Using the Solar Polar Magnetic Field for Longterm Predictions of Solar Activity, Solar Cycles 21-25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pesnell, W. D.; Schatten, K. H.

2017-12-01

We briefly review the dynamo and geomagnetic precursor methods of long-term solar activity forecasting. These methods depend upon the most basic aspect of dynamo theory to predict future activity, future magnetic field arises directly from the amplification of pre-existing magnetic field. We then generalize the dynamo technique, allowing the method to be used at any phase of the solar cycle, to the Solar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) index. This index is sensitive to the magnetic flux trapped within the Sun's convection zone but insensitive to the phase of the solar cycle. Since magnetic fields inside the Sun can become buoyant, one may think of the acronym SODA as describing the amount of buoyant flux. We will show how effective the SODA Index has been in predicting Solar Cycles 23 and 24, and present a unified picture of earlier estimates of the polar magnetic configuration in Solar Cycle 21 and 22. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle's smoothed peak activity will be about 125 ± 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a sunspot number of 70 ± 25. This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. Since the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve when the upcoming solar minimum is reached.

A Two Dimensional Prediction of Solar Cycle 25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Jaramillo, A.; Martens, P. C.

2017-12-01

To this date solar cycle most cycle predictions have focused on the forecast of solar cycle amplitude and cycle bell-curve shape. However, recent intriguing observational results suggest that all solar cycles follow the same longitudinal path regardless of their amplitude, and have a very similar decay once they reach a sufficient level of maturity. Cast in the light of our current understanding, these results suggest that the toroidal fields inside the Sun are subject to a very high turbulent diffusivity (of the order of magnitude of mixing-length estimates), and their equatorward propagation is driven by a steady meridional flow. Assuming this is the case, we will revisit the relationship between the polar fields at minimum and the amplitude of the next cycle and deliver a new generation of polar-field based predictions that include the depth of the minimum, as well as the latitude and time of the first active regions of solar cycle 25.

Field aligned current study during the solar declining- extreme minimum of 23 solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nepolian, Jeni Victor; Kumar, Anil; C, Panneerselvam

Field Aligned Current (FAC) density study has been carried out during the solar declining phase from 2004 to 2006 of the 23rd solar cycle and the ambient terrestrial magnetic field of the extended minimum period of 2008 and 2009. We mainly depended on CHAMP satellite data (http://isdc.gfz-potsdam.de/) for computing the FAC density with backup of IGRF-10 model. The study indicates that, the FAC is controlled by quasi-viscous processes occurring at the flank of the earth’s magnetosphere. The dawn-dusk conventional pattern enhanced during disturbed days. The intensity of R1 current system is higher than the R2 current system. Detailed results will be discussed in the conference.

Solar Cycle 24 and the Solar Dynamo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, W. D.; Schatten, K.

2007-01-01

We will discuss the polar field precursor method for solar activity prediction, which predicts cycle 24 will be significantly lower than recent activity cycles, and some new ideas rejuvenating Babcock's shallow surface dynamo. The polar field precursor method is based on Babcock and Leighton's dynamo models wherein the polar field at solar minimum plays a major role in generating the next cycle's toroidal field and sunspots. Thus, by examining the polar fields of the Sun near solar minimum, a forecast for the next cycle's activity is obtained. With the current low value for the Sun's polar fields, this method predicts solar cycle 24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 135 plus or minus 35 (2 sigma), in the 2012-2013 timeframe (equivalent to smoothed Rz near 80 plus or minus 35 [2 sigma]). One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. We discuss unusual behavior in the Sun's polar fields that support this prediction. Normally, the solar precursor method is consistent with the geomagnetic precursor method, wherein geomagnetic variations are thought to be a good measure of the Sun's polar field strength. Because of the unusual polar field, the Earth does not appear to be currently bathed in the Sun's extended polar field (the interplanetary field), hence negating the primal cause behind the geomagnetic precursor technique. We also discuss how percolation may support Babcock's original shallow solar dynamo. In this process ephemeral regions from the solar magnetic carpet, guided by shallow surface fields, may collect to form pores and sunspots.

Hemispheric Patterns in Electric Current Helicity of Solar Magnetic Fields During Solar Cycle 24: Results from SOLIS, SDO and Hinode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusain, S.

2017-12-01

We study the hemispheric patterns in electric current helicity distribution on the Sun. Magnetic field vector in the photosphere is now routinely measured by variety of instruments. SOLIS/VSM of NSO observes full disk Stokes spectra in photospheric lines which are used to derive vector magnetograms. Hinode SP is a space based spectropolarimeter which has the same observable as SOLIS albeit with limited field-of-view (FOV) but high spatial resolution. SDO/HMI derives vector magnetograms from full disk Stokes measurements, with rather limited spectral resolution, from space in a different photospheric line. Further, these datasets now exist for several years. SOLIS/VSM from 2003, Hinode SP from 2006, and SDO HMI since 2010. Using these time series of vector magnetograms we compute the electric current density in active regions during solar cycle 24 and study the hemispheric distributions. Many studies show that the helicity parameters and proxies show a strong hemispheric bias, such that Northern hemisphere has preferentially negative and southern positive helicity, respectively. We will confirm these results for cycle 24 from three different datasets and evaluate the statistical significance of the hemispheric bias. Further, we discuss the solar cycle variation in the hemispheric helicity pattern during cycle 24 and discuss its implications in terms of solar dynamo models.

TWO NOVEL PARAMETERS TO EVALUATE THE GLOBAL COMPLEXITY OF THE SUN'S MAGNETIC FIELD AND TRACK THE SOLAR CYCLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, L.; Landi, E.; Gibson, S. E., E-mail: lzh@umich.edu

2013-08-20

Since the unusually prolonged and weak solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 (2008-2010), the sunspot number is smaller and the overall morphology of the Sun's magnetic field is more complicated (i.e., less of a dipole component and more of a tilted current sheet) compared with the same minimum and ascending phases of the previous cycle. Nearly 13 yr after the last solar maximum ({approx}2000), the monthly sunspot number is currently only at half the highest value of the past cycle's maximum, whereas the polar magnetic field of the Sun is reversing (north pole first). These circumstances make itmore » timely to consider alternatives to the sunspot number for tracking the Sun's magnetic cycle and measuring its complexity. In this study, we introduce two novel parameters, the standard deviation (SD) of the latitude of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) and the integrated slope (SL) of the HCS, to evaluate the complexity of the Sun's magnetic field and track the solar cycle. SD and SL are obtained from the magnetic synoptic maps calculated by a potential field source surface model. We find that SD and SL are sensitive to the complexity of the HCS: (1) they have low values when the HCS is flat at solar minimum, and high values when the HCS is highly tilted at solar maximum; (2) they respond to the topology of the HCS differently, as a higher SD value indicates that a larger part of the HCS extends to higher latitude, while a higher SL value implies that the HCS is wavier; (3) they are good indicators of magnetically anomalous cycles. Based on the comparison between SD and SL with the normalized sunspot number in the most recent four solar cycles, we find that in 2011 the solar magnetic field had attained a similar complexity as compared to the previous maxima. In addition, in the ascending phase of cycle 24, SD and SL in the northern hemisphere were on the average much greater than in the southern hemisphere, indicating a more tilted and wavier HCS in the north than the south, associated with the early reversal of the polar magnetic field in the north relative to the south.« less

Solar causes of strong geomagnetic disturbances during the period 1996—2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hejda, Pavel; Bochníček, Josef; Valach, Fridrich; Revallo, Miloš

2017-04-01

The purpose of this research is to assess the contribution of CMEs and CIRs to geomagnetic activity during the period 1996—2013, covering the 23rd solar cycle, the solar minimum between the 23rd and the 24th solar cycles as well as the ascending part of the current 24th solar cycle. Both CMEs and CIRs are capable of driving significant space weather effects on the Earth. Current study is not primarily aimed at construction of prediction models but can contribute to this topic by answering two principal questions: (1) what is the contribution of CME and CIR type solar events to various levels of geomagnetic disturbances and how it varies during the solar cycle (2) how does the successive emergence of CME and CIR events influence the geomagnetic response. Sometimes it can be difficult to assign the response to a particular event properly, especially in the case of several successive events. We noticed that the CIRs appeared to play important role also in years when strongly geoeffective CMEs occurred. An interesting finding, which we have revealed on this subject, concerned the year 2009; then the extremely low geomagnetic activity was probably caused by very slow solar wind from coronal holes along with the rare occurrences of CIRs.

Will Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Be Weaker than Cycle 24?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Javaraiah, J.

2017-11-01

The study of variations in solar activity is important for understanding the underlying mechanism of solar activity and for predicting the level of activity in view of the activity impact on space weather and global climate. Here we have used the amplitudes (the peak values of the 13-month smoothed international sunspot number) of Solar Cycles 1 - 24 to predict the relative amplitudes of the solar cycles during the rising phase of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle. We fitted a cosine function to the amplitudes and times of the solar cycles after subtracting a linear fit of the amplitudes. The best cosine fit shows overall properties (periods, maxima, minima, etc.) of Gleissberg cycles, but with large uncertainties. We obtain a pattern of the rising phase of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle, but there is considerable ambiguity. Using the epochs of violations of the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule (G-O rule) and the `tentative inverse G-O rule' of solar cycles during the period 1610 - 2015, and also using the epochs where the orbital angular momentum of the Sun is steeply decreased during the period 1600 - 2099, we infer that Solar Cycle 25 will be weaker than Cycle 24. Cycles 25 and 26 will have almost same strength, and their epochs are at the minimum between the current and upcoming Gleissberg cycles. In addition, Cycle 27 is expected to be stronger than Cycle 26 and weaker than Cycle 28, and Cycle 29 is expected to be stronger than both Cycles 28 and 30. The maximum of Cycle 29 is expected to represent the next Gleissberg maximum. Our analysis also suggests a much lower value (30 - 40) for the maximum amplitude of the upcoming Cycle 25.

An early solar dynamo prediction: Cycle 23 is approximately cycle 22

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth H.; Pesnell, W. Dean

1993-01-01

In this paper, we briefly review the 'dynamo' and 'geomagnetic precursor' methods of long-term solar activity forecasting. These methods depend upon the most basic aspect of dynamo theory to predict future activity, future magnetic field arises directly from the magnification of pre-existing magnetic field. We then generalize the dynamo technique, allowing the method to be used at any phase of the solar cycle, through the development of the 'Solar Dynamo Amplitude' (SODA) index. This index is sensitive to the magnetic flux trapped within the Sun's convection zone but insensitive to the phase of the solar cycle. Since magnetic fields inside the Sun can become buoyant, one may think of the acronym SODA as describing the amount of buoyant flux. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle's smoothed peak activity will be about 210 +/- 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a sunspot number of 170 +/- 25. This suggests that solar cycle #23 will be large, comparable to cycle #22. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 1999.7 +/- 1 year. Since the current approach is novel (using data prior to solar minimum), these estimates may improve when the upcoming solar minimum is reached.

Encore of the Bashful ballerina in solar cycle 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mursula, K.; Virtanen, I. I.

2009-04-01

The rotation averaged location of the heliospheric current sheet has been found to be shifted systematically southward for about three years in the late declining to minimum phase of the solar cycle. This behaviour, called by the concept of the Bashful ballerina, has earlier been shown to be valid at least during the active solar cycle of the last century since the late 1920s. Recently, Zhao et al have analysed the WSO observations and conclude that there is no southward coning in HCS or north-south difference in the heliospheric magnetic field during the late declining phase of solar cycle 23. In disagreement with these results, we find that there is a similar but smaller southward shift of the HCS and dominance of the northern field area as in all previous solar cycles. The present smaller asymmetry is in agreement with an earlier observation based on long-term geomagnetic activity that solar hemispheric asymmetry is larger during highly active solar cycles. Moreover, we connect the smallness of shift to the structure of the solar magnetic field with an exceptionally large tilt. We also discuss the cause of the differences between the two approaches reaching different conclusions.

High-performance flexible energy storage and harvesting system for wearable electronics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ostfeld, Aminy E.; Gaikwad, Abhinav M.; Khan, Yasser; Arias, Ana C.

2016-05-01

This paper reports on the design and operation of a flexible power source integrating a lithium ion battery and amorphous silicon solar module, optimized to supply power to a wearable health monitoring device. The battery consists of printed anode and cathode layers based on graphite and lithium cobalt oxide, respectively, on thin flexible current collectors. It displays energy density of 6.98 mWh/cm2 and demonstrates capacity retention of 90% at 3C discharge rate and ~99% under 100 charge/discharge cycles and 600 cycles of mechanical flexing. A solar module with appropriate voltage and dimensions is used to charge the battery under both full sun and indoor illumination conditions, and the addition of the solar module is shown to extend the battery lifetime between charging cycles while powering a load. Furthermore, we show that by selecting the appropriate load duty cycle, the average load current can be matched to the solar module current and the battery can be maintained at a constant state of charge. Finally, the battery is used to power a pulse oximeter, demonstrating its effectiveness as a power source for wearable medical devices.

High-performance flexible energy storage and harvesting system for wearable electronics.

PubMed

Ostfeld, Aminy E; Gaikwad, Abhinav M; Khan, Yasser; Arias, Ana C

2016-05-17

This paper reports on the design and operation of a flexible power source integrating a lithium ion battery and amorphous silicon solar module, optimized to supply power to a wearable health monitoring device. The battery consists of printed anode and cathode layers based on graphite and lithium cobalt oxide, respectively, on thin flexible current collectors. It displays energy density of 6.98 mWh/cm(2) and demonstrates capacity retention of 90% at 3C discharge rate and ~99% under 100 charge/discharge cycles and 600 cycles of mechanical flexing. A solar module with appropriate voltage and dimensions is used to charge the battery under both full sun and indoor illumination conditions, and the addition of the solar module is shown to extend the battery lifetime between charging cycles while powering a load. Furthermore, we show that by selecting the appropriate load duty cycle, the average load current can be matched to the solar module current and the battery can be maintained at a constant state of charge. Finally, the battery is used to power a pulse oximeter, demonstrating its effectiveness as a power source for wearable medical devices.

High-performance flexible energy storage and harvesting system for wearable electronics

PubMed Central

Ostfeld, Aminy E.; Gaikwad, Abhinav M.; Khan, Yasser; Arias, Ana C.

2016-01-01

This paper reports on the design and operation of a flexible power source integrating a lithium ion battery and amorphous silicon solar module, optimized to supply power to a wearable health monitoring device. The battery consists of printed anode and cathode layers based on graphite and lithium cobalt oxide, respectively, on thin flexible current collectors. It displays energy density of 6.98 mWh/cm2 and demonstrates capacity retention of 90% at 3C discharge rate and ~99% under 100 charge/discharge cycles and 600 cycles of mechanical flexing. A solar module with appropriate voltage and dimensions is used to charge the battery under both full sun and indoor illumination conditions, and the addition of the solar module is shown to extend the battery lifetime between charging cycles while powering a load. Furthermore, we show that by selecting the appropriate load duty cycle, the average load current can be matched to the solar module current and the battery can be maintained at a constant state of charge. Finally, the battery is used to power a pulse oximeter, demonstrating its effectiveness as a power source for wearable medical devices. PMID:27184194

Spectral solar UV irradiance data for cycle 21

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeLand, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.

2001-10-01

The Nimbus 7 Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument, which began taking data in November 1978, was the first instrument to make solar UV irradiance measurements covering both the minimum and maximum activity levels of a solar cycle. The currently archived irradiance data set was processed with an instrument characterization which fails to completely account for sensor degradation in the later part of the data record, thus limiting the accuracy of estimated long-term solar activity variations and the scientific value of the data. In this paper, we describe an improved Nimbus 7 SBUV spectral irradiance data set, which utilizes a more accurate model for instrument sensitivity and treats other time-dependent problems in the archived data. Estimated long-term irradiance changes during solar cycle 21 are 8.3(+/-2.6%) at 205 nm, and 4.9(+/-1.8)% at 240 nm. The revised Nimbus 7 SBUV irradiance data are in good agreement with predictions of solar cycle variations from the Mg II index proxy model. These solar irradiance changes are also consistent with overlapping irradiance data from the declining phase of solar cycle 21 measured by the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME). The Nimbus 7 SBUV irradiance data represent the earliest component of a 20+ year continuous record of solar spectral UV activity.

Photospheric and coronal magnetic fields in six magnetographs. I. Consistent evolution of the bashful ballerina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virtanen, Ilpo; Mursula, Kalevi

2016-06-01

Aims: We study the long-term evolution of photospheric and coronal magnetic fields and the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), especially its north-south asymmetry. Special attention is paid to the reliability of the six data sets used in this study and to the consistency of the results based on these data sets. Methods: We use synoptic maps constructed from Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO), Mount Wilson Observatory (MWO), Kitt Peak (KP), SOLIS, SOHO/MDI, and SDO/HMI measurements of the photospheric field and the potential field source surface (PFSS) model. Results: The six data sets depict a fairly similar long-term evolution of magnetic fields and the heliospheric current sheet, including polarity reversals and hemispheric asymmetry. However, there are time intervals of several years long, when first KP measurements in the 1970s and 1980s, and later WSO measurements in the 1990s and early 2000s, significantly deviate from the other simultaneous data sets, reflecting likely errors at these times. All of the six magnetographs agree on the southward shift of the heliospheric current sheet (the so-called bashful ballerina phenomenon) in the declining to minimum phase of the solar cycle during a few years of the five included cycles. We show that during solar cycles 20-22, the southward shift of the HCS is mainly due to the axial quadrupole term, reflecting the stronger magnetic field intensity at the southern pole during these times. During cycle 23 the asymmetry is less persistent and mainly due to higher harmonics than the quadrupole term. Currently, in the early declining phase of cycle 24, the HCS is also shifted southward and is mainly due to the axial quadrupole as for most earlier cycles. This further emphasizes the special character of the global solar field during cycle 23.

Influence of solar variability on the infrared radiative cooling of the thermosphere from 2002 to 2014.

PubMed

Mlynczak, Martin G; Hunt, Linda A; Mertens, Christopher J; Thomas Marshall, B; Russell, James M; Woods, Thomas; Earl Thompson, R; Gordley, Larry L

2014-04-16

Infrared radiative cooling of the thermosphere by carbon dioxide (CO 2 , 15 µm) and by nitric oxide (NO, 5.3 µm) has been observed for 12 years by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite. For the first time we present a record of the two most important thermospheric infrared cooling agents over a complete solar cycle. SABER has documented dramatic variability in the radiative cooling on time scales ranging from days to the 11 year solar cycle. Deep minima in global mean vertical profiles of radiative cooling are observed in 2008-2009. Current solar maximum conditions, evidenced in the rates of radiative cooling, are substantially weaker than prior maximum conditions in 2002-2003. The observed changes in thermospheric cooling correlate well with changes in solar ultraviolet irradiance and geomagnetic activity during the prior maximum conditions. NO and CO 2 combine to emit 7 × 10 18 more Joules annually at solar maximum than at solar minimum. First record of thermospheric IR cooling rates over a complete solar cycleIR cooling in current solar maximum conditions much weaker than prior maximumVariability in thermospheric IR cooling observed on scale of days to 11 years.

Comparison of Model and Observations of Middle Atmospheric HOx Response to Solar 27-day Cycles: Quantifying Model Uncertainties due to Photochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Li, K. F.; Shia, R. L.; Yung, Y. L.; Sander, S. P.

2016-12-01

HO2 and OH (known as odd oxygen HOx), play an important role in middle atmospheric chemistry, in particular, O3 destruction through catalytic HOx reaction cycles. Due to their photochemical production and short chemical lifetimes, HOx species response rapidly to solar UV irradiance changes during solar cycles, resulting in variability in the corresponding O3 chemistry. Observational evidences for both OH and HO2 variability due to solar cycles have been reported. However, puzzling discrepancies remain. In particular, the large discrepancy between model and observations of solar 11-year cycle signal in OH and the significantly different model results when adopting different solar spectral irradiance (SSI) [Wang et al., 2013] suggest that both uncertainties in SSI variability and uncertainties in our current understanding of HOx-O3 chemistry could contribute to the discrepancy. Since the short-term SSI variability (e.g. changes during solar 27-day cycles) has little uncertainty, investigating 27-day solar cycle signals in HOx allows us to simplify the complex problem and to focus on the uncertainties in chemistry alone. We use the Caltech-JPL photochemical model to simulate observed HOx variability during 27-day cycles. The comparison between Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations and our model results (using standard chemistry and "adjusted chemistry", respectively) will be discussed. A better understanding of uncertainties in chemistry will eventually help us separate the contribution of chemistry from contributions of SSI uncertainties to the complex discrepancy between model and observations of OH responses to solar 11-year cycles.

Analysis of Solar Spectral Irradiance Measurements from the SBUV/2-Series and the SSBUV Instruments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cebula, Richard P.; DeLand, Matthew T.; Hilsenrath, Ernest

1997-01-01

The NOAA-9 SBEV/2 instrument has made the first regular measurements ot solar UV activity over a complete solar cycle, beginning in March 1985 and continuing as of this writing. The NOAA-9 solar irradiance data set includes the minimum between Cycles 21-22 and the current minimum at the end of Cycle 22. Although overall solar activity is low during these periods, 27-day rotational modulation is frequently present. The episode of 13-day periodicity observed during September 1994 - March 1995 shows that phenomena previously associated with high levels of solar activity can occur at any point in the solar cycle. The 205 nm irradiance and Mg II index measured by NOAA-9 showed very similar behavior during the Cycle 21-22 minimum in 1985-1986, when 27-day periodicity dominated short-term solar variations, but behaved differently in 1994-1995 during the episode of 13-day periodicity. We plan further investigations into the physical causes of this result, since it affects the extent to which the Mg II index is an accurate proxy for 205 nm irradiance variations during such episodes. The NOAA-9 Mg II data are available.

CONTROLLING INFLUENCE OF MAGNETIC FIELD ON SOLAR WIND OUTFLOW: AN INVESTIGATION USING CURRENT SHEET SOURCE SURFACE MODEL

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Poduval, B., E-mail: bpoduval@spacescience.org

2016-08-10

This Letter presents the results of an investigation into the controlling influence of large-scale magnetic field of the Sun in determining the solar wind outflow using two magnetostatic coronal models: current sheet source surface (CSSS) and potential field source surface. For this, we made use of the Wang and Sheeley inverse correlation between magnetic flux expansion rate (FTE) and observed solar wind speed (SWS) at 1 au. During the period of study, extended over solar cycle 23 and beginning of solar cycle 24, we found that the coefficients of the fitted quadratic equation representing the FTE–SWS inverse relation exhibited significantmore » temporal variation, implying the changing pattern of the influence of FTE on SWS over time. A particularly noteworthy feature is an anomaly in the behavior of the fitted coefficients during the extended minimum, 2008–2010 (CRs 2073–2092), which is considered due to the particularly complex nature of the solar magnetic field during this period. However, this variation was significant only for the CSSS model, though not a systematic dependence on the phase of the solar cycle. Further, we noticed that the CSSS model demonstrated better solar wind prediction during the period of study, which we attribute to the treatment of volume and sheet currents throughout the corona and the more accurate tracing of footpoint locations resulting from the geometry of the model.« less

Improvement of solar-cycle prediction: Plateau of solar axial dipole moment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iijima, H.; Hotta, H.; Imada, S.; Kusano, K.; Shiota, D.

2017-11-01

Aims: We report the small temporal variation of the axial dipole moment near the solar minimum and its application to the solar-cycle prediction by the surface flux transport (SFT) model. Methods: We measure the axial dipole moment using the photospheric synoptic magnetogram observed by the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO), the ESA/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI), and the NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). We also use the SFT model for the interpretation and prediction of the observed axial dipole moment. Results: We find that the observed axial dipole moment becomes approximately constant during the period of several years before each cycle minimum, which we call the axial dipole moment plateau. The cross-equatorial magnetic flux transport is found to be small during the period, although a significant number of sunspots are still emerging. The results indicate that the newly emerged magnetic flux does not contribute to the build up of the axial dipole moment near the end of each cycle. This is confirmed by showing that the time variation of the observed axial dipole moment agrees well with that predicted by the SFT model without introducing new emergence of magnetic flux. These results allow us to predict the axial dipole moment at the Cycle 24/25 minimum using the SFT model without introducing new flux emergence. The predicted axial dipole moment at the Cycle 24/25 minimum is 60-80 percent of Cycle 23/24 minimum, which suggests the amplitude of Cycle 25 is even weaker than the current Cycle 24. Conclusions: The plateau of the solar axial dipole moment is an important feature for the longer-term prediction of the solar cycle based on the SFT model.

Geoeffectiveness during the early phase of Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pande, Bimal

Geoeffectiveness during the early phase of Solar Cycle 24 \\underline{} Abstract\\underline{} It is very important and interesting to understand the solar eruptions because it produces the geoeffectiveness in our Earth environment. In the rise phase of the solar cycle, geoeffective events are less frequent, thus this provide us better opportunity to study these events including the detection of their source regions. Keeping this in mind, we have analysed the data of rise phase of current solar cycle 24 ( 2009-2012). During above time period, we have selected 59 geoeffective events having Disturbance Storm Time (Dst) index < -50 nT. Based on the Dst index, we divided the events into two categories i.e. moderate (< -50 nT > -100 nT ) and intense ( <-100 nT). To locate the solar source regions of geoeffective and SEPs associated events, we have used available images, movies and Solar Geophysical data (SGD) list: for example movies from SOHO/EIT, images and movies from the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO). In this study, we will discuss and compare the different properties of associated CMEs, flares and their relation with geoeffectiveness.

Changes in photochemically significant solar UV spectral irradiance as estimated by the composite Mg II index and scale factors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deland, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.

1994-01-01

Quantitative assessment of the impact of solar ultraviolet irradiance variations on stratospheric ozone abundances currently requires the use of proxy indicators. The Mg II core-to-wing index has been developed as an indicator of solar UV activity between 175-400 nm that is independent of most instrument artifacts, and measures solar variability on both rotational and solar cycle time scales. Linear regression fits have been used to merge the individual Mg II index data sets from the Nimbus-7, NOAA-9, and NOAA-11 instruments onto a single reference scale. The change in 27-dayrunning average of the composite Mg II index from solar maximum to solar minimum is approximately 8 percent for solar cycle 21, and approximately 9 percent for solar cycle 22 through January 1992. Scaling factors based on the short-term variations in the Mg II index and solar irradiance data sets have been developed to estimate solar variability at mid-UV and near-UV wavelengths. Near 205 nm, where solar irradiance variations are important for stratospheric photo-chemistry and dynamics, the estimated change in irradiance during solar cycle 22 is approximately 10 percent using the composite Mg II index and scale factors.

Eigenanalysis and Graph Theory Combined to Determine the Seasonal and Solar-Cycle Variations of Polar Magnetic Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shore, R. M.; Freeman, M. P.; Gjerloev, J. W.

2017-12-01

We apply the meteorological analysis method of Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) to ground magnetometer measurements, and subsequently use graph theory to classify the results. The EOF method is used to characterise and separate contributions to the variability of the Earth's external magnetic field (EMF) in the northern polar region. EOFs decompose the noisy EMF data into a small number of independent spatio-temporal basis functions, which collectively describe the majority of the magnetic field variance. We use these basis functions (computed monthly) to infill where data are missing, providing a self-consistent description of the EMF at 5-minute resolution spanning 1997-2009 (solar cycle 23). The EOF basis functions are calculated independently for each of the 144 months (i.e. 1997-2009) analysed. Since (by definition) the basis vectors are ranked by their contribution to the total variance, their rank will change from month to month. We use graph theory to find clusters of quantifiably-similar spatial basis functions, and thereby track similar patterns throughout the span of 144 months. We find that the discovered clusters can be associated with well-known individual Disturbance Polar (DP)-type equivalent current systems (e.g. DP2, DP1, DPY, NBZ), or with the motion of these systems. Via this method, we thus describe the varying behaviour of these current systems over solar cycle 23. We present their seasonal and solar cycle variations and examine the response of each current system to solar wind driving.

Radiation exposure of German aircraft crews under the impact of solar cycle 23 and airline business factors.

PubMed

Frasch, Gerhard; Kammerer, Lothar; Karofsky, Ralf; Schlosser, Andrea; Stegemann, Ralf

2014-12-01

The exposure of German aircraft crews to cosmic radiation varies both with solar activity and operational factors of airline business. Data come from the German central dose registry and cover monthly exposures of up to 37,000 German aircraft crewmembers that were under official monitoring. During the years 2004 to 2009 of solar cycle 23 (i.e., in the decreasing phase of solar activity), the annual doses of German aircraft crews increased by an average of 20%. Decreasing solar activity allows more galactic radiation to reach the atmosphere, increasing high-altitude doses. The rise results mainly from the less effective protection from the solar wind but also from airline business factors. Both cockpit and cabin personnel differ in age-dependent professional and social status. This status determines substantially the annual effective dose: younger cabin personnel and the elder pilots generally receive higher annual doses than their counterparts. They also receive larger increases in their annual dose when the solar activity decreases. The doses under this combined influence of solar activity and airline business factors result in a maximum of exposure for German aircrews for this solar cycle. With the increasing solar activity of the current solar cycle 24, the doses are expected to decrease again.

Solar Effects of Low-Earth Orbit objects in ORDEM 3.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vavrin, A. B.; Anz-Meador, P.; Kelley, R. L.

2014-01-01

Variances in atmospheric density are directly related to the variances in solar flux intensity between 11- year solar cycles. The Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM 3.0) uses a solar flux table as input for calculating orbital lifetime of intact and debris objects in Low-Earth Orbit. Long term projections in solar flux activity developed by the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) extend the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Environment Center (NOAA/SEC) daily historical flux values with a 5-year projection. For purposes of programmatic scheduling, the Q2 2009 solar flux table was chosen for ORDEM 3.0. Current solar flux activity shows that the current solar cycle has entered a period of lower solar flux intensity than previously forecasted in 2009. This results in a deviation of the true orbital debris environment propagation in ORDEM 3.0. In this paper, we present updated orbital debris populations in LEO using the latest solar flux values. We discuss the effects on recent breakup events such as the FY-1C anti-satellite test and the Iridium 33 / Cosmos 2251 accidental collision. Justifications for chosen solar flux tables are discussed.

Long-Range Solar Activity Predictions: A Reprieve from Cycle #24's Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richon, K.; Schatten, K.

2003-01-01

We discuss the field of long-range solar activity predictions and provide an outlook into future solar activity. Orbital predictions for satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) depend strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in this regard, as the solar ultra-violet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiations inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Rather than concentrate on statistical, or numerical methods, we utilize a class of techniques (precursor methods) which is founded in physical theory. The geomagnetic precursor method was originally developed by the Russian geophysicist, Ohl, using geomagnetic observations to predict future solar activity. It was later extended to solar observations, and placed within the context of physical theory, namely the workings of the Sun s Babcock dynamo. We later expanded the prediction methods with a SOlar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) index. The SODA index is a measure of the buried solar magnetic flux, using toroidal and poloidal field components. It allows one to predict future solar activity during any phase of the solar cycle, whereas previously, one was restricted to making predictions only at solar minimum. We are encouraged that solar cycle #23's behavior fell closely along our predicted curve, peaking near 192, comparable to the Schatten, Myers and Sofia (1996) forecast of 182+/-30. Cycle #23 extends from 1996 through approximately 2006 or 2007, with cycle #24 starting thereafter. We discuss the current forecast of solar cycle #24, (2006-2016), with a predicted smoothed F10.7 radio flux of 142+/-28 (1-sigma errors). This, we believe, represents a reprieve, in terms of reduced fuel costs, etc., for new satellites to be launched or old satellites (requiring reboosting) which have been placed in LEO. By monitoring the Sun s most deeply rooted magnetic fields; long-range solar activity can be predicted. Although a degree of uncertainty in the long-range predictions remains, requiring future monitoring, we do not expect the next cycle's + 2-sigma value will rise significantly above solar cycle #23's activity level.

Evolution of the solar radius during the solar cycle 24 rise time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meftah, Mustapha

2015-08-01

One of the real motivations to observe the solar radius is the suspicion that it might be variable. Possible temporal variations of the solar radius are important as an indicator of internal energy storage and as a mechanism for changes in the total solar irradiance. Measurements of the solar radius are of great interest within the scope of the debate on the role of the Sun in climate change. Solar energy input dominates the surface processes (climate, ocean circulation, wind, etc.) of the Earth. Thus, it appears important to know on what time scales the solar radius and other fundamental solar parameters, like the total solar irradiance, vary in order to better understand and assess the origin and mechanisms of the terrestrial climate changes. The current solar cycle is probably going to be the weakest in 100 years, which is an unprecedented opportunity for studying the variability of the solar radius during this period. This paper presents more than four years of solar radius measurements obtained with a satellite and a ground-based observatory during the solar cycle 24 rise time. Our measurements show the benefit of simultaneous measurements obtained from ground and space observatories. Space observations are a priori most favourable, however, space entails also technical challenges, a harsh environment, and a finite mission lifetime. The evolution of the solar radius during the rising phase of the solar cycle 24 show small variations that are out of phase with solar activity.

Prediction Methods in Solar Sunspots Cycles

PubMed Central

Ng, Kim Kwee

2016-01-01

An understanding of the Ohl’s Precursor Method, which is used to predict the upcoming sunspots activity, is presented by employing a simplified movable divided-blocks diagram. Using a new approach, the total number of sunspots in a solar cycle and the maximum averaged monthly sunspots number Rz(max) are both shown to be statistically related to the geomagnetic activity index in the prior solar cycle. The correlation factors are significant and they are respectively found to be 0.91 ± 0.13 and 0.85 ± 0.17. The projected result is consistent with the current observation of solar cycle 24 which appears to have attained at least Rz(max) at 78.7 ± 11.7 in March 2014. Moreover, in a statistical study of the time-delayed solar events, the average time between the peak in the monthly geomagnetic index and the peak in the monthly sunspots numbers in the succeeding ascending phase of the sunspot activity is found to be 57.6 ± 3.1 months. The statistically determined time-delayed interval confirms earlier observational results by others that the Sun’s electromagnetic dipole is moving toward the Sun’s Equator during a solar cycle. PMID:26868269

Witnessing Solar Rejuvenation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, Susanna

2015-09-01

At the end of last year, the Suns large-scale magnetic field suddenly strengthened, reaching its highest value in over two decades. Here, Neil Sheeley and Yi-Ming Wang (both of the Naval Research Laboratory) propose an explanation for why this happened and what it predicts for the next solar cycle.Magnetic StrengtheningUntil midway through 2014, solar cycle 24 the current solar cycle was remarkably quiet. Even at its peak, it averaged only 79 sunspots per year, compared to maximums of up to 190 in recent cycles. Thus it was rather surprising when, toward the end of 2014, the Suns large-scale magnetic field underwent a sudden rejuvenation, with its mean field leaping up to its highest values since 1991 and causing unprecedentedly large numbers of coronal loops to collapse inward.Yet in spite of the increase we observed in the Suns open flux (the magnetic flux leaving the Suns atmosphere, measured from Earth), there was not a significant increase in solar activity, as indicated by sunspot number and the rate of coronal mass ejections. This means that the number of sources of magnetic flux didnt increase so Sheeley and Wang conclude that flux must instead have been emerging from those sources in a more efficient way! But how?Aligned ActivityWSO open flux and the radial component of the interplanetary magnetic field (measures of the magnetic flux leaving the Suns photosphere and heliosphere, respectively), compared to sunspot number (in units of 100 sunspots). A sudden increase in flux is visible after the peak of each of the last four sunspot cycles. Click for a larger view! [Sheeley Wang 2015]The authors show that the active regions on the solar surface in late 2014 lined up in such a way that the emerging flux was enhanced, forming a strong equatorial dipole field that accounts for the sudden rejuvenation observed.Interestingly, this rejuvenation of the Suns open flux wasnt just a one-time thing; similar bursts have occurred shortly after the peak of every sunspot cycle that we have flux measurements for. The authors find that three factors (how the active regions are distributed longitudinally, their sizes, and the contribution of the axisymmetric component of the magnetic field) determine the strength of this rejuvenation. All three of these factors happened to contribute optimally in 2014.As a final note, Sheeley and Wang suggest that the current strength of the axisymmetric component of the magnetic field can be used to provide an early indication of how active the next solar cycle might be. Using this method, they predict that solar cycle 25 will be similar to the current cycle in amplitude.CitationN. R. Sheeley Jr. and Y.-M. Wang2015 ApJ 809 113. doi:10.1088/0004-637X/809/2/113

The Interplanetary Magnetic Field Observed by Juno Enroute to Jupiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gruesbeck, Jacob R.; Gershman, Daniel J.; Espley, Jared R.; Connerney, John E. P.

2017-01-01

The Juno spacecraft was launched on 5 August 2011 and spent nearly 5 years traveling through the inner heliosphere on its way to Jupiter. The Magnetic Field Investigation was powered on shortly after launch and obtained vector measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at sample rates from 1 to 64 samples/second. The evolution of the magnetic field with radial distance from the Sun is compared to similar observations obtained by Voyager 1 and 2 and the Ulysses spacecraft, allowing a comparison of the radial evolution between prior solar cycles and the current depressed one. During the current solar cycle, the strength of the IMF has decreased throughout the inner heliosphere. A comparison of the variance of the normal component of the magnetic field shows that near Earth the variability of the IMF is similar during all three solar cycles but may be less at greater radial distances.

Solar activity simulation and forecast with a flux-transport dynamo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macario-Rojas, Alejandro; Smith, Katharine L.; Roberts, Peter C. E.

2018-06-01

We present the assessment of a diffusion-dominated mean field axisymmetric dynamo model in reproducing historical solar activity and forecast for solar cycle 25. Previous studies point to the Sun's polar magnetic field as an important proxy for solar activity prediction. Extended research using this proxy has been impeded by reduced observational data record only available from 1976. However, there is a recognised need for a solar dynamo model with ample verification over various activity scenarios to improve theoretical standards. The present study aims to explore the use of helioseismology data and reconstructed solar polar magnetic field, to foster the development of robust solar activity forecasts. The research is based on observationally inferred differential rotation morphology, as well as observed and reconstructed polar field using artificial neural network methods via the hemispheric sunspot areas record. Results show consistent reproduction of historical solar activity trends with enhanced results by introducing a precursor rise time coefficient. A weak solar cycle 25, with slow rise time and maximum activity -14.4% (±19.5%) with respect to the current cycle 24 is predicted.

The evolution of 1 AU equatorial solar wind and its association with the morphology of the heliospheric current sheet from solar cycles 23 to 24

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, L.; Landi, E.; Zurbuchen, T. H.

2014-09-20

The solar wind can be categorized into three types based on its 'freeze-in' temperature (T {sub freeze-in}) in the coronal source: low T {sub freeze-in} wind mostly from coronal holes, high T {sub freeze-in} wind mostly from regions outside of coronal holes, including streamers (helmet streamer and pseudostreamer), active regions, etc., and transient interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) usually possessing the hottest T {sub freeze-in}. The global distribution of these three types of wind has been investigated by examining the most effective T {sub freeze-in} indicator, the O{sup 7+}/O{sup 6+} ratio, as measured by the Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometermore » on board the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) during 1998-2008 by Zhao et al. In this study, we extend the previous investigation to 2011 June, covering the unusual solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 (2007-2010) and the beginning of solar cycle 24. We find that during the entire solar cycle, from the ascending phase of cycle 23 in 1998 to the ascending phase of cycle 24 in 2011, the average fractions of the low O{sup 7+}/O{sup 6+} ratio (LOR) wind, the high O{sup 7+}/O{sup 6+} ratio (HOR) wind, and ICMEs at 1 AU are 50.3%, 39.4%, and 10.3%, respectively; the contributions of the three types of wind evolve with time in very different ways. In addition, we compare the evolution of the HOR wind with two heliospheric current sheet (HCS) parameters, which indicate the latitudinal standard deviation (SD) and the slope (SL) of the HCS on the synoptic Carrington maps at 2.5 solar radii surface. We find that the fraction of HOR wind correlates with SD and SL very well (slightly better with SL than with SD), especially after 2005. This result verifies the link between the production of HOR wind and the morphology of the HCS, implying that at least one of the major sources of the HOR wind must be associated with the HCS.« less

Sunspot cycle-dependent changes in the distribution of GSE latitudinal angles of IMF observed near 1 AU

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felix Pereira, B.; Girish, T. E.

2004-05-01

The solar cycle variations in the characteristics of the GSE latitudinal angles of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field ($\\theta$GSE) observed near 1 AU have been studied for the period 1967-2000. It is observed that the statistical parameters mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis vary with sunspot cycle. The $\\theta$GSE distribution resembles the Gaussian curve during sunspot maximum and is clearly non-Gaussian during sunspot minimum. The width of the $\\theta$GSE distribution is found to increase with sunspot activity, which is likely to depend on the occurrence of solar transients. Solar cycle variations in skewness are ordered by the solar polar magnetic field changes. This can be explained in terms of the dependence of the dominant polarity of the north-south component of IMF in the GSE system near 1 AU on the IMF sector polarity and the structure of the heliospheric current sheet.

The Predictability of Advection-dominated Flux-transport Solar Dynamo Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez, Sabrina; Fournier, Alexandre; Aubert, Julien

2014-01-01

Space weather is a matter of practical importance in our modern society. Predictions of forecoming solar cycles mean amplitude and duration are currently being made based on flux-transport numerical models of the solar dynamo. Interested in the forecast horizon of such studies, we quantify the predictability window of a representative, advection-dominated, flux-transport dynamo model by investigating its sensitivity to initial conditions and control parameters through a perturbation analysis. We measure the rate associated with the exponential growth of an initial perturbation of the model trajectory, which yields a characteristic timescale known as the e-folding time τ e . The e-folding time is shown to decrease with the strength of the α-effect, and to increase with the magnitude of the imposed meridional circulation. Comparing the e-folding time with the solar cycle periodicity, we obtain an average estimate for τ e equal to 2.76 solar cycle durations. From a practical point of view, the perturbations analyzed in this work can be interpreted as uncertainties affecting either the observations or the physical model itself. After reviewing these, we discuss their implications for solar cycle prediction.

Theoretical study of the effect of ionospheric return currents on the electron temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Bowline, M. D.

1987-01-01

A time-dependent, three-dimensional model of the high-altitude ionosphere is presently used to study the effects of field-aligned ionospheric return currents on auroral electron temperatures for different seasonal and solar cycle conditions, as well as for different upper boundary heat fluxes. The average, large scale, return current densities, which are a few microamps/sq m, are too small to affect auroral electron temperatures. The thermoelectric effect exhibits a pronounced solar cycle and seasonal dependence, and its heat transport corresponds to an upward flow of electron energy which can be either a source or sink of electron energy depending on altitude and geophysical conditions.

North-South Asymmetric Solar Cycle Evolution: Signatures in the Photosphere and Consequences in the Corona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virtanen, I. I.; Mursula, K.

2014-02-01

The heliospheric current sheet is the continuum of the coronal magnetic equator that divides the heliospheric magnetic field into two sectors (polarities). Several recent studies have shown that the heliospheric current sheet is southward shifted during approximately 3 years in the solar declining phase (the so-called bashful ballerina phenomenon). In this article we study the hemispherical asymmetry in the photospheric and coronal magnetic fields using Wilcox Solar Observatory measurements of the photospheric magnetic field since 1976 as well as the potential field source surface model. Multipole analysis of the photospheric magnetic field shows that during the late declining phase of solar cycles since the 1970s, the "bashful ballerina phenomenon" is a consequence of the g^{0}_{2} quadrupole term, signed oppositely to the dipole moment. Surges of new flux transport magnetic field from low latitudes to the poles, thus leading to a systematically varying contribution to the g^{0}_{2}-term from different latitudes. In the case of a north-south asymmetric flux production, this is seen as a quadrupole contribution traveling toward higher latitudes. When the quadrupole term is largest, the main contribution comes from the polar latitudes. At least during the four recent solar cycles, the g^{0}_{2}-term arises because the magnitude of the southern polar field is larger than the magnitude found in the north in the declining phase of the cycle. In the heliosphere this hemispheric asymmetry of the coronal fields is seen as a southward shift of the heliospheric current sheet by about 2°.

Organic solar cells and physics education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Csernovszky, Zoltán; Horváth, Ákos

2018-07-01

This paper explains the operational principles of a home-made organic solar cell with the representation of an electron-cycle on an energy-level diagram. We present test data for a home-made organic solar cell which operates as a galvanic cell and current source in an electrical circuit. To determine the maximum power of the cell, the optimal current was estimated with a linear approximation. Using different light sources and dyes, the electrical properties of organic solar cells were compared. The solar cells were studied by looking at spectrophotometric data from different sensitizer dyes, generated by a do-it-yourself diffraction grating spectroscope. The sensitizer dyes of solar cells were tested by the diffraction grating spectroscope. The data were analysed on a light-intensity‑wavelength diagram to discover which photons were absorbed and to understand the colours of the fruits containing these dyes. In terms of theoretical applications, the paper underlines the analogous nature of organic solar cells, a conventional single p‑n junction solar cell and the light-dependent reactions of photosynthesis, using energy-level diagrams of electron-cycles. To conclude, a classification of photon‑electron interactions in molecular systems and crystal lattices is offered, to show the importance of organic solar cells.

Prediction of the solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays and radiation dose of aircrews up to the solar cycle 26

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyake, S.; Kataoka, R.; Sato, T.

2016-12-01

The solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), which is the variation of the terrestrial GCR flux caused by the heliospheric environmental change, is basically anti-correlated with the solar activity with so-called 11-year periodicity. In the current weak solar cycle 24, we expect that the flux of GCRs is getting higher than that in the previous solar cycles, leading to the increase in the radiation exposure in the space and atmosphere. In order to quantitatively evaluate the possible solar modulation of GCRs and resultant radiation exposure at flight altitude during the solar cycles 24, 25, and 26, we have developed the time-dependent and three-dimensional model of the solar modulation of GCRs. Our model can give the flux of GCRs anywhere in the heliosphere by assuming the variation of the solar wind velocity, the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field, and its tilt angle. We solve the curvature and gradient drift motion of GCRs in the heliospheric magnetic field, and therefore reproduce the 22-year variation of the solar modulation of GCRs. It is quantitatively confirmed that our model reproduces the energy spectra observed by BESS and PAMELA. We then calculate the variation of the GCR energy spectra during the solar cycles 24, 25, and 26, by extrapolating the solar wind parameters and tilt angle. We also calculate the neutron monitor counting rate and the radiation dose of aircrews at flight altitude, by the air-shower simulation performed by PHITS (Particle and Heavy Ion Transport code System). In this presentation, we report the quantitative forecast values of the solar modulation of GCRs, neutron monitor counting rate, and the radiation dose at flight altitude up to the cycle 26, including the discussion of the charge sign dependence on those results.

QBO of temperature in mesopause and lower thermosphere caused by solar activity variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shefov, N. N.; Semenov, A. I.

2003-04-01

On the basis of the data of the emission (hydroxyl, sodium and atomic oxygen 557.7 nm) and radiophysical (87-107 km) measurements some regularities of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the atmospheric temperature at heights of the mesopause and lower thermosphere are investigated. It is shown, that they are closely connected with quasi-biennial variations of solar activity and form within the limits of a cycle of solar activity the fading wave train of oscillations. Such behaviour of the wave train can be adequately described by the Airy function. As a result of the analysis of characteristics of QBO of solar activity during 17-23rd cycles it is shown, that to each 11-years cycle correspond its wave train of QBO. Amplitudes and periods of this wave train decrease during a cycle, i.e. it represents Not harmonious oscillation but it is a cyclic aperiodic oscillation (CAO). Therefore usual methods of Fourier analysis used earlier did not result in the same values of the period. The wave train of the current cycle begins at the end of previous and some time together with the subsequent cycle proceeds. Thus, the time sequence of activity during solar cycle represents superposition of three wave trains. Period of CAO in the beginning of a cycle has ~ 38 months and decreases to the end of a cycle up to ~ 21 months. The first wide negative minimum of Airy function describing of the wave train of CAO corresponds to solar activity minimum in the 11-year cycle. The time scale of the wave train varies from one cycle to another. Full duration of individual wave train is ~ 22 years. Owing to a mutual interference of the consecutive wave trains in the 11-year cycles the observable variations of solar activity are not identical. Structure of CAO obviously displays magnetohydrodynamic processes inside the Sun. This work was supported by the Grant No. 2274 of ISTC.

Cosmic ray modulation and radiation dose of aircrews during the solar cycle 24/25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyake, Shoko; Kataoka, Ryuho; Sato, Tatsuhiko

2017-04-01

Weak solar activity and high cosmic ray flux during the coming solar cycle are qualitatively anticipated by the recent observations that show the decline in the solar activity levels. We predict the cosmic ray modulation and resultant radiation exposure at flight altitude by using the time-dependent and three-dimensional model of the cosmic ray modulation. Our galactic cosmic ray (GCR) model is based on the variations of the solar wind speed, the strength of the heliospheric magnetic field, and the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. We reproduce the 22 year variation of the cosmic ray modulation from 1980 to 2015 taking into account the gradient-curvature drift motion of GCRs. The energy spectra of GCR protons obtained by our model show good agreement with the observations by the Balloon-borne Experiment with a Superconducting magnetic rigidity Spectrometer (BESS) and the Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) except for a discrepancy at the solar maximum. Five-year annual radiation dose around the solar minimum at the solar cycle 24/25 will be approximately 19% higher than that in the last cycle. This is caused by the charge sign dependence of the cosmic ray modulation, such as the flattop profiles in a positive polarity.

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth; Pesnell, W. Dean

2007-01-01

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun's polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock-Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130 plus or minus 30 (2 sigma), in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (approx. 7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun's open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun's cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modern observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, W. Dean; Schatten, Kenneth

2007-01-01

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun s polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock- Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130+ 30 (2 4, in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (-7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun s open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun s hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun s cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modem observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

UNUSUAL TRENDS IN SOLAR P-MODE FREQUENCIES DURING THE CURRENT EXTENDED MINIMUM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tripathy, S. C.; Jain, K.; Hill, F.

2010-03-10

We investigate the behavior of the intermediate-degree mode frequencies of the Sun during the current extended minimum phase to explore the time-varying conditions in the solar interior. Using contemporaneous helioseismic data from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) and the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI), we find that the changes in resonant mode frequencies during the activity minimum period are significantly greater than the changes in solar activity as measured by different proxies. We detect a seismic minimum in MDI p-mode frequency shifts during 2008 July-August but no such signature is seen in mean shifts computed from GONG frequencies. We alsomore » analyze the frequencies of individual oscillation modes from GONG data as a function of latitude and observe a signature of the onset of the solar cycle 24 in early 2009. Thus, the intermediate-degree modes do not confirm the onset of the cycle 24 during late 2007 as reported from the analysis of the low-degree Global Oscillations at Low Frequency frequencies. Further, both the GONG and MDI frequencies show a surprising anti-correlation between frequencies and activity proxies during the current minimum, in contrast to the behavior during the minimum between cycles 22 and 23.« less

Solar particle dose rate buildup and distribution in critical body organs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atwell, William; Weyland, Mark D.; Simonsen, Lisa C.

1993-01-01

Human body organs have varying degrees of radiosensitivity as evidenced by radioepidemiologic tables. The major critical organs for both the male and female that have been identified include the lung, thyroid, stomach, and breast (female). Using computerized anatomical models of the 50th percentile United States Air Force male and female, we present the self-shielding effects of these various body organs and how the shielding effects change as the location (dose point) in the body varies. Several major solar proton events from previous solar cycles and several events from the current 22nd solar cycle have been analyzed. The solar particle event rise time, peak intensity, and decay time vary considerably from event to event. Absorbed dose and dose equivalent rate calculations and organ risk assessment data are presented for each critical body organ. These data are compared with the current NASA astronaut dose limits as recommended by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements.

The Effect of "Rogue" Active Regions on the Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagy, Melinda; Lemerle, Alexandre; Labonville, François; Petrovay, Kristóf; Charbonneau, Paul

2017-11-01

The origin of cycle-to-cycle variations in solar activity is currently the focus of much interest. It has recently been pointed out that large individual active regions with atypical properties can have a significant impact on the long-term behavior of solar activity. We investigate this possibility in more detail using a recently developed 2×2D dynamo model of the solar magnetic cycle. We find that even a single "rogue" bipolar magnetic region (BMR) in the simulations can have a major effect on the further development of solar activity cycles, boosting or suppressing the amplitude of subsequent cycles. In extreme cases, an individual BMR can completely halt the dynamo, triggering a grand minimum. Rogue BMRs also have the potential to induce significant hemispheric asymmetries in the solar cycle. To study the effect of rogue BMRs in a more systematic manner, a series of dynamo simulations were conducted, in which a large test BMR was manually introduced in the model at various phases of cycles of different amplitudes. BMRs emerging in the rising phase of a cycle can modify the amplitude of the ongoing cycle, while BMRs emerging in later phases will only affect subsequent cycles. In this model, the strongest effect on the subsequent cycle occurs when the rogue BMR emerges around cycle maximum at low latitudes, but the BMR does not need to be strictly cross-equatorial. Active regions emerging as far as 20° from the equator can still have a significant effect. We demonstrate that the combined effect of the magnetic flux, tilt angle, and polarity separation of the BMR on the dynamo is via their contribution to the dipole moment, δ D_{BMR}. Our results indicate that prediction of the amplitude, starting epoch, and duration of a cycle requires an accurate accounting of a broad range of active regions emerging in the previous cycle.

Hubble Space Telescope solar cell module thermal cycle test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglas, Alexander; Edge, Ted; Willowby, Douglas; Gerlach, Lothar

1992-01-01

The Hubble Space Telescope (HST) solar array consists of two identical double roll-out wings designed after the Hughes flexible roll-up solar array (FRUSA) and was developed by the European Space Agency (ESA) to meet specified HST power output requirements at the end of 2 years, with a functional lifetime of 5 years. The requirement that the HST solar array remain functional both mechanically and electrically during its 5-year lifetime meant that the array must withstand 30,000 low Earth orbit (LEO) thermal cycles between approximately +100 and -100 C. In order to evaluate the ability of the array to meet this requirement, an accelerated thermal cycle test in vacuum was conducted at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), using two 128-cell solar array modules which duplicated the flight HST solar array. Several other tests were performed on the modules. The thermal cycle test was interrupted after 2,577 cycles, and a 'cold-roll' test was performed on one of the modules in order to evaluate the ability of the flight array to survive an emergency deployment during the dark (cold) portion of an orbit. A posttest static shadow test was performed on one of the modules in order to analyze temperature gradients across the module. Finally, current in-flight electrical performance data from the actual HST flight solar array will be tested.

World Encircling Tectonic Vortex Street - Geostreams Revisited: The Southern Ring Current EM Plasma-Tectonic Coupling in the Western Pacific Rim

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leybourne, Bruce; Smoot, Christian; Longhinos, Biju

2014-05-01

Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) coupling to south polar magnetic ring currents transfers induction energy to the Southern Geostream ringing Antarctica and underlying its encircling mid-ocean ridge structure. Magnetic reconnection between the southward interplanetary magnetic field and the magnetic field of the earth is the primary energy transfer mechanism between the solar wind and the magnetosphere. Induced telluric currents focused within joule spikes along Geostreams heat the southern Pacific. Alignment of the Australian Antarctic Discordance to other tectonic vortexes along the Western Pacific Rim, provide electrical connections to Earths core that modulate global telluric currents. The Banda Sea Triple Junction, a mantle vortex north of Australia, and the Lake Baikal Continental Rift vortex in the northern hemisphere modulate atmospheric Jetstream patterns gravitationally linked to internal density oscillations induced by these telluric currents. These telluric currents are driven by solar magnetic power, rotation and orbital dynamics. A solar rotation 40 day power spectrum in polarity controls north-south migration of earthquakes along the Western Pacific Rim and manifest as the Madden Julian Oscillation a well-documented climate cycle. Solar plasma turbulence cycles related to Hale flares trigger El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO's), while solar magnetic field strength frequencies dominate global warming and cooling trends indexed to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. These Pacific climate anomalies are solar-electro-tectonically modulated via coupling to tropical geostream vortex streets. Particularly the section along the Central Pacific Megatrend connecting the Banda Sea Triple Junction (up welling mantle vortex) north of Australia with the Easter Island & Juan Fernandez twin rotating micro-plates (twin down welling mantle vortexes) along the East Pacific Rise modulating ENSO. Solar eruptions also enhance the equatorial ring current located approximately at the boundary of the plasmasphere and the outer magnetosphere. Induction power of geo-magnetic storms, are linked to ring current strength, and depend on the speed of solar eruptions, along with the dynamic pressure, strength and orientation of the IMF.

Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity in the Upcoming Minimum of the Solar Activity Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krainev, M. B.; Bazilevskaya, G. A.; Kalinin, M. S.; Svirzhevskaya, A. K.; Svirzhevskii, N. S.

2018-03-01

During the prolonged and deep minimum of solar activity between cycles 23 and 24, an unusual behavior of the heliospheric characteristics and increased intensity of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) near the Earth's orbit were observed. The maximum of the current solar cycle 24 is lower than the previous one, and the decline in solar and, therefore, heliospheric activity is expected to continue in the next cycle. In these conditions, it is important for an understanding of the process of GCR modulation in the heliosphere, as well as for applied purposes (evaluation of the radiation safety of planned space flights, etc.), to estimate quantitatively the possible GCR characteristics near the Earth in the upcoming solar minimum ( 2019-2020). Our estimation is based on the prediction of the heliospheric characteristics that are important for cosmic ray modulation, as well as on numeric calculations of GCR intensity. Additionally, we consider the distribution of the intensity and other GCR characteristics in the heliosphere and discuss the intercycle variations in the GCR characteristics that are integral for the whole heliosphere (total energy, mean energy, and charge).

Scale Height variations with solar cycle in the ionosphere of Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Cano, Beatriz; Lester, Mark; Witasse, Olivier; Milan, Stephen E.; Hall, Benjamin E. S.; Cartacci, Marco; Radicella, Sandro M.; Blelly, Pierre-Louis

2015-04-01

The Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionospheric Sounding (MARSIS) on board the Mars Express spacecraft has been probing the topside of the ionosphere of Mars since June 2005, covering currently almost one solar cycle. A good knowledge of the behaviour of the ionospheric variability for a whole solar period is essential since the ionosphere is strongly dependent on solar activity. Using part of this dataset, covering the years 2005 - 2012, differences in the shape of the topside electron density profiles have been observed. These variations seem to be linked to changes in the ionospheric temperature due to the solar cycle variation. In particular, Mars' ionospheric response to the extreme solar minimum between end-2007 and end-2009 followed a similar pattern to the response observed in the Earth's ionosphere, despite the large differences related to internal origin of the magnetic field between both planets. Plasma parameters such as the scale height as a function of altitude, the main peak characteristics (altitude, density), the total electron content (TEC), the temperatures, and the ionospheric thermal pressures show variations related to the solar cycle. The main changes in the topside ionosphere are detected during the period of very low solar minimum, when ionospheric cooling occurs. The effect on the scale height is analysed in detail. In contrast, a clear increase of the scale height is observed during the high solar activity period due to enhanced ionospheric heating. The scale height variation during the solar cycle has been empirically modelled. The results have been compared with other datasets such as radio-occultation and retarding potential analyser data from old missions, especially in low solar activity periods (e.g. Mariner 4, Viking 1 and 2 landers), as well as with numerical modelling.

Automatic load sharing in inverter modules

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nagano, S.

1979-01-01

Active feedback loads transistor equally with little power loss. Circuit is suitable for balancing modular inverters in spacecraft, computer power supplies, solar-electric power generators, and electric vehicles. Current-balancing circuit senses differences between collector current for power transistor and average value of load currents for all power transistors. Principle is effective not only in fixed duty-cycle inverters but also in converters operating at variable duty cycles.

Solar-terrestrial coupling through atmospheric electricity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roble, R. G.; Hays, P. B.

1979-01-01

There are a number of measurements of electrical variations that suggest a solar-terrestrial influence on the global atmospheric electrical circuit. The measurements show variations associated with solar flares, solar magnetic sector boundary crossings, geomagnetic activity, aurorae, differences between ground current and potential gradients at high and low latitudes, and solar cycle variations. The evidence for each variation is examined. Both the experimental evidence and the calculations made with a global model of atmospheric electricity indicate that there is solar-terrestrial coupling through atmospheric electricity which operates by altering the global electric current and field distribution. A global redistribution of currents and fields can be caused by large-scale changes in electrical conductivity, by alteration of the columnar resistance between thunderstorm cloud tops and the ionosphere, or by both. If the columnar resistance is altered above thunderstorms, more current will flow in the global circuit, changing the ionospheric potential and basic circuit variables such as current density and electric fields. The observed variations of currents and fields during solar-induced disturbances are generally less than 50% of mean values near the earth's surface.

Solar Cycle Effects on Equatorial Electrojet Strength and Low Latitude Ionospheric Variability (P10)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veenadhari, B.; Alex, S.

2006-11-01

veena_iig@yahoo.co.in The most obvious indicators of the activity of a solar cycle are sunspots, flares, plages, and soon. These are intimately linked to the solar magnetic fields, heliospheric processes which exhibit complex but systematic variations. The changes in geomagnetic activity, as observed in the ground magnetic records follow systematic correspondence with the solar activity conditions. Thus the transient variations in the magnetic field get modified by differing solar conditions. Also the solar cycle influences the Earth causing changes in geomagnetic activity, the magnetosphere and the ionosphere. Daily variations in the ground magnetic field are produced by different current systems in the earth’s space environment flowing in the ionosphere and magnetosphere which has a strong dependence on latitude and longitude of the location. The north-south (Horizontal) configuration of the earth’s magnetic field over the equator is responsible for the narrow band of current system over the equatorial latitudes and is called the Equatorial electrojet (EEJ) and is a primary driver for Equatorial Ionization anomaly (EIA). Equatorial electric fields and plasma drifts play the fundamental roles on the morphology of the low latitude ionosphere and strongly vary during geomagnetically quiet and disturbed periods. Quantitative study is done to illustrate the development process of EEJ and its influence on ionospheric parameters. An attempt is also made to examine and discuss the response of the equatorial electrojet parameters to the fast varying conditions of solar wind and interplanetary parameters.

Study the gradient characteristics of the ionosphere at equatorial latitude during the latest cycle of solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen Thai, Chinh; Temitope Seun, Oluwadare; Le Thi, Nhung; Schuh, Harald

2017-04-01

The sun has its own seasons with an average duration of about 11 years. In this time, the sun enters a period of increased activity called the solar maximum and a period of decreased activity called the solar minimum. Cycles span from one minimum to the next. The current solar cycle is 24, which began on January 4, 2008 and is expected to be ended in 2019. During this period, the ionosphere changes its thickness and its characteristics as well. The change is most complicated and unpredictable at the equatorial latitudes in a band around 150 northward and 150 southward from the equator. Thailand is located in these regions is known as one of the countries most affected by the ionosphere change. Ionospheric information such as the vertical total electron content (VTEC) and scintillation indices can be extracted from the measurements of GNSS dual-frequency receivers. In this study, a Matlab tool is programmed to calculate some ionosphere parameters from the normal RINEX observation file including VTEC value, amplitude scintillation S4 index and others. The value of VTEC at one IGS station in Thailand (13.740N, 100.530E) is computed for almost one full solar cycle, that is 8 years, from 2009 to 2016. From these results, we are able to derive the rules of TEC variation over time and its dependence on solar activity in the equatorial regions. The change of VTEC is estimated in diurnal, seasonal and annual variation for the latest solar cycle. The solar cycle can be represented in several ways, in this paper we use the sunspot number and the F10.7 cm radio flux to describe the solar activity. The correlation coefficients between these solar indices and the monthly maximum of VTEC value are around 0.87, this indicates a high dependence of the ionosphere on solar activity. Besides, a scintillation map derived from GNSS data is displayed to indicate the intensity of scintillation activity.

A transient plasticity study and low cycle fatigue analysis of the Space Station Freedom photovoltaic solar array blanket

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Armand, Sasan C.; Liao, Mei-Hwa; Morris, Ronald W.

1990-01-01

The Space Station Freedom photovoltaic solar array blanket assembly is comprised of several layers of materials having dissimilar elastic, thermal, and mechanical properties. The operating temperature of the solar array, which ranges from -75 to +60 C, along with the material incompatibility of the blanket assembly components combine to cause an elastic-plastic stress in the weld points of the assembly. The weld points are secondary structures in nature, merely serving as electrical junctions for gathering the current. The thermal mechanical loading of the blanket assembly operating in low earth orbit continually changes throughout each 90 min orbit, which raises the possibility of fatigue induced failure. A series of structural analyses were performed in an attempt to predict the fatigue life of the solar cell in the Space Station Freedom photovoltaic array blanket. A nonlinear elastic-plastic MSC/NASTRAN analysis followed by a fatigue calculation indicated a fatigue life of 92,000 to 160,000 cycles for the solar cell weld tabs. Additional analyses predict a permanent buckling phenomenon in the copper interconnect after the first loading cycle. This should reduce or eliminate the pulling of the copper interconnect on the joint where it is welded to the silicon solar cell. It is concluded that the actual fatigue life of the solar array blanket assembly should be significantly higher than the calculated 92,000 cycles, and thus the program requirement of 87,500 cycles (orbits) will be met. Another important conclusion that can be drawn from the overall analysis is that, the strain results obtained from the MSC/NASTRAN nonlinear module are accurate to use for low-cycle fatigue analysis, since both thermal cycle testing of solar cells and analysis have shown higher fatigue life than the minimum program requirement of 87,500 cycles.

Solar Spectral Irradiance Changes During Cycle 24

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marchenko, Sergey; Deland, Matthew

2014-01-01

We use solar spectra obtained by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board the Aura satellite to detect and follow long-term (years) and short-term (weeks) changes in the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) in the 265-500 nm spectral range. During solar Cycle 24, in the relatively line-free regions the SSI changed by approximately 0.6% +/- 0.2% around 265 nm. These changes gradually diminish to 0.15% +/- 0.20% at 500 nm. All strong spectral lines and blends, with the notable exception of the upper Balmer lines, vary in unison with the solar "continuum." Besides the lines with strong chromospheric components, the most involved species include Fe I blends and all prominent CH, NH, and CN spectral bands. Following the general trend seen in the solar "continuum," the variability of spectral lines also decreases toward longer wavelengths. The long-term solar cycle SSI changes are closely, to within the quoted 0.1%-0.2% uncertainties, matched by the appropriately adjusted short-term SSI variations derived from the 27 day rotational modulation cycles. This further strengthens and broadens the prevailing notion about the general scalability of the UV SSI variability to the emissivity changes in the Mg II 280 nm doublet on timescales from weeks to years. We also detect subtle deviations from this general rule: the prominent spectral lines and blends at lambda approximately or greater than 350 nm show slightly more pronounced 27 day SSI changes when compared to the long-term (years) trends. We merge the solar data from Cycle 21 with the current Cycle 24 OMI and GOME-2 observations and provide normalized SSI variations for the 170-795 nm spectral region.

Long-term Trends in the Solar Wind Proton Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliott, Heather A.; McComas, David J.; DeForest, Craig E.

2016-11-01

We examine the long-term time evolution (1965-2015) of the relationships between solar wind proton temperature (T p) and speed (V p) and between the proton density (n p) and speed using OMNI solar wind observations taken near Earth. We find a long-term decrease in the proton temperature-speed (T p-V p) slope that lasted from 1972 to 2010, but has been trending upward since 2010. Since the solar wind proton density-speed (n p-V p) relationship is not linear like the T p-V p relationship, we perform power-law fits for n p-V p. The exponent (steepness in the n p-V p relationship) is correlated with the solar cycle. This exponent has a stronger correlation with current sheet tilt angle than with sunspot number because the sunspot number maxima vary considerably from cycle to cycle and the tilt angle maxima do not. To understand this finding, we examined the average n p for different speed ranges, and found that for the slow wind n p is highly correlated with the sunspot number, with a lag of approximately four years. The fast wind n p variation was less, but in phase with the cycle. This phase difference may contribute to the n p-V p exponent correlation with the solar cycle. These long-term trends are important since empirical formulas based on fits to T p and V p data are commonly used to identify interplanetary coronal mass ejections, but these formulas do not include any time dependence. Changes in the solar wind density over a solar cycle will create corresponding changes in the near-Earth space environment and the overall extent of the heliosphere.

Modulation of galactic cosmic rays in solar cycles 22-24: Analysis and physical interpretation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalinin, M. S.; Bazilevskaya, G. A.; Krainev, M. B.; Svirzhevskaya, A. K.; Svirzhevsky, N. S.; Starodubtsev, S. A.

2017-09-01

This work represents a physical interpretation of cosmic ray modulation in the 22nd-24th solar cycles, including an interpretation of an unusual behavior of their intensity in the last minimum of the solar activity (2008-2010). In terms of the Parker modulation model, which deals with regularly measured heliospheric characteristics, it is shown that the determining factor of the increased intensity of the galactic cosmic rays in the minimum of the 24th solar cycle is an anomalous reduction of the heliospheric magnetic field strength during this time interval under the additional influence of the solar wind velocity and the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. We have used in the calculations the dependence of the diffusion tensor on the rigidity in the form K ij ∝ R 2-μ with μ = 1.2 in the sector zones of the heliospheric magnetic field and with μ = 0.8 outside the sector zones, which leads to an additional amplification of the diffusion mechanism of cosmic ray modulation. The proposed approach allows us to describe quite satisfactorily the integral intensity of protons with an energy above 0.1 GeV and the energy spectra in the minima of the 22nd-24th solar cycles at the same value of the free parameter. The determining factor of the anomalously high level of the galactic cosmic ray intensity in the minimum of the 24th solar cycle is the significant reduction of the heliospheric magnetic field strength during this time interval. The forecast of the intensity level in the minimum of the 25th solar cycle is provided.

Probe of the solar magnetic field using the "cosmic-ray shadow" of the sun.

PubMed

Amenomori, M; Bi, X J; Chen, D; Chen, T L; Chen, W Y; Cui, S W; Danzengluobu; Ding, L K; Feng, C F; Feng, Zhaoyang; Feng, Z Y; Gou, Q B; Guo, Y Q; Hakamada, K; He, H H; He, Z T; Hibino, K; Hotta, N; Hu, Haibing; Hu, H B; Huang, J; Jia, H Y; Jiang, L; Kajino, F; Kasahara, K; Katayose, Y; Kato, C; Kawata, K; Labaciren; Le, G M; Li, A F; Li, H J; Li, W J; Liu, C; Liu, J S; Liu, M Y; Lu, H; Meng, X R; Mizutani, K; Munakata, K; Nanjo, H; Nishizawa, M; Ohnishi, M; Ohta, I; Onuma, H; Ozawa, S; Qian, X L; Qu, X B; Saito, T; Saito, T Y; Sakata, M; Sako, T K; Shao, J; Shibata, M; Shiomi, A; Shirai, T; Sugimoto, H; Takita, M; Tan, Y H; Tateyama, N; Torii, S; Tsuchiya, H; Udo, S; Wang, H; Wu, H R; Xue, L; Yamamoto, Y; Yang, Z; Yasue, S; Yuan, A F; Yuda, T; Zhai, L M; Zhang, H M; Zhang, J L; Zhang, X Y; Zhang, Y; Zhang, Yi; Zhang, Ying; Zhaxisangzhu; Zhou, X X

2013-07-05

We report on a clear solar-cycle variation of the Sun’s shadow in the 10 TeV cosmic-ray flux observed by the Tibet air shower array during a full solar cycle from 1996 to 2009. In order to clarify the physical implications of the observed solar cycle variation, we develop numerical simulations of the Sun’s shadow, using the potential field source surface model and the current sheet source surface (CSSS) model for the coronal magnetic field. We find that the intensity deficit in the simulated Sun’s shadow is very sensitive to the coronal magnetic field structure, and the observed variation of the Sun’s shadow is better reproduced by the CSSS model. This is the first successful attempt to evaluate the coronal magnetic field models by using the Sun’s shadow observed in the TeV cosmic-ray flux.

Anomalous and Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensities at 1 AU During the Approach to the Cycle 24/25 Solar Minimum and Throughout the Last 20 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leske, R. A.; Cummings, A. C.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Cohen, C.; Stone, E. C.; Wiedenbeck, M. E.

2017-12-01

Anomalous cosmic ray (ACR) intensities at 1 AU generally track galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensities, but with differences between solar polarity cycles: at high rigidities, GCRs reach higher peak intensities during A<0 cycles, while ACRs have been higher at A>0 solar minima. At present, during the approach to an A>0 solar minimum, ACR oxygen above 8 MeV/nucleon as measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) has already reached the peak intensities seen during the 2009 A<0 solar minimum, but is still 40% below the levels seen in 1997 during the last A>0 minimum. The GCR iron intensity at 300 MeV/nucleon, on the other hand, is presently comparable to that in 1997 but remains 10% below its record-setting 2009 value. Drift effects play an important role in the modulation of both ACRs and GCRs. Positively charged ions drift inward along the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) during A<0 cycles and their intensities are thus sensitive to the HCS tilt angle, which remained high for much of the last solar cycle. We have previously shown that both ACR and GCR intensities were significantly higher for a given HCS tilt angle during the 2000-2012 A<0 cycle than they were during the prior (1980-1990) A<0 cycle, and this trend appears to be continuing into the new A>0 cycle. But while GCR intensities in 2009 reached the highest levels recorded during the last 50 years, ACR intensities were only similar to those in the 1980s A<0 minimum. Factors such as a weaker interplanetary magnetic field, perhaps with a reduction in the ACR source strength or greater sensitivity of ACRs than GCRs to the HCS tilt angle, may account for the difference in their modulation behavior.We present 20 years of ACR and GCR intensity data acquired by ACE throughout two solar cycles, with emphasis on recent observations, and discuss possible reasons for the differences in the relative behavior of ACRs and GCRs in the different solar cycles.

Solar-induced oscillations in the stratosphere - A myth or reality?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandra, S.

1985-01-01

Chandra (1984) has provided an assessment of the solar cycle ozone relationship based on seven years of Nimbus 4 BUV (backscattered ultraviolet) data. It was found that the globally averaged ozone in the upper stratosphere, when corrected for the changes in instrument sensitivity, decreased from 1970 to 1976 by 3-4 percent. This decrease is in accordance with the current estimates of solar UV variability over a solar cycle. The present investigation has the objective to determine if measured changes in ozone and temperature in the upper stratosphere on a time scale of a solar rotation are of solar origin, i.e., directly induced by changes in solar irradiance. The conducted study is based on the first two years (1970-1972) of ozone and temperature data obtained from the Nimbus 4 BUV and the Selective Chopper Radiometer (SCR) experiments. Attention is given to the response of the stratosphere to changes in solar activity associated with the 27-day solar rotation.

Changes in the relationship NAO-Northern Hemisphere Temperature due to solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de La Torre, L.; Gimeno, L.; Añel, J. A.; Nieto, R.; Tesouro, M.; Ribera, P.; García, R.; Hernández, E.

2003-04-01

The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on wintertime Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) is investigated. To check the hypothesis that the solar cycle is modulating this relationship, the sample was divided into two groups, one included the years corresponding to the three consecutive lowest values of sunspots number for every 11-years cycle (43 years) and the other the ones corresponding to the three consecutive highest numbers (39 years) for every 11-years cycle. If the data of each year were independent, the correlation coefficients between NAO index and NHT for 43 (39) years would be 0.30 (0.32) at 95% confidence level. Correlation index corresponding to the solar minimum phases was -0.17 and to the solar maximum phases was 0.35. The second result is statistically significant and indicates that there are periods when a positive phase of the NAO is related to positive anomalies of NHT- result that supports our current idea of the influence of the NAO on temperature- but there are other periods when NAO and NHT are not correlated. So, results suggest that this relationship has different sign according to the phase of the solar cycle. For solar maximum phases NAO and NHT are positively correlated -result assumed up to the moment- but for solar minimum phases correlations are not significant or even negative. This result is in agreement with the different extension of the NAO for solar cycle phases [1] - almost hemispheric for maximum phases and confined to the eastern Atlantic for minimum phases-.

Ground Level Enhancement in the 2014 January 6 Solar Energetic Particle Event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thakur, N.; Gopalswamy, N.; Xie, H.; Makela, P.; Yashiro, S.; Akiyama, S.; Davila, J. M.

2014-01-01

We present a study of the 2014 January 6 solar energetic particle event which produced a small ground level enhancement (GLE), making it the second GLE of this unusual solar cycle 24. This event was primarily observed by the South Pole neutron monitors (increase of approximately 2.5 percent) while a few other neutron monitors recorded smaller increases. The associated coronal mass ejection (CME) originated behind the western limb and had a speed of 1960 kilometers per second. The height of the CME at the start of the associated metric type II radio burst, which indicates the formation of a strong shock, was measured to be 1.61 solar radii using a direct image from STEREO-A/EUVI. The CME height at the time of the GLE particle release (determined using the South Pole neutron monitor data) was directly measured as 2.96 solar radii based on STEREO-A/COR1 white-light observations. These CME heights are consistent with those obtained for GLE71, the only other GLE of the current cycle, as well as cycle-23 GLEs derived using back-extrapolation. GLE72 is of special interest because it is one of only two GLEs of cycle 24, one of two behind-the-limb GLEs, and one of the two smallest GLEs of cycles 23 and 24.

A New SATIRE-S Spectral Solar Irradiance Reconstruction for Solar Cycles 21-23 and Its Implications for Stratospheric Ozone*

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ball, William T.; Krivova, Natalie A.; Unruh, Yvonne C.; Haigh, Joanna D.; Solanki, Sami K.

2014-11-01

We present a revised and extended total and spectral solar irradiance (SSI) reconstruction, which includes a wavelength-dependent uncertainty estimate, spanning the last three solar cycles using the SATIRE-S model. The SSI reconstruction covers wavelengths between 115 and 160,000 nm and all dates between August 1974 and October 2009. This represents the first full-wavelength SATIRE-S reconstruction to cover the last three solar cycles without data gaps and with an uncertainty estimate. SATIRE-S is compared with the NRLSSI model and SORCE/SOLSTICE ultraviolet (UV) observations. SATIRE-S displays similar cycle behaviour to NRLSSI for wavelengths below 242 nm and almost twice the variability between 242 and 310 nm. During the decline of last solar cycle, between 2003 and 2008, SSI from SORCE/SOLSTICE version 12 and 10 typically displays more than three times the variability of SATIRE-S between 200 and 300 nm. All three datasets are used to model changes in stratospheric ozone within a 2D atmospheric model for a decline from high solar activity to solar minimum. The different flux changes result in different modelled ozone trends. Using NRLSSI leads to a decline in mesospheric ozone, while SATIRE-S and SORCE/SOLSTICE result in an increase. Recent publications have highlighted increases in mesospheric ozone when considering version 10 SORCE/SOLSTICE irradiances. The recalibrated SORCE/SOLSTICE version 12 irradiances result in a much smaller mesospheric ozone response than when using version 10 and now similar in magnitude to SATIRE-S. This shows that current knowledge of variations in spectral irradiance is not sufficient to warrant robust conclusions concerning the impact of solar variability on the atmosphere and climate.

The statistical analysis of the Geomagnetically Induced Current events occurred in Guangdong, China during the declining phase of solar cycle 23 (2003–2006)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ni, Y. Y.

2018-03-01

We study the interplanetary causes of intense geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ -100 nT) and the corresponding Geomagnetically Induced Current (GIC) events occurred in Ling’ao nuclear power station, Guangdong during the declining phase of solar cycle 23 (2003–2006). The result shows that sMC (a magnetic cloud with a shock), SH (sheath) and SH+MC (a sheath followed by a magnetic cloud) are the three most common interplanetary structures responsible for the storms which will cause GIC events in this period. As an interplanetary structure, CIR (corotating interaction regions) also plays an important role, however, the CIR-driven storms have a relatively minor effect to the GIC. Among the interplanetary parameters, the solar wind velocity and the southward component of the IMF (interplanetary magnetic field) are more important than solar wind density and the temperature to a geomagnetic storm and GIC.

Hemispheric asymmetry in coronal hole evolution: Cause of the bashful ballerina?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mursula, K.; Tlatov, A.; Virtanen, I.

2012-12-01

The magnetic hemisphere prevalent in the solar northern hemisphere has been shown to cover a larger area than in the south for about three years in the declining phase of several solar cycles. Correspondingly, the average field intensity is weaker in the northern hemisphere and the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) is shifted southward at these times. This phenomenon, now called the bashful ballerina, has been verified using several databases and methods, including the in situ observations of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) at 1 AU by the OMNI data base, at about 2 AU by the Ulysses probe, and at different radial distances by the Voyager 1 and 2 and Pioneer 10 and 11 probes. The Ulysses observations show that the mean southward shift of the HCS was about 2 degrees in the declining phase of both cycle 22 and cycle 23, although the polar strengths were very different between the two cycles. The HMF observations by the Voyager and Pioneer probes show a very consistent structure of HMF sectors and HCS location in the entire heliosphere, and even beyond the termination shock. Moreover, they suggest a systematic difference in the development of northern and southern polar coronal holes. While the northern coronal holes developed very systematically during all the four solar minima since mid-1970s, the evolution of southern coronal holes was less systematic and delayed with respect to the northern hemisphere. This delay in the evolution of southern coronal holes leads to a larger extent of northern coronal holes and a southward shift of the heliospheric current sheet (the bashful ballerina phenomenon) for a few years in the declining phase of the solar cycle. Here we study direct observations of solar coronal holes and verify this difference in the evolution of coronal holes between the two solar hemispheres, which explains the bashful ballerina phenomenon.

COMPARISON OF CORONAL EXTRAPOLATION METHODS FOR CYCLE 24 USING HMI DATA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arden, William M.; Norton, Aimee A.; Sun, Xudong

2016-05-20

Two extrapolation models of the solar coronal magnetic field are compared using magnetogram data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory /Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager instrument. The two models, a horizontal current–current sheet–source surface (HCCSSS) model and a potential field–source surface (PFSS) model, differ in their treatment of coronal currents. Each model has its own critical variable, respectively, the radius of a cusp surface and a source surface, and it is found that adjusting these heights over the period studied allows for a better fit between the models and the solar open flux at 1 au as calculated from the Interplanetary Magneticmore » Field (IMF). The HCCSSS model provides the better fit for the overall period from 2010 November to 2015 May as well as for two subsets of the period: the minimum/rising part of the solar cycle and the recently identified peak in the IMF from mid-2014 to mid-2015 just after solar maximum. It is found that an HCCSSS cusp surface height of 1.7 R {sub ⊙} provides the best fit to the IMF for the overall period, while 1.7 and 1.9 R {sub ⊙} give the best fits for the two subsets. The corresponding values for the PFSS source surface height are 2.1, 2.2, and 2.0 R {sub ⊙} respectively. This means that the HCCSSS cusp surface rises as the solar cycle progresses while the PFSS source surface falls.« less

Distinct Pattern of Solar Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays above a High Geomagnetic Cutoff Rigidity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mangeard, Pierre-Simon; Clem, John; Evenson, Paul; Pyle, Roger; Mitthumsiri, Warit; Ruffolo, David; Sáiz, Alejandro; Nutaro, Tanin

2018-05-01

Solar modulation refers to Galactic cosmic-ray variations with the ∼11 yr sunspot cycle and ∼22 yr solar magnetic cycle and is relevant to the space radiation environment and effects on Earth’s atmosphere. Its complicated dependence on solar and heliospheric conditions is only roughly understood and has been empirically modeled in terms of a single modulation parameter. Most analyses of solar modulation use neutron monitor (NM) data from locations with relatively low geomagnetic cutoff rigidity, i.e., the threshold for cosmic rays to penetrate Earth’s magnetic field. The Princess Sirindhorn Neutron Monitor at Doi Inthanon, Thailand, has the world’s highest cutoff rigidity (≈17 GV) where observations span a complete solar modulation cycle (since late 2007). The pattern of solar modulation at Doi Inthanon during 2011–2014 was qualitatively very different from that at a low geomagnetic cutoff and is not well described by the same modulation parameter. At other times, NM count rates from Doi Inthanon and McMurdo, Antarctica (cutoff ∼1 GV), were linearly correlated and confirm the observation from latitude surveys in the previous solar cycle that the slope of the correlation changes with solar magnetic polarity. Low solar magnetic tilt angles (<40° at negative polarity) were well correlated with variations at both NM stations, as predicted by drift models. At a higher tilt angle, the Doi Inthanon count rate is well correlated with the interplanetary magnetic field, which is consistent with an increase in diffusion at high rigidity short-circuiting the effects of drifts and the heliospheric current sheet.

Mars surface radiation exposure for solar maximum conditions and 1989 solar proton events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simonsen, Lisa C.; Nealy, John E.

1992-01-01

The Langley heavy-ion/nucleon transport code, HZETRN, and the high-energy nucleon transport code, BRYNTRN, are used to predict the propagation of galactic cosmic rays (GCR's) and solar flare protons through the carbon dioxide atmosphere of Mars. Particle fluences and the resulting doses are estimated on the surface of Mars for GCR's during solar maximum conditions and the Aug., Sep., and Oct. 1989 solar proton events. These results extend previously calculated surface estimates for GCR's at solar minimum conditions and the Feb. 1956, Nov. 1960, and Aug. 1972 solar proton events. Surface doses are estimated with both a low-density and a high-density carbon dioxide model of the atmosphere for altitudes of 0, 4, 8, and 12 km above the surface. A solar modulation function is incorporated to estimate the GCR dose variation between solar minimum and maximum conditions over the 11-year solar cycle. By using current Mars mission scenarios, doses to the skin, eye, and blood-forming organs are predicted for short- and long-duration stay times on the Martian surface throughout the solar cycle.

NASA's SDO Observes Largest Sunspot of the Solar Cycle

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

On Oct. 18, 2014, a sunspot rotated over the left side of the sun, and soon grew to be the largest active region seen in the current solar cycle, which began in 2008. Currently, the sunspot is almost 80,000 miles across -- ten Earth's could be laid across its diameter. Sunspots point to relatively cooler areas on the sun with intense and complex magnetic fields poking out through the sun's surface. Such areas can be the source of solar eruptions such as flares or coronal mass ejections. So far, this active region – labeled AR 12192 -- has produced several significant solar flares: an X-class flare on Oct. 19, an M-class flare on Oct. 21, and an X-class flare on Oct. 22, 2014. The largest sunspot on record occurred in 1947 and was almost three times as large as the current one. Active regions are more common at the moment as we are in what's called solar maximum, which is the peak of the sun's activity, occurring approximately every 11 years. Credit: NASA/SDO NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Variation of the Solar Microwave Spectrum in the Last Half Century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shimojo, Masumi; Saito, Masao; Iwai, Kazumasa

The total solar fluxes at 1, 2, 3.75, and 9.4 GHz were observed continuously from 1957 to 1994 at Toyokawa, Japan, and from 1994 until now at Nobeyama, Japan, with the current Nobeyama Radio Polarimeters. We examined the multi-frequency and long-term data sets, and found that not only the microwave solar flux but also its monthly standard deviation indicate the long-term variation of solar activity. Furthermore, we found that the microwave spectra at the solar minima of Cycles 20–24 agree with each other. These results show that the average atmospheric structure above the upper chromosphere in the quiet-Sun has notmore » varied for half a century, and suggest that the energy input for atmospheric heating from the sub-photosphere to the corona have not changed in the quiet-Sun despite significantly differing strengths of magnetic activity in the last five solar cycles.« less

Flow downstream of the heliospheric terminal shock: Magnetic field line topology and solar cycle imprint

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nerney, Steven; Suess, S. T.; Schmahl, E. J.

1995-01-01

The topology of the magnetic field in the heliosheath is illustrated using plots of the field lines. It is shown that the Archimedean spiral inside the terminal shock is rotated back in the heliosheath into nested spirals that are advected in the direction of the interstellar wind. The 22-year solar magnetic cycle is imprinted onto these field lines in the form of unipolar magnetic envelopes surrounded by volumes of strongly mixed polarity. Each envelope is defined by the changing tilt of the heliospheric current sheet, which is in turn defined by the boundary of unipolar high-latitude regions on the Sun that shrink to the pole at solar maximum and expand to the equator at solar minimum. The detailed shape of the envelopes is regulated by the solar wind velocity structure in the heliosheath.

Controllable Growth of Ga Film Electrodeposited from Aqueous Solution and Cu(In,Ga)Se2 Solar Cells.

PubMed

Bi, Jinlian; Ao, Jianping; Gao, Qing; Zhang, Zhaojing; Sun, Guozhong; He, Qing; Zhou, Zhiqiang; Sun, Yun; Zhang, Yi

2017-06-07

Electrodepositon of Ga film is very challenging due to the high standard reduction potential (-0.53 V vs SHE for Ga 3+ ). In this study, Ga film with compact structure was successfully deposited on the Mo/Cu/In substrate by the pulse current electrodeposition (PCE) method using GaCl 3 aqueous solution. A high deposition rate of Ga 3+ and H + can be achieved by applying a large overpotential induced by high pulse current. In the meanwhile, the concentration polarization induced by cation depletion can be minimized by changing the pulse frequency and duty cycle. Uniform and smooth Ga film was fabricated at high deposition rate with pulse current density 125 mA/cm 2 , pulse frequency 5 Hz, and duty cycle 0.25. Ga film was then selenized together with electrodeposited Cu and In films to make a CIGSe absorber film for solar cells. The solar cell based on the Ga film presents conversion efficiency of 11.04%, fill factor of 63.40%, and V oc of 505 mV, which is much better than those based on the inhomogeneous and rough Ga film prepared by the DCE method, indicating the pulse current electrodeposition process is promising for the fabrication of CIGSe solar cell.

UV solar irradiance in observations and the NRLSSI and SATIRE-S models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeo, K. L.; Ball, W. T.; Krivova, N. A.; Solanki, S. K.; Unruh, Y. C.; Morrill, J.

2015-08-01

Total solar irradiance and UV spectral solar irradiance has been monitored since 1978 through a succession of space missions. This is accompanied by the development of models aimed at replicating solar irradiance by relating the variability to solar magnetic activity. The Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance (NRLSSI) and Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction for the Satellite era (SATIRE-S) models provide the most comprehensive reconstructions of total and spectral solar irradiance over the period of satellite observation currently available. There is persistent controversy between the various measurements and models in terms of the wavelength dependence of the variation over the solar cycle, with repercussions on our understanding of the influence of UV solar irradiance variability on the stratosphere. We review the measurement and modeling of UV solar irradiance variability over the period of satellite observation. The SATIRE-S reconstruction is consistent with spectral solar irradiance observations where they are reliable. It is also supported by an independent, empirical reconstruction of UV spectral solar irradiance based on Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite/Solar Ultraviolet Spectral Irradiance Monitor measurements from an earlier study. The weaker solar cycle variability produced by NRLSSI between 300 and 400 nm is not evident in any available record. We show that although the method employed to construct NRLSSI is principally sound, reconstructed solar cycle variability is detrimentally affected by the uncertainty in the SSI observations it draws upon in the derivation. Based on our findings, we recommend, when choosing between the two models, the use of SATIRE-S for climate studies.

Investigation of reliability attributes and accelerated stress factors on terrestrial solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prince, J. L.; Lathrop, J. W.

1979-01-01

The results of accelerated stress testing of four different types of silicon terrestrial solar cells are discussed. The accelerated stress tests used included bias-temperature tests, bias-temperature-humidity tests, thermal cycle and thermal shock tests, and power cycle tests. Characterization of the cells was performed before stress testing and at periodic down-times, using electrical measurement, visual inspection, and metal adherence pull tests. Electrical parameters measured included short-circuit current, open circuit voltage, and output power, voltage, and current at the maximum power point. Incorporated in the report are the distributions of the prestress electrical data for all cell types. Data were also obtained on cell series and shunt resistance.

SOLAR CYCLE 25: ANOTHER MODERATE CYCLE?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cameron, R. H.; Schüssler, M.; Jiang, J., E-mail: cameron@mps.mpg.de

2016-06-01

Surface flux transport simulations for the descending phase of Cycle 24 using random sources (emerging bipolar magnetic regions) with empirically determined scatter of their properties provide a prediction of the axial dipole moment during the upcoming activity minimum together with a realistic uncertainty range. The expectation value for the dipole moment around 2020 (2.5 ± 1.1 G) is comparable to that observed at the end of Cycle 23 (about 2 G). The empirical correlation between the dipole moment during solar minimum and the strength of the subsequent cycle thus suggests that Cycle 25 will be of moderate amplitude, not muchmore » higher than that of the current cycle. However, the intrinsic uncertainty of such predictions resulting from the random scatter of the source properties is considerable and fundamentally limits the reliability with which such predictions can be made before activity minimum is reached.« less

Model Estimated GCR Particle Flux Variation - Assessment with CRIS Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saganti, Premkumar

We present model calculated particle flux as a function of time during the current solar cycle along with the comparisons from the ACE/CRIS data and the Mars/MARIE data. In our model calculations we make use of the NASA's HZETRN (High Z and Energy Transport) code along with the nuclear fragmentation cross sections that are described by the quantum multiple scattering (QMSFRG) model. The time dependant variation of the GCR environment is derived making use of the solar modulation potential, phi. For the past ten years, Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) has been in orbit at the Sun- Earth libration point (L1). Data from the Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer (CRIS) instrument onboard the ACE spacecraft has been available from 1997 through the present time. Our model calculated particle flux showed high degree of correlation during the earlier phase of the current solar cycle (2003) in the lower Z region within 15

The solar cycle; Proceedings of the National Solar Observatory/Sacramento Peak 12th Summer Workshop, Sunspot, NM, Oct. 15-18, 1991

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harvey, Karen L. (Editor)

1992-01-01

Attention is given to a flux-transport model, the effect of fractal distribution on the evolution of solar surface magnetic fields, active nests on the sun, magnetic flux transport in solar active regions, recent advances in stellar cycle research, magnetic intermittency on the sun, a search for existence of large-scale motions on the sun, and new solar cycle data from the NASA/NSO spectromagnetograph. Attention is also given to the solar cycle variation of coronal temperature during cycle 22, the distribution of the north-south asymmetry for the various activity cycles, solar luminosity variation, a two-parameter model of total solar irradiance variation over the solar cycle, the origin of the solar cycle, nonlinear feedbacks in the solar dynamo, and long-term dynamics of the solar cycle.

A general method to analyze the thermal performance of multi-cavity concentrating solar power receivers

DOE PAGES

Fleming, Austin; Folsom, Charles; Ban, Heng; ...

2015-11-13

Concentrating solar power (CSP) with thermal energy storage has potential to provide grid-scale, on-demand, dispatachable renewable energy. As higher solar receiver output temperatures are necessary for higher thermal cycle efficiency, current CSP research is focused on high outlet temperature and high efficiency receivers. Here, the objective of this study is to provide a simplified model to analyze the thermal efficiency of multi-cavity concentrating solar power receivers.

Solar High Temperature Water-Splitting Cycle with Quantum Boost

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taylor, Robin; Davenport, Roger; Talbot, Jan

A sulfur family chemical cycle having ammonia as the working fluid and reagent was developed as a cost-effective and efficient hydrogen production technology based on a solar thermochemical water-splitting cycle. The sulfur ammonia (SA) cycle is a renewable and sustainable process that is unique in that it is an all-fluid cycle (i.e., with no solids handling). It uses a moderate temperature solar plant with the solar receiver operating at 800°C. All electricity needed is generated internally from recovered heat. The plant would operate continuously with low cost storage and it is a good potential solar thermochemical hydrogen production cycle formore » reaching the DOE cost goals. Two approaches were considered for the hydrogen production step of the SA cycle: (1) photocatalytic, and (2) electrolytic oxidation of ammonium sulfite to ammonium sulfate in aqueous solutions. Also, two sub-cycles were evaluated for the oxygen evolution side of the SA cycle: (1) zinc sulfate/zinc oxide, and (2) potassium sulfate/potassium pyrosulfate. The laboratory testing and optimization of all the process steps for each version of the SA cycle were proven in the laboratory or have been fully demonstrated by others, but further optimization is still possible and needed. The solar configuration evolved to a 50 MW(thermal) central receiver system with a North heliostat field, a cavity receiver, and NaCl molten salt storage to allow continuous operation. The H2A economic model was used to optimize and trade-off SA cycle configurations. Parametric studies of chemical plant performance have indicated process efficiencies of ~20%. Although the current process efficiency is technically acceptable, an increased efficiency is needed if the DOE cost targets are to be reached. There are two interrelated areas in which there is the potential for significant efficiency improvements: electrolysis cell voltage and excessive water vaporization. Methods to significantly reduce water evaporation are proposed for future activities. Electrolysis membranes that permit higher temperatures and lower voltages are attainable. The oxygen half cycle will need further development and improvement.« less

Analysis of space environment damage to solar cell assemblies from LDEF experiment A0171-GSFC test plate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, David C.; Rose, M. Frank

1994-01-01

The results of the postflight analysis of the solar cell assemblies from the LDEF (Long Duration Exposure facility) experiment A0171 is provided in this NASA sponsored research project. The following data on this research are provided as follows: (1) solar cell description, including, substrate composition and thickness, crystal orientation, anti-reflective coating composition and thickness; (2) preflight characteristics of the solar cell assemblies with respect to current and voltage; and (3) post-flight characteristics of the solar cell assemblies with respect to voltage and current. These solar cell assemblies are part of the Goddard Space Flight Center test plate which was designed to test the space environment effects (radiation, atomic oxygen, thermal cycling, meteoroid and debris) on conductively coated solar cell coversheets, various electrical bond materials, solar cell performance, and other material properties where feasible.

Daytime Solar Heating of Photovoltaic Arrays in Low Density Plasmas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Galofaro, J.; Vayner, B.; Ferguson, D.

2003-01-01

The purpose of the current work is to determine the out-gassing rate of H2O molecules for a solar array placed under daytime solar heating (full sunlight) conditions typically encountered in a Low Earth Orbital (LEO) environment. Arc rates are established for individual arrays held at 14 C and are used as a baseline for future comparisons. Radiated thermal solar flux incident to the array is simulated by mounting a stainless steel panel equipped with resistive heating elements several centimeters behind the array. A thermal plot of the heater plate temperature and the array temperature as a function of heating time is then obtained. A mass spectrometer is used to record the levels of partial pressure of water vapor in the test chamber after each of the 5 heating/cooling cycles. Each of the heating cycles was set to time duration of 40 minutes to simulate the daytime solar heat flux to the array over a single orbit. Finally the array is cooled back to ambient temperature after 5 complete cycles and the arc rates of the solar arrays is retested. A comparison of the various data is presented with rather some unexpected results.

CHARACTERISTICS OF SOLAR MERIDIONAL FLOWS DURING SOLAR CYCLE 23

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Basu, Sarbani; Antia, H. M., E-mail: sarbani.basu@yale.ed, E-mail: antia@tifr.res.i

2010-07-01

We have analyzed available full-disk data from the Michelson Doppler Imager on board SOHO using the 'ring diagram' technique to determine the behavior of solar meridional flows over solar cycle 23 in the outer 2% of the solar radius. We find that the dominant component of meridional flows during solar maximum was much lower than that during the minima at the beginning of cycles 23 and 24. There were differences in the flow velocities even between the two minima. The meridional flows show a migrating pattern with higher-velocity flows migrating toward the equator as activity increases. Additionally, we find thatmore » the migrating pattern of the meridional flow matches those of sunspot butterfly diagram and the zonal flows in the shallow layers. A high-latitude band in meridional flow appears around 2004, well before the current activity minimum. A Legendre polynomial decomposition of the meridional flows shows that the latitudinal pattern of the flow was also different during the maximum as compared to that during the two minima. The different components of the flow have different time dependences, and the dependence is different at different depths.« less

Radiation belt electron dynamics at low L (<4): Van Allen Probes era versus previous two solar cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Baker, D. N.; Zhao, H.; Zhang, K.; Jaynes, A. N.; Schiller, Q.; Kanekal, S. G.; Blake, J. B.; Temerin, M.

2017-05-01

Long-term (>2 solar cycles) measurements reveal that MeV electron fluxes, solar wind speed, and geomagnetic activity have been extremely low during this current solar cycle, including years before and during the Van Allen Probes era. This study examines solar wind speed, the geomagnetic storm index (Dst), >2 MeV electrons at geostationary orbit, and 2 MeV electrons across various L shells measured by Solar Anomalous Magnetospheric Particle Explorer in low Earth orbit (LEO) and by the Van Allen Probes/Relativistic Electron and Proton Telescope (REPT) in a geotransfer-like orbit; the latter measurements are normalized to LEO based on comparison with Colorado Student Space Weather Experiment/Relativistic Electron and Proton Telescope integrated little experiment (REPTile) measurements in LEO. The average ratio of REPTile/REPT varies in a systematic manner with L, 16% at L = 2.7, decreasing with L and reaching 0.7% at L = 4.7, and increasing again with L though with greater uncertainty. We show that there have been no 2 MeV electron enhancements inside L 2.6 since 2006, prior to which numerous penetrations of 2 MeV electrons into L < 2.5 were measured during periods of stronger solar wind conditions (in terms of high-speed solar wind, magnitude of interplanetary magnetic field, B, and a sustained southward Bz) and thus stronger geomagnetic activity. We conclude that results from the Van Allen Probes, which have been providing the finest measurements but in operation during a quiet solar activity period, may not be representative of radiation belt dynamics, particularly for the inner edge of the outer belt, during other solar cycle phases.

Detection of large scale geomagnetic pulsations by MAGDAS-egypt stations during the solar minimum of the solar cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fathy, Ibrahim

2016-07-01

This paper presents a statistical study of different types of large-scale geomagnetic pulsation (Pc3, Pc4, Pc5 and Pi2) detected simultaneously by two MAGDAS stations located at Fayum (Geo. Coordinates 29.18 N and 30.50 E) and Aswan (Geo. Coordinates 23.59 N and 32.51 E) in Egypt. The second order butter-worth band-pass filter has been used to filter and analyze the horizontal H-component of the geomagnetic field in one-second data. The data was collected during the solar minimum of the current solar cycle 24. We list the most energetic pulsations detected by the two stations instantaneously, in addition; the average amplitude of the pulsation signals was calculated.

Variations in Solar Parameters and Cosmic Rays with Solar Magnetic Polarity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oh, S.; Yi, Y., E-mail: suyeonoh@jnu.ac.kr

The sunspot number varies with the 11-year Schwabe cycle, and the solar magnetic polarity reverses every 11 years approximately at the solar maximum. Because of polarity reversal, the difference between odd and even solar cycles is seen in solar activity. In this study, we create the mean solar cycle expressed by phase using the monthly sunspot number for all solar cycles 1–23. We also generate the mean solar cycle for sunspot area, solar radio flux, and cosmic ray flux within the allowance of observational range. The mean solar cycle has one large peak at solar maximum for odd solar cyclesmore » and two small peaks for most even solar cycles. The odd and even solar cycles have the statistical difference in value and shape at a confidence level of at least 98%. For solar cycles 19–23, the second peak in the even solar cycle is larger than the first peak. This result is consistent with the frequent solar events during the declining phase after the solar maximum. The difference between odd and even solar cycles can be explained by a combined model of polarity reversal and solar rotation. In the positive/negative polarity, the polar magnetic field introduces angular momentum in the same/opposite direction as/to the solar rotation. Thus the addition/subtraction of angular momentum can increase/decrease the motion of plasma to support the formation of sunspots. Since the polarity reverses at the solar maximum, the opposite phenomenon occurs in the declining phase.« less

Ionospheric winter anomaly and annual anomaly observed from Formosat-3/COSMIC Radio Occultation observations during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sai Gowtam, V.; Tulasi Ram, S.

2017-10-01

Ionospheric winter and annual anomalies have been investigated during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24 using high-resolution global 3D - data of the FORMOSAT - 3/COSMIC (Formosa satellite - 3/Constellation Observing System for Meterology, Ionosphere and Climate) radio occultation observations. Our detailed analysis shows that the occurrence of winter anomaly at low-latitudes is confined only to the early morning to afternoon hours, whereas, the winter anomaly at mid-latitudes is almost absent at all local times during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24. Further, in the topside ionosphere (altitudes of 400 km and above), the winter anomaly is completely absent at all local times. In contrast, the ionospheric annual anomaly is consistently observed at all local times and altitudes during this ascending phase of solar cycle 24. The annual anomaly exhibits strong enhancements over southern EIA crest latitudes during day time and around Weddle Sea Anomaly (WSA) region during night times. The global mean annual asymmetry index is also computed to understand the altitudinal variation. The global mean AI maximizes around 300-500 km altitudes during the low solar active periods (2008-10), whereas it extends up to 600 km during moderate to high (2011) solar activity period. These findings from our study provide new insights to the current understanding of the annual anomaly.

Rebirth of the Bashful ballerina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mursula, Kalevi; Virtanen, Ilpo

2016-04-01

Heliospheric current sheet (HCS) is the continuation of the coronal magnetic equator into space, dividing the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) into two sectors. Because of its wavy structure, the HCS is also called the ballerina skirt. Several recent studies have proven that the HCS is southward shifted during about three years in the solar declining to minimum phase. This persistent phenomenon, now called the Bashful ballerina, has been seen in geomagnetic indices since 1930s, OMNI data since 1960s, WSO data since mid-1970s and in Ulysses probe measurements during the fast latitude scans in 1994-1995 and 2007. Here we study the long-term evolution of photospheric and coronal magnetic fields and the heliospheric current sheet since 1975 using synoptic maps from six observatories (WSO, MWO, Kitt Peak, SOLIS, SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI). All data sets depict a fairly similar long-term evolution of magnetic fields and the heliospheric current sheet, and agree on the southward shift of the heliospheric current sheet during all the five included cycles. We show that during solar cycles 20 -- 22, the southward shift of the HCS is due to the axial quadrupole term, reflecting the stronger magnetic field intensity at the southern pole during these times. During cycle 23 the asymmetry is less persistent and due to higher harmonics than the quadrupole term. Currently, in the early declining phase of cycle 24, the HCS is also shifted southward and is, again, due to the axial quadrupole, repeating the pattern of most previous cycles.

Bashful ballerina: Multi-instrument verification and recent behaviour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mursula, Kalevi; Virtanen, Ilpo

2016-07-01

Heliospheric current sheet (HCS) is the continuation of the coronal magnetic equator into space, dividing the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) into two sectors. Because of its wavy structure, the HCS is also called the ballerina skirt. Several recent studies have proven that the HCS is southward shifted during about three years in the solar declining to minimum phase. This persistent phenomenon, now called the Bashful ballerina, has been seen in geomagnetic indices since 1930s, OMNI data since 1960s, WSO data since mid-1970s and in Ulysses probe measurements during the fast latitude scans in 1994-1995 and 2007. Here we study the long-term evolution of photospheric and coronal magnetic fields and the heliospheric current sheet since 1975 using synoptic maps from six observatories (WSO, MWO, Kitt Peak, SOLIS, SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI). All data sets depict a fairly similar long-term evolution of magnetic fields and the heliospheric current sheet, and agree on the southward shift of the heliospheric current sheet during all the five included cycles. We show that during solar cycles 20 -- 22, the southward shift of the HCS is due to the axial quadrupole term, reflecting the stronger magnetic field intensity at the southern pole during these times. During cycle 23 the asymmetry is less persistent and due to higher harmonics than the quadrupole term. Currently, in the early declining phase of cycle 24, the HCS is also shifted southward and is, again, due to the axial quadrupole, repeating the pattern of most previous cycles.

Solar Rotational Periodicities and the Semiannual Variation in the Solar Wind, Radiation Belt, and Aurora

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Emery, Barbara A.; Richardson, Ian G.; Evans, David S.; Rich, Frederick J.; Wilson, Gordon R.

2011-01-01

The behavior of a number of solar wind, radiation belt, auroral and geomagnetic parameters is examined during the recent extended solar minimum and previous solar cycles, covering the period from January 1972 to July 2010. This period includes most of the solar minimum between Cycles 23 and 24, which was more extended than recent solar minima, with historically low values of most of these parameters in 2009. Solar rotational periodicities from S to 27 days were found from daily averages over 81 days for the parameters. There were very strong 9-day periodicities in many variables in 2005 -2008, triggered by recurring corotating high-speed streams (HSS). All rotational amplitudes were relatively large in the descending and early minimum phases of the solar cycle, when HSS are the predominant solar wind structures. There were minima in the amplitudes of all solar rotational periodicities near the end of each solar minimum, as well as at the start of the reversal of the solar magnetic field polarity at solar maximum (approx.1980, approx.1990, and approx. 2001) when the occurrence frequency of HSS is relatively low. Semiannual equinoctial periodicities, which were relatively strong in the 1995-1997 solar minimum, were found to be primarily the result of the changing amplitudes of the 13.5- and 27-day periodicities, where 13.5-day amplitudes were better correlated with heliospheric daily observations and 27-day amplitudes correlated better with Earth-based daily observations. The equinoctial rotational amplitudes of the Earth-based parameters were probably enhanced by a combination of the Russell-McPherron effect and a reduction in the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling efficiency during solstices. The rotational amplitudes were cross-correlated with each other, where the 27 -day amplitudes showed some of the weakest cross-correlations. The rotational amplitudes of the > 2 MeV radiation belt electron number fluxes were progressively weaker from 27- to 5-day periods, showing that processes in the magnetosphere act as a low-pass filter between the solar wind and the radiation belt. The A(sub p)/K(sub p) magnetic currents observed at subauroral latitudes are sensitive to proton auroral precipitation, especially for 9-day and shorter periods, while the A(sub p)/K(sub p) currents are governed by electron auroral precipitation for 13.5- and 27-day periodicities.

Molten salt power towers operating at 600–650 °C: Salt selection and cost benefits

DOE PAGES

Turchi, Craig S.; Vidal, Judith; Bauer, Matthew

2018-03-14

This analysis examines the potential benefit of adopting the supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2) Brayton cycle at 600-650 degrees C compared to the current state-of-the-art power tower operating a steam-Rankine cycle with solar salt at approximately 574 degrees C. The analysis compares a molten-salt power tower configuration using direct storage of solar salt (60:40 wt% sodium nitrate: potassium nitrate) or single-component nitrate salts at 600 degrees C or alternative carbonate- or chloride-based salts at 650 degrees C.

Molten salt power towers operating at 600–650 °C: Salt selection and cost benefits

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Turchi, Craig S.; Vidal, Judith; Bauer, Matthew

This analysis examines the potential benefit of adopting the supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2) Brayton cycle at 600-650 degrees C compared to the current state-of-the-art power tower operating a steam-Rankine cycle with solar salt at approximately 574 degrees C. The analysis compares a molten-salt power tower configuration using direct storage of solar salt (60:40 wt% sodium nitrate: potassium nitrate) or single-component nitrate salts at 600 degrees C or alternative carbonate- or chloride-based salts at 650 degrees C.

Seasonal and circadian biases in bird tracking with solar GPS-tags.

PubMed

Silva, Rafa; Afán, Isabel; Gil, Juan A; Bustamante, Javier

2017-01-01

Global Positioning System (GPS) tags are nowadays widely used in wildlife tracking. This geolocation technique can suffer from fix loss biases due to poor satellite GPS geometry, that result in tracking data gaps leading to wrong research conclusions. In addition, new solar-powered GPS tags deployed on birds can suffer from a new "battery drain bias" currently ignored in movement ecology analyses. We use a GPS tracking dataset of bearded vultures (Gypaetus barbatus), tracked for several years with solar GPS tags, to evaluate the causes and triggers of fix and data retrieval loss biases. We compare two models of solar GPS tags using different data retrieval systems (Argos vs GSM-GPRS), and programmed with different duty cycles. Neither of the models was able to accomplish the duty cycle programed initially. Fix and data retrieval loss rates were always greater than expected, and showed non-random gaps in GPS locations. Number of fixes per month of tracking was a bad criterion to identify tags with smaller biases. Fix-loss rates were four times higher due to battery drain than due to poor GPS satellite geometry. Both tag models were biased due to the uneven solar energy available for the recharge of the tag throughout the annual cycle, resulting in greater fix-loss rates in winter compared to summer. In addition, we suggest that the bias found along the diurnal cycle is linked to a complex three-factor interaction of bird flight behavior, topography and fix interval. More fixes were lost when vultures were perching compared to flying, in rugged versus flat topography. But long fix-intervals caused greater loss of fixes in dynamic (flying) versus static situations (perching). To conclude, we emphasize the importance of evaluating fix-loss bias in current tracking projects, and deploying GPS tags that allow remote duty cycle updates so that the most appropriate fix and data retrieval intervals can be selected.

Seasonal and circadian biases in bird tracking with solar GPS-tags

PubMed Central

Afán, Isabel; Gil, Juan A.; Bustamante, Javier

2017-01-01

Global Positioning System (GPS) tags are nowadays widely used in wildlife tracking. This geolocation technique can suffer from fix loss biases due to poor satellite GPS geometry, that result in tracking data gaps leading to wrong research conclusions. In addition, new solar-powered GPS tags deployed on birds can suffer from a new “battery drain bias” currently ignored in movement ecology analyses. We use a GPS tracking dataset of bearded vultures (Gypaetus barbatus), tracked for several years with solar GPS tags, to evaluate the causes and triggers of fix and data retrieval loss biases. We compare two models of solar GPS tags using different data retrieval systems (Argos vs GSM-GPRS), and programmed with different duty cycles. Neither of the models was able to accomplish the duty cycle programed initially. Fix and data retrieval loss rates were always greater than expected, and showed non-random gaps in GPS locations. Number of fixes per month of tracking was a bad criterion to identify tags with smaller biases. Fix-loss rates were four times higher due to battery drain than due to poor GPS satellite geometry. Both tag models were biased due to the uneven solar energy available for the recharge of the tag throughout the annual cycle, resulting in greater fix-loss rates in winter compared to summer. In addition, we suggest that the bias found along the diurnal cycle is linked to a complex three-factor interaction of bird flight behavior, topography and fix interval. More fixes were lost when vultures were perching compared to flying, in rugged versus flat topography. But long fix-intervals caused greater loss of fixes in dynamic (flying) versus static situations (perching). To conclude, we emphasize the importance of evaluating fix-loss bias in current tracking projects, and deploying GPS tags that allow remote duty cycle updates so that the most appropriate fix and data retrieval intervals can be selected. PMID:29020062

Anomalous Surge of the White-Light Corona at the Onset of the Declining Phase of Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamy, P.

2017-12-01

In late 2014, when the current solar cycle 24 was initiating its declining phase, the white-light corona as observed by the LASCO-C2 coronagraph underwent an unexpected surge that increased its global radiance by 60%, reaching a peak value comparable to those of the more active solar cycle 23. The daily variations point to a localized enhancement or bulge in the electron density that persisted during several months. Carrington maps of the radiance and of the HMI photospheric field allow connecting this bulge to the emergence of the large sunspot complex AR 12192 in October 2014, the largest since AR 6368 observed in November 1990. The resulting unusually large increase of the magnetic field and the distortion of the neutral sheet in a characteristic inverse S-shape caused the coronal plasma to be trapped along a similar pattern. Three-dimensional reconstruction of the electron density based on time-dependent solar rotational tomography supplemented by 2D inversion of the coronal radiance confirms the morphology of the bulge and reveals that its level was well above the standard models of a corona of the maximum type, by typically a factor of 3. A rather satisfactory agreement is found with the results of the thermodynamic MHD model produced by Predictive Sciences although discrepancies are noted. The specific configuration of the magnetic field that led to the coronal surge resulted from the interplay of various factors prevailing at the onset of the declining phase of the solar cycles which was particularly efficient in the case of solar cycle 24.

Current Status of an Organic Rankine Cycle Engine Development Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barber, R. E.

1984-01-01

The steps taken to achieve improved bearing life in the organic Rankine cycle (ORC) engine being developed for use on solar parabolic dishes are presented. A summary of test results is given. Dynamic tests on the machine shaft and rotors of the ORC engine are also discussed.

The solar dynamo and prediction of sunspot cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dikpati, Mausumi

2012-07-01

Much progress has been made in understanding the solar dynamo since Parker first developed the concepts of dynamo waves and magnetic buoyancy around 1955, and the German school first formulated the solar dynamo using the mean-field formalism. The essential ingredients of these mean-field dynamos are turbulent magnetic diffusivity, a source of lifting of flux, or 'alpha-effect', and differential rotation. With the advent of helioseismic and other observations at the Sun's photosphere and interior, as well as theoretical understanding of solar interior dynamics, solar dynamo models have evolved both in the realm of mean-field and beyond mean-field models. After briefly discussing the status of these models, I will focus on a class of mean-field model, called flux-transport dynamos, which include meridional circulation as an essential additional ingredient. Flux-transport dynamos have been successful in simulating many global solar cycle features, and have reached the stage that they can be used for making solar cycle predictions. Meridional circulation works in these models like a conveyor-belt, carrying a memory of the magnetic fields from 5 to 20 years back in past. The lower is the magnetic diffusivity, the longer is the model's memory. In the terrestrial system, the great-ocean conveyor-belt in oceanic models and Hadley, polar and Ferrel circulation cells in the troposphere, carry signatures from the past climatological events and influence the determination of future events. Analogously, the memory provided by the Sun's meridional circulation creates the potential for flux-transport dynamos to predict future solar cycle properties. Various groups in the world have built flux-transport dynamo-based predictive tools, which nudge the Sun's surface magnetic data and integrated forward in time to forecast the amplitude of the currently ascending cycle 24. Due to different initial conditions and different choices of unknown model-ingredients, predictions can vary; so it is for their cycle 24 forecasts. We all await the peak of cycle 24. I will close by discussing the prospects of improving dynamo-based predictive tools using more sophisticated data-assimilation techniques, such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter method and variational approaches.

ULF Waves in the Earth's Inner Magnetosphere: Role in Radiation Belt and Ring Current Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, I. R.; Murphy, K. R.; Rae, J.; Claudepierre, S. G.; Fennell, J. F.; Baker, D. N.; Reeves, G. D.; Spence, H. E.; Ozeke, L.; Milling, D. K.

2013-05-01

Ultra-low frequency (ULF) waves in the Pc4-5 band can be excited in the magnetosphere by the solar wind. Much recent work has shown how ULF wave power is strongly correlated with solar wind speed. However, little attention has been paid the dynamics of ULF wave power penetration onto low L-shells in the inner magnetosphere. We use more than a solar cycle of ULF wave data, derived from ground-based magnetometer networks, to examine this ULF wave power penetration and its dependence on solar wind and geomagnetic activity indices. In time domain data, we show very clearly that dayside ULF wave power, spanning more than 4 orders of magnitude, follows solar wind speed variations throughout the whole solar cycle - during periods of sporadic solar maximum ICMEs, during declining phase fast solar wind streams, and at solar minimum, alike. We also show that time domain ULF wave power increases during magnetic storms activations, and significantly demonstrate that a deeper ULF wave power penetration into the inner magnetosphere occurs during larger negative excursions in Dst. We discuss potential explanations for this low-L ULF wave power penetration, including the role of plasma mass density (such as during plasmaspheric erosion), or ring current ion instabilities during near-Earth ring current penetration. Interestingly, we also show that both ULF wave power and SAMPEX MeV electron flux show a remarkable similarity in their penetration to low-L, which suggests that ULF wave power penetration may be important for understanding and explaining radiation belt dynamics. Moreover, the correlation of ULF wave power with Dst, which peaks at one day lag, suggests the ULF waves might also be important for the inward transport of ions into the ring current. Current ring current models, which exclude long period ULF wave transport, under-estimate the ring current during fast solar wind streams which is consistent with a potential role for ULF waves in ring current energisation. Finally, the combination of data from ground arrays such as CARISMA and the contemporaneous operation of the NASA Van Allen Probes mission offers an excellent basis for understanding this cross-energy plasma coupling which spans more than 6 orders of magnitude in energy; we present an initial example of ULF-wave particle interaction using early mission data. This work has received funding from the European Union under the Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-Space) under grant agreement n 284520 for the MAARBLE (Monitoring, Analyzing and Assessing Radiation Belt Energization and Loss) collaborative research project.

Effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycling: interactions and feedbacks.

PubMed

Zepp, R G; Erickson, D J; Paul, N D; Sulzberger, B

2011-02-01

Solar UV radiation, climate and other drivers of global change are undergoing significant changes and models forecast that these changes will continue for the remainder of this century. Here we assess the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles and the interactions of these effects with climate change, including feedbacks on climate. Such interactions occur in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. While there is significant uncertainty in the quantification of these effects, they could accelerate the rate of atmospheric CO(2) increase and subsequent climate change beyond current predictions. The effects of predicted changes in climate and solar UV radiation on carbon cycling in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are expected to vary significantly between regions. The balance of positive and negative effects on terrestrial carbon cycling remains uncertain, but the interactions between UV radiation and climate change are likely to contribute to decreasing sink strength in many oceanic regions. Interactions between climate and solar UV radiation will affect cycling of elements other than carbon, and so will influence the concentration of greenhouse and ozone-depleting gases. For example, increases in oxygen-deficient regions of the ocean caused by climate change are projected to enhance the emissions of nitrous oxide, an important greenhouse and ozone-depleting gas. Future changes in UV-induced transformations of aquatic and terrestrial contaminants could have both beneficial and adverse effects. Taken in total, it is clear that the future changes in UV radiation coupled with human-caused global change will have large impacts on biogeochemical cycles at local, regional and global scales.

Studies of thermochemical water-splitting cycles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remick, R. J.; Foh, S. E.

1980-01-01

Higher temperatures and more isothermal heat profiles of solar heat sources are developed. The metal oxide metal sulfate class of cycles were suited for solar heat sources. Electrochemical oxidation of SO2 and thermochemical reactions are presented. Electrolytic oxidation of sulfur dioxide in dilute sulfuric acid solutions were appropriate for metal oxide metal sulfate cycles. The cell voltage at workable current densities required for the oxidation of SO2 was critical to the efficient operation of any metal oxide metal sulfate cycle. A sulfur dioxide depolarized electrolysis cell for the splitting of water via optimization of the anode reaction is discussed. Sulfuric acid concentrations of 30 to 35 weight percent are preferred. Platinized platinum or smooth platinum gave the best anode kinetics at a given potential of the five materials examined.

Penetration of Solar Wind Driven ULF Waves into the Earth's Inner Magnetosphere: Role in Radiation Belt and Ring Current Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, Ian; Murphy, Kyle; Rae, Jonathan; Ozeke, Louis; Milling, David

2013-04-01

Ultra-low frequency (ULF) waves in the Pc4-5 band can be excited in the magnetosphere by the solar wind. Much recent work has shown how ULF wave power is strongly correlated with solar wind speed. However, little attention has been paid the dynamics of ULF wave power penetration onto low L-shells in the inner magnetosphere. We use more than a solar cycle of ULF wave data, derived from ground-based magnetometer networks, to examine this ULF wave power penetration and its dependence on solar wind and geomagnetic activity indices. In time domain data, we show very clearly that dayside ULF wave power, spanning more than 4 orders of magnitude, follows solar wind speed variations throughout the whole solar cycle - during periods of sporadic solar maximum ICMEs, during declining phase fast solar wind streams, and at solar minimum, alike. We also show that time domain ULF wave power increases during magnetic storms activations, and significantly demonstrate that a deeper ULF wave power penetration into the inner magnetosphere occurs during larger negative excursions in Dst. We discuss potential explanations for this low-L ULF wave power penetration, including the role of plasma mass density (such as during plasmaspheric erosion), or ring current ion instabilities during near-Earth ring current penetration. Interestingly, we also show that both ULF wave power and SAMPEX MeV electron flux show a remarkable similarity in their penetration to low-L, which suggests that ULF wave power penetration may be important for understanding and explaining radiation belt dynamics. Moreover, the correlation of ULF wave power with Dst, which peaks at one day lag, suggests the ULF waves might also be important for the inward transport of ions into the ring current. Current ring current models, which exclude long period ULF wave transport, under-estimate the ring current during fast solar wind streams which is consistent with a potential role for ULF waves in ring current energisation. The combination of data from ground arrays such as CARISMA and the contemporaneous operation of the NASA Van Allen Probes (VAP) mission offers an excellent basis for understanding this cross-energy plasma coupling which spans more than 6 orders of magnitude in energy. Explaining the casual connections between plasmas in the plasmasphere (eV), ring current (keV), and radiation belt (MeV), via the intermediaries of plasma waves, is key to understanding inner magnetosphere dynamics. This work has received funding from the European Union under the Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-Space) under grant agreement n 284520 for the MAARBLE (Monitoring, Analyzing and Assessing Radiation Belt Energization and Loss) collaborative research project.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elliott, Heather A.; McComas, David J.; DeForest, Craig E.

We examine the long-term time evolution (1965–2015) of the relationships between solar wind proton temperature ( T {sub p}) and speed ( V {sub p}) and between the proton density ( n {sub p}) and speed using OMNI solar wind observations taken near Earth. We find a long-term decrease in the proton temperature–speed ( T {sub p}– V {sub p}) slope that lasted from 1972 to 2010, but has been trending upward since 2010. Since the solar wind proton density–speed ( n {sub p}– V {sub p}) relationship is not linear like the T {sub p}– V {sub p} relationship,more » we perform power-law fits for n {sub p}– V {sub p}. The exponent (steepness in the n {sub p}– V {sub p} relationship) is correlated with the solar cycle. This exponent has a stronger correlation with current sheet tilt angle than with sunspot number because the sunspot number maxima vary considerably from cycle to cycle and the tilt angle maxima do not. To understand this finding, we examined the average n {sub p} for different speed ranges, and found that for the slow wind n {sub p} is highly correlated with the sunspot number, with a lag of approximately four years. The fast wind n {sub p} variation was less, but in phase with the cycle. This phase difference may contribute to the n {sub p}– V {sub p} exponent correlation with the solar cycle. These long-term trends are important since empirical formulas based on fits to T {sub p} and V {sub p} data are commonly used to identify interplanetary coronal mass ejections, but these formulas do not include any time dependence. Changes in the solar wind density over a solar cycle will create corresponding changes in the near-Earth space environment and the overall extent of the heliosphere.« less

Intense Geomagnetic Storms of Solar Cycle 24 and Associated Energetics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rawat, R.; Echer, E.; Gonzalez, W. D.

2013-12-01

Solar cycle 24 commenced in November 2008 following a deep solar minimum. The solar activity picked up gradually and consequently led to increase in geomagnetic activity during the ascending phase of new cycle. From the start of this cycle till July 2013, only 12 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst < -100 nT) have occurred. We investigate the solar wind-interplanetary drivers for these intense geomagnetic storms using satellite data. Total energy Poynting flux (ɛ) representing the fraction of solar wind energy transferred into the magnetosphere during different storms will be calculated. Solar cycle 24 is weaker as compared to previous solar cycle (23). In this work, a comparative study of solar and geomagnetic signatures during the ascending phase of the two cycles will be carried out.

Actividad solar del ciclo 23. Predicción del máximo y fase decreciente utilizando redes neuronales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parodi, M. A.; Ceccatto, H. A.; Piacentini, R. D.; García, P. J.

Different methods have been proposed in order to predict the maximum amplitude of solar cycles, either as a consequence of the intrinsic importance of this event and because of its relation with solar storms and possible effects upon satellites, communication systems, etc. In this work, a neural network solar activity prediction is presented, measured through the sunspot number (SSN). The 16-units neural network, with a 12:3:1 architecture, was trained in a ``feed-forward" propagation way and learning by the so called ``back propagation rule". The annual mean SSN data in the 1700-1975 and 1987-1998 periods were used as the training set. The solar cycle 21 (1976-1986) was taken as the cross-validation data set. After performing the network training we obtained a prediction of the maximum annual mean for the current solar cycle 23, SSNmax= 135 ±17 at the year 2000, which is 13% smaller than the International Consensus Commitee's mean maximum prediction obtained through ``precursor techniques". On the other hand, our prediction is only about 4% smaller than the Consensus's neural network mean prediction. A ``multiple step" prediction technique was also performed and SSN annual mean predicted values for the near-maximum (from the present year 1999 to beyond the maximum) and the declining activity of solar cycle 23 are presented in this work. The sensibility of predictions is also tested. To do so, we changed the interval width and comparated our results with those of a previous neural network prediction and those of others authors using differents methods.

Nondissipative optimum charge regulator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosen, R.; Vitebsky, J. N.

1970-01-01

Optimum charge regulator provides constant level charge/discharge control of storage batteries. Basic power transfer and control is performed by solar panel coupled to battery through power switching circuit. Optimum controller senses battery current and modifies duty cycle of switching circuit to maximize current available to battery.

Status of Cycle 23 Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, D. H.

2000-01-01

A number of techniques for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle time scale are identified, described, and tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g,, regression and curve-fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month- by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but provide an estimate only of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides the most accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This precursor method gave a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154+21 for cycle 23. A mathematical function dependent upon the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude then describes the level of solar activity for the complete cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between recent activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast now gives a smoothed sunspot maximum of 140+20 for cycle 23. The success of the geomagnetic precursors in predicting future solar activity suggests that solar magnetic phenomena at latitudes above the sunspot activity belts are linked to solar activity, which occurs many years later in the lower latitudes.

Sq field characteristics at Phu Thuy, Vietnam, during solar cycle 23: comparisons with Sq field in other longitude sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham Thi Thu, H.; Amory-Mazaudier, C.; Le Huy, M.

2011-01-01

Quiet days variations in the Earth's magnetic field (the Sq current system) are compared and contrasted for the Asian, African and American sectors using a new dataset from Vietnam. This is the first presentation of the variation of the Earth's magnetic field (Sq), during the solar cycle 23, at Phu Thuy, Vietnam (geographic latitudes 21.03° N and longitude: 105.95° E). Phu Thuy observatory is located below the crest of the equatorial fountain in the Asian longitude sector of the Northern Hemisphere. The morphology of the Sq daily variation is presented as a function of solar cycle and seasons. The diurnal variation of Phu Thuy is compared to those obtained in different magnetic observatories over the world to highlight the characteristics of the Phu Thuy observations. In other longitude sectors we find different patterns. At Phu Thuy the solar cycle variation of the amplitude of the daily variation of the X component is correlated to the F.10.7 cm solar radiation (~0.74). This correlation factor is greater than the correlation factor obtained in two observatories located at the same magnetic latitudes in other longitude sectors: at Tamanrasset in the African sector (~0.42, geographic latitude ~22.79) and San Juan in the American sector (~0.03, geographic latitude ~18.38). At Phu Thuy, the Sq field exhibits an equinoctial and a diurnal asymmetry: - The seasonal variation of the monthly mean of X component exhibits the well known semiannual pattern with 2 equinox maxima, but the X component is larger in spring than in autumn. Depending of the phase of the sunspot cycle, the maximum amplitude of the X component varies in spring from 30 nT to 75 nT and in autumn from 20 nT to 60 nT. The maximum amplitude of the X component exhibits roughly the same variation in both solstices, varying from about ~20 nT to 50 nT, depending on the position into the solar cycle. - In all seasons, the mean equinoctial diurnal Y component has a morning maximum Larger than the afternoon minimum i.e. the equivalent current flow over a day is more southward than northward. During winter, the asymmetry is maximum, it erases the afternoon minimum. At the Gnangara observatory, in Asian Southern Hemisphere, the diurnal Y pattern is opposite and the current flow is more northward. It seems that in the Asian sector, the northern and southern Sq current cells both contribute strongly to the equatorial electrojet. The pattern is different in the African and American sectors where the northern Sq current cell contribution to the equatorial electrojet is smaller than the southern one. These observations can explain the unexpected maximum of amplitude of the equatorial electrojet observed in the Asian sector where the internal field is very large. During winter the Y component flow presents an anomaly, it is always southward during the whole day and there is no afternoon northward circulation.

42 years of continuous observations of the Solar 1 diameter from 1974 to 2015 - What do they forecast.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Humberto Andrei, Alexandre; Penna, Jucira; Boscardin, Sergio; Papa, Andres R. R.; Garcia, Marcos Antonio; Sigismondi, Costantino

2016-07-01

Several research groups in the world developed observational programs for the Sun in order to measure its apparent diameter over time with dedicated instruments, called solar astrolabes, since 1974. Their data have been gathered in several observing stations connected in the R2S3 (Réseau de Suivi au Sol du Rayon Solaire) network and through reciprocal visits and exchanges: Nice/Calern Observatoire/France, Rio de Janeiro Observatório Nacional/Brazil, Observatório de São Paulo IAGUSP/Brazil, Observatório Abrahão de Moraes IAGUSP/Brazil, Antalya Observatory/Turkey, San Fernando/Spain. Since all the optics and data treatment of the solar astrolabes was the same, from the oldest, with a single fixed objective prism, to the newest, with an angle variable objective prism and digital image acquisition, their results could be put together. Each instrument had its own density filter with a prismatic effect responsible for a particular shift. Thus, identical data gathering and just a different prismatic shift, enabled to reconcile all those series by using the common stretches and derive a single additive constant to place each one onto a common average. By doing so, although the value itself of the ground observed solar diameter is lost, its variations are determined over 35 years. On the combined series of the ground observed solar diameter a modulation with the 11 years main solar cycle is evident. However when such modulation is removed, both from the solar diameter compound series and from the solar activity series (as given by the sunspots count), a very strong anticorrelation is revealed. This suggested a larger diameter for the forthcoming cycles. This was very well verified for solar cycle 23, and correctly forecasted for cycle 24,in a behavior similar to that on the Minima of Dalton and Maunder. The ground monitoring keeps being routinely followed at Observatório Nacional in Rio de Janeiro, now using the Solar Heliometer, specially built to this end . The Heliometer has the same focal length and aperture of the earlier solar astrolabes, and the diameter determination uses the same physical and mathematical definition of the solar limb. Therefore the same robust, no-hypothesis, simple combination by an adding constant, can be used to include the Heliometer measurements along the previous long, continuous series. As a result the series of measurements of the variation of the solar diameter reaches 42 years, and covers also the solar cycle 24. In this paper we review all the individual series chief elements, as well as the calculation and values of the adding constants. We show the earlier comparison that lead to an anticorrelation at 0.867 to the solar activity record, when the 11 years modulation is expurgate, and exhibits an impressively accurate description of cycle 23. On the strength of such successful analysis we employ the new longer series to discuss the current solar cycle 24 and forecast for the following solar cycle 25. We thus advocate in favor of continued and continuous ground measurements of the solar diameter, on the usefulness of making these results available to the scientific community at large, and on the matter-of-fact, real variations of the solar diameter on long term time periods and/or local places on the Sun, in this case possibly associated to major magnetism driven solar transients.

The development of a solar-powered residential heating and cooling system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

Efforts to demonstrate the engineering feasibility of utilizing solar power for residential heating and cooling are described. These efforts were concentrated on the analysis, design, and test of a full-scale demonstration system which is currently under construction at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Alabama. The basic solar heating and cooling system under development utilizes a flat plate solar energy collector, a large water tank for thermal energy storage, heat exchangers for space heating and water heating, and an absorption cycle air conditioner for space cooling.

The study of Equatorial coronal hole during maximum phase of Solar Cycle 21, 22, 23 and 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karna, Mahendra; Karna, Nishu

2017-08-01

The 11-year Solar Cycle (SC) is characterized by the periodic change in the solar activity like sunspot numbers, coronal holes, active regions, eruptions such as flares and coronal mass ejections. We study the relationship between equatorial coronal holes (ECH) and the active regions (AR) as coronal whole positions and sizes change with the solar cycle. We made a detailed study of equatorial coronal hole for four solar maximum: Solar Cycle 21 (1979,1980,1981 and 1982), Solar Cycle 22 (1989, 1990, 1991 and 1992), Solar Cycle 23 (1999, 2000, 2001 and 2002) and Solar Cycle 24 (2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015). We used publically available NOAA solar coronal hole data for cycle 21 and 22. We measured the ECH region using the EIT and AIA synoptic map for cycle 23 and 24. We noted that in two complete 22-year cycle of solar activity, the equatorial coronal hole numbers in SC 22 is greater than SC 21 and similarly, SC 24 equatorial coronal hole numbers are greater than SC 23. Moreover, we also compared the position of AR and ECH during SC 23 and 24. We used daily Solar Region Summary (SRS) data from SWPC/NOAA website. Our goal is to examine the correlation between equatorial holes, active regions, and flares.

Dynamo-based scheme for forecasting the magnitude of solar activity cycles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Layden, A. C.; Fox, P. A.; Howard, J. M.; Sarajedini, A.; Schatten, K. H.

1991-01-01

This paper presents a general framework for forecasting the smoothed maximum level of solar activity in a given cycle, based on a simple understanding of the solar dynamo. This type of forecasting requires knowledge of the sun's polar magnetic field strength at the preceding activity minimum. Because direct measurements of this quantity are difficult to obtain, the quality of a number of proxy indicators already used by other authors is evaluated, which are physically related to the sun's polar field. These indicators are subjected to a rigorous statistical analysis, and the analysis technique for each indicator is specified in detail in order to simplify and systematize reanalysis for future use. It is found that several of these proxies are in fact poorly correlated or uncorrelated with solar activity, and thus are of little value for predicting activity maxima. Also presented is a scheme in which the predictions of the individual proxies are combined via an appropriately weighted mean to produce a compound prediction. The scheme is then applied to the current cycle 22, and a maximum smoothed international sunspot number of 171 + or - 26 is estimated.

Modelling rotational and cyclical spectral solar irradiance variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unruh, Yvonne

Solar irradiance changes are highly wavelength dependent: solar-cycle variations in the UV can be on the order of tens of percent, while changes in the visible are typically only of the order of one or two permille. With the launch of a number of instruments to measure spectral solar irradiance, we are now for a first time in a good position to explore the changing solar irradiance over a large range of wavelengths and to test our irradiance models as well as some of their underlying assumptions. I will introduce some of the current modelling approaches and present model-data comparisons, using the SATIRE irradiance model and SORCE/SIM measurements as an example. I will conclude by highlighting a number of outstanding questions regarding the modelling of spectral irradiance and current approaches to address these.

Role of ULF Waves in Radiation Belt and Ring Current Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, I. R.; Murphy, K. R.; Rae, I. J.; Ozeke, L.; Milling, D. K.

2013-12-01

Ultra-low frequency (ULF) waves in the Pc4-5 band can be excited in the magnetosphere by the solar wind. Much recent work has shown how ULF wave power is strongly correlated with solar wind speed. However, little attention has been paid the dynamics of ULF wave power penetration onto low L-shells in the inner magnetosphere. We use more than a solar cycle of ULF wave data, derived from ground-based magnetometer networks, to examine this ULF wave power penetration and its dependence on solar wind and geomagnetic activity indices. In time domain data, we show very clearly that dayside ULF wave power, spanning more than 4 orders of magnitude, follows solar wind speed variations throughout the whole solar cycle - during periods of sporadic solar maximum ICMEs, during declining phase fast solar wind streams, and at solar minimum, alike. We also show that time domain ULF wave power increases during magnetic storms activations, and significantly demonstrate that a deeper ULF wave power penetration into the inner magnetosphere occurs during larger negative excursions in Dst. We discuss potential explanations for this low-L ULF wave power penetration, including the role of plasma mass density (such as during plasmaspheric erosion), or ring current ion instabilities during near-Earth ring current penetration. Interestingly, we also show that both ULF wave power and SAMPEX MeV electron flux show a remarkable similarity in their penetration to low-L, which suggests that ULF wave power penetration may be important for understanding and explaining radiation belt dynamics. Moreover, the correlation of ULF wave power with Dst, which peaks at one day lag, suggests the ULF waves might also be important for the inward transport of ions into the ring current. Current ring current models, which exclude long period ULF wave transport, under-estimate the ring current during fast solar wind streams which is consistent with a potential role for ULF waves in ring current energisation. The combination of data from ground arrays such as CARISMA and the contemporaneous operation of the NASA Van Allen Probes (VAP) mission offers an excellent basis for understanding this cross-energy plasma coupling which spans more than 6 orders of magnitude in energy. Explaining the casual connections between plasmas in the plasmasphere (eV), ring current (keV), and radiation belt (MeV), via the intermediaries of plasma waves, is key to understanding inner magnetosphere dynamics. This work has received funding from the European Union under the Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-Space) under grant agreement n 284520 for the MAARBLE (Monitoring, Analyzing and Assessing Radiation Belt Energization and Loss) collaborative research project.

Three-Dimensional Evolution of Flux-Rope CMEs and Its Relation to the Local Orientation of the Heliospheric Current Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isavnin, A.; Vourlidas, A.; Kilpua, E. K. J.

2014-06-01

Flux ropes ejected from the Sun may change their geometrical orientation during their evolution, which directly affects their geoeffectiveness. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how solar flux ropes evolve in the heliosphere to improve our space-weather forecasting tools. We present a follow-up study of the concepts described by Isavnin, Vourlidas, and Kilpua ( Solar Phys. 284, 203, 2013). We analyze 14 coronal mass ejections (CMEs), with clear flux-rope signatures, observed during the decay of Solar Cycle 23 and rise of Solar Cycle 24. First, we estimate initial orientations of the flux ropes at the origin using extreme-ultraviolet observations of post-eruption arcades and/or eruptive prominences. Then we reconstruct multi-viewpoint coronagraph observations of the CMEs from ≈ 2 to 30 R⊙ with a three-dimensional geometric representation of a flux rope to determine their geometrical parameters. Finally, we propagate the flux ropes from ≈ 30 R⊙ to 1 AU through MHD-simulated background solar wind while using in-situ measurements at 1 AU of the associated magnetic cloud as a constraint for the propagation technique. This methodology allows us to estimate the flux-rope orientation all the way from the Sun to 1 AU. We find that while the flux-ropes' deflection occurs predominantly below 30 R⊙, a significant amount of deflection and rotation happens between 30 R⊙ and 1 AU. We compare the flux-rope orientation to the local orientation of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS). We find that slow flux ropes tend to align with the streams of slow solar wind in the inner heliosphere. During the solar-cycle minimum the slow solar-wind channel as well as the HCS usually occupy the area in the vicinity of the solar equatorial plane, which in the past led researchers to the hypothesis that flux ropes align with the HCS. Our results show that exceptions from this rule are explained by interaction with the Parker-spiraled background magnetic field, which dominates over the magnetic interaction with the HCS in the inner heliosphere at least during solar-minimum conditions.

The last dance of the bashful ballerina?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mursula, K.; Virtanen, I.

2011-01-01

Aims: The heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) has long been hemispherically asymmetric so that the field in the northern hemisphere is weaker and the area larger than in the south. This asymmetry, also called the bashful ballerina, has existed during roughly three-year intervals of the late declining to minimum phase of solar cycles 16-22. We study the HMF and its hemispheric asymmetry during the exceptional solar cycle 23. Methods: We use NASA National Space Science Data Center OMNI database, which contains all solar wind and HMF observations at the Earth's orbit, and coronal field predictions by Wilcox Solar Observatory. We present a new method to study the global hemispheric asymmetry by using the power n of the radial decrease of the radial field from the coronal source surface to 1 AU. Results: We find that the HMF is exceptional at low latitudes in solar cycle 23: while the typical latitudinal variation was attained in the north in 2008, it did not take place in the south until Spring 2009. Thus, the Rosenberg-Coleman rule is abnormally delayed or broken for the first time in 50 years. The n-values verify the clear northern dominance in cycles 21-22. However, the low-latitude observations depict a considerably smaller asymmetry in cycle 23, although Ulysses observations at high latitudes show an equally large asymmetry in 2007 and in 1994-1995. We argue that the weak low-latitude visibility of the asymmetry in cycle 23 is due to the exceptionally weak polar fields, leading to large tilt angle and a wide current sheet. Conclusions: We note that the exceptional properties of cycle 23 (weak dynamo, large tilt, small asymmetry) agree with the long-term evolution of hemispheric asymmetry viewed at the Earth. The active Sun is seen as more asymmetric at the Earth than the quiet Sun because the polar coronal holes with unipolar fields extend closer to the equator, allowing their asymmetry to be viewed even at low latitudes. We suggest that, after the period of weak activity and small asymmetry at 1 AU that started with cycle 23, the hemispheric asymmetry will again, with the increasingly active cycles, become better visible at 1 AU but the asymmetry will be oppositely oriented, including a northward shifted current sheet, and larger areas but weaker intensities in the south. Thus, the ballerina should no longer be systematically bashful for some 100-150 years. Figure 4 is only available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

The 11-year solar cycle in current reanalyses: a (non)linear attribution study of the middle atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuchar, A.; Sacha, P.; Miksovsky, J.; Pisoft, P.

2015-06-01

This study focusses on the variability of temperature, ozone and circulation characteristics in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere with regard to the influence of the 11-year solar cycle. It is based on attribution analysis using multiple nonlinear techniques (support vector regression, neural networks) besides the multiple linear regression approach. The analysis was applied to several current reanalysis data sets for the 1979-2013 period, including MERRA, ERA-Interim and JRA-55, with the aim to compare how these types of data resolve especially the double-peaked solar response in temperature and ozone variables and the consequent changes induced by these anomalies. Equatorial temperature signals in the tropical stratosphere were found to be in qualitative agreement with previous attribution studies, although the agreement with observational results was incomplete, especially for JRA-55. The analysis also pointed to the solar signal in the ozone data sets (i.e. MERRA and ERA-Interim) not being consistent with the observed double-peaked ozone anomaly extracted from satellite measurements. The results obtained by linear regression were confirmed by the nonlinear approach through all data sets, suggesting that linear regression is a relevant tool to sufficiently resolve the solar signal in the middle atmosphere. The seasonal evolution of the solar response was also discussed in terms of dynamical causalities in the winter hemispheres. The hypothetical mechanism of a weaker Brewer-Dobson circulation at solar maxima was reviewed together with a discussion of polar vortex behaviour.

High-latitude spacecraft charging in low-Earth polar orbit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frooninckx, Thomas B.

Spacecraft charging within the upper ionosphere is commonly thought to be insignificant and thus has received little attention. Recent experimental evidence has shown that electric potential differences as severe as 680 volts can develop between Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) polar-orbiting (840 kilometers) spacecraft and their high-latitude environment. To explore space vehicle charging in this region more fully, an analysis was performed using DMSP F6, F7, F8, and F9 satellite precipitating particle and ambient plasma measurements taken during the winters of 1986-87 (solar minimum) and 1989-90 (solar maximum). An extreme solar cycle dependence was discovered as charging occurred more frequently and with greater severity during the period of solar minimum. One hundred seventy charging events ranging from -46 to 1,430 volts were identified, and satellite measurements and Time Dependent Ionospheric Model (TDIM) output were used to characterize the environments which generated and inhibited these potentials. All current sources were considered to determine the cause of the solar cycle dependence.

The magnetic field of the earth - Performance considerations for space-based observing systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webster, W. J., Jr.; Taylor, P. T.; Schnetzler, C. C.; Langel, R. A.

1985-01-01

Basic problems inherent in carrying out observations of the earth magnetic field from space are reviewed. It is shown that while useful observations of the core and crustal fields are possible at the peak of the solar cycle, the greatest useful data volume is obtained during solar minimum. During the last three solar cycles, the proportion of data with a planetary disturbance index of less than 2 at solar maximum was in the range 0.4-0.8 in comparison with solar minimum. It is found that current state of the art orbit determination techniques should eliminate orbit error as a problem in gravitational field measurements from space. The spatial resolution obtained for crustal field anomalies during the major satellite observation programs of the last 30 years are compared in a table. The relationship between observing altitude and the spatial resolution of magnetic field structures is discussed. Reference is made to data obtained using the Magsat, the Polar Orbiting Geophysical Observatory (POGO), and instruments on board the Space Shuttle.

Design of a solar array simulator for the NASA EOS testbed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Steve J.; Sable, Dan M.; Lee, Fred C.; Cho, Bo H.

1992-01-01

The present spacecraft solar array simulator addresses both dc and ac characteristics as well as changes in illumination and temperature and performance degradation over the course of array service life. The computerized control system used allows simulation of a complete orbit cycle, in addition to automated diagnostics. The simulator is currently interfaced with the NASA EOS testbed.

Temporal variations in the position of the heliospheric equator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obridko, V. N.; Shelting, B. D.

2008-08-01

It is shown that the centroid of the heliospheric equator undergoes quasi-periodic oscillations. During the minimum of the 11-year cycle, the centroid shifts southwards (the so-called bashful-ballerina effect). The direction of the shift reverses during the solar maximum. The solar quadrupole is responsible for this effect. The shift is compared with the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet.

Fluidized-bed technology enabling the integration of high temperature solar receiver CSP systems with steam and advanced power cycles

DOE PAGES

Sakadjian, B.; Hu, S.; Maryamchik, M.; ...

2015-06-05

Solar Particle Receivers (SPR) are under development to drive concentrating solar plants (CSP) towards higher operating temperatures to support higher efficiency power conversion cycles. The novel high temperature SPR-based CSP system uses solid particles as the heat transfer medium (HTM) in place of the more conventional fluids such as molten salt or steam used in current state-of-the-art CSP plants. The solar particle receiver (SPR) is designed to heat the HTM to temperatures of 800 °C or higher which is well above the operating temperatures of nitrate-based molten salt thermal energy storage (TES) systems. The solid particles also help overcome somemore » of the other challenges associated with molten salt-based systems such as freezing, instability and degradation. The higher operating temperatures and use of low cost HTM and higher efficiency power cycles are geared towards reducing costs associated with CSP systems. This paper describes the SPR-based CSP system with a focus on the fluidized-bed (FB) heat exchanger and its integration with various power cycles. Furthermore, the SPR technology provides a potential pathway to achieving the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) target of $0.06/kWh that has been set by the U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot initiative.« less

Fluidized-bed technology enabling the integration of high temperature solar receiver CSP systems with steam and advanced power cycles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sakadjian, B.; Hu, S.; Maryamchik, M.

Solar Particle Receivers (SPR) are under development to drive concentrating solar plants (CSP) towards higher operating temperatures to support higher efficiency power conversion cycles. The novel high temperature SPR-based CSP system uses solid particles as the heat transfer medium (HTM) in place of the more conventional fluids such as molten salt or steam used in current state-of-the-art CSP plants. The solar particle receiver (SPR) is designed to heat the HTM to temperatures of 800 °C or higher which is well above the operating temperatures of nitrate-based molten salt thermal energy storage (TES) systems. The solid particles also help overcome somemore » of the other challenges associated with molten salt-based systems such as freezing, instability and degradation. The higher operating temperatures and use of low cost HTM and higher efficiency power cycles are geared towards reducing costs associated with CSP systems. This paper describes the SPR-based CSP system with a focus on the fluidized-bed (FB) heat exchanger and its integration with various power cycles. Furthermore, the SPR technology provides a potential pathway to achieving the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) target of $0.06/kWh that has been set by the U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot initiative.« less

On the Reduced Geoeffectiveness of Solar Cycle 24: A Moderate Storm Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Selvakumaran, R.; Veenadhari, B.; Akiyama, S.; Pandya, Megha; Gopalswamy, N,; Yashiro, S.; Kumar, Sandeep; Makela, P.; Xie, H.

2016-01-01

The moderate and intense geomagnetic storms are identified for the first 77 months of solar cycles 23 and 24. The solar sources responsible for the moderate geomagnetic storms are indentified during the same epoch for both the cycles. Solar cycle 24 has shown nearly 80% reduction in the occurrence of intense storms whereas it is only 40% in case of moderate storms when compared to previous cycle. The solar and interplanetary characteristics of the moderate storms driven by coronal mass ejection (CME) are compared for solar cycles 23 and 24 in order to see reduction in geoeffectiveness has anything to do with the occurrence of moderate storm. Though there is reduction in the occurrence of moderate storms, the Dst distribution does not show much difference. Similarly, the solar source parameters like CME speed, mass, and width did not show any significant variation in the average values as well as the distribution. The correlation between VBz and Dst is determined, and it is found to be moderate with value of 0.68 for cycle 23 and 0.61 for cycle 24. The magnetospheric energy flux parameter epsilon (epsilon) is estimated during the main phase of all moderate storms during solar cycles 23 and 24. The energy transfer decreased in solar cycle 24 when compared to cycle 23. These results are significantly different when all geomagnetic storms are taken into consideration for both the solar cycles.

Variation of Solar, Interplanetary and Geomagnetic Parameters during Solar Cycles 21-24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Suyeon; Kim, Bogyeong

2013-06-01

The length of solar cycle 23 has been prolonged up to about 13 years. Many studies have speculated that the solar cycle 23/24 minimum will indicate the onset of a grand minimum of solar activity, such as the Maunder Minimum. We check the trends of solar (sunspot number, solar magnetic fields, total solar irradiance, solar radio flux, and frequency of solar X-ray flare), interplanetary (interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind and galactic cosmic ray intensity), and geomagnetic (Ap index) parameters (SIG parameters) during solar cycles 21-24. Most SIG parameters during the period of the solar cycle 23/24 minimum have remarkably low values. Since the 1970s, the space environment has been monitored by ground observatories and satellites. Such prevalently low values of SIG parameters have never been seen. We suggest that these unprecedented conditions of SIG parameters originate from the weakened solar magnetic fields. Meanwhile, the deep 23/24 solar cycle minimum might be the portent of a grand minimum in which the global mean temperature of the lower atmosphere is as low as in the period of Dalton or Maunder minimum.

The Solar Cycle.

PubMed

Hathaway, David H

The solar cycle is reviewed. The 11-year cycle of solar activity is characterized by the rise and fall in the numbers and surface area of sunspots. A number of other solar activity indicators also vary in association with the sunspots including; the 10.7 cm radio flux, the total solar irradiance, the magnetic field, flares and coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic activity, galactic cosmic ray fluxes, and radioisotopes in tree rings and ice cores. Individual solar cycles are characterized by their maxima and minima, cycle periods and amplitudes, cycle shape, the equatorward drift of the active latitudes, hemispheric asymmetries, and active longitudes. Cycle-to-cycle variability includes the Maunder Minimum, the Gleissberg Cycle, and the Gnevyshev-Ohl (even-odd) Rule. Short-term variability includes the 154-day periodicity, quasi-biennial variations, and double-peaked maxima. We conclude with an examination of prediction techniques for the solar cycle and a closer look at cycles 23 and 24. Supplementary material is available for this article at 10.1007/lrsp-2015-4.

Polarity Comparison Between the Coronal PFSS Model Field and the Heliospheric Magnetic Field at 1 AU Over Solar Cycles 21-24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koskela, J. S.; Virtanen, I. I.; Mursula, K.

2015-12-01

The solar coronal magnetic field forms an important link between the underlying source in the solar photosphere and the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF). The coronal field has traditionally been calculated from the photospheric observations using various magnetic field models between the photosphere and the corona, in particular the potential field source surface (PFSS) model. Despite its simplicity, the predictions of the PFSS model generally agree quite well with the heliospheric observations and match very well with the predictions of more elaborate models. We make here a detailed comparison between the predictions of the PFSS model with the HMF field observed at 1 AU. We use the photospheric field measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory, SDO/HMI, SOHO/MDI and SOLIS, and the heliospheric magnetic field measurements at 1 AU collected within the OMNI 2 dataset. This database covers the solar cycles 21-24. We use different source surface distances and different numbers of harmonic components for the PFSS model. We find an optimum polarity match between the coronal field and the HMF for source surface distance of 3.5 Rs. Increasing the number of harmonic components beyond the quadrupole does not essentially improve polarity agreement, indicating that the large scale structure of the HMF at 1 AU is responsible for the agreement while the small scale structure is greatly modified between corona and 1 AU. We also discuss the solar cycle evolution of polarity match and find that the PFSS model prediction is most reliable during the declining phase of the solar cycle. We also find large differences in match percentage between northern and southern hemispheres during the times of systematic southward shift of the heliospheric current sheet (the Bashful ballerina).

Reading The Sun: A Three Dimensional Visual Model of The Solar Environment During Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carranza-fulmer, T. L.; Moldwin, M.

2014-12-01

The sun is a powerful force that has proven to our society that it has a large impact on our lives. Unfortunately, there is still a lack of awareness on how the sun is capable of affecting Earth. The over all idea of "Reading The Sun" installation is to help demonstrate how the sun impacts the Earth, by compiling various data sources from satellites (SOHO, SDO, and STERO) with solar and solar wind models (MAS and ENLIL) to create a comprehensive three dimensional display of the solar environment. It focuses on the current solar maximum of solar cycle 24 and a CME that impacted Earth's magnetic field on February 27, 2014, which triggered geomagnetic storms around the Earth's poles. The CME was an after-effect of a class X4.9 solar flare, which was released from the sun on February 25, 2014. "Reading The Sun" is a 48" x 48" x 48" hanging model of the sun with color coded open opposing magnetic field lines along with various layers of the solar atmosphere, the heliospheric current sheet, and the inner planets. At the center of the xyz axis is the sun with the open magnetic field lines and the heliospheric current sheet permeating inner planetary space. The xyz axes are color coded to represent various types of information with corresponding visual images for the viewer to be able to read the model. Along the z-axis are three colors (yellow, orange, and green) that represent the different layers of the solar atmosphere (photosphere, chromosphere, and corona) that correspond to three satellite images in various spectrums related to a CME and Solar Flare and the xy-plane shows where the inner planets are in relation to the sun. The exhibit in which "Reading The Sun "is being displayed is called, The Rotation of Language at the Wheather Again Gallery in Rockaway, New York. The intent of the exhibit is to both celebrate as well as present a cautionary tale on the ability of human language to spark and ignite the individual and collective imagination towards an experience simultaneously approaching the utopian as well as the dystopian.

Anomalous Surge of the White-Light Corona at the Onset of the Declining Phase of Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamy, P.; Boclet, B.; Wojak, J.; Vibert, D.

2017-04-01

In late 2014, when the current Solar Cycle 24 entered its declining phase, the white-light corona as observed by the LASCO-C2 coronagraph underwent an unexpected surge that increased its global radiance by 60%, reaching a peak value comparable to the peak values of the more active Solar Cycle 23. A comparison of the temporal variation of the white-light corona with the variations of several indices and proxies of solar activity indicate that it best matches the variation of the total magnetic field. The daily variations point to a localized enhancement or bulge in the electron density that persisted for several months. Carrington maps of the radiance and of the HMI photospheric field allow connecting this bulge to the emergence of the large sunspot complex AR 12192 in October 2014, the largest since AR 6368 observed in November 1990. The resulting unusually high increase of the magnetic field and the distortion of the neutral sheet in a characteristic inverse S-shape caused the coronal plasma to be trapped along a similar pattern. A 3D reconstruction of the electron density based on time-dependent solar rotational tomography supplemented by 2D inversion of the coronal radiance confirms the morphology of the bulge and reveals that its level was well above the standard models of a corona of the maximum type, by typically a factor of 3. A rather satisfactory agreement is found with the results of the thermodynamic MHD model produced by Predictive Sciences, although discrepancies are noted. The specific configuration of the magnetic field that led to the coronal surge resulted from the interplay of various factors prevailing at the onset of the declining phase of the solar cycles, which was particularly efficient in the case of Solar Cycle 24.

Sources of Geomagnetic Activity during Nearly Three Solar Cycles (1972-2000)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, I. G.; Cane, H. V.; Cliver, E. W.; White, Nicholas E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

We examine the contributions of the principal solar wind components (corotating highspeed streams, slow solar wind, and transient structures, i.e., interplanetary coronal mass ejections (CMEs), shocks, and postshock flows) to averages of the aa geomagnetic index and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength in 1972-2000 during nearly three solar cycles. A prime motivation is to understand the influence of solar cycle variations in solar wind structure on long-term (e.g., approximately annual) averages of these parameters. We show that high-speed streams account for approximately two-thirds of long-term aa averages at solar minimum, while at solar maximum, structures associated with transients make the largest contribution (approx. 50%), though contributions from streams and slow solar wind continue to be present. Similarly, high-speed streams are the principal contributor (approx. 55%) to solar minimum averages of the IMF, while transient-related structures are the leading contributor (approx. 40%) at solar maximum. These differences between solar maximum and minimum reflect the changing structure of the near-ecliptic solar wind during the solar cycle. For minimum periods, the Earth is embedded in high-speed streams approx. 55% of the time versus approx. 35% for slow solar wind and approx. 10% for CME-associated structures, while at solar maximum, typical percentages are as follows: high-speed streams approx. 35%, slow solar wind approx. 30%, and CME-associated approx. 35%. These compositions show little cycle-to-cycle variation, at least for the interval considered in this paper. Despite the change in the occurrences of different types of solar wind over the solar cycle (and less significant changes from cycle to cycle), overall, variations in the averages of the aa index and IMF closely follow those in corotating streams. Considering solar cycle averages, we show that high-speed streams account for approx. 44%, approx. 48%, and approx. 40% of the solar wind composition, aa, and the IMF strength, respectively, with corresponding figures of approx. 22%, approx. 32%, and approx. 25% for CME-related structures, and approx. 33%, approx. 19%, and approx. 33% for slow solar wind.

Mars atmospheric losses induced by the solar wind: current knowledge and perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ermakov, Vladimir; Zelenyi, Lev; Vaisberg, Oleg; Sementsov, Egor; Dubinin, Eduard

2017-04-01

Solar wind induced atmospheric losses have been studied since earlier 1970th. Several loss channels have been identified including pick-up of exospheric photo-ions and ionospheric ions escape. Measurements performed during several solar cycles showed variation of these losses by about factor of 10, being largest at maximum solar activity. MAVEN spacecraft equipped with comprehensive set of instruments with high temporal and mass resolution operating at Mars since fall 2014 ensures much better investigation of solar wind enforcing Martian environment, Mars atmospheric losses processes and mass loss rate. These issues are very important for understanding of Martian atmospheric evolution including water loss during cosmogonic time. Simultaneous observations by MAVEN and MEX spacecraft open the new perspective in study of Martian environment. In this report we discuss results of past and current missions and preliminary analysis of heavy ions escape using simultaneous measurements of MEX and MAVEN spacecraft.

Forecasting the impact of an 1859-caliber superstorm on geosynchronous Earth-orbiting satellites: Transponder resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odenwald, Sten F.; Green, James L.

2007-06-01

We calculate the economic impact on the existing geosynchronous Earth-orbiting satellite population of an 1859-caliber superstorm event were it to occur between 2008 and 2018 during the next solar activity cycle. From a detailed model for transponder capacity and leasing, we have investigated the total revenue loss over the entire solar cycle, as a function of superstorm onset year and intensity. Our Monte Carlo simulations of 1000 possible superstorms, of varying intensity and onset year, suggest that the minimum revenue loss could be of the order of 30 billion. The losses would be larger than this if more that 20 satellites are disabled, if future launch rates do not keep up with the expected rate of retirements, or if the number of spare transponders falls below ˜30%. Consequently, revenue losses can be significantly reduced below 30 billion if the current satellite population undergoes net growth beyond 300 units during Solar Cycle 24 and a larger margin of unused transponders is maintained.

Development of a solar-powered electric bicycle in bike sharing transportation system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhisuwignjo, S.; Siradjuddin, I.; Rifa'i, M.; Putri, R. I.

2017-06-01

The increasing mobility has directly led to deteriorating traffic conditions, extra fuel consumption, increasing automobile exhaust emissions, air pollution and lowering quality of life. Apart from being clean, cheap and equitable mode of transport for short-distance journeys, cycling can potentially offer solutions to the problem of urban mobility. Many cities have tried promoting cycling particularly through the implementation of bike-sharing. Apparently the fourth generation bikesharing system has been promoted utilizing electric bicycles which considered as a clean technology implementation. Utilization of solar power is probably the development keys in the fourth generation bikesharing system and will become the standard in bikesharing system in the future. Electric bikes use batteries as a source of energy, thus they require a battery charger system which powered from the solar cells energy. This research aims to design and implement electric bicycle battery charging system with solar energy sources using fuzzy logic algorithm. It is necessary to develop an electric bicycle battery charging system with solar energy sources using fuzzy logic algorithm. The study was conducted by means of experimental method which includes the design, manufacture and testing controller systems. The designed fuzzy algorithm have been planted in EEPROM microcontroller ATmega8535. The charging current was set at 1.2 Amperes and the full charged battery voltage was observed to be 40 Volts. The results showed a fuzzy logic controller was able to maintain the charging current of 1.2 Ampere with an error rate of less than 5% around the set point. The process of charging electric bike lead acid batteries from empty to fully charged was 5 hours. In conclusion, the development of solar-powered electric bicycle controlled using fuzzy logic controller can keep the battery charging current in solar-powered electric bicycle to remain stable. This shows that the fuzzy algorithm can be used as a controller in the process of charging for a solar electric bicycle.

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suggs, Ronnie J.

2017-01-01

The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to many space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar webpage and are updated as new monthly observations come available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to predict the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The prediction algorithm is applied recursively to produce monthly smoothed solar index values for the remaining of the cycle. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 12 months of observations are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suggs, Ron

2017-01-01

The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar web page and are updated as new monthly observations become available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to calculate the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 9 monthly observations from the start of the cycle are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.

A solar cycle dependence of nonlinearity in magnetospheric activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Jay R.; Wing, Simon

2005-04-01

The nonlinear dependencies inherent to the historical Kp data stream (1932-2003) are examined using mutual information and cumulant-based cost as discriminating statistics. The discriminating statistics are compared with surrogate data streams that are constructed using the corrected amplitude adjustment Fourier transform (CAAFT) method and capture the linear properties of the original Kp data. Differences are regularly seen in the discriminating statistics a few years prior to solar minima, while no differences are apparent at the time of solar maxima. These results suggest that the dynamics of the magnetosphere tend to be more linear at solar maximum than at solar minimum. The strong nonlinear dependencies tend to peak on a timescale around 40-50 hours and are statistically significant up to 1 week. Because the solar wind driver variables, VBs, and dynamical pressure exhibit a much shorter decorrelation time for nonlinearities, the results seem to indicate that the nonlinearity is related to internal magnetospheric dynamics. Moreover, the timescales for the nonlinearity seem to be on the same order as that for storm/ring current relaxation. We suggest that the strong solar wind driving that occurs around solar maximum dominates the magnetospheric dynamics, suppressing the internal magnetospheric nonlinearity. On the other hand, in the descending phase of the solar cycle just prior to solar minimum, when magnetospheric activity is weaker, the dynamics exhibit a significant nonlinear internal magnetospheric response that may be related to increased solar wind speed.

Thermal stress cycling of GaAs solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Janousek, B. K.; Francis, R. W.; Wendt, J. P.

1985-01-01

A thermal cycling experiment was performed on GaAs solar cells to establish the electrical and structural integrity of these cells under the temperature conditions of a simulated low-Earth orbit of 3-year duration. Thirty single junction GaAs cells were obtained and tests were performed to establish the beginning-of-life characteristics of these cells. The tests consisted of cell I-V power output curves, from which were obtained short-circuit current, open circuit voltage, fill factor, and cell efficiency, and optical micrographs, spectral response, and ion microprobe mass analysis (IMMA) depth profiles on both the front surfaces and the front metallic contacts of the cells. Following 5,000 thermal cycles, the performance of the cells was reexamined in addition to any factors which might contribute to performance degradation. It is established that, after 5,000 thermal cycles, the cells retain their power output with no loss of structural integrity or change in physical appearance.

Reconstructing the 11-year solar cycle length from cosmogenic radionuclides for the last 600 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsson, Emma; Adolphi, Florian; Mekhaldi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund

2017-04-01

The cyclic behavior of the solar magnetic field has been known for centuries and the 11-year solar cycle is one of the most important features directly visible on the solar disc. Using sunspot records it is evident that the length of this cycle is variable. A hypothesis of an inverse relationship between the average solar activity level and the solar cycle length has been put forward (e.g. Friis-Christensen & Lassen, 1991), indicating longer solar cycles during periods of low solar activity and vice versa. So far, studies of the behavior of the 11-year solar cycle have largely been limited for the last 4 centuries where observational sunspot data are available. However, cosmogenic radionuclides, such as 10Be and 14C from ice cores and tree rings allow an assessment of the strength of the open solar magnetic field due to its shielding influence on galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere. Similarly, very strong solar storms can leave their imprint in cosmogenic radionuclide records via solar proton-induced direct production of cosmogenic radionuclides in the Earth atmosphere. Here, we test the hypothesis of an inverse relationship between solar cycle length and the longer-term solar activity level by using cosmogenic radionuclide records as a proxy for solar activity. Our results for the last six centuries suggest significant solar cycle length variations that could exceed the range directly inferred from sunspot records. We discuss the occurrence of SPEs within the 11-year solar cycle from a radionuclide perspective, specifically the largest one known yet, at AD 774-5 (Mekhaldi et al., 2015). References: Friis-Christensen, E. & Lassen, K. Length of the solar-cycle - An indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate. Science 254, 698-700, doi:10.1126/science.254.5032.698 (1991). Mekhaldi, F., Muscheler, R., Adolphi, F., Aldahan, A., Beer, J., McConnell, J. R., Possnert, G., Sigl, M., Svensson, A., Synal, H. A., Welten, K. C. & Woodruff, T. E. Multiradionuclide evidence for the solar origin of the cosmic-ray events of AD 774/5 and 993/4. Nature Communications 6: 8, doi:10.1038/ncomms9611 (2015).

The Solar Cycle and, How Do We Know What We Know?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, Mitzi

2013-01-01

Through the use of observations, mathematics, mathematical tools (such as graphs), inference, testing, and prediction we have gathered evidence that there are sunspots, a solar cycle, and have begun to understand more about our star, the Sun. We are making progress in understanding the cause of the solar cycle. We expect solar cycle 24 to peak soon. Cycle 24 will be the smallest cycle in 100 years.

Spectroscopic planetary detection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deming, Drake

1988-01-01

One of the most promising methods for the detection of extra-solar planets is the spectroscopic method, where a small Doppler shift (approximately 10 meters/sec) in the spectrum of the parent star reveals the presence of planetary companions. However, solar-type stars may show spurious Doppler shifts due to surface activity. If these effects are periodic, as is the solar activity cycle, then they may masquerade as planetary companions. The goal of this investigation is to determine whether the solar cycle affects the Doppler stability of integrated sunlight. Observations of integrated sunlight are made in the near infrared (approximately 2 micrometer), using the Kitt Peak McMath Fourier transform spectrometer, with an N2O gas absorption cell for calibration. Researchers currently achieve an accuracy of approximately 5 meters/sec. Solar rotation velocities vary by plus or minus 2000 meters/sec across the solar disk, and imperfect optical integration of these velocities is the principal source of error. We have been monitoring the apparent velocity of integrated sunlight since 1983. They initially saw a decrease of approximately 30 meters/sec in the integrated light velocity from 1983 through 1985, but in 1987 to 1988 the integrated light velocity returned to its 1983 level. It is too early to say whether these changes are solar-cycle related. Although the FTS, unlike a slit spectrograph, has a large field of view, researchers are always looking for ways to improve the optical integration of the solar disk. They recently made an improvement in the method used to optically collimate the FTS, and this has reduced the error level, eliminating some systematic effects seen earlier.

Coronal and heliospheric magnetic flux circulation and its relation to open solar flux evolution

PubMed Central

Owens, Mathew J.; Imber, Suzanne M.; James, Matthew K.; Bunce, Emma J.; Yeoman, Timothy K.

2017-01-01

Abstract Solar cycle 24 is notable for three features that can be found in previous cycles but which have been unusually prominent: (1) sunspot activity was considerably greater in the northern/southern hemisphere during the rising/declining phase; (2) accumulation of open solar flux (OSF) during the rising phase was modest, but rapid in the early declining phase; (3) the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) tilt showed large fluctuations. We show that these features had a major influence on the progression of the cycle. All flux emergence causes a rise then a fall in OSF, but only OSF with foot points in opposing hemispheres progresses the solar cycle via the evolution of the polar fields. Emergence in one hemisphere, or symmetric emergence without some form of foot point exchange across the heliographic equator, causes poleward migrating fields of both polarities in one or both (respectively) hemispheres which temporarily enhance OSF but do not advance the polar field cycle. The heliospheric field observed near Mercury and Earth reflects the asymmetries in emergence. Using magnetograms, we find evidence that the poleward magnetic flux transport (of both polarities) is modulated by the HCS tilt, revealing an effect on OSF loss rate. The declining phase rise in OSF was caused by strong emergence in the southern hemisphere with an anomalously low HCS tilt. This implies the recent fall in the southern polar field will be sustained and that the peak OSF has limited implications for the polar field at the next sunspot minimum and hence for the amplitude of cycle 25. PMID:28781930

Coronal and heliospheric magnetic flux circulation and its relation to open solar flux evolution.

PubMed

Lockwood, Mike; Owens, Mathew J; Imber, Suzanne M; James, Matthew K; Bunce, Emma J; Yeoman, Timothy K

2017-06-01

Solar cycle 24 is notable for three features that can be found in previous cycles but which have been unusually prominent: (1) sunspot activity was considerably greater in the northern/southern hemisphere during the rising/declining phase; (2) accumulation of open solar flux (OSF) during the rising phase was modest, but rapid in the early declining phase; (3) the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) tilt showed large fluctuations. We show that these features had a major influence on the progression of the cycle. All flux emergence causes a rise then a fall in OSF, but only OSF with foot points in opposing hemispheres progresses the solar cycle via the evolution of the polar fields. Emergence in one hemisphere, or symmetric emergence without some form of foot point exchange across the heliographic equator, causes poleward migrating fields of both polarities in one or both (respectively) hemispheres which temporarily enhance OSF but do not advance the polar field cycle. The heliospheric field observed near Mercury and Earth reflects the asymmetries in emergence. Using magnetograms, we find evidence that the poleward magnetic flux transport (of both polarities) is modulated by the HCS tilt, revealing an effect on OSF loss rate. The declining phase rise in OSF was caused by strong emergence in the southern hemisphere with an anomalously low HCS tilt. This implies the recent fall in the southern polar field will be sustained and that the peak OSF has limited implications for the polar field at the next sunspot minimum and hence for the amplitude of cycle 25.

Solar cycle in current reanalyses: (non)linear attribution study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuchar, A.; Sacha, P.; Miksovsky, J.; Pisoft, P.

2014-12-01

This study focusses on the variability of temperature, ozone and circulation characteristics in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere with regard to the influence of the 11 year solar cycle. It is based on attribution analysis using multiple nonlinear techniques (Support Vector Regression, Neural Networks) besides the traditional linear approach. The analysis was applied to several current reanalysis datasets for the 1979-2013 period, including MERRA, ERA-Interim and JRA-55, with the aim to compare how this type of data resolves especially the double-peaked solar response in temperature and ozone variables and the consequent changes induced by these anomalies. Equatorial temperature signals in the lower and upper stratosphere were found to be sufficiently robust and in qualitative agreement with previous observational studies. The analysis also pointed to the solar signal in the ozone datasets (i.e. MERRA and ERA-Interim) not being consistent with the observed double-peaked ozone anomaly extracted from satellite measurements. Consequently the results obtained by linear regression were confirmed by the nonlinear approach through all datasets, suggesting that linear regression is a relevant tool to sufficiently resolve the solar signal in the middle atmosphere. Furthermore, the seasonal dependence of the solar response was also discussed, mainly as a source of dynamical causalities in the wave propagation characteristics in the zonal wind and the induced meridional circulation in the winter hemispheres. The hypothetical mechanism of a weaker Brewer Dobson circulation was reviewed together with discussion of polar vortex stability.

Deep space telecommunications and the solar cycle: A reappraisal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berman, A. L.

1978-01-01

Observations of density enhancement in the near corona at solar cycle (sunspot) maximum have rather uncritically been interpreted to apply equally well to the extended corona, thus generating concern about the quality of outer planet navigational data at solar cycle maximum. Spacecraft have been deployed almost continuously during the recently completed solar cycle 20, providing two powerful new coronal investigatory data sources: (1) in-situ spacecraft plasma measurements at approximately 1 AU, and (2) plasma effects on monochromatic spacecraft signals at all signal closest approach points. A comprehensive review of these (solar cycle 20) data lead to the somewhat surprising conclusions that for the region of interest of navigational data, the highest levels of charged particle corruption of navigational data can be expected to occur at solar cycle minimum, rather than solar cycle maximum, as previously believed.

Thermal power systems, point-focusing distributed receiver technology project. Volume 2: Detailed report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lucas, J.

1979-01-01

Thermal or electrical power from the sun's radiated energy through Point-Focusing Distributed Receiver technology is the goal of this Project. The energy thus produced must be economically competitive with other sources. The Project supports the industrial development of technology and hardware for extracting energy from solar power to achieve the stated goal. Present studies are working to concentrate the solar energy through mirrors or lenses, to a working fluid or gas, and through a power converter change to an energy source useful to man. Rankine-cycle and Brayton-cycle engines are currently being developed as the most promising energy converters for our near future needs.

From space weather toward space climate time scales: Substorm analysis from 1993 to 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanskanen, E. I.; Pulkkinen, T. I.; Viljanen, A.; Mursula, K.; Partamies, N.; Slavin, J. A.

2011-05-01

Magnetic activity in the Northern Hemisphere auroral region was examined during solar cycles 22 and 23 (1993-2008). Substorms were identified from ground-based magnetic field measurements by an automated search engine. On average, 550 substorms were observed per year, which gives in total about 9000 substorms. The interannual, seasonal and solar cycle-to-cycle variations of the substorm number (Rss), substorm duration (Tss), and peak amplitude (Ass) were examined. The declining phases of both solar cycles 22 and 23 were more active than the other solar cycle phases due to the enhanced solar wind speed. The spring substorms during the declining solar cycle phase (∣Ass,decl∣ = 500 nT) were 25% larger than the spring substorms during the ascending solar cycle years (∣Ass,acs∣ = 400 nT). The following seasonal variation was found: the most intense substorms occurred during spring and fall, the largest substorm frequency in the Northern Hemisphere winter, and the longest-duration substorms in summer. Furthermore, we found a winter-summer asymmetry in the substorm number and duration, which is speculated to be due to the variations in the ionospheric conductivity. The solar cycle-to-cycle variation was found in the yearly substorm number and peak amplitude. The decline from the peak substorm activity in 1994 and 2003 to the following minima took 3 years during solar cycle 22, while it took 6 years during solar cycle 23.

Solar dynamic power system definition study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wallin, Wayne E.; Friefeld, Jerry M.

1988-01-01

The solar dynamic power system design and analysis study compared Brayton, alkali-metal Rankine, and free-piston Stirling cycles with silicon planar and GaAs concentrator photovoltaic power systems for application to missions beyond the Phase 2 Space Station level of technology for all power systems. Conceptual designs for Brayton and Stirling power systems were developed for 35 kWe and 7 kWe power levels. All power systems were designed for 7-year end-of-life conditions in low Earth orbit. LiF was selected for thermal energy storage for the solar dynamic systems. Results indicate that the Stirling cycle systems have the highest performance (lowest weight and area) followed by the Brayton cycle, with photovoltaic systems considerably lower in performance. For example, based on the performance assumptions used, the planar silicon power system weight was 55 to 75 percent higher than for the Stirling system. A technology program was developed to address areas wherein significant performance improvements could be realized relative to the current state-of-the-art as represented by Space Station. In addition, a preliminary evaluation of hardenability potential found that solar dynamic systems can be hardened beyond the hardness inherent in the conceptual designs of this study.

Deciphering The Fall And Rise Of The Dead Sea In Relation To Solar Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yousef, Shahinaz M.

2005-03-01

Solar Forcing on closed seas and Lakes is space time dependent. The Cipher of the Dead Sea level variation since 1200 BC is solved in the context of millenium and Wolf-Gleissberg solar cycles time scales. It is found that the pattern of Dead Sea level variation follows the pattern of major millenium solar cycles. The 70 m rise of Dead Sea around 1AD is due to the forcing of the maximum millenium major solar cycle. Although the pattern of the Dead Sea level variation is almost identical to major solar cycles pattern between 1100 and 1980 AD, there is a dating problem of the Dead Sea time series around 1100-1300 AD that time. A discrepancy that should be corrected for the solar and Dead Sea series to fit. Detailed level variations of the Dead Sea level for the past 200 years are solved in terms of the 80-120 years solar Wolf-Gliessberg magnetic cycles. Solar induced climate changes do happen at the turning points of those cycles. Those end-start and maximum turning points are coincident with the change in the solar rotation rate due to the presence of weak solar cycles. Such weak cycles occur in series of few cycles between the end and start of those Wolf-Gleissberg cycles. Another one or two weak r solar cycle occur following the maximum of those Wolf-Gleissberg cycles. Weak cycles induce drop in the energy budget emitted from the sun and reaching the Earth thus causing solar induced climate change. An 8 meter sudden rise of Dead Sea occur prior 1900 AD due to positive solar forcing of the second cycle of the weak cycles series on the Dead Sea. The same second weak cycle induced negative solar forcing on Lake Chad. The first weak solar cycle forced Lake Victoria to rise abruptly in 1878. The maximum turning point of the solar Wolf-Gleissberg cycle induced negative forcing on both the Aral Sea and the Dead Sea causing their shrinkage to an alarming reduced area ever since. On the other hand, few years delayed positive forcing caused Lake Chad and the Equatorial African lakes to rise abruptly by several meters. Since the present solar cycle number 23 is the first weak cycle of a series, and since it caused 1.6 m sharp rise in Lake Victoria in 1997, then there is a high probability that the Dead Sea will rise by the beginning of the second weak cycle in few years time. And since both the Aral Sea and the Dead Sea are very much in coherence since the late 1950s, then it is rather likely that the Aral Sea will rise with God's wish in the near future. However it is also demanded that Israel should allow more water of the Jordan River to feed the Dead Sea before its real death. Plans for joining the Dead sea to the Red and or to the Mediterranean Seas should be cancelled owing the damaging harm it will cause the Dead Sea as a perfect indicator of solar induced climate change on one hand. On the other hand, the Dead Sea time series always show abrupt changes that can be as high as 70 m; if we add to this a planned artificial rise of the Dead Sea to its level of the thirties, then a damaging flooding effect will ruin the establishments and environment greatly.

Predicting Solar Cycle 24 Using a Geomagnetic Precursor Pair

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, W. Dean

2014-01-01

We describe using Ap and F(10.7) as a geomagnetic-precursor pair to predict the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24. The precursor is created by using F(10.7) to remove the direct solar-activity component of Ap. Four peaks are seen in the precursor function during the decline of Solar Cycle 23. A recurrence index that is generated by a local correlation of Ap is then used to determine which peak is the correct precursor. The earliest peak is the most prominent but coincides with high levels of non-recurrent solar activity associated with the intense solar activity of October and November 2003. The second and third peaks coincide with some recurrent activity on the Sun and show that a weak cycle precursor closely following a period of strong solar activity may be difficult to resolve. A fourth peak, which appears in early 2008 and has recurrent activity similar to precursors of earlier solar cycles, appears to be the "true" precursor peak for Solar Cycle 24 and predicts the smallest amplitude for Solar Cycle 24. To determine the timing of peak activity it is noted that the average time between the precursor peak and the following maximum is approximately equal to 6.4 years. Hence, Solar Cycle 24 would peak during 2014. Several effects contribute to the smaller prediction when compared with other geomagnetic-precursor predictions. During Solar Cycle 23 the correlation between sunspot number and F(10.7) shows that F(10.7) is higher than the equivalent sunspot number over most of the cycle, implying that the sunspot number underestimates the solar-activity component described by F(10.7). During 2003 the correlation between aa and Ap shows that aa is 10 % higher than the value predicted from Ap, leading to an overestimate of the aa precursor for that year. However, the most important difference is the lack of recurrent activity in the first three peaks and the presence of significant recurrent activity in the fourth. While the prediction is for an amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 of 65 +/- 20 in smoothed sunspot number, a below-average amplitude for Solar Cycle 24, with maximum at 2014.5+/-0.5, we conclude that Solar Cycle 24 will be no stronger than average and could be much weaker than average.

Radiance And Irradiance Of The Solar HeII 304 Emission Line

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMullin, D. R.; Floyd, L. E.; Auchère, F.

2013-12-01

For over 17 years, EIT and the later EUVI instruments aboard SoHO and STEREO, respectively, have provided a time series of radiant images in the HeII 30.4 nm transition region and three coronal emission lines (FeIX/X, FeXII, and FeXV). While the EIT measurements were gathered from positions approximately on the Earth-Sun axis, EUVI images have been gathered at angles ranging to more than ×90 degrees in solar longitude relative the Earth-Sun axis. Using a Differential Emission Measure (DEM) model, these measurements provide a basis for estimates of the spectral irradiance for the solar spectrum of wavelengths between 15 and 50 nm at any position in the heliosphere. In particular, we generate the He 30.4 spectral irradiance in all directions in the heliosphere and examine its time series in selected directions. Such spectra are utilized for two distinct purposes. First, the photoionization rate of neutral He at each position is calculated. Neutral He is of interest because it traverses the heliopause relatively undisturbed and therefore provides a measure of isotopic parameters beyond the heliosphere. Second, we use these generate a time series of estimates of the solar spectral luminosity in the HeII 30.4 nm emission line extending from the recent past solar cycle 23 minimum into the current weak solar cycle 24 enabling an estimate of its variation over the solar cycle. Because this 30.4~nm spectral luminosity is the sum of such radiation in all directions, its time series is devoid of the 27-day solar rotation periodicity present in indices typically used to represent solar activity.

Solar Sail Models and Test Measurements Correspondence for Validation Requirements Definition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ewing, Anthony; Adams, Charles

2004-01-01

Solar sails are being developed as a mission-enabling technology in support of future NASA science missions. Current efforts have advanced solar sail technology sufficient to justify a flight validation program. A primary objective of this activity is to test and validate solar sail models that are currently under development so that they may be used with confidence in future science mission development (e.g., scalable to larger sails). Both system and model validation requirements must be defined early in the program to guide design cycles and to ensure that relevant and sufficient test data will be obtained to conduct model validation to the level required. A process of model identification, model input/output documentation, model sensitivity analyses, and test measurement correspondence is required so that decisions can be made to satisfy validation requirements within program constraints.

Observations and statistical simulations of a proposed solar cycle/QBO/weather relationship

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baldwin, M.P.; Dunkerton, T.J.

1989-08-01

The 10.7 cm solar flux is observed to be highly correlated with north pole stratospheric temperatures when partitioned according to the phase of the equatorial stratospheric winds (the quasi-biennial oscillation, or QBO). The authors supplement observations with calculations showing that temperatures over most of the northern hemisphere are highly correlated or anticorrelated with north pole temperatures. The observed spatial pattern of solar cycle correlations at high latitudes is shown to be not unique to the solar cycle. The authors present results, similar to the observed solar cycle correlations, with simulated harmonics of various periods replacing the solar cycle. These calculationsmore » demonstrate the correlations at least as high as those for the solar cycle results may be obtained using simulated harmonics.« less

Dynamo theory prediction of solar activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth H.

1988-01-01

The dynamo theory technique to predict decadal time scale solar activity variations is introduced. The technique was developed following puzzling correlations involved with geomagnetic precursors of solar activity. Based upon this, a dynamo theory method was developed to predict solar activity. The method was used successfully in solar cycle 21 by Schatten, Scherrer, Svalgaard, and Wilcox, after testing with 8 prior solar cycles. Schatten and Sofia used the technique to predict an exceptionally large cycle, peaking early (in 1990) with a sunspot value near 170, likely the second largest on record. Sunspot numbers are increasing, suggesting that: (1) a large cycle is developing, and (2) that the cycle may even surpass the largest cycle (19). A Sporer Butterfly method shows that the cycle can now be expected to peak in the latter half of 1989, consistent with an amplitude comparable to the value predicted near the last solar minimum.

The 2015 Summer Solstice Storm: One of the Major Geomagnetic Storms of Solar Cycle 24 Observed at Ground Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Augusto, C. R. A.; Navia, C. E.; de Oliveira, M. N.; Nepomuceno, A. A.; Raulin, J. P.; Tueros, E.; de Mendonça, R. R. S.; Fauth, A. C.; Vieira de Souza, H.; Kopenkin, V.; Sinzi, T.

2018-05-01

We report on the 22 - 23 June 2015 geomagnetic storm that occurred at the summer solstice. There have been fewer intense geomagnetic storms during the current solar cycle, Solar Cycle 24, than in the previous cycle. This situation changed after mid-June 2015, when one of the largest solar active regions (AR 12371) of Solar Cycle 24 that was located close to the central meridian, produced several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with M-class flares. The impact of these CMEs on the Earth's magnetosphere resulted in a moderate to severe G4-class geomagnetic storm on 22 - 23 June 2015 and a G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm on 24 June. The G4 solstice storm was the second largest (so far) geomagnetic storm of Cycle 24. We highlight the ground-level observations made with the New-Tupi, Muonca, and the CARPET El Leoncito cosmic-ray detectors that are located within the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) region. These observations are studied in correlation with data obtained by space-borne detectors (ACE, GOES, SDO, and SOHO) and other ground-based experiments. The CME designations are taken from the Computer Aided CME Tracking (CACTus) automated catalog. As expected, Forbush decreases (FD) associated with the passing CMEs were recorded by these detectors. We note a peculiar feature linked to a severe geomagnetic storm event. The 21 June 2015 CME 0091 (CACTus CME catalog number) was likely associated with the 22 June summer solstice FD event. The angular width of CME 0091 was very narrow and measured {˜} 56° degrees seen from Earth. In most cases, only CME halos and partial halos lead to severe geomagnetic storms. We perform a cross-check analysis of the FD events detected during the rise phase of Solar Cycle 24, the geomagnetic parameters, and the CACTus CME catalog. Our study suggests that narrow angular-width CMEs that erupt in a westward direction from the Sun-Earth line can lead to moderate and severe geomagnetic storms. We also report on the strong solar proton radiation storm that began on 21 June. We did not find a signal from this SEP at ground level. The details of these observations are presented.

Interplanetary magnetic field over two solar cycles and out to 20 AU

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, J. E.

1989-01-01

Interplanetary field measurements are now available from Pioneer and Voyager at large distances and from various spacecraft in the inner solar system. These multiple observations at different locations have proven indispensable in separating temporal from spatial dependences. The data set has revealed a number of characteristic solar cycle variations including changes in field strength and the inclination of the heliospheric current sheet responsible for magnetic sectors. Spatial gradients in the field parameters out to 20 AU have been compared with the Parker Model including the spiral angle, the north-south field component and the magnitude. As a result of planetary encounters, Pioneer and the Voyagers are traveling outward at significantly different latitudes making it possible to investigate latitudinal, as well as radial, dependences. Effects associated with the pick-up of interstellar ions are being sought.

Solar UV radiation variations and their stratospheric and climatic effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Donnelly, R. F.; Heath, D. F.

1985-01-01

Nimbus-7 SBUV measurements of the short-term solar UV variations caused by solar rotation and active-region evolution have determined the amplitude and wavelength dependence for the active-region component of solar UV variations. Intermediate-term variations lasting several months are associated with rounds of major new active regions. The UV flux stays near the peak value during the current solar cycle variation for more than two years and peaks about two years later than the sunspot number. Nimbus-7 measurements have observed the concurrent stratospheric ozone variations caused by solar UV variations. There is now no doubt that solar UV variations are an important cause of short- and long-term stratospheric variations, but the strength of the coupling to the troposphere and to climate has not yet been proven.

Propagation of Interplanetary Disturbances in the Outer Heliosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Chi

2005-01-01

Contents include the following: 1. We have developed a one-dimensional, spherically symmetric, multi-fluid MHD model that includes solar wind protons and electrons, pickup ions, and interstellar neutral hydrogen. This model advances the existing solar wind models for the outer heliosphere in two important ways: one is that it distinguishes solar wind protons from pickup ions, and the other is that it allows for energy transfer from pickup ions to the solar wind protons. Model results compare favorably with the Voyager 2 observations. 2. 2. Solar wind slowdown and interstellar neutral density. The solar wind in the outer heliosphere is fundamentally different from that in the inner heliosphere since the effects of interstellar neutrals become significant. 3. ICME propagation from the inner to outer heliosphere. Large coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have major effects on the structure of the solar wind and the heliosphere. The plasma and magnetic field can be compressed ahead of interplanetary CMEs. 4. During the current solar cycle (Cycle 23), several major CMEs associated with solar flares produced large transient shocks which were observed by widely-separated spacecraft such as Wind at Earth and Voyager 2 beyond 60 AU. Using data from these spacecraft, we use the multi-fluid model to investigate shock propagation and interaction in the heliosphere. Specifically, we studied the Bastille Day 2000, April 2001 and Halloween 2003 events. 5. Statistical properties of the solar wind in the outer heliosphere. In a collaboration with L.F. Burlaga of GSFC, it is shown that the basic statistical properties of the solar wind in the outer heliosphere can be well produced by our model. We studied the large-scale heliospheric magnetic field strength fluctuations as a function of distance from the Sun during the declining phase of a solar cycle, using our numerical model with observations made at 1 AU during 1995 as input. 6. Radial heliospheric magnetic field events. The heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) direction, on average, conforms well to the Parker spiral.

Solar Activity Heading for a Maunder Minimum?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schatten, K. H.; Tobiska, W. K.

2003-05-01

Long-range (few years to decades) solar activity prediction techniques vary greatly in their methods. They range from examining planetary orbits, to spectral analyses (e.g. Fourier, wavelet and spectral analyses), to artificial intelligence methods, to simply using general statistical techniques. Rather than concentrate on statistical/mathematical/numerical methods, we discuss a class of methods which appears to have a "physical basis." Not only does it have a physical basis, but this basis is rooted in both "basic" physics (dynamo theory), but also solar physics (Babcock dynamo theory). The class we discuss is referred to as "precursor methods," originally developed by Ohl, Brown and Williams and others, using geomagnetic observations. My colleagues and I have developed some understanding for how these methods work and have expanded the prediction methods using "solar dynamo precursor" methods, notably a "SODA" index (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude). These methods are now based upon an understanding of the Sun's dynamo processes- to explain a connection between how the Sun's fields are generated and how the Sun broadcasts its future activity levels to Earth. This has led to better monitoring of the Sun's dynamo fields and is leading to more accurate prediction techniques. Related to the Sun's polar and toroidal magnetic fields, we explain how these methods work, past predictions, the current cycle, and predictions of future of solar activity levels for the next few solar cycles. The surprising result of these long-range predictions is a rapid decline in solar activity, starting with cycle #24. If this trend continues, we may see the Sun heading towards a "Maunder" type of solar activity minimum - an extensive period of reduced levels of solar activity. For the solar physicists, who enjoy studying solar activity, we hope this isn't so, but for NASA, which must place and maintain satellites in low earth orbit (LEO), it may help with reboost problems. Space debris, and other aspects of objects in LEO will also be affected. This research is supported by the NSF and NASA.

The new climate data record of total and spectral solar irradiance: Current progress and future steps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coddington, Odele; Lean, Judith; Rottman, Gary; Pilewskie, Peter; Snow, Martin; Lindholm, Doug

2016-04-01

We present a climate data record of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and Solar Spectral Irradiance (SSI), with associated time and wavelength dependent uncertainties, from 1610 to the present. The data record was developed jointly by the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) at the University of Colorado Boulder and the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) as part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Climate Data Record (CDR) Program, where the data record, source code, and supporting documentation are archived. TSI and SSI are constructed from models that determine the changes from quiet Sun conditions arising from bright faculae and dark sunspots on the solar disk using linear regression of proxies of solar magnetic activity with observations from the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM), Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM), and SOlar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE). We show that TSI can be separately modeled to within TIM's measurement accuracy from solar rotational to solar cycle time scales and we assume that SSI measurements are reliable on solar rotational time scales. We discuss the model formulation, uncertainty estimates, and operational implementation and present comparisons of the modeled TSI and SSI with the measurement record and with other solar irradiance models. We also discuss ongoing work to assess the sensitivity of the modeled irradiances to model assumptions, namely, the scaling of solar variability from rotational-to-cycle time scales and the representation of the sunspot darkening index.

Ka-band and X-band observations of the solar corona acquired during the Cassini 2001 superior conjunction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morabito, D. D.

2002-01-01

Simultaneous dual-frequency Ka-band (32 GHz) and X-band (8.4 GHz) carrier signal data have been acquired during the superior conjunction of the Cassini spacecraft June 2001, using the NASA Deep Space Network's facilities located in Goldstone, California. The solar elongation angle of the observations varied from -4.1 degrees (-16 solar radii) to -0.6 degrees (-2.3 solar radii). The observed coronal and solar effects on the signals include spectral broadening, amplitude scintillation, phase scintillation, and increased noise. The measurements were generally consistent with existing solar models, except during solar transient events when the signatures of the measurements were observed to increase significantly above the quiet background levels. This is the second solar conjunction of Cassini for which simultaneous X/Ka data were acquired. Both solar conjunctions, conducted in May 2000 and June 2001, occurred near the peak of the current 11 year solar cycle.

Solar magnetic fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hood, Alan W.; Hughes, David W.

2011-08-01

This review provides an introduction to the generation and evolution of the Sun's magnetic field, summarising both observational evidence and theoretical models. The eleven year solar cycle, which is well known from a variety of observed quantities, strongly supports the idea of a large-scale solar dynamo. Current theoretical ideas on the location and mechanism of this dynamo are presented. The solar cycle influences the behaviour of the global coronal magnetic field and it is the eruptions of this field that can impact on the Earth's environment. These global coronal variations can be modelled to a surprising degree of accuracy. Recent high resolution observations of the Sun's magnetic field in quiet regions, away from sunspots, show that there is a continual evolution of a small-scale magnetic field, presumably produced by small-scale dynamo action in the solar interior. Sunspots, a natural consequence of the large-scale dynamo, emerge, evolve and disperse over a period of several days. Numerical simulations can help to determine the physical processes governing the emergence of sunspots. We discuss the interaction of these emerging fields with the pre-existing coronal field, resulting in a variety of dynamic phenomena.

Lessons Learned from 10 Years of STEREO Solar Wind Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jian, L. K.; Russell, C. T.; Luhmann, J. G.; Galvin, A. B.

2017-12-01

We have conducted long-term observations of large-scale solar wind structures since the launch of STEREO spacecraft, specifically interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), slow-to-fast stream interaction regions (SIRs), and interplanetary shocks. In combination with our previous observations of the same solar wind structures in 1995-2009 using Wind/ACE data and the same identification criteria, we have first studied the solar cycle variations of these structures, especially for the same phases of solar cycles 23 and 24. Attributing the shocks to the interplanetary drivers, we have statistically compared the shocks driven by ICMEs and SIRs, and explained the shocks without a clear local driver. In addition, using the longitudinal and latitudinal separations between the twin spacecraft, we have investigated the recurrence and variability of ICMEs and SIRs, and gained the critical implications for the proposed L5 mission. At last, we have associated the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) crossings with the ICMEs and SIRs, and compared the properties of SIRs with and without HCS crossings, which correspond to the helmet streamers and pseudostreamers, respectively. The findings are important constraints on the theories of slow wind origin.

Evolution of Our Understanding of the Solar Dynamo During Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Jaramillo, A.

2017-12-01

Solar cycle 24 has been an exciting cycle for our understanding of the solar dynamo: 1. It was the first cycle for which dynamo based predictions were ever used teaching us valuable lessons. 2. It has given us the opportunity to observe a deep minimum and a weak cycle with a high level of of observational detail . 3. It is full of breaktrhoughs in anelastic MHD dynamo simulations (regular cycles, buoyant flux-tubes, mounder-like events). 4. It has seen the creation of bridges between the kinematic flux-transport and anelastic MHD approaches. 5. It has ushered a new generation of realistic surface flux-transport simulations 6. We have achieved significant observational progress in our understanding of solar cycle propagation. The objective of this talk is to highlight some of the most important results, giving special emphasis on what they have taught us about solar cycle predictability.

The asymmetry of the heliospheric current sheet during solar cycle 23: The last dance of the bashful ballerina?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mursula, K.; Virtanen, I. I.

2010-05-01

The heliospheric magnetic field has long been hemispherically asymmetric so that the field in the northern hemisphere is weaker and the area larger than in the south. This asymmetry, also called the bashful ballerina, has existed during three-year intervals in the late declining to minimum phase of solar cycles 16-22. We study here the HMF and its hemispheric asymmetry during solar cycle 23. We find that the latitudinal ordering of HMF sectors at low latitudes is exceptional in SC 23: the normal latitudinal variation was not established in the south by Spring 2009, implying that the Rosenberg-Coleman rule is abnormally delayed or broken during this cycle. Comparing the radial field at 1AU and at the coronal source surface footpoint, we show that the HCS was southward shifted even in SC 23 but the shift is considerably smaller than in earlier cycles. We also study the HMF observations during the third perihelion pass of the Ulysses probe in 2007, and find that the northern field was some 0.2 nT stronger than the southern field and that the whole HCS region was clearly shifted southward by about 2°-5°. Accordingly, the north-south asymmetry existed even in SC 23 but was largely masked out in ecliptic observations due to the exceptionally weak polar fields, leading to an abnormally large HCS tilt angle and a wide equatorial belt region. We also note that historical evidence at the ecliptic suggests a connection between solar dipole strength and the size of north-south asymmetry observed there. Based on this, one can predict that, after the present period of weak solar activity started in SC 23, the hemispheric asymmetry will grow again with increasing activity, but the orientation of the asymmetry will be opposite. Thus, after SC 23, the solar ballerina will not be bashful for some 100-150 years.

MODULATION OF GALACTIC COSMIC RAYS OBSERVED AT L1 IN SOLAR CYCLE 23

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fludra, A., E-mail: Andrzej.Fludra@stfc.ac.uk

2015-01-20

We analyze a unique 15 yr record of galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) measurements made by the SOHO Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer NIS detectors, recording integrated GCR numbers with energies above 1.0 GeV between 1996 July and 2011 June. We are able to closely reproduce the main features of the SOHO/CDS GCR record using the modulation potential calculated from neutron monitor data by Usoskin et al. The GCR numbers show a clear solar cycle modulation: they decrease by 50% from the 1997 minimum to the 2000 maximum of the solar cycle, then return to the 1997 level in 2007 and continue to rise, in 2009 Decembermore » reaching a level 25% higher than in 1997. This 25% increase is in contrast with the behavior of Ulysses/KET GCR protons extrapolated to 1 AU in the ecliptic plane, showing the same level in 2008-2009 as in 1997. The GCR numbers are inversely correlated with the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. In particular, the continued increase of SOHO/CDS GCRs from 2007 until 2009 is correlated with the decrease of the minimum tilt angle from 30° in mid-2008 to 5° in late 2009. The GCR level then drops sharply from 2010 January, again consistent with a rapid increase of the tilt angle to over 35°. This shows that the extended 2008 solar minimum was different from the 1997 minimum in terms of the structure of the heliospheric current sheet.« less

Heat engine development for solar thermal power systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, H. Q.; Jaffe, L. D.

The parabolic dish solar collector systems for converting sunlight to electrical power through a heat engine will, require a small heat engine of high performance long lifetime to be competitive with conventional power systems. The most promising engine candidates are Stirling, high temperature Brayton, and combined cycle. Engines available in the current market today do not meet these requirements. The development of Stirling and high temperature Brayton for automotive applications was studied which utilizes much of the technology developed in this automotive program for solar power engines. The technical status of the engine candidates is reviewed and the components that may additional development to meet solar thermal system requirements are identified.

Coupled optical/thermal/fluid analysis and design requirements for operation and testing of a supercritical CO 2 solar receiver.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khivsara, Sagar

Recent studies have evaluated closed-loop supercritical carbon dioxide (s-CO 2) Brayton cycles to be a higher energy-density system in comparison to conventional superheated steam Rankine systems. At turbine inlet conditions of 923K and 25 MPa, high thermal efficiency (~50%) can be achieved. Achieving these high efficiencies will make concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies a competitive alternative to current power generation methods. To incorporate a s-CO 2 Brayton power cycle in a solar power tower system, the development of a solar receiver capable of providing an outlet temperature of 923 K (at 25 MPa) is necessary. To satisfy the temperature requirementsmore » of a s-CO 2 Brayton cycle with recuperation and recompression, it is required to heat s-CO 2 by a temperature of ~200 K as it passes through the solar receiver. Our objective was to develop an optical-thermal-fluid model to design and evaluate a tubular receiver that will receive a heat input ~1 MWth from a heliostat field. We also undertook the documentation of design requirements for the development, testing and safe operation of a direct s-CO 2 solar receiver. The main purpose of this document is to serve as a reference and guideline for design and testing requirements, as well as to address the technical challenges and provide initial parameters for the computational models that will be employed for the development of s-CO 2 receivers.« less

WFIRST: Exoplanet Data Challenge. Atmospheric retrieval results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hildebrandt, Sergi; Turnbull, Margaret; Exoplanet Data Challenge Team

2018-01-01

We present the results of the Exoplanet Data Challenge for its first 2016/17 cycle and the current cycle 2. Some input spectra for extra-solar systems are processed through the WFIRST IFS instrument model, producing simulated data representative of the flight data. Atmospheric properties are then recovered using complex atmospheric models and multidimensional optimization. The results inform about WFIRST CGI ability to characterize exo-planetray atmospheres.

Coronal and heliospheric magnetic flux circulation and its relation to open solar flux evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lockwood, Mike; Owens, Mathew J.; Imber, Suzanne M.; James, Matthew K.; Bunce, Emma J.; Yeoman, Timothy K.

2017-06-01

Solar cycle 24 is notable for three features that can be found in previous cycles but which have been unusually prominent: (1) sunspot activity was considerably greater in the northern/southern hemisphere during the rising/declining phase; (2) accumulation of open solar flux (OSF) during the rising phase was modest, but rapid in the early declining phase; (3) the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) tilt showed large fluctuations. We show that these features had a major influence on the progression of the cycle. All flux emergence causes a rise then a fall in OSF, but only OSF with foot points in opposing hemispheres progresses the solar cycle via the evolution of the polar fields. Emergence in one hemisphere, or symmetric emergence without some form of foot point exchange across the heliographic equator, causes poleward migrating fields of both polarities in one or both (respectively) hemispheres which temporarily enhance OSF but do not advance the polar field cycle. The heliospheric field observed near Mercury and Earth reflects the asymmetries in emergence. Using magnetograms, we find evidence that the poleward magnetic flux transport (of both polarities) is modulated by the HCS tilt, revealing an effect on OSF loss rate. The declining phase rise in OSF was caused by strong emergence in the southern hemisphere with an anomalously low HCS tilt. This implies the recent fall in the southern polar field will be sustained and that the peak OSF has limited implications for the polar field at the next sunspot minimum and hence for the amplitude of cycle 25.