative term. It is dependant on the boundaries chosen for measurement. Wetland vegetation, zoned by elevation and salinity (figure 3), respond to rising sea level. Wetlands migrate inland and upslope and may vary in areas depending on the adjacent land slopes. Refuge managers need a geospatial tool that allows them to predict future areas that will be converted to high and intertidal marsh. Shifts in location and area of coverage must be anticipated. Viability of a current marsh area is also important. When will sea level rise make short-term management strategies to maintain an area impractical? The USGS has developed an inundation model for the BNWR centered on the refuge and surrounding areas. Such models are simple in concept, but they require a detailed topographic map upon which to superimpose future sea level positions. The new system of LIDAR mapping of land and shallow water surfaces has solved this problem. Our team has developed a detailed LIDAR map of the BNWR area at a 30 centimeter (ca. 1 ft) contour interval (figure 2). The new map allows us to identify the present marsh vegetation zones and to predict the location and area of future zones on a decade-by- decade basis over the next century at increments of sea level rise on the order of 3 cm/decade (ca. 1 inch). We have developed two scenarios for the model. The first is a steady-state model that uses the historic rate of sea level rise of 3.1 mm/yr to predict marsh areas. The second is a 'global warming' scenario utilizing a conservative IPCC model with an exponentially-increasing rate of sea level rise. Under either scenario, the BNWR is progressively inundated with an expanding core of open water. Although their positions change in the future, the areas of intertidal marsh as well as those of the critical high marsh remain fairly constant until the year 2050. Beyond that time, the low-lying land surface is overtopped by rising sea level and the area is dominated by open water. Our model suggests that wetland habitat in the Blackwater area might be maintained and sustained through a combination of public and private preservation efforts through easements in combination with judicious Federal land acquisition into the predicted areas of suitable marsh formation - but for only the next 50 years. Beyond that time much of this area will become open water.

SeaWiFS Postlaunch Technical Report Series. Volume 4; The 1997 Prelaunch Radiometric Calibration of SeaWiFS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hooker, Stanford B. (Editor); Firestone, Elaine R. (Editor); Johnson, B. Carol; Early, Edward E.; Eplee, Robert E., Jr.; Barnes, Robert A.; Caffrey, Robert T.

1999-01-01

The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) was originally calibrated by the instrument's manufacturer, Santa Barbara Research Center (SBRC), in November 1993. In preparation for an August 1997 launch, the SeaWiFS Project and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) undertook a second calibration of SeaWiFS in January and April 1997 at the facility of the spacecraft integrator, Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC). This calibration occurred in two phases, the first after the final thermal vacuum test, and the second after the final vibration test of the spacecraft. For the calibration, SeaWiFS observed an integrating sphere from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) at four radiance levels. The spectral radiance of the sphere at these radiance levels was also measured by the SeaWiFS Transfer Radiometer (SXR). In addition, during the calibration, SeaWiFS and the SXR observed the sphere at 16 radiance levels to determine the linearity of the SeaWiFS response. As part of the calibration analysis, the GSFC sphere was also characterized using a GSFC spectroradiometer. The 1997 calibration agrees with the initial 1993 calibration to within +/- 4%. The new calibration coefficients, computed before and after the vibration test, agree to within 0.5%. The response of the SeaWiFS channels in each band is linear to better than 1%. In order to compare to previous and current methods, the SeaWiFS radiometric responses are presented in two ways: using the nominal center wave-lengths for the eight bands; and using band-averaged spectral radiances. The band-averaged values are used in the flight calibration table. An uncertainty analysis for the calibration coefficients is also presented.

Seismic stratigraphic interpretations suggest that sectors of the central and western Ross Sea were near or above sea level during earliest Oligocene time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorlien, C. C.; Sauli, C.; De Santis, L.; Luyendyk, B. P.; Wardell, N.; Davis, S. M.; Wilson, D. S.; Brazell, S.; Bartek, L., III; Bart, P. J.

2016-12-01

Most of West Antarctica has been interpreted as a high-elevation plateau that has subsided between about 100 Ma and present. Ross Sea was characterized by subaerial ridges and islands up to mid-Cenozoic time. It was in such an environment that Oligocene ice sheets and glaciers advanced and retreated within Ross Embayment. The extent to which Oligocene ice affected the embayment north of the current ice shelf has not been established, with either ice caps on islands, or broad glaciers affecting basins having been proposed. We used all available data from the Seismic Data Library System to interpret stratigraphic horizons through most of Ross Sea. A new 3D velocity model was constructed for the western 2/3 of Ross Sea. Stratigraphic age control was provided by deep scientific coring, including Deep Sea Drilling Program sites, the Cape Roberts Drilling Program, and published correlations to ANDRILL sites. The correlation with recent drill records and much additional seismic reflection data allowed a new interpretation of Ross Sea, which differs from the previous comprehensive seismic stratigraphic interpretation (ANTOSTRAT 1995). Sedimentary rocks of given ages are twice as deep within Terror Rift in westernmost Ross Sea in our interpretation. In contrast, acoustic basement is 1 km shallower in part of Central Trough. The 200 km-wide smooth acoustic basement on Central High eroded sub-aerially until it subsided differentially through sea level toward the centers of Cretaceous and Cenozoic rifts. If the subsiding basins were kept filled with sediment eroded by Oligocene ice sheets, then the age the strata aggrading above the planar rock platform date subsidence through sea level at each location. Using such an assumption, much of central and western Ross Sea was near or above sea level during earliest Oligocene time. These assumptions will be tested by backstripping and thermal subsidence models.

Increased Flooding Risk - Accelerating Threat and Stakeholder Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atkinson, L. P.; Ezer, T.; De Young, R.; McShane, M. K.; McFarlane, B.

2012-12-01

Coastal cities have been adapting to coastal flooding for centuries. Now, with increased population along the coast combined with increased flooding because of sea level rise (SLR) the vulnerability of coastal cities has increased significantly. In this paper we will discuss the physical threat of accelerating sea level rise and the response of stakeholders. Sallenger et al (2012) stated "... we present evidence of recently accelerated SLR in a unique 1,000-km-long hotspot on the highly populated North American Atlantic coast north of Cape Hatteras and show that it is consistent with a modeled fingerprint of dynamic SLR." In the Northeast Hotspot (NEH) dynamic processes such as Gulf Stream transport can cause local sea level differences (Ezer, 2001). Sweet et al (2009) attributed the anomalously high sea level along the mid-Atlantic in 2009 to dynamic SLR. A recent paper (Ezer and Corlett, 2012 submitted), focused on Chesapeake Bay, confirms Sallenger et al. These accelerations suggest that the higher estimates of SLR in IPCC reports may be better estimates. The combination of local sea level rise and acceleration, even with average coastal storm surge, results in increased vulnerability and economic losses. We will use three examples of stakeholder response to this threat: shipbuilding, cities and insurance. Nuclear aircraft carrier drydock in Newport News, VA - The only drydock where nuclear powered aircraft carriers are built flooded during Hurricane Isabel. A study showed that with a 1 meter sea level rise and no change in storm severity they would have 'Major Flooding' every 4 months rather than every 27 years. Cities infrastructure - In a recent report on sea level rise, the Hampton Roads Planning District Commission (representing nearly 2m people) found that "sea level rise will be a major issue", "there is not yet official state or federal guidance for addressing sea level rise", "…the "…U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has developed guidance…" for their projects, and "…subsidence …. is not well-documented". Studies sponsored by the City of Norfolk for example suggest massive tidal barriers. Flood insurance - Flood insurance is available only from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), not from private insurers. NFIP has a current deficit of about 18B, which is estimated to increase by about 2B annually. The rates are subsidized and do not reflect the true risk of coastal flooding and do not incorporate the likelihood of future sea-level rise. In effect, the subsidy promotes increased building on the coast, leading to increased deficits in the tax-payer financed program. Risk-based flood insurance pricing would lead to less coastal development, therefore decreasing the tax base of the community. Stakeholder needs - Planning for increased flooding due to sea level rise extends 50 to 100 years given the lifetime of infrastructure. Planners need guidance and error estimates. To make adequate predictions for users we must understand the various components of sea level rise including subsidence, global sea level rise and regional and local dynamic sea level rise. Predictions of regional sea level rise will be presented in the context of existing infrastructure such as NASA research facilities and the city of Norfolk, Virginia.

Sea-level and tectonic control of middle to late Pleistocene turbidite systems in Santa Monica Basin, offshore California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Normark, W.R.; Piper, D.J.W.; Sliter, R.

2006-01-01

Small turbidite systems offshore from southern California provide an opportunity to track sediment from river source through the turbidity-current initiation process to ultimate deposition, and to evaluate the impact of changing sea level and tectonics. The Santa Monica Basin is almost a closed system for terrigenous sediment input, and is supplied principally from the Santa Clara River. The Hueneme fan is supplied directly by the river, whereas the smaller Mugu and Dume fans are nourished by southward longshore drift. This study of the Late Quaternary turbidite fill of the Santa Monica Basin uses a dense grid of high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles tied to new radiocarbon ages for Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1015 back to 32 ka. Over the last glacial cycle, sedimentation rates in the distal part of Santa Monica Basin averaged 2-3 mm yr-1, with increases at times of extreme relative sea-level lowstand. Coarser-grained mid-fan lobes prograded into the basin from the Hueneme, Mugu and Dume fans at times of rapid sea-level fall. These pulses of coarse-grained sediment resulted from river channel incision and delta cannibalization. During the extreme lowstand of the last glacial maximum, sediment delivery was concentrated on the Hueneme Fan, with mean depositional rates of up to 13 mm yr-1 on the mid- and upper fan. During the marine isotope stage (MIS) 2 transgression, enhanced rates of sedimentation of > 4 mm yr-1 occurred on the Mugu and Dume fans, as a result of distributary switching and southward littoral drift providing nourishment to these fan systems. Longer-term sediment delivery to Santa Monica Basin was controlled by tectonics. Prior to MIS 10, the Anacapa ridge blocked the southward discharge of the Santa Clara River into the Santa Monica Basin. The pattern and distribution of turbidite sedimentation was strongly controlled by sea level through the rate of supply of coarse sediment and the style of initiation of turbidity currents. These two factors appear to have been more important than the absolute position of sea level. ?? 2006 The Authors. Journal compilation 2006 International Association of Sedimentologists.

Investigating the role of wind in generating surface currents over the slope area of the Laptev Sea, Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patteson, R. N.

2017-12-01

Mixing mechanisms of the Arctic Ocean have profound impacts on sea ice, global ocean dynamics, and arctic communities. This project used a two-year long time series of ocean current velocities collected from eight moorings located on the Eurasian basin, as well as ERA-interim wind data, to compare and assess relationships between current and wind velocities at different depths. Determining the strength of these correlations will further scientific understanding of the degree to which wind influences mixing, with implications for heat flux, diffusion, and sea ice changes. Using statistical analysis, I calculated whether a significant relationship between wind velocity and ocean currents existed beginning at the surface level ( 50m) .The final correlation values, ranging from R = 0.11 to R = 0.28, indicated a weak relationship between wind velocity and ocean currents at the surface for all eight mooring sites. The results for the surface depth imply that correlation likely decreases with increasing depths, and thus further testing of deeper depth levels was unnecessary. This finding suggests that there is another dominant factor at play in the ocean; we postulate that topography exerts a significant influence on subsurface mixing. This study highlights the need for further research of the different mechanisms and their importance in influencing the dynamic structure of the ocean.

Contaminants still high in top-level carnivores in the Southern California Bight: levels of DDT and PCBs in resident and transient pinnipeds.

PubMed

Blasius, Mary Ellen; Goodmanlowe, Gwen D

2008-12-01

Highly industrialized areas, such as the Southern California Bight, often have high levels of contaminants in marine sediments, which can cause chronic exposure to organisms long after their use has ceased. tDDT and tPCB were analyzed in the blubber of 145 stranded pinnipeds that died at local marine mammal centers between 1994 and 2006. Resident species (California sea lion and Pacific harbor seal) had significantly higher concentrations of tDDT and tPCB than the transient species (northern elephant seal). Adult female California sea lions had significantly lower concentrations of tDDT and tPCB than pups, yearlings, and adult males. Concentrations of both tDDT and tPCB in California sea lions significantly declined over time, but did not change in northern elephant seals. Current concentrations of tDDT and tPCB in California sea lions and harbor seals are among the highest values reported worldwide for marine mammals and exceed those reported to cause adverse health effects.

The effects of sea level and palaeotopography on lithofacies distribution and geometries in heterozoan carbonates, south-eastern Spain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, C.L.; Franseen, E.K.; Goldstein, R.H.

2005-01-01

This study utilized three-dimensional exposures to evaluate how sea-level position and palaeotopography control the facies and geometries of heterozoan carbonates. Heterozoan carbonates were deposited on top of a Neogene volcanic substrate characterized by palaeotopographic highs, palaeovalleys, and straits that were formed by subaerial erosion, possibly original volcanic topography, and faults prior to carbonate deposition. The depositional sequence that is the focus of this study (DS1B) consists of 7-10 fining upward cycles that developed in response to relative sea-level fluctuations. A complete cycle has a basal erosion surface overlain by deposits of debrisflows and high-density turbidity currents, which formed during relative sea-level fall. Overlying tractive deposits most likely formed during the lowest relative position of sea level. Overlying these are debrites grading upward to high-density turbidites and low-density turbidites that formed during relative sea-level rise. The tops of the cycles consist of hemipelagic deposits that formed during the highest relative position of sea level. The cycles fine upward because upslope carbonate production decreased as relative sea level rose due to less surface area available for shallow-water carbonate production and partial drowning of substrates. The cycles are dominated by two end-member types of facies associations and stratal geometries that formed in response to fluctuating sea-level position over variable substrate palaeotopography. One end-member is termed 'flank flow cycle' because this type of cycle indicates dominant sediment transport down the flanks of palaeovalleys. Those cycles drape the substrate, have more debrites, high-density turbidites and erosion on palaeovalley flanks, and in general, the lithofacies fine down the palaeovalley flanks into the palaeovalley axes. The second end-member is termed 'axial flow cycle' because it indicates a dominance of sediment transport down the axes of palaeovalleys. Those cycles are characterized by debrites and high-density turbidites in palaeovalley axes, and lap out of strata against the flanks of palaeovalleys. Where and when an axial flow cycle or flank flow cycle developed appears to be related to the intersection of sea level with areas of gentle or steep substrate slopes, during an overall relative rise in sea level. Results from this study provide a model for similar systems that must combine carbonate principles for sediment production, palaeotopographic controls, and physical principles of sediment remobilization into deep water. ?? 2005 International Association of Sedimentologists.

Rapid coupling between ice volume and polar temperature over the past 150,000 years.

PubMed

Grant, K M; Rohling, E J; Bar-Matthews, M; Ayalon, A; Medina-Elizalde, M; Ramsey, C Bronk; Satow, C; Roberts, A P

2012-11-29

Current global warming necessitates a detailed understanding of the relationships between climate and global ice volume. Highly resolved and continuous sea-level records are essential for quantifying ice-volume changes. However, an unbiased study of the timing of past ice-volume changes, relative to polar climate change, has so far been impossible because available sea-level records either were dated by using orbital tuning or ice-core timescales, or were discontinuous in time. Here we present an independent dating of a continuous, high-resolution sea-level record in millennial-scale detail throughout the past 150,000 years. We find that the timing of ice-volume fluctuations agrees well with that of variations in Antarctic climate and especially Greenland climate. Amplitudes of ice-volume fluctuations more closely match Antarctic (rather than Greenland) climate changes. Polar climate and ice-volume changes, and their rates of change, are found to covary within centennial response times. Finally, rates of sea-level rise reached at least 1.2 m per century during all major episodes of ice-volume reduction.

Multiproxy assessment of Holocene relative sea-level changes in the western Mediterranean: sea-level variability and improvements in the definition of the isostatic signal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vacchi, Matteo; Rovere, Alessio; Marriner, Nick; Morhange, Christophe; Spada, Giorgio; Fontana, Alessandro

2016-04-01

After the review of 918 radiocarbon dated Relative Sea-Level (RSL) data-points we present here the first quality-controlled database constraining the Holocene sea-level histories of the western Mediterranean Sea (Spain, France, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Malta and Tunisia). We reviewed and standardized the geological RSL data-points using a new multi-proxy methodology based on: (1) modern taxa assemblages in Mediterranean lagoons and marshes; (2) beachrock characteristics (cement fabric and chemistry, sedimentary structures); and (3) the modern distribution of Mediterranean fixed biological indicators. These RSL data-points were coupled with the large number of archaeological RSL indicators available for the western Mediterranean. We assessed the spatial variability of RSL histories for 22 regions and compared these with the ICE-5G VM2 GIA model. In the western Mediterranean, RSL rose continuously for the whole Holocene with a sudden slowdown at ~7.5 ka BP and a further deceleration during the last ~4.0 ka BP, after which time observed RSL changes are mainly related to variability in isostatic adjustment. The sole exception is southern Tunisia, where data show evidence of a mid-Holocene high-stand compatible with the isostatic impacts of the melting history of the remote Antarctic ice sheet. Our results indicate that late-Holocene sea-level rise was significantly slower than the current one. First estimates of GIA contribution indicate that, at least in the northwestern sector, it accounts at least for the 25-30% of the ongoing sea-level rise recorded by Mediterranean tidal gauges. Such contribution is less constrained at lower latitudes due to the lower quality of the late Holocene index points. Future applications of spatio-temporal statistical techniques are required to better quantify the gradient of the isostatic contribution and to provide improved context for the assessment of 20th century acceleration of Mediterranean sea-level rise.

Critical Beach Habitat for Hawaiian Green Sea Turtle Endangered Before Mid-Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burstein, J. T.; Fletcher, C. H., III; Dominique Tavares, K.

2017-12-01

Many Hawaiian beaches provide critical habitat for the Hawaiian Green Sea Turtle (Chelonia Mydas). However, sea level rise drives beaches and dunes to migrate landward where they may encounter roads and other types of developed lands. Where developed lands are threatened by coastal erosion, defined as a distance of 20 ft (6.1 m) by state rules, property owners are eligible to apply for an emergency permit. These have historically led to coastal armoring. Seawalls and revetments on chronically receding shorelines cause permanent beach loss by restricting sand supply to the beach in front of the sea wall, as well as to beaches adjacent to the restrictive structure (flanking). This study focuses on four primary beach habitats along the North Shore of Oahu, Hawai'i: Waimea, Haleiwa, Kawailoa, and Mokuleia. We utilize GIS techniques to apply spatial analysis of nesting and basking locations collected from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). We then estimate the number of homes and the length of shoreline threatened by coastal armoring for 0 m, 0.17 m, 0.32 m, 0.60 m, and 0.98 m of sea-level rise. We demonstrate that 0.17 m of sea level rise impacts 31% of all beach front homes, and 4.6 km of shoreline, or 21% of the total shoreline. An increase to 0.32 m of sea level rise impacts 42% of all beach front homes, and 5.8 km of shoreline, or 31% of the total shoreline. The upper bound of the most recent sea level rise projection by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC RCP 8.5) affirms that 0.17 m of sea level rise may be reached by 2030, and 0.32 m by 2050. This sea level projection is a "worst-case" under IPCC-AR5, however, Sweet et al. (2017) depicts this as an "Intermediate" scenario on the basis of faster than expected mass loss by Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets, and rapid heat uptake and thermal expansion by the world's oceans. We conclude that the impacts of sea level rise and reactive coastal armoring currently endanger critical habitat for the Hawaiian Green Sea turtle (Chelonia Mydas). The results of this study suggest that decision-makers need to act without delay in developing habitat management plans to protect and preserve Hawai'i's shorelines, and conserve critical habitats for the Hawaiian Green Sea turtle and other indigenous species.

An avenue of eddies: Quantifying the biophysical properties of mesoscale eddies in the Tasman Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Everett, J. D.; Baird, M. E.; Oke, P. R.; Suthers, I. M.

2012-08-01

The Tasman Sea is unique - characterised by a strong seasonal western boundary current that breaks down into a complicated field of mesoscale eddies almost immediately after separating from the coast. Through a 16-year analysis of Tasman Sea eddies, we identify a region along the southeast Australian coast which we name ‘Eddy Avenue’ where eddies have higher sea level anomalies, faster rotation and greater sea surface temperature and chlorophyll a anomalies. The density of cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies within Eddy Avenue is 23% and 16% higher respectively than the broader Tasman Sea. We find that Eddy Avenue cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies have more strongly differentiated biological properties than those of the broader Tasman Sea, as a result of larger anticyclonic eddies formed from Coral Sea water depressing chl. a concentrations, and for coastal cyclonic eddies due to the entrainment of nutrient-rich shelf waters. Cyclonic eddies within Eddy Avenue have almost double the chlorophyll a (0.35 mg m-3) of anticyclonic eddies (0.18 mg m-3). The average chlorophyll a concentration for cyclonic eddies is 16% higher in Eddy Avenue and 28% lower for anticyclonic eddies when compared to the Tasman Sea. With a strengthening East Australian Current, the propagation of these eddies will have significant implications for heat transport and the entrainment and connectivity of plankton and larval fish populations.

Potential effects of sea-level rise on the depth to saturated sediments of the Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses on Cape Cod, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walter, Donald A.; McCobb, Timothy D.; Masterson, John P.; Fienen, Michael N.

2016-05-25

In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Association to Preserve Cape Cod, the Cape Cod Commission, and the Massachusetts Environmental Trust, began an evaluation of the potential effects of sea-level rise on water table altitudes and depths to water on central and western Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Increases in atmospheric and oceanic temperatures arising, in part, from the release of greenhouse gases likely will result in higher sea levels globally. Increasing water table altitudes in shallow, unconfined coastal aquifer systems could adversely affect infrastructure—roads, utilities, basements, and septic systems—particularly in low-lying urbanized areas. The Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses on Cape Cod are the largest and most populous of the six flow lenses that comprise the region’s aquifer system, the Cape Cod glacial aquifer. The potential effects of sea-level rise on water table altitude and depths to water were evaluated by use of numerical models of the region. The Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses have a number of large surface water drainages that receive a substantial amount of groundwater discharge, 47 and 29 percent of the total, respectively. The median increase in the simulated water table altitude following a 6-foot sea-level rise across both flow lenses was 2.11 feet, or 35 percent when expressed as a percentage of the total sea-level rise. The response is nearly the same as the sea-level rise (6 feet) in some coastal areas and less than 0.1 foot near some large inland streams. Median water table responses differ substantially between the Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses—at 29 and 49 percent, respectively—because larger surface water discharge on the Sagamore flow lens results in increased dampening of the water table response than in the Monomoy flow lens. Surface waters dampen water table altitude increases because streams are fixed-altitude boundaries that cause hydraulic gradients and streamflow to increase as sea-level rises, partially fixing the local water table altitude.The region has a generally thick vadose zone with a mean of about 38 feet; areas with depths to water of 5 feet or less, as estimated from light detection and ranging (lidar) data from 2011 and simulated water table altitudes, currently [2011] occur over about 24.9 square miles, or about 8.4 percent of the total land area of the Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses, generally in low-lying coastal areas and inland near ponds and streams. Excluding potentially submerged areas, an additional 4.5, 9.8, and 15.9 square miles would have shallow depths to water (5 feet or less) for projected sea-level rises of 2, 4, and 6 feet above levels in 2011. The additional areas with shallow depths to water generally occur in the same areas as the areas with current [2011] depths to water of 5 feet or less: low-lying coastal areas and near inland surface water features. Additional areas with shallow depths to water for the largest sea-level rise prediction (6 feet) account for about 5.7 percent of the total land area, excluding areas likely to be inundated by seawater. The numerous surface water drainages will dampen the response of the water table to sea-level rise. This dampening, combined with the region’s thick vadose zone, likely will mitigate the potential for groundwater inundation in most areas. The potential does exist for groundwater inundation in some areas, but the effects of sea-level rise on depths to water and infrastructure likely will not be substantial on a regional level.

Holocene depositional history of a large glaciated estuary, Penobscot Bay, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knebel, H.J.

1986-01-01

Data from seismic-reflection profiles, sidescan sonar images, and sediment samples reveal the Holocene depositional history of the large (1100 km2) glaciated Penobscot Bay estuary of coastal Maine. Previous work has shown that the late Wisconsinan ice sheet retreated from the three main passages of the bay between 12,700 and 13,500 years ago and was accompanied by a marine transgression during which ice and sea were in contact. Isostatic recovery of the crust caused the bay to emerge during the immediate postglacial period, and relative sea level fell to at least -40 m sometime between 9000 and 11,500 years ago. During lowered sea level, the ancestral Penobscot River flowed across the subaerially exposed head of the bay and debouched into Middle Passage. Organic-matter-rich mud from the river was deposited rapidly in remnant, glacially scoured depressions in the lower reaches of Middle and West Passages behind a shallow (???20 m water depth) bedrock sill across the bay mouth. East Passage was isolated from the rest of the bay system and received only small amounts of locally derived fine-grained sediments. During the Holocene transgression that accompanied the eustatic rise of sea level, the locus of sedimentation shifted to the head of the bay. Here, heterogeneous fluvial deposits filled the ancestral valley of the Penobscot River as base level rose, and the migrating surf zone created a gently dipping erosional unconformity, marked by a thin (<2 m) lag deposit of coarse sand and gravel. As sea level continued to rise, a thin (???9 m) layer of acoustically transparent muddy sediments accumulated over a shallow platform in the eastern half of the bay head. Graded sediments within this stratum began to accumulate early in the transgression, and they record both the decrease in energy conditions and the waning influence of the Penobscot River at the head of the bay. In contrast, relatively thick (up to 25 m) silty clays accumulated within a subbottom trough in the western half of the bay head. This deposit apparently developed late in the transgression after sea level had reached -20 m and after the westward transport of fine-grained sediments from the Penobscot River had been established. During and since the late Holocene transgression of sea level, waves and currents have eroded, reworked, and redistributed Holocene sediments: (1) atop the shallow margins; (2) within constricted channels; (3) around topographic highs; and (4) over the shallow bedrock sill at the bay mouth. The variable distribution, characteristics, and thickness (0 to more than 30 m) of Holocene deposits in Penobscot Bay primarily reflect: (1) the irregular glacially eroded bedrock topography beneath the bay; (2) the paleogeography of the bay during the sea-level lowstand; (3) the postglacial location of the ancestral Penobscot River; and (4) the wave and current regime during and since the Holocene sea-level transgression. ?? 1986.

Accurate Modelling of Surface Currents and Internal Tides in a Semi-enclosed Coastal Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, S. E.; Soontiens, N. K.; Dunn, M. B. H.; Liu, J.; Olson, E.; Halverson, M. J.; Pawlowicz, R.

2016-02-01

The Strait of Georgia is a deep (400 m), strongly stratified, semi-enclosed coastal sea on the west coast of North America. We have configured a baroclinic model of the Strait of Georgia and surrounding coastal waters using the NEMO ocean community model. We run daily nowcasts and forecasts and publish our sea-surface results (including storm surge warnings) to the web (salishsea.eos.ubc.ca/storm-surge). Tides in the Strait of Georgia are mixed and large. The baroclinic model and previous barotropic models accurately represent tidal sea-level variations and depth mean currents. The baroclinic model reproduces accurately the diurnal but not the semi-diurnal baroclinic tidal currents. In the Southern Strait of Georgia, strong internal tidal currents at the semi-diurnal frequency are observed. Strong semi-diurnal tides are also produced in the model, but are almost 180 degrees out of phase with the observations. In the model, in the surface, the barotropic and baroclinic tides reinforce, whereas the observations show that at the surface the baroclinic tides oppose the barotropic. As such the surface currents are very poorly modelled. Here we will present evidence of the internal tidal field from observations. We will discuss the generation regions of the tides, the necessary modifications to the model required to correct the phase, the resulting baroclinic tides and the improvements in the surface currents.

North Atlantic teleconnection patterns signature on sea level from satellite altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, Isabel; Lázaro, Clara; Joana Fernandes, M.; Bastos, Luísa

2015-04-01

Presently, satellite altimetry record is long enough to appropriately study inter-annual signals in sea level anomaly and ocean surface circulation, allowing the association of teleconnection patterns of low-frequency variability with the response of sea level. The variability of the Atlantic Ocean at basin-scale is known to be complex in space and time, with the dominant mode occurring on annual timescales. However, interannual and decadal variability have already been documented in sea surface temperature. Both modes are believed to be linked and are known to influence sea level along coastal regions. The analysis of the sea level multiannual variability is thus essential to understand the present climate and its long-term variability. While in the open-ocean sea level anomaly from satellite altimetry currently possesses centimetre-level accuracy, satellite altimetry measurements become invalid or of lower accuracy along the coast due to the invalidity of the wet tropospheric correction (WTC) derived from on-board microwave radiometers. In order to adequately analyse long-term changes in sea level in the coastal regions, satellite altimetry measurements can be recovered by using an improved WTC computed from recent algorithms that combine wet path delays from all available observations (remote sensing scanning imaging radiometers, GNSS stations, microwave radiometers on-board satellite altimetry missions and numerical weather models). In this study, a 20-year (1993-2013) time series of multi-mission satellite altimetry (TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, OSTM/Jason-2, ERS-1/2, ENVISAT, CryoSat-2 and SARAL), are used to characterize the North Atlantic (NA) long-term variability on sea level at basin-scale and analyse its response to several atmospheric teleconnections known to operate on the NA. The altimetry record was generated using an improved coastal WTC computed from either the GNSS-derived path Delay or the Data Combination methodologies developed by University of Porto (Fernandes et al., 2010; Fernandes et al., 2013). Regular 0.25°x0.25° latitude-longitude grids were generated at a 10-day interval for the NA Ocean (60°W-5°W, 5°N-60°N) using optimal interpolation with a realistic space-time correlation function (Lázaro et al., 2013). These grids are used to inspect the response of sea level anomalies to several teleconnection patterns as well as the NA variability on annual and longer timescales. The teleconnection patterns selected are the ones that have influence on the NA basin: North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic pattern, East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern, Scandinavia pattern, Western Mediterranean Oscillation index, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Tropical North Atlantic Index, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Acknowledgments: RAIA tec (0688-RAIATEC-1-P) project. The RAIA Coastal Observatory has been funded by the Programa Operativo de Cooperación Transfronteriza España-Portugal (POCTEP 2007-2013). References: Fernandes M.J., C. Lázaro, A.L. Nunes, N. Pires, L. Bastos, V.B. Mendes (2010). GNSS-derived Path Delay: an approach to compute the wet tropospheric correction for coastal altimetry. IEEE Geosci. Rem. Sens Lett., Vol. 7, NO. 3, 596 - 600, doi: 10.1109/LGRS.2010.2042425. Lázaro, C., M. J. Juliano, M. J. Fernandes (2013): Semi-automatic determination of the Azores Current axis using satellite altimetry: application to the study of the current variability during 1995-2006. Advances in Space Research, Vol. 51(11), pp. 2155-2170, doi:10.1016/j.asr.2012.12.021. Fernandes, M. J., A.L. Nunes, C. Lázaro (2013). Analysis and Inter-Calibration of Wet Path Delay Datasets to Compute the Wet Tropospheric Correction for CryoSat-2 over Ocean. Remote Sensing, 5, 4977-5005.

Molecular cloning and functional characterization of cathepsin D from sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus.

PubMed

Yu, Cuiping; Cha, Yue; Wu, Fan; Xu, Xianbing; Qin, Lei; Du, Ming

2017-11-01

Cathepsin D (CTSD, EC 3.4.23.5) belongs to aspartic protease family, which is located in lysosomes and is distributed in diverse tissues and cells. CTSD has a wide variety of physiological functions, owing to its proteolytic activity in degradating proteins and peptides. In the current study, the full length cDNA of sea cucumber (Apostichopus japonicus) cathepsin D (AjCTSD) was firstly cloned, then the association between AjCTSD and sea cucumber autolysis was investigated. The full length cDNA of AjCTSD was 2896 bp, with an open reading frame (ORF) for 391 amino acids. AjCTSD was widely expressed in body wall, muscle and intestine; the expression level was the highest in intestine, followed by muscle and body wall. Compared to fresh tissues, AjCTSD expression levels were significantly increased in all examined autolytic tissues. The purified recombinant AjCTSD promoted the degradation of sea cucumber muscle. In conclusion, AjCTSD contributed to sea cucumber muscle autolysis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Secular changes of the M2 tide in the Gulf of Maine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Richard D.

2005-01-01

Analyses of long time series of hourly tide-gauge data at four stations in the Gulf of Maine reveal that the amplitude of the M2 tide underwent a nearly linear secular increase throughout most of the twentieth century. In the early 1980s, however, the amplitude of M2 abruptly dropped. Sea level changes alone appear inadequate to explain either the long-term trend or the recent trend discontinuity. Tidal models that account for Holocene sea level rise do predict an amplification of M2, but much smaller than the currently observed trends. Nor do recent annual mean sea levels correlate with the recent trend discontinuity. Some unknown fraction of the open Atlantic may be similarly affected, since the M2 discontinuity, but not the long-term secular increase in the tide, is evident also at Halifax.

The response of Antarctic sea ice algae to changes in pH and CO2.

PubMed

McMinn, Andrew; Müller, Marius N; Martin, Andrew; Ryan, Ken G

2014-01-01

Ocean acidification substantially alters ocean carbon chemistry and hence pH but the effects on sea ice formation and the CO2 concentration in the enclosed brine channels are unknown. Microbial communities inhabiting sea ice ecosystems currently contribute 10-50% of the annual primary production of polar seas, supporting overwintering zooplankton species, especially Antarctic krill, and seeding spring phytoplankton blooms. Ocean acidification is occurring in all surface waters but the strongest effects will be experienced in polar ecosystems with significant effects on all trophic levels. Brine algae collected from McMurdo Sound (Antarctica) sea ice was incubated in situ under various carbonate chemistry conditions. The carbon chemistry was manipulated with acid, bicarbonate and bases to produce a pCO2 and pH range from 238 to 6066 µatm and 7.19 to 8.66, respectively. Elevated pCO2 positively affected the growth rate of the brine algal community, dominated by the unique ice dinoflagellate, Polarella glacialis. Growth rates were significantly reduced when pH dropped below 7.6. However, when the pH was held constant and the pCO2 increased, growth rates of the brine algae increased by more than 20% and showed no decline at pCO2 values more than five times current ambient levels. We suggest that projected increases in seawater pCO2, associated with OA, will not adversely impact brine algal communities.

Studying the impact of climate change on flooding in 12 river basins using CCSM4 output

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiele-Eich, I.; Hopson, T. M.; Gilleland, E.; Lamarque, J.; Hu, A.

2011-12-01

The goal of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change on flood frequency changes in twelve large river basins by assessing the changes in upper catchment precipitation as well as the impact of sea-level rise at the river mouths. Using the recently released model output of the CCSM4 for upper catchment precipitation in twelve large river basins as well as the sea-level rise anomalies at the respective river mouths, we assess the impact of climate change on the return periods of flooding in the individual basins. Upper catchment precipitation, discharge as well as annual mean thermosteric sea-level rise are taken from the four CCSM4 1° 20th Century ensemble members as well as from six CCSM4 1° ensemble members for the RCP scenarios RCP8.5, 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6. In a next step, return levels are compared from both 20th century and future model simulations for time slices at 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090. It can be seen that what is e.g. a 20 year flood in present-day climate has a return period of ~15/10 years (RCP 2.6/8.5) in 2070. This effect strengthens as time progresses in the 21st century. Especially in low-lying countries such as Bangladesh, changes in sea-level rise can be expected to influence present-day flood characteristics. Sea-level rise anomalies for the 21st century are taken from CCSM4 model output at each of the river mouths. The backwater effect of sea-level rise can be estimated by referring to the geometry of the river channel and calculating an effective additional discharge both at the river mouth and inland. Judging from our work, the increase in effective discharge due to sea-level rise cannot be neglected when discussing flooding in the respective river basins. Impact of sea-level rise on changes in return levels will be investigated further. To blend both precipitation and sea-level effects together, we use extreme-value theory to calculate how the tails of the current river discharge distribution in both the lower and middle reaches of the river basins will be impacted by changing climate.

The Influence of the Terrestrial Reference Frame on Studies of Sea Level Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nerem, R. S.; Bar-Sever, Y. E.; Haines, B. J.; Desai, S.; Heflin, M. B.

2015-12-01

The terrestrial reference frame (TRF) provides the foundation for the accurate monitoring of sea level using both ground-based (tide gauges) and space-based (satellite altimetry) techniques. For the latter, tide gauges are also used to monitor drifts in the satellite instruments over time. The accuracy of the terrestrial reference frame (TRF) is thus a critical component for both types of sea level measurements. The TRF is central to the formation of geocentric sea-surface height (SSH) measurements from satellite altimeter data. The computed satellite orbits are linked to a particular TRF via the assumed locations of the ground-based tracking systems. The manner in which TRF errors are expressed in the orbit solution (and thus SSH) is not straightforward, and depends on the models of the forces underlying the satellite's motion. We discuss this relationship, and provide examples of the systematic TRF-induced errors in the altimeter derived sea-level record. The TRF is also crucial to the interpretation of tide-gauge measurements, as it enables the separation of vertical land motion from volumetric changes in the water level. TRF errors affect tide gauge measurements through GNSS estimates of the vertical land motion at each tide gauge. This talk will discuss the current accuracy of the TRF and how errors in the TRF impact both satellite altimeter and tide gauge sea level measurements. We will also discuss simulations of how the proposed Geodetic Reference Antenna in SPace (GRASP) satellite mission could reduce these errors and revolutionize how reference frames are computed in general.

DUACS: Toward High Resolution Sea Level Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faugere, Y.; Gerald, D.; Ubelmann, C.; Claire, D.; Pujol, M. I.; Antoine, D.; Desjonqueres, J. D.; Picot, N.

2016-12-01

The DUACS system produces, as part of the CNES/SALP project, and the Copernicus Marine Environment and Monitoring Service, high quality multimission altimetry Sea Level products for oceanographic applications, climate forecasting centers, geophysic and biology communities... These products consist in directly usable and easy to manipulate Level 3 (along-track cross-calibrated SLA) and Level 4 products (multiple sensors merged as maps or time series) and are available in global and regional version (Mediterranean Sea, Arctic, European Shelves …).The quality of the products is today limited by the altimeter technology "Low Resolution Mode" (LRM), and the lack of available observations. The launch of 2 new satellites in 2016, Jason-3 and Sentinel-3A, opens new perspectives. Using the global Synthetic Aperture Radar mode (SARM) coverage of S3A and optimizing the LRM altimeter processing (retracking, editing, ...) will allow us to fully exploit the fine-scale content of the altimetric missions. Thanks to this increase of real time altimetry observations we will also be able to improve Level-4 products by combining these new Level-3 products and new mapping methodology, such as dynamic interpolation. Finally these improvements will benefit to downstream products : geostrophic currents, Lagrangian products, eddy atlas… Overcoming all these challenges will provide major upgrades of Sea Level products to better fulfill user needs.

Anomalous secular sea-level acceleration in the Baltic Sea caused by glacial isostatic adjustment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spada, Giorgio; Galassi, Gaia; Olivieri, Marco

2014-05-01

Observations from the global array of tide gauges show that global sea-level has been rising at an average rate of 1.5-2 mm/yr during the last ˜ 150 years (Spada & Galassi, 2012). Although a global sea-level acceleration was initially ruled out, subsequent studies have coherently proposed values of ˜1 mm/year/century (Olivieri & Spada, 2012). More complex non-linear trends and abrupt sea-level variations have now also been recognized. Globally, they could manifest a regime shift between the late Holocene and the current rhythms of sea-level rise, while locally they result from ocean circulation anomalies, steric effects and wind stress (Bromirski et al. 2011). Although isostatic readjustment affects the local rates of secular sea-level change, a possible impact on regional acceleration have been so far discounted (Woodworth et al., 2009) since the process evolves on a millennium scale. Here we report a previously unnoticed anomaly in the long-term sea-level acceleration of the Baltic Sea tide gauge records, and we explain it by the classical post-glacial rebound theory and numerical modeling of glacial isostasy. Contrary to previous assumptions, our findings demonstrate that isostatic compensation plays a role in the regional secular sea-level acceleration. In response to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), tide gauge records located along the coasts of the Baltic Sea exhibit a small - but significant - long-term sea-level acceleration in excess to those in the far field of previously glaciated regions. The sign and the amplitude of the anomaly is consistent with the post-glacial rebound theory and with realistic numerical predictions of GIA models routinely employed to decontaminate the tide gauges observations from the GIA effects (Peltier, 2004). Model computations predict the existence of anomalies of similar amplitude in other regions of the globe where GIA is still particularly vigorous at present, but no long-term instrumental observations are available to support their existence. We confirm that a GIA correction for secular sea-level acceleration is not required in GSLA assessments because its average value is vanishingly small at the locations of the PSMSL tide gauges (Douglas, 1992). Nevertheless, GIA is contributing significantly on a regional scale, and therefore it should be recognized as one of the processes responsible for local, long-term sea-level acceleration. Reference: Bromirski, P.D., Miller, A.J., Flick, R.E. & Auad, G., 2011, J. Geoph. Res. 116, C07005; Douglas, B.C., 1992, J. Geoph. Res. 97, 12,699-12,706; Olivieri, M. & Spada, G., 2013, Global Planet. Change 109, 64-72; Peltier, W.R., 2004, Annu. Rev. Earth. Pl. Sc. 32, 111-149; Spada, G. & Galassi, G., 2012, Geophys. J. Int. 191, 1067-1094; Woodworth, P.L., White, N. J., Jevrejeva, S., Holgate, S. J., Church, J. A. & Gehrels, W. R., 2009, Int. J. Climatol. 29, 777-789.

Dining Dovekies Demand, "When, Where and What's for Dinner?" The Impact of Seasonal Changes in Snow Melt and the Development of the Arctic Marine Food Web on Seabirds.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karnovsky, N. J.; Harding, A.; Welcker, J.; Brown, Z. W.; Kitaysky, A.; Kwasniewski, S.; Walkusz, W.; Gremillet, D.

2011-12-01

The Atlantic sector of the Arctic is undergoing widespread climate change with increases in air and sea temperatures which impact the timing of ice retreat, snow melt and the development of the marine food web. Dovekies (Alle alle) are small seabirds that migrate to the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic to feed in ice free waters that have abundant lipid-rich zooplankton. In the Greenland Sea, the dovekies are largely dependent on the advection of Calanus copepods into the area. We hypothesized that dovekies breeding adjacent to water masses which bring smaller, less energy-rich prey into the region (Calanus finmarchicus), work harder to find food and have higher stress levels. We tested this hypothesis by attaching time-depth recorders to provisioning dovekies at three colonies adjacent to different water masses (the West Spistbergen Current, the East Greenland Current, and the Sorkapp Current). We determined the length of time dovekies at different colonies spent at-sea collecting food for themselves and their chicks. We measured circulating corticosteroid hormone levels in their blood to assess stress levels. We collected chick meals to determine the energetic content of prey fed chicks at the different colonies. We found that dovekies are sensitive to the quality of prey available to them. Dovekies exposed to less profitable prey made longer foraging trips and worked harder while at-sea to collect prey for themselves and their chicks. Furthermore, over the past 50 years, dovekies breeding along the western shores of Spitsbergen have initiated breeding earlier in spring as their nest sites have become snow-free at earlier dates. We evaluate the impact of earlier breeding and the timing of the development of the marine food web within different currents which advect and/or support Calanus copepods into the Greenland Sea. Future possible declines in dovekies may impact terrestrial food webs which are highly influenced by the annual input of nitrogen rich guano on the tundra adjacent to dovekie breeding colonies.

Late quaternary deltaic and carbonate sedimentation in the Gulf of Papua foreland basin: Response to sea-level change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, P.T.; Pattiaratchi, C.B.; Keene, J.B.; Dalrymple, R.W.; Gardner, J.V.; Baker, E.K.; Cole, A.R.; Mitchell, D.; Gibbs, P.; Schroeder, W.W.

1996-01-01

The rivers that drain the wet, mountainous island of New-Guinea discharge about 1.5 billion tonnes/yr of sediments into the adjacent seas, including the foreland basin between New Guinea and Australia. Despite this huge sediment input, there appears to have been only limited deposition in the Gulf of Papua during the (Holocene) postglacial rise in sea level. Seismic and core data indicate that the transgressive systems tract in the Gulf of Papua is thin and patchy. It is confined to regions within and north of an incised, east-west-trending shelf-valley system. Of the possible explanations for the absence of a significant transgressive systems tract, inland storage and along- and off-shelf transport of the sediment are of greatest significance. Reef growth up to the latitude of the east-west-trending incised-valley system in the southern Gulf of Papua is considered to have been facilitated by a northward-flowing coastal boundary current, the Coral Sea Coastal Current. This current now sweeps turbid, brackish waters and terrigenous sediments discharged by the rivers northwards away from the reefs. An observed northward offset in transgressive sediments in relation to the axis of the shelf valleys suggests that such a northward-flowing shelf current operated during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene. The northern limit of the Great Barrier Reef could thus be controlled by the balance between fluvial sediment supply and northward advection of suspended sediment by the Coral Sea Coastal Current. This current may also be important in maintaining a supply of clear water to the eastern Gulf of Papua, thus enabling photosynthesis and the flourishing of calcareous-algae (Halimeda) bioherms or biostromes at depths of up to 100 m over much of the middle and outer shelf, directly offshore of the modern Fly Delta. These carbonate sediments represent the exposed maximum flooding surface and condensed section. Modern highstand delta deposits have begun to prograde over this layer on the inner shelf. Copyright ?? 1996, SEPM (Society for Sedimentary Geology).

Mean Tide Level Data in the PSMSL Mean Sea Level Dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, Andrew; Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Gordon, Kathy; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Rickards, Lesley; Tamisiea, Mark; Williams, Simon; Woodworth, Philip

2016-04-01

The Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) is the internationally recognised global sea level data bank for long term sea level change information from tide gauges. Established in 1933, the PSMSL continues to be responsible for the collection, publication, analysis and interpretation of sea level data. The PSMSL operates under the auspices of the International Council for Science (ICSU), is a regular member of the ICSU World Data System and is associated with the International Association for the Physical Sciences of the Oceans (IAPSO) and the International Association of Geodesy (IAG). The PSMSL continues to work closely with other members of the sea level community through the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission's Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). Currently, the PSMSL data bank holds over 67,000 station-years of monthly and annual mean sea level data from over 2250 tide gauge stations. Data from each site are quality controlled and, wherever possible, reduced to a common datum, whose stability is monitored through a network of geodetic benchmarks. PSMSL also distributes a data bank of measurements taken from in-situ ocean bottom pressure recorders. Most of the records in the main PSMSL dataset indicate mean sea level (MSL), derived from high-frequency tide gauge data, with sampling typically once per hour or higher. However, some of the older data is based on mean tide level (MTL), which is obtained from measurements taken at high and low tide only. While usually very close, MSL and MTL can occasionally differ by many centimetres, particularly in shallow water locations. As a result, care must be taken when using long sea level records that contain periods of MTL data. Previously, periods during which the values indicated MTL rather than MSL were noted in the documentation, and sometimes suggested corrections were supplied. However, these comments were easy to miss, particularly in large scale studies that used multiple stations from across a wide area. Therefore, the PSMSL have decided to begin applying a correction to all mixed MTL/MSL records in its datum-controlled RLR dataset, where a suitable correction is available. These corrections will be clearly flagged, allowing users of PSMSL data to quickly identify these values and ignore these data, or apply a different correction. Here we describe the corrections applied to the PSMSL dataset, how users can find MTL data and the corrections made, and some caveats and warnings that need to be considered.

Implications of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Flood Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roeber, V.; Li, N.; Cheung, K.; Lane, P.; Evans, R. L.; Donnelly, J. P.; Ashton, A. D.

2012-12-01

Recent global and local projections suggest the sea level will be on the order of 1 m or higher than the current level by the end of the century. Coastal communities and ecosystems in low-lying areas are vulnerable to impacts resulting from hurricane or large swell events in combination with sea-level rise. This study presents the implementation and results of an integrated numerical modeling package to delineate coastal inundation due to storm landfalls at future sea levels. The modeling package utilizes a suite of numerical models to capture both large-scale phenomena in the open ocean and small-scale processes in coastal areas. It contains four components to simulate (1) meteorological conditions, (2) astronomical tides and surge, (3) wave generation, propagation, and nearshore transformation, and (4) surf-zone processes and inundation onto dry land associated with a storm event. Important aspects of this package are the two-way coupling of a spectral wave model and a storm surge model as well as a detailed representation of surf and swash zone dynamics by a higher-order Boussinesq-type wave model. The package was validated with field data from Hurricane Ivan of 2005 on the US Gulf coast and applied to tropical and extratropical storm scenarios respectively at Eglin, Florida and Camp Lejeune, North Carolina. The results show a nonlinear increase of storm surge level and nearshore wave energy with a rising sea level. The exacerbated flood hazard can have major consequences for coastal communities with respect to erosion and damage to infrastructure.

The characteristics and dynamics of wave-driven flow across a platform coral reef in the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lentz, S. J.; Churchill, J. H.; Davis, K. A.; Farrar, J. T.; Pineda, J.; Starczak, V.

2016-02-01

Current dynamics across a platform reef in the Red Sea near Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, are examined using 18 months of current profile, pressure, surface wave, and wind observations. The platform reef is 700 m long, 200 m across with spatial and temporal variations in water depth over the reef ranging from 0.6 to 1.6 m. Surface waves breaking at the seaward edge of the reef cause a 2-10 cm setup of sea level that drives cross-reef currents of 5-20 cm s-1. Bottom stress is a significant component of the wave setup balance in the surf zone. Over the reef flat, where waves are not breaking, the cross-reef pressure gradient associated with wave setup is balanced by bottom stress. The quadratic drag coefficient for the depth-average flow decreases with increasing water depth from Cda = 0.17 in 0.4 m of water to Cda = 0.03 in 1.2 m of water. The observed dependence of the drag coefficient on water depth is consistent with open-channel flow theory and a hydrodynamic roughness of zo = 0.06 m. A simple one-dimensional model driven by incident surface waves and wind stress accurately reproduces the observed depth-averaged cross-reef currents and a portion of the weaker along-reef currents over the focus reef and two other Red Sea platform reefs. The model indicates the cross-reef current is wave forced and the along-reef current is partially wind forced.

Glaciers and Sea Level Rise

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

Calving front of the Perito Moreno Glacier (Argentina). Contrary to the majority of the glaciers from the southern Patagonian ice field, the Perito Moreno Glacier is currently stable. It is also one of the most visited glaciers in the world. To learn about the contributions of glaciers to sea level rise, visit: www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/glacier-sea-rise.html Credit: Etienne Berthier, Université de Toulouse NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

The Future of the Mississippi Delta: Shifting Baselines, Diminishing Resilience, and Growing Non-Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Detrick, R. S.; Hafner, K.; Davis, J. P.; Wilson, D.; Woodward, R.

2016-12-01

Ecosystems and human communities of the Mississippi delta developed with predictable basin inputs, stable sea level, and as an open system with a high degree of interaction among drainage basin inputs, deltaic plain, and the coastal sea. Human activity changed altered the coast and lowered predictability. Management has become very energy intensive and dependent on cheap resources with more hard engineering and less ecological engineering. Pervasive alteration of the basin and delta and global change have altered the baseline and change is accelerating. Climate change projections include not only sea-level rise, but also more stronger hurricanes, increased large river floods, and more intense rainfall events and droughts. A sustainable Mississippi is outside of the boundaries of the current CMP.

The Future of the Mississippi Delta: Shifting Baselines, Diminishing Resilience, and Growing Non-Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, J.

2017-12-01

Ecosystems and human communities of the Mississippi delta developed with predictable basin inputs, stable sea level, and as an open system with a high degree of interaction among drainage basin inputs, deltaic plain, and the coastal sea. Human activity changed altered the coast and lowered predictability. Management has become very energy intensive and dependent on cheap resources with more hard engineering and less ecological engineering. Pervasive alteration of the basin and delta and global change have altered the baseline and change is accelerating. Climate change projections include not only sea-level rise, but also more stronger hurricanes, increased large river floods, and more intense rainfall events and droughts. A sustainable Mississippi is outside of the boundaries of the current CMP.

Spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar Survey of Subsidence in Hampton Roads, Virginia (USA).

PubMed

Bekaert, D P S; Hamlington, B D; Buzzanga, B; Jones, C E

2017-11-07

Over the past century, the Hampton Roads area of the Chesapeake Bay region has experienced one of the highest rates of relative sea level rise on the Atlantic coast of the United States. This rate of relative sea level rise results from a combination of land subsidence, which has long been known to be present in the region, and rising seas associated with global warming on long timescales and exacerbated by shifts in ocean dynamics on shorter timescales. An understanding of the current-day magnitude of each component is needed to create accurate projections of future relative sea level rise upon which to base planning efforts. The objective of this study is to estimate the land component of relative sea level rise using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) analysis applied to ALOS-1 synthetic aperture radar data acquired during 2007-2011 to generate high-spatial resolution (20-30 m) estimates of vertical land motion. Although these results are limited by the uncertainty associated with the small set of available historical SAR data, they highlight both localized rates of high subsidence and a significant spatial variability in subsidence, emphasizing the need for further measurement, which could be done with Sentinel-1 and NASA's upcoming NISAR mission.

Wind-driven changes of surface current, temperature, and chlorophyll observed by satellites north of New Guinea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radenac, Marie-Hélène; Léger, Fabien; Messié, Monique; Dutrieux, Pierre; Menkes, Christophe; Eldin, Gérard

2016-04-01

Satellite observations of wind, sea level and derived currents, sea surface temperature (SST), and chlorophyll are used to expand our understanding of the physical and biological variability of the ocean surface north of New Guinea. Based on scarce cruise and mooring data, previous studies differentiated a trade wind situation (austral winter) when the New Guinea Coastal Current (NGCC) flows northwestward and a northwest monsoon situation (austral summer) when a coastal upwelling develops and the NGCC reverses. This circulation pattern is confirmed by satellite observations, except in Vitiaz Strait where the surface northwestward flow persists. We find that intraseasonal and seasonal time scale variations explain most of the variance north of New Guinea. SST and chlorophyll variabilities are mainly driven by two processes: penetration of Solomon Sea waters and coastal upwelling. In the trade wind situation, the NGCC transports cold Solomon Sea waters through Vitiaz Strait in a narrow vein hugging the coast. Coastal upwelling is generated in westerly wind situations (westerly wind event, northwest monsoon). Highly productive coastal waters are advected toward the equator and, during some westerly wind events, toward the eastern part of the warm pool. During El Niño, coastal upwelling events and northward penetration of Solomon Sea waters combine to influence SST and chlorophyll anomalies.

Geomorphic interaction among climate, sea levels and karst groundwater: the Taranto area (South of Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spilotro, Giuseppe; Fidelibus, Maria Dolores; Argentiero, Ilenia; Pellicani, Roberta; Parisi, Alessandro; Di Modugno, Antonella

2017-04-01

The area of Taranto (Apulia region, Italy) has an extraordinary environmental and landscape value, which derives from its specific geological, geomorphological and hydrogeological conditions: they represent the effect of a complex mechanism of interaction in the geological time among the sea, its level variations and stands driven by climate changes, karst groundwater and the geo lithological frame. The knowledge of this interaction spans over two very different time duration: the first is subsequent to the sedimentary pleistocenic deposition and diagenesis and lasts until the late Holocene; the second spans over a more limited time durations, from the LIA until today, and its knowledge is mainly based on hystorical topographic records and reports. The general geological and stratigraphical setting is represented by marine deposits, which fill the Bradanic Trough, shaped in the upper part as marine terraces bordering the W and SW side of the Murgian carbonate platform (Apulia, South of Italy) as well. This latter constitutes an important karst hydro-structure, fed by precipitation, bordered on the opposite side of the Bradanic Trough by the Adriatic Sea. Fresh groundwater hosted in the huge coastal aquifer freely flows towards the Adriatic coast, while on the opposite W-NW side, the continuous confinement by the impermeable filling of the trough, forces the underground drainage of the aquifer towards the Ionian Sea just in the Taranto area. The overall flow rate of the groundwater through submarine and subaerial coastal springs, according to the current sea level, is significant and currently estimated in about 18 m3/sec. Climate changes have forced over geological time, but also in shorter periods, sea level changes and stands, consequently correlated to groundwater levels. This allowed genesis of selected karst levels, of regional extension, both at the surface or underground, which arise as typical forms, namely polje and karst plane inland, terraces on the sea front, doline and caves near surface and underground. In the area of Taranto the changes in sea level resulted in active or fossil aquifer discharge points; the outflow areas of the aquifer into the sea are associated with specific morphologies distributed at various elevations in form of numerous elliptical sea basins or salt pan at higher elevations. A thorough geological study, accompanied by a significant number of stratigraphic and hydrogeological data, some datations, high resolution DTMs and bathymetric surveys allowed an excellent reconstruction of the geomorphological processes in the long (geological time span) term. Historical investigations allowed a significant recognition of such processes in more recent ages (starting from the Little Ice Age), reported by different levels of hydrological activities in these areas. More generally, it is possible to recognize in the study area the constraining morphogenetic power of groundwater outflow, which reveals in very characteristic morphologies, erosional basins and salt pans in the final evolution, on carbonate mainland and in the overlying marine terraces, at the elevations of the different sea level standstills. Thus, a narrow area embraces all kind of morphologies, whether those related to a still active outflow, or those in the final evolution or fossil condition, in a range of elevations varying between 60 m ASL and 40 m BSL according present knowledges.

Dynamics of Clouds and Mesoscale Circulations over the Maritime Continent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Y.; Wang, S.; Xian, P.; Reid, J. S.; Nachamkin, J.

2010-12-01

In recent decades Southeast Asia (SEA) has seen rapid economic growth as well as increased biomass burning, resulting in high air pollution levels and reduced air qual-ity. At the same time clouds often prevent accurate air-quality monitoring and analysis using satellite observations. The Seven SouthEast Asian Studies (7SEAS) field campaign currently underway over SEA provides an unprecedented opportunity to study the com-plex interplay between aerosol and clouds. 7SEAS is a comprehensive interdisciplinary atmospheric sciences program through international partnership of NASA, NRL, ONR and seven local institutions including those from Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. While the original goal of 7SEAS is to iso-late the impacts of aerosol particles on weather and the environment, it is recognized that better understanding of SEA meteorological conditions, especially those associated with cloud formation and evolution, is critical to the success of the campaign. In this study we attempt to gain more insight into the dynamic and physical processes associated with low level clouds and atmospheric circulation at the regional scale over SEA, using the Navy’s Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS® ), a regional forecast model in operation at FNMOC since 1998. This effort comprises two main components. First, multiple-years of COAMPS operational forecasts over SEA are analyzed for basic climatology of atmospheric fea-tures. Second, mesoscale circulation and cloud properties are simulated at relatively higher resolution (15-km) for selected periods in the Gulf of Tonkin and adjacent coastal areas. Simulation results are compared to MODIS cloud observations and local sound-ings obtained during 7SEAS for model verifications. Atmospheric boundary layer proc-esses are examined in relation to spatial and temporal variations of cloud fields. The cur-rent work serves as an important step toward improving our understanding of the effects of aerosol particles on maritime clouds. The detailed analysis will be presented at the conference.

Ground air: A first approximation of the Earth's second largest reservoir of carbon dioxide gas.

PubMed

Baldini, James U L; Bertram, Rachel A; Ridley, Harriet E

2018-03-01

It is becoming increasingly clear that a substantial reservoir of carbon exists in the unsaturated zone of aquifers, though the total size of this reservoir on a global scale remains unquantified. Here we provide the first broad estimate of the amount of carbon dioxide gas found in this terrestrial reservoir. We calculate that between 2 and 53 PgC exists as gaseous CO 2 in aquifers worldwide, generated by the slow microbial oxidation of organic particles transported into aquifers by percolating groundwater. Importantly, this carbon reservoir is in the form of CO 2 gas, and is therefore transferable to the Earth's atmosphere without any phase change. On a coarse scale, water table depths are partially controlled by local sea level; sea level lowering therefore allows slow carbon sequestration into the reservoir and sea level increases force rapid CO 2 outgassing from this reservoir. High-resolution cave air pCO 2 data demonstrate that sea level variability does affect CO 2 outgassing rates from the unsaturated zone, and that the CO 2 outgassing due to sea level rise currently occurs on daily (tidal) timescales. We suggest that global mean water table depth must modulate the global unsaturated zone volume and the size of this carbon reservoir, potentially affecting atmospheric CO 2 on geological timescales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) ‐ New functionality for predicting changes in distribution of submerged aquatic vegetation in response to sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee II, Henry; Reusser, Deborah A.; Frazier, Melanie R; McCoy, Lee M; Clinton, Patrick J.; Clough, Jonathan S.

2014-01-01

The “Sea‐Level Affecting Marshes Model” (SLAMM) is a moderate resolution model used to predict the effects of sea level rise on marsh habitats (Craft et al. 2009). SLAMM has been used extensively on both the west coast (e.g., Glick et al., 2007) and east coast (e.g., Geselbracht et al., 2011) of the United States to evaluate potential changes in the distribution and extent of tidal marsh habitats. However, a limitation of the current version of SLAMM, (Version 6.2) is that it lacks the ability to model distribution changes in seagrass habitat resulting from sea level rise. Because of the ecological importance of SAV habitats, U.S. EPA, USGS, and USDA partnered with Warren Pinnacle Consulting to enhance the SLAMM modeling software to include new functionality in order to predict changes in Zostera marina distribution within Pacific Northwest estuaries in response to sea level rise. Specifically, the objective was to develop a SAV model that used generally available GIS data and parameters that were predictive and that could be customized for other estuaries that have GIS layers of existing SAV distribution. This report describes the procedure used to develop the SAV model for the Yaquina Bay Estuary, Oregon, appends a statistical script based on the open source R software to generate a similar SAV model for other estuaries that have data layers of existing SAV, and describes how to incorporate the model coefficients from the site‐specific SAV model into SLAMM to predict the effects of sea level rise on Zostera marina distributions. To demonstrate the applicability of the R tools, we utilize them to develop model coefficients for Willapa Bay, Washington using site‐specific SAV data.

Determination of Interannual to Decadal Changes in Ice Sheet Mass Balance from Satellite Altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Busalacchi, Antonioa J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A major uncertainty in predicting sea level rise is the sensitivity of ice sheet mass balance to climate change, as well as the uncertainty in present mass balance. Since the annual water exchange is about 8 mm of global sea level equivalent, the +/- 25% uncertainty in current mass balance corresponds to +/- 2 mm/yr in sea level change. Furthermore, estimates of the sensitivity of the mass balance to temperature change range from perhaps as much as - 10% to + 10% per K. Although the overall ice mass balance and seasonal and inter-annual variations can be derived from time-series of ice surface elevations from satellite altimetry, satellite radar altimeters have been limited in spatial coverage and elevation accuracy. Nevertheless, new data analysis shows mixed patterns of ice elevation increases and decreases that are significant in terms of regional-scale mass balances. In addition, observed seasonal and interannual variations in elevation demonstrate the potential for relating the variability in mass balance to changes in precipitation, temperature, and melting. From 2001, NASA's ICESat laser altimeter mission will provide significantly better elevation accuracy and spatial coverage to 86 deg latitude and to the margins of the ice sheets. During 3 to 5 years of ICESat-1 operation, an estimate of the overall ice sheet mass balance and sea level contribution will be obtained. The importance of continued ice monitoring after the first ICESat is illustrated by the variability in the area of Greenland surface melt observed over 17-years and its correlation with temperature. In addition, measurement of ice sheet changes, along with measurements of sea level change by a series of ocean altimeters, should enable direct detection of ice level and global sea level correlations.

Neuro-fuzzy and neural network techniques for forecasting sea level in Darwin Harbor, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karimi, Sepideh; Kisi, Ozgur; Shiri, Jalal; Makarynskyy, Oleg

2013-03-01

Accurate predictions of sea level with different forecast horizons are important for coastal and ocean engineering applications, as well as in land drainage and reclamation studies. The methodology of tidal harmonic analysis, which is generally used for obtaining a mathematical description of the tides, is data demanding requiring processing of tidal observation collected over several years. In the present study, hourly sea levels for Darwin Harbor, Australia were predicted using two different, data driven techniques, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and artificial neural network (ANN). Multi linear regression (MLR) technique was used for selecting the optimal input combinations (lag times) of hourly sea level. The input combination comprises current sea level as well as five previous level values found to be optimal. For the ANFIS models, five different membership functions namely triangular, trapezoidal, generalized bell, Gaussian and two Gaussian membership function were tested and employed for predicting sea level for the next 1 h, 24 h, 48 h and 72 h. The used ANN models were trained using three different algorithms, namely, Levenberg-Marquardt, conjugate gradient and gradient descent. Predictions of optimal ANFIS and ANN models were compared with those of the optimal auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models. The coefficient of determination, root mean square error and variance account statistics were used as comparison criteria. The obtained results indicated that triangular membership function was optimal for predictions with the ANFIS models while adaptive learning rate and Levenberg-Marquardt were most suitable for training the ANN models. Consequently, ANFIS and ANN models gave similar forecasts and performed better than the developed for the same purpose ARMA models for all the prediction intervals.

Sea Level History in 3D: Early results of an ultra-high resolution MCS survey across IODP Expedition 313 drillsites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mountain, G. S.; Kucuk, H. M.; Nedimovic, M. R.; Austin, J. A., Jr.; Fulthorpe, C.; Newton, A.; Baldwin, K.; Johnson, C.; Stanley, J. N.; Bhatnagar, T.

2015-12-01

Although globally averaged sea level is rising at roughly 3 mm/yr (and is accelerating), rates of local sea-level change measured at coastlines may differ from this number by a factor of two or more; at some locations, sea level may even be falling. This is due to local processes that can match or even reverse the global trend, making it clear that reliable predictions of future impacts of sea-level rise require a firm understanding of processes at the local level. The history of local sea-level change and shoreline response is contained in the geologic record of shallow-water sediments. We report on a continuing study of sea-level history in sediments at the New Jersey continental margin, where compaction and glacial isostatic adjustment are currently adding 2 mm/yr to the globally averaged rise. We collected 570 sq km of ultra-high resolution 3D MCS data aboard the R/V Langseth in June-July 2015; innovative recording and preliminary results are described by Nedimovic et al. in this same session. The goal was to provide regional context to coring and logging at IODP Exp 313 sites 27-29 that were drilled 750 m into the New Jersey shelf in 2009. These sites recovered a nearly continuous record of post-Eocene sediments from non-marine soils, estuaries, shoreface, delta front, pro-delta and open marine settings. Existing seismic data are good but are 2D high-resolution profiles at line spacings too wide to enable mapping of key nearshore features. The Langseth 3D survey used shallow towing of a tuned air gun array to preserve high frequencies, and twenty-four 50-m PCables each 12.5 apart provided 6.25 x 3.125 m common-midpoint bins along seventy-seven 50-km sail lines. With this especially dense spatial resolution of a pre-stack time migrated volume we expect to map rivers, incised valleys, barrier islands, inlets and bays, pro-delta clinoforms, tidal deltas, sequence boundaries, debris flow aprons, and more. Seismic attributes linked to sedimentary facies and geochronology at Exp 313 drill sites will be extended throughout the volume to map the local response to global sea-level change. These analyses will provide an unrivaled opportunity to gauge the local expression of sea-level change for much of the last 40 Ma and lead to informed predictions regarding impacts of a global rise of sea level expected to continue well into the future.

Mass-induced [|#8#|]Sea Level Variations in the Red Sea from Satellite Altimetry and GRACE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, W.; Lemoine, J.; Zhong, M.; Hsu, H.

2011-12-01

We have analyzed mass-induced sea level variations (SLVs) in the Red Sea from steric-corrected altimetry and GRACE between January 2003 and December 2010. The steric component of SLVs in the Red Sea calculated from climatological temperature and salinity data is relatively small and anti-phase with the mass-induced SLV. The total SLV in the Red Sea is mainly driven by the mass-induced SLV, which increases in winter when the Red Sea gains the water mass from the Gulf of Aden and vice versa in summer. Spatial and temporal patterns of mass-induced SLVs in the Red Sea from steric-corrected altimetry agree very well with GRACE observations. Both of two independent observations show high annual amplitude in the central Red Sea (>20cm). Total mass-induced SLVs in the Red Sea from two independent observations have similar annual amplitude and phase. One main purpose of our work is to see whether GRGS's ten-day GRACE results can observe intra-seasonal mass change in the Red Sea. The wavelet coherence analysis indicates that GRGS's results show the high correlation with the steric-corrected SLVs on intra-seasonal time scale. The agreement is excellent for all the time-span until 1/3 year period and is patchy between 1/3 and 1/16 year period. Furthermore, water flux estimates from current-meter arrays and moorings show mass gain in winter and mass loss in summer, which is also consistent with altimetry and GRACE.

Sea Ice Biogeochemistry: A Guide for Modellers

PubMed Central

Tedesco, Letizia; Vichi, Marcello

2014-01-01

Sea ice is a fundamental component of the climate system and plays a key role in polar trophic food webs. Nonetheless sea ice biogeochemical dynamics at large temporal and spatial scales are still rarely described. Numerical models may potentially contribute integrating among sparse observations, but available models of sea ice biogeochemistry are still scarce, whether their relevance for properly describing the current and future state of the polar oceans has been recently addressed. A general methodology to develop a sea ice biogeochemical model is presented, deriving it from an existing validated model application by extension of generic pelagic biogeochemistry model parameterizations. The described methodology is flexible and considers different levels of ecosystem complexity and vertical representation, while adopting a strategy of coupling that ensures mass conservation. We show how to apply this methodology step by step by building an intermediate complexity model from a published realistic application and applying it to analyze theoretically a typical season of first-year sea ice in the Arctic, the one currently needing the most urgent understanding. The aim is to (1) introduce sea ice biogeochemistry and address its relevance to ocean modelers of polar regions, supporting them in adding a new sea ice component to their modelling framework for a more adequate representation of the sea ice-covered ocean ecosystem as a whole, and (2) extend our knowledge on the relevant controlling factors of sea ice algal production, showing that beyond the light and nutrient availability, the duration of the sea ice season may play a key-role shaping the algal production during the on going and upcoming projected changes. PMID:24586604

Contamination of short-chain chlorinated paraffins to the biotic and abiotic environments in the Bohai Sea.

PubMed

Jiang, Wanyanhan; Huang, Tao; Chen, Han; Lian, Lulu; Liang, Xiaoxue; Jia, Chenhui; Gao, Hong; Mao, Xiaoxuan; Zhao, Yuan; Ma, Jianmin

2018-02-01

Short-chain chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs) have been produced and emitted intensively around the Bohai Sea, potentially causing risks to this unique ecosystem and one of primary fishery resources in China and busiest seaways in the world. Little is known about fate, cycling, and sources of SCCPs in the Bohai Sea biotic and abiotic environment. In this study, we combined a marine food web model with a comprehensive atmospheric transport-multiple phase exchange model to quantify SCCPs in the biotic and abiotic environment in the Bohai Sea. We performed multiple modeling scenario investigations to examine SCCP levels in water, sediment, and phytoplankton. We assessed numerically dry and wet depositions, biomagnification and bioaccumulation of SCCPs in the Bohai Sea marine food web. Results showed declining SCCP levels in water and sediment with increasing distance from the coastline, and so do dry and wet depositions. The net deposition overwhelmed the water-air exchange of SCCPs due to their current use in China, though the diffusive gas deposition fluctuated monthly subject to mean wind speed and temperature. A risk assessment manifests that SCCPs levels in the Bohai Sea fish species are at present not posing risks to the residents in the Bohai Sea Rim region. We identified that the SCCP emission sources in the south of the Bohai Sea made a primary contribution to its loadings to the seawater and fish contamination associated with the East Asian summer monsoon. In contrast, the SCCP emissions from the north and northwest regions of the Bohai Sea were major sources contributing to their loading and contamination to Bohai Sea food web during the wintertime, potentially driven by the East Asian winter monsoon. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cross-calibrating ALES Envisat and CryoSat-2 Delay-Doppler: A coastal altimetry study in the Indonesian Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passaro, Marcello; Dinardo, Salvatore; Quartly, Graham D.; Snaith, Helen M.; Benveniste, Jérôme; Cipollini, Paolo; Lucas, Bruno

2016-08-01

A regional cross-calibration between the first Delay-Doppler altimetry dataset from CryoSat-2 and a retracked Envisat dataset is here presented, in order to test the benefits of the Delay-Doppler processing and to expand the Envisat time series in the coastal ocean. The Indonesian Seas are chosen for the calibration, since the availability of altimetry data in this region is particularly beneficial due to the lack of in situ measurements and its importance for global ocean circulation. The Envisat data in the region are retracked with the Adaptive Leading Edge Subwaveform (ALES) retracker, which has been previously validated and applied successfully to coastal sea level research. The study demonstrates that CryoSat-2 is able to decrease the 1-Hz noise of sea level estimations by 0.3 cm within 50 km of the coast, when compared to the ALES-reprocessed Envisat dataset. It also shows that Envisat can be confidently used for detailed oceanographic research after the orbit change of October 2010. Cross-calibration at the crossover points indicates that in the region of study a sea state bias correction equal to 5% of the significant wave height is an acceptable approximation for Delay-Doppler altimetry. The analysis of the joint sea level time series reveals the geographic extent of the semiannual signal caused by Kelvin waves during the monsoon transitions, the larger amplitudes of the annual signal due to the Java Coastal Current and the impact of the strong La Niña event of 2010 on rising sea level trends.

The diagnosis and forecast system of hydrometeorological characteristics for the White, Barents, Kara and Pechora Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fomin, Vladimir; Diansky, Nikolay; Gusev, Anatoly; Kabatchenko, Ilia; Panasenkova, Irina

2017-04-01

The diagnosis and forecast system for simulating hydrometeorological characteristics of the Russian Western Arctic seas is presented. It performs atmospheric forcing computation with the regional non-hydrostatic atmosphere model Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with spatial resolution 15 km, as well as computation of circulation, sea level, temperature, salinity and sea ice with the marine circulation model INMOM (Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model) with spatial resolution 2.7 km, and the computation of wind wave parameters using the Russian wind-wave model (RWWM) with spatial resolution 5 km. Verification of the meteorological characteristics is done for air temperature, air pressure, wind velocity, water temperature, currents, sea level anomaly, wave characteristics such as wave height and wave period. The results of the hydrometeorological characteristic verification are presented for both retrospective and forecast computations. The retrospective simulation of the hydrometeorological characteristics for the White, Barents, Kara and Pechora Seas was performed with the diagnosis and forecast system for the period 1986-2015. The important features of the Kara Sea circulation are presented. Water exchange between Pechora and Kara Seas is described. The importance is shown of using non-hydrostatic atmospheric circulation model for the atmospheric forcing computation in coastal areas. According to the computation results, extreme values of hydrometeorological characteristics were obtained for the Russian Western Arctic seas.

On the dense water spreading off the Ross Sea shelf (Southern Ocean)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budillon, G.; Gremes Cordero, S.; Salusti, E.

2002-07-01

In this study, current meter and hydrological data obtained during the X Italian Expedition in the Ross Sea (CLIMA Project) are analyzed. Our data show a nice agreement with previous data referring to the water masses present in this area and their dynamics. Here, they are used to further analyze the mixing and deepening processes of Deep Ice Shelf Water (DISW) over the northern shelf break of the Ross Sea. In more detail, our work is focused on the elementary mechanisms that are the most efficient in removing dense water from the shelf: either classical mixing effects or density currents that interact with some topographic irregularity in order to drop to deeper levels, or also the variability of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) which, in its meandering, can push the dense water off the shelf, thus interrupting its geostrophic flow. We also discuss in detail the (partial) evidence of dramatic interactions of the dense water with bottom particulate, of geological or biological origin, thus generating impulsive or quasi-steady density-turbidity currents. This complex interaction allows one to consider bottom particular and dense water as a unique self-interacting system. In synthesis, this is a first tentative analysis of the effect of bottom particulate on the dense water dynamics in the Ross Sea.

Long-term temporal and spatial trends in eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea.

PubMed

Andersen, Jesper H; Carstensen, Jacob; Conley, Daniel J; Dromph, Karsten; Fleming-Lehtinen, Vivi; Gustafsson, Bo G; Josefson, Alf B; Norkko, Alf; Villnäs, Anna; Murray, Ciarán

2017-02-01

Much of the Baltic Sea is currently classified as 'affected by eutrophication'. The causes for this are twofold. First, current levels of nutrient inputs (nitrogen and phosphorus) from human activities exceed the natural processing capacity with an accumulation of nutrients in the Baltic Sea over the last 50-100 years. Secondly, the Baltic Sea is naturally susceptible to nutrient enrichment due to a combination of long retention times and stratification restricting ventilation of deep waters. Here, based on a unique data set collated from research activities and long-term monitoring programs, we report on the temporal and spatial trends of eutrophication status for the open Baltic Sea over a 112-year period using the HELCOM Eutrophication Assessment Tool (HEAT 3.0). Further, we analyse variation in the confidence of the eutrophication status assessment based on a systematic quantitative approach using coefficients of variation in the observations. The classifications in our assessment indicate that the first signs of eutrophication emerged in the mid-1950s and the central parts of the Baltic Sea changed from being unaffected by eutrophication to being affected. We document improvements in eutrophication status that are direct consequences of long-term efforts to reduce the inputs of nutrients. The reductions in both nitrogen and phosphorus loads have led to large-scale alleviation of eutrophication and to a healthier Baltic Sea. Reduced confidence in our assessment is seen more recently due to reductions in the scope of monitoring programs. Our study sets a baseline for implementation of the ecosystem-based management strategies and policies currently in place including the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directives and the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan. © 2015 The Authors. Biological Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Modeling the influence of climate change on the mass balance of polychlorinated biphenyls in the Adriatic Sea.

PubMed

Lamon, Lara; MacLeod, Matthew; Marcomini, Antonio; Hungerbühler, Konrad

2012-05-01

Climate forcing is forecasted to influence the Adriatic Sea region in a variety of ways, including increasing temperature, and affecting wind speeds, marine currents, precipitation and water salinity. The Adriatic Sea is intensively developed with agriculture, industry, and port activities that introduce pollutants to the environment. Here, we developed and applied a Level III fugacity model for the Adriatic Sea to estimate the current mass balance of polychlorinated biphenyls in the Sea, and to examine the effects of a climate change scenario on the distribution of these pollutants. The model's performance was evaluated for three PCB congeners against measured concentrations in the region using environmental parameters estimated from the 20th century climate scenario described in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) by the IPCC, and using Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. We find that modeled fugacities of PCBs in air, water and sediment of the Adriatic are in good agreement with observations. The model indicates that PCBs in the Adriatic Sea are closely coupled with the atmosphere, which acts as a net source to the water column. We used model experiments to assess the influence of changes in temperature, wind speed, precipitation, marine currents, particulate organic carbon and air inflow concentrations forecast in the IPCC A1B climate change scenario on the mass balance of PCBs in the Sea. Assuming an identical PCBs' emission profile (e.g. use pattern, treatment/disposal of stockpiles, mode of entry), modeled fugacities of PCBs in the Adriatic Sea under the A1B climate scenario are higher because higher temperatures reduce the fugacity capacity of air, water and sediments, and because diffusive sources to the air are stronger. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Barrier island response to an elevated sea-level anomaly: Onslow Beach, North Carolina, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theuerkauf, E. J.; Rodriguez, A. B.; Fegley, S. R.; Luettich, R.

2012-12-01

Variations in sea level over time scales ranging from hours to millennia influence coastal processes and evolution. At annual time scales, elevated sea-level anomalies produce coastal flooding and promote beach erosion. This study examines the coastal response of Onslow Beach, North Carolina to the summer 2009 East Coast sea-level anomaly. Onslow Beach is a 12-km-long wave-dominated barrier island with highly variable along-barrier morphology. The transgressive southern portion of the island is characterized by a narrow beach, low dunes, and multiple washover fans, while the regressive northern portion is characterized by a wide beach and continuous tall dunes. Hourly tide gauge data from adjacent NOAA stations (Beaufort and Wrightsville Beach) are used to determine the timing and extent of elevated water levels. The seasonal and longer term trends (relative sea level rise) are removed from both of the water level series and the sea-level anomaly is represented by a large residual between the observed and predicted water levels. Beach response is quantified using terrestrial laser scanning for morphology and from geoprobe cores to determine the maximum depth of erosion (MDOE). The mean high water (MHW) shoreline and dune toe are digitized from digital elevation models derived from the laser scans and analyzed using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS). Landward (negative) movement of these contacts indicates erosion. Wave data collected from an Acoustic Wave and Current Meter (AWAC) located offshore of the southern end of Onslow Beach is used to characterize the wave regime throughout the study. Water level is elevated in the tide gauge data from June 2009 to March 2010. This sea-level anomaly corresponds with an increase in the maximum depth of erosion between 2009 and 2010. Landward movement of the MHW shoreline and the dunetoe increased during the period between September 2009 and May 2010 indicating an increase in beach erosion during the sea-level anomaly. No significant increase in wave height was observed during this period, suggesting that the increase in beach erosion resulted from the sea-level anomaly. The sites that were strongly impacted by the sea-level anomaly did not fully recover from the beach erosion and consequently experienced large amounts of erosion in response to Hurricane Irene in 2011. These results suggest that long duration (weeks to months) high water levels cause changes to the beach similar to those generally thought to occur only during large storms. Dune erosion from higher sea levels weakens a beaches defense to storms, leading to increased beach erosion and overwash if a storm occurs before the beach can recover. It is likely that similar high water events will increase in duration and magnitude with future climate change, leading to increased "fair-weather" beach erosion and priming the system for devastating hurricane impacts.

The impact of shipping emissions on air pollution in the greater North Sea region - Part 1: Current emissions and concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aulinger, A.; Matthias, V.; Zeretzke, M.; Bieser, J.; Quante, M.; Backes, A.

2016-01-01

The North Sea is one of the areas with the highest ship traffic densities worldwide. At any time, about 3000 ships are sailing its waterways. Previous scientific publications have shown that ships contribute significantly to atmospheric concentrations of NOx, particulate matter and ozone. Especially in the case of particulate matter and ozone, this influence can even be seen in regions far away from the main shipping routes. In order to quantify the effects of North Sea shipping on air quality in its bordering states, it is essential to determine the emissions from shipping as accurately as possible. Within Interreg IVb project Clean North Sea Shipping (CNSS), a bottom-up approach was developed and used to thoroughly compile such an emission inventory for 2011 that served as the base year for the current emission situation. The innovative aspect of this approach was to use load-dependent functions to calculate emissions from the ships' current activities instead of averaged emission factors for the entire range of the engine loads. These functions were applied to ship activities that were derived from hourly records of Automatic Identification System signals together with a database containing the engine characteristics of the vessels that traveled the North Sea in 2011. The emission model yielded ship emissions among others of NOx and SO2 at high temporal and spatial resolution that were subsequently used in a chemistry transport model in order to simulate the impact of the emissions on pollutant concentration levels. The total emissions of nitrogen reached 540 Gg and those of sulfur oxides 123 Gg within the North Sea - including the adjacent western part of the Baltic Sea until 5° W. This was about twice as much of those of a medium-sized industrialized European state like the Netherlands. The relative contribution of ships to, for example, NO2 concentration levels ashore close to the sea can reach up to 25 % in summer and 15 % in winter. Some hundred kilometers away from the sea, the contribution was about 6 % in summer and 4 % in winter. The relative contribution of the secondary pollutant NO3- was found to reach 20 % in summer and 6 % in winter even far from the shore.

Sensitivity of Hurricane Storm Surge to Land Cover and Topography Under Various Sea Level Rise Scenarios Along the Mississippi Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.

2013-12-01

Major Gulf hurricanes have a high probability of impacting the northern Gulf of Mexico, especially coastal Mississippi (Resio, 2007). Due to the wide and flat continental shelf, this area provides near-perfect geometry for high water levels under tropical cyclone conditions. Literature suggests with 'very high confidence that global sea level will rise at least 0.2 m and no more than 2.0 m by 2011' (Donoghue, 2011; Parris et al., 2012). Further, it is recognized that the Mississippi barrier islands are highly susceptible to a westward migration and retreating shoreline. With predictions for less frequent, more intense tropical storms, rising sea levels, and a changing landscape, it is important to understand how these changes may affect inundation extent and flooding due to hurricane storm surge. A state-of-the-art SWAN+ADCIRC hydrodynamic model of coastal Mississippi was utilized to simulate Hurricane Katrina with present day sea level conditions. Using present day as a base scenario, past (1960) and future (2050) sea level changes were simulated. In addition to altering the initial sea state, land use land cover (LULC) was modified for 1960 and 2050 based on historic data and future projections. LULC datasets are used to derive surface roughness characteristics, such as Manning's n, and wind reduction factors. The topography along the barrier islands and near the Pascagoula River, MS was also altered to reflect the 1960 landscape. Storm surge sensitivity to topographic change were addressed by comparing model results between two 1960 storm surge simulations; one with current topography and a second with changes to the barrier islands. In addition, model responses to changes in LULC are compared. The results will be used to gain insight into adapting present day storm surge models for future conditions. References Donoghue, J. (2011). Sea level history of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast and sea level rise scenarios for the near future. Climatic Change, 107(1-2), 17-33. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0077-x Parris, A., Bromirski, P., Burkett, V., Cayan, D., Culver, M., Hall, J., . . . Weiss, J. (2012). Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo OAR CPO-1 (pp. 37). Resio, D. T. (2007). White paper on estimating hurricane inundation probabilities (pp. 125). Vicksburg, MS: U.S. Army Engineering Research and Development Center.

The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Florida's Everglades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senarath, S. U.

2005-12-01

Global warming and the resulting melting of polar ice sheets could increase global sea levels significantly. Some studies have predicted mean sea level increases in the order of six inches to one foot in the next 25 to 50 years. This could have severe irreversible impacts on low-lying areas of Florida's Everglades. The key objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of a one foot sea level rise on Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (CSSS) nesting areas within the Everglades National Park (ENP). A regional-scale hydrologic model is used to assess the sensitivities of this sea-level rise scenario. Florida's Everglades supports a unique ecosystem. At present, about 50 percent of this unique ecosystem has been lost due to urbanization and farming. Today, the water flow in the remnant Everglades is also regulated to meet a variety of competing environmental, water-supply and flood-control needs. A 30-year, eight billion dollar (1999 estimate) project has been initiated to improve Everglades' water flows. The expected benefits of this restoration project will be short-lived if the predicted sea level rise causes severe impacts on the environmentally sensitive areas of the Everglades. Florida's Everglades is home to many threatened and endangered species of wildlife. The Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow population in the ENP is one such species that is currently listed as endangered. Since these birds build their nests close to the ground surface (the base of the nest is approximately six inches from the ground surface), they are directly affected by any sea level induced ponding depth, frequency or duration change. Therefore, the CSSS population serves as a good indicator species for evaluating the negative impacts of sea level rise on the Everglades' ecosystem. The impact of sea level rise on the CSSS habitat is evaluated using the Regional Simulation Model (RSM) developed by the South Florida Water Management District. The RSM is an implicit, finite-volume, continuous, distributed, and integrated surface-water and ground-water model. It can simulate one-dimensional canal/stream flow and two-dimensional overland and groundwater flow in arbitrarily shaped areas using a variable triangular mesh. The overland and groundwater flow components are fully coupled in the RSM for a more realistic representation of runoff generation.

Final project memorandum: sea-level rise modeling handbook: resource guide for resource managers, engineers, and scientists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, Thomas W.

2015-01-01

Coastal wetlands of the Southeastern United States are undergoing retreat and migration from increasing tidal inundation and saltwater intrusion attributed to climate variability and sea-level rise. Much of the literature describing potential sea-level rise projections and modeling predictions are found in peer-reviewed academic journals or government technical reports largely suited to reading by other Ph.D. scientists who are more familiar or engaged in the climate change debate. Various sea-level rise and coastal wetland models have been developed and applied of different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting habitat and environmental change that have not heretofore been synthesized to aid natural resource managers of their utility and limitations. Training sessions were conducted with Federal land managers with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, and NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserves as well as state partners and nongovernmental organizations across the northern Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas to educate and to evaluate user needs and understanding of concepts, data, and modeling tools for projecting sea-level rise and its impact on coastal habitats and wildlife. As a result, this handbook was constructed from these training and feedback sessions with coastal managers and biologists of published decision-support tools and simulation models for sea-level rise and climate change assessments. A simplified tabular context was developed listing the various kinds of decision-support tools and ecological models along with criteria to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic data sets, physical and biological constraints and relationships, datum characteristics of water and land elevation components, utility options for setting sea-level rise and climate change scenarios, and ease or difficulty of storing, displaying, or interpreting model output. The handbook is designed to be a primer to understanding sea-level rise and a practical synthesis of the current state of knowledge and modeling tools as a resource guide for DOl land management needs and facilitating Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) research and conservation initiatives.

Sea-level rise modeling handbook: Resource guide for coastal land managers, engineers, and scientists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, Thomas W.; Chivoiu, Bogdan; Enwright, Nicholas M.

2015-08-24

Global sea level is rising and may accelerate with continued fossil fuel consumption from industrial and population growth. In 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted more than 30 training and feedback sessions with Federal, State, and nongovernmental organization (NGO) coastal managers and planners across the northern Gulf of Mexico coast to evaluate user needs, potential benefits, current scientific understanding, and utilization of resource aids and modeling tools focused on sea-level rise. In response to the findings from the sessions, this sea-level rise modeling handbook has been designed as a guide to the science and simulation models for understanding the dynamics and impacts of sea-level rise on coastal ecosystems. The review herein of decision-support tools and predictive models was compiled from the training sessions, from online research, and from publications. The purpose of this guide is to describe and categorize the suite of data, methods, and models and their design, structure, and application for hindcasting and forecasting the potential impacts of sea-level rise in coastal ecosystems. The data and models cover a broad spectrum of disciplines involving different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting environmental change and ecosystem response. These data and models have not heretofore been synthesized, nor have appraisals been made of their utility or limitations. Some models are demonstration tools for non-experts, whereas others require more expert capacity to apply for any given park, refuge, or regional application. A simplified tabular context has been developed to list and contrast a host of decision-support tools and models from the ecological, geological, and hydrological perspectives. Criteria were established to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic datasets; physical and biological constraints and relations; datum characteristics of water and land components; utility options for setting sea-level rise and climate change scenarios; and ease or difficulty of storing, displaying, or interpreting model output. Coastal land managers, engineers, and scientists can benefit from this synthesis of tools and models that have been developed for projecting causes and consequences of sea-level change on the landscape and seascape.

Detection time for global and regional sea level trends and accelerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordà, G.

2014-10-01

Many studies analyze trends on sea level data with the underlying purpose of finding indications of a long-term change that could be interpreted as the signature of anthropogenic climate change. The identification of a long-term trend is a signal-to-noise problem where the natural variability (the "noise") can mask the long-term trend (the "signal"). The signal-to-noise ratio depends on the magnitude of the long-term trend, on the magnitude of the natural variability, and on the length of the record, as the climate noise is larger when averaged over short time scales and becomes smaller over longer averaging periods. In this paper, we evaluate the time required to detect centennial sea level linear trends and accelerations at global and regional scales. Using model results and tide gauge observations, we find that the averaged detection time for a centennial linear trend is 87.9, 76.0, 59.3, 40.3, and 25.2 years for trends of 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, and 10.0 mm/yr, respectively. However, in regions with large decadal variations like the Gulf Stream or the Circumpolar current, these values can increase up to a 50%. The spatial pattern of the detection time for sea level accelerations is almost identical. The main difference is that the length of the records has to be about 40-60 years longer to detect an acceleration than to detect a linear trend leading to an equivalent change after 100 years. Finally, we have used a new sea level reconstruction, which provides a more accurate representation of interannual variability for the last century in order to estimate the detection time for global mean sea level trends and accelerations. Our results suggest that the signature of natural variability in a 30 year global mean sea level record would be less than 1 mm/yr. Therefore, at least 2.2 mm/yr of the recent sea level trend estimated by altimetry cannot be attributed to natural multidecadal variability. This article was corrected on 19 NOV 2014. See the end of the full text for details.

50 CFR 648.90 - NE multispecies assessment, framework procedures and specifications, and flexible area action...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...; survey results; stock status; current estimates of fishing mortality and overfishing levels; social and... survey data or, if sea sampling data are unavailable, length frequency information from trawl surveys... effort, survey results, stock status, current estimates of fishing mortality, and any other relevant...

Steric sea level change in the Bay of Bengal: investigating the most variable component of sea level change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uebbing, Bernd; Kusche, Jürgen; Rietbroek, Roelof; Shum, Ck

2015-04-01

Regional sea level change is influenced by contributions from mass sources, like melting of glaciers and the ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, as well as steric contributions from changes in temperature and salinity of the oceans. Radar altimetry indicates a sea level trend in the Bay of Bengal of about 6 mm- yr over the time period of 2002-2014, which is significantly larger than the global mean trend. Here, we explain 80% of this rise by steric contributions and 20% by mass-related contributions. The increased rise of sea level in the Bay of Bengal threatens the coastal vulnerability of the surrounding countries like Bangladesh, where this effect is exacerbated in combination with land subsidence of the very low lying coastal areas. The BanD-AID (Bangladesh Delta: Assessment of the Causes of Sea-level Rise Hazards and Integrated Development of Predictive Modeling Towards Mitigation and Adaptation) project tries to assess the current and future sea level rise and its impacts on the people living in the threatened coastal areas. As a part of this, it is necessary to analyze the different mass and steric contributors to the total sea level rise to aid in the prediction of future risks. We use data from radar altimetry and the GRACE mission to separate the total sea level rise into contributions from mass sources and steric changes. In our approach, temporal GRACE gravity data and Jason-1 and -2 along track altimetry data are fitted to time invariant spatial patterns (fingerprints) to avoid problems with GRACE resolution, filtering, geocenter and related issues. Our results show that in the Bay of Bengal the steric component is influenced by annual and interannual phenomena and, at the same time, it is significantly larger compared to the individual mass contributions, which show a linear and relatively stable behavior over time. We validate the steric component of our inversion by comparing it to independent steric estimates from 4-D gridded temperature and salinity products from different ARGO processing facilities. We also compare to the classical approach of subtracting the mass component, estimated by GRACE, from the total sea level change, measured by altimetry. Furthermore, we assess the sensitivity of our inversion to the normalized steric fingerprints, which are either based on ARGO fields or derived from ocean modeling. While most steric changes are taking place in the upper 700 m of the ocean, our inversion also allows us to (indirectly) assess the influence from the deep ocean, which is not negligible for the total steric trend.

Coastal Geomorphology, Growth Patterns and Stratigraphy of Uplifted Coral-Reef Terraces of Sumba Island, Indonesia: Towards a Re-Evaluation of Quaternary Sea-Level Highstands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigaud, S.; Leclerc, F.; Abidin, H. Z.; Bijaksana, S.; Chiang, H. W.; Ginting Munthe, F. A.; Liu, X.; Meilano, I.; Pradipta, G. C.; Ramdhani, B. D.; Tapponnier, P.; Wang, X.

2016-12-01

The island of Sumba (Indonesia) is uniquely located within the Sunda-Banda forearc, at the transition between oceanic subduction and arc-continent collision, and has experienced vertical movements for the last 7 Myrs (Fortuin et al., 1997). The spectacular flights of coral-reef terraces exposed on the northern coast have served as benchmarks to reconstruct Quaternary sea-level highstands (stages 5 to 23). Sea-level paleo-elevations were established using reef crests and marine notches as geomorphological markers, assuming a constant uplift rate of 0.49 mm/yr and neglecting erosion and weathering processes (Pirazzoli et al., 1991, 1993). Recent and fossil coral reefs of the northern coast of Sumba Island are fringing, leeward reefs. A new examination of the morphology and stratigraphy of fossil terraces shows that they are primarily built by prograding complexes formed during forced regressions. The current geomorphological expression of reef crests, therefore, does not correspond to the highest position of past sea-levels. The same is true for marine notches, which may only indicate intermediary still-stand phases and are barely distinguishable from weathering surfaces in terraces older than stages 5-7. In our study, we use the elevation of the inner edges of coral terraces as indicators of the highest position of the sea-level during Quaternary highstands. At the island scale, our geomorphological investigations, U/Th dating and high-resolution correlations point to high discrepancies in the deformation patterns, especially at Cape Laundi where the position of past sea-level highstands was established. Through a multi-disciplinary study involving geomorphology, stratigraphy, tectonic, sedimentology, paleontology and geochronology, we offer new estimates for uplift rates at the island scale and re-evaluate the elevation of past sea-level highstands. References : Fortuin et al. 1997. Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 15, p. 61-88. Pirazzoli et al. 1991. Science 252, p. 1834-1836. Pirazzoli et al. 1993. Marine Geology 109, p. 221-236.

Sea level high stand in Marine Isotope Stage 5e: evidence from coral terraces in Sumba Island, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LU, Y.; Rigaud, S.; Leclerc, F.; Liu, X.; Chiang, H. W.; Djamil, Y. S.; Meilano, I.; Bijaksana, S.; Abidin, H. Z.; Tapponnier, P.; Wang, X.

2017-12-01

Uplifted coral reef terraces, possibly spanning the last one million years, are extensively exposed along the northern coast of Sumba Island, Indonesia. We collected a suite of fossil coral samples from the inner edges of terraces at Cape Laundi to study past sea level change, particularly that during the marine isotope stage 5e. These samples were dated by the high-precision U/Th disequilibrium dating methods. For those with δ234U-initial values beyond the range of 145±7‰[1,2] , the open-system model by Thompson et al. [3] was then applied to correct their ages. Only less than 20% of the samples could not derive reasonable ages after the correction, and their abnormally high δ234U-initial values (> 180‰) seem to suggest a limitation of open-system correction with the current model. After the correction of long-term uplift rate of 0.3 mm/kyr, we found that the relative sea level at Cape Laundi, Sumba was 7 m during MIS5e and then dropped to -20 m during the MIS5a and 5c. More importantly, our results indicate that sea level reached a high stand at 129±0.6 ka, supported by both U/Th dates on pristine corals and open-system model corrected ages. In line with the sea level reconstruction from western Australia, our results do not support a second and higher sea level during MIS5e. Moreover, there is no significant lead or lag between the timing of sea level high stand in Sumba and the peak of Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. 1. Robinson et al. (2004) Science. 305: 851-854 2. Cheng et al. (2013) Earth and Planetary Science Letters. 371-372: 82-91 3. Thompson et al. (2003) Earth and Planetary Science Letters. 210: 365-381

Effects of Climate Change on Exposure to Coastal Flooding in Latin America and the Caribbean

PubMed Central

Reguero, Borja G.; Losada, Iñigo J.; Díaz-Simal, Pedro; Méndez, Fernando J.; Beck, Michael W.

2015-01-01

This study considers and compares several of the most important factors contributing to coastal flooding in Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) while accounting for the variations of these factors with location and time. The study assesses the populations, the land areas and the built capital exposed at present and at the middle and end of the 21st century for a set of scenarios that include both climatic and non-climatic drivers. Climatic drivers include global mean sea level, natural modes of climate variability such as El Niño, natural subsidence, and extreme sea levels resulting from the combination of projected local sea-level rise, storm surges and wave setup. Population is the only human-related driver accounted for in the future. Without adaptation, more than 4 million inhabitants will be exposed to flooding from relative sea-level rise by the end of the century, assuming the 8.5 W m−2 trajectory of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), or RCP8.5. However, the contributions from El Niño events substantially raise the threat in several Pacific-coast countries of the region and sooner than previously anticipated. At the tropical Pacific coastlines, the exposure by the mid-century for an event similar to El Niño 1998 would be comparable to that of the RCP4.5 relative sea-level rise by the end of the century. Furthermore, more than 7.5 million inhabitants, 42,600 km2 and built capital valued at 334 billion USD are currently situated at elevations below the 100-year extreme sea level. With sea levels rising and the population increasing, it is estimated that more than 9 million inhabitants will be exposed by the end of the century for either of the RCPs considered. The spatial distribution of exposure and the comparison of scenarios and timeframes can serve as a guide in future adaptation and risk reduction policies in the region. PMID:26177285

Assessment of the impact of sea-level rise due to climate change on coastal groundwater discharge.

PubMed

Masciopinto, Costantino; Liso, Isabella Serena

2016-11-01

An assessment of sea intrusion into coastal aquifers as a consequence of local sea-level rise (LSLR) due to climate change was carried out at Murgia and Salento in southern Italy. The interpolation of sea-level measurements at three tide-gauge stations was performed during the period of 2000 to 2014. The best fit of measurements shows an increasing rate of LSLR ranging from 4.4mm/y to 8.8mm/y, which will result in a maximum LSLR of approximately 2m during the 22nd century. The local rate of sea-level rise matches recent 21st and 22nd century projections of mean global sea-level rise determined by other researchers, which include increased melting rates of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, the effect of ocean thermal expansion, the melting of glaciers and ice caps, and changes in the quantity of stored land water. Subsequently, Ghyben-Herzberg's equation for the freshwater/saltwater interface was rewritten in order to determine the decrease in groundwater discharge due to the maximum LSLR. Groundwater flow simulations and ArcGIS elaborations of digital elevation models of the coast provided input data for the Ghyben-Herzberg calculation under the assumption of head-controlled systems. The progression of seawater intrusion due to LSLR suggests an impressive depletion of available groundwater discharge during the 22nd century, perhaps as much as 16.1% of current groundwater pumping for potable water in Salento. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamic Topography and Sea Level Anomalies of the Southern Ocean: Variability and Teleconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armitage, Thomas W. K.; Kwok, Ron; Thompson, Andrew F.; Cunningham, Glenn

2018-01-01

This study combines sea surface height (SSH) estimates of the ice-covered Southern Ocean with conventional open-ocean SSH estimates from CryoSat-2 to produce monthly composites of dynamic ocean topography (DOT) and sea level anomaly (SLA) on a 50 km grid spanning 2011-2016. This data set reveals the full Southern Ocean SSH seasonal cycle for the first time; there is an antiphase relationship between sea level on the Antarctic continental shelf and the deeper basins, with coastal SSH highest in autumn and lowest in spring. As a result of this pattern of seasonal SSH variability, the barotropic component of the Antarctic Slope Current (ASC) has speeds that are regionally up to twice as fast in the autumn. Month-to-month circulation variability of the Ross and Weddell Gyres is strongly influenced by the local wind field, and is correlated with the local wind curl (Ross: -0.58; Weddell: -0.67). SSH variability is linked to both the Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode, dominant modes of southern hemisphere climate variability. In particular, during the strong 2015-2016 El Niño, a sustained negative coastal SLA of up to -6 cm, implying a weakening of the ASC, was observed in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean. The ability to examine sea level variability in the seasonally ice-covered regions of the Southern Ocean—climatically important regions with an acute sparsity of data—makes this new merged sea level record of particular interest to the Southern Ocean oceanography and glaciology communities.

Assimilating NOAA SST data into BSH operational circulation model for North and Baltic Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Losa, Svetlana; Schroeter, Jens; Nerger, Lars; Janjic, Tijana; Danilov, Sergey; Janssen, Frank

A data assimilation (DA) system is developed for BSH operational circulation model in order to improve forecast of current velocities, sea surface height, temperature and salinity in the North and Baltic Seas. Assimilated data are NOAA sea surface temperature (SST) data for the following period: 01.10.07 -30.09.08. All data assimilation experiments are based on im-plementation of one of the so-called statistical DA methods -Singular Evolutive Interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, -with different ways of prescribing assumed model and data errors statis-tics. Results of the experiments will be shown and compared against each other. Hydrographic data from MARNET stations and sea level at series of tide gauges are used as independent information to validate the data assimilation system. Keywords: Operational Oceanography and forecasting

Increasing extreme water level flood risk as a result of future sea-level rise: A case study on a coastal city in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, A.; Wu, S.

2016-12-01

Extreme water levels, caused by the joint occurrence of storm surges and high tides, always lead to super floods along coastlines. In the context of climate change, this study explored the impact of future sea-level rise on the flood risk of extreme water levels. Using Rongcheng City in Shandong Province, China as a case study, flooded area, expected direct damage losses, and affected population and GDP were assessed for 2050 and 2100 under three greenhouse gas concentration Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Results indicate that, as a result of sea-level rise induced by climate change, the flooded areas of Rongcheng City would increase by 3.23% to 10.64% in 2050 and by as much as 4.98% to 19.87% in 2100, compared with current recurrence periods. Residential land and farmland are at greatest risk of flooding in terms of exposure and losses than other land-use types, and under a high degree RCP 8.5 scenario, expected damage losses would be between 59.84 billion and 86.45 billion in 2050. Results show that the increase in total direct damage losses would reach an average of 60% in 2100 as a result of a 0.82 m sea-level rise. Similarly, affected population and GDP would increase by between 4.95% and 13.87% and between 3.66% and 10.95% in 2050, and by as much as 7.69% to 29.01% and 5.30% to 20.50% in 2100. This study shows that sea-level rise significantly shortens recurrence periods of extreme water levels, makes extreme flood events more frequent, and exacerbates the risk of future flooding. Our results suggest that, if there is no adaptation, sea-level rise will greatly increase the risk of flooding and severely impact human habitability along coastlines.

Late quaternary evolution of the Orinoco Delta, Venezuela

USGS Publications Warehouse

Warne, A.G.; Guevara, E.H.; Aslan, A.

2002-01-01

The modern Orinoco Delta is the latest of a series of stacked deltas that have infilled the Eastern Venezuelan Basin (EVB) since the Oligocene. During the late Pleistocene sea-level lowstand (20,000 to 16,000 yrs BP), bedrock control points at the position of the present delta apex prevented the river channel from incising as deeply as many other major river systems. Shallow seismic data indicate that the late Pleistocene Orinoco incised into the present continental shelf, where it formed a braided-river complex that transported sediment to a series of shelf-edge deltas. As sea level rose from 16,000 to 9,500 yrs BP, the Orinoco shoreline shifted rapidly landward, causing shallow-marine waves and currents to form a widespread transgressive sand unit. Decelerating sea-level rise and a warmer, wetter climate during the early Holocene (9,500 to 6,000 yrs BP) induced delta development within the relatively quiet-water environment of the EVB embayment. Sea level approached its present stand in the middle Holocene (6,000 to 3,000 yrs BP), and the Orinoco coast prograded, broadening the delta plain and infilling the EVB embayment. Significant quantities of Amazon sediment began to be transported to the Orinoco coast by littoral currents. Continued progradation in the late Holocene caused the constriction at Boca de Serpientes to alter nearshore and shelf hydrodynamics and subdivide the submarine delta into two distinct areas: the Atlantic shelf and the Gulf of Paria. The increased influence of littoral currents along the coast promoted mudcape development. Because most of the water and sediment were transported across the delta plain through the Rio Grande distributary in the southern delta, much of the central and northwestern delta plain became sediment starved, promoting widespread accumulation of peat deposits. Human impacts on the delta are mostly associated with the Volca??n Dam on Can??o Manamo. However, human activities have had relatively little effect on the delta processes and environments.

High resolution climate projection of storm surge at the Venetian coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mel, R.; Sterl, A.; Lionello, P.

2013-04-01

Climate change impact on storm surge regime is of great importance for the safety and maintenance of Venice. In this study a future storm surge scenario is evaluated using new high resolution sea level pressure and wind data recently produced by EC-Earth, an Earth System Model based on the operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The study considers an ensemble of six 5 yr long simulations of the rcp45 scenario at 0.25° resolution and compares the 2094-2098 to the 2004-2008 period. EC-Earth sea level pressure and surface wind fields are used as input for a shallow water hydrodynamic model (HYPSE) which computes sea level and barotropic currents in the Adriatic Sea. Results show that a high resolution climate model is needed for producing realistic values of storm surge statistics and confirm previous studies in that they show little sensitivity of storm surge levels to climate change. However, some climate change signals are detected, such as increased persistence of high pressure conditions, an increased frequency of windless hour, and a decreased number of moderate windstorms.

The potential for sea-level-rise-induced barrier island loss: Insights from the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, Laura J.; Patsch, Kiki; List, Jeffrey H.; Williams, S. Jeffress

2014-01-01

As sea level rises and hurricanes become more intense, barrier islands around the world become increasingly vulnerable to conversion from self-sustaining migrating landforms to submerging or subaqueous sand bodies. To explore the mechanism by which such state changes occur and to assess the factors leading to island disintegration, we develop a suite of numerical simulations for the Chandeleur Islands in Louisiana, U.S.A., which appear to be on the verge of this transition. Our results suggest that the Chandeleurs are likely poised to change state, leading to their demise, within decades depending on future storm history. Contributing factors include high rates of relative sea level rise, limited sediment supply, muddy substrate, current island position relative to former Mississippi River distributary channels, and the effects of changes in island morphology on sediment transport pathways. Although deltaic barrier islands are most sensitive to disintegration because of their muddy substrate, the importance of relative sea level rise rate in determining the timing of threshold crossing suggests that the conceptual models for deltaic barrier island formation and disintegration may apply more broadly in the future.

Glacier calving, dynamics, and sea-level rise. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meier, M.F.; Pfeffer, W.T.; Amadei, B.

1998-08-01

The present-day calving flux from Greenland and Antarctica is poorly known, and this accounts for a significant portion of the uncertainty in the current mass balance of these ice sheets. Similarly, the lack of knowledge about the role of calving in glacier dynamics constitutes a major uncertainty in predicting the response of glaciers and ice sheets to changes in climate and thus sea level. Another fundamental problem has to do with incomplete knowledge of glacier areas and volumes, needed for analyses of sea-level change due to changing climate. The authors proposed to develop an improved ability to predict the futuremore » contributions of glaciers to sea level by combining work from four research areas: remote sensing observations of calving activity and iceberg flux, numerical modeling of glacier dynamics, theoretical analysis of the calving process, and numerical techniques for modeling flow with large deformations and fracture. These four areas have never been combined into a single research effort on this subject; in particular, calving dynamics have never before been included explicitly in a model of glacier dynamics. A crucial issue that they proposed to address was the general question of how calving dynamics and glacier flow dynamics interact.« less

Tidal Marshes across a Chesapeake Bay Subestuary Are Not Keeping up with Sea-Level Rise

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beckett, Leah H.; Baldwin, Andrew H.; Kearney, Michael S.

Sea-level rise is a major factor in wetland loss worldwide, and inmuch of Chesapeake Bay (USA) the rate of sea-level rise is higher than the current global rate of 3.2 mmyr -1 due to regional subsidence.Marshes along estuarine salinity gradients differ in vegetation composition, productivity, decomposition pathways, and sediment dynamics, andmay exhibit different responses to sea-level rise. Coastal marshes persist by building vertically at rates at or exceeding regional sea-level rise. In one of the first studies to examine elevation dynamics across an estuarine salinity gradient, we installed 15 surface elevation tables (SET) and accretion marker-horizon plots (MH) in tidalmore » freshwater, oligohaline, and brackish marshes across a Chesapeake Bay subestuary. Over the course of four years, wetlands across the subestuary decreased 1.8 ± 2.7 mmyr -1 in elevation on average, at least 5 mmyr -1 below that needed to keep pace with global sea-level rise. Elevation change rates did not significantly differ among themarshes studied, and ranged from-9.8 ± 6.9 to 4.5 ± 4.3 mmyr -1. Surface accretion of depositedmineral and organic matter was uniformly high across the estuary (~9–15 mmyr -1), indicating that elevation loss was not due to lack of accretionary input. Position in the estuary and associated salinity regime were not related to elevation change or surface matter accretion. In conclusion, previous studies have focused on surface elevation change inmarshes of uniformsalinity (e.g., salt marshes); however, our findings highlight the need for elevation studies inmarshes of all salinity regimes and different geomorphic positions, and warn that brackish, oligohaline, and freshwater tidal wetlands may be at similarly high risk of submergence in some estuaries.« less

Tidal Marshes across a Chesapeake Bay Subestuary Are Not Keeping up with Sea-Level Rise

PubMed Central

Beckett, Leah H.; Baldwin, Andrew H.; Kearney, Michael S.

2016-01-01

Sea-level rise is a major factor in wetland loss worldwide, and in much of Chesapeake Bay (USA) the rate of sea-level rise is higher than the current global rate of 3.2 mm yr-1 due to regional subsidence. Marshes along estuarine salinity gradients differ in vegetation composition, productivity, decomposition pathways, and sediment dynamics, and may exhibit different responses to sea-level rise. Coastal marshes persist by building vertically at rates at or exceeding regional sea-level rise. In one of the first studies to examine elevation dynamics across an estuarine salinity gradient, we installed 15 surface elevation tables (SET) and accretion marker-horizon plots (MH) in tidal freshwater, oligohaline, and brackish marshes across a Chesapeake Bay subestuary. Over the course of four years, wetlands across the subestuary decreased 1.8 ± 2.7 mm yr-1 in elevation on average, at least 5 mm yr-1 below that needed to keep pace with global sea-level rise. Elevation change rates did not significantly differ among the marshes studied, and ranged from -9.8 ± 6.9 to 4.5 ± 4.3 mm yr-1. Surface accretion of deposited mineral and organic matter was uniformly high across the estuary (~9–15 mm yr-1), indicating that elevation loss was not due to lack of accretionary input. Position in the estuary and associated salinity regime were not related to elevation change or surface matter accretion. Previous studies have focused on surface elevation change in marshes of uniform salinity (e.g., salt marshes); however, our findings highlight the need for elevation studies in marshes of all salinity regimes and different geomorphic positions, and warn that brackish, oligohaline, and freshwater tidal wetlands may be at similarly high risk of submergence in some estuaries. PMID:27467784

Tidal Marshes across a Chesapeake Bay Subestuary Are Not Keeping up with Sea-Level Rise

DOE PAGES

Beckett, Leah H.; Baldwin, Andrew H.; Kearney, Michael S.; ...

2016-07-28

Sea-level rise is a major factor in wetland loss worldwide, and inmuch of Chesapeake Bay (USA) the rate of sea-level rise is higher than the current global rate of 3.2 mmyr -1 due to regional subsidence.Marshes along estuarine salinity gradients differ in vegetation composition, productivity, decomposition pathways, and sediment dynamics, andmay exhibit different responses to sea-level rise. Coastal marshes persist by building vertically at rates at or exceeding regional sea-level rise. In one of the first studies to examine elevation dynamics across an estuarine salinity gradient, we installed 15 surface elevation tables (SET) and accretion marker-horizon plots (MH) in tidalmore » freshwater, oligohaline, and brackish marshes across a Chesapeake Bay subestuary. Over the course of four years, wetlands across the subestuary decreased 1.8 ± 2.7 mmyr -1 in elevation on average, at least 5 mmyr -1 below that needed to keep pace with global sea-level rise. Elevation change rates did not significantly differ among themarshes studied, and ranged from-9.8 ± 6.9 to 4.5 ± 4.3 mmyr -1. Surface accretion of depositedmineral and organic matter was uniformly high across the estuary (~9–15 mmyr -1), indicating that elevation loss was not due to lack of accretionary input. Position in the estuary and associated salinity regime were not related to elevation change or surface matter accretion. In conclusion, previous studies have focused on surface elevation change inmarshes of uniformsalinity (e.g., salt marshes); however, our findings highlight the need for elevation studies inmarshes of all salinity regimes and different geomorphic positions, and warn that brackish, oligohaline, and freshwater tidal wetlands may be at similarly high risk of submergence in some estuaries.« less

Vulnerability of the Nile Delta coastal areas to inundation by sea level rise.

PubMed

Hassaan, M A; Abdrabo, M A

2013-08-01

Sea level changes are typically caused by several natural phenomena, including ocean thermal expansion, glacial melt from Greenland and Antarctica. Global average sea level is expected to rise, through the twenty-first century, according to the IPCC projections by between 0.18 and 0.59 cm. Such a rise in sea level will significantly impact coastal area of the Nile Delta, consisting generally of lowland and is densely populated areas and accommodates significant proportion of Egypt's economic activities and built-up areas. The Nile Delta has been examined in several previous studies, which worked under various hypothetical sea level rise (SLR) scenarios and provided different estimates of areas susceptible to inundation due to SLR. The paper intends, in this respect, to identify areas, as well as land use/land cover, susceptible to inundation by SLR based upon most recent scenarios of SLR, by the year 2100 using GIS. The results indicate that about 22.49, 42.18, and 49.22 % of the total area of coastal governorates of the Nile Delta would be susceptible to inundation under different scenarios of SLR. Also, it was found that 15.56 % of the total areas of the Nile Delta that would be vulnerable to inundation due to land subsidence only, even in the absence of any rise in sea level. Moreover, it was found that a considerable proportion of these areas (ranging between 32.32 and 53.66 %) are currently either wetland or undeveloped areas. Furthermore, natural and/or man-made structures, such as the banks of the International Coastal Highway, were found to provide unintended protection to some of these areas. This suggests that the inundation impact of SLR on the Nile Delta is less than previously reported.

Numerical modeling of the impact of sea-level rise on fringing coral reef hydrodynamics and sediment transport

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storlazzi, C.D.; Elias, E.; Field, M.E.; Presto, M.K.

2011-01-01

Most climate projections suggest that sea level may rise on the order of 0.5-1.0 m by 2100; it is not clear, however, how fluid flow and sediment dynamics on exposed fringing reefs might change in response to this rapid sea-level rise. Coupled hydrodynamic and sediment-transport numerical modeling is consistent with recent published results that suggest that an increase in water depth on the order of 0.5-1.0 m on a 1-2 m deep exposed fringing reef flat would result in larger significant wave heights and setup, further elevating water depths on the reef flat. Larger waves would generate higher near-bed shear stresses, which, in turn, would result in an increase in both the size and the quantity of sediment that can be resuspended from the seabed or eroded from adjacent coastal plain deposits. Greater wave- and wind-driven currents would develop with increasing water depth, increasing the alongshore and offshore flux of water and sediment from the inner reef flat to the outer reef flat and fore reef where coral growth is typically greatest. Sediment residence time on the fringing reef flat was modeled to decrease exponentially with increasing sea-level rise as the magnitude of sea-level rise approached the mean water depth over the reef flat. The model results presented here suggest that a 0.5-1.0 m rise in sea level will likely increase coastal erosion, mixing and circulation, the amount of sediment resuspended, and the duration of high turbidity on exposed reef flats, resulting in decreased light availability for photosynthesis, increased sediment-induced stress on the reef ecosystem, and potentially affecting a number of other ecological processes.

Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise.

PubMed

Hay, Carling C; Morrow, Eric; Kopp, Robert E; Mitrovica, Jerry X

2015-01-22

Estimating and accounting for twentieth-century global mean sea level (GMSL) rise is critical to characterizing current and future human-induced sea-level change. Several previous analyses of tide gauge records--employing different methods to accommodate the spatial sparsity and temporal incompleteness of the data and to constrain the geometry of long-term sea-level change--have concluded that GMSL rose over the twentieth century at a mean rate of 1.6 to 1.9 millimetres per year. Efforts to account for this rate by summing estimates of individual contributions from glacier and ice-sheet mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and changes in land water storage fall significantly short in the period before 1990. The failure to close the budget of GMSL during this period has led to suggestions that several contributions may have been systematically underestimated. However, the extent to which the limitations of tide gauge analyses have affected estimates of the GMSL rate of change is unclear. Here we revisit estimates of twentieth-century GMSL rise using probabilistic techniques and find a rate of GMSL rise from 1901 to 1990 of 1.2 ± 0.2 millimetres per year (90% confidence interval). Based on individual contributions tabulated in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this estimate closes the twentieth-century sea-level budget. Our analysis, which combines tide gauge records with physics-based and model-derived geometries of the various contributing signals, also indicates that GMSL rose at a rate of 3.0 ± 0.7 millimetres per year between 1993 and 2010, consistent with prior estimates from tide gauge records.The increase in rate relative to the 1901-90 trend is accordingly larger than previously thought; this revision may affect some projections of future sea-level rise.

Integrating thematic web portal capabilities into the NASA Earthdata Web Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, M. M.; McLaughlin, B. D.; Huang, T.; Baynes, K.

2015-12-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) acquires and distributes an abundance of Earth science data on a daily basis to a diverse user community worldwide. To assist the scientific community and general public in achieving a greater understanding of the interdisciplinary nature of Earth science and of key environmental and climate change topics, the NASA Earthdata web infrastructure is integrating new methods of presenting and providing access to Earth science information, data, research and results. This poster will present the process of integrating thematic web portal capabilities into the NASA Earthdata web infrastructure, with examples from the Sea Level Change Portal. The Sea Level Change Portal will be a source of current NASA research, data and information regarding sea level change. The portal will provide sea level change information through articles, graphics, videos and animations, an interactive tool to view and access sea level change data and a dashboard showing sea level change indicators. Earthdata is a part of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) project. EOSDIS is a key core capability in NASA's Earth Science Data Systems Program. It provides end-to-end capabilities for managing NASA's Earth science data from various sources - satellites, aircraft, field measurements, and various other programs. It is comprised of twelve Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs), Science Computing Facilities (SCFs), data discovery and service access client (Reverb and Earthdata Search), dataset directory (Global Change Master Directory - GCMD), near real-time data (Land Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS - LANCE), Worldview (an imagery visualization interface), Global Imagery Browse Services, the Earthdata Code Collaborative and a host of other discipline specific data discovery, data access, data subsetting and visualization tools.

(abstract) Altimeter Calibration and Geophysical Monitoring from Collocated Measurements at the Harvest Oil Platform

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haines, B. J.; Christensen, E. J.; Norman, R. A.; Parke, M. E.; Born, G. H.; Gill, S. K.

1996-01-01

Prior to the launch of TOPEX/ Poseidon in August 1992, NASA established its primary in situ verification site on the Harvest oil platform located in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of central California. Data from a suite of geodetic and oceanographic instruments attached to the platform have been combined to yield a precise record of absolute sea level simce the beginning of the mission. Critical to the computation of this geocentric sea level record is the precise determination of the platform geodetic height and the vertical velocity in the global terrestrial reference frame.We compare estimates of the platform height and vertical velocity from global positioning system (GPS) data alone and from a combination of GPS and satellite laser ranging (SLR) information. Current estimates suggest the platform is subsiding at a rate of about 8 mm per year. This height information is combined with in situ tide gauge measurements of sea level relative to a platform reference mark in order to produce a continuous record of the local geocentric sea height.

Conference on Continental margin mass wasting and Pleistocene sea-level changes, August 13-15, 1980

USGS Publications Warehouse

Folger, David W.; Hathaway, J.C.

1987-01-01

A conference on Continental Margin Mass Wasting and Pleistocene Sea-Level Changes was held in Woods Hole, Mass., August 13-15, 1980. Forty-seven participants, representing many government, academic, and industrial organizations, discussed the current state of knowledge of the features of marine mass wasting and of the interrelations of factors influencing them. These factors include sediment source, composition, textures, sedimentation rates, climatic and sea-level changes, gas and gas hydrate (clathrate) contents of sediments, geotechnical characteristics, oceanographic and morphological factors, ground-water processes, and seismic events. The part played by these factors in the processes and features of mass movement and the engineering considerations imposed by the emplacement of manmade structures on the sea floor were considered vital to the evaluation of hazards involved in offshore exploration and development. The conference concluded with a call for bold programs to establish the probability of occurrence and the quantitative importance of these factors and to devise more reliable means of measurement, particularly in place, of the characteristics of the sediment and features involved.

Parallel Computation of Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave Coupled Storm Surge Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, K.; Yamashita, T.

2003-12-01

Ocean-atmosphere interactions are very important in the formation and development of tropical storms. These interactions are dominant in exchanging heat, momentum, and moisture fluxes. Heat flux is usually computed using a bulk equation. In this equation air-sea interface supplies heat energy to the atmosphere and to the storm. Dynamical interaction is most often one way in which it is the atmosphere that drives the ocean. The winds transfer momentum to both ocean surface waves and ocean current. The wind wave makes an important role in the exchange of the quantities of motion, heat and a substance between the atmosphere and the ocean. Storm surges can be considered as the phenomena of mean sea-level changes, which are the result of the frictional stresses of strong winds blowing toward the land and causing the set level and the low atmospheric pressure at the centre of the cyclone can additionally raise the sea level. In addition to the rise in water level itself, another wave factor must be considered. A rise of mean sea level due to white-cap wave dissipation should be considered. In bounded bodies of water, such as small seas, wind driven sea level set up is much serious than inverted barometer effects, in which the effects of wind waves on wind-driven current play an important role. It is necessary to develop the coupled system of the full spectral third-generation wind-wave model (WAM or WAVEWATCH III), the meso-scale atmosphere model (MM5) and the coastal ocean model (POM) for simulating these physical interactions. As the component of coupled system is so heavy for personal usage, the parallel computing system should be developed. In this study, first, we developed the coupling system of the atmosphere model, ocean wave model and the coastal ocean model, in the Beowulf System, for the simulation of the storm surge. It was applied to the storm surge simulation caused by Typhoon Bart (T9918) in the Yatsushiro Sea. The atmosphere model and the ocean model have been made the parallel codes by SPMD methods. The wave-current interface model was developed by defining the wave breaking stresses. And we developed the coupling program to collect and distribute the exchanging data with the parallel system. Every models and coupler are executed at same time, and they calculate own jobs and pass data with organic system. MPMD method programming was performed to couple the models. The coupler and each models united by the separated group, and they calculated by the group unit. Also they passed message when exchanging data by global unit. The data are exchanged every 60-second model time that is the least common multiple time of the atmosphere model, the wave model and the ocean model. The model was applied to the storm surge simulation in the Yatsushiro Sea, in which we could not simulated the observed maximum surge height with the numerical model that did not include the wave breaking stress. It is confirmed that the simulation which includes the wave breaking stress effects can produce the observed maximum height, 450 cm, at Matsuai.

The Characteristics of Marine Environment around the Ieodo in Aug. 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, E.; KIM, S. H.; KIM, E.; KIM, B. N.; CHOI, B. K.

2017-12-01

The sea area around Ieodo is analyzed from the CTD data and the S-ADCP data observed in 23 Aug. 2016. Ieodo, an underwater reef, is located 149 km southwest of Marado in Republic of Korea. It has 4 peaks and is about 4.6 meter below sea level. It stretches about 600m north to south and 750m east to west from its top. It has the same geographical characteristics as the seamount. In the sea area around Ieodo, the northward flow appeared during the ebb tide, the southward flow appeared during the flood tide. The strong stratification formed in summer seems to change the depth depending on the sea water current. The thermocline depth becomes deeper at the north of the Ieodo when the northward current flows and the upwelling flow occurs. And the thermocline depth becomes shallower at the south when the southward current flows and the downwelling flow occurs. In this way, the upwelling and downwelling seems to be according to the tide's direction. Acknowledgements This research was a part of the projects entitled "Construction of Ocean Research Stations and their application Studies, Phase 2", funded by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, Korea.

Observations of Near-Bottom Currents with Low-Cost SeaHorse Tilt Current Meters

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-30

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Observations of Near-Bottom Currents with Low-Cost SeaHorse Tilt...sheremet/ SeaHorse LONG-TERM GOALS The SeaHorse TCM is a low-cost, easy to use, robust current meter based on the drag principle. Use of a large...2010 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2010 to 00-00-2010 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Observations of Near-Bottom Currents with Low-Cost SeaHorse

C-5 Reliability Enhancement and Re-engining Program (C-5 RERP)

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

Production Estimate Current APB Production Objective/Threshold Demonstrated Performance Current Estimate Time To Climb/Initial Level Off 837,000 lbs...RCR - Runway Condition Reading SDD - System Design and Development SL - Sea Level C-5 RERP December 2015 SAR March 23, 2016 16:10:28 UNCLASSIFIED 12...5.3 5.3 Acq O&M 0.0 0.0 -- 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 7146.6 7135.7 N/A 6698.0 7694.1 7510.7 7066.6 Confidence Level Confidence Level of cost estimate

Wet trend continues for lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katzoff, Judith A.

About 20% of the United States, including the regions of the Great Lakes and the Great Salt Lake, has entered a fourth year of record and near-record streamflow and lake levels, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). From June 3 until June 8, 1986, the Great Salt Lake stood at 1283.77 m above sea level, 0.076 m above the previous record, which was set in 1873. (Records have been kept for the lake since 1847.) On June 8, a dike south of the lake gave way during a windstorm, causing flooding of evaporation ponds used for mineral recovery.As a result of the breach, the lake's level dropped to 1283.65 m above sea level by June 10 but rose to 1283.68 m by June 20. The latest official reading, made on June 30, showed that the lake's level had dropped to 1283.63 m above sea level. According to Tom Ross, chief of the Current Water Conditions Group at the USGS National Center in Reston, Va., this drop represents “a normal seasonal decline brought on by evaporation.”

Cesium-137 concentrations in marine macroalgae from different biotopes in the Aegean Sea (Greece).

PubMed

Sawidis, Thomas; Heinrich, Gerorg; Brown, Murray-T

2003-03-01

The commonest species of red, brown, and green macroalgae were sampled from a range of biotopes in the Aegean Sea during 1998 for their 137Cs content. Significant differences in 137Cs concentrations were found among different species growing under similar environmental conditions, suggesting that uptake does not follow physical levels but is influenced by allometric parameters and physiological mechanisms. 137Cs content in collected seaweeds were in the descending order: Ulva lactuca>Enteromorpha linza>Gracilaria verrucosa>Ceramium rubrum>Cystoseira barbata. A comparison of the stations studied indicated that the degree of accumulation is also dependent on the geomorphology of the specific area. The west side of Thermaikos Gulf, where the rivers Axios, Aliakmon, and Pinios flow, was highly contaminated as was the Strymonicos Gulf where the river Strymon flows. High cesium concentrations were also observed in algae from Lemnos Island near the mouth of the Dardanelles Channel, most likely due to the horizontal circulation of water masses from the Marmaras Sea to the Aegean Sea resulting in the discharge of 137Cs during the purification process in the Black Sea through the Dardanelles Straits. It is concluded that the general dispersion of 137Cs results from the water circulation regime within the Aegean Sea. Higher levels are present in the northern part of the basin due to current circulation originating from the Black Sea and from outflow of rivers. Levels decrease to the south and east, but increase again to the west of Crete where the Black Sea water mass can be periodically traced.

Hydrogeology and trichloroethene contamination in the sea-level aquifer beneath the Logistics Center, Fort Lewis, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinicola, Richard S.

2005-01-01

The U.S. Army disposed of waste trichloroethene (TCE) and other materials in the East Gate Disposal Yard near the Logistics Center on Fort Lewis, Washington, from the 1940s to the early 1970s. As a result, ground water contaminated with primarily TCE extends more than 3 miles downgradient from the East Gate Disposal Yard. The site is underlain by a complex and heterogeneous sequence of glacial and non-glacial deposits that have been broadly categorized into an upper and a lower aquifer (the latter referred to as the sea-level aquifer). TCE contamination was detected in both aquifers. This report describes an investigation by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) of the source, migration, and attenuation of TCE in the sea-level aquifer. A refined conceptual model for ground-water flow and contaminant migration into and through the sea-level aquifer was developed in large part from interpretation of environmental tracer data. The tracers used included stable isotopes of oxygen (18O), hydrogen (2H), and carbon (13C); the radioactive hydrogen isotope tritium (3H); common ions and redox-related analytes; chlorofluorocarbons; and sulfur hexafluoride. Tracer and TCE concentrations were determined for samples collected by the USGS from 37 wells and two surface-water sites in American Lake during 1999-2000. Ground-water levels were measured by the USGS in more than 40 wells during 2000-01, and were combined with measurements by the U.S. Army and others to create potentiometric-surface maps. Localized ground-water flow features were identified that are of particular relevance to the migration of TCE in the study area. A ridge of ground water beneath American Lake diverts the flow of TCE-contaminated ground water in the sea-level aquifer to the west around the southern end of the lake. Tracer data provided clear evidence that American Lake is a significant source of recharge to the sea-level aquifer that has created that ridge of ground water. High ground-water altitudes at locations north and northeast of the Logistics Center combined with the ridge beneath American Lake prevent TCE contaminated water beneath the Logistics Center from migrating toward municipal water-supply wells northeast of the site. The 1999-2000 TCE concentrations measured by the USGS at older wells screened in the sea-level aquifer were similar to those measured since 1995, but the known downgradient extent of the TCE contamination expanded nearly 2 miles after the Army installed and sampled new wells during 2003-04. Concentrations of TCE in the sea-level aquifer were consistently highest in the upper part of the aquifer throughout the plume, although TCE has spread throughout much of the thickness of the aquifer in the downgradient portions of the plume. Environmental tracer data indicated that the primary pathway for contaminant migration into the sea-level aquifer is through the previously identified confining unit window, an area where the predominately fine-grained confining unit is relatively coarse grained and more permeable. Other less substantial pathways for contaminant migration also were identified near the East Gate Disposal Yard and the I-5 pump-and-treat facilities. Those areas are near active pumping wells and ground-water reintroduction facilities, but there is no evidence that the contaminant migration was caused or enhanced by those activities. Within the sea-level aquifer, TCE concentrations continue to migrate westward in the flow field strongly influenced by ground-water recharge from American Lake. Historical data are not available to definitively determine if the 5-?g/L leading edge of the current TCE plume is stable or if it is still moving downgradient. However, an evaluation of the available data combined with TCE traveltime estimates indicates that the peak TCE concentrations in the sea-level aquifer may have not yet reached the wells near the currently defined leading edge of the plume. Hypothetically, the 5-?g/L leading edge

Uprated OMS Engine Status-Sea Level Testing Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bertolino, J. D.; Boyd, W. C.

1990-01-01

The current Space Shuttle Orbital Maneuvering Engine (OME) is pressure fed, utilizing storable propellants. Performance uprating of this engine, through the use of a gas generator driven turbopump to increase operating pressure, is being pursued by the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC). Component level design, fabrication, and test activities for this engine system have been on-going since 1984. More recently, a complete engine designated the Integrated Component Test Bed (ICTB), was tested at sea level conditions by Aerojet. A description of the test hardware and results of the sea level test program are presented. These results, which include the test condition operating envelope and projected performance at altitude conditions, confirm the capability of the selected Uprated OME (UOME) configuration to meet or exceed performance and operational requirements. Engine flexibility, demonstrated through testing at two different operational mixture ratios, along with a summary of projected Space Shuttle performance enhancements using the UOME, are discussed. Planned future activities, including ICTB tests at simulated altitude conditions, and recommendations for further engine development, are also discussed.

Temporal and spatial variations of 134Cs and 137Cs levels in the Sea of Japan and Pacific coastal region: Implications for dispersion of FDNPP-derived radiocesium.

PubMed

Inoue, M; Shirotani, Y; Yamashita, S; Takata, H; Kofuji, H; Ambe, D; Honda, N; Yagi, Y; Nagao, S

2018-02-01

To investigate the dispersion of Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP)-derived radiocesium in the Sea of Japan and western Pacific coastal region and determine the sources of radiocesium in these areas, we examined the temporal and spatial variations of 134 Cs and 137 Cs concentrations (activities) during 2011-2016 in seawaters around the western Japanese Archipelago, particularly in the Sea of Japan. In May 2013, the surface concentration of 134 Cs was ∼0.5 mBq/L (decay-corrected to March 11, 2011), and that of 137 Cs exceeded the pre-accident level in this study area, where the effects of radiocesium depositions just after the FDNPP accident disappeared in surface waters in October 2011. Subsequently, radiocesium concentrations gradually increased during 2013-2016 (∼0.5-1 mBq/L for 134 Cs), exhibiting approximately homogeneous distributions in each year. The temporal and spatial variations of 134 Cs and 137 Cs concentrations indicated that FDNPP-derived radiocesium around the western Japanese Archipelago, including the Sea of Japan, has been supported by the Kuroshio Current and its branch, Tsushima Warm Current, during 2013-2016. However, in the Sea of Japan, the penetration of 134 Cs was limited to depths of less than ∼200 m during three years following the re-delivery of FDNPP-derived radiocesium. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic Diversity and Population Parameters of Sea Otters, Enhydra lutris, before Fur Trade Extirpation from 1741–1911

PubMed Central

Larson, Shawn; Jameson, Ron; Etnier, Michael; Jones, Terry; Hall, Roberta

2012-01-01

All existing sea otter, Enhydra lutris, populations have suffered at least one historic population bottleneck stemming from the fur trade extirpations of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. We examined genetic variation, gene flow, and population structure at five microsatellite loci in samples from five pre-fur trade populations throughout the sea otter's historical range: California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska, and Russia. We then compared those values to genetic diversity and population structure found within five modern sea otter populations throughout their current range: California, Prince William Sound, Amchitka Island, Southeast Alaska and Washington. We found twice the genetic diversity in the pre-fur trade populations when compared to modern sea otters, a level of diversity that was similar to levels that are found in other mammal populations that have not experienced population bottlenecks. Even with the significant loss in genetic diversity modern sea otters have retained historical structure. There was greater gene flow before extirpation than that found among modern sea otter populations but the difference was not statistically significant. The most dramatic effect of pre fur trade population extirpation was the loss of genetic diversity. For long term conservation of these populations increasing gene flow and the maintenance of remnant genetic diversity should be encouraged. PMID:22403635

Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet after local destabilization of the Amundsen Basin

PubMed Central

Feldmann, Johannes; Levermann, Anders

2015-01-01

The future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest uncertainty in sea-level projections of this and upcoming centuries. Recently, satellite observations and high-resolution simulations have suggested the initiation of an ice-sheet instability in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica, caused by the last decades’ enhanced basal ice-shelf melting. Whether this localized destabilization will yield a full discharge of marine ice from West Antarctica, associated with a global sea-level rise of more than 3 m, or whether the ice loss is limited by ice dynamics and topographic features, is unclear. Here we show that in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model, a local destabilization causes a complete disintegration of the marine ice in West Antarctica. In our simulations, at 5-km horizontal resolution, the region disequilibrates after 60 y of currently observed melt rates. Thereafter, the marine ice-sheet instability fully unfolds and is not halted by topographic features. In fact, the ice loss in Amundsen Sea sector shifts the catchment's ice divide toward the Filchner–Ronne and Ross ice shelves, which initiates grounding-line retreat there. Our simulations suggest that if a destabilization of Amundsen Sea sector has indeed been initiated, Antarctica will irrevocably contribute at least 3 m to global sea-level rise during the coming centuries to millennia. PMID:26578762

DEEP WATER ISOTOPIC CURRENT ANALYZER

DOEpatents

Johnston, W.H.

1964-04-21

A deepwater isotopic current analyzer, which employs radioactive isotopes for measurement of ocean currents at various levels beneath the sea, is described. The apparatus, which can determine the direction and velocity of liquid currents, comprises a shaft having a plurality of radiation detectors extending equidistant radially therefrom, means for releasing radioactive isotopes from the shaft, and means for determining the time required for the isotope to reach a particular detector. (AEC)

Climate of the past 2000 years in IPCC AR5 (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masson-Delmotte, V.

2013-12-01

Different aspects of the climate of the past 2000 years are covered in several chapters of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, including information from paleoclimate archives, changes in the carbon and biogeochemical cycles, changes in sea level, climate model evaluation and detection and attribution. This presentation will summarize the main findings regarding pre-industrial changes in radiative forcings, reconstructed and simulated temperature variations at the hemispheric and regional scales, as well as global sea level for the past 2000 years, in the perspective of the current and earlier interglacial periods.

Distribution and air-sea exchange of current-use pesticides (CUPs) from East Asia to the high Arctic Ocean.

PubMed

Zhong, Guangcai; Xie, Zhiyong; Cai, Minghong; Möller, Axel; Sturm, Renate; Tang, Jianhui; Zhang, Gan; He, Jianfeng; Ebinghaus, Ralf

2012-01-03

Surface seawater and marine boundary layer air samples were collected on the ice-breaker R/V Xuelong (Snow Dragon) from the East China Sea to the high Arctic (33.23-84.5° N) in July to September 2010 and have been analyzed for six current-use pesticides (CUPs): trifluralin, endosulfan, chlorothalonil, chlorpyrifos, dacthal, and dicofol. In all oceanic air samples, the six CUPs were detected, showing highest level (>100 pg/m(3)) in the Sea of Japan. Gaseous CUPs basically decreased from East Asia (between 36.6 and 45.1° N) toward Bering and Chukchi Seas. The dissolved CUPs in ocean water ranged widely from

Key parameters of the sediment surface morphodynamics in an estuary - An assessment of model solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampath, D. M. R.; Boski, T.

2018-05-01

Large-scale geomorphological evolution of an estuarine system was simulated by means of a hybrid estuarine sedimentation model (HESM) applied to the Guadiana Estuary, in Southwest Iberia. The model simulates the decadal-scale morphodynamics of the system under environmental forcing, using a set of analytical solutions to simplified equations of tidal wave propagation in shallow waters, constrained by empirical knowledge of estuarine sedimentary dynamics and topography. The key controlling parameters of the model are bed friction (f), current velocity power of the erosion rate function (N), and sea-level rise rate. An assessment of sensitivity of the simulated sediment surface elevation (SSE) change to these controlling parameters was performed. The model predicted the spatial differentiation of accretion and erosion, the latter especially marked in the mudflats within mean sea level and low tide level and accretion was mainly in a subtidal channel. The average SSE change mutually depended on both the friction coefficient and power of the current velocity. Analysis of the average annual SSE change suggests that the state of intertidal and subtidal compartments of the estuarine system vary differently according to the dominant processes (erosion and accretion). As the Guadiana estuarine system shows dominant erosional behaviour in the context of sea-level rise and sediment supply reduction after the closure of the Alqueva Dam, the most plausible sets of parameter values for the Guadiana Estuary are N = 1.8 and f = 0.8f0, or N = 2 and f = f0, where f0 is the empirically estimated value. For these sets of parameter values, the relative errors in SSE change did not exceed ±20% in 73% of simulation cells in the studied area. Such a limit of accuracy can be acceptable for an idealized modelling of coastal evolution in response to uncertain sea-level rise scenarios in the context of reduced sediment supply due to flow regulation. Therefore, the idealized but cost-effective HESM model will be suitable for estimating the morphological impacts of sea-level rise on estuarine systems on a decadal timescale.

Physical oceanography from satellites: Currents and the slope of the sea surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sturges, W.

1974-01-01

A global scheme using satellite altimetry in conjunction with thermometry techniques provides for more accurate determinations of first order leveling networks by overcoming discrepancies between ocean leveling and land leveling methods. The high noise content in altimetry signals requires filtering or correction for tides, etc., as well as carefully planned sampling schemes.

Survey of patterns, levels, and trends of perfluorinated compounds in aquatic organisms and bird eggs from representative German ecosystems.

PubMed

Rüdel, Heinz; Müller, Josef; Jürling, Heinrich; Bartel-Steinbach, Martina; Koschorreck, Jan

2011-11-01

Samples from the German Environmental Specimen Bank (ESB) covering particularly the years 1994-1996, 2000-2002, and 2006-2009 were analyzed for perfluorinated compounds (PFC; mainly C4-C13 carboxylic and sulfonic acids) to gain an overview on current PFC levels and patterns in marine, limnetic, and terrestrial biota; to assess their concentrations in different trophic levels; and to investigate whether risk management measures for PFC are successful. Specimens, either standardized annual pooled samples (blue mussels, eelpout liver, bream liver, pigeon eggs) or individual single samples (cormorant eggs, rook eggs), were collected for the German ESB program from representative sampling sites according to documented guidelines. After appropriate extraction, PFC were quantified under ISO/IEC 17025 accreditation by HPLC/MS-MS with isotopically labeled internal standards. Limits of quantification (LOQs) were 0.2-0.5 ng/g. Data are reported on a wet weight basis. In most samples the predominant PFC was perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS). However, in marine mussels from North and Baltic Seas, PFOS levels were mostly below the LOQ, but low residues of PFOS amide were found which declined in recent years. Livers of eelpout showed maximum concentrations of 15-25 ng/g PFOS in the period 2000-2002 and low amounts of perfluoropentanoate in all years. Beside PFOS (median 48 ng/g) several PFC could be determined in cormorant eggs sampled in 2009 from a Baltic Sea site. For a freshwater ecosystem, current PFC burdens for cormorant eggs were even higher (median 400 ng/g PFOS). Livers of bream from rivers showed concentrations of 130-260 ng/g PFOS, but for bream from a reference lake levels were only about 6 ng/g. In contrast to cormorants, eggs of rook and feral pigeon from terrestrial ecosystems displayed only low PFC burdens (up to 6 ng/g PFOS). Generally, PFC levels were lower in marine than in freshwater biota. PFC burdens were higher in biota from the ESB-North Sea sites than in Baltic Sea organisms. Levels of PFC were quite high especially in top predators of both limnetic and marine ecosystems. Only low PFC levels were detected in eggs of terrestrial birds. A decrease of PFOS levels from maximum values around the year 2000 observed at least in North Sea biota may be a result of a production cease and shifts in marketing pattern.

Sea Level Station Metadata for Tsunami Detection, Warning and Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroker, K. J.; Marra, J.; Kari, U. S.; Weinstein, S. A.; Kong, L.

2007-12-01

The devastating earthquake and tsunami of December 26, 2004 has greatly increased recognition of the need for water level data both from the coasts and the deep-ocean. In 2006, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) completed a Tsunami Data Management Report describing the management of data required to minimize the impact of tsunamis in the United States. One of the major gaps defined in this report is the access to global coastal water level data. NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) are working cooperatively to bridge this gap. NOAA relies on a network of global data, acquired and processed in real-time to support tsunami detection and warning, as well as high-quality global databases of archived data to support research and advanced scientific modeling. In 2005, parties interested in enhancing the access and use of sea level station data united under the NOAA NCDC's Integrated Data and Environmental Applications (IDEA) Center's Pacific Region Integrated Data Enterprise (PRIDE) program to develop a distributed metadata system describing sea level stations (Kari et. al., 2006; Marra et.al., in press). This effort started with pilot activities in a regional framework and is targeted at tsunami detection and warning systems being developed by various agencies. It includes development of the components of a prototype sea level station metadata web service and accompanying Google Earth-based client application, which use an XML-based schema to expose, at a minimum, information in the NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) station database needed to use the PTWC's Tide Tool application. As identified in the Tsunami Data Management Report, the need also exists for long-term retention of the sea level station data. NOAA envisions that the retrospective water level data and metadata will also be available through web services, using an XML-based schema. Five high-priority metadata requirements identified at a water level workshop held at the XXIV IUGG Meeting in Perugia will be addressed: consistent, validated, and well defined numbers (e.g. amplitude); exact location of sea level stations; a complete record of sea level data stored in the archive; identifying high-priority sea level stations; and consistent definitions. NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and co-located World Data Center for Solid Earth Geophysics (including tsunamis) would hold the archive of the sea level station data and distribute the standard metadata. Currently, NGDC is also archiving and distributing the DART buoy deep-ocean water level data and metadata in standards based formats. Kari, Uday S., John J. Marra, Stuart A. Weinstein, 2006 A Tsunami Focused Data Sharing Framework For Integration of Databases that Describe Water Level Station Specifications. AGU Fall Meeting, 2006. San Francisco, California. Marra, John, J., Uday S. Kari, and Stuart A. Weinstein (in press). A Tsunami Detection and Warning-focused Sea Level Station Metadata Web Service. IUGG XXIV, July 2-13, 2007. Perugia, Italy.

Extreme sea level implications of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C temperature stabilization targets in the 21st and 22nd centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, D. J.; Bittermann, Klaus; Buchanan, Maya K.; Kulp, Scott; Strauss, Benjamin H.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael

2018-03-01

Sea-level rise (SLR) is magnifying the frequency and severity of extreme sea levels (ESLs) that can cause coastal flooding. The rate and amount of global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise is a function of the trajectory of global mean surface temperature (GMST). Therefore, temperature stabilization targets (e.g. 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C of warming above pre-industrial levels, as from the Paris Agreement) have important implications for coastal flood risk. Here, we assess, in a global network of tide gauges, the differences in the expected frequencies of ESLs between scenarios that stabilize GMST warming at 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We employ probabilistic, localized SLR projections and long-term hourly tide gauge records to estimate the expected frequencies of historical and future ESLs for the 21st and 22nd centuries. By 2100, under 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C GMST stabilization, the median GMSL is projected to rise 48 cm (90% probability of 28-82 cm), 56 cm (28-96 cm), and 58 cm (37-93 cm), respectively. As an independent comparison, a semi-empirical sea level model calibrated to temperature and GMSL over the past two millennia estimates median GMSL rise within 7-8 cm of these projections. By 2150, relative to the 2.0 °C scenario and based on median sea level projections, GMST stabilization of 1.5 °C spares the inundation of lands currently home to about 5 million people, including 60 000 individuals currently residing in Small Island Developing States. We quantify projected changes to the expected frequency of historical 10-, 100-, and 500-year ESL events using frequency amplification factors that incorporate uncertainty in both local SLR and historical return periods of ESLs. By 2150, relative to a 2.0 °C scenario, the reduction in the frequency amplification of the historical 100 year ESL event arising from a 1.5 °C GMST stabilization is greatest in the eastern United States, with ESL event frequency amplification being reduced by about half at most tide gauges. In general, smaller reductions are projected for Small Island Developing States.

Methane release from the southern Brazilian margin during the last glacial.

PubMed

Portilho-Ramos, R C; Cruz, A P S; Barbosa, C F; Rathburn, A E; Mulitza, S; Venancio, I M; Schwenk, T; Rühlemann, C; Vidal, L; Chiessi, C M; Silveira, C S

2018-04-13

Seafloor methane release can significantly affect the global carbon cycle and climate. Appreciable quantities of methane are stored in continental margin sediments as shallow gas and hydrate deposits, and changes in pressure, temperature and/or bottom-currents can liberate significant amounts of this greenhouse gas. Understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of marine methane deposits and their relationships to environmental change are critical for assessing past and future carbon cycle and climate change. Here we present foraminiferal stable carbon isotope and sediment mineralogy records suggesting for the first time that seafloor methane release occurred along the southern Brazilian margin during the last glacial period (40-20 cal ka BP). Our results show that shallow gas deposits on the southern Brazilian margin responded to glacial-interglacial paleoceanographic changes releasing methane due to the synergy of sea level lowstand, warmer bottom waters and vigorous bottom currents during the last glacial period. High sea level during the Holocene resulted in an upslope shift of the Brazil Current, cooling the bottom waters and reducing bottom current strength, reducing methane emissions from the southern Brazilian margin.

Salton Sea ecosystem monitoring and assessment plan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Case(compiler), H. L.; Boles, Jerry; Delgado, Arturo; Nguyen, Thang; Osugi, Doug; Barnum, Douglas A.; Decker, Drew; Steinberg, Steven; Steinberg, Sheila; Keene, Charles; White, Kristina; Lupo, Tom; Gen, Sheldon; Baerenklau, Ken A.

2013-01-01

The Salton Sea, California’s largest lake, provides essential habitat for several fish and wildlife species and is an important cultural and recreational resource. It has no outlet, and dissolved salts contained in the inflows concentrate in the Salton Sea through evaporation. The salinity of the Salton Sea, which is currently nearly one and a half times the salinity of ocean water, has been increasing as a result of evaporative processes and low freshwater inputs. Further reductions in inflows from water conservation, recycling, and transfers will lower the level of the Salton Sea and accelerate the rate of salinity increases, reduce the suitability of fish and wildlife habitat, and affect air quality by exposing lakebed playa that could generate dust. Legislation enacted in 2003 to implement the Quantification Settlement Agreement (QSA) stated the Legislature’s intent for the State of California to undertake the restoration of the Salton Sea ecosystem. As required by the legislation, the California Resources Agency (now California Natural Resources Agency) produced the Salton Sea Ecosystem Restoration Study and final Programmatic Environmental Impact Report (PEIR; California Resources Agency, 2007) with the stated purpose to “develop a preferred alternative by exploring alternative ways to restore important ecological functions of the Salton Sea that have existed for about 100 years.” A decision regarding a preferred alternative currently resides with the California State Legislature (Legislature), which has yet to take action. As part of efforts to identify an ecosystem restoration program for the Salton Sea, and in anticipation of direction from the Legislature, the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW), U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) established a team to develop a monitoring and assessment plan (MAP). This plan is the product of that effort. The goal of the MAP is to provide a guide for data collection, analysis, management, and reporting to inform management actions for the Salton Sea ecosystem. Monitoring activities are directed at species and habitats that could be affected by or drive future restoration activities. The MAP is not intended to be a prescriptive document. Rather, it is envisioned to be a flexible, program-level guide that articulates high-level goals and objectives, and establishes broad sideboards within which future project-level investigations and studies will be evaluated and authorized. As such, the MAP, by design, does not, for example, include detailed protocols describing how investigations will be implemented. It is anticipated that detailed study proposals will be prepared as part of an implementation plan that will include such things as specific sampling objectives, sampling schemes, and statistical and spatial limits.

Artificial radionuclides in the surface waters of the Baltic Sea and the North Sea in the fall of 1984

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kadzhene, G.I.; Kleiza, I.V.; Korotkov, V.P.

1987-10-01

The authors compare data from the literature with data taken in the fall of 1984 on the concentrations of cesium 137, strontium 90, cesium 144, and tritium in the waters of the Baltic and North seas. Sampling was conducted along the coastal regions as well as offshore and the consequent concentration and distribution profiles are mapped. They attempt to assess the weight of meteorological and water current as well as seasonal factors on the determined levels and also point to possible sources of the isotopes, including nuclear power plants situated along Baltic and North Sea shorelines and an atmospheric testmore » of a thermonuclear bomb carried out by China.« less

Incorporating future change into current conservation planning: Evaluating tidal saline wetland migration along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast under alternative sea-level rise and urbanization scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Enwright, Nicholas M.; Griffith, Kereen T.; Osland, Michael J.

2015-11-02

In this study, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, quantified the potential for landward migration of tidal saline wetlands along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast under alternative future sea-level rise and urbanization scenarios. Our analyses focused exclusively on tidal saline wetlands (that is, mangrove forests, salt marshes, and salt flats), and we combined these diverse tidal saline wetland ecosystems into a single grouping, “tidal saline wetland.” Collectively, our approach and findings can provide useful information for scientists and environmental planners working to develop future-focused adaptation strategies for conserving coastal landscapes and the ecosystem goods and services provided by tidal saline wetlands. The primary product of this work is a public dataset that identifies locations where landward migration of tidal saline wetlands is expected to occur under alternative future sea-level rise and urbanization scenarios. In addition to identifying areas where landward migration of tidal saline wetlands is possible because of the absence of barriers, these data also identify locations where landward migration of these wetlands could be prevented by barriers associated with current urbanization, future urbanization, and levees.

Energetic demands of immature sea otters from birth to weaning: implications for maternal costs, reproductive behavior and population-level trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thometz, N.M.; Tinker, M.T.; Staedler, M.M.; Mayer, K.A.; Williams, T.M.

2014-01-01

Sea otters (Enhydra lutris) have the highest mass-specific metabolic rate of any marine mammal, which is superimposed on the inherently high costs of reproduction and lactation in adult females. These combined energetic demands have been implicated in the poor body condition and increased mortality of female sea otters nearing the end of lactation along the central California coast. However, the cost of lactation is unknown and currently cannot be directly measured for this marine species in the wild. Here, we quantified the energetic demands of immature sea otters across five developmental stages as a means of assessing the underlying energetic challenges associated with pup rearing that may contribute to poor maternal condition. Activity-specific metabolic rates, daily activity budgets and field metabolic rates (FMR) were determined for each developmental stage. Mean FMR of pre-molt pups was 2.29±0.81 MJ day−1 and increased to 6.16±2.46 and 7.41±3.17 MJ day−1 in post-molt pups and dependent immature animals, respectively. Consequently, daily energy demands of adult females increase 17% by 3 weeks postpartum and continue increasing to 96% above pre-pregnancy levels by the average age of weaning. Our results suggest that the energetics of pup rearing superimposed on small body size, marine living and limited on-board energetic reserves conspire to make female sea otters exceptionally vulnerable to energetic shortfalls. By controlling individual fitness, maternal behavior and pup provisioning strategies, this underlying metabolic challenge appears to be a major factor influencing current population trends in southern sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis).

Tidal energetics: Studies with a barotropic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, James Scott

The tidal energy from luni-solar gravitational forcing is dissipated principally through the dissipation of oceanic tides. Recent estimates using disparate methods, including analysis of satellite orbits and the timing of ancient eclipses, now indicate that this dissipation totals approximately 3.5 terawatts. However, the mechanisms and spatial distribution of this dissipation is not yet fully understood. In this work, three different aspects of tidal energetics are investigated with a variable resolution barotropic tidal model. The distribution of tidal energy, dissipation and energy flux are examined using high resolution models of several marginal seas: the European shelf, the Sea of Okhotsk, the Yellow and East China Seas, the South China Sea and the Bering Sea. Most modern tide models dissipate tidal energy with a quadratic friction parameterization of bottom friction. Since such dissipation depends nonlinearly on the velocity of the tidal current, these models dissipate primarily in shallow seas where current magnitudes are high. Without assimilating observational data, such tidal models have unreasonably high levels of tidal-period averaged kinetic and potential energies. I have added a linear friction parameterization to the traditional quadratic formulation and am able to obtain realistic tidal energy levels with an unassimilated model. The resulting model is used to investigate the tidal energetics of the recent geological past when sea level was 50 meters higher and 120 meters lower than at the present time. Long-period tides are of small enough amplitude that their energetics are an almost negligible part of the total tidal energy budget. However, the behavior of these tides yields insights into the response of the ocean to large scale forcing. We have modeled the lunar fortnightly (M f) and lunar monthly (Mm) tidal components and determined that the ratio of the Mf potential-to-kinetic energy ratio to that of Mm is about 3.9, consistent with values expected for long Rossby wave dynamics. Also, we obtain quality (Q) values for the Mf and Mm tides of 5.9 and 6.2 respectively which is consistent with recent inferences of basin circulation responses of Q of about 5.5 for 5-day synoptic forcing.

Projections of extreme water level events for atolls in the western Tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrifield, M. A.; Becker, J. M.; Ford, M.; Yao, Y.

2014-12-01

Conditions that lead to extreme water levels and coastal flooding are examined for atolls in the Republic of the Marshall Islands based on a recent field study of wave transformations over fringing reefs, tide gauge observations, and wave model hindcasts. Wave-driven water level extremes pose the largest threat to atoll shorelines, with coastal levels scaling as approximately one-third of the incident breaking wave height. The wave-driven coastal water level is partitioned into a mean setup, low frequency oscillations associated with cross-reef quasi-standing modes, and wind waves that reach the shore after undergoing high dissipation due to breaking and bottom friction. All three components depend on the water level over the reef; however, the sum of the components is independent of water level due to cancelling effects. Wave hindcasts suggest that wave-driven water level extremes capable of coastal flooding are infrequent events that require a peak wave event to coincide with mid- to high-tide conditions. Interannual and decadal variations in sea level do not change the frequency of these events appreciably. Future sea-level rise scenarios significantly increase the flooding threat associated with wave events, with a nearly exponential increase in flooding days per year as sea level exceeds 0.3 to 1.0 m above current levels.

Sea-level rise and archaeological site destruction: An example from the southeastern United States using DINAA (Digital Index of North American Archaeology).

PubMed

Anderson, David G; Bissett, Thaddeus G; Yerka, Stephen J; Wells, Joshua J; Kansa, Eric C; Kansa, Sarah W; Myers, Kelsey Noack; DeMuth, R Carl; White, Devin A

2017-01-01

The impact of changing climate on terrestrial and underwater archaeological sites, historic buildings, and cultural landscapes can be examined through quantitatively-based analyses encompassing large data samples and broad geographic and temporal scales. The Digital Index of North American Archaeology (DINAA) is a multi-institutional collaboration that allows researchers online access to linked heritage data from multiple sources and data sets. The effects of sea-level rise and concomitant human population relocation is examined using a sample from nine states encompassing much of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States. A 1 m rise in sea-level will result in the loss of over >13,000 recorded historic and prehistoric archaeological sites, as well as over 1000 locations currently eligible for inclusion on the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP), encompassing archaeological sites, standing structures, and other cultural properties. These numbers increase substantially with each additional 1 m rise in sea level, with >32,000 archaeological sites and >2400 NRHP properties lost should a 5 m rise occur. Many more unrecorded archaeological and historic sites will also be lost as large areas of the landscape are flooded. The displacement of millions of people due to rising seas will cause additional impacts where these populations resettle. Sea level rise will thus result in the loss of much of the record of human habitation of the coastal margin in the Southeast within the next one to two centuries, and the numbers indicate the magnitude of the impact on the archaeological record globally. Construction of large linked data sets is essential to developing procedures for sampling, triage, and mitigation of these impacts.

Sea-level rise and archaeological site destruction: An example from the southeastern United States using DINAA (Digital Index of North American Archaeology)

PubMed Central

Wells, Joshua J.; Kansa, Eric C.; Kansa, Sarah W.; Myers, Kelsey Noack; DeMuth, R. Carl; White, Devin A.

2017-01-01

The impact of changing climate on terrestrial and underwater archaeological sites, historic buildings, and cultural landscapes can be examined through quantitatively-based analyses encompassing large data samples and broad geographic and temporal scales. The Digital Index of North American Archaeology (DINAA) is a multi-institutional collaboration that allows researchers online access to linked heritage data from multiple sources and data sets. The effects of sea-level rise and concomitant human population relocation is examined using a sample from nine states encompassing much of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States. A 1 m rise in sea-level will result in the loss of over >13,000 recorded historic and prehistoric archaeological sites, as well as over 1000 locations currently eligible for inclusion on the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP), encompassing archaeological sites, standing structures, and other cultural properties. These numbers increase substantially with each additional 1 m rise in sea level, with >32,000 archaeological sites and >2400 NRHP properties lost should a 5 m rise occur. Many more unrecorded archaeological and historic sites will also be lost as large areas of the landscape are flooded. The displacement of millions of people due to rising seas will cause additional impacts where these populations resettle. Sea level rise will thus result in the loss of much of the record of human habitation of the coastal margin in the Southeast within the next one to two centuries, and the numbers indicate the magnitude of the impact on the archaeological record globally. Construction of large linked data sets is essential to developing procedures for sampling, triage, and mitigation of these impacts. PMID:29186200

Modeling Reef Island Morphodynamics in Profile and Plan View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashton, A. D.; Ortiz, A. C.; Lorenzo-Trueba, J.

2016-12-01

Reef islands are carbonate detrital landforms perched atop shallow reef flats of atolls and barrier reef systems. Often comprising the only subaerial, inhabitable land of many island chains and island nations, these low-lying, geomorphically active landforms face considerable hazards from climate change. While there hazards include wave overtopping and groundwater salinization, sea-level rise and wave climate change will affect sediment transport and shoreline dynamics, including the possibility for wholesale reorganization of the islands themselves. Here we present a simplified morphodynamic model that can spatially quantify the potential impacts of climate change on reef islands. Using parameterizations of sediment transport pathways and feedbacks from previously presented XBeach modeling results, we investigate how sea-level rise, change in storminess, and different carbonate production rates can affect the profile evolution of reef islands, including feedbacks with the shallow reef flat that bounds the islands offshore (and lagoonward). Model results demonstrate that during rising sea levels, the reef flat can serve as a sediment trap, starving reef islands of detrital sediment that could otherwise fortify the shore against sea-level-rise-driven erosion. On the other hand, if reef flats are currently shallow (likely due to geologic inheritance or biologic cementation processes) such that sea-level rise does not result in sediment accumulation on the flat, reef island shorelines may be more resilient to rising seas. We extend the model in plan view to examine how long-term (decadal) changes in wave approach direction could affect reef island shoreline orientation. We compare model results to historical and geologic change for different case studies on the Marshall Islands. This simplified modeling approach, focusing on boundary dynamics and mass fluxes, provides a quantitative tool to predict the response of reef island environments to climate change.

Extreme sea levels on the rise along Europe's coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vousdoukas, Michalis I.; Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Verlaan, Martin; Feyen, Luc

2017-03-01

Future extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along European coasts will be strongly impacted by global warming. Yet, comprehensive projections of ESL that include mean sea level (MSL), tides, waves, and storm surges do not exist. Here, we show changes in all components of ESLs until 2100 in view of climate change. We find that by the end of this century, the 100-year ESL along Europe's coastlines is on average projected to increase by 57 cm for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 and 81 cm for RCP8.5. The North Sea region is projected to face the highest increase in ESLs, amounting to nearly 1 m under RCP8.5 by 2100, followed by the Baltic Sea and Atlantic coasts of the UK and Ireland. Relative sea level rise (RSLR) is shown to be the main driver of the projected rise in ESL, with increasing dominance toward the end of the century and for the high-concentration pathway. Changes in storm surges and waves enhance the effects of RSLR along the majority of northern European coasts, locally with contributions up to 40%. In southern Europe, episodic extreme events tend to stay stable, except along the Portuguese coast and the Gulf of Cadiz where reductions in surge and wave extremes offset RSLR by 20-30%. By the end of this century, 5 million Europeans currently under threat of a 100-year ESL could be annually at risk from coastal flooding under high-end warming. The presented dataset is available through this link: http://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/LISCOAST.

Gridded climate data from 5 GCMs of the Last Glacial Maximum downscaled to 30 arc s for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmatz, D. R.; Luterbacher, J.; Zimmermann, N. E.; Pearman, P. B.

2015-06-01

Studies of the impacts of historical, current and future global change require very high-resolution climate data (≤ 1 km) as a basis for modelled responses, meaning that data from digital climate models generally require substantial rescaling. Another shortcoming of available datasets on past climate is that the effects of sea level rise and fall are not considered. Without such information, the study of glacial refugia or early Holocene plant and animal migration are incomplete if not impossible. Sea level at the last glacial maximum (LGM) was approximately 125 m lower, creating substantial additional terrestrial area for which no current baseline data exist. Here, we introduce the development of a novel, gridded climate dataset for LGM that is both very high resolution (1 km) and extends to the LGM sea and land mask. We developed two methods to extend current terrestrial precipitation and temperature data to areas between the current and LGM coastlines. The absolute interpolation error is less than 1 and 0.5 °C for 98.9 and 87.8 %, respectively, of all pixels within two arc degrees of the current coastline. We use the change factor method with these newly assembled baseline data to downscale five global circulation models of LGM climate to a resolution of 1 km for Europe. As additional variables we calculate 19 "bioclimatic" variables, which are often used in climate change impact studies on biological diversity. The new LGM climate maps are well suited for analysing refugia and migration during Holocene warming following the LGM.

Reconstruction of paleoenvironmental changes based on the planktonic foraminiferal assemblages off Shimokita (Japan) in the northwestern North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuroyanagi, Azumi; Kawahata, Hodaka; Narita, Hisashi; Ohkushi, Ken'ichi; Aramaki, Takafumi

2006-08-01

Planktonic foraminifera live in the upper ocean, and their assemblages can record the surrounding environment. To reconstruct changes in water masses and the timing of flow of the Oyashio and Tsugaru currents through the Tsugaru Strait after the Last Glacial Maximum, when the Japan Sea had been almost isolated from the surrounding seas, we investigated at high resolution the planktonic foraminiferal fauna in seafloor sediments off the Shimokita (core MD01-2409: 41°33.9'N, 141°52.1'E), in the northwestern North Pacific, over the last 26,900 years. Factor analysis of the foraminiferal assemblage suggests that the water mass changed significantly as a result of the deglacial sea-level rise and opening of the straits into the Japan Sea. Mass accumulation rates of some selected foraminiferal species that inhabit characteristic environments (e.g., warm stratified water, Oyashio Current, Tsushima Current) corroborate these changes in water mass and water column structure. We also used the ratio of the dextral form to total Neogloboquadrina pachyderma as an indicator of subsurface (below the pycnocline) water temperature. We recognized five distinct periods of oceanographic change at the study site, which is just east of the Tsugaru Strait: (1) Oyashio Current affecting both surface and subsurface waters (26.9-15.7 thousand calendar years before present (cal. kyr BP)); (2) vertical mixing and subsurface warming as the Oyashio Current began to flow into the Japan Sea through the Tsugaru Strait (15.7-10.6 cal. kyr BP); (3) outflow of the Tsugaru Current from the Japan Sea into the Pacific, leading to baroclinic conditions, with the surface layer under the influence of the Tsugaru and the subsurface layers of the Oyashio Current (10.6-9.0 cal. kyr BP); (4) stratification of the water column developed as the flow of the Tsugaru Current increased (9.0-6.2 cal. kyr BP); and (5) warming of the subsurface layer, disruption of the stratification, and dominance of the Tsugaru Current in both surface and subsurface layers, similar to the present situation (6.2-1.5 cal. kyr BP). The timing of flow of the Oyashio and Tsugaru currents through the strait at the study site off Shimokita is generally compatible with the results of studies in the Japan Sea. The flow of the Tsugaru Current led to progressive warming of the waters, from the surface to the subsurface layers and from the Japan Sea side to the Pacific side of the Tsugaru Strait, beginning in 8.3-6.8 cal. kyr BP on the western side, and in 6.2 cal. kyr BP on the eastern side of the strait. By 4.8 cal. kyr BP on the western side, and by ˜ 3.4 cal. kyr BP on the eastern side of the strait, warm water prevailed in both surface and subsurface layers.

Statistical modelling of sea lice count data from salmon farms in the Faroe Islands.

PubMed

Gislason, H

2018-06-01

Fiskaaling regularly counts the number of sea lice in the attached development stages (chalimus, mobiles and adult) for the salmon farms in the Faroe Islands. A statistical model of the data is developed. In the model, the sea-lice infection is represented by the chalimus (or mobile) lice developing into adult lice and is used to simulate past and current levels of adult lice-including treatments-as well as to predict the adult sea lice level 1-2 months into the future. Time series of the chalimus and adult lice show cross-correlations that shift in time and grow in size with temperature. This implies in situ the temperature-dependent development times of about 56 down to 42 days and the inverted development times (growth rates) of 0.018 up to 0.024 lice/day at 8-10°C. The temperature dependence DT=α1T+α2α3=17,840T+7.439-2.128is approximated byD1T=105.2-6.578T≈49 days at the mean temperature 8.5°C-similar to DchaT=100.6-6.507T≈45 days from EWOS data. The observed development times at four sites for a year (2010-11) were 49, 50, 51 and 52 days, respectively. Finally, we estimate the sea lice production from fish farms to discuss approaches to control the sea lice epidemics-preferably by natural means. This study is useful for understanding sea lice levels and treatments, and for in situ analysis of the sea-lice development times and growth rates. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Factors controlling late Cenozoic continental margin growth from the Ebro Delta to the western Mediterranean deep sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, C.H.; Maldonado, A.

1990-01-01

The Ebro continental margin sedimentation system originated with a Messinian fluvial system. This system eroded both a major subaerial canyon cutting the margin southeastward from the present Ebro Delta and an axial valley that drained northeastward down Valencia Trough. Post-Messinian submergence of this topography and the Pliocene regime of high sea levels resulted in a marine hemipelagic drape over the margin. Late Pliocene to Pleistocene glacial climatic cycles, drainagebasin deforestation, and sea-level lowstands combined to increase sediment supply, cause the margin to prograde, and create a regime of lowstand sediment-gravity flows in the deeper margin. The depositional patterns of regressive, transgressive and highstand sea-level regimes suggest that location of the sediment source near the present Ebro Delta throughout the late Cenozoic, southward current advection of sediment, and greater subsidence in the southern margin combined to cause generally asymmetric progradation of the margin to the southeast. Thicker, less stable deposits filling the Messinian subaerial canyon underwent multiple retrograde failures, eroded wide gullied canyons and formed unchanneled base-of-slope sediment aprons in the central margin area; other margin areas to the north and south developed a series of channel-levee complexes. On the basin floor, the formation of Valencia Valley over the Messinian subaerial valley and earlier faults led to draining of about 20% of the Ebro Pleistocene sediment from channel-levee complexes through the valley to prograde Valencia Fan as much as 500 km northeast of the margin. Thus, the Ebro margin has two growth directions, mainly southeastward during higher sea levels, and eastward to northeastward during lower sea levels. The northeastward draining of turbidity currents has produced unusually thin and widely dispersed turbidite systems compared to those on ponded basin floors. During the past few centuries, man's impact has exceeded natural controls on Ebro margin growth. Deforestation of the drainage basin more than doubled the normal Holocene sediment supply, and construction of dams then reduced the supply by 95%. This reduction of the past 50 years has caused erosion of the delta and contamination of bottom sediment because normal Holocene sediment discharge is not available to prograde the delta or help dilute pollutants. ?? 1990.

Combined effects of projected sea level rise, storm surge, and peak river flows on water levels in the Skagit Floodplain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamman, Josheph J; Hamlet, Alan F.; Fuller, Roger; Grossman, Eric E.

2016-01-01

Current understanding of the combined effects of sea level rise (SLR), storm surge, and changes in river flooding on near-coastal environments is very limited. This project uses a suite of numerical models to examine the combined effects of projected future climate change on flooding in the Skagit floodplain and estuary. Statistically and dynamically downscaled global climate model scenarios from the ECHAM-5 GCM were used as the climate forcings. Unregulated daily river flows were simulated using the VIC hydrology model, and regulated river flows were simulated using the SkagitSim reservoir operations model. Daily tidal anomalies (TA) were calculated using a regression approach based on ENSO and atmospheric pressure forcing simulated by the WRF regional climate model. A 2-D hydrodynamic model was used to estimate water surface elevations in the Skagit floodplain using resampled hourly hydrographs keyed to regulated daily flood flows produced by the reservoir simulation model, and tide predictions adjusted for SLR and TA. Combining peak annual TA with projected sea level rise, the historical (1970–1999) 100-yr peak high water level is exceeded essentially every year by the 2050s. The combination of projected sea level rise and larger floods by the 2080s yields both increased flood inundation area (+ 74%), and increased average water depth (+ 25 cm) in the Skagit floodplain during a 100-year flood. Adding sea level rise to the historical FEMA 100-year flood resulted in a 35% increase in inundation area by the 2040's, compared to a 57% increase when both SLR and projected changes in river flow were combined.

Sea Fighter Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-02-01

which is used by the model to drive the normal activities of the crew (Figure C.1-2). These routines consist of a sequential list of high- level...separately. Figure C.1-3: Resources & Logic Sheet C.1.1.4 Scenario The scenario that is performed during a model run is a sequential list of all...were marked with a white fore and aft lineup stripe on both landing spots. Current Sea Fighter design does not provide a hangar; however, there

Indonesian drilling maintains steady pace

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1985-05-01

Offshore drilling activity in Indonesia increased nominally the first quarter of 1985 to an average 29 rigs. Barring any further problems with oil prices and markets, operators are expected to maintain essentially the current general level of appraisal/development work for the rest of this year. There are still a number of prospective regions to be explored in Southeast Asia. Regional developments are described for the South China Sea area, the Java Sea, South Sumatra, Kalimantan, Irian Jaya and the Malacca Strait.

Shelf Circulation Induced by an Orographic Wind Jet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ràfols, Laura; Grifoll, Manel; Jordà, Gabriel; Espino, Manuel; Sairouní, Abdel; Bravo, Manel

2017-10-01

The dynamical response to cross-shelf wind-jet episodes is investigated. The study area is located at the northern margin of the Ebro Shelf, in the Northwestern (NW) Mediterranean Sea, where episodes of strong northwesterly wind occur. In this case, the wind is channeled through the Ebro Valley and intensifies upon reaching the sea, resulting in a wind jet. The wind-jet response in terms of water circulation and vertical density structure is investigated using a numerical model. The numerical outputs agree with water current observations from a high-frequency radar. Additionally, temperature, sea level, and wind measurements are also used for the skill assessment of the model. For the wind-jet episodes, the numerical results show a well-defined two-layer circulation in the cross-shelf direction, with the surface currents in the direction of the wind. This pattern is consistent with sea level set-down due to the wind effect. The comparison of the vertical structure response for different episodes revealed that the increase of stratification leads to an onshore displacement of the transition from inner shelf to mid-shelf. In general, the cross-shelf momentum balance during a wind-jet episode exhibits a balance between the frictional terms and the pressure gradient in shallow waters, shifting to a balance between the Coriolis force and the wind stress terms in deeper waters.

Occurrence and Risk Assessment of PAHs in Surface Sediments from Western Arctic and Subarctic Oceans

PubMed Central

Lin, Yan; Cai, Minggang; Zhang, Jingjing; Zhang, Yuanbiao; Kuang, Weiming; Liu, Lin; Huang, Peng; Ke, Hongwei

2018-01-01

In the fourth Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition (from July to September, 2010), 14 surface sediment samples were collected from the Bering Sea, Chukchi Sea, and Canadian Basin to examine the spatial distributions, potential sources, as well as ecological and health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). The ∑PAH (refers to the sum of 16 priority PAHs) concentration range from 27.66 ng/g to 167.48 ng/g (dry weight, d.w.). Additionally, the concentrations of ∑PAH were highest in the margin edges of the Canadian Basin, which may originate from coal combustion with an accumulation of Canadian point sources and river runoff due to the surface ocean currents. The lowest levels occurred in the northern of Canadian Basin, and the levels of ∑PAH in the Chukchi Sea were slightly higher than those in the Being Sea. Three isomer ratios of PAHs (Phenanthrene/Anthracene, BaA/(BaA+Chy), and LMW/HMW) were used to investigate the potential sources of PAHs, which showed the main source of combustion combined with weaker petroleum contribution. Compared with four sediment quality guidelines, the concentrations of PAH are much lower, indicating a low potential ecological risk. All TEQPAH also showed a low risk to human health. Our study revealed the important role of the ocean current on the redistribution of PAHs in the Arctic. PMID:29649142

Numerical Analysis of the Effect of Active Wind Speed and Direction on Circulation of Sea of Azov Water with and without Allowance for the Water Exchange through the Kerch Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cherkesov, L. V.; Shul'ga, T. Ya.

2018-01-01

The effect of seawater movement through the Kerch Strait for extreme deviations in the level and speed of currents in the Sea of Azov caused by the action of climate wind fields has been studied using the Princeton ocean model (POM), a general three-dimensional nonlinear model of ocean circulation. Formation of the water flow through the strait is caused by the long-term action of the same type of atmospheric processes. The features of the water dynamics under conditions of changing intensity and active wind direction have been studied. Numerical experiments were carried out for two versions of model Sea of Azov basins: closed (without the Kerch Strait) and with a fluid boundary located in the Black Sea. The simulation results have shown that allowance for the strait leads to a significant change in the velocities of steady currents and level deviations at wind speeds greater than 5 m/s. The most significant effect on the parameters of steady-state movements is exerted by the speed of the wind that generates them; allowance for water exchange through the strait is less important. Analysis of the directions of atmospheric circulation has revealed that the response generated by the movement of water through the strait is most pronounced when a southeast wind is acting.

Implementation of CGPS at Estartit, Ibiza and Barcelona harbours for sea level monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez-Benjamin, J. J.; Ortiz Castellon, M.; Martinez-Garcia, M.; Perez, B.; Bosch, E.; Termens, A.; Martinez de Oses, X.

2009-12-01

The determination of global and regional mean sea level variations with accura-cies better than 1 mm/yr is a critical problem, the resolution of which is central to the current debate on climate change and its impact on the environment. Highly accurate time series from both satellite altimetry and tide gauges are needed. Measuring the sea surface height with in-situ tide gauges and GPS receivers pro-vides an efficient way to control the long term stability of the radar altimeters and other applications as the vertical land motion and studies of sea level change. L’Estartit tide gauge is a classical floating tide gauge set up in l’Estartit harbour (NE Spain) in 1990. Data are taken in graphics registers from which each two hours the mean value is recorded in an electronic support and delivered to the Permanent Service for Mean Sea level (PSMSL). Periodic surveying campaigns along the year are carried out for monitoring possible vertical movement of the geodetic benchmark adjacent to the tide gauge. Puertos del Estado (Spanish Harbours) installed the tide gauge station at Ibiza har-bour in January 2003 and a near GPS reference station. The station belongs to the REDMAR network, composed at this moment by 21 stations distributed along the whole Spanish waters, including also the Canary islands (http://www.puertos.es). The tide gauge also belongs to the ESEAS (European Sea Level) network. A description of the actual infrastructure at Ibiza, Barcelona and l’Estartit har-bours is presented.The main objective is the implementation of these harbours as a precise geodetic areas for sea level monitoring and altimeter calibration. Actually is a CGPS with a radar tide gauge from Puertos del Estado and a GPS belonging to Puerto de Barcelona. A precise levelling has been made by the Cartographic Insti-tute of Catalonia, ICC. The instrumentation of sea level measurements has been improved by providing the Barcelona site with a radar tide gauge Datamar 3000C device and a Thales Navigation Internet-Enabled GPS Continuous Geodetic Ref-erence Station (iCGRS) with a choke ring antenna, located at the EPSEB of the Technical University of Catalonia, UPC. It is intended that the overall system will constitute a CGPS Station of the ESEAS and TIGA networks.

Earth Observation taken by the Expedition 33 crew

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-11-03

ISS033-E-018010 (3 Nov. 2012) --- Volcanoes in central Kamchatka are featured in this image photographed by an Expedition 33 crew member on the International Space Station. The snow-covered peaks of several volcanoes of the central Kamchatka Peninsula are visible standing above a fairly uniform cloud deck that obscures the surrounding lowlands. In addition to the rippled cloud patterns caused by interactions of air currents and the volcanoes, a steam and ash plume is visible at center extending north-northeast from the relatively low summit (2,882 meters above sea level) of Bezymianny volcano. Volcanic activity in this part of Russia is relatively frequent, and well monitored by Russia’s Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT). The KVERT website provides updated information about the activity levels on the peninsula, including aviation alerts and webcams. Directly to the north and northeast of Bezymianny, the much larger and taller stratovolcanoes Kamen (4,585 meters above sea level) and Kliuchevskoi (4,835 meters above sea level) are visible. Kliuchevskoi, Kamchatka’s most active volcano, last erupted in 2011 whereas neighboring Kamen has not erupted during the recorded history of the region. An explosive eruption from the summit of the large volcanic massif of Ushkovsky (3,943 meters above sea level; left) northwest of Bezymianny occurred in 1890; this is the most recent activity at this volcano. To the south of Bezymianny, the peaks of Zimina (3,081 meters above sea level) and Udina (2,923 meters above sea level) volcanoes are just visible above the cloud deck; no historical eruptions are known from either volcanic center. While the large Tobalchik volcano to the southwest (bottom center) is largely formed from a basaltic shield volcano, its highest peak (3,682 meters above sea level) is formed from an older stratovolcano. Tobalchik last erupted in 1976. While this image may look like it was taken from the normal altitude of a passenger jet, the space station was located approximately 417 kilometers above the southeastern Sea of Okhotsk; projected downwards to Earth’s surface, the space station was located over 700 kilometers to the southwest of the volcanoes in the image. The combination of low viewing angle from the orbital outpost, shadows, and height and distance from the volcanoes contributes to the appearance of topographic relief visible in the image.

Synoptic characteristics of heavy snowfalls at Busan of Korea caused by polar lows over the East/Japan Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Jae-Won; Cha, Yumi; Kim, Hae-Dong

2018-02-01

The results of the present study prove that snowfall occurred due to the polar low (PL) in the Korean Peninsula and six cases of snowfall exceeding a snow depth of 2 cm over the past 16 years in Busan, South Korea. A strong northwesterly air current with a cold outbreak at the lower level passed through the Korean Peninsula and penetrated into the East/Japan Sea causing the generation and characteristics of a PL. However, a northeasterly air current due to a synoptic low (SL) in East Japan approached the east coast via the East/Japan Sea, which generated a wind field with mesoscale cyclonic circulation. In the center of this cyclone, a strong positive vorticity region was revealed from the lower level to the upper level. The air temperature in the center of the PL was warmer than the surrounding areas at the lower level. As the PL developed and the air temperature decreased, a rapid tropopause drop followed due to the effect of the cold core along with the cutoff low at the mid-level or the higher level. As a result, the stratification became more unstable. The PL moved into Busan as the cold core at the upper level rapidly moved to the lower latitudes, which formed an unstable region around Busan. The PL decayed because the cutoff low, the cold core, and the positive vorticity region at the upper level quickly moved to the east, thereby causing the stratification to stabilize. Also, because the approach to the Japanese Archipelago caused an increase in surface friction, the original structure could no longer be maintained.

Losing ground - scenarios of land loss as consequence of shifting sediment budgets in the Mekong Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitt, R. J. P.; Rubin, Z.; Kondolf, G. M.

2017-10-01

With changing climate and rising seas, proliferation of hydroelectric dams, instream sand mining, dyking of floodplains, accelerated subsidence from groundwater pumping, accelerated sea-level rise, and other anthropic impacts, it is certain that the Mekong Delta will undergo large changes in the coming decades. These changes will threaten the very existence of the landform itself. The multiplicity of compounding drivers and lack of reliable data lead to large uncertainties in forecasting changes in the sediment budget of the Mekong Delta, its morphology, and the ecosystems and human livelihoods it supports. We compile information on key drivers affecting the sediment budget of the Mekong Delta and compare them to quantify the magnitude of effects from different drivers. We develop a set of likely scenarios for the future development of these drivers and quantify implications for the future of the Mekong Delta using a simplified model of the delta's geometry. If sediment supply to the delta is nearly completely cut off, as would be the case with full buildout of planned dams and current rates of sediment mining, and with continued groundwater pumping at current rates, our model forecasts that the delta will almost completely disappear by the end of this century due to increased rates of delta subsidence and rising sea levels. While local management cannot prevent global sea level rise, model results suggest that there are important management steps that could prolong the persistence of the delta ecosystem and the livelihoods it supports, including a reduction in ground water pumping and maintaining sediment connectivity between the basin and the delta.

Uncertainty quantification of Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise using the fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet (f.ETISh) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulthuis, Kevin; Arnst, Maarten; Pattyn, Frank; Favier, Lionel

2017-04-01

Uncertainties in sea-level rise projections are mostly due to uncertainties in Antarctic ice-sheet predictions (IPCC AR5 report, 2013), because key parameters related to the current state of the Antarctic ice sheet (e.g. sub-ice-shelf melting) and future climate forcing are poorly constrained. Here, we propose to improve the predictions of Antarctic ice-sheet behaviour using new uncertainty quantification methods. As opposed to ensemble modelling (Bindschadler et al., 2013) which provides a rather limited view on input and output dispersion, new stochastic methods (Le Maître and Knio, 2010) can provide deeper insight into the impact of uncertainties on complex system behaviour. Such stochastic methods usually begin with deducing a probabilistic description of input parameter uncertainties from the available data. Then, the impact of these input parameter uncertainties on output quantities is assessed by estimating the probability distribution of the outputs by means of uncertainty propagation methods such as Monte Carlo methods or stochastic expansion methods. The use of such uncertainty propagation methods in glaciology may be computationally costly because of the high computational complexity of ice-sheet models. This challenge emphasises the importance of developing reliable and computationally efficient ice-sheet models such as the f.ETISh ice-sheet model (Pattyn, 2015), a new fast thermomechanical coupled ice sheet/ice shelf model capable of handling complex and critical processes such as the marine ice-sheet instability mechanism. Here, we apply these methods to investigate the role of uncertainties in sub-ice-shelf melting, calving rates and climate projections in assessing Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise for the next centuries using the f.ETISh model. We detail the methods and show results that provide nominal values and uncertainty bounds for future sea-level rise as a reflection of the impact of the input parameter uncertainties under consideration, as well as a ranking of the input parameter uncertainties in the order of the significance of their contribution to uncertainty in future sea-level rise. In addition, we discuss how limitations posed by the available information (poorly constrained data) pose challenges that motivate our current research.

Assessment of Current Estimates of Global and Regional Mean Sea Level from the TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and OSTM 17-Year Record

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beckley, Brian D.; Ray, Richard D.; Lemoine, Frank G.; Zelensky, N. P.; Holmes, S. A.; Desal, Shailen D.; Brown, Shannon; Mitchum, G. T.; Jacob, Samuel; Luthcke, Scott B.

2010-01-01

The science value of satellite altimeter observations has grown dramatically over time as enabling models and technologies have increased the value of data acquired on both past and present missions. With the prospect of an observational time series extending into several decades from TOPEX/Poseidon through Jason-1 and the Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM), and further in time with a future set of operational altimeters, researchers are pushing the bounds of current technology and modeling capability in order to monitor global sea level rate at an accuracy of a few tenths of a mm/yr. The measurement of mean sea-level change from satellite altimetry requires an extreme stability of the altimeter measurement system since the signal being measured is at the level of a few mm/yr. This means that the orbit and reference frame within which the altimeter measurements are situated, and the associated altimeter corrections, must be stable and accurate enough to permit a robust MSL estimate. Foremost, orbit quality and consistency are critical to satellite altimeter measurement accuracy. The orbit defines the altimeter reference frame, and orbit error directly affects the altimeter measurement. Orbit error remains a major component in the error budget of all past and present altimeter missions. For example, inconsistencies in the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) used to produce the precision orbits at different times cause systematic inconsistencies to appear in the multimission time-frame between TOPEX and Jason-1, and can affect the intermission calibration of these data. In an effort to adhere to cross mission consistency, we have generated the full time series of orbits for TOPEX/Poseidon (TP), Jason-1, and OSTM based on recent improvements in the satellite force models, reference systems, and modeling strategies. The recent release of the entire revised Jason-1 Geophysical Data Records, and recalibration of the microwave radiometer correction also require the further re-examination of inter-mission consistency issues. Here we present an assessment of these recent improvements to the accuracy of the 17 -year sea surface height time series, and evaluate the subsequent impact on global and regional mean sea level estimates.

The coastal oasis: ice age springs on emerged continental shelves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faure, Hugues; Walter, Robert C.; Grant, Douglas R.

2002-06-01

As ice caps expanded during each of the last five glaciations, sea level fell at least 120 m below current levels, exposing continental shelves worldwide to create vast areas of new land. As a result of this exposure, the ecology, climate, pedology, and geology of global shorelines were dramatically transformed, which in turn altered the carbon cycle and biodynamics of this new landmass. In this paper, we focus on a little-known hydrogeological phenomenon that may have had profound influences on biodiversity, human evolution, and carbon storage during periods of severe climatic stress of the Pleistocene Ice Ages. We propose that freshwater springs appeared on emerged continental shelves because falling sea level not only drew down and steepened the coastal water table gradient, thus increasing the hydrostatic head on inland groundwater aquifers, but also removed up to 120 m of hydrostatic pressure on the shelf, further enhancing groundwater flow. We call this phenomenon the "coastal oasis", a model based on three well-established facts. (1) In all coastal areas of the world, continental aquifers discharge a continuous flow of fresh water to the oceans. (2) Many submarine sedimentary and morphological features, as well as seepages and flow of fresh water, are known on and below the shelves from petroleum explorations, deep-sea drilling programs, and mariners' observations. (3) Hydraulic principles (Darcy's law) predict increased groundwater flow at the coast when sea level drops because the piezometric head increases by the equivalent depth of sea-level lowering. Sea level is presently in a relatively high interglacial position. Direct observation and verification of our model is difficult and must rely on explorations of terrain that are now deeply submerged on continental shelves. For this reason, we draw parallels between our predicted model and simple, well-exposed terrestrial hydrological systems, such as present-day springs that appear on the exposed shores of lakes whose free-air water levels fell during periods of aridity. Such modern examples are seen in the Caspian Sea and Dead Sea, the Afar Depression, and the Sahara Desert. These modern analogues demonstrate the likelihood that underground water will be more abundant on emerged shelves during sea-level fall, causing springs, oases, and wetlands to appear. Our model creates an apparent paradox: in tropical and subtropical arid lands, such as most of Africa, sea-level fall during hyperarid glacial phases would produce abundant fresh water flow onto emerged continental shelves as the continental interior desiccated. Thus, emergent shoreline springs provided new habitats for terrestrial vegetation and animals displaced from the interior by increasingly arid conditions, shrinking ecosystems, and dwindling water supplies. Such a scenario would have had a profound influence on the vegetation that spreads naturally to colonize the emerged shelves during glacio-eustatic sea-level lowstands, as well as creating new habitats for terrestrial mammals, including early humans.

Strange bedfellows - A deep-water hermatypic coral reef superimposed on a drowned barrier island; Southern Pulley Ridge, SW Florida platform margin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarrett, B.D.; Hine, A.C.; Halley, R.B.; Naar, D.F.; Locker, S.D.; Neumann, A.C.; Twichell, D.; Hu, C.; Donahue, B.T.; Jaap, W.C.; Palandro, D.; Ciembronowicz, K.

2005-01-01

The southeastern component of a subtle ridge feature extending over 200 km along the western ramped margin of the south Florida platform, known as Pulley Ridge, is composed largely of a non-reefal, coastal marine deposit. Modern biostromal reef growth caps southern Pulley Ridge (SPR), making it the deepest hermatypic reef known in American waters. Subsurface ridge strata are layered, lithified, and display a barrier island geomorphology. The deep-water reef community is dominated by platy scleractinian corals, leafy green algae, and coralline algae. Up to 60% live coral cover is observed in 60-75 m of water, although only 1-2% of surface light is available to the reef community. Vertical reef accumulation is thin and did not accompany initial ridge submergence during the most recent sea-level rise. The delayed onset of reef growth likely resulted from several factors influencing Gulf waters during early stages of the last deglaciation (???14 kyr B.P.) including; cold, low-salinity waters derived from discrete meltwater pulses, high-frequency sea-level fluctuations, and the absence of modern oceanic circulation patterns. Currently, reef growth is supported by the Loop Current, the prevailing western boundary current that impinges upon the southwest Florida platform, providing warm, clear, low-nutrient waters to SPR. The rare discovery of a preserved non-reefal lowstand shoreline capped by rich hermatypic deep-reef growth on a tectonically stable continental shelf is significant for both accurate identification of late Quaternary sea-level position and in better constraining controls on the depth limits of hermatypic reefs and their capacity for adaptation to extremely low light levels. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonal antioxidant responses in the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus (Lamarck 1816) used as a bioindicator of the environmental contamination in the South-East Mediterranean.

PubMed

Amri, Sandra; Samar, Mohamed-Faouzi; Sellem, Fériel; Ouali, Kheireddine

2017-09-15

In this study, sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus were sampled seasonally at three stations during 2012 in the coastal areas of the Gulf of Annaba (southeast Mediterranean). For all sea urchins, the gonad index was calculated to determine sea urchin reproductive status. Moreover, a set of biochemical parameters, including biomarkers and oxidative stress parameters, was measured in gonads. The pesticides and physiochemical parameters were measured and dosed in sea water. The results obtained highlighted that the levels of pesticide were generally low and below those commonly applied by environmental quality standards (EQS), indicating that no alarm state is currently present in the Gulf of Annaba. In addition to pollution, seasonal change is an important factor influencing biomarker activity, and the significant increases in biomarker levels in spring are a major observed trend. This activity may also be related to reproductive status. Seasonal variability was confirmed by the significant results of the Kruskal-Wallis test and by the high degree of divergence between seasons in PCA, with a total of 83.83% of variance explained. These results indicate that environmental factors that vary seasonally may affect the antioxidant status of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On The Black Sea Surozhian

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caraivan, Glicherie; Corneliu, Cerchia

2016-04-01

Some Black Sea researchers still support the idea of no other connection to the Mediterranean Sea between LGM and Karangatian Stage (Riss - Wurm). We try to clarify the source of these disagreements. C14 AMS age data (HERAS Project) made on undisturbed samples from a new Mamaia drilling hole where compared with the classical Black Sea stratigraphic schemes. A first transgressive event (Zone D) is found between 38.00 - 20.20 m depth. Zone D4 shows a fairly rapid rise of sea level, about 10 m below the present one indicating an inner shelf marine polyhaline environment. AMS age data show 14C ages between 53690 - 47359 y (MIS 1), corresponding to the "Surozhian Beds" of Popov. The "beach rock" from Zone E marks the decrease of the sea level after the maximum reached in Zone D4. Zone E mollusc shells AMS data, indicate 14C ages of 48724 - 44604 y, suggesting a long-time reworked material from the previous D4 zone sediments, and represents the beginning of the "regressive Tarkankutian" sequence.The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) led to the retreat of the sea level down to about 100 m below the current one (27-17 ky BP), followed by an retreat of the shoreline to the present position. At the beginning of the Holocene - MIS 1 (8408-8132 cal. y BP), Black Sea brackish water level grew rapidly, up to -14 m below the present one (Zone F: 22, 57-20, 20 m). Zone F deposits could be correlated with the Bugazian strata. Then, a continuous rising of the Black Sea level is recorded up to a maximum of -2 m under the present one, about 6789 - 7063 cal. y BP, when a transgressive spurt ("Neolithic transgression") may have taken place. After that, given a weak Danubian sedimentary input, coastal erosion intensified. The coarse sandy sediments were reworked and pushed over the previous peat deposits, and suggest a classical "sedimentary regression", not a sea-level decrease. During the last 1.5 ky, sea level has risen towards the current one. Previous C14 dates from "Karangatian stratotypes", show ages between 27390 - 42120 y BP. Our AMS C14 data on Surozhian mollusk indicate ages between 47359 - 53690 cal. y BP. We argue that "Surozhian" is likely the classic "Karangatian" defined by Nevesskaia that does not correspond to the Riss-Wurm, but to the Middle Wurm instead. The generally accepted "Karangatian", placed in the Riss-Wurm interval is much older. Similarly, the Surozhian (transgressive) cannot be Tarhankutian (regressive). References Caraivan, G., 2010. Studiul sedimentologic al depozitelor de plajǎ si de selful intern al M\\varii Negre între Portița si Tuzla. [Sedimentological Study of Beach and Inner Shelf Romanian Black Sea Deposits]. Ex Ponto, Constanta. (In Romanian) Caraivan, G., Fulga, C., Opreanu, P., 2012. Upper Quaternary evolution of the Mamaia Lake area (Romanian Black Sea shore). Quaternary International 261: 14-20. Caraivan, G., Opreanu, P., Voinea, V., Pojar, I., Sava, T., Giosan, L. „Holocene landscape changes and human communities' migration in the western part of the Black Sea (Mamaia Lake area)", In: IGCP 610 Proceedings of the Third Plenary Conference, Astrakhan, Russia, 22-30 September 2015. Giosan L.et al, 2012. Early Anthropogenic Transformation of the Danube-Black Sea System. Sci Rep. 2012; 2:582 Nevesskaia, L.A. 1965. Pozdrecetverticinîe dvustvorcestîe molluski Cernogo Moria, ih sistematica i ekologhia, Trudî Pal. Inst., 105, Moskva. Shcherbakov, F.A., Koreneva, E.V., and Zabelina, E.K., 1977. Stratigrafiia pozdnechetvertichnykh otlozhenii Chernogo moria [Stratigraphy of the Late Quaternary deposits in the Black Sea]. In Pozdnechetvertichnaia istoriia i sedimentogenez okrainikh i vnutrennikh morei [Late-Quaternary History and Sedimentogenesis in Marginal and Inland Seas]. Nauka, Moscow, pp. 46-51. Yanko-Hombach, V.V., 2007. Controversy over Noah's Flood in the Black Sea: Geological and foraminiferal evidence from the shelf. In Yanko-Hombach, V., Gilbert, A.S., Panin, N., and Dolukanov, P.M. (eds.), [The Black Sea Flood Question: Changes in Coastline, Climate and Human Settlement]. Springer, Dordrecht, pp. 149-203. Semenenko, V. N.; Kovaliuh, N.N., 1973. Absoliutnîi vozrast verhnecertverticinîh otlojenii Azovo-Cernomorskogo basseina po dannîm radiouglerodnogo analiza, Gheologhiceskii jurnal, T 33, 6, 11-17. [Upper Quaternary sediments absolute radiocarbon age data from the Azovian - Black Sea Basin]. Journal of Geology,T 33, 6, 11-17.

Adaptation or Resistance: a classification of responses to sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper, J. A.

2016-02-01

Societal responses to sea level rise and associated coastal change are apparently diverse in nature and motivation. Most are commonly referred to as 'adaptation'. Based on a review of current practice, however, it is argued that many of these responses do not involve adaptation, but are rather resisting change. There are several instances where formerly adaptive initiatives involving human adaptability are being replaced by initiatives that resist change. A classification is presented that recognises a continuum of responses ranging from adaptation to resistance, depending upon the willingness to change human activities to accommodate environmental change. In many cases climate change adaptation resources are being used for projects that are purely resistant and which foreclose future adaptation options. It is argued that a more concise definition of adaptation is needed if coastal management is to move beyond the current position of holding the shoreline, other tah n in a few showcase examples.

Is the detection of accelerated sea level rise imminent?

DOE PAGES

Fasullo, J. T.; Nerem, R. S.; Hamlington, B.

2016-08-10

Global mean sea level rise estimated from satellite altimetry provides a strong constraint on climate variability and change and is expected to accelerate as the rates of both ocean warming and cryospheric mass loss increase over time. In stark contrast to this expectation however, current altimeter products show the rate of sea level rise to have decreased from the first to second decades of the altimeter era. Here, a combined analysis of altimeter data and specially designed climate model simulations shows the 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo to likely have masked the acceleration that would have otherwise occurred. This maskingmore » arose largely from a recovery in ocean heat content through the mid to late 1990 s subsequent to major heat content reductions in the years following the eruption. As a result, a consequence of this finding is that barring another major volcanic eruption, a detectable acceleration is likely to emerge from the noise of internal climate variability in the coming decade.« less

Comment on “On AGU's Position Statement, ‘Human Impacts on Climate’”

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Rob

2009-08-01

Regarding the Forum by Cyril Galvin (Eos, 89(46), 459, 2008), while I understand AGU's willingness to present both sides of the coin, as it were, I am disappointed that this Forum appeared in Eos. One major point in question is the assertion by Galvin that “nowhere on the sandy ocean shores of the world is there a beach whose erosion has been documented to be caused by sea level rise.” This point disregards the fact that coastal barrier systems have been moving landward for the last several thousand years, driven by rising sea level. Yes, the picture is complex, and yes, wave action and storms, in addition to constraints on sediment supply—many of them heavily influenced in the present day by societal actions—are also important: Some beaches will erode without rising sea level if they are starved of new sediment to replace that removed by wave-driven, alongshore currents, and it is of course the waves that move the sediment around.

Is the detection of accelerated sea level rise imminent?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fasullo, J. T.; Nerem, R. S.; Hamlington, B.

Global mean sea level rise estimated from satellite altimetry provides a strong constraint on climate variability and change and is expected to accelerate as the rates of both ocean warming and cryospheric mass loss increase over time. In stark contrast to this expectation however, current altimeter products show the rate of sea level rise to have decreased from the first to second decades of the altimeter era. Here, a combined analysis of altimeter data and specially designed climate model simulations shows the 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo to likely have masked the acceleration that would have otherwise occurred. This maskingmore » arose largely from a recovery in ocean heat content through the mid to late 1990 s subsequent to major heat content reductions in the years following the eruption. As a result, a consequence of this finding is that barring another major volcanic eruption, a detectable acceleration is likely to emerge from the noise of internal climate variability in the coming decade.« less

The influence of sea-level rise on fringing reef sediment dynamics: field observations and numerical modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storlazzi, Curt D.; Field, Michael E.; Elias, Edwin; Presto, M. Katherine

2011-01-01

While most climate projections suggest that sea level may rise on the order of 0.5-1.0 m by 2100, it is not clear how fluid flow and sediment transport on fringing reefs might change in response to this rapid sea-level rise. Field observations and numerical modeling suggest that an increase in water depth on the order of 0.5-1.0 m on a fringing reef flat would result in larger significant wave heights and wave-driven shear stresses, which, in turn, would result in an increase in both the size and quantity of sediment that can be resuspended from the seabed or eroded from coastal plain deposits. Greater wave- and wind-driven currents would develop on the reef flat with increasing water depth, increasing the offshore flux of water and sediment from the inner reef flat to the outer reef flat and fore reef where coral growth is typically greatest.

Global climate change and local land subsidence exacerbate inundation risk to the San Francisco Bay Area

PubMed Central

Shirzaei, Manoochehr; Bürgmann, Roland

2018-01-01

The current global projections of future sea level rise are the basis for developing inundation hazard maps. However, contributions from spatially variable coastal subsidence have generally not been considered in these projections. We use synthetic aperture radar interferometric measurements and global navigation satellite system data to show subsidence rates of less than 2 mm/year along most of the coastal areas along San Francisco Bay. However, rates exceed 10 mm/year in some areas underlain by compacting artificial landfill and Holocene mud deposits. The maps estimating 100-year inundation hazards solely based on the projection of sea level rise from various emission scenarios underestimate the area at risk of flooding by 3.7 to 90.9%, compared with revised maps that account for the contribution of local land subsidence. Given ongoing land subsidence, we project that an area of 125 to 429 km2 will be vulnerable to inundation, as opposed to 51 to 413 km2 considering sea level rise alone. PMID:29536042

Historical sea level data rescue to assess long-term sea level evolution: Saint-Nazaire observatory (Loire estuary, France) since 1863.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferret, Yann; Voineson, Guillaume; Pouvreau, Nicolas

2014-05-01

Nowadays, the study of the global sea level rise is a strong societal concern. The analysis of historical records of water level proves to be an ideal way to provide relevant arguments regarding the observed trends. In France, many systematic sea level observations have taken place since the mid-1800s. Despite this rich history, long sea level data sets digitally available are still scarce. Currently, only the time series of Brest, Marseille and recently the composite one of the Pertuis d'Antioche span periods longer than a century and are available to be taken into account in studies dealing with long term sea-level evolution. In this context, an important work of "data archaeology" is undertaken to rescue the numerous existing analog historical data that is part of the French scientific and cultural heritage. The present study is focused on the measurements carried out at the sea level observatory of Saint-Nazaire, located on the French Atlantic coast in the Loire estuary mouth area. Measurements were automatically performed with the use of float tide gauges from 1863 to 2007, but include some important gaps between 1920 and 1950. Since 2007, the Saint-Nazaire observatory is part of the French RONIM network operated by SHOM, and the old mechanical tide gauge has been superseded by a radar tide gauge (operated by "Grand Port Maritime" of Nantes-Saint-Nazaire). In total, the covered period is up to 150-year-long, including at least 125 years of continuous sea level measurements. With the reconstruction of this new data set, we aim at improving our knowledge on trends in sea level components on the Atlantic coast on large scale and on the coast vulnerability at more local scale. Moreover, because of the location of the station, it should be possible as well to study the influence of the Loire River on water level since the 19th century. It has been shown that the tidal range was strongly modified during the last century because of the anthropogenic influence along the river (dredging, coastal structures, etc.). This is particularly remarkable in upstream areas such as Nantes, but the impact in downstream locations such as Saint-Nazaire is still not completely quantified. As a first and primordial step, this study implies the inventory and the digitalization of existing ledgers and tidal charts. This time-demanding work induces to check the data quality and to make these data consistent over time in terms of vertical reference and time systems, which both evolved during the studied period. Preliminary analyses assess the high quality of the measurements. Once the final time-serie has been checked and rendered coherent, it will be made available in existing national databanks and websites: REFMAR for high-frequency data (hourly) and SONEL for the corresponding mean sea levels (daily, monthly and yearly).

A NOAA/NOS Sea Level Advisory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sweet, W.

2011-12-01

In order for coastal communities to realize current impacts and become resilient to future changes, sea level advisories/bulletins are necessary that systematically monitor and document non-tidal anomalies (residuals) and flood-watch (elevation) conditions. The need became apparent after an exceptional sea level anomaly along the U.S. East Coast in June - July of 2009 when higher than normal sea levels coincided with a perigean-spring tide and flooded many coastal regions. The event spurred numerous public inquiries to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) from coastal communities concerned because of the lack of any coastal storm signatures normally associated with such an anomaly. A subsequent NOAA report provided insight into some of the mechanisms involved in the event and methods for tracking their reoccurrences. NOAA/CO-OPS is the U.S. authority responsible for defining sea level datums and tracking their relative changes in support of marine navigation and national and state land-use boundaries. These efforts are supported by the National Water Level Observation Network (NWLON), whose long-term and widespread observations largely define a total water level measurement impacting a coastal community. NWLON time series provide estimates of local relative sea level trends, a product increasingly utilized by various stakeholders planning for the future. NWLON data also capture significant short-term changes and conveyance of high-water variations (from surge to seasonal scale) provides invaluable insight into inundation patterns ultimately needed for a more comprehensive planning guide. A NOAA/CO-OPS Sea Level Advisory Project will enhance high-water monitoring capabilities by: - Automatically detecting sea level anomalies and flood-watch occurrences - Seasonally calibrating the anomaly thresholds to a locality in terms of flood potential - Alerting for near-term superposition of non-tidal residuals and large tide-range changes (i.e., spring tides). - Identifying important regional physical forcing mechanisms (both meteorological and oceanographic) to help explain the conditions - Displaying near-real time and archived information to establish a clear and direct communication with a community in regards to its past, present and future flood patterns. An example is presented for Charleston, SC, an area with little remaining free board in terms of its downtown infrastructure. The National Weather Service (NWS) issues multiple flood watches for Charleston every year that largely result from astronomical (earth-sun-moon system) tide forcing alone and NOAA's Coastal Services Center (CSC) often receives inquiries regarding downtown flooding during sunny, nondescript days. This project will allow for a deeper appreciation of surge-to-seasonal patterns of variability and compliment a community's living memory of sea level elevations/impacts needed to motivate societal adaptation as sea levels rise. Coordination with NWS's local Weather Forecasting Offices (WFO) is planned and the project will expand to other incident-prone regions once demonstration is accepted.

Sea-level rise along the Emilia-Romagna coast (Northern Italy) in 2100: scenarios and impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perini, Luisa; Calabrese, Lorenzo; Luciani, Paolo; Olivieri, Marco; Galassi, Gaia; Spada, Giorgio

2017-12-01

As a consequence of climate change and land subsidence, coastal zones are directly impacted by sea-level rise. In some particular areas, the effects on the ecosystem and urbanisation are particularly enhanced. We focus on the Emilia-Romagna (E-R) coastal plain in Northern Italy, bounded by the Po river mouth to the north and by the Apennines to the south. The plain is ˜ 130 km long and is characterised by wide areas below mean sea level, in part made up of reclaimed wetlands. In this context, several morphodynamic factors make the shore and back shore unstable. During next decades, the combined effects of land subsidence and of the sea-level rise as a result of climate change are expected to enhance the shoreline instability, leading to further retreat. The consequent loss of beaches would impact the economy of the region, which is tightly connected with tourism infrastructures. Furthermore, the loss of wetlands and dunes would threaten the ecosystem, which is crucial for the preservation of life and the environment. These specific conditions show the importance of a precise definition of the possible local impacts of the ongoing and future climate variations. The aim of this work is the characterisation of vulnerability in different sectors of the coastal plain and the recognition of the areas in which human intervention is urgently required. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) sea-level scenarios are merged with new high-resolution terrain models, current data for local subsidence and predictions of the flooding model in_CoastFlood in order to develop different scenarios for the impact of sea-level rise projected to year 2100. First, the potential land loss due to the combined effect of subsidence and sea-level rise is extrapolated. Second, the increase in floodable areas as a result of storm surges is quantitatively determined. The results are expected to support the regional mitigation and adaptation strategies designed in response to climate change.

Looking Back to the Future: Insight on Anthropocene beaches from Holocene and Pleistocene barriers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dougherty, A. J.; Choi, J. H.; Turney, C. S.; Dosseto, A.

2017-12-01

`Super' storms and accelerated rates of sea-level rise are forecast in the Anthropocene, but how coasts will respond (or even if they have started to be impacted) remain uncertain. The onset of this new anthropogenic age is considered mid-1900s when multiple indices including sea level exceed previous Holocene measurements. Centuries of sea surface elevation data, used to project an increase of up to 2m by 2100, show that the current rise started 200 years ago. Similar records of storms or shoreline evolution over these centennial time-scales do not exist. With empirical studies of coastal morphodynamics concentrated during decades of accelerated sea-level rise, present-day beaches can be considered Anthropocene features. To determine the future of vulnerable sandy shorelines, climate change scenarios of increased sea level and storm intensity have been combined with computer models integrating short-term process data with large-scale coastal evolution. The uncertainty in these models can be reduced with longer sea level and storm records as well as filling the gap between detailed beach profile/wave buoy data and generalized barrier stratigraphy. High-resolution chronostratigraphic models necessary to achieve this can be constructed using Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR), Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR), and Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL). Combined GPR, OSL and LiDAR (GOaL) on prograded barriers enables analysis of shorelines back through time, by comparing behaviour since the onset of anthropogenic global warming to that in the preceding millennia. Extracting a record of coastal evolution prior to and since seas began to rise two centuries ago offers the opportunity to detect any difference indicating if/how shorelines have responded. In double barrier systems with composite Holocene and Pleistocene components GOaL can extend the Anthropocene record back to when seas were known to have been higher than today. To demonstrate the potential of GOaL, data collected over the past twenty years from North America and the South Pacific are presented; including some classic prograded barriers studied initially in the 1960s and extensively the 1980s. The resulting records of sea level, storms and sediment supply provide insight on, and input for modelling of, climate change and coastal evolution.

GEOdetic Data assimilation and EStimation of references for climate change InvEstigation. An overall presentation of the French GEODESIE project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nahmani, S.; Coulot, D.; Biancale, R.; Bizouard, C.; Bonnefond, P.; Bouquillon, S.; Collilieux, X.; Deleflie, F.; Garayt, B.; Lambert, S. B.; Laurent-Varin, S.; Marty, J. C.; Mercier, F.; Metivier, L.; Meyssignac, B.; Pollet, A.; Rebischung, P.; Reinquin, F.; Richard, J. Y.; Tertre, F.; Woppelmann, G.

2017-12-01

Many major indicators of climate change are monitored with space observations. This monitoring is highly dependent on references that only geodesy can provide. The current accuracy of these references does not permit to fully support the challenges that the constantly evolving Earth system gives rise to, and can consequently limit the accuracy of these indicators. Thus, in the framework of the GGOS, stringent requirements are fixed to the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) for the next decade: an accuracy at the level of 1 mm and a stability at the level of 0.1 mm/yr. This means an improvement of the current quality of ITRF by a factor of 5-10. Improving the quality of the geodetic references is an issue which requires a thorough reassessment of the methodologies involved. The most relevant and promising method to improve this quality is the direct combination of the space-geodetic measurements used to compute the official references of the IERS. The GEODESIE project aims at (i) determining highly-accurate global and consistent references and (ii) providing the geophysical and climate research communities with these references, for a better estimation of geocentric sea level rise, ice mass balance and on-going climate changes. Time series of sea levels computed from altimetric data and tide gauge records with these references will also be provided. The geodetic references will be essential bases for Earth's observation and monitoring to support the challenges of the century. The geocentric time series of sea levels will permit to better apprehend (i) the drivers of the global mean sea level rise and of regional variations of sea level and (ii) the contribution of the global climate change induced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions to these drivers. All the results and computation and quality assessment reports will be available at geodesie_anr.ign.fr.This project, supported by the French Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) for the period 2017-2020, will be an unprecedented opportunity to provide the French Groupe de Recherche de Géodésie Spatiale (GRGS) with complete simulation and data processing capabilities to prepare the future arrival of space missions such as the European Geodetic Reference Antenna in SPace (E-GRASP) and to significantly contribute to the GGOS with accurate references.

On the Application of Science Systems Engineering and Uncertainty Quantification for Ice Sheet Science and Sea Level Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne; Boening, Carmen; Larour, Eric; Limonadi, Daniel; Schodlok, Michael; Seroussi, Helene; Watkins, Michael

2017-04-01

Research and development activities at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) currently support the creation of a framework to formally evaluate the observational needs within earth system science. One of the pilot projects of this effort aims to quantify uncertainties in global mean sea level rise projections, due to contributions from the continental ice sheets. Here, we take advantage of established uncertainty quantification tools embedded within the JPL-University of California at Irvine Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). We conduct sensitivity and Monte-Carlo style sampling experiments on forward simulations of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. By varying internal parameters and boundary conditions of the system over both extreme and credible worst-case ranges, we assess the impact of the different parameter ranges on century-scale sea level rise projections. The results inform efforts to a) isolate the processes and inputs that are most responsible for determining ice sheet contribution to sea level; b) redefine uncertainty brackets for century-scale projections; and c) provide a prioritized list of measurements, along with quantitative information on spatial and temporal resolution, required for reducing uncertainty in future sea level rise projections. Results indicate that ice sheet mass loss is dependent on the spatial resolution of key boundary conditions - such as bedrock topography and melt rates at the ice-ocean interface. This work is performed at and supported by the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Supercomputing time is also supported through a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere program.

Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Sea-Level over the Next Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aschwanden, A.; Fahnestock, M. A.; Truffer, M.

2017-12-01

The contribution of Greenland's outlet glaciers to sea-level remains a wild card in global sea level predictions but progress in mapping ice thickness combined with high-resolution flow modeling now allow to revisit questions about the long-term stability of the ice sheet. Here we present the first outlet glacier resolving assessment of Greenland's contribution to sea-level over the next millennium. We find that increased ice discharge resulting from acceleration of outlet glaciers due to ice melt at tidewater glacier margins dominates mass loss during the 21st century. However, as the ice sheet surfaces lowers, surface melt increases and over the course of the millennium, the relative contribution of ice discharge to total mass loss decreases. By the end of the 22nd century, most outlet glaciers in the north-west will have retreated out of tide-water, while in south-east enhanced precipitation partially offsets high ice discharge. The outlet glaciers of the central west coast, most notably Jakobshavn Isbrae, play a key role in dynamic mass loss due to their submarine connection to the interior reservoir. We find that coast-ward advection of cold ice from the interior counteracts outlet glacier acceleration by increasing ice viscosity and thereby reducing vertical shearing. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the ice margin in north and north-east Greenland retreats far enough to reach the vast interior where the subglacial topography is below sea level. This leads to a dramatic retreat in the second part of the millenium, and Greenland could shrink to 10% of its current volume by the end of the millennium.

Black Sea Becomes Turquoise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

This true-color image shows bright, turquoise-colored swirls across the surface of the Black Sea, signifying the presence of a large phytoplankton bloom. Scientists have observed similar blooms recurring annually, roughly this same time of year. The Sea of Azov, which is the smaller body of water located just north of the Black Sea in this image, also shows a high level of color variance. The brownish pixels in the Azov are probably due to sediments carried in from high waters and snowmelt from upstream. This scene was acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, flying aboard NASA's Terra satellite, on May 14, 2002. According to the Black Sea Environment Programme's Marine Hydrophysical Institute, the Black Sea is ?one of the marine areas of the world most damaged by human activities.? The coastal zone around these Eastern European inland water bodies is densely populated'supporting a permanent population of roughly 16 million people and another 4 million tourists each year. Six countries border with the Black Sea, including Ukraine to the north, Russia and Georgia to the east, Turkey to the south, and Bulgaria and Romania to the west. Because it is isolated from the world's oceans, and because there is an extensive drainage network of rivers that empty into it, the Black Sea has a unique and delicate water balance which is very important for supporting its marine ecosystem. Of particular concern to scientists is the salinity, water level, and nutrient levels of the Black Sea's waters, all of which are, unfortunately, being impacted by human activities. Within the last three decades the combination of increased nutrient loads from human sources together with pollution and over-harvesting of fisheries has resulted in a sharp decline in water quality. Scientists from each of the Black Sea's bordering nations are currently working together to study the issues and formulate a joint, international strategy for saving this unique marine ecosystem. Working with a spirit of placing more emphasis on joint ownership of the Black Sea's resources, and less emphasis on blame, it is hoped that the cooperating countries can strike an effective balance between both enjoying and preserving the Black Sea.

Coastal Erosion in a Coral Reef Island, Taiping Island, South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, S.; Ma, G.; Liang, M.; Chu, J.

2011-12-01

Reef flats surrounding islands are known to dissipate much offshore wave energy, and thereby protect beaches from erosion. Taiping Island, the largest coral reef islands of the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, has been observed the shorelines erosion on the southwest coast over past decades. It is recognized that wave and current processes across coral reefs affect reef-island development and morphology. A number of studies suggest effects of climate changes, sea-level rise and storm-intensity increase, determine the magnitude of wave energy on the reef platform and will likely intensify the erosion. The topographical change in the local region, the southwest reef flat was dredged a channel for navigation, may be a significant factor in influencing current characteristics. Numerical modeling is used to describe both hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics because there are no field measurements available around the reef flat. Field observations off the island conducted in August 2004 and November 2005 provides offshore wave characteristics of the predominant wind seasons. Numerical simulations perform the spatial and temporal variation of waves and current patterns and coastal erosion potential on the reef platform.

Absolute Sea-level Changes Derived from Integrated Geodetic Datasets (1955-2016) in the Caribbean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, L.; Wang, G.; Liu, H.

2017-12-01

Rising sea level has important direct impacts on coastal and island regions such as the Caribbean where the influence of sea-level rise is becoming more apparent. The Caribbean Sea is a semi-enclosed sea adjacent to the landmasses of South and Central America to the south and west, and the Greater Antilles and the Lesser Antilles separate it from the Atlantic Ocean to the north and east. The work focus on studying the relative and absolute sea-level changes by integrating tide gauge, GPS, and satellite altimetry datasets (1955-2016) within the Caribbean Sea. Further, the two main components of absolute sea-level change, ocean mass and steric sea-level changes, are respectively studied using GRACE, temperature, and salinity datasets (1955-2016). According to the analysis conducted, the sea-level change rates have considerable temporal and spatial variations, and estimates may be subject to the techniques used and observation periods. The average absolute sea-level rise rate is 1.8±0.3 mm/year for the period from 1955 to 2015 according to the integrated tide gauge and GPS observations; the average absolute sea-level rise rate is 3.5±0.6 mm/year for the period from 1993 to 2016 according to the satellite altimetry observations. This study shows that the absolute sea-level change budget in the Caribbean Sea is closed in the periods from 1955 to 2016, in which ocean mass change dominates the absolute sea-level rise. The absolute sea-level change budget is also closed in the periods from 2004 to 2016, in which steric sea-level rise dominates the absolute sea-level rise.

The inland boundary layer at low latitudes: II Sea-breeze influences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garratt, J. R.; Physick, W. L.

1985-11-01

Two-dimensional mesoscale model results support the claim of evening sea-breeze activity at Daly Waters, 280 km inland from the coast in northern Australia, the site of the Koorin boundary-layer experiment. The sea breeze occurs in conditions of strong onshore and alongshore geostrophic winds, not normally associated with such activity. It manifests itself at Daly Waters and in the model as a cooling in a layer 500 1000 m deep, as an associated surface pressure jump, as strong backing of the wind and, when an offshore low-level wind is present, as a collapse in the inland nocturnal jet. Both observational analysis and model results illustrate the rotational aspects of the deeply penetrating sea breeze; in our analysis this is represented in terms of a surge vector — the vector difference between the post- and pre-frontal low-level winds. There is further evidence to support earlier work that the sea breeze during the afternoon and well into the night — at least for these low-latitude experiments — behaves in many ways as an atmospheric gravity current, and that inland penetrations up to 500 km occur.

What Happened to Gray Whales during the Pleistocene? The Ecological Impact of Sea-Level Change on Benthic Feeding Areas in the North Pacific Ocean

PubMed Central

Pyenson, Nicholas D.; Lindberg, David R.

2011-01-01

Background Gray whales (Eschrichtius robustus) undertake long migrations, from Baja California to Alaska, to feed on seasonally productive benthos of the Bering and Chukchi seas. The invertebrates that form their primary prey are restricted to shallow water environments, but global sea-level changes during the Pleistocene eliminated or reduced this critical habitat multiple times. Because the fossil record of gray whales is coincident with the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation, gray whales survived these massive changes to their feeding habitat, but it is unclear how. Methodology/Principal Findings We reconstructed gray whale carrying capacity fluctuations during the past 120,000 years by quantifying gray whale feeding habitat availability using bathymetric data for the North Pacific Ocean, constrained by their maximum diving depth. We calculated carrying capacity based on modern estimates of metabolic demand, prey availability, and feeding duration; we also constrained our estimates to reflect current population size and account for glaciated and non-glaciated areas in the North Pacific. Our results show that key feeding areas eliminated by sea-level lowstands were not replaced by commensurate areas. Our reconstructions show that such reductions affected carrying capacity, and harmonic means of these fluctuations do not differ dramatically from genetic estimates of carrying capacity. Conclusions/Significance Assuming current carrying capacity estimates, Pleistocene glacial maxima may have created multiple, weak genetic bottlenecks, although the current temporal resolution of genetic datasets does not test for such signals. Our results do not, however, falsify molecular estimates of pre-whaling population size because those abundances would have been sufficient to survive the loss of major benthic feeding areas (i.e., the majority of the Bering Shelf) during glacial maxima. We propose that gray whales survived the disappearance of their primary feeding ground by employing generalist filter-feeding modes, similar to the resident gray whales found between northern Washington State and Vancouver Island. PMID:21754984

A numerical study on the evolution of the wind-driven circulation in the Yellow Sea in winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tak, Y. J.; Cho, Y. K.

2016-02-01

The Yellow Sea is a semi-enclosed marginal sea and its circulation in winter is affected by the winter monsoon. In previous studies, it was found that the circulation of the Yellow Sea in winter consists of downwind and upwind currents. Downwind currents consisting of the Korean Coast Current (KCC) and the Chinese Coast Current (CCC) flow along the boundary of the Yellow Sea, whereas an upwind current consisting of the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) flows along the central trough of the Yellow Sea. Although some characteristics of such currents and the driving forces of the circulation have been studied by many scientists, the evolution of these currents has received little attention. So, the wind-driven circulation in the Yellow Sea was simulated to explain the changing pattern of these currents in winter and their evolutions were explored by the time-lagged correlation for winter season. According to the lagged correlation, downwind currents occurred in surface layer without a time lag. These downwind currents were more sensitive in the Chinese coast than that in the Korean coast. There is one day time-lag between the wind and the upwind flow developing in the Yellow Sea trough. The YSWC was shifted to the west of the trough after two days and then the KCC strengthened at the same time. It implied the westward shift of the YSWC and the clockwise circulation is developed, two days after the wind blows. The clockwise circulation was one of the reasons that the KCC was stronger than the CCC although the CCC was more sensitive to the wind than the KCC. The clockwise circulation also made the YSWC stronger in the inner YS than it at the entrance of the YS.

Lateral and vertical distribution of downstream migrating juvenile sea lamprey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sotola, V. Alex; Miehls, Scott M.; Simard, Lee G.; Marsden, J. Ellen

2018-01-01

Sea lamprey is considered an invasive and nuisance species in the Laurentian Great Lakes, Lake Champlain, and the Finger Lakes of New York and is a major focus of control efforts. Currently, management practices focus on limiting the area of infestation using barriers to block migratory adults, and lampricides to kill ammocoetes in infested tributaries. No control efforts currently target the downstream-migrating post-metamorphic life stage which could provide another management opportunity. In order to apply control methods to this life stage, a better understanding of their downstream movement patterns is needed. To quantify spatial distribution of downstream migrants, we deployed fyke and drift nets laterally and vertically across the stream channel in two tributaries of Lake Champlain. Sea lamprey was not randomly distributed across the stream width and lateral distribution showed a significant association with discharge. Results indicated that juvenile sea lamprey is most likely to be present in the thalweg and at midwater depths of the stream channel. Further, a majority of the catch occurred during high flow events, suggesting an increase in downstream movement activity when water levels are higher than base flow. Discharge and flow are strong predictors of the distribution of out-migrating sea lamprey, thus managers will need to either target capture efforts in high discharge areas of streams or develop means to guide sea lamprey away from these areas.

Projected status of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) in the twenty-first century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jay, Chadwick V.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Douglas, David C.

2011-01-01

Extensive and rapid losses of sea ice in the Arctic have raised conservation concerns for the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens), a large pinniped inhabiting arctic and subarctic continental shelf waters of the Chukchi and Bering seas. We developed a Bayesian network model to integrate potential effects of changing environmental conditions and anthropogenic stressors on the future status of the Pacific walrus population at four periods through the twenty-first century. The model framework allowed for inclusion of various sources and levels of knowledge, and representation of structural and parameter uncertainties. Walrus outcome probabilities through the century reflected a clear trend of worsening conditions for the subspecies. From the current observation period to the end of century, the greatest change in walrus outcome probabilities was a progressive decrease in the outcome state of robust and a concomitant increase in the outcome state of vulnerable. The probabilities of rare and extirpated states each progressively increased but remained <10% through the end of the century. The summed probabilities of vulnerable, rare, and extirpated (P(v,r,e)) increased from a current level of 10% in 2004 to 22% by 2050 and 40% by 2095. The degree of uncertainty in walrus outcomes increased monotonically over future periods. In the model, sea ice habitat (particularly for summer/fall) and harvest levels had the greatest influence on future population outcomes. Other potential stressors had much smaller influences on walrus outcomes, mostly because of uncertainty in their future states and our current poor understanding of their mechanistic influence on walrus abundance.

Regional sea level projections with observed gauge, altimeter and reconstructed data along China coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, L.; Shi, H.; Zhang, S.

2017-12-01

Acting as the typical shelf seas in northwest Pacific Ocean, regional sea level along China coasts exhibits complicated and multiscale spatial-temporal characteristics under circumstance of global change. In this paper, sea level variability is investigated with tide gauges records, satellite altimetry data, reconstructed sea surface height, and CMIP simulation fields. Sea level exhibits the interannual variability imposing on a remarkable sea level rising in the China seas and coastal region, although its seasonal signals are significant as the results of global ocean. Sea level exhibits faster rising rate during the satellite altimetry era, nearly twice to the rate during the last sixty years. AVISO data and reconstructed sea surface heights illustrate good correlation coefficient, more than 0.8. Interannual sea level variation is mainly modulated by the low-frequency variability of wind fields over northern Pacific Ocean by local and remote processes. Meanwhile sea level varies obviously by the transport fluctuation and bimodality path of Kuroshio. Its variability possibly linked to internal variability of the ocean-atmosphere system influenced by ENSO oscillation. China Sea level have been rising during the 20th century, and are projected to continue to rise during this century. Sea level can reach the highest extreme level in latter half of 21st century. Modeled sea level including regional sea level projection combined with the IPCC climate scenarios play a significant role on coastal storm surge evolution. The vulnerable regions along the ECS coast will suffer from the increasing storm damage with sea level variations.

A benchmark study of the sea-level equation in GIA modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinec, Zdenek; Klemann, Volker; van der Wal, Wouter; Riva, Riccardo; Spada, Giorgio; Simon, Karen; Blank, Bas; Sun, Yu; Melini, Daniele; James, Tom; Bradley, Sarah

2017-04-01

The sea-level load in glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is described by the so called sea-level equation (SLE), which represents the mass redistribution between ice sheets and oceans on a deforming earth. Various levels of complexity of SLE have been proposed in the past, ranging from a simple mean global sea level (the so-called eustatic sea level) to the load with a deforming ocean bottom, migrating coastlines and a changing shape of the geoid. Several approaches to solve the SLE have been derived, from purely analytical formulations to fully numerical methods. Despite various teams independently investigating GIA, there has been no systematic intercomparison amongst the solvers through which the methods may be validated. The goal of this paper is to present a series of benchmark experiments designed for testing and comparing numerical implementations of the SLE. Our approach starts with simple load cases even though the benchmark will not result in GIA predictions for a realistic loading scenario. In the longer term we aim for a benchmark with a realistic loading scenario, and also for benchmark solutions with rotational feedback. The current benchmark uses an earth model for which Love numbers have been computed and benchmarked in Spada et al (2011). In spite of the significant differences in the numerical methods employed, the test computations performed so far show a satisfactory agreement between the results provided by the participants. The differences found can often be attributed to the different approximations inherent to the various algorithms. Literature G. Spada, V. R. Barletta, V. Klemann, R. E. M. Riva, Z. Martinec, P. Gasperini, B. Lund, D. Wolf, L. L. A. Vermeersen, and M. A. King, 2011. A benchmark study for glacial isostatic adjustment codes. Geophys. J. Int. 185: 106-132 doi:10.1111/j.1365-

Plio-Pleistocene sea level and temperature fluctuations in the northwestern Pacific promoted speciation in the globally-distributed flathead mullet Mugil cephalus

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The study of speciation in the marine realm is challenging because of the apparent absence of physical barriers to dispersal, which are one of the main drivers of genetic diversity. Although phylogeographic studies using mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) information often reveal significant genetic heterogeneity within marine species, the evolutionary significance of such diversity is difficult to interpret with these markers. In the northwestern (NW) Pacific, several studies have emphasised the potential importance of sea-level regression during the most recent glaciations as a driver of genetic diversity in marine species. These studies have failed, however, to determine whether the period of isolation was long enough for divergence to attain speciation. Among these marine species, the cosmopolitan estuarine-dependent fish Mugil cephalus represents an interesting case study. Several divergent allopatric mtDNA lineages have been described in this species worldwide, and three occur in sympatry in the NW Pacific. Results Ten nuclear microsatellites were surveyed to estimate the level of genetic isolation of these lineages and determine the role of sea-level fluctuation in the evolution of NW Pacific M. cephalus. Three cryptic species of M. cephalus were identified within this region (NWP1, 2 and 3) using an assignment test on the microsatellite data. Each species corresponds with one of the three mtDNA lineages in the COI phylogenetic tree. NWP3 is the most divergent species, with a distribution range that suggests tropical affinities, while NWP1, with a northward distribution from Taiwan to Russia, is a temperate species. NWP2 is distributed along the warm Kuroshio Current. The divergence of NWP1 from NWP2 dates back to the Pleistocene epoch and probably corresponds to the separation of the Japan and China Seas when sea levels dropped. Despite their subsequent range expansion since this period of glaciation, no gene flow was observed among these three lineages, indicating that speciation has been achieved. Conclusions This study successfully identified three cryptic species in M. cephalus inhabiting the NW Pacific, using a combination of microsatellites and mitochondrial genetic markers. The current genetic architecture of the M. cephalus species complex in the NW Pacific is the result of a complex interaction of contemporary processes and historical events. Sea level and temperature fluctuations during Plio-Pleistocene epochs probably played a major role in creating the marine species diversity of the NW Pacific that is found today. PMID:21450111

Bridging groundwater models and decision support with a Bayesian network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fienen, Michael N.; Masterson, John P.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Thieler, E. Robert

2013-01-01

Resource managers need to make decisions to plan for future environmental conditions, particularly sea level rise, in the face of substantial uncertainty. Many interacting processes factor in to the decisions they face. Advances in process models and the quantification of uncertainty have made models a valuable tool for this purpose. Long-simulation runtimes and, often, numerical instability make linking process models impractical in many cases. A method for emulating the important connections between model input and forecasts, while propagating uncertainty, has the potential to provide a bridge between complicated numerical process models and the efficiency and stability needed for decision making. We explore this using a Bayesian network (BN) to emulate a groundwater flow model. We expand on previous approaches to validating a BN by calculating forecasting skill using cross validation of a groundwater model of Assateague Island in Virginia and Maryland, USA. This BN emulation was shown to capture the important groundwater-flow characteristics and uncertainty of the groundwater system because of its connection to island morphology and sea level. Forecast power metrics associated with the validation of multiple alternative BN designs guided the selection of an optimal level of BN complexity. Assateague island is an ideal test case for exploring a forecasting tool based on current conditions because the unique hydrogeomorphological variability of the island includes a range of settings indicative of past, current, and future conditions. The resulting BN is a valuable tool for exploring the response of groundwater conditions to sea level rise in decision support.

Benchmarking and testing the "Sea Level Equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spada, G.; Barletta, V. R.; Klemann, V.; van der Wal, W.; James, T. S.; Simon, K.; Riva, R. E. M.; Martinec, Z.; Gasperini, P.; Lund, B.; Wolf, D.; Vermeersen, L. L. A.; King, M. A.

2012-04-01

The study of the process of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) and of the consequent sea level variations is gaining an increasingly important role within the geophysical community. Understanding the response of the Earth to the waxing and waning ice sheets is crucial in various contexts, ranging from the interpretation of modern satellite geodetic measurements to the projections of future sea level trends in response to climate change. All the processes accompanying GIA can be described solving the so-called Sea Level Equation (SLE), an integral equation that accounts for the interactions between the ice sheets, the solid Earth, and the oceans. Modern approaches to the SLE are based on various techniques that range from purely analytical formulations to fully numerical methods. Despite various teams independently investigating GIA, we do not have a suitably large set of agreed numerical results through which the methods may be validated. Following the example of the mantle convection community and our recent successful Benchmark for Post Glacial Rebound codes (Spada et al., 2011, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.04952.x), here we present the results of a benchmark study of independently developed codes designed to solve the SLE. This study has taken place within a collaboration facilitated through the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action ES0701. The tests involve predictions of past and current sea level variations, and 3D deformations of the Earth surface. In spite of the signi?cant differences in the numerical methods employed, the test computations performed so far show a satisfactory agreement between the results provided by the participants. The differences found, which can be often attributed to the different numerical algorithms employed within the community, help to constrain the intrinsic errors in model predictions. These are of fundamental importance for a correct interpretation of the geodetic variations observed today, and particularly for the evaluation of climate-driven sea level variations.

Analysis of Sea Level Rise in Action

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, K. M.; Huang, T.; Quach, N. T.; Boening, C.

2016-12-01

NASA's Sea Level Change Portal provides scientists and the general public with "one-stop" source for current sea level change information and data. Sea Level Rise research is a multidisciplinary research and in order to understand its causes, scientists must be able to access different measurements and to be able to compare them. The portal includes an interactive tool, called the Data Analysis Tool (DAT), for accessing, visualizing, and analyzing observations and models relevant to the study of Sea Level Rise. Using NEXUS, an open source, big data analytic technology developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the DAT is able provide user on-the-fly data analysis on all relevant parameters. DAT is composed of three major components: A dedicated instance of OnEarth (a WMTS service), NEXUS deep data analytic platform, and the JPL Common Mapping Client (CMC) for web browser based user interface (UI). Utilizing the global imagery, a user is capable of browsing the data in a visual manner and isolate areas of interest for further study. The interfaces "Analysis" tool provides tools for area or point selection, single and/or comparative dataset selection, and a range of options, algorithms, and plotting. This analysis component utilizes the Nexus cloud computing platform to provide on-demand processing of the data within the user-selected parameters and immediate display of the results. A RESTful web API is exposed for users comfortable with other interfaces and who may want to take advantage of the cloud computing capabilities. This talk discuss how DAT enables on-the-fly sea level research. The talk will introduce the DAT with an end-to-end tour of the tool with exploration and animating of available imagery, a demonstration of comparative analysis and plotting, and how to share and export data along with images for use in publications/presentations. The session will cover what kind of data is available, what kind of analysis is possible, and what are the outputs.

Sea-based JSOTFs: Considerations for the Operational Planner

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-15

the distinct requirements of the GCE hitting the beach. An equal level of specialization regarding special operations extends to the various...will discuss some of the operational level advantages and challenges of this novel construct and will proffer suggestions regarding how current...This paper will discuss some of the operational level advantages and challenges of this novel construct and will proffer suggestions regarding how

Concurrent environmental stressors and jellyfish stings impair caged European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) physiological performances

PubMed Central

Bosch-Belmar, Mar; Giomi, Folco; Rinaldi, Alessandro; Mandich, Alberta; Fuentes, Verónica; Mirto, Simone; Sarà, Gianluca; Piraino, Stefano

2016-01-01

The increasing frequency of jellyfish outbreaks in coastal areas has led to multiple ecological and socio-economic issues, including mass mortalities of farmed fish. We investigated the sensitivity of the European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax), a widely cultured fish in the Mediterranean Sea, to the combined stressors of temperature, hypoxia and stings from the jellyfish Pelagia noctiluca, through measurement of oxygen consumption rates (MO2), critical oxygen levels (PO2crit), and histological analysis of tissue damage. Higher levels of MO2, PO2crit and gill damage in treated fish demonstrated that the synergy of environmental and biotic stressors dramatically impair farmed fish metabolic performances and increase their health vulnerability. As a corollary, in the current scenario of ocean warming, these findings suggest that the combined effects of recurrent hypoxic events and jellyfish blooms in coastal areas might also threaten wild fish populations. PMID:27301314

Wind-driven export of Weddell Sea slope water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meijers, A. J. S.; Meredith, M. P.; Abrahamsen, E. P.; Morales Maqueda, M. A.; Jones, D. C.; Naveira Garabato, A. C.

2016-10-01

The export of waters from the Weddell Gyre to lower latitudes is an integral component of the southern subpolar contribution to the three-dimensional oceanic circulation. Here we use more than 20 years of repeat hydrographic data on the continental slope on the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula and 5 years of bottom lander data on the slope at 1000 m to show the intermittent presence of a relatively cold, fresh, westward flowing current. This is often bottom-intensified between 600 and 2000 dbar with velocities of over 20 cm s-1, transporting an average of 1.5 ± 1.5 Sv. By comparison with hydrography on the continental slope within the Weddell Sea and modeled tracer release experiments we show that this slope current is an extension of the Antarctic Slope Current that has crossed the South Scotia Ridge west of Orkney Plateau. On monthly to interannual time scales the density of the slope current is negatively correlated (r > 0.6 with a significance of over 95%) with eastward wind stress over the northern Weddell Sea, but lagging it by 6-13 months. This relationship holds in both the high temporal resolution bottom lander time series and the 20+ year annual hydrographic occupations and agrees with Weddell Sea export variability observed further east. We compare several alternative hypotheses for this wind stress/export relationship and find that it is most consistent with wind-driven acceleration of the gyre boundary current, possibly modulated by eddy dynamics, and represents a mechanism by which climatic perturbations can be rapidly transmitted as fluctuations in the supply of intermediate-level waters to lower latitudes.

Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Eddy Field and Surface Circulation in the Gulf of Aden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al Saafani, M. A.; Shenoi, S. S. C.

2006-07-01

The circulation in the Gulf of Aden is inferred from three different data sets: h istorical sh ip drifts , hydrography , and satellite altimeter derived sea level (Topex/Poseidon, Jason and ERS) . The circulation in th is semi-enclosed basin is marked with strong seasonality with reversals in the direction of flows twice a year follow ing the reversal in mon soonal winds. During the win ter mon soon (November - February) there is an inflow from Arabian Sea; an extension of Arabian Coastal Current (ACC) . During sou thwest mon soon (June - August) the flow is generally towards east especially along the northern coast of Gulf of Aden. The geostrophic currents also show that the circulation in the gulf is embedded with mesoscale eddies. These westward propagating eddies appear to enter the Gulf of Aden from the western Arabian Sea in win ter. The relative contribu tion of mesoscale eddies to the circulation in the gulf were estimated using altimeter derived Sea level anomaly (SLA) for the years 1993 to 2003 . The effect of these mesoscale eddies extend over the entire water colu mn . The propagation speeds, of these eddies, estimated using weekly spaced altimeter derived SLA (2002 - 2003) is ~ 4 .0 - 5 .3 cm s . The sum of the speeds of second mode Ro ssby wave and the mean current (4.8 cm s ) matches with the propagation speeds of eddies estimated using SLA . Hence, second mode baroclin ic Rossby waves appear to be responsib le for the westward propagation of eddies in the Gulf of Aden. The presence of these eddies in the temperaturesalin ity climato logy confirms that they are no t transient features.

Correlation of sea level falls interpreted from atoll stratigraphy with turbidites in adjacent basins

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lincoln, J.M.

Past sea levels can be derived from any atoll subsurface sediments deposited at or near sea level by determining the ages of deposition and correcting the present depths to the sediments for subsidence of the underlying edifice since the times of deposition. A sea level curve constructed by this method consists of discontinuous segments, each corresponding to a period of rising relative sea level and deposition of a discrete sedimentary package. Discontinuities in the sea level curve derived by this method correspond to relative sea level falls and stratigraphic hiatuses in the atoll subsurface. During intervals of relative sea levelmore » fall an atoll emerges to become a high limestone island. Sea level may fluctuate several times during a period of atoll emergence to become a high limestone island. Sea level may fluctuate several times during a period of atoll emergence without depositing sediments on top of the atoll. Furthermore, subaerial erosion may remove a substantial part of the depositional record of previous sea level fluctuations. For these reasons the authors must look to the adjacent basins to complement the incomplete record of sea level change recorded beneath atolls. During lowstands of sea level, faunas originally deposited near sea level on an atoll may be eroded and redeposited as turbidites in deep adjacent basins. Three such turbidites penetrated during deep-sea drilling at Sites 462 and 315 in the central Pacific correlate well with a late Tertiary sea level curve based on biostratigraphic ages and {sup 87}Sr/{sup 86}Sr chronostratigraphy for core from Enewetak Atoll in the northern Marshall Islands. Further drilling of the archipelagic aprons adjacent to atolls will improve the sea level history that may be inferred from atoll stratigraphy.« less

Can salt marshes survive sea level rise ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tambroni, N.; Seminara, G.

2008-12-01

Stability of salt marshes is a very delicate issue depending on the subtle interplay among hydrodynamics, morphodynamics and ecology. In fact, the elevation of the marsh platform depends essentially on three effects: i) the production of soil associated with sediments resuspended by tidal currents and wind waves in the adjacent tidal flats, advected to the marsh and settling therein; ii) production of organic sediments by the salt marsh vegetation; iii) soil 'loss' driven by sea level rise and subsidence. In order to gain insight into the mechanics of the process, we consider a schematic configuration consisting of a salt marsh located at the landward end of a tidal channel connected at the upstream end with a tidal sea, under different scenarios of sea level rise. We extend the simple 1D model for the morphodynamic evolution of a tidal channel formulated by Lanzoni and Seminara (2002, Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 107, C1) allowing for sediment resuspension in the channel and vegetation growth in the marsh using the depth dependent model of biomass productivity of Spartina proposed by Morris et al. (2002, Ecology, 83, pp. 2869 - 2877). We first focus on the case of a tide dominated salt marsh neglecting wind driven sediment resuspension in the shoal. Results show that the production of biomass plays a crucial role on salt marsh stability and, provided productivity is high enough, it may turn out to be sufficient to counteract the effects of sea level rise even in the absence of significant supply of mineral sediments. The additional effect of wind resuspension is then introduced. Note that the wind action is twofold: on one hand, it generates wind waves the amplitude of which is strongly dependent on shoal depth and wind fetch; on the other hand, it generates currents driven by the surface setup induced by the shear stress acting on the free surface. Here, each contribution is analysed separately. Results show that the values of bottom stress induced by wind setup are small compared with those associated with wind waves. However, the permanence of wind currents makes them as significant as the oscillating tidal currents in determining the direction and the intensity of the residual sediment flux. Marshes are typically characterised by a variety of vegetation species competing for habitat space within the intertidal zone: we analyze this feature by considering the case of two different species. Preliminary results show that the presence of a species characterised by a narrower habitat range, lower optimum elevation and biomass productivity, has a positive feedback on the growth of the other species. Moreover, the presence of an invader raises marsh elevation above the value reached in the presence of just one species. Finally, we investigate the effect of a reduction of the amount of sediments supplied from the sea.

A New CCI ECV Release (v2.0) to Accurately Measure the Sea Level Change from space (1993-2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legeais, Jean-Francois; Benveniste, Jérôme

2017-04-01

Accurate monitoring of the sea level is required to better understand its variability and changes. Sea level is one of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) selected in the frame of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program. It aims at providing a long-term homogeneous and accurate sea level record. The needs and feedback of the climate research community have been collected so that the development of the products is adapted to the users. A first version of the sea level ECV product has been generated during phase I of the project (2011-2013). Within phase II (2014-2016), the 15 partner consortium has prepared the production of a new reprocessed homogeneous and accurate altimeter sea level record which is now available (see http://www.esa-sealevel-cci.org/products ). New level 2 altimeter standards developed and tested within the project as well as external contributions have been identified, processed and evaluated by comparison with a reference for different altimeter missions (TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 & 2, ERS-1 & 2, Envisat, GFO, SARAL/AltiKa and CryoSat-2). The main evolutions are associated with the wet troposphere correction (based on the GPD+ algorithm including inter calibration with respect to external sensors) but also to the orbit solutions (POE-E and GFZ15), the ERA-Interim based atmospheric corrections and the FES2014 ocean tide model. A new pole tide solution is used and anomalies are referenced to the MSS DTU15. The presentation will focus on the main achievements of the ESA CCI Sea Level project and on the description of the new SL_cci ECV release covering 1993-2015. The major steps required to produce the reprocessed 23 year climate time series will be described. The impacts of the selected level 2 altimeter standards on the SL_cci ECV have been assessed on different spatial scales (global, regional, mesoscale) and temporal scales (long-term, inter-annual, periodic signals). A significant improvement is observed compared to the current v1.1, with the main impacts observed on the long-term evolution on decadal time scale, on global and regional scales, and for mesoscale signals. The results from product validation, carried out by several groups of the ocean and climate modeling community will be also presented.

A New CCI ECV Release (v2.0) to Accurately Measure the Sea Level Change (1993-2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legeais, J.; Cazenave, A. A.; Ablain, M.; Gilles, G.; Johannessen, J. A.; Scharffenberg, M. G.; Timms, G.; Andersen, O. B.; Cipollini, P.; Roca, M.; Rudenko, S.; Fernandes, J.; Balmaseda, M.; Quartly, G.; Fenoglio Marc, L.; Meyssignac, B.; Benveniste, J.; Ambrozio, A.; Restano, M.

2016-12-01

Accurate monitoring of the sea level is required to better understand its variability and changes. Sea level is one of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) selected in the frame of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program. It aims at providing a long-term homogeneous and accurate sea level record. The needs and feedback of the climate research community have been collected and a first version of the sea level ECV product has been generated with the best algorithms and altimeter standards. This record (1993-2014) has been validated by the climate research community. Within phase II (2014-2016), the 15 partner consortium has prepared the production of a new reprocessed homogeneous and accurate altimeter sea level record which will be distributed in Autumn 2016. New level 2 altimeter standards developed and tested within the project as well as external contributions have been identified, processed and evaluated by comparison with a reference for different altimeter missions (TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 & 2, ERS-1 & 2, Envisat and GFO). The main evolutions are associated with the wet troposphere correction (based on the GPD+ algorithm including inter calibration with respect to external sensors) but also to the orbit solutions (POE-E and GFZ15), the ERA-Interim based atmospheric corrections and the FES2014 ocean tide model. A new pole tide solution is used and anomalies are referenced to the MSS DTU15. The presentation will focus on the main achievements of the ESA CCI Sea Level project and on the description of the new SL_cci ECV release covering 1993-2015. The major steps required to produce the reprocessed 23 year climate time series will be described. The impacts of the selected level 2 altimeter standards on the SL_cci ECV have been assessed on different spatial scales (global, regional, mesoscale) and temporal scales (long-term, inter-annual, periodic). A significant improvement is expected compared to the current v1.1, with the main impacts observed on the long-term evolution on decadal time scale, on global and regional scales, and for mesoscale signals. The results from product validation, carried out by several groups of the ocean and climate modeling community will be also presented.

Can uncertainties in sea ice albedo reconcile patterns of data-model discord for the Pliocene and 20th/21st centuries?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howell, Fergus W.; Haywood, Alan M.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Francis, Jane E; Hill, Daniel J.; Pickering, Steven J.; Pope, James O.; Salzmann, Ulrich; Wade, Bidget S

2014-01-01

General Circulation Model simulations of the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, 3.264 to 3.025 Myr ago) currently underestimate the level of warming that proxy data suggest existed at high latitudes, with discrepancies of up to 11°C for sea surface temperature estimates and 17°C for surface air temperature estimates. Sea ice has a strong influence on high-latitude climates, partly due to the albedo feedback. We present results demonstrating the effects of reductions in minimum sea ice albedo limits in general circulation model simulations of the mPWP. While mean annual surface air temperature increases of up to 6°C are observed in the Arctic, the maximum decrease in model-data discrepancies is just 0.81°C. Mean annual sea surface temperatures increase by up to 2°C, with a maximum model-data discrepancy improvement of 1.31°C. It is also suggested that the simulation of observed 21st century sea ice decline could be influenced by the adjustment of the sea ice albedo parameterization.

The effect of α1 -adrenergic blockade on post-exercise brachial artery flow-mediated dilatation at sea level and high altitude.

PubMed

Tymko, Michael M; Tremblay, Joshua C; Hansen, Alex B; Howe, Connor A; Willie, Chris K; Stembridge, Mike; Green, Daniel J; Hoiland, Ryan L; Subedi, Prajan; Anholm, James D; Ainslie, Philip N

2017-03-01

Our objective was to quantify endothelial function (via brachial artery flow-mediated dilatation) at sea level (344 m) and high altitude (3800 m) at rest and following both maximal exercise and 30 min of moderate-intensity cycling exercise with and without administration of an α 1 -adrenergic blockade. Brachial endothelial function did not differ between sea level and high altitude at rest, nor following maximal exercise. At sea level, endothelial function decreased following 30 min of moderate-intensity exercise, and this decrease was abolished with α 1 -adrenergic blockade. At high altitude, endothelial function did not decrease immediately after 30 min of moderate-intensity exercise, and administration of α 1 -adrenergic blockade resulted in an increase in flow-mediated dilatation. Our data indicate that post-exercise endothelial function is modified at high altitude (i.e. prolonged hypoxaemia). The current study helps to elucidate the physiological mechanisms associated with high-altitude acclimatization, and provides insight into the relationship between sympathetic nervous activity and vascular endothelial function. We examined the hypotheses that (1) at rest, endothelial function would be impaired at high altitude compared to sea level, (2) endothelial function would be reduced to a greater extent at sea level compared to high altitude after maximal exercise, and (3) reductions in endothelial function following moderate-intensity exercise at both sea level and high altitude are mediated via an α 1 -adrenergic pathway. In a double-blinded, counterbalanced, randomized and placebo-controlled design, nine healthy participants performed a maximal-exercise test, and two 30 min sessions of semi-recumbent cycling exercise at 50% peak output following either placebo or α 1 -adrenergic blockade (prazosin; 0.05 mg kg  -1 ). These experiments were completed at both sea-level (344 m) and high altitude (3800 m). Blood pressure (finger photoplethysmography), heart rate (electrocardiogram), oxygen saturation (pulse oximetry), and brachial artery blood flow and shear rate (ultrasound) were recorded before, during and following exercise. Endothelial function assessed by brachial artery flow-mediated dilatation (FMD) was measured before, immediately following and 60 min after exercise. Our findings were: (1) at rest, FMD remained unchanged between sea level and high altitude (placebo P = 0.287; prazosin: P = 0.110); (2) FMD remained unchanged after maximal exercise at sea level and high altitude (P = 0.244); and (3) the 2.9 ± 0.8% (P = 0.043) reduction in FMD immediately after moderate-intensity exercise at sea level was abolished via α 1 -adrenergic blockade. Conversely, at high altitude, FMD was unaltered following moderate-intensity exercise, and administration of α 1 -adrenergic blockade elevated FMD (P = 0.032). Our results suggest endothelial function is differentially affected by exercise when exposed to hypobaric hypoxia. These findings have implications for understanding the chronic impacts of hypoxaemia on exercise, and the interactions between the α 1 -adrenergic pathway and endothelial function. © 2016 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology © 2016 The Physiological Society.

Benefits arising from SEA application -- a comparative review of North West England, Noord-Holland, and Brandenburg-Berlin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fischer, T.B.

1999-03-01

This article seeks to determine the extent to which current assessment practice of transport infrastructure-related policies, plans, and programs (PPPs) results in certain benefits of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) in three European Union regions, namely, the region of North West England (UK), the provincie (administrative region) Noord-Holland (The Netherlands), and the engerer Verflechtungsraum (planning region) Brandenburg-Berlin (Germany). The number of assessments of transport infrastructure-related PPPs that potentially may be called SEA in the three regions is estimated. Benefits that should result from the application of SEA can be determined based on a review of existing academic literature. An analytical frameworkmore » is prepared, introducing evaluation criteria that are based on principles of SEA frameworks and procedures. The framework is used to analyze transport infrastructure-related PPPs at all administrative levels of decision-making in the three study regions. It is concluded that current assessment practice indeed results in certain related experience in the European Union than is frequently anticipated in the academic literature. It is observed that case studies that were reviewed on a number of previous occasions and those that are included in this analysis do not necessarily appear to be good practice cases.« less

Sediment suspension and the dynamic mechanism during storms in the Yellow River Delta.

PubMed

Bian, Shuhua; Hu, Zjian; Liu, Jianqiang; Zhu, Zichen

2016-12-01

The suspension and hydrodynamic characteristics of the Yellow River Delta during storms were analyzed based on suspended samples obtained using automatic samplers during a storm event in the Yellow River Delta. Synchronous data for winds, waves, and tides were also collected from a nearby station. The results show that under wind speeds of 5-15 m/s and wave heights of 50-150 cm, the suspended content reached 5.7-49.6 kg/m 3 , which is 10-100 times higher than that under normal weather conditions. The medium diameter of suspended particles was 1.2-2.1 μm (8.9-9.7 Φ), which was approximately 1-2 Φ finer than that under normal weather conditions. During the early stages of the measurements, the sea level had risen by 50 cm owing to the storm, which was in addition to the tidal sea level change. We suggest that during the storms, the waves strengthened and the storm-induced sea level change, which was combined with tidal currents moving in the same direction, produced high-speed currents. This overcame the cohesive forces among the fine sediment particles and suspended a large amount of sediment. As a result, the suspended content increased markedly and the suspended particle size became finer. This explains the intense siltation and erosion of the Yellow River Delta during storms.

Incorporating Tsunami Projections to Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessments -A Case Study for Midway Atoll-

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gica, E.; Reynolds, M.

2012-12-01

Recent global models predict a rise of approximately one meter in global sea level by 2100, with potentially larger increases in areas of the Pacific Ocean. If current climate change trends continue, low-lying islands across the globe may become inundated over the next century, placing island biodiversity at risk. Adding to the risk of inundation due to sea level rise is the occurrence of cyclones and tsunamis. This combined trend will affect the low-lying islands of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands and it is therefore important to assess its impact since these islands are critical habitats to many endangered endemic species and support the largest tropical seabird rookery in the world. The 11 March 2011 Tohoku (Mw=8.8) earthquake-tsunami affected the habitat of many endangered endemic species in Midway Atoll National Wildlife Refuge because all three islands (Sand, Eastern and Spit) were inundated by tsunami waves. At present sea level, some tsunamis from certain source regions would not affect Midway Atoll. For example, the previous earthquake-tsunamis such as the 15 November 2006 Kuril (Mw=8.1) and 13 February 2007 Kuril (Mw=7.9) were not significant enough to affect Midway Atoll. But at higher sea levels, tsunamis with similar characteristics could pose a threat to such terrestrial habitats and wildlife. To visualize projected impacts to vegetation composition, wildlife habitat, and wildlife populations, we explored and analyzed inundation vulnerability for a range of possible sea level rise and tsunami scenarios at Midway Atoll National Wildlife Refuge. Studying the combined threat of tsunamis and sea level rise can provide more accurate and comprehensive assessments of the vulnerability of the unique natural resources on low-lying islands. A passive sea level rise model was used to determine how much inundation will occur at different sea level rise values for the three islands of Midway Atoll and each scenario was coupled with NOAA Center for Tsunami Research's tsunami forecasting tool. The tsunami forecasting tool was used to generate tsunami scenarios from different source regions and served as boundary conditions for inundation models to project the coastal impact at Midway Atoll. Underlying the tsunami forecast tool is a database of pre-computed tsunami propagation runs for discrete sections of the earth's subduction zones that are the principal locus of tsunami-generating activity. The new LiDAR topographic data, which is the first high resolution elevation data for three individual islands of Midway Atoll, was used for both the passive sea level rise model and inundation model for Midway Atoll. Results of the study will indicate how the combined climate change and tsunami occurrence will affect Midway Atoll and can therefore be used for early climate change adaptation and mitigation planning, especially for vulnerable species and areas of the Atoll.

Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene climate evolution controlled by sea-level change, Leeuwin Current, and Australian Monsoon in the Northwestern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishiwa, T.; Yokoyama, Y.; McHugh, C.; Reuning, L.; Gallagher, S. J.

2017-12-01

The transition from cold to warm conditions during the last deglaciation influenced climate variability in the Indian Ocean and Pacific as a result of submerge of continental shelf and variations in the Indonesian Throughflow and Australian Monsoon. The shallow continental shelf (< 200 m water depth) developed along the northwestern Australian margin is influenced by the Australian Monsoon and Leeuwin Current (one of branch of the Indonesian Throughflow). The International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 356 Indonesian Throughflow drilled in the northwestern Australian shallow continental shelf and recovered an interval from the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene in Site U1461. Radiocarbon dating on macrofossils, foraminifera, and bulk organic matter provided a precise age-depth model, leading to high-resolved paleoclimate reconstruction. X-ray elemental analysis results are interpreted as an indicator of sedimentary environmental changes. The upper 20-m part of Site U1461 apparently records the climate transition from the LGM to Holocene in the northwestern Australia, which could be associated with sea-level change, Leeuwin Current activity, and the Australian Monsoon.

Cascading ocean basins: numerical simulations of the circulation and interbasin exchange in the Azov-Black-Marmara-Mediterranean Seas system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanev, Emil Vassilev; Grashorn, Sebastian; Zhang, Yinglong Joseph

2017-08-01

In this paper, we use the unstructured grid model SCHISM to simulate the thermohydrodynamics in a chain of baroclinic, interconnected basins. The model shows a good skill in simulating the horizontal circulation and vertical profiles of temperature, salinity, and currents. The magnitude and phases of the seasonal changes of circulation are consistent with earlier observations. Among the mesoscale and subbasin-scale circulation features that are realistically simulated are the anticyclonic coastal eddies, the Sebastopol and Batumi eddies, the Marmara Sea outflow around the southern coast of the Limnos Island, and the pathway of the cold water originating from the shelf. The superiority of the simulations compared to earlier numerical studies is demonstrated with the example of model capabilities to resolve the strait dynamics, gravity currents originating from the straits, high-salinity bottom layer on the shallow shelf, as well as the multiple intrusions from the Bosporus Strait down to 700 m depth. The warm temperature intrusions from the strait produce the warm water mass in the intermediate layers of the Black Sea. One novel result is that the seasonal intensification of circulation affects the interbasin exchange, thus allowing us to formulate the concept of circulation-controlled interbasin exchange. To the best of our knowledge, the present numerical simulations, for the first time, suggest that the sea level in the interior part of the Black Sea can be lower than the sea level in the Marmara Sea and even in some parts of the Aegean Sea. The comparison with observations shows that the timings and magnitude of exchange flows are also realistically simulated, along with the blocking events. The short-term variability of the strait transports is largely controlled by the anomalies of wind. The simulations demonstrate the crucial role of the narrow and shallow strait of Bosporus in separating the two pairs of basins: Aegean-Marmara Seas from one side and Azov-Black Seas from the other side. The straits of Kerch and Dardanelles provide sufficient interbasin connectivity that prevents large phase lags of the sea levels in the neighboring basins. The two-layer flows in the three straits considered here show different dependencies upon the net transport, and the spatial variability of this dependence is also quite pronounced. We show that the blocking of the surface flow can occur at different net transports, thus casting doubt on a previous approach of using simple relationships to prescribe (steady) outflow and inflow. Specific attention is paid to the role of synoptic atmospheric forcing for the basin-wide circulation and redistribution of mass in the Black Sea. An important controlling process is the propagation of coastal waves. One major conclusion from this research is that modeling the individual basins separately could result in large inaccuracies because of the critical importance of the cascading character of these interconnected basins.

The Black Sea Monitoring and Forecasting Center (BS-MFC) in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palazov, Atanas; Coppini, Giovanni; Ciliberti, Stefania Angela; Gregoire, Marilaure; Staneva, Joanna; Peneva, Elisaveta; Özsoy, Emin; Vandenbulcke, Luc; Storto, Andrea; Lemieux-Dudon, Benedicte; Lovato, Tomas; Masina, Simona; Pinardi, Nadia; Palermo, Francesco; Creti, Sergio; Macchia, Francesca; Lecci, Rita; Behrens, Arno; Marinova, Veselka; Slabakova, Violeta

2017-04-01

The BS-MFC entered the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS, http://marine.copernicus.eu/) in October 2016, providing regular and systematic information about the ocean state in the Black Sea in operational mode. An expert team constitutes the BS-MFC Consortium: the Institute of Oceanology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (IO-BAS, Bulgaria) coordinates the service and the management in collaboration with Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC, Italy), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht - Institute of Coastal Research (HZG, Germany), the University of Liege (ULG, Belgium), the Sofia University "St. Kliment Ohridski (USOF, Bulgaria) and the Eurasia Earth Sciences Institute - Istanbul Technical University (ITU, Turkey). The system provides a complete data catalogue for the Black Sea ocean variables such as temperature, salinity, sea level, currents, biogeochemistry and waves through a technologically advanced and resilient service, which is fully interconnected with the other Centers in the Copernicus network. The high level BS-MFC architecture is based on 3 Production Units, for Physics, Biogeochemistry and Waves products respectively, a Dissemination/Archiving Unit for the delivery of the products and their archiving/accessibility, a Local Service Desk connected to the CMEMS Service Desk devoted to support all the operational activities, and backup units for all the main service components. Products consist of analysis/hindcast, 10-days forecast and reanalysis, describing the physical (currents, temperature, salinity, sea level, mixed layer depth and bottom temperature), the biogeochemical state and waves. To implement and improve the service, the BS-MFC has detailed an evolution plan, actually under implementation, devoted to establish, assess and improve the systems and their operational functionalities, providing some improvements from the scientific point of view concerning the modeling components (e.g., the fully aligned Physics, Biogeochemistry and Waves systems, the open boundary conditions at the Bosporus, the state-of-the-art core models and increased spatial resolution among the major actions) and high quality products, towards an optimal interface between the Mediterranean and the Black Seas. The contribution will present the main operational and research & development activities at the basis of the systems, given an overview on the future plans for improving the service for the delivery of new products.

Inconstant sun: how solar evolution has affected cosmic and ultraviolet radiation exposure over the history of life on Earth.

PubMed

Karam, P Andrew

2003-03-01

Four billion years ago, sea-level UV exposure was more than 400 times as intense as today, the dose from solar cosmic rays was five times present levels, and galactic cosmic rays accounted for only about 10% their current contribution to sea-level radiation doses. Exposure to cosmic radiation accounts for about 10% of natural background radiation exposure today and includes dose from galactic cosmic rays and solar charged particles. There is little exposure to ionizing wavelengths of UV due to absorption by ozone. The sun has evolved significantly over its life; in the past there were higher levels of particulate radiation and lower UV emissions from the sun, and a stronger solar wind reduced radiation dose in the inner solar system from galactic cosmic rays. Finally, since the early atmosphere contained little to no oxygen, surface levels of UV radiation were far higher in the past.

Cockpit noise intensity : fifteen single-engine light aircraft.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1968-09-01

Fifteen of the most popular single-engine general-aviation light aircraft were tested for the noise intensity present during normal cruising operations at 2000, and 10,000 feet MSL (mean sea level). In comparison with currently accepted DRC (damage-r...

Sea-level Fingerprinting, Vertical Crustal Motion from GIA, and Projections of Relative Sea-level Change in the Canadian Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

James, Thomas; Simon, Karen; Forbes, Donald; Dyke, Arthur; Mazzotti, Stephane

2010-05-01

We present projections of relative sea-level rise in the 21st century for communities in the Canadian Arctic. First, for selected communities, we determine the sea-level fingerprinting response from Antarctica, Greenland, and mountain glaciers and ice caps. Then, for various published projections of global sea-level change in the 21st century, we determine the local amount of "absolute" sea-level change. We next determine the vertical land motion arising from glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and incorporate this into the estimates of absolute sea-level change to obtain projections of relative sea-level change. The sea-level fingerprinting effect is especially important in the Canadian Arctic owing to proximity to Arctic ice caps and especially to the Greenland ice sheet. Its effect is to reduce the range of projected relative sea-level change compared to the range of global sea-level projections. Vertical crustal motion is assessed through empirically derived regional isobases, the Earth's predicted response to ice-sheet loading and unloading by the ICE-5G ice sheet reconstruction, and Global Positioning System vertical velocities. Owing to the large rates of crustal uplift from glacial isostatic adjustment across a large region of central Arctic Canada, many communities are projected to experience relative sea-level fall despite projections of global sea-level rise. Where uplift rates are smaller, such as eastern Baffin Island and the western Canadian Arctic, sea-level is projected to rise.

Observations of Near-Bottom Currents with Low-Cost SeaHorse Tilt Current Meters

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

SeaHorse Tilt Current Meters Vitalii A. Sheremet Graduate School of Oceanography University of Rhode Island Narragansett, Rhode Island 02882...Telephone: (401) 874-6939, Fax: (401) 874-6728 Email: vsheremet@gso.uri.edu Grant Number: N00014-09-1-0993 http://www.gso.uri.edu/~sheremet/ SeaHorse ...LONG-TERM GOALS The SeaHorse TCM is a low-cost, easy to use, robust current meter based on the drag principle. Use of a large number of

Observations of Near-Bottom Currents With Low-Cost SeaHorse Tilt Current Meters

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-30

SeaHorse Tilt Current Meters Vitalii A. Sheremet Graduate School of Oceanography University of Rhode Island Narragansett, Rhode Island 02882...Telephone: (401) 874-6939, Fax: (401) 874-6728 Email: vsheremet@gso.uri.edu Grant Number: N00014-09-1-0993 http://www.gso.uri.edu/~sheremet/ SeaHorse ...LONG-TERM GOALS The SeaHorse TCM is a low-cost, easy to use, robust current meter based on the drag principle. Use of a large number of

Evaluating Potential Tipping Points of Antarctic basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durand, G.; Sainan, S.; Pattyn, F.; Jourdain, N.

2017-12-01

Antarctica is currently loosing mass and its forthcoming contribution to sea-level rise could substantially increase during the coming centuries. This is essentially due to geometrical constraints, i.e., in regions where grounded ice lies on a bedrock below sea-level sloping down towards the interior of the ice sheet (retrograde slope). For such a configuration the ice sheet is considered potentially unstable, as suggested by theory. However, recent observations on accelerated grounding-line retreat and new insights in modeling Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers give evidence that such self-sustained retreat, called marine ice sheet instability (MISI), has already been on its way. Although West Antarctica appears to be the most vulnerable region for MISI occurrence, similar topographic configurations are also observed in East Antarctica, in the Wilkes Basin in particular. Therefore, evaluating the MISI potential at a pan-Antarctic scale is becoming a priority. Here, using the f.ETISh ice sheet model, an ensemble of simulations of the entire contemporary Antarctic ice sheet has been carried out. In particular, we investigate the debuttressing of ice shelves required to initiate MISI for each coastal region around Antarctica by forcing the model with realistic sub-shelf melt pulses of varying duration and amplitude. We further identify the currently grounded areas where the outlet glaciers could hardly stabilize, the Amundsen Sea Sector being the more prone to large self-sustained retreats. On the contrary, the ability of Cook and Ninnis ice shelves to recover after large perturbations and enough buttress upstream outlet glaciers tends to limit self-sustained retreat of the sector. For each basin, rates of contribution to sea-level rise are discussed together with the RCPs and time when tipping points could be reached and MISI triggered.

Modeling temperature inversion in southeastern Yellow Sea during winter 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pang, Ig-Chan; Moon, Jae-Hong; Lee, Joon-Ho; Hong, Ji-Seok; Pang, Sung-Jun

2017-05-01

A significant temperature inversion with temperature differences larger than 3°C was observed in the southeastern Yellow Sea (YS) during February 2016. By analyzing in situ hydrographic profiles and results from a regional ocean model for the YS, this study examines the spatiotemporal evolution of the temperature inversion and its connection with wind-induced currents in winter. Observations reveal that in winter, when the northwesterly wind prevails over the YS, the temperature inversion occurs largely at the frontal zone southwest of Korea where warm/saline water of a Kuroshio origin meets cold/fresh coastal water. Our model successfully captures the temperature inversion observed in the winter of 2016 and suggests a close relation between northwesterly wind bursts and the occurrence of the large inversion. In this respect, the strong northwesterly wind drove cold coastal water southward in the upper layer via Ekman transport, which pushed the water mass southward and increased the sea level slope in the frontal zone in southeastern YS. The intensified sea level slope propagated northward away from the frontal zone as a shelf wave, causing a northward upwind flow response along the YS trough in the lower layer, thereby resulting in the large temperature inversion. Diagnostic analysis of the momentum balance shows that the westward pressure gradient, which developed with shelf wave propagation along the YS trough, was balanced with the Coriolis force in accordance with the northward upwind current in and around the inversion area.

The Development of a Sea Surface Height Climate Data Record from Multi-mission Altimeter Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckley, B. D.; Ray, R. D.; Lemoine, F. G.; Zelensky, N. P.; Desai, S. D.; Brown, S.; Mitchum, G. T.; Nerem, R.; Yang, X.; Holmes, S. A.

2011-12-01

The determination of the rate of change of mean sea level (MSL) has undeniable societal significance. The science value of satellite altimeter observations has grown dramatically over time as improved models and technologies have increased the value of data acquired on both past and present missions enabling credible MSL estimates. With the prospect of an observational time series extending into several decades from TOPEX/Poseidon through Jason-1 and the Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM), and further in time with a future set of operational altimeters, researchers are pushing the bounds of current technology and modeling capability in order to monitor global and regional sea level rates at an accuracy of a few tenths of a mm/yr. GRACE data analysis suggests that the ice melt from Alaska alone contributes 0.3 mm/y to global sea level rise. The measurement of MSL change from satellite altimetry requires an extreme stability of the altimeter measurement system since the signal being measured is at the level of a few mm/yr. This means that the orbit and reference frame within which the altimeter measurements are situated, and the associated altimeter corrections, must be stable and accurate enough to permit a robust MSL estimate. Foremost, orbit quality and consistency are critical not only to satellite altimeter measurement accuracy across one mission, but also for the seamless transition between missions (Beckley, et. al, 2005). The analysis of altimeter data for TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and OSTM requires that the orbits for all three missions be in a consistent reference frame, and calculated with the best possible standards to minimize error and maximize the data return from the time series, particularly with respect to the demanding application of measuring sea level trends. In this presentation we describe the development and utility of the MEaSURE's TPJAOS V1.0 sea surface height Climate Data Record (http://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/dataset/MERGED_TP_J1_OSTM_OST_ALL). We provide an assessment of recent improvements to the accuracy of the 19-year sea surface height time series, describe continuing calibration/validation activities, and evaluate the subsequent impact on global and regional mean sea level estimates.

The Climate Science Special Report: Rising Seas and Changing Oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, R. E.

2017-12-01

GMSL has risen by about 16-21 cm since 1900. Ocean heat content has increased at all depths since the 1960s, and global mean sea-surface temperature increased 0.7°C/century between 1900 to 2016. Human activity contributed substantially to generating a rate of GMSL rise since 1900 faster than during any preceding century in at least 2800 years. A new set of six sea-level rise scenarios, spanning a range from 30 cm to 250 cm of 21st century GMSL rise, were developed for the CSSR. The lower scenario is based on linearly extrapolating the past two decades' rate of rise. The upper scenario is informed by literature estimates of maximum physically plausible values, observations indicating the onset of marine ice sheet instability in parts of West Antarctica, and modeling of ice-cliff and ice-shelf instability mechanisms. The new scenarios include localized projections along US coastlines. There is significant variability around the US, with rates of rise likely greater than GMSL rise in the US Northeast and the western Gulf of Mexico. Under scenarios involving extreme Antarctic contributions, regional rise would be greater than GMSL rise along almost all US coastlines. Historical sea-level rise has already driven a 5- to 10-fold increase in minor tidal flooding in several US coastal cities since the 1960s. Under the CSSR's Intermediate sea-level rise scenario (1.0 m of GMSL rise in 2100) , a majority of NOAA tide gauge locations will by 2040 experience the historical 5-year coastal flood about 5 times per year. Ocean changes are not limited to rising sea levels. Ocean pH is decreasing at a rate that may be unparalleled in the last 66 million years. Along coastlines, ocean acidification can be enhanced by changes in the upwelling (particularly along the US Pacific Coast); by episodic, climate change-enhanced increases in freshwater input (particularly along the US Atlantic Coast); and by the enhancement of biological respiration by nutrient runoff. Climate models project a slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under high-emissions scenarios. Any slowdown will reduce ocean heat and carbon absorption and raise sea levels off the northeastern US A full AMOC collapse, improbable in the current century, would lead to an additional 0.5 m of sea-level rise and offset 0-2°C of warming over the US.

Two Sea-Level Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galvin, C.

2008-12-01

"No place on the sandy ocean shores of the world has been shown to be eroding because of sea level rise." This statement appeared nearly 19 years ago in bold print at the top of the page in a brief article published in Shore and Beach (Galvin,1990). The term "sea level rise" was defined in 1990 as follows: "In this statement, "sea level rise" has the meaning that the average person on the street usually attaches to that term. That is, sea level is rising; not, as in some places like the Mississippi River delta, land level is sinking." While still a subject of controversy, it is now (2008) increasingly plausible (Tornqvist et al,2008) that damage from Hurricane Katrina was significantly worse on the Mississippi River delta because floodwaters exploited wetlands and levees whose elevations had been lowered by decades of compaction in the underlying soil. (1) "Sea level" commonly appears in the literature as "relative sea level rise", occurring that way in 711 publications between 1980 and 2009 (GeoRef database on 8 Sep 08). "Relative sea level rise" does not appear in the 2005 AGI Glossary. The nearest Glossary term is "relative change in sea level", but that term occurs in only 12 publications between 1980 and 2009. The Glossary defines this term in a sequence stratigraphy sense, which infers that "relative sea level rise" is the sum of bottom subsidence and eustatic sea level rise. In plain English, "relative sea level rise" means "water depth increase". For present day coastal environments, "relative sea level rise" is commonly used where eustatic sea level rise is less than subsidence, that is, where the magnitude of actual sea level rise is smaller than the magnitude of subsidence. In that situation, "relative sea level rise" misleads both the average person and the scientist who is not a coastal geologist. Thus, the first challenge is to abandon "relative sea level rise" in favor of "water depth increase", in order that the words accurately descibe what happens. It would further clarify popular understanding if the term "actual sea level rise" were used in place of "eustatic sea level rise". (2)Geologists have approximated the the practice of paleontologists and biologists in establishing type examples of important geological features. This is a useful practice. A graduate geologist holds in mind clear conceptions of "beach cusps", "drumlin fields", "birdfoot deltas", and "igneous sills" based on seeing field examples accepted by professional geologists as representative of these features. However, although publications frequently report that sea level rise erodes a particular beach, no one identifies a type beach where that cause has been proven to produce the alleged effect. At the type beach, it is necessary to show that sea level is rising, and that the beach erodes primarily from this sea level rise, rather than from interrupted longshore transport. Thus, the second challenge is to identify a type ocean beach proven to erode because of sea level rise.

Historical processes and contemporary ocean currents drive genetic structure in the seagrass Thalassia hemprichii in the Indo-Australian Archipelago.

PubMed

Hernawan, Udhi E; van Dijk, Kor-Jent; Kendrick, Gary A; Feng, Ming; Biffin, Edward; Lavery, Paul S; McMahon, Kathryn

2017-02-01

Understanding spatial patterns of gene flow and genetic structure is essential for the conservation of marine ecosystems. Contemporary ocean currents and historical isolation due to Pleistocene sea level fluctuations have been predicted to influence the genetic structure in marine populations. In the Indo-Australian Archipelago (IAA), the world's hotspot of marine biodiversity, seagrasses are a vital component but population genetic information is very limited. Here, we reconstructed the phylogeography of the seagrass Thalassia hemprichii in the IAA based on single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and then characterized the genetic structure based on a panel of 16 microsatellite markers. We further examined the relative importance of historical isolation and contemporary ocean currents in driving the patterns of genetic structure. Results from SNPs revealed three population groups: eastern Indonesia, western Indonesia (Sunda Shelf) and Indian Ocean; while the microsatellites supported five population groups (eastern Indonesia, Sunda Shelf, Lesser Sunda, Western Australia and Indian Ocean). Both SNPs and microsatellites showed asymmetrical gene flow among population groups with a trend of southwestward migration from eastern Indonesia. Genetic diversity was generally higher in eastern Indonesia and decreased southwestward. The pattern of genetic structure and connectivity is attributed partly to the Pleistocene sea level fluctuations modified to a smaller level by contemporary ocean currents. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Recent advances in the compilation of holocene relative Sea-level database in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, B.; Vacchi, M.; Engelhart, S. E.; Nikitina, D.

2015-12-01

Reconstruction of relative sea level (RSL) has implications for investigation of crustal movements, calibration of earth rheology models and the reconstruction of ice sheets. In recent years, efforts were made to create RSL databases following a standardized methodology. These regional databases provided a framework for developing our understanding of the primary mechanisms of RSL change since the Last Glacial Maximum and a long-term baseline against which to gauge changes in sea-level during the 20th century and forecasts for the 21st. Here we present two quality-controlled Holocene RSL database compiled for North America. Along the Pacific coast of North America (British Columbia, Canada to California, USA), our re-evaluation of sea-level indicators from geological and archaeological investigations yield 841 RSL data-points mainly from salt and freshwater wetlands or adjacent estuarine sediment as well as from isolation basin. Along the Atlantic coast of North America (Hudson Bay, Canada to South Carolina, USA), we are currently compiling a database including more than 2000 RSL data-points from isolation basin, salt and freshwater wetlands, beach ridges and intratidal deposits. We outline the difficulties and solutions we made to compile databases in such different depostional environment. We address complex tectonics and the framework to compare such large variability of RSL data-point. We discuss the implications of our results for the glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) models in the two studied regions.

Can beaches survive climate change?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Limber, Patrick W.

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is driving sea level rise, leading to numerous impacts on the coastal zone, such as increased coastal flooding, beach erosion, cliff failure, saltwater intrusion in aquifers, and groundwater inundation. Many beaches around the world are currently experiencing chronic erosion as a result of gradual, present-day rates of sea level rise (about 3 mm/year) and human-driven restrictions in sand supply (e.g., harbor dredging and river damming). Accelerated sea level rise threatens to worsen coastal erosion and challenge the very existence of natural beaches throughout the world. Understanding and predicting the rates of sea level rise and coastal erosion depends on integrating data on natural systems with computer simulations. Although many computer modeling approaches are available to simulate shoreline change, few are capable of making reliable long-term predictions needed for full adaption or to enhance resilience. Recent advancements have allowed convincing decadal to centennial-scale predictions of shoreline evolution. For example, along 500 km of the Southern California coast, a new model featuring data assimilation predicts that up to 67% of beaches may completely erode by 2100 without large-scale human interventions. In spite of recent advancements, coastal evolution models must continue to improve in their theoretical framework, quantification of accuracy and uncertainty, computational efficiency, predictive capability, and integration with observed data, in order to meet the scientific and engineering challenges produced by a changing climate.

Predictions of extreme precipitation and sea-level rise under climate change.

PubMed

Senior, C A; Jones, R G; Lowe, J A; Durman, C F; Hudson, D

2002-07-15

Two aspects of global climate change are particularly relevant to river and coastal flooding: changes in extreme precipitation and changes in sea level. In this paper we summarize the relevant findings of the IPCC Third Assessment Report and illustrate some of the common results found by the current generation of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), using the Hadley Centre models. Projections of changes in extreme precipitation, sea-level rise and storm surges affecting the UK will be shown from the Hadley Centre regional models and the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory storm-surge model. A common finding from AOGCMs is that in a warmer climate the intensity of precipitation will increase due to a more intense hydrological cycle. This leads to reduced return periods (i.e. more frequent occurrences) of extreme precipitation in many locations. The Hadley Centre regional model simulates reduced return periods of extreme precipitation in a number of flood-sensitive areas of the UK. In addition, simulated changes in storminess and a rise in average sea level around the UK lead to reduced return periods of extreme high coastal water events. The confidence in all these results is limited by poor spatial resolution in global coupled models and by uncertainties in the physical processes in both global and regional models, and is specific to the climate change scenario used.

ENSURF: multi-model sea level forecast - implementation and validation results for the IBIROOS and Western Mediterranean regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez, B.; Brouwer, R.; Beckers, J.; Paradis, D.; Balseiro, C.; Lyons, K.; Cure, M.; Sotillo, M. G.; Hackett, B.; Verlaan, M.; Fanjul, E. A.

2012-03-01

ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast that makes use of several storm surge or circulation models and near-real time tide gauge data in the region, with the following main goals: 1. providing easy access to existing forecasts, as well as to its performance and model validation, by means of an adequate visualization tool; 2. generation of better forecasts of sea level, including confidence intervals, by means of the Bayesian Model Average technique (BMA). The Bayesian Model Average technique generates an overall forecast probability density function (PDF) by making a weighted average of the individual forecasts PDF's; the weights represent the Bayesian likelihood that a model will give the correct forecast and are continuously updated based on the performance of the models during a recent training period. This implies the technique needs the availability of sea level data from tide gauges in near-real time. The system was implemented for the European Atlantic facade (IBIROOS region) and Western Mediterranean coast based on the MATROOS visualization tool developed by Deltares. Results of validation of the different models and BMA implementation for the main harbours are presented for these regions where this kind of activity is performed for the first time. The system is currently operational at Puertos del Estado and has proved to be useful in the detection of calibration problems in some of the circulation models, in the identification of the systematic differences between baroclinic and barotropic models for sea level forecasts and to demonstrate the feasibility of providing an overall probabilistic forecast, based on the BMA method.

Bangladesh Delta: Assessment of the Causes of Sea-level Rise Hazards and Integrated Development of Predictive Modeling Towards Mitigation and Adaptation (BanD-AID)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusche, J.; Shum, C. K.; Jenkins, C. J.; Chen, J.; Guo, J.; Hossain, F.; Braun, B.; Calmant, S.; Ballu, V.; Papa, F.; Kuhn, M.; Ahmed, R.; Khan, Z. H.; Hossain, M.; Bernzen, A.; Dai, C.; Jia, Y.; Krien, Y.; Kuo, C. Y.; Liibusk, A.; Shang, K.; Testut, L.; Tseng, K. H.; Uebbing, B.; Rietbroek, R.; Valty, P.; Wan, J.

2016-12-01

As a low-lying and the largest coastal deltaic region in the world, Bangladesh already faces tremendous vulnerability. Accelerated sea-level rise, along with tectonic, sediment load and groundwater extraction induced land uplift/subsidence, have exacerbated Bangladesh's coastal vulnerability. Climate change has further intensified these risks with increasing temperatures, greater rainfall volatility, and increased incidence of intensified cyclones, in addition to its seasonal transboundary monsoonal flooding. Our Belmont Forum/IGFA G8 project BanD-AiD, http://Belmont-BanDAiD.org, or http://Blemont-SeaLevel.org, comprises of an international cross-disciplinary team including stakeholders in Bangladesh, aims at a joint assessment of the physical and social science knowledge of the physical and social dynamics which govern coastal vulnerability and societal resilience in Bangladesh. We have built a prototype observational system, following the Belmont Challenge identified Earth System Analysis & Prediction System (ESAPS) for the Bangladesh Delta, to achieve the physical science objectives of the project. The prototype observational system is exportable to other regions of the world. We studied the physical causes of relative sea-level rise in coastal Bangladesh, with the goal to separate and quantify land subsidence and geocentric sea-level rise signals at adequate spatial scales using contemporary space geodetic and remote sensing data. We used a social and natural science integrative approach to investigate the various social and economic drivers behind land use change, population increase migration and community resilience to understand the social dynamics of this complex region and to forecast likely and alternative scenarios for maintaining the societal resilience of this vital region which currently houses a quarter of Bangladesh's 160 million people.

Fate of Water Pumped from Underground and Contributions to Sea Level Rise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wada, Yoshihide; Lo, Min-Hui; Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Reager, John T.; Famiglietti, James S.; Wu, Ren-Jie; Tseng, Yu-Heng

2016-01-01

The contributions from terrestrial water sources to sea-level rise, other than ice caps and glaciers, are highly uncertain and heavily debated1-5. Recent assessments indicate that groundwater depletion (GWD) may become the most important positive terrestrial contribution6-10 over the next 50 years, probably equal in magnitude to the current contributions from glaciers and ice caps6. However, the existing estimates assume that nearly 100% of groundwater extracted eventually ends up in the oceans. Owing to limited knowledge of the pathways and mechanisms governing the ultimate fate of pumped groundwater, the relative fraction of global GWD that contributes to sea-level rise remains unknown. Here, using a coupled climate-hydrological model11,12 simulation, we show that only 80% of GWDends up in the ocean. An increase in runo to the ocean accounts for roughly two-thirds, whereas the remainder results from the enhanced net flux of precipitation minus evaporation over the ocean, due to increased atmospheric vapour transport from the land to the ocean. The contribution of GWD to global sea-level rise amounted to 0.02 (+/- 0.004)mm yr(sup-1) in 1900 and increased to 0.27 (+/- 0.04)mm yr(sup-1) in 2000. This indicates that existing studies have substantially overestimated the contribution of GWD to global sea-level rise by a cumulative amount of at least 10 mm during the twentieth century and early twenty-first century. With other terrestrial water contributions included, we estimate the net terrestrial water contribution during the period 1993-2010 to be +0.12 +/-0.04)mm yr(sup-1), suggesting that the net terrestrialwater contribution reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report report is probably overestimated by a factor of three.

Dynamics of marsh-mangrove ecotone since the mid-Holocene: A palynological study of mangrove encroachment and sea level rise in the Shark River Estuary, Florida

PubMed Central

Liu, Kam-biu

2017-01-01

Sea level rise and the associated inland shift of the marsh-mangrove ecotone in south Florida have raised many scientific and management concerns in recent years. Holocene paleoecological records can provide an important baseline to shed light on the long-term dynamics of vegetation changes across this ecotone in the past, which is needed to predict the future. In this study, we present palynological, X-ray fluorescence, and loss-on ignition data from four sedimentary cores recovered from a 20-km marine-to-freshwater transect along the Shark River Estuary, southwest Everglades, to document the patterns and processes of coastal vegetation changes in response to sea level rise since the mid-Holocene. Our record indicates that freshwater marsh progressively replaced marl prairies at the Shark River Estuary between 5700 and 4400 cal yr BP. As marine transgression continued, marine influence reached the threshold necessary for mangroves to establish at the current mouth of the Shark River Slough at 3800 cal yr BP. During the next 3000 years, although sea level rise in the Western North Atlantic slowed down to 0.4 mm/yr, a spatial and temporal gradient was evident as the marsh-mangrove ecotone shifted inland by 20 km from 3800 to 800 cal yr BP, accompanied by a gradual landward replacement of freshwater marsh by mangrove forest. If sea level continues to rise at 2.33 mm/yr in the 21st century in south Florida, it is possible that marine influence will reach the threshold for mangroves to establish in the central Everglades, and we could expect a much more aggressive mangrove encroachment toward the northern and interior parts of south Florida in the next few centuries. PMID:28282415

Dynamics of marsh-mangrove ecotone since the mid-Holocene: A palynological study of mangrove encroachment and sea level rise in the Shark River Estuary, Florida.

PubMed

Yao, Qiang; Liu, Kam-Biu

2017-01-01

Sea level rise and the associated inland shift of the marsh-mangrove ecotone in south Florida have raised many scientific and management concerns in recent years. Holocene paleoecological records can provide an important baseline to shed light on the long-term dynamics of vegetation changes across this ecotone in the past, which is needed to predict the future. In this study, we present palynological, X-ray fluorescence, and loss-on ignition data from four sedimentary cores recovered from a 20-km marine-to-freshwater transect along the Shark River Estuary, southwest Everglades, to document the patterns and processes of coastal vegetation changes in response to sea level rise since the mid-Holocene. Our record indicates that freshwater marsh progressively replaced marl prairies at the Shark River Estuary between 5700 and 4400 cal yr BP. As marine transgression continued, marine influence reached the threshold necessary for mangroves to establish at the current mouth of the Shark River Slough at 3800 cal yr BP. During the next 3000 years, although sea level rise in the Western North Atlantic slowed down to 0.4 mm/yr, a spatial and temporal gradient was evident as the marsh-mangrove ecotone shifted inland by 20 km from 3800 to 800 cal yr BP, accompanied by a gradual landward replacement of freshwater marsh by mangrove forest. If sea level continues to rise at 2.33 mm/yr in the 21st century in south Florida, it is possible that marine influence will reach the threshold for mangroves to establish in the central Everglades, and we could expect a much more aggressive mangrove encroachment toward the northern and interior parts of south Florida in the next few centuries.

ISSM-SESAW v1.0: mesh-based computation of gravitationally consistent sea-level and geodetic signatures caused by cryosphere and climate driven mass change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, Surendra; Ivins, Erik R.; Larour, Eric

2016-03-01

A classical Green's function approach for computing gravitationally consistent sea-level variations associated with mass redistribution on the earth's surface employed in contemporary sea-level models naturally suits the spectral methods for numerical evaluation. The capability of these methods to resolve high wave number features such as small glaciers is limited by the need for large numbers of pixels and high-degree (associated Legendre) series truncation. Incorporating a spectral model into (components of) earth system models that generally operate on a mesh system also requires repetitive forward and inverse transforms. In order to overcome these limitations, we present a method that functions efficiently on an unstructured mesh, thus capturing the physics operating at kilometer scale yet capable of simulating geophysical observables that are inherently of global scale with minimal computational cost. The goal of the current version of this model is to provide high-resolution solid-earth, gravitational, sea-level and rotational responses for earth system models operating in the domain of the earth's outer fluid envelope on timescales less than about 1 century when viscous effects can largely be ignored over most of the globe. The model has numerous important geophysical applications. For example, we compute time-varying computations of global geodetic and sea-level signatures associated with recent ice-sheet changes that are derived from space gravimetry observations. We also demonstrate the capability of our model to simultaneously resolve kilometer-scale sources of the earth's time-varying surface mass transport, derived from high-resolution modeling of polar ice sheets, and predict the corresponding local and global geodetic signatures.

Fate of water pumped from underground and contributions to sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Yoshihide; Lo, Min-Hui; Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Reager, John T.; Famiglietti, James S.; Wu, Ren-Jie; Tseng, Yu-Heng

2016-08-01

The contributions from terrestrial water sources to sea-level rise, other than ice caps and glaciers, are highly uncertain and heavily debated. Recent assessments indicate that groundwater depletion (GWD) may become the most important positive terrestrial contribution over the next 50 years, probably equal in magnitude to the current contributions from glaciers and ice caps. However, the existing estimates assume that nearly 100% of groundwater extracted eventually ends up in the oceans. Owing to limited knowledge of the pathways and mechanisms governing the ultimate fate of pumped groundwater, the relative fraction of global GWD that contributes to sea-level rise remains unknown. Here, using a coupled climate-hydrological model simulation, we show that only 80% of GWD ends up in the ocean. An increase in runoff to the ocean accounts for roughly two-thirds, whereas the remainder results from the enhanced net flux of precipitation minus evaporation over the ocean, due to increased atmospheric vapour transport from the land to the ocean. The contribution of GWD to global sea-level rise amounted to 0.02 (+/-0.004) mm yr-1 in 1900 and increased to 0.27 (+/-0.04) mm yr-1 in 2000. This indicates that existing studies have substantially overestimated the contribution of GWD to global sea-level rise by a cumulative amount of at least 10 mm during the twentieth century and early twenty-first century. With other terrestrial water contributions included, we estimate the net terrestrial water contribution during the period 1993-2010 to be +0.12 (+/-0.04) mm yr-1, suggesting that the net terrestrial water contribution reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report report is probably overestimated by a factor of three.

Sea-level history and tectonic uplift during the last-interglacial period (LIG): Inferred from the Bab al-Mandab coral reef terraces, southern Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Mikhlafi, Ahmed Saif; Edwards, Lawrence R.; Cheng, Hai

2018-02-01

Results of U-series dating of late Pleistocene raised coral reef terraces from the Bab al-Mandab area, define two distinct groups: (1) well-preserved aragonitic fossil corals recorded from the Al-Hajaja terrace (Tr3) yield ages for last-interglacial period (LIG); and (2) calcitic fossil corals recovered from Perim Island terrace (Tr1) show varying degrees of U-series open system behavior and yield coral assemblage ages of LIG and older ages. Fossil corals from Tr1 are recrystallized corals, have anomalously high initial δ234U ranged from (152 ± 2‰ to 287 ± 7‰), corresponding to ages of ∼120 ka and ∼406 ka, respectively. Applying age reliability criteria on the current data suggest majority of the ages cannot be considered reliable and all are suspected for open system behavior associated with U loss/addition that significantly affects the 230Th/U ages. The diagenesis shown by these corals occurred probably due to extensive interaction of fossil corals with freshwater during the wet periods prevailed in southern Arabia coeval with the African monsoon, which led to U loss. Post-depositional U loss suggest (230Th/238U) increase, which shift the U-Th ages to unexpectedly higher levels as it is shown here. Measured elevation at the Al-Hajaja terrace (Tr3) is ∼4 ± 2 m above present sea level (apsl) consistent with eustatic sea level changes and indicates that the Bab al-Mandab area is stable at least since the LIG period. The Perim Island terrace (Tr1) is at elevation of 7 ± 2 m apsl; its reef yields diageneticaly-altered corals of multiple ages and cannot be used for sea level reconstructions.

Elucidating the Holocene Relative Sea-Level History of the US Atlantic Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engelhart, S. E.; Anderson, C.; Hill, D.; Horton, B. P.; Peltier, W. R.; van de Plassche, O.; Shennan, I.; Thieler, E. R.; Tornqvist, T. E.

2007-12-01

There is an urgent need for a re-assessment of the quality of Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) observations from the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States. Holocene RSL data provide an essential benchmark to compare against other records of RSL change in the last 100-150 years. Only high quality sea-level data reveal spatial and temporal variations in crustal movements since the Last Glacial Maximum and provide a vital constraint upon dynamical models of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) process. We require an accurate model of the GIA process to inform the global data set currently being produced on the time dependence of the gravitational field of the planet by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). We have compiled database of 1400 possible sea-level index points for the Atlantic coast of the United States. These unvalidated data contain much scatter due to concepts inherent in their original interpretation. They rarely allow for other factors such as sediment compaction and tidal range variation. Following validation, results from Delaware and North Carolina show a rapid rise in RSL from the early to mid Holocene, with no evidence of sea- level above present. They also differ somewhat from GIA model predictions. Rates of RSL change during the late Holocene divide into three broad zones: (1) Maine to Boston, MA ~ RSL rise of less than 1 mm yr-1; (2) Cape Cod, MA to Maryland ~ RSL rise between 1 and 3 mm yr-1; and (3) North Carolina to South Carolina ~ RSL rise less than 1 mm yr-1. Comparison with tide-gauge records demonstrate an increase of at least 1 mm yr-1 at all sites since AD 1900.

First approximation to congenital malformation rates in embryos and hatchlings of sea turtles.

PubMed

Bárcenas-Ibarra, Annelisse; de la Cueva, Horacio; Rojas-Lleonart, Isaias; Abreu-Grobois, F Alberto; Lozano-Guzmán, Rogelio Iván; Cuevas, Eduardo; García-Gasca, Alejandra

2015-03-01

Congenital malformations in sea turtles have been considered sporadical. Research carried out in the Mexican Pacific revealed high levels of congenital malformations in the olive ridley, but little or no information is available for other species. We present results from analyses of external congenital malformations in olive ridley, green, and hawskbill sea turtles from Mexican rookeries on the Pacific coast and Gulf of Mexico. We examined 150 green and hawksbill nests and 209 olive ridley nests during the 2010 and 2012 nesting seasons, respectively. Olive ridley eggs were transferred to a hatchery and incubated in styrofoam boxes. Nests from the other two species were left in situ. Number of eggs, live and dead hatchlings, and eggs with or without embryonic development were registered. Malformation frequency was evaluated with indices of prevalence and severity. Mortality levels, prevalence and severity were higher in olive ridley than in hawksbill and green sea turtles. Sixty-three types of congenital malformations were observed in embryos, and dead or live hatchlings. Of these, 38 are new reports; 35 for wild sea turtles, three for vertebrates. Thirty-one types were found in hawksbill, 23 in green, and 59 in olive ridley. The head region showed a higher number of malformation types. Malformation levels in the olive ridley were higher than previously reported. Olive ridleys seem more prone to the occurrence of congenital malformations than the other two species. Whether the observed malformation levels are normal or represent a health problem cannot be currently ascertained without long-term assessments. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Studying the impact of climate change on flooding in large river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiele-Eich, I.; Hopson, T.; Gilleland, E.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Hu, A.; Simmer, C.

2012-04-01

Assessing the potential impact of global climate change on hydrological extremes becomes crucial for regions such as Bangladesh, where a high population density results in a large exposure to risks associated with extreme flooding. In addition, low-lying countries such as Bangladesh are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise and its influence on present-day flood characteristics. By combining the impact of climate change on upper catchment precipitation as well as on sea-level rise at the river mouths, we attempt to analyze the development of flood characteristics such as frequency and magnitude in large river basins. Since flood duration is also of great importance to people exposed to flooding, the development of the number of days with extreme flooding is evaluated for possible trends in the future. Data used includes historical observations from the Global Runoff Data Centre, while recently released model output for upper catchment precipitation and annual mean thermosteric sea-level rise is taken from the four CCSM4 1° 20th Century ensemble members, as well as from six CCSM4 1° ensemble members for the reference concentration pathway scenarios RCP8.5, 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6. A peak-over-threshold approach is used to quantify the expected future changes in flood return levels, where discharge exceedances over a certain threshold are fit to a Generalized Pareto Distribution. Return levels are compared from both 20th century and future model simulations for time slices at 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090. It can be seen that return periods of flood events decrease as the 21st century progresses in all RCP scenarios, with this shift most pronounced in RCP 8.5. The evaluation of flood duration, or the number of days with discharges above a certain threshold, yields an increase. While the number of days with flooding increases in all RCP scenarios, with the largest increase seen at the end of the 21st century, this increase is only statistically significant for RCP 8.5. Finally, we study how sea-level rise governs the flooding behavior further upstream by calculating the effective additional discharge due to the backwater effect of sea-level rise. Sea-level rise anomalies for the 21st century are taken from CCSM4 model output at each of the river mouths. Judging from our work, the increase in effective discharge due to sea-level rise cannot be neglected when discussing flooding in the respective river basins. Impact of sea-level rise on changes in return levels will be investigated further by using extreme-value theory to calculate how the tails of the current river discharge distribution will be shifted by changing climate.

Help, I don’t know which sea ice algorithm to use?!: Developing an authoritative sea ice climate data record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meier, W.; Stroeve, J.; Duerr, R. E.; Fetterer, F. M.

2009-12-01

The declining Arctic sea ice is one of the most dramatic indicators of climate change and is being recognized as a key factor in future climate impacts on biology, human activities, and global climate change. As such, the audience for sea ice data is expanding well beyond the sea ice community. The most comprehensive sea ice data are from a series of satellite-borne passive microwave sensors. They provide a near-complete daily timeseries of sea ice concentration and extent since late-1978. However, there are many complicating issues in using such data, particularly for novice users. First, there is not one single, definitive algorithm, but several. And even for a given algorithm, different processing and quality-control methods may be used, depending on the source. Second, for all algorithms, there are uncertainties in any retrieved value. In general, these limitations are well-known: low spatial-resolution results in an imprecise ice edge determination and lack of small-scale detail (e.g., lead detection) within the ice pack; surface melt depresses concentration values during summer; thin ice is underestimated in some algorithms; some algorithms are sensitive to physical surface temperature; other surface features (e.g., snow) can influence retrieved data. While general error estimates are available for concentration values, currently the products do not carry grid-cell level or even granule level data quality information. Finally, metadata and data provenance information are limited, both of which are essential for future reprocessing. Here we describe the progress to date toward development of sea ice concentration products and outline the future steps needed to complete a sea ice climate data record.

Evaporation estimates from the Dead Sea and their implications on its water balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oroud, Ibrahim M.

2011-12-01

The Dead Sea (DS) is a terminal hypersaline water body situated in the deepest part of the Jordan Valley. There is a growing interest in linking the DS to the open seas due to severe water shortages in the area and the serious geological and environmental hazards to its vicinity caused by the rapid level drop of the DS. A key issue in linking the DS with the open seas would be an accurate determination of evaporation rates. There exist large uncertainties of evaporation estimates from the DS due to the complex feedback mechanisms between meteorological forcings and thermophysical properties of hypersaline solutions. Numerous methods have been used to estimate current and historical (pre-1960) evaporation rates, with estimates differing by ˜100%. Evaporation from the DS is usually deduced indirectly using energy, water balance, or pan methods with uncertainty in many parameters. Accumulated errors resulting from these uncertainties are usually pooled into the estimates of evaporation rates. In this paper, a physically based method with minimum empirical parameters is used to evaluate historical and current evaporation estimates from the DS. The more likely figures for historical and current evaporation rates from the DS were 1,500-1,600 and 1,200-1,250 mm per annum, respectively. Results obtained are congruent with field observations and with more elaborate procedures.

Interannual Variation of Surface Circulation in the Japan/East Sea due to External Forcings and Intrinsic Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Byoung-Ju; Cho, Seong Hun; Jung, Hee Seok; Lee, Sang-Ho; Byun, Do-Seong; Kwon, Kyungman

2018-03-01

The interannual variation of surface ocean currents can be as large as seasonal variation in the Japan/East Sea (JES). To identify the major factors that cause such interannual variability of surface ocean circulation in the JES, surface circulation was simulated from 1998 to 2009 using a three-dimensional model. Contributions of atmospheric forcing (ATM), open boundary data (OBC), and intrinsic variability (ITV) of the surface flow in the JES on the interannual variability of surface ocean circulation were separately examined using numerical simulations. Variability in surface circulation was quantified in terms of variance in sea surface height, 100-m depth water temperature, and surface currents. ITV was found to be the dominant factor that induced interannual variabilities of surface circulation, the main path of the East Korea Warm Current (EKWC), and surface kinetic energy on a time scale of 2-4 years. OBC and ATM were secondary factors contributing to the interannual variation of surface circulation. Interannual variation of ATM changed the separation latitude of EKWC and increased the variability of surface circulation in the Ulleung Basin. Interannual variation of OBC enhanced low-frequency changes in surface circulation and eddies in the Yamato Basin. It also modulated basin-wide uniform oscillations of sea level. This study suggests that precise estimation of initial conditions using data assimilation is essential for long-term prediction of surface circulation in the JES.

Reconstruction of Local Sea Levels at South West Pacific Islands—A Multiple Linear Regression Approach (1988-2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, V.; Melet, A.; Meyssignac, B.; Ganachaud, A.; Kessler, W. S.; Singh, A.; Aucan, J.

2018-02-01

Rising sea levels are a critical concern in small island nations. The problem is especially serious in the western south Pacific, where the total sea level rise over the last 60 years has been up to 3 times the global average. In this study, we aim at reconstructing sea levels at selected sites in the region (Suva, Lautoka—Fiji, and Nouméa—New Caledonia) as a multilinear regression (MLR) of atmospheric and oceanic variables. We focus on sea level variability at interannual-to-interdecadal time scales, and trend over the 1988-2014 period. Local sea levels are first expressed as a sum of steric and mass changes. Then a dynamical approach is used based on wind stress curl as a proxy for the thermosteric component, as wind stress curl anomalies can modulate the thermocline depth and resultant sea levels via Rossby wave propagation. Statistically significant predictors among wind stress curl, halosteric sea level, zonal/meridional wind stress components, and sea surface temperature are used to construct a MLR model simulating local sea levels. Although we are focusing on the local scale, the global mean sea level needs to be adjusted for. Our reconstructions provide insights on key drivers of sea level variability at the selected sites, showing that while local dynamics and the global signal modulate sea level to a given extent, most of the variance is driven by regional factors. On average, the MLR model is able to reproduce 82% of the variance in island sea level, and could be used to derive local sea level projections via downscaling of climate models.

Acceleration of Sea Level Rise Over Malaysian Seas from Satellite Altimeter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamid, A. I. A.; Din, A. H. M.; Khalid, N. F.; Omar, K. M.

2016-09-01

Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level trend over Malaysian seas based on the combination of multi-mission satellite altimeters over a period of 23 years. Eight altimeter missions are used to derive the absolute sea level from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS). Data verification is then carried out to verify the satellite derived sea level rise data with tidal data. Eight selected tide gauge stations from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak are chosen for this data verification. The pattern and correlation of both measurements of sea level anomalies (SLA) are evaluated over the same period in each area in order to produce comparable results. Afterwards, the time series of the sea level trend is quantified using robust fit regression analysis. The findings clearly show that the absolute sea level trend is rising and varying over the Malaysian seas with the rate of sea level varies and gradually increase from east to west of Malaysia. Highly confident and correlation level of the 23 years measurement data with an astonishing root mean square difference permits the absolute sea level trend of the Malaysian seas has raised at the rate 3.14 ± 0.12 mm yr-1 to 4.81 ± 0.15 mm yr-1 for the chosen sub-areas, with an overall mean of 4.09 ± 0.12 mm yr-1. This study hopefully offers a beneficial sea level information to be applied in a wide range of related environmental and climatology issue such as flood and global warming.

Fish immune responses to parasitic copepod (namely sea lice) infection.

PubMed

Fast, Mark D

2014-04-01

Parasitic copepods, in particular sea lice, have considerable impacts upon global freshwater and marine fisheries, with major economic consequences recognized primarily in aquaculture. Sea lice have been a contentious issue with regards to interactions between farmed and wild populations of fish, in particular salmonids, and their potential for detrimental effects at a population level. The following discussion will pertain to aquatic parasitic copepod species for which we have significant information on the host-parasite interaction and host response to infection (Orders Cyclopoida, Poecilostomatoida and Siphonostomatoida). This review evaluates prior research in terms of contributions to understanding parasite stage specific responses by the host, and in many cases draws upon model organisms like Lepeophtheirus salmonis and Atlantic salmon to convey important concepts in fish responses to parasitic copepod infection. The article discusses TH1 and TH2-like host responses in light of parasite immunomodulation of the host, current methods of immunological stimulation and where the current and future work in this field is heading. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scale-free distribution of Dead Sea sinkholes: Observations and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yizhaq, H.; Ish-Shalom, C.; Raz, E.; Ashkenazy, Y.

2017-05-01

There are currently more than 5500 sinkholes along the Dead Sea in Israel. These were formed due to the dissolution of subsurface salt layers as a result of the replacement of hypersaline groundwater by fresh brackish groundwater. This process has been associated with a sharp decline in the Dead Sea water level, currently more than 1 m/yr, resulting in a lower water table that has allowed the intrusion of fresher brackish water. We studied the distribution of the sinkhole sizes and found that it is scale free with a power law exponent close to 2. We constructed a stochastic cellular automata model to understand the observed scale-free behavior and the growth of the sinkhole area in time. The model consists of a lower salt layer and an upper soil layer in which cavities that develop in the lower layer lead to collapses in the upper layer. The model reproduces the observed power law distribution without involving the threshold behavior commonly associated with criticality.

Adaptation to Sea Level Rise in Coastal Units of the National Park Service (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beavers, R. L.

2010-12-01

83 National Park Service (NPS) units contain nearly 12,000 miles of coastal, estuarine and Great Lakes shoreline and their associated resources. Iconic natural features exist along active shorelines in NPS units, including, e.g., Cape Cod, Padre Island, Hawaii Volcanoes, and the Everglades. Iconic cultural resources managed by NPS include the Cape Hatteras Lighthouse, Fort Sumter, the Golden Gate, and heiaus and fish traps along the coast of Hawaii. Impacts anticipated from sea level rise include inundation and flooding of beaches and low lying marshes, shoreline erosion of coastal areas, and saltwater intrusion into the water table. These impacts and other coastal hazards will threaten park beaches, marshes, and other resources and values; alter the viability of coastal roads; and require the NPS to re-evaluate the financial, safety, and environmental implications of maintaining current projects and implementing future projects in ocean and coastal parks in the context of sea level rise. Coastal erosion will increase as sea levels rise. Barrier islands along the coast of Louisiana and North Carolina may have already passed the threshold for maintaining island integrity in any scenario of sea level rise (U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Program Report 4.1). Consequently, sea level rise is expected to hasten the disappearance of historic coastal villages, coastal wetlands, forests, and beaches, and threaten coastal roads, homes, and businesses. While sea level is rising in most coastal parks, some parks are experiencing lower water levels due to isostatic rebound and lower lake levels. NPS funded a Coastal Vulnerability Project to evaluate the physical and geologic factors affecting 25 coastal parks. The USGS Open File Reports for each park are available at http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/. These reports were designed to inform park planning efforts. NPS conducted a Storm Vulnerability Project to provide ocean and coastal National Park units with Natural, Cultural and Historic Resource-based data products and management documents that will aid the parks in better managing aspects of storm-preparedness and post-storm response and recovery. These results as well as specific efforts to address vulnerability of NPS facilities and natural and cultural resources to sea level rise will be discussed. NPS is also coordinating with NOAA to fill a new position for coastal adaptation and apply the information learned from research, vulnerability studies, and work with partners to develop adaptation strategies for coastal and ocean parks. To adapt to sea level rise, NPS will develop strong policies, guidance, and interpretive materials to help parks take actions that will increase the resilience of ocean and coastal park biological and geologic resources, reduce inappropriate stressors and greenhouse gas emissions in ocean and coastal parks, and educate the public about the need for comprehensive, swift and effective measures that will help the NPS conserve ocean and coastal park resources for future generations.

Constraints on the thermosteric component of Last Interglacial sea level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shackleton, S. A.; Severinghaus, J. P.; Petrenko, V. V.; Dyonisius, M.; Hmiel, B.

2016-12-01

With global temperatures 1 to 2°C above preindustrial, but sea level exceeding current levels by upwards of 8 meters, the Last Interglacial (LIG) period at 125 ka may provide valuable insight into Earth system constraints under future global warming. The relative contributions of thermal expansion and ice sheet loss to sea level rise over this period are of particular interest in seeking to improve sea level projections in the upcoming decades and beyond. Here we quantify this thermosteric component from a reconstruction of global ocean temperature over the LIG from atmospheric noble gases trapped in glacial ice. With no major sources or sinks outside of the ocean-atmosphere system, the relative changes in the atmospheric content of krypton, xenon, and nitrogen reflect changes in ocean gas storage. This storage is primarily governed by solubility and ocean temperature, making dKr/N2, dXe/N2­, and dXe/Kr unique tracers of globally integrated oceanic heat content. However, processes within the firn can fractionate these gases, and firn effects on these tracers must be removed to derive an ocean temperature. We present high precision measurements of these gas ratios along with isotopes of argon, krypton, and xenon in firn air withdrawn from the snowpack at Summit, Greenland. We use these isotopes to identify sources of fractionation within the firn and quantify their effects on the noble gas tracers, enabling a reconstruction of Last Interglacial ocean temperature.

New developments in spatial interpolation methods of Sea-Level Anomalies in the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troupin, Charles; Barth, Alexander; Beckers, Jean-Marie; Pascual, Ananda

2014-05-01

The gridding of along-track Sea-Level Anomalies (SLA) measured by a constellation of satellites has numerous applications in oceanography, such as model validation, data assimilation or eddy tracking. Optimal Interpolation (OI) is often the preferred method for this task, as it leads to the lowest expected error and provides an error field associated to the analysed field. However, the numerical cost of the method may limit its utilization in situations where the number of data points is significant. Furthermore, the separation of non-adjacent regions with OI requires adaptation of the code, leading to a further increase of the numerical cost. To solve these issues, the Data-Interpolating Variational Analysis (DIVA), a technique designed to produce gridded from sparse in situ measurements, is applied on SLA data in the Mediterranean Sea. DIVA and OI have been shown to be equivalent (provided some assumptions on the covariances are made). The main difference lies in the covariance function, which is not explicitly formulated in DIVA. The particular spatial and temporal distributions of measurements required adaptation in the Software tool (data format, parameter determinations, ...). These adaptation are presented in the poster. The daily analysed and error fields obtained with this technique are compared with available products such as the gridded field from the Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic data (AVISO) data server. The comparison reveals an overall good agreement between the products. The time evolution of the mean error field evidences the need of a large number of simultaneous altimetry satellites: in period during which 4 satellites are available, the mean error is on the order of 17.5%, while when only 2 satellites are available, the error exceeds 25%. Finally, we propose the use sea currents to improve the results of the interpolation, especially in the coastal area. These currents can be constructed from the bathymetry or extracted from a HF radar located in the Balearic Sea.

A search for scale in sea-level studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larsen, C.E.; Clark, I.

2006-01-01

Many researchers assume a proportional relationship among the atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and sea level. Thus, the rate of sea-level rise should increase in concert with the documented exponential increase in CO2. Although sea surface temperature has increased in places over the past century and short-term sea level rose abruptly during the 1990s, it is difficult to demonstrate a proportional relationship using existing geologic or historic records. Tide gauge records in the United States cover too short a time interval to verify acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise, although multicentury tide gauge and staff records from the Netherlands and Sweden suggest a mid-19th-century acceleration in sea-level rise. Reconstructions of sea-level changes for the past 1000 years derived using benthic foraminifer data from salt marshes along the East Coast of the United States suggest an increased rate of relative sea-level rise beginning in the 1600s. Geologic records of relative sea-level rise for the past 6000 years are available for several sites along the US East Coast from 14C-dated basal peat below salt marshes and estuarine sediments. When these three scales of sea-level variation are integrated, adjusted for postglacial isostatic movement, and replotted, the range of variation in sea level suggested by basal peat ages is within ??1 meter of the long-term trend. The reconstruction from Long Island Sound data shows a linear rise in sea level beginning in the mid-1600s at a rate consistent with the historic record of mean high water. Long-term tide gauge records from Europe and North America show similar trends since the mid-19th century. There is no clear proportional exponential increase in the rate of sea-level rise. If proportionality exists among sea level, atmospheric CO2, and temperature, there may be a significant time lag before an anthropogenic increase in the rate of sea-level rise occurs.

Variability and change of sea level and its components in the Indo-Pacific region during the altimetry era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Quran; Zhang, Xuebin; Church, John A.; Hu, Jianyu

2017-03-01

Previous studies have shown that regional sea level exhibits interannual and decadal variations associated with the modes of climate variability. A better understanding of those low-frequency sea level variations benefits the detection and attribution of climate change signals. Nonetheless, the contributions of thermosteric, halosteric, and mass sea level components to sea level variability and trend patterns remain unclear. By focusing on signals associated with dominant climate modes in the Indo-Pacific region, we estimate the interannual and decadal fingerprints and trend of each sea level component utilizing a multivariate linear regression of two adjoint-based ocean reanalyses. Sea level interannual, decadal, and trend patterns primarily come from thermosteric sea level (TSSL). Halosteric sea level (HSSL) is of regional importance in the Pacific Ocean on decadal time scale and dominates sea level trends in the northeast subtropical Pacific. The compensation between TSSL and HSSL is identified in their decadal variability and trends. The interannual and decadal variability of temperature generally peak at subsurface around 100 m but that of salinity tend to be surface-intensified. Decadal temperature and salinity signals extend deeper into the ocean in some regions than their interannual equivalents. Mass sea level (MassSL) is critical for the interannual and decadal variability of sea level over shelf seas. Inconsistencies exist in MassSL trend patterns among various estimates. This study highlights regions where multiple processes work together to control sea level variability and change. Further work is required to better understand the interaction of different processes in those regions.

Arctic sea-ice syntheses: Charting across scope, scale, and knowledge systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Druckenmiller, M. L.; Perovich, D. K.; Francis, J. A.

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice supports and intersects a multitude of societal benefit areas, including regulating regional and global climates, structuring marine food webs, providing for traditional food provisioning by indigenous peoples, and constraining marine shipping and access. At the same time, sea ice is one of the most rapidly changing elements of the Arctic environment and serves as a source of key physical indicators for monitoring Arctic change. Before the present scientific interest in Arctic sea ice for climate research, it has long been, and remains, a focus of applied research for industry and national security. For generations, the icy coastal seas of the North have also provided a basis for the sharing of local and indigenous knowledge between Arctic residents and researchers, including anthropologists, biologists, and geoscientists. This presentation will summarize an ongoing review of existing synthesis studies of Arctic sea ice. We will chart efforts to achieve system-level understanding across geography, temporal scales, and the ecosystem services that Arctic sea ice supports. In doing so, we aim to illuminate the role of interdisciplinary science, together with local and indigenous experts, in advancing knowledge of the roles of sea ice in the Arctic system and beyond, reveal the historical and scientific evolution of sea-ice research, and assess current gaps in system-scale understanding.

Airborne geophysics for mesoscale observations of polar sea ice in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendricks, S.; Haas, C.; Krumpen, T.; Eicken, H.; Mahoney, A. R.

2016-12-01

Sea ice thickness is an important geophysical parameter with a significant impact on various processes of the polar energy balance. It is classified as Essential Climate Variable (ECV), however the direct observations of the large ice-covered oceans are limited due to the harsh environmental conditions and logistical constraints. Sea-ice thickness retrieval by the means of satellite remote sensing is an active field of research, but current observational capabilities are not able to capture the small scale variability of sea ice thickness and its evolution in the presence of surface melt. We present an airborne observation system based on a towed electromagnetic induction sensor that delivers long range measurements of sea ice thickness for a wide range of sea ice conditions. The purpose-built sensor equipment can be utilized from helicopters and polar research aircraft in multi-role science missions. While airborne EM induction sounding is used in sea ice research for decades, the future challenge is the development of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) platform that meet the requirements for low-level EM sea ice surveys in terms of range and altitude of operations. The use of UAV's could enable repeated sea ice surveys during the the polar night, when manned operations are too dangerous and the observational data base is presently very sparse.

The South Pole and the Ross Sea

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

This image shows a rare clear view of the South Pole (lower right) and the Ross Sea, Antarctica. The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) acquired the scene on December 26, 2001. The geographic South Pole is located in the center of Antarctica, at an altitude of 2,900 meters (9,300 feet). It rests on a continent-wide ice sheet that is 2,870 m thick, with the underlying bedrock only 30 m (98 feet) above sea level. The ice underlying the South Pole is as much as 140,000 years old, and is currently accumulating at about 82 cm (32 inches) per year. Roughly 2,500 km (1,550 miles) away is the green water of the Ross Sea, which indicates the presence of large numbers of phytoplankton. This is a highly productive part of the world's oceans. Also note the ice gathered around McMurdo Sound, seen toward the lefthand shoreline of the Ross Sea, at the edge of the Ross Ice Shelf. According to National Science Foundation researchers, this ice is making it difficult for penguins to reach their food supply. Separating the continental Antarctic ice sheet from the Ross Sea are the Queen Maud Mountains and the Ross Ice Shelf. Image courtesy the SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and ORBIMAGE

Dynamics of Andaman Sea circulation and its role in connecting the equatorial Indian Ocean to the Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, Abhisek; Shankar, D.; McCreary, J. P.; Vinayachandran, P. N.; Mukherjee, A.

2017-04-01

Circulation in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is driven not only by local winds, but are also strongly forced by the reflection of equatorial Kelvin waves (EKWs) from the eastern boundary of the Indian Ocean. The equatorial influence attains its peak during the monsoon-transition period when strong eastward currents force the strong EKWs along the equator. The Andaman Sea, lying between the Andaman and Nicobar island chains to its west and Indonesia, Thailand, and Myanmar to the south, east, and north, is connected to the equatorial ocean and the BoB by three primary passages, the southern (6°N), middle (10°N), and northern (15°N) channels. We use ocean circulation models, together with satellite altimeter data, to study the pathways by which equatorial signals pass through the Andaman Sea to the BoB and associated dynamical interactions in the process. The mean coastal circulation within the Andaman Sea and around the islands is primarily driven by equatorial forcing, with the local winds forcing a weak sea-level signal. On the other hand, the current forced by local winds is comparable to that forced remotely from the equator. Our results suggest that the Andaman and Nicobar Islands not only influence the circulation within the Andaman Sea, but also significantly alter the circulation in the interior bay and along the east coast of India, implying that they need to be represented accurately in numerical models of the Indian Ocean.

Contemporary genetic structure and postglacial demographic history of the black scorpionfish, Scorpaena porcus, in the Mediterranean and the Black Seas.

PubMed

Boissin, E; Micu, D; Janczyszyn-Le Goff, M; Neglia, V; Bat, L; Todorova, V; Panayotova, M; Kruschel, C; Macic, V; Milchakova, N; Keskin, Ç; Anastasopoulou, A; Nasto, I; Zane, L; Planes, S

2016-05-01

Understanding the distribution of genetic diversity in the light of past demographic events linked with climatic shifts will help to forecast evolutionary trajectories of ecosystems within the current context of climate change. In this study, mitochondrial sequences and microsatellite loci were analysed using traditional population genetic approaches together with Bayesian dating and the more recent approximate Bayesian computation scenario testing. The genetic structure and demographic history of a commercial fish, the black scorpionfish, Scorpaena porcus, was investigated throughout the Mediterranean and Black Seas. The results suggest that the species recently underwent population expansions, in both seas, likely concomitant with the warming period following the Last Glacial Maximum, 20 000 years ago. A weak contemporaneous genetic differentiation was identified between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. However, the genetic diversity was similar for populations of the two seas, suggesting a high number of colonizers entered the Black Sea during the interglacial period and/or the presence of a refugial population in the Black Sea during the glacial period. Finally, within seas, an east/west genetic differentiation in the Adriatic seems to prevail, whereas the Black Sea does not show any structured spatial genetic pattern of its population. Overall, these results suggest that the Black Sea is not that isolated from the Mediterranean, and both seas revealed similar evolutionary patterns related to climate change and changes in sea level. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Carbonate Platform Record of Neogene Paleoenvironmental Changes in the Indian Ocean (Maldives)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betzler, C.; Kroon, D.; Lindhorst, S.; Reolid, J.; Lüdmann, T.; Eberli, G. P.

2017-12-01

The Maldives Inner Sea is a natural sediment trap which preserves a 25 Myrs record of paleoenvironmental changes in the Indian Ocean. This encompasses records of past changes in sea level, productivity, and circulation, but also of the dust influx. As such, the sedimentary succession, which has been cored during IODP Expedition 359, provides the opportunity to study the evolution and the dynamics of the South Asian Monsoon. This amends the reconstruction developed in other, mainly siliciclastic records such as in the Bengal and Indus fan deposits. Seismic-, downhole-, and core data show that windblown dust has been deposited in the Maldives since 22 Ma. However, from 22 to 13 Ma the sedimentation in the Maldives under a weak monsoon was mainly controlled by sea level changes. At 13 Ma this situation changed, and wind driven currents started to control sedimentation, as reflected by the onset of widespread drift deposits. This is interpreted to reflect a more vigorous atmospheric circulation. Linked to the current onset, there was a rise of productivity and a coeval expansion of the oxygen minimum zone. Changes in magnetic susceptibility during the Late Miocene and Pliocene, as imaged in downhole magnetic susceptibility logs are interpreted to reflect fluctuations of the dust influx, mainly from the Indian subcontinent. The combination of XRF data and non-carbonate grain-size data allows a further and detailed reconstruction of variations in the dust influx and bottom-current changes for the last 4 Myrs.

The effect of α1‐adrenergic blockade on post‐exercise brachial artery flow‐mediated dilatation at sea level and high altitude

PubMed Central

Tremblay, Joshua C.; Hansen, Alex B.; Howe, Connor A.; Willie, Chris K.; Stembridge, Mike; Green, Daniel J.; Hoiland, Ryan L.; Subedi, Prajan; Anholm, James D.; Ainslie, Philip N.

2016-01-01

Key points Our objective was to quantify endothelial function (via brachial artery flow‐mediated dilatation) at sea level (344 m) and high altitude (3800 m) at rest and following both maximal exercise and 30 min of moderate‐intensity cycling exercise with and without administration of an α1‐adrenergic blockade.Brachial endothelial function did not differ between sea level and high altitude at rest, nor following maximal exercise.At sea level, endothelial function decreased following 30 min of moderate‐intensity exercise, and this decrease was abolished with α1‐adrenergic blockade. At high altitude, endothelial function did not decrease immediately after 30 min of moderate‐intensity exercise, and administration of α1‐adrenergic blockade resulted in an increase in flow‐mediated dilatation.Our data indicate that post‐exercise endothelial function is modified at high altitude (i.e. prolonged hypoxaemia). The current study helps to elucidate the physiological mechanisms associated with high‐altitude acclimatization, and provides insight into the relationship between sympathetic nervous activity and vascular endothelial function. Abstract We examined the hypotheses that (1) at rest, endothelial function would be impaired at high altitude compared to sea level, (2) endothelial function would be reduced to a greater extent at sea level compared to high altitude after maximal exercise, and (3) reductions in endothelial function following moderate‐intensity exercise at both sea level and high altitude are mediated via an α1‐adrenergic pathway. In a double‐blinded, counterbalanced, randomized and placebo‐controlled design, nine healthy participants performed a maximal‐exercise test, and two 30 min sessions of semi‐recumbent cycling exercise at 50% peak output following either placebo or α1‐adrenergic blockade (prazosin; 0.05 mg kg −1). These experiments were completed at both sea‐level (344 m) and high altitude (3800 m). Blood pressure (finger photoplethysmography), heart rate (electrocardiogram), oxygen saturation (pulse oximetry), and brachial artery blood flow and shear rate (ultrasound) were recorded before, during and following exercise. Endothelial function assessed by brachial artery flow‐mediated dilatation (FMD) was measured before, immediately following and 60 min after exercise. Our findings were: (1) at rest, FMD remained unchanged between sea level and high altitude (placebo P = 0.287; prazosin: P = 0.110); (2) FMD remained unchanged after maximal exercise at sea level and high altitude (P = 0.244); and (3) the 2.9 ± 0.8% (P = 0.043) reduction in FMD immediately after moderate‐intensity exercise at sea level was abolished via α1‐adrenergic blockade. Conversely, at high altitude, FMD was unaltered following moderate‐intensity exercise, and administration of α1‐adrenergic blockade elevated FMD (P = 0.032). Our results suggest endothelial function is differentially affected by exercise when exposed to hypobaric hypoxia. These findings have implications for understanding the chronic impacts of hypoxaemia on exercise, and the interactions between the α1‐adrenergic pathway and endothelial function. PMID:28032333

GEOdetic Data assimilation and EStimation of references for climate change InvEstigation. An overall presentation of the French GEODESIE project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coulot, David; Richard, Jean-Yves

2017-04-01

Many major indicators of climate change are monitored with space observations (sea level rise from satellite altimetry, ice melting from dedicated satellites, etc.). This monitoring is highly dependent on references (positions and velocities of ground observing instruments, orbits of satellites, etc.) that only geodesy can provide. The current accuracy of these references does not permit to fully support the challenges that the constantly evolving Earth system gives rise to, and can consequently limit the accuracy of these indicators. For this reason, in the framework of the Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS), stringent requirements are fixed to the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) for the next decade: an accuracy at the level of 1 mm and a stability at the level of 0.1 mm/yr. This means an improvement of the current quality of ITRF by a factor of 5-10. Improving the quality of the geodetic references is an issue which requires a thorough reassessment of the methodologies involved. The most relevant and promising method to improve this quality is the direct combination (Combination at Observation Level - COL) of the space-geodetic measurements used to compute the official references of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS). The GEODESIE project aims at (i) determining highly-accurate global and consistent references (time series of Terrestrial Reference Frames and Celestial Reference Frames, of Earth's Orientation Parameters, and orbits of Earth's observation satellites) and (ii) providing the geophysical and climate research communities with these references, for a better estimation of geocentric sea level rise, ice mass balance and on-going climate changes. Time series of sea levels computed from altimetric data and tide gauge records with these references (orbits of satellite altimeters, Terrestrial Reference Frames and related vertical velocities of stations) will also be provided. The geodetic references will be essential bases for Earth's observation and monitoring to support the challenges of the century. The geocentric time series of sea levels will permit to better apprehend (i) the drivers of the global mean sea level rise and of regional variations of sea level and (ii) the contribution of the global climate change induced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions to these drivers. All the results and computation and quality assessment reports will be available on a Website designed and opened in the Summer of 2017. This project, supported by the French Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) for the period 2017-2020, will be an unprecedented opportunity to provide the French Groupe de Recherche de Géodésie Spatiale (GRGS) with complete simulation and data processing capabilities to prepare the future arrival of space missions such as the European Geodetic Reference Antenna in SPace (E-GRASP) and to significantly contribute to the GGOS with accurate references.

Time series measurements of transient tracers and tracer-derived transport in the Deep Western Boundary Current between the Labrador Sea and the subtropical Atlantic Ocean at Line W

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, John N.; Smethie, William M.; Yashayev, Igor; Curry, Ruth; Azetsu-Scott, Kumiko

2016-11-01

Time series measurements of the nuclear fuel reprocessing tracer 129I and the gas ventilation tracer CFC-11 were undertaken on the AR7W section in the Labrador Sea (1997-2014) and on Line W (2004-2014), located over the US continental slope off Cape Cod, to determine advection and mixing time scales for the transport of Denmark Strait Overflow Water (DSOW) within the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC). Tracer measurements were also conducted in 2010 over the continental rise southeast of Bermuda to intercept the equatorward flow of DSOW by interior pathways. The Labrador Sea tracer and hydrographic time series data were used as input functions in a boundary current model that employs transit time distributions to simulate the effects of mixing and advection on downstream tracer distributions. Model simulations of tracer levels in the boundary current core and adjacent interior (shoulder) region with which mixing occurs were compared with the Line W time series measurements to determine boundary current model parameters. These results indicate that DSOW is transported from the Labrador Sea to Line W via the DWBC on a time scale of 5-6 years corresponding to a mean flow velocity of 2.7 cm/s while mixing between the core and interior regions occurs with a time constant of 2.6 years. A tracer section over the southern flank of the Bermuda rise indicates that the flow of DSOW that separated from the DWBC had undergone transport through interior pathways on a time scale of 9 years with a mixing time constant of 4 years.

Azimuth selection for sea level measurements using geodetic GPS receivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiaolei; Zhang, Qin; Zhang, Shuangcheng

2018-03-01

Based on analysis of Global Positioning System (GPS) multipath signals recorded by a geodetic GPS receiver, GPS Reflectometry (GPS-R) has demonstrated unique advantages in relation to sea level monitoring. Founded on multipath reflectometry theory, sea level changes can be measured by GPS-R through spectral analysis of recorded signal-to-noise ratio data. However, prior to estimating multipath parameters, it is necessary to define azimuth and elevation angle mask to ensure the reflecting zones are on water. Here, a method is presented to address azimuth selection, a topic currently under active development in the field of GPS-R. Data from three test sites: the Kachemak Bay GPS site PBAY in Alaska (USA), Friday Harbor GPS site SC02 in the San Juan Islands (USA), and Brest Harbor GPS site BRST in Brest (France) are analyzed. These sites are located in different multipath environments, from a rural coastal area to a busy harbor, and they experience different tidal ranges. Estimates by the GPS tide gauges at azimuths selected by the presented method are compared with measurements from physical tide gauges and acceptable correspondence found for all three sites.

Blended sea level anomaly fields with enhanced coastal coverage along the U.S. West Coast

PubMed Central

Risien, C.M.; Strub, P.T.

2016-01-01

We form a new ‘blended’ data set of sea level anomaly (SLA) fields by combining gridded daily fields derived from altimeter data with coastal tide gauge data. Within approximately 55–70 km of the coast, the altimeter data are discarded and replaced by a linear interpolation between the tide gauge and remaining offshore altimeter data. To create a common reference height for altimeter and tide gauge data, a 20-year mean is subtracted from each time series (from each tide gauge and altimeter grid point) before combining the data sets to form a blended mean sea level anomaly (SLA) data set. Daily mean fields are produced for the 22-year period 1 January 1993–31 December 2014. The primary validation compares geostrophic velocities calculated from the height fields and velocities measured at four moorings covering the north-south range of the new data set. The blended data set improves the alongshore (meridional) component of the currents, indicating an improvement in the cross-shelf gradient of the mean SLA data set. PMID:26927667

A Miocene wave-dominated estuarine system in the Paraíba Basin, northeastern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gandini, Rosana; Rossetti, Dilce de Fátima; Netto, Renata Guimarães; Góes, Ana Maria

2017-11-01

A number of publications have documented the effect of the Miocene transgression on several coasts of the world. However, this event is incompletely documented along the Brazilian margin, despite the existence of an impressive record of Miocene deposits exposed mostly as several coastal cliffs along more than 5000 km of distance. The transgressive nature of Miocene deposits, so far recognized only in a few localities of northeastern Brazil, needs to be amplified in order to better characterize the impact of the Miocene transgression in eastern South America. In this work, we provide facies analysis of early/middle Miocene strata exposed in the Paraíba Basin, northeastern Brazil, aiming reconstruct the depositional paleoenvironments and analyze their evolution within the context of relative sea-level fluctuations data. The results revealed deposits characterized by several features that were related to the action of tidal currents, such as alternating thicker/thinner forest packages, abundant reactivation surfaces, mud drapes and oppositely-dipping (herringbone) cross sets. These sedimentary structures were associated with an ichnological assemblage indicative of marine-influenced and brackish water, best represented by Ophiomorpha, Planolites-Palaeophycus-Thalassinoides and Thallassinoides-Planolites-Palaeophycus ichnofabrics. Sedimentation occurred in environments consisting of estuarine channel, estuarine central basin, tidal inlet/tidal channel, tidal delta/washover, tidal flat/shoal and foreshore, which were related to an estuarine setting, at least in part of a wave-dominated type. Analysis of facies stratal patterns led to suggest that the estuarine deposits of the Paraíba Basin reflect a rise in relative sea level probably during the transgressive and/or highstand stage of a depositional sequence formed directly overlying Cretaceous rocks. This rise can be correlated with the worldwide early/mid Miocene marine transgression. However, while the eustatic sea level remained rising through the middle Miocene, the estuarine sedimentation in the study area was cut off, being replaced by a regional unconformity marked by lateritic paleosols. Thus, a relative sea-level fall is recorded in the Paraíba Basin while the eustatic sea level remained rising through the middle Miocene, before its fall in the Tortonian. It follows that other factors, such as tectonics, is proposed to explain the mid-Miocene fall in sea level along the Paraíba coast, while the eustatic sea level was rising.

Nano-tags for neonates and ocean-mediated swimming behaviours linked to rapid dispersal of hatchling sea turtles

PubMed Central

Scott, Rebecca; Biastoch, Arne; Roder, Christian; Stiebens, Victor A.; Eizaguirre, Christophe

2014-01-01

Dispersal during juvenile life stages drives the life-history evolution and dynamics of many marine vertebrate populations. However, the movements of juvenile organisms, too small to track using conventional satellite telemetry devices, remain enigmatic. For sea turtles, this led to the paradigm of the ‘lost years' since hatchlings disperse widely with ocean currents. Recently, advances in the miniaturization of tracking technology have permitted the application of nano-tags to track cryptic organisms. Here, the novel use of acoustic nano-tags on neonate loggerhead turtle hatchlings enabled us to witness first-hand their dispersal and behaviour during their first day at sea. We tracked hatchlings distances of up to 15 km and documented their rapid transport (up to 60 m min−1) with surface current flows passing their natal areas. Tracking was complemented with laboratory observations to monitor swimming behaviours over longer periods which highlighted (i) a positive correlation between swimming activity levels and body size and (ii) population-specific swimming behaviours (e.g. nocturnal inactivity) suggesting local oceanic conditions drive the evolution of innate swimming behaviours. Knowledge of the swimming behaviours of small organisms is crucial to improve the accuracy of ocean model simulations used to predict the fate of these organisms and determine resultant population-level implications into adulthood. PMID:25339720

Quantifying the impact of the major driving mechanisms of inter-annual variability of salinity in the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Núñez-Riboni, Ismael; Akimova, Anna

2017-05-01

New 67-year long (1948-2014) gridded time series of salinity in the North Sea at all depths allowed to quantify, spatially resolved, the amount of inter-annual salinity variability explained by each of its driving mechanisms: sea level pressure (SLP), precipitation, river run-off, zonal and meridional winds and currents over the eastern North Atlantic. For the current data, not only annual averages but also their deviations, as measure of turbulence, were considered. Our results summarize and expand the knowledge gathered in the last 50 years about the mechanisms driving inter-annual variability of salinity in the North Sea. Three mechanisms, uncorrelated with each other and acting over separate regions of the North Sea, arise as most important: (1) River run-off from continental Europe explains 50-80% of inter-annual salinity variations at lag 0 in the Southern and German Bights and the Norwegian Trench up to the connection with the North Atlantic, down to the seabed near the coasts and to the deep Norwegian Trench (100 m); (2) Remote variations of salinity in the Rockall Trough explain 70% of salinity variations of the tongue of high salinity in the northwestern North Sea with a lag of one year and down the water column; (3) The Neva discharge explains 60% of salinity changes in Skagerrak and southern Norwegian trench at lag 0. An explanation for this correlation might be the Baltic freshwater outflow being modulated by the Neva discharge through intensification of the estuarine gravitational circulation. We confirmed known relations between river run-off, precipitation over continental Europe, SLP over northern Europe and zonal wind over western Europe. Linked to these changes, we found also changes of meridional wind north of Scotland favoring eastward Ekman transport of salty North Atlantic waters into the North Sea off the Norwegian coast. Excluding this only case, we found no significant correlation between wind-driven currents and North Sea salinity changes. This result supports the notion that the Atlantic inflow into the North Sea is mainly density-driven. Salinity in the region east of Scotland and northern England was alienated from all driving mechanisms tested. An explanation was found in concomitant canceling changes of the intensity of the North Sea circulation and the discharge of the river Tay.

iss009e18679

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-08-17

ISS009-E-18679 (17 August 2004) --- Ural River Delta, Kazakhstan is featured in this image photographed by an Expedition 9 crewmember on the International Space Station (ISS). The Ural River is one of two major rivers (the other river is the Volga) that empty into the northern coast of the Caspian Sea, creating extensive wetlands. This image shows details of the Ural's tree-like (or “digitate”) delta. According to NASA scientists studying the Space Station imagery, this type of delta forms when wave action is low and sediment content in the river is high. New distributary channels form in the delta when the river breaches natural levees formed by sediment deposition. The dark regions running along the coast are the wetlands that support high biodiversity due to the unique environment and relative isolation of the Caspian Sea. The coastal wetlands are especially important to migrating birds as an important stop-over along the Asian flyway. The Ural River's trek to the Caspian is long — roughly 2400 kilometers (1500 miles) from the Ural Mountains in Russia south to empty into the northern Caspian Sea in Kazakhstan. Although the current sea level of the Caspian is more than 26 meters below global mean sea level the water levels have risen roughly 2 meters since 1980. This has lead to flooding of much of the coastal region, including the Ural delta, and endangers these coastal wetland environments. The coastal flooding has also impacted the oil exploration infrastructure bordering the Caspian coastline, scientists report.

High blood cadmium levels are not associated with consumption of traditional food among the Inuit of Nunavik

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rey, M.; Turcotte, F.; Lapointe, C.

1997-09-01

High levels of cadmium in the liver and kidneys of caribous and sea mammals of the Canadian Arctic have led to recommendations to remove such offal from the traditional diet. Blood cadmium levels have been found to be very high in samples of Inuit volunteers, hence the hypothesis that the Inuit might be exposed to cadmium through their diet. This survey of a population-based random sample of Nunavik residents (n = 518) confirms that blood cadmium of Inuit is indeed very high by comparison to published reports. Blood cadmium levels are closely associated with the current smoking status and aremore » independent of dietary patterns among nonsmokers. Plasma omega-3 fatty acids concentrations have been used to assess the reliability of the dietary information collected by questionnaires and to test for any association of blood cadmium with the consumption of sea mammals. Blood cadmium levels are not related to the reported consumption of sea mammals. Blood cadmium levels are very high among smokers and are associated with levels of exposure to tobacco. Among nonsmoking Inuit, blood cadmium levels are comparable with those reported in nonsmokers elsewhere in the world. In reference to international standards, blood cadmium concentrations are high enough among the Inuit to warrant energetic public health interventions. 28 refs., 5 tabs.« less

Modeling Holocene Barrier Island Morphodynamics and Potential Future Response to Sea- Level Rise, Outer Banks, North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, L. J.; List, J. H.; Williams, S. J.; Stolper, D.

2006-12-01

A morphological-behavior model, GEOMBEST, which simulates the evolution of coastal morphology and stratigraphy resulting from changes in sea level and sediment supply provides insight into how barriers evolve over time scales ranging from decades to millenia. The model is based upon behavior rules originating from "Bruun rule" concepts, with additional parameters to allow simulation of more complex real-world scenarios. Morphological evolution in the model is driven by disequilibrium between the shoreface and a user-specified theoretical equilibrium profile that maintains its vertical position relative to sea level. As sea level continues rising to an estimated 48 cm above current MSL by AD 2100 (IPCC 2001) and hurricanes of potentially greater intensity impact the coast, barrier islands will respond either by transgressing across underlying strata or by disintegrating and ultimately submerging. Recent studies suggest that some barriers along the U.S. East Coast will break up and become submerged within decades. Other studies show that barriers in Louisiana have already submerged while others are in the process of narrowing in place and submerging. Several factors determine barrier island response to sea-level rise. These include initial topography and morphology of the barrier, underlying geologic framework, availability and supply of sediment, rate of sea-level rise, frequency and intensity of coastal storms, and anthropogenic modifications to the coast. Sensitivity analyses conducted in GEOMBEST suggest that of these factors, barrier-island response is most sensitive to the rate of sea-level rise. The Holocene evolution of the Outer Banks and potential future responses to sea-level rise are explored for a 25-km stretch of coast between Rodanthe and Cape Hatteras, NC using GEOMBEST. An 8500-year hindcast simulation for the study area reproduces closely the morphology and stratigraphy of the modern barrier with approximately 5 x 109 m3 excavated from the Pleistocene substrate, liberating a volume of material sufficient to construct Diamond Shoals. This hindcast simulation serves as the basis for forward simulations of potential future barrier island evolution. A series of model runs based on the low- (0.09 m), mid- (0.48 m) and upper- (0.88 m) range of IPCC (2001) estimates for sea-level rise by the year 2100, suggest the barrier would migrate at rates of approximately 2, 6 and 10 m/yr, respectively. The latter two results would represent an increase over modern long-term erosion rates in the study area, which serve as a proxy for migration rates. Model simulations of barrier response to 4 and 6 m of sea-level rise by AD 2100 (Overpeck et al., 2006), result in model-generated migration rates of 43 and 68 m/yr, respectively. These rates far exceed the highest average long-term barrier island erosion rates observed today along the Louisiana Coast where the Chandeleur Islands disintegrated in response to Hurricane Katrina. If observations in Louisiana can be applied to barrier islands in North Carolina, then we can expect the Outer Banks to become vulnerable to disintegration when migration rates reach approximately 15-20 m/yr. The five forward simulations for the study area suggest rates in this range may be achieved in the Outer Banks if sea-level rise by AD 2100 exceeds IPCC (2001) estimates.

Hydrodynamic patterns favouring sea urchin recruitment in coastal areas: A Mediterranean study case.

PubMed

Farina, S; Quattrocchi, G; Guala, I; Cucco, A

2018-05-11

In invertebrate fisheries, sea urchin harvesting continues to grow with dramatic consequences for benthic ecosystems. The identification of areas with a marked natural recruitment and the mechanisms regulating it is crucial for the conservation of benthic communities and for planning the sustainable harvesting. This study evaluates the spatial distribution and density of recruits of the edible sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus along the Sinis + Peninsula (Sardinia) and explores its significant relationships with the local oceanographic features. Our results reveal that recruitment is favoured in areas with slow currents and high levels of confinement and trapping of the water masses. Analysis of the residual circulation indicates that the presence of local standing circulation structures promotes the sea urchin recruitment process. Our findings emphasize the importance of managing local sea urchin harvesting as a system of populations with their demographic influence mainly dependent on the most important ecological driver that is the recruitment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robustness of observation-based decadal sea level variability in the Indo-Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nidheesh, A. G.; Lengaigne, M.; Vialard, J.; Izumo, T.; Unnikrishnan, A. S.; Meyssignac, B.; Hamlington, B.; de Boyer Montegut, C.

2017-07-01

We examine the consistency of Indo-Pacific decadal sea level variability in 10 gridded, observation-based sea level products for the 1960-2010 period. Decadal sea level variations are robust in the Pacific, with more than 50% of variance explained by decadal modulation of two flavors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (classical ENSO and Modoki). Amplitude of decadal sea level variability is weaker in the Indian Ocean than in the Pacific. All data sets indicate a transmission of decadal sea level signals from the western Pacific to the northwest Australian coast through the Indonesian throughflow. The southern tropical Indian Ocean sea level variability is associated with decadal modulations of ENSO in reconstructions but not in reanalyses or in situ data set. The Pacific-independent Indian Ocean decadal sea level variability is not robust but tends to be maximum in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean. The inconsistency of Indian Ocean decadal variability across the sea level products calls for caution in making definitive conclusions on decadal sea level variability in this basin.

Gene transcription in sea otters (Enhydra lutris); development of a diagnostic tool for sea otter and ecosystem health

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowen, Lizabeth; Miles, A. Keith; Murray, Michael; Haulena, Martin; Tuttle, Judy; van Bonn, William; Adams, Lance; Bodkin, James L.; Ballachey, Brenda E.; Estes, James A.; Tinker, M. Tim; Keister, Robin; Stott, Jeffrey L.

2012-01-01

Gene transcription analysis for diagnosing or monitoring wildlife health requires the ability to distinguish pathophysiological change from natural variation. Herein, we describe methodology for the development of quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) assays to measure differential transcript levels of multiple immune function genes in the sea otter (Enhydra lutris); sea otter-specific qPCR primer sequences for the genes of interest are defined. We establish a ‘reference’ range of transcripts for each gene in a group of clinically healthy captive and free-ranging sea otters. The 10 genes of interest represent multiple physiological systems that play a role in immuno-modulation, inflammation, cell protection, tumour suppression, cellular stress response, xenobiotic metabolizing enzymes, antioxidant enzymes and cell–cell adhesion. The cycle threshold (CT) measures for most genes were normally distributed; the complement cytolysis inhibitor was the exception. The relative enumeration of multiple gene transcripts in simple peripheral blood samples expands the diagnostic capability currently available to assess the health of sea otters in situ and provides a better understanding of the state of their environment.

Sea-Level Rise Implications for Coastal Protection from Southern Mediterranean to the U.S.A. Atlantic Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail, Nabil; Williams, Jeffress

2013-04-01

This paper presents an assessment of global sea level rise and the need to incorporate projections of rise into management plans for coastal adaptation. It also discusses the performance of a shoreline revetment; M. Ali Seawall, placed to protect the land against flooding and overtopping at coastal site, within Abu Qir Bay, East of Alexandria, Egypt along the Nile Delta coast. The assessment is conducted to examine the adequacy of the seawall under the current and progressive effects of climate change demonstrated by the anticipated sea level rise during this century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) predicts that the Mediterranean will rise 30 cm to 1 meter this century. Coastal zone management of the bay coastline is of utmost significance to the protection of the low agricultural land and the industrial complex located in the rear side of the seawall. Moreover this joint research work highlights the similarity of the nature of current and anticipated coastal zone problems, at several locations around the world, and required adaptation and protection measures. For example many barrier islands in the world such as that in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts of the U.S., lowland and deltas such as in Italy and the Nile Delta, and many islands are also experiencing significant levels of erosion and flooding that are exacerbated by sea level rise. Global Climatic Changes: At a global scale, an example of the effects of accelerated climate changes was demonstrated. In recent years, the impacts of natural disasters are more and more severe on coastal lowland areas. With the threats of climate change, sea level rise storm surge, progressive storm and hurricane activities and potential subsidence, the reduction of natural disasters in coastal lowland areas receives increased attention. Yet many of their inhabitants are becoming increasingly vulnerable to flooding, and conversions of land to open ocean. These global changes were recently demonstrated in autumn 2010 when the storm Becky reached the Santander Bay, Spain. As reported by THESEUS, the FP-7 EU project (2009-2013), the peak of nearshore significant wave height was about 8 m, the storm surge reached 0.6 m, with tidal level of 90% of the tidal range. The latest storm in December 2010, which hit the Nile Delta and which was the severest in the last decades showed that generated surges, up to 1.0 m as well as a maximum of 7.5 m wave height in the offshore of Alexandria presented a major natural hazard in coastal zones in terms of wave run up and overtopping. Along the US Atlantic Coast, where Hurricane Sandy this autumn and Hurricane Irene in 2011 left chaos in their wakes, a perfect storm of rising sea levels and dense coastal development at high risk . Super storm Sandy sent a storm surge of 4-5 m onto New Jersey's and New York's fragile barrier island and urban shorelines, causing an estimated 70 billion (USD) in damages and widespread misery for coastal inhabitants. Sea Level Rise and Impact on Upgrade of Coastal Structures: Williams (2013) highlights in his recent paper that adaptation planning on national scales in the USA for projected sea-level rise of 0.5-2 m by A.D. 2100 is advisable. Further he points out that sea-level rise, as a major driving force of change for coastal regions, is becoming increasingly important as a hazard to humans and urban areas in the coastal zone worldwide as global climate change takes effect. During the 20th century, sea level began rising at a global average rate of 1.7 mm/yr (). The current average rise rate is 3.1 mm/yr, a 50% increase over the past two decades. Many regions are experiencing even greater rise rates due to local geophysical (e.g., Louisiana, Chesapeake Bay) and oceanographic (mid-Atlantic coast) forces. Further the Mississippi River Delta plain region of Louisiana has much higher than average rates of LRSL rise due to geologic factors such as subsidence and man-made alterations to the delta plain, wetlands, and coast. As a result the entire coast is highly erosional and highly vulnerable to sea-level rise and storms. Detailed mapping studies over the past two decades show that subject to sea-level rise, subsidence, frequent major storms, and reduced sediment budget. Sea-level rise, with high regional variability, is exhibiting acceleration and is expected to continue for centuries unless mitigation is enacted to reduce atmospheric carbon. Low lying coastal plain regions, deltas, and most islands are highly vulnerable. The assessment of Abu-Qir seawall included the review of the current-2011design and past upgrades since 1830. Hydrodynamic analyses were conducted to estimate wave height distributions, wave run up and overtopping over the seawall. Use has been made of the Modified ImSedTran-2D model (Ismail et.al, 2012) as well as universal design standards (EurOtop, 2008). Comparison of the predicted overtopping with the observed wave overtopping volumes during the 8hrs-2010 storm, allowed the verification of the used universal design tools. Based on the results for worst wave design scenarios and anticipated sea level rise after 50 years (50 cm), recommendations are given to increase the height of the seawall cap, to strengthen the beach top and back slope with a facility to drain storm water to increase coastal resilience. Recommendations: Protection of coastal fringes requires that new design alternatives to protect eroding lowland shorelines of deltas and barrier islands should be explored. These soft engineering alternatives are such as beach nourishment, sand dunes stabilization, and storm barriers. Use of integrated barrier island and coastal lagoons & wetlands would act as a buffer zone to defend main land. The sustainability of the integrated natural systems would require (1) barrier island and shoreline restoration (2) hydrologic and vegetation restoration of coastal lagoons, and (3) relocation of development in highly vulnerable areas. Such adaptation planning and restoration projects will require a major undertaking by national governments and international institutions. Joint research projects between international organizations such as: USA research centers ( USGS, NOAA, Corps of Engineers), EU sponsored project groups, EU coastal marine centers as well as other world wide coastal research institutes (CoRI, Alexandria) are encouraged to advance the state of the art on managing coasts to adapt to sea level rise employing cost-effective coastal protection technologies. References 1.Williams, S.J.,"Sea-Level Rise Implications for Coastal Regions", Journal of Coastal Research, Vol. 63, 2013. 2.Ismail, N.,Wiegel, R., "Sustainable Solutions for Coastal Zone Management of Lowland and River Delta Coastlines", Proc. International Conference- Littoral 2012, Ostende, Belgium, November 27-29, 2012. 3.Ismail, N., Iskander, M., and El-Sayed, W. "Assessment of Coastal Flooding at Southern Mediterranean with Global Outlook for Lowland Coastal Zones", Proc. International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ASCE, July 1-6, 2012, Santander, Spain. 4.Moser, S. C., Williams,J.S., and Boesch, D. F., " Wicked Challenges at Land's End: Managing Coastal Vulnerability Under Climate Change'', Annual. Review of Environmental Resources, 37:51-78, 2012.

Sedimentary dynamics and high-frequency sequence stratigraphy of the southwestern slope of Great Bahama Bank

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wunsch, Marco; Betzler, Christian; Eberli, Gregor P.; Lindhorst, Sebastian; Lüdmann, Thomas; Reijmer, John J. G.

2018-01-01

New geophysical data from the leeward slope of Great Bahama Bank show how contour currents shape the slope and induce re-sedimentation processes. Along slope segments with high current control, drift migration and current winnowing at the toe of slope form a deep moat. Here, the slope progradation is inhibited by large channel incisions and the accumulation of large mass transport complexes, triggered by current winnowing. In areas where the slope is bathed by weaker currents, the accumulation of mass transport complexes and channel incision is rather controlled by the position of the sea level. Large slope failures were triggered during the Mid-Pleistocene transition and Mid-Brunhes event, both periods characterized by changes in the cyclicity or the amplitude of sea-level fluctuations. Within the seismic stratigraphic framework of third order sequences, four sequences of higher order were identified in the succession of the upper Pleistocene. These higher order sequences also show clear differences in function of the slope exposure to contour currents. Two stochastic models emphasize the role of the contour currents and slope morphology in the facies distribution in the upper Pleistocene sequences. In areas of high current influence the interplay of erosional and depositional processes form a complex facies pattern with downslope and along strike facies alterations. In zones with lower current influence, major facies alternations occur predominately in downslope direction, and a layer-cake pattern characterizes the along strike direction. Therefore, this study highlights that contour currents are an underestimated driver for the sediment distribution and architecture of carbonate slopes.

Temporal variations of volume transport through the Taiwan Strait, as identified by three-year measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Hsien-Wen; Liu, Cho-Teng; Matsuno, Takeshi; Ichikawa, Kaoru; Fukudome, Ken-ichi; Yang, Yih; Doong, Dong-Jiing; Tsai, Wei-Ling

2016-02-01

The water characteristics of the East China Sea depend on influxes from river run-off, the Kuroshio, and the Taiwan Strait. A three-year observation using an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) operated on a ferry provides the first nearly continuous data set concerning the seasonal flow pattern and the volume transport from the Taiwan Strait to the East China Sea. The observed volume transport shows strong seasonality and linkage to the along-strait wind stress. An empirical regression formula between the volume transport and wind was derived to fill the gaps of observation so as to obtain a continuous data set. Based on this unique data set, the three-year mean of monthly volume transport is northeastward throughout the year, large (nearly 3 Sv) in summer and low (nearly zero) in winter. The China Coastal Current flows southward in winter, while the northward-flowing Taiwan Strait Current may reverse direction during severe northeasterly winds in the winter or under typhoons. The sea level difference across Taiwan Strait is closely correlated to the transport through the strait, and their relation is found seasonally nearly stable.

New evidence for "far-field" Holocene sea level oscillations and links to global climate records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonard, N. D.; Welsh, K. J.; Clark, T. R.; Feng, Y.-x.; Pandolfi, J. M.; Zhao, J.-x.

2018-04-01

Rising sea level in the coming century is of significant concern, yet predicting relative sea level change in response to eustatic sea level variability is complex. Potential analogues are provided by the recent geological past but, until recently, many sea level reconstructions have been limited to millennial scale interpretations due to age uncertainties and paucity in proxy derived records. Here we present a sea level history for the tectonically stable "far-field" Great Barrier Reef, Australia, derived from 94 high precision uranium-thorium dates of sub-fossil coral microatolls. Our results provide evidence for at least two periods of relative sea level instability during the Holocene. These sea level oscillations are broadly synchronous with Indo-Pacific negative sea surface temperature anomalies, rapid global cooling events and glacial advances. We propose that the pace and magnitude of these oscillations are suggestive of eustatic/thermosteric processes operating in conjunction with regional climatic controls.

Integrated Science Investigations of the Salton Sea, California, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnum, D.

2006-12-01

The Salton Sea is the latest waterbody to be formed by Colorado River floodwaters within the Salton Trough. Over the past 100 years, floodwaters have been replaced by agricultural drainage water and municipal discharges so that today, most of the water reaching the Salton Sea is agricultural drainwater flowing down the New, Alamo and Whitewater Rivers. An evaporation of about 6 feet per year and inputs of more than 4 million tons of salt per year have increased salinity of the waters of the Salton Sea. The current salinity level of approximately 46 parts per thousand is about 25% more saline than ocean water. Diverting water from the Imperial Valley agricultural lands to urban Southern California, and anticipated loss of inflows from Mexico and increasing water conservation activities will result in less water flowing into the Salton Sea. A Restoration Program is being conducted to evaluate the effects of diminished inflows on the Salton Sea Ecosystem and recommend alternatives to avoid or minimize those effects. The Salton Sea has become increasingly important as habitat for migratory birds because of wetland losses. California has lost approximately 91% of interior wetland acreage from pre-settlement until the mid-1980's. The Salton Sea provides critical habitat linking distant wetlands of Pacific and Central Flyways to wintering habitats in Mexico and Central and South America. More than 400 species of birds have been observed in the Salton Sea Ecosystem. Large percentages of the populations for several bird species such as the endangered Yuma Clapper Rail, the Eared Grebe, Snowy Plover and American White Pelican utilize the Salton Sea. Approximately 20 species of conservation concern utilize the Salton Sea ecosystem. Fish-eating birds such as Great Blue Herons, California Brown Pelicans, Double-crested Cormorants and several species of egrets are highly dependent upon the fishery of the Salton Sea. The Salton Sea fishery is now primarily comprised of tilapia. However, as recently as 2001 the fishery was comprised of tilapia and 3 species of salt water fish, and was described as one of the most productive fisheries in the world. The loss of the fishery has significant consequences for the fish-eating birds and a productive sport fishing industry. Arresting salinity as a means for sustaining the fishery of the Salton Sea is a major focus for the Salton Sea Restoration Project. Other issues affecting restoration include selenium, hydrogen sulfide generating sediments, air quality issues associated with the amount of the current Salton Sea that will become dry, loss of migratory bird habitat as the lake level recedes, and loss of invertebrate communities. The USGS Salton Sea Science Office is working with state, local and tribal governments, academic institutions, and other federal agencies to develop integrated plans for evaluating nutrient dynamics, contaminants for migratory birds and human health, evaluations of various restoration alternatives, avian population dynamics, air quality related studies including sediment characterization of the Salton Sea lake bed and emissions data analysis, larval fish abundance and distribution data analysis, salinity tolerance limits for fish, and wetland habitat restoration.

Machine Learning Algorithms for Automated Satellite Snow and Sea Ice Detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonev, George

The continuous mapping of snow and ice cover, particularly in the arctic and poles, are critical to understanding the earth and atmospheric science. Much of the world's sea ice and snow covers the most inhospitable places, making measurements from satellite-based remote sensors essential. Despite the wealth of data from these instruments many challenges remain. For instance, remote sensing instruments reside on-board different satellites and observe the earth at different portions of the electromagnetic spectrum with different spatial footprints. Integrating and fusing this information to make estimates of the surface is a subject of active research. In response to these challenges, this dissertation will present two algorithms that utilize methods from statistics and machine learning, with the goal of improving on the quality and accuracy of current snow and sea ice detection products. The first algorithm aims at implementing snow detection using optical/infrared instrument data. The novelty in this approach is that the classifier is trained using ground station measurements of snow depth that are collocated with the reflectance observed at the satellite. Several classification methods are compared using this training data to identify the one yielding the highest accuracy and optimal space/time complexity. The algorithm is then evaluated against the current operational NASA snow product and it is found that it produces comparable and in some cases superior accuracy results. The second algorithm presents a fully automated approach to sea ice detection that integrates data obtained from passive microwave and optical/infrared satellite instruments. For a particular region of interest the algorithm generates sea ice maps of each individual satellite overpass and then aggregates them to a daily composite level, maximizing the amount of high resolution information available. The algorithm is evaluated at both, the individual satellite overpass level, and at the daily composite level. Results show that at the single overpass level for clear-sky regions, the developed multi-sensor algorithm performs with accuracy similar to that of the optical/infrared products, with the advantage of being able to also classify partially cloud-obscured regions with the help of passive microwave data. At the daily composite level, results show that the algorithm's performance with respect to total ice extent is in line with other daily products, with the novelty of being fully automated and having higher resolution.

Forecasting the impact of storm waves and sea-level rise on Midway Atoll and Laysan Island within the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument—a comparison of passive versus dynamic inundation models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storlazzi, Curt D.; Berkowitz, Paul; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Logan, Joshua B.

2013-01-01

Two inundation events in 2011 underscored the potential for elevated water levels to damage infrastructure and affect terrestrial ecosystems on the low-lying Northwestern Hawaiian Islands in the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument. The goal of this study was to compare passive "bathtub" inundation models based on geographic information systems (GIS) to those that include dynamic water levels caused by wave-induced set-up and run-up for two end-member island morphologies: Midway, a classic atoll with islands on the shallow (2-8 m) atoll rim and a deep, central lagoon; and Laysan, which is characterized by a deep (20-30 m) atoll rim and an island at the center of the atoll. Vulnerability to elevated water levels was assessed using hindcast wind and wave data to drive coupled physics-based numerical wave, current, and water-level models for the atolls. The resulting model data were then used to compute run-up elevations using a parametric run-up equation under both present conditions and future sea-level-rise scenarios. In both geomorphologies, wave heights and wavelengths adjacent to the island shorelines increased more than three times and four times, respectively, with increasing values of sea-level rise, as more deep-water wave energy could propagate over the atoll rim and larger wind-driven waves could develop on the atoll. Although these increases in water depth resulted in decreased set-up along the islands’ shorelines, the larger wave heights and longer wavelengths due to sea-level rise increased the resulting wave-induced run-up. Run-up values were spatially heterogeneous and dependent on the direction of incident wave direction, bathymetry, and island configuration. Island inundation was modeled to increase substantially when wave-driven effects were included, suggesting that inundation and impacts to infrastructure and terrestrial habitats will occur at lower values of predicted sea-level rise, and thus sooner in the 21st century, than suggested by passive GIS-based "bathtub" inundation models. Lastly, observations and the modeling results suggest that classic atolls with islands on a shallow atoll rim are more susceptible to the combined effects of sea-level rise and wave-driven inundation than atolls characterized by a deep atoll rim.

Geoethics: IPCC disgraced by violation of observational facts and physical laws in their sea level scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mörner, Nils-Axel

2014-05-01

Sea level may rise due to glacier melting, heat expansion of the oceanic water column, and redistribution of the waster masses - all these factors can be handled as to rates and amplitudes (provided one knows what one is talking about). In key areas over the entire Indian Ocean and in many Pacific Islands there are no traces of and sea level rise over the last 40-50 years. This is also the case for test-areas like Venice and the North Sea coasts. In the Kattegatt Sea one can fix the sea level factor to a maximum rise of 1.0-0.9 mm/year over the last century. The 204 tide gauges selected by NOAA for their global sea level monitoring provide a strong and sharp maximum (of 182 sites) in the range of 0.0-2.0 mm/yr. Satellite altimetry is said to give a rise of 3.2 mm/yr; this, however, is a value achieved after a quite subjective and surely erroneous "correction". The IPCC is talking about exceptionally much higher rates, and even worse are some "boy scouts" desperate try to launce real horror ratios. Physical laws set the frames of the rate and amount of ice melting, and so do records of events in the past (i.e. the geological records). During the Last Ice Age so much ice was accumulated on land, that the sea level dropped by about 120 m. When the process was reversed and ice melted under exceptionally strong climate forcing, sea level rose at a maximum rate of about 10 mm/yr (a meter per century). This can never happen under today's climate conditions. Even with IPCC's hypothetical scenarios, the true sea rise must be far less. When people like Rahmstorf (claiming 1 m or more by 2100) and Hansen (claiming a 4 m rise from 2080 to 2100) give their values, they exceed what is possible according to physical laws and accumulated geological knowledge. The expansion of the oceanic water column may reach amounts of sea level rise in the order of a few centimetres, at the most a decimetre. Old temperature measurements may record a temperature rise over the last 50 years in the order of 0.4o C. The improved ARGO measurements starting 2004 give virtually no change, however. The physically possible amount of expansion decreases, of course, with the decreasing water columns towards the coasts, and at the coasts it is zero (±0.0 mm). The redistribution of water masses in response to the Earth's rotation, surface current beat, wind stress, air pressure, etc. is an important factor. It gives local to regional changes, cancelled out on the global scale, however. From a geoethical point of view, it is of course quite blameworthy that IPCC excels in spreading these horror scenarios of a rapid, even accelerating, sea level rise. Besides, modern understanding of the planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction shows that we are now on our way into grand solar minimum with severely colder climate - that is just the opposite to IPCC's talk about an accelerating warming. In science we should debate - but we should not dictate (as IPCC insist upon), and it is here the perspectives of geoethics comes into the picture.

Larger Pacific Climate Event Helps Current La Niña Linger

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-22

One of the strongest La Niñas in many years is slowly weakening but continues to blanket the Pacific Ocean near the equator, as shown by new sea-level height data collected by NASA U.S.-French Jason oceanographic satellite.

Observations and operational model simulations reveal the impact of Hurricane Matthew (2016) on the Gulf Stream and coastal sea level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ezer, Tal; Atkinson, Larry P.; Tuleya, Robert

2017-12-01

In October 7-9, 2016, Hurricane Matthew moved along the southeastern coast of the U.S., causing major flooding and significant damage, even to locations farther north well away from the storm's winds. Various observations, such as tide gauge data, cable measurements of the Florida Current (FC) transport, satellite altimeter data and high-frequency radar data, were analyzed to evaluate the impact of the storm. The data show a dramatic decline in the FC flow and increased coastal sea level along the U.S. coast. Weakening of the Gulf Stream (GS) downstream from the storm's area contributed to high coastal sea levels farther north. Analyses of simulations of an operational hurricane-ocean coupled model reveal the disruption that the hurricane caused to the GS flow, including a decline in transport of ∼20 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s-1). In comparison, the observed FC reached a maximum transport of ∼40 Sv before the storm on September 10 and a minimum of ∼20 Sv after the storm on October 12. The hurricane impacts both the geostrophic part of the GS and the wind-driven currents, generating inertial oscillations with velocities of up to ±1 m s-1. Analysis of the observed FC transport since 1982 indicated that the magnitude of the current weakening in October 2016 was quite rare (outside 3 standard deviations from the mean). Such a large FC weakening in the past occurred more often in October and November, but is extremely rare in June-August. Similar impacts on the FC from past tropical storms and hurricanes suggest that storms may contribute to seasonal and interannual variations in the FC. The results also demonstrated the extended range of coastal impacts that remote storms can cause through their influence on ocean currents.

A new Arctic 25-year Altimetric Sea-level Record (1992-2016) and Initial look at Arctic Sea Level Budget Closure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, O. B.; Passaro, M.; Benveniste, J.; Piccioni, G.

2016-12-01

A new initiative within the ESA Sea Level Climate Change initiative (SL-cci) framework to improve the Arctic sea level record has been initiated as a combined effort to reprocess and retrack past altimetry to create a 25-year combined sea level record for sea level research studies. One of the objectives is to retracked ERS-2 dataset for the high latitudes based on the ALES retracking algorithm through adapting the ALES retracker for retracking of specular surfaces (leads). Secondly a reprocessing using tailored editing to Arctic Conditions will be carried out also focusing on the merging of the multi-mission data. Finally an effort is to combine physical and empirical retracked sea surface height information to derive an experimental spatio-temporal enhanced sea level product for high latitude. The first results in analysing Arctic Sea level variations on annual inter-annual scales for the 1992-2015 from a preliminar version of this dataset is presented. By including the GRACE water storage estimates and NOAA halo- and thermo-steric sea level variatios since 2002 a preliminary attempt to close the Arctic Sea level budget is presented here. Closing the Arctic sea level budget is by no mean trivial as both steric data and satellite altimetry is both sparse temporally and limited geographically.

Recent evolution of 129I levels in the Nordic Seas and the North Atlantic Ocean.

PubMed

Vivo-Vilches, Carlos; López-Gutiérrez, José María; Periáñez, Raúl; Marcinko, Charlotte; Le Moigne, Frédéric; McGinnity, Paul; Peruchena, Juan Ignacio; Villa-Alfageme, María

2018-04-15

Most of the anthropogenic radionuclide 129 I released to the marine environment from the nuclear fuel reprocessing plants (NFRP) at Sellafield (England) and La Hague (France) is transported to the Arctic Ocean via the North Atlantic Current and the Norwegian Coastal Current. 129 I concentrations in seawater provides a powerful and well-established radiotracer technique to provide information about the mechanisms which govern water mass transport in the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean and is gaining importance when coupled with other tracers (e.g. CFC, 236 U). In this work, 129 I concentrations in surface and depth profiles from the Nordic Seas and the North Atlantic (NA) Ocean collected from four different cruises between 2011 and 2012 are presented. This work allowed us to i) update information on 129 I concentrations in these areas, required for the accurate use of 129 I as a tracer of water masses; and ii) investigate the formation of deep water currents in the eastern part of the Nordic Seas, by the analysis of 129 I concentrations and temperature-salinity (T-S) diagrams from locations within the Greenland Sea Gyre. In the Nordic Seas, 129 I concentrations in seawater are of the order of 10 9 at·kg -1 , one or two orders of magnitude higher than those measured at the NA Ocean, not so importantly affected by the releases from the NFRP. 129 I concentrations of the order of 10 8 atoms·kg -1 at the Ellet Line and the PAP suggest a direct contribution from the NFRP in the NA Ocean. An increase in the concentrations in the Nordic Seas between 2002 and 2012 has been detected, which agrees with the temporal evolution of the 129 I liquid discharges from the NFRPs in years prior to this. Finally, 129 I profile concentrations, 129 I inventories and T-S diagrams suggest that deep water formation occurred in the easternmost area of the Nordic Seas during 2012. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Electromagnetic backscattering from one-dimensional drifting fractal sea surface II: Electromagnetic backscattering model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Xie; William, Perrie; Shang-Zhuo, Zhao; He, Fang; Wen-Jin, Yu; Yi-Jun, He

2016-07-01

Sea surface current has a significant influence on electromagnetic (EM) backscattering signals and may constitute a dominant synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imaging mechanism. An effective EM backscattering model for a one-dimensional drifting fractal sea surface is presented in this paper. This model is used to simulate EM backscattering signals from the drifting sea surface. Numerical results show that ocean currents have a significant influence on EM backscattering signals from the sea surface. The normalized radar cross section (NRCS) discrepancies between the model for a coupled wave-current fractal sea surface and the model for an uncoupled fractal sea surface increase with the increase of incidence angle, as well as with increasing ocean currents. Ocean currents that are parallel to the direction of the wave can weaken the EM backscattering signal intensity, while the EM backscattering signal is intensified by ocean currents propagating oppositely to the wave direction. The model presented in this paper can be used to study the SAR imaging mechanism for a drifting sea surface. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41276187), the Global Change Research Program of China (Grant No. 2015CB953901), the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions, China, the Program for the Innovation Research and Entrepreneurship Team in Jiangsu Province, China, the Canadian Program on Energy Research and Development, and the Canadian World Class Tanker Safety Service Program.

The impact of sea surface currents in wave power potential modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zodiatis, George; Galanis, George; Kallos, George; Nikolaidis, Andreas; Kalogeri, Christina; Liakatas, Aristotelis; Stylianou, Stavros

2015-11-01

The impact of sea surface currents to the estimation and modeling of wave energy potential over an area of increased economic interest, the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, is investigated in this work. High-resolution atmospheric, wave, and circulation models, the latter downscaled from the regional Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) of the Copernicus marine service (former MyOcean regional MFS system), are utilized towards this goal. The modeled data are analyzed by means of a variety of statistical tools measuring the potential changes not only in the main wave characteristics, but also in the general distribution of the wave energy and the wave parameters that mainly affect it, when using sea surface currents as a forcing to the wave models. The obtained results prove that the impact of the sea surface currents is quite significant in wave energy-related modeling, as well as temporally and spatially dependent. These facts are revealing the necessity of the utilization of the sea surface currents characteristics in renewable energy studies in conjunction with their meteo-ocean forecasting counterparts.

The complex reality of sea-level rise in an atoll nation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, S. D.

2012-12-01

Sea-level rise famously poses an existential threat to island nations like Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Maldives. Yet as the global mean sea-level rises, the response of any one location at any given time will depend on the natural variability in regional sea-level and other impact of local human activities on coastal processes. As with climate warming, the state of an individual shoreline or the extent of flooding on a given day is not proof of a sea-level trend, nor is a global sea-level trend a good predictor of individual flooding or erosion events. Failure to consider the effect of natural variability and local human activity on coastal processes often leads to misattribution of flooding events and even some long-term shoreline changes to global sea level rise. Moreover, unverified attribution of individual events or changes to specific islets to sea level rise can inflame or invite scepticism of the strong scientific evidence for an accelerating increase in the global sea level due to the impacts of human activity on the climate system. This is particularly important in developing nations like Kiribati, which are depending on international financial support to adapt to rising sea levels. In this presentation, I use gauge data and examples from seven years of field work in Tarawa Atoll, the densely populated capital of Kiribati, to examine the complexity of local sea level and shoreline change in one of the world's most vulnerable countries. First, I discuss how the combination of El Nino-driven variability in sea-level and the astronomical tidal cycle leads to flooding and erosion events which can be mistaken for evidence of sea-level rise. Second, I show that human modification to shorelines has redirected sediment supply, leading, in some cases, to expansion of islets despite rising sea levels. Taken together, the analysis demonstrates the challenge of attributing particular coastal events to global mean sea-level rise and the impact on decision-making. The presentation concludes with a discussion of the implications for attribution research, discourse about sea-level rise, and adaptation planning.

Mixing in seasonally stratified shelf seas: a shifting paradigm.

PubMed

Rippeth, Tom P

2005-12-15

Although continental shelf seas make up a relatively small fraction (ca 7%) of the world ocean's surface, they are thought to contribute significantly (20-50% of the total) to the open-ocean carbon dioxide storage through processes collectively known as the shelf sea pump. The global significance of these processes is determined by the vertical mixing, which drives the net CO(2) drawdown (which can occur only in stratified water). In this paper, we focus on identifying the processes that are responsible for mixing across the thermocline in seasonally stratified shelf seas. We present evidence that shear instability and internal wave breaking are largely responsible for thermocline mixing, a clear development from the first-order paradigm for the water column structure in continental shelf seas. The levels of dissipation observed are quantitatively consistent with the observed dissipation rates of the internal tide and near-inertial oscillations. It is perhaps because these processes make such a small contribution to the total energy dissipated in shelf seas that they are not well represented in current state-of-the-art numerical models of continental shelf seas. The results thus present a clear challenge to oceanographic models.

Variability of High-Resolution Sea Surface Heights on a Broad, Shallow Continental Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crout, R. L.; Rice, A. E.

2017-12-01

Recent satellite altimeter technologies and processing methodologies are allowing investigation of the dynamics of the continental shelf as never before. The region seaward of 20 km from the coast is a region where winds, tides, currents, river discharge, and bathymetry interact. All of these are important parameters to understand when applying coastal altimetry to coastal sea level monitoring. Processing of 8 years (July 2008 to July 2016) of Jason-2 altimeter 20 Hz data from the L2 AVISO-PISTACH experimental products yields nearly 300 crossings of the broad continental shelf to the southeast of Delaware Bay from Cape May, NJ. Removal of a mean surface yields individual crossings that, plotted together, form an envelope that shows high water level variability near the coast. Water level changes near the coast begin at a hinge point that occurs approximately 50 km from shore in less than 30 meters of water. Comparison of individual Jason-2 passes with regional weather patterns, cold front passages, local winds, tides, surface currents, river discharge, and regional oceanography provides information regarding the forcing factors for these regional water levels. The water levels farther than 20 km from shore show similar patterns to the low pass filtered tide data at Cape May, NJ and respond primarily to regional forcing.

Contribution of atmospheric circulation to recent off-shore sea-level variations in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karabil, Sitar; Zorita, Eduardo; Hünicke, Birgit

2018-01-01

The main purpose of this study is to quantify the contribution of atmospheric factors to recent off-shore sea-level variability in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea on interannual timescales. For this purpose, we statistically analysed sea-level records from tide gauges and satellite altimetry and several climatic data sets covering the last century. Previous studies had concluded that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the main pattern of atmospheric variability affecting sea level in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea in wintertime. However, we identify a different atmospheric circulation pattern that is more closely connected to sea-level variability than the NAO. This circulation pattern displays a link to sea level that remains stable through the 20th century, in contrast to the much more variable link between sea level and the NAO. We denote this atmospheric variability mode as the Baltic Sea and North Sea Oscillation (BANOS) index. The sea-level pressure (SLP) BANOS pattern displays an SLP dipole with centres of action located over (5° W, 45° N) and (20° E, 70° N) and this is distinct from the standard NAO SLP pattern in wintertime. In summertime, the discrepancy between the SLP BANOS and NAO patterns becomes clearer, with centres of action of the former located over (30° E, 45° N) and (20° E, 60° N). This index has a stronger connection to off-shore sea-level variability in the study area than the NAO in wintertime for the period 1993-2013, explaining locally up to 90 % of the interannual sea-level variance in winter and up to 79 % in summer. The eastern part of the Gulf of Finland is the area where the BANOS index is most sensitive to sea level in wintertime, whereas the Gulf of Riga is the most sensitive region in summertime. In the North Sea region, the maximum sea-level sensitivity to the BANOS pattern is located in the German Bight for both winter and summer seasons. We investigated, and when possible quantified, the contribution of several physical mechanisms which may explain the link between the sea-level variability and the atmospheric pattern described by the BANOS index. These mechanisms include the inverse barometer effect (IBE), freshwater balance, net energy surface flux and wind-induced water transport. We found that the most important mechanism is the IBE in both wintertime and summertime. Assuming a complete equilibration of seasonal sea level to the SLP gradients over this region, the IBE can explain up to 88 % of the sea-level variability attributed to the BANOS index in wintertime and 34 % in summertime. The net energy flux at the surface is found to be an important factor for the variation of sea level, explaining 35 % of sea-level variance in wintertime and a very small amount in summer. The freshwater flux could only explain 27 % of the variability in summertime and a negligible part in winter. In contrast to the NAO, the direct wind forcing associated with the SLP BANOS pattern does not lead to transport of water from the North Sea into the Baltic Sea in wintertime.

Multi-linear regression of sea level in the south west Pacific as a first step towards local sea level projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Vandhna; Meyssignac, Benoit; Melet, Angélique; Ganachaud, Alexandre

2017-04-01

Rising sea levels are a critical concern in small island nations. The problem is especially serious in the western south Pacific, where the total sea level rise over the last 60 years is up to 3 times the global average. In this study, we attempt to reconstruct sea levels at selected sites in the region (Suva, Lautoka, Noumea - Fiji and New Caledonia) as a mutiple-linear regression of atmospheric and oceanic variables. We focus on interannual-to-decadal scale variability, and lower (including the global mean sea level rise) over the 1979-2014 period. Sea levels are taken from tide gauge records and the ORAS4 reanalysis dataset, and are expressed as a sum of steric and mass changes as a preliminary step. The key development in our methodology is using leading wind stress curl as a proxy for the thermosteric component. This is based on the knowledge that wind stress curl anomalies can modulate the thermocline depth and resultant sea levels via Rossby wave propagation. The analysis is primarily based on correlation between local sea level and selected predictors, the dominant one being wind stress curl. In the first step, proxy boxes for wind stress curl are determined via regions of highest correlation. The proportion of sea level explained via linear regression is then removed, leaving a residual. This residual is then correlated with other locally acting potential predictors: halosteric sea level, the zonal and meridional wind stress components, and sea surface temperature. The statistically significant predictors are used in a multi-linear regression function to simulate the observed sea level. The method is able to reproduce between 40 to 80% of the variance in observed sea level. Based on the skill of the model, it has high potential in sea level projection and downscaling studies.

A Rossby whistle: A resonant basin mode observed in the Caribbean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Chris W.; Williams, Joanne; Hibbert, Angela; Boening, Carmen; Oram, James

2016-07-01

We show that an important source of coastal sea level variability around the Caribbean Sea is a resonant basin mode. The mode consists of a baroclinic Rossby wave which propagates westward across the basin and is rapidly returned to the east along the southern boundary as coastal shelf waves. Almost two wavelengths of the Rossby wave fit across the basin, and it has a period of 120 days. The porous boundary of the Caribbean Sea results in this mode exciting a mass exchange with the wider ocean, leading to a dominant mode of bottom pressure variability which is almost uniform over the Grenada, Venezuela, and Colombia basins and has a sharp spectral peak at 120 day period. As the Rossby waves have been shown to be excited by instability of the Caribbean Current, this resonant mode is dynamically equivalent to the operation of a whistle.

The Adriatic Sea: A Long-Standing Laboratory for Sea Level Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilibić, Ivica; Šepić, Jadranka; Pasarić, Mira; Orlić, Mirko

2017-10-01

The paper provides a comprehensive review of all aspects of Adriatic Sea level research covered by the literature. It discusses changes occurring over millennial timescales and documented by a variety of natural and man-made proxies and post-glacial rebound models; mean sea level changes occurring over centennial to annual timescales and measured by modern instruments; and daily and higher-frequency changes (with periods ranging from minutes to a day) that are contributing to sea level extremes and are relevant for present-day flooding of coastal areas. Special tribute is paid to the historic sea level studies that shaped modern sea level research in the Adriatic, followed by a discussion of existing in situ and remote sensing observing systems operating in the Adriatic area, operational forecasting systems for Adriatic storm surges, as well as warning systems for tsunamis and meteotsunamis. Projections and predictions of sea level and related hazards are also included in the review. Based on this review, open issues and research gaps in the Adriatic Sea level studies are identified, as well as the additional research efforts needed to fill the gaps. The Adriatic Sea, thus, remains a laboratory for coastal sea level studies for semi-enclosed, coastal and marginal seas in the world ocean.