Joint pattern of seasonal hydrological droughts and floods alternation in China's Huai River Basin using the multivariate L-moments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, ShaoFei; Zhang, Xiang; She, DunXian

2017-06-01

Under the current condition of climate change, droughts and floods occur more frequently, and events in which flooding occurs after a prolonged drought or a drought occurs after an extreme flood may have a more severe impact on natural systems and human lives. This challenges the traditional approach wherein droughts and floods are considered separately, which may largely underestimate the risk of the disasters. In our study, the sudden alternation of droughts and flood events (ADFEs) between adjacent seasons is studied using the multivariate L-moments theory and the bivariate copula functions in the Huai River Basin (HRB) of China with monthly streamflow data at 32 hydrological stations from 1956 to 2012. The dry and wet conditions are characterized by the standardized streamflow index (SSI) at a 3-month time scale. The results show that: (1) The summer streamflow makes the largest contribution to the annual streamflow, followed by the autumn streamflow and spring streamflow. (2) The entire study area can be divided into five homogeneous sub-regions using the multivariate regional homogeneity test. The generalized logistic distribution (GLO) and log-normal distribution (LN3) are acceptable to be the optimal marginal distributions under most conditions, and the Frank copula is more appropriate for spring-summer and summer-autumn SSI series. Continuous flood events dominate at most sites both in spring-summer and summer-autumn (with an average frequency of 13.78% and 17.06%, respectively), while continuous drought events come second (with an average frequency of 11.27% and 13.79%, respectively). Moreover, seasonal ADFEs most probably occurred near the mainstream of HRB, and drought and flood events are more likely to occur in summer-autumn than in spring-summer.

Influence of groundwater pumping on streamflow restoration following upstream dam removal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Constantz, J.; Essaid, H.

2007-01-01

We compared streamflow in basins under the combined impacts of an upland dam and groundwater pumping withdrawals, by examining streamflow in the presence and absence of each impact. As a qualitative analysis, inter-watersbed streamflow comparisons were performed for several rivers flowing into the east side of the Central Valley, CA. Results suggest that, in the absence of upland dams supporting large reservoirs, some reaches of these rivers might develop ephemeral streamflow in late summer. As a quantitative analysis, we conducted a series of streamflow/ groundwater simulations (using MODFLOW-2000 plus the streamflow routing package, SFR1) for a representative hypothetical watershed, with an upland dam and groundwater pumping in the downstream basin, under humid, semi-arid, and and conditions. As a result of including the impact of groundwater pumping, post-dam removal simulated streamflow was significantly less than natural streamflow. The model predicts extensive ephemeral conditions in the basin during September for both the arid and semi-arid cases. The model predicts continued perennial conditions in the humid case, but spatially weighted, average streamflow of only 71% of natural September streamflow, as a result of continued pumping after dam removal.

Evaluating Snow Data Assimilation Framework for Streamflow Forecasting Applications Using Hindcast Verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barik, M. G.; Hogue, T. S.; Franz, K. J.; He, M.

2012-12-01

Snow water equivalent (SWE) estimation is a key factor in producing reliable streamflow simulations and forecasts in snow dominated areas. However, measuring or predicting SWE has significant uncertainty. Sequential data assimilation, which updates states using both observed and modeled data based on error estimation, has been shown to reduce streamflow simulation errors but has had limited testing for forecasting applications. In the current study, a snow data assimilation framework integrated with the National Weather System River Forecasting System (NWSRFS) is evaluated for use in ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP). Seasonal water supply ESP hindcasts are generated for the North Fork of the American River Basin (NFARB) in northern California. Parameter sets from the California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm and the Multistep Automated Calibration Scheme (MACS) are tested both with and without sequential data assimilation. The traditional ESP method considers uncertainty in future climate conditions using historical temperature and precipitation time series to generate future streamflow scenarios conditioned on the current basin state. We include data uncertainty analysis in the forecasting framework through the DREAM-based parameter set which is part of a recently developed Integrated Uncertainty and Ensemble-based data Assimilation framework (ICEA). Extensive verification of all tested approaches is undertaken using traditional forecast verification measures, including root mean square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE), volumetric bias, joint distribution, rank probability score (RPS), and discrimination and reliability plots. In comparison to the RFC parameters, the DREAM and MACS sets show significant improvement in volumetric bias in flow. Use of assimilation improves hindcasts of higher flows but does not significantly improve performance in the mid flow and low flow categories.

Effects of groundwater levels and headwater wetlands on streamflow in the Charlie Creek basin, Peace River watershed, west-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, T.M.; Sacks, L.A.; Hughes, J.D.

2010-01-01

The Charlie Creek basin was studied from April 2004 to December 2005 to better understand how groundwater levels in the underlying aquifers and storage and overflow of water from headwater wetlands preserve the streamflows exiting this least-developed tributary basin of the Peace River watershed. The hydrogeologic framework, physical characteristics, and streamflow were described and quantified for five subbasins of the 330-square mile Charlie Creek basin, allowing the contribution of its headwaters area and tributary subbasins to be separately quantified. A MIKE SHE model simulation of the integrated surface-water and groundwater flow processes in the basin was used to simulate daily streamflow observed over 21 months in 2004 and 2005 at five streamflow stations, and to quantify the monthly and annual water budgets for the five subbasins including the changing amount of water stored in wetlands. Groundwater heads were mapped in Zone 2 of the intermediate aquifer system and in the Upper Floridan aquifer, and were used to interpret the location of artesian head conditions in the Charlie Creek basin and its relation to streamflow. Artesian conditions in the intermediate aquifer system induce upward groundwater flow into the surficial aquifer and help sustain base flow which supplies about two-thirds of the streamflow from the Charlie Creek basin. Seepage measurements confirmed seepage inflow to Charlie Creek during the study period. The upper half of the basin, comprised largely of the Upper Charlie Creek subbasin, has lower runoff potential than the lower basin, more storage of runoff in wetlands, and periodically generates no streamflow. Artesian head conditions in the intermediate aquifer system were widespread in the upper half of the Charlie Creek basin, preventing downward leakage from expansive areas of wetlands and enabling them to act as headwaters to Charlie Creek once their storage requirements were met. Currently, the dynamic balance between wetland storage, rainfall-runoff processes, and groundwater-level differences in the upper basin allow it to generate approximately half of the streamflow from the Charlie Creek basin. Therefore, future development in the upper basin that would alter the hydraulic connectivity of wetlands during high flow conditions or expand recharging groundwater conditions could substantially affect streamflow in Charlie Creek. LIDAR (Light detection and ranging) based topographic maps and integrated modeling results were used to quantify the water stored in wetlands and other topographic depressions, and to describe the network of shallow stream channels connecting wetlands to Charlie Creek and its tributaries over distances of several thousand feet. Peak flows at all but one streamflow station were underpredicted in MIKE SHE simulations, possibly because the hydraulics of surface channels connecting wetlands to stream channels were not explicitly simulated in the model. Explicitly simulating the smaller channels connecting wetlands and stream channels should improve the ability of future watershed models to simulate peak flows in streams with headwater wetlands. The runoff potential was greater in the lower half of the Charlie Creek basin than in the upper half, and the streambed of Charlie Creek had greater potential to both directly gain streamflow from groundwater and lose streamflow to groundwater. Charlie Creek is more incised into the surficial aquifer in the lower basin than in the upper basin, and the streambed intersects the top of the intermediate aquifer system at two known locations. Groundwater levels in the intermediate aquifer system varied widely in the lower half of the basin from artesian conditions inducing upward flow toward the surficial aquifer and streams, to recharging conditions allowing downward flow and stream leakage. Recharge areas were greatest in May 2004 when rainfall was at a seasonal low and irrigation pumping was at a seasonal high. Recharge conditions

Relation of nitrate concentrations to baseflow in the Raccoon River, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schilling, K.E.; Lutz, D.S.

2004-01-01

Excessive nitrate-nitrogen (nitrate) export from the Raccoon River in west central Iowa is an environmental concern to downstream receptors. The 1972 to 2000 record of daily streamflow and the results from 981 nitrate measurements were examined to describe the relation of nitrate to streamflow in the Raccoon River. No long term trends in streamflow and nitrate concentrations were noted in the 28-year record. Strong seasonal patterns were evident in nitrate concentrations, with higher concentrations occurring in spring and fall. Nitrate concentrations were linearly related to streamflow at daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales. At all time scales evaluated, the relation was improved when baseflow was used as the discharge variable instead of total streamflow. Nitrate concentrations were found to be highly stratified according to flow, but there was little relation of nitrate to streamflow within each flow range. Simple linear regression models developed to predict monthly mean nitrate concentrations explained as much as 76 percent of the variability in the monthly nitrate concentration data for 2001. Extrapolation of current nitrate baseflow relations to historical conditions in the Raccoon River revealed that increasing baseflow over the 20th century could account for a measurable increase in nitrate concentrations.

Low-flow characteristics of streams under natural and diversion conditions, Waipiʻo Valley, Island of Hawaiʻi, Hawaiʻi

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fontaine, Richard A.

2012-01-01

Over the past 100 years, natural streamflow in Waipiʻo Valley has been reduced by the transfer of water out of the valley by Upper and Lower Hāmākua Ditches. The physical condition and diversion practices along the two ditch systems have varied widely over the years, and as a result, so have their effects on natural streamflow in Waipiʻo Valley. Recent renovation and improvements to Lower Hāmākua Ditch system, along with proposals for its future operation and water-diversion strategies, have unknown implications. The purpose of this report is to quantify the availability of streamflow and to determine the effects of current and proposed diversion strategies on the low-flow hydrology in Waipiʻo Valley. In this report, the low-flow hydrology of Waipiʻo Valley is described in terms of flow-duration statistics. Flow-duration statistics were computed for three locations in the Waipiʻo Valley study area where long-term surface-water gaging stations have been operated. Using a variety of streamflow record-extension techniques, flow-duration statistics were estimated at an additional 13 locations where only few historical data are available or where discharge measurements were made as part of this study. Flow-duration statistics were computed to reflect natural conditions, current (2000-2005) diversion conditions, and proposed future diversion conditions at the 16 locations. At the downstream limit of the study area, on Wailoa Stream at an altitude of 190 feet, a baseline for evaluating the availability of streamflow is provided by computed flow-duration statistics that are representative of natural, no-diversion conditions. At the Wailoa gaging station, 95- and 50-percentile discharges under natural conditions were determined to be 86 and 112 cubic feet per second, respectively. Under 1965-1969 diversion conditions, natural 95- and 50-percentile discharges were reduced by 52 and 53 percent, to 41 and 53 cubic feet per second, respectively. Under current (2000-2005) diversion conditions, natural 95- and 50-percentile discharges were reduced by 21 and 24 percent, to 68 and 85 cubic feet per second, respectively. Under proposed future diversion conditions, natural 95- and 50-percentile discharges would be reduced by 33 and 24 percent, to 58 and 85 cubic feet per second, respectively. Compared to discharges that reflect current (2000-2005) diversion conditions, proposed future diversion conditions would reduce 95-percentile discharges, which are representative of moderate drought levels in the stream, by 15 percent. No change would be expected in 50-percentile discharges, which are representative of normal conditions. The effects of current (2000-2005) and proposed future diversion conditions on the natural flow of streams in the Waipiʻo Valley study area differ, depending on the location. Under current (2000-2005) diversion conditions, reductions in natural 95- or 50-percentile discharges of greater than 30 percent were found in Kawainui Stream downstream from Upper Hamakua Ditch to an altitude of about 1,435 feet and in the reach of Waimā Stream between Upper and Lower Hāmākua Ditches. Under proposed future diversion conditions, reductions in natural 95- or 50-percentile discharges of greater than 30 percent were found in Kawainui Stream downstream from Upper Hamakua Ditch to an altitude of about 1,435 feet, in the reach of Waimā Stream between Upper and Lower Hāmākua Ditches, and along most stream reaches downstream from Lower Hāmākua Ditch, except for Waimā Stream.

Using the tracer-dilution discharge method to develop streamflow records for ice-affected streams in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Capesius, Joseph P.; Sullivan, Joseph R.; O'Neill, Gregory B.; Williams, Cory A.

2005-01-01

Accurate ice-affected streamflow records are difficult to obtain for several reasons, which makes the management of instream-flow water rights in the wintertime a challenging endeavor. This report documents a method to improve ice-affected streamflow records for two gaging stations in Colorado. In January and February 2002, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board, conducted an experiment using a sodium chloride tracer to measure streamflow under ice cover by the tracer-dilution discharge method. The purpose of this study was to determine the feasibility of obtaining accurate ice-affected streamflow records by using a sodium chloride tracer that was injected into the stream. The tracer was injected at two gaging stations once per day for approximately 20 minutes for 25 days. Multiple-parameter water-quality sensors at the two gaging stations monitored background and peak chloride concentrations. These data were used to determine discharge at each site. A comparison of the current-meter streamflow record to the tracer-dilution streamflow record shows different levels of accuracy and precision of the tracer-dilution streamflow record at the two sites. At the lower elevation and warmer site, Brandon Ditch near Whitewater, the tracer-dilution method overestimated flow by an average of 14 percent, but this average is strongly biased by outliers. At the higher elevation and colder site, Keystone Gulch near Dillon, the tracer-dilution method experienced problems with the tracer solution partially freezing in the injection line. The partial freezing of the tracer contributed to the tracer-dilution method underestimating flow by 52 percent at Keystone Gulch. In addition, a tracer-pump-reliability test was conducted to test how accurately the tracer pumps can discharge the tracer solution in conditions similar to those used at the gaging stations. Although the pumps were reliable and consistent throughout the 25-day study period, the pumps underdischarged the tracer by 5.8-15.9 percent as compared to the initial pumping rate setting, which may explain some of the error in the tracer-dilution streamflow record as compared to current-meter streamflow record.

Verification of Advances in a Coupled Snow-runoff Modeling Framework for Operational Streamflow Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barik, M. G.; Hogue, T. S.; Franz, K. J.; He, M.

2011-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) River Forecast Centers (RFCs) issue hydrologic forecasts related to flood events, reservoir operations for water supply, streamflow regulation, and recreation on the nation's streams and rivers. The RFCs use the National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) for streamflow forecasting which relies on a coupled snow model (i.e. SNOW17) and rainfall-runoff model (i.e. SAC-SMA) in snow-dominated regions of the US. Errors arise in various steps of the forecasting system from input data, model structure, model parameters, and initial states. The goal of the current study is to undertake verification of potential improvements in the SNOW17-SAC-SMA modeling framework developed for operational streamflow forecasts. We undertake verification for a range of parameters sets (i.e. RFC, DREAM (Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis)) as well as a data assimilation (DA) framework developed for the coupled models. Verification is also undertaken for various initial conditions to observe the influence of variability in initial conditions on the forecast. The study basin is the North Fork America River Basin (NFARB) located on the western side of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in northern California. Hindcasts are verified using both deterministic (i.e. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency, root mean square error, and joint distribution) and probabilistic (i.e. reliability diagram, discrimination diagram, containing ratio, and Quantile plots) statistics. Our presentation includes comparison of the performance of different optimized parameters and the DA framework as well as assessment of the impact associated with the initial conditions used for streamflow forecasts for the NFARB.

Simulation of groundwater conditions and streamflow depletion to evaluate water availability in a Freeport, Maine, watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nielsen, Martha G.; Locke, Daniel B.

2012-01-01

In order to evaluate water availability in the State of Maine, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Maine Geological Survey began a cooperative investigation to provide the first rigorous evaluation of watersheds deemed "at risk" because of the combination of instream flow requirements and proportionally large water withdrawals. The study area for this investigation includes the Harvey and Merrill Brook watersheds and the Freeport aquifer in the towns of Freeport, Pownal, and Yarmouth, Maine. A numerical groundwater- flow model was used to evaluate groundwater withdrawals, groundwater-surface-water interactions, and the effect of water-management practices on streamflow. The water budget illustrates the effect that groundwater withdrawals have on streamflow and the movement of water within the system. Streamflow measurements were made following standard USGS techniques, from May through September 2009 at one site in the Merrill Brook watershed and four sites in the Harvey Brook watershed. A record-extension technique was applied to estimate long-term monthly streamflows at each of the five sites. The conceptual model of the groundwater system consists of a deep, confined aquifer (the Freeport aquifer) in a buried valley that trends through the middle of the study area, covered by a discontinuous confining unit, and topped by a thin upper saturated zone that is a mixture of sandy units, till, and weathered clay. Harvey and Merrill Brooks flow southward through the study area, and receive groundwater discharge from the upper saturated zone and from the deep aquifer through previously unknown discontinuities in the confining unit. The Freeport aquifer gets most of its recharge from local seepage around the edges of the confining unit, the remainder is received as inflow from the north within the buried valley. Groundwater withdrawals from the Freeport aquifer in the study area were obtained from the local water utility and estimated for other categories. Overall, the public-supply withdrawals (105.5 million gallons per year (Mgal/yr)) were much greater than those for any other category, being almost 7 times greater than all domestic well withdrawals (15.3 Mgal/yr). Industrial withdrawals in the study area (2.0 Mgal/yr) are mostly by a company that withdraws from an aquifer at the edge of the Merrill Brook watershed. Commercial withdrawals are very small (1.0 Mgal/yr), and no irrigation or other agricultural withdrawals were identified in this study area. A three-dimensional, steady-state groundwater-flow model was developed to evaluate stream-aquifer interactions and streamflow depletion from pumping, to help refine the conceptual model, and to predict changes in streamflow resulting from changes in pumping and recharge. Groundwater levels and flow in the Freeport aquifer study area were simulated with the three-dimensional, finite-difference groundwater-flow modeling code, MODFLOW-2005. Study area hydrology was simulated with a 3-layer model, under steady-state conditions. The groundwater model was used to evaluate changes that could occur in the water budgets of three parts of the local hydrologic system (the Harvey Brook watershed, the Merrill Brook watershed, and the buried aquifer from which pumping occurs) under several different climatic and pumping scenarios. The scenarios were (1) no pumping well withdrawals; (2) current (2009) pumping, but simulated drought conditions (20-percent reduction in recharge); (3) current (2009) recharge, but a 50-percent increase in pumping well withdrawals for public supply; and (4) drought conditions and increased pumping combined. In simulated drought situations, the overall recharge to the buried valley is about 15 percent less and the total amount of streamflow in the model area is reduced by about 19 percent. Without pumping, infiltration to the buried valley aquifer around the confining unit decreased by a small amount (0.05 million gallons per day (Mgal/d)), and discharge to the streams increased by about 8 percent (0.3 Mgal/d). A 50-percent increase in pumping resulted in a simulated decrease in streamflow discharge of about 4 percent (0.14 Mgal/d). Streamflow depletion in Harvey Brook was evaluated by use of the numerical groundwater-flow model and an analytical model. The analytical model estimated negligible depletion from Harvey Brook under current (2009) pumping conditions, whereas the numerical model estimated that flow to Harvey Brook decreased 0.38 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) because of the pumping well withdrawals. A sensitivity analysis of the analytical model method showed that conducting a cursory evaluation using an analytical model of streamflow depletion using available information may result in a very wide range in results, depending on how well the hydraulic conductivity variables and aquifer geometry of the system are known, and how well the aquifer fits the assumptions of the model. Using the analytical model to evaluate the streamflow depletion with an incomplete understanding of the hydrologic system gave results that seem unlikely to reflect actual streamflow depletion in the Freeport aquifer study area. In contrast, the groundwater-flow model was a more robust method of evaluating the amount of streamflow depletion that results from withdrawals in the Freeport aquifer, and could be used to evaluate streamflow depletion in both streams. Simulations of streamflow without pumping for each measurement site were compared to the calibratedmodel streamflow (with pumping), the difference in the total being streamflow depletion. Simulations without pumping resulted in a simulated increase in the steady-state flow rate of 0.38 ft3/s in Harvey Brook and 0.01 ft3/s in Merrill Brook. This translates into a streamflow-depletion amount equal to about 8.5 percent of the steady-state base flow in Harvey Brook, and an unmeasurable amount of depletion in Merrill Brook. If pumping was increased by 50 percent and recharge reduced by 20 percent, the amount of streamflow depletion in Harvey Brook could reach 1.41 ft3/s.

Treating pre-instrumental data as "missing" data: using a tree-ring-based paleoclimate record and imputations to reconstruct streamflow in the Missouri River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, M. W.; Lall, U.; Cook, E. R.

2015-12-01

Advances in paleoclimatology in the past few decades have provided opportunities to expand the temporal perspective of the hydrological and climatological variability across the world. The North American region is particularly fortunate in this respect where a relatively dense network of high resolution paleoclimate proxy records have been assembled. One such network is the annually-resolved Living Blended Drought Atlas (LBDA): a paleoclimate reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) that covers North America on a 0.5° × 0.5° grid based on tree-ring chronologies. However, the use of the LBDA to assess North American streamflow variability requires a model by which streamflow may be reconstructed. Paleoclimate reconstructions have typically used models that first seek to quantify the relationship between the paleoclimate variable and the environmental variable of interest before extrapolating the relationship back in time. In contrast, the pre-instrumental streamflow is here considered as "missing" data. A method of imputing the "missing" streamflow data, prior to the instrumental record, is applied through multiple imputation using chained equations for streamflow in the Missouri River Basin. In this method, the distribution of the instrumental streamflow and LBDA is used to estimate sets of plausible values for the "missing" streamflow data resulting in a ~600 year-long streamflow reconstruction. Past research into external climate forcings, oceanic-atmospheric variability and its teleconnections, and assessments of rare multi-centennial instrumental records demonstrate that large temporal oscillations in hydrological conditions are unlikely to be captured in most instrumental records. The reconstruction of multi-centennial records of streamflow will enable comprehensive assessments of current and future water resource infrastructure and operations under the existing scope of natural climate variability.

Potential effects of climate change on streamflow for seven watersheds in eastern and central Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, Katherine J.; Haj, Adel E.; Regan, R. Steven; Viger, Roland J.

2016-01-01

Study regionEastern and central Montana.Study focusFish in Northern Great Plains streams tolerate extreme conditions including heat, cold, floods, and drought; however changes in streamflow associated with long-term climate change may render some prairie streams uninhabitable for current fish species. To better understand future hydrology of these prairie streams, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and output from the RegCM3 Regional Climate model were used to simulate streamflow for seven watersheds in eastern and central Montana, for a baseline period (water years 1982–1999) and three future periods: water years 2021–2038 (2030 period), 2046–2063 (2055 period), and 2071–2088 (2080 period).New hydrological insights for the regionProjected changes in mean annual and mean monthly streamflow vary by the RegCM3 model selected, by watershed, and by future period. Mean annual streamflows for all future periods are projected to increase (11–21%) for two of the four central Montana watersheds: Middle Musselshell River and Cottonwood Creek. Mean annual streamflows for all future periods are projected to decrease (changes of −24 to −75%) for Redwater River watershed in eastern Montana. Mean annual streamflows are projected to increase slightly (2–15%) for the 2030 period and decrease (changes of −16 to −44%) for the 2080 period for the four remaining watersheds.

Evaluation of Streamflow Gain-Loss Characteristics of Hubbard Creek, in the Vicinity of a Mine-Permit Area, Delta County, Colorado, 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruddy, Barbara C.; Williams, Cory A.

2007-01-01

In 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Bowie Mining Company, initiated a study to characterize the streamflow and streamflow gain-loss in a reach of Hubbard Creek in Delta County, Colorado, in the vicinity of a mine-permit area planned for future coal mining. Premining streamflow characteristics and streamflow gain-loss variation were determined so that pre- and postmining gain-loss characteristics could be compared. This report describes the methods used in this study and the results of two streamflow-measurement sets collected during low-flow conditions. Streamflow gain-loss measurements were collected using rhodamine WT and sodium bromide tracers at four sites spanning the mine-permit area on June 26-28, 2007. Streamflows were estimated and compared between four measurement sites within three stream subreaches of the study reach. Data from two streamflow-gaging stations on Hubbard Creek upstream and downstream from the mine-permit area were evaluated. Streamflows at the stations were continuous, and flow at the upstream station nearly always exceeded the streamflow at the downstream station. Furthermore, streamflow at both stations showed similar diurnal patterns with traveltime offsets. On June 26, streamflow from the gain-loss measurements was greater at site 1 (most upstream site) than at site 4 (most downstream site); on June 27, streamflow was greater at site 4 than at site 2; and on June 27, there was no difference in streamflow between sites 2 and 3. Data from streamflow-gaging stations 09132940 and 09132960 showed diurnal variations and overall decreasing streamflow over time. The data indicate a dynamic system, and streamflow can increase or decrease depending on hydrologic conditions. The streamflow within the study reach was greater than the streamflows at either the upstream or downstream stations. A second set of gain-loss measurements was collected at sites 2 and 4 on November 8-9, 2007. On November 8, streamflow was greater at site 4 than at site 2, and on the following day, November 9, streamflow was greater at site 2 than at site 4. Data collection on November 8 occurred while the streamflow was increasing due to contributions from stream ice melting throughout different parts of the basin. Data collection on November 9 occurred earlier in the day with less stream ice melting and more steady-state conditions, so the indication that streamflow decreased between sites 2 and 4 may be more accurate. Diurnal variations in streamflow are common at both the upper and the lower streamflow-gaging stations. The upper streamflow-gaging station shows a melt-freeze influence from tributaries to Hubbard Creek during the winter season. Downstream from the study reach, observed diurnal variation is likely due to evapotranspiration associated with dense flood-plain vegetation, which consumes water from the creek during the middle of the day. Varying diurnal patterns in streamflow, combined with possible variations in tributary inflows to Hubbard Creek in the study reach, probably account for the observed variations in streamflow at the tracer measurement sites. During both sampling periods in June and November 2007, conditions were less than ideal and not steady state. The June 27 sampling indicates that the streamflow was increasing between measurement sites 2 and 4, and the November 9 sampling indicates that the streamflow was decreasing between measurement sites 2 and 4. The data collected during the diurnal and day-to-day variations in streamflow indicated that the streamflow reach is dynamic and can be gaining, losing, or constant.

Streamflow statistics for unregulated and regulated conditions for selected locations on the Yellowstone, Tongue, and Powder Rivers, Montana, 1928-2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, Katherine J.

2013-01-01

Major floods in 1996 and 1997 on the Yellowstone River in Montana intensified public debate over the effects of human activities on the Yellowstone River. In 1999, the Yellowstone River Conservation District Council was formed to address conservation issues on the river. The Yellowstone River Conservation District Council partnered with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to conduct a cumulative-effects study on the main stem of the Yellowstone River. The cumulative-effects study is intended to provide a basis for future management decisions in the watershed. Streamflow statistics, such as flow-frequency and flow-duration data calculated for unregulated and regulated streamflow conditions, are a necessary component of the cumulative effects study. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Yellowstone River Conservation District Council and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, calculated streamflow statistics for unregulated and regulated conditions for the Yellowstone, Tongue, and Powder Rivers for the 1928–2002 study period. Unregulated streamflow represents flow conditions that might have occurred during the 1928–2002 study period if there had been no water-resources development in the Yellowstone River Basin. Regulated streamflow represents estimates of flow conditions during the 1928–2002 study period if the level of water-resources development existing in 2002 was in place during the entire study period. Peak-flow frequency estimates for regulated and unregulated streamflow were developed using methods described in Bulletin 17B. High-flow frequency and low-flow frequency data were developed for regulated and unregulated streamflows from the annual series of highest and lowest (respectively) mean flows for specified n-day consecutive periods within the calendar year. Flow-duration data, and monthly and annual streamflow characteristics, also were calculated for the unregulated and regulated streamflows.

Evaluation of the streamflow-gaging network of Texas and a proposed core network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slade, Raymond M.; Howard, Teresa; Anaya, Roberto

2001-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey streamflowgaging network in Texas is operated as part of the National Streamgaging Program and is jointly funded by the Geological Survey and Federal, State, and local agencies. This report documents an evaluation of the existing (as of October 1, 1999) network with regard to four major objectives of streamflow data; and on the basis of that evaluation, proposes a core network of streamflowgaging stations that best meets those objectives. The objectives are (1) regionalization (estimate flows or flow characteristics at ungaged sites in 11 hydrologically similar regions), (2) major flow (obtain flow rates and volumes in large streams), (3) outflow from the State (account for streamflow leaving the State), and (4) streamflow conditions assessment (assess current conditions with regard to long-term data, and define temporal trends in flow). The network analysis resulted in a proposed core network of 263 stations. Of those 263 stations, 43 were discontinued as of October 1, 1999, and 15 were partial-record stations. Fifty-five of the proposed core-network stations meet two of the four major objectives, 16 stations meet three objectives, and 1 station meets all four. One-hundred eighty-five stations with a median record length of 33 years were selected to meet the regionalization objective. Ninety-two stations with a median record length of about 62 years were selected to meet the major-flow objective. Twenty-six stations with a median record length of 59 years were selected to meet the outflow from the State objective. Fifty stations with a median record length of 53 years were selected to meet the streamflow conditions assessment objective.

Validation of streamflow measurements made with M9 and RiverRay acoustic Doppler current profilers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boldt, Justin A.; Oberg, Kevin A.

2015-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Office of Surface Water (OSW) previously validated the use of Teledyne RD Instruments (TRDI) Rio Grande (in 2007), StreamPro (in 2006), and Broadband (in 1996) acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) for streamflow (discharge) measurements made by the USGS. Two new ADCPs, the SonTek M9 and the TRDI RiverRay, were first used in the USGS Water Mission Area programs in 2009. Since 2009, the OSW and USGS Water Science Centers (WSCs) have been conducting field measurements as part of their stream-gaging program using these ADCPs. The purpose of this paper is to document the results of USGS OSW analyses for validation of M9 and RiverRay ADCP streamflow measurements. The OSW required each participating WSC to make comparison measurements over the range of operating conditions in which the instruments were used until sufficient measurements were available. The performance of these ADCPs was evaluated for validation and to identify any present and potential problems. Statistical analyses of streamflow measurements indicate that measurements made with the SonTek M9 ADCP using firmware 2.00–3.00 or the TRDI RiverRay ADCP using firmware 44.12–44.15 are unbiased, and therefore, can continue to be used to make streamflow measurements in the USGS stream-gaging program. However, for the M9 ADCP, there are some important issues to be considered in making future measurements. Possible future work may include additional validation of streamflow measurements made with these instruments from other locations in the United States and measurement validation using updated firmware and software.

Intensified pluvial conditions during the twentieth century in the inland Heihe River Basin in arid northwestern China over the past millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Chun; Yang, Bao; Burchardt, Iris; Hu, Xiaoli; Kang, Xingcheng

2010-06-01

Past streamflow variability is of special significance in the inland river basin, i.e., the Heihe River Basin in arid northwestern China, where water shortage is a serious environmental and social problem. However, the current knowledge of issues related to regional water resources management and long-term planning and management is limited by the lack of long-term hydro-meteorological records. Here we present a 1009-year annual streamflow (August-July) reconstruction for the upstream of the Heihe River in the arid northwestern China based on a well-replicated Qilian juniper ( Sabina przewalskii Kom.) ring-width chronology. This reconstruction accounts for 46.9% of the observed instrumental streamflow variance during the period 1958-2006. Considerable multidecadal to centennial flow variations below and above the long-term average are displayed in the millennium streamflow reconstruction. These periods 1012-1053, 1104-1212, 1259-1352, 1442-1499, 1593-1739 and 1789-1884 are noteworthy for the persistence of low-level river flow, and for the fact that these low streamflow events are not found in the observed instrumental hydrological record during the recent 50 years. The 20th century witnessed intensified pluvial conditions in the upstream of the Heihe River in the arid northwestern China in the context of the last millennium. Comparison with other long-term hydrological reconstructions indicates that the intensification of the hydrological cycle in the twentieth century from different regions could be attributable to regional to large-scale temperature increase during this time. Furthermore, from a practical perspective, the streamflow reconstruction can serve as a robust database for the government to work out more scientific and more reasonable water allocation alternatives for the Heihe River Basin in arid northwestern China.

Using tracers to evaluate streamflow gain-loss characteristics of Terror Creek, in the vicinity of a mine-permit area, Delta County, Colorado, water year 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Cory A.; Leib, Kenneth J.

2005-01-01

In 2003, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Delta County, initiated a study to characterize streamflow gainloss in a reach of Terror Creek, in the vicinity of a mine-permit area planned for future coal mining. This report describes the methods of the study and includes results from a comparison of two sets of streamflow measurements using tracer techniques following the constant-rate injection method. Two measurement sets were used to characterize the streamflow gain-loss associated with reservoir-supplemented streamflow conditions and with natural base-flow conditions. A comparison of the measurement sets indicates that the streamflow gain-loss characteristics of the Terror Creek study reach are consistent between the two hydrologic conditions evaluated. A substantial streamflow gain occurs between measurement locations 4 and 5 in both measurement sets, and streamflow is lost between measurement locations 5 and 7 (measurement set 1, measurement location 6 not visited) and 5 and 6 (measurement set 2). A comparison of the measurement sets above and below the mine-permit area (measurement locations 3 and 7) shows a consistent loss of 0.37 and 0.31 cubic foot per second (representing 5- and 12-percent streamflow losses normalized to measurement location 3) for measurement sets 1 and 2, respectively. This indicates that similar streamflow losses occur both during reservoir-supplemented and natural base-flow conditions, with a mean streamflow loss of 0.34 cubic foot per second for measurement sets 1 and 2. Findings from a previous investigation support the observed streamflow loss between measurement locations 3 and 7 in this study. The findings from the previous investigation indicate a streamflow loss of 0.59 cubic foot per second occurs between these measurement locations. Statistical testing of the differences in streamflow between measurement locations 3 and 7 indicates that there is a discernible streamflow loss. The p-value of 0.0236 for the parametric paired t-test indicates that there is a 2.36-percent probability of observing a sample mean difference of 0.34 cubic foot per second if the population mean is zero. The p-value of 0.125 for the nonparametric exact Wilcoxon signed rank test indicates that there is a 12.5-percent probability of observing a sample mean difference this large if the population mean is zero. The similarity in streamflow gain-loss between measurement sets indicates that the process controlling streamflow may be the same between the two hydrologic conditions evaluated. Gains between measurement locations 4 and 5 may be related to hyporheic flow from tributaries that were dry during the study. No other obvious sources of surface water were identified during the investigation. The cause for the observed streamflow loss between measurement locations 5 and 6 is unknown but may be related to mapped local faulting, 100 years of coal mining in the area, and aquifer recharge.

Fusing enhanced radar precipitation, in-situ hydrometeorological measurements and airborne LIDAR snowpack estimates in a hyper-resolution hydrologic model to improve seasonal water supply forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gochis, D. J.; Busto, J.; Howard, K.; Mickey, J.; Deems, J. S.; Painter, T. H.; Richardson, M.; Dugger, A. L.; Karsten, L. R.; Tang, L.

2015-12-01

Scarcity of spatially- and temporally-continuous observations of precipitation and snowpack conditions in remote mountain watersheds results in fundamental limitations in water supply forecasting. These limitationsin observational capabilities can result in strong biases in total snowmelt-driven runoff amount, the elevational distribution of runoff, river basin tributary contributions to total basin runoff and, equally important for water management, the timing of runoff. The Upper Rio Grande River basin in Colorado and New Mexico is one basin where observational deficiencies are hypothesized to have significant adverse impacts on estimates of snowpack melt-out rates and on water supply forecasts. We present findings from a coordinated observational-modeling study within Upper Rio Grande River basin whose aim was to quanitfy the impact enhanced precipitation, meteorological and snowpack measurements on the simulation and prediction of snowmelt driven streamflow. The Rio Grande SNOwpack and streamFLOW (RIO-SNO-FLOW) Prediction Project conducted enhanced observing activities during the 2014-2015 water year. Measurements from a gap-filling, polarimetric radar (NOXP) and in-situ meteorological and snowpack measurement stations were assimilated into the WRF-Hydro modeling framework to provide continuous analyses of snowpack and streamflow conditions. Airborne lidar estimates of snowpack conditions from the NASA Airborne Snow Observatory during mid-April and mid-May were used as additional independent validations against the various model simulations and forecasts of snowpack conditions during the melt-out season. Uncalibrated WRF-Hydro model performance from simulations and forecasts driven by enhanced observational analyses were compared against results driven by currently operational data inputs. Precipitation estimates from the NOXP research radar validate significantly better against independent in situ observations of precipitation and snow-pack increases. Correcting the operational NLDAS2 forcing data with the experimental observations led to significant improvements in the seasonal accumulation and ablation of mountain snowpack and ultimately led to marked improvement in model simulated streamflow as compared with streamflow observations.

Identification of symmetric and asymmetric responses in seasonal streamflow globally to ENSO phase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip J.; Block, Paul

2018-04-01

The phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has large-ranging effects on streamflow and hydrologic conditions globally. While many studies have evaluated this relationship through correlation analysis between annual streamflow and ENSO indices, an assessment of potential asymmetric relationships between ENSO and streamflow is lacking. Here, we evaluate seasonal variations in streamflow by ENSO phase to identify asymmetric (AR) and symmetric (SR) spatial pattern responses globally and further corroborate with local precipitation and hydrological condition. The AR and SR patterns between seasonal precipitation and streamflow are identified at many locations for the first time. Our results identify strong SR patterns in particular regions including northwestern and southern US, northeastern and southeastern South America, northeastern and southern Africa, southwestern Europe, and central-south Russia. The seasonally lagged anomalous streamflow patterns are also identified and attributed to snowmelt, soil moisture, and/or cumulative hydrological processes across river basins. These findings may be useful in water resources management and natural hazards planning by better characterizing the propensity of flood or drought conditions by ENSO phase.

Streamflow alteration at selected sites in Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Juracek, Kyle E.; Eng, Ken

2017-06-26

An understanding of streamflow alteration in response to various disturbances is necessary for the effective management of stream habitat for a variety of species in Kansas. Streamflow alteration can have negative ecological effects. Using a modeling approach, streamflow alteration was assessed for 129 selected U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in the State for which requisite streamflow and basin-characteristic information was available. The assessment involved a comparison of the observed condition from 1980 to 2015 with the predicted expected (least-disturbed) condition for 29 streamflow metrics. The metrics represent various characteristics of streamflow including average flow (annual, monthly) and low and high flow (frequency, duration, magnitude).Streamflow alteration in Kansas was indicated locally, regionally, and statewide. Given the absence of a pronounced trend in annual precipitation in Kansas, a precipitation-related explanation for streamflow alteration was not supported. Thus, the likely explanation for streamflow alteration was human activity. Locally, a flashier flow regime (typified by shorter lag times and more frequent and higher peak discharges) was indicated for three streamgages with urbanized basins that had higher percentages of impervious surfaces than other basins in the State. The combination of localized reservoir effects and regional groundwater pumping from the High Plains aquifer likely was responsible, in part, for diminished conditions indicated for multiple streamflow metrics in western and central Kansas. Statewide, the implementation of agricultural land-management practices to reduce runoff may have been responsible, in part, for a diminished duration and magnitude of high flows. In central and eastern Kansas, implemented agricultural land-management practices may have been partly responsible for an inflated magnitude of low flows at several sites.

Validation of streamflow measurements made with acoustic doppler current profilers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oberg, K.; Mueller, D.S.

2007-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey and other international agencies have collaborated to conduct laboratory and field validations of acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) measurements of streamflow. Laboratory validations made in a large towing basin show that the mean differences between tow cart velocity and ADCP bottom-track and water-track velocities were -0.51 and -1.10%, respectively. Field validations of commercially available ADCPs were conducted by comparing streamflow measurements made with ADCPs to reference streamflow measurements obtained from concurrent mechanical current-meter measurements, stable rating curves, salt-dilution measurements, or acoustic velocity meters. Data from 1,032 transects, comprising 100 discharge measurements, were analyzed from 22 sites in the United States, Canada, Sweden, and The Netherlands. Results of these analyses show that broadband ADCP streamflow measurements are unbiased when compared to the reference discharges regardless of the water mode used for making the measurement. Measurement duration is more important than the number of transects for reducing the uncertainty of the ADCP streamflow measurement. ?? 2007 ASCE.

Artificial Neural Network Models for Long Lead Streamflow Forecasts using Climate Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, J.; Devineni, N.

2007-12-01

Information on season ahead stream flow forecasts is very beneficial for the operation and management of water supply systems. Daily streamflow conditions at any particular reservoir primarily depend on atmospheric and land surface conditions including the soil moisture and snow pack. On the other hand recent studies suggest that developing long lead streamflow forecasts (3 months ahead) typically depends on exogenous climatic conditions particularly Sea Surface Temperature conditions (SST) in the tropical oceans. Examples of some oceanic variables are El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Identification of such conditions that influence the moisture transport into a given basin poses many challenges given the nonlinear dependency between the predictors (SST) and predictand (stream flows). In this study, we apply both linear and nonlinear dependency measures to identify the predictors that influence the winter flows into the Neuse basin. The predictor identification approach here adopted uses simple correlation coefficients to spearman rank correlation measures for detecting nonlinear dependency. All these dependency measures are employed with a lag 3 time series of the high flow season (January - February - March) using 75 years (1928-2002) of stream flows recorded in to the Falls Lake, Neuse River Basin. Developing streamflow forecasts contingent on these exogenous predictors will play an important role towards improved water supply planning and management. Recently, the soft computing techniques, such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) have provided an alternative method to solve complex problems efficiently. ANNs are data driven models which trains on the examples given to it. The ANNs functions as universal approximators and are non linear in nature. This paper presents a study aiming towards using climatic predictors for 3 month lead time streamflow forecast. ANN models representing the physical process of the system are developed between the identified predictors and the predictand. Predictors used are the scores of Principal Components Analysis (PCA). The models were tested and validated. The feed- forward multi-layer perceptron (MLP) type neural networks trained using the back-propagation algorithms are employed in the current study. The performance of the ANN-model forecasts are evaluated using various performance evaluation measures such as correlation coefficient, root mean square error (RMSE). The preliminary results shows that ANNs are efficient to forecast long lead time streamflows using climatic predictors.

Macroinvertebrate community change associated with the severity of streamflow alteration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carlisle, Daren M.; Eng, Kenny; Nelson, S.M.

2014-01-01

Natural streamflows play a critical role in stream ecosystems, yet quantitative relations between streamflow alteration and stream health have been elusive. One reason for this difficulty is that neither streamflow alteration nor ecological responses are measured relative to their natural expectations. We assessed macroinvertebrate community condition in 25 mountain streams representing a large gradient of streamflow alteration, which we quantified as the departure of observed flows from natural expectations. Observed flows were obtained from US Geological Survey streamgaging stations and discharge records from dams and diversion structures. During low-flow conditions in September, samples of macroinvertebrate communities were collected at each site, in addition to measures of physical habitat, water chemistry and organic matter. In general, streamflows were artificially high during summer and artificially low throughout the rest of the year. Biological condition, as measured by richness of sensitive taxa (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera) and taxonomic completeness (O/E), was strongly and negatively related to the severity of depleted flows in winter. Analyses of macroinvertebrate traits suggest that taxa losses may have been caused by thermal modification associated with streamflow alteration. Our study yielded quantitative relations between the severity of streamflow alteration and the degree of biological impairment and suggests that water management that reduces streamflows during winter months is likely to have negative effects on downstream benthic communities in Utah mountain streams. 

Temporal Differences in the Hydrologic Regime of the Lower Platte River, Nebraska, 1895-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ginting, Daniel; Zelt, Ronald B.; Linard, Joshua I.

2008-01-01

In cooperation with the Lower Platte South Natural Resources District for a collaborative study of the cumulative effects of water and channel management practices on stream and riparian ecology, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) compiled, analyzed, and summarized hydrologic information from long-term gaging stations on the lower Platte River to determine any significant temporal differences among six discrete periods during 1895-2006 and to interpret any significant changes in relation to changes in climatic conditions or other factors. A subset of 171 examined hydrologic indices (HIs) were selected for use as indices that (1) included most of the variance in the larger set of indices, (2) retained utility as indicators of the streamflow regime, and (3) provided information at spatial and temporal scale(s) that were most indicative of streamflow regime(s). The study included the most downstream station within the central Platte River segment that flowed to the confluence with the Loup River and all four active streamflow-gaging stations (2006) on the lower Platte River main stem extending from the confluence of the Loup River and Platte River to the confluence of the Platte River and Missouri River south of Omaha. The drainage areas of the five streamflow-gaging stations covered four (of eight) climate divisions in Nebraska?division 2 (north central), 3 (northeast), 5 (central), and 6 (east central). Historical climate data and daily streamflow records from 1895 through 2006 at the five streamflow-gaging stations were divided into six 11-water-year periods: 1895?1905, 1934?44, 1951?61, 1966?76, 1985?95, and 1996?2006. Analysis of monthly climate variables?precipitation and Palmer Hydrological Drought Index?was used to determine the degree of hydroclimatic association between streamflow and climate. Except for the 1895?1905 period, data gaps in the streamflow record were filled by data estimation techniques, and 171 hydrologic indices were calculated using the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process software developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. A subset of 27 nonredundant indices (of the 171 indices) was selected using principal component analysis. Indices that described monthly streamflow?mean, maximum, minimum, skewness, and coefficients of variation?also were used. Comparison of these selected indices allowed determination of temporal differences among the six 11-water-year periods for each gaging station. The lower Platte River basin was affected by moderate to severe drought conditions in the 1934?44 period. The widespread drought was preceded by mildly to moderately wet conditions in the 1895?1906 period, followed by incipient drought to incipiently wet conditions in the 1951?61 periods and mildly wet conditions in 1966?76 period, moderately wet conditions in the 1985?1995 period, and incipient drought to mildly wet conditions in the 1996?2006 period. Monthly streamflow of the Platte River from Duncan through Louisville, Nebraska, correlated significantly with the monthly Palmer Hydrological Drought Index. Temporal differences in median values of monthly-mean and monthly-maximum streamflow measured at Duncan, North Bend, and Ashland stations between the two moderately wet periods (1895?1905 and 1985?95) indicated that streamflow storage reservoirs and regulation some time after 1906 significantly reduced monthly streamflow magnitude and amplitude?the difference between the highest and lowest median values of monthly mean streamflow. Effects of storage reservoirs on the median values of monthly-minimum streamflow were less obvious. Temporal differences among the other five periods, from 1934 through 2006 when streamflow was affected by storage and regulation, indicated the predominant effects of contrasting climate conditions on median values of monthly mean, maximum, and minimum streamflow. Significant temporal differences in monthly streamflow values were evident mainly between the two periods of greatly

Hydro-Climatic Data Network (HCDN) Streamflow Data Set, 1874-1988

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slack, James Richard; Lumb, Alan M.; Landwehr, Jurate Maciunas

1993-01-01

The potential consequences of climate change to continental water resources are of great concern in the management of those resources. Critically important to society is what effect fluctuations in the prevailing climate may have on hydrologic conditions, such as the occurrence and magnitude of floods or droughts and the seasonal distribution of water supplies within a region. Records of streamflow that are unaffected by artificial diversions, storage, or other works of man in or on the natural stream channels or in the watershed can provide an account of hydrologic responses to fluctuations in climate. By examining such records given known past meteorologic conditions, we can better understand hydrologic responses to those conditions and anticipate the effects of postulated changes in current climate regimes. Furthermore, patterns in streamflow records can indicate when a change in the prevailing climate regime may have occurred in the past, even in the absence of concurrent meteorologic records. A streamflow data set, which is specifically suitable for the study of surface-water conditions throughout the United States under fluctuations in the prevailing climatic conditions, has been developed. This data set, called the Hydro-Climatic Data Network, or HCDN, consists of streamflow records for 1,659 sites throughout United States and its Territories. Records cumulatively span the period 1874 through 1988, inclusive, and represent a total of 73,231 water years of information. Development of the HCDN Data Set: Records for the HCDN were obtained through a comprehensive search of the extensive surface- water data holdings of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), which are contained in the USGS National Water Storage and Retrieval System (WATSTORE). All streamflow discharge records in WATSTORE through September 30, 1988, were examined for inclusion in the HCDN in accordance with strictly defined criteria of measurement accuracy and natural conditions. No reconstructed records of 'natural flow' were permitted, nor was any record extended or had missing values 'filled in' using computational algorithms. If the streamflow at a station was judged to be free of controls for only a part of the entire period of record that is available for the station, then only that part was included in the HCDN, but only if it was of sufficient length (generally 20 years) to warrant inclusion. In addition to the daily mean discharge values, complete station identification information and basin characteristics were retrieved from WATSTORE for inclusion in the HCDN. Statistical characteristics, including the monthly mean discharge, as well as the annual mean, minimum and maximum discharge values, were derived for the records in the HCDN data set. For a full description of the development and content of the Hydro-Climatic Data Network, please take a look at the HCDN Report.

Streamflow and nutrient dependence of temperature effects on dissolved oxygen in low-order forest streams

Treesearch

April Mason; Y. Jun Xu; Philip Saksa; Adrienne Viosca; Johnny M. Grace; John Beebe; Richard Stich

2007-01-01

Low dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations in streams can be linked to both natural conditions and human activities. In Louisiana, natural stream conditions such as low flow, high temperature and high organic content, often result in DO levels already below current water quality criteria, making it difficult to develop standards for Best Management Practices (BMPs)....

Variation of froude number with discharge for large-gradient steams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wahl, Kenneth L.; ,

1993-01-01

Under chemical-control conditions, the Froude number (f) for a cross-section can be approximated as a function of the ratio R2/ 3/d 1/2 , where R is the hydraulic radius and d is the average depth. For cross sections where the ratio increases with increasing depth, F can also increase with depth Current-meter measurement data for 433 streamflow gaging stations in Colorado were reviewed, and 62 stations were identified at which F increases with depth of flow. Data for four streamflow gaging stations are presented. In some cases, F approaches 1 as the discharge approaches the magnitude of the median annual peak discharge. The data also indicate that few actual current meter measurement have been made at the large discharges where velocities can be supercritical.

Regional regression equations for the estimation of selected monthly low-flow duration and frequency statistics at ungaged sites on streams in New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watson, Kara M.; McHugh, Amy R.

2014-01-01

Regional regression equations were developed for estimating monthly flow-duration and monthly low-flow frequency statistics for ungaged streams in Coastal Plain and non-coastal regions of New Jersey for baseline and current land- and water-use conditions. The equations were developed to estimate 87 different streamflow statistics, which include the monthly 99-, 90-, 85-, 75-, 50-, and 25-percentile flow-durations of the minimum 1-day daily flow; the August–September 99-, 90-, and 75-percentile minimum 1-day daily flow; and the monthly 7-day, 10-year (M7D10Y) low-flow frequency. These 87 streamflow statistics were computed for 41 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages) with 20 or more years of record and 167 low-flow partial-record stations in New Jersey with 10 or more streamflow measurements. The regression analyses used to develop equations to estimate selected streamflow statistics were performed by testing the relation between flow-duration statistics and low-flow frequency statistics for 32 basin characteristics (physical characteristics, land use, surficial geology, and climate) at the 41 streamgages and 167 low-flow partial-record stations. The regression analyses determined drainage area, soil permeability, average April precipitation, average June precipitation, and percent storage (water bodies and wetlands) were the significant explanatory variables for estimating the selected flow-duration and low-flow frequency statistics. Streamflow estimates were computed for two land- and water-use conditions in New Jersey—land- and water-use during the baseline period of record (defined as the years a streamgage had little to no change in development and water use) and current land- and water-use conditions (1989–2008)—for each selected station using data collected through water year 2008. The baseline period of record is representative of a period when the basin was unaffected by change in development. The current period is representative of the increased development of the last 20 years (1989–2008). The two different land- and water-use conditions were used as surrogates for development to determine whether there have been changes in low-flow statistics as a result of changes in development over time. The State was divided into two low-flow regression regions, the Coastal Plain and the non-coastal region, in order to improve the accuracy of the regression equations. The left-censored parametric survival regression method was used for the analyses to account for streamgages and partial-record stations that had zero flow values for some of the statistics. The average standard error of estimate for the 348 regression equations ranged from 16 to 340 percent. These regression equations and basin characteristics are presented in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) StreamStats Web-based geographic information system application. This tool allows users to click on an ungaged site on a stream in New Jersey and get the estimated flow-duration and low-flow frequency statistics. Additionally, the user can click on a streamgage or partial-record station and get the “at-site” streamflow statistics. The low-flow characteristics of a stream ultimately affect the use of the stream by humans. Specific information on the low-flow characteristics of streams is essential to water managers who deal with problems related to municipal and industrial water supply, fish and wildlife conservation, and dilution of wastewater.

Streamflow distribution maps for the Cannon River drainage basin, southeast Minnesota, and the St. Louis River drainage basin, northeast Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Erik A.; Sanocki, Chris A.; Lorenz, David L.; Jacobsen, Katrin E.

2017-12-27

Streamflow distribution maps for the Cannon River and St. Louis River drainage basins were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Legislative-Citizen Commission on Minnesota Resources, to illustrate relative and cumulative streamflow distributions. The Cannon River was selected to provide baseline data to assess the effects of potential surficial sand mining, and the St. Louis River was selected to determine the effects of ongoing Mesabi Iron Range mining. Each drainage basin (Cannon, St. Louis) was subdivided into nested drainage basins: the Cannon River was subdivided into 152 nested drainage basins, and the St. Louis River was subdivided into 353 nested drainage basins. For each smaller drainage basin, the estimated volumes of groundwater discharge (as base flow) and surface runoff flowing into all surface-water features were displayed under the following conditions: (1) extreme low-flow conditions, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.95; (2) low-flow conditions, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.90; (3) a median condition, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.50; and (4) a high-flow condition, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.02.Streamflow distribution maps were developed using flow-duration curve exceedance-probability quantiles in conjunction with Soil-Water-Balance model outputs; both the flow-duration curve and Soil-Water-Balance models were built upon previously published U.S. Geological Survey reports. The selected streamflow distribution maps provide a proactive water management tool for State cooperators by illustrating flow rates during a range of hydraulic conditions. Furthermore, after the nested drainage basins are highlighted in terms of surface-water flows, the streamflows can be evaluated in the context of meeting specific ecological flows under different flow regimes and potentially assist with decisions regarding groundwater and surface-water appropriations. Presented streamflow distribution maps are foundational work intended to support the development of additional streamflow distribution maps that include statistical constraints on the selected flow conditions.

The relationship between groundwater ages, streamflow ages, and storage selection functions under stationary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berghuijs, W.; Kirchner, J. W.

2017-12-01

Waters in aquifers are often much older than the streamwaters that drain them. Simple physically based reasoning suggests that these age contrasts should be expected wherever catchments are heterogeneous. However, a general quantitative catchment-scale explanation of these age contrasts remains elusive. We show that under stationary conditions conservation of mass and age dictate that the age distribution of water stored in a catchment can be directly estimated from the age distribution of its outflows, and vice versa. This in turn implies that the catchment's preference for the release or retention of waters of different ages can be estimated directly from the age distribution of outflow under stationary conditions. Using simple models of transit times, we show that the mean age of stored water can range from half as old as the mean age of streamflow (for plug flow conditions) to almost infinitely older (for strongly preferential flow). Streamflow age distributions reported in the literature often have long upper tails, consistent with preferential flow and implying that storage ages are substantially older than streamflow ages. Mean streamflow ages reported in the literature imply that most streamflow originates from a thin veneer of total groundwater storage. This preferential release of young streamflow implies that most groundwater is exchanged only slowly with the surface, and consequently must be very old. Where information is available for both storage ages and streamflow ages, our analysis establishes consistency relationships through which each could be used to better constrain the other. By quantifying the relationship between groundwater and streamflow ages, our analysis provides tools to jointly assess both of these important catchment properties.

Effects of future climate conditions on terrestrial export from coastal southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, D.; Zhao, Y.; Raoufi, R.; Beighley, E.; Melack, J. M.

2015-12-01

The Santa Barbara Coastal - Long Term Ecological Research Project (SBC-LTER) is focused on investigating the relative importance of land and ocean processes in structuring giant kelp forest ecosystems. Understanding how current and future climate conditions influence terrestrial export is a central theme for the project. Here we combine the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model and daily precipitation and temperature downscaled using statistical downscaling based on localized constructed Analogs (LOCA) to estimate recent streamflow dynamics (2000 to 2014) and future conditions (2015 to 2100). The HRR model covers the SBC-LTER watersheds from just west of the Ventura River to Point Conception; a land area of roughly 800 km2 with 179 watersheds ranging from 0.1 to 123 km2. The downscaled climate conditions have a spatial resolution of 6 km by 6 km. Here, we use the Penman-Monteith method with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) limited climate data approximations and land surface conditions (albedo, leaf area index, land cover) measured from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua satellites to estimate potential evapotranspiration (PET). The HRR model is calibrated for the period 2000 to 2014 using USGS and LTER streamflow. An automated calibration technique is used. For future climate scenarios, we use mean 8-day land cover conditions. Future streamflow, ET and soil moisture statistics are presented and based on downscaled P and T from ten climate model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5).

Tropical Montane Cloud Forests: Hydrometeorological variability in three neighbouring catchments with different forest cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramírez, Beatriz H.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Ganzeveld, Laurens; Hegger, Zita; Leemans, Rik

2017-09-01

Mountain areas are characterized by a large heterogeneity in hydrological and meteorological conditions. This heterogeneity is currently poorly represented by gauging networks and by the coarse scale of global and regional climate and hydrological models. Tropical Montane Cloud Forests (TMCFs) are found in a narrow elevation range and are characterized by persistent fog. Their water balance depends on local and upwind temperatures and moisture, therefore, changes in these parameters will alter TMCF hydrology. Until recently the hydrological functioning of TMCFs was mainly studied in coastal regions, while continental TMCFs were largely ignored. This study contributes to fill this gap by focusing on a TMCF which is located on the northern eastern Andes at an elevation of 1550-2300 m asl, in the Orinoco river basin highlands. In this study, we describe the spatial and seasonal meteorological variability, analyse the corresponding catchment hydrological response to different land cover, and perform a sensitivity analysis on uncertainties related to rainfall interpolation, catchment area estimation and streamflow measurements. Hydro-meteorological measurements, including hourly solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow, were collected from June 2013 to May 2014 at three gauged neighbouring catchments with contrasting TMCF/grassland cover and less than 250 m elevation difference. We found wetter and less seasonally contrasting conditions at higher elevations, indicating a positive relation between elevation and fog or rainfall persistence. This pattern is similar to that of other eastern Andean TMCFs, however, the study site had higher wet season rainfall and lower dry season rainfall suggesting that upwind contrasts in land cover and moisture can influence the meteorological conditions at eastern Andean TMCFs. Contrasting streamflow dynamics between the studied catchments reflect the overall system response as a function of the catchments' elevation and land cover. The forested catchment, located at the higher elevations, had the highest seasonal streamflows. During the wet season, different land covers at the lower elevations were important in defining the streamflow responses between the deforested catchment and the catchment with intermediate forest cover. Streamflows were higher and the rainfall-runoff responses were faster in the deforested catchment than in the intermediate forest cover catchment. During the dry season, the catchments' elevation defined streamflows due to higher water inputs and lower evaporative demand at the higher elevations.

Hydrogeology and Simulated Effects of Ground-Water Withdrawals in the Big River Area, Rhode Island

USGS Publications Warehouse

Granato, Gregory E.; Barlow, Paul M.; Dickerman, David C.

2003-01-01

The Rhode Island Water Resources Board is considering expanded use of ground-water resources from the Big River area because increasing water demands in Rhode Island may exceed the capacity of current sources. This report describes the hydrology of the area and numerical simulation models that were used to examine effects of ground-water withdrawals during 1964?98 and to describe potential effects of different withdrawal scenarios in the area. The Big River study area covers 35.7 square miles (mi2) and includes three primary surface-water drainage basins?the Mishnock River Basin above Route 3, the Big River Basin, and the Carr River Basin, which is a tributary to the Big River. The principal aquifer (referred to as the surficial aquifer) in the study area, which is defined as the area of stratified deposits with a saturated thickness estimated to be 10 feet or greater, covers an area of 10.9 mi2. On average, an estimated 75 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) of water flows through the study area and about 70 ft3/s flows out of the area as streamflow in either the Big River (about 63 ft3/s) or the Mishnock River (about 7 ft3/s). Numerical simulation models are used to describe the hydrology of the area under simulated predevelopment conditions, conditions during 1964?98, and conditions that might occur in 14 hypothetical ground-water withdrawal scenarios with total ground-water withdrawal rates in the area that range from 2 to 11 million gallons per day. Streamflow depletion caused by these hypothetical ground-water withdrawals is calculated by comparison with simulated flows for the predevelopment conditions, which are identical to simulated conditions during the 1964?98 period but without withdrawals at public-supply wells and wastewater recharge. Interpretation of numerical simulation results indicates that the three basins in the study area are in fact a single ground-water resource. For example, the Carr River Basin above Capwell Mill Pond is naturally losing water to the Mishnock River Basin. Withdrawals in the Carr River Basin can deplete streamflows in the Mishnock River Basin. Withdrawals in the Mishnock River Basin deplete streamflows in the Big River Basin and can intercept water flowing to the Flat River Reservoir North of Hill Farm Road in Coventry, Rhode Island. Withdrawals in the Big River Basin can deplete streamflows in the western unnamed tributary to the Carr River, but do not deplete streamflows in the Mishnock River Basin or in the Carr River upstream of Capwell Mill Pond. Because withdrawals deplete streamflows in the study area, the total amount of ground water that may be withdrawn for public supply depends on the minimum allowable streamflow criterion that is applied for each basin.

Evaluation of potential impacts of climate change and water management on streamflow in the Rovuma River, Mozambique and Tanzania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minihane, M.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2012-12-01

Economic development and public health are tied to water resources development in many parts of the world. Effective use of water management infrastructure investments requires projections of future climatic and water use conditions. This is particularly true in developing countries. We explore in this work water resource availability in the Rovuma River, which lies in a sparsely-populated region of southeastern Africa, on the border of Mozambique and Tanzania. While there are only limited documented observations of flow of the Rovuma River and it's tributaries, particularly in recent years, there is widespread interest in development of the water resources of the region. The national governments are interested in hydropower potential while private companies, many of them large multinational organizations, have started irrigation programs to increase agricultural output. While the Mozambique and Tanzania governments have a joint agreement over the river development, there is a need to assess both current and potential future water resource conditions in the basin. The sustainability of these developments, however, may be affected by climate change. Here we quantify potential changes in streamflow in the Rovuma River under dry and wet climate projection scenarios using the delta method and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro-scale hydrology model. We then evaluate streamflow changes relative to water withdrawals required for a range of irrigated agriculture scenarios. Our analysis is intended to be a starting point for planners to consider potential impacts of both streamflow withdrawal permits (for irrigated agriculture) and future uncertain climate conditions.

Transit losses and traveltimes for water-supply releases Marion Lake during drought conditions, Cottonwood River, east-central Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jordan, P.R.; Hart, R.J.

1985-01-01

A streamflow routing model was used to calculate the transit losses and traveltimes. Channel and aquifer characteristics, and the model control parameters, were estimated from available data and then verified to the extent possible by comparing model simulated streamflow to observed streamflow at streamflow gaging stations. Transit losses and traveltimes for varying reservoir release rates and durations then were simulated for two different antecedent streamflow (drought) conditions. For the severe-drought antecedent-streamflow condition, it was assumed that only the downstream water use requirement would be released from the reservoir. For a less severe drought (LSD) antecedent streamflow condition, it was assumed than any releases from Marion Lake for water supply use downstream, would be in addition to a nominal dry weather release of 5 cu ft/sec. Water supply release rates of 10 and 25 cu ft/sec for the severe drought condition and 5, 10, and 25 cu ft/sec for the less severe drought condition were simulated for periods of 28 and 183 days commencing on July 1. Transit losses for the severe drought condition for all reservoir release rates and durations ranged from 12% to 78% of the maximum downstream flow rate and from 27% to 91% of the total volume of reservoir storage released. For the LSD condition, transit losses ranged from 7% to 29% of the maximum downstream flow rate and from 10% to 48% of the total volume of release. The 183-day releases had larger total transit losses, but losses on a percentage basis were less than the losses for the 28-day release period for both antecedent streamflow conditions. Traveltimes to full response (80% of the maximum downstream flow rate), however, showed considerable variation. For the release of 5 cu ft/sec during LSD conditions, base flow exceeded 80% of the maximum flow rate near the confluence; the traveltime to full response was undefined for those simulations. For the releases of 10 and 25 cu ft/sec during the same drought condition, traveltimes to full response ranged from 4.4 to 6.5 days. For releases of 10 and 25 cu ft/sec during severe drought conditions, traveltimes to full response near the confluence with the Neosho River ranged from 8.3 to 93 days. (Lantz-PTT)

Adjusting Wavelet-based Multiresolution Analysis Boundary Conditions for Robust Long-term Streamflow Forecasting Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maslova, I.; Ticlavilca, A. M.; McKee, M.

2012-12-01

There has been an increased interest in wavelet-based streamflow forecasting models in recent years. Often overlooked in this approach are the circularity assumptions of the wavelet transform. We propose a novel technique for minimizing the wavelet decomposition boundary condition effect to produce long-term, up to 12 months ahead, forecasts of streamflow. A simulation study is performed to evaluate the effects of different wavelet boundary rules using synthetic and real streamflow data. A hybrid wavelet-multivariate relevance vector machine model is developed for forecasting the streamflow in real-time for Yellowstone River, Uinta Basin, Utah, USA. The inputs of the model utilize only the past monthly streamflow records. They are decomposed into components formulated in terms of wavelet multiresolution analysis. It is shown that the model model accuracy can be increased by using the wavelet boundary rule introduced in this study. This long-term streamflow modeling and forecasting methodology would enable better decision-making and managing water availability risk.

National Streamflow Information Program: Implementation Status Report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norris, J. Michael

2009-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operates and maintains a nationwide network of about 7,500 streamgages designed to provide and interpret long-term, accurate, and unbiased streamflow information to meet the multiple needs of many diverse national, regional, state, and local users. The National Streamflow Information Program (NSIP) was initiated in 2003 in response to Congressional and stakeholder concerns about (1) the decrease in the number of operating streamgages, including a disproportionate loss of streamgages with a long period of record; (2) the inability of the USGS to continue operating high-priority streamgages in an environment of reduced funding through partnerships; and (3) the increasing demand for streamflow information due to emerging resource-management issues and new data-delivery capabilities. The NSIP's mission is to provide the streamflow information and understanding required to meet national, regional, state, and local needs. Most of the existing streamgages are funded through partnerships with more than 850 other Federal, state, tribal, and local agencies. Currently, about 90 percent of the streamgages send data to the World Wide Web in near-real time (some information is transmitted within 15 minutes, whereas some lags by about 4 hours). The streamflow information collected at USGS streamgages is used for many purposes: *In water-resource appraisals and allocations - to determine how much water is available and how it is being allocated; *To provide streamflow information required by interstate agreements, compacts, and court decrees; *For engineering design of reservoirs, bridges, roads, culverts, and treatment plants; *For the operation of reservoirs, the operation of locks and dams for navigation purposes, and power production; *To identify changes in streamflow resulting from changes in land use, water use, and climate; *For streamflow forecasting, flood planning, and flood forecasting; *To support water-quality programs by allowing determination of constituent loads and fluxes; and *For characterizing and evaluating instream conditions for habitat assessments, instream-flow requirements, and recreation.

Hydrogeologic Setting and Ground-Water Flow in the Leetown Area, West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kozar, Mark D.; Weary, David J.; Paybins, Katherine S.; Pierce, Herbert A.

2007-01-01

The Leetown Science Center is a research facility operated by the U.S. Geological Survey that occupies approximately 455-acres near Kearneysville, Jefferson County, West Virginia. Aquatic and fish research conducted at the Center requires adequate supplies of high-quality, cold ground water. Three large springs and three production wells currently (in 2006) supply water to the Center. The recent construction of a second research facility (National Center for Cool and Cold Water Aquaculture) operated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and co-located on Center property has placed additional demands on available water resources in the area. A three-dimensional steady-state finite-difference ground-water flow model was developed to simulate ground-water flow in the Leetown area and was used to assess the availability of ground water to sustain current and anticipated future demands. The model also was developed to test a conceptual model of ground-water flow in the complex karst aquifer system in the Leetown area. Due to the complexity of the karst aquifer system, a multidisciplinary research study was required to define the hydrogeologic setting. Geologic mapping, surface- and borehole-geophysical surveys, stream base-flow surveys, and aquifer tests were conducted to provide the hydrogeologic data necessary to develop and calibrate the model. It would not have been possible to develop a numerical model of the study area without the intensive data collection and methods developments components of the larger, more comprehensive hydrogeologic investigation. Results of geologic mapping and surface-geophysical surveys verified the presence of several prominent thrust faults and identified additional faults and other complex geologic structures (including overturned anticlines and synclines) in the area. These geologic structures are known to control ground-water flow in the region. Results of this study indicate that cross-strike faults and fracture zones are major avenues of ground-water flow. Prior to this investigation, the conceptual model of ground-water flow for the region focused primarily on bedding planes and strike-parallel faults and joints as controls on ground-water flow but did not recognize the importance of cross-strike faults and fracture zones that allow ground water to flow downgradient across or through less permeable geologic formations. Results of the ground-water flow simulation indicate that current operations at the Center do not substantially affect either streamflow (less than a 5-percent reduction in annual streamflow) or ground-water levels in the Leetown area under normal climatic conditions but potentially could have greater effects on streamflow during long-term drought (reduction in streamflow of approximately 14 percent). On the basis of simulation results, ground-water withdrawals based on the anticipated need for an additional 150 to 200 gal/min (gallons per minute) of water at the Center also would not seriously affect streamflow (less than 8 to 9 percent reduction in streamflow) or ground-water levels in the area during normal climatic conditions. During drought conditions, however, the effects of current ground-water withdrawals and anticipated additional withdrawals of 150 to 200 gal/min to augment existing supplies result in moderate to substantial declines in water levels of 0.5-1.2 feet (ft) in the vicinity of the Center's springs and production wells. Streamflow was predicted to be reduced locally by approximately 21 percent. Such withdrawals during a drought or prolonged period of below normal ground-water levels would result in substantial declines in the flow of the Center's springs and likely would not be sustainable for more than a few months. The drought simulated in this model was roughly equivalent to the more than 1-year drought that affected the region from November 1998 through February 2000. The potential reduction in streamflow is a result of capture of ground water tha

Evaluation of meteorological drought indices for streamflow modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haslinger, Klaus; Koffler, Daniel; Blöschl, Günter; Parajka, Juraj; Schöner, Wolfgang; Laaha, Gregor

2013-04-01

In this paper we present a comprehensive analysis which aims to link various meteorological drought indices to streamflow data in Austria and Central Europe. The motivation arises from the fact that discharge time series are usually shorter (beginning in the middle of the 20th century) than meteorological time series. In the European Greater Alpine Region we are fortunate of having a gridded dataset for temperature and solid/liquid precipitation on a monthly time scale that spans from 1801 to 2003 - the HISTALP database. If there is a link between meteorological drought indices and streamflow, a reconstruction of streamflow, with emphasis on low flows, will be possible for the last 200 years. As meteorological drought indices the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) on various time scales as well as the moisture departure value d from the soil moisture modeling procedure of the scPDSI are used. The analysis focuses on three aspects, (i) temporal co-evolution of meteorological drought and streamflow indices, (ii) their at-site correlation at gauges, and (iii) their regional correlation structure depending on different climate and catchment conditions. The whole analysis is stratified by seasons, what allows us to explore the strength of the link for the dominant low flow generating process. In order to show a connection between these indices and streamflow data the drought event of 2003 serves as a reference. We will show the temporal evolution of the drought indices parallel to streamflow indices like MQ, Q95 and MAM(7) for the period from summer 2002, which encompasses a major flood event in the northern parts of Austria, to fall 2003 when the streamflow drought was most severe. This is carried out for different regions in Austria, representing different climatic and soil-specific characteristics. To quantify the link between drought indices and streamflow indices for the whole time series from 1801-2003, rank correlations are calculated, stratified by three different approaches. First, as mentioned above, a regional assessment is carried out. Second, the correlations are calculated separately for seasons (DJF, MAM, JJA, and SON). Third, different quantiles of the streamflow-data, ranging from Q50 to Q95, will be correlated with the drought indices. The results show that there is definitely a strong connection between the MQ and the scPDSI in one target region in the Northwest of Austria. The results are encouraging for further attempts to reconstruct extreme low flow events from meteorological data only. A statistical model for linking meteorological drought indices with streamflow under dry conditions is currently under development and results will be presented in the near future.

A precipitation-runoff model for the analysis of the effects of water withdrawals and land-use change on streamflow in the Usquepaug-Queen River Basin, Rhode Island

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zarriello, Phillip J.; Bent, Gardner C.

2004-01-01

The 36.1-square-mile UsquepaugQueen River Basin in south-central Rhode Island is an important water resource. Streamflow records indicate that withdrawals may have diminished flows enough to affect aquatic habitat. Concern over the effect of withdrawals on streamflow and aquatic habitat prompted the development of a Hydrologic Simulation ProgramFORTRAN (HSPF) model to evaluate the water-management alternatives and land-use change in the basin. Climate, streamflow, and water-use data were collected to support the model development. A logistic-regression equation was developed for long-term simulations to predict the likelihood of irrigation, the primary water use in the basin, from antecedent potential evapotranspiration and precipitation for generating irrigation demands. The HSPF model represented the basin by 13 pervious-area and 2 impervious-area land-use segments and 20 stream reaches. The model was calibrated to the period January 1, 2000 to September 30, 2001, at three continuous streamflow-gaging stations that monitor flow from 10, 54, and 100 percent of the basin drainage area. Hydrographs and flow-duration curves of observed and simulated discharges, along with statistics compiled for various model-fit metrics, indicate a satisfactory model performance. The calibrated HSPF model was modified to evaluate streamflow (1) under no withdrawals to streamflow under current (200001) withdrawal conditions under long-term (19602001) climatic conditions, (2) under withdrawals by the former Ladd School water-supply wells, and (3) under fully developed land use. The effects of converting from direct-stream withdrawals to ground-water withdrawals were evaluated outside of the HSPF model by use of the STRMDEPL program, which calculates the time delayed response of ground-water withdrawals on streamflow depletion. Simulated effects of current withdrawals relative to no withdrawals indicate about a 20-percent decrease in the lowest mean daily streamflows at the basin outlet, but withdrawals have little effect on flows that are exceeded less than about 90 percent of the time. Tests of alternative model structures to evaluate model uncertainty indicate that the lowest mean daily flows ranged between 3 and 5 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) without withdrawals and 2.2 to 4 ft3/s with withdrawals. Changes in the minimum daily streamflows are more pronounced, however; at the upstream streamflow-gaging station, a minimum daily flow of 0.2 ft3/s was sustained without withdrawals, but simulations with withdrawals indicate that the reach would stop flowing part of a day about 5 percent of the time. The effect on streamflow of potential ground-water withdrawals of 0.20, 0.90, and 1.78 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) at the former Ladd School near the central part of the basin were evaluated. The lowest daily mean flows in model reach 3, the main stem of the Queen River closest to the pumped wells, decreased by about 50 percent for withdrawals of 0.20 Mgal/d (from about 0.4 to 0.2 ft3/s) in comparison to current withdrawals. Reach 3 would occasionally stop flowing during part of the day at the 0.20-Mgal/d withdrawal rate because of diurnal fluctuation in streamflow. The higher withdrawal rates (0.90 and 1.78 Mgal/d) would cause reach 3 to stop flowing about 10 to 20 percent of the time, but the effects of pumping rapidly diminished downstream because of tributary inflows. Simulation results indicate little change in the annual 1-, 7-, and 30-day low flows at the 0.20 Mgal/d pumping rate, but at the 1.78 Mgal/d pumping rate, reach 3 stopped flowing for nearly a 7-day period every year and for a 30-day period about every other year. At the 0.90 Mgal/d pumping rate, reach 3 stopped flowing about every other year for a 7-day period and about once every 5 years for a 30-day period. Land-use change was simulated by converting model hydrologic-response units (HRUs) representing undeveloped areas to HRUs representing developed areas o

A framework for improving a seasonal hydrological forecasting system using sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnal, Louise; Pappenberger, Florian; Smith, Paul; Cloke, Hannah

2017-04-01

Seasonal streamflow forecasts are of great value for the socio-economic sector, for applications such as navigation, flood and drought mitigation and reservoir management for hydropower generation and water allocation to agriculture and drinking water. However, as we speak, the performance of dynamical seasonal hydrological forecasting systems (systems based on running seasonal meteorological forecasts through a hydrological model to produce seasonal hydrological forecasts) is still limited in space and time. In this context, the ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) remains an attractive forecasting method for seasonal streamflow forecasting as it relies on forcing a hydrological model (starting from the latest observed or simulated initial hydrological conditions) with historical meteorological observations. This makes it cheaper to run than a standard dynamical seasonal hydrological forecasting system, for which the seasonal meteorological forecasts will first have to be produced, while still producing skilful forecasts. There is thus the need to focus resources and time towards improvements in dynamical seasonal hydrological forecasting systems which will eventually lead to significant improvements in the skill of the streamflow forecasts generated. Sensitivity analyses are a powerful tool that can be used to disentangle the relative contributions of the two main sources of errors in seasonal streamflow forecasts, namely the initial hydrological conditions (IHC; e.g., soil moisture, snow cover, initial streamflow, among others) and the meteorological forcing (MF; i.e., seasonal meteorological forecasts of precipitation and temperature, input to the hydrological model). Sensitivity analyses are however most useful if they inform and change current operational practices. To this end, we propose a method to improve the design of a seasonal hydrological forecasting system. This method is based on sensitivity analyses, informing the forecasters as to which element of the forecasting chain (i.e., IHC or MF) could potentially lead to the highest increase in seasonal hydrological forecasting performance, after each forecast update.

Streamflow statistics for unregulated and regulated conditions for selected locations on the Upper Yellowstone and Bighorn Rivers, Montana and Wyoming, 1928-2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, Katherine J.

2014-01-01

Major floods in 1996 and 1997 intensified public debate about the effects of human activities on the Yellowstone River. In 1999, the Yellowstone River Conservation District Council was formed to address conservation issues on the river. The Yellowstone River Conservation District Council partnered with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to carry out a cumulative effects study on the main stem of the Yellowstone River. The cumulative effects study is intended to provide a basis for future management decisions within the watershed. Streamflow statistics, such as flow-frequency data calculated for unregulated and regulated streamflow conditions, are a necessary component of the cumulative effects study. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Yellowstone River Conservation District Council and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, calculated low-flow frequency data and general monthly and annual statistics for unregulated and regulated streamflow conditions for the Upper Yellowstone and Bighorn Rivers for the 1928–2002 study period; these data are presented in this report. Unregulated streamflow represents flow conditions during the 1928–2002 study period if there had been no water-resources development in the Yellowstone River Basin. Regulated streamflow represents estimates of flow conditions during the 1928–2002 study period if the level of water-resources development existing in 2002 was in place during the entire study period.

Modeling summer month hydrological drought probabilities in the United States using antecedent flow conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.; Nelms, David L.

2017-01-01

Climate change raises concern that risks of hydrological drought may be increasing. We estimate hydrological drought probabilities for rivers and streams in the United States (U.S.) using maximum likelihood logistic regression (MLLR). Streamflow data from winter months are used to estimate the chance of hydrological drought during summer months. Daily streamflow data collected from 9,144 stream gages from January 1, 1884 through January 9, 2014 provide hydrological drought streamflow probabilities for July, August, and September as functions of streamflows during October, November, December, January, and February, estimating outcomes 5-11 months ahead of their occurrence. Few drought prediction methods exploit temporal links among streamflows. We find MLLR modeling of drought streamflow probabilities exploits the explanatory power of temporally linked water flows. MLLR models with strong correct classification rates were produced for streams throughout the U.S. One ad hoc test of correct prediction rates of September 2013 hydrological droughts exceeded 90% correct classification. Some of the best-performing models coincide with areas of high concern including the West, the Midwest, Texas, the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Using hydrological drought MLLR probability estimates in a water management context can inform understanding of drought streamflow conditions, provide warning of future drought conditions, and aid water management decision making.

Two Topics in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting: Soil Moisture Initialization Error and Precipitation Downscaling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal; Walker, Greg; Mahanama, Sarith; Reichle, Rolf

2012-01-01

Continental-scale offline simulations with a land surface model are used to address two important issues in the forecasting of large-scale seasonal streamflow: (i) the extent to which errors in soil moisture initialization degrade streamflow forecasts, and (ii) the extent to which the downscaling of seasonal precipitation forecasts, if it could be done accurately, would improve streamflow forecasts. The reduction in streamflow forecast skill (with forecasted streamflow measured against observations) associated with adding noise to a soil moisture field is found to be, to first order, proportional to the average reduction in the accuracy of the soil moisture field itself. This result has implications for streamflow forecast improvement under satellite-based soil moisture measurement programs. In the second and more idealized ("perfect model") analysis, precipitation downscaling is found to have an impact on large-scale streamflow forecasts only if two conditions are met: (i) evaporation variance is significant relative to the precipitation variance, and (ii) the subgrid spatial variance of precipitation is adequately large. In the large-scale continental region studied (the conterminous United States), these two conditions are met in only a somewhat limited area.

Regional regression equations for estimation of natural streamflow statistics in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Capesius, Joseph P.; Stephens, Verlin C.

2009-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board and the Colorado Department of Transportation, developed regional regression equations for estimation of various streamflow statistics that are representative of natural streamflow conditions at ungaged sites in Colorado. The equations define the statistical relations between streamflow statistics (response variables) and basin and climatic characteristics (predictor variables). The equations were developed using generalized least-squares and weighted least-squares multilinear regression reliant on logarithmic variable transformation. Streamflow statistics were derived from at least 10 years of streamflow data through about 2007 from selected USGS streamflow-gaging stations in the study area that are representative of natural-flow conditions. Basin and climatic characteristics used for equation development are drainage area, mean watershed elevation, mean watershed slope, percentage of drainage area above 7,500 feet of elevation, mean annual precipitation, and 6-hour, 100-year precipitation. For each of five hydrologic regions in Colorado, peak-streamflow equations that are based on peak-streamflow data from selected stations are presented for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year instantaneous-peak streamflows. For four of the five hydrologic regions, equations based on daily-mean streamflow data from selected stations are presented for 7-day minimum 2-, 10-, and 50-year streamflows and for 7-day maximum 2-, 10-, and 50-year streamflows. Other equations presented for the same four hydrologic regions include those for estimation of annual- and monthly-mean streamflow and streamflow-duration statistics for exceedances of 10, 25, 50, 75, and 90 percent. All equations are reported along with salient diagnostic statistics, ranges of basin and climatic characteristics on which each equation is based, and commentary of potential bias, which is not otherwise removed by log-transformation of the variables of the equations from interpretation of residual plots. The predictor-variable ranges can be used to assess equation applicability for ungaged sites in Colorado.

Real-time streamflow conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graczyk, David J.; Gebert, Warren A.

1996-01-01

Would you like to know streamflow conditions before you go fishing in Wisconsin or in more distant locations? Real-time streamflow data throughout Wisconsin and the United States are available on the Internet from the U.S. Geological Survey. You can see if the stream you are interested in fishing is high due to recent rain or low because of an extended dry spell. Flow conditions at more than 100 stream-gaging stations located throughout Wisconsin can be viewed by accessing the Wisconsin District Home Page at: http://wwwdwimdn.er.usgs.gov

Numerical simulation of groundwater flow for the Yakima River basin aquifer system, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ely, D.M.; Bachmann, M.P.; Vaccaro, J.J.

2011-01-01

Five applications (scenarios) of the model were completed to obtain a better understanding of the relation between pumpage and surface-water resources and groundwater levels. For the first three scenarios, the calibrated transient model was used to simulate conditions without: (1) pumpage from all hydrogeologic units, (2) pumpage from basalt hydrogeologic units, and (3) exempt-well pumpage. The simulation results indicated potential streamflow capture by the existing pumpage from 1960 through 2001. The quantity of streamflow capture generally was inversely related to the total quantity of pumpage eliminated in the model scenarios. For the fourth scenario, the model simulated 1994 through 2001 under existing conditions with additional pumpage estimated for pending groundwater applications. The differences between the calibrated model streamflow and this scenario indicated additional decreases in streamflow of 91 cubic feet per second in the model domain. Existing conditions representing 1994 through 2001 were projected through 2025 for the fifth scenario and indicated additional streamflow decreases of 38 cubic feet per second and groundwater-level declines.

Simulated Effects of Year 2030 Water-Use and Land-Use Changes on Streamflow near the Interstate-495 Corridor, Assabet and Upper Charles River Basins, Eastern Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carlson, Carl S.; Desimone, Leslie A.; Weiskel, Peter K.

2008-01-01

Continued population growth and land development for commercial, industrial, and residential uses have created concerns regarding the future supply of potable water and the quantity of ground water discharging to streams in the area of Interstate 495 in eastern Massachusetts. Two ground-water models developed in 2002-2004 for the Assabet and Upper Charles River Basins were used to simulate water supply and land-use scenarios relevant for the entire Interstate-495 corridor. Future population growth, water demands, and commercial and residential growth were projected for year 2030 by the Metropolitan Area Planning Council. To assess the effects of future development on subbasin streamflows, seven scenarios were simulated by using existing computer-based ground-water-flow models with the data projected for year 2030. The scenarios incorporate three categories of projected 2030 water- and land-use data: (1) 2030 water use, (2) 2030 land use, and (3) a combination of 2030 water use and 2030 land use. Hydrologic, land-use, and water-use data from 1997 through 2001 for the Assabet River Basin study and 1989 through 1998 for the Upper Charles River Basin study were used to represent current conditions - referred to as 'basecase' conditions - in each basin to which each 2030 scenario was compared. The effects of projected 2030 land- and water-use change on streamflows in the Assabet River Basin depended upon the time of year, the hydrologic position of the subbasin in the larger basin, and the relative areas of new commercial and residential development projected for a subbasin. Effects of water use and land use on streamflow were evaluated by comparing average monthly nonstorm streamflow (base flow) for March and September simulated by using the models. The greatest decreases in streamflow (up to 76 percent in one subbasin), compared to the basecase, occurred in September, when streamflows are naturally at their lowest level. By contrast, simulated March streamflows decreased less than 6.5 percent from basecase streamflows in all subbasins for all scenarios. The simulations showed similar effects in the Upper Charles River Basin, but increased water use contributed to decreased simulated streamflow in most subbasins. Simulated changes in March streamflows for 2030 in the Upper Charles River Basin were within +- 6 percent of the basecase for all scenarios and subbasins. Percentage decreases in simulated September streamflows for 2030 were greater than in March but less than the September decreases that resulted for some subbasins in the Assabet River Basin. Only two subbasins of the Upper Charles River Basin had projected decreases greater than 5 percent. In the Mill River subbasin, the decrease was 11 percent, and in the Mine Brook subbasin, 6.6 percent. Changes in water use and wastewater return flow generally were found to have the greatest effect in the summer months when streamflow and aquifer recharge rates are low and water use is high. September increases in main-stem streamflow of both basins were due mainly to increased discharge of treated effluent from wastewater-treatment facilities on the main-stem rivers. In the Assabet River Basin, wastewater-treatment-facility discharge became a smaller proportion of total streamflow with distance downstream. In contrast, wastewater-treatment facility discharge in the Upper Charles River Basin became a greater proportion of streamflow with distance downstream. The effects of sewer-line extension and low-impact development on streamflows in two different subbasins of the Assabet River Basin also were simulated. The result of extending sewer lines with a corresponding decrease in septic-system return flow caused September streamflows to decrease as much as 15 percent in the Fort Pond Brook subbasin. The effect of low-impact development was simulated in the Hop Brook subbasin in areas projected for commercial development. In this simulation, the greater the area where low-i

Data Assimilation using observed streamflow and remotely-sensed soil moisture for improving sub-seasonal-to-seasonal forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arumugam, S.; Mazrooei, A.; Lakshmi, V.; Wood, A.

2017-12-01

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts of soil moisture and streamflow provides critical information for water and agricultural systems to support short-term planning and mangement. This study evaluates the role of observed streamflow and remotely-sensed soil moisture from SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) mission in improving S2S streamflow and soil moisture forecasting using data assimilation (DA). We first show the ability to forecast soil moisture at monthly-to-seaasonal time scale by forcing climate forecasts with NASA's Land Information System and then compares the developed soil moisture forecast with the SMAP data over the Southeast US. Our analyses show significant skill in forecasting real-time soil moisture over 1-3 months using climate information. We also show that the developed soil moisture forecasts capture the observed severe drought conditions (2007-2008) over the Southeast US. Following that, we consider both SMAP data and observed streamflow for improving S2S streamflow and soil moisture forecasts for a pilot study area, Tar River basin, in NC. Towards this, we consider variational assimilation (VAR) of gauge-measured daily streamflow data in improving initial hydrologic conditions of Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The utility of data assimilation is then assessed in improving S2S forecasts of streamflow and soil moisture through a retrospective analyses. Furthermore, the optimal frequency of data assimilation and optimal analysis window (number of past observations to use) are also assessed in order to achieve the maximum improvement in S2S forecasts of streamflow and soil moisture. Potential utility of updating initial conditions using DA and providing skillful forcings are also discussed.

The Role of Multimodel Combination in Improving Streamflow Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arumugam, S.; Li, W.

2008-12-01

Model errors are the inevitable part in any prediction exercise. One approach that is currently gaining attention to reduce model errors is by optimally combining multiple models to develop improved predictions. The rationale behind this approach primarily lies on the premise that optimal weights could be derived for each model so that the developed multimodel predictions will result in improved predictability. In this study, we present a new approach to combine multiple hydrological models by evaluating their predictability contingent on the predictor state. We combine two hydrological models, 'abcd' model and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, with each model's parameter being estimated by two different objective functions to develop multimodel streamflow predictions. The performance of multimodel predictions is compared with individual model predictions using correlation, root mean square error and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient. To quantify precisely under what conditions the multimodel predictions result in improved predictions, we evaluate the proposed algorithm by testing it against streamflow generated from a known model ('abcd' model or VIC model) with errors being homoscedastic or heteroscedastic. Results from the study show that streamflow simulated from individual models performed better than multimodels under almost no model error. Under increased model error, the multimodel consistently performed better than the single model prediction in terms of all performance measures. The study also evaluates the proposed algorithm for streamflow predictions in two humid river basins from NC as well as in two arid basins from Arizona. Through detailed validation in these four sites, the study shows that multimodel approach better predicts the observed streamflow in comparison to the single model predictions.

Streamflow conditions along Soldier Creek, Northeast Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Juracek, Kyle E.

2017-11-14

The availability of adequate water to meet the present (2017) and future needs of humans, fish, and wildlife is a fundamental issue for the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation in northeast Kansas. Because Soldier Creek flows through the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation Reservation, it is an important tribal resource. An understanding of historical Soldier Creek streamflow conditions is required for the effective management of tribal water resources, including drought contingency planning. Historical data for six selected U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages along Soldier Creek were used in an assessment of streamflow characteristics and trends by Juracek (2017). Streamflow data for the period of record at each streamgage were used to compute annual mean streamflow, annual mean base flow, mean monthly flow, annual peak flow, and annual minimum flow. Results of the assessment are summarized in this fact sheet.

Streamflow alteration and habitat ramifications for a threatened fish species in the Central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Juracek, Kyle E.; Eng, Kenny; Carlisle, Daren M.; Wolock, David M.

2017-01-01

In the Central United States, the Arkansas darter (Etheostoma cragini) is listed as a threatened fish species by the State of Kansas. Survival of the darter is threatened by loss of habitat caused by changing streamflow conditions, in particular flow depletion. Future management of darter populations and habitats requires an understanding of streamflow conditions and how those conditions may have changed over time in response to natural and anthropogenic factors. In Kansas, streamflow alteration was assessed at 9 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in 6 priority basins with no pronounced long-term trends in precipitation. The assessment was based on a comparison of observed (O) and predicted expected (E) reference conditions for 29 flow metrics. The O/E results indicated a likely or possible diminished flow condition in 2 basins; the primary cause of which is groundwater-level declines resulting from groundwater pumping for irrigated agriculture. In these 2 basins, habitat characteristics adversely affected by flow depletion may include stream connectivity, pools, and water temperature. The other 4 basins were minimally affected, or unaffected, by flow depletion and therefore may provide the best opportunity for preservation of darter habitat. Through the O/E analysis, anthropogenic streamflow alteration was quantified and the results will enable better-informed decisions pertaining to the future management of darters in Kansas.

Bayesian Models for Streamflow and River Network Reconstruction using Tree Rings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravindranath, A.; Devineni, N.

2016-12-01

Water systems face non-stationary, dynamically shifting risks due to shifting societal conditions and systematic long-term variations in climate manifesting as quasi-periodic behavior on multi-decadal time scales. Water systems are thus vulnerable to long periods of wet or dry hydroclimatic conditions. Streamflow is a major component of water systems and a primary means by which water is transported to serve ecosystems' and human needs. Thus, our concern is in understanding streamflow variability. Climate variability and impacts on water resources are crucial factors affecting streamflow, and multi-scale variability increases risk to water sustainability and systems. Dam operations are necessary for collecting water brought by streamflow while maintaining downstream ecological health. Rules governing dam operations are based on streamflow records that are woefully short compared to periods of systematic variation present in the climatic factors driving streamflow variability and non-stationarity. We use hierarchical Bayesian regression methods in order to reconstruct paleo-streamflow records for dams within a basin using paleoclimate proxies (e.g. tree rings) to guide the reconstructions. The riverine flow network for the entire basin is subsequently modeled hierarchically using feeder stream and tributary flows. This is a starting point in analyzing streamflow variability and risks to water systems, and developing a scientifically-informed dynamic risk management framework for formulating dam operations and water policies to best hedge such risks. We will apply this work to the Missouri and Delaware River Basins (DRB). Preliminary results of streamflow reconstructions for eight dams in the upper DRB using standard Gaussian regression with regional tree ring chronologies give streamflow records that now span two to two and a half centuries, and modestly smoothed versions of these reconstructed flows indicate physically-justifiable trends in the time series.

Statewide analysis of the drainage-area ratio method for 34 streamflow percentile ranges in Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Roussel, Meghan C.; Vrabel, Joseph

2006-01-01

The drainage-area ratio method commonly is used to estimate streamflow for sites where no streamflow data are available using data from one or more nearby streamflow-gaging stations. The method is intuitive and straightforward to implement and is in widespread use by analysts and managers of surface-water resources. The method equates the ratio of streamflow at two stream locations to the ratio of the respective drainage areas. In practice, unity often is assumed as the exponent on the drainage-area ratio, and unity also is assumed as a multiplicative bias correction. These two assumptions are evaluated in this investigation through statewide analysis of daily mean streamflow in Texas. The investigation was made by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. More than 7.8 million values of daily mean streamflow for 712 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Texas were analyzed. To account for the influence of streamflow probability on the drainage-area ratio method, 34 percentile ranges were considered. The 34 ranges are the 4 quartiles (0-25, 25-50, 50-75, and 75-100 percent), the 5 intervals of the lower tail of the streamflow distribution (0-1, 1-2, 2-3, 3-4, and 4-5 percent), the 20 quintiles of the 4 quartiles (0-5, 5-10, 10-15, 15-20, 20-25, 25-30, 30-35, 35-40, 40-45, 45-50, 50-55, 55-60, 60-65, 65-70, 70-75, 75-80, 80-85, 85-90, 90-95, and 95-100 percent), and the 5 intervals of the upper tail of the streamflow distribution (95-96, 96-97, 97-98, 98-99 and 99-100 percent). For each of the 253,116 (712X711/2) unique pairings of stations and for each of the 34 percentile ranges, the concurrent daily mean streamflow values available for the two stations provided for station-pair application of the drainage-area ratio method. For each station pair, specific statistical summarization (median, mean, and standard deviation) of both the exponent and bias-correction components of the drainage-area ratio method were computed. Statewide statistics (median, mean, and standard deviation) of the station-pair specific statistics subsequently were computed and are tabulated herein. A separate analysis considered conditioning station pairs to those stations within 100 miles of each other and with the absolute value of the logarithm (base-10) of the ratio of the drainage areas greater than or equal to 0.25. Statewide statistics of the conditional station-pair specific statistics were computed and are tabulated. The conditional analysis is preferable because of the anticipation that small separation distances reflect similar hydrologic conditions and the observation of large variation in exponent estimates for similar-sized drainage areas. The conditional analysis determined that the exponent is about 0.89 for streamflow percentiles from 0 to about 50 percent, is about 0.92 for percentiles from about 50 to about 65 percent, and is about 0.93 for percentiles from about 65 to about 85 percent. The exponent decreases rapidly to about 0.70 for percentiles nearing 100 percent. The computation of the bias-correction factor is sensitive to the range analysis interval (range of streamflow percentile); however, evidence suggests that in practice the drainage-area method can be considered unbiased. Finally, for general application, suggested values of the exponent are tabulated for 54 percentiles of daily mean streamflow in Texas; when these values are used, the bias correction is unity.

Water quality, streamflow conditions, and annual flow-duration curves for streams of the San Juan–Chama Project, southern Colorado and northern New Mexico, 1935-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Falk, Sarah E.; Anderholm, Scott K.; Hafich, Katya A.

2013-01-01

The Albuquerque–Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority supplements the municipal water supply for the Albuquerque metropolitan area, in central New Mexico, with water diverted from the Rio Grande. Water diverted from the Rio Grande for municipal use is derived from the San Juan–Chama Project, which delivers water from streams in the southern San Juan Mountains in the Colorado River Basin in southern Colorado to the Rio Chama watershed and the Rio Grande Basin in northern New Mexico. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Albuquerque–Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority, has compiled historical streamflow and water-quality data and collected new water-quality data to characterize the water quality and streamflow conditions and annual flow variability, as characterized by annual flow-duration curves, of streams of the San Juan–Chama Project. Nonparametric statistical methods were applied to calculate annual and monthly summary statistics of streamflow, trends in streamflow conditions were evaluated with the Mann–Kendall trend test, and annual variation in streamflow conditions was evaluated with annual flow-duration curves. The study area is located in northern New Mexico and southern Colorado and includes the Rio Blanco, Little Navajo River, and Navajo River, tributaries of the San Juan River in the Colorado River Basin located in the southern San Juan Mountains, and Willow Creek and Horse Lake Creek, tributaries of the Rio Chama in the Rio Grande Basin. The quality of water in the streams in the study area generally varied by watershed on the basis of the underlying geology and the volume and source of the streamflow. Water from the Rio Blanco and Little Navajo River watersheds, primarily underlain by volcanic deposits, volcaniclastic sediments and landslide deposits derived from these materials, was compositionally similar and had low specific-conductance values relative to the other streams in the study area. Water from the Navajo River, Horse Lake Creek, and Willow Creek watersheds, which are underlain mostly by Cretaceous-aged marine shale, was compositionally similar and had large concentrations of sulfate relative to the other streams in the study area, though the water from the Navajo River had lower specific-conductance values than did the water from Horse Lake Creek above Heron Reservoir and Willow Creek above Azotea Creek. Generally, surface-water quality varied with streamflow conditions throughout the year. Streamflow in spring and summer is generally a mixture of base flow (the component of streamflow derived from groundwater discharged to the stream channel) diluted with runoff from snowmelt and precipitation events, whereas streamflow in fall and winter is generally solely base flow. Major- and trace-element concentrations in the streams sampled were lower than U.S. Environmental Protection Agency primary and secondary drinking-water standards and New Mexico Environment Department surface-water standards for the streams. In general, years with increased annual discharge, compared to years with decreased annual discharge, had a smaller percentage of discharge in March, a larger percentage of discharge in June, an interval of discharge derived from snowmelt runoff that occurred later in the year, and a larger discharge in June. Additionally, years with increased annual discharge generally had a longer duration of runoff, and the streamflow indicators occurred at dates later in the year than the years with less snowmelt runoff. Additionally, the seasonal distribution of streamflow was more strongly controlled by the change in the amount of annual discharge than by changes in streamflow over time. The variation of streamflow conditions over time at one streamflow-gaging station in the study area, Navajo River at Banded Peak Ranch, was not significantly monotonic over the period of record with a Kendall’s tau of 0.0426 and with a p-value of 0.5938 for 1937 to 2009 (a trend was considered statistically significant at a p-value ≤ 0.05). There was a relation, however, such that annual discharge was generally lower than the median during a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation interval and higher than the median during a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation interval. Streamflow conditions at Navajo River at Banded Peak Ranch varied nonmonotonically over time and were likely a function of complex climate pattern interactions. Similarly, the monthly distribution of streamflow varied nonmonotonically over time and was likely a function of complex climate pattern interactions that cause variation over time. Study results indicated that the median of the sum of the streamflow available above the minimum monthly bypass requirement from Rio Blanco, Little Navajo River, and Navajo River was 126,240 acre-feet. The results also indicated that diversion of water for the San Juan–Chama Project has been possible for most months of most years.

Groundwater and surface-water interaction and effects of pumping in a complex glacial-sediment aquifer, phase 2, east-central Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eggleston, Jack R.; Zarriello, Phillip J.; Carlson, Carl S.

2015-12-31

Model simulations indicate that under average base-flow conditions, the Birch Road wells have a small effect on flow in the Sudbury River during most months, even at the maximum pumping rate of 4.9 ft3/s (3.17 Mgal/d). Maximum percent streamflow depletion in the Sudbury River caused by simulated pumping takes place during simulated drought conditions, when streamflow decreased by as much as 21 percent under maximum continuous pumping. Simulations also indicate that groundwater withdrawals at the Birch Road site could be managed so that adverse streamflow impacts are substantially ameliorated. Under the most ecologically conservative simulated drought conditions, simulated streamflow depletion was reduced from 21 percent to 3 percent by pumping at the maximum rate for 6 months rather than for 12 months. Simulations that return 10 percent of the Birch Road well withdrawals to Pod Meadow Pond indicate a modest reduction in the Sudbury River streamflow depletion and provide a larger percentage increase to streamflow just downstream of the pond. The groundwater model also indicates that well locations can have a large effect on the sustainable pumping rate and so should be chosen carefully. The model provides a tool for evaluating alternative pumping rates and schedules not included in this analysis.

Streamflow response to increasing precipitation extremes altered by forest management

Treesearch

Charlene N. Kelly; Kevin J. McGuire; Chelcy Ford Miniat; James M. Vose

2016-01-01

Increases in extreme precipitation events of floods and droughts are expected to occur worldwide. The increase in extreme events will result in changes in streamflow that are expected to affect water availability for human consumption and aquatic ecosystem function. We present an analysis that may greatly improve current streamflow models by quantifying the...

Assessment of Habitat, Fish Communities, and Streamflow Requirements for Habitat Protection, Ipswich River, Massachusetts, 1998-99

USGS Publications Warehouse

Armstrong, David S.; Richards, Todd A.; Parker, Gene W.

2001-01-01

The relations among stream habitat, fish communities, and hydrologic conditions were investigated in the Ipswich River Basin in northeastern Massachusetts. Data were assessed from 27 sites on the mainstem of the Ipswich River from July to September 1998 and from 10 sites on 5 major tributaries in July and August 1999. Habitat assessments made in 1998 determined that in a year with sustained streamflow for most of the summer, the Ipswich River contains diverse, high-quality aquatic habitat. Channel types are predominantly low gradient glides, pools, and impoundments, with a sandy streambed and a forest or shrub riparian zone. Features that provide fish habitat are located mostly along stream margins; these features include overhanging brush, undercut banks, exposed roots, and woody debris. These habitat features decrease in availability to aquatic communities with declining streamflows and generally become unavailable after streamflows drop to the point where the edge of water recedes from the stream banks.The mainstem and tributaries were sampled to determine fish species composition, relative abundance, and length frequency. Fish sampling indicates that the fish community in the Ipswich River is currently a warm-water fish community dominated by pond-type fish. However, historical temperature data, and survival of stocked trout in the mainstem Ipswich into late summer of 1998, indicate that the Ipswich River potentially could support cold-water fish species if adequate flows are maintained. Dominant fish species sampled in the mainstem Ipswich River were redfin pickerel (Esox americanus), American eel (Anguilla rostrata), and pumpkinseed (Lepomis gibbosus), which together represented 41, 22, and 10 percent, respectively, of 4,745 fish sampled. The fish communities of the mainstem and tributaries contained few fluvial-dependent or fluvial-specialist species (requiring flow), and were dominated by macrohabitat generalists (tolerant of low-flow, warm-water, and ponded conditions). In comparison to a nearby river (Lamprey River, N.H.), and a reference fish community developed for inland New England streams, the Ipswich fish community would be expected to have appreciably higher percentages of fluvial-dependent and fluvial-specialist species were streamflows restored.Four riffle sites on the mainstem of the Ipswich River were identified as critical habitat areas because they are among the first sites to exhibit fish-passage problems or to dry during low flows. A watershed-scale precipitation-runoff model previously developed for the Ipswich River was used to simulate streamflows at these four sites for the period 1961-95 under no withdrawals (for water supply) and 1991 land use to evaluate habitat suitability under conditions that approximate the natural flow conditions. These simulated flows were used to calculate streamflow requirements by the Tennant and New England Aquatic-Base-Flow methods. Stream channels were surveyed at the critical riffle sites, and Water Surface Profile models were used to simulate streamflows and hydraulic characteristics needed for determining streamflow requirements by use of the Wetted-Perimeter and R2Cross methods. Normalized by drainage area to units of cubic feet per second per square mile, these methods yielded the following streamflow requirements: 0.50 cubic feet per second per square mile for the Tennant 30-percent QMA method, 0.42 cubic feet per second per square mile for the wetted-perimeter value necessary to maintain wetted perimeter at three altered riffle sites, 0.42 cubic feet per second per square mile for the R2Cross value required to maintain R2Cross hydraulic criteria at a natural riffle site, and 0.34 cubic feet per second per square mile for the aquatic-base-flow median of monthly mean flows for August for the simulated 1961-95 period under no withdrawals and 1991 land use. The mean streamflow requirement determined from these four methods is 0.42 cubic feet per second per square

Estimation of baseline daily mean streamflows for ungaged locations on Pennsylvania streams, water years 1960-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stuckey, Marla H.; Koerkle, Edward H.; Ulrich, James E.

2012-01-01

BaSE uses the map correlation method and flow-duration exceedance probability regression equations to estimate baseline daily mean streamflow for an ungaged location. The output from BaSE is a Microsoft Excel® report file that summarizes the reference streamgage and ungaged location information, including basin characteristics, percent difference in basin characteristics between the two locations, any warning associated with the basin characteristics, mean and median streamflow for the ungaged location, and a daily hydrograph of streamflow for water years 1960–2008 for the ungaged location. The daily mean streamflow for the ungaged location can be exported as a text file to be used as input into other statistical software packages. BaSE estimates daily mean streamflow for baseline conditions only, and any alterations to streamflow from regulation, large water use, or substantial mining are not reflected in the estimated streamflow.

Relations between winter climatic variables and April streamflows in New England and implications for summer streamflows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Luther F.

2012-01-01

A period of much below normal streamflow in southern New England during April 2012 raised concerns that a long-term period of drought could evolve through late spring and summer, leading to potential water availability issues. To understand better the relations between winter climatic variables and April streamflows, April streamflows from 31 streamflow gages in New England that drain relatively natural watersheds were tested for year-to-year correlation with winter precipitation and air temperature from nearby meteorological sites. Higher winter (December through March) precipitation is associated with higher April streamflows at many gages in northern and central New England. This implies that snowpack accumulation is an important mechanism for winter water storage and subsequently important for spring streamflows in this area. Higher March air temperatures are associated with lower April streamflows at many gages in central and southern New England, likely because the majority of snowmelt runoff occurs before April in warm years. A warm March 2012 contributed to early snowmelt runoff in New England and to much below normal April streamflows in southern New England. However, no strong relation was found between historical April streamflows and late-spring or summer streamflows in New England. The lack of a strong relation implies that summer precipitation, rather than spring conditions, controls summer streamflows.

Modeled streamflow metrics on small, ungaged stream reaches in the Upper Colorado River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Lindsay V.; Shafroth, Patrick B.

2016-01-20

Modeling streamflow is an important approach for understanding landscape-scale drivers of flow and estimating flows where there are no streamgage records. In this study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with Colorado State University, the objectives were to model streamflow metrics on small, ungaged streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin and identify streams that are potentially threatened with becoming intermittent under drier climate conditions. The Upper Colorado River Basin is a region that is critical for water resources and also projected to experience large future climate shifts toward a drying climate. A random forest modeling approach was used to model the relationship between streamflow metrics and environmental variables. Flow metrics were then projected to ungaged reaches in the Upper Colorado River Basin using environmental variables for each stream, represented as raster cells, in the basin. Last, the projected random forest models of minimum flow coefficient of variation and specific mean daily flow were used to highlight streams that had greater than 61.84 percent minimum flow coefficient of variation and less than 0.096 specific mean daily flow and suggested that these streams will be most threatened to shift to intermittent flow regimes under drier climate conditions. Map projection products can help scientists, land managers, and policymakers understand current hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin and make informed decisions regarding water resources. With knowledge of which streams are likely to undergo significant drying in the future, managers and scientists can plan for stream-dependent ecosystems and human water users.

Framework for Probabilistic Projections of Energy-Relevant Streamflow Indicators under Climate Change Scenarios for the U.S.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wagener, Thorsten; Mann, Michael; Crane, Robert

2014-04-29

This project focuses on uncertainty in streamflow forecasting under climate change conditions. The objective is to develop easy to use methodologies that can be applied across a range of river basins to estimate changes in water availability for realistic projections of climate change. There are three major components to the project: Empirical downscaling of regional climate change projections from a range of Global Climate Models; Developing a methodology to use present day information on the climate controls on the parameterizations in streamflow models to adjust the parameterizations under future climate conditions (a trading-space-for-time approach); and Demonstrating a bottom-up approach tomore » establishing streamflow vulnerabilities to climate change. The results reinforce the need for downscaling of climate data for regional applications, and further demonstrates the challenges of using raw GCM data to make local projections. In addition, it reinforces the need to make projections across a range of global climate models. The project demonstrates the potential for improving streamflow forecasts by using model parameters that are adjusted for future climate conditions, but suggests that even with improved streamflow models and reduced climate uncertainty through the use of downscaled data, there is still large uncertainty is the streamflow projections. The most useful output from the project is the bottom-up vulnerability driven approach to examining possible climate and land use change impacts on streamflow. Here, we demonstrate an inexpensive and easy to apply methodology that uses Classification and Regression Trees (CART) to define the climate and environmental parameters space that can produce vulnerabilities in the system, and then feeds in the downscaled projections to determine the probability top transitioning to a vulnerable sate. Vulnerabilities, in this case, are defined by the end user.« less

Climate and streamflow characteristics for selected streamgages in eastern South Dakota, water years 1945–2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoogestraat, Galen K.; Stamm, John F.

2015-11-02

For the streamgages with significant trends in residual streamflow (such as the streamgage on the Whetstone River and streamgages in the Big Sioux River Basin), land-use changes likely are minor factors, with the main factors probably being changes in the timing and frequency of large precipitation events and persistently wetter antecedent conditions. Changes in the relation between precipitation and streamflow since 1945 were evident when considering the runoff efficiency of the watershed. For example, the streamflow response to annual precipitation of 25 inches for the James River near Scotland increased from approximately 1,000 cubic feet per second for WYs 1945–1990 to about 2,500 cubic feet per second for WYs 1991–2013. The importance of antecedent conditions on annual mean streamflow also was indicated by the significance of the multiple linear regression coefficients of annual mean streamflow and precipitation from preceding water years for all but one streamgage. In addition, rising groundwater levels are present in wells in eastern South Dakota, particularly since the 1980s.

Estimating ice-affected streamflow by extended Kalman filtering

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holtschlag, D.J.; Grewal, M.S.

1998-01-01

An extended Kalman filter was developed to automate the real-time estimation of ice-affected streamflow on the basis of routine measurements of stream stage and air temperature and on the relation between stage and streamflow during open-water (ice-free) conditions. The filter accommodates three dynamic modes of ice effects: sudden formation/ablation, stable ice conditions, and eventual elimination. The utility of the filter was evaluated by applying it to historical data from two long-term streamflow-gauging stations, St. John River at Dickey, Maine and Platte River at North Bend, Nebr. Results indicate that the filter was stable and that parameters converged for both stations, producing streamflow estimates that are highly correlated with published values. For the Maine station, logarithms of estimated streamflows are within 8% of the logarithms of published values 87.2% of the time during periods of ice effects and within 15% 96.6% of the time. Similarly, for the Nebraska station, logarithms of estimated streamflows are within 8% of the logarithms of published values 90.7% of the time and within 15% 97.7% of the time. In addition, the correlation between temporal updates and published streamflows on days of direct measurements at the Maine station was 0.777 and 0.998 for ice-affected and open-water periods, respectively; for the Nebraska station, corresponding correlations were 0.864 and 0.997.

Streamflow, water-temperature, and specific-conductance data for selected streams draining into Lake Fryxell, lower Taylor Valley, Victoria Land, Antarctica, 1990-92

USGS Publications Warehouse

Von Guerard, Paul; McKnight, Diane M.; Harnish, R.A.; Gartner, J.W.; Andrews, E.D.

1995-01-01

During the 1990-91 and 1991-92 field seasons in Antarctica, streamflow, water-temperature, and specific-conductance data were collected on the major streams draining into Lake Fryxell. Lake Fryxell is a permanently ice-covered, closed-basin lake with 13 tributary streams. Continuous streamflow data were collected at eight sites, and periodic streamflow measurements were made at three sites. Continuous water-temperature and specific- conductance data were collected at seven sites, and periodic water-temperature and specific-conductance data were collected at all sites. Streamflow for all streams measured ranged from 0 to 0.651 cubic meter per second. Water temperatures for all streams measured ranged from 0 to 14.3 degrees Celsius. Specific conductance for all streams measured ranged from 11 to 491 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius. It is probable that stream- flow in the Lake Fryxell Basin during 1990-92 was greater than average. Examination of the 22-year streamflow record in the Onyx River in the Wright Valley revealed that in 1990 streamflow began earlier than for any previous year recorded and that the peak streamflow of record was exceeded. Similar high-flow conditions occurred during the 1991-92 field season. Thus, the data collected on streams draining into Lake Fryxell during 1990-92 are representative of greater than average stream- flow conditions.

Short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting using operationally-produced single-valued streamflow forecasts - A Hydrologic Model Output Statistics (HMOS) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regonda, Satish Kumar; Seo, Dong-Jun; Lawrence, Bill; Brown, James D.; Demargne, Julie

2013-08-01

We present a statistical procedure for generating short-term ensemble streamflow forecasts from single-valued, or deterministic, streamflow forecasts produced operationally by the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs). The resulting ensemble streamflow forecast provides an estimate of the predictive uncertainty associated with the single-valued forecast to support risk-based decision making by the forecasters and by the users of the forecast products, such as emergency managers. Forced by single-valued quantitative precipitation and temperature forecasts (QPF, QTF), the single-valued streamflow forecasts are produced at a 6-h time step nominally out to 5 days into the future. The single-valued streamflow forecasts reflect various run-time modifications, or "manual data assimilation", applied by the human forecasters in an attempt to reduce error from various sources in the end-to-end forecast process. The proposed procedure generates ensemble traces of streamflow from a parsimonious approximation of the conditional multivariate probability distribution of future streamflow given the single-valued streamflow forecast, QPF, and the most recent streamflow observation. For parameter estimation and evaluation, we used a multiyear archive of the single-valued river stage forecast produced operationally by the NWS Arkansas-Red River Basin River Forecast Center (ABRFC) in Tulsa, Oklahoma. As a by-product of parameter estimation, the procedure provides a categorical assessment of the effective lead time of the operational hydrologic forecasts for different QPF and forecast flow conditions. To evaluate the procedure, we carried out hindcasting experiments in dependent and cross-validation modes. The results indicate that the short-term streamflow ensemble hindcasts generated from the procedure are generally reliable within the effective lead time of the single-valued forecasts and well capture the skill of the single-valued forecasts. For smaller basins, however, the effective lead time is significantly reduced by short basin memory and reduced skill in the single-valued QPF.

Floods of Selected Streams in Arkansas, Spring 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funkhouser, Jaysson E.; Eng, Ken

2009-01-01

Floods can cause loss of life and extensive destruction to property. Monitoring floods and understanding the reasons for their occurrence are the responsibility of many Federal agencies. The National Weather Service, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the U.S. Geological Survey are among the most visible of these agencies. Together, these three agencies collect and analyze floodflow information to better understand the variety of mechanisms that cause floods, and how the characteristics and frequencies of floods vary with time and location. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has monitored and assessed the quantity of streamflow in our Nation's streams since the agency's inception in 1879. Because of ongoing collection and assessment of streamflow data, the USGS can provide information about a range of surface-water issues including the suitability of water for public supply and irrigation and the effects of agriculture and urbanization on streamflow. As part of its streamflow-data collection activities, the USGS measured streamflow in multiple streams during extreme flood events in Arkansas in the spring of 2008. The analysis of streamflow information collected during flood events such as these provides a scientific basis for decision making related to resource management and restoration. Additionally, this information can be used by water-resource managers to better define flood-hazard areas and to design bridges, culverts, dams, levees, and other structures. Water levels (stage) and streamflow (discharge) currently are being monitored in near real-time at approximately 150 locations in Arkansas. The streamflow-gaging stations measure and record hydrologic data at 15-minute or hourly intervals; the data then are transmitted through satellites to the USGS database and displayed on the internet every 1 to 4 hours. Streamflow-gaging stations in Arkansas are part of a network of over 7,500 active streamflow-gaging stations operated by the USGS throughout the United States in cooperation with other Federal, State, and local government agencies. In Arkansas, the major supporters of the streamflow-gaging network are the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Arkansas Natural Resources Commission, Arkansas Department of Environmental Quality, and Arkansas Geological Survey. Many other Federal, State, and local government entities provide additional support for streamflow-gaging stations. It is the combined support of the USGS and all funding partners that make it possible to maintain an adequate streamflow-gaging network in Arkansas. Data collected over the years at streamflow-gaging stations can be used to characterize the relative magnitude of flood events and their statistical frequency of occurrence. These analyses provide water-resource managers with accurate and reliable hydrologic information based on present and historical flow conditions. Continued collection of streamflow data, with consideration of changes in land use, agricultural practices, and climate change, will help scientists to more accurately characterize the magnitude of extreme floods in the future.

Simulation of constituent transport in the Red River of the North basin, North Dakota and Minnesota, during unsteady-flow conditions, 1977 and 2003-04

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nustad, Rochelle A.; Bales, Jerad D.

2006-01-01

The Bureau of Reclamation identified eight water-supply alternatives for the Red River Valley Water Supply Project. Of those alternatives, six were considered for this study. Those six alternatives include a no-action alternative, two in-basin alternatives, and three interbasin alternatives. To address concerns of stakeholders and to provide information for an environmental impact statement, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, developed and applied a water-quality model to simulate the transport of total dissolved solids, sulfate, chloride, sodium, and total phosphorus during unsteady-flow conditions and to simulate the effects of the water-supply alternatives on water quality in the Red River and the Sheyenne River. The physical domain of the model, hereinafter referred to as the Red River model, includes the Red River from Wahpeton, North Dakota, to Emerson, Manitoba, and the Sheyenne River from below Baldhill Dam, North Dakota, to the confluence with the Red River. Boundary conditions were specified for May 15 through October 31, 2003, and January 15 through June 30, 2004. Measured streamflow data were available for August 1 through October 31, 2003, and April 1 through June 30, 2004, but water-quality data were available only for September 15 through 16, 2003, and May 10 through 13, 2004. The water-quality boundary conditions were assumed to be time invariant for the entire calibration period and to be equal to the measured value. The average difference between the measured and simulated streamflows was less than 4 percent for both calibration periods, and most differences were less than 2 percent. The average differences are considered to be acceptable because the differences are less than 5 percent, or the same as the error that would be expected in a typical streamflow measurement. Simulated total dissolved solids, sulfate, chloride, and sodium concentrations generally were less than measured concentrations for both calibration periods. The average absolute differences generally were less than 25 percent. Total phosphorus was simulated as a nonconservative constituent by assuming that concentrations change according to a first-order decay rate. The average difference between the measured and simulated total phosphorus concentrations was 6.2 percent for the 2003 calibration period and -24 percent for the 2004 calibration period. The Red River model demonstrates sensitivity to changes in boundary conditions so a reasonable assumption is that the model can be used to compare relative effects of the various water-supply alternatives. The calibrated Red River model was used to simulate the effects of the six water-supply alternatives by using measured streamflows for September 1, 1976, through August 31, 1977, when streamflows throughout the Red River Basin were relatively low. Streamflows for the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota, were less than 17.9 cubic feet per second on 159 days of that 12-month period, and monthly average streamflows for the Red River at Grand Forks, North Dakota, and the Red River at Emerson, Manitoba, were less than 30 percent of the respective long-term average monthly streamflows for 11 of the 12 months during September 1976 through August 1977. Water-quality boundary conditions were generated using a stochastic approach in which probability distributions derived from all available historical data on instream concentrations were used to produce daily concentrations at model boundaries. Return flow concentrations were estimated from source concentrations and current (2006) wastewater-treatment technology. Because no historical information on ungaged local inflow constituent concentrations is available to estimate those boundary conditions, time-invariant concentrations for the low-flow 2003 calibration period were used as the ungaged local inflow boundary conditions. The effects of the water-supply alternatives on water quality in the Red River and

Identifying a base network of federally funded streamgaging stations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ries, Kernell G.; Kolva, J.R.; Stewart, D.W.

2004-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has completed a preliminary analysis to identify streamgaging stations needed in a base network that would satisfy five primary Federal goals for collecting streamflow information. The five goals are (1) determining streamflow at interstate and international borders and at locations mandated by court decrees, (2) determining the streamflow component of water budgets for the major river basins of the Nation, (3) providing real-time streamflow information to the U.S. National Weather Service to support flood-forecasting activities, (4) providing streamflow information at locations of monitoring stations included in USGS national water-quality networks, and (5) providing streamflow information necessary for regionalization of streamflow characteristics and assessing potential long-term trends in streamflow associated with changes in climate. The analysis was done using a Geographic Information System. USGS headquarters staff made initial selections of stations that satisfied at least one of the five goals, and then staff in each of the 48 USGS district offices reviewed the selections, making suggestions for additions or changes based on detailed local knowledge of the streams in the area. The analysis indicated that 4,242 streamgaging stations are needed in the base network to meet the 5 Federal goals for streamflow information. Of these, 2,692 stations (63.5 percent) are currently operated by the USGS, 277 stations (6.5 percent) are currently operated by other agencies, 865 (20.4 percent) are discontinued USGS stations that need to be reactivated, and 408 (9.6 percent) are locations where new stations are needed. Copyright ASCE 2004.

Regional analyses of streamflow characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Riggs, H.C.

1973-01-01

This manual describes various ways of generalizing streamflow characteristics and evaluates the applicability and reliability of each under various hydrologic conditions. Several alternatives to regionalization are briefly described.

Simulation of groundwater and surface-water interaction and effects of pumping in a complex glacial-sediment aquifer, east central Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eggleston, Jack R.; Carlson, Carl S.; Fairchild, Gillian M.; Zarriello, Phillip J.

2012-01-01

The effects of groundwater pumping on surface-water features were evaluated by use of a numerical groundwater model developed for a complex glacial-sediment aquifer in northeastern Framingham, Massachusetts, and parts of surrounding towns. The aquifer is composed of sand, gravel, silt, and clay glacial-fill sediments up to 270 feet thick over an irregular fractured bedrock surface. Surface-water bodies, including Cochituate Brook, the Sudbury River, Lake Cochituate, Dudley Pond, and adjoining wetlands, are in hydraulic connection with the aquifer and can be affected by groundwater withdrawals. Groundwater and surface-water interaction was simulated with MODFLOW-NWT under current conditions and a variety of hypothetical pumping conditions. Simulations of hypothetical pumping at reactivated water supply wells indicate that captured groundwater would decrease baseflow to the Sudbury River and induce recharge from Lake Cochituate. Under constant (steady-state) pumping, induced groundwater recharge from Lake Cochituate was equal to about 32 percent of the simulated pumping rate, and flow downstream in the Sudbury River decreased at the same rate as pumping. However, surface water responded quickly to pumping stresses. When pumping was simulated for 1 month and then stopped, streamflow depletions decreased by about 80 percent within 2 months and by about 90 percent within about 4 months. The fast surface water response to groundwater pumping offers the potential to substantially reduce streamflow depletions during periods of low flow, which are of greatest concern to the ecological integrity of the river. Results indicate that streamflow depletion during September, typically the month of lowest flow, can be reduced by 29 percent by lowering the maximum pumping rates to near zero during September. Lowering pumping rates for 3 months (July through September) reduces streamflow depletion during September by 79 percent as compared to constant pumping. These results demonstrate that a seasonal or streamflow-based groundwater pumping schedule can reduce the effects of pumping during periods of low flow.

Tree-ring reconstruction of streamflow in the Snare River Basin, Northwest Territories, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, J. P.; Pisaric, M. F.

2017-12-01

Drought is a component of many ecosystems in North America causing environmental and socioeconomical impacts. In the ongoing context of climatic and environmental changes, drought-related issues are becoming problematic in northern Canada, which have not been associated with drought-like conditions in the past. Dryer than average conditions threatens the energy security of northern canadian communities, since this region relies on the production of hydroelectricity as an energy source. In the North Slave Region of Northwest Territory (NWT), water levels and streamflows were significantly lower in 2014/2015. The Government of the NWT had to spend nearly $50 million to purchase diesel fuel to generate enough electricity to supplement the reduced power generation of the Snare River hydroelectric system, hence the need to better understand the multi-decadal variability in streamflow. The aims of this presentation are i) to present jack pine and white spruce tree-ring chronologies of Southern NWT; ii) to reconstruct past streamflow of the Snare River Basin; iii) to evaluate the frequency and magnitude of extreme drought conditions, and iv) to identify which large-scale atmospheric or oceanic patterns are teleconnected to regional hydraulic conditions. Preliminary results show that the growth of jack pine and white spruce populations is better correlated with precipitation and temperature, respectively, than hydraulic conditions. Nonetheless, we present a robust streamflow reconstruction of the Snare River that is well correlated with the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, albeit the strength of the correlation is non-stationary. Spectral analysis corroborate the synchronicity between negative NAO conditions and drought conditions. From an operational standpoint, considering that the general occurrence of positive/negative NAO can be predicted, it the hope of the authors that these results can facilitate energetic planning in the Northwest Territories through the assessment of the prevailing streamflow scenario.

Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Nonstationarity on Seasonal Streamflow Predictability in the U.S. Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehner, Flavio; Wood, Andrew W.; Llewellyn, Dagmar; Blatchford, Douglas B.; Goodbody, Angus G.; Pappenberger, Florian

2017-12-01

Seasonal streamflow predictions provide a critical management tool for water managers in the American Southwest. In recent decades, persistent prediction errors for spring and summer runoff volumes have been observed in a number of watersheds in the American Southwest. While mostly driven by decadal precipitation trends, these errors also relate to the influence of increasing temperature on streamflow in these basins. Here we show that incorporating seasonal temperature forecasts from operational global climate prediction models into streamflow forecasting models adds prediction skill for watersheds in the headwaters of the Colorado and Rio Grande River basins. Current dynamical seasonal temperature forecasts now show sufficient skill to reduce streamflow forecast errors in snowmelt-driven regions. Such predictions can increase the resilience of streamflow forecasting and water management systems in the face of continuing warming as well as decadal-scale temperature variability and thus help to mitigate the impacts of climate nonstationarity on streamflow predictability.

Human influences on streamflow drought characteristics in England and Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tijdeman, Erik; Hannaford, Jamie; Stahl, Kerstin

2018-02-01

Human influences can affect streamflow drought characteristics and propagation. The question is where, when and why? To answer these questions, the impact of different human influences on streamflow droughts were assessed in England and Wales, across a broad range of climate and catchments conditions. We used a dataset consisting of catchments with near-natural flow as well as catchments for which different human influences have been indicated in the metadata (Factors Affecting Runoff) of the UK National River Flow Archive (NRFA). A screening approach was applied on the streamflow records to identify human-influenced records with drought characteristics that deviated from those found for catchments with near-natural flow. Three different deviations were considered, specifically deviations in (1) the relationship between streamflow drought duration and the base flow index, BFI (specifically, BFIHOST, the BFI predicted from the hydrological properties of soils), (2) the correlation between streamflow and precipitation and (3) the temporal occurrence of streamflow droughts compared to precipitation droughts, i.e. an increase or decrease in streamflow drought months relative to precipitation drought months over the period of record. The identified deviations were then related to the indicated human influences. Results showed that the majority of catchments for which human influences were indicated did not show streamflow drought characteristics that deviated from those expected under near-natural conditions. For the catchments that did show deviating streamflow drought characteristics, prolonged streamflow drought durations were found in some of the catchments affected by groundwater abstractions. Weaker correlations between streamflow and precipitation were found for some of the catchments with reservoirs, water transfers or groundwater augmentation schemes. An increase in streamflow drought occurrence towards the end of their records was found for some of the catchments affected by groundwater abstractions and a decrease in streamflow drought occurrence for some of the catchments with either reservoirs or groundwater abstractions. In conclusion, the proposed screening approaches were sometimes successful in identifying streamflow records with deviating drought characteristics that are likely related to different human influences. However, a quantitative attribution of the impact of human influences on streamflow drought characteristics requires more detailed case-by-case information about the type and degree of all different human influences. Given that, in many countries, such information is often not readily accessible, the approaches adopted here could provide useful in targeting future efforts. In England and Wales specifically, the catchments with deviating streamflow drought characteristics identified in this study could serve as the starting point of detailed case study research.

Marginal Economic Value of Streamflow: A Case Study for the Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Thomas C.; Harding, Benjamin L.; Payton, Elizabeth A.

1990-12-01

The marginal economic value of streamflow leaving forested areas in the Colorado River Basin was estimated by determining the impact on water use of a small change in streamflow and then applying economic value estimates to the water use changes. The effect on water use of a change in streamflow was estimated with a network flow model that simulated salinity levels and the routing of flow to consumptive uses and hydroelectric dams throughout the Basin. The results show that, under current water management institutions, the marginal value of streamflow in the Colorado River Basin is largely determined by nonconsumptive water uses, principally energy production, rather than by consumptive agricultural or municipal uses. The analysis demonstrates the importance of a systems framework in estimating the marginal value of streamflow.

Evaluation of Strategies for Balancing Water Use and Streamflow Reductions in the Upper Charles River Basin, Eastern Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eggleston, Jack R.

2004-01-01

The upper Charles River basin, located 30 miles southwest of Boston, Massachusetts, is experiencing water shortages during the summer. Towns in the basin have instituted water-conservation programs and water-use bans to reduce summertime water use. During July through October, streamflow in the Charles River and its tributaries regularly falls below 0.50 cubic foot per second per square mile, the minimum streamflow used by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service as its Aquatic Base Flow standard for maintaining healthy freshwater ecosystems. To examine how human water use could be changed to mitigate these water shortages, a numerical ground-water flow model was modified and used in conjunction with response coefficients and optimization techniques. Streamflows at 10 locations on the Charles River and its tributaries were determined under various water-use scenarios and climatic conditions. A variety of engineered solutions to the water shortages were examined for their ability to increase water supplies and summertime streamflows. Results indicate that although human water use contributes to the problem of low summertime streamflows, human water use is not the only, or even the primary, cause of low flows in the basin. The lowest summertime streamflows increase by 12 percent but remain below the Aquatic Base Flow standard when all public water-supply pumpage and wastewater flows in the basin are eliminated in a simulation under average climatic conditions. Under dry climatic conditions, the same measures increase the lowest average monthly streamflow by 95 percent but do not increase it above the Aquatic Base Flow standard. The most promising water-management strategies to increase streamflows and water supplies, based on the study results, include wastewater recharge to the aquifer, altered management of pumping well schedules, regional water-supply sharing, and water conservation. In a scenario that simulated towns sharing water supplies, streamflow in the Charles River as it exits the basin increased by 18 percent during July through September and an excess water-supply capacity of 13.4 cubic feet per second, above and beyond average use, would be available to all towns in the basin. These study results could help water suppliers and regulators evaluate strategies for balancing ground-water development and streamflow reductions in the basin.

Precipitation-runoff and streamflow-routing models for the Willamette River basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laenen, Antonius; Risley, John C.

1997-01-01

With an input of current streamflow, precipitation, and air temperature data the combined runoff and routing models can provide current estimates of streamflow at almost 500 locations on the main stem and major tributaries of the Willamette River with a high degree of accuracy. Relative contributions of surface runoff, subsurface flow, and ground-water flow can be assessed for 1 to 10 HRU classes in each of 253 subbasins identified for precipitation-runoff modeling. Model outputs were used with a water-quality model to simulate the movement of dye in the Pudding River as an example

Consistent and efficient processing of ADCP streamflow measurements

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, David S.; Constantinescu, George; Garcia, Marcelo H.; Hanes, Dan

2016-01-01

The use of Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCPs) from a moving boat is a commonly used method for measuring streamflow. Currently, the algorithms used to compute the average depth, compute edge discharge, identify invalid data, and estimate velocity and discharge for invalid data vary among manufacturers. These differences could result in different discharges being computed from identical data. Consistent computational algorithm, automated filtering, and quality assessment of ADCP streamflow measurements that are independent of the ADCP manufacturer are being developed in a software program that can process ADCP moving-boat discharge measurements independent of the ADCP used to collect the data.

Conjunctive-management models for sustained yield of stream-aquifer systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barlow, P.M.; Ahlfeld, D.P.; Dickerman, D.C.

2003-01-01

Conjunctive-management models that couple numerical simulation with linear optimization were developed to evaluate trade-offs between groundwater withdrawals and streamflow depletions for alluvial-valley stream-aquifer systems representative of those of the northeastern United States. A conjunctive-management model developed for a hypothetical stream-aquifer system was used to assess the effect of interannual hydrologic variability on minimum monthly streamflow requirements. The conjunctive-management model was applied to the Hunt-Annaquatucket-Pettaquamscutt stream-aquifer system of central Rhode Island. Results show that it is possible to increase the amount of current withdrawal from the aquifer by as much as 50% by modifying current withdrawal schedules, modifying the number and configuration of wells in the supply-well network, or allowing increased streamflow depletion in the Annaquatucket and Pettaquamscutt rivers. Alternatively, it is possible to reduce current rates of streamflow depletion in the Hunt River by as much as 35% during the summer, but such reductions would result increases in groundwater withdrawals.

Evaluating the impact of irrigation on surface water - groundwater interaction and stream temperature in an agricultural watershed.

PubMed

Essaid, Hedeff I; Caldwell, Rodney R

2017-12-01

Changes in groundwater discharge to streams caused by irrigation practices can influence stream temperature. Observations along two currently flood-irrigated reaches in the 640-square-kilometer upper Smith River watershed, an important agricultural and recreational fishing area in west-central Montana, showed a downstream temperature decrease resulting from groundwater discharge to the stream. A watershed-scale coupled surface water and groundwater flow model was used to examine changes in streamflow, groundwater discharge to the stream and stream temperature resulting from irrigation practices. The upper Smith River watershed was used to develop the model framework including watershed climate, topography, hydrography, vegetation, soil properties and current irrigation practices. Model results were used to compare watershed streamflow, groundwater recharge, and groundwater discharge to the stream for three scenarios: natural, pre-irrigation conditions (PreIrr); current irrigation practices involving mainly stream diversion for flood and sprinkler irrigation (IrrCurrent); and a hypothetical scenario with only groundwater supplying sprinkler irrigation (IrrGW). Irrigation increased groundwater recharge relative to natural PreIrr conditions because not all applied water was removed by crop evapotranspiration. Groundwater storage and groundwater discharge to the stream increased relative to natural PreIrr conditions when the source of irrigation water was mainly stream diversion as in the IrrCurrent scenario. The hypothetical IrrGW scenario, in which groundwater withdrawals were the sole source of irrigation water, resulted in widespread lowering of the water table and associated decreases in groundwater storage and groundwater discharge to the stream. A mixing analysis using model predicted groundwater discharge along the reaches suggests that stream diversion and flood irrigation, represented in the IrrCurrent scenario, has led to cooling of stream temperatures relative to natural PreIrr conditions improving fish thermal habitat. However, the decrease in groundwater discharge in the IrrGW scenario resulting from large-scale groundwater withdrawal for irrigation led to warmer than natural stream temperatures and possible degradation of fish habitat. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Evaluating the impact of irrigation on surface water – groundwater interaction and stream temperature in an agricultural watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Essaid, Hedeff I.; Caldwell, Rodney R.

2017-01-01

Changes in groundwater discharge to streams caused by irrigation practices can influence stream temperature. Observations along two currently flood-irrigated reaches in the 640-square-kilometer upper Smith River watershed, an important agricultural and recreational fishing area in west-central Montana, showed a downstream temperature decrease resulting from groundwater discharge to the stream. A watershed-scale coupled surface water and groundwater flow model was used to examine changes in streamflow, groundwater discharge to the stream and stream temperature resulting from irrigation practices. The upper Smith River watershed was used to develop the model framework including watershed climate, topography, hydrography, vegetation, soil properties and current irrigation practices. Model results were used to compare watershed streamflow, groundwater recharge, and groundwater discharge to the stream for three scenarios: natural, pre-irrigation conditions (PreIrr); current irrigation practices involving mainly stream diversion for flood and sprinkler irrigation (IrrCurrent); and a hypothetical scenario with only groundwater supplying sprinkler irrigation (IrrGW). Irrigation increased groundwater recharge relative to natural PreIrr conditions because not all applied water was removed by crop evapotranspiration. Groundwater storage and groundwater discharge to the stream increased relative to natural PreIrr conditions when the source of irrigation water was mainly stream diversion as in the IrrCurrent scenario. The hypothetical IrrGW scenario, in which groundwater withdrawals were the sole source of irrigation water, resulted in widespread lowering of the water table and associated decreases in groundwater storage and groundwater discharge to the stream. A mixing analysis using model predicted groundwater discharge along the reaches suggests that stream diversion and flood irrigation, represented in the IrrCurrent scenario, has led to cooling of stream temperatures relative to natural PreIrr conditions improving fish thermal habitat. However, the decrease in groundwater discharge in the IrrGW scenario resulting from large-scale groundwater withdrawal for irrigation led to warmer than natural stream temperatures and possible degradation of fish habitat.

Preliminary stage and streamflow data at selected U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in Maine and New Hampshire for the flood of October 30–31, 2017

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kiah, Richard G.; Stasulis, Nicholas W.

2018-03-08

Rainfall from a storm on October 24–27, 2017, and Tropical Storm Philippe on October 29–30, created conditions that led to flooding across portions of New Hampshire and western Maine. On the basis of streamflow data collected at 30 selected U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages in the Androscoggin River, Connecticut River, Merrimack River, and Saco River Basins, the storms caused minor to moderate flooding in those basins on October 30–31, 2017. During the storms, the USGS deployed hydrographers to take discrete measurements of streamflow. The measurements were used to confirm the stage-to-streamflow relation (rating curve) at the selected USGS streamgages. Following the storms, hydrographers documented high-water marks in support of indirect measurements of streamflow. Seven streamgages with greater than 50 years of streamflow data recorded preliminary streamflow peaks within the top five for the periods of record. Twelve streamgages recorded preliminary peak streamflows greater than an estimate of the 100-year streamflow based on drainage area.

Low Streamflow Forcasting using Minimum Relative Entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, H.; Singh, V. P.

2013-12-01

Minimum relative entropy spectral analysis is derived in this study, and applied to forecast streamflow time series. Proposed method extends the autocorrelation in the manner that the relative entropy of underlying process is minimized so that time series data can be forecasted. Different prior estimation, such as uniform, exponential and Gaussian assumption, is taken to estimate the spectral density depending on the autocorrelation structure. Seasonal and nonseasonal low streamflow series obtained from Colorado River (Texas) under draught condition is successfully forecasted using proposed method. Minimum relative entropy determines spectral of low streamflow series with higher resolution than conventional method. Forecasted streamflow is compared to the prediction using Burg's maximum entropy spectral analysis (MESA) and Configurational entropy. The advantage and disadvantage of each method in forecasting low streamflow is discussed.

Determination of streamflow of the Arkansas River near Bentley in south-central Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Charles A.

2012-01-01

The Kansas Department of Agriculture, Division of Water Resources, requires that the streamflow of the Arkansas River just upstream from Bentley in south-central Kansas be measured or calculated before groundwater can be pumped from the well field. When the daily streamflow of the Arkansas River near Bentley is less than 165 cubic feet per second (ft3/s), pumping must be curtailed. Daily streamflow near Bentley was calculated by determining the relations between streamflow data from two reference streamgages with a concurrent record of 24 years, one located 17.2 miles (mi) upstream and one located 10.9 mi downstream, and streamflow at a temporary gage located just upstream from Bentley (Arkansas River near Bentley, Kansas). Flow-duration curves for the two reference streamgages indicate that during 1988?2011, the mean daily streamflow was less than 165 ft3/s 30 to 35 percent of the time. During extreme low-flow (drought) conditions, the reach of the Arkansas River between Hutchinson and Maize can lose flow to the adjacent alluvial aquifer, with streamflow losses as much as 1.6 cubic feet per second per mile. Three models were developed to calculate the streamflow of the Arkansas River near Bentley, Kansas. The model chosen depends on the data available and on whether the reach of the Arkansas River between Hutchinson and Maize is gaining or losing groundwater from or to the adjacent alluvial aquifer. The first model was a pair of equations developed from linear regressions of the relation between daily streamflow data from the Bentley streamgage and daily streamflow data from either the Arkansas River near Hutchinson, Kansas, station (station number 07143330) or the Arkansas River near Maize, Kansas, station (station number 07143375). The standard error of the Hutchinson-only equation was 22.8 ft3/s, and the standard error of the Maize-only equation was 22.3 ft3/s. The single-station model would be used if only one streamgage was available. In the second model, the flow gradient between the streamflow near Hutchinson and the streamflow near Maize was used to calculate the streamflow at the Bentley streamgage. This equation resulted in a standard error of 26.7 ft3/s. In the third model, a multiple regression analysis between both the daily streamflow of the Arkansas River near Hutchinson, Kansas, and the daily streamflow of the Arkansas River near Maize, Kansas, was used to calculate the streamflow at the Bentley streamgage. The multiple regression equation had a standard error of 21.2 ft3/s, which was the smallest of the standard errors for all the models. An analysis of the number of low-flow days and the number of days when the reach between Hutchinson and Maize loses flow to the adjacent alluvial aquifer indicates that the long-term trend is toward fewer days of losing conditions. This trend may indicate a long-term increase in water levels in the alluvial aquifer, which could be caused by one or more of several conditions, including an increase in rainfall, a decrease in pumping, a decrease in temperature, and an increase in streamflow upstream from the Hutchinson-to-Maize reach of the Arkansas River.

Streamflow gain-loss characteristics of Elkhead Creek downstream from Elkhead Reservoir near Craig, Colorado, 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruddy, Barbara C.

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board, the Upper Colorado River Endangered Fish Recovery Program (UCREFRP), Colorado Division of Water Resources, and City of Craig studied the gain-loss characteristics of Elkhead Creek downstream from Elkhead Reservoir to the confluence with the Yampa River during August through October 2009. Earlier qualitative interpretation of streamflow data downstream from the reservoir indicated that there could be a transit loss of nearly 10 percent. This potential loss could be a significant portion of the releases from Elkhead Reservoir requested by UCREFRP during late summer and early fall for improving critical habitat for endangered fish downstream in the Yampa River. Information on the gain-loss characteristics was needed for the effective management of the reservoir releases. In order to determine streamflow gain-loss characteristics for Elkhead Creek, eight measurement sets were made at four strategic instream sites and at one diversion from August to early October 2009. An additional measurement set was made after the study period during low-flow conditions in November 2009. Streamflow measurements were made using an Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter to provide high accuracy and consistency, especially at low flows. During this study, streamflow ranged from about 5 cubic feet per second up to more than 90 cubic feet per second with step increments in between. Measurements were made at least 24 hours after a change in reservoir release (streamflow) during steady-state conditions. The instantaneous streamflow measurements and the streamflow volume comparisons show the reach of Elkhead Creek immediately downstream from Elkhead Reservoir to the streamflow-gaging station 09246500, Elkhead Creek near Craig, CO, is neither a gaining nor losing reach. The instantaneous measurements immediately downstream from the dam and the combined measurements of Norvell ditch plus streamflow-gaging station 09246500 are mostly within the plus or minus 5-percent measurement error of each other. The variability of data is such that sometimes the streamflow is greater upstream than downstream and sometimes the streamflow is greater downstream than upstream. Streamflow volumes were calculated for multiple time periods as determined by a change in release from the reservoir. Streamflow volumes were greater downstream than upstream for all but one time period. The predominance of greater streamflows downstream is due to the difference between the USGS instantaneous measurements and record computation with the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) record at the dam. Immediately following an increase in streamflow from the reservoir, the downstream volume was smaller than the upstream volume, but this was an artifact of the traveltime between the two sites and possibly small amounts of water entering the streambank. Traveltimes were shorter at higher streamflows and when streamflow was increasing.

Streamflow of 2015—Water year national summary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jian, Xiaodong; Wolock, David M.; Lins, Harry F.; Brady, Steve

2016-08-30

IntroductionThe maps and graphs in this summary describe national streamflow conditions for water year 2015 (October 1, 2014, to September 30, 2015) in the context of the 86-year period 1930–2015, unless otherwise noted. The illustrations are based on observed data from the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) National Streamflow Information Program http://water.usgs.gov/nsip). The period 1930–2015 was used because prior to 1930, the number of streamgages was too small to provide representative data for computing statistics for most regions of the country.In the summary, reference is made to the term “runoff,” which is the depth to which a river basin, State, or other geographic area would be covered with water if all the streamflow within the area during a specified time period was uniformly distributed upon it. Runoff quantifies the magnitude of water flowing through the Nation's rivers and streams in measurement units that can be compared from one area to another.Each of the maps and graphs can be expanded to a larger view by clicking on the image. In all of the graphics, a rank of 1 indicates the highest flow of all years analyzed. Rankings of streamflow are grouped into much-below normal, below normal, normal, above normal, and much-above normal, based on percentiles of flow (greater than 90 percent, 76–90 percent, 25–75 percent, 10–24 percent, and less than 10 percent, respectively) (http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?id=ww_current). Some data used to produce maps and graphs are provisional and subject to change.

Watershed-scale modeling of streamflow change in incised montane meadows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Essaid, Hedeff I.; Hill, Barry R.

2014-01-01

Land use practices have caused stream channel incision and water table decline in many montane meadows of the Western United States. Incision changes the magnitude and timing of streamflow in water supply source watersheds, a concern to resource managers and downstream water users. The hydrology of montane meadows under natural and incised conditions was investigated using watershed simulation for a range of hydrologic conditions. The results illustrate the interdependence between: watershed and meadow hydrology; bedrock and meadow aquifers; and surface and groundwater flow through the meadow for the modeled scenarios. During the wet season, stream incision resulted in less overland flow and interflow and more meadow recharge causing a net decrease in streamflow and increase in groundwater storage relative to natural meadow conditions. During the dry season, incision resulted in less meadow evapotranspiration and more groundwater discharge to the stream causing a net increase in streamflow and a decrease in groundwater storage relative to natural meadow conditions. In general, for a given meadow setting, the magnitude of change in summer streamflow and long-term change in watershed groundwater storage due to incision will depend on the combined effect of: reduced evapotranspiration in the eroded meadow; induced groundwater recharge; replenishment of dry season groundwater storage depletion in meadow and bedrock aquifers by precipitation during wet years; and groundwater storage depletion that is not replenished by precipitation during wet years.

Simulation of effects of wastewater discharges on Sand Creek and lower Caddo Creek near Ardmore, Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wesolowski, Edwin A.

1999-01-01

A streamflow and water-quality model was developed for reaches of Sand and Caddo Creeks in south-central Oklahoma to simulate the effects of wastewater discharge from a refinery and a municipal treatment plant.The purpose of the model was to simulate conditions during low streamflow when the conditions controlling dissolved-oxygen concentrations are most severe. Data collected to calibrate and verify the streamflow and water-quality model include continuously monitored streamflow and water-quality data at two gaging stations and three temporary monitoring stations; wastewater discharge from two wastewater plants; two sets each of five water-quality samples at nine sites during a 24-hour period; dye and propane samples; periphyton samples; and sediment oxygen demand measurements. The water-quality sampling, at a 6-hour frequency, was based on a Lagrangian reference frame in which the same volume of water was sampled at each site. To represent the unsteady streamflows and the dynamic water-quality conditions, a transport modeling system was used that included both a model to route streamflow and a model to transport dissolved conservative constituents with linkage to reaction kinetics similar to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency QUAL2E model to simulate nonconservative constituents. These model codes are the Diffusion Analogy Streamflow Routing Model (DAFLOW) and the branched Lagrangian transport model (BLTM) and BLTM/QUAL2E that, collectively, as calibrated models, are referred to as the Ardmore Water-Quality Model.The Ardmore DAFLOW model was calibrated with three sets of streamflows that collectively ranged from 16 to 3,456 cubic feet per second. The model uses only one set of calibrated coefficients and exponents to simulate streamflow over this range. The Ardmore BLTM was calibrated for transport by simulating dye concentrations collected during a tracer study when streamflows ranged from 16 to 23 cubic feet per second. Therefore, the model is expected to be most useful for low streamflow simulations. The Ardmore BLTM/QUAL2E model was calibrated and verified with water-quality data from nine sites where two sets of five samples were collected. The streamflow during the water-quality sampling in Caddo Creek at site 7 ranged from 8.4 to 20 cubic feet per second, of which about 5.0 to 9.7 cubic feet per second was contributed by Sand Creek. The model simulates the fate and transport of 10 water-quality constituents. The model was verified by running it using data that were not used in calibration; only phytoplankton were not verified.Measured and simulated concentrations of dissolved oxygen exhibited a marked daily pattern that was attributable to waste loading and algal activity. Dissolved-oxygen measurements during this study and simulated dissolved-oxygen concentrations using the Ardmore Water-Quality Model, for the conditions of this study, illustrate that the dissolved-oxygen sag curve caused by the upstream wastewater discharges is confined to Sand Creek.

Using a predictive model to evaluate spatiotemporal variability in streamflow permanence across the Pacific Northwest region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaeger, K. L.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the PRObability Of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model, a GIS-based empirical model that provides predictions of the annual probability of a stream channel having year-round flow (Streamflow permanence probability; SPP) for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, western Montana). The model provides annual predictions for 2004-2016 at a 30-m spatial resolution based on monthly or annually updated values of climatic conditions, and static physiographic variables associated with the upstream basin. Prediction locations correspond to the channel network consistent with the National Hydrography Dataset stream grid and are publicly available through the USGS StreamStats platform (https://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/). In snowmelt-driven systems, the most informative predictor variable was mean upstream snow water equivalent on May 1, which highlights the influence of late spring snow cover for supporting streamflow in mountain river networks. In non-snowmelt-driven systems, the most informative variable was mean annual precipitation. Streamflow permanence probabilities varied across the study area by geography and from year-to-year. Notably lower SPP corresponded to the climatically drier subregions of the study area. Higher SPP were concentrated in coastal and higher elevation mountain regions. In addition, SPP appeared to trend with average hydroclimatic conditions, which were also geographically coherent. The year-to-year variability lends support for the growing recognition of the spatiotemporal dynamism of streamflow permanence. An analysis of three focus basins located in contrasting geographical and hydroclimatic settings demonstrates differences in the sensitivity of streamflow permanence to antecedent climate conditions as a function of geography. Consequently, results suggest that PROSPER model can be a useful tool to evaluate regions of the landscape that may be resilient or sensitive to drought conditions, allowing for targeted management efforts to protect critical reaches.

The significance of spatial variability of rainfall on streamflow: A synthetic analysis at the Upper Lee catchment, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pechlivanidis, Ilias; McIntyre, Neil; Wheater, Howard

2017-04-01

Rainfall, one of the main inputs in hydrological modeling, is a highly heterogeneous process over a wide range of scales in space, and hence the ignorance of the spatial rainfall information could affect the simulated streamflow. Calibration of hydrological model parameters is rarely a straightforward task due to parameter equifinality and parameters' 'nature' to compensate for other uncertainties, i.e. structural and forcing input. In here, we analyse the significance of spatial variability of rainfall on streamflow as a function of catchment scale and type, and antecedent conditions using the continuous time, semi-distributed PDM hydrological model at the Upper Lee catchment, UK. The impact of catchment scale and type is assessed using 11 nested catchments ranging in scale from 25 to 1040 km2, and further assessed by artificially changing the catchment characteristics and translating these to model parameters with uncertainty using model regionalisation. Synthetic rainfall events are introduced to directly relate the change in simulated streamflow to the spatial variability of rainfall. Overall, we conclude that the antecedent catchment wetness and catchment type play an important role in controlling the significance of the spatial distribution of rainfall on streamflow. Results show a relationship between hydrograph characteristics (streamflow peak and volume) and the degree of spatial variability of rainfall for the impermeable catchments under dry antecedent conditions, although this decreases at larger scales; however this sensitivity is significantly undermined under wet antecedent conditions. Although there is indication that the impact of spatial rainfall on streamflow varies as a function of catchment scale, the variability of antecedent conditions between the synthetic catchments seems to mask this significance. Finally, hydrograph responses to different spatial patterns in rainfall depend on assumptions used for model parameter estimation and also the spatial variation in parameters indicating the need of an uncertainty framework in such investigation.

Analysis of streambed temperatures in ephemeral channels to determine streamflow frequency and duration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Constantz, James E.; Stonestrom, David A.; Stewart, Amy E.; Niswonger, Richard G.; Smith, Tyson R.

2001-01-01

Spatial and temporal patterns in streamflow are rarely monitored for ephemeral streams. Flashy, erosive streamflows common in ephemeral channels create a series of operational and maintenance problems, which makes it impractical to deploy a series of gaging stations along ephemeral channels. Streambed temperature is a robust and inexpensive parameter to monitor remotely, leading to the possibility of analyzing temperature patterns to estimate streamflow frequency and duration along ephemeral channels. A simulation model was utilized to examine various atmospheric and hydrological upper boundary conditions compared with a series of hypothetical temperature‐monitoring depths within the streambed. Simulation results indicate that streamflow events were distinguished from changing atmospheric conditions with greater certainty using temperatures at shallow depths (e.g., 10–20 cm) as opposed to the streambed surface. Three ephemeral streams in the American Southwest were instrumented to monitor streambed temperature for determining the accuracy of using this approach to ascertain the long‐term temporal and spatial extent of streamflow along each stream channel. Streambed temperature data were collected at the surface or at shallow depth along each stream channel, using thermistors encased in waterproof, single‐channel data loggers tethered to anchors in the channel. On the basis of comparisons with site information, such as direct field observations and upstream flow records, diurnal temperature variations successfully detected the presence and duration of streamflow for all sites.

Streamflow monitoring and statistics for development of water rights claims for Wild and Scenic Rivers, Owyhee Canyonlands Wilderness, Idaho, 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Molly S.; Fosness, Ryan L.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), collected streamflow data in 2012 and estimated streamflow statistics for stream segments designated "Wild," "Scenic," or "Recreational" under the National Wild and Scenic Rivers System in the Owyhee Canyonlands Wilderness in southwestern Idaho. The streamflow statistics were used by BLM to develop and file a draft, federal reserved water right claim in autumn 2012 to protect federally designated "outstanding remarkable values" in the stream segments. BLM determined that the daily mean streamflow equaled or exceeded 20 and 80 percent of the time during bimonthly periods (two periods per month) and the bankfull streamflow are important streamflow thresholds for maintaining outstanding remarkable values. Prior to this study, streamflow statistics estimated using available datasets and tools for the Owyhee Canyonlands Wilderness were inaccurate for use in the water rights claim. Streamflow measurements were made at varying intervals during February–September 2012 at 14 monitoring sites; 2 of the monitoring sites were equipped with telemetered streamgaging equipment. Synthetic streamflow records were created for 11 of the 14 monitoring sites using a partial‑record method or a drainage-area-ratio method. Streamflow records were obtained directly from an operating, long-term streamgage at one monitoring site, and from discontinued streamgages at two monitoring sites. For 10 sites analyzed using the partial-record method, discrete measurements were related to daily mean streamflow at a nearby, telemetered “index” streamgage. Resulting regression equations were used to estimate daily mean and annual peak streamflow at the monitoring sites during the full period of record for the index sites. A synthetic streamflow record for Sheep Creek was developed using a drainage-area-ratio method, because measured streamflows did not relate well to any index site to allow use of the partial-record method. The synthetic and actual daily mean streamflow records were used to estimate daily mean streamflow that was exceeded 80, 50, and 20 percent of the time (80-, 50-, and 20-percent exceedances) for bimonthly and annual periods. Bankfull streamflow statistics were calculated by fitting the synthetic and actual annual peak streamflow records to a log Pearson Type III distribution using Bulletin 17B guidelines in the U.S. Geological Survey PeakFQ program. The coefficients of determination (R2) for the regressions between the monitoring and index sites ranged from 0.74 for Wickahoney Creek to 0.98 for the West Fork Bruneau River and Deep Creek. Confidence in computed streamflow statistics is highest among other sites for the East Fork Owyhee River and the West Fork Bruneau River on the basis of regression statistics, visual fit of the related data, and the range and number of streamflow measurements. Streamflow statistics for sites with the greatest uncertainty included Big Jacks, Little Jacks, Cottonwood, Wickahoney, and Sheep Creeks. The uncertainty in computed streamflow statistics was due to a number of factors which included the distance of index sites relative to monitoring sites, relatively low streamflow conditions that occurred during the study, and the limited number and range of streamflow measurements. However, the computed streamflow statistics are considered the best possible estimates given available datasets in the remote study area. Streamflow measurements over a wider range of hydrologic and climatic conditions would improve the relations between streamflow characteristics at monitoring and index sites. Additionally, field surveys are needed to verify if the streamflows selected for the water rights claims are sufficient for maintaining outstanding remarkable values in the Wild and Scenic rivers included in the study.

Dissolved oxygen in the Tualatin River, Oregon, during winter flow conditions, 1991 and 1992

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelly, V.J.

1996-01-01

Throughout the winter period, November through April, wastewater treatment plants in the Tualatin River Basin discharge from 10,000 to 15,000 pounds per day of biochemical oxygen demand to the river. These loads often increase substantially during storms when streamflow is high. During the early winter season, when streamflow is frequently less than the average winter flow, the treatment plants discharge about 2,000 pounds per day of ammonia. This study focused on the capacity of the Tualatin River to assimilat oxygen-demanding loads under winter streamflow conditions during the 1992 water year, with an emphasis on peak-flow conditions in the river, and winter-base-flow conditions during November 1992. Concentrations of dissolved oxygen throughout the main stem of the river during the winter remained generally high relative to the State standard for Oregon of 6 milligrams per liter. The most important factors controlling oxygen consumption during winter-low-flow conditions were carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand and input of oxygen-depleted waters from tributaries. During peak-flow conditions, reduced travel time and increased dilution associated with the increased streamflow minimized the effect of increased oxygen-demanding loads. During the base-flow period in November 1992, concentrations of dissolved oxygen were consistently below 6 milligrams per liter. A hydrodynamic water-quality model was used to identify the processes depleting dissolved oxygen, including sediment oxygen demand, nitrification, and carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand. Sediment oxygen demand was the most significant factor; nitrification was also important. Hypothetical scenarios were posed to evaluate the effect of different wastewater treatment plant loads during winter-base-flow conditions. Streamflow and temperature were significant factors governing concentrations of dissolved oxygen in the main-stem river.

United States streamflow probabilities based on forecasted La Nina, winter-spring 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Redmond, K.T.

1999-01-01

Although for the last 5 months the TahitiDarwin Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has hovered close to normal, the “equatorial” SOI has remained in the La Niña category and predictions are calling for La Niña conditions this winter. In view of these predictions of continuing La Niña and as a direct extension of previous studies of the relations between El NiñoSouthern Oscil-lation (ENSO) conditions and streamflow in the United States (e.g., Redmond and Koch, 1991; Cayan and Webb, 1992; Redmond and Cayan, 1994; Dettinger et al., 1998; Garen, 1998; Cayan et al., 1999; Dettinger et al., in press), the probabilities that United States streamflows from December 1999 through July 2000 will be in upper and lower thirds (terciles) of the historical records are estimated here. The processes that link ENSO to North American streamflow are discussed in detail in these diagnostics studies. Our justification for generating this forecast is threefold: (1) Cayan et al. (1999) recently have shown that ENSO influences on streamflow variations and extremes are proportionately larger than the corresponding precipitation teleconnections. (2) Redmond and Cayan (1994) and Dettinger et al. (in press) also have shown that the low-frequency evolution of ENSO conditions support long-lead correlations between ENSO and streamflow in many rivers of the conterminous United States. (3) In many rivers, significant (weeks-to-months) delays between precipitation and the release to streams of snowmelt or ground-water discharge can support even longer term forecasts of streamflow than is possible for precipitation. The relatively slow, orderly evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation episodes, the accentuated dependence of streamflow upon ENSO, and the long lags between precipitation and flow encourage us to provide the following analysis as a simple prediction of this year’s river flows.

Winter feeding success of stream trout under different streamflow and turbidity conditions

Treesearch

Jason L. White; Bret C. Harvey

2007-01-01

To investigate the relationship between turbidity and trout feeding success in natural systems, we sampled the stomach contents of resident rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss and coastal cutthroat trout O. clarkii clarkii under different streamflow and turbidity conditions during winter in two northwestern California streams (total sample size¼161). Feeding success...

Hydrological and geophysical investigation of streamflow losses and restoration strategies in an abandoned mine lands setting

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cravotta, Charles A.; Sherrod, Laura; Galeone, Daniel G.; Lehman, Wayne G.; Ackman, Terry E.; Kramer, Alexa

2017-01-01

Longitudinal discharge and water-quality campaigns (seepage runs) were combined with surface-geophysical surveys, hyporheic-temperature profiling, and watershed-scale hydrological monitoring to evaluate the locations, magnitude, and impact of streamwater losses from the West Creek subbasin of the West West Branch Schuylkill River into the underground Oak Hill Mine complex that extends beneath the watershed divide. Abandoned mine drainage (AMD), containing iron and other contaminants, from the Oak Hill Boreholes to the West Branch Schuylkill River was sustained during low-flow conditions and correlated to streamflow lost through the West Creek streambed. During high-flow conditions, streamflow was transmitted throughout West Creek; however, during low-flow conditions, all streamflow from the perennial headwaters was lost within the 300-to-600-m "upper reach" where an 1889 mine map indicated steeply dipping coalbeds underlie the channel. During low-flow conditions, the channel within the "intermediate reach" 700-to-1650-m downstream gained groundwater seepage with higher pH and specific conductance than upstream; however, all streamflow 1650-to-2050-m downstream was lost to underlying mines. Electrical resistivity and electromagnetic conductivity surveys indicated conductive zones beneath the upper reach, where flow loss occurred, and through the intermediate reach, where gains and losses occurred. Temperature probes at 0.06-to-0.10-m depth within the hyporheic zone of the intermediate reach indicated potential downward fluxes as high as 2.1x10-5 m/s. Cumulative streamflow lost from West Creek during seepage runs averaged 53.4 L/s, which equates to 19.3 percent of the daily average discharge of AMD from the Oak Hill Boreholes and a downward flux of 1.70x10-5 m/s across the 2.1-km-by-1.5-m West Creek stream-channel area.

Decomposition of Sources of Errors in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts in a Rainfall-Runoff Dominated Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinha, T.; Arumugam, S.

2012-12-01

Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate forecasts can be effectively utilized in updating water management plans and optimize generation of hydroelectric power. Streamflow in the rainfall-runoff dominated basins critically depend on forecasted precipitation in contrast to snow dominated basins, where initial hydrological conditions (IHCs) are more important. Since precipitation forecasts from Atmosphere-Ocean-General Circulation Models are available at coarse scale (~2.8° by 2.8°), spatial and temporal downscaling of such forecasts are required to implement land surface models, which typically runs on finer spatial and temporal scales. Consequently, multiple sources are introduced at various stages in predicting seasonal streamflow. Therefore, in this study, we addresses the following science questions: 1) How do we attribute the errors in monthly streamflow forecasts to various sources - (i) model errors, (ii) spatio-temporal downscaling, (iii) imprecise initial conditions, iv) no forecasts, and (iv) imprecise forecasts? and 2) How does monthly streamflow forecast errors propagate with different lead time over various seasons? In this study, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is calibrated over Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee, FL in the southeastern US and implemented with observed 1/8° daily forcings to estimate reference streamflow during 1981 to 2010. The VIC model is then forced with different schemes under updated IHCs prior to forecasting period to estimate relative mean square errors due to: a) temporally disaggregation, b) spatial downscaling, c) Reverse Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (imprecise IHCs), d) ESP (no forecasts), and e) ECHAM4.5 precipitation forecasts. Finally, error propagation under different schemes are analyzed with different lead time over different seasons.

Analysis of streamflow-gaging network for monitoring stormwater in small streams in the Puget Sound Basin, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konrad, Christopher P.; Voss, Frank D.

2012-01-01

The streamflow-gaging network in the Puget Sound basin was analyzed for its capacity to monitor stormwater in small streams. The analysis consisted of an inventory of active and inactive gages and an evaluation of the coverage and resolution of the gaging network with an emphasis on lowland areas. The active gaging network covers much of the Puget Lowland largely by gages located at sites on larger streams and rivers. Assessments of stormwater impacts and management will likely require streamflow information with higher spatial resolution than provided by the current gaging network. Monitoring that emphasizes small streams in combination with approaches for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites provides an alternative to expanding the current gaging network that can improve the spatial resolution of streamflow information in the region. The highest priority gaps in the gaging network are low elevation basins close to the Puget Sound shoreline and sites that share less than 10 percent of the drainage area of an active gage. Although small, lowland sites with long records of streamflow are particularly valuable to maintain in the region, other criteria for prioritizing sites in the gaging network should be based on the specific questions that stormwater managers need to answer.

Calculation of streamflow statistics for Ontario and the Great Lakes states

USGS Publications Warehouse

Piggott, Andrew R.; Neff, Brian P.

2005-01-01

Basic, flow-duration, and n-day frequency statistics were calculated for 779 current and historical streamflow gages in Ontario and 3,157 streamflow gages in the Great Lakes states with length-of-record daily mean streamflow data ending on December 31, 2000 and September 30, 2001, respectively. The statistics were determined using the U.S. Geological Survey’s SWSTAT and IOWDM, ANNIE, and LIBANNE software and Linux shell and PERL programming that enabled the mass processing of the data and calculation of the statistics. Verification exercises were performed to assess the accuracy of the processing and calculations. The statistics and descriptions, longitudes and latitudes, and drainage areas for each of the streamflow gages are summarized in ASCII text files and ESRI shapefiles.

The effects of changing land cover on streamflow simulation in Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Beusekom, Ashley E.; Hay, Lauren E.; Viger, Roland; Gould, William A.; Collazo, Jaime; Henareh Khalyani, Azad

2014-01-01

This study quantitatively explores whether land cover changes have a substantive impact on simulated streamflow within the tropical island setting of Puerto Rico. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to compare streamflow simulations based on five static parameterizations of land cover with those based on dynamically varying parameters derived from four land cover scenes for the period 1953-2012. The PRMS simulations based on static land cover illustrated consistent differences in simulated streamflow across the island. It was determined that the scale of the analysis makes a difference: large regions with localized areas that have undergone dramatic land cover change may show negligible difference in total streamflow, but streamflow simulations using dynamic land cover parameters for a highly altered subwatershed clearly demonstrate the effects of changing land cover on simulated streamflow. Incorporating dynamic parameterization in these highly altered watersheds can reduce the predictive uncertainty in simulations of streamflow using PRMS. Hydrologic models that do not consider the projected changes in land cover may be inadequate for water resource management planning for future conditions.

Computing Real-time Streamflow Using Emerging Technologies: Non-contact Radars and the Probability Concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fulton, J. W.; Bjerklie, D. M.; Jones, J. W.; Minear, J. T.

2015-12-01

Measuring streamflow, developing, and maintaining rating curves at new streamgaging stations is both time-consuming and problematic. Hydro 21 was an initiative by the U.S. Geological Survey to provide vision and leadership to identify and evaluate new technologies and methods that had the potential to change the way in which streamgaging is conducted. Since 2014, additional trials have been conducted to evaluate some of the methods promoted by the Hydro 21 Committee. Emerging technologies such as continuous-wave radars and computationally-efficient methods such as the Probability Concept require significantly less field time, promote real-time velocity and streamflow measurements, and apply to unsteady flow conditions such as looped ratings and unsteady-flood flows. Portable and fixed-mount radars have advanced beyond the development phase, are cost effective, and readily available in the marketplace. The Probability Concept is based on an alternative velocity-distribution equation developed by C.-L. Chiu, who pioneered the concept. By measuring the surface-water velocity and correcting for environmental influences such as wind drift, radars offer a reliable alternative for measuring and computing real-time streamflow for a variety of hydraulic conditions. If successful, these tools may allow us to establish ratings more efficiently, assess unsteady flow conditions, and report real-time streamflow at new streamgaging stations.

Hydroacoustic Applications in South Carolina: Technological Advancements in the Streamgaging Network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shelton, John M.

2008-01-01

Until the 1990s, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) had been making streamflow measurements using the same type of equipment for more than 100 years. The Price AA current meter was developed by USGS engineers in 1896. Until recently, the majority of all streamflow measurements made by the USGS were made using this instrument. In the mid-1990s, a new technology emerged in the field of inland streamflow monitoring. The acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP), originally developed for oceanographic work, was adapted for inland streamflow measurements. This instrument is transforming the USGS streamgaging program. The ADCP transmits an acoustic pulse through the water column. A 'Doppler shift' is measured as the signal is reflected off of particles in the water, such as sediment and microorganisms. Based on the assumption that the particles in the water are traveling at the same velocity as the water itself, a water velocity is computed.

Summary of annual mean, maximum, minimum, and L-scale statistics of daily mean streamflow for 712 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging Stations in Texas Through 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Vrabel, Joseph; Roussel, Meghan C.

2007-01-01

Analysts and managers of surface-water resources might have interest in selected statistics of daily mean streamflow for U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations in Texas. The selected statistics are the annual mean, maximum, minimum, and L-scale of daily meanstreamflow. Annual L-scale of streamflow is a robust measure of the variability of the daily mean streamflow for a given year. The USGS, in cooperation with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, initiated in 2006a data and reporting process to generate annual statistics for 712 USGS streamflow-gaging stations in Texas. A graphical depiction of the history of the annual statistics for most active and inactive, continuous-record gaging stations in Texas provides valuable information by conveying the historical perspective of streamflow for the watershed. Each figure consists off our time-series plots of the annual statistics of daily mean streamflow for each streamflow-gaging station. Each of the four plots is augmented with horizontal lines that depict the mean and median annual values of the corresponding statistic for the period of record. Monotonic trends for each of the four annual statistics also are identified using Kendall's T. The history of one or more streamflow-gaging stations could be used in a watershed, river basin, or other regional context by analysts and managers of surface-water resources to guide scientific, regulatory, or other inquiries of streamflow conditions in Texas.

Summary of percentages of zero daily mean streamflow for 712 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Texas through 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Vrabel, Joseph; Roussel, Meghan C.

2007-01-01

Analysts and managers of surface-water resources might have interest in the zero-flow potential for U.S.Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations in Texas. The USGS, in cooperation with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, initiated a data and reporting process to generate summaries of percentages of zero daily mean streamflow for 712 USGS streamflow-gaging stations in Texas. A summary of the percentages of zero daily mean streamflow for most active and inactive, continuous-record gaging stations in Texas provides valuable information by conveying the historical perspective for zero-flow potential for the watershed. The summaries of percentages of zero daily mean streamflow for each station are graphically depicted using two thematic perspectives: annual and monthly. The annual perspective consists of graphs of annual percentages of zero streamflow by year with the addition of lines depicting the mean and median annual percentage of zero streamflow. Monotonic trends in the percentages of zero streamflow also are identified using Kendall's T. The monthly perspective consists of graphs of the percentage of zero streamflow by month with lines added to indicate the mean and median monthly percentage of zero streamflow. One or more summaries could be used in a watershed, river basin, or other regional context by analysts and managers of surface-water resources to guide scientific, regulatory, or other inquiries of zero-flow or other low-flow conditions in Texas.

Summary of annual mean and annual harmonic mean statistics of daily mean streamflow for 620 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Texas through water year 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Heitmuller, Franklin T.

2008-01-01

Analysts and managers of surface-water resources have interest in annual mean and annual harmonic mean statistics of daily mean streamflow for U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations in Texas. The mean streamflow represents streamflow volume, whereas the harmonic mean streamflow represents an appropriate statistic for assessing constituent concentrations that might adversely affect human health. In 2008, the USGS, in cooperation with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, conducted a large-scale documentation of mean and harmonic mean streamflow for 620 active and inactive, continuous-record, streamflow-gaging stations using period of record data through water year 2007. About 99 stations within the Texas USGS streamflow-gaging network are part of the larger national Hydroclimatic Data Network and are identified. The graphical depictions of annual mean and annual harmonic mean statistics in this report provide a historical perspective of streamflow at each station. Each figure consists of three time-series plots, two flow-duration curves, and a statistical summary of the mean annual and annual harmonic mean streamflow statistics for available data for each station.The first time-series plot depicts daily mean streamflow for the period 1900-2007. Flow-duration curves follow and are a graphical depiction of streamflow variability. Next, the remaining two time-series plots depict annual mean and annual harmonic mean streamflow and are augmented with horizontal lines that depict mean and harmonic mean for the period of record. Monotonic trends for the annual mean streamflow and annual harmonic mean streamflow also are identified using Kendall's tau, and the slope of the trend is depicted using the nonparametric (linear) Theil-Sen line, which is only drawn for p-values less than .10 of tau. The history of annual mean and annual harmonic mean streamflow of one or more streamflow-gaging stations could be used in a watershed, river basin, or other regional context by analysts and managers of surface-water resources to guide scientific, regulatory, or other inquiries of streamflow conditions in Texas.

Sensitivity of monthly streamflow forecasts to the quality of rainfall forcing: When do dynamical climate forecasts outperform the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanguy, M.; Prudhomme, C.; Harrigan, S.; Smith, K. A.; Parry, S.

2017-12-01

Forecasting hydrological extremes is challenging, especially at lead times over 1 month for catchments with limited hydrological memory and variable climates. One simple way to derive monthly or seasonal hydrological forecasts is to use historical climate data to drive hydrological models using the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method. This gives a range of possible future streamflow given known initial hydrologic conditions alone. The degree of skill of ESP depends highly on the forecast initialisation month and catchment type. Using dynamic rainfall forecasts as driving data instead of historical data could potentially improve streamflow predictions. A lot of effort is being invested within the meteorological community to improve these forecasts. However, while recent progress shows promise (e.g. NAO in winter), the skill of these forecasts at monthly to seasonal timescales is generally still limited, and the extent to which they might lead to improved hydrological forecasts is an area of active research. Additionally, these meteorological forecasts are currently being produced at 1 month or seasonal time-steps in the UK, whereas hydrological models require forcings at daily or sub-daily time-steps. Keeping in mind these limitations of available rainfall forecasts, the objectives of this study are to find out (i) how accurate monthly dynamical rainfall forecasts need to be to outperform ESP, and (ii) how the method used to disaggregate monthly rainfall forecasts into daily rainfall time series affects results. For the first objective, synthetic rainfall time series were created by increasingly degrading observed data (proxy for a `perfect forecast') from 0 % to +/-50 % error. For the second objective, three different methods were used to disaggregate monthly rainfall data into daily time series. These were used to force a simple lumped hydrological model (GR4J) to generate streamflow predictions at a one-month lead time for over 300 catchments representative of the range of UK's hydro-climatic conditions. These forecasts were then benchmarked against the traditional ESP method. It is hoped that the results of this work will help the meteorological community to identify where to focus their efforts in order to increase the usefulness of their forecasts within hydrological forecasting systems.

Preliminary assessment of streamflow characteristics for selected streams at Fort Gordon, Georgia, 1999-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stamey, Timothy C.

2001-01-01

In 1999, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Signal Center and Fort Gordon, began collection of periodic streamflow data at four streams on the military base to assess and estimate streamflow characteristics of those streams for potential water-supply sources. Simple and reliable methods of determining streamflow characteristics of selected streams on the military base are needed for the initial implementation of the Fort Gordon Integrated Natural Resources Management Plan. Long-term streamflow data from the Butler Creek streamflow gaging station were used along with several concurrent discharge measurements made at three selected partial-record streamflow stations on Fort Gordon to determine selected low-flow streamflow characteristics. Streamflow data were collected and analyzed using standard U.S. Geological Survey methods and computer application programs to verify the use of simple drainage area to discharge ratios, which were used to estimate the low-flow characteristics for the selected streams. Low-flow data computed based on daily mean streamflow include: mean discharges for consecutive 1-, 3-, 7-, 14-, and 30-day period and low-flow estimates of 7Q10, 30Q2, 60Q2, and 90Q2 recurrence intervals. Flow-duration data also were determined for the 10-, 30-, 50-, 70-, and 90-percent exceedence flows. Preliminary analyses of the streamflow indicate that the flow duration and selected low-flow statistics for the selected streams averages from about 0.15 to 2.27 cubic feet per square mile. The long-term gaged streamflow data indicate that the streamflow conditions for the period analyzed were in the 50- to 90-percent flow range, or in which streamflow would be exceeded about 50 to 90 percent of the time.

Impact of Fire on Streamflow in Southern California Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bart, R. R.; Hope, A. S.

2007-12-01

Post-fire streamflow dynamics in Southern California have primarily been studied using small watershed experiments. These studies have concluded that increases in streamflow are a consequence of an increase in soil hydrophobicity, along with a decrease in transpiration rates associated with less vegetation. Extrapolation of the results from these studies to large watersheds (>50 km2) has been limited because large watersheds may not burn completely and other processes may emerge at these scales. In this study, six paired watersheds were used to test the hypothesis that there is an increase in streamflow following fire in large California watersheds (54-632 km2). The percentage of area burned in these watersheds ranged from 23 to 100%. The effects of fires on streamflow were examined at annual, seasonal, and monthly time-steps for the five years following fire. In addition, this study attempted to address fundamental regression assumptions that are commonly ignored, and create uncertainty bounds for evaluating the changes in streamflow before and after fire. Results of this experiment indicate that differences in pre and post-fire streamflows, at all time scales and in all the test catchments, were generally within the 95% uncertainty bounds of the regression equation. It is uncertain whether the apparent lack of significant difference between the pre and post-fire streamflow reflects no actual change in streamflow or is a consequence of the errors and uncertainties in the streamflow data. Furthermore, persistent drought in the years following fire made it challenging to interpret differences in pre and post-fire flows using the paired watershed methodology. The effects of hydrophobicity on post-fire streamflow may have been reduced by a limited number of storm flow events during these drought years. Under these dry conditions, soil moisture was the dominant control over transpirational losses, minimizing the effects of a reduction in vegetation cover. These results indicate that the consequences of fires are likely to vary depending on the post-fire meteorological conditions. The study addresses the challenges of using non-experimental watersheds for paired watershed studies.

Effects of future climate conditions on streamflow dynamics in coastal southern California watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, D.; Zhao, Y.; Raoufi, R.; Beighley, E.; Melack, J.

2017-12-01

The Santa Barbara Coastal - Long Term Ecological Research Project is focused on investigating the relative importance of land and ocean processes in structuring giant kelp forest ecosystems. Understanding how current and future climate conditions influence terrestrial export of water is a central theme for the project. In this study, the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model is forced with past measurement-based (1950 to 2005) and future model-based (2006 to 2100) precipitation and temperature to estimate daily streamflow dynamics. The study region is roughly 800 km2 with 179 watersheds ranging from 0.1 to 123 km2. The model-based forcings are downscaled to a spatial resolution of 6 km by 6 km. The Priestley and Taylor method is used to estimate potential evapotranspiration based on the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations limited climate data approximations and land surface conditions (albedo, leaf area index, land cover) measured from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua satellites. The HRR model is calibrated for the period 1984 to 2013 using USGS streamflow. Median changes in downscaled precipitation projections from 10 models and two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) combined with significance testing, suggest that the distribution of precipitation throughout the rainy season will change: decrease at the beginning of the rainy season (Oct-Dec), increase during peak season (Jan-Mar) and decrease at the end (Apr-Jun). Annually, results suggest a slight increase in precipitation. The decrease of rainfall in spring and fall and increase in winter will lead to a shorter (10-15 days, 8-14%), more intense wet season. Both the magnitude and frequency of large storms (>36 mm/day) are likely to increase. Following the precipitation patterns, streamflow in spring and fall is likely to decrease while winter streamflow and annual peak flows are likely to increase due to increased winter precipitation and intensified large storms. The 100-yr flood during 2045-2100 is projected to increase by 10-160% under RCP 4.5 and 20-140% under RCP 8.5. The magnitudes of changes under RCP 8.5 tend to be higher than RCP 4.5, which indicates that the climate and hydrological response may be more extreme under higher emission scenarios.

Monthly paleostreamflow reconstruction from annual tree-ring chronologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stagge, J. H.; Rosenberg, D. E.; DeRose, R. J.; Rittenour, T. M.

2018-02-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions are increasingly used to characterize annual climate variability prior to the instrumental record, to improve estimates of climate extremes, and to provide a baseline for climate-change projections. To date, paleoclimate records have seen limited engineering use to estimate hydrologic risks because water systems models and managers usually require streamflow input at the monthly scale. This study explores the hypothesis that monthly streamflows can be adequately modeled by statistically decomposing annual flow reconstructions. To test this hypothesis, a multiple linear regression model for monthly streamflow reconstruction is presented that expands the set of predictors to include annual streamflow reconstructions, reconstructions of global circulation, and potential differences among regional tree-ring chronologies related to tree species and geographic location. This approach is used to reconstruct 600 years of monthly streamflows at two sites on the Bear and Logan rivers in northern Utah. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies remain above zero (0.26-0.60) for all months except April and Pearson's correlation coefficients (R) are 0.94 and 0.88 for the Bear and Logan rivers, respectively, confirming that the model can adequately reproduce monthly flows during the reference period (10/1942 to 9/2015). Incorporating a flexible transition between the previous and concurrent annual reconstructed flows was the most important factor for model skill. Expanding the model to include global climate indices and regional tree-ring chronologies produced smaller, but still significant improvements in model fit. The model presented here is the only approach currently available to reconstruct monthly streamflows directly from tree-ring chronologies and climate reconstructions, rather than using resampling of the observed record. With reasonable estimates of monthly flow that extend back in time many centuries, water managers can challenge systems models with a larger range of natural variability in drought and pluvial events and better evaluate extreme events with recurrence intervals longer than the observed record. Establishing this natural baseline is critical when estimating future hydrologic risks under conditions of a non-stationary climate.

Estimated flow-duration curves for selected ungaged sites in Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Studley, S.E.

2001-01-01

Flow-duration curves for 1968-98 were estimated for 32 ungaged sites in the Missouri, Smoky Hill-Saline, Solomon, Marais des Cygnes, Walnut, Verdigris, and Neosho River Basins in Kansas. Also included from a previous report are estimated flow-duration curves for 16 ungaged sites in the Cimarron and lower Arkansas River Basins in Kansas. The method of estimation used six unique factors of flow duration: (1) mean streamflow and percentage duration of mean streamflow, (2) ratio of 1-percent-duration streamflow to mean streamflow, (3) ratio of 0.1-percent-duration streamflow to 1-percent-duration streamflow, (4) ratio of 50-percent-duration streamflow to mean streamflow, (5) percentage duration of appreciable streamflow (0.10 cubic foot per second), and (6) average slope of the flow-duration curve. These factors were previously developed from a regionalized study of flow-duration curves using streamflow data for 1921-76 from streamflow-gaging stations with drainage areas of 100 to 3,000 square miles. The method was tested on a currently (2001) measured, continuous-record streamflow-gaging station on Salt Creek near Lyndon, Kansas, with a drainage area of 111 square miles and was found to adequately estimate the computed flow-duration curve for the station. The method also was tested on a currently (2001) measured, continuous-record, streamflow-gaging station on Soldier Creek near Circleville, Kansas, with a drainage area of 49.3 square miles. The results of the test on Soldier Creek near Circleville indicated that the method could adequately estimate flow-duration curves for sites with drainage areas of less than 100 square miles. The low-flow parts of the estimated flow-duration curves were verified or revised using 137 base-flow discharge measurements made during 1999-2000 at the 32 ungaged sites that were correlated with base-flow measurements and flow-duration analyses performed at nearby, long-term, continuous-record, streamflow-gaging stations (index stations). The method did not adequately estimate the flow-duration curves for two sites in the western one-third of the State because of substantial changes in farming practices (terracing and intensive ground-water withdrawal) that were not accounted for in the two previous studies (Furness, 1959; Jordan, 1983). For these two sites, there was enough historic, continuous-streamflow record available to perform record-extension techniques correlated to their respective index stations for the development of the estimated flow-duration curves. The estimated flow-duration curves at the ungaged sites can be used for projecting future flow frequencies for assessment of total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) or other water-quality constituents, water-availability studies, and for basin-characteristic studies.

Modeling the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change on Streamflow in the Delaware River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, P. Y. S.; Endreny, T. A.; Kroll, C. N.; Williamson, T. N.

2014-12-01

Forest-cover loss and drinking-water reservoirs in the upper Delaware River Basin of New York may alter summer low streamflows, which could degrade the in-stream habitat for the endangered dwarf wedgemussel. Our project analyzes how flow statistics change with land-cover change for 30-year increments of model-simulated streamflow hydrographs for three watersheds of concern to the National Park Service: the East Branch, West Branch, and main stem of the Delaware River. We use four treatments for land cover ranging from historical high to low forest cover. We subject each land cover to adjusted GCM climate scenarios for 1600, 1900, 1940, and 2040 to isolate land cover from potential climate-change effects. Hydrographs are simulated using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER), a TOPMODEL-based United States Geological Survey hydrologic decision-support tool, which uses the variable-source-area concept and water budgets to generate streamflow. Model parameters for each watershed change with land-use, and capture differences in soil-physical properties that control how rainfall infiltrates, evaporates, transpires, is stored in the soil, and moves to the stream. Our results analyze flow statistics used as indicators of hydrologic alteration, and access streamflow events below the critical flow needed to provide sustainable habitat for dwarf wedgemussels. These metrics will demonstrate how changes in climate and land use might affect flow statistics. Initial results show that the 1940 WATER simulation outputs generally match observed unregulated low flows from that time period, while performance for regulated flow from the same time period and from 1600, 1900, and 2040 require model input adjustments. Our study will illustrate how increased forest cover could potentially restore in-stream habitat for the endangered dwarf wedgemussel for current and future climate conditions.

Hydrologic characteristics of the Agua Fria National Monument, central Arizona, determined from the reconnaissance study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fleming, John B.

2005-01-01

Hydrologic conditions in the newly created Agua Fria National Monument were characterized on the basis of existing hydrologic and geologic information, and streamflow data collected in May 2002. The study results are intended to support the Bureau of Land Management's future water-resource management responsibilities, including quantification of a Federal reserved water right within the monument. This report presents the study results, identifies data deficiencies, and describes specific approaches for consideration in future studies. Within the Agua Fria National Monument, the Agua Fria River flows generally from north to south, traversing almost the entire 23-mile length of the monument. Streamflow has been measured continuously at a site near the northern boundary of the monument since 1940. Streamflow statistics for this site, and streamflow measurements from other sites along the Agua Fria River, indicate that the river is perennial in the northern part of the monument but generally is intermittent in downstream reaches. The principal controls on streamflow along the river within the monument appear to be geology, the occurrence and distribution of alluvium, inflow at the northern boundary and from tributary canyons, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. At present, (2004) there is no consistent surface-water quality monitoring program being implemented for the monument. Ground-water recharge within the monument likely results from surface-water losses and direct infiltration of precipitation. Wells are most numerous in the Cordes Junction and Black Canyon City areas. Only eight wells are within the monument. Ground-water quality data for wells in the monument area consist of specific-conductance values and fluoride concentrations. During the study, ground-water quality data were available for only one well within the monument. No ground-water monitoring program is currently in place for the monument or surrounding areas.

In ecoregions across western USA streamflow increases during post-wildfire recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wine, Michael L.; Cadol, Daniel; Makhnin, Oleg

2018-01-01

Continued growth of the human population on Earth will increase pressure on already stressed terrestrial water resources required for drinking water, agriculture, and industry. This stress demands improved understanding of critical controls on water resource availability, particularly in water-limited regions. Mechanistic predictions of future water resource availability are needed because non-stationary conditions exist in the form of changing climatic conditions, land management paradigms, and ecological disturbance regimes. While historically ecological disturbances have been small and could be neglected relative to climatic effects, evidence is accumulating that ecological disturbances, particularly wildfire, can increase regional water availability. However, wildfire hydrologic impacts are typically estimated locally and at small spatial scales, via disparate measurement methods and analysis techniques, and outside the context of climate change projections. Consequently, the relative importance of climate change driven versus wildfire driven impacts on streamflow remains unknown across the western USA. Here we show that considering wildfire in modeling streamflow significantly improves model predictions. Mixed effects modeling attributed 2%-14% of long-term annual streamflow to wildfire effects. The importance of this wildfire-linked streamflow relative to predicted climate change-induced streamflow reductions ranged from 20%-370% of the streamflow decrease predicted to occur by 2050. The rate of post-wildfire vegetation recovery and the proportion of watershed area burned controlled the wildfire effect. Our results demonstrate that in large areas of the western USA affected by wildfire, regional predictions of future water availability are subject to greater structural uncertainty than previously thought. These results suggest that future streamflows may be underestimated in areas affected by increased prevalence of hydrologically relevant ecological disturbances such as wildfire.

Evaluation of Streamflow Requirements for Habitat Protection by Comparison to Streamflow Characteristics at Index Streamflow-Gaging Stations in Southern New England

USGS Publications Warehouse

Armstrong, David S.; Parker, Gene W.; Richards, Todd A.

2003-01-01

Streamflow characteristics and methods for determining streamflow requirements for habitat protection were investigated at 23 active index streamflow-gaging stations in southern New England. Fish communities sampled near index streamflow-gaging stations in Massachusetts have a high percentage of fish that require flowing-water habitats for some or all of their life cycle. The relatively unaltered flow condition at these sites was assumed to be one factor that has contributed to this condition. Monthly flow durations and low flow statistics were determined for the index streamflow-gaging stations for a 25- year period from 1976 to 2000. Annual hydrographs were prepared for each index station from median streamflows at the 50-percent monthly flow duration, normalized by drainage area. A median monthly flow of 1 ft3/s/mi2 was used to split hydrographs into a high-flow period (November–May), and a low-flow period (June–October). The hydrographs were used to classify index stations into groups with similar median monthly flow durations. Index stations were divided into four regional groups, roughly paralleling the coast, to characterize streamflows for November to May; and into two groups, on the basis of base-flow index and percentage of sand and gravel in the contributing area, for June to October. For the June to October period, for index stations with a high base-flow index and contributing areas greater than 20 percent sand and gravel, median streamflows at the 50-percent monthly flow duration, normalized by drainage area, were 0.57, 0.49, and 0.46 ft3/s/mi2 for July, August, and September, respectively. For index stations with a low base-flow index and contributing areas less than 20 percent sand and gravel, median streamflows at the 50-percent monthly flow duration, normalized by drainage area, were 0.34, 0.28, and 0.27 ft3/s/mi2 for July, August, and September, respectively. Streamflow variability between wet and dry years can be characterized by use of the interquartile range of median streamflows at selected monthly flow durations. For example, the median Q50 discharge for August had an interquartile range of 0.30 to 0.87 ft3/s/mi2 for the high-flow group and 0.16 to 0.47 ft3/s/mi2 for the low-flow group. Streamflow requirements for habitat protection were determined for 23 index stations by use of three methods based on hydrologic records, the Range of Variability Approach, the Tennant method, and the New England Aquatic-Base-Flow method. Normalized flow management targets determined by the Range of Variability Approach for July, August, and September ranged between 0.21 and 0.84 ft3/s/mi2 for the low monthly flow duration group, and 0.37 and 1.27 ft3/s/mi2 for the high monthly flow duration group. Median streamflow requirements for habitat protection during summer for the 23 index streamflow-gaging stations determined by the Tennant method, normalized by drainage area, were 0.81, 0.61, and 0.21 ft3/s/mi2 for the Tennant 40-, 30-, and 10-percent of the mean annual flow methods, representing good, fair, and poor stream habitat conditions in summer, according to Tennant. New England Aquatic-Base-Flow streamflow requirements for habitat protection during summer were determined from median of monthly mean flows for August for index streamflow-gaging stations having drainage areas greater than 50 mi2 . For five index streamflow-gaging stations in the low median monthly flow group, the average median monthly mean streamflow for August, normalized by drainage area, was 0.48 ft3/s/mi2. Streamflow requirements for habitat protection were determined for riffle habitats near 10 index stations by use of two methods based on hydraulic ratings, the Wetted-Perimeter and R2Cross methods. Hydraulic parameters required by these methods were simulated by calibrated HEC-RAS models. Wetted-Perimeter streamflow requirements for habitat protection, normalized by drainage area, ranged between 0.13 and 0.58 ft3/s/mi2, and had a median value of 0.37 ft3/s/mi2. Streamflow requirements determined by the R2Cross 3-of-3 criteria method ranged between 0.39 and 2.1 ft3/s/mi2 , and had a median of 0.84 ft3/s/mi2. Streamflow requirements determined by the R2Cross 2-of-3 criteria method, normalized by drainage area, ranged between 0.16 and 0.85 ft3/s/mi2 and had a median of 0.36 ft3/s/mi2 , respectively. Streamflow requirements determined by the different methods were evaluated by comparison to streamflow statistics from the index streamflow-gaging stations.

Extreme Drought Conditions in the Rio Grande/Bravo Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutiérrez, F.; Dracup, J. A.

2001-12-01

The Treaty of February 3, 1944 entitled "Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande" between the U.S. and Mexico regulates the distribution of flows of the rivers between these two countries. The treaty is based on hydrological data available up to 1944. Using new (historical and paleoclimatological) data, the water balance presented in the Treaty is re-examinated and the 431,721,000 m3/year allocation for USA during "extreme drought conditions" is re-evaluated. The authors define "extreme drought conditions" for this basin and a hydrological drought analysis is carried out using a streamflow simulation model. The analysis is complemented with an analysis of the effects of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on precipitation and streamflow. The results of this research will be applicable to potential changes in the current water resources management policies on the basin. Given the social, economical and political importance of this basin, the findings of this research potentially will have significant impacts. This research is founded by the NSF fund SAHRA (Science and Technology Center to study and promote the "Sustainability of Water Resources in Semi-Arid Regions" at the University of Arizona).

Estimating natural monthly streamflows in California and the likelihood of anthropogenic modification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carlisle, Daren M.; Wolock, David M.; Howard, Jeannette K.; Grantham, Theodore E.; Fesenmyer, Kurt; Wieczorek, Michael

2016-12-12

Because natural patterns of streamflow are a fundamental property of the health of streams, there is a critical need to quantify the degree to which human activities have modified natural streamflows. A requirement for assessing streamflow modification in a given stream is a reliable estimate of flows expected in the absence of human influences. Although there are many techniques to predict streamflows in specific river basins, there is a lack of approaches for making predictions of natural conditions across large regions and over many decades. In this study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with The Nature Conservancy and Trout Unlimited, the primary objective was to develop empirical models that predict natural (that is, unaffected by land use or water management) monthly streamflows from 1950 to 2012 for all stream segments in California. Models were developed using measured streamflow data from the existing network of streams where daily flow monitoring occurs, but where the drainage basins have minimal human influences. Widely available data on monthly weather conditions and the physical attributes of river basins were used as predictor variables. Performance of regional-scale models was comparable to that of published mechanistic models for specific river basins, indicating the models can be reliably used to estimate natural monthly flows in most California streams. A second objective was to develop a model that predicts the likelihood that streams experience modified hydrology. New models were developed to predict modified streamflows at 558 streamflow monitoring sites in California where human activities affect the hydrology, using basin-scale geospatial indicators of land use and water management. Performance of these models was less reliable than that for the natural-flow models, but results indicate the models could be used to provide a simple screening tool for identifying, across the State of California, which streams may be experiencing anthropogenic flow modification.

Soil Moisture Initialization Error and Subgrid Variability of Precipitation in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; Walker, Gregory K.; Mahanama, Sarith P.; Reichle, Rolf H.

2013-01-01

Offline simulations over the conterminous United States (CONUS) with a land surface model are used to address two issues relevant to the forecasting of large-scale seasonal streamflow: (i) the extent to which errors in soil moisture initialization degrade streamflow forecasts, and (ii) the extent to which a realistic increase in the spatial resolution of forecasted precipitation would improve streamflow forecasts. The addition of error to a soil moisture initialization field is found to lead to a nearly proportional reduction in streamflow forecast skill. The linearity of the response allows the determination of a lower bound for the increase in streamflow forecast skill achievable through improved soil moisture estimation, e.g., through satellite-based soil moisture measurements. An increase in the resolution of precipitation is found to have an impact on large-scale streamflow forecasts only when evaporation variance is significant relative to the precipitation variance. This condition is met only in the western half of the CONUS domain. Taken together, the two studies demonstrate the utility of a continental-scale land surface modeling system as a tool for addressing the science of hydrological prediction.

Unravelling connections between river flow and large-scale climate: experiences from Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hannah, D. M.; Kingston, D. G.; Lavers, D.; Stagge, J. H.; Tallaksen, L. M.

2016-12-01

The United Nations has identified better knowledge of large-scale water cycle processes as essential for socio-economic development and global water-food-energy security. In this context, and given the ever-growing concerns about climate change/ variability and human impacts on hydrology, there is an urgent research need: (a) to quantify space-time variability in regional river flow, and (b) to improve hydroclimatological understanding of climate-flow connections as a basis for identifying current and future water-related issues. In this paper, we draw together studies undertaken at the pan-European scale: (1) to evaluate current methods for assessing space-time dynamics for different streamflow metrics (annual regimes, low flows and high flows) and for linking flow variability to atmospheric drivers (circulation indices, air-masses, gridded climate fields and vapour flux); and (2) to propose a plan for future research connecting streamflow and the atmospheric conditions in Europe and elsewhere. We believe this research makes a useful, unique contribution to the literature through a systematic inter-comparison of different streamflow metrics and atmospheric descriptors. In our findings, we highlight the need to consider appropriate atmospheric descriptors (dependent on the target flow metric and region of interest) and to develop analytical techniques that best characterise connections in the ocean-atmosphere-land surface process chain. We call for the need to consider not only atmospheric interactions, but also the role of the river basin-scale terrestrial hydrological processes in modifying the climate signal response of river flows.

Groundwater Pumping and Streamflow in the Yuba Basin, Sacramento Valley, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moss, D. R.; Fogg, G. E.; Wallender, W. W.

2011-12-01

Water transfers during drought in California's Sacramento Valley can lead to increased groundwater pumping, and as yet unknown effects on stream baseflow. Two existing groundwater models of the greater Sacramento Valley together with localized, monitoring of groundwater level fluctuations adjacent to the Bear, Feather, and Yuba Rivers, indicate cause and effect relations between the pumping and streamflow. The models are the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM) developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and C2VSIM developed by Department of Water Resources. Using two models which have similar complexity and data but differing approaches to the agricultural water boundary condition illuminates both the water budget and its uncertainty. Water budget and flux data for localized areas can be obtained from the models allowing for parameters such as precipitation, irrigation recharge, and streamflow to be compared to pumping on different temporal scales. Continuous groundwater level measurements at nested, near-stream piezometers show seasonal variations in streamflow and groundwater levels as well as the timing and magnitude of recharge and pumping. Preliminary results indicate that during years with relatively wet conditions 65 - 70% of the surface recharge for the groundwater system comes from irrigation and precipitation and 30 - 35% comes from streamflow losses. The models further indicate that during years with relatively dry conditions, 55 - 60% of the surface recharge for the groundwater system comes from irrigation and precipitation while 40 - 45% comes from streamflow losses. The models irrigation water demand, surface-water and groundwater supply, and deep percolation are integrated producing values for irrigation pumping. Groundwater extractions during the growing season, approximately between April and October, increase by almost 200%. The effects of increased pumping seasonally are not readily evident in stream stage measurements. However, during dry time periods net streamflow gains are about half of the gains seen during wet period.

Recent changes in ecologically-relevant streamflows in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ficklin, D. L.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Knouft, J.; Robeson, S. M.

2017-12-01

The streamflow regime is a primary regulator of the composition and functioning of freshwater ecosystems. Growth, behavior, and/or reproduction of most freshwater organisms are influenced in some way by the amount of water, including high and low flows, and seasonal fluctuations in water availability in a particular habitat. This work examines trends in ecologically-relevant measures of streamflows from 1980-2015 for over 3,000 streamflow gauges located throughout Canada and United States. Specifically, we examine trends in water year mean flow and variability, as well as trends in high (95th and 99th percentile), low (1st and 5th percentile), and 7- and 3-day maximum and minimum streamflows. The results indicate a clear regional delineation of significant increases of ecologically-relevant streamflows in the northern Central Plains/south-central Canada, upper Midwest (except Michigan and Wisconsin) and northeastern United States/southeastern Canada, while significant decreases are found throughout the southeastern and southwestern United States. The regional agreement between streamflow trends in regulated and unregulated watersheds indicate a widespread climatic influence that is not masked by human alteration of streamflows. We explore the degree to which climate factors explain both interannual variability and observed trends in streamflow to better elucidate the role of top-down climate drivers versus bottom-up land surface drivers on recent trends in ecologically-relevant streamflow. We also explore how these changes in streamflow are affecting water quality such as water temperature and sediment concentration. This type of analysis will aid in highlighting streamflow regions in the United States that are currently sensitive to changes in climate, but may also aid in understanding which regions may be sensitive to future climatic changes.

Methods for estimating streamflow at mountain fronts in southern New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waltemeyer, S.D.

1994-01-01

The infiltration of streamflow is potential recharge to alluvial-basin aquifers at or near mountain fronts in southern New Mexico. Data for 13 streamflow-gaging stations were used to determine a relation between mean annual stream- flow and basin and climatic conditions. Regression analysis was used to develop an equation that can be used to estimate mean annual streamflow on the basis of drainage areas and mean annual precipi- tation. The average standard error of estimate for this equation is 46 percent. Regression analysis also was used to develop an equation to estimate mean annual streamflow on the basis of active- channel width. Measurements of the width of active channels were determined for 6 of the 13 gaging stations. The average standard error of estimate for this relation is 29 percent. Stream- flow estimates made using a regression equation based on channel geometry are considered more reliable than estimates made from an equation based on regional relations of basin and climatic conditions. The sample size used to develop these relations was small, however, and the reported standard error of estimate may not represent that of the entire population. Active-channel-width measurements were made at 23 ungaged sites along the Rio Grande upstream from Elephant Butte Reservoir. Data for additional sites would be needed for a more comprehensive assessment of mean annual streamflow in southern New Mexico.

Streamflow changes in the Sierra Nevada, California, simulated using a statistically downscaled general circulation model scenario of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilby, Robert L.; Dettinger, Michael D.

2000-01-01

Simulations of future climate using general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that rising concentrations of greenhouse gases may have significant consequences for the global climate. Of less certainty is the extent to which regional scale (i.e., sub-GCM grid) environmental processes will be affected. In this chapter, a range of downscaling techniques are critiqued. Then a relatively simple (yet robust) statistical downscaling technique and its use in the modelling of future runoff scenarios for three river basins in the Sierra Nevada, California, is described. This region was selected because GCM experiments driven by combined greenhouse-gas and sulphate-aerosol forcings consistently show major changes in the hydro-climate of the southwest United States by the end of the 21st century. The regression-based downscaling method was used to simulate daily rainfall and temperature series for streamflow modelling in three Californian river basins under current-and future-climate conditions. The downscaling involved just three predictor variables (specific humidity, zonal velocity component of airflow, and 500 hPa geopotential heights) supplied by the U.K. Meteorological Office couple ocean-atmosphere model (HadCM2) for the grid point nearest the target basins. When evaluated using independent data, the model showed reasonable skill at reproducing observed area-average precipitation, temperature, and concomitant streamflow variations. Overall, the downscaled data resulted in slight underestimates of mean annual streamflow due to underestimates of precipitation in spring and positive temperature biases in winter. Differences in the skill of simulated streamflows amongst the three basins were attributed to the smoothing effects of snowpack on streamflow responses to climate forcing. The Merced and American River basins drain the western, windward slope of the Sierra Nevada and are snowmelt dominated, whereas the Carson River drains the eastern, leeward slope and is a mix of rainfall runoff and snowmelt runoff. Simulated streamflow in the American River responds rapidly and sensitively to daily-scale temperature and precipitation fluctuations and errors; in the Merced and Carson Rivers, the response to the same short-term influences is much less. Consequently, the skill of simulated flows was significantly lower in the American River model than in the Carson and Merced. The physiography of the three basins also accounts for differences in their sensitivities to future climate change. Increases in winter precipitation exceeding +100% coupled with mean temperature rises greater than +2°C result in increased winter streamflows in all three basins. In the Merced and Carson basins, these streamflow increases reflect large changes in winter snowpack, whereas the streamflow changes in the lower elevation American basin are driven primarily by rainfall runoff. Furthermore, reductions in winter snowpack in the American River basin, owing to less precipitation falling as snow and earlier melting of snow at middle elevations, lead to less spring and summer streamflow. Taken collectively, the downscaling results suggest significant changes to both the timing and magnitude of streamflows in the Sierra Nevada by the end of the 21st Century. In the higher elevation basins, the HadCM2 scenario implies more annual streamflow and more streamflow during the spring and summer months that are critical for water-resources management in California. Depending on the relative significance of rainfall runoff and snowmelt, each basin responds in its own way to regional climate forcing. Generally, then, climate scenarios need to be specified — by whatever means — with sufficient temporal and spatial resolution to capture subtle orographic influences if projections of climate-change responses are to be useful and reproducible.

Reconstructing pre-instrumental streamflow in Eastern Australia using a water balance approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tozer, C. R.; Kiem, A. S.; Vance, T. R.; Roberts, J. L.; Curran, M. A. J.; Moy, A. D.

2018-03-01

Streamflow reconstructions based on paleoclimate proxies provide much longer records than the short instrumental period records on which water resource management plans are currently based. In Australia there is a lack of in-situ high resolution paleoclimate proxy records, but remote proxies with teleconnections to Australian climate have utility in producing streamflow reconstructions. Here we investigate, via a case study for a catchment in eastern Australia, the novel use of an Antarctic ice-core based rainfall reconstruction within a Budyko-framework to reconstruct ∼1000 years of annual streamflow. The resulting streamflow reconstruction captures interannual to decadal variability in the instrumental streamflow, validating both the use of the ice core rainfall proxy record and the Budyko-framework method. In the preinstrumental era the streamflow reconstruction shows longer wet and dry epochs and periods of streamflow variability that are higher than observed in the instrumental era. Importantly, for both the instrumental record and preinstrumental reconstructions, the wet (dry) epochs in the rainfall record are shorter (longer) in the streamflow record and this non-linearity must be considered when inferring hydroclimatic risk or historical water availability directly from rainfall proxy records alone. These insights provide a better understanding of present infrastructure vulnerability in the context of past climate variability for eastern Australia. The streamflow reconstruction presented here also provides a better understanding of the range of hydroclimatic variability possible, and therefore represents a more realistic baseline on which to quantify the potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change on water security.

Streamflow record extension for selected streams in the Susitna River Basin, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curran, Janet H.

2012-01-01

Daily streamflow records for water years 1950–2010 in the Susitna River Basin range in length from 4 to 57 years, and many are distributed within that period in a way that might not adequately represent long-term streamflow conditions. Streamflow in the basin is affected by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a multi-decadal climate pattern that shifted from a cool phase to a warm phase in 1976. Records for many streamgages in the basin fell mostly within one phase of the PDO, such that monthly and annual statistics from observed records might not reflect streamflow conditions over a longer period. Correlations between daily discharge values sufficed for extending streamflow records at 11 of the 14 streamgages in the basin on the basis of relatively long-term records for one or more of the streamgages within the basin, or one outside the basin, that were defined as index stations. Streamflow at the index stations was hydrologically responsive to glacier melt and snowmelt, and correlated well with flow from similar high-elevation, glaciated basins, but flow in low-elevation basins without glaciers could not be correlated to flow at any of the index stations. Kendall-Theil Robust Line multi-segment regression equations developed for one or more index stations were used to extend daily discharge values to the full 61-year period for all 11 streamgages. Monthly and annual statistics prepared for the extended records show shifts in timing of breakup and freeze-up and magnitude of snowmelt peaks largely predicted by the PDO phase.

Rainfall-runoff characteristics and effects of increased urban density on streamflow and infiltration in the eastern part of the San Jacinto River basin, Riverside County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guay, Joel R.

2002-01-01

To better understand the rainfall-runoff characteristics of the eastern part of the San Jacinto River Basin and to estimate the effects of increased urbanization on streamflow, channel infiltration, and land-surface infiltration, a long-term (1950?98) time series of monthly flows in and out of the channels and land surfaces were simulated using the Hydrologic Simulation Program- FORTRAN (HSPF) rainfall-runoff model. Channel and land-surface infiltration includes rainfall or runoff that infiltrates past the zone of evapotranspiration and may become ground-water recharge. The study area encompasses about 256 square miles of the San Jacinto River drainage basin in Riverside County, California. Daily streamflow (for periods with available data between 1950 and 1998), and daily rainfall and evaporation (1950?98) data; monthly reservoir storage data (1961?98); and estimated mean annual reservoir inflow data (for 1974 conditions) were used to calibrate the rainfall-runoff model. Measured and simulated mean annual streamflows for the San Jacinto River near San Jacinto streamflow-gaging station (North-South Fork subbasin) for 1950?91 and 1997?98 were 14,000 and 14,200 acre-feet, respectively, a difference of 1.4 percent. The standard error of the mean for measured and simulated annual streamflow in the North-South Fork subbasin was 3,520 and 3,160 acre-feet, respectively. Measured and simulated mean annual streamflows for the Bautista Creek streamflow-gaging station (Bautista Creek subbasin) for 1950?98 were 980 acre-feet and 991 acre-feet, respectively, a difference of 1.1 percent. The standard error of the mean for measured and simulated annual streamflow in the Bautista Creek subbasin was 299 and 217 acre-feet, respectively. Measured and simulated annual streamflows for the San Jacinto River above State Street near San Jacinto streamflow-gaging station (Poppet subbasin) for 1998 were 23,400 and 23,500 acre-feet, respectively, a difference of 0.4 percent. The simulated mean annual streamflow for the State Street gaging station at the outlet of the study basin and the simulated mean annual basin infiltration (combined infiltration from all the channels and land surfaces) were 8,720 and 41,600 acre-feet, respectively, for water years 1950-98. Simulated annual streamflow at the State Street gaging station ranged from 16.8 acre-feet in water year 1961 to 70,400 acre-feet in water year 1993, and simulated basin infiltration ranged from 2,770 acre-feet in water year 1961 to 149,000 acre-feet in water year 1983.The effects of increased urbanization on the hydrology of the study basin were evaluated by increasing the size of the effective impervious and non-effective impervious urban areas simulated in the calibrated rainfall-runoff model by 50 and 100 percent, respectively. The rainfall-runoff model simulated a long-term time series of monthly flows in and out of the channels and land surfaces using daily rainfall and potential evaporation data for water years 1950?98. Increasing the effective impervious and non-effective impervious urban areas by 100 percent resulted in a 5-percent increase in simulated mean annual streamflow at the State Street gaging station, and a 2.2-percent increase in simulated basin infiltration. Results of a frequency analysis of the simulated annual streamflow at the State Street gaging station showed that when effective impervious and non-effective impervious areas were increased 100 percent, simulated annual streamflow increased about 100 percent for low-flow conditions and was unchanged for high-flow conditions. The simulated increase in streamflow at the State Street gaging station potentially could infiltrate along the stream channel further downstream, outside of the model area.

Global analysis of seasonal streamflow predictability using an ensemble prediction system and observations from 6192 small catchments worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; Peña-Arancibia, Jorge L.; Wood, Eric F.; Sheffield, Justin; Beck, Hylke E.

2013-05-01

Ideally, a seasonal streamflow forecasting system would ingest skilful climate forecasts and propagate these through calibrated hydrological models initialized with observed catchment conditions. At global scale, practical problems exist in each of these aspects. For the first time, we analyzed theoretical and actual skill in bimonthly streamflow forecasts from a global ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) system. Forecasts were generated six times per year for 1979-2008 by an initialized hydrological model and an ensemble of 1° resolution daily climate estimates for the preceding 30 years. A post-ESP conditional sampling method was applied to 2.6% of forecasts, based on predictive relationships between precipitation and 1 of 21 climate indices prior to the forecast date. Theoretical skill was assessed against a reference run with historic forcing. Actual skill was assessed against streamflow records for 6192 small (<10,000 km2) catchments worldwide. The results show that initial catchment conditions provide the main source of skill. Post-ESP sampling enhanced skill in equatorial South America and Southeast Asia, particularly in terms of tercile probability skill, due to the persistence and influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Actual skill was on average 54% of theoretical skill but considerably more for selected regions and times of year. The realized fraction of the theoretical skill probably depended primarily on the quality of precipitation estimates. Forecast skill could be predicted as the product of theoretical skill and historic model performance. Increases in seasonal forecast skill are likely to require improvement in the observation of precipitation and initial hydrological conditions.

On the Value of Climate Elasticity Indices to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow Projection using an ensemble of bias corrected CMIP5 dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demirel, Mehmet; Moradkhani, Hamid

2015-04-01

Changes in two climate elasticity indices, i.e. temperature and precipitation elasticity of streamflow, were investigated using an ensemble of bias corrected CMIP5 dataset as forcing to two hydrologic models. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) hydrologic models, were calibrated at 1/16 degree resolution and the simulated streamflow was routed to the basin outlet of interest. We estimated precipitation and temperature elasticity of streamflow from: (1) observed streamflow; (2) simulated streamflow by VIC and SAC-SMA models using observed climate for the current climate (1963-2003); (3) simulated streamflow using simulated climate from 10 GCM - CMIP5 dataset for the future climate (2010-2099) including two concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two downscaled climate products (BCSD and MACA). The streamflow sensitivity to long-term (e.g., 30-year) average annual changes in temperature and precipitation is estimated for three periods i.e. 2010-40, 2040-70 and 2070-99. We compared the results of the three cases to reflect on the value of precipitation and temperature indices to assess the climate change impacts on Columbia River streamflow. Moreover, these three cases for two models are used to assess the effects of different uncertainty sources (model forcing, model structure and different pathways) on the two climate elasticity indices.

Estimating the Magnitude and Frequency of Peak Streamflows for Ungaged Sites on Streams in Alaska and Conterminous Basins in Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curran, Janet H.; Meyer, David F.; Tasker, Gary D.

2003-01-01

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of peak streamflow are needed across Alaska for floodplain management, cost-effective design of floodway structures such as bridges and culverts, and other water-resource management issues. Peak-streamflow magnitudes for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence-interval flows were computed for 301 streamflow-gaging and partial-record stations in Alaska and 60 stations in conterminous basins of Canada. Flows were analyzed from data through the 1999 water year using a log-Pearson Type III analysis. The State was divided into seven hydrologically distinct streamflow analysis regions for this analysis, in conjunction with a concurrent study of low and high flows. New generalized skew coefficients were developed for each region using station skew coefficients for stations with at least 25 years of systematic peak-streamflow data. Equations for estimating peak streamflows at ungaged locations were developed for Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada using a generalized least-squares regression model. A set of predictive equations for estimating the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year peak streamflows was developed for each streamflow analysis region from peak-streamflow magnitudes and physical and climatic basin characteristics. These equations may be used for unregulated streams without flow diversions, dams, periodically releasing glacial impoundments, or other streamflow conditions not correlated to basin characteristics. Basin characteristics should be obtained using methods similar to those used in this report to preserve the statistical integrity of the equations.

Spawning chronology, nest site selection and nest success of smallmouth bass during benign streamflow conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dauwalter, D.C.; Fisher, W.L.

2007-01-01

We documented the nesting chronology, nest site selection and nest success of smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu in an upstream (4th order) and downstream (5th order) reach of Baron Fork Creek, Oklahoma. Males started nesting in mid-Apr. when water temperatures increased to 16.9 C upstream, and in late-Apr. when temperatures increased to 16.2 C downstream. Streamflows were low (77% upstream to 82% downstream of mean Apr. streamflow, and 12 and 18% of meanjun. streamflow; 47 and 55 y of record), and decreased throughout the spawning period. Larger males nested first upstream, as has been observed in other populations, but not downstream. Upstream, progeny in 62 of 153 nests developed to swim-up stage. Downstream, progeny in 31 of 73 nests developed to swim-up. Nesting densities upstream (147/km) and downstream (100/km) were both higher than any densities previously reported. Males selected nest sites with intermediate water depths, low water velocity and near cover, behavior that is typical of smallmouth bass. Documented nest failures resulted from human disturbance, angling, and longear sunfish predation. Logistic exposure models showed that water velocity at the nest was negatively related and length of the guarding male was positively related to nest success upstream. Male length and number of degree days were both positively related to nest success downstream. Our results, and those of other studies, suggest that biological factors account for most nest failures during benign (stable, low flow) streamflow conditions, whereas nest failures attributed to substrate mobility or nest abandonment dominate when harsh streamflow conditions (spring floods) coincide with the spawning season.

Predicting the natural flow regime: Models for assessing hydrological alteration in streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carlisle, D.M.; Falcone, J.; Wolock, D.M.; Meador, M.R.; Norris, R.H.

2009-01-01

Understanding the extent to which natural streamflow characteristics have been altered is an important consideration for ecological assessments of streams. Assessing hydrologic condition requires that we quantify the attributes of the flow regime that would be expected in the absence of anthropogenic modifications. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether selected streamflow characteristics could be predicted at regional and national scales using geospatial data. Long-term, gaged river basins distributed throughout the contiguous US that had streamflow characteristics representing least disturbed or near pristine conditions were identified. Thirteen metrics of the magnitude, frequency, duration, timing and rate of change of streamflow were calculated using a 20-50 year period of record for each site. We used random forests (RF), a robust statistical modelling approach, to develop models that predicted the value for each streamflow metric using natural watershed characteristics. We compared the performance (i.e. bias and precision) of national- and regional-scale predictive models to that of models based on landscape classifications, including major river basins, ecoregions and hydrologic landscape regions (HLR). For all hydrologic metrics, landscape stratification models produced estimates that were less biased and more precise than a null model that accounted for no natural variability. Predictive models at the national and regional scale performed equally well, and substantially improved predictions of all hydrologic metrics relative to landscape stratification models. Prediction error rates ranged from 15 to 40%, but were 25% for most metrics. We selected three gaged, non-reference sites to illustrate how predictive models could be used to assess hydrologic condition. These examples show how the models accurately estimate predisturbance conditions and are sensitive to changes in streamflow variability associated with long-term land-use change. We also demonstrate how the models can be applied to predict expected natural flow characteristics at ungaged sites. ?? 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Measuring real-time streamflow using emerging technologies: Radar, hydroacoustics, and the probability concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fulton, John; Ostrowski, Joseph

2008-07-01

SummaryForecasting streamflow during extreme hydrologic events such as floods can be problematic. This is particularly true when flow is unsteady, and river forecasts rely on models that require uniform-flow rating curves to route water from one forecast point to another. As a result, alternative methods for measuring streamflow are needed to properly route flood waves and account for inertial and pressure forces in natural channels dominated by nonuniform-flow conditions such as mild water surface slopes, backwater, tributary inflows, and reservoir operations. The objective of the demonstration was to use emerging technologies to measure instantaneous streamflow in open channels at two existing US Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Pennsylvania. Surface-water and instream-point velocities were measured using hand-held radar and hydroacoustics. Streamflow was computed using the probability concept, which requires velocity data from a single vertical containing the maximum instream velocity. The percent difference in streamflow at the Susquehanna River at Bloomsburg, PA ranged from 0% to 8% with an average difference of 4% and standard deviation of 8.81 m 3/s. The percent difference in streamflow at Chartiers Creek at Carnegie, PA ranged from 0% to 11% with an average difference of 5% and standard deviation of 0.28 m 3/s. New generation equipment is being tested and developed to advance the use of radar-derived surface-water velocity and instantaneous streamflow to facilitate the collection and transmission of real-time streamflow that can be used to parameterize hydraulic routing models.

Measuring real-time streamflow using emerging technologies: Radar, hydroacoustics, and the probability concept

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fulton, J.; Ostrowski, J.

2008-01-01

Forecasting streamflow during extreme hydrologic events such as floods can be problematic. This is particularly true when flow is unsteady, and river forecasts rely on models that require uniform-flow rating curves to route water from one forecast point to another. As a result, alternative methods for measuring streamflow are needed to properly route flood waves and account for inertial and pressure forces in natural channels dominated by nonuniform-flow conditions such as mild water surface slopes, backwater, tributary inflows, and reservoir operations. The objective of the demonstration was to use emerging technologies to measure instantaneous streamflow in open channels at two existing US Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Pennsylvania. Surface-water and instream-point velocities were measured using hand-held radar and hydroacoustics. Streamflow was computed using the probability concept, which requires velocity data from a single vertical containing the maximum instream velocity. The percent difference in streamflow at the Susquehanna River at Bloomsburg, PA ranged from 0% to 8% with an average difference of 4% and standard deviation of 8.81 m3/s. The percent difference in streamflow at Chartiers Creek at Carnegie, PA ranged from 0% to 11% with an average difference of 5% and standard deviation of 0.28 m3/s. New generation equipment is being tested and developed to advance the use of radar-derived surface-water velocity and instantaneous streamflow to facilitate the collection and transmission of real-time streamflow that can be used to parameterize hydraulic routing models.

IOD and ENSO impacts on the extreme stream-flows of Citarum river in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahu, Netrananda; Behera, Swadhin K.; Yamashiki, Yosuke; Takara, Kaoru; Yamagata, Toshio

2012-10-01

Extreme stream-flow events of Citarum River are derived from the daily stream-flows at the Nanjung gauge station. Those events are identified based on their persistently extreme flows for 6 or more days during boreal fall when the seasonal mean stream-flow starts peaking-up from the lowest seasonal flows of June-August. Most of the extreme events of high-streamflows were related to La Niña conditions of tropical Pacific. A few of them were also associated with the negative phases of IOD and the newly identified El Niño Modoki. Unlike the cases of extreme high streamflows, extreme low streamflow events are seen to be associated with the positive IODs. Nevertheless, it was also found that the low-stream-flow events related to positive IOD events were also associated with El Niño events except for one independent event of 1977. Because the occurrence season coincides the peak season of IOD, not only the picked extreme events are seen to fall under the IOD seasons but also there exists a statistically significant correlation of 0.51 between the seasonal IOD index and the seasonal streamflows. There also exists a significant lag correlation when IOD of June-August season leads the streamflows of September-November. A significant but lower correlation coefficient (0.39) is also found between the seasonal streamflow and El Niño for September-November season only.

Streamflow gain and loss of selected streams in northern Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Freiwald, David A.

1987-01-01

This map shows streamflow gain and loss measurements (seepage runs) on the Crooked, Osage, and Spavinaw Creeks, and Illinois, Kings, Mulberry, Spring, and Strawberry Rivers during the low-flow conditions from September 1982 to October 1984. Data indicated that streamflow gains and losses resulted from differences in lithology of the predominately carbonate rocks and from the presence of faults. The Kings and Strawberry Rivers and Osage Creek were gaining streams throughout their length, however wastewater discharges precluded an accurate determination on Osage Creek. Crooked and Spavinaw Creeks and the Illinois, Spring, and Mulberry Rivers generally were gaining streams throughout most of their lengths although short losing reaches were identified. The largest gains in streamflow generally occurred were Mississippian formation predominated near the streams. Faults that intersected the stream channels primarily were responsible for streamflow losses. The specific conductance of water increased in the stream reaches that had the most significant streamflow gains. The specific conductance of water in tributaries was generally higher than that in larger streams. (Author 's abstract)

Cost effectiveness of the U.S. Geological Survey's stream-gaging program in Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mades, D.M.; Oberg, K.A.

1984-01-01

Data uses and funding sources were identified for 138 continuous-record discharge-gaging stations currently (1983) operated as part of the stream-gaging program in Illinois. Streamflow data from five of those stations are used only for regional hydrology studies. Most streamflow data are used for defining regional hydrology, defining rainfall-runoff relations, flood forecasting, regulating navigation systems, and water-quality sampling. Based on the evaluations of data use and of alternative methods for determining streamflow in place of stream gaging, no stations in the 1983 stream-gaging program should be deactivated. The current budget (in 1983 dollars) for operating the 138-station program is $768,000 per year. The average standard error of instantaneous discharge for the current practice for visiting the gaging stations is 36.5 percent. Missing stage record accounts for one-third of the 36.5 percent average standard error. (USGS)

Streamflow sensitivity to water storage changes across Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berghuijs, Wouter R.; Hartmann, Andreas; Woods, Ross A.

2016-03-01

Terrestrial water storage is the primary source of river flow. We introduce storage sensitivity of streamflow (ɛS), which for a given flow rate indicates the relative change in streamflow per change in catchment water storage. ɛS can be directly derived from streamflow observations. Analysis of 725 catchments in Europe reveals that ɛS is high in, e.g., parts of Spain, England, Germany, and Denmark, whereas flow regimes in parts of the Alps are more resilient (that is, less sensitive) to storage changes. A regional comparison of ɛS with observations indicates that ɛS is significantly correlated with variability of low (R2 = 0.41), median (R2 = 0.27), and high flow conditions (R2 = 0.35). Streamflow sensitivity provides new guidance for a changing hydrosphere where groundwater abstraction and climatic changes are altering water storage and flow regimes.

Geohydrology of the French Creek basin and simulated effects of droughtand ground-water withdrawals, Chester County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sloto, Ronald A.

2004-01-01

This report describes the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Delaware River Basin Commission, to develop a regional ground-water-flow model of the French Creek Basin in Chester County, Pa. The model was used to assist water-resource managers by illustrating the interconnection between ground-water and surface-water systems. The 70.7-mi2 (square mile) French Creek Basin is in the Piedmont Physiographic Province and is underlain by crystalline and sedimentary fractured-rock aquifers. Annual water budgets were calculated for 1969-2001 for the French Creek Basin upstream of streamflow measurement station French Creek near Phoenixville (01472157). Average annual precipitation was 46.28 in. (inches), average annual streamflow was 20.29 in., average annual base flow determined by hydrograph separation was 12.42 in., and estimated average annual ET (evapotranspiration) was 26.10 in. Estimated average annual recharge was 14.32 in. and is equal to 31 percent of the average annual precipitation. Base flow made up an average of 61 percent of streamflow. Ground-water flow in the French Creek Basin was simulated using the finite-difference MODFLOW-96 computer program. The model structure is based on a simplified two-dimensional conceptualization of the ground-water-flow system. The modeled area was extended outside the French Creek Basin to natural hydrologic boundaries; the modeled area includes 40 mi2 of adjacent areas outside the basin. The hydraulic conductivity for each geologic unit was calculated from reported specific-capacity data determined from aquifer tests and was adjusted during model calibration. The model was calibrated for aboveaverage conditions by simulating base-flow and water-level measurements made on May 1, 2001, using a recharge rate of 20 in/yr (inches per year). The model was calibrated for below-average conditions by simulating base-flow and water-level measurements made on September 11 and 17, 2001, using a recharge rate of 6.2 in/yr. Average conditions were simulated by adjusting the recharge rate until simulated streamflow at streamflow-measurement station 01472157 matched the long-term (1968-2001) average base flow of 54.1 cubic feet per second. The recharge rate used for average conditions was 15.7 in/yr. The effect of drought in the French Creek Basin was simulated using a drought year recharge rate of 8 in/yr for 3 months. After 3 months of drought, the simulated streamflow of French Creek at streamflow-measurement station 01472157 decreased 34 percent. The simulations show that after 6 months of average recharge (15.7 in/yr) following drought, streamflow and water levels recovered almost to pre-drought conditions. The effect of increased ground-water withdrawals on stream base flow in the South Branch French Creek Subbasin was simulated under average and drought conditions with pumping rates equal to 50, 75, and 100 percent of the Delaware River Basin Commission Ground Water Protected Area (GWPA) withdrawal limit (1,393 million gallons per year) with all pumped water removed from the basin. For average recharge conditions, the simulated streamflow of South Branch French Creek at the mouth decreased 18, 28, and 37 percent at a withdrawal rate equal to 50, 75, and 100 percent of the GWPA limit, respectively. After 3 months of drought recharge conditions, the simulated streamflow of South Branch French Creek at the mouth decreased 27, 40, and 52 percent at a withdrawal rate equal to 50, 75, and 100 percent of the GWPA limit, respectively. The effect of well location on base flow, water levels, and the sources of water to the well was simulated by locating a hypothetical well pumping 200 gallons per minute in different places in the Beaver Run Subbasin with all pumped water removed from the basin. The smallest reduction in the base flow of Beaver Run was from a well on the drainage divide

Bootstrap position analysis for forecasting low flow frequency

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tasker, Gary D.; Dunne, P.

1997-01-01

A method of random resampling of residuals from stochastic models is used to generate a large number of 12-month-long traces of natural monthly runoff to be used in a position analysis model for a water-supply storage and delivery system. Position analysis uses the traces to forecast the likelihood of specified outcomes such as reservoir levels falling below a specified level or streamflows falling below statutory passing flows conditioned on the current reservoir levels and streamflows. The advantages of this resampling scheme, called bootstrap position analysis, are that it does not rely on the unverifiable assumption of normality, fewer parameters need to be estimated directly from the data, and accounting for parameter uncertainty is easily done. For a given set of operating rules and water-use requirements for a system, water managers can use such a model as a decision-making tool to evaluate different operating rules. ?? ASCE,.

Suspended sediment and bedload in the First Broad River Basin in Cleveland County, North Carolina, 2008-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hazell, William F.; Huffman, Brad A.

2011-01-01

A study was conducted to characterize sediment transport upstream and downstream from a proposed dam on the First Broad River near the town of Lawndale in Cleveland County, North Carolina. Streamflow was measured continuously, and 381 suspended-sediment samples were collected between late March 2008 and September 2009 at two monitoring stations on the First Broad River to determine the suspended-sediment load at each site for the period April 2008-September 2009. In addition, 22 bedload samples were collected at the two sites to describe the relative contribution of bedload to total sediment load during selected events. Instantaneous streamflow, suspended-sediment, and bedload samples were collected at Knob Creek near Lawndale, North Carolina, to describe general suspended-sediment and bedload characteristics at this tributary to the First Broad River. Suspended- and bedload-sediment samples were collected at all three sites during a variety of flow conditions. Streamflow and suspended-sediment measurements were compared with historical data from a long-term (1959-2009) streamflow station located upstream from Lawndale. The mean streamflow at the long-term streamflow station was approximately 60 percent less during the study period than the long-term annual mean streamflow for the site. Suspended-sediment concentrations and continuous records of streamflow were used to estimate suspended-sediment loads and yields at the two monitoring stations on the First Broad River for the period April 2008-September 2009 and for a complete annual cycle (October 2008-September 2009), also known as a water year. Total suspended-sediment loads during water year 2009 were 18,700 and 36,500 tons at the two sites. High-flow events accounted for a large percentage of the total load, suggesting that the bulk of the total suspended-sediment load was transported during these events. Suspended-sediment yields during water year 2009 were 145 and 192 tons per square mile at the two monitoring stations. Historically, the estimated mean annual suspended-sediment yield at the long-term streamflow station during the period 1970-1979 was 250 tons per square mile, with an estimated mean annual suspended-sediment load of 15,000 tons. Drought conditions throughout most of the study period were a potential factor in the smaller yields at the monitoring stations compared to the yields estimated at the long-term streamflow station in the 1970s. During an extreme runoff event on January 7, 2009, bedload was 0.4 percent, 0.8 percent, and 0.1 percent of the total load at the three study sites, which indicates that during extreme runoff conditions the percentage of the total load that is bedload is not significant. The percentages of the total load that is bedload during low-flow conditions ranged from 0.1 to 90.8, which indicate that the bedload is variable both spatially and temporally.

Assessment of groundwater/surface-water interaction and simulation of potential streamflow depletion induced by groundwater withdrawal, Uinta River near Roosevelt, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lambert, P.M.; Marston, T.; Kimball, B.A.; Stolp, B.J.

2011-01-01

Roosevelt City, Utah, asserts a need for an additional supply of water to meet municipal demands and has identified a potential location for additional groundwater development at the Sprouse well field near the West Channel of the Uinta River. Groundwater is commonly hydraulically linked to surface water and, under some conditions, the pumpage of groundwater can deplete water in streams and other water bodies. In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Roosevelt City, the Utah Department of Natural Resources, and the Ute Indian Tribe, began a study to improve understanding of the local interconnection between groundwater and surface water and to assess the potential for streamflow depletion from future groundwater withdrawals at a potential Roosevelt City development location—the Sprouse well field near the West Channel of the Uinta River.In the study, streamflow gains and losses at the river/aquifer boundary near the well field and changes in those conditions over time were assessed through (1) synoptic measurement of discharge in the stream at multiple sites using tracer-dilution methods, (2) periodic measurement of the vertical hydraulic gradient across the streambed, and (3) continuous measurement of stream and streambed water temperature using heat as a tracer of flow across the streambed. Although some contradictions among the results of the three assessment methods were observed, results of the approaches generally indicated (1) losing streamflow conditions on the West Channel of the Uinta River north of and upstream from the Sprouse well field within the study area, (2) gaining streamflow conditions south of and downstream from the well field, and (3) some seasonal changes in those conditions that correspond with seasonal changes in stream stage and local water-table altitudes.A numerical groundwater flow model was developed on the basis of previously reported observations and observations made during this study, and was used to estimate potential streamflow depletion that might result from future groundwater withdrawals at the Sprouse well field. The model incorporates concepts of transient groundwater flow conditions including fluctuations in groundwater levels and storage, and the distribution of and temporal variations in gains to and losses from streamflow in the West Channel of the Uinta River near the Sprouse well field. Two predictive model simulations incorporated additional future discharge from the Sprouse well field totaling 325 acre-feet annually and biennially during summer months. Results of the predictive model simulations indicate that the water withdrawn by the additional pumping was derived initially from aquifer storage and then, with time, predominantly from streamflow depletion. By the 10th year of the predictive simulation incorporating annual summer pumping from an additional public-supply well in the Sprouse well field, the simulation results indicate that 89 percent of a future annual 325 acre-feet of discharge is derived from depletion of streamflow in the West Channel of the Uinta River. A similar result was observed in a predictive model simulating the same discharge rate but with the new well being pumped every other year.

PRE-RESTORATION GEOMORPHIC AND SEDIMENT CONDITIONS OF MINEBANK RUN, BALTIMORE COUNTY, MARYLAND

EPA Science Inventory

Urban streams frequently undergo severe incision and erosion due to flashy streamflows caused by impervious surfaces in the watershed. Such streamflows can lead to unstable sediment dynamics that can limit options for urban stream restoration. The U.S. Environmental Protection ...

Can longer forest harvest intervals increase summer streamflow for salmon recovery?

EPA Science Inventory

The Mashel Streamflow Modeling Project in the Mashel River Basin, Washington, is using a watershed-scale ecohydrological model to assess whether longer forest harvest intervals can remediate summer low flow conditions that have contributed to sharply reduced runs of spawning Chin...

Interpreting the Hydrology of a Desert Mountain Stream to a General Public: Using Multimedia to Enhance Informal Experiential Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodard, G. C.; Carpenter, K. D.

2002-12-01

Sabino Canyon near Tucson, Arizona draws over 1 million visits per year. The centerpiece of the canyon is Sabino Creek, an ephemeral stream fed by seasonal snowmelt and monsoon rains. Frequently asked questions by canyon visitors include: How can a stream flow in the desert environment? Why are the surrounding mountaintops so much cooler and wetter? How can the stream flow without recent rain or snowmelt? Where does the water go? The NSF STC for Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas (SAHRA) has partnered with the USGS and the USDA Forest Service to develop static displays and a touch-screen electronic kiosk for the Sabino Canyon Visitors Center that explain what streamflow is, where the waters of Sabino Creek originate, where they go, what conditions produce flash flooding, and the hydrology of sky island environments. The kiosk, and an associated Web site, also give current weather and streamflow conditions at various points in the canyon, plus typical and extreme conditions for the current date. Designing displays that attract and inform a diverse mix of visitors with varying levels of interest, reading levels, and attention spans is a major challenge. We have integrated static displays featuring light boxes with a touch-screen kiosk featuring graphics, animation, video, sound effects, and voice-overs. Optional sub-titles are in five languages. The goal is to attract visitors to the display and then meet their various interests and information needs. Hydrology is a foreign subject to the great majority of people, and opportunities to informally educate them are relatively scarce. This presentation will show how current multimedia technology can be combined with proven methods of informal experiential education to communicate some basic hydrologic principles.

Alternative Regression Equations for Estimation of Annual Peak-Streamflow Frequency for Undeveloped Watersheds in Texas using PRESS Minimization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Thompson, David B.

2008-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation and in partnership with Texas Tech University, investigated a refinement of the regional regression method and developed alternative equations for estimation of peak-streamflow frequency for undeveloped watersheds in Texas. A common model for estimation of peak-streamflow frequency is based on the regional regression method. The current (2008) regional regression equations for 11 regions of Texas are based on log10 transformations of all regression variables (drainage area, main-channel slope, and watershed shape). Exclusive use of log10-transformation does not fully linearize the relations between the variables. As a result, some systematic bias remains in the current equations. The bias results in overestimation of peak streamflow for both the smallest and largest watersheds. The bias increases with increasing recurrence interval. The primary source of the bias is the discernible curvilinear relation in log10 space between peak streamflow and drainage area. Bias is demonstrated by selected residual plots with superimposed LOWESS trend lines. To address the bias, a statistical framework based on minimization of the PRESS statistic through power transformation of drainage area is described and implemented, and the resulting regression equations are reported. Compared to log10-exclusive equations, the equations derived from PRESS minimization have PRESS statistics and residual standard errors less than the log10 exclusive equations. Selected residual plots for the PRESS-minimized equations are presented to demonstrate that systematic bias in regional regression equations for peak-streamflow frequency estimation in Texas can be reduced. Because the overall error is similar to the error associated with previous equations and because the bias is reduced, the PRESS-minimized equations reported here provide alternative equations for peak-streamflow frequency estimation.

Trends in timing, magnitude, and duration of summer and fall/winter streamflows for unregulated coastal river basins in Maine during the 20th century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.

2005-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Maine Atlantic Salmon Commission (ASC), began a study in 2003 to examine the timing, magnitude, and duration of summer (June through October) and fall/early winter (September through January) seasonal streamflows of unregulated coastal river basins in Maine and to correlate them to meteorological variables and winter/spring (January through May) seasonal streamflows. This study overlapped the summer seasonal window with the fall/early winter seasonal window to completely bracket the low-streamflow period during July, August, and September between periods of high streamflows in June and October. The ASC is concerned with the impacts of potentially changing meteorological and hydrologic conditions on Atlantic salmon survival. Because winter/spring high streamflows appear to have trended toward earlier dates over the 20th century in coastal Maine, it was hypothesized that the spring/summer recession to low streamflows could have a similar trend toward earlier, and possibly lower, longer lasting, late summer/early fall low streamflows during the 20th century. There were few statistically significant trends in the timing, magnitude, or duration of summer low streamflows for coastal river basins in Maine during the 20th century. The hypothesis that earlier winter/spring high streamflows may result in earlier or lower low streamflows is not supported by the data. No statistically significant trends in the magnitude of total runoff volume during the low-streamflow months of August and September were observed. The magnitude and timing of summer low streamflows correlated with the timing of fall/winter high streamflows and the amount of summer precipitation. The magnitude and timing of summer low streamflows did not correlate with the timing of spring snowmelt runoff. There were few correlations between the magnitude and timing of summer low streamflows and monthly mean surface air temperatures. There were few statistically significant trends in the timing or duration of fall/winter high streamflows for coastal river basins in Maine during the 20th century. The timing of the bulk of fall/winter high streamflows correlated with seasonal precipitation. Earlier fall/winter center-of-volume dates correlated with higher September and October precipitation. In general, little evidence was observed of trends in the magnitude of seasonal runoff volume during fall/winter. The magnitude of fall/winter high streamflows positively correlated with November and December precipitation amounts. There were few correlations between the magnitude and timing of fall/winter high streamflows and monthly mean surface air temperatures.

The contribution of glacier melt to streamflow

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schaner, Neil; Voisin, Nathalie; Nijssen, Bart

2012-09-13

Ongoing and projected future changes in glacier extent and water storage globally have lead to concerns about the implications for water supplies. However, the current magnitude of glacier contributions to river runoff is not well known, nor is the population at risk to future glacier changes. We estimate an upper bound on glacier melt contribution to seasonal streamflow by computing the energy balance of glaciers globally. Melt water quantities are computed as a fraction of total streamflow simulated using a hydrology model and the melt fraction is tracked down the stream network. In general, our estimates of the glacier meltmore » contribution to streamflow are lower than previously published values. Nonetheless, we find that globally an estimated 225 (36) million people live in river basins where maximum seasonal glacier melt contributes at least 10% (25%) of streamflow, mostly in the High Asia region.« less

Streamflow response to increasing precipitation extremes altered by forest management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, Charlene N.; McGuire, Kevin J.; Miniat, Chelcy Ford; Vose, James M.

2016-04-01

Increases in extreme precipitation events of floods and droughts are expected to occur worldwide. The increase in extreme events will result in changes in streamflow that are expected to affect water availability for human consumption and aquatic ecosystem function. We present an analysis that may greatly improve current streamflow models by quantifying the impact of the interaction between forest management and precipitation. We use daily long-term data from paired watersheds that have undergone forest harvest or species conversion. We find that interactive effects of climate change, represented by changes in observed precipitation trends, and forest management regime, significantly alter expected streamflow most often during extreme events, ranging from a decrease of 59% to an increase of 40% in streamflow, depending upon management. Our results suggest that vegetation might be managed to compensate for hydrologic responses due to climate change to help mitigate effects of extreme changes in precipitation.

Droughts in Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barber, Nancy L.; Stamey, Timothy C.

2000-01-01

Droughts do not have the immediate effects of floods, but sustained droughts can cause economic stress throughout the State. The word 'drought' has various meanings, depending on a person's perspective. To a farmer, a drought is a period of moisture deficiency that affects the crops under cultivation - even two weeks without rainfall can stress many crops during certain periods of the growing cycle. To a meteorologist, a drought is a prolonged period when precipitation is less than normal. To a water manager, a drought is a deficiency in water supply that affects water availability and water quality. To a hydrologist, a drought is an extended period of decreased precipitation and streamflow. Droughts in Georgia have severely affected municipal and industrial water supplies, agriculture, stream water quality, recreation at major reservoirs, hydropower generation, navigation, and forest resources. In Georgia, droughts have been documented at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gaging stations since the 1890's. From 1910 to 1940, about 20 streamflow gaging stations were in operation. Since the early 1950's through the late 1980's, about 100 streamflow gaging stations were in operation. Currently (2000), the USGS streamflow gaging network consists of more than 135 continuous-recording gages. Ground-water levels are currently monitored at 165 wells equipped with continuous recorders.

Climate change streamflow scenarios designed for critical period water resources planning studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamlet, A. F.; Snover, A. K.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2003-04-01

Long-range water planning in the United States is usually conducted by individual water management agencies using a critical period planning exercise based on a particular period of the observed streamflow record and a suite of internally-developed simulation tools representing the water system. In the context of planning for climate change, such an approach is flawed in that it assumes that the future climate will be like the historic record. Although more sophisticated planning methods will probably be required as time goes on, a short term strategy for incorporating climate uncertainty into long-range water planning as soon as possible is to create alternate inputs to existing planning methods that account for climate uncertainty as it affects both supply and demand. We describe a straight-forward technique for constructing streamflow scenarios based on the historic record that include the broad-based effects of changed regional climate simulated by several global climate models (GCMs). The streamflow scenarios are based on hydrologic simulations driven by historic climate data perturbed according to regional climate signals from four GCMs using the simple "delta" method. Further data processing then removes systematic hydrologic model bias using a quantile-based bias correction scheme, and lastly, the effects of random errors in the raw hydrologic simulations are removed. These techniques produce streamflow scenarios that are consistent in time and space with the historic streamflow record while incorporating fundamental changes in temperature and precipitation from the GCM scenarios. Planning model simulations based on these climate change streamflow scenarios can therefore be compared directly to planning model simulations based on the historic record of streamflows to help planners understand the potential impacts of climate uncertainty. The methods are currently being tested and refined in two large-scale planning exercises currently being conducted in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the US, and the resulting streamflow scenarios will be made freely available on the internet for a large number of sites in the PNW to help defray the costs of including climate change information in other studies.

Evaluation of the streamflow-gaging network of Alaska in providing regional streamflow information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brabets, Timothy P.

1996-01-01

In 1906, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began operating a network of streamflow-gaging stations in Alaska. The primary purpose of the streamflow- gaging network has been to provide peak flow, average flow, and low-flow characteristics to a variety of users. In 1993, the USGS began a study to evaluate the current network of 78 stations. The objectives of this study were to determine the adequacy of the existing network in predicting selected regional flow characteristics and to determine if providing additional streamflow-gaging stations could improve the network's ability to predict these characteristics. Alaska was divided into six distinct hydrologic regions: Arctic, Northwest, Southcentral, Southeast, Southwest, and Yukon. For each region, historical and current streamflow data were compiled. In Arctic, Northwest, and Southwest Alaska, insufficient data were available to develop regional regression equations. In these areas, proposed locations of streamflow-gaging stations were selected by using clustering techniques to define similar areas within a region and by spatial visual analysis using the precipitation, physiographic, and hydrologic unit maps of Alaska. Sufficient data existed in Southcentral and Southeast Alaska to use generalized least squares (GLS) procedures to develop regional regression equations to estimate the 50-year peak flow, annual average flow, and a low-flow statistic. GLS procedures were also used for Yukon Alaska but the results should be used with caution because the data do not have an adequate spatial distribution. Network analysis procedures were used for the Southcentral, Southeast, and Yukon regions. Network analysis indicates the reduction in the sampling error of the regional regression equation that can be obtained given different scenarios. For Alaska, a 10-year planning period was used. One scenario showed the results of continuing the current network with no additional gaging stations and another scenario showed the results of adding gaging stations to the network. With the exception of the annual average discharge equation for Southeast Alaska, by adding gaging stations in all three regions, the sampling error was reduced to a greater extent than by not adding gaging stations. The proposed streamflow-gaging network for Alaska consists of 308 gaging stations, of which 32 are designated as index stations. If the proposed network can not be implemented in its entirety, then a lesser cost alternative would be to establish the index stations and to implement the network for a particular region.

Predicting the likelihood of altered streamflows at ungauged rivers across the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eng, Kenny; Carlisle, Daren M.; Wolock, David M.; Falcone, James A.

2013-01-01

An approach is presented in this study to aid water-resource managers in characterizing streamflow alteration at ungauged rivers. Such approaches can be used to take advantage of the substantial amounts of biological data collected at ungauged rivers to evaluate the potential ecological consequences of altered streamflows. National-scale random forest statistical models are developed to predict the likelihood that ungauged rivers have altered streamflows (relative to expected natural condition) for five hydrologic metrics (HMs) representing different aspects of the streamflow regime. The models use human disturbance variables, such as number of dams and road density, to predict the likelihood of streamflow alteration. For each HM, separate models are derived to predict the likelihood that the observed metric is greater than (‘inflated’) or less than (‘diminished’) natural conditions. The utility of these models is demonstrated by applying them to all river segments in the South Platte River in Colorado, USA, and for all 10-digit hydrologic units in the conterminous United States. In general, the models successfully predicted the likelihood of alteration to the five HMs at the national scale as well as in the South Platte River basin. However, the models predicting the likelihood of diminished HMs consistently outperformed models predicting inflated HMs, possibly because of fewer sites across the conterminous United States where HMs are inflated. The results of these analyses suggest that the primary predictors of altered streamflow regimes across the Nation are (i) the residence time of annual runoff held in storage in reservoirs, (ii) the degree of urbanization measured by road density and (iii) the extent of agricultural land cover in the river basin.

Vegetation regulation on streamflow intra-annual variability through adaption to climate variations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ye, Sheng; Li, Hongyi; Li, Shuai

2015-12-16

This study aims to provide a mechanistic explanation of the empirical patterns of streamflow intra-annual variability revealed by watershed-scale hydrological data across the contiguous United States. A mathematical extension of the Budyko formula with explicit account for the soil moisture storage change is used to show that, in catchments with a strong seasonal coupling between precipitation and potential evaporation, climate aridity has a dominant control on intra-annual streamflow variability, but in other catchments, additional factors related to soil water storage change also have important controls on how precipitation seasonality propagates to streamflow. More importantly, use of leaf area index asmore » a direct and indirect indicator of the above ground biomass and plant root system, respectively, reveals the vital role of vegetation in regulating soil moisture storage and hence streamflow intra-annual variability under different climate conditions.« less

Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and Streamflow Response to Spatially Distributed Precipitation in Two Large Watersheds in Northern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhakal, A. S.; Adera, S.; Niswonger, R. G.; Gardner, M.

2016-12-01

The ability of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to predict peak intensity, peak timing, base flow, and volume of streamflow was examined in Arroyo Hondo (180 km2) and Upper Alameda Creek (85 km2), two sub-watersheds of the Alameda Creek watershed in Northern California. Rainfall-runoff volume ratios vary widely, and can exceed 0.85 during mid-winter flashy rainstorm events. Due to dry antecedent soil moisture conditions, the first storms of the hydrologic year often produce smaller rainfall-runoff volume ratios. Runoff response in this watershed is highly hysteretic; large precipitation events are required to generate runoff following a 4-week period without precipitation. After about 150 mm of cumulative rainfall, streamflow responds quickly to subsequent storms, with variations depending on rainstorm intensity. Inputs to PRMS included precipitation, temperature, topography, vegetation, soils, and land cover data. The data was prepared for input into PRMS using a suite of data processing Python scripts written by the Desert Research Institute and U.S. Geological Survey. PRMS was calibrated by comparing simulated streamflow to measured streamflow at a daily time step during the period 1995 - 2014. The PRMS model is being used to better understand the different patterns of streamflow observed in the Alameda Creek watershed. Although Arroyo Hondo receives more rainfall than Upper Alameda Creek, it is not clear whether the differences in streamflow patterns are a result of differences in rainfall or other variables, such as geology, slope and aspect. We investigate the ability of PRMS to simulate daily streamflow in the two sub-watersheds for a variety of antecedent soil moisture conditions and rainfall intensities. After successful simulation of watershed runoff processes, the model will be expanded using GSFLOW to simulate integrated surface water and groundwater to support water resources planning and management in the Alameda Creek watershed.

Ecological limit functions relating fish community response to hydrologic departures of the ecological flow regime in the Tennessee River basin, United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knight, Rodney R.; Murphy, Jennifer C.; Wolfe, William J.; Saylor, Charles F.; Wales, Amy K.

2014-01-01

Ecological limit functions relating streamflow and aquatic ecosystems remain elusive despite decades of research. We investigated functional relationships between species richness and changes in streamflow characteristics at 662 fish sampling sites in the Tennessee River basin. Our approach included the following: (1) a brief summary of relevant literature on functional relations between fish and streamflow, (2) the development of ecological limit functions that describe the strongest discernible relationships between fish species richness and streamflow characteristics, (3) the evaluation of proposed definitions of hydrologic reference conditions, and (4) an investigation of the internal structures of wedge-shaped distributions underlying ecological limit functions.Twenty-one ecological limit functions were developed across three ecoregions that relate the species richness of 11 fish groups and departures from hydrologic reference conditions using multivariate and quantile regression methods. Each negatively sloped function is described using up to four streamflow characteristics expressed in terms of cumulative departure from hydrologic reference conditions. Negative slopes indicate increased departure results in decreased species richness.Sites with the highest measured fish species richness generally had near-reference hydrologic conditions for a given ecoregion. Hydrology did not generally differ between sites with the highest and lowest fish species richness, indicating that other environmental factors likely limit species richness at sites with reference hydrology.Use of ecological limit functions to make decisions regarding proposed hydrologic regime changes, although commonly presented as a management tool, is not as straightforward or informative as often assumed. We contend that statistical evaluation of the internal wedge structure below limit functions may provide a probabilistic understanding of how aquatic ecology is influenced by altered hydrology and may serve as the basis for evaluating the potential effect of proposed hydrologic changes.

USGS tethered ACP platforms: New design means more safety and accuracy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morlock, S.E.; Stewart, J.A.; Rehmel, M.S.

2004-01-01

The US Geological Survey has developed an innovative tethered platform that supports an Acoustic Current Profiler (ACP) in making stream-flow measurements (use of the term ACP in this article refers to a class of instruments and not a specific brand name or model). The tethered platform reduces the hazards involved in conventional methods of stream-flow measurement. The use of the platform reduces or eliminates time spent by personnel in streams and boats or on bridges and cableway and stream-flow measurement accuracy is increased.

Streamflow gain/loss in the Republican River basin, Nebraska, March 1989

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Michaela R.; Stanton, Jennifer S.; Cornwall, James F.; Landon, Matthew K.

2002-01-01

This arc and point data set contains streamflow measurement sites and reaches indicating streamflow gain or loss under base-flow conditions along the Republican River and tributaries in Nebraska during March 21 to 22, 1989 (Boohar and others, 1990). These measurements were made to obtain data on ground-water/surface-water interaction. Flow was visually observed to be zero, was measured, or was estimated at 136 sites. The measurements were made on the main stem of the Republican River and all flowing tributaries that enter the Republican River above Swanson Reservoir and parts of the Frenchman, Red Willow, and Medicine Creek drainages in the Nebraska part of the Republican River Basin. Tributaries were followed upstream until the first road crossing where zero flow was encountered. For selected streams, points of zero flow upstream of the first zero flow site were also checked. Streamflow gain or loss for each stream reach was calculated by subtracting the streamflow values measured at the upstream end of the reach and values for contributing tributaries from the downstream value. The data obtained reflected base-flow conditions suitable for estimating streamflow gains and losses for stream reaches between sites. This digital data set was created by manually plotting locations of streamflow measurements. These points were used to designate stream-reach segments to calculate gain/loss per river mile. Reach segments were created by manually splitting the lines from a 1:250,000 hydrography data set (Soenksen and others, 1999) at every location where the streams were measured. Each stream-reach segment between streamflow-measurement sites was assigned a unique reach number. All other lines in the hydrography data set without reach numbers were omitted. This data set was created to archive the calculated streamflow gains and losses of selected streams in part of the Republican River Basin, Nebraska in March 1989, and make the data available for use with geographic information systems (GIS). If measurement sites are used separately from reaches, the maximum scale of 1:100,000 should not be exceeded. When used in conjunction with the reach segments, the maximum scale should not exceed 1:250,000.

Water resources of the Tulalip Indian Reservation and adjacent area, Snohomish County, Washington, 2001-03

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frans, Lonna M.; Kresch, David L.

2004-01-01

This study was undertaken to improve the understanding of water resources of the Tulalip Plateau area, with a primary emphasis on the Tulalip Indian Reservation, in order to address concerns of the Tulalip Tribes about the effects of current and future development, both on and off the Reservation, on their water resources. The drinking-water supply for the Reservation comes almost entirely from ground water, so increasing population will continue to put more pressure on this resource. The study evaluated the current state of ground- and surface-water resources and comparing results with those of studies in the 1970s and 1980s. The study included updating descriptions of the hydrologic framework and ground-water system, determining if discharge and base flow in streams and lake stage have changed significantly since the 1970s, and preparing new estimates of the water budget. The hydrogeologic framework was described using data collected from 255 wells, including their location and lithology. Data collected for the Reservation water budget included continuous and periodic streamflow measurements, micrometeorological data including daily precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation, water-use data, and atmospheric chloride deposition collected under both wet- and dry-deposition conditions to estimate ground-water recharge. The Tulalip Plateau is composed of unconsolidated sediments of Quaternary age that are mostly of glacial origin. There are three aquifers and two confining units as well as two smaller units that are only localized in extent. The Vashon recessional outwash (Qvr) is the smallest of the three aquifers and lies in the Marysville Trough on the eastern part of the study area. The primary aquifer in terms of use is the Vashon advance outwash (Qva). The Vashon till (Qvt) and the transitional beds (Qtb) act as confining units. The Vashon till overlies Qva and the transitional beds underlie Qva and separate it from the undifferentiated sediments (Qu), which are also a principal aquifer of the plateau. The undifferentiated-sediments aquifer is present throughout the entire study area, but is not well defined because few wells penetrate it. Ground water flows radially outward from the center of the Plateau in the Vashon advance outwash aquifer. Water levels fluctuate seasonally in all hydrogeologic units in response to changes in precipitation over the course of the year. However, water levels do not appear to have changed significantly over the long term. There was no statistically significant change between water levels measured in 72 wells in the early 1990s and 2001. Additionally, when a rank sum test was used to compare monthly water levels measured in 18 wells for this study with monthly water levels from the 1970s and 1980s, water levels increased in some wells, decreased in some, and did not change significantly in others. Ground water in the study area is recharged from precipitation that percolates down from the land surface. Average annual recharge, estimated using the chloride-mass-balance method, was 10.4 inches per year. Current streamflow conditions on the Reservation were defined by four continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations operated from April 2001 through March 2003 and monthly measurements of discharge at 12 periodic-measurement sites. Two continuous-record gaging stations (12157250 and 12158040) near the mouths of Mission and Tulalip Creeks, respectively, also were operated during water years 1975-77. Correlations of streamflow for Mission and Tulalip Creeks with the long-term record of streamflow at Mercer Creek (station 12120000) indicate no significant change in streamflow between the mid-1970s and 2001?03 in Mission and Tulalip Creeks. However, comparisons between the percentage of change in precipitation at the Everett precipitation station and percentages of change in streamflow at the Mercer, Mission, and Tulalip Creek gaging stations from the mid-1970s through 2001

Uses, funding, and availability of continuous streamflow data in Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shields, R.R.; White, M.K.

1984-01-01

This report documents the results of a study of the uses, funding, and availability of continuous streamflow data collected and published by the U.S. Geological Survey in Montana. Data uses and funding sources are identified for the 218 continuous streamflow gages currently (1984) being operated. These stations are supported by 18 different funding sources at a budget for the 1984 water year of $1,065,000. The streamflow-gaging program in Montana has evolved through the years as Federal, State, and local needs for surface-water data have increased. Continuous streamflow records for periods ranging from less than 1 year to more than 90 years have been collected. This report describes phase 1 of a cost-effectiveness study of the streamflow-gaging program in Montana. Evaluation of the program indicates that numerous agencies use the data for studies involving regional hydrology, hydrologic systems, and planning and design. They also use the data for operations of existing hydroelectric and irrigation dams, forecasting flood and seasonal flows, water-quality monitoring, research studies for fish habitat, and other uses such as recreational management. (USGS)

Improving Hydrological Simulations by Incorporating GRACE Data for Parameter Calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, P.

2017-12-01

Hydrological model parameters are commonly calibrated by observed streamflow data. This calibration strategy is questioned when the modeled hydrological variables of interest are not limited to streamflow. Well-performed streamflow simulations do not guarantee the reliable reproduction of other hydrological variables. One of the reasons is that hydrological model parameters are not reasonably identified. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite-derived total water storage change (TWSC) data provide an opportunity to constrain hydrological model parameterizations in combination with streamflow observations. We constructed a multi-objective calibration scheme based on GRACE-derived TWSC and streamflow observations, with the aim of improving the parameterizations of hydrological models. The multi-objective calibration scheme was compared with the traditional single-objective calibration scheme, which is based only on streamflow observations. Two monthly hydrological models were employed on 22 Chinese catchments with different hydroclimatic conditions. The model evaluation was performed using observed streamflows, GRACE-derived TWSC, and evapotranspiraiton (ET) estimates from flux towers and from the water balance approach. Results showed that the multi-objective calibration provided more reliable TWSC and ET simulations without significant deterioration in the accuracy of streamflow simulations than the single-objective calibration. In addition, the improvements of TWSC and ET simulations were more significant in relatively dry catchments than in relatively wet catchments. This study highlights the importance of including additional constraints besides streamflow observations in the parameter estimation to improve the performances of hydrological models.

Simulation of ground-water flow and evaluation of water-management alternatives in the Assabet River Basin, Eastern Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeSimone, Leslie A.

2004-01-01

Water-supply withdrawals and wastewater disposal in the Assabet River Basin in eastern Massachusetts alter the flow and water quality in the basin. Wastewater discharges and stream-flow depletion from ground-water withdrawals adversely affect water quality in the Assabet River, especially during low-flow months (late summer) and in headwater areas. Streamflow depletion also contributes to loss of aquatic habitat in tributaries to the river. In 19972001, water-supply withdrawals averaged 9.9 million gallons per day (Mgal/d). Wastewater discharges to the Assabet River averaged 11 Mgal/d and included about 5.4 Mgal/d that originated from sources outside of the basin. The effects of current (2004) and future withdrawals and discharges on water resources in the basin were investigated in this study. Steady-state and transient ground-water-flow models were developed, by using MODFLOW-2000, to simulate flow in the surficial glacial deposits and underlying crystalline bedrock in the basin. The transient model simulated the average annual cycle at dynamic equilibrium in monthly intervals. The models were calibrated to 19972001 conditions of water withdrawals, wastewater discharges, water levels, and nonstorm streamflow (base flow plus wastewater discharges). Total flow through the simulated hydrologic system averaged 195 Mgal/d annually. Recharge from precipitation and ground-water discharge to streams were the dominant inflow and outflow, respectively. Evapotranspiration of ground water from wetlands and non-wetland areas also were important losses from the hydrologic system. Water-supply withdrawals and infiltration to sewers averaged 5 and 1.3 percent, respectively, of total annual out-flows and were larger components (12 percent in September) of the hydrologic system during low-flow months. Water budgets for individual tributary and main stem subbasins identified areas, such as the Fort Meadow Brook and the Assabet Main Stem Upper subbasins, where flows resulting from anthropo-genic activities were relatively large percentages, compared to other subbasins, (more than 20 percent in September) of total out-flows. Wastewater flows in the Assabet River accounted for 55, 32, and 20 percent of total nonstorm streamflow (base flow plus wastewater discharge) out of the Assabet Main Stem Upper, Middle, and Lower subbasins, respectively, in an average September. The ground-water-flow models were used to evaluate water-management alternatives by simulating hypothetical scenarios of altered withdrawals and discharges. A scenario that included no water management quantified nonstorm stream-flows that would result without withdrawals, discharges, septic-system return flow, or consumptive use. Tributary flows in this scenario increased in most subbasins by 2 to 44 percent relative to 19972001 conditions. The increases resulted mostly from variable combinations of decreased withdrawals and decreased infiltration to sewers. Average annual nonstorm streamflow in the Assabet River decreased slightly in this scenario, by 2 to 3 percent annually, because gains in ground-water discharge were offset by the elimination of wastewater discharges. A second scenario quantified the effects of increasing withdrawals and discharges to currently permitted levels. In this simulation, average annual tributary flows decreased in most subbasins, by less than 1 to 10 percent relative to 19972001 conditions. In the Assabet River, flows increased slightly, 1 to 5 percent annually, and the percentage of wastewater in the river increased to 69, 42, and 27 percent of total nonstorm streamflow out of the Assabet Main Stem Upper, Middle, and Lower subbasins, respectively, in an average September. A third set of scenarios quantified the effects of ground-water discharge of wastewater at four hypothetical sites, while maintaining 19972000 wastewater discharges to the Assabet River. Wastewater, discharged at a constant rate that varied among sites from 0.3 to 1

Simulated Water-Management Alternatives Using the Modular Modeling System for the Methow River Basin, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konrad, Christopher P.

2004-01-01

A precipitation-runoff model for the Methow River Basin was used to simulate six alternatives: (1) baseline of current flow, (2) line irrigation canals to limit seepage losses, (3) increase surface-water diversions through unlined canals for aquifer recharge, (4) convert from surface-water to ground-water resources to supply water for irrigation, and (5) reduce tree density in forested headwater catchments, and (6) natural flow. Daily streamflow from October 1, 1959, to September 30, 2001 (water years 1960?2001) was simulated. Lining irrigation canals (alternative 2) increased flows in the Chewuch, Twisp, and the Methow (upstream and at Twisp) Rivers during September because of lower diversion rates, but not in the Methow River near Pateros. Increasing diversions for aquifer recharge (alternative 3) increased streamflow from September into January, but reduced streamflow earlier in the summer. Conversion of surface-water diversions to ground-water wells (alternative 4) resulted in the largest increase in September streamflow of any alternative, but also marginally lower January flows (at most -8 percent in the 90-percent exceedence value). Forest-cover reduction (alternative 5) produced large increases in streamflow during high-flow periods in May and June and earlier onset of high flows and small increases in January streamflows. September streamflows were largely unaffected by alternative 5. Natural streamflow (alternative 6) was higher in September and lower in January than the baseline alternative.

Simulated effects of proposed reservoir-development alternatives on streamflow quantity in the White River, Colorado and Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuhn, Gerhard; Ellis, S.R.

1984-01-01

Numerous reservoirs have been proposed for the White River basin in Colorado and Utah, primarily to provide water for oil-shale development. A multireservoir-flow model was used to simulate the effects of streamflow withdrawal at four of the proposed reservoirs using historical streamflow data from the 1932-81 water years. The proposed reservoirs considered in the study were Avery, Powell Park, Taylor Draw, and White River Reservoirs; construction of Taylor Draw Dam was completed during the study. Annual streamflow depletions from the White River ranging from about 93,000 to 226,000 acre-feet were simulated for the 50 year period. Simulated streamflow throughout the year generally became smaller and more constant as streamflow throughout the year generally became smaller and more constant as streamflow depletion increased. Minimum streamflow requirements would not have been met for a maximum of 13 years and water-use requirements associated with the proposed reservoirs would not have been met for a maximum of 3 years. The current water-use pattern, which depletes about 40,000 acre-feet per year and is dominated by irrigation of hay meadows and pastureland, was maintained in the simulation. Relations between reservoir active capacity and yield applicable to the White River also were developed. These relations show that reservoir storage of about 400,000 acre-feet is the maximum practicable for the White River. (USGS)

Status, trends, and changes in freshwater inflows to bay systems in the Corpus Christi Bay National Estuary Program study area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, W.H.; Mosier, J. G.; Bush, P.W.

1997-01-01

The watershed simulation model Hydrologic Simulation Program—Fortran (HSPF) was used to generate simulated flow (runoff) from the 13 watersheds to the six bay systems because adequate gaged streamflow data from which to estimate freshwater inflows are not available; only about 23 percent of the adjacent contributing watershed area is gaged. The model was calibrated for the gaged parts of three watersheds—that is, selected input parameters (meteorologic and hydrologic properties and conditions) that control runoff were adjusted in a series of simulations until an adequate match between model-generated flows and a set (time series) of gaged flows was achieved. The primary model input is rainfall and evaporation data and the model output is a time series of runoff volumes. After calibration, simulations driven by daily rainfall for a 26-year period (1968–93) were done for the 13 watersheds to obtain runoff under current (1983–93), predevelopment (pre-1940 streamflow and pre-urbanization), and future (2010) land-use conditions for estimating freshwater inflows and for comparing runoff under the three land-use conditions; and to obtain time series of runoff from which to estimate time series of freshwater inflows for trend analysis.

A seasonal hydrologic ensemble prediction system for water resource management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, L.; Wood, E. F.

2006-12-01

A seasonal hydrologic ensemble prediction system, developed for the Ohio River basin, has been improved and expanded to several other regions including the Eastern U.S., Africa and East Asia. The prediction system adopts the traditional Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach, utilizing the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) hydrological model as the central tool for producing ensemble prediction of soil moisture, snow and streamflow with lead times up to 6-month. VIC is forced by observed meteorology to estimate the hydrological initial condition prior to the forecast, but during the forecast period the atmospheric forcing comes from statistically downscaled, seasonal forecast from dynamic climate models. The seasonal hydrologic ensemble prediction system is currently producing realtime seasonal hydrologic forecast for these regions on a monthly basis. Using hindcasts from a 19-year period (1981-1999), during which seasonal hindcasts from NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and European Union DEMETER project are available, we evaluate the performance of the forecast system over our forecast regions. The evaluation shows that the prediction system using the current forecast approach is able to produce reliable and accurate precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow predictions. The overall skill is much higher then the traditional ESP. In particular, forecasts based on multiple climate model forecast are more skillful than single model-based forecast. This emphasizes the significant need for producing seasonal climate forecast with multiple climate models for hydrologic applications. Forecast from this system is expected to provide very valuable information about future hydrologic states and associated risks for end users, including water resource management and financial sectors.

Analysis of the U.S. geological survey streamgaging network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scott, A.G.

1987-01-01

This paper summarizes the results from the first 3 years of a 5-year cost-effectiveness study of the U.S. Geological Survey streamgaging network. The objective of the study is to define and document the most cost-effective means of furnishing streamflow information. In the first step of this study, data uses were identified for 3,493 continuous-record stations currently being operated in 32 States. In the second step, evaluation of alternative methods of providing streamflow information, flow-routing models, and regression models were developed for estimating daily flows at 251 stations of the 3,493 stations analyzed. In the third step of the analysis, relationships were developed between the accuracy of the streamflow records and the operating budget. The weighted standard error for all stations, with current operating procedures, was 19.9 percent. By altering field activities, as determined by the analyses, this could be reduced to 17.8 percent. The existing streamgaging networks in four Districts were further analyzed to determine the impacts that satellite telemetry would have on the cost effectiveness. Satellite telemetry was not found to be cost effective on the basis of hydrologic data collection alone, given present cost of equipment and operation.This paper summarizes the results from the first 3 years of a 5-year cost-effectiveness study of the U. S. Geological Survey streamgaging network. The objective of the study is to define and document the most cost-effective means of furnishing streamflow information. In the first step of this study, data uses were identified for 3,493 continuous-record stations currently being operated in 32 States. In the second step, evaluation of alternative methods of providing streamflow information, flow-routing models, and regression models were developed for estimating daily flows at 251 stations of the 3, 493 stations analyzed. In the third step of the analysis, relationships were developed between the accuracy of the streamflow records and the operating budget. The weighted standard error for all stations, with current operating procedures, was 19. 9 percent. By altering field activities, as determined by the analyses, this could be reduced to 17. 8 percent. Additional study results are discussed.

Factors Affecting Firm Yield and the Estimation of Firm Yield for Selected Streamflow-Dominated Drinking-Water-Supply Reservoirs in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waldron, Marcus C.; Archfield, Stacey A.

2006-01-01

Factors affecting reservoir firm yield, as determined by application of the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection's Firm Yield Estimator (FYE) model, were evaluated, modified, and tested on 46 streamflow-dominated reservoirs representing 15 Massachusetts drinking-water supplies. The model uses a mass-balance approach to determine the maximum average daily withdrawal rate that can be sustained during a period of record that includes the 1960s drought-of-record. The FYE methodology to estimate streamflow to the reservoir at an ungaged site was tested by simulating streamflow at two streamflow-gaging stations in Massachusetts and comparing the simulated streamflow to the observed streamflow. In general, the FYE-simulated flows agreed well with observed flows. There were substantial deviations from the measured values for extreme high and low flows. A sensitivity analysis determined that the model's streamflow estimates are most sensitive to input values for average annual precipitation, reservoir drainage area, and the soil-retention number-a term that describes the amount of precipitation retained by the soil in the basin. The FYE model currently provides the option of using a 1,000-year synthetic record constructed by randomly sampling 2-year blocks of concurrent streamflow and precipitation records 500 times; however, the synthetic record has the potential to generate records of precipitation and streamflow that do not reflect the worst historical drought in Massachusetts. For reservoirs that do not have periods of drawdown greater than 2 years, the bootstrap does not offer any additional information about the firm yield of a reservoir than the historical record does. For some reservoirs, the use of a synthetic record to determine firm yield resulted in as much as a 30-percent difference between firm-yield values from one simulation to the next. Furthermore, the assumption that the synthetic traces of streamflow are statistically equivalent to the historical record is not valid. For multiple-reservoir systems, the firm-yield estimate was dependent on the reservoir system's configuration. The firm yield of a system is sensitive to how the water is transferred from one reservoir to another, the capacity of the connection between the reservoirs, and how seasonal variations in demand are represented in the FYE model. Firm yields for 25 (14 single-reservoir systems and 11 multiple-reservoir systems) reservoir systems were determined by using the historical records of streamflow and precipitation. Current water-use data indicate that, on average, 20 of the 25 reservoir systems in the study were operating below their estimated firm yield; during months with peak demands, withdrawals exceeded the firm yield for 8 reservoir systems.

WRF-Hydro Simulated Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Streamflow Extremes over the CONUS during 1993-2016 and Possible Connections with Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dugger, A. L.; Zhang, Y.; Gochis, D.; Yu, W.; McCreight, J. L.; Karsten, L.; Rafieeinasab, A.; Sampson, K. M.; Salas, F.; Read, L.; Pan, L.; Yates, D. N.; Cosgrove, B.; Clark, E. P.

2017-12-01

Streamflow extremes (lows and peaks) tend to have disproportionately higher impacts on the human and natural systems compared to mean streamflow. Examining and understanding the spatiotemporal distributions of streamflow extremes is of significant interests to both the research community and the water resources management. In this work, the output from the 24-year (1993 through 2016) retrospective runs of the National Water Model (NWM) version of WRF-Hydro will be analyzed for streamflow extremes over the CONUS domain. The CONUS domain was configured at 1-km resolution for land surface grid and 250-m resolution for terrain routing. The WRF-Hydro runs were forced by the regridded and downscaled NLDAS2 data. The analyses focus on daily mean streamflow values over the full water year and within the summer and winter seasons. Connections between NWM streamflow and other hydrologic variables (e.g. snowpack, soil moisture/saturation and ET) with variations in large-scale climate phenomena, e.g., El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and North American monsoon are examined. The CONUS domain has a diverse environment and is characterized by complex terrain, heterogeneous land surfaces and ecosystems, and numerous hydrological basins. The potential dependence of streamflow extremes on regional terrain character, climatic conditions, and ecologic zones will also be investigated.

Comparison of historical streamflows to 2013 Streamflows in the Williamson, Sprague, and Wood Rivers, Upper Klamath Lake Basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, Glen W.; Stonewall, Adam J.

2014-01-01

In 2013, the Upper Klamath Lake Basin, Oregon, experienced a dry spring, resulting in an executive order declaring a state of drought emergency in Klamath County. The 2013 drought limited the water supply and led to a near-total cessation of surface-water diversions for irrigation above Upper Klamath Lake once regulation was implemented. These conditions presented a unique opportunity to understand the effects of water right regulation on streamflows. The effects of regulation of diversions were evaluated by comparing measured 2013 streamflow with data from hydrologically similar years. Years with spring streamflow similar to that in 2013 measured at the Sprague River gage at Chiloquin from water years 1973 to 2012 were used to define a Composite Index Year (CIY; with diversions) for comparison to measured 2013 streamflows (no diversions). The best-fit 6 years (1977, 1981, 1990, 1991, 1994, and 2001) were used to determine the CIY. Two streams account for most of the streamflow into Upper Klamath Lake: the Williamson and Wood Rivers. Most streamflow into the lake is from the Williamson River Basin, which includes the Sprague River. Because most of the diversion regulation affecting the streamflow of the Williamson River occurred in the Sprague River Basin, and because of uncertainties about historical flows in a major diversion above the Williamson River gage, streamflow data from the Sprague River were used to estimate the change in streamflow from regulation of diversions for the Williamson River Basin. Changes in streamflow outside of the Sprague River Basin were likely minor relative to total streamflow. The effect of diversion regulation was evaluated using the “Baseflow Method,” which compared 2013 baseflow to baseflow of the CIY. The Baseflow Method reduces the potential effects of summer precipitation events on the calculations. A similar method using streamflow produced similar results, however, despite at least one summer precipitation event. The result of the analysis estimates that streamflow from the Williamson River Basin to Upper Klamath Lake increased by approximately 14,100 acre-feet between July 1 and September 30 relative to prior dry years as a result of regulation of surface-water diversions in 2013. Quantifying the change in streamflow from regulation of diversion for the Wood River Basin was likely less accurate due to a lack of long-term streamflow data. An increase in streamflow from regulation of diversions in the Wood River Basin of roughly 5,500 acre-feet was estimated by comparing the average August and September streamflow in 2013 with historical August and September streamflow. Summing the results of the estimated streamflow gain of the Williamson River Basin (14,100 acre-feet) and Wood River (5,500 acre-feet) gives a total estimated increase in streamflow into Upper Klamath Lake resulting from the July 1–September 2013 regulation of diversions of approximately 19,600 acre-feet.

Analysis of Future Streamflow Regimes under Global Change Scenarios in Central Chile for Ecosystem Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henriquez Dole, L. E.; Gironas, J. A.; Vicuna, S.

2015-12-01

Given the critical role of the streamflow regime for ecosystem sustainability, modeling long term effects of climate change and land use change on streamflow is important to predict possible impacts in stream ecosystems. Because flow duration curves are largely used to characterize the streamflow regime and define indices of ecosystem health, they were used to represent and analyze in this study the stream regime in the Maipo River Basin in Central Chile. Water and Environmental Assessment and Planning (WEAP) model and the Plant Growth Model (PGM) were used to simulate water distribution, consumption in rural areas and stream flows on a weekly basis. Historical data (1990-2014), future land use scenarios (2030/2050) and climate change scenarios were included in the process. Historical data show a declining trend in flows mainly by unprecedented climatic conditions, increasing interest among users on future streamflow scenarios. In the future, under an expected decline in water availability coupled with changes in crop water demand, water users will be forced to adapt by changing water allocation rules. Such adaptation actions would in turns affect the streamflow regime. Future scenarios for streamflow regime show dramatic changes in water availability and temporal distribution. Annual weekly mean flows can reduce in 19% in the worst scenario and increase in 3.3% in the best of them, and variability in streamflow increases nearly 90% in all scenarios under evaluation. The occurrence of maximum and minimum monthly flows changes, as June instead of July becomes the driest month, and December instead of January becomes the month with maximum flows. Overall, results show that under future scenarios streamflow is affected and altered by water allocation rules to satisfy water demands, and thus decisions will need to consider the streamflow regime (and habitat) in order to be sustainable.

Reducing hydrologic model uncertainty in monthly streamflow predictions using multimodel combination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Weihua; Sankarasubramanian, A.

2012-12-01

Model errors are inevitable in any prediction exercise. One approach that is currently gaining attention in reducing model errors is by combining multiple models to develop improved predictions. The rationale behind this approach primarily lies on the premise that optimal weights could be derived for each model so that the developed multimodel predictions will result in improved predictions. A new dynamic approach (MM-1) to combine multiple hydrological models by evaluating their performance/skill contingent on the predictor state is proposed. We combine two hydrological models, "abcd" model and variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, to develop multimodel streamflow predictions. To quantify precisely under what conditions the multimodel combination results in improved predictions, we compare multimodel scheme MM-1 with optimal model combination scheme (MM-O) by employing them in predicting the streamflow generated from a known hydrologic model (abcd model orVICmodel) with heteroscedastic error variance as well as from a hydrologic model that exhibits different structure than that of the candidate models (i.e., "abcd" model or VIC model). Results from the study show that streamflow estimated from single models performed better than multimodels under almost no measurement error. However, under increased measurement errors and model structural misspecification, both multimodel schemes (MM-1 and MM-O) consistently performed better than the single model prediction. Overall, MM-1 performs better than MM-O in predicting the monthly flow values as well as in predicting extreme monthly flows. Comparison of the weights obtained from each candidate model reveals that as measurement errors increase, MM-1 assigns weights equally for all the models, whereas MM-O assigns higher weights for always the best-performing candidate model under the calibration period. Applying the multimodel algorithms for predicting streamflows over four different sites revealed that MM-1 performs better than all single models and optimal model combination scheme, MM-O, in predicting the monthly flows as well as the flows during wetter months.

Estimating daily time series of streamflow using hydrological model calibrated based on satellite observations of river water surface width: Toward real world applications.

PubMed

Sun, Wenchao; Ishidaira, Hiroshi; Bastola, Satish; Yu, Jingshan

2015-05-01

Lacking observation data for calibration constrains applications of hydrological models to estimate daily time series of streamflow. Recent improvements in remote sensing enable detection of river water-surface width from satellite observations, making possible the tracking of streamflow from space. In this study, a method calibrating hydrological models using river width derived from remote sensing is demonstrated through application to the ungauged Irrawaddy Basin in Myanmar. Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) is selected as a tool for automatic calibration and uncertainty analysis. Of 50,000 randomly generated parameter sets, 997 are identified as behavioral, based on comparing model simulation with satellite observations. The uncertainty band of streamflow simulation can span most of 10-year average monthly observed streamflow for moderate and high flow conditions. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency is 95.7% for the simulated streamflow at the 50% quantile. These results indicate that application to the target basin is generally successful. Beyond evaluating the method in a basin lacking streamflow data, difficulties and possible solutions for applications in the real world are addressed to promote future use of the proposed method in more ungauged basins. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Results of streamflow gain-loss studies in Texas, with emphasis on gains from and losses to major and minor aquifers, Texas, 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slade, Raymond M.; Bentley, J. Taylor; Michaud, Dana

2002-01-01

Data for all 366 known streamflow gain-loss studies conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in Texas were aggregated. A water-budget equation that includes discharges for main channels, tributaries, return flows, and withdrawals was used to document the channel gain or loss for each of 2,872 subreaches for the studies. The channel gain or loss represents discharge from or recharge to aquifers crossed by the streams. Where applicable, the major or minor aquifer outcrop traversed by each subreach was identified, as was the length and location for each subreach. These data will be used to estimate recharge or discharge for major and minor aquifers in Texas, as needed by the Ground-Water Availability Modeling Program being conducted by the Texas Water Development Board. The data also can be used, along with current flow rates for streamflow-gaging stations, to estimate streamflow at sites remote from gaging stations, including sites where streamflow availability is needed for permitted withdrawals.

Global separation of plant transpiration from groundwater and streamflow

Treesearch

Jaivime Evaristo; Scott Jasechko; Jeffrey J. McDonnell

2015-01-01

Current land surface models assume that groundwater, streamflow and plant transpiration are all sourced and mediated by the same well mixed water reservoir—the soil. However, recent work in Oregon and Mexico has shown evidence of ecohydrological separation, whereby different subsurface compartmentalized pools of water supply either plant transpiration fluxes or the...

Effects of urban best management practices on streamflow and phosphorus and suspended-sediment transport on Englesby Brook in Burlington, Vermont, 2000-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Medalie, Laura

2012-01-01

An assessment of the effectiveness of several urban best management practice structures, including a wet extended detention facility and a shallow marsh wetland (together the "wet extended detention ponds"), was made using data collected from 2000 through 2010 at Englesby Brook in Burlington, Vermont. The purpose of the best management practices was to reduce high streamflows and phosphorus and suspended-sediment loads and concentrations and to increase low streamflows. Englesby Brook was monitored for streamflow, phosphorus, and suspended-sediment concentrations at a streamgage downstream of the best management practice structures for 5 years before the wet extended detention ponds were constructed in 2005 and for 4 years (phosphorus and suspended-sediment concentrations) or 5 years (streamflow) after they were constructed. The period after construction of the best management practice structures was wetter and had higher discharges than the period before construction. Despite the wetter conditions, streamflow duration curves provided evidence that the streamflow regime appeared to have shifted so that the percentages of low streamflows have increased and those of high streamflows may have slightly decreased. Two other hydrologic measures showed improvements in the years following construction of the best management practices: the percentage of annual discharge transported during the 3 days with highest discharges and the number of days with zero streamflow have both decreased. Evidence was mixed for the effectiveness of the best management practices in reducing phosphorus and suspended-sediment concentrations and loads. Annual phosphorus and suspended-sediment loads, monthly loads, low-streamflow concentrations, storm-averaged streamflow-adjusted concentrations, and total storm loads either did not change significantly or increased in the period after construction. These results likely were because of the wetter conditions in the period after construction. For example, monthly loads assessed using analysis of covariance, which compensated for the effects of streamflow on loads, suggested no difference in phosphorus or suspended-sediment loads between the two periods, whereas the comparison of monthly loads without factoring in streamflow showed an increase. This result could be viewed as evidence that the ponds may have mitigated the effect of greater discharges in the period after construction by preventing a corresponding increase in loads. In another analysis used to adjust for the difference in discharge between the two comparison periods, annual and monthly load results were grouped into dry and wet years. Large (50 percent) reductions in annual loads were observed when data from dry (or wet) years before construction were compared with data from dry (or wet) years after construction. When paired monthly loads of each constituent were grouped into dry and wet years, approximately the same number of months had increases as did decreases with the magnitudes of the decreases generally larger than the magnitudes of the increases. These differences in magnitude explain the decrease in annual loads for dry and wet years. The close association of phosphorus with suspended-sediment data suggested that most of the phosphorus was in the particulate form and was controlled by suspended-sediment dynamics.

Runoff generation processes and fraction of young water for streamflow and groundwater in a pre-alpine forested catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuecco, Giulia; Penna, Daniele; van Meerveld, Ilja; Borga, Marco

2017-04-01

Understanding of runoff generation mechanisms and storage dynamics is needed for sustainable management of water resources, particularly in catchments characterized by marked seasonality in rainfall. However, temporal and spatial variability of hydrological processes can hinder a detailed comprehension of catchment functioning. In this study, we use hydrometric data and stable isotope data from a 2-ha forested catchment in the Italian pre-Alps to i) identify seasonal changes in runoff generation, ii) determine the factors that affect the hysteretic relations between streamflow and soil moisture and between streamflow and shallow groundwater, and iii) estimate the fraction of young water in stream water and shallow groundwater. Streamflow, soil moisture and groundwater levels were measured continuously between August 2012 and December 2015. Soil moisture was measured at 0-30 cm depth by four time domain reflectometers installed at different locations along a riparian-hillslope transect. Depth to water table was measured in two piezometers installed at a depth of 2.0 and 1.8 m in the riparian zone. Water samples for isotopic analysis were taken monthly from bulk precipitation and approximately biweekly from stream water and groundwater. The relations between streamflow (independent variable), soil moisture and depth to water table (dependent variables) were analyzed by computing a hysteresis index that provides information on the direction, the extent and the shape of the loops for 103 rainfall-runoff events. The temporal variability of the hysteresis index was related to event characteristics (mean and maximum rainfall intensity, rainfall amount and total stormflow) and antecedent soil moisture conditions. We observed threshold-like relations between stormflow and the sum of rainfall and the antecedent soil moisture index and an exponential relation between the change in groundwater level and stormflow. Clockwise hysteretic relations were common between streamflow and riparian soil moisture, suggesting quick contributions from shallow soil layers in the riparian zone to streamflow. The relations between streamflow and hillslope soil moisture and between streamflow and depth to water table in the riparian zone varied seasonally, with clockwise loops being typical for large rainfall events in autumn and anti-clockwise hysteresis being more common in spring and summer. This indicates that hillslope soil water and riparian groundwater dynamics and their contribution to stormflow varied seasonally and depended on event size and antecedent moisture conditions. There was a marked seasonal variability in the isotopic composition of precipitation but a much more damped variability in the isotopic signature of stream water and groundwater. A sine curve was fitted to the seasonal variation in isotopic composition of weighted precipitation, stream water and groundwater to estimate the fraction of young water in stream water and groundwater. The fraction of young water in streamflow was about 14% when considering baseflow conditions only (23% using the entire isotopic dataset). This was similar to the fraction of young water in riparian groundwater. Keywords: runoff generation; hysteresis; isotopes; young water fraction; forested catchment.

A Statistical Weather-Driven Streamflow Model: Enabling future flow predictions in data-scarce headwater streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosner, A.; Letcher, B. H.; Vogel, R. M.

2014-12-01

Predicting streamflow in headwaters and over a broad spatial scale pose unique challenges due to limited data availability. Flow observation gages for headwaters streams are less common than for larger rivers, and gages with records lengths of ten year or more are even more scarce. Thus, there is a great need for estimating streamflows in ungaged or sparsely-gaged headwaters. Further, there is often insufficient basin information to develop rainfall-runoff models that could be used to predict future flows under various climate scenarios. Headwaters in the northeastern U.S. are of particular concern to aquatic biologists, as these stream serve as essential habitat for native coldwater fish. In order to understand fish response to past or future environmental drivers, estimates of seasonal streamflow are needed. While there is limited flow data, there is a wealth of data for historic weather conditions. Observed data has been modeled to interpolate a spatially continuous historic weather dataset. (Mauer et al 2002). We present a statistical model developed by pairing streamflow observations with precipitation and temperature information for the same and preceding time-steps. We demonstrate this model's use to predict flow metrics at the seasonal time-step. While not a physical model, this statistical model represents the weather drivers. Since this model can predict flows not directly tied to reference gages, we can generate flow estimates for historic as well as potential future conditions.

Temporal rainfall estimation using input data reduction and model inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, A. J.; Vrugt, J. A.; Walker, J. P.; Pauwels, V. R. N.

2016-12-01

Floods are devastating natural hazards. To provide accurate, precise and timely flood forecasts there is a need to understand the uncertainties associated with temporal rainfall and model parameters. The estimation of temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions from streamflow observations in complex dynamic catchments adds skill to current areal rainfall estimation methods, allows for the uncertainty of rainfall input to be considered when estimating model parameters and provides the ability to estimate rainfall from poorly gauged catchments. Current methods to estimate temporal rainfall distributions from streamflow are unable to adequately explain and invert complex non-linear hydrologic systems. This study uses the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) to reduce rainfall dimensionality for the catchment of Warwick, Queensland, Australia. The reduction of rainfall to DWT coefficients allows the input rainfall time series to be simultaneously estimated along with model parameters. The estimation process is conducted using multi-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation with the DREAMZS algorithm. The use of a likelihood function that considers both rainfall and streamflow error allows for model parameter and temporal rainfall distributions to be estimated. Estimation of the wavelet approximation coefficients of lower order decomposition structures was able to estimate the most realistic temporal rainfall distributions. These rainfall estimates were all able to simulate streamflow that was superior to the results of a traditional calibration approach. It is shown that the choice of wavelet has a considerable impact on the robustness of the inversion. The results demonstrate that streamflow data contains sufficient information to estimate temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions. The extent and variance of rainfall time series that are able to simulate streamflow that is superior to that simulated by a traditional calibration approach is a demonstration of equifinality. The use of a likelihood function that considers both rainfall and streamflow error combined with the use of the DWT as a model data reduction technique allows the joint inference of hydrologic model parameters along with rainfall.

Concentrations, loads, and yields of select constituents from major tributaries of the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Iowa, water years 2004-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garrett, Jessica D.

2012-01-01

Excess nutrients, suspended-sediment loads, and the presence of pesticides in Iowa rivers can have deleterious effects on water quality in State streams, downstream major rivers, and the Gulf of Mexico. Fertilizer and pesticides are used to support crop growth on Iowa's highly productive agricultural landscape and for household and commercial lawns and gardens. Water quality was characterized near the mouths of 10 major Iowa tributaries to the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers from March 2004 through September 2008. Stream loads were calculated for select ions, nutrients, and sediment using approximately monthly samples, and samples from storm and snowmelt events. Water-quality samples collected using standard streamflow-integrated protocols were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, carbon, pesticides, and suspended sediment. Statistical data summaries of sample data used parametric and nonparametric techniques to address potential bias related to censored data and multiple levels of censoring of data below analytical detection limits. Constituent stream loads were computed using standard pre-defined models in S-LOADEST that include streamflow and time terms plus additional terms for streamflow variability and streamflow anomalies. Streamflow variability terms describe the difference in streamflow from recent average conditions, whereas streamflow anomaly terms account for deviations from average conditions from long- to short-term sequentially. Streamflow variability or anomaly terms were included in 44 of 80 site/constituent individual models, demonstrating the usefulness of these terms in increasing accuracy of the load estimates. Constituent concentrations in Iowa streams exhibit streamflow, seasonal, and spatial patterns related to the landform and climate gradients across the studied basins. The streamflow-concentration relation indicated dilution for ions such as chloride and sulfate. Other constituent concentrations, such as dissolved organic carbon and suspended sediment, increased with streamflow. Nitrogen concentrations (total nitrogen and nitrate plus nitrite) increased with low and moderate streamflows, but decreased with high streamflows. Seasonal patterns observed in constituent concentrations were affected by streamflow, algae blooms, and pesticide application. The various landform regions produced different water-quality responses across the study basins; for example, total phosphorus, suspended sediment, and turbidity were greatest from the steep, loess-dominated southwestern Iowa basins. Nutrient concentrations, though not regulated for drinking water at the study sites, were high compared to drinking-water limits and criteria for protection of aquatic life proposed for other Midwestern states (Iowa criteria for aquatic life have not been proposed). Nitrate plus nitrite concentrations exceeded the drinking-water limit [10 milligrams per liter (mg/L)] in 11 percent of all samples at the 10 sites, and exceeded Minnesota's proposed aquatic life criteria (4.9 mg/L) in 68 percent of samples. The Wisconsin standard for total phosphorus (0.1 mg/L) was exceeded in 92 percent of samples. Ammonia standards, current during sample collection and at publication of this report, for protection of aquatic life were met for all samples, but draft criteria proposed in 2009 to protect more sensitive species like mussels, were exceeded at three sites. Loads and yields also differed among sites and years. The Big Sioux, Little Sioux, and Des Moines Rivers produced the greatest sulfate yields. Mississippi River tributaries had greater chloride yields than Missouri River tributaries. The Big Sioux River also had the lowest silica yields and total nitrogen and nitrate yields, whereas nitrogen yields were greater in the northeastern rivers. The Boyer and Nishnabotna River total phosphorus yields were the greatest in the study. The Boyer River orthophosphate yields were greatest except in 2008, when the Maquoketa River produced the greatest yield. Rivers in southwestern Iowa's Western Loess Hills and Steeply Rolling Loess Prairie ecoregions had the greatest suspended-sediment yields, whereas the smallest yields were in the Big Sioux and Wapsipinicon Rivers. In the 10 Iowa rivers studied, combined annual total nitrogen stream transport ranged from 3.68 to 9.95 tons per square mile per year, and total phosphorus transport ranged from 0.138 to 0.570 tons per square mile per year. Six-month loads relative to fertilizer use ranged from 8 to 56 percent for nitrogen, and 1.0 to 11.1 percent for phosphorus. The smallest loads relative to fertilizer use for both nitrogen and phosphorus occurred in July-December of dry years, and the largest nitrogen and phosphorus loads relative to use were in wet years from January-June.

Water quality and streamflow in the Caribou-Poker Creeks Research Watershed, central Alaska, 1978.

Treesearch

Jerry W. Hilgert; Charles W. Slaughter

1983-01-01

Baseline data from 1978 are presented on precipitation, streamflow, and chemical and biological water quality in a subarctic, taiga watershed. First-, second-, and third-order streams that drain undisturbed catchments embracing permafrost-underlain and permafrost-free landscapes were monitored; results are being used in analysis of the natural, undisturbed condition of...

Watershed memory at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory: the effect of past precipitation and storage on hydrologic response

Treesearch

Fabian Nippgen; Brian L. McGlynn; Ryan E. Emanuel; James M. Vose

2016-01-01

The rainfall-runoff response of watersheds is affected by the legacy of past hydroclimatic conditions. We examined how variability in precipitation affected streamflow using 21 years of daily streamflow and precipitation data from five watersheds at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory in southwestern North Carolina, USA. The gauged watersheds contained both...

An environmental streamflow assessment for the Santiam River basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risley, John C.; Wallick, J. Rose; Mangano, Joseph F.; Jones, Krista L.

2012-01-01

The Santiam River is a tributary of the Willamette River in northwestern Oregon and drains an area of 1,810 square miles. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates four dams in the basin, which are used primarily for flood control, hydropower production, recreation, and water-quality improvement. The Detroit and Big Cliff Dams were constructed in 1953 on the North Santiam River. The Green Peter and Foster Dams were completed in 1967 on the South Santiam River. The impacts of the structures have included a decrease in the frequency and magnitude of floods and an increase in low flows. For three North Santiam River reaches, the median of annual 1-day maximum streamflows decreased 42–50 percent because of regulated streamflow conditions. Likewise, for three reaches in the South Santiam River basin, the median of annual 1-day maximum streamflows decreased 39–52 percent because of regulation. In contrast to their effect on high flows, the dams increased low flows. The median of annual 7-day minimum flows in six of the seven study reaches increased under regulated streamflow conditions between 60 and 334 percent. On a seasonal basis, median monthly streamflows decreased from February to May and increased from September to January in all the reaches. However, the magnitude of these impacts usually decreased farther downstream from dams because of cumulative inflow from unregulated tributaries and groundwater entering the North, South, and main-stem Santiam Rivers below the dams. A Wilcox rank-sum test of monthly precipitation data from Salem, Oregon, and Waterloo, Oregon, found no significant difference between the pre-and post-dam periods, which suggests that the construction and operation of the dams since the 1950s and 1960s are a primary cause of alterations to the Santiam River basin streamflow regime. In addition to the streamflow analysis, this report provides a geomorphic characterization of the Santiam River basin and the associated conceptual framework for assessing possible geomorphic and ecological changes in response to river-flow modifications. Suggestions for future biomonitoring and investigations are also provided. This study was one in a series of similar tributary streamflow and geomorphic studies conducted for the Willamette Sustainable Rivers Project. The Sustainable Rivers Project is a national effort by the USACE and The Nature Conservancy to develop environmental flow requirements in regulated river systems.

Applications of ERTS-A Data Collection System (DCS) in the Arizona Regional Ecological Test Site (ARETS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schumann, H. H. (Principal Investigator)

1972-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Preliminary analysis of DCS data from the USGS Verde River stream flow measuring site indicates the DCS system is furnishing high quality data more frequently than had been expected. During the 43-day period between Nov. 3, and Dec. 15, 1972, 552 DCS transmissions were received during 193 data passes. The amount of data received far exceeded the single high quality transmission per 12-hour period expected from the DCS system. The digital-parallel ERTS-1 data has furnished sufficient to accurately compute mean daily gage heights. These in turn, are used to compute average daily streamflow rates during periods of stable or slowly changing flow conditions. The digital-parallel data has also furnished useful information during peak flow periods. However, the serial-digital DCS capability, currently under development for transmitting streamflow data, should provide data of greater utility for determining times of flood peaks.

Streamflow predictions in Alpine Catchments by using artificial neural networks. Application in the Alto Genil Basin (South Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimeno-Saez, Patricia; Pegalajar-Cuellar, Manuel; Pulido-Velazquez, David

2017-04-01

This study explores techniques of modeling water inflow series, focusing on techniques of short-term steamflow prediction. An appropriate estimation of streamflow in advance is necessary to anticipate measures to mitigate the impacts and risks related to drought conditions. This study analyzes the prediction of future streamflow of nineteen subbasins in the Alto-Genil basin in Granada (Southeast of Spain). Some of these basin streamflow have an important component of snowmelt due to part of the system is located in Sierra Nevada Mountain Range, the highest mountain of continental Spain. Streamflow prediction models have been calibrated using time series of historical natural streamflows. The available streamflow measurements have been downloaded from several public data sources. These original data have been preprocessed to turn them to the original natural regime, removing the anthropic effects. The missing values in the adopted horizon period to calibrate the prediction models have been estimated by using a Temez hydrological balance model, approaching the snowmelt processes with a hybrid degree day method. In the experimentation, ARIMA models are used as baseline method, and recurrent neural networks ELMAN and nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NAR) to test if the prediction accuracy can be improved. After performing the multiple experiments with these models, non-parametric statistical tests are applied to select the best of these techniques. In the experiments carried out with ARIMA, it is concluded that ARIMA models are not adequate in this case study due to the existence of a nonlinear component that cannot be modeled. Secondly, ELMAN and NAR neural networks with multi-start training is performed with each network structure to deal with the local optimum problem, since in neural network training there is a very strong dependence on the initial weights of the network. The obtained results suggest that both neural networks are efficient for the short term prediction, surpassing the limitations of the ARIMA models and, in general, the experiments showed that NAR networks are the ones with the greatest generalization capability. Therefore, NAR networks are chosen as the starting point for other works, in which we study the streamflow predictions incorporating exogenous variables (as the Snow Cover Area), the sensitivity of the prediction to the initial conditions, multivariate streamflow predictions considering the spatial correlation between the sub-basins streamflow and the synthetic generations to assess droughts statistic. This research has been partially supported by the CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R (MINECO) and the PMAFI/06/14 (UCAM) projects.

How Hydroclimate Influences the Effectiveness of Particle Filter Data Assimilation of Streamflow in Initializing Short- to Medium-range Streamflow Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, E.; Wood, A.; Nijssen, B.; Clark, M. P.

2017-12-01

Short- to medium-range (1- to 7-day) streamflow forecasts are important for flood control operations and in issuing potentially life-save flood warnings. In the U.S., the National Weather Service River Forecast Centers (RFCs) issue such forecasts in real time, depending heavily on a manual data assimilation (DA) approach. Forecasters adjust model inputs, states, parameters and outputs based on experience and consideration of a range of supporting real-time information. Achieving high-quality forecasts from new automated, centralized forecast systems will depend critically on the adequacy of automated DA approaches to make analogous corrections to the forecasting system. Such approaches would further enable systematic evaluation of real-time flood forecasting methods and strategies. Toward this goal, we have implemented a real-time Sequential Importance Resampling particle filter (SIR-PF) approach to assimilate observed streamflow into simulated initial hydrologic conditions (states) for initializing ensemble flood forecasts. Assimilating streamflow alone in SIR-PF improves simulated streamflow and soil moisture during the model spin up period prior to a forecast, with consequent benefits for forecasts. Nevertheless, it only consistently limits error in simulated snow water equivalent during the snowmelt season and in basins where precipitation falls primarily as snow. We examine how the simulated initial conditions with and without SIR-PF propagate into 1- to 7-day ensemble streamflow forecasts. Forecasts are evaluated in terms of reliability and skill over a 10-year period from 2005-2015. The focus of this analysis is on how interactions between hydroclimate and SIR-PF performance impact forecast skill. To this end, we examine forecasts for 5 hydroclimatically diverse basins in the western U.S. Some of these basins receive most of their precipitation as snow, others as rain. Some freeze throughout the mid-winter while others experience significant mid-winter melt events. We describe the methodology and present seasonal and inter-basin variations in DA-enhanced forecast skill.

Reducing streamflow forecast uncertainty: Application and qualitative assessment of the upper klamath river Basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, L.E.; McCabe, G.J.; Clark, M.P.; Risley, J.C.

2009-01-01

The accuracy of streamflow forecasts depends on the uncertainty associated with future weather and the accuracy of the hydrologic model that is used to produce the forecasts. We present a method for streamflow forecasting where hydrologic model parameters are selected based on the climate state. Parameter sets for a hydrologic model are conditioned on an atmospheric pressure index defined using mean November through February (NDJF) 700-hectoPascal geopotential heights over northwestern North America [Pressure Index from Geopotential heights (PIG)]. The hydrologic model is applied in the Sprague River basin (SRB), a snowmelt-dominated basin located in the Upper Klamath basin in Oregon. In the SRB, the majority of streamflow occurs during March through May (MAM). Water years (WYs) 1980-2004 were divided into three groups based on their respective PIG values (high, medium, and low PIG). Low (high) PIG years tend to have higher (lower) than average MAM streamflow. Four parameter sets were calibrated for the SRB, each using a different set of WYs. The initial set used WYs 1995-2004 and the remaining three used WYs defined as high-, medium-, and low-PIG years. Two sets of March, April, and May streamflow volume forecasts were made using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). The first set of ESP simulations used the initial parameter set. Because the PIG is defined using NDJF pressure heights, forecasts starting in March can be made using the PIG parameter set that corresponds with the year being forecasted. The second set of ESP simulations used the parameter set associated with the given PIG year. Comparison of the ESP sets indicates that more accuracy and less variability in volume forecasts may be possible when the ESP is conditioned using the PIG. This is especially true during the high-PIG years (low-flow years). ?? 2009 American Water Resources Association.

A proposed streamflow-data program for Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitaker, G.L.

1970-01-01

An evaluation of the streamflow data available in Utah was made to provide guidelines for planning future programs. The basic steps in the evaluation procedure were (1) definition of the long- term goals of the streamflow-data program in quantitative form, (2) examination and analysis of all available data to determine which goals have already been met, and (3) consideration of alternate programs and techniques to meet the remaining objectives. The principal goals are (1) to provide current streamflow data where needed for water management and (2) to define streamflow characteristics at any point on any stream within a specified accuracy. It was found that the first goal generally is being satisfied but that flow characteristics at ungaged sites cannot be estimated within the specified accuracy by regression analysis with the existing data and model now available. This latter finding indicates the need for some changes in the present data program so that the accuracy goals can be approached by alternate methods. The regression method may be more successful at a future time if a more suitable model can be developed, and if an adequate sample of streamflow records can be obtained in all areas. In the meantime, methods of transferring flow characteristics which require some information at the ungaged site may be used. A modified streamflow-data program based on this study is proposed.

Effects of forest management on streamflow, sediment yield, and erosion, Caspar Creek Experimental Watersheds

Treesearch

Elizabeth T. Keppeler; Jack Lewis; Thomas E. Lisle

2003-01-01

Abstract - Caspar Creek Experimental Watersheds were established in 1962 to research the effects of forest management on streamflow, sedimentation, and erosion in the rainfall-dominated, forested watersheds of north coastal California. Currently, 21 stream sites are gaged in the North Fork (473 ha) and South Fork (424 ha) of Caspar Creek. From 1971 to 1973, 65% of...

Simulated water sources and effects of pumping on surface and ground water, Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses, Cape Cod, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walter, Donald A.; Whealan, Ann T.

2005-01-01

The sandy sediments underlying Cape Cod, Massachusetts, compose an important aquifer that is the sole source of water for a region undergoing rapid development. Population increases and urbanization on Cape Cod lead to two primary environmental effects that relate directly to water supply: (1) adverse effects of land use on the quality of water in the aquifer and (2) increases in pumping that can adversely affect environmentally sensitive surface waters, such as ponds and streams. These considerations are particularly important on the Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses, which underlie the largest and most populous areas on Cape Cod. Numerical models of the two flow lenses were developed to simulate ground-water-flow conditions in the aquifer and to (1) delineate areas at the water table contributing water to wells and (2) estimate the effects of pumping and natural changes in recharge on surface waters. About 350 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) of water recharges the aquifer at the water table in this area; most water (about 65 percent) discharges at the coast and most of the remaining water (about 28 percent) discharges into streams. A total of about 24.9 Mgal/d, or about 7 percent, of water in the aquifer is withdrawn for water supply; most pumped water is returned to the hydrologic system as return flow creating a state of near mass balance in the aquifer. Areas at the water table that contribute water directly to production wells total about 17 square miles; some water (about 10 percent) pumped from the wells flows through ponds prior to reaching the wells. Current (2003) steady-state pumping reduces simulated ground-water levels in some areas by more than 4 feet; projected (2020) pumping may reduce water levels by an additional 3 feet or more in these same areas. Current (2003) and future (2020) pumping reduces total streamflow by about 4 and 9 cubic feet per second (ft3/s), corresponding to about 5 percent and 9 percent, respectively, of total streamflow. Natural recharge varies with time, over both monthly and multiyear time scales. Monthly changes in recharge cause pond levels to vary between 1 and 2 feet in an average year; annual changes in recharge, which can be much larger than monthly variations, can cause pond levels to vary by more than 10 feet in some areas over a period of years. Streamflow, which also changes in response to changes in recharge, varies by a factor of two over an average year and can vary more over multiyear periods. On average, monthly pumping ranges from 15.8 Mgal/d in March to 45.3 Mgal/d in August. Pumping and the distribution of return flow can seasonally affect the hydrologic system by lowering ground-water and pond levels and by depleting streamflows, particularly in the summer months. Maximum drawdowns in March and August exceed 3 feet and 6 feet, respectively, for current (2003) pumping. Simulated drawdowns from projected (2020) pumping, relative to water levels representing 2003 pumping conditions, exceed 2 feet in March and 5 feet in August. Current (2003) and future (2020) pumping can decrease pond levels in some areas by more than 3 feet; drawdown generally is largest during the month of August of an average year. Over multiyear periods, seasonal pumping can lower pond levels in some areas by more than 4 feet; the effects of seasonal pumping are largest during periods of reduced recharge. Monthly streamflow depletion varies in individual streams but can exceed 2 ft3/s in some streams. The combined effects of seasonal pumping and drought can reduce pond levels by more than 10 feet below average levels. Water levels in Mary Dunn Pond, which is in an area of large current and projected pumping, are predicted (2020) to decline during drought conditions by about 10.6 feet: about 6.9 feet from lower recharge, about 2.3 feet from current (2003) pumping, and about 1.4 feet from additional future (2020) pumping. The results indicate that pumping generally does not cause substantial

Simulation of daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations within the Cedar River Basin, Iowa, using a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christiansen, Daniel E.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, conducted a study to examine techniques for estimation of daily streamflows using hydrological models and statistical methods. This report focuses on the use of a hydrologic model, the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, to estimate daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a modular, physically based, distributed-parameter modeling system developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on surface-water runoff and general basin hydrology. The Cedar River Basin was selected to construct a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model that simulates the period from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2010. The calibration period was from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2004, and the validation periods were from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2010 and January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. A Geographic Information System tool was used to delineate the Cedar River Basin and subbasins for the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and to derive parameters based on the physical geographical features. Calibration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was completed using a U.S. Geological Survey calibration software tool. The main objective of the calibration was to match the daily streamflow simulated by the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model with streamflow measured at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages. The Cedar River Basin daily streamflow model performed with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.82 to 0.33 during the calibration period, and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.77 to -0.04 during the validation period. The Cedar River Basin model is meeting the criteria of greater than 0.50 Nash-Sutcliffe and is a good fit for streamflow conditions for the calibration period at all but one location, Austin, Minnesota. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model accurately simulated streamflow at four of six uncalibrated sites within the basin. Overall, there was good agreement between simulated and measured seasonal and annual volumes throughout the basin for calibration and validation sites. The calibration period ranged from 0.2 to 20.8 percent difference, and the validation period ranged from 0.0 to 19.5 percent difference across all seasons and total annual runoff. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model tended to underestimate lower streamflows compared to the observed streamflow values. This is an indication that the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling model needs more detailed groundwater and storage information to properly model the low-flow conditions in the Cedar River Basin.

Velocity profile, water-surface slope, and bed-material size for selected streams in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marchand, J.P.; Jarrett, R.D.; Jones, L.L.

1984-01-01

Existing methods for determining the mean velocity in a vertical sampling section do not address the conditions present in high-gradient, shallow-depth streams common to mountainous regions such as Colorado. The report presents velocity-profile data that were collected for 11 streamflow-gaging stations in Colorado using both a standard Price type AA current meter and a prototype Price Model PAA current meter. Computational results are compiled that will enable mean velocities calculated from measurements by the two current meters to be compared with each other and with existing methods for determining mean velocity. Water-surface slope, bed-material size, and flow-characteristic data for the 11 sites studied also are presented. (USGS)

Ensemble streamflow assimilation with the National Water Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rafieeinasab, A.; McCreight, J. L.; Noh, S.; Seo, D. J.; Gochis, D.

2017-12-01

Through case studies of flooding across the US, we compare the performance of the National Water Model (NWM) data assimilation (DA) scheme to that of a newly implemented ensemble Kalman filter approach. The NOAA National Water Model (NWM) is an operational implementation of the community WRF-Hydro modeling system. As of August 2016, the NWM forecasts of distributed hydrologic states and fluxes (including soil moisture, snowpack, ET, and ponded water) over the contiguous United States have been publicly disseminated by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) . It also provides streamflow forecasts at more than 2.7 million river reaches up to 30 days in advance. The NWM employs a nudging scheme to assimilate more than 6,000 USGS streamflow observations and provide initial conditions for its forecasts. A problem with nudging is how the forecasts relax quickly to open-loop bias in the forecast. This has been partially addressed by an experimental bias correction approach which was found to have issues with phase errors during flooding events. In this work, we present an ensemble streamflow data assimilation approach combining new channel-only capabilities of the NWM and HydroDART (a coupling of the offline WRF-Hydro model and NCAR's Data Assimilation Research Testbed; DART). Our approach focuses on the single model state of discharge and incorporates error distributions on channel-influxes (overland and groundwater) in the assimilation via an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In order to avoid filter degeneracy associated with a limited number of ensemble at large scale, DART's covariance inflation (Anderson, 2009) and localization capabilities are implemented and evaluated. The current NWM data assimilation scheme is compared to preliminary results from the EnKF application for several flooding case studies across the US.

Implementation of remote sensing data for flood forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimaldi, S.; Li, Y.; Pauwels, V. R. N.; Walker, J. P.; Wright, A. J.

2016-12-01

Flooding is one of the most frequent and destructive natural disasters. A timely, accurate and reliable flood forecast can provide vital information for flood preparedness, warning delivery, and emergency response. An operational flood forecasting system typically consists of a hydrologic model, which simulates runoff generation and concentration, and a hydraulic model, which models riverine flood wave routing and floodplain inundation. However, these two types of models suffer from various sources of uncertainties, e.g., forcing data initial conditions, model structure and parameters. To reduce those uncertainties, current forecasting systems are typically calibrated and/or updated using streamflow measurements, and such applications are limited in well-gauged areas. The recent increasing availability of spatially distributed Remote Sensing (RS) data offers new opportunities for flood events investigation and forecast. Based on an Australian case study, this presentation will discuss the use 1) of RS soil moisture data to constrain a hydrologic model, and 2) of RS-derived flood extent and level to constrain a hydraulic model. The hydrological model is based on a semi-distributed system coupled with a two-soil-layer rainfall-runoff model GRKAL and a linear Muskingum routing model. Model calibration was performed using either 1) streamflow data only or 2) both streamflow and RS soil moisture data. The model was then further constrained through the integration of real-time soil moisture data. The hydraulic model is based on LISFLOOD-FP which solves the 2D inertial approximation of the Shallow Water Equations. Streamflow data and RS-derived flood extent and levels were used to apply a multi-objective calibration protocol. The effectiveness with which each data source or combination of data sources constrained the parameter space was quantified and discussed.

Hydrologic drought of water year 2011 compared to four major drought periods of the 20th century in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shivers, Molly J.; Andrews, William J.

2013-01-01

Water year 2011 (October 1, 2010, through September 30, 2011) was a year of hydrologic drought (based on streamflow) in Oklahoma and the second-driest year to date (based on precipitation) since 1925. Drought conditions worsened substantially in the summer, with the highest monthly average temperature record for all States being broken by Oklahoma in July (89.1 degrees Fahrenheit), June being the second hottest and August being the hottest on record for those months for the State since 1895. Drought conditions continued into the fall, with all of the State continuing to be in severe to exceptional drought through the end of September. In addition to effects on streamflow and reservoirs, the 2011 drought increased damage from wildfires, led to declarations of states of emergency, water-use restrictions, and outdoor burning bans; caused at least $2 billion of losses in the agricultural sector and higher prices for food and other agricultural products; caused losses of tourism and wildlife; reduced hydropower generation; and lowered groundwater levels in State aquifers. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, conducted an investigation to compare the severity of the 2011 drought with four previous major hydrologic drought periods during the 20th century – water years 1929–41, 1952–56, 1961–72, and 1976–81. The period of water years 1925–2011 was selected as the period of record because few continuous record streamflow-gaging stations existed before 1925, and gaps in time existed where no streamflow-gaging stations were operated before 1925. In water year 2011, statewide annual precipitation was the 2d lowest, statewide annual streamflow was 16th lowest, and statewide annual runoff was 42d lowest of those 87 years of record. Annual area-averaged precipitation totals by the nine National Weather Service climate divisions from water year 2011 were compared to those during four previous major hydrologic drought periods to show how precipitation deficits in Oklahoma varied by region. The nine climate divisions in Oklahoma had precipitation in water year 2011 ranging from 43 to 76 percent of normal annual precipitation, with the Northeast Climate Division having the closest to normal precipitation and the Southwest Climate Division having the greatest percentage of annual deficit. Based on precipitation amounts, water year 2011 ranked as the second driest of the 1925–2011 period, being exceeded only in one year of the 1952 to 1956 drought period. Regional streamflow patterns for water year 2011 indicate that streamflow in the Arkansas-White-Red water resources region, which includes all of Oklahoma, was relatively large, being only the 26th lowest since 1930, primarily because of normal or above-normal streamflow in the northern part of the region. Twelve long-term streamflow-gaging stations with periods of record ranging from 67 to 83 years were selected to show how streamflow deficits varied by region in Oklahoma. Statewide, streamflow in water year 2011 was greater than streamflows measured in years during the drought periods of 1929–41, 1952–56, 1961–72, and 1976–81. The hydrologic drought worsened going from the northeast toward the southwest in Oklahoma, ranging from 140 percent (above normal streamflow) in the northeast, to 13 percent of normal streamflow in southwestern Oklahoma. The relatively low streamflow in 2011 resulted in 83.3 percent of the statewide conservation storage being available at the end of the water year in major reservoirs, similar to conservation storage in the preceding severe drought year of 2006. The ranking of streamflow as the 16th smallest for the 1925–2011 period, despite precipitation being ranked the 2d smallest, may have been caused, in part, by the relatively large streamflow in northeastern Oklahoma during water year 2011.

Spatial Correlation Of Streamflows: An Analytical Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betterle, A.; Schirmer, M.; Botter, G.

2016-12-01

The interwoven space and time variability of climate and landscape properties results in complex and non-linear hydrological response of streamflow dynamics. Understanding how meteorologic and morphological characteristics of catchments affect similarity/dissimilarity of streamflow timeseries at their outlets represents a scientific challenge with application in water resources management, ecological studies and regionalization approaches aimed to predict streamflows in ungauged areas. In this study, we establish an analytical approach to estimate the spatial correlation of daily streamflows in two arbitrary locations within a given hydrologic district or river basin at seasonal and annual time scales. The method is based on a stochastic description of the coupled streamflow dynamics at the outlet of two catchments. The framework aims to express the correlation of daily streamflows at two locations along a river network as a function of a limited number of physical parameters characterizing the main underlying hydrological drivers, that include climate conditions, precipitation regime and catchment drainage rates. The proposed method portrays how heterogeneity of climate and landscape features affect the spatial variability of flow regimes along river systems. In particular, we show that frequency and intensity of synchronous effective rainfall events in the relevant contributing catchments are the main driver of the spatial correlation of daily discharge, whereas only pronounced differences in the drainage rate of the two basins bear a significant effect on the streamflow correlation. The topological arrangement of the two outlets also influences the underlying streamflow correlation, as we show that nested catchments tend to maximize the spatial correlation of flow regimes. The application of the method to a set of catchments in the South-Eastern US suggests the potential of the proposed tool for the characterization of spatial connections of flow regimes in the absence of discharge measurements.

Associations of stream health to altered flow and water temperature in the Sierra Nevada, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carlisle, Daren M.; S. Mark Nelson,; May, Jason

2016-01-01

Alteration of streamflow and thermal conditions may adversely affect lotic invertebrate communities, but few studies have assessed these phenomena using indicators that control for the potentially confounding influence of natural variability. We designed a study to assess how flow and thermal alteration influence stream health – as indicated by the condition of invertebrate communities. We studied thirty streams in the Sierra Nevada, California, that span a wide range of hydrologic modification due to storage reservoirs and hydroelectric diversions. Daily water temperature and streamflows were monitored, and basic chemistry and habitat conditions were characterized when invertebrate communities were sampled. Streamflow alteration, thermal alteration, and invertebrate condition were quantified by predicting site-specific natural expectations using statistical models developed using data from regional reference sites. Monthly flows were typically depleted (relative to natural expectations) during fall, winter, and spring. Most hydrologically altered sites experienced cooled thermal conditions in summer, with mean daily temperatures as much 12 °C below natural expectations. The most influential predictor of invertebrate community condition was the degree of alteration of March flows, which suggests that there are key interactions between hydrological and biological processes during this month in Sierra Nevada streams. Thermal alteration was also an important predictor – particularly at sites with the most severe hydrological alteration.

Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099 *

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Meyer, M.K.; Jeton, A.

2004-01-01

Hydrologic responses of river basins in the Sierra Nevada of California to historical and future climate variations and changes are assessed by simulating daily streamflow and water-balance responses to simulated climate variations over a continuous 200-yr period. The coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land Parallel Climate Model provides the simulated climate histories, and existing hydrologic models of the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers are used to simulate the basin responses. The historical simulations yield stationary climate and hydrologic variations through the first part of the 20th century until about 1975 when temperatures begin to warm noticeably and when snowmelt and streamflow peaks begin to occur progressively earlier within the seasonal cycle. A future climate simulated with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse-gas and aerosol radiative forcings continues those recent trends through the 21st century with an attendant +2.5??C warming and a hastening of snowmelt and streamflow within the seasonal cycle by almost a month. The various projected trends in the business-as-usual simulations become readily visible despite realistic simulated natural climatic and hydrologic variability by about 2025. In contrast to these changes that are mostly associated with streamflow timing, long-term average totals of streamflow and other hydrologic fluxes remain similar to the historical mean in all three simulations. A control simulation in which radiative forcings are held constant at 1995 levels for the 50 years following 1995 yields climate and streamflow timing conditions much like the 1980s and 1990s throughout its duration. The availability of continuous climate-change projection outputs and careful design of initial conditions and control experiments, like those utilized here, promise to improve the quality and usability of future climate-change impact assessments.

Trend and variability in a new, reconstructed streamflow dataset for West and Central Africa, and climatic interactions, 1950-2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sidibe, Moussa; Dieppois, Bastien; Mahé, Gil; Paturel, Jean-Emmanuel; Amoussou, Ernest; Anifowose, Babatunde; Lawler, Damian

2018-06-01

Over recent decades, regions of West and Central Africa have experienced different and significant changes in climatic patterns, which have significantly impacted hydrological regimes. Such impacts, however, are not fully understood at the regional scale, largely because of scarce hydroclimatic data. Therefore, the aim of this study is to (a) assemble a new, robust, reconstructed streamflow dataset of 152 gauging stations; (b) quantify changes in streamflow over 1950-2005 period, using these newly reconstructed datasets; (c) significantly reveal trends and variability in streamflow over West and Central Africa based on new reconstructions; and (d) assess the robustness of this dataset by comparing the results with those identified in key climatic drivers (e.g. precipitation and temperature) over the region. Gap filling methods applied to monthly time series (1950-2005) yielded robust results (median Kling-Gupta Efficiency >0.75). The study underlines a good agreement between precipitation and streamflow trends and reveals contrasts between western Africa (negative trends) and Central Africa (positive trends) in the 1950s and 1960s. Homogenous dry conditions of the 1970s and 1980s, characterized by reduced significant negative trends resulting from quasi-decadal modulations of the trend, are replaced by wetter conditions in the recent period (1993-2005). The effect of this rainfall recovery (which extends to West and Central Africa) on increased river flows are further amplified by land use change in some Sahelian basins. This is partially offset, however, by higher potential evapotranspiration rates over parts of Niger and Nigeria. Crucially, the new reconstructed streamflow datasets presented here will be available for both the scientific community and water resource managers.

Peak streamflow on selected streams in Arkansas, December 2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Breaker, Brian K.

2017-01-11

Heavy rainfall during December 2015 resulted in flooding across parts of Arkansas; rainfall amounts were as high as 12 inches over a period from December 27, 2015, to December 29, 2015. Although precipitation accumulations were highest in northwestern Arkansas, significant flooding occurred in other parts of the State. Flood damage occurred in several counties as water levels rose in streams, and disaster declarations were declared in 32 of the 75 counties in Arkansas.Given the severity of the December 2015 flooding, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), conducted a study to document the meteorological and hydrological conditions prior to and during the flood; compiled flood-peak gage heights, streamflows, and flood probabilities at USGS streamflow-gaging stations; and estimated streamflows and flood probabilities at selected ungaged locations.

Catchments Under Change: Assessing Impacts and Feedbacks from New Biomass Crops in the Agricultural Midwestern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaeger, Mary; Housh, Mashor; Ng, Tze Ling; Cai, Ximing; Sivapalan, Murugesu

2013-04-01

In order to meet the challenges of future change, it is essential to understand the environmental response to current conditions and historical changes. The central Midwestern US is an example of anthropogenic change and environmental feedbacks, having been transformed from a natural grassland system to an artificially-drained agricultural system. Environmental feedbacks from reduced soil residence times coupled with increasing crop fertilization have manifested as a hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico. In an effort to address these feedbacks while meeting new crop demands, large-scale planting of high-yielding perennial biomass crops has been proposed. This could be detrimental to both human and environmental streamflow users because these plants require more water than do current crops. The lowest natural flows in this shallow groundwater-dependent region coincide with the peak of the growing season, thus compounding the problem. Therefore, for large-scale biomass crop production to be sustainable, these tradeoffs between water quality and water quantity must be fully understood. To better understand the catchment response to current conditions, we have analyzed streamflow data in a central Illinois agricultural watershed. To deal with future changes, we have developed an integrated systems model which provides, among other outputs, the land usage that maximizes the benefit to the human system. This land use is then implemented in a separate hydrologic model to determine the impact to the environmental system. Interactively running the two models, taking into account the catchment response to human actions as well as possible anthropogenic responses to the environment, allows us to examine the feedbacks between the two systems. This lets us plot the trajectory of the state of the system, which we hypothesize will show emergent internal properties of the coupled system. Initial tests of this modeling framework show promise that this may indeed be the case. External economic forcings were applied to the human system, resulting in greatly-reduced streamflow due to a large percentage of the watershed planted with the new crops. The anthropogenic response to this environmental feedback was an imposed minimum flow requirement in the integrated model, which resulted in a new optimized land use that improved environmental conditions, but not to the previous state. Further refinement of this experiment will provide thresholds, both where crop types change, and where environmental damage becomes evident. Preliminary results revealed added complexity, as tributary and mainstem subcatchments do not respond equally, even in this homogenous region; thus the spatial context also becomes important.

Hydrologic conditions in New Hampshire and Vermont, water year 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kiah, Richard G.; Jarvis, Jason D.; Hegemann, Robert F.; Hilgendorf, Gregory S.; Ward, Sanborn L.

2013-01-01

Record-high hydrologic conditions in New Hampshire and Vermont occurred during water year 2011, according to data from 125 streamgages and lake gaging stations, 27 creststage gages, and 41 groundwater wells. Annual runoff for the 2011 water year was the sixth highest on record for New Hampshire and the highest on record for Vermont on the basis of a 111-year reference period (water years 1901–2011). Groundwater levels for the 2011 water year were generally normal in New Hampshire and normal to above normal in Vermont. Record flooding occurred in April, May, and August of water year 2011. Peak-of-record streamflows were recorded at 38 streamgages, 25 of which had more than 10 years of record. Flooding in April 2011 was widespread in parts of northern New Hampshire and Vermont; peak-of-record streamflows were recorded at nine streamgages. Flash flooding in May 2011 was isolated to central and northeastern Vermont; peakof- record streamflows were recorded at five streamgages. Devastating flooding in August 2011 occurred throughout most of Vermont and in parts of New Hampshire as a result of the heavy rains associated with Tropical Storm Irene. Peak-ofrecord streamflows were recorded at 24 streamgages.

Simulating streamflow in ungauged basins under a changing climate: The importance of landscape characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teutschbein, Claudia; Grabs, Thomas; Laudon, Hjalmar; Karlsen, Reinert H.; Bishop, Kevin

2018-06-01

In this paper we explored how landscape characteristics such as topography, geology, soils and land cover influence the way catchments respond to changing climate conditions. Based on an ensemble of 15 regional climate models bias-corrected with a distribution-mapping approach, present and future streamflow in 14 neighboring and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden was simulated with the HBV model. We established functional relationships between a range of landscape characteristics and projected changes in streamflow signatures. These were then used to analyze hydrological consequences of physical perturbations in a hypothetically ungauged basin in a climate change context. Our analysis showed a strong connection between the forest cover extent and the sensitivity of different components of a catchment's hydrological regime to changing climate conditions. This emphasizes the need to redefine forestry goals and practices in advance of climate change-related risks and uncertainties.

Hydrologic response across a snow persistence gradient on the west and east slopes of the Rocky Mountains in Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richard, G. A.; Hammond, J. C.; Kampf, S. K.; Moore, C. D.; Eurich, A.

2017-12-01

Snowpack trend analyses and modeling studies suggest that lower elevation snowpacks in mountain regions are most sensitive to drought and warming temperatures, however, in Colorado, most snow monitoring occurs in the high elevations where snow lasts throughout the winter and most streamflow monitoring occurs at lower elevations. The lack of combined snow and streamflow monitoring in watersheds along the transition from intermittent to persistent snow creates a gap in our understanding of snowmelt and runoff within the intermittent-persistent snow transition. Expanded hydrologic monitoring that spans the gradient of snow conditions in Colorado can help improve streamflow prediction and inform land and water managers. This study established hydrologic monitoring watersheds in intermittent, transitional, and persistent snow zones on the east slope and west slope of the Rocky Mountains in Colorado, and uses this monitoring network to improve understanding of how snow accumulation and melt affect soil moisture and streamflow generation under different snow conditions. We monitored six small watersheds (three west slope, three east slope) (0.8 to 3.9 km2) that drain intermittent, transitional, and persistent snow zones. At each site, we measured: streamflow, snow depth, soil moisture, precipitation, air temperature, and snow water equivalent (SWE). In our first season of monitoring, the west slope persistent and transitional sites had more mid-winter melt and infiltration, shorter snowpack duration, and lower peak SWE than the east slope sites. Snow cover remained at the east slope persistent site into June, whereas much of the snow at the persistent site on the west slope had already melted by early June. The difference in soil water input likely has consequences for streamflow response that we will continue to examine in future years. At the west slope intermittent site, the stream did not flow during the entire first year of monitoring, while at the east slope intermittent site, the streams flowed intermittently during winter and spring, likely a result of different subsurface geology. With our ongoing watershed monitoring across a broad range of snow conditions in Colorado, we continue to learn about the factors that increase or decrease streamflow in the headwater streams that supply the state's major rivers.

The National Streamflow Statistics Program: A Computer Program for Estimating Streamflow Statistics for Ungaged Sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ries(compiler), Kernell G.; With sections by Atkins, J. B.; Hummel, P.R.; Gray, Matthew J.; Dusenbury, R.; Jennings, M.E.; Kirby, W.H.; Riggs, H.C.; Sauer, V.B.; Thomas, W.O.

2007-01-01

The National Streamflow Statistics (NSS) Program is a computer program that should be useful to engineers, hydrologists, and others for planning, management, and design applications. NSS compiles all current U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) regional regression equations for estimating streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in an easy-to-use interface that operates on computers with Microsoft Windows operating systems. NSS expands on the functionality of the USGS National Flood Frequency Program, and replaces it. The regression equations included in NSS are used to transfer streamflow statistics from gaged to ungaged sites through the use of watershed and climatic characteristics as explanatory or predictor variables. Generally, the equations were developed on a statewide or metropolitan-area basis as part of cooperative study programs. Equations are available for estimating rural and urban flood-frequency statistics, such as the 1 00-year flood, for every state, for Puerto Rico, and for the island of Tutuila, American Samoa. Equations are available for estimating other statistics, such as the mean annual flow, monthly mean flows, flow-duration percentiles, and low-flow frequencies (such as the 7-day, 0-year low flow) for less than half of the states. All equations available for estimating streamflow statistics other than flood-frequency statistics assume rural (non-regulated, non-urbanized) conditions. The NSS output provides indicators of the accuracy of the estimated streamflow statistics. The indicators may include any combination of the standard error of estimate, the standard error of prediction, the equivalent years of record, or 90 percent prediction intervals, depending on what was provided by the authors of the equations. The program includes several other features that can be used only for flood-frequency estimation. These include the ability to generate flood-frequency plots, and plots of typical flood hydrographs for selected recurrence intervals, estimates of the probable maximum flood, extrapolation of the 500-year flood when an equation for estimating it is not available, and weighting techniques to improve flood-frequency estimates for gaging stations and ungaged sites on gaged streams. This report describes the regionalization techniques used to develop the equations in NSS and provides guidance on the applicability and limitations of the techniques. The report also includes a users manual and a summary of equations available for estimating basin lagtime, which is needed by the program to generate flood hydrographs. The NSS software and accompanying database, and the documentation for the regression equations included in NSS, are available on the Web at http://water.usgs.gov/software/.

Temporal Differences in Flow Depth and Velocity Distributions and Hydraulic Microhabitats Near Bridges of the Lower Platte River, Nebraska, 1934-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ginting, Daniel; Zelt, Ronald B.

2008-01-01

As part of a collaborative study of the cumulative impacts on stream and riparian ecology of water and channel management practices in the lower Platte River, Nebraska, this report describes a study by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Lower Platte South Natural Resources District that summarizes: (1) temporal differences in distribution of streamflow depth, velocity, and microhabitats among five discrete 11-water-year periods 1934-44, 1951-61, 1966-76, 1985-95, and 1996-2006, and (2) the effects of bridge proximity on distribution of streamflow depth, velocity, and microhabitat of the Platte River when cross sections were measured at a similar discharge. The scope of the study included the four presently (2008) active streamflow-gaging stations located near bridges over the lower Platte River at North Bend, near Leshara, near Ashland, and at Louisville, Nebraska, and the most downstream streamflow-gaging station within the central Platte River segment near Duncan, Nebraska. Generally, in cases where temporal differences in streamflow depth and velocity were evident, at least one of the water-year periods from 1934 through 1995 had deeper streamflow than the recent water-year period (1996-2006). Temporal differences in distributions of streamflow depth were not strongly associated with differences in either climatic conditions or the maximum peak flow that occurred prior to the latest discharge measurement during each period. The relative cross-sectional area of most hydraulic niches did not differ among the water-year periods. Part of this apparent uniformity likely was an artifact of the broad microhabitat classification used for this study. In cases where temporal differences in relative cross-sectional area of hydraulic niches were evidenced, the differences occurred during high- and low-flow conditions, not during median flow conditions. The temporal differences in relative cross-sectional area were found more frequently for hydraulic niches defined by moderate and fast velocities than for hydraulic niches defined by slow velocities. Generally, any significant increase or decrease in the relative cross-sectional areas of hydraulic niches during the water-year periods from 1934 through 1995 had disappeared during the most recent water-year period, 1996-2006. Deep-Swift niche was the predominant hydraulic niche for all near-bridge sites on the lower Platte River for high- and median-flow conditions. The Deep-Swift niche also was the predominant niche for the near-bridge sites near Ashland and at Louisville for low-flow conditions; for the near-bridge sites at North Bend and near Leshara, streamflow cross-sectional areas during low-flow conditions were shared among the Shallow-Moderate, Intermediate-Moderate, Intermediate-Swift, and Deep-Swift hydraulic niches. For the near-bridge site near Duncan, the site farthest downstream in the central Platte River system, the Deep-Swift hydraulic niche was predominant only during high-flow conditions; during median- and low-flow conditions the relative cross-sectional area was shared among the Shallow-Slow, Shallow-Moderate, Intermediate-Moderate, and Intermediate-Swift hydraulic niches. Significant temporal differences in the relative cross-sectional area of the Deep-Swift hydraulic niche were found for sites near the two farthest downstream bridges near Ashland and at Louisville, but only for low-flow conditions. The Deep-Swift microhabitat was of special interest because it is the preferred hydraulic habitat during the adult life of the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus). Temporal differences in relative cross-sectional areas of the Glide low-flow geomorphic microhabitat that contained the Deep-Swift hydraulic niche also indicated that relative cross-sectional areas of the Glide during the 1951-61 and 1996-2006 water-year periods were lower than during the 1966-76 period. The temporal differences indicated that any significant temporal chang

Sustainability of water uses in managed hydrosystems: human- and climate-induced changes for the mid-21st century

DOE PAGES

Fabre, Julie; Ruelland, Denis; Dezetter, Alain; ...

2016-08-02

This paper assesses the sustainability of planned water uses in mesoscale river basins under multiple climate change scenarios, and contributes to determining the possible causes of unsustainability. We propose an assessment grounded in real-world water management issues, with water management scenarios built in collaboration with local water agencies. Furthermore, we present an analysis through indicators that relate to management goals and present the implications of climate uncertainty for our results, furthering the significance of our study for water management. A modeling framework integrating hydro-climatic and human dynamics and accounting for interactions between resource and demand was applied in two basinsmore » of different scales and with contrasting water uses: the Herault (2500 km 2, France) and the Ebro (85 000 km 2, Spain) basins. Natural streamflow was evaluated using a conceptual hydrological model. A demand-driven reservoir management model was designed to account for streamflow regulations from the main dams. Human water demand was estimated from time series of demographic, socioeconomic and climatic data. Environmental flows were accounted for by defining streamflow thresholds under which withdrawals were strictly limited. Finally indicators comparing water availability to demand at strategic resource and demand nodes were computed. This framework was applied under different combinations of climatic and water use scenarios for the mid-21st to differentiate the impacts of climate- and human-induced changes on streamflow and water balance. Results showed that objective monthly environmental flows would be guaranteed in current climate conditions in both basins, yet in several areas this could imply limiting human water uses more than once every 5 years. The impact of the tested climate projections on both water availability and demand could question the water allocations and environmental requirements currently planned for the coming decades. Water shortages for human use could become more frequent and intense, and the pressure on water resources and aquatic ecosystems could intensify. Furthermore, the causes of unsustainability vary across sub-basins and scenarios, and in most areas results are highly dependent on the climate change scenario.« less

Sustainability of water uses in managed hydrosystems: human- and climate-induced changes for the mid-21st century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fabre, Julie; Ruelland, Denis; Dezetter, Alain

This paper assesses the sustainability of planned water uses in mesoscale river basins under multiple climate change scenarios, and contributes to determining the possible causes of unsustainability. We propose an assessment grounded in real-world water management issues, with water management scenarios built in collaboration with local water agencies. Furthermore, we present an analysis through indicators that relate to management goals and present the implications of climate uncertainty for our results, furthering the significance of our study for water management. A modeling framework integrating hydro-climatic and human dynamics and accounting for interactions between resource and demand was applied in two basinsmore » of different scales and with contrasting water uses: the Herault (2500 km 2, France) and the Ebro (85 000 km 2, Spain) basins. Natural streamflow was evaluated using a conceptual hydrological model. A demand-driven reservoir management model was designed to account for streamflow regulations from the main dams. Human water demand was estimated from time series of demographic, socioeconomic and climatic data. Environmental flows were accounted for by defining streamflow thresholds under which withdrawals were strictly limited. Finally indicators comparing water availability to demand at strategic resource and demand nodes were computed. This framework was applied under different combinations of climatic and water use scenarios for the mid-21st to differentiate the impacts of climate- and human-induced changes on streamflow and water balance. Results showed that objective monthly environmental flows would be guaranteed in current climate conditions in both basins, yet in several areas this could imply limiting human water uses more than once every 5 years. The impact of the tested climate projections on both water availability and demand could question the water allocations and environmental requirements currently planned for the coming decades. Water shortages for human use could become more frequent and intense, and the pressure on water resources and aquatic ecosystems could intensify. Furthermore, the causes of unsustainability vary across sub-basins and scenarios, and in most areas results are highly dependent on the climate change scenario.« less

A precipitation-runoff model for simulating natural streamflow conditions in the Smith River watershed, Montana, water years 1996-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, Katherine J.; Caldwell, Rodney R.; Stanley, Andrea K.

2014-01-01

This report documents the construction of a precipitation-runoff model for simulating natural streamflow in the Smith River watershed, Montana. This Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model, constructed in cooperation with the Meagher County Conservation District, can be used to examine the general hydrologic framework of the Smith River watershed, including quantification of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and streamflow; partitioning of streamflow between surface runoff and subsurface flow; and quantifying contributions to streamflow from several parts of the watershed. The model was constructed by using spatial datasets describing watershed topography, the streams, and the hydrologic characteristics of the basin soils and vegetation. Time-series data (daily total precipitation, and daily minimum and maximum temperature) were input to the model to simulate daily streamflow. The model was calibrated for water years 2002–2007 and evaluated for water years 1996–2001. Though water year 2008 was included in the study period to evaluate water-budget components, calibration and evaluation data were unavailable for that year. During the calibration and evaluation periods, simulated-natural flow values were compared to reconstructed-natural streamflow data. These reconstructed-natural streamflow data were calculated by adding Bureau of Reclamation’s depletions data to the observed streamflows. Reconstructed-natural streamflows represent estimates of streamflows for water years 1996–2007 assuming there was no agricultural water-resources development in the watershed. Additional calibration targets were basin mean monthly solar radiation and potential evapotranspiration. The model estimated the hydrologic processes in the Smith River watershed during the calibration and evaluation periods. Simulated-natural mean annual and mean monthly flows generally were the same or higher than the reconstructed-natural streamflow values during the calibration period, whereas they were lower during the evaluation period. The shape of the annual hydrographs for the simulated-natural daily streamflow values matched the shape of the hydrographs for the reconstructed-natural values for most of the calibration period, but daily streamflow values were underestimated during the evaluation period for water years 1996–1998. The model enabled a detailed evaluation of the components of the water budget within the Smith River watershed during the water year 1996–2008 study period. During this study period, simulated mean annual precipitation across the Smith River watershed was 16 inches, out of which 14 inches evaporated or transpired and 2 inches left the basin as streamflow. Per the precipitation-runoff model simulations, during most of the year, surface runoff rarely (less than 2 percent of the time during water years 2002–2008) makes up more than 10 percent of the total streamflow. Subsurface flow (the combination of interflow and groundwater flow) makes up most of the total streamflow (99 or more percent of total streamflow for 71 percent of the time during water years 2002–2008).

Seasonal streamflow forecast with machine learning and teleconnection indices in the context non-stationary climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haguma, D.; Leconte, R.

2017-12-01

Spatial and temporal water resources variability are associated with large-scale pressure and circulation anomalies known as teleconnections that influence the pattern of the atmospheric circulation. Teleconnection indices have been used successfully to forecast streamflow in short term. However, in some watersheds, classical methods cannot establish relationships between seasonal streamflow and teleconnection indices because of weak correlation. In this study, machine learning algorithms have been applied for seasonal streamflow forecast using teleconnection indices. Machine learning offers an alternative to classical methods to address the non-linear relationship between streamflow and teleconnection indices the context non-stationary climate. Two machine learning algorithms, random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM), with teleconnection indices associated with North American climatology, have been used to forecast inflows for one and two leading seasons for the Romaine River and Manicouagan River watersheds, located in Quebec, Canada. The indices are Pacific-North America (PNA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The results showed that the machine learning algorithms have an important predictive power for seasonal streamflow for one and two leading seasons. The RF performed better for training and SVM generally have better results with high predictive capability for testing. The RF which is an ensemble method, allowed to assess the uncertainty of the forecast. The integration of teleconnection indices responds to the seasonal forecast of streamflow in the conditions of the non-stationarity the climate, although the teleconnection indices have a weak correlation with streamflow.

Stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin precipitation, evapotranspiration, and natural streamflow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kolars, Kelsey A.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Ryberg, Karen R.

2016-02-24

The Souris River Basin is a 61,000-square-kilometer basin in the Provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba and the State of North Dakota. In May and June of 2011, record-setting rains were seen in the headwater areas of the basin. Emergency spillways of major reservoirs were discharging at full or nearly full capacity, and extensive flooding was seen in numerous downstream communities. To determine the probability of future extreme floods and droughts, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission, developed a stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin precipitation, evapotranspiration, and natural (unregulated) streamflow. Simulations from the model can be used in future studies to simulate regulated streamflow, design levees, and other structures; and to complete economic cost/benefit analyses.Long-term climatic variability was analyzed using tree-ring chronologies to hindcast precipitation to the early 1700s and compare recent wet and dry conditions to earlier extreme conditions. The extended precipitation record was consistent with findings from the Devils Lake and Red River of the North Basins (southeast of the Souris River Basin), supporting the idea that regional climatic patterns for many centuries have consisted of alternating wet and dry climate states.A stochastic climate simulation model for precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration for the Souris River Basin was developed using recorded meteorological data and extended precipitation records provided through tree-ring analysis. A significant climate transition was seen around1970, with 1912–69 representing a dry climate state and 1970–2011 representing a wet climate state. Although there were some distinct subpatterns within the basin, the predominant differences between the two states were higher spring through early fall precipitation and higher spring potential evapotranspiration for the wet compared to the dry state.A water-balance model was developed for simulating monthly natural (unregulated) mean streamflow based on precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration at select streamflow-gaging stations. The model was calibrated using streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey and Environment Canada, along with natural (unregulated) streamflow data from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Correlation coefficients between simulated and natural (unregulated) flows generally were high (greater than 0.8), and the seasonal means and standard deviations of the simulated flows closely matched the means and standard deviations of the natural (unregulated) flows. After calibrating the model for a monthly time step, monthly streamflow for each subbasin was disaggregated into three values per month, or an approximately 10-day time step, and a separate routing model was developed for simulating 10-day streamflow for downstream gages.The stochastic climate simulation model for precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration was combined with the water-balance model to simulate potential future sequences of 10-day mean streamflow for each of the streamflow-gaging station locations. Flood risk, as determined by equilibrium flow-frequency distributions for the dry (1912–69) and wet (1970–2011) climate states, was considerably higher for the wet state compared to the dry state. Future flood risk will remain high until the wet climate state ends, and for several years after that, because there may be a long lag-time between the return of drier conditions and the onset of a lower soil-moisture storage equilibrium.

Overview of ground-water recharge study sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Constantz, Jim; Adams, Kelsey S.; Stonestrom, David A.; Stonestrom, David A.; Constantz, Jim; Ferré, Ty P.A.; Leake, Stanley A.

2007-01-01

Multiyear studies were done to examine meteorologic and hydrogeologic controls on ephemeral streamflow and focused ground-water recharge at eight sites across the arid and semiarid southwestern United States. Campaigns of intensive data collection were conducted in the Great Basin, Mojave Desert, Sonoran Desert, Rio Grande Rift, and Colorado Plateau physiographic areas. During the study period (1997 to 2002), the southwestern region went from wetter than normal conditions associated with a strong El Niño climatic pattern (1997–1998) to drier than normal conditions associated with a La Niña climatic pattern marked by unprecedented warmth in the western tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans (1998–2002). The strong El Niño conditions roughly doubled precipitation at the Great Basin, Mojave Desert, and Colorado Plateau study sites. Precipitation at all sites trended generally lower, producing moderate- to severe-drought conditions by the end of the study. Streamflow in regional rivers indicated diminishing ground-water recharge conditions, with annual-flow volumes declining to 10–46 percent of their respective long-term averages by 2002. Local streamflows showed higher variability, reflecting smaller scales of integration (in time and space) of the study-site watersheds. By the end of the study, extended periods (9–15 months) of zero or negligible flow were observed at half the sites. Summer monsoonal rains generated the majority of streamflow and associated recharge in the Sonoran Desert sites and the more southerly Rio Grande Rift site, whereas winter storms and spring snowmelt dominated the northern and westernmost sites. Proximity to moisture sources (primarily the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of California) and meteorologic fluctuations, in concert with orography, largely control the generation of focused ground-water recharge from ephemeral streamflow, although other factors (geology, soil, and vegetation) also are important. Watershed area correlated weakly with focused infiltration volumes, the latter providing an upper bound on associated ground-water recharge. Estimates of annual focused infiltration for the research sites ranged from about 105 to 107 cubic meters from contributing areas that ranged from 26 to 2,260 square kilometers.

In Brief: Online database for instantaneous streamflow data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2007-11-01

Access to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) historical instantaneous streamflow discharge data, dating from around 1990, is now available online through the Instantaneous Data Archive (IDA), the USGS announced on 14 November. In this new system, users can find streamflow information reported at the time intervals at which it is collected, typically 15-minute to hourly intervals. Although instantaneous data have been available for many years, they were not accessible through the Internet. Robert Hirsch, USGS Associate Director of Water, said, ``A user-friendly archive of historical instantaneous streamflow data is important to many different users for such things as floodplain mapping, flood modeling, and estimating pollutant transport.''The site currently has about 1.5 billion instantaneous data values from 5500 stream gages in 26 states. The number of states and stream gages with data will continue to increase, according to the USGS. For more information, visit the Web site: http://ida.water.usgs.gov/ida/.

A multiple wavelet coherency method for temporal streamflow-precipitation-temperature relationships in 17 small catchments on the Loess Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Liu, B.

2017-12-01

Climate change and human activities are two critical factors causing the dramatical variations of streamflow in the Yellow River Basin of China during the last several decades. More and more attention has been paid to the temporal relationships of streamflow with precipitation and temperature recently. The objective of the current study was to explore the contributions of precipitation and temperature to the temporal variations of streamflow on the Loess Plateau using a multiple wavelet coherency method. Annual streamflow during 1961-2013 for 17 small catchments were collected from the Yellow River Conservancy Commission and annual precipitation and temperature for each catchment were derived from the meteorological data at the national weather stations across the Loess Plateau through the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System. An abrupt decrease was observed in the annual streamflow around year 2000 for any of the 17 catchments investigated, which was believed to be related with the extensive Grain for Green Project. According to bivariate wavelet coherences, however, annual streamflow showed strong temporal variations with annual precipitation at 8 out of the 17 catchments, where the percentage area of significant coherency (PASC) exceeded 50%. Especially in Weihe and Yiluohe catchments, the corresponding PASC were close to 100%, suggesting that annual precipitation change accounted for almost all the temporal streamflow variations. Compared to annual precipitation, the temporal correlation of temperature with streamflow was relatively small, as implied in the lower mean wavelet coherence (MWC) and PASC. Moreover, including temperature in addition to precipitation in the multiple wavelet coherency analysis failed to increase either MWC or PASC in any of the 17 catchments except for Qingjianhe and Qiushuihe catchments. It was indicated that for most catchments on the Loess Plateau, annual temperature was not significantly different from the red noise in explaining the additional variation in streamflow. In view of the small PASC values resulted for most catchments, there existed other environmental and/or anthropogenic factors responsible for the temporal variations of streamflow.

Adjusting measured peak discharges from an urbanizing watershed to reflect a stationary land use signal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beighley, R. Edward; Moglen, Glenn E.

2003-04-01

A procedure to adjust gauged streamflow data from watersheds urbanized during or after their gauging period is presented. The procedure adjusts streamflow to be representative of a fixed land use condition, which may reflect current or future development conditions. Our intent is to determine what an event resulting in a peak discharge in, for example, 1950 (i.e., before urbanization) would produce on the current urban watershed. While past approaches assumed uniform spatial and temporal changes in urbanization, this study focuses on the use of geographic information systems (GIS) based methodologies for precisely locating in space and time where land use change has occurred. This information is incorporated into a hydrologic model to simulate the change in discharge as a result of changing land use conditions. In this paper, we use historical aerial photographs, GIS linked tax-map data, and recent land use/land cover data to recreate the spatial development history of eight gauged watersheds in the Baltimore-Washington, D. C., metropolitan area. Using our procedure to determine discharge series representative of the current urban watersheds, we found that the increase of the adjusted 2-year discharge ranged from 16 to 70 percent compared with the measured annual maximum discharge series. For the 100-year discharge the adjusted values ranged from 0 to 47 percent greater than the measured values. Additionally, relationships between the increase in flood flows and four measures of urbanization (increase in urban land, decrease in forested land, increase in high-density development, and the spatial development pattern) are investigated for predicting the increase in flood flows for ungauged watersheds. Watersheds with the largest increases in flood flows typically had more extensive development in the areas far removed from the outlet. In contrast, watersheds with development located nearer to the outlet typically had the smallest increases in peak discharge.

Simulation of daily streamflow for nine river basins in eastern Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haj, Adel E.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Hutchinson, Kasey J.

2015-10-14

The accuracy of Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model streamflow estimates of nine river basins in eastern Iowa as compared to measured values at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations varied. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models of nine river basins in eastern Iowa were satisfactory at estimating daily streamflow at 57 of the 79 calibration sites and 13 of the 14 validation sites based on statistical results. Unsatisfactory performance can be contributed to several factors: (1) low flow, no flow, and flashy flow conditions in headwater subbasins having a small drainage area; (2) poor representation of the groundwater and storage components of flow within a basin; (3) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and water use; and (4) the availability and accuracy of meteorological input data. The Precipitation- Runoff Modeling System models of nine river basins in eastern Iowa will provide water-resource managers with a consistent and documented method for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites and aid in environmental studies, hydraulic design, water management, and water-quality projects.

Groundwater and surface-water interaction, water quality, and processes affecting loads of dissolved solids, selenium, and uranium in Fountain Creek near Pueblo, Colorado, 2012–2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arnold, L. Rick; Ortiz, Roderick F.; Brown, Christopher R.; Watts, Kenneth R.

2016-11-28

In 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Arkansas River Basin Regional Resource Planning Group, initiated a study of groundwater and surface-water interaction, water quality, and loading of dissolved solids, selenium, and uranium to Fountain Creek near Pueblo, Colorado, to improve understanding of sources and processes affecting loading of these constituents to streams in the Arkansas River Basin. Fourteen monitoring wells were installed in a series of three transects across Fountain Creek near Pueblo, and temporary streamgages were established at each transect to facilitate data collection for the study. Groundwater and surface-water interaction was characterized by using hydrogeologic mapping, groundwater and stream-surface levels, groundwater and stream temperatures, vertical hydraulic-head gradients and ratios of oxygen and hydrogen isotopes in the hyporheic zone, and streamflow mass-balance measurements. Water quality was characterized by collecting periodic samples from groundwater, surface water, and the hyporheic zone for analysis of dissolved solids, selenium, uranium, and other selected constituents and by evaluating the oxidation-reduction condition for each groundwater sample under different hydrologic conditions throughout the study period. Groundwater loads to Fountain Creek and in-stream loads were computed for the study area, and processes affecting loads of dissolved solids, selenium, and uranium were evaluated on the basis of geology, geochemical conditions, land and water use, and evapoconcentration.During the study period, the groundwater-flow system generally contributed flow to Fountain Creek and its hyporheic zone (as a single system) except for the reach between the north and middle transects. However, the direction of flow between the stream, the hyporheic zone, and the near-stream aquifer was variable in response to streamflow and stage. During periods of low streamflow, Fountain Creek generally gained flow from groundwater. However, during periods of high streamflow, the hydraulic gradient between groundwater and the stream temporarily reversed, causing the stream to lose flow to groundwater.Concentrations of dissolved solids, selenium, and uranium in groundwater generally had greater spatial variability than surface water or hyporheic-zone samples, and constituent concentrations in groundwater generally were greater than in surface water. Constituent concentrations in the hyporheic zone typically were similar to or intermediate between concentrations in groundwater and surface water. Concentrations of dissolved solids, selenium, uranium, and other constituents in groundwater samples collected from wells located on the east side of the north monitoring well transect were substantially greater than for other groundwater, surface-water, and hyporheic-zone samples. With one exception, groundwater samples collected from wells on the east side of the north transect exhibited oxic to mixed (oxic-anoxic) conditions, whereas most other groundwater samples exhibited anoxic to suboxic conditions. Concentrations of dissolved solids, selenium, and uranium in surface water generally increased in a downstream direction along Fountain Creek from the north transect to the south transect and exhibited an inverse relation to streamflow with highest concentration occurring during periods of low streamflow and lowest concentrations occurring during periods of high streamflow.Groundwater loads of dissolved solids, selenium, and uranium to Fountain Creek were small because of the small amount of groundwater flowing to the stream under typical low-streamflow conditions. In-stream loads of dissolved solids, selenium, and uranium in Fountain Creek varied by date, primarily in relation to streamflow at each transect and were much larger than computed constituent loads from groundwater. In-stream loads generally decreased with decreases in streamflow and increased as streamflow increased. In-stream loads of dissolved solids and selenium increased between the north and middle transects but generally decreased between the middle and south transects. By contrast, uranium loads generally decreased between the north and middle transects but increased between the middle and south transects. In-stream load differences between transects appear primarily to be related to differences in streamflow. However, because groundwater typically flows to Fountain Creek under low-flow conditions, and groundwater has greater concentrations of dissolved solids, selenium, and uranium than surface water in Fountain Creek, increases in loads between transects likely are affected by inflow of groundwater to the stream, which can account for a substantial proportion of the in-stream load difference between transects. When loads decreased between transects, the primary cause likely was decreased streamflow as a result of losses to groundwater and flow through the hyporheic zone. However, localized groundwater inflow likely attenuated the magnitude by which the in-stream loads decreased.The combination of localized soluble geologic sources and oxic conditions likely is the primary reason for the occurrence of high concentrations of dissolved solids, selenium, and uranium in groundwater on the east side of the north monitoring well transect. To evaluate conditions potentially responsible for differences in water quality and redox conditions, physical characteristics such as depth to water, saturated thickness, screen depth below the water table, screen height above bedrock, and aquifer hydraulic conductivity were compared by using Wilcoxon rank-sum tests. Results indicated no significant difference between depth to water, screen height above bedrock, and hydraulic conductivity for groundwater samples collected from wells on the east side of the north transect and groundwater samples from all other wells. However, saturated thickness and screen depth below the water table both were significantly smaller for groundwater samples collected from wells on the east side of the north transect than for groundwater samples from other wells, indicating that these characteristics might be related to the elevated constituent concentrations found at that location. Similarly, saturated thickness and screen depth below the water table were significantly smaller for groundwater samples under oxic or mixed (oxic-anoxic) conditions than for those under anoxic to suboxic conditions.The greater constituent concentrations at wells on the east side of the north transect also could, in part, be related to groundwater discharge from an unnamed alluvial drainage located directly upgradient from that location. Although the quantity and quality of water discharging from the drainage is not known, the drainage appears to collect water from a residential area located upgradient to the east of the wells, and groundwater could become concentrated in nitrate and other dissolved constituents before flowing through the drainage. High levels of nitrate, whether from anthropogenic or natural geologic sources, could promote more soluble forms of selenium and other constituents by affecting the redox condition of groundwater. Whether oxic conditions at wells on the east side of the north transect are the result of physical characteristics or of groundwater inflow from the alluvial drainage, the oxic conditions appear to cause increased dissolution of minerals from the shallow shale bedrock at that location. Because ratios of hydrogen and oxygen isotopes indicate evaporation likely has not had a substantial effect on groundwater, constituent concentrations at that location likely are not the result of evapoconcentration. 

Regional variability in the accuracy of statistical reproductions of historical time series of daily streamflow at ungaged locations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farmer, W. H.; Archfield, S. A.; Over, T. M.; Kiang, J. E.

2015-12-01

In the United States and across the globe, the majority of stream reaches and rivers are substantially impacted by water use or remain ungaged. The result is large gaps in the availability of natural streamflow records from which to infer hydrologic understanding and inform water resources management. From basin-specific to continent-wide scales, many efforts have been undertaken to develop methods to estimate ungaged streamflow. This work applies and contrasts several statistical models of daily streamflow to more than 1,700 reference-quality streamgages across the conterminous United States using a cross-validation methodology. The variability of streamflow simulation performance across the country exhibits a pattern familiar to other continental scale modeling efforts performed for the United States. For portions of the West Coast and the dense, relatively homogeneous and humid regions of the eastern United States models produce reliable estimates of daily streamflow using many different prediction methods. Model performance for the middle portion of the United States, marked by more heterogeneous and arid conditions, and with larger contributing areas and sparser networks of streamgages, is consistently poor. A discussion of the difficulty of statistical interpolation and regionalization in these regions raises additional questions of data availability and quality, hydrologic process representation and dominance, and intrinsic variability.

A statistical data assimilation method for seasonal streamflow forecasting to optimize hydropower reservoir management in data-scarce regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arsenault, R.; Mai, J.; Latraverse, M.; Tolson, B.

2017-12-01

Probabilistic ensemble forecasts generated by the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) methodology are subject to biases due to errors in the hydrological model's initial states. In day-to-day operations, hydrologists must compensate for discrepancies between observed and simulated states such as streamflow. However, in data-scarce regions, little to no information is available to guide the streamflow assimilation process. The manual assimilation process can then lead to more uncertainty due to the numerous options available to the forecaster. Furthermore, the model's mass balance may be compromised and could affect future forecasts. In this study we propose a data-driven approach in which specific variables that may be adjusted during assimilation are defined. The underlying principle was to identify key variables that would be the most appropriate to modify during streamflow assimilation depending on the initial conditions such as the time period of the assimilation, the snow water equivalent of the snowpack and meteorological conditions. The variables to adjust were determined by performing an automatic variational data assimilation on individual (or combinations of) model state variables and meteorological forcing. The assimilation aimed to simultaneously optimize: (1) the error between the observed and simulated streamflow at the timepoint where the forecasts starts and (2) the bias between medium to long-term observed and simulated flows, which were simulated by running the model with the observed meteorological data on a hindcast period. The optimal variables were then classified according to the initial conditions at the time period where the forecast is initiated. The proposed method was evaluated by measuring the average electricity generation of a hydropower complex in Québec, Canada driven by this method. A test-bed which simulates the real-world assimilation, forecasting, water release optimization and decision-making of a hydropower cascade was developed to assess the performance of each individual process in the reservoir management chain. Here the proposed method was compared to the PF algorithm while keeping all other elements intact. Preliminary results are encouraging in terms of power generation and robustness for the proposed approach.

Human water consumption intensifies hydrological drought worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Y.; Van Beek, L. P.; Wanders, N.; Bierkens, M. F.

2012-12-01

Over the past decades, human water consumption has more than doubled, and reduced streamflow over various regions of the world. However, it remains unclear to what degree human water consumption intensifies hydrological droughts, i.e. the occurrence of anomalously low streamflow. Here, we quantify over the period 1960-2010 the impact of human water consumption on the intensity and frequency of hydrological droughts worldwide. We simulated streamflow by the global hydrological and water resources model PCR-GLOBWB at a 0.5 degree spatial resolution, and reduced the amount of streamflow with different levels of human water consumption over the period 1960-2010. We applied the commonly used variable threshold level method to identify below-normal water availability as the onset of hydrological droughts. We then standardized the deficit volume dividing relative to the threshold level to express the intensity of drought conditions to normal streamflow conditions. The results show that human water consumption substantially reduced local and downstream streamflow in many regions of the world. This subsequently intensified hydrological droughts regionally by 10-500%. Irrigation is responsible for the intensification of hydrological droughts over western and central U.S., southern Europe, Asia, and southeastern Australia, whereas the impact of industrial and households' consumption on the intensification is considerably larger over eastern U.S., and western and central Europe. The results also show that drought frequency increased by more than 27% compared to pristine or natural condition as a result of human water consumption. The intensification of drought frequency is most severe over Asia, but also substantial over North America and Europe. Importantly, global population under severe hydrological droughts considerably increased from 0.7 billion in 1960 to 2.2 billion in 2010 due to rapid population growth. As a limited validation exercise, we compared simulated deficit volumes to those derived from observed river discharges for some important basins of the world. The comparison shows generally good agreement, but large discrepancies occurred when simulated river discharge failed to reproduce well the peak discharge and the mean amplitude in seasonal discharges, regardless of high correlation obtained from comparison of monthly discharges.

2011 Souris River flood—Will it happen again?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nustad, Rochelle A.; Kolars, Kelsey A.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Ryberg, Karen R.

2016-09-29

The Souris River Basin is a 61,000 square kilometer basin in the provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba and the state of North Dakota. Record setting rains in May and June of 2011 led to record flooding with peak annual streamflow values (762 cubic meters per second [m3/s]) more than twice that of any previously recorded peak streamflow and more than five times the estimated 100 year postregulation streamflow (142 m3/s) at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging station above Minot, North Dakota. Upstream from Minot, N. Dak., the Souris River is regulated by three reservoirs in Saskatchewan (Rafferty, Boundary, and Alameda) and Lake Darling in North Dakota. During the 2011 flood, the city of Minot, N. Dak., experienced devastating damages with more than 4,000 homes flooded and 11,000 evacuated. As a result, the Souris River Basin Task Force recommended the U.S. Geological Survey (in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission) develop a model for estimating the probabilities of future flooding and drought. The model that was developed took on four parts: (1) looking at past climate, (2) predicting future climate, (3) developing a streamflow model in response to certain climatic variables, and (4) combining future climate estimates with the streamflow model to predict future streamflow events. By taking into consideration historical climate record and trends in basin response to various climatic conditions, it was determined flood risk will remain high in the Souris River Basin until the wet climate state ends.

Streamflow Impacts of Biofuel Policy-Driven Landscape Change

PubMed Central

Khanal, Sami; Anex, Robert P.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Herzmann, Daryl E.

2014-01-01

Likely changes in precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) resulting from policy-driven expansion of bioenergy crops in the United States are shown to create significant changes in streamflow volumes and increase water stress in the High Plains. Regional climate simulations for current and biofuel cropping system scenarios are evaluated using the same atmospheric forcing data over the period 1979–2004 using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model coupled to the NOAH land surface model. PET is projected to increase under the biofuel crop production scenario. The magnitude of the mean annual increase in PET is larger than the inter-annual variability of change in PET, indicating that PET increase is a forced response to the biofuel cropping system land use. Across the conterminous U.S., the change in mean streamflow volume under the biofuel scenario is estimated to range from negative 56% to positive 20% relative to a business-as-usual baseline scenario. In Kansas and Oklahoma, annual streamflow volume is reduced by an average of 20%, and this reduction in streamflow volume is due primarily to increased PET. Predicted increase in mean annual P under the biofuel crop production scenario is lower than its inter-annual variability, indicating that additional simulations would be necessary to determine conclusively whether predicted change in P is a response to biofuel crop production. Although estimated changes in streamflow volume include the influence of P change, sensitivity results show that PET change is the significantly dominant factor causing streamflow change. Higher PET and lower streamflow due to biofuel feedstock production are likely to increase water stress in the High Plains. When pursuing sustainable biofuels policy, decision-makers should consider the impacts of feedstock production on water scarcity. PMID:25289698

Estimating rainfall time series and model parameter distributions using model data reduction and inversion techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, Ashley J.; Walker, Jeffrey P.; Pauwels, Valentijn R. N.

2017-08-01

Floods are devastating natural hazards. To provide accurate, precise, and timely flood forecasts, there is a need to understand the uncertainties associated within an entire rainfall time series, even when rainfall was not observed. The estimation of an entire rainfall time series and model parameter distributions from streamflow observations in complex dynamic catchments adds skill to current areal rainfall estimation methods, allows for the uncertainty of entire rainfall input time series to be considered when estimating model parameters, and provides the ability to improve rainfall estimates from poorly gauged catchments. Current methods to estimate entire rainfall time series from streamflow records are unable to adequately invert complex nonlinear hydrologic systems. This study aims to explore the use of wavelets in the estimation of rainfall time series from streamflow records. Using the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) to reduce rainfall dimensionality for the catchment of Warwick, Queensland, Australia, it is shown that model parameter distributions and an entire rainfall time series can be estimated. Including rainfall in the estimation process improves streamflow simulations by a factor of up to 1.78. This is achieved while estimating an entire rainfall time series, inclusive of days when none was observed. It is shown that the choice of wavelet can have a considerable impact on the robustness of the inversion. Combining the use of a likelihood function that considers rainfall and streamflow errors with the use of the DWT as a model data reduction technique allows the joint inference of hydrologic model parameters along with rainfall.

Post-processing ECMWF precipitation and temperature ensemble reforecasts for operational hydrologic forecasting at various spatial scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verkade, J. S.; Brown, J. D.; Reggiani, P.; Weerts, A. H.

2013-09-01

The ECMWF temperature and precipitation ensemble reforecasts are evaluated for biases in the mean, spread and forecast probabilities, and how these biases propagate to streamflow ensemble forecasts. The forcing ensembles are subsequently post-processed to reduce bias and increase skill, and to investigate whether this leads to improved streamflow ensemble forecasts. Multiple post-processing techniques are used: quantile-to-quantile transform, linear regression with an assumption of bivariate normality and logistic regression. Both the raw and post-processed ensembles are run through a hydrologic model of the river Rhine to create streamflow ensembles. The results are compared using multiple verification metrics and skill scores: relative mean error, Brier skill score and its decompositions, mean continuous ranked probability skill score and its decomposition, and the ROC score. Verification of the streamflow ensembles is performed at multiple spatial scales: relatively small headwater basins, large tributaries and the Rhine outlet at Lobith. The streamflow ensembles are verified against simulated streamflow, in order to isolate the effects of biases in the forcing ensembles and any improvements therein. The results indicate that the forcing ensembles contain significant biases, and that these cascade to the streamflow ensembles. Some of the bias in the forcing ensembles is unconditional in nature; this was resolved by a simple quantile-to-quantile transform. Improvements in conditional bias and skill of the forcing ensembles vary with forecast lead time, amount, and spatial scale, but are generally moderate. The translation to streamflow forecast skill is further muted, and several explanations are considered, including limitations in the modelling of the space-time covariability of the forcing ensembles and the presence of storages.

Hydrology and water quality of lakes and streams in Orange County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

German, Edward R.; Adamski, James C.

2005-01-01

Orange County, Florida, is continuing to experience a large growth in population. In 1920, the population of Orange County was less than 20,000; in 2000, the population was about 896,000. The amount of urban area around Orlando has increased considerably, especially in the northwest part of the County. The eastern one-third of the County, however, had relatively little increase in urbanization from 1977-97. The increase of population, tourism, and industry in Orange County and nearby areas changed land use; land that was once agricultural has become urban, industrial, and major recreation areas. These changes could impact surface-water resources that are important for wildlife habitat, for esthetic reasons, and potentially for public supply. Streamflow characteristics and water quality could be affected in various ways. As a result of changing land use, changes in the hydrology and water quality of Orange County's lakes and streams could occur. Median runoff in 10 selected Orange County streams ranges from about 20 inches per year (in/yr) in the Wekiva River to about 1.1 in/yr in Cypress Creek. The runoff for the Wekiva River is significantly higher than other river basins because of the relatively constant spring discharge that sustains streamflow, even during drought conditions. The low runoff for the Cypress Creek basin results from a lack of sustained inflow from ground water and a relatively large area of lakes within the drainage basin. Streamflow characteristics for 13 stations were computed on an annual basis and examined for temporal trends. Results of the trend testing indicate changes in annual mean streamflow, 1-day high streamflow, or 7-day low streamflow at 8 of the 13 stations. However, changes in 7-day low streamflow are more common than changes in annual mean or 1-day high streamflow. There is probably no single reason for the changes in 7-day low streamflows, and for most streams, it is difficult to determine definite reasons for the flow increases. Low flows in the Econlockhatchee River at Chuluota have increased because of discharge of treated wastewater since 1982. However, trends in increasing 7-day low streamflow are evident before 1982, which cannot be attributed to wastewater discharge. Some of the increases in 7-day low flows may be related to drainage changes resulting from increased development in Orange County. Development for most purposes, including those as diverse as cattle grazing and residential construction, may involve modification of surface drainage through stream channelization and construction of canals. These changes in land drainage can lower the water table, resulting in reductions of regional evapotranspiration rates and increased streamflow. Another possible cause of increasing low flows in streams is use of water from the Floridan aquifer system for irrigation. Runoff of irrigation water or increased seepage from irrigated areas to streams could increase base streamflow compared to natural conditions. Water-level data were analyzed to determine temporal trends from 83 lakes that had more than 15 years of record. There were significant temporal trends in 33 of the 83 lakes (40 percent) over the entire period of record. Of these 33 lakes, 14 had increasing water levels and 19 lakes had decreasing water levels. The downward trends in long-term lake levels could in part be due to high rainfall accumulation in 1960-1961, which included precipitation from Hurricane Donna (September 1960). The high rainfall resulted in historical high-water levels in many lakes in 1960 or 1961. A large range of water-quality conditions exists in lakes and streams of Orange County (2000-01). Specific conductance in lake samples ranged from 57 to 1,185 microsiemens per centimeter. Values of pH ranged from 3.2 to 8.7 in stream samples and 4.6 to 9.6 in lake samples. Total nitrogen concentrations ranged from less than 0.2 to 7.1 milligrams per liter (mg/L) as nitrogen in stream samples, and

Comparison of methods for determining streamflow requirements for aquatic habitat protection at selected sites on the Assabet and Charles Rivers, Eastern Massachusetts, 2000-02

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parker, Gene W.; Armstrong, David S.; Richards, Todd A.

2004-01-01

Four methods used to determine streamflow requirements for habitat protection at nine critical riffle reaches in the Assabet River and Charles River Basins were compared. The methods include three standard setting techniques?R2Cross, Wetted Perimeter, and Tennant?and a diagnostic method, the Range of Variability Approach. One study reach is on the main stem of the Assabet River, four reaches are on tributaries to the Assabet River (Cold Harbor Brook, Danforth Brook, Fort Meadow Brook, and Elizabeth Brook), three are on the main stem of the Charles River, and one is on a tributary to the Charles River (Mine Brook). The strength of the R2Cross and Wetted-Perimeter methods is that they may be applied at ungaged locations whereas the Tennant method and the Range of Variability Approach require a period of streamflow record for analysis. Fish community assessments conducted at or near riffle sites in flowing reaches of the Assabet River and Charles River Basins were used to indicate ecological conditions. The fish communities in the main stem and tributary reaches of both the Assabet and Charles River Basins indicated degraded aquatic ecosystems. However, the degree of degradation differs between the two basins. The extreme predominance of tolerant, generalist species in the Charles River fish community demon-strates the cumulative impacts of flow, habitat, and water-chemistry degradation, combined with the effects of nearby impoundments and changing land use. The range of discharges for nine ungaged riffle reaches defined by the median R2Cross 3-of-3 criteria, R2Cross 2-of-3 criteria, and Wetted-Perimeter streamflow requirements, was 0.86 cubic foot per second per square mile, 0.18 cubic foot per second per square mile, and 0.23 cubic foot per second per square mile, respectively. Application of R2Cross and Wetted-Perimeter methods to sites with altered streamflows or at sites that are riffles only at low to moderate flows can result in a greater variability of streamflow requirements than would result if the methods were applied to riffles on natural channels with unaltered streamflows. The R2Cross 2-of-3 criteria and the Wetted-Perimeter streamflow requirements for the Assabet and Charles River sites show narrower interquartile ranges and lower median streamflow requirements than for 10 index streamflow-gaging stations in southern New England. This is especially evident for the R2Cross 2-of-3 criteria and Wetted-Perimeter results that were close to half of the flow requirements determined at the 10 southern New England stations. The R2Cross and Wetted-Perimeter methods were also compared to the Range of Variability Approach analysis and the Tennant Method. The median R2Cross 3-of-3 criteria streamflow requirement for the nine riffles is close to the 75th percentile of the monthly mean flows during the summer low-flow period from six streamflow-gaging stations near the Assabet and Charles River Basins having mostly unaltered flow. This streamflow requirement is close to the median Tennant 40-percent-flow requirement for good habitat condi-tion for the same six nearby stations. The R2Cross 2-of-3 criteria and Wetted-Perimeter results were less than the 25th-percentile of monthly mean flows during the summer months for the six stations. These streamflow requirements are in the poor habitat range as indicated by a Tennant analysis of the same six stations. These comparisons indicate that the R2Cross and Wetted-Perimeter methods underestimate streamflow requirements when applied to sites in smaller drainage areas and channels that are runs at higher flows.

Projected Changes to Streamflow Characteristics in Quebec Basins as Simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM4)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huziy, O.; Sushama, L.; Khaliq, M.; Lehner, B.; Laprise, R.; Roy, R.

2011-12-01

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007), an intensification of the global hydrological cycle and increase in precipitation for some regions around the world, including the northern mid- to high-latitudes, is expected in future climate. This will have an impact on mean and extreme flow characteristics, which need to be assessed for better development of adaptation strategies. Analysis of the mean and extreme streamflow characteristics for Quebec (North-eastern Canada) basins in current climate and their projected changes in future climate are assessed using a 10 member ensemble of current (1970 - 1999) and future (2041 - 2070) Canadian RCM (CRCM4) simulations. Validation of streamflow characteristics, performed by comparing modeled values with those observed, available from the Centre d'expertise hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ) shows that the model captures reasonably well the high flows. Results suggest increase in mean and 10 year return levels of 1 day high flows, which appear significant for most of the northern basins.

Summary of hydrologic conditions in Kansas, water year 2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Louen, Justin M.

2017-04-06

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Federal, State, and local agencies, maintains a long-term network of hydrologic monitoring sites in Kansas. Real-time data are collected at 216 streamgage sites and are verified throughout the year with regular measurements of streamflow made by USGS personnel. Annual assessments of hydrologic conditions are made by comparing statistical analyses of current and historical water year (WY) data for the period of record. A WY is the 12-month period from October 1 through September 30 and is designated by the calendar year in which the period ends. Long-term monitoring of hydrologic conditions in Kansas provides critical information for water-supply management, flood forecasting, reservoir operations, irrigation scheduling, bridge and culvert design, ecological monitoring, and many other uses.

Summary of Hydrologic Conditions in Georgia, 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knaak, Andrew E.; Joiner, John K.; Peck, Michael F.

2009-01-01

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) Georgia Water Science Center (WSC) maintains a long-term hydrologic monitoring network of more than 290 real-time streamgages, more than 170 groundwater wells, and 10 lake and reservoir monitoring stations. One of the many benefits of data collected from this monitoring network is that analysis of the data provides an overview of the hydrologic conditions of rivers, creeks, reservoirs, and aquifers in Georgia. Hydrologic conditions are determined by statistical analysis of data collected during the current water year (WY) and comparison of the results to historical data collected at long-term stations. During the drought that persisted through 2008, the USGS succeeded in verifying and documenting numerous historic low-flow statistics at many streamgages and current water levels in aquifers, lakes, and reservoirs in Georgia. Streamflow data from the 2008 WY indicate that this drought is one of the most severe on record when compared to drought periods of 1950-1957, 1985-1989, and 1999-2002.

Tributary Reservoir Regulation Activities (August 1994 - July 1995)

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-12-01

several counties in the Black Hills region. Between March and May 1995, thirty-two USGS streamflow gages throughout South Dakota experienced record...moisture and streamflow in the James River and Pipestem Creek basins were above normal and any snowmelt or spring runoff would result in high inflow...HQUSACE have requested that the potential loss of life (LOL) analysis for existing and modified conditions be refined. This work will be completed in

Changes in baseflow conditions over a 42 year observation period for the Little River Experimental Watershed in South Georgia

Treesearch

David D. Bosch; Randall G. Williams; Timothy C. Strickland; Jeff G. Arnold; Peter G. Allen

2016-01-01

Hydrology is the driving force of sediment, nutrient, and pesticide movement. Separation of streamflow hydrographs into rapid surface runoff and baseflow can vastly improve our understanding of chemical transport. In addition, characterizing these two components of streamflow can also greatly improve overall watershed hydrologic budgets which are critical for accurate...

Watershed analysis of the Salmon River watershed, Washington : hydrology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bidlake, William R.

2003-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey analyzed selected hydrologic conditions as part of a watershed analysis of the Salmon River watershed, Washington, conducted by the Quinault Indian Nation. The selected hydrologic conditions were analyzed according to a framework of hydrologic key questions that were identified for the watershed. The key questions were posed to better understand the natural, physical, and biological features of the watershed that control hydrologic responses; to better understand current streamflow characteristics, including peak and low flows; to describe any evidence that forest harvesting and road construction have altered frequency and magnitude of peak and low flows within the watershed; to describe what is currently known about the distribution and extent of wetlands and any impacts of land management activities on wetlands; and to describe how hydrologic monitoring within the watershed might help to detect future hydrologic change, to preserve critical ecosystem functions, and to protect public and private property.

Wavelet-based time series bootstrap model for multidecadal streamflow simulation using climate indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erkyihun, Solomon Tassew; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Zagona, Edith; Lall, Upmanu; Nowak, Kenneth

2016-05-01

A model to generate stochastic streamflow projections conditioned on quasi-oscillatory climate indices such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) is presented. Recognizing that each climate index has underlying band-limited components that contribute most of the energy of the signals, we first pursue a wavelet decomposition of the signals to identify and reconstruct these features from annually resolved historical data and proxy based paleoreconstructions of each climate index covering the period from 1650 to 2012. A K-Nearest Neighbor block bootstrap approach is then developed to simulate the total signal of each of these climate index series while preserving its time-frequency structure and marginal distributions. Finally, given the simulated climate signal time series, a K-Nearest Neighbor bootstrap is used to simulate annual streamflow series conditional on the joint state space defined by the simulated climate index for each year. We demonstrate this method by applying it to simulation of streamflow at Lees Ferry gauge on the Colorado River using indices of two large scale climate forcings: Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), which are known to modulate the Colorado River Basin (CRB) hydrology at multidecadal time scales. Skill in stochastic simulation of multidecadal projections of flow using this approach is demonstrated.

Comparison of streamflow and water-quality data collection techniques for the Saginaw River, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoard, C.J.; Holtschlag, D.J.; Duris, J.W.; James, D.A.; Obenauer, D.J.

2012-01-01

In 2009, the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality and the U.S. Geological Survey developed a plan to compare the effect of various streamgaging and water-quality collection techniques on streamflow and stream water-quality data for the Saginaw River, Michigan. The Saginaw River is the primary contributor of surface runoff to Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron, draining approximately 70 percent of the Saginaw Bay watershed. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has listed the Saginaw Bay system as an "Area of Concern" due to many factors, including excessive sediment and nutrient concentrations in the water. Current efforts to estimate loading of sediment and nutrients to Saginaw Bay utilize water-quality samples collected using a surface-grab technique and flow data that are uncertain during specific conditions. Comparisons of current flow and water-quality sampling techniques to alternative techniques were assessed between April 2009 and September 2009 at two locations in the Saginaw River. Streamflow estimated using acoustic Doppler current profiling technology was compared to a traditional stage-discharge technique. Complex conditions resulting from the influence of Saginaw Bay on the Saginaw River were able to be captured using the acoustic technology, while the traditional stage-discharge technique failed to quantify these effects. Water-quality samples were collected at two locations and on eight different dates, utilizing both surface-grab and depth-integrating multiple-vertical techniques. Sixteen paired samples were collected and analyzed for suspended sediment, turbidity, total phosphorus, total nitrogen, orthophosphate, nitrite, nitrate, and ammonia. Results indicate that concentrations of constituents associated with suspended material, such as suspended sediment, turbidity, and total phosphorus, are underestimated when samples are collected using the surface-grab technique. The median magnitude of the relative percent difference in concentration based on sampling technique was 37 percent for suspended sediment, 26 percent for turbidity, and 9.7 percent for total phosphorus samples collected at both. Acoustic techniques were also used to assist in the determination of the effectiveness of using acoustic-backscatter information for estimating the suspended-sediment concentration of the river water. Backscatter data was collected by use of an acoustic Doppler current profiler, and a Van Dorn manual sampler was simultaneously used to collect discrete water samples at 10 depths (3.5, 7.5, 11, 14, 15.5, 17.5, 19.5, 20.5, 22, and 24.5 ft below the water surface) along two vertical profiles near the center of the Saginaw River near Bay City. The Van Dorn samples were analyzed for suspended-sediment concentrations, and these data were then used to develop a relationship between acoustic-backscatter data. Acoustic-backscatter data was strongly correlated to sediment concentrations and, by using a linear regression, was able to explain 89 percent of the variability. Although this regression technique showed promise for using acoustic backscatter to estimate suspended-sediment concentration, attempts to compare suspended-sediment concentrations to the acoustic signal-to-noise ratio estimates, recorded at the fixed acoustic streamflow-gaging station near Bay City (04157061), resulted in a poor correlation.

Analysis of surface-water data network in Kansas for effectiveness in providing regional streamflow information; with a section on theory and application of generalized least squares

USGS Publications Warehouse

Medina, K.D.; Tasker, Gary D.

1987-01-01

This report documents the results of an analysis of the surface-water data network in Kansas for its effectiveness in providing regional streamflow information. The network was analyzed using generalized least squares regression. The correlation and time-sampling error of the streamflow characteristic are considered in the generalized least squares method. Unregulated medium-, low-, and high-flow characteristics were selected to be representative of the regional information that can be obtained from streamflow-gaging-station records for use in evaluating the effectiveness of continuing the present network stations, discontinuing some stations, and (or) adding new stations. The analysis used streamflow records for all currently operated stations that were not affected by regulation and for discontinued stations for which unregulated flow characteristics, as well as physical and climatic characteristics, were available. The State was divided into three network areas, western, northeastern, and southeastern Kansas, and analysis was made for the three streamflow characteristics in each area, using three planning horizons. The analysis showed that the maximum reduction of sampling mean-square error for each cost level could be obtained by adding new stations and discontinuing some current network stations. Large reductions in sampling mean-square error for low-flow information could be achieved in all three network areas, the reduction in western Kansas being the most dramatic. The addition of new stations would be most beneficial for mean-flow information in western Kansas. The reduction of sampling mean-square error for high-flow information would benefit most from the addition of new stations in western Kansas. Southeastern Kansas showed the smallest error reduction in high-flow information. A comparison among all three network areas indicated that funding resources could be most effectively used by discontinuing more stations in northeastern and southeastern Kansas and establishing more new stations in western Kansas.

Improving Streamflow Forecasts Using Predefined Sea Surface Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalra, A.; Ahmad, S.

2011-12-01

With the increasing evidence of climate variability, water resources managers in the western United States are faced with greater challenges of developing long range streamflow forecast. This is further aggravated by the increases in climate extremes such as floods and drought caused by climate variability. Over the years, climatologists have identified several modes of climatic variability and their relationship with streamflow. These climate modes have the potential of being used as predictor in models for improving the streamflow lead time. With this as the motivation, the current research focuses on increasing the streamflow lead time using predefine climate indices. A data driven model i.e. Support Vector Machine (SVM) based on the statistical learning theory is used to predict annual streamflow volume 3-year in advance. The SVM model is a learning system that uses a hypothesis space of linear functions in a Kernel induced higher dimensional feature space, and is trained with a learning algorithm from the optimization theory. Annual oceanic-atmospheric indices, comprising of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), El Niño-Southern Oscillations (ENSO), and a new Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data set of "Hondo" Region for a period of 1906-2005 are used to generate annual streamflow volumes. The SVM model is applied to three gages i.e. Cisco, Green River, and Lees Ferry in the Upper Colorado River Basin in the western United States. Based on the performance measures the model shows very good forecasts, and the forecast are in good agreement with measured streamflow volumes. Previous research has identified NAO and ENSO as main drivers for extending streamflow forecast lead-time in the UCRB. Inclusion of "Hondo Region" SST information further improve the model's forecasting ability. The overall results of this study revealed that the annual streamflow of the UCRB is significantly influenced by predefine climate modes and the proposed SVM modeling technique incorporating oceanic-atmospheric oscillations is expected to be useful to water managers in the long-term management of the water resources within the UCRB.

Cost-effectiveness of the streamflow-gaging program in Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Druse, S.A.; Wahl, K.L.

1988-01-01

This report documents the results of a cost-effectiveness study of the streamflow-gaging program in Wyoming. Regression analysis or hydrologic flow-routing techniques were considered for 24 combinations of stations from a 139-station network operated in 1984 to investigate suitability of techniques for simulating streamflow records. Only one station was determined to have sufficient accuracy in the regression analysis to consider discontinuance of the gage. The evaluation of the gaging-station network, which included the use of associated uncertainty in streamflow records, is limited to the nonwinter operation of the 47 stations operated by the Riverton Field Office of the U.S. Geological Survey. The current (1987) travel routes and measurement frequencies require a budget of $264,000 and result in an average standard error in streamflow records of 13.2%. Changes in routes and station visits using the same budget, could optimally reduce the standard error by 1.6%. Budgets evaluated ranged from $235,000 to $400,000. A $235,000 budget increased the optimal average standard error/station from 11.6 to 15.5%, and a $400,000 budget could reduce it to 6.6%. For all budgets considered, lost record accounts for about 40% of the average standard error. (USGS)

Elevated streamflows increase dam passage by juvenile coho salmon during winter: Implications of climate change in the Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kock, Tobias J.; Liedtke, Theresa L.; Rondorf, Dennis W.; Serl, John D.; Kohn, Mike; Bumbaco, Karin A.

2012-01-01

A 4-year evaluation was conducted to determine the proportion of juvenile coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch passing Cowlitz Falls Dam, on the Cowlitz River, Washington, during winter. River and reservoir populations of coho salmon parr were monitored using radiotelemetry to determine if streamflow increases resulted in increased downstream movement and dam passage. This was of interest because fish that pass downstream of Cowlitz Falls Dam become landlocked in Riffe Lake and are lost to the anadromous population. Higher proportions of reservoir-released fish (0.391-0.480) passed Cowlitz Falls Dam than did river-released fish (0.037-0.119). Event-time analyses demonstrated that streamflow increases were important predictors of dam passage rates during the study. The estimated effect of increasing streamflows on the risk of dam passage varied annually and ranged from 9% to 75% for every 28.3 m3/s increase in streamflow. These results have current management implications because they demonstrate the significance of dam passage by juvenile coho salmon during winter months when juvenile fish collection facilities are typically not operating. The results also have future management implications because climate change predictions suggest that peak streamflow timing for many watersheds in the Pacific Northwest will shift from late spring and early summer to winter. Increased occurrence of intense winter flood events is also expected. Our results demonstrate that juvenile coho salmon respond readily to streamflow increases and initiate downstream movements during winter months, which could result in increased passage at dams during these periods if climate change predictions are realized in the coming decades.

Understanding the hydrologic consequences of timber-harvest and roading: four decades of streamflow and sediment results from the Caspar Creek experimental watersheds

Treesearch

Elizabeth Keppeler; Jack Lewis

2007-01-01

The Caspar Creek Experimental Watersheds were established in 1962 to study the effects of forest management on streamflow, sedimentation, and erosion in the rainfall-dominated, forested watersheds of north coastal California. Currently, 21 stream sites are gaged in the North Fork (473 ha) and South Fork (424 ha) of Caspar Creek. From 1971 to 1973, 65% of the timber...

Monthly streamflow forecasting based on hidden Markov model and Gaussian Mixture Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yongqi; Ye, Lei; Qin, Hui; Hong, Xiaofeng; Ye, Jiajun; Yin, Xingli

2018-06-01

Reliable streamflow forecasts can be highly valuable for water resources planning and management. In this study, we combined a hidden Markov model (HMM) and Gaussian Mixture Regression (GMR) for probabilistic monthly streamflow forecasting. The HMM is initialized using a kernelized K-medoids clustering method, and the Baum-Welch algorithm is then executed to learn the model parameters. GMR derives a conditional probability distribution for the predictand given covariate information, including the antecedent flow at a local station and two surrounding stations. The performance of HMM-GMR was verified based on the mean square error and continuous ranked probability score skill scores. The reliability of the forecasts was assessed by examining the uniformity of the probability integral transform values. The results show that HMM-GMR obtained reasonably high skill scores and the uncertainty spread was appropriate. Different HMM states were assumed to be different climate conditions, which would lead to different types of observed values. We demonstrated that the HMM-GMR approach can handle multimodal and heteroscedastic data.

A precipitation-runoff model for analysis of the effects of water withdrawals on streamflow, Ipswich River basin, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zarriello, Phillip J.; Ries, Kernell G.

2000-01-01

Water withdrawals from the 155-square-mile Ipswich River Basin in northeastern Massachusetts affect aquatic habitat, water quality, and recreational use of the river. To better understand the effects of these withdrawals on streamflow, particularly low flow, the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) was used to develop a watershed-scale precipitation-runoff model of the Ipswich River to simulate its hydrology and complex water-use patterns.An analytical solution was used to compute time series of streamflow depletions resulting from ground-water withdrawals at wells. The flow depletions caused by pumping from the wells were summed along with any surface-water withdrawals to calculate the total withdrawal along a stream reach. The water withdrawals, records of precipitation, and streamflow records on the Ipswich River at South Middleton and at Ipswich for the period 1989?93 were used to calibrate the model. Model-fit analysis indicates that the simulated flows matched observed flows over a wide range of conditions; at a minimum, the coefficient of model-fit efficiency indicates that the model explained 79 percent of the variance in the observed daily flow.Six alternative water-withdrawal and land-use scenarios were simulated with the model. Three scenarios were examined for the 1989?93 calibration period, and three scenarios were examined for the 1961?95 period to test alternative withdrawals and land use over a wider range of climatic conditions, and to compute 1-, 7-, and 30-day low-flow frequencies using a log-Pearson Type III analysis. Flow-duration curves computed from results of the 1989?93 simulations indicate that, at the South Middleton and Ipswich gaging stations, streamflows when no water withdrawals are being made are nearly identical to streamflows when no ground-water withdrawals are made. Streamflow under no water withdrawals at both stations are about an order of magnitude larger at the 99.8 percent exceedence probability than simulations with only ground-water withdrawals. Long-term simulations indicate that the differences between streamflow with no water withdrawals and average 1989?93 water withdrawals is similar to the difference between simulations for the same water-use conditions made for the 1989?93 period at both sites. The 7-day, 10-year low-flow (7Q10, a widely used regulatory statistic) at the South Middleton station was 4.1 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) with no water withdrawals and 1991 land use, 5.8 ft3/s no withdrawals and undeveloped land, and 0.54 ft3/s with average 1989?93 water withdrawals and 1991 land use. The 7Q10 at the Ipswich station was about 8.3 ft3/s for simulations with no water withdrawals for both the 1991 land use and the undeveloped land conditions, and 2.7 ft3/s for simulations with average 1989?93 water withdrawals and 1991 land use. Simulation results indicate that surface-water withdrawals have little effect on the duration and frequency of low flows, but the cumulative ground-water withdrawals substantially decrease low flows.

Partitioning uncertainty in streamflow projections under nonstationary model conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, P. P.

2018-02-01

Assessing the impacts of Land Use (LU) and climate change on future streamflow projections is necessary for efficient management of water resources. However, model projections are burdened with significant uncertainty arising from various sources. Most of the previous studies have considered climate models and scenarios as major sources of uncertainty, but uncertainties introduced by land use change and hydrologic model assumptions are rarely investigated. In this paper an attempt is made to segregate the contribution from (i) general circulation models (GCMs), (ii) emission scenarios, (iii) land use scenarios, (iv) stationarity assumption of the hydrologic model, and (v) internal variability of the processes, to overall uncertainty in streamflow projections using analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach. Generally, most of the impact assessment studies are carried out with unchanging hydrologic model parameters in future. It is, however, necessary to address the nonstationarity in model parameters with changing land use and climate. In this paper, a regression based methodology is presented to obtain the hydrologic model parameters with changing land use and climate scenarios in future. The Upper Ganga Basin (UGB) in India is used as a case study to demonstrate the methodology. The semi-distributed Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is set-up over the basin, under nonstationary conditions. Results indicate that model parameters vary with time, thereby invalidating the often-used assumption of model stationarity. The streamflow in UGB under the nonstationary model condition is found to reduce in future. The flows are also found to be sensitive to changes in land use. Segregation results suggest that model stationarity assumption and GCMs along with their interactions with emission scenarios, act as dominant sources of uncertainty. This paper provides a generalized framework for hydrologists to examine stationarity assumption of models before considering them for future streamflow projections and segregate the contribution of various sources to the uncertainty.

Evaluation of model-based seasonal streamflow and water allocation forecasts for the Elqui Valley, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delorit, Justin; Cristian Gonzalez Ortuya, Edmundo; Block, Paul

2017-09-01

In many semi-arid regions, multisectoral demands often stress available water supplies. Such is the case in the Elqui River valley of northern Chile, which draws on a limited-capacity reservoir to allocate 25 000 water rights. Delayed infrastructure investment forces water managers to address demand-based allocation strategies, particularly in dry years, which are realized through reductions in the volume associated with each water right. Skillful season-ahead streamflow forecasts have the potential to inform managers with an indication of future conditions to guide reservoir allocations. This work evaluates season-ahead statistical prediction models of October-January (growing season) streamflow at multiple lead times associated with manager and user decision points, and links predictions with a reservoir allocation tool. Skillful results (streamflow forecasts outperform climatology) are produced for short lead times (1 September: ranked probability skill score (RPSS) of 0.31, categorical hit skill score of 61 %). At longer lead times, climatological skill exceeds forecast skill due to fewer observations of precipitation. However, coupling the 1 September statistical forecast model with a sea surface temperature phase and strength statistical model allows for equally skillful categorical streamflow forecasts to be produced for a 1 May lead, triggered for 60 % of years (1950-2015), suggesting forecasts need not be strictly deterministic to be useful for water rights holders. An early (1 May) categorical indication of expected conditions is reinforced with a deterministic forecast (1 September) as more observations of local variables become available. The reservoir allocation model is skillful at the 1 September lead (categorical hit skill score of 53 %); skill improves to 79 % when categorical allocation prediction certainty exceeds 80 %. This result implies that allocation efficiency may improve when forecasts are integrated into reservoir decision frameworks. The methods applied here advance the understanding of the mechanisms and timing responsible for moisture transport to the Elqui Valley and provide a unique application of streamflow forecasting in the prediction of water right allocations.

Monthly streamflow forecasting in the Rhine basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schick, Simon; Rössler, Ole; Weingartner, Rolf

2017-04-01

Forecasting seasonal streamflow of the Rhine river is of societal relevance as the Rhine is an important water way and water resource in Western Europe. The present study investigates the predictability of monthly mean streamflow at lead times of zero, one, and two months with the focus on potential benefits by the integration of seasonal climate predictions. Specifically, we use seasonal predictions of precipitation and surface air temperature released by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for a regression analysis. In order to disentangle forecast uncertainty, the 'Reverse Ensemble Streamflow Prediction' framework is adapted here to the context of regression: By using appropriate subsets of predictors the regression model is constrained to either the initial conditions, the meteorological forcing, or both. An operational application is mimicked by equipping the model with the seasonal climate predictions provided by ECMWF. Finally, to mitigate the spatial aggregation of the meteorological fields the model is also applied at the subcatchment scale, and the resulting predictions are combined afterwards. The hindcast experiment is carried out for the period 1982-2011 in cross validation mode at two gauging stations, namely the Rhine at Lobith and Basel. The results show that monthly forecasts are skillful with respect to climatology only at zero lead time. In addition, at zero lead time the integration of seasonal climate predictions decreases the mean absolute error by 5 to 10 percentage compared to forecasts which are solely based on initial conditions. This reduction most likely is induced by the seasonal prediction of precipitation and not air temperature. The study is completed by bench marking the regression model with runoff simulations from ECMWFs seasonal forecast system. By simply using basin averages followed by a linear bias correction, these runoff simulations translate well to monthly streamflow. Though the regression model is only slightly outperformed, we argue that runoff out of the land surface component of seasonal climate forecasting systems is an interesting option when it comes to seasonal streamflow forecasting in large river basins.

Nine Hundred Years of Weekly Streamflows: Stochastic Downscaling of Ensemble Tree-Ring Reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sauchyn, David; Ilich, Nesa

2017-11-01

We combined the methods and advantages of stochastic hydrology and paleohydrology to estimate 900 years of weekly flows for the North and South Saskatchewan Rivers at Edmonton and Medicine Hat, Alberta, respectively. Regression models of water-year streamflow were constructed using historical naturalized flow data and a pool of 196 tree-ring (earlywood, latewood, and annual) ring-width chronologies from 76 sites. The tree-ring models accounted for up to 80% of the interannual variability in historical naturalized flows. We developed a new algorithm for generating stochastic time series of weekly flows constrained by the statistical properties of both the historical record and proxy streamflow data, and by the necessary condition that weekly flows correlate between the end of a year and the start of the next. A second innovation, enabled by the density of our tree-ring network, is to derive the paleohydrology from an ensemble of 100 statistically significant reconstructions at each gauge. Using paleoclimatic data to generate long series of weekly flow estimates augments the short historical record with an expanded range of hydrologic variability, including sequences of wet and dry years of greater length and severity. This unique hydrometric time series will enable evaluation of the reliability of current water supply and management systems given the range of hydroclimatic variability and extremes contained in the stochastic paleohydrology. It also could inform evaluation of the uncertainty in climate model projections, given that internal hydroclimatic variability is the dominant source of uncertainty.

Trade-offs Between Socio-economic Development and Ecosystem Health under Changing Water Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazemi, A.; Hassanzadeh, E.; Elshorbagy, A. A.; Wheater, H. S.; Gober, P.; Jardine, T.; Lindenschmidt, K. E.

2017-12-01

Natural and human water systems at regional scales are often developed around key characteristics of streamflow. As a result, changes in streamflow regime can affect both socio-economic activities and freshwater ecosystems. In addition to natural variability and/or climate change, extensive water resource management to support socio-economic growth has also changed streamflow regimes. This study aims at understanding the trade-offs between agricultural expansion in the province of Saskatchewan, Canada, and alterations in the ecohydrological characteristics of the Saskatchewan River Delta (SRD) located downstream. Changes in climate along with extensive water resource management have altered the upstream flow regime. Moreover, Saskatchewan is investigating the possible expansion of irrigated agriculture to boost the provincial economy. To evaluate trade-offs across a range of possible scenarios for streamflow changes, the potential increase in provincial net benefit versus potential vulnerability of the SRD was assessed using perturbed flow realizations along with scenarios of irrigation expansion as input to an integrated water resource system model. This study sheds light on the potential variability in trade-offs between economic benefits and ecosystem health under a range of streamflow conditions, with the aim of informing decisions that can benefit both natural and human water systems.

Land Use Change Increases Streamflow Across the Arc of Deforestation in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levy, M. C.; Lopes, A. V.; Cohn, A.; Larsen, L. G.; Thompson, S. E.

2018-04-01

Nearly half of recent decades' global forest loss occurred in the Amazon and Cerrado (tropical savanna) biomes of Brazil, known as the arc of deforestation. Despite prior analysis in individual river basins, a generalizable empirical understanding of the effect of deforestation on streamflow across this region is lacking. We frame land use change in Brazil as a natural experiment and draw on in situ and remote sensing evidence in 324 river basins covering more than 3 × 106 km2 to estimate streamflow changes caused by deforestation and agricultural development between 1950 and 2013. Deforestation increased dry season low flow by between 4 and 10 percentage points (relative to the forested condition), corresponding to a regional- and time-averaged rate of increase in specific streamflow of 1.29 mm/year2, equivalent to a 4.08 km3/year2 increase, assuming a stationary climate. In conjunction with rainfall and temperature variations, the net (observed) average increase in streamflow over the same period was 0.76 mm/year2, or 2.41 km3/year2. Thus, net increases in regional streamflow in the past half century are 58% of those that would have been experienced with deforestation given a stationary climate. This study uses a causal empirical analysis approach novel to the water sciences to verify the regional applicability of prior basin-scale studies, provides a proof of concept for the use of observational causal identification methods in the water sciences, and demonstrates that deforestation masks the streamflow-reducing effects of climate change in this region.

Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naz, Bibi S.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Gao, Huilin; Rastogi, Deeksha; Gangrade, Sudershan

2018-01-01

The magnitude and frequency of hydrometeorological extremes are expected to increase in the conterminous United States (CONUS) over the rest of this century, and their increase will significantly impact water resource management. In this study, we evaluated the large-scale climate change effects on extreme hydrological events and their implications for reservoir inflows in 138 headwater subbasins located upstream of reservoirs across CONUS using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC model was forced with a 10-member ensemble of global circulation models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24° grid cell resolution. Four commonly used indices, including mean annual flow, annual center timing, 100-year daily high streamflow, and 10-year 7-day average low streamflow were used for evaluation. The results projected an increase in the high streamflow by 44% for a majority of subbasins upstream of flood control reservoirs in the central United States (US) and a decrease in the low streamflow by 11% for subbasins upstream of hydropower reservoirs across the western US. In the eastern US, frequencies of both high and low streamflow were projected to increase in the majority of subbasins upstream of both hydropower and flood control reservoirs. Increased frequencies of both high and low streamflow events can potentially make reservoirs across CONUS more vulnerable to future climate conditions. This study estimates reservoir inflow changes over the next several decades, which can be used to optimize water supply management downstream.

Spatiotemporal impacts of LULC changes on hydrology from the perspective of runoff generation mechanism using SWAT model with evolving parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Chang, J.; Luo, L.

2017-12-01

It is of great importance for water resources management to model the truly hydrological process under changing environment, especially under significant changes of underlying surfaces like the Wei River Bain (WRB) where the subsurface hydrology is highly influenced by human activities, and to systematically investigate the interactions among LULC change, streamflow variation and changes in runoff generation process. Therefore, we proposed the idea of evolving parameters in hydrological model (SWAT) to reflect the changes in physical environment with different LULC conditions. Then with these evolving parameters, the spatiotemporal impacts of LULC changes on streamflow were quantified, and qualitative analysis was conducted to further explore how LULC changes affect the streamflow from the perspective of runoff generation mechanism. Results indicate the following: 1) evolving parameter calibration is not only effective but necessary to ensure the validity of the model when dealing with significant changes in underlying surfaces due to human activities. 2) compared to the baseline period, the streamflow in wet seasons increased in the 1990s but decreased in the 2000s. While at yearly and dry seasonal scales, the streamflow decreased in both two decades; 3) the expansion of cropland is the major contributor to the reduction of surface water component, thus causing the decline in streamflow at yearly and dry seasonal scales. While compared to the 1990s, the expansions of woodland in the middle stream and grassland in the downstream are the main stressors that increased the soil water component, thus leading to the more decline of the streamflow in the 2000s.

New methods in hydrologic modeling and decision support for culvert flood risk under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosner, A.; Letcher, B. H.; Vogel, R. M.; Rees, P. S.

2015-12-01

Assessing culvert flood vulnerability under climate change poses an unusual combination of challenges. We seek a robust method of planning for an uncertain future, and therefore must consider a wide range of plausible future conditions. Culverts in our case study area, northwestern Massachusetts, USA, are predominantly found in small, ungaged basins. The need to predict flows both at numerous sites and under numerous plausible climate conditions requires a statistical model with low data and computational requirements. We present a statistical streamflow model that is driven by precipitation and temperature, allowing us to predict flows without reliance on reference gages of observed flows. The hydrological analysis is used to determine each culvert's risk of failure under current conditions. We also explore the hydrological response to a range of plausible future climate conditions. These results are used to determine the tolerance of each culvert to future increases in precipitation. In a decision support context, current flood risk as well as tolerance to potential climate changes are used to provide a robust assessment and prioritization for culvert replacements.

Hydrologic Conditions that Influence Streamflow Losses in a Karst Region of the Upper Peace River, Polk County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Metz, P.A.; Lewelling, B.R.

2009-01-01

The upper Peace River from Bartow to Fort Meade, Florida, is described as a groundwater recharge area, reflecting a reversal from historical groundwater discharge patterns that existed prior to the 1950s. The upper Peace River channel and floodplain are characterized by extensive karst development, with numerous fractures, crevasses, and sinks that have been eroded in the near-surface and underlying carbonate bedrock. With the reversal in groundwater head gradients, river water is lost to the underlying groundwater system through these karst features. An investigation was conducted to evaluate the hydrologic conditions that influence streamflow losses in the karst region of the upper Peace River. The upper Peace River is located in a basin that has been altered substantially by phosphate mining and increases in groundwater use. These alterations have changed groundwater flow patterns and caused streamflow declines through time. Hydrologic factors that have had the greatest influence on streamflow declines in the upper Peace River include the lowering of the potentiometric surfaces of the intermediate aquifer system and Upper Floridan aquifer beneath the riverbed elevation due to below-average rainfall (droughts), increases in groundwater use, and the presence of numerous karst features in the low-water channel and floodplain that enhance the loss of streamflow. Seepage runs conducted along the upper Peace River, from Bartow to Fort Meade, indicate that the greatest streamflow losses occurred along an approximate 2-mile section of the river beginning about 1 mile south of the Peace River at Bartow gaging station. Along the low-water and floodplain channel of this 2-mile section, there are about 10 prominent karst features that influence streamflow losses. Losses from the individual karst features ranged from 0.22 to 16 cubic feet per second based on measurements made between 2002 and 2007. The largest measured flow loss for all the karst features was about 50 cubic feet per second, or about 32 million gallons per day, on June 28, 2002. Streamflow losses varied throughout the year, and were related to seasonal fluctuations in groundwater levels. When groundwater levels were at their lowest level at the end of the dry season (May and June), there was an increased potential for streamflow losses. During this study, the largest streamflow losses occurred at the beginning of the summer rainy season when discharge in the river increased and large volumes of water were needed to replenish unfilled cavities and void spaces in the underlying aquifers. The underlying geology along the upper Peace River and floodplain is highly karstified, and aids in the movement and amount of streamflow that is lost to the groundwater system in this region. Numerous karst features and fractured carbonates and cavernous zones observed in geologic cores and geophysical logs indicate an active, well-connected, groundwater flow system. Aquifer and dye tests conducted along the upper Peace River indicate the presence of cavernous and highly transmissive layers within the floodplain area that can store and transport large volumes of water in underground cavities. A discharge measurement made during this study indicates that the cavernous system associated with Dover Sink can accept over 10 million gallons per day (16 cubic feet per second) of streamflow before the localized aquifer storage volume is replenished and the level of the sink is stabilized.

Simulation of groundwater and surface-water resources and evaluation of water-management alternatives for the Chamokane Creek basin, Stevens County, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ely, D. Matthew; Kahle, Sue C.

2012-01-01

A three-dimensional, transient numerical model of groundwater and surface-water flow was constructed for Chamokane Creek basin to better understand the groundwater-flow system and its relation to surface-water resources. The model described in this report can be used as a tool by water-management agencies and other stakeholders to quantitatively evaluate the effects of potential increases in groundwater pumping on groundwater and surface-water resources in the basin. The Chamokane Creek model was constructed using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) integrated model, GSFLOW. GSFLOW was developed to simulate coupled groundwater and surface-water resources. The model uses 1,000-foot grid cells that subdivide the model domain by 102 rows and 106 columns. Six hydrogeologic units in the model are represented using eight model layers. Daily precipitation and temperature were spatially distributed and subsequent groundwater recharge was computed within GSFLOW. Streamflows in Chamokane Creek and its major tributaries are simulated in the model by routing streamflow within a stream network that is coupled to the groundwater-flow system. Groundwater pumpage and surface-water diversions and returns specified in the model were derived from monthly and annual pumpage values previously estimated from another component of this study and new data reported by study partners. The model simulation period is water years 1980-2010 (October 1, 1979, to September 30, 2010), but the model was calibrated to the transient conditions for water years 1999-2010 (October 1, 1998, to September 30, 2010). Calibration was completed by using traditional trial-and-error methods and automated parameter-estimation techniques. The model adequately reproduces the measured time-series groundwater levels and daily streamflows. At well observation points, the mean difference between simulated and measured hydraulic heads is 7 feet with a root-mean-square error divided by the total difference in water levels of 4.7 percent. Simulated streamflow was compared to measured streamflow at the USGS streamflow-gaging station-Chamokane Creek below Falls, near Long Lake (12433200). Annual differences between measured and simulated streamflow for the site ranged from -63 to 22 percent. Calibrated model output includes a 31-year estimate of monthly water budget components for the hydrologic system. Five model applications (scenarios) were completed to obtain a better understanding of the relation between groundwater pumping and surface-water resources. The calibrated transient model was used to evaluate: (1) the connection between the upper- and middle-basin groundwater systems, (2) the effect of surface-water and groundwater uses in the middle basin, (3) the cumulative impacts of claims registry use and permit-exempt wells on Chamokane Creek streamflow, (4) the frequency of regulation due to impacted streamflow, and (5) the levels of domestic and stockwater use that can be regulated. The simulation results indicated that streamflow is affected by existing groundwater pumping in the upper and middle basins. Simulated water-management scenarios show streamflow increased relative to historical conditions as groundwater and surface-water withdrawals decreased.

Evaluation of selected methods for determining streamflow during periods of ice effect

USGS Publications Warehouse

Melcher, N.B.; Walker, J.F.

1990-01-01

The methods are classified into two general categories, subjective and analytical, depending on whether individual judgement is necessary for method application. On the basis of results of the evaluation for the three Iowa stations, two of the subjective methods (discharge ratio and hydrographic-and-climatic comparison) were more accurate than the other subjective methods, and approximately as accurate as the best analytical method. Three of the analytical methods (index velocity, adjusted rating curve, and uniform flow) could potentially be used for streamflow-gaging stations where the need for accurate ice-affected discharge estimates justifies the expense of collecting additional field data. One analytical method (ice adjustment factor) may be appropriate for use for stations with extremely stable stage-discharge ratings and measuring sections. Further research is needed to refine the analytical methods. The discharge ratio and multiple regression methods produce estimates of streamflow for varying ice conditions using information obtained from the existing U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging network.

Analysis of trends in climate, streamflow, and stream temperature in north coastal California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madej, Mary Ann; Medley, C. Nicholas; Patterson, Glenn; Parker, Melanie J.

2011-01-01

As part of a broader project analyzing trends in climate, streamflow, vegetation, salmon, and ocean conditions in northern California national park units, we compiled average monthly air temperature and precipitation data from 73 climate stations, streamflow data from 21 river gaging stations, and limited stream temperature data from salmon-bearing rivers in north coastal California. Many climate stations show a statistically significant increase in both average maximum and average minimum air temperature in early fall and midwinter during the last century. Concurrently, average September precipitation has decreased. In many coastal rivers, summer low flow has decreased and summer stream temperatures have increased, which affects summer rearing habitat for salmonids. Nevertheless, because vegetative cover has also changed during this time period, we cannot ascribe streamflow changes to climate change without first assessing water budgets. Although shifts in the timing of the centroid of runoff have been documented in snowmelt-dominated watersheds in the western United States, this was not the case in lower elevation coastal rivers analyzed in this study.

Past and future changes in streamflow in the U.S. Midwest: Bridging across time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villarini, G.; Slater, L. J.; Salvi, K. A.

2017-12-01

Streamflows have increased notably across the U.S. Midwest over the past century, principally due to changes in precipitation and land use / land cover. Improving our understanding of the physical drivers that are responsible for the observed changes in discharge may enhance our capability of predicting and projecting these changes, and may have large implications for water resources management over this area. This study will highlight our efforts towards the statistical attribution of changes in discharge across the U.S. Midwest, with analyses performed at the seasonal scale from low to high flows. The main drivers of changing streamflows that we focus on are: urbanization, agricultural land cover, basin-averaged temperature, basin-averaged precipitation, and antecedent soil moisture. Building on the insights from this attribution, we will examine the potential predictability of streamflow across different time scales, with lead times ranging from seasonal to decadal, and discuss a potential path forward for engineering design for future conditions.

Geomorphic floodplain with organic matter (biomass) estimates for Fanno Creek, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sobieszczyk, Steven

2011-01-01

Fanno Creek is a tributary to the Tualatin River and flows though parts of the southwest Portland metropolitan area. The stream is heavily influenced by urban runoff and shows characteristic flashy streamflow and poor water quality commonly associated with urban streams. This data set represents the geomorphic floodplain as derived from light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data and aerial photographic imagery. The floodplain represents current conditions including both anthropogenic alterations and natural historic floodplain features. The floodplain dataset is divided into 13 reach segments and attributed with corresponding organic material load estimates for each reach.

Basin-scale simulation of current and potential climate changed hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin, United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christiansen, Daniel E.; Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.

2014-01-01

The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) is the largest public investment in the Great Lakes in two decades. A task force of 11 Federal agencies developed an action plan to implement the initiative. The U.S. Department of the Interior was one of the 11 agencies that entered into an interagency agreement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as part of the GLRI to complete scientific projects throughout the Great Lakes basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, a bureau within the Department of the Interior, is involved in the GLRI to provide scientific support to management decisions as well as measure progress of the Great Lakes basin restoration efforts. This report presents basin-scale simulated current and forecast climatic and hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin. The forecasts were obtained by constructing and calibrating a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model of the Lake Michigan Basin; the PRMS model was calibrated using the parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis (PEST) software suite. The calibrated model was used to evaluate potential responses to climate change by using four simulated carbon emission scenarios from eight general circulation models released by the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3. Statistically downscaled datasets of these scenarios were used to project hydrologic response for the Lake Michigan Basin. In general, most of the observation sites in the Lake Michigan Basin indicated slight increases in annual streamflow in response to future climate change scenarios. Monthly streamflows indicated a general shift from the current (2014) winter-storage/snowmelt-pulse system to a system with a more equally distributed hydrograph throughout the year. Simulated soil moisture within the basin illustrates that conditions within the basin are also expected to change on a monthly timescale. One effect of increasing air temperature as a result of the changing climate was the appreciable increase in the length of the growing season in the Lake Michigan Basin. The increase in growing season will cause an increase in evapotranspiration across the Lake Michigan Basin, which will directly affect soil moisture and late growing season streamflows. Output from the Lake Michigan Basin PRMS model is available through an online dynamic web mapping service available at (http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2014/5175/). The map service includes layers for the each of the 8 global climate models and 4 carbon emission scenarios combinations for 12 hydrologic model state variables. The layers are pre-rendered maps of annual hydrologic response from 1977 through 2099 that provide an easily accessible online method to examine climate change effects across the Lake Michigan Basin.

Bringing Water into an Integrated Assessment Framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Thomson, Allison M.; Sands, Ronald

We developed a modeling capability to understand how water is allocated within a river basin and examined present and future water allocations among agriculture, energy production, other human requirements, and ecological needs. Water is an essential natural resource needed for food and fiber production, household and industrial uses, energy production, transportation, tourism and recreation, and the functioning of natural ecosystems. Anthropogenic climate change and population growth are anticipated to impose unprecedented pressure on water resources during this century. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) researchers have pioneered the development of integrated assessment (IA) models for the analysis of energy and economicmore » systems under conditions of climate change. This Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) effort led to the development of a modeling capability to evaluate current and future water allocations between human requirements and ecosystem services. The Water Prototype Model (WPM) was built in STELLA®, a computer modeling package with a powerful interface that enables users to construct dynamic models to simulate and integrate many processes (biological, hydrological, economics, sociological). A 150,404-km2 basin in the United States (U.S.) Pacific Northwest region served as the platform for the development of the WPM. About 60% of the study basin is in the state of Washington with the rest in Oregon. The Columbia River runs through the basin for 874 km, starting at the international border with Canada and ending (for the purpose of the simulation) at The Dalles dam. Water enters the basin through precipitation and from streamflows originating from the Columbia River at the international border with Canada, the Spokane River, and the Snake River. Water leaves the basin through evapotranspiration, consumptive uses (irrigation, livestock, domestic, commercial, mining, industrial, and off-stream power generation), and streamflow through The Dalles dam. Water also enters the Columbia River via runoff from land. The model runs on a monthly timescale to account for the impact of seasonal variations of climate, streamflows, and water uses. Data for the model prototype were obtained from national databases and ecosystem model results. The WPM can be run from three sources: 1) directly from STELLA, 2) with the isee Player®, or 3) the web version of WPM constructed with NetSim® software. When running any of these three versions, the user is presented a screen with a series of buttons, graphs, and a table. Two of the buttons provide the user with background and instructions on how to run the model. Currently, there are five types of scenarios that can be manipulated alone or in combination using the Sliding Input Devices: 1) interannual variability (e.g., El Niño), 2) climate change, 3) salmon policy, 4) future population, and 5) biodiesel production. Overall, the WPM captured the effects of streamflow conditions on hydropower production. Under La Niña conditions, more hydropower is available during all months of the year, with a substantially higher availability during spring and summer. Under El Niño conditions, hydropower would be reduced, with a total decline of 15% from normal weather conditions over the year. A policy of flow augmentation to facilitate the spring migration of smolts to the ocean would also reduce hydropower supply. Modeled hydropower generation was 23% greater than the 81 TWh reported in the 1995 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) database. The modeling capability presented here contains the essential features to conduct basin-scale analyses of water allocation under current and future climates. Due to its underlying data structure iv and conceptual foundation, the WPM should be appropriate to conduct IA modeling at national and global scales.« less

Streamflow losses in the Black Hills of western South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hortness, Jon E.; Driscoll, Daniel G.

1998-01-01

Losses occur in numerous streams that cross outcrops of various sedimentary rocks that are exposed around the periphery of the Black Hills of South Dakota. These streamflow losses are recognized as an important source of local recharge to regional bedrock aquifers. Most streams lose all of their flow up to some threshold rate. Streamflow is maintained through a loss zone when the threshold is exceeded. Streamflow records for 86 measurement sites are used to determine bedrock loss thresholds for 24 area streams, which have individual loss thresholds that range from negligible (no loss) to as much as 50 cubic feet per second. In addition, insights are provided regarding springflow that occurs in the immediate vicinity of selected loss zones. Most losses occur to outcrops of the Madison Limestone and Minnelusa Formation. Losses to the Deadwood Formation probably are minimal. Losses to the Minnekahta Limestone generally are small; however, they are difficult to quantify because of potential losses to extensive alluvial deposits that commonly are located near Minnekahta outcrops. Loss thresholds for each stream are shown to be relatively constant, without measurable effects from streamflow rates or duration of flow through the loss zones. Calculated losses for measurements made during high-flow conditions generally have larger variability than calculated losses for low-flow conditions; however, consistent relations between losses and streamflow have not been identified. Some of this variability results from the inability to account for tributary inflows and changes in storage. Calculated losses are shown to decrease, in some cases, during periods of extended flow through loss zones. Decreased 'net' losses, however, generally can be attributed to springflow (ground-water discharge) within a loss zone, which may occur during prolonged periods of wet climatic conditions. Losses to unsaturated alluvial deposits located adjacent to the stream channels are found to have significant effects on determination of bedrock losses. Large losses occur in filling initial storage in unsaturated alluvial deposits downstream from loss zones, when bedrock loss thresholds are first exceeded. Losses to alluvial deposits in the range of tens of cubic feet per second and alluvial storage capacities in the range of hundreds of acre-feet are documented. Significant changes in loss thresholds for Grace Coolidge Creek, Spring Creek, and Whitewood Creek are documented. Introduction of large quantities of fine-grained sediments into these stream channels may have affected loss thresholds for various periods of time.

Changes in streamflow characteristics in Wisconsin as related to precipitation and land use

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gebert, Warren A.; Garn, Herbert S.; Rose, William J.

2016-01-19

Streamflow characteristics were determined for 15 longterm streamflow-gaging stations for the periods 1915–2008, 1915–68, and 1969–2008 to identify trends. Stations selected represent flow characteristics for the major river basins in Wisconsin. Trends were statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence level at 13 of the 15 streamflow-gaging stations for various streamflow characteristics for 1915–2008. Most trends indicated increases in low flows for streams with agriculture as the dominant land use. The three most important findings are: increases in low flows and average flows in agricultural watersheds, decreases in flood peak discharge for many streams in both agricultural and forested watersheds, and climatic change occurred with increasing annual precipitation and changes in monthly occurrence of precipitation. When the 1915–68 period is compared to the 1969–2008 period, the annual 7-day low flow increased an average of 60 percent for nine streams in agricultural areas as compared to a 15 percent increase for the five forested streams. Average annual flow for the same periods increased 23 percent for the agriculture streams and 0.6 percent for the forested streams. The annual flood peak discharge for the same periods decreased 15 percent for agriculture streams and 8 percent for forested streams. The largest increase in the annual 7-day low flow was 117 percent, the largest increase in annual average flow was 41 percent, and the largest decrease in annual peak discharge was 51 percent. The trends in streamflow characteristics affect frequency characteristics, which are used for a variety of design and compliance purposes. The frequencies for the 1969–2008 period were compared to frequencies for the 1915–68 period. The 7-day, 10-year (Q7, 10) low flow increased 91 percent for nine agricultural streams, while the five forested streams had an increase of 18 percent. The 100-year flood peak discharge decreased an average of 15 percent for streams in the agriculture area and 27 percent for streams in the forested area. Increases in low flow for agriculture streams are attributed to changes in agricultural practices and land use as well as increased precipitation. The decrease in annual flood peak discharge with increased annual precipitation is less clear, but is attributed to increased infiltration from changes in agricultural practices and climatic changes. For future low-flow studies, the 1969–2008 period should be used to determine low-flow characteristics since it represents current (2014) conditions and was generally free of significant trends.

Water Quality and Biological Characteristics of the Middle Fork of the Saline River, Arkansas, 2003-06

USGS Publications Warehouse

Galloway, Joel M.; Petersen, James C.; Shelby, Erica L.; Wise, Jim A.

2008-01-01

The Middle Fork of the Saline River has many qualities that have been recognized by State and Federal agencies. The Middle Fork provides habitat for several rare aquatic species and is part of a larger stream system (the Upper Saline River) that is known for relatively high levels of species richness and relatively high numbers of species of concern. Water-quality samples were collected and streamflow was measured by the U.S. Geological Survey at three sites in the Middle Fork Basin between October 2003 and October 2006. The Arkansas Department of Environmental Quality collected discrete synoptic water-quality samples from eight sites between January 2004 and October 2006. The Arkansas Department of Environmental Quality also sampled fish (September-October 2003) and benthic macroinvertebrate communities (September 2003-December 2005) at five sites. Streamflow varied annually among the three streamflow sites from October 2003 to October 2006. The mean annual streamflow for Brushy Creek near Jessieville (MFS06) was 0.72 cubic meters per second for water years 2004-2006. The Middle Fork below Jessieville (MFS05) had a mean annual streamflow of 1.11 cubic meters per second for water years 2004-2006. The Middle Fork near Owensville (MFS02), the most downstream site, had a mean annual streamflow of 3.01 cubic meters per second. The greatest streamflows at the three sites generally occurred in the winter and spring and the least in the summer. Nutrient dynamics in the Middle Fork are controlled by activities in the basin and processes that occur in the stream. Point sources and nonpoint sources of nutrients occur in the Middle Fork Basin that could affect the water-quality. Nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations generally were greatest in Mill Creek (MFS04E) and in the Middle Fork immediately downstream from the confluence with Mill Creek (MFS04) with decreasing concentrations at sites farther downstream in Middle Fork. The site in Mill Creek is located downstream from a wastewater-treatment plant discharge and concentrations at sites farther downstream probably had lesser concentrations because of dilution effects and from algal uptake. Nutrient concentrations generally were significantly greater during high-flow conditions compared to base-flow conditions. Flow-weighted nutrient concentrations were computed for the three streamflow sites and were compared to 82 relatively undeveloped sites identified across the Nation, to the Alum Fork of the Saline River near Reform, Arkansas, and to the Illinois River south of Siloam Springs, Arkansas, a site influenced by numerous point and nonpoint sources of nutrients. Annual flow-weighted nutrient concentrations for MFS06, MFS05, and MFS02 were greater than relatively undeveloped sites, but were substantially less than the Illinois River south of Siloam Springs. Fecal indicator bacteria concentrations were slightly greater at MFS06 and MFS05 compared to concentrations at MFS02 for October 2003 to October 2006. MFS05 had the greatest E.coli concentrations and MFS06 had the greatest fecal coliform concentrations. Overall, fecal indicator bacteria concentrations were significantly greater for samples collected during high-flow conditions compared to samples collected during low-flow conditions at all three sites. Suspended-sediment concentrations did not vary significantly among MFS06, MFS05, and MFS02 for all the samples collected from October 2003 to October 2006. Suspended-sediment concentrations were significantly greater in samples collected during high-flow conditions compared to samples collected during base-flow conditions. Synoptic samples indicated varied total suspended-solids distributions from upstream to downstream in the Middle Fork between January 2004 and October 2006. Overall, total suspended-solids values were the greatest at site MFS02 and decreased at sites upstream and downstream. Turbidity measured when water-quality samples were

Hydrologic controls on basin-scale distribution of benthic macroinvertebrates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertuzzo, E.; Ceola, S.; Singer, G. A.; Battin, T. J.; Montanari, A.; Rinaldo, A.

2013-12-01

The presentation deals with the role of streamflow variability on basin-scale distributions of benthic macroinvertebrates. Specifically, we present a probabilistic analysis of the impacts of the variability along the river network of relevant hydraulic variables on the density of benthic macroinvertebrate species. The relevance of this work is based on the implications of the predictability of macroinvertebrate patterns within a catchment on fluvial ecosystem health, being macroinvertebrates commonly used as sensitive indicators, and on the effects of anthropogenic activity. The analytical tools presented here outline a novel procedure of general nature aiming at a spatially-explicit quantitative assessment of how near-bed flow variability affects benthic macroinvertebrate abundance. Moving from the analytical characterization of the at-a-site probability distribution functions (pdfs) of streamflow and bottom shear stress, a spatial extension to a whole river network is performed aiming at the definition of spatial maps of streamflow and bottom shear stress. Then, bottom shear stress pdf, coupled with habitat suitability curves (e.g., empirical relations between species density and bottom shear stress) derived from field studies are used to produce maps of macroinvertebrate suitability to shear stress conditions. Thus, moving from measured hydrologic conditions, possible effects of river streamflow alterations on macroinvertebrate densities may be fairly assessed. We apply this framework to an Austrian river network, used as benchmark for the analysis, for which rainfall and streamflow time-series and river network hydraulic properties and macroinvertebrate density data are available. A comparison between observed vs "modeled" species' density in three locations along the examined river network is also presented. Although the proposed approach focuses on a single controlling factor, it shows important implications with water resources management and fluvial ecosystem protection.

Fecal-indicator bacteria concentrations in the Illinois River between Hennepin and Peoria, Illinois: 2007-08

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dupre, David H.; Hortness, Jon E.; Terrio, Paul J.; Sharpe, Jennifer B.

2012-01-01

The Illinois Environmental Protection Agency has designated portions of the Illinois River in Peoria, Woodford, and Tazewell Counties, Illinois, as impaired owing to the presence of fecal coliform bacteria. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Tri-County Regional Planning Commission, examined the water quality in the Illinois River and major tributaries within a 47-mile reach between Peoria and Hennepin, Ill., during water year 2008 (October 2007–September 2008). Investigations included synoptic (snapshot) sampling at multiple locations in a 1-day period: once in October 2007 during lower streamflow conditions, and again in June 2008 during higher streamflow conditions. Five locations in the study area were monitored for the entire year at monthly or more frequent intervals. Two indicator bacteria were analyzed in each water sample: fecal coliform and Escherichia coli (E. coli). Streamflow information from previously established monitoring locations in the study area was used in the analysis. Correlation analyses were used to characterize the relation between the two fecal-indicator bacteria and the relation of either indicator to streamflow. Concentrations of the two measured fecal-indicator bacteria correlated well for all samples analyzed (r = 0.94, p E. coli: rho = -0.43, p = 0.0157). The correlation between fecal indicators and streamflow in tributaries or in the Illinois River at Hennepin was found to be statistically significant, yet moderate in strength with coefficient values ranging from r = 0.4 to 0.6. Indirect observations from the June 2008 higher flow synoptic event may indicate continued effects from combined storm and sanitary sewers in the vicinity of the Illinois River near Peoria, Ill., contributing to observed single-sample exceedance of the State criterion for fecal coliform.

Potential effects of climate change on streamflow, eastern and western slopes of the Sierra Nevada, California and Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jeton, A.E.; Dettinger, M.D.; Smith, J. LaRue

1996-01-01

Precipitation-runoff models of the East Fork Carson and North Fork American Rivers were developed and calibrated for use in evaluating the sensitivity of streamflow in the north-central Sierra Nevada to climate change. The East Fork Carson River drains part of the rain-shadowed, eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada and is generally higher than the North Fork American River, which drains the wetter, western slope. First, a geographic information system was developed to describe the spatial variability of basin characteristics and to help estimate model parameters. The result was a partitioning of each basin into noncontiguous, but hydrologically uniform, land units. Hydrologic descriptions of these units were developed and the Precipitation- Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to simulate water and energy balances for each unit in response to daily weather conditions. The models were calibrated and verified using historical streamflows over 22-year (Carson River) and 42-year (American River) periods. Simulated annual streamflow errors average plus 10 percent of the observed flow for the East Fork Carson River basin and plus 15 percent for the North Fork American River basin. Interannual variability is well simulated overall, but, at daily scales, wet periods are simulated more accurately than drier periods. The simulated water budgets for the two basins are significantly different in seasonality of streamflow, sublimation, evapotranspiration, and snowmelt. The simulations indicate that differences in snowpack and snowmelt timing can play pervasive roles in determining the sensitivity of water resources to climate change, in terms of both resource availability and amount. The calibrated models were driven by more than 25 hypothetical climate-change scenarios, each 100 years long. The scenarios were synthesized and spatially disaggregated by methods designed to preserve realistic daily, monthly, annual, and spatial statistics. Simulated streamflow timing was not very sensitive to changes in mean precipitation, but was sensitive to changes in mean temperatures. Changes in annual streamflow amounts were amplified reflections of imposed mean precipitation changes, with especially large responses to wetter climates. In contrast, streamflow amount was surprisingly insensitive to mean temperature changes as a result of temporal links between peak snowmelt and the beginning of warm-season evapotranspiration. Comparisons of simulations driven by temporally detailed climate-model changes in which mean temperature changes vary from month to month and simulations in which uniform climate changes were imposed throughout the year indicate that the snowpack accumulates the influences of short-term conditions so that season average climate changes were more important than shorter term changes.

Streamflow characteristics of streams in the Helmand Basin, Afghanistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams-Sether, Tara

2008-01-01

A majority of the Afghan population lacks adequate and safe supplies of water because of contamination, lack of water-resources management regulation, and lack of basic infrastructure, compounded by periods of drought and seasonal flooding. Characteristics of historical streamflows are needed to assist with efforts to quantify the water resources of the Helmand Basin. The Helmand Basin is the largest river basin in Afghanistan. It comprises the southern half of the country, draining waters from the Sia Koh Mountains in Herat Province to the eastern mountains in Gardez Province (currently known as the Paktia Province) and the Parwan Mountains northwest of Kabul, and finally draining into the unique Sistan depression between Iran and Afghanistan (Favre and Kamal, 2004). The Helmand Basin is a desert environment with rivers fed by melting snow from the high mountains and infrequent storms. Great fluctuations in streamflow, from flood to drought, can occur annually. Knowledge of the magnitude and time distribution of streamflow is needed to quantify water resources and for water management and environmental planning. Agencies responsible for the development and management of Afghanistan's surface-water resources can use this knowledge for making safe, economical, and environmentally sound water-resource planning decisions. To provide the Afghan managers with necessary streamflow information, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), computed streamflow statistics for data collected at historical gaging stations within the Helmand Basin. The historical gaging stations used are shown in figure 1 and listed in table 1.

Changes in precipitation-streamflow transformation around the world: interdecadal variability and trends.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saft, M.; Peel, M. C.; Andreassian, V.; Parajka, J.; Coxon, G.; Freer, J. E.; Woods, R. A.

2017-12-01

Accurate prediction of hydrologic response to potentially changing climatic forcing is a key current challenge in hydrology. Recent studies exploring decadal to multidecadal climate drying in the African Sahel and south-eastern and south-western Australia demonstrated that long dry periods also had an indirect cumulative impact on streamflow via altered catchment biophysical properties. As a result, hydrologic response to persisting change in climatic conditions, i.e. precipitation, cannot be confidently inferred from the hydrologic response to short-term interannual climate fluctuations of similar magnitude. This study aims to characterise interdecadal changes in precipitation-runoff conversion processes globally. The analysis is based on long continuous records from near-natural baseline catchments in North America, Europe, and Australia. We used several complimentary metrics characterising precipitation-runoff relationship to assess how partitioning changed over recent decades. First, we explore the hypothesis that during particularly dry or wet decades the precipitation elasticity of streamflow increases over what can be expected from inter-annual variability. We found this hypothesis holds for both wet and dry periods in some regions, but not everywhere. Interestingly, trend-like behaviour in the precipitation-runoff partitioning, unrelated to precipitation changes, offset the impact of persisting precipitation change in some regions. Therefore, in the second part of this study we explored longer-term trends in precipitation-runoff partitioning, and related them to climate and streamflow changes. We found significant changes in precipitation-runoff relationship around the world, which implies that runoff response to a given precipitation can vary over decades even in near-natural catchments. When significant changes occur, typically less runoff is generated for a given precipitation over time - even when precipitation is increasing. We discuss the consistency of the results and how the likely drivers differ between regions, and between water-limited and energy limited environments. We argue that when considering the impact of climatic change on hydrological systems we need to consider potential cumulative impacts of climatic shifts.

Flood of April 2007 in Southern Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lombard, Pamela J.

2009-01-01

Up to 8.5 inches of rain fell from April 15 through 18, 2007, in southern Maine. The rain - in combination with up to an inch of water from snowmelt - resulted in extensive flooding. York County, Maine, was declared a presidential disaster area following the event. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), determined peak streamflows and recurrence intervals at 24 locations and peak water-surface elevations at 63 sites following the April 2007 flood. Peak streamflows were determined with data from continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations where available and through hydraulic models where station data were not available. The flood resulted in peak streamflows with recurrence intervals greater than 100 years throughout most of York County, and recurrence intervals up to 50 years in Cumberland County. Peak flows for selected recurrence intervals varied from less than 10 percent to greater than 100 percent different than those in the current FEMA flood-insurance studies due to additional data or newer regression equations. Water-surface elevations observed during the April 2007 flood were bracketed by elevation profiles in FEMA flood-insurance studies with the same recurrence intervals as the recurrence intervals bracketing the observed peak streamflows at seven sites, with higher elevation-profile recurrence intervals than streamflow recurrence intervals at six sites, and with lower elevation-profile recurrence intervals than streamflow recurrence intervals at one site. The April 2007 flood resulted in higher peak flows and water-surface elevations than the flood of May 2006 in coastal locations in York County, and lower peak flows and water-surface elevations than the May 2006 flood further from the coast and in Cumberland County. The Mousam River watershed with over 13 dams and reservoirs was severely impacted by both events. Analyses indicate that the April 2007 peak streamflows in the Mousam River watershed occurred despite the fact that up to 287 million ft3 of runoff was stored by 13 dams and reservoirs.

Five Centuries of Tree Ring Reconstructed Streamflow and Projections for Future Water Risk over the Upper Indus Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, M. P.; Cook, E. R.; Cook, B.; Palmer, J. G.; Uriarte, M.; Devineni, N.; Lall, U.; D'Arrigo, R.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Ahmed, M.

2017-12-01

We present tree-ring reconstructions of streamflow at seven gauges in the Upper Indus River watershed over the past five centuries (1452-2008 C.E.) using Hierarchical Bayesian Regression (HBR) with partial pooling of information across gauges. Using HBR with partial pooling we can develop reconstructions for short gauge records with interspersed missing data. This overcomes a common limitation faced when using conventional tree-ring reconstruction methods such as point-by-point regression (PPR) in remote regions in developing countries. Six of these streamflow gauge reconstructions are produced for the first time while a reconstruction at one streamflow gauge has been previously produced using PPR. These new reconstructions are used to characterize long-term flow variability and drought risk in the region. For the one gauge where a prior reconstruction exists, the reconstruction of streamflow by HBR and the more traditional PPR are nearly identical and yield comparable uncertainty estimates and reconstruction skill statistics. These results highlight that tree-ring reconstructions of streamflow are not dependent on the choice of statistical method. We find that streamflow in the region peaks between May-September, and is primarily driven by a combination of winter (January-March) precipitation and summer (May-September) temperature, with summer temperature likely guiding the rate of snow and glacial melt. Our reconstructions indicate that current flow since the 1980s are higher than mean flow for the past five centuries at five out of seven gauges in the watershed. The increased flow is likely driven by enhanced rates of snow and glacial melt and regional wetting over recent decades. These results suggest that while in the near-term streamflow is expected to increase, future water risk in the region will be dependent on changes in snowfall and glacial mass balance due to projected warming.

Assessment of Climate Change and Agricultural Land Use Change on Streamflow Input to Devils Lake: A Case Study of the Mauvais Coulee Sub-basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, C.; Todhunter, P. E.

2017-12-01

Since 1993, Devils Lake in North Dakota has experienced a prolonged rise in lake level and flooding of the lake's neighboring areas within the closed basin system. Understanding the relative contribution of climate change and land use change is needed to explain the historical rise in lake level, and to evaluate the potential impact of anthropogenic climate change upon future lake conditions and management. Four methodologies were considered to examine the relative contribution of climatic and human landscape drivers to streamflow variations: statistical, ecohydrologic, physically-based modeling, and elasticity of streamflow; for this study, ecohydrologic and climate elasticity were selected. Agricultural statistics determined that Towner and Ramsey counties underwent a crop conversion from small grains to row crops within the last 30 years. Through the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), a 10 meter resolution DEM confirmed the presence of innumerable wetland depressions within the non-contributing area of the Mauvais Coulee Sub-basin. Although the ecohydrologic and climate elasticity methodologies are the most commonly used in literature, they make assumptions that are not applicable to basin conditions. A modified and more informed approach to the use of these methods was applied to account for these unique sub-basin characteristics. Ultimately, hydroclimatic variability was determined as the largest driver to streamflow variation in Mauvais Coulee and Devils Lake.

Predicting streamflow response to fire-induced landcover change: implications of parameter uncertainty in the MIKE SHE model.

PubMed

McMichael, Christine E; Hope, Allen S

2007-08-01

Fire is a primary agent of landcover transformation in California semi-arid shrubland watersheds, however few studies have examined the impacts of fire and post-fire succession on streamflow dynamics in these basins. While it may seem intuitive that larger fires will have a greater impact on streamflow response than smaller fires in these watersheds, the nature of these relationships has not been determined. The effects of fire size on seasonal and annual streamflow responses were investigated for a medium-sized basin in central California using a modified version of the MIKE SHE model which had been previously calibrated and tested for this watershed using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology. Model simulations were made for two contrasting periods, wet and dry, in order to assess whether fire size effects varied with weather regime. Results indicated that seasonal and annual streamflow response increased nearly linearly with fire size in a given year under both regimes. Annual flow response was generally higher in wetter years for both weather regimes, however a clear trend was confounded by the effect of stand age. These results expand our understanding of the effects of fire size on hydrologic response in chaparral watersheds, but it is important to note that the majority of model predictions were largely indistinguishable from the predictive uncertainty associated with the calibrated model - a key finding that highlights the importance of analyzing hydrologic predictions for altered landcover conditions in the context of model uncertainty. Future work is needed to examine how alternative decisions (e.g., different likelihood measures) may influence GLUE-based MIKE SHE streamflow predictions following different size fires, and how the effect of fire size on streamflow varies with other factors such as fire location.

Evaluation of selected methods for determining streamflow during periods of ice effect

USGS Publications Warehouse

Melcher, Norwood B.; Walker, J.F.

1992-01-01

Seventeen methods for estimating ice-affected streamflow are evaluated for potential use with the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station network. The methods evaluated were identified by written responses from U.S. Geological Survey field offices and by a comprehensive literature search. The methods selected and techniques used for applying the methods are described in this report. The methods are evaluated by comparing estimated results with data collected at three streamflow-gaging stations in Iowa during the winter of 1987-88. Discharge measurements were obtained at 1- to 5-day intervals during the ice-affected periods at the three stations to define an accurate baseline record. Discharge records were compiled for each method based on data available, assuming a 6-week field schedule. The methods are classified into two general categories-subjective and analytical--depending on whether individual judgment is necessary for method application. On the basis of results of the evaluation for the three Iowa stations, two of the subjective methods (discharge ratio and hydrographic-and-climatic comparison) were more accurate than the other subjective methods and approximately as accurate as the best analytical method. Three of the analytical methods (index velocity, adjusted rating curve, and uniform flow) could potentially be used at streamflow-gaging stations, where the need for accurate ice-affected discharge estimates justifies the expense of collecting additional field data. One analytical method (ice-adjustment factor) may be appropriate for use at stations with extremely stable stage-discharge ratings and measuring sections. Further research is needed to refine the analytical methods. The discharge-ratio and multiple-regression methods produce estimates of streamflow for varying ice conditions using information obtained from the existing U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging network.

Exploring the Link Between Streamflow Trends and Climate Change in Indiana, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, S.; Kam, J.; Thurner, K.; Merwade, V.

2007-12-01

Streamflow trends in Indiana are evaluated for 85 USGS streamflow gaging stations that have continuous unregulated streamflow records varying from 10 to 80 years. The trends are analyzed by using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test with prior trend-free pre-whitening to remove serial correlation in the data. Bootstrap method is used to establish field significance of the results. Trends are computed for 12 streamflow statistics to include low-, medium- (median and mean flow), and high-flow conditions on annual and seasonal time step. The analysis is done for six study periods, ranging from 10 years to more than 65 years, all ending in 2003. The trends in annual average streamflow, for 50 years study period, are compared with annual average precipitation trends from 14 National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) stations in Indiana, that have 50 years of continuous daily record. The results show field significant positive trends in annual low and medium streamflow statistics at majority of gaging stations for study periods that include 40 or more years of records. In seasonal analysis, all flow statistics in summer and fall (low flow seasons), and only low flow statistics in winter and spring (high flow seasons) are showing positive trends. No field significant trends in annual and seasonal flow statistics are observed for study periods that include 25 or fewer years of records, except for northern Indiana where localized negative trends are observed in 10 and 15 years study periods. Further, stream flow trends are found to be highly correlated with precipitation trends on annual time step. No apparent climate change signal is observed in Indiana stream flow records.

Tree-ring indicators of rainfall and streamflow for the Ili-Balkhash Basin, Central Asia since CE 1560

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Feng; Yuan, Yujiang; Yu, Shulong

2017-09-01

We reconstructed previous July - current April total precipitation in the upper Ili-Balkhash Basin of Central Asia, using a transfer equation based on the correlation between regional tree-ring width series and local precipitation data. Dry periods were identified from 1586-1612, 1637-1669, 1695-1721, 1759-1782, 1804-1864, 1907-1930 and 1974-1993, while wet periods occurred from 1560-1585, 1613-1636, 1670-1694, 1722-1758, 1783-1803, 1865-1906, 1931-1973 and 1994-2006. Spatial correlation analysis indicates that our precipitation reconstruction is broadly representative of precipitation in the entire Ili-Balkhash Basin. The precipitation timeseries is also strongly related to streamflow measurements, revealing that variations in precipitation in the upper Ili-Balkhash Basin have a dramatic influence on streamflow into Lake Balkhash. The precipitation reconstruction also compares well with various streamflow reconstructions from the Tien Shan, and exhibits an increasing streamflow trend in the 1980s through 2000s. Spectral analysis showed significant 60-, 33-, 11-, 2.8- and 2.1-year cycles over the past 447 years. Our 447-year precipitation reconstruction provides the basis for comparing past and present hydroclimate changes, which will be important for detection and attribution of hydroclimate variation in the Ili-Balkhash Basin.

Nationwide validation of ensemble streamflow forecasts from the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) of the U.S. National Weather Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H. S.; Liu, Y.; Ward, J.; Brown, J.; Maestre, A.; Herr, H.; Fresch, M. A.; Wells, E.; Reed, S. M.; Jones, E.

2017-12-01

The National Weather Service's (NWS) Office of Water Prediction (OWP) recently launched a nationwide effort to verify streamflow forecasts from the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) for a majority of forecast locations across the 13 River Forecast Centers (RFCs). Known as the HEFS Baseline Validation (BV), the project involves a joint effort between the OWP and the RFCs. It aims to provide a geographically consistent, statistically robust validation, and a benchmark to guide the operational implementation of the HEFS, inform practical applications, such as impact-based decision support services, and to provide an objective framework for evaluating strategic investments in the HEFS. For the BV, HEFS hindcasts are issued once per day on a 12Z cycle for the period of 1985-2015 with a forecast horizon of 30 days. For the first two weeks, the hindcasts are forced with precipitation and temperature ensemble forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and by resampled climatology for the remaining period. The HEFS-generated ensemble streamflow hindcasts are verified using the Ensemble Verification System. Skill is assessed relative to streamflow hindcasts generated from NWS' current operational system, namely climatology-based Ensemble Streamflow Prediction. In this presentation, we summarize the results and findings to date.

Seasonal Prediction of Taiwan's Streamflow Using Teleconnection Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Chia-Jeng; Lee, Tsung-Yu

2017-04-01

Seasonal streamflow as an integrated response to complex hydro-climatic processes can be subject to activity of prevailing weather systems potentially modulated by large-scale climate oscillations (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO). To develop a seamless seasonal forecasting system in Taiwan, this study assesses how significant Taiwan's precipitation and streamflow in different seasons correlate with selected teleconnection patterns. Long-term precipitation and streamflow data in three major precipitation seasons, namely the spring rains (February to April), Mei-Yu (May and June), and typhoon (July to September) seasons, are derived at 28 upstream and 13 downstream catchments in Taiwan. The three seasons depict a complete wet period of Taiwan as well as many regions bearing similar climatic conditions in East Asia. Lagged correlation analysis is then performed to investigate how the precipitation and streamflow data correlate with predominant teleconnection indices at varied lead times. Teleconnection indices are selected only if they show certain linkage with weather systems and activity in the three seasons based on previous literature. For instance, the ENSO and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, proven to influence East Asian climate across seasons and summer typhoon activity, respectively, are included in the list of climate indices for correlation analysis. Significant correlations found between Taiwan's precipitation and streamflow and teleconnection indices are further examined by a climate regime shift (CRS) test to identify any abrupt changes in the correlations. The understanding of existing CRS is useful for informing the forecasting system of the changes in the predictor-predictand relationship. To evaluate prediction skill in the three seasons and skill differences between precipitation and streamflow, hindcasting experiments of precipitation and streamflow are conducted using stepwise linear regression models. Discussion and suggestions for coping with extreme events in empirical seasonal predictions are also carried out. Findings from this work will contribute to the development of an integrated water resources planning and management system.

21st Century Projections of High Streamflow Events in the UK and Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cioffi, Francesco; Rosario Conticello, Federico; Lall, Upmanu; Merz, Bruno

2017-04-01

Radiative effects of anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition are expected to enhance the hydrological cycle leading to more frequent and intense floods. To explore if there will be an increased risk of river flooding in the future, 21st century projections under global warming scenarios of High Streamflow Events (HSEs) for UK and German rivers are carried out, using a model that statistically relates large-scale atmospheric predictors - 850 hPa Geopotential Height (GPH850) and Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT) - to the occurrence of HSEs in one or simultaneously in several streamflow gauges. Here, HSE is defined as the streamflow exceeding the 99th percentile of daily flowrate time series measured at streamflow gauges. For the common period 1960-2012, historical data from 57 streamflow gauges in UK and 61 streamflow gauges in Germany, as well as, reanalysis data of GPH850 and IVT fields, bounded from 90W to 70E and from 20N to 80N are used. The link between GPH850 configurations and HSEs, and more precisely, identification of the GPH850 states potentially able to generate HSEs, is performed by a combined Kohonen Networks (Self Organized Map, SOM) and Event Syncronization approach. Complex network and modularity methods are used to cluster streamflow gauges that share common GPH850 configurations. Then a model based on a conditional Poisson distribution, in which the parameter of the Poisson distribution is assumed to be a nonlinear function of GPH850 and IVT, allows for the identification of GPH850 state and threshold of IVT beyond which there is the HSE highest probability. Using that model, projections of 21st century changes in frequency of HSEs occurrence in UK and Germany are estimated using the simulated fields of GPH850 and IVT from selected GCMs belonging to the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Among the different GCMs, those are selected whose retrospective predictor fields have consistent statistics with the corresponding reanalysis data.

Streamflow of 2016—Water year summary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jian, Xiaodong; Wolock, David M.; Lins, Harry F.; Brady, Steven J.

2017-09-26

The maps and graphs in this summary describe national streamflow conditions for water year 2016 (October 1, 2015, to September 30, 2016) in the context of streamflow ranks relative to the 87-year period of 1930–2016, unless otherwise noted. The illustrations are based on observed data from the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) National Streamflow Network. The period of 1930–2016 was used because the number of streamgages before 1930 was too small to provide representative data for computing statistics for most regions of the country.In the summary, reference is made to the term “runoff,” which is the depth to which a river basin, State, or other geographic area would be covered with water if all the streamflow within the area during a specified period was uniformly distributed on it. Runoff quantifies the magnitude of water flowing through the Nation’s rivers and streams in measurement units that can be compared from one area to another.In all the graphics, a rank of 1 indicates the highest flow of all years analyzed and 87 indicates the lowest flow of all years. Rankings of streamflow are grouped into much below normal, below normal, normal, above normal, and much above normal based on percentiles of flow (less than 10 percent, 10–24 percent, 25–75 percent, 76–90 percent, and greater than 90 percent, respectively). Some of the data used to produce the maps and graphs are provisional and subject to change.

History of U.S. Geological Survey streamgaging on the Souris River in and near Minot, North Dakota, 1903–2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baker, Kevin K.; Robinson, Steven M.

2016-09-07

The U.S. Geological Survey began collecting streamflow data, in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission, on the Souris River in and near Minot, North Dakota, in April 1903. The gage was started up to better understand the water resources available in North Dakota. Currently (2016), water availability is still important as well as the flood monitoring and forecasting that has become an important component of this gage. Gage-height and streamflow data for the Souris River in and near Minot have been collected at five different streamgage locations during the years. This fact sheet describes the history of streamgaging (locations, gage-height data, and streamflow data) and flooding on the Souris River in and near Minot since 1903.

Response of stream benthic macroinvertebrates to current water management in Alpine catchments massively developed for hydropower.

PubMed

Quadroni, Silvia; Crosa, Giuseppe; Gentili, Gaetano; Espa, Paolo

2017-12-31

The present work focuses on evaluating the ecological effects of hydropower-induced streamflow alteration within four catchments in the central Italian Alps. Downstream from the water diversions, minimum flows are released as an environmental protection measure, ranging approximately from 5 to 10% of the mean annual natural flow estimated at the intake section. Benthic macroinvertebrates as well as daily averaged streamflow were monitored for five years at twenty regulated stream reaches, and possible relationships between benthos-based stream quality metrics and environmental variables were investigated. Despite the non-negligible inter-site differences in basic streamflow metrics, benthic macroinvertebrate communities were generally dominated by few highly resilient taxa. The highest level of diversity was detected at sites where upstream minimum flow exceedance is higher and further anthropogenic pressures (other than hydropower) are lower. However, according to the current Italian normative index, the ecological quality was good/high on average at all of the investigated reaches, thus complying the Water Framework Directive standards. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Linking climate variations with the hydrological cycle over the semi-arid Central Andes of Argentina. Past, present and future, with emphasis on streamflow droughts.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivera, Juan Antonio; Araneo, Diego; Penalba, Olga; Villalba, Ricardo

2017-04-01

In the Central Andes of Argentina (CAA, located between 28° and 38°S), an arid to semi-arid region, the irrigation and a variety of socio-economical activities are highly dependent on river streamflows. Permanent and semi-permanent rivers originate mainly from snowmelt and glacier ablation, enabling the development of large agricultural oasis and the construction of numerous dams and reservoirs for irrigation and power generation. Most of its 2.5 million inhabitants and the main economic activities are located in a small irrigated fraction of the territory, where the variations in the timing and amount of water resources largely determine the socio-economic vulnerability of the region. In this context, the links between climatic variability and the hydrological cycle were assessed considering daily streamflow records from 21 streamgauges in the main rivers of the study area. Principal component analysis of annual hydrographs from 1931 to 2015 allowed to discriminate between precipitation- and temperature-related components associated with variations in snow accumulation (51% of variance) and advances/delays of the streamflow annual peak (16% of variance), respectively. The components related to intraseasonal variability account for 7% and 6% of variance, respectively, mixing both precipitation and thermal factors. The contribution of the precipitation-related component was the main driver of the 2010-15 streamflow drought conditions, although the thermal contribution was relevant during specific seasonal drought events. Based on an empirical decomposition methodology we identified the main modes of streamflow drought variability, which are linked to El Niño-Southern Oscillation on interannual time scales and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) for the decadal variations. This result shows the influence of the tropical Pacific Ocean in the development of streamflow drought conditions and its relevance for potential predictability of hydroclimatic variations over the region. Nevertheless, recent studies indicate that, besides the contribution of La Niña and PDO signals, anthropogenic climate change could be responsible for the development of regional extreme drought conditions. In fact, reconstruction of CAA hydroclimate based on centennial-long tree-ring records shows a recent declining precipitation trend that is also evident over North Patagonia (38°-45°S) reconstructions, unprecedented in the last 400 years. This decreasing trend can be linked to the broadening of the sub-tropical dry zones as a displacement of the descending arm of the Hadley Cell circulation, a phenomenon likely forced by increased greenhouse gas concentrations, although its underlying mechanisms still not well understood. The assessment of future drought conditions based on a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble forced under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) shows an expected increase in the number of drought events, with a decrease in the mean drought duration and non-significant changes in mean drought severity, although these results have a high range of uncertainty and are dependent on the future time horizon and selected scenario. Moreover, projected temperature trends will shift the streamflow peak from summer to late spring, in combination with a decrease in snow accumulation that will decrease the annual cycle amplitude. Both factors will likely change the hydroclimate of the semi-arid Andes, calling for new and improved water management practices over the region.

The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator: A decision-support tool to assess water availability at ungaged stream locations in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Archfield, Stacey A.; Vogel, Richard M.; Steeves, Peter A.; Brandt, Sara L.; Weiskel, Peter K.; Garabedian, Stephen P.

2010-01-01

Federal, State and local water-resource managers require a variety of data and modeling tools to better understand water resources. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, has developed a statewide, interactive decision-support tool to meet this need. The decision-support tool, referred to as the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator (MA SYE) provides screening-level estimates of the sustainable yield of a basin, defined as the difference between the unregulated streamflow and some user-specified quantity of water that must remain in the stream to support such functions as recreational activities or aquatic habitat. The MA SYE tool was designed, in part, because the quantity of surface water available in a basin is a time-varying quantity subject to competing demands for water. To compute sustainable yield, the MA SYE tool estimates a daily time series of unregulated, daily mean streamflow for a 44-year period of record spanning October 1, 1960, through September 30, 2004. Selected streamflow quantiles from an unregulated, daily flow-duration curve are estimated by solving six regression equations that are a function of physical and climate basin characteristics at an ungaged site on a stream of interest. Streamflow is then interpolated between the estimated quantiles to obtain a continuous daily flow-duration curve. A time series of unregulated daily streamflow subsequently is created by transferring the timing of the daily streamflow at a reference streamgage to the ungaged site by equating exceedence probabilities of contemporaneous flow at the two locations. One of 66 reference streamgages is selected by kriging, a geostatistical method, which is used to map the spatial relation among correlations between the time series of the logarithm of daily streamflows at each reference streamgage and the ungaged site. Estimated unregulated, daily mean streamflows show good agreement with observed unregulated, daily mean streamflow at 18 streamgages located across southern New England. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency goodness-of-fit values are between 0.69 and 0.98, and percent root-mean-square-error values are between 19 and 283 percent. The MA SYE tool provides an estimate of streamflow adjusted for current (2000-04) water withdrawals and discharges using a spatially referenced database of permitted groundwater and surface-water withdrawal and discharge volumes. For a user-selected basin, the database is queried to obtain the locations of water withdrawal or discharge volumes within the basin. Groundwater and surface-water withdrawals and discharges are subtracted and added, respectively, from the unregulated, daily streamflow at an ungaged site to obtain a streamflow time series that includes the effects of these withdrawals and discharges. Users also have the option of applying an analytical solution to the time-varying, groundwater withdrawal and discharge volumes that take into account the effects of the aquifer properties on the timing and magnitude of streamflow alteration. For the MA SYE tool, it is assumed that groundwater and surface-water divides are coincident. For areas of southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod where this assumption is known to be violated, groundwater-flow models are used to estimate average monthly streamflows at fixed locations. There are several limitations to the quality and quantity of the spatially referenced database of groundwater and surface-water withdrawals and discharges. The adjusted streamflow values do not account for the effects on streamflow of climate change, septic-system discharge, impervious area, non-public water-supply withdrawals less than 100,000 gallons per day, and impounded surface-water bodies.

Effects of Climate Change on Extreme Streamflow Risks in the Olympic National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tohver, I. M.; Lee, S.; Hamlet, A.

2011-12-01

Conventionally, natural resource management practices are designed within the framework that past conditions serve as a baseline for future conditions. However, the warmer future climate projected for the Pacific Northwest will alter the region's flood and low flow risks, posing considerable challenges to resource managers in the Olympic National Forest (ONF) and Olympic National Park (ONP). Shifts in extreme streamflow will influence two key management objectives in the ONF and ONP: the protection of wildlife and the maintenance of road infrastructure. The ONF is charged with managing habitat for species listed under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), and with maintaining the network of forest roads and culverts. Climate-induced increases in flood severity will introduce additional challenges in road and culvert design. Furthermore, the aging road infrastructure and more extreme summer low flows will compromise aquatic habitats, intrinsic to the health of threatened and endangered fish species listed under the ESA. Current practice uses estimates of Q100 (or the peak flow with an estimated 100 year return frequency) as the standard metric for stream crossing design. Simple regression models relating annual precipitation and basin area to Q100 are used in the design process. Low flow estimates are based on historical streamflow data to calculate the 7-day consecutive lowest flow with a 10-year return interval, or 7Q10. Under the projections a changing climate, these methods for estimating extreme flows are ill equipped to capture the complex and spatially varying effects of seasonal changes in temperature, precipitation, and snowpack on extreme flow risk. As an alternative approach, this study applies a physically-based hydrologic model to estimate historical and future flood risk at 1/16th degree (latitude/longitude) resolution (about 32 km2). We downscaled climate data derived from 10 global climate models to use as input for the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, a macro-scale hydrologic model, which simulates various hydrologic variables at a daily time step. Using the VIC estimates for baseflow and run-off, we calculated Q100 and 7Q10 for the historical period and under two emission scenarios, A1B and B1, at three future time intervals: the 2020s, the 2040s and the 2080s. We also calculated Q100 and 7Q10 at the spatial scale of the 12-digit hydrologic unit codes (HUCs) as delineated by the United States Geologic Survey. The results demonstrate the sensitivity of snowpack at mid-elevation basins to a warmer climate, resulting in more severe winter flooding and lower streamflows in the summertime. These ensemble estimates of extreme streamflows will serve as a tool for management practices by providing high-resolution maps of changing risk over the ONF and ONP.

Simulation of flow in the upper North Coast Limestone Aquifer, Manati-Vega Baja area, Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cherry, Gregory S.

2001-01-01

A two-dimensional computer ground-water model was constructed of the Manati-Vega Baja area to improve the understanding of the unconfined upper aquifer within the North Coast Province of Puerto Rico. The modeled area covers approximately 79 square miles within the municipios of Manati and Vega Baja and small portions of Vega Alta and Barceloneta. Steady-state two-dimensional ground-water simulations were correlated to conditions prior to construction of the Laguna Tortuguero outlet channel in 1940 and calibrated to the observed potentiometric surface in March 1995. At the regional scale, the unconfined Upper North Coast Limestone aquifer is a diffuse ground-water flow system through the Aguada and Aymamon limestone units. The calibrated model input parameters for aquifer recharge varied from 2 inches per year in coastal areas to 18 inches per year in the upland areas south of Manati and Vega Baja. The calibrated transmissivity values ranged from less than 500 feet squared per day in the upland areas near the southern boundary to 70,000 feet squared per day in the areas west of Vega Baja. Increased ground-water withdrawals from 1.0 cubic foot per second for 1940 conditions to 26.3 cubic feet per second in 1995, has reduced the natural ground-water discharge to springs and wetland areas, and induced additional recharge from the rivers. The most important regional drainage feature is Laguna Tortuguero, which is the major ground-water discharge body for the upper aquifer, and has a drainage area of approximately 17 square miles. The discharge to the sea from Laguna Tortuguero through the outlet channel has been measured on a bi-monthly basis since 1974. The outflow represents a combination of ground- and surface-water discharge over the drainage area. Hydrologic conditions, prior to construction of the Laguna Tortuguero outlet channel in 1943, can be considered natural conditions with minimal ground-water pumpage (1.0 cubic foot per second), and heads in the lagoon were 2.4 feet higher. The model was calibrated to March 1995 conditions during a dry period of minimal aquifer recharge and relatively constant water levels in the upper aquifer. For the steady-state 1995 model simulation, however, ground-water pumpage had been increased to 26.3 cubic foot per second, due to increased demand for public water supply, the heads at 0.9 feet, and the outflow to the sea at Laguna Tortuguero had been lowered considerably. Simulated ground-water inflow for 1940 hydrologic conditions included 35.9 cubic feet per second from areal recharge, contributions from streamflow along the southern boundary of 1.6 cubic feet per second, and streamflow infiltration to the upper aquifer of 4.2 cubic feet per second. Simulated ground-water outflow for 1940 hydrologic conditions are discharge to springs of 17.4 cubic feet per second, total ground-water withdrawals of 1.0 cubic feet per second, and aquifer contribution to streamflow or wetland areas of 23.4 cubic feet per second. Simulated ground-water inflow for hydrologic conditions of March 1995 include d contributions from streamflow along the southern boundary of 1.6 cubic feet per second, areal recharge of 35.9 cubic feet per second, and streamflow infiltration to the upper aquifer of 11 cubic feet per second. Simulated ground-water outflow for hydrologic conditions of March 1995 are ground-water withdrawals of 26.3 cubic feet per second, discharge from springs of 7.3 cubic feet per second, and aquifer contribution to streamflow or wetland areas of 14 .9 cubic feet per second. The overall ground-water budget increased from 41.8 cubic feet per second for 1940 conditions to 48.6 cubic feet per second for the hydrologic conditions of March 1995. The increase in ground-water budget is a direct result of increased ground-water withdrawals, which induced greater streamflow infiltration. Simulated ground-water flux to Laguna Tortuguero for 1940 conditions was 11 cubic feet per second, which drop

Streamflow characteristics of the Colorado River Basin in Utah through September 1981

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, R.C.; Johnson, E.B.; Plantz, G.G.

1987-01-01

 This report summarizes discharge data and other streamflow characteristics developed from gag ing-station records collected through September 1981 at 337 stations in the Colorado River Basin in Utah. Data also are included for 14 stations in adjacent areas of the bordering states of Arizona, Colorado, and Wyoming (fig. 1). The study leading to this report was done in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, which needs the streamflow data in order to evaluate impacts of mining on the hydrologic system. The report also will be beneficial to other Federal, State, and county agencies and to individuals concerned with water supply and water problems in the Colorado River Basin.The streamflow characteristics in the report could be useful in many water-related studies that involve the following:Definition of baseline-hydrologic conditions; studies of the effects of man's activities on streamflow; frequency analyses of low and high flows; regional analyses of streamflow characteristics; design of water-supply systems; water-power studies; forecasting of stream discharge; time-series analyses of streamflow; design of flood-control structures; stream-pollution studies; and water-chemistry transport studies.The basic data used to develop the summaries in this report are records of daily and peak discharge collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and other Federal agencies. Much of the work of the Geological Survey was done in cooperation with Federal, State, and county agencies. Discharge recordsincluded in the report generally were for stations with at least 1 complete water year of record and nearby stations that were on the same stream and had different streamflow characteristics. A water year is a 12-month period ending September 30, and it is designated by the calendar year in which it ends. For streams that have had significant changes in regulation by reservoirs or diversions, the records before and after those changes were used separately to provide streamflow characteristics for each period of homogeneous streamflow and to show the change in the characteristics. Summaries for annual peak discharge are included only for stations with 5 or more years of data. The summaries of annual lowest and highest mean-discharge frequency are reported for stations with 10 or more years of daily-discharge record and for which computer-generated frequency curves provided a reasonable fit of the plotted data.

Trends in snowmelt-related streamflow timing in the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dudley, R. W.; Hodgkins, G. A.; McHale, M. R.; Kolian, M. J.; Renard, B.

2017-04-01

Changes in snowmelt-related streamflow timing have implications for water availability and use as well as ecologically relevant shifts in streamflow. Historical trends in snowmelt-related streamflow timing (winter-spring center volume date, WSCVD) were computed for minimally disturbed river basins in the conterminous United States. WSCVD was computed by summing daily streamflow for a seasonal window then calculating the day that half of the seasonal volume had flowed past the gage. We used basins where at least 30 percent of annual precipitation was received as snow, and streamflow data were restricted to regionally based winter-spring periods to focus the analyses on snowmelt-related streamflow. Trends over time in WSCVD at gages in the eastern U.S. were relatively homogenous in magnitude and direction and statistically significant; median WSCVD was earlier by 8.2 days (1.1 days/decade) and 8.6 days (1.6 days/decade) for 1940-2014 and 1960-2014 periods respectively. Fewer trends in the West were significant though most trends indicated earlier WSCVD over time. Trends at low-to-mid elevation (<1600 m) basins in the West, predominantly located in the Northwest, had median earlier WSCVD by 6.8 days (1940-2014, 0.9 days/decade) and 3.4 days (1960-2014, 0.6 days/decade). Streamflow timing at high-elevation (⩾1600 m) basins in the West had median earlier WSCVD by 4.0 days (1940-2014, 0.5 days/decade) and 5.2 days (1960-2014, 0.9 days/decade). Trends toward earlier WSCVD in the Northwest were not statistically significant, differing from previous studies that observed many large and (or) significant trends in this region. Much of this difference is likely due to the sensitivity of trend tests to the time period being tested, as well as differences in the streamflow timing metrics used among the studies. Mean February-May air temperature was significantly correlated with WSCVD at 100 percent of the study gages (field significant, p < 0.0001), demonstrating the sensitivity of WSCVD to air temperature across snowmelt dominated basins in the U.S. WSCVD in high elevation basins in the West, however, was related to both air temperature and precipitation yielding earlier snowmelt-related streamflow timing under warmer and drier conditions.

An approach to the rationalization of streamflow data collection networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burn, Donald H.; Goulter, Ian C.

1991-01-01

A new procedure for rationalizing a streamflow data collection network is developed. The procedure is a two-phase approach in which in the first phase, a hierarchical clustering technique is used to identify groups of similar gauging stations. In the second phase, a single station from each identified group of gauging stations is selected to be retained in the rationalized network. The station selection phase is an inherently heuristic process that incorporates information about the characteristics of the individual stations in the network. The methodology allows the direct inclusion of user judgement into the station selection process in that it is possible to select more than one station from a group, if conditions warrant. The technique is demonstrated using streamflow gauging stations in and near the Pembina River basin, southern Manitoba, Canada.

History of irrigation and characteristics of streamflow in Nebraska, part of the North and South Platte River basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shaffer, F. Butler

1976-01-01

Statistics on streamflow for selected periods of time are presented for 28 gaging sites in the Nebraska part of the North and South Platte River basins. Monthly mean discharges, monthly means in percent of annual runoff, standard deviations, coefficients of variation, and monthly extremes are given. Also tabulated are probabilities of high discharges for 1 day and for 3, 7, 15, 30, and 60 consecutive days and of low discharges for 1 day and for 3, 7, 14, 30, and 60 consecutive days. All statistics are based on records that are representative of 1973 conditions of streamflow. Brief historical data are given for 27 of the principal irrigation canals diverting from the North and South Platte Rivers. (Woodard-USGS)

Simulated ground-water flow for a pond-dominated aquifer system near Great Sandy Bottom Pond, Pembroke, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carlson, Carl S.; Lyford, Forest P.

2005-01-01

A ground-water flow simulation for a 66.4-square-mile area around Great Sandy Bottom (GSB) Pond (105 acres) near Pembroke, Massachusetts, was developed for use by local and State water managers to assess the yields for public water supply of local ponds and wells for average climatic and drought conditions and the effects of water withdrawals on nearby water levels and streamflows. Wetlands and ponds cover about 30 percent of the study area and the aquifer system is dominated by interactions between ground water and the ponds. The three largest surface-water bodies in the study area are Silver Lake (640 acres), Monponsett Pond (590 acres), and Oldham Pond (236 acres). The study area is drained by tributaries of the Taunton River to the southwest, the South and North Rivers to the northeast, and the Jones River to the southeast. In 2002, 10.8 million gallons per day of water was exported from ponds and 3.5 million gallons per day from wells was used locally for public supply. A transient ground-water-flow model with 69 monthly stress periods spanning the period from January 1998 through September 2003 was calibrated to stage at GSB Pond and nearby Silver Lake and streamflow and water levels collected from September 2002 through September 2003. The calibrated model was used to assess hydrologic responses to a variety of water-use and climatic conditions. Simulation of predevelopment (no pumping or export) average monthly (1949-2002) water-level conditions caused the GSB Pond level to increase by 6.3 feet from the results of a simulation using average 2002 pumping for all wells, withdrawals, and exports. Most of this decline can be attributed to pumping, withdrawals, and exports of water from sites away from GSB Pond. The effects of increasing the export rate from GSB Pond by 1.25 and 1.5 times the 2002 rate were a lowering of pond levels by a maximum of 1.6 and 2.8 feet, respectively. Simulated results for two different drought conditions, one mild drought similar to that of 1979-82 and a more severe drought similar to that of 1963-66, but with current (2002) pumping, were compared to results for average monthly recharge conditions (1949-2002). Simulated mild drought conditions showed a reduction of GSB Pond level of about 1.3 feet and a lower streamflow of about 1.7 percent in the nearby stream. Simulated severe drought conditions reduced the pond level at GSB Pond by almost 7 feet and lowered streamflow by about 37 percent. Varying cranberry-irrigation practices had little effect on simulated GSB Pond water levels, but may be important in other ponds. The model was most sensitive to changes in areal recharge. An increase and decrease of 22 percent in recharge produced changes in the GSB Pond water level of +1.4 feet and -2.4 feet, respectively. The accuracy of simulation results was best in the central portion of the study area in the immediate location of GSB Pond. The model was developed with the study-area boundary far enough away from the GSB Pond area that the boundary would have minimal effect on the water levels in GSB Pond, nearby ponds, and the underlying aquifer system. The model is best suited for use by local and State water managers to assess the effects of different withdrawal scenarios for wells and ponds near GSB Pond and for general delineation of areas contributing recharge to wells and ponds in the vicinity of GSB Pond. The model in its current form may not be well suited to detailed analyses of water budgets and flow patterns for parts of the study area farther from GSB Pond without further investigation, calibration, and data collection.

Winter-spring 2001 United States streamflow probabilities based on anticipated neutral ENSO conditions and recent NPO status

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; McCabe, G.J.; Redmond, K.T.

2000-01-01

An analysis of historical floods and seasonal streamflows during years with neutral El NiñoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the tropical Pacific and “negative” states of the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) in the North Pacific—like those expected next year—indicates that (1) chances of having maximum-daily flows next year that are near the longterm averages in many rivers are enhanced, especially in the western states, (2) chances of having near-average seasonal-average flows also may be enhanced across the country, and (3) locally, chances of large floods and winter-season flows may be enhanced in the extreme Northwest, chances of large winter flows may be diminished in rivers in and around Wisconsin, and chances of large spring flows may be diminished in the interior southwest and southeastern coastal plain. The background, methods, and forecast results that lead to these statements are detailed below, followed by a summary of the successes and failures of last year’s streamflow forecast by Dettinger et al. (1999).

Using Temperature Forecasts to Improve Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts in the Colorado and Rio Grande Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehner, F.; Wood, A.; Llewellyn, D.; Blatchford, D. B.; Goodbody, A. G.; Pappenberger, F.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have documented the influence of increasing temperature on streamflow across the American West, including snow-melt driven rivers such as the Colorado or Rio Grande. At the same time, some basins are reporting decreasing skill in seasonal streamflow forecasts, termed water supply forecasts (WSFs), over the recent decade. While the skill in seasonal precipitation forecasts from dynamical models remains low, their skill in predicting seasonal temperature variations could potentially be harvested for WSFs to account for non-stationarity in regional temperatures. Here, we investigate whether WSF skill can be improved by incorporating seasonal temperature forecasts from dynamical forecasting models (from the North American Multi Model Ensemble and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast System 4) into traditional statistical forecast models. We find improved streamflow forecast skill relative to traditional WSF approaches in a majority of headwater locations in the Colorado and Rio Grande basins. Incorporation of temperature into WSFs thus provides a promising avenue to increase the robustness of current forecasting techniques in the face of continued regional warming.

Impacts of Land Use Change on the Natural Flow Regime: A Case Study in the Meramec River Watershed in Eastern Missouri, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, C. L.; Knouft, J.; Chu, M.

2017-12-01

The natural flow regime within a watershed can be considered as the expected temporal patterns of streamflow variation in the absence of human impacts. While ecosystems have evolved to function under these conditions, the natural flow regime of most rivers has been significantly altered by human activities. Land use change, including the development of agriculture and urbanization, is a primary cause of the loss of natural flow regimes. These changes have altered discharge volume, timing, and variability, and consequently affected the structure and functioning of river ecosystems. The Meramec River watershed is located in east central Missouri and changes in land use have been the primary factor impacting flow regimes across the watershed. In this study, a watershed model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was developed to simulate a long-term time series of streamflow (1978-2014) within the watershed. Model performance was evaluated using statistical metrics and graphical technique including R-squared, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, cumulative error, and 1:1-ratio comparison between observed and simulated variables. The calibrated and validated SWAT model was then used to quantify the responses of the watershed when it was a forested natural landscape. An Indicator of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) approach was applied to characterize the flow regime under the current landcover conditions as well as the simulated natural flow regime under the no land use change scenario. Differences in intra- and inter-annual ecologically relevant flow metrics were then compared using SWAT model outputs in conjunction with the IHA approach based on model outputs from current and no land use change conditions. This study provides a watershed-scale understanding of effects of land use change on a river's flow variability and provides a framework for the development of restoration plans for heavily altered watersheds.

Timing, Duration, and Effects of Droughts in the Southern Sierra Nevada and San Joaquin Valley, CA Over the Last 2000 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, K. D.; Negrini, R. M.; Rajagopal, S.; Cook, E. R.

2015-12-01

The Central Valley of California is one of the most prolific agricultural areas in the U.S., providing about 25 % of the nation's food. This system is reliant on winter snows in the Sierra Nevada that gradually melt through the spring, but over the last 4 years California has been in the grip of its worst drought of the last 150 years. The question remains, however, how unusual is this drought when compared to previous events over longer time scales? We used moisture sensitive tree-ring chronologies from the Living Blended Drought Atlas of Cook et al. (2010) to reconstruct annual discharges over the last 2000 years for the Kings, Kaweah, Tule, and Kern rivers in the southern Sierra and routed this discharge into a Tulare Lake water balance model to simulate lake-level fluctuations over this same time period. Although the current drought represents the driest consecutive four year period over the past 2000 years, in terms of discharge volumes, there are multiple periods of more severe, longer term drought represented by extended periods of low lake levels. Significant low-lake periods (< 61 m) include 793-814, 906-933, and 1140-1158, all of which occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Conversely, lake levels were predominately high during the ensuing Little Ice Age, separated by brief periods of low lake levels. Under natural flow conditions, the 1923-1935 drought would have lowered lake level to about 58 m, which is about 2 m lower than where lake level would have been in the current drought. Wavelet analyses of the streamflow and lake-level records reveal different periodicities of drought and wet conditions because lake-level is a state variable that changes relatively slowly, depending on inflow, precipitation on the lake, evaporation rate, and the hypsometry of the basin, whereas streamflow is a flux that responds immediately to climate perturbations. The streamflow records have a dominant period of 2-8 yrs but lake-level fluctuations follow longer periods of >32 yrs, primarily prior to 1300. While the 2-8 yr periodicity may reflect ENSO cycles, the causes of the longer periods in the lake-level record remain unknown.

Modeling the role of groundwater and vegetation in the hydrological response of tropical glaciated watersheds to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ng, G. H. C.; Wickert, A. D.; McLaughlin, R.; La Frenierre, J.; Liess, S.; Saberi, L.

2016-12-01

Climate change projections show greater rates at higher elevations, making tropical glaciated regions some of the most vulnerable hydrological systems and the earliest windows into changing conditions in mountainous watersheds. Many of the subsistence agrarian communities below Volcán Chimborazo, Ecuador, experience water stress, heightening the urgency to understand the hydrological impacts of climate change. Previous hydrochemical and physical observations suggest that a significant fraction of glacial melt may first recharge underlying groundwater before discharging to streams at lower elevations. This has important implications for tracking hydrological response to climate change, due to differences in the spatiotemporal behavior of surface water vs. groundwater. However, differentiating meltwater-sourced and precipitation-sourced groundwater throughout the watershed poses a challenge in elucidating the influence of accelerated but finite glacial melt on streamflow. In addition to glacial melt, recently noted upslope vegetation migration on Chimborazo will likely complicate future predictions of water availability by influencing the relative amounts of groundwater sources and changing discharge through altered evapotranspiration along riparian zones. To investigate the roles of groundwater pathways and vegetation on glacial melt contributions to streamflow, we implement the coupled groundwater/rainfall-runoff model GSFLOW. We infer hydrogeological model inputs from geological maps of Chimborazo and vegetation properties from a combination of remotely sensed imagery and in-situ surveys. Dynamically downscaled meteorological state variables, checked against field data, force the model. Such a model enables the quantification of the current meltwater contribution to streamflow at critical water extraction points and allows us to probe potential meltwater and water resource changes under future climate change scenarios.

Cost effectiveness of the stream-gaging program in South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barker, A.C.; Wright, B.C.; Bennett, C.S.

1985-01-01

The cost effectiveness of the stream-gaging program in South Carolina was documented for the 1983 water yr. Data uses and funding sources were identified for the 76 continuous stream gages currently being operated in South Carolina. The budget of $422,200 for collecting and analyzing streamflow data also includes the cost of operating stage-only and crest-stage stations. The streamflow records for one stream gage can be determined by alternate, less costly methods, and should be discontinued. The remaining 75 stations should be maintained in the program for the foreseeable future. The current policy for the operation of the 75 stations including the crest-stage and stage-only stations would require a budget of $417,200/yr. The average standard error of estimation of streamflow records is 16.9% for the present budget with missing record included. However, the standard error of estimation would decrease to 8.5% if complete streamflow records could be obtained. It was shown that the average standard error of estimation of 16.9% could be obtained at the 75 sites with a budget of approximately $395,000 if the gaging resources were redistributed among the gages. A minimum budget of $383,500 is required to operate the program; a budget less than this does not permit proper service and maintenance of the gages and recorders. At the minimum budget, the average standard error is 18.6%. The maximum budget analyzed was $850,000, which resulted in an average standard error of 7.6 %. (Author 's abstract)

Application of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Hay, Lauren E.; Viger, Roland J.; Markstrom, Steve L.; Regan, R. Steve; Elliott, Caroline M.; Jones, John W.

2013-01-01

A hydrologic model of the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin (ACFB) has been developed as part of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center effort to provide integrated science that helps resource managers understand the effect of climate change on a range of ecosystem responses. The hydrologic model was developed as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based system that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, and land use on basin hydrology. The ACFB PRMS model simulates streamflow throughout the approximately 50,700 square-kilometer basin on a daily time step for the period 1950–99 using gridded climate forcings of air temperature and precipitation, and parameters derived from spatial data layers of altitude, land cover, soils, surficial geology, depression storage (small water bodies), and data from 56 USGS streamgages. Measured streamflow data from 35 of the 56 USGS streamgages were used to calibrate and evaluate simulated basin streamflow; the remaining gage locations were used for model delineation only. The model matched measured daily streamflow at 31 of the 35 calibration gages with Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Index (NS) greater than 0.6. Streamflow data for some calibration gages were augmented for regulation and water use effects to represent more natural flow volumes. Time-static parameters describing land cover limited the ability of the simulation to match historical runoff in the more developed subbasins. Overall, the PRMS simulation of the ACFB provides a good representation of basin hydrology on annual and monthly time steps. Calibration subbasins were analyzed by separating the 35 subbasins into five classes based on physiography, land use, and stream type (tributary or mainstem). The lowest NS values were rarely below 0.6, whereas the median NS for all five classes was within 0.74 to 0.96 for annual mean streamflow, 0.89 to 0.98 for mean monthly streamflow, and 0.82 to 0.98 for monthly mean streamflow. The median bias for all five classes was within –4.3 to 0.8 percent for annual mean streamflow, –6.3 to 0.5 percent for mean monthly streamflow, and –9.3 to 1.3 percent for monthly mean streamflow. The NS results combined with the percent bias results indicated a good to very good streamflow volume simulation for all subbasins. This simulation of the ACFB provides a foundation for future modeling and interpretive studies. Streamflow and other components of the hydrologic cycle simulated by PRMS can be used to inform other types of simulations; water-temperature, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem-dynamics simulations are three examples. In addition, possible future hydrologic conditions could be studied using this model in combination with land cover projections and downscaled general circulation model results.

Regional Climate and Streamflow Projections in North America Under IPCC CMIP5 Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, H. I.; Castro, C. L.; Troch, P. A. A.; Mukherjee, R.

2014-12-01

The Colorado River system is the predominant source of water supply for the Southwest U.S. and is already fully allocated, making the region's environmental and economic health particularly sensitive to annual and multi-year streamflow variability. Observed streamflow declines in the Colorado Basin in recent years are likely due to synergistic combination of anthropogenic global warming and natural climate variability, which are creating an overall warmer and more extreme climate. IPCC assessment reports have projected warmer and drier conditions in arid to semi-arid regions (e.g. Solomon et al. 2007). The NAM-related precipitation contributes to substantial Colorado streamflows. Recent climate change studies for the Southwest U.S. region project a dire future, with chronic drought, and substantially reduced Colorado River flows. These regional effects reflect the general observation that climate is being more extreme globally, with areas climatologically favored to be wet getting wetter and areas favored to be dry getting drier (Wang et al. 2012). Multi-scale downscaling modeling experiments are designed using recent IPCC AR5 global climate projections, which incorporate regional climate and hydrologic modeling components. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) has been selected as the main regional modeling tool; the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) will be used to generate streamflow projections for the Colorado River Basin. The WRF domain is set up to follow the CORDEX-North America guideline with 25km grid spacing, and VIC model is individually calibrated for upper and lower Colorado River basins in 1/8° resolution. The multi-scale climate and hydrology study aims to characterize how the combination of climate change and natural climate variability is changing cool and warm season precipitation. Further, to preserve the downscaled RCM sensitivity and maintain a reasonable climatology mean based on observed record, a new bias correction technique is applied when using the RCM climatology to the streamflow model. Of specific interest is how major droughts associated with La Niña-like conditions may worsen in the future, as these are the times when the Colorado River system is most critically stressed and would define the "worst case" scenario for water resource planning.

Regression equations for estimating concentrations of selected water-quality constituents for selected gaging stations in the Red River of the North Basin, North Dakota, Minnesota, and South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams-Sether, Tara

2004-01-01

The Dakota Water Resources Act, passed by the U.S. Congress on December 15, 2000, authorized the Secretary of the Interior to conduct a comprehensive study of future water-quantity and quality needs of the Red River of the North Basin in North Dakota and possible options to meet those water needs. Previous Red River of the North Basin studies conducted by the Bureau of Reclamation used streamflow and water-quality data bases developed by the U.S. Geological Survey that included data for 1931-84. As a result of the recent congressional authorization and results of previous studies by the Bureau of Reclamation, redevelopment of the streamflow and water-quality data bases with current data through 1999 are needed in order to evaluate and predict the water-quantity and quality effects within the Red River of the North Basin. This report provides updated statistical summaries of selected water-quality constituents and streamflow and the regression relations between them.  Available data for 1931-99 were used to develop regression equations between 5 selected water-quality constituents and streamflow for 38 gaging stations in the Red River of the North Basin. The water-quality constituents that were regressed against streamflow were hardness (as CaCO3), sodium, chloride, sulfate, and dissolved solids. Statistical summaries of the selected water-quality constituents and streamflow for the gaging stations used in the regression equations development and the applications and limitations of the regression equations are presented in this report.

Changes in the relation between snow station observations and basin scale snow water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sexstone, G. A.; Penn, C. A.; Clow, D. W.; Moeser, D.; Liston, G. E.

2017-12-01

Snow monitoring stations that measure snow water equivalent or snow depth provide fundamental observations used for predicting water availability and flood risk in mountainous regions. In the western United States, snow station observations provided by the Natural Resources Conservation Service Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) network are relied upon for forecasting spring and summer streamflow volume. Streamflow forecast accuracy has declined for many regions over the last several decades. Changes in snow accumulation and melt related to climate, land use, and forest cover are not accounted for in current forecasts, and are likely sources of error. Therefore, understanding and updating relations between snow station observations and basin scale snow water resources is crucial to improve accuracy of streamflow prediction. In this study, we investigated the representativeness of snow station observations when compared to simulated basin-wide snow water resources within the Rio Grande headwaters of Colorado. We used the combination of a process-based snow model (SnowModel), field-based measurements, and remote sensing observations to compare the spatiotemporal variability of simulated basin-wide snow accumulation and melt with that of SNOTEL station observations. Results indicated that observations are comparable to simulated basin-average winter precipitation but overestimate both the simulated basin-average snow water equivalent and snowmelt rate. Changes in the representation of snow station observations over time in the Rio Grande headwaters were also investigated and compared to observed streamflow and streamflow forecasting errors. Results from this study provide important insight in the context of non-stationarity for future water availability assessments and streamflow predictions.

Total Mercury and Methylmercury in Indiana Streams, August 2004-September 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ulberg, Amanda L.; Risch, Martin R.

2008-01-01

Total mercury and methylmercury were determined by use of low (subnanogram per liter) level analytical methods in 225 representative water samples collected following ultraclean protocols at 25 Indiana monitoring stations in a statewide network, on a seasonal schedule, August 2004-September 2006. The highest unfiltered total mercury concentrations were at six monitoring stations - five that are downstream from urban and industrial wastewater discharges and that have upstream drainage areas more than 1,960 square miles and one that is downstream from active and abandoned mine lands and that has an upstream drainage area of 602 square miles. Total mercury concentrations in unfiltered samples ranged from 0.24 to 26.9 nanograms per liter (ng/L), with a median of 2.35 ng/L. The highest concentrations of total mercury, those in the 90th percentile and above, were more than 9.05 ng/L, and most were in samples collected during winter and spring 2006 during changing streamflow hydrograph conditions. Seasonal medians for unfiltered total mercury were highest during winter and spring. Instantaneous streamflow and turbidity at the time of sample collection also were highest in winter and spring and potentially indicate conditions for the most particulate mercury transport. Samples with the highest total mercury concentrations were from water that had the highest turbidity at the time of sample collection. Unfiltered total mercury concentrations were significantly lower in samples collected at five stations downstream from dams. Values for particulate total mercury and streamflow also were significantly lower at these five stations. Total mercury concentrations equaled or exceeded the 2007 Indiana chronic aquatic criterion of 12 ng/L in 5.8 percent of samples and at 10 monitoring stations. Most of the total mercury in these 13 samples was estimated to be particulate. Most of the samples with mercury concentrations that equaled or exceeded the 12 ng/L criterion were collected during winter and spring 2006 during changing streamflow hydrograph conditions and in streamflow that was high for 2004-2006. Methylmercury was detected in 83 percent of unfiltered samples; reported concentrations ranged from 0.04 to 0.57 ng/L, with a median of 0.09 ng/L. The highest concentrations of methylmercury, those in the 90th percentile and above, were more than 0.25 ng/L, and most were in samples collected during spring and summer. Methylation efficiency in most samples was less than 5.8 percent, but was as much as 24.6 percent. Seasonal medians for methylmercury were highest during spring and summer. Seasonal medians for water temperatures at the time of sample collection were highest during these seasons and potentially indicate conditions for the most formation of methylmercury. The low streamflow statistical category had the significantly highest methylation efficiency.

Predicting Hydrological Drought: Relative Contributions of Soil Moisture and Snow Information to Seasonal Streamflow Prediction Skill

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, R.; Mahanama, S.; Livneh, B.; Lettenmaier, D.; Reichle, R.

2011-01-01

in this study we examine how knowledge of mid-winter snow accumulation and soil moisture conditions contribute to our ability to predict streamflow months in advance. A first "synthetic truth" analysis focuses on a series of numerical experiments with multiple sophisticated land surface models driven with a dataset of observations-based meteorological forcing spanning multiple decades and covering the continental United States. Snowpack information by itself obviously contributes to the skill attained in streamflow prediction, particularly in the mountainous west. The isolated contribution of soil moisture information, however, is found to be large and significant in many areas, particularly in the west but also in region surrounding the Great Lakes. The results are supported by a supplemental, observations-based analysis using (naturalized) March-July streamflow measurements covering much of the western U.S. Additional forecast experiments using start dates that span the year indicate a strong seasonality in the skill contributions; soil moisture information, for example, contributes to kill at much longer leads for forecasts issued in winter than for those issued in summer.

Hydrostratigraphic and structural controls on streamflow generation in the Chuska Mountains, Navajo Nation, AZ/NM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsinnajinnie, L.; Frisbee, M. D.; Wilson, J. L.

2017-12-01

A conceptual model of hydrostratigraphic and structural influences on 3D streamflow generation processes is tested in the Whiskey Creek watershed located in the Chuska Mountains of the Navajo Nation along the northern NM/AZ border. The role of hydrostratigraphy and structure in groundwater processes has been well studied. However, influences of heterogeneity due to geologic structure and stratigraphy of mountain blocks on 3D streamflow generation has received less attention. Three-dimensional flow in mountainous watersheds, such as Saguache Creek (CO) and Rio Hondo (NM), contributes significant amounts of groundwater from deep circulation to streamflow. This fully 3D conceptual model is fundamentally different than watersheds characterized as 2D, those dominated by surface and shallow subsurface runoff, because 3D watersheds can have much longer flowpaths and mean residence times (up to 1000s of years). In contrast to Saguache Creek (volcanic bedrock) and Rio Hondo (crystalline metamorphic), the bedrock geology of the watersheds draining the Chuska Mountains is primarily comprised of sedimentary bedrock capped by extrusive volcanics. We test this conceptual model using a combination of stream gauging, tritium analyses, and endmember mixing analysis (EMMA) on the general ion chemistry and stable isotope composition of water samples collected in 2013-2016. Springs that emerge from the Chuska Sandstone are tritium dead indicative of a large component of pre-bomb pulse water in discharge and deeper 3D flow. EMMA indicates that most streamflow is generated from groundwater emerging from the Chuska Sandstone. Gaining/losing conditions in Whiskey Creek are strongly related to hydrostratigraphy as evidenced by a transition from gaining conditions largely found in the Chuska Sandstone to losing conditions where the underlying Chinle Formation outcrops. Although tritium in Whiskey Creek suggests 3D interactions are present, hydrostratigraphic and structural controls may limit the occurrence of longer residence times and longer flow paths. Mountainous watersheds similar to the 3D hydrostratigraphic and structurally controlled models will exhibit different responses to perturbations, such as climate change, than watersheds that fit existing 2D and 3D conceptual models.

Regression models of discharge and mean velocity associated with near-median streamflow conditions in Texas: utility of the U.S. Geological Survey discharge measurement database

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.

2014-01-01

A database containing more than 16,300 discharge values and ancillary hydraulic attributes was assembled from summaries of discharge measurement records for 391 USGS streamflow-gauging stations (streamgauges) in Texas. Each discharge is between the 40th- and 60th-percentile daily mean streamflow as determined by period-of-record, streamgauge-specific, flow-duration curves. Each discharge therefore is assumed to represent a discharge measurement made for near-median streamflow conditions, and such conditions are conceptualized as representative of midrange to baseflow conditions in much of the state. The hydraulic attributes of each discharge measurement included concomitant cross-section flow area, water-surface top width, and reported mean velocity. Two regression equations are presented: (1) an expression for discharge and (2) an expression for mean velocity, both as functions of selected hydraulic attributes and watershed characteristics. Specifically, the discharge equation uses cross-sectional area, water-surface top width, contributing drainage area of the watershed, and mean annual precipitation of the location; the equation has an adjusted R-squared of approximately 0.95 and residual standard error of approximately 0.23 base-10 logarithm (cubic meters per second). The mean velocity equation uses discharge, water-surface top width, contributing drainage area, and mean annual precipitation; the equation has an adjusted R-squared of approximately 0.50 and residual standard error of approximately 0.087 third root (meters per second). Residual plots from both equations indicate that reliable estimates of discharge and mean velocity at ungauged stream sites are possible. Further, the relation between contributing drainage area and main-channel slope (a measure of whole-watershed slope) is depicted to aid analyst judgment of equation applicability for ungauged sites. Example applications and computations are provided and discussed within a real-world, discharge-measurement scenario, and an illustration of the development of a preliminary stage-discharge relation using the discharge equation is given.

StreamStats: A water resources web application

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ries, Kernell G.; Guthrie, John G.; Rea, Alan H.; Steeves, Peter A.; Stewart, David W.

2008-01-01

Streamflow statistics, such as the 1-percent flood, the mean flow, and the 7-day 10-year low flow, are used by engineers, land managers, biologists, and many others to help guide decisions in their everyday work. For example, estimates of the 1-percent flood (the flow that is exceeded, on average, once in 100 years and has a 1-percent chance of being exceeded in any year, sometimes referred to as the 100-year flood) are used to create flood-plain maps that form the basis for setting insurance rates and land-use zoning. This and other streamflow statistics also are used for dam, bridge, and culvert design; water-supply planning and management; water-use appropriations and permitting; wastewater and industrial discharge permitting; hydropower facility design and regulation; and the setting of minimum required streamflows to protect freshwater ecosystems. In addition, researchers, planners, regulators, and others often need to know the physical and climatic characteristics of the drainage basins (basin characteristics) and the influence of human activities, such as dams and water withdrawals, on streamflow upstream from locations of interest to understand the mechanisms that control water availability and quality at those locations. Knowledge of the streamflow network and downstream human activities also is necessary to adequately determine whether an upstream activity, such as a water withdrawal, can be allowed without adversely affecting downstream activities.Streamflow statistics could be needed at any location along a stream. Most often, streamflow statistics are needed at ungaged sites, where no streamflow data are available to compute the statistics. At U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow data-collection stations, which include streamgaging stations, partial-record stations, and miscellaneous-measurement stations, streamflow statistics can be computed from available data for the stations. Streamflow data are collected continuously at streamgaging stations. Streamflow measurements are collected systematically over a period of years at partial-record stations to estimate peak-flow or low-flow statistics. Streamflow measurements usually are collected at miscellaneous-measurement stations for specific hydrologic studies with various objectives.StreamStats is a Web-based Geographic Information System (GIS) application that was created by the USGS, in cooperation with Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. (ESRI)1, to provide users with access to an assortment of analytical tools that are useful for water-resources planning and management. StreamStats functionality is based on ESRI’s ArcHydro Data Model and Tools, described on the Web at http://resources.arcgis.com/en/communities/hydro/01vn0000000s000000.htm. StreamStats allows users to easily obtain streamflow statistics, basin characteristics, and descriptive information for USGS data-collection stations and user-selected ungaged sites. It also allows users to identify stream reaches that are upstream and downstream from user-selected sites, and to identify and obtain information for locations along the streams where activities that may affect streamflow conditions are occurring. This functionality can be accessed through a map-based user interface that appears in the user’s Web browser, or individual functions can be requested remotely as Web services by other Web or desktop computer applications. StreamStats can perform these analyses much faster than historically used manual techniques.StreamStats was designed so that each state would be implemented as a separate application, with a reliance on local partnerships to fund the individual applications, and a goal of eventual full national implementation. Idaho became the first state to implement StreamStats in 2003. By mid-2008, 14 states had applications available to the public, and 18 other states were in various stages of implementation.

Exploring the link between meteorological drought and streamflow to inform water resource management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lennard, Amy; Macdonald, Neil; Hooke, Janet

2015-04-01

Drought indicators are an under-used metric in UK drought management. Standardised drought indicators offer a potential monitoring and management tool for operational water resource management. However, the use of these metrics needs further investigation. This work uses statistical analysis of the climatological drought signal based on meteorological drought indicators and observed streamflow data to explore the link between meteorological drought and hydrological drought to inform water resource management for a single water resource region. The region, covering 21,000 km2 of the English Midlands and central Wales, includes a variety of landscapes and climatological conditions. Analysis of the links between meteorological drought and hydrological drought performed using streamflow data from 'natural' catchments indicates a close positive relationship between meteorological drought indicators and streamflow, enhancing confidence in the application of drought indicators for monitoring and management. However, many of the catchments in the region are subject to modification through impoundments, abstractions and discharge. Therefore, it is beneficial to explore how climatological drought signal propagates into managed hydrological systems. Using a longitudinal study of catchments and sub-catchments that include natural and modified river reaches the relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought is explored. Initial statistical analysis of meteorological drought indicators and streamflow data from modified catchments shows a significantly weakened statistical relationship and reveals how anthropogenic activities may alter hydrological drought characteristics in modified catchments. Exploring how meteorological drought indicators link to streamflow across the water supply region helps build an understanding of their utility for operational water resource management.

Full-flow-regime storage-streamflow correlation patterns provide insights into hydrologic functioning over the continental US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Kuai; Shen, Chaopeng

2017-09-01

Interannual changes in low, median, and high regimes of streamflow have important implications for flood control, irrigation, and ecologic and human health. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites record global terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA), providing an opportunity to observe, interpret, and potentially utilize the complex relationships between storage and full-flow-regime streamflow. Here we show that utilizable storage-streamflow correlations exist throughout vastly different climates in the continental US (CONUS) across low- to high-flow regimes. A panoramic framework, the storage-streamflow correlation spectrum (SSCS), is proposed to examine macroscopic gradients in these relationships. SSCS helps form, corroborate or reject hypotheses about basin hydrologic behaviors. SSCS patterns vary greatly over CONUS with climate, land surface, and geologic conditions. Data mining analysis suggests that for catchments with hydrologic settings that favor storage over runoff, e.g., a large fraction of precipitation as snow, thick and highly-permeable permeable soil, SSCS values tend to be high. Based on our results, we form the hypotheses that groundwater flow dominates streamflows in Southeastern CONUS and Great Plains, while thin soils in a belt along the Appalachian Plateau impose alimit on water storage. SSCS also suggests shallow water table caused by high-bulk density soil and flat terrain induces rapid runoff in several regions. Our results highlight the importance of subsurface properties and groundwater flow in capturing flood and drought. We propose that SSCS can be used as a fundamental hydrologic signature to constrain models and to provide insights thatlead usto better understand hydrologic functioning.

Summary of hydrologic modeling for the Delaware River Basin using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williamson, Tanja N.; Lant, Jeremiah G.; Claggett, Peter; Nystrom, Elizabeth A.; Milly, Paul C.D.; Nelson, Hugh L.; Hoffman, Scott A.; Colarullo, Susan J.; Fischer, Jeffrey M.

2015-11-18

The Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) is a decision support system for the nontidal part of the Delaware River Basin that provides a consistent and objective method of simulating streamflow under historical, forecasted, and managed conditions. In order to quantify the uncertainty associated with these simulations, however, streamflow and the associated hydroclimatic variables of potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and snow accumulation and snowmelt must be simulated and compared to long-term, daily observations from sites. This report details model development and optimization, statistical evaluation of simulations for 57 basins ranging from 2 to 930 km2 and 11.0 to 99.5 percent forested cover, and how this statistical evaluation of daily streamflow relates to simulating environmental changes and management decisions that are best examined at monthly time steps normalized over multiple decades. The decision support system provides a database of historical spatial and climatic data for simulating streamflow for 2001–11, in addition to land-cover and general circulation model forecasts that focus on 2030 and 2060. WATER integrates geospatial sampling of landscape characteristics, including topographic and soil properties, with a regionally calibrated hillslope-hydrology model, an impervious-surface model, and hydroclimatic models that were parameterized by using three hydrologic response units: forested, agricultural, and developed land cover. This integration enables the regional hydrologic modeling approach used in WATER without requiring site-specific optimization or those stationary conditions inferred when using a statistical model.

Incorporating climate change projections into riparian restoration planning and design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Laura G.; Reynolds, Lindsay V.; Beechie, Timothy J.; Collins, Mathias J.; Shafroth, Patrick B.

2015-01-01

Climate change and associated changes in streamflow may alter riparian habitats substantially in coming decades. Riparian restoration provides opportunities to respond proactively to projected climate change effects, increase riparian ecosystem resilience to climate change, and simultaneously address effects of both climate change and other human disturbances. However, climate change may alter which restoration methods are most effective and which restoration goals can be achieved. Incorporating climate change into riparian restoration planning and design is critical to long-term restoration of desired community composition and ecosystem services. In this review, we discuss and provide examples of how climate change might be incorporated into restoration planning at the key stages of assessing the project context, establishing restoration goals and design criteria, evaluating design alternatives, and monitoring restoration outcomes. Restoration planners have access to numerous tools to predict future climate, streamflow, and riparian ecology at restoration sites. Planners can use those predictions to assess which species or ecosystem services will be most vulnerable under future conditions, and which sites will be most suitable for restoration. To accommodate future climate and streamflow change, planners may need to adjust methods for planting, invasive species control, channel and floodplain reconstruction, and water management. Given the considerable uncertainty in future climate and streamflow projections, riparian ecological responses, and effects on restoration outcomes, planners will need to consider multiple potential future scenarios, implement a variety of restoration methods, design projects with flexibility to adjust to future conditions, and plan to respond adaptively to unexpected change.

Hydrogeology and Simulation of Groundwater Flow in the Plymouth-Carver-Kingston-Duxbury Aquifer System, Southeastern Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Masterson, John P.; Carlson, Carl S.; Walter, Donald A.; Other contributing authors: Bent, Gardner C.; Massey, Andrew J.

2009-01-01

The glacial sediments that underlie the Plymouth-Carver-Kingston-Duxbury area of southeastern Massachusetts compose an important aquifer system that is the primary source of water for a region undergoing rapid development. Population increases and land-use changes in this area has led to two primary environmental effects that relate directly to groundwater resources: (1) increases in pumping that can adversely affect environmentally sensitive groundwater-fed surface waters, such as ponds, streams, and wetlands; and (2) adverse effects of land use on the quality of water in the aquifer. In response to these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, began an investigation in 2005 to improve the understanding of the hydrogeology in the area and to assess the effects of changing pumping and recharge conditions on groundwater flow in the Plymouth-Carver-Kingston-Duxbury aquifer system. A numerical flow model was developed based on the USGS computer program MODFLOW-2000 to assist in the analysis of groundwater flow. Model simulations were used to determine water budgets, flow directions, and the sources of water to pumping wells, ponds, streams, and coastal areas. Model-calculated water budgets indicate that approximately 298 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) of water recharges the Plymouth-Carver-Kingston-Duxbury aquifer system. Most of this water (about 70 percent) moves through the aquifer, discharges to streams, and then reaches the coast as surface-water discharge. Of the remaining 30 percent of flow, about 25 percent of the water that enters the aquifer as recharge discharges directly to coastal areas and 5 percent discharges to pumping wells. Groundwater withdrawals are anticipated to increase from the current (2005) rate of about 14 Mgal/d to about 21 Mgal/d by 2030. Pumping from large-capacity production wells decreases water levels and increases the potential for effects on surface-water bodies, which are affected by pumping and wastewater disposal locations and rates. Pumping wells that are upgradient of surface-water bodies potentially capture water that would otherwise discharge to these surface-water bodies, thereby reducing streamflow and pond levels. The areas most affected by proposed increases in groundwater withdrawals are in the Towns of Plymouth and Wareham where more than half of the proposed increase in pumping will occur. In response to an increase of about 7 Mgal/d of pumping, groundwater discharge to streams is reduced by about 6 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) (about 4 Mgal/d) from a total of about 325 ft3/s. Reduction in streamflow is moderated by an increase of artificial recharge from wastewater returned to the aquifer by onsite domestic septic systems and centralized wastewater treatment facilities. It is anticipated that about 3 Mgal/d of the 7 Mgal/d of increase in pumped water will be returned to the aquifer as wastewater by 2030. Currently (2005) about 3 percent of groundwater discharge to streams is from wastewater return flow to the aquifer during average conditions. During drought conditions, the component of streamflow augmented by wastewater return flow doubles as wastewater recharge remains constant and aquifer recharge rates decrease. Wastewater return flow, whether as direct groundwater discharge to streams or as an additional source of aquifer recharge, increases the height of the water table near streams, thereby moderating the effects of increased groundwater withdrawals on streamflow. An analysis of a simulated drought similar to the 1960s drought of record indicates that the presence of streams moderates the effects on water levels of reduced aquifer recharge. The area where water-table altitudes were least affected by drought was in the Weweantic River watershed in the Town of Carver. Water levels decreased by less than 2 feet from current average conditions compared to decreases of greater than 5

Rainfall, Streamflow, and Water-Quality Data During Stormwater Monitoring, Halawa Stream Drainage Basin, Oahu, Hawaii, July 1, 2000 to June 30, 2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Presley, Todd K.

2001-01-01

The State of Hawaii Department of Transportation Stormwater Monitoring Program was implemented on January 1, 2001. The program includes the collection of rainfall, streamflow, and water-quality data at selected sites in the Halawa Stream drainage basin. Rainfall and streamflow data were collected from July 1, 2000 to June 30, 2001. Few storms during the year met criteria for antecedent dry conditions or provided enough runoff to sample. The storm of June 5, 2001 was sufficiently large to cause runoff. On June 5, 2001, grab samples were collected at five sites along North Halawa and Halawa Streams. The five samples were later analyzed for nutrients, trace metals, oil and grease, total petroleum hydrocarbons, fecal coliform, biological and chemical oxygen demands, total suspended solids, and total dissolved solids.

Understanding and managing the effects of groundwater pumping on streamflow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leake, Stanley A.; Barlow, Paul M.

2013-01-01

Groundwater is a critical resource in the United States because it provides drinking water, irrigates crops, supports industry, and is a source of water for rivers, streams, lakes, and springs. Wells that pump water out of aquifers can reduce the amount of groundwater that flows into rivers and streams, which can have detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems and the availability of surface water. Estimation of rates, locations, and timing of streamflow depletion due to groundwater pumping is needed for water-resource managers and users throughout the United States, but the complexity of groundwater and surface-water systems and their interactions presents a major challenge. The understanding of streamflow depletion and evaluation of water-management practices have improved during recent years through the use of computer models that simulate aquifer conditions and the effects of pumping groundwater on streams.

Streamflow model of Wisconsin River for estimating flood frequency and volume

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krug, William R.; House, Leo B.

1980-01-01

The 100-year flood peak at Wisconsin Dells, computed from the simulated, regulated streamflow data for the period 1915-76, is 82,000 cubic feet per second, including the effects of all the reservoirs in the river system, as they are currently operated. It also includes the effects of Lakes Du Bay, Petenwell, and Castle Rock which are significant for spring floods but are insignificant for summer or fall floods because they are normally maintained nearly full in the summer and fall and have very little storage for floodwaters. (USGS)

Long-Term Interactions of Streamflow Generation and River Basin Morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, X.; Niemann, J.

2005-12-01

It is well known that the spatial patterns and dynamics of streamflow generation processes depend on river basin topography, but the impact of streamflow generation processes on the long-term evolution of river basins has not drawn as much attention. Fluvial erosion processes are driven by streamflow, which can be produced by Horton runoff, Dunne runoff, and groundwater discharge. In this analysis, we hypothesize that the dominant streamflow generation process in a basin affects the spatial patterns of fluvial erosion and that the nature of these patterns changes for storm events with differing return periods. Furthermore, we hypothesize that differences in the erosion patterns modify the topography over the long term in a way that promotes and/or inhibits the other streamflow generation mechanisms. In order to test these hypotheses, a detailed hydrologic model is imbedded into an existing landscape evolution model. Precipitation events are simulated with a Poisson process and have random intensities and durations. The precipitation is partitioned between Horton runoff and infiltration to groundwater using a specified infiltration capacity. Groundwater flow is described by a two-dimensional Dupuit equation for a homogeneous, isotropic, unconfined aquifer with an irregular underlying impervious layer. Dunne runoff occurs when precipitation falls on locations where the water table reaches the land surface. The combined hydrologic/geomorphic model is applied to the WE-38 basin, an experimental watershed in Pennsylvania that has substantial available hydrologic data. First, the hydrologic model is calibrated to reproduce the observed streamflow for 1990 using the observed rainfall as the input. Then, the relative roles of Horton runoff, Dunne runoff, and groundwater discharge are controlled by varying the infiltration capacity of the soil. For each infiltration capacity, the hydrologic and geomorphic behavior of the current topography is analyzed and the long-term evolution of the basin is simulated. The results indicate that the topography can be divided into three types of locations (unsaturated, saturated, and intermittently saturated) which control the patterns of streamflow generation for events with different return periods. The results also indicate that the streamflow generation processes can produce different geomorphic effective events at upstream and downstream locations. The model also suggests that a topography dominated by groundwater discharge evolves over a long period of time to a shape that tends to inhibit the development of saturated areas and Dunne runoff.

Post-processing of multi-hydrologic model simulations for improved streamflow projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

khajehei, sepideh; Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid

2016-04-01

Hydrologic model outputs are prone to bias and uncertainty due to knowledge deficiency in model and data. Uncertainty in hydroclimatic projections arises due to uncertainty in hydrologic model as well as the epistemic or aleatory uncertainties in GCM parameterization and development. This study is conducted to: 1) evaluate the recently developed multi-variate post-processing method for historical simulations and 2) assess the effect of post-processing on uncertainty and reliability of future streamflow projections in both high-flow and low-flow conditions. The first objective is performed for historical period of 1970-1999. Future streamflow projections are generated for 10 statistically downscaled GCMs from two widely used downscaling methods: Bias Corrected Statistically Downscaled (BCSD) and Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA), over the period of 2010-2099 for two representative concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Three semi-distributed hydrologic models were employed and calibrated at 1/16 degree latitude-longitude resolution for over 100 points across the Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the pacific northwest USA. Streamflow outputs are post-processed through a Bayesian framework based on copula functions. The post-processing approach is relying on a transfer function developed based on bivariate joint distribution between the observation and simulation in historical period. Results show that application of post-processing technique leads to considerably higher accuracy in historical simulations and also reducing model uncertainty in future streamflow projections.

Numerical simulation of groundwater flow, resource optimization, and potential effects of prolonged drought for the Citizen Potawatomi Nation Tribal Jurisdictional Area, central Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryter, Derek W.; Kunkel, Christopher D.; Peterson, Steven M.; Traylor, Jonathan P.

2015-08-13

The hypothetical decrease in recharge during the simulated drought caused groundwater in storage over the entire model in the study area to decrease by 361,500 acre-feet (14,100 acre-feet in the North Canadian River alluvial aquifer and 347,400 acre-feet in the Central Oklahoma aquifer), or approximately 0.2 percent of the total groundwater in storage over the drought period. This small percentage of groundwater loss showed that the Central Oklahoma aquifer as a bedrock aquifer has relatively low rates of recharge from the surface relative to the approximate storage. The budget for base flow to the North Canadian River indicated that the change in groundwater flow to the North Canadian River decreased during the 10-year drought by 386,500 acre-feet, or 37 percent. In all other parts of the Citizen Potawatomi Nation Tribal Jurisdictional Area, base flow decreased by 292,000 acre-feet, or 28 percent. Streamflow in the North Canadian River at the streamflow-gaging station at Shawnee, Okla., decreased during the hypothetical drought by as much as 28 percent, and the mean change in streamflow decreased as much as 16 percent. Streamflow at the Shawnee streamflow-gaging station did not recover to nondrought conditions until about 3 years after the simulated drought ended, during the relatively wet year of 2007.

Retrospective evaluation of continental-scale streamflow nudging with WRF-Hydro National Water Model V1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCreight, J. L.; Wu, Y.; Gochis, D.; Rafieeinasab, A.; Dugger, A. L.; Yu, W.; Cosgrove, B.; Cui, Z.; Oubeidillah, A.; Briar, D.

2016-12-01

The streamflow (discharge) data assimilation capability in version 1 of the National Water Model (NWM; a WRF-Hydro configuration) is applied and evaluated in a 5-year (2011-2015) retrospective study using NLDAS2 forcing data over CONUS. This talk will describe the NWM V1 operational nudging (continuous-time) streamflow data assimilation approach, its motivation, and its relationship to this retrospective evaluation. Results from this study will provide a an analysis-based (not forecast-based) benchmark for streamflow DA in the NWM. The goal of the assimilation is to reduce discharge bias and improve channel initial conditions for discharge forecasting (though forecasts are not considered here). The nudging method assimilates discharge observations at nearly 7,000 USGS gages (at frequency up to 1/15 minutes) to produce a (univariate) discharge reanalysis (i.e. this is the only variable affected by the assimilation). By withholding 14% nested gages throughout CONUS in a separate validation run, we evaluate the downstream impact of assimilation at upstream gages. Based on this sample, we estimate the skill of the streamflow reanalysis at ungaged locations and examine factors governing the skill of the assimilation. Comparison of assimilation and open-loop runs is presented. Performance of DA under both high and low flow regimes and selected flooding events is examined. Preliminary evaluation of nudging parameter sensitivity and its relationship to flow regime will be presented.

Streamflow loss quantification for groundwater flow modeling using a wading-rod-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler in a headwater stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pflügl, Christian; Hoehn, Philipp; Hofmann, Thilo

2017-04-01

Irrespective of the availability of various field measurement and modeling approaches, the quantification of interactions between surface water and groundwater systems remains associated with high uncertainty. Such uncertainties on stream-aquifer interaction have a high potential to misinterpret the local water budget and water quality significantly. Due to typically considerable temporal variation of stream discharge rates, it is desirable for the measurement of streamflow to reduce the measuring duration while reducing uncertainty. Streamflow measurements, according to the velocity-area method, have been performed along reaches of a losing-disconnected, subalpine headwater stream using a 2-dimensional, wading-rod-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP). The method was chosen, with stream morphology not allowing for boat-mounted setups, to reduce uncertainty compared to conventional, single-point streamflow measurements of similar measurement duration. Reach-averaged stream loss rates were subsequently quantified between 12 cross sections. They enabled the delineation of strongly infiltrating stream reaches and their differentiation from insignificantly infiltrating reaches. Furthermore, a total of 10 near-stream observation wells were constructed and/or equipped with pressure and temperature loggers. The time series of near-stream groundwater temperature data were cross-correlated with stream temperature time series to yield supportive qualitative information on the delineation of infiltrating reaches. Subsequently, as a reference parameterization, the hydraulic conductivity and specific yield of a numerical, steady-state model of groundwater flow, in the unconfined glaciofluvial aquifer adjacent to the stream, were inversely determined incorporating the inferred stream loss rates. Applying synthetic sets of infiltration rates, resembling increasing levels of uncertainty associated with single-point streamflow measurements of comparable duration, the same inversion procedure was run. The volume-weighted mean of the respective parameter distribution within 200 m of stream periphery deviated increasingly from the reference parameterization at increasing deviation of infiltration rates.

Overview of hydro-acoustic current-measurement applications by the U.S. geological survey in Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morlock, Scott E.; Stewart, James A.

1999-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) maintains a network of 170 streamflow-gaging stations in Indiana to collect data from which continuous records of river discharges are produced. Traditionally, the discharge record from a station is produced by recording river stage and making periodic discharge measurements through a range of stage, then developing a relation between stage and discharge. Techniques that promise to increase data collection accuracy and efficiency include the use of hydro-acoustic instrumentation to measure river velocities. The velocity measurements are used to compute river discharge. In-situ applications of hydro-acoustic instruments by the USGS in Indiana include acoustic velocity meters (AVM's) at six streamflow-gaging stations and newly developed Doppler velocity meters (DVM's) at two stations. AVM's use reciprocal travel times of acoustic signals to measure average water velocities along acoustic paths, whereas DVM's use the Doppler shift of backscattered acoustic signals to compute water velocities. In addition to the in-situ applications, three acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCP's) are used to make river-discharge measurements from moving boats at streamflow-gaging stations in Indiana. The USGS has designed and is testing an innovative unmanned platform from which to make ADCP discharge measurements.

Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathiraja, Sahani; Anghileri, Daniela; Burlando, Paolo; Sharma, Ashish; Marshall, Lucy; Moradkhani, Hamid

2018-05-01

Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2) in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD) that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors) contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

Objective Use of Climate Indices to Inform Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts in the Columbia River Basin - An Initial Review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pytlak, E.; McManamon, A.; Hughes, S. P.; Van Der Zweep, R. A.; Butcher, P.; Karafotias, C.; Beckers, J.; Welles, E.

2016-12-01

Numerous studies have documented the impacts that large scale weather patterns and climate phenomenon like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific-North American (PNA) Pattern, and others can have on seasonal temperature and precipitation in the Columbia River Basin (CRB). While far from perfect in terms of seasonal predictability in specific locations, these intra-annual weather and climate signal do tilt the odds toward different temperature and precipitation outcomes, which in turn can have impacts on seasonal snowpacks, streamflows and water supply in large river basins like the CRB. We hypothesize that intraseasonal climate signals and long wave jet stream patterns can be objectively incorporated into what it is otherwise a climatology-based set of Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts, and can increase the predictive skill and utility of these forecasts used for mid-range hydropower planning. The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) and Deltares have developed a subsampling-resampling method to incorporate climate mode information into the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) forecasts (Beckers, et al., 2016). Since 2015, BPA and Deltares USA have experimented with this method in pre-operational use, using five objective multivariate climate indices that appear to have the greatest predictive value for seasonal temperature and precipitation in the CRB. The indices are used to objectively select historical weather from about twenty analog years in the 66-year (1949-2015) historical ESP set. These twenty scenarios then serve as the starting point to generate monthly synthetic weather and streamflow time series to return to a set of 66 streamflow traces. Our poster will share initial results from the 2015 and 2016 water years, which included large swings in the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, persistent blocking jet stream patterns, and the development of a strong El Niño event. While the results are very preliminary and for only two seasons, there may be some value in incorporating objectively-identified climate signals into ESP-based streamflow forecasts.Beckers, J. V. L., Weerts, A. H., Tijdeman, E., and Welles, E.: ENSO-Conditioned Weather Resampling Method for Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Prediction, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-72, in review, 2016.

Simulation of daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christiansen, Daniel E.; Haj, Adel E.; Risley, John C.

2017-10-24

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, constructed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models to estimate daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa that drain into the Missouri River. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of streamflow and general drainage basin hydrology to various combinations of climate and land use. Calibration periods for each basin varied depending on the period of record available for daily mean streamflow measurements at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations.A geographic information system tool was used to delineate each basin and estimate initial values for model parameters based on basin physical and geographical features. A U.S. Geological Survey automatic calibration tool that uses a shuffled complex evolution algorithm was used for initial calibration, and then manual modifications were made to parameter values to complete the calibration of each basin model. The main objective of the calibration was to match daily discharge values of simulated streamflow to measured daily discharge values. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was calibrated at 42 sites located in the 12 river basins in western Iowa.The accuracy of the simulated daily streamflow values at the 42 calibration sites varied by river and by site. The models were satisfactory at 36 of the sites based on statistical results. Unsatisfactory performance at the six other sites can be attributed to several factors: (1) low flow, no flow, and flashy flow conditions in headwater subbasins having a small drainage area; (2) poor representation of the groundwater and storage components of flow within a basin; (3) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and water use; and (4) limited availability and accuracy of meteorological input data. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models of 12 river basins in western Iowa will provide water-resource managers with a consistent and documented method for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites and aid in environmental studies, hydraulic design, water management, and water-quality projects.

Water-resources investigations in Wisconsin, 1993

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maertz, D.E.

1993-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The objectives of this study are to provide continuous discharge records for selected rivers at specific sites to supply the needs for: regulation, analytical studies, definition of statistical properties, trends analysis, determination of the occurrence, and distribution of water in streams for planning. The project is also designed to determine lake levels and to provide discharge for floods, low-flow conditions, and for water-quality investigations. Requests for streamflow data and information relating to streamflow in Wisconsin are answered. Basic data are published annually in "Water Resources Data Wisconsin."

El Niño-southern oscillation influences on the Mahaweli streamflow in Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zubair, Lareef

2003-01-01

Despite advances over the last two decades in the capacity to predict the evolution of the El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and advances in understanding of the relationship between ENSO and climate, there has been little use of climate predictions for water resources management in the tropics. As part of an effort to develop such a prediction scheme, the ENSO influences on streamflow and rainfall in the upper catchment of the Mahaweli river in Sri Lanka were investigated with correlation analysis, composite analysis and contingency tables. El Niño conditions were often associated with decreased annual flows and La Niña with increased flows. The relationship of streamflow and rainfall with the ENSO index of NINO3 contrasted between January to September and October to December. During El Niño episodes the streamflow declines from January to September, but from October to December there is no clear relationship. On the other hand, rainfall shows a clear increase from October to December and declines during January, February, March, July and August. The simultaneous correlations of NINO3 with the aggregate January to September streamflow (r = -0.50), with January to September rainfall (r = -0.44) and with October to December rainfall (r = 0.48) are all significant at the 99% level. The correlation between one-season-in-advance NINO3 with both January to September streamflow and October to December rainfall remained significant at the 99% level.This study demonstrates the potential of using ENSO-based predictors for a seasonal hydro-climatic prediction scheme in the Mahaweli basin. It shows the significant contrasts in ENSO influence on rainfall and streamflow due to various hydrological processes. It has demonstrated that the potential for prediction is improved by investigating ENSO influences for the appropriate season for the given river catchment.

Impacts of uncertainties in weather and streamflow observations in calibration and evaluation of an elevation distributed HBV-model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engeland, K.; Steinsland, I.; Petersen-Øverleir, A.; Johansen, S.

2012-04-01

The aim of this study is to assess the uncertainties in streamflow simulations when uncertainties in both observed inputs (precipitation and temperature) and streamflow observations used in the calibration of the hydrological model are explicitly accounted for. To achieve this goal we applied the elevation distributed HBV model operating on daily time steps to a small catchment in high elevation in Southern Norway where the seasonal snow cover is important. The uncertainties in precipitation inputs were quantified using conditional simulation. This procedure accounts for the uncertainty related to the density of the precipitation network, but neglects uncertainties related to measurement bias/errors and eventual elevation gradients in precipitation. The uncertainties in temperature inputs were quantified using a Bayesian temperature interpolation procedure where the temperature lapse rate is re-estimated every day. The uncertainty in the lapse rate was accounted for whereas the sampling uncertainty related to network density was neglected. For every day a random sample of precipitation and temperature inputs were drawn to be applied as inputs to the hydrologic model. The uncertainties in observed streamflow were assessed based on the uncertainties in the rating curve model. A Bayesian procedure was applied to estimate the probability for rating curve models with 1 to 3 segments and the uncertainties in their parameters. This method neglects uncertainties related to errors in observed water levels. Note that one rating curve was drawn to make one realisation of a whole time series of streamflow, thus the rating curve errors lead to a systematic bias in the streamflow observations. All these uncertainty sources were linked together in both calibration and evaluation of the hydrologic model using a DREAM based MCMC routine. Effects of having less information (e.g. missing one streamflow measurement for defining the rating curve or missing one precipitation station) was also investigated.

A historical perspective on precipitation, drought severity, and streamflow in Texas during 1951-56 and 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winters, Karl E.

2013-01-01

Annual mean streamflow and streamflow-duration curves for the 1951–56 and 2011 water years were assessed for 19 unregulated U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations. At eight of these streamflow-gaging stations, the annual mean streamflow was lower in 2011 than for any year during 1951–56; many of these stations are located in eastern Texas. Annual mean streamflows for streamflow-gaging stations in the Guadalupe, Blanco, and upper Frio River Basins were lower in 1956 than in 2011. The streamflow-duration curves for many streamflow-gaging stations indicate a lack of (or diminished) storm runoff during 2011. Low streamflows (those exceeded 90 to 95 percent of days) were lower for 1956 than for 2011 at seven streamflow-gaging stations. For most of these stations, the lowest of the low streamflows during 1951–56 occurred in 1956. During March to September 2011, record daily lows were measured at USGS streamflow-gaging station 08041500 Village Creek near Kountze, Tex., which has more than 70 years of record. Many other USGS streamflow-gaging stations in Texas started the 2011 water year with normal streamflow but by the end of the water year were flowing at near-record lows.

Stream Width Dynamics in a Small Headwater Catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barefoot, E. A.; Pavelsky, T.; Allen, G. H.; Zimmer, M. A.; McGlynn, B. L.

2016-12-01

Changing streamflow conditions cause small, ephemeral and intermittent stream networks to expand and contract, while simultaneously driving widening and narrowing of streams. The resulting dynamic surface area of ephemeral streams impacts critical hydrological and biogeochemical processes, including air-water gas exchange, solute transport, and sediment transport. Despite the importance of these dynamics, to our knowledge there exists no complete study of how stream widths vary throughout an entire catchment in response to changing streamflow conditions. Here we present the first characterization of how variable hydrologic conditions impact the distribution of stream widths in a 48 ha headwater catchment in the Stony Creek Research Watershed, NC, USA. We surveyed stream widths longitudinally every 5 m on 12 occasions over a range of stream discharge from 7 L/s to 128 L/s at the catchment outlet. We hypothesize that the shape and location of the stream width distribution are driven by the action of two interrelated mechanisms, network extension and at-a-station widening, both of which increase with discharge. We observe that during very low flow conditions, network extension more significantly influences distribution location, and during high flow conditions stream widening is the dominant driver. During moderate flows, we observe an approximately 1 cm rightward shift in the distribution peak with every additional 10 L/s of increased discharge, which we attribute to a greater impact of at-a-station widening on distribution location. Aside from this small shift, the qualitative location and shape of the stream width distribution are largely invariant with changing streamflow. We suggest that the basic characteristics of stream width distributions constitute an equilibrium between the two described mechanisms across variable hydrologic conditions.

Climate, streamflow, and legacy effects on growth of riparian Populus angustifolia in the arid San Luis Valley, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andersen, Douglas

2016-01-01

Knowledge of the factors affecting the vigor of desert riparian trees is important for their conservation and management. I used multiple regression to assess effects of streamflow and climate (12–14 years of data) or climate alone (up to 60 years of data) on radial growth of clonal narrowleaf cottonwood (Populus angustifolia), a foundation species in the arid, Closed Basin portion of the San Luis Valley, Colorado. I collected increment cores from trees (14–90 cm DBH) at four sites along each of Sand and Deadman creeks (total N = 85), including both perennial and ephemeral reaches. Analyses on trees <110 m from the stream channel explained 33–64% of the variation in standardized growth index (SGI) over the period having discharge measurements. Only 3 of 7 models included a streamflow variable; inclusion of prior-year conditions was common. Models for trees farther from the channel or over a deep water table explained 23–71% of SGI variability, and 4 of 5 contained a streamflow variable. Analyses using solely climate variables over longer time periods explained 17–85% of SGI variability, and 10 of 12 included a variable indexing summer precipitation. Three large, abrupt shifts in recent decades from wet to dry conditions (indexed by a seasonal Palmer Drought Severity Index) coincided with dramatically reduced radial growth. Each shift was presumably associated with branch dieback that produced a legacy effect apparent in many SGI series: uncharacteristically low SGI in the year following the shift. My results suggest trees in locations distant from the active channel rely on the regional shallow unconfined aquifer, summer rainfall, or both to meet water demands. The landscape-level differences in the water supplies sustaining these trees imply variable effects from shifts in winter-versus monsoon-related precipitation, and from climate change versus streamflow or groundwater management.

Identifying streamflow shifts induced by wildfires in mountain basins under summer precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spade, D. M.; Moreno, H. A.; Gourley, J. J.

2016-12-01

High severity wildfires drastically alter the hydrologic response in headwater catchments, as a consequence of reductions in vegetation cover and modifications of soil hydraulic properties. These changes lead to an increased probability of flash-floods in steep-slope mountain watersheds. This study investigates the changes in hydrologic response for post-fire conditions at two burned basins in Colorado as observed from time series of streamflow, precipitation and remotely sensed vegetation density. We examine the event and seasonal hydrologic shifts as a function of vegetation cover which is measured by the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). First, we compare flow duration curves of 15-min streamflows pre and post fire. Subsequently, we study the event scale changes induced by wildfire as measured by the runoff coefficient (RC), response time (RT) and peak flow (Qpk). At the seasonal scale we explore the yearly evolution of runoff coefficient and peak flow and their relationship with a normalized EVI (NEVI) to identify a recovery hysteresis pathway. Our findings support the idea that for similar burned areas relative to total basin surface, forested watersheds evidence the largest streamflow changes. Flow duration curves depict significant post-fire increases in the high-range streamflows (low probability of exceedence) on the order of 1900% in forested and 500% in shrubland dominated basins with respect to pre-fire conditions. For a similar-precipitation and antecedent soil moisture, burned watersheds significantly showed a decrease in response time and increase in runoff coefficient relative to pre-fire for two isolated hydrologic events. At the seasonal scale, the expected increase in NEVI translates into increases in RC and Qpk with a hysteresis effect driven by vegetation recovery, precipitation volumes and antecedent soil moisture. This study provides new insights to understand the physical processes triggered by fire that influence watershed responses and increase flash-flooding risks.

The role of mountain precipitation as a drought buffer in Puerto Rico: Assessing natural systems' resilience to change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scholl, M. A.; Clark, K. E.; Van Beusekom, A.; Shanley, J. B.; Torres-Sanchez, A.; Murphy, S. F.; Gonzalez, G.

2017-12-01

Like many island and coastal areas, the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico receive orographic precipitation (rain and cloud water), maintaining headwater streamflow and allowing diverse forest ecosystems to thrive. Although rainfall from regional-scale convective systems is greater in volume, multiple lines of evidence (stable isotope tracers; precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity; cloud immersion; regional cloud dynamics; weather analysis) show that trade-wind orographic precipitation contributes significantly to streamflow, soil water, and shallow groundwater. Ceilometer data and time-lapse photography of cloud-immersed conditions at the mountain indicated a seasonally invariant, sustained overnight regime of cloud water precipitation, in addition to the abundant rainfall in the mountains. Rising ocean temperatures and a warming tropical climate lead to questions about persistence of the trade-wind associated orographic precipitation and the resilience of similar mountain ecosystems to change. Projections for Caribbean climate change include amplification of trade winds; less frequent, more intense large convective systems; and a warming ocean. These may have opposing effects on mountain precipitation, increasing uncertainty about processes that mitigate drought. Field studies provide insights regarding these questions. Ceilometer and satellite observations showed cloud base is higher over the mountains than in the surrounding Caribbean region; with the trade-wind inversion cap, further rise in cloud base may produce shallower clouds and reduced precipitation. We analyzed the February-October 2015 drought, characterized by strong El Niño conditions, an absence of tropical storm systems, and reduced convection in easterly waves. Combined δ2H, δ18O and d-excess signatures of streamflow indicated precipitation was derived from shallow convective systems, trade-wind showers and cloud water. During severe drought on the island, streamflow-sustaining rainfall at the mountain station at 640 m persisted, albeit with 19% lower frequency and 52% fewer large (>10 mm) rain events than the 20-year average. Clearly, resilience of the mountain forest ecosystem and of streamflow to drought periods depends on orographic precipitation.

Cumulative uncertainty in measured streamflow and water quality data for small watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harmel, R.D.; Cooper, R.J.; Slade, R.M.; Haney, R.L.; Arnold, J.G.

2006-01-01

The scientific community has not established an adequate understanding of the uncertainty inherent in measured water quality data, which is introduced by four procedural categories: streamflow measurement, sample collection, sample preservation/storage, and laboratory analysis. Although previous research has produced valuable information on relative differences in procedures within these categories, little information is available that compares the procedural categories or presents the cumulative uncertainty in resulting water quality data. As a result, quality control emphasis is often misdirected, and data uncertainty is typically either ignored or accounted for with an arbitrary margin of safety. Faced with the need for scientifically defensible estimates of data uncertainty to support water resource management, the objectives of this research were to: (1) compile selected published information on uncertainty related to measured streamflow and water quality data for small watersheds, (2) use a root mean square error propagation method to compare the uncertainty introduced by each procedural category, and (3) use the error propagation method to determine the cumulative probable uncertainty in measured streamflow, sediment, and nutrient data. Best case, typical, and worst case "data quality" scenarios were examined. Averaged across all constituents, the calculated cumulative probable uncertainty (??%) contributed under typical scenarios ranged from 6% to 19% for streamflow measurement, from 4% to 48% for sample collection, from 2% to 16% for sample preservation/storage, and from 5% to 21% for laboratory analysis. Under typical conditions, errors in storm loads ranged from 8% to 104% for dissolved nutrients, from 8% to 110% for total N and P, and from 7% to 53% for TSS. Results indicated that uncertainty can increase substantially under poor measurement conditions and limited quality control effort. This research provides introductory scientific estimates of uncertainty in measured water quality data. The results and procedures presented should also assist modelers in quantifying the "quality"of calibration and evaluation data sets, determining model accuracy goals, and evaluating model performance.

United States streamflow probabilities and uncertainties based on anticipated El Niño, water year 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.; Cayan, D.; Redmond, K.

2002-01-01

During the course of spring and summer 2002, tropical sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean have warmed and the wind and pressure fields have shifted, so that by August, there was considerable confidence that water year (October–September) 2003 will be characterized by a weak to mild El Niño climate (http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/archive/200208/QuickLook.html). At the same time, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation pattern of sea-surface temperatures in the North Pacific (Mantua et al., 1997) has shifted towards a more neutral state than in the past several years and will not be considered in detail here. Previous studies of the connections between El Niños and streamflow in the United States by the authors (e.g., Redmond and Koch, 1991; Cayan and Webb, 1992; Cayan et al., 1999; Dettinger et al., 2001) indicate that El Niño conditions influence historical streamflow distributions to varying extents. These conclusions, along with those of other researchers, suggest that foreknowledge of El Niño conditions can inform seasonal outlooks for streamflows throughout the Americas and elsewhere. For example, Dettinger et al. (2001), as distilled here into Fig. 1, showed that historical annual streamflow totals have correlated negatively with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI, which is negatively associated with El Niños) in the U.S. Southwest as well as in the subtropics of South America, and correlate positively in the U.S. Northwest, in much of tropical South America, and, perhaps, in southernmost South America. These interhemispheric bands of El Niño influence are a matter of considerable concern for water- and land-managers throughout the Americas, and expand upon results from previous studies in the western United States (e.g., Redmond and Koch, 1991; Cayan and Webb, 1992), including a recent analysis by Pizarro and Lall (2002), where water availability and hydrologic extremes are particularly pressing issues.

Practical implementation of a particle filter data assimilation approach to estimate initial hydrologic conditions and initialize medium-range streamflow forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Elizabeth; Wood, Andy; Nijssen, Bart; Mendoza, Pablo; Newman, Andy; Nowak, Kenneth; Arnold, Jeffrey

2017-04-01

In an automated forecast system, hydrologic data assimilation (DA) performs the valuable function of correcting raw simulated watershed model states to better represent external observations, including measurements of streamflow, snow, soil moisture, and the like. Yet the incorporation of automated DA into operational forecasting systems has been a long-standing challenge due to the complexities of the hydrologic system, which include numerous lags between state and output variations. To help demonstrate that such methods can succeed in operational automated implementations, we present results from the real-time application of an ensemble particle filter (PF) for short-range (7 day lead) ensemble flow forecasts in western US river basins. We use the System for Hydromet Applications, Research and Prediction (SHARP), developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in collaboration with the University of Washington, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. SHARP is a fully automated platform for short-term to seasonal hydrologic forecasting applications, incorporating uncertainty in initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs) and in hydrometeorological predictions through ensemble methods. In this implementation, IHC uncertainty is estimated by propagating an ensemble of 100 temperature and precipitation time series through conceptual and physically-oriented models. The resulting ensemble of derived IHCs exhibits a broad range of possible soil moisture and snow water equivalent (SWE) states. The PF selects and/or weights and resamples the IHCs that are most consistent with external streamflow observations, and uses the particles to initialize a streamflow forecast ensemble driven by ensemble precipitation and temperature forecasts downscaled from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). We apply this method in real-time for several basins in the western US that are important for water resources management, and perform a hindcast experiment to evaluate the utility of PF-based data assimilation on streamflow forecasts skill. This presentation describes findings, including a comparison of sequential and non-sequential particle weighting methods.

Living with a large reduction in permited loading by using a hydrograph-controlled release scheme

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conrads, P.A.; Martello, W.P.; Sullins, N.R.

2003-01-01

The Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for ammonia and biochemical oxygen demand for the Pee Dee, Waccamaw, and Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway system near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, mandated a 60-percent reduction in point-source loading. For waters with a naturally low background dissolved-oxygen concentrations, South Carolina anti-degradation rules in the water-quality regulations allows a permitted discharger a reduction of dissolved oxygen of 0.1 milligrams per liter (mg/L). This is known as the "0.1 rule." Permitted dischargers within this region of the State operate under the "0.1 rule" and cannot cause a cumulative impact greater than 0.1 mg/L on dissolved-oxygen concentrations. For municipal water-reclamation facilities to serve the rapidly growing resort and retirement community near Myrtle Beach, a variable loading scheme was developed to allow dischargers to utilize increased assimilative capacity during higher streamflow conditions while still meeting the requirements of a recently established TMDL. As part of the TMDL development, an extensive real-time data-collection network was established in the lower Waccamaw and Pee Dee River watershed where continuous measurements of streamflow, water level, dissolved oxygen, temperature, and specific conductance are collected. In addition, the dynamic BRANCH/BLTM models were calibrated and validated to simulate the water quality and tidal dynamics of the system. The assimilative capacities for various streamflows were also analyzed. The variable-loading scheme established total loadings for three streamflow levels. Model simulations show the results from the additional loading to be less than a 0.1 mg/L reduction in dissolved oxygen. As part of the loading scheme, the real-time network was redesigned to monitor streamflow entering the study area and water-quality conditions in the location of dissolved-oxygen "sags." The study reveals how one group of permit holders used a variable-loading scheme to implement restrictive permit limits without experiencing prohibitive capital expenditures or initiating a lengthy appeals process.

Practical implementation of a particle filter data assimilation approach to estimate initial hydrologic conditions and initialize medium-range streamflow forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, E.; Wood, A.; Nijssen, B.; Newman, A. J.; Mendoza, P. A.

2016-12-01

The System for Hydrometeorological Applications, Research and Prediction (SHARP), developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), University of Washington, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, is a fully automated ensemble prediction system for short-term to seasonal applications. It incorporates uncertainty in initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs) and in hydrometeorological predictions. In this implementation, IHC uncertainty is estimated by propagating an ensemble of 100 plausible temperature and precipitation time series through the Sacramento/Snow-17 model. The forcing ensemble explicitly accounts for measurement and interpolation uncertainties in the development of gridded meteorological forcing time series. The resulting ensemble of derived IHCs exhibits a broad range of possible soil moisture and snow water equivalent (SWE) states. To select the IHCs that are most consistent with the observations, we employ a particle filter (PF) that weights IHC ensemble members based on observations of streamflow and SWE. These particles are then used to initialize ensemble precipitation and temperature forecasts downscaled from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), generating a streamflow forecast ensemble. We test this method in two basins in the Pacific Northwest that are important for water resources management: 1) the Green River upstream of Howard Hanson Dam, and 2) the South Fork Flathead River upstream of Hungry Horse Dam. The first of these is characterized by mixed snow and rain, while the second is snow-dominated. The PF-based forecasts are compared to forecasts based on a single IHC (corresponding to median streamflow) paired with the full GEFS ensemble, and 2) the full IHC ensemble, without filtering, paired with the full GEFS ensemble. In addition to assessing improvements in the spread of IHCs, we perform a hindcast experiment to evaluate the utility of PF-based data assimilation on streamflow forecasts at 1- to 7-day lead times.

Comparison of Strategies for Climate Change Adaptation of Water Supply and Flood Control Reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ng, T. L.; Yang, P.; Bhushan, R.

2016-12-01

With climate change, streamflows are expected to become more fluctuating, with more frequent and intense floods and droughts. This complicates reservoir operation, which is highly sensitive to inflow variability. We make a comparative evaluation of three strategies for adapting reservoirs to climate-induced shifts in streamflow patterns. Specifically, we examine the effectiveness of (i) expanding the capacities of reservoirs by way of new off-stream reservoirs, (ii) introducing wastewater reclamation to augment supplies, and (iii) improving real-time streamflow forecasts for more optimal decision-making. The first two are hard strategies involving major infrastructure modifications, while the third a soft strategy entailing adjusting the system operation. A comprehensive side-by-side comparison of the three strategies is as yet lacking in the literature despite the many past studies investigating the strategies individually. To this end, we developed an adaptive forward-looking linear program that solves to yield the optimal decisions for the current time as a function of an ensemble forecast of future streamflows. Solving the model repeatedly on a rolling basis with regular updating of the streamflow forecast simulates the system behavior over the entire operating horizon. Results are generated for two hypothetical water supply and flood control reservoirs of differing inflows and demands. Preliminary findings suggest that of the three strategies, improving streamflow forecasts to be most effective in mitigating the effects of climate change. We also found that, in average terms, both additional reservoir capacity and wastewater reclamation have potential to reduce water shortage and downstream flooding. However, in the worst case, the potential of the former to reduce water shortage is limited, and similarly so the potential of the latter to reduce downstream flooding.

Does model structure limit the use of satellite data as hydrologic forcing for distributed operational models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowman, A. L.; Franz, K.; Hogue, T. S.

2015-12-01

We are investigating the implications for use of satellite data in operational streamflow prediction. Specifically, the consequence of potential hydrologic model structure deficiencies on the ability to achieve improved forecast accuracy through the use of satellite data. We want to understand why advanced data do not lead to improved streamflow simulations by exploring how various fluxes and states differ among models of increasing complexity. In a series of prior studies, we investigated the use of a daily satellite-derived potential evapotranspiration (PET) estimate as input to the National Weather Service (NWS) streamflow forecast models for watersheds in the Upper Mississippi and Red river basins. Although the spatial PET product appears to represent the day-to-day variability in PET more realistically than current climatological methods used by the NWS, the impact of the satellite data on streamflow simulations results in slightly poorer model efficiency overall. Analysis of the model states indicates the model progresses differently between simulations with baseline PET and the satellite-derived PET input, though variation in streamflow simulations overall is negligible. For instance, the upper zone states, responsible for the high flows of a hydrograph, show a profound difference, while simulation of the peak flows tend to show little variation in the timing and magnitude. Using the spatial PET input, the lower zone states show improvement with simulating the recession limb and baseflow portion of the hydrograph. We anticipate that through a better understanding of the relationship between model structure, model states, and simulated streamflow we will be able to diagnose why simulations of discharge from the forecast model have failed to improve when provided seemingly more representative input data. Identifying model limitations are critical to demonstrating the full benefit of a satellite data for operational use.

QRev—Software for computation and quality assurance of acoustic doppler current profiler moving-boat streamflow measurements—Technical manual for version 2.8

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, David S.

2016-06-21

The software program, QRev applies common and consistent computational algorithms combined with automated filtering and quality assessment of the data to improve the quality and efficiency of streamflow measurements and helps ensure that U.S. Geological Survey streamflow measurements are consistent, accurate, and independent of the manufacturer of the instrument used to make the measurement. Software from different manufacturers uses different algorithms for various aspects of the data processing and discharge computation. The algorithms used by QRev to filter data, interpolate data, and compute discharge are documented and compared to the algorithms used in the manufacturers’ software. QRev applies consistent algorithms and creates a data structure that is independent of the data source. QRev saves an extensible markup language (XML) file that can be imported into databases or electronic field notes software. This report is the technical manual for version 2.8 of QRev.

A method for estimating peak and time of peak streamflow from excess rainfall for 10- to 640-acre watersheds in the Houston, Texas, metropolitan area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Cleveland, Theodore G.; Roussel, Meghan C.

2011-01-01

Estimates of peak and time of peak streamflow for small watersheds (less than about 640 acres) in a suburban to urban, low-slope setting are needed for drainage design that is cost-effective and risk-mitigated. During 2007-10, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Harris County Flood Control District and the Texas Department of Transportation, developed a method to estimate peak and time of peak streamflow from excess rainfall for 10- to 640-acre watersheds in the Houston, Texas, metropolitan area. To develop the method, 24 watersheds in the study area with drainage areas less than about 3.5 square miles (2,240 acres) and with concomitant rainfall and runoff data were selected. The method is based on conjunctive analysis of rainfall and runoff data in the context of the unit hydrograph method and the rational method. For the unit hydrograph analysis, a gamma distribution model of unit hydrograph shape (a gamma unit hydrograph) was chosen and parameters estimated through matching of modeled peak and time of peak streamflow to observed values on a storm-by-storm basis. Watershed mean or watershed-specific values of peak and time to peak ("time to peak" is a parameter of the gamma unit hydrograph and is distinct from "time of peak") of the gamma unit hydrograph were computed. Two regression equations to estimate peak and time to peak of the gamma unit hydrograph that are based on watershed characteristics of drainage area and basin-development factor (BDF) were developed. For the rational method analysis, a lag time (time-R), volumetric runoff coefficient, and runoff coefficient were computed on a storm-by-storm basis. Watershed-specific values of these three metrics were computed. A regression equation to estimate time-R based on drainage area and BDF was developed. Overall arithmetic means of volumetric runoff coefficient (0.41 dimensionless) and runoff coefficient (0.25 dimensionless) for the 24 watersheds were used to express the rational method in terms of excess rainfall (the excess rational method). Both the unit hydrograph method and excess rational method are shown to provide similar estimates of peak and time of peak streamflow. The results from the two methods can be combined by using arithmetic means. A nomograph is provided that shows the respective relations between the arithmetic-mean peak and time of peak streamflow to drainage areas ranging from 10 to 640 acres. The nomograph also shows the respective relations for selected BDF ranging from undeveloped to fully developed conditions. The nomograph represents the peak streamflow for 1 inch of excess rainfall based on drainage area and BDF; the peak streamflow for design storms from the nomograph can be multiplied by the excess rainfall to estimate peak streamflow. Time of peak streamflow is readily obtained from the nomograph. Therefore, given excess rainfall values derived from watershed-loss models, which are beyond the scope of this report, the nomograph represents a method for estimating peak and time of peak streamflow for applicable watersheds in the Houston metropolitan area. Lastly, analysis of the relative influence of BDF on peak streamflow is provided, and the results indicate a 0:04log10 cubic feet per second change of peak streamflow per positive unit of change in BDF. This relative change can be used to adjust peak streamflow from the method or other hydrologic methods for a given BDF to other BDF values; example computations are provided.

Streamflow characteristics based on data through water year 2009 for selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana: Chapter E in Montana StreamStats

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCarthy, Peter M.

2016-04-05

Chapter E of this Scientific Investigations Report documents results from a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Environmental Quality and the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, to provide an update of statewide streamflow characteristics based on data through water year 2009 for streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana. Streamflow characteristics are presented for 408 streamflow-gaging stations in Montana and adjacent areas having 10 or more years of record. Data include the magnitude and probability of annual low and high streamflow, the magnitude and probability of low streamflow for three seasons (March–June, July–October, and November–February), streamflow duration statistics for monthly and annual periods, and mean streamflows for monthly and annual periods. Streamflow is considered to be regulated at streamflow-gaging stations where dams or other large-scale human modifications affect 20 percent or more of the contributing drainage basin. Separate streamflow characteristics are presented for the unregulated and regulated periods of record for streamflow-gaging stations with sufficient data.

Variations in the correlation between teleconnections and Taiwan's streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Chia-Jeng; Lee, Tsung-Yu

2017-07-01

Interannual variations in catchment streamflow represent an integrated response to anomalies in regional moisture transport and atmospheric circulations and are ultimately linked to large-scale climate oscillations. This study conducts correlation analysis to calculate how summertime (July-September, JAS) streamflow data derived at 28 upstream and 13 downstream gauges in Taiwan correlate with 14 teleconnection indices in the current or preceding seasons. We find that the western Pacific (WP) and Pacific-Japan (PJ) patterns, both of which play a critical role in determining cyclonic activity in the western North Pacific basin, exhibit the highest concurrent correlations (most significant r = 0. 50) with the JAS flows in Taiwan. Alternatively, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) averaged over the period from the previous October to June of the current year is significantly correlated with the JAS flows (most significant r = -0. 66), indicating some forecasting utility. By further examining the correlation results using a 20-year moving window, peculiar temporal variations and possible climate regime shifts (CRSs) can be revealed. A CRS test is employed to identify suspicious and abrupt changes in the correlation. The late 1970s and 1990s are identified as two significant change points. During the intermediate period, Taiwan's streamflow and the PJ index exhibit a marked in-phase relationship (r > 0. 8). It is verified that the two shifts are in concordance with the alteration of large-scale circulations in the Pacific basin by investigating the changes in pattern correlation and composite maps before and after the change point. Our results suggest that empirical forecasting techniques should take into account the effect of CRSs on predictor screening.

Calibrated models as management tools for stream-aquifer systems: the case of central Kansas, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sophocleous, Marios; Perkins, Samuel P.

1993-12-01

We address the problem of declining streamflows in interconnected stream-aquifer systems and explore possible management options to address the problem for two areas of central Kansas: the Arkansas River valley from Kinsley to Great Bend and the lower Rattlesnake Creek-Quivira National Wildlife Refuge area. The approach we followed implements, calibrates, and partially validates for the study areas a stream-aquifer numerical model combined with a parameter estimation package and sensitivity analysis. Hydrologic budgets for both predevelopment and developed conditions indicate significant differences in the hydrologic components of the study areas resulting from development. The predevelopment water budgets give an estimate of natural ground-water recharge, whereas the budgets for developed conditions give an estimate of induced recharge, indicating that major ground-water development changes the recharge-discharge regime of the model areas with time. Such stream-aquifer models serve to link proposed actions to hydrologic effects, as is clearly demonstrated by the effects of various management alternatives on the streamflows of the Arkansas River and Rattlesnake Creek. Thus we show that a possible means of restoring specified streamflows in the area is to implement protective stream corridors with restricted ground-water extraction.

Assessment of De Facto Wastewater Reuse across the US: trends between 1980 and 2008.

PubMed

Rice, Jacelyn; Wutich, Amber; Westerhoff, Paul

2013-10-01

De facto wastewater reuse is the incidental presence of treated wastewater in a water supply source. In 1980 the EPA identified drinking water treatment plants (DWTPs) impacted by upstream wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) discharges and found the top 25 most impacted DWTPs contained between 2% and 16% wastewater discharges from upstream locations (i.e., de facto reuse) under average streamflow conditions. This study is the first to provide an update to the 1980 EPA analysis. An ArcGIS model of DWTPs and WWTPs across the U.S. was created to quantify de facto reuse for the top 25 cities in the 1980 EPA study. From 1980 to 2008, de facto reuse increased for 17 of the 25 DWTPs, as municipal flows upstream of the sites increased by 68%. Under low streamflow conditions, de facto reuse in DWTP supplies ranged from 7% to 100%, illustrating the importance of wastewater in sustainable water supplies. Case studies were performed on four cities to analyze the reasons for changes in de facto reuse over time. Three of the four sites have greater than 20% treated wastewater effluent within their drinking water source for streamflow less than the 25th percentile historic flow.

Water resources of the Cook Inlet Basin, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Freethey, Geoffrey W.; Scully, David R.

1980-01-01

Ground-water and surface-water systems of Cook Inlet basin, Alaska, are analyzed. Geologic and topographic features that control the movement and regional availability of ground water are explained and illustrated. Five aquifer systems beneath the most populous areas are described. Estimates of ground-water yield were determined for the region by using ground-water data for the populated areas and by extrapolating known subsurface conditions and interpreting subsurface conditions from surficial features in the other areas. Area maps of generalized geology, Quaternary sediment thickness, and general availability of ground water are shown. Surface-water resources are summarized by describing how basin characteristics affect the discharge in streams. Seasonal trend of streamflow for three types of streams is described. Regression equations for 4 streamflow characteristics (annual, monthly minimum, and maximum discharge) were obtained by using gaging station streamflow characteristics and 10 basin characteristics. In the 24 regression equations presented, drainage area is the most significant basin characteristic, but 5 others are used. Maps of mean annual unit runoff and minimum unit yield for 7 consecutive days with a recurrence interval of 10 years are shown. Historic discharge data at gaging stations is tabulated and representative low-flow and flood-flow frequency curves are shown. (USGS)

Calibrated models as management tools for stream-aquifer systems: the case of central Kansas, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sophocleous, M.; Perkins, S.P.

1993-01-01

We address the problem of declining streamflows in interconnected stream-aquifer systems and explore possible management options to address the problem for two areas of central Kansas: the Arkansas River valley from Kinsley to Great Bend and the lower Rattlesnake Creek-Quivira National Wildlife Refuge area. The approach we followed implements, calibrates, and partially validates for the study areas a stream-aquifer numerical model combined with a parameter estimation package and sensitivity analysis. Hydrologic budgets for both predevelopment and developed conditions indicate significant differences in the hydrologic components of the study areas resulting from development. The predevelopment water budgets give an estimate of natural ground-water recharge, whereas the budgets for developed conditions give an estimate of induced recharge, indicating that major ground-water development changes the recharge-discharge regime of the model areas with time. Such stream-aquifer models serve to link proposed actions to hydrologic effects, as is clearly demonstrated by the effects of various management alternatives on the streamflows of the Arkansas River and Rattlesnake Creek. Thus we show that a possible means of restoring specified streamflows in the area is to implement protective stream corridors with restricted ground-water extraction. ?? 1993.

The hydroclimatology of the United States during El Nino/Southern Oscillation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dracup, J.A.; Piechota, T.C.; Khachikian, C.S.

Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) monthly data are analyzed, building on a previous study that investigated the influence of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on US streamflow. Harmonic analysis is performed using data from 1,035 selected climatological stations, allowing observation of the biennial tendency in climate data. With the middle twelve months defined as the El Nino year (0), an idealized first harmonic fit to a 24-month ENSO composite is computed for each station. By plotting the first harmonic vectors of each station, regions of similar, or coherent, response are identified. The regions identified using PDSI data represent wet conditionsmore » in the Gulf of Mexico (Gm1 and GM2) and central (C) US, and dry conditions in the Pacific northwest (PNW) and northeast (NE) US. The PNW region exhibits the strongest interrelationship between ENSO and extreme drought events. Comparing PDSI data results with other hydroclimatic data (temperature, precipitation, and streamflow) reveals consistent responses. The most filtered response is seen in the PDSI and streamflow data, and these data are probably the best measure of the overall hydroclimatic response within a region. Results of this study suggest that conditions in the tropical Pacific (e.g., sea surface temperatures) may be excellent precursors of future climate. These conditions may also enhance long range prediction of droughts and floods for certain regions of the US.« less

Observed impacts of duration and seasonality of atmospheric-river landfalls on soil moisture and runoff in coastal northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ralph, F.M.; Coleman, T.; Neiman, P.J.; Zamora, R.J.; Dettinger, Mike

2013-01-01

This study is motivated by diverse needs for better forecasts of extreme precipitation and floods. It is enabled by unique hourly observations collected over six years near California’s Russian River and by recent advances in the science of atmospheric rivers (ARs). This study fills key gaps limiting the prediction of ARs and, especially, their impacts by quantifying the duration of AR conditions and the role of duration in modulating hydrometeorological impacts. Precursor soil moisture conditions and their relationship to streamflow are also shown. On the basis of 91 well-observed events during 2004-10, the study shows that the passage of ARs over a coastal site lasted 20 h on average and that 12% of the AR events exceeded 30 h. Differences in storm-total water vapor transport directed up the mountain slope contribute 74% of the variance in storm-total rainfall across the events and 61% of the variance in storm-total runoff volume. ARs with double the composite mean duration produced nearly 6 times greater peak streamflow and more than 7 times the storm-total runoff volume. When precursor soil moisture was less than 20%, even heavy rainfall did not lead to significant streamflow. Predicting which AR events are likely to produce extreme impacts on precipitation and runoff requires accurate prediction of AR duration at landfall and observations of precursor soil moisture conditions.

Application of the US Geological Survey's precipitation-runoff modeling system to Williams Draw and Bush Draw basins, Jackson County, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuhn, Gerhard

1988-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey 's precipitation-runoff modeling system was calibrated for this study by using daily streamflow data for April through September, 1980 and 1981, from the Williams Draw basin in Jackson County, Colorado. The calibrated model then was verified by using daily streamflow data for April through September, 1982 and 1983. Transferability of the model was tested by application to adjoining Bush Draw basin by using daily streamflow data for April through September, 1981 through 1983. Four model parameters were optimized in the calibration: (1) BST, base air temperature used to determine the form of precipitation (rain, snow, or a mixture); (2) SMAX, maximum available water-holding capacity of the soil zone; (3) TRNCF, transmission coefficient for the vegetation canopy over the snowpack; and (4) DSCOR, daily precipitation correction factor for snow. For calibration and verification, volume and timing of simulated streamflow were reasonably close to recorded streamflow; differences were least during years that had considerable snowpack accumulation and were most during years that had minimal or no snowpack accumulation. Calibration and optimization of parameters were facilitated by snowpack water-equivalent data. Application of the model to Bush Draw basin to test for transferability indicated inaccurate results in simulation of streamflow volume. Weighted values of SMAX, TRNCF, and DSCOR from the calibration basin were used for Bush Draw. The inadequate results obtained by use of weighted parameters indicate that snowpack water-equivalent data are needed for successful application of the precipitation-runoff modeling system in this area, because frequent windy conditions cause variations in snowpack accumulation. (USGS)

Increasing influence of air temperature on upper Colorado River streamflow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodhouse, Connie A.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Morino, Kiyomi; McAfee, Stephanie A.; McCabe, Gregory J.

2016-01-01

This empirical study examines the influence of precipitation, temperature, and antecedent soil moisture on upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) water year streamflow over the past century. While cool season precipitation explains most of the variability in annual flows, temperature appears to be highly influential under certain conditions, with the role of antecedent fall soil moisture less clear. In both wet and dry years, when flow is substantially different than expected given precipitation, these factors can modulate the dominant precipitation influence on streamflow. Different combinations of temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture can result in flow deficits of similar magnitude, but recent droughts have been amplified by warmer temperatures that exacerbate the effects of relatively modest precipitation deficits. Since 1988, a marked increase in the frequency of warm years with lower flows than expected, given precipitation, suggests continued warming temperatures will be an increasingly important influence in reducing future UCRB water supplies.

Streamflow, infiltration, and ground-water recharge at Abo Arroyo, New Mexico: Chapter D in Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States (Professional Paper 1703)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart-Deaker, Amy E.; Stonestrom, David A.; Moore, Stephanie J.; Stonestrom, David A.; Constantz, Jim; Ferré, Ty P.A.; Leake, Stanley A.

2007-01-01

Abo Arroyo, an ephemeral tributary to the Rio Grande, rises in the largest upland catchment on the eastern side of the Middle Rio Grande Basin (MRGB). The 30-kilometer reach of channel between the mountain front and its confluence with the Rio Grande is incised into basin-fill sediments and separated from the regional water table by an unsaturated zone that reaches 120 meters thick. The MRGB portion of the arroyo is dry except for brief flows generated by runoff from the upland catchment. Though brief, ephemeral flows provide a substantial fraction of ground-water recharge in the southeastern portion of the MRGB. Previous estimates of average annual recharge from Abo Arroyo range from 1.3 to 21 million cubic meters. The current study examined the timing, location, and amount of channel infiltration using streamflow data and environmental tracers during a four-year period (water years 1997–2000). A streamflow-gaging station (“gage”) was installed in a bedrock-controlled reach near the catchment outlet to provide high-frequency data on runoff entering the basin. Streamflow at the gage, an approximate bound on potential tributary recharge to the basin, ranged from 0.8 to 15 million cubic meters per year. Storm-generated runoff produced about 98 percent of the flow in the wettest year and 80 percent of the flow in the driest year. Nearly all flows that enter the MRGB arise from monsoonal storms in July through October. A newly developed streambed temperature method indicated the presence and duration of ephemeral flows downstream of the gage. During the monsoon season, abrupt downward shifts in streambed temperatures and suppressed diurnal ranges provided generally clear indications of flow. Streambed temperatures during winter showed that snowmelt is also effective in generating channel infiltration. Controlled infiltration experiments in dry arroyo sediments indicated that most ephemeral flow is lost to seepage before reaching the Rio Grande. Streambed temperature records confirmed this, providing evidence of only two flows reaching the Rio Grande during a three-year period (water years 1998–2000). Sub-channel chloride concentrations indicate that approximately half of the seepage loss eventually becomes ground-water recharge. Vertical profiles of pore-water chloride in transects adjacent to the channel indicate that basin-floor recharge outside the arroyo is negligible under current climatic conditions.

Separating the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow: A review of methodologies and critical assumptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dey, Pankaj; Mishra, Ashok

2017-05-01

Climate change and human activity are two major drivers that alter hydrological cycle processes and cause change in spatio-temporal distribution of water availability. Streamflow, the most important component of hydrological cycle undergoes variation which is expected to be influenced by climate change as well as human activities. Since these two affecting conditions are time dependent, having unequal influence, identification of the change point in natural flow regime is of utmost important to separate the individual impact of climate change and human activities on streamflow variability. Subsequently, it is important as well for framing adaptation strategies and policies for regional water resources planning and management. In this paper, a comprehensive review of different approaches used by research community to isolate the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow are presented. The important issues pertaining to different approaches, to make rational use of methodology, are discussed so that researcher and policymaker can understand the importance of individual methodology and its use in water resources management. A new approach has also been suggested to select a representative change point under different scenarios of human activities with incorporation of climate variability/change.

Modeling Streamflow and Water Temperature in the North Santiam and Santiam Rivers, Oregon, 2001-02

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sullivan, Annett B.; Roundsk, Stewart A.

2004-01-01

To support the development of a total maximum daily load (TMDL) for water temperature in the Willamette Basin, the laterally averaged, two-dimensional model CE-QUAL-W2 was used to construct a water temperature and streamflow model of the Santiam and North Santiam Rivers. The rivers were simulated from downstream of Detroit and Big Cliff dams to the confluence with the Willamette River. Inputs to the model included bathymetric data, flow and temperature from dam releases, tributary flow and temperature, and meteorologic data. The model was calibrated for the period July 1 through November 21, 2001, and confirmed with data from April 1 through October 31, 2002. Flow calibration made use of data from two streamflow gages and travel-time and river-width data. Temperature calibration used data from 16 temperature monitoring locations in 2001 and 5 locations in 2002. A sensitivity analysis was completed by independently varying input parameters, including point-source flow, air temperature, flow and water temperature from dam releases, and riparian shading. Scenario analyses considered hypothetical river conditions without anthropogenic heat inputs, with restored riparian vegetation, with minimum streamflow from the dams, and with a more-natural seasonal water temperature regime from dam releases.

Temporal variability in the suspended sediment load and streamflow of the Doce River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliveira, Kyssyanne Samihra Santos; Quaresma, Valéria da Silva

2017-10-01

Long-term records of streamflow and suspended sediment load provide a better understanding of the evolution of a river mouth, and its adjacent waters and a support for mitigation programs associated with extreme events and engineering projects. The aim of this study is to investigate the temporal variability in the suspended sediment load and streamflow of the Doce River to the Atlantic Ocean, between 1990 and 2013. Streamflow and suspended sediment load were analyzed at the daily, seasonal, and interannual scales. The results showed that at the daily scale, Doce River flood events are due to high intensity and short duration rainfalls, which means that there is a flashy response to rainfall. At the monthly and season scales, approximately 94% of the suspended sediment supply occurs during the wet season. Extreme hydrological events are important for the interannual scale for Doce River sediment supply to the Atlantic Ocean. The results suggest that a summation of anthropogenic interferences (deforestation, urbanization and soil degradation) led to an increase of extreme hydrological events. The findings of this study shows the importance of understanding the typical behavior of the Doce River, allowing the detection of extreme hydrological conditions, its causes and possible environmental and social consequences.

Estimating discharge and non-point source nitrate loading to streams from three end-member pathways using high-frequency water quality and streamflow data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, M. P.; Tesoriero, A. J.; Hood, K.; Terziotti, S.; Wolock, D.

2017-12-01

The myriad hydrologic and biogeochemical processes taking place in watersheds occurring across space and time are integrated and reflected in the quantity and quality of water in streams and rivers. Collection of high-frequency water quality data with sensors in surface waters provides new opportunities to disentangle these processes and quantify sources and transport of water and solutes in the coupled groundwater-surface water system. A new approach for separating the streamflow hydrograph into three components was developed and coupled with high-frequency specific conductance and nitrate data to estimate time-variable watershed-scale nitrate loading from three end-member pathways - dilute quickflow, concentrated quickflow, and slowflow groundwater - to two streams in central Wisconsin. Time-variable nitrate loads from the three pathways were estimated for periods of up to two years in a groundwater-dominated and a quickflow-dominated stream, using only streamflow and in-stream water quality data. The dilute and concentrated quickflow end-members were distinguished using high-frequency specific conductance data. Results indicate that dilute quickflow contributed less than 5% of the nitrate load at both sites, whereas 89±5% of the nitrate load at the groundwater-dominated stream was from slowflow groundwater, and 84±13% of the nitrate load at the quickflow-dominated stream was from concentrated quickflow. Concentrated quickflow nitrate concentrations varied seasonally at both sites, with peak concentrations in the winter that were 2-3 times greater than minimum concentrations during the growing season. Application of this approach provides an opportunity to assess stream vulnerability to non-point source nitrate loading and expected stream responses to current or changing conditions and practices in watersheds.

Hydrologic and hydraulic flood forecasting constrained by remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Grimaldi, S.; Pauwels, V. R. N.; Walker, J. P.; Wright, A. J.

2017-12-01

Flooding is one of the most destructive natural disasters, resulting in many deaths and billions of dollars of damages each year. An indispensable tool to mitigate the effect of floods is to provide accurate and timely forecasts. An operational flood forecasting system typically consists of a hydrologic model, converting rainfall data into flood volumes entering the river system, and a hydraulic model, converting these flood volumes into water levels and flood extents. Such a system is prone to various sources of uncertainties from the initial conditions, meteorological forcing, topographic data, model parameters and model structure. To reduce those uncertainties, current forecasting systems are typically calibrated and/or updated using ground-based streamflow measurements, and such applications are limited to well-gauged areas. The recent increasing availability of spatially distributed remote sensing (RS) data offers new opportunities to improve flood forecasting skill. Based on an Australian case study, this presentation will discuss the use of 1) RS soil moisture to constrain a hydrologic model, and 2) RS flood extent and level to constrain a hydraulic model.The GRKAL hydrological model is calibrated through a joint calibration scheme using both ground-based streamflow and RS soil moisture observations. A lag-aware data assimilation approach is tested through a set of synthetic experiments to integrate RS soil moisture to constrain the streamflow forecasting in real-time.The hydraulic model is LISFLOOD-FP which solves the 2-dimensional inertial approximation of the Shallow Water Equations. Gauged water level time series and RS-derived flood extent and levels are used to apply a multi-objective calibration protocol. The effectiveness with which each data source or combination of data sources constrained the parameter space will be discussed.

Hydro-climatic data network (HCDN); a U.S. Geological Survey streamflow data set for the United States for the study of climate variations, 1874-1988

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slack, J.R.; Landwehr, Jurate Maciunas

1992-01-01

Records of streamflow can provide an account of climatic variation over a hydrologic basin. The ability to do so is conditioned on the absence of confounding factors that diminish the climate signal. A national data set of streamflow records that are relatively free of confounding anthropogenic influences has been developed for the purpose of studying the variation in surface-water conditions throughout the United States. Records in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Storage and Retrieval System (WATSTORE) data base for active and discontinued streamflow gaging stations through water year 1988 (that is, through September 30, 1988) were reviewed jointly with data specialists in each USGS District office. The resulting collection of stations, each with its respective period of record satisfying the qualifying criteria, is called the Hydro-Climatic Data Network, or HCDN. The HCDN consists of 1,659 sites throughout the United States and its territories, totaling 73,231 water years of daily mean discharge values. For each station in the HCDN, information necessary for its identification, along with any qualifying comments about the available record and a set of descriptive watershed characteristics are provided in tabular format in this report, both on paper and on computer disk (enclosed). For each station in the HCDN, the appropriate daily mean discharge values were compiled, and statistical characteristics, including monthly mean discharges and annual mean, minimum and maximum discharges, were derived. The discharge data values are provided in a companion report.

Streamflow and water-quality conditions including geologic sources and processes affecting selenium loading in the Toll Gate Creek watershed, Aurora, Arapahoe County, Colorado, 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paschke, Suzanne S.; Runkel, Robert L.; Walton-Day, Katherine; Kimball, Briant A.; Schaffrath, Keelin R.

2013-01-01

Toll Gate Creek is a perennial stream draining a suburban area in Aurora, Colorado, where selenium concentrations have consistently exceeded the State of Colorado aquatic-life standard for selenium of 4.6 micrograms per liter since the early 2000s. In cooperation with the City of Aurora, Colorado, Utilities Department, a synoptic water-quality study was performed along an 18-kilometer reach of Toll Gate Creek extending from downstream from Quincy Reservoir to the confluence with Sand Creek to develop a detailed understanding of streamflow and concentrations and loads of selenium in Toll Gate Creek. Streamflow and surface-water quality were characterized for summer low-flow conditions (July–August 2007) using four spatially overlapping synoptic-sampling subreaches. Mass-balance methods were applied to the synoptic-sampling and tracer-injection results to estimate streamflow and develop spatial profiles of concentration and load for selenium and other chemical constituents in Toll Gate Creek surface water. Concurrent groundwater sampling determined concentrations of selenium and other chemical constituents in groundwater in areas surrounding the Toll Gate Creek study reaches. Multivariate principal-component analysis was used to group samples and to suggest common sources for dissolved selenium and major ions. Hydrogen and oxygen stable-isotope ratios, groundwater-age interpretations, and chemical analysis of water-soluble paste extractions from core samples are presented, and interpretation of the hydrologic and geochemical data support conclusions regarding geologic sources of selenium and the processes affecting selenium loading in the Toll Gate Creek watershed.

Simulated hydrologic response to climate change during the 21st century in New Hampshire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjerklie, David M.; Sturtevant, Luke P.

2018-01-24

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services and the Department of Health and Human Services, has developed a hydrologic model to assess the effects of short- and long-term climate change on hydrology in New Hampshire. This report documents the model and datasets developed by using the model to predict how climate change will affect the hydrologic cycle and provide data that can be used by State and local agencies to identify locations that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change in areas across New Hampshire. Future hydrologic projections were developed from the output of five general circulation models for two future climate scenarios. The scenarios are based on projected future greenhouse gas emissions and estimates of land-use and land-cover change within a projected global economic framework. An evaluation of the possible effect of projected future temperature on modeling of evapotranspiration is summarized to address concerns regarding the implications of the future climate on model parameters that are based on climate variables. The results of the model simulations are hydrologic projections indicating increasing streamflow across the State with large increases in streamflow during winter and early spring and general decreases during late spring and summer. Wide spatial variability in changes to groundwater recharge is projected, with general decreases in the Connecticut River Valley and at high elevations in the northern part of the State and general increases in coastal and lowland areas of the State. In general, total winter snowfall is projected to decrease across the State, but there is a possibility of increasing snow in some locations, particularly during November, February, and March. The simulated future changes in recharge and snowfall vary by watershed across the State. This means that each area of the State could experience very different changes, depending on topography or other factors. Therefore, planning for infrastructure and public safety needs to be flexible in order to address the range of possible outcomes indicated by the various model simulations. The absolute magnitude and timing of the daily streamflows, especially the larger floods, are not considered to be reliably simulated compared to changes in frequency and duration of daily streamflows and changes in accumulated monthly and seasonal streamflow volumes. Simulated current and future streamflow, groundwater recharge, and snowfall datasets include simulated data derived from the five general circulation models used in this study for a current reference time period and two future time periods. Average monthly streamflow time series datasets are provided for 27 streamgages in New Hampshire. Fourteen of the 27 streamgages associated with daily streamflow time series showed a good calibration. Average monthly groundwater recharge and snowfall time series for the same reference time period and two future time periods are also provided for each of the 467 hydrologic response units that compose the model.

A study of the effects of implementing agricultural best management practices and in-stream restoration on suspended sediment, stream habitat, and benthic macroinvertebrates at three stream sites in Surry County, North Carolina, 2004-2007-Lessons learned

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Douglas G.; Ferrell, G.M.; Harned, Douglas A.; Cuffney, Thomas F.

2011-01-01

The effects of agricultural best management practices and in-stream restoration on suspended-sediment concentrations, stream habitat, and benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages were examined in a comparative study of three small, rural stream basins in the Piedmont and Blue Ridge Physiographic Provinces of North Carolina and Virginia between 2004 and 2007. The study was designed to assess changes in stream quality associated with stream-improvement efforts at two sites in comparison to a control site (Hogan Creek), for which no improvements were planned. In the drainage basin of one of the stream-improvement sites (Bull Creek), several agricultural best management practices, primarily designed to limit cattle access to streams, were implemented during this study. In the drainage basin of the second stream-improvement site (Pauls Creek), a 1,600-foot reach of the stream channel was restored and several agricultural best management practices were implemented. Streamflow conditions in the vicinity of the study area were similar to or less than the long-term annual mean streamflows during the study. Precipitation during the study period also was less than normal, and the geographic distribution of precipitation indicated drier conditions in the southern part of the study area than in the northern part. Dry conditions during much of the study limited opportunities for acquiring high-flow sediment samples and streamflow measurements. Suspended-sediment yields for the three basins were compared to yield estimates for streams in the southeastern United States. Concentrations of suspended sediment and nutrients in samples from Bull Creek, the site where best management practices were implemented, were high compared to the other two sites. No statistically significant change in suspended-sediment concentrations occurred at the Bull Creek site following implementation of best management practices. However, data collected before and after channel stabilization at the Pauls Creek site indicated a statistically significant (p<0.05) decrease in suspended-sediment discharge following in-stream restoration. Stream habitat characteristics were similar at the Bull Creek and Hogan Creek reaches. However, the Pauls Creek reach was distinguished from the other two sites by a lack of pools, greater bankfull widths, greater streamflow and velocity, and larger basin size. Historical changes in the stream channel in the vicinity of the Pauls Creek streamgage are evident in aerial photographs dating from 1936 to 2005 and could have contributed to stream-channel instability. The duration of this study likely was inadequate for detecting changes in stream habitat characteristics. Benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages differed by site and changed during the course of the study. Bull Creek, the best management practices site, stood out as the site having the poorest overall conditions and the greatest improvement in benthic macroinvertebrate communities during the study period. Richness and diversity metrics indicated that benthic macroinvertebrate community conditions at the Hogan Creek and Pauls Creek sites declined during the study, although the status was excellent based on the North Carolina Index of Biotic Integrity. Experiences encountered during this study exemplify the difficulties of attempting to assess the short-term effects of stream-improvement efforts on a watershed scale and, in particular, the difficulty of finding similar basins for a comparative study. Data interpretation was complicated by dry climatic conditions and unanticipated land disturbances that occurred during the study in each of the three study basins. For example, agricultural best management practices were implemented in the drainage basin of the control site prior to and during the study. An impoundment on Bull Creek upstream from the streamgaging station probably influenced water-quality conditions and streamflow. Road construction in the vicinity of the Pauls Creek site potentially masked changes related to stream-improvement efforts. In addition, stream-improvement activities occurred in each of the three study basins over a period of several years prior to and during the study so that there were no discrete before and after periods available for meaningful comparisons. Historical and current land-use activities in each of the three study basins likely affected observed stream conditions. The duration of this study probably was insufficient to detect changes associated with agricultural best management practices and stream-channel restoration.

Estimation of Tile Drainage Contribution to Streamflow and Nutrient Export Loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schilling, K. E.; Arenas Amado, A.; Jones, C. S.; Weber, L. J.

2015-12-01

Subsurface drainage is a very common practice in the agricultural U.S. Midwest. It is typically installed in poorly drained soils in order to enhance crop yields. The presence of tile drains creates a route for agrichemicals to travel and therefore negatively impacts stream water quality. This study estimated through end-member analyses the contributions of tile drainage, groundwater, and surface runoff to streamflow at the watershed scale based on continuously monitored data. Especial attention was devoted to quantifying tile drainage impact on watershed streamflow and nutrient export loads. Data analyzed includes streamflow, rainfall, soil moisture, shallow groundwater levels, in-stream nitrate+nitrite concentrations and specific conductance. Data were collected at a HUC12 watershed located in Northeast Iowa, USA. Approximately 60% of the total watershed area is devoted to agricultural activities and forest and grassland are the other two predominant land uses. Results show that approximately 20% of total annual streamflow comes from tile drainage and during rainfall events tile drainage contribution can go up to 30%. Furthermore, for most of the analyzed rainfall events groundwater responded faster and in a more dramatic fashion than tile drainage. The State of Iowa is currently carrying out a plan to reduce nutrients in Iowa waters and the Gulf of Mexico (Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy). The outcome of this investigation has the potential to assist in Best Management Practice (BMP) scenario selection and therefore help the state achieve water quality goals.

Klamath River Reconstruction: Strategies for Dealing with Uncertainty in Calibration Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodhouse, C. A.; Malevich, S. B.; Meko, D. M.; Gangopadhyay, S.

2013-12-01

The upper Klamath Basin has been the center of conflict over competing water uses and values in recent years, exacerbated by drought conditions. Currently, water needs for irrigation, fish, and riparian environments are being addressed and plans for sharing limited water resources are being negotiated. In a number of major river basins in the western US, extended records of streamflow from tree rings have been found useful for planning by placing recent droughts in a long term context and characterizing the long-term hydrologic variability over past centuries. The focus of this research is the first reconstruction of the upper Klamath River and its potential use for management. One challenge in the reconstruction of Klamath River streamflow is the availability of high quality streamflow data for reconstruction model calibration. In the Klamath basin, a long history of diversions for irrigation along with complex wetland hydrology has made the accurate estimation of natural flows difficult. A number of sources of hydrology are available, but all show differences in magnitudes of high and low flows. While the uncertainties in the calibration streamflow data can be described and quantified, they cannot be overcome, and thus impart uncertainty to the resulting reconstruction. Thus, it is important to develop analysis strategies that highlight the most certain aspects of the reconstruction. In the case of the Klamath River records, the most robust information concerns the sequences of flow, and duration and frequency of wet and dry intervals. In the reconstruction, which extends from 1493-2010, analyses of frequency and distribution of extreme low flow years, runs of consecutive years of low flows, and the probability of transitions between wet and dry years all document long-term natural hydrologic variability, over which the impacts of climate change will be imposed. While not a perfect record of past flow, the Klamath reconstruction provides information that can be useful to management. A challenge is to convey the uncertainties, but to also highlight the information for which we have the most confidence, and why.

Streamflow, water-quality, and biological conditions in the Big Black Creek basin, St. Clair County, Alabama, 1997

USGS Publications Warehouse

Journey, Celeste A.; Clark, Amy E.; Stricklin, Victor E.

1998-01-01

In 1997 synoptic streamflow, water-quality, and biological investi- gations in the Big Black Creek Basin were conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the City of Moody, St. Clair County, and the Birmingham Water Works Board. Data obtained during these synoptic investigations provide a one-time look at the streamflow and water-quality conditions in the Big Black Creek Basin during a stable, base-flow period when streamflow originated only from ground-water discharge. These data were used to assess the degree of water-quality degradation in the Big Black Creek Basin from land-use activities in the basin, including leakage of leachate from the Acmar Regional Land- fill. Biological data from the benthic invertebrate community investigation provided an assessment of the cumulative effects of stream conditions on organisms in the basin. The synoptic measurement of streamflow at 28 sites was made during a period of baseflow on August 27, 1997. Two stream reaches above the landfill lost water to the ground-water system, but those below the landfill had significantly higher ground-water gains. If significant leakage of leachate from the landfill had occurred during the measurement period, the distribution of ground-water discharge suggests that leachate would travel relatively short distances before resurfacing as ground-water discharge to the stream. Benthic invertebrate communities were sampled at four sites in the Big Black Creek Basin during July 16-17, 1997. Based on Alabama Department of Environmental Management criteria and on comparison with a nearby unimparied reference site, the benthic invertebrate communities at the sites sampled were considered unimpaired or only slightly impaired during the sample period. This would imply that landfill and coal-mining activities did not have a detrimental effect on the benthic invertebrate communities at the time of the study. Synoptic water-column samples were collected at nine sites on Big Black Creek and its tributaries at the same time that the synoptic streamflow measurements were made. Trace-element and organic compound concentrations in the stream water were below established water-quality standards and criteria for the State of Alabama, with the exception of secondary (aesthetic) drinking-water levels for iron and manganese. Oil and grease concentrations detected in bed sediments were below the corrective action limit of 100 milligrams per kilogram. No significant increases in chloride, specific conductance, total dissolved solids, oil and grease, color, or biochemical oxygen demand were observed at sites downgradient from the landfill. Ground-water samples were collected from three drive-point wells in the vicinity of the landfill. These samples were analyzed for a suite of volatile organic compounds. The solvent 1,1-dichloroethane (the same solvent detected in the ground-water monitoring system at the landfill) was detected in a sample from a drive-point well downgradient from the landfill--an indication of the potential risk of landfill-derived contamination migrating toward Big Black Creek. No distinguishing trend or pattern of contamination was identified that could be attributed solely to landfill activities. Landfill activities did not appear to contribute significant contamination to Big Black Creek during these streamflow conditions. Any contaminant contribution from coal-mining activities in the basin may have served to mask any leachate contributions from the landfill; however, the overall effects on stream water and benthic intervebrate communities apparently were only minimal.

Streamflow and water-quality characteristics at selected sites of the St. Johns River in central Florida, 1933 to 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kroening, Sharon E.

2004-01-01

To meet water-supply needs in central Florida for 2020, the St. Johns River is being considered as a source of water supply to augment ground water from the Floridan aquifer system. Current (2004) information on streamflow and water-quality characteristics of the St. Johns River in east-central Florida is needed by water resources planners to assess the feasibility of using the river as an alternate source of water supply and to design water treatment facilities. To address this need, streamflow and water quality of the 90-mile-long middle reach of the St. Johns River, Florida, from downstream of Lake Poinsett to near DeLand, were characterized by using retrospective (1991-99) and recently collected data (2000-02). Streamflow characteristics were determined by using data from water years 1933-2000. Water-quality characteristics were described using data from 1991-99 at 15 sites on the St. Johns River and 1 site each near the mouths of the Econlockhatchee and Wekiva Rivers. Data were augmented with biweekly water-quality data and continuous physical properties data at four St. Johns River sites and quarterly data from sites on the Wekiva River, Blackwater Creek, and downstream of Blue Springs from 2000-02. Water-quality constituents described were limited to information on physical properties, major ions and other inorganic constituents, nutrients, organic carbon, suspended solids, and phytoplankton chlorophyll-a. The occurrence of antibiotics, human prescription and nonprescription drugs, pesticides, and a suite of organic constituents, which may indicate domestic or industrial waste, were described at two St. Johns River sites using limited data collected in water years 2002-03. The occurrence of these same constituents in water from a pilot water treatment facility on Lake Monroe also was described using data from one sampling event conducted in March 2003. Dissolved oxygen concentration and water pH values in the St. Johns River were significantly lower during high-flow conditions than during low-flow conditions. Low dissolved oxygen concentrations may have resulted from the input of water from marsh areas or the subsequent decomposition of organic matter transported to the river during high-flow events. Low water pH values during high-flow conditions likely resulted from the increased dissolved organic carbon concentrations in the river. Concentrations of total dissolved solids and other inorganic constituents in the St. Johns River were inversely related with streamflow. Most major ion concentrations, total dissolved solids concentrations, and specific conductance values varied substantially at the Christmas, Sanford, and DeLand sites during low-flow periods in 2000-01 probably reflecting wind and tidal effects. Sulfide concentrations as high as 6 milligrams per liter (mg/L) were measured in the St. Johns River during high-flow periods. Increased sulfide concentrations likely resulted from the decomposition of organic matter or the reduction of sulfate. Bromide concentrations as high as 17 mg/L were measured at the most upstream site on the St. Johns River during 2000-02. Temporal variations in bromide were characterized by sharp peaks in concentration during low-flow periods. Peaks in bromide concentrations tended to coincide with peaks in chloride concentrations because the likely source of both constituents is ground water affected by relict seawater. Median dissolved organic carbon concentrations ranged from 15 to 26 mg/L during 2000-02, and concentrations as high as 42 mg/L were measured. Water color values and dissolved organic carbon concentrations generally were significantly greater during high-flow conditions than during low-flow conditions. Specific ultraviolet light absorbance data indicated the organic carbon during high-flow events was more aromatic in composition and likely originated from terrestrially derived sources compared to organic carbon in the river during other times of the year. D

Thirty Years Later: Reflections of the Big Thompson Flood, Colorado, 1976 to 2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarrett, R. D.; Costa, J. E.; Brunstein, F. C.; Quesenberry, C. A.; Vandas, S. J.; Capesius, J. P.; O'Neill, G. B.

2006-12-01

Thirty years ago, over 300 mm of rain fell in about 4 to 6 hours in the middle reaches of the Big Thompson River Basin during the devastating flash flood on July 31, 1976. The rainstorm produced flood discharges that exceeded 40 m3/s/km2. A peak discharge of 883 m3/s was estimated at the Big Thompson River near Drake streamflow-gaging station. The raging waters left 144 people dead, 250 injured, and over 800 people were evacuated by helicopter. Four-hundred eighteen homes and businesses were destroyed, as well as 438 automobiles, and damage to infrastructure left the canyon reachable only via helicopter. Total damage was estimated in excess of $116 million (2006 dollars). Natural hazards similar to the Big Thompson flood are rare, but the probability of a similar event hitting the Front Range, other parts of Colorado, or other parts of the Nation is real. Although much smaller in scale than the Big Thompson flood, several flash floods have happened during the monsoon in early July 2006 in the Colorado foothills that reemphasized the hazards associated with flash flooding. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts flood research to help understand and predict the magnitude and likelihood of large streamflow events such as the Big Thompson flood. A summary of hydrologic conditions of the 1976 flood, what the 1976 flood can teach us about flash floods, a description of some of the advances in USGS flood science as a consequence of this disaster, and lessons that we learned to help reduce loss of life from this extraordinary flash flood are discussed. In the 30 years since the Big Thompson flood, there have been important advances in streamflow monitoring and flood warning. The National Weather Service (NWS) NEXRAD radar allows real-time monitoring of precipitation in most places in the United States. The USGS currently (2006) operates about 7,250 real-time streamflow-gaging stations in the United States that are monitored by the USGS, the NWS, and emergency managers. When substantial flooding occurs, the USGS mobilizes personnel to collect streamflow data in affected areas. Streamflow data improve flood forecasting and provide data for flood-frequency analysis for floodplain management, design of structures located in floodplains, and related water studies. An important lesson learned is that nature provides environmental signs before and during floods that can help people avoid hazard areas. Important contributions to flood science as a result of the 1976 flood include development of paleoflood methods to interpret the preserved flood-plain stratigraphy to document the number, magnitude, and age of floods that occurred prior to streamflow monitoring. These methods and data on large floods can be used in many mountain-river systems to help us better understand flood hazards and plan for the future. For example, according to conventional flood-frequency analysis, the 1976 Big Thompson flood had a flood recurrence interval of about 100 years. However, paleoflood research indicated the 1976 flood was the largest in about the last 10,000 years in the basin and had a flood recurrence interval in excess of 1,000 years.

Impacts of Low-Flow and Stream-Temperature Changes on Endangered Atlantic Salmon - Current Research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Letcher, Benjamin H.

2008-01-01

Recent climate studies in New England and the northeastern United States have shown evidence of physical changes over time, including trends toward earlier snowmelt runoff, decreasing river ice, and increasing spring water temperatures. A U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) study funded by the National Global Warming and Wildlife Science Center will be investigating changes in summer low streamflows and stream temperatures and the potential effects of those changes on endangered Atlantic salmon populations. The study also will evaluate management options that would be most likely to mitigate the effects of any changes in streamflow and temperature.

Surface-water investigations at Barrow, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Stanley H.

1972-01-01

The U.S. Public Health Service is currently developing plans for a long-term water supply and sewage treatment system for the village of Barrow, Alaska. To assist in planning, the U.S. Geological Survey was requested to initiate a cooperative streamflow data-collection program with the U.S. Public Health Service in June 1972 to determine the availability of surface water and the areal distribution of runoff in the Barrow area. This basic-data report summarizes the streamflow data collected from June 1 through July 10, 1972, at three gaging stations in the Barrow area (fig. 1) and discusses the future data-collection program.

Baseline Characteristics of Jordan Creek, Juneau, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Host, Randy H.; Neal, Edward G.

2004-01-01

Anadromous fish populations historically have found healthy habitat in Jordan Creek, Juneau, Alaska. Concern regarding potential degradation to the habitat by urban development within the Mendenhall Valley led to a cooperative study among the City and Borough of Juneau, Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation, and the U.S. Geological Survey, that assessed current hydrologic, water-quality, and physical-habitat conditions of the stream corridor. Periods of no streamflow were not uncommon at the Jordan Creek below Egan Drive near Auke Bay stream gaging station. Additional flow measurements indicate that periods of no flow are more frequent downstream of the gaging station. Although periods of no flow typically were in March and April, streamflow measurements collected prior to 1999 indicate similar periods in January, suggesting that no flow conditions may occur at any time during the winter months. This dewatering in the lower reaches likely limits fish rearing and spawning habitat as well as limiting the migration of juvenile salmon out to the ocean during some years. Dissolved-oxygen concentrations may not be suitable for fish survival during some winter periods in the Jordan Creek watershed. Dissolved-oxygen concentrations were measured as low as 2.8 mg/L at the gaging station and were measured as low as 0.85 mg/L in a tributary to Jordan Creek. Intermittent measurements of pH and dissolved-oxygen concentrations in the mid-reaches of Jordan Creek were all within acceptable limits for fish survival, however, few measurements of these parameters were made during winter-low-flow conditions. One set of water quality samples was collected at six different sites in the Jordan Creek watershed and analyzed for major ions and dissolved nutrients. Major-ion chemistry showed Jordan Creek is calcium bicarbonate type water with little variation between sampling sites.

Flood-inundation and flood-mitigation modeling of the West Branch Wapsinonoc Creek Watershed in West Branch, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cigrand, Charles V.

2018-03-26

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the city of West Branch and the Herbert Hoover National Historic Site of the National Park Service assessed flood-mitigation scenarios within the West Branch Wapsinonoc Creek watershed. The scenarios are intended to demonstrate several means of decreasing peak streamflows and improving the conveyance of overbank flows from the West Branch Wapsinonoc Creek and its tributary Hoover Creek where they flow through the city and the Herbert Hoover National Historic Site located within the city.Hydrologic and hydraulic models of the watershed were constructed to assess the flood-mitigation scenarios. To accomplish this, the models used the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC–HMS) version 4.2 to simulate the amount of runoff and streamflow produced from single rain events. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) version 5.0 was then used to construct an unsteady-state model that may be used for routing streamflows, mapping areas that may be inundated during floods, and simulating the effects of different measures taken to decrease the effects of floods on people and infrastructure.Both models were calibrated to three historic rainfall events that produced peak streamflows ranging between the 2-year and 10-year flood-frequency recurrence intervals at the USGS streamgage (05464942) on Hoover Creek. The historic rainfall events were calibrated by using data from two USGS streamgages along with surveyed high-water marks from one of the events. The calibrated HEC–HMS model was then used to simulate streamflows from design rainfall events of 24-hour duration ranging from a 20-percent to a 1-percent annual exceedance probability. These simulated streamflows were incorporated into the HEC–RAS model.The unsteady-state HEC–RAS model was calibrated to represent existing conditions within the watershed. HEC–RAS model simulations with the existing conditions and streamflows from the design rainfall events were then done to serve as a baseline for evaluating flood-mitigation scenarios. After these simulations were completed, three different flood-mitigation scenarios were developed with HEC–RAS: a detention-storage scenario, a conveyance improvement scenario, and a combination of both. In the detention-storage scenario, four in-channel detention structures were placed upstream from the city of West Branch to attenuate peak streamflows. To investigate possible improvements to conveying floodwaters through the city of West Branch, a section of abandoned railroad embankment and an old truss bridge were removed in the model, because these structures were producing backwater areas during flooding events. The third scenario combines the detention and conveyance scenarios so their joint efficiency could be evaluated. The scenarios with the design rainfall events were run in the HEC–RAS model so their flood-mitigation effects could be analyzed across a wide range of flood magnitudes.

Linking river management to species conservation using dynamic landscape scale models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Freeman, Mary C.; Buell, Gary R.; Hay, Lauren E.; Hughes, W. Brian; Jacobson, Robert B.; Jones, John W.; Jones, S.A.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Odom, Kenneth R.; Peterson, James T.; Riley, Jeffrey W.; Schindler, J. Stephen; Shea, C.; Weaver, J.D.

2013-01-01

Efforts to conserve stream and river biota could benefit from tools that allow managers to evaluate landscape-scale changes in species distributions in response to water management decisions. We present a framework and methods for integrating hydrology, geographic context and metapopulation processes to simulate effects of changes in streamflow on fish occupancy dynamics across a landscape of interconnected stream segments. We illustrate this approach using a 482 km2 catchment in the southeastern US supporting 50 or more stream fish species. A spatially distributed, deterministic and physically based hydrologic model is used to simulate daily streamflow for sub-basins composing the catchment. We use geographic data to characterize stream segments with respect to channel size, confinement, position and connectedness within the stream network. Simulated streamflow dynamics are then applied to model fish metapopulation dynamics in stream segments, using hypothesized effects of streamflow magnitude and variability on population processes, conditioned by channel characteristics. The resulting time series simulate spatially explicit, annual changes in species occurrences or assemblage metrics (e.g. species richness) across the catchment as outcomes of management scenarios. Sensitivity analyses using alternative, plausible links between streamflow components and metapopulation processes, or allowing for alternative modes of fish dispersal, demonstrate large effects of ecological uncertainty on model outcomes and highlight needed research and monitoring. Nonetheless, with uncertainties explicitly acknowledged, dynamic, landscape-scale simulations may prove useful for quantitatively comparing river management alternatives with respect to species conservation.

Ground-Water Flow Model of the Sierra Vista Subwatershed and Sonoran Portions of the Upper San Pedro Basin, Southeastern Arizona, United States, and Northern Sonora, Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pool, D.R.; Dickinson, Jesse

2007-01-01

A numerical ground-water model was developed to simulate seasonal and long-term variations in ground-water flow in the Sierra Vista subwatershed, Arizona, United States, and Sonora, Mexico, portions of the Upper San Pedro Basin. This model includes the simulation of details of the groundwater flow system that were not simulated by previous models, such as ground-water flow in the sedimentary rocks that surround and underlie the alluvial basin deposits, withdrawals for dewatering purposes at the Tombstone mine, discharge to springs in the Huachuca Mountains, thick low-permeability intervals of silt and clay that separate the ground-water flow system into deep-confined and shallow-unconfined systems, ephemeral-channel recharge, and seasonal variations in ground-water discharge by wells and evapotranspiration. Steady-state and transient conditions during 1902-2003 were simulated by using a five-layer numerical ground- water flow model representing multiple hydrogeologic units. Hydraulic properties of model layers, streamflow, and evapotranspiration rates were estimated as part of the calibration process by using observed water levels, vertical hydraulic gradients, streamflow, and estimated evapotranspiration rates as constraints. Simulations approximate observed water-level trends throughout most of the model area and streamflow trends at the Charleston streamflow-gaging station on the San Pedro River. Differences in observed and simulated water levels, streamflow, and evapotranspiration could be reduced through simulation of climate-related variations in recharge rates and recharge from flood-flow infiltration.

Simulated Hydrologic Responses to Climate Variations and Change in the Merced, Carson, and American River Basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dettinger, M. D.; Cayan, D. R.; Cayan, D. R.; Meyer, M. K.

2001-12-01

Sensitivities of river basins in the Sierra Nevada of California to historical and future climate variations and changes are analyzed by simulating daily streamflow and water-balance responses to simulated climate variations over a continuous 200-year period. The coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land Parallel Climate Model provides the simulated climate histories, and existing hydrologic models of the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers are used to simulate the basin responses. The historical simulations yield stationary climate and hydrologic variations through the first part of the 20th Century until about 1975, when temperatures begin to warm noticeably and when snowmelt and streamflow peaks begin to occur progressively earlier within the seasonal cycle. A future climate simulated with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse-gas and aerosol radiative forcings continues those recent trends through the 21st Century with an attendant +2.5ºC warming and a hastening of snowmelt and streamflow within the seasonal cycle by almost a month. In contrast, a control simulation in which radiative forcings are held constant at 1995 levels for the 50 years following 1995, yields climate and streamflow-timing conditions much like the 1980s and 1990s throughout its duration. Long-term average totals of streamflow and other hydrologic fluxes remain similar to the historical mean in all three simulations. The various projected trends in the business-as-usual simulations become readily visible above simulated natural climatic and hydrologic variability by about 2020.

Hydrologic assessment of three drainage basins in the Pinelands of southern New Jersey, 2004-06

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, Richard L.; Nicholson, Robert S.; Storck, Donald A.

2011-01-01

The New Jersey Pinelands is an ecologically diverse area in the southern New Jersey Coastal Plain, most of which overlies the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system. The demand for groundwater from this aquifer system is increasing as local development increases. Because any increase in groundwater withdrawals has the potential to affect streamflows and wetland water levels, and ultimately threaten the ecological health and diversity of the Pinelands ecosystem, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Jersey Pinelands Commission, began a multi-phase hydrologic investigation in 2004 to characterize the hydrologic system supporting the aquatic and wetland communities of the New Jersey Pinelands area (Pinelands). The current investigation of the hydrology of three representative drainage basins in the Pinelands (Albertson Brook, McDonalds Branch, and Morses Mill Stream basins) included a compilation of existing data; collection of water-level and streamflow data; mapping of the water-table altitude and depth to the water table; and analyses of water-level and streamflow variability, subsurface gradients and flow patterns, and water budgets. During 2004-06, a hydrologic database of existing and new data from wells and stream sites was compiled. Methods of data collection and analysis were defined, and data networks consisting of 471 wells and 106 surface-water sites were established. Hydrographs from 26 water-level-monitoring wells and four streamflow-gaging stations were analyzed to show the response of water levels and streamflow to precipitation and recharge with respect to the locations of these wells and streams within each basin. Water-level hydrographs show varying hydraulic gradients and flow potentials, and indicate that responses to recharge events vary with well depth and proximity to recharge and discharge areas. Results of the investigation provide a detailed characterization of hydrologic conditions, processes, and relations among the components of the hydrologic cycle in the Pinelands. In the Pinelands, recharge replenishes the aquifer system and contributes to groundwater flow, most of which moves to wetlands and surface water where natural discharge occurs. Some groundwater flow is intercepted by supply wells. Recharge rates generally are highest during the non-growing season and are inversely related to evapotranspiration. Analysis of subsurface hydraulic gradients, water-table fluctuations, and streamflow variability indicates a strong linkage between groundwater and wetlands, lakes and streams. Gradient analysis indicates that most wetlands are in groundwater discharge areas, but some wetlands are in groundwater recharge areas. The depth to the water table ranges from zero at surface-water features up to about 10 meters in topographically high areas. Depth to water fluctuates seasonally, and the magnitude of these fluctuations generally increases with distance from surface water. Variations in the permeability of the soils and sediments of the aquifer system strongly affect patterns of water movement through the subsurface and the interaction of groundwater with wetlands, lakes and streams. Mean annual streamflow during 2004-06 ranged from 83 to 106 percent of the long-term mean annual discharge, indicating that the data-collection period can be considered representative of average conditions. Measurements of groundwater levels, stream stage, and stream discharge and locations of start-of-flow are illustrated in basin-wide maps of water-table altitude, depth to the water table, and stream base flow during the period. Water-level data collected along 15 hydrologic transects that span the range of environments from uplands through wetlands to surface water were used to determine hydraulic gradients, potential flow directions, and areas of recharge and discharge. These data provide information about the localized interactions of groundwater with wetlands and surface water. Wetlands were categorized with r

Evaluation of streamflow traveltime and streamflow gains and losses along the lower Purgatoire River, southeastern Colorado, 1984-92

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dash, R.G.; Edelmann, P.R.

1997-01-01

Traveltime and gains and losses within a stream are important basic characteristics of streamflow. The lower Purgatoire River flows more than 160 river miles from Trinidad to the Arkansas River near Las Animas. A better knowledge of streamflow traveltime and streamflow gains and losses along the lower Purgatoire River would enable more informed management decisions about the availability of water supplies for irrigation use in southeastern Colorado. In 1994-95, the U.S.\\x11Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Purgatoire River Water Conservancy District and the Arkansas River Compact Administration, evaluated streamflow traveltime and estimated streamflow gains and losses using historical surface-water records. Traveltime analyses were used along the lower Purgatoire River to determine when streamflows would arrive at selected downstream sites. The substantial effects of diversions for irrigation and unmeasured return flows in the most upstream reach of the river prevented the tracking of streamflow through reach\\x111. Therefore, the estimation of streamflow traveltime for the 60.6 miles of river downstream from Trinidad could not be made.Hourly streamflow data from 1990 through 1994 were used to estimate traveltimes of more than 30 streamflow events for about 100 miles of the lower Purgatoire River. In the middle reach of the river, the traveltime of streamflow for the 40.1\\x11miles ranged from about 11 to about 47\\x11hours, and in the lower reach of the river, traveltime for the 58.5 miles ranged from about 6 to about 61 hours.Traveltime in the river reaches generally increased as streamflow decreased, but also varied for a specific streamflow in both reaches. Streamflow gains and losses were estimated using daily streamflow data at the upstream and downstream sites, available tributary inflow data, and daily diversion data. Differences between surface-water inflows and surface-water outflows in a reach determined the quantity of water gained or lost. In the most upstream reach of the river near Trinidad, difficulties in establishing streamflow traveltimes prevented the estimation of streamflow gains or losses. From 1984 through 1992, more than 2,900 daily estimates of streamflow gains or losses were made for the last 100\\x11miles of the lower Purgatoire River that indicated daily gains and losses in streamflow were common during all four seasons of the year. Although some large daily streamflow gains and losses were computed, most daily estimates indicated small gains and losses in streamflow. The daily median streamflow gain or loss for the middle reach of the river was close to zero during every season, whereas median values for the lower most reach of the river indicated a daily gain in streamflow during every season.

Regression equations for estimating flood flows for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-Year recurrence intervals in Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahearn, Elizabeth A.

2004-01-01

Multiple linear-regression equations were developed to estimate the magnitudes of floods in Connecticut for recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 500 years. The equations can be used for nonurban, unregulated stream sites in Connecticut with drainage areas ranging from about 2 to 715 square miles. Flood-frequency data and hydrologic characteristics from 70 streamflow-gaging stations and the upstream drainage basins were used to develop the equations. The hydrologic characteristics?drainage area, mean basin elevation, and 24-hour rainfall?are used in the equations to estimate the magnitude of floods. Average standard errors of prediction for the equations are 31.8, 32.7, 34.4, 35.9, 37.6 and 45.0 percent for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively. Simplified equations using only one hydrologic characteristic?drainage area?also were developed. The regression analysis is based on generalized least-squares regression techniques. Observed flows (log-Pearson Type III analysis of the annual maximum flows) from five streamflow-gaging stations in urban basins in Connecticut were compared to flows estimated from national three-parameter and seven-parameter urban regression equations. The comparison shows that the three- and seven- parameter equations used in conjunction with the new statewide equations generally provide reasonable estimates of flood flows for urban sites in Connecticut, although a national urban flood-frequency study indicated that the three-parameter equations significantly underestimated flood flows in many regions of the country. Verification of the accuracy of the three-parameter or seven-parameter national regression equations using new data from Connecticut stations was beyond the scope of this study. A technique for calculating flood flows at streamflow-gaging stations using a weighted average also is described. Two estimates of flood flows?one estimate based on the log-Pearson Type III analyses of the annual maximum flows at the gaging station, and the other estimate from the regression equation?are weighted together based on the years of record at the gaging station and the equivalent years of record value determined from the regression. Weighted averages of flood flows for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals are tabulated for the 70 streamflow-gaging stations used in the regression analysis. Generally, weighted averages give the most accurate estimate of flood flows at gaging stations. An evaluation of the Connecticut's streamflow-gaging network was performed to determine whether the spatial coverage and range of geographic and hydrologic conditions are adequately represented for transferring flood characteristics from gaged to ungaged sites. Fifty-one of 54 stations in the current (2004) network support one or more flood needs of federal, state, and local agencies. Twenty-five of 54 stations in the current network are considered high-priority stations by the U.S. Geological Survey because of their contribution to the longterm understanding of floods, and their application for regionalflood analysis. Enhancements to the network to improve overall effectiveness for regionalization can be made by increasing the spatial coverage of gaging stations, establishing stations in regions of the state that are not well-represented, and adding stations in basins with drainage area sizes not represented. Additionally, the usefulness of the network for characterizing floods can be maintained and improved by continuing operation at the current stations because flood flows can be more accurately estimated at stations with continuous, long-term record.

Simulation of streamflow and water quality in the Leon Creek watershed, Bexar County, Texas, 1997-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ockerman, Darwin J.; Roussel, Meghan C.

2009-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the San Antonio River Authority, configured, calibrated, and tested a Hydrological Simulation Program ? FORTRAN watershed model for the approximately 238-square-mile Leon Creek watershed in Bexar County, Texas, and used the model to simulate streamflow and water quality (focusing on loads and yields of selected constituents). Streamflow in the model was calibrated and tested with available data from five U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations for 1997-2004. Simulated streamflow volumes closely matched measured streamflow volumes at all streamflow-gaging stations. Total simulated streamflow volumes were within 10 percent of measured values. Streamflow volumes are greatly influenced by large storms. Two months that included major floods accounted for about 50 percent of all the streamflow measured at the most downstream gaging station during 1997-2004. Water-quality properties and constituents (water temperature, dissolved oxygen, suspended sediment, dissolved ammonia nitrogen, dissolved nitrate nitrogen, and dissolved and total lead and zinc) in the model were calibrated using available data from 13 sites in and near the Leon Creek watershed for varying periods of record during 1992-2005. Average simulated daily mean water temperature and dissolved oxygen at the most downstream gaging station during 1997-2000 were within 1 percent of average measured daily mean water temperature and dissolved oxygen. Simulated suspended-sediment load at the most downstream gaging station during 2001-04 (excluding July 2002 because of major storms) was 77,700 tons compared with 74,600 tons estimated from a streamflow-load regression relation (coefficient of determination = .869). Simulated concentrations of dissolved ammonia nitrogen and dissolved nitrate nitrogen closely matched measured concentrations after calibration. At the most downstream gaging station, average simulated monthly mean concentrations of dissolved ammonia and nitrate concentrations during 1997-2004 were 0.03 and 0.37 milligram per liter, respectively. For the most downstream station, the measured and simulated concentrations of dissolved and total lead and zinc for stormflows during 1993-97 after calibration do not match particularly closely. For base-flow conditions during 1997-2004 at the most downstream station, the simulated/measured match is better. For example, median simulated concentration of total lead (for 2,041 days) was 0.96 microgram per liter, and median measured concentration (for nine samples) of total lead was 1.0 microgram per liter. To demonstrate an application of the Leon Creek watershed model, streamflow constituent loads and yields for suspended sediment, dissolved nitrate nitrogen, and total lead were simulated at the mouth of Leon Creek (outlet of the watershed) for 1997-2004. The average suspended-sediment load was 51,800 tons per year. The average suspended-sediment yield was 0.34 ton per acre per year. The average load of dissolved nitrate at the outlet of the watershed was 802 tons per year. The corresponding yield was 10.5 pounds per acre per year. The average load of lead at the outlet was 3,900 pounds per year. The average lead yield was 0.026 pound per acre per year. The degree to which available rainfall data represent actual rainfall is potentially the most serious source of measurement error associated with the Leon Creek model. Major storms contribute most of the streamflow loads for certain constituents. For example, the three largest stormflows contributed about 64 percent of the entire suspended-sediment load at the most downstream station during 1997-2004.

Progress report on daily flow-routing simulation for the Carson River, California and Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, G.W.

1996-01-01

A physically based flow-routing model using Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) was constructed for modeling streamflow in the Carson River at daily time intervals as part of the Truckee-Carson Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Daily streamflow data for water years 1978-92 for the mainstem river, tributaries, and irrigation ditches from the East Fork Carson River near Markleeville and West Fork Carson River at Woodfords down to the mainstem Carson River at Fort Churchill upstream from Lahontan Reservoir were obtained from several agencies and were compiled into a comprehensive data base. No previous physically based flow-routing model of the Carson River has incorporated multi-agency streamflow data into a single data base and simulated flow at a daily time interval. Where streamflow data were unavailable or incomplete, hydrologic techniques were used to estimate some flows. For modeling purposes, the Carson River was divided into six segments, which correspond to those used in the Alpine Decree that governs water rights along the river. Hydraulic characteristics were defined for 48 individual stream reaches based on cross-sectional survey data obtained from field surveys and previous studies. Simulation results from the model were compared with available observed and estimated streamflow data. Model testing demonstrated that hydraulic characteristics of the Carson River are adequately represented in the models for a range of flow regimes. Differences between simulated and observed streamflow result mostly from inadequate data characterizing inflow and outflow from the river. Because irrigation return flows are largely unknown, irrigation return flow percentages were used as a calibration parameter to minimize differences between observed and simulated streamflows. Observed and simulated streamflow were compared for daily periods for the full modeled length of the Carson River and for two major subreaches modeled with more detailed input data. Hydrographs and statistics presented in this report describe these differences. A sensitivity analysis of four estimated components of the hydrologic system evaluated which components were significant in the model. Estimated ungaged tributary streamflow is not a significant component of the model during low runoff, but is significant during high runoff. The sensitivity analysis indicates that changes in the estimated irrigation diversion and estimated return flow creates a noticeable change in the statistics. The modeling for this study is preliminary. Results of the model are constrained by current availability and accuracy of observed hydrologic data. Several inflows and outflows of the Carson River are not described by time-series data and therefore are not represented in the model.

Instream flow characterization of upper Salmon River basin streams, central Idaho, 2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maret, Terry R.; Hortness, Jon E.; Ott, Douglas S.

2005-01-01

Anadromous fish populations in the Columbia River Basin have plummeted in the last 100 years. This severe decline led to Federal listing of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) stocks as endangered or threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) in the 1990s. Historically, the upper Salmon River Basin (upstream of the confluence with the Pahsimeroi River) in Idaho provided migration corridors and significant habitat for these ESA-listed species, in addition to the ESA-listed bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus). Human development has modified the original streamflow conditions in many streams in the upper Salmon River Basin. Summer streamflow modifications resulting from irrigation practices, have directly affected quantity and quality of fish habitat and also have affected migration and (or) access to suitable spawning and rearing habitat for these fish. As a result of these ESA listings and Action 149 of the Federal Columbia River Power System Biological Opinion of 2000, the Bureau of Reclamation was tasked to conduct streamflow characterization studies in the upper Salmon River Basin to clearly define habitat requirements for effective species management and habitat restoration. These studies include collection of habitat and streamflow information for the Physical Habitat Simulation System model, a widely applied method to determine relations between habitat and discharge requirements for various fish species and life stages. Model results can be used by resource managers to guide habitat restoration efforts by evaluating potential fish habitat and passage improvements by increasing streamflow. In 2004, instream flow characterization studies were completed on Salmon River and Beaver, Pole, Champion, Iron, Thompson, and Squaw Creeks. Continuous streamflow data were recorded upstream of all diversions on Salmon River and Pole, Iron, Thompson, and Squaw Creeks. In addition, natural summer streamflows were estimated for each study site using regional regression equations. This report describes Physical Habitat Simulation System modeling results for bull trout, Chinook salmon, and steelhead trout during summer streamflows. Habitat/discharge relations were summarized for adult and spawning life stages at each study site. Adult fish passage and discharge relations were evaluated at specific transects identified as a potential low-streamflow passage barrier at each study site. Continuous summer water temperature data for selected study sites were summarized and compared with Idaho Water Quality Standards and various water temperature requirements of targeted fish species. Continuous summer water temperature data recorded in 2003 and streamflow relations were evaluated for Fourth of July Creek using the Stream Segment Temperature model that simulates mean and maximum daily water temperatures with changes in streamflow. Results of these habitat studies can be used to prioritize and direct cost-effective actions to improve fish habitat for ESA-listed anadromous and native fish species in the basin. These actions may include acquiring water during critical low-flow periods by leasing or modifying irrigation delivery systems to minimize out-of-stream diversions.

Instream flow characterization of Upper Salmon River basin streams, central Idaho, 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maret, Terry R.; Hortness, Jon E.; Ott, Douglas S.

2006-01-01

Anadromous fish populations in the Columbia River Basin have plummeted in the last 100 years. This severe decline led to Federal listing of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) stocks as endangered or threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) in the 1990s. Historically, the upper Salmon River Basin (upstream of the confluence with the Pahsimeroi River) in Idaho provided migration corridors and significant habitat for these ESA-listed species, in addition to the ESA-listed bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus). Human development has modified the original streamflow conditions in many streams in the upper Salmon River Basin. Summer streamflow modifications resulting from irrigation practices, have directly affected quantity and quality of fish habitat and also have affected migration and (or) access to suitable spawning and rearing habitat for these fish. As a result of these ESA listings and Action 149 of the Federal Columbia River Power System Biological Opinion of 2000, the Bureau of Reclamation was tasked to conduct streamflow characterization studies in the upper Salmon River Basin to clearly define habitat requirements for effective species management and habitat restoration. These studies include collection of habitat and streamflow information for the Physical Habitat Simulation System (PHABSIM) model, a widely applied method to determine relations between habitat and discharge requirements for various fish species and life stages. Model simulation results can be used by resource managers to guide habitat restoration efforts by evaluating potential fish habitat and passage improvements by increasing or decreasing streamflow. In 2005, instream flow characterization studies were completed on Big Boulder, Challis, Bear, Mill, and Morgan Creeks. Continuous streamflow data were recorded upstream of all diversions on Big Boulder. Instantaneous measurements of discharge were also made at selected sites. In addition, natural summer streamflows were estimated for each study site using regional regression equations. This report describes PHABSIM modeling results for bull trout, Chinook salmon, and steelhead trout during summer streamflows. Habitat/discharge relations were summarized for adult and spawning life stages at each study site. In addition, streamflow needs for riffle dwelling invertebrate taxa (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) are presented. Adult fish passage and discharge relations were evaluated at specific transects that were identified as potential low-streamflow passage barriers at each study site. Continuous summer water temperature data for selected study sites were summarized and compared with Idaho Water Quality Standards and various water temperature requirements of targeted fish species. Results of these habitat studies can be used to prioritize and direct cost-effective actions to improve fish habitat for ESA-listed anadromous and native fish species in the basin. These actions may include acquiring water during critical low-flow periods by leasing or modifying irrigation delivery systems to minimize out-of-stream diversions.

Water-resources investigations in Wisconsin: Programs and activities of the U.S. Geological Survey, 1991-92

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maertz, D.E.

1992-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The objectives of this study are to provide continuous discharge records for selected rivers at specific sites to supply the needs for: regulation, analytical studies, definition of statistical properties, trends analysis, determination of the occurrence, and distribution of water in streams for planning. The project is also designed to determine lake levels and to provide discharge for floods, low-flow conditions, and for water-quality investigations. Requests for streamflow data and information relating to streamflow in Wisconsin are answered. Basic data are published annually in "Water Resources Data Wisconsin."

Water-resources investigations in Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maertz, D.E.

1996-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The objectives of this study are to provide continuous discharge records for selected rivers at specific sites to supply the needs for regulation, analytical studies, definition of statistical properties, trends analysis, determination of the occurrence, and distribution of water in streams for planning. The project is also LOCATION: Statewide PROJECT CHIEF: Barry K. Holmstrom PERIOD OF PROJECT: July 1913-Continuing designed to determine lake levels and to provide discharge for floods, low-flow conditions, and for waterquality investigations. Requests for streamflow data and information relating to streamflow in Wisconsin are answered. Basic data are published annually in the report "Water Resources Data-Wisconsin."

Historical perspective of statewide streamflows during the 2002 and 1977 droughts in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuhn, Gerhard

2005-01-01

Since 1890, Colorado has experienced a number of widespread drought periods; the most recent statewide drought began during 1999 and includes 2002, a year characterized by precipitation, snowpack accumulation, and streamflows that were much lower than normal. Because the drought of 2002 had a substantial effect on streamflows in Colorado, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board, began a study in 2004 to analyze statewide streamflows during 2002 and develop a historical perspective of those streamflows. The purpose of this report is to describe an analysis of streamflows recorded throughout Colorado during the drought of 2002, as well as other drought years such as 1977, and to provide some historical perspective of drought-diminished streamflows in Colorado. Because most streamflows in Colorado are derived from melting of mountain snowpacks during April through July, streamflows primarily were analyzed for the snowmelt (high-flow) period, but streamflows also were analyzed for the winter (low-flow) period. The snowmelt period is defined as April 1 through September 30 and the winter period is defined as October 1 through March 31. Historical daily average streamflows were analyzed on the basis of 7, 30, 90, and 180 consecutive-day periods (N-day) for 154 selected stations in Colorado. Methods used for analysis of the N-day snowmelt and winter streamflows include evaluation of trends in the historical streamflow records, computation of the rank of each annual N-day streamflow value for each station, analysis for years other than 2002 and 1977 with drought-diminished streamflows, and frequency analysis (on the basis of nonexceedance probability) of the 180-day streamflows. Ranking analyses for the N-day snowmelt streamflows indicated that streamflows during 2002 were ranked as the lowest or second lowest historical values at 114-123 stations, or about 74-80 percent of the stations; by comparison, the N-day snowmelt streamflows during 1977 were ranked as the lowest or second lowest historical values at 69-87 stations, or about 47-59 percent of the stations. Many of the stations in the mountainous headwaters where snowmelt streamflows were ranked lowest during 2002 were ranked second lowest during 1977. These results indicate that snowmelt streamflows during 2002 were considerably more diminished than those during 1977. The 180-day snowmelt streamflows were ranked among the five lowest historical values at about 90 percent of the stations during 2002 and were ranked among the five lowest historical values at about 77 percent of the stations during 1977. Other years during which the 180-day snowmelt streamflows were ranked among the five lowest values at a substantial percentage of stations include 1934, 1954, 1963, and 1981, but the percentages of stations with 180-day snowmelt streamflows ranked among the five lowest values were smaller during those years than during 2002 and 1977. Frequency analysis of snowmelt streamflows indicated that recurrence intervals for the 180-day snowmelt streamflows during 2002 were greater than 50 years for about 57 percent of the stations and were more than 100 years for about 14 percent of the stations. By comparison, recurrence intervals for the 180-day snowmelt streamflows during 1977 were greater than 50 years only for about 15 percent of the stations and were more than 100 years only for about 1 percent of the stations. Generally, snowmelt streamflows during 2002 were more diminished and have higher recurrence intervals than snowmelt streamflows during 1977. The N-day winter streamflows during 2002 and 1977 were not ranked among the five lowest historical values at about 86-103 stations, or about 58-70 percent of the stations, compared to about 10-27 percent of the stations for the N-day snowmelt streamflows. These results indicate that winter streamflows during the 2002 and 1977 droughts were diminished to a lesser extent than t

Technique for estimation of streamflow statistics in mineral areas of interest in Afghanistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Scott A.; Mack, Thomas J.

2011-01-01

A technique for estimating streamflow statistics at ungaged stream sites in areas of mineral interest in Afghanistan using drainage-area-ratio relations of historical streamflow data was developed and is documented in this report. The technique can be used to estimate the following streamflow statistics at ungaged sites: (1) 7-day low flow with a 10-year recurrence interval, (2) 7-day low flow with a 2-year recurrence interval, (3) daily mean streamflow exceeded 90 percent of the time, (4) daily mean streamflow exceeded 80 percent of the time, (5) mean monthly streamflow for each month of the year, (6) mean annual streamflow, and (7) minimum monthly streamflow for each month of the year. Because they are based on limited historical data, the estimates of streamflow statistics at ungaged sites are considered preliminary.

Assessing the hydrologic response to wildfires in mountainous regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Havel, Aaron; Tasdighi, Ali; Arabi, Mazdak

2018-04-01

This study aims to understand the hydrologic responses to wildfires in mountainous regions at various spatial scales. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to evaluate the hydrologic responses of the upper Cache la Poudre Watershed in Colorado to the 2012 High Park and Hewlett wildfire events. A baseline SWAT model was established to simulate the hydrology of the study area between the years 2000 and 2014. A procedure involving land use and curve number updating was implemented to assess the effects of wildfires. Application of the proposed procedure provides the ability to simulate the hydrologic response to wildfires seamlessly through mimicking the dynamic of the changes due to wildfires. The wildfire effects on curve numbers were determined comparing the probability distribution of curve numbers after calibrating the model for pre- and post-wildfire conditions. Daily calibration and testing of the model produced very good results. No-wildfire and wildfire scenarios were created and compared to quantify changes in average annual total runoff volume, water budgets, and full streamflow statistics at different spatial scales. At the watershed scale, wildfire conditions showed little impact on the hydrologic responses. However, a runoff increase up to 75 % was observed between the scenarios in sub-watersheds with high burn intensity. Generally, higher surface runoff and decreased subsurface flow were observed under post-wildfire conditions. Flow duration curves developed for burned sub-watersheds using full streamflow statistics showed that less frequent streamflows become greater in magnitude. A linear regression model was developed to assess the relationship between percent burned area and runoff increase in Cache la Poudre Watershed. A strong (R2 > 0.8) and significant (p < 0.001) positive correlation was determined between runoff increase and percentage of burned area upstream. This study showed that the effects of wildfires on hydrology of a watershed are scale-dependent. Also, using full streamflow statistics through application of flow duration curves revealed that the wildfires had a higher effect on peak flows, which may increase the risk of flash floods in post-wildfire conditions.

Evaluating climate change impacts on streamflow variability based on a multisite multivariate GCM downscaling method in the Jing River of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhi; Jin, Jiming

2017-11-01

Projected hydrological variability is important for future resource and hazard management of water supplies because changes in hydrological variability can cause more disasters than changes in the mean state. However, climate change scenarios downscaled from Earth System Models (ESMs) at single sites cannot meet the requirements of distributed hydrologic models for simulating hydrological variability. This study developed multisite multivariate climate change scenarios via three steps: (i) spatial downscaling of ESMs using a transfer function method, (ii) temporal downscaling of ESMs using a single-site weather generator, and (iii) reconstruction of spatiotemporal correlations using a distribution-free shuffle procedure. Multisite precipitation and temperature change scenarios for 2011-2040 were generated from five ESMs under four representative concentration pathways to project changes in streamflow variability using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the Jing River, China. The correlation reconstruction method performed realistically for intersite and intervariable correlation reproduction and hydrological modeling. The SWAT model was found to be well calibrated with monthly streamflow with a model efficiency coefficient of 0.78. It was projected that the annual mean precipitation would not change, while the mean maximum and minimum temperatures would increase significantly by 1.6 ± 0.3 and 1.3 ± 0.2 °C; the variance ratios of 2011-2040 to 1961-2005 were 1.15 ± 0.13 for precipitation, 1.15 ± 0.14 for mean maximum temperature, and 1.04 ± 0.10 for mean minimum temperature. A warmer climate was predicted for the flood season, while the dry season was projected to become wetter and warmer; the findings indicated that the intra-annual and interannual variations in the future climate would be greater than in the current climate. The total annual streamflow was found to change insignificantly but its variance ratios of 2011-2040 to 1961-2005 increased by 1.25 ± 0.55. Streamflow variability was predicted to become greater over most months on the seasonal scale because of the increased monthly maximum streamflow and decreased monthly minimum streamflow. The increase in streamflow variability was attributed mainly to larger positive contributions from increased precipitation variances rather than negative contributions from increased mean temperatures.

Hydrologic Drought of Water Year 2006 Compared with Four Major Drought Periods of the 20th Century in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tortorelli, Robert L.

2008-01-01

Water Year 2006 (October 1, 2005, to September 30, 2006) was a year of extreme hydrologic drought and the driest year in the recent 2002-2006 drought in Oklahoma. The severity of this recent drought can be evaluated by comparing it with four previous major hydrologic droughts, water years 1929-41, 1952-56, 1961-72, and 1976-81. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, completed an investigation to summarize the Water Year 2006 hydrologic drought and compare it to the four previous major hydrologic droughts in the 20th century. The period of water years 1925-2006 was selected as the period of record because before 1925 few continuous record streamflow-gaging sites existed and gaps existed where no streamflow-gaging sites were operated. Statewide annual precipitation in Water Year 2006 was second driest and statewide annual runoff in Water Year 2006 was sixth driest in the 82 years of record. Annual area-averaged precipitation totals by the nine National Weather Service Climate Divisions from Water Year 2006 are compared to those during four previous major hydrologic droughts to show how rainfall deficits in Oklahoma varied by region. Only two of the nine climate divisions, Climate Division 1 Panhandle and Climate Division 4 West Central, had minor rainfall deficits, while the rest of the climate divisions had severe rainfall deficits in Water Year 2006 ranging from only 65 to 73 percent of normal annual precipitation. Regional streamflow patterns for Water Year 2006 indicate that Oklahoma was part of the regionwide below-normal streamflow conditions for Arkansas-White-Red River Basin, the sixth driest since 1930. The percentage of long-term stations in Oklahoma (with at least 30 years of record) having below-normal streamflow reached 80 to 85 percent for some days in August and November 2006. Twelve long-term streamflow-gaging sites with periods of record ranging from 62 to 78 years were selected to show how streamflow deficits varied by region. The hydrologic drought worsened going from north to south in Oklahoma, ranging from 45 percent in the north, to just 14 percent in east-central Oklahoma, and 20 percent of normal annual streamflow in the southwest. The low streamflows resulted in only 86.3 percent of the statewide conservation storage available at the end of the water year in major reservoirs, and 7 to 47 percent of hydroelectric power generation at sites in Oklahoma in Calendar Year 2005.

Effects of water-supply reservoirs on streamflow in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Levin, Sara B.

2016-10-06

State and local water-resource managers need modeling tools to help them manage and protect water-supply resources for both human consumption and ecological needs. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, has developed a decision-support tool to estimate the effects of reservoirs on natural streamflow. The Massachusetts Reservoir Simulation Tool is a model that simulates the daily water balance of a reservoir. The reservoir simulation tool provides estimates of daily outflows from reservoirs and compares the frequency, duration, and magnitude of the volume of outflows from reservoirs with estimates of the unaltered streamflow that would occur if no dam were present. This tool will help environmental managers understand the complex interactions and tradeoffs between water withdrawals, reservoir operational practices, and reservoir outflows needed for aquatic habitats.A sensitivity analysis of the daily water balance equation was performed to identify physical and operational features of reservoirs that could have the greatest effect on reservoir outflows. For the purpose of this report, uncontrolled releases of water (spills or spillage) over the reservoir spillway were considered to be a proxy for reservoir outflows directly below the dam. The ratio of average withdrawals to the average inflows had the largest effect on spillage patterns, with the highest withdrawals leading to the lowest spillage. The size of the surface area relative to the drainage area of the reservoir also had an effect on spillage; reservoirs with large surface areas have high evaporation rates during the summer, which can contribute to frequent and long periods without spillage, even in the absence of water withdrawals. Other reservoir characteristics, such as variability of inflows, groundwater interactions, and seasonal demand patterns, had low to moderate effects on the frequency, duration, and magnitude of spillage. The reservoir simulation tool was used to simulate 35 single- and multiple-reservoir systems in Massachusetts over a 44-year period (water years 1961 to 2004) under two water-use scenarios. The no-pumping scenario assumes no water withdrawal pumping, and the pumping scenario incorporates average annual pumping rates from 2000 to 2004. By comparing the results of the two scenarios, the total streamflow alteration can be parsed into the portion of streamflow alteration caused by the presence of a reservoir and the additional streamflow alteration caused by the level of water use of the system.For each reservoir system, the following metrics were computed to characterize the frequency, duration, and magnitude of reservoir outflow volumes compared with unaltered streamflow conditions: (1) the median number of days per year in which the reservoir did not spill, (2) the median duration of the longest consecutive period of no-spill days per year, and (3) the lowest annual flow duration exceedance probability at which the outflows are significantly different from estimated unaltered streamflow at the 95-percent confidence level. Most reservoirs in the study do not spill during the summer months even under no-pumping conditions. The median number of days during which there was no spillage was less than 365 for all reservoirs in the study, indicating that, even under reported pumping conditions, the reservoirs refill to full volume and spill at least once during nondrought years, typically in the spring.Thirteen multiple-reservoir systems consisting of two or three hydrologically connected reservoirs were included in the study. Because operating rules used to manage multiple-reservoir systems are not available, these systems were simulated under two pumping scenarios, one in which water transfers between reservoirs are minimal and one in which reservoirs continually transferred water to intermediate or terminal reservoirs. These two scenarios provided upper and lower estimates of spillage under average pumping conditions from 2000 to 2004.For sites with insufficient data to simulate daily water balances, a proxy method to estimate the three spillage metrics was developed. A series of 4,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the reservoir water balance were run. In each simulation, streamflow, physical reservoir characteristics, and daily climate inputs were randomly varied. Tobit regression equations that quantify the relation between streamflow alteration and physical and operational characteristics of reservoirs were developed from the results of the Monte Carlo simulations and can be used to estimate each of the three spillage metrics using only the withdrawal ratio and the ratio of the surface area to the drainage area, which are available statewide for all reservoirs.A graphical user-interface for the Massachusetts Reservoir Simulation Tool was developed in a Microsoft Access environment. The simulation tool contains information for 70 reservoirs in Massachusetts and allows for simulation of additional scenarios than the ones considered in this report, including controlled releases, dam seepage and leakage, demand management plans, and alternative water withdrawal and transfer rules.

The Rise of Complexity in Flood Forecasting: Opportunities, Challenges and Tradeoffs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, A. W.; Clark, M. P.; Nijssen, B.

2017-12-01

Operational flood forecasting is currently undergoing a major transformation. Most national flood forecasting services have relied for decades on lumped, highly calibrated conceptual hydrological models running on local office computing resources, providing deterministic streamflow predictions at gauged river locations that are important to stakeholders and emergency managers. A variety of recent technological advances now make it possible to run complex, high-to-hyper-resolution models for operational hydrologic prediction over large domains, and the US National Weather Service is now attempting to use hyper-resolution models to create new forecast services and products. Yet other `increased-complexity' forecasting strategies also exist that pursue different tradeoffs between model complexity (i.e., spatial resolution, physics) and streamflow forecast system objectives. There is currently a pressing need for a greater understanding in the hydrology community of the opportunities, challenges and tradeoffs associated with these different forecasting approaches, and for a greater participation by the hydrology community in evaluating, guiding and implementing these approaches. Intermediate-resolution forecast systems, for instance, use distributed land surface model (LSM) physics but retain the agility to deploy ensemble methods (including hydrologic data assimilation and hindcast-based post-processing). Fully coupled numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems, another example, use still coarser LSMs to produce ensemble streamflow predictions either at the model scale or after sub-grid scale runoff routing. Based on the direct experience of the authors and colleagues in research and operational forecasting, this presentation describes examples of different streamflow forecast paradigms, from the traditional to the recent hyper-resolution, to illustrate the range of choices facing forecast system developers. We also discuss the degree to which the strengths and weaknesses of each strategy map onto the requirements for different types of forecasting services (e.g., flash flooding, river flooding, seasonal water supply prediction).

Uncertainties in Forecasting Streamflow using Entropy Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, H.; Singh, V. P.

2017-12-01

Streamflow forecasting is essential in river restoration, reservoir operation, power generation, irrigation, navigation, and water management. However, there is always uncertainties accompanied in forecast, which may affect the forecasting results and lead to large variations. Therefore, uncertainties must be considered and be assessed properly when forecasting streamflow for water management. The aim of our work is to quantify the uncertainties involved in forecasting streamflow and provide reliable streamflow forecast. Despite that streamflow time series are stochastic, they exhibit seasonal and periodic patterns. Therefore, streamflow forecasting entails modeling seasonality, periodicity, and its correlation structure, and assessing uncertainties. This study applies entropy theory to forecast streamflow and measure uncertainties during the forecasting process. To apply entropy theory for streamflow forecasting, spectral analysis is combined to time series analysis, as spectral analysis can be employed to characterize patterns of streamflow variation and identify the periodicity of streamflow. That is, it permits to extract significant information for understanding the streamflow process and prediction thereof. Application of entropy theory for streamflow forecasting involves determination of spectral density, determination of parameters, and extension of autocorrelation function. The uncertainties brought by precipitation input, forecasting model and forecasted results are measured separately using entropy. With information theory, how these uncertainties transported and aggregated during these processes will be described.

Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) for estimating water availability during water scarcity conditions: rainfall-runoff modelling of the ungauged diversion inflows to the Ridracoli water supply reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toth, Elena

2013-04-01

The Ridracoli reservoir is the main drinking water supply reservoir serving the whole Romagna region, in Northern Italy. Such water supply system has a crucial role in an area where the different characteristics of the communities to be served, their size, the mass tourism and the presence of food industries highlight strong differences in drinking water needs. Its operation allows high quality drinking water supply to a million resident customers, plus a few millions of tourists during the summer of people and it reduces the need for water pumping from underground sources, and this is particularly important since the coastal area is subject also to subsidence and saline ingression into aquifers. The system experienced water shortage conditions thrice in the last decade, in 2002, in 2007 and in autumn-winter 2011-2012, when the reservoir water storage fell below the attention and the pre-emergency thresholds, thus prompting the implementation of a set of mitigation measures, including limitations to the population's water consumption. The reservoir receives water not only from the headwater catchment, closed at the dam, but also from four diversion watersheds, linked to the reservoir through an underground water channel. Such withdrawals are currently undersized, abstracting only a part of the streamflow exceeding the established minimum flows, due to the design of the water intake structures; it is therefore crucial understanding how the reservoir water availability might be increased through a fuller exploitation of the existing diversion catchment area. Since one of the four diversion catchment is currently ungauged (at least at the fine temporal scale needed for keeping into account the minimum flow requirements downstream of the intakes), the study first presents the set up and parameterisation of a continuous rainfall-runoff model at hourly time-step for the three gauged diversion watersheds and for the headwater catchment: a regional parameterisation approach is then applied for modelling the streamflow originated in the fourth, ungauged, diversion watershed. Finally, the potential reservoir water availability is estimated, hypothesising to take from the diversion catchments all the streamflow exceeding the minimum flow requirements. The results indicate that modifying the water intake structures might allow a consistent increase in the storage volumes in the reservoir during the water scarcity periods: the water available to the reservoir would in fact - on average - increase of around the 13% of the abstracted annual volume.

Analysis of trends of water quality and streamflow in the Blackstone, Branch, Pawtuxet, and Pawcatuck Rivers, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, 1979 to 2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Savoie, Jennifer G.; Mullaney, John R.; Bent, Gardner C.

2017-02-21

Trends in long-term water-quality and streamflow data from six water-quality-monitoring stations within three major river basins in Massachusetts and Rhode Island that flow into Narragansett Bay and Little Narragansett Bay were evaluated for water years 1979–2015. In this study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management, the Rhode Island Water Resources Board, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, water-quality and streamflow data were evaluated with a Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season smoothing method, which removes the effects of year-to-year variation in water-quality conditions due to variations in streamflow (discharge). Trends in annual mean, annual median, annual maximum, and annual 7-day minimum flows at four continuous streamgages were evaluated by using a time-series smoothing method for water years 1979–2015.Water quality at all monitoring stations changed over the study period. Decreasing trends in flow-normalized nutrient concentrations and loads were observed during the period at most monitoring stations for total nitrogen, nitrite plus nitrate, and total phosphorus. Average flow-normalized loads for water years 1979–2015 decreased in the Blackstone River by up to 46 percent in total nitrogen, 17 percent in nitrite plus nitrate, and 69 percent in total phosphorus. The other rivers also had decreasing flow-normalized trends in nutrient concentrations and loads, except for the Pawtuxet River, which had an increasing trend in nitrite plus nitrate. Increasing trends in flow-normalized chloride concentrations and loads were observed during the study period at all of the rivers, with increases of more than 200 percent in the Blackstone River.Small increasing trends in annual mean daily streamflow were observed in 3 of the 4 rivers, with increases of 1.2 to 11 percent; however, the trends were not significant. All 4 rivers had decreases in streamflow for the annual 7-day minimums, but only 3 of the 4 rivers had decreases that were significant (34 to 54 percent). The Branch River had decreasing annual mean daily streamflow (7.5 percent) and the largest decrease in the annual 7-day minimum streamflow. The Blackstone and Pawtuxet Rivers had the largest increases in annual maximum daily flows but had decreases in the annual 7-day minimum flows.

Synthesis of monthly and annual streamflow records (water years 1950-2003) for Big Sandy, Clear, Peoples, and Beaver Creeks in the Milk River basin, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles

2006-01-01

To address concerns expressed by the State of Montana about the apportionment of water in the St. Mary and Milk River basins between Canada and the United States, the International Joint Commission requested information from the United States government about water that originates in the United States but does not cross the border into Canada. In response to this request, the U.S. Geological Survey synthesized monthly and annual streamflow records for Big Sandy, Clear, Peoples, and Beaver Creeks, all of which are in the Milk River basin in Montana, for water years 1950-2003. This report presents the synthesized values of monthly and annual streamflow for Big Sandy, Clear, Peoples, and Beaver Creeks in Montana. Synthesized values were derived from recorded and estimated streamflows. Statistics, including long-term medians and averages and flows for various exceedance probabilities, were computed from the synthesized data. Beaver Creek had the largest median annual discharge (19,490 acre-feet), and Clear Creek had the smallest median annual discharge (6,680 acre-feet). Big Sandy Creek, the stream with the largest drainage area, had the second smallest median annual discharge (9,640 acre-feet), whereas Peoples Creek, the stream with the second smallest drainage area, had the second largest median annual discharge (11,700 acre-feet). The combined median annual discharge for the four streams was 45,400 acre-feet. The largest combined median monthly discharge for the four creeks was 6,930 acre-feet in March, and the smallest combined median monthly discharge was 48 acre-feet in January. The combined median monthly values were substantially smaller than the average monthly values. Overall, synthesized flow records for the four creeks are considered to be reasonable given the prevailing climatic conditions in the region during the 1950-2003 base period. Individual estimates of monthly streamflow may have large errors, however. Linear regression was used to relate logarithms of combined annual streamflow to water years 1950-2003. The results of the regression analysis indicated a significant downward trend (regression line slope was -0.00977) for combined annual streamflow. A regression analysis using data from 1956-2003 indicated a slight, but not significant, downward trend for combined annual streamflow.

Flow characteristics at U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wolock, David

2003-01-01

This dataset represents point locations and flow characteristics for current (as of November 20, 2001) and historical U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages in the conterminous United States. The flow characteristics were computed from the daily streamflow data recorded at each streamgage for the period of record. The attributes associated with each streamgage include: Station number Station name Station latitude (decimal degrees in North American Datum of 1983, NAD 83) Station longitude (decimal degrees in NAD 83) First date (year, month, day) of streamflow data Last date (year, month, day) of streamflow data Number of days of streamflow data Minimum and maximum daily flow for the period of record (cubic feet per second) Percentiles (1, 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, 75, 80, 90, 95, 99) of daily flow for the period of record (cubic feet per second) Average and standard deviation of daily flow for the period of record (cubic feet per second) Mean annual base-flow index (BFI: see supplemental information) computed for the period of record (fraction, ranging from 0 to 1) Year-to-year standard deviation of the annual base-flow index computed for the period of record (fraction) Number of years of data used to compute the base-flow index (years) Reported drainage area (square miles) Reported contributing drainage area (square miles) National Water Information System (NWIS)-Web page URL for streamgage Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC, 8 digit) Hydrologic landscape region (HLR) River Reach File 1 (RF1) segment identification number (E2RF1##) Station numbers, names, locations, and drainage areas were acquired through the National Water Information System (NWIS)-Web (http://water.usgs.gov/nwis) on November 20, 2001. The streamflow data used to compute flow characteristics were copied from the Water server (water.usgs.gov:/www/htdocs/nwisweb/data1/discharge/) on November 2, 2001. The missing value indicator for all attributes is -99. Some streamflow characteristics are missing for: (1) streamgages measuring flow subject to tidal effects, which cause flow to reverse directions, (2) streamgages with site information but no streamflow data at the time the data were retrieved, and (3) streamgages with record length too short to compute the base-flow index.

Price current-meter standard rating development by the U.S. geological survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hubbard, E.F.; Schwarz, G.E.; Thibodeaux, K.G.; Turcios, L.M.

2001-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed new standard rating tables for use with Price type AA and pygmy current meters, which are employed to measure streamflow velocity. Current-meter calibration data, consisting of the rates of rotation of meters at several different constant water velocities, have shown that the original rating tables are no longer representative of the average responsiveness of newly purchased meters or meters in the field. The new rating tables are based on linear regression equations that are weighted to reflect the population mix of current meters in the field and weighted inversely to the variability of the data at each calibration velocity. For calibration velocities of 0.3 m/s and faster, at which most streamflow measurements are made, the new AA-rating predicts the true velocities within 1.5% and the new pygmy-meter rating within 2.0% for more than 95% of the meters. At calibration velocities, the new AA-meter rating is up to 1.4% different from the original rating, and the new pygmy-meter rating is up to 1.6% different.

Implementation of local grid refinement (LGR) for the Lake Michigan Basin regional groundwater-flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoard, C.J.

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey is evaluating water availability and use within the Great Lakes Basin. This is a pilot effort to develop new techniques and methods to aid in the assessment of water availability. As part of the pilot program, a regional groundwater-flow model for the Lake Michigan Basin was developed using SEAWAT-2000. The regional model was used as a framework for assessing local-scale water availability through grid-refinement techniques. Two grid-refinement techniques, telescopic mesh refinement and local grid refinement, were used to illustrate the capability of the regional model to evaluate local-scale problems. An intermediate model was developed in central Michigan spanning an area of 454 square miles (mi2) using telescopic mesh refinement. Within the intermediate model, a smaller local model covering an area of 21.7 mi2 was developed and simulated using local grid refinement. Recharge was distributed in space and time using a daily output from a modified Thornthwaite-Mather soil-water-balance method. The soil-water-balance method derived recharge estimates from temperature and precipitation data output from an atmosphere-ocean coupled general-circulation model. The particular atmosphere-ocean coupled general-circulation model used, simulated climate change caused by high global greenhouse-gas emissions to the atmosphere. The surface-water network simulated in the regional model was refined and simulated using a streamflow-routing package for MODFLOW. The refined models were used to demonstrate streamflow depletion and potential climate change using five scenarios. The streamflow-depletion scenarios include (1) natural conditions (no pumping), (2) a pumping well near a stream; the well is screened in surficial glacial deposits, (3) a pumping well near a stream; the well is screened in deeper glacial deposits, and (4) a pumping well near a stream; the well is open to a deep bedrock aquifer. Results indicated that a range of 59 to 50 percent of the water pumped originated from the stream for the shallow glacial and deep bedrock pumping scenarios, respectively. The difference in streamflow reduction between the shallow and deep pumping scenarios was compensated for in the deep well by deriving more water from regional sources. The climate-change scenario only simulated natural conditions from 1991-2044, so there was no pumping stress simulated. Streamflows were calculated for the simulated period and indicated that recharge over the period generally increased from the start of the simulation until approximately 2017, and decreased from then to the end of the simulation. Streamflow was highly correlated with recharge so that the lowest streamflows occurred in the later stress periods of the model when recharge was lowest.

Cost-effectiveness of the stream-gaging program in North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mason, R.R.; Jackson, N.M.

1985-01-01

This report documents the results of a study of the cost-effectiveness of the stream-gaging program in North Carolina. Data uses and funding sources are identified for the 146 gaging stations currently operated in North Carolina with a budget of $777,600 (1984). As a result of the study, eleven stations are nominated for discontinuance and five for conversion from recording to partial-record status. Large parts of North Carolina 's Coastal Plain are identified as having sparse streamflow data. This sparsity should be remedied as funds become available. Efforts should also be directed toward defining the efforts of drainage improvements on local hydrology and streamflow characteristics. The average standard error of streamflow records in North Carolina is 18.6 percent. This level of accuracy could be improved without increasing cost by increasing the frequency of field visits and streamflow measurements at stations with high standard errors and reducing the frequency at stations with low standard errors. A minimum budget of $762,000 is required to operate the 146-gage program. A budget less than this does not permit proper service and maintenance of the gages and recorders. At the minimum budget, and with the optimum allocation of field visits, the average standard error is 17.6 percent.

Cost effectiveness of the stream-gaging program in North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryan, Gerald L.

1989-01-01

This report documents results of a cost-effectiveness study of the stream-gaging program In North Dakota. It is part of a nationwide evaluation of the stream-gaging program of the U.S. Geological Survey.One phase of evaluating cost effectiveness is to identify less costly alternative methods of simulating streamflow records. Statistical or hydro logic flow-routing methods were used as alternative methods to simulate streamflow records for 21 combinations of gaging stations from the 94-gaging-station network. Accuracy of the alternative methods was sufficient to consider discontinuing only one gaging station.Operation of the gaging-station network was evaluated by using associated uncertainty in streamflow records. The evaluation was limited to the nonwinter operation of 29 gaging stations in eastern North Dakota. The current (1987) travel routes and measurement frequencies require a budget of about $248/000 and result in an average equivalent Gaussian spread in streamflow records of 16.5 percent. Changes in routes and measurement frequencies optimally could reduce the average equivalent Gaussian spread to 14.7 percent.Budgets evaluated ranged from $235,000 to $400,000. A $235,000 budget would increase the optimal average equivalent Gaussian spread from 14.7 to 20.4 percent, and a $400,000 budget could decrease it to 5.8 percent.

Concentrations of organic contaminants detected during managed flow conditions, San Joaquin River and Old River, California, 2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Orlando, James L.; Kuivila, Kathryn

2005-01-01

Concentrations of organic contaminants were determined in water samples collected at six surface-water sites located along the San Joaquin and Old Rivers during April through June 2001. Water samples were collected, coincident with salmon smolt caging studies conducted by researchers from the Bodega Marine Laboratory at the University of California at Davis to characterize exposure of the salmon smolt to organic contaminants. Sampling occurred prior to, during, and following the implementation of managed streamflow conditions on the San Joaquin and Old Rivers as part of the Vernalis Adaptive Management Plan. Thirteen pesticides were detected in water samples collected during this study, and at least five pesticides were detected in each sample. The total number of pesticide detections varied little between river systems and between sites, but the maximum concentrations of most pesticides occurred in San Joaquin River samples. The total number of pesticides detected varied little over the three time periods. However, during the period of managed streamflow, the fewest number of pesticides were detected at their absolute maximum concentration. Nine wastewater compounds were detected during this study. Suspended-sediment concentrations were similar for the San Joaquin and Old Rivers except during the period of managed streamflow conditions, when suspended-sediment concentration was higher at sites on the San Joaquin River than at sites on the Old River. Values for water parameters (pH, specific conductance, and hardness) were lowest during the period of managed flows.

Flood events across the North Atlantic region - past development and future perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matti, Bettina; Dieppois, Bastien; Lawler, Damian; Dahlke, Helen E.; Lyon, Steve W.

2016-04-01

Flood events have a large impact on humans, both socially and economically. An increase in winter and spring flooding across much of northern Europe in recent years opened up the question of changing underlying hydro-climatic drivers of flood events. Predicting the manifestation of such changes is difficult due to the natural variability and fluctuations in northern hydrological systems caused by large-scale atmospheric circulations, especially under altered climate conditions. Improving knowledge on the complexity of these hydrological systems and their interactions with climate is essential to be able to determine drivers of flood events and to predict changes in these drivers under altered climate conditions. This is particularly true for the North Atlantic region where both physical catchment properties and large-scale atmospheric circulations have a profound influence on floods. This study explores changes in streamflow across North Atlantic region catchments. An emphasis is placed on high-flow events, namely the timing and magnitude of past flood events, and selected flood percentiles were tested for stationarity by applying a flood frequency analysis. The issue of non-stationarity of flood return periods is important when linking streamflow to large-scale atmospheric circulations. Natural fluctuations in these circulations are found to have a strong influence on the outcome causing natural variability in streamflow records. Long time series and a multi-temporal approach allows for determining drivers of floods and linking streamflow to large-scale atmospheric circulations. Exploring changes in selected hydrological signatures consistency was found across much of the North Atlantic region suggesting a shift in flow regime. The lack of an overall regional pattern suggests that how catchments respond to changes in climatic drivers is strongly influenced by their physical characteristics. A better understanding of hydrological response to climate drivers is essential for example for forecasting purposes.

Impacts of Recent Climatic Wetting on Distributed Snow and Streamflow Responses in a Terminal Lake Basin.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Hoy, D.; Mahmood, T. H.; Jeannotte, T.; Todhunter, P. E.

2017-12-01

The recent shift in hydroclimatic conditions in the Northern Great Plains (NGP) has led to an increase in precipitation, rainfall rate, and wetland connectivity over the last few decades. These changes yield an integrated response resulting in high mean annual streamflow and subsequent flooding in many NGP basins such as the terminal Devils Lake Basin (DLB). In this study, we investigate the impacts of recent climatic wetting on distributed hydrologic responses such as snow processes and streamflow using a field-tested and physically-based cold region hydrologic model (CRHM). CHRM is designed for cold prairie regions and has modules to simulate major processes such as blowing snow transport, sublimation, interception, frozen soil infiltration, snowmelt and subsequent streamflow generation. Our modeling focuses on a tributary basin of the DLB known as the Mauvais Coulee Basin (MCB). Since there were no snow observations in the MCB, we conducted a detailed snow survey at distributed locations estimating snow depth, density, and snow water equivalent (SWE) using a prairie snow tube four times during winter of 2016-17. The MCB model was evaluated against distributed snow observations and streamflow measured at the basin outlet (USGS) for the year 2016-2017. Preliminary results indicate that the simulated SWEs at distributed locations and streamflow (NSE ≈ 0.70) are in good agreement with observations. The simulated SWE maps exhibit large spatiotemporal variation during 2016-17 winter due to spatial variability in precipitation, snow redistribution from stubble field to wooded areas, and snow accumulations in small depressions across the subbasins. The main source of snow appears to be the hills and ridges of the eastern and western edges of the basin, while the main sink is the large flat central valleys. The model will be used to examine the effect of recent changes to precipitation and temperature on snow processes and subsequent streamflow for 2004-2017 season. We will also investigate the hydrologic sensitivity to precipitation and temperature changes by altering input temperature and precipitation. Finally, our findings will point toward future process-based studies and simulated hydrologic responses that can be used to prepare flood hazard maps for cities around Devils Lake.

Examination of flood characteristics at selected streamgages in the Meramec River Basin, eastern Missouri, December 2015–January 2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holmes, Robert R.; Koenig, Todd A.; Rydlund, Jr., Paul H.; Heimann, David C.

2016-09-13

OverviewHeavy rainfall resulted in major flooding in the Meramec River Basin in eastern Missouri during late December 2015 through early January 2016. Cumulative rainfall from December 14 to 29, 2015, ranged from 7.6 to 12.3 inches at selected precipitation stations in the basin with flooding driven by the heaviest precipitation (3.9–9.7 inches) between December 27 and 29, 2015. Financial losses from flooding included damage to homes and other structures, damage to roads, and debris removal. Eight of 11 counties in the basin were declared a Federal Disaster Area.The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and St. Louis Metropolitan Sewer District, operates multiple streamgages along the Meramec River and its primary tributaries including the Bourbeuse River and Big River. The period of record for streamflow at streamgages in the basin included in this report ranges from 24 to 102 years. Instrumentation in a streamgage shelter automatically makes observations of stage using a variety of methods (submersible pressure transducer, non-submersible pressure transducer, or non-contact radar). These observations are recorded autonomously at a predetermined programmed frequency (typically either 15 or 30 minutes) dependent on drainage-area size and concomitant flashiness of the stream. Although stage data are important, streamflow data are equally or more important for streamflow forecasting, water-quality constituent loads computation, flood-frequency analysis, and flood mitigation planning. Streamflows are computed from recorded stage data using an empirically determined relation between stage and streamflow termed a “rating.” Development and verification of the rating requires periodic onsite discrete measurements of streamflow throughout time and over the range of stages to define local hydraulic conditions.The purpose of this report is to examine characteristics of flooding that occurred in the Meramec River Basin in December 2015–January 2016 including peak stages, peak streamflows, and the flood-frequency statistics associated with the peak flows. A comparison between the December 2015–January 2016 flood and a similar flood in December 1982 in the Meramec River Basin also is included.

Understanding uncertainties in future Colorado River streamflow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Julie A. Vano,; Bradley Udall,; Cayan, Daniel; Jonathan T Overpeck,; Brekke, Levi D.; Das, Tapash; Hartmann, Holly C.; Hidalgo, Hugo G.; Hoerling, Martin P; McCabe, Gregory J.; Morino, Kiyomi; Webb, Robert S.; Werner, Kevin; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

2014-01-01

The Colorado River is the primary water source for more than 30 million people in the United States and Mexico. Recent studies that project streamf low changes in the Colorado River all project annual declines, but the magnitude of the projected decreases range from less than 10% to 45% by the mid-twenty-first century. To understand these differences, we address the questions the management community has raised: Why is there such a wide range of projections of impacts of future climate change on Colorado River streamflow, and how should this uncertainty be interpreted? We identify four major sources of disparities among studies that arise from both methodological and model differences. In order of importance, these are differences in 1) the global climate models (GCMs) and emission scenarios used; 2) the ability of land surface and atmospheric models to simulate properly the high-elevation runoff source areas; 3) the sensitivities of land surface hydrology models to precipitation and temperature changes; and 4) the methods used to statistically downscale GCM scenarios. In accounting for these differences, there is substantial evidence across studies that future Colorado River streamflow will be reduced under the current trajectories of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions because of a combination of strong temperature-induced runoff curtailment and reduced annual precipitation. Reconstructions of preinstrumental streamflows provide additional insights; the greatest risk to Colorado River streamf lows is a multidecadal drought, like that observed in paleoreconstructions, exacerbated by a steady reduction in flows due to climate change. This could result in decades of sustained streamflows much lower than have been observed in the ~100 years of instrumental record.

Diagnosis of the hydrology of a small Arctic basin at the tundra-taiga transition using a physically based hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krogh, Sebastian A.; Pomeroy, John W.; Marsh, Philip

2017-07-01

A better understanding of cold regions hydrological processes and regimes in transitional environments is critical for predicting future Arctic freshwater fluxes under climate and vegetation change. A physically based hydrological model using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model platform was created for a small Arctic basin in the tundra-taiga transition region. The model represents snow redistribution and sublimation by wind and vegetation, snowmelt energy budget, evapotranspiration, subsurface flow through organic terrain, infiltration to frozen soils, freezing and thawing of soils, permafrost and streamflow routing. The model was used to reconstruct the basin water cycle over 28 years to understand and quantify the mass fluxes controlling its hydrological regime. Model structure and parameters were set from the current understanding of Arctic hydrology, remote sensing, field research in the basin and region, and calibration against streamflow observations. Calibration was restricted to subsurface hydraulic and storage parameters. Multi-objective evaluation of the model using observed streamflow, snow accumulation and ground freeze/thaw state showed adequate simulation. Significant spatial variability in the winter mass fluxes was found between tundra, shrubs and forested sites, particularly due to the substantial blowing snow redistribution and sublimation from the wind-swept upper basin, as well as sublimation of canopy intercepted snow from the forest (about 17% of snowfall). At the basin scale, the model showed that evapotranspiration is the largest loss of water (47%), followed by streamflow (39%) and sublimation (14%). The models streamflow performance sensitivity to a set of parameter was analysed, as well as the mean annual mass balance uncertainty associated with these parameters.

Estimates of Glacier Mass Loss and Contribution to Streamflow in the Wind River Range in Wyoming: Case Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marks, Jeffrey; Piburn, Jesse; Tootle, Glenn

2014-09-11

The Wind River Range is a continuous mountain range, approximately 160 km in length, in west-central Wyoming. The presence of glaciers results in meltwater contributions to streamflow during the late summer (July, August, and September: JAS) when snowmelt is decreasing; temperatures are high; precipitation is low; evaporation rates are high; and municipal, industrial, and irrigation water are at peak demands. Therefore, the quantification of glacier meltwater (e.g., volume and mass) contributions to late summer/early fall streamflow is important, given that this resource is dwindling owing to glacier recession. The current research expands upon previous research efforts and identifies two glaciatedmore » watersheds, one on the east slope (Bull Lake Creek) and one on the west slope (Green River) of the Wind River Range, in which unimpaired streamflow is available from 1966 to 2006. Glaciers were delineated within each watershed and area estimates (with error) were obtained for the years 1966, 1989, and 2006. Glacier volume (mass) loss (with error) was estimated by using empirically based volume-area scaling relationships. For 1966 to 2006, glacier mass contributions to JAS streamflow on the east slope were approximately 8%, whereas those on the west slope were approximately 2%. Furthermore, the volume-area scaling glacier mass estimates compared favorably with measured (stereo pair remote sensed data) estimates of glacier mass change for three glaciers (Teton, Middle Teton, and Teepe) in the nearby Teton Range and one glacier (Dinwoody) in the Wind River Range.« less

Evaluation of long-term trends in hydrologic and water-quality conditions, and estimation of water budgets through 2013, Chester County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sloto, Ronald A.; Reif, Andrew G.

2017-06-02

An evaluation of trends in hydrologic and water quality conditions and estimation of water budgets through 2013 was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Chester County Water Resources Authority. Long-term hydrologic, meteorologic, and biologic data collected in Chester County, Pennsylvania, which included streamflow, groundwater levels, surface-water quality, biotic integrity, precipitation, and air temperature were analyzed to determine possible trends or changes in hydrologic conditions. Statistically significant trends were determined by applying the Kendall rank correlation test; the magnitudes of the trends were determined using the Sen slope estimator. Water budgets for eight selected watersheds were updated and a new water budget was developed for the Marsh Creek watershed. An average water budget for Chester County was developed using the eight selected watersheds and the new Marsh Creek water budget.Annual and monthly mean streamflow, base flow, and runoff were analyzed for trends at 10 streamgages. The periods of record at the 10 streamgages ranged from 1961‒2013 to 1988‒2013. The only statistically significant trend for annual mean streamflow was for West Branch Brandywine Creek near Honey Brook, Pa. (01480300) where annual mean streamflow increased 1.6 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) per decade. The greatest increase in monthly mean streamflow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 47 ft3/s per decade. No statistically significant trends in annual mean base flow or runoff were determined for the 10 streamgages. The greatest increase in monthly mean base flow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 26 ft3/s per decade.The magnitude of peaks greater than a base streamflow was analyzed for trends for 12 streamgages. The period of record at the 12 stream gages ranged from 1912‒2012 to 2004–11. Fifty percent of the streamgages showed a small statistically significant increase in peaks greater than the base streamflow. The greatest increase was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) during 1962‒2012; the increase was 1.8 ft3/s per decade. There were no statistically significant trends in the number of floods equal to or greater than the 2-year recurrence interval flood flow.Twenty‒one monitoring wells were evaluated for statistically significant trends in annual mean water level, minimum annual water level, maximum annual water level, and annual range in water-level fluctuations. For four wells, a small statistically significant increase in annual mean water level was determined that ranged from 0.16 to 0.7 feet per decade. There was poor or no correlation between annual mean groundwater levels and annual mean streamflow and base flow. No correlation was determined between annual mean groundwater level and annual precipitation. Despite rapid population growth and land-use change since 1950, there appears to have been little or no detrimental effects on groundwater levels in 21 monitoring wells.Long-term precipitation and temperature data were available from the West Chester (1893‒2013) and Phoenixville, Pa. (1915‒2013) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather stations. No statistically significant trends in annual mean precipitation or annual mean temperature were determined for either station. Both weather stations had a significant decrease in the number of days per year with precipitation greater than or equal to 0.1 inch. Annual mean minimum and maximum temperatures from the NOAA Southeastern Piedmont Climate Division increased 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit (F) per decade between 1896 and 2014. The number of days with a maximum temperature equal to or greater than 90 degrees F increased at West Chester and decreased at Phoenixville. No statistically significant trend was determined for annual snowfall amounts.Data from 1974 to 2013 for three stream water-quality monitors in the Brandywine Creek watershed were evaluated. The monitors are on the West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena, Pa. (01480617), East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870), and Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000). Statistically significant upward trends were determined for annual mean specific conductance at all three stations, indicating the total dissolved solids load has been increasing. If the current trend continues, the annual mean specific conductance could almost double from 1974 to 2050. The increase in specific conductance likely is due to increases in chloride concentrations, which have been increasing steadily over time at all three stations. No correlation was found between monthly mean specific conductance and monthly mean streamflow or base flow. Statistically significant upward trends in pH were determined for all three stations. Statistically significant upward trends in stream temperature were determined for East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870) and Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000). The stream water-quality data indicate substantial increases in the minimum daily dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Brandywine Creek over time.The Chester County Index of Biotic Integrity (CC-IBI) determined for 1998‒2013 was evaluated for the five biological sampling sites collocated with streamgages. CC-IBI scores are based on a 0‒100 scale with higher scores indicating better stream quality. Statistically significant upward trends in the CC-IBI were determined for West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena, Pa. (01480617) and East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870). No correlation was found between the CC-IBI and streamflow, precipitation, or stream specific conductance, pH, temperature, or dissolved oxygen concentration.A Chester County average water budget was developed using the nine estimated watershed water budgets. Average precipitation was 48.4 inches, and average streamflow was 21.4 inches. Average runoff and base flow were 8.3 and 13.1 inches, respectively, and average evapotranspiration and estimation of errors was 27.2 inches."

Hydrogeology and groundwater availability in Clarke County, Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelms, David L.; Moberg, Roger M.

2010-01-01

The prolonged drought between 1999 and 2002 drew attention in Clarke County, Virginia, to the quantity and sustainability of its groundwater resources. The groundwater flow systems of the county are complex and are controlled by the extremely folded and faulted geology that underlies the county. A study was conducted between October 2002 and October 2008 by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Clarke County, Virginia, to describe the hydrogeology and groundwater availability in the county and to establish a long-term water monitoring network. The study area encompasses approximately 177 square miles and includes the carbonate and siliciclastic rocks of the Great Valley section of the Valley and Ridge Physiographic Province and the metamorphic rocks of the Blue Ridge Physiographic Province (Blue Ridge). High-yielding wells generally tend to cluster along faults, within lineament zones, and in areas of tight folding throughout the county. Water-bearing zones are generally within 250 feet (ft) of land surface; however, median depths are slightly deeper for the hydrogeologic units of the Blue Ridge than for those of the Great Valley section of the county. Total water-level fluctuations between October 2002 and October 2008 ranged from 2.86 to 87.84 ft across the study area, with an average of 24.15 ft. Generally, water-level fluctuations were greatest near hydrologic divides, in isolated elevated areas, and in the Opequon Creek Basin. Seasonally, water-level highs occur in the early spring at the end of the major groundwater recharge period and lows occur in late autumn when evapotranspiration rates begin to decrease. An overall downward trend in water levels between 2003 and 2008, which closely follows a downward trend in annual precipitation over the same period, was observed in a majority of wells in the Great Valley and in some of the wells in the Blue Ridge. Water-level fluctuations in the Blue Ridge tend to follow current meteorological conditions, and seasonal highs and lows tend to shift in response to the current conditions. Springs generally are present along faults and fold axes, and discharges for the study period ranged from dry to 10 cubic feet per second. A similar downward trend in discharges correlates with the trend in water levels and is indicative of an aquifer system that, over time, drains to a base level controlled by springs and streams. Point discharge from springs can occur as the start of flows of streams and creeks, along banks, and as discrete discharge through streambeds in the Great Valley. For the most part, streams, creeks, and rivers in the Great Valley function as aqueducts. Springs in the Blue Ridge have relatively low discharge rates, have small drainage areas, and are susceptible to current meteorological conditions. Estimates of effective groundwater recharge from 2001 to 2007 ranged from 6.4 to 23.0 inches per year (in/yr) in the Dry Marsh Run and Spout Run Basins with averages of 11.6 and 11.9 in/yr, respectively. Base flow accounted for between 80 and 97 percent of mean streamflow and averaged about 90 percent in these basins. The high base-flow index values (percent of streamflow from base flow) in the Dry Marsh Run and Spout Run Basins indicate that groundwater is the dominant source of streamflow during both wet and drought conditions. Between 46 and 82 percent of the precipitation that fell on the Dry Marsh Run and Spout Run Basins from 2001 to 2007 was removed by evapotranspiration, and an average of approximately 30 percent of the precipitation reached the water table as effective recharge. The high permeability of the rocks and low relief in these basins are not conducive for runoff; therefore, on average, only about 3 to 4 percent of the precipitation becomes runoff. Groundwater flow systems in the county are extremely vulnerable to current climatic conditions. Successive years of below-average effective recharge cause declines in water levels, spring discha

Global Floods and Droughts Simulation to Support International Flood Initiative and International Drought Initiative of the UNESCO International Hydrological Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusyev, M.; Takeuchi, K.; Magome, J.; Masood, M.

2015-12-01

One of the main achievements of the IHD/IHP programs is the promotion and enhancement of hydrological data exchange within the global water community. World Catalogue of Very Large Floods, World Water Balance and Water Resources of the Earth are the great examples of some initial collaborative efforts and the FRIEND and Catalogue of Rivers for Southeast Asia and the Pacific are the more recent outcomes. Along with similar efforts by WMO, FAO, IGBP, CEOS and many other national and international institutes, the global hydrological monitoring and nowcast have made a considerable progress last decade and are about to put into practice. Such efforts include global streamflow alert system of U Maryland and GFAS-streamflow of ICHARM and U Yamanshi. Especially the recent achievements of GFAS-streamflow support the current efforts of IHP International Flood Initiative (IFI) and International Drought Initiatives (IDI) by global nowcasts and easily visible indicators in 20-km resolution.

An integrated uncertainty analysis and data assimilation approach for improved streamflow predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogue, T. S.; He, M.; Franz, K. J.; Margulis, S. A.; Vrugt, J. A.

2010-12-01

The current study presents an integrated uncertainty analysis and data assimilation approach to improve streamflow predictions while simultaneously providing meaningful estimates of the associated uncertainty. Study models include the National Weather Service (NWS) operational snow model (SNOW17) and rainfall-runoff model (SAC-SMA). The proposed approach uses the recently developed DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) to simultaneously estimate uncertainties in model parameters, forcing, and observations. An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is configured with the DREAM-identified uncertainty structure and applied to assimilating snow water equivalent data into the SNOW17 model for improved snowmelt simulations. Snowmelt estimates then serves as an input to the SAC-SMA model to provide streamflow predictions at the basin outlet. The robustness and usefulness of the approach is evaluated for a snow-dominated watershed in the northern Sierra Mountains. This presentation describes the implementation of DREAM and EnKF into the coupled SNOW17 and SAC-SMA models and summarizes study results and findings.

Hydrologic Conditions in Kansas, water year 2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

May, Madison R.

2016-03-31

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Federal, State, and local agencies, maintains a long-term network of hydrologic monitoring sites in Kansas. In 2015, the network included about 200 real-time streamgages (hereafter referred to as “gages”), 12 real-time reservoir-level monitoring stations, and 30 groundwater-level monitoring wells. These data and associated analyses provide a unique overview of hydrologic conditions and help improve the understanding of Kansas’s water resources.Real-time data are verified by the USGS throughout the year with regular measurements of streamflow, lake levels, and groundwater levels. These data are used in protecting life and property; and managing water resources for agricultural, industrial, public supply, ecological, and recreational purposes. Yearly hydrologic conditions are characterized by comparing statistical analyses of current and historical water year (WY) data for the period of record. A WY is the 12-month period from October 1 through September 30 and is designated by the year in which it ends.

GAGES-II: Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Falcone, James A.

2011-01-01

This dataset, termed "GAGES II", an acronym for Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow, version II, provides geospatial data and classifications for 9,322 stream gages maintained by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). It is an update to the original GAGES, which was published as a Data Paper on the journal Ecology's website (Falcone and others, 2010b) in 2010. The GAGES II dataset consists of gages which have had either 20+ complete years (not necessarily continuous) of discharge record since 1950, or are currently active, as of water year 2009, and whose watersheds lie within the United States, including Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico. Reference gages were identified based on indicators that they were the least-disturbed watersheds within the framework of broad regions, based on 12 major ecoregions across the United States. Of the 9,322 total sites, 2,057 are classified as reference, and 7,265 as non-reference. Of the 2,057 reference sites, 1,633 have (through 2009) 20+ years of record since 1950. Some sites have very long flow records: a number of gages have been in continuous service since 1900 (at least), and have 110 years of complete record (1900-2009) to date. The geospatial data include several hundred watershed characteristics compiled from national data sources, including environmental features (e.g. climate – including historical precipitation, geology, soils, topography) and anthropogenic influences (e.g. land use, road density, presence of dams, canals, or power plants). The dataset also includes comments from local USGS Water Science Centers, based on Annual Data Reports, pertinent to hydrologic modifications and influences. The data posted also include watershed boundaries in GIS format. This overall dataset is different in nature to the USGS Hydro-Climatic Data Network (HCDN; Slack and Landwehr 1992), whose data evaluation ended with water year 1988. The HCDN identifies stream gages which at some point in their history had periods which represented natural flow, and the years in which those natural flows occurred were identified (i.e. not all HCDN sites were in reference condition even in 1988, for example, 02353500). The HCDN remains a valuable indication of historic natural streamflow data. However, the goal of this dataset was to identify watersheds which currently have near-natural flow conditions, and the 2,057 reference sites identified here were derived independently of the HCDN. A subset, however, noted in the BasinID worksheet as “HCDN-2009”, has been identified as an updated list of 743 sites for potential hydro-climatic study. The HCDN-2009 sites fulfill all of the following criteria: (a) have 20 years of complete and continuous flow record in the last 20 years (water years 1990-2009), and were thus also currently active as of 2009, (b) are identified as being in current reference condition according to the GAGES-II classification, (c) have less than 5 percent imperviousness as measured from the NLCD 2006, and (d) were not eliminated by a review from participating state Water Science Center evaluators. The data posted here consist of the following items:- This point shapefile, with summary data for the 9,322 gages.- A zip file containing basin characteristics, variable definitions, and a more detailed report.- A zip file containing shapefiles of basin boundaries, organized by classification and aggregated ecoregion.- A zip file containing mainstem stream lines (Arc line coverages) for each gage.

Peak-flow frequency analyses and results based on data through water year 2011 for selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana: Chapter C in Montana StreamStats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Steven K.; McCarthy, Peter M.; Dutton, DeAnn M.

2016-04-05

Chapter C of this Scientific Investigations Report documents results from a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Transportation and the Montana Department of Natural Resources, to provide an update of statewide peak-flow frequency analyses and results for Montana. The purpose of this report chapter is to present peak-flow frequency analyses and results for 725 streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana based on data through water year 2011. The 725 streamflow-gaging stations included in this study represent nearly all streamflowgaging stations in Montana (plus some from adjacent states or Canadian Provinces) that have at least 10 years of peak-flow records through water year 2011. For 29 of the 725 streamflow-gaging stations, peak-flow frequency analyses and results are reported for both unregulated and regulated conditions. Thus, peak-flow frequency analyses and results are reported for a total of 754 analyses. Estimates of peak-flow magnitudes for 66.7-, 50-, 42.9-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities are reported. These annual exceedance probabilities correspond to 1.5-, 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals.

Characteristics of streamflow and ground-water conditions in the Boise River Valley, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, C.A.; Dion, N.P.

1974-01-01

The quantity, quality, and distribution in time of streamflow in Boise River below Lucky Peak Lake are drastically affected by storage reservoirs, diversions for irrigation, and by domestic, industrial, and agricultural wastes. Reservoirs usually fill during the nonirrigation season, and streamflow for several miles below Lucky Peak Lake is very low, sometimes less than 10 cubic feet per second (0.28 cubic meters per second). On November 18-19, 1971, when the gates at Lucky Peak Dam were closed, inflow to the Boise River in the study reach totaled 1010 ft3 /s. Practically all inflow was discharged ground water. During the growing season, several thousands of ft3 /s are released from Lucky Peak Lake, but diversions reduce the flows to near zero below some large diversion points in the study reach. Characteristics of streamflow are described by duration curves, duration hydrographs, and low-flow and high-flow frequency curves.Water released from Lucky Peak Lake is of excellent quality. Dissolved solids are usually less than 80 milligrams per liter. Discharged ground water increases the dissolved solids in the river downstream to 400 milligrams per liter or more when dilution from Lucky Peak Lake is slight. Other measures of water quality likewise show the deterioration in a downstream direction in the study reach.

Improving medium-range ensemble streamflow forecasts through statistical post-processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, Pablo; Wood, Andy; Clark, Elizabeth; Nijssen, Bart; Clark, Martyn; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Nowak, Kenneth; Arnold, Jeffrey

2017-04-01

Probabilistic hydrologic forecasts are a powerful source of information for decision-making in water resources operations. A common approach is the hydrologic model-based generation of streamflow forecast ensembles, which can be implemented to account for different sources of uncertainties - e.g., from initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs), weather forecasts, and hydrologic model structure and parameters. In practice, hydrologic ensemble forecasts typically have biases and spread errors stemming from errors in the aforementioned elements, resulting in a degradation of probabilistic properties. In this work, we compare several statistical post-processing techniques applied to medium-range ensemble streamflow forecasts obtained with the System for Hydromet Applications, Research and Prediction (SHARP). SHARP is a fully automated prediction system for the assessment and demonstration of short-term to seasonal streamflow forecasting applications, developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, University of Washington, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. The suite of post-processing techniques includes linear blending, quantile mapping, extended logistic regression, quantile regression, ensemble analogs, and the generalized linear model post-processor (GLMPP). We assess and compare these techniques using multi-year hindcasts in several river basins in the western US. This presentation discusses preliminary findings about the effectiveness of the techniques for improving probabilistic skill, reliability, discrimination, sharpness and resolution.

Spatial patterns of frequent floods in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneeberger, Klaus; Rössler, Ole; Weingartner, Rolf

2017-04-01

Information about the spatial characteristics of high and extreme streamflow is often needed for an accurate analysis of flood risk and effective co-ordination of flood related activities, such as flood defence planning. In this study we analyse the spatial dependence of frequent floods in Switzerland across different scales. Firstly, we determine the average length of high and extreme flow events for 56 runoff time series of Swiss rivers. Secondly, a dependence measure expressing the probability that streamflow peaks are as high as peaks at a conditional site is used to describe and map the spatial extend of joint occurrence of frequent floods across Switzerland. Thirdly, we apply a cluster analysis to identify groups of sites that are likely to react similarly in terms of joint occurrence of high flow events. The results indicate that a time interval with a length of 3 days seems to be most appropriate to characterise the average length of high streamflow events across spatial scales. In the main Swiss basins, high and extreme streamflows were found to be asymptotically independent. In contrast, at the meso-scale distinct flood regions, which react similarly in terms of occurrence of frequent flood, were found. The knowledge about these regions can help to optimise flood defence planning or to estimate regional flood risk properly.

Return to normal streamflows and water levels: summary of hydrologic conditions in Georgia, 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knaak, Andrew E.; Caslow, Kerry; Peck, Michael F.

2015-01-01

Drought conditions, persistent in the area since 2010, continued into the 2013 WY. In February 2013, Georgia was free of extreme (D3) drought conditions, as defined by the U.S. Drought Monitor, for the first time since August 2010 due to extended periods of heavy rainfall (U.S. Drought Monitor, 2013). According to the Office of the State Climatologist, the city of Savannah recorded 9.75 inches of rain in February 2013, the highest monthly total in February out of 143 years of record. Macon and Columbus also received record rainfalls in February 2013. Above-normal precipitation continued in June 2013, and the cities of Augusta and Savannah recorded the wettest June on record. In July, precipitation for the entire State of Georgia was 3.53 inches above normal (Dunkley, 2013). Above-normal rainfall from February to September 2013 increased streamflow and raised groundwater levels, and lakes and reservoirs were raised to full-pool elevations.

Streamflow gains and losses along San Francisquito Creek and characterization of surface-water and ground-water quality, southern San Mateo and northern Santa Clara counties, California, 1996-97

USGS Publications Warehouse

Metzger, Loren F.

2002-01-01

San Francisquito Creek is an important source of recharge to the 22-square-mile San Francisquito Creek alluvial fan ground-water subbasin in the southern San Mateo and northern Santa Clara Counties of California. Ground water supplies as much as 20 percent of the water to some area communities. Local residents are concerned that infiltration and consequently ground-water recharge would be reduced if additional flood-control measures are implemented along San Francisquito Creek. To improve the understanding of the surface-water/ground-water interaction between San Francisquito Creek and the San Francisquito Creek alluvial fan, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated streamflow gains and losses along San Francisquito Creek and determined the chemical quality and isotopic composition of surface and ground water in the study area.Streamflow was measured at 13 temporary streamflow-measurement stations to determine streamflow gains and losses along a 8.4-mile section of San Francisquito Creek. A series of five seepage runs between April 1996 and May 1997 indicate that losses in San Francisquito Creek were negligible until it crossed the Pulgas Fault at Sand Hill Road. Streamflow losses increased between Sand Hill Road and Middlefield Road where the alluvial deposits are predominantly coarse-grained and the water table is below the bottom of the channel. The greatest streamflow losses were measured along a 1.8-mile section of the creek between the San Mateo Drive bike bridge and Middlefield Road; average losses between San Mateo Drive and Alma Street and from there to Middlefield Road were 3.1 and 2.5 acre-feet per day, respectively.Downstream from Middlefield Road, streamflow gains and losses owing to seepage may be masked by urban runoff, changes in bank storage, and tidal effects from San Francisco Bay. Streamflow gains measured between Middlefield Road and the 1200 block of Woodland Avenue may be attributable to urban runoff and (or) ground-water inflow. Water-level measurements from nearby wells indicate that the regional water table may coincide with the channel bottom along this reach of San Francisquito Creek, particularly during the winter and early spring when water levels usually reach their maximum. Streamflow losses resumed below the 1200 block of Woodland Avenue, extending downstream to Newell Road. Discharge from a large storm drain between Newell Road and East Bayshore Road may account for the streamflow gains measured between these sites. Streamflow gains were measured between East Bayshore Road and the Palo Alto Municipal Golf Course, but this reach is difficult to characterize because of the probable influence of high tides.Estimated average streamflow losses totaled approximately 1,050 acre-feet per year for the reaches between USGS stream gage 11164500 at Stanford University (upstream of Junipero Serra Boulevard) and the Palo Alto Municipal Golf Course, including approximately 595 acre-feet per year for the 1.8-mile section between San Mateo Drive and Middlefield Road. Approximately 58 percent, or 550 acre-feet, of the total estimated average annual recharge from San Francisquito Creek occurs between the San Mateo Drive and Middlefield Road sites.The chemical composition of San Francisquito Creek water varies as a function of seasonal changes in hydrologic conditions. Measurements of specific conductance indicate that during dry weather and low flow, the dissolved-solids concentrations tends to be high, and during wet weather, the concentration tends to be low owing to dilution by surface water. Compared with water samples from upstream sites at USGS stream gage 11164500 and San Mateo Drive, the samples from the downstream sites at Alma Street and Woodland Avenue had low specific conductance; low concentrations of magnesium, sodium, sulfate, chloride, boron, and total dissolved solids; high nutrient concentrations; and light isotopic compositions indicating that urban runoff constitutes most of the streamflow

The impact of changing climate conditions on the hydrological behavior of several Mediterranean sub-catchments in Crete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eirini Vozinaki, Anthi; Tapoglou, Evdokia; Tsanis, Ioannis

2017-04-01

Climate change, although is already happening, consists of a big threat capable of causing lots of inconveniences in future societies and their economies. In this work, the climate change impact on the hydrological behavior of several Mediterranean sub-catchments, in Crete, is presented. The sensitivity of these hydrological systems to several climate change scenarios is also provided. The HBV hydrological model has been used, calibrated and validated for the study sub-catchments against measured weather and streamflow data and inputs. The impact of climate change on several hydro-meteorological parameters (i.e. precipitation, streamflow etc.) and hydrological signatures (i.e. spring flood peak, length and volume, base flow, flow duration curves, seasonality etc.) have been statistically elaborated and analyzed, defining areas of increased probability risk associated additionally to flooding or drought. The potential impacts of climate change on current and future water resources have been quantified by driving HBV model with current and future scenarios, respectively, for specific climate periods. This work aims to present an integrated methodology for the definition of future climate and hydrological risks and the prediction of future water resources behavior. Future water resources management could be rationally effectuated, in Mediterranean sub-catchments prone to drought or flooding, using the proposed methodology. The research reported in this paper was fully supported by the Project "Innovative solutions to climate change adaptation and governance in the water management of the Region of Crete - AQUAMAN" funded within the framework of the EEA Financial Mechanism 2009-2014.

A 200-year reconstruction of Kocasu River (Sakarya River Basin, Turkey) streamflow derived from a tree-ring network.

PubMed

Güner, Hüseyin Tuncay; Köse, Nesibe; Harley, Grant L

2017-03-01

The Sakarya River Basin (SRB) contains one of the most important agricultural areas for Turkey. Here, we use a network of 18 tree-ring chronologies and present a reconstruction of the mean June-July Kocasu River discharge, one of the main channels in the SRB, during the period 1803-2002 CE, and place the short period of instrumental flows (since 1953 CE) into historical context. Over the past two centuries, we found 33 dry and 28 wet events and observed the longest wet period between the years 1880 and 1920. The driest years were 1845 and 1873, and the wettest years were 1859 and 1960. Our reconstruction showed that the extreme short-term drought events that occurred in recent years were minor compared to the severity and duration of droughts that occurred previous to instrumental data. We found four pre-instrumental severe and sustained low streamflow events during the periods 1819-1834, 1840-1852, 1861-1875, and 1925-1931, during which historical records show reduced agricultural production, death, famine, plague, economic crisis, and widespread human migrations. More concerning, however, are current hydroclimate conditions in the SRB, marked by decadal-scale mean flows that dip below the long-term mean (1803-1953) in the late 1970s and have since failed to recover. With the Mediterranean region currently likely experiencing the worst drought in the past ca 1000 years due to human-induced climate change, the future outlook of water resource availability in the SRB could prove catastrophic for human and natural systems.

Evaluation of the streamgage network for estimating streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna River Basin in Pennsylvania and New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sloto, Ronald A.; Stuckey, Marla H.; Hoffman, Scott A.

2017-05-10

The current (2015) streamgage network in Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna River Basin in Pennsylvania and New York was evaluated in order to design a network that would meet the hydrologic needs of many partners and serve a variety of purposes and interests, including estimation of streamflow statistics at ungaged sites. This study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection and the Susquehanna River Basin Commission. The study area includes the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna River Basin in Pennsylvania and New York. For this study, 229 streamgages were identified as reference streamgages that could be used to represent ungaged watersheds. Criteria for a reference streamgage are a minimum of 10 years of continuous record, minimally altered streamflow, and a drainage area less than 1,500 square miles. Some of the reference streamgages have been discontinued but provide historical hydrologic information valuable in the determination of streamflow characteristics of ungaged watersheds. Watersheds in the study area not adequately represented by a reference streamgage were identified by examining a range of basin characteristics, the extent of geographic coverage, and the strength of estimated streamflow correlations between gaged and ungaged sites.Basin characteristics were determined for the reference streamgage watersheds and the 1,662 12-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC12) subwatersheds in Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna River Basin using a geographic information system (GIS) spatial analysis and nationally available GIS datasets. Basin characteristics selected for this study include drainage area, mean basin elevation, mean basin slope, percentage of urbanized area, percentage of forested area, percentage of carbonate bedrock, mean annual precipitation, and soil thickness. A GIS spatial analysis was used to identify HUC12 subwatersheds outside the range of basin characteristics of the reference streamgages. There were 320 HUC12 subwatersheds, or 19 percent of the study area, with basin characteristics outside the range represented by the reference streamgage watersheds.A GIS spatial analysis was used to identify geographic gaps in the streamgage network. For each streamgage, a watershed area, called the gage statistical area (GSA), was delineated. The GSA shows the drainage area within a specific drainage-area ratio of the streamgage for transfer of streamflow statistics from that streamgage to ungaged sites on the valid statistical reach of the GSA for a streamgage. In Pennsylvania, a drainage-area ratio of 0.33–3 times the drainage area of the ungaged site was found to perform as well as, if not better than, more traditional ratios such as 0.5–1.5 (or 2) for transfer of selected streamflow statistics. A total of 1,102 HUC12 subwatersheds, or 66 percent of the study area, are outside the GSA for a reference streamgage.The USGS Baseline Streamflow Estimator (BaSE) program was used to determine how well HUC12 subwatersheds outside the streamgage GSAs are represented by the reference streamgage network in Pennsylvania, based on estimated streamflow correlation. The centroid of each HUC12 subwatershed was run through the BaSE program to determine the reference streamgage with the highest estimated streamflow correlation. There were 929 HUC12 subwatersheds in Pennsylvania, or 56 percent of the State, with an estimated correlation coefficient less than 0.96.The results from the basin characteristic, geographic, and streamflow correlation analyses were combined to identify 1,405 HUC12 subwatersheds in Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna River Basin in Pennsylvania and New York that lack a representative reference, based on at least one identified gap. Of the 1,405 HUC12 subwatersheds, 139 exhibited all three gaps, indicating a 8-percent gap in the reference streamgage network.Streamgages in areas with similar hydrologic characteristics and in close proximity to one another can potentially provide similar information (termed streamgages with high substitution potential). Streamgages were considered to have a high substitution potential with a nearby streamgage(s) if (1) the streamflow correlation coefficient was equal to or greater than 0.96, (2) the streamgages had 10 years of concurrent record, and (3) the streamgages are in the same watershed within the GSA of the streamgage. Seventy-four current (2015) streamgages with high substitution potential with at least one other streamgage were identified in the study area. Although these identified streamgages have a high substitution potential, they provide valuable streamflow information to a stakeholder. Selected primary uses of these streamgages were identified to determine the overall need for an individual streamgage.

Streamflow characteristics of small tributaries of Rock Creek, Milk River basin, Montana, base period water years 1983-87

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Hull, J.A.

1990-01-01

Five streamflow-gaging stations were installed in the Rock Creek basin north of the Milk River near Hinsdale, Montana. Streamflow was monitored at these stations and at an existing gaging station upstream on Rock Creek from May 1983 through September 1987. The data collected were used to describe the flow characteristics of four small tributary streams. Annual mean streamflow ranges from 2.8 to 57 cu ft/sec in the mainstem and from 0 to 0.60 cu ft/sec in the tributaries. Monthly mean streamflow ranged from 0 to 528 cu ft/sec in Rock Creek and from zero to 5.3 cu ft/sec in the four tributaries. The six gaged sites show similar patterns of daily mean streamflow during periods of large runoff, but substantial individual variations during periods of lesser runoff. During periods of lesser runoff , the small tributaries may have small daily mean streamflows. At other times, daily mean streamflow at the two mainstem sites decreased downstream. Daily mean streamflow in the tributaries appears to be closely related to daily mean streamflow in the mainstem only during periods of substantial area-wide runoff. Thus, streamflow in the tributaries resulting from local storms or local snowmelt may not contribute to streamflow in the mainstem. (USGS)

Benefits of prescribed flows for salmon smolt survival enhancement vary longitudinally in a highly managed river system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Courter, Ian; Garrison, Thomas; Kock, Tobias J.; Perry, Russell W.; Child, David; Hubble, Joel

2016-01-01

The influence of streamflow on survival of emigrating juvenile Pacific salmonids Oncorhynchus spp. (smolts) is a major concern for water managers throughout the northeast Pacific Rim. However, few studies have quantified flow effects on smolt survival, and available information does not indicate a consistent flow–survival relationship within the typical range of flows under management control. In the Yakima Basin, Washington, the potential effects of streamflow alterations on smolt survival have been debated for over 20 years. Using a series of controlled flow releases from upper basin reservoirs and radiotelemetry, we quantified the relationship between flow and yearling Chinook salmon smolt survival in the 208 km reach between Roza Dam and the Yakima River mouth. A multistate mark–recapture model accounted for weekly variation in flow conditions experienced by tagged fish in four discrete river segments. Smolt survival was significantly associated with streamflow in the Roza Reach [river kilometre (rkm) 208–189] and marginally associated with streamflow in the Sunnyside Reach (rkm 169–77). However, smolt survival was not significantly associated with flow in the Naches and Prosser Reaches (rkm 189–169 and rkm 77–3). This discrepancy indicates potential differences in underlying flow-related survival mechanisms, such as predation or passage impediments. Our results clarify trade-offs between flow augmentation for fisheries enhancement and other beneficial uses, and our study design provides a framework for resolving uncertainties about streamflow effects on migratory fish survival in other river systems. 

Analysis of surface-water data network in Kansas for effectiveness in providing regional streamflow information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Medina, K.D.; Tasker, Gary D.

1985-01-01

The surface water data network in Kansas was analyzed using generalized least squares regression for its effectiveness in providing regional streamflow information. The correlation and time-sampling error of the streamflow characteristic are considered in the generalized least squares method. Unregulated medium-flow, low-flow and high-flow characteristics were selected to be representative of the regional information that can be obtained from streamflow gaging station records for use in evaluating the effectiveness of continuing the present network stations, discontinuing some stations; and/or adding new stations. The analysis used streamflow records for all currently operated stations that were not affected by regulation and discontinued stations for which unregulated flow characteristics , as well as physical and climatic characteristics, were available. The state was divided into three network areas, western, northeastern, and southeastern Kansas, and analysis was made for three streamflow characteristics in each area, using three planning horizons. The analysis showed that the maximum reduction of sampling mean square error for each cost level could be obtained by adding new stations and discontinuing some of the present network stations. Large reductions in sampling mean square error for low-flow information could be accomplished in all three network areas, with western Kansas having the most dramatic reduction. The addition of new stations would be most beneficial for man- flow information in western Kansas, and to lesser degrees in the other two areas. The reduction of sampling mean square error for high-flow information would benefit most from the addition of new stations in western Kansas, and the effect diminishes to lesser degrees in the other two areas. Southeastern Kansas showed the smallest error reduction in high-flow information. A comparison among all three network areas indicated that funding resources could be most effectively used by discontinuing more stations in northeastern and southeastern Kansas and establishing more new stations in western Kansas. (Author 's abstract)

Streamflow, infiltration, and recharge in Arroyo Hondo, New Mexico: Chapter F in Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States (Professional Paper 1703)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, Stephanie J.; Stonestrom, David A.; Constantz, Jim; Ferré, Ty P.A.; Leake, Stanley A.

2007-01-01

Infiltration events in channels that flow only sporadically produce focused recharge to the Tesuque aquifer in the Española Basin. The current study examined the quantity and timing of streamflow and associated infiltration in Arroyo Hondo, an unregulated mountain-front stream that enters the basin from the western slope of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Traditional methods of stream gaging were combined with environmental-tracer based methods to provide the estimates. The study was conducted during a three-year period, October 1999–October 2002. The period was characterized by generally low precipitation and runoff. Summer monsoonal rains produced four brief periods of streamflow in water year 2000, only three of which extended beyond the mountain front, and negligible runoff in subsequent years. The largest peak flow during summer monsoon events was 0.59 cubic meters per second. Snowmelt was the main contributor to annual streamflow. Snowmelt produced more cumulative flow downstream from the mountain front during the study period than summer monsoonal rains.The presence or absence of streamflow downstream of the mountain front was determined by interpretation of streambed thermographs. Infiltration rates were estimated by numerical modeling of transient vertical streambed temperature profiles. Snowmelt extended throughout the instrumented reach during the spring of 2001. Flow was recorded at a station two kilometers downstream from the mountain front for six consecutive days in March. Inverse modeling of this event indicated an average infiltration rate of 1.4 meters per day at this location. For the entire study reach, the estimated total annual volume of infiltration ranged from 17,100 to 246,000 m3 during water years 2000 and 2001. During water year 2002, due to severe drought, streamflow and streambed infiltration in the study reach were both zero.

Characteristics and Classification of Least Altered Streamflows in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Armstrong, David S.; Parker, Gene W.; Richards, Todd A.

2008-01-01

Streamflow records from 85 streamflow-gaging stations at which streamflows were considered to be least altered were used to characterize natural streamflows within southern New England. Period-of-record streamflow data were used to determine annual hydrographs of median monthly flows. The shapes and magnitudes of annual hydrographs of median monthly flows, normalized by drainage area, differed among stations in different geographic areas of southern New England. These differences were gradational across southern New England and were attributed to differences in basin and climate characteristics. Period-of-record streamflow data were also used to analyze the statistical properties of daily streamflows at 61 stations across southern New England by using L-moment ratios. An L-moment ratio diagram of L-skewness and L-kurtosis showed a continuous gradation in these properties between stations and indicated differences between base-flow dominated and runoff-dominated rivers. Streamflow records from a concurrent period (1960-2004) for 61 stations were used in a multivariate statistical analysis to develop a hydrologic classification of rivers in southern New England. Missing records from 46 of these stations were extended by using a Maintenance of Variation Extension technique. The concurrent-period streamflows were used in the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration and Hydrologic Index Tool programs to determine 224 hydrologic indices for the 61 stations. Principal-components analysis (PCA) was used to reduce the number of hydrologic indices to 20 that provided nonredundant information. The PCA also indicated that the major patterns of variability in the dataset are related to differences in flow variability and low-flow magnitude among the stations. Hierarchical cluster analysis was used to classify stations into groups with similar hydrologic properties. The cluster analysis classified rivers in southern New England into two broad groups: (1) base-flow dominated rivers, whose statistical properties indicated less flow variability and high magnitudes of low flow, and (2) runoff-dominated rivers, whose statistical properties indicated greater flow variability and lower magnitudes of low flow. A four-cluster classification further classified the runoff-dominated streams into three groups that varied in gradient, elevation, and differences in winter streamflow conditions: high-gradient runoff-dominated rivers, northern runoff-dominated rivers, and southern runoff-dominated rivers. A nine-cluster division indicated that basin size also becomes a distinguishing factor among basins at finer levels of classification. Smaller basins (less than 10 square miles) were classified into different groups than larger basins. A comparison of station classifications indicated that a classification based on multiple hydrologic indices that represent different aspects of the flow regime did not result in the same classification of stations as a classification based on a single type of statistic such as a monthly median. River basins identified by the cluster analysis as having similar hydrologic properties tended to have similar basin and climate characteristics and to be in close proximity to one another. Stations were not classified in the same cluster on the basis of geographic location alone; as a result, boundaries cannot be drawn between geographic regions with similar streamflow characteristics. Rivers with different basin and climate characteristics were classified in different clusters, even if they were in adjacent basins or upstream and downstream within the same basin.

Evaluation and trends of land cover, streamflow, and water quality in the North Canadian River Basin near Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, 1968–2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esralew, Rachel A.; Andrews, William J.; Smith, S. Jerrod

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Oklahoma City, collected water-quality samples from the North Canadian River at the streamflow-gaging station near Harrah, Oklahoma (Harrah station), since 1968, and at an upstream streamflow-gaging station at Britton Road at Oklahoma City, Oklahoma (Britton Road station), since 1988. Statistical summaries and frequencies of detection of water-quality constituent data from water samples, and summaries of water-quality constituent data from continuous water-quality monitors are described from the start of monitoring at those stations through 2009. Differences in concentrations between stations and time trends for selected constituents were evaluated to determine the effects of: (1) wastewater effluent discharges, (2) changes in land-cover, (3) changes in streamflow, (4) increases in urban development, and (5) other anthropogenic sources of contamination on water quality in the North Canadian River downstream from Oklahoma City. Land-cover changes between 1992 and 2001 in the basin between the Harrah station and Lake Overholser upstream included an increase in developed/barren land-cover and a decrease in pasture/hay land cover. There were no significant trends in median and greater streamflows at either streamflow-gaging station, but there were significant downward trends in lesser streamflows, especially after 1999, which may have been associated with decreases in precipitation between 1999 and 2009 or construction of low-water dams on the river upstream from Oklahoma City in 1999. Concentrations of dissolved chloride, lead, cadmium, and chlordane most frequently exceeded the Criterion Continuous Concentration (a water-quality standard for protection of aquatic life) in water-quality samples collected at both streamflow-gaging stations. Visual trends in annual frequencies of detection were investigated for selected pesticides with frequencies of detection greater than 10 percent in all water samples collected at both streamflow-gaging stations. Annual frequencies of detection of 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid and bromacil increased with time. Annual frequencies of detection of atrazine, chlorpyrifos, diazinon, dichlorprop, and lindane decreased with time. Dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were significantly greater in water samples collected at the Harrah station than at the Britton Road station, whereas specific conductance was greater at the Britton Road station. Concentrations of dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, and fecal coliform bacteria were not significantly different between stations. Daily minimum, mean, and maximum specific conductance collected from continuous water-quality monitors were significantly greater at the Britton Road station than in water samples collected at the Harrah station. Daily minimum, maximum, and diurnal fluctuations of water temperature collected from continuous water-quality monitors were significantly greater at the Harrah station than at the Britton Road station. The daily maximums and diurnal range of dissolved oxygen concentrations were significantly greater in water samples collected at the Britton Road station than at the Harrah station, but daily mean dissolved oxygen concentrations in water at those streamflow-gaging stations were not significantly different. Daily mean and diurnal water temperature ranges increased with time at the Britton Road and Harrah streamflow-gaging stations, whereas daily mean and diurnal specific conductance ranges decreased with time at both streamflow-gaging stations from 1988–2009. Daily minimum dissolved oxygen concentrations collected from continuous water-quality monitors more frequently indicated hypoxic conditions at the Harrah station than at the Britton Road station after 1999. Fecal coliform bacteria counts in water decreased slightly from 1988–2009 at the Britton Road station. The Seasonal Kendall's tau test indicated significant downward trends in

Trends in selected streamflow statistics at 19 long-term streamflow-gaging stations indicative of outflows from Texas to Arkansas, Louisiana, Galveston Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico, 1922-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbie, Dana L.; Wehmeyer, Loren L.

2012-01-01

Trends in selected streamflow statistics during 1922-2009 were evaluated at 19 long-term streamflow-gaging stations considered indicative of outflows from Texas to Arkansas, Louisiana, Galveston Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Water Development Board, evaluated streamflow data from streamflow-gaging stations with more than 50 years of record that were active as of 2009. The outflows into Arkansas and Louisiana were represented by 3 streamflow-gaging stations, and outflows into the Gulf of Mexico, including Galveston Bay, were represented by 16 streamflow-gaging stations. Monotonic trend analyses were done using the following three streamflow statistics generated from daily mean values of streamflow: (1) annual mean daily discharge, (2) annual maximum daily discharge, and (3) annual minimum daily discharge. The trend analyses were based on the nonparametric Kendall's Tau test, which is useful for the detection of monotonic upward or downward trends with time. A total of 69 trend analyses by Kendall's Tau were computed - 19 periods of streamflow multiplied by the 3 streamflow statistics plus 12 additional trend analyses because the periods of record for 2 streamflow-gaging stations were divided into periods representing pre- and post-reservoir impoundment. Unless otherwise described, each trend analysis used the entire period of record for each streamflow-gaging station. The monotonic trend analysis detected 11 statistically significant downward trends, 37 instances of no trend, and 21 statistically significant upward trends. One general region studied, which seemingly has relatively more upward trends for many of the streamflow statistics analyzed, includes the rivers and associated creeks and bayous to Galveston Bay in the Houston metropolitan area. Lastly, the most western river basins considered (the Nueces and Rio Grande) had statistically significant downward trends for many of the streamflow statistics analyzed.

Global Climate Model Simulated Hydrologic Droughts and Floods in the Nelson-Churchill Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieira, M. J. F.; Stadnyk, T. A.; Koenig, K. A.

2014-12-01

There is uncertainty surrounding the duration, magnitude and frequency of historical hydroclimatic extremes such as hydrologic droughts and floods prior to the observed record. In regions where paleoclimatic studies are less reliable, Global Climate Models (GCMs) can provide useful information about past hydroclimatic conditions. This study evaluates the use of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) GCMs to enhance the understanding of historical droughts and floods across the Canadian Prairie region in the Nelson-Churchill Watershed (NCW). The NCW is approximately 1.4 million km2 in size and drains into Hudson Bay in Northern Manitoba, Canada. One hundred years of observed hydrologic records show extended dry and wet periods in this region; however paleoclimatic studies suggest that longer, more severe droughts have occurred in the past. In Manitoba, where hydropower is the primary source of electricity, droughts are of particular interest as they are important for future resource planning. Twenty-three GCMs with daily runoff are evaluated using 16 metrics for skill in reproducing historic annual runoff patterns. A common 56-year historic period of 1950-2005 is used for this evaluation to capture wet and dry periods. GCM runoff is then routed at a grid resolution of 0.25° using the WATFLOOD hydrological model storage-routing algorithm to develop streamflow scenarios. Reservoir operation is naturalized and a consistent temperature scenario is used to determine ice-on and ice-off conditions. These streamflow simulations are compared with the historic record to remove bias using quantile mapping of empirical distribution functions. GCM runoff data from pre-industrial and future projection experiments are also bias corrected to obtain extended streamflow simulations. GCM streamflow simulations of more than 650 years include a stationary (pre-industrial) period and future periods forced by radiative forcing scenarios. Quantile mapping adjusts for magnitude only while maintaining the GCM's sequencing of events, allowing for the examination of differences in historic and future hydroclimatic extremes. These bias corrected streamflow scenarios provide an alternative to stochastic simulations for hydrologic data analysis and can aid future resource planning and environmental studies.

Benchmarking Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Skill in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrigan, Shaun; Smith, Katie; Parry, Simon; Tanguy, Maliko; Prudhomme, Christel

2017-04-01

Skilful hydrological forecasts at weekly to seasonal lead times would be extremely beneficial for decision-making in operational water management, especially during drought conditions. Hydro-meteorological ensemble forecasting systems are an attractive approach as they use two sources of streamflow predictability: (i) initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs), where soil moisture, groundwater and snow storage states can provide an estimate of future streamflow situations, and (ii) atmospheric predictability, where skilful forecasts of weather and climate variables can be used to force hydrological models. In the UK, prediction of rainfall at long lead times and for summer months in particular is notoriously difficult given the large degree of natural climate variability in ocean influenced mid-latitude regions, but recent research has uncovered exciting prospects for improved rainfall skill at seasonal lead times due to improved prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation. However, before we fully understand what this improved atmospheric predictability might mean in terms of improved hydrological forecasts, we must first evaluate how much skill can be gained from IHCs alone. Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) is a well-established method for generating an ensemble of streamflow forecasts in the absence of skilful future meteorological predictions. The aim of this study is therefore to benchmark when (lead time/forecast initialisation month) and where (spatial pattern/catchment characteristics) ESP is skilful across a diverse set of catchments in the UK. Forecast skill was evaluated seamlessly from lead times of 1-day to 12-months and forecasts were initialised at the first of each month over the 1965-2015 hindcast period. This ESP output also provides a robust benchmark against which to assess how much improvement in skill can be achieved when meteorological forecasts are incorporated (next steps). To provide a 'tough to beat' benchmark, several variants of ESP with increasing complexity were produced, including better model representation of hydrological processes and sub-sampling of historic climate sequences (e.g. NAO+/NAO- years). This work is part of the Improving Predictions of Drought for User Decision Making (IMPETUS) project and provides insight to where advancements in atmospheric predictability is most needed in the UK in the context of water management.

Impacts of anthropogenic activities on different hydrological drought characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tijdeman, Erik; Stahl, Kerstin; Bachmair, Sophie

2015-04-01

The natural hazard drought can have severe impacts on a variety of sectors and at a variety of scales. Droughts, here defined as below average water availability, occur everywhere. However, the impact of a drought event is not only influenced by its severity but also by the vulnerability of an area to droughts. Research in catchments with natural flow conditions is crucial to gain process understanding about hydrological droughts. However, the locations of catchments with natural flow are often not representative for regions with a socioeconomic sector that is highly vulnerable to droughts. In these more vulnerable areas, human activities like groundwater extraction can intensify hydrological droughts. On the other hand, human activities can also mitigate or limit the magnitude of drought events. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of different anthropogenic influences on streamflow droughts by comparing hydrological drought characteristics between catchments with natural streamflow and with regulated or otherwise altered streamflow. The study is based on a large set of streamflow records from catchments in Germany, the UK and the USA with either known anthropogenic influences or natural streamflow conditions. Different drought characteristics (duration, deficit, frequency and timing of drought events) are computed for the selected stations. The drought characteristics in catchments influenced by various anthropogenic activities are stratified by the characteristics of anthropogenic influence, but also by similar physical and climatological properties. These stratified groups are then compared to drought characteristics in natural catchments with similar properties. Results show both negative and positive impacts of different human activities on droughts. For example, urbanized areas with low flow regulations show hydrological droughts with shorter durations and lower deficit volumes compared to nearby natural catchments, while records downstream of reservoirs show intensified drought characteristics. The differences between droughts in natural and regulated flow regimes, however, appear to be non-linear and variable with the severity of drought events. In conclusion, this study shows systematic impacts of human activities on different drought characteristics and furthermore reveals that management patterns have limits during severe droughts.

Precipitation, atmospheric deposition, streamflow, and water-quality data from selected sites in the city of Charlotte and Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, 1997–98

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sarver, Kathleen M.; Hazell, W.F.; Robinson, J.B.

1999-01-01

Precipitation data were collected at 46 precipitation sites and 3 atmospheric deposition sites, and hydrologic data were collected at 6 stream sites in the vicinity of Charlotte and Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, from July 1997 through September 1998. Data were collected to identify the type, concentration, and amount of nonpoint-source stormwater runoff in the study area. The data collected include measurements of precipitation; streamflow; physical characteristics, such as water temperature, pH, specific conductance, biochemical oxygen demand, oil and grease, and suspended-sediment concentrations; and concentrations of nutrients, metals and minor constituents, and organic compounds. These data will provide information needed for (1) planned watershed simulation models, (2) estimates of nonpoint-source constituent loadings to the Catawba River, and (3) characterization of water quality in relation to basin conditions. Streamflow and rainfall data have been used to provide early warnings of possible flooding.

Storm and flood of July 5, 1989, in northern New Castle County, Delaware

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paulachok, G.N.; Simmons, R.H.; Tallman, A.J.

1995-01-01

On July 5, 1989, intense rainfall from the remnants of Tropical Storm Allison caused severe flooding in northern New Castle County, Delaware. The flooding claimed three lives, and damage was estimated to be $5 million. Flood conditions were aggravated locally by rapid runoff from expansive urban areas. Record- breaking floods occurred on many streams in northern New Castle County. Peak discharges at three active, continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations, one active crest-stage station, and at two discontinued streamflow-gaging stations exceeded previously recorded maximums. Estimated recurrence intervals for peak flow at the three active, continuous-record streamflow stations exceeded 100 years. The U.S. Geological Survey conducted comprehensive post-flood surveys to determine peak water-surface elevations that occurred on affected streams and their tributaries during the flood of July 5, 1989. Detailed surveys were performed near bridge crossings to provide additional information on the extent and severity of the flooding and the effects of hydraulic constrictions on floodwaters.

Chemical concentrations and instantaneous loads, Green River to the Lower Duwamish Waterway near Seattle, Washington, 2013–15

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conn, Kathleen E.; Black, Robert W.; Vanderpool-Kimura, Ann M.; Foreman, James R.; Peterson, Norman T.; Senter, Craig A.; Sissel, Stephen K.

2015-12-23

Median chemical concentrations in suspended-sediment samples were greater than median chemical concentrations in fine bed sediment (less than 62.5 µm) samples, which were greater than median chemical concentrations in paired bulk bed sediment (less than 2 mm) samples. Suspended-sediment concentration, sediment particle-size distribution, and general water-quality parameters were measured concurrent with the chemistry sampling. From this discrete data, combined with the continuous streamflow record, estimates of instantaneous sediment and chemical loads from the Green River to the Lower Duwamish Waterway were calculated. For most compounds, loads were higher during storms than during baseline conditions because of high streamflow and high chemical concentrations. The highest loads occurred during dam releases (periods when stored runoff from a prior storm is released from the Howard Hanson Dam into the upper Green River) because of the high river streamflow and high suspended-sediment concentration, even when chemical concentrations were lower than concentrations measured during storm events. 

Streamflow and water-quality data for Little Clearfield Creek basin, Clearfield County, Pennsylvania, December 1987 - November 1988

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kostelnik, K.M.; Durlin, R.R.

1989-01-01

Streamflow and water quality data were collected throughout the Little Clearfield Creek basin, Clearfield County, Pennsylvania, from December 1987 through November 1988, to determine the existing quality of surface water over a range of hydrologic conditions. This data will assist the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources during its review of coal mine permit applications. A water quality station near the mouth of Little Clearfield Creek provided continuous record of stream stage, pH, specific conductance, and water temperature. Monthly water quality samples collected at this station were analyzed for total and dissolved metals, nutrients, major cations, and suspended sediment concentrations. Seventeen partial record sites, located throughout the basin, were similarly sampled four times during the study. Streamflow and water quality data obtained at these sites during a winter base flow, a spring storm event, a low summer base flow, and a more moderate summer base flow also are presented. (Author 's abstract)

Ecological health in the Nation's streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carlisle, Daren M.; Woodside, Michael D.

2013-01-01

Aquatic biological communities, which are collections of organisms, are a direct measure of stream health because they indicate the ability of a stream to support life. This fact sheet highlights selected findings of a national assessment of stream health by the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The assessment was unique in that it integrated the condition of three biological communities—algae, macroinvertebrates, and fish—as well as measures of streamflow modification, pesticides, nutrients, and other factors. At least one biological community was altered at 83 percent of assessed streams, and the occurrence of altered communities was highest in urban streams. Streamflows were modified at 86 percent of assessed streams, and increasing severity of streamflow modification was associated with increased occurrence of altered biological communities. Agricultural and urban land use in watersheds may contribute pesticides and nutrients to stream waters, and increasing concentrations of these chemicals were associated with increased occurrence of altered biological communities.

Streamflow gains and losses in the Colorado River in northwestern Burnet and southeastern San Saba Counties, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Braun, Christopher L.; Grzyb, Scott D.

2015-08-12

During the spring 2014 gain-loss survey, 11 reaches were combined into 3 in an attempt to consolidate gains and losses as well as group reaches within the same hydrogeologic units. An unverifiable loss was measured in the reach farthest upstream, which crosses a combination of alluvium and Ellenburger-San Saba aquifer outcrop, whereas an unverifiable gain was measured in the middle reach, which crosses each of the different hydrogeologic units represented in the study area. The reach farthest downstream crosses an area where only the Ellenburger-San Saba aquifer crops out; a streamflow gain of 123 ft3/s was measured in this reach, exceeding the potential error of 93.9 ft3/s. The verifiable streamflow gain in this downstream reach implies the Ellenburger-San Saba aquifer was discharging groundwater to the Colorado River in this part of the study area under the hydrologic conditions of the spring 2014 gain-loss survey.

Streamflow Statistics for the Narraguagus River at Cherryfield, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Nielsen, Joseph P.

2000-01-01

Streamflow data have been collected for the Narraguagus River from 1948 to the present (2000) at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgaging station at Cherryfield, Maine. This report describes a study done by the USGS to determine streamflow statistics using the streamflow record at the Narraguagus River station for use in total water use management plans implemented by State and Federal agencies. Because the effect of changes in irrigation practices from 1993 to the present on streamflow in the Narraguagus basin is unknown and potentially significant, streamflow data after December 1992 were not used in the determination of the streamflow statistics. For the period 1948- 92, monthly median streamflows range from 93.0 ft3/s (August) to 1,000 ft3/s (April). The median streamflow for the selected period of record for all days (1948-92) is 302 ft3/s.

Hydrologic functioning of the deep Critical Zone and contributions to streamflow in a high elevation catchment: testing of multiple conceptual models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwivedi, R.; Meixner, T.; McIntosh, J. C.; Ferre, T. P. A.; Eastoe, C. J.; Minor, R. L.; Barron-Gafford, G.; Chorover, J.

2017-12-01

The composition of natural mountainous waters maintains important control over the water quality available to downstream users. Furthermore, the geochemical constituents of stream water in the mountainous catchments represent the result of the spatial and temporal evolution of critical zone structure and processes. A key problem is that high elevation catchments involve rugged terrain and are subject to extreme climate and landscape gradients; therefore, high density or high spatial resolution hydro-geochemical observations are rare. Despite such difficulties, the Santa Catalina Mountains Critical Zone Observatory (SCM-CZO), Tucson, AZ, generates long-term hydrogeochemical data for understanding not only hydrological processes and their seasonal characters, but also the geochemical impacts of such processes on streamflow chemical composition. Using existing instrumentation and hydrogeochemical observations from the last 9+ years (2009 through 2016 and an initial part of 2017), we employed a multi-tracer approach along with principal component analysis to identify water sources and their seasonal character. We used our results to inform hydrological process understanding (flow paths, residence times, and water sources) for our study site. Our results indicate that soil water is the largest contributor to streamflow, which is ephemeral in nature. Although a 3-dimensional mixing space involving precipitation, soil water, interflow, and deep groundwater end-members could explain most of the streamflow chemistry, geochemical complexity was observed to grow with catchment storage. In terms of processes and their seasonal character, we found soil water and interflow were the primary end-member contributors to streamflow in all seasons. Deep groundwater only contributes to streamflow at high catchment storage conditions, but it provides major ions such as Na, Mg, and Ca that are lacking in other water types. In this way, our results indicate that any future efforts aimed at explaining concentration-discharge behavior of our field site should consider at least three-dimensional mixing space or 4 end-members.

Streamflow and water well responses to earthquakes.

PubMed

Montgomery, David R; Manga, Michael

2003-06-27

Earthquake-induced crustal deformation and ground shaking can alter stream flow and water levels in wells through consolidation of surficial deposits, fracturing of solid rocks, aquifer deformation, and the clearing of fracture-filling material. Although local conditions affect the type and amplitude of response, a compilation of reported observations of hydrological response to earthquakes indicates that the maximum distance to which changes in stream flow and water levels in wells have been reported is related to earthquake magnitude. Detectable streamflow changes occur in areas within tens to hundreds of kilometers of the epicenter, whereas changes in groundwater levels in wells can occur hundreds to thousands of kilometers from earthquake epicenters.

Effects of Surface-Water Diversions on Habitat Availability for Native Macrofauna, Northeast Maui, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gingerich, Stephen B.; Wolff, Reuben H.

2005-01-01

Effects of surface-water diversions on habitat availability for native stream fauna (fish, shrimp, and snails) are described for 21 streams in northeast Maui, Hawaii. Five streams (Waikamoi, Honomanu, Wailuanui, Kopiliula, and Hanawi Streams) were chosen as representative streams for intensive study. On each of the five streams, three representative reaches were selected: (1) immediately upstream of major surface-water diversions, (2) midway to the coast, and (3) near the coast. This study focused on five amphidromous native aquatic species (alamoo, nopili, nakea, opae, and hihiwai) that are abundant in the study area. The Physical Habitat Simulation (PHABSIM) System, which incorporates hydrology, stream morphology and microhabitat preferences to explore relations between streamflow and habitat availability, was used to simulate habitat/discharge relations for various species and life stages, and to provide quantitative habitat comparisons at different streamflows of interest. Hydrologic data, collected over a range of low-flow discharges, were used to calibrate hydraulic models of selected transects across the streams. The models were then used to predict water depth and velocity (expressed as a Froude number) over a range of discharges up to estimates of natural median streamflow. The biological importance of the stream hydraulic attributes was then assessed with the statistically derived suitability criteria for each native species and life stage that were developed as part of this study to produce a relation between discharge and habitat availability. The final output was expressed as a weighted habitat area of streambed for a representative stream reach. PHABSIM model results are presented to show the area of estimated usable bed habitat over a range of streamflows relative to natural conditions. In general, the models show a continuous decrease in habitat for all modeled species as streamflow is decreased from natural conditions. The PHABSIM modeling results from the intensively studied streams were normalized to develop relations between the relative amount of diversion from a stream and the resulting relative change in habitat in the stream. These relations can be used to estimate changes in habitat for diverted streams in the study area that were not intensively studied. The relations indicate that the addition of even a small amount of water to a dry stream has a significant effect on the amount of habitat available. Equations relating stream base-flow changes to habitat changes can be used to provide an estimate of the relative habitat change in the study area streams for which estimates of diverted and natural median base flow have been determined but for which detailed habitat models were not developed. Stream water temperatures, which could have an effect on stream ecology and taro cultivation, were measured in five streams in the study area. In general, the stream temperatures measured at any of the monitoring sites were not elevated enough, based on currently available information, to adversely effect the growth or mortality of native aquatic macrofauna or to cause wetland taro to be susceptible to fungi and associated rotting diseases.

Long-term changes in nitrate conditions over the 20th century in two Midwestern Corn Belt streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelly, Valerie J.; Stets, Edward G.; Crawford, Charles G.

2015-01-01

Long-term changes in nitrate concentration and flux between the middle of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21st century were estimated for the Des Moines River and the Middle Illinois River, two Midwestern Corn Belt streams, using a novel weighted regression approach that is able to detect subtle changes in solute transport behavior over time. The results show that the largest changes in flow-normalized concentration and flux occurred between 1960 and 1980 in both streams, with smaller or negligible changes between 1980 and 2004. Contrasting patterns were observed between (1) nitrate export linked to non-point sources, explicitly runoff of synthetic fertilizer or other surface sources and (2) nitrate export presumably associated with point sources such as urban wastewater or confined livestock feeding facilities, with each of these modes of transport important under different domains of streamflow. Surface runoff was estimated to be consistently most important under high-flow conditions during the spring in both rivers. Nitrate export may also have been considerable in the Des Moines River even under some conditions during the winter when flows are generally lower, suggesting the influence of point sources during this time. Similar results were shown for the Middle Illinois River, which is subject to significant influence of wastewater from the Chicago area, where elevated nitrate concentrations were associated with at the lowest flows during the winter and fall. By modeling concentration directly, this study highlights the complex relationship between concentration and streamflow that has evolved in these two basins over the last 50 years. This approach provides insights about changing conditions that only become observable when stationarity in the relationship between concentration and streamflow is not assumed.

Water chemistry, seepage investigation, streamflow, reservoir storage, and annual availability of water for the San Juan-Chama Project, northern New Mexico, 1942-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKean, Sarah E.; Anderholm, Scott K.

2014-01-01

The Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority supplements the municipal water supply for the Albuquerque metropolitan area, in central New Mexico, with surface water diverted from the Rio Grande. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority, undertook this study in which water-chemistry data and historical streamflow were compiled and new water-chemistry data were collected to characterize the water chemistry and streamflow of the San Juan-Chama Project (SJCP). Characterization of streamflow included analysis of the variability of annual streamflow and comparison of the theoretical amount of water that could have been diverted into the SJCP to the actual amount of water that was diverted for the SJCP. Additionally, a seepage investigation was conducted along the channel between Azotea Tunnel Outlet and the streamflow-gaging station at Willow Creek above Heron Reservoir to estimate the magnitude of the gain or loss in streamflow resulting from groundwater interaction over the approximately 10-mile reach. Generally, surface-water chemistry varied with streamflow throughout the year. Streamflow ranged from high flow to low flow on the basis of the quantity of water diverted from the Rio Blanco, Little Navajo River, and Navajo River for the SJCP. Vertical profiles of the water temperature over the depth of the water column at Heron Reservoir indicated that the reservoir is seasonally stratified. The results from the seepage investigations indicated a small amount of loss of streamflow along the channel. Annual variability in streamflow for the SJCP was an indication of the variation in the climate parameters that interact to contribute to streamflow in the Rio Blanco, Little Navajo River, Navajo River, and Willow Creek watersheds. For most years, streamflow at Azotea Tunnel Outlet started in March and continued for approximately 3 months until the middle of July. The majority of annual streamflow at Azotea Tunnel Outlet occurred from May through June, with a median duration of slightly longer than a month. Years with higher maximum daily streamflow generally are associated with higher annual streamflow than years with lower maximum daily streamflow. The amount of water that can be diverted for the SJCP is controlled by the availability of streamflow and is limited by several factors including legal limits for diversion, limits from the SJCP infrastructure including the size of the diversion dams and tunnels, the capacity of Heron Reservoir, and operational constraints that limit when water can be diverted. The average annual streamflow at Azotea Tunnel Outlet was 94,710 acre-feet, and the annual streamflow at Azotea Tunnel Outlet was approximately 75 percent of the annual streamflow available for the SJCP. The average annual percentage of available streamflow not diverted for the SJCP was 14 percent because of structural limitations of the capacity of infrastructure, 1 percent because of limitations of the reservoir storage capacity, and 29 percent because of the limitations from operations. For most years, the annual available streamflow not diverted for unknown reasons exceeded the sum of the water not diverted because of structural, capacity, and operational limitations.

Urban contribution of pharmaceuticals and other organic wastewater contaminants to streams during differing flow conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kolpin, D.W.; Skopec, M.; Meyer, M.T.; Furlong, E.T.; Zaugg, S.D.

2004-01-01

During 2001, 76 water samples were collected upstream and downstream of select towns and cities in Iowa during high-, normal- and low-flow conditions to determine the contribution of urban centers to concentrations of pharmaceuticals and other organic wastewater contaminants (OWCs) in streams under varying flow conditions. The towns ranged in population from approximately 2000 to 200 000. Overall, one or more OWCs were detected in 98.7% of the samples collected, with 62 of the 105 compounds being found. The most frequently detected compounds were metolachlor (pesticide), cholesterol (plant and animal sterol), caffeine (stimulant), β-sitosterol (plant sterol) and 1,7-dimethylxanthine (caffeine degradate). The number of OWCs detected decreased as streamflow increased from low- (51 compounds detected) to normal- (28) to high-flow (24) conditions. Antibiotics and other prescription drugs were only frequently detected during low-flow conditions. During low-flow conditions, 15 compounds (out of the 23) and ten compound groups (out of 11) detected in more than 10% of the streams sampled had significantly greater concentrations in samples collected downstream than in those collected upstream of the urban centers. Conversely, no significant differences in the concentrations were found during high-flow conditions. Thus, the urban contribution of OWCs to streams became progressively muted as streamflow increased.

Overview of drought and hydrologic conditions in the United States and southern Canada, water years 1986-90

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holmes, Sandra L.

1992-01-01

This report describes the drought and hydrologic conditions in the United States and southern Canada during the 1986-90 water years. This drought, which spread from the Eastern United States, where it was referred to as 'the drought of the century,' through the Midwest to the West Coast, brought to mind the Dust Bowl era of the 1930's. However, generally localized floods were numerous, but only one hurricane (Hugo) was of any consequence to the United States, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands during a coincident period of anomalously low hurricane activity. The drought began in early 1984 as an 'agricultural drought,' which is a precipitation deficiency that results in a lack of soil moisture that is detrimental to agricultural production. This condition did not affect streamflow until about March or April 1986. A 'hydrological drought,' which is far more serious and widespread than an agricultural drought, was apparent from the low streamflow conditions that occurred after April 1986. To illustrate the changing nature of the drought, maps and synopses of monthly hydrologic conditions for the water years 1986-90 are presented.

Instream flow characterization of upper Salmon River Basin streams, Central Idaho, 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maret, Terry R.; Hortness, Jon E.; Ott, Douglas S.

2004-01-01

Anadromous fish populations in the Columbia River Basin have plummeted in the last 100 years. This severe decline led to Federal listing of chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) stocks as endangered or threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) in the 1990s. Historically, the upper Salmon River Basin (upstream from the confluence with the Pahsimeroi River) in Idaho provided migration corridors and significant habitat for these ESA-listed species, in addition to the federally listed bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus). Human development has modified the original streamflow conditions in many streams in the upper Salmon River Basin. Summer streamflow modifications, as a result of irrigation practices, have directly affected the quantity and quality of fish habitat and also have affected migration and (or) access to suitable spawning and rearing habitat for these fish. As a result of these ESA listings and Action 149 of the Federal Columbia River Power System Biological Opinion of 2000, the Bureau of Reclamation was tasked to conduct streamflow characterization studies in the upper Salmon River Basin to clearly define habitat requirements for effective species management and habitat restoration. These studies include the collection of habitat and streamflow information for the Physical Habitat Simulation (PHABSIM) model, a widely applied method to determine relations between habitat and discharge requirements for various fish species and life stages. Model results can be used by resource managers to guide habitat restoration efforts in the evaluation of potential fish habitat and passage improvements by increasing streamflow. Instream flow characterization studies were completed on Pole, Fourth of July, Elk, and Valley Creeks during 2003. Continuous streamflow data were collected upstream from all diversions on each stream. In addition, natural summer streamflows were estimated for each study site using regression equations. PHABSIM results are presented for bull trout, chinook salmon, and steelhead trout over a range of summer streamflows. Habitat/discharge relations are summarized for juvenile, adult, and spawning life stages at each study site. Adult fish passage and discharge relations are evaluated at specific transects identified as a potential low-streamflow passage barrier at each study site. Continuous summer water temperature data for selected study sites also are summarized and compared with Idaho Water Quality Standards and various temperature requirements of targeted fish species. Results of these habitat studies can be used to prioritize and direct cost-effective actions to improve fish habitat for ESA-listed anadromous and native fish species in the basin. These actions may include acquiring water during critical low-flow periods by leasing or modifying irrigation delivery systems to minimize out-of-stream diversions.

Montana StreamStats—A method for retrieving basin and streamflow characteristics in Montana: Chapter A in Montana StreamStats

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCarthy, Peter M.; Dutton, DeAnn M.; Sando, Steven K.; Sando, Roy

2016-04-05

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides streamflow characteristics and other related information needed by water-resource managers to protect people and property from floods, plan and manage water-resource activities, and protect water quality. Streamflow characteristics provided by the USGS, such as peak-flow and low-flow frequencies for streamflow-gaging stations, are frequently used by engineers, flood forecasters, land managers, biologists, and others to guide their everyday decisions. In addition to providing streamflow characteristics at streamflow-gaging stations, the USGS also develops regional regression equations and drainage area-adjustment methods for estimating streamflow characteristics at locations on ungaged streams. Regional regression equations can be complex and often require users to determine several basin characteristics, which are physical and climatic characteristics of the stream and its drainage basin. Obtaining these basin characteristics for streamflow-gaging stations and ungaged sites traditionally has been time consuming and subjective, and led to inconsistent results.StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system application that was created by the USGS to provide users with access to an assortment of analytical tools that are useful for water-resource planning and management. StreamStats allows users to easily obtain streamflow and basin characteristics for USGS streamflow-gaging stations and user-selected locations on ungaged streams. The USGS, in cooperation with Montana Department of Transportation, Montana Department of Environmental Quality, and Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, completed a study to develop a StreamStats application for Montana, compute streamflow characteristics at streamflow-gaging stations, and develop regional regression equations to estimate streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites. Chapter A of this Scientific Investigations Report describes the Montana StreamStats application and the datasets, streamflow-gaging stations, streamflow characteristics, and regression equations (as described fully in Chapters B through G of this report) that are used for development of the StreamStats application for Montana.

Spatial patterns of March and September streamflow trends in Pacific Northwest Streams, 1958-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chang, Heejun; Jung, Il-Won; Steele, Madeline; Gannett, Marshall

2012-01-01

Summer streamflow is a vital water resource for municipal and domestic water supplies, irrigation, salmonid habitat, recreation, and water-related ecosystem services in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) in the United States. This study detects significant negative trends in September absolute streamflow in a majority of 68 stream-gauging stations located on unregulated streams in the PNW from 1958 to 2008. The proportion of March streamflow to annual streamflow increases in most stations over 1,000 m elevation, with a baseflow index of less than 50, while absolute March streamflow does not increase in most stations. The declining trends of September absolute streamflow are strongly associated with seven-day low flow, January–March maximum temperature trends, and the size of the basin (19–7,260 km2), while the increasing trends of the fraction of March streamflow are associated with elevation, April 1 snow water equivalent, March precipitation, center timing of streamflow, and October–December minimum temperature trends. Compared with ordinary least squares (OLS) estimated regression models, spatial error regression and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models effectively remove spatial autocorrelation in residuals. The GWR model results show spatial gradients of local R 2 values with consistently higher local R 2 values in the northern Cascades. This finding illustrates that different hydrologic landscape factors, such as geology and seasonal distribution of precipitation, also influence streamflow trends in the PNW. In addition, our spatial analysis model results show that considering various geographic factors help clarify the dynamics of streamflow trends over a large geographical area, supporting a spatial analysis approach over aspatial OLS-estimated regression models for predicting streamflow trends. Results indicate that transitional rain–snow surface water-dominated basins are likely to have reduced summer streamflow under warming scenarios. Consequently, a better understanding of the relationships among summer streamflow, precipitation, snowmelt, elevation, and geology can help water managers predict the response of regional summer streamflow to global warming.

The National Water Data Exchange-capabilities and trends in the dissemination and exchange of water data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burton, J.S.

1998-01-01

This paper discusses the programmes of the National Water Data Exchange (NAWDEX) in providing access to US Geological Survey (USGS) water data and water-related information. NAWDEX dissseminates water data and water-related information by working cooperatively through a network of 68 Assistance Centers to more than 430 member organizations. In addition, NAWDEX provides access to the USGS Water Data Storage System (WATSTORE) and the US Environmental Protection Agency's Storage and Retrieval System (STORET). Recently, the trend has been to make water resources data available over the World Wide Web on the Internet. The NAWDEX homepage, located at Uniform Resource Locator http://h2o.er.usgs.gov/public/nawdex/nawdex.html, provides links to (a) Selected Water Resources Abstracts; (b) National Water Conditions Report; (c) historical streamflow data: and (d) real-time streamflow conditions. NAWDEX also transfers data to users over the Internet through the file transfer protocol (FTP).

Improved large-scale hydrological modelling through the assimilation of streamflow and downscaled satellite soil moisture observations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López López, Patricia; Wanders, Niko; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; Renzullo, Luigi; Sterk, Geert; Schellekens, Jaap; Bierkens, Marc

2015-04-01

The coarse spatial resolution of global hydrological models (typically > 0.25o) often limits their ability to resolve key water balance processes for many river basins and thus compromises their suitability for water resources management, especially when compared to locally-tunes river models. A possible solution to the problem may be to drive the coarse resolution models with high-resolution meteorological data as well as to assimilate ground-based and remotely-sensed observations of key water cycle variables. While this would improve the modelling resolution of the global model, the impact of prediction accuracy remains largely an open question. In this study we investigated the impact that assimilating streamflow and satellite soil moisture observations have on global hydrological model estimation, driven by coarse- and high-resolution meteorological observations, for the Murrumbidgee river basin in Australia. The PCR-GLOBWB global hydrological model is forced with downscaled global climatological data (from 0.5o downscaled to 0.1o resolution) obtained from the WATCH Forcing Data (WFDEI) and local high resolution gauging station based gridded datasets (0.05o), sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Downscaled satellite derived soil moisture (from 0.5o downscaled to 0.1o resolution) from AMSR-E and streamflow observations collected from 25 gauging stations are assimilated using an ensemble Kalman filter. Several scenarios are analysed to explore the added value of data assimilation considering both local and global climatological data. Results show that the assimilation of streamflow observations result in the largest improvement of the model estimates. The joint assimilation of both streamflow and downscaled soil moisture observations leads to further improved in streamflow simulations (10% reduction in RMSE), mainly in the headwater catchments (up to 10,000 km2). Results also show that the added contribution of data assimilation, for both soil moisture and streamflow, is more pronounced when the global meteorological data are used to force the models. This is caused by the higher uncertainty and coarser resolution of the global forcing. This study demonstrates that it is possible to improve hydrological simulations forced by coarse resolution meteorological data with downscaled satellite soil moisture and streamflow observations and bring them closer to a hydrological model forced with local climatological data. These findings are important in light of the efforts that are currently done to go to global hyper-resolution modelling and can significantly help to advance this research.

Techniques for estimating selected streamflow characteristics of rural unregulated streams in Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.; Whitehead, Matthew T.

2002-01-01

This report provides equations for estimating mean annual streamflow, mean monthly streamflows, harmonic mean streamflow, and streamflow quartiles (the 25th-, 50th-, and 75th-percentile streamflows) as a function of selected basin characteristics for rural, unregulated streams in Ohio. The equations were developed from streamflow statistics and basin-characteristics data for as many as 219 active or discontinued streamflow-gaging stations on rural, unregulated streams in Ohio with 10 or more years of homogenous daily streamflow record. Streamflow statistics and basin-characteristics data for the 219 stations are presented in this report. Simple equations (based on drainage area only) and best-fit equations (based on drainage area and at least two other basin characteristics) were developed by means of ordinary least-squares regression techniques. Application of the best-fit equations generally involves quantification of basin characteristics that require or are facilitated by use of a geographic information system. In contrast, the simple equations can be used with information that can be obtained without use of a geographic information system; however, the simple equations have larger prediction errors than the best-fit equations and exhibit geographic biases for most streamflow statistics. The best-fit equations should be used instead of the simple equations whenever possible.

Analysis of trends in selected streamflow statistics for the Concho River Basin, Texas, 1916-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbie, Dana L.; Wehmeyer, Loren L.; May, Jayne E.

2012-01-01

Six U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations were selected for analysis. Streamflow-gaging station 08128000 South Concho River at Christoval has downward trends for annual maximum daily discharge and annual instantaneous peak discharge for the combined period 1931-95, 2002-9. Streamflow-gaging station 08128400 Middle Concho River above Tankersley has downward trends for annual maximum daily discharge and annual instantaneous peak discharge for the combined period 1962-95, 2002-9. Streamflow-gaging station 08128500 Middle Concho River near Tankersley has no significant trends in the streamflow statistics considered for the period 1931-60. Streamflow-gaging station 08134000 North Concho River near Carlsbad has downward trends for annual mean daily discharge, annual 7-day minimum daily discharge, annual maximum daily discharge, and annual instantaneous peak discharge for the period 1925-2009. Streamflow-gaging stations 08136000 Concho River at San Angelo and 08136500 Concho River at Paint Rock have downward trends for 1916-2009 for all streamflow statistics calculated, but streamflow-gaging station 08136000 Concho River at San Angelo has an upward trend for annual maximum daily discharge during 1964-2009. The downward trends detected during 1916-2009 for the Concho River at San Angelo are not unexpected because of three reservoirs impounding and profoundly regulating streamflow.

Spatiotemporal variability of inorganic nutrients during wastewater effluent dominated streamflow conditions in Indian Creek, Johnson County, Kansas, 2012–15

USGS Publications Warehouse

Foster, Guy M.; Graham, Jennifer L.; Williams, Thomas J.; King, Lindsey R.

2016-10-31

Nutrients, particularly nitrogen and phosphorus, are a leading cause of water-quality impairment in Kansas and the Nation. Indian Creek is one of the most urban drainage basins in Johnson County, Kansas, and environmental and biological conditions are affected by contaminants from point and other urban sources. The Johnson County Douglas L. Smith Middle Basin (hereinafter Middle Basin) wastewater treatment facility (WWTF) is the largest point-source discharge on Indian Creek. A second facility, the Tomahawk Creek WWTF, discharges into Indian Creek approximately 11.6 kilometers downstream from the Middle Basin WWTF. To better characterize the spatiotemporal variability of nutrients in Indian Creek, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kansas Department of Health and Environment and Johnson County Wastewater, collected high-resolution spatial and temporal (a large number of samples collected over the entire reach or at single locations over a long period of time) inorganic nutrient (nitrate plus nitrite and orthophosphorus) data using a combination of discrete samples and sensor-measured data during 2012 through 2015.Nutrient patterns observed in Indian Creek along the upstream-downstream gradient during wastewater effluent dominated streamflow conditions were largely affected by the WWTFs and by travel time of the parcels of water. Nitrate plus nitrite concentrations in the Middle Basin WWTF effluent and at downstream sites varied by as much as 6 milligrams per liter over a 24-hour period. The cyclical variability in the Middle Basin WWTF effluent generated a nitrate plus nitrite pulse that could be tracked for approximately 11.5 kilometers downstream in Indian Creek, until the effect was masked by the Tomahawk Creek WWTF effluent discharge. All longitudinal surveys showed the same general patterns along the upstream-downstream gradient, though streamflows, wastewater effluent contributions to streamflow, and nutrient concentrations spanned a wide range. Differences in orthophosphorus and nitrate plus nitrite patterns were clear along the upstream-downstream gradient in Indian Creek, and orthophosphorus concentrations were not as variable as nitrate plus nitrite concentrations. In general, nitrate plus nitrite concentrations decreased downstream from the Middle Basin WWTF to minima near the confluence with Tomahawk Creek, increased downstream from the Tomahawk Creek WWTF, and then varied little within the study reach. Orthophosphorus concentrations generally decreased downstream from the Middle Basin WWTF.Despite the marked variability in nitrate plus nitrite concentrations caused by the Middle Basin WWTF effluent discharges, decreases in nitrate plus nitrite concentrations were discernable along the study reach between the two WWTFs. Decreases in nitrate plus nitrite concentrations along study reach were less variable than the cyclical variability typically measured, reiterating the effect of the Middle Basin WWTF effluent discharges on the spatiotemporal variability of nitrate plus nitrite in Indian Creek. Although decreases and rates of change in nitrate plus nitrite concentration were similar between the upper and lower reaches of Indian Creek, relations with initial nitrate plus nitrite concentrations and seasonal patterns were different between the upper (from College to the Marty study sites) and lower reaches (from Marty to the Mission Farms study sites) and did not reflect patterns observed for the overall reach. Quantifying the decreases in nitrate plus nitrite concentration caused by dilution and other in-stream processes were beyond the scope of this study, and were limited by available data. The data that are available suggest that dilution and other in-stream processes play a role in decreasing nitrate plus nitrite concentrations downstream from the Middle Basin WWTF in Indian Creek.Analysis of the spatiotemporal variability of nutrients focused on below-normal and normal streamflow conditions, when streamflow and nutrient conditions in Indian Creek were largely controlled by WWTF effluent flows and nutrient removal processes. Spatial and temporal data indicate there are decreases in nutrient concentrations along the upstream-downstream gradient in Indian Creek, but quantifying decreases is complicated by the variability in nutrient concentrations caused by the WWTFs. During below-normal and normal streamflow conditions, Indian Creek nutrient concentrations downstream from the Middle Basin WWTF primarily reflect effluent concentrations in the hours or days before depending on relative distance downstream.

Water quality and quantity in the context of large-scale cellulosic biofuel production in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

VanLoocke, A.; Bernacchi, C. J.; Twine, T. E.; Kucharik, C. J.

2012-12-01

Numerous socio-economic and environmental pressures have driven the need to increase domestic renewable energy production in the Midwest. The primary attempt at addressing this need has been to use maize; however, the leaching of residual nitrate from maize fertilizer into runoff drives the formation of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic or "Dead" zone which can have significant environmental impacts on the marine ecosystems. As a result of the threat to benthic organisms and fisheries in this region, The Mississippi Basin/Gulf of Mexico Task Force has set in place goals to reduce the size of the hypoxic zone from the current size of ~ 20,000 km2 to < 5000 km2 by the year. It is predicted that annual dissolved inorganic nitrate (DIN) export would have to decrease by 30 to 55% to meet this goal. An alternative option to meet the renewable energy needs while reducing the environmental impacts associated with DIN export is to produce high-yielding, low fertilizer input perennial grasses such as switchgrass and miscanthus. Miscanthus and switchgrass have been shown to greatly reduce nitrate leaching at the plot scale, even during the establishment phase. This reduction in leaching is attributed to the perennial nature and the efficient recycling of nutrients via nutrient translocation. While these feedstocks are able to achieve higher productivity than maize grain with fewer inputs, they require more water, presenting the potential for environmental impacts on regional hydrologic cycle, including reductions in streamflow. The goal of this research is to determine the change in streamflow in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) and the export of nitrogen from fertilizer to the Gulf of Mexico. To address this goal, we adapted a vegetation model capable of simulating the biogeochemistry of current crops as well as miscanthus and switchgrass, the Integrated Biosphere Simulator - agricultural version (Agro-IBIS) and coupled it with a hydrology model capable of simulating streamflow and nitrogen export, the Terrestrial Hydrology Model with Biogeochemistry. Simulations were conducted at varying fertilizer application rates and fraction coverages of miscanthus and switchgrass across the MARB. Data analysis indicated that there were reductions in runoff and streamflow throughout the MARB, with the largest differences occurring in drier portions of the regions. However differences in streamflow were only statistically resolved when miscanthus production was above 25% coverage and switchgrass above 35%. Compared to streamflow, statistically significant reductions in nitrogen export occurred at lower percent coverage, with unfertilized miscanthus having significant reductions at 10% and switchgrass at 25% coverage respectively, however this effect was smaller at higher fertilizer application rates. These results indicate that, given targeted management strategies, there is potential for miscanthus and switchgrass to provide key ecosystem services by reducing the export of DIN, while avoiding hydrologic impacts of reduced streamflow.

Nutrients in Streams and Rivers Across the Nation -- 1992-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, David K.; Spahr, Norman E.

2006-01-01

Nutrient compounds of nitrogen and phosphorus were investigated in streams and rivers sampled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. Nutrient data were collected in 20 NAWQA study units during 1992-95, 16 study units during 1996-98, and 15 study units during 1999-2001. To facilitate comparisons among sampling sites with variable sampling frequency, daily loads were determined by using regression models that relate constituent transport to streamflow and time. Model results were used to compute mean annual loads, yields, and concentrations of ammonia, nitrate, total nitrogen, orthophosphate, and total phosphorus, which were compared among stream and river sampling sites. Variations in the occurrence and distribution of nutrients in streams and rivers on a broad national scale reflect differences in the sources of nutrient inputs to the upstream watersheds and in watershed characteristics that affect movement of those nutrients. Sites were classified by watershed size and by land use in the upstream watershed: agriculture, urban, and undeveloped (forest or rangeland). Selection of NAWQA urban sites was intended to avoid effects of major wastewater-treatment plants and other point sources, but in some locations this was not feasible. Nutrient concentrations and yields generally increased with anthropogenic development in the watershed. Median concentrations and yields for all constituents at sites downstream from undeveloped areas were less than at sites downstream from agricultural or urban areas. Concentrations of ammonia, orthophosphate, and total phosphorus at agricultural and urban sites were not significantly different; however, concentrations of nitrate and total nitrogen were higher at agricultural than at urban sites. Total nitrogen concentrations at agricultural sites were higher in areas of high nitrogen input or enhanced transport, such as irrigation or artificial drainage that can rapidly move water from cropland to streams (Midwest, Northern Plains, and western areas of the United States). Concentrations were lower in the Southeast, where more denitrification occurs during transport of nitrogen compounds in shallow ground water. At urban sites, high concentrations of ammonia and orthophosphate were more prevalent downstream from wastewater-treatment plants. At sites with large watersheds and high mean-annual streamflow ('large-watershed' sites), concentrations of most nutrients were significantly less than at sites downstream from agricultural or urban areas. Total nitrogen concentrations at large-watershed sites were higher in Midwest agricultural areas and lower in the Western United States, where agricultural and urban development is less extensive. Total phosphorus concentrations at large-watershed sites were higher in areas of greater potential erosion and low overall runoff such as the arid areas in the West. Although not as distinct as seasonal patterns of streamflow, geographic patterns of seasonally high and low concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus were identified in the data. Seasonal patterns in concentrations of total nitrogen generally mirror seasonal patterns in streamflow in the humid Eastern United States but are inverse to seasonal patterns in streamflow in the semiarid interior West. Total phosphorus concentrations typically have the opposite regional relation with streamflow; high concentrations coincide with high streamflows in the interior West. In the NAWQA Program, sites downstream from relatively undeveloped areas were selected to provide a baseline for comparison to sites with potential effects of urban development and agriculture. Concentrations of nitrate, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus at NAWQA undeveloped sites were found to be greater than values reported by other studies for conditions of essentially no development (background conditions). Concentrations at NAWQA undeveloped sites represent conditions

Development of regression equations to revise estimates of historical streamflows for the St. Croix River at Stillwater, Minnesota (water years 1910-2011), and Prescott, Wisconsin (water years 1910-2007)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ziegeweid, Jeffrey R.; Magdalene, Suzanne

2015-01-01

The new regression equations were used to calculate revised estimates of historical streamflows for Stillwater and Prescott starting in 1910 and ending when index-velocity streamgages were installed. Monthly, annual, 30-year, and period of record statistics were examined between previous and revised estimates of historical streamflows. The abilities of the new regression equations to estimate historical streamflows were evaluated by using percent differences to compare new estimates of historical daily streamflows to discrete streamflow measurements made at Stillwater and Prescott before the installation of index-velocity streamgages. Although less variability was observed between estimated and measured streamflows at Stillwater compared to Prescott, the percent difference data indicated that the new estimates closely approximated measured streamflows at both locations.

Simulation of streamflow and estimation of streamflow constituent loads in the San Antonio River watershed, Bexar County, Texas, 1997-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ockerman, Darwin J.; McNamara, Kenna C.

2003-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey developed watershed models (Hydrological Simulation Program—FORTRAN) to simulate streamflow and estimate streamflow constituent loads from five basins that compose the San Antonio River watershed in Bexar County, Texas. Rainfall and streamflow data collected during 1997–2001 were used to calibrate and test the model. The model was configured so that runoff from various land uses and discharges from other sources (such as wastewater recycling facilities) could be accounted for to indicate sources of streamflow. Simulated streamflow volumes were used with land-use-specific, water-quality data to compute streamflow loads of selected constituents from the various streamflow sources.Model simulations for 1997–2001 indicate that inflow from the upper Medina River (originating outside Bexar County) represents about 22 percent of total streamflow. Recycled wastewater discharges account for about 20 percent and base flow (ground-water inflow to streams) about 18 percent. Storm runoff from various land uses represents about 33 percent. Estimates of sources of streamflow constituent loads indicate recycled wastewater as the largest source of dissolved solids and nitrate plus nitrite nitrogen (about 38 and 66 percent, respectively, of the total loads) during 1997–2001. Stormwater runoff from urban land produced about 49 percent of the 1997–2001 total suspended solids load. Stormwater runoff from residential and commercial land (about 23 percent of the land area) produced about 70 percent of the total lead streamflow load during 1997–2001.

Disentangling the response of streamflow to forest management and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dymond, S.; Miniat, C.; Bladon, K. D.; Keppeler, E.; Caldwell, P. V.

2016-12-01

Paired watershed studies have showcased the relationships between forests, management, and streamflow. However, classical analyses of paired-watershed studies have done little to disentangle the effects of management from overarching climatic signals, potentially masking the interaction between management and climate. Such approaches may confound our understanding of how forest management impacts streamflow. Here we use a 50-year record of streamflow and climate data from the Caspar Creek Experimental Watersheds (CCEW), California, USA to separate the effects of forest management and climate on streamflow. CCEW has two treatment watersheds that have been harvested in the past 50 years. We used a nonlinear mixed model to combine the pre-treatment relationship between streamflow and climate and the post-treatment relationship via an interaction between climate and management into one equation. Our results show that precipitation and potential evapotranspiration alone can account for >95% of the variability in pre-treatment streamflow. Including management scenarios into the model explained most of the variability in streamflow (R2 > 0.98). While forest harvesting altered streamflow in both of our modeled watersheds, removing 66% of the vegetation via selection logging using a tractor yarding system over the entire watershed had a more substantial impact on streamflow than clearcutting small portions of a watershed using cable-yarding. These results suggest that forest harvesting may result in differing impacts on streamflow and highlights the need to incorporate climate into streamflow analyses of paired-watershed studies.

Streamflow and water-quality properties in the West Fork San Jacinto River Basin and regression models to estimate real-time suspended-sediment and total suspended-solids concentrations and loads in the West Fork San Jacinto River in the vicinity of Conroe, Texas, July 2008-August 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodkin, Lee J.; Oden, Jeannette H.

2010-01-01

To better understand the hydrology (streamflow and water quality) of the West Fork San Jacinto River Basin downstream from Lake Conroe near Conroe, Texas, including spatial and temporal variation in suspended-sediment (SS) and total suspended-solids (TSS) concentrations and loads, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Houston-Galveston Area Council and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, measured streamflow and collected continuous and discrete water-quality data during July 2008-August 2009 in the West Fork San Jacinto River Basin downstream from Lake Conroe. During July 2008-August 2009, discrete samples were collected and streamflow measurements were made over the range of flow conditions at two streamflow-gaging stations on the West Fork San Jacinto River: West Fork San Jacinto River below Lake Conroe near Conroe, Texas (station 08067650) and West Fork San Jacinto River near Conroe, Texas (station 08068000). In addition to samples collected at these two main monitoring sites, discrete sediment samples were also collected at five additional monitoring sites to help characterize water quality in the West Fork San Jacinto River Basin. Discrete samples were collected semimonthly, regardless of flow conditions, and during periods of high flow resulting from storms or releases from Lake Conroe. Because the period of data collection was relatively short (14 months) and low flow was prevalent during much of the study, relatively few samples collected were representative of the middle and upper ranges of historical daily mean streamflows. The largest streamflows tended to occur in response to large rainfall events and generally were associated with the largest SS and TSS concentrations. The maximum SS and TSS concentrations at station 08067650 (180 and 133 milligrams per liter [mg/L], respectively) were on April 19, 2009, when the instantaneous streamflow was the third largest associated with a discrete sample at the station. SS concentrations were 25 mg/L or less in 26 of 29 environmental samples and TSS concentrations were 25 mg/L or less in 25 of 28 environmental samples. Median SS and TSS concentrations were 7.0 and 7.6 mg/L, respectively. At station 08068000, the maximum SS concentration (1,270 mg/L) was on April 19, 2009, and the maximum TSS concentration (268 mg/L) was on September 18, 2008. SS concentrations were 25 mg/L or less in 16 of 27 of environmental samples and TSS concentrations were 25 mg/L or less in 18 of 26 environmental samples at the station. Median SS and TSS concentrations were 18.0 and 14.0 mg/L, respectively. The maximum SS and TSS concentrations for all five additional monitoring sites were 3,110 and 390 mg/L, respectively, and the minimum SS and TSS concentrations were 5.0 and 1.0 mg/L, respectively. Median concentrations ranged from 14.0 to 54.0 mg/L for SS and from 11.0 to 14.0 mg/L for TSS. Continuous measurements of streamflow and selected water-quality properties at stations 08067650 and 08068000 were evaluated as possible variables in regression equations developed to estimate SS and TSS concentrations and loads. Surrogate regression equations were developed to estimate SS and TSS loads by using real-time turbidity and streamflow data; turbidity and streamflow resulted in the best regression models for estimating near real-time SS and TSS concentrations for stations 08097650 and 08068000. Relatively large errors are associated with the regression-computed SS and TSS concentrations; the 90-percent prediction intervals for SS and TSS concentrations were (+/-)48.9 and (+/-)43.2 percent, respectively, for station 08067650 and (+/-)47.7 and (+/-)43.2 percent, respectively, for station 08068000. Regression-computed SS and TSS concentrations were corrected for bias before being used to compute SS and TSS loads. The total estimated SS and TSS loads during July 2008-August 2009 were about 3,540 and 1,900 tons, respectively, at station 08067650 and about 156,000 an

Simulating the effects of ground-water withdrawals on streamflow in a precipitation-runoff model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zarriello, Philip J.; Barlow, P.M.; Duda, P.B.

2004-01-01

Precipitation-runoff models are used to assess the effects of water use and management alternatives on streamflow. Often, ground-water withdrawals are a major water-use component that affect streamflow, but the ability of surface-water models to simulate ground-water withdrawals is limited. As part of a Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) precipitation-runoff model developed to analyze the effect of ground-water and surface-water withdrawals on streamflow in the Ipswich River in northeastern Massachusetts, an analytical technique (STRMDEPL) was developed for calculating the effects of pumped wells on streamflow. STRMDEPL is a FORTRAN program based on two analytical solutions that solve equations for ground-water flow to a well completed in a semi-infinite, homogeneous, and isotropic aquifer in direct hydraulic connection to a fully penetrating stream. One analytical method calculates unimpeded flow at the stream-aquifer boundary and the other method calculates the resistance to flow caused by semipervious streambed and streambank material. The principle of superposition is used with these analytical equations to calculate time-varying streamflow depletions due to daily pumping. The HSPF model can readily incorporate streamflow depletions caused by a well or surface-water withdrawal, or by multiple wells or surface-water withdrawals, or both, as a combined time-varying outflow demand from affected channel reaches. These demands are stored as a time series in the Watershed Data Management (WDM) file. This time-series data is read into the model as an external source used to specify flow from the first outflow gate in the reach where these withdrawals are located. Although the STRMDEPL program can be run independently of the HSPF model, an extension was developed to run this program within GenScn, a scenario generator and graphical user interface developed for use with the HSPF model. This extension requires that actual pumping rates for each well be stored in a unique WDM dataset identified by an attribute that associates each well with the model reach from which water is withdrawn. Other attributes identify the type and characteristics of the data. The interface allows users to easily add new pumping wells, delete exiting pumping wells, or change properties of the simulated aquifer or well. Development of this application enhanced the ability of the HSPF model to simulate complex water-use conditions in the Ipswich River Basin. The STRMDEPL program and the GenScn extension provide a valuable tool for water managers to evaluate the effects of pumped wells on streamflow and to test alternative water-use scenarios. Copyright ASCE 2004.

Assimilating uncertain, dynamic and intermittent streamflow observations in hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Alfonso, Leonardo; Chacon-Hurtado, Juan; Solomatine, Dimitri

2015-09-01

Catastrophic floods cause significant socio-economical losses. Non-structural measures, such as real-time flood forecasting, can potentially reduce flood risk. To this end, data assimilation methods have been used to improve flood forecasts by integrating static ground observations, and in some cases also remote sensing observations, within water models. Current hydrologic and hydraulic research works consider assimilation of observations coming from traditional, static sensors. At the same time, low-cost, mobile sensors and mobile communication devices are becoming also increasingly available. The main goal and innovation of this study is to demonstrate the usefulness of assimilating uncertain streamflow observations that are dynamic in space and intermittent in time in the context of two different semi-distributed hydrological model structures. The developed method is applied to the Brue basin, where the dynamic observations are imitated by the synthetic observations of discharge. The results of this study show how model structures and sensors locations affect in different ways the assimilation of streamflow observations. In addition, it proves how assimilation of such uncertain observations from dynamic sensors can provide model improvements similar to those of streamflow observations coming from a non-optimal network of static physical sensors. This can be a potential application of recent efforts to build citizen observatories of water, which can make the citizens an active part in information capturing, evaluation and communication, helping simultaneously to improvement of model-based flood forecasting.

Estimates of ground-water recharge, base flow, and stream reach gains and losses in the Willamette River basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Karl K.; Risley, John C.

2002-03-19

Precipitation-runoff models, base-flow-separation techniques, and stream gain-loss measurements were used to study recharge and ground-water surface-water interaction as part of a study of the ground-water resources of the Willamette River Basin. The study was a cooperative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey and the State of Oregon Water Resources Department. Precipitation-runoff models were used to estimate the water budget of 216 subbasins in the Willamette River Basin. The models were also used to compute long-term average recharge and base flow. Recharge and base-flow estimates will be used as input to a regional ground-water flow model, within the same study. Recharge and base-flow estimates were made using daily streamflow records. Recharge estimates were made at 16 streamflow-gaging-station locations and were compared to recharge estimates from the precipitation-runoff models. Base-flow separation methods were used to identify the base-flow component of streamflow at 52 currently operated and discontinued streamflow-gaging-station locations. Stream gain-loss measurements were made on the Middle Fork Willamette, Willamette, South Yamhill, Pudding, and South Santiam Rivers, and were used to identify and quantify gaining and losing stream reaches both spatially and temporally. These measurements provide further understanding of ground-water/surface-water interactions.

Streamflow data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holmes, Robert R.; Singh, Vijay P.

2016-01-01

The importance of streamflow data to the world’s economy, environmental health, and public safety continues to grow as the population increases. The collection of streamflow data is often an involved and complicated process. The quality of streamflow data hinges on such things as site selection, instrumentation selection, streamgage maintenance and quality assurance, proper discharge measurement techniques, and the development and continued verification of the streamflow rating. This chapter serves only as an overview of the streamflow data collection process as proper treatment of considerations, techniques, and quality assurance cannot be addressed adequately in the space limitations of this chapter. Readers with the need for the detailed information on the streamflow data collection process are referred to the many references noted in this chapter. 

Review and analysis of available streamflow and water-quality data for Park County, Colorado, 1962-98

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kimbrough, Robert A.

2001-01-01

Information on streamflow and surface-water and ground-water quality in Park County, Colorado, was compiled from several Federal, State, and local agencies. The data were reviewed and analyzed to provide a perspective of recent (1962-98) water-resource conditions and to help identify current and future water-quantity and water-quality concerns. Streamflow has been monitored at more than 40 sites in the county, and data for some sites date back to the early 1900's. Existing data indicate a need for increased archival of streamflow data for future use and analysis. In 1998, streamflow was continuously monitored at about 30 sites, but data were stored in a data base for only 10 sites. Water-quality data were compiled for 125 surface-water sites, 398 wells, and 30 springs. The amount of data varied considerably among sites; however, the available information provided a general indication of where water-quality constituent concentrations met or exceeded water-quality standards. Park County is primarily drained by streams in the South Platte River Basin and to a lesser extent by streams in the Arkansas River Basin. In the South Platte River Basin in Park County, more than one-half the annual streamflow occurs in May, June, and July in response to snowmelt in the mountainous headwaters. The annual snowpack is comparatively less in the Arkansas River Basin in Park County, and mean monthly streamflow is more consistent throughout the year. In some streams, the timing and magnitude of streamflow have been altered by main-stem reservoirs or by interbasin water transfers. Most values of surface-water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and pH were within recommended limits set by the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment. Specific conductance (an indirect measure of the dissolved-solids concentration) generally was lowest in streams of the upper South Platte River Basin and higher in the southern one-half of the county in the Arkansas River Basin and in the South Platte River downstream from Antero Reservoir. Historical nitrogen concentrations in surface water were small. Nitrite was not detected, most un-ionized ammonia concentrations were less than 0.02 milligram per liter, and all nitrate concentrations were less than 1.2 milligrams per liter. Nitrate concentrations were higher in urban and built-up areas than in rangeland and forest areas. Most median concentrations of total phosphorus at individual sites were less than 0.05 milligram per liter, and concentrations were not significantly different among urban and built-up, rangeland, and forest areas. An upward trend in total phosphorus concentration was determined for flow from the East Portal of the Harold D. Roberts Tunnel, but the slope of the trend line was small and the concentrations were equal or nearly equal to the detection limit of 0.01 milligram per liter. Using median phosphorus loads for two South Platte River sites, the annual phosphorus load transported out of Park County in the South Platte River was calculated to be about 10,000 pounds. Median iron and manganese concentrations for most areas of Park County were less than in-stream water-quality standards, even though several individual concentrations were one to two orders of magnitude larger than the standards. The largest concentrations of aluminum, cadmium, chromium, copper, iron, manganese, nickel, and zinc were from the upper North Fork South Platte River Basin or the Mosquito Creek Basin. All ground-water concentrations of chloride and most ground-water concentrations of sulfate were less than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) drinking-water standard of 250 milligrams per liter. Median dissolved-solids concentrations in ground water ranged from 160 milligrams per liter in the crystalline-rock aquifers to 257 milligrams per liter in the sedimentary-rock aquifers. Dissolved-solids concentrations greater than the USEPA drinking-water standard of 500 milligrams per liter were detected in abo

Thermal effects of dams in the Willamette River basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rounds, Stewart A.

2010-01-01

Methods were developed to assess the effects of dams on streamflow and water temperature in the Willamette River and its major tributaries. These methods were used to estimate the flows and temperatures that would occur at 14 dam sites in the absence of upstream dams, and river models were applied to simulate downstream flows and temperatures under a no-dams scenario. The dams selected for this study include 13 dams built and operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) as part of the Willamette Project, and 1 dam on the Clackamas River owned and operated by Portland General Electric (PGE). Streamflows in the absence of upstream dams for 2001-02 were estimated for USACE sites on the basis of measured releases, changes in reservoir storage, a correction for evaporative losses, and an accounting of flow effects from upstream dams. For the PGE dam, no-project streamflows were derived from a previous modeling effort that was part of a dam-relicensing process. Without-dam streamflows were characterized by higher peak flows in winter and spring and much lower flows in late summer, as compared to with-dam measured flows. Without-dam water temperatures were estimated from measured temperatures upstream of the reservoirs (the USACE sites) or derived from no-project model results (the PGE site). When using upstream data to estimate without-dam temperatures at dam sites, a typical downstream warming rate based on historical data and downstream river models was applied over the distance from the measurement point to the dam site, but only for conditions when the temperature data indicated that warming might be expected. Regressions with measured temperatures from nearby or similar sites were used to extend the without-dam temperature estimates to the entire 2001-02 time period. Without-dam temperature estimates were characterized by a more natural seasonal pattern, with a maximum in July or August, in contrast to the measured patterns at many of the tall dam sites where the annual maximum temperature typically occurred in September or October. Without-dam temperatures also tended to have more daily variation than with-dam temperatures. Examination of the without-dam temperature estimates indicated that dam sites could be grouped according to the amount of streamflow derived from high-elevation, spring-fed, and snowmelt-driven areas high in the Cascade Mountains (Cougar, Big Cliff/Detroit, River Mill, and Hills Creek Dams: Group A), as opposed to flow primarily derived from lower-elevation rainfall-driven drainages (Group B). Annual maximum temperatures for Group A ranged from 15 to 20 degree(s)C, expressed as the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADM), whereas annual maximum 7dADM temperatures for Group B ranged from 21 to 25 degrees C. Because summertime stream temperature is at least somewhat dependent on the upstream water source, it was important when estimating without-dam temperatures to use correlations to sites with similar upstream characteristics. For that reason, it also is important to maintain long-term, year-round temperature measurement stations at representative sites in each of the Willamette River basin's physiographic regions. Streamflow and temperature estimates downstream of the major dam sites and throughout the Willamette River were generated using existing CE-QUAL-W2 flow and temperature models. These models, originally developed for the Willamette River water-temperature Total Maximum Daily Load process, required only a few modifications to allow them to run under the greatly reduced without-dam flow conditions. Model scenarios both with and without upstream dams were run. Results showed that Willamette River streamflow without upstream dams was reduced to levels much closer to historical pre-dam conditions, with annual minimum streamflows approximately one-half or less of dam-augmented levels. Thermal effects of the dams varied according to the time of year, from cooling in mid-summer to warm

Streamflow data: Chapter 13

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiche, Gregg J.; Holmes, Robert R.

2016-01-01

Streamflow data are vital for a variety of water-resources issues, from flood warning to water supply planning. The collection of streamflow data is usually an involved and complicated process. This chapter serves as an overview of the streamflow data collection process. Readers with the need for the detailed information on the streamflow data collection process are referred to the many references noted in this chapter.

Ground-water recharge from small intermittent streams in the western Mojave Desert, California: Chapter G in Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States (Professional Paper 1703)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Izbicki, John A.; Johnson, Russell U.; Kulongoski, Justin T.; Predmore, Steven; Stonestrom, David A.; Constantz, Jim; Ferré, Ty P.A.; Leake, Stanley A.

2007-01-01

Population growth has impacted ground-water resources in the western Mojave Desert, where declining water levels suggest that recharge rates have not kept pace with withdrawals. Recharge from the Mojave River, the largest hydrographic feature in the study area, is relatively well characterized. In contrast, recharge from numerous smaller streams that convey runoff from the bounding mountains is poorly characterized. The current study examined four representative streams to assess recharge from these intermittent sources. Hydraulic, thermal, geomorphic, chemical, and isotopic data were used to study recharge processes, from streamflow generation and infiltration to percolation through the unsaturated zone. Ground-water movement away from recharge areas was also assessed.Infiltration in amounts sufficient to have a measurable effect on subsurface temperature profiles did not occur in every year in instrumented study reaches. In addition to streamflow availability, results showed the importance of sediment texture in controlling infiltration and eventual recharge. Infiltration amounts of about 0.7 meters per year were an approximate threshold for the occurrence of ground-water recharge. Estimated travel times through the thick unsaturated zones underlying channels reached several hundred years. Recharging fluxes were influenced by stratigraphic complexity and depositional dynamics. Because of channel meandering, not all water that penetrates beneath the root zone can be assumed to become recharge on active alluvial fans.Away from study washes, elevated chloride concentrations and highly negative water potentials beneath the root zone indicated negligible recharge from direct infiltration of precipitation under current climatic conditions. In upstream portions of washes, generally low subsurface chloride concentrations and near-zero water potentials indicated downward movement of water toward the water table, driven primarily by gravity. Recharging conditions did not extend to the distal ends of all washes. Where urbanization had concentrated spatially distributed runoff into a small number of fixed channels, enhanced infiltration induced recharging conditions, mobilizing accumulated chloride.Estimated amounts of ground-water recharge from the studied reaches were small. Extrapolating on the basis of drainage areas, the estimated aggregate recharge from small intermittent streams is minor compared to recharge from the Mojave River. Recharge is largely controlled by streamflow availability, which primarily reflects precipitation patterns. Precipitation in the Mojave Desert is strongly controlled by topography. Cool moist air masses from the Pacific Ocean are mostly blocked from entering the desert by the high mountains bordering its southern edge. Storms do, however, readily enter the region through Cajon Pass. These storms generate flow in the Mojave River that often reaches Afton Canyon, more than 150 kilometers downstream. The isotopic composition of ground water reflects the localization of recharge beneath the Mojave River. Similar processes occur near San Gorgonio Pass, 75 kilometers southeast from Cajon Pass along the bounding San Andreas Fault.

Floods in Central Texas, September 7-14, 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winters, Karl E.

2012-01-01

Severe flooding occurred near the Austin metropolitan area in central Texas September 7–14, 2010, because of heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Hermine. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Brushy Creek Water Control and Improvement District, determined rainfall amounts and annual exceedance probabilities for rainfall resulting in flooding in Bell, Williamson, and Travis counties in central Texas during September 2010. We documented peak streamflows and the annual exceedance probabilities for peak streamflows recorded at several streamflow-gaging stations in the study area. The 24-hour rainfall total exceeded 12 inches at some locations, with one report of 14.57 inches at Lake Georgetown. Rainfall probabilities were estimated using previously published depth-duration frequency maps for Texas. At 4 sites in Williamson County, the 24-hour rainfall had an annual exceedance probability of 0.002. Streamflow measurement data and flood-peak data from U.S. Geological Survey surface-water monitoring stations (streamflow and reservoir gaging stations) are presented, along with a comparison of September 2010 flood peaks to previous known maximums in the periods of record. Annual exceedance probabilities for peak streamflow were computed for 20 streamflow-gaging stations based on an analysis of streamflow-gaging station records. The annual exceedance probability was 0.03 for the September 2010 peak streamflow at the Geological Survey's streamflow-gaging stations 08104700 North Fork San Gabriel River near Georgetown, Texas, and 08154700 Bull Creek at Loop 360 near Austin, Texas. The annual exceedance probability was 0.02 for the peak streamflow for Geological Survey's streamflow-gaging station 08104500 Little River near Little River, Texas. The lack of similarity in the annual exceedance probabilities computed for precipitation and streamflow might be attributed to the small areal extent of the heaviest rainfall over these and the other gaged watersheds.

Estimation of streamflow gains and losses in the lower San Antonio River watershed, south-central Texas, 2006-10

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lizarraga, Joy S.; Wehmeyer, Loren L.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the San Antonio River Authority, the Evergreen Underground Water Conservation District, and the Goliad County Groundwater Conservation District, investigated streamflow gains and losses during 2006-10 in the lower San Antonio River watershed in south-central Texas. Streamflow gains and losses were estimated using 2006-10 continuous streamflow records from 11 continuous streamflow-gaging stations, and discrete streamflow measurements made at as many as 20 locations on the San Antonio River and selected tributaries during four synoptic surveys during 2006-7. From the continuous streamflow records, the greatest streamflow gain on the lower San Antonio River occurred in the reach from Falls City, Tex., to Goliad, Tex. The greatest streamflow gain on Cibolo Creek during 2006-10 occurred in the reach from near Saint Hedwig, Tex., to Sutherland Springs, Tex. The San Antonio River between Floresville, Tex., and Falls City was the only reach that had an estimated streamflow loss during 2006-10. During all four synoptic streamflow measurement surveys, the only substantially flowing tributary reach to the main stem of the lower San Antonio River was Cibolo Creek. Along the main stem of the lower San Antonio River, verifiable gains larger than the potential measurement error were estimated in two of the four synoptic streamflow measurement surveys. These gaining reaches occurred in the two most downstream reaches of the San Antonio River between Goliad and Farm Road (FM) 2506 near Fannin, Tex., and between FM 2506 near Fannin to near McFaddin. There were verifiable gains in streamflow in Cibolo Creek, between La Vernia, Tex., and the town of Sutherland Springs during all four surveys, estimated at between 4.8 and 14 ft3/s.

August median streamflow on ungaged streams in Eastern Coastal Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lombard, Pamela J.

2004-01-01

Methods for estimating August median streamflow were developed for ungaged, unregulated streams in eastern coastal Maine. The methods apply to streams with drainage areas ranging in size from 0.04 to 73.2 square miles and fraction of basin underlain by a sand and gravel aquifer ranging from 0 to 71 percent. The equations were developed with data from three long-term (greater than or equal to 10 years of record) continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations, 23 partial-record streamflow- gaging stations, and 5 short-term (less than 10 years of record) continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations. A mathematical technique for estimating a standard low-flow statistic, August median streamflow, at partial-record streamflow-gaging stations and short-term continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations was applied by relating base-flow measurements at these stations to concurrent daily streamflows at nearby long-term continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations (index stations). Generalized least-squares regression analysis (GLS) was used to relate estimates of August median streamflow at streamflow-gaging stations to basin characteristics at these same stations to develop equations that can be applied to estimate August median streamflow on ungaged streams. GLS accounts for different periods of record at the gaging stations and the cross correlation of concurrent streamflows among gaging stations. Thirty-one stations were used for the final regression equations. Two basin characteristics?drainage area and fraction of basin underlain by a sand and gravel aquifer?are used in the calculated regression equation to estimate August median streamflow for ungaged streams. The equation has an average standard error of prediction from -27 to 38 percent. A one-variable equation uses only drainage area to estimate August median streamflow when less accuracy is acceptable. This equation has an average standard error of prediction from -30 to 43 percent. Model error is larger than sampling error for both equations, indicating that additional or improved estimates of basin characteristics could be important to improved estimates of low-flow statistics. Weighted estimates of August median streamflow at partial- record or continuous-record gaging stations range from 0.003 to 31.0 cubic feet per second or from 0.1 to 0.6 cubic feet per second per square mile. Estimates of August median streamflow on ungaged streams in eastern coastal Maine, within the range of acceptable explanatory variables, range from 0.003 to 45 cubic feet per second or 0.1 to 0.6 cubic feet per second per square mile. Estimates of August median streamflow per square mile of drainage area generally increase as drainage area and fraction of basin underlain by a sand and gravel aquifer increase.

Seasonal prediction for hydro-meteorological variables in the Korean Peninsula: Links with atmospheric teleconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, S.

2016-12-01

This study analyzes nonlinear behavior links with atmospheric teleconnections between hydrologic variables and climate indices using statistical models over the Korean Peninsula (KP). The ocean-related major climate factors such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode in the Tropical Ocean (TO) region were used to analyze the atmospheric teleconnections by principal component analysis (PCA) and a singular spectrum analysis (SSA). The nonlinear lag time correlations between climate indices and hydrological variables are calculated by the Mutual Information (MI) techniques. Results show that teleconnection based nonlinear correlation coefficients (CCs) were higher than linear CCs, ENSO shows a few months of lag time correlation with IOD, which has a direct influence on rainfall and streamflow anomalies in the KP. The precipitation and streamflow in KP shows a significant increasing and decreasing tendency during warm pool (WP) and cold tongue (CT) El Niño decaying years, respectively, while the La Niña year shows slightly above normal conditions. IOD events show significantly decreasing and increasing long-term normal conditions during positive and negative years, respectively. A better understanding of the relationship between climate indices and streamflow can help policy makers prepare for possible options in river discharge pattern changes. Furthermore, these results provide useful information for water managers and end-users to support long-range water resources prediction and water-related management plan.

Impacts of climate change under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on the streamflow in the Dinder River and ecosystem habitats in Dinder National Park, Sudan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basheer, A. K.; Lu, H.; Omer, A.; Ali, A. B.; Abdelgader, A. M. S.

2015-10-01

The fate of seasonal rivers ecosystem habitats under climate change essentially depends on the changes in annual recharge, which related to alterations in precipitation and evaporation over the river basin. Therefore the change in climate conditions is expected to significantly affect hydrological and ecological components, particularly in fragmented ecosystems. This study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on the streamflow in Dinder River Basin (DRB), and infer its relative possible effects on the Dinder National Park (DNP) ecosystem habitats in the Sudan. Two global circulation models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and two statistical downscaling approaches combined with hydrological model (SWAT) were used to project the climate change conditions over the study periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The results indicated that the climate over the DRB will become warmer and wetter under the most scenarios. The projected precipitation variability mainly depends on the selected GCM and downscaling approach. Moreover, the projected streamflow was more sensitive to rainfall and temperature variation, and will likely increase in this century. In contrast to drought periods during (1960s, 1970s and 1980s), the predicted climate change is likely to affect ecosystems in DNP positively and promote the ecological restoration of the flora and fauna habitats'.

The importance of parameterization when simulating the hydrologic response of vegetative land-cover change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, Jeremy; Stengel, Victoria; Rendon, Samuel; Banta, John

2017-08-01

Computer models of hydrologic systems are frequently used to investigate the hydrologic response of land-cover change. If the modeling results are used to inform resource-management decisions, then providing robust estimates of uncertainty in the simulated response is an important consideration. Here we examine the importance of parameterization, a necessarily subjective process, on uncertainty estimates of the simulated hydrologic response of land-cover change. Specifically, we applied the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model to a 1.4 km2 watershed in southern Texas to investigate the simulated hydrologic response of brush management (the mechanical removal of woody plants), a discrete land-cover change. The watershed was instrumented before and after brush-management activities were undertaken, and estimates of precipitation, streamflow, and evapotranspiration (ET) are available; these data were used to condition and verify the model. The role of parameterization in brush-management simulation was evaluated by constructing two models, one with 12 adjustable parameters (reduced parameterization) and one with 1305 adjustable parameters (full parameterization). Both models were subjected to global sensitivity analysis as well as Monte Carlo and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) conditioning to identify important model inputs and to estimate uncertainty in several quantities of interest related to brush management. Many realizations from both parameterizations were identified as behavioral in that they reproduce daily mean streamflow acceptably well according to Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, percent bias, and coefficient of determination. However, the total volumetric ET difference resulting from simulated brush management remains highly uncertain after conditioning to daily mean streamflow, indicating that streamflow data alone are not sufficient to inform the model inputs that influence the simulated outcomes of brush management the most. Additionally, the reduced-parameterization model grossly underestimates uncertainty in the total volumetric ET difference compared to the full-parameterization model; total volumetric ET difference is a primary metric for evaluating the outcomes of brush management. The failure of the reduced-parameterization model to provide robust uncertainty estimates demonstrates the importance of parameterization when attempting to quantify uncertainty in land-cover change simulations.

The importance of parameterization when simulating the hydrologic response of vegetative land-cover change

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Jeremy; Stengel, Victoria G.; Rendon, Samuel H.; Banta, John

2017-01-01

Computer models of hydrologic systems are frequently used to investigate the hydrologic response of land-cover change. If the modeling results are used to inform resource-management decisions, then providing robust estimates of uncertainty in the simulated response is an important consideration. Here we examine the importance of parameterization, a necessarily subjective process, on uncertainty estimates of the simulated hydrologic response of land-cover change. Specifically, we applied the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model to a 1.4 km2 watershed in southern Texas to investigate the simulated hydrologic response of brush management (the mechanical removal of woody plants), a discrete land-cover change. The watershed was instrumented before and after brush-management activities were undertaken, and estimates of precipitation, streamflow, and evapotranspiration (ET) are available; these data were used to condition and verify the model. The role of parameterization in brush-management simulation was evaluated by constructing two models, one with 12 adjustable parameters (reduced parameterization) and one with 1305 adjustable parameters (full parameterization). Both models were subjected to global sensitivity analysis as well as Monte Carlo and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) conditioning to identify important model inputs and to estimate uncertainty in several quantities of interest related to brush management. Many realizations from both parameterizations were identified as behavioral in that they reproduce daily mean streamflow acceptably well according to Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, percent bias, and coefficient of determination. However, the total volumetric ET difference resulting from simulated brush management remains highly uncertain after conditioning to daily mean streamflow, indicating that streamflow data alone are not sufficient to inform the model inputs that influence the simulated outcomes of brush management the most. Additionally, the reduced-parameterization model grossly underestimates uncertainty in the total volumetric ET difference compared to the full-parameterization model; total volumetric ET difference is a primary metric for evaluating the outcomes of brush management. The failure of the reduced-parameterization model to provide robust uncertainty estimates demonstrates the importance of parameterization when attempting to quantify uncertainty in land-cover change simulations.

Effects of groundwater pumping in the lower Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, L. Elliott

2012-01-01

USGS developed a groundwater-flow model of the Upper Floridan aquifer in lower Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River basin in southwest Georgia and adjacent parts of Alabama and Florida to determine the effect of agricultural groundwater pumping on aquifer/stream flow within the basin. Aquifer/stream flow is the sum of groundwater outflow to and inflow from streams, and is an important consideration for water managers in the development of water-allocation and operating plans. Specifically, the model was used to evaluate how agricultural pumping relates to 7Q10 low streamflow, a statistical low flow indicative of drought conditions that would occur during seven consecutive days, on average, once every 10 years. Argus ONETM, a software package that combines a geographic information system (GIS) and numerical modeling in an Open Numerical Environment, facilitated the design of a detailed finite-element mesh to represent the complex geometry of the stream system in the lower basin as a groundwater-model boundary. To determine the effects on aquifer/stream flow of pumping at different locations within the model area, a pumping rate equivalent to a typical center-pivot irrigation system (50,000 ft3/d) was applied individually at each of the 18,951 model nodes in repeated steady-state simulations that were compared to a base case representing drought conditions during October 1999. Effects of nodal pumping on aquifer/stream flow and other boundary flows, as compared with the base-case simulation, were computed and stored in a response matrix. Queries to the response matrix were designed to determine the sensitivity of targeted stream reaches to agricultural pumping. Argus ONE enabled creation of contour plots of query results to illustrate the spatial variation across the model area of simulated aquifer/streamflow reductions, expressed as a percentage of the long-term 7Q10 low streamflow at key USGS gaging stations in the basin. These results would enable water managers to assess the relative impact of agricultural pumping and drought conditions on streamflow throughout the basin, and to develop mitigation strategies to conserve water resources and preserve aquatic habitat.

Estimating Watershed-Averaged Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Fluxes using Streamflow Measurements in a Semi-Arid, High Altitude Montane Catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrington, C.; Gonzalez-Pinzon, R.

2014-12-01

Streamflow through the Middle Rio Grande Valley is largely driven by snowmelt pulses and monsoonal precipitation events originating in the mountain highlands of New Mexico (NM) and Colorado. Water managers rely on results from storage/runoff models to distribute this resource statewide and to allocate compact deliveries to Texas under the Rio Grande Compact agreement. Prevalent drought conditions and the added uncertainty of climate change effects in the American southwest have led to a greater call for accuracy in storage model parameter inputs. While precipitation and evapotranspiration measurements are subject to scaling and representativeness errors, streamflow readings remain relatively dependable and allow watershed-average water budget estimates. Our study seeks to show that by "Doing Hydrology Backwards" we can effectively estimate watershed-average precipitation and evapotranspiration fluxes in semi-arid landscapes of NM using fluctuations in streamflow data alone. We tested this method in the Valles Caldera National Preserve (VCNP) in the Jemez Mountains of central NM. This method will be further verified by using existing weather stations and eddy-covariance towers within the VCNP to obtain measured values to compare against our model results. This study contributes to further validate this technique as being successful in humid and semi-arid catchments as the method has already been verified as effective in the former setting.

Applying a coupled hydrometeorological simulation system to flash flood forecasting over the Korean Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, Young; Lim, Yoon-Jin; Ji, Hee-Sook; Park, Hyun-Hee; Chang, Eun-Chul; Kim, Baek-Jo

2017-11-01

In flash flood forecasting, it is necessary to consider not only traditional meteorological variables such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture, but also hydrological components such as streamflow. To address this challenge, the application of high resolution coupled atmospheric-hydrological models is emerging as a promising alternative. This study demonstrates the feasibility of linking a coupled atmospheric-hydrological model (WRF/WRFHydro) with 150-m horizontal grid spacing for flash flood forecasting in Korea. The study area is the Namgang Dam basin in Southern Korea, a mountainous area located downstream of Jiri Mountain (1915 m in height). Under flash flood conditions, the simulated precipitation over the entire basin is comparable to the domain-averaged precipitation, but discharge data from WRF-Hydro shows some differences in the total available water and the temporal distribution of streamflow (given by the timing of the streamflow peak following precipitation), compared to observations. On the basis of sensitivity tests, the parameters controlling the infiltration of excess precipitation and channel roughness depending on stream order are refined and their influence on temporal distribution of streamflow is addressed with intent to apply WRF-Hydro to flash flood forecasting in the Namgang Dam basin. The simulation results from the WRF-Hydro model with optimized parameters demonstrate the potential utility of a coupled atmospheric-hydrological model for forecasting heavy rain-induced flash flooding over the Korean Peninsula.

Characterizing changes in streamflow and sediment supply in the Sacramento River Basin, California, using hydrological simulation program—FORTRAN (HSPF)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stern, Michelle A.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Minear, Justin T.; Flint, Alan L.; Wright, Scott A.

2016-01-01

A daily watershed model of the Sacramento River Basin of northern California was developed to simulate streamflow and suspended sediment transport to the San Francisco Bay-Delta. To compensate for sparse data, a unique combination of model inputs was developed, including meteorological variables, potential evapotranspiration, and parameters defining hydraulic geometry. A slight decreasing trend of sediment loads and concentrations was statistically significant in the lowest 50% of flows, supporting the observed historical sediment decline. Historical changes in climate, including seasonality and decline of snowpack, contribute to changes in streamflow, and are a significant component describing the mechanisms responsible for the decline in sediment. Several wet and dry hypothetical climate change scenarios with temperature changes of 1.5 °C and 4.5 °C were applied to the base historical conditions to assess the model sensitivity of streamflow and sediment to changes in climate. Of the scenarios evaluated, sediment discharge for the Sacramento River Basin increased the most with increased storm magnitude and frequency and decreased the most with increases in air temperature, regardless of changes in precipitation. The model will be used to develop projections of potential hydrologic and sediment trends to the Bay-Delta in response to potential future climate scenarios, which will help assess the hydrological and ecological health of the Bay-Delta into the next century.

How does forest disturbance and succession affect summer streamflow recession?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brena, A.; Stahl, K.; Weiler, M.

2011-12-01

Streamflow recession is a main signature of catchment behavior during dry conditions. The storage-discharge relationship of every catchment reflects the aquifer properties and land surface processes including evapotranspiration rates. Commonly, the storage-discharge relationship in watersheds is analyzed through the recession limb of the hydrograph, which generally follows a nonlinear pattern. It is, however, unknown how forest disturbance and succession may modify the degree of nonlinearity of baseflow recession and the magnitude of baseflow. The presented study analyzes and characterizes streamflow recession during summer before and after forest disturbance using data from six experimental paired-watersheds with controlled forest disturbances across different climatic regions and ecozones of the USA. Characteristic non-linear recession parameters were fitted by a Monte Carlo resampling method. No systematic relationship was found between annual precipitation, drainage area, mean elevation, and recession characteristics. However, higher storage rates and low flows across the sites were detected following forest disturbance. Exceptions are the snow-dominated watersheds and changes appear to be stronger in watersheds with deciduous forests. The results are however dependent on the method of recession limb selection, including start level and time. Further research is needed over a wide range of forest sites and according to the type of disturbance (e.g. fire, disease), which may ultimately define the dynamics of forest succession and therefore the streamflow recession behavior.

Analytical flow duration curves for summer streamflow in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Ana Clara; Portela, Maria Manuela; Rinaldo, Andrea; Schaefli, Bettina

2018-04-01

This paper proposes a systematic assessment of the performance of an analytical modeling framework for streamflow probability distributions for a set of 25 Swiss catchments. These catchments show a wide range of hydroclimatic regimes, including namely snow-influenced streamflows. The model parameters are calculated from a spatially averaged gridded daily precipitation data set and from observed daily discharge time series, both in a forward estimation mode (direct parameter calculation from observed data) and in an inverse estimation mode (maximum likelihood estimation). The performance of the linear and the nonlinear model versions is assessed in terms of reproducing observed flow duration curves and their natural variability. Overall, the nonlinear model version outperforms the linear model for all regimes, but the linear model shows a notable performance increase with catchment elevation. More importantly, the obtained results demonstrate that the analytical model performs well for summer discharge for all analyzed streamflow regimes, ranging from rainfall-driven regimes with summer low flow to snow and glacier regimes with summer high flow. These results suggest that the model's encoding of discharge-generating events based on stochastic soil moisture dynamics is more flexible than previously thought. As shown in this paper, the presence of snowmelt or ice melt is accommodated by a relative increase in the discharge-generating frequency, a key parameter of the model. Explicit quantification of this frequency increase as a function of mean catchment meteorological conditions is left for future research.

Water's Way at Sleepers River watershed – revisiting flow generation in a post-glacial landscape, Vermont USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shanley, James B.; Sebestyen, Stephen D.; McDonnell, Jeffrey J.; McGlynn, Brian L.; Dunne, Thomas

2015-01-01

The Sleepers River Research Watershed (SRRW) in Vermont, USA, has been the site of active hydrologic research since 1959 and was the setting where Dunne and Black demonstrated the importance and controls of saturation-excess overland flow (SOF) on streamflow generation. Here, we review the early studies from the SRRW and show how they guided our conceptual approach to hydrologic research at the SRRW during the most recent 25 years. In so doing, we chronicle a shift in the field from early studies that relied exclusively on hydrometric measurements to today's studies that include chemical and isotopic approaches to further elucidate streamflow generation mechanisms. Highlights of this evolution in hydrologic understanding include the following: (i) confirmation of the importance of SOF to streamflow generation, and at larger scales than first imagined; (ii) stored catchment water dominates stream response, except under unusual conditions such as deep frozen ground; (iii) hydrometric, chemical and isotopic approaches to hydrograph separation yield consistent and complementary results; (iv) nitrate and sulfate isotopic compositions specific to atmospheric inputs constrain new water contributions to streamflow; and (v) convergent areas, or ‘hillslope hollows’, contribute disproportionately to event hydrographs. We conclude by summarizing some remaining challenges that lead us to a vision for the future of research at the SRRW to address fundamental questions in the catchment sciences.

Modeling Forest Management Strategies for Hydrological Climate Change Adaptation in the upper Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Z.; Sun, N.; Wigmosta, M. S.; Hessburg, P. F., Sr.; Coleman, A. M.; Salter, B.

2017-12-01

Management of forest lands in the Upper Columbia River basin is necessary to ensure the sustainability of natural ecosystems and enhance protection and recovery of fish and wildlife populations. By 2030, summertime surface water demand is expected to significantly exceed supply in most years in many Upper Columbia tributaries; in some years, a portion of these tributaries will exceed supply even outside the summer months. Forest restoration (i.e., timber harvest, prescribed burning, thinning) reduces canopy cover and, subsequently, has been shown in many cases to increase snow accumulation and total runoff volume. We use the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to predict hydrologic properties and changes associated with realistic forest restoration scenarios prescribed in high spatial detail (90 m) within snow-dominated watersheds of the upper Columbia under current and future climate conditions. We consider changes in hydrological processes related to snowpack, stream discharge, and water temperature. Model results suggest forest restoration will impact annual water yield under both current and future climate conditions and the impact of forest restoration on the timing of snowmelt and streamflow varies from year to year and is highly dependent on local meteorological conditions and particular forest restoration scenarios. Corresponding changes in water temperature will also be discussed.

Characteristics of the April 2007 Flood at 10 Streamflow-Gaging Stations in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zarriello, Phillip J.; Carlson, Carl S.

2009-01-01

A large 'nor'easter' storm on April 15-18, 2007, brought heavy rains to the southern New England region that, coupled with normal seasonal high flows and associated wet soil-moisture conditions, caused extensive flooding in many parts of Massachusetts and neighboring states. To characterize the magnitude of the April 2007 flood, a peak-flow frequency analysis was undertaken at 10 selected streamflow-gaging stations in Massachusetts to determine the magnitude of flood flows at 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year return intervals. The magnitude of flood flows at various return intervals were determined from the logarithms of the annual peaks fit to a Pearson Type III probability distribution. Analysis included augmenting the station record with longer-term records from one or more nearby stations to provide a common period of comparison that includes notable floods in 1936, 1938, and 1955. The April 2007 peak flow was among the highest recorded or estimated since 1936, often ranking between the 3d and 5th highest peak for that period. In general, the peak-flow frequency analysis indicates the April 2007 peak flow has an estimated return interval between 25 and 50 years; at stations in the northeastern and central areas of the state, the storm was less severe resulting in flows with return intervals of about 5 and 10 years, respectively. At Merrimack River at Lowell, the April 2007 peak flow approached a 100-year return interval that was computed from post-flood control records and the 1936 and 1938 peak flows adjusted for flood control. In general, the magnitude of flood flow for a given return interval computed from the streamflow-gaging station period-of-record was greater than those used to calculate flood profiles in various community flood-insurance studies. In addition, the magnitude of the updated flood flow and current (2008) stage-discharge relation at a given streamflow-gaging station often produced a flood stage that was considerably different than the flood stage indicated in the flood-insurance study flood profile at that station. Equations for estimating the flow magnitudes for 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year floods were developed from the relation of the magnitude of flood flows to drainage area calculated from the six streamflow-gaging stations with the longest unaltered record. These equations produced a more conservative estimate of flood flows (higher discharges) than the existing regional equations for estimating flood flows at ungaged rivers in Massachusetts. Large differences in the magnitude of flood flows for various return intervals determined in this study compared to results from existing regional equations and flood insurance studies indicate a need for updating regional analyses and equations for estimating the expected magnitude of flood flows in Massachusetts.

Hydraulic Geometry Characteristics of Continuous-Record Streamflow-Gaging Stations on Four Urban Watersheds Along the Main Stem of Gwynns Falls, Baltimore County and Baltimore City, Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doheny, Edward J.; Fisher, Gary T.

2007-01-01

Four continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations are currently being operated by the U.S. Geological Survey on the main stem of Gwynns Falls in western Baltimore County and Baltimore City, Maryland. The four streamflow-gaging stations drain urban or suburban watersheds with significantly different drainage areas. In addition to providing continuous- record discharge data at these four locations, operation of these stations also provides a long-term record of channel geometry variables such as cross-sectional area, channel width, mean channel depth, and mean velocity that are obtained from physical measurement of the discharge at a variety of flow conditions. Hydraulic geometry analyses were performed using discharge-measurement data from four continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations on the main stem of Gwynns Falls. Simple linear regression was used to develop relations that (1) quantify changes in cross-sectional area, channel width, mean channel depth, and mean velocity with changes in discharge at each station, and (2) quantify changes in these variables in the Gwynns Falls watershed with changes in drainage area and annual mean discharge. Results of the hydraulic geometry analyses indicated that mean velocity is more responsive to changes in discharge than channel width and mean channel depth for all four streamflow-gaging stations on the main stem of Gwynns Falls. For the two largest and most developed watersheds, on Gwynns Falls at Villa Nova, and Gwynns Falls at Washington Boulevard at Baltimore, the slope of the regression lines, or hydraulic exponents, indicated that mean velocity was more responsive to changes in discharge than any of the other hydraulic variables that were analyzed. This was true even when considering changes in cross-sectional area with discharge, which incorporates the combined effects of channel width and mean channel depth. A comparison of hydraulic exponents for Gwynns Falls to average values from previous work indicated that the velocity exponents for all four stations on the Gwynns Falls are larger than the average value of 0.34. For stations 01589300 and 01589352, the exponents for mean velocity are about twice as large as the average value. Analyses of cross-sectional area, channel width, mean channel depth, and mean velocity in conjunction with changes in drainage area and annual mean discharge indicated that channel width is much more responsive to changes in drainage area and annual mean discharge than are mean channel depth or mean velocity. Cross-sectional area, which combines the effects of channel width and mean channel depth, was also found to be highly responsive to changes in drainage area and annual mean discharge.

Analysis of trends in streamflow and its linkages with rainfall and anthropogenic factors in Gomti River basin of North India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abeysingha, N. S.; Singh, Man; Sehgal, V. K.; Khanna, Manoj; Pathak, Himanshu

2016-02-01

Trend analysis of hydro-climatic variables such as streamflow, rainfall, and temperature provides useful information for effective water resources planning, designing, and management. Trends in observed streamflow at four gauging stations in the Gomti River basin of North India were assessed using the Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope for the 1982 to 2012 period. The relationships between trends in streamflow and rainfall were studied by correlation analyses. There was a gradual decreasing trend of annual, monsoonal, and winter seasonal streamflow ( p < 0.05) from the midstream to the downstream of the river and also a decreasing trend of annual streamflow for the 5-year moving averaged standardized anomalies of streamflow for the entire basin. The declining trend in the streamflow was attributed partly to the increased water withdrawal, to increased air temperature, to higher population, and partly to significant reducing trend of post monsoon rainfall especially at downstream. Upstream gauging station showed a significant increasing trend of streamflow (1.6 m3/s/year) at annual scale, and this trend was attributed to the significant increasing trend of catchment rainfall (9.54 mm/year). It was further evident in the significant coefficient of positive correlation ( ρ = 0.8) between streamflow and catchment rainfall. The decreasing trend in streamflow and post-monsoon rainfall especially towards downstream area with concurrent increasing trend of temperature indicates a drying tendency of the Gomti River basin over the study period. The results of this study may help stakeholders to design streamflow restoration strategies for sustainable water management planning of the Gomti River basin.

Streamflow and Topographic Characteristics of the Platte River near Grand Island, Nebraska, 1938-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodward, Brenda K.

2008-01-01

The central Platte River is a dynamic, braided, sand-bed river located near Grand Island, Nebraska. An understanding of the Platte River channel characteristics, hydrologic flow patterns, and geomorphic conditions is important for the operation and management of water resources by the City of Grand Island. The north channel of the Platte River flows within 1 mile of the municipal well field, and its surface-water flow recharges the underlying aquifer, which serves as a water source for the city. Recharge from the north channel helps minimize the flow of contaminated ground water from the north of the channel towards the well field. In recent years the river channels have experienced no-flow conditions for extended periods during the summer and fall seasons, and it has been observed that no-flow conditions in the north channel often persist after streamflow has returned to the other three channels. This potentially allows more contaminated ground water to move toward the municipal well field each year, and has caused resource managers to ask whether human disturbances or natural geomorphic change have contributed to the increased frequency of no-flow conditions in the north channel. Analyses of aerial photography, channel surveys, Light Detection and Ranging data, discharge measurements, and historical land surveys were used to understand the past and present dynamics of the four channels of the Platte River near Grand Island and to detect changes with time. Results indicate that some minor changes have occurred in the channels. Changes in bed elevation, channel location, and width were minimal when compared using historical information. Changes in discharge distribution among channels indicate that low- and no-flow conditions in the north channel may be attributed to the small changes in channel characteristics or small elevation differences, along with recent reductions in total streamflow within the Platte River near Grand Island, or to factors not measured in this study, such as increased channel roughness from increased vegetation within the channel.