Solar wind and coronal structure near sunspot minimum - Pioneer and SMM observations from 1985-1987
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Mihalov, J. D.; Barnes, A.; Hundhausen, A. J.; Smith, E. J.
1990-01-01
Changes in solar wind speed and magnetic polarity observed at the Pioneer spacecraft are discussed here in terms of the changing magnetic geometry implied by SMM coronagraph observations over the period 1985-1987. The pattern of recurrent solar wind streams, the long-term average speed, and the sector polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field all changed in a manner suggesting both a temporal variation, and a changing dependence on heliographic latitude. Coronal observations during this epoch show a systematic variation in coronal structure and the magnetic structure imposed on the expanding solar wind. These observations suggest interpretation of the solar wind speed variations in terms of the familiar model where the speed increases with distance from a nearly flat interplanetary current sheet, and where this current sheet becomes aligned with the solar equatorial plane as sunspot minimum approaches, but deviates rapidly from that orientation after minimum.
UNUSUAL TRENDS IN SOLAR P-MODE FREQUENCIES DURING THE CURRENT EXTENDED MINIMUM
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Tripathy, S. C.; Jain, K.; Hill, F.
2010-03-10
We investigate the behavior of the intermediate-degree mode frequencies of the Sun during the current extended minimum phase to explore the time-varying conditions in the solar interior. Using contemporaneous helioseismic data from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) and the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI), we find that the changes in resonant mode frequencies during the activity minimum period are significantly greater than the changes in solar activity as measured by different proxies. We detect a seismic minimum in MDI p-mode frequency shifts during 2008 July-August but no such signature is seen in mean shifts computed from GONG frequencies. We alsomore » analyze the frequencies of individual oscillation modes from GONG data as a function of latitude and observe a signature of the onset of the solar cycle 24 in early 2009. Thus, the intermediate-degree modes do not confirm the onset of the cycle 24 during late 2007 as reported from the analysis of the low-degree Global Oscillations at Low Frequency frequencies. Further, both the GONG and MDI frequencies show a surprising anti-correlation between frequencies and activity proxies during the current minimum, in contrast to the behavior during the minimum between cycles 22 and 23.« less
Implications of Extended Solar Minima
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Adams, Mitzi L.; Davis, J. M.
2009-01-01
Since the discovery of periodicity in the solar cycle, the historical record of sunspot number has been carefully examined, attempting to make predictions about the next cycle. Much emphasis has been on predicting the maximum amplitude and length of the next cycle. Because current space-based and suborbital instruments are designed to study active phenomena, there is considerable interest in estimating the length and depth of the current minimum. We have developed criteria for the definition of a minimum and applied it to the historical sunspot record starting in 1749. In doing so, we find that 1) the current minimum is not yet unusually long and 2) there is no obvious way of predicting when, using our definition, the current minimum may end. However, by grouping the data into 22- year cycles there is an interesting pattern of extended minima that recurs every fourth or fifth 22-year cycle. A preliminary comparison of this pattern with other records, suggests the possibility of a correlation between extended minima and lower levels of solar irradiance.
Field aligned current study during the solar declining- extreme minimum of 23 solar cycle
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nepolian, Jeni Victor; Kumar, Anil; C, Panneerselvam
Field Aligned Current (FAC) density study has been carried out during the solar declining phase from 2004 to 2006 of the 23rd solar cycle and the ambient terrestrial magnetic field of the extended minimum period of 2008 and 2009. We mainly depended on CHAMP satellite data (http://isdc.gfz-potsdam.de/) for computing the FAC density with backup of IGRF-10 model. The study indicates that, the FAC is controlled by quasi-viscous processes occurring at the flank of the earth’s magnetosphere. The dawn-dusk conventional pattern enhanced during disturbed days. The intensity of R1 current system is higher than the R2 current system. Detailed results will be discussed in the conference.
Does the Current Minimum Validate (or Invalidate) Cycle Prediction Methods?
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hathaway, David H.
2010-01-01
This deep, extended solar minimum and the slow start to Cycle 24 strongly suggest that Cycle 24 will be a small cycle. A wide array of solar cycle prediction techniques have been applied to predicting the amplitude of Cycle 24 with widely different results. Current conditions and new observations indicate that some highly regarded techniques now appear to have doubtful utility. Geomagnetic precursors have been reliable in the past and can be tested with 12 cycles of data. Of the three primary geomagnetic precursors only one (the minimum level of geomagnetic activity) suggests a small cycle. The Sun's polar field strength has also been used to successfully predict the last three cycles. The current weak polar fields are indicative of a small cycle. For the first time, dynamo models have been used to predict the size of a solar cycle but with opposite predictions depending on the model and the data assimilation. However, new measurements of the surface meridional flow indicate that the flow was substantially faster on the approach to Cycle 24 minimum than at Cycle 23 minimum. In both dynamo predictions a faster meridional flow should have given a shorter cycle 23 with stronger polar fields. This suggests that these dynamo models are not yet ready for solar cycle prediction.
Little or no solar wind enters Venus' atmosphere at solar minimum.
Zhang, T L; Delva, M; Baumjohann, W; Auster, H-U; Carr, C; Russell, C T; Barabash, S; Balikhin, M; Kudela, K; Berghofer, G; Biernat, H K; Lammer, H; Lichtenegger, H; Magnes, W; Nakamura, R; Schwingenschuh, K; Volwerk, M; Vörös, Z; Zambelli, W; Fornacon, K-H; Glassmeier, K-H; Richter, I; Balogh, A; Schwarzl, H; Pope, S A; Shi, J K; Wang, C; Motschmann, U; Lebreton, J-P
2007-11-29
Venus has no significant internal magnetic field, which allows the solar wind to interact directly with its atmosphere. A field is induced in this interaction, which partially shields the atmosphere, but we have no knowledge of how effective that shield is at solar minimum. (Our current knowledge of the solar wind interaction with Venus is derived from measurements at solar maximum.) The bow shock is close to the planet, meaning that it is possible that some solar wind could be absorbed by the atmosphere and contribute to the evolution of the atmosphere. Here we report magnetic field measurements from the Venus Express spacecraft in the plasma environment surrounding Venus. The bow shock under low solar activity conditions seems to be in the position that would be expected from a complete deflection by a magnetized ionosphere. Therefore little solar wind enters the Venus ionosphere even at solar minimum.
Ionospheric control of the dawn-dusk asymmetry of the Mars magnetotail current sheet
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liemohn, Michael W.; Xu, Shaosui; Dong, Chuanfei; Bougher, Stephen W.; Johnson, Blake C.; Ilie, Raluca; De Zeeuw, Darren L.
2017-06-01
This study investigates the role of solar EUV intensity at controlling the location of the Mars magnetotail current sheet and the structure of the lobes. Four simulation results are examined from a multifluid magnetohydrodynamic model. The solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions are held constant, and the Mars crustal field sources are omitted from the simulation configuration. This isolates the influence of solar EUV. It is found that solar maximum conditions, regardless of season, result in a Venus-like tail configuration with the current sheet shifted to the -Y (dawnside) direction. Solar minimum conditions result in a flipped tail configuration with the current sheet shifted to the +Y (duskside) direction. The lobes follow this pattern, with the current sheet shifting away from the larger lobe with the higher magnetic field magnitude. The physical process responsible for this solar EUV control of the magnetotail is the magnetization of the dayside ionosphere. During solar maximum, the ionosphere is relatively strong and the draped IMF field lines quickly slip past Mars. At solar minimum, the weaker ionosphere allows the draped IMF to move closer to the planet. These lower altitudes of the closest approach of the field line to Mars greatly hinder the day-to-night flow of magnetic flux. This results in a buildup of magnetic flux in the dawnside lobe as the S-shaped topology on that side of the magnetosheath extends farther downtail. The study demonstrates that the Mars dayside ionosphere exerts significant control over the nightside induced magnetosphere of that planet.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Emery, Barbara A.; Richardson, Ian G.; Evans, David S.; Rich, Frederick J.; Wilson, Gordon R.
2011-01-01
The behavior of a number of solar wind, radiation belt, auroral and geomagnetic parameters is examined during the recent extended solar minimum and previous solar cycles, covering the period from January 1972 to July 2010. This period includes most of the solar minimum between Cycles 23 and 24, which was more extended than recent solar minima, with historically low values of most of these parameters in 2009. Solar rotational periodicities from S to 27 days were found from daily averages over 81 days for the parameters. There were very strong 9-day periodicities in many variables in 2005 -2008, triggered by recurring corotating high-speed streams (HSS). All rotational amplitudes were relatively large in the descending and early minimum phases of the solar cycle, when HSS are the predominant solar wind structures. There were minima in the amplitudes of all solar rotational periodicities near the end of each solar minimum, as well as at the start of the reversal of the solar magnetic field polarity at solar maximum (approx.1980, approx.1990, and approx. 2001) when the occurrence frequency of HSS is relatively low. Semiannual equinoctial periodicities, which were relatively strong in the 1995-1997 solar minimum, were found to be primarily the result of the changing amplitudes of the 13.5- and 27-day periodicities, where 13.5-day amplitudes were better correlated with heliospheric daily observations and 27-day amplitudes correlated better with Earth-based daily observations. The equinoctial rotational amplitudes of the Earth-based parameters were probably enhanced by a combination of the Russell-McPherron effect and a reduction in the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling efficiency during solstices. The rotational amplitudes were cross-correlated with each other, where the 27 -day amplitudes showed some of the weakest cross-correlations. The rotational amplitudes of the > 2 MeV radiation belt electron number fluxes were progressively weaker from 27- to 5-day periods, showing that processes in the magnetosphere act as a low-pass filter between the solar wind and the radiation belt. The A(sub p)/K(sub p) magnetic currents observed at subauroral latitudes are sensitive to proton auroral precipitation, especially for 9-day and shorter periods, while the A(sub p)/K(sub p) currents are governed by electron auroral precipitation for 13.5- and 27-day periodicities.
Solar Effects on Climate and the Maunder Minimum: Minimum Certainty
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rind, David
2003-01-01
The current state of our understanding of solar effects on climate is reviewed. As an example of the relevant issues, the climate during the Maunder Minimum is compared with current conditions in GCM simulations that include a full stratosphere and parameterized ozone response to solar spectral irradiance variability and trace gas changes. The GISS Global Climate/Middle Atmosphere Model coupled to a q-flux/mixed layer model is used for the simulations, which begin in 1500 and extend to the present. Experiments were made to investigate the effect of total versus spectrally-varying solar irradiance changes; spectrally-varying solar irradiance changes on the stratospheric ozone/climate response with both pre-industrial and present trace gases; and the impact on climate and stratospheric ozone of the preindustrial trace gases and aerosols by themselves. The results showed that: (1) the Maunder Minimum cooling relative to today was primarily associated with reduced anthropogenic radiative forcing, although the solar reduction added 40% to the overall cooling. There is no obvious distinguishing surface climate pattern between the two forcings. (2)The global and tropical response was greater than 1 C, in a model with a sensitivity of 1.2 C per W m-2. To reproduce recent low-end estimates would require a sensitivity 1/4 as large. (3) The global surface temperature change was similar when using the total and spectral irradiance prescriptions, although the tropical response was somewhat greater with the former, and the stratospheric response greater with the latter. (4) Most experiments produce a relative negative phase of the NAO/AO during the Maunder Minimum, with both solar and anthropogenic forcing equally capable, associated with the tropical cooling and relative poleward EP flux refraction. (5) A full stratosphere appeared to be necessary for the negative AO/NAO phase, as was the case with this model for global warming experiments, unless the cooling was very large, while the ozone response played a minor role and did not influence surface temperature significantly. (6) Stratospheric ozone was most affected by the difference between present day and preindustrial atmospheric composition and chemistry, with increases in the upper and lower stratosphere during the Maunder Minimum. While the estimated UV reduction led to ozone decreases, this was generally less important than the anthropogenic effect except in the upper middle stratosphere, as judged by two different ozone photochemistry schemes. (7) The effect of the reduced solar irradiance on stratospheric ozone and on climate was similar in Maunder Minimum and current atmospheric conditions.
A Snapshot of the Sun Near Solar Minimum: The Whole Heliosphere Interval
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Thompson, Barbara J.; Gibson, Sarah E.; Schroeder, Peter C.; Webb, David F.; Arge, Charles N.; Bisi, Mario M.; de Toma, Giuliana; Emery, Barbara A.; Galvin, Antoinette B.; Haber, Deborah A.;
2011-01-01
We present an overview of the data and models collected for the Whole Heliosphere Interval, an international campaign to study the three-dimensional solar heliospheric planetary connected system near solar minimum. The data and models correspond to solar Carrington Rotation 2068 (20 March 16 April 2008) extending from below the solar photosphere, through interplanetary space, and down to Earth's mesosphere. Nearly 200 people participated in aspects of WHI studies, analyzing and interpreting data from nearly 100 instruments and models in order to elucidate the physics of fundamental heliophysical processes. The solar and inner heliospheric data showed structure consistent with the declining phase of the solar cycle. A closely spaced cluster of low-latitude active regions was responsible for an increased level of magnetic activity, while a highly warped current sheet dominated heliospheric structure. The geospace data revealed an unusually high level of activity, driven primarily by the periodic impingement of high-speed streams. The WHI studies traced the solar activity and structure into the heliosphere and geospace, and provided new insight into the nature of the interconnected heliophysical system near solar minimum.
The Unusual Minimum of Cycle 23: Observations and Interpretation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Martens, Petrus C.; Nandy, D.; Munoz-Jaramillo, A.
2009-05-01
The current minimum of cycle 23 is unusual in its long duration, the very low level to which Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) has fallen, and the small flux of the open polar fields. The deep minimum of TSI seems to be related to an unprecedented dearth of polar faculae, and hence to the small amount of open flux. Based upon surface flux transport models it has been suggested that the causes of these phenomena may be an unusually vigorous meridional flow, or even a deviation from Joy's law resulting in smaller Joy angles than usual for emerging flux in cycle 23. There is also the possibility of a connection with the recently inferred emergence in polar regions of bipoles that systematically defy Hale's law. Much speculation has been going on as to the consequences of this exceptional minimum: are we entering another global minimum, is this the end of the 80 year period of exceptionally high solar activity, or is this just a statistical hiccup? Dynamo simulations are underway that may help answer this question. As an aside it must be mentioned that the current minimum of TSI puts an upper limit in the TSI input for global climate simulations during the Maunder minimum, and that a possible decrease in future solar activity will result in a very small but not insignificant reduction in the pace of global warming.
Bashful ballerina: Southward shifted heliospheric current sheet
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mursula, K.; Hiltula, T.
2003-11-01
It is known since long [Rosenberg and Coleman, 1969] that one of the two sectors of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) observed at the Earth's orbit dominates at high heliographic latitudes during solar minimum times, reflecting the poloidal structure of the global solar magnetic field at these times. Here we find that while this latitudinal variation of the dominant IMF sector around the solar equator is valid for both solar hemispheres during the last four solar minima covered by direct observations, it is systematically more strongly developed in the northern heliographic hemisphere. This implies that the average heliospheric current sheet is shifted or coned southward during solar minimum times, suggesting that the temporary southward shift of the heliosheet found earlier by Ulysses observations in 1995 is a persistent pattern. This also implies that the open solar magnetic field is north-south asymmetric at these times, suggesting that the solar dynamo has an asymmetric component. Accordingly, the Sun with the heliosheet is like a bashful ballerina who is repeatedly trying to push her excessively high flaring skirt downward. However, the effective shift at 1 AU is only a few degrees, allowing the Rosenberg-Coleman rule to be valid, on an average, in both hemispheres during solar minima.
Bashful Ballerina: Southward shifted Heliospheric Current Sheet
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mursula, K.; Hiltula, T.
It is known since long (Rosenberg and Coleman, 1969) that one of the two sectors of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) observed at the Earth's orbit dominates at high heliographic latitudes during solar minimum times, reflecting the poloidal structure of the global solar magnetic field at these times. Here we find that while this latitudinal variation of the dominant IMF sector around the solar equator is valid for both solar hemispheres during the last four solar minima covered by direct observations, it is systematically more strongly developed in the northern heliographic hemisphere. This implies that the average heliospheric current sheet is shifted or coned southward during solar minimum times, suggesting that the temporary southward shift of the heliosheet found earlier by Ulysses observations in 1995 is a persistent pattern. This also implies that the open solar magnetic field is north-south asymmetric at these times, suggesting that the solar dynamo has an asymmetric component. Accordingly, the Sun with the heliosheet is like a bashful ballerina who is repeatedly trying to push her excessively high flaring skirt downward. However, the effective shift at 1 AU is only a few degrees, allowing the Rosenberg-Coleman rule to be valid, on an average, in both hemispheres during solar minima.
Analysis of Solar Spectral Irradiance Measurements from the SBUV/2-Series and the SSBUV Instruments
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cebula, Richard P.; DeLand, Matthew T.; Hilsenrath, Ernest
1997-01-01
The NOAA-9 SBEV/2 instrument has made the first regular measurements ot solar UV activity over a complete solar cycle, beginning in March 1985 and continuing as of this writing. The NOAA-9 solar irradiance data set includes the minimum between Cycles 21-22 and the current minimum at the end of Cycle 22. Although overall solar activity is low during these periods, 27-day rotational modulation is frequently present. The episode of 13-day periodicity observed during September 1994 - March 1995 shows that phenomena previously associated with high levels of solar activity can occur at any point in the solar cycle. The 205 nm irradiance and Mg II index measured by NOAA-9 showed very similar behavior during the Cycle 21-22 minimum in 1985-1986, when 27-day periodicity dominated short-term solar variations, but behaved differently in 1994-1995 during the episode of 13-day periodicity. We plan further investigations into the physical causes of this result, since it affects the extent to which the Mg II index is an accurate proxy for 205 nm irradiance variations during such episodes. The NOAA-9 Mg II data are available.
Improvement of solar-cycle prediction: Plateau of solar axial dipole moment
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Iijima, H.; Hotta, H.; Imada, S.; Kusano, K.; Shiota, D.
2017-11-01
Aims: We report the small temporal variation of the axial dipole moment near the solar minimum and its application to the solar-cycle prediction by the surface flux transport (SFT) model. Methods: We measure the axial dipole moment using the photospheric synoptic magnetogram observed by the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO), the ESA/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI), and the NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). We also use the SFT model for the interpretation and prediction of the observed axial dipole moment. Results: We find that the observed axial dipole moment becomes approximately constant during the period of several years before each cycle minimum, which we call the axial dipole moment plateau. The cross-equatorial magnetic flux transport is found to be small during the period, although a significant number of sunspots are still emerging. The results indicate that the newly emerged magnetic flux does not contribute to the build up of the axial dipole moment near the end of each cycle. This is confirmed by showing that the time variation of the observed axial dipole moment agrees well with that predicted by the SFT model without introducing new emergence of magnetic flux. These results allow us to predict the axial dipole moment at the Cycle 24/25 minimum using the SFT model without introducing new flux emergence. The predicted axial dipole moment at the Cycle 24/25 minimum is 60-80 percent of Cycle 23/24 minimum, which suggests the amplitude of Cycle 25 is even weaker than the current Cycle 24. Conclusions: The plateau of the solar axial dipole moment is an important feature for the longer-term prediction of the solar cycle based on the SFT model.
Solar Drivers of 11-yr and Long-Term Cosmic Ray Modulation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cliver, E. W.; Richardson, I. G.; Ling, A. G.
2011-01-01
In the current paradigm for the modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), diffusion is taken to be the dominant process during solar maxima while drift dominates at minima. Observations during the recent solar minimum challenge the pre-eminence of drift: at such times. In 2009, the approx.2 GV GCR intensity measured by the Newark neutron monitor increased by approx.5% relative to its maximum value two cycles earlier even though the average tilt angle in 2009 was slightly larger than that in 1986 (approx.20deg vs. approx.14deg), while solar wind B was significantly lower (approx.3.9 nT vs. approx.5.4 nT). A decomposition of the solar wind into high-speed streams, slow solar wind, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs; including postshock flows) reveals that the Sun transmits its message of changing magnetic field (diffusion coefficient) to the heliosphere primarily through CMEs at solar maximum and high-speed streams at solar minimum. Long-term reconstructions of solar wind B are in general agreement for the approx. 1900-present interval and can be used to reliably estimate GCR intensity over this period. For earlier epochs, however, a recent Be-10-based reconstruction covering the past approx. 10(exp 4) years shows nine abrupt and relatively short-lived drops of B to < or approx.= 0 nT, with the first of these corresponding to the Sporer minimum. Such dips are at variance with the recent suggestion that B has a minimum or floor value of approx.2.8 nT. A floor in solar wind B implies a ceiling in the GCR intensity (a permanent modulation of the local interstellar spectrum) at a given energy/rigidity. The 30-40% increase in the intensity of 2.5 GV electrons observed by Ulysses during the recent solar minimum raises an interesting paradox that will need to be resolved.
Mars surface radiation exposure for solar maximum conditions and 1989 solar proton events
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Simonsen, Lisa C.; Nealy, John E.
1992-01-01
The Langley heavy-ion/nucleon transport code, HZETRN, and the high-energy nucleon transport code, BRYNTRN, are used to predict the propagation of galactic cosmic rays (GCR's) and solar flare protons through the carbon dioxide atmosphere of Mars. Particle fluences and the resulting doses are estimated on the surface of Mars for GCR's during solar maximum conditions and the Aug., Sep., and Oct. 1989 solar proton events. These results extend previously calculated surface estimates for GCR's at solar minimum conditions and the Feb. 1956, Nov. 1960, and Aug. 1972 solar proton events. Surface doses are estimated with both a low-density and a high-density carbon dioxide model of the atmosphere for altitudes of 0, 4, 8, and 12 km above the surface. A solar modulation function is incorporated to estimate the GCR dose variation between solar minimum and maximum conditions over the 11-year solar cycle. By using current Mars mission scenarios, doses to the skin, eye, and blood-forming organs are predicted for short- and long-duration stay times on the Martian surface throughout the solar cycle.
Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity in the Upcoming Minimum of the Solar Activity Cycle
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Krainev, M. B.; Bazilevskaya, G. A.; Kalinin, M. S.; Svirzhevskaya, A. K.; Svirzhevskii, N. S.
2018-03-01
During the prolonged and deep minimum of solar activity between cycles 23 and 24, an unusual behavior of the heliospheric characteristics and increased intensity of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) near the Earth's orbit were observed. The maximum of the current solar cycle 24 is lower than the previous one, and the decline in solar and, therefore, heliospheric activity is expected to continue in the next cycle. In these conditions, it is important for an understanding of the process of GCR modulation in the heliosphere, as well as for applied purposes (evaluation of the radiation safety of planned space flights, etc.), to estimate quantitatively the possible GCR characteristics near the Earth in the upcoming solar minimum ( 2019-2020). Our estimation is based on the prediction of the heliospheric characteristics that are important for cosmic ray modulation, as well as on numeric calculations of GCR intensity. Additionally, we consider the distribution of the intensity and other GCR characteristics in the heliosphere and discuss the intercycle variations in the GCR characteristics that are integral for the whole heliosphere (total energy, mean energy, and charge).
Variation of Solar, Interplanetary and Geomagnetic Parameters during Solar Cycles 21-24
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Oh, Suyeon; Kim, Bogyeong
2013-06-01
The length of solar cycle 23 has been prolonged up to about 13 years. Many studies have speculated that the solar cycle 23/24 minimum will indicate the onset of a grand minimum of solar activity, such as the Maunder Minimum. We check the trends of solar (sunspot number, solar magnetic fields, total solar irradiance, solar radio flux, and frequency of solar X-ray flare), interplanetary (interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind and galactic cosmic ray intensity), and geomagnetic (Ap index) parameters (SIG parameters) during solar cycles 21-24. Most SIG parameters during the period of the solar cycle 23/24 minimum have remarkably low values. Since the 1970s, the space environment has been monitored by ground observatories and satellites. Such prevalently low values of SIG parameters have never been seen. We suggest that these unprecedented conditions of SIG parameters originate from the weakened solar magnetic fields. Meanwhile, the deep 23/24 solar cycle minimum might be the portent of a grand minimum in which the global mean temperature of the lower atmosphere is as low as in the period of Dalton or Maunder minimum.
Structure and evolution of the large scale solar and heliospheric magnetic fields. Ph.D. Thesis
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hoeksema, J. T.
1984-01-01
Structure and evolution of large scale photospheric and coronal magnetic fields in the interval 1976-1983 were studied using observations from the Stanford Solar Observatory and a potential field model. The solar wind in the heliosphere is organized into large regions in which the magnetic field has a componenet either toward or away from the sun. The model predicts the location of the current sheet separating these regions. Near solar minimum, in 1976, the current sheet lay within a few degrees of the solar equator having two extensions north and south of the equator. Soon after minimum the latitudinal extent began to increase. The sheet reached to at least 50 deg from 1978 through 1983. The complex structure near maximum occasionally included multiple current sheets. Large scale structures persist for up to two years during the entire interval. To minimize errors in determining the structure of the heliospheric field particular attention was paid to decreasing the distorting effects of rapid field evolution, finding the optimum source surface radius, determining the correction to the sun's polar field, and handling missing data. The predicted structure agrees with direct interplanetary field measurements taken near the ecliptic and with coronameter and interplanetary scintillation measurements which infer the three dimensional interplanetary magnetic structure. During most of the solar cycle the heliospheric field cannot be adequately described as a dipole.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fathy, Ibrahim
2016-07-01
This paper presents a statistical study of different types of large-scale geomagnetic pulsation (Pc3, Pc4, Pc5 and Pi2) detected simultaneously by two MAGDAS stations located at Fayum (Geo. Coordinates 29.18 N and 30.50 E) and Aswan (Geo. Coordinates 23.59 N and 32.51 E) in Egypt. The second order butter-worth band-pass filter has been used to filter and analyze the horizontal H-component of the geomagnetic field in one-second data. The data was collected during the solar minimum of the current solar cycle 24. We list the most energetic pulsations detected by the two stations instantaneously, in addition; the average amplitude of the pulsation signals was calculated.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Yamauchi, Yohei; Suess, Steven T.; Sakurai, Takashi
2002-01-01
Ulysses observations have shown that pressure balance structures (PBSs) are a common feature in high-latitude, fast solar wind near solar minimum. Previous studies of Ulysses/SWOOPS plasma data suggest these PBSs may be remnants of coronal polar plumes. Here we find support for this suggestion in an analysis of PBS magnetic structure. We used Ulysses magnetometer data and applied a minimum variance analysis to magnetic discontinuities in PBSs. We found that PBSs preferentially contain tangential discontinuities, as opposed to rotational discontinuities and to non-PBS regions in the solar wind. This suggests that PBSs contain structures like current sheets or plasmoids that may be associated with network activity at the base of plumes.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Yamauchi, Y.; Suess, Steven T.; Sakurai, T.; Whitaker, Ann F. (Technical Monitor)
2001-01-01
Ulysses observations have shown that pressure balance structures (PBSs) are a common feature in high-latitude, fast solar wind near solar minimum. Previous studies of Ulysses/SWOOPS plasma data suggest these PBSs may be remnants of coronal polar plumes. Here we find support for this suggestion in an analysis of PBS magnetic structure. We used Ulysses magnetometer data and applied a minimum variance analysis to discontinuities. We found that PBSs preferentially contain tangential discontinuities, as opposed to rotational discontinuities and to non-PBS regions in the solar wind. This suggests that PBSs contain structures like current sheets or plasmoids that may be associated with network activity at the base of plumes.
A Two Dimensional Prediction of Solar Cycle 25
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Munoz-Jaramillo, A.; Martens, P. C.
2017-12-01
To this date solar cycle most cycle predictions have focused on the forecast of solar cycle amplitude and cycle bell-curve shape. However, recent intriguing observational results suggest that all solar cycles follow the same longitudinal path regardless of their amplitude, and have a very similar decay once they reach a sufficient level of maturity. Cast in the light of our current understanding, these results suggest that the toroidal fields inside the Sun are subject to a very high turbulent diffusivity (of the order of magnitude of mixing-length estimates), and their equatorward propagation is driven by a steady meridional flow. Assuming this is the case, we will revisit the relationship between the polar fields at minimum and the amplitude of the next cycle and deliver a new generation of polar-field based predictions that include the depth of the minimum, as well as the latitude and time of the first active regions of solar cycle 25.
Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Wilson, John W.
2000-01-01
Sunspot numbers in the current solar cycle 23 were estimated by using a statistical model with the accumulating cycle sunspot data based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles from 1 to 22. Since cycle 23 has progressed and the accurate solar minimum occurrence has been defined, the statistical model is validated by comparing the previous prediction with the new measured sunspot number; the improved sunspot projection in short range of future time is made accordingly. The current cycle is expected to have a moderate level of activity. Errors of this model are shown to be self-correcting as cycle observations become available.
MODULATION OF GALACTIC COSMIC RAYS OBSERVED AT L1 IN SOLAR CYCLE 23
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Fludra, A., E-mail: Andrzej.Fludra@stfc.ac.uk
2015-01-20
We analyze a unique 15 yr record of galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) measurements made by the SOHO Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer NIS detectors, recording integrated GCR numbers with energies above 1.0 GeV between 1996 July and 2011 June. We are able to closely reproduce the main features of the SOHO/CDS GCR record using the modulation potential calculated from neutron monitor data by Usoskin et al. The GCR numbers show a clear solar cycle modulation: they decrease by 50% from the 1997 minimum to the 2000 maximum of the solar cycle, then return to the 1997 level in 2007 and continue to rise, in 2009 Decembermore » reaching a level 25% higher than in 1997. This 25% increase is in contrast with the behavior of Ulysses/KET GCR protons extrapolated to 1 AU in the ecliptic plane, showing the same level in 2008-2009 as in 1997. The GCR numbers are inversely correlated with the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. In particular, the continued increase of SOHO/CDS GCRs from 2007 until 2009 is correlated with the decrease of the minimum tilt angle from 30° in mid-2008 to 5° in late 2009. The GCR level then drops sharply from 2010 January, again consistent with a rapid increase of the tilt angle to over 35°. This shows that the extended 2008 solar minimum was different from the 1997 minimum in terms of the structure of the heliospheric current sheet.« less
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Potgieter, M. S.; Vos, E. E.; Munini, R.
The last solar minimum activity period, and the consequent minimum modulation conditions for cosmic rays, was unusual. The highest levels of Galactic protons were recorded at Earth in late 2009 in contrast to expectations. A comprehensive model was used to study the proton modulation for the period from 2006 to 2009 in order to determine what basic processes were responsible for solar modulation during this period and why it differs from proton modulation during previous solar minimum modulation periods. This established model is now applied to studying the solar modulation of electron spectra as observed for 80 MeV–30 GeV bymore » the PAMELA space detector from mid-2006 to the end of 2009. Over this period the heliospheric magnetic field had decreased significantly until the end of 2009 while the waviness of the heliospheric current sheet decreased moderately and the observed electron spectra increased by a factor of ∼1.5 at 1.0 GeV to ∼3.5 at 100 MeV. In order to reproduce the modulation evident from seven consecutive semesters, the diffusion coefficients had to increase moderately while maintaining the basic rigidity dependence. It is confirmed that the main diffusion coefficients are independent of rigidity below ∼0.5 GV, while the drift coefficient had to be reduced below this value. The 2006–2009 solar minimum epoch indeed was different than previously observed minima, at least since the beginning of the space exploration era. This period could be called “diffusion-dominated” as was also found for the modulation of protons.« less
Modulation of galactic cosmic rays in solar cycles 22-24: Analysis and physical interpretation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kalinin, M. S.; Bazilevskaya, G. A.; Krainev, M. B.; Svirzhevskaya, A. K.; Svirzhevsky, N. S.; Starodubtsev, S. A.
2017-09-01
This work represents a physical interpretation of cosmic ray modulation in the 22nd-24th solar cycles, including an interpretation of an unusual behavior of their intensity in the last minimum of the solar activity (2008-2010). In terms of the Parker modulation model, which deals with regularly measured heliospheric characteristics, it is shown that the determining factor of the increased intensity of the galactic cosmic rays in the minimum of the 24th solar cycle is an anomalous reduction of the heliospheric magnetic field strength during this time interval under the additional influence of the solar wind velocity and the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. We have used in the calculations the dependence of the diffusion tensor on the rigidity in the form K ij ∝ R 2-μ with μ = 1.2 in the sector zones of the heliospheric magnetic field and with μ = 0.8 outside the sector zones, which leads to an additional amplification of the diffusion mechanism of cosmic ray modulation. The proposed approach allows us to describe quite satisfactorily the integral intensity of protons with an energy above 0.1 GeV and the energy spectra in the minima of the 22nd-24th solar cycles at the same value of the free parameter. The determining factor of the anomalously high level of the galactic cosmic ray intensity in the minimum of the 24th solar cycle is the significant reduction of the heliospheric magnetic field strength during this time interval. The forecast of the intensity level in the minimum of the 25th solar cycle is provided.
How unprecedented a solar minimum was it?
Russell, C T; Jian, L K; Luhmann, J G
2013-05-01
The end of the last solar cycle was at least 3 years late, and to date, the new solar cycle has seen mainly weaker activity since the onset of the rising phase toward the new solar maximum. The newspapers now even report when auroras are seen in Norway. This paper is an update of our review paper written during the deepest part of the last solar minimum [1]. We update the records of solar activity and its consequent effects on the interplanetary fields and solar wind density. The arrival of solar minimum allows us to use two techniques that predict sunspot maximum from readings obtained at solar minimum. It is clear that the Sun is still behaving strangely compared to the last few solar minima even though we are well beyond the minimum phase of the cycle 23-24 transition.
A comparison of coronal and interplanetary current sheet inclinations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Behannon, K. W.; Burlaga, L. F.; Hundhausen, A. J.
1983-01-01
The HAO white light K-coronameter observations show that the inclination of the heliospheric current sheet at the base of the corona can be both large (nearly vertical with respect to the solar equator) or small during Cararington rotations 1660 - 1666 and even on a single solar rotation. Voyager 1 and 2 magnetic field observations of crossing of the heliospheric current sheet at distances from the Sun of 1.4 and 2.8 AU. Two cases are considered, one in which the corresponding coronameter data indicate a nearly vertical (north-south) current sheet and another in which a nearly horizontal, near equatorial current sheet is indicated. For the crossings of the vertical current sheet, a variance analysis based on hour averages of the magnetic field data gave a minimum variance direction consistent with a steep inclination. The horizontal current sheet was observed by Voyager as a region of mixed polarity and low speeds lasting several days, consistent with multiple crossings of a horizontal but irregular and fluctuating current sheet at 1.4 AU. However, variance analysis of individual current sheet crossings in this interval using 1.92 see averages did not give minimum variance directions consistent with a horizontal current sheet.
Elemental GCR Observations during the 2009-2010 Solar Minimum Period
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lave, K. A.; Israel, M. H.; Binns, W. R.; Christian, E. R.; Cummings, A. C.; Davis, A. J.; deNolfo, G. A.; Leske, R. A.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Stone, E. C.;
2013-01-01
Using observations from the Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer (CRIS) onboard the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), we present new measurements of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) elemental composition and energy spectra for the species B through Ni in the energy range approx. 50-550 MeV/nucleon during the record setting 2009-2010 solar minimum period. These data are compared with our observations from the 1997-1998 solar minimum period, when solar modulation in the heliosphere was somewhat higher. For these species, we find that the intensities during the 2009-2010 solar minimum were approx. 20% higher than those in the previous solar minimum, and in fact were the highest GCR intensities recorded during the space age. Relative abundances for these species during the two solar minimum periods differed by small but statistically significant amounts, which are attributed to the combination of spectral shape differences between primary and secondary GCRs in the interstellar medium and differences between the levels of solar modulation in the two solar minima. We also present the secondary-to-primary ratios B/C and (Sc+Ti+V)/Fe for both solar minimum periods, and demonstrate that these ratios are reasonably well fit by a simple "leaky-box" galactic transport model that is combined with a spherically symmetric solar modulation model.
High-latitude spacecraft charging in low-Earth polar orbit
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Frooninckx, Thomas B.
Spacecraft charging within the upper ionosphere is commonly thought to be insignificant and thus has received little attention. Recent experimental evidence has shown that electric potential differences as severe as 680 volts can develop between Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) polar-orbiting (840 kilometers) spacecraft and their high-latitude environment. To explore space vehicle charging in this region more fully, an analysis was performed using DMSP F6, F7, F8, and F9 satellite precipitating particle and ambient plasma measurements taken during the winters of 1986-87 (solar minimum) and 1989-90 (solar maximum). An extreme solar cycle dependence was discovered as charging occurred more frequently and with greater severity during the period of solar minimum. One hundred seventy charging events ranging from -46 to 1,430 volts were identified, and satellite measurements and Time Dependent Ionospheric Model (TDIM) output were used to characterize the environments which generated and inhibited these potentials. All current sources were considered to determine the cause of the solar cycle dependence.
The magnetic field of the earth - Performance considerations for space-based observing systems
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Webster, W. J., Jr.; Taylor, P. T.; Schnetzler, C. C.; Langel, R. A.
1985-01-01
Basic problems inherent in carrying out observations of the earth magnetic field from space are reviewed. It is shown that while useful observations of the core and crustal fields are possible at the peak of the solar cycle, the greatest useful data volume is obtained during solar minimum. During the last three solar cycles, the proportion of data with a planetary disturbance index of less than 2 at solar maximum was in the range 0.4-0.8 in comparison with solar minimum. It is found that current state of the art orbit determination techniques should eliminate orbit error as a problem in gravitational field measurements from space. The spatial resolution obtained for crustal field anomalies during the major satellite observation programs of the last 30 years are compared in a table. The relationship between observing altitude and the spatial resolution of magnetic field structures is discussed. Reference is made to data obtained using the Magsat, the Polar Orbiting Geophysical Observatory (POGO), and instruments on board the Space Shuttle.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Zhao, L.; Landi, E.; Gibson, S. E., E-mail: lzh@umich.edu
2013-08-20
Since the unusually prolonged and weak solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 (2008-2010), the sunspot number is smaller and the overall morphology of the Sun's magnetic field is more complicated (i.e., less of a dipole component and more of a tilted current sheet) compared with the same minimum and ascending phases of the previous cycle. Nearly 13 yr after the last solar maximum ({approx}2000), the monthly sunspot number is currently only at half the highest value of the past cycle's maximum, whereas the polar magnetic field of the Sun is reversing (north pole first). These circumstances make itmore » timely to consider alternatives to the sunspot number for tracking the Sun's magnetic cycle and measuring its complexity. In this study, we introduce two novel parameters, the standard deviation (SD) of the latitude of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) and the integrated slope (SL) of the HCS, to evaluate the complexity of the Sun's magnetic field and track the solar cycle. SD and SL are obtained from the magnetic synoptic maps calculated by a potential field source surface model. We find that SD and SL are sensitive to the complexity of the HCS: (1) they have low values when the HCS is flat at solar minimum, and high values when the HCS is highly tilted at solar maximum; (2) they respond to the topology of the HCS differently, as a higher SD value indicates that a larger part of the HCS extends to higher latitude, while a higher SL value implies that the HCS is wavier; (3) they are good indicators of magnetically anomalous cycles. Based on the comparison between SD and SL with the normalized sunspot number in the most recent four solar cycles, we find that in 2011 the solar magnetic field had attained a similar complexity as compared to the previous maxima. In addition, in the ascending phase of cycle 24, SD and SL in the northern hemisphere were on the average much greater than in the southern hemisphere, indicating a more tilted and wavier HCS in the north than the south, associated with the early reversal of the polar magnetic field in the north relative to the south.« less
Using the Solar Polar Magnetic Field for Longterm Predictions of Solar Activity, Solar Cycles 21-25
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pesnell, W. D.; Schatten, K. H.
2017-12-01
We briefly review the dynamo and geomagnetic precursor methods of long-term solar activity forecasting. These methods depend upon the most basic aspect of dynamo theory to predict future activity, future magnetic field arises directly from the amplification of pre-existing magnetic field. We then generalize the dynamo technique, allowing the method to be used at any phase of the solar cycle, to the Solar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) index. This index is sensitive to the magnetic flux trapped within the Sun's convection zone but insensitive to the phase of the solar cycle. Since magnetic fields inside the Sun can become buoyant, one may think of the acronym SODA as describing the amount of buoyant flux. We will show how effective the SODA Index has been in predicting Solar Cycles 23 and 24, and present a unified picture of earlier estimates of the polar magnetic configuration in Solar Cycle 21 and 22. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle's smoothed peak activity will be about 125 ± 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a sunspot number of 70 ± 25. This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. Since the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve when the upcoming solar minimum is reached.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Haisch, B. M.; Bruner, M. E.; Hagyard, M. J.; Bonnet, R. M.
1986-01-01
This paper presents an extensive set of coordinated observations of a solar active region, taking into account spectroheliograms obtained with the aid of the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) Ultraviolet Spectrometer Polarimeter (UVSP) instrument, SMM soft X-ray polychromator (XRP) raster maps, and high spatial resolution ultraviolet images of the sun in Lyman-alpha and in the 1600 A continuum. These data span together the upper solar atmosphere from the temperature minimum to the corona. The data are compared to maps of the inferred photospheric electric current derived from the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) vector magnetograph observations. Some empirical correlation is found between regions of inferred electric current density and the brightest features in the ultraviolet continuum and to a lesser extent those seen in Lyman-alpha within an active region.
PROBABILITY OF CME IMPACT ON EXOPLANETS ORBITING M DWARFS AND SOLAR-LIKE STARS
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Kay, C.; Opher, M.; Kornbleuth, M., E-mail: ckay@bu.edu
2016-08-01
Solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) produce adverse space weather effects at Earth. Planets in the close habitable zone of magnetically active M dwarfs may experience more extreme space weather than at Earth, including frequent CME impacts leading to atmospheric erosion and leaving the surface exposed to extreme flare activity. Similar erosion may occur for hot Jupiters with close orbits around solar-like stars. We have developed a model, Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory (ForeCAT), which predicts a CME's deflection. We adapt ForeCAT to simulate CME deflections for the mid-type M dwarf V374 Peg and hot Jupiters with solar-type hosts. V374 Peg'smore » strong magnetic fields can trap CMEs at the M dwarfs's Astrospheric Current Sheet, that is, the location of the minimum in the background magnetic field. Solar-type CMEs behave similarly, but have much smaller deflections and do not become trapped at the Astrospheric Current Sheet. The probability of planetary impact decreases with increasing inclination of the planetary orbit with respect to the Astrospheric Current Sheet: 0.5–5 CME impacts per day for M dwarf exoplanets, 0.05–0.5 CME impacts per day for solar-type hot Jupiters. We determine the minimum planetary magnetic field necessary to shield a planet's atmosphere from CME impacts. M dwarf exoplanets require values between tens and hundreds of Gauss. Hot Jupiters around a solar-type star, however, require a more reasonable <30 G. These values exceed the magnitude required to shield a planet from the stellar wind, suggesting that CMEs may be the key driver of atmospheric losses.« less
Temporal variations in the position of the heliospheric equator
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Obridko, V. N.; Shelting, B. D.
2008-08-01
It is shown that the centroid of the heliospheric equator undergoes quasi-periodic oscillations. During the minimum of the 11-year cycle, the centroid shifts southwards (the so-called bashful-ballerina effect). The direction of the shift reverses during the solar maximum. The solar quadrupole is responsible for this effect. The shift is compared with the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Guo, X.; Florinski, V.
We present a new model that couples galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) propagation with magnetic turbulence transport and the MHD background evolution in the heliosphere. The model is applied to the problem of the formation of corotating interaction regions (CIRs) during the last solar minimum from the period between 2007 and 2009. The numerical model simultaneously calculates the large-scale supersonic solar wind properties and its small-scale turbulent content from 0.3 au to the termination shock. Cosmic rays are then transported through the background, and thus computed, with diffusion coefficients derived from the solar wind turbulent properties, using a stochastic Parker approach. Ourmore » results demonstrate that GCR variations depend on the ratio of diffusion coefficients in the fast and slow solar winds. Stream interfaces inside the CIRs always lead to depressions of the GCR intensity. On the other hand, heliospheric current sheet (HCS) crossings do not appreciably affect GCR intensities in the model, which is consistent with the two observations under quiet solar wind conditions. Therefore, variations in diffusion coefficients associated with CIR stream interfaces are more important for GCR propagation than the drift effects of the HCS during a negative solar minimum.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Leske, R. A.; Cummings, A. C.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Cohen, C.; Stone, E. C.; Wiedenbeck, M. E.
2017-12-01
Anomalous cosmic ray (ACR) intensities at 1 AU generally track galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensities, but with differences between solar polarity cycles: at high rigidities, GCRs reach higher peak intensities during A<0 cycles, while ACRs have been higher at A>0 solar minima. At present, during the approach to an A>0 solar minimum, ACR oxygen above 8 MeV/nucleon as measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) has already reached the peak intensities seen during the 2009 A<0 solar minimum, but is still 40% below the levels seen in 1997 during the last A>0 minimum. The GCR iron intensity at 300 MeV/nucleon, on the other hand, is presently comparable to that in 1997 but remains 10% below its record-setting 2009 value. Drift effects play an important role in the modulation of both ACRs and GCRs. Positively charged ions drift inward along the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) during A<0 cycles and their intensities are thus sensitive to the HCS tilt angle, which remained high for much of the last solar cycle. We have previously shown that both ACR and GCR intensities were significantly higher for a given HCS tilt angle during the 2000-2012 A<0 cycle than they were during the prior (1980-1990) A<0 cycle, and this trend appears to be continuing into the new A>0 cycle. But while GCR intensities in 2009 reached the highest levels recorded during the last 50 years, ACR intensities were only similar to those in the 1980s A<0 minimum. Factors such as a weaker interplanetary magnetic field, perhaps with a reduction in the ACR source strength or greater sensitivity of ACRs than GCRs to the HCS tilt angle, may account for the difference in their modulation behavior.We present 20 years of ACR and GCR intensity data acquired by ACE throughout two solar cycles, with emphasis on recent observations, and discuss possible reasons for the differences in the relative behavior of ACRs and GCRs in the different solar cycles.
Solar Cycle 24 and the Solar Dynamo
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Pesnell, W. D.; Schatten, K.
2007-01-01
We will discuss the polar field precursor method for solar activity prediction, which predicts cycle 24 will be significantly lower than recent activity cycles, and some new ideas rejuvenating Babcock's shallow surface dynamo. The polar field precursor method is based on Babcock and Leighton's dynamo models wherein the polar field at solar minimum plays a major role in generating the next cycle's toroidal field and sunspots. Thus, by examining the polar fields of the Sun near solar minimum, a forecast for the next cycle's activity is obtained. With the current low value for the Sun's polar fields, this method predicts solar cycle 24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 135 plus or minus 35 (2 sigma), in the 2012-2013 timeframe (equivalent to smoothed Rz near 80 plus or minus 35 [2 sigma]). One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. We discuss unusual behavior in the Sun's polar fields that support this prediction. Normally, the solar precursor method is consistent with the geomagnetic precursor method, wherein geomagnetic variations are thought to be a good measure of the Sun's polar field strength. Because of the unusual polar field, the Earth does not appear to be currently bathed in the Sun's extended polar field (the interplanetary field), hence negating the primal cause behind the geomagnetic precursor technique. We also discuss how percolation may support Babcock's original shallow solar dynamo. In this process ephemeral regions from the solar magnetic carpet, guided by shallow surface fields, may collect to form pores and sunspots.
Changes in the relationship NAO-Northern Hemisphere Temperature due to solar activity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
de La Torre, L.; Gimeno, L.; Añel, J. A.; Nieto, R.; Tesouro, M.; Ribera, P.; García, R.; Hernández, E.
2003-04-01
The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on wintertime Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) is investigated. To check the hypothesis that the solar cycle is modulating this relationship, the sample was divided into two groups, one included the years corresponding to the three consecutive lowest values of sunspots number for every 11-years cycle (43 years) and the other the ones corresponding to the three consecutive highest numbers (39 years) for every 11-years cycle. If the data of each year were independent, the correlation coefficients between NAO index and NHT for 43 (39) years would be 0.30 (0.32) at 95% confidence level. Correlation index corresponding to the solar minimum phases was -0.17 and to the solar maximum phases was 0.35. The second result is statistically significant and indicates that there are periods when a positive phase of the NAO is related to positive anomalies of NHT- result that supports our current idea of the influence of the NAO on temperature- but there are other periods when NAO and NHT are not correlated. So, results suggest that this relationship has different sign according to the phase of the solar cycle. For solar maximum phases NAO and NHT are positively correlated -result assumed up to the moment- but for solar minimum phases correlations are not significant or even negative. This result is in agreement with the different extension of the NAO for solar cycle phases [1] - almost hemispheric for maximum phases and confined to the eastern Atlantic for minimum phases-.
Modeling the heliospheric current sheet: Solar cycle variations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Riley, Pete; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z.
2002-07-01
In this report we employ an empirically driven, three-dimensional MHD model to explore the evolution of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) during the course of the solar cycle. We compare our results with a simpler ``constant-speed'' approach for mapping the HCS outward into the solar wind to demonstrate that dynamic effects can substantially deform the HCS in the inner heliosphere (<~5 AU). We find that these deformations are most pronounced at solar minimum and become less significant at solar maximum, when interaction regions are less effective. Although solar maximum is typically associated with transient, rather than corotating, processes, we show that even under such conditions, the HCS can maintain its structure over the course of several solar rotations. While the HCS may almost always be topologically equivalent to a ``ballerina skirt,'' we discuss an interval approaching the maximum of solar cycle 23 (Carrington rotations 1960 and 1961) when the shape would be better described as ``conch shell''-like. We use Ulysses magnetic field measurements to support the model results.
Sunspot variation and selected associated phenomena: A look at solar cycle 21 and beyond
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wilson, R. M.
1982-01-01
Solar sunspot cycles 8 through 21 are reviewed. Mean time intervals are calculated for maximum to maximum, minimum to minimum, minimum to maximum, and maximum to minimum phases for cycles 8 through 20 and 8 through 21. Simple cosine functions with a period of 132 years are compared to, and found to be representative of, the variation of smoothed sunspot numbers at solar maximum and minimum. A comparison of cycles 20 and 21 is given, leading to a projection for activity levels during the Spacelab 2 era (tentatively, November 1984). A prediction is made for cycle 22. Major flares are observed to peak several months subsequent to the solar maximum during cycle 21 and to be at minimum level several months after the solar minimum. Additional remarks are given for flares, gradual rise and fall radio events and 2800 MHz radio emission. Certain solar activity parameters, especially as they relate to the near term Spacelab 2 time frame are estimated.
An early solar dynamo prediction: Cycle 23 is approximately cycle 22
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Schatten, Kenneth H.; Pesnell, W. Dean
1993-01-01
In this paper, we briefly review the 'dynamo' and 'geomagnetic precursor' methods of long-term solar activity forecasting. These methods depend upon the most basic aspect of dynamo theory to predict future activity, future magnetic field arises directly from the magnification of pre-existing magnetic field. We then generalize the dynamo technique, allowing the method to be used at any phase of the solar cycle, through the development of the 'Solar Dynamo Amplitude' (SODA) index. This index is sensitive to the magnetic flux trapped within the Sun's convection zone but insensitive to the phase of the solar cycle. Since magnetic fields inside the Sun can become buoyant, one may think of the acronym SODA as describing the amount of buoyant flux. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle's smoothed peak activity will be about 210 +/- 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a sunspot number of 170 +/- 25. This suggests that solar cycle #23 will be large, comparable to cycle #22. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 1999.7 +/- 1 year. Since the current approach is novel (using data prior to solar minimum), these estimates may improve when the upcoming solar minimum is reached.
LASCO White-Light Observations of Eruptive Current Sheets Trailing CMEs
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Webb, David F.; Vourlidas, Angelos
2016-12-01
Many models of eruptive flares or coronal mass ejections (CMEs) involve formation of a current sheet connecting the ejecting CME flux rope with a magnetic loop arcade. However, there is very limited observational information on the properties and evolution of these structures, hindering progress in understanding eruptive activity from the Sun. In white-light images, narrow coaxial rays trailing the outward-moving CME have been interpreted as current sheets. Here, we undertake the most comprehensive statistical study of CME-rays to date. We use SOHO/LASCO data, which have a higher cadence, larger field of view, and better sensitivity than any previous coronagraph. We compare our results to a previous study of Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) CMEs, in 1984 - 1989, having candidate magnetic disconnection features at the CME base, about half of which were followed by coaxial bright rays. We examine all LASCO CMEs during two periods of minimum and maximum activity in Solar Cycle 23, resulting in many more events, ˜130 CME-rays, than during SMM. Important results include: The occurrence rate of the rays is ˜11 % of all CMEs during solar minimum, but decreases to ˜7 % at solar maximum; this is most likely related to the more complex coronal background. The rays appear on average 3 - 4 hours after the CME core, and are typically visible for three-fourths of a day. The mean observed current sheet length over the ray lifetime is ˜12 R_{⊙}, with the longest current sheet of 18.5 R_{⊙}. The mean CS growth rates are 188 km s^{-1} at minimum and 324 km s^{-1} at maximum. Outward-moving blobs within several rays, which are indicative of reconnection outflows, have average velocities of ˜350 km s^{-1} with small positive accelerations. A pre-existing streamer is blown out in most of the CME-ray events, but half of these are observed to reform within ˜1 day. The long lifetime and long lengths of the CME-rays challenge our current understanding of the evolution of the magnetic field in the aftermath of CMEs.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Haisch, B.M.; Bruner, M.E.; Hagyard, M.J.
This paper presents an extensive set of coordinated observations of a solar active region, taking into account spectroheliograms obtained with the aid of the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) Ultraviolet Spectrometer Polarimeter (UVSP) instrument, SMM soft x-ray polychromator (XRP) raster maps, and high spatial resolution ultraviolet images of the sun in Lyman-alpha and in the 1600 A continuum. These data span together the upper solar atmosphere from the temperature minimum to the corona. The data are compared to maps of the inferred photospheric electric current derived from the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) vector magnetograph observations. Some empirical correlation is foundmore » between regions of inferred electric current density and the brightest features in the ultraviolet continuum and to a lesser extent those seen in Lyman-alpha within an active region. 29 references.« less
A solar cycle dependence of nonlinearity in magnetospheric activity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Johnson, Jay R.; Wing, Simon
2005-04-01
The nonlinear dependencies inherent to the historical Kp data stream (1932-2003) are examined using mutual information and cumulant-based cost as discriminating statistics. The discriminating statistics are compared with surrogate data streams that are constructed using the corrected amplitude adjustment Fourier transform (CAAFT) method and capture the linear properties of the original Kp data. Differences are regularly seen in the discriminating statistics a few years prior to solar minima, while no differences are apparent at the time of solar maxima. These results suggest that the dynamics of the magnetosphere tend to be more linear at solar maximum than at solar minimum. The strong nonlinear dependencies tend to peak on a timescale around 40-50 hours and are statistically significant up to 1 week. Because the solar wind driver variables, VBs, and dynamical pressure exhibit a much shorter decorrelation time for nonlinearities, the results seem to indicate that the nonlinearity is related to internal magnetospheric dynamics. Moreover, the timescales for the nonlinearity seem to be on the same order as that for storm/ring current relaxation. We suggest that the strong solar wind driving that occurs around solar maximum dominates the magnetospheric dynamics, suppressing the internal magnetospheric nonlinearity. On the other hand, in the descending phase of the solar cycle just prior to solar minimum, when magnetospheric activity is weaker, the dynamics exhibit a significant nonlinear internal magnetospheric response that may be related to increased solar wind speed.
2015-12-15
from the ground to space solar minimum and solar maximum 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER BAA-76-11-01 5b. GRANT NUMBER N00173-12-1G010 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT...atmospheric behavior from the ground to space under solar minimum and solar maximum conditions (Contract No.: N00173-12-1-G010 NRL) Project Summary...Dynamical response to solar radiative forcing is a crucial and poorly understood mechanisms. We propose to study the impacts of large dynamical events
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Metcalf, Thomas R.
1994-01-01
I present a robust algorithm that resolves the 180-deg ambiguity in measurements of the solar vector magnetic field. The technique simultaneously minimizes both the divergence of the magnetic field and the electric current density using a simulated annealing algorithm. This results in the field orientation with approximately minimum free energy. The technique is well-founded physically and is simple to implement.
Minimum and start of the eleven-year solar cycle, Earth's ionosphere and radioamateurs
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Janda, F. K.
2010-12-01
During the last long and deep minimum of solar activity, particularly in the years 2008 and 2009, we could read a whole bunch of unfulfilled predictions, and inaccurate and confusing messages whose authors were apparently surprised , or at least showed up a surprised face. Usually, their common feature was focusing on only a small number of solar activity parameters, often neglecting results of historical observations. Recall "It has all been here already, and yet it will all happen again" (Wieslaw Brudzinski). At the same time, we have, so to say, "at our hands" a medium which simultaneously responds in a flexible and accurate way to most manifestations of the solar activity and which can be traced with just a radio receiver - and, of course, somewhat trained ear, for example of an amateur radio operator. Ionospheric probes are, however, much better for our purposes, and things that can be done with their current generation only very recently belonged to the world of dreams.
Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity: On Grand Minima in Solar Activity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mcintosh, Scott; Leamon, Robert
2015-07-01
The Sun provides the energy necessary to sustain our existence. While the Sun provides for us, it is also capable of taking away. The weather and climatic scales of solar evolution and the Sun-Earth connection are not well understood. There has been tremendous progress in the century since the discovery of solar magnetism - magnetism that ultimately drives the electromagnetic, particulate and eruptive forcing of our planetary system. There is contemporary evidence of a decrease in solar magnetism, perhaps even indicators of a significant downward trend, over recent decades. Are we entering a minimum in solar activity that is deeper and longer than a typical solar minimum, a "grand minimum"? How could we tell if we are? What is a grand minimum and how does the Sun recover? These are very pertinent questions for modern civilization. In this paper we present a hypothetical demonstration of entry and exit from grand minimum conditions based on a recent analysis of solar features over the past 20 years and their possible connection to the origins of the 11(-ish) year solar activity cycle.
Long dance of the bashful ballerina
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hiltula, T.; Mursula, K.
2006-02-01
In this letter we extend our earlier analysis of the north-south asymmetry of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) using a recent data set of heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) sector polarities extracted from ground-based magnetic observations. We find that the heliospheric current sheet is similarly southward coned or shifted during the late declining to minimum phase of the solar cycle in the early part of the studied data interval (1926-1955), as earlier found for the more recent solar cycles. Accordingly, the HCS has been southward shifted; that is, the solar ballerina has been bashful at least during the last 80 years. We also discuss solar cycle 19 which presents a period of a very curious behaviour for the HCS with an exceptionally large HMF toward sector dominance in 1957, the year of cycle 19 maximum, and an equally strong HMF away sector dominance in 1960, the time of final solar polarity reversal.
SOLAR CYCLE 25: ANOTHER MODERATE CYCLE?
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Cameron, R. H.; Schüssler, M.; Jiang, J., E-mail: cameron@mps.mpg.de
2016-06-01
Surface flux transport simulations for the descending phase of Cycle 24 using random sources (emerging bipolar magnetic regions) with empirically determined scatter of their properties provide a prediction of the axial dipole moment during the upcoming activity minimum together with a realistic uncertainty range. The expectation value for the dipole moment around 2020 (2.5 ± 1.1 G) is comparable to that observed at the end of Cycle 23 (about 2 G). The empirical correlation between the dipole moment during solar minimum and the strength of the subsequent cycle thus suggests that Cycle 25 will be of moderate amplitude, not muchmore » higher than that of the current cycle. However, the intrinsic uncertainty of such predictions resulting from the random scatter of the source properties is considerable and fundamentally limits the reliability with which such predictions can be made before activity minimum is reached.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhao, L.; Zhang, H.
2014-12-01
Anomalous cosmic rays (ACRs) carry crucial information on the coupling between solar wind and interstellar medium, as well as cosmic ray modulation within the heliosphere. Due to the distinct origins and modulation processes, the spectra and abundance of ACRs are significantly different from that of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). Since the launch of NASA's ACE spacecraft in 1997, its CRIS and SIS instruments have continuously recorded GCR and ACR intensities of several elemental heavy-ions, spanning the whole cycle 23 and the cycle 24 maximum. Here we present a statistical comparison of ACR and GCR observed by ACE spacecraft and their possible relation to solar activity. While the differential flux of ACR also exhibits apparent anti-correlation with solar activity level, the flux of the latest prolonged solar minimum (year 2009) is approximately 5% lower than its previous solar minimum (year 1997). And the minimal level of ACR flux appears in year 2004, instead of year 2001 with the strongest solar activities. The negative indexes of the power law spectra within the energy range from 5 to 30 MeV/nuc also vary with time. The spectra get harder during the solar minimum but softer during the solar maximum. The approaching solar minimum of cycle 24 is believed to resemble the Dalton or Gleissberg Minimum with extremely low solar activity (Zolotova and Ponyavin, 2014). Therefore, the different characteristics of ACRs between the coming solar minimum and the previous minimum are also of great interest. Finally, we will also discuss the possible solar-modulation processes which is responsible for different modulation of ACR and GCR, especially the roles played by diffusion and drifts. The comparative analysis will provide valuable insights into the physical modulation process within the heliosphere under opposite solar polarity and variable solar activity levels.
A Synthesis of Solar Cycle Prediction Techniques
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M.; Reichmann, Edwin J.
1999-01-01
A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month-by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides a more accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This combined precursor method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154 plus or minus 21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent on the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude is used to describe the level of solar activity month by month for the next cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146 plus or minus 20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum.
A Possible Cause of the Diminished Solar Wind During the Solar Cycle 23 - 24 Minimum
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liou, Kan; Wu, Chin-Chun
2016-12-01
Interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind plasma density observed at 1 AU during Solar Cycle 23 - 24 (SC-23/24) minimum were significantly smaller than those during its previous solar cycle (SC-22/23) minimum. Because the Earth's orbit is embedded in the slow wind during solar minimum, changes in the geometry and/or content of the slow wind region (SWR) can have a direct influence on the solar wind parameters near the Earth. In this study, we analyze solar wind plasma and magnetic field data of hourly values acquired by Ulysses. It is found that the solar wind, when averaging over the first (1995.6 - 1995.8) and third (2006.9 - 2008.2) Ulysses' perihelion ({˜} 1.4 AU) crossings, was about the same speed, but significantly less dense ({˜} 34 %) and cooler ({˜} 20 %), and the total magnetic field was {˜} 30 % weaker during the third compared to the first crossing. It is also found that the SWR was {˜} 50 % wider in the third ({˜} 68.5^deg; in heliographic latitude) than in the first ({˜} 44.8°) solar orbit. The observed latitudinal increase in the SWR is sufficient to explain the excessive decline in the near-Earth solar wind density during the recent solar minimum without speculating that the total solar output may have been decreasing. The observed SWR inflation is also consistent with a cooler solar wind in the SC-23/24 than in the SC-22/23 minimum. Furthermore, the ratio of the high-to-low latitude photospheric magnetic field (or equatorward magnetic pressure force), as observed by the Mountain Wilson Observatory, is smaller during the third than the first Ulysses' perihelion orbit. These findings suggest that the smaller equatorward magnetic pressure at the Sun may have led to the latitudinally-wider SRW observed by Ulysses in SC-23/24 minimum.
Energy and Mass Transport of Magnetospheric Plasmas during the November 2003 Magnetic Storm
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Fok, Mei-Chging; Moore, Thomas
2008-01-01
Intensive energy and mass transport from the solar wind across the magnetosphere boundary is a trigger of magnetic storms. The storm on 20-21 November 2003 was elicited by a high-speed solar wind and strong southward component of interplanetary magnetic field. This storm attained a minimum Dst of -422 nT. During the storm, some of the solar wind particles enter the magnetosphere and eventually become part of the ring current. At the same time, the fierce solar wind powers strong outflow of H+ and O+ from the ionosphere, as well as from the plasmasphere. We examine the contribution of plasmas from the solar wind, ionosphere and plasmasphere to the storm-time ring current. Our simulation shows, for this particular storm, ionospheric O+ and solar wind ions are the major sources of the ring current particles. The polar wind and plasmaspheric H+ have only minor impacts. In the storm main phase, the strong penetration of solar wind electric field pushes ions from the geosynchronous orbit to L shells of 2 and below. Ring current is greatly intensified during the earthward transport and produces a large magnetic depression in the surface field. When the convection subsides, the deep penetrating ions experience strong charge exchange loss, causing rapid decay of the ring current and fast initial storm recovery. Our simulation reproduces very well the storm development indicated by the Dst index.
Analysis of regression methods for solar activity forecasting
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lundquist, C. A.; Vaughan, W. W.
1979-01-01
The paper deals with the potential use of the most recent solar data to project trends in the next few years. Assuming that a mode of solar influence on weather can be identified, advantageous use of that knowledge presumably depends on estimating future solar activity. A frequently used technique for solar cycle predictions is a linear regression procedure along the lines formulated by McNish and Lincoln (1949). The paper presents a sensitivity analysis of the behavior of such regression methods relative to the following aspects: cycle minimum, time into cycle, composition of historical data base, and unnormalized vs. normalized solar cycle data. Comparative solar cycle forecasts for several past cycles are presented as to these aspects of the input data. Implications for the current cycle, No. 21, are also given.
Recent Studies of the Behavior of the Sun's White-Light Corona Over Time
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
SaintCyr, O. C.; Young, D. E.; Pesnell, W. D.; Lecinski, A.; Eddy, J.
2008-01-01
Predictions of upcoming solar cycles are often related to the nature and dynamics of the Sun's polar magnetic field and its influence on the corona. For the past 30 years we have a more-or-less continuous record of the Sun's white-light corona from groundbased and spacebased coronagraphs. Over that interval, the large scale features of the corona have varied in what we now consider a 'predictable' fashion--complex, showing multiple streamers at all latitudes during solar activity maximum; and a simple dipolar shape aligned with the rotational pole during solar minimum. Over the past three decades the white-light corona appears to be a better indicator of 'true' solar minimum than sunspot number since sunspots disappear for months (even years) at solar minimum. Since almost all predictions of the timing of the next solar maximum depend on the timing of solar minimum, the white-light corona is a potentially important observational discriminator for future predictors. In this contribution we describe recent work quantifying the large-scale appearance of the Sun's corona to correlate it with the sunspot record, especially around solar minimum. These three decades can be expanded with the HAO archive of eclipse photographs which, although sparse compared to the coronagraphic coverage, extends back to 1869. A more extensive understanding of this proxy would give researchers confidence in using the white-light corona as an indicator of solar minimum conditions.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cnossen, Ingrid; Matzka, Jürgen
2016-10-01
Magnetic measurements going back to the eighteenth century offer a unique opportunity to study multicentennial changes in the upper atmosphere. We analyzed measurements from Rome and Mannheim from May 1782 to May 1783 and measurements from Greenwich, St. Helena, Cape of Good Hope, and Singapore from May 1841 to May 1842. A comparison of the daily magnetic variations in these historical data with modern-day observations from 2010 at nearby stations (where available) showed notable differences in the amplitude and/or phase of the X and Y components. Model simulations indicated that these can be explained at least to some extent by changes in the Earth's main magnetic field. Changes in the main field strength and the northwestward movement of the magnetic equator, in particular in the region of the South Atlantic Anomaly, have caused changes in the positioning, shape, and strength of the equivalent current vortices in the ionosphere that result in the magnetic perturbations on the ground. Differences in solar activity between the historical and modern epochs, which were all near solar minima, were too small to have a notable effect on the ground magnetic perturbations. However, in regions where main magnetic field changes have been relatively small for the last 400 years, e.g., in Singapore, the effects of a long-term increase in solar activity from Maunder Minimum conditions to normal solar minimum conditions (an increase in F10.7 of 35 solar flux units) were comparable to the effects of geomagnetic main field changes.
Implications of the Deep Minimum for Slow Solar Wind Origin
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Antiochos, S. K.; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R.; Titov, V. S.; Linker, J. A.
2009-12-01
The origin of the slow solar wind has long been one of the most important problems in solar/heliospheric physics. Two observational constraints make this problem especially challenging. First, the slow wind has the composition of the closed-field corona, unlike the fast wind that originates on open field lines. Second, the slow wind has substantial angular extent, of order 30 degrees, which is much larger than the widths observed for streamer stalks or the widths expected theoretically for a dynamic heliospheric current sheet. We propose that the slow wind originates from an intricate network of narrow (possibly singular) open-field corridors that emanate from the polar coronal hole regions. Using topological arguments, we show that these corridors must be ubiquitous in the solar corona. The total solar eclipse in August 2008, near the lowest point of the Deep Minimum, affords an ideal opportunity to test this theory by using the ultra-high resolution Predictive Science's (PSI) eclipse model for the corona and wind. Analysis of the PSI eclipse model demonstrates that the extent and scales of the open-field corridors can account for both the angular width of the slow wind and its closed-field composition. We discuss the implications of our slow wind theory for the structure of the corona and heliosphere at the Deep Minimum and describe further observational and theoretical tests. This work has been supported by the NASA HTP, SR&T, and LWS programs.
A Solar Cycle Dependence of Nonlinearity in Magnetospheric Activity
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Johnson, Jay R; Wing, Simon
2005-03-08
The nonlinear dependencies inherent to the historical K(sub)p data stream (1932-2003) are examined using mutual information and cumulant based cost as discriminating statistics. The discriminating statistics are compared with surrogate data streams that are constructed using the corrected amplitude adjustment Fourier transform (CAAFT) method and capture the linear properties of the original K(sub)p data. Differences are regularly seen in the discriminating statistics a few years prior to solar minima, while no differences are apparent at the time of solar maximum. These results suggest that the dynamics of the magnetosphere tend to be more linear at solar maximum than at solarmore » minimum. The strong nonlinear dependencies tend to peak on a timescale around 40-50 hours and are statistically significant up to one week. Because the solar wind driver variables, VB(sub)s and dynamical pressure exhibit a much shorter decorrelation time for nonlinearities, the results seem to indicate that the nonlinearity is related to internal magnetospheric dynamics. Moreover, the timescales for the nonlinearity seem to be on the same order as that for storm/ring current relaxation. We suggest that the strong solar wind driving that occurs around solar maximum dominates the magnetospheric dynamics suppressing the internal magnetospheric nonlinearity. On the other hand, in the descending phase of the solar cycle just prior to solar minimum, when magnetospheric activity is weaker, the dynamics exhibit a significant nonlinear internal magnetospheric response that may be related to increased solar wind speed.« less
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Slavin, James A.; Boardsen, S. A.; Sarantos, M.; Acuna, M. H.; Anderson, B. J.; Barabash, S.; Benna, M.; Fraenz, M.; Gloeckler, G.; Gold, R. E.;
2008-01-01
At 23:08 UT on 5 June 2007 the MESSENGER spacecraft reached its closest approach altitude (338 km) during its second flyby of Venus en route to its 2011 orbit insertion at Mercury. Whereas no measurements were collected during MESSENGER'S first Venus flyby in October 2006, the Magnetometer (MAG) and the Energetic Particle and Plasma Spectrometer (EPPS) operated successfully throughout this second encounter. Venus provides the solar system's best example to date of a solar wind - ionosphere planetary interaction. We present MESSENGER observations of the near-tail of Venus with emphasis on determining the time scales for magnetic flux transport, the structure of the cross-tail current sheet at very low altitudes (approx. 300 to 1000 km), and the nature and origin of a magnetic flux rope observed in the current sheet. The availability of the simultaneous Venus Express upstream measurements provides a unique opportunity to examine the influence of solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field conditions on this planet's solar wind interaction at solar minimum.
Electron Pitch-Angle Distribution in Pressure Balance Structures Measured by Ulysses/SWOOPS
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Yamauchi, Yohei; Suess, Steven T.; Sakurai, Takashi; Six, N. Frank (Technical Monitor)
2002-01-01
Pressure balance structures (PBSs) are a common feature in the high-latitude solar wind near solar minimum. From previous studies, PBSs are believed to be remnants of coronal plumes. Yamauchi et al [2002] investigated the magnetic structures of the PBSs, applying a minimum variance analysis to Ulysses/Magnetometer data. They found that PBSs contain structures like current sheets or plasmoids, and suggested that PBSs are associated with network activity such as magnetic reconnection in the photosphere at the base of polar plumes. We have investigated energetic electron data from Ulysses/SWOOPS to see whether bi-directional electron flow exists and we have found evidence supporting the earlier conclusions. We find that 45 ot of 53 PBSs show local bi-directional or isotopic electron flux or flux associated with current-sheet structure. Only five events show the pitch-angle distribution expected for Alfvenic fluctuations. We conclude that PBSs do contain magnetic structures such as current sheets or plasmoids that are expected as a result of network activity at the base of polar plumes.
A comparison of solar wind streams and coronal structure near solar minimum
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Nolte, J. T.; Davis, J. M.; Gerassimenko, M.; Lazarus, A. J.; Sullivan, J. D.
1977-01-01
Solar wind data from the MIT detectors on the IMP 7 and 8 satellites and the SOLRAD 11B satellite for the solar-minimum period September-December, 1976, were compared with X-ray images of the solar corona taken by rocket-borne telescopes on September 16 and November 17, 1976. There was no compelling evidence that a coronal hole was the source of any high speed stream. Thus it is possible that either coronal holes were not the sources of all recurrent high-speed solar wind streams during the declining phase of the solar cycle, as might be inferred from the Skylab period, or there was a change in the appearance of some magnetic field regions near the time of solar minimum.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Ajello, J. M.
1990-01-01
Measurements of interplanetary H I Lyman alpha over a large portion of the celestial sphere were made at the recent solar minimum by the Pioneer Venus orbiter ultraviolet spectrometer. These measurements were performed during a series of spacecraft maneuvers conducted to observe Halley's comet in early 1986. Analysis of these data using a model of the passage of interstellar wind hydrogen through the solar system shows that the rate of charge exchange with solar wind protons is 30 percent less over the solar poles than in the ecliptic. This result is in agreement with a similar experiment performed with Mariner 10 at the previous solar minimum.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Böer, Karl W.
2016-10-01
The solar cell does not use a pn-junction to separate electrons from holes, but uses an undoped CdS layer that is p-type inverted when attached to a p-type collector and collects the holes while rejecting the backflow of electrons and thereby prevents junction leakage. The operation of the solar cell is determined by the minimum entropy principle of the cell and its external circuit that determines the electrochemical potential, i.e., the Fermi-level of the base electrode to the operating (maximum power point) voltage. It leaves the Fermi level of the metal electrode of the CdS unchanged, since CdS does not participate in the photo-emf. All photoelectric actions are generated by the holes excited from the light that causes the shift of the quasi-Fermi levels in the generator and supports the diffusion current in operating conditions. It is responsible for the measured solar maximum power current. The open circuit voltage (Voc) can approach its theoretical limit of the band gap of the collector at 0 K and the cell increases the efficiency at AM1 to 21% for a thin-film CdS/CdTe that is given as an example here. However, a series resistance of the CdS forces a limitation of its thickness to preferably below 200 Å to avoid unnecessary reduction in efficiency or Voc. The operation of the CdS solar cell does not involve heated carriers. It is initiated by the field at the CdS/CdTe interface that exceeds 20 kV/cm that is sufficient to cause extraction of holes by the CdS that is inverted to become p-type. Here a strong doubly charged intrinsic donor can cause a negative differential conductivity that switches-on a high-field domain that is stabilized by the minimum entropy principle and permits an efficient transport of the holes from the CdTe to the base electrode. Experimental results of the band model of CdS/CdTe solar cells are given and show that the conduction bands are connected in the dark, where the electron current must be continuous, and the valence bands are connected with light where the hole currents are dominant and must be continuous through the junction. The major shifts of the bands in operating conditions are self-adjusting by a change in the junction dipole momentum.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Kojima, M.; Kakinuma, T.
1987-07-01
The solar cycle evolution of solar wind speed structure was studied for the years from 1973 to 1985 on a basis of interplanetary scintillation observations using a new method for mapping solar wind speed to the source surface. The major minimum-speed regions are distributed along a neutral line through the whole period of a solar cycle: when solar activity is low, they are distributed on the wavy neutral line along the solar equator; in the active phase they also tend to be distributed along the neutral line, which has a large latitudinal amplitude. The minimum-speed regions tend to be distributedmore » not only along the neutral line but also at low magnetic intensity regions and/or coronal bright regions which do not correspond to the neutral line. As the polar high-speed regions extend equatorward around the minimum phase, the latitudinal gradient of speed increases at the boundaries of the low-speed region, and the width of the low-speed region decreases. One or two years before the minimum of solar activity, two localized minimum-speed regions appear on the neutral line, and their locations are longitudinally separated by 180. copyright American Geophysical Union 1987« less
Solar Cycle and Geomagnetic Activity Variation of Topside Ionospheric Upflow as Measured by DMSP
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Coley, W. R.; Hairston, M. R.
2016-12-01
Under the proper conditions a considerable amount of plasma can escape the Earth's ionosphere into the magnetosphere. Indeed, there are indications that at least part of the time the ionosphere may be the dominant source of ions for the plasma sheet and near-Earth portion of the magnetosphere. The upward flux of thermal O+ from the lower part of the topside ionosphere actively provides plasma into intermediate altitudes where they may be given escape energy by various mechanisms. Previous work has indicated that there is considerable time variation of upwelling low energy ionospheric plasma to these intermediate altitudes during moderate to high solar activity. Here we use the SSIES thermal plasma instruments on board the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F13-F19 series of spacecraft to examine the vertical flux of thermal O+ from the deep solar minimum of 2008-2009 to the moderately active period of 2012-2015. Separately integrating the upward and downward fluxes over the high-latitude region (auroral zone and polar cap) allows the observation of the total upflow/downflow as a function of the current geomagnetic conditions, solar cycle, and solar wind conditions. In particular we investigate the incidence of high upward flux events as a function of solar wind velocity and density during the deepest solar minimum since the space age began.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Spiegl, Tobias; Langematz, Ulrike
2016-04-01
The political, technical and socio-economic developments of the next decades will determine the magnitude of 21st century climate change, since they are inextricably linked to future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. To assess the range of uncertainty that is related to these developments, it is common to assume different emission scenarios for 21st climate projections. While the uncertainties associated with the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing have been studied intensely, the contribution of natural climate drivers (particularly solar variability) to recent and future climate change are subject of intense debate. The past 1,000 years featured at least 5 excursions (lasting 60-100 years) of exceptionally low solar activity, induced by a weak magnetic field of the Sun, so called Grand Solar Minima. While the global temperature response to such a decrease in solar activity is assumed to be rather small, nonlinear mechanisms in the climate system might amplify the regional temperature signal. This hypothesis is supported by the last Grand Solar Minimum (the Maunder Minimum, 1645-1715) which coincides with the Little Ice Age, an epoch which is characterized by severe cold and hardship over Europe, North America and Asia. The long-lasting minimum of Solar Cycle 23 as well as the overall weak maximum of Cycle 24 reveal the possibility for a return to Grand Solar Minimum conditions within the next decades. The quantification of the implications of such a projected decrease in solar forcing is of ultimate importance, given the on-going public discussion of the role of carbon dioxide emissions for global warming, and the possible role a cooling due to decreasing solar activity could be ascribed to. Since there is still no clear consensus about the actual strength of the Maunder Minimum, we used 3 acknowledged solar reconstruction datasets that show significant differences in both, total solar irradiance (TSI) and spectral irradiance (SSI) to simulate a future Grand Solar Minimum under RCP6.0 conditions. The results obtained were compared to a RCP6.0 simulation that was carried out using the CCMI recommendations for a 21st century solar forcing. We used the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) chemistry-climate model that incorporates interactive ozone chemistry, a high-resolution shortwave radiation scheme, a high model top (0.01 hPa) and is coupled to a 3D ocean general circulation model. We focused on the regional responses to a future Grand Solar Minimum and interannual variability patterns (i.e. the Northern and Southern Annular Mode (NAM/SAM)).
SOLAR WIND HEAVY IONS OVER SOLAR CYCLE 23: ACE/SWICS MEASUREMENTS
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Lepri, S. T.; Landi, E.; Zurbuchen, T. H.
2013-05-01
Solar wind plasma and compositional properties reflect the physical properties of the corona and its evolution over time. Studies comparing the previous solar minimum with the most recent, unusual solar minimum indicate that significant environmental changes are occurring globally on the Sun. For example, the magnetic field decreased 30% between the last two solar minima, and the ionic charge states of O have been reported to change toward lower values in the fast wind. In this work, we systematically and comprehensively analyze the compositional changes of the solar wind during cycle 23 from 2000 to 2010 while the Sun movedmore » from solar maximum to solar minimum. We find a systematic change of C, O, Si, and Fe ionic charge states toward lower ionization distributions. We also discuss long-term changes in elemental abundances and show that there is a {approx}50% decrease of heavy ion abundances (He, C, O, Si, and Fe) relative to H as the Sun went from solar maximum to solar minimum. During this time, the relative abundances in the slow wind remain organized by their first ionization potential. We discuss these results and their implications for models of the evolution of the solar atmosphere, and for the identification of the fast and slow wind themselves.« less
The cosmic radiation in the heliosphere at successive solar minima
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Mcdonald, Frank B.; Moraal, Harm; Reinecke, J. P. L.; Lal, Nand; Mcguire, Robert E.
1992-01-01
Cosmic ray observations at 1 AU are compared for the last three solar minimum periods along with the 1977/1989 and 1987 Pioneer 10 and Voyager 1 and 2 data from the outer heliosphere. There is good agreement between the 1965 and 1987 Galactic cosmic ray H and He spectra at 1 AU. Significant and complex differences are found between the 1977/1978 and 1987 measurements of the Galactic and anomalous cosmic ray components at 1 and 15 AU. In the outer heliosphere there are negative latitudinal gradients that reach their maximum magnitude when the inclination of the outer heliosphere current sheet is at a minimum. The radial gradients decrease with heliocentric distance as about 1/r exp 0.7 and do not differ significantly at the successive solar minima. The measured radial and latitudinal gradients are used to estimate the particle transport parameters in the outer heliosphere. Using the local interstellar He spectrum of Webber et al. (1987), it is estimated that the modulation boundary is of the order of 160 AU.
Comparative Study of foF2 Measurements with IRI-2007 Model Predictions During Extended Solar Minimum
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zakharenkova, I. E.; Krankowski, A.; Bilitza, D.; Cherniak, Iu.V.; Shagimuratov, I.I.; Sieradzki, R.
2013-01-01
The unusually deep and extended solar minimum of cycle 2324 made it very difficult to predict the solar indices 1 or 2 years into the future. Most of the predictions were proven wrong by the actual observed indices. IRI gets its solar, magnetic, and ionospheric indices from an indices file that is updated twice a year. In recent years, due to the unusual solar minimum, predictions had to be corrected downward with every new indices update. In this paper we analyse how much the uncertainties in the predictability of solar activity indices affect the IRI outcome and how the IRI values calculated with predicted and observed indices compared to the actual measurements.Monthly median values of F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) derived from the ionosonde measurements at the mid-latitude ionospheric station Juliusruh were compared with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2007) model predictions. The analysis found that IRIprovides reliable results that compare well with actual measurements, when the definite (observed and adjusted) indices of solar activityare used, while IRI values based on earlier predictions of these indices noticeably overestimated the measurements during the solar minimum.One of the principal objectives of this paper is to direct attention of IRI users to update their solar activity indices files regularly.Use of an older index file can lead to serious IRI overestimations of F-region electron density during the recent extended solar minimum.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McCracken, K. G.; McDonald, F. B.; Beer, J.; Abreu, J.; Steinhilber, F.
2009-12-01
The paleo-cosmic ray records based on the radionuclides 10Be and 14 C show that the Sun has experienced twenty two extended periods of low activity (similar to, or longer than the Maunder Minimum) in the past 10,000 years, and many more periods of reduced activity for 2 or more solar cycles similar to the period 1880-1910. The 10,000 yr record shows that solar activity has exhibited three persistent periodicities that modulate the amplitude of the Hale (11/22 year) cycle. They are the Gleissberg (~85 yr); the de Vries (~208 yr); and the Hallstatt (~2200 yr) periodicities. It is possible that the Sun is entering a somewhat delayed Gleissberg repetition of the 1880-1910 period of reduced activity or a de Vries repetition of the Dalton Minimum of 1800-1820; or a combination of both. The historic record shows that the cosmic ray intensity at sunspot minimum increases substantially during periods of reduced solar activity- during the Dalton minimum it was twice the present-day sunspot minimum intensity at 2GeV/nucleon ; and 10 times greater at 100 MeV/nucleon. The Hale cycle of solar activity continued throughout the Spoerer (1420-1540) and Maunder Minima, and it appears possible that the local interstellar cosmic ray spectrum was occasionally incident on Earth. Using the cosmic ray transport equation to invert the paleo-cosmic ray record shows that the magnetic field was <1nT at Hale minima during the Spoerer Minimum and late in the Maunder Minimum. The Sun was at a minimum of the Hallstatt (2200yr) cycle of activity in the 15th century, and is now on a steadily rising plane of activity. Paleo-cosmic ray evidence suggests that there was a greater production of impulsive solar energetic particle events in the solar cycles of reduced solar activity 1880-1910. Based on these observations, three scenarios for the next several decades will be outlined- (a) a single, deep sunspot minimum followed by an active sun; (b) several cycles of reduced solar activity similar to 1880-1910; and (c) a “Grand Minimum” with one or more 11 year cycles of very low activity similar to the Dalton Minimum.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cliver, E. W.; von Steiger, R.
2017-09-01
During the last decade it has been proposed that both the Sun and the solar wind have minimum magnetic states, lowest order levels of magnetism that underlie the 11-yr cycle as well as longer-term variability. Here we review the literature on basal magnetic states at the Sun and in the heliosphere and draw a connection between the two based on the recent deep 2008-2009 minimum between cycles 23 and 24. In particular, we consider the implications of the low solar activity during the recent minimum for the origin of the slow solar wind.
Wind Observations of Anomalous Cosmic Rays from Solar Minimum to Maximum
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Reames, D. V.; McDonald, F. B.
2003-01-01
We report the first observation near Earth of the time behavior of anomalous cosmic-ray N, O, and Ne ions through the period surrounding the maximum of the solar cycle. These observations were made by the Wind spacecraft during the 1995-2002 period spanning times from solar minimum through solar maximum. Comparison of anomalous and galactic cosmic rays provides a powerful tool for the study of the physics of solar modulation throughout the solar cycle.
Mlynczak, Martin G; Hunt, Linda A; Mertens, Christopher J; Thomas Marshall, B; Russell, James M; Woods, Thomas; Earl Thompson, R; Gordley, Larry L
2014-04-16
Infrared radiative cooling of the thermosphere by carbon dioxide (CO 2 , 15 µm) and by nitric oxide (NO, 5.3 µm) has been observed for 12 years by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite. For the first time we present a record of the two most important thermospheric infrared cooling agents over a complete solar cycle. SABER has documented dramatic variability in the radiative cooling on time scales ranging from days to the 11 year solar cycle. Deep minima in global mean vertical profiles of radiative cooling are observed in 2008-2009. Current solar maximum conditions, evidenced in the rates of radiative cooling, are substantially weaker than prior maximum conditions in 2002-2003. The observed changes in thermospheric cooling correlate well with changes in solar ultraviolet irradiance and geomagnetic activity during the prior maximum conditions. NO and CO 2 combine to emit 7 × 10 18 more Joules annually at solar maximum than at solar minimum. First record of thermospheric IR cooling rates over a complete solar cycleIR cooling in current solar maximum conditions much weaker than prior maximumVariability in thermospheric IR cooling observed on scale of days to 11 years.
Scale Height variations with solar cycle in the ionosphere of Mars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sanchez-Cano, Beatriz; Lester, Mark; Witasse, Olivier; Milan, Stephen E.; Hall, Benjamin E. S.; Cartacci, Marco; Radicella, Sandro M.; Blelly, Pierre-Louis
2015-04-01
The Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionospheric Sounding (MARSIS) on board the Mars Express spacecraft has been probing the topside of the ionosphere of Mars since June 2005, covering currently almost one solar cycle. A good knowledge of the behaviour of the ionospheric variability for a whole solar period is essential since the ionosphere is strongly dependent on solar activity. Using part of this dataset, covering the years 2005 - 2012, differences in the shape of the topside electron density profiles have been observed. These variations seem to be linked to changes in the ionospheric temperature due to the solar cycle variation. In particular, Mars' ionospheric response to the extreme solar minimum between end-2007 and end-2009 followed a similar pattern to the response observed in the Earth's ionosphere, despite the large differences related to internal origin of the magnetic field between both planets. Plasma parameters such as the scale height as a function of altitude, the main peak characteristics (altitude, density), the total electron content (TEC), the temperatures, and the ionospheric thermal pressures show variations related to the solar cycle. The main changes in the topside ionosphere are detected during the period of very low solar minimum, when ionospheric cooling occurs. The effect on the scale height is analysed in detail. In contrast, a clear increase of the scale height is observed during the high solar activity period due to enhanced ionospheric heating. The scale height variation during the solar cycle has been empirically modelled. The results have been compared with other datasets such as radio-occultation and retarding potential analyser data from old missions, especially in low solar activity periods (e.g. Mariner 4, Viking 1 and 2 landers), as well as with numerical modelling.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Isavnin, A.; Vourlidas, A.; Kilpua, E. K. J.
2014-06-01
Flux ropes ejected from the Sun may change their geometrical orientation during their evolution, which directly affects their geoeffectiveness. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how solar flux ropes evolve in the heliosphere to improve our space-weather forecasting tools. We present a follow-up study of the concepts described by Isavnin, Vourlidas, and Kilpua ( Solar Phys. 284, 203, 2013). We analyze 14 coronal mass ejections (CMEs), with clear flux-rope signatures, observed during the decay of Solar Cycle 23 and rise of Solar Cycle 24. First, we estimate initial orientations of the flux ropes at the origin using extreme-ultraviolet observations of post-eruption arcades and/or eruptive prominences. Then we reconstruct multi-viewpoint coronagraph observations of the CMEs from ≈ 2 to 30 R⊙ with a three-dimensional geometric representation of a flux rope to determine their geometrical parameters. Finally, we propagate the flux ropes from ≈ 30 R⊙ to 1 AU through MHD-simulated background solar wind while using in-situ measurements at 1 AU of the associated magnetic cloud as a constraint for the propagation technique. This methodology allows us to estimate the flux-rope orientation all the way from the Sun to 1 AU. We find that while the flux-ropes' deflection occurs predominantly below 30 R⊙, a significant amount of deflection and rotation happens between 30 R⊙ and 1 AU. We compare the flux-rope orientation to the local orientation of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS). We find that slow flux ropes tend to align with the streams of slow solar wind in the inner heliosphere. During the solar-cycle minimum the slow solar-wind channel as well as the HCS usually occupy the area in the vicinity of the solar equatorial plane, which in the past led researchers to the hypothesis that flux ropes align with the HCS. Our results show that exceptions from this rule are explained by interaction with the Parker-spiraled background magnetic field, which dominates over the magnetic interaction with the HCS in the inner heliosphere at least during solar-minimum conditions.
The most intense current sheets in the high-speed solar wind near 1 AU
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Podesta, John J.
2017-03-01
Electric currents in the solar wind plasma are investigated using 92 ms fluxgate magnetometer data acquired in a high-speed stream near 1 AU. The minimum resolvable scale is roughly 0.18 s in the spacecraft frame or, using Taylor's "frozen turbulence" approximation, one proton inertial length di in the plasma frame. A new way of identifying current sheets is developed that utilizes a proxy for the current density J obtained from the derivatives of the three orthogonal components of the observed magnetic field B. The most intense currents are identified as 5σ events, where σ is the standard deviation of the current density. The observed 5σ events are characterized by an average scale size of approximately 3di along the flow direction of the solar wind, a median separation of around 50di or 100di along the flow direction of the solar wind, and a peak current density on the order of 0.5 pA/cm2. The associated current-carrying structures are consistent with current sheets; however, the planar geometry of these structures cannot be confirmed using single-point, single-spacecraft measurements. If Taylor's hypothesis continues to hold for the energetically dominant fluctuations at kinetic scales 1
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Klenzing, J. H.; Simoes, F.; Ivanov, S.; Heelis, R. A.; Bilitza, D.; Pfaff, R. F.; Rowland, D. E.
2011-01-01
During the recent solar minimum, solar activity reached the lowest levels observed during the space age. This extremely low solar activity has accompanied a number of unexpected observations in the Earth's ionosphere and thermosphere when compared to previous solar minima. Among these are the fact that the ionosphere is significantly contracted beyond expectations based on empirical models. Climatological altitude profiles of ion density and composition measurements near the magnetic dip equator are constructed from the C/NOFS satellite to characterize the shape of the top side ionosphere during the recent solar minimum and into the new solar cycle. The variation of the profiles with respect to local time, season, and solar activity are compared to the IRI-2007 model. Building on initial results reported by Heelis et al. [2009], here we describe the extent of the contracted ionosphere, which is found to persist throughout 2009. The shape of the ionosphere during 2010 is found to be consistent with observations from previous solar minima.
Topside Equatorial Ionospheric Density and Composition During and After Extreme Solar Minimum
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Klenzing, J.; Simoes, F.; Ivanov, S.; Heelis, R. A.; Bilitza, D.; Pfaff, R.; Rowland, D.
2011-01-01
During the recent solar minimum, solar activity reached the lowest levels observed during the space age. This extremely low solar activity has accompanied a number of unexpected observations in the Earth s ionosphere-thermosphere system when compared to previous solar minima. Among these are the fact that the ionosphere is significantly contracted beyond expectations based on empirical models. Altitude profiles of ion density and composition measurements near the magnetic dip equator are constructed from the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) satellite to characterize the shape of the topside ionosphere during the recent solar minimum and into the new solar cycle. The variation of the profiles with respect to local time, season, and solar activity are compared to the IRI-2007 model. Building on initial results reported by Heelis et al. (2009), here we describe the extent of the contracted ionosphere, which is found to persist throughout 2009. The shape of the ionosphere during 2010 is found to be consistent with observations from previous solar minima.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lopresto, James C.; Mathews, John; Manross, Kevin
1995-12-01
Calcium K plage, H alpha plage and sunspot area have been monitored daily on the INTERNET since November of 1992. The plage and sunspot area have been measured by image processing. The purpose of the project is to investigate the degree of correlation between plage area and solar irradiance. The plage variation shows the expected variation produced by solar rotation and the longer secular changes produced by the solar cycle. The H alpha and sunspot plage area reached a minimum in about late 1994 or early 1995. This is in agreement with the K2 spectral index obtained daily from Sacramento Peak Observatory. The Calcium K plage area minimum seems delayed with respect to the others mentioned above. The minimum of the K line plage area is projected to come within the last few months of 1995.
Solar causes of strong geomagnetic disturbances during the period 1996—2013
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hejda, Pavel; Bochníček, Josef; Valach, Fridrich; Revallo, Miloš
2017-04-01
The purpose of this research is to assess the contribution of CMEs and CIRs to geomagnetic activity during the period 1996—2013, covering the 23rd solar cycle, the solar minimum between the 23rd and the 24th solar cycles as well as the ascending part of the current 24th solar cycle. Both CMEs and CIRs are capable of driving significant space weather effects on the Earth. Current study is not primarily aimed at construction of prediction models but can contribute to this topic by answering two principal questions: (1) what is the contribution of CME and CIR type solar events to various levels of geomagnetic disturbances and how it varies during the solar cycle (2) how does the successive emergence of CME and CIR events influence the geomagnetic response. Sometimes it can be difficult to assign the response to a particular event properly, especially in the case of several successive events. We noticed that the CIRs appeared to play important role also in years when strongly geoeffective CMEs occurred. An interesting finding, which we have revealed on this subject, concerned the year 2009; then the extremely low geomagnetic activity was probably caused by very slow solar wind from coronal holes along with the rare occurrences of CIRs.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Nerney, Steven; Suess, S. T.; Schmahl, E. J.
1995-01-01
The topology of the magnetic field in the heliosheath is illustrated using plots of the field lines. It is shown that the Archimedean spiral inside the terminal shock is rotated back in the heliosheath into nested spirals that are advected in the direction of the interstellar wind. The 22-year solar magnetic cycle is imprinted onto these field lines in the form of unipolar magnetic envelopes surrounded by volumes of strongly mixed polarity. Each envelope is defined by the changing tilt of the heliospheric current sheet, which is in turn defined by the boundary of unipolar high-latitude regions on the Sun that shrink to the pole at solar maximum and expand to the equator at solar minimum. The detailed shape of the envelopes is regulated by the solar wind velocity structure in the heliosheath.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cao, X.; Du, A.
2014-12-01
We statistically studied the response time of the SYMH to the solar wind energy input ɛ by using the RFA approach. The average response time was 64 minutes. There was no clear trend among these events concerning to the minimum SYMH and storm type. It seems that the response time of magnetosphere to the solar wind energy input is independent on the storm intensity and the solar wind condition. The response function shows one peak even when the solar wind energy input and the SYMH have multi-peak. The response time exhibits as the intrinsic property of the magnetosphere that stands for the typical formation time of the ring current. This may be controlled by magnetospheric temperature, average number density, the oxygen abundance et al.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Poduval, B., E-mail: bpoduval@spacescience.org
2016-08-10
This Letter presents the results of an investigation into the controlling influence of large-scale magnetic field of the Sun in determining the solar wind outflow using two magnetostatic coronal models: current sheet source surface (CSSS) and potential field source surface. For this, we made use of the Wang and Sheeley inverse correlation between magnetic flux expansion rate (FTE) and observed solar wind speed (SWS) at 1 au. During the period of study, extended over solar cycle 23 and beginning of solar cycle 24, we found that the coefficients of the fitted quadratic equation representing the FTE–SWS inverse relation exhibited significantmore » temporal variation, implying the changing pattern of the influence of FTE on SWS over time. A particularly noteworthy feature is an anomaly in the behavior of the fitted coefficients during the extended minimum, 2008–2010 (CRs 2073–2092), which is considered due to the particularly complex nature of the solar magnetic field during this period. However, this variation was significant only for the CSSS model, though not a systematic dependence on the phase of the solar cycle. Further, we noticed that the CSSS model demonstrated better solar wind prediction during the period of study, which we attribute to the treatment of volume and sheet currents throughout the corona and the more accurate tracing of footpoint locations resulting from the geometry of the model.« less
Solar-Cycle Variability of Magnetosheath Fluctuations at Earth and Venus
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dwivedi, N. K.; Narita, Y.; Kovacs, P.
2014-12-01
The magnetosheath is a region between the bow-shock and magnetopause and the magnetosheath plasma is mostly in the turbulent state. In the present investigation we put an effort to closely examine the magnetosheath fluctuations dependency on the solar-cycles (solar-maximum and solar minimum) at the magnetized planetary body (Earth) and their comparison with the un-magnetized planetary body (Venus) for the solar minimum. We use the CLUSTER FGM data for the solar-maximum (2001-2002), solar-minimum (2006-2008) and Venus fluxgate magnetometer data for the solar-minimum (2006-2008) to perform a comparative statistical study on the energy spectra and probability density function (PDF) and asses the spectral features of the magnetic fluctuations of the both planetary bodies. In the comparison we study the relation between the inertial ranges of the spectra and the temporal scales of non-Gaussian magnetic fluctuations derived from PDF analyses. The first can refer to turbulent cascade dynamics, while the latter may indicate intermittency. We first transformed the magnetic field data into mean field aligned coordinate system with respect to the large-scale magnetic field direction and then after we compute the power spectral density with the help of Welch algorithm. The computed energy spectra of Earth's magnetosheath show a moderate variability with the solar-cycles and have a broader inertial range. However the estimated energy spectra for the solar-minimum at Venus give the clear evidence of the existence of the break point in the vicinity of the ion gyroradius. After the break-point the energy spectra become steeper and show a distinctive spectral scales which is interpreted as the realization of the begging of the energy cascade. We also briefly address the influence of turbulence on the plasma transport and wave dynamics responsible for the spectral break and predict spectral features of the energy spectra for the solar-maximum at Venus based on the results obtained for the solar-minimum. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme ([FP7/2007-2013]) under grant agreement number 313038/STORM.
Radiation Risks From A Weak Field in the Coming Years
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rahmanifard, F.; Schwadron, N.; Smith, C. W.; Joyce, C. J.; Townsend, L.
2017-12-01
Recent solar conditions, including a prolonged solar minimum (2005-2009) and the recent small solar maximum, indicate that we are entering an era of lower solar activity than observed at other times during the space age- possibly similar to the past solar grand minima. During such periods of extremely low activity, the fluxes of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) increase dramatically and limit the allowable days for human space missions. We use data from the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) to examine the correlation between the heliospheric magnetic field at 1AU and the modulation potential of the GCRs. We apply past grand solar minima conditions, including the Maunder minimum (1645-1715) and the Dalton minimum (1790-1830), to predict the modulation potential and the dose rates of the GCRs throughout the next solar cycle. The heliospheric magnetic field can drop to 4.21 (3.72) nT, leading to a modulation potential of 448.51 (235.96) MV and dose rates as high as 11.72 (16.68) cGy/yr for the case of conditions similar to the Dalton minimum (Maunder minimum). We use these results to predict the most conservative estimations of the time to 3% risk of exposure-induced death (REID) and the allowable mission durations in interplanetary space.
Solar activities and Climate change hazards
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hady, A. A., II
2014-12-01
Throughout the geological history of Earth, climate change is one of the recurrent natural hazards. In recent history, the impact of man brought about additional climatic change. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary, both solar activities and building-up of green-house gases effect added to the climatic changes. This paper discusses if the global worming caused by the green-house gases effect will be equal or less than the global cooling resulting from the solar activities. In this respect, we refer to the Modern Dalton Minimum (MDM) which stated that starting from year 2005 for the next 40 years; the earth's surface temperature will become cooler than nowadays. However the degree of cooling, previously mentioned in old Dalton Minimum (c. 210 y ago), will be minimized by building-up of green-house gases effect during MDM period. Regarding to the periodicities of solar activities, it is clear that now we have a new solar cycle of around 210 years. Keywords: Solar activities; solar cycles; palaeoclimatic changes; Global cooling; Modern Dalton Minimum.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dutta, Barsha; Kalita, Bitap Raj; Bhuyan, Pradip Kumar
2018-04-01
The characteristics of nighttime ionospheric scintillations measured at the L-band frequency of 1.575 GHz over Dibrugarh (27.5°N, 95°E, MLAT ∼ 17°N, 43° dip) during the ascending half of the solar cycle 24 from 2010 to 2014 have been investigated and the results are presented in this paper. The measurement location is within or outside the zone of influence of the equatorial ionization anomaly depending on solar and geomagnetic activity. Maximum scintillation is observed in the equinoxes irrespective of solar activity with clear asymmetry between March and September. The occurrence frequency in the solstices shifts from minimum in the June solstice in low solar activity to a minimum in the December solstice in high solar activity years. A significant positive correlation of occurrence of scintillations in the June solstice with solar activity has been observed. However, earlier reports from the Indian zone (∼75°E) indicate negative or no correlation of scintillation in June solstice with solar activity. Scintillations activity/occurrence in solstices indicates a clear positive correlation with Es recorded simultaneously by a collocated Ionosonde. In equinoxes, maximum scintillations occur in the pre-midnight hours while in solstices the occurrence frequency peaks just after sunset. The incidence of strong scintillations (S4 ≥ 0.4) increases with increase in solar activity. Strong (S4 ≥ 0.4) ionospheric scintillations accompanied by TEC depletions in the pre-midnight period is attributed to equatorial irregularities whereas the dusk period scintillations are related to the sporadic-E activity. Present results thus indicate that the current location at the northern edge of the EIA behaves as low as well as mid-latitude location.
Shuttle radiation dose measurements in the International Space Station orbits
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Badhwar, Gautam D.
2002-01-01
The International Space Station (ISS) is now a reality with the start of a permanent human presence on board. Radiation presents a serious risk to the health and safety of the astronauts, and there is a clear requirement for estimating their exposures prior to and after flights. Predictions of the dose rate at times other than solar minimum or solar maximum have not been possible, because there has been no method to calculate the trapped-particle spectrum at intermediate times. Over the last few years, a tissue-equivalent proportional counter (TEPC) has been flown at a fixed mid-deck location on board the Space Shuttle in 51.65 degrees inclination flights. These flights have provided data that cover the expected changes in the dose rates due to changes in altitude and changes in solar activity from the solar minimum to the solar maximum of the current 23rd solar cycle. Based on these data, a simple function of the solar deceleration potential has been derived that can be used to predict the galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) dose rates to within +/-10%. For altitudes to be covered by the ISS, the dose rate due to the trapped particles is found to be a power-law function, rho(-2/3), of the atmospheric density, rho. This relationship can be used to predict trapped dose rates inside these spacecraft to +/-10% throughout the solar cycle. Thus, given the shielding distribution for a location inside the Space Shuttle or inside an ISS module, this approach can be used to predict the combined GCR + trapped dose rate to better than +/-15% for quiet solar conditions.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mursula, K.; Hiltula, T.
2004-10-01
Recent studies of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) have detected interesting, systematic hemispherical and longitudinal asymmetries which have a profound significance for the understanding of solar magnetic fields. The in situ HMF measurements since the 1960s show that the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) is systematically shifted (coned) southward during solar minimum times, leading to the concept of a bashful ballerina. While temporary shifts can be considerably larger, the average HCS shift (coning) angle is a few degrees, less than the 7.2∘ tilt of the solar rotation axis. Recent solar observations during the last two solar cycles verify these results and show that the magnetic areas in the northern solar hemisphere are larger and their intensity weaker than in the south during long intervals in the late declining to minimum phase. The multipole expansion reveals a strong quadrupole term which is oppositely directed to the dipole term. These results imply that the Sun has a symmetric quadrupole S0 dynamo mode that oscillates in phase with the dominant dipole A0 mode. Moreover, the heliospheric magnetic field has a strong tendency to produce solar tilts that are roughly opposite in longitudinal phase. This implies is a systematic longitudinal asymmetry and leads to a “flip-flop” type behaviour in the dominant HMF sector whose period is about 3.2 years. This agrees very well with the similar flip-flop period found recently in sunspots, as well as with the observed ratio of three between the activity cycle period and the flip-flop period of sun-like stars. Accordingly, these results require that the solar dynamo includes three modes, A0, S0 and a non-axisymmetric mode. Obviously, these results have a great impact on solar modelling.
({The) Solar System Large Planets influence on a new Maunder Miniμm}
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yndestad, Harald; Solheim, Jan-Erik
2016-04-01
In 1890´s G. Spörer and E. W. Maunder (1890) reported that the solar activity stopped in a period of 70 years from 1645 to 1715. Later a reconstruction of the solar activity confirms the grand minima Maunder (1640-1720), Spörer (1390-1550), Wolf (1270-1340), and the minima Oort (1010-1070) and Dalton (1785-1810) since the year 1000 A.D. (Usoskin et al. 2007). These minimum periods have been associated with less irradiation from the Sun and cold climate periods on Earth. An identification of a three grand Maunder type periods and two Dalton type periods in a period thousand years, indicates that sooner or later there will be a colder climate on Earth from a new Maunder- or Dalton- type period. The cause of these minimum periods, are not well understood. An expected new Maunder-type period is based on the properties of solar variability. If the solar variability has a deterministic element, we can estimate better a new Maunder grand minimum. A random solar variability can only explain the past. This investigation is based on the simple idea that if the solar variability has a deterministic property, it must have a deterministic source, as a first cause. If this deterministic source is known, we can compute better estimates the next expected Maunder grand minimum period. The study is based on a TSI ACRIM data series from 1700, a TSI ACRIM data series from 1000 A.D., sunspot data series from 1611 and a Solar Barycenter orbit data series from 1000. The analysis method is based on a wavelet spectrum analysis, to identify stationary periods, coincidence periods and their phase relations. The result shows that the TSI variability and the sunspots variability have deterministic oscillations, controlled by the large planets Jupiter, Uranus and Neptune, as the first cause. A deterministic model of TSI variability and sunspot variability confirms the known minimum and grand minimum periods since 1000. From this deterministic model we may expect a new Maunder type sunspot minimum period from about 2018 to 2055. The deterministic model of a TSI ACRIM data series from 1700 computes a new Maunder type grand minimum period from 2015 to 2071. A model of the longer TSI ACRIM data series from 1000 computes a new Dalton to Maunder type minimum irradiation period from 2047 to 2068.
A new Method for Determining the Interplanetary Current-Sheet Local Orientation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Blanco, J. J.; Rodríguez-pacheco, J.; Sequeiros, J.
2003-03-01
In this work we have developed a new method for determining the interplanetary current sheet local parameters. The method, called `HYTARO' (from Hyperbolic Tangent Rotation), is based on a modified Harris magnetic field. This method has been applied to a pool of 57 events, all of them recorded during solar minimum conditions. The model performance has been tested by comparing both, its outputs and noise response, with these of the `classic MVM' (from Minimum Variance Method). The results suggest that, despite the fact that in many cases they behave in a similar way, there are specific crossing conditions that produce an erroneous MVM response. Moreover, our method shows a lower noise level sensitivity than that of MVM.
Air solar collectors in building use - A review
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bejan, Andrei-Stelian; Labihi, Abdelouhab; Croitoru, Cristiana; Catalina, Tiberiu
2018-02-01
In the current energy and environmental context it is imperative to implement systems based on renewable energy sources in order to reduce energy consumptions worldwide. Solar collectors are studied by many years and many researchers are focusing their attention in order to increase their efficiency and cost-effectiveness. Water solar collectors are often implemented for domestic hot water, heating or industrial processes and already have a place on the market. A promising system which is not yet widely known is represented by air solar collectors that could represent an efficient way to use the solar energy with a lower investment cost, a system that can be used in order to preheat the fresh air required for heating, drying, or to maintain a minimum temperature during winter. This paper presents a comprehensive literature review on air solar collectors used mainly in buildings, acting as a solar wall. Air solar collectors are roughly classified into two types: glazed and opaque. The present study comprises the solar collector classification, applications and their main parameters with a special focus on opaque solar collectors.
Cosmic Ray Hits in the Central Nervous System at Solar Maximum
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Curtis, S. B.; Vazquez, M. E.; Wilson, J. W.; Kim, M.-H. Y.
1997-01-01
It has been suggested that a manned mission to Mars be launched at solar maximum rather than at solar minimum to minimize the radiation exposure to galactic cosmic rays. It is true that the number of hits from highly ionizing particles to critical regions in the brain will be less at solar maximum, and it is of some interest to estimate how much less. We present here calculations for several sites within the brain from iron ions (z = 26) and from particles with charge, z, greater than or equal to 15. The same shielding configurations and sites in the brain used in an earlier paper for solar minimum are employed so that direct comparison of results between the two solar activity conditions can be made. A simple pressure-vessel wall and an equipment room onboard a spacecraft are chosen as shielding examples. In the equipment room, typical results for the thalamus (100 mm2 area) are that the probability of any given cell nucleus being hit decreases from 10 percent at solar minimum to 6 percent at solar maximum for particles with z greater than or equal to 15 and from 2.3 percent to 1.3 percent for iron ions. We conclude that this modest decrease in hit frequency (less than a factor of two) is not a compelling reason to avoid solar minimum for a manned mission to Mars.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Popova, E.; Zharkova, V. V.; Shepherd, S. J.; Zharkov, S.
2016-12-01
Using the principal components of solar magnetic field variations derived from the synoptic maps for solar cycles 21-24 with Principal Components Analysis (PCA) (Zharkova et al, 2015) we confirm our previous prediction of the upcoming Maunder minimum to occur in cycles 25-27, or in 2020-2055. We also use a summary curve of the two eigen vectors of solar magnetic field oscillations (or two dynamo waves) to extrapolate solar activity backwards to the three millennia and to compare it with relevant historic and Holocene data. Extrapolation of the summary curve confirms the eight grand cycles of 350-400-years superimposed on 22 year-cycles caused by beating effect of the two dynamo waves generated in the two (deep and shallow) layers of the solar interior. The grand cycles in different periods comprise a different number of individual 22-year cycles; the longer the grand cycles the larger number of 22 year cycles and the smaller their amplitudes. We also report the super-grand cycle of about 2000 years often found in solas activity with spectral analysis. Furthermore, the summary curve reproduces a remarkable resemblance to the sunspot and terrestrial activity reported in the past: the recent Maunder Minimum (1645-1715), Dalton minimum (1790-1815), Wolf minimum (1200), Homeric minimum (800-900 BC), the Medieval Warmth Period (900-1200), the Roman Warmth Period (400-10BC) and so on. Temporal variations of these dynamo waves are modelled with the two layer mean dynamo model with meridional circulation revealing a remarkable resemblance of the butterfly diagram to the one derived for the last Maunder minimum in 17 century and predicting the one for the upcoming Maunder minimum in 2020-2055.
Sunspot Observations During the Maunder Minimum from the Correspondence of John Flamsteed
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Carrasco, V. M. S.; Vaquero, J. M.
2016-11-01
We compile and analyze the sunspot observations made by John Flamsteed for the period 1672 - 1703, which corresponds to the second part of the Maunder Minimum. They appear in the correspondence of the famous astronomer. We include in an appendix the original texts of the sunspot records kept by Flamsteed. We compute an estimate of the level of solar activity using these records, and compare the results with the latest reconstructions of solar activity during the Maunder Minimum, obtaining values characteristic of a grand solar minimum. Finally, we discuss a phenomenon observed and described by Stephen Gray in 1705 that has been interpreted as a white-light flare.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chakrabarty, D.; Bagiya, Mala S.; Thampi, Smitha V.; Pathan, B. M.; Sekar, R.
2013-12-01
The present investigation brings out, in contrast to the earlier works, the changes in the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) current in response to a few moderate (M-class) and low (C and B class) intensity solar flares during 2005-2010. Special care is taken to pick these flare events in the absence of prompt electric field perturbations associated with geomagnetic storms and substorms that also affect the electrojet current. Interestingly, only the normalized (with respect to the pre-flare level) deviations of daytime EEJ (and not the deviations alone) change linearly with the increases in the EUV and X-ray fluxes. These linear relationships break down during local morning hours when the E-region electric field approaches zero before reversal of polarity. This elicits that the response of EEJ strength corresponding to less-intense flares can be appropriately gauged only when the local time variation of the quiet time E-region zonal electric field is taken into account. The flare events enhanced the EEJ strength irrespective of normal or counter electrojet (CEJ) conditions that shows that solar flares change the E-region ionization density and not the electric field. In addition, the enhancements in the X-ray and EUV fluxes, for these flares occurring during this solar minimum period, are found to be significantly correlated as opposed to the solar maximum period, indicating the differences in the solar processes in different solar epochs.
Solar Activity Heading for a Maunder Minimum?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schatten, K. H.; Tobiska, W. K.
2003-05-01
Long-range (few years to decades) solar activity prediction techniques vary greatly in their methods. They range from examining planetary orbits, to spectral analyses (e.g. Fourier, wavelet and spectral analyses), to artificial intelligence methods, to simply using general statistical techniques. Rather than concentrate on statistical/mathematical/numerical methods, we discuss a class of methods which appears to have a "physical basis." Not only does it have a physical basis, but this basis is rooted in both "basic" physics (dynamo theory), but also solar physics (Babcock dynamo theory). The class we discuss is referred to as "precursor methods," originally developed by Ohl, Brown and Williams and others, using geomagnetic observations. My colleagues and I have developed some understanding for how these methods work and have expanded the prediction methods using "solar dynamo precursor" methods, notably a "SODA" index (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude). These methods are now based upon an understanding of the Sun's dynamo processes- to explain a connection between how the Sun's fields are generated and how the Sun broadcasts its future activity levels to Earth. This has led to better monitoring of the Sun's dynamo fields and is leading to more accurate prediction techniques. Related to the Sun's polar and toroidal magnetic fields, we explain how these methods work, past predictions, the current cycle, and predictions of future of solar activity levels for the next few solar cycles. The surprising result of these long-range predictions is a rapid decline in solar activity, starting with cycle #24. If this trend continues, we may see the Sun heading towards a "Maunder" type of solar activity minimum - an extensive period of reduced levels of solar activity. For the solar physicists, who enjoy studying solar activity, we hope this isn't so, but for NASA, which must place and maintain satellites in low earth orbit (LEO), it may help with reboost problems. Space debris, and other aspects of objects in LEO will also be affected. This research is supported by the NSF and NASA.
Quiet-Time Suprathermal ( 0.1-1.5 keV) Electrons in the Solar Wind
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, L.; Tao, J.; Zong, Q.; Li, G.; Salem, C. S.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.; He, J.; Tu, C.; Bale, S. D.
2016-12-01
We present a statistical survey of the energy spectrum of solar wind suprathermal (˜0.1-1.5 keV) electrons measured by the WIND/3DP instrument at 1 AU during quiet times at the minimum and maximum of solar cycles 23 and 24. After separating (beaming) strahl electrons from (isotropic) halo electrons according to their different behaviors in the angular distribution, we fit the observed energy spectrum of both strahl and halo electrons at ˜0.1-1.5 keV to a Kappa distribution function with an index κ and effective temperature Teff. We also calculate the number density n and average energy Eavg of strahl and halo electrons by integrating the electron measurements between ˜0.1 and 1.5 keV. We find a strong positive correlation between κ and Teff for both strahl and halo electrons, and a strong positive correlation between the strahl n and halo n, likely reflecting the nature of the generation of these suprathermal electrons. In both solar cycles, κ is larger at solar minimum than at solar maximum for both strahl and halo electrons. The halo κ is generally smaller than the strahl κ (except during the solar minimum of cycle 23). The strahl n is larger at solar maximum, but the halo n shows no difference between solar minimum and maximum. Both the strahl n and halo n have no clear association with the solar wind core population, but the density ratio between the strahl and halo roughly anti-correlates (correlates) with the solar wind density (velocity).
Quiet-time Suprathermal (~0.1-1.5 keV) Electrons in the Solar Wind
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tao, Jiawei; Wang, Linghua; Zong, Qiugang; Li, Gang; Salem, Chadi S.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, Robert F.; He, Jiansen; Tu, Chuanyi; Bale, Stuart D.
2016-03-01
We present a statistical survey of the energy spectrum of solar wind suprathermal (˜0.1-1.5 keV) electrons measured by the WIND 3DP instrument at 1 AU during quiet times at the minimum and maximum of solar cycles 23 and 24. After separating (beaming) strahl electrons from (isotropic) halo electrons according to their different behaviors in the angular distribution, we fit the observed energy spectrum of both strahl and halo electrons at ˜0.1-1.5 keV to a Kappa distribution function with an index κ and effective temperature Teff. We also calculate the number density n and average energy Eavg of strahl and halo electrons by integrating the electron measurements between ˜0.1 and 1.5 keV. We find a strong positive correlation between κ and Teff for both strahl and halo electrons, and a strong positive correlation between the strahl n and halo n, likely reflecting the nature of the generation of these suprathermal electrons. In both solar cycles, κ is larger at solar minimum than at solar maximum for both strahl and halo electrons. The halo κ is generally smaller than the strahl κ (except during the solar minimum of cycle 23). The strahl n is larger at solar maximum, but the halo n shows no difference between solar minimum and maximum. Both the strahl n and halo n have no clear association with the solar wind core population, but the density ratio between the strahl and halo roughly anti-correlates (correlates) with the solar wind density (velocity).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pustil'Nik, Lev A.; Dorman, L. I.; Yom Din, G.
2003-07-01
The database of Professor Rogers, with wheat prices in England in the Middle Ages (1249-1703) was used to search for possible manifestations of solar activity and cosmic ray variations. The main object of the statistical analysis is investigation of bursts of prices. We present a conceptual model of possible modes for sensitivity of wheat prices to weather conditions, caused by solar cycle variations in cosmic rays, and compare the expected price fluctuations with wheat price variations recorded in the Medieval England. We compared statistical properties of the intervals between price bursts with statistical properties of the intervals between extremes (minimums) of solar cycles during the years 1700-2000. Statistical properties of these two samples are similar both in averaged/median values of intervals and in standard deviation of this values. We show that histogram of intervals distribution for price bursts and solar minimums are coincidence with high confidence level. We analyzed direct links between wheat prices and solar activity in the th 17 Century, for which wheat prices and solar activity data as well as cosmic ray intensity (from 10 Be isotop e) are available. We show that for all seven solar activity minimums the observed prices were higher than prices for the nine intervals of maximal solar activity proceed preceding to the minimums. This result, combined with the conclusion on similarity of statistical properties of the price bursts and solar activity extremes we consider as direct evidence of a causal connection between wheat prices bursts and solar activity.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Schatten, K. H.; Scherrer, P. H.; Svalgaard, L.; Wilcox, J. M.
1978-01-01
On physical grounds it is suggested that the sun's polar field strength near a solar minimum is closely related to the following cycle's solar activity. Four methods of estimating the sun's polar magnetic field strength near solar minimum are employed to provide an estimate of cycle 21's yearly mean sunspot number at solar maximum of 140 plus or minus 20. This estimate is considered to be a first order attempt to predict the cycle's activity using one parameter of physical importance.
Solar activity as driver for the Dark Age Grand Solar Minimum
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Neuhäuser, Ralph; Neuhäuser, Dagmar
2017-04-01
We will discuss the role of solar activity for the temperature variability from AD 550 to 840, roughly the last three centuries of the Dark Ages. This time range includes the so-called Dark Age Grand Solar Minimum, whose deep part is dated to about AD 650 to 700, which is seen in increased radiocarbon, but decreased aurora observations (and a lack of naked-eye sunspot sightings). We present historical reports on aurorae from all human cultures with written reports including East Asia, Near East (Arabia), and Europe. To classify such reports correctly, clear criteria are needed, which are also discussed. We compare our catalog of historical aurorae (and sunspots) as well as C-14 data, i.e. solar activity proxies, with temperature reconstructions (PAGES). After increased solar activity until around AD 600, we see a dearth of aurorae and increased radiocarbon production in particular in the second half of the 7th century, i.e. a typical Grand Solar Minimum. Then, after about AD 690 (the maximum in radiocarbon, the end of the Dark Age Grand Minimum), we see increased auroral activity, decreasing radiocarbon, and increasing temperature until about AD 775. At around AD 775, we see the well-known strong C-14 variability (solar activity drop), then immediately another dearth of aurorae plus high C-14, indicating another solar activity minimum. This is consistent with a temperature depression from about AD 775 on into the beginning of the 9th century. Very high solar activity is then seen in the first four decades with four aurora clusters and three simultaneous sunspot clusters, and low C-14, again also increasing temperature. The period of increasing solar activity marks the end of the so-called Dark Ages: While auroral activity increases since about AD 793, temperature starts to increase quite exactly at AD 800. We can reconstruct the Schwabe cycles with aurorae and C-14 data. In summary, we can see a clear correspondence of the variability of solar activity proxies and surface temperature reconstructions. This indicates that solar activity is an important climate driver.
Sources of Geomagnetic Activity during Nearly Three Solar Cycles (1972-2000)
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Richardson, I. G.; Cane, H. V.; Cliver, E. W.; White, Nicholas E. (Technical Monitor)
2002-01-01
We examine the contributions of the principal solar wind components (corotating highspeed streams, slow solar wind, and transient structures, i.e., interplanetary coronal mass ejections (CMEs), shocks, and postshock flows) to averages of the aa geomagnetic index and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength in 1972-2000 during nearly three solar cycles. A prime motivation is to understand the influence of solar cycle variations in solar wind structure on long-term (e.g., approximately annual) averages of these parameters. We show that high-speed streams account for approximately two-thirds of long-term aa averages at solar minimum, while at solar maximum, structures associated with transients make the largest contribution (approx. 50%), though contributions from streams and slow solar wind continue to be present. Similarly, high-speed streams are the principal contributor (approx. 55%) to solar minimum averages of the IMF, while transient-related structures are the leading contributor (approx. 40%) at solar maximum. These differences between solar maximum and minimum reflect the changing structure of the near-ecliptic solar wind during the solar cycle. For minimum periods, the Earth is embedded in high-speed streams approx. 55% of the time versus approx. 35% for slow solar wind and approx. 10% for CME-associated structures, while at solar maximum, typical percentages are as follows: high-speed streams approx. 35%, slow solar wind approx. 30%, and CME-associated approx. 35%. These compositions show little cycle-to-cycle variation, at least for the interval considered in this paper. Despite the change in the occurrences of different types of solar wind over the solar cycle (and less significant changes from cycle to cycle), overall, variations in the averages of the aa index and IMF closely follow those in corotating streams. Considering solar cycle averages, we show that high-speed streams account for approx. 44%, approx. 48%, and approx. 40% of the solar wind composition, aa, and the IMF strength, respectively, with corresponding figures of approx. 22%, approx. 32%, and approx. 25% for CME-related structures, and approx. 33%, approx. 19%, and approx. 33% for slow solar wind.
Parameterized study of the ionospheric modification associated with sun-aligned polar cap arcs
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Crain, D. J.; Sojka, J. J.; Schunk, R. W.; Zhu, L.
1993-01-01
The local ionospheric modification that is due to a generalized steady state solar aligned (SA) arc structure is addressed. For a representative set of SA arc parameters which includes both convection and precipitation, emphasis is placed on the modification by SA polar cap arcs upon the F region electron density and the height integrated conductivity. At low fluxes and low characteristic energies, SA polar cap arcs have the most pronounced relative effect at F region altitudes in darkness for winter solar minimum conditions. The absolute enhancement in summer solar minimum and winter solar maximum is equivalent to that of winter solar minimum, but the higher ambient densities make the relative enhancement less. The TEC enhancement associated with an SA arc may be used to indicate the degree of plasma cross flow across the arc.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nguyen Thai, Chinh; Temitope Seun, Oluwadare; Le Thi, Nhung; Schuh, Harald
2017-04-01
The sun has its own seasons with an average duration of about 11 years. In this time, the sun enters a period of increased activity called the solar maximum and a period of decreased activity called the solar minimum. Cycles span from one minimum to the next. The current solar cycle is 24, which began on January 4, 2008 and is expected to be ended in 2019. During this period, the ionosphere changes its thickness and its characteristics as well. The change is most complicated and unpredictable at the equatorial latitudes in a band around 150 northward and 150 southward from the equator. Thailand is located in these regions is known as one of the countries most affected by the ionosphere change. Ionospheric information such as the vertical total electron content (VTEC) and scintillation indices can be extracted from the measurements of GNSS dual-frequency receivers. In this study, a Matlab tool is programmed to calculate some ionosphere parameters from the normal RINEX observation file including VTEC value, amplitude scintillation S4 index and others. The value of VTEC at one IGS station in Thailand (13.740N, 100.530E) is computed for almost one full solar cycle, that is 8 years, from 2009 to 2016. From these results, we are able to derive the rules of TEC variation over time and its dependence on solar activity in the equatorial regions. The change of VTEC is estimated in diurnal, seasonal and annual variation for the latest solar cycle. The solar cycle can be represented in several ways, in this paper we use the sunspot number and the F10.7 cm radio flux to describe the solar activity. The correlation coefficients between these solar indices and the monthly maximum of VTEC value are around 0.87, this indicates a high dependence of the ionosphere on solar activity. Besides, a scintillation map derived from GNSS data is displayed to indicate the intensity of scintillation activity.
Time variation of galactic cosmic rays
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Evenson, Paul
1988-01-01
Time variations in the flux of galactic cosmic rays are the result of changing conditions in the solar wind. Maximum cosmic ray fluxes, which occur when solar activity is at a minimum, are well defined. Reductions from this maximum level are typically systematic and predictable but on occasion are rapid and unexpected. Models relating the flux level at lower energy to that at neutron monitor energy are typically accurate to 20 percent of the total excursion at that energy. Other models, relating flux to observables such as sunspot number, flare frequency, and current sheet tilt are phenomenological but nevertheless can be quite accurate.
Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Arsenovic, Pavle; Rozanov, Eugene; Anet, Julien; Stenke, Andrea; Schmutz, Werner; Peter, Thomas
2018-03-01
Continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to cause further global warming throughout the 21st century. Understanding the role of natural forcings and their influence on global warming is thus of great interest. Here we investigate the impact of a recently proposed 21st century grand solar minimum on atmospheric chemistry and climate using the SOCOL3-MPIOM chemistry-climate model with an interactive ocean element. We examine five model simulations for the period 2000-2199, following the greenhouse gas concentration scenario RCP4.5 and a range of different solar forcings. The reference simulation is forced by perpetual repetition of solar cycle 23 until the year 2199. This reference is compared with grand solar minimum simulations, assuming a strong decline in solar activity of 3.5 and 6.5 W m-2, respectively, that last either until 2199 or recover in the 22nd century. Decreased solar activity by 6.5 W m-2 is found to yield up to a doubling of the GHG-induced stratospheric and mesospheric cooling. Under the grand solar minimum scenario, tropospheric temperatures are also projected to decrease compared to the reference. On the global scale a reduced solar forcing compensates for at most 15 % of the expected greenhouse warming at the end of the 21st and around 25 % at the end of the 22nd century. The regional effects are predicted to be significant, in particular in northern high-latitude winter. In the stratosphere, the reduction of around 15 % of incoming ultraviolet radiation leads to a decrease in ozone production by up to 8 %, which overcompensates for the anticipated ozone increase due to reduced stratospheric temperatures and an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. This, in turn, leads to a delay in total ozone column recovery from anthropogenic halogen-induced depletion, with a global ozone recovery to the pre-ozone hole values happening only upon completion of the grand solar minimum.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Martucci, M.; Munini, R.; Boezio, M.; Di Felice, V.; Adriani, O.; Barbarino, G. C.; Bazilevskaya, G. A.; Bellotti, R.; Bongi, M.; Bonvicini, V.; Bottai, S.; Bruno, A.; Cafagna, F.; Campana, D.; Carlson, P.; Casolino, M.; Castellini, G.; De Santis, C.; Galper, A. M.; Karelin, A. V.; Koldashov, S. V.; Koldobskiy, S.; Krutkov, S. Y.; Kvashnin, A. N.; Leonov, A.; Malakhov, V.; Marcelli, L.; Marcelli, N.; Mayorov, A. G.; Menn, W.; Mergè, M.; Mikhailov, V. V.; Mocchiutti, E.; Monaco, A.; Mori, N.; Osteria, G.; Panico, B.; Papini, P.; Pearce, M.; Picozza, P.; Ricci, M.; Ricciarini, S. B.; Simon, M.; Sparvoli, R.; Spillantini, P.; Stozhkov, Y. I.; Vacchi, A.; Vannuccini, E.; Vasilyev, G.; Voronov, S. A.; Yurkin, Y. T.; Zampa, G.; Zampa, N.; Potgieter, M. S.; Raath, J. L.
2018-02-01
Precise measurements of the time-dependent intensity of the low-energy (<50 GeV) galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are fundamental to test and improve the models that describe their propagation inside the heliosphere. In particular, data spanning different solar activity periods, i.e., from minimum to maximum, are needed to achieve comprehensive understanding of such physical phenomena. The minimum phase between solar cycles 23 and 24 was peculiarly long, extending up to the beginning of 2010 and followed by the maximum phase, reached during early 2014. In this Letter, we present proton differential spectra measured from 2010 January to 2014 February by the PAMELA experiment. For the first time the GCR proton intensity was studied over a wide energy range (0.08–50 GeV) by a single apparatus from a minimum to a maximum period of solar activity. The large statistics allowed the time variation to be investigated on a nearly monthly basis. Data were compared and interpreted in the context of a state-of-the-art three-dimensional model describing the GCRs propagation through the heliosphere.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
McIntosh, Scott W.; Burkepile, Joan; Miesch, Mark
2013-03-10
Among many other measurable quantities, the summer of 2009 saw a considerable low in the radiative output of the Sun that was temporally coincident with the largest cosmic-ray flux ever measured at 1 AU. Combining measurements and observations made by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) spacecraft we begin to explore the complexities of the descending phase of solar cycle 23, through the 2009 minimum into the ascending phase of solar cycle 24. A hemispheric asymmetry in magnetic activity is clearly observed and its evolution monitored and the resulting (prolonged) magnetic imbalance must have hadmore » a considerable impact on the structure and energetics of the heliosphere. While we cannot uniquely tie the variance and scale of the surface magnetism to the dwindling radiative and particulate output of the star, or the increased cosmic-ray flux through the 2009 minimum, the timing of the decline and rapid recovery in early 2010 would appear to inextricably link them. These observations support a picture where the Sun's hemispheres are significantly out of phase with each other. Studying historical sunspot records with this picture in mind shows that the northern hemisphere has been leading since the middle of the last century and that the hemispheric ''dominance'' has changed twice in the past 130 years. The observations presented give clear cause for concern, especially with respect to our present understanding of the processes that produce the surface magnetism in the (hidden) solar interior-hemispheric asymmetry is the normal state-the strong symmetry shown in 1996 was abnormal. Further, these observations show that the mechanism(s) which create and transport the magnetic flux are slowly changing with time and, it appears, with only loose coupling across the equator such that those asymmetries can persist for a considerable time. As the current asymmetry persists and the basal energetics of the system continue to dwindle we anticipate new radiative and particulate lows coupled with increased cosmic-ray fluxes heading into the next solar minimum.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Echim, Marius M.
2014-05-01
In the framework of the European FP7 project STORM ("Solar system plasma Turbulence: Observations, inteRmittency and Multifractals") we analyze the properties of turbulence in various regions of the solar system, for the minimum and respectively maximum of the solar activity. The main scientific objective of STORM is to advance the understanding of the turbulent energy transfer, intermittency and multifractals in space plasmas. Specific analysis methods are applied on magnetic field and plasma data provided by Ulysses, Venus Express and Cluster, as well as other solar system missions (e.g. Giotto, Cassini). In this paper we provide an overview of the spectral properties of turbulence derived from Power Spectral Densities (PSD) computed in the solar wind (from Ulysses, Cluster, Venus Express) and at the interface of planetary magnetospheres with the solar wind (from Venus Express, Cluster). Ulysses provides data in the solar wind between 1992 and 2008, out of the ecliptic, at radial distances ranging between 1.3 and 5.4 AU. We selected only those Ulysses data that satisfy a consolidated set of selection criteria able to identify "pure" fast and slow wind. We analyzed Venus Express data close to the orbital apogee, in the solar wind, at 0.72 AU, and in the Venus magnetosheath. We investigated Cluster data in the solar wind (for time intervals not affected by planetary ions effects), the magnetosheath and few crossings of other key magnetospheric regions (cusp, plasma sheet). We organize our PSD results in three solar wind data bases (one for the solar maximum, 1999-2001, two for the solar minimum, 1997-1998 and respectively, 2007-2008), and two planetary databases (one for the solar maximum, 2000-2001, that includes PSD obtained in the terrestrial magnetosphere, and one for the solar minimum, 2007-2008, that includes PSD obtained in the terrestrial and Venus magnetospheres and magnetosheaths). In addition to investigating the properties of turbulence for the minimum and maximum of the solar cycle we also analyze the spectral similarities and differences between fast and slow wind turbulence. We emphasize the importance of our data survey and analysis in the context of understanding the solar wind turbulence, the exploitation of data bases and as a first step towards developing a (virtual) laboratory for studying solar system plasma turbulence. Research supported by the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no 313038/STORM, and a grant of the Romanian Ministry of National Education, CNCS - UEFISCDI, project number PN-II-ID-PCE-2012-4-0418.
Electron Heat Flux in Pressure Balance Structures at Ulysses
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Yamauchi, Yohei; Suess, Steven T.; Sakurai, Takashi; Whitaker, Ann F. (Technical Monitor)
2001-01-01
Pressure balance structures (PBSs) are a common feature in the high-latitude solar wind near solar minimum. Rom previous studies, PBSs are believed to be remnants of coronal plumes and be related to network activity such as magnetic reconnection in the photosphere. We investigated the magnetic structures of the PBSs, applying a minimum variance analysis to Ulysses/Magnetometer data. At 2001 AGU Spring meeting, we reported that PBSs have structures like current sheets or plasmoids, and suggested that they are associated with network activity at the base of polar plumes. In this paper, we have analyzed high-energy electron data at Ulysses/SWOOPS to see whether bi-directional electron flow exists and confirm the conclusions more precisely. As a result, although most events show a typical flux directed away from the Sun, we have obtained evidence that some PBSs show bi-directional electron flux and others show an isotropic distribution of electron pitch angles. The evidence shows that plasmoids are flowing away from the Sun, changing their flow direction dynamically in a way not caused by Alfven waves. From this, we have concluded that PBSs are generated due to network activity at the base of polar plumes and their magnetic structures axe current sheets or plasmoids.
A simple theory of back surface field /BSF/ solar cells
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Von Roos, O.
1978-01-01
A theory of an n-p-p/+/ junction is developed, entirely based on Shockley's depletion layer approximation. Under the further assumption of uniform doping the electrical characteristics of solar cells as a function of all relevant parameters (cell thickness, diffusion lengths, etc.) can quickly be ascertained with a minimum of computer time. Two effects contribute to the superior performance of a BSF cell (n-p-p/+/ junction) as compared to an ordinary solar cell (n-p junction). The sharing of the applied voltage among the two junctions (the n-p and the p-p/+/ junction) decreases the dark current and the reflection of minority carriers by the builtin electron field of the p-p/+/ junction increases the short-circuit current. The theory predicts an increase in the open-circuit voltage (Voc) with a decrease in cell thickness. Although the short-circuit current decreases at the same time, the efficiency of the cell is virtually unaltered in going from a thickness of 200 microns to a thickness of 50 microns. The importance of this fact for space missions where large power-to-weight ratios are required is obvious.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lennartsson, O. W.; Klumpar, D. M.; Shelley, E. G.; Quinn, J. M.
1993-01-01
Data from energetic ion mass spectrometers on the International Sun Earth Explorer 1 (ISEE 1) and AMPTE/CCE spacecraft are combined with geomagnetic and solar indices to investigate, in a statistical fashion, whether energized O(+) ions of terrestrial origin constitute a source of feedback which triggers or amplifies geomagnetic magnetotail current sheet. The ISSE 1 data (0.1-16 keV/e) provide in situ observations of the O(+) solar cycle 21, as well as inner magnetosphere data from same period. The CCE data (0.1-17 keV/e), taken during the subsequent solar minimum, all within 9 R(sub E), provide a reference for long-term variations in the magnetosphere O(+) content. Statistical correlations between the ion data and the indices, and between different indices, all point in the same direction: there is probably no feedback specific to the O(+) ions, in spite of the fact that they often contribute most of the ion mass density in the tail current sheet.
QUIET-TIME SUPRATHERMAL (∼0.1–1.5 keV) ELECTRONS IN THE SOLAR WIND
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Tao, Jiawei; Wang, Linghua; Zong, Qiugang
2016-03-20
We present a statistical survey of the energy spectrum of solar wind suprathermal (∼0.1–1.5 keV) electrons measured by the WIND 3DP instrument at 1 AU during quiet times at the minimum and maximum of solar cycles 23 and 24. After separating (beaming) strahl electrons from (isotropic) halo electrons according to their different behaviors in the angular distribution, we fit the observed energy spectrum of both strahl and halo electrons at ∼0.1–1.5 keV to a Kappa distribution function with an index κ and effective temperature T{sub eff}. We also calculate the number density n and average energy E{sub avg} of strahl andmore » halo electrons by integrating the electron measurements between ∼0.1 and 1.5 keV. We find a strong positive correlation between κ and T{sub eff} for both strahl and halo electrons, and a strong positive correlation between the strahl n and halo n, likely reflecting the nature of the generation of these suprathermal electrons. In both solar cycles, κ is larger at solar minimum than at solar maximum for both strahl and halo electrons. The halo κ is generally smaller than the strahl κ (except during the solar minimum of cycle 23). The strahl n is larger at solar maximum, but the halo n shows no difference between solar minimum and maximum. Both the strahl n and halo n have no clear association with the solar wind core population, but the density ratio between the strahl and halo roughly anti-correlates (correlates) with the solar wind density (velocity)« less
Solar activity during the deep minimum of 2009
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sylwester, Janusz; Siarkowski, Marek; Gburek, Szymon; Gryciuk, Magdalena; Kepa, Anna; Kowaliński, Mirosław; Mrozek, Tomek; Phillips, Kenneth J. H.; Podgórski, Piotr; Sylwester, Barbara
2014-12-01
We discuss the character of the unusually deep solar activity minimum of 2009 between Solar Cycles 23 and 24. Levels of solar activity in various parts of the solar atmosphere -- photosphere, chromosphere, transition region, and corona -- were observed to be at their lowest for a century. The soft X-ray emission from the corona (hot outer part of the Sun's atmosphere) was measured throughout most of 2009 with the Polish-built SphinX spectrophotometer. Unlike other X-ray monitoring spacecraft, this sensitive spacecraft-borne instrument was able to continue measurements throughout this extended period of low activity.
Statistical properties of solar flares and coronal mass ejections through the solar cycle
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Telloni, Daniele; Carbone, Vincenzo; Lepreti, Fabio; Antonucci, Ester
2016-03-01
Waiting Time Distributions (WTDs) of solar flares are investigated all through the solar cycle. The same approach applied to Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in a previous work is considered here for flare occurrence. Our analysis reveals that flares and CMEs share some common statistical properties, which result dependent on the level of solar activity. Both flares and CMEs seem to independently occur during minimum solar activity phases, whilst their WTDs significantly deviate from a Poisson function at solar maximum, thus suggesting that these events are correlated. The characteristics of WTDs are constrained by the physical processes generating those eruptions associated with flares and CMEs. A scenario may be drawn in which different mechanisms are actively at work during different phases of the solar cycle. Stochastic processes, most likely related to random magnetic reconnections of the field lines, seem to play a key role during solar minimum periods. On the other hand, persistent processes, like sympathetic eruptions associated to the variability of the photospheric magnetism, are suggested to dominate during periods of high solar activity. Moreover, despite the similar statistical properties shown by flares and CMEs, as it was mentioned above, their WTDs appear different in some aspects. During solar minimum periods, the flare occurrence randomness seems to be more evident than for CMEs. Those persistent mechanisms generating interdependent events during maximum periods of solar activity can be suggested to play a more important role for CMEs than for flares, thus mitigating the competitive action of the random processes, which seem instead strong enough to weaken the correlations among flare event occurrence during solar minimum periods. However, it cannot be excluded that the physical processes at the basis of the origin of the temporal correlation between solar events are different for flares and CMEs, or that, more likely, more sophisticated effects are at work at the same time leading to an even more complex picture. This work represents a first step for further investigations.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Burlaga, L. F.; Ness, N. F.
2011-01-01
The magnetic polarity pattern observed by Voyager 2 (V2) evolved with time from a nearly equal mixture of positive and negative polarity sectors in the sector zone from 2007.00 to 2007.67 to nearly uniform positive polarity (magnetic fields directed away from the Sun) in the unipolar zone from 2009.6 to 2010.3. This change was caused by the decreasing latitudinal extent of the sector zone, when the minimum extent of the heliospheric current sheet moved northward toward the solar equator as the solar activity associated with solar cycle 23 decreased a minimum in 2010. In the heliosheath, the distribution of daily averages of the magnetic field strength B was lognormal in the sector zone from 2008.83 to 2009.57 and Gaussian in the unipolar zone from 2009.57 to 2010.27. The distribution of daily increments of B was a Tsallis distribution (q-Gaussian distribution) with q = 1.66 +/- 0.010 in the sector zone and . Gaussian (q = 1.01+/-0.29) in the unipolar zone. The unipolar region appears to be in a relatively undisturbed equilibrium state.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Moloto, K. D.; Engelbrecht, N. E.; Burger, R. A.
2018-06-01
A simplified ab initio approach is followed to model cosmic-ray proton modulation, using a steady-state three-dimensional stochastic solver of the Parker transport equation that simulates some effects of time dependence. Standard diffusion coefficients based on Quasilinear Theory and Nonlinear Guiding Center Theory are employed. The spatial and temporal dependences of the various turbulence quantities required as inputs for the diffusion, as well as the turbulence-reduced drift coefficients, follow from parametric fits to results from a turbulence transport model as well as from spacecraft observations of these turbulence quantities. Effective values are used for the solar wind speed, magnetic field magnitude, and tilt angle in the modulation model to simulate temporal effects due to changes in the large-scale heliospheric plasma. The unusually high cosmic-ray intensities observed during the 2009 solar minimum follow naturally from the current model for most of the energies considered. This demonstrates that changes in turbulence contribute significantly to the high intensities during that solar minimum. We also discuss and illustrate how this model can be used to predict future cosmic-ray intensities, and comment on the reliability of such predictions.
NEW EVIDENCE FOR CHARGE-SIGN-DEPENDENT MODULATION DURING THE SOLAR MINIMUM OF 2006 TO 2009
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Di Felice, V.; Munini, R.; Vos, E. E.
The PAMELA space experiment, in orbit since 2006, has measured cosmic rays (CRs) through the most recent period of minimum solar activity with the magnetic field polarity as A < 0. During this entire time, galactic electrons and protons have been detected down to 70 MV and 400 MV, respectively, and their differential variation in intensity with time has been monitored with unprecedented accuracy. These observations are used to show how differently electrons and protons responded to the quiet modulation conditions that prevailed from 2006 to 2009. It is well known that particle drifts, as one of four major mechanisms for the solarmore » modulation of CRs, cause charge-sign-dependent solar modulation. Periods of minimum solar activity provide optimal conditions in which to study these drift effects. The observed behavior is compared to the solutions of a three-dimensional model for CRs in the heliosphere, including drifts. The numerical results confirm that the difference in the evolution of electron and proton spectra during the last prolonged solar minimum is attributed to a large extent to particle drifts. We therefore present new evidence of charge-sign-dependent solar modulation, with a perspective on its peculiarities for the observed period from 2006 to 2009.« less
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Deland, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.
1994-01-01
Quantitative assessment of the impact of solar ultraviolet irradiance variations on stratospheric ozone abundances currently requires the use of proxy indicators. The Mg II core-to-wing index has been developed as an indicator of solar UV activity between 175-400 nm that is independent of most instrument artifacts, and measures solar variability on both rotational and solar cycle time scales. Linear regression fits have been used to merge the individual Mg II index data sets from the Nimbus-7, NOAA-9, and NOAA-11 instruments onto a single reference scale. The change in 27-dayrunning average of the composite Mg II index from solar maximum to solar minimum is approximately 8 percent for solar cycle 21, and approximately 9 percent for solar cycle 22 through January 1992. Scaling factors based on the short-term variations in the Mg II index and solar irradiance data sets have been developed to estimate solar variability at mid-UV and near-UV wavelengths. Near 205 nm, where solar irradiance variations are important for stratospheric photo-chemistry and dynamics, the estimated change in irradiance during solar cycle 22 is approximately 10 percent using the composite Mg II index and scale factors.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Perna, L.; Pezzopane, M.
2016-10-01
Analyses of the dependence of the F2layer critical frequency, foF2, on five widely used solar activity indices (F10.7, Lym-α, MgII, R and EUV0.1-50)are carried out considering noon values manually validated at the ionospheric station of Rome (41.8°N, 12.5°E, Italy) between January 1976 and December 2013, a period of time covering the last three solar cycles and including the prolonged and anomalous minimum of solar cycle 23/24 (years 2008-2009). After applying a 1-year running mean to both foF2 and solar activity indices time series, a second order polynomial fitting proves to perform better than a linear one, and this is specifically due to the very low solar activity of the last solar minimum and to the remaining saturation effect characterizing the high solar activity. A comparison between observed and synthetic foF2 values, the latter calculated by using the analytical relations found for every index, and some considerations made on the R parameter introduced by Solomon et al. (2013), suggest that MgII is the best index to describe the dependence of foF2 on the solar activity. Three main reasons justify this result: (1) the good sensibility of MgII to the variations of foF2 for low solar activity; (2) the reduced saturation effect characterizing MgII at high solar activity; (3) the poor influence of the hysteresis effect characterizing MgII at medium solar activity. On the other hand, the F10.7 index, widely used as input parameter for numerous ionospheric models, does not represent properly the last minimum; specifically, it is not able to describe the variations of foF2 under a solar activity level of F10.7=82·10-22 [J Hz-1 s-1 m-2].
A coronal magnetic field model with horizontal volume and sheet currents
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zhao, Xuepu; Hoeksema, J. Todd
1994-01-01
When globally mapping the observed photospheric magnetic field into the corona, the interaction of the solar wind and magnetic field has been treated either by imposing source surface boundary conditions that tacitly require volume currents outside the source surface or by limiting the interaction to thin current sheets between oppositely directed field regions. Yet observations and numerical Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) calculations suggest the presence of non-force-free volume currents throughout the corona as well as thin current sheets in the neighborhoods of the interfaces between closed and open field lines or between oppositely directed open field lines surrounding coronal helmet-streamer structures. This work presents a model including both horizontal volume currents and streamer sheet currents. The present model builds on the magnetostatic equilibria developed by Bogdan and Low and the current-sheet modeling technique developed by Schatten. The calculation uses synoptic charts of the line-of-sight component of the photospheric magnetic field measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory. Comparison of an MHD model with the calculated model results for the case of a dipole field and comparison of eclipse observations with calculations for CR 1647 (near solar minimum) show that this horizontal current-current-sheet model reproduces polar plumes and axes of corona streamers better than the source-surface model and reproduces polar plumes and axes of corona streamers better than the source-surface model and reproduces coro nal helmet structures better than the current-sheet model.
The asymmetrical features in electron density during extreme solar minimum
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Xuemin; Shen, Xuhui; Liu, Jing; Yao, Lu; Yuan, Guiping; Huang, Jianping
2014-12-01
The variations of plasma density in topside ionosphere during 23rd/24th solar cycle minimum attract more attentions in recently years. In this analysis, we use the data of electron density (Ne) from DEMETER (Detection of Electromagnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions) satellite at the altitude of 660-710 km to investigate the solstitial and equinoctial asymmetry under geomagnetic coordinate system at LT (local time) 1030 and 2230 during 2005-2010, especially in solar minimum years of 2008-2009. The results reveal that ΔNe (December-June) is always positive over Southern Hemisphere and negative over northern part whatever at LT 1030 or 2230, only at 0-10°N the winter anomaly occurs with ΔNe (December-June) > 0, and its amplitude becomes smaller with the declining of solar flux from 2005 to 2009. The ΔNe between September and March is completely negative during 2005-2008, but in 2009, it turns to be positive at latitudes of 20°S-40°N at LT 1030 and 10°S-20°N at LT 2230. Furthermore, the solstitial and equinoctial asymmetry index (AI) are calculated and studied respectively, which all depends on local time, latitude and longitude. The notable differences occur at higher latitudes in solar minimum year of 2009 with those in 2005-2008. The equinoctial AI at LT 2230 is quite consistent with the variational trend of solar flux with the lowest absolute AI occurring in 2009, the extreme solar minimum, but the solstitial AI exhibits abnormal enhancement during 2008 and 2009 with bigger AI than those in 2005-2007. Compared with the neutral compositions at 500 km altitude, it illustrates that [O/N2] and [O] play some roles in daytime and nighttime asymmetry of Ne at topside ionosphere.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Didkovsky, L.; Gurman, J. B.
2013-01-01
Solar activity during 2007 - 2009 was very low, causing anomalously low thermospheric density. A comparison of solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance in the He II spectral band (26 to 34 nm) from the Solar Extreme ultraviolet Monitor (SEM), one of instruments on the Charge Element and Isotope Analysis System (CELIAS) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) for the two latest solar minima showed a decrease of the absolute irradiance of about 15 +/- 6 % during the solar minimum between Cycles 23 and 24 compared with the Cycle 22/23 minimum when a yearly running-mean filter was used. We found that some local, shorter-term minima including those with the same absolute EUV flux in the SEM spectral band show a higher concentration of spatial power in the global network structure from the 30.4 nm SOHO/Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) images for the local minimum of 1996 compared with the minima of 2008 - 2011.We interpret this higher concentration of spatial power in the transition region's global network structure as a larger number of larger-area features on the solar disk. These changes in the global network structure during solar minima may characterize, in part, the geo-effectiveness of the solar He II EUV irradiance in addition to the estimations based on its absolute levels.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Felix Pereira, B.; Girish, T. E.
2004-05-01
The solar cycle variations in the characteristics of the GSE latitudinal angles of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field ($\\theta$GSE) observed near 1 AU have been studied for the period 1967-2000. It is observed that the statistical parameters mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis vary with sunspot cycle. The $\\theta$GSE distribution resembles the Gaussian curve during sunspot maximum and is clearly non-Gaussian during sunspot minimum. The width of the $\\theta$GSE distribution is found to increase with sunspot activity, which is likely to depend on the occurrence of solar transients. Solar cycle variations in skewness are ordered by the solar polar magnetic field changes. This can be explained in terms of the dependence of the dominant polarity of the north-south component of IMF in the GSE system near 1 AU on the IMF sector polarity and the structure of the heliospheric current sheet.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Spangehl, Thomas; Cubasch, Ulrich; Schimanke, Semjon
A fully coupled AO-GCM including representation of the middle atmosphere is used for tran-sient simulation of climate from 1630 to 2000 AD. For better representation of changes in the UV/visible part of the solar spectrum an improved short-wave radiation scheme is implemented. The model is driven by changes in GHG concentrations, solar activity and volcanic eruptions. Solar variability is introduced via changes in total/spectral solar irradiance (TSI/SSI) and pre-scribed changes in stratospheric ozone. The secular trend in TSI is in the range of 0.1 percent increase from Maunder Minimum to present-day. Volcanic eruptions are represented via abrupt reduction in TSI. With the applied forcings the model does not simulate a clear reduction of the annual Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean near surface temperature during Maunder Minimum. By contrast the Dalton Minimum is characterized by distinct cooling and there is a significant raise of NH mean near surface temperature until the end of the 20th century. Focusing on the North Atlantic/European region the winter mean near surface temperature change pat-tern from Late Maunder Minimum (1675-1715) to present-day (1960-1990) reveals maximum warming over north-eastern Europe and cooling over the western North Atlantic with maxi-mum cooling west of Greenland. These changes can partly be explained by a shift of the NAO towards a more positive phase. The simulated changes in tropospheric circulation are discussed with special emphasize on the role of the solar forcing. Besides the stratospheric solar forcing which may affect NAO variability via downward propagation of the solar signal from the strato-sphere to the troposphere the magnitude of the secular trend in TSI might play a role. For the period from Maunder Minimum to present-day the simulation shows less near surface temper-ature increase especially over arctic regions when compared to simulations performed with the same model including the standard radiation scheme but applying larger TSI variations. The associated changes in lower tropospheric baroclinicity are more favourable for synoptic scale wave activity over the North Atlantic and might thereby contribute to strengthening of the NAO.
LASCO Observations Of The K-Corona From Solar Minimum To Solar Maximum And Beyond
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Andrews, Michael D.; Howard, Russell A.
2003-09-01
The LASCO C2 and C3 coronagraphs on SOHO have been recording a regular series of images of the corona since May 1996. This sequence of data covers the period of solar minimum, the increase to solar maximum, and the beginning of the decline toward the next solar minimum. The images have been analyzed to determine the brightness of the K-corona (solar photons Thomson scattered from free electrons). The total brightness of the K-corona is approximately constant from May 1996 through May 1997. The brightness is then seen to increase steadily until early in the year 2000. The structure of the K-corona changes dramatically with solar cycle. The shape as seen in C2 becomes almost circular at solar maximum while the C3 images continue to show equatorial streamers. The magnitude of the solar cycle variation decreases as the height increases. We present data animations (movies) to show the large-scale structure. We have inverted 28-day averages of the white light images to determine radial profiles of electron density. We present these electron profiles, show how they vary as a function of both latitude and time, and compare our observed profiles with other models and observations.
Changes in the relationship NAO-Northern hemisphere temperature due to solar activity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gimeno, Luis; de la Torre, Laura; Nieto, Raquel; García, Ricardo; Hernández, Emiliano; Ribera, Pedro
2003-01-01
The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on wintertime Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) is investigated. The results suggest that this relationship has different sign according to the phase of the solar cycle. For solar maximum phases NAO and NHT are positively correlated - a result assumed up to the moment - but for solar minimum phases correlations are not significant or even negative. This result is in agreement with the different extension of the NAO for solar cycle phases [Kodera, Geophys. Res. Lett. 29 (2002) 14557-14560] - almost hemispheric for maximum phases and confined to the eastern Atlantic for minimum phases.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kasper, J. C.; Stenens, M. L.; Stevens, M. L.; Lazarus, A. J.; Steinberg, J. T.; Ogilvie, Keith W.
2006-01-01
We present a study of the variation of the relative abundance of helium to hydrogen in the solar wind as a function of solar wind speed and heliographic latitude over the previous solar cycle. The average values of A(sub He), the ratio of helium to hydrogen number densities, are calculated in 25 speed intervals over 27-day Carrington rotations using Faraday Cup observations from the Wind spacecraft between 1995 and 2005. The higher speed and time resolution of this study compared to an earlier work with the Wind observations has led to the discovery of three new aspects of A(sub He), modulation during solar minimum from mid-1995 to mid-1997. First, we find that for solar wind speeds between 350 and 415 km/s, A(sub He), varies with a clear six-month periodicity, with a minimum value at the heliographic equatorial plane and a typical gradient of 0.01 per degree in latitude. For the slow wind this is a 30% effect. We suggest that the latitudinal gradient may be due to an additional dependence of coronal proton flux on coronal field strength or the stability of coronal loops. Second, once the gradient is subtracted, we find that A(sub He), is a remarkably linear function of solar wind speed. Finally, we identify a vanishing speed, at which A(sub He), is zero, is 259 km/s and note that this speed corresponds to the minimum solar wind speed observed at one AU. The vanishing speed may be related to previous theoretical work in which enhancements of coronal helium lead to stagnation of the escaping proton flux. During solar maximum the A(sub He), dependences on speed and latitude disappear, and we interpret this as evidence of two source regions for slow solar wind in the ecliptic plane, one being the solar minimum streamer belt and the other likely being active regions.
Standardization of Solar Mirror Reflectance Measurements - Round Robin Test: Preprint
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Meyen, S.; Lupfert, E.; Fernandez-Garcia, A.
2010-10-01
Within the SolarPaces Task III standardization activities, DLR, CIEMAT, and NREL have concentrated on optimizing the procedure to measure the reflectance of solar mirrors. From this work, the laboratories have developed a clear definition of the method and requirements needed of commercial instruments for reliable reflectance results. A round robin test was performed between the three laboratories with samples that represent all of the commercial solar mirrors currently available for concentrating solar power (CSP) applications. The results show surprisingly large differences in hemispherical reflectance (sh) of 0.007 and specular reflectance (ss) of 0.004 between the laboratories. These differences indicate themore » importance of minimum instrument requirements and standardized procedures. Based on these results, the optimal procedure will be formulated and validated with a new round robin test in which a better accuracy is expected. Improved instruments and reference standards are needed to reach the necessary accuracy for cost and efficiency calculations.« less
A global view of F-region electron density and temperature at solar maximum
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Brace, L. H.; Theis, R. F.; Hoegy, W. R.
1982-01-01
It is pointed out that the thermal structure of the ionosphere represents a quasi-static balance between a variety of heat sources and sinks which vary spatially and temporally on a wide range of time scales. The present investigation has the objective to present selected early results from the Dynamics Explorer-2 (DE-2) Langmuir probe instrument and to make an initial evaluation of how the thermal structure of the ionosphere at solar maximum differs from that observed at solar minimum. Bowen et al. (1964) and Brace and Reddy (1965) devised early empirical models of the F region electron temperature (Te), based on satellite Langmuir probe measurements at low levels of solar activity. The global structure of Te and the electron density (Ne) obtained in the current investigation is not very different from that reported by Brace and Reddy. The primary difference at solar maximum is that Ne is everywhere much higher, but Te differs only in detail.
Predicting the Where and the How Big of Solar Flares
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Barnes, Graham; Leka, K. D.; Gilchrist, Stuart
2017-08-01
The approach to predicting solar flares generally characterizes global properties of a solar active region, for example the total magnetic flux or the total length of a sheared magnetic neutral line, and compares new data (from which to make a prediction) to similar observations of active regions and their associated propensity for flare production. We take here a different tack, examining solar active regions in the context of their energy storage capacity. Specifically, we characterize not the region as a whole, but summarize the energy-release prospects of different sub-regions within, using a sub-area analysis of the photospheric boundary, the CFIT non-linear force-free extrapolation code, and the Minimum Current Corona model. We present here early results from this approach whose objective is to understand the different pathways available for regions to release stored energy, thus eventually providing better estimates of the where (what sub-areas are storing how much energy) and the how big (how much energy is stored, and how much is available for release) of solar flares.
On dependence of seismic activity on 11 year variations in solar activity and/or cosmic rays
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhantayev, Zhumabek; Khachikyan, Galina; Breusov, Nikolay
2014-05-01
It is found in the last decades that seismic activity of the Earth has a tendency to increase with decreasing solar activity (increasing cosmic rays). A good example of this effect may be the growing number of catastrophic earthquakes in the recent rather long solar minimum. Such results support idea on existence a solar-lithosphere relationship which, no doubts, is a part of total pattern of solar-terrestrial relationships. The physical mechanism of solar-terrestrial relationships is not developed yet. It is believed at present that one of the main contenders for such mechanism may be the global electric circuit (GEC) - vertical current loops, piercing and electrodynamically coupling all geospheres. It is also believed, that the upper boundary of the GEC is located at the magnetopause, where magnetic field of the solar wind reconnects with the geomagnetic field, that results in penetrating solar wind energy into the earth's environment. The effectiveness of the GEC operation depends on intensity of cosmic rays (CR), which ionize the air in the middle atmosphere and provide its conductivity. In connection with the foregoing, it can be expected: i) quantitatively, an increasing seismic activity from solar maximum to solar minimum may be in the same range as increasing CR flux; and ii) in those regions of the globe, where the crust is shipped by the magnetic field lines with number L= ~ 2.0, which are populated by anomalous cosmic rays (ACR), the relationship of seismic activity with variations in solar activity will be manifested most clearly, since there is a pronounced dependence of ACR on solar activity variations. Checking an assumption (i) with data of the global seismological catalog of the NEIC, USGS for 1973-2010, it was found that yearly number of earthquake with magnitude M≥4.5 varies into the 11 year solar cycle in a quantitative range of about 7-8% increasing to solar minimum, that qualitatively and quantitatively as well is in agreement with the variations of CR in the 11 year solar cycle. Checking an assumptions (ii), it is found that during the period from 1973 to 2010, the twenty earthquakes with magnitude M≥7.0 occurred in the seismic areas, where geomagnetic force lines L=2.0 -2.2 are loaned into the earth's crust. Surprisingly, all of these strong earthquakes occurred only at declining phase of the 11 year solar cycle, while were absent at ascending phase. This result proves an expectation (ii) and can be taken into account for forecasting strong earthquake occurrence in the seismic areas where the crust is riddled with geomagnetic field lines L= ~ 2.0. In conclusion: the results support a modern idea that earthquake occurrence is related to operation of global electric circuit, but more research are required to study this problem in more details.
Optimal heliocentric trajectories for solar sail with minimum area
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Petukhov, Vyacheslav G.
2018-05-01
The fixed-time heliocentric trajectory optimization problem is considered for planar solar sail with minimum area. Necessary optimality conditions are derived, a numerical method for solving the problem is developed, and numerical examples of optimal trajectories to Mars, Venus and Mercury are presented. The dependences of the minimum area of the solar sail from the date of departure from the Earth, the time of flight and the departing hyperbolic excess of velocity are analyzed. In particular, for the rendezvous problem (approaching a target planet with zero relative velocity) with zero departing hyperbolic excess of velocity for a flight duration of 1200 days it was found that the minimum area-to-mass ratio should be about 12 m2/kg for trajectory to Venus, 23.5 m2/kg for the trajectory to Mercury and 25 m2/kg for trajectory to Mars.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Curtis, Jason Lee, E-mail: jasoncurtis.astro@gmail.com
The solar analogs of M67 let us glimpse the probable behavior of the Sun on timescales surpassing the duration of human civilization. M67 can serve as a solar proxy because its stars share a similar age and composition with the Sun. Previous surveys of M67 observed that 15% of its Sun-like stars exhibited chromospheric activity levels below solar minimum, which suggest that these stars might be in activity-minimum states analogous to the Maunder Minimum. The activity diagnostic used, the HK index (relative intensities of the Ca ii H and K lines integrated over 1 Å bandpasses), was measured from low-resolution spectramore » ( R ≈ 5000), as is traditional and suitable for nearby, bright stars. However, for stars beyond the Local Bubble, the interstellar medium (ISM) imprints absorption lines in spectra at Ca ii H and K, which negatively bias activity measurements when these lines fall within the HK index bandpass. I model the ISM clouds in the M67 foreground with high-resolution spectra of blue stragglers and solar analogs. I demonstrate that ISM absorption varies across the cluster and must be accounted for on a star-by-star basis. I then apply the ISM model to a solar spectrum and broaden it to the lower spectral resolution employed by prior surveys. Comparing HK indices measured from ISM-free and ISM-contaminated spectra, I find that all stars observed below solar minimum can be explained by this ISM bias. I conclude that there is no compelling evidence for Maunder Minimum candidates in M67 at this time.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Haque, K. A. S. M. Ehteshamul; Galib, Md. Mehedi Hassan
2013-10-01
III-V single-junction solar cells have already achieved very high efficiency levels. However, their use in terrestrial applications is limited by the high fabrication cost. High-efficiency, ultrathin-film solar cells can effectively solve this problem, as their material requirement is minimum. This work presents a comparison among several III-V compounds that have high optical absorption capability as well as optimum bandgap (around 1.4 eV) for use as solar cell absorbers. The aim is to observe and compare the ability of these materials to reach a target efficiency level of 20% with minimum possible cell thickness. The solar cell considered has an n-type ZnSe window layer, an n-type Al0.1Ga0.9As emitter layer, and a p-type Ga0.5In0.5P back surface field (BSF) layer. Ge is used as the substrate. In the initial design, a p-type InP base was sandwiched between the emitter and the BSF layer, and the design parameters for the device were optimized by analyzing the simulation outcomes with ADEPT/F, a one-dimensional (1D) simulation tool. Then, the minimum cell thickness that achieves 20% efficiency was determined by observing the efficiency variation with cell thickness. Afterwards, the base material was changed to a few other selected III-V compounds, and for each case, the minimum cell thickness was determined in a similar manner. Finally, these cell thickness values were compared and analyzed to identify more effective base layer materials for III-V single-junction solar cells.
Wong, Chee-Woon; Chong, Kok-Keong; Tan, Ming-Hui
2015-07-27
This paper presents an approach to optimize the electrical performance of dense-array concentrator photovoltaic system comprised of non-imaging dish concentrator by considering the circumsolar radiation and slope error effects. Based on the simulated flux distribution, a systematic methodology to optimize the layout configuration of solar cells interconnection circuit in dense array concentrator photovoltaic module has been proposed by minimizing the current mismatch caused by non-uniformity of concentrated sunlight. An optimized layout of interconnection solar cells circuit with minimum electrical power loss of 6.5% can be achieved by minimizing the effects of both circumsolar radiation and slope error.
If We Can't Predict Solar Cycle 24, What About Solar Cycle 34?
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Pesnell. William Dean
2008-01-01
Predictions of solar activity in Solar Cycle 24 range from 50% larger than SC 23 to the onset of a Grand Minimum. Because low levels of solar activity are associated with global cooling in paleoclimate and isotopic records, anticipating these extremes is required in any longterm extrapolation of climate variability. Climate models often look forward 100 or more years, which would mean 10 solar cycles into the future. Predictions of solar activity are derived from a number of methods, most of which, such as climatology and physics-based models, will be familiar to atmospheric scientists. More than 50 predictions of the maximum amplitude of SC 24 published before solar minimum will be discussed. Descriptions of several methods that result in the extreme predictions and some anticipation of even longer term predictions will be presented.
Solar activity and oscillation frequency splittings
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Woodard, M. F.; Libbrecht, K. G.
1993-01-01
Solar p-mode frequency splittings, parameterized by the coefficients through order N = 12 of a Legendre polynomial expansion of the mode frequencies as a function of m/L, were obtained from an analysis of helioseismology data taken at Big Bear Solar Observatory during the 4 years 1986 and 1988-1990 (approximately solar minimum to maximum). Inversion of the even-index splitting coefficients confirms that there is a significant contribution to the frequency splittings originating near the solar poles. The strength of the polar contribution is anti correlated with the overall level or solar activity in the active latitudes, suggesting a relation to polar faculae. From an analysis of the odd-index splitting coefficients we infer an uppor limit to changes in the solar equatorial near-surface rotatinal velocity of less than 1.9 m/s (3 sigma limit) between solar minimum and maximum.
A Solar Cycle Prediction Puzzle's PossibleExplanation?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Luhmann, Janet
2007-05-01
A long-standing and intriguing puzzle of the last few decades has been Joan Feynman's (1982) discovery that the solar cycle (sunspot number) maximum trends follow the level of geomagnetic activity during the prior minimum phase. Recently Hathaway (GRL 33, 2006) used this relationship to make a prediction of the size of the next solar maximum. But the physical reason why this should work at all remains a matter of speculation. Although it has been suggested that geomagnetic activity around solar minimum is determined by the terrestrial magnetosphere's response to high speed solar wind streams which seem to often characterize the declining phase of the cycle, why should the occurrence of these streams portend the new solar maximum? Our improving understanding of solar wind sources may hold the key, and also tell us something useful about the solar dynamo.
Solar wind velocity and temperature in the outer heliosphere
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Gazis, P. R.; Barnes, A.; Mihalov, J. D.; Lazarus, A. J.
1994-01-01
At the end of 1992, the Pioneer 10, Pioneer 11, and Voyager 2 spacecraft were at heliocentric distances of 56.0, 37.3, and 39.0 AU and heliographic latitudes of 3.3 deg N, 17.4 deg N, and 8.6 deg S, respectively. Pioneer 11 and Voyager 2 are at similar celestial longitudes, while Pioneer 10 is on the opposite side of the Sun. All three spacecraft have working plasma analyzers, so intercomparison of data from these spacecraft provides important information about the global character of the solar wind in the outer heliosphere. The averaged solar wind speed continued to exhibit its well-known variation with solar cycle: Even at heliocentric distances greater than 50 AU, the average speed is highest during the declining phase of the solar cycle and lowest near solar minimum. There was a strong latitudinal gradient in solar wind speed between 3 deg and 17 deg N during the last solar minimum, but this gradient has since disappeared. The solar wind temperature declined with increasing heliocentric distance out to a heliocentric distance of at least 20 AU; this decline appeared to continue at larger heliocentric distances, but temperatures in the outer heliosphere were suprisingly high. While Pioneer 10 and Voyager 2 observed comparable solar wind temperatures, the temperature at Pioneer 11 was significantly higher, which suggests the existence of a large-scale variation of temperature with heliographic longitude. There was also some suggestion that solar wind temperatures were higher near solar minimum.
Solar Modulation of Inner Trapped Belt Radiation Flux as a Function of Atmospheric Density
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lodhi, M. A. K.
2005-01-01
No simple algorithm seems to exist for calculating proton fluxes and lifetimes in the Earth's inner, trapped radiation belt throughout the solar cycle. Most models of the inner trapped belt in use depend upon AP8 which only describes the radiation environment at solar maximum and solar minimum in Cycle 20. One exception is NOAAPRO which incorporates flight data from the TIROS/NOAA polar orbiting spacecraft. The present study discloses yet another, simple formulation for approximating proton fluxes at any time in a given solar cycle, in particular between solar maximum and solar minimum. It is derived from AP8 using a regression algorithm technique from nuclear physics. From flux and its time integral fluence, one can then approximate dose rate and its time integral dose.
ULF Waves in the Earth's Inner Magnetosphere: Role in Radiation Belt and Ring Current Dynamics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mann, I. R.; Murphy, K. R.; Rae, J.; Claudepierre, S. G.; Fennell, J. F.; Baker, D. N.; Reeves, G. D.; Spence, H. E.; Ozeke, L.; Milling, D. K.
2013-05-01
Ultra-low frequency (ULF) waves in the Pc4-5 band can be excited in the magnetosphere by the solar wind. Much recent work has shown how ULF wave power is strongly correlated with solar wind speed. However, little attention has been paid the dynamics of ULF wave power penetration onto low L-shells in the inner magnetosphere. We use more than a solar cycle of ULF wave data, derived from ground-based magnetometer networks, to examine this ULF wave power penetration and its dependence on solar wind and geomagnetic activity indices. In time domain data, we show very clearly that dayside ULF wave power, spanning more than 4 orders of magnitude, follows solar wind speed variations throughout the whole solar cycle - during periods of sporadic solar maximum ICMEs, during declining phase fast solar wind streams, and at solar minimum, alike. We also show that time domain ULF wave power increases during magnetic storms activations, and significantly demonstrate that a deeper ULF wave power penetration into the inner magnetosphere occurs during larger negative excursions in Dst. We discuss potential explanations for this low-L ULF wave power penetration, including the role of plasma mass density (such as during plasmaspheric erosion), or ring current ion instabilities during near-Earth ring current penetration. Interestingly, we also show that both ULF wave power and SAMPEX MeV electron flux show a remarkable similarity in their penetration to low-L, which suggests that ULF wave power penetration may be important for understanding and explaining radiation belt dynamics. Moreover, the correlation of ULF wave power with Dst, which peaks at one day lag, suggests the ULF waves might also be important for the inward transport of ions into the ring current. Current ring current models, which exclude long period ULF wave transport, under-estimate the ring current during fast solar wind streams which is consistent with a potential role for ULF waves in ring current energisation. Finally, the combination of data from ground arrays such as CARISMA and the contemporaneous operation of the NASA Van Allen Probes mission offers an excellent basis for understanding this cross-energy plasma coupling which spans more than 6 orders of magnitude in energy; we present an initial example of ULF-wave particle interaction using early mission data. This work has received funding from the European Union under the Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-Space) under grant agreement n 284520 for the MAARBLE (Monitoring, Analyzing and Assessing Radiation Belt Energization and Loss) collaborative research project.
Spectral solar UV irradiance data for cycle 21
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
DeLand, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.
2001-10-01
The Nimbus 7 Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument, which began taking data in November 1978, was the first instrument to make solar UV irradiance measurements covering both the minimum and maximum activity levels of a solar cycle. The currently archived irradiance data set was processed with an instrument characterization which fails to completely account for sensor degradation in the later part of the data record, thus limiting the accuracy of estimated long-term solar activity variations and the scientific value of the data. In this paper, we describe an improved Nimbus 7 SBUV spectral irradiance data set, which utilizes a more accurate model for instrument sensitivity and treats other time-dependent problems in the archived data. Estimated long-term irradiance changes during solar cycle 21 are 8.3(+/-2.6%) at 205 nm, and 4.9(+/-1.8)% at 240 nm. The revised Nimbus 7 SBUV irradiance data are in good agreement with predictions of solar cycle variations from the Mg II index proxy model. These solar irradiance changes are also consistent with overlapping irradiance data from the declining phase of solar cycle 21 measured by the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME). The Nimbus 7 SBUV irradiance data represent the earliest component of a 20+ year continuous record of solar spectral UV activity.
Galactic Cosmic-Ray Energy Spectra and Composition during the 2009-2010 Solar Minimum Period
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lave, K. A.; Wiedenbeck, Mark E.; Binns, W. R.; Christian, E. R.; Cummings, A. C.; Davis, A. J.; deNolfo, G. A.; Israel, M. H..; Leske, R. A.; Mewaldt, R. A.;
2013-01-01
We report new measurements of the elemental energy spectra and composition of galactic cosmic rays during the 2009-2010 solar minimum period using observations from the Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer (CRIS) onboard the Advanced Composition Explorer. This period of time exhibited record-setting cosmic-ray intensities and very low levels of solar activity. Results are given for particles with nuclear charge 5 <= Z <= 28 in the energy range approx. 50-550 MeV / nucleon. Several recent improvements have been made to the earlier CRIS data analysis, and therefore updates of our previous observations for the 1997-1998 solar minimum and 2001-2003 solar maximum are also given here. For most species, the reported intensities changed by less than approx. 7%, and the relative abundances changed by less than approx. 4%. Compared with the 1997-1998 solar minimum relative abundances, the 2009-2010 abundances differ by less than 2sigma, with a trend of fewer secondary species observed in the more recent time period. The new 2009-2010 data are also compared with results of a simple "leaky-box" galactic transport model combined with a spherically symmetric solar modulation model. We demonstrate that this model is able to give reasonable fits to the energy spectra and the secondary-to-primary ratios B/C and (Sc+Ti+V)/Fe. These results are also shown to be comparable to a GALPROP numerical model that includes the effects of diffusive reacceleration in the interstellar medium.
Encore of the Bashful ballerina in solar cycle 23
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mursula, K.; Virtanen, I. I.
2009-04-01
The rotation averaged location of the heliospheric current sheet has been found to be shifted systematically southward for about three years in the late declining to minimum phase of the solar cycle. This behaviour, called by the concept of the Bashful ballerina, has earlier been shown to be valid at least during the active solar cycle of the last century since the late 1920s. Recently, Zhao et al have analysed the WSO observations and conclude that there is no southward coning in HCS or north-south difference in the heliospheric magnetic field during the late declining phase of solar cycle 23. In disagreement with these results, we find that there is a similar but smaller southward shift of the HCS and dominance of the northern field area as in all previous solar cycles. The present smaller asymmetry is in agreement with an earlier observation based on long-term geomagnetic activity that solar hemispheric asymmetry is larger during highly active solar cycles. Moreover, we connect the smallness of shift to the structure of the solar magnetic field with an exceptionally large tilt. We also discuss the cause of the differences between the two approaches reaching different conclusions.
Yamaguchi, Yasuhiko T; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Miyahara, Hiroko; Sho, Kenjiro; Nakatsuka, Takeshi
2010-11-30
The Maunder Minimum (A.D. 1645-1715) is a useful period to investigate possible sun-climate linkages as sunspots became exceedingly rare and the characteristics of solar cycles were different from those of today. Here, we report annual variations in the oxygen isotopic composition (δ(18)O) of tree-ring cellulose in central Japan during the Maunder Minimum. We were able to explore possible sun-climate connections through high-temporal resolution solar activity (radiocarbon contents; Δ(14)C) and climate (δ(18)O) isotope records derived from annual tree rings. The tree-ring δ(18)O record in Japan shows distinct negative δ(18)O spikes (wetter rainy seasons) coinciding with rapid cooling in Greenland and with decreases in Northern Hemisphere mean temperature at around minima of decadal solar cycles. We have determined that the climate signals in all three records strongly correlate with changes in the polarity of solar dipole magnetic field, suggesting a causal link to galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). These findings are further supported by a comparison between the interannual patterns of tree-ring δ(18)O record and the GCR flux reconstructed by an ice-core (10)Be record. Therefore, the variation of GCR flux associated with the multidecadal cycles of solar magnetic field seem to be causally related to the significant and widespread climate changes at least during the Maunder Minimum.
Synchronized Northern Hemisphere climate change and solar magnetic cycles during the Maunder Minimum
Yamaguchi, Yasuhiko T.; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Miyahara, Hiroko; Sho, Kenjiro; Nakatsuka, Takeshi
2010-01-01
The Maunder Minimum (A.D. 1645–1715) is a useful period to investigate possible sun–climate linkages as sunspots became exceedingly rare and the characteristics of solar cycles were different from those of today. Here, we report annual variations in the oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of tree-ring cellulose in central Japan during the Maunder Minimum. We were able to explore possible sun–climate connections through high-temporal resolution solar activity (radiocarbon contents; Δ14C) and climate (δ18O) isotope records derived from annual tree rings. The tree-ring δ18O record in Japan shows distinct negative δ18O spikes (wetter rainy seasons) coinciding with rapid cooling in Greenland and with decreases in Northern Hemisphere mean temperature at around minima of decadal solar cycles. We have determined that the climate signals in all three records strongly correlate with changes in the polarity of solar dipole magnetic field, suggesting a causal link to galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). These findings are further supported by a comparison between the interannual patterns of tree-ring δ18O record and the GCR flux reconstructed by an ice-core 10Be record. Therefore, the variation of GCR flux associated with the multidecadal cycles of solar magnetic field seem to be causally related to the significant and widespread climate changes at least during the Maunder Minimum. PMID:21076031
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mann, Ian; Murphy, Kyle; Rae, Jonathan; Ozeke, Louis; Milling, David
2013-04-01
Ultra-low frequency (ULF) waves in the Pc4-5 band can be excited in the magnetosphere by the solar wind. Much recent work has shown how ULF wave power is strongly correlated with solar wind speed. However, little attention has been paid the dynamics of ULF wave power penetration onto low L-shells in the inner magnetosphere. We use more than a solar cycle of ULF wave data, derived from ground-based magnetometer networks, to examine this ULF wave power penetration and its dependence on solar wind and geomagnetic activity indices. In time domain data, we show very clearly that dayside ULF wave power, spanning more than 4 orders of magnitude, follows solar wind speed variations throughout the whole solar cycle - during periods of sporadic solar maximum ICMEs, during declining phase fast solar wind streams, and at solar minimum, alike. We also show that time domain ULF wave power increases during magnetic storms activations, and significantly demonstrate that a deeper ULF wave power penetration into the inner magnetosphere occurs during larger negative excursions in Dst. We discuss potential explanations for this low-L ULF wave power penetration, including the role of plasma mass density (such as during plasmaspheric erosion), or ring current ion instabilities during near-Earth ring current penetration. Interestingly, we also show that both ULF wave power and SAMPEX MeV electron flux show a remarkable similarity in their penetration to low-L, which suggests that ULF wave power penetration may be important for understanding and explaining radiation belt dynamics. Moreover, the correlation of ULF wave power with Dst, which peaks at one day lag, suggests the ULF waves might also be important for the inward transport of ions into the ring current. Current ring current models, which exclude long period ULF wave transport, under-estimate the ring current during fast solar wind streams which is consistent with a potential role for ULF waves in ring current energisation. The combination of data from ground arrays such as CARISMA and the contemporaneous operation of the NASA Van Allen Probes (VAP) mission offers an excellent basis for understanding this cross-energy plasma coupling which spans more than 6 orders of magnitude in energy. Explaining the casual connections between plasmas in the plasmasphere (eV), ring current (keV), and radiation belt (MeV), via the intermediaries of plasma waves, is key to understanding inner magnetosphere dynamics. This work has received funding from the European Union under the Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-Space) under grant agreement n 284520 for the MAARBLE (Monitoring, Analyzing and Assessing Radiation Belt Energization and Loss) collaborative research project.
Reconstruction of Solar EUV Flux 1740-2015
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Svalgaard, L.
2015-12-01
Solar Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) radiation creates the conducting E-layer of the ionosphere, mainly by photo ionization of molecular Oxygen. Solar heating of the ionosphere creates thermal winds which by dynamo action induce an electric field driving an electric current having a magnetic effect observable on the ground, as was discovered by G. Graham in 1722. The current rises and sets with the Sun and thus causes a readily observable diurnal variation of the geomagnetic field, allowing us the deduce the conductivity and thus the EUV flux as far back as reliable magnetic data reach. High-quality data go back to the 'Magnetic Crusade' of the 1830s and less reliable, but still usable, data are available for portions of the hundred years before that. J.R. Wolf and, independently, J.-A. Gautier discovered the dependence of the diurnal variation on solar activity, and today we understand and can invert that relationship to construct a reliable record of the EUV flux from the geomagnetic record. We compare that to the F10.7 flux and the sunspot number, and find that the reconstructed EUV flux reproduces the F10.7 flux with great accuracy. On the other hand, it appears that the Relative Sunspot Number as currently defined is beginning to no longer be a faithful representation of solar magnetic activity, at least as measured by the EUV and related indices. The reconstruction suggests that the EUV flux reaches the same low (but non-zero) value at every sunspot minimum (possibly including Grand Minima), representing an invariant 'solar magnetic ground state'.
Reconstruction of Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Flux 1740 - 2015
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Svalgaard, Leif
2016-11-01
Solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation creates the conducting E-layer of the ionosphere, mainly by photo-ionization of molecular oxygen. Solar heating of the ionosphere creates thermal winds, which by dynamo action induce an electric field driving an electric current having a magnetic effect observable on the ground, as was discovered by G. Graham in 1722. The current rises and falls with the Sun, and thus causes a readily observable diurnal variation of the geomagnetic field, allowing us to deduce the conductivity and thus the EUV flux as far back as reliable magnetic data reach. High-quality data go back to the "Magnetic Crusade" of the 1830s and less reliable, but still usable, data are available for portions of the 100 years before that. J.R. Wolf and, independently, J.-A. Gautier discovered the dependence of the diurnal variation on solar activity, and today we understand and can invert that relationship to construct a reliable record of the EUV flux from the geomagnetic record. We compare that to the F_{10.7} flux and the sunspot number, and we find that the reconstructed EUV flux reproduces the F_{10.7} flux with great accuracy. On the other hand, it appears that the Relative Sunspot Number as currently defined is beginning to no longer be a faithful representation of solar magnetic activity, at least as measured by the EUV and related indices. The reconstruction suggests that the EUV flux reaches the same low (but non-zero) value at every sunspot minimum (possibly including Grand Minima), representing an invariant "solar magnetic ground state".
The solar cycle dependence of the location and shape of the Venus bow shock
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Zhang, T.L.; Luhmann, J.G.; Russell, C.T.
1990-09-01
From initial Pioneer Venus observations during the maximum of solar cycle 21 it was evident that the position of the Venus bow shock varies with solar activity. The bow shock radius in the terminator plane changed from 2.4 R{sub v} to 2.1 R{sub v} as solar activity went from maximum to minimum and, as activity has increased in cycle 22, it has increased again. The recent studies of the subsolar region show that the altitude of the nose of the bow shock varies from 1,600 km at solar minimum to 2,200 km at intermediate solar activity in concert with themore » terminator altitude so that the shape remains constant and only the size varies during the solar cycle. Using a gas dynamic model and the observed bow shock location, the authors infer the variation in the size of the effective obstacle during the solar cycle. At solar maximum, the effective obstacle is larger than the ionopause as if a magnetic barrier exists in the inner magnetosheath. This magnetic barrier acts as the effective obstacle deflecting the magnetosheath plasma about 500 km above the surface of Venus. However, at solar minimum the effective obstacle is well below the subsolar ionopause, and some absorption of the solar wind plasma by the Venus neutral atmosphere is suggested by these observations. The dependence of the solar cycle variation of the shock position on the orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field reinforces the idea that planetary ion pickup is important in the interaction of the solar wind with Venus.« less
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
McLaren, Joyce; Davidson, Carolyn; Miller, John
Utilities are proposing changes to residential rate structures to address concerns about lost revenue due to increased adoption of distributed solar generation. An investigation of the impacts of increased fixed charges, minimum bills and residential demand charges on PV and non-PV customer bills suggests that minimum bills more accurately capture utilities' revenue requirement than fixed charges, while not acting as a disincentive to efficiency or negatively impacting low-income customers.
Origin and Properties of Quiet-time 0.11–1.28 MeV Nucleon{sup −1} Heavy-ion Population Near 1 au
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Dayeh, M. A.; Desai, M. I.; Ebert, R. W.
Using measurements from the Advanced Composition Explorer /Ultra-Low Energy Isotope Spectrometer near 1 au, we surveyed the composition and spectra of heavy ions (He-through-Fe) during quiet times from 1998 January 1 to 2015 December 31 at suprathermal energies between ∼0.11 and ∼1.28 MeV nucleon{sup −1}. The selected time period covers the maxima of solar cycles 23 and 24 and the extended solar minimum in between. We find the following. (1) The number of quiet hours in each year correlates well with the sunspot number, year 2009 was the quietest for about 82% of the time. (2) The composition of themore » quiet-time suprathermal heavy-ion population ({sup 3}He, C-through-Fe) correlates well with the level of solar activity, exhibiting SEP-like composition signatures during solar maximum, and CIR- or solar wind-like composition during solar minimum. (3) The heavy-ion (C–Fe) spectra exhibit suprathermal tails at energies of 0.11–0.32 MeV nucleon{sup −1} with power-law spectral indices ranging from 1.40 to 2.97. Fe spectra soften (steepen, i.e., spectral index increases) smoothly with increasing energies compared with Fe, indicating a rollover behavior of Fe at higher energies (0.45–1.28 MeV nucleon{sup −1}). (4) Spectral indices of Fe and O do not appear to exhibit clear solar cycle dependence. (2) and (3) imply that during IP quiet times and at energies above ∼0.1 MeV nucleon{sup −1}, the IP medium is dominated by material from prior solar and interplanetary events. We discuss the implications of these extended observations in the context of the current understanding of the suprathermal ion population near 1 au.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tang, Chaoli; Wei, Yuanyuan; Liu, Dong; Luo, Tao; Dai, Congming; Wei, Heli
2017-12-01
The global distribution and variations of NO infrared radiative flux (NO-IRF) are presented during 2002-2016 in the thermosphere covering 100-280 km altitude based on Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) data set. For investigating the spatial variations of the mutual relationship between NO-IRF and solar activity, the altitude ranges from 100 km to 280 km are divided into 90 altitude bins, and the latitude regions of 83°S-83°N are divided into 16 latitude bins. By processing about 1.8E9 NO-IRF observation values from about 5E6 vertical nighttime profiles recorded in SABER data set, we obtained more than 4.1E8 samples of NO-IRF. The annual-mean values of NO-IRF are then calculated by all available NO-IRF samples within each latitude and altitude bin. Local latitudinal maxima in NO-IRF are found between 120 and 145 km altitude, and the maximum NO-IRF located at polar regions are 3 times more than that of the minimum at equatorial region. The influences of solar and geomagnetic activity on the spatial variations of NO-IRF are investigated. Both the NO-IRF and its response to solar and geomagnetic activity show nearly symmetric distribution between the two hemispheres. It is demonstrated that the observed changes in NO-IRF at altitudes between 100 and 225 km correlate well with the changes in solar activity. The NO-IRF at solar maximum is about 4 times than that at solar minimum, and the current maximum of NO-IRF in 2014 is less than 70% of the prior maximum in 2001. For the first time, the response ranges of the NO-IRF to solar and geomagnetic activity at different altitudes and latitudes are reported.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lennartsson, O. W.; Klumpar, D. M.; Shelley, E. G.; Quinn, J. M.
1994-01-01
Data from energetic ion mass spectrometers on the ISEE 1 and AMPTE/CCE spacecraft are combined with geomagnetic and solar indices to investigate, in a statistical fashion, whether energized O(+) ions of terrestrial origin constitute a source of feedback which triggers or amplifies geomagnetic activity as has been suggested in the literature, by contributing a destabilizing mass increase in the magnetotail current sheet. The ISEE 1 data (0.1-16 keV/e) provide in situ observations of the O(+) concentration in the central plasma sheet, inside of 23 R(sub E), during the rising and maximum phases of solar cycle 21, as well as inner magnetosphere data from same period. The CCE data (0.1-17 keV/e) taken during the subsequent solar minimum all within 9 R(sub E). provide a reference for long-term variations in the magnetosphere O(+) content. Statistical correlations between the ion data and the indices, and between different indices. all point in the same direction: there is probably no feedback specific to the O(+) ions, in spite of the fact that they often contribute most of the ion mass density in the tail current sheet.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, K. F.; Limpasuvan, T. L.; Limpasuvan, V.; Tung, K. K.; Yung, Y. L.
2017-12-01
Observations show that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the 11-year solar cycle perturb the polar vortex via planetary wave convergence at high latitudes, a mechanism first proposed by Holton and Tan in 1980. Their perturbations lead to increases of stratospheric sudden warming events, and hence observable increases in temperature and ozone abundance in the polar vortex, during the easterly phase of QBO and the solar maximum. Here we simulate the changes in the polar atmosphere using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model 4 (WACCM4) with the prescribed QBO and 11-year solar cycle forcing. The simulation is diagnosed in four groups: westerly QBO phase and solar minimum, westerly QBO phase and solar maximum, easterly QBO phase and solar minimum, and easterly QBO phase and solar maximum. The simulated changes in temperature and ozone are compared with satellite observations.
The radial distribution of cosmic rays in the heliosphere at solar maximum
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McDonald, F. B.; Fujii, Z.; Heikkila, B.; Lal, N.
2003-08-01
To obtain a more detailed profile of the radial distribution of galactic (GCRs) and anomalous (ACRs) cosmic rays, a unique time in the 11-year solar activity cycle has been selected - that of solar maximum. At this time of minimum cosmic ray intensity a simple, straight-forward normalization technique has been found that allows the cosmic ray data from IMP 8, Pioneer 10 (P-10) and Voyagers 1 and 2 (V1, V2) to be combined for the solar maxima of cycles 21, 22 and 23. This combined distribution reveals a functional form of the radial gradient that varies as G 0/r with G 0 being constant and relatively small in the inner heliosphere. After a transition region between ˜10 and 20 AU, G 0 increases to a much larger value that remains constant between ˜25 and 82 AU. This implies that at solar maximum the changes that produce the 11-year modulation cycle are mainly occurring in the outer heliosphere between ˜15 AU and the termination shock. These observations are not inconsistent with the concept that Global Merged Interaction. regions (GMIRs) are the principal agent of modulation between solar minimum and solar maximum. There does not appear to be a significant change in the amount of heliosheath modulation occurring between the 1997 solar minimum and the cycle 23 solar maximum.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Riley, Pete; Lionello, Roberto; Linker, Jon A., E-mail: pete@predsci.com, E-mail: lionel@predsci.com, E-mail: linkerj@predsci.com
Observations of the Sun’s corona during the space era have led to a picture of relatively constant, but cyclically varying solar output and structure. Longer-term, more indirect measurements, such as from {sup 10}Be, coupled by other albeit less reliable contemporaneous reports, however, suggest periods of significant departure from this standard. The Maunder Minimum was one such epoch where: (1) sunspots effectively disappeared for long intervals during a 70 yr period; (2) eclipse observations suggested the distinct lack of a visible K-corona but possible appearance of the F-corona; (3) reports of aurora were notably reduced; and (4) cosmic ray intensities atmore » Earth were inferred to be substantially higher. Using a global thermodynamic MHD model, we have constructed a range of possible coronal configurations for the Maunder Minimum period and compared their predictions with these limited observational constraints. We conclude that the most likely state of the corona during—at least—the later portion of the Maunder Minimum was not merely that of the 2008/2009 solar minimum, as has been suggested recently, but rather a state devoid of any large-scale structure, driven by a photospheric field composed of only ephemeral regions, and likely substantially reduced in strength. Moreover, we suggest that the Sun evolved from a 2008/2009-like configuration at the start of the Maunder Minimum toward an ephemeral-only configuration by the end of it, supporting a prediction that we may be on the cusp of a new grand solar minimum.« less
The effect of atmospheric drag on the design of solar-cell power systems for low Earth orbit
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kyser, A. C.
1983-01-01
The feasibility of reducing the atmospheric drag of low orbit solar powered satellites by operating the solar-cell array in a minimum-drag attitude, rather than in the conventional Sun pointing attitude was determined. The weights of the solar array, the energy storage batteries, and the fuel required to overcome the drag of the solar array for a range of design life times in orbit were considered. The drag of the array was estimated by free molecule flow theory, and the system weights were calculated from unit weight estimates for 1990 technology. The trailing, minimum drag system was found to require 80% more solar array area, and 30% more battery capacity, the system weights for reasonable life times were dominated by the thruster fuel requirements.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ogilvie, K. W.; Coplan, M. A.; Roberts, D. A.; Ipavich, F.
2007-08-01
We calculate the cross-spacecraft maximum lagged-cross-correlation coefficients for 2-hour intervals of solar wind speed and density measurements made by the plasma instruments on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and Wind spacecraft over the period from 1996, the minimum of solar cycle 23, through the end of 2005. During this period, SOHO was located at L1, about 200 R E upstream from the Earth, while Wind spent most of the time in the interplanetary medium at distances of more than 100 R E from the Earth. Yearly histograms of the maximum, time-lagged correlation coefficients for both the speed and density are bimodal in shape, suggesting the existence of two distinct solar wind regimes. The larger correlation coefficients we suggest are due to structured solar wind, including discontinuities and shocks, while the smaller are likely due to Alfvénic turbulence. While further work will be required to firmly establish the physical nature of the two populations, the results of the analysis are consistent with a solar wind that consists of turbulence from quiet regions of the Sun interspersed with highly filamentary structures largely convected from regions in the inner solar corona. The bimodal appearance of the distributions is less evident in the solar wind speed than in the density correlations, consistent with the observation that the filamentary structures are convected with nearly constant speed by the time they reach 1 AU. We also find that at solar minimum the fits for the density correlations have smaller high-correlation components than at solar maximum. We interpret this as due to the presence of more relatively uniform Alfvénic regions at solar minimum than at solar maximum.
Could a Hexagonal Sunspot Have Been Observed During the Maunder Minimum?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Carrasco, V. M. S.; Vaquero, J. M.; Gallego, M. C.
2018-03-01
The Maunder Minimum is the period between 1645 and 1715. Its main characteristic is abnormally low and prolonged solar activity. However, some authors have doubted the low level of solar activity during that period by questioning the accuracy and objectivity of the observers. This work presents a particular case of a sunspot observed during the Maunder Minimum with an unusual shape of its umbra and penumbra: a hexagon. This sunspot was observed by Cassini in November 1676, just at the core of the Maunder Minimum. This historical observation is compared with a twin case that occurred recently in May 2016. The conclusion reached is that Cassini's record is another example of the good quality of the observations that were made during the Maunder Minimum, showing the meticulousness of the astronomers of that epoch. This sunspot observation made by Cassini does not support the conclusions of Zolotova and Ponyavin ( Astrophys. J. 800, 42, 2015) that professional astronomers in the seventeenth century only registered round sunspots. Finally, a discussion is given of the importance of this kind of unusual sunspot record for a better assessment of the true level of solar activity in the Maunder Minimum.
Properties of the suprathermal heavy ion population near 1 AU during solar cycles 23 and 24
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Dayeh, Maher A., E-mail: maldayeh@swri.edu; Ebert, Robert W.; Desai, Mihir I.
2016-03-25
Using measurements from the Advanced Composition Explorer/Ultra-Low Energy Isotope Spectrometer (ACE/ULEIS) near 1 AU, we surveyed the composition and spectra of heavy ions (He-through-Fe) during interplanetary quiet times from 1998 January 1 to 2014 December 31 at suprathermal energies between ∼0.11 and ∼1.28 MeV nucleon{sup −1}. The selected time period covers the maxima of solar cycles 23 and 24 and the extended solar minimum in between. We find the following: (1) The number of quiet-hours in each year correlates well with the sunspot number, year 2009 was the quietest for about 90% of the time; (2) The composition of the quiet-timemore » suprathermal heavy ion population ({sup 3}He, C-through-O, and Fe) correlates well with the level of solar activity, exhibiting SEP-like composition signatures during solar maximum, and CIR- or solar wind-like composition during solar minimum; (3) The heavy ion spectra at ∼0.11-0.32 MeV nucleon{sup −1} exhibit suprathermal tails with power-law spectral indices ranging from 1.4 to 2.7. (4) Fe spectral indices get softer (steeper) from solar minimum of cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 maximum. These results imply that during IP quiet times and at energies above ∼0.1 MeV nucleon{sup −1}, the IP medium is dominated by material from prior solar and interplanetary events.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rigon Silva, Willian; Schuch, Nelson Jorge; Guimarães Dutra, Severino Luiz; Babulal Trivedi, Nalin; Claudir da Silva, Andirlei; Souza Savian, Fernando; Ronan Coelho Stekel, Tardelli; de Siqueira, Josemar; Espindola Antunes, Cassio
The occurrence and intensity of the geomagnetic pulsations Pc-5 (2-7 mHz) and its relationship with the solar cycle in the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly -SAMA is presented. The study of geomagnetic pulsations is important to help the understanding of the physical processes that occurs in the magnetosphere region and help to predict geomagnetic storms. The fluxgate mag-netometers H, D and Z, three axis geomagnetic field data from the Southern Space Observatory -SSO/CRS/INPE -MCT, São Martinho da Serra (29.42° S, 53.87° W, 480m a.s.l.), RS, Brasil, a were analyzed and correlated with the solar wind parameters (speed, density and temperature) from the ACE and SOHO satellites. A digital filtering to enhance the 2-7 mHz geomagnetic pulsations was used. Five quiet days and five perturbed days in the solar minimum and in the solar maximum were selected for this analysis. The days were chosen based on the IAGA definition and on the Bartels Musical Diagrams (Kp index) for 2001 (solar maximum) and 2008 (solar minimum). The biggest Pc-5 amplitude averages differences between the H-component is 78,35 nT for the perturbed days and 1,60nT for the quiet days during the solar maximum. For perturbed days the average amplitude during the solar minimum is 8,32 nT, confirming a direct solar cycle influence in the geomagnetic pulsations intensity for long periods.
Role of ULF Waves in Radiation Belt and Ring Current Dynamics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mann, I. R.; Murphy, K. R.; Rae, I. J.; Ozeke, L.; Milling, D. K.
2013-12-01
Ultra-low frequency (ULF) waves in the Pc4-5 band can be excited in the magnetosphere by the solar wind. Much recent work has shown how ULF wave power is strongly correlated with solar wind speed. However, little attention has been paid the dynamics of ULF wave power penetration onto low L-shells in the inner magnetosphere. We use more than a solar cycle of ULF wave data, derived from ground-based magnetometer networks, to examine this ULF wave power penetration and its dependence on solar wind and geomagnetic activity indices. In time domain data, we show very clearly that dayside ULF wave power, spanning more than 4 orders of magnitude, follows solar wind speed variations throughout the whole solar cycle - during periods of sporadic solar maximum ICMEs, during declining phase fast solar wind streams, and at solar minimum, alike. We also show that time domain ULF wave power increases during magnetic storms activations, and significantly demonstrate that a deeper ULF wave power penetration into the inner magnetosphere occurs during larger negative excursions in Dst. We discuss potential explanations for this low-L ULF wave power penetration, including the role of plasma mass density (such as during plasmaspheric erosion), or ring current ion instabilities during near-Earth ring current penetration. Interestingly, we also show that both ULF wave power and SAMPEX MeV electron flux show a remarkable similarity in their penetration to low-L, which suggests that ULF wave power penetration may be important for understanding and explaining radiation belt dynamics. Moreover, the correlation of ULF wave power with Dst, which peaks at one day lag, suggests the ULF waves might also be important for the inward transport of ions into the ring current. Current ring current models, which exclude long period ULF wave transport, under-estimate the ring current during fast solar wind streams which is consistent with a potential role for ULF waves in ring current energisation. The combination of data from ground arrays such as CARISMA and the contemporaneous operation of the NASA Van Allen Probes (VAP) mission offers an excellent basis for understanding this cross-energy plasma coupling which spans more than 6 orders of magnitude in energy. Explaining the casual connections between plasmas in the plasmasphere (eV), ring current (keV), and radiation belt (MeV), via the intermediaries of plasma waves, is key to understanding inner magnetosphere dynamics. This work has received funding from the European Union under the Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-Space) under grant agreement n 284520 for the MAARBLE (Monitoring, Analyzing and Assessing Radiation Belt Energization and Loss) collaborative research project.
Changes in atmospheric circulation between solar maximum and minimum conditions in winter and summer
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lee, Jae Nyung
2008-10-01
Statistically significant climate responses to the solar variability are found in Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and in the tropical circulation. This study is based on the statistical analysis of numerical simulations with ModelE version of the chemistry coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. The low frequency large scale variability of the winter and summer circulation is described by the NAM, the leading Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of geopotential heights. The newly defined seasonal annular modes and its dynamical significance in the stratosphere and troposphere in the GISS ModelE is shown and compared with those in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In the stratosphere, the summer NAM obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as well as from the ModelE simulations has the same sign throughout the northern hemisphere, but shows greater variability at low latitudes. The patterns in both analyses are consistent with the interpretation that low NAM conditions represent an enhancement of the seasonal difference between the summer and the annual averages of geopotential height, temperature and velocity distributions, while the reverse holds for high NAM conditions. Composite analysis of high and low NAM cases in both the model and observation suggests that the summer stratosphere is more "summer-like" when the solar activity is near a maximum. This means that the zonal easterly wind flow is stronger and the temperature is higher than normal. Thus increased irradiance favors a low summer NAM. A quantitative comparison of the anti-correlation between the NAM and the solar forcing is presented in the model and in the observation, both of which show lower/higher NAM index in solar maximum/minimum conditions. The summer NAM in the troposphere obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has a dipolar zonal structure with maximum variability over the Asian monsoon region. The corresponding EOF in ModelE has a qualitatively similar structure but with less variability in the Asian monsoon region which is displaced eastward of its observed position. In both the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the GISS GCM, the negative anomalies associated with the NAM in the Euro-Atlantic and Aleutian island regions are enhanced in the solar minimum conditions, though the results are not statistically significant. The difference of the downward propagation of NAM between solar maximum and solar minimum is shown with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. For the winter NAM, a much greater fraction of stratospheric circulation perturbations penetrate to the surface in solar maximum conditions than in minimum conditions. This difference is more striking when the zonal wind direction in the tropics is from the west: when equatorial 50 hPa winds are from the west, no stratospheric signals reach the surface under solar minimum conditions, while over 50 percent reach the surface under solar maximum conditions. This work also studies the response of the tropical circulation to the solar forcing in combination with different atmospheric compositions and with different ocean modules. Four model experiments have been designed to investigate the role of solar forcing in the tropical circulation: one with the present day (PD) greenhouse gases and aerosol conditions, one with the preindustrial (PI) conditions, one with the doubled minimum solar forcing, and finally one with the hybrid-isopycnic ocean model (HYCOM). The response patterns in the tropical humidity and in the vertical motion due to solar forcing are season dependent and spatially heterogeneous. The tropical humidity response from the model experiments are compared with the corresponding differences obtained from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis with all years and with non-ENSO years. Both the model and the reanalysis consistently show that the specific humidity is significantly greater in the convective region in solar maximum compared to solar minimum for January and July. The column integrated humidity in all the model experiments with different composition, different solar forcing, and different ocean module, increased with solar forcing in the tropical band over the Atlantic sector in both seasons. The model's humidity response pattern is generally consistent with the paleoclimate records indicating increased precipitation near the equator that decreases at subtropical to middle latitudes with increased solar output. The differences in the zonally averaged vertical velocities indicate that the ascending branch of the Hadley cell is enhanced and shifted northward, and that the descending branch is weakened and shifted northward in the solar MAX simulation in January. The downward branch of the Hadley cell is strengthened in MAX in July. A possible link of climate response in midlatitudes to solar forcing is also presented by showing changes in zonal mean wind, changes in temperature gradient, and changes in E-P flux.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hoeksema, J. T.
1986-01-01
Using photospheric magnetic field observations obtained at the Stanford Wilcox Solar Observatory, results from a potential field model for the present solar cycle are given, and qualitative predictions of the IMF that Ulysses may encounter are presented. Results indicate that the IMF consists of large regions of opposite polarity separated by a neutral sheet (NS) (extended to at least 50 deg) and a four-sector structure near solar minimum (produced by small quadripolar NS warps). The latitudinal extent of the NS increases following minimum and the structure near maximum includes multiple NSs, while a simplified IMF is found during the declining phase.
Global solar wind variations over the last four centuries.
Owens, M J; Lockwood, M; Riley, P
2017-01-31
The most recent "grand minimum" of solar activity, the Maunder minimum (MM, 1650-1710), is of great interest both for understanding the solar dynamo and providing insight into possible future heliospheric conditions. Here, we use nearly 30 years of output from a data-constrained magnetohydrodynamic model of the solar corona to calibrate heliospheric reconstructions based solely on sunspot observations. Using these empirical relations, we produce the first quantitative estimate of global solar wind variations over the last 400 years. Relative to the modern era, the MM shows a factor 2 reduction in near-Earth heliospheric magnetic field strength and solar wind speed, and up to a factor 4 increase in solar wind Mach number. Thus solar wind energy input into the Earth's magnetosphere was reduced, resulting in a more Jupiter-like system, in agreement with the dearth of auroral reports from the time. The global heliosphere was both smaller and more symmetric under MM conditions, which has implications for the interpretation of cosmogenic radionuclide data and resulting total solar irradiance estimates during grand minima.
Modeling Climate Responses to Spectral Solar Forcing on Centennial and Decadal Time Scales
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wen, G.; Cahalan, R.; Rind, D.; Jonas, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Harder, J.
2012-01-01
We report a series of experiments to explore clima responses to two types of solar spectral forcing on decadal and centennial time scales - one based on prior reconstructions, and another implied by recent observations from the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral 1rradiance Monitor). We apply these forcings to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global/Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM). that couples atmosphere with ocean, and has a model top near the mesopause, allowing us to examine the full response to the two solar forcing scenarios. We show different climate responses to the two solar forCing scenarios on decadal time scales and also trends on centennial time scales. Differences between solar maximum and solar minimum conditions are highlighted, including impacts of the time lagged reSponse of the lower atmosphere and ocean. This contrasts with studies that assume separate equilibrium conditions at solar maximum and minimum. We discuss model feedback mechanisms involved in the solar forced climate variations.
Irradiation and measurements of fluorinated ethylene-propylene-A on silicon solar cells in vacuum
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Marsik, S. J.; Broder, J. D.
1975-01-01
Silicon monoxide (SiO) coated silicon solar cells covered with fluorinated ethylene-propylene-A (FEP-A) were irradiated by 1-MeV electrons in vacuum. The effect of irradiation on the light transmittance of FEP-A was checked by measuring the short-circuit current of the cells while in vacuum after each dose increment, immediately after the irradiation, and again after a minimum elapsed time of 16 hr. The results indicated no apparent loss in transmission due to irradiation of FEP-A and no delamination from the SiO surface while the cells were in vacuum, but embrittlement of FEP-A occurred at the accumulated dose.
Comparison of solar activity during last two minima on turn of Activity Cycles 22/23 and 23/24
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gryciuk, Magdalena; Gburek, Szymon; Siarkowski, Marek; Podgorski, Piotr; Sylwester, Janusz; Farnik, Frantisek
2013-07-01
The subject of our work is the review and comparison of solar activity during the last two solar minima that occurred between recent activity cycles. We use the soft X-ray global solar corona observations covering the two nine-months long time intervals in 1997/98 and 2009. Data from RF15-I multichannel photometer are used for the penultimate minimum. For the last unusually deep and prolonged solar activity minimum in 2009 the data from SphinX spectrophotometer are used. Comparison of measurements from both minima takes place in the overlapping energy range 2-15 keV. We focus on the active region formation, evolution and flaring productivity during respective minima.
Broad Plasma Decreases in the Equatorial Ionosphere
2009-08-06
REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-01-0188 The public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to...currently valid OMB control number PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS. 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 06-08-2009 2. REPORT TYPE REPRINT...June solstices; during (2) solar minimum years); (3) in the vicinity of the SAA. Neutral densities were examined during periods when BPDs were
The Peculiar Solar Minimum 23/24 Revealed by the Microwave Butterfly Diagram
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk; Yashiro, Seiji; Makela, Pertti; Shibasaki, Kiyoto; Hathaway, David
2010-01-01
The diminished polar magnetic field strength during the minimum between cycles 23 and 24 is also reflected in the thermal radio emission originating from the polar chromosphere. During solar minima, the polar corona has extended coronal holes containing intense unipolar flux. In microwave images, the coronal holes appear bright, with a brightness enhancement of 500 to 2000 K with respect to the quiet Sun. The brightness enhancement corresponds to the upper chromosphere, where the plasma temperature is approx.10000 K. We constructed a microwave butterfly diagram using the synoptic images obtained by the Nobeyama radioheliograph (NoRH) showing the evolution of the polar and low latitude brightness temperature. While the polar brightness reveals the chromospheric conditions, the low latitude brightness is attributed to active regions in the corona. When we compared the microwave butterfly diagram with the magnetic butterfly diagram, we found a good correlation between the microwave brightness enhancement and the polar field strength. The microwave butterfly diagram covers part of solar cycle 22, whole of cycle 23, and part of cycle 24, thus enabling comparison between the cycle 23/24 and cycle 22/23 minima. The microwave brightness during the cycle 23/24 minimum was found to be lower than that during the cycle 22/23 minimum by approx.250 K. The reduced brightness temperature is consistent with the reduced polar field strength during the cycle 23/24 minimum seen in the magnetic butterfly diagram. We suggest that the microwave brightness at the solar poles is a good indicator of the speed of the solar wind sampled by Ulysses at high latitudes..
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Denton, R. E.; Wang, Y.; Webb, P. A.; Tengdin, P. M.; Goldstein, J.; Redfern, J. A.; Reinisch, B. W.
2012-03-01
Using measurements of the electron density ne found from passive radio wave observations by the IMAGE spacecraft RPI instrument on consecutive passes through the magnetosphere, we calculate the long-term (>1 day) refilling rate of equatorial electron density dne,eq/dt from L = 2 to 9. Our events did not exhibit saturation, probably because our data set did not include a deep solar minimum and because saturation is an unusual occurrence, especially outside of solar minimum. The median rate in cm-3/day can be modeled with log10(dne,eq/dt) = 2.22 - 0.006L - 0.0347L2, while the third quartile rate can be modeled with log10(dne,eq/dt) = 3.39 - 0.353L, and the mean rate can be modeled as log10(dne,eq/dt) = 2.74 - 0.269L. These statistical values are found from the ensemble of all observed rates at each L value, including negative rates (decreases in density due to azimuthal structure or radial motion or for other reasons), in order to characterize the typical behavior. The first quartile rates are usually negative for L < 4.7 and close to zero for larger L values. Our rates are roughly consistent with previous observations of ion refilling at geostationary orbit. Most previous studies of refilling found larger refilling rates, but many of these examined a single event which may have exhibited unusually rapid refilling. Comparing refilling rates at solar maximum to those at solar minimum, we found that the refilling rate is larger at solar maximum for small L < 4, about the same at solar maximum and solar minimum for L = 4.2 to 5.8, and is larger at solar minimum for large L > 5.8 such as at geostationary orbit (L ˜ 6.8) (at least to L of about 8). These results agree with previous results for ion refilling at geostationary orbit, may agree with previous results at lower L, and are consistent with some trends for ionospheric density.
QBO of temperature in mesopause and lower thermosphere caused by solar activity variations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shefov, N. N.; Semenov, A. I.
2003-04-01
On the basis of the data of the emission (hydroxyl, sodium and atomic oxygen 557.7 nm) and radiophysical (87-107 km) measurements some regularities of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the atmospheric temperature at heights of the mesopause and lower thermosphere are investigated. It is shown, that they are closely connected with quasi-biennial variations of solar activity and form within the limits of a cycle of solar activity the fading wave train of oscillations. Such behaviour of the wave train can be adequately described by the Airy function. As a result of the analysis of characteristics of QBO of solar activity during 17-23rd cycles it is shown, that to each 11-years cycle correspond its wave train of QBO. Amplitudes and periods of this wave train decrease during a cycle, i.e. it represents Not harmonious oscillation but it is a cyclic aperiodic oscillation (CAO). Therefore usual methods of Fourier analysis used earlier did not result in the same values of the period. The wave train of the current cycle begins at the end of previous and some time together with the subsequent cycle proceeds. Thus, the time sequence of activity during solar cycle represents superposition of three wave trains. Period of CAO in the beginning of a cycle has ~ 38 months and decreases to the end of a cycle up to ~ 21 months. The first wide negative minimum of Airy function describing of the wave train of CAO corresponds to solar activity minimum in the 11-year cycle. The time scale of the wave train varies from one cycle to another. Full duration of individual wave train is ~ 22 years. Owing to a mutual interference of the consecutive wave trains in the 11-year cycles the observable variations of solar activity are not identical. Structure of CAO obviously displays magnetohydrodynamic processes inside the Sun. This work was supported by the Grant No. 2274 of ISTC.
A test of source-surface model predictions of heliospheric current sheet inclination
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Burton, M. E.; Crooker, N. U.; Siscoe, G. L.; Smith, E. J.
1994-01-01
The orientation of the heliospheric current sheet predicted from a source surface model is compared with the orientation determined from minimum-variance analysis of International Sun-Earth Explorer (ISEE) 3 magnetic field data at 1 AU near solar maximum. Of the 37 cases analyzed, 28 have minimum variance normals that lie orthogonal to the predicted Parker spiral direction. For these cases, the correlation coefficient between the predicted and measured inclinations is 0.6. However, for the subset of 14 cases for which transient signatures (either interplanetary shocks or bidirectional electrons) are absent, the agreement in inclinations improves dramatically, with a correlation coefficient of 0.96. These results validate not only the use of the source surface model as a predictor but also the previously questioned usefulness of minimum variance analysis across complex sector boundaries. In addition, the results imply that interplanetary dynamics have little effect on current sheet inclination at 1 AU. The dependence of the correlation on transient occurrence suggests that the leading edge of a coronal mass ejection (CME), where transient signatures are detected, disrupts the heliospheric current sheet but that the sheet re-forms between the trailing legs of the CME. In this way the global structure of the heliosphere, reflected both in the source surface maps and in the interplanetary sector structure, can be maintained even when the CME occurrence rate is high.
Solar system plasma turbulence and intermittency at the maximum and minimum of the solar cycle
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Echim, Marius M.
2015-04-01
We report on the analysis of turbulence properties of the solar wind and the planetary magnetosheaths of Venus and Earth at solar maximum (2000-2001) and minimum (1997-1998, 2007-2008) as revealed by Ulysses, Cluster and Venus Express. We provide an overview of the spectral and scaling properties of turbulence during the targeted time periods. A selection of Ulysses data reveals the spectral properties of the "pure" slow and "pure" fast solar wind turbulence, out of the ecliptic, at radial distances ranging between 1.3 and 5.4 AU. Venus Express and Cluster data contribute to the description of the solar wind turbulence at 0.72 AU and respectively 1 AU. The spectral analysis of magnetosheath data from Venus Express and Cluster reveals the properties of turbulence to be compared to solar wind turbulence. The statistical properties of plasma and magnetic field fluctuations exhibit features linked with intermittency revealed as non-Gaussian Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) and scale dependent kurtosis. PDFs are computed for the solar wind data from Ulysses, Venus Express and Cluster, and complement the analysis based on second order corrrelation function. The same strategy is applied to study the intermittency of the magnetosheath turbulence of Venus and the Earth. The results of our thorough survey of data bases are organized in catalogues available on line: PSD and PDFs results are stored in three solar wind data bases (one for the solar maximum, 1999-2001, two for the solar minimum, 1997-1998 and respectively, 2007-2008), and two planetary databases (one for the solar maximum, 2000-2001, that includes PSDs and PDFs obtained in the terrestrial magnetosheath, and one for the solar minimum, 2007-2008, that includes PSDs and PDFs obtained in the terrestrial and Venus magnetosheaths). As an example of higher order analysis resulting from these results we discuss the similarities and differences between fast and slow wind turbulence and intermittency. We also discuss how the exploitation of data bases produced by the FP7 project STORM contribute to developing a (virtual) laboratory for studying solar system plasma turbulence and intermittency. Research supported by the European FP7 Programme (grant agreement 313038/STORM), and a national grant CNCS -UEFISCDI, project number PN-II-ID-PCE-2012-4-0418.
COMPARISON OF CORONAL EXTRAPOLATION METHODS FOR CYCLE 24 USING HMI DATA
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Arden, William M.; Norton, Aimee A.; Sun, Xudong
2016-05-20
Two extrapolation models of the solar coronal magnetic field are compared using magnetogram data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory /Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager instrument. The two models, a horizontal current–current sheet–source surface (HCCSSS) model and a potential field–source surface (PFSS) model, differ in their treatment of coronal currents. Each model has its own critical variable, respectively, the radius of a cusp surface and a source surface, and it is found that adjusting these heights over the period studied allows for a better fit between the models and the solar open flux at 1 au as calculated from the Interplanetary Magneticmore » Field (IMF). The HCCSSS model provides the better fit for the overall period from 2010 November to 2015 May as well as for two subsets of the period: the minimum/rising part of the solar cycle and the recently identified peak in the IMF from mid-2014 to mid-2015 just after solar maximum. It is found that an HCCSSS cusp surface height of 1.7 R {sub ⊙} provides the best fit to the IMF for the overall period, while 1.7 and 1.9 R {sub ⊙} give the best fits for the two subsets. The corresponding values for the PFSS source surface height are 2.1, 2.2, and 2.0 R {sub ⊙} respectively. This means that the HCCSSS cusp surface rises as the solar cycle progresses while the PFSS source surface falls.« less
Current Sheets in the Corona and the Complexity of Slow Wind
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Antiochos, Spiro
2010-01-01
The origin of the slow solar wind has long been one of the most important problems in solar/heliospheric physics. Two observational constraints make this problem especially challenging. First, the slow wind has the composition of the closed-field corona, unlike the fast wind that originates on open field lines. Second, the slow wind has substantial angular extent, of order 30 degrees, which is much larger than the widths observed for streamer stalks or the widths expected theoretically for a dynamic heliospheric current sheet. We propose that the slow wind originates from an intricate network of narrow (possibly singular) open-field corridors that emanate from the polar coronal hole regions. Using topological arguments, we show that these corridors must be ubiquitous in the solar corona. The total solar eclipse in August 2008, near the lowest point of cycle 23 affords an ideal opportunity to test this theory by using the ultra-high resolution Predictive Science's (PSI) eclipse model for the corona and wind. Analysis of the PSI eclipse model demonstrates that the extent and scales of the open-field corridors can account for both the angular width of the slow wind and its closed-field composition. We discuss the implications of our slow wind theory for the structure of the corona and heliosphere at solar minimum and describe further observational and theoretical tests.
Cosmic ray modulation and radiation dose of aircrews during the solar cycle 24/25
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Miyake, Shoko; Kataoka, Ryuho; Sato, Tatsuhiko
2017-04-01
Weak solar activity and high cosmic ray flux during the coming solar cycle are qualitatively anticipated by the recent observations that show the decline in the solar activity levels. We predict the cosmic ray modulation and resultant radiation exposure at flight altitude by using the time-dependent and three-dimensional model of the cosmic ray modulation. Our galactic cosmic ray (GCR) model is based on the variations of the solar wind speed, the strength of the heliospheric magnetic field, and the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. We reproduce the 22 year variation of the cosmic ray modulation from 1980 to 2015 taking into account the gradient-curvature drift motion of GCRs. The energy spectra of GCR protons obtained by our model show good agreement with the observations by the Balloon-borne Experiment with a Superconducting magnetic rigidity Spectrometer (BESS) and the Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) except for a discrepancy at the solar maximum. Five-year annual radiation dose around the solar minimum at the solar cycle 24/25 will be approximately 19% higher than that in the last cycle. This is caused by the charge sign dependence of the cosmic ray modulation, such as the flattop profiles in a positive polarity.
Variability of fractal dimension of solar radio flux
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bhatt, Hitaishi; Sharma, Som Kumar; Trivedi, Rupal; Vats, Hari Om
2018-04-01
In the present communication, the variation of the fractal dimension of solar radio flux is reported. Solar radio flux observations on a day to day basis at 410, 1415, 2695, 4995, and 8800 MHz are used in this study. The data were recorded at Learmonth Solar Observatory, Australia from 1988 to 2009 covering an epoch of two solar activity cycles (22 yr). The fractal dimension is calculated for the listed frequencies for this period. The fractal dimension, being a measure of randomness, represents variability of solar radio flux at shorter time-scales. The contour plot of fractal dimension on a grid of years versus radio frequency suggests high correlation with solar activity. Fractal dimension increases with increasing frequency suggests randomness increases towards the inner corona. This study also shows that the low frequency is more affected by solar activity (at low frequency fractal dimension difference between solar maximum and solar minimum is 0.42) whereas, the higher frequency is less affected by solar activity (here fractal dimension difference between solar maximum and solar minimum is 0.07). A good positive correlation is found between fractal dimension averaged over all frequencies and yearly averaged sunspot number (Pearson's coefficient is 0.87).
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Buzulukova, N.; Fok, M.-C.; Goldstein, J.; Valek, P.; McComas, D. J.; Brandt, P. C.
2010-01-01
We present a comparative study of ring current dynamics during strong and moderate storms. The ring current during the strong storm is studied with IMAGE/HENA data near the solar cycle maximum in 2000. The ring current during the moderate storm is studied using energetic neutral atom (ENA) data from the Two Wide-Angle Imaging Neutral- Atom Spectrometers (TWINS) mission during the solar minimum in 2008. For both storms, the local time distributions of ENA emissions show signatures of postmidnight enhancement (PME) during the main phases. To model the ring current and ENA emissions, we use the Comprehensive Ring Current Model (CRCM). CRCM results show that the main-phase ring current pressure peaks in the premidnight-dusk sector, while the most intense CRCM-simulated ENA emissions show PME signatures. We analyze two factors to explain this difference: the dependence of charge-exchange cross section on energy and pitch angle distributions of ring current. We find that the IMF By effect (twisting of the convection pattern due to By) is not needed to form the PME. Additionally, the PME is more pronounced for the strong storm, although relative shielding and hence electric field skewing is well developed for both events.
Luhmann, Janet G.; Petrie, Gordon; Riley, Pete
2012-01-01
The solar wind was originally envisioned using a simple dipolar corona/polar coronal hole sources picture, but modern observations and models, together with the recent unusual solar cycle minimum, have demonstrated the limitations of this picture. The solar surface fields in both polar and low-to-mid-latitude active region zones routinely produce coronal magnetic fields and related solar wind sources much more complex than a dipole. This makes low-to-mid latitude coronal holes and their associated streamer boundaries major contributors to what is observed in the ecliptic and affects the Earth. In this paper we use magnetogram-based coronal field models to describe the conditions that prevailed in the corona from the decline of cycle 23 into the rising phase of cycle 24. The results emphasize the need for adopting new views of what is ‘typical’ solar wind, even when the Sun is relatively inactive. PMID:25685422
Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR
2011-04-01
... certification program for solar water heating system. 200.950 Section 200.950 Housing and Urban Development... solar water heating system. (a) Applicable standards. (1) All solar water heating systems shall be...) Document OG-300-93, Operating Guidelines and Minimum Standards for Certifying Solar Water Heating Systems...
Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR
2010-04-01
... certification program for solar water heating system. 200.950 Section 200.950 Housing and Urban Development... solar water heating system. (a) Applicable standards. (1) All solar water heating systems shall be...) Document OG-300-93, Operating Guidelines and Minimum Standards for Certifying Solar Water Heating Systems...
Solar particle event predictions for manned Mars missions
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Heckman, Gary
1986-01-01
Manned space missions to Mars require consideration of the effects of high radiation doses produced by solar particle events (SPE). Without some provision for protection, the radiation doses from such events can exceed standards for maximum exposure and may be life threatening. Several alternative ways of providing protection require a capability for predicting SPE in time to take some protective actions. The SPE may occur at any time during the eleven year solar cycle so that two year missions cannot be scheduled to insure avoiding them although they are less likely to occur at solar minimum. The present forecasts are sufficiently accurate to use for setting alert modes but are not accurate enough to make yes/no decisions that have major mission operational impacts. Forecasts made for one to two year periods can only be done as probabilistic forecasts where there is a chance of SPE occurring. These are current capabilities but are not likely to change significantly by the year 2000 with the exception of some improvement in the one to ten day forecasts. The effects of SPE are concentrated in solar longitudes near where their parent solar flares occur, which will require a manned Mars mission to carry its own small solar telescope to monitor the development of potentially dangerous solar activity. The preferred telescope complement includes a solar X-ray imager, a hydrogen-alpha scanner, and a solar magnetograph.
Bashful ballerina: The asymmetric Sun viewed from the heliosphere
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mursula, K.
Long-term observations of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) at 1 AU have depicted interesting systematic hemispheric and longitudinal asymmetries that have far-reaching implications for the understanding of solar magnetism. It has recently been found that the HMF sector that is prevalent in the northern solar hemisphere dominates the observed HMF sector occurrence for a few years in the late declining to minimum phase of the solar cycle. This leads to a persistent southward shift or coning of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) at these times, which has been described by the concept of the bashful ballerina. This result was later verified by direct measurements of the solar magnetic field which showed that the average field intensity was smaller and the corresponding area larger in the northern (heliographic) hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere during roughly 3 years in the late declining to minimum phase of the cycle. During these years when the HCS was shifted southwards, the solar quadrupole moment was found to be systematically non-zero and oppositely oriented with respect to the dipole moment. Long-term observations of the geomagnetic field can yield information on the HMF sector structure in the pre-satellite era, showing that the ballerina was bashful since 1930s. In addition to the hemispheric asymmetries, the Sun is systematically asymmetric in longitude. It has been shown that the global HMF has persistent active longitudes whose dominance depicts an oscillation with a period of about 3.2 years. Accordingly, the bashful ballerina takes three such steps per activity cycle, thus dancing in waltz tempo. Stellar observations show that this is a general pattern for sun-like cool stars. We describe these phenomena and discuss their implications.
The Minimum-Mass Surface Density of the Solar Nebula using the Disk Evolution Equation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Davis, Sanford S.
2005-01-01
The Hayashi minimum-mass power law representation of the pre-solar nebula (Hayashi 1981, Prog. Theo. Phys.70,35) is revisited using analytic solutions of the disk evolution equation. A new cumulative-planetary-mass-model (an integrated form of the surface density) is shown to predict a smoother surface density compared with methods based on direct estimates of surface density from planetary data. First, a best-fit transcendental function is applied directly to the cumulative planetary mass data with the surface density obtained by direct differentiation. Next a solution to the time-dependent disk evolution equation is parametrically adapted to the planetary data. The latter model indicates a decay rate of r -1/2 in the inner disk followed by a rapid decay which results in a sharper outer boundary than predicted by the minimum mass model. The model is shown to be a good approximation to the finite-size early Solar Nebula and by extension to extra solar protoplanetary disks.
Solar radiation and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Japan.
Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito
2017-11-01
Although several studies have estimated the effects of temperature on mortality and morbidity, little is known regarding the burden of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) attributable to solar radiation. We obtained data for all cases of OHCA and meteorological data reported between 2011 and 2014 in 3 Japanese prefectures: Hokkaido, Ibaraki, and Fukuoka. We first examined the relationship between daily solar radiation and OHCA risk for each prefecture using time-varying distributed lag non-linear models and then pooled the results in a multivariate random-effects meta-analysis. The attributable fractions of OHCA were calculated for low and high solar radiation, defined as solar radiation below and above the minimum morbidity solar radiation, respectively. The minimum morbidity solar radiation was defined as the specific solar radiation associated with the lowest morbidity risk. A total of 49,892 cases of OHCA occurred during the study period. The minimum morbidity solar radiation for each prefecture was the 100th percentile (72.5 MJ/m 2 ) in Hokkaido, the 83rd percentile (59.7 MJ/m 2 ) in Ibaraki, and the 70th percentile (53.8 MJ/m 2 ) in Fukuoka. Overall, 20.00% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 10.97-27.04) of the OHCA cases were attributable to daily solar radiation. The attributable fraction for low solar radiation was 19.50% (95% eCI: 10.00-26.92), whereas that for high solar radiation was 0.50% (95% eCI: -0.07-1.01). Low solar radiation was associated with a substantial attributable risk for OHCA. Our findings suggest that public health efforts to reduce OHCA burden should consider the solar radiation level. Large prospective studies with longitudinal collection of individual data is required to more conclusively assess the impact of solar radiation on OHCA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A new data assimilation engine for physics-based thermospheric density models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sutton, E. K.; Henney, C. J.; Hock-Mysliwiec, R.
2017-12-01
The successful assimilation of data into physics-based coupled Ionosphere-Thermosphere models requires rethinking the filtering techniques currently employed in fields such as tropospheric weather modeling. In the realm of Ionospheric-Thermospheric modeling, the estimation of system drivers is a critical component of any reliable data assimilation technique. How to best estimate and apply these drivers, however, remains an open question and active area of research. The recently developed method of Iterative Re-Initialization, Driver Estimation and Assimilation (IRIDEA) accounts for the driver/response time-delay characteristics of the Ionosphere-Thermosphere system relative to satellite accelerometer observations. Results from two near year-long simulations are shown: (1) from a period of elevated solar and geomagnetic activity during 2003, and (2) from a solar minimum period during 2007. This talk will highlight the challenges and successes of implementing a technique suited for both solar min and max, as well as expectations for improving neutral density forecasts.
An electric noise component with density 1/f identified on ISEE 3
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hoang, S.; Steinberg, J. L.; Couturier, P.; Feldman, W. C.
1982-01-01
The properties of the 1/f noise detected at the terminals of ISEE 3 antennas are described and related to the solar wind parameters. The 1/f noise was observed with the radio receivers of the three-dimensional radio mapping experiment using the S and Z dipole antennas. The noise spectra contained a negative spectral index component at frequencies lower than 0.7 of the plasma frequency, and 5-10 times the predicted thermal noise for the Z antenna. S-antenna measurements of the 1/f component revealed it to be deeply spin modulated with a minimum electric field in the direction of the solar wind. Modulation increases with increasing frequency, becomes negligible when the 1/f intensity is negligible with respect to the thermal noise, and increases with solar wind velocity. The possibilities that the noise is due either to waves or currents are discussed.
Variation of the Solar He I 10830 A Line: 1977 - 1980
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Harvey, J. W.
1981-01-01
Daily measurements of the equivalent width of the 10830 A He I line integrated over the visible disk show: (1) an increase from about 32 to about 74 mA in the monthly mean values from the minimum to the maximum of the current solar cycle; (2) the monthly mean values are more smoothly varying than most other indices of solar activity; (3) rotation modulates the daily values in a highly variable manner with amplitudes as large as plus or minus 20%; (4) the apparent synodic rotation period is 29 days rather than the expected 27 days associated with active regions; (5) despite great differences in the appearance of the sun in 3933 A Ca I and 10830 A He I, the central intensity of the former correlates with the equivalent width of the latter with a value r = 0.97.
CHARACTERISTICS OF SOLAR MERIDIONAL FLOWS DURING SOLAR CYCLE 23
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Basu, Sarbani; Antia, H. M., E-mail: sarbani.basu@yale.ed, E-mail: antia@tifr.res.i
2010-07-01
We have analyzed available full-disk data from the Michelson Doppler Imager on board SOHO using the 'ring diagram' technique to determine the behavior of solar meridional flows over solar cycle 23 in the outer 2% of the solar radius. We find that the dominant component of meridional flows during solar maximum was much lower than that during the minima at the beginning of cycles 23 and 24. There were differences in the flow velocities even between the two minima. The meridional flows show a migrating pattern with higher-velocity flows migrating toward the equator as activity increases. Additionally, we find thatmore » the migrating pattern of the meridional flow matches those of sunspot butterfly diagram and the zonal flows in the shallow layers. A high-latitude band in meridional flow appears around 2004, well before the current activity minimum. A Legendre polynomial decomposition of the meridional flows shows that the latitudinal pattern of the flow was also different during the maximum as compared to that during the two minima. The different components of the flow have different time dependences, and the dependence is different at different depths.« less
Predictions of Solar Cycle 24: How are We Doing?
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Pesnell, William D.
2016-01-01
Predictions of solar activity are an essential part of our Space Weather forecast capability. Users are requiring usable predictions of an upcoming solar cycle to be delivered several years before solar minimum. A set of predictions of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 accumulated in 2008 ranged from zero to unprecedented levels of solar activity. The predictions formed an almost normal distribution, centered on the average amplitude of all preceding solar cycles. The average of the current compilation of 105 predictions of the annual-average sunspot number is 106 +/- 31, slightly lower than earlier compilations but still with a wide distribution. Solar Cycle 24 is on track to have a below-average amplitude, peaking at an annual sunspot number of about 80. Our need for solar activity predictions and our desire for those predictions to be made ever earlier in the preceding solar cycle will be discussed. Solar Cycle 24 has been a below-average sunspot cycle. There were peaks in the daily and monthly averaged sunspot number in the Northern Hemisphere in 2011 and in the Southern Hemisphere in 2014. With the rapid increase in solar data and capability of numerical models of the solar convection zone we are developing the ability to forecast the level of the next sunspot cycle. But predictions based only on the statistics of the sunspot number are not adequate for predicting the next solar maximum. I will describe how we did in predicting the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 and describe how solar polar field predictions could be made more accurate in the future.
Cyclic Evolution of Coronal Fields from a Coupled Dynamo Potential-Field Source-Surface Model.
Dikpati, Mausumi; Suresh, Akshaya; Burkepile, Joan
The structure of the Sun's corona varies with the solar-cycle phase, from a near spherical symmetry at solar maximum to an axial dipole at solar minimum. It is widely accepted that the large-scale coronal structure is governed by magnetic fields that are most likely generated by dynamo action in the solar interior. In order to understand the variation in coronal structure, we couple a potential-field source-surface model with a cyclic dynamo model. In this coupled model, the magnetic field inside the convection zone is governed by the dynamo equation; these dynamo-generated fields are extended from the photosphere to the corona using a potential-field source-surface model. Assuming axisymmetry, we take linear combinations of associated Legendre polynomials that match the more complex coronal structures. Choosing images of the global corona from the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory at each Carrington rotation over half a cycle (1986 - 1991), we compute the coefficients of the associated Legendre polynomials up to degree eight and compare with observations. We show that at minimum the dipole term dominates, but it fades as the cycle progresses; higher-order multipolar terms begin to dominate. The amplitudes of these terms are not exactly the same for the two limbs, indicating that there is a longitude dependence. While both the 1986 and the 1996 minimum coronas were dipolar, the minimum in 2008 was unusual, since there was a substantial departure from a dipole. We investigate the physical cause of this departure by including a North-South asymmetry in the surface source of the magnetic fields in our flux-transport dynamo model, and find that this asymmetry could be one of the reasons for departure from the dipole in the 2008 minimum.
Morphology of equatorial plasma bubbles during low and high solar activity years over Indian sector
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kumar, Sanjay
2017-05-01
In the present study, slant total electron content (STEC) data computed from ground based GPS measurements over Hyderabad (Geog. Lat. 17.41° N, geog. long. 78.55° E, mag. lat. 08.81° N) and two close stations at Bangalore (Geog. Lat. 13.02°/13.03° N, geog. long. 77.57°/77.51° E, mag. lat. 04.53°/04.55° N) in Indian region during 2007-2012, have been used to study the occurrences and characteristics of equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs). The analysis found maximum EPB occurrences during the equinoctial months and minimum during the December solstice throughout 2007-2012 except during the solar minimum years in 2007-2009. During 2007-2009, the maximum EPB occurrences were observed in June solstice which could not be predicted by the model proposed by Tsunoda (J. Geophys. Res., 90:447-456, 1985). The equinox maximum in EPB occurrences for high solar activity years could be caused by the vertical F-layer drift due to pre-reversal electric field (PRE), and expected to be maximum when day-night terminator aligns with the magnetic meridian i.e. during the equinox months whereas maximum occurrences during the solstice months of solar minimum could be caused by the seed perturbation in plasma density induced by gravity waves from tropospheric origins. Generally EPB occurrences are found to be more prominent during nighttime hours (2000-2400 hours) than the daytime hours. Peak in EPB occurrences is in early night for high solar activity years whereas same is late night for low solar activity. The day and nighttime EPB occurrences have been analyzed and found to vary in accordance with solar activity with an annual correlation coefficient (R) of ˜0.99 with F_{10.7} cm solar Flux. Additionally, solar activity influence on EPB occurrences is seasonal dependent with a maximum influence during the equinox season (R=0.88) and a minimum during winter season (R =0.73). The solar activity influences on EPB occurrences are found in agreement with the previous works reported in the Brazilian, African-Asian and Pacific longitudes sector but different than that in Atlantic sector.
Ionospheric effects of the extreme solar activity of February 1986
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Boska, J.; Pancheva, D.
1989-01-01
During February 1986, near the minimum of the 11 year Solar sunspot cycle, after a long period of totally quiet solar activity (R sub z = 0 on most days in January) a period of a suddenly enhanced solar activity occurred in the minimum between solar cycles 21 and 22. Two proton flares were observed during this period. A few other flares, various phenomena accompanying proton flares, an extremely severe geomagnetic storm and strong disturbances in the Earth's ionosphere were observed in this period of enhanced solar activity. Two active regions appeared on the solar disc. The flares in both active regions were associated with enhancement of solar high energy proton flux which started on 4 February of 0900 UT. Associated with the flares, the magnetic storm with sudden commencement had its onset on 6 February 1312 UT and attained its maximum on 8 February (Kp = 9). The sudden enhancement in solar activity in February 1986 was accompanied by strong disturbances in the Earth's ionosphere, SIDs and ionospheric storm. These events and their effects on the ionosphere are discussed.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cliver, E. W.; Ling, A. G.; Richardson, I. G.
2003-01-01
Using a recent classification of the solar wind at 1 AU into its principal components (slow solar wind, high-speed streams, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) for 1972-2000, we show that the monthly-averaged galactic cosmic ray intensity is anti-correlated with the percentage of time that the Earth is imbedded in CME flows. We suggest that this correlation results primarily from a CME related change in the tail of the distribution function of hourly-averaged values of the solar wind magnetic field (B) between solar minimum and solar maximum. The number of high-B (square proper subset 10 nT) values increases by a factor of approx. 3 from minimum to maximum (from 5% of all hours to 17%), with about two-thirds of this increase due to CMEs. On an hour-to-hour basis, average changes of cosmic ray intensity at Earth become negative for solar wind magnetic field values square proper subset 10 nT.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Zhu, Kai; Kim, Donghoe; Whitaker, James B
Rapid development of perovskite solar cells (PSCs) during the past several years has made this photovoltaic (PV) technology a serious contender for potential large-scale deployment on the terawatt scale in the PV market. To successfully transition PSC technology from the laboratory to industry scale, substantial efforts need to focus on scalable fabrication of high-performance perovskite modules with minimum negative environmental impact. Here, we provide an overview of the current research and our perspective regarding PSC technology toward future large-scale manufacturing and deployment. Several key challenges discussed are (1) a scalable process for large-area perovskite module fabrication; (2) less hazardous chemicalmore » routes for PSC fabrication; and (3) suitable perovskite module designs for different applications.« less
Electrical properties of graphene film for counter electrode in dye sensitized solar cells
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Khalifa, Ali; Shafie, S.; Hasan, W. Z. W.; Lim, H. N.; Rusop, M.; Samaila, Buda
2018-05-01
A graphene counter electrode for dye-sensitized solar cell was prepared simply by drop casting method on a conducting FTO glass at room temperature. Raman spectroscopy was used to study the defection in the graphene films. The sheet resistance was also measured and recoded minimum value of 7.04 Ω/□ at 22.19µm thickness. The casted films show good adhesion to substrates with low defects. A DSSC based on graphene counter electrode demonstrates reasonable conversion efficiency of 2.78% with short circuit current of 7.60mA, open circuit voltage of 0.69V and fill factor of 0.52. The high conductivity and low defects render the prepared graphene dispersion for DSSCs' CE application.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Imber, S. M.; Milan, S. E.; Lester, M.
2012-04-01
We present a long term study, from 1995 - 2011, of the latitude of the Heppner-Maynard Boundary (HMB) determined using the northern hemisphere SuperDARN radars. The HMB represents the equatorward extent of ionospheric convection. We find that the average latitude of the HMB at midnight is 61° magnetic latitude during the solar maximum of 2003, but it moves significantly poleward during solar minimum, averaging 64° latitude during 1996, and 68° during 2010. This poleward motion is observed despite the increasing number of low latitude radars built in recent years as part of the StormDARN network, and so is not an artefact of data coverage. We believe that the recent extreme solar minimum lead to an average HMB location that was further poleward than previous solar cycles. We also calculated the open-closed field line boundary (OCB) from auroral images during the years 2000-2002 and find that on average the HMB is located equatorward of the OCB by ~6°. We suggest that the HMB may be a useful proxy for the OCB when global auroral images are not available.
Characteristics of low-latitude ionospheric depletions and enhancements during solar minimum
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Haaser, R. A.; Earle, G. D.; Heelis, R. A.; Klenzing, J.; Stoneback, R.; Coley, W. R.; Burrell, A. G.
2012-10-01
Under the waning solar minimum conditions during 2009 and 2010, the Ion Velocity Meter, part of the Coupled Ion Neutral Dynamics Investigation aboard the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System satellite, is used to measure in situ nighttime ion densities and drifts at altitudes between 400 and 550 km during the hours 21:00-03:00 solar local time. A new approach to detecting and classifying well-formed ionospheric plasma depletions and enhancements (bubbles and blobs) with scale sizes between 50 and 500 km is used to develop geophysical statistics for the summer, winter, and equinox seasons during the quiet solar conditions. Some diurnal and seasonal geomagnetic distribution characteristics confirm previous work on equatorial irregularities and scintillations, while other elements reveal new behaviors that will require further investigation before they may be fully understood. Events identified in the study reveal very different and often opposite behaviors of bubbles and blobs during solar minimum. In particular, more bubbles demonstrating deeper density fluctuations and faster perturbation plasma drifts typically occur earlier near the magnetic equator, while blobs of similar magnitude occur more often far away from the geomagnetic equator closer to midnight.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McCracken, K. G.; McDonald, F. B.; Beer, J.
2009-12-01
The cosmogenic radionuclide data from the past 10,000 years, and the instrumental cosmic ray data since 1936 provide detailed information on the possible consequences of the present long and deep solar minimum. Furthermore, the cosmic ray transport equation has been used to estimate the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) throughout the past 10,000 years. This paper presents a series of figures that document the behavior of both the cosmic radiation and the IMF at Earth in the past. In particular, the 11-year cycles in both quantities for the past 600 years are displayed; and estimates given of the cosmic ray spectrum at Earth for situations that history tells us may occur in the near future. Over the longer term, a minimum of the Hallstatt cycle (2200 yr periodicity) of solar activity occurred ~500 years ago and the Sun is now on a steadily rising plane of activity. The historic record shows that the cosmic ray intensity has decreased extremely rapidly after earlier prolonged deep minima and this suggests rapid and large changes in the heliospheric conditions that we may see replicated. The paper will also display data from the deep, isolated solar minimum of 1956 that exhibited unusual low energy cosmic ray fluxes, and a highly anomalous cosmic ray gradient in the inner heliosphere. Paleo-cosmic ray evidence will also be displayed of an episode of intense solar energetic particle (SEP) events in the interval of reduced solar activity, 1892-1900, that may possibly be repeated. If the present long, deep solar minimum is a precursor to a “Grand Minimum” such as the Dalton minimum, it will provide a much improved insight into the spectrum of the cosmic radiation in interstellar space, and to the cosmic ray modulation process in the heliosphere. With this in mind, the paper suggests key measurements, and speculates on experimental conditions that may be markedly different from those encountered in the instrumental era.
Polar Chromospheric Signatures of the Subdued Cycle 23/24 Solar Minimum
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Gopalswamy, N.; Yashiro, S.; Makela, P.; Shibasaki, K.; Hathaway, D.
2010-01-01
Coronal holes appear brighter than the quiet Sun in microwave images, with a brightness enhancement of 500 to 2000 K. The brightness enhancement corresponds to the upper chromosphere, where the plasma temperature is about 10000 K. We constructed a microwave butterfly diagram using the synoptic images obtained by the Nobeyama radioheliograph (NoRH) showing the evolution of the polar and low latitude brightness temperature. While the polar brightness reveals the chromospheric conditions, the low latitude brightness is attributed to active regions in the corona. When we compared the microwave butterfly diagram with the magnetic butterfly diagram, we found a good correlation between the microwave brightness enhancement and the polar field strength. The microwave butterfly diagram covers part of solar cycle 22, whole of cycle 23, and part of cycle 24, thus enabling comparison between the cycle 23/24 and cycle 22/23 minima. The microwave brightness during the cycle 23/24 minimum was found to be lower than that during the cycle 22/23 minimum by approximately 250 K. The reduced brightness temperature is consistent with the reduced polar field strength during the cycle 23/24 minimum seen in the magnetic butterfly diagram. We suggest that the microwave brightness at the solar poles is a good indicator of the speed of the solar wind sampled by Ulysses at high latitudes.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Woo, Richard; Goldstein, Richard M.
1994-01-01
Spectral broadening measurements conducted at S-band (13-cm wavelength) during solar minimum conditions in the heliocentric distance range of 3-8 R(sub O) by Mariner 4, Pioneer 10, Mariner 10, Helios 1, Helios 2, and Viking have been combined to reveal a factor of 2.6 reduction in bandwidth from equator to pole. Since spectral broadening bandwidth depends on electron density fluctuation and solar wind speed, and latitudinal variation of the former is available from coherence bandwidth measurements, the remote sensing spectral broadening measurements provide the first determination of the latitudinal variation of solar wind speed in the acceleration region. When combined with electron density measurements deduced from white-light coronagraphs, this result also leads to the first determination of the latitudinal variation of mass flux in the acceleration region. From equator to pole, solar wind speed increases by a factor of 2.2, while mass flux decreases by a factor of 2.3. These results are consistent with measurements of solar wind speed by multi-station intensity scintillation measurements, as well as measurements of mass flux inferred from Lyman alpha observations, both of which pertain to the solar wind beyond 0.5 AU. The spectral broadening observations, therefore, strengthen earlier conclusions about the latitudinal variation of solar wind speed and mass flux, and reinforce current solar coronal models and their implications for solar wind acceleration and solar wind modeling.
2016-11-30
This week the sun was hitting its lowest level of solar activity since 2011 (Nov. 14-18, 2016) as it gradually marches toward solar minimum. This activity is usually measured by sunspot count and over the past several days the sun has been almost spotless. The sun has a pendulum-like pattern of solar cycle of activity that extends over about an 11-year period. The last peak of activity was in early 2014. At this point in time, the sunspot numbers seem to be sliding downwards faster than expected, though the solar minimum level should not occur until 2021. No doubt more and larger sunspots will inevitably appear, but we'll just have to wait and see. Movies are available at http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA21207
Geomagnetic storms of cycle 24 and their solar sources
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Watari, Shinichi
2017-05-01
Solar activity of cycle 24 following the deep minimum between cycle 23 and cycle 24 is the weakest one since cycle 14 (1902-1913). Geomagnetic activity is also low in cycle 24. We show that this low geomagnetic activity is caused by the weak dawn-to-dusk solar wind electric field ( E d-d) and that the occurrence rate of E d-d > 5 mV/m decreased in the interval from 2013 to 2014. We picked up seventeen geomagnetic storms with the minimum Dst index of less than -100 nT and identified their solar sources in cycle 24 (2009-2015). It is shown that the relatively slow coronal mass ejections contributed to the geomagnetic storms in cycle 24.
Panel Discussions on Total Solar Irradiance Variations and the Maunder Minimum
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Pap, J. M.; White, O. R.
1993-01-01
For more than a decade, total solar irradiance has been monitored from several satellites, namely and Nimbus-7, Solar Maximum Mission (SMM), the NASA ERBS, NOAA9 and NOAA10,EURECA, and the Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (SARS).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shirley, James H.
2009-05-01
Fairbridge and Shirley (1987) predicted that a new prolonged minimum of solar activity would be underway by the year 2013 (Solar Physics 110, 191). While it is much too early to tell if this prediction will be fully realized, recent observations document a striking reduction in the Sun's general level of activity. While other forecasts of reduced future activity levels on decadal time scales have appeared, the Fairbridge-Shirley (FS) prediction is unique in pinpointing the current epoch. We are unaware of any forecast method that shows a better correspondence with the actual behavior of the Sun to this point. The FS prediction was based on the present-day recurrence of two physical indicators that were correlated in time with the occurrence of the Wolf, Sporer, and Maunder Minima. The amplitude of the inertial revolution of the axis of symmetry of the Sun's orbital motion about the solar system barycenter, and the direction in space of that axis, each bear a relationship to the occurrence of the prolonged minima of the historic record. The FS prediction appeared before the importance of solar meridional flows was generally appreciated, and before the existence and role of the tachocline was suspected. We will update and restate some of the physical implications of the FS results, along with those of some more recent investigations, particularly with reference to orbit-spin coupling hypotheses (Shirley, 2006: M.N.R.A.S. 368, 280). New investigations combining and integrating modern dynamo models with physical solutions describing key aspects of the variability of the solar motion may lead to significant advances in our ability to forecast future changes in the Sun. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the resources of the author. No part of this work was performed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory under a contract from NASA.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Richardson, I. G.; Reames, D. V.; Wenzel, K.-P.; Rodriguez-Pacheco, J.
1990-01-01
The abundances and spectra of 1-10 MeV per nucleon protons, He-3, He-4, C, O, and Fe have been exmained during solar quiet periods from 1978 to 1987 in an effort to investigate the recent suggestion by Wenzel et al. (1990) that the ions may be of solar origin. It is found that the intensities of the ions, other than O, fall by an order of magnitude between solar maximum and solar minimum, and that the greater than 1 MeV per nucleon ions exhibit weak streaming away from the sun. More significantly, the quiet-time ions during solar maximum have He-3-rich and Fe-rich abundances which are established characteristics of small impulsive solar flares. Thus, it is suggested that small unresolved impulsive flares make a substantial contribution to the 'quiet-time' fluxes. He-4 from these flares may also contribute strongly to the ion spectra that were reported for the 35-1600 keV energy range by Wenzel et al.
Solar Photovoltaic Array With Mini-Dome Fresnel Lenses
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Piszczor, Michael F., Jr.; O'Neill, Mark J.
1994-01-01
Mini-dome Fresnel lenses concentrate sunlight onto individual photovoltaic cells. Facets of Fresnel lens designed to refract incident light at angle of minimum deviation to minimize reflective losses. Prismatic cover on surface of each cell reduces losses by redirecting incident light away from metal contacts toward bulk of semiconductor, where it is usefully absorbed. Simple design of mini-dome concentrator array easily adaptable to automated manufacturing techniques currently used by semiconductor industry. Attractive option for variety of future space missions.
The Impact of the Revised Sunspot Record on Solar Irradiance Reconstructions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kopp, G.; Krivova, N.; Wu, C. J.; Lean, J.
2016-11-01
Reliable historical records of the total solar irradiance (TSI) are needed to assess the extent to which long-term variations in the Sun's radiant energy that is incident upon Earth may exacerbate (or mitigate) the more dominant warming in recent centuries that is due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. We investigate the effects that the new Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO) sunspot-number time series may have on model reconstructions of the TSI. In contemporary TSI records, variations on timescales longer than about a day are dominated by the opposing effects of sunspot darkening and facular brightening. These two surface magnetic features, retrieved either from direct observations or from solar-activity proxies, are combined in TSI models to reproduce the current TSI observational record. Indices that manifest solar-surface magnetic activity, in particular the sunspot-number record, then enable reconstructing historical TSI. Revisions of the sunspot-number record therefore affect the magnitude and temporal structure of TSI variability on centennial timescales according to the model reconstruction methods that are employed. We estimate the effects of the new SILSO record on two widely used TSI reconstructions, namely the NRLTSI2 and the SATIRE models. We find that the SILSO record has little effect on either model after 1885, but leads to solar-cycle fluctuations with greater amplitude in the TSI reconstructions prior. This suggests that many eighteenth- and nineteenth-century cycles could be similar in amplitude to those of the current Modern Maximum. TSI records based on the revised sunspot data do not suggest a significant change in Maunder Minimum TSI values, and from comparing this era to the present, we find only very small potential differences in the estimated solar contributions to the climate with this new sunspot record.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Patterson, J. D.; Madanian, H.; Manweiler, J. W.; Lanzerotti, L. J.
2017-12-01
We present the compositional variation in the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) population in the inner heliosphere over two solar cycles using data from the Ulysses Heliospheric Instrument for Spectra, Composition, and Anisotropy at Low Energies (HISCALE) and Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) Electron Proton Alpha Monitor (EPAM). The Ulysses mission was active from late 1990 to mid-2009 in a heliopolar orbit inclined by 80° with a perihelion of 1.3 AU and an aphelion of 5.4 AU. The ACE mission has been active since its launch in late 1997 and is in a halo orbit about L1. These two missions provide a total of 27 years of continuous observation in the inner heliosphere with twelve years of simultaneous observation. HISCALE and EPAM data provide species-resolved differential flux and density of SEP between 0.5-5 MeV/nuc. Several ion species (He, C, O, Ne, Si, Fe) are identified using the Pulse Height Analyzer (PHA) system of the Composition Aperture for both instruments. The He density shows a noticeable increase at high solar activity followed by a moderate drop at the quiet time of the solar minimum between cycles 23 and 24. The density of heavier ions (i.e. O and Fe) change minimally with respect to the F10.7 index variations however, certain energy-specific count rates decrease during solar minimum. With Ulysses and ACE observing in different regions of the inner heliosphere, there are significant latitudinal differences in how the O/He ratios vary with the solar cycle. At solar minimum, there is reasonable agreement between the observations from both instruments. At solar max 23, the differences in composition over the course of the solar cycle, and as observed at different heliospheric locations can provide insight to the origins of and acceleration processes differentially affecting solar energetic ions.
Does a Local B-Minimum Appear in the Tail Current Sheet During a Substorm Growth Phase?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sergeev, V. A.; Gordeev, E. I.; Merkin, V. G.; Sitnov, M. I.
2018-03-01
Magnetic configurations with dBz/dr > 0 in the midtail current sheet are potentially unstable to various instabilities associated with the explosive substorm onset. Their existence is hard to confirm with observations of magnetospheric spacecraft. Here we use remote sensing by low-altitude spacecraft that measured the loss cone filling rate during electron-rich solar particle event, providing information about magnetic properties of the tail current sheet. We found a latitudinally localized anisotropic 30 keV electron loss cone region embedded inside an extended region of isotropic solar electron precipitation. It was persistently observed for more than 0.5 h during isolated growth phase event by six Polar Operational Environmental Satellites spacecraft, which crossed the premidnight auroral oval. The embedded anisotropic region was observed 1° poleward of the outer radiation belt boundary over 4-5 h wide magnetic local time sector, suggesting a persistent ridge-type Bz2/j maximum in the equatorial plasma sheet at distances 15-20 RE. We discuss infrequent observations of such events taking into account recent results of global magnetohydrodynamic simulations.
Cosmic Ray Hits in the Central Nervous System at Solar Maximum
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Curtis, S. B.; Vazquez, M. E.; Wilson, J. W.; Atwell, W.; Kin, M.-H. Y.
2000-01-01
It has been suggested that a manned mission to Mars be launched at solar maximum rather than at solar minimum to minimize the radiation exposure to galactic cosmic rays. It is true that the number of hits from highly ionizing particles to critical regions in the brain will be less at solar maximum, and it is of interest to estimate how much less. We present here calculations for several sites within the brain from iron ions (z = 26) and from particles with charge, z, greater than or equal to 15. The same shielding configurations and sites in the brain used in an earlier paper for solar minimum are employed so that direct comparison of results between the two solar activity conditions can be made. A simple pressure-vessel wall and an equipment room onboard a spacecraft are chosen as shielding examples. In the equipment room, typical results for the thalamus are that the probability of any particles with z greater than or equal to 15 and from 2.3 percent to 1.3 percent for iron ions. The extra shielding provided in the equipment room makes little difference in these numbers. We conclude that this decrease in hit frequency (less than a factor of two) does not provide a compelling reason to avoid solar minimum for a manned mission to Mars. This conclusion could be revised, however, if a very small number of hits is found to cause critical malfunction within the brain.
Simulation of Earth-Moon-Mars Environments for the Assessment of Organ Doses
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, M. Y.; Schwadron, N. A.; Townsend, L.; Cucinotta, F. A.
2010-12-01
Space radiation environments for historically large solar particle events (SPE) and galactic cosmic rays (GCR) at solar minimum and solar maximum are simulated in order to characterize exposures to radio-sensitive organs for missions to low-Earth orbit (LEO), moon, and Mars. Primary and secondary particles for SPE and GCR are transported through the respective atmosphere of Earth or Mars, space vehicle, and astronaut’s body tissues using the HZETRN/QMSFRG computer code. In LEO, exposures are reduced compared to deep space because particles are deflected by the Earth’s magnetic field and absorbed by the solid body of the Earth. Geomagnetic transmission function as a function of altitude was applied for the particle flux of charged particles, and the shift of the organ exposures to higher velocity or lower stopping powers compared to those in deep space was analyzed. In the transport through Mars atmosphere, a vertical distribution of atmospheric thickness was calculated from the temperature and pressure data of Mars Global Surveyor, and the directional cosine distribution was implemented to describe the spherically distributed atmospheric distance along the slant path at each altitude. The resultant directional shielding by Mars atmosphere at solar minimum and solar maximum was used for the particle flux simulation at various altitudes on the Martian surface. Finally, atmospheric shielding was coupled with vehicle and body shielding for organ dose estimates. We made predictions of radiation dose equivalents and evaluated acute symptoms at LEO, moon, and Mars at solar minimum and solar maximum.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hood, Lon L.
2017-04-01
The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), also known as the 30-60 day oscillation, is the strongest of the intraseasonal climate oscillations in the tropics and has significant derivative effects on extratropical circulation and intraseasonal climate. It has recently been shown that the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the amplitude of the boreal winter MJO such that MJO amplitudes are larger on average during the easterly phase (QBOE) than during the westerly phase (QBOW). A major possible mechanism is the decrease in static stability in the lowermost stratosphere under QBOE conditions resulting from relative upwelling associated with the QBO-induced meridional circulation. Here evidence is presented that tropical upwelling changes related to the 11 year solar cycle also modulate the boreal winter MJO. Based on 37.3 years of MJO amplitude data, the largest amplitudes and occurrence rates, and the weakest static stabilities in the tropical lower stratosphere, occur during the QBOE phase under solar minimum (SMIN) conditions while the smallest amplitudes and strongest static stabilities occur during the QBOW phase under solar maximum (SMAX) conditions. Conversely, when the QBO and solar forcings are opposed (QBOW/SMIN and QBOE/SMAX), the difference in occurrence rates becomes statistically insignificant. During the coming solar minimum, at least one additional winter in the QBOE/SMIN category should occur (possibly as early as 2017/2018) during which especially large MJO amplitudes are expected and an initial test of these results will be possible.
On Multiple Reconnection X-lines and Tripolar Perturbations of Strong Guide Magnetic Fields
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Eriksson, S.; Lapenta, G.; Newman, D. L.; Phan, T. D.; Gosling, J. T.; Lavraud, B.; Khotyaintsev, Yu. V.; Carr, C. M.; Markidis, S.; Goldman, M. V.
2015-05-01
We report new multi-spacecraft Cluster observations of tripolar guide magnetic field perturbations at a solar wind reconnection exhaust in the presence of a guide field BM which is almost four times as strong as the reversing field BL. The novel tripolar field consists of two narrow regions of depressed BM, with an observed 7%-14% ΔBM magnitude relative to the external field, which are found adjacent to a wide region of enhanced BM within the exhaust. A stronger reversing field is associated with each BM depression. A kinetic reconnection simulation for realistic solar wind conditions and the observed strong guide field reveals that tripolar magnetic fields preferentially form across current sheets in the presence of multiple X-lines as magnetic islands approach one another and merge into fewer and larger islands. The simulated ΔBM/ΔXN over the normal width ΔXN between a BM minimum and the edge of the external region agree with the normalized values observed by Cluster. We propose that a tripolar guide field perturbation may be used to identify candidate regions containing multiple X-lines and interacting magnetic islands at individual solar wind current sheets with a strong guide field.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Browning, P. K.; Cardnell, S.; Evans, M.; Arese Lucini, F.; Lukin, V. S.; McClements, K. G.; Stanier, A.
2016-01-01
Twisted magnetic flux ropes are ubiquitous in laboratory and astrophysical plasmas, and the merging of such flux ropes through magnetic reconnection is an important mechanism for restructuring magnetic fields and releasing free magnetic energy. The merging-compression scenario is one possible start-up scheme for spherical tokamaks, which has been used on the Mega Amp Spherical Tokamak (MAST). Two current-carrying plasma rings or flux ropes approach each due to mutual attraction, forming a current sheet and subsequently merge through magnetic reconnection into a single plasma torus, with substantial plasma heating. Two-dimensional resistive and Hall-magnetohydrodynamic simulations of this process are reported, including a strong guide field. A model of the merging based on helicity-conserving relaxation to a minimum energy state is also presented, extending previous work to tight-aspect-ratio toroidal geometry. This model leads to a prediction of the final state of the merging, in good agreement with simulations and experiment, as well as the average temperature rise. A relaxation model of reconnection between two or more flux ropes in the solar corona is also described, allowing for different senses of twist, and the implications for heating of the solar corona are discussed.
Radio Imaging Observations of Solar Activity Cycle and Its Anomaly
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shibasaki, K.
2011-12-01
The 24th solar activity cycle has started and relative sunspot numbers are increasing. However, their rate of increase is rather slow compared to previous cycles. Active region sizes are small, lifetime is short, and big (X-class) flares are rare so far. We study this anomalous situation using data from Nobeyama Radioheliograph (NoRH). Radio imaging observations have been done by NoRH since 1992. Nearly 20 years of daily radio images of the Sun at 17 GHz are used to synthesize a radio butterfly diagram. Due to stable operation of the instrument and a robust calibration method, uniform datasets are available covering the whole period of observation. The radio butterfly diagram shows bright features corresponding to active region belts and their migration toward low latitude as the solar cycle progresses. In the present solar activity cycle (24), increase of radio brightness is delayed and slow. There are also bright features around both poles (polar brightening). Their brightness show solar cycle dependence but peaks around solar minimum. Comparison between the last minimum and the previous one shows decrease of its brightness. This corresponds to weakening of polar magnetic field activity between them. In the northern pole, polar brightening is already weakened in 2011, which means it is close to solar maximum in the northern hemisphere. Southern pole does not show such feature yet. Slow rise of activity in active region belt, weakening of polar activity during the minimum, and large north-south asymmetry in polar activity imply that global solar activity and its synchronization are weakening.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Farhang, Nastaran; Safari, Hossein; Wheatland, Michael S.
2018-05-01
Solar flares are an abrupt release of magnetic energy in the Sun’s atmosphere due to reconnection of the coronal magnetic field. This occurs in response to turbulent flows at the photosphere that twist the coronal field. Similar to earthquakes, solar flares represent the behavior of a complex system, and expectedly their energy distribution follows a power law. We present a statistical model based on the principle of minimum energy in a coronal loop undergoing magnetic reconnection, which is described as an avalanche process. We show that the distribution of peaks for the flaring events in this self-organized critical system is scale-free. The obtained power-law index of 1.84 ± 0.02 for the peaks is in good agreement with satellite observations of soft X-ray flares. The principle of minimum energy can be applied for general avalanche models to describe many other phenomena.
Strong Solar Control of Infrared Aurora on Jupiter: Correlation Since the Last Solar Maximum
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kostiuk, T.; Livengood, T. A.; Hewagama, T.
2009-01-01
Polar aurorae in Jupiter's atmosphere radiate throughout the electromagnetic spectrum from X ray through mid-infrared (mid-IR, 5 - 20 micron wavelength). Voyager IRIS data and ground-based spectroscopic measurements of Jupiter's northern mid-IR aurora, acquired since 1982, reveal a correlation between auroral brightness and solar activity that has not been observed in Jovian aurora at other wavelengths. Over nearly three solar cycles, Jupiter auroral ethane emission brightness and solar 10.7 cm radio flux and sunspot number are positively correlated with high confidence. Ethane line emission intensity varies over tenfold between low and high solar activity periods. Detailed measurements have been made using the GSFC HIPWAC spectrometer at the NASA IRTF since the last solar maximum, following the mid-IR emission through the declining phase toward solar minimum. An even more convincing correlation with solar activity is evident in these data. Current analyses of these results will be described, including planned measurements on polar ethane line emission scheduled through the rise of the next solar maximum beginning in 2009, with a steep gradient to a maximum in 2012. This work is relevant to the Juno mission and to the development of the Europa Jupiter System Mission. Results of observations at the Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) operated by the University of Hawaii under Cooperative Agreement no. NCC5-538 with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Science Mission Directorate, Planetary Astronomy Program. This work was supported by the NASA Planetary Astronomy Program.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Alken, P.
2016-01-01
The CHAMP and Swarm satellites, which provide high-quality magnetic field measurements in low-altitude polar orbits, are ideally suited for investigating ionospheric current systems. In this study, we focus on the F region low-latitude gravity and diamagnetic currents which are prominent in the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) region in the North and South Hemisphere. During its 10 year mission, CHAMP has sampled nearly the entire altitude range of the EIA, offering the opportunity to study these currents from above, inside, and below their source region. The Swarm constellation offers the unique opportunity to study near-simultaneous measurements of the current systems at different longitudinal separations. In this study, we present new observations of these current systems, investigate their seasonal and local time dependence, investigate the use of in situ electron density measurements as a proxy for the magnetic perturbations, and compute the longitudinal self correlation of these currents. We find that these currents are strongest during spring and fall, produce nighttime magnetic fields at satellite altitude of up to 5-7 nT during solar maximum, 2-3 nT during solar minimum, and are highly correlated with in situ electron density measurements. We also find these currents are self-correlated above 70% up to 15° longitude in both hemispheres during the evening.
Dish Stirling solar receiver program
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Haglund, R. A.
1980-01-01
A technology demonstration of a Dish Stirling solar thermal electric system can be accomplished earlier and at a much lower cost than previous planning had indicated by employing technical solutions that allow already existing hardware, with minimum modifications, to be integrated into a total system with a minimum of development. The DSSR operates with a modified United Stirling p-40 engine/alternator and the JPL Test Bed Concentrator as a completely integrated solar thermal electric system having a design output of 25 kWe. The system is augmented by fossil fuel combustion which ensures a continuous electrical output under all environmental conditions. Technical and economic studies by government and industry in the United States and abroad identify the Dish Stirling solar electric system as the most appropriate, efficient and economical method for conversion of solar energy to electricity in applications when the electrical demand is 10 MWe and less.
Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.
Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C; Gray, Lesley J; Scaife, Adam A; Dunstone, Nick J; Harder, Jerald W; Knight, Jeff R; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C; Wood, Richard A
2015-06-23
Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.
Statistical detection of patterns in unidimensional distributions by continuous wavelet transforms
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Baluev, R. V.
2018-04-01
Objective detection of specific patterns in statistical distributions, like groupings or gaps or abrupt transitions between different subsets, is a task with a rich range of applications in astronomy: Milky Way stellar population analysis, investigations of the exoplanets diversity, Solar System minor bodies statistics, extragalactic studies, etc. We adapt the powerful technique of the wavelet transforms to this generalized task, making a strong emphasis on the assessment of the patterns detection significance. Among other things, our method also involves optimal minimum-noise wavelets and minimum-noise reconstruction of the distribution density function. Based on this development, we construct a self-closed algorithmic pipeline aimed to process statistical samples. It is currently applicable to single-dimensional distributions only, but it is flexible enough to undergo further generalizations and development.
Dynamo-based scheme for forecasting the magnitude of solar activity cycles
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Layden, A. C.; Fox, P. A.; Howard, J. M.; Sarajedini, A.; Schatten, K. H.
1991-01-01
This paper presents a general framework for forecasting the smoothed maximum level of solar activity in a given cycle, based on a simple understanding of the solar dynamo. This type of forecasting requires knowledge of the sun's polar magnetic field strength at the preceding activity minimum. Because direct measurements of this quantity are difficult to obtain, the quality of a number of proxy indicators already used by other authors is evaluated, which are physically related to the sun's polar field. These indicators are subjected to a rigorous statistical analysis, and the analysis technique for each indicator is specified in detail in order to simplify and systematize reanalysis for future use. It is found that several of these proxies are in fact poorly correlated or uncorrelated with solar activity, and thus are of little value for predicting activity maxima. Also presented is a scheme in which the predictions of the individual proxies are combined via an appropriately weighted mean to produce a compound prediction. The scheme is then applied to the current cycle 22, and a maximum smoothed international sunspot number of 171 + or - 26 is estimated.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Virtanen, Ilpo; Mursula, Kalevi
2016-06-01
Aims: We study the long-term evolution of photospheric and coronal magnetic fields and the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), especially its north-south asymmetry. Special attention is paid to the reliability of the six data sets used in this study and to the consistency of the results based on these data sets. Methods: We use synoptic maps constructed from Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO), Mount Wilson Observatory (MWO), Kitt Peak (KP), SOLIS, SOHO/MDI, and SDO/HMI measurements of the photospheric field and the potential field source surface (PFSS) model. Results: The six data sets depict a fairly similar long-term evolution of magnetic fields and the heliospheric current sheet, including polarity reversals and hemispheric asymmetry. However, there are time intervals of several years long, when first KP measurements in the 1970s and 1980s, and later WSO measurements in the 1990s and early 2000s, significantly deviate from the other simultaneous data sets, reflecting likely errors at these times. All of the six magnetographs agree on the southward shift of the heliospheric current sheet (the so-called bashful ballerina phenomenon) in the declining to minimum phase of the solar cycle during a few years of the five included cycles. We show that during solar cycles 20-22, the southward shift of the HCS is mainly due to the axial quadrupole term, reflecting the stronger magnetic field intensity at the southern pole during these times. During cycle 23 the asymmetry is less persistent and mainly due to higher harmonics than the quadrupole term. Currently, in the early declining phase of cycle 24, the HCS is also shifted southward and is mainly due to the axial quadrupole as for most earlier cycles. This further emphasizes the special character of the global solar field during cycle 23.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yau, K.
2001-12-01
A prolonged decrease in the Sun's irradiance during the Maunder Minimum has been proposed as a cause of the Little Ice Age ({ca} 1600-1800). Eddy [{Science} {192}, 1976, 1189] made this suggestion after noting that very few sunspots were observed from 1645 to 1715, indicative of a weakened Sun. Pre-telescopic Oriental sunspot records go back over 2200 years. Periods when no sunspots were seen have been documented by, {eg}, Clark [{Astron} {7}, 2/1979, 50]. Abundances of C 14 in tree rings and Be10 in ice cores are also good indicators of past solar activity. These isotopes are produced by cosmic rays high in the atmosphere. When the Sun is less active more of them are made and deposited at ground level. There is thus a strong {negative} correlation between their abundances and sunspot counts. Minima of solar activity in tree rings and a south polar ice core have been collated by, {eg}, Bard [{Earth Planet Sci Lett} {150} 1997, 453]; and show striking correspondence with periods when no sunspots were seen, centered at {ca} 900, 1050, 1500, 1700. Pang and Yau [{Eos} {79}, #45, 1998, F149] investigated the Medieval Minimum at 700, using in addition the frequency of auroral sighting7s, a good indicator of solar activity too [Yau, PhD thesis, 1988]; and found that the progression of minima in solar activity goes back to 700. Auroral frequency, C 14 and Be 10 concentrations are also affected by variations in the geomagnetic field. Deposition changes can also influence C 14 and Be 10 abundances. Sunspot counts are thus the only true indicator of solar activity. The Sun's bolometric variations (-0.3% for the Maunder Minimum) can contribute to climatic changes (\\0.5° C for the Little Ice Age)[{eg}, Lean, {GRL} {22}, 1995, 3195]. For times with no thermometer data, temperature can be estimated from, {eg}, Oxygen 18 isotopic abundance in ice cores, which in turn depends on the temperature of the ocean water it evaporated from. We have linked the Medieval Minimum to the cold spell, dated to {ca} 700 by Dansgaard [{Nature} {255}, 1974, 24]. Using records of advances and retreats of glaciers, previous researchers have linked it to a cold spell in the previous two centuries instead, thus requiring an offset in timescales. Our literature search has yielded more records of sunspot sightings, and established the fifth century as a minimum of solar activity, ending in a maximum at {ca} 500. These features and the minimum at 700 match contemporary deviations of atmospheric C 14 from a secular trend, due primarily to long-term changes in the strength of the Earth's magnetic moment [Stuiver, {Radiocarbon} {35}, 215]. Pang has shown that the climate of Eurasia was cold in the 5th century, due partly to volcanic cooling [{Eos} {80}, #46, 1999, F220]. Reduced solar luminosity may have contributed to that too. The cold apparently forced massive southward migrations of Teutonic and Asian barbarians into the Roman Empire, ending it in 476. Europe was plunged into the Dark Age, from which it did not recover until the climate warmed up again toward the end of the millennium. Finally, climate changes can also be produced by greenhouse warming, reorganization of ocean current systems "Dansgaard-Oeschger events," the Earth's orbital variations "Milankovitch effects," {etc}. Continued analysis of historical records, in conjunction with other proxy data, can help shed light on the nature of the Earth's interactions with the Sun, and the causes of past climate changes.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pandey, Kuldeep; Sekar, R.; Anandarao, B. G.; Gupta, S. P.; Chakrabarty, D.
2018-03-01
Studies made earlier using ground-based observations of geomagnetic field over the Indian longitudes revealed that the occurrence of equatorial counter electrojet (CEJ) events in afternoon hours is more frequent during June solstice (May-June-July-August) in solar minimum than in other periods. In general, the June solstice solar minimum CEJ events occur between 1500 local time (LT) and 1800 LT with peak strength of about -10 nT at around 1600 LT. In order to understand the frequent occurrence of these CEJ events, an investigation is carried out using an equatorial electrojet model (Anandarao, 1976, https://doi.org/10.1029/GL003i009p00545) and the empirical vertical drift model by Fejer et al. (2008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JA012801). The strength, duration, peak value, and the occurrence time of CEJ obtained using electrojet model match remarkably well with the corresponding observation of average geomagnetic field variations. The occurrence of CEJ is found to be due to solar quiet (Sq) electric field in the westward direction which is manifested as downward drift in Fejer et al. (2008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JA012801) model output during 1500-1800 LT. Further, the occurrence of afternoon reversal of Sq electric field in this season is shown to be consistent with earlier studies from Indian sector. Therefore, this investigation provides explicit evidence for the role of westward Sq electric field on the generation of afternoon CEJ during June solstice in solar minimum periods over the Indian sector indicating the global nature of these CEJ events.
Behavior of Solar Cycles 23 and 24 Revealed by Microwave Observations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Gopalswamy, N.; Yashiro, S.; Maekelae, P.; Michalek, G.; Shibasaki, K.; Hathaway, D. H.
2012-01-01
Using magnetic and microwave butterfly diagrams, we compare the behavior of solar polar regions to show that (1) the polar magnetic field and the microwave brightness temperature during solar minimum substantially diminished during the cycle 23/24 minimum compared to the 22/23 minimum. (2) The polar microwave brightness temperature (Tb) seems to be a good proxy for the underlying magnetic field strength (B). The analysis indicates a relationship, B = 0.0067Tb - 70, where B is in G and Tb in K. (3) Both the brightness temperature and the magnetic field strength show north-south asymmetry most of the time except for a short period during the maximum phase. (4) The rush-to-the-pole phenomenon observed in the prominence eruption (PE) activity seems to be complete in the northern hemisphere as of 2012 March. (5) The decline of the microwave brightness temperature in the north polar region to the quiet-Sun levels and the sustained PE activity poleward of 60degN suggest that solar maximum conditions have arrived at the northern hemisphere. The southern hemisphere continues to exhibit conditions corresponding to the rise phase of solar cycle 24. Key words: Sun: chromosphere Sun: coronal mass ejections (CMEs) Sun: filaments, prominences Sun: photosphere Sun: radio radiation Sun: surface magnetism
Great geomagnetic storm of 9 November 1991: Association with a disappearing solar filament
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cliver, E. W.; Balasubramaniam, K. S.; Nitta, N. V.; Li, X.
2009-02-01
We attribute the great geomagnetic storm on 8-10 November 1991 to a large-scale eruption that encompassed the disappearance of a ~25° solar filament in the southern solar hemisphere. The resultant soft X-ray arcade spanned ~90° of solar longitude. The rapid growth of an active region lying at one end of the X-ray arcade appears to have triggered the eruption. This is the largest geomagnetic storm yet associated with the eruption of a quiescent filament. The minimum hourly Dst value of -354 nT on 9 November 1991 compares with a minimum Dst value of -161 nT for the largest 27-day recurrent (coronal hole) storm observed from 1972 to 2005 and the minimum -559 nT value observed during the flare-associated storm of 14 March 1989, the greatest magnetic storm recorded during the space age. Overall, the November 1991 storm ranks 15th on a list of Dst storms from 1905 to 2004, surpassing in intensity such well-known storms as 14 July 1982 (-310 nT) and 15 July 2000 (-317 nT). We used the Cliver et al. and Gopalswamy et al. empirical models of coronal mass ejection propagation in the solar wind to provide consistency checks on the eruption/storm association.
Chromospheric Signatures of the Subdued Cycle 23/24 Solar Minimum in Microwaves
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Yashiro, S.; Makela, P.; Shibasaki, K.; Hathaway, D.
2011-01-01
Coronal holes appear brighter than the quiet Sun in microwave images, with a brightness enhancement of 500 to 2000 K. The brightness enhancement corresponds to the upper chromosphere, where the plasma temperature is about 10000 K. We constructed a microwave butterfly diagram using the synoptic images obtained by the Nobeyama radio-heliograph (NoRH) showing the evolution of the polar and low latitude brightness temperature. While the polar brightness reveals the chromospheric conditions, the low latitude brightness is attributed to active regions in the corona. When we compared the microwave butterfly diagram with the magnetic butterfly diagram, we found a good correlation between the microwave brightness enhancement and the polar field strength. The microwave butterfly diagram covers part of solar cycle 22, whole of cycle 23, and part of cycle 24, thus enabling comparison between the cycle 23/24 and cycle 22/23 minima. The microwave brightness during the cycle 23/24 minimum was found to be lower than that during the cycle 22/23 minimum by approx.250 K. The reduced brightness temperature is consistent with the reduced polar field strength during the cycle 23/24 minimum seen in the magnetic butterfly diagram. We suggest that the microwave brightness at the solar poles is a good indicator of the speed of the solar wind sampled by Ulysses at high latitudes.
Geomagnetism during solar cycle 23: Characteristics.
Zerbo, Jean-Louis; Amory-Mazaudier, Christine; Ouattara, Frédéric
2013-05-01
On the basis of more than 48 years of morphological analysis of yearly and monthly values of the sunspot number, the aa index, the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field, we point out the particularities of geomagnetic activity during the period 1996-2009. We especially investigate the last cycle 23 and the long minimum which followed it. During this period, the lowest values of the yearly averaged IMF (3 nT) and yearly averaged solar wind speed (364 km/s) are recorded in 1996, and 2009 respectively. The year 2003 shows itself particular by recording the highest value of the averaged solar wind (568 km/s), associated to the highest value of the yearly averaged aa index (37 nT). We also find that observations during the year 2003 seem to be related to several coronal holes which are known to generate high-speed wind stream. From the long time (more than one century) study of solar variability, the present period is similar to the beginning of twentieth century. We especially present the morphological features of solar cycle 23 which is followed by a deep solar minimum.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pham Thi Thu, H.; Amory-Mazaudier, C.; Le Huy, M.
2011-01-01
Quiet days variations in the Earth's magnetic field (the Sq current system) are compared and contrasted for the Asian, African and American sectors using a new dataset from Vietnam. This is the first presentation of the variation of the Earth's magnetic field (Sq), during the solar cycle 23, at Phu Thuy, Vietnam (geographic latitudes 21.03° N and longitude: 105.95° E). Phu Thuy observatory is located below the crest of the equatorial fountain in the Asian longitude sector of the Northern Hemisphere. The morphology of the Sq daily variation is presented as a function of solar cycle and seasons. The diurnal variation of Phu Thuy is compared to those obtained in different magnetic observatories over the world to highlight the characteristics of the Phu Thuy observations. In other longitude sectors we find different patterns. At Phu Thuy the solar cycle variation of the amplitude of the daily variation of the X component is correlated to the F.10.7 cm solar radiation (~0.74). This correlation factor is greater than the correlation factor obtained in two observatories located at the same magnetic latitudes in other longitude sectors: at Tamanrasset in the African sector (~0.42, geographic latitude ~22.79) and San Juan in the American sector (~0.03, geographic latitude ~18.38). At Phu Thuy, the Sq field exhibits an equinoctial and a diurnal asymmetry: - The seasonal variation of the monthly mean of X component exhibits the well known semiannual pattern with 2 equinox maxima, but the X component is larger in spring than in autumn. Depending of the phase of the sunspot cycle, the maximum amplitude of the X component varies in spring from 30 nT to 75 nT and in autumn from 20 nT to 60 nT. The maximum amplitude of the X component exhibits roughly the same variation in both solstices, varying from about ~20 nT to 50 nT, depending on the position into the solar cycle. - In all seasons, the mean equinoctial diurnal Y component has a morning maximum Larger than the afternoon minimum i.e. the equivalent current flow over a day is more southward than northward. During winter, the asymmetry is maximum, it erases the afternoon minimum. At the Gnangara observatory, in Asian Southern Hemisphere, the diurnal Y pattern is opposite and the current flow is more northward. It seems that in the Asian sector, the northern and southern Sq current cells both contribute strongly to the equatorial electrojet. The pattern is different in the African and American sectors where the northern Sq current cell contribution to the equatorial electrojet is smaller than the southern one. These observations can explain the unexpected maximum of amplitude of the equatorial electrojet observed in the Asian sector where the internal field is very large. During winter the Y component flow presents an anomaly, it is always southward during the whole day and there is no afternoon northward circulation.
Progressing Deployment of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in the United States
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kwan, Calvin Lee
2011-07-01
This dissertation evaluates the likelihood of solar PV playing a larger role in national and state level renewable energy portfolios. I examine the feasibility of large-scale solar PV arrays on college campuses, the financials associated with large-scale solar PV arrays and finally, the influence of environmental, economic, social and political variables on the distribution of residential solar PV arrays in the United States. Chapter two investigates the challenges and feasibility of college campuses adopting a net-zero energy policy. Using energy consumption data, local solar insolation data and projected campus growth, I present a method to identify the minimum sized solar PV array that is required for the City College campus of the Los Angeles Community College District to achieve net-zero energy status. I document how current energy demand can be reduced using strategic demand side management, with remaining energy demand being met using a solar PV array. Chapter three focuses on the financial feasibility of large-scale solar PV arrays, using the proposed City College campus array as an example. I document that even after demand side energy management initiatives and financial incentives, large-scale solar PV arrays continue to have ROIs greater than 25 years. I find that traditional financial evaluation methods are not suitable for environmental projects such as solar PV installations as externalities are not taken into account and therefore calls for development of alternative financial valuation methods. Chapter four investigates the influence of environmental, social, economic and political variables on the distribution of residential solar PV arrays across the United States using ZIP code level data from the 2000 US Census. Using data from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Open PV project, I document where residential solar PVs are currently located. A zero-inflated negative binomial model was run to evaluate the influence of selected variables. Using the same model, predicted residential solar PV shares were generated and illustrated using GIS software. The results of this model indicate that solar insolation, state energy deregulation and cost of electricity are statistically significant factors positively correlated with the adoption of residential solar PV arrays. With this information, policymakers at the towns and cities level can establish effective solar PV promoting policies and regulations for their respective locations.
C-14 and temperature variation around and after AD 775 - after the Dark Age Grand Minimum
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Neuhäuser, Ralph; Neuhäuser, Dagmar L.
2016-04-01
We have compiled an extensive catalog of aurora observations from the Far and Near East as well as Europe for the time from AD 550 to 845. From historic observations of aurorae and sunspots as well as the C-14 and Be-10 data, we can date the end of the Dark Age grand minimum to about AD 690; we see strong activity after this period. We can fix the solar activity Schwabe cycle maxima and minima in the 7th and 8th centuries.. The strong 14-C increase in data with 1-yr time resolution in the AD 770s (e.g. Miyake et al. 2012) is still a matter of debate, e.g. a solar super-flare. In the last three millennia, there were two more strong rapid rises in 14-C - around BC 671 and AD 1795. All three 14-C variations are embedded in similar evolution of solar activity, as we can show with various solar activity proxies; secular evolution of solar wind plays an important role. The rises of 14-C - within a few years each - can be explained by a sudden strong decrease in solar modulation potential leading to increased radioisotope production. The strong rises around AD 775 and 1795 are due to three effects: (i) very strong activity in the previous cycles (i.e. very low 14-C level), (ii) the declining phase of a very strong Schwabe cycle, and (iii) a phase of very weak activity after the strong 14-C rise - very short and/or weak cycle(s) like the suddenly starting Dalton minimum. In addition to arXiv:1503.01581 and arXiv:1508.06745, we also discuss the temperature depression and new quasi-annual 10-Be data. If a temperature depression right after AD 775 for a few decades can be confirmed, this would be fully consistent with our suggestion: reduced solar activity since AD 775 (for a few decades like in the Dalton minimum). Otherwise, one would not expect such a temperature depression after a solar super-flare.
OSO 8 observations of wave propagation in the solar chromosphere and transition region
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chipman, E. G.
1978-01-01
The University of Colorado instrument on OSO 8 has been used to observe relative phases of the 300-s intensity variation between the temperature-minimum region and several emission lines formed in the solar chromosphere and chromosphere-corona transition region. The lines used are due to Fe II, Si II, C II, Si IV, and C IV. The scattered light in the spectrograph, which originates almost entirely in the spectral region between 1700 and 1900 A, was used as a probe of the temperature-minimum region. The lines of Fe II, Si II, and C II show almost identical delays of approximately 30 s relative to the temperature minimum, while the intensity oscillations of the lines of Si IV and C IV appear to lead the temperature-minimum intensity oscillations by about 10 s.
Seasonal evolution of S q current system at sub-auroral latitude
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vichare, Geeta; Rawat, Rahul; Hanchinal, A.; Sinha, A. K.; Dhar, A.; Pathan, B. M.
2012-11-01
The quiet-time (Σ K p ≤ 3) daily variations of the geomagnetic field at the Indian Antarctic station, Maitri (Geographic Coord.: 70.75°S, 11.73°E; Geomagnetic Coord.: 66.84°S, 56.29°E) during two consecutive years of a solar minimum are considered in order to investigate the characteristics of the solar quiet ( S q) current system. The present work reports the signatures of the south limb of the S q current loop of the southern hemisphere over a sub-auroral station. It is observed that the seasonal variation of the S q current strength over Maitri is strongest during the summer months and weakest during the winter months. In spite of the total darkness during the winter months, an S q pattern is identified at Maitri. The range of the horizontal field variation in the daily S q pattern during summer is one order higher than that during winter. An interesting feature regarding the phase of the local time variation in the seasonal pattern is found here. A sharp shift in the time of the peak S q current to later local times (> 1 hour per month) is observed during January-February and July-August, which may correspond to the transition from the complete presence, or absence, of sunlight to partial sunlight. The differences in the incoming solar UV radiation during such transitions can cause a sudden change in the local ionospheric conductivity pattern, and can also trigger some unusual thermo-tidal activity, that might be responsible for modifying the global S q pattern.
A reference solar spectral irradiance for use in atmospheric modeling
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
1982-01-01
The present state of knowledge concerning the absolute magnitude and temporal variability of the solar spectral irradiance is outlined with emphasis on wavelengths relevant to the mesosphere and stratosphere. Reference spectra for the wavelength region 175 to 850 nm are presented including estimates for solar maximum and solar minimum conditions. Values for the Lyman alpha emission are given separately.
Ten Years of Solar Change as Monitored by SBUV and SBUV/2
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Schlesinger, B. M.; Cebula, R. P.; Heath, D. F.; Deland, M. T.; Hudson, R. D.
1990-01-01
Observations of the Sun by the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument aboard Nimbus 7 and the SBUV/2 instrument aboard NOAA-9 reveal variations in the solar irradiance from 1978, to 1988. The maximum to minimum solar change estimated from the Heath and Schlesinger Mg index and wavelength scaling factors is about 4 percent from 210 to 260 nm and 8 percent for 180 to 210 nm; direct measurements of the solar change give values of 1 to 3 percent and 5 to 7 percent, respectively, for the same wavelength range. Solar irradiances were high from the start of observations, late in 1978, until 1983, declined until early 1985, remained approximately constant until mid-1987, and then began to rise. Peak-to-peak 27-day rotational modulation amplitudes were as large as 6 percent at solar maximum and 1 to 2 percent at solar minimum. During occasional intervals of the 1979 to 1983 maximum and again during 1988, the dominant rotational modulation period was 13.5 days. Measurements near 200 to 205 nm show the same rotational modulation behavior but cannot be used to track long-term changes in the Sun because of uncertainties in the characterization of long-term instrument sensitivity changes.
Reconstruction of solar spectral irradiance since the Maunder minimum
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Krivova, N. A.; Vieira, L. E. A.; Solanki, S. K.
2010-12-01
Solar irradiance is the main external driver of the Earth's climate. Whereas the total solar irradiance is the main source of energy input into the climate system, solar UV irradiance exerts control over chemical and physical processes in the Earth's upper atmosphere. The time series of accurate irradiance measurements are, however, relatively short and limit the assessment of the solar contribution to the climate change. Here we reconstruct solar total and spectral irradiance in the range 115-160,000 nm since 1610. The evolution of the solar photospheric magnetic flux, which is a central input to the model, is appraised from the historical record of the sunspot number using a simple but consistent physical model. The model predicts an increase of 1.25 W/m2, or about 0.09%, in the 11-year averaged solar total irradiance since the Maunder minimum. Also, irradiance in individual spectral intervals has generally increased during the past four centuries, the magnitude of the trend being higher toward shorter wavelengths. In particular, the 11-year averaged Ly-α irradiance has increased by almost 50%. An exception is the spectral interval between about 1500 and 2500 nm, where irradiance has slightly decreased (by about 0.02%).
On-Orbit Reconfigurable Solar Array
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Levy, Robert K. (Inventor)
2017-01-01
In one or more embodiments, the present disclosure teaches a method for reconfiguring a solar array. The method involves providing, for the solar array, at least one string of solar cells. The method further involves deactivating at least a portion of at least one of the strings of solar cells of the solar array when power produced by the solar array reaches a maximum power allowance threshold. In addition, the method involves activating at least a portion of at least one of the strings of the solar cells in the solar array when the power produced by the solar array reaches a minimum power allowance threshold.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Odenwald, Sten F.; Green, James L.
2007-06-01
We calculate the economic impact on the existing geosynchronous Earth-orbiting satellite population of an 1859-caliber superstorm event were it to occur between 2008 and 2018 during the next solar activity cycle. From a detailed model for transponder capacity and leasing, we have investigated the total revenue loss over the entire solar cycle, as a function of superstorm onset year and intensity. Our Monte Carlo simulations of 1000 possible superstorms, of varying intensity and onset year, suggest that the minimum revenue loss could be of the order of 30 billion. The losses would be larger than this if more that 20 satellites are disabled, if future launch rates do not keep up with the expected rate of retirements, or if the number of spare transponders falls below ˜30%. Consequently, revenue losses can be significantly reduced below 30 billion if the current satellite population undergoes net growth beyond 300 units during Solar Cycle 24 and a larger margin of unused transponders is maintained.
Heliospheric Magnetic Field: The Bashful Ballerina dancing in Waltz Tempo
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mursula, K.
The recent developments in the long-term observations of the heliospheric magnetic field HMF observed at 1 AU have shown that the HMF sector coming from the northern solar hemisphere systematically dominates in the late declining to minimum phase of the solar cycle This leads to a persistent southward shift or coning of the heliospheric current sheet at these times that can be picturesquely described by the concept of the Bashful Ballerina This result has recently been verified by direct measurements of the solar magnetic field The average field intensity is smaller and the corresponding area is larger in the northern hemisphere Also ground-based observations of the HMF sector structure extend these results to 1920s Moreover it has been shown that the global HMF has persistent active longitudes whose dominance depicts an oscillation with a period of about 3 2 years Accordingly the Bashful Ballerina takes three such steps per activity cycle thus dancing in waltz tempo We discuss the implications of this behaviour
Bifacial PV cell with reflector for stand-alone mast for sensor powering purposes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jakobsen, Michael L.; Thorsteinsson, Sune; Poulsen, Peter B.; Riedel, N.; Rødder, Peter M.; Rødder, Kristin
2017-09-01
Reflectors to bifacial PV-cells are simulated and prototyped in this work. The aim is to optimize the reflector to specific latitudes, and particularly northern latitudes. Specifically, by using minimum semiconductor area the reflector must be able to deliver the electrical power required at the condition of minimum solar travel above the horizon, worst weather condition etc. We will test a bifacial PV-module with a retroreflector, and compare the output with simulations combined with local solar data.
Midlatitude atmospheric OH response to the most recent 11-y solar cycle.
Wang, Shuhui; Li, King-Fai; Pongetti, Thomas J; Sander, Stanley P; Yung, Yuk L; Liang, Mao-Chang; Livesey, Nathaniel J; Santee, Michelle L; Harder, Jerald W; Snow, Martin; Mills, Franklin P
2013-02-05
The hydroxyl radical (OH) plays an important role in middle atmospheric photochemistry, particularly in ozone (O(3)) chemistry. Because it is mainly produced through photolysis and has a short chemical lifetime, OH is expected to show rapid responses to solar forcing [e.g., the 11-y solar cycle (SC)], resulting in variabilities in related middle atmospheric O(3) chemistry. Here, we present an effort to investigate such OH variability using long-term observations (from space and the surface) and model simulations. Ground-based measurements and data from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Aura satellite suggest an ∼7-10% decrease in OH column abundance from solar maximum to solar minimum that is highly correlated with changes in total solar irradiance, solar Mg-II index, and Lyman-α index during SC 23. However, model simulations using a commonly accepted solar UV variability parameterization give much smaller OH variability (∼3%). Although this discrepancy could result partially from the limitations in our current understanding of middle atmospheric chemistry, recently published solar spectral irradiance data from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment suggest a solar UV variability that is much larger than previously believed. With a solar forcing derived from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment data, modeled OH variability (∼6-7%) agrees much better with observations. Model simulations reveal the detailed chemical mechanisms, suggesting that such OH variability and the corresponding catalytic chemistry may dominate the O(3) SC signal in the upper stratosphere. Continuing measurements through SC 24 are required to understand this OH variability and its impacts on O(3) further.
Midlatitude atmospheric OH response to the most recent 11-y solar cycle
Wang, Shuhui; Li, King-Fai; Pongetti, Thomas J.; Sander, Stanley P.; Yung, Yuk L.; Liang, Mao-Chang; Livesey, Nathaniel J.; Santee, Michelle L.; Harder, Jerald W.; Snow, Martin; Mills, Franklin P.
2013-01-01
The hydroxyl radical (OH) plays an important role in middle atmospheric photochemistry, particularly in ozone (O3) chemistry. Because it is mainly produced through photolysis and has a short chemical lifetime, OH is expected to show rapid responses to solar forcing [e.g., the 11-y solar cycle (SC)], resulting in variabilities in related middle atmospheric O3 chemistry. Here, we present an effort to investigate such OH variability using long-term observations (from space and the surface) and model simulations. Ground-based measurements and data from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Aura satellite suggest an ∼7–10% decrease in OH column abundance from solar maximum to solar minimum that is highly correlated with changes in total solar irradiance, solar Mg-II index, and Lyman-α index during SC 23. However, model simulations using a commonly accepted solar UV variability parameterization give much smaller OH variability (∼3%). Although this discrepancy could result partially from the limitations in our current understanding of middle atmospheric chemistry, recently published solar spectral irradiance data from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment suggest a solar UV variability that is much larger than previously believed. With a solar forcing derived from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment data, modeled OH variability (∼6–7%) agrees much better with observations. Model simulations reveal the detailed chemical mechanisms, suggesting that such OH variability and the corresponding catalytic chemistry may dominate the O3 SC signal in the upper stratosphere. Continuing measurements through SC 24 are required to understand this OH variability and its impacts on O3 further. PMID:23341617
Variability of space climate and its extremes with successive solar cycles
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chapman, Sandra; Hush, Phillip; Tindale, Elisabeth; Dunlop, Malcolm; Watkins, Nicholas
2016-04-01
Auroral geomagnetic indices coupled with in situ solar wind monitors provide a comprehensive data set, spanning several solar cycles. Space climate can be considered as the distribution of space weather. We can then characterize these observations in terms of changing space climate by quantifying how the statistical properties of ensembles of these observed variables vary between different phases of the solar cycle. We first consider the AE index burst distribution. Bursts are constructed by thresholding the AE time series; the size of a burst is the sum of the excess in the time series for each time interval over which the threshold is exceeded. The distribution of burst sizes is two component with a crossover in behaviour at thresholds ≈ 1000 nT. Above this threshold, we find[1] a range over which the mean burst size is almost constant with threshold for both solar maxima and minima. The burst size distribution of the largest events has a functional form which is exponential. The relative likelihood of these large events varies from one solar maximum and minimum to the next. If the relative overall activity of a solar maximum/minimum can be estimated, these results then constrain the likelihood of extreme events of a given size for that solar maximum/minimum. We next develop and apply a methodology to quantify how the full distribution of geomagnetic indices and upstream solar wind observables are changing between and across different solar cycles. This methodology[2] estimates how different quantiles of the distribution, or equivalently, how the return times of events of a given size, are changing. [1] Hush, P., S. C. Chapman, M. W. Dunlop, and N. W. Watkins (2015), Robust statistical properties of the size of large burst events in AE, Geophys. Res. Lett.,42 doi:10.1002/2015GL066277 [2] Chapman, S. C., D. A. Stainforth, N. W. Watkins, (2013) On estimating long term local climate trends , Phil. Trans. Royal Soc., A,371 20120287 DOI:10.1098/rsta.2012.0287
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dorman, L. I.; Pustil'Nik, L. A.; Yom Din, G.
2003-04-01
The database of Professor Rogers (1887), which includes wheat prices in England in the Middle Ages (1249-1703) was used to search for possible manifestations of solar activity and cosmic ray intensity variations. The main object of our statistical analysis is investigation of bursts of prices. Our study shows that bursts and troughs of wheat prices take place at extreme states (maximums or minimums) of solar activity cycles. We present a conceptual model of possible modes for sensitivity of wheat prices to weather conditions, caused by cosmic ray intensity solar cycle variations, and compare the expected price fluctuations with wheat price variations recorded in the Medieval England. We compared statistical properties of the intervals between price bursts with statistical properties of the intervals between extremes (minimums) of solar cycles during the years 1700-2000. The medians of both samples have the values of 11.00 and 10.7 years; standard deviations are 1.44 and 1.53 years for prices and for solar activity, respectively. The hypothesis that the frequency distributions are the same for both of the samples have significance level >95%. In the next step we analyzed direct links between wheat prices and cosmic ray cycle variations in the 17th Century, for which both wheat prices and cosmic ray intensity (derived from Be-10 isotope data) are available. We show that for all seven solar activity minimums (cosmic ray intensity maximums) the observed prices were higher than prices for the seven intervals of maximal solar activity (100% sign correlation). This result, combined with the conclusion of similarity of statistical properties of the price and solar activity extremes can be considered as direct evidence of a causal connection between wheat prices bursts and solar activity/cosmic ray intensity extremes.
The Plasma Environment Associated With Equatorial Ionospheric Irregularities
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Smith, Jonathon M.; Heelis, R. A.
2018-02-01
We examine the density structure of equatorial depletions referred to here as equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs). Data recorded by the Ion Velocity Meter as part of the Coupled Ion Neutral Dynamics Investigation (CINDI) aboard the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite are used to study EPBs from 1600 to 0600 h local time at altitudes from 350 to 850 km. The data are taken during the 7 years from 2008 to 2014, more than one half of a magnetic solar cycle, that include solar minimum and a moderate solar maximum. Using a rolling ball algorithm, EPBs are identified by profiles in the plasma density, each having a depth measured as the percent change between the background and minimum density (ΔN/N). During solar moderate activity bubbles observed in the topside postsunset sector are more likely to have large depths compared to those observed in the topside postmidnight sector. Large bubble depths can be observed near 350 km in the bottomside F region in the postsunset period. Conversely at solar minimum the distribution of depths is similar in the postsunset and postmidnight sectors in all longitude sectors. Deep bubbles are rarely observed in the topside postsunset sector and never in the bottomside above 400 km in altitude. We suggest that these features result from the vertical drift of the plasma for these two solar activity levels. These drift conditions affect both the background density in which bubbles are embedded and the growth rate of perturbations in the bottomside where bubbles originate.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Azcárate, T.; Mendoza, B.; Levi, J. R.
2016-11-01
We performed a study of the systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) arterial blood pressure behavior under natural variables such as the atmospheric pressure (AtmP) and the horizontal geomagnetic field component (H). We worked with a sample of 304 healthy normotense volunteers, 152 men and 152 women, with ages between 18 and 84 years in Mexico City during the period 2008-2014, corresponding to the minimum, ascending and maximum phases of the solar cycle 24. The data was divided by gender, age and day/night cycle. We studied the time series using three methods: Correlations, bivariate and superposed epochs (within a window of three days around the day of occurrence of a geomagnetic storm) analysis, between the SBP and DBP and the natural variables (AtmP and H). The correlation analysis indicated correlation between the SBP and DBP and AtmP and H, being the largest during the night. Furthermore, the correlation and bivariate analysis showed that the largest correlations are between the SBP and DBP and the AtmP. The superposed epoch analysis found that the largest number of significant SBP and DBP changes occurred for women. Finally, the blood pressure changes are larger during the solar minimum and ascending solar cycle phases than during the solar maximum; the storms of the minimum were more intense than those of the maximum and this could be the reason of behavior of the blood pressure changes along the solar cycle.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ozturk, D. S.; Zou, S.; Ridley, A. J.; Slavin, J. A.
2018-04-01
The global magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system is intrinsically coupled and susceptible to external drivers such as solar wind dynamic pressure enhancements. In order to understand the large-scale dynamic processes in the magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system due to the compression from the solar wind, the 17 March 2015 sudden commencement was studied in detail using global numerical models. This storm was one of the most geoeffective events of the solar cycle 24 with a minimum Dst of -222 nT. The Wind spacecraft recorded a 10-nPa increment in the solar wind dynamic pressure, while the interplanetary magnetic field BZ became further northward. The University of Michigan Block-Adaptive-Tree Solar wind Roe-type Upwind Scheme global magnetohydrodynamic code was utilized to study the generation and propagation of perturbations associated with the compression of the magnetosphere system. In addition, the high-resolution electric potential and auroral power output from the magnetohydrodynamic model was used to drive the global ionosphere-thermosphere model to investigate the ionosphere-thermosphere system response to pressure enhancement. During the compression, the electric potentials and convection patterns in the polar ionosphere were significantly altered when the preliminary impulse and main impulse field-aligned currents moved from dayside to nightside. As a result of enhanced frictional heating, plasma and neutral temperatures increased at the locations where the flow speeds were enhanced, whereas the electron density dropped at these locations. In particular, the region between the preliminary impulse and main impulse field-aligned currents experienced the most significant heating with 1000-K ion temperature increase and 20-K neutral temperature increase within 2 min. Comparison of the simulation results with the Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar observations showed reasonable agreements despite underestimated magnitudes.
Fluctuations in Tree Ring Cellulose d18O during the Little Ice Age Correlate with Solar Activity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yamaguchi, Y. T.; Yokoyama, Y.; Miyahara, H.; Nakatsuka, T.
2008-12-01
The Maunder Minimum (AD1645-1715), when sunspots became exceedingly rare, is known to coincide with the coldest period during the Little Ice Age. This is a useful period to investigate possible linkage between solar activity and climate because variation in solar activity was different from that of today. The solar cycle length was longer (14 and 28 years) than that of today (11 and 22 years) hence any climate archives that have similar periodic changes could be separated from other internal climate forcing. We have reported that Greenland temperature variations coincided with decadal-scale variability in solar activity during the Maunder Minimum (Miyahara et al. 2008). Here we report interannual and intra-annual relative humidity (RH) variations in central Japan during that period, using tree ring cellulose d18O in a 382-year-old Japanese cedar tree (Cryptomeria japonica). The isotopic composition of tree rings can be a powerful tool to study the relationship between solar activity and climate, because we can directly compare solar activity (D14C) and climate (d18O) with little dating error. The climate proxy obtained using tree ring cellulose d18O is correlated both negatively and positively with RH and d18O in precipitation, respectively. Since d18O in precipitation is negatively correlated with the amount of precipitation in the monsoon area, tree ring cellulose d18O can be a reliable proxy for past RH and/or amount of precipitation in the area of the interest. Tree ring cellulose d18O of the cedar tree during AD1938-1998 in fact correlates significantly with the mean RH in June in central Japan. Tree ring d18O inferred RH variability during the Maunder Minimum shows distinct high RH spikes with an approximate 14-year quasiperiodicity. All nine solar minima during AD1640-1756 deduced from tree ring D14C coincided with high RH spikes, and seven of which coincided within 1-year. Interannual RH variations also coincided with Greenland temperature during this period. These results suggest that weakening of solar activity at solar minima caused distinct hemispheric scale climate change during the Maunder Minimum. We discuss the mechanism in which the solar activity variation caused the climate change, based on intra-annual RH variability and further data analysis of interannual RH variability. H. Miyahara et al., Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 272, 1-2, 290-295 (2008).
Model for Solar Proton Risk Assessment
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Xapos, M. A.; Stauffer, C.; Gee, G. B.; Barth, J. L.; Stassinopoulos, E. G.; McGuire, R. E.
2004-01-01
A statistical model for cumulative solar proton event fluences during space missions is presented that covers both the solar minimum and solar maximum phases of the solar cycle. It is based on data from the IMP and GOES series of satellites that is integrated together to allow the best features of each data set to be taken advantage of. This allows fluence-energy spectra to be extended out to energies of 327 MeV.
Time Exceedances for High Intensity Solar Proton Fluxes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Xapsos, Michael A.; Stauffer, Craig A.; Jordan, Thomas M.; Adam, James H., Jr.; Dietrich, William F.
2011-01-01
A model is presented for times during a space mission that specified solar proton flux levels are exceeded. This includes both total time and continuous time periods during missions. Results for the solar maximum and solar minimum phases of the solar cycle are presented and compared for a broad range of proton energies and shielding levels. This type of approach is more amenable to reliability analysis for spacecraft systems and instrumentation than standard statistical models.
Periods of High Intensity Solar Proton Flux
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Xapsos, Michael A.; Stauffer, Craig A.; Jordan, Thomas M.; Adams, James H.; Dietrich, William F.
2012-01-01
Analysis is presented for times during a space mission that specified solar proton flux levels are exceeded. This includes both total time and continuous time periods during missions. Results for the solar maximum and solar minimum phases of the solar cycle are presented and compared for a broad range of proton energies and shielding levels. This type of approach is more amenable to reliability analysis for spacecraft systems and instrumentation than standard statistical models.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hathaway, D. H.
2000-01-01
A number of techniques for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle time scale are identified, described, and tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g,, regression and curve-fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month- by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but provide an estimate only of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides the most accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This precursor method gave a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154+21 for cycle 23. A mathematical function dependent upon the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude then describes the level of solar activity for the complete cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between recent activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast now gives a smoothed sunspot maximum of 140+20 for cycle 23. The success of the geomagnetic precursors in predicting future solar activity suggests that solar magnetic phenomena at latitudes above the sunspot activity belts are linked to solar activity, which occurs many years later in the lower latitudes.
The investigation of solar activity signals by analyzing of tree ring chronological scales
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nickiforov, M. G.
2017-07-01
The present study examines the ability of detecting short-cycles and global minima of solar activity by analyzing dendrochronologies. Starting with the study of Douglass, which was devoted to the question of climatic cycles and the growth of trees, it is believed that the analysis of dendrochronologies allows to detect the cycle of Wolf-Schwabe. According to his results, the cycle was absent during Maunder's minimum and appeared after its completion. Having checked Douglass's conclusions by using 10 dendrochronologies of yellow pines from Arizona, which cover the time period from 1600 to 1900, we have come to the opposite results. The verification shows that: a) none of the considered dendroscale allows to detect an 11-year cycle; 2) the behaviour of a short peroid-signal does not undergo significant changes before, during or after Maunder's minimum. A similar attempt to detect global minima of solar activity by using five dendrochronologies from different areas has not led to positive results. On the one hand, the signal of global extremum is not always recorded in dendrochronology, on the other hand, the deep depression of annual rings allows to suppose the existence of a global minimum of solar activity, which is actually absent.
THE CHROMOSPHERIC SOLAR MILLIMETER-WAVE CAVITY ORIGINATES IN THE TEMPERATURE MINIMUM REGION
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
De la Luz, Victor; Raulin, Jean-Pierre; Lara, Alejandro
2013-01-10
We present a detailed theoretical analysis of the local radio emission at the lower part of the solar atmosphere. To accomplish this, we have used a numerical code to simulate the emission and transport of high-frequency electromagnetic waves from 2 GHz up to 10 THz. As initial conditions, we used VALC, SEL05, and C7 solar chromospheric models. In this way, the generated synthetic spectra allow us to study the local emission and absorption processes with high resolution in both altitude and frequency. Associated with the temperature minimum predicted by these models, we found that the local optical depth at millimetermore » wavelengths remains constant, producing an optically thin layer that is surrounded by two layers of high local emission. We call this structure the Chromospheric Solar Millimeter-wave Cavity (CSMC). The temperature profile, which features temperature minimum layers and a subsequent temperature rise, produces the CSMC phenomenon. The CSMC shows the complexity of the relation between the theoretical temperature profile and the observed brightness temperature and may help us to understand the dispersion of the observed brightness temperature in the millimeter wavelength range.« less
NAIRAS aircraft radiation model development, dose climatology, and initial validation.
Mertens, Christopher J; Meier, Matthias M; Brown, Steven; Norman, Ryan B; Xu, Xiaojing
2013-10-01
[1] The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a real-time, global, physics-based model used to assess radiation exposure to commercial aircrews and passengers. The model is a free-running physics-based model in the sense that there are no adjustment factors applied to nudge the model into agreement with measurements. The model predicts dosimetric quantities in the atmosphere from both galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles, including the response of the geomagnetic field to interplanetary dynamical processes and its subsequent influence on atmospheric dose. The focus of this paper is on atmospheric GCR exposure during geomagnetically quiet conditions, with three main objectives. First, provide detailed descriptions of the NAIRAS GCR transport and dosimetry methodologies. Second, present a climatology of effective dose and ambient dose equivalent rates at typical commercial airline altitudes representative of solar cycle maximum and solar cycle minimum conditions and spanning the full range of geomagnetic cutoff rigidities. Third, conduct an initial validation of the NAIRAS model by comparing predictions of ambient dose equivalent rates with tabulated reference measurement data and recent aircraft radiation measurements taken in 2008 during the minimum between solar cycle 23 and solar cycle 24. By applying the criterion of the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) on acceptable levels of aircraft radiation dose uncertainty for ambient dose equivalent greater than or equal to an annual dose of 1 mSv, the NAIRAS model is within 25% of the measured data, which fall within the ICRU acceptable uncertainty limit of 30%. The NAIRAS model predictions of ambient dose equivalent rate are generally within 50% of the measured data for any single-point comparison. The largest differences occur at low latitudes and high cutoffs, where the radiation dose level is low. Nevertheless, analysis suggests that these single-point differences will be within 30% when a new deterministic pion-initiated electromagnetic cascade code is integrated into NAIRAS, an effort which is currently underway.
NAIRAS aircraft radiation model development, dose climatology, and initial validation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mertens, Christopher J.; Meier, Matthias M.; Brown, Steven; Norman, Ryan B.; Xu, Xiaojing
2013-10-01
The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a real-time, global, physics-based model used to assess radiation exposure to commercial aircrews and passengers. The model is a free-running physics-based model in the sense that there are no adjustment factors applied to nudge the model into agreement with measurements. The model predicts dosimetric quantities in the atmosphere from both galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles, including the response of the geomagnetic field to interplanetary dynamical processes and its subsequent influence on atmospheric dose. The focus of this paper is on atmospheric GCR exposure during geomagnetically quiet conditions, with three main objectives. First, provide detailed descriptions of the NAIRAS GCR transport and dosimetry methodologies. Second, present a climatology of effective dose and ambient dose equivalent rates at typical commercial airline altitudes representative of solar cycle maximum and solar cycle minimum conditions and spanning the full range of geomagnetic cutoff rigidities. Third, conduct an initial validation of the NAIRAS model by comparing predictions of ambient dose equivalent rates with tabulated reference measurement data and recent aircraft radiation measurements taken in 2008 during the minimum between solar cycle 23 and solar cycle 24. By applying the criterion of the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) on acceptable levels of aircraft radiation dose uncertainty for ambient dose equivalent greater than or equal to an annual dose of 1 mSv, the NAIRAS model is within 25% of the measured data, which fall within the ICRU acceptable uncertainty limit of 30%. The NAIRAS model predictions of ambient dose equivalent rate are generally within 50% of the measured data for any single-point comparison. The largest differences occur at low latitudes and high cutoffs, where the radiation dose level is low. Nevertheless, analysis suggests that these single-point differences will be within 30% when a new deterministic pion-initiated electromagnetic cascade code is integrated into NAIRAS, an effort which is currently underway.
NAIRAS aircraft radiation model development, dose climatology, and initial validation
Mertens, Christopher J; Meier, Matthias M; Brown, Steven; Norman, Ryan B; Xu, Xiaojing
2013-01-01
[1] The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a real-time, global, physics-based model used to assess radiation exposure to commercial aircrews and passengers. The model is a free-running physics-based model in the sense that there are no adjustment factors applied to nudge the model into agreement with measurements. The model predicts dosimetric quantities in the atmosphere from both galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles, including the response of the geomagnetic field to interplanetary dynamical processes and its subsequent influence on atmospheric dose. The focus of this paper is on atmospheric GCR exposure during geomagnetically quiet conditions, with three main objectives. First, provide detailed descriptions of the NAIRAS GCR transport and dosimetry methodologies. Second, present a climatology of effective dose and ambient dose equivalent rates at typical commercial airline altitudes representative of solar cycle maximum and solar cycle minimum conditions and spanning the full range of geomagnetic cutoff rigidities. Third, conduct an initial validation of the NAIRAS model by comparing predictions of ambient dose equivalent rates with tabulated reference measurement data and recent aircraft radiation measurements taken in 2008 during the minimum between solar cycle 23 and solar cycle 24. By applying the criterion of the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) on acceptable levels of aircraft radiation dose uncertainty for ambient dose equivalent greater than or equal to an annual dose of 1 mSv, the NAIRAS model is within 25% of the measured data, which fall within the ICRU acceptable uncertainty limit of 30%. The NAIRAS model predictions of ambient dose equivalent rate are generally within 50% of the measured data for any single-point comparison. The largest differences occur at low latitudes and high cutoffs, where the radiation dose level is low. Nevertheless, analysis suggests that these single-point differences will be within 30% when a new deterministic pion-initiated electromagnetic cascade code is integrated into NAIRAS, an effort which is currently underway. PMID:26213513
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schmidtke, G.; Nikutowski, B.; Jacobi, C.; Brunner, R.; Erhardt, C.; Knecht, S.; Scherle, J.; Schlagenhauf, J.
2014-05-01
SolACES is part of the ESA SOLAR ISS mission that started aboard the shuttle mission STS-122 on 7 February 2008. The instrument has recorded solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance from 16 to 150 nm during the extended solar activity minimum and the beginning solar cycle 24 with rising solar activity and increasingly changing spectral composition. The SOLAR mission has been extended from a period of 18 months to > 8 years until the end of 2016. SolACES is operating three grazing incidence planar grating spectrometers and two three-current ionization chambers. The latter ones are considered as primary radiometric detector standards. Re-filling the ionization chambers with three different gases repeatedly and using overlapping band-pass filters, the absolute EUV fluxes are derived in these spectral intervals. This way the serious problem of continuing efficiency changes in space-borne instrumentation is overcome during the mission. Evaluating the three currents of the ionization chambers, the overlapping spectral ranges of the spectrometers and of the filters plus inter-comparing the results from the EUV photon absorption in the gases with different absorption cross sections, there are manifold instrumental possibilities to cross-check the results providing a high degree of reliability to the spectral irradiance derived. During the mission a very strong up-and-down variability of the spectrometric efficiency by orders of magnitude is observed. One of the effects involved is channeltron degradation. However, there are still open questions on other effects contributing to these changes. A survey of the measurements carried out and first results of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) data are presented. Inter-comparison with EUV data from other space missions shows good agreement such that the international effort has started to elaborate a complete set of EUV-SSI data taking into account all data available from 2008 to 2013.
Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections in the Near-Earth Solar Wind During 1996-2002
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cane, H. V.; Richardson, I. G.
2003-01-01
We summarize the occurrence of interplanetary coronal mass injections (ICMEs) in the near-Earth solar wind during 1996-2002, corresponding to the increasing and maximum phases of solar cycle 23. In particular, we give a detailed list of such events. This list, based on in-situ observations, is not confined to subsets of ICMEs, such as magnetic clouds or those preceded by halo CMEs observed by the SOHO/LASCO coronagraph, and provides an overview of 214 ICMEs in the near-Earth solar wind during this period. The ICME rate increases by about an order of magnitude from solar minimum to solar maximum (when the rate is approximately 3 ICMEs/solar rotation period). The rate also shows a temporary reduction during 1999, and another brief, deeper reduction in late 2000-early 2001, which only approximately track variations in the solar 10 cm flux. In addition, there are occasional periods of several rotations duration when the ICME rate is enhanced in association with high solar activity levels. We find an indication of a periodic variation in the ICME rate, with a prominent period of approximately 165 days similar to that previously reported in various solar phenomena. It is found that the fraction of ICMEs that are magnetic clouds has a solar cycle variation, the fraction being larger near solar minimum. For the subset of events that we could associate with a CME at the Sun, the transit speeds from the Sun to the Earth were highest after solar maximum.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Hazra, Soumitra; Nandy, Dibyendu; Passos, Dário, E-mail: s.hazra@iiserkol.ac.in, E-mail: dariopassos@ist.utl.pt, E-mail: dnandi@iiserkol.ac.in
Fluctuations in the Sun's magnetic activity, including episodes of grand minima such as the Maunder minimum have important consequences for space and planetary environments. However, the underlying dynamics of such extreme fluctuations remain ill-understood. Here, we use a novel mathematical model based on stochastically forced, non-linear delay differential equations to study solar cycle fluctuations in which time delays capture the physics of magnetic flux transport between spatially segregated dynamo source regions in the solar interior. Using this model, we explicitly demonstrate that the Babcock-Leighton poloidal field source based on dispersal of tilted bipolar sunspot flux, alone, cannot recover the sunspotmore » cycle from a grand minimum. We find that an additional poloidal field source effective on weak fields—e.g., the mean-field α effect driven by helical turbulence—is necessary for self-consistent recovery of the sunspot cycle from grand minima episodes.« less
Solar Spectral Irradiance Variations in 240 - 1600 nm During the Recent Solar Cycles 21 - 23
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pagaran, J.; Weber, M.; Deland, M. T.; Floyd, L. E.; Burrows, J. P.
2011-08-01
Regular solar spectral irradiance (SSI) observations from space that simultaneously cover the UV, visible (vis), and the near-IR (NIR) spectral region began with SCIAMACHY aboard ENVISAT in August 2002. Up to now, these direct observations cover less than a decade. In order for these SSI measurements to be useful in assessing the role of the Sun in climate change, records covering more than an eleven-year solar cycle are required. By using our recently developed empirical SCIA proxy model, we reconstruct daily SSI values over several decades by using solar proxies scaled to short-term SCIAMACHY solar irradiance observations to describe decadal irradiance changes. These calculations are compared to existing solar data: the UV data from SUSIM/UARS, from the DeLand & Cebula satellite composite, and the SIP model (S2K+VUV2002); and UV-vis-IR data from the NRLSSI and SATIRE models, and SIM/SORCE measurements. The mean SSI of the latter models show good agreement (less than 5%) in the vis regions over three decades while larger disagreements (10 - 20%) are found in the UV and IR regions. Between minima and maxima of Solar Cycles 21, 22, and 23, the inferred SSI variability from the SCIA proxy is intermediate between SATIRE and NRLSSI in the UV. While the DeLand & Cebula composite provide the highest variability between solar minimum and maximum, the SIP/Solar2000 and NRLSSI models show minimum variability, which may be due to the use of a single proxy in the modeling of the irradiances. In the vis-IR spectral region, the SCIA proxy model reports lower values in the changes from solar maximum to minimum, which may be attributed to overestimations of the sunspot proxy used in modeling the SCIAMACHY irradiances. The fairly short timeseries of SIM/SORCE shows a steeper decreasing (increasing) trend in the UV (vis) than the other data during the descending phase of Solar Cycle 23. Though considered to be only provisional, the opposite trend seen in the visible SIM data challenges the validity of proxy-based linear extrapolation commonly used in reconstructing past irradiances.
Gaussianity versus intermittency in solar system plasma turbulence
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Echim, M.
2014-12-01
Statistical properties of plasma and magnetic field fluctuations exhibit features linked with the dynamics of the targeted system and sometimes with the physical processes that are at the origin of these fluctuations. Intermittency is sometimes discussed in terms of non-Gaussianity of the Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) of fluctuations for ranges of spatio/temporal scales. Some examples of self-similarity have been however shown for PDFs whose wings are not Gaussian. In this study we discuss intermittency in terms of non-Gaussianity as well as scale dependence of the higher order moments of PDFs, in particular the flatness. We use magnetic field and plasma data from several space missions, in the solar wind (Ulysses, Cluster, and Venus Express), and in the planetary magnetosheaths (Cluster and Venus Express). We analyze Ulysses data that satisfy a consolidated set of selection criteria able to identify "pure" fast and slow wind. We investigate Venus Express data close to the orbital apogee, in the solar wind, at 0.72 AU, and in the Venus magnetosheath. We study Cluster data in the solar wind (for time intervals not affected by planetary ions effects), and the magnetosheath. We organize our results in three solar wind data bases (one for the solar maximum, 1999-2001, two for the solar minimum, 1997-1998 and respectively, 2007-2008), and two planetary databases (one for the solar maximum, 2000-2001, that includes PDFs obtained in the terrestrial magnetosphere, and one for the solar minimum, 2007-2008, that includes PDFs obtained in the terrestrial and Venus magnetospheres and magnetosheaths). In addition to investigating the statistical properties of fluctuations for the minimum and maximum of the solar cycle we also analyze the similarities and differences between fast and slow wind. We emphasize the importance of our data survey and analysis in the context of understanding the solar wind turbulence and complexity, and the exploitation of data bases and as a first step towards developing a (virtual) laboratory for studying solar system plasma turbulence and intermittency. Research supported by the European FP7 Programme (grant agreement 313038/STORM), and a grant of the Romanian CNCS -UEFISCDI, project number PN-II-ID-PCE-2012-4-0418.
Transient flows of the solar wind associated with small-scale solar activity in solar minimum
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Slemzin, Vladimir; Veselovsky, Igor; Kuzin, Sergey; Gburek, Szymon; Ulyanov, Artyom; Kirichenko, Alexey; Shugay, Yulia; Goryaev, Farid
The data obtained by the modern high sensitive EUV-XUV telescopes and photometers such as CORONAS-Photon/TESIS and SPHINX, STEREO/EUVI, PROBA2/SWAP, SDO/AIA provide good possibilities for studying small-scale solar activity (SSA), which is supposed to play an important role in heating of the corona and producing transient flows of the solar wind. During the recent unusually weak solar minimum, a large number of SSA events, such as week solar flares, small CMEs and CME-like flows were observed and recorded in the databases of flares (STEREO, SWAP, SPHINX) and CMEs (LASCO, CACTUS). On the other hand, the solar wind data obtained in this period by ACE, Wind, STEREO contain signatures of transient ICME-like structures which have shorter duration (<10h), weaker magnetic field strength (<10 nT) and lower proton temperature than usual ICMEs. To verify the assumption that ICME-like transients may be associated with the SSA events we investigated the number of weak flares of C-class and lower detected by SPHINX in 2009 and STEREO/EUVI in 2010. The flares were classified on temperature and emission measure using the diagnostic means of SPHINX and Hinode/EIS and were confronted with the parameters of the solar wind (velocity, density, ion composition and temperature, magnetic field, pitch angle distribution of the suprathermal electrons). The outflows of plasma associated with the flares were identified by their coronal signatures - CMEs (only in few cases) and dimmings. It was found that the mean parameters of the solar wind projected to the source surface for the times of the studied flares were typical for the ICME-like transients. The results support the suggestion that weak flares can be indicators of sources of transient plasma flows contributing to the slow solar wind at solar minimum, although these flows may be too weak to be considered as separate CMEs and ICMEs. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for Research, Technological Development and Demonstration under Grant Agreement “eHeroes” (project n° 284461, www.eheroes.eu).
Radiation measurements on the Mir Orbital Station.
Badhwar, G D; Atwell, W; Reitz, G; Beaujean, R; Heinrich, W
2002-10-01
Radiation measurements made onboard the MIR Orbital Station have spanned nearly a decade and covered two solar cycles, including one of the largest solar particle events, one of the largest magnetic storms, and a mean solar radio flux level reaching 250 x 10(4) Jansky that has been observed in the last 40 years. The cosmonaut absorbed dose rates varied from about 450 microGy day-1 during solar minimum to approximately half this value during the last solar maximum. There is a factor of about two in dose rate within a given module, and a similar variation from module to module. The average radiation quality factor during solar minimum, using the ICRP-26 definition, was about 2.4. The drift of the South Atlantic Anomaly was measured to be 6.0 +/- 0.5 degrees W, and 1.6 +/- 0.5 degrees N. These measurements are of direct applicability to the International Space Station. This paper represents a comprehensive review of Mir Space Station radiation data available from a variety of sources. c2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Activity associated with coronal mass ejections at solar minimum - SMM observations from 1984-1986
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
St. Cyr, O. C.; Webb, D. F.
1991-01-01
Seventy-three coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by the coronagraph aboard SMM between 1984 and 1986 were examined in order to determine the distribution of various forms of solar activity that were spatially and temporally associated with mass ejections during solar minimum phase. For each coronal mass ejection a speed was measured, and the departure time of the transient from the lower corona estimated. Other forms of solar activity that appeared within 45 deg longitude and 30 deg latitude of the mass ejection and within +/-90 min of its extrapolated departure time were explored. The statistical results of the analysis of these 73 CMEs are presented, and it is found that slightly less than half of them were infrequently associated with other forms of solar activity. It is suggested that the distribution of the various forms of activity related to CMEs does not change at different phases of the solar cycle. For those CMEs with associations, it is found that eruptive prominences and soft X-rays were the most likely forms of activity to accompany the appearance of mass ejections.
A Relationship Between the Solar Rotation and Activity Analysed by Tracing Sunspot Groups
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ruždjak, Domagoj; Brajša, Roman; Sudar, Davor; Skokić, Ivica; Poljančić Beljan, Ivana
2017-12-01
The sunspot position published in the data bases of the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR), the US Air Force Solar Optical Observing Network and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USAF/NOAA), and of the Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) in the period 1874 to 2016 were used to calculate yearly values of the solar differential-rotation parameters A and B. These differential-rotation parameters were compared with the solar-activity level. We found that the Sun rotates more differentially at the minimum than at the maximum of activity during the epoch 1977 - 2016. An inverse correlation between equatorial rotation and solar activity was found using the recently revised sunspot number. The secular decrease of the equatorial rotation rate that accompanies the increase in activity stopped in the last part of the twentieth century. It was noted that when a significant peak in equatorial rotation velocity is observed during activity minimum, the next maximum is weaker than the previous one.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Alania, M. V.; Aslamazashvili, R. G.; Bochorishvili, T.; Djapiashvili, T. V.; Tkemaladze, V. S.
1985-01-01
Results of the numerical solution of the anistoropic diffusion equation are presented. The modulation depth of galactic cosmic rays is defined by the degree of curvature of the neutral current sheet in the heliosphere. The effect of the regular interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) on cosmic ray anisotropy in the period of solar activity minimum (in 1976) is analyzed by the data of the neutron super-monitors of the world network, and the heliolatitudinal gradient and cosmic ray diffusion coefficient are defined.
Galactic cosmic ray transport methods and radiation quality issues
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Townsend, L. W.; Wilson, J. W.; Cucinotta, F. A.; Shinn, J. L.
1992-01-01
An overview of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) interaction and transport methods, as implemented in the Langley Research Center GCR transport code, is presented. Representative results for solar minimum, exo-magnetospheric GCR dose equivalents in water are presented on a component by component basis for various thicknesses of aluminum shielding. The impact of proposed changes to the currently used quality factors on exposure estimates and shielding requirements are quantified. Using the cellular track model of Katz, estimates of relative biological effectiveness (RBE) for the mixed GCR radiation fields are also made.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Ebert, R. W.; Dayeh, M. A.; Desai, M. I.
2013-05-10
We examined solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) observations from Ulysses' first and third orbits to study hemispheric differences in the properties of the solar wind and IMF originating from the Sun's large polar coronal holes (PCHs) during the declining and minimum phase of solar cycles 22 and 23. We identified hemispheric asymmetries in several parameters, most notably {approx}15%-30% south-to-north differences in averages for the solar wind density, mass flux, dynamic pressure, and energy flux and the radial and total IMF magnitudes. These differences were driven by relatively larger, more variable solar wind density and radial IMF betweenmore » {approx}36 Degree-Sign S-60 Degree-Sign S during the declining phase of solar cycles 22 and 23. These observations indicate either a hemispheric asymmetry in the PCH output during the declining and minimum phase of solar cycles 22 and 23 with the southern hemisphere being more active than its northern counterpart, or a solar cycle effect where the PCH output in both hemispheres is enhanced during periods of higher solar activity. We also report a strong linear correlation between these solar wind and IMF parameters, including the periods of enhanced PCH output, that highlight the connection between the solar wind mass and energy output and the Sun's magnetic field. That these enhancements were not matched by similar sized variations in solar wind speed points to the mass and energy responsible for these increases being added to the solar wind while its flow was subsonic.« less
Geomagnetism during solar cycle 23: Characteristics
Zerbo, Jean-Louis; Amory-Mazaudier, Christine; Ouattara, Frédéric
2012-01-01
On the basis of more than 48 years of morphological analysis of yearly and monthly values of the sunspot number, the aa index, the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field, we point out the particularities of geomagnetic activity during the period 1996–2009. We especially investigate the last cycle 23 and the long minimum which followed it. During this period, the lowest values of the yearly averaged IMF (3 nT) and yearly averaged solar wind speed (364 km/s) are recorded in 1996, and 2009 respectively. The year 2003 shows itself particular by recording the highest value of the averaged solar wind (568 km/s), associated to the highest value of the yearly averaged aa index (37 nT). We also find that observations during the year 2003 seem to be related to several coronal holes which are known to generate high-speed wind stream. From the long time (more than one century) study of solar variability, the present period is similar to the beginning of twentieth century. We especially present the morphological features of solar cycle 23 which is followed by a deep solar minimum. PMID:25685427
Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, J.
2012-01-01
[1] Analysis is made of the geomagnetic-activityaaindex covering solar cycle 11 to the beginning of 24, 1868–2011. Autocorrelation shows 27.0-d recurrent geomagnetic activity that is well-known to be prominent during solar-cycle minima; some minima also exhibit a smaller amount of 13.5-d recurrence. Previous work has shown that the recent solar minimum 23–24 exhibited 9.0 and 6.7-d recurrence in geomagnetic and heliospheric data, but those recurrence intervals were not prominently present during the preceding minima 21–22 and 22–23. Using annual-averages and solar-cycle averages of autocorrelations of the historicalaadata, we put these observations into a long-term perspective: none of the 12 minima preceding 23–24 exhibited prominent 9.0 and 6.7-d geomagnetic activity recurrence. We show that the detection of these recurrence intervals can be traced to an unusual combination of sectorial spherical-harmonic structure in the solar magnetic field and anomalously low sunspot number. We speculate that 9.0 and 6.7-d recurrence is related to transient large-scale, low-latitude organization of the solar dynamo, such as seen in some numerical simulations.
The interplanetary and solar magnetic field sector structures, 1962 - 1968
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Jones, D. E.
1972-01-01
The interplanetary magnetic field sector structure was observed from late 1962 through 1968. During this time it has been possible to study the manner in which the sector pattern and its relation to the photospheric magnetic field configuration changes from solar minimum to solar maximum. Observations were also made relating sector boundaries to specific regions on the solar disk. These and other observations related to the solar origin of the interplanetary field are briefly reviewed.
On a thermonuclear origin for the 1980-81 deep light minimum of the symbiotic nova PU Vul
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Sion, Edward M.
1993-01-01
The puzzling 1980-81 deep light minimum of the symbiotic nova PU Vul is discussed in terms of a sequence of quasi-static evolutionary models of a hot, 0.5 solar mass white dwarf accreting H-rich matter at a rate 1 x 10 exp -8 solar mass/yr. On the basis of the morphological behavior of the models, it is suggested that the deep light minimum of PU Vul could have been the result of two successive, closely spaced, hydrogen shell flashes on an accreting white dwarf whose core thermal structure and accreted H-rich envelope was not in a long-term thermal 'cycle-averaged' steady state with the rate of accretion.
The structure of high-temperature solar flare plasma in non-thermal flare models
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Emslie, A. G.
1985-01-01
Analytic differential emission measure distributions have been derived for coronal plasma in flare loops heated both by collisions of high-energy suprathermal electrons with background plasma, and by ohmic heating by the beam-normalizing return current. For low densities, reverse current heating predominates, while for higher densities collisional heating predominates. There is thus a minimum peak temperature in an electron-heated loop. In contrast to previous approximate analyses, it is found that a stable reverse current can dominate the heating rate in a flare loop, especially in the low corona. Two 'scaling laws' are found which relate the peak temperature in the loop to the suprathermal electron flux. These laws are testable observationally and constitute a new diagnostic procedure for examining modes of energy transport in flaring loops.
2017-03-20
NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory sees the sun has been virtually spotless, as in no sunspots, a 11-day spotless stretch not seen since the last solar minimum many years ago. Movies are available at https://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA21582
Analysis of selected microflares observed by SphinX over the last minimum of solar activity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Siarkowski, Marek; Sylwester, Janusz; Sylwester, Barbara; Gryciuk, Magdalena
The Solar Photometer in X-rays (SphinX) was designed to observe soft X-ray solar emission in the energy range between 1 keV and 15 keV with the resolution better than 0.5 keV. The instrument operated from February until November 2009 aboard CORONAS-Photon satellite, during the phase of exceptionally low minimum of solar activity. Here we use SphinX data for analysis of selected microflare-class events. We selected events of unusual lightcurves or location. Our study involves determination of temporal characteristics (times of start, maximum and end of flares) and analysis of physical conditions in flaring plasma (temperature, emission measure). Dedicated method has been used in order to remove emission not related to flare. Supplementary information about morphology and evolution of investigated events has been derived from the analysis of XRT/Hinode and SECCHI /STEREO images.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bouzaki, Mohammed Moustafa; Chadel, Meriem; Benyoucef, Boumediene; Petit, Pierre; Aillerie, Michel
2016-07-01
This contribution analyzes the energy provided by a solar kit dedicated to autonomous usage and installed in Central Europa (Longitude 6.10°; Latitude 49.21° and Altitude 160 m) by using the simulation software PVSYST. We focused the analysis on the effect of temperature and solar irradiation on the I-V characteristic of a commercial PV panel. We also consider in this study the influence of charging and discharging the battery on the generator efficiency. Meteorological data are integrated into the simulation software. As expected, the solar kit provides an energy varying all along the year with a minimum in December. In the proposed approach, we consider this minimum as the lowest acceptable energy level to satisfy the use. Thus for the other months, a lost in the available renewable energy exists if no storage system is associated.
The relationship between solar activity and coronal hole evolution
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Nolte, J. T.; Davis, J. M.; Gerassimenko, M.; Krieger, A. S.; Solodyna, C. V.; Golub, L.
1978-01-01
The relationship between coronal hole evolution and solar active regions during the Skylab period is examined. A tendency is found for holes to grow or remain stable when the activity nearby, seen as calcium plages and bright regions in X-rays, is predominantly large, long-lived regions. It is also found that there is a significantly higher number of small, short-lived active regions, as indicated by X-ray bright points, in the vicinity of decaying holes than there is near other holes. This is interpreted to mean that holes disappear at least in part because they become filled with many small scale, magnetically closed, X-ray emitting features. This interpretation, together with the observation that the number of X-ray bright points was much larger near solar minimum than it was during the Skylab period, provides a possible explanation for the disappearance of the large, near-equatorial coronal holes at the time of solar minimum.
Decentralized and cost-effective solar water purification system for remote communities
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Abd-ur-Rehman, Hafiz M.; Shakir, Sehar; Atta-ur-Razaq; Saqib, Hamza; Tahir, Saad
2018-05-01
In this study, a modified stepped solar still is proposed for water desalination. The overall objective of this work is to develop and test the proposed still design to identify the productivity enhancement as compared to conventional basin type solar still. The proposed design takes the advantage of its stepped configuration that allows the water stream to maintain a minimum desirable water column height and the water flow through the stages under the force of gravity. A minimum water depth in the still results in a higher rate of evaporation. The still is also incorporated with Fresnel lens to increase the water temperature that eventually increases the rate of water evaporation. Another important aspect of this design is the incorporation of phase-change-material (PCM) to increase the operational hours of the solar still. Consequently, daily productivity of fresh water is increased.
Balancing Europe's wind power output through spatial deployment informed by weather regimes.
Grams, Christian M; Beerli, Remo; Pfenninger, Stefan; Staffell, Iain; Wernli, Heini
2017-08-01
As wind and solar power provide a growing share of Europe's electricity1, understanding and accommodating their variability on multiple timescales remains a critical problem. On weekly timescales, variability is related to long-lasting weather conditions, called weather regimes2-5, which can cause lulls with a loss of wind power across neighbouring countries6. Here we show that weather regimes provide a meteorological explanation for multi-day fluctuations in Europe's wind power and can help guide new deployment pathways which minimise this variability. Mean generation during different regimes currently ranges from 22 GW to 44 GW and is expected to triple by 2030 with current planning strategies. However, balancing future wind capacity across regions with contrasting inter-regime behaviour - specifically deploying in the Balkans instead of the North Sea - would almost eliminate these output variations, maintain mean generation, and increase fleet-wide minimum output. Solar photovoltaics could balance low-wind regimes locally, but only by expanding current capacity tenfold. New deployment strategies based on an understanding of continent-scale wind patterns and pan-European collaboration could enable a high share of wind energy whilst minimising the negative impacts of output variability.
Evolution of Multiscale Multifractal Turbulence in the Heliosphere
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Macek, W. M.; Wawrzaszek, A.
2009-04-01
The aim of this study is to examine the question of scaling properties of intermittent turbulence in the space environment. We analyze time series of velocities of the slow and fast speed streams of the solar wind measured in situ by Helios 2, Advanced Composition Explorer and Voyager 2 spacecraft in the inner and outer heliosphere during solar minimum and maximum at various distances from the Sun. To quantify asymmetric scaling of solar wind turbulence, we consider a generalized two-scale weighted Cantor set with two different scales describing nonuniform distribution of the kinetic energy flux between cascading eddies of various sizes. We investigate the resulting spectrum of generalized dimensions and the corresponding multifractal singularity spectrum depending on one probability measure parameter and two rescaling parameters, demonstrating that the multifractal scaling is often rather asymmetric. In particular, we show that the degree of multifractality for the solar wind during solar minimum is greater for fast streams velocity fluctuations than that for the slow streams; the fast wind during solar minimum may exhibit strong asymmetric scaling. Moreover, we observe the evolution of multifractal scaling of the solar wind in the outer heliosphere. It is worth noting that for the model with two different scaling parameters a much better agreement with the solar wind data is obtained, especially for the negative index of the generalized dimensions. Therefore we argue that there is a need to use a two-scale cascade model. Hence we propose this new more general model as a useful tool for analysis of intermittent turbulence in various environments. References [1] W. M. Macek and A. Szczepaniak, Generalized two-scale weighted Cantor set model for solar wind turbulence, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L02108, doi:10.1029/2007GL032263 (2008). [2] A. Szczepaniak and W. M. Macek, Asymmetric multifractal model for solar wind intermittent turbulence, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 15, 615-620 (2008), http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/15/615/2008/. [3] W. M. Macek and A. Wawrzaszek, Evolution of asymmetric multifractal scaling of solar wind turbulence in the outer heliosphere, J. Geophys. Res., A013795, doi:10.1029/2008JA013795, in press.
FORMING CHONDRITES IN A SOLAR NEBULA WITH MAGNETICALLY INDUCED TURBULENCE
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Hasegawa, Yasuhiro; Turner, Neal J.; Masiero, Joseph
Chondritic meteorites provide valuable opportunities to investigate the origins of the solar system. We explore impact jetting as a mechanism of chondrule formation and subsequent pebble accretion as a mechanism of accreting chondrules onto parent bodies of chondrites, and investigate how these two processes can account for the currently available meteoritic data. We find that when the solar nebula is ≤5 times more massive than the minimum-mass solar nebula at a ≃ 2–3 au and parent bodies of chondrites are ≤10{sup 24} g (≤500 km in radius) in the solar nebula, impact jetting and subsequent pebble accretion can reproduce a number ofmore » properties of the meteoritic data. The properties include the present asteroid belt mass, the formation timescale of chondrules, and the magnetic field strength of the nebula derived from chondrules in Semarkona. Since this scenario requires a first generation of planetesimals that trigger impact jetting and serve as parent bodies to accrete chondrules, the upper limit of parent bodies’ masses leads to the following implications: primordial asteroids that were originally ≥10{sup 24} g in mass were unlikely to contain chondrules, while less massive primordial asteroids likely had a chondrule-rich surface layer. The scenario developed from impact jetting and pebble accretion can therefore provide new insights into the origins of the solar system.« less
STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF ELEMENTAL ABUNDANCE RATIOS: OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Zhao, L.-L.; Zhang, H.
We statistically analyze the elemental galactic cosmic ray (GCR) composition measurements of elements 5 ≤ Z ≤ 28 within the energy range 30–500 MeV/nucleon from the CRIS instrument on board the ACE spacecraft in orbit about the L1 Lagrange point during the period from 1997 to 2014. Similarly to the last unusual solar minimum, the elevated elemental intensities of all heavy nuclei during the current weak solar maximum in 2014 are ∼40% higher than that of the previous solar maximum in 2002, which has been attributed to the weak modulation associated with low solar activity levels during the ongoing weakestmore » solar maximum since the dawn of space age. In addition, the abundance ratios of heavy nuclei with respect to elemental oxygen are generally independent of kinetic energy per nucleon in the energy region 60–200 MeV/nuc, in good agreement with previous experiments. Furthermore, the abundance ratios of most relatively abundant species, except carbon, exhibit considerable solar-cycle variation, which are obviously positively correlated with the sunspot numbers with about one-year time lag. We also find that the percentage variation of abundance ratios for most elements are approximately identical. These preliminary results provide valuable insights into the characteristics of elemental heavy nuclei composition and place new and significant constraints on future GCR heavy nuclei propagation and modulation models.« less
Steps towards understanding deep atmospheric heating in flares
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Mauas, Pablo J. D.; Machado, Marcos E.
1986-01-01
Different aspects of the heating of the deep solar atmosphere during flares, including temperature minimum enhancements and white light emission, are discussed. The proper treatment of H(-) radiative losses is discussed, and compared with previous studies, as well as a quantitative analysis of the ionizing effect of nonthermal particles and ultraviolet radiation. It is concluded that temperature minimum heating may be a natural consequence of the global radiation transport in flares. The implications of these results are discussed within the context of homogeneous and inhomogeneous models of the solar atmosphere.
Unusual Cosmic Ray Variations During the Forbush Decreases of June 2015
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Samara, E.; Smponias, A.; Lytrosyngounis, I.; Lingri, D.; Mavromichalaki, H.; Sgouropoulos, C.
2018-04-01
Although the current Solar Cycle 24 is characterized by low solar activity, an intense geomagnetic storm (G4) was recorded in June 2015. It was a complex phenomenon that began on 22 June 2015 as the result of intense solar activity, accompanied by several flares and coronal mass ejections that interacted with the Earth's magnetic field. A Forbush decrease was also recorded at the neutron monitors of the worldwide network, with an amplitude of 8.4%, and in its recovery phase, a second Forbush decrease followed, with an amplitude of 4.0% for cosmic rays of 10 GV obtained with the global survey method. The Dst index reached a minimum value of -204 nT that was detected on 23 June 2015 at 05:00 - 06:00 UT, while the Kp index reached the value eight. For our analysis, we used hourly cosmic-ray intensity data recorded by polar, mid-, and high-latitude neutron monitor stations obtained from the High Resolution Neutron Monitor Database. The cosmic-ray anisotropy variation at the ecliptic plane was also estimated and was found to be highly complex. We study and discuss the unusual and complex cosmic-ray and geomagnetic response to these solar events.
The vorticity of Solar photospheric flows on the scale of granulation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pevtsov, A. A.
2016-12-01
We employ time sequences of images observed with a G-band filter (λ4305Å) by the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) on board of Hinode spacecraft at different latitude along solar central meridian to study vorticity of granular flows in quiet Sun areas during deep minimum of solar activity. Using a feature correlation tracking (FCT) technique, we calculate the vorticity of granular-scale flows. Assuming the known pattern of vertical flows (upward in granules and downward in intergranular lanes), we infer the sign of kinetic helicity of these flows. We show that the kinetic helicity of granular flows and intergranular vortices exhibits a weak hemispheric preference, which is in agreement with the action of the Coriolis force. This slight hemispheric sign asymmetry, however, is not statistically significant given large scatter in the average vorticity. The sign of the current helicity density of network magnetic fields computed using full disk vector magnetograms from the Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) does not show any hemispheric preference. The combination of these two findings suggests that the photospheric dynamo operating on the scale of granular flows is non-helical in nature.
Current-Sheet Formation and Reconnection at a Magnetic X Line in Particle-in-Cell Simulations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Black, C.; Antiochos, S. K.; Hesse, M.; Karpen, J. T.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Zenitani, S.
2011-01-01
The integration of kinetic effects into macroscopic numerical models is currently of great interest to the heliophysics community, particularly in the context of magnetic reconnection. Reconnection governs the large-scale energy release and topological rearrangement of magnetic fields in a wide variety of laboratory, heliophysical, and astrophysical systems. We are examining the formation and reconnection of current sheets in a simple, two-dimensional X-line configuration using high-resolution particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations. The initial minimum-energy, potential magnetic field is perturbed by excess thermal pressure introduced into the particle distribution function far from the X line. Subsequently, the relaxation of this added stress leads self-consistently to the development of a current sheet that reconnects for imposed stress of sufficient strength. We compare the time-dependent evolution and final state of our PIC simulations with macroscopic magnetohydrodynamic simulations assuming both uniform and localized electrical resistivities (C. R. DeVore et al., this meeting), as well as with force-free magnetic-field equilibria in which the amount of reconnection across the X line can be constrained to be zero (ideal evolution) or optimal (minimum final magnetic energy). We will discuss implications of our results for understanding magnetic-reconnection onset and cessation at kinetic scales in dynamically formed current sheets, such as those occurring in the solar corona and terrestrial magnetotail.
Self consistent MHD modeling of the solar wind from coronal holes with distinct geometries
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Stewart, G. A.; Bravo, S.
1995-01-01
Utilizing an iterative scheme, a self-consistent axisymmetric MHD model for the solar wind has been developed. We use this model to evaluate the properties of the solar wind issuing from the open polar coronal hole regions of the Sun, during solar minimum. We explore the variation of solar wind parameters across the extent of the hole and we investigate how these variations are affected by the geometry of the hole and the strength of the field at the coronal base.
Modeling the superstorm in November 2003
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fok, Mei-Ching; Moore, Thomas E.; Slinker, Steve P.; Fedder, Joel A.; Delcourt, Dominique C.; Nosé, Masahito; Chen, Sheng-Hsien
2011-01-01
The superstorm on 20-21 November 2003 was the largest geomagnetic storm in solar cycle 23 as measured by Dst, which attained a minimum value of -422 nT. We have simulated this storm to understand how particles originating from the solar wind and ionosphere get access to the magnetosphere and how the subsequent transport and energization processes contribute to the buildup of the ring current. The global electromagnetic configuration and the solar wind H+ distribution are specified by the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) magnetohydrodynamics model. The outflow of H+ and O+ ions from the ionosphere are also considered. Their trajectories in the magnetosphere are followed by a test-particle code. The particle distributions at the inner plasma sheet established by the LFM model and test-particle calculations are then used as boundary conditions for a ring current model. Our simulations reproduce the rapid decrease of Dst during the storm main phase and the fast initial phase of recovery. Shielding in the inner magnetosphere is established at early main phase. This shielding field lasts several hours and then breaks down at late main phase. At the peak of the storm, strong penetration of ions earthward to L shell of 1.5 is revealed in the simulation. It is surprising that O+ is significant but not the dominant species in the ring current in our calculation for this major storm. It is very likely that substorm effects are not well represented in the models and O+ energization is underestimated. Ring current simulation with O+ energy density at the boundary set comparable to Geotail observations produces excellent agreement with the observed symH. As expected in superstorms, ring current O+ is the dominant species over H+ during the main to midrecovery phase of the storm.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hiltula, T.; Mursula, K.
2004-12-01
Several studies during many decennia have studied possible longitudinal and hemispherical asymmetries in various forms of solar activity. E.g., there are well known periods when one of the solar hemispheres has dominated the other in sunspot numbers, flare occurrence or some other form of solar activity. However, the solar asymmetries have not been found to be very conclusive, or to form any clear systematical patterns (e.g., relation to solar cycle). On the contrary, recent studies of similar longitudinal and hemispherical asymmetries in the heliospheric magnetic field have shown a very clear and systematic behaviour. E.g., it was found recently that the dominance of the two HMF sectors experiences an oscillation with a period of about 3.2 years. This new flip-flop periodicity in the heliospheric magnetic field is most likely related to a similar periodicity recently found in sunspots. Also, it has recently been found that the HMF sector coming from the northern solar hemisphere systematically dominates at 1AU during solar minimum times. This leads to a persistent southward shift or coning of the heliospheric current sheet at these times that can be picturesquely described by the concept of a Bashful Ballerina. This result also implies that the Sun has a large-scale quadrupole magnetic moment. Here we review these recent developments concerning the longitudinal and hemispherical asymmetries in the heliospheric magnetic field and study their inter-connection.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Das, Sonali; Banerjee, Chandan; Kundu, Avra; Dey, Prasenjit; Saha, Hiranmay; Datta, Swapan K.
2013-10-01
Antireflective coating on front glass of superstrate-type single junction amorphous silicon solar cells (SCs) has been applied using highly monodispersed and stable silica nanoparticles (NPs). The silica NPs having 300 nm diameter were synthesized by Stober technique where the size of the NPs was controlled by varying the alcohol medium. The synthesized silica NPs were analysed by dynamic light scattering technique and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. The NPs were spin coated on glass side of fluorinated tin oxide (SnO2: F) coated glass superstrate and optimization of the concentration of the colloidal solution, spin speed and number of coated layers was done to achieve minimum reflection characteristics. An estimation of the distribution of the NPs for different optimization parameters has been done using field-emission scanning electron microscopy. Subsequently, the transparent conducting oxide coated glass with the layer having the minimum reflectance is used for fabrication of amorphous silicon SC. Electrical analysis of the fabricated cell indicates an improvement of 6.5% in short-circuit current density from a reference of 12.40 mA cm-2 while the open circuit voltage and the fill factor remains unaltered. A realistic optical model has also been proposed to gain an insight into the system.
Estimates of galactic cosmic ray shielding requirements during solar minimum
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Townsend, Lawrence W.; Nealy, John E.; Wilson, John W.; Simonsen, Lisa C.
1990-01-01
Estimates of radiation risk from galactic cosmic rays are presented for manned interplanetary missions. The calculations use the Naval Research Laboratory cosmic ray spectrum model as input into the Langley Research Center galactic cosmic ray transport code. This transport code, which transports both heavy ions and nucleons, can be used with any number of layers of target material, consisting of up to five different arbitrary constituents per layer. Calculated galactic cosmic ray fluxes, dose and dose equivalents behind various thicknesses of aluminum, water and liquid hydrogen shielding are presented for the solar minimum period. Estimates of risk to the skin and the blood-forming organs (BFO) are made using 0-cm and 5-cm depth dose/dose equivalent values, respectively, for water. These results indicate that at least 3.5 g/sq cm (3.5 cm) of water, or 6.5 g/sq cm (2.4 cm) of aluminum, or 1.0 g/sq cm (14 cm) of liquid hydrogen shielding is required to reduce the annual exposure below the currently recommended BFO limit of 0.5 Sv. Because of large uncertainties in fragmentation parameters and the input cosmic ray spectrum, these exposure estimates may be uncertain by as much as a factor of 2 or more. The effects of these potential exposure uncertainties or shield thickness requirements are analyzed.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Mcintosh, P. S.
1975-01-01
Solar activity during the period October 28, 1964 through August 27, 1965 is presented in the form of charts for each solar rotation constructed from observations made with the chromospheric H-alpha spectra line. These H-alpha synoptic charts are identical in format and method of construction to those published for the period of Skylab observations. The sunspot minimum marking the start of Solar Cycle 20 occurred in October, 1964; therefore, charts represent solar activity during the first year of this solar cycle.
Magnetic reconnection in the low solar chromosphere with a more realistic radiative cooling model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ni, Lei; Lukin, Vyacheslav S.; Murphy, Nicholas A.; Lin, Jun
2018-04-01
Magnetic reconnection is the most likely mechanism responsible for the high temperature events that are observed in strongly magnetized locations around the temperature minimum in the low solar chromosphere. This work improves upon our previous work [Ni et al., Astrophys. J. 852, 95 (2018)] by using a more realistic radiative cooling model computed from the OPACITY project and the CHIANTI database. We find that the rate of ionization of the neutral component of the plasma is still faster than recombination within the current sheet region. For low β plasmas, the ionized and neutral fluid flows are well-coupled throughout the reconnection region resembling the single-fluid Sweet-Parker model dynamics. Decoupling of the ion and neutral inflows appears in the higher β case with β0=1.46 , which leads to a reconnection rate about three times faster than the rate predicted by the Sweet-Parker model. In all cases, the plasma temperature increases with time inside the current sheet, and the maximum value is above 2 ×104 K when the reconnection magnetic field strength is greater than 500 G. While the more realistic radiative cooling model does not result in qualitative changes of the characteristics of magnetic reconnection, it is necessary for studying the variations of the plasma temperature and ionization fraction inside current sheets in strongly magnetized regions of the low solar atmosphere. It is also important for studying energy conversion during the magnetic reconnection process when the hydrogen-dominated plasma approaches full ionization.
Berkeley Lab Sheds Light on Improving Solar Cell Efficiency
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
2007-07-20
Typical manufacturing methods produce solar cells with an efficiency of 12-15%; and 14% efficiency is the bare minimum for achieving a profit. In work performed at the Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley, CA, 5 10-486-577 1)--a US Department of Energy national laboratory that conducts unclassified scientific research and is managed by the University of California--scientist Scott McHugo has obtained keen insights into the impaired performance of solar cells manufactured from polycrystalline silicon. The solar cell market is potentially vast, according to Berkeley Lab. Lightweight solar panels are highly beneficial for providing electrical power to remote locations in developingmore » nations, since there is no need to build transmission lines or truck-in generator fuel. Moreover, industrial nations confronted with diminishing resources have active programs aimed at producing improved, less expensive solar cells. 'In a solar cell, there is a junction between p-type silicon and an n-type layer, such as diffused-in phosphorous', explained McHugo, who is now with Berkeley Lab's Accelerator and Fusion Research Division. 'When sunlight is absorbed, it frees electrons, which start migrating in a random-walk fashion toward that junction. If the electrons make it to the junction; they contribute to the cell's output of electric current. Often, however, before they reach the junction, they recombine at specific sites in the crystal' (and, therefore, cannot contribute to current output). McHugo scrutinized a map of a silicon wafer in which sites of high recombination appeared as dark regions. Previously, researchers had shown that such phenomena occurred not primarily at grain boundaries in the polycrystalline material, as might be expected, but more often at dislocations in the crystal. However, the dislocations themselves were not the problem. Using a unique heat treatment technique, McHugo performed electrical measurements to investigate the material at the dislocations. He was purportedly the first to show that they were 'decorated' with iron.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Meier, Matthias M.; Hubiak, Melina
2010-05-01
In radiation protection, the Q-factor has been defined to describe the biological effectiveness of the energy deposition or absorbed dose to humans in the mixed radiation fields at aviation altitudes. This particular radiation field is generated by the interactions of primary cosmic particles with the atoms of the constituents of the Earth’s atmosphere. Thus the intensity, characterized by the ambient dose equivalent rate H∗(10), depends on the flight altitude and the energy spectra of the particles, mainly protons and alpha particles, impinging on the atmosphere. These charged cosmic projectiles are deflected both by the interplanetary and the Earth’s magnetic field such that the corresponding energy spectra are modulated by these fields. The solar minimum is a time period of particular interest since the interplanetary magnetic field is weakest within the 11-year solar cycle and the dose rates at aviation altitudes reach their maximum due to the reduced shielding of galactic cosmic radiation. For this reason, the German Aerospace Center (DLR) performed repeated dosimetric on-board measurements in cooperation with several German airlines during the past solar minimum from March 2006 to August 2008. The Q-factors measured with a TEPC range from 1.98 at the equator to 2.60 in the polar region.
The solar and heliospheric imager (SoloHI) instrument for the solar orbiter mission
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Howard, Russell A.; Vourlidas, Angelos; Korendyke, Clarence M.; Plunkett, Simon P.; Carter, Michael T.; Wang, Dennis; Rich, Nathan; McMullin, Donald R.; Lynch, Sean; Thurn, Adam; Clifford, Greg; Socker, Dennis G.; Thernisien, Arnaud F.; Chua, Damien; Linton, Mark G.; Keller, David; Janesick, James R.; Tower, John; Grygon, Mark; Hagood, Robert; Bast, William; Liewer, Paulett C.; DeJong, Eric M.; Velli, Marco M. C.; Mikic, Zoran; Bothmer, Volker; Rochus, Pierre; Halain, Jean-Philippe; Lamy, Philippe L.
2013-09-01
The SoloHI instrument for the ESA/NASA Solar Orbiter mission will track density fluctuations in the inner heliosphere, by observing visible sunlight scattered by electrons in the solar wind. Fluctuations are associated with dynamic events such as coronal mass ejections, but also with the "quiescent" solar wind. SoloHI will provide the crucial link between the low corona observations from the Solar Orbiter instruments and the in-situ measurements on Solar Orbiter and the Solar Probe Plus missions. The instrument is a visible-light telescope, based on the SECCHI/Heliospheric Imager (HI) currently flying on the STEREO mission. In this concept, a series of baffles reduce the scattered light from the solar disk and reflections from the spacecraft to levels below the scene brightness, typically by a factor of 1012. The fluctuations are imposed against a much brighter signal produced by light scattered by dust particles (the zodiacal light/F-corona). Multiple images are obtained over a period of several minutes and are summed on-board to increase the signal-to-noise ratio and to reduce the telemetry load. SoloHI is a single telescope with a 40⁰ field of view beginning at 5° from the Sun center. Through a series of Venus gravity assists, the minimum perihelia for Solar Orbiter will be reduced to about 60 Rsun (0.28 AU), and the inclination of the orbital plane will be increased to a maximum of 35° after the 7 year mission. The CMOS/APS detector is a mosaic of four 2048 x 1930 pixel arrays, each 2-side buttable with 11 μm pixels.
A Process for Technology Prioritization in a Competitive Environment
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Stephens, Karen; Herman, Melody; Griffin, Brand
2006-01-01
This slide presentation reviews NASA's process for prioritizing technology requirements where there is a competitive environment. The In-Space Propulsion Technology (ISPT) project is used to exemplify the process. The ISPT project focuses on the mid level Technology Readiness Level (TRL) for development. These are TRL's 4 through 6, (i.e. Technology Development and Technology Demonstration. The objective of the planning activity is to identify the current most likely date each technology is needed and create ISPT technology development schedules based on these dates. There is a minimum of 4 years between flight and pacing mission. The ISPT Project needed to identify the "pacing mission" for each technology in order to provide funding for each area. Graphic representations show the development of the process. A matrix shows which missions are currently receiving pull from the both the Solar System Exploration and the Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmaps. The timeframes of the pacing missions technologies are shown for various types of propulsion. A pacing mission that was in the near future serves to increase the priority for funding. Adaptations were made when budget reductions precluded the total implementation of the plan.
Solar photospheric network properties and their cycle variation
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Thibault, K.; Charbonneau, P.; Béland, M., E-mail: kim@astro.umontreal.ca-a, E-mail: paulchar@astro.umontreal.ca-b, E-mail: michel.beland@calculquebec.ca-c
We present a numerical simulation of the formation and evolution of the solar photospheric magnetic network over a full solar cycle. The model exhibits realistic behavior as it produces large, unipolar concentrations of flux in the polar caps, a power-law flux distribution with index –1.69, a flux replacement timescale of 19.3 hr, and supergranule diameters of 20 Mm. The polar behavior is especially telling of model accuracy, as it results from lower-latitude activity, and accumulates the residues of any potential modeling inaccuracy and oversimplification. In this case, the main oversimplification is the absence of a polar sink for the flux,more » causing an amount of polar cap unsigned flux larger than expected by almost one order of magnitude. Nonetheless, our simulated polar caps carry the proper signed flux and dipole moment, and also show a spatial distribution of flux in good qualitative agreement with recent high-latitude magnetographic observations by Hinode. After the last cycle emergence, the simulation is extended until the network has recovered its quiet Sun initial condition. This permits an estimate of the network relaxation time toward the baseline state characterizing extended periods of suppressed activity, such as the Maunder Grand Minimum. Our simulation results indicate a network relaxation time of 2.9 yr, setting 2011 October as the soonest the time after which the last solar activity minimum could have qualified as a Maunder-type Minimum. This suggests that photospheric magnetism did not reach its baseline state during the recent extended minimum between cycles 23 and 24.« less
Turbulent Transport in a Three-dimensional Solar Wind
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Shiota, D.; Zank, G. P.; Adhikari, L.
2017-03-01
Turbulence in the solar wind can play essential roles in the heating of coronal and solar wind plasma and the acceleration of the solar wind and energetic particles. Turbulence sources are not well understood and thought to be partly enhanced by interaction with the large-scale inhomogeneity of the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field and/or transported from the solar corona. To investigate the interaction with background inhomogeneity and the turbulence sources, we have developed a new 3D MHD model that includes the transport and dissipation of turbulence using the theoretical model of Zank et al. We solve for themore » temporal and spatial evolution of three moments or variables, the energy in the forward and backward fluctuating modes and the residual energy and their three corresponding correlation lengths. The transport model is coupled to our 3D model of the inhomogeneous solar wind. We present results of the coupled solar wind-turbulence model assuming a simple tilted dipole magnetic configuration that mimics solar minimum conditions, together with several comparative intermediate cases. By considering eight possible solar wind and turbulence source configurations, we show that the large-scale solar wind and IMF inhomogeneity and the strength of the turbulence sources significantly affect the distribution of turbulence in the heliosphere within 6 au. We compare the predicted turbulence distribution results from a complete solar minimum model with in situ measurements made by the Helios and Ulysses spacecraft, finding that the synthetic profiles of the turbulence intensities show reasonable agreement with observations.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Damé, L.; Meftah, M.; Irbah, A.; Hauchecorne, A.; Bekki, S.; Bolsée, D.; Pereira, N.; Sluse, D.; Cessateur, G.
2017-12-01
Since April 5, 2008 and until February 15, 2017, the SOLSPEC (SOLar SPECtrometer) spectro-radiometer of the SOLAR facility on the International Space Station performed accurate measurements of Solar Spectral Irradiance (SSI) from the far ultraviolet to the infrared (165 nm to 3088 nm). These measurements, unique by their large spectral coverage and long time range, are of primary importance for a better understanding of solar physics and of the impact of solar variability on climate (via Earth's atmospheric photochemistry), noticeably through the "top-down" mechanism amplifying ultraviolet (UV) solar forcing effects on the climate (UV affects stratospheric dynamics and temperatures, altering interplanetary waves and weather patterns both poleward and downward to the lower stratosphere and troposphere regions). SOLAR/SOLSPEC, with almost 9 years of observations covering the essential of the unusual solar cycle 24 from minimum in 2008 to maximum, allowed to establish new reference solar spectra from UV to IR (165 to 3088 nm) at minimum (beginning of mission) and maximum of activity. The complete reanalysis was possible thanks to revised engineering corrections, improved calibrations and advanced procedures to account for thermal, aging and pointing corrections. The high quality and sensitivity of SOLSPEC data allow to follow temporal variability in UV but also in visible along the cycle. Uncertainties on these measurements are evaluated and results, absolute reference spectra and variability, are compared with other measurements (WHI, ATLAS-3, SCIAMACHY, SORCE/SOLSTICE, SORCE/SIM) and models (SATIRE-S, NRLSSI, NESSY)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Santos, Ângela M.; Abdu, Mangalathayil A.; Souza, Jonas R.; Batista, Inez S.; Sobral, José H. A.
2017-11-01
The influence of the recent deep and prolonged solar minimum on the daytime zonal and vertical plasma drift velocities during quiet time is investigated in this work. Analyzing the data obtained from incoherent scatter radar from Jicamarca (11.95° S, 76.87° W) we observe an anomalous behavior of the zonal plasma drift during June 2008 characterized by lower than usual daytime westward drift and its early afternoon reversal to eastward. As a case study the zonal drift observed on 24 June 2008 is modeled using a realistic low-latitude ionosphere simulated by the Sheffield University Plasmasphere-Ionosphere Model-INPE (SUPIM-INPE). The results show that an anomalously low zonal wind was mainly responsible for the observed anomalous behavior in the zonal drift. A comparative study of the vertical plasma drifts obtained from magnetometer data for some periods of maximum (2000-2002) and minimum solar activity (1998, 2008, 2010) phases reveal a considerable decrease on the E-region conductivity and the dynamo electric field during 2008. However, we believe that the contribution of these characteristics to the unusual behavior of the zonal plasma drift is significantly smaller than that arising from the anomalously low zonal wind. The SUPIM-INPE result of the critical frequency of the F layer (foF2) over Jicamarca suggested a lower radiation flux than that predicted by solar irradiance model (SOLAR2000) for June 2008.
Characteristics of spacecraft charging in low Earth orbit
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anderson, Phillip C.
2012-07-01
It has been found that the DMSP spacecraft at 840 km can charge to very large negative voltages (up to -2000 V) when encountering intense precipitating electron events (auroral arcs). We present an 11-year study of over 1600 charging events, defined as when the spacecraft charged to levels exceeding 100 V negative during an auroral crossing. The occurrence frequency of events was highly correlated with the 11-year solar cycle with the largest number of events occurring during solar minimum. This was due to the requirement that the background thermal plasma density be low, at most 104 cm-3. During solar maximum, the plasma density is typically well above that level due to the solar EUV ionizing radiation, and although the occurrence frequency of auroral arcs is considerably greater than at solar minimum, the occurrence of high-level charging is minimal. As a result of this study, we produced a model spectrum for precipitating electrons that can be used as a specification for the low-altitude auroral charging environment. There are implications from this study on a number of LEO satellite programs, including the International Space Station, which does enter the auroral zone, particularly during geomagnetic activity when the auroral boundary can penetrate to very low latitudes. The plasma density in the ISS orbit is usually well above the minimum required density for charging. However, in the wake of the ISS, the plasma density can be 2 orders of magnitude or more lower than the background density and thus conditions are ripe for charging.
Possible space weather influence on the Earth wheat prices
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pustil'Nik, L.; Yom Din, G.; Dorman, L.
We present development of our study of possible influence of space weather modulated by cycle of solar activity on the price bursts in the Earth markets In our previous works 1 2 we showed that correspondent response may have place in the specific locations characterized by a high sensitivity of the weather cloudiness in particular to cosmic ray variation b risk zone agriculture c isolated wheat market with limited external supply of agriculture production We showed that in this situation we may wait specific price burst reaction on unfavorable phase of solar activity and space weather what lead to corresponding abnormalities in the local weather and next crop failure We showed that main types of manifestation of this connection are a Distribution of intervals between price bursts must be like to the distribution of intervals between correspondent extremes of solar activity minimums or maximums b price asymmetry between opposite states of solar activity price in the one type of activity state is systematically higher then in the opposite one We showed in our previous publications that this influence in interval distribution is detected with high reliability in Mediaeval England 1250-1700 both for wheat prices and price of consumables basket We showed that for period of Maunder Minimum price asymmetry of wheat prices observed all prices in minimum state of solar activity was higher the prices in the next maximum state We showed later that this price asymmetry had place in 20-th century in USA durum prices too In
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Zhao, L.; Landi, E.; Zurbuchen, T. H.
2014-09-20
The solar wind can be categorized into three types based on its 'freeze-in' temperature (T {sub freeze-in}) in the coronal source: low T {sub freeze-in} wind mostly from coronal holes, high T {sub freeze-in} wind mostly from regions outside of coronal holes, including streamers (helmet streamer and pseudostreamer), active regions, etc., and transient interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) usually possessing the hottest T {sub freeze-in}. The global distribution of these three types of wind has been investigated by examining the most effective T {sub freeze-in} indicator, the O{sup 7+}/O{sup 6+} ratio, as measured by the Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometermore » on board the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) during 1998-2008 by Zhao et al. In this study, we extend the previous investigation to 2011 June, covering the unusual solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 (2007-2010) and the beginning of solar cycle 24. We find that during the entire solar cycle, from the ascending phase of cycle 23 in 1998 to the ascending phase of cycle 24 in 2011, the average fractions of the low O{sup 7+}/O{sup 6+} ratio (LOR) wind, the high O{sup 7+}/O{sup 6+} ratio (HOR) wind, and ICMEs at 1 AU are 50.3%, 39.4%, and 10.3%, respectively; the contributions of the three types of wind evolve with time in very different ways. In addition, we compare the evolution of the HOR wind with two heliospheric current sheet (HCS) parameters, which indicate the latitudinal standard deviation (SD) and the slope (SL) of the HCS on the synoptic Carrington maps at 2.5 solar radii surface. We find that the fraction of HOR wind correlates with SD and SL very well (slightly better with SL than with SD), especially after 2005. This result verifies the link between the production of HOR wind and the morphology of the HCS, implying that at least one of the major sources of the HOR wind must be associated with the HCS.« less
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Le Chat, G.; Cohen, O.; Kasper, J. C.
Polarized natural radio sources passing behind the Sun experience Faraday rotation as a consequence of the electron density and magnetic field strength in coronal plasma. Since Faraday rotation is proportional to the product of the density and the component of the magnetic field along the line of sight of the observer, a model is required to interpret the observations and infer coronal structures. Faraday rotation observations have been compared with relatively ad hoc models of the corona. Here for the first time we compare these observations with magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the solar corona driven by measurements of the photosphericmore » magnetic field. We use observations made with the NRAO Very Large Array of 34 polarized radio sources occulted by the solar corona between 5 and 14 solar radii. The measurements were made during 1997 May, and 2005 March and April. We compare the observed Faraday rotation values with values extracted from MHD steady-state simulations of the solar corona. We find that (1) using a synoptic map of the solar magnetic field just one Carrington rotation off produces poorer agreements, meaning that the outer corona changes in the course of one month, even in solar minimum; (2) global MHD models of the solar corona driven by photospheric magnetic field measurements are generally able to reproduce Faraday rotation observations; and (3) some sources show significant disagreement between the model and the observations, which appears to be a function of the proximity of the line of sight to the large-scale heliospheric current sheet.« less
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
AAI Corp., Baltimore, MD.
This report covers a two-year and seven-month solar space heating and cooling experiment conducted at the Timonium Elementary School, Timonium, Maryland. The system was designed to provide a minimum of 50 percent of the energy required during the heating season and to determine the feasibility of using solar energy to power absorption-type…
Inertial Range Turbulence of Fast and Slow Solar Wind at 0.72 AU and Solar Minimum
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Teodorescu, Eliza; Echim, Marius; Munteanu, Costel; Zhang, Tielong; Bruno, Roberto; Kovacs, Peter
2015-05-01
We investigate Venus Express observations of magnetic field fluctuations performed systematically in the solar wind at 0.72 Astronomical Units (AU), between 2007 and 2009, during the deep minimum of solar cycle 24. The power spectral densities (PSDs) of the magnetic field components have been computed for time intervals that satisfy the data integrity criteria and have been grouped according to the type of wind, fast and slow, defined for speeds larger and smaller, respectively, than 450 km s-1. The PSDs show higher levels of power for the fast wind than for the slow. The spectral slopes estimated for all PSDs in the frequency range 0.005-0.1 Hz exhibit a normal distribution. The average value of the trace of the spectral matrix is -1.60 for fast solar wind and -1.65 for slow wind. Compared to the corresponding average slopes at 1 AU, the PSDs are shallower at 0.72 AU for slow wind conditions suggesting a steepening of the solar wind spectra between Venus and Earth. No significant time variation trend is observed for the spectral behavior of both the slow and fast wind.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Klenzing, J.; Simoes, F.; Ivanov, S.; Bilitza, D.; Heelis, R. A.; Rowland, D.
2012-01-01
The recent availability of new data sets during the recent extreme solar minimum provides an opportunity for testing the performance of the International Reference Ionosphere in historically under-sampled regions. This study will present averages and variability of topside ionospheric densities over Africa as a function of season, local time, altitude, and magnetic dip latitude as measured by the Coupled Ion-Neutral Dynamics Investigation (CINDI) Mission of Opportunity on the C/NOFS satellite. The results will be compared to the three topside model options available in IRI-2007. Overall, the NeQuick model is found to have the best performance, though during the deepest part of the solar minimum all three options significantly overestimate density.
Exploring the sensitivity of current and future experiments to θ⊙
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bandyopadhyay, Abhijit; Choubey, Sandhya; Goswami, Srubabati
2003-06-01
The first results from the KamLAND experiment in conjunction with the global solar neutrino data have demonstrated the striking ability to constrain the Δm2⊙ (Δm221) very precisely. However the allowed range of θ⊙ (θ12) did not change much with the inclusion of the KamLAND results. In this paper we probe if future data from KamLAND can increase the accuracy of the allowed range in θ⊙ and conclude that even after 3 kton yr of statistics and with the most optimistic error estimates, KamLAND may find it hard to significantly improve the bounds on the mixing angle obtained from the solar neutrino data. We discuss the θ12 sensitivity of the survival probabilities in matter (vacuum) as relevant for the solar (KamLAND) experiments. We find that the presence of matter effects in the survival probabilities for 8B neutrinos gives the solar neutrino experiments SK and SNO an edge over KamLAND, as far as θ12 sensitivity is concerned, particularly near the maximal mixing. Among solar neutrino experiments we identify SNO as a most promising candidate for constraining θ12 and make a projected sensitivity test for the mixing angle by reducing the error in the neutral current measurement at SNO. Finally, we argue that the most accurate bounds on θ12 can be achieved in a reactor experiment, if the corresponding baseline and energy can be tuned to a minimum in the survival probability. We propose a new reactor experiment that can give the value of tan2θ12 to within 14%. We also discuss the future Borexino and LowNu experiments.
Upstream proton cyclotron waves at Venus near solar maximum
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Delva, M.; Bertucci, C.; Volwerk, M.; Lundin, R.; Mazelle, C.; Romanelli, N.
2015-01-01
magnetometer data of Venus Express are analyzed for the occurrence of waves at the proton cyclotron frequency in the spacecraft frame in the upstream region of Venus, for conditions of rising solar activity. The data of two Venus years up to the time of highest sunspot number so far (1 Mar 2011 to 31 May 2012) are studied to reveal the properties of the waves and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions under which they are observed. In general, waves generated by newborn protons from exospheric hydrogen are observed under quasi- (anti)parallel conditions of the IMF and the solar wind velocity, as is expected from theoretical models. The present study near solar maximum finds significantly more waves than a previous study for solar minimum, with an asymmetry in the wave occurrence, i.e., mainly under antiparallel conditions. The plasma data from the Analyzer of Space Plasmas and Energetic Atoms instrument aboard Venus Express enable analysis of the background solar wind conditions. The prevalence of waves for IMF in direction toward the Sun is related to the stronger southward tilt of the heliospheric current sheet for the rising phase of Solar Cycle 24, i.e., the "bashful ballerina" is responsible for asymmetric background solar wind conditions. The increase of the number of wave occurrences may be explained by a significant increase in the relative density of planetary protons with respect to the solar wind background. An exceptionally low solar wind proton density is observed during the rising phase of Solar Cycle 24. At the same time, higher EUV increases the ionization in the Venus exosphere, resulting in higher supply of energy from a higher number of newborn protons to the wave. We conclude that in addition to quasi- (anti)parallel conditions of the IMF and the solar wind velocity direction, the higher relative density of Venus exospheric protons with respect to the background solar wind proton density is the key parameter for the higher number of observable proton cyclotron waves near solar maximum.
Adverse Space Weather at the Solar Cycle Minimum
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Baker, D. N.; Kanekal, S. G.; McCollough, J. P.; Singer, H. J.; Chappell, S. P.; Allen, J. H.
2008-05-01
It is commonly understood that many types of adverse space weather (solar flares, coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic storms) occur most commonly around the maximum of the 11-year sunspot activity cycle. Other types of well-known space weather such as relativistic electron events in the Earth's outer magnetosphere (that produce deep dielectric charging in spacecraft systems) are usually associated with the period just after sunspot maximum. At the present time, we are in the very lowest activity phase of the sunspot cycle (solar minimum). As such we would not expect much in the way of adverse space weather events. However, in early to mid-February of 2008 quite prominent solar coronal holes produced two high-speed streams that in turn stimulated very large, long-duration relativistic electron enhancements in Earth's magnetosphere. These seem to have been associated with several spacecraft operational anomalies at various spacecraft orbital locations. We describe these recent space weather events and assess their operational significance in this presentation. These results show that substantial space weather events can and do occur even during the quietest parts of the solar cycle.
Structure and Dynamics of the 2009 July 22 Eclipse White-light Corona
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pasachoff, J. M.; Rušin, V.; Saniga, M.; Druckmüllerová, H.; Babcock, B. A.
2011-11-01
The white-light corona (WLC) during the total solar eclipse of 2009 July 22 was observed by several teams in the Moon's shadow stretching from India and China across the Pacific Ocean with its many isolated islands. We present a comparison of the WLC as observed by eclipse teams located in China (Shanghai region) and on the Enewetak Atoll in the Marshall Islands, with observations taken 112 minutes apart, combined with near-simultaneous space observations. The eclipse was observed at the beginning of solar cycle 24, during a deep solar minimum (officially estimated as 2008 December according to the smoothed sunspot number, but very extended). The solar corona shows several different types of features (coronal holes, polar rays, helmet streamers, faint loops, voids, etc.), though it was extremely sparse in streamers as shown from Large-Angle Spectroscopic Coronagraph data. No large-scale dynamical phenomena were seen when comparing the observations from the two sites, confirming that the corona was quiescent. We measure a Ludendorff flattening coefficient of 0.238, typical of solar minimum.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Grebowsky, J. M.; Hoegy, W. R.; Chen, T. C.
1993-01-01
Using a comprehensive ionospheric data set comprised of all available ion composition and plasma temperature measurements from satellites, the vertical distributions of ion composition and plasma temperatures are defined from middle latitudes up into the polar cap for summer conditions for altitudes below about 1200 km. These data are sufficient to allow a numerical estimation of the latitudinal variation of the light ion outflows from within the plasmasphere to the polar wind regions. The altitude at which significant light ion outflow begins is found to be lower during solar minimum conditions than during solar maximum. The H(+) outward speeds are of the order of 1 km/s near 1100 km during solar maximum but attain several km/s speeds for solar minimum. He(+) shows a similar altitude development of flow but attains polar cap speeds much less than 1 km/s at altitudes below 1100 km, particularly under solar maximum conditions. Outward flows are also found in the topside F-region for noontime magnetic flux tubes within the plasmasphere.
A model for solar constant secular changes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Schatten, Kenneth H.
1988-01-01
In this paper, contrast models for solar active region and global photospheric features are used to reproduce the observed Active Cavity Radiometer and Earth Radiation Budget secular trends in reasonably good fashion. A prediction for the next decade of solar constant variations is made using the model. Secular trends in the solar constant obtained from the present model support the view that the Maunder Minimum may be related to the Little Ice Age of the 17th century.
Automated array assembly task, phase 1
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Carbajal, B. G.
1977-01-01
State-of-the-art technologies applicable to silicon solar cell and solar cell module fabrication were assessed. The assessment consisted of a technical feasibility evaluation and a cost projection for high volume production of solar cell modules. Design equations based on minimum power loss were used as a tool in the evaluation of metallization technologies. A solar cell process sensitivity study using models, computer calculations, and experimental data was used to identify process step variation and cell output variation correlations.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nikutowski, B.; Brunner, R.; Erhardt, Ch.; Knecht, St.; Schmidtke, G.
2011-09-01
In the field of terrestrial climatology the continuous monitoring of the solar irradiance with highest possible accuracy is an important goal. SolACES as a part of the ESA mission SOLAR on the ISS is measuring the short-wavelength solar EUV irradiance from 16-150 nm. This data will be made available to the scientific community to investigate the impact of the solar irradiance variability on the Earth's climate as well as the thermospheric/ionospheric interactions that are pursued in the TIGER program. Since the successful launch with the shuttle mission STS-122 on February 7th, 2008, SolACES initially recorded the low EUV irradiance during the extended solar activity minimum. Thereafter it has been observing the EUV irradiance during the increasing solar activity with enhanced intensity and changing spectral composition. SolACES consists of three grazing incidence planar grating spectrometers. In addition there are two three-signal ionisation chambers, each with exchangeable band-pass filters to determine the absolute EUV fluxes repeatedly during the mission. One important problem of space-borne instrumentation recording the solar EUV irradiance is the degradation of the spectrometer sensitivity. The two double ionisation chambers of SolACES, which could be re-filled with three different gases for each recording, allow the recalibration of the efficiencies of the three SolACES spectrometers from time to time.
Adriani, O; Barbarino, G C; Bazilevskaya, G A; Bellotti, R; Boezio, M; Bogomolov, E A; Bongi, M; Bonvicini, V; Bottai, S; Bruno, A; Cafagna, F; Campana, D; Carlson, P; Casolino, M; Castellini, G; De Santis, C; Di Felice, V; Galper, A M; Karelin, A V; Koldashov, S V; Koldobskiy, S A; Krutkov, S Y; Kvashnin, A N; Leonov, A; Malakhov, V; Marcelli, L; Martucci, M; Mayorov, A G; Menn, W; Mergé, M; Mikhailov, V V; Mocchiutti, E; Monaco, A; Mori, N; Munini, R; Osteria, G; Panico, B; Papini, P; Pearce, M; Picozza, P; Ricci, M; Ricciarini, S B; Simon, M; Sparvoli, R; Spillantini, P; Stozhkov, Y I; Vacchi, A; Vannuccini, E; Vasilyev, G I; Voronov, S A; Yurkin, Y T; Zampa, G; Zampa, N; Potgieter, M S; Vos, E E
2016-06-17
Cosmic-ray electrons and positrons are a unique probe of the propagation of cosmic rays as well as of the nature and distribution of particle sources in our Galaxy. Recent measurements of these particles are challenging our basic understanding of the mechanisms of production, acceleration, and propagation of cosmic rays. Particularly striking are the differences between the low energy results collected by the space-borne PAMELA and AMS-02 experiments and older measurements pointing to sign-charge dependence of the solar modulation of cosmic-ray spectra. The PAMELA experiment has been measuring the time variation of the positron and electron intensity at Earth from July 2006 to December 2015 covering the period for the minimum of solar cycle 23 (2006-2009) until the middle of the maximum of solar cycle 24, through the polarity reversal of the heliospheric magnetic field which took place between 2013 and 2014. The positron to electron ratio measured in this time period clearly shows a sign-charge dependence of the solar modulation introduced by particle drifts. These results provide the first clear and continuous observation of how drift effects on solar modulation have unfolded with time from solar minimum to solar maximum and their dependence on the particle rigidity and the cyclic polarity of the solar magnetic field.
An Overview of Climatic Elements
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Crutcher, H. L.; Johnson, D. L.
2007-01-01
This Technical Publication (TP) addresses some climatic elements with emphasis on atmospheric composition, including gas radiative characteristics. Solar radiation is discussed with considerable information on the mathematical and statistical formulae. On a worldwide basis, temperature and precipitation for the globe are discussed along with interaction in drought. Also included is the simultaneous interaction with winds, humidity, and solar radiation. Volcanology gets minimum treatment. The oceans and seas are treated in chart form along with the interrelationship of oceanic currents and El Nino and La Nina, and ENSO phenomena. Upper air circulations are discussed. Various cloud formations up to 85-95 km altitude are described. Information on tornadoes and hurricanes is also included. One section is devoted to the climate physical-chemical elements. A short discussion is given on the importance for the quality of data and/or information in descriptions of the climate. This TP presents only an overview or survey of these and other various climatic elements.
Observed solar near UV variability: A contribution to variations of the solar constant
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
London, Julius; Pap, Judit; Rottman, Gary J.
1989-01-01
Continuous Measurements of the Solar UV have been made by an instrument on the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) since October 1981. The results for the wavelength interval 200 to 300 nm show an irradiance decrease to a minimum in early 1987 and a subsequent increase to mid-April 1989. The observed UV changes during part of solar cycles 21 to 22 represent approx. 35 percent (during the decreasing phase) and 25 percent (during the increasing phase) of the observed variations of the solar constant for the same time period as the SME measurements.
Solar Forcing of Regional Climate Change During the Maunder Minimum
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Shindell, Drew T.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Mann, Michael E.; Rind, David; Waple, Anne; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)
2002-01-01
We examine the climate response to solar irradiance changes between the late 17th century Maunder Minimum and the late 18th century. Global average temperature changes are small (about 0.3 to 0.4 C) in both a climate model and empirical reconstructions. However, regional temperature changes are quite large. In the model, these occur primarily through a forced shift toward the low index state of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation. This leads to colder temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere continents, especially in winter (1 to 2 C), in agreement with historical records and proxy data for surface temperatures.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Abe, K.; Fuke, H.; Haino, S.; Hams, T.; Hasegawa, M.; Horikoshi, A.; Kim, K. C.; Kusumoto, A.; Lee, M. H.; Makida, Y.;
2011-01-01
The energy spectrum of cosmic-ray antiprotons (p(raised bar)'s) collected by the BESS-Polar II instrument during a long-duration flight over Antarctica in the solar minimum period of December 2007 through January 2008. The p(raised bar) spectrum measured by BESS-Polar II shows good consistency with secondary p(raised bar) calculations. Cosmologically primary p(raised bar)'s have been searched for by comparing the observed and calculated p(raised bar) spectra. The BESSPolar II result shows no evidence of primary p(raised bar)'s originating from the evaporation of PBH.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Abe, K.; Fuke, H.; Haino, S.; Hams, T.; Hasegawa, M.; Horikoshi, A.; Kim, K. C.; Kusumoto, A.; Lee, M. H.; Makida, Y.;
2012-01-01
The energy spectrum of cosmic-ray antiprotons (p-bar's) from 0.17 to 3.5 GeV has been measured using 7886 p-bar's detected by BESS-Polar II during a long-duration flight over Antarctica near solar minimum in December 2007 and January 2008. This shows good consistency with secondary p-bar calculations. Cosmologically primary p-bar's have been investigated by comparing measured and calculated p-bar spectra. BESS-Polar II data.show no evidence of primary p-bar's from the evaporation of primordial black holes.
Solar-cycle Variations of Meridional Flows in the Solar Convection Zone Using Helioseismic Methods
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lin, Chia-Hsien; Chou, Dean-Yi
2018-06-01
The solar meridional flow is an axisymmetric flow in solar meridional planes, extending through the convection zone. Here we study its solar-cycle variations in the convection zone using SOHO/MDI helioseismic data from 1996 to 2010, including two solar minima and one maximum. The travel-time difference between northward and southward acoustic waves is related to the meridional flow along the wave path. Applying the ray approximation and the SOLA inversion method to the travel-time difference measured in a previous study, we obtain the meridional flow distributions in 0.67 ≤ r ≤ 0.96R ⊙ at the minimum and maximum. At the minimum, the flow has a three-layer structure: poleward in the upper convection zone, equatorward in the middle convection zone, and poleward again in the lower convection zone. The flow speed is close to zero within the error bar near the base of the convection zone. The flow distribution changes significantly from the minimum to the maximum. The change above 0.9R ⊙ shows two phenomena: first, the poleward flow speed is reduced at the maximum; second, an additional convergent flow centered at the active latitudes is generated at the maximum. These two phenomena are consistent with the surface meridional flow reported in previous studies. The change in flow extends all the way down to the base of the convection zone, and the pattern of the change below 0.9R ⊙ is more complicated. However, it is clear that the active latitudes play a role in the flow change: the changes in flow speed below and above the active latitudes have opposite signs. This suggests that magnetic fields could be responsible for the flow change.
Evolution of 3D electron density of the solar corona from the minimum to maximum of Solar Cycle 24
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Tongjiang; Reginald, Nelson L.; Davila, Joseph M.; St Cyr, O. C.
2016-10-01
The variability of the solar white-light corona and its connection to the solar activity has been studied for more than a half century. It is widely accepted that the temporal variation of the total radiance of the K-corona follows the solar cycle pattern (e.g., correlated with sunspot number). However, the origin of this variation and its relationships with regard to coronal mass ejections and the solar wind are yet to be clearly understood. COR1-A and -B instruments onboard the STEREO spacecraft have continued to perform high-cadence (5 min) polarized brightness (pB) measurements from two different vantage points from the solar minimum to the solar maximum of Solar Cycle 24. With these pB observations we have reconstructed the 3D coronal density between 1.5-4.0 solar radii for 100 Carrington rotations (CRs) from 2007 to 2014 using the spherically symmetric inversion (SSI) method. We validate these 3D density reconstructions by other means such as tomography, MHD modeling, and pB inversion of LASCO/C2 data. We analyze the solar cycle variations of total coronal mass (or average density) over the global Sun and in two hemispheres, as well as the variations of the streamer area and mean density. We find the short-term oscillations of 8-9 CRs during the ascending and maximum phases through wavelet analysis. We explore the origin of these oscillations based on evolution of the photospheric magnetic flux and coronal structures.
Equatorial temperature anomaly during solar minimum
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Suhasini, R.; Raghavarao, R.; Mayr, H. G.; Hoegy, W. R.; Wharton, L. E.
2001-11-01
We show evidence for the occurrence of the equatorial temperature anomaly (ETA) during solar minimum by analyzing the temperature and total ion density data from the Neutral Atmosphere Temperature Experiment (NATE) and the Cylindrical Electrostatic Probe (CEP), respectively, on board the Atmospheric Explorer-E satellite. The chosen data refer to a height of ~254 km in the African and Asian longitude sector (340.1°E-200°E) during a summer season in the Southern Hemisphere. As during the solar maximum period, the spatial characteristics of the ETA are similar to those of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). A minimum in the gas temperature is collocated with the minimum in the ion density at the dip equator, and a temperature maximum on the south side of the equator is collocated with the density maximum of the EIA. The daytime behavior of ETA formation is about the same as that of EIA as both of them are clearly present at around 1300 and 1400 local solar time (LST) only. At 1400 LST the difference between the temperatures at the crest and the trough (ETA strength) reaches a maximum value of about 100°K which is ~14% of the temperature at the trough. Like the EIA, the ETA also suddenly disappears after 1400 LST. Thus the EIA appears to be a prerequisite for the ETA formation. During the premidnight time (2200 LST), however, while the EIA is nonexistent, the temperature distribution forms a pattern opposite to that at 1400 LST in the daytime. It shows a maximum around the dip equator and a broad minimum at the daytime crest region where the postsunset cooling also is faster and occurs earlier than at the dip equator. This nighttime maximum appears to be related to the signature of the midnight temperature maximum (MTM). Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter (MSIS) model temperatures, in general, are higher than the observed average temperatures for the summer season and in particular for the region around the dip equator around noon hours.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Richardson, I. G.; Webb, D. F.; Zhang, J.; Berdichevsky, B. D.; Biesecker, D. A.; Kasper, J. C.; Kataoka, R.; Steinberg, J. T.; Thompson, B. J.; Wu, C.-C.;
2006-01-01
Seventy-nine major geomagnetic storms (minimum Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) observed in 1996 to 2004 were the focus of a Living with a Star Coordinated Data-Analysis Workshop (CDAW) in March, 2005. In 9 cases, the storm driver appears to have been purely a corotating interaction region (CIR) without any contribution from coronal mass ejection-related material (interplanetary coronal mass ejections, ICMEs). These storms were generated by structures within CIRs located both before and/or after the stream interface that included persistently southward magnetic fields for intervals of several hours. We compare their geomagnetic effects with those of 159 CIRs observed during 1996 - 2005. The major storms form the extreme tail of a continuous distribution of CIR geoeffectiveness which peaks at Dst approx. -40 nT but is subject to a prominent seasonal variation of - 40 nT which is ordered by the spring and fall equinoxes and the solar wind magnetic field direction towards or away from the Sun. The O'Brien and McPherron [2000] equations, which estimate Dst by integrating the incident solar wind electric field and incorporating a ring current loss term, largely account for the variation in storm size. They tend to underestimate the size of the larger CIR-associated storms by Dst approx. 20 nT. This suggests that injection into the ring current may be more efficient than expected in such storms. Four of the nine major storms in 1996 - 2004 occurred during a period of less than three solar rotations in September - November, 2002, also the time of maximum mean IMF and solar magnetic field intensity during the current solar cycle. The maximum CIR-storm strength found in our sample of events, plus additional 23 probable CIR-associated Dst less than or equal to -100 nT storms in 1972 - 1995, is (Dst = -161 nT). This is consistent with the maximum storm strength (Dst approx. -180 nT) expected from the O'Brien and McPherron equations for the typical range of solar wind electric fields associated with CIRs. This suggests that CIRs alone are unlikely to generate geomagnetic storms that exceed these levels.
Lightweight Battery Charge Regulator Used to Track Solar Array Peak Power
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Soeder, James F.; Button, Robert M.
1999-01-01
A battery charge regulator based on the series-connected boost regulator (SCBR) technology has been developed for high-voltage spacecraft applications. The SCBR regulates the solar array power during insolation to prevent battery overcharge or undercharge conditions. It can also be used to provide regulated battery output voltage to spacecraft loads if necessary. This technology uses industry-standard dc-dc converters and a unique interconnection to provide size, weight, efficiency, fault tolerance, and modularity benefits over existing systems. The high-voltage SCBR shown in the photograph has demonstrated power densities of over 1000 watts per kilogram (W/kg). Using four 150-W dc-dc converter modules, it can process 2500 W of power at 120 Vdc with a minimum input voltage of 90 Vdc. Efficiency of the SCBR was 94 to 98 percent over the entire operational range. Internally, the unit is made of two separate SCBR s, each with its own analog control circuitry, to demonstrate the modularity of the technology. The analog controllers regulate the output current and incorporate the output voltage limit with active current sharing between the two units. They also include voltage and current telemetry, on/off control, and baseplate temperature sensors. For peak power tracking, the SCBR was connected to a LabView-based data acquisition system for telemetry and control. A digital control algorithm for tracking the peak power point of a solar array was developed using the principle of matching the source impedance with the load impedance for maximum energy transfer. The algorithm was successfully demonstrated in a simulated spacecraft electrical system at the Boeing PhantomWorks High Voltage Test Facility in Seattle, Washington. The system consists of a 42-string, high-voltage solar array simulator, a 77-cell, 80-ampere-hour (A-hr) nickel-hydrogen battery, and a constant power-load module. The SCBR and the LabView control algorithm successfully tracked the solar array peak power point through various load transients, including sunlight discharge transients when the total load exceeded the maximum solar array output power.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ball, William T.; Krivova, Natalie A.; Unruh, Yvonne C.; Haigh, Joanna D.; Solanki, Sami K.
2014-11-01
We present a revised and extended total and spectral solar irradiance (SSI) reconstruction, which includes a wavelength-dependent uncertainty estimate, spanning the last three solar cycles using the SATIRE-S model. The SSI reconstruction covers wavelengths between 115 and 160,000 nm and all dates between August 1974 and October 2009. This represents the first full-wavelength SATIRE-S reconstruction to cover the last three solar cycles without data gaps and with an uncertainty estimate. SATIRE-S is compared with the NRLSSI model and SORCE/SOLSTICE ultraviolet (UV) observations. SATIRE-S displays similar cycle behaviour to NRLSSI for wavelengths below 242 nm and almost twice the variability between 242 and 310 nm. During the decline of last solar cycle, between 2003 and 2008, SSI from SORCE/SOLSTICE version 12 and 10 typically displays more than three times the variability of SATIRE-S between 200 and 300 nm. All three datasets are used to model changes in stratospheric ozone within a 2D atmospheric model for a decline from high solar activity to solar minimum. The different flux changes result in different modelled ozone trends. Using NRLSSI leads to a decline in mesospheric ozone, while SATIRE-S and SORCE/SOLSTICE result in an increase. Recent publications have highlighted increases in mesospheric ozone when considering version 10 SORCE/SOLSTICE irradiances. The recalibrated SORCE/SOLSTICE version 12 irradiances result in a much smaller mesospheric ozone response than when using version 10 and now similar in magnitude to SATIRE-S. This shows that current knowledge of variations in spectral irradiance is not sufficient to warrant robust conclusions concerning the impact of solar variability on the atmosphere and climate.
Radiance And Irradiance Of The Solar HeII 304 Emission Line
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McMullin, D. R.; Floyd, L. E.; Auchère, F.
2013-12-01
For over 17 years, EIT and the later EUVI instruments aboard SoHO and STEREO, respectively, have provided a time series of radiant images in the HeII 30.4 nm transition region and three coronal emission lines (FeIX/X, FeXII, and FeXV). While the EIT measurements were gathered from positions approximately on the Earth-Sun axis, EUVI images have been gathered at angles ranging to more than ×90 degrees in solar longitude relative the Earth-Sun axis. Using a Differential Emission Measure (DEM) model, these measurements provide a basis for estimates of the spectral irradiance for the solar spectrum of wavelengths between 15 and 50 nm at any position in the heliosphere. In particular, we generate the He 30.4 spectral irradiance in all directions in the heliosphere and examine its time series in selected directions. Such spectra are utilized for two distinct purposes. First, the photoionization rate of neutral He at each position is calculated. Neutral He is of interest because it traverses the heliopause relatively undisturbed and therefore provides a measure of isotopic parameters beyond the heliosphere. Second, we use these generate a time series of estimates of the solar spectral luminosity in the HeII 30.4 nm emission line extending from the recent past solar cycle 23 minimum into the current weak solar cycle 24 enabling an estimate of its variation over the solar cycle. Because this 30.4~nm spectral luminosity is the sum of such radiation in all directions, its time series is devoid of the 27-day solar rotation periodicity present in indices typically used to represent solar activity.
2012-03-05
subsonic corona below the critical point, resulting in an increased scale height and mass flux, while keeping the kinetic energy of the flow fairly...Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. tubes with small expansion factors the heating occurs in the supersonic corona, where the energy ...goes into the kinetic energy of the solar wind, increasing the flow speed [Leer and Holzer, 1980; Pneuman, 1980]. Using this model and a sim- plified
Building with integral solar-heat storage--Starkville, Mississippi
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
1981-01-01
Column supporting roof also houses rock-storage bin of solar-energy system supplying more than half building space heating load. Conventional heaters supply hot water. Since bin is deeper and narrower than normal, individual pebble size was increased to keep airflow resistance at minimum.
Quiet-Time Suprathermal (˜0.1 - 200 keV) Electrons in the Solar Wind
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Linghua; Yang, Liu; Tao, Jiawei; Zong, Qiugang; Li, Gang; Wimmer-Schweingruber, Robert; He, Jiansen; Tu, Chuanyi; Bale, Stuart
2017-04-01
We present a statistical survey of the energy spectrum of solar wind suprathermal (˜0.1-200 keV) electrons measured by the WIND 3DP instrument at 1 AU during quiet times at the minimum and maximum of solar cycles 23 and 24. The observed energy spectrum of both (beaming) strahl and (isotropic) halo electrons at ˜0.1-1.5 keV generally fits to a Kappa distribution function with an index κ and effective temperature Teff, while the observed energy spectrum of nearly isotropic superhalo electrons at ˜20-200 keV generally fits to a power-law function, J ˜ E-β. We find a strong positive correlation between κ and Teff for both strahl and halo electrons, and a strong positive correlation between the strahl density and halo density. In both solar cycles, κ is larger at solar minimum than at solar maximum for both strahl and halo electrons. For the superhalo population, the spectral index β ranges from ˜1.6 to ˜3.7 and the integrated density nsup ranges from 10-8 cm-3 to 10-5 cm-3, with no clear association with the sunspot number. In solar cycle 23 (24), the distribution of β has a broad maximum between 2.4 and 2.8 (2.0 and 2.4). All the strahl, halo and superhalo populations show no obvious correlation with the solar wind core population. These results reflect the nature of the generation of solar wind suprathermal electrons.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cardoso, Humberto Pontes
1990-01-01
The Satelite de Coleta de Dados (SCD) 02 (Data Collection Satellite) has the following characteristics: 115 kg weight, octagonal prism shape, 1 m diameter, and 0.67 m height. Its specified orbit is nearly circular, 700 km altitude, is inclined 25 deg with respect to the equator line, and has 100 min period. The electric power is supplied by eight solar panels installed on the lateral sides of the satellite. The equipment is located on the central (both faces) and lower (internal face) panels. The satellite is spin stabilized and its attitude control is such that during its lifetime, the solar aspect angle will vary between 80 and 100 deg with respect to its spin axis. Two critical cases were selected for thermal control design purposes: Hot case (maximum solar constant, solar aspect angle equal to 100 deg, minimum eclipse time and maximum internal heat dissipation); and a passive thermal design concept was achieved and the maximum and minimum equipment operating temperatures were obtained through a 109 node finite difference mathematical model.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Gangopadhyay, P.; Ogawa, H. S.; Judge, D. L.
1988-01-01
It has been suggested in the literature that the F74113 solar spectrum for the solar minimum condition needs to be modified to explain the production of photoelectrons in the Earth's atmosphere. We have studied here the effect of another solar minimum spectrum, SC#21REF, on the Jovian upper atmosphere emissions and we have compared the predicted photoelectron excited H2 airglow with the 1973 Pioneer 10 observations, analyzed according to the methodology of Shemansky and Judge (1988). In this model calculation we find that in 1973, the Jovian H2 band emissions can be accounted for almost entirely by photoelectron excitation, if the preflight calibration of the Pioneer 10 ultraviolet photometer is adopted. If the SC#21REF flux shortward of 250 A is multiplied by 2 as proposed by Richards and Torr (1988) then the Pioneer 10 calibration and/or the airglow model used must be modified in order to have a self consistent set of observations.
The Mg II h and k lines. II - Comparison with synthesized profiles and Ca II K. [solar spectra
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Ayres, T. R.; Linsky, J. L.
1976-01-01
Measured high-dispersion center and limb profiles of the solar Mg II h and k resonance lines are compared with synthetic spectra computed with a partial-redistribution formalism and based on several upper-photosphere and lower-chromosphere temperature distributions. Profiles of the analogously formed Ca II K resonance line are also synthesized for the same atmospheric models. The spectrum-synthesis approach is outlined, and the collisional and fixed radiative rates appropriate to the adopted model atoms and solar atmosphere are discussed. It is found that the HSRA and VAL models predict systematically lower intensities in the h, k, and K inner wings than observed and that models with a somewhat higher minimum temperature (about 4450 K) can reproduce the measured inner wings and limb darkening. A 'Ca II' solar model with a minimum temperature of 4450 K is proposed as an alternative to the class of models based on continuum observations.
Fumiaki Funahashi; Jennifer L. Parke
2017-01-01
Soil solarization has been shown to be an effective tool to manage Phytophthora spp. within surface soils, but estimating the minimum time required to complete local eradication under variable weather conditions remains unknown. A mathematical model could help predict the effectiveness of solarization at different sites and soil depths....
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ilić, L.; Kuzmanoski, M.; Kolarž, P.; Nina, A.; Srećković, V.; Mijić, Z.; Bajčetić, J.; Andrić, M.
2018-06-01
Measurements of atmospheric parameters were carried out during the partial solar eclipse (51% coverage of solar disc) observed in Belgrade on 20 March 2015. The measured parameters included height of the planetary boundary layer (PBL), meteorological parameters, solar radiation, surface ozone and air ions, as well as Very Low Frequency (VLF, 3-30 kHz) and Low Frequency (LF, 30-300 kHz) signals to detect low-ionospheric plasma perturbations. The observed decrease of global solar and UV-B radiation was 48%, similar to the solar disc coverage. Meteorological parameters showed similar behavior at two measurement sites, with different elevations and different measurement heights. Air temperature change due to solar eclipse was more pronounced at the lower measurement height, showing a decrease of 2.6 °C, with 15-min time delay relative to the eclipse maximum. However, at the other site temperature did not decrease; its morning increase ceased with the start of the eclipse, and continued after the eclipse maximum. Relative humidity at both sites remained almost constant until the eclipse maximum and then decreased as the temperature increased. The wind speed decreased and reached minimum 35 min after the last contact. The eclipse-induced decrease of PBL height was about 200 m, with minimum reached 20 min after the eclipse maximum. Although dependent on UV radiation, surface ozone concentration did not show the expected decrease, possibly due to less significant influence of photochemical reactions at the measurement site and decline of PBL height. Air-ion concentration decreased during the solar eclipse, with minimum almost coinciding with the eclipse maximum. Additionally, the referential Line-of-Sight (LOS) radio link was set in the area of Belgrade, using the carrier frequency of 3 GHz. Perturbation of the receiving signal level (RSL) was observed on March 20, probably induced by the solar eclipse. Eclipse-related perturbations in ionospheric D-region were detected based on the VLF/LF signal variations, as a consequence of Lyα radiation decrease.
Cosmic Ray Modulation and Radiation Dose of Aircrews During Possible Grand Minimum
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Miyake, S.; Kataoka, R.; Sato, T.; Imada, S.; Miyahara, H.; Shiota, D.; Matsumoto, T.; Ueno, H.
2017-12-01
The Sun is exhibiting low solar activity levels since the descending phase of the last solar cycle, and it is likely to be continued as well as in the case of the past grand solar minima. The cosmic-ray modulation, which is the variation of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) spectrum caused by the heliospheric environmental change, is basically anti-correlated with the solar activity. In the recent weak solar cycle, we thus expect that the flux of GCRs is getting higher than that in the previous solar cycles, leading to the increase in the radiation exposure in the space and atmosphere. In order to quantitatively evaluate the possible solar modulation of GCRs and resultant radiation exposure at flight altitude, we have developed the time-dependent and three-dimensional model of the cosmic-ray modulation. Our model can give the flux of GCRs anywhere in the heliosphere by assuming the variation of the solar wind speed, the strength of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF), and its tilt angle. We solve the gradient-curvature drift motion of GCRs in the HMF, and therefore reproduce the 22-year variation of the cosmic-ray modulation. We also calculate the neutron monitor counting rate and the radiation dose of aircrews at flight altitude, by the air-shower simulation performed by PHITS (Particle and Heavy Ion Transport code System). In our previous study [1], we calculated the radiation dose at a flight altitude during the coming solar cycle by assuming the variation of the solar wind speed and the strength of the HMF expressed by sinusoidal curve, and obtained that an annual radiation dose of aircrews in 5 years around the next solar minimum will be up to 19% higher than that at the last cycle. In this study, we predict the new model of the heliospheric environmental change on the basis of a prediction model for the sunspot number. The quantitative predictions of the cosmic-ray modulation and the radiation dose at a flight altitude during possible Grand Minimum considering the new model for the heliospheric environmental change will be presented at the meeting. [1] S. Miyake, R. Kataoka, and T. Sato, Space Weather, 15, 589-605, 2017.
Space weather effects on the low latitude D-region ionosphere during solar minimum
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kumar, Abhikesh; Kumar, Sushil
2014-12-01
The effects of the solar flares and the geomagnetic storms (disturbance storm time ( Dst) < -50 nT) during December 2006 to 2008, a period during the unprecedented solar minimum of solar cycles 23 and 24, have been examined on sub-ionospheric very low frequency (VLF) signals from NWC (19.8 kHz), NPM (21.4 kHz), VTX (18.2 kHz), and NLK (24.8 kHz) transmitters monitored at Suva (18.2° S, 178.4° E), Fiji. Apart from the higher class solar flares (C to X), a solar flare of class B8.5 also produced enhancements both on the amplitude and phase. The amplitude enhancements in NLK, NPM, and NWC signals as a function of peak solar flare X-ray flux in decibel (dB; relative to 1 μW/m2) shows that the relationship curve is steeper and quite linear between the flare power levels of 0 to 15 dB; below 0 dB, the curve gets less steep and flattens towards -5 dB flare power level, while it also gets less steep above 15 dB and almost flattens above 20 dB. In general, the level of amplitude enhancement for NLK signal is higher than that for NPM and NWC signals for all solar flares. The enhancement in the amplitude and phase of VLF signals by solar flares is due to the increase in the D-region electron density by the solar flare-produced extra ionization. The modeling of VLF perturbations produced by B8.5 and C1.5 classes of solar flares on 29 January 2007 using LWPC (Long Wave Propagation Capability) V2.1 codes show that reflection height ( H') was reduced by 0.6 and 1.2 km and the exponential sharpness factor ( β) was raised by 0.010 and 0.005 km-1, respectively. Out of seven storms with Dst < -50 nT, only the intense storm of 14 to 16 December 2006 with a minimum Dst of -145 nT has shown a clear reduction in the signal strength of NWC and NPM sub-ionospheric signals due to storm-induced reduction in the D-region electron density.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Maute, A. I.; Hagan, M. E.; Richmond, A. D.; Liu, H.; Yudin, V. A.
2014-12-01
The ionosphere-thermosphere system is affected by solar and magnetospheric processes and by meteorological variability. Ionospheric observations of total electron content during the current solar cycle have shown that variability associated with meteorological forcing is important during solar minimum, and can have significant ionospheric effects during solar medium to maximum conditions. Numerical models can be used to study the comparative importance of geomagnetic and meterological forcing.This study focuses on the January 2013 Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) period, which is associated with a very disturbed middle atmosphere as well as with moderately disturbed solar geomagntic conditions. We employ the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM) with a nudging scheme using Whole-Atmosphere-Community-Climate-Model-Extended (WACCM-X)/Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS5) results to simulate the effects of the meteorological and solar wind forcing on the upper atmosphere. The model results are evaluated by comparing with observations e.g., TEC, NmF2, ion drifts. We study the effect of the SSW on the wave spectrum, and the associated changes in the low latitude vertical drifts. These changes are compared to the impact of the moderate geomagnetic forcing on the TI-system during the January 2013 time period by conducting numerical experiments. We will present select highlights from our study and elude to the comparative importance of the forcing from above and below as simulated by the TIME-GCM.
Bashful Ballerina: The asymmetric global solar magnetic field viewed from the heliosphere
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mursula, Kalevi
Long-term observations of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) at 1 AU have depicted interesting systematic hemispheric and longitudinal asymmetries that have far-reaching implications for the understanding of solar magnetism. It has been found that the HMF sector of the northern solar hemisphere dominates the observed HMF sector occurrence in the heliosphere for about three years during the late declining to minimum phase of the solar cycle. This leads to a persistent southward shift or coning of the heliospheric current sheet at these times, which has been described by the concept of the bashful ballerina. Measurements of the solar surface fields have verified that, at these times, the average field intensity is smaller and the area larger in the northern than in the southern solar hemisphere. They have also shown that a persistent global quadrupole moment, oppositely oriented with respect to the dipole moment, appears at these times. Long-term observations of the geomagnetic field can yield information on the HMF sector structure in the pre-satellite era, and show that the ballerina was bashful at least since 1930s. In addition to the hemispheric asymmetries, the Sun is systematically asymmetric in longitude. The HMF has persistent active longitudes whose dominance depicts an oscillation with a period of about 3.2 years. Similar flip-flopping is also seen in the longitudinal distribution of sunspots and stellar observations show that this is a general pattern for sun-like cool stars. We describe these phenomena and discuss their theoretical implications.
Bashful Ballerina: The asymmetric global solar magnetic field viewed from the heliosphere
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mursula, K.
2008-05-01
Long-term observations of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) at 1 AU have depicted interesting systematic hemispheric and longitudinal asymmetries that have far-reaching implications for the understanding of solar magnetism. It has been found that the HMF sector of the northern solar hemisphere dominates the observed HMF sector occurrence in the heliosphere for about three years during the late declining to minimum phase of the solar cycle. This leads to a persistent southward shift or coning of the heliospheric current sheet at these times, which has been described by the concept of the bashful ballerina. Measurements of the solar surface fields have verified that, at these times, the average field intensity is smaller and the area larger in the northern than in the southern solar hemisphere. They have also shown that a persistent global quadrupole moment, oppositely oriented with respect to the dipole moment, appears at these times. Long-term observations of the geomagnetic field can yield information on the HMF sector structure in the pre- satellite era, and show that the ballerina was bashful at least since 1930s. In addition to the hemispheric asymmetries, the Sun is systematically asymmetric in longitude. The HMF has persistent active longitudes whose dominance depicts an oscillation with a period of about 3.2 years. Similar flip-flopping is also seen in the longitudinal distribution of sunspots and stellar observations show that this is a general pattern for sun-like cool stars. We describe these phenomena and discuss their theoretical implications.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bhaskar, A. T.; Vichare, G.
2017-12-01
Here, an attempt is made to develop a prediction model for SYMH and ASYH geomagnetic indices using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). SYMH and ASYH indices represent longitudinal symmetric and asymmetric component of the ring current. The ring current state depends on its past conditions therefore, it is necessary to consider its history for prediction. To account this effect Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with eXogenous inputs (NARX) is implemented. This network considers input history of 30 minutes and output feedback of 120 minutes. Solar wind parameters mainly velocity, density and interplanetary magnetic field are used as inputs. SYMH and ASYH indices during geomagnetic storms of 1998-2013, having minimum SYMH <-85 nT are used as the target for training two independent networks. We present the prediction of SYMH and ASYH indices during 9 geomagnetic storms of solar cycle 24 including the recent largest storm occurred on St. Patrick's day, 2015. The present prediction model reproduces the entire time profile of SYMH and ASYH indices along with small variations of 10-30 minutes to good extent within noise level, indicating significant contribution of interplanetary sources and past state of the magnetosphere. However, during the main phase of major storms, residuals (observed-modeled) are found to be large, suggesting influence of internal factors such as magnetospheric processes.
ON MULTIPLE RECONNECTION X-LINES AND TRIPOLAR PERTURBATIONS OF STRONG GUIDE MAGNETIC FIELDS
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Eriksson, S.; Gosling, J. T.; Lapenta, G.
We report new multi-spacecraft Cluster observations of tripolar guide magnetic field perturbations at a solar wind reconnection exhaust in the presence of a guide field B{sub M} {sub }which is almost four times as strong as the reversing field B{sub L}. The novel tripolar field consists of two narrow regions of depressed B{sub M}, with an observed 7%–14% ΔB{sub M} magnitude relative to the external field, which are found adjacent to a wide region of enhanced B{sub M} within the exhaust. A stronger reversing field is associated with each B{sub M} depression. A kinetic reconnection simulation for realistic solar windmore » conditions and the observed strong guide field reveals that tripolar magnetic fields preferentially form across current sheets in the presence of multiple X-lines as magnetic islands approach one another and merge into fewer and larger islands. The simulated ΔB{sub M}/ΔX{sub N} over the normal width ΔX{sub N} between a B{sub M} minimum and the edge of the external region agree with the normalized values observed by Cluster. We propose that a tripolar guide field perturbation may be used to identify candidate regions containing multiple X-lines and interacting magnetic islands at individual solar wind current sheets with a strong guide field.« less
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
2008-01-01
Everything runs in cycles and what goes up must come down. We hear that a lot these days. The topic of conversation is of course the sun. The solar cycle takes 11 years to go from sunspot minimum to maximum and back to minimum. The cycle is driven by changes in the Sun's magnetic field, and is actually a 22-year cycle: during the second 11 years the magnetic polarity of the solar field is reversed. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory satellite (or SOHO for short), a joint ESA and NASA mission, has been watching the sun since 1995. Rarely is the sun as quiet as it was on September 27, 2008 - as shown in the visible-light image above left, there were absolutely no sunspots to be seen. If the activity stays this low, this might be the most inactive the Sun has been since the dawn of the space age. This still pales in comparison to the 17th century when for a period of 70 years (called the Maunder Minimum) there were no reported sunspots. Some scientists believe the Maunder Minimum responsible for a 'Little Ice Age' and the sound of some violins. The image on the right, taken 3 days later in extreme UV light, shows the formation of two active regions (in the circles) but both faded away before becoming full-fledged spots. So how low will it go? Only time will tell.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Burlaga, L. F.; Ness, N. F.; Richardson, J. D.
We discuss magnetic field and plasma observations of the heliosheath made by Voyager 2 (V2) during 2012, when V2 was observing the effects of increasing solar activity following the solar minimum in 2009. The average magnetic field strength B was 0.14 nT and B reached 0.29 nT on day 249. V2 was in a unipolar region in which the magnetic polarity was directed away from the Sun along the Parker spiral 88% of the time, indicating that V2 was poleward of the heliospheric current sheet throughout most of 2012. The magnetic flux at V2 during 2012 was constant. A mergedmore » interaction region (MIR) was observed, and the flow speed increased as the MIR moved past V2. The MIR caused a decrease in the >70 MeV nuc{sup −1} cosmic-ray intensity. The increments of B can be described by a q-Gaussian distribution with q = 1.2 ± 0.1 for daily averages and q = 1.82 ± 0.03 for hour averages. Eight isolated current sheets (“PBLs”) and four closely spaced pairs of current sheets were observed. The average change of B across the current sheets was a factor of ≈2, and B increased or decreased with equal probability. Magnetic holes and magnetic humps were also observed. The characteristic size of the PBLs was ≈6 R{sub L}, where R{sub L} is the Larmor radius of protons, and the characteristic sizes of the magnetic holes and humps were ≈38 R{sub L} and ≈11 R{sub L}, respectively.« less
Solar electric propulsion for Mars transport vehicles
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hickman, J. M.; Curtis, H. B.; Alexander, S. W.; Gilland, J. H.; Hack, K. J.; Lawrence, C.; Swartz, C. K.
1990-01-01
Solar electric propulsion (SEP) is an alternative to chemical and nuclear powered propulsion systems for both piloted and unpiloted Mars transport vehicles. Photovoltaic solar cell and array technologies were evaluated as components of SEP power systems. Of the systems considered, the SEP power system composed of multijunction solar cells in an ENTECH domed fresnel concentrator array had the least array mass and area. Trip times to Mars optimized for minimum propellant mass were calculated. Additionally, a preliminary vehicle concept was designed.
Solar Power System Design for the Solar Probe+ Mission
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Landis, Geoffrey A.; Schmitz, Paul C.; Kinnison, James; Fraeman, Martin; Roufberg, Lew; Vernon, Steve; Wirzburger, Melissa
2008-01-01
Solar Probe+ is an ambitious mission proposed to the solar corona, designed to make a perihelion approach of 9 solar radii from the surface of the sun. The high temperature, high solar flux environment makes this mission a significant challenge for power system design. This paper summarizes the power system conceptual design for the solar probe mission. Power supplies considered included nuclear, solar thermoelectric generation, solar dynamic generation using Stirling engines, and solar photovoltaic generation. The solar probe mission ranges from a starting distance from the sun of 1 AU, to a minimum distance of about 9.5 solar radii, or 0.044 AU, from the center of the sun. During the mission, the solar intensity ranges from one to about 510 times AM0. This requires power systems that can operate over nearly three orders of magnitude of incident intensity.
Intense Geomagnetic Storms of Solar Cycle 24 and Associated Energetics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rawat, R.; Echer, E.; Gonzalez, W. D.
2013-12-01
Solar cycle 24 commenced in November 2008 following a deep solar minimum. The solar activity picked up gradually and consequently led to increase in geomagnetic activity during the ascending phase of new cycle. From the start of this cycle till July 2013, only 12 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst < -100 nT) have occurred. We investigate the solar wind-interplanetary drivers for these intense geomagnetic storms using satellite data. Total energy Poynting flux (ɛ) representing the fraction of solar wind energy transferred into the magnetosphere during different storms will be calculated. Solar cycle 24 is weaker as compared to previous solar cycle (23). In this work, a comparative study of solar and geomagnetic signatures during the ascending phase of the two cycles will be carried out.
Dependence of Substorm Evolution on Solar Wind Condition: Simulation Study
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kamiyoshikawa, N.; Ebihara, Y.; Tanaka, T.
2017-12-01
A substorm is one of the remarkable disturbances occurring in the magnetosphere. It is known that the substorm occurs frequently when IMF is southward and solar wind speed is high. However, the physical process to determine substorm scale is not well understood. We reproduced substorms by using global MHD simulation, calculated auroral electrojet (ionospheric Hall current) flowing in the ionosphere to investigate the dependence of substorm evolution on solar wind condition. Solar wind speed of 372.4 km/s and IMF Bz of 5.0 nT were imposed to, obtain the quasi-stationary state of the magnetosphere. Then the solar wind parameters were changed as a step function. For the solar wind speed, we assumed 300 km/s, 500 km/s and 700 km/s. For IMF, we assumed -1.0 nT, -3.0 nT, -5.0 nT, -7.0 nT and -9.0 nT. In total, 15 simulation runs were performed. In order to objectively evaluate the substorm, the onset was identified with the method based on the one proposed by Newell et al. (2011). This method uses the SME index that is an extension of the AE index. In this study, the geomagnetic variation induced by the ionospheric Hall current was obtained every 1 degree from the magnetic latitude 40 degrees to 80 degrees and in every 0.5 hours in the magnetic region direction. The upper and the lower envelopes of the geomagnetic variation are regarded as SMU index and SML index, respectively. The larger the solar wind speed, the larger the southward IMF, the more the onset tends to be faster. This tendency is consistent with the onset occurrence probability indicated by Newell et al. (2016). Moreover, the minimum value of the SML index within 30 minutes from the beginning of the onset tends to decrease with the solar wind speed and the magnitude of the southward IMF. A rapid decrease of the SML index can be explained by a rapid increase in the field-aligned currents flowing in and out of the nightside ionosphere. This means that electromagnetic energies flowing into the ionosphere increase abruptly. To the analogy with electric circuit, dynamo is necessary in the magnetosphere to supply electromagnetic energy to the ionosphere as a load. We will discuss the physical process that may determine the intensity of the electrojet as seen by the SML index in terms of energy flow from the solar wind to the ionosphere and the convection by analyzing the global MHD simulation.
Short time variability of solar corona during recent solar cycle minimum
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Siarkowski, Marek; Gryciuk, Magdalena; Gburek, Szymon; Sylwester, Janusz; Sylwester, Barbara; Kepa, Anna; Buczkowska, Agnieszka; Kowalinski, Miroslaw
Sphinx is the X-ray spectrophotometer designed to measure X-ray emission from the Sun in the energy range between 0.8 keV and 15 keV. The instrument is placed onboard Russian KORONAS-PHOTON satellite launched on January 30, 2009. In this paper we present the observations of coronal emission obtained between March-April and August-September 2009, i.e. the times towards the end of the last, very prolonged and deep minimum of solar activity. Prompt analysis of SphinX spectra reveal the variability of the average coronal plasma charac-teristics like the temperature and emission measure. These data are used to compare SphinX and GOES measurements, for selected times. Examples of many sub/microflare events with maxima of the X-ray flux, observed much below the GOES sensitivity threshold level will be presented.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Bouzaki, Mohammed Moustafa, E-mail: bouzaki-physique1@yahoo.fr; Chadel, Meriem; Université de Lorraine, LMOPS, EA 4423, 57070 Metz
This contribution analyzes the energy provided by a solar kit dedicated to autonomous usage and installed in Central Europe (Longitude 6.10°; Latitude 49.21° and Altitude 160 m) by using the simulation software PVSYST. We focused the analysis on the effect of temperature and solar irradiation on the I-V characteristic of a commercial PV panel. We also consider in this study the influence of charging and discharging the battery on the generator efficiency. Meteorological data are integrated into the simulation software. As expected, the solar kit provides an energy varying all along the year with a minimum in December. In themore » proposed approach, we consider this minimum as the lowest acceptable energy level to satisfy the use. Thus for the other months, a lost in the available renewable energy exists if no storage system is associated.« less
Peculiarities of cosmic ray modulation in the solar minimum 23/24
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Alania, M. V.; Modzelewska, R.; Wawrzynczak, A.
2014-06-01
We study changes of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity for the ending period of the solar cycle 23 and the beginning of the solar cycle 24 using neutron monitors experimental data. We show that an increase of the GCR intensity in 2009 is generally related with decrease of the solar wind velocity U, the strength B of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), and the drift in negative (A < 0) polarity epoch. We present that temporal changes of rigidity dependence of the GCR intensity variation, before reaching maximum level in 2009 and after it, do not noticeably differ from each other. The rigidity spectrum of the GCR intensity variations calculated based on neutron monitors data (for rigidities > 10 GV) is hard in the minimum and near-minimum epoch. We do not recognize any nonordinary changes in the physical mechanism of modulation of the GCR intensity in the rigidity range of GCR particles to which neutron monitors respond. We compose 2-D nonstationary model of transport equation to describe variations of the GCR intensity for 1996-2012 including the A > 0 (1996-2001) and the A < 0 (2002-2012) periods; diffusion coefficient of cosmic rays for rigidity 10-15 GV is increased by 30% in 2009 (A < 0) comparing with 1996 (A > 0). We believe that the proposed model is relatively realistic, and obtained results are satisfactorily compatible with neutron monitors data.
The Impact of Different Absolute Solar Irradiance Values on Current Climate Model Simulations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rind, David H.; Lean, Judith L.; Jonas, Jeffrey
2014-01-01
Simulations of the preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates are made with the GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model 3 using two different estimates of the absolute solar irradiance value: a higher value measured by solar radiometers in the 1990s and a lower value measured recently by the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment. Each of the model simulations is adjusted to achieve global energy balance; without this adjustment the difference in irradiance produces a global temperature change of 0.48C, comparable to the cooling estimated for the Maunder Minimum. The results indicate that by altering cloud cover the model properly compensates for the different absolute solar irradiance values on a global level when simulating both preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates. On a regional level, the preindustrial climate simulations and the patterns of change with doubled CO2 concentrations are again remarkably similar, but there are some differences. Using a higher absolute solar irradiance value and the requisite cloud cover affects the model's depictions of high-latitude surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and stratospheric ozone, as well as tropical precipitation. In the climate change experiments it leads to an underestimation of North Atlantic warming, reduced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific, and smaller total ozone growth at high northern latitudes. Although significant, these differences are typically modest compared with the magnitude of the regional changes expected for doubled greenhouse gas concentrations. Nevertheless, the model simulations demonstrate that achieving the highest possible fidelity when simulating regional climate change requires that climate models use as input the most accurate (lower) solar irradiance value.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ozheredov, V. A.; Breus, T. K.; Obridko, V. N.
2012-12-01
As follows from the statement of the Third Official Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel created by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the International Space Environment Service (ISES) based on the results of an analysis of many solar cycle 24 predictions, there has been no consensus on the amplitude and time of the maximum. There are two different scenarios: 90 units and August 2012 or 140 units and October 2011. The aim of our study is to revise the solar cycle 24 predictions by a comparative analysis of data obtained by three different methods: the singular spectral method, the nonlinear neural-based method, and the precursor method. As a precursor for solar cycle 24, we used the dynamics of the solar magnetic fields forming solar spots with Wolf numbers Rz. According to the prediction on the basis of the neural-based approach, it was established that the maximum of solar cycle 24 is expected to be 70. The precursor method predicted 50 units for the amplitude and April of 2012 for the time of the maximum. In view of the fact that the data used in the precursor method were averaged over 4.4 years, the amplitude of the maximum can be 20-30% larger (i.e., around 60-70 units), which is close to the values predicted by the neural-based method. The protracted minimum of solar cycle 23 and predicted low values of the maximum of solar cycle 24 are reminiscent of the historical Dalton minimum.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tanaka, T.; Washimi, H.
1999-06-01
The global structure of the solar wind/very local interstellar medium interaction is studied from a fully three-dimensional time-dependent magnetohydrodynamic model, in which the solar wind speed increases from 400 to 800 km/s in going from the ecliptic to pole and the heliolatitude of the low-high-speed boundary changes from 30° to 80° in going from the solar minimum to solar maximum. In addition, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) changes its polarity at the solar maximum. As a whole, the shapes of the terminal shock (TS) and heliopause (HP) are elongated along the solar polar axis owing to a high solar wind ram pressure over the poles. In the ecliptic plane, the heliospheric structure changes little throughout a solar cycle. The TS in this plane shows a characteristic bullet-shaped structure. In the polar plane, on the other hand, the shape of the TS exhibits many specific structures according to the stage of the solar cycle. These structures include the polygonal configuration of the polar TS seen around the solar minimum, the mesa- and terrace-shaped TSs in the high- and low-speed solar wind regions seen around the ascending phase, and the chimney-shaped TS in the high-speed solar wind region seen around the solar maximum. These structures are formed from different combinations of right-angle shock, oblique shock, and steep oblique shock so as to transport the heliosheath plasma most efficiently toward the heliotail (HT). In the HT, the hot and weakly-magnetized plasma from the high-heliolatitude TS invades as far as the ecliptic plane. A weakly time-dependent recirculation flow in the HT is a manifestation of invading flow. Distributions of magnetic field in the HT, which are a pile-up of the compressed MF over several solar cycles, are modified by the flow from high-heliolatitude.
Solar system plasma Turbulence: Observations, inteRmittency and Multifractals
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Echim, Marius M.
2016-04-01
The FP7 project STORM is funded by the European Commission to "add value to existing data bases through a more comprehensive interpretation". STORM targets plasma and magnetic field databases collected in the solar wind (Ulysses and also some planetary missions), planetary magnetospheres (Venus Express, Cluster, a few orbits from Cassini), cometary magnetosheaths (e.g. Haley from Giotto observations). The project applies the same package of analysis methods on geomagnetic field observations from ground and on derived indices (e.g. AE, AL, AU, SYM-H). The analysis strategy adopted in STORM is built on the principle of increasing complexity, from lower (like, e.g., the Power Spectral Density - PSD) to higher order analyses (the Probability Distribution Functions - PDFs, Structure Functions - SFs, Fractals and Multifractals - MFs). Therefore STORM targets not only the spectral behavior of turbulent fluctuations but also their topology and scale behavior inferred from advanced mathematical algorithms and geometrical-like analogs. STORM started in January 2013 and ended in December 2015. We will report on a selection of scientific and technical achievements and will highlight: (1) the radial evolution of solar wind turbulence and intermittency based on Ulysses data with some contributions from Venus Express and Cluster; (2) comparative study of fast and slow wind turbulence and intermittency at solar minimum; (3) comparative study of the planetary response (Venus and Earth magnetosheaths) to turbulent solar wind; (4) the critical behavior of geomagnetic fluctuations and indices; (5) an integrated library for non-linear analysis of time series that includes all the approaches adopted in STORM to investigate solar system plasma turbulence. STORM delivers an unprecedented volume of analysed data for turbulence. The project made indeed a systematic survey, orbit by orbit, of data available from ESA repositories and Principal Investigators and provides results ordered as a function of the targeted system (solar wind/magnetospheres/geomagnetic indices), solar cycle phase (minimum versus maximum), type of result (PSDs, PDFs, Multifractals). The results catalogues, available online from http://www.storm-fp7.eu, include 4094 PSD spectra, 9566 PDFs and 15633 multifractal spectra (from partition function and respectively Rank Ordered (ROMA) formalisms). These results are obtained at solar maximum (2001-2002, both in the solar wind and the terrestrial magnetosheath) and solar minimum (1997-1998 in the solar wind, 2007-2008 in the solar wind, Venus and Earth magnetosheath and selected regions of the magnetosphere). Research supported by the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no 313038/STORM.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jana, Sukhendu; Das, Sayan; De, Debasish; Mondal, Anup; Gangopadhyay, Utpal
2018-02-01
Presently, silicon nitride (SiN x ) is widely used as antireflection coating (ARC) on p-type silicon solar cell. But, two highly toxic gasses ammonia and silane are used. In the present study, the ARC and passivation properties of diamond-like nanocomposite (DLN) thin film on silicon solar cell have been investigated. The DLN thin film has been deposited by rf-PACVD process using liquid precursor HMDSO in argon plasma. The film has been characterized by FESEM, HRTEM, FTIR, and Raman spectroscopy. The optical properties have been estimated by UV-vis-NIR spectroscopy. The minimum reflection has been achieved to 0.75% at 630 nm. Both the short circuit current density and open circuit voltage has been increased significantly from 28.6 mA cm-2 to 35.5 mA cm-2 and 0.551 V to 0.613 V respectively. The field effect passivation has been confirmed by dark IV characterization of c-Si /DLN heterojunction structure. All these lead to enhancement of efficiency by almost 4% absolute, which is comparable to SiN x . The ammonia and silane free deposited DLN thin film has a great potential to use as ARC for silicon based solar cell.
Lunar electrical conductivity, permeability and temperature from Apollo magnetometer experiments
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Dyal, P.; Parkin, C. W.; Daily, W. D.
1977-01-01
Magnetometers were deployed at four Apollo sites on the moon to measure remanent and induced lunar magnetic fields. Measurements from this network of instruments were used to calculate the electrical conductivity, temperature, magnetic permeability, and iron abundance of the lunar interior. The measured lunar remanent fields range from 3 gammas minimum at the Apollo 15 site to 327 gammas maximum at the Apollo 16 site. Simultaneous magnetic field and solar plasma pressure measurements show that the remanent fields at the Apollo 12 and 16 sites interact with, and are compressed by, the solar wind. Remanent fields at Apollo 12 and Apollo 16 are increased 16 gammas and 32 gammas, respectively, by a solar plasma bulk pressure increase of 1.5 X 10 to the -7th power dynes/sq cm. Global lunar fields due to eddy currents, induced in the lunar interior by magnetic transients, were analyzed to calculate an electrical conductivity profile for the moon. From nightside magnetometer data in the solar wind it was found that deeper than 170 km into the moon the conductivity rises from .0003 mhos/m to .10 mhos/m at 100 km depth. Recent analysis of data obtained in the geomagnetic tail, in regions free of complicating plasma effects, yields results consistent with nightside values.
Understanding Sun-Climate Connection by Analysis of Historical Sunspot, Auroral and Weather Records
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pang, K. D.; Yau, K. K.
2005-12-01
Fifty years of galactic cosmic ray data show changes with the solar cycle. Deflection of the highly energetic particles from exploding supernovae by the solar wind and associated magnetic field also modulates cosmogenic radioisotope production high in the atmosphere. The same trends are seen in carbon-14 and beryllium-10 abundances from long-lived trees and polar ice cores, respectively. Total solar irradiances measured by satellite radiometers show a 0.1% variance over the last two solar cycles, with only a small effect on global temperatures. A longer view is obviously needed. During the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) sunspots were rarely seen. Total solar irradiances, reconstructed from historical sunspot data, were 0.24% lower, correlating nicely with an estimated 0.5-degree drop in Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures during the Little Ice Age [Lean and Rind, J. Clim. 11, 3069, 1998]. A longer time series has been reconstructed from even earlier records. From the frequencies of sunspot and auroral sightings in East Asian and European chronicles, C-14 and Be-10 abundances we have reconstructed the recent history of a variable Sun. In the past 1800 years the Sun has gone through nine cycles of brightness change. Although these long-term changes were <1% they have clearly affected the climate [Pang and Yau, Eos 83, No. 43, 481, 2002]. We have also analyzed Chinese historical weather records for comparison. Reports of unseasonable cold are classified by their degree of severity: (1) Late (April-June) or early (July-Sept.) killing frosts; (2) Bitter cold/heavy snowfall; and (3) Heavy sustained snowfall, bitter cold with frozen wells, lakes, rivers and icebound seas. The latter cases were often widespread and multi-year. All categories occurred most often during Maunder Minimum. The Category 3 episodes were in 1652-54, 1656, 1664, 1670-72, 1676-77, 1683, 1688-91, 1716 and 1718-19. The coldest time 1670-1697 coincides with lows in aurora sightings and numerical model simulated temperatures, and highs in radioisotope production. There was only one Category 3 episode between the Maunder and Dalton Minima-in 1761 (due to a big eruption); and two in the Dalton Minimum (1795-1825)-in 1796 and 1814-17. The 1815 Tambora eruption, with the reduced solar luminosity, seem to have been responsible for the "year without summer" and long-cold spell. The Sun has brightened since the Dalton Minimum, but the climate of China stayed cold through the 19th century. However there were only two Category 3 episodes: in 1841 and 1877. The onset of global warming reduced that to just once in the 20th century: 1955. The climate of China seems to have been warm during the Late 14th-Century Maximum (1350-1410). We have found only one Category 1 episode: in 1393. It then turned cold during the Sporer Minimum (1410-1590). Category 3 episodes occurred in 1453-54, 1493, 1513, 1569, and 1577-78. The early 1453 great Kuwae eruption apparently deepened and prolonged the first [Pang, Eos 74, No. 43, 106, 1993; Simarski, Aramco World 47, No.6, 8, 1996]. We conclude that the climate of China in the past 650 years generally follows world trend. The major forcing seems to have been changing solar luminosity, as all but four severe weather episodes coincide with solar minimum. The exact mechanism remains unknown, but could have been increased cloudiness.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
1986-01-01
The main objective was to design and build a minimum of three photovoltaic test panels for plasma interaction experiments. These experiments are intended to provide data on the interactions between high-voltage solar arrays and the space plasma environment. Data gathered will significantly contribute to the development of design criteria for the space station solar arrays. Electrical isolation between the solar cell strings and the module mounting plate is required for high-voltage bias.
Toward the Probabilistic Forecasting of High-latitude GPS Phase Scintillation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Prikryl, P.; Jayachandran, P.T.; Mushini, S. C.; Richardson, I. G.
2012-01-01
The phase scintillation index was obtained from L1 GPS data collected with the Canadian High Arctic Ionospheric Network (CHAIN) during years of extended solar minimum 2008-2010. Phase scintillation occurs predominantly on the dayside in the cusp and in the nightside auroral oval. We set forth a probabilistic forecast method of phase scintillation in the cusp based on the arrival time of either solar wind corotating interaction regions (CIRs) or interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). CIRs on the leading edge of high-speed streams (HSS) from coronal holes are known to cause recurrent geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances that can be forecast one or several solar rotations in advance. Superposed epoch analysis of phase scintillation occurrence showed a sharp increase in scintillation occurrence just after the arrival of high-speed solar wind and a peak associated with weak to moderate CMEs during the solar minimum. Cumulative probability distribution functions for the phase scintillation occurrence in the cusp are obtained from statistical data for days before and after CIR and ICME arrivals. The probability curves are also specified for low and high (below and above median) values of various solar wind plasma parameters. The initial results are used to demonstrate a forecasting technique on two example periods of CIRs and ICMEs.
An analysis of interplanetary space radiation exposure for various solar cycles
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Badhwar, G. D.; Cucinotta, F. A.; O'Neill, P. M.; Wilson, J. W. (Principal Investigator)
1994-01-01
The radiation dose received by crew members in interplanetary space is influenced by the stage of the solar cycle. Using the recently developed models of the galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) environment and the energy-dependent radiation transport code, we have calculated the dose at 0 and 5 cm water depth; using a computerized anatomical man (CAM) model, we have calculated the skin, eye and blood-forming organ (BFO) doses as a function of aluminum shielding for various solar minima and maxima between 1954 and 1989. These results show that the equivalent dose is within about 15% of the mean for the various solar minima (maxima). The maximum variation between solar minimum and maximum equivalent dose is about a factor of three. We have extended these calculations for the 1976-1977 solar minimum to five practical shielding geometries: Apollo Command Module, the least and most heavily shielded locations in the U.S. space shuttle mid-deck, center of the proposed Space Station Freedom cluster and sleeping compartment of the Skylab. These calculations, using the quality factor of ICRP 60, show that the average CAM BFO equivalent dose is 0.46 Sv/year. Based on an approach that takes fragmentation into account, we estimate a calculation uncertainty of 15% if the uncertainty in the quality factor is neglected.
Will Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Be Weaker than Cycle 24?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Javaraiah, J.
2017-11-01
The study of variations in solar activity is important for understanding the underlying mechanism of solar activity and for predicting the level of activity in view of the activity impact on space weather and global climate. Here we have used the amplitudes (the peak values of the 13-month smoothed international sunspot number) of Solar Cycles 1 - 24 to predict the relative amplitudes of the solar cycles during the rising phase of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle. We fitted a cosine function to the amplitudes and times of the solar cycles after subtracting a linear fit of the amplitudes. The best cosine fit shows overall properties (periods, maxima, minima, etc.) of Gleissberg cycles, but with large uncertainties. We obtain a pattern of the rising phase of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle, but there is considerable ambiguity. Using the epochs of violations of the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule (G-O rule) and the `tentative inverse G-O rule' of solar cycles during the period 1610 - 2015, and also using the epochs where the orbital angular momentum of the Sun is steeply decreased during the period 1600 - 2099, we infer that Solar Cycle 25 will be weaker than Cycle 24. Cycles 25 and 26 will have almost same strength, and their epochs are at the minimum between the current and upcoming Gleissberg cycles. In addition, Cycle 27 is expected to be stronger than Cycle 26 and weaker than Cycle 28, and Cycle 29 is expected to be stronger than both Cycles 28 and 30. The maximum of Cycle 29 is expected to represent the next Gleissberg maximum. Our analysis also suggests a much lower value (30 - 40) for the maximum amplitude of the upcoming Cycle 25.
Jupiter's Mid-Infrared Aurora: Solar Connection and Minor Constituents
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kostiuk, Theodore; Livengood, T.A.; Fast, K.E.; Hewagama, T.; Schmilling, F.; Sonnabend, G.; Delgado, J.
2009-01-01
High spectral resolution in the 12 pin region of the polar regions of Jupiter reveal unique information on auroral phenomena and upper stratospheric composition. Polar aurorae in Jupiter's atmosphere radiate; throughout the electromagnetic spectrum from X-ray through mid-infrared (mid-IR, 5 - 20 micron wavelength). Voyager IRIS data and ground-based. spectroscopic measurements of Jupiter's northern mid-IR aurora acquired since 1982, reveal a correlation between auroral brightness and solar activity that has not been observed in Jovian aurora at other wavelengths. Over nearly three solar cycles, Jupiter auroral ethane, emission brightness and solar 10.7-cm radar flux and sunspot number are positively correlated with high confidence. Ethane line emission intensity varies over tenfold between low and high scalar activity periods. Detailed measurements have been made using the GSFC HIPWAC spectrometer at the NASA IRTF since the last solar maximum, following the mid-IR emission through the declining phase toward solar minimum. An even more convincing correlation with solar activity is evident in these data. The spectra measured contain features that cannot be attributed to ethane and are most likely spectra of minor constituents whose molecular bands overlap the v9 band of ethane. Possible candidates are allene, propane, and other higher order hydrocarbons. These features appear to be enhanced in the active polar regions. Laboratory measurements at comparable spectral resolution of spectra of candidate molecules will be used to identify the constituents. Current analyses of these results will be described, including planned measurements on polar ethane line emission scheduled through the rise of the next solar maximum beginning in 2009, with a steep gradient to a maximum in 2012. This work is relevant to the Juno mission and to the development of the NASA/ESA Europa Jupiter System Mission.
Amplitudes of solar modulation of low energy cosmic rays
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Von Rosenvinge, T. T.; Paizis, C.
1982-01-01
There have been differences of opinion regarding the origin and behavior of the solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays. It has been shown that the return to solar maximum intensity levels beginning in early 1978 was dominated by Forbush decreases. These Forbush decreases were caused by radially moving interplanetary shocks resulting from large solar flares. The present investigation is concerned with solar modulation effects which were observed during the previous solar minimum. The effects were associated with high-speed streams in the solar wind. These streams caused the formation of corotating interaction regions with both forward and reverse shocks. The modulation effects seen near earth are intimately connected with these shocks.
Some Options for a Minimum Solar Probe Mission
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Randolph, J. E.; Tsurutani, B. T.; Turner, P. R.; Miyake, R. M.; Ayon, J. A.
1996-01-01
Smaller and lower cost options of NASA's Solar Probe mission have recently been studied. The difference between these options and the results of earlier studies is dramatic. The motivation for low cost has encouraged the JPL design team to accomodate a smaller scientific payload using innovative multi-functional subsystems.
Space Radiation Risks for Astronauts on Multiple International Space Station Missions
Cucinotta, Francis A.
2014-01-01
Mortality and morbidity risks from space radiation exposure are an important concern for astronauts participating in International Space Station (ISS) missions. NASA’s radiation limits set a 3% cancer fatality probability as the upper bound of acceptable risk and considers uncertainties in risk predictions using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) of the assessment. In addition to risk limitation, an important question arises as to the likelihood of a causal association between a crew-members’ radiation exposure in the past and a diagnosis of cancer. For the first time, we report on predictions of age and sex specific cancer risks, expected years of life-loss for specific diseases, and probability of causation (PC) at different post-mission times for participants in 1-year or multiple ISS missions. Risk projections with uncertainty estimates are within NASA acceptable radiation standards for mission lengths of 1-year or less for likely crew demographics. However, for solar minimum conditions upper 95% CL exceed 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) by 18 months or 24 months for females and males, respectively. Median PC and upper 95%-confidence intervals are found to exceed 50% for several cancers for participation in two or more ISS missions of 18 months or longer total duration near solar minimum, or for longer ISS missions at other phases of the solar cycle. However, current risk models only consider estimates of quantitative differences between high and low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. We also make predictions of risk and uncertainties that would result from an increase in tumor lethality for highly ionizing radiation reported in animal studies, and the additional risks from circulatory diseases. These additional concerns could further reduce the maximum duration of ISS missions within acceptable risk levels, and will require new knowledge to properly evaluate. PMID:24759903
Space radiation risks for astronauts on multiple International Space Station missions.
Cucinotta, Francis A
2014-01-01
Mortality and morbidity risks from space radiation exposure are an important concern for astronauts participating in International Space Station (ISS) missions. NASA's radiation limits set a 3% cancer fatality probability as the upper bound of acceptable risk and considers uncertainties in risk predictions using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) of the assessment. In addition to risk limitation, an important question arises as to the likelihood of a causal association between a crew-members' radiation exposure in the past and a diagnosis of cancer. For the first time, we report on predictions of age and sex specific cancer risks, expected years of life-loss for specific diseases, and probability of causation (PC) at different post-mission times for participants in 1-year or multiple ISS missions. Risk projections with uncertainty estimates are within NASA acceptable radiation standards for mission lengths of 1-year or less for likely crew demographics. However, for solar minimum conditions upper 95% CL exceed 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) by 18 months or 24 months for females and males, respectively. Median PC and upper 95%-confidence intervals are found to exceed 50% for several cancers for participation in two or more ISS missions of 18 months or longer total duration near solar minimum, or for longer ISS missions at other phases of the solar cycle. However, current risk models only consider estimates of quantitative differences between high and low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. We also make predictions of risk and uncertainties that would result from an increase in tumor lethality for highly ionizing radiation reported in animal studies, and the additional risks from circulatory diseases. These additional concerns could further reduce the maximum duration of ISS missions within acceptable risk levels, and will require new knowledge to properly evaluate.
Energetic O+ and H+ Ions in the Plasma Sheet: Implications for the Transport of Ionospheric Ions
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Ohtani, S.; Nose, M.; Christon, S. P.; Lui, A. T.
2011-01-01
The present study statistically examines the characteristics of energetic ions in the plasma sheet using the Geotail/Energetic Particle and Ion Composition data. An emphasis is placed on the O+ ions, and the characteristics of the H+ ions are used as references. The following is a summary of the results. (1) The average O+ energy is lower during solar maximum and higher during solar minimum. A similar tendency is also found for the average H+ energy, but only for geomagnetically active times; (2) The O+ -to -H+ ratios of number and energy densities are several times higher during solar maximum than during solar minimum; (3) The average H+ and O+ energies and the O+ -to -H+ ratios of number and energy densities all increase with geomagnetic activity. The differences among different solar phases not only persist but also increase with increasing geomagnetic activity; (4) Whereas the average H+ energy increases toward Earth, the average O+ energy decreases toward Earth. The average energy increases toward dusk for both the H+ and O+ ions; (5) The O+ -to -H+ ratios of number and energy densities increase toward Earth during all solar phases, but most clearly during solar maximum. These results suggest that the solar illumination enhances the ionospheric outflow more effectively with increasing geomagnetic activity and that a significant portion of the O+ ions is transported directly from the ionosphere to the near ]Earth region rather than through the distant tail.
Ionospheric Change and Solar EUV Irradiance
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sojka, J. J.; David, M.; Jensen, J. B.; Schunk, R. W.
2011-12-01
The ionosphere has been quantitatively monitored for the past six solar cycles. The past few years of observations are showing trends that differ from the prior cycles! Our good statistical relationships between the solar radio flux index at 10.7 cm, the solar EUV Irradiance, and the ionospheric F-layer peak density are showing indications of divergence! Present day discussion of the Sun-Earth entering a Dalton Minimum would suggest change is occurring in the Sun, as the driver, followed by the Earth, as the receptor. The dayside ionosphere is driven by the solar EUV Irradiance. But different components of this spectrum affect the ionospheric layers differently. For a first time the continuous high cadence EUV spectra from the SDO EVE instrument enable ionospheric scientists the opportunity to evaluate solar EUV variability as a driver of ionospheric variability. A definitive understanding of which spectral components are responsible for the E- and F-layers of the ionosphere will enable assessments of how over 50 years of ionospheric observations, the solar EUV Irradiance has changed. If indeed the evidence suggesting the Sun-Earth system is entering a Dalton Minimum periods is correct, then the comprehensive EVE solar EUV Irradiance data base combined with the ongoing ionospheric data bases will provide a most fortuitous fiduciary reference baseline for Sun-Earth dependencies. Using the EVE EUV Irradiances, a physics based ionospheric model (TDIM), and 50 plus years of ionospheric observation from Wallops Island (Virginia) the above Sun-Earth ionospheric relationship will be reported on.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chhiber, Rohit; Usmanov, Arcadi V.; DeForest, Craig E.; Matthaeus, William H.; Parashar, Tulasi N.; Goldstein, Melvyn L.
2018-04-01
Recent analysis of Solar-Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) imaging observations have described the early stages of the development of turbulence in the young solar wind in solar minimum conditions. Here we extend this analysis to a global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the corona and solar wind based on inner boundary conditions, either dipole or magnetogram type, that emulate solar minimum. The simulations have been calibrated using Ulysses and 1 au observations, and allow, within a well-understood context, a precise determination of the location of the Alfvén critical surfaces and the first plasma beta equals unity surfaces. The compatibility of the the STEREO observations and the simulations is revealed by direct comparisons. Computation of the radial evolution of second-order magnetic field structure functions in the simulations indicates a shift toward more isotropic conditions at scales of a few Gm, as seen in the STEREO observations in the range 40–60 R ⊙. We affirm that the isotropization occurs in the vicinity of the first beta unity surface. The interpretation based on early stages of in situ solar wind turbulence evolution is further elaborated, emphasizing the relationship of the observed length scales to the much smaller scales that eventually become the familiar turbulence inertial range cascade. We argue that the observed dynamics is the very early manifestation of large-scale in situ nonlinear couplings that drive turbulence and heating in the solar wind.
Impact of climate change on runoff in Lake Urmia basin, Iran
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sanikhani, Hadi; Kisi, Ozgur; Amirataee, Babak
2018-04-01
Investigation of the impact of climate change on water resources is very necessary in dry and arid regions. In the first part of this paper, the climate model Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was used for downscaling climate data including rainfall, solar radiation, and minimum and maximum temperatures. Two different case studies including Aji-Chay and Mahabad-Chay River basins as sub-basins of Lake Urmia in the northwest part of Iran were considered. The results indicated that the LARS-WG successfully downscaled the climatic variables. By application of different emission scenarios (i.e., A1B, A2, and B1), an increasing trend in rainfall and a decreasing trend in temperature were predicted for both the basins over future time periods. In the second part of this paper, gene expression programming (GEP) was applied for simulating runoff of the basins in the future time periods including 2020, 2055, and 2090. The input combination including rainfall, solar radiation, and minimum and maximum temperatures in current and prior time was selected as the best input combination with highest predictive power for runoff prediction. The results showed that the peak discharge will decrease by 50 and 55.9% in 2090 comparing with the baseline period for the Aji-Chay and Mahabad-Chay basins, respectively. The results indicated that the sustainable adaptation strategies are necessary for these basins for protection of water resources in future.
2017-03-22
The sun has been virtually spotless, as in no sunspots, over the past 11 days, a spotless stretch that we have not seen since the last solar minimum many years ago. The videos shows the past four days (Mar. 14-17, 2017) with a combination of an extreme ultraviolet image blended with just the filtered sun. If we just showed the filtered sun with no spots for reference points, any viewer would have a hard time telling that the sun was even rotating. The sun is trending again towards the solar minimum period of its 11 year cycle, which is predicted to be around 2020. Movies are available at http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA21569
Experimental evaluation of a unique radiometer for use in solar simulation testing
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Richmond, R. G.
1978-01-01
The vane radiometer is designed to operate over the range 0-1 solar constant and is capable of withstanding temperatures over the range -200 to +175 C. Two of these radiometers, for use in the Johnson Space Center's largest space simulator, have been evaluated for: (1) thermal sensitivity with no solar input, (2) linearity as a function of solar simulation input, and (3) output drift as a function of time. The minimum sensitivity was measured to be approximately 25.5 mV/solar constant. An unusual effect in the pressure range 760 to 1.0 torr is discussed.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chan, Agnes; Conley, Kristin; Javorski, Christian T.; Cheung, Kwok-Hung; Crivelli, Paul M.; Torrey, Nancy P.; Traver, Michael L.
1992-01-01
Increase in energy demands coupled with rapid depletion of natural energy resources have deemed solar energy as the most logical alternative source of power. The major objective of this project was to build a solar powered remotely controlled aircraft to demonstrate the feasibility of solar energy as an effective, alternate source of power. The final design was optimized for minimum weight and maximum strength of the structure. These design constraints necessitated a carbon fiber composite structure. Surya is a lightweight, durable aircraft capable of achieving level flight powered entirely by solar cells.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Not Available
1994-02-01
The bibliography contains citations concerning the design and utilization of solar food driers. Solar collectors used are described in depth. Drying of fish, peanuts, fruits, potatoes, onions, garlic, ginseng, grains, coffee, and tobacco using this method is discussed. The use of focused solar energy and the addition of silica gel to drying foods are evaluated. Use of solar driers in the field, as a home preservation method, in underdeveloped countries, and as part of industrial food processing is considered. (Contains a minimum of 214 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
NONE
1995-02-01
The bibliography contains citations concerning the design and utilization of solar food driers. Solar collectors used are described in depth. Drying of fish, peanuts, fruits, potatoes, onions, garlic, ginseng, grains, coffee, and tobacco using this method is discussed. The use of focused solar energy and the addition of silica gel to drying foods are evaluated. Use of solar driers in the field, as a home preservation method, in underdeveloped countries, and as part of industrial food processing is considered. (Contains a minimum of 217 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)
Interpretation of 3He variations in the solar wind
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Coplan, M. A.; Ogilvie, K. W.; Geiss, J.; Bochsler, P.
1983-01-01
The ion composition instrument (ICI) on ISEE-3 observed the isotopes of helium of mass 3 and 4 in the solar wind almost continuously between August 1978 and July 1982. This period included the increase towards the maximum of solar activity cycle 21, the maximum period, and the beginning of the descent towards solar minimum. Observations were made when the solar wind speed was between 300 and 620 km/s. For part of the period evidence for regular interplanetary magnetic sector structure was clear and a number of 3He flares occurred during this time.
Interpretation of He-3 abundance variations in the solar wind
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Coplan, M. A.; Ogilvie, K. W.; Bochsler, P.; Geiss, J.
1984-01-01
The ion composition instrument (ICI) on ISEE-3 observed the isotopes of helium of mass 3 and 4 in the solar wind almost continuously between August 1978 and July 1982. This period included the increase towards the maximum of solar activity cycle 21, the maximum period, and the beginning of the descent towards solar minimum. Observations were made when the solar wind speed was between 300 and 620 km/s. For part of the period evidence for regular interplanetary magnetic sector structure was clear and a number of He-3 flares occurred during this time.
Role of Concentrating Solar Power in Integrating Solar and Wind Energy: Preprint
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Denholm, P.; Mehos, M.
2015-06-03
As wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) increase in penetration it is increasingly important to examine enabling technologies that can help integrate these resources at large scale. Concentrating solar power (CSP) when deployed with thermal energy storage (TES) can provide multiple services that can help integrate variable generation (VG) resources such as wind and PV. CSP with TES can provide firm, highly flexible capacity, reducing minimum generation constraints which limit penetration and results in curtailment. By acting as an enabling technology, CSP can complement PV and wind, substantially increasing their penetration in locations with adequate solar resource.
Long-Range Solar Activity Predictions: A Reprieve from Cycle #24's Activity
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Richon, K.; Schatten, K.
2003-01-01
We discuss the field of long-range solar activity predictions and provide an outlook into future solar activity. Orbital predictions for satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) depend strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in this regard, as the solar ultra-violet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiations inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Rather than concentrate on statistical, or numerical methods, we utilize a class of techniques (precursor methods) which is founded in physical theory. The geomagnetic precursor method was originally developed by the Russian geophysicist, Ohl, using geomagnetic observations to predict future solar activity. It was later extended to solar observations, and placed within the context of physical theory, namely the workings of the Sun s Babcock dynamo. We later expanded the prediction methods with a SOlar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) index. The SODA index is a measure of the buried solar magnetic flux, using toroidal and poloidal field components. It allows one to predict future solar activity during any phase of the solar cycle, whereas previously, one was restricted to making predictions only at solar minimum. We are encouraged that solar cycle #23's behavior fell closely along our predicted curve, peaking near 192, comparable to the Schatten, Myers and Sofia (1996) forecast of 182+/-30. Cycle #23 extends from 1996 through approximately 2006 or 2007, with cycle #24 starting thereafter. We discuss the current forecast of solar cycle #24, (2006-2016), with a predicted smoothed F10.7 radio flux of 142+/-28 (1-sigma errors). This, we believe, represents a reprieve, in terms of reduced fuel costs, etc., for new satellites to be launched or old satellites (requiring reboosting) which have been placed in LEO. By monitoring the Sun s most deeply rooted magnetic fields; long-range solar activity can be predicted. Although a degree of uncertainty in the long-range predictions remains, requiring future monitoring, we do not expect the next cycle's + 2-sigma value will rise significantly above solar cycle #23's activity level.
AFT: Extending Solar Cycle Prediction with Data Assimilation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Upton, L.; Hathaway, D. H.
2017-12-01
The Advective Flux Transport (AFT) model is an innovative surface flux transport model that simulates the evolution of the radial magnetic field on the surface of the Sun. AFT was designed to be as realistic as possible by 1: incorporating the observed surface flows (meridional flow, differential rotation, and an explicit evolving convective pattern) and by 2: using data assimilation to incorporate the observed magnetic fields directly from line-of-sight (LOS) magnetograms. AFT has proven to be successful in simulating the evolution of the surface magnetic fields on both short time scales (days-weeks) as well as for long time scales (years). In particular, AFT has been shown to accurately predict the evolution of the Sun's dipolar magnetic field 3-5 years in advance. Since the Sun's polar magnetic field strength at solar cycle minimum is the best indicator of the amplitude of the next cycle, this has in turn extended our ability to make solar cycle predictions to 3-5 years before solar minimum occurs. Here, we will discuss some of the challenges of implementing data assimilation into AFT. We will also discuss the role of data assimilation in advancing solar cycle predictive capability.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lukasiak, A.; Ferrando, P.; Mcdonald, F. B.; Webber, W. R.
1994-01-01
The isotopic composition of C, N, O, Ne, Mg, Si cosmic ray nuclei has been measured in the energy range 50-200 MeV per nucleon using data collected by the High-Energy Telescope of the cosmic-ray subsystem experiment on the Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft. These data were collected during the period of minimum solar activity in 1986-1988 at an average distance of 27 AU with an effective solar modulation that was much less than at the Earth. The isotope analysis, based on the energy loss - total energy method, has a mass resolution of 0.2 amu for carbon and 0.4 amu at silicon. We find a (C-13)/(C-12) ratio slightly lower and a (O-18)/(O-16) ratio slightly enhanced over their solar system value. We also observe the previously reported enhancement of the (Ne-22)/(Ne-20) ratio relative to solar at the cosmic-ray source but only a weak, if any, enhancement of the (Mg-25)/(Mg-24), (Mg-26)/(Mg 24), and (Si-30)/(Si-28) ratios.
Rebirth of the Bashful ballerina
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mursula, Kalevi; Virtanen, Ilpo
2016-04-01
Heliospheric current sheet (HCS) is the continuation of the coronal magnetic equator into space, dividing the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) into two sectors. Because of its wavy structure, the HCS is also called the ballerina skirt. Several recent studies have proven that the HCS is southward shifted during about three years in the solar declining to minimum phase. This persistent phenomenon, now called the Bashful ballerina, has been seen in geomagnetic indices since 1930s, OMNI data since 1960s, WSO data since mid-1970s and in Ulysses probe measurements during the fast latitude scans in 1994-1995 and 2007. Here we study the long-term evolution of photospheric and coronal magnetic fields and the heliospheric current sheet since 1975 using synoptic maps from six observatories (WSO, MWO, Kitt Peak, SOLIS, SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI). All data sets depict a fairly similar long-term evolution of magnetic fields and the heliospheric current sheet, and agree on the southward shift of the heliospheric current sheet during all the five included cycles. We show that during solar cycles 20 -- 22, the southward shift of the HCS is due to the axial quadrupole term, reflecting the stronger magnetic field intensity at the southern pole during these times. During cycle 23 the asymmetry is less persistent and due to higher harmonics than the quadrupole term. Currently, in the early declining phase of cycle 24, the HCS is also shifted southward and is, again, due to the axial quadrupole, repeating the pattern of most previous cycles.
Bashful ballerina: Multi-instrument verification and recent behaviour
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mursula, Kalevi; Virtanen, Ilpo
2016-07-01
Heliospheric current sheet (HCS) is the continuation of the coronal magnetic equator into space, dividing the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) into two sectors. Because of its wavy structure, the HCS is also called the ballerina skirt. Several recent studies have proven that the HCS is southward shifted during about three years in the solar declining to minimum phase. This persistent phenomenon, now called the Bashful ballerina, has been seen in geomagnetic indices since 1930s, OMNI data since 1960s, WSO data since mid-1970s and in Ulysses probe measurements during the fast latitude scans in 1994-1995 and 2007. Here we study the long-term evolution of photospheric and coronal magnetic fields and the heliospheric current sheet since 1975 using synoptic maps from six observatories (WSO, MWO, Kitt Peak, SOLIS, SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI). All data sets depict a fairly similar long-term evolution of magnetic fields and the heliospheric current sheet, and agree on the southward shift of the heliospheric current sheet during all the five included cycles. We show that during solar cycles 20 -- 22, the southward shift of the HCS is due to the axial quadrupole term, reflecting the stronger magnetic field intensity at the southern pole during these times. During cycle 23 the asymmetry is less persistent and due to higher harmonics than the quadrupole term. Currently, in the early declining phase of cycle 24, the HCS is also shifted southward and is, again, due to the axial quadrupole, repeating the pattern of most previous cycles.
Temporal Variability of Atomic Hydrogen From the Mesopause to the Upper Thermosphere
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Qian, Liying; Burns, Alan G.; Solomon, Stan S.; Smith, Anne K.; McInerney, Joseph M.; Hunt, Linda A.; Marsh, Daniel R.; Liu, Hanli; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Vitt, Francis M.
2018-01-01
We investigate atomic hydrogen (H) variability from the mesopause to the upper thermosphere, on time scales of solar cycle, seasonal, and diurnal, using measurements made by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics satellite, and simulations by the National Center for Atmospheric Research Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model-eXtended (WACCM-X). In the mesopause region (85 to 95 km), the seasonal and solar cycle variations of H simulated by WACCM-X are consistent with those from SABER observations: H density is higher in summer than in winter, and slightly higher at solar minimum than at solar maximum. However, mesopause region H density from the Mass-Spectrometer-Incoherent-Scatter (National Research Laboratory Mass-Spectrometer-Incoherent-Scatter 00 (NRLMSISE-00)) empirical model has reversed seasonal variation compared to WACCM-X and SABER. From the mesopause to the upper thermosphere, H density simulated by WACCM-X switches its solar cycle variation twice, and seasonal dependence once, and these changes of solar cycle and seasonal variability occur in the lower thermosphere ( 95 to 130 km), whereas H from NRLMSISE-00 does not change solar cycle and seasonal dependence from the mesopause through the thermosphere. In the upper thermosphere (above 150 km), H density simulated by WACCM-X is higher at solar minimum than at solar maximum, higher in winter than in summer, and also higher during nighttime than daytime. The amplitudes of these variations are on the order of factors of 10, 2, and 2, respectively. This is consistent with NRLMSISE-00.
Solar cycle variability of nonmigrating tides in the infrared cooling of the thermosphere
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nischal, N.; Oberheide, J.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Marsh, D. R.
2017-12-01
Nitric Oxide (NO) at 5.3 μm and Carbon dioxide (CO2) at 15 μm are the major infrared emissions responsible for the radiative cooling of the thermosphere. We study the impact of two important diurnal nonmigrating tides, the DE2 and DE3, on NO and CO2 infrared emissions over a complete solar cycle (2002-2013) by (i) analyzing NO and CO2 cooling rate data from SABER and (ii) photochemical modeling using dynamical tides from a thermospheric empirical tidal model, CTMT. Both observed and modeled results show that the NO cooling rate amplitudes for DE2 and DE3 exhibit strong solar cycle dependence. NO 5.3 μm cooling rate tides are relatively unimportant for the infrared energy budget during solar minimum but important during solar maximum. On the other hand DE2 and DE3 in CO2 show comparatively small variability over a solar cycle. CO2 15 μm cooling rate tides remain, to a large extent, constant between solar minimum and maximum. This different responses by NO and CO2 emissions to the DE2 and DE3 during a solar cycle comes form the fact that the collisional reaction rate for NO is highly sensitive to the temperature comparative to that for CO2. Moreover, the solar cycle variability of these nonmigrating tides in thermospheric infrared emissions shows a clear QBO signals substantiating the impact of tropospheric weather system on the energy budget of the thermosphere. The relative contribution from the individual tidal drivers; temperature, density and advection to the observed DE2 and DE3 tides does not vary much over the course of the solar cycle, and this is true for both NO and CO2 emissions.
Tantalum-based semiconductors for solar water splitting.
Zhang, Peng; Zhang, Jijie; Gong, Jinlong
2014-07-07
Solar energy utilization is one of the most promising solutions for the energy crises. Among all the possible means to make use of solar energy, solar water splitting is remarkable since it can accomplish the conversion of solar energy into chemical energy. The produced hydrogen is clean and sustainable which could be used in various areas. For the past decades, numerous efforts have been put into this research area with many important achievements. Improving the overall efficiency and stability of semiconductor photocatalysts are the research focuses for the solar water splitting. Tantalum-based semiconductors, including tantalum oxide, tantalate and tantalum (oxy)nitride, are among the most important photocatalysts. Tantalum oxide has the band gap energy that is suitable for the overall solar water splitting. The more negative conduction band minimum of tantalum oxide provides photogenerated electrons with higher potential for the hydrogen generation reaction. Tantalates, with tunable compositions, show high activities owning to their layered perovskite structure. (Oxy)nitrides, especially TaON and Ta3N5, have small band gaps to respond to visible-light, whereas they can still realize overall solar water splitting with the proper positions of conduction band minimum and valence band maximum. This review describes recent progress regarding the improvement of photocatalytic activities of tantalum-based semiconductors. Basic concepts and principles of solar water splitting will be discussed in the introduction section, followed by the three main categories regarding to the different types of tantalum-based semiconductors. In each category, synthetic methodologies, influencing factors on the photocatalytic activities, strategies to enhance the efficiencies of photocatalysts and morphology control of tantalum-based materials will be discussed in detail. Future directions to further explore the research area of tantalum-based semiconductors for solar water splitting are also discussed.
Stereo Science Results at Solar Minimum
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Christian, Eric R.; Kaiser, Michael L.; Kucera Therese A.; St. Cyr, O. C.; van Driel-Gesztelyi, Lidia; Mandrini, Cristina H.
2009-01-01
The magnetic fields that drive solar activity are complex and inherently three-dimensional structures. Twisted flux ropes, magnetic reconnection and the initiation of solar storms, as well as space weather propagation through the heliosphere, are just a few of the topics that cannot properly be observed or modeled in only two dimensions. Examination of this three-dimensional complex has been hampered by the fact that solar remote sensing observations have occurred only from the Earth-Sun line, and in situ observations, while available from a greater variety of locations, have been sparse throughout the heliosphere.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Platzer-Björkman, C.; Frisk, C.; Larsen, J. K.
2015-12-14
Cu{sub 2}ZnSnS{sub 4} (CZTS) solar cells typically include a CdS buffer layer in between the CZTS and ZnO front contact. For sulfide CZTS, with a bandgap around 1.5 eV, the band alignment between CZTS and CdS is not ideal (“cliff-like”), which enhances interface recombination. In this work, we show how a Zn{sub 1−x}Sn{sub x}O{sub y} (ZTO) buffer layer can replace CdS, resulting in improved open circuit voltages (V{sub oc}) for CZTS devices. The ZTO is deposited by atomic layer deposition (ALD), with a process previously developed for Cu(In,Ga)Se{sub 2} solar cells. By varying the ALD process temperature, the position of themore » conduction band minimum of the ZTO is varied in relation to that of CZTS. A ZTO process at 95 °C is found to give higher V{sub oc} and efficiency as compared with the CdS reference devices. For a ZTO process at 120 °C, where the conduction band alignment is expected to be the same as for CdS, the V{sub oc} and efficiency is similar to the CdS reference. Further increase in conduction band minimum by lowering the deposition temperature to 80 °C shows blocking of forward current and reduced fill factor, consistent with barrier formation at the junction. Temperature-dependent current voltage analysis gives an activation energy for recombination of 1.36 eV for the best ZTO device compared with 0.98 eV for CdS. We argue that the V{sub oc} of the best ZTO devices is limited by bulk recombination, in agreement with a room temperature photoluminescence peak at around 1.3 eV for both devices, while the CdS device is limited by interface recombination.« less
Latitude and Power Characteristics of Solar Activity at the End of the Maunder Minimum
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ivanov, V. G.; Miletsky, E. V.
2017-12-01
Two important sources of information about sunspots in the Maunder minimum are the Spörer catalog (Spörer, 1889) and observations of the Paris observatory (Ribes and Nesme-Ribes, 1993), which cover in total the last quarter of the 17th and the first two decades of the 18th century. These data, in particular, contain information about sunspot latitudes. As we showed in (Ivanov et al., 2011; Ivanov and Miletsky, 2016), dispersions of sunspot latitude distributions are tightly related to sunspot indices, and we can estimate the level of solar activity in the past using a method which is not based on direct calculation of sunspots and weakly affected by loss of observational data. The latitude distributions of sunspots in the time of transition from the Maunder minimum to the regular regime of solar activity proved to be wide enough. It gives evidences in favor of, first, not very low cycle no.-3 (1712-1723) with the Wolf number in maximum W = 100 ± 50, and, second, nonzero activity in the maximum of cycle no.-4 (1700-1711) W = 60 ± 45. Therefore, the latitude distributions in the end of the Maunder minimum are in better agreement with the traditional Wolf numbers and new revisited indices of activity SN and GN (Clette et al., 2014; Svalgaard and Schatten, 2016) than with the GSN (Hoyt and Schatten, 1998); the latter provide much lower level of activity in this epoch.
The SATIRE-S model and why getting solar cycle spectral irradiance trends correct is so important
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ball, William; Haigh, Joanna; Krivova, Natalie; Unruh, Yvonne; Solanki, Sami
2014-05-01
There is currently a wide range of potential spectral solar irradiance (SSI) solar cycle (SC) amplitudes suggested by observations and models. Therefore, SSI SC changes are still not fully understood. The magnitude of the SC flux changes has a direct impact upon the temperature and chemistry of the Earth's atmosphere. To contribute to an understanding of the solar-climate connection, it is critical that we, as the solar community, communicate effectively with the climate community, providing uncertainties in SSI data and assessments of possible SSI options. We present the SATIRE-S reconstruction in the context of these SSI datasets. SATIRE-S is a physically based, consistent SSI reconstruction over the last three solar cycles. It shows different SC spectral variability at all wavelengths compared to the NRLSSI model, widely used in climate research. Most-importantly, SC changes in the ultra-violet (UV) can be twice as large in SATIRE-S as NRLSSI. Typically NRLSSI provides a lower limit of SC SSI UV variability. SORCE satellite observations provide SC magnitudes at the upper limit of variability, exceeding that of SATIRE-S by a factor of three at some UV wavelengths. There is currently no way to be certain if any of these three SSI datasets, or others, is correct. We also present the SSI datasets in terms of their impact on stratospheric ozone, within a 2D atmospheric model, as an example of why it is important to get SC changes correct. Using NRLSSI results in the 2D atmospheric model, we see a decrease in ozone concentration at all altitudes from solar maximum to minimum. SATIRE-S and SORCE/SOLSTICE observations instead show an increase in ozone concentration in the mesosphere. The magnitude of the increase in the mesosphere when using SOLSTICE also depends greatly upon the version of the data, which means that studies using different data versions of SOLSTICE may lead to different conclusions. These results highlight why an accurate understanding of SC SSI changes, and their uncertainties, are essential for the climate community that uses our work.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Stuart, Jeffrey; Howell, Kathleen; Wilson, Roby
2013-01-01
The Sun-Jupiter Trojan asteroids are celestial bodies of great scientific interest as well as potential resources offering water and other mineral resources for longterm human exploration of the solar system. Previous investigations under this project have addressed the automated design of tours within the asteroid swarm. This investigation expands the current automation scheme by incorporating options for a complete trajectory design approach to the Trojan asteroids. Computational aspects of the design procedure are automated such that end-to-end trajectories are generated with a minimum of human interaction after key elements and constraints associated with a proposed mission concept are specified.
NASA Radiation Belt Models AP-8 and AE-8
1989-09-30
MeV). The quiet day solar cycle variation is defined by taking the ratio of the omni-directional flux measured from solar minimum to a standard...Note 1: Model Evaluation, TREND issued at IASB , Printed at MATRA, ESTEC/Contract #8011/88/NIJMAC, 28 June 1989. "Models of the Trapped Radiation
Energy Systems Integration News | Energy Systems Integration Facility |
Aids Solar Power in Hawaii Inverter load rejection overvoltage tests completed by NREL with partner the report, Inverter Load Rejection Over-Voltage Testing: SolarCity CRADA Task 1a Final Report. Based % of minimum daytime load (MDL) to 250% of MDL. If those increases are implemented, they will represent
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zhou, Dazhuang; Gaza, R.; Roed, Y.; Semones, E.; Lee, K.; Steenburgh, R.; Johnson, S.; Flanders, J.; Zapp, N.
2010-01-01
Radiation field of particles in low Earth orbit (LEO) is mainly composed of galactic cosmic rays (GCR), solar energetic particles and particles in SAA (South Atlantic Anomaly). GCR are modulated by solar activity, at the period of solar minimum activity, GCR intensity is at maximum and the main contributor for space radiation is GCR. At present for space radiation measurements conducted by JSC (Johnson Space Center) SRAG (Space Radiation Analysis Group), the preferred active dosimeter sensitive to all LET (Linear Energy Transfer) is the tissue equivalent proportional counter (TEPC); the preferred passive dosimeters are thermoluminescence dosimeters (TLDs) and optically stimulated luminescence dosimeters (OSLDs) sensitive to low LET as well as CR-39 plastic nuclear track detectors (PNTDs) sensitive to high LET. For the method using passive dosimeters, radiation quantities for all LET can be obtained by combining radiation results measured with TLDs/OSLDs and CR-39 PNTDs. TEPC, TLDs/OSLDs and CR-39 detectors were used to measure the radiation field for the ISS (International Space Station) - Expedition 18-19/ULF2 space mission which was conducted from 15 November 2008 to 31 July 2009 - near the period of the recent solar minimum activity. LET spectra (differential and integral fluence, absorbed dose and dose equivalent) and radiation quantities were measured for positions TEPC, TESS (Temporary Sleeping Station, inside the polyethylene lined sleep station), SM-P 327 and 442 (Service Module - Panel 327 and 442). This paper presents radiation LET spectra measured with TEPC and CR-39 PNTDs and radiation dose measured with TLDs/OSLDs as well as the radiation quantities combined from results measured with passive dosimeters.
MESSENGER soft X-ray observations of the quiet solar corona
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schwartz, Richard A.; Hudson, Hugh S.; Tolbert, Anne K; Dennis, Brian R.
2014-06-01
In a remarkable result from their "SphinX" experiment, Sylwester et al. (2012) found a non-varying base level of soft X-ray emission at the quietest times in 2009. We describe comparable data from the soft X-ray monitor on board MESSENGER (en route to Mercury) which had excellent coverage both in 2009 and during the true solar minimum of 2008. These observations overlap SphinX's and also are often exactly at Sun-MESSENGER-Earth conjunctions. During solar minimum the Sun-MESSENGER distance varied substantially, allowing us to use the inverse-square law to help distinguish the aperture flux (ie, solar X-rays) from that due to sources of background in the 2-5 keV range. The MESSENGER data show a non-varying background level for many months in 2008 when no active regions were present. We compare these data in detail with those from SphinX. Both sets of data reveal a different behavior when magnetic active regions are present on the Sun, and when they are not.Reference: Sylwester et al., ApJ 751, 111 (2012)
A Mechanism For Solar Forcing of Climate: Did the Maunder Minimum Cause the Little Ice Age?
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Yung, Yuk L.
2004-01-01
The mechanism we wish to demonstrate exploits chemical, radiative, and dynamical sensitivities in the stratosphere to affect the climate of the troposphere. The sun, while its variability in total radiative output over the course of the solar cycle is on the order of 0.1%, exhibits variability in the UV output on the order of 5%. We expect to show that a substantially decreased solar UV output lessened the heating of the Earth's stratosphere during the Maunder Minimum, through decreased radiative absorption by ozone and oxygen. These changes in stratospheric heating would lead to major changes in the stratospheric zonal wind pattern which would in turn affect the propagation characteristics of planetary-scale waves launched in the winter hemisphere. Until recently, there was no quantitative data to relate the changes in the stratosphere to those at the surface. There is now empirical evidence from the NCEP Reanalysis data that a definitive effect of the solar cycle on climate in the troposphere exists. Our recent work is summarized as follows (see complete list of publications in later part of this report).
Automated identification and tracking of polar-cap plasma patches at solar minimum
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Burston, R.; Hodges, K.; Astin, I.; Jayachandran, P. T.
2014-03-01
A method of automatically identifying and tracking polar-cap plasma patches, utilising data inversion and feature-tracking methods, is presented. A well-established and widely used 4-D ionospheric imaging algorithm, the Multi-Instrument Data Assimilation System (MIDAS), inverts slant total electron content (TEC) data from ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers to produce images of the free electron distribution in the polar-cap ionosphere. These are integrated to form vertical TEC maps. A flexible feature-tracking algorithm, TRACK, previously used extensively in meteorological storm-tracking studies is used to identify and track maxima in the resulting 2-D data fields. Various criteria are used to discriminate between genuine patches and "false-positive" maxima such as the continuously moving day-side maximum, which results from the Earth's rotation rather than plasma motion. Results for a 12-month period at solar minimum, when extensive validation data are available, are presented. The method identifies 71 separate structures consistent with patch motion during this time. The limitations of solar minimum and the consequent small number of patches make climatological inferences difficult, but the feasibility of the method for patches larger than approximately 500 km in scale is demonstrated and a larger study incorporating other parts of the solar cycle is warranted. Possible further optimisation of discrimination criteria, particularly regarding the definition of a patch in terms of its plasma concentration enhancement over the surrounding background, may improve results.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Eickhoff, Martin; Meyer-Grünefeldt, Mirko; Keller, Lothar
2016-05-01
Nowadays molten salt is efficiently used in point concentrating solar thermal power plants. Line focusing systems still have the disadvantage of elevated heat losses at night because of active freeze protection of the solar field piping system. In order to achieve an efficient operation of line focusing solar power plants using molten salt, a new plant design and a novel operating strategy is developed for Linear Fresnel- and Parabolic Trough power plants. Daily vespertine drainage of the solar field piping and daily matutinal refilling of the solar preheated absorber tubes eliminate the need of nocturnal heating of the solar field and reduce nocturnal heat losses to a minimum. The feasibility of this new operating strategy with all its sub-steps has been demonstrated experimentally.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Newkirk, G., Jr.
1975-01-01
Elemental abundances in the solar corona are studied. Abundances in the corona, solar wind and solar cosmic rays are compared to those in the photosphere. The variation in silicon and iron abundance in the solar wind as compared to helium is studied. The coronal small and large scale structure is investigated, emphasizing magnetic field activity and examining cosmic ray generation mechanisms. The corona is observed in the X-ray and EUV regions. The nature of coronal transients is discussed with emphasis on solar-wind modulation of galactic cosmic rays. A schematic plan view of the interplanetary magnetic field during sunspot minimum is given showing the presence of magnetic bubbles and their concentration in the region around 4-5 AU by a fast solar wind stream.
Predictions of Sunspot Cycle 24: A Comparison with Observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bhatt, N. J.; Jain, R.
2017-12-01
The space weather is largely affected due to explosions on the Sun viz. solar flares and CMEs, which, however, in turn depend upon the magnitude of the solar activity i e. number of sunspots and their magnetic configuration. Owing to these space weather effects, predictions of sunspot cycle are important. Precursor techniques, particularly employing geomagnetic indices, are often used in the prediction of the maximum amplitude of a sunspot cycle. Based on the average geomagnetic activity index aa (since 1868 onwards) for the year of the sunspot minimum and the preceding four years, Bhatt et al. (2009) made two predictions for sunspot cycle 24 considering 2008 as the year of sunspot minimum: (i) The annual maximum amplitude would be 92.8±19.6 (1-sigma accuracy) indicating a somewhat weaker cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21-23, and (ii) smoothed monthly mean sunspot number maximum would be in October 2012±4 months (1-sigma accuracy). However, observations reveal that the sunspot minima extended up to 2009, and the maximum amplitude attained is 79, with a monthly mean sunspot number maximum of 102.3 in February 2014. In view of the observations and particularly owing to the extended solar minimum in 2009, we re-examined our prediction model and revised the prediction results. We find that (i) The annual maximum amplitude of cycle 24 = 71.2 ± 19.6 and (ii) A smoothed monthly mean sunspot number maximum in January 2014±4 months. We discuss our failure and success aspects and present improved predictions for the maximum amplitude as well as for the timing, which are now in good agreement with the observations. Also, we present the limitations of our forecasting in the view of long term predictions. We show if year of sunspot minimum activity and magnitude of geomagnetic activity during sunspot minimum are taken correctly then our prediction method appears to be a reliable indicator to forecast the sunspot amplitude of the following solar cycle. References:Bhatt, N.J., Jain, R. & Aggarwal, M.: 2009, Sol. Phys. 260, 225
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Suresh, A.; Dikpati, M.; Burkepile, J.; de Toma, G.
2013-12-01
The structure of the Sun's corona varies with solar cycle, from a near spherical symmetry at solar maximum to an axial dipole at solar minimum. Why does this pattern occur? It is widely accepted that large-scale coronal structure is governed by magnetic fields, which are most likely generated by the dynamo action in the solar interior. In order to understand the variation in coronal structure, we couple a potential field source surface model with a cyclic dynamo model. In this coupled model, the magnetic field inside the convection zone is governed by the dynamo equation and above the photosphere these dynamo-generated fields are extended from the photosphere to the corona by using a potential field source surface model. Under the assumption of axisymmetry, the large-scale poloidal fields can be written in terms of the curl of a vector potential. Since from the photosphere and above the magnetic diffusivity is essentially infinite, the evolution of the vector potential is given by Laplace's Equation, the solution of which is obtained in the form of a first order Associated Legendre Polynomial. By taking linear combinations of these polynomial terms, we find solutions that match more complex coronal structures. Choosing images of the global corona from the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory at each Carrington rotation over half a cycle (1986-1991), we compute the coefficients of the Associated Legendre Polynomials up to degree eight and compare with observation. We reproduce some previous results that at minimum the dipole term dominates, but that this term fades with the progress of the cycle and higher order multipole terms begin to dominate. We find that the amplitudes of these terms are not exactly the same in the two limbs, indicating that there is some phi dependence. Furthermore, by comparing the solar minimum corona during the past three minima (1986, 1996, and 2008), we find that, while both the 1986 and 1996 minima were dipolar, the minimum in 2008 was unusual, as there was departure from a dipole. In order to investigate the physical cause of this departure from dipole, we implement north-south asymmetry in the surface source of the magnetic fields in our model, and find that such n/s asymmetry in solar cycle could be one of the reasons for this departure. This work is partially supported by NASA's LWS grant with award number NNX08AQ34G. NCAR is sponsored by the NSF.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Burger, Dale R. (Inventor)
1986-01-01
A method is disclosed for scribing at least three grid contacts of a photovoltaic cell to electrically isolate them from the grid contact pattern used to collect solar current generated by the cell, and using the scribed segments for determining parameters of the cell by a combination of contact end resistance (CER) measurements using a minimum of three equally or unequally spaced lines, and transmission line modal (TLM) measurements using a minimum of four unequally spaced lines. TLM measurements may be used to determine sheet resistance under the contact, R.sub.sk, while CER measurements are used to determine contact resistivity, .rho..sub.c, from a nomograph of contact resistivity as a function of contact end resistance and sheet resistivity under the contact. In some cases, such as the case of silicon photovoltaic cells, sheet resistivity under the contact may be assumed to be equal to the known sheet resistance, R.sub.s, of the semiconductor material, thereby obviating the need for TLM measurements to determine R.sub.sk.
Utilising shade to optimize UV exposure for vitamin D
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Turnbull, D. J.; Parisi, A. V.
2008-01-01
Numerous studies have stated that humans need to utilise full sun radiation, at certain times of the day, to assist the body in synthesising the required levels of vitamin D3. The time needed to be spent in the full sun depends on a number of factors, for example, age, skin type, latitude, solar zenith angle. Current Australian guidelines suggest exposure to approximately 1/6 to 1/3 of a minimum erythemal dose (MED), depending on age, would be appropriate to provide adequate vitamin D3 levels. The aim of the study was to determine the exposure times to diffuse solar UV to receive exposures of 1/6 and 1/3 MED for a changing solar zenith angle in order to assess the possible role that diffuse UV (scattered radiation) may play in vitamin D3 effective UV exposures (UVD3). Diffuse and global erythemal UV measurements were conducted at five minute intervals over a twelve month period for a solar zenith angle range of 4° to 80° at a latitude of 27.6° S. For diffuse UV exposures of 1/6 and 1/3 MED, solar zenith angles smaller than 60° and 50° respectively can be utilised for exposure times of less than 10 min. Spectral measurements showed that, for a solar zenith angle of 40°, the UVA (315-400 nm) in the diffuse component of the solar UV is reduced by approximately 62% compared to the UVA in the global UV, whereas UVD3 wavelengths are only reduced by approximately 43%. At certain latitudes, diffuse UV under shade may play an important role in providing the human body with adequate levels of UVD3 (290-330 nm) radiation without experiencing the high levels of damaging UVA observed in full sun.
Utilising shade to optimize UV exposure for vitamin D
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Turnbull, D. J.; Parisi, A. V.
2008-06-01
Numerous studies have stated that humans need to utilise full sun radiation, at certain times of the day, to assist the body in synthesising the required levels of vitamin D3. The time needed to be spent in the full sun depends on a number of factors, for example, age, skin type, latitude, solar zenith angle. Current Australian guidelines suggest exposure to approximately 1/6 to 1/3 of a minimum erythemal dose (MED), depending on age, would be appropriate to provide adequate vitamin D3 levels. The aim of the study was to determine the exposure times to diffuse solar UV to receive exposures of 1/6 and 1/3 MED for a changing solar zenith angle in order to assess the possible role that diffuse UV (scattered radiation) may play in vitamin D3 effective UV exposures (UVD3). Diffuse and global erythemal UV measurements were conducted at five minute intervals over a twelve month period for a solar zenith angle range of 4° to 80° at a latitude of 27.6° S. For a diffuse UV exposure of 1/3 MED, solar zenith angles smaller than approximately 50° can be utilised for exposure times of less than 10 min. Spectral measurements showed that, for a solar zenith angle of 40°, the UVA (315-400 nm) in the diffuse component of the solar UV is reduced by approximately 62% compared to the UVA in the global UV, whereas UVD3 wavelengths are only reduced by approximately 43%. At certain latitudes, diffuse UV under shade may play an important role in providing the human body with adequate levels of UVD3 (290-315 nm) radiation without experiencing the high levels of UVA observed in full sun.
Dependence of performance of Si nanowire solar cells on geometry of the nanowires.
Khan, Firoz; Baek, Seong-Ho; Kim, Jae Hyun
2014-01-01
The dependence of performance of silicon nanowires (SiNWs) solar cells on the growth condition of the SiNWs has been described. Metal-assisted electroless etching (MAE) technique has been used to grow SiNWs array. Different concentration of aqueous solution containing AgNO3 and HF for Ag deposition is used. The diameter and density of SiNWs are found to be dependent on concentration of solution used for Ag deposition. The diameter and density of SiNWs have been used to calculate the filling ratio of the SINWs arrays. The filling ratio is increased with increase in AgNO3 concentration, whereas it is decreased with increase in HF concentration. The minimum reflectance value achieved is ~1% for SiNWs of length of ~1.2 μ m in the wavelength range of 300-1000 nm. The performance and diode parameters strongly depend on the geometry of SiNWs. The maximum short circuit current density achieved is 35.6 mA/cm(2). The conversion efficiency of solar cell is 9.73% for SiNWs with length, diameter, and wire density of ~1.2 μ m, ~75 nm, and 90 μ m(-2), respectively.
Solar Cycle 24 UV Radiation: Lowest in more than 6 Decades
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schroder, Klaus-Peter; Mittag, Marco; Schmitt, J. H. M. M.
2015-01-01
Using spectra taken by the robotic telescope ``TIGRE'' (see Fig. 1 and the TIGRE-poster presented by Schmitt et al. at this conference) and its mid-resolution (R=20,000) HEROS double-channel echelle spectrograph, we present our measurements of the solar Ca II H&K chromospheric emission. Using moonlight, we applied the calibration and definition of the Mt. Wilson S-index , which allows a direct comparison with historic observations, reaching back to the early 1960's. At the same time, coming from the same EUV emitting plage regions, the Ca II H&K emission is a good proxy for the latter, which is of interest as a forcing factor in climate models. Our measurements probe the weak, asynchronous activity cycle 24 around its 2nd maximum during the past winter. Our S-values suggest that this maximum is the lowest in chromospheric emission since at least 60 years -- following the longest and deepest minimum since a century. Our observations suggest a similarly long-term (on a scale of decades) low of the far-UV radiation, which should be considered by the next generation of climate models. The current, very interesting activity behaviour calls for a concerted effort on long-term solar monitoring.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Martens, Petrus C.; Yeates, A. R.; Mackay, D.; Pillai, K. G.
2013-07-01
Using metadata produced by automated solar feature detection modules developed for SDO (Martens et al. 2012) we have discovered some trends in filament chirality and filament-sigmoid relations that are new and in part contradict the current consensus. Automated detection of solar features has the advantage over manual detection of having the detection criteria applied consistently, and in being able to deal with enormous amounts of data, like the 1 Terabyte per day that SDO produces. Here we use the filament detection module developed by Bernasconi, which has metadata from 2000 on, and the sigmoid sniffer, which has been producing metadata from AIA 94 A images since October 2011. The most interesting result we find is that the hemispheric chirality preference for filaments (dextral in the north, and v.v.), studied in detail for a three year period by Pevtsov et al. (2003) seems to disappear during parts of the decline of cycle 23 and during the extended solar minimum that followed. Moreover the hemispheric chirality rule seems to be much less pronounced during the onset of cycle 24. For sigmoids we find the expected correlation between chirality and handedness (S or Z) shape but not as strong as expected.
A comparison of GaAs and Si hybrid solar power systems
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Heinbockel, J. H.; Roberts, A. S., Jr.
1977-01-01
Five different hybrid solar power systems using silicon solar cells to produce thermal and electric power are modeled and compared with a hybrid system using a GaAs cell. Among the indices determined are capital cost per unit electric power plus mechanical power, annual cost per unit electric energy, and annual cost per unit electric plus mechanical work. Current costs are taken to be $35,000/sq m for GaAs cells with an efficiency of 15% and $1000/sq m for Si cells with an efficiency of 10%. It is shown that hybrid systems can be competitive with existing methods of practical energy conversion. Limiting values for annual costs of Si and GaAs cells are calculated to be 10.3 cents/kWh and 6.8 cents/kWh, respectively. Results for both systems indicate that for a given flow rate there is an optimal operating condition for minimum cost photovoltaic output. For Si cell costs of $50/sq m optimal performance can be achieved at concentrations of about 10; for GaAs cells costing 1000/sq m, optimal performance can be obtained at concentrations of around 100. High concentration hybrid systems offer a distinct cost advantage over flat systems.
The Formation of CIRs at Stream-Stream Interfaces and Resultant Geomagnetic Activity
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Richardson, I. G.
2005-01-01
Corotating interaction regions (CIRs) are regions of compressed plasma formed at the leading edges of corotating high-speed solar wind streams originating in coronal holes as they interact with the preceding slow solar wind. Although particularly prominent features of the solar wind during the declining and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, they may also be present at times of higher solar activity. We describe how CIRs are formed, and their geomagnetic effects, which principally result from brief southward interplanetary magnetic field excursions associated with Alfven waves. Seasonal and long-term variations in these effects are briefly discussed.
The Surface Density Distribution in the Solar Nebula
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Davis, Sanford S.
2004-01-01
The commonly used minimum mass power law representation of the pre-solar nebula is reanalyzed using a new cumulative-mass-model. This model predicts a smoother surface density approximation compared with methods based on direct computation of surface density. The density is quantified using two independent analytical formulations. First, a best-fit transcendental function is applied directly to the basic planetary data. Next a solution to the time-dependent disk evolution equation is parametrically adapted to the solar nebula data. The latter model is shown to be a good approximation to the finite-size early Solar Nebula, and by extension to other extra solar protoplanetary disks.
Effect of solar activity on the repetitiveness of some meteorological phenomena
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Todorović, Nedeljko; Vujović, Dragana
2014-12-01
In this paper we research the relationship between solar activity and the weather on Earth. This research is based on the assumption that every ejection of magnetic field energy and particles from the Sun (also known as Solar wind) has direct effects on the Earth's weather. The impact of coronal holes and active regions on cold air advection (cold fronts, precipitation, and temperature decrease on the surface and higher layers) in the Belgrade region (Serbia) was analyzed. Some active regions and coronal holes appear to be in a geo-effective position nearly every 27 days, which is the duration of a solar rotation. A similar period of repetitiveness (27-29 days) of the passage of the cold front, and maximum and minimum temperatures measured at surface and at levels of 850 and 500 hPa were detected. We found that 10-12 days after Solar wind velocity starts significantly increasing, we could expect the passage of a cold front. After eight days, the maximum temperatures in the Belgrade region are measured, and it was found that their minimum values appear after 12-16 days. The maximum amount of precipitation occurs 14 days after Solar wind is observed. A recurring period of nearly 27 days of different phases of development for hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma was found. This analysis confirmed that the intervals of time between two occurrences of some particular meteorological parameter correlate well with Solar wind and A index.
Un modelo de dínamo para ɛ Eridani
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sraibman, L.; Buccino, A. P.; Minotti, F.
2017-10-01
Eridani is an active young K2V star (0.8 Gyr), which exhibits a short and long-term chromospheric cycles of 3 and 13-yr periods, between 1985 and 1992, the star went through a broad activity minimum, similar to the solar Maunder Minimum-state. Motivated by these results, we found in Eridani a great opportunity to test the solar cinematic dynamo model built in sraibman16. In this work we present the components of the magnetic fields in the stellar surface derived from the model. To contrast these results to the registry of activity obtained from stellar observations, we also computed an activity index associated to the magnetic field.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Macotela, Edith L.; Raulin, Jean-Pierre; Manninen, Jyrki; Correia, Emília; Turunen, Tauno; Magalhães, Antonio
2017-12-01
The daytime lower ionosphere behaves as a solar X-ray flare detector, which can be monitored using very low frequency (VLF) radio waves that propagate inside the Earth-ionosphere waveguide. In this paper, we infer the lower ionosphere sensitivity variation over a complete solar cycle by using the minimum X-ray fluence (FXmin) necessary to produce a disturbance of the quiescent ionospheric conductivity. FXmin is the photon energy flux integrated over the time interval from the start of a solar X-ray flare to the beginning of the ionospheric disturbance recorded as amplitude deviation of the VLF signal. FXmin is computed for ionospheric disturbances that occurred in the time interval of December-January from 2007 to 2016 (solar cycle 24). The computation of FXmin uses the X-ray flux in the wavelength band below 0.2 nm and the amplitude of VLF signals transmitted from France (HWU), Turkey (TBB), and U.S. (NAA), which were recorded in Brazil, Finland, and Peru. The main result of this study is that the long-term variation of FXmin is correlated with the level of solar activity, having FXmin values in the range (1 - 12) × 10-7 J/m2. Our result suggests that FXmin is anticorrelated with the lower ionosphere sensitivity, confirming that the long-term variation of the ionospheric sensitivity is anticorrelated with the level of solar activity. This result is important to identify the minimum X-ray fluence that an external source of ionization must overcome in order to produce a measurable ionospheric disturbance during daytime.
Nature and Variability of Coronal Streamers and their Relationship to the Slow Speed Wind
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Strachan, Leonard
2005-01-01
NASA Grant NAG5-12781 is a study on the "Nature and Variability of Coronal Streamers and their Relationship to the Slow Speed Wind." The two main goals of this study are to identify: 1) Where in the streamer structure does the solar wind originate, and 2) What coronal conditions are responsible for the variability of the slow speed wind. To answer the first question, we examined the mostly closed magnetic field regions in streamer cores to search for evidence of outflow. Preliminary results from the OVI Doppler dimming ratios indicates that most of the flow originates from the edges of coronal streamers but this idea should be confirmed by a comparison of the coronal plasma properties with in situ solar wind data. To answer the second question, the work performed thus far suggests that solar minimum streamers have larger perpendicular velocity distributions than do solar maximum streamers. If it can be shown that solar minimum streamers also produce higher solar wind speeds then this would suggest that streamers and coronal holes have similar solar wind acceleration mechanisms. The key to both questions lie in the analysis of the in situ solar wind data sets. This work was not able to be completed during the period of performance and therefore the grant was formally extended for an additional year at no cost to NASA. We hope to have final results and a publication by the end of the calendar year 2004. The SAO personnel involved in the research are Leonard Strachan (PI), Mari Paz Miralles, Alexander Panasyuk, and a Southern University student Michael Baham.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Clancy, Daniel J.; Oezguener, Uemit; Graham, Ronald E.
1994-01-01
The potential for excessive plume impingement loads on Space Station Freedom solar arrays, caused by jet firings from an approaching Space Shuttle, is addressed. An artificial neural network is designed to determine commanded solar array beta gimbal angle for minimum plume loads. The commanded angle would be determined dynamically. The network design proposed involves radial basis functions as activation functions. Design, development, and simulation of this network design are discussed.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Briczinski, S. J., Jr.; Bernhardt, P. A.; Siefring, C. L.; Michell, R.; Hampton, D. L.; Watkins, B. J.; Bristow, W. A.
2014-12-01
Neutral hydrogen plays an important role in determining the state of the plasmasphere and its response to forcing from geomagnetic storms. Hydrogen's solar cycle variation is counterintuitive: there is more hydrogen at solar minimum at 300 km that there is at solar maximum. Similarly there is more hydrogen in winter than in summer and hydrogen density maximizes in the morning. In this presentation we describe these variations and consider some possible causes for them.
Solar array stepping problems in satellites and solutions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Maharana, P. K.; Goel, P. S.
1992-01-01
The dynamics problems arising due to stepping motion of the solar arrays of spacecraft are studied. To overcome these problems, design improvements in the drive logic based on the phase plane analysis are suggested. The improved designs are applied to the Solar Array Drive Assembly (SADA) of IRS-1B and INSAT-2A satellites. In addition, an alternate torquing strategy for very successful slewing of the arrays, and with minimum excitation of flexible modes, is proposed.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wexler, D. B.; Jensen, E. A.; Hollweg, J. V.; Heiles, C.; Efimov, A. I.; Vierinen, J.; Coster, A. J.
2017-02-01
Faraday rotation (FR) of transcoronal radio transmissions from spacecraft near superior conjunction enables study of the temporal variations in coronal plasma density, velocity, and magnetic field. The MESSENGER spacecraft 8.4 GHz radio, transmitting through the corona with closest line-of-sight approach 1.63-1.89 solar radii and near-equatorial heliolatitudes, was recorded soon after the deep solar minimum of solar cycle 23. During egress from superior conjunction, FR gradually decreased, and an overlay of wave-like FR fluctuations (FRFs) with periods of hundreds to thousands of seconds was found. The FRF power spectrum was characterized by a power law relation, with the baseline spectral index being -2.64. A transient power increase showed relative flattening of the spectrum and bands of enhanced spectral power at 3.3 mHz and 6.1 mHz. Our results confirm the presence of coronal FRF similar to those described previously at greater solar offset. Interpreted as Alfvén waves crossing the line of sight radially near the proximate point, low-frequency FRF convey an energy flux density higher than that of the background solar wind kinetic energy, but only a fraction of that required to accelerate the solar wind. Even so, this fraction is quite variable and potentially escalates to energetically significant values with relatively modest changes in estimated magnetic field strength and electron concentration. Given the uncertainties in these key parameters, as well as in solar wind properties close to the Sun at low heliolatitudes, we cannot yet confidently assign the quantitative role for Alfvén wave energy from this region in driving the slow solar wind.
Modulation of galactic and anomalous cosmic rays in the inner heliosphere
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Heber, B.
Our knowledge on how galactic and anomalous cosmic rays are modulated in the inner heliosphere has been dramatically enlarged due to measurements provided by several missions launched in the past ten years. The current paradigma of singly charged anomalous cosmic rays has been confirmed by recent measurements from the SAMPEX and ACE satelite. Ulysses explored the inner heliosphere at polar regions during the last solar minimum period and is heading again to high heliographic latitudes during the time of the conference in July, 2000. The Sun approaches maximum activity when the spacecraft is at high heliographic latitudes giving us for the first time the possibility to explore modulation of cosmic rays in the inner three-dimensional heliosphere during such conditions. Ulysses electron measurements in addition to the 1 AU ICE electron and IMP helium measurements allows us to investigate charge sign dependent modulation over a full 22-year solar magnetic cycle. Implications of these observations for our understanding of different modulation processes in the inner three-dimensional heliosphere are presented.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sudhakar, N.; Rajasekar, N.; Akhil, Saya; Jyotheeswara Reddy, K.
2017-11-01
The boost converter is the most desirable DC-DC power converter for renewable energy applications for its favorable continuous input current characteristics. In other hand, these DC-DC converters known as practical nonlinear systems are prone to several types of nonlinear phenomena including bifurcation, quasiperiodicity, intermittency and chaos. These undesirable effects has to be controlled for maintaining normal periodic operation of the converter and to ensure the stability. This paper presents an effective solution to control the chaos in solar fed DC-DC boost converter since the converter experiences wide range of input power variation which leads to chaotic phenomena. Controlling of chaos is significantly achieved using optimal circuit parameters obtained through Nelder-Mead Enhanced Bacterial Foraging Optimization Algorithm. The optimization renders the suitable parameters in minimum computational time. The results are compared with the traditional methods. The obtained results of the proposed system ensures the operation of the converter within the controllable region.
An Extended IEEE 118-Bus Test System With High Renewable Penetration
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Pena, Ivonne; Martinez-Anido, Carlo Brancucci; Hodge, Bri-Mathias
This article describes a new publicly available version of the IEEE 118-bus test system, named NREL-118. The database is based on the transmission representation (buses and lines) of the IEEE 118-bus test system, with a reconfigured generation representation using three regions of the US Western Interconnection from the latest Western Electricity Coordination Council (WECC) 2024 Common Case [1]. Time-synchronous hourly load, wind, and solar time series are provided for over one year (8784 hours). The public database presented and described in this manuscript will allow researchers to model a test power system using detailed transmission, generation, load, wind, and solarmore » data. This database includes key additional features that add to the current IEEE 118-bus test model, such as: the inclusion of 10 generation technologies with different heat rate functions, minimum stable levels and ramping rates, GHG emissions rates, regulation and contingency reserves, and hourly time series data for one full year for load, wind and solar generation.« less
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Farrugia, C. J.; Harris, B.; Leitner, M.; Moestl, C.; Galvin, A. B.; Simunac, K. D. C.; Torbert, R. B.; Temmer, M. B.; Veronig, A. M.; Erkaev, N. V.;
2012-01-01
We discuss the temporal variations and frequency distributions of solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters during the solar minimum of 2007 - 2009 from measurements returned by the IMPACT and PLASTIC instruments on STEREO-A.We find that the density and total field strength were significantly weaker than in the previous minimum. The Alfven Mach number was higher than typical. This reflects the weakness of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) forces, and has a direct effect on the solar wind-magnetosphere interactions.We then discuss two major aspects that this weak solar activity had on the magnetosphere, using data from Wind and ground-based observations: i) the dayside contribution to the cross-polar cap potential (CPCP), and ii) the shapes of the magnetopause and bow shock. For i) we find a low interplanetary electric field of 1.3+/-0.9 mV/m and a CPCP of 37.3+/-20.2 kV. The auroral activity is closely correlated to the prevalent stream-stream interactions. We suggest that the Alfven wave trains in the fast streams and Kelvin-Helmholtz instability were the predominant agents mediating the transfer of solar wind momentum and energy to the magnetosphere during this three-year period. For ii) we determine 328 magnetopause and 271 bow shock crossings made by Geotail, Cluster 1, and the THEMIS B and C spacecraft during a three-month interval when the daily averages of the magnetic and kinetic energy densities attained their lowest value during the three years under survey.We use the same numerical approach as in Fairfield's empirical model and compare our findings with three magnetopause models. The stand-off distance of the subsolar magnetopause and bow shock were 11.8 R(sub E) and 14.35 R(sub E), respectively. When comparing with Fairfield's classic result, we find that the subsolar magnetosheath is thinner by approx. 1 R(sub E). This is mainly due to the low dynamic pressure which results in a sunward shift of the magnetopause. The magnetopause is more flared than in Fairfield's model. By contrast the bow shock is less flared, and the latter is the result of weaker MHD forces.
Effects of meridional flow variations on solar cycles 23 and 24
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Upton, Lisa; Hathaway, David H., E-mail: lisa.a.upton@vanderbilt.edu, E-mail: lar0009@uah.edu, E-mail: david.hathaway@nasa.gov
2014-09-10
The faster meridional flow that preceded the solar cycle 23/24 minimum is thought to have led to weaker polar field strengths, producing the extended solar minimum and the unusually weak cycle 24. To determine the impact of meridional flow variations on the sunspot cycle, we have simulated the Sun's surface magnetic field evolution with our newly developed surface flux transport model. We investigate three different cases: a constant average meridional flow, the observed time-varying meridional flow, and a time-varying meridional flow in which the observed variations from the average have been doubled. Comparison of these simulations shows that the variationsmore » in the meridional flow over cycle 23 have a significant impact (∼20%) on the polar fields. However, the variations produced polar fields that were stronger than they would have been otherwise. We propose that the primary cause of the extended cycle 23/24 minimum and weak cycle 24 was the weakness of cycle 23 itself—with fewer sunspots, there was insufficient flux to build a big cycle. We also find that any polar counter-cells in the meridional flow (equatorward flow at high latitudes) produce flux concentrations at mid-to-high latitudes that are not consistent with observations.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McDonald, S. E.; Emmert, J. T.; Krall, J.; Mannucci, A. J.; Vergados, P.
2017-12-01
To understand how and why the distribution of geospace plasma in the ionosphere/plasmasphere is evolving over multi-decadal time scales in response to solar, heliospheric and atmospheric forcing, it is critically important to have long-term, stable datasets. In this study, we use a newly constructed dataset of GPS-based total electron content (TEC) developed by JPL. The JPL Global Ionosphere Mapping (GIM) algorithm was used to generate a 35-station dataset spanning two solar minimum periods (1993-2014). We also use altimeter-derived TEC measurements from TOPEX-Poseidon and Jason-1 to construct a continuous dataset for the 1995-2014 time period. Both longterm datasets are compared to each other to study interminimum changes in the global TEC (during 1995-1995 and 2008-2009). We use the SAMI3 physics-based model of the ionosphere to compare the simulations of 1995-2014 with the JPL TEC and TOPEX/Jason-1 datasets. To drive SAMI3, we use the Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance (NRLSSI) model to specify the EUV irradiances, and NRLMSIS to specify the thermosphere. We adjust the EUV irradiances and thermospheric constituents to match the TEC datasets and draw conclusions regarding sources of the differences between the two solar minimum periods.
Transitioning the Rice Realtime Forecast Models to DSCOVR
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bala, R.; Reiff, P. H.
2016-12-01
The Rice realtime forecast models of global magnetospheric indices Kp, Dst and AE have been actively running at mms.rice.edu/realtime/forecast.html for nearly a decade now. These neural network models were trained using the ACE archival solar wind data while the near-realtime forecasts are provided using instantaneous upwind solar wind data stream measured at the L1 point through ACE. Additionally, the webpage also provide status of the current space weather condition as an additional resource, updating every ten minutes. Furthermore, the subscribers of our space weather alert system, called `spacalrt', have been receiving email notices based on predefined thresholds. One of the gaps that is currently seen in the Rice neural network models lies in the density dependent models using variants of the solar wind pressure. The anomalous behavior in reporting densities in ACE has been a common issue for some time now. Often such behavior is observed when the solar energetic particle that are associated with solar flares or CMEs are Earth directed. Therefore, it is understood that the subsequent measures of the density reported by ACE will be either very low or, at a minimum, contaminated. Under these circumstances, the density-based Rice models typically underpredict. However, the newly launched DSCOVR satellite will help enhance our prediction models with high-quality data; it has real time space weather data available through the NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center as of July, 2016. We are in the process of transitioning our forecast operations to include data from DSCOVR while running the original ACE data stream in parallel until it lasts. This paper will compare and contrast the forecasted values from the two satellites. Finally, we will discuss our efforts in providing the forecast products for the Rice space weather website that will be a part of the book on "Machine Learning Techniques for Space Weather" to be published by Elsiever.
Periodicities observed on solar flux index (F10.7) during geomagnetic disturbances
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Adhikari, B.; Narayan, C.; Chhatkuli, D. N.
2017-12-01
Solar activities change within the period of 11 years. Sometimes the greatest event occurs in the period of solar maxima and the lowest activity occurs in the period of solar minimum. During the time period of solar activity sunspots number will vary. A 10.7 cm solar flux measurement is a determination of the strength of solar radio emission. The solar flux index is more often used for the prediction and monitoring of the solar activity. This study mainly focused on the variation on solar flux index and amount of electromagnetic wave in the atmosphere. Both seasonal and yearly variation on solar F10.7 index. We also analyzed the dataset obatained from riometer.Both instruments show seasonal and yearly variations. We also observed the solar cycle dependence on solar flux index and found a strong dependence on solar activity. Results also show that solar intensities higher during the rising phase of solar cycle. We also observed periodicities on solar flux index using wavelet analysis. Through this analysis, it was found that the power intensities of solar flux index show a high spectral variability.
Studying the start of the Maunder Minimum to understand the current situation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Neuhäuser, Ralph; Neuhäuser, Dagmar L.
2016-04-01
To investigate whether we now enter a Maunder-like grand minimum, we have to compare the current situation with the time around the start of the Maunder minimum. Sunspot observations in the 1610s are of particular importance and relevance, because they are shortly before the start of the Maunder Grand Minimum. While the Maunder Minimum it is usually dated from 1645 to 1715, Vaquero & Trigo (2015) argue that what they call the "Extended Maunder Minimum" would have started in 1618 during or around a Schwabe cycle minimum around that time. We have therefore studied the sunspot record of that time in detail. Hoyt & Schatten (1998) compiled for all known telescopic observers a list of their observations; recent solar activity studies for the past four centuries are based on their compilation. In addition to 12 observers listed by Hoyt & Schatten (1998) for the 1610s, we list six more observers with datable spot observations. Furthermore, while Hoyt & Schatten (1998) argue that Simon Marius would have observed from mid 1617 to the end of 1618 almost every day, but would have never seen a spot, we can show with the original reports by Marius that he observed from Aug 1611 to spring 1619 with a lot of sunspot detections. Similar, while Hoyt & Schatten (1998) argue that Giovanni Riccioli would have observed on almost every day in 1618, but would have never seen a spot, he did not report any own observations at all that year, but quoted Argoli for that there were no spots during the periods with comets in 1618. The data base by Hoyt & Schatten (1998) has several more errors in the 1610s, as we show also for the observations by Harriot, Scheiner, Malapert, Saxonius, and Tarde. We also compare drawings from Jungius with the observations by Harriot, Galilei, and Marius. In contrast to what is specified in Hoyt & Schatten (1998), after Harriot, the two Fabricius (father and son), Scheiner and Cysat, Marius and Schmidnerus are among the earliest datable telescopic sunspot observers (1611 Aug 3, Julian). It is very important to go back to the original drawings and observational reports (written often in Latin or German). The active day fractions was high from 1611 to 1616 (1.0 to 0.9), but then dropped to much lower values 1617 to 1620. Sunspots records by Malapert from 1618 to 1621 show that the last low-latitude spot was seen in Dec 1620, while the first high-latitude spots were noticed in June and Oct 1620 (we show his drawings), so that the turnover from one Schwabe cycle to the next (minimum) took place around that time, also seen in longer periods without naked-eye and telescopic spots nor any likely true aurorae. Did the Maunder Minimum start with or right after this Schwabe cycle minimum in the second half of 1620 or one or two cycles later? We will then compare the start of the Maunder minimum with the current situation.
Solar wind electron densities from Viking dual-frequency radio measurements
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Muhleman, D. O.; Anderson, J. D.
1981-01-01
Simultaneous phase coherent, two-frequency measurements of the time delay between the earth station and the Viking spacecraft have been analyzed in terms of the electron density profiles from 4 solar radii to 200 solar radii. The measurements were made during a period of solar activity minimum (1976-1977) and show a strong solar latitude effect. The data were analyzed with both a model independent, direct numerical inversion technique and with model fitting, yielding essentially the same results. It is shown that the solar wind density can be represented by two power laws near the solar equator proportional to r exp -2.7 and r exp -2.04. However, the more rapidly falling term quickly disappears at moderate latitudes (approximately 20 deg) leaving only the inverse-square behavior.
Seven Years of Imaging the Global Heliosphere with IBEX
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
McComas, D. J.; Zirnstein, E. J.; Bzowski, M.
2017-04-01
The Interstellar Boundary Explorer ( IBEX ) has now operated in space for 7 years and returned nearly continuous observations that have led to scientific discoveries and reshaped our entire understanding of the outer heliosphere and its interaction with the local interstellar medium. Here we extend prior work, adding the 2014–2015 data for the first time, and examine, validate, initially analyze, and provide a complete 7-year set of Energetic Neutral Atom (ENA) observations from ∼0.1 to 6 keV. The data, maps, and documentation provided here represent the 10th major release of IBEX data and include improvements to various prior correctionsmore » to provide the citable reference for the current version of IBEX data. We are now able to study time variations in the outer heliosphere and interstellar interaction over more than half a solar cycle. We find that the Ribbon has evolved differently than the globally distributed flux (GDF), with a leveling off and partial recovery of ENAs from the GDF, owing to solar wind output flattening and recovery. The Ribbon has now also lost its latitudinal ordering, which reflects the breakdown of solar minimum solar wind conditions and exhibits a greater time delay than for the surrounding GDF. Together, the IBEX observations strongly support a secondary ENA source for the Ribbon, and we suggest that this be adopted as the nominal explanation of the Ribbon going forward.« less
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Sandford, S. A.; Mastrapa, R. M. E.; Bernstein, M. P.; Cruikshank, D. P.
2006-01-01
CO2 is present on the surface of many Solar System objects, but not always as a segregated, pure ice. In pure CO2-ice, the fundamental absorption is located near 4.268 micron (2343.3 wavenumbers). However, on several objects, the CO2 fundamental is shifted to higher frequency. This shift may be produced by CO2 gas trapped in another material, or adsorbed onto minerals. We have seen that a mixture of H2O, CH3OH4 and CO2 forms a type II clathrate when heated to 125 K and produces a CO2 fundamental near 4.26 micron. The exact location of the feature is strongly dependent on the initial ratio of the three components. We are currently exploring various starting ratios relevant to the Solar System to determine the minimum amount of CH3OH needed to convert all of the CO2 to the clathrate, i.e. eliminate the splitting of the CO2 fundamental. We are testing the stability of the clathrate to thermal processing and UV photolysis, and documenting the changes seen in the spectra in the wavelength range from 1-5 micron. We acknowledge financial support from the Origins of Solar Systems Program, the Planetary Geology and Geophysics and the NASA Postdoctoral Program.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ukhvatkina, Olga N.; Omelko, Alexander M.; Zhmerenetsky, Alexander A.; Petrenko, Tatyana Y.
2018-01-01
The aim of our research was to reconstruct climatic parameters (for the first time for the Sikhote-Alin mountain range) and to compare them with global climate fluctuations. As a result, we have found that one of the most important limiting factors for the study area is the minimum temperatures of the previous autumn-winter season (August-December), and this finding perfectly conforms to that in other territories. We reconstructed the previous August-December minimum temperature for 485 years, from 1529 to 2014. We found 12 cold periods (1535-1540, 1550-1555, 1643-1649, 1659-1667, 1675-1689, 1722-1735, 1791-1803, 1807-1818, 1822-1827, 1836-1852, 1868-1887, 1911-1925) and seven warm periods (1560-1585, 1600-1610, 1614-1618, 1738-1743, 1756-1759, 1776-1781, 1944-2014). These periods correlate well with reconstructed data for the Northern Hemisphere and the neighboring territories of China and Japan. Our reconstruction has 3-, 9-, 20-, and 200-year periods, which may be in line with high-frequency fluctuations in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the short-term solar cycle, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) fluctuations, and the 200-year solar activity cycle, respectively. We suppose that the temperature of the North Pacific, expressed by the PDO may make a major contribution to regional climate variations. We also assume that the regional climatic response to solar activity becomes apparent in the temperature changes in the northern part of Pacific Ocean and corresponds to cold periods during the solar minimum. These comparisons show that our climatic reconstruction based on tree ring chronology for this area may potentially provide a proxy record for long-term, large-scale past temperature patterns for northeastern Asia. The reconstruction reflects the global traits and local variations in the climatic processes of the southern territory of the Russian Far East for more than the past 450 years.
Fast correlation method for passive-solar design
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Wray, W.O.; Biehl, F.A.; Kosiewicz, C.E.
1982-01-01
A passive-solar design manual for single-family detached residences and dormitory-type buildings is being developed. The design procedure employed in the manual is a simplification of the original monthly solar load ratio (SLR) method. The new SLR correlations involve a single constant for each system. The correlation constant appears as a scale factor permitting the use of a universal performance curve for all passive systems. Furthermore, by providing location-dependent correlations between the annual solar heating fraction (SHF) and the minimum monthly SHF, we have eliminated the need to perform an SLR calculation for each month of the heating season.
A passive-solar design manual for the United States Navy
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wray, W. O.; Biehl, F. A.; Kosiewicz, C. E.; Miles, C. E.; Durlak, E. R.
1982-06-01
A passive solar design manual for single-family detached residences and dormitory-type buildings is developed. The design procedure employed in the manual is a simplification of the original monthly solar load ratio (SLR) method. The new SLR correlations involve a single constant for each system. The correlation constant appears as a scale factor permitting the use of a universal performance curve for all passive systems. Furthermore, by providing location-dependent correlations between the annual solar heating fraction (SHF) and the minimum monthly SHF, the need to perform an SLR calculation for each month of the heating season is eliminated.
Passive-solar design manual for the United States Navy
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Wray, W.O.; Biehl, F.A.; Kosiewicz, C.R.
1982-01-01
A passive solar design manual for single-family detached residences and dormitory-type buildings is being developed. The design procedure employed in the manual is a simplification of the original monthly solar load ratio (SLR) method. The new SLR correlations involve a single constant for each system. The correlation constant appears as a scale factor permitting the use of a universal performance curve for all passive systems. Furthermore, by providing location-dependent correlations between the annual solar heating fraction (SHF)* and the minimum monthly SHF, we have eliminated the need to perform an SLR calculation for each month of the heating season.
Solar cosmic ray hazard to interplanetary and earth-orbital space travel
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Yucker, W. R.
1972-01-01
A statistical treatment of the radiation hazards to astronauts due to solar cosmic ray protons is reported to determine shielding requirements for solar proton events. More recent data are incorporated into the present analysis in order to improve the accuracy of the predicted mission fluence and dose. The effects of the finite data sample are discussed. Mission fluence and dose versus shield thickness data are presented for mission lengths up to 3 years during periods of maximum and minimum solar activity; these correspond to various levels of confidence that the predicted hazard will not be exceeded.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Winter, L. M.; Balasubramaniam, K. S., E-mail: lwinter@aer.com
We present an alternate method of determining the progression of the solar cycle through an analysis of the solar X-ray background. Our results are based on the NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) X-ray data in the 1-8 Å band from 1986 to the present, covering solar cycles 22, 23, and 24. The X-ray background level tracks the progression of the solar cycle through its maximum and minimum. Using the X-ray data, we can therefore make estimates of the solar cycle progression and the date of solar maximum. Based upon our analysis, we conclude that the Sun reached its hemisphere-averagedmore » maximum in solar cycle 24 in late 2013. This is within six months of the NOAA prediction of a maximum in spring 2013.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Minasyants, Gennady; Minasyants, Tamara; Tomozov, Vladimir
2018-03-01
We report the results of the investigation into plasma physical characteristics at various solar activity manifestations and in periods of their absence. These results have been obtained from quantitative estimates of the relative abundance of Fe/O ions in different energy ranges. Maximum values of the Fe/O ratio is shown to correspond to particle fluxes from impulsive flares for ions with energies <2 MeV/n (the most significant manifestation of the FIP effect). In particle fluxes from gradual flares, the Fe/O value decreases smoothly with ion energy and is noticeably inferior to values of fluxes in impulsive events. We have established that the properties of flares of solar cosmic rays indicate their belonging to a separate subclass in the total population of gradual events. Relying on variations in the abundance of Fe/O ions, we propose an explanation of the solar plasma behavior during the development of flares of both classes. Magnetic clouds (a separate type of coronal mass ejections (CME)), which have regions of turbulent compression and are sources of strong geomagnetic storms, exhibit a relative composition of Fe ions comparable to the abundance of Fe in ion fluxes from gradual flares. We have found out that the Fe/O value can be used to detect penetration of energetic flare plasma into the CME body at the initial phase of their joint development and to estimate its relative contribution. During solar minimum with the complete absence of sunspots, the Fe/O ratio during periods of "quiet" solar wind show absolutely low values of Fe/O=0.004-0.010 in the energy range from 2-5 to 30 MeV/n. This is associated with the manifestation of the cosmic ray anomalous component, which causes an increase in the intensity of ion fluxes with a high first ionization potential, including oxygen (O), and elements with a low first ionization potential (Fe) demonstrate the weakening of the fluxes. As for particles with higher energies (Ek>30 MeV/n), the Fe/O increase is due to the decisive influence of galactic cosmic rays on the composition of impurity elements in the solar wind under solar minimum conditions. The relative content of heavy elements in galactic cosmic rays 30-500 MeV/n is similar to values in fluxes from gradual flares during high solar activity. During solar minimum without sunspots, the behavior of Fe/O for different ion energy ranges in plasma flows from coronal holes (CH) and in the solar wind exhibits only minor deviations. At the same time, plasma flows associated with the disturbed frontal CH region can be sources of moderate geomagnetic storms.
An equatorial coronal hole at solar minimum
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bromage, B. J. I.; DelZanna, G.; DeForest, C.; Thompson, B.; Clegg, J. R.
1997-01-01
The large transequatorial coronal hole that was observed in the solar corona at the end of August 1996 is presented. It consists of a north polar coronal hole called the 'elephant's trunk or tusk'. The observations of this coronal hole were carried out with the coronal diagnostic spectrometer onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). The magnetic field associated with the equatorial coronal hole is strongly connected to that of the active region at its base, resulting in the two features rotating at almost the same rate.
Ion-neutral Coupling During Deep Solar Minimum
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Huang, Cheryl Y.; Roddy, Patrick A.; Sutton, Eric K.; Stoneback, Russell; Pfaff, Robert F.; Gentile, Louise C.; Delay, Susan H.
2013-01-01
The equatorial ionosphere under conditions of deep solar minimum exhibits structuring due to tidal forces. Data from instruments carried by the Communication Navigation Outage Forecasting System (CNOFS) which was launched in April 2008 have been analyzed for the first 2 years following launch. The Planar Langmuir Probe (PLP), Ion Velocity Meter (IVM) and Vector Electric Field Investigation (VEFI) all detect periodic structures during the 20082010 period which appear to be tides. However when the tidal features detected by these instruments are compared, there are distinctive and significant differences between the observations. Tides in neutral densities measured by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite were also observed during June 2008. In addition, Broad Plasma Decreases (BPDs) appear as a deep absolute minimum in the plasma and neutral density tidal pattern. These are co-located with regions of large downward-directed ion meridional velocities and minima in the zonal drifts, all on the nightside. The region in which BPDs occur coincides with a peak in occurrence rate of dawn depletions in plasma density observed on the Defense Meterological Satellite Program (DMSP) spacecraft, as well as a minimum in radiance detected by UV imagers on the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) and IMAGE satellites
Solar Surface Velocity in the Large Scale estimated by Magnetic Element Tracking Method
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fujiyama, M.; Imada, S.; Iijima, H.; Machida, S.
2017-12-01
The 11years variation in the solar activity is one of the important sources of decadal variation in the solar-terrestrial environment. Therefore, predicting the solar cycle activity is crucial for the space weather. To build the prediction schemes for the next solar cycle is a key for the long-term space weather study. Recently, the relationship between polar magnetic field at the solar minimum and next solar cycle activity is intensively discussed. Nowadays, many people believe that the polar magnetic field at the solar minimum is one of the best predictor for the next solar cycle. To estimate polar magnetic field, Surface Flux Transport (SFT) model have been often used. On the other hand, SFT model needs several parameters, for example Meridional circulation, differential rotation, turbulent diffusion etc.. So far, those parameters have not been fully understood, and their uncertainties may affect the accuracy of the prediction. In this study, we try to discuss the parameters which are used in SFT model. We focus on two kinds of the solar surface motions, Differential rotation and Meridional circulation. First, we have developed Magnetic Element Tracking (MET) module, which is able to obtain the surface velocity by using the magnetic field data. We have used SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI for the magnetic field data. By using MET, we study the solar surface motion over 2 cycle (nearly 24 years), and we found that the velocity variation is related to the active region belt. This result is consistent with [Hathaway et al., 2011]. Further, we apply our module to the Hinode/SOT data which spatial resolution is high. Because of its high resolution, we can discuss the surface motion close to the pole which has not been discussed enough. Further, we discuss the relationship between the surface motion and the magnetic field strength and the location of longitude.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hoyt, Douglas V.; Schatten, Kenneth H.; Nesmes-Ribes, Elizabeth
1994-01-01
In the one hundred years since Wolf died, little effort has gone into research to see if improved reconstructions of sunspot numbers can be made. We have gathered more than 349,000 observations of daily sunspot group counts from more than 350 observers active from 1610 to 1993. Based upon group counts alone, it is possible to make an objective and homogeneous reconstruction of sunspot numbers. From our study, it appears that the Sun has steadily increased in activity since 1700 with the exception of a brief decrease in the Dalton Minimum (1795-1823). The significant results here are the greater depth of the Dalton Minimum, the generally lower activity throughout the 1700's, and the gradual rise in activity from the Maunder Minimum to the present day. This solar activity reconstruction is quite similar to those Wolf published before 1868 rather than the revised Wolf reconstructions after 1873 which used geomagnetic fluctuations.
Large amplitude MHD waves upstream of the Jovian bow shock
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Goldstein, M. L.; Smith, C. W.; Matthaeus, W. H.
1983-01-01
Observations of large amplitude magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) waves upstream of Jupiter's bow shock are analyzed. The waves are found to be right circularly polarized in the solar wind frame which suggests that they are propagating in the fast magnetosonic mode. A complete spectral and minimum variance eigenvalue analysis of the data was performed. The power spectrum of the magnetic fluctuations contains several peaks. The fluctuations at 2.3 mHz have a direction of minimum variance along the direction of the average magnetic field. The direction of minimum variance of these fluctuations lies at approximately 40 deg. to the magnetic field and is parallel to the radial direction. We argue that these fluctuations are waves excited by protons reflected off the Jovian bow shock. The inferred speed of the reflected protons is about two times the solar wind speed in the plasma rest frame. A linear instability analysis is presented which suggests an explanation for many of the observed features of the observations.
Passive dosimetry aboard the Mir Orbital Station: internal measurements.
Benton, E R; Benton, E V; Frank, A L
2002-10-01
Passive radiation dosimeters were exposed aboard the Mir Orbital Station over a substantial portion of the solar cycle in order to measure the change in dose and dose equivalent rates as a function of time. During solar minimum, simultaneous measurements of the radiation environment throughout the habitable volume of the Mir were made using passive dosimeters in order to investigate the effect of localized shielding on dose and dose equivalent. The passive dosimeters consisted of a combination of thermoluminescent detectors to measure absorbed dose and CR-39 PNTDs to measure the linear energy transfer (LET) spectrum from charged particles of LET infinity H2O > or = 5 keV/micrometers. Results from the two detector types were then combined to yield mean total dose rate, mean dose equivalent rate, and average quality factor. Contrary to expectations, both dose and dose equivalent rates measured during May-October 1991 near solar maximum were higher than similar measurements carried out in 1996-1997 during solar minimum. The elevated dose and dose equivalent rates measured in 1991 were probably due to a combination of intense solar activity, including a large solar particle event on 9 June 1991, and the temporary trapped radiation belt created in the slot region by the solar particle event and ensuing magnetic storm of 24 March 1991. During solar minimum, mean dose and dose equivalent rates were found to vary by factors of 1.55 and 1.37, respectively, between different locations through the interior of Mir. More heavily shielded locations tended to yield lower total dose and dose equivalent rates, but higher average quality factor than did more lightly shielding locations. However, other factors such as changes in the immediate shielding environment surrounding a given detector location, changes in the orientation of the Mir relative to its velocity vector, and changes in the altitude of the station also contributed to the variation. Proton and neutron-induced target fragment secondaries, not primary galactic cosmic rays, were found to dominate the LET spectrum above 100 keV/micrometers. This indicates that in low earth orbit, trapped protons in the South Atlantic Anomaly are responsible for the major fraction of the total dose equivalent. c2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
The northern annular mode in summer and its relation to solar activity variations in the GISS ModelE
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lee, Jae N.; Hameed, Sultan; Shindell, Drew T.
2008-03-01
The northern annular mode (NAM) has been successfully used in several studies to understand the variability of the winter atmosphere and its modulation by solar activity. The variability of summer circulation can also be described by the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of geopotential heights. We compare the annular modes of the summer geopotential heights in the northern hemisphere stratosphere and troposphere in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE with those in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. In the stratosphere, the summer NAM obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as well as from the ModelE simulations has the same sign throughout the northern hemisphere, but shows greater variability at low latitudes. The patterns in both analyses are consistent with the interpretation that low NAM conditions represent an enhancement of the seasonal difference between the summer and the annual averages of geopotential height, temperature and velocity distributions, while the reverse holds for high NAM conditions. Composite analysis of high and low NAM cases in both model and observation suggests that the summer stratosphere is more "summer-like" when the solar activity is near a maximum. This means that the zonal easterly wind flow is stronger and the temperature is higher than normal. Thus increased irradiance favors a low summer NAM. A quantitative comparison of the anti-correlation between the NAM and the solar forcing is presented in the model and in the observation, both of which show lower/higher NAM index in solar maximum/minimum conditions. The temperature fluctuations in simulated solar minimum conditions are greater than in solar maximum throughout the summer stratosphere. The summer NAM in the troposphere obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has a dipolar zonal structure with maximum variability over the Asian monsoon region. The corresponding EOF in ModelE has a qualitatively similar structure but with less variability in the Asian monsoon region which is displaced eastward of its observed position. In both the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the GCM the negative anomalies associated with the NAM in the Euro-Atlantic and Aleutian island regions are enhanced in the solar minimum conditions, though the results are not statistically significant.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Deming, D.; Espenak, F.; Jennings, D. E.; Brault, J. W.
1986-01-01
The threshold mass for the unambiguous spectroscopic detection of low mass companions to solar type stars is defined here as the time when the maximum acceleration in the stellar radial velocity due to the Doppler reflex of the companion exceeds the apparent acceleration produced by changes in convection. An apparent acceleration of 11 m/s/yr in integrated sunlight was measured using near infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy. This drift in the apparent solar velocity is attributed to a lessening in the magnetic inhibition of granular convection as solar minimum approaches. The threshold mass for spectroscopic detection of companions to a one solar mass star is estimated at below one Jupiter mass.
THE MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 23: AS DEEP AS IT COULD BE?
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés; Longcope, Dana W.; Senkpeil, Ryan R.
2015-05-01
In this work we introduce a new way of binning sunspot group data with the purpose of better understanding the impact of the solar cycle on sunspot properties and how this defined the characteristics of the extended minimum of cycle 23. Our approach assumes that the statistical properties of sunspots are completely determined by the strength of the underlying large-scale field and have no additional time dependencies. We use the amplitude of the cycle at any given moment (something we refer to as activity level) as a proxy for the strength of this deep-seated magnetic field. We find that themore » sunspot size distribution is composed of two populations: one population of groups and active regions and a second population of pores and ephemeral regions. When fits are performed at periods of different activity level, only the statistical properties of the former population, the active regions, are found to vary. Finally, we study the relative contribution of each component (small-scale versus large-scale) to solar magnetism. We find that when hemispheres are treated separately, almost every one of the past 12 solar minima reaches a point where the main contribution to magnetism comes from the small-scale component. However, due to asymmetries in cycle phase, this state is very rarely reached by both hemispheres at the same time. From this we infer that even though each hemisphere did reach the magnetic baseline, from a heliospheric point of view the minimum of cycle 23 was not as deep as it could have been.« less
Kinetic Simulations of Current-Sheet Formation and Reconnection at a Magnetic X Line
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Black, C.; Antiochos, S. K.; Hesse, M.; Karpen, J. T.; DeVore, C. R.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Zenitani, S.
2011-01-01
The integration of kinetic effects into macroscopic numerical models is currently of great interest to the plasma physics community, particularly in the context of magnetic reconnection. We are examining the formation and reconnection of current sheets in a simple, two-dimensional X-line configuration using high resolution particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations. The initial potential magnetic field is perturbed by thermal pressure introduced into the particle distribution far from the X line. The relaxation of this added stress leads to the development of a current sheet, which reconnects for imposed stress of sufficient strength. We compare the evolution and final state of our PIC simulations with magnetohydrodynamic simulations assuming both uniform and localized resistivities, and with force-free magnetic-field equilibria in which the amount of reconnect ion across the X line can be constrained to be zero (ideal evolution) or optimal (minimum final magnetic energy). We will discuss implications of our results for reconnection onset and cessation at kinetic scales in dynamically formed current sheets, such as those occurring in the terrestrial magnetotail and solar corona.
Influence of System Operation Method on CO2 Emissions of PV/Solar Heat/Cogeneration System
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Oke, Shinichiro; Kemmoku, Yoshishige; Takikawa, Hirofumi; Sakakibara, Tateki
A PV/solar heat/cogeneration system is assumed to be installed in a hotel. The system is operated with various operation methods: CO2 minimum operation, fees minimum operation, seasonal operation, daytime operation and heat demand following operation. Of these five operations, the former two are virtual operations that are operated with the dynamic programming method, and the latter three are actual operations. Computer simulation is implemented using hourly data of solar radiation intensity, atmospheric temperature, electric, cooling, heating and hot water supply demands for one year, and the life-cycle CO2 emission and the total cost are calculated for every operations. The calculation results show that the virtual two and the actual three operations reduce the life-cycle CO2 emission by 21% and 13% compared with the conventional system, respectively. In regard to both the CO2 emission and the cost, there is no significant difference between the virtual two operation methods or among actual three operation methods.
SphinX Measurements of the 2009 Solar Minimum X-Ray Emission
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sylwester, J.; Kowalinski, M.; Gburek, S.; Siarkowski, M.; Kuzin, S.; Farnik, F.; Reale, F.; Phillips, K. J. H.; Bakała, J.; Gryciuk, M.; Podgorski, P.; Sylwester, B.
2012-06-01
The SphinX X-ray spectrophotometer on the CORONAS-PHOTON spacecraft measured soft X-ray emission in the 1-15 keV energy range during the deep solar minimum of 2009 with a sensitivity much greater than GOES. Several intervals are identified when the X-ray flux was exceptionally low, and the flux and solar X-ray luminosity are estimated. Spectral fits to the emission at these times give temperatures of 1.7-1.9 MK and emission measures between 4 × 1047 cm-3 and 1.1 × 1048 cm-3. Comparing SphinX emission with that from the Hinode X-ray Telescope, we deduce that most of the emission is from general coronal structures rather than confined features like bright points. For one of 27 intervals of exceptionally low activity identified in the SphinX data, the Sun's X-ray luminosity in an energy range roughly extrapolated to that of ROSAT (0.1-2.4 keV) was less than most nearby K and M dwarfs.
Siphon flows in isolated magnetic flux tubes. V - Radiative flows with variable ionization
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Montesinos, Benjamin; Thomas, John H.
1993-01-01
Steady siphon flows in arched isolated magnetic flux tubes in the solar atmosphere are calculated here including radiative transfer between the flux tube and its surrounding and variable ionization of the flowing gas. It is shown that the behavior of a siphon flow is strongly determined by the degree of radiative coupling between the flux tube and its surroundings in the superadiabatic layer just below the solar surface. Critical siphon flows with adiabatic tube shocks in the downstream leg are calculated, illustrating the radiative relaxation of the temperature jump downstream of the shock. For flows in arched flux tubes reaching up to the temperature minimum, where the opacity is low, the gas inside the flux tube is much cooler than the surrounding atmosphere at the top of the arch. It is suggested that gas cooled by siphon flows contribute to the cool component of the solar atmosphere at the height of the temperature minimum implied by observations of the infrared CO bands at 4.6 and 2.3 microns.
Comparative evaluation of distributed-collector solar thermal electric power plants
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Fujita, T.; El Gabalawi, N.; Herrera, G. G.; Caputo, R. S.
1978-01-01
Distributed-collector solar thermal-electric power plants are compared by projecting power plant economics of selected systems to the 1990-2000 timeframe. The approach taken is to evaluate the performance of the selected systems under the same weather conditions. Capital and operational costs are estimated for each system. Energy costs are calculated for different plant sizes based on the plant performance and the corresponding capital and maintenance costs. Optimum systems are then determined as the systems with the minimum energy costs for a given load factor. The optimum system is comprised of the best combination of subsystems which give the minimum energy cost for every plant size. Sensitivity analysis is done around the optimum point for various plant parameters.
A cellular glass substrate solar concentrator
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bedard, R.; Bell, D.
1980-01-01
The design of a second generation point focusing solar concentration is discussed. The design is based on reflective gores fabricated of thin glass mirror bonded continuously to a contoured substrate of cellular glass. The concentrator aperture and structural stiffness was optimized for minimum concentrator cost given the performance requirement of delivering 56 kWth to a 22 cm diameter receiver aperture with a direct normal insolation of 845 watts sq m and an operating wind of 50 kmph. The reflective panel, support structure, drives, foundation and instrumentation and control subsystem designs, optimized for minimum cost, are summarized. The use of cellular glass as a reflective panel substrate material is shown to offer significant weight and cost advantages compared to existing technology materials.
Magnetically Sleepy Stars: An X-ray Survey of Candidate Stars in Extended Magnetic Minima
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Saar, Steven
2010-09-01
The Sun occasionally slips into periods of extended magnetic quiescence where the normal magnetic cycle largely ceases (e.g., the Maunder minimum). Understanding these episodes is important for understanding non-linear magnetic dynamos and the Earth's radiation budget. We have developed a new method for determining which stars may be in the stellar analog of these magnetic minima. We propose to study five such stars with Chandra ACIS-S. Combined with archival spectra of more stars, we can 1) explore (by proxy) properties of the solar corona in a Maunder-like minimum, 2) determine what stellar properties affect this state, and 3) investigate the coronal product of the residual turbulent dynamo in a solar mass star.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Yeeram, T.; Ruffolo, D.; Sáiz, A.
Data from the Princess Sirindhorn Neutron Monitor at Doi Inthanon, Thailand, with a vertical cutoff rigidity of 16.8 GV, were utilized to determine the diurnal anisotropy (DA) of Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) near Earth during solar minimum conditions between 2007 November and 2010 November. We identified trains of enhanced DA over several days, which often recur after a solar rotation period (∼27 days). By investigating solar coronal holes as identified from synoptic maps and solar wind parameters, we found that the intensity and anisotropy of cosmic rays are associated with the high-speed streams (HSSs) in the solar wind, which aremore » in turn related to the structure and evolution of coronal holes. An enhanced DA was observed after the onset of some, but not all, HSSs. During time periods of recurrent trains, the DA was often enhanced or suppressed according to the sign of the interplanetary magnetic field B, which suggests a contribution from a mechanism involving a southward gradient in the GCR density, n, and a gradient anisotropy along B × ∇n. In one non-recurrent and one recurrent sequence, an HSS from an equatorial coronal hole was merged with that from a trailing mid-latitude extension of a polar coronal hole, and the slanted HSS structure in space with suppressed GCR density can account for the southward GCR gradient. We conclude that the gradient anisotropy is a source of temporary changes in the GCR DA under solar minimum conditions, and that the latitudinal GCR gradient can sometimes be explained by the coronal hole morphology.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dashora, N.; Suresh, Sunanda
2015-06-01
The characteristics of quiet time equatorial and low-latitude total electron content over the Indian sector using global ionospheric map (GIM) data (1998-2014) are obtained filtering out the solar flare and storm effects. The results are examined and interpreted in the context of large number of previous studies. The newly found features from this study are as follows. Marked difference in nature of equinoctial asymmetry is noted between solar cycles 23 and 24. Long absence of winter anomaly both during low and high solar activity (HSA) in LL (low-latitude) regions is found. Climatology of the diurnal cycle is provided in four categories using new criteria for demarcation of solar activity levels. Highest correlation (~77%) between GIM ionospheric electron content (IEC) and PI (solar EUV proxy index) is noted over equator in contrast to previous studies. The minimum positive contribution of PI in variation of IEC requires minimum of 2 years of data, and if more than 7-8 years of data are used, it saturates. Root-mean-square width of PI can be used to define the HSA. Strong QBO (quasi-biennial oscillations) in IEC is noted in tune with the one in PI over both LL locations but QBO remains surprisingly subdued over equator. The semiannual oscillations in GIM-IEC are found to be stronger at all locations during high solar activity and weaker between 2005 and 2011, whereas the annual oscillations are found to be substantially stronger only during HSA-23 and weakest over southern LL location throughout 17 years.
THE EFFECT OF A DYNAMIC INNER HELIOSHEATH THICKNESS ON COSMIC-RAY MODULATION
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Manuel, R.; Ferreira, S. E. S.; Potgieter, M. S., E-mail: rexmanuel@live.com
2015-02-01
The time-dependent modulation of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere is studied over different polarity cycles by computing 2.5 GV proton intensities using a two-dimensional, time-dependent modulation model. By incorporating recent theoretical advances in the relevant transport parameters in the model, we showed in previous work that this approach gave realistic computed intensities over a solar cycle. New in this work is that a time dependence of the solar wind termination shock (TS) position is implemented in our model to study the effect of a dynamic inner heliosheath thickness (the region between the TS and heliopause) on the solar modulationmore » of galactic cosmic rays. The study reveals that changes in the inner heliosheath thickness, arising from a time-dependent shock position, does affect cosmic-ray intensities everywhere in the heliosphere over a solar cycle, with the smallest effect in the innermost heliosphere. A time-dependent TS position causes a phase difference between the solar activity periods and the corresponding intensity periods. The maximum intensities in response to a solar minimum activity period are found to be dependent on the time-dependent TS profile. It is found that changing the width of the inner heliosheath with time over a solar cycle can shift the time of when the maximum or minimum cosmic-ray intensities occur at various distances throughout the heliosphere, but more significantly in the outer heliosphere. The time-dependent extent of the inner heliosheath, as affected by solar activity conditions, is thus an additional time-dependent factor to be considered in the long-term modulation of cosmic rays.« less
Evidence for distinct modes of solar activity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Usoskin, I. G.; Hulot, G.; Gallet, Y.; Roth, R.; Licht, A.; Joos, F.; Kovaltsov, G. A.; Thébault, E.; Khokhlov, A.
2014-02-01
Aims: The Sun shows strong variability in its magnetic activity, from Grand minima to Grand maxima, but the nature of the variability is not fully understood, mostly because of the insufficient length of the directly observed solar activity records and of uncertainties related to long-term reconstructions. Here we present a new adjustment-free reconstruction of solar activity over three millennia and study its different modes. Methods: We present a new adjustment-free, physical reconstruction of solar activity over the past three millennia, using the latest verified carbon cycle, 14C production, and archeomagnetic field models. This great improvement allowed us to study different modes of solar activity at an unprecedented level of details. Results: The distribution of solar activity is clearly bi-modal, implying the existence of distinct modes of activity. The main regular activity mode corresponds to moderate activity that varies in a relatively narrow band between sunspot numbers 20 and 67. The existence of a separate Grand minimum mode with reduced solar activity, which cannot be explained by random fluctuations of the regular mode, is confirmed at a high confidence level. The possible existence of a separate Grand maximum mode is also suggested, but the statistics is too low to reach a confident conclusion. Conclusions: The Sun is shown to operate in distinct modes - a main general mode, a Grand minimum mode corresponding to an inactive Sun, and a possible Grand maximum mode corresponding to an unusually active Sun. These results provide important constraints for both dynamo models of Sun-like stars and investigations of possible solar influence on Earth's climate. Data are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/562/L10
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wilson, Thomas L.; Lodhi, M. A. K.; Diaz, Abel B.
2005-01-01
No simple algorithm seems to exist for calculating proton fluxes and lifetimes in the Earth's inner, trapped radiation belt throughout the solar cycle. Most models of the inner trapped belt in use depend upon AP8 which only describes the radiation environment at solar maximum and solar minimum in Cycle 20. One exception is NOAAPRO which incorporates flight data from the TIROS/NOAA polar orbiting spacecraft. The present study discloses yet another, simple formulation for approximating proton fluxes at any time in a given solar cycle, in particular between solar maximum and solar minimum. It is derived from AP8 using a regression algorithm technique from nuclear physics. From flux and its time integral fluence, one can then approximate dose rate and its time integral dose. It has already been published in this journal that the absorbed dose rate, D, in the trapped belts exhibits a power law relationship, D = A(rho)(sup -n), where A is a constant, rho is the atmospheric density, and the index n is weakly dependent upon shielding. However, that method does not work for flux and fluence. Instead, we extend this idea by showing that the power law approximation for flux J is actually bivariant in energy E as well as density rho. The resulting relation is J(E,rho)approx.(sum of)A(E(sup n))rho(sup -n), with A itself a power law in E. This provides another method for calculating approximate proton flux and lifetime at any time in the solar cycle. These in turn can be used to predict the associated dose and dose rate.
The sunspots and the auroral displays of the Maunder Minimum
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rek, Radosław
2016-06-01
The period in years 1645-1715 (or 1717 what can be concluded from an earlier text by tet{Maunder1894} stays in opinion of a part of scientists as an example of very low level of solar activity in the past. A new findings of archival reports appear to confirm that the level of solar activity was in fact higher.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Goldberg, R. A.; Jackman, C. H.; Backer, D. N.; Herrero, F. A.
1994-01-01
Highly relativistic electron precipitation events (HRE's) can provide a major source of energy affecting mesospheric constituents and ionization. Based on satellite data, these events are most pronounced near the minimum of the solar sunspot cycle, increasing in intensity, spectral hardness, and frequency of occurrence as the solar cycle declines. Since such events can be sustained up to several days, their integrated effect in the mesosphere can dominate over those of other energy sources such as relativistic electron precipitation events (REP's) and auroral precipitation. The energy deposition data to be discussed and analyzed were obtained by rocket at Poker Flat, Alaska, in May 1990 during a modest HRE observed at midday near the peak of the sunspot cycle. Using a NASA two dimensional model, significant enhancement of OH and depletion of O3 at 75 +/- 10 km altitude from the measured radiation are found. Estimates of enhanced effects were made for more intense HRE events, as might be expected during solar minimum. By causing O3 depletion, the electron precipitation can also regulate the penetration of solar UV radiation, which could affect the thermal properties of the mesosphere.
Sizing procedures for sun-tracking PV system with batteries
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nezih Gerek, Ömer; Başaran Filik, Ümmühan; Filik, Tansu
2017-11-01
Deciding optimum number of PV panels, wind turbines and batteries (i.e. a complete renewable energy system) for minimum cost and complete energy balance is a challenging and interesting problem. In the literature, some rough data models or limited recorded data together with low resolution hourly averaged meteorological values are used to test the sizing strategies. In this study, active sun tracking and fixed PV solar power generation values of ready-to-serve commercial products are recorded throughout 2015-2016. Simultaneously several outdoor parameters (solar radiation, temperature, humidity, wind speed/direction, pressure) are recorded with high resolution. The hourly energy consumption values of a standard 4-person household, which is constructed in our campus in Eskisehir, Turkey, are also recorded for the same period. During sizing, novel parametric random process models for wind speed, temperature, solar radiation, energy demand and electricity generation curves are achieved and it is observed that these models provide sizing results with lower LLP through Monte Carlo experiments that consider average and minimum performance cases. Furthermore, another novel cost optimization strategy is adopted to show that solar tracking PV panels provide lower costs by enabling reduced number of installed batteries. Results are verified over real recorded data.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, L.; Dong, Y.; Bao, G.; Ni, W.-T.; Shaul, D. N. A.
2010-01-01
As ASTROD I travels through space, its test mass will accrue charge due to exposure of the spacecraft to high-energy particles. This test mass charge will result in Coulomb forces between the test mass and the surrounding electrodes. In earlier work, we have used the GEANT 4 toolkit to simulate charging of the ASTROD test mass due to cosmic-ray protons of energies between 0.1 and 1000 GeV at solar maximum and at solar minimum. Here we use GEANT 4 to simulate the charging process due to solar energetic particle events and interplanetary electrons. We then estimate the test mass acceleration noise due to these fluxes. The predicted charging rates range from 2247 e+/s to 47,055 e+/s, at peak intensity, for the four largest SEP events in September and October 1989. Although the noise due to charging exceeds the ASTROD I budget for the two larger events, it can be suppressed through continuous discharging. The acceleration noise during the two small events is well below the design target. The charging rate of the ASTROD I test mass due to interplanetary electrons in this simulation is about -11% of the cosmic-ray protons at solar minimum, and over -37% at solar maximum. In addition to the Monte Carlo uncertainty, an error of ±30% in the net charging rates should be added to account for uncertainties in the spectra, physics models and geometry implementations.
Diagnosis of Middle Atmosphere Climate Sensitivity by the Climate Feedback Response Analysis Method
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zhu, Xun; Yee, Jeng-Hwa; Cai, Ming; Swartz, William H.; Coy, Lawrence; Aquila, Valentina; Talaat, Elsayed R.
2014-01-01
We present a new method to diagnose the middle atmosphere climate sensitivity by extending the Climate Feedback-Response Analysis Method (CFRAM) for the coupled atmosphere-surface system to the middle atmosphere. The Middle atmosphere CFRAM (MCFRAM) is built on the atmospheric energy equation per unit mass with radiative heating and cooling rates as its major thermal energy sources. MCFRAM preserves the CFRAM unique feature of an additive property for which the sum of all partial temperature changes due to variations in external forcing and feedback processes equals the observed temperature change. In addition, MCFRAM establishes a physical relationship of radiative damping between the energy perturbations associated with various feedback processes and temperature perturbations associated with thermal responses. MCFRAM is applied to both measurements and model output fields to diagnose the middle atmosphere climate sensitivity. It is found that the largest component of the middle atmosphere temperature response to the 11-year solar cycle (solar maximum vs. solar minimum) is directly from the partial temperature change due to the variation of the input solar flux. Increasing CO2 always cools the middle atmosphere with time whereas partial temperature change due to O3 variation could be either positive or negative. The partial temperature changes due to different feedbacks show distinctly different spatial patterns. The thermally driven globally averaged partial temperature change due to all radiative processes is approximately equal to the observed temperature change, ranging from 0.5 K near 70 km from the near solar maximum to the solar minimum.
Forecasting the peak of the present solar activity cycle 24
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hamid, R. H.; Marzouk, B. A.
2018-06-01
Solar forecasting of the level of sun Activity is very important subject for all space programs. Most predictions are based on the physical conditions prevailing at or before the solar cycle minimum preceding the maximum in question. Our aim is to predict the maximum peak of cycle 24 using precursor techniques in particular those using spotless event, geomagnetic aamin. index and solar flux F10.7. Also prediction of exact date of the maximum (Tr) is taken in consideration. A study of variation over previous spotless event for cycles 7-23 and that for even cycles (8-22) are carried out for the prediction. Linear correlation between maximum of solar cycles (RM) and spotless event around the preceding minimum gives R24t = 88.4 with rise time Tr = 4.6 years. For the even cycles R24E = 77.9 with rise time Tr = 4.5 y's. Based on the average aamin. index for cycles (12-23), we estimate the expected amplitude for cycle 24 to be Raamin = 99.4 and 98.1 with time rise of Traamin = 4.04 & 4.3 years for both the total and even cycles in consecutive. The application of the data of solar flux F10.7 which cover only cycles (19-23) was taken in consideration and gives predicted maximum amplitude R24 10.7 = 126 with rise time Tr107 = 3.7 years, which are over estimation. Our result indicating to somewhat weaker of cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21-23.
Requirements for high-efficiency solar cells
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Sah, C. T.
1986-01-01
Minimum recombination and low injection level are essential for high efficiency. Twenty percent AM1 efficiency requires a dark recombination current density of 2 x 10 to the minus 13th power A/sq cm and a recombination center density of less than 10 to the 10th power /cu cm. Recombination mechanisms at thirteen locations in a conventional single crystalline silicon cell design are reviewed. Three additional recombination locations are described at grain boundaries in polycrystalline cells. Material perfection and fabrication process optimization requirements for high efficiency are outlined. Innovative device designs to reduce recombination in the bulk and interfaces of single crystalline cells and in the grain boundary of polycrystalline cells are reviewed.
A new solar reference spectrum from 165 to 3088 nm
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Damé, Luc; Meftah, Mustapha; Bolsée, David; Pereira, Nuno; Bekki, Slimane; Hauchecorne, Alain; Irbah, Abdenour; Cessateur, Gaël; Sluse, Dominique
2017-04-01
Since April 5, 2008 and until February 15, 2017 the SOLAR/SOLSPEC spectro-radiometer on the International Space Station performed accurate measurements of Solar Spectral Irradiance (SSI) from the far ultraviolet to the infrared (165 nm to 3088 nm). These measurements are of primary importance for a better understanding of solar physics and of the impact of solar variability on climate (via Earth's atmospheric photochemistry). In particular, a new reference solar spectrum is established covering most of the unusual solar cycle 24 from minimum in 2008 to maximum. Temporal variability in the UV (165 to 400 nm) is presented in several wavelengths bands. These results are possible thanks to revised engineering corrections, improved calibrations and new procedures to account for thermal and aging advanced corrections. Uncertainties on these measurements are evaluated and compare favorably with other instruments.
Deep space telecommunications and the solar cycle: A reappraisal
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Berman, A. L.
1978-01-01
Observations of density enhancement in the near corona at solar cycle (sunspot) maximum have rather uncritically been interpreted to apply equally well to the extended corona, thus generating concern about the quality of outer planet navigational data at solar cycle maximum. Spacecraft have been deployed almost continuously during the recently completed solar cycle 20, providing two powerful new coronal investigatory data sources: (1) in-situ spacecraft plasma measurements at approximately 1 AU, and (2) plasma effects on monochromatic spacecraft signals at all signal closest approach points. A comprehensive review of these (solar cycle 20) data lead to the somewhat surprising conclusions that for the region of interest of navigational data, the highest levels of charged particle corruption of navigational data can be expected to occur at solar cycle minimum, rather than solar cycle maximum, as previously believed.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Richardson, I. G.; Cane, H. V.
2004-01-01
"Magnetic clouds" (MCs) are a subset of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) characterized by enhanced magnetic fields with an organized rotation in direction, and low plasma beta. Though intensely studied, MCs only constitute a fraction of all the ICMEs that are detected in the solar wind. A comprehensive survey of ICMEs in the near- Earth solar wind during the ascending, maximum and early declining phases of solar cycle 23 in 1996 - 2003 shows that the MC fraction varies with the phase of the solar cycle, from approximately 100% (though with low statistics) at solar minimum to approximately 15% at solar maximum. A similar trend is evident in near-Earth observations during solar cycles 20 - 21, while Helios 1/2 spacecraft observations at 0.3 - 1.0 AU show a weaker trend and larger MC fraction.
Radio sounding of the solar corona during 1995 solar conjunction of the Ulysses spacecraft
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bird, M. K.; Paetzold, M.; Karl, J.; Edenhofer, P.; Asmar, S. W.
1995-01-01
The Ulysses spacecraft will pass through superior solar conjunction on March 5 1995, a few days before its perihelion and passage through the ecliptic plane. Dual-frequency S/X-band ranging and Doppler observations will be conducted in support of the Ulysses Solar Corona Experiment (SCE) during a three-week interval centered on the conjunction. The occultation geometry is unique in the annals of interplanetary exploration. As viewed from Earth, the spacecraft will appear to cut diagonally through the southwest quadrant of the solar corona from the South Pole to the equator. The minimum proximate distance to the Sun of the radio ray path will be 21.6 solar radius. The entire latitude scan from pole to equator occurs for a limited range of solar offset distances (is less than 30 solar radius thus facilitating the separation of latitudinal from radial variations in the coronal density and associated parameters of interest.
The structure of the inner heliosphere from Pioneer Venus and IMP observations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Gazis, P. R.; Barnes, A.; Mihalov, J. D.; Lazarus, A. J.
1992-01-01
The IMP 8 and Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) spacecraft explore the region of heliographic latitudes between 8 deg N and 8 deg S. Solar wind observations from these spacecraft are used to construct synoptic maps of solar wind parameters in this region. These maps provide an explicit picture of the structure of high speed streams near 1 AU and how that structure varies with time. From 1982 until early 1985, solar wind parameters varied little with latitude. During the last solar minimum, the solar wind developed strong latitudinal structure; high speed streams were excluded from the vicinity of the solar equator. Synoptic maps of solar wind speed are compared with maps of the coronal source surface magnetic field. This comparison reveals the expected correlation between solar wind speed near 1 AU, the strength of the coronal magnetic field, and distance from the coronal neutral line.
Solar wind noble gases and nitrogen in metal from lunar soil 68501
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Becker, Richard H.; Pepin, Robert O.
1994-01-01
Noble gases and N were analyzed in handpicked metal separates from lunar soil 68501 by a combination of step-wise combustions and pyrolyses. Helium and Ne were found to be unfractionated with respect to one another when normalized to solar abundances, for both the bulk sample and for all but the highest temperature steps. However, they are depleted relative to Ar, Kr and Xe by at least a factor of 5. The heavier gases exhibit mass-dependent fractionation relative to solar system abundance ratios but appear unfractionated, both in the bulk metal and in early temperature steps, when compared to relative abundances derived from lunar ilmenite 71501 by chemical etching, recently put forward as representing the abundance ratios in solar wind. Estimates of the contribution of solar energetic particles (SEP) to the originally implanted solar gases, derived from a basic interpretation of He and Ne isotopes, yield values of about 10%. Analysis of the Ar isotopes requires a minimum of 20% SEP, and Kr isotopes, using our preferred composition for solar wind Kr, yield a result that overlaps both these values. It is possible to reconcile the data from these gases if significant loss of solar wind Ar, Kr and presumably Xe has occurred relative to the SEP component, most likely by erosive processes that are mass independent, although mass-dependent losses (Ar greater than Kr greater than Xe) cannot be excluded. If such losses did occur, the SEP contribution to the solar implanted gases must have been no more than a few percent. Nitrogen is a mixture of indigenous meteoritic N, whose isotopic composition is inferred to be relatively light, and implanted solar N, which has probably undergone diffusive redistribution and fractionation. If the heavy noble gases have not undergone diffusive loss, then N/Ar in the solar wind can be inferred to be at least several times the accepted solar ratio. The solar wind N appears, even after correction for fractionation effects, to have a minimum delta N-15 value equal to or greater than +150% and a more probable value equal to or greater than +200%.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Filwett, R. J.; Desai, M. I.; Dayeh, M. A.
2017-03-20
We have analyzed the ∼20–320 keV nucleon{sup −1} suprathermal (ST) heavy ion abundances in 41 corotating interaction regions (CIRs) observed by the Wind spacecraft from 1995 January to 2008 December. Our results are: (1) the CIR Fe/CNO and NeS/CNO ratios vary with the sunspot number, with values being closer to average solar energetic particle event values during solar maxima and lower than nominal solar wind values during solar minima. The physical mechanism responsible for the depleted abundances during solar minimum remains an open question. (2) The Fe/CNO increases with energy in the 6 events that occurred during solar maximum, whilemore » no such trends are observed for the 35 events during solar minimum. (3) The Fe/CNO shows no correlation with the average solar wind speed. (4) The Fe/CNO is well correlated with the corresponding upstream ∼20–320 keV nucleon{sup −1} Fe/CNO and not with the solar wind Fe/O measured by ACE in 31 events. Using the correlations between the upstream ∼20–40 keV nucleon{sup −1} Fe/CNO and the ∼20–320 keV nucleon{sup −1} Fe/CNO in CIRs, we estimate that, on average, the ST particles traveled ∼2 au along the nominal Parker spiral field line, which corresponds to upper limits for the radial distance of the source or acceleration location of ∼1 au beyond Earth orbit. Our results are consistent with those obtained from recent surveys, and confirm that CIR ST heavy ions are accelerated more locally, and are at odds with the traditional viewpoint that CIR ions seen at 1 au are bulk solar wind ions accelerated between 3 and 5 au.« less
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Schwadron, N. A., E-mail: nschwadron@unh.edu; Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, TX, 78238; McComas, D. J.
2016-03-25
Since launch in Oct. 2008, IBEX, with its two energetic neutral atom (ENA) cameras, has provided humankind with the first-ever global images of the complex boundary separating the heliosphere from the local interstellar medium (LISM). IBEX’s energy-resolved all-sky maps, collected every six months, are yielding remarkable new insights into the heliospheres structure as it is shaped by the combined forces of the local interstellar flow, the local interstellar magnetic field (LISMF), and the evolving solar wind. IBEX has also acquired the first images of ENAs backscattered from the surface of the moon as well as global images of the magnetosphericmore » response to solar wind disturbances. IBEX thus addresses all three Heliophysics science objectives set forth in the 2014 Science Plan for NASAs Science Mission Directorate (SMD) as well as the goals in the recent Solar and Space Physics Decadal Survey (NRC 2012). In addition, with the information it provides on the properties of the LISM and the LISMF, IBEX represents a unique bridge between heliophysics and astrophysics, and fills in critical knowledge for understanding the habitability of exoplanetary systems and the future habitability of Earth and the solar system. Because of the few-year time lag due to solar wind and ENA transport, IBEX observed the solar wind/ LISM interaction characteristic of declining phase/solar minimum conditions. In the continuing mission, IBEX captures the response of the interstellar boundaries to the changing structure of the solar wind in its transition toward the “mini” solar maximum and possibly the decline into the next solar minimum. The continuing IBEX mission affords never-to-be-repeated opportunities to coordinate global imaging of the heliospheric boundary with in-situ measurements by the Voyagers as they pass beyond the heliopause and start to directly sample the LISM.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Frouin, Robert; Ueyoshi, Kyozo; Kampel, Milton
2007-09-01
Numerical experiments conducted with an ocean general ocean circulation model reveal the potential influence of solar radiation absorbed by phytoplankton on the thermal structure and currents of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean. In the model, solar radiation penetration is parameterized explicitly as a function of chlorophyll-a concentration, the major variable affecting water turbidity in the open ocean. Two types of runs are performed, a clear water (control) run with a constant minimum chlorophyll-a concentration of 0.02 mgm -3, and a turbid water (chlorophyll) run with space- and time-varying chlorophyll-a concentration from satellite data. The difference between results from the two runs yields the biological effects. In the chlorophyll run, nutrients and biology production are implicitly taken into account, even though biogeochemical processes are not explicitly included, since phytoplankton distribution, prescribed from observations, is the result of those processes. Due to phytoplankton-radiation forcing, the surface temperature is higher by 1-2 K on average annually in the region of the North Equatorial current, the Northern part of the South Equatorial current, and the Caribbean system, and by 3-4 K in the region of the Guinea current. In this region, upwelling is reduced, and heat trapped in the surface layers by phytoplankton is not easily removed. The surface temperature is lower by 1 K in the Northern region of the Benguela current, due to increased upwelling. At depth, the equatorial Atlantic is generally cooler, as well as the eastern part of the tropical basin (excluding the region of the sub-tropical gyres). The North and South equatorial currents, as well as the Equatorial undercurrent, are enhanced by as much as 3-4 cms -1, and the circulation of the subtropical gyres is increased. Pole-ward heat transport is slightly reduced North of 35°N, suggesting that phytoplankton, by increasing the horizontal return flow in the subtropical region, may exert a cooling influence on higher latitude regions. The findings indicate that biology-induced buoyancy plays a significant role, in an indirect if not direct way, in the variability of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean, with consequences on atmospheric circulation and climate.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Armand, Sasan C.; Liao, Mei-Hwa; Morris, Ronald W.
1990-01-01
The Space Station Freedom photovoltaic solar array blanket assembly is comprised of several layers of materials having dissimilar elastic, thermal, and mechanical properties. The operating temperature of the solar array, which ranges from -75 to +60 C, along with the material incompatibility of the blanket assembly components combine to cause an elastic-plastic stress in the weld points of the assembly. The weld points are secondary structures in nature, merely serving as electrical junctions for gathering the current. The thermal mechanical loading of the blanket assembly operating in low earth orbit continually changes throughout each 90 min orbit, which raises the possibility of fatigue induced failure. A series of structural analyses were performed in an attempt to predict the fatigue life of the solar cell in the Space Station Freedom photovoltaic array blanket. A nonlinear elastic-plastic MSC/NASTRAN analysis followed by a fatigue calculation indicated a fatigue life of 92,000 to 160,000 cycles for the solar cell weld tabs. Additional analyses predict a permanent buckling phenomenon in the copper interconnect after the first loading cycle. This should reduce or eliminate the pulling of the copper interconnect on the joint where it is welded to the silicon solar cell. It is concluded that the actual fatigue life of the solar array blanket assembly should be significantly higher than the calculated 92,000 cycles, and thus the program requirement of 87,500 cycles (orbits) will be met. Another important conclusion that can be drawn from the overall analysis is that, the strain results obtained from the MSC/NASTRAN nonlinear module are accurate to use for low-cycle fatigue analysis, since both thermal cycle testing of solar cells and analysis have shown higher fatigue life than the minimum program requirement of 87,500 cycles.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bredvik, Gordon D.
1990-01-01
We are currently experiencing a period of high solar radiation combined with wide short-term fluctuations in the radiation. The short-term fluctuations, especially when combined with highly energetic solar flares, can adversely affect the mission of U.S. Space Command's Space Surveillance Center (SSC) which catalogs and tracks the satellites in orbit around the Earth. Rapidly increasing levels of solar electromagnetic and/or particle radiation (solar wind) causes atmospheric warming, which, in turn, causes the upper-most portions of the atmosphere to expand outward, into the regime of low altitude satellites. The increased drag on satellites from this expansion can cause large, unmodeled, in-track displacements, thus undermining the SSC's ability to track and predict satellite position. On 13 March 1989, high solar radiation levels, combined with a high-energy solar flare, caused an exceptional amount of short-term atmospheric warming. The SSC temporarily lost track of over 1300 low altitude satellites--nearly half of the low altitude satellite population. Observational data on satellites that became lost during the days following the 13 March 'solar event' was analyzed and compared with the satellites' last element set prior to the event (referred to as a geomagnetic storm because of the large increase in magnetic flux in the upper atmosphere). The analysis led to a set of procedures for reducing the impact of future geomagnetic storms. These procedures adjust selected software limit parameters in the differential correction of element sets and in the observation association process and must be manually initiated at the onset of a geomagnetic storm. Sensor tasking procedures must be adjusted to ensure that a minimum of four observations per day are received for low altitude satellites. These procedures have been implemented and, thus far, appear to be successful in minimizing the effect of subsequent geomagnetic storms on satellite tracking and ephemeris computation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Tsurutani, B. T.; Mannucci, A. J.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Hunt, L. A.; Runge, T.
2013-02-01
We study solar wind-ionosphere coupling through the late declining phase/solar minimum and geomagnetic minimum phases during the last solar cycle (SC23) - 2008 and 2009. This interval was characterized by sequences of high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs). The concomitant geomagnetic response was moderate geomagnetic storms and high-intensity, long-duration continuous auroral activity (HILDCAA) events. The JPL Global Ionospheric Map (GIM) software and the GPS total electron content (TEC) database were used to calculate the vertical TEC (VTEC) and estimate daily averaged values in separate latitude and local time ranges. Our results show distinct low- and mid-latitude VTEC responses to HSSs during this interval, with the low-latitude daytime daily averaged values increasing by up to 33 TECU (annual average of ~20 TECU) near local noon (12:00 to 14:00 LT) in 2008. In 2009 during the minimum geomagnetic activity (MGA) interval, the response to HSSs was a maximum of ~30 TECU increases with a slightly lower average value than in 2008. There was a weak nighttime ionospheric response to the HSSs. A well-studied solar cycle declining phase interval, 10-22 October 2003, was analyzed for comparative purposes, with daytime low-latitude VTEC peak values of up to ~58 TECU (event average of ~55 TECU). The ionospheric VTEC changes during 2008-2009 were similar but ~60% less intense on average. There is an evidence of correlations of filtered daily averaged VTEC data with Ap index and solar wind speed. We use the infrared NO and CO2 emission data obtained with SABER on TIMED as a proxy for the radiation balance of the thermosphere. It is shown that infrared emissions increase during HSS events possibly due to increased energy input into the auroral region associated with HILDCAAs. The 2008-2009 HSS intervals were ~85% less intense than the 2003 early declining phase event, with annual averages of daily infrared NO emission power of ~ 3.3 × 1010 W and 2.7 × 1010 W in 2008 and 2009, respectively. The roles of disturbance dynamos caused by high-latitude winds (due to particle precipitation and Joule heating in the auroral zones) and of prompt penetrating electric fields (PPEFs) in the solar wind-ionosphere coupling during these intervals are discussed. A correlation between geoeffective interplanetary electric field components and HSS intervals is shown. Both PPEF and disturbance dynamo mechanisms could play important roles in solar wind-ionosphere coupling during prolonged (up to days) external driving within HILDCAA intervals.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Doyle, Chris; Loomans, Len; Truitt, Andrew
2015-12-29
This Best Practices in Commercial and Industrial Solar Photovoltaic System Installation Guide is the second of a series of guides designed to standardize and improve solar asset transparency for investors and rating agencies, provide an industry framework for quality management, and reduce transaction costs in the solar asset securitization process. The Best Practices in C&I PV System Installation Guide is intended to outline the minimum requirements for commercial and industrial solar project developments. Adherence to the guide is voluntary. Providers that adhere to the guide are responsible for self-certifying that they have fulfilled the guide requirements. Investors and rating agenciesmore » should verify compliance.« less
An Improved Radiative Transfer Model for Climate Calculations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bergstrom, Robert W.; Mlawer, Eli J.; Sokolik, Irina N.; Clough, Shepard A.; Toon, Owen B.
1998-01-01
This paper presents a radiative transfer model that has been developed to accurately predict the atmospheric radiant flux in both the infrared and the solar spectrum with a minimum of computational effort. The model is designed to be included in numerical climate models To assess the accuracy of the model, the results are compared to other more detailed models for several standard cases in the solar and thermal spectrum. As the thermal spectrum has been treated in other publications, we focus here on the solar part of the spectrum. We perform several example calculations focussing on the question of absorption of solar radiation by gases and aerosols.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Holland, T. H.; Borzoni, J. T.
1976-01-01
A low cost flat plate solar energy collector was designed for the heating and cooling of residential buildings. The system meets specified performance requirements, at the desired system operating levels, for a useful life of 15 to 20 years, at minimum cost and uses state-of-the-art materials and technology. The rationale for the design method was based on identifying possible material candidates for various collector components and then selecting the components which best meet the solar collector design requirements. The criteria used to eliminate certain materials were: performance and durability test results, cost analysis, and prior solar collector fabrication experience.
Evidence that one is more likely to see the aurora near Moscow than near Ann Arbor
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liemohn, Michael; Immel, Thomas; Katus, Roxanne
We present a superposed epoch analysis of solar wind drivers and geomagnetic index responses during magnetic storms, categorized as a function of universal time (UT) of the storm peak, to investigate the dependency of storm intensity on UT. Storms with Dst minimum less than - 100 nT were identified in the 1970 - 2012 era (totaling 310 events), covering four solar cycles. The storms were classified into 6 groups based on the UT of the minimum Dst (36 to 82 events per bin), then each grouping was superposed on a timeline that aligns the time of the minimum Dst. Fifteen different quantities were considered, seven solar wind parameters and eight activity indices derived from ground-based magnetometers. Statistical analyses of the superposed means against each other (between the different UT groupings) were conducted to determine the mathematical significance of similarities and differences in the time series plots. It was found that most of the solar wind parameters have essentially no significant difference between the UT groupings, as expected. The exception is solar wind velocity, which appears to be bifurcated into two levels with three of the UT groupings systematically faster than the other three (although, interestingly, not three consecutive UT bins). The geomagnetic activity indices, however, all show statistically significant differences with UT during the main phase and/or early recovery phase. Specifically, the 16, 20, and 00 UT groupings are stronger storms than those in the other UT bins. That is, storms are stronger when the Asian sector is on the nightside (American sector on the dayside) during the main phase. An inference from these findings, therefore, is that one is more likely to see the aurora near Moscow in Russia than near Ann Arbor, Michigan in the United States, even though these two cities have very similar magnetic latitudes (52 degrees).
Fabrication of p(+)-n junction GaAs solar cells by a novel method
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Ghandhi, S. K.; Mathur, G.; Rode, H.; Borrego, J. M.
1984-01-01
A novel method for making p(+)-n diffused junction GaAs solar cells, with the formation of a diffusion source, an anti-reflective coating, and a protective cover glass in a single chemical-vapor deposition operation is discussed. Consideration is given to device fabrication and to solar-cell characteristics. The advantages of the technique are that the number of process steps is kept to an absolute minimum, the fabrication procedure is low-cost, and the GaAs surface is protected during the entire operation.
SphinX catalogue of small flares and brightenings
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gryciuk, Magdalena; Sylwester, Janusz; Gburek, Szymon; Siarkowski, Marek; Mrozek, Tomasz; Kepa, Anna
The Solar Photometer in X-rays (SphinX) was designed to measure soft X-ray solar emission in the energy range between 1 keV and 15 keV. The instrument operated from February until November 2009 aboard CORONAS-Photon satellite, during the phase of extraordinary low minimum of solar activity. Thanks to its very high sensitivity SphinX was able to record large number of tiny flares and brightenings. A catalogue of events observed by SphinX will be presented. Results of statistical analysis of events’ characteristics will be discussed.
Solar rejection for an orbiting telescope
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rehnberg, J. D.
1975-01-01
The present work discusses some of the constraints that the optical designer must deal with in optimizing spaceborne sensors that must look at or near the sun. Analytical techniques are described for predicting the effects of stray radiation from sources such as mirror scatter, baffle scatter, diffraction, and ghost images. In addition, the paper describes a sensor design that has been flown on the Apollo Telescope Mount (Skylab) to aid astronauts in locating solar flares. In addition to keeping stray radiation to a minimum, the design had to be nondegradable by the direct solar heat load.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Boehm, R. F.
1985-09-01
A review of thermodynamic principles is given in an effort to see if these concepts may indicate possibilities for improvements in solar central receiver power plants. Aspects related to rate limitations in cycles, thermodynamic availability of solar radiation, and sink temperature considerations are noted. It appears that considerably higher instantaneous plant efficiencies are possible by raising the maximum temperature and lowering the minimum temperature of the cycles. Of course, many practical engineering problems will have to be solved to realize the promised benefits.