Strong evidence for the influence of solar cycles on a Late Miocene lake system revealed by biotic and abiotic proxies

PubMed Central

Kern, A.K.; Harzhauser, M.; Piller, W.E.; Mandic, O.; Soliman, A.

2012-01-01

The Late Miocene paleogeography of central Europe and its climatic history are well studied with a resolution of c. 106 years. Small-scale climatic variations are yet unresolved. Observing past climatic change of short periods, however, would encourage the understanding of the modern climatic system. Therefore, past climate archives require a resolution on a decadal to millennial scale. To detect such a short-term evolution, a continuous 6-m-core of the Paleo-Lake Pannon was analyzed in 1-cm-sample distance to provide information as precise and regular as possible. Measurements of the natural gamma radiation and magnetic susceptibility combined with the total abundance of ostracod shells were used as proxies to estimate millennial- to centennial scale environmental changes during the mid-Tortonian warm period. Patterns emerged, but no indisputable age model can be provided for the core, due to the lack of paleomagnetic reversals and the lack of minerals suitable for absolute dating. Therefore, herein we propose another method to determine a hypothetic time frame for these deposits. Based on statistical processes, including Lomb–Scargle and REDFIT periodograms along with Wavelet spectra, several distinct cyclicities could be detected. Calculations considering established off-shore sedimentation rates of the Tortonian Vienna Basin revealed patterns resembling Holocene solar-cycle-records well. The comparison of filtered data of Miocene and Holocene records displays highly similar patterns and comparable modulations. A best-fit adjustment of sedimentation rate results in signals which fit to the lower and upper Gleissberg cycle, the de Vries cycle, the unnamed 500-year- and 1000-year-cycles, as well as the Hallstatt cycle. Each of these cycles has a distinct and unique expression in the investigated environmental proxies, reflecting a complex forcing-system. Hence, a single-proxy-analysis, as often performed on Holocene records, should be considered cautiously as it might fail to capture the full range of solar cycles. PMID:23564975

Maritime Continent seasonal climate biases in AMIP experiments of the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toh, Ying Ying; Turner, Andrew G.; Johnson, Stephanie J.; Holloway, Christopher E.

2018-02-01

The fidelity of 28 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models in simulating mean climate over the Maritime Continent in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experiment is evaluated in this study. The performance of AMIP models varies greatly in reproducing seasonal mean climate and the seasonal cycle. The multi-model mean has better skill at reproducing the observed mean climate than the individual models. The spatial pattern of 850 hPa wind is better simulated than the precipitation in all four seasons. We found that model horizontal resolution is not a good indicator of model performance. Instead, a model's local Maritime Continent biases are somewhat related to its biases in the local Hadley circulation and global monsoon. The comparison with coupled models in CMIP5 shows that AMIP models generally performed better than coupled models in the simulation of the global monsoon and local Hadley circulation but less well at simulating the Maritime Continent annual cycle of precipitation. To characterize model systematic biases in the AMIP runs, we performed cluster analysis on Maritime Continent annual cycle precipitation. Our analysis resulted in two distinct clusters. Cluster I models are able to capture both the winter monsoon and summer monsoon shift, but they overestimate the precipitation; especially during the JJA and SON seasons. Cluster II models simulate weaker seasonal migration than observed, and the maximum rainfall position stays closer to the equator throughout the year. The tropics-wide properties of these clusters suggest a connection between the skill of simulating global properties of the monsoon circulation and the skill of simulating the regional scale of Maritime Continent precipitation.

The Impact of the Ocean Sulfur Cycle on Climate using the Community Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Elliott, S. M.; Bergmann, D. J.; Branstetter, M. L.; Chuang, C.; Erickson, D. J.; Jacob, R. L.; Maltrud, M. E.; Mirin, A. A.

2011-12-01

Chemical cycling between the various Earth system components (atmosphere, biosphere, land, ocean, and sea-ice) can cause positive and negative feedbacks on the climate system. The long-standing CLAW/GAIA hypothesis proposed that global warming might stimulate increased production of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) by plankton in the ocean, which would then provide a negative climate feedback through atmospheric oxidation of the DMS to sulfate aerosols that reflect sunlight directly, and indirectly by affecting clouds. Our state-of-the-art earth system model (CESM with an ocean sulfur cycle and atmospheric chemistry) shows increased production of DMS over the 20th century by plankton, particularly in the Southern Ocean and Equatorial Pacific, which leads to modest cooling from direct reflection of sunlight in those regions. This suggests the possibility of local climate change mitigation by the plankton species that produce DMS. Part of this work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Effects of model structural uncertainty on carbon cycle projections: biological nitrogen fixation as a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wieder, William R.; Cleveland, Cory C.; Lawrence, David M.; Bonan, Gordon B.

2015-04-01

Uncertainties in terrestrial carbon (C) cycle projections increase uncertainty of potential climate feedbacks. Efforts to improve model performance often include increased representation of biogeochemical processes, such as coupled carbon-nitrogen (N) cycles. In doing so, models are becoming more complex, generating structural uncertainties in model form that reflect incomplete knowledge of how to represent underlying processes. Here, we explore structural uncertainties associated with biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) and quantify their effects on C cycle projections. We find that alternative plausible structures to represent BNF result in nearly equivalent terrestrial C fluxes and pools through the twentieth century, but the strength of the terrestrial C sink varies by nearly a third (50 Pg C) by the end of the twenty-first century under a business-as-usual climate change scenario representative concentration pathway 8.5. These results indicate that actual uncertainty in future C cycle projections may be larger than previously estimated, and this uncertainty will limit C cycle projections until model structures can be evaluated and refined.

Microbial models with data-driven parameters predict stronger soil carbon responses to climate change.

PubMed

Hararuk, Oleksandra; Smith, Matthew J; Luo, Yiqi

2015-06-01

Long-term carbon (C) cycle feedbacks to climate depend on the future dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC). Current models show low predictive accuracy at simulating contemporary SOC pools, which can be improved through parameter estimation. However, major uncertainty remains in global soil responses to climate change, particularly uncertainty in how the activity of soil microbial communities will respond. To date, the role of microbes in SOC dynamics has been implicitly described by decay rate constants in most conventional global carbon cycle models. Explicitly including microbial biomass dynamics into C cycle model formulations has shown potential to improve model predictive performance when assessed against global SOC databases. This study aimed to data-constrained parameters of two soil microbial models, evaluate the improvements in performance of those calibrated models in predicting contemporary carbon stocks, and compare the SOC responses to climate change and their uncertainties between microbial and conventional models. Microbial models with calibrated parameters explained 51% of variability in the observed total SOC, whereas a calibrated conventional model explained 41%. The microbial models, when forced with climate and soil carbon input predictions from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), produced stronger soil C responses to 95 years of climate change than any of the 11 CMIP5 models. The calibrated microbial models predicted between 8% (2-pool model) and 11% (4-pool model) soil C losses compared with CMIP5 model projections which ranged from a 7% loss to a 22.6% gain. Lastly, we observed unrealistic oscillatory SOC dynamics in the 2-pool microbial model. The 4-pool model also produced oscillations, but they were less prominent and could be avoided, depending on the parameter values. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Analytically tractable climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lade, Steven J.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Fetzer, Ingo; Anderies, John M.; Beer, Christian; Cornell, Sarah E.; Gasser, Thomas; Norberg, Jon; Richardson, Katherine; Rockström, Johan; Steffen, Will

2018-05-01

Changes to climate-carbon cycle feedbacks may significantly affect the Earth system's response to greenhouse gas emissions. These feedbacks are usually analysed from numerical output of complex and arguably opaque Earth system models. Here, we construct a stylised global climate-carbon cycle model, test its output against comprehensive Earth system models, and investigate the strengths of its climate-carbon cycle feedbacks analytically. The analytical expressions we obtain aid understanding of carbon cycle feedbacks and the operation of the carbon cycle. Specific results include that different feedback formalisms measure fundamentally the same climate-carbon cycle processes; temperature dependence of the solubility pump, biological pump, and CO2 solubility all contribute approximately equally to the ocean climate-carbon feedback; and concentration-carbon feedbacks may be more sensitive to future climate change than climate-carbon feedbacks. Simple models such as that developed here also provide workbenches for simple but mechanistically based explorations of Earth system processes, such as interactions and feedbacks between the planetary boundaries, that are currently too uncertain to be included in comprehensive Earth system models.

Dancing on Thinning Ice: Choreography and Science in the Chukchi Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperling, J.

2016-12-01

In 2014, Jody Sperling was the first-ever choreographer in residence to participate in a polar science mission, thanks to an invitation from Dr. Robert Pickart (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution). This 43-day mission (SUBICE) aboard the USCGC Healy traveled to the Chukchi Sea with Sperling serving as part of an outreach team on climate science communication. Since the mission, Sperling has shared her Arctic experience with more than 4,200 people through dozens of live performances, lectures and workshops, plus press coverage across the US. Her film "Ice Floe," created during SUBICE, won a Creative Climate Award and has been aired on Alaska Public Television reaching thousands more. While Arctic sea ice is vitally important to the global climate system, the public knows little about its function (other than as a habitat for polar bears) or its precipitous decline. Sperling's research during the mission focused on sea ice and had three components: 1) As a contributor to SUBICE's Ice Watch Survey, she learned the descriptive nomenclature for sea ice and its processes of formation to transport its dynamics and aesthetics to the stage. This information served as critical inspiration for the creation of her dance work "Ice Cycle" (2015); 2) Sperling collected media samples of sea ice that were subsequently used in performances of "Ice Cycle" as well as her frequent public lectures; 3) Sperling danced on sea ice at a dozen ice stations. In collaboration with the WHOI outreach team, the SUBICE science party and the Healy crew, she created the dance film short "Ice Floe". Sperling's dance company, Time Lapse Dance, has performed "Ice Cycle" as part of the larger program "Bringing the Arctic Home" at many venues nationally and the work has been mounted on students at Brenau University in Georgia. Wherever she performs, Sperling programs talkbacks, lectures and panels with scientists, artists and climate educators, with the aim of increasing awareness of sea ice, the rapid changes happening in the Arctic, the connectedness of our global climate system and stimulating conversations on climate action. Sperling's participation in the SUBICE mission has allowed her to bring a remote region of the world a little closer to home.

Climate and CO2 coupling in the early Cenozoic Greenhouse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rae, J. W. B.; Greenop, R.; Kaminski, M.; Sexton, P. F.; Foster, G. L.; Greene, S. E.; Littley, E.; Kirtland Turner, S.; Ridgwell, A.

2017-12-01

The early Cenozoic is a time of climatic extremes: hyperthermals pepper the transition from extreme global warmth to the start of Cenozoic cooling, with these evolving climate regimes accompanied by major changes in ocean chemistry and biota. The exogenic carbon cycle, and ocean-atmospheric CO2 in particular, is thought to have played a key role in these climatic changes, but the carbon chemistry of the early Cenozoic ocean remains poorly constrained. Here we present new boron isotope data from benthic foraminifera, which can be used to constrain relative changes in ocean pH. These are coupled with modelling experiments performed with the cGenie Earth system model to provide new constraints on the carbon cycle and carbonate system of the early Cenozoic. While our benthic boron isotope data do not readily provide a record of surface ocean CO2 , they do place constraints on the whole ocean-atmosphere carbonate system, alongside changes in ocean circulation and biogeochemistry, and also have relatively robust calcite tests and small `vital effects'. During the late Paleocene ascent to peak greenhouse conditions and the middle Eocene descent towards the icehouse, our boron isotope data show close coupling with benthic δ18O, demonstrating a clear link between CO2 and climate. However within the early Eocene our boron isotope data reveal more dynamic changes in deep ocean pH, which may be linked to changes in ocean circulation. Overall, our data demonstrate the ability of CO2 to regulate the climate system across varying boundary conditions, and the influence of both the long-term carbon cycle and shorter-term ocean biogeochemical cycling on Earth's climate.

Evaluation of hydrological cycle in the major European midlatitude river basins in the frame of the CORDEX project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgievski, Goran; Keuler, Klaus

2013-04-01

Water supply and its potential to increase social, economic and environmental risks are among the most critical challenges for the upcoming decades. Therefore, the assessment of the reliability of regional climate models (RCMs) to represent present-day hydrological balance of river basins is one of the most challenging tasks with high priority for climate modelling in order to estimate range of possible socio-economic impacts of the climate change. However, previous work in the frame of 4th IPCC AR and corresponding regional downscaling experiments (with focus on Europe and Danube river basin) showed that even the meteorological re-analyses provide unreliable data set for evaluations of climate model performance. Furthermore, large discrepancies among the RCMs are caused by internal model deficiencies (for example: systematic errors in dynamics, land-soil parameterizations, large-scale condensation and convection schemes), and in spite of higher resolution RCMs do not always improve much the results from GCMs, but even deteriorate it in some cases. All that has a consequence that capturing impact of climate change on hydrological cycle is not an easy task. Here we present state of the art of RCMs in the frame of the CORDEX project for Europe. First analysis shows again that even the up to date ERA-INTERIM re-analysis is not reliable for evaluation of hydrological cycle in major European midlatitude river basins (Seine, Rhine, Elbe, Oder, Vistula, Danube, Po, Rhone, Garonne and Ebro). Therefore, terrestrial water storage, a quasi observed parameter which is a combination of river discharge (from Global River Discharge Centre data set) and atmospheric moisture fluxes from ERA-INTERIM re-analysis, is used for verification. It shows qualitatively good agreement with COSMO-CLM (CCLM) regional climate simulation (abbreviated CCLM_eval) at 0.11 degrees horizontal resolution forced by ERA-INTERIM re-analysis. Furthermore, intercomparison of terrestrial water storage seasonal cycle averaged in Danube river basin for the ten years (1990-1999) overlapping period between CCLM historical experiment (abbreviated CCLM_hist), its forcing GCM (MPI-ESM-LR, here abbreviated MPI_hist) and CCLM_eval is performed. It reveals that CCLM_hist simulation is in better agreement with quasi observed terrestrial water storage than MPI_hist and CCLM_eval. This result seems promising for the assessment of impact of climate change on hydrological cycle. However, evaluation of the whole ensemble of regional climate downscaling experiments participated in CORDEX-Europe project would provide a more robust estimate.

Representation of deforestation impacts on climate, water, and nutrient cycles in the ACME earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, X.; Riley, W. J.; Zhu, Q.

2017-12-01

Deforestation causes a series of changes to the climate, water, and nutrient cycles. Employing a state-of-the-art earth system model—ACME (Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy), we comprehensively investigate the impacts of deforestation on these processes. We first assess the performance of the ACME Land Model (ALM) in simulating runoff, evapotranspiration, albedo, and plant productivity at 42 FLUXNET sites. The single column mode of ACME is then used to examine climate effects (temperature cooling/warming) and responses of runoff, evapotranspiration, and nutrient fluxes to deforestation. This approach separates local effects of deforestation from global circulation effects. To better understand the deforestation effects in a global context, we use the coupled (atmosphere, land, and slab ocean) mode of ACME to demonstrate the impacts of deforestation on global climate, water, and nutrient fluxes. Preliminary results showed that the land component of ACME has advantages in simulating these processes and that local deforestation has potentially large impacts on runoff and atmospheric processes.

Climate Prediction Center - The ENSO Cycle

Science.gov Websites

Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Web resources and services. HOME > El Niño/La Niña > The ENSO Cycle ENSO Cycle Banner Climate for Weather and Climate Prediction Climate Prediction Center 5830 University Research Court College

Climate variability drives population cycling and synchrony

Treesearch

Lars Y. Pomara; Benjamin Zuckerberg

2017-01-01

Aim There is mounting concern that climate change will lead to the collapse of cyclic population dynamics, yet the influence of climate variability on population cycling remains poorly understood. We hypothesized that variability in survival and fecundity, driven by climate variability at different points in the life cycle, scales up from...

Visualizing land-use and management complexity within biogeochemical cycles of an agricultural landscape

Treesearch

Kai Nils Nitzsche; Gernot Verch; Katrin Premke; Arthur Gessler; Zachary Kayler

2016-01-01

Crop fields are cultivated across continuities of soil, topography, and local climate that drive biological processes and nutrient cycling at the landscape scale; yet land management and agricultural research are often performed at the field scale, potentially neglecting the context of the surrounding landscape. Adding to this complexity is the overlap of ecosystems...

The Effects of Climate Sensitivity and Carbon Cycle Interactions on Mitigation Policy Stringency

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Calvin, Katherine V.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Edmonds, James A.

2015-07-01

Climate sensitivity and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks interact to determine how global carbon and energy cycles will change in the future. While the science of these connections is well documented, their economic implications are not well understood. Here we examine the effect of climate change on the carbon cycle, the uncertainty in climate outcomes inherent in any given policy target, and the economic implications. We examine three policy scenarios—a no policy “Reference” (REF) scenario, and two policies that limit total radiative forcing—with four climate sensitivities using a coupled integrated assessment model. Like previous work, we find that, within a given scenario,more » there is a wide range of temperature change and sea level rise depending on the realized climate sensitivity. We expand on this previous work to show that temperature-related feedbacks on the carbon cycle result in more mitigation required as climate sensitivity increases. Thus, achieving a particular radiative forcing target becomes increasingly expensive as climate sensitivity increases.« less

High Resolution Climate Modeling of the Water Cycle over the Contiguous United States Including Potential Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, R.; Ikeda, K.; Liu, C.; Gochis, D.; Chen, F.; Barlage, M. J.; Dai, A.; Dudhia, J.; Clark, M. P.; Gutmann, E. D.; Li, Y.

2015-12-01

The NCAR Water System program strives to improve the full representation of the water cycle in both regional and global models. Our previous high-resolution simulations using the WRF model over the Rocky Mountains revealed that proper spatial and temporal depiction of snowfall adequate for water resource and climate change purposes can be achieved with the appropriate choice of model grid spacing (< 6 km horizontal) and parameterizations. The climate sensitivity experiment consistent with expected climate change showed an altered hydrological cycle with increased fraction of rain versus snow, increased snowfall at high altitudes, earlier melting of snowpack, and decreased total runoff. In order to investigate regional differences between the Rockies and other major mountain barriers and to study climate change impacts over other regions of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS), we have expanded our prior CO Headwaters modeling study to encompass most of North America at a horizontal grid spacing of 4 km. A domain expansion provides the opportunity to assess changes in orographic precipitation across different mountain ranges in the western USA, as well as the very dominant role of convection in the eastern half of the USA. The high resolution WRF-downscaled climate change data will also become a valuable community resource for many university groups who are interested in studying regional climate changes and impacts but unable to perform such long-duration and high-resolution WRF-based downscaling simulations of their own. The scientific goals and details of the model dataset will be presented including some preliminary results.

Simulated Effect of Carbon Cycle Feedback on Climate Response to Solar Geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Long; Jiang, Jiu

2017-12-01

Most modeling studies investigate climate effects of solar geoengineering under prescribed atmospheric CO2, thereby neglecting potential climate feedbacks from the carbon cycle. Here we use an Earth system model to investigate interactive feedbacks between solar geoengineering, global carbon cycle, and climate change. We design idealized sunshade geoengineering simulations to prevent global warming from exceeding 2°C above preindustrial under a CO2 emission scenario with emission mitigation starting from middle of century. By year 2100, solar geoengineering reduces the burden of atmospheric CO2 by 47 PgC with enhanced carbon storage in the terrestrial biosphere. As a result of reduced atmospheric CO2, consideration of the carbon cycle feedback reduces required insolation reduction in 2100 from 2.0 to 1.7 W m-2. With higher climate sensitivity the effect from carbon cycle feedback becomes more important. Our study demonstrates the importance of carbon cycle feedback in climate response to solar geoengineering.

Imprint of long-term solar signal in groundwater recharge fluctuation rates from Northwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, R. K.; Rajesh, Rekapalli

2014-05-01

Multiple spectral and statistical analyses of a 700 yearlong temporal record of groundwater recharge from the dry lands, Badain Jaran Desert (Inner Mongolia) of Northwest China reveal a stationary harmonic cycle at ~200 ± 20 year. Interestingly, the underlying periodicity in groundwater recharge fluctuations is similar to those of solar-induced climate cycle "Suess wiggles" and appears to be coherent with phases of the climate fluctuations and solar cycles. Matching periodicity of groundwater recharge rates and solar and climate cycles renders a strong impression that solar-induced climate signals may act as a critical amplifier for driving the underlying hydrographic cycle through the common coupling of long-term Sun-climate groundwater linkages.

Environmental Impact of Buildings--What Matters?

PubMed

Heeren, Niko; Mutel, Christopher L; Steubing, Bernhard; Ostermeyer, York; Wallbaum, Holger; Hellweg, Stefanie

2015-08-18

The goal of this study was to identify drivers of environmental impact and quantify their influence on the environmental performance of wooden and massive residential and office buildings. We performed a life cycle assessment and used thermal simulation to quantify operational energy demand and to account for differences in thermal inertia of building mass. Twenty-eight input parameters, affecting operation, design, material, and exogenic building properties were sampled in a Monte Carlo analysis. To determine sensitivity, we calculated the correlation between each parameter and the resulting life cycle inventory and impact assessment scores. Parameters affecting operational energy demand and energy conversion are the most influential for the building's total environmental performance. For climate change, electricity mix, ventilation rate, heating system, and construction material rank the highest. Thermal inertia results in an average 2-6% difference in heat demand. Nonrenewable cumulative energy demand of wooden buildings is 18% lower, compared to a massive variant. Total cumulative energy demand is comparable. The median climate change impact is 25% lower, including end-of-life material credits and 22% lower, when credits are excluded. The findings are valid for small offices and residential buildings in Switzerland and regions with similar building culture, construction material production, and climate.

Understanding the major transitions in Quaternary climate dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willeit, Matteo; Ganopolski, Andrey

2017-04-01

Climate dynamics over the past 3 million years was characterized by strong variability associated with glacial cycles and several distinct regime changes. The Pliocene-Pleistocene Transition (PPT), which happened around 2.7 million years ago, was characterized by the appearance of the large continental ice sheets over Northern Eurasia and North America. For two million years after the PPT climate variability was dominated by relatively symmetric 40 kyr cycles. At around 1 million years ago the dominant mode of climate variability experienced a relatively rapid transition from 40 kyr to strongly asymmetric 100 kyr cycles of larger amplitude (Mid-Pleistocene Transition). Additionally, during the past 800 kyr there are clear differences between the earlier and the later glacial cycles with the last five cycles characterized by larger magnitude of variability (Mid-Brunhes Event). Here, we use the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 to explore possible mechanisms that could explain these regime shifts. CLIMBER-2 incorporates all major components of the Earth system - atmosphere, ocean, land surface, northern hemisphere ice sheets, terrestrial biota and soil carbon, marine biogeochemistry and aeolian dust. The model was optimally tuned to reproduce climate, ice volume and CO2 variability over the last 400,000 years. Using the same model version, we performed a large set of simulations covering the entire Quaternary (3 million years) starting from identical initial conditions and using a parallelization in time technique which consists of starting the model at different times (every 100,000 years) and running each simulation for 500,000 years. The Earth's orbital variations are the only prescribed radiative forcing. Several sets of the Northern Hemisphere orography and sediment thickness representing different stages of landscape evolution during the Quaternary are prescribed as boundary conditions for the ice sheet model and volcanic CO2 outgassing is used as the external forcing for the carbon cycle to allow for different background atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We show that by varying only these two model boundary conditions and volcanic forcing the model is able to reproduce the major regime changes of Quaternary long-term climate dynamics.

Investigating the impact of diurnal cycle of SST on the intraseasonal and climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tseng, W. L.; Hsu, H. H.; Chang, C. W. J.; Keenlyside, N. S.; Lan, Y. Y.; Tsuang, B. J.; Tu, C. Y.

2016-12-01

The diurnal cycle is a prominent feature of our climate system and the most familiar example of externally forced variability. Despite this it remains poorly simulated in state-of-the-art climate models. A particular problem is the diurnal cycle in sea surface temperature (SST), which is a key variable in air-sea heat flux exchange. In most models the diurnal cycle in SST is not well resolved, due to insufficient vertical resolution in the upper ocean mixed-layer and insufficiently frequent ocean-atmosphere coupling. Here, we coupled a 1-dimensional ocean model (SIT) to two atmospheric general circulation model (ECHAM5 and CAM5). In particular, we focus on improving the representations of the diurnal cycle in SST in a climate model, and investigate the role of the diurnal cycle in climate and intraseasonal variability.

Climatic and biotic drivers of tropical evergreen forest photosynthesis: integrating field, eddy flux, remote sensing and modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, J.; Serbin, S.; Xu, X.; Guan, K.; Albert, L.; Hayek, M.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Lopes, A. P.; Wiedemann, K. T.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Meng, R.; De Araujo, A. C.; Oliveira Junior, R. C.; Camargo, P. B. D.; Silva, R. D.; Nelson, B. W.; Huete, A. R.; Rogers, A.; Saleska, S. R.

2016-12-01

Tropical evergreen forest photosynthetic metabolism is an important driver of large-scale carbon, water, and energy cycles, generating various climate feedbacks. However, considerable uncertainties remain regarding how best to represent evergreen forest photosynthesis in current terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), especially its sensitivity to climatic vs. biotic variation. Here, we develop a new approach to partition climatic and biotic controls on tropical forest photosynthesis from hourly to inter-annual timescales. Our results show that climatic factors dominate photosynthesis dynamics at shorter-time scale (i.e. hourly), while biotic factors dominate longer-timescale (i.e. monthly and longer) photosynthetic dynamics. Focusing on seasonal timescales, we combine camera and ecosystem carbon flux observations of forests across a rainfall gradient in Amazonia to show that high dry season leaf turnover shifts canopy composition towards younger more efficient leaves. This seasonal variation in leaf quality (per-area leaf photosynthetic capacity) thus can explain the high photosynthetic seasonality observed in the tropics. Finally, we evaluated the performance of models with different phenological schemes (i.e. leaf quantity versus leaf quality; with and without leaf phenological variation alone the vertical canopy profile). We found that models which represented the phenology of leaf quality and its within-canopy variation performed best in simulating photosynthetic seasonality in tropical evergreen forests. This work highlights the importance of incorporating improved understanding of climatic and biotic controls in next generation TBMs to project future carbon and water cycles in the tropics.

Effects of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion, Solar UV Radiation, and Climate Change on Biogeochemical Cycling: Interactions and Feedbacks

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change modulates the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, particularly for carbon cycling, resulting in UV-mediated positive or negative feedbacks on climate. Possible positive feedbacks discussed in this assessment...

The effects of climate sensitivity and carbon cycle interactions on mitigation policy stringency

EPA Science Inventory

Climate sensitivity and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks interact to determine how global carbon and energy cycles will change in the future. While the science of these connections is well documented, their economic implications are not well understood. Here we examine the effect o...

Performance optimization of a photovoltaic chain conversion by the PWM control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rezoug, M. R.; Chenni, R.

2017-02-01

The interest of the research technique of maximum power point tracking, exposed by this article, lays in the fact of work instantly on the real characteristic of the photovoltaic module. This work is based on instantaneous measurements of its terminals' current & voltage as well as the exploitation of the characteristic "Power - Duty Cycle" to define rapidly the Duty cycle in which power reaches its maximum value. To ensure instantaneous tracking of the point of maximum power, we use "DC/DC Converter" based on "Pulse Wave Modulation's (PWM) Command" controlled by an algorithm implanted in a microcontroller's memory. This algorithm responds to the quick changes in climate (sunlight and temperature). To identify the control parameters "VPV & IPV" at any change in operating conditions, sensors are projected. this algorithm applied to the Duty cycle of the static converter enables the control of power supplied by the photovoltaic generator thanks to oscillatory movement around the MPP. Our article highlights the importance of this technique which lays in its simplicity and performance in changing climatic conditions. This efficiency is confirmed by experimental tests and this technique will improve its predecessors.

Paleo Data Assimilation of Pseudo-Tree-Ring-Width Chronologies in a Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fallah Hassanabadi, B.; Acevedo, W.; Reich, S.; Cubasch, U.

2016-12-01

Using the Time-Averaged Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and a forward model, we assimilate the pseudo Tree-Ring-Width (TRW) chronologies into an Atmospheric Global Circulation model. This study investigates several aspects of Paleo-Data Assimilation (PDA) within a perfect-model set-up: (i) we test the performance of several forward operators in the framework of a PDA-based climate reconstruction, (ii) compare the PDA-based simulations' skill against the free ensemble runs and (iii) inverstigate the skill of the "online" (with cycling) DA and the "off-line" (no-cycling) DA. In our experiments, the "online" (with cycling) PDA approach did not outperform the "off-line" (no-cycling) one, despite its considerable additional implementation complexity. On the other hand, it was observed that the error reduction achieved by assimilating a particular pseudo-TRW chronology is modulated by the strength of the yearly internal variability of the model at the chronology site. This result might help the dendrochronology community to optimize their sampling efforts.

Assessing cost-effectiveness of bioretention on stormwater in response to climate change and urbanization for future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Mo; Zhang, Dongqing; Adhityan, Appan; Ng, Wun Jern; Dong, Jianwen; Tan, Soon Keat

2016-12-01

Bioretention, as a popular low impact development practice, has become more important to mitigate adverse impacts on urban stormwater. However, there is very limited information regarding ensuring the effectiveness of bioretention response to uncertain future challenges, especially when taking into consideration climate change and urbanization. The main objective of this paper is to identify the cost-effectiveness of bioretention by assessing the hydrology performance under future scenarios modeling. First, the hydrology model was used to obtain peak runoff and TSS loads of bioretention with variable scales under different scenarios, i.e., different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-economic reference Pathways (SSPs) for 2-year and 10-year design storms in Singapore. Then, life cycle costing (LCC) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were estimated for bioretention, and the cost-effectiveness was identified under different scenarios. Our finding showed that there were different degree of responses to 2-year and 10-year design storms but the general patterns and insights deduced were similar. The performance of bioretenion was more sensitive to urbanization than that for climate change in the urban catchment. In addition, it was noted that the methodology used in this study was generic and the findings could be useful as reference for other LID practices in response to climate change and urbanization.

The Modulated Annual Cycle: An Alternative Reference Frame for Climate Anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Z.

2007-12-01

In climate science, an anomaly is the deviation of a quantity from its annual cycle (AC). There are many ways to define annual cycle. Traditionally, the annual cycle is taken to be an exact repetition of itself year after year. This stationary annual cycle may not reflect well the intrinsic nonlinearity of the climate system, especially under external forcing. In this study, we have reexamined the reference frame for anomalies by reexamining the annual cycle. We propose an alternative reference frame, the modulated annual cycle (MAC) that allows the annual cycle to change from year to year, for defining anomalies. In order for this alternative reference frame to be useful, we need to be able to define the instantaneous annual cycle. We therefore also introduce a new method to extract the MAC from climatic data. In the presence of an MAC, modulated in both amplitude and frequency, we can then define an alternative version of an anomaly, this time with respect to the instantaneous MAC rather than a permanent and unchanging AC. Based on this alternative definition of anomalies, we reexamine some familiar physical processes: in particular, the sea surface temperature (SST) reemergence and the ENSO phase locking to the annual cycle. We find that the re-emergence mechanism may be alternatively interpreted as an explanation of the change of the annual cycle instead of the interannual to interdecadal persistence of SST anomalies. We also find that the ENSO phase locking can largely be attributed to the residual annual cycle (the difference of the MAC and the corresponding traditional annual cycle) contained in the traditional anomaly, and, therefore, can be alternatively interpreted as a part of the annual cycle phase locked to the annual cycle itself. Two additional examples are also presented of the implications of using a MAC against which to define anomalies. We show that using MAC as a reference framework for anomaly can bypass the difficulty brought by concepts such as "decadal variability of summer (or winter) climate" for understanding the low-frequency variability of the climate system. We also point out the drawbacks related to the stationary assumption in previous studies of extreme weather and climate and propose instead the appropriateness of choosing a non-stationary framework to study extreme weather and climate events. The concept of an amplitude and frequency modulated annual cycle, a method to extract it, and its implications for the interpretation of physical processes, all may contribute potentially to a more consistent and fruitful way of examining past and future climate variability and change.

Reducing the Carbon Footprint of Commercial Refrigeration Systems Using Life Cycle Climate Performance Analysis: From System Design to Refrigerant Options

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fricke, Brian A; Abdelaziz, Omar; Vineyard, Edward Allan

In this paper, Life Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP) analysis is used to estimate lifetime direct and indirect carbon dioxide equivalent gas emissions of various refrigerant options and commercial refrigeration system designs, including the multiplex DX system with various hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants, the HFC/R744 cascade system incorporating a medium-temperature R744 secondary loop, and the transcritical R744 booster system. The results of the LCCP analysis are presented, including the direct and indirect carbon dioxide equivalent emissions for each refrigeration system and refrigerant option. Based on the results of the LCCP analysis, recommendations are given for the selection of low GWP replacement refrigerantsmore » for use in existing commercial refrigeration systems, as well as for the selection of commercial refrigeration system designs with low carbon dioxide equivalent emissions, suitable for new installations.« less

The biological carbon pump in the ocean: Reviewing model representations and its feedbacks on climate perturbations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hülse, Dominik; Arndt, Sandra; Ridgwell, Andy; Wilson, Jamie

2016-04-01

The ocean-sediment system, as the biggest carbon reservoir in the Earth's carbon cycle, plays a crucial role in regulating atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and climate. Therefore, it is essential to constrain the importance of marine carbon cycle feedbacks on global warming and ocean acidification. Arguably, the most important single component of the ocean's carbon cycle is the so-called "biological carbon pump". It transports carbon that is fixed in the light-flooded surface layer of the ocean to the deep ocean and the surface sediment, where it is degraded/dissolved or finally buried in the deep sediments. Over the past decade, progress has been made in understanding different factors that control the efficiency of the biological carbon pump and their feedbacks on the global carbon cycle and climate (i.e. ballasting = ocean acidification feedback; temperature dependant organic matter degradation = global warming feedback; organic matter sulphurisation = anoxia/euxinia feedback). Nevertheless, many uncertainties concerning the interplay of these processes and/or their relative significance remain. In addition, current Earth System Models tend to employ empirical and static parameterisations of the biological pump. As these parametric representations are derived from a limited set of present-day observations, their ability to represent carbon cycle feedbacks under changing climate conditions is limited. The aim of my research is to combine past carbon cycling information with a spatially resolved global biogeochemical model to constrain the functioning of the biological pump and to base its mathematical representation on a more mechanistic approach. Here, I will discuss important aspects that control the efficiency of the ocean's biological carbon pump, review how these processes of first order importance are mathematically represented in existing Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) and distinguish different approaches to approximate biogeochemical processes in the sediments. The performance of the respective mathematical representations in constraining the importance of carbon pump feedbacks on marine biogeochemical dynamics is then compared and evaluated under different extreme climate scenarios (e.g. OAE2, Eocene) using the Earth system model 'GENIE' and proxy records. The compiled mathematical descriptions and the model results underline the lack of a complete and mechanistic framework to represent the short-term carbon cycle in most EMICs which seriously limits the ability of these models to constrain the response of the ocean's carbon cycle to past and in particular future climate change. In conclusion, this presentation will critically evaluate the approaches currently used in marine biogeochemical modelling and outline key research directions concerning model development in the future.

Consequences of climate change for biogeochemical cycling in forests of northeastern North America

Treesearch

John L. Campbell; Lindsey E. Rustad; Elizabeth W. Boyer; Sheila F. Christopher; Charles T. Driscoll; Ivan .J. Fernandez; Peter M. Groffman; Daniel Houle; Jana Kiekbusch; Alison H. Magill; Myron J. Mitchell; Scott V. Ollinger

2009-01-01

A critical component of assessing the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems involves understanding associated changes in biogeochemical cycling of elements. Evidence from research on northeastern North American forests shows that direct effects of climate change will evoke changes in biogeochemical cycling by altering plant physiology forest productivity, and...

Highway pavement performance test for colored thin anti-skidding layers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Wei; Cui, Wei; Xu, Ming

2018-03-01

Based on the actual service condition of highway pavement colored thin anti-skidding layers, with materials of color quartz sand and two-component acrylic resin as basis, we designed such tests as the bond strength, shearing strength, tear strength, fatigue performance and aggregate polished value, and included the freeze-thaw cycle and de-icing salt and other factors in the experiment, connecting with the climate characteristics of circumpolar latitude and low altitude in Heilongjiang province. Through the pavement performance test, it is confirmed that the colored thin anti-skidding layers can adapt to cold and humid climate conditions, and its physical mechanical properties are good.

Preview of Our Changing Planet. The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2008

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-04-01

reduce the uncertainty in predictions of the global and regional water cycle and surface climate. Sunlight not reflected back to space provides the...research elements include atmospheric composition, climate variability and change, the global water cycle , land-use and land-cover change, the global...entire planet, and researchers with the ability to better explain observed changes in the climate system. Global Water Cycle – Research associated with

Uncertainty and the Social Cost of Methane Using Bayesian Constrained Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Errickson, F. C.; Anthoff, D.; Keller, K.

2016-12-01

Social cost estimates of greenhouse gases are important for the design of sound climate policies and are also plagued by uncertainty. One major source of uncertainty stems from the simplified representation of the climate system used in the integrated assessment models that provide these social cost estimates. We explore how uncertainty over the social cost of methane varies with the way physical processes and feedbacks in the methane cycle are modeled by (i) coupling three different methane models to a simple climate model, (ii) using MCMC to perform a Bayesian calibration of the three coupled climate models that simulates direct sampling from the joint posterior probability density function (pdf) of model parameters, and (iii) producing probabilistic climate projections that are then used to calculate the Social Cost of Methane (SCM) with the DICE and FUND integrated assessment models. We find that including a temperature feedback in the methane cycle acts as an additional constraint during the calibration process and results in a correlation between the tropospheric lifetime of methane and several climate model parameters. This correlation is not seen in the models lacking this feedback. Several of the estimated marginal pdfs of the model parameters also exhibit different distributional shapes and expected values depending on the methane model used. As a result, probabilistic projections of the climate system out to the year 2300 exhibit different levels of uncertainty and magnitudes of warming for each of the three models under an RCP8.5 scenario. We find these differences in climate projections result in differences in the distributions and expected values for our estimates of the SCM. We also examine uncertainty about the SCM by performing a Monte Carlo analysis using a distribution for the climate sensitivity while holding all other climate model parameters constant. Our SCM estimates using the Bayesian calibration are lower and exhibit less uncertainty about extremely high values in the right tail of the distribution compared to the Monte Carlo approach. This finding has important climate policy implications and suggests previous work that accounts for climate model uncertainty by only varying the climate sensitivity parameter may overestimate the SCM.

Spurious Additional Warming Reconstructed From Borehole Temperatures Corrected for the Effect of the Last Glacial Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Šafanda, Jan

2018-03-01

Reconstructions of past ground surface temperature changes from temperature logs conducted in several hundred meter deep boreholes have proved to be a valuable independent source of information on climate variations over the last millennium. The reconstruction techniques have been evolving for more than two decades to extract optimally the climate signal of the last millennium contained in the temperature logs of different length performed in sites with different histories of the Last Glacial Cycle. This paper analyzes the method of the Last Glacial Cycle thermal effect removal from such borehole temperature profiles used by Beltrami et al. (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071317) in reconstructing the last 500 year history. I show that the reported results of additional warming in this period reconstructed from the corrected borehole data for North America are an artifact generated by the correction.

Will growing forests make the global warming problem better or worse?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldeira, K.; Gibbard, S.; Bala, G.; Wickett, M. E.; Phillips, T. J.

2005-12-01

Carbon storage in forests has been promoted as a means to slow global warming. However, forests affect climate not only through the carbon cycle; forests also affect both the absorption of solar radiation and evapotranspiration. Previously, it has been shown that boreal forests have the potential to warm the planet, offsetting the benefits of carbon storage in boreal forests (Betts, Nature 408, 187-190, 2000). Here, we show that direct climate effects of forest growth in mid-latitudes also have the potential to offset benefits of carbon storage. This suggests that mid-latitude afforestation projects must be evaluated very carefully, taking direct climate effects into account. In contrast, low-latitude tropical forests appear to cool the planet both by storing carbon and by increasing evapotranspiration; thus, slowing or reversing tropical deforestation is a win/win strategy from both carbon storage and direct climate perspectives. Evaluation of costs and benefits of afforestation depends on the time scales under consideration. On the shortest time scale, each unit of CO2 taken up by a plant is removed from the atmosphere. However, over centuries most of this CO2 taken up from the atmosphere by plants is replaced by outgassing from the ocean. On the longest time scales, atmospheric carbon dioxide content is controlled by the carbonate-silicate cycle, so the amount of carbon stored in a forest is not relevant to long-term climate change. While atmospheric CO2 impacts of afforestation diminish over time, the direct effects on climate (and silicate weathering) persist, so these effects become more important as the time scale of concern lengthens. In some cases, afforestation is predicted to lead to cooling on the time scale of decades followed by warming on the time scale of centuries. Our study involves simulations using the NCAR CAM3 atmospheric general circulation model with a slab ocean to perform idealized (and extreme) land-cover change simulations. We explore the time-dependent carbon-cycle/climate implications of these results using a schematic model of the long-term carbon cycle and climate.

Pervasive drought legacies in forest ecosystems and their implications for carbon cycle models

Treesearch

W. R. L. Anderegg; C. Schwalm; F. Biondi; J. J. Camarero; G. Koch; M. Litvak; K. Ogle; J. D. Shaw; E. Shevliakova; A. P. Williams; A. Wolf; E. Ziaco; S. Pacala

2015-01-01

The impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems are poorly understood but important for predicting carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change. Coupled climate-carbon cycle models typically assume that vegetation recovery from extreme drought is immediate and complete, which conflicts with the understanding of basic plant physiology. We examined the recovery of...

Climate change and the water cycle: A new southwest regional climate hub curriculum unit for 6th-12th grade students

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As climate change intensifies, increased temperatures and altered precipitation will make water, a limited resource in the arid southwestern United States, even scarcer in many locations. The USDA Southwest Regional Climate Hub (SWRCH) developed Climate Change and the Water Cycle, an engaging and sc...

The Bern Simple Climate Model (BernSCM) v1.0: an extensible and fully documented open-source re-implementation of the Bern reduced-form model for global carbon cycle-climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strassmann, Kuno M.; Joos, Fortunat

2018-05-01

The Bern Simple Climate Model (BernSCM) is a free open-source re-implementation of a reduced-form carbon cycle-climate model which has been used widely in previous scientific work and IPCC assessments. BernSCM represents the carbon cycle and climate system with a small set of equations for the heat and carbon budget, the parametrization of major nonlinearities, and the substitution of complex component systems with impulse response functions (IRFs). The IRF approach allows cost-efficient yet accurate substitution of detailed parent models of climate system components with near-linear behavior. Illustrative simulations of scenarios from previous multimodel studies show that BernSCM is broadly representative of the range of the climate-carbon cycle response simulated by more complex and detailed models. Model code (in Fortran) was written from scratch with transparency and extensibility in mind, and is provided open source. BernSCM makes scientifically sound carbon cycle-climate modeling available for many applications. Supporting up to decadal time steps with high accuracy, it is suitable for studies with high computational load and for coupling with integrated assessment models (IAMs), for example. Further applications include climate risk assessment in a business, public, or educational context and the estimation of CO2 and climate benefits of emission mitigation options.

Analysis of temperature difference on the total of energy expenditure during static bicycle exercise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiono

2016-04-01

How to manage energy expenditure for cyclist is very crucial part to achieve a good performance. As the tropical situation, the differences of temperature level might be contributed in energy expenditure and durability. The aim of the paper is to estimate and to analysis the configuration of energy expenditure for static cycling activity based on heart rate value in room with air conditioning (AC)/no AC treatment. The research is started with study literatures of climate factors, temperature impact on human body, and definition of energy expenditure. The next step is design the experiment for 5 participants in 2 difference models for 26.80C - 74% relative humidity (room no AC) and 23,80C - 54.8% relative humidity (room with AC). The participants’ heart rate and blood pressure are measured in rest condition and in cycling condition to know the impact of difference temperature in energy expenditure profile. According to the experiment results, the reducing of the temperature has significantly impact on the decreasing of energy expenditure at average 0.3 Kcal/minute for all 5 performers. Finally, the research shows that climate condition (temperature and relative humidity) are very important factors to manage and to reach a higher performance of cycling sport.

The role of pCO2 in astronomically-paced climate and carbon cycle variations in the Middle Miocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penman, D. E.; Hull, P. M.; Scher, H.; Kirtland Turner, S.; Ridgwell, A.

2017-12-01

The pace of Earth's background climate variability is known to be driven by the Milankovitch cycles, variations in Earth's orbital parameters and axial tilt. While the Milankovitch (orbital) theory of climate change is very nearly universally accepted, the climate system mechanisms and feedbacks responsible for amplifying orbital cycles preserved in the geologic record remain uncertain. For the late Pleistocene, the ice core-derived record of atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) is strongly coupled with global temperature on orbital time scales, indicating that internal feedbacks involving the carbon cycle amplify or even cause the large changes in global temperature during orbitally driven glacial-interglacial cycles. However, for earlier time periods beyond the range of ice cores (the last 800 kyr), it is not possible to directly compare records of pCO2 to orbital climate cycles because there are no high-resolution (orbitally resolved) records of pCO2 before the Pliocene. We address this deficiency with a high-resolution ( 5-10 kyr spacing) record of planktonic foraminiferal d11B-derived surface seawater pH (as well as d13C and trace metal analyses) over a 500 kyr time window in a sedimentary record with known Milankovitch-scale climate and carbon cycle oscillations: the Middle Miocene (14.0 - 14.5 Ma) at ODP Site 926 (subtropical North Atlantic). The resulting pH record can be used to constrain atmospheric pCO2, allowing comparison of the timescale and magnitude of carbon cycle changes during a period of eccentricity-dominated variability in the response of the global climate system (the Late Pleistocene) with a period of obliquity-dominance (the middle Miocene). These new records of planktic d11B and d13C will then be used to guide simulations of astronomical climate forcing in Earth System models, resulting in refined estimates of pCO2 changes over orbital cycles and providing quantitative constraints on the mechanisms and feedbacks responsible for the Milankovitch control of climate and carbon cycling.

Association of Climatic Variability, Vector Population and Malarial Disease in District of Visakhapatnam, India: A Modeling and Prediction Analysis.

PubMed

Srimath-Tirumula-Peddinti, Ravi Chandra Pavan Kumar; Neelapu, Nageswara Rao Reddy; Sidagam, Naresh

2015-01-01

Malarial incidence, severity, dynamics and distribution of malaria are strongly determined by climatic factors, i.e., temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. The objectives of the current study were to analyse and model the relationships among climate, vector and malaria disease in district of Visakhapatnam, India to understand malaria transmission mechanism (MTM). Epidemiological, vector and climate data were analysed for the years 2005 to 2011 in Visakhapatnam to understand the magnitude, trends and seasonal patterns of the malarial disease. Statistical software MINITAB ver. 14 was used for performing correlation, linear and multiple regression analysis. Perennial malaria disease incidence and mosquito population was observed in the district of Visakhapatnam with peaks in seasons. All the climatic variables have a significant influence on disease incidence as well as on mosquito populations. Correlation coefficient analysis, seasonal index and seasonal analysis demonstrated significant relationships among climatic factors, mosquito population and malaria disease incidence in the district of Visakhapatnam, India. Multiple regression and ARIMA (I) models are best suited models for modeling and prediction of disease incidences and mosquito population. Predicted values of average temperature, mosquito population and malarial cases increased along with the year. Developed MTM algorithm observed a major MTM cycle following the June to August rains and occurring between June to September and minor MTM cycles following March to April rains and occurring between March to April in the district of Visakhapatnam. Fluctuations in climatic factors favored an increase in mosquito populations and thereby increasing the number of malarial cases. Rainfall, temperatures (20°C to 33°C) and humidity (66% to 81%) maintained a warmer, wetter climate for mosquito growth, parasite development and malaria transmission. Changes in climatic factors influence malaria directly by modifying the behaviour and geographical distribution of vectors and by changing the length of the life cycle of the parasite.

Association of Climatic Variability, Vector Population and Malarial Disease in District of Visakhapatnam, India: A Modeling and Prediction Analysis

PubMed Central

Srimath-Tirumula-Peddinti, Ravi Chandra Pavan Kumar; Neelapu, Nageswara Rao Reddy; Sidagam, Naresh

2015-01-01

Background Malarial incidence, severity, dynamics and distribution of malaria are strongly determined by climatic factors, i.e., temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. The objectives of the current study were to analyse and model the relationships among climate, vector and malaria disease in district of Visakhapatnam, India to understand malaria transmission mechanism (MTM). Methodology Epidemiological, vector and climate data were analysed for the years 2005 to 2011 in Visakhapatnam to understand the magnitude, trends and seasonal patterns of the malarial disease. Statistical software MINITAB ver. 14 was used for performing correlation, linear and multiple regression analysis. Results/Findings Perennial malaria disease incidence and mosquito population was observed in the district of Visakhapatnam with peaks in seasons. All the climatic variables have a significant influence on disease incidence as well as on mosquito populations. Correlation coefficient analysis, seasonal index and seasonal analysis demonstrated significant relationships among climatic factors, mosquito population and malaria disease incidence in the district of Visakhapatnam, India. Multiple regression and ARIMA (I) models are best suited models for modeling and prediction of disease incidences and mosquito population. Predicted values of average temperature, mosquito population and malarial cases increased along with the year. Developed MTM algorithm observed a major MTM cycle following the June to August rains and occurring between June to September and minor MTM cycles following March to April rains and occurring between March to April in the district of Visakhapatnam. Fluctuations in climatic factors favored an increase in mosquito populations and thereby increasing the number of malarial cases. Rainfall, temperatures (20°C to 33°C) and humidity (66% to 81%) maintained a warmer, wetter climate for mosquito growth, parasite development and malaria transmission. Conclusions/Significance Changes in climatic factors influence malaria directly by modifying the behaviour and geographical distribution of vectors and by changing the length of the life cycle of the parasite. PMID:26110279

Signal of Acceleration and Physical Mechanism of Water Cycle in Xinjiang, China

PubMed Central

Feng, Guo-Lin; Wu, Yong-Ping

2016-01-01

Global warming accelerates water cycle with features of regional difference. However, little is known about the physical mechanism behind the phenomenon. To reveal the links between water cycle and climatic environment, we analyzed the changes of water cycle elements and their relationships with climatic and environmental factors. We found that when global warming was significant during the period of 1986-2003, the precipitation in Tarim mountains as well as Xinjiang increased rapidly except for Tarim plains, which indicated that there existed a signal of acceleration for water cycle in Xinjiang. The speed of water cycle is mainly affected by altitude, latitude, longitude, slope direction, and the most fundamental element is temperature. Moreover, according to Clausius-Kela Bai Lung relation, we found that the climate change induced the increase of temperature and accelerated the local water cycle only for the wet places. Our results provide a possible physical mechanisms of water cycle and thus well link the climate change to water circulation. PMID:27907078

Signal of Acceleration and Physical Mechanism of Water Cycle in Xinjiang, China.

PubMed

Feng, Guo-Lin; Wu, Yong-Ping

2016-01-01

Global warming accelerates water cycle with features of regional difference. However, little is known about the physical mechanism behind the phenomenon. To reveal the links between water cycle and climatic environment, we analyzed the changes of water cycle elements and their relationships with climatic and environmental factors. We found that when global warming was significant during the period of 1986-2003, the precipitation in Tarim mountains as well as Xinjiang increased rapidly except for Tarim plains, which indicated that there existed a signal of acceleration for water cycle in Xinjiang. The speed of water cycle is mainly affected by altitude, latitude, longitude, slope direction, and the most fundamental element is temperature. Moreover, according to Clausius-Kela Bai Lung relation, we found that the climate change induced the increase of temperature and accelerated the local water cycle only for the wet places. Our results provide a possible physical mechanisms of water cycle and thus well link the climate change to water circulation.

Evaluation of surface water budget and assessment the global water cycle for the IPCC AR4 A1B scenario simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baek, H.; Park, E.; Kwon, W.

2009-12-01

Water balance calculations are becoming increasingly important for earth-system studies, because humans require water for their survival. Especially, the relationship between climate change and freshwater resources is of primary concern to human society and also has implications for all living species. The goal of this study is to assess the closure and annual variations of the water cycles based on the multi-model ensemble approach. In this study, the projection results of the previous works focusing on global and six sub-regions are updated using sixteen atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. Before projecting future climate, model performances are evaluated on the simulation of the present-day climate. From the result, we construct and use mainly multi-model ensembles (MMEs), which is referred to as MME9, defined from nine selected AOGCMs of higher performance. Analyzed variables include annual and seasonal precipitation, evaporation, and runoff. The overall projection results from MME9 show that most regions will experience warmer and wetter climate at the end of 21st century. The evaporation shows a very similar trend to precipitation, but not in the runoff projection. The internal and inter-model variabilities are larger in the runoff than both precipitation and evaporation. Moreover, the runoff is notably reduced in Europe at the end of 21st century.

Simulation of climate, ice sheets and CO2 evolution during the last four glacial cycles with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganopolski, Andrey; Brovkin, Victor

2017-11-01

In spite of significant progress in paleoclimate reconstructions and modelling of different aspects of the past glacial cycles, the mechanisms which transform regional and seasonal variations in solar insolation into long-term and global-scale glacial-interglacial cycles are still not fully understood - in particular, in relation to CO2 variability. Here using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 we performed simulations of the co-evolution of climate, ice sheets, and carbon cycle over the last 400 000 years using the orbital forcing as the only external forcing. The model simulates temporal dynamics of CO2, global ice volume, and other climate system characteristics in good agreement with paleoclimate reconstructions. These results provide strong support for the idea that long and strongly asymmetric glacial cycles of the late Quaternary represent a direct but strongly nonlinear response of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets to orbital forcing. This response is strongly amplified and globalised by the carbon cycle feedbacks. Using simulations performed with the model in different configurations, we also analyse the role of individual processes and sensitivity to the choice of model parameters. While many features of simulated glacial cycles are rather robust, some details of CO2 evolution, especially during glacial terminations, are sensitive to the choice of model parameters. Specifically, we found two major regimes of CO2 changes during terminations: in the first one, when the recovery of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) occurs only at the end of the termination, a pronounced overshoot in CO2 concentration occurs at the beginning of the interglacial and CO2 remains almost constant during the interglacial or even declines towards the end, resembling Eemian CO2 dynamics. However, if the recovery of the AMOC occurs in the middle of the glacial termination, CO2 concentration continues to rise during the interglacial, similar to the Holocene. We also discuss the potential contribution of the brine rejection mechanism for the CO2 and carbon isotopes in the atmosphere and the ocean during the past glacial termination.

Evaluating CMIP5 Simulations of Historical Continental Climate with Koeppen Bioclimatic Metrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, T. J.; Bonfils, C.

2013-12-01

The classic Koeppen bioclimatic classification scheme associates generic vegetation types (e.g. grassland, tundra, broadleaf or evergreen forests, etc.) with regional climate zones defined by their annual cycles of continental temperature (T) and precipitation (P), considered together. The locations or areas of Koeppen vegetation types derived from observational data thus can provide concise metrical standards for simultaneously evaluating climate simulations of T and P in naturally defined regions. The CMIP5 models' collective ability to correctly represent two variables that are critically important for living organisms at regional scales is therefore central to this evaluation. For this study, 14 Koeppen vegetation types are derived from annual-cycle climatologies of T and P in some 3 dozen CMIP5 simulations of the 1980-1999 period. Metrics for evaluating the ability of the CMIP5 models to simulate the correct locations and areas of each vegetation type, as well as measures of overall model performance, also are developed. It is found that the CMIP5 models are generally most deficient in simulating: 1) climates of drier Koeppen zones (e.g. desert, savanna, grassland, steppe vegetation types) located in the southwestern U.S. and Mexico, eastern Europe, southern Africa, and central Australia; 2) climates of regions such as central Asia and western South America where topography plays a key role. Details of regional T or P biases in selected simulations that exemplify general model performance problems also will be presented. Acknowledgments: This work was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science and was performed at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. Map of Koeppen vegetation types derived from observed T and P.

The modulated annual cycle: an alternative reference frame for climate anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Zhaohua; Schneider, Edwin K.; Kirtman, Ben P.; Sarachik, E. S.; Huang, Norden E.; Tucker, Compton J.

2008-12-01

In climate science, an anomaly is the deviation of a quantity from its annual cycle. There are many ways to define annual cycle. Traditionally, this annual cycle is taken to be an exact repeat of itself year after year. This stationary annual cycle may not reflect well the intrinsic nonlinearity of the climate system, especially under external forcing. In this paper, we re-examine the reference frame for anomalies by re-examining the annual cycle. We propose an alternative reference frame for climate anomalies, the modulated annual cycle (MAC) that allows the annual cycle to change from year to year, for defining anomalies. In order for this alternative reference frame to be useful, we need to be able to define the instantaneous annual cycle: we therefore also introduce a new method to extract the MAC from climatic data. In the presence of a MAC, modulated in both amplitude and frequency, we can then define an alternative version of an anomaly, this time with respect to the instantaneous MAC rather than a permanent and unchanging AC. Based on this alternative definition of anomalies, we re-examine some familiar physical processes: in particular SST re-emergence and ENSO phase locking to the annual cycle. We find that the re-emergence mechanism may be alternatively interpreted as an explanation of the change of the annual cycle instead of an explanation of the interannual to interdecadal persistence of SST anomalies. We also find that the ENSO phase locking can largely be attributed to the residual annual cycle (the difference of the MAC and the corresponding traditional annual cycle) contained in the traditional anomaly, and, therefore, can be alternatively interpreted as a part of the annual cycle phase locked to the annual cycle itself. In addition to the examples of reinterpretation of physics of well known climate phenomena, we also present an example of the implications of using a MAC against which to define anomalies. We show that using MAC as a reference framework for anomaly can bypass the difficulty brought by concepts such as “decadal variability of summer (or winter) climate” for understanding the low-frequency variability of the climate system. The concept of an amplitude and frequency modulated annual cycle, a method to extract it, and its implications for the interpretation of physical processes, all may contribute potentially to a more consistent and fruitful way of examining past and future climate variability and change.

Climate extremes and the carbon cycle.

PubMed

Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Ciais, Philippe; Frank, Dorothea; Mahecha, Miguel D; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Zscheischler, Jakob; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Frank, David C; Papale, Dario; Rammig, Anja; Smith, Pete; Thonicke, Kirsten; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin

2013-08-15

The terrestrial biosphere is a key component of the global carbon cycle and its carbon balance is strongly influenced by climate. Continuing environmental changes are thought to increase global terrestrial carbon uptake. But evidence is mounting that climate extremes such as droughts or storms can lead to a decrease in regional ecosystem carbon stocks and therefore have the potential to negate an expected increase in terrestrial carbon uptake. Here we explore the mechanisms and impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle, and propose a pathway to improve our understanding of present and future impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon budget.

University students' cognitive performance under temperature cycles induced by direct load control events.

PubMed

Zhang, F; de Dear, R

2017-01-01

As one of the most common strategies for managing peak electricity demand, direct load control (DLC) of air-conditioners involves cycling the compressors on and off at predetermined intervals. In university lecture theaters, the implementation of DLC induces temperature cycles which might compromise university students' learning performance. In these experiments, university students' learning performance, represented by four cognitive skills of memory, concentration, reasoning, and planning, was closely monitored under DLC-induced temperature cycles and control conditions simulated in a climate chamber. In Experiment 1 with a cooling set point temperature of 22°C, subjects' cognitive performance was relatively stable or even slightly promoted by the mild heat intensity and short heat exposure resulting from temperature cycles; in Experiment 2 with a cooling set point of 24°C, subjects' reasoning and planning performance observed a trend of decline at the higher heat intensity and longer heat exposure. Results confirm that simpler cognitive tasks are less susceptible to temperature effects than more complex tasks; the effect of thermal variations on cognitive performance follows an extended-U relationship with performance being relatively stable across a range of temperatures. DLC appears to be feasible in university lecture theaters if DLC algorithms are implemented judiciously. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Aggregate Freezing-Thawing Performance Using the Iowa Pore Index : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-10-01

In cold climates, the use of non-durable aggregate leads to premature pavement deterioration due to damage caused by freezing-thawing cycles. Differentiating durable and non-durable aggregates is a crucial yet challenging task. The frost durability o...

Development of a finite element based thermal cracking performance prediction model.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-09-15

Low-temperature cracking of hot-mix asphalt (HMA) pavements continues to be a leading cause of : premature pavement deterioration in regions of cold climate and/or where significant thermal cycling : occurs. Recent advances in fracture testing and mo...

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts

PubMed Central

Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

2015-01-01

Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon–climate feedbacks. PMID:25752680

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts.

PubMed

Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

2015-08-01

Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon-climate feedbacks. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

"Days of future passed" - climate change and carbon cycle history (Jean Baptiste Lamarck Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weissert, Helmut

2013-04-01

With the beginning of the fossil fuel age in the 19th century mankind has become an important geological agent on a global scale. For the first time in human history action of man has an impact on global biogeochemical cycles. Increasing CO2 concentrations will result in a perturbation of global carbon cycling coupled with climate change. Investigations of past changes in carbon cycling and in climate will improve our predictions of future climate. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations will drive climate into a mode of operation, which may resemble climate conditions in the deep geological past. Pliocene climate will give insight into 400ppm world with higher global sea level than today. Doubling of pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 levels will shift the climate system into a state resembling greenhouse climate in the Early Cenozoic or even in the Cretaceous. Carbon isotope geochemistry serves as tool for tracing the pathway of the carbon cycle through geological time. Globally registered negative C-isotope anomalies in the C-isotope record are interpreted as signatures of rapid addition (103 to a few 104 years) of CO2 to the ocean-atmosphere system. Positive C-isotope excursions following negative spikes record the slow post-perturbation recovery of the biosphere at time scales of 105 to 106 years. Duration of C-cycle perturbations in earth history cannot be directly compared with rapid perturbation characterizing the Anthropocene. However, the investigation of greenhouse pulses in the geological past provides insight into different climate states, it allows to identify tipping points in past climate systems and it offers the opportunity to learn about response reactions of the biosphere to rapid changes in global carbon cycling. Sudden injection of massive amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is recorded in C-isotope record of the Early Cretaceous. The Aptian carbon cycle perturbation triggered changes in temperature and in global hydrological cycling. Changes in physical and chemical oceanography are reflected in widespread black shale deposition ("Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a"), in carbonate platform drowning and in biocalcification crises. "Days of future passed" (Moody Blues, 1967) reminds us that the past provides essential information needed for decisions to be made in the interest of mankind's future.

Long-term climate change and the geochemical cycle of carbon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marshall, Hal G.; Walker, James C. G.; Kuhn, William R.

1988-01-01

The response of the coupled climate-geochemical system to changes in paleography is examined in terms of the biogeochemical carbon cycle. The simple, zonally averaged energy balance climate model combined with a geochemical carbon cycle model, which was developed to study climate changes, is described. The effects of latitudinal distributions of the continents on the carbon cycle are investigated, and the global silicate weathering rate as a function of latitude is measured. It is observed that a concentration of land area at high altitudes results in a high CO2 partial pressure and a high global average temperature, and for land at low latitudes a cold globe and ice are detected. It is noted that the CO2 greenhouse feedback effect is potentially strong and has a stabilizing effect on the climate system.

Effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycling: interactions and feedbacks.

PubMed

Zepp, R G; Erickson, D J; Paul, N D; Sulzberger, B

2011-02-01

Solar UV radiation, climate and other drivers of global change are undergoing significant changes and models forecast that these changes will continue for the remainder of this century. Here we assess the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles and the interactions of these effects with climate change, including feedbacks on climate. Such interactions occur in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. While there is significant uncertainty in the quantification of these effects, they could accelerate the rate of atmospheric CO(2) increase and subsequent climate change beyond current predictions. The effects of predicted changes in climate and solar UV radiation on carbon cycling in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are expected to vary significantly between regions. The balance of positive and negative effects on terrestrial carbon cycling remains uncertain, but the interactions between UV radiation and climate change are likely to contribute to decreasing sink strength in many oceanic regions. Interactions between climate and solar UV radiation will affect cycling of elements other than carbon, and so will influence the concentration of greenhouse and ozone-depleting gases. For example, increases in oxygen-deficient regions of the ocean caused by climate change are projected to enhance the emissions of nitrous oxide, an important greenhouse and ozone-depleting gas. Future changes in UV-induced transformations of aquatic and terrestrial contaminants could have both beneficial and adverse effects. Taken in total, it is clear that the future changes in UV radiation coupled with human-caused global change will have large impacts on biogeochemical cycles at local, regional and global scales.

On the linkages between the global carbon-nitrogen-phosphorus cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Katsumasa; Mackenzie, Fred; Bouchez, Julien; Knutti, Reto

2013-04-01

State-of-the-art earth system models used for long-term climate projections are becoming ever more complex in terms of not only spatial resolution but also the number of processes. Biogeochemical processes are beginning to be incorporated into these models. The motivation of this study is to quantify how climate projections are influenced by biogeochemical feedbacks. In the climate modeling community, it is virtually accepted that climate-Carbon (C) cycle feedbacks accelerate the future warming (Cox et al. 2000; Friedlingstein et al. 2006). It has been demonstrated that the Nitrogen (N) cycle suppresses climate-C cycle feedbacks (Thornton et al. 2009). On the contrary, biogeochemical studies show that the coupled C-N-Phosphorus (P) cycles are intimately interlinked via biosphere and the N-P cycles amplify C cycle feedbacks (Ver et al. 1999). The question as to whether the N-P cycles enhance or attenuate C cycle feedbacks is debated and has a significant implication for projections of future climate. We delve into this problem by using the Terrestrial-Ocean-aTmosphere Ecosystem Model 3 (TOTEM3), a globally-aggregated C-N-P cycle box model. TOTEM3 is a process-based model that describes the biogeochemical reactions and physical transports involving these elements in the four domains of the Earth system: land, atmosphere, coastal ocean, and open ocean. TOTEM3 is a successor of earlier TOTEM models (Ver et al. 1999; Mackenzie et al. 2011). In our presentation, we provide an overview of fundamental features and behaviors of TOTEM3 such as the mass balance at the steady state and the relaxation time scales to various types of perturbation. We also show preliminary results to investigate how the N-P cycles influence the behavior of the C cycle. References Cox PM, Betts RA, Jones CD, Spall SA, Totterdell IJ (2000) Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Nature, 408, 184-187. Friedlingstein P, Cox P, Betts R, Bopp L, von Bloh W, Brovkin V, Cadule P, Doney S, Eby M, Fung I, Bala G, John J, Jones C, Joos F, Kato T, Kawamiya M, Knorr W, Lindsay K, Matthews HD, Raddatz T, Rayner P, Reick C, Roeckner E, Schnitzler KG, Schnur R, Strassmann K, Weaver AJ, Yoshikawa C, Zeng N (2006) Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis: Results from the C4MIP Model Intercomparison. Journal of Climate, 19, 3337-3353. Mackenzie FT, De Carlo EH, Lerman A (2011) Coupled C, N, P, and O biogeochemical cycling at the land-ocean interface. In: Wolanski E, McLusky DS (eds) Treatise on Estuarine and Coastal Science, vol 5. Academic Press, Waltham, pp 317-342. Thornton PE, Doney SC, Lindsay K, Moore JK, Mahowald N, Randerson JT, Fung I, Lamarque JF, Feddema JJ, Lee YH (2009) Carbon-nitrogen interactions regulate climate-carbon cycle feedbacks: results from an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Biogeosciences, 6, 2099-2120. Ver LMB, Mackenzie FT, Lerman A (1999) Biogeochemical responses of the carbon cycle to natural and human perturbations: Past, present, and future. American Journal of Science, 299, 762-801.

How does complex terrain influence responses of carbon and water cycle processes to climate variability and climate change?

EPA Science Inventory

We are pursuing the ambitious goal of understanding how complex terrain influences the responses of carbon and water cycle processes to climate variability and climate change. Our studies take place in H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, an LTER (Long Term Ecological Research) site...

Climate change impairs processes of soil and plant N cycling in European beech forests on marginal soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tejedor, Javier; Gasche, Rainer; Gschwendtner, Silvia; Leberecht, Martin; Bimüller, Carolin; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid; Pole, Andrea; Schloter, Michael; Rennenberg, Heinz; Simon, Judy; Hanewinkel, Marc; Baltensweiler, Andri; Bilela, Silvija; Dannenmann, Michael

2014-05-01

Beech forests of Central Europe are covering large areas with marginal calcareous soils, but provide important ecological services and represent a significant economical value. The vulnerability of these ecosystems to projected climate conditions (higher temperatures, increase of extreme drought and precipitation events) is currently unclear. Here we present comprehensive data on the influence of climate change conditions on ecosystem performance, considering soil nitrogen biogeochemistry, soil microbiology, mycorrhiza ecology and plant physiology. We simultaneously quantified major plant and soil gross N turnover processes by homogenous triple 15N isotope labeling of intact beech natural regeneration-soil-microbe systems. This isotope approach was combined with a space for time climate change experiment, i.e. we transferred intact beech seedling-soil-microbe mesocosms from a slope with N-exposure (representing present day climate conditions) to a slope with S exposure (serving as a warmer and drier model climate for future conditions). Transfers within N slope served as controls. After an equilibration period of 1 year, three isotope labeling/harvest cycles were performed. Reduced soil water content resulted in a persistent decline of ammonia oxidizing bacteria in soil (AOB). Consequently, we found a massive five-fold reduction of gross nitrification in the climate change treatment and a subsequent strong decline in soil nitrate concentrations as well as nitrate uptake by microorganisms and beech. Because nitrate was the major nutrient for beech in this forest type with little importance of ammonium and amino acids, this resulted in a strongly reduced performance of beech natural regeneration with reduced N content, N metabolite concentrations and plant biomass. These findings provided an explanation for a large-scale decline of distribution of beech forests on calcareous soils in Europe by almost 80% until 2080 predicted by statistical modeling. Hence, we question the sustainability of such forests under projected climate change conditions, but also discuss potential mitigation and adaptation options. Important comment: The topic of this abstract is subject to a press embargo, because it is in review at a Nature Journal

NASA's Earth Science Enterprise's Water and Energy Cycle Focus Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Entin, J. K.

2004-05-01

Understanding the Water and Energy cycles is critical towards improving our understanding of climate change, as well as the consequences of climate change. In addition, using results from water and energy cycle research can help improve water resource management, agricultural efficiency, disaster management, and public health. To address this, NASA's Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) has an end-to-end Water and Energy Cycle Focus Area, which along with the ESE's other five focus areas will help NASA answer key Earth Science questions. In an effort to build upon the pre-existing discipline programs, which focus on precipitation, radiation sciences, and terrestrial hydrology, NASA has begun planning efforts to create an implementation plan for integrative research to improve our understanding of the water and energy cycles. The basics of this planning process and the core aspects of the implementation plan will be discussed. Roadmaps will also be used to show the future direction for the entire focus area. Included in the discussion, will be aspects of the end-to-end nature of the Focus Area that encompass current and potential actives to extend research results to operational agencies to enable improved performance of policy and management decision support systems.

Full annual cycle climate change vulnerability assessment for migratory birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Culp, Leah A.; Cohen, Emily B.; Scarpignato, Amy L.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Marra, Peter P.

2017-01-01

Climate change is a serious challenge faced by all plant and animal species. Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are one method to assess risk and are increasingly used as a tool to inform management plans. Migratory animals move across regions and continents during their annual cycles where they are exposed to diverse climatic conditions. Climate change during any period and in any region of the annual cycle could influence survival, reproduction, or the cues used to optimize timing of migration. Therefore, CCVAs for migratory animals best estimate risk when they include climate exposure during the entire annual cycle. We developed a CCVA incorporating the full annual cycle and applied this method to 46 species of migratory birds breeding in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes (UMGL) region of the United States. Our methodology included background risk, climate change exposure × climate sensitivity, adaptive capacity to climate change, and indirect effects of climate change. We compiled information about migratory connectivity between breeding and stationary non-breeding areas using literature searches and U.S. Geological Survey banding and re-encounter data. Climate change exposure (temperature and moisture) was assessed using UMGL breeding season climate and winter climate from non-breeding regions for each species. Where possible, we focused on non-breeding regions known to be linked through migratory connectivity. We ranked 10 species as highly vulnerable to climate change and two as having low vulnerability. The remaining 34 species were ranked as moderately vulnerable. In general, including non-breeding data provided more robust results that were highly individualistic by species. Two species were found to be highly vulnerable throughout their annual cycle. Projected drying will have the greatest effect during the non-breeding season for species overwintering in Mexico and the Caribbean. Projected temperature increases will have the greatest effect during the breeding season in UMGL as well as during the non-breeding season for species overwintering in South America. We provide a model for adaptive management of migratory animals in the face of projected climate change, including identification of priority species, research needs, and regions within non-breeding ranges for potential conservation partnerships.

Astronomical cycle origin of bedded chert: A middle Triassic bedded chert sequence, Inuyama, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikeda, Masayuki; Tada, Ryuji; Sakuma, Hironobu

2010-09-01

Astronomical forcing is one of the main drivers of climate change, and astronomical cyclicity recorded in sediments provides a clue to understand the dynamics of the global climate system. Bedded cherts consist of rhythmic alternations of chert and shale beds. Although previous studies have hypothesized that the origin of bedded chert is related to astronomical cycles (e.g. Fischer, 1976; Hori et al., 1993), conclusive proof remains elusive. To explore this possibility, we established a continuous, high-resolution lithostratigraphy of middle Triassic bedded chert in Central Japan. The average duration of each chert-shale couplet is 20 kyr, similar to that of the precession cycle. Spectral analysis of a bed number series of thickness variations in chert beds was performed assuming that each chert-shale couplet represents a 20-kyr precession cycle. The results reveal cycles involving approximately 200, 20, 5, and 2-3 beds, corresponding to periodicities of approximately 4000, 400, 100, and 40-60 kyr, respectively. By further assuming that the 20-bed cycle represents a 405-kyr eccentricity cycle of constant and stable periodicity, we converted the bed number series to a time series. Spectral analysis of the time series revealed distinct periodicities of 3600, 117, 97, and 38 kyr, in addition to 405 kyr. Besides 3600 kyr, these periodicities agree well with the 120, 95, and 37 kyr periodicities for eccentricity cycles and the obliquity cycle during the Triassic. Moreover, we detected amplitude modulation of the approximately 100-kyr cycle of thickness variations in chert beds with a 405-kyr periodicity, which may correspond to amplitude modulation of 100-kyr climatic precession cycle with the 405-kyr periodicity. The approximately 3600-kyr periodicity described above and 1800-kyr periodicity manifested as the amplitude modulation of the 405-kyr cycle are correlated to present-day long-term eccentricity cycles of 2400 and 4800 kyr evolved by chaotic behavior of solar planets. Collectively, these similarities in the periodicities of dominant cycles, their hierarchy, and the nature of amplitude modulation of cycles in chert bed thickness with those of astronomical cycles strongly support the hypothesis that the sedimentary rhythm of bedded chert is paced by astronomical cycles, thereby indicating the potential of bedded chert as a template for a Mesozoic cyclostratigraphy.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Bunn, Andrew G.; Thomson, Allison M.

High-latitude northern ecosystems are experiencing rapid climate changes, and represent a large potential climate feedback because of their high soil carbon densities and shifting disturbance regimes. A significant carbon flow from these ecosystems is soil respiration (RS, the flow of carbon dioxide, generated by plant roots and soil fauna, from the soil surface to atmosphere), and any change in the high-latitude carbon cycle might thus be reflected in RS observed in the field. This study used two variants of a machine-learning algorithm and least squares regression to examine how remotely-sensed canopy greenness (NDVI), climate, and other variables are coupled tomore » annual RS based on 105 observations from 64 circumpolar sites in a global database. The addition of NDVI roughly doubled model performance, with the best-performing models explaining ~62% of observed RS variability« less

Promoting Climate Literacy and Conceptual Understanding among In-service Secondary Science Teachers requires an Epistemological Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, D.; Forbes, C.; Roehrig, G.; Chandler, M. A.

2017-12-01

Promoting climate literacy among in-service science teachers necessitates an understanding of fundamental concepts about the Earth's climate System (USGCRP, 2009). Very few teachers report having any formal instruction in climate science (Plutzer et al., 2016), therefore, rather simple conceptions of climate systems and their variability exist, which has implications for students' science learning (Francies et al., 1993; Libarkin, 2005; Rebich, 2005). This study uses the inferences from a NASA Innovations in Climate Education (NICE) teacher professional development program (CYCLES) to establish the necessity for developing an epistemological perspective among teachers. In CYCLES, 19 middle and high school (male=8, female=11) teachers were assessed for their understanding of global climate change (GCC). A qualitative analysis of their concept maps and an alignment of their conceptions with the Essential Principles of Climate Literacy (NOAA, 2009) demonstrated that participants emphasized on EPCL 1, 3, 6, 7 focusing on the Earth system, atmospheric, social and ecological impacts of GCC. However, EPCL 4 (variability in climate) and 5 (data-based observations and modeling) were least represented and emphasized upon. Thus, participants' descriptions about global climatic patterns were often factual rather than incorporating causation (why the temperatures are increasing) and/or correlation (describing what other factors might influence global temperatures). Therefore, engaging with epistemic dimensions of climate science to understand the processes, tools, and norms through which climate scientists study the Earth's climate system (Huxter et al., 2013) is critical for developing an in-depth conceptual understanding of climate. CLiMES (Climate Modeling and Epistemology of Science), a NSF initiative proposes to use EzGCM (EzGlobal Climate Model) to engage students and teachers in designing and running simulations, performing data processing activities, and analyzing computational models to develop their own evidence-based claims about the Earth's climate system. We describe how epistemological investigations can be conducted using EzGCM to bring the scientific process and authentic climate science practice to middle and high school classrooms.

Nonlinear Insolation Forcing: A Physical Mechanism for Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, H. S.

1998-01-01

This paper focuses on recent advances in the understanding of nonlinear insolation forcing for climate change. The amplitude-frequency resonances in the insolation variations induced by the Earth's changing obliquity are emergent and may provide a physical mechanism to drive the glaciation cycles. To establish the criterion that nonlinear insolation forcing is responsible for major climate changes, the cooperative phenomena between the frequency and amplitude of the insolation are defined as insolation pulsation. Coupling of the insolation frequency and amplitude variations has established an especially new and interesting series of insolation pulses. These pulses would modulate the insolation in such a way that the mode of insolation variations could be locked to generate the 100-kyr ice age cycle which is a long-time geophysical puzzle. The nonlinear behavior of insolation forcing is tested by energy balance and ice sheet climate models and the physical mechanism behind this forcing is explained in terms of pulse duration in the incoming solar radiation. Calculations of the solar energy flux at the top of the atmosphere show that the duration of the negative and positive insolation pulses is about 2 thousand years which is long enough to prolong glaciation into deep ice ages and cause rapid melting of large ice sheets in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. We have performed numerical simulations of climate response to nonlinear insolation forcing for the past 2 million years. Our calculated results of temperature fluctuations are in good agreement with the climate cycles as seen in the terrestrial biogenic silica (BDP-96-2) data as well as in the marine oxygen isotope (delta(sup 18)O) records.

Life-cycle assessment of a biogas power plant with application of different climate metrics and inclusion of near-term climate forcers.

PubMed

Iordan, Cristina; Lausselet, Carine; Cherubini, Francesco

2016-12-15

This study assesses the environmental sustainability of electricity production through anaerobic co-digestion of sewage sludge and organic wastes. The analysis relies on primary data from a biogas plant, supplemented with data from the literature. The climate impact assessment includes emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) like ozone precursors and aerosols, which are frequently overlooked in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), and the application of a suite of different emission metrics, based on either the Global Warming Potential (GWP) or the Global Temperature change Potential (GTP) with a time horizon (TH) of 20 or 100 years. The environmental performances of the biogas system are benchmarked against a conventional fossil fuel system. We also investigate the sensitivity of the system to critical parameters and provide five different scenarios in a sensitivity analysis. Hotspots are the management of the digestate (mainly due to the open storage) and methane (CH 4 ) losses during the anaerobic co-digestion. Results are sensitive to the type of climate metric used. The impacts range from 52 up to 116 g CO 2 -eq./MJ electricity when using GTP100 and GWP20, respectively. This difference is mostly due to the varying contribution from CH 4 emissions. The influence of NTCFs is about 6% for GWP100 (worst case), and grows up to 31% for GWP20 (best case). The biogas system has a lower performance than the fossil reference system for the acidification and particulate matter formation potentials. We argue for an active consideration of NTCFs in LCA and a critical reflection over the climate metrics to be used, as these aspects can significantly affect the final outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Physical Processes Controlling Earth's Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Genio, Anthony Del

2013-01-01

As background for consideration of the climates of the other terrestrial planets in our solar system and the potential habitability of rocky exoplanets, we discuss the basic physics that controls the Earths present climate, with particular emphasis on the energy and water cycles. We define several dimensionless parameters relevant to characterizing a planets general circulation, climate and hydrological cycle. We also consider issues associated with the use of past climate variations as indicators of future anthropogenically forced climate change, and recent advances in understanding projections of future climate that might have implications for Earth-like exoplanets.

Climate and landscape influence on indicators of lake carbon cycling through spatial patterns in dissolved organic carbon.

PubMed

Lapierre, Jean-Francois; Seekell, David A; Del Giorgio, Paul A

2015-12-01

Freshwater ecosystems are strongly influenced by both climate and the surrounding landscape, yet the specific pathways connecting climatic and landscape drivers to the functioning of lake ecosystems are poorly understood. Here, we hypothesize that the links that exist between spatial patterns in climate and landscape properties and the spatial variation in lake carbon (C) cycling at regional scales are at least partly mediated by the movement of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the aquatic component of the landscape. We assembled a set of indicators of lake C cycling (bacterial respiration and production, chlorophyll a, production to respiration ratio, and partial pressure of CO2 ), DOC concentration and composition, and landscape and climate characteristics for 239 temperate and boreal lakes spanning large environmental and geographic gradients across seven regions. There were various degrees of spatial structure in climate and landscape features that were coherent with the regionally structured patterns observed in lake DOC and indicators of C cycling. These different regions aligned well, albeit nonlinearly along a mean annual temperature gradient; whereas there was a considerable statistical effect of climate and landscape properties on lake C cycling, the direct effect was small and the overall effect was almost entirely overlapping with that of DOC concentration and composition. Our results suggest that key climatic and landscape signals are conveyed to lakes in part via the movement of terrestrial DOC to lakes and that DOC acts both as a driver of lake C cycling and as a proxy for other external signals. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

FOREST ECOLOGY. Pervasive drought legacies in forest ecosystems and their implications for carbon cycle models.

PubMed

Anderegg, W R L; Schwalm, C; Biondi, F; Camarero, J J; Koch, G; Litvak, M; Ogle, K; Shaw, J D; Shevliakova, E; Williams, A P; Wolf, A; Ziaco, E; Pacala, S

2015-07-31

The impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems are poorly understood but important for predicting carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change. Coupled climate-carbon cycle models typically assume that vegetation recovery from extreme drought is immediate and complete, which conflicts with the understanding of basic plant physiology. We examined the recovery of stem growth in trees after severe drought at 1338 forest sites across the globe, comprising 49,339 site-years, and compared the results with simulated recovery in climate-vegetation models. We found pervasive and substantial "legacy effects" of reduced growth and incomplete recovery for 1 to 4 years after severe drought. Legacy effects were most prevalent in dry ecosystems, among Pinaceae, and among species with low hydraulic safety margins. In contrast, limited or no legacy effects after drought were simulated by current climate-vegetation models. Our results highlight hysteresis in ecosystem-level carbon cycling and delayed recovery from climate extremes. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Impact of aviation non-CO₂ combustion effects on the environmental feasibility of alternative jet fuels.

PubMed

Stratton, Russell W; Wolfe, Philip J; Hileman, James I

2011-12-15

Alternative fuels represent a potential option for reducing the climate impacts of the aviation sector. The climate impacts of alternatives fuel are traditionally considered as a ratio of life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to those of the displaced petroleum product; however, this ignores the climate impacts of the non-CO(2) combustion effects from aircraft in the upper atmosphere. The results of this study show that including non-CO(2) combustion emissions and effects in the life cycle of a Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene (SPK) fuel can lead to a decrease in the relative merit of the SPK fuel relative to conventional jet fuel. For example, an SPK fuel option with zero life cycle GHG emissions would offer a 100% reduction in GHG emissions but only a 48% reduction in actual climate impact using a 100-year time window and the nominal climate modeling assumption set outlined herein. Therefore, climate change mitigation policies for aviation that rely exclusively on relative well-to-wake life cycle GHG emissions as a proxy for aviation climate impact may overestimate the benefit of alternative fuel use on the global climate system.

Drivers of multi-century trends in the atmospheric CO2 mean annual cycle in a prognostic ESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liptak, Jessica; Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Lindsay, Keith

2017-03-01

The amplitude of the mean annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 is a diagnostic of seasonal surface-atmosphere carbon exchange. Atmospheric observations show that this quantity has increased over most of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics during the last 3 decades, likely from a combination of enhanced atmospheric CO2, climate change, and anthropogenic land use change. Accurate climate prediction requires accounting for long-term interactions between the environment and carbon cycling; thus, analysis of the evolution of the mean annual cycle in a fully prognostic Earth system model may provide insight into the multi-decadal influence of environmental change on the carbon cycle. We analyzed the evolution of the mean annual cycle in atmospheric CO2 simulated by the Community Earth System Model (CESM) from 1950 to 2300 under three scenarios designed to separate the effects of climate change, atmospheric CO2 fertilization, and land use change. The NH CO2 seasonal amplitude increase in the CESM mainly reflected enhanced primary productivity during the growing season due to climate change and the combined effects of CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition over the mid- and high latitudes. However, the simulations revealed shifts in key climate drivers of the atmospheric CO2 seasonality that were not apparent before 2100. CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition in boreal and temperate ecosystems were the largest contributors to mean annual cycle amplification over the midlatitudes for the duration of the simulation (1950-2300). Climate change from boreal ecosystems was the main driver of Arctic CO2 annual cycle amplification between 1950 and 2100, but CO2 fertilization had a stronger effect on the Arctic CO2 annual cycle amplitude during 2100-2300. Prior to 2100, the NH CO2 annual cycle amplitude increased in conjunction with an increase in the NH land carbon sink. However, these trends decoupled after 2100, underscoring that an increasing atmospheric CO2 annual cycle amplitude does not necessarily imply a strengthened terrestrial carbon sink.

Influence of Geographic Factors on the Life Cycle Climate Change Impacts of Renewable Energy Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fortier, M. O. P.

2017-12-01

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a valuable tool to measure the cradle-to-grave climate change impacts of the sustainable energy systems that are planned to replace conventional fossil energy-based systems. The recent inclusion of geographic specificity in bioenergy LCAs has shown that the relative sustainability of these energy sources is often dependent on geographic factors, such as the climate change impact of changing the land cover and local resource availability. However, this development has not yet been implemented to most LCAs of energy systems that do not have biological feedstocks, such as wind, water, and solar-based energy systems. For example, the tidal velocity where tidal rotors are installed can significantly alter the life cycle climate change impacts of electricity generated using the same technology in different locations. For LCAs of solar updraft towers, the albedo change impacts arising from changing the reflectivity of the land that would be converted can be of the same magnitude as other life cycle process climate change impacts. Improvements to determining the life cycle climate change impacts of renewable energy technologies can be made by utilizing GIS and satellite data and by conducting site-specific analyses. This practice can enhance our understanding of the life cycle environmental impacts of technologies that are aimed to reduce the impacts of our current energy systems, and it can improve the siting of new systems to optimize a reduction in climate change impacts.

Changing climatic response: a conceptual model for glacial cycles and the Mid-Pleistocene Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daruka, I.; Ditlevsen, P. D.

2014-03-01

Milankovitch's astronomical theory of glacial cycles, attributing ice age climate oscillations to orbital changes in Northern Northern-Hemisphere insolation, is challenged by the paleoclimatic record. The climatic response to the variations in insolation is far from trivial. In general the glacial cycles are highly asymmetric in time, with slow cooling from the interglacials to the glacials (inceptions) and very rapid warming from the glacials to the interglacials (terminations). We shall refer to this fast-slow dynamics as the "saw-tooth" shape of the paleoclimatic record. This is non-linearly related to the time-symmetric variations in the orbital forcing. However, the most pronounced challenge to the Milankovitch theory is the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) occurring about one million years ago. During that event, the prevailing 41 kyr glacial cycles, corresponding to the almost harmonic obliquity cycle were replaced by longer saw-tooth shaped cycles with a time scale around 100 kyr. The MPT must have been driven by internal changes in climate response, since it does not correspond to any apparent changes in the orbital forcing. In order to identify possible mechanisms causing the observed changes in glacial dynamics, it is relevant to study simplified models with the capability of generating temporal behavior similar to the observed records. We present a simple oscillator type model approach, with two variables, a temperature anomaly and an ice volume analogous, climatic memory term. The generalization of the ice albedo feedback is included in terms of an effective multiplicative coupling between this latter climatic memory term (representing the internal degrees of freedom) and the external drive. The simple model reproduces the temporal asymmetry of the late Pleistocene glacial cycles and suggests that the MPT can be explained as a regime shift, aided by climatic noise, from a period 1 frequency locking to the obliquity cycle to a period 2-3 frequency locking to the same obliquity cycle. The change in dynamics has been suggested to be a result of a slow gradual decrease in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. The presence of chaos in the (non-autonomous) glacial dynamics and a critical dependence on initial conditions raises fundamental questions about climate predictability.

pyhector: A Python interface for the simple climate model Hector

DOE PAGES

Willner, Sven N.; Hartin, Corinne; Gieseke, Robert

2017-04-01

Here, pyhector is a Python interface for the simple climate model Hector (Hartin et al. 2015) developed in C++. Simple climate models like Hector can, for instance, be used in the analysis of scenarios within integrated assessment models like GCAM1, in the emulation of complex climate models, and in uncertainty analyses. Hector is an open-source, object oriented, simple global climate carbon cycle model. Its carbon cycle consists of a one pool atmosphere, three terrestrial pools which can be broken down into finer biomes or regions, and four carbon pools in the ocean component. The terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary productionmore » and respiration fluxes. The ocean carbon cycle circulates carbon via a simplified thermohaline circulation, calculating air-sea fluxes as well as the marine carbonate system. The model input is time series of greenhouse gas emissions; as example scenarios for these the Pyhector package contains the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)2.« less

Effects of primitive photosynthesis on Earth's early climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozaki, Kazumi; Tajika, Eiichi; Hong, Peng K.; Nakagawa, Yusuke; Reinhard, Christopher T.

2018-01-01

The evolution of different forms of photosynthetic life has profoundly altered the activity level of the biosphere, radically reshaping the composition of Earth's oceans and atmosphere over time. However, the mechanistic impacts of a primitive photosynthetic biosphere on Earth's early atmospheric chemistry and climate are poorly understood. Here, we use a global redox balance model to explore the biogeochemical and climatological effects of different forms of primitive photosynthesis. We find that a hybrid ecosystem of H2-based and Fe2+-based anoxygenic photoautotrophs—organisms that perform photosynthesis without producing oxygen—gives rise to a strong nonlinear amplification of Earth's methane (CH4) cycle, and would thus have represented a critical component of Earth's early climate system before the advent of oxygenic photosynthesis. Using a Monte Carlo approach, we find that a hybrid photosynthetic biosphere widens the range of geochemical conditions that allow for warm climate states well beyond either of these metabolic processes acting in isolation. Our results imply that the Earth's early climate was governed by a novel and poorly explored set of regulatory feedbacks linking the anoxic biosphere and the coupled H, C and Fe cycles. We suggest that similar processes should be considered when assessing the potential for sustained habitability on Earth-like planets with reducing atmospheres.

Quasisecular cyclicity in the climate of the Earth's Northern Hemisphere and its possible relation to solar activity variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogurtsov, M. G.; Jungner, H.; Lindholm, M.; Helama, S.; Dergachev, V. A.

2009-12-01

Paleoclimatological reconstructions of temperature of the Earth’s Northern Hemisphere for the last thousand years have been studied using the up-to-date methods of statistical analysis. It has bee indicated that the quasisecular (a period of 60-130 years) cyclicity, which is observed in the climate of the Earth’s Northern Hemisphere, has a bimodal structure, i.e., being composed of the 60-85 and 85-130 year periodicities. The possible relation of the quasisecular climatic rhythm to the corresponding Gleissberg solar cycle has been studied using the solar activity reconstructions performed with the help of the solar paleoastrophysics methods.

Incorporating phosphorus cycling into global modeling efforts: a worthwhile, tractable endeavor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reed, Sasha C.; Yang, Xiaojuan; Thornton, Peter E.

2015-06-25

Myriad field, laboratory, and modeling studies show that nutrient availability plays a fundamental role in regulating CO 2 exchange between the Earth's biosphere and atmosphere, and in determining how carbon pools and fluxes respond to climatic change. Accordingly, global models that incorporate coupled climate-carbon cycle feedbacks made a significant advance with the introduction of a prognostic nitrogen cycle. Here we propose that incorporating phosphorus cycling represents an important next step in coupled climate-carbon cycling model development, particularly for lowland tropical forests where phosphorus availability is often presumed to limit primary production. We highlight challenges to including phosphorus in modeling effortsmore » and provide suggestions for how to move forward.« less

NASA Contributions to Improve Understanding of Extreme Events in the Global Energy and Water Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lapenta, William M.

2008-01-01

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) has established the water cycle goals of the Nation's climate change program. Accomplishing these goals will require, in part, an accurate accounting of the key reservoirs and fluxes associated with the global water and energy cycle, including their spatial and temporal variability. through integration of all necessary observations and research tools, To this end, in conjunction with NASA's Earth science research strategy, the overarching long-term NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) grand challenge can he summarized as documenting and enabling improved, observationally based, predictions of water and energy cycle consequences of Earth system variability and change. This challenge requires documenting and predicting trends in the rate of the Earth's water and energy cycling that corresponds to climate change and changes in the frequency and intensity of naturally occurring related meteorological and hydrologic events, which may vary as climate may vary in the future. The cycling of water and energy has obvious and significant implications for the health and prosperity of our society. The importance of documenting and predicting water and energy cycle variations and extremes is necessary to accomplish this benefit to society.

Assessing the Role of Climate Variability on Liver Fluke Risk in the UK Through Mechanistic Hydro-Epidemiological Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beltrame, L.; Dunne, T.; Rose, H.; Walker, J.; Morgan, E.; Vickerman, P.; Wagener, T.

2016-12-01

Liver fluke is a flatworm parasite infecting grazing animals worldwide. In the UK, it causes considerable production losses to cattle and sheep industries and costs farmers millions of pounds each year due to reduced growth rates and lower milk yields. Large part of the parasite life-cycle takes place outside of the host, with its survival and development strongly controlled by climatic and hydrologic conditions. Evidence of climate-driven changes in the distribution and seasonality of fluke disease already exists, as the infection is increasingly expanding to new areas and becoming a year-round problem. Therefore, it is crucial to assess current and potential future impacts of climate variability on the disease to guide interventions at the farm scale and mitigate risk. Climate-based fluke risk models have been available since the 1950s, however, they are based on empirical relationships derived between historical climate and incidence data, and thus are unlikely to be robust for simulating risk under changing conditions. Moreover, they are not dynamic, but estimate risk over large regions in the UK based on monthly average climate conditions, so they do not allow investigating the effects of climate variability for supporting farmers' decisions. In this study, we introduce a mechanistic model for fluke, which represents habitat suitability for disease development at 25m resolution with a daily time step, explicitly linking the parasite life-cycle to key hydro-climate conditions. The model is used on a case study in the UK and sensitivity analysis is performed to better understand the role of climate variability on the space-time dynamics of the disease, while explicitly accounting for uncertainties. Comparisons are presented with experts' knowledge and a widely used empirical model.

Simulation of Changes in the Near-Surface Soil Freeze/Thaw Cycle Using CLM4.5 With Four Atmospheric Forcing Data Sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Donglin; Wang, Aihui; Li, Duo; Hua, Wei

2018-03-01

Change in the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle is critical for assessments of hydrological activity, ecosystems, and climate change. Previous studies investigated the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle change mostly based on in situ observations and satellite monitoring. Here numerical simulation method is tested to estimate the long-term change in the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle in response to recent climate warming for its application to predictions. Four simulations are performed at 0.5° × 0.5° resolution from 1979 to 2009 using the Community Land Model version 4.5, each driven by one of the four atmospheric forcing data sets (i.e., one default Climate Research Unit-National Centers for Environmental Prediction [CRUNCEP] and three newly developed Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim). The observations from 299 weather stations in both Russia and China are employed to validate the simulated results. The results show that all simulations reasonably reproduce the observed variations in the ground temperature, the freeze start and end dates, and the freeze duration (the correlation coefficients range from 0.47 to 0.99, and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies range from 0.19 to 0.98). Part of the simulations also exactly simulate the trends of the ground temperature, the freeze start and end dates, and the freeze duration. Of the four simulations, the results from the simulation using the CRUNCEP data set show the best overall agreement with the in situ observations, indicating that the CRUNCEP data set could be preferentially considered as the basic atmospheric forcing data set for future prediction. The simulated area-averaged annual freeze duration shortened by 8.03 days on average from 1979 to 2009, with an uncertainty (one standard deviation) of 0.67 days caused by the different atmospheric forcing data sets. These results address the performance of numerical model in simulating the long-term changes in the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle and the role of different atmospheric forcing data sets in the simulation, which are useful for the prediction of future freeze/thaw dynamics.

Glacial-Interglacial, Orbital and Millennial-Scale Climate Variability for the Last Glacial Cycle at Shackleton Site U1385 based on Dinoflagellate Cysts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Datema, M.

2015-12-01

The Shackleton Site (IODP Expedition 339 Site U1385), located off the West-Portuguese Margin, preserves a continuous high-fidelity record of millennial-scale climate variability for the last several glacial cycles (~1.4 Myr) that can be correlated precisely to patterns observed in polar ice cores. In addition, rapid delivery of terrestrial material to the deep-sea environment allows the correlation of these marine records to European terrestrial climate records. This unique marine-ice-terrestrial linkage makes the Shackleton Site the ideal reference section for studying Quaternary abrupt climate change. The main objective of studying Site U1385 is to establish a marine reference section of Pleistocene climate change. We generated (sub)millennial-scale (~600 year interval) dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) assemblage records from Shackleton Site U1385 (IODP Expedition 339) to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) and productivity/upwelling over the last 152 kyrs. In addition, our approach allows for detailed land-sea correlations, because we also counted assemblages of pollen and spores from higher plants. Dinocyst SST and upwelling proxies, as well as warm/cold pollen proxies from Site U1385 show glacial-interglacial, orbital and stadial-interstadial climate variability and correlate very well to Uk'37, planktic foraminifer δ18O and Ca/Ti proxies of previously drilled Shackleton Sites and Greenland Ice Core δ18O. The palynological proxies capture (almost) all Dansgaard-Oeschger events of the last glacial cycle, also before ~70 ka, where millennial-scale variability is overprinted by precession. We compare the performance and results of the palynology of Site U1385 to proxies of previously drilled Shackleton Sites and conclude that palynology strengthens the potential of this site to form a multi-proxy reference section for millennial scale climate variability across the Pleistocene-Holocene. Finally, we will present a long-term paleoceanographic perspective down to ~150 ka.

N cycling in SPRUCE (Spruce Peatlands Response Under Climatic and Environmental Changes)

EPA Science Inventory

Peatlands located in boreal regions make up a third of global wetland area and are expected to have the highest temperature increases in response to climate change. As climate warms, we expect peat decomposition may accelerate, altering the cycling of nitrogen. Alterations in th...

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Vision for the Program and Highlights of the Scientific Strategic Plan

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-07-01

CH4, N2O, O3, etc. Aerosols Clouds ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION WATER CYCLE LAND-USE/ LAND-COVER CHANGE HUMAN CONTRIBUTIONS AND RESPONSES CARBON...Oceanographic Institution. Climate Variability and Change ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE GLOBAL WATER CYCLE LAND-USE/LAND-COVER CHANGE...their access to and use of water. CCSP-supported research on the global water cycle focuses on how natural processes and human activities influence the

Revisiting historical climatic signals to better explore the future: prospects of water cycle changes in Central Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leauthaud, C.; Demarty, J.; Cappelaere, B.; Grippa, M.; Kergoat, L.; Velluet, C.; Guichard, F.; Mougin, E.; Chelbi, S.; Sultan, B.

2015-06-01

Rainfall and climatic conditions are the main drivers of natural and cultivated vegetation productivity in the semiarid region of Central Sahel. In a context of decreasing cultivable area per capita, understanding and predicting changes in the water cycle are crucial. Yet, it remains challenging to project future climatic conditions in West Africa since there is no consensus on the sign of future precipitation changes in simulations coming from climate models. The Sahel region has experienced severe climatic changes in the past 60 years that can provide a first basis to understand the response of the water cycle to non-stationary conditions in this part of the world. The objective of this study was to better understand the response of the water cycle to highly variable climatic regimes in Central Sahel using historical climate records and the coupling of a land surface energy and water model with a vegetation model that, when combined, simulated the Sahelian water, energy and vegetation cycles. To do so, we relied on a reconstructed long-term climate series in Niamey, Republic of Niger, in which three precipitation regimes can be distinguished with a relative deficit exceeding 25% for the driest period compared to the wettest period. Two temperature scenarios (+2 and +4 °C) consistent with future warming scenarios were superimposed to this climatic signal to generate six virtual future 20-year climate time series. Simulations by the two coupled models forced by these virtual scenarios showed a strong response of the water budget and its components to temperature and precipitation changes, including decreases in transpiration, runoff and drainage for all scenarios but those with highest precipitation. Such climatic changes also strongly impacted soil temperature and moisture. This study illustrates the potential of using the strong climatic variations recorded in the past decades to better understand potential future climate variations.

Teaching About CO2 as a Climate Regulator During the Phanerozoic and Today

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

St John, K. K.; Krissek, L. A.; Jones, M. H.; Leckie, R. M.; Pound, K. S.

2010-12-01

As part of the NSF-funded CCLI Type 1 project “Building Core Knowledge - Reconstructing Earth History”, this new four-part student-active learning exercise explores how the exchange of carbon into and out of the atmosphere is a primary factor in regulating climate over timescales of years to millions of years. In Part 1, students make initial observations about the short term global carbon cycle, its reservoirs, and the rates of carbon transfer from one reservoir to another. In Part 2, students investigate how CO2 directly and indirectly affects temperature. This understanding is developed though quantitative analysis of the changes in radiative forcing of CO2 and other factors (e.g., land surface albedo) between 1750 and 2005 based on IPCC climate models, and by constructing qualitative logic scenarios of positive and negative feedbacks in Earth’s climate system. In Part 3, students examine instrumental and ice core records of atmospheric CO2 levels, and identify which parts of the carbon cycle are most important at regulating climate over historical time periods. In Part 4, students, investigate the long-term global carbon cycle, CO2, and Phanerozoic climate history. Using proxy data and general circulation model results they identify Greenhouse and Icehouse times, and place modern climate change in a geologic context. The exercise set is designed for use in introductory undergraduate geoscience classes, either as a series of separate 30 to 60-minute in-class activities, as a single concentrated lab activity, or as homework assignments. In addition to developing content knowledge about CO2 as a climate regulator during the Phanerozoic and today, students also develop and practice their skills in making observations, interpreting data from graphs and tables, performing calculations, differentiating and making connections between processes and results, identifying scientific uncertainties, and communicating scientific results. This exercise set is currently being classroom tested, and is part of a larger undergraduate curriculum called “Building Core Knowledge - Reconstructing Earth History”, which uses authentic data to teach anchor concepts of climate change through sediment core archives (NSF Grant # 0737335).

Global Changes of the Water Cycle Intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Walker, Gregory K.

2003-01-01

In this study, we evaluate numerical simulations of the twentieth century climate, focusing on the changes in the intensity of the global water cycle. A new diagnostic of atmospheric water vapor cycling rate is developed and employed, that relies on constituent tracers predicted at the model time step. This diagnostic is compared to a simplified traditional calculation of cycling rate, based on monthly averages of precipitation and total water content. The mean sensitivity of both diagnostics to variations in climate forcing is comparable. However, the new diagnostic produces systematically larger values and more variability than the traditional average approach. Climate simulations were performed using SSTs of the early (1902-1921) and late (1979- 1998) twentieth century along with the appropriate C02 forcing. In general, the increase of global precipitation with the increases in SST that occurred between the early and late twentieth century is small. However, an increase of atmospheric temperature leads to a systematic increase in total precipitable water. As a result, the residence time of water in the atmosphere increased, indicating a reduction of the global cycling rate. This result was explored further using a number of 50-year climate simulations from different models forced with observed SST. The anomalies and trends in the cycling rate and hydrologic variables of different GCMs are remarkably similar. The global annual anomalies of precipitation show a significant upward trend related to the upward trend of surface temperature, during the latter half of the twentieth century. While this implies an increase in the hydrologic cycle intensity, a concomitant increase of total precipitable water again leads to a decrease in the calculated global cycling rate. An analysis of the land/sea differences shows that the simulated precipitation over land has a decreasing trend while the oceanic precipitation has an upward trend consistent with previous studies and the available observations. The decreasing continental trend in precipitation is located primarily over tropical land regions, with some other regions, such as North America experiencing an increasing trend. Precipitation trends are diagnosed further using the water tracers to delineate the precipitation that occurs because of continental evaporation, as opposed to oceanic evaporation. These diagnostics show that over global land areas, the recycling of continental moisture is decreasing in time. However, the recycling changes are not spatially uniform so that some regions, most notably over the United States, experience continental recycling of water that increases in time.

Relevance of emissions timing in biofuel greenhouse gases and climate impacts.

PubMed

Schwietzke, Stefan; Griffin, W Michael; Matthews, H Scott

2011-10-01

Employing life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as a key performance metric in energy and environmental policy may underestimate actual climate change impacts. Emissions released early in the life cycle cause greater cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) over the next decades than later emissions. Some indicate that ignoring emissions timing in traditional biofuel GHG accounting overestimates the effectiveness of policies supporting corn ethanol by 10-90% due to early land use change (LUC) induced GHGs. We use an IPCC climate model to (1) estimate absolute CRF from U.S. corn ethanol and (2) quantify an emissions timing factor (ETF), which is masked in the traditional GHG accounting. In contrast to earlier analyses, ETF is only 2% (5%) over 100 (50) years of impacts. Emissions uncertainty itself (LUC, fuel production period) is 1-2 orders of magnitude higher, which dwarfs the timing effect. From a GHG accounting perspective, emissions timing adds little to our understanding of the climate impacts of biofuels. However, policy makers should recognize that ETF could significantly decrease corn ethanol's probability of meeting the 20% GHG reduction target in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act. The added uncertainty of potentially employing more complex emissions metrics is yet to be quantified.

Project Summary (2012-2015) – Carbon Dynamics of the Greater Everglades Watershed and Implications of Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hinkle, Ross; Benscoter, Brian; Comas, Xavier

2015-04-07

Carbon Dynamics of the Greater Everglades Watershed and Implications of Climate Change The objectives of this project are to: 1) quantify above- and below-ground carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems along a seasonal hydrologic gradient in the headwaters region of the Greater Everglades watershed; 2) develop budgets of ecosystem gaseous carbon exchange (carbon dioxide and methane) across the seasonal hydrologic gradient; 3) assess the impact of climate drivers on ecosystem carbon exchange in the Greater Everglades headwater region; and 4) integrate research findings with climate-driven terrestrial ecosystem carbon models to examine the potential influence of projected future climate change on regionalmore » carbon cycling. Note: this project receives a one-year extension past the original performance period - David Sumner (USGS) is not included in this extension.« less

INTERACTIVE EFFECTS OF SOLAR UV RADIATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLING

EPA Science Inventory

This paper assesses research on the interactions of UV radiation (280-400 nm) and global climate change with global biogeochemical cycles at the Earth's surface. The effects of UV-B (280-315 nm), which are dependent on the stratospheric ozone layer, on biogeochemical cycles are o...

Climate Change and Macro-Economic Cycles in Pre-Industrial Europe

PubMed Central

Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D.; Lee, Harry F.; Li, Guodong

2014-01-01

Climate change has been proven to be the ultimate cause of social crisis in pre-industrial Europe at a large scale. However, detailed analyses on climate change and macro-economic cycles in the pre-industrial era remain lacking, especially within different temporal scales. Therefore, fine-grained, paleo-climate, and economic data were employed with statistical methods to quantitatively assess the relations between climate change and agrarian economy in Europe during AD 1500 to 1800. In the study, the Butterworth filter was adopted to filter the data series into a long-term trend (low-frequency) and short-term fluctuations (high-frequency). Granger Causality Analysis was conducted to scrutinize the associations between climate change and macro-economic cycle at different frequency bands. Based on quantitative results, climate change can only show significant effects on the macro-economic cycle within the long-term. In terms of the short-term effects, society can relieve the influences from climate variations by social adaptation methods and self-adjustment mechanism. On a large spatial scale, temperature holds higher importance for the European agrarian economy than precipitation. By examining the supply-demand mechanism in the grain market, population during the study period acted as the producer in the long term, whereas as the consumer in the short term. These findings merely reflect the general interactions between climate change and macro-economic cycles at the large spatial region with a long-term study period. The findings neither illustrate individual incidents that can temporarily distort the agrarian economy nor explain some specific cases. In the study, the scale thinking in the analysis is raised as an essential methodological issue for the first time to interpret the associations between climatic impact and macro-economy in the past agrarian society within different temporal scales. PMID:24516601

The Role of Plate Tectonic-Climate Coupling and Exposed Land Area in the Development of Habitable Climates on Rocky Planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foley, Bradford J.

2015-10-01

The long-term carbon cycle is vital for maintaining liquid water oceans on rocky planets due to the negative climate feedbacks involved in silicate weathering. Plate tectonics plays a crucial role in driving the long-term carbon cycle because it is responsible for CO2 degassing at ridges and arcs, the return of CO2 to the mantle through subduction, and supplying fresh, weatherable rock to the surface via uplift and orogeny. However, the presence of plate tectonics itself may depend on climate according to recent geodynamical studies showing that cool surface temperatures are important for maintaining vigorous plate tectonics. Using a simple carbon cycle model, I show that the negative climate feedbacks inherent in the long-term carbon cycle are uninhibited by climate's effect on plate tectonics. Furthermore, initial atmospheric CO2 conditions do not impact the final climate state reached when the carbon cycle comes to equilibrium, as long as liquid water is present and silicate weathering can occur. Thus an initially hot, CO2 rich atmosphere does not prevent the development of a temperate climate and plate tectonics on a planet. However, globally supply limited weathering does prevent the development of temperate climates on planets with small subaerial land areas and large total CO2 budgets because supply limited weathering lacks stabilizing climate feedbacks. Planets in the supply limited regime may become inhospitable for life and could experience significant water loss. Supply limited weathering is less likely on plate tectonic planets because plate tectonics promotes high erosion rates and thus a greater supply of bedrock to the surface.

Climate change and macro-economic cycles in pre-industrial europe.

PubMed

Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D; Lee, Harry F; Li, Guodong

2014-01-01

Climate change has been proven to be the ultimate cause of social crisis in pre-industrial Europe at a large scale. However, detailed analyses on climate change and macro-economic cycles in the pre-industrial era remain lacking, especially within different temporal scales. Therefore, fine-grained, paleo-climate, and economic data were employed with statistical methods to quantitatively assess the relations between climate change and agrarian economy in Europe during AD 1500 to 1800. In the study, the Butterworth filter was adopted to filter the data series into a long-term trend (low-frequency) and short-term fluctuations (high-frequency). Granger Causality Analysis was conducted to scrutinize the associations between climate change and macro-economic cycle at different frequency bands. Based on quantitative results, climate change can only show significant effects on the macro-economic cycle within the long-term. In terms of the short-term effects, society can relieve the influences from climate variations by social adaptation methods and self-adjustment mechanism. On a large spatial scale, temperature holds higher importance for the European agrarian economy than precipitation. By examining the supply-demand mechanism in the grain market, population during the study period acted as the producer in the long term, whereas as the consumer in the short term. These findings merely reflect the general interactions between climate change and macro-economic cycles at the large spatial region with a long-term study period. The findings neither illustrate individual incidents that can temporarily distort the agrarian economy nor explain some specific cases. In the study, the scale thinking in the analysis is raised as an essential methodological issue for the first time to interpret the associations between climatic impact and macro-economy in the past agrarian society within different temporal scales.

Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change.

PubMed

Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

2015-10-01

Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates.

Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

2015-01-01

Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates. PMID:26501958

Frequency variations of the earth's obliquity and the 100-kyr ice-age cycles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Han-Shou

1992-01-01

Changes in the earth's climate are induced by variations in the earth's orbital parameters which modulate the seasonal distribution of solar radiation. Periodicities in the geological climate record with cycles of 100, 41, and 23 kyr have been linked with changes in obliquity, eccentricity, and precession of the equinoxes. The effect of variations of eccentricity during a 100 kyr period is weak relative to the signals from obliquity and precession variations and it may therefore be expected that the 100 kyr signal in the climate record would be of low intensity. However, this signal dominates the climate record and internal nonlinear processes within the climate system have previously been proposed to account for this fact. The author shows that variations in the frequency of the obliquity cycle can give rise to strong 100-kyr forcing of climate.

Increasing water cycle extremes in California and relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoon, Jin -Ho; Wang, S. -Y. Simon; Gillies, Robert R.

California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history since the winter of 2013-2014. The long duration of drought has stressed statewide water resources and the economy, while fueling an extraordinary increase in wildfires. The effects of global warming on the regional climate include a hotter and drier climate, as well as earlier snowmelt, both of which exacerbate drought conditions. However, connections between a changing climate and how climate oscillations modulate regional water cycle extremes are not well understood. Here we analyze large-ensemble simulations of future climate change in California using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1)more » and multiple climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% toward the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, the projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with tighter relation to El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), particularly extreme El Niño and La Niña events, which modulates California’s climate not only through its warm and cold phases, but also ENSO’s precursor patterns.« less

Increasing water cycle extremes in California and relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

DOE PAGES

Yoon, Jin -Ho; Wang, S. -Y. Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; ...

2015-10-21

California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history since the winter of 2013-2014. The long duration of drought has stressed statewide water resources and the economy, while fueling an extraordinary increase in wildfires. The effects of global warming on the regional climate include a hotter and drier climate, as well as earlier snowmelt, both of which exacerbate drought conditions. However, connections between a changing climate and how climate oscillations modulate regional water cycle extremes are not well understood. Here we analyze large-ensemble simulations of future climate change in California using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1)more » and multiple climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% toward the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, the projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with tighter relation to El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), particularly extreme El Niño and La Niña events, which modulates California’s climate not only through its warm and cold phases, but also ENSO’s precursor patterns.« less

The Seasonal cycle of the Tropical Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor in Chemistry-Climate Models in Comparison with Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X.; Dessler, A. E.

2017-12-01

The seasonal cycle is one of the key features of the tropical lower stratospheric water vapor, so it is important that the climate models reproduce it. In this analysis, we evaluate how well the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM) and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) reproduce the seasonal cycle of tropical lower stratospheric water vapor. We do this by comparing the models to observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim (ERAi). We also evaluate if the chemistry-climate models (CCMs) reproduce the key transport and dehydration processes that regulate the seasonal cycle using a forward, domain filling, diabatic trajectory model. Finally, we explore the changes of the seasonal cycle during the 21st century in the two CCMs. Our results show general agreement in the seasonal cycles from the MLS, the ERAi, and the CCMs. Despite this agreement, there are some clear disagreements between the models and the observations on the details of transport and dehydration in the TTL. Finally, both the CCMs predict a moister seasonal cycle by the end of the 21st century. But they disagree on the changes of the seasonal amplitude, which is predicted to increase in the GEOSCCM and decrease in the WACCM.

Intercomparison of the capabilities of simplified climate models to project the effects of aviation CO2 on climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khodayari, Arezoo; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Olsen, Seth C.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje; Lund, Marianne T.; Waitz, Ian; Wolfe, Philip; Forster, Piers M.; Meinshausen, Malte; Lee, David S.; Lim, Ling L.

2013-08-01

This study evaluates the capabilities of the carbon cycle and energy balance treatments relative to the effect of aviation CO2 emissions on climate in several existing simplified climate models (SCMs) that are either being used or could be used for evaluating the effects of aviation on climate. Since these models are used in policy-related analyses, it is important that the capabilities of such models represent the state of understanding of the science. We compare the Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool (APMT) Impacts climate model, two models used at the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo (CICERO-1 and CICERO-2), the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) model as described in Jain et al. (1994), the simple Linear Climate response model (LinClim) and the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change version 6 (MAGICC6). In this paper we select scenarios to illustrate the behavior of the carbon cycle and energy balance models in these SCMs. This study is not intended to determine the absolute and likely range of the expected climate response in these models but to highlight specific features in model representations of the carbon cycle and energy balance models that need to be carefully considered in studies of aviation effects on climate. These results suggest that carbon cycle models that use linear impulse-response-functions (IRF) in combination with separate equations describing air-sea and air-biosphere exchange of CO2 can account for the dominant nonlinearities in the climate system that would otherwise not have been captured with an IRF alone, and hence, produce a close representation of more complex carbon cycle models. Moreover, results suggest that an energy balance model with a 2-box ocean sub-model and IRF tuned to reproduce the response of coupled Earth system models produces a close representation of the globally-averaged temperature response of more complex energy balance models.

How Sensitive Is the Carbon Budget Approach to Potential Carbon Cycle Changes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, D.

2014-12-01

The recent development of global Earth-system models, which include dynamic representations of both physical climate and carbon cycle processes, has led to new insights about how the climate responds to human carbon dioxide emissions. Notably, several model analyses have now shown that global temperature responds linearly to cumulative CO2 emissions across a wide range of emissions scenarios. This implies that the timing of CO2 emissions does not affect the overall climate response, and allows a finite global carbon carbon budget to be defined for a given global temperature target. This linear climate response, however, emerges from the interaction of several non-linear processes and feedbacks involving how carbon sinks respond to changes in atmospheric CO2 and climate. In this presentation, I will give an overview of how carbon sinks and carbon cycle feedbacks contribute to the overall linearity of the climate response to cumulative emissions, and will assess how robust this relationship is to a range of possible changes in the carbon cycle, including (a) potential positive carbon cycle feedbacks that are not well represented in the current generation of Earth-system models and (b) negative emission scenarios resulting from possible technological strategies to remove CO2 from the atmosphere.

Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region: Modeled Productivity in Permafrost Regions

DOE PAGES

Xia, Jianyang; McGuire, A. David; Lawrence, David; ...

2017-01-26

Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246 ± 6 g C m -2 yr -1), most models produced higher NPP (309 ± 12 g C m -2 yr -1) over the permafrost region during 2000–2009.more » By comparing the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) with a flux tower-based database, we found that although mean GPP among the models was only overestimated by 10% over 1982–2009, there was a twofold discrepancy among models (380 to 800 g C m -2 yr -1), which mainly resulted from differences in simulated maximum monthly GPP (GPP max). Most models overestimated C use efficiency (CUE) as compared to observations at both regional and site levels. Further analysis shows that model variability of GPP and CUE are nonlinearly correlated to variability in specific leaf area and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C (Vc max_25), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO 2 concentration. In conclusion, these results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPP max as well as their sensitivity to climate change.« less

Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Jianyang; McGuire, A. David; Lawrence, David; Burke, Eleanor; Chen, Guangsheng; Chen, Xiaodong; Delire, Christine; Koven, Charles; MacDougall, Andrew; Peng, Shushi; Rinke, Annette; Saito, Kazuyuki; Zhang, Wenxin; Alkama, Ramdane; Bohn, Theodore J.; Ciais, Philippe; Decharme, Bertrand; Gouttevin, Isabelle; Hajima, Tomohiro; Hayes, Daniel J.; Huang, Kun; Ji, Duoying; Krinner, Gerhard; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Miller, Paul A.; Moore, John C.; Smith, Benjamin; Sueyoshi, Tetsuo; Shi, Zheng; Yan, Liming; Liang, Junyi; Jiang, Lifen; Zhang, Qian; Luo, Yiqi

2017-02-01

Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246 ± 6 g C m-2 yr-1), most models produced higher NPP (309 ± 12 g C m-2 yr-1) over the permafrost region during 2000-2009. By comparing the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) with a flux tower-based database, we found that although mean GPP among the models was only overestimated by 10% over 1982-2009, there was a twofold discrepancy among models (380 to 800 g C m-2 yr-1), which mainly resulted from differences in simulated maximum monthly GPP (GPPmax). Most models overestimated C use efficiency (CUE) as compared to observations at both regional and site levels. Further analysis shows that model variability of GPP and CUE are nonlinearly correlated to variability in specific leaf area and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C (Vcmax_25), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration. These results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPPmax as well as their sensitivity to climate change.

Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region: Modeled Productivity in Permafrost Regions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xia, Jianyang; McGuire, A. David; Lawrence, David

Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246 ± 6 g C m -2 yr -1), most models produced higher NPP (309 ± 12 g C m -2 yr -1) over the permafrost region during 2000–2009.more » By comparing the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) with a flux tower-based database, we found that although mean GPP among the models was only overestimated by 10% over 1982–2009, there was a twofold discrepancy among models (380 to 800 g C m -2 yr -1), which mainly resulted from differences in simulated maximum monthly GPP (GPP max). Most models overestimated C use efficiency (CUE) as compared to observations at both regional and site levels. Further analysis shows that model variability of GPP and CUE are nonlinearly correlated to variability in specific leaf area and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C (Vc max_25), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO 2 concentration. In conclusion, these results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPP max as well as their sensitivity to climate change.« less

Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xia, Jianyang; McGuire, A. David; Lawrence, David; Burke, Eleanor J.; Chen, Guangsheng; Chen, Xiaodong; Delire, Christine; Koven, Charles; MacDougall, Andrew; Peng, Shushi; Rinke, Annette; Saito, Kazuyuki; Zhang, Wenxin; Alkama, Ramdane; Bohn, Theodore J.; Ciais, Philippe; Decharme, Bertrand; Gouttevin, Isabelle; Hajima, Tomohiro; Hayes, Daniel J.; Huang, Kun; Ji, Duoying; Krinner, Gerhard; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Miller, Paul A.; Moore, John C.; Smith, Benjamin; Sueyoshi, Tetsuo; Shi, Zheng; Yan, Liming; Liang, Junyi; Jiang, Lifen; Zhang, Qian; Luo, Yiqi

2017-01-01

Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246 ± 6 g C m−2 yr−1), most models produced higher NPP (309 ± 12 g C m−2 yr−1) over the permafrost region during 2000–2009. By comparing the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) with a flux tower-based database, we found that although mean GPP among the models was only overestimated by 10% over 1982–2009, there was a twofold discrepancy among models (380 to 800 g C m−2 yr−1), which mainly resulted from differences in simulated maximum monthly GPP (GPPmax). Most models overestimated C use efficiency (CUE) as compared to observations at both regional and site levels. Further analysis shows that model variability of GPP and CUE are nonlinearly correlated to variability in specific leaf area and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C (Vcmax_25), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration. These results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPPmax as well as their sensitivity to climate change.

Desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol interactions in the Community Climate System Model coupled-carbon-climate model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahowald, Natalie; Rothenberg, D.; Lindsay, Keith

2011-02-01

Coupled-carbon-climate simulations are an essential tool for predicting the impact of human activity onto the climate and biogeochemistry. Here we incorporate prognostic desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into the CCSM3.1 coupled carbon-climate model and explore the resulting interactions with climate and biogeochemical dynamics through a series of transient anthropogenic simulations (20th and 21st centuries) and sensitivity studies. The inclusion of prognostic aerosols into this model has a small net global cooling effect on climate but does not significantly impact the globally averaged carbon cycle; we argue that this is likely to be because the CCSM3.1 model has a small climatemore » feedback onto the carbon cycle. We propose a mechanism for including desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into a simple carbon-climate feedback analysis to explain the results of our and previous studies. Inclusion of aerosols has statistically significant impacts on regional climate and biogeochemistry, in particular through the effects on the ocean nitrogen cycle and primary productivity of altered iron inputs from desert dust deposition.« less

[A wavelet analysis on the onset cycle of scarlet fever in Beijing and its relationship with theory of five evolutive phases and six climatic factors].

PubMed

Fu, Bang-ze; Tang, Qiao-ling; Huang, Ling; He, Juan

2013-03-01

To explore the onset cycle of scarlet fever in Beijing and its association with theory of five evolutive phases and six climatic factors (FEPSCF). Based on the monthly scarlet fever data from 1970 to 2004, Complex Morlet wavelet was adopted to analyze the annual incidence and the incidence of six climatic factors in the past 35 years. Its association with the cycles of FEP-SCF was explored. The features of heavenly stems and earthly branches in the year that the wave peak corresponded and their correlations with doctrine of FEPSCF were analyzed. The annual incidence of scarlet fever and the incidence of FEPSCF had two main cycles, i.e., 5 years and 28 years. The 5-year primary cycle was consistent with 5-year cycle of FEPSCF theory. The high incidence year of 5-year primary cycle was Jinyun. The cycle of five evolutive phases was consistent with the onset cycle of scarlet fever. The quasi-periodic phenomenon and multi-cycle superimposed phenomenon of FEPSCF theory existed in the incidence of scarlet fever.

A conceptual model for glacial cycles and the middle Pleistocene transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daruka, István; Ditlevsen, Peter D.

2016-01-01

Milankovitch's astronomical theory of glacial cycles, attributing ice age climate oscillations to orbital changes in Northern-Hemisphere insolation, is challenged by the paleoclimatic record. The climatic response to the variations in insolation is far from trivial. In general the glacial cycles are highly asymmetric in time, with slow cooling from the interglacials to the glacials (inceptions) and very rapid warming from the glacials to the interglacials (terminations). We shall refer to this fast-slow dynamics as the "saw-tooth" shape of the paleoclimatic record. This is non-linearly related to the time-symmetric variations in the orbital forcing. However, the most pronounced challenge to the Milankovitch theory is the middle Pleistocene transition (MPT) occurring about one million years ago. During that event, the prevailing 41 kyr glacial cycles, corresponding to the almost harmonic obliquity cycle were replaced by longer saw-tooth shaped cycles with a time-scale around 100 kyr. The MPT must have been driven by internal changes in climate response, since it does not correspond to any apparent changes in the orbital forcing. In order to identify possible mechanisms causing the observed changes in glacial dynamics, it is relevant to study simplified models with the capability of generating temporal behavior similar to the observed records. We present a simple oscillator type model approach, with two variables, a temperature anomaly and a climatic memory term. The generalization of the ice albedo feedback is included in terms of an effective multiplicative coupling between this latter climatic memory term (representing the internal degrees of freedom) and the external drive. The simple model reproduces the temporal asymmetry of the late Pleistocene glacial cycles and suggests that the MPT can be explained as a regime shift, aided by climatic noise, from a period 1 frequency locking to the obliquity cycle to a period 2-3 frequency locking to the same obliquity cycle. The change in dynamics has been suggested to be a result of a slow gradual decrease in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. The critical dependence on initial conditions in the (non-autonomous) glacial dynamics raises fundamental questions about climate predictability.

A Comparative Study on the Environmental Impact of CO2 Supermarket Refrigeration Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beshr, Mohamed; Aute, Vikrant; Sharma, Vishaldeep

Supermarket refrigeration systems have high environmental impact due to their large refrigerant charge and high leak rates. Accordingly, the interest in using natural refrigerants, such as carbon dioxide (CO2), and new refrigerant blends with low GWP in such systems is increasing. In this paper, an open-source Life Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP) framework is presented and used to compare the environmental impact of three supermarket refrigeration systems. These systems include a transcritical CO2 booster system, a cascade CO2/N-40 system, and a baseline R-404A multiplex direct expansion system. The study is performed for cities representing different climates within the USA using EnergyPlusmore » to simulate the systems' hourly performance. Finally, a parametric analysis is performed to study the impact of annual leak rate on the systems' LCCP.« less

AIRS-Observed Interrelationships of Anomaly Time-Series of Moist Process-Related Parameters and Inferred Feedback Values on Various Spatial Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molnar, Gyula I.; Susskind, Joel; Iredell, Lena

2011-01-01

In the beginning, a good measure of a GMCs performance was their ability to simulate the observed mean seasonal cycle. That is, a reasonable simulation of the means (i.e., small biases) and standard deviations of TODAY?S climate would suffice. Here, we argue that coupled GCM (CG CM for short) simulations of FUTURE climates should be evaluated in much more detail, both spatially and temporally. Arguably, it is not the bias, but rather the reliability of the model-generated anomaly time-series, even down to the [C]GCM grid-scale, which really matter. This statement is underlined by the social need to address potential REGIONAL climate variability, and climate drifts/changes in a manner suitable for policy decisions.

Simulations of the future precipitation climate of the Central Andes using a coupled regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholls, S.; Mohr, K. I.

2014-12-01

The meridional extent and complex orography of the South American continent contributes to a wide diversity of climate regimes ranging from hyper-arid deserts to tropical rainforests to sub-polar highland regions. Global climate models, although capable of resolving synoptic-scale South American climate features, are inadequate for fully-resolving the strong gradients between climate regimes and the complex orography which define the Tropical Andes given their low spatial and temporal resolution. Recent computational advances now make practical regional climate modeling with prognostic mesoscale atmosphere-ocean coupled models, such as the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system, to climate research. Previous work has shown COAWST to reasonably simulate the both the entire 2003-2004 wet season (Dec-Feb) as validated against both satellite and model analysis data. More recently, COAWST simulations have also been shown to sensibly reproduce the entire annual cycle of rainfall (Oct 2003 - Oct 2004) with historical climate model input. Using future global climate model input for COAWST, the present work involves year-long cycle spanning October to October for the years 2031, 2059, and 2087 assuming the most likely regional climate pathway (RCP): RCP 6.0. COAWST output is used to investigate how global climate change impacts the spatial distribution, precipitation rates, and diurnal cycle of precipitation patterns in the Central Andes vary in these yearly "snapshots". Initial results show little change to precipitation coverage or its diurnal cycle, however precipitation amounts did tend drier over the Brazilian Plateau and wetter over the Western Amazon and Central Andes. These results suggest potential adjustments to large-scale climate features (such as the Bolivian High).

Gimme shelter--the relative sensitivity of parasitic nematodes with direct and indirect life cycles to climate change.

PubMed

Molnár, Péter K; Dobson, Andrew P; Kutz, Susan J

2013-11-01

Climate change is expected to alter the dynamics of host-parasite systems globally. One key element in developing predictive models for these impacts is the life cycle of the parasite. It is, for example, commonly assumed that parasites with an indirect life cycle would be more sensitive to changing environmental conditions than parasites with a direct life cycle due to the greater chance that at least one of their obligate host species will go extinct. Here, we challenge this notion by contrasting parasitic nematodes with a direct life cycle against those with an indirect life cycle. Specifically, we suggest that behavioral thermoregulation by the intermediate host may buffer the larvae of indirectly transmitted parasites against temperature extremes, and hence climate warming. We term this the 'shelter effect'. Formalizing each life cycle in a comprehensive model reveals a fitness advantage for the direct life cycle over the indirect life cycle at low temperatures, but the shelter effect reverses this advantage at high temperatures. When examined for seasonal environments, the models suggest that climate warming may in some regions create a temporal niche in mid-summer that excludes parasites with a direct life cycle, but allows parasites with an indirect life cycle to persist. These patterns are amplified if parasite larvae are able to manipulate their intermediate host to increase ingestion probability by definite hosts. Furthermore, our results suggest that exploiting the benefits of host sheltering may have aided the evolution of indirect life cycles. Our modeling framework utilizes the Metabolic Theory of Ecology to synthesize the complexities of host behavioral thermoregulation and its impacts on various temperature-dependent parasite life history components in a single measure of fitness, R0 . It allows quantitative predictions of climate change impacts, and is easily generalized to many host-parasite systems. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The GLOBE Carbon Project: Integrating the Science of Carbon Cycling and Climate Change into K-12 Classrooms.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ollinger, S. V.; Silverberg, S.; Albrechtova, J.; Freuder, R.; Gengarelly, L.; Martin, M.; Randolph, G.; Schloss, A.

2007-12-01

The global carbon cycle is a key regulator of the Earth's climate and is central to the normal function of ecological systems. Because rising atmospheric CO2 is the principal cause of climate change, understanding how ecosystems cycle and store carbon has become an extremely important issue. In recent years, the growing importance of the carbon cycle has brought it to the forefront of both science and environmental policy. The need for better scientific understanding has led to establishment of numerous research programs, such as the North American Carbon Program (NACP), which seeks to understand controls on carbon cycling under present and future conditions. Parallel efforts are greatly needed to integrate state-of-the-art science on the carbon cycle and its importance to climate with education and outreach efforts that help prepare society to make sound decisions on energy use, carbon management and climate change adaptation. Here, we present a new effort that joins carbon cycle scientists with the International GLOBE Education program to develop carbon cycle activities for K-12 classrooms. The GLOBE Carbon Cycle project is focused on bringing cutting edge research and research techniques in the field of terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling into the classroom. Students will collect data about their school field site through existing protocols of phenology, land cover and soils as well as new protocols focused on leaf traits, and ecosystem growth and change. They will also participate in classroom activities to understand carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems, these will include plant- a-plant experiments, hands-on demonstrations of various concepts, and analysis of collected data. In addition to the traditional GLOBE experience, students will have the opportunity to integrate their data with emerging and expanding technologies including global and local carbon cycle models and remote sensing toolkits. This program design will allow students to explore research questions from local to global scales with both present and future environmental conditions.

Establishing a baseline precipitation and temperature regime for the Guianas from observations and reanalysis data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bovolo, C. Isabella; Pereira, Ryan; Parkin, Geoff; Wagner, Thomas

2010-05-01

The tropical rainforests of the Guianas, north of the Amazon, are home to several Amerindian communities, hold high levels of biodiversity and, importantly, remain some of the world's most pristine and intact rainforests. Not only do they have important functions in the global carbon cycle, but they regulate the local and regional climate and help generate rain over vast distances. Despite their significance however, the climate and hydrology of this region is poorly understood. It is important to establish the current climate regime of the area as a baseline against which any impacts of future climate change or deforestation can be measured but observed historical climate datasets are generally sparse and of low quality. Here we examine the available precipitation and temperature datasets for the region and derive tentative precipitation and temperature maps focussed on Guyana. To overcome the limitations in the inadequate observational data coverage we also make use of a reanalysis dataset from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The ECMWF ERA40 dataset comprises a spatially consistent global historical climate for the period 1957-2002 at a ~125 km2 (1.125 degree) resolution at the equator and is particularly valuable for establishing the climate of data-poor areas. Once validated for the area of interest, ERA40 is used to determine the precipitation and temperature regime of the Guianas. Grid-cell by grid-cell analysis provides a complete picture of spatial patterns of averaged monthly precipitation variability across the area, vital for establishing a basis from which to compare any future effects of climate change. This is the first comprehensive study of the recent historical climate and its variability in this area, placing a new hydroclimate monitoring and research program at the Iwokrama International Centre for Rainforest Conservation and Development, Guyana, into the broader climate context. Mean differences (biases) and annual average spatial correlations are examined between modelled ERA40 and observed time series comparing the seasonal cycles and the yearly, monthly and monthly anomaly time series. This is to evaluate if the reanalysis data correctly reproduces the areally averaged observed mean annual precipitation, interannual variability and seasonal precipitation cycle over the region. Results show that reanalysis precipitation for the region compares favourably with areally averaged observations where available, although the model underestimates precipitation in some zones of higher elevation. Also ERA40 data is slightly positively biased along the coast and negatively biased inland. Comparisons between observed and modelled data show that although correlations of annual time series are low (<0.6), correlations of monthly time series reach 0.8 demonstrating that the model captures much of the seasonal variation in precipitation. However correlations between monthly precipitation anomalies, where the averaged seasonal cycle has been removed from the comparison, are lower (< 0.6). As precipitation observations are not assimilated into the reanalysis these results provide a good validation of model performance. The seasonal cycle of precipitation is found to be highly variable across the region. Two wet-seasons (June and December) occur in northern Guyana which relate to the twice yearly passage of the inter-tropical convergence zone whereas a single wet season (April-August) occurs in the savannah zone, which stretches from Venezuela through the southern third of Guyana. The climate transition zone lies slightly north of the distinctive forest-savannah boundary which suggests that the boundary may be highly sensitive to future alterations in climate, such as those due to climate change or deforestation.

Multi-criteria evaluation of CMIP5 GCMs for climate change impact analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, Ali; Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid; Sharma, Ashish

2017-04-01

Climate change is expected to have severe impacts on global hydrological cycle along with food-water-energy nexus. Currently, there are many climate models used in predicting important climatic variables. Though there have been advances in the field, there are still many problems to be resolved related to reliability, uncertainty, and computing needs, among many others. In the present work, we have analyzed performance of 20 different global climate models (GCMs) from Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset over the Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest USA. We demonstrate a statistical multicriteria approach, using univariate and multivariate techniques, for selecting suitable GCMs to be used for climate change impact analysis in the region. Univariate methods includes mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, relative change (variability), Mann-Kendall test, and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (KS-test); whereas multivariate methods used were principal component analysis (PCA), singular value decomposition (SVD), canonical correlation analysis (CCA), and cluster analysis. The analysis is performed on raw GCM data, i.e., before bias correction, for precipitation and temperature climatic variables for all the 20 models to capture the reliability and nature of the particular model at regional scale. The analysis is based on spatially averaged datasets of GCMs and observation for the period of 1970 to 2000. Ranking is provided to each of the GCMs based on the performance evaluated against gridded observational data on various temporal scales (daily, monthly, and seasonal). Results have provided insight into each of the methods and various statistical properties addressed by them employed in ranking GCMs. Further; evaluation was also performed for raw GCM simulations against different sets of gridded observational dataset in the area.

Climate and the Carbon Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manley, Jim

2017-04-01

Climate and the Carbon Cycle EOS3a Science in tomorrow's classroom Students, like too much of the American public, are largely unaware or apathetic to the changes in world climate and the impact that these changes have for life on Earth. A study conducted by Michigan State University and published in 2011 by Science Daily titled 'What carbon cycle? College students lack scientific literacy, study finds'. This study relates how 'most college students in the United States do not grasp the scientific basis of the carbon cycle - an essential skill in understanding the causes and consequences of climate change.' The study authors call for a new approach to teaching about climate. What if teachers better understood vital components of Earth's climate system and were able to impart his understanding to their students? What if students based their responses to the information taught not on emotion, but on a deeper understanding of the forces driving climate change, their analysis of the scientific evidence and in the context of earth system science? As a Middle School science teacher, I have been given the opportunity to use a new curriculum within TERC's EarthLabs collection, Climate and the Carbon Cycle, to awaken those brains and assist my students in making personal lifestyle choices based on what they had learned. In addition, with support from TERC and The University of Texas Institute for Geophysics I joined others to begin training other teachers on how to implement this curriculum in their classrooms to expose their students to our changing climate. Through my poster, I will give you (1) a glimpse into the challenges faced by today's science teachers in communicating the complicated, but ever-deepening understanding of the linkages between natural and human-driven factors on climate; (2) introduce you to a new module in the EarthLabs curriculum designed to expose teachers and students to global scientific climate data and instrumentation; and (3) illustrate how student worldviews are changed though exposure to the latest in scientific discovery and understanding.

Carbon cycle observations: gaps threaten climate mitigation policies

Treesearch

Richard Birdsey; Nick Bates; MIke Behrenfeld; Kenneth Davis; Scott C. Doney; Richard Feely; Dennis Hansell; Linda Heath; et al.

2009-01-01

Successful management of carbon dioxide (CO2) requires robust and sustained carbon cycle observations. Yet key elements of a national observation network are lacking or at risk. A U.S. National Research Council review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program earlier this year highlighted the critical need for a U.S. climate observing system to...

Effect of heat and moisture transport and storage properties of building stones on the hygrothermal performance of historical building envelopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KoÅáková, Dana; Kočí, Václav; Žumár, Jaromír; Keppert, Martin; Holčapek, Ondřej; Vejmelková, Eva; Černý, Robert

2016-12-01

The heat and moisture transport and storage parameters of three different natural stones used on the Czech territory since medieval times are determined experimentally, together with the basic physical properties and mechanical parameters. The measured data are applied as input parameters in the computational modeling of hygrothermal performance of building envelopes made of the analyzed stones. Test reference year climatic data of three different locations within the Czech Republic are used as boundary conditions on the exterior side. Using the simulated hygric and thermal performance of particular stone walls, their applicability is assessed in a relation to the geographical and climatic conditions. The obtained results indicate that all three investigated stones are highly resistant to weather conditions, freeze/thaw cycles in particular.

Feedbacks between climate change and biosphere integrity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lade, Steven; Anderies, J. Marty; Donges, Jonathan; Steffen, Will; Rockström, Johan; Richardson, Katherine; Cornell, Sarah; Norberg, Jon; Fetzer, Ingo

2017-04-01

The terrestrial and marine biospheres sink substantial fractions of human fossil fuel emissions. How the biosphere's capacity to sink carbon depends on biodiversity and other measures of biosphere integrity is however poorly understood. Here, we (1): review assumptions from literature regarding the relationships between the carbon cycle and the terrestrial and marine biospheres; and (2) explore the consequences of these different assumptions for climate feedbacks using the stylised carbon cycle model PB-INT. We find that: terrestrial biodiversity loss could significantly dampen climate-carbon cycle feedbacks; direct biodiversity effects, if they exist, could rival temperature increases from low-emission trajectories; and the response of the marine biosphere is critical for longer term climate change. Simple, low-dimensional climate models such as PB-INT can help assess the importance of still unknown or controversial earth system processes such as biodiversity loss for climate feedbacks. This study constitutes the first detailed study of the interactions between climate change and biosphere integrity, two of the 'planetary boundaries'.

Land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change: implications for land-based mitigation?

PubMed

Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Müller, Christoph; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bonsch, Markus; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Weindl, Isabelle; Biewald, Anne; Rolinski, Susanne

2015-06-02

Climate change has impacts on agricultural yields, which could alter cropland requirements and hence deforestation rates. Thus, land-use responses to climate change might influence terrestrial carbon stocks. Moreover, climate change could alter the carbon storage capacity of the terrestrial biosphere and hence the land-based mitigation potential. We use a global spatially explicit economic land-use optimization model to (a) estimate the mitigation potential of a climate policy that provides economic incentives for carbon stock conservation and enhancement, (b) simulate land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change (RCP2.6), and (c) investigate the combined effects throughout the 21st century. The climate policy immediately stops deforestation and strongly increases afforestation, resulting in a global mitigation potential of 191 GtC in 2100. Climate change increases terrestrial carbon stocks not only directly through enhanced carbon sequestration (62 GtC by 2100) but also indirectly through less deforestation due to higher crop yields (16 GtC by 2100). However, such beneficial climate impacts increase the potential of the climate policy only marginally, as the potential is already large under static climatic conditions. In the broader picture, this study highlights the importance of land-use dynamics for modeling carbon cycle responses to climate change in integrated assessment modeling.

Effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, solar UV radiation, and climate change on biogeochemical cycling: interactions and feedbacks

DOE PAGES

Erickson III, David J.; Sulzberger, Barbara; Zepp, Richard G.; ...

2014-11-07

Climate change modulates the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, particularly for carbon cycling, resulting in UV-mediated positive or negative feedbacks on climate. Possible positive feedbacks discussed in this assessment include: (i) enhanced UV-induced mineralisation of above ground litter due to aridification; (ii) enhanced UV-induced mineralisation of photoreactive dissolved organic matter (DOM) in aquatic ecosystems due to changes in continental runoff and ice melting; (iii) reduced efficiency of the biological pump due to UV-induced bleaching of coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in stratified aquatic ecosystems, where CDOM protects phytoplankton from the damaging solarmore » UV-B radiation. Mineralisation of organic matter results in the production and release of CO 2, whereas the biological pump is the main biological process for CO 2 removal by aquatic ecosystems. This research also assesses the interactive effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on the biogeochemical cycling of aerosols and trace gases other than CO 2, as well as of chemical and biological contaminants. Lastly,, interacting effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycles are particularly pronounced at terrestrial-aquatic interfaces.« less

Key ecological responses to nitrogen are altered by climate change

EPA Science Inventory

Here we review the effects of nitrogen and climate (e.g. temperature and precipitation) on four aspects of ecosystem structure and function including hydrologic-coupled nitrogen cycling, carbon cycling, acidification and biodiversity.

The GLOBE Carbon Cycle Project: Using a systems approach to understand carbon and the Earth's climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silverberg, S. K.; Ollinger, S. V.; Martin, M. E.; Gengarelly, L. M.; Schloss, A. L.; Bourgeault, J. L.; Randolph, G.; Albrechtova, J.

2009-12-01

National Science Content Standards identify systems as an important unifying concept across the K-12 curriculum. While this standard exists, there is a recognized gap in the ability of students to use a systems thinking approach in their learning. In a similar vein, both popular media as well as some educational curricula move quickly through climate topics to carbon footprint analyses without ever addressing the nature of carbon or the carbon cycle. If students do not gain a concrete understanding of carbon’s role in climate and energy they will not be able to successfully tackle global problems and develop innovative solutions. By participating in the GLOBE Carbon Cycle project, students learn to use a systems thinking approach, while at the same time, gaining a foundation in the carbon cycle and it's relation to climate and energy. Here we present the GLOBE Carbon Cycle project and materials, which incorporate a diverse set of activities geared toward upper middle and high school students with a variety of learning styles. A global carbon cycle adventure story and game let students see the carbon cycle as a complete system, while introducing them to systems thinking concepts including reservoirs, fluxes and equilibrium. Classroom photosynthesis experiments and field measurements of schoolyard vegetation brings the global view to the local level. And the use of computer models at varying levels of complexity (effects on photosynthesis, biomass and carbon storage in global biomes, global carbon cycle) not only reinforces systems concepts and carbon content, but also introduces students to an important scientific tool necessary for understanding climate change.

Development of Low Global Warming Potential Refrigerant Solutions for Commercial Refrigeration Systems using a Life Cycle Climate Performance Design Tool

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abdelaziz, Omar; Fricke, Brian A; Vineyard, Edward Allan

Commercial refrigeration systems are known to be prone to high leak rates and to consume large amounts of electricity. As such, direct emissions related to refrigerant leakage and indirect emissions resulting from primary energy consumption contribute greatly to their Life Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP). In this paper, an LCCP design tool is used to evaluate the performance of a typical commercial refrigeration system with alternative refrigerants and minor system modifications to provide lower Global Warming Potential (GWP) refrigerant solutions with improved LCCP compared to baseline systems. The LCCP design tool accounts for system performance, ambient temperature, and system load; systemmore » performance is evaluated using a validated vapor compression system simulation tool while ambient temperature and system load are devised from a widely used building energy modeling tool (EnergyPlus). The LCCP design tool also accounts for the change in hourly electricity emission rate to yield an accurate prediction of indirect emissions. The analysis shows that conventional commercial refrigeration system life cycle emissions are largely due to direct emissions associated with refrigerant leaks and that system efficiency plays a smaller role in the LCCP. However, as a transition occurs to low GWP refrigerants, the indirect emissions become more relevant. Low GWP refrigerants may not be suitable for drop-in replacements in conventional commercial refrigeration systems; however some mixtures may be introduced as transitional drop-in replacements. These transitional refrigerants have a significantly lower GWP than baseline refrigerants and as such, improved LCCP. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the tradeoffs between refrigerant GWP, efficiency and capacity.« less

The Change of Climate and Terrestrial Carbon Cycle over Tibetan Plateau in CMIP5 Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, S.

2015-12-01

Six earth system models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are evaluated over Tibetan Plateau (TP) by comparing the modeled temperature (Tas), precipitation (Pr), net primary production (NPP) and leaf area index (LAI) with the observed Tas, Pr, IGBP NPP and MPIM LAI in the historical, and then we analyzed the change of climate and carbon cycle and explored the relationship between the carbon cycle and main climatic drivers in the historical and representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) simulation over TP. While model results differ, their region spatial distributions from 1971 to 2000 agree reasonably with observed Tas, Pr and proxy LAI and NPP. The climatic variables, LAI and carbon flux vary between two simulations, the ration of NPP to gross primary production (GPP) does not change much in the historical and RCP4.5 scenarios. The linear trends of LAI and carbon flux show an obvious continuous increase from historical climatic period (1971-2000) to the first two climatic periods (2011-2040; 2041-2700) of RCP4.5, then the trends decrease in the third climatic period (2071-2100) of RCP4.5. The cumulative multi model ensemble (MME) net biome production (NBP) is 0.32 kgCm-2yr-1 during 1850 to 2005 and 1.43 kgCm-2yr-1 during 2006 to 2100, the Tibetan Plateau is a carbon sink during the historical scenario, and TP will uptake more carbon from atmosphere during 2006 to 2100 than 1850 to 2005 under RCP4.5 scenario. LAI, GPP, NPP, Ra and Rh appear more related to the Tas than Pr and Rsds, and the Tas is the primary climatic driver for the plant growth and carbon cycle. With the climate change in twenty-first century under RCP4.5 scenario, Tas still is the primary climate driver for the plant growth and carbon cycle, but the effect of temperature on plant growth and carbon cycle gets weaker.

The Role of Orbital Forcing in the Early-Middle Pleistocene Transition: Continuing the Precession Verses Obliquity Debate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maslin, M. A.; Brierley, C. M.

2015-12-01

The Early-Middle Pleistocene Transition (EMPT) is the term used to describe the prolongation and intensification of glacial-interglacial climate cycles that initiated after 900,000 years ago. During the transition glacial-interglacial cycles shift from lasting 41,000 years to an average of 100,000 years. The structure of these glacial-interglacial cycles shifts from smooth to more abrupt 'saw-toothed' like transitions. In fact we argue there is shift from a bimodal climate to a tripartite climate system (see Figure). Despite eccentricity having by far the weakest influence on insolation received at the Earth's surface of any of the orbital parameters; it is often assumed to be the primary driver of the post-EMPT 100,000 years climate cycles because of the similarity in duration. The traditional solution to this is to call for a highly nonlinear response by the global climate system to eccentricity. This 'eccentricity myth' is due to an artefact of spectral analysis which means that the last 8 glacial-interglacial average out at about 100,000 years in length despite ranging from 80,000 to 120,000 years. With the realisation that eccentricity is not the major driving force a debate has emerged as to whether precession or obliquity controlled the timing of the most recent glacial-interglacial cycles. Some argue that post-EMPT deglaciations occurred every four or five precessional cycle while others argue it is every second or third obliquity cycle. We review these current theories and suggest that though phase-locking between orbital forcing and global ice volume may occur and seem to primarily driven by the timing of precession; the chaotic nature of the climate system response means the relationship is not consistent through the last 900,000 years.

Weekly cycle in the NCAR-NCEP reanalysis of the surface temperature over northern atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesouro, M.; Gimeno, L.; Nieto, R.; Añel, J. A.; de La Torre, L.; Ribera, P.; García, R.; Hernández, E.

2003-04-01

Anthropogenic influences on climate has been detected in several climate variables, such as temperature increases and precipitation enhacement. An indicator of the anthropogenic effect is the identification of equivalent weekly cycle in climate parameters. In this case, we analyze the weekly cycle of the daily temperature at 2 metres from the NCAR-NCEP Reanalysis. The region of study is the window from 90ºW to 90ºE and from 88.5ºN to Equator and for the last 44 years. Results don´t show a clear pattern of the weekly cycle although it was possible to identify a minimum on Saturday in most of the grid points. We also analyze the weekly cycle of the temperature channel-2 MSU data that represent the lower troposphere and results don´t show any weekly cycle.

Transitions between multiple equilibria of paleo climate: a glimpse in to the dynamics of abrupt climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, David; Marshall, John; Ito, Takamitsu; McGee, David; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo

2017-04-01

The dynamics regulating large climatic transitions such as glacial-interglacial cycles or DO events remains a puzzle. Forcings behind these transitions are not robustly identified and potential candidates (e.g. Milankovitch cycles, freshwater perturbations) often appear too weak to explain such dramatic transitions. A potential solution to this long-standing puzzle is that Earth's climate is endowed with multiple equilibrium states of global extent. Such states are commonly found in low-order or conceptual climate models, but it is unclear whether a system as complex as Earth's climate can sustain multiple equilibrium states. Here we report that multiple equilibrium states of the climate system are also possible in a complex, fully dynamical coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice GCM with idealized Earth-like geometry, resolved weather systems and a hydrological cycle. In our model, two equilibrium states coexist for the same parameters and external forcings: a Warm climate with a small Northern hemisphere sea ice cap and a large southern one and a Cold climate with large ice caps at both poles. The dynamical states of the Warm and Cold solutions exhibit striking similarities with our present-day climate and the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum, respectively. A carbon cycle model driven by the two dynamical states produces an atmospheric pCO2 draw-down of about 110 pm between the Warm and Cold states, close to Glacial-Interglacial differences found in ice cores. Mechanism controlling the existence of the multiple states and changes in the atmospheric CO2 will be briefly presented. Finally we willdescribe transition experiments from the Cold to the Warm state, focusing on the lead-lags in the system, notably between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres climates.

Life-cycle assessment of electricity generation systems and applications for climate change policy analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meier, Paul Joseph

This research uses Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) to better understand the energy and environmental performance for two electricity generation systems, a 620 MW combined-cycle natural gas plant, and an 8kW building-integrated photovoltaic system. The results of the LCA are used to provide an effective and accurate means for evaluating greenhouse gas emission reduction strategies for U.S. electricity generation. The modern combined-cycle plant considered in this thesis is nominally 48% thermally efficient, but it is only 43% energy efficient when evaluated across its entire life-cycle, due primarily to energy losses during the natural gas fuel cycle. The emission rate for the combined-cycle natural gas plant life-cycle (469 tonnes CO2-equivalent per GWeh), was 23% higher than the emission rate from plant operation alone (382 tonnes CO2-equivalent per GWeh). Uncertainty in the rate of fuel-cycle methane releases results in a potential range of emission rates between 457 to 534 tonnes CO 2-equivalent per GWeh for the studied plant. The photovoltaic system modules have a sunlight to DC electricity conversion efficiency of 5.7%. However, the system's sunlight to AC electricity conversion efficiency is 4.3%, when accounting for life-cycle energy inputs, as well as losses due to system wiring, AC inversion, and module degradation. The LCA illustrates that the PV system has a low, but not zero, life-cycle greenhouse gas emission rate of 39 Tonnes CO2-equivalent per GWeh. A ternary method of evaluation is used to evaluate three greenhouse gas mitigation alternatives: (1) fuel-switching from coal to natural gas for Kyoto-based compliance, (2) fuel-switching from coal to nuclear/renewable for Kyoto based compliance, and (3) fuel-switching to meet the White House House's Global Climate Change Initiative. In a moderate growth scenario, fuel-switching from coal to natural gas fails to meet a Kyoto-based emission target, while fuel-switching to nuclear/renewable meets the emission objective by reducing coal generated electricity 32% below 2000 levels. The Global Climate Change Initiative allows annual greenhouse gas emissions to increase to levels that are 54% higher than the proposed U.S. commitment under the Kyoto Protocol.

Environmental Performance of North American Wood Panel Manufacturing

Treesearch

R. Bergman; D. Kaestner; A. Taylor

2015-01-01

Manufacturing building products such as wood panels has environmental impacts, including contributions to climate change. This paper is a compilation of four studies quantifying these impacts using the life-cycle assessment (LCA) method on five wood-based panel products made in North America during 2012. LCA is an internationally accepted and standardized method for...

Nonlinear Interactions between Climate and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Drivers of Terrestrial and Marine Carbon Cycle Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, F. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Moore, J. K.; Goulden, M.; Fu, W.; Koven, C.; Swann, A. L. S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Lindsay, K. T.; Munoz, E.

2017-12-01

Quantifying interactions between global biogeochemical cycles and the Earth system is important for predicting future atmospheric composition and informing energy policy. We applied a feedback analysis framework to three sets of Historical (1850-2005), Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (2006-2100), and its extension (2101-2300) simulations from the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1(BGC)) to quantify drivers of terrestrial and ocean responses of carbon uptake. In the biogeochemically coupled simulation (BGC), the effects of CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition influenced marine and terrestrial carbon cycling. In the radiatively coupled simulation (RAD), the effects of rising temperature and circulation changes due to radiative forcing from CO2, other greenhouse gases, and aerosols were the sole drivers of carbon cycle changes. In the third, fully coupled simulation (FC), both the biogeochemical and radiative coupling effects acted simultaneously. We found that climate-carbon sensitivities derived from RAD simulations produced a net ocean carbon storage climate sensitivity that was weaker and a net land carbon storage climate sensitivity that was stronger than those diagnosed from the FC and BGC simulations. For the ocean, this nonlinearity was associated with warming-induced weakening of ocean circulation and mixing that limited exchange of dissolved inorganic carbon between surface and deeper water masses. For the land, this nonlinearity was associated with strong gains in gross primary production in the FC simulation, driven by enhancements in the hydrological cycle and increased nutrient availability. We developed and applied a nonlinearity metric to rank model responses and driver variables. The climate-carbon cycle feedback gain at 2300 was 42% higher when estimated from climate-carbon sensitivities derived from the difference between FC and BGC than when derived from RAD. We re-analyzed other CMIP5 model results to quantify the effects of such nonlinearities on their projected climate-carbon cycle feedback gains.

Agricultural conservation practices can help mitigate the impact of climate change.

PubMed

Wagena, Moges B; Easton, Zachary M

2018-09-01

Agricultural conservation practices (CPs) are commonly implemented to reduce diffuse nutrient pollution. Climate change can complicate the development, implementation, and efficiency of agricultural CPs by altering hydrology, nutrient cycling, and erosion. This research quantifies the impact of climate change on hydrology, nutrient cycling, erosion, and the effectiveness of agricultural CP in the Susquehanna River Basin in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA. We develop, calibrate, and test the Soil and Water Assessment Tool-Variable Source Area (SWAT-VSA) model and select four CPs; buffer strips, strip-cropping, no-till, and tile drainage, to test their effectiveness in reducing climate change impacts on water quality. We force the model with six downscaled global climate models (GCMs) for a historic period (1990-2014) and two future scenario periods (2041-2065 and 2075-2099) and quantify the impact of climate change on hydrology, nitrate-N (NO 3 -N), total N (TN), dissolved phosphorus (DP), total phosphorus (TP), and sediment export with and without CPs. We also test prioritizing CP installation on the 30% of agricultural lands that generate the most runoff (e.g., critical source areas-CSAs). Compared against the historical baseline and with no CPs, the ensemble model predictions indicate that climate change results in annual increases in flow (4.5±7.3%), surface runoff (3.5±6.1%), sediment export (28.5±18.2%) and TN export (9.5±5.1%), but decreases in NO 3 -N (12±12.8%), DP (14±11.5), and TP (2.5±7.4%) export. When agricultural CPs are simulated most do not appreciably change the water balance, however, tile drainage and strip-cropping decrease surface runoff, sediment export, and DP/TP, while buffer strips reduce N export. Installing CPs on CSAs results in nearly the same level of performance for most practices and most pollutants. These results suggest that climate change will influence the performance of agricultural CPs and that targeting agricultural CPs to CSAs can provide nearly the same level of water quality effects as more widespread adoption. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Willner, Sven N.; Hartin, Corinne; Gieseke, Robert

Here, pyhector is a Python interface for the simple climate model Hector (Hartin et al. 2015) developed in C++. Simple climate models like Hector can, for instance, be used in the analysis of scenarios within integrated assessment models like GCAM1, in the emulation of complex climate models, and in uncertainty analyses. Hector is an open-source, object oriented, simple global climate carbon cycle model. Its carbon cycle consists of a one pool atmosphere, three terrestrial pools which can be broken down into finer biomes or regions, and four carbon pools in the ocean component. The terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary productionmore » and respiration fluxes. The ocean carbon cycle circulates carbon via a simplified thermohaline circulation, calculating air-sea fluxes as well as the marine carbonate system. The model input is time series of greenhouse gas emissions; as example scenarios for these the Pyhector package contains the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)2.« less

Tracking climate impacts on the migratory monarch butterfly

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zipkin, Elise F.; Ries, Leslie; Reeves, Rick; Regetz, James; Oberhauser, Karen S.

2012-01-01

Understanding the impacts of climate on migratory species is complicated by the fact that these species travel through several climates that may be changing in diverse ways throughout their complete migratory cycle. Most studies are not designed to tease out the direct and indirect effects of climate at various stages along the migration route. We assess the impacts of spring and summer climate conditions on breeding monarch butterflies, a species that completes its annual migration cycle over several generations. No single, broad-scale climate metric can explain summer breeding phenology or the substantial year-to-year fluctuations observed in population abundances. As such, we built a Poisson regression model to help explain annual arrival times and abundances in the Midwestern United States. We incorporated the climate conditions experienced both during a spring migration/breeding phase in Texas as well as during subsequent arrival and breeding during the main recruitment period in Ohio. Using data from a state-wide butterfly monitoring network in Ohio, our results suggest that climate acts in conflicting ways during the spring and summer seasons. High spring precipitation in Texas is associated with the largest annual population growth in Ohio and the earliest arrival to the summer breeding ground, as are intermediate spring temperatures in Texas. On the other hand, the timing of monarch arrivals to the summer breeding grounds is not affected by climate conditions within Ohio. Once in Ohio for summer breeding, precipitation has minimal impacts on overall abundances, whereas warmer summer temperatures are generally associated with the highest expected abundances, yet this effect is mitigated by the average seasonal temperature of each location in that the warmest sites receive no benefit of above average summer temperatures. Our results highlight the complex relationship between climate and performance for a migrating species and suggest that attempts to understand how monarchs will be affected by future climate conditions will be challenging.

The Description and Validation of a Computationally-Efficient CH4-CO-OH (ECCOH) Module for 3D Model Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elshorbany, Yasin F.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Strode, Sarah A.; Wang, James S.; Kouatchou, Jules

2015-01-01

We present the Efficient CH4-CO-OH Module (ECCOH) that allows for the simulation of the methane, carbon monoxide and hydroxyl radical (CH4-CO-OH cycle, within a chemistry climate model, carbon cycle model, or earth system model. The computational efficiency of the module allows many multi-decadal, sensitivity simulations of the CH4-CO-OH cycle, which primarily determines the global tropospheric oxidizing capacity. This capability is important for capturing the nonlinear feedbacks of the CH4-CO-OH system and understanding the perturbations to relatively long-lived methane and the concomitant impacts on climate. We implemented the ECCOH module into the NASA GEOS-5 Atmospheric Global Circulation Model (AGCM), performed multiple sensitivity simulations of the CH4-CO-OH system over two decades, and evaluated the model output with surface and satellite datasets of methane and CO. The favorable comparison of output from the ECCOH module (as configured in the GEOS-5 AGCM) with observations demonstrates the fidelity of the module for use in scientific research.

Climate and carbon-cycle response to astronomical forcing over the last 35 Ma.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Vleeschouwer, D.; Palike, H.; Vahlenkamp, M.; Crucifix, M.

2017-12-01

On a million-year time scale, the characteristics of insolation forcing caused by cyclical variations in the astronomical parameters of the Earth remain stable. Nevertheless, Earth's climate responded very differently to this forcing during different parts of the Cenozoic. The recently-published ∂18Obenthic megasplice (De Vleeschouwer et al., 2017) allowed for a clear visualization of these changes in global climate response to astronomical forcing. However, many open questions remain regarding how carbon-cycle dynamics influence Earth's climate sensitivity to astronomical climate forcing. To provide insight into the interaction between the carbon cycle and astronomical insolation forcing, we built a benthic carbon isotope (∂13Cbenthic) megasplice for the last 35 Ma, employing the same technique used to build the ∂18Obenthic megasplice. The ∂13Cbenthic megasplice exhibits a strong imprint of the 405 and 100-kyr eccentricity cycles throughout the last 35 Ma. This is intriguing, as the oxygen isotope megasplice looses its eccentricity imprint after the mid-Miocene climatic transition (MMCT; see Fig. 1 in De Vleeschouwer et al., 2017). In other words, the carbon cycle responded completely differently to astronomical forcing, compared to global climate during the late Miocene. We visualize this difference in response by the application of a Gaussian process, which renders the dependence of one variable (here ∂18Obenthic or ∂13Cbenthic) in a multidimensional space (here precession, obliquity and eccentricity). Together, the ∂13Cbenthic and ∂18Obenthic megasplices thus provide a unique tool for paleoclimatology, allowing for the quantification and visualization of the changing paleoclimate and carbon-cycle response to astronomical forcing throughout geologic time. References De Vleeschouwer, D., Vahlenkamp, M., Crucifix, M., Pälike, H., 2017. Alternating Southern and Northern Hemisphere climate response to astronomical forcing during the past 35 m.y. Geology 45, 375-378.

Exploring the Interactions between Land Use, Climate Change and Carbon Cycle using Satellite Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, R. L.; Fares, A.; He, Y.; Awal, R.; Risch, E.

2017-12-01

Most climate change impacts are linked to terrestrial vegetation productivity, carbon stocks and land use change. Changes in land use and climate drive the dynamics of terrestrial carbon cycle. These carbon cycle dynamics operate at different spatial and temporal scales. Quantification of the spatial and temporal variability of carbon flux has been challenging because land-atmosphere-carbon exchange is influenced by many factors, including but not limited to, land use change and climate change and variability. The study of terrestrial carbon cycle, mainly gross primary product (GPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), soil organic carbon (SOC) and ecosystem respiration (Re) and their interactions with land use and climate change, are critical to understanding the terrestrial ecosystem. The main objective of this study was to examine the interactions among land use, climate change and terrestrial carbon cycling in the state of Texas using satellite measurements. We studied GPP, NEE, Re and SOC distributions for five selected major land covers and all ten climate zones in Texas using Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) carbon products. SMAP Carbon products (Res=9 km) were compared with observed CO2 flux data measured at EC flux site on Prairie View A&M University Research Farm. Results showed the same land cover in different climate zones has significantly different carbon sequestration potentials. For example, cropland of the humid climate zone has higher (-228 g C/m2) carbon sequestration potentials than the semiarid climate zone (-36 g C/m2). Also, shrub land in the humid zone and in the semiarid zone showed high (-120 g C/m2) and low (-36 g C/m2) potentials of carbon sequestration, respectively, in the state. Overall, the analyses indicate CO2 storage and exchange respond differently to various land covers, and environments due to differences in water availability, root distribution and soil properties.

Climate Events and Cycles During the Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Eun Hee; Lee, Dae-Young; Park, Mi-Young

2017-09-01

During the last glacial-interglacial transition, there were multiple intense climatic events such as the Bølling-Allerød warming and Younger Dryas cooling. These events show abrupt and rapid climatic changes. In this study, the climate events and cycles during this interval are examined through wavelet analysis of Arctic and Antarctic ice-core 18O and tropical marine 14C records. The results show that periods of 1383-1402, 1029-1043, 726-736, 441-497 and 202-247 years are dominant in the Arctic region, whereas periods of 1480, 765, 518, 311, and 207 years are prominent in the Antarctic TALDICE. In addition, cycles of 1019, 515, and 209 years are distinct in the tropical region. Among these variations, the de Vries cycle of 202-209 years, correlated with variations in solar activity, was detected globally. In particular, this cycle shows a strong signal in the Antarctic between about 13,000 and 10,500 yr before present (BP). In contrast, the Eddy cycle of 1019-1043 years was prominent in Greenland and the tropical region, but was not detected in the Antarctic TALDICE records. Instead, these records showed that the Heinrich cycle of 1480 year was very strong and significant throughout the last glacial-interglacial interval.

CHANGING CLIMATE AND PHOTOBIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES IN AQUATIC ENVIRONMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

Global biogeochemistry plays a critical role in controlling life processes, climate and their interactions, including effects on atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Recent evidence indicates that the light-driven part of aquatic biogeochemical cycles is being altered by in...

Land Use and Climate Variability Amplify Contaminant Pulses

EPA Science Inventory

Converting land to human-dominated uses has increased contaminant loads in streams and rivers and vastly transformed hydrological cycles (Vitousek et al. 1997). More recently, climate change has further altered hydrologic cycles and variability of precipitation (IPCC 2007). Toge...

Dryland feedbacks to climatic change: Results from a climate manipulation experiment on the Colorado Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, S.; Belnap, J.; Ferrenberg, S.; Wertin, T. M.; Darrouzet-Nardi, A.; Tucker, C.; Rutherford, W. A.

2015-12-01

Arid and semiarid ecosystems cover ~40% of Earth's terrestrial surface and make up ~35% of the U.S., yet we know surprisingly little about how climate change will affect these widespread landscapes. Like many dryland regions, the Colorado Plateau in the southwestern U.S. is predicted to experience climate change as elevated temperature and altered timing and amount of annual precipitation. We are using a long-term (>10 yr) factorial warming and supplemental rainfall experiment on the Colorado Plateau to explore how predicted changes in climate will affect vascular plant and biological soil crust community composition, biogeochemical cycling, and energy balance (biocrusts are a surface soil community of moss, lichen, and cyanobacteria that can make up as much as 70% of the living cover in drylands). While some of the responses we have observed were expected, many of the results are surprising. For example, we documented biocrust community composition shifts in response to altered climate that were significantly faster and more dramatic than considered likely for these soil communities that typically change over decadal and centennial timescales. Further, while we continue to observe important climate change effects on carbon cycling - including reduced net photosynthesis in vascular plants, increased CO2 losses from biocrust soils during some seasons, and changes to the interactions between water and carbon cycles - we have also found marked treatment effects on the albedo and spectral signatures of dryland soils. In addition to demonstrating the effects of these treatments, the strong relationships we observed in our experiments between biota and climate provide a quantitative framework for improving our representation of dryland responses to climate change. In this talk we will cover a range of datasets that, taken together, show: (1) large climate-driven changes to dryland biogeochemical cycling may be the result of both effects on existing communities, as well of relatively rapid shifts in community composition; (2) drylands could provide feedbacks to future climate not only though altered carbon cycling but also via changes to surface albedo; and (3) models of dryland responses to climate change may need significant revision, but such a revision is well within reach.

Hydrological cycle in the Danube basin in present and projected future climate conditions: a models' intercomparison perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucarini, V.

2010-09-01

We present an intercomparison and verification analysis of several GCMs and RCMs included in the 4th IPCC assessment report on their representation of the hydrological cycle on the Danube river basin for present and (in the case of the GCMs) projected future climate conditions. The basin-scale properties of the hydrological cycle are computed by spatially integrating the precipitation, evaporation, and runoff fields using the Voronoi-Thiessen tessellation formalism. Large discrepancies exist among RCMs for the monthly climatology as well as for the mean and variability of the annual balances, and only few data sets are consistent with the observed discharge values of the Danube at its Delta. This occurs in spite of common nesting of the RCMs into the same run of the same AGCM, and even if the driving AGCM provides itself an excellent estimate. We find consistently that, for a given model, increases in the resolution do not alter the net water balance, while speeding up the hydrological cycle through the enhancement of both precipitation and evaporation by the same amount. We propose that the atmospheric components of RCMs still face difficulties in representing the water balance even on a relatively large scale. Moreover, since for some models the hydrological balance estimates obtained with the runoff fields do not agree with those obtained via precipitation and evaporation, some deficiencies of the land models are also apparent. In the case of the GCMs, the span of the model- simulated mean annual water balances is of the same order of magnitude of the observed Danube discharge of the Delta; the true value is within the range simulated by the models. Some land components seem to have deficiencies since there are cases of violation of water conservation when annual means are considered. The overall performance and the degree of agreement of the GCMs are, surprisingly, comparable to those of the RCMs. Both RCMs and GCMs greatly outperform the NCEP-NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses in representing the present climate conditions. The reanalyses result to be largely inadequate for describing the hydrology of the Danube river basin, both for the reconstruction of the long-term averages and of the seasonal cycle. The reanalyses cannot in any sense be used as verification. In global warming conditions, for basically all models the water balance decreases, whereas its interannual variability increases. Changes in the strength of the hydrological cycle are not consistent among models: it is confirmed that capturing the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle is not an easy task over land areas. We note that for some of the diagnostics the ensemble mean does not represent any sort of "average" model, and it often falls between the models’ clusters. We suggest that these results should be carefully considered in the perspective of auditing climate models and assessing their ability to simulate future climate changes.

A warm or a cold early Earth? New insights from a 3-D climate-carbon model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charnay, Benjamin; Le Hir, Guillaume; Fluteau, Frédéric; Forget, François; Catling, David C.

2017-09-01

Oxygen isotopes in marine cherts have been used to infer hot oceans during the Archean with temperatures between 60 °C (333 K) and 80 °C (353 K). Such climates are challenging for the early Earth warmed by the faint young Sun. The interpretation of the data has therefore been controversial. 1D climate modeling inferred that such hot climates would require very high levels of CO2 (2-6 bars). Previous carbon cycle modeling concluded that such stable hot climates were impossible and that the carbon cycle should lead to cold climates during the Hadean and the Archean. Here, we revisit the climate and carbon cycle of the early Earth at 3.8 Ga using a 3D climate-carbon model. We find that CO2 partial pressures of around 1 bar could have produced hot climates given a low land fraction and cloud feedback effects. However, such high CO2 partial pressures should not have been stable because of the weathering of terrestrial and oceanic basalts, producing an efficient stabilizing feedback. Moreover, the weathering of impact ejecta during the Late Heavy Bombardment (LHB) would have strongly reduced the CO2 partial pressure leading to cold climates and potentially snowball Earth events after large impacts. Our results therefore favor cold or temperate climates with global mean temperatures between around 8 °C (281 K) and 30 °C (303 K) and with 0.1-0.36 bar of CO2 for the late Hadean and early Archean. Finally, our model suggests that the carbon cycle was efficient for preserving clement conditions on the early Earth without necessarily requiring any other greenhouse gas or warming process.

Simulating the convective precipitation diurnal cycle in a North American scale convection-permitting model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scaff, L.; Li, Y.; Prein, A. F.; Liu, C.; Rasmussen, R.; Ikeda, K.

2017-12-01

A better representation of the diurnal cycle of convective precipitation is essential for the analysis of the energy balance and the water budget components such as runoff, evaporation and infiltration. Convection-permitting regional climate modeling (CPM) has been shown to improve the models' performance of summer precipitation, allowing to: (1) simulate the mesoscale processes in more detail and (2) to provide more insights in future changes in convective precipitation under climate change. In this work we investigate the skill of the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) in simulating the summer precipitation diurnal cycle over most of North America. We use 4 km horizontal grid spacing in a 13-years long current and future period. The future scenario is assuming no significant changes in large-scale weather patterns and aims to answer how the weather of the current climate would change if it would reoccur at the end of the century under a high-end emission scenario (Pseudo Global Warming). We emphasize on a region centered on the lee side of the Canadian Rocky Mountains, where the summer precipitation amount shows a regional maximum. The historical simulations are capable to correctly represent the diurnal cycle. At the lee-side of the Canadian Rockies the increase in the convective available potential energy as well as pronounced low-level moisture flux from the southeast Prairies explains the local maximum in summer precipitation. The PGW scenario shows an increase in summer precipitation amount and intensity in this region, consistently with a stronger source of moisture and convective energy.

Implications of incorporating N cycling and N limitations on primary production in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, B.; Wårlind, D.; Arneth, A.; Hickler, T.; Leadley, P.; Siltberg, J.; Zaehle, S.

2013-11-01

The LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model uniquely combines an individual- and patch-based representation of vegetation dynamics with ecosystem biogeochemical cycling from regional to global scales. We present an updated version that includes plant and soil N dynamics, analysing the implications of accounting for C-N interactions on predictions and performance of the model. Stand structural dynamics and allometric scaling of tree growth suggested by global databases of forest stand structure and development were well-reproduced by the model in comparison to an earlier multi-model study. Accounting for N cycle dynamics improved the goodness-of-fit for broadleaved forests. N limitation associated with low N mineralisation rates reduces productivity of cold-climate and dry-climate ecosystems relative to mesic temperate and tropical ecosystems. In a model experiment emulating free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) treatment for forests globally, N-limitation associated with low N mineralisation rates of colder soils reduces CO2-enhancement of NPP for boreal forests, while some temperate and tropical forests exhibit increased NPP enhancement. Under a business-as-usual future climate and emissions scenario, ecosystem C storage globally was projected to increase by c. 10%; additional N requirements to match this increasing ecosystem C were within the high N supply limit estimated on stoichiometric grounds in an earlier study. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for C-N interactions not only in studies of global terrestrial C cycling, but to understand underlying mechanisms on local scales and in different regional contexts.

Implications of incorporating N cycling and N limitations on primary production in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, B.; Wårlind, D.; Arneth, A.; Hickler, T.; Leadley, P.; Siltberg, J.; Zaehle, S.

2014-04-01

The LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model uniquely combines an individual- and patch-based representation of vegetation dynamics with ecosystem biogeochemical cycling from regional to global scales. We present an updated version that includes plant and soil N dynamics, analysing the implications of accounting for C-N interactions on predictions and performance of the model. Stand structural dynamics and allometric scaling of tree growth suggested by global databases of forest stand structure and development were well reproduced by the model in comparison to an earlier multi-model study. Accounting for N cycle dynamics improved the goodness of fit for broadleaved forests. N limitation associated with low N-mineralisation rates reduces productivity of cold-climate and dry-climate ecosystems relative to mesic temperate and tropical ecosystems. In a model experiment emulating free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) treatment for forests globally, N limitation associated with low N-mineralisation rates of colder soils reduces CO2 enhancement of net primary production (NPP) for boreal forests, while some temperate and tropical forests exhibit increased NPP enhancement. Under a business-as-usual future climate and emissions scenario, ecosystem C storage globally was projected to increase by ca. 10%; additional N requirements to match this increasing ecosystem C were within the high N supply limit estimated on stoichiometric grounds in an earlier study. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for C-N interactions in studies of global terrestrial N cycling, and as a basis for understanding mechanisms on local scales and in different regional contexts.

From the field to classrooms: Scientists and educators collaborating to develop K-12 lessons on arctic carbon cycling and climate change that align with Next Generation Science Standards, and informal outreach programs that bring authentic data to informal audiences.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brinker, R.; Cory, R. M.

2014-12-01

Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) calls for students across grade levels to understand climate change and its impacts. To achieve this goal, the NSF-sponsored PolarTREC program paired an educator with scientists studying carbon cycling in the Arctic. The data collection and fieldwork performed by the team will form the basis of hands-on science learning in the classroom and will be incorporated into informal outreach sessions in the community. Over a 16-day period, the educator was stationed at Toolik Field Station in the High Arctic. (Toolik is run by the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Institute of Arctic Biology.) She participated in a project that analyzed the effects of sunlight and microbial content on carbon production in Artic watersheds. Data collected will be used to introduce the following NGSS standards into the middle-school science curriculum: 1) Construct a scientific explanation based on evidence. 2) Develop a model to explain cycling of water. 3) Develop and use a model to describe phenomena. 4) Analyze and interpret data. 5) A change in one system causes and effect in other systems. Lessons can be telescoped to meet the needs of classrooms in higher or lower grades. Through these activities, students will learn strategies to model an aspect of carbon cycling, interpret authentic scientific data collected in the field, and conduct geoscience research on carbon cycling. Community outreach sessions are also an effective method to introduce and discuss the importance of geoscience education. Informal discussions of firsthand experience gained during fieldwork can help communicate to a lay audience the biological, physical, and chemical aspects of the arctic carbon cycle and the impacts of climate change on these features. Outreach methods will also include novel use of online tools to directly connect audiences with scientists in an effective and time-efficient manner.

Incorporating phosphorus cycling into global modeling efforts: a worthwhile, tractable endeavor.

PubMed

Reed, Sasha C; Yang, Xiaojuan; Thornton, Peter E

2015-10-01

324 I. 324 II. 325 III. 326 IV. 327 328 References 328 SUMMARY: Myriad field, laboratory, and modeling studies show that nutrient availability plays a fundamental role in regulating CO2 exchange between the Earth's biosphere and atmosphere, and in determining how carbon pools and fluxes respond to climatic change. Accordingly, global models that incorporate coupled climate-carbon cycle feedbacks made a significant advance with the introduction of a prognostic nitrogen cycle. Here we propose that incorporating phosphorus cycling represents an important next step in coupled climate-carbon cycling model development, particularly for lowland tropical forests where phosphorus availability is often presumed to limit primary production. We highlight challenges to including phosphorus in modeling efforts and provide suggestions for how to move forward. No claim to original US government works New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Climate Change and the Arboviruses: Lessons from the Evolution of the Dengue and Yellow Fever Viruses.

PubMed

Tabachnick, Walter J

2016-09-29

The impact of anticipated changes in global climate on the arboviruses and the diseases they cause poses a significant challenge for public health. The past evolution of the dengue and yellow fever viruses provides clues about the influence of changes in climate on their future evolution. The evolution of both viruses has been influenced by virus interactions involving the mosquito species and the primate hosts involved in virus transmission, and by their domestic and sylvatic cycles. Information is needed on how viral genes in general influence phenotypic variance for important viral functions. Changes in global climate will alter the interactions of mosquito species with their primate hosts and with the viruses in domestic cycles, and greater attention should be paid to the sylvatic cycles. There is great danger for the evolution of novel viruses, such as new serotypes, that could compromise vaccination programs and jeopardize public health. It is essential to understand (a) both sylvatic and domestic cycles and (b) the role of virus genetic and environmental variances in shaping virus phenotypic variance to more fully assess the impact of global climate change.

Divergent influences of the Greenland and Antarctica climates on the Asian monsoon during a stadial to interstadial cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Fucai; Wang, Yongjin; Liao, Zebo; Chen, Shitao; Zhang, Weihong; Shao, Qingfeng

2018-06-01

Despite the links of Asian monsoon with climates at high northern and southern latitudes, it remains unclear that at which time and to what extent the Asian monsoon variation is dominated by one of the two drivers throughout a Greenland Stadial (GS) to Greenland Interstadial (GI) cycle. Here we provide a Chinese stalagmite δ18O record to study their teleconnections throughout the GS-6 to GI-5.2 cycle. The resemblance between the stalagmite and Greenland records, in timing, duration and abruptness of GI-5.2, supports that the occurrence and termination of GIs are paced by the northern driving force. During the intervals of GI-5.2 and GS-6, however, the Asian monsoon fluctuated concomitantly with variation in temperature over Antarctica, instead of over Greenland. This covariation indicates dominant influences of the Antarctic climate during the climatically stable intervals of stadials and interstadials. This study updates our knowledge on mechanical dynamics of the Asian monsoon change and global climate change throughout a GS to GI cycle.

Responding to the Consequences of Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hildebrand, Peter H.

2011-01-01

The talk addresses the scientific consensus concerning climate change, and outlines the many paths that are open to mitigate climate change and its effects on human activities. Diverse aspects of the changing water cycle on Earth are used to illustrate the reality climate change. These include melting snowpack, glaciers, and sea ice; changes in runoff; rising sea level; moving ecosystems, an more. Human forcing of climate change is then explained, including: greenhouse gasses, atmospheric aerosols, and changes in land use. Natural forcing effects are briefly discussed, including volcanoes and changes in the solar cycle. Returning to Earth's water cycle, the effects of climate-induced changes in water resources is presented. Examples include wildfires, floods and droughts, changes in the production and availability of food, and human social reactions to these effects. The lk then passes to a discussion of common human reactions to these forecasts of climate change effects, with a summary of recent research on the subject, plus several recent historical examples of large-scale changes in human behavior that affect the climate and ecosystems. Finally, in the face for needed action on climate, the many options for mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects are presented, with examples of the ability to take affordable, and profitable action at most all levels, from the local, through national.

The impact of land use on carbon and climate in the preindustrial Holocene: What have we learned and what are the priorities for future research?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, E. C.; Kaplan, J. O.

2015-12-01

Did humans affect global climate over the before the Industrial Era? While this question is hotly debated, the co-evolution of humans and the natural environment over the last 11,700 years had an undisputed role in influencing the development and present state of terrestrial ecosystems. Yet we still have a very incomplete picture of human-environment interactions over the Holocene. In order to address this lack of understanding, both bottom-up and top-down approaches have been used to reconstruct past human impact on the global carbon cycle and climate. Top-down approaches rely on the analysis of the concentrations and isotopic signature of trace gases trapped in polar ice to identify human contributions to atmospheric composition. Bottom-up approaches combine historical and archaeological data to reconstruct land use, and using these reconstructions drive earth system models that simulate carbon cycling and climate. Recently a number of studies, both top-down and bottom-up, have shed new light on the role of land use influencing the carbon cycle and climate over the preindustrial Holocene. Ice core studies generally suggested that late Holocene CO2 was driven by natural fluctuations in climate and ocean circulation. The evidence from bottom-up studies is more nuanced. Most scenarios of Holocene anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) tend to agree in the net magnitude of deforestation at AD 1850. But ALCC scenarios vary widely in the timing of deforestation over the course of the preindustrial Holocene. These differences lead to multiple plausible explanations to the atmospheric composition record, including scenarios that allow for a substantial amount of anthropogenic deforestation in preindustrial time. Uncertainty in our understanding of preindustrial ALCC also leads to large differences in the estimated importance of land use on climate earlier in the Holocene. For example, modelling experiments performed for Europe representing conditions at the peak of the Roman Empire show potentially large impacts of land use on regional climate. The wide variety of results gained so far from ALCC and climate modelling experiments shows that the question of "how much did humans influence the state of the Earth System before the Industrial Revolution?" is far from being resolved.

Towards more accurate vegetation mortality predictions

DOE PAGES

Sevanto, Sanna Annika; Xu, Chonggang

2016-09-26

Predicting the fate of vegetation under changing climate is one of the major challenges of the climate modeling community. Here, terrestrial vegetation dominates the carbon and water cycles over land areas, and dramatic changes in vegetation cover resulting from stressful environmental conditions such as drought feed directly back to local and regional climate, potentially leading to a vicious cycle where vegetation recovery after a disturbance is delayed or impossible.

Climate sensitivity derived from orbital-scale, δ11B-based pCO2 estimates in the early Pleistocene, ~1.5 Ma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dyez, K. A.; Hoenisch, B.

2015-12-01

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the late Pleistocene have been characterized from ancient air bubbles trapped within polar ice sheets. Ice-core records clearly demonstrate the glacial-interglacial relationship between the global carbon cycle and climate, but they are so far limited to the last 800 ky, when glacial cycles occurred approximately every 100-ky. Boron isotope ratios (δ11B) recorded in the tests of fossil planktic foraminifera offer an opportunity to extend the atmospheric pCO2 record into the early Pleistocene, when glacial cycles instead occurred approximately every 41-ky. We present a new high-resolution record of planktic foraminiferal d11B, Mg/Ca (a sea surface temperature proxy) and salinity estimates from the deconvolution of δ18O and Mg/Ca. Combined with reasonable assumptions of ocean alkalinity, these data allow us to estimate pCO2 over three of the 41-ky climate cycles at ~1.5 Ma. Our results confirm the hypothesis that climate and atmospheric pCO2 were coupled beyond ice core records and provide new constraints for studies of long-term CO2 storage and release, regional controls on the early Pleistocene carbon cycle, and estimating climate sensitivity before the mid-Pleistocene transition.

Carbon Climate Feedbacks and Climate Sensitivity (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fung, I.

2009-12-01

The Charney report (22 pages including bibliography and appendices) was written when atmospheric CO2 was 334 ppmv (1979). It estimates a climate sensitivity of 3 +/- 1.5C for a doubling of CO2, and points out the warming delay due to the slow penetration of heat into intermediate depths in the oceans and the decreasing capacity of the oceans to serve a CO2 sink. “We may not be given a warning until the CO2 loading is such that an appreciable climate change is inevitable. The equilibrium warming will eventually occur; it will merely have been postponed.” CO2 exceeded 385 ppmv in 2008, and the warning signs are now abundantly evident. One of the “slow” feedbacks not included in the Charney Report involves the interaction between the land carbon cycle and climate change. The carbon cycle on land is coupled to the water and energy cycles. This paper reviews positive and negative carbon-climate feedbacks associated with changes in the function and distribution of land ecosystems. These feedbacks, once in gear, will magnify climate sensitivity and accelerate global warming.

Student Development of Model-Based Reasoning about Carbon Cycling and Climate Change in a Socio-Scientific Issues Unit

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zangori, Laura; Peel, Amanda; Kinslow, Andrew; Friedrichsen, Patricia; Sadler, Troy D.

2017-01-01

Carbon cycling is a key natural system that requires robust science literacy to understand how and why climate change is occurring. Studies show that students tend to compartmentalize carbon movement within plants and animals and are challenged to make sense of how carbon cycles on a global scale. Studies also show that students hold faulty models…

Can current moisture responses predict soil CO2 efflux under altered precipitation regimes? A synthesis of manipulation experiments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As a key component of the carbon cycle, soil respiration (Rsoil) is being excessively studied with the aim of improving our understanding as well as our ability to predict Rsoil when climate changes. Many manipulation experiments have been performed to test how Rsoil and other carbon fluxes and ecos...

A simple conceptual model to interpret the 100 000 years dynamics of paleo-climate records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiroga Lombard, C. S.; Balenzuela, P.; Braun, H.; Chialvo, D. R.

2010-10-01

Spectral analyses performed on records of cosmogenic nuclides reveal a group of dominant spectral components during the Holocene period. Only a few of them are related to known solar cycles, i.e., the De Vries/Suess, Gleissberg and Hallstatt cycles. The origin of the others remains uncertain. On the other hand, time series of North Atlantic atmospheric/sea surface temperatures during the last ice age display the existence of repeated large-scale warming events, called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, spaced around multiples of 1470 years. The De Vries/Suess and Gleissberg cycles with periods close to 1470/7 (~210) and 1470/17 (~86.5) years have been proposed to explain these observations. In this work we found that a conceptual bistable model forced with the De Vries/Suess and Gleissberg cycles plus noise displays a group of dominant frequencies similar to those obtained in the Fourier spectra from paleo-climate during the Holocene. Moreover, we show that simply changing the noise amplitude in the model we obtain similar power spectra to those corresponding to GISP2 δ18O (Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2) during the last ice age. These results give a general dynamical framework which allows us to interpret the main characteristic of paleoclimate records from the last 100 000 years.

Impact of Charge Degradation on the Life Cycle Climate Performance of a Residential Air-Conditioning System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beshr, Mohamed; Aute, Vikrant; Abdelaziz, Omar

2014-01-01

Vapor compression systems continuously leak a small fraction of their refrigerant charge to the environment, whether during operation or servicing. As a result of the slow leak rate occurring during operation, the refrigerant charge decreases until the system is serviced and recharged. This charge degradation, after a certain limit, begins to have a detrimental effect on system capacity, energy consumption, and coefficient of performance (COP). This paper presents a literature review and a summary of previous experimental work on the effect of undercharging or charge degradation of different vapor compression systems, especially those without a receiver. These systems include residentialmore » air conditioning and heat pump systems utilizing different components and refrigerants, and water chiller systems. Most of these studies show similar trends for the effect of charge degradation on system performance. However, it is found that although much experimental work exists on the effect of charge degradation on system performance, no correlation or comparison between charge degradation and system performance yet exists. Thus, based on the literature review, three different correlations that characterize the effect of charge on system capacity and energy consumption are developed for different systems as follows: one for air-conditioning systems, one for vapor compression water-to-water chiller systems, and one for heat pumps. These correlations can be implemented in vapor compression cycle simulation tools to obtain a better prediction of the system performance throughout its lifetime. In this paper, these correlations are implemented in an open source tool for life cycle climate performance (LCCP) based design of vapor compression systems. The LCCP of a residential air-source heat pump is evaluated using the tool and the effect of charge degradation on the results is studied. The heat pump is simulated using a validated component-based vapor compression system model and the LCCP results obtained using the three charge degradation correlations are compared.« less

Climate change and the water cycle in newly irrigated areas.

PubMed

Abrahão, Raphael; García-Garizábal, Iker; Merchán, Daniel; Causapé, Jesús

2015-02-01

Climate change is affecting agriculture doubly: evapotranspiration is increasing due to increments in temperature while the availability of water resources is decreasing. Furthermore, irrigated areas are expanding worldwide. In this study, the dynamics of climate change impacts on the water cycle of a newly irrigated watershed are studied through the calculation of soil water balances. The study area was a 752-ha watershed located on the left side of the Ebro river valley, in Northeast Spain. The soil water balance procedures were carried out throughout 1827 consecutive days (5 years) of hydrological and agronomical monitoring in the study area. Daily data from two agroclimatic stations were used as well. Evaluation of the impact of climate change on the water cycle considered the creation of two future climate scenarios for comparison: 2070 decade with climate change and 2070 decade without climate change. The main indicators studied were precipitation, irrigation, reference evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, drainage from the watershed, and irrigation losses. The aridity index was also applied. The results represent a baseline scenario in which adaptation measures may be included and tested to reduce the impacts of climate change in the studied area and other similar areas.

In and out of glacial extremes by way of dust-climate feedbacks.

PubMed

Shaffer, Gary; Lambert, Fabrice

2018-02-27

Mineral dust aerosols cool Earth directly by scattering incoming solar radiation and indirectly by affecting clouds and biogeochemical cycles. Recent Earth history has featured quasi-100,000-y, glacial-interglacial climate cycles with lower/higher temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations during glacials/interglacials. Global average, glacial maxima dust levels were more than 3 times higher than during interglacials, thereby contributing to glacial cooling. However, the timing, strength, and overall role of dust-climate feedbacks over these cycles remain unclear. Here we use dust deposition data and temperature reconstructions from ice sheet, ocean sediment, and land archives to construct dust-climate relationships. Although absolute dust deposition rates vary greatly among these archives, they all exhibit striking, nonlinear increases toward coldest glacial conditions. From these relationships and reconstructed temperature time series, we diagnose glacial-interglacial time series of dust radiative forcing and iron fertilization of ocean biota, and use these time series to force Earth system model simulations. The results of these simulations show that dust-climate feedbacks, perhaps set off by orbital forcing, push the system in and out of extreme cold conditions such as glacial maxima. Without these dust effects, glacial temperature and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations would have been much more stable at higher, intermediate glacial levels. The structure of residual anomalies over the glacial-interglacial climate cycles after subtraction of dust effects provides constraints for the strength and timing of other processes governing these cycles. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

In and out of glacial extremes by way of dust‑climate feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaffer, Gary; Lambert, Fabrice

2018-03-01

Mineral dust aerosols cool Earth directly by scattering incoming solar radiation and indirectly by affecting clouds and biogeochemical cycles. Recent Earth history has featured quasi-100,000-y, glacial‑interglacial climate cycles with lower/higher temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations during glacials/interglacials. Global average, glacial maxima dust levels were more than 3 times higher than during interglacials, thereby contributing to glacial cooling. However, the timing, strength, and overall role of dust‑climate feedbacks over these cycles remain unclear. Here we use dust deposition data and temperature reconstructions from ice sheet, ocean sediment, and land archives to construct dust‑climate relationships. Although absolute dust deposition rates vary greatly among these archives, they all exhibit striking, nonlinear increases toward coldest glacial conditions. From these relationships and reconstructed temperature time series, we diagnose glacial‑interglacial time series of dust radiative forcing and iron fertilization of ocean biota, and use these time series to force Earth system model simulations. The results of these simulations show that dust‑climate feedbacks, perhaps set off by orbital forcing, push the system in and out of extreme cold conditions such as glacial maxima. Without these dust effects, glacial temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations would have been much more stable at higher, intermediate glacial levels. The structure of residual anomalies over the glacial‑interglacial climate cycles after subtraction of dust effects provides constraints for the strength and timing of other processes governing these cycles.

In and out of glacial extremes by way of dust−climate feedbacks

PubMed Central

Lambert, Fabrice

2018-01-01

Mineral dust aerosols cool Earth directly by scattering incoming solar radiation and indirectly by affecting clouds and biogeochemical cycles. Recent Earth history has featured quasi-100,000-y, glacial−interglacial climate cycles with lower/higher temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations during glacials/interglacials. Global average, glacial maxima dust levels were more than 3 times higher than during interglacials, thereby contributing to glacial cooling. However, the timing, strength, and overall role of dust−climate feedbacks over these cycles remain unclear. Here we use dust deposition data and temperature reconstructions from ice sheet, ocean sediment, and land archives to construct dust−climate relationships. Although absolute dust deposition rates vary greatly among these archives, they all exhibit striking, nonlinear increases toward coldest glacial conditions. From these relationships and reconstructed temperature time series, we diagnose glacial−interglacial time series of dust radiative forcing and iron fertilization of ocean biota, and use these time series to force Earth system model simulations. The results of these simulations show that dust−climate feedbacks, perhaps set off by orbital forcing, push the system in and out of extreme cold conditions such as glacial maxima. Without these dust effects, glacial temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations would have been much more stable at higher, intermediate glacial levels. The structure of residual anomalies over the glacial−interglacial climate cycles after subtraction of dust effects provides constraints for the strength and timing of other processes governing these cycles. PMID:29440407

Climate change and wildlife health: direct and indirect effects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hofmeister, Erik K.; Moede Rogall, Gail; Wesenberg, Katherine; Abbott, Rachel C.; Work, Thierry M.; Schuler, Krysten; Sleeman, Jonathan M.; Winton, James

2010-01-01

Climate change, habitat destruction and urbanization, the introduction of exotic and invasive species, and pollution—all affect ecosystem and human health. Climate change can also be viewed within the context of other physical and climate cycles, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (El Niño), the North Atlantic Oscillation, and cycles in solar radiation that have profound effects on the Earth’s climate. The effects of climate change on wildlife disease are summarized in several areas of scientific study discussed briefly below: geographic range and distribution of wildlife diseases, plant and animal phenology (Walther and others, 2002), and patterns of wildlife disease, community and ecosystem composition, and habitat degradation.

Data Requirements for Ceiling and Visibility Products Development

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-04-13

and Water - Cycle Experiment (GEWEX), STORM 1, and the Naval Research Laboratory’s Coastal Me- teorology Accelerated Research Initiative field... Water - Cycle Experiment HPCN High Plains Climate Network lOP Intensive Observation Period ICN Illinois Climate Network ITWS Integrated Terminal Weather

Climate Cycles and Forecasts of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis, a Nonstationary Vector-Borne Disease

PubMed Central

Chaves, Luis Fernando; Pascual, Mercedes

2006-01-01

Background Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is one of the main emergent diseases in the Americas. As in other vector-transmitted diseases, its transmission is sensitive to the physical environment, but no study has addressed the nonstationary nature of such relationships or the interannual patterns of cycling of the disease. Methods and Findings We studied monthly data, spanning from 1991 to 2001, of CL incidence in Costa Rica using several approaches for nonstationary time series analysis in order to ensure robustness in the description of CL's cycles. Interannual cycles of the disease and the association of these cycles to climate variables were described using frequency and time-frequency techniques for time series analysis. We fitted linear models to the data using climatic predictors, and tested forecasting accuracy for several intervals of time. Forecasts were evaluated using “out of fit” data (i.e., data not used to fit the models). We showed that CL has cycles of approximately 3 y that are coherent with those of temperature and El Niño Southern Oscillation indices (Sea Surface Temperature 4 and Multivariate ENSO Index). Conclusions Linear models using temperature and MEI can predict satisfactorily CL incidence dynamics up to 12 mo ahead, with an accuracy that varies from 72% to 77% depending on prediction time. They clearly outperform simpler models with no climate predictors, a finding that further supports a dynamical link between the disease and climate. PMID:16903778

Climate specific thermomechanical fatigue of flat plate photovoltaic module solder joints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bosco, Nick; Silverman, Timothy J.; Kurtz, Sarah

FEM simulations of PbSn solder fatigue damage are used to evaluate seven cities that represent a variety of climatic zones. It is shown that the rate of solder fatigue damage is not ranked with the cities' climate designations. For an accurate ranking, the mean maximum daily temperature, daily temperature change and a characteristic of clouding events are all required. A physics-based empirical equation is presented that accurately calculates solder fatigue damage according to these three factors. An FEM comparison of solder damage accumulated through service and thermal cycling demonstrates the number of cycles required for an equivalent exposure. For anmore » equivalent 25-year exposure, the number of thermal cycles (-40 degrees C to 85 degrees C) required ranged from roughly 100 to 630 for the cities examined. It is demonstrated that increasing the maximum cycle temperature may significantly reduce the number of thermal cycles required for an equivalent exposure.« less

Effects of local and large-scale climate patterns on estuarine resident fishes: The example of Pomatoschistus microps and Pomatoschistus minutus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyitrai, Daniel; Martinho, Filipe; Dolbeth, Marina; Rito, João; Pardal, Miguel A.

2013-12-01

Large-scale and local climate patterns are known to influence several aspects of the life cycle of marine fish. In this paper, we used a 9-year database (2003-2011) to analyse the populations of two estuarine resident fishes, Pomatoschistus microps and Pomatoschistus minutus, in order to determine their relationships with varying environmental stressors operating over local and large scales. This study was performed in the Mondego estuary, Portugal. Firstly, the variations in abundance, growth, population structure and secondary production were evaluated. These species appeared in high densities in the beginning of the study period, with subsequent occasional high annual density peaks, while their secondary production was lower in dry years. The relationships between yearly fish abundance and the environmental variables were evaluated separately for both species using Spearman correlation analysis, considering the yearly abundance peaks for the whole population, juveniles and adults. Among the local climate patterns, precipitation, river runoff, salinity and temperature were used in the analyses, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and sea surface temperature (SST) were tested as large-scale factors. For P. microps, precipitation and NAO were the significant factors explaining abundance of the whole population, the adults and the juveniles as well. Regarding P. minutus, for the whole population, juveniles and adults river runoff was the significant predictor. The results for both species suggest a differential influence of climate patterns on the various life cycle stages, confirming also the importance of estuarine resident fishes as indicators of changes in local and large-scale climate patterns, related to global climate change.

Millennial-scale Climate Variations Recorded As Far Back As The Early Pliocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steenbrink, J.; Hilgen, F. J.; Lourens, L. J.

Quaternary climate proxy records show compelling evidence for climate variability on time scales of a few thousand years. The causes for these millennial-scale or sub- Milankovitch cycles are yet poorly understood, not in the least due to the complex feedback mechanisms of large ice-sheets during the Quaternary. We present evidence of millennial-scale climate variability in Early Pliocene lacustrine sediments from the intramontane Ptolemais Basin in northwestern Greece. The sediments are well ex- posed in a series of open-pit lignite mines and exhibit a distinct m-scale sedimentary cyclicity of alternating lignites and lacustrine marl beds that result from precession- induced variations in climate. A higher-frequency cyclicity is particular prominent within the marl segment of individual cycles. A stratigraphic interval of~115 kyr, cov- ering five precession-induced sedimentary cycles, was studied in nine parallel sections from two quarries located several km apart. Colour reflectance records were used to quantify the within-cycle variability and to determine its lateral continuity. Much of the within-cycle variability could be correlated between the parallel sections, even in fine detail, which suggests that these changes reflect basin-wide variations in environ- mental conditions related to (regional) climate fluctuations. Interbedded volcanic ash beds demonstrate the synchronicity of these fluctuations and spectral analysis of the reflectance time series shows a significant concentration of variability at periods of ~11,~5.5 and~2 kyr. Their occurrence at times before the intensification of the North- ern Hemisphere glaciation suggests that they cannot solely have resulted from internal ice-sheet dynamics. Possible candidates include harmonics or combination tones of the main orbital cycles, variations in solar output or periodic motions of the Earth and moon.

Differential sensitivity to climate change of C and N cycling processes across soil horizons in a northern hardwood forest

Treesearch

Jorge Durán; Jennifer L. Morse; Alexandra Rodríguez; John L. Campbell; Lynn M. Christenson; Charles T. Driscoll; Timothy J. Fahey; Melany C. Fisk; Myron J. Mitchell; Pamela H. Templer; Peter M. Groffman

2017-01-01

Climate of the northern hardwood forests of North America will become significantly warmer in the coming decades. Associated increases in soil temperature, decreases in water availability and changes in winter snow pack and soil frost are likely to affect soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling. Most studies of the effects of climate change on soil function have...

High Resolution Climate Modeling of the Water Cycle over the Western United States Including Potential Climate Change Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, R.; Liu, C.; Ikeda, K.

2016-12-01

The NCAR Water System program strives to improve the full representation of the water cycle in both regional and global models. Our previous high-resolution simulations using the WRF model over the Rocky Mountains revealed that proper spatial and temporal depiction of snowfall adequate for water resource and climate change purposes can be achieved with the appropriate choice of model grid spacing (< 6 km horizontal) and parameterizations. The climate sensitivity experiment consistent with expected climate change showed an altered hydrological cycle with increased fraction of rain versus snow, increased snowfall at high altitudes, earlier melting of snowpack, and decreased total runoff. In order to investigate regional differences between the Rockies and other major mountain barriers and to study climate change impacts over other regions of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS), we have expanded our prior CO Headwaters modeling study to encompass most of North America at a horizontal grid spacing of 4 km (see figure below). A domain expansion provides the opportunity to assess changes in orographic precipitation across different mountain ranges in the western USA. This study will examine the water cycle over Western U.S. seven U.S. mountain ranges, including likely changes to amount of snowpack and spring melt-off, critical to agriculture in the western U.S.

Climate stability of habitable Earth-like planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menou, Kristen

2015-11-01

The carbon-silicate cycle regulates the atmospheric CO2 content of terrestrial planets on geological timescales through a balance between the rates of CO2 volcanic outgassing and planetary intake from rock weathering. It is thought to act as an efficient climatic thermostat on Earth and, by extension, on other habitable planets. If, however, the weathering rate increases with the atmospheric CO2 content, as expected on planets lacking land vascular plants, the carbon-silicate cycle feedback can become severely limited. Here we show that Earth-like planets receiving less sunlight than current Earth may no longer possess a stable warm climate but instead repeatedly cycle between unstable glaciated and deglaciated climatic states. This has implications for the search for life on exoplanets in the habitable zone of nearby stars.

[New infectious diseases in Finland--caused by climate change?].

PubMed

Vapalahti, Olli; Ruuhela, Reija; Henttonen, Heikki

2012-01-01

Although the appearance and spreading of most new infectious diseases are likely to be due to globalization or socio-economic changes, the occurrence of tick-, insect- and rodent-borne infections is at least partially dependent on climate variability and change. Climate influences the distribution and life cycle of vectors of arthropod-borne viruses as well as viral evolution and efficacy of transmission. The natural circulation of many pathogens and the development of epidemics are dependent on complex ecological factors, such as biodiversity and predator-prey cycles that in turn are indirectly linked to climate.

Subalpine Forest Carbon Cycling Short- and Long-Term Influence ofClimate and Species

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kueppers, L.; Harte, J.

2005-08-23

Ecosystem carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change comprise one of the largest remaining sources of uncertainty in global model predictions of future climate. Both direct climate effects on carbon cycling and indirect effects via climate-induced shifts in species composition may alter ecosystem carbon balance over the long term. In the short term, climate effects on carbon cycling may be mediated by ecosystem species composition. We used an elevational climate and tree species composition gradient in Rocky Mountain subalpine forest to quantify the sensitivity of all major ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes to these factors. The climate sensitivities of carbon fluxesmore » were species-specific in the cases of relative above ground productivity and litter decomposition, whereas the climate sensitivity of dead wood decay did not differ between species, and total annual soil CO2 flux showed no strong climate trend. Lodge pole pine relative productivity increased with warmer temperatures and earlier snowmelt, while Engelmann spruce relative productivity was insensitive to climate variables. Engelmann spruce needle decomposition decreased linearly with increasing temperature(decreasing litter moisture), while lodgepole pine and subalpine fir needle decay showed a hump-shaped temperature response. We also found that total ecosystem carbon declined by 50 percent with a 2.88C increase in mean annual temperature and a concurrent 63 percent decrease ingrowing season soil moisture, primarily due to large declines in mineral soil and dead wood carbon. We detected no independent effect of species composition on ecosystem C stocks. Overall, our carbon flux results suggest that, in the short term, any change in subalpine forest net carbon balance will depend on the specific climate scenario and spatial distribution of tree species. Over the long term, our carbon stock results suggest that with regional warming and drying, Rocky Mountain subalpine forest will be a net source of carbon to the atmosphere.« less

Global patterns of foliar nitrogen isotopes and their relationships with climate, mycorrhizal fungi, foliar nutrient concentrations, and nitrogen availability

Treesearch

Joseph M. Craine; Andrew J. Elmore; Marcos P. M. Aidar; Mercedes Bustamante; Todd E. Dawson; Erik A. Hobbie; Ansgar Kahmen; Michelle C. Mack; Kendra K. McLauchlan; Anders Michelsen; Gabriela Nardoto; Linda H. Pardo; Josep Penuelas; Peter B. Reich; Edward A.G. Schuur; William D. Stock; Pamela H. Templer; Ross A. Virginia; Jeffrey M. Welker; Ian J. Wright

2009-01-01

Ratios of nitrogen (N) isotopes in leaves could elucidate underlying patterns of N cycling across ecological gradients. To better understand global-scale patterns of N cycling, we compiled data on foliar N isotope ratios, foliar N concentrations, mycorrhizal type and climate for over 11 000 plants worldwide. Global-scale comparisons of other components of the N cycle...

Millennial-scale climate variations recorded in Early Pliocene colour reflectance time series from the lacustrine Ptolemais Basin (NW Greece)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steenbrink, J.; Kloosterboer-van Hoeve, M. L.; Hilgen, F. J.

2003-03-01

Quaternary climate proxy records show compelling evidence for climate variability on time scales of a few thousand years. The causes for these millennial-scale or sub-Milankovitch cycles are still poorly understood, not least due to the complex feedback mechanisms of large ice sheets during the Quaternary. We present evidence of millennial-scale climate variability in Early Pliocene lacustrine sediments from the intramontane Ptolemais Basin in northwestern Greece. The sediments are well exposed in a series of open-pit lignite mines and exhibit a distinct millennial-scale sedimentary cyclicity of alternating lignites and lacustrine marl beds that resulted from precession-induced variations in climate. The higher-frequency, millennial-scale cyclicity is particularly prominent within the grey-coloured marl segment of individual cycles. A stratigraphic interval of ˜115 ka, covering five precession-induced sedimentary cycles, was studied in nine parallel sections from two open-pit lignite mines located several km apart. High-resolution colour reflectance records were used to quantify the within-cycle variability and to determine its lateral continuity. Much of the within-cycle variability could be correlated between the parallel sections, even in fine detail, which suggests that these changes reflect basin-wide variations in environmental conditions related to (regional) climate fluctuations. Interbedded volcanic ash beds demonstrate the synchronicity of these fluctuations and spectral analysis of the reflectance time series shows a significant concentration of within-cycle variability at periods of ˜11, ˜5.5 and ˜2 ka. The occurrence of variability at such time scales at times before the intensification of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation suggests that they cannot solely have resulted from internal ice-sheet dynamics. Possible candidates include harmonics or combination tones of the main orbital cycles, variations in solar output or periodic motions of the Earth and Moon.

Global covariation of carbon turnover times with climate in terrestrial ecosystems.

PubMed

Carvalhais, Nuno; Forkel, Matthias; Khomik, Myroslava; Bellarby, Jessica; Jung, Martin; Migliavacca, Mirco; Mu, Mingquan; Saatchi, Sassan; Santoro, Maurizio; Thurner, Martin; Weber, Ulrich; Ahrens, Bernhard; Beer, Christian; Cescatti, Alessandro; Randerson, James T; Reichstein, Markus

2014-10-09

The response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to climate change is among the largest uncertainties affecting future climate change projections. The feedback between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate is partly determined by changes in the turnover time of carbon in land ecosystems, which in turn is an ecosystem property that emerges from the interplay between climate, soil and vegetation type. Here we present a global, spatially explicit and observation-based assessment of whole-ecosystem carbon turnover times that combines new estimates of vegetation and soil organic carbon stocks and fluxes. We find that the overall mean global carbon turnover time is 23(+7)(-4) years (95 per cent confidence interval). On average, carbon resides in the vegetation and soil near the Equator for a shorter time than at latitudes north of 75° north (mean turnover times of 15 and 255 years, respectively). We identify a clear dependence of the turnover time on temperature, as expected from our present understanding of temperature controls on ecosystem dynamics. Surprisingly, our analysis also reveals a similarly strong association between turnover time and precipitation. Moreover, we find that the ecosystem carbon turnover times simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate/carbon-cycle models vary widely and that numerical simulations, on average, tend to underestimate the global carbon turnover time by 36 per cent. The models show stronger spatial relationships with temperature than do observation-based estimates, but generally do not reproduce the strong relationships with precipitation and predict faster carbon turnover in many semi-arid regions. Our findings suggest that future climate/carbon-cycle feedbacks may depend more strongly on changes in the hydrological cycle than is expected at present and is considered in Earth system models.

Ocean salinities reveal strong global water cycle intensification during 1950 to 2000.

PubMed

Durack, Paul J; Wijffels, Susan E; Matear, Richard J

2012-04-27

Fundamental thermodynamics and climate models suggest that dry regions will become drier and wet regions will become wetter in response to warming. Efforts to detect this long-term response in sparse surface observations of rainfall and evaporation remain ambiguous. We show that ocean salinity patterns express an identifiable fingerprint of an intensifying water cycle. Our 50-year observed global surface salinity changes, combined with changes from global climate models, present robust evidence of an intensified global water cycle at a rate of 8 ± 5% per degree of surface warming. This rate is double the response projected by current-generation climate models and suggests that a substantial (16 to 24%) intensification of the global water cycle will occur in a future 2° to 3° warmer world.

Past climate variability inferred from statistical processing of documentary data: a case study on extreme meteorological events in western central France from 1500 to 2000 AD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poirier, Clément; Chaumillon, Eric; Audé, Jean-Luc

2010-05-01

Recent human-induced climate changes are expected to have an impact on extreme events including shifts in storm tracks, heavier precipitations and more severe droughts (Planton, 2008). Although climate models successfully describe the past mean climate variability, they often fail to correctly reproduce such extreme events, mainly because of a low spatial and temporal resolution (Sánchez et al., 2004). Reports of extreme meteorological events gathered from documentary archives are be useful to fill this gap, and would also provide insights into local climatic variations (Leijonhufvud et al., 2008; Rodrigo, 2008; Wheeler, 2006). In this study, a local text book published by Audé (2006) was used as a source of climatic data. It consists of a list of extreme meteorological events recorded in historical archives (diaries mainly) in western central France, along the Bay of Biscay. From the book, 284 extreme meteorological events that occurred between 1500 and 2000 were selected. A presence-absence matrix was built, the events being classified in 7 distinct categories by Audé. A preliminary multivariate analysis (Principal Component Analysis) was used to group these categories into 4 classes of events. First axis (22.3% of explained variance) discriminated the events related to temperature, with frosts and snowfalls on one side, versus gales and storms on the other side. Second axis (18.5% of explained variance) discriminated the events related to precipitation, with floods and rainfalls on one side (humid), versus droughts on the other (dry). For each class, a 29-year running mean was computed to convert binary qualitative data to semi-quantitative curves. A spectral analysis was also performed on the same binary data to detect potential climatic cycles. Despite the randomness of the historical records reported in this book, that much relies on the subjective perception of meteorological events by past witnesses, the results obtained are consistent with existing data about past climate changes since 1500 AD. Temperature-related events show a significant negative correlation (R2 = -0.49, p = 0) with δ14C curve (Reimer et al., 2004), whereas precipitation-related events show a significant positive correlation (R2 = 0.66, p = 0) with the same curve. As an example, recurrent flood and rainfall events occurred from 1630 to 1720 and from 1800 to 1830, which corresponds to the Maunder and Dalton periods of minimum solar activity respectively. Spectral analysis carried out on the 4 classes of events revealed several cycles in the data, in particular a 11 year cycle that corresponds to the Schwabe cycle, and a 85 year cycle that might be related to Gleissberg cycle. The last 150 years display unusual conditions with increasing storms, gales and droughts. The documentary data analysed in the present study might provide interesting information about the consequences of human-induced global warming on extreme meteorological events. They would also be useful as a source of information about local climate variations. References: Audé J.L., 2006. Chronique du climat en Poitou-Charentes Vendée. Lonali Editions, France, 152 pp. Leijonhufvud L., Wilson R., Moberg A. 2008. The Holocene 18(2), 333-343 Planton S., Déqué M., Chauvin F., Terray L., 2008. Comptes Rendus Geosciences, 340 (9-10), 564-574. Reimer P.J. et al., 2004. Radiocarbon 46, 1029-1058. Rodrigo F.S., 2008. Climatic Change 87, 471-487. Sánchez E., Gallardo C., Gaertner M.A, Arribas A., Castro M., 2004. Global and Planetary Change 44, 163-180. Wheeler D., 2006. Archives 31, 119-132.

Future local climate unlike currently observed anywhere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahinden, Fabienne; Fischer, Erich M.; Knutti, Reto

2017-08-01

The concept of spatial climate analogs, that is identifying a place with a present-day climate similar to the projections of a place of interest, is a promising method for visualizing and communicating possible effects of climate change. We show that when accounting for seasonal cycles of both temperature and precipitation, it is impossible to find good analogs for projections at many places across the world. For substantial land fractions, primarily in the tropics and subtropics, there are no analogs anywhere with current seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation matching their projected future conditions. This implies that these places experience the emergence of novel climates. For 1.5 °C global warming about 15% and for 2 °C warming about 21% of the global land is projected to experience novel climates, whereas for a 4 °C warming the corresponding novel climates may emerge on more than a third of the global land fraction. Similar fractions of today’s climates, mainly found in the tropics, subtropics and polar north, are anticipated to disappear in the future. Note that the exact quantification of the land fraction is sensitive to the threshold selection. Novel and disappearing climates may have serious consequences for impacts that are sensitive to the full seasonal cycle of temperature and precipitation. For individual seasons, however, spatial analogs may still be a powerful tool for climate change communication.

Climate change, adaptive cycles, and the persistence of foraging economies during the late Pleistocene/Holocene transition in the Levant.

PubMed

Rosen, Arlene M; Rivera-Collazo, Isabel

2012-03-06

Climatic forcing during the Younger Dryas (∼12.9-11.5 ky B.P.) event has become the theoretical basis to explain the origins of agricultural lifestyles in the Levant by suggesting a failure of foraging societies to adjust. This explanation however, does not fit the scarcity of data for predomestication cultivation in the Natufian Period. The resilience of Younger Dryas foragers is better illustrated by a concept of adaptive cycles within a theory of adaptive change (resilience theory). Such cycles consist of four phases: release/collapse (Ω); reorganization (α), when the system restructures itself after a catastrophic stimulus through innovation and social memory--a period of greater resilience and less vulnerability; exploitation (r); and conservation (K), representing an increasingly rigid system that loses flexibility to change. The Kebarans and Late Natufians had similar responses to cold and dry conditions vs. Early Natufians and the Pre-Pottery Neolithic A responses to warm and wet climates. Kebarans and Late Natufians (α-phase) shifted to a broader-based diet and increased their mobility. Early Natufian and Pre-Pottery Neolithic A populations (r- and K-phases) had a growing investment in more narrowly focused, high-yield plant resources, but they maintained the broad range of hunted animals because of increased sedentism. These human adaptive cycles interlocked with plant and animal cycles. Forest and grassland vegetation responded to late Pleistocene and early Holocene climatic fluctuations, but prey animal cycles reflected the impact of human hunting pressure. The combination of these three adaptive cycles results in a model of human adaptation, showing potential for great sustainability of Levantine foraging systems even under adverse climatic conditions.

INTERACTIONS OF CHANGING CLIMATE AND ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION IN AQUATIC AND TERRESTRIAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES

EPA Science Inventory

During the past decade interest has developed in the interactive effects of climate change and UV radiation on aquatic and terrestrial biogeochemical cycles. This talk used selected case studies to illustrate approaches that are being used to investigate these intriguing processe...

The Contribution of Soils to North America's Current and Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayes, M. A.; Reed, S.; Thornton, P. E.; Lajtha, K.; Bailey, V. L.; Shrestha, G.; Jastrow, J. D.; Torn, M. S.

2015-12-01

This presentation will cover key aspects of the terrestrial soil carbon cycle in North America and the US for the upcoming State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCRII). SOCCRII seeks to summarize how natural processes and human interactions affect the global carbon cycle, how socio-economic trends affect greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, and how ecosystems are influenced by and respond to greenhouse gas emissions, management decisions, and concomitant climate effects. Here, we will summarize the contemporary understanding of carbon stocks, fluxes, and drivers in the soil ecosystem compartment. We will highlight recent advances in modeling the magnitude of soil carbon stocks and fluxes, as well as the importance of remaining uncertainties in predicting soil carbon cycling and its relationship with climate. Attention will be given to the role of uncertainties in predicting future fluxes from soils, and how those uncertainties vary by region and ecosystem. We will also address how climate feedbacks and management decisions can enhance or minimize future climatic effects based on current understanding and observations, and will highlight select research needs to improve our understanding of the balance of carbon in soils in North America.

Hydrological and biogeochemical constraints on terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mystakidis, Stefanos; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Gruber, Nicolas; Davin, Edouard L.

2017-01-01

The feedbacks between climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration and the terrestrial carbon cycle are a major source of uncertainty in future climate projections with Earth systems models. Here, we use observation-based estimates of the interannual variations in evapotranspiration (ET), net biome productivity (NBP), as well as the present-day sensitivity of NBP to climate variations, to constrain globally the terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks as simulated by models that participated in the fifth phase of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5). The constraints result in a ca. 40% lower response of NBP to climate change and a ca. 30% reduction in the strength of the CO2 fertilization effect relative to the unconstrained multi-model mean. While the unconstrained CMIP5 models suggest an increase in the cumulative terrestrial carbon storage (477 PgC) in response to an idealized scenario of 1%/year atmospheric CO2 increase, the constraints imply a ca. 19% smaller change. Overall, the applied emerging constraint approach offers a possibility to reduce uncertainties in the projections of the terrestrial carbon cycle, which is a key determinant of the future trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentration and resulting climate change.

Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change.

PubMed

Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

2014-03-04

Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future.

Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change

PubMed Central

Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D.; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

2014-01-01

Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future. PMID:24344275

Climate change, carbon, and forestry in northwestern North America: proceedings of a workshop November 14-15, 2001 Orcas Island, Washington.

Treesearch

David L. Peterson; John L. Innes; Kelly O’Brian

2004-01-01

Interactions between forests, climatic change and the Earth’s carbon cycle are complex and represent a challenge for forest managers – they are integral to the sustainable management of forests. In this volume, a number of papers are presented that describe some of the complex relationships between climate, the global carbon cycle and forests. Research has demonstrated...

Postglacial diatom-climate responses in a small lake in the Pacific Northwest of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egan, J.; Allott, T. E.; Fletcher, W.

2017-12-01

Understanding the variability of ocean-atmosphere interactions in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) of North America is essential for climate forecasting, particularly variations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Research suggests that global warming is increasing the frequency of extreme El Niño events, which can have global climatic impacts (e.g. disrupting global weather patterns, affecting ecosystems and agriculture and extreme weather events (flood, drought, bushfires)). A diatom record spanning 14,500 Cal yr BP from Moss Lake, Washington is used to assess Holocene climate change in the PNW including evidence for periodicities related to ocean-atmosphere interactions and/or variations in solar output, and is directly compared to the Moss Lake pollen record. Three climate phases were identified: 1) the Late Pleistocene (until 11,800 Cal yr BP), with a cold climate evidenced by the low abundance of diatoms; 2) the early to mid-Holocene (11,800 - 7500 Cal yr BP), with warm climate, longer growing seasons and shorter periods of ice cover, indicated by the increase of Cyclotella pseudostelligera and decrease of Fragilaria taxa; and 3) the mid-to-late Holocene from 7500 Cal yr BP onwards, with a cooler climate reflected by a decrease in Cyclotella pseudostelligera and an increase in Fragilaria taxa. These climate shifts correlate with the regional and local pollen record. Fluctuations in Cyclotella pseudostelligera and Aulacoseira taxa suggest climatic cycles of varying amplitude throughout. RedFit and Wavelet analyses revealed periodicities of approximately 2000, 1300, and 450 yrs. The 2000 yr cycle is attributed to solar variation; the Hallstatt Oscillation. The 1300 yr and 450 yr cycles are attributed to ENSO and PDO like cycles. The 1300 periodicity is evident throughout the Late Pleistocene and Holocene and reflects shifts from El Niño/positive PDO (weak wind intensity, warm temperature) to La Niña/Negative PDO (high wind intensity, cool temperature). Between 11,800 and 7500 Cal yr BP the cycle amplitudes are reduced and frequency increased reflecting the 450 yr periodicity. Diatom data from Moss Lake provide a sensitive record of climate-related limnological responses and refine our understanding of Holocene climate change in the PNW.

Climatic controls on Pennsylvanian sequences, United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cecil, C.B.; Dulong, F.T.; Edgar, N.T.

1996-08-01

Temporal and spatial paleoclimate changes were primary controls on changes in sediment supply, both siliciclastic and chemical, in Pennsylvanian deposystems of the United States. Tectonic and eustatic processes, as well as climatically induced changes in sediment supply, controlled accommodation space and sequence stratigraphy within these deposystems. Interbasinal correlations of lithologies sensitive to climate, such as coeval paleosols, provide continental-scale records of climatic and eustatic conditions. Pennsylvanian bio- and lithostratigraphy are indicative of climate change at time scales that range from long-term (tens of millions of years) as Pangea formed and North America moved northward through the paleoequator, to intermediate-term hundredmore » thousand year cycles controlled by orbital forcing, to very short-term events perhaps analogous to El Nino. Because of proximity to the humid tropics, the long-term climate of eastern basins of the United States was generally wetter than western basins. In the east, pluvial parts of climate cycles occur during low-stand events and are recorded by intense chemical weathering, high terrestrial organic productivity, restricted erosion, and siliciclastic sediment starvation. These conditions resulted in highly leached mineral paleosols (Ultisols) and coal beds (Histosols) of interbasinal extent. Drier parts of climate cycles in the east occurred during highstands of sea level when erosion and siliciclastic transport were maximum. In the western basins pluvial periods are generally indicated by shifts from eolian to fluvial and lacustrine sedimentary regimes in continental environments and from evaporate and carbonate to siliciclastic deposition, including black shale petroleum source rocks, in marine environments. Tectonics controlled basin development and glacial eustasy controlled sea level cycles. Climate, however, was the primary control on sediment supply and lithostratigraphy.« less

The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: relevance to climate-change policy beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases.

PubMed

Pielke, Roger A; Marland, Gregg; Betts, Richard A; Chase, Thomas N; Eastman, Joseph L; Niles, John O; Niyogi, Dev Dutta S; Running, Steven W

2002-08-15

Our paper documents that land-use change impacts regional and global climate through the surface-energy budget, as well as through the carbon cycle. The surface-energy budget effects may be more important than the carbon-cycle effects. However, land-use impacts on climate cannot be adequately quantified with the usual metric of 'global warming potential'. A new metric is needed to quantify the human disturbance of the Earth's surface-energy budget. This 'regional climate change potential' could offer a new metric for developing a more inclusive climate protocol. This concept would also implicitly provide a mechanism to monitor potential local-scale environmental changes that could influence biodiversity.

The role of ecosystem-atmosphere interactions in simulated Amazonian precipitation decrease and forest dieback under global climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betts, R. A.; Cox, P. M.; Collins, M.; Harris, P. P.; Huntingford, C.; Jones, C. D.

A suite of simulations with the HadCM3LC coupled climate-carbon cycle model is used to examine the various forcings and feedbacks involved in the simulated precipitation decrease and forest dieback. Rising atmospheric CO2 is found to contribute 20% to the precipitation reduction through the physiological forcing of stomatal closure, with 80% of the reduction being seen when stomatal closure was excluded and only radiative forcing by CO2 was included. The forest dieback exerts two positive feedbacks on the precipitation reduction; a biogeophysical feedback through reduced forest cover suppressing local evaporative water recycling, and a biogeochemical feedback through the release of CO2 contributing to an accelerated global warming. The precipitation reduction is enhanced by 20% by the biogeophysical feedback, and 5% by the carbon cycle feedback from the forest dieback. This analysis helps to explain why the Amazonian precipitation reduction simulated by HadCM3LC is more extreme than that simulated in other GCMs; in the fully-coupled, climate-carbon cycle simulation, approximately half of the precipitation reduction in Amazonia is attributable to a combination of physiological forcing and biogeophysical and global carbon cycle feedbacks, which are generally not included in other GCM simulations of future climate change. The analysis also demonstrates the potential contribution of regional-scale climate and ecosystem change to uncertainties in global CO2 and climate change projections. Moreover, the importance of feedbacks suggests that a human-induced increase in forest vulnerability to climate change may have implications for regional and global scale climate sensitivity.

Multi-hazard risk analysis using the FP7 RASOR Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koudogbo, Fifamè N.; Duro, Javier; Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Eddy, Andrew

2014-10-01

Climate change challenges our understanding of risk by modifying hazards and their interactions. Sudden increases in population and rapid urbanization are changing exposure to risk around the globe, making impacts harder to predict. Despite the availability of operational mapping products, there is no single tool to integrate diverse data and products across hazards, update exposure data quickly and make scenario-based predictions to support both short and long-term risk-related decisions. RASOR (Rapid Analysis and Spatialization Of Risk) will develop a platform to perform multi-hazard risk analysis for the full cycle of disaster management, including targeted support to critical infrastructure monitoring and climate change impact assessment. A scenario-driven query system simulates future scenarios based on existing or assumed conditions and compares them with historical scenarios. RASOR will thus offer a single work environment that generates new risk information across hazards, across data types (satellite EO, in-situ), across user communities (global, local, climate, civil protection, insurance, etc.) and across the world. Five case study areas are considered within the project, located in Haiti, Indonesia, Netherlands, Italy and Greece. Initially available over those demonstration areas, RASOR will ultimately offer global services to support in-depth risk assessment and full-cycle risk management.

Exploring diurnal and seasonal characteristics of global carbon cycle with GISS Model E2 GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleinov, I. D.; Kiang, N. Y.; Romanou, A.

2017-12-01

The ability to properly model surface carbon fluxes on the diurnal and seasonal time scale is a necessary requirement for understanding of the global carbon cycle. It is also one of the most challenging tasks faced by modern General Circulation Models (GCMs) due to complexity of the algorithms and variety of relevant spatial and temporal scales. The observational data, though abundant, is difficult to interpret at the global scale, because flux tower observations are very sparse for large impact areas (such as Amazon and African rainforest and most of Siberia) and satellite missions often struggle to produce sufficiently high confidence data over the land and may be missing CO2 amounts near the surface due to the nature of the method. In this work we use the GISS Model E2 GCM to perform a subset of experiments proposed by the Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) and relate the results to available observations.The GISS Model E2 GCM is currently equipped with a complete global carbon cycle algorithm. Its surface carbon fluxes are computed by the Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM) over the land with observed leaf area index of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) and by the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM) over the ocean. The propagation of atmospheric CO2 is performed by a generic Model E2 tracer algorithm, which is based on a quadratic upstream method (Prather 1986). We perform a series spin-up experiments for preindustrial climate conditions and fixed preindustrial atmospheric CO2 concentration. First, we perform separate spin-up simulations each for terrestrial and ocean carbon. We then combine the spun-up states and perform a coupled spin-up simulation until the model reaches a sufficient equilibrium. We then release restrictions on CO2 concentration and allow it evolve freely, driven only by simulated surface fluxes. We then study the results of the unforced run, comparing the amplitude and the phase of diurnal and seasonal variation of atmospheric CO2 concentration to selected flux tower observations and OCO-2 satellite datasets.

Projected Changes to Streamflow Characteristics in Quebec Basins as Simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM4)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huziy, O.; Sushama, L.; Khaliq, M.; Lehner, B.; Laprise, R.; Roy, R.

2011-12-01

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007), an intensification of the global hydrological cycle and increase in precipitation for some regions around the world, including the northern mid- to high-latitudes, is expected in future climate. This will have an impact on mean and extreme flow characteristics, which need to be assessed for better development of adaptation strategies. Analysis of the mean and extreme streamflow characteristics for Quebec (North-eastern Canada) basins in current climate and their projected changes in future climate are assessed using a 10 member ensemble of current (1970 - 1999) and future (2041 - 2070) Canadian RCM (CRCM4) simulations. Validation of streamflow characteristics, performed by comparing modeled values with those observed, available from the Centre d'expertise hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ) shows that the model captures reasonably well the high flows. Results suggest increase in mean and 10 year return levels of 1 day high flows, which appear significant for most of the northern basins.

Insights from Modeling the Integrated Climate, Biogeochemical Cycles, Human Activities and Their Interactions in the ACME Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, L. R.; Thornton, P. E.; Riley, W. J.; Calvin, K. V.

2017-12-01

Towards the goal of understanding the contributions from natural and managed systems to current and future greenhouse gas fluxes and carbon-climate and carbon-CO2 feedbacks, efforts have been underway to improve representations of the terrestrial, river, and human components of the ACME earth system model. Broadly, our efforts include implementation and comparison of approaches to represent the nutrient cycles and nutrient limitations on ecosystem production, extending the river transport model to represent sediment and riverine biogeochemistry, and coupling of human systems such as irrigation, reservoir operations, and energy and land use with the ACME land and river components. Numerical experiments have been designed to understand how terrestrial carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles regulate climate system feedbacks and the sensitivity of the feedbacks to different model treatments, examine key processes governing sediment and biogeochemistry in the rivers and their role in the carbon cycle, and exploring the impacts of human systems in perturbing the hydrological and carbon cycles and their interactions. This presentation will briefly introduce the ACME modeling approaches and discuss preliminary results and insights from numerical experiments that lay the foundation for improving understanding of the integrated climate-biogeochemistry-human system.

The role of climate in the global patterns of ecosystem carbon turnover rates - contrasts between data and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvalhais, N.; Forkel, M.; Khomik, M.; Bellarby, J.; Migliavacca, M.; Thurner, M.; Beer, C.; Jung, M.; Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; Saatchi, S. S.; Santoro, M.; Reichstein, M.

2012-12-01

The turnover rates of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems and their sensitivity to climate are instrumental properties for diagnosing the interannual variability and forecasting trends of biogeochemical processes and carbon-cycle-climate feedbacks. We propose to globally look at the spatial distribution of turnover rates of carbon to explore the association between bioclimatic regimes and the rates at which carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. Based on data-driven approaches of ecosystem carbon fluxes and data-based estimates of ecosystem carbon stocks it is possible to build fully observationally supported diagnostics. These data driven diagnostics support the benchmarking of CMIP5 model outputs (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) with observationally based estimates. The models' performance is addressed by confronting spatial patterns of carbon fluxes and stocks with data, as well as the global and regional sensitivities of turnover rates to climate. Our results show strong latitudinal gradients globally, mostly controlled by temperature, which are not always paralleled by CMIP5 simulations. In northern colder regions is also where the largest difference in temperature sensitivity between models and data occurs. Interestingly, there seem to be two different statistical populations in the data (some with high, others with low apparent temperature sensitivity of carbon turnover rates), where the different models only seem to describe either one or the other population. Additionally, the comparisons within bioclimatic classes can even show opposite patterns between turnover rates and temperature in water limited regions. Overall, our analysis emphasizes the role of finding patterns and intrinsic properties instead of plain magnitudes of fluxes for diagnosing the sensitivities of terrestrial biogeochemical cycles to climate. Further, our regional analysis suggests a significant gap in addressing the partial influence of water in the ecosystem carbon turnover rates especially in very cold or water limited regions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dubey, Manvendra; Parket, Harrison; Myers, Katherine

Forests soak up 25% of the carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by anthropogenic fossil energy use (10 Gt C y-1), moderating its atmospheric accumulation. How this terrestrial CO2 uptake will evolve with climate change in the 21st Century is largely unknown. Rainforests are the most active ecosystems, with the Amazon basin storing 120 Gt C as biomass and exchanging 18 Gt C y-1 of CO2 via photosynthesis and respiration and fixing carbon at 2-3 kg C m-2 y-1. Furthermore, the intense hydrologic and carbon cycles are tightly coupled in the Amazon where about half of the water is recycled by evapotranspirationmore » and the other half imported from the ocean by Northeasterly trade winds. Climate models predict a drying in the Amazon with reduced carbon uptake while observationally guided assessments indicate sustained uptake. We set out to resolve this huge discrepancy in the size and sign of the future Amazon carbon cycle by performing the first simultaneous regional-scale high-frequency measurements of atmospheric CO2, H2O, HOD, CH4, N2O, and CO at the T3 site in Manacupuru, Brazil, as part of DOE's GoAmazon 2014/15 project. Our data will be used to inform and develop DOE's Community Land Model (CLM) on the tropical carbon-water couplings at the appropriate grid scale (10-50 km). Our measurements will also validate the CO2 data from Japan's Greenhouse gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) and NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO)-2 satellite (launched in July, 2014). Our data addresses these science questions: 1. How does ecosystem heterogeneity and climate variability influence the rainforest carbon cycle? 2. How well do current tropical ecosystem models simulate the observed regional carbon cycle? 3. Does nitrogen deposition (from the Manaus, Brazil, plume) enhance rainforest carbon uptake?« less

Coverage-dependent amplifiers of vegetation change on global water cycle dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Huihui; Zou, Bin; Luo, Juhua

2017-07-01

The terrestrial water cycle describes the circulation of water worldwide from one store to another via repeated evapotranspiration (E) from land and precipitation (P) back to the surface. The cycle presents significant spatial variability, which is strongly affected by natural climate and anthropogenic influences. As one of the major anthropogenic influences, vegetation change unavoidably alters surface property and subsequent the terrestrial water cycle, while its contribution is yet difficult to isolate from the mixed influences. Here, we use satellite and in-situ datasets to identify the terrestrial water cycle dynamics in spatial detail and to evaluate the impact of vegetation change. Methodologically, the water cycle is identified by the indicator of difference between evapotranspiration and precipitation (E-P). Then the scalar form of the indicator's trend (ΔE + ΔP) is used for evaluating the dynamics of water cycle, with the positive value means acceleration and negative means deceleration. Then, the contributions of climate and vegetation change are isolated by the trajectory-based method. Our results indicate that 4 accelerating and 4 decelerating water cycles can be identified, affecting 42.11% of global land. The major water cycle type is characterized by non-changing precipitation and increasing evapotranspiration (PNO-EIN), which covers 20.88% of globally land. Vegetation change amplifies both accelerating and decelerating water cycles. It tends to intensify the trend of the decelerating water cycles, while climate change weakens the trend. In the accelerating water cycles, both vegetation and climate change present positive effect to intensify the trend. The effect of plant cover change varies with the coverage. In particular, vegetation change intensifies the water cycle in moderately vegetated regions (0.1 < NDVI < 0.6), but weakens the cycle in sparsely or highly vegetated regions (NDVI < 0.1 or 0.6 < NDVI < 0.8). In extremely vegetated regions (NDVI > 0.85), the water cycle is accelerated because of the significant increase of precipitation. We conclude that vegetation change acts as an amplifier for both accelerating and decelerating terrestrial water cycles, depending on the degree of vegetation coverage.

The climate system as a ticking clock

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kerr, R.A.

1990-09-14

Climate researchers are picking up a more or less regular 2-year beat to the global climate system - one that seems to be heard from every quarter. The most recently discovered example of this climatic ticking - and perhaps the most intriguing - comes from the very core of El Nino. Researchers have found that some aspects of this cycle of alternating warm and relatively cold waters along the equatorial Pacific have a tendency to repeat every 2 years. The overlying winds pulsate at the same pace, as do the globe-girdling effects of the El Nino cycle, from winter warmthmore » in Alaska to heavy rains in Peru and drought in Australia. The climatic ticking in the tropical Pacific is hardly as reliable as the changing of the seasons. Sometimes it is muted, and occasionally it skips a beat. But some researchers nevertheless see hope of using it in the prediction of El Nino and its global effects. In any case, climate researchers are eager to determine what makes El Nino tick. The answer could be an underlying pacemaker of this crucial atmospheric cycle.« less

Life-Cycle Assessment of Cookstove Fuels in India and China ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted to compare the environmental footprint of current and possible fuels used for cooking within China and India. Current fuel mix profiles are compared to scenarios of projected differences in and/or cleaner cooking fuels. Results are reported for a suite of relevant life cycle impact assessment indicators: global climate change, energy demand, fossil depletion, water consumption, particulate matter formation, acidification, eutrophication and photochemical smog formation. Traditional fuels demonstrate notably poor relative performance in particulate matter formation, photochemical oxidant formation, freshwater eutrophication, and black carbon emissions. Most fuels demonstrate trade-offs between impact categories. Stove efficiency is found to be a crucial variable determining environmental performance across all impact categories. The study shows that electricity and many of the processed fuels, while yielding emission reductions in homes at the point of use, transfer many of those emissions upstream into the processing and distribution life cycle stage. To conduct LCA study of the cookstove fuels being used in India and China to determine how fuels and stoves compare based on a holistic assessment considering the LCA environmental tradeoffs

Effects of Solar UV Radiation and Climate Change on Biogeochemical Cycling: Interactions and Feedbacks

EPA Science Inventory

Solar UV radiation, climate and other drivers of global change are undergoing significant changes and models forecast that these changes will continue for the remainder of this century. Here we assess the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles and the interactions...

INTERACTIVE EFFECTS OF OZONE DEPLETION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES

EPA Science Inventory

The effects of ozone depletion on global biogeochemical cycles, via increased UV-B radiation at the Earth's surface, have continued to be documented over the past 4 years. In this report we also document various effects of UV-B that interact with global climate change because the...

Scaling Properties and Spatial Interpolation of Soil Moisture

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-08-24

the sensitivities is useful not only for characterizing soil moisture but also for forecasting the vulnerability of a region’s water cycle to climate...regional water balance was presented that can be used to assess the impact of climatic fluctuations and changes on the water cycle of a region. In

The Sun and climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2000-01-01

Many geologic records of climatic and environmental change based on various proxy variables exhibit distinct cyclicities that have been attributed to extraterrestrial forcing. The best known of these are the changes in Earth’s orbital geometry called Milankovitch Cycles, with periodicities of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. However, many cycles seem to have subMilankovitch periodicities, commonly on decadal and centennial scales, similar to those of known solar cycles. A direct connection between solar irradiance (solar constant) and weather and climate has been suggested for more than 100 years but generally rejected by most scientists, who assume that the effect of solar variations would be small. However, recent satellite radiometer measurements and modeling studies indicate that small changes in total solar irradiance could produce global temperature changes of the magnitude suggested for climatic events such as the Little Ice Age (A.D. 1550–1700).

Insolation-driven 100 kyr glacial cycles and millennial climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe-Ouchi, A.; Saito, F.; Kawamura, K.; Raymo, M. E.; Okuno, J.; Takahashi, K.; Blatter, H.

2013-12-01

The waxing and waning of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets over the past one million years is dominated by an approximately 100-kyr periodicity and a sawtooth pattern (gradual growth and fast termination). Milankovitch theory proposes that summer insolation at high northern latitudes drives the glacial cycles, and statistical tests demonstrated that the glacial cycles are indeed linked to eccentricity, obliquity and precession cycles. However, insolation alone cannot explain the strong 100 kyr cycle which presumably arises through internal climatic feedbacks. Prior work with conceptual models, for example, showed that glacial terminations are associated with the build-up of Northern Hemisphere 'excess ice', but the physical mechanisms of 100-kyr cycle at work remain unclear. Here, using comprehensive climate and ice sheet models, we show that the ~100-kyr periodicity is explained by insolation and internal feedback amongst the climate, ice sheet and lithosphere/asthenosphere system (reference). We found that equilibrium states of ice sheets exhibit hysteresis responses to summer insolation, and that the shape and position of the hysteresis loop play a key role in determining the periodicities of glacial cycles. The hysteresis loop of the North American ice sheet is such that, after its inception, the ice sheet mass balance remains mostly positive or neutral through several precession cycles whose amplitude decreases towards an eccentricity minimum. The larger the ice sheet grows and extends towards lower latitudes, the smaller is the insolation required to turn the mass balance to negative. Therefore, once the large ice sheet is established, only a moderate increase in insolation can trigger a negative mass balance, leading to a complete retreat within several thousand years, due to the delayed isostatic rebound. The effect of ocean circulation and millennial scale climate change are not playing the dominant role for determing the 100kyr cycle, but are effective for modifying the speed and geographical pattern of the waxing and waning of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and their melt water. (reference of the basic results: Abe-Ouchi et al, 2013, Insolation-driven 100,000 year glacial cycles and hysteresis of ice-sheet volume, Nature, 500, 190-193.)

Centennial-scale Holocene climate variations amplified by Antarctic Ice Sheet discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakker, Pepijn; Clark, Peter U.; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Schmittner, Andreas; Weber, Michael E.

2017-01-01

Proxy-based indicators of past climate change show that current global climate models systematically underestimate Holocene-epoch climate variability on centennial to multi-millennial timescales, with the mismatch increasing for longer periods. Proposed explanations for the discrepancy include ocean-atmosphere coupling that is too weak in models, insufficient energy cascades from smaller to larger spatial and temporal scales, or that global climate models do not consider slow climate feedbacks related to the carbon cycle or interactions between ice sheets and climate. Such interactions, however, are known to have strongly affected centennial- to orbital-scale climate variability during past glaciations, and are likely to be important in future climate change. Here we show that fluctuations in Antarctic Ice Sheet discharge caused by relatively small changes in subsurface ocean temperature can amplify multi-centennial climate variability regionally and globally, suggesting that a dynamic Antarctic Ice Sheet may have driven climate fluctuations during the Holocene. We analysed high-temporal-resolution records of iceberg-rafted debris derived from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and performed both high-spatial-resolution ice-sheet modelling of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and multi-millennial global climate model simulations. Ice-sheet responses to decadal-scale ocean forcing appear to be less important, possibly indicating that the future response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet will be governed more by long-term anthropogenic warming combined with multi-centennial natural variability than by annual or decadal climate oscillations.

Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models with atmospheric CO2 measurements: Results from transient simulations considering increasing CO2, climate, and land-use effects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dargaville, R.J.; Heimann, Martin; McGuire, A.D.; Prentice, I.C.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Joos, F.; Clein, Joy S.; Esser, G.; Foley, J.; Kaplan, J.; Meier, R.A.; Melillo, J.M.; Moore, B.; Ramankutty, N.; Reichenau, T.; Schloss, A.; Sitch, S.; Tian, H.; Williams, L.J.; Wittenberg, U.

2002-01-01

An atmospheric transport model and observations of atmospheric CO2 are used to evaluate the performance of four Terrestrial Carbon Models (TCMs) in simulating the seasonal dynamics and interannual variability of atmospheric CO2 between 1980 and 1991. The TCMs were forced with time varying atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate, and land use to simulate the net exchange of carbon between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. The monthly surface CO2 fluxes from the TCMs were used to drive the Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry and the simulated seasonal cycles and concentration anomalies are compared with observations from several stations in the CMDL network. The TCMs underestimate the amplitude of the seasonal cycle and tend to simulate too early an uptake of CO2 during the spring by approximately one to two months. The model fluxes show an increase in amplitude as a result of land-use change, but that pattern is not so evident in the simulated atmospheric amplitudes, and the different models suggest different causes for the amplitude increase (i.e., CO2 fertilization, climate variability or land use change). The comparison of the modeled concentration anomalies with the observed anomalies indicates that either the TCMs underestimate interannual variability in the exchange of CO2 between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere, or that either the variability in the ocean fluxes or the atmospheric transport may be key factors in the atmospheric interannual variability.

Polar Marine Microorganisms and Climate Change.

PubMed

Verde, C; Giordano, D; Bellas, C M; di Prisco, G; Anesio, A M

2016-01-01

The large diversity of marine microorganisms harboured by oceans plays an important role in planet sustainability by driving globally important biogeochemical cycles; all primary and most secondary production in the oceans is performed by microorganisms. The largest part of the planet is covered by cold environments; consequently, cold-adapted microorganisms have crucial functional roles in globally important environmental processes and biogeochemical cycles cold-adapted extremophiles are a remarkable model to shed light on the molecular basis of survival at low temperature. The indigenous populations of Antarctic and Arctic microorganisms are endowed with genetic and physiological traits that allow them to live and effectively compete at the temperatures prevailing in polar regions. Some genes, e.g. glycosyltransferases and glycosylsynthetases involved in the architecture of the cell wall, may have been acquired/retained during evolution of polar strains or lost in tropical strains. This present work focusses on temperature and its role in shaping microbial adaptations; however, in assessing the impacts of climate changes on microbial diversity and biogeochemical cycles in polar oceans, it should not be forgotten that physiological studies need to include the interaction of temperature with other abiotic and biotic factors. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.

Prospective environmental life cycle assessment of nanosilver T-shirts.

PubMed

Walser, Tobias; Demou, Evangelia; Lang, Daniel J; Hellweg, Stefanie

2011-05-15

A cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment (LCA) is performed to compare nanosilver T-shirts with conventional T-shirts with and without biocidal treatment. For nanosilver production and textile incorporation, we investigate two processes: flame spray pyrolysis (FSP) and plasma polymerization with silver co-sputtering (PlaSpu). Prospective environmental impacts due to increased nanosilver T-shirt commercialization are estimated with six scenarios. Results show significant differences in environmental burdens between nanoparticle production technologies: The "cradle-to-gate" climate footprint of the production of a nanosilver T-shirt is 2.70 kg of CO(2)-equiv (FSP) and 7.67-166 kg of CO(2)-equiv (PlaSpu, varying maturity stages). Production of conventional T-shirts with and without the biocide triclosan has emissions of 2.55 kg of CO(2)-equiv (contribution from triclosan insignificant). Consumer behavior considerably affects the environmental impacts during the use phase. Lower washing frequencies can compensate for the increased climate footprint of FSP nanosilver T-shirt production. The toxic releases from washing and disposal in the life cycle of T-shirts appear to be of minor relevance. By contrast, the production phase may be rather significant due to toxic silver emissions at the mining site if high silver quantities are required.

Intensification of convective extremes driven by cloud-cloud interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moseley, Christopher; Hohenegger, Cathy; Berg, Peter; Haerter, Jan O.

2016-10-01

In a changing climate, a key role may be played by the response of convective-type cloud and precipitation to temperature changes. Yet, it is unclear if convective precipitation intensities will increase mainly due to thermodynamic or dynamical processes. Here we perform large eddy simulations of convection by imposing a realistic diurnal cycle of surface temperature. We find convective events to gradually self-organize into larger cloud clusters and those events occurring late in the day to produce the highest precipitation intensities. Tracking rain cells throughout their life cycles, we show that events which result from collisions respond strongly to changes in boundary conditions, such as temperature changes. Conversely, events not resulting from collisions remain largely unaffected by the boundary conditions. Increased surface temperature indeed leads to more interaction between events and stronger precipitation extremes. However, comparable intensification occurs when leaving temperature unchanged but simply granting more time for self-organization. These findings imply that the convective field as a whole acquires a memory of past precipitation and inter-cloud dynamics, driving extremes. For global climate model projections, our results suggest that the interaction between convective clouds must be incorporated to simulate convective extremes and the diurnal cycle more realistically.

Ocean Carbon Cycle Feedbacks Under Negative Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwinger, Jörg; Tjiputra, Jerry

2018-05-01

Negative emissions will most likely be needed to achieve ambitious climate targets, such as limiting global warming to 1.5°. Here we analyze the ocean carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedback in an Earth system model under an idealized strong CO2 peak and decline scenario. We find that the ocean carbon-climate feedback is not reversible by means of negative emissions on decadal to centennial timescales. When preindustrial surface climate is restored, the oceans, due to the carbon-climate feedback, still contain about 110 Pg less carbon compared to a simulation without climate change. This result is unsurprising but highlights an issue with a widely used carbon cycle feedback metric. We show that this metric can be greatly improved by using ocean potential temperature as a proxy for climate change. The nonlinearity (nonadditivity) of climate and CO2-driven feedbacks continues to grow after the atmospheric CO2 peak.

When the Well Runs Dry: Climate Change, Water and Human Health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balbus, J. M.

2014-12-01

Water is a critical pathway between changes in climate and impacts on human health. Increased intensity of the hydrologic cycle can impair water quality through both drought and runoff associated with extreme precipitation events. Local changes or extremes in hydrological cycles can also alter the life cycles of moquitoes, ticks, snails, and other carriers of human diseases. These impacts in turn can affect the transmission of malaria, schistosomiasis, and many other human diseases. Warmer freshwater and coastal waters, in combination with other factors like fertilizer runoff and salinity, are also associated with proliferation of a variety of human pathogens, including cyanobacteria and vibrio species. This presentation will highlight the many linkages between climate change, water and human health. It will review recent findings of the US National Climate Assessment and 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC with regards to water-related threats to health, and discuss approaches to modeling health outcomes of water-associated climate change impacts.

Global convergence in the temperature sensitivity of respiration at ecosystem level.

PubMed

Mahecha, Miguel D; Reichstein, Markus; Carvalhais, Nuno; Lasslop, Gitta; Lange, Holger; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Vargas, Rodrigo; Ammann, Christof; Arain, M Altaf; Cescatti, Alessandro; Janssens, Ivan A; Migliavacca, Mirco; Montagnani, Leonardo; Richardson, Andrew D

2010-08-13

The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) from the land surface is a major flux in the global carbon cycle, antipodal to photosynthetic CO(2) uptake. Understanding the sensitivity of respiratory processes to temperature is central for quantifying the climate-carbon cycle feedback. We approximated the sensitivity of terrestrial ecosystem respiration to air temperature (Q(10)) across 60 FLUXNET sites with the use of a methodology that circumvents confounding effects. Contrary to previous findings, our results suggest that Q(10) is independent of mean annual temperature, does not differ among biomes, and is confined to values around 1.4 +/- 0.1. The strong relation between photosynthesis and respiration, by contrast, is highly variable among sites. The results may partly explain a less pronounced climate-carbon cycle feedback than suggested by current carbon cycle climate models.

Impact of the hydrological cycle on past climate changes: three illustrations at different time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramstein, Gilles; Khodri, Myriam; Donnadieu, Yannick; Fluteau, Frédéric; Goddéris, Yves

2005-02-01

We investigate in the paper the impact of the hydrologic cycle on climate at different periods. The aim is to illustrate how the changes in moisture transport, precipitation pattern, and weathering may alter, at regional or global scales, the CO 2 and climate equilibriums. We choose three climate periods to pinpoint intricate relationships between water cycle and climate. The illustrations are the following. ( i) The onset of ice-sheet build-up, 115 kyr BP. We show that the increased thermal meridian gradient of SST allows large moisture advection over the North American continent and provides appropriate conditions for perennial snow on the Canadian Archipelago. ( ii) The onset of Indian Monsoon at the end of the Tertiary. We demonstrate that superimposed to the Tibetan Plateau, the shrinkage of the Tethys, since Oligocene, plays a major role to explain changes in the geographical pattern of the southeastern Asian Monsoon. ( iii) The onset of Global Glaciation (750 Ma). We show that the break-up of Rodinia occurring at low latitudes is an important feature to explain how the important precipitation increase leads to weathering and carbon burial, which contribute to decrease atmospheric CO 2 enough to produce a snows ball Earth. All these periods have been simulated with a hierarchy of models appropriate to quantify the water cycle impact on climate. To cite this article: G. Ramstein et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).

Synchronized Northern Hemisphere climate change and solar magnetic cycles during the Maunder Minimum.

PubMed

Yamaguchi, Yasuhiko T; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Miyahara, Hiroko; Sho, Kenjiro; Nakatsuka, Takeshi

2010-11-30

The Maunder Minimum (A.D. 1645-1715) is a useful period to investigate possible sun-climate linkages as sunspots became exceedingly rare and the characteristics of solar cycles were different from those of today. Here, we report annual variations in the oxygen isotopic composition (δ(18)O) of tree-ring cellulose in central Japan during the Maunder Minimum. We were able to explore possible sun-climate connections through high-temporal resolution solar activity (radiocarbon contents; Δ(14)C) and climate (δ(18)O) isotope records derived from annual tree rings. The tree-ring δ(18)O record in Japan shows distinct negative δ(18)O spikes (wetter rainy seasons) coinciding with rapid cooling in Greenland and with decreases in Northern Hemisphere mean temperature at around minima of decadal solar cycles. We have determined that the climate signals in all three records strongly correlate with changes in the polarity of solar dipole magnetic field, suggesting a causal link to galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). These findings are further supported by a comparison between the interannual patterns of tree-ring δ(18)O record and the GCR flux reconstructed by an ice-core (10)Be record. Therefore, the variation of GCR flux associated with the multidecadal cycles of solar magnetic field seem to be causally related to the significant and widespread climate changes at least during the Maunder Minimum.

Synchronized Northern Hemisphere climate change and solar magnetic cycles during the Maunder Minimum

PubMed Central

Yamaguchi, Yasuhiko T.; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Miyahara, Hiroko; Sho, Kenjiro; Nakatsuka, Takeshi

2010-01-01

The Maunder Minimum (A.D. 1645–1715) is a useful period to investigate possible sun–climate linkages as sunspots became exceedingly rare and the characteristics of solar cycles were different from those of today. Here, we report annual variations in the oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of tree-ring cellulose in central Japan during the Maunder Minimum. We were able to explore possible sun–climate connections through high-temporal resolution solar activity (radiocarbon contents; Δ14C) and climate (δ18O) isotope records derived from annual tree rings. The tree-ring δ18O record in Japan shows distinct negative δ18O spikes (wetter rainy seasons) coinciding with rapid cooling in Greenland and with decreases in Northern Hemisphere mean temperature at around minima of decadal solar cycles. We have determined that the climate signals in all three records strongly correlate with changes in the polarity of solar dipole magnetic field, suggesting a causal link to galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). These findings are further supported by a comparison between the interannual patterns of tree-ring δ18O record and the GCR flux reconstructed by an ice-core 10Be record. Therefore, the variation of GCR flux associated with the multidecadal cycles of solar magnetic field seem to be causally related to the significant and widespread climate changes at least during the Maunder Minimum. PMID:21076031

Human Impacts on the Hydrologic Cycle: Comparing Global Climate Change and Local Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferguson, I. M.; Maxwell, R. M.

2010-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change is significantly altering the hydrologic cycle at global and regional scales, with potentially devastating impacts on water resources. Recent studies demonstrate that hydrologic response to climate change will depend on local-scale feedbacks between groundwater, surface water, and land surface processes. These studies suggest that local water management practices that alter the quantity and distribution of water in the terrestrial system—e.g., groundwater pumping and irrigation—may also feed back across the hydrologic cycle, with impacts on land-atmosphere fluxes and thus weather and climate. Here we use an integrated hydrologic model to compare the impacts of large-scale climate change and local water management practices on water and energy budgets at local and watershed scales. We consider three climate scenarios (hot, hot+wet, and hot+dry) and three management scenarios (pumping only, irrigation only, and pumping+irrigation). Results demonstrate that impacts of local water management on basin-integrated groundwater storage, evapotranspiration, and stream discharge are comparable to those of changing climate conditions. However, impacts of climate change are shown to have a smaller magnitude and greater spatial extent, while impacts of pumping and irrigation are shown to have a greater magnitude but are local to areas where pumping and irrigation occur. These results have important implications regarding the scales of human impacts on both water resources and climate and the sustainability of water resources.

Microbial contributions to climate change through carbon cycle feedbacks.

PubMed

Bardgett, Richard D; Freeman, Chris; Ostle, Nicholas J

2008-08-01

There is considerable interest in understanding the biological mechanisms that regulate carbon exchanges between the land and atmosphere, and how these exchanges respond to climate change. An understanding of soil microbial ecology is central to our ability to assess terrestrial carbon cycle-climate feedbacks, but the complexity of the soil microbial community and the many ways that it can be affected by climate and other global changes hampers our ability to draw firm conclusions on this topic. In this paper, we argue that to understand the potential negative and positive contributions of soil microbes to land-atmosphere carbon exchange and global warming requires explicit consideration of both direct and indirect impacts of climate change on microorganisms. Moreover, we argue that this requires consideration of complex interactions and feedbacks that occur between microbes, plants and their physical environment in the context of climate change, and the influence of other global changes which have the capacity to amplify climate-driven effects on soil microbes. Overall, we emphasize the urgent need for greater understanding of how soil microbial ecology contributes to land-atmosphere carbon exchange in the context of climate change, and identify some challenges for the future. In particular, we highlight the need for a multifactor experimental approach to understand how soil microbes and their activities respond to climate change and consequences for carbon cycle feedbacks.

Climate, soil or both? Which variables are better predictors of the distributions of Australian shrub species?

PubMed Central

Esperón-Rodríguez, Manuel; Baumgartner, John B.; Beaumont, Linda J.

2017-01-01

Background Shrubs play a key role in biogeochemical cycles, prevent soil and water erosion, provide forage for livestock, and are a source of food, wood and non-wood products. However, despite their ecological and societal importance, the influence of different environmental variables on shrub distributions remains unclear. We evaluated the influence of climate and soil characteristics, and whether including soil variables improved the performance of a species distribution model (SDM), Maxent. Methods This study assessed variation in predictions of environmental suitability for 29 Australian shrub species (representing dominant members of six shrubland classes) due to the use of alternative sets of predictor variables. Models were calibrated with (1) climate variables only, (2) climate and soil variables, and (3) soil variables only. Results The predictive power of SDMs differed substantially across species, but generally models calibrated with both climate and soil data performed better than those calibrated only with climate variables. Models calibrated solely with soil variables were the least accurate. We found regional differences in potential shrub species richness across Australia due to the use of different sets of variables. Conclusions Our study provides evidence that predicted patterns of species richness may be sensitive to the choice of predictor set when multiple, plausible alternatives exist, and demonstrates the importance of considering soil properties when modeling availability of habitat for plants. PMID:28652933

Influences of water quality and climate on the water-energy nexus: A spatial comparison of two water systems.

PubMed

Stang, Shannon; Wang, Haiying; Gardner, Kevin H; Mo, Weiwei

2018-07-15

As drinking water supply systems plan for sustainable management practices, impacts from future water quality and climate changes are a major concern. This study aims to understand the intraannual changes of energy consumption for water treatment, investigate the relative importance of water quality and climate indicators on energy consumption for water treatment, and predict the effects of climate change on the embodied energy of treated, potable water at two municipal drinking water systems located in the northeast and southeast US. To achieve this goal, a life cycle assessment was first performed to quantify the monthly energy consumption in the two drinking water systems. Regression and relative importance analyses were then performed between climate indicators, raw water quality indicators, and chemical and energy usages in the treatment processes to determine their correlations. These relationships were then used to project changes in embodied energy associated with the plants' processes, and the results were compared between the two regions. The projections of the southeastern US water plant were for an increase in energy demand resulted from an increase of treatment chemical usages. The northeastern US plant was projected to decrease its energy demand due to a reduced demand for heating the plant's infrastructure. The findings indicate that geographic location and treatment process may determine the way climate change affects drinking water systems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Century to Millennium-Scale Late Quaternary Natural Climate Variability in the Midwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaumann, Peter Josef

1995-01-01

Estimates of past natural climatic variability on long time scales (centuries to millennia) are crucial in testing climate models. The process of model validation takes advantage of long general circulation model (GCM) integrations, instrumental and satellite observations, and paleoclimatic records. Here I use paleoclimatic proxy records from central North America spanning the last 150 ka to characterize climatic variability on sub-orbital time scales. A terrestrial last interglacial (~ 130 to 75 kyr BP) pollen sequence from south-central Illinois, U.S.A., contains climatic variance in frequency bands between 1 cycle/10 kyr and 1 cycle/1 kyr. The temporal variance is best developed as alternating cycles of pollen assemblages indicative of wet and dry conditions. Spectral cross-correlations between selected pollen types and potential forcings (ETP (eccentricity, tilt, precession), SPECMAP delta^{18}O) implicate oceanic and solar processes as possible mechanisms driving last interglacial vegetation and climate change in the Midwestern U.S. During the last glacial stage (LGS; 20 to 16 kyr BP) a lacustrine sequence from the central Mississippi River valley experienced major flooding events caused by intermittent melting of the Laurentide ice sheet. Rock -magnetic and grain size data confirm the physical record of flood clays. Correlation of the flood clays to the Greenland (GRIP) ice core is weak. However, the Laurentide melting events seem to fall temporally between the releases of minor LGS iceberg discharges into the North Atlantic. The GRIP delta^{18}O and the Midwestern U.S. magnetic susceptibility time series indicate sub-Milankovitch climate variability modes. Mapping, multivariate, and time series analyses of Holocene (8 to 1 ka) pollen sequences from central North America suggest spatial patterns of vegetation and climate change on sub-orbital to millennial time scales. The rate, magnitude, and spatial patterns of change varied considerably over the study region. Major climatic variance contained in several well-dated pollen time series ranges between 1 cycle/6 kyr and 1 cycle/0.6 kyr. Singular and cross -spectral analyses, again, suggest solar and oceanic forcing. Although it is difficult to attribute past climatic changes to specific forcings, the geologic record of past global change will prove invaluable in the assessment of long-term future climate change and prediction.

How well do we know the global water cycle? - Intercomparison and Performance Analysis of the Hydrological Cycle in Three State-of-the-Art Reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunstmann, H.; Lorenz, C.

2012-12-01

The three state-of-the-art global atmospheric reanalysis models—namely, ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA; NASA), and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR; NCEP)—are analyzed and compared with independent observations (GPCC; GPCP; CRU; CPC; DEL; HOAPS) in the period between 1989 and 2006. Comparison of precipitation and temperature estimates from the three models with gridded observations reveals large differences between the reanalyses and also of the observation datasets. A major source of uncertainty in the observations is the spatial distribution and change of the number of gauges over time. In South America for example, active measuring stations were reduced from 4267 to 390. The quality of precipitation estimates from the reanalyses strongly depends on the geographic location, as there are significant differences especially in tropical regions. The closure of the water cycle in the three reanalyses is analyzed by estimating long-term mean values for precipitation, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, and moisture flux divergence. Major shortcomings in the moisture budgets of the datasets are mainly due to inconsistencies of the net precipitation minus evaporation and evapotranspiration, respectively, (P-E) estimates over the oceans and landmasses. This imbalance largely originates from the assimilation of radiance sounding data from the NOAA-15 satellite, which results in an unrealistic increase of oceanic P-E in the MERRA and CFSR budgets. Overall, ERA-Interim shows both a comparatively reasonable closure of the terrestrial and atmospheric water balance and a reasonable agreement with the observation datasets. The limited performance of the three state-of-the-art reanalyses in reproducing the hydrological cycle, however, puts the use of these models for climate trend analyses and long-term water budget studies into question.

Carbon Dioxide Cycling And The Climate of Ancient Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zahnle, Kevin; Sleep, Norman H.; DeVincenzi, Donald (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The continental cycle of silicate weathering and metamorphism dynamically buffers atmospheric CO2 and climate. Feedback is provided by the strong temperature dependence of silicate weathering. Here we argue that hydrothermal alteration of oceanic basalts also dynamically buffers CO2. The oceanic cycle links with the mantle via subduction and the midocean ridges. Feedback is provided by the dependence of carbonatization on dissolved carbonates in seawater. Unlike the continental cycle, the oceanic cycle has no thermostat. Currently the continental cycle is more important, but earlier in Earth's history, especially if heat flow were higher than it is now, more vigorous plate tectonics would have made the oceanic cycle dominant. We find that CO2 greenhouses thick enough to defeat the faint early sun are implausible and that, if no other greenhouse gases are invoked, very cold climates are expected for much of the Proterozoic and the Archean. We echo current fashion and favor biogenic methane as the chief supplement to CO2. Fast weathering and probable subduction of abundant impact ejecta would have reduced CO2 levels still further in the Hadean. Despite its name, the Hadean would have been the coldest era in the history of the Earth.

Carbon Dioxide Cycling and the Climate of Ancient Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zahnle, Kevin; Sleep, Norman H.

2001-01-01

The continental cycle of silicate weathering and metamorphism dynamically buffers atmospheric CO2 and climate. Feedback is provided by the strong temperature dependence of silicate weathering. Here we argue that hydrothermal alteration of oceanic basalts also dynamically buffers CO2. The oceanic cycle links with the mantle via subduction and the midocean ridges. Feedback is provided by the dependence of carbonatization on dissolved carbonates in seawater. Unlike the continental cycle, the oceanic cycle has no thermostat. Currently the continental cycle is more important, but earlier in Earth's history, especially if heat flow were higher than it is now, more vigorous plate tectonics would have made the oceanic cycle dominant. We find that CO2 greenhouses thick enough to defeat the faint early Sun are implausible and that, if no other greenhouse gases are invoked, very cold climates are expected for much of the Proterozoic and the Archean. We echo current fashion and favor biogenic methane as the chief supplement to CO2. Fast weathering and probable subduction of abundant impact ejecta would have reduced CO2 levels still further in the Hadean. Despite its name, the Hadean would have been the coldest era in the history of the Earth.

Nasal airflow simulations suggest convergent adaptation in Neanderthals and modern humans.

PubMed

de Azevedo, S; González, M F; Cintas, C; Ramallo, V; Quinto-Sánchez, M; Márquez, F; Hünemeier, T; Paschetta, C; Ruderman, A; Navarro, P; Pazos, B A; Silva de Cerqueira, C C; Velan, O; Ramírez-Rozzi, F; Calvo, N; Castro, H G; Paz, R R; González-José, R

2017-11-21

Both modern humans (MHs) and Neanderthals successfully settled across western Eurasian cold-climate landscapes. Among the many adaptations considered as essential to survival in such landscapes, changes in the nasal morphology and/or function aimed to humidify and warm the air before it reaches the lungs are of key importance. Unfortunately, the lack of soft-tissue evidence in the fossil record turns difficult any comparative study of respiratory performance. Here, we reconstruct the internal nasal cavity of a Neanderthal plus two representatives of climatically divergent MH populations (southwestern Europeans and northeastern Asians). The reconstruction includes mucosa distribution enabling a realistic simulation of the breathing cycle in different climatic conditions via computational fluid dynamics. Striking across-specimens differences in fluid residence times affecting humidification and warming performance at the anterior tract were found under cold/dry climate simulations. Specifically, the Asian model achieves a rapid air conditioning, followed by the Neanderthals, whereas the European model attains a proper conditioning only around the medium-posterior tract. In addition, quantitative-genetic evolutionary analyses of nasal morphology provided signals of stabilizing selection for MH populations, with the removal of Arctic populations turning covariation patterns compatible with evolution by genetic drift. Both results indicate that, departing from important craniofacial differences existing among Neanderthals and MHs, an advantageous species-specific respiratory performance in cold climates may have occurred in both species. Fluid dynamics and evolutionary biology independently provided evidence of nasal evolution, suggesting that adaptive explanations regarding complex functional phenotypes require interdisciplinary approaches aimed to quantify both performance and evolutionary signals on covariation patterns.

Natural cycles and agricultural inputs: a farm gate Ecological Footprint analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passeri, Nicolo; Blasi, Emanuele; Borucke, Michael; Galli, Alessandro; Franco, Silvio

2014-05-01

Land suitability for different crops depends on soil, water and climate conditions, as well as farmers' cultivation choices. Moreover, the use of agricultural inputs affects the natural cycles of crops and impacts their production. By assessing the ecological performance of farms as influenced by crop types, cultivation choices and land suitability one can therefore evaluate the effectiveness of agricultural practices and governance's options. Ecological Footprint accounts can be used to measure such ecological performance. These accounts track human demand for natural resources and ecological services and compare this demand with nature ability to regenerate these resource and services. This regenerative capacity is called biocapacity. Both demand (Footprint) and supply (biocapacity) are expressed in global hectares. Farming different from most other human activities, not only uses natural resources, but also enhances or erodes ecological supply. It therefore affects all factors that determine both Footprint and biocapacity. Climate, farmers' skills and choices (fertilizers, pesticides, machines) determine crop productivity, and to what extent crops preserve or compromise soils. The aim of this work is to evaluate how farmer's choices affect resources overexploitation. The study analysed how the use of inputs influences natural cycles within farm boundaries. This result from a pilot case study will show how particular farming practices affect both the farm's biocapacity and Ecological Footprint. Such analysis is relevant for informing involved stakeholders, namely the farmers on more sustainable agricultural practices and the policy makers on more suitable agricultural policies.

Examination of Satellite and Model Reanalysis Precipitation with Climate Oscillations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donato, T. F.; Houser, P. R.

2016-12-01

The purpose of this study is to examine the efficacy of satellite and model reanalysis precipitation with climate oscillations. Specifically, we examine and compare the relationship between the Global Precipitation Climate Project (GPCP) with Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application, Version 2 (MERRA-2) in regards to four climate indices: The North Atlantic Oscillation, Southern Oscillation Index, the Southern Annular Mode and Solar Activity. This analysis covers a 35-year observation period from 1980 through 2015. We ask two questions: How is global and regional precipitation changing over the observation period, and how are global and regional variations in precipitation related to global climate variation? We explore and compare global and regional precipitation trends between the two data sets. To do this, we constructed a total of 56 Regions of Interest (ROI). Nineteen of the ROIs were focused on geographic regions including continents, ocean basins, and marginal seas. Twelve ROIs examine hemispheric processes. The remaining 26 regions are derived from spatial-temporal classification analysis of GPCP data over a ten-year period (2001-2010). These regions include the primary wet and dry monsoon regions, regions influenced by western boundary currents, and orography. We investigate and interpret the monthly, seasonal and yearly global and regional response to the selected climate indices. Initial results indicate that no correlation exist between the GPCP data and Merra-2 data. Preliminary qualitative assessment between GCPC and solar activity suggest a possible relationship in intra-annual variability. This work is performed under the State of the Global Water and Energy Cycle (SWEC) project, a NASA-sponsored program in support of NASA's Energy and Water cycle Study (NEWS).

Development of Representative Rainfall Periods for Green Infrastructure Design: Connecting the Dots Between Climate, Urban Hydrology and Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albright, C. M.; Traver, R.; Wadzuk, B.

2017-12-01

Analysis of local-to-regional climate data is critical in understanding how changing patterns in rainfall and other atmospheric conditions can affect urban hydrology. Urbanization has caused hydrologic and ecologic modifications to our land surfaces, and altered the dynamics of urban water cycle in complex ways. Green infrastructure (GI) systems, in their simplest form, reduce runoff and flooding, prevent combined sewer overflows and improve quality of receiving waters. However, when viewed through a more holistic lens, GI systems sit at the nexus of hydrology, climate and energy, yet are rarely designed to account for the impacts of these intersections. We must assess urban hydrologic systems beyond their response to a single event or design storm, incorporating multiple temporal scales and all hydrologic processes. This is of utmost importance to design and characterization of urban GI systems because the resilience of these systems will be dictated by their ability to adapt to future behavior of extreme weather patterns and climate. In this study, we characterize long-term hydrologic conditions in Philadelphia to identify periods of record that are most representative of regional climate characteristics, including a representative rainfall year and longer representative periods. Utility of these datasets will be demonstrated by showing that GI systems are able to sustain effective performance for most expected annual precipitation events. Connections between atmospheric (precipitation and temperature) patterns, GI systems and potential removal mechanisms in the urban hydrologic cycle will be presented for Philadelphia and cities with similar climate characteristics. Establishing such connections is critically needed to not only validate what is already known about urban GI, but more importantly, to advance theory and practice by linking the hydrologic benefits of urban GI to broader concepts such as risk, mitigation of extreme events and sustainable communities.

Late Pliocene-Early Pleistocene oscillations in Mediterranean Overflow water: a new perspective from the Iberian Margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alonso-Garcia, M.; Salgueiro, E.; Rodrigues, T.; Alvarez Zarikian, C. A.; Kuhnert, H.; Roehl, U.; Voelker, A. H. L.; Sierro, F. J.; Abrantes, F. F. G.

2016-12-01

During the Late Pliocene to the Early Pleistocene the Earth experienced a transition from the warm Pliocene climate, with high greenhouse gases concentrations, to a colder climate with significant expansion of ice-sheets in the Northern Hemisphere and alternation between glacial and interglacial periods. Several hypotheses have been put forward to explain this climate transition, and recently, the enhancement of the Mediterranean Overflow Water (MOW) was suggested to have played a major role since it contributes high salinity water to the North Atlantic. Sedimentary records from the last glacial cycle and modelling experiments evidenced this link and suggested that the MOW injection of salty water to intermediate depths may have enhanced the upper branch of NADW, which ultimately reinvigorated the whole Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation. Here we present sedimentological and paleontological data from Site U1391 (37° N; 9° W; 1085 m water depth), recovered on the Southwest Iberian Margin during the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 339. This site is located in a plastered drift in the path of the MOW and offers high sedimentation rates to perform high resolution studies of past climatic and oceanographic conditions. In this study, we combined XRF geochemical data (from X-ray fluorescence core scanning) with grain-size, benthic foraminifer δ18O and δ13C, and ostracod records to reconstruct deep water circulation and climatic conditions during the Plio-Pleistocene transition. The high-resolution record of the XRF analysis indicates a switch in the response of MOW to climate changes across this transition. Early Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles show a stronger coupling between MOW oscillations (as indicated by the Zr/Al ratio) and sea surface temperature conditions (as indicated by the Ca/Ti ratio).

A probabilistic method for streamflow projection and associated uncertainty analysis in a data sparse alpine region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Weiwei; Yang, Tao; Shi, Pengfei; Xu, Chong-yu; Zhang, Ke; Zhou, Xudong; Shao, Quanxi; Ciais, Philippe

2018-06-01

Climate change imposes profound influence on regional hydrological cycle and water security in many alpine regions worldwide. Investigating regional climate impacts using watershed scale hydrological models requires a large number of input data such as topography, meteorological and hydrological data. However, data scarcity in alpine regions seriously restricts evaluation of climate change impacts on water cycle using conventional approaches based on global or regional climate models, statistical downscaling methods and hydrological models. Therefore, this study is dedicated to development of a probabilistic model to replace the conventional approaches for streamflow projection. The probabilistic model was built upon an advanced Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) approach directly fed by the large-scale climate predictor variables and tested in a typical data sparse alpine region, the Kaidu River basin in Central Asia. Results show that BNN model performs better than the general methods across a number of statistical measures. The BNN method with flexible model structures by active indicator functions, which reduce the dependence on the initial specification for the input variables and the number of hidden units, can work well in a data limited region. Moreover, it can provide more reliable streamflow projections with a robust generalization ability. Forced by the latest bias-corrected GCM scenarios, streamflow projections for the 21st century under three RCP emission pathways were constructed and analyzed. Briefly, the proposed probabilistic projection approach could improve runoff predictive ability over conventional methods and provide better support to water resources planning and management under data limited conditions as well as enable a facilitated climate change impact analysis on runoff and water resources in alpine regions worldwide.

Diode-laser-based water vapor differential absorption lidar (DIAL) profiler evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spuler, S.; Weckwerth, T.; Repasky, K. S.; Nehrir, A. R.; Carbone, R.

2012-12-01

We are in the process of evaluating the performance of an eye-safe, low-cost, diode-laser-based, water vapor differential absorption lidar (DIAL) profiler. This class of instrument may be capable of providing continuous water vapor and aerosol backscatter profiles at high vertical resolution in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) for periods of months to years. The technology potentially fills a national long term observing facility gap and could greatly benefit micro- and meso-meteorology, water cycle, carbon cycle and, more generally, biosphere-hydrosphere-atmosphere interaction research at both weather and climate variability time scales. For the evaluation, the Montana State University 3rd generation water vapor DIAL was modified to enable unattended operation for a period of several weeks. The performance of this V3.5 version DIAL was tested at MSU and NCAR in June and July of 2012. Further tests are currently in progress with Howard University at Beltsville, Maryland; and with the National Weather Service and Oklahoma University at Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas. The presentation will include a comparison of DIAL profiles against meteorological "truth" at the aforementioned locations including: radiosondes, Raman lidars, microwave and IR radiometers, AERONET and SUOMINET systems. Instrument reliability, uncertainty, systematic biases, detection height statistics, and environmental complications will be evaluated. Performance will be judged in the context of diverse scientific applications that range from operational weather prediction and seasonal climate variability, to more demanding climate system process studies at the land-canopy-ABL interface. Estimating the extent to which such research and operational applications can be satisfied with a low cost autonomous network of similar instruments is our principal objective.

A Round Robin evaluation of AMSR-E soil moisture retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mittelbach, Heidi; Hirschi, Martin; Nicolai-Shaw, Nadine; Gruber, Alexander; Dorigo, Wouter; de Jeu, Richard; Parinussa, Robert; Jones, Lucas A.; Wagner, Wolfgang; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2014-05-01

Large-scale and long-term soil moisture observations based on remote sensing are promising data sets to investigate and understand various processes of the climate system including the water and biochemical cycles. Currently, the ESA Climate Change Initiative for soil moisture develops and evaluates a consistent global long-term soil moisture data set, which is based on merging passive and active remotely sensed soil moisture. Within this project an inter-comparison of algorithms for AMSR-E and ASCAT Level 2 products was conducted separately to assess the performance of different retrieval algorithms. Here we present the inter-comparison of AMSR-E Level 2 soil moisture products. These include the public data sets from University of Montana (UMT), Japan Aerospace and Space Exploration Agency (JAXA), VU University of Amsterdam (VUA; two algorithms) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). All participating algorithms are applied to the same AMSR-E Level 1 data set. Ascending and descending paths of scaled surface soil moisture are considered and evaluated separately in daily and monthly resolution over the 2007-2011 time period. Absolute values of soil moisture as well as their long-term anomalies (i.e. removing the mean seasonal cycle) and short-term anomalies (i.e. removing a five weeks moving average) are evaluated. The evaluation is based on conventional measures like correlation and unbiased root-mean-square differences as well as on the application of the triple collocation method. As reference data set, surface soil moisture of 75 quality controlled soil moisture sites from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) are used, which cover a wide range of vegetation density and climate conditions. For the application of the triple collocation method, surface soil moisture estimates from the Global Land Data Assimilation System are used as third independent data set. We find that the participating algorithms generally display a better performance for the descending compared to the ascending paths. A first classification of the sites defined by geographical locations show that the algorithms have a very similar average performance. Further classifications of the sites by land cover types and climate regions will be conducted which might result in a more diverse performance of the algorithms.

A Record of Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Zach

2007-01-01

The hydrologic cycle is a very basic scientific principle. In this article, background information is presented on how the hydrologic cycle provides scientists with clues to understanding the history of Earth's climate. Also detailed is a web-based activity that allows students to learn about how scientists are able to piece together a record of…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Erickson III, David J.; Sulzberger, Barbara; Zepp, Richard G.

Climate change modulates the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, particularly for carbon cycling, resulting in UV-mediated positive or negative feedbacks on climate. Possible positive feedbacks discussed in this assessment include: (i) enhanced UV-induced mineralisation of above ground litter due to aridification; (ii) enhanced UV-induced mineralisation of photoreactive dissolved organic matter (DOM) in aquatic ecosystems due to changes in continental runoff and ice melting; (iii) reduced efficiency of the biological pump due to UV-induced bleaching of coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in stratified aquatic ecosystems, where CDOM protects phytoplankton from the damaging solarmore » UV-B radiation. Mineralisation of organic matter results in the production and release of CO 2, whereas the biological pump is the main biological process for CO 2 removal by aquatic ecosystems. This research also assesses the interactive effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on the biogeochemical cycling of aerosols and trace gases other than CO 2, as well as of chemical and biological contaminants. Lastly,, interacting effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycles are particularly pronounced at terrestrial-aquatic interfaces.« less

Terrestrial Hydrological Data from NASA's Hydrology Data and Information Services Center (HDISC): Products, Services, and Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fang, Hongliang; Beaudoing, Hiroko K.; Mocko, David M.; Rodell, Matthew; Teng, Bill; Vollmer, Bruce

2010-01-01

Terrestrial hydrological variables are important in global hydrology, climate, and carbon cycle studies. The North American and Global Land Data Assimilation Systems (NLDAS and GLDAS, respectively) have been generating a series of land surface states (soil moisture, snow, and temperature) and fluxes (evapotranspiration, radiation, and heat flux) variables. These data, hosted at and available from NASA s Hydrology Data and Information Services Center (HDISC), include the NLDAS hourly 1/8 degree products and the GLDAS 3-hourly 0.25 and 1.0 degree products. HDISC provides easy access and visualization and analysis capabilities for these products, thus reducing the time and resources spent by scientists on data management and facilitating hydrological research. Users can perform spatial and parameter subsetting, data format transformation, and data analysis operations without needing to first download the data. HDISC is continually being developed as a data and services portal that supports weather and climate forecasts, and water and energy cycle research.

Acidification at the Surface in the East Sea: A Coupled Climate-carbon Cycle Model Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Young-Gyu; Seol, Kyung-Hee; Boo, Kyung-On; Lee, Johan; Cho, Chunho; Byun, Young-Hwa; Seo, Seongbong

2018-05-01

This modeling study investigates the impacts of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration on acidification in the East Sea. A historical simulation for the past three decades (1980 to 2010) was performed using the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (version 2), a coupled climate model with atmospheric, terrestrial and ocean cycles. As the atmospheric CO2 concentration increased, acidification progressed in the surface waters of the marginal sea. The acidification was similar in magnitude to observations and models of acidification in the global ocean. However, in the global ocean, the acidification appears to be due to increased in-situ oceanic CO2 uptake, whereas local processes had stronger effects in the East Sea. pH was lowered by surface warming and by the influx of water with higher dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from the northwestern Pacific. Due to the enhanced advection of DIC, the partial pressure of CO2 increased faster than in the overlying air; consequently, the in-situ oceanic uptake of CO2 decreased.

A Life Cycle Assessment of integrated dairy farm-greenhouse systems in British Columbia.

PubMed

Zhang, Siduo; Bi, Xiaotao Tony; Clift, Roland

2013-12-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the anticipated environmental benefits from integrating a dairy farm and a greenhouse; the integration is based on anaerobic digestion of manures to produce biogas energy, biogenic CO2, and digested slurry. A full Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) has been conducted on six modeled cases applicable in British Columbia, to evaluate non-renewable energy consumption, climate change, acidification, eutrophication, respiratory effects and human toxicity. Compared to conventional practice, an integrated system has the potential to nearly halve eutrophication and respiratory effects caused by inorganic emissions and to reduce non-renewable energy consumption, climate change, and acidification by 65-90%, while respiratory effects caused by organic emissions become negative as co-products substitute for other materials. Co-digestion of other livestock manures, greenhouse plant waste, or food and food processing waste with dairy manure can further improve the performance of the integrated system. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of Energy Savings Potential from the Use of Demand Control Ventilation Systems in General Office Spaces in California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hong, Tianzhen; Fisk, William J.

2009-07-08

Demand controlled ventilation (DCV) was evaluated for general office spaces in California. A medium size office building meeting the prescriptive requirements of the 2008 California building energy efficiency standards (CEC 2008) was assumed in the building energy simulations performed with the EnergyPlus program to calculate the DCV energy savings potential in five typical California climates. Three design occupancy densities and two minimum ventilation rates were used as model inputs to cover a broader range of design variations. The assumed values of minimum ventilation rates in offices without DCV, based on two different measurement methods, were 81 and 28 cfm per occupant. These rates are based on the co-author's unpublished analyses of data from EPA's survey of 100 U.S. office buildings. These minimum ventilation rates exceed the 15 to 20 cfm per person required in most ventilation standards for offices. The cost effectiveness of applying DCV in general office spaces was estimated via a life cycle cost analyses that considered system costs and energy cost reductions. The results of the energy modeling indicate that the energy savings potential of DCV is largest in the desert area of California (climate zone 14), followed by Mountains (climate zone 16), Central Valley (climate zone 12), North Coast (climate zone 3), and South Coast (climate zone 6). The results of the life cycle cost analysis show DCV is cost effective for office spaces if the typical minimum ventilation rates without DCV is 81 cfm per person, except at the low design occupancy of 10 people per 1000 ft{sup 2} in climate zones 3 and 6. At the low design occupancy of 10 people per 1000 ft{sup 2}, the greatest DCV life cycle cost savings is a net present value (NPV) ofmore » $$0.52/ft{sup 2} in climate zone 14, followed by $$0.32/ft{sup 2} in climate zone 16 and $$0.19/ft{sup 2} in climate zone 12. At the medium design occupancy of 15 people per 1000 ft{sup 2}, the DCV savings are higher with a NPV $$0.93/ft{sup 2} in climate zone 14, followed by $$0.55/ft{sup 2} in climate zone 16, $$0.46/ft{sup 2} in climate zone 12, $$0.30/ft{sup 2} in climate zone 3, $$0.16/ft{sup 2} in climate zone 3. At the high design occupancy of 20 people per 1000 ft{sup 2}, the DCV savings are even higher with a NPV $$1.37/ft{sup 2} in climate zone 14, followed by $$0.86/ft{sup 2} in climate zone 16, $$0.84/ft{sup 2} in climate zone 3, $$0.82/ft{sup 2} in climate zone 12, and $0.65/ft{sup 2} in climate zone 6. DCV was not found to be cost effective if the typical minimum ventilation rate without DCV is 28 cfm per occupant, except at high design occupancy of 20 people per 1000 ft{sup 2} in climate zones 14 and 16. Until the large uncertainties about the base case ventilation rates in offices without DCV are reduced, the case for requiring DCV in general office spaces will be a weak case.« less

Understanding the dust cycle at high latitudes: integrating models and observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albani, S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Maggi, V.; Delmonte, B.; Winckler, G.; Potenza, M. A. C.; Baccolo, G.; Balkanski, Y.

2017-12-01

Changing climate conditions affect dust emissions and the global dust cycle, which in turn affects climate and biogeochemistry. Paleodust archives from land, ocean, and ice sheets preserve the history of dust deposition for a range of spatial scales from close to the major hemispheric sources to remote sinks such as the polar ice sheets. In each hemisphere common features on the glacial-interglacial time scale mark the baseline evolution of the dust cycle, and inspired the hypothesis that increased dust deposition to ocean stimulated the glacial biological pump contributing to the reduction of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. On the other hand finer geographical and temporal scales features are superposed to these glacial-interglacial trends, providing the chance of a more sophisticated understanding of the dust cycle, for instance allowing distinctions in terms of source availability or transport patterns as recorded by different records. As such paleodust archives can prove invaluable sources of information, especially when characterized by a quantitative estimation of the mass accumulation rates, and interpreted in connection with climate models. We review our past work and present ongoing research showing how climate models can help in the interpretation of paleodust records, as well as the potential of the same observations for constraining the representation of the global dust cycle embedded in Earth System Models, both in terms of magnitude and physical parameters related to particle sizes and optical properties. Finally we show the impacts on climate, based on this kind of observationally constrained model simulations.

Impact of climate change and climate anomalies on hydrologic and biogeochemical processes in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Diffuse nutrient pollution from agricultural landscapes is a priority water quality concern and the cause of mitigation activities worldwide. Climate change and climate variability impact hydrology, nutrient cycling, and ultimately water quality, which can complicate mitigation measures. Climate cha...

Energy Impacts of Oversized Residential Air Conditioners -- Simulation Study of Retrofit Sequence Impacts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Booten, C.; Christensen, C.; Winkler, J.

2014-11-01

This research addresses the question of what are the energy consequences for oversizing of an air conditioner in a home. Conventional wisdom holds that oversizing the AC results in significant energy penalties. However, the reason for this was shown to be due to crankcase heaters and not due to cycling performance of the AC, and is only valid for a particular set of assumptions. Adding or removing individual characteristics, such as ducts or crankcase heaters, can have measurable impacts on energy use. However, with all other home characteristics held constant, oversizing the AC generally has a small effect on coolingmore » energy use, even if the cycling performance of the unit is poor. The relevant aspects of air conditioner modeling are discussed to illustrate the effects of the cycling loss coefficient, Cd, capacity, climate, ducts and parasitic losses such as crankcase heaters. A case study of a typical 1960's vintage home demonstrates results in the context of whole building simulations using EnergyPlus.« less

Climate, carbon cycling, and deep-ocean ecosystems.

PubMed

Smith, K L; Ruhl, H A; Bett, B J; Billett, D S M; Lampitt, R S; Kaufmann, R S

2009-11-17

Climate variation affects surface ocean processes and the production of organic carbon, which ultimately comprises the primary food supply to the deep-sea ecosystems that occupy approximately 60% of the Earth's surface. Warming trends in atmospheric and upper ocean temperatures, attributed to anthropogenic influence, have occurred over the past four decades. Changes in upper ocean temperature influence stratification and can affect the availability of nutrients for phytoplankton production. Global warming has been predicted to intensify stratification and reduce vertical mixing. Research also suggests that such reduced mixing will enhance variability in primary production and carbon export flux to the deep sea. The dependence of deep-sea communities on surface water production has raised important questions about how climate change will affect carbon cycling and deep-ocean ecosystem function. Recently, unprecedented time-series studies conducted over the past two decades in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic at >4,000-m depth have revealed unexpectedly large changes in deep-ocean ecosystems significantly correlated to climate-driven changes in the surface ocean that can impact the global carbon cycle. Climate-driven variation affects oceanic communities from surface waters to the much-overlooked deep sea and will have impacts on the global carbon cycle. Data from these two widely separated areas of the deep ocean provide compelling evidence that changes in climate can readily influence deep-sea processes. However, the limited geographic coverage of these existing time-series studies stresses the importance of developing a more global effort to monitor deep-sea ecosystems under modern conditions of rapidly changing climate.

Variations in evapotranspiration and climate for an Amazonian semi-deciduous forest over seasonal, annual, and El Niño cycles.

PubMed

Vourlitis, George L; de Souza Nogueira, José; de Almeida Lobo, Francisco; Pinto, Osvaldo Borges

2015-02-01

Tropical forests exchange large amounts of water and energy with the atmosphere and are important in controlling regional and global climate; however, climate and evaportranspiration (E) vary significantly across multiple time scales. To better understand temporal patterns in E and climate, we measured the energy balance and meteorology of a semi-deciduous forest in the rainforest-savanna ecotone of northern Mato Grosso, Brazil, over a 7-year period and analyzed regional climate patterns over a 16-year period. Spectral analysis revealed that E and local climate exhibited consistent cycles over annual, seasonal, and weekly time scales. Annual and seasonal cycles were also apparent in the regional monthly rainfall and humidity time series, and a cycle on the order of 3-5.5 years was also apparent in the regional air temperature time series, which is coincident with the average return interval of El Niño. Annual rates of E were significantly affected by the 2002 El Niño. Prior to this event, annual E was on average 1,011 mm/year and accounted for 52% of the annual rainfall, while after, annual E was 931 mm/year and accounted for 42% of the annual rainfall. Our data also suggest that E declined significantly over the 7-year study period while air temperature significantly increased, which was coincident with a long-term, regional warming and drying trend. These results suggest that drought and warming induced by El Niño and/or climate change cause declines in E for semi-deciduous forests of the southeast Amazon Basin.

Variations in evapotranspiration and climate for an Amazonian semi-deciduous forest over seasonal, annual, and El Niño cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vourlitis, George L.; de Souza Nogueira, José; de Almeida Lobo, Francisco; Pinto, Osvaldo Borges

2015-02-01

Tropical forests exchange large amounts of water and energy with the atmosphere and are important in controlling regional and global climate; however, climate and evaportranspiration ( E) vary significantly across multiple time scales. To better understand temporal patterns in E and climate, we measured the energy balance and meteorology of a semi-deciduous forest in the rainforest-savanna ecotone of northern Mato Grosso, Brazil, over a 7-year period and analyzed regional climate patterns over a 16-year period. Spectral analysis revealed that E and local climate exhibited consistent cycles over annual, seasonal, and weekly time scales. Annual and seasonal cycles were also apparent in the regional monthly rainfall and humidity time series, and a cycle on the order of 3-5.5 years was also apparent in the regional air temperature time series, which is coincident with the average return interval of El Niño. Annual rates of E were significantly affected by the 2002 El Niño. Prior to this event, annual E was on average 1,011 mm/year and accounted for 52 % of the annual rainfall, while after, annual E was 931 mm/year and accounted for 42 % of the annual rainfall. Our data also suggest that E declined significantly over the 7-year study period while air temperature significantly increased, which was coincident with a long-term, regional warming and drying trend. These results suggest that drought and warming induced by El Niño and/or climate change cause declines in E for semi-deciduous forests of the southeast Amazon Basin.

Catchment influence on nitrate and dissolved organic matter in Alaskan streams across a latitudinal gradient

DOE PAGES

Harms, Tamara K.; Edmonds, Jennifer W.; Genet, Hélène; ...

2016-01-10

Spatial patterns in carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles of high-latitude catchments have been linked to climate and permafrost and used to infer potential changes in biogeochemical cycles under climate warming. However, inconsistent spatial patterns across regions indicate that factors in addition to permafrost and regional climate may shape responses of C and N cycles to climate change. In this paper, we hypothesized that physical attributes of catchments modify responses of C and N cycles to climate and permafrost. We measured dissolved organic C (DOC) and nitrate (NO 3 ¯) concentrations, and composition of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in 21more » streams spanning boreal to arctic Alaska, and assessed permafrost, topography, and attributes of soils and vegetation as predictors of stream chemistry. Multiple regression analyses indicated that catchment slope is a primary driver, with lower DOC and higher NO 3 ¯ concentration in streams draining steeper catchments, respectively. Depth of the active layer explained additional variation in concentration of DOC and NO 3 ¯. Vegetation type explained regional variation in concentration and composition of DOM, which was characterized by optical methods. Composition of DOM was further correlated with attributes of soils, including moisture, temperature, and thickness of the organic layer. Finally, regional patterns of DOC and NO 3 ¯ concentrations in boreal to arctic Alaska were driven primarily by catchment topography and modified by permafrost, whereas composition of DOM was driven by attributes of soils and vegetation, suggesting that predicting changes to C and N cycling from permafrost-influenced regions should consider catchment setting in addition to dynamics of climate and permafrost.« less

Orbital Forcing driving climate variability on Tropical South Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliveira, A. S.; Baker, P. A.; Silva, C. G.; Dwyer, G. S.; Chiessi, C. M.; Rigsby, C. A.; Ferreira, F.

2017-12-01

Past research on climate response to orbital forcing in tropical South America has emphasized on high precession cycles influencing low latitude hydrologic cycles, and driving the meridional migration of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).However, marine proxy records from the tropical Pacific Ocean showed a strong 41-ka periodicities in Pleistocene seawater temperature and productivity related to fluctuations in Earth's obliquity. It Indicates that the western Pacific ITCZ migration was influenced by combined precession and obliquity changes. To reconstruct different climate regimes over the continent and understand the orbital cycle forcing over Tropical South America climate, hydrological reconstruction have been undertaken on sediment cores located on the Brazilian continental slope, representing the past 1.6 million years. Core CDH 79 site is located on a 2345 m deep seamount on the northern Brazilian continental slope (00° 39.6853' N, 44° 20.7723' W), 320 km from modern coastline of the Maranhão Gulf. High-resolution XRF analyses of Fe, Ti, K and Ca are used to define the changes in precipitation and sedimentary input history of Tropical South America. The response of the hydrology cycle to orbital forcing was studied using spectral analysis.The 1600 ka records of dry/wet conditions presented here indicates that orbital time-scale climate change has been a dominant feature of tropical climate. We conclude that the observed oscillation reflects variability in the ITCZ activity associated with the Earth's tilt. The prevalence of the eccentricity and obliquity signals in continental hydrology proxies (Ti/Ca and Fe/K) as implicated in our precipitation records, highlights that these orbital forcings play an important role in tropics hydrologic cycles. Throughout the Quaternary abrupt shifts of tropical variability are temporally correlated with abrupt climate changes and atmospheric reorganization during Mid-Pleistocene Transition and Mid-Brunhes Events. Our findings suggets that over Late Quaternary, the N-S ITCZ movement is not only exclusively related to precessional forcing. The prevalence of the obliquity signal in both precipitation and weathering as implicated in our records, highlights that this orbital forcing exerts a significant control on global hydrological cycle.

A 12-year (1987-1998) Ensemble Simulation of the US Climate with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.; Takacs, Lawrence L.; Govindaraju, Ravi C.

2002-01-01

The variable-resolution stretched-grid (SG) GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) GCM has been used for limited ensemble integrations with a relatively coarse, 60 to 100 km, regional resolution over the U.S. The experiments have been run for the 12-year period, 1987-1998, that includes the recent ENSO cycles. Initial conditions 1-2 days apart are used for ensemble members. The goal of the experiments is analyzing the long-term SG-GCM ensemble integrations in terms of their potential in reducing the uncertainties of regional climate simulation while producing realistic mesoscales. The ensemble integration results are analyzed for both prognostic and diagnostic fields. A special attention is devoted to analyzing the variability of precipitation over the U.S. The internal variability of the SG-GCM has been assessed. The ensemble means appear to be closer to the verifying analyses than the individual ensemble members. The ensemble means capture realistic mesoscale patterns, especially those of induced by orography. Two ENSO cycles have been analyzed in terms their impact on the U.S. climate, especially on precipitation. The ability of the SG-GCM simulations to produce regional climate anomalies has been confirmed. However, the optimal size of the ensembles depending on fine regional resolution used, is still to be determined. The SG-GCM ensemble simulations are performed as a preparation or a preliminary stage for the international SGMIP (Stretched-Grid Model Intercomparison Project) that is under way with participation of the major centers and groups employing the SG-approach for regional climate modeling.

A Decade-long Continental-Scale Convection-Resolving Climate Simulation on GPUs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leutwyler, David; Fuhrer, Oliver; Lapillonne, Xavier; Lüthi, Daniel; Schär, Christoph

2016-04-01

The representation of moist convection in climate models represents a major challenge, due to the small scales involved. Convection-resolving models have proven to be very useful tools in numerical weather prediction and in climate research. Using horizontal grid spacings of O(1km), they allow to explicitly resolve deep convection leading to an improved representation of the water cycle. However, due to their extremely demanding computational requirements, they have so far been limited to short simulations and/or small computational domains. Innovations in the supercomputing domain have led to new supercomputer-designs that involve conventional multicore CPUs and accelerators such as graphics processing units (GPUs). One of the first atmospheric models that has been fully ported to GPUs is the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling weather and climate model COSMO. This new version allows us to expand the size of the simulation domain to areas spanning continents and the time period up to one decade. We present results from a decade-long, convection-resolving climate simulation using the GPU-enabled COSMO version. The simulation is driven by the ERA-interim reanalysis. The results illustrate how the approach allows for the representation of interactions between synoptic-scale and meso-scale atmospheric circulations at scales ranging from 1000 to 10 km. We discuss the performance of the convection-resolving modeling approach on the European scale. Specifically we focus on the annual cycle of convection in Europe, on the organization of convective clouds and on the verification of hourly rainfall with various high resolution datasets.

Earth's changing global atmospheric energy cycle in response to climate change

PubMed Central

Pan, Yefeng; Li, Liming; Jiang, Xun; Li, Gan; Zhang, Wentao; Wang, Xinyue; Ingersoll, Andrew P.

2017-01-01

The Lorenz energy cycle is widely used to investigate atmospheres and climates on planets. However, the long-term temporal variations of such an energy cycle have not yet been explored. Here we use three independent meteorological data sets from the modern satellite era, to examine the temporal characteristics of the Lorenz energy cycle of Earth's global atmosphere in response to climate change. The total mechanical energy of the global atmosphere basically remains constant with time, but the global-average eddy energies show significant positive trends. The spatial investigations suggest that these positive trends are concentrated in the Southern Hemisphere. Significant positive trends are also found in the conversion, generation and dissipation rates of energies. The positive trends in the dissipation rates of kinetic energies suggest that the efficiency of the global atmosphere as a heat engine increased during the modern satellite era. PMID:28117324

Integrated Assessment of Carbon Dioxide Removal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rickels, W.; Reith, F.; Keller, D.; Oschlies, A.; Quaas, M. F.

2018-03-01

To maintain the chance of keeping the average global temperature increase below 2°C and to limit long-term climate change, removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (carbon dioxide removal, CDR) is becoming increasingly necessary. We analyze optimal and cost-effective climate policies in the dynamic integrated assessment model (IAM) of climate and the economy (DICE2016R) and investigate (1) the utilization of (ocean) CDR under different climate objectives, (2) the sensitivity of policies with respect to carbon cycle feedbacks, and (3) how well carbon cycle feedbacks are captured in the carbon cycle models used in state-of-the-art IAMs. Overall, the carbon cycle model in DICE2016R shows clear improvements compared to its predecessor, DICE2013R, capturing much better long-term dynamics and also oceanic carbon outgassing due to excess oceanic storage of carbon from CDR. However, this comes at the cost of a (too) tight short-term remaining emission budget, limiting the model suitability to analyze low-emission scenarios accurately. With DICE2016R, the compliance with the 2°C goal is no longer feasible without negative emissions via CDR. Overall, the optimal amount of CDR has to take into account (1) the emission substitution effect and (2) compensation for carbon cycle feedbacks.

Altitudinal and climatic associations of seed dormancy and flowering traits evidence adaptation of annual life cycle timing in Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Vidigal, Deborah S; Marques, Alexandre C S S; Willems, Leo A J; Buijs, Gonda; Méndez-Vigo, Belén; Hilhorst, Henk W M; Bentsink, Leónie; Picó, F Xavier; Alonso-Blanco, Carlos

2016-08-01

The temporal control or timing of the life cycle of annual plants is presumed to provide adaptive strategies to escape harsh environments for survival and reproduction. This is mainly determined by the timing of germination, which is controlled by the level of seed dormancy, and of flowering initiation. However, the environmental factors driving the evolution of plant life cycles remain largely unknown. To address this question we have analysed nine quantitative life history traits, in a native regional collection of 300 wild accessions of Arabidopsis thaliana. Seed dormancy and flowering time were negatively correlated, indicating that these traits have coevolved. In addition, environmental-phenotypic analyses detected strong altitudinal and climatic clines for most life history traits. Overall, accessions showing life cycles with early flowering, small seeds, high seed dormancy and slow germination rate were associated with locations exposed to high temperature, low summer precipitation and high radiation. Furthermore, we analysed the expression level of the positive regulator of seed dormancy DELAY OF GERMINATION 1 (DOG1), finding similar but weaker altitudinal and climatic patterns than seed dormancy. Therefore, DOG1 regulatory mutations are likely to provide a quantitative molecular mechanism for the adaptation of A. thaliana life cycle to altitude and climate. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Marked genetic divergence among sky island populations of Sedum lanceolatum (Crassulaceae) in the Rocky Mountains.

PubMed

Dechaine, Eric G; Martin, Andrew P

2005-03-01

Climate change during the Quaternary played an important role in the differentiation and evolution of plants. A prevailing hypothesis is that alpine and arctic species survived glacial periods in refugia at the periphery of glaciers. Though the Rocky Mountains, south of the southernmost extent of continental ice, served as an important glacial refuge, little is known about how climate cycles influenced populations within this region. We inferred the phylogeography of Sedum lanceolatum (Crassulaceae) within the Rocky Mountain refugium to assess how this high-elevation plant responded to glacial cycles. We sequenced 884 base pairs (bp) of cpDNA intergenic spacers (tRNA-L to tRNA-F and tRNA-S to tRNA-G) for 333 individuals from 18 alpine populations. Our highly variable markers allowed us to infer that populations persisted across the latitudinal range throughout the climate cycles, exhibited significant genetic structure, and experienced cycles of range expansion and fragmentation. Genetic differentiation in S. lanceolatum was most likely a product of short-distance elevational migration in response to climate change, low seed dispersal, and vegetative reproduction. To the extent that Sedum is a good model system, paleoclimatic cycles were probably a major factor preserving genetic variation and promoting divergence in high-elevation flora of the Rocky Mountains.

Global water cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Christy, John R.; Goodman, Steven J.; Miller, Tim L.; Fitzjarrald, Dan; Lapenta, Bill; Wang, Shouping

1991-01-01

The primary objective is to determine the scope and interactions of the global water cycle with all components of the Earth system and to understand how it stimulates and regulates changes on both global and regional scales. The following subject areas are covered: (1) water vapor variability; (2) multi-phase water analysis; (3) diabatic heating; (4) MSU (Microwave Sounding Unit) temperature analysis; (5) Optimal precipitation and streamflow analysis; (6) CCM (Community Climate Model) hydrological cycle; (7) CCM1 climate sensitivity to lower boundary forcing; and (8) mesoscale modeling of atmosphere/surface interaction.

Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGuire, A. David; Anderson, Leif G.; Christensen, Torben R.; Dallimore, Scott; Guo, Laodong; Hayes, Daniel J.; Heimann, Martin; Lorenson, T.D.; Macdonald, Robie W.; Roulet, Nigel

2009-01-01

The recent warming in the Arctic is affecting a broad spectrum of physical, ecological, and human/cultural systems that may be irreversible on century time scales and have the potential to cause rapid changes in the earth system. The response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to changes in climate is a major issue of global concern, yet there has not been a comprehensive review of the status of the contemporary carbon cycle of the Arctic and its response to climate change. This review is designed to clarify key uncertainties and vulnerabilities in the response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to ongoing climatic change. While it is clear that there are substantial stocks of carbon in the Arctic, there are also significant uncertainties associated with the magnitude of organic matter stocks contained in permafrost and the storage of methane hydrates beneath both subterranean and submerged permafrost of the Arctic. In the context of the global carbon cycle, this review demonstrates that the Arctic plays an important role in the global dynamics of both CO2 and CH4. Studies suggest that the Arctic has been a sink for atmospheric CO2 of between 0 and 0.8 Pg C/yr in recent decades, which is between 0% and 25% of the global net land/ocean flux during the 1990s. The Arctic is a substantial source of CH4 to the atmosphere (between 32 and 112 Tg CH4/yr), primarily because of the large area of wetlands throughout the region. Analyses to date indicate that the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic during the remainder of the 21st century is highly uncertain. To improve the capability to assess the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to projected climate change, we recommend that (1) integrated regional studies be conducted to link observations of carbon dynamics to the processes that are likely to influence those dynamics, and (2) the understanding gained from these integrated studies be incorporated into both uncoupled and fully coupled carbon–climate modeling efforts.

Implications of changing water cycle for the performance and yield characteristics of the multi-purpose Beas Reservoir in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adeloye, A. J.; Ojha, C. S.; Soundharajan, B.; Remesan, R.

2013-12-01

There is considerable change in both the spatial and temporal patterns of monsoon rainfall in India, with implications for water resources availability and security. 'Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on India Agriculture' (MICCI) is one of five on-going scientific efforts being sponsored as part of the UK-NERC/India-MOES Changing Water Cycle (South Asia) initiative to further the understanding of the problem and proffer solutions that are robust and effective. This paper focuses on assessing the implications of projected climate change on the yield and performance characteristics of the Pong Reservoir on the Beas River, Himachal Pradesh, India. The Pong serves both hydropower and irrigation needs and is therefore strategic for the socio-economic well-being of the region as well as sustaining the livelihoods of millions of farmers that rely on it for irrigation. Simulated baseline and climate-change perturbed hydro-climate scenarios developed as part of a companion Work Package of MICCI formed the basis of the analysis. For both of these scenarios, reservoir analyses were carried out using the Sequent Peak Algorithm (SPA) and Pong's existing level of releases to derive rule curves for the reservoir. These rule curves then formed the basis of further reservoir behaviour simulations in WEAP and the resulting performance of the reservoir was summarised in terms of reliability, resilience, vulnerability and sustainability. The whole exercise was implemented within a Monte Carlo framework for the benefit of characterising the variability in the assessments. The results show that the rule curves developed using future hydro-climate are significantly changed from the baseline in that higher storages will be required to be maintained in the Pong in the future to achieve reliable performance. As far as the overall performance of the reservoir is concerned, future reliability (both time-based and volume-based) is not significantly different from the baseline, provided the future simulations adopt the future rule curves. This is, however, not the case with the resilience, with the future hydro-climate resulting in a less resilient system when compared with the baseline. The resilience is the ability of the system to recover from a hydrological failure; consequently, lower resilience for the future systems is an indication that longer, continuous failure periods are likely with implications for the two purposes of the reservoir. For example, extended periods of water scarcity that may result from a low resilient system will mean that crops are likely to experience longer periods of water stress with implications for crop yields. In such situations, better operational practices that manage the available water through hedging and irrigation water scheduling will be required. Other interventions may include the introduction of water from other sources, e.g. groundwater.

Long-term on-farm participatory maize breeding by stratified mass selection retains molecular diversity while improving agronomic performance.

PubMed

Alves, Mara Lisa; Belo, Maria; Carbas, Bruna; Brites, Cláudia; Paulo, Manuel; Mendes-Moreira, Pedro; Brites, Carla; Bronze, Maria do Rosário; Šatović, Zlatko; Vaz Patto, Maria Carlota

2018-02-01

Modern maize breeding programs gave rise to genetically uniform varieties that can affect maize's capacity to cope with increasing climate unpredictability. Maize populations, genetically more heterogeneous, can evolve and better adapt to a broader range of edaphic-climatic conditions. These populations usually suffer from low yields; it is therefore desirable to improve their agronomic performance while maintaining their valuable diversity levels. With this objective, a long-term participatory breeding/on-farm conservation program was established in Portugal. In this program, maize populations were subject to stratified mass selection. This work aimed to estimate the effect of on-farm stratified mass selection on the agronomic performance, quality, and molecular diversity of two historical maize populations. Multilocation field trials, comparing the initial populations with the derived selection cycles, showed that this selection methodology led to agronomic improvement for one of the populations. The molecular diversity analysis, using microsatellites, revealed that overall genetic diversity in both populations was maintained throughout selection. The comparison of quality parameters between the initial populations and the derived selection cycles was made using kernel from a common-garden experiment. This analysis showed that the majority of the quality traits evaluated progressed erratically over time. In conclusion, this breeding approach, through simple and low-cost methodologies, proved to be an alternative strategy for genetic resources' on-farm conservation.

Climate-methane cycle feedback in global climate model model simulations forced by RCP scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliseev, Alexey V.; Denisov, Sergey N.; Arzhanov, Maxim M.; Mokhov, Igor I.

2013-04-01

Methane cycle module of the global climate model of intermediate complexity developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM) is extended by coupling with a detailed module for thermal and hydrological processes in soil (Deep Soil Simulator, (Arzhanov et al., 2008)). This is an important improvement with respect with the earlier IAP RAS CM version (Eliseev et al., 2008) which has employed prescribed soil hydrology to simulate CH4 emissions from soil. Geographical distribution of water inundated soil in the model was also improved by replacing the older Olson's ecosystem data base by the data based on the SCIAMACHY retrievals (Bergamaschi et al., 2007). New version of the IAP RAS CM module for methane emissions from soil is validated by using the simulation protocol adopted in the WETCHIMP (Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project). In addition, atmospheric part of the IAP RAS CM methane cycle is extended by temperature dependence of the methane life-time in the atmosphere in order to mimic the respective dependence of the atmospheric methane chemistry (Denisov et al., 2012). The IAP RAS CM simulations are performed for the 18th-21st centuries according with the CMIP5 protocol taking into account natural and anthropogenic forcings. The new IAP RAS CM version realistically reproduces pre-industrial and present-day characteristics of the global methane cycle including CH4 concentration qCH4 in the atmosphere and CH4 emissions from soil. The latter amounts 150 - 160 TgCH4-yr for the late 20th century and increases to 170 - 230 TgCH4-yr in the late 21st century. Atmospheric methane concentration equals 3900 ppbv under the most aggressive anthropogenic scenario RCP 8.5 and 1850 - 1980 ppbv under more moderate scenarios RCP 6.0 and RCP 4.5. Under the least aggressive scenario RCP 2.6 qCH4 reaches maximum 1730 ppbv in 2020s and declines afterwards. Climate change impact on the methane emissions from soil enhances build up of the methane stock in the atmosphere by 10 - 25% depending on anthropogenic scenario and time instant. In turn, decrease of methane life-time in the atmosphere suppresses this build up by 5 - 40%. The net effect is uncertain but small in terms of resulting additional greenhouse radiative forcing. This smallness is reflected in small additional (relative to the model version with both methane emissions from soil and methane life-time in the atmosphere fixed at their preindustrial values) near-surface warming which globally is not larger than 1 K, i.e, ˜ 4% of warming exhibited by the model version neglecting climate-methane cycle interaction. References [1] M.M. Arzhanov, P.F. Demchenko, A.V. Eliseev, and I.I. Mokhov. Simulation of characteristics of thermal and hydrologic soil regimes in equilibrium numerical experiments with a climate model of intermediate complexity. Izvestiya, Atmos. Ocean. Phys., 44(5):279-287, 2008. doi: 10.1134/S0001433808050022. [2] P. Bergamaschi, C. Frankenberg, J.F. Meirink, M. Krol, F. Dentener, T. Wagner, U. Platt, J.O. Kaplan, S. Körner, M. Heimann, E.J. Dlugokencky, and A. Goede. Satellite chartography of atmospheric methane from SCIAMACHY on board ENVISAT: 2. Evaluation based on inverse model simulations. J. Geophys. Res., 112(D2):D02304, 2007. doi: 10.1029/2006JD007268. [3] S.N. Denisov, A.V. Eliseev, and I.I. Mokhov. Climate change in the IAP RAS global model with interactive methane cycle under RCP anthropogenic scenarios. Rus. Meteorol. Hydrol., 2012. [submitted]. [4] A.V. Eliseev, I.I. Mokhov, M.M. Arzhanov, P.F. Demchenko, and S.N. Denisov. Interaction of the methane cycle and processes in wetland ecosystems in a climate model of intermediate complexity. Izvestiya, Atmos. Ocean. Phys., 44(2):139-152, 2008. doi: 10.1134/S0001433808020011.

A climate sensitive model of carbon transfer through atmosphere, vegetation and soil in managed forest ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loustau, D.; Moreaux, V.; Bosc, A.; Trichet, P.; Kumari, J.; Rabemanantsoa, T.; Balesdent, J.; Jolivet, C.; Medlyn, B. E.; Cavaignac, S.; Nguyen-The, N.

2012-12-01

For predicting the future of the forest carbon cycle in forest ecosystems, it is necessary to account for both the climate and management impacts. Climate effects are significant not only at a short time scale but also at the temporal horizon of a forest life cycle e.g. through shift in atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature and precipitation regimes induced by the enhanced greenhouse effect. Intensification of forest management concerns an increasing fraction of temperate and tropical forests and untouched forests represents only one third of the present forest area. Predicting tools are therefore needed to project climate and management impacts over the forest life cycle and understand the consequence of management on the forest ecosystem carbon cycle. This communication summarizes the structure, main components and properties of a carbon transfer model that describes the processes controlling the carbon cycle of managed forest ecosystems. The model, GO+, links three main components, (i) a module describing the vegetation-atmosphere mass and energy exchanges in 3D, (ii) a plant growth module and a (iii) soil carbon dynamics module in a consistent carbon scheme of transfer from atmosphere back into the atmosphere. It was calibrated and evaluated using observed data collected on coniferous and broadleaved forest stands. The model predicts the soil, water and energy balance of entire rotations of managed stands from the plantation to the final cut and according to a range of management alternatives. It accounts for the main soil and vegetation management operations such as soil preparation, understorey removal, thinnings and clearcutting. Including the available knowledge on the climatic sensitivity of biophysical and biogeochemical processes involved in atmospheric exchanges and carbon cycle of forest ecosystems, GO+ can produce long-term backward or forward simulations of forest carbon and water cycles under a range of climate and management scenarios. This model applications to the prediction and analysis of climate scenarios impacts on southwestern European forests underlines the role of management alternatives, precipitation regime, CO2 concentration and atmospheric humidity .Frequency of soil preparation operations and understorey management play a major role in controlling the net carbon flux into the atmosphere at the juvenile stage ( 0 to 10 y-old) whereas climate and rotation duration control the functioning of adult phase. The model predicts that a drier and warmer climate will reduce the forest productivity and deplete soil and carbon stocks in managed forest from Southwestern Europe within decades, such effects being amplified for most intensive management alternatives. This work was part of the European research project GHG-Europe (EU contract No. 244122) and the French national project FAST co-funded by the Ecology, Agriculture and Forestry Ministries and the Region Aquitaine.

Carbon assimilation and transfer through kelp forests in the NE Atlantic is diminished under a warmer ocean climate.

PubMed

Pessarrodona, Albert; Moore, Pippa J; Sayer, Martin D J; Smale, Dan A

2018-06-03

Global climate change is affecting carbon cycling by driving changes in primary productivity and rates of carbon fixation, release and storage within Earth's vegetated systems. There is, however, limited understanding of how carbon flow between donor and recipient habitats will respond to climatic changes. Macroalgal-dominated habitats, such as kelp forests, are gaining recognition as important carbon donors within coastal carbon cycles, yet rates of carbon assimilation and transfer through these habitats are poorly resolved. Here, we investigated the likely impacts of ocean warming on coastal carbon cycling by quantifying rates of carbon assimilation and transfer in Laminaria hyperborea kelp forests-one of the most extensive coastal vegetated habitat types in the NE Atlantic-along a latitudinal temperature gradient. Kelp forests within warm climatic regimes assimilated, on average, more than three times less carbon and donated less than half the amount of particulate carbon compared to those from cold regimes. These patterns were not related to variability in other environmental parameters. Across their wider geographical distribution, plants exhibited reduced sizes toward their warm-water equatorward range edge, further suggesting that carbon flow is reduced under warmer climates. Overall, we estimated that Laminaria hyperborea forests stored ~11.49 Tg C in living biomass and released particulate carbon at a rate of ~5.71 Tg C year -1 . This estimated flow of carbon was markedly higher than reported values for most other marine and terrestrial vegetated habitat types in Europe. Together, our observations suggest that continued warming will diminish the amount of carbon that is assimilated and transported through temperate kelp forests in NE Atlantic, with potential consequences for the coastal carbon cycle. Our findings underline the need to consider climate-driven changes in the capacity of ecosystems to fix and donate carbon when assessing the impacts of climate change on carbon cycling. © 2018 The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Simulating carbon and water cycles of larch forests in East Asia by the BIOME-BGC model with AsiaFlux data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ueyama, M.; Ichii, K.; Hirata, R.; Takagi, K.; Asanuma, J.; Machimura, T.; Nakai, Y.; Ohta, T.; Saigusa, N.; Takahashi, Y.; Hirano, T.

2010-03-01

Larch forests are widely distributed across many cool-temperate and boreal regions, and they are expected to play an important role in global carbon and water cycles. Model parameterizations for larch forests still contain large uncertainties owing to a lack of validation. In this study, a process-based terrestrial biosphere model, BIOME-BGC, was tested for larch forests at six AsiaFlux sites and used to identify important environmental factors that affect the carbon and water cycles at both temporal and spatial scales. The model simulation performed with the default deciduous conifer parameters produced results that had large differences from the observed net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (RE), and evapotranspiration (ET). Therefore, we adjusted several model parameters in order to reproduce the observed rates of carbon and water cycle processes. This model calibration, performed using the AsiaFlux data, substantially improved the model performance. The simulated annual GPP, RE, NEE, and ET from the calibrated model were highly consistent with observed values. The observed and simulated GPP and RE across the six sites were positively correlated with the annual mean air temperature and annual total precipitation. On the other hand, the simulated carbon budget was partly explained by the stand disturbance history in addition to the climate. The sensitivity study indicated that spring warming enhanced the carbon sink, whereas summer warming decreased it across the larch forests. The summer radiation was the most important factor that controlled the carbon fluxes in the temperate site, but the VPD and water conditions were the limiting factors in the boreal sites. One model parameter, the allocation ratio of carbon between belowground and aboveground, was site-specific, and it was negatively correlated with the annual climate of annual mean air temperature and total precipitation. Although this study substantially improved the model performance, the uncertainties that remained in terms of the sensitivity to water conditions should be examined in ongoing and long-term observations.

Simulating carbon and water cycles of larch forests in East Asia by the BIOME-BGC model with AsiaFlux data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ueyama, M.; Ichii, K.; Hirata, R.; Takagi, K.; Asanuma, J.; Machimura, T.; Nakai, Y.; Ohta, T.; Saigusa, N.; Takahashi, Y.; Hirano, T.

2009-08-01

Larch forests are widely distributed across many cool-temperate and boreal regions, and they are expected to play an important role in global carbon and water cycles. Model parameterizations for larch forests still contain large uncertainties owing to a lack of validation. In this study, a process-based terrestrial biosphere model, BIOME-BGC, was tested for larch forests at six AsiaFlux sites and used to identify important environmental factors that affect the carbon and water cycles at both temporal and spatial scales. The model simulation performed with the default deciduous conifer parameters produced results that had large differences from the observed net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (RE), and evapotranspiration (ET). Therefore, we adjusted several model parameters in order to reproduce the observed rates of carbon and water cycle processes. This model calibration, performed using the AsiaFlux data, significantly improved the model performance. The simulated annual GPP, RE, NEE, and ET from the calibrated model were highly consistent with observed values. The observed and simulated GPP and RE across the six sites are positively correlated with the annual mean air temperature and annual total precipitation. On the other hand, the simulated carbon budget is partly explained by the stand disturbance history in addition to the climate. The sensitivity study indicates that spring warming enhances the carbon sink, whereas summer warming decreases it across the larch forests. The summer radiation is the most important factor that controls the carbon fluxes in the temperate site, but the VPD and water conditions are the limiting factors in the boreal sites. One model parameter, the allocation ratio of carbon between aboveground and belowground, is site-specific, and it is negatively correlated with the annual climate of annual mean air temperature and total precipitation. Although this study significantly improves the model performance, the uncertainties that remain in terms of the sensitivity to water conditions should be examined in ongoing and long-term observations.

Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations - the EALCO model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Zhang, Y.; Trishchenko, A.

2004-05-01

Ecosystems are intrinsically dynamic and interact with climate at a highly integrated level. Climate variables are the main driving factors in controlling the ecosystem physical, physiological, and biogeochemical processes including energy balance, water balance, photosynthesis, respiration, and nutrient cycling. On the other hand, ecosystems function as an integrity and feedback on the climate system through their control on surface radiation balance, energy partitioning, and greenhouse gases exchange. To improve our capability in climate change impact assessment, a comprehensive ecosystem model is required to address the many interactions between climate change and ecosystems. In addition, different ecosystems can have very different responses to the climate change and its variation. To provide more scientific support for ecosystem impact assessment at national scale, it is imperative that ecosystem models have the capability of assimilating the large scale geospatial information including satellite observations, GIS datasets, and climate model outputs or reanalysis. The EALCO model (Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations) is developed for such purposes. EALCO includes the comprehensive interactions among ecosystem processes and climate, and assimilates a variety of remote sensing products and GIS database. It provides both national and local scale model outputs for ecosystem responses to climate change including radiation and energy balances, water conditions and hydrological cycles, carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas exchange, and nutrient (N) cycling. These results form the foundation for the assessment of climate change impact on ecosystems, their services, and adaptation options. In this poster, the main algorithms for the radiation, energy, water, carbon, and nitrogen simulations were diagrammed. Sample input data layers at Canada national scale were illustrated. Model outputs including the Canada wide spatial distributions of net radiation, evapotranspiration, gross primary production, net primary production, and net ecosystem production were discussed.

Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, P. M.; Betts, R. A.; Collins, M.; Harris, P. P.; Huntingford, C.; Jones, C. D.

The first GCM climate change projections to include dynamic vegetation and an interactive carbon cycle produced a very significant amplification of global warming over the 21st century. Under the IS92a ``business as usual'' emissions scenario CO2 concentrations reached about 980ppmv by 2100, which is about 280ppmv higher than when these feedbacks were ignored. The major contribution to the increased CO2 arose from reductions in soil carbon because global warming is assumed to accelerate respiration. However, there was also a lesser contribution from an alarming loss of the Amazonian rainforest. This paper describes the phenomenon of Amazonian forest dieback under elevated CO2 in the Hadley Centre climate-carbon cycle model.

Global Water Cycle Agreement in the Climate Models Assessed in the IPCC AR4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waliser, D.; Seo, K. -W.; Schubert, S.; Njoku, E.

2007-01-01

This study examines the fidelity of the global water cycle in the climate model simulations assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The results demonstrate good model agreement in quantities that have had a robust global observational basis and that are physically unambiguous. The worst agreement occurs for quantities that have both poor observational constraints and whose model representations can be physically ambiguous. In addition, components involving water vapor (frozen water) typically exhibit the best (worst) agreement, and fluxes typically exhibit better agreement than reservoirs. These results are discussed in relation to the importance of obtaining accurate model representation of the water cycle and its role in climate change. Recommendations are also given for facilitating the needed model improvements.

Implications of plant acclimation for future climate-carbon cycle feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercado, Lina; Kattge, Jens; Cox, Peter; Sitch, Stephen; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lloyd, Jon; Huntingford, Chris

2010-05-01

The response of land ecosystems to climate change and associated feedbacks are a key uncertainty in future climate prediction (Friedlingstein et al. 2006). However global models generally do not account for the acclimation of plant physiological processes to increased temperatures. Here we conduct a first global sensitivity study whereby we modify the Joint UK land Environment Simulator (JULES) to account for temperature acclimation of two main photosynthetic parameters, Vcmax and Jmax (Kattge and Knorr 2007) and plant respiration (Atkin and Tjoelker 2003). The model is then applied over the 21st Century within the IMOGEN framework (Huntingford et al. 2004). Model simulations will provide new and improved projections of biogeochemical cycling, forest resilience, and thus more accurate projections of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks and the future evolution of the Earth System. Friedlingstein P, Cox PM, Betts R et al. (2006) Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis, results from the C4MIP model intercomparison. Journal of Climate, 19, 3337-3353. Kattge J and Knorr W (2007): Temperature acclimation in a biochemical model of photosynthesis: a reanalysis of data from 36 species. Plant, Cell and Environment 30, 1176-1190 Atkin O.K and Tjoelker, M. G. (2003): Thermal acclimation and the dynamic response of plant respiration to temperature. Trends in Plant Science 8 (7), 343-351 Huntingford C, et al. (2004) Using a GCM analogue model to investigate the potential for Amazonian forest dieback. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 78, 177-185.

Climate response of the soil nitrogen cycle in three forest types of a headwater Mediterranean catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lupon, Anna; Gerber, Stefan; Sabater, Francesc; Bernal, Susana

2015-05-01

Future changes in climate may affect soil nitrogen (N) transformations, and consequently, plant nutrition and N losses from terrestrial to stream ecosystems. We investigated the response of soil N cycling to changes in soil moisture, soil temperature, and precipitation across three Mediterranean forest types (evergreen oak, beech, and riparian) by fusing a simple process-based model (which included climate modifiers for key soil N processes) with measurements of soil organic N content, mineralization, nitrification, and concentration of ammonium and nitrate. The model describes sources (atmospheric deposition and net N mineralization) and sinks (plant uptake and hydrological losses) of inorganic N from and to the 0-10 cm soil pool as well as net nitrification. For the three forest types, the model successfully recreated the magnitude and temporal pattern of soil N processes and N concentrations (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient = 0.49-0.96). Changes in soil water availability drove net N mineralization and net nitrification at the oak and beech forests, while temperature and precipitation were the strongest climatic factors for riparian soil N processes. In most cases, net N mineralization and net nitrification showed a different sensitivity to climatic drivers (temperature, soil moisture, and precipitation). Our model suggests that future climate change may have a minimal effect on the soil N cycle of these forests (<10% change in mean annual rates) because positive warming and negative drying effects on the soil N cycle may counterbalance each other.

Combining surface reanalysis and remote sensing data for monitoring evapotranspiration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marshall, M.; Tu, K.; Funk, C.; Michaelsen, J.; Williams, Pat; Williams, C.; Ardö, J.; Marie, B.; Cappelaere, B.; Grandcourt, A.; Nickless, A.; Noubellon, Y.; Scholes, R.; Kutsch, W.

2012-01-01

Climate change is expected to have the greatest impact on the world's poor. In the Sahel, a climatically sensitive region where rain-fed agriculture is the primary livelihood, expected decreases in water supply will increase food insecurity. Studies on climate change and the intensification of the water cycle in sub-Saharan Africa are few. This is due in part to poor calibration of modeled actual evapotranspiration (AET), a key input in continental-scale hydrologic models. In this study, a model driven by dynamic canopy AET was combined with the Global Land Data Assimilation System realization of the NOAH Land Surface Model (GNOAH) wet canopy and soil AET for monitoring purposes in sub-Saharan Africa. The performance of the hybrid model was compared against AET from the GNOAH model and dynamic model using eight eddy flux towers representing major biomes of sub-Saharan Africa. The greatest improvements in model performance are at humid sites with dense vegetation, while performance at semi-arid sites is poor, but better than individual models. The reduction in errors using the hybrid model can be attributed to the integration of a dynamic vegetation component with land surface model estimates, improved model parameterization, and reduction of multiplicative effects of uncertain data.

Change in seasonality in the southwest tropical Pacific during the Holocene: a data -model comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Correge, T.; Deschamps, C.; Duprey, N.; Pujol, N.; Braconnot, P.; Charlier, K.; Lazareth, C. E.; Le Cornec, F.; Malaizé, B.

2012-12-01

Our ability to successfully predict future climate change relies heavily on the improvement of climate models. One way to do so is to compare model outputs with paleodata. The aim of the French ELPASO program (El Niño in the Past: Simulations and Observations) is to conduct such comparisons in the tropics to study the evolution of ENSO in the late Pleistocene, and more particularly during the Holocene, and the link to the background climate state (including the seasonal cycle). We generated multi-decadal time series of SST derived from Sr/Ca analyses of massive Porites corals from Vanuatu dating from 10 ka, 6.8 ka, 6.2 ka and 4.2 ka. For each time series, the mean seasonal cycle was calculated and compared to simulations from the IPSL-CM4 model (Braconnot et al., 2012; Luan et al., 2012). When insolation parameters (in particular precession) are taken into account for the 9.5 ka and 6 ka simulations, the model predicts that the seasonal cycle should be reduced in the southern hemisphere and enhanced in the northern hemisphere during the early and mid Holocene. In contrast, coral data from Vanuatu indicate enhanced mean seasonal cycles at 10 ka, 6.8 ka and 6.2 ka. The coral dating from 4.2 ka is the only one showing a reduced seasonal cycle compared to the present. Various scenarios will be proposed to reconcile this discrepancy. Braconnot, P. et al. Impact of Earth's orbit and freshwater fluxes on Holocene climate mean seasonal cycle and ENSO characteristics, Clim. Dynam., 38, 1081-1092, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1029-x, 2012. Luan, Y. et al. 2012. Early and mid-Holocene climate in the tropical Pacific: seasonal cycle and interannual variability induced by insolation changes. Clim. Past, 8, 1093-1108 ; doi:10.5194/cp-8-1093-2012

Terrestrial carbon cycle affected by non-uniform climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Jianyang; Chen, Jiquan; Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Luo, Yiqi; Wan, Shiqiang

2014-03-01

Feedbacks between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate change could affect many ecosystem functions and services, such as food production, carbon sequestration and climate regulation. The rate of climate warming varies on diurnal and seasonal timescales. A synthesis of global air temperature data reveals a greater rate of warming in winter than in summer in northern mid and high latitudes, and the inverse pattern in some tropical regions. The data also reveal a decline in the diurnal temperature range over 51% of the global land area and an increase over only 13%, because night-time temperatures in most locations have risen faster than daytime temperatures. Analyses of satellite data, model simulations and in situ observations suggest that the impact of seasonal warming varies between regions. For example, spring warming has largely stimulated ecosystem productivity at latitudes between 30° and 90° N, but suppressed productivity in other regions. Contrasting impacts of day- and night-time warming on plant carbon gain and loss are apparent in many regions. We argue that ascertaining the effects of non-uniform climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems is a key challenge in carbon cycle research.

Radiative Effects of the Diurnal Cycle of Clouds and their Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, J.; Porporato, A. M.

2017-12-01

Clouds effectively control the Earth's energy budget by reflecting solar radiation and restricting the terrestrial one. While these dynamics have been regarded as one of vexing problem in understanding the climate system and have thus attracted much attention in the literature, less research has been devoted to the diurnal cycle of clouds (DCC). Here we first quantify the mean, amplitude, and phase of the cloud cycles in current climate models and compare them with satellite observations and reanalysis data. We show that the mean values appear to be reliable but the amplitude and phase of the DCC are less consistent. These inconsistencies are interpreted using a minimalist radiative balance model to demonstrate their impacts on surface temperature. The DCC radiative impacts are then analyzed in terms of phase shift and amplitude modulation of DCC and their so-called cloud radiative effects are estimated directly from climate model outputs. This allows us to show that DCC variations may account for up to 10-20% of the total cloud radiative impacts, calling for increased attention to the temporal evolution of the DCC in climate models.

The future of the North American carbon cycle - projections and associated climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntzinger, D. N.; Chatterjee, A.; Cooley, S. R.; Dunne, J. P.; Hoffman, F. M.; Luo, Y.; Moore, D. J.; Ohrel, S. B.; Poulter, B.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Tzortziou, M.; Walker, A. P.; Mayes, M. A.

2016-12-01

Approximately half of anthropogenic emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is taken up annually by carbon sinks on the land and in the oceans. However, there are key uncertainties in how carbon uptake by terrestrial, ocean, and freshwater systems will respond to, and interact with, climate into the future. Here, we outline the current state of understanding on the future carbon budget of these major reservoirs within North America and the globe. We examine the drivers of future carbon cycle changes, including carbon-climate feedbacks, atmospheric composition, nutrient availability, and human activity and management decisions. Progress has been made at identifying vulnerabilities in carbon pools, including high-latitude permafrost, peatlands, freshwater and coastal wetlands, and ecosystems subject to disturbance events, such as insects, fire and drought. However, many of these processes/pools are not well represented in current models, and model intercomparison studies have shown a range in carbon cycle response to factors such as climate and CO2 fertilization. Furthermore, as model complexity increases, understanding the drivers of model spread becomes increasingly more difficult. As a result, uncertainties in future carbon cycle projections are large. It is also uncertain how management decisions and policies will impact future carbon stocks and flows. In order to guide policy, a better understanding of the risk and magnitude of North American carbon cycle changes is needed. This requires that future carbon cycle projections be conditioned on current observations and be reported with sufficient confidence and fully specified uncertainties.

Surface ozone seasonality under global change: Influence from dry deposition and isoprene emissions at northern mid-latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clifton, O.; Paulot, F.; Fiore, A. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.; Correa, G. J. P.; Lin, M.

2017-12-01

Identifying the contributions of nonlinear chemistry and transport to observed surface ozone seasonal cycles over land using global models relies on an accurate representation of ozone uptake by vegetation (dry deposition). It is well established that in the absence of ozone precursor emission changes, a warming climate will increase surface ozone in polluted regions, and that a rise in temperature-dependent isoprene emissions would exacerbate this "climate penalty". However, the influence of changes in ozone dry deposition, expected to evolve with climate and land use, is often overlooked in air quality projections. With a new scheme that represents dry deposition within the NOAA GFDL dynamic vegetation land model (LM3) coupled to the NOAA GFDL atmospheric chemistry-climate model (AM3), we simulate the impact of 21st century climate and land use on ozone dry deposition and isoprene emissions. This dry deposition parameterization is a version of the Wesely scheme, but uses parameters explicitly calculated by LM3 that respond to climate and land use (e.g., stomatal conductance, canopy interception of water, leaf area index). The parameterization includes a nonstomatal deposition dependence on humidity. We evaluate climatological present-day seasonal cycles of ozone deposition velocities and abundances with those observed at northern mid-latitude sites. With a set of 2010s and 2090s decadal simulations under a high climate warming scenario (RCP8.5) and a sensitivity simulation with well-mixed greenhouse gases following RCP8.5 but air pollutants held at 2010 levels (RCP8.5_WMGG), we examine changes in surface ozone seasonal cycles. We build on our previous findings, which indicate that strong reductions in anthropogenic NOx emissions under RCP8.5 cause the surface ozone seasonal cycle over the NE USA to reverse, shifting from a summer peak at present to a winter peak by 2100. Under RCP8.5_WMGG, we parse the separate effects of climate and land use on ozone dry deposition vs. isoprene emissions to quantify the impact of each process on surface ozone seasonal cycles and compare to the changes induced by declining anthropogenic NOx emissions (RCP8.5).

Abrupt shifts in phenology and vegetation productivity under climate extremes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Amplification of the hydrologic cycle as a consequence of global warming is predicted to increase climate variability and the frequency and severity of droughts. Predicting how ecosystems will be affected by climate change requires not only reliable forecasts of future climate, but also observationa...

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Ross River virus incidence in Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Done, Sinead J; Holbrook, Neil J; Beggs, Paul J

2002-09-01

Ross River virus (RRV) is the most important vector-borne disease in Australia. The National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System has confirmed that its incidence is often greatest in the state of Queensland, where there is a clear seasonal pattern as well as interannual variability. Previous studies have examined relationships between large-scale climate fluctuations (such as El Niño Southern Oscillation) and vector-borne disease. No previous study has examined such relationships with the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), another large-scale climate fluctuation. We employ time-series analysis techniques to investigate cycles inherent in monthly RRV incidence in Queensland, Australia, from January 1991 to December 1997 inclusive. The presence of a quasi-biennial cycle in the RRV time series that is out of phase with the climatic QBO is described. Quantitative analyses using correlograms and periodograms demonstrate that the quasi-biennial cycle in the RRV time series is statistically significant, at the 95% level, above the noise. Together with the seasonal cycle, the quasi-biennial cycle accounts for 77% of the variance in Queensland RRV cases. Regression analysis of QBO and summer rainfall in three climatic zones of Queensland indicates a significant association between QBO and rainfall in the subtropical southeastern part of the state. These results suggest an indirect influence of the QBO on RRV incidence in Queensland, via its influence on climate in this region. Our findings indicate that the QBO may be a useful predictor of RRV at several months lead, and might be used by public health authorities in the management and prevention of this disease.

Large-Scale and Global Hydrology. Chapter 92

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodell, Matthew; Beaudoing, Hiroko Kato; Koster, Randal; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Famiglietti, James S.; Lakshmi, Venkat

2016-01-01

Powered by the sun, water moves continuously between and through Earths oceanic, atmospheric, and terrestrial reservoirs. It enables life, shapes Earths surface, and responds to and influences climate change. Scientists measure various features of the water cycle using a combination of ground, airborne, and space-based observations, and seek to characterize it at multiple scales with the aid of numerical models. Over time our understanding of the water cycle and ability to quantify it have improved, owing to advances in observational capabilities, the extension of the data record, and increases in computing power and storage. Here we present some of the most recent estimates of global and continental ocean basin scale water cycle stocks and fluxes and provide examples of modern numerical modeling systems and reanalyses.Further, we discuss prospects for predicting water cycle variability at seasonal and longer scales, which is complicated by a changing climate and direct human impacts related to water management and agriculture. Changes to the water cycle will be among the most obvious and important facets of climate change, thus it is crucial that we continue to invest in our ability to monitor it.

Broadening GHG accounting with LCA: application to a waste management business unit.

PubMed

Fallaha, Sophie; Martineau, Geneviève; Bécaert, Valérie; Margni, Manuele; Deschênes, Louise; Samson, Réjean; Aoustin, Emmanuelle

2009-11-01

In an effort to obtain the most accurate climate change impact assessment, greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting is evolving to include life-cycle thinking. This study (1) identifies similarities and key differences between GHG accounting and life-cycle assessment (LCA), (2) compares them on a consistent basis through a case study on a waste management business unit. First, GHG accounting is performed. According to the GHG Protocol, annual emissions are categorized into three scopes: direct GHG emissions (scope 1), indirect emissions related to electricity, heat and steam production (scope 2) and other indirect emissions (scope 3). The LCA is then structured into a comparable framework: each LCA process is disaggregated into these three scopes, the annual operating activities are assessed, and the environmental impacts are determined using the IMPACT2002+ method. By comparing these two approaches it is concluded that both LCA and GHG accounting provide similar climate change impact results as the same major GHG contributors are determined for scope 1 emissions. The emissions from scope 2 appear negligible whereas emissions from scope 3 cannot be neglected since they contribute to around 10% of the climate change impact of the waste management business unit. This statement is strengthened by the fact that scope 3 generates 75% of the resource use damage and 30% of the ecosystem quality damage categories. The study also shows that LCA can help in setting up the framework for a annual GHG accounting by determining the major climate change contributors.

Convergence of soil nitrogen isotopes across global climate gradients

USGS Publications Warehouse

Craine, Joseph M.; Elmore, Andrew J.; Wang, Lixin; Augusto, Laurent; Baisden, W. Troy; Brookshire, E. N. J.; Cramer, Michael D.; Hasselquist, Niles J.; Hobbie, Erik A.; Kahmen, Ansgar; Koba, Keisuke; Kranabetter, J. Marty; Mack, Michelle C.; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Mayor, Jordan R.; McLauchlan, Kendra K.; Michelsen, Anders; Nardoto, Gabriela B.; Oliveira, Rafael S.; Perakis, Steven S.; Peri, Pablo L.; Quesada, Carlos A.; Richter, Andreas; Schipper, Louis A.; Stevenson, Bryan A.; Turner, Benjamin L.; Viani, Ricardo A. G.; Wanek, Wolfgang; Zeller, Bernd

2015-01-01

Quantifying global patterns of terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling is central to predicting future patterns of primary productivity, carbon sequestration, nutrient fluxes to aquatic systems, and climate forcing. With limited direct measures of soil N cycling at the global scale, syntheses of the 15 N: 14 N ratio of soil organic matter across climate gradients provide key insights into understanding global patterns of N cycling. In synthesizing data from over 6000 soil samples, we show strong global relationships among soil N isotopes, mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and the concentrations of organic carbon and clay in soil. In both hot ecosystems and dry ecosystems, soil organic matter was more enriched in 15 N than in corresponding cold ecosystems or wet ecosystems. Below a MAT of 9.8°C, soil δ15N was invariant with MAT. At the global scale, soil organic C concentrations also declined with increasing MAT and decreasing MAP. After standardizing for variation among mineral soils in soil C and clay concentrations, soil δ15N showed no consistent trends across global climate and latitudinal gradients. Our analyses could place new constraints on interpretations of patterns of ecosystem N cycling and global budgets of gaseous N loss.

Oscillators and relaxation phenomena in Pleistocene climate theory

PubMed Central

Crucifix, Michel

2012-01-01

Ice sheets appeared in the northern hemisphere around 3 Ma (million years) ago and glacial–interglacial cycles have paced Earth's climate since then. Superimposed on these long glacial cycles comes an intricate pattern of millennial and sub-millennial variability, including Dansgaard–Oeschger and Heinrich events. There are numerous theories about these oscillations. Here, we review a number of them in order to draw a parallel between climatic concepts and dynamical system concepts, including, in particular, the relaxation oscillator, excitability, slow–fast dynamics and homoclinic orbits. Namely, almost all theories of ice ages reviewed here feature a phenomenon of synchronization between internal climate dynamics and astronomical forcing. However, these theories differ in their bifurcation structure and this has an effect on the way the ice age phenomenon could grow 3 Ma ago. All theories on rapid events reviewed here rely on the concept of a limit cycle excited by changes in the surface freshwater balance of the ocean. The article also reviews basic effects of stochastic fluctuations on these models, including the phenomenon of phase dispersion, shortening of the limit cycle and stochastic resonance. It concludes with a more personal statement about the potential for inference with simple stochastic dynamical systems in palaeoclimate science. PMID:22291227

Convergence of soil nitrogen isotopes across global climate gradients.

PubMed

Craine, Joseph M; Elmore, Andrew J; Wang, Lixin; Augusto, Laurent; Baisden, W Troy; Brookshire, E N J; Cramer, Michael D; Hasselquist, Niles J; Hobbie, Erik A; Kahmen, Ansgar; Koba, Keisuke; Kranabetter, J Marty; Mack, Michelle C; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Mayor, Jordan R; McLauchlan, Kendra K; Michelsen, Anders; Nardoto, Gabriela B; Oliveira, Rafael S; Perakis, Steven S; Peri, Pablo L; Quesada, Carlos A; Richter, Andreas; Schipper, Louis A; Stevenson, Bryan A; Turner, Benjamin L; Viani, Ricardo A G; Wanek, Wolfgang; Zeller, Bernd

2015-02-06

Quantifying global patterns of terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling is central to predicting future patterns of primary productivity, carbon sequestration, nutrient fluxes to aquatic systems, and climate forcing. With limited direct measures of soil N cycling at the global scale, syntheses of the (15)N:(14)N ratio of soil organic matter across climate gradients provide key insights into understanding global patterns of N cycling. In synthesizing data from over 6000 soil samples, we show strong global relationships among soil N isotopes, mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and the concentrations of organic carbon and clay in soil. In both hot ecosystems and dry ecosystems, soil organic matter was more enriched in (15)N than in corresponding cold ecosystems or wet ecosystems. Below a MAT of 9.8°C, soil δ(15)N was invariant with MAT. At the global scale, soil organic C concentrations also declined with increasing MAT and decreasing MAP. After standardizing for variation among mineral soils in soil C and clay concentrations, soil δ(15)N showed no consistent trends across global climate and latitudinal gradients. Our analyses could place new constraints on interpretations of patterns of ecosystem N cycling and global budgets of gaseous N loss.

Clothing for Sports: Part 2: Stridalongapos Loses Shorts, Wins in Style

PubMed Central

Schamberger, Wolf

1985-01-01

The choice of clothing for sports must take into account the climate, movement, ability to enhance athletic performance, safety and comfort. Part 2 of this two-part article describes the clothing needed for running, cycling, skiing, windsurfing, triathlon, aerobic dancing and hot air ballooning. ImagesFig. 1Fig. 2Fig. 3Fig. 4Fig. 5Fig. 6Fig. 7Fig. 8Fig. 9Fig. 10 PMID:21274232

Modeling Feedbacks Between Water and Vegetation in the Climate System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Not only is water essential for life on earth, but life itself affects the global hydrologic cycle and consequently the climate of the planet. Whether the global feedbacks between life and the hydrologic cycle tend to stabilize the climate system about some equilibrium level is difficult to assess. We use a global climate model to examine how the presence of vegetation can affect the hydrologic cycle in a particular region. A control for the present climate is compared with a model experiment in which the Sahara Desert is replaced by vegetation in the form of trees and shrubs common to the Sahel region. A second model experiment is designed to identify the separate roles of two different effects of vegetation, namely the modified albedo and the presence of roots that can extract moisture from deeper soil layers. The results show that the presence of vegetation leads to increases in precipitation and soil moisture in western Sahara. In eastern Sahara, the changes are less clear. The increase in soil moisture is greater when the desert albedo is replaced by the vegetation albedo than when both the vegetation albedo and roots are added. The effect of roots is to withdraw water from deeper layers during the dry season. One implication of this study is that the insertion of vegetation into the Sahara modifies the hydrologic cycle so that the vegetation is more likely to persist than initially.

Analysis of different adsorption heat transformation applications and working pairs for climatic regions of Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grekova, A. D.; Gordeeva, L. G.

2018-04-01

Adsorption heat transformation is an energy and environment saving technology for cooling/heating driven by renewable energy sources. Each specific cycle of adsorption heat transformer (AHT) makes particular requirements to the properties of the sorption material, depending on the climatic zone in which the AHT is used, the type of application (cooling, heating and heat storage), and energy source used for regenerating the sorbent. Therefore, the effective operation of AHT can be realized only if the working pair "adsorbent-adsorbate" is intelligently selected in accordance with the requirements of a particular working cycle. One of the most important factors influencing the choice of a working pair is the climatic conditions in which the AHT will operate. In this paper, the climatic conditions of various regions of Russian Federation (RF) were analyzed. For each considered zone, the boundary potentials of Polanyi corresponding to different AHT cycles are calculated. The sorption equilibrium data of various sorbents with water and methanol presented in the literature are summarized, and characteristic sorption curves are plotted in coordinates "sorption - the Polanyi potential". The characteristic adsorption curves found are approximated by analytic expressions, which allow the analysis of working pairs applicability for different AHT cycles. The recommendations of using the discussed sorption pairs under conditions of determined climatic zones are given for the AHT applications.

Relevance of hydro-climatic change projection and monitoring for assessment of water cycle changes in the Arctic.

PubMed

Bring, Arvid; Destouni, Georgia

2011-06-01

Rapid changes to the Arctic hydrological cycle challenge both our process understanding and our ability to find appropriate adaptation strategies. We have investigated the relevance and accuracy development of climate change projections for assessment of water cycle changes in major Arctic drainage basins. Results show relatively good agreement of climate model projections with observed temperature changes, but high model inaccuracy relative to available observation data for precipitation changes. Direct observations further show systematically larger (smaller) runoff than precipitation increases (decreases). This result is partly attributable to uncertainties and systematic bias in precipitation observations, but still indicates that some of the observed increase in Arctic river runoff is due to water storage changes, for example melting permafrost and/or groundwater storage changes, within the drainage basins. Such causes of runoff change affect sea level, in addition to ocean salinity, and inland water resources, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Process-based hydrological modeling and observations, which can resolve changes in evapotranspiration, and groundwater and permafrost storage at and below river basin scales, are needed in order to accurately interpret and translate climate-driven precipitation changes to changes in freshwater cycling and runoff. In contrast to this need, our results show that the density of Arctic runoff monitoring has become increasingly biased and less relevant by decreasing most and being lowest in river basins with the largest expected climatic changes.

Climate Impact and Economic Feasibility of Solar Thermochemical Jet Fuel Production.

PubMed

Falter, Christoph; Batteiger, Valentin; Sizmann, Andreas

2016-01-05

Solar thermochemistry presents a promising option for the efficient conversion of H2O and CO2 into liquid hydrocarbon fuels using concentrated solar energy. To explore the potential of this fuel production pathway, the climate impact and economic performance are analyzed. Key drivers for the economic and ecological performance are thermochemical energy conversion efficiency, the level of solar irradiation, operation and maintenance, and the initial investment in the fuel production plant. For the baseline case of a solar tower concentrator with CO2 capture from air, jet fuel production costs of 2.23 €/L and life cycle greenhouse gas (LC GHG) emissions of 0.49 kgCO2-equiv/L are estimated. Capturing CO2 from a natural gas combined cycle power plant instead of the air reduces the production costs by 15% but leads to LC GHG emissions higher than that of conventional jet fuel. Favorable assumptions for all involved process steps (30% thermochemical energy conversion efficiency, 3000 kWh/(m(2) a) solar irradiation, low CO2 and heliostat costs) result in jet fuel production costs of 1.28 €/L at LC GHG emissions close to zero. Even lower production costs may be achieved if the commercial value of oxygen as a byproduct is considered.

Impact of different climatic flows on typhoon tracks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Wei-hong; Huang, Jing

2018-04-01

A tropical cyclone (TC) vortex is considered to be embedded in and steered by a large-scale environmental flow. The environmental flow can be decomposed into two parts: temporal climatic flow and anomaly. The former is defined according to the calendar climatology with a diurnal cycle and a seasonal cycle. Thus, the temporal climatic flow of the atmosphere, which can be estimated using reanalysis data, varies with regions, altitudes, and hours. The impact of different climatic flows on TC tracks in the Northwest Pacific is examined using a simple generalized beta-advection model. Results show that the predicted tracks of two TC cases have large deviations from their best tracks in the following 1-2 days if the temporal climatic wind is replaced by other hourly climatic winds on the same calendar day or by a several-day-mean climatic wind. The track deviation is more significant when the climatic wind difference is larger than 2 m s-1. This experiment reconfirms that a TC track is influenced by temporal climatic flow and interaction with other disturbances in the vicinity.

Regime Behavior in Paleo-Reconstructed Streamflow: Attributions to Atmospheric Dynamics, Synoptic Circulation and Large-Scale Climate Teleconnection Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravindranath, A.; Devineni, N.

2017-12-01

Studies have shown that streamflow behavior and dynamics have a significant link with climate and climate variability. Patterns of persistent regime behavior from extended streamflow records in many watersheds justify investigating large-scale climate mechanisms as potential drivers of hydrologic regime behavior and streamflow variability. Understanding such streamflow-climate relationships is crucial to forecasting/simulation systems and the planning and management of water resources. In this study, hidden Markov models are used with reconstructed streamflow to detect regime-like behaviors - the hidden states - and state transition phenomena. Individual extreme events and their spatial variability across the basin are then verified with the identified states. Wavelet analysis is performed to examine the signals over time in the streamflow records. Joint analyses of the climatic data in the 20th century and the identified states are undertaken to better understand the hydroclimatic connections within the basin as well as important teleconnections that influence water supply. Compositing techniques are used to identify atmospheric circulation patterns associated with identified states of streamflow. The grouping of such synoptic patterns and their frequency are then examined. Sliding time-window correlation analysis and cross-wavelet spectral analysis are performed to establish the synchronicity of basin flows to the identified synoptic and teleconnection patterns. The Missouri River Basin (MRB) is examined in this study, both as a means of better understanding the synoptic climate controls in this important watershed and as a case study for the techniques developed here. Initial wavelet analyses of reconstructed streamflow at major gauges in the MRB show multidecadal cycles in regime behavior.

Identifying a key physical factor sensitive to the performance of Madden-Julian oscillation simulation in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Go-Un; Seo, Kyong-Hwan

2018-01-01

A key physical factor in regulating the performance of Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) simulation is examined by using 26 climate model simulations from the World Meteorological Organization's Working Group for Numerical Experimentation/Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Atmospheric System Study (WGNE and MJO-Task Force/GASS) global model comparison project. For this, intraseasonal moisture budget equation is analyzed and a simple, efficient physical quantity is developed. The result shows that MJO skill is most sensitive to vertically integrated intraseasonal zonal wind convergence (ZC). In particular, a specific threshold value of the strength of the ZC can be used as distinguishing between good and poor models. An additional finding is that good models exhibit the correct simultaneous convection and large-scale circulation phase relationship. In poor models, however, the peak circulation response appears 3 days after peak rainfall, suggesting unfavorable coupling between convection and circulation. For an improving simulation of the MJO in climate models, we propose that this delay of circulation in response to convection needs to be corrected in the cumulus parameterization scheme.

[Thermal compensation of respiration in pulmonate snails (Pulmonata) of Arion and Deroceras genera living in polar and temperate climatic zone].

PubMed

Zotin, A A; Ozerniuk, N D

2002-01-01

Comparison of respiration rate in pulmonate snails living in various climatic zones demonstrated higher constant a in representatives of Arion genus (A. subfucus and A. fasciatus) from Polar Area (Murmansk Region) as compared to inhabitants of temperate latitudes (Moscow Region). The snails of Deroceras genus (D. reticulatum) from these two climatic zones were indistinguishable by relative standard metabolism. Different effects of climatic thermal conditions on respiration rates in representatives of these two snail genera can be due to their specific biology. Representatives of Deroceras genus are short-cycle synanthropic species, while the snails of Arion genus are long-cycle species living mostly in the forest zone.

The U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bock, Andy

2017-03-16

Simulations of future climate suggest profiles of temperature and precipitation may differ significantly from those in the past. These changes in climate will likely lead to changes in the hydrologic cycle. As such, natural resource managers are in need of tools that can provide estimates of key components of the hydrologic cycle, uncertainty associated with the estimates, and limitations associated with the climate forcing data used to estimate these components. To help address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal (https://my.usgs.gov/mows/) provides a user friendly interface to deliver hydrologic and meteorological variables for monthly historic and potential future climatic conditions across the continental United States.

Terrestrial water cycle and the impact of climate change.

PubMed

Tao, Fulu; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Hayashi, Yousay; Lin, Erda

2003-06-01

The terrestrial water cycle and the impact of climate change are critical for agricultural and natural ecosystems. In this paper, we assess both by running a macro-scale water balance model under a baseline condition and 2 General Circulation Model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The results show that in 2021-2030, water demand will increase worldwide due to climate change. Water shortage is expected to worsen in western Asia, the Arabian Peninsula, northern and southern Africa, northeastern Australia, southwestern North America, and central South America. A significant increase in surface runoff is expected in southern Asia and a significant decrease is expected in northern South America. These changes will have implications for regional environment and socioeconomics.

Climate Change and Expected Impacts on the Global Water Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, David; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

How the elements of the global hydrologic cycle may respond to climate change is reviewed, first from a discussion of the physical sensitivity of these elements to changes in temperature, and then from a comparison of observations of hydrologic changes over the past 100 million years. Observations of current changes in the hydrologic cycle are then compared with projected future changes given the prospect of global warming. It is shown that some of the projections come close to matching the estimated hydrologic changes that occurred long ago when the earth was very warm.

Prospective Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of Nanosilver T-Shirts

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

A cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment (LCA) is performed to compare nanosilver T-shirts with conventional T-shirts with and without biocidal treatment. For nanosilver production and textile incorporation, we investigate two processes: flame spray pyrolysis (FSP) and plasma polymerization with silver co-sputtering (PlaSpu). Prospective environmental impacts due to increased nanosilver T-shirt commercialization are estimated with six scenarios. Results show significant differences in environmental burdens between nanoparticle production technologies: The “cradle-to-gate” climate footprint of the production of a nanosilver T-shirt is 2.70 kg of CO2-equiv (FSP) and 7.67–166 kg of CO2-equiv (PlaSpu, varying maturity stages). Production of conventional T-shirts with and without the biocide triclosan has emissions of 2.55 kg of CO2-equiv (contribution from triclosan insignificant). Consumer behavior considerably affects the environmental impacts during the use phase. Lower washing frequencies can compensate for the increased climate footprint of FSP nanosilver T-shirt production. The toxic releases from washing and disposal in the life cycle of T-shirts appear to be of minor relevance. By contrast, the production phase may be rather significant due to toxic silver emissions at the mining site if high silver quantities are required. PMID:21506582

C4MIP - The Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project: experimental protocol for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Chris D.; Arora, Vivek; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Bopp, Laurent; Brovkin, Victor; Dunne, John; Graven, Heather; Hoffman, Forrest; Ilyina, Tatiana; John, Jasmin G.; Jung, Martin; Kawamiya, Michio; Koven, Charlie; Pongratz, Julia; Raddatz, Thomas; Randerson, James T.; Zaehle, Sönke

2016-08-01

Coordinated experimental design and implementation has become a cornerstone of global climate modelling. Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) enable systematic and robust analysis of results across many models, by reducing the influence of ad hoc differences in model set-up or experimental boundary conditions. As it enters its 6th phase, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) has grown significantly in scope with the design and documentation of individual simulations delegated to individual climate science communities. The Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) takes responsibility for design, documentation, and analysis of carbon cycle feedbacks and interactions in climate simulations. These feedbacks are potentially large and play a leading-order contribution in determining the atmospheric composition in response to human emissions of CO2 and in the setting of emissions targets to stabilize climate or avoid dangerous climate change. For over a decade, C4MIP has coordinated coupled climate-carbon cycle simulations, and in this paper we describe the C4MIP simulations that will be formally part of CMIP6. While the climate-carbon cycle community has created this experimental design, the simulations also fit within the wider CMIP activity, conform to some common standards including documentation and diagnostic requests, and are designed to complement the CMIP core experiments known as the Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK). C4MIP has three key strands of scientific motivation and the requested simulations are designed to satisfy their needs: (1) pre-industrial and historical simulations (formally part of the common set of CMIP6 experiments) to enable model evaluation, (2) idealized coupled and partially coupled simulations with 1 % per year increases in CO2 to enable diagnosis of feedback strength and its components, (3) future scenario simulations to project how the Earth system will respond to anthropogenic activity over the 21st century and beyond. This paper documents in detail these simulations, explains their rationale and planned analysis, and describes how to set up and run the simulations. Particular attention is paid to boundary conditions, input data, and requested output diagnostics. It is important that modelling groups participating in C4MIP adhere as closely as possible to this experimental design.

Climate control of terrestrial carbon exchange across biomes and continents

Treesearch

Chuixiang Yi; Daniel Ricciuto; Runze Li; John Wolbeck; Xiyan Xu; Mats Nilsson; John Frank; William J. Massman

2010-01-01

Understanding the relationships between climate and carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems is critical to predict future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide because of the potential accelerating effects of positive climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. However, directly observed relationships between climate and terrestrial CO2 exchange with the atmosphere across biomes...

Reciprocating and Screw Compressor semi-empirical models for establishing minimum energy performance standards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Javed, Hassan; Armstrong, Peter

2015-08-01

The efficiency bar for a Minimum Equipment Performance Standard (MEPS) generally aims to minimize energy consumption and life cycle cost of a given chiller type and size category serving a typical load profile. Compressor type has a significant chiller performance impact. Performance of screw and reciprocating compressors is expressed in terms of pressure ratio and speed for a given refrigerant and suction density. Isentropic efficiency for a screw compressor is strongly affected by under- and over-compression (UOC) processes. The theoretical simple physical UOC model involves a compressor-specific (but sometimes unknown) volume index parameter and the real gas properties of the refrigerant used. Isentropic efficiency is estimated by the UOC model and a bi-cubic, used to account for flow, friction and electrical losses. The unknown volume index, a smoothing parameter (to flatten the UOC model peak) and bi-cubic coefficients are identified by curve fitting to minimize an appropriate residual norm. Chiller performance maps are produced for each compressor type by selecting optimized sub-cooling and condenser fan speed options in a generic component-based chiller model. SEER is the sum of hourly load (from a typical building in the climate of interest) and specific power for the same hourly conditions. An empirical UAE cooling load model, scalable to any equipment capacity, is used to establish proposed UAE MEPS. Annual electricity use and cost, determined from SEER and annual cooling load, and chiller component cost data are used to find optimal chiller designs and perform life-cycle cost comparison between screw and reciprocating compressor-based chillers. This process may be applied to any climate/load model in order to establish optimized MEPS for any country and/or region.

Missing iris effect as a possible cause of muted hydrological change and high climate sensitivity in models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauritsen, Thorsten; Stevens, Bjorn

2015-05-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 falls between 2.0 and 4.6 K in current climate models, and they suggest a weak increase in global mean precipitation. Inferences from the observational record, however, place climate sensitivity near the lower end of this range and indicate that models underestimate some of the changes in the hydrological cycle. These discrepancies raise the possibility that important feedbacks are missing from the models. A controversial hypothesis suggests that the dry and clear regions of the tropical atmosphere expand in a warming climate and thereby allow more infrared radiation to escape to space. This so-called iris effect could constitute a negative feedback that is not included in climate models. We find that inclusion of such an effect in a climate model moves the simulated responses of both temperature and the hydrological cycle to rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations closer to observations. Alternative suggestions for shortcomings of models -- such as aerosol cooling, volcanic eruptions or insufficient ocean heat uptake -- may explain a slow observed transient warming relative to models, but not the observed enhancement of the hydrological cycle. We propose that, if precipitating convective clouds are more likely to cluster into larger clouds as temperatures rise, this process could constitute a plausible physical mechanism for an iris effect.

The impacts of climate change and human activities on biogeochemical cycles on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Chen, Huai; Zhu, Qiuan; Peng, Changhui; Wu, Ning; Wang, Yanfen; Fang, Xiuqing; Gao, Yongheng; Zhu, Dan; Yang, Gang; Tian, Jianqing; Kang, Xiaoming; Piao, Shilong; Ouyang, Hua; Xiang, Wenhua; Luo, Zhibin; Jiang, Hong; Song, Xingzhang; Zhang, Yao; Yu, Guirui; Zhao, Xinquan; Gong, Peng; Yao, Tandong; Wu, Jianghua

2013-10-01

With a pace of about twice the observed rate of global warming, the temperature on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (Earth's 'third pole') has increased by 0.2 °C per decade over the past 50 years, which results in significant permafrost thawing and glacier retreat. Our review suggested that warming enhanced net primary production and soil respiration, decreased methane (CH(4)) emissions from wetlands and increased CH(4) consumption of meadows, but might increase CH(4) emissions from lakes. Warming-induced permafrost thawing and glaciers melting would also result in substantial emission of old carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and CH(4). Nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emission was not stimulated by warming itself, but might be slightly enhanced by wetting. However, there are many uncertainties in such biogeochemical cycles under climate change. Human activities (e.g. grazing, land cover changes) further modified the biogeochemical cycles and amplified such uncertainties on the plateau. If the projected warming and wetting continues, the future biogeochemical cycles will be more complicated. So facing research in this field is an ongoing challenge of integrating field observations with process-based ecosystem models to predict the impacts of future climate change and human activities at various temporal and spatial scales. To reduce the uncertainties and to improve the precision of the predictions of the impacts of climate change and human activities on biogeochemical cycles, efforts should focus on conducting more field observation studies, integrating data within improved models, and developing new knowledge about coupling among carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus biogeochemical cycles as well as about the role of microbes in these cycles. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Study of spectro-temporal variation in paleo-climatic marine proxy records using wavelet transformations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandey, Chhavi P.

2017-10-01

Wavelet analysis is a powerful mathematical and computational tool to study periodic phenomena in time series particu-larly in the presence of potential frequency changes in time. Continuous wavelet transformation (CWT) provides localised spectral information of the analysed dataset and in particular useful to study multiscale, nonstationary processes occurring over finite spatial and temporal domains. In the present work, oxygen-isotope ratio from the plantonic foraminifera species (viz. Globigerina bul-loides and Globigerinoides ruber) acquired from the broad central plateau of the Maldives ridge situated in south-eastern Arabian sea have been used as climate proxy. CWT of the time series generated using both the biofacies indicate spectro-temporal varia-tion of the natural climatic cycles. The dominant period resembles to the period of Milankovitch glacial-interglacial cycle. Apart from that, various other cycles are present in the time series. The results are in good agreement with the astronomical theory of paleoclimates and can provide better visualisation of Indian summer monsoon in the context of climate change.

Climate change or climate cycles? Snowpack trends in the Olympic and Cascade Mountains, Washington, USA.

PubMed

Barry, Dwight; McDonald, Shea

2013-01-01

Climate change could significantly influence seasonal streamflow and water availability in the snowpack-fed watersheds of Washington, USA. Descriptions of snowpack decline often use linear ordinary least squares (OLS) models to quantify this change. However, the region's precipitation is known to be related to climate cycles. If snowpack decline is more closely related to these cycles, an OLS model cannot account for this effect, and thus both descriptions of trends and estimates of decline could be inaccurate. We used intervention analysis to determine whether snow water equivalent (SWE) in 25 long-term snow courses within the Olympic and Cascade Mountains are more accurately described by OLS (to represent gradual change), stationary (to represent no change), or step-stationary (to represent climate cycling) models. We used Bayesian information-theoretic methods to determine these models' relative likelihood, and we found 90 models that could plausibly describe the statistical structure of the 25 snow courses' time series. Posterior model probabilities of the 29 "most plausible" models ranged from 0.33 to 0.91 (mean = 0.58, s = 0.15). The majority of these time series (55%) were best represented as step-stationary models with a single breakpoint at 1976/77, coinciding with a major shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, estimates of SWE decline differed by as much as 35% between statistically plausible models of a single time series. This ambiguity is a critical problem for water management policy. Approaches such as intervention analysis should become part of the basic analytical toolkit for snowpack or other climatic time series data.

A simple object-oriented and open-source model for scientific and policy analyses of the global climate system – Hector v1.0

DOE PAGES

Hartin, Corinne A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Schwarber, Adria; ...

2015-04-01

Simple climate models play an integral role in the policy and scientific communities. They are used for climate mitigation scenarios within integrated assessment models, complex climate model emulation, and uncertainty analyses. Here we describe Hector v1.0, an open source, object-oriented, simple global climate carbon-cycle model. This model runs essentially instantaneously while still representing the most critical global-scale earth system processes. Hector has a three-part main carbon cycle: a one-pool atmosphere, land, and ocean. The model's terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary production and respiration fluxes, accommodating arbitrary geographic divisions into, e.g., ecological biomes or political units. Hector actively solves the inorganicmore » carbon system in the surface ocean, directly calculating air–sea fluxes of carbon and ocean pH. Hector reproduces the global historical trends of atmospheric [CO 2], radiative forcing, and surface temperatures. The model simulates all four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with equivalent rates of change of key variables over time compared to current observations, MAGICC (a well-known simple climate model), and models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Hector's flexibility, open-source nature, and modular design will facilitate a broad range of research in various areas.« less

Climatic precession is the main driver of Early Cretaceous sedimentation in the Vocontian Basin (France): Evidence from the Valanginian Orpierre succession

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boulila, Slah; Charbonnier, Guillaume; Galbrun, Bruno; Gardin, Silvia

2015-07-01

The Valanginian sediments outcropping in the Vocontian Basin (SE France) exhibit striking marl-limestone alternations, which were formed under the influence of orbital forcing and which have served for geochronological and paleoenvironmental studies. Previous studies have suggested an obliquity forcing during the Late Valanginian interval, reflecting specific environmental conditions such as polar ice. Using a cyclostratigraphic correlation of previously studied sections and performing time-series analysis on the most complete Late Valanginian interval we argue that the climatic precession cycle is the primary driver of these marl-limestone alternations. In addition, we highlight the modulation of the precession by the ~ 100 and 405 kyr eccentricity cycles. We suggest that the cyclostratigraphic misinterpretation (i.e., obliquity-forcing hypothesis) results mainly from poorly preserved 405 kyr eccentricity cycles, due to local hiatuses and/or "missed beats". This study shows the potential of cyclostratigraphic correlations for the detection and quantification of differential hiatuses and/or "missed beats" within intrabasinal sequences, hence providing constraints on cyclostratigraphic interpretations. The recorded 405 kyr eccentricity cycle is of prominent amplitude, and controlled the fourth-order sea-level sequences. These latter are faithfully detected through cyclostratigraphically inferred sedimentation rate. Finally, we show that the well-known, pronounced lithostratigraphic markers/intervals in the basin were orbitally paced by the 405 kyr eccentricity extrema. This is a good argument for the strong impact of this cyclicity on the sedimentary processes, especially during greenhouse periods.

The East Asian Atmospheric Water Cycle and Monsoon Circulation in the Met Office Unified Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez, José M.; Milton, Sean F.; Marzin, Charline

2017-10-01

In this study the low-level monsoon circulation and observed sources of moisture responsible for the maintenance and seasonal evolution of the East Asian monsoon are examined, studying the detailed water budget components. These observational estimates are contrasted with the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) climate simulation performance in capturing the circulation and water cycle at a variety of model horizontal resolutions and in fully coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations. We study the role of large-scale circulation in determining the hydrological cycle by analyzing key systematic errors in the model simulations. MetUM climate simulations exhibit robust circulation errors, including a weakening of the summer west Pacific Subtropical High, which leads to an underestimation of the southwesterly monsoon flow over the region. Precipitation and implied diabatic heating biases in the South Asian monsoon and Maritime Continent region are shown, via nudging sensitivity experiments, to have an impact on the East Asian monsoon circulation. By inference, the improvement of these tropical biases with increased model horizontal resolution is hypothesized to be a factor in improvements seen over East Asia with increased resolution. Results from the annual cycle of the hydrological budget components in five domains show a good agreement between MetUM simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis in northern and Tibetan domains. In simulations, the contribution from moisture convergence is larger than in reanalysis, and they display less precipitation recycling over land. The errors are closely linked to monsoon circulation biases.

Terrestrial ecosystem model performance for net primary productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in permafrost regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, J.; McGuire, A. D.; Lawrence, D. M.; Burke, E.; Chen, X.; Delire, C. L.; Koven, C. D.; MacDougall, A. H.; Peng, S.; Rinke, A.; Saito, K.; Zhang, W.; Alkama, R.; Bohn, T. J.; Ciais, P.; Decharme, B.; Gouttevin, I.; Hajima, T.; Ji, D.; Krinner, G.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Miller, P. A.; Moore, J. C.; Smith, B.; Sueyoshi, T.; Shi, Z.; Yan, L.; Liang, J.; Jiang, L.; Luo, Y.

2014-12-01

A more accurate prediction of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and improved representation of the carbon cycle in permafrost regions within current earth system models. Here, we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimated net primary productivity (NPP) and its vulnerability to climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. Those models were run retrospectively between 1960 and 2009. In comparison with MODIS satellite estimates, most models produce higher NPP (310 ± 12 g C m-2 yr-1) than MODIS (240 ± 20 g C m-2 yr-1) over the permafrost regions during 2000‒2009. The modeled NPP was then decomposed into gross primary productivity (GPP) and the NPP/GPP ratio (i.e., C use efficiency; CUE). By comparing the simulated GPP with a flux-tower-based database [Jung et al. Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011) G00J07] (JU11), we found although models only produce 10.6% higher mean GPP than JU11 over 1982‒2009, there was a two-fold disparity among models (397 to 830 g C m-2 yr-1). The model-to-model variation in GPP mainly resulted from the seasonal peak GPP and in low-latitudinal permafrost regions such as the Tibetan Plateau. Most models overestimate the CUE in permafrost regions in comparison to calculated CUE from the MODIS NPP and JU11 GPP products and observation-based estimates at 8 forest sites. The models vary in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP and CUE to historical changes in air temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration and precipitation. For example, climate warming enhanced NPP in four models via increasing GPP but reduced NPP in two other models by decreasing both GPP and CUE. The results indicate that the model predictability of C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of those processes controlling the seasonal maximum GPP and the CUE as well as their sensitivity to climate change.

Impacts of climate change on rainfall, seasonal flooding, and evapotranspiration in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konecky, B. L.; Noone, D.; Mosimanyana, E.; Gondwe, M.

2016-12-01

The Okavango Delta in northern Botswana is one of the world's richest biodiversity hotspots. A UNESCO World Heritage Site, the Delta is known for its unique annual flood pulse, whereby the wetland and its neighboring river systems are inundated with waters that travel nearly 1000 km before reaching this subtropical, semi-arid destination. The livelihoods of northern Botswana's ecosystems and human populations rely on these floods to supplement the short and variable rainy season, which in many years is too minimal to ameliorate regional drought. However, anthropogenic climate change is reducing the amount of water that reaches the delta by increasing evaporation from soils and rivers, and transpiration by vegetation, during its long transit to Botswana. Future changes in rainfall patterns, extreme events, and increased upstream water use could exacerbate this water stress. Unfortunately, it remains difficult to assess the impacts of climate change on the delta because few data exist to constrain its complex climatic and seasonal water cycling regimes. This study presents a novel characterization of the water cycle in and around the Okavango Delta based on a survey of free-flowing surface waters, stagnant pools, precipitation, and groundwater carried out during the 2016 rainy and early-flood season. We use stable isotope and water quality data to assess local moisture sources, transport, evaporation, wetland flushing, and land-atmosphere exchanges, all of which are subject to change under global warming. We find a strong evaporation gradient and a progressive flushing of stagnant swamp waters along the northeastern and northwestern channels of the Delta. The evaporation gradient is more limited in nearby rivers with more limited wetlands. We contrast results with a survey of the Delta performed in the 1970's in order to assess changes over the past 40 years. Since some of these changes may arise from rainfall supply, we also present new analysis of rainfall moisture sources and transport characteristics during 2016's unusually-late wet season, using both in situ and satellite data. Implications are discussed for the large-scale water cycling over the southern African continental interior. These data serve as a baseline for future monitoring under climate change.

Modification of land-atmosphere interactions by CO2 effects: Implications for summer dryness and heat wave amplitude

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemordant, Léo.; Gentine, Pierre; Stéfanon, Marc; Drobinski, Philippe; Fatichi, Simone

2016-10-01

Plant stomata couple the energy, water, and carbon cycles. We use the framework of Regional Climate Modeling to simulate the 2003 European heat wave and assess how higher levels of surface CO2 may affect such an extreme event through land-atmosphere interactions. Increased CO2 modifies the seasonality of the water cycle through stomatal regulation and increased leaf area. As a result, the water saved during the growing season through higher water use efficiency mitigates summer dryness and the heat wave impact. Land-atmosphere interactions and CO2 fertilization together synergistically contribute to increased summer transpiration. This, in turn, alters the surface energy budget and decreases sensible heat flux, mitigating air temperature rise. Accurate representation of the response to higher CO2 levels and of the coupling between the carbon and water cycles is therefore critical to forecasting seasonal climate, water cycle dynamics, and to enhance the accuracy of extreme event prediction under future climate.

Influence of dimethyl sulfide on the carbon cycle and biological production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Shanlin; Maltrud, Mathew; Elliott, Scott

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is a significant source of marine sulfate aerosol and plays an important role in modifying cloud properties. Fully coupled climate simulations using dynamic marine ecosystem and DMS calculations are conducted to estimate DMS fluxes under various climate scenarios and to examine the sign and strength of phytoplankton-DMS-climate feedbacks for the first time. Simulation results show small differences in the DMS production and emissions between pre-industrial and present climate scenarios, except for some areas in the Southern Ocean. There are clear changes in surface ocean DMS concentrations moving into the future, and they are attributable to changes inmore » phytoplankton production and competition driven by complex spatially varying mechanisms. Comparisons between parallel simulations with and without DMS fluxes into the atmosphere show significant differences in marine ecosystems and physical fields. Without DMS, the missing subsequent aerosol indirect effects on clouds and radiative forcing lead to fewer clouds, more solar radiation, and a much warmer climate. Phaeocystis, a uniquely efficient organosulfur producer with a growth advantage under cooler climate states, can benefit from producing the compound through cooling effects of DMS in the climate system. Our results show a tight coupling between the sulfur and carbon cycles. The ocean carbon uptake declines without DMS emissions to the atmosphere. The analysis indicates a weak positive phytoplankton-DMS-climate feedback at the global scale, with large spatial variations driven by individual autotrophic functional groups and complex mechanisms. The sign and strength of the feedback vary with climate states and phytoplankton groups. This highlights the importance of a dynamic marine ecosystem module and the sulfur cycle mechanism in climate projections.« less

Influence of dimethyl sulfide on the carbon cycle and biological production

DOE PAGES

Wang, Shanlin; Maltrud, Mathew; Elliott, Scott; ...

2018-02-27

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is a significant source of marine sulfate aerosol and plays an important role in modifying cloud properties. Fully coupled climate simulations using dynamic marine ecosystem and DMS calculations are conducted to estimate DMS fluxes under various climate scenarios and to examine the sign and strength of phytoplankton-DMS-climate feedbacks for the first time. Simulation results show small differences in the DMS production and emissions between pre-industrial and present climate scenarios, except for some areas in the Southern Ocean. There are clear changes in surface ocean DMS concentrations moving into the future, and they are attributable to changes inmore » phytoplankton production and competition driven by complex spatially varying mechanisms. Comparisons between parallel simulations with and without DMS fluxes into the atmosphere show significant differences in marine ecosystems and physical fields. Without DMS, the missing subsequent aerosol indirect effects on clouds and radiative forcing lead to fewer clouds, more solar radiation, and a much warmer climate. Phaeocystis, a uniquely efficient organosulfur producer with a growth advantage under cooler climate states, can benefit from producing the compound through cooling effects of DMS in the climate system. Our results show a tight coupling between the sulfur and carbon cycles. The ocean carbon uptake declines without DMS emissions to the atmosphere. The analysis indicates a weak positive phytoplankton-DMS-climate feedback at the global scale, with large spatial variations driven by individual autotrophic functional groups and complex mechanisms. The sign and strength of the feedback vary with climate states and phytoplankton groups. This highlights the importance of a dynamic marine ecosystem module and the sulfur cycle mechanism in climate projections.« less

Analyzing the impact of climate and management factors on the productivity and soil carbon sequestration of poplar plantations.

PubMed

Wang, Dan; Fan, Jiazhi; Jing, Panpan; Cheng, Yong; Ruan, Honghua

2016-01-01

It is crucial to investigate how climate and management factors impact poplar plantation production and soil carbon sequestration interactively. We extracted above-ground net primary production (ANPP), climate and management factors from peer-reviewed journal articles and analyzed impact of management factor and climate on the mean annual increment (MAI) of poplar ANPP statistically. Previously validated mechanistic model (ED) is used to perform case simulations for managed poplar plantations under different harvesting rotations. The meta-analysis indicate that the dry matter MAI was 6.3 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) (n=641, sd=4.9) globally, and 5.1 (n=292, sd=4.0), 8.1 (n=224, sd=4.7) and 4.4 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) (n=125, sd=3.2) in Europe, the US and China, respectively. Poplar MAI showed a significant response to GDD, precipitation and planting density and formed a quadratic relationship with stand age. The low annual production for poplar globally was probably caused by suboptimal water availability, rotation length and planting density. SEM attributes the variance of poplar growth rate more to climate than to management effects. Case simulations indicated that longer rotation cycle significantly increased soil carbon storage. Findings of this work suggests that management factor of rotation cycle alone could have dramatic impact on the above ground growth, as well as on the soil carbon sequestration of poplar plantations and will be helpful to quantify the long-term carbon sequestration through short rotation plantation. The findings of this study are useful in guiding further research, policy and management decisions towards sustainable poplar plantations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation and projected changes of precipitation statistics in convection-permitting WRF climate simulations over Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knist, Sebastian; Goergen, Klaus; Simmer, Clemens

2018-02-01

We perform simulations with the WRF regional climate model at 12 and 3 km grid resolution for the current and future climates over Central Europe and evaluate their added value with a focus on the daily cycle and frequency distribution of rainfall and the relation between extreme precipitation and air temperature. First, a 9 year period of ERA-Interim driven simulations is evaluated against observations; then global climate model runs (MPI-ESM-LR RCP4.5 scenario) are downscaled and analyzed for three 12-year periods: a control, a mid-of-century and an end-of-century projection. The higher resolution simulations reproduce both the diurnal cycle and the hourly intensity distribution of precipitation more realistically compared to the 12 km simulation. Moreover, the observed increase of the temperature-extreme precipitation scaling from the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) scaling rate of 7% K-1 to a super-adiabatic scaling rate for temperatures above 11 °C is reproduced only by the 3 km simulation. The drop of the scaling rates at high temperatures under moisture limited conditions differs between sub-regions. For both future scenario time spans both simulations suggest a slight decrease in mean summer precipitation and an increase in hourly heavy and extreme precipitation. This increase is stronger in the 3 km runs. Temperature-extreme precipitation scaling curves in the future climate are projected to shift along the 7% K-1 trajectory to higher peak extreme precipitation values at higher temperatures. The curves keep their typical shape of C-C scaling followed by super-adiabatic scaling and a drop-off at higher temperatures due to moisture limitation.

Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian; Hertwich, Edgar G.

2016-01-01

The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO2-eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO2-eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120-140 Tg CO2-eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power.

Seasonal and interannual variations of atmospheric CO2 and climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Ghil, M.

1998-01-01

Interannual variations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa are almost masked by the seasonal cycle and a strong trend; at the South Pole, the seasonal cycle is small and is almost lost in the trend and interannual variations. Singular-spectrum analysis (SSA) issued here to isolate and reconstruct interannual signals at both sites and to visualize recent decadal changes in the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle. Analysis of the Mauna Loa CO2 series illustrates a hastening of the CO2 seasonal cycle, a close temporal relation between Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean temperature trends and the amplitude of the seasonal CO2 cycle, and tentative ties between the latter and seasonality changes in temperature over the NH continents. Variations of the seasonal CO2 cycle at the South Pole differ from those at Mauna Loa: it is phase changes of the seasonal cycle at the South Pole, rather than amplitude changes, that parallel hemispheric and global temperature trends. The seasonal CO2 cycles exhibit earlier occurrences of the seasons by 7 days at Mauna Loa and 18 days at the South Pole. Interannual CO2 variations are shared at the two locations, appear to respond to tropical processes, and can be decomposed mostly into two periodicities, around (3 years)-1 and (4 years)-1, respectively. Joint SSA analyses of CO2 concentrations and tropical climate indices isolate a shared mode with a quasi-triennial (QT) period in which the CO2 and sea-surface temperature (SST) participation are in phase opposition. The other shared mode has a quasi-quadrennial (QQ) period and CO2 variations are in phase with the corresponding tropical SST variations throughout the tropics. Together these interannual modes exhibit a mean lag between tropical SSTs and CO2 variations of about 6-8 months, with SST leading. Analysis of the QT and QQ signals in global gridded SSTs, joint SSA of CO2 and ??13C isotopic ratios, and SSA of CO2 and NH-land temperatures indicate that the QT variations in CO2 mostly reflect upwelling variations in the eastern tropical Pacific. QQ variations are dominated by the CO2 signature of terrestrial-ecosystem response to global QQ climate variations. Climate variations associated with these two interannual components of tropical variability have very different effects on global climate and, especially, on terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle.

The predicted CLARREO sampling error of the inter-annual SW variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doelling, D. R.; Keyes, D. F.; Nguyen, C.; Macdonnell, D.; Young, D. F.

2009-12-01

The NRC Decadal Survey has called for SI traceability of long-term hyper-spectral flux measurements in order to monitor climate variability. This mission is called the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) and is currently defining its mission requirements. The requirements are focused on the ability to measure decadal change of key climate variables at very high accuracy. The accuracy goals are set using anticipated climate change magnitudes, but the accuracy achieved for any given climate variable must take into account the temporal and spatial sampling errors based on satellite orbits and calibration accuracy. The time period to detect a significant trend in the CLARREO record depends on the magnitude of the sampling calibration errors relative to the current inter-annual variability. The largest uncertainty in climate feedbacks remains the effect of changing clouds on planetary energy balance. Some regions on earth have strong diurnal cycles, such as maritime stratus and afternoon land convection; other regions have strong seasonal cycles, such as the monsoon. However, when monitoring inter-annual variability these cycles are only important if the strength of these cycles vary on decadal time scales. This study will attempt to determine the best satellite constellations to reduce sampling error and to compare the error with the current inter-annual variability signal to ensure the viability of the mission. The study will incorporate Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) (Monthly TOA/Surface Averages) SRBAVG product TOA LW and SW climate quality fluxes. The fluxes are derived by combining Terra (10:30 local equator crossing time) CERES fluxes with 3-hourly 5-geostationary satellite estimated broadband fluxes, which are normalized using the CERES fluxes, to complete the diurnal cycle. These fluxes were saved hourly during processing and considered the truth dataset. 90°, 83° and 74° inclination precessionary orbits as well as sun-synchronous orbits will be evaluated. This study will focus on the SW radiance, since these low earth orbits are only in daylight for half the orbit. The precessionary orbits were designed to cycle through all solar zenith angles over the course of a year. The inter-annual variability sampling error will be stratified globally/zonally and annually/seasonally and compared with the corresponding truth anomalies.

The carbon cycle in the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS-ESM1) - Part 1: Model description and pre-industrial simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Law, Rachel M.; Ziehn, Tilo; Matear, Richard J.; Lenton, Andrew; Chamberlain, Matthew A.; Stevens, Lauren E.; Wang, Ying-Ping; Srbinovsky, Jhan; Bi, Daohua; Yan, Hailin; Vohralik, Peter F.

2017-07-01

Earth system models (ESMs) that incorporate carbon-climate feedbacks represent the present state of the art in climate modelling. Here, we describe the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS)-ESM1, which comprises atmosphere (UM7.3), land (CABLE), ocean (MOM4p1), and sea-ice (CICE4.1) components with OASIS-MCT coupling, to which ocean and land carbon modules have been added. The land carbon model (as part of CABLE) can optionally include both nitrogen and phosphorous limitation on the land carbon uptake. The ocean carbon model (WOMBAT, added to MOM) simulates the evolution of phosphate, oxygen, dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity and iron with one class of phytoplankton and zooplankton. We perform multi-centennial pre-industrial simulations with a fixed atmospheric CO2 concentration and different land carbon model configurations (prescribed or prognostic leaf area index). We evaluate the equilibration of the carbon cycle and present the spatial and temporal variability in key carbon exchanges. Simulating leaf area index results in a slight warming of the atmosphere relative to the prescribed leaf area index case. Seasonal and interannual variations in land carbon exchange are sensitive to whether leaf area index is simulated, with interannual variations driven by variability in precipitation and temperature. We find that the response of the ocean carbon cycle shows reasonable agreement with observations. While our model overestimates surface phosphate values, the global primary productivity agrees well with observations. Our analysis highlights some deficiencies inherent in the carbon models and where the carbon simulation is negatively impacted by known biases in the underlying physical model and consequent limits on the applicability of this model version. We conclude the study with a brief discussion of key developments required to further improve the realism of our model simulation.

Daily pan evaporation modelling using a neuro-fuzzy computing technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kişi, Özgür

2006-10-01

SummaryEvaporation, as a major component of the hydrologic cycle, is important in water resources development and management. This paper investigates the abilities of neuro-fuzzy (NF) technique to improve the accuracy of daily evaporation estimation. Five different NF models comprising various combinations of daily climatic variables, that is, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, pressure and humidity are developed to evaluate degree of effect of each of these variables on evaporation. A comparison is made between the estimates provided by the NF model and the artificial neural networks (ANNs). The Stephens-Stewart (SS) method is also considered for the comparison. Various statistic measures are used to evaluate the performance of the models. Based on the comparisons, it was found that the NF computing technique could be employed successfully in modelling evaporation process from the available climatic data. The ANN also found to perform better than the SS method.

Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change

Treesearch

A.D. McGuire; L.G. Anderson; T.R. Christensen; S. Dallimore; L. Guo; D.J. Hayes; M. Heimann; T.D. Lorenson; R.W. Macdonald; N. Roulet

2009-01-01

The recent warming in the Arctic is affecting a broad spectrum of physical, ecological, and human/cultural systems that may be irreversible on century time scales and have the potential to cause rapid changes in the earth system. The response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to changes in climate is a major issue of global concern, yet there has not been a...

Mars Water Ice and Carbon Dioxide Seasonal Polar Caps: GCM Modeling and Comparison with Mars Express Omega Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forget, F.; Levrard, B.; Montmessin, F.; Schmitt, B.; Doute, S.; Langevin, Y.; Bibring, J. P.

2005-01-01

To better understand the behavior of the Mars CO2 ice seasonal polar caps, and in particular interpret the the Mars Express Omega observations of the recession of the northern seasonal cap, we present some simulations of the Martian Climate/CO2 cycle/ water cycle as modeled by the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD) global climate model.

Regional carbon cycle responses to 25 years of variation in climate and disturbance in the US Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

David P. Turner; William D. Ritts; Robert E. Kennedy; Andrew N. Gray; Zhiqiang Yang

2016-01-01

Variation in climate, disturbance regime, and forest management strongly influence terrestrial carbon sources and sinks. Spatially distributed, process-based, carbon cycle simulation models provide a means to integrate information on these various influences to estimate carbon pools and flux over large domains. Here we apply the Biome-BGC model over the four-state...

PRMS-IV, the precipitation-runoff modeling system, version 4

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markstrom, Steven L.; Regan, R. Steve; Hay, Lauren E.; Viger, Roland J.; Webb, Richard M.; Payn, Robert A.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.

2015-01-01

Computer models that simulate the hydrologic cycle at a watershed scale facilitate assessment of variability in climate, biota, geology, and human activities on water availability and flow. This report describes an updated version of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of various combinations of climate and land use on streamflow and general watershed hydrology. Several new model components were developed, and all existing components were updated, to enhance performance and supportability. This report describes the history, application, concepts, organization, and mathematical formulation of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System and its model components. This updated version provides improvements in (1) system flexibility for integrated science, (2) verification of conservation of water during simulation, (3) methods for spatial distribution of climate boundary conditions, and (4) methods for simulation of soil-water flow and storage.

Simulation of Drought-induced Tree Mortality Using a New Individual and Hydraulic Trait-based Model (S-TEDy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinha, T.; Gangodagamage, C.; Ale, S.; Frazier, A. G.; Giambelluca, T. W.; Kumagai, T.; Nakai, T.; Sato, H.

2017-12-01

Drought-related tree mortality at a regional scale causes drastic shifts in carbon and water cycling in Southeast Asian tropical rainforests, where severe droughts are projected to occur more frequently, especially under El Niño conditions. To provide a useful tool for projecting the tropical rainforest dynamics under climate change conditions, we developed the Spatially Explicit Individual-Based (SEIB) Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) applicable to simulating mechanistic tree mortality induced by the climatic impacts via individual-tree-scale ecophysiology such as hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. In this study, we present the new model, SEIB-originated Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics (S-TEDy) model, and the computation results were compared with observations collected at a field site in a Bornean tropical rainforest. Furthermore, after validating the model's performance, numerical experiments addressing a future of the tropical rainforest were conducted using some global climate model (GCM) simulation outputs.

A Multiscale Simulation Framework to Investigate Hydrobiogeochemical Processes in the Groundwater-Surface Water Interaction Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheibe, T. D.; Yang, X.; Song, X.; Chen, X.; Hammond, G. E.; Song, H. S.; Hou, Z.; Murray, C. J.; Tartakovsky, A. M.; Tartakovsky, G.; Yang, X.; Zachara, J. M.

2016-12-01

Drought-related tree mortality at a regional scale causes drastic shifts in carbon and water cycling in Southeast Asian tropical rainforests, where severe droughts are projected to occur more frequently, especially under El Niño conditions. To provide a useful tool for projecting the tropical rainforest dynamics under climate change conditions, we developed the Spatially Explicit Individual-Based (SEIB) Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) applicable to simulating mechanistic tree mortality induced by the climatic impacts via individual-tree-scale ecophysiology such as hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. In this study, we present the new model, SEIB-originated Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics (S-TEDy) model, and the computation results were compared with observations collected at a field site in a Bornean tropical rainforest. Furthermore, after validating the model's performance, numerical experiments addressing a future of the tropical rainforest were conducted using some global climate model (GCM) simulation outputs.

Significance of direct and indirect impacts of climate change on groundwater resources in the Olifants River basin: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nkhonjera, German K.; Dinka, Megersa O.

2017-11-01

This paper considers the extent and usefulness of reviewing existing literature on the significance of direct and indirect impacts of climate change on groundwater resources with emphasis on examples from the Olifants River basin. Here, the existing literature were extensively reviewed, with discussions centred mainly on the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources and challenges in modelling climate change impacts on groundwater resources. Since in the hydrological cycle, the hydrological components such as evaporation, temperature, precipitation, and groundwater, are the major drivers of the present and future climate, a detailed discussion is done on the impact of climate change on these hydrological components to determine to what extent the hydrological cycle has already been affected as a result of climate change. The uncertainties, constraints and limitations in climate change research have also been reviewed. In addition to the research gaps discussed here, the emphasis on the need of extensive climate change research on the continent, especially as climate change impacts on groundwater, is discussed. Overall, the importance of conducting further research in climate change, understanding the significance of the impact of climate change on water resources such as groundwater, and taking actions to effectively meet the adaptation needs of the people, emerge as an important theme in this review.

Host and parasite thermal ecology jointly determine the effect of climate warming on epidemic dynamics.

PubMed

Gehman, Alyssa-Lois M; Hall, Richard J; Byers, James E

2018-01-23

Host-parasite systems have intricately coupled life cycles, but each interactor can respond differently to changes in environmental variables like temperature. Although vital to predicting how parasitism will respond to climate change, thermal responses of both host and parasite in key traits affecting infection dynamics have rarely been quantified. Through temperature-controlled experiments on an ectothermic host-parasite system, we demonstrate an offset in the thermal optima for survival of infected and uninfected hosts and parasite production. We combine experimentally derived thermal performance curves with field data on seasonal host abundance and parasite prevalence to parameterize an epidemiological model and forecast the dynamical responses to plausible future climate-warming scenarios. In warming scenarios within the coastal southeastern United States, the model predicts sharp declines in parasite prevalence, with local parasite extinction occurring with as little as 2 °C warming. The northern portion of the parasite's current range could experience local increases in transmission, but assuming no thermal adaptation of the parasite, we find no evidence that the parasite will expand its range northward under warming. This work exemplifies that some host populations may experience reduced parasitism in a warming world and highlights the need to measure host and parasite thermal performance to predict infection responses to climate change.

Performance of the Falling Snow Retrieval Algorithms for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Skofronick-Jackson, Gail; Munchak, Stephen J.; Ringerud, Sarah

2016-01-01

Retrievals of falling snow from space represent an important data set for understanding the Earth's atmospheric, hydrological, and energy cycles, especially during climate change. Estimates of falling snow must be captured to obtain the true global precipitation water cycle, snowfall accumulations are required for hydrological studies, and without knowledge of the frozen particles in clouds one cannot adequately understand the energy and radiation budgets. While satellite-based remote sensing provides global coverage of falling snow events, the science is relatively new and retrievals are still undergoing development with challenges remaining). This work reports on the development and testing of retrieval algorithms for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission Core Satellite, launched February 2014.

Size and shape stasis in late Pleistocene mammals and birds from Rancho La Brea during the Last Glacial-Interglacial cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prothero, Donald R.; Syverson, Valerie J.; Raymond, Kristina R.; Madan, Meena; Molina, Sarah; Fragomeni, Ashley; DeSantis, Sylvana; Sutyagina, Anastasiya; Gage, Gina L.

2012-11-01

Conventional neo-Darwinian theory views organisms as infinitely sensitive and responsive to their environments, and considers them able to readily change size or shape when they adapt to selective pressures. Yet since 1863 it has been well known that Pleistocene animals and plants do not show much morphological change or speciation in response to the glacial-interglacial climate cycles. We tested this hypothesis with all of the common birds (condors, golden and bald eagles, turkeys, caracaras) and mammals (dire wolves, saber-toothed cats, giant lions, horses, camels, bison, and ground sloths) from Rancho La Brea tar pits in Los Angeles, California, which preserves large samples of many bones from many well-dated pits spanning the 35,000 years of the Last Glacial-Interglacial cycle. Pollen evidence showed the climate changed from chaparral/oaks 35,000 years ago to snowy piñon-juniper forests at the peak glacial 20,000 years ago, then back to the modern chaparral since the glacial-interglacial transition. Based on Bergmann's rule, we would expect peak glacial specimens to have larger body sizes, and based on Allen's rule, peak glacial samples should have shorter and more robust limbs. Yet statistical analysis (ANOVA for parametric samples; Kruskal-Wallis test for non-parametric samples) showed that none of the Pleistocene pit samples is statistically distinct from the rest, indicating complete stasis from 35 ka to 9 ka. The sole exception was the Pit 13 sample of dire wolves (16 ka), which was significantly smaller than the rest, but this did not occur in response to climate change. We also performed a time series analysis of the pit samples. None showed directional change; all were either static or showed a random walk. Thus, the data show that birds and mammals at Rancho La Brea show complete stasis and were unresponsive to the major climate change that occurred at 20 ka, consistent with other studies of Pleistocene animals and plants. Most explanations for such stasis (stabilizing selection, canalization) fail in this setting where climate is changing. One possible explanation is that most large birds and mammals are very broadly adapted and relatively insensitive to changes in their environments, although even the small mammals of the Pleistocene show stasis during climate change, too.

Precipitation Recycling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.; Bras, Rafael L.

1996-01-01

The water cycle regulates and reflects natural variability in climate at the regional and global scales. Large-scale human activities that involve changes in land cover, such as tropical deforestation, are likely to modify climate through changes in the water cycle. In order to understand, and hopefully be able to predict, the extent of these potential global and regional changes, we need first to understand how the water cycle works. In the past, most of the research in hydrology focused on the land branch of the water cycle, with little attention given to the atmospheric branch. The study of precipitation recycling which is defined as the contribution of local evaporation to local precipitation, aims at understanding hydrologic processes in the atmospheric branch of the water cycle. Simply stated, any study on precipitation recycling is about how the atmospheric branch of the water cycle works, namely, what happens to water vapor molecules after they evaporate from the surface, and where will they precipitate?

Forest defoliator outbreaks under climate change: effects on the frequency and severity of outbreaks of five pine insect pests.

PubMed

Haynes, Kyle J; Allstadt, Andrew J; Klimetzek, Dietrich

2014-06-01

To identify general patterns in the effects of climate change on the outbreak dynamics of forest-defoliating insect species, we examined a 212-year record (1800-2011) of outbreaks of five pine-defoliating species (Bupalus piniarius, Panolis flammea, Lymantria monacha, Dendrolimus pini, and Diprion pini) in Bavaria, Germany for the evidence of climate-driven changes in the severity, cyclicity, and frequency of outbreaks. We also accounted for historical changes in forestry practices and examined effects of past insecticide use to suppress outbreaks. Analysis of relationships between severity or occurrence of outbreaks and detrended measures of temperature and precipitation revealed a mixture of positive and negative relationships between temperature and outbreak activity. Two moth species (P. flammea and Dendrolimus pini) exhibited lower outbreak activity following years or decades of unusually warm temperatures, whereas a sawfly (Diprion pini), for which voltinism is influenced by temperature, displayed increased outbreak occurrence in years of high summer temperatures. We detected only one apparent effect of precipitation, which showed Dendrolimus pini outbreaks tending to follow drought. Wavelet analysis of outbreak time series suggested climate change may be associated with collapse of L. monacha and Dendrolimus pini outbreak cycles (loss of cyclicity and discontinuation of outbreaks, respectively), but high-frequency cycles for B. piniarius and P. flammea in the late 1900s. Regional outbreak severity was generally not related to past suppression efforts (area treated with insecticides). Recent shifts in forestry practices affecting tree species composition roughly coincided with high-frequency outbreak cycles in B. piniarius and P. flammea but are unlikely to explain the detected relationships between climate and outbreak severity or collapses of outbreak cycles. Our results highlight both individualistic responses of different pine-defoliating species to climate changes and some patterns that are consistent across defoliator species in this and other forest systems, including collapsing of population cycles. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using the adaptive cycle in climate-risk insurance to design resilient futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremades, R.; Surminski, S.; Máñez Costa, M.; Hudson, P.; Shrivastava, P.; Gascoigne, J.

2018-01-01

Assessing the dynamics of resilience could help insurers and governments reduce the costs of climate-risk insurance schemes and secure future insurability in the face of an increase in extreme hydro-meteorological events related to climate change.

EPA Region 10 Climate Change and TMDL Pilot - Project Research Plan

EPA Science Inventory

Global climate change affects the fundamental drivers of the hydrological cycle. Evidence is growing that climate change will have significant ramifications for the nation’s freshwater ecosystems, as deviations in atmospheric temperature and precipitation patterns are more ...

Conditions for oceans on Earth-like planets orbiting within the habitable zone: importance of volcanic CO{sub 2} degassing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kadoya, S.; Tajika, E., E-mail: kadoya@astrobio.k.u-tokyo.ac.jp, E-mail: tajika@astrobio.k.u-tokyo.ac.jp

2014-08-01

Earth-like planets in the habitable zone (HZ) have been considered to have warm climates and liquid water on their surfaces if the carbonate-silicate geochemical cycle is working as on Earth. However, it is known that even the present Earth may be globally ice-covered when the rate of CO{sub 2} degassing via volcanism becomes low. Here we discuss the climates of Earth-like planets in which the carbonate-silicate geochemical cycle is working, with focusing particularly on insolation and the CO{sub 2} degassing rate. The climate of Earth-like planets within the HZ can be classified into three climate modes (hot, warm, and snowballmore » climate modes). We found that the conditions for the existence of liquid water should be largely restricted even when the planet is orbiting within the HZ and the carbonate-silicate geochemical cycle is working. We show that these conditions should depend strongly on the rate of CO{sub 2} degassing via volcanism. It is, therefore, suggested that thermal evolution of the planetary interiors will be a controlling factor for Earth-like planets to have liquid water on their surface.« less

Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change

PubMed Central

O’Gorman, Paul A.

2010-01-01

Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate change, and that the seasonal cycle of storm-track intensity increases in amplitude in both hemispheres. I use observations of the present-day seasonal cycle to confirm the relationship between storm-track intensity and the mean available potential energy of the atmosphere, and show how this quantitative relationship can be used to account for much of the varied response in storm-track intensity to global warming, including substantially different responses in simulations with different climate models. The results suggest that storm-track intensity is not related in a simple way to global-mean surface temperature, so that, for example, a stronger southern storm track in response to present-day global warming does not imply it was also stronger in hothouse climates of the past. PMID:20974916

Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change.

PubMed

O'Gorman, Paul A

2010-11-09

Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate change, and that the seasonal cycle of storm-track intensity increases in amplitude in both hemispheres. I use observations of the present-day seasonal cycle to confirm the relationship between storm-track intensity and the mean available potential energy of the atmosphere, and show how this quantitative relationship can be used to account for much of the varied response in storm-track intensity to global warming, including substantially different responses in simulations with different climate models. The results suggest that storm-track intensity is not related in a simple way to global-mean surface temperature, so that, for example, a stronger southern storm track in response to present-day global warming does not imply it was also stronger in hothouse climates of the past.

Predictors of Drought Recovery across Forest Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderegg, W.

2016-12-01

The impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems are poorly understood but central for predicting carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change. Coupled climate-carbon cycle models typically assume that vegetation recovery from extreme drought is immediate and complete, which conflicts with basic plant physiological understanding. Here, we discuss what we have learned about forest ecosystem recovery from extreme drought across spatial and temporal scales, drawing on inference from tree rings, eddy covariance data, large scale gross primary productivity products, and ecosystem models. In tree rings, we find pervasive and substantial "legacy effects" of reduced growth and incomplete recovery for 1-4 years after severe drought, and that legacy effects are most prevalent in dry ecosystems, Pinaceae, and species with low hydraulic safety margins. At larger scales, we see relatively rapid recovery of ecosystem fluxes, with strong influences of ecosystem productivity and diversity and longer recovery periods in high latidue forests. In contrast, no or limited legacy effects are simulated in current climate-vegetation models after drought, and we highlight some of the key missing mechanisms in dynamic vegetation models. Our results reveal hysteresis in forest ecosystem carbon cycling and delayed recovery from climate extremes and help advance a predictive understanding of ecosystem recovery.

Snowfall less sensitive to warming in Karakoram than in Himalayas due to a unique seasonal cycle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kapnick, Sarah B.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C.D.

2014-01-01

The high mountains of Asia, including the Karakoram, Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, combine to form a region of perplexing hydroclimate changes. Glaciers have exhibited mass stability or even expansion in the Karakoram region1, 2, 3, contrasting with glacial mass loss across the nearby Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau1, 4, a pattern that has been termed the Karakoram anomaly. However, the remote location, complex terrain and multi-country fabric of high-mountain Asia have made it difficult to maintain longer-term monitoring systems of the meteorological components that may have influenced glacial change. Here we compare a set of high-resolution climate model simulations from 1861 to 2100 with the latest available observations to focus on the distinct seasonal cycles and resulting climate change signatures of Asia’s high-mountain ranges. We find that the Karakoram seasonal cycle is dominated by non-monsoonal winter precipitation, which uniquely protects it from reductions in annual snowfall under climate warming over the twenty-first century. The simulations show that climate change signals are detectable only with long and continuous records, and at specific elevations. Our findings suggest a meteorological mechanism for regional differences in the glacier response to climate warming.

Livelihood Cycle and Vulnerability of Rural Households to Climate Change and Hazards in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Alam, G M Monirul

2017-05-01

Rural riverine households in Bangladesh are confronted with many climate-driven hazards, including riverbank erosion, which results in loss of productive land and other natural resources of the riverine households, and thus threatens their livelihoods and food security. This study assesses the main drivers of vulnerability and livelihood cycle of vulnerable riparian households in Bangladesh. The study utilises the IPCC framework of vulnerability and develops a weighted approach by employing the livelihood vulnerability index and the climate vulnerability index. The results reveal that the livelihood vulnerability index and the climate vulnerability index differ across locations, however, a high index value for both measures indicates the households' high livelihood vulnerability to climate change and hazards. The main drivers that influence the vulnerability dimensions are livelihood strategies and access to food, water and health facilities. These hazard-prone households are also vulnerable due to their existing low livelihood status that leads to a vicious cycle of poverty. The findings of this study are crucial for policymakers to formulate and implement effective strategies and programs to minimise vulnerability and to enhance the local adaptation processes in order to improve such households' livelihood across Bangladesh.

Livelihood Cycle and Vulnerability of Rural Households to Climate Change and Hazards in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alam, G. M. Monirul

2017-05-01

Rural riverine households in Bangladesh are confronted with many climate-driven hazards, including riverbank erosion, which results in loss of productive land and other natural resources of the riverine households, and thus threatens their livelihoods and food security. This study assesses the main drivers of vulnerability and livelihood cycle of vulnerable riparian households in Bangladesh. The study utilises the IPCC framework of vulnerability and develops a weighted approach by employing the livelihood vulnerability index and the climate vulnerability index. The results reveal that the livelihood vulnerability index and the climate vulnerability index differ across locations, however, a high index value for both measures indicates the households' high livelihood vulnerability to climate change and hazards. The main drivers that influence the vulnerability dimensions are livelihood strategies and access to food, water and health facilities. These hazard-prone households are also vulnerable due to their existing low livelihood status that leads to a vicious cycle of poverty. The findings of this study are crucial for policymakers to formulate and implement effective strategies and programs to minimise vulnerability and to enhance the local adaptation processes in order to improve such households' livelihood across Bangladesh.

Modelling the Phanerozoic carbon cycle and climate: constraints from the 87Sr/86Sr isotopic ratio of seawater

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Francois, L. M.; Walker, J. C.

1992-01-01

A numerical model describing the coupled evolution of the biogeochemical cycles of carbon, sulfur, calcium, magnesium, phosphorus, and strontium has been developed to describe the long-term changes of atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate during the Phanerozoic. The emphasis is on the effects of coupling the cycles of carbon and strontium. Various interpretations of the observed Phanerozoic history of the seawater 87Sr/86Sr ratio are investigated with the model. More specifically, the abilities of continental weathering, volcanism, and surface lithology in generating that signal are tested and compared. It is suggested that the observed fluctuations are mostly due to a changing weatherability over time. It is shown that such a conclusion is very important for the modelling of the carbon cycle. Indeed, it implies that the conventional belief that the evolution of atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate on a long time scale is governed by the balance between the volcanic input of CO2 and the rate of silicate weathering is not true. Rather carbon exchanges between the mantle and the exogenic system are likely to have played a key role too. Further, the increase of the global weathering rates with increasing surface temperature and/or atmospheric CO2 pressure usually postulated in long-term carbon cycle and climate modelling is also inconsistent with the new model. Other factors appear to have modulated the weatherability of the continents through time, such as mountain building and the existence of glaciers and ice sheets. Based on these observations, a history of atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate during Phanerozoic time, consistent with the strontium isotopic data, is reconstructed with the model and is shown to be compatible with paleoclimatic indicators, such as the timing of glaciation and the estimates of Cretaceous paleotemperatures.

Key ecological responses to nitrogen are altered by climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Greaver, T.L.; Clark, C.M.; Compton, J.E.; Vallano, D.; Talhelm, A. F.; Weaver, C.P.; Band, L.E.; Baron, Jill S.; Davidson, E.A.; Tague, C.L.; Felker-Quinn, E.; Lynch, J.A.; Herrick, J.D.; Liu, L.; Goodale, C.L.; Novak, K. J.; Haeuber, R. A.

2016-01-01

Climate change and anthropogenic nitrogen deposition are both important ecological threats. Evaluating their cumulative effects provides a more holistic view of ecosystem vulnerability to human activities, which would better inform policy decisions aimed to protect the sustainability of ecosystems. Our knowledge of the cumulative effects of these stressors is growing, but we lack an integrated understanding. In this Review, we describe how climate change alters key processes in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems related to nitrogen cycling and availability, and the response of ecosystems to nitrogen addition in terms of carbon cycling, acidification and biodiversity.

Key ecological responses to nitrogen are altered by climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greaver, T. L.; Clark, C. M.; Compton, J. E.; Vallano, D.; Talhelm, A. F.; Weaver, C. P.; Band, L. E.; Baron, J. S.; Davidson, E. A.; Tague, C. L.; Felker-Quinn, E.; Lynch, J. A.; Herrick, J. D.; Liu, L.; Goodale, C. L.; Novak, K. J.; Haeuber, R. A.

2016-09-01

Climate change and anthropogenic nitrogen deposition are both important ecological threats. Evaluating their cumulative effects provides a more holistic view of ecosystem vulnerability to human activities, which would better inform policy decisions aimed to protect the sustainability of ecosystems. Our knowledge of the cumulative effects of these stressors is growing, but we lack an integrated understanding. In this Review, we describe how climate change alters key processes in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems related to nitrogen cycling and availability, and the response of ecosystems to nitrogen addition in terms of carbon cycling, acidification and biodiversity.

Effect of Freeze-Thaw Cycles on Soil Nitrogen Reactive Transport in a Polygonal Arctic Tundra Ecosystem at Barrow AK Using 3-D Coupled ALM-PFLOTRAN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, F.; Wang, G.; Painter, S. L.; Tang, G.; Xu, X.; Kumar, J.; Bisht, G.; Hammond, G. E.; Mills, R. T.; Thornton, P. E.; Wullschleger, S. D.

2017-12-01

In Arctic tundra ecosystem soil freezing-thawing is one of dominant physical processes through which biogeochemical (e.g., carbon and nitrogen) cycles are tightly coupled. Besides hydraulic transport, freezing-thawing can cause pore water movement and aqueous species gradients, which are additional mechanisms for soil nitrogen (N) reactive-transport in Tundra ecosystem. In this study, we have fully coupled an in-development ESM(i.e., Advanced Climate Model for Energy, ACME)'s Land Model (ALM) aboveground processes with a state-of-the-art massively parallel 3-D subsurface thermal-hydrology and reactive transport code, PFLOTRAN. The resulting coupled ALM-PFLOTRAN model is a Land Surface Model (LSM) capable of resolving 3-D soil thermal-hydrological-biogeochemical cycles. This specific version of PFLOTRAN has incorporated CLM-CN Converging Trophic Cascade (CTC) model and a full and simple but robust soil N cycle. It includes absorption-desorption for soil NH4+ and gas dissolving-degasing process as well. It also implements thermal-hydrology mode codes with three newly-modified freezing-thawing algorithms which can greatly improve computing performance in regarding to numerical stiffness at freezing-point. Here we tested the model in fully 3-D coupled mode at the Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment-Arctic (NGEE-Arctic) field intensive study site at the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), AK. The simulations show that: (1) synchronous coupling of soil thermal-hydrology and biogeochemistry in 3-D can greatly impact ecosystem dynamics across polygonal tundra landscape; and (2) freezing-thawing cycles can add more complexity to the system, resulting in greater mobility of soil N vertically and laterally, depending upon local micro-topography. As a preliminary experiment, the model is also implemented for Pan-Arctic region in 1-D column mode (i.e. no lateral connection), showing significant differences compared to stand-alone ALM. The developed ALM-PFLOTRAN coupling codes embeded within ESM will be used for Pan-Arctic regional evaluation of climate change-caused ecosystem responses and their feedbacks to climate system at various scales.

The annual cycles of phytoplankton biomass

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winder, M.; Cloern, J.E.

2010-01-01

Terrestrial plants are powerful climate sentinels because their annual cycles of growth, reproduction and senescence are finely tuned to the annual climate cycle having a period of one year. Consistency in the seasonal phasing of terrestrial plant activity provides a relatively low-noise background from which phenological shifts can be detected and attributed to climate change. Here, we ask whether phytoplankton biomass also fluctuates over a consistent annual cycle in lake, estuarine-coastal and ocean ecosystems and whether there is a characteristic phenology of phytoplankton as a consistent phase and amplitude of variability. We compiled 125 time series of phytoplankton biomass (chloro-phyll a concentration) from temperate and subtropical zones and used wavelet analysis to extract their dominant periods of variability and the recurrence strength at those periods. Fewer than half (48%) of the series had a dominant 12-month period of variability, commonly expressed as the canonical spring-bloom pattern. About 20 per cent had a dominant six-month period of variability, commonly expressed as the spring and autumn or winter and summer blooms of temperate lakes and oceans. These annual patterns varied in recurrence strength across sites, and did not persist over the full series duration at some sites. About a third of the series had no component of variability at either the six-or 12-month period, reflecting a series of irregular pulses of biomass. These findings show that there is high variability of annual phytoplankton cycles across ecosystems, and that climate-driven annual cycles can be obscured by other drivers of population variability, including human disturbance, aperiodic weather events and strong trophic coupling between phytoplankton and their consumers. Regulation of phytoplankton biomass by multiple processes operating at multiple time scales adds complexity to the challenge of detecting climate-driven trends in aquatic ecosystems where the noise to signal ratio is high. ?? 2010 The Royal Society.

Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: a long-term demographic study on tawny owls.

PubMed

Millon, Alexandre; Petty, Steve J; Little, Brian; Gimenez, Olivier; Cornulier, Thomas; Lambin, Xavier

2014-06-01

Predicting the dynamics of animal populations with different life histories requires careful understanding of demographic responses to multifaceted aspects of global changes, such as climate and trophic interactions. Continent-scale dampening of vole population cycles, keystone herbivores in many ecosystems, has been recently documented across Europe. However, its impact on guilds of vole-eating predators remains unknown. To quantify this impact, we used a 27-year study of an avian predator (tawny owl) and its main prey (field vole) collected in Kielder Forest (UK) where vole dynamics shifted from a high- to a low-amplitude fluctuation regime in the mid-1990s. We measured the functional responses of four demographic rates to changes in prey dynamics and winter climate, characterized by wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO). First-year and adult survival were positively affected by vole density in autumn but relatively insensitive to wNAO. The probability of breeding and number of fledglings were higher in years with high spring vole densities and negative wNAO (i.e. colder and drier winters). These functional responses were incorporated into a stochastic population model. The size of the predator population was projected under scenarios combining prey dynamics and winter climate to test whether climate buffers or alternatively magnifies the impact of changes in prey dynamics. We found the observed dampening vole cycles, characterized by low spring densities, drastically reduced the breeding probability of predators. Our results illustrate that (i) change in trophic interactions can override direct climate change effect; and (ii) the demographic resilience entailed by longevity and the occurrence of a floater stage may be insufficient to buffer hypothesized environmental changes. Ultimately, dampened prey cycles would drive our owl local population towards extinction, with winter climate regimes only altering persistence time. These results suggest that other vole-eating predators are likely to be threatened by dampening vole cycles throughout Europe. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and soil nutrient addition on the growth of Phragmites australis under different drying-rewetting cycles.

PubMed

Liang, Jin-Feng; An, Jing; Gao, Jun-Qin; Zhang, Xiao-Ya; Yu, Fei-Hai

2018-01-01

The frequency of soil drying-rewetting cycles is predicted to increase under future global climate change, and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) are symbiotic with most plants. However, it remains unknown how AMF affect plant growth under different frequencies of soil drying-rewetting cycles. We subjected a clonal wetland plant Phragmites australis to three frequencies of drying-rewetting cycles (1, 2, or 4 cycles), two nutrient treatments (with or without), and two AMF treatments (with or without) for 64 days. AMF promoted the growth of P. australis, especially in the 2 cycles of the drying-rewetting treatment. AMF had a significant positive effect on leaf mass and number of ramets in the 2 cycles of the drying-rewetting treatment with nutrient addition. In the 2 cycles of drying-rewetting treatment without nutrient addition, AMF increased leaf area and decreased belowground to aboveground biomass ratio. These results indicate that AMF may assist P. australis in coping with medium frequency of drying-rewetting cycles, and provide theoretical guidance for predicting how wetland plants respond to future global climate change.

Potential Evaluation of Solar Heat Assisted Desiccant Hybrid Air Conditioning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tran, Thien Nha; Hamamoto, Yoshinori; Akisawa, Atsushi; Kashiwagi, Takao

The solar thermal driven desiccant dehumidification-absorption cooling hybrid system has superior advantage in hot-humid climate regions. The reasonable air processing of desiccant hybrid air conditioning system and the utility of clean and free energy make the system environment friendly and energy efficient. The study investigates the performance of the desiccant dehumidification air conditioning systems with solar thermal assistant. The investigation is performed for three cases which are combinations of solar thermal and absorption cooling systems with different heat supply temperature levels. Two solar thermal systems are used in the study: the flat plate collector (FPC) and the vacuum tube with compound parabolic concentrator (CPC). The single-effect and high energy efficient double-, triple-effect LiBr-water absorption cooling cycles are considered for cooling systems. COP of desiccant hybrid air conditioning systems are determined. The evaluation of these systems is subsequently performed. The single effect absorption cooling cycle combined with the flat plate collector solar system is found to be the most energy efficient air conditioning system.

Effects of repetitive droughts on carbon, nutrient and water cycles of heathland ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rineau, Francois; Beenaerts, Natalie; Nijs, Ivan; De Boeck, Hans; Vangronsveld, Jaco

2017-04-01

A large body of research is now focusing on the understanding of mechanisms regulating ecosystem functioning, predictions on their activity in the long-term, and the management practices to keep them running. For this purpose, Hasselt University decided to invest in the construction of a high technological research infrastructure: the "Ecotron Hasselt University", where twelve large ecosystem replicates can be continuously monitored and controlled. The ecotrons will be fed with real-time climatic data from a nearby ICOS tower located on top of a heathland landscape. The research performed there will focus on understanding the response of heathland ecosystem services (ES) to yearly repeated droughts of different intensities. We aim to perform as well an economical valuation of these ES. From a biological point of view, we will measure soil processes that drive the three most valuable ES: water, C and nutrient cycles, and especially how soil organisms affect them, through which mechanisms and at different drought intensities. Species interactions and their influence on C sequestration and organic matter degradation will be also incorporated into a state-of-the art soil C cycling model.

Energy and greenhouse gas life cycle assessment and cost analysis of aerobic and anaerobic membrane bioreactor systems: Influence of scale, population density, climate, and methane recovery.

PubMed

Cashman, Sarah; Ma, Xin; Mosley, Janet; Garland, Jay; Crone, Brian; Xue, Xiaobo

2018-04-01

This study calculated the energy and greenhouse gas life cycle and cost profiles of transitional aerobic membrane bioreactors (AeMBR) and anaerobic membrane bioreactors (AnMBR). Membrane bioreactors (MBR) represent a promising technology for decentralized wastewater treatment and can produce recycled water to displace potable water. Energy recovery is possible with methane generated from AnMBRs. Scenarios for these technologies were investigated for different scale systems serving various population densities under a number of climate conditions with multiple methane recovery options. When incorporating the displacement of drinking water, AeMBRs started to realize net energy benefits at the 1 million gallons per day (MGD) scale and mesophilic AnMBRs at the 5 MGD scale. For all scales, the psychrophilic AnMBR resulted in net energy benefits. This study provides insights into key performance characteristics needed before an informed decision can be made for a community to transition towards the adoption of MBR technologies. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Comparing environmental consequences of anaerobic mono- and co-digestion of pig manure to produce bio-energy--a life cycle perspective.

PubMed

De Vries, J W; Vinken, T M W J; Hamelin, L; De Boer, I J M

2012-12-01

The aim of this work was to assess the environmental consequences of anaerobic mono- and co-digestion of pig manure to produce bio-energy, from a life cycle perspective. This included assessing environmental impacts and land use change emissions (LUC) required to replace used co-substrates for anaerobic digestion. Environmental impact categories considered were climate change, terrestrial acidification, marine and freshwater eutrophication, particulate matter formation, land use, and fossil fuel depletion. Six scenarios were evaluated: mono-digestion of manure, co-digestion with: maize silage, maize silage and glycerin, beet tails, wheat yeast concentrate (WYC), and roadside grass. Mono-digestion reduced most impacts, but represented a limited source for bio-energy. Co-digestion with maize silage, beet tails, and WYC (competing with animal feed), and glycerin increased bio-energy production (up to 568%), but at expense of increasing climate change (through LUC), marine eutrophication, and land use. Co-digestion with wastes or residues like roadside grass gave the best environmental performance. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Solar cycle modulation of Southern Annular Mode -Energy-momentum analysis-

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuroda, Y.

2016-12-01

Climate is affected by various factors, including oceanic changes and volcanic eruptions. 11-year solar cycle change is one of such important factors. Observational analysis shows that the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in late-winter/spring show structural modulation associated with 11-year solar cycle. In fact, SAM-related signal tends to extend from surface to upper stratosphere and persistent longer period in the High Solar (HS) years, whereas it is restricted in the troposphere and not persist in the Low Solar (LS) years. In the present study, we used 35-year record of ERA-Interim reanalysis data and performed wave-energy and momentum analysis on the solar-cycle modulation of the SAM to examine key factors to create such solar-SAM relationship. It is found that enhanced wave-mean flow interaction tends to take place in the middle stratosphere in association with enhanced energy input from diabatic heating on September only in HS years. The result suggests atmospheric and solar conditions on September are keys to create solar-SAM relationship.

Carbon Cycle Dynamics through the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum: Orbital Couplings to Lacustrine Cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosengard, S. Z.; Grogan, D. S.; Whiteside, J. H.; van Keuren, M.; Musher, D.

2010-12-01

The early Eocene represents the most recent hothouse climate state of Earth history, a period during which Earth’s surface temperatures warmed and reached a steady peak at the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), 53.5-50 Ma. Interspersed through the primary warming interval were several hyperthermals, or rapid peaks in surface temperature and pulses of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, followed by rapid declines, lasting 10^4 to 10^5 years. Various hypotheses have been offered to explain the climatic triggers during the hothouse interval, including changes in ocean circulation, methane release from hydrates, volcanism, and turnover of terrestrial organic matter, implicating various couplings and feedbacks in the global carbon cycle. The present study investigates the prevailing changes in carbon cycle dynamics that occurred during a specific subinterval of the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum. We sampled a carbon-rich 300-ft ( 1100 kyr) section of lacustrine Green River Formation sediments from the TOSCO core in the Uinta Basin at a one-foot resolution for organic carbon content and δ^{13}C. The compiled data comprise a high-resolution profile of total organic carbon and isotopic organic carbon composition through the section, showing cyclic patterns that we hypothesize reflect orbital signals. Bulk isotopic carbon and shale oil measurements from an earlier Fischer Assay across TOSCO’s entire 1030-ft core were then filtered using the expected frequency of a 23-kyr precession cycle. The overlaid cycles reveal δ^{13}C and oil content to be anti-phase through the 300-ft section, except for an interval of 50 feet (180 kyr) from the Mahogany Zone to the B-groove of the core, where the two measurements are in-phase. Given that shale oil, a proxy for lake primary productivity and carbon burial, and δ^{13}C typically correlate inversely, this short, 180-kyr interval of in-phase variation suggests a significant alteration in the local carbon cycle. These preliminary findings reveal a dynamic, inconstant coupling between precessional variations in solar insolation and the carbon cycle during the EECO. As the organic carbon profile fundamentally records ecosystem processes, this precession-carbon cycle coupling is likely modulated by ecological dynamics within the paleolake, such as changing trophic and community structure. Because precession-driven changes in solar insolation dominantly control hydrology and lake water balance, the lacustrine ecosystem response to such perturbations may have precipitated key shifts in the dynamics of carbon cycling through the most stable interval of Earth’s latest hothouse.

Assessing the performances of low impact development alternatives by long-term simulation for a semi-arid area in Tianjin, northern China.

PubMed

Huang, Jinhui Jeanne; Li, Yu; Niu, Shuai; Zhou, Shu H

2014-01-01

For areas that are urbanized rapidly, the practice of low impact development (LID) has gained an important place in stormwater management and urban planning due to its capability and beneficial effects in restoring the original hydrological cycle. The performances of LID alternatives can vary substantially due to different climate conditions. This study investigated the performances of five LID alternatives under a semi-arid climate in northern China on water balance and flood control. A numerical model, Storm Water Management Model version 5 (US Environmental Protection Agency), was employed to run 10 years' rainfall events for these objectives. Two evaluation methods were proposed in this study: the efficiency index for water balance and a performance radar chart. The investigation of the five LID alternatives revealed that these LID alternatives functioned differently in flood control and water balance, and porous pavement performed best in all indices except the lag time. The two evaluation methods, in conjunction with the long-term numerical simulation, can facilitate design and decision making by providing a clear picture of the performance and functions for these LID alternatives.

The Coupled Mars Dust and Water Cycles: Understanding How Clouds Affect the Vertical Distribution and Meridional Transport of Dust and Water.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahre, M. A.

2015-01-01

The dust and water cycles are crucial to the current Martian climate, and they are coupled through cloud formation. Dust strongly impacts the thermal structure of the atmosphere and thus greatly affects atmospheric circulation, while clouds provide radiative forcing and control the hemispheric exchange of water through the modification of the vertical distributions of water and dust. Recent improvements in the quality and sophistication of both observations and climate models allow for a more comprehensive understanding of how the interaction between the dust and water cycles (through cloud formation) affects the dust and water cycles individually. We focus here on the effects of clouds on the vertical distribution of dust and water, and how those vertical distributions control the net meridional transport of water. For this study, we utilize observations of temperature, dust and water ice from the Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) combined with the NASA ARC Mars Global Climate Model (MGCM). We demonstrate that the magnitude and nature of the net meridional transport of water between the northern and southern hemispheres during NH summer is sensitive to the vertical structure of the simulated aphelion cloud belt. We further examine how clouds influence the atmospheric thermal structure and thus the vertical structure of the cloud belt. Our goal is to identify and understand the importance of radiative/dynamic feedbacks due to the physical processes involved with cloud formation and evolution on the current climate of Mars.

The Mars Dust and Water Cycles: Investigating the Influence of Clouds on the Vertical Distribution and Meridional Transport of Dust and Water.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahre, M. A.; Haberle, R. M.; Hollingsworth, J. L.; Brecht, A. S.; Urata, R.

2015-01-01

The dust and water cycles are critical to the current Martian climate, and they interact with each other through cloud formation. Dust modulates the thermal structure of the atmosphere and thus greatly influences atmospheric circulation. Clouds provide radiative forcing and control the net hemispheric transport of water through the alteration of the vertical distributions of water and dust. Recent advancements in the quality and sophistication of both climate models and observations enable an increased understanding of how the coupling between the dust and water cycles (through cloud formation) impacts the dust and water cycles. We focus here on the effects of clouds on the vertical distributions of dust and water and how those vertical distributions control the net meridional transport of water. We utilize observations of temperature, dust and water ice from the Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) and the NASA ARC Mars Global Climate Model (MGCM) to show that the magnitude and nature of the hemispheric exchange of water during NH summer is sensitive to the vertical structure of the simulated aphelion cloud belt. Further, we investigate how clouds influence atmospheric temperatures and thus the vertical structure of the cloud belt. Our goal is to isolate and understand the importance of radiative/dynamic feedbacks due to the physical processes involved with cloud formation and evolution on the current climate of Mars.

The Mars Dust and Water Cycles: Investigating the Influence of Clouds on the Vertical Distribution and Meridional Transport of Dust and Water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahre, Melinda A.; Haberle, Robert M.; Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Brecht, Amanda S.; Urata, Richard A.

2015-11-01

The dust and water cycles are critical to the current Martian climate, and they interact with each other through cloud formation. Dust modulates the thermal structure of the atmosphere and thus greatly influences atmospheric circulation. Clouds provide radiative forcing and control the net hemispheric transport of water through the alteration of the vertical distributions of water and dust. Recent advancements in the quality and sophistication of both climate models and observations enable an increased understanding of how the coupling between the dust and water cycles (through cloud formation) impacts the dust and water cycles. We focus here on the effects of clouds on the vertical distributions of dust and water and how those vertical distributions control the net meridional transport of water. We utilize observations of temperature, dust and water ice from the Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) and the NASA ARC Mars Global Climate Model (MGCM) to show that the magnitude and nature of the hemispheric exchange of water during NH summer is sensitive to the vertical structure of the simulated aphelion cloud belt. Further, we investigate how clouds influence atmospheric temperatures and thus the vertical structure of the cloud belt. Our goal is to isolate and understand the importance of radiative/dynamic feedbacks due to the physical processes involved with cloud formation and evolution on the current climate of Mars.

Post-Palaeozoic evolution of weathered landsurfaces in Uganda by tectonically controlled deep weathering and stripping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, R. G.; Howard, K. W. F.

1998-11-01

A model for the evolution of weathered landsurfaces in Uganda is developed using available geotectonic, climatic, sedimentological and chronological data. The model demonstrates the pivotal role of tectonic uplift in inducing cycles of stripping, and tectonic quiescence for cycles of deep weathering. It is able to account for the development of key landforms, such as inselbergs and duricrust-capped plateaux, which previous hypotheses of landscape evolution that are based on climatic or eustatic controls are unable to explain. Development of the Ugandan landscape is traced back to the Permian. Following late Palaeozoic glaciation, a trend towards warmer and more humid climates through the Mesozoic enabled deep weathering of the Jurassic/mid-Cretaceous surface in Uganda during a period of prolonged tectonic quiescence. Uplift associated with the opening South Atlantic Ocean terminated this cycle and instigated a cycle of stripping between the mid-Cretaceous and early Miocene. Deep weathering on the succeeding Miocene to recent (African) surface has occurred from Miocene to present but has been interrupted in the areas adjacent to the western rift where development of a new drainage base level has prompted cycles of stripping in the Miocene and Pleistocene.

Global water cycle amplifying at less than the Clausius-Clapeyron rate

PubMed Central

Skliris, Nikolaos; Zika, Jan D.; Nurser, George; Josey, Simon A.; Marsh, Robert

2016-01-01

A change in the cycle of water from dry to wet regions of the globe would have far reaching impact on humanity. As air warms, its capacity to hold water increases at the Clausius-Clapeyron rate (CC, approximately 7% °C−1). Surface ocean salinity observations have suggested the water cycle has amplified at close to CC following recent global warming, a result that was found to be at odds with state-of the art climate models. Here we employ a method based on water mass transformation theory for inferring changes in the water cycle from changes in three-dimensional salinity. Using full depth salinity observations we infer a water cycle amplification of 3.0 ± 1.6% °C−1 over 1950–2010. Climate models agree with observations in terms of a water cycle amplification (4.3 ± 2.0% °C−1) substantially less than CC adding confidence to projections of total water cycle change under greenhouse gas emission scenarios. PMID:27934946

Global water cycle amplifying at less than the Clausius-Clapeyron rate.

PubMed

Skliris, Nikolaos; Zika, Jan D; Nurser, George; Josey, Simon A; Marsh, Robert

2016-12-09

A change in the cycle of water from dry to wet regions of the globe would have far reaching impact on humanity. As air warms, its capacity to hold water increases at the Clausius-Clapeyron rate (CC, approximately 7% °C -1 ). Surface ocean salinity observations have suggested the water cycle has amplified at close to CC following recent global warming, a result that was found to be at odds with state-of the art climate models. Here we employ a method based on water mass transformation theory for inferring changes in the water cycle from changes in three-dimensional salinity. Using full depth salinity observations we infer a water cycle amplification of 3.0 ± 1.6% °C -1 over 1950-2010. Climate models agree with observations in terms of a water cycle amplification (4.3 ± 2.0% °C -1 ) substantially less than CC adding confidence to projections of total water cycle change under greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

Global water cycle amplifying at less than the Clausius-Clapeyron rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skliris, Nikolaos; Zika, Jan D.; Nurser, George; Josey, Simon A.; Marsh, Robert

2016-12-01

A change in the cycle of water from dry to wet regions of the globe would have far reaching impact on humanity. As air warms, its capacity to hold water increases at the Clausius-Clapeyron rate (CC, approximately 7% °C-1). Surface ocean salinity observations have suggested the water cycle has amplified at close to CC following recent global warming, a result that was found to be at odds with state-of the art climate models. Here we employ a method based on water mass transformation theory for inferring changes in the water cycle from changes in three-dimensional salinity. Using full depth salinity observations we infer a water cycle amplification of 3.0 ± 1.6% °C-1 over 1950-2010. Climate models agree with observations in terms of a water cycle amplification (4.3 ± 2.0% °C-1) substantially less than CC adding confidence to projections of total water cycle change under greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

Life-cycle energy production and emissions mitigation by comprehensive biogas-digestate utilization.

PubMed

Chen, Shaoqing; Chen, Bin; Song, Dan

2012-06-01

In the context of global energy shortages and climate change, developing biogas plants with links to agricultural system has become an important strategy for cleaner rural energy and renewable agriculture. In this study, a life-cycle energy and environmental assessment was performed for a biogas-digestate utilization system in China. The results suggest that biogas utilization (heating, illumination, and fuel) and comprehensive digestate reuse are of equal importance in the total energy production of the system, and they also play an important role in systemic greenhouse gas mitigation. Improvement can be achieved in both energy production and emissions mitigation when the ratio of the current three biogas utilization pathways is adjusted. Regarding digestate reuse, a tradeoff between energy and environmental performance can be obtained by focusing on the substitution for top-dressing, base fertilizers, and the application to seed soaking. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maximum warming occurs about one decade after carbon dioxide emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricke, K.; Caldeira, K.

2014-12-01

There has been a long tradition of estimating the amount of climate change that would result from various carbon dioxide emission or concentration scenarios but there has been relatively little quantitative analysis of how long it takes to feel the consequences of an individual carbon dioxide emission. Using conjoined results of recent carbon-cycle and physical-climate model intercomparison projects, we find the median time between an emission and maximum warming is 10.1 years, with a 90% probability range of 6.6 to 30.7 years. We evaluate uncertainties in timing and amount of warming, partitioning them into three contributing factors: carbon cycle, climate sensitivity and ocean thermal inertia. To characterize the carbon cycle uncertainty associated with the global temperature response to a carbon dioxide emission today, we use fits to the time series of carbon dioxide concentrations from a CO2-impulse response function model intercomparison project's 15 ensemble members (1). To characterize both the uncertainty in climate sensitivity and in the thermal inertia of the climate system, we use fits to the time series of global temperature change from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5; 2) abrupt4xco2 experiment's 20 ensemble's members separating the effects of each uncertainty factors using one of two simple physical models for each CMIP5 climate model. This yields 6,000 possible combinations of these three factors using a standard convolution integral approach. Our results indicate that benefits of avoided climate damage from avoided CO2 emissions will be manifested within the lifetimes of people who acted to avoid that emission. While the relevant time lags imposed by the climate system are substantially shorter than a human lifetime, they are substantially longer than the typical political election cycle, making the delay and its associated uncertainties both economically and politically significant. References: 1. Joos F et al. (2013) Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis. Atmos Chem Phys 13:2793-2825. 2. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2011) An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485-498.

Temperature and rainfall interact to control carbon cycling in tropical forests.

PubMed

Taylor, Philip G; Cleveland, Cory C; Wieder, William R; Sullivan, Benjamin W; Doughty, Christopher E; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Townsend, Alan R

2017-06-01

Tropical forests dominate global terrestrial carbon (C) exchange, and recent droughts in the Amazon Basin have contributed to short-term declines in terrestrial carbon dioxide uptake and storage. However, the effects of longer-term climate variability on tropical forest carbon dynamics are still not well understood. We synthesised field data from more than 150 tropical forest sites to explore how climate regulates tropical forest aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and organic matter decomposition, and combined those data with two existing databases to explore climate - C relationships globally. While previous analyses have focused on the effects of either temperature or rainfall on ANPP, our results highlight the importance of interactions between temperature and rainfall on the C cycle. In cool forests (< 20 °C), high rainfall slowed rates of C cycling, but in warm tropical forests (> 20 °C) it consistently enhanced both ANPP and decomposition. At the global scale, our analysis showed an increase in ANPP with rainfall in relatively warm sites, inconsistent with declines in ANPP with rainfall reported previously. Overall, our results alter our understanding of climate - C cycle relationships, with high precipitation accelerating rates of C exchange with the atmosphere in the most productive biome on earth. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Using Clustering to Establish Climate Regimes from PCM Output

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oglesby, Robert; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor); Hoffman, Forrest; Hargrove, W. W.; Erickson, D.

2002-01-01

A multivariate statistical clustering technique--based on the k-means algorithm of Hartigan has been used to extract patterns of climatological significance from 200 years of general circulation model (GCM) output. Originally developed and implemented on a Beowulf-style parallel computer constructed by Hoffman and Hargrove from surplus commodity desktop PCs, the high performance parallel clustering algorithm was previously applied to the derivation of ecoregions from map stacks of 9 and 25 geophysical conditions or variables for the conterminous U.S. at a resolution of 1 sq km. Now applied both across space and through time, the clustering technique yields temporally-varying climate regimes predicted by transient runs of the Parallel Climate Model (PCM). Using a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and clustering four fields of significance to the global water cycle (surface temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and snow depth) from 1871 through 2098, the authors' analysis shows an increase in spatial area occupied by the cluster or climate regime which typifies desert regions (i.e., an increase in desertification) and a decrease in the spatial area occupied by the climate regime typifying winter-time high latitude perma-frost regions. The patterns of cluster changes have been analyzed to understand the predicted variability in the water cycle on global and continental scales. In addition, representative climate regimes were determined by taking three 10-year averages of the fields 100 years apart for northern hemisphere winter (December, January, and February) and summer (June, July, and August). The result is global maps of typical seasonal climate regimes for 100 years in the past, for the present, and for 100 years into the future. Using three-dimensional data or phase space representations of these climate regimes (i.e., the cluster centroids), the authors demonstrate the portion of this phase space occupied by the land surface at all points in space and time. Any single spot on the globe will exist in one of these climate regimes at any single point in time. By incrementing time, that same spot will trace out a trajectory or orbit between and among these climate regimes (or atmospheric states) in phase (or state) space. When a geographic region enters a state it never previously visited, a climatic change is said to have occurred. Tracing out the entire trajectory of a single spot on the globe yields a 'manifold' in state space representing the shape of its predicted climate occupancy. This sort of analysis enables a researcher to more easily grasp the multivariate behavior of the climate system.

The impact of greenhouse climate change on the energetics and hydrologic processes of mid-latitude transient eddies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Branscome, Lee E.; Gutowski, William J., Jr.

1991-01-01

Atmospheric transient eddies contribute significantly to mid-latitude energy and water vapor transports. Changes in the global climate, as induced by greenhouse enhancement, will likely alter transient eddy behavior. Unraveling all the feedbacks that occur in general circulation models (GCMs) can be difficult. The transient eddies are isolated from the feedbacks and are focused on the response of the eddies to zonal-mean climate changes that result from CO2-doubling. Using a primitive-equation spectral model, the impact of climate change on the life cycles of transient eddies is examined. Transient eddy behavior in experiments is compared with initial conditions that are given by the zonal-mean climates of the GCMs with current and doubled amounts of CO2. The smaller meridional temperature gradient in a doubled CO2 climate leads to a reduction in eddy kinetic energy, especially in the subtropics. The decrease in subtropical eddy energy is related to a substantial reduction in equatorward flux of eddy activity during the latter part of the life cycle. The reduction in equatorward energy flux alters the moisture cycle. Eddy meridional transport of water vapor is shifted slightly poleward and subtropical precipitation is reduced. The water vapor transport exhibits a relatively small change in magnitude, compared to changes in eddy energy, due to the compensating effect of higher specific humidity in the doubled-CO2 climate. An increase in high-latitude precipitation is related to the poleward shift in eddy water vapor flux. Surface evaporation amplifies climatic changes in water vapor transport and precipitation in the experiments.

Are whooping cranes destined for extinction? Climate change imperils recruitment and population growth.

PubMed

Butler, Matthew J; Metzger, Kristine L; Harris, Grant M

2017-04-01

Identifying climatic drivers of an animal population's vital rates and locating where they operate steers conservation efforts to optimize species recovery. The population growth of endangered whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) hinges on juvenile recruitment. Therefore, we identify climatic drivers (solar activity [sunspots] and weather) of whooping crane recruitment throughout the species' life cycle (breeding, migration, wintering). Our method uses a repeated cross-validated absolute shrinkage and selection operator approach to identify drivers of recruitment. We model effects of climate change on those drivers to predict whooping crane population growth given alternative scenarios of climate change and solar activity. Years with fewer sunspots indicated greater recruitment. Increased precipitation during autumn migration signified less recruitment. On the breeding grounds, fewer days below freezing during winter and more precipitation during breeding suggested less recruitment. We predicted whooping crane recruitment and population growth may fall below long-term averages during all solar cycles when atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases, as expected, to 500 ppm by 2050. Species recovery during a typical solar cycle with 500 ppm may require eight times longer than conditions without climate change and the chance of population decline increases to 31%. Although this whooping crane population is growing and may appear secure, long-term threats imposed by climate change and increased solar activity may jeopardize its persistence. Weather on the breeding grounds likely affects recruitment through hydrological processes and predation risk, whereas precipitation during autumn migration may influence juvenile mortality. Mitigating threats or abating climate change should occur within ≈30 years or this wild population of whooping cranes may begin declining.

A Unified Approach to Quantifying Feedbacks in Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, K. E.

2008-12-01

In order to speed progress in reducing uncertainty in climate projections, the processes that most strongly influence those projections must be identified. It is of some importance, therefore, to assess the relative strengths of various climate feedbacks and to determine the degree to which various earth system models (ESMs) agree in their simulations of these processes. Climate feedbacks have been traditionally quantified in terms of their impact on the radiative balance of the planet, whereas carbon cycle responses have been assessed in terms of the size of the perturbations to the surface fluxes of carbon dioxide. In this study we introduce a diagnostic strategy for unifying the two approaches, which allows us to directly compare the strength of carbon-climate feedbacks with other conventional climate feedbacks associated with atmospheric and surface changes. Applying this strategy to a highly simplified model of the carbon-climate system demonstrates the viability of the approach. In the simple model we find that even if the strength of the carbon-climate feedbacks is very large, the uncertainty associated with the overall response of the climate system is likely to be dominated by uncertainties in the much larger feedbacks associated with clouds. This does not imply that the carbon cycle itself is unimportant, only that changes in the carbon cycle that are associated with climate change have a relatively small impact on global temperatures. This new, unified diagnostic approach is suitable for assessing feedbacks in even the most sophisticated earth system models. It will be interesting to see whether our preliminary conclusions are confirmed when output from the more realistic models is analyzed. This work was carried out at the University of California Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract W-7405-Eng-48.

Climate extremes and the carbon cycle - a review using an integrated approach with regional examples for forests & native ecosystems -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, D.; Reichstein, M.; Bahn, M.; Beer, C.; Ciais, P.; Mahecha, M.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Smith, P.; van Oijen, M.; Walz, A.

2012-04-01

The terrestrial carbon cycle provides an important biogeochemical feedback to climate and is itself particularly susceptible to extreme climate events. Climate extremes can override any (positive) effects of mean climate change as shown in European and recent US-American heat waves and dry spells. They can impact the structure, composition, and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems and have the potential to cause rapid carbon losses from accumulated stocks. We review how climate extremes like severe droughts, heat waves, extreme precipitation or storms can cause direct impacts on the CO2 fluxes [e.g. due to extreme temperature and/ or drought events] as well as lagged impacts on the carbon cycle [e.g. via an increased fire risk, or disease outbreaks and pest invasions]. The relative impact of the different climate extremes varies according to climate region and vegetation type. We present lagged effects on plant growth (and mortality) in the year(s) following an extreme event and their impacts on the carbon sequestration of forests and natural ecosystems. Comprehensive regional or even continental quantification with regard to extreme events is missing, and especially compound extreme events, the role of lagged effects and aspects of the return frequency are not studied enough. In a case study of a Mediterranean ecosystem we illustrate that the response of the net carbon balance at ecosystem level to regional climate change is hard to predict as interacting and partly compensating processes are affected and several processes which have the ability to substantially alter the carbon balance are not or not sufficiently represented in state-of-the-art biogeochemical models.

Winter climate change effects on soil C and N cycles in urban grasslands.

PubMed

Durán, Jorge; Rodríguez, Alexandra; Morse, Jennifer L; Groffman, Peter M

2013-09-01

Despite growing recognition of the role that cities have in global biogeochemical cycles, urban systems are among the least understood of all ecosystems. Urban grasslands are expanding rapidly along with urbanization, which is expected to increase at unprecedented rates in upcoming decades. The large and increasing area of urban grasslands and their impact on water and air quality justify the need for a better understanding of their biogeochemical cycles. There is also great uncertainty about the effect that climate change, especially changes in winter snow cover, will have on nutrient cycles in urban grasslands. We aimed to evaluate how reduced snow accumulation directly affects winter soil frost dynamics, and indirectly greenhouse gas fluxes and the processing of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) during the subsequent growing season in northern urban grasslands. Both artificial and natural snow reduction increased winter soil frost, affecting winter microbial C and N processing, accelerating C and N cycles and increasing soil : atmosphere greenhouse gas exchange during the subsequent growing season. With lower snow accumulations that are predicted with climate change, we found decreases in N retention in these ecosystems, and increases in N2 O and CO2 flux to the atmosphere, significantly increasing the global warming potential of urban grasslands. Our results suggest that the environmental impacts of these rapidly expanding ecosystems are likely to increase as climate change brings milder winters and more extensive soil frost. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ecological controls on water-cycle response to climate variability in deserts.

PubMed

Scanlon, B R; Levitt, D G; Reedy, R C; Keese, K E; Sully, M J

2005-04-26

The impact of climate variability on the water cycle in desert ecosystems is controlled by biospheric feedback at interannual to millennial timescales. This paper describes a unique field dataset from weighing lysimeters beneath nonvegetated and vegetated systems that unequivocally demonstrates the role of vegetation dynamics in controlling water cycle response to interannual climate variability related to El Nino southern oscillation in the Mojave Desert. Extreme El Nino winter precipitation (2.3-2.5 times normal) typical of the U.S. Southwest would be expected to increase groundwater recharge, which is critical for water resources in semiarid and arid regions. However, lysimeter data indicate that rapid increases in vegetation productivity in response to elevated winter precipitation reduced soil water storage to half of that in a nonvegetated lysimeter, thereby precluding deep drainage below the root zone that would otherwise result in groundwater recharge. Vegetation dynamics have been controlling the water cycle in interdrainage desert areas throughout the U.S. Southwest, maintaining dry soil conditions and upward soil water flow since the last glacial period (10,000-15,000 yr ago), as shown by soil water chloride accumulations. Although measurements are specific to the U.S. Southwest, correlations between satellite-based vegetation productivity and elevated precipitation related to El Nino southern oscillation indicate this model may be applicable to desert basins globally. Understanding the two-way coupling between vegetation dynamics and the water cycle is critical for predicting how climate variability influences hydrology and water resources in water-limited landscapes.

Influence of Lake Malawi on regional climate from a double-nested regional climate model experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diallo, Ismaïla; Giorgi, Filippo; Stordal, Frode

2017-07-01

We evaluate the performance of the regional climate model (RCM) RegCM4 coupled to a one dimensional lake model for Lake Malawi (also known as Lake Nyasa in Tanzania and Lago Niassa in Mozambique) in simulating the main characteristics of rainfall and near surface air temperature patterns over the region. We further investigate the impact of the lake on the simulated regional climate. Two RCM simulations, one with and one without Lake Malawi, are performed for the period 1992-2008 at a grid spacing of 10 km by nesting the model within a corresponding 25 km resolution run ("mother domain") encompassing all Southern Africa. The performance of the model in simulating the mean seasonal patterns of near surface air temperature and precipitation is good compared with previous applications of this model. The temperature biases are generally less than 2.5 °C, while the seasonal cycle of precipitation over the region matches observations well. Moreover, the one-dimensional lake model reproduces fairly well the geographical pattern of observed (from satellite measurements) lake surface temperature as well as its mean month-to-month evolution. The Malawi Lake-effects on the moisture and atmospheric circulation of the surrounding region result in an increase of water vapor mixing ratio due to increased evaporation in the presence of the lake, which combines with enhanced rising motions and low-level moisture convergence to yield a significant precipitation increase over the lake and neighboring areas during the whole austral summer rainy season.

Improving operational land surface model canopy evapotranspiration in Africa using a direct remote sensing approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, M.; Tu, K.; Funk, C.; Michaelsen, J.; Williams, P.; Williams, C.; Ardö, J.; Boucher, M.; Cappelaere, B.; de Grandcourt, A.; Nickless, A.; Nouvellon, Y.; Scholes, R.; Kutsch, W.

2013-03-01

Climate change is expected to have the greatest impact on the world's economically poor. In the Sahel, a climatically sensitive region where rain-fed agriculture is the primary livelihood, expected decreases in water supply will increase food insecurity. Studies on climate change and the intensification of the water cycle in sub-Saharan Africa are few. This is due in part to poor calibration of modeled evapotranspiration (ET), a key input in continental-scale hydrologic models. In this study, a remote sensing model of transpiration (the primary component of ET), driven by a time series of vegetation indices, was used to substitute transpiration from the Global Land Data Assimilation System realization of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Oregon State University, Air Force, and Hydrology Research Laboratory at National Weather Service Land Surface Model (GNOAH) to improve total ET model estimates for monitoring purposes in sub-Saharan Africa. The performance of the hybrid model was compared against GNOAH ET and the remote sensing method using eight eddy flux towers representing major biomes of sub-Saharan Africa. The greatest improvements in model performance were at humid sites with dense vegetation, while performance at semi-arid sites was poor, but better than the models before hybridization. The reduction in errors using the hybrid model can be attributed to the integration of a simple canopy scheme that depends primarily on low bias surface climate reanalysis data and is driven primarily by a time series of vegetation indices.

Coupled dynamics that determine the position and variability of the ITCZ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, S.; Miyama, T.; Wang, Y.; Xu, H.; de Szoeke, S.

2006-05-01

The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is displaced north of the equator in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, as a result of asymmetry in continental geometry and air-sea interactions. This latitudinal asymmetry plays an important role in shaping the equatorial annual cycle, the seasonality of the equatorial mode in both the ocean basins, and the tropical Atlantic meridional mode. Despite its climatic importance, the northward- displaced ITCZ is poorly simulated in state-of-the-art global climate models, casting doubts on their simulations of the past and current climate and projection of future climate. A regional ocean-atmosphere model has been developed to study the effects of external influences (e.g., high- latitude cooling in the northern North Atlantic) and internal feedback on the Pacific ITCZ. The regional ocean- atmosphere model (ROAM) reproduces salient features of eastern Pacific climate, including a northward- displaced intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) collocated with a zonal band of high SSTs, a low-cloud deck in the Southeast Pacific, the equatorial cold tongue and its annual cycle. The model climate - such as the position of the ITCZ, equatorial annual cycle and maximum SST - is sensitive to the treatment of low cloud. In another experiment where tropical North Atlantic SST is lowered by 2C, equatorial Pacific SST decreases by up to 3C in January-April but changes much less in other seasons, resulting in a weakened equatorial annual cycle. Central American mountains, poorly resolved in global models, appear to play an important role in this cross-basin interaction. The coupled dynamics of the ITCZ in the model and its utility to downscale coarse- resolution paleoclimate simulations will be discussed.

pyhector: A Python interface for the simple climate model Hector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

N Willner, Sven; Hartin, Corinne; Gieseke, Robert

2017-04-01

Pyhector is a Python interface for the simple climate model Hector (Hartin et al. 2015) developed in C++. Simple climate models like Hector can, for instance, be used in the analysis of scenarios within integrated assessment models like GCAM1, in the emulation of complex climate models, and in uncertainty analyses. Hector is an open-source, object oriented, simple global climate carbon cycle model. Its carbon cycle consists of a one pool atmosphere, three terrestrial pools which can be broken down into finer biomes or regions, and four carbon pools in the ocean component. The terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary production andmore » respiration fluxes. The ocean carbon cycle circulates carbon via a simplified thermohaline circulation, calculating air-sea fluxes as well as the marine carbonate system (Hartin et al. 2016). The model input is time series of greenhouse gas emissions; as example scenarios for these the Pyhector package contains the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)2. These were developed to cover the range of baseline and mitigation emissions scenarios and are widely used in climate change research and model intercomparison projects. Using DataFrames from the Python library Pandas (McKinney 2010) as a data structure for the scenarios simplifies generating and adapting scenarios. Other parameters of the Hector model can easily be modified when running the model. Pyhector can be installed using pip from the Python Package Index.3 Source code and issue tracker are available in Pyhector's GitHub repository4. Documentation is provided through Readthedocs5. Usage examples are also contained in the repository as a Jupyter Notebook (Pérez and Granger 2007; Kluyver et al. 2016). Courtesy of the Mybinder project6, the example Notebook can also be executed and modified without installing Pyhector locally.« less

Evaluating the Significance of Paleophylogeographic Species Distribution Models in Reconstructing Quaternary Range-Shifts of Nearctic Chelonians

PubMed Central

Flecks, Morris; Ahmadzadeh, Faraham; Dambach, Johannes; Engler, Jan O.; Habel, Jan Christian; Hartmann, Timo; Hörnes, David; Ihlow, Flora; Schidelko, Kathrin; Stiels, Darius; Polly, P. David

2013-01-01

The climatic cycles of the Quaternary, during which global mean annual temperatures have regularly changed by 5–10°C, provide a special opportunity for studying the rate, magnitude, and effects of geographic responses to changing climates. During the Quaternary, high- and mid-latitude species were extirpated from regions that were covered by ice or otherwise became unsuitable, persisting in refugial retreats where the environment was compatible with their tolerances. In this study we combine modern geographic range data, phylogeny, Pleistocene paleoclimatic models, and isotopic records of changes in global mean annual temperature, to produce a temporally continuous model of geographic changes in potential habitat for 59 species of North American turtles over the past 320 Ka (three full glacial-interglacial cycles). These paleophylogeographic models indicate the areas where past climates were compatible with the modern ranges of the species and serve as hypotheses for how their geographic ranges would have changed in response to Quaternary climate cycles. We test these hypotheses against physiological, genetic, taxonomic and fossil evidence, and we then use them to measure the effects of Quaternary climate cycles on species distributions. Patterns of range expansion, contraction, and fragmentation in the models are strongly congruent with (i) phylogeographic differentiation; (ii) morphological variation; (iii) physiological tolerances; and (iv) intraspecific genetic variability. Modern species with significant interspecific differentiation have geographic ranges that strongly fluctuated and repeatedly fragmented throughout the Quaternary. Modern species with low genetic diversity have geographic distributions that were highly variable and at times exceedingly small in the past. Our results reveal the potential for paleophylogeographic models to (i) reconstruct past geographic range modifications, (ii) identify geographic processes that result in genetic bottlenecks; and (iii) predict threats due to anthropogenic climate change in the future. PMID:24130664

Centennial- to decadal scale environmental shifts in and around Lake Pannon (Vienna Basin) related to a major Late Miocene lake level rise

PubMed Central

Harzhauser, Mathias; Kern, Andrea; Soliman, Ali; Minati, Klaus; Piller, Werner E.; Danielopol, Dan L.; Zuschin, Martin

2010-01-01

A detailed ultra-high-resolution analysis of a 37-cm-long core of Upper Miocene lake sediments of the long-lived Lake Pannon has been performed. Despite a general stable climate at c. 11–9 Ma, several high-frequency oscillations of the paleoenvironments and depositional environments are revealed by the analysis over a short time span of less than 1000 years. Shifts of the lake level, associated with one major 3rd order flooding are reflected by all organisms by a cascade of environmental changes on a decadal scale. Within a few decades, the pollen record documents shifting vegetation zones due to the landward migration of the coast; the dinoflagellate assemblages switch towards “offshore-type” due to the increasing distance to the shore; the benthos is affected by low oxygen conditions due to the deepening. This general trend is interrupted by smaller scale cycles, which lack this tight interconnection. Especially, the pollen data document a clear cyclicity that is expressed by iterative low pollen concentration events. These “negative” cycles are partly reflected by dinoflagellate blooms suggesting a common trigger-mechanism and a connection between terrestrial environments and surface waters of Lake Pannon. The benthic fauna of the core, however, does not reflect these surface water cycles. This forcing mechanism is not understood yet but periodic climatic fluctuations are favoured as hypothesis instead of further lake level changes. Short phases of low precipitation, reducing pollen production and suppressing effective transport by local streams, might be a plausible mechanism. This study is the first hint towards solar activity related high-frequency climate changes during the Vallesian (Late Miocene) around Lake Pannon and should encourage further ultra-high-resolution analyses in the area. PMID:21179376

10 CFR 960.4-2-4 - Climatic changes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Climatic changes. 960.4-2-4 Section 960.4-2-4 Energy... REPOSITORY Postclosure Guidelines § 960.4-2-4 Climatic changes. (a) Qualifying condition. The site shall be...) Favorable conditions. (1) A surface-water system such that expected climatic cycles over the next 100,000...

10 CFR 960.4-2-4 - Climatic changes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Climatic changes. 960.4-2-4 Section 960.4-2-4 Energy... REPOSITORY Postclosure Guidelines § 960.4-2-4 Climatic changes. (a) Qualifying condition. The site shall be...) Favorable conditions. (1) A surface-water system such that expected climatic cycles over the next 100,000...

Can Climate Change Enhance Biology Lessons? A Quasi-Experiment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Monroe, Martha C.; Hall, Stephanie; Li, Christine Jie

2016-01-01

Climate change is a highly charged topic that some adults prefer to ignore. If the same holds true for secondary students, teachers could be challenged to teach about climate change. We structured one activity about the biological concepts of carbon cycle and carbon sequestration in two ways: with and without mention of climate change. Results…

Modification of land-atmosphere interactions by CO2 effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemordant, Leo; Gentine, Pierre

2017-04-01

Plant stomata couple the energy, water and carbon cycles. Increased CO2 modifies the seasonality of the water cycle through stomatal regulation and increased leaf area. As a result, the water saved during the growing season through higher water use efficiency mitigates summer dryness and the impact of potential heat waves. Land-atmosphere interactions and CO2 fertilization together synergistically contribute to increased summer transpiration. This, in turn, alters the surface energy budget and decreases sensible heat flux, mitigating air temperature rise. Accurate representation of the response to higher CO2 levels, and of the coupling between the carbon and water cycles are therefore critical to forecasting seasonal climate, water cycle dynamics and to enhance the accuracy of extreme event prediction under future climate.

Behavior of crushed rock aggregates used in road construction exposed to cold climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsova, Elena; Pérez Fortes, Ana Patricia; Anastasio, Sara; Willy Danielsen, Svein

2016-04-01

Presently, about 90% of the aggregate production in Europe comes from naturally occurring resources: quarries and pits. Due to the increased demand for sand and gravel for construction purposes, not only in building but also in road construction, the last decade has seen a significant trend towards the use of more crushed rock aggregates. This resource has been more and more preferred to sand and gravel thanks to the significant technological development of its process and use phase. The performance of the aggregates is generally evaluated depending on three main factors: the geological origin (mineral composition, texture, structure, degree of weathering), the aggregate processing (crushing, sieving, washing, storing) and the user technology for a specific area of use (e.g. road construction, asphalt binders). Nevertheless climatic conditions should carefully be taken into account in application such as road construction. Large temperature gradients and high levels of humidity are known to significantly affect the performance of the material. Although the problem is, at least in the asphalt field, considered mostly from the binder point of view, this article aims to investigate the effect of aggregate properties on road performance in cold climatic conditions. Two different climatic areas will be taken into account: Norway and Spain. While both these countries are listed among the main European producers of aggregates, they represent significantly different climatic regions. While Norwegian weather is characterized by humid cold winters and relatively mild summers, Spain has temperate climate with cold regions in mountainous and internal areas. Both countries have been significantly affected by climate change with increasing temperature variations and instability. At the same time, similar winter maintenance measures, including the use of a considerable amount of solid and liquid chemicals to avoid ice formation (e.g. NaCl) and/or to provide better friction, are carried out in both countries. The use of crushed aggregates in both the frost protection layer and asphalt layers is the main topic for our investigations. In existing standards there is large focus on mechanical properties of aggregates and their grain size distribution, but little focus on mineralogy and and its behaviour at low temperatures. With the purpose to study the effect of winter climatic conditions and the use of salts during winter maintenance, different samples of aggregates and asphalt mixtures used in Norwegian and Spanish roads were subjected to freeze-thaw cycles in the laboratory. To evaluate the impact of these cycles to the mechanical properties of the selected materials, Los Angeles test on aggregates and Cantabro test on asphalt have been done and compared with results from the same aggregates and asphalt mixtures but untreated in the laboratory. The results obtained were related to the petrographical analysis of the rocks that compose the aggregates in order to estimate the influence of the rock properties (mineralogy, texture and structure) in road materials behavior, especially when they are exposed to winter conditions.

Predicting responses to climate change requires all life-history stages.

PubMed

Zeigler, Sara

2013-01-01

In Focus: Radchuk, V., Turlure, C. & Schtickzelle, N. (2013) Each life stage matters: the importance of assessing response to climate change over the complete life cycle in butterflies. Journal of Animal Ecology, 82, 275-285. Population-level responses to climate change depend on many factors, including unexpected interactions among life history attributes; however, few studies examine climate change impacts over complete life cycles of focal species. Radchuk, Turlure & Schtickzelle () used experimental and modelling approaches to predict population dynamics for the bog fritillary butterfly under warming scenarios. Although they found that warming improved fertility and survival of all stages with one exception, populations were predicted to decline because overwintering larvae, whose survival declined with warming, were disproportionately important contributors to population growth. This underscores the importance of considering all life history stages in analyses of climate change's effects on population dynamics. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Key ecological responses to nitrogen are altered by climate ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Here we review the effects of nitrogen and climate (e.g. temperature and precipitation) on four aspects of ecosystem structure and function including hydrologic-coupled nitrogen cycling, carbon cycling, acidification and biodiversity. Ecosystems are simultaneously exposed to multiple stressors; two dominant drivers threatening ecosystems are anthropogenic nitrogen loading and climate change. Evaluating the cumulative effects of these stressors provides a holistic view of ecosystem vulnerability, which would better inform policy decisions aimed to protect the sustainability of ecosystems. Our current knowledge of the cumulative effects of these stressors is growing, but limited. The goal of this paper is to synthesize the state of scientific knowledge on how ecosystems are affected by the interactions of meteorlogic/climatic factors (e.g., temperature and precipitation) and nitrogen addition. Understanding the interactions of meteorlogic/climatic factors and nitrogen will help to inform how current and projected variability may affect ecosystem response.

Land-surface influences on weather and climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baer, F.; Mintz, Y.

1984-01-01

Land-surface influences on weather and climate are reviewed. The interrelationship of vegetation, evapotranspiration, atmospheric circulation, and climate is discussed. Global precipitation, soil moisture, the seasonal water cycle, heat transfer, and atmospheric temperature are among the parameters considered in the context of a general biosphere model.

Non-linear responses of glaciated prairie wetlands to climate warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, W. Carter; Werner, Brett; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

2016-01-01

The response of ecosystems to climate warming is likely to include threshold events when small changes in key environmental drivers produce large changes in an ecosystem. Wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) are especially sensitive to climate variability, yet the possibility that functional changes may occur more rapidly with warming than expected has not been examined or modeled. The productivity and biodiversity of these wetlands are strongly controlled by the speed and completeness of a vegetation cover cycle driven by the wet and dry extremes of climate. Two thresholds involving duration and depth of standing water must be exceeded every few decades or so to complete the cycle and to produce highly functional wetlands. Model experiments at 19 weather stations employing incremental warming scenarios determined that wetland function across most of the PPR would be diminished beyond a climate warming of about 1.5–2.0 °C, a critical temperature threshold range identified in other climate change studies.

Experimental and observational studies find contrasting responses of soil nutrients to climate change.

PubMed

Yuan, Z Y; Jiao, F; Shi, X R; Sardans, Jordi; Maestre, Fernando T; Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Reich, Peter B; Peñuelas, Josep

2017-06-01

Manipulative experiments and observations along environmental gradients, the two most common approaches to evaluate the impacts of climate change on nutrient cycling, are generally assumed to produce similar results, but this assumption has rarely been tested. We did so by conducting a meta-analysis and found that soil nutrients responded differentially to drivers of climate change depending on the approach considered. Soil carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus concentrations generally decreased with water addition in manipulative experiments but increased with annual precipitation along environmental gradients. Different patterns were also observed between warming experiments and temperature gradients. Our findings provide evidence of inconsistent results and suggest that manipulative experiments may be better predictors of the causal impacts of short-term (months to years) climate change on soil nutrients but environmental gradients may provide better information for long-term correlations (centuries to millennia) between these nutrients and climatic features. Ecosystem models should consequently incorporate both experimental and observational data to properly assess the impacts of climate change on nutrient cycling.

Geophysical, archaeological and historical evidence support a solar-output model for climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, C.A.; Hsu, K.J.

2000-01-01

Although the processes of climate change are not completely understood, an important causal candidate is variation in total solar output. Reported cycles in various climate-proxy data show a tendency to emulate a fundamental harmonic sequence of a basic solar-cycle length (11 years) multiplied by 2(N) (where N equals a positive or negative integer). A simple additive model for total solar-output variations was developed by superimposing a progression of fundamental harmonic cycles with slightly increasing amplitudes. The timeline of the model was calibrated to the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary at 9,000 years before present. The calibrated model was compared with geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence of warm or cold climates during the Holocene. The evidence of periods of several centuries of cooler climates worldwide called 'little ice ages,' similar to the period anno Domini (A.D.) 1280-1860 and reoccurring approximately every 1,300 years, corresponds well with fluctuations in modeled solar output. A more detailed examination of the climate sensitive history of the last 1,000 years further supports the model. Extrapolation of the model into the future suggests a gradual cooling during the next few centuries with intermittent minor warmups and a return to near little-ice-age conditions within the next 500 years. This cool period then may be followed approximately 1,500 years from now by a return to altithermal conditions similar to the previous Holocene Maximum.

Climate, pCO2 and terrestrial carbon cycle linkages during late Palaeozoic glacial-interglacial cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montañez, Isabel P.; McElwain, Jennifer C.; Poulsen, Christopher J.; White, Joseph D.; Dimichele, William A.; Wilson, Jonathan P.; Griggs, Galen; Hren, Michael T.

2016-11-01

Earth's last icehouse, 300 million years ago, is considered the longest-lived and most acute of the past half-billion years, characterized by expansive continental ice sheets and possibly tropical low-elevation glaciation. This atypical climate has long been attributed to anomalous radiative forcing promoted by a 3% lower incident solar luminosity and sustained low atmospheric pCO2 (<=300 ppm). Climate models, however, indicate a CO2 sensitivity of ice-sheet distribution and sea-level response that questions this long-standing climate paradigm by revealing major discrepancy between hypothesized ice distribution, pCO2, and geologic records of glacioeustasy. Here we present a high-resolution record of atmospheric pCO2 for 16 million years of the late Palaeozoic, developed using soil carbonate-based and fossil leaf-based proxies, that resolves the climate conundrum. Palaeo-fluctuations on the 105-yr scale occur within the CO2 range predicted for anthropogenic change and co-vary with substantial change in sea level and ice volume. We further document coincidence between pCO2 changes and repeated restructuring of Euramerican tropical forests that, in conjunction with modelled vegetation shifts, indicate a more dynamic carbon sequestration history than previously considered and a major role for terrestrial vegetation-CO2 feedbacks in driving eccentricity-scale climate cycles of the late Palaeozoic icehouse.

Development of a system emulating the global carbon cycle in Earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tachiiri, K.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Annan, J. D.; Oka, A.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Kawamiya, M.

2010-08-01

Recent studies have indicated that the uncertainty in the global carbon cycle may have a significant impact on the climate. Since state of the art models are too computationally expensive for it to be possible to explore their parametric uncertainty in anything approaching a comprehensive fashion, we have developed a simplified system for investigating this problem. By combining the strong points of general circulation models (GCMs), which contain detailed and complex processes, and Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs), which are quick and capable of large ensembles, we have developed a loosely coupled model (LCM) which can represent the outputs of a GCM-based Earth system model, using much smaller computational resources. We address the problem of relatively poor representation of precipitation within our EMIC, which prevents us from directly coupling it to a vegetation model, by coupling it to a precomputed transient simulation using a full GCM. The LCM consists of three components: an EMIC (MIROC-lite) which consists of a 2-D energy balance atmosphere coupled to a low resolution 3-D GCM ocean (COCO) including an ocean carbon cycle (an NPZD-type marine ecosystem model); a state of the art vegetation model (Sim-CYCLE); and a database of daily temperature, precipitation, and other necessary climatic fields to drive Sim-CYCLE from a precomputed transient simulation from a state of the art AOGCM. The transient warming of the climate system is calculated from MIROC-lite, with the global temperature anomaly used to select the most appropriate annual climatic field from the pre-computed AOGCM simulation which, in this case, is a 1% pa increasing CO2 concentration scenario. By adjusting the effective climate sensitivity (equivalent to the equilibrium climate sensitivity for an energy balance model) of MIROC-lite, the transient warming of the LCM could be adjusted to closely follow the low sensitivity (with an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 4.0 K) version of MIROC3.2. By tuning of the physical and biogeochemical parameters it was possible to reasonably reproduce the bulk physical and biogeochemical properties of previously published CO2 stabilisation scenarios for that model. As an example of an application of the LCM, the behavior of the high sensitivity version of MIROC3.2 (with a 6.3 K equilibrium climate sensitivity) is also demonstrated. Given the highly adjustable nature of the model, we believe that the LCM should be a very useful tool for studying uncertainty in global climate change, and we have named the model, JUMP-LCM, after the name of our research group (Japan Uncertainty Modelling Project).

Anticipated Improvements in Precipitation Physics and Understanding of Water Cycle from GPM Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.

2003-01-01

The GPM mission is currently planned for start in the late-2007 to early-2008 time frame. Its main scientific goal is to help answer pressing scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycles. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood/draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like core satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe -- continuously. The constellation s orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. GPM is organized internationally, involving existing, pending, projected, and under-study partnerships which will link NASA and NOAA in the US, NASDA in Japan, ESA in Europe, ISRO in India, CNES in France, and possibly AS1 in Italy, KARI in South Korea, CSA in Canada, and AEB in Brazil. Additionally, the program is actively pursuing agreements with other international collaborators and domestic scientific agencies and institutions, as well as participation by individual scientists from academia, government, and the private sector to fulfill mission goals and to pave the way for what is expected to become an internationally-organized operational global precipitation observing system. Notably, the broad societal applications of GPM are reflected in the United Nation s identification of GPM as a foremost candidate for its Peaceful Uses of Space Program. An overview of the GPM mission design is given, followed by an explanation of its scientific agenda as an outgrowth of making improvements in rain retrieval accuracy, microphysics dexterity, sampling frequency, and global coverage. All of these improvements offer new means to observe variability in precipitation and water cycle fluxes and to achieve improved predictability of weather, climate, and hydrometeorology. Specifically, the scientific agenda of GPM has been designed to leverage the measurement improvements to improve prognostic model performance, particularly quantitative precipitation forecasting and its linked phenomena at short, intermediate, and extended time scales. The talk addresses how GPM measurements will enable better detection of accelerations and decelerations in regional and global water cycle processes and their relationship to climate variability, better impacts of precipitation data assimilation on numerical weather prediction and global climate reanalysis, and better performance from basin scale hydrometeorological models for short and long term flood-drought forecasting and seasonal fresh water resource assessment. These improvements become possible by using more accurate, more microphysically-centric, more frequent, and fully global precipitation observations to achieve better water budget closure and to provide more realistic forcing and assessment of prediction models.

Thermal fatigue life evaluation of SnAgCu solder joints in a multi-chip power module

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbagallo, C.; Malgioglio, G. L.; Petrone, G.; Cammarata, G.

2017-05-01

For power devices, the reliability of thermal fatigue induced by thermal cycling has been prioritized as an important concern. The main target of this work is to apply a numerical procedure to assess the fatigue life for lead-free solder joints, that represent, in general, the weakest part of the electronic modules. Starting from a real multi-chip power module, FE-based models were built-up by considering different conditions in model implementation in order to simulate, from one hand, the worst working condition for the module and, from another one, the module standing into a climatic test room performing thermal cycles. Simulations were carried-out both in steady and transient conditions in order to estimate the module thermal maps, the stress-strain distributions, the effective plastic strain distributions and finally to assess the number of cycles to failure of the constitutive solder layers.

GFO Altimeter Engineering Assessment Report. Update: The First 43 Cycles Since Acceptance, November 29, 2000 to November 30, 2002, Version 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hancock, D. W., III; Hayne, G. S.; Lockwood, D. W.; Brooks, R. L.

2003-01-01

The U.S. Navy's Geosat Follow-On (GFO) Mission, launched on February 20, 1998, is one of a series of altimetric satellites which include Seasat, Geosat, ERS-1, and TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P). The purpose of this report is to document the GFO altimeter performance determined from the analyses and results performed by NASA's GSFC and Wallops altimeter, calibration team. It is the third of an anticipated series of NASA's GSFC and Wallops GFO performance documents, each of which will update assessment results. This report covers the performance from instrument acceptance by the Navy on November 29, 2000, to the end of Cycle 42 on November 30, 2002. Data derived from GFO will lead to improvements in the knowledge of ocean circulation, ice sheet topography, and climate change. In order to capture the maximum amount of information from the GFO data, accurate altimeter calibrations are required for the civilian data set which NOAA will produce. Wallops Flight Facility has provided similar products for the Geosat and T/P missions and is doing the same for GFO.

GFO Altimeter Engineering Assessment Report. Update: The First 65 Cycles Since Acceptance, November 29, 2000 to December 9, 2003, Version 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hancock, D. W., III; Hayne, G. S.; Lockwood, D. W.; Brooks, R. L.

2004-01-01

The U.S. Navy's Geosat Follow-On (GFO) Mission, launched February 10, 1998, is one of a series of altimetric satellites which include Seasat, Geosat, ERS-1, and TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P). The purpose of this report is to document the GFO altimeter performance determined from the analyses and results performed by NASA's GSFC and Wallops altimeter calibration team. It is the fourth of an anticipated series of NASA's GSFC and Wallops GFO performance documents, each of which will update assessment results. This report covers the performance from instrument acceptance by the Navy on November 29, 2000, to the end of Cycle 65 on December 9, 2003. Data derived from GFO will lead to improvements in the knowledge of ocean circulation, ice sheet topography, and climate change. In order to capture the maximum amount of information from the GFO data, accurate altimeter calibrations are required for the civilian data set which NOAA will produce. Wallops Flight Facility has provided similar products for the Geosat and T/P missions and is doing the same for GFO.

In Search of Sun-Climate Connection Using Solar Irradiance Measurements and Climate Records

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiang, Richard K.; Kyle, H. Lee

2000-01-01

The Earth's temperature has risen approximately 0.5 degree-C in the last 150 years. Because the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased nearly 30% since the industrial revolution, a common conjecture, supported by various climate models, is that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have contributed to global warming. Another probable factor for the warming is the natural variation of solar irradiance. Although the variation is as small as 0.1 % it is hypothesized that it contributes to part of the temperature rise. Warmer or cooler ocean temperature at one part of the Globe may manifest as abnormally wet or dry weather patterns some months or years later at another part of the globe. Furthermore, the lower atmosphere can be affected through its coupling with the stratosphere, after the stratospheric ozone absorbs the ultraviolet portion of the solar irradiance. In this paper, we use wavelet transforms based on Morlet wavelet to analyze the time-frequency properties in several datasets, including the Radiation Budget measurements, the long-term total solar irradiance time series, the long-term temperature at two locations for the North and the South Hemisphere. The main solar cycle, approximately 11 years, are identified in the long-term total solar irradiance time series. The wavelet transform of the temperature datasets show annual cycle but not the solar cycle. Some correlation is seen between the length of the solar cycle extracted from the wavelet transform and the North Hemisphere temperature time series. The absence of the 11-year cycle in a time series does not necessarily imply that the geophysical parameter is not affected by the solar cycle; rather it simply reflects the complex nature of the Earth's response to climate forcings.

Projected land photosynthesis constrained by changes in the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2.

PubMed

Wenzel, Sabrina; Cox, Peter M; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre

2016-10-27

Uncertainties in the response of vegetation to rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations contribute to the large spread in projections of future climate change. Climate-carbon cycle models generally agree that elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations will enhance terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP). However, the magnitude of this CO 2 fertilization effect varies from a 20 per cent to a 60 per cent increase in GPP for a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations in model studies. Here we demonstrate emergent constraints on large-scale CO 2 fertilization using observed changes in the amplitude of the atmospheric CO 2 seasonal cycle that are thought to be the result of increasing terrestrial GPP. Our comparison of atmospheric CO 2 measurements from Point Barrow in Alaska and Cape Kumukahi in Hawaii with historical simulations of the latest climate-carbon cycle models demonstrates that the increase in the amplitude of the CO 2 seasonal cycle at both measurement sites is consistent with increasing annual mean GPP, driven in part by climate warming, but with differences in CO 2 fertilization controlling the spread among the model trends. As a result, the relationship between the amplitude of the CO 2 seasonal cycle and the magnitude of CO 2 fertilization of GPP is almost linear across the entire ensemble of models. When combined with the observed trends in the seasonal CO 2 amplitude, these relationships lead to consistent emergent constraints on the CO 2 fertilization of GPP. Overall, we estimate a GPP increase of 37 ± 9 per cent for high-latitude ecosystems and 32 ± 9 per cent for extratropical ecosystems under a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations on the basis of the Point Barrow and Cape Kumukahi records, respectively.

A unified nonlinear stochastic time series analysis for climate science

PubMed Central

Moon, Woosok; Wettlaufer, John S.

2017-01-01

Earth’s orbit and axial tilt imprint a strong seasonal cycle on climatological data. Climate variability is typically viewed in terms of fluctuations in the seasonal cycle induced by higher frequency processes. We can interpret this as a competition between the orbitally enforced monthly stability and the fluctuations/noise induced by weather. Here we introduce a new time-series method that determines these contributions from monthly-averaged data. We find that the spatio-temporal distribution of the monthly stability and the magnitude of the noise reveal key fingerprints of several important climate phenomena, including the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover, the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Nio and the Indian Dipole Mode. In analogy with the classical destabilising influence of the ice-albedo feedback on summertime sea ice, we find that during some time interval of the season a destabilising process operates in all of these climate phenomena. The interaction between the destabilisation and the accumulation of noise, which we term the memory effect, underlies phase locking to the seasonal cycle and the statistical nature of seasonal predictability. PMID:28287128

A unified nonlinear stochastic time series analysis for climate science.

PubMed

Moon, Woosok; Wettlaufer, John S

2017-03-13

Earth's orbit and axial tilt imprint a strong seasonal cycle on climatological data. Climate variability is typically viewed in terms of fluctuations in the seasonal cycle induced by higher frequency processes. We can interpret this as a competition between the orbitally enforced monthly stability and the fluctuations/noise induced by weather. Here we introduce a new time-series method that determines these contributions from monthly-averaged data. We find that the spatio-temporal distribution of the monthly stability and the magnitude of the noise reveal key fingerprints of several important climate phenomena, including the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover, the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Nio and the Indian Dipole Mode. In analogy with the classical destabilising influence of the ice-albedo feedback on summertime sea ice, we find that during some time interval of the season a destabilising process operates in all of these climate phenomena. The interaction between the destabilisation and the accumulation of noise, which we term the memory effect, underlies phase locking to the seasonal cycle and the statistical nature of seasonal predictability.

A unified nonlinear stochastic time series analysis for climate science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Woosok; Wettlaufer, John

2017-04-01

Earth's orbit and axial tilt imprint a strong seasonal cycle on climatological data. Climate variability is typically viewed in terms of fluctuations in the seasonal cycle induced by higher frequency processes. We can interpret this as a competition between the orbitally enforced monthly stability and the fluctuations/noise induced by weather. Here we introduce a new time-series method that determines these contributions from monthly-averaged data. We find that the spatio-temporal distribution of the monthly stability and the magnitude of the noise reveal key fingerprints of several important climate phenomena, including the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Niño and the Indian Dipole Mode. In analogy with the classical destabilising influence of the ice-albedo feedback on summertime sea ice, we find that during some period of the season a destabilising process operates in all of these climate phenomena. The interaction between the destabilisation and the accumulation of noise, which we term the memory effect, underlies phase locking to the seasonal cycle and the statistical nature of seasonal predictability.

Global Warming in Geologic Time

ScienceCinema

Archer, David

2018-01-01

The notion is pervasive in the climate science community and in the public at large that the climate impacts of fossil fuel CO2 release will only persist for a few centuries. This conclusion has no basis in theory or models of the atmosphere / ocean carbon cycle, which we review here. The largest fraction of the CO2 recovery will take place on time scales of centuries, as CO2 invades the ocean, but a significant fraction of the fossil fuel CO2, ranging in published models in the literature from 20-60%, remains airborne for a thousand years or longer. Ultimate recovery takes place on time scales of hundreds of thousands of years, a geologic longevity typically associated in public perceptions with nuclear waste. The glacial / interglacial climate cycles demonstrate that ice sheets and sea level respond dramatically to millennial-timescale changes in climate forcing. There are also potential positive feedbacks in the carbon cycle, including methane hydrates in the ocean, and peat frozen in permafrost, that are most sensitive to the long tail of the fossil fuel CO2 in the atmosphere.

Climate warming and the carbon cycle in the permafrost zone of the former Soviet Union

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kolchugina, T.P.; Vinson, T.S.

1993-01-01

The continuous permafrost zone of the former Soviet Union occupies 5% of the land surface area of the earth and stores a significant amount of carbon. Climate warming could disrupt the balance between carbon (C) accumulation and decomposition processes within the permafrost zone. Increased temperatures may accelerate the rate of organic matter decomposition. At the same time, the productivity of vegetation may increase in response to warming. To assess the future carbon cycle within the permafrost zone under a climate-warming scenario, it is necessary to quantify present carbon pools and fluxes. The present carbon cycle was assessed on the basismore » of an ecosystem/ecoregion approach. Under the present climate, the phytomass carbon pool was estimated at 17.0 Giga tons. The mortmass (coarse woody debris) carbon pool was estimated at 16.1 Giga tons. The soil carbon pool, including peatlands, was 139.4 Giga tons. The present rate of carbon turnover was 1.6 Giga tons/yr. (Copyright (c) 1993 by John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.)« less

Application of time-lapse ERT to Characterize Soil-Water-Disease Interactions of Citrus Orchard - Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peddinti, S. R.; Kbvn, D. P.; Ranjan, S.; Suradhaniwar, S.; J, P. A.; R M, G.

2015-12-01

Vidarbha region in Maharashtra, India (home for mandarin Orange) experience severe climatic uncertainties resulting in crop failure. Phytopthora are the soil-borne fungal species that accumulate in the presence of moisture, and attack the root / trunk system of Orange trees at any stage. A scientific understanding of soil-moisture-disease relations within the active root zone under different climatic, irrigation, and crop cycle conditions can help in practicing management activities for improved crop yield. In this study, we developed a protocol for performing 3-D time-lapse electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) at micro scale resolution to monitor the changes in resistivity distribution within the root zone of Orange trees. A total of 40 electrodes, forming a grid of 3.5 m x 2 m around each Orange tree were used in ERT survey with gradient and Wenner configurations. A laboratory test on un-disturbed soil samples of the region was performed to plot the variation of electrical conductivity with saturation. Curve fitting techniques were applied to get the modified Archie's model parameters. The calibrated model was further applied to generate the 3-D soil moisture profiles of the study area. The point estimates of soil moisture were validated using TDR probe measurements at 3 different depths (10, 20, and 40 cm) near to the root zone. In order to understand the effect of soil-water relations on plant-disease relations, we performed ERT analysis at two locations, one at healthy and other at Phytopthora affected Orange tree during the crop cycle, under dry and irrigated conditions. The degree to which an Orange tree is affected by Phytopthora under each condition is evaluated using 'grading scale' approach following visual inspection of the canopy features. Spatial-temporal distribution of moisture profiles is co-related with grading scales to comment on the effect of climatic and irrigation scenarios on the degree and intensity of crop disease caused by Phytopthora.

The Climate Response to the Astronomical Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crucifix, M.; Loutre, M. F.; Berger, A.

2006-08-01

Links between climate and Earth’s orbit have been proposed for about 160 years. Two decisive advances towards an astronomical theory of palæoclimates were Milankovitch’s theory of insolation (1941) and independent findings, in 1976, of a double precession frequency peak in marine sediment data and from celestial mechanics calculations. The present chapter reviews three essential elements of any astronomical theory of climate: (1) to calculate the orbital elements, (2) to infer insolation changes from climatic precession, obliquity and eccentricity, and (3) to estimate the impact of these variations on climate. The Louvain-la-Neuve climate-ice sheet model has been an important instrument for confirming the relevance of Milankovitch’s theory, but it also evidences the critical role played by greenhouse gases during periods of low eccentricity. It is recognised today that climatic interactions at the global scale were involved in the processes of glacial inception and deglaciation. Three examples are given, related to the responses of the carbon cycle, hydrological cycle, and the terrestrial biosphere, respectively. The chapter concludes on an outlook on future research directions on this topic.

Hydrological changes in the tropics: an Holocene perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braconnot, Pascale

2015-04-01

Past climates offer a large set of natural experiences that can be used to better understand the relative role of different climate feedbacks arising from changes in the Earth's global energetics, Earth's hydrological cycle or from the coupling between climate and biogeochemical cycles. In addition, the numerous climate reconstructions from different and independent ice, marine and terrestrial climate archives allow to test how climate models reproduce past changes and to assess their credibility when used for future climate projections. The presentation will review some of the mechanisms affecting the long term trend in the location of the intertropical convergence zone and the Afro-Asian monsoon. Using simulations of the PMIP project, as well as sensitivity experiments with the IPSL model, I'll discuss the role of monsoon changes in the global Earth's energetics and the different feedbacks from ocean and land-surface. The presentation will contrast the conditions in the Early, the mid and late Holocene and show how robust features of monsoon changes can be used to better assess future changes in regions where model results are uncertain, such as West Africa.

Retention performance of green roofs in representative climates worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viola, F.; Hellies, M.; Deidda, R.

2017-10-01

The ongoing process of global urbanization contributes to an increase in stormwater runoff from impervious surfaces, threatening also water quality. Green roofs have been proved to be innovative stormwater management measures to partially restore natural states, enhancing interception, infiltration and evapotranspiration fluxes. The amount of water that is retained within green roofs depends not only on their depth, but also on the climate, which drives the stochastic soil moisture dynamic. In this context, a simple tool for assessing performance of green roofs worldwide in terms of retained water is still missing and highly desirable for practical assessments. The aim of this work is to explore retention performance of green roofs as a function of their depth and in different climate regimes. Two soil depths are investigated, one representing the intensive configuration and another representing the extensive one. The role of the climate in driving water retention has been represented by rainfall and potential evapotranspiration dynamics. A simple conceptual weather generator has been implemented and used for stochastic simulation of daily rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. Stochastic forcing is used as an input of a simple conceptual hydrological model for estimating long-term water partitioning between rainfall, runoff and actual evapotranspiration. Coupling the stochastic weather generator with the conceptual hydrological model, we assessed the amount of rainfall diverted into evapotranspiration for different combinations of annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration in five representative climatic regimes. Results quantified the capabilities of green roofs in retaining rainfall and consequently in reducing discharges into sewer systems at an annual time scale. The role of substrate depth has been recognized to be crucial in determining green roofs retention performance, which in general increase from extensive to intensive settings. Looking at the role of climatic conditions, namely annual rainfall, potential evapotranspiration and their seasonality cycles, we found that they drive green roofs retention performance, which are the maxima when rainfall and temperature are in phase. Finally, we provide design charts for a first approximation of possible hydrological benefits deriving from the implementation of intensive or extensive green roofs in different world areas. As an example, 25 big cities have been indicated as benchmark case studies.

Comparison of methods for extracting annual cycle with changing amplitude in climate science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Q.; Fu, Z.

2017-12-01

Changes of annual cycle gains a growing concern recently. The basic hypothesis regards annual cycle as constant. Climatology mean within a time period is usually used to depict the annual cycle. Obviously this hypothesis contradicts with the fact that annual cycle is changing every year. For the lack of a unified definition about annual cycle, the approaches adopted in extracting annual cycle are various and may lead to different results. The precision and validity of these methods need to be examined. In this work we numerical experiments with known monofrequent annual cycle are set to evaluate five popular extracting methods: fitting sinusoids, complex demodulation, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), Nonlinear Mode Decomposition (NMD) and Seasonal trend decomposition procedure based on loess (STL). Three different types of changing amplitude will be generated: steady, linear increasing and nonlinearly varying. Comparing the annual cycle extracted by these methods with the generated annual cycle, we find that (1) NMD performs best in depicting annual cycle itself and its amplitude change, (2) fitting sinusoids, complex demodulation and EEMD methods are more sensitive to long-term memory(LTM) of generated time series thus lead to overfitting annual cycle and too noisy amplitude, oppositely the result of STL underestimate the amplitude variation (3)all of them can present the amplitude trend correctly in long-time scale but the errors on account of noise and LTM are common in some methods over short time scales.

How sensitive are temperate tadpoles to climate change? The use of thermal physiology and niche model tools to assess vulnerability.

PubMed

Perotti, María Gabriela; Bonino, Marcelo Fabián; Ferraro, Daiana; Cruz, Félix Benjamín

2018-04-01

Ectotherms are vulnerable to climate change, given their dependence on temperature, and amphibians are particularly interesting because of their complex life cycle. Tadpoles may regulate their body temperature by using suitable thermal microhabitats. Thus, their physiological responses are the result of adjustment to the local thermal limits experienced in their ponds. We studied three anuran tadpole species present in Argentina and Chile: Pleurodema thaul and Pleurodema bufoninum that are seasonal and have broad geographic ranges, and Batrachyla taeniata, a geographically restricted species with overwintering tadpoles. Species with restricted distribution are more susceptible to climate change than species with broader distribution that may cope with potential climatic changes in the environments in which they occur. We aim to test whether these species can buffer the potential effects of climate warming. We used ecological niche models and the outcomes of their thermal attributes (critical thermal limits, optimal temperature, and locomotor performance breadth) as empirical evidence of their capacity. We found that Pleurodema species show broader performance curves, related to their occurrence, while the geographically restricted B. taeniata shows a narrower thermal breadth, but is faster in warmer conditions. The modeled distributions and empirical physiological results suggest no severe threats for these three anurans. However, the risk level is increasing and a retraction of their distribution range might be possible for Pleurodema species, and some local population extinctions may happen, particularly for the narrowly distributed B. taeniata. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

A wet-geology and cold-climate Mars model: Punctuation of a slow dynamic approach to equilibrium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kargel, J. S.

1993-01-01

It was suggested that Mars may have possessed a relatively warm humid climate and a vigorous hydrological cycle involving meteoric precipitation, oceans, and continental ice sheets. Baker hypothesized that these geologically active conditions may have been repeated several times; each of these dynamic epochs was followed by a collapse of the climate and hydrologic cycle of Mars into essentially current conditions, completing what is termed a 'Baker cycle'. The purpose is to present an endmember possibility that Martian glacial landscapes, including some that were previously considered to have formed under warm climatic conditions, might be explained by processes compatible with an extremely cold surface. Two aspects of hypothesized Martian glacial terrains were cited as favoring a warm climate during Baker cycles: (1) the formation of some landscapes, including possible eskers, tunnel channels, drumlins, and outwash plains, appears to have required liquid water, and (2) a liquid-surfaced ocean was probably necessary to feed the glaciers. The requirement for liquid water, if these features were correctly interpreted, is difficult to avoid; it is entirely possible that a comparatively warm climate was involved, but it is not clear that formation of landforms by wet-based glaciers actually requires a warm climate. Even less certain is the supposed requirement for liquid oceans. Formation of glaciers only requires a source of water or ice to supply an amount of precipitation that exceeds losses due to melting and sublimation. At Martian temperatures precipitation is very low, but so are melting and sublimation, so a large body of ice that is unstable with respect to sublimation may take the role of Earth's oceans in feeding the glaciers. Recent models suggest that even current Martian polar caps, long thought to be static bodies of ice and dust, might actually be slow-moving, cryogenic continental glaciers. Is it possible that subglacial processes beneath cryogenic (but wetbased) ice sheets formed the hypothesized Martian glacial landscapes?

New Insights into Early Cenozoic Carbon Cycling: Continental Ecosystem Response to Orbital Forcing in the Lacustrine Green River Formation (Western US) at the Conclusion of the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musher, D.; Grogan, D. S.; Whiteside, J. H.

2010-12-01

A series of extreme warming events, known as hyperthermals, interrupted the equable climate conditions predominant during the early Cenozoic hothouse. In marine sediments, these hyperthermals are marked by prominent negative carbon isotope excursions, indicative of dramatic and abrupt changes in the global exogenic carbon pool, as well as carbonate dissolution horizons and benthic foraminiferal extinctions. Hyperthermals are well documented in the marine record, but it is less clear how patterns of global carbon cycling manifested in early Cenozoic terrestrial environments, although some studies have documented amplified excursions relative to that of the marine record. The lacustrine Eocene Green River Formation of Utah is an excellent system for studying the continental environmental context of global carbon cycle dynamics during this time. These sediments span a ~15 Myr time interval, including the entire Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO) and the transition to the long-term Cenozoic cooling trend. To investigate the relationship between the continental carbon record and global carbon cycling, climate, and orbital forcing, we studied a detailed section from the P-4 core drilled in the Uinta Basin bracketing the famous “Mahogany Bed”, a petroliferous layer of oil shale recording a period of enhanced productivity and carbon burial near the end of the EECO. Our carbon isotope measurements of high molecular weight n-alkanes across this boundary suggest a stable global carbon cycle and climate regime persisting ~400 kyr at the terminal EECO. Frequency spectra of published oil yield and gamma ray data from this section reveal concentrated power at Milankovitch frequencies, permitting the assembly of a robust age model. In concert with radioisotopic age control, our orbital chronology allows for comparison of our carbon cycle record to early Eocene astronomical solutions. We show that the Mahogany Bed corresponds to strong minima in short and long eccentricity and a node in obliquity. We hypothesize that sustained low amplitude variability in obliquity combined with low eccentricity favored further attenuation of mild seasonal variability in an already equable continental environmental regime. These climate conditions are consistent with a highly productive lake scenario and maxima in covarying depth rank, oil yield, and total organic carbon coincident with the Mahogany Bed. Current thought posits that certain orbital configurations, including minima in short and long eccentricity, modulate the timing, and possibly the severity, of early Eocene hyperthermals identified in oceanic sediments. Our findings show that similar Milankovitch forcing elicited dramatic changes in continental carbon cycling during the early Cenozoic, possibly independently of the marine world and without the hallmark carbon isotope signature characteristic of hyperthermals. This highlights a potential difference in ecosystem sensitivity between the terrestrial and marine realm during hothouse climate regimes, as well as the need to constrain and characterize multiple modes of carbon cycle instability in early Cenozoic continental environments.

Climate change mitigation by recovery of energy from the water cycle: a new challenge for water management.

PubMed

van der Hoek, J P

2012-01-01

Waternet is responsible for drinking water treatment and distribution, wastewater collection and treatment, and surface water management and control (quality and quantity) in and around Amsterdam. Waternet has the ambition to operate climate neutral in 2020. To realise this ambition, measures are required to compensate for the emission of 53,000 ton CO(2)-eq/year. Energy recovery from the water cycle looks very promising. First, calculations reveal that energy recovery from the water cycle in and around Amsterdam may contribute to a total reduction in greenhouse gas emissions up to 148,000 ton CO(2)-eq/year. The challenge for the coming years is to choose combinations of all the possibilities to fulfil the energy demand as much as possible. Only then the use of fossil fuel can be minimized and inevitable greenhouse gas emissions can be compensated, supporting the target to operate climate neutral in 2020.

Recurrent sublethal warming reduces embryonic survival, inhibits juvenile growth, and alters species distribution projections under climate change.

PubMed

Carlo, Michael A; Riddell, Eric A; Levy, Ofir; Sears, Michael W

2018-01-01

The capacity to tolerate climate change often varies across ontogeny in organisms with complex life cycles. Recently developed species distribution models incorporate traits across life stages; however, these life-cycle models primarily evaluate effects of lethal change. Here, we examine impacts of recurrent sublethal warming on development and survival in ecological projections of climate change. We reared lizard embryos in the laboratory under temperature cycles that simulated contemporary conditions and warming scenarios. We also artificially warmed natural nests to mimic laboratory treatments. In both cases, recurrent sublethal warming decreased embryonic survival and hatchling sizes. Incorporating survivorship results into a mechanistic species distribution model reduced annual survival by up to 24% compared to models that did not incorporate sublethal warming. Contrary to models without sublethal effects, our model suggests that modest increases in developmental temperatures influence species ranges due to effects on survivorship. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

The influence of the hydrologic cycle on the extent of sea ice with climatic implications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dean, Ken; Gosink, Joan

1991-01-01

The role was analyzed of the hydrologic cycle on the distribution of sea ice, and its influence on forcings and fluxes between the marine environment and the atmosphere. River discharge plays a significant role in degrading the sea ice before any melting occurs elsewhere along the coast. The influence is considered of river discharge on the albedo, thermal balance, and distribution of sea ice. Quantitative atmospheric-hydrologic models are being developed to describe these processes in the coastal zone. Input for the models will come from satellite images, hydrologic data, and field observations. The resulting analysis provides a basis for the study of the significance of the hydrologic cycle throughout the Arctic Basin and its influence on the regional climate as a result of possible climatic scenarios. The area offshore from the Mackenzie River delta was selected as the study area.

The seasonal CO2 cycle on Mars - An application of an energy balance climate model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, P. B.; North, G. R.

1982-01-01

Energy balance climate models of the Budyko-Sellers variety are applied to the carbon-dioxide cycle on Mars. Recent data available from the Viking mission, in particular the seasonal pressure variations measured by Viking landers, are used to constrain the models. No set of parameters was found for which a one-dimensional model parameterized in terms of ground temperature gave an adequate fit to the observed pressure variations. A modified, two-dimensional model including the effects of dust storms and the polar hood reasonably reproduces the pressure curve, however. The implications of these results for Martian climate changes are discussed.

Life Cycle Assessment of Residential Heating and Cooling Systems in Minnesota A comprehensive analysis on life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and cost-effectiveness of ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems compared to the conventional gas furnace and air conditioner system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Mo

Ground Source Heat Pump (GSHP) technologies for residential heating and cooling are often suggested as an effective means to curb energy consumption, reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and lower homeowners' heating and cooling costs. As such, numerous federal, state and utility-based incentives, most often in the forms of financial incentives, installation rebates, and loan programs, have been made available for these technologies. While GSHP technology for space heating and cooling is well understood, with widespread implementation across the U.S., research specific to the environmental and economic performance of these systems in cold climates, such as Minnesota, is limited. In this study, a comparative environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) is conducted of typical residential HVAC (Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning) systems in Minnesota to investigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for delivering 20 years of residential heating and cooling—maintaining indoor temperatures of 68°F (20°C) and 75°F (24°C) in Minnesota-specific heating and cooling seasons, respectively. Eight residential GSHP design scenarios (i.e. horizontal loop field, vertical loop field, high coefficient of performance, low coefficient of performance, hybrid natural gas heat back-up) and one conventional natural gas furnace and air conditioner system are assessed for GHG and life cycle economic costs. Life cycle GHG emissions were found to range between 1.09 × 105 kg CO2 eq. and 1.86 × 10 5 kg CO2 eq. Six of the eight GSHP technology scenarios had fewer carbon impacts than the conventional system. Only in cases of horizontal low-efficiency GSHP and hybrid, do results suggest increased GHGs. Life cycle costs and present value analyses suggest GSHP technologies can be cost competitive over their 20-year life, but that policy incentives may be required to reduce the high up-front capital costs of GSHPs and relatively long payback periods of more than 20 years. In addition, results suggest that the regional electricity fuel mix and volatile energy prices significantly influence the benefits of employing GSHP technologies in Minnesota from both environmental and economic perspectives. It is worthy noting that with the historically low natural gas price in 2012, the conventional system's energy bill reduction would be large enough to bring its life-cycle cost below those of the GSHPs. As a result, the environmentally favorable GSHP technologies would become economically unfavorable, unless they are additionally subsidized. Improved understanding these effects, along with design and performance characteristics of GSGP technologies specific to Minnesota's cold climate, allows better decision making among homeowners considering these technologies and policy makers providing incentives for alternative energy solutions.

European drought under climate change and an assessment of the uncertainties in projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, R. M. S.; Osborn, T.; Conway, D.; Warren, R.; Hankin, R.

2012-04-01

Extreme weather/climate events have significant environmental and societal impacts, and anthropogenic climate change has and will continue to alter their characteristics (IPCC, 2011). Drought is one of the most damaging natural hazards through its effects on agricultural, hydrological, ecological and socio-economic systems. Climate change is stimulating demand, from public and private sector decision-makers and also other stakeholders, for better understanding of potential future drought patterns which could facilitate disaster risk management. There remain considerable levels of uncertainty in climate change projections, particularly in relation to extreme events. Our incomplete understanding of the behaviour of the climate system has led to the development of various emission scenarios, carbon cycle models and global climate models (GCMs). Uncertainties arise also from the different types and definitions of drought. This study examines climate change-induced changes in European drought characteristics, and illustrates the robustness of these projections by quantifying the effects of using different emission scenarios, carbon cycle models and GCMs. This is achieved by using the multi-institutional modular "Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS)" (Warren et al., 2008), a flexible integrated assessment system for modelling climate change. Simulations generated by the simple climate model MAGICC6.0 are assessed. These include ten C4MIP carbon cycle models and eighteen CMIP3 GCMs under five IPCC SRES emission scenarios, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, and three mitigation scenarios with CO2-equivalent levels stabilising at 550 ppm, 500 ppm and 450 ppm. Using an ensemble of 2160 future precipitation scenarios, we present an analysis on both short (3-month) and long (12-month) meteorological droughts based on the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) for the baseline period (1951-2000) and two future periods of 2001-2050 and 2051-2100. Results indicate, with the exception of high latitude regions, a marked increase in drought condition across Europe especially in the second half of 21st century. Patterns, however, vary substantially depending on the model, emission scenario, region and season. While the variance introduced by choice of carbon cycle model is of minor importance, contribution of emission scenario becomes more important in the second half of the century; nevertheless, GCM uncertainty remains the dominant source throughout the 21st century and across all regions.

JPL's Role in Advancing Earth System Science to Meet the Challenges of Climate and Environmental Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Diane

2012-01-01

Objective 2.1.1: Improve understanding of and improve the predictive capability for changes in the ozone layer, climate forcing, and air quality associated with changes in atmospheric composition. Objective 2.1.2: Enable improved predictive capability for weather and extreme weather events. Objective 2.1.3: Quantify, understand, and predict changes in Earth s ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, including the global carbon cycle, land cover, and biodiversity. Objective 2.1.4: Quantify the key reservoirs and fluxes in the global water cycle and assess water cycle change and water quality. Objective 2.1.5: Improve understanding of the roles of the ocean, atmosphere, land and ice in the climate system and improve predictive capability for its future evolution. Objective 2.1.6: Characterize the dynamics of Earth s surface and interior and form the scientific basis for the assessment and mitigation of natural hazards and response to rare and extreme events. Objective 2.1.7: Enable the broad use of Earth system science observations and results in decision-making activities for societal benefits.

A hybrid-domain approach for modeling climate data time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Qiuzi H.; Wang, Xiaolan L.; Wong, Augustine

2011-09-01

In order to model climate data time series that often contain periodic variations, trends, and sudden changes in mean (mean shifts, mostly artificial), this study proposes a hybrid-domain (HD) algorithm, which incorporates a time domain test and a newly developed frequency domain test through an iterative procedure that is analogue to the well known backfitting algorithm. A two-phase competition procedure is developed to address the confounding issue between modeling periodic variations and mean shifts. A variety of distinctive features of climate data time series, including trends, periodic variations, mean shifts, and a dependent noise structure, can be modeled in tandem using the HD algorithm. This is particularly important for homogenization of climate data from a low density observing network in which reference series are not available to help preserve climatic trends and long-term periodic variations, preventing them from being mistaken as artificial shifts. The HD algorithm is also powerful in estimating trend and periodicity in a homogeneous data time series (i.e., in the absence of any mean shift). The performance of the HD algorithm (in terms of false alarm rate and hit rate in detecting shifts/cycles, and estimation accuracy) is assessed via a simulation study. Its power is further illustrated through its application to a few climate data time series.

Estimating Carbon Flux Phenology with Satellite-Derived Land Surface Phenology and Climate Drivers for Different Biomes: A Synthesis of AmeriFlux Observations

PubMed Central

Zhu, Wenquan; Chen, Guangsheng; Jiang, Nan; Liu, Jianhong; Mou, Minjie

2013-01-01

Carbon Flux Phenology (CFP) can affect the interannual variation in Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. In this study, we proposed a methodology to estimate CFP metrics with satellite-derived Land Surface Phenology (LSP) metrics and climate drivers for 4 biomes (i.e., deciduous broadleaf forest, evergreen needleleaf forest, grasslands and croplands), using 159 site-years of NEE and climate data from 32 AmeriFlux sites and MODIS vegetation index time-series data. LSP metrics combined with optimal climate drivers can explain the variability in Start of Carbon Uptake (SCU) by more than 70% and End of Carbon Uptake (ECU) by more than 60%. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the estimations was within 8.5 days for both SCU and ECU. The estimation performance for this methodology was primarily dependent on the optimal combination of the LSP retrieval methods, the explanatory climate drivers, the biome types, and the specific CFP metric. This methodology has a potential for allowing extrapolation of CFP metrics for biomes with a distinct and detectable seasonal cycle over large areas, based on synoptic multi-temporal optical satellite data and climate data. PMID:24386441

Estimating Carbon Flux Phenology with Satellite-Derived Land Surface Phenology and Climate Drivers for Different Biomes: A Synthesis of AmeriFlux Observations

DOE PAGES

Zhu, Wenquan; Chen, Guangsheng; Jiang, Nan; ...

2013-12-27

Carbon Flux Phenology (CFP) can affect the interannual variation in Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. In this paper, we proposed a methodology to estimate CFP metrics with satellite-derived Land Surface Phenology (LSP) metrics and climate drivers for 4 biomes (i.e., deciduous broadleaf forest, evergreen needleleaf forest, grasslands and croplands), using 159 site-years of NEE and climate data from 32 AmeriFlux sites and MODIS vegetation index time-series data. LSP metrics combined with optimal climate drivers can explain the variability in Start of Carbon Uptake (SCU) by more than 70% and End of Carbon Uptakemore » (ECU) by more than 60%. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the estimations was within 8.5 days for both SCU and ECU. The estimation performance for this methodology was primarily dependent on the optimal combination of the LSP retrieval methods, the explanatory climate drivers, the biome types, and the specific CFP metric. In conclusion, this methodology has a potential for allowing extrapolation of CFP metrics for biomes with a distinct and detectable seasonal cycle over large areas, based on synoptic multi-temporal optical satellite data and climate data.« less

Intercomparison of TCCON and MUSICA Water Vapour Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weaver, D.; Strong, K.; Deutscher, N. M.; Schneider, M.; Blumenstock, T.; Robinson, J.; Notholt, J.; Sherlock, V.; Griffith, D. W. T.; Barthlott, S.; García, O. E.; Smale, D.; Palm, M.; Jones, N. B.; Hase, F.; Kivi, R.; Ramos, Y. G.; Yoshimura, K.; Sepúlveda, E.; Gómez-Peláez, Á. J.; Gisi, M.; Kohlhepp, R.; Warneke, T.; Dohe, S.; Wiegele, A.; Christner, E.; Lejeune, B.; Demoulin, P.

2014-12-01

We present an intercomparison between the water vapour products from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and the MUlti-platform remote Sensing of Isotopologues for investigating the Cycle of Atmospheric water (MUSICA), two datasets from ground-based Fourier Transform InfraRed (FTIR) spectrometers with good global representation. Where possible, comparisons to radiosondes are also included. The near-infrared TCCON measurements are optimized to provide precise monitoring of greenhouse gases for carbon cycle studies; however, TCCON's retrievals also produce water vapour products. The mid-infrared MUSICA products result from retrievals optimized to give precise and accurate information about H2O, HDO, and δD. The MUSICA water vapour products have been validated by extensive intercomparisons with H2O and δD in-situ measurements made from ground, radiosonde, and aircraft (Schneider et al. 2012, 2014), as well as by intercomparisons with satellite-based H2O and δD remote sensing measurements (Wiegele et al., 2014). This dataset provides a valuable reference point for other measurements of water vapour. This study is motivated by the limited intercomparisons performed for TCCON water vapour products and limited characterisation of their uncertainties. We compare MUSICA and TCCON products to assess the potential for TCCON measurements to contribute to studies of the water cycle, water vapour's role in climate and use as a tracer for atmospheric dynamics, and to evaluate the performance of climate models. The TCCON and MUSICA products result from measurements taken using the same FTIR instruments, enabling a comparison with constant instrumentation. The retrieval techniques differ, however, in their method and a priori information. We assess the impact of these differences and characterize the comparability of the TCCON and MUSICA datasets.

Predicting carbon dioxide and energy fluxes across global FLUXNET sites with regression algorithms

DOE PAGES

Tramontana, Gianluca; Jung, Martin; Schwalm, Christopher R.; ...

2016-07-29

Spatio-temporal fields of land–atmosphere fluxes derived from data-driven models can complement simulations by process-based land surface models. While a number of strategies for empirical models with eddy-covariance flux data have been applied, a systematic intercomparison of these methods has been missing so far. In this study, we performed a cross-validation experiment for predicting carbon dioxide, latent heat, sensible heat and net radiation fluxes across different ecosystem types with 11 machine learning (ML) methods from four different classes (kernel methods, neural networks, tree methods, and regression splines). We applied two complementary setups: (1) 8-day average fluxes based on remotely sensed data andmore » (2) daily mean fluxes based on meteorological data and a mean seasonal cycle of remotely sensed variables. The patterns of predictions from different ML and experimental setups were highly consistent. There were systematic differences in performance among the fluxes, with the following ascending order: net ecosystem exchange ( R 2 < 0.5), ecosystem respiration ( R 2 > 0.6), gross primary production ( R 2> 0.7), latent heat ( R 2 > 0.7), sensible heat ( R 2 > 0.7), and net radiation ( R 2 > 0.8). The ML methods predicted the across-site variability and the mean seasonal cycle of the observed fluxes very well ( R 2 > 0.7), while the 8-day deviations from the mean seasonal cycle were not well predicted ( R 2 < 0.5). Fluxes were better predicted at forested and temperate climate sites than at sites in extreme climates or less represented by training data (e.g., the tropics). Finally, the evaluated large ensemble of ML-based models will be the basis of new global flux products.« less

Predicting carbon dioxide and energy fluxes across global FLUXNET sites with regression algorithms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tramontana, Gianluca; Jung, Martin; Schwalm, Christopher R.

Spatio-temporal fields of land–atmosphere fluxes derived from data-driven models can complement simulations by process-based land surface models. While a number of strategies for empirical models with eddy-covariance flux data have been applied, a systematic intercomparison of these methods has been missing so far. In this study, we performed a cross-validation experiment for predicting carbon dioxide, latent heat, sensible heat and net radiation fluxes across different ecosystem types with 11 machine learning (ML) methods from four different classes (kernel methods, neural networks, tree methods, and regression splines). We applied two complementary setups: (1) 8-day average fluxes based on remotely sensed data andmore » (2) daily mean fluxes based on meteorological data and a mean seasonal cycle of remotely sensed variables. The patterns of predictions from different ML and experimental setups were highly consistent. There were systematic differences in performance among the fluxes, with the following ascending order: net ecosystem exchange ( R 2 < 0.5), ecosystem respiration ( R 2 > 0.6), gross primary production ( R 2> 0.7), latent heat ( R 2 > 0.7), sensible heat ( R 2 > 0.7), and net radiation ( R 2 > 0.8). The ML methods predicted the across-site variability and the mean seasonal cycle of the observed fluxes very well ( R 2 > 0.7), while the 8-day deviations from the mean seasonal cycle were not well predicted ( R 2 < 0.5). Fluxes were better predicted at forested and temperate climate sites than at sites in extreme climates or less represented by training data (e.g., the tropics). Finally, the evaluated large ensemble of ML-based models will be the basis of new global flux products.« less

Potential emission savings from refrigeration and air conditioning systems by using low GWP refrigerants

DOE PAGES

Beshr, Mohamed; Aute, Vikrant; Abdelaziz, Omar; ...

2016-08-24

Refrigeration and air conditioning systems have high, negative environmental impacts due to refrigerant charge leaks from the system and their corresponding high global warming potential. Thus, many efforts are in progress to obtain suitable low GWP alternative refrigerants and more environmentally friendly systems for the future. In addition, the system’s life cycle climate performance (LCCP) is a widespread metric proposed for the evaluation of the system’s environmental impact.

Potential emission savings from refrigeration and air conditioning systems by using low GWP refrigerants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beshr, Mohamed; Aute, Vikrant; Abdelaziz, Omar

Refrigeration and air conditioning systems have high, negative environmental impacts due to refrigerant charge leaks from the system and their corresponding high global warming potential. Thus, many efforts are in progress to obtain suitable low GWP alternative refrigerants and more environmentally friendly systems for the future. In addition, the system’s life cycle climate performance (LCCP) is a widespread metric proposed for the evaluation of the system’s environmental impact.

The impact of Tibet and the Andes on the climate and isotopic composition of precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battisti, D. S.; Ding, Q.; Liu, X.; Roe, G.

2012-12-01

We summarize modeling and theoretical evidence for the impact of the high topography in Tibet and the Andes on the climate and the isotopic (δ18O) composition of precipitation, regionally and globally. Tibet controls the seasonal cycle of precipitation over eastern China, mainly via dynamical processes, and has little to no impact on the Indian and southeast Asian monsoons. Tibet is also responsible for the northwesterly winds and extraordinary cold winters in northern China, and contributes to the mid-winter suppression of storminess in the western and central Pacific. The Andes greatly shape the climatological precipitation over South America, and are an important contributor to the annual cycle in sea surface temperature, precipitation and atmospheric circulation throughout the eastern half of the tropical Pacific. We have performed a series of numerical experiments with the isotope-enabled ECHAM 4.6 atmospheric general circulation model to illuminate the impact of the Andes and Tibet on the regional distribution of oxygen isotopes in precipitation. Experiments to be discussed include a world without an elevated Andes circa 12 million years BP, and a series of experiments that prescribed a plausible evolution of the continental geometry and topography for the past 50 million years in and around the Indian Ocean basin. In the latter case, additional idealized experiments are performed to illuminate the separate impacts of topography and continental configuration.

Seasonal and interannual variations of atmospheric CO2 and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dettinger, Michael D.; Ghil, Michael

1998-02-01

Interannual variations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa are almost masked by the seasonal cycle and a strong trend; at the South Pole, the seasonal cycle is small and is almost lost in the trend and interannual variations. Singular-spectrum analysis (SSA) is used here to isolate and reconstruct interannual signals at both sites and to visualize recent decadal changes in the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle. Analysis of the Mauna Loa CO2 series illustrates a hastening of the CO2 seasonal cycle, a close temporal relation between Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean temperature trends and the amplitude of the seasonal CO2 cycle, and tentative ties between the latter and seasonality changes in temperature over the NH continents. Variations of the seasonal CO2 cycle at the South Pole differ from those at Mauna Loa: it is phase changes of the seasonal cycle at the South Pole, rather than amplitude changes, that parallel hemispheric and global temperature trends. The seasonal CO2 cycles exhibit earlier occurrences of the seasons by 7days at Mauna Loa and 18days at the South Pole. Interannual CO2 variations are shared at the two locations, appear to respond to tropical processes, and can be decomposed mostly into two periodicities, around (3years)1 and (4years)1, respectively. Joint SSA analyses of CO2 concentrations and tropical climate indices isolate a shared mode with a quasi-triennial (QT) period in which the CO2 and sea-surface temperature (SST) participation are in phase opposition. The other shared mode has a quasi-quadrennial (QQ) period and CO2 variations are in phase with the corresponding tropical SST variations throughout the tropics. Together these interannual modes exhibit a mean lag between tropical SSTs and CO2 variations of about 6 8months, with SST leading. Analysis of the QT and QQ signals in global gridded SSTs, joint SSA of CO2 and δ13C isotopic ratios, and SSA of CO2 and NH-land temperatures indicate that the QT variations in CO2 mostly reflect upwelling variations in the eastern tropical Pacific. QQ variations are dominated by the CO2 signature of terrestrial-ecosystem response to global QQ climate variations. Climate variations associated with these two interannual components of tropical variability have very different effects on global climate and, especially, on terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle.

Climate change impacts and adaptation in forestry: responses by trees and markets.

Treesearch

Ralph Alig; Darius Adams; Linda Joyce; Brent Sohngen

2004-01-01

The forest sector-forestry and forest industries-plays an important role in the global climate change debate. The sector influences the global carbon cycle through the sequestration of atmospheric carbon in forests and is in turn influenced by global climate change through its impacts on the rates of forest growth and climate-induced changes in natural disturbances...

Tracking Middle Grades Climate Data to Inform School Change. REL West Research Digest

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Regional Educational Laboratory West, 2015

2015-01-01

A growing body of research shows that positive school climate is a key lever for students' academic and social development and success. This research digest shows how an alliance of California schools and districts, school climate experts, and state education agency personnel have teamed up to use school climate data to drive a continuous cycle of…

3D climate-carbon modelling of the early Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charnay, B.; Le Hir, G.; Fluteau, F.; Forget, F.; Catling, D.

2017-09-01

We revisit the climate and carbon cycle of the early Earth at 3.8 Ga using a 3D climate-carbon model. Our resultsfavor cold or temperate climates with global mean temperatures between around 8°C (281 K) and 30°C (303 K) and with 0.1-0.36 bar of CO2 for the late Hadean and early Archean.

Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history

PubMed Central

Zhang, David D.; Brecke, Peter; Lee, Harry F.; He, Yuan-Qing; Zhang, Jane

2007-01-01

Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war–peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism. PMID:18048343

Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history.

PubMed

Zhang, David D; Brecke, Peter; Lee, Harry F; He, Yuan-Qing; Zhang, Jane

2007-12-04

Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war-peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism.

Climatic and ecological impacts of tropospheric sulphate aerosols on the terrestrial carbon cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliseev, Alexey V.

2015-04-01

Tropospheric sulphate aerosols (TSA) may oxidise the photosynthesising tissues if they are taken up by plants. A parametrisation of this impact of tropospheric sulphate aerosols (TSA) on the terrestrial gross primary production is suggested. This parametrisation is implemented into the global Earth system model developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of the Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM). With this coupled model, the simulations are performed which are forced by common anthropogenic and natural climate forcings based on historical reconstructions followed by the RCP 8.5 scenario. The model response to sulphate aerosol loading is subdivided into the climatic (related to the influence of TSA on the radiative transport in the atmosphere) and ecological (related to the toxic influence of sulphate aerosol on terrestrial plants) impacts. We found that the former basically dominates over the latter on the global scale and modifies the responses of the global vegetation and soil carbon stocks to external forcings by 10%. At regional scale, however, ecological impact may be as much important as the climatic one.

Vadose zone controls on damping of climate-induced transient recharge fluxes in U.S. agroecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurdak, Jason

2017-04-01

Understanding the physical processes in the vadose zone that link climate variability with transient recharge fluxes has particular relevance for the sustainability of groundwater-supported irrigated agriculture and other groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Natural climate variability on interannual to multidecadal timescales has well-documented influence on precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, infiltration flux, and can augment or diminish human stresses on water resources. Here the behavior and damping depth of climate-induced transient water flux in the vadose zone is explored. The damping depth is the depth in the vadose zone that the flux variation damps to 5% of the land surface variation. Steady-state recharge occurs when the damping depth is above the water table, and transient recharge occurs when the damping depth is below the water table. Findings are presented from major agroecosystems of the United States (U.S.), including the High Plains, Central Valley, California Coastal Basin, and Mississippi Embayment aquifer systems. Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is used to identify quasi-periodic signals in precipitation and groundwater time series that are coincident with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) (6-12 mo cycle), Pacific/North American oscillation (PNA) (<1-4 yr cycle), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (2-7 yr cycle), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (3-6 yr cycle), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (15-30 yr cycle), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (50-70 yr cycle). SSA results indicate that nearly all of the quasi-periodic signals in the precipitation and groundwater levels have a statistically significant lag correlation (95% confidence interval) with the AO, PNA, ENSO, NAO, PDO, and AMO indices. Results from HYDRUS-1D simulations indicate that transient water flux through the vadose zone are controlled by highly nonlinear interactions between mean infiltration flux and infiltration period related to the modes of climate variability and the local soil textures, layering, and depth to the water table. Simulation results for homogeneous profiles generally show that shorter-period climate oscillations, smaller mean fluxes, and finer-grained soil textures generally produce damping depths closer to land surface. Simulation results for layered soil textures indicate more complex responses in the damping depth, including the finding that finer-textured layers in a coarser soil profile generally result in damping depths closer to land surface, while coarser-textured layers in coarser soil profile result in damping depths deeper in the vadose zone. Findings from this study improve understanding of how vadose zone properties influences transient recharge flux and damp climate variability signals in groundwater systems, and have important implications for sustainable management of groundwater resources and coupled agroecosystems under future climate variability and change.

TThe role of nitrogen availability in land-atmosphere interactions: a systematic evaluation of carbon-nitrogen coupling in a global land surface model using plot-level nitrogen fertilization experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, R. Q.; Goodale, C. L.; Bonan, G. B.; Mahowald, N. M.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Thornton, P. E.

2010-12-01

Recent research from global land surface models emphasizes the important role of nitrogen cycling on global climate, via its control on the terrestrial carbon balance. Despite the implications of nitrogen cycling on global climate predictions, the research community has not performed a systematic evaluation of nitrogen cycling in global models. Here, we present such an evaluation for one global land model, CLM-CN. In the evaluation we simulated 45 plot-scale nitrogen-fertilization experiments distributed across 33 temperate and boreal forest sites. Model predictions were evaluated against field observations by comparing the vegetation and soil carbon responses to the additional nitrogen. Aggregated across all experiments, the model predicted a larger vegetation carbon response and a smaller soil carbon response than observed; the responses partially offset each other, leading to a slightly larger total ecosystem carbon response than observed. However, the model-observation agreement improved for vegetation carbon when the sites with observed negative carbon responses to nitrogen were excluded, which may be because the model lacks mechanisms whereby nitrogen additions increase tree mortality. Among experiments, younger forests and boreal forests’ vegetation carbon responses were less than predicted and mature forests (> 40 years old) were greater than predicted. Specific to the CLM-CN, this study used a systematic evaluation to identify key areas to focus model development, especially soil carbon- nitrogen interactions and boreal forest nitrogen cycling. Applicable to the modeling community, this study demonstrates a standardized protocol for comparing carbon-nitrogen interactions among global land models.

Leveraging Improvements in Precipitation Measuring from GPM Mission to Achieve Prediction Improvements in Climate, Weather and Hydrometeorology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.

2002-01-01

The main scientific goal of the GPM mission, currently planned for start in the 2007 time frame, is to investigate important scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycles. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood/draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like "core" satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing Operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. GPM is organized internationally, currently involving a partnership between NASA in the US and the National Space Development Agency in Japan. Additionally, the program is actively pursuing agreements with other international partners and domestic scientific agencies and institutions, as well as participation by individual scientists from academia, government, and the private sector to fulfill mission goals and to pave the way for what ultimately is expected to become an internationally-organized operational global precipitation observing system. Notably, the broad societal applications of GPM are reflected in the United Nation s identification of this mission as a foremost candidate for its Peaceful Uses of Space Program. In this presentation, an overview of the GPM mission design will be presented, followed by an explanation of its scientific agenda as an outgrowth of making improvements in rain retrieval accuracy, microphysics dexterity, sampling frequency, and global coverage. All of these improvements offer new means to observe variability in precipitation and water cycle fluxes and to achieve improved predictability of weather, climate, and hydrometeorology. Specifically, the scientific agenda of GPM has been designed to leverage the measurement improvements to improve prognostic model performance, particularly quantitative precipitation forecasting and its linked phenomena at short, intermediate, and extended time scales. The talk will address how GPM measurements will enable better detection of accelerations and decelerations in regional and global water cycle processes and their relationship to climate variability, better impacts of precipitation data assimilation on numerical weather prediction and global climate reanalysis, and better performance from basin scale hydrometeorological models for short and long term flood-drought forecasting and seasonal fresh water resource assessment. Improved hydrometeorological forecasting will be possible by using continuous global precipitation observations to obtain better closure in water budgets and to generate more realistic forcing of the models themselves to achieve more accurate estimates of interception, infiltration, evaporation/transpiration fluxes, storage, and runoff.

Solar System Chaos and its climatic and biogeochemical consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikeda, M.; Tada, R.; Ozaki, K.; Olsen, P. E.

2017-12-01

Insolation changes caused by changes in Earth's orbital parameters are the main driver of climatic variations, whose pace has been used for astronomically-calibrated geologic time scales of high accuracy to understand Earth system dynamics. However, the astrophysical models beyond several tens of million years ago have large uncertainty due to chaotic behavior of the Solar System, and its impact on amplitude modulation of multi-Myr-scale orbital variations and consequent climate changes has become the subject of debate. Here we show the geologic constraints on the past chaotic behavior of orbital cycles from early Mesozoic monsoon-related records; the 30-Myr-long lake level records of the lacustrine sequence in Newark-Hartford basins (North America) and 70-Myr-long biogenic silica (BSi) burial flux record of pelagic deep-sea chert sequence in Inuyama area (Japan). BSi burial flux of chert could be considered as proportional to the dissolved Si (DSi) input from chemical weathering on timescales longer than the residence time of DSi ( 100 kyr), because chert could represent a major sink for oceanic dissolved silica (Ikeda et al., 2017).These geologic records show multi-Myr cycles with similar frequency modulations of eccentricity solution of astronomical model La2010d (Laskar et al., 2011) compared with other astronomical solutions, but not exactly same. Our geologic records provide convincing evidence for the past chaotic dynamical behaviour of the Solar System and new and challenging additional constraints for astrophysical models. In addition, we find that ˜10 Myr cycle detected in monsoon proxies and their amplitude modulation of ˜2 Myr cycle may be related to the amplitude modulation of ˜2 Myr eccentricity cycle through non-linear process(es) of Earth system dynamics, suggesting possible impact of the chaotic behavior of Solar planets on climate change. Further impact of multi-Myr orbital cycles on global biogeochemical cycles will be discussed.

INTRODUCTION: Anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allan, Richard P.; Liepert, Beate G.

2010-06-01

The atmospheric branch of the water cycle, although containing just a tiny fraction of the Earth's total water reserves, presents a crucial interface between the physical climate (such as large-scale rainfall patterns) and the ecosystems upon which human societies ultimately depend. Because of the central importance of water in the Earth system, the question of how the water cycle is changing, and how it may alter in future as a result of anthropogenic changes, present one of the greatest challenges of this century. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on Climate Change and Water (Bates et al 2008) highlighted the increasingly strong evidence of change in the global water cycle and associated environmental consequences. It is of critical importance to climate prediction and adaptation strategies that key processes in the atmospheric water cycle are precisely understood and determined, from evaporation at the surface of the ocean, transport by the atmosphere, condensation as cloud and eventual precipitation, and run-off through rivers following interaction with the land surface, sub-surface, ice, snow and vegetation. The purpose of this special focus issue of Environmental Research Letters on anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle is to consolidate the recent substantial advances in understanding past, present and future changes in the global water cycle through evidence built upon theoretical understanding, backed up by observations and borne out by climate model simulations. Thermodynamic rises in water vapour provide a central constraint, as discussed in a guest editorial by Bengtsson (2010). Theoretical implications of the Clausius-Clapeyron equation are presented by O'Gorman and Muller (2010) and with reference to a simple model (Sherwood 2010) while observed humidity changes confirm these anticipated responses at the land and ocean surface (Willett et al 2008). Rises in low-level moisture are thought to fuel an intensification of precipitation (O'Gorman and Schneider 2009) and analysis of observed and simulated changes in extreme rainfall for Europe (Lenderink and van Mijgaard 2008) and over tropical oceans by Allan et al (2010) appear to corroborate this. Radiative absorption by water vapour (Previdi 2010, Stephens and Ellis 2008) also provides a thermodynamic feedback on the water cycle, and explains why climate model projections of global precipitation and evaporation of around 1-3% K-1 are muted with respect to the expected 7% K-1 increases in low-level moisture. Climate models achieve dynamical responses through reductions in strength of the Walker circulation (Vecchi et al 2006) and small yet systematic changes in the atmospheric boundary layer over the ocean that modify evaporation (Richter and Xie 2008). A further consequence is anticipated sub-tropical drying (Neelin et al 2006, Chou et al 2007); Allan et al (2010) confirm a decline in dry sub-tropical precipitation while the wet regions become wetter both in model simulations and satellite-based observations. Discrepancies between observed and climate model simulated hydrological response to warming (Wentz et al 2007, Yu and Weller 2007) are of immediate concern in understanding and predicting future responses. Over decadal time-scales it is important to establish whether such discrepancies relate to the observing system, climate modeling deficiencies, or are a statistical artifact of the brevity of the satellite records (Liepert and Previdi 2009). Techniques for extracting information on century-scale changes in precipitation are emerging (Smith et al 2009) but are also subject to severe limitations. Past decadal-scale changes in the water cycle may be further influenced by regionally and temporally varying forcings and resulting feedbacks which must be represented realistically by models (Andrews et al 2009). The radiative impact of aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds and precipitation (Liepert et al 2004) provide an important example. Understanding surface solar 'dimming' and 'brightening' trends in the context of past and current changes in the water cycle are discussed in a guest editorial by Wild and Liepert (2010). The key roles anthropogenic aerosols can play on a regional scale are discussed by Lau et al (2010) through their study of the regional impact of absorbing aerosols on warming and snow melt over the Himalayas. The overarching goal of climate prediction is to provide reliable, probabilistic estimates of future changes. Relating hydrological responses back to a sound physical basis, the motivation for this special focus issue, is paramount in building confidence in anticipated changes, especially in the global water cycle. We are grateful to the reviewers and the journal editorial board for making this focus issue possible. Focus on Anticipated Changes in the Global Atmospheric Water Cycle Contents Editorials The global atmospheric water cycle Lennart Bengtsson The Earth radiation balance as driver of the global hydrological cycle Martin Wild and Beate Liepert Letters Enhanced surface warming and accelerated snow melt in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau induced by absorbing aerosols William K M Lau, Maeng-Ki Kim, Kyu-Myong Kim and Woo-Seop Lee Current changes in tropical precipitation Richard P Allan, Brian J Soden, Viju O John, William Ingram and Peter Good Direct versus indirect effects of tropospheric humidity changes on the hydrologic cycle S C Sherwood How closely do changes in surface and column water vapor follow Clausius-Clapeyron scaling in climate change simulations? P A O'Gorman and C J Muller Linking increases in hourly precipitation extremes to atmospheric temperature and moisture changes Geert Lenderink and Erik van Meijgaard Are climate-related changes to the character of global-mean precipitation predictable? Graeme L Stephens and Yongxiang Hu A comparison of large scale changes in surface humidity over land in observations and CMIP3 general circulation models Katharine M Willett, Philip D Jones, Peter W Thorne and Nathan P Gillett Radiative feedbacks on global precipitation Michael Previdi The transient response of global-mean precipitation to increasing carbon dioxide levels Timothy Andrews and Piers M Forster The observed sensitivity of the global hydrological cycle to changes in surface temperature Phillip A Arkin, Thomas M Smith, Mathew R P Sapiano and John Janowiak Precipitation changes within dynamical regimes in a perturbed climate Jonny Williams and Mark A Ringer

Volcanic CO2 Emissions and Glacial Cycles: Coupled Oscillations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burley, J. M.; Huybers, P. J.; Katz, R. F.

2016-12-01

Following the mid-Pleistocene transition, the dominant period of glacial cycles changed from 40 ka to 100 ka. It is broadly accepted that the 40 ka glacial cycles were driven by cyclical changes in obliquity. However, this forcing does not explain the 100 ka glacial cycles. Mechanisms proposed for 100 ka cycles include isostatic bed depression and proglacial lakes destabilising the Laurentide ice sheet, non-linear responses to orbital eccentricity, and Antarctic ice sheets influencing deep-ocean stratification. None of these are universally accepted. Here we investigate the hypothesis that variations in volcanic CO2 emissions can cause 100 ka glacial cycles. Any proposed mechanism for 100 ka glacial cycles must give the Earth's climate system a memory of 10^4 - 10^5years. This timescale is difficult to achieve for surface processes, however it is possible for the solid Earth. Recent work suggests volcanic CO2 emissions change in response to glacial cycles [1] and that there could be a 50 ka delay in that response [2]. Such a lagged response could drive glacial cycles from 40 ka cycles to an integer multiple of the forcing period. Under what conditions could the climate system admit such a response? To address this, we use a simplified climate model modified from Huybers and Tziperman [3]. Our version comprises three component models for energy balance, ice sheet growth and atmospheric CO2 concentration. The model is driven by insolation alone with other components varying according to a system of coupled, differential equations. The model is run for 500 ka to produce several glacial cycles and the resulting changes in global ice volume and atmospheric CO2 concentration.We obtain a switch from 40 ka to 100 ka cycles as the volcanic CO2 response to glacial cycles is increased. These 100 ka cycles are phase-locked to obliquity, lasting 80 or 120 ka. Whilst the MOR response required (in this model) is larger than plausible estimates based on [2], it illustrates the potential of MOR CO2 feedbacks to generate 100 ka glacial cycles [1] Huybers & Langmuir, 2009[2] Burley & Katz, 2015 [3] Huybers & Tziperman, 2008

Terrestrial nitrogen–carbon cycle interactions at the global scale

PubMed Central

Zaehle, S.

2013-01-01

Interactions between the terrestrial nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) cycles shape the response of ecosystems to global change. However, the global distribution of nitrogen availability and its importance in global biogeochemistry and biogeochemical interactions with the climate system remain uncertain. Based on projections of a terrestrial biosphere model scaling ecological understanding of nitrogen–carbon cycle interactions to global scales, anthropogenic nitrogen additions since 1860 are estimated to have enriched the terrestrial biosphere by 1.3 Pg N, supporting the sequestration of 11.2 Pg C. Over the same time period, CO2 fertilization has increased terrestrial carbon storage by 134.0 Pg C, increasing the terrestrial nitrogen stock by 1.2 Pg N. In 2001–2010, terrestrial ecosystems sequestered an estimated total of 27 Tg N yr−1 (1.9 Pg C yr−1), of which 10 Tg N yr−1 (0.2 Pg C yr−1) are due to anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. Nitrogen availability already limits terrestrial carbon sequestration in the boreal and temperate zone, and will constrain future carbon sequestration in response to CO2 fertilization (regionally by up to 70% compared with an estimate without considering nitrogen–carbon interactions). This reduced terrestrial carbon uptake will probably dominate the role of the terrestrial nitrogen cycle in the climate system, as it accelerates the accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere. However, increases of N2O emissions owing to anthropogenic nitrogen and climate change (at a rate of approx. 0.5 Tg N yr−1 per 1°C degree climate warming) will add an important long-term climate forcing. PMID:23713123

Terrestrial nitrogen-carbon cycle interactions at the global scale.

PubMed

Zaehle, S

2013-07-05

Interactions between the terrestrial nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) cycles shape the response of ecosystems to global change. However, the global distribution of nitrogen availability and its importance in global biogeochemistry and biogeochemical interactions with the climate system remain uncertain. Based on projections of a terrestrial biosphere model scaling ecological understanding of nitrogen-carbon cycle interactions to global scales, anthropogenic nitrogen additions since 1860 are estimated to have enriched the terrestrial biosphere by 1.3 Pg N, supporting the sequestration of 11.2 Pg C. Over the same time period, CO2 fertilization has increased terrestrial carbon storage by 134.0 Pg C, increasing the terrestrial nitrogen stock by 1.2 Pg N. In 2001-2010, terrestrial ecosystems sequestered an estimated total of 27 Tg N yr(-1) (1.9 Pg C yr(-1)), of which 10 Tg N yr(-1) (0.2 Pg C yr(-1)) are due to anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. Nitrogen availability already limits terrestrial carbon sequestration in the boreal and temperate zone, and will constrain future carbon sequestration in response to CO2 fertilization (regionally by up to 70% compared with an estimate without considering nitrogen-carbon interactions). This reduced terrestrial carbon uptake will probably dominate the role of the terrestrial nitrogen cycle in the climate system, as it accelerates the accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere. However, increases of N2O emissions owing to anthropogenic nitrogen and climate change (at a rate of approx. 0.5 Tg N yr(-1) per 1°C degree climate warming) will add an important long-term climate forcing.

Climate variability and changes in the agricultural cycle in the Czech Lands from the sixteenth century to the present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brázdil, Rudolf; Možný, Martin; Klír, Tomáš; Řezníčková, Ladislava; Trnka, Miroslav; Dobrovolný, Petr; Kotyza, Oldřich

2018-05-01

This contribution analyses the influence of long-term climate variability on changes in the agricultural cycle in the Czech Lands over the course of the past five centuries. Series of crop- and grape-harvest (for wine) dates were compiled from rich documentary evidence for the periods of 1517-1542, 1561-1622, 1770-1815, 1871-1910 and 1971-2010. Two model areas were selected: the Louny region in north-west Bohemia and the Elbe region in central Bohemia. Fluctuations in selected agricultural series are compared with those expressed in temperature, precipitation and Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) series for various combinations of months. The basic statistics for the agricultural series are presented, and these are correlated with climatic variables. The earliest starts for harvests occurred in the recent 1971-2010 period and the 1517-1542 period. Harvest dates were comparatively delayed in the three remaining periods. Air temperature, also combined with the drought effect as expressed by SPEI, played a significant role in the agricultural cycle in all periods analysed except 1871-1910, in which temperatures were notably dominant as quite wet patterns prevailed. Summer precipitation played a significant role in the first three periods analysed. Correlation coefficients of agricultural series with temperatures indicate increasing weight for this factor over the course of the centuries. Possible effects of uncertainties in agricultural and climatic data in the results obtained are discussed, as well as the relationship of the agricultural cycle to climate variables and its broader context.

Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate change constrained by carbon dioxide variability.

PubMed

Cox, Peter M; Pearson, David; Booth, Ben B; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Huntingford, Chris; Jones, Chris D; Luke, Catherine M

2013-02-21

The release of carbon from tropical forests may exacerbate future climate change, but the magnitude of the effect in climate models remains uncertain. Coupled climate-carbon-cycle models generally agree that carbon storage on land will increase as a result of the simultaneous enhancement of plant photosynthesis and water use efficiency under higher atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, but will decrease owing to higher soil and plant respiration rates associated with warming temperatures. At present, the balance between these effects varies markedly among coupled climate-carbon-cycle models, leading to a range of 330 gigatonnes in the projected change in the amount of carbon stored on tropical land by 2100. Explanations for this large uncertainty include differences in the predicted change in rainfall in Amazonia and variations in the responses of alternative vegetation models to warming. Here we identify an emergent linear relationship, across an ensemble of models, between the sensitivity of tropical land carbon storage to warming and the sensitivity of the annual growth rate of atmospheric CO(2) to tropical temperature anomalies. Combined with contemporary observations of atmospheric CO(2) concentration and tropical temperature, this relationship provides a tight constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to climate change. We estimate that over tropical land from latitude 30° north to 30° south, warming alone will release 53 ± 17 gigatonnes of carbon per kelvin. Compared with the unconstrained ensemble of climate-carbon-cycle projections, this indicates a much lower risk of Amazon forest dieback under CO(2)-induced climate change if CO(2) fertilization effects are as large as suggested by current models. Our study, however, also implies greater certainty that carbon will be lost from tropical land if warming arises from reductions in aerosols or increases in other greenhouse gases.

Depositional environments and cyclo- and chronostratigraphy of uppermost Carboniferous-Lower Triassic -lacustrine deposits, southern Bogda Mountains, NW China - A terrestrfluvialial paleoclimatic record of mid-latitude NE Pangea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yang, W.; Feng, Q.; Liu, Yajing; Tabor, N.; Miggins, D.; Crowley, J.L.; Lin, J.; Thomas, S.

2010-01-01

Two uppermost Carboniferous–Lower Triassic fluvial–lacustrine sections in the Tarlong–Taodonggou half-graben, southern Bogda Mountains, NW China, comprise a 1834 m-thick, relatively complete sedimentary and paleoclimatic record of the east coast of mid-latitude NE Pangea. Depositional environmental interpretations identified three orders (high, intermediate, and low) of sedimentary cycles. High-order cycles (HCs) have five basic types, including fluvial cycles recording repetitive changes of erosion and deposition and lacustrine cycles recording repetitive environmental changes associated with lake expansion and contraction. HCs are grouped into intermediate-order cycles (ICs) on the basis of systematic changes of thickness, type, and component lithofacies of HCs. Nine low-order cycles (LCs) are demarcated by graben-wide surfaces across which significant long-term environmental changes occurred. A preliminary cyclostratigraphic framework provides a foundation for future studies of terrestrial climate, tectonics, and paleontology in mid-latitude NE Pangea.Climate variabilities at the intra-HC, HC, IC, and LC scales were interpreted from sedimentary and paleosol evidence. Four prominent climatic shifts are present: 1) from the humid–subhumid to highly-variable subhumid–semiarid conditions at the beginning of Sakamarian; 2) from highly-variable subhumid–semiarid to humid–subhumid conditions across the Artinskian-Capitanian unconformity; 3) from humid–subhumid to highly-variable subhumid–semiarid conditions at early Induan; and 4) from the highly-variable subhumid–semiarid to humid–subhumid conditions across the Olenekian-Anisian unconformity. The stable humid–subhumid condition from Lopingian to early Induan implies that paleoclimate change may not have been the cause of the end-Permian terrestrial mass extinction. A close documentation of the pace and timing of the extinction and exploration of other causes are needed. In addition, the semiarid–subhumid conditions from Sakamarian to Artinskian–Kungurian (?) and from middle Induan to end of Olenekian are in conflict with modern mid-latitude east coast meso- and macrothermal humid climate. Extreme continentality, regional orographic effect, and/or abnormal circulation of Paleo-Tethys maybe are possible causes. Our work serves as a rare data point at mid-latitude NE Pangea for climate modeling to seek explanations on the origin(s) of climate variability in NE Pangea from latest Carboniferous to Early Triassic.

Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project:Comparing biogeography and biogeochemistry models in a continental-scale study of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change and CO2 doubling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1995-12-01

We compare the simulations of three biogeography models (BIOME2, Dynamic Global Phytogeography Model (DOLY), and Mapped Atmosphere-Plant Soil System (MAPSS)) and three biogeochemistry models (BIOME-BGC (BioGeochemistry Cycles), CENTURY, and Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM)) for the conterminous United States under contemporary conditions of atmospheric CO2 and climate. We also compare the simulations of these models under doubled CO2 and a range of climate scenarios. For contemporary conditions, the biogeography models successfully simulate the geographic distribution of major vegetation types and have similar estimates of area for forests (42 to 46% of the conterminous United States), grasslands (17 to 27%), savannas (15 to 25%), and shrublands (14 to 18%). The biogeochemistry models estimate similar continental-scale net primary production (NPP; 3125 to 3772 × 1012 gC yr-1) and total carbon storage (108 to 118 × 1015 gC) for contemporary conditions. Among the scenarios of doubled CO2 and associated equilibrium climates produced by the three general circulation models (Oregon State University (OSU), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), and United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO)), all three biogeography models show both gains and losses of total forest area depending on the scenario (between 38 and 53% of conterminous United States area). The only consistent gains in forest area with all three models (BIOME2, DOLY, and MAPSS) were under the GFDL scenario due to large increases in precipitation. MAPSS lost forest area under UKMO, DOLY under OSU, and BIOME2 under both UKMO and OSU. The variability in forest area estimates occurs because the hydrologic cycles of the biogeography models have different sensitivities to increases in temperature and CO2. However, in general, the biogeography models produced broadly similar results when incorporating both climate change and elevated CO2 concentrations. For these scenarios, the NPP estimated by the biogeochemistry models increases between 2% (BIOME-BGC with UKMO climate) and 35% (TEM with UKMO climate). Changes in total carbon storage range from losses of 33% (BIOME-BGC with UKMO climate) to gains of 16% (TEM with OSU climate). The CENTURY responses of NPP and carbon storage are positive and intermediate to the responses of BIOME-BGC and TEM. The variability in carbon cycle responses occurs because the hydrologic and nitrogen cycles of the biogeochemistry models have different sensitivities to increases in temperature and CO2. When the biogeochemistry models are run with the vegetation distributions of the biogeography models, NPP ranges from no response (BIOME-BGC with all three biogeography model vegetations for UKMO climate) to increases of 40% (TEM with MAPSS vegetation for OSU climate). The total carbon storage response ranges from a decrease of 39% (BIOME-BGC with MAPSS vegetation for UKMO climate) to an increase of 32% (TEM with MAPSS vegetation for OSU and GFDL climates). The UKMO responses of BIOME-BGC with MAPSS vegetation are primarily caused by decreases in forested area and temperature-induced water stress. The OSU and GFDL responses of TEM with MAPSS vegetations are primarily caused by forest expansion and temperature-enhanced nitrogen cycling.

Vegetation/ecosystem modeling and analysis project: Comparing biogeography and biogeochemistry models in a continental-scale study of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change and CO2 doubling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melillo, J. M.; Borchers, J.; Chaney, J.; Fisher, H.; Fox, S.; Haxeltine, A.; Janetos, A.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Kittel, T. G. F.; McGuire, A. D.; McKeown, R.; Neilson, R.; Nemani, R.; Ojima, D. S.; Painter, T.

1995-12-01

We compare the simulations of three biogeography models (BIOME2, Dynamic Global Phytogeography Model (DOLY), and Mapped Atmosphere-Plant Soil System (MAPSS)) and three biogeochemistry models (BIOME-BGC (BioGeochemistry Cycles), CENTURY, and Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM)) for the conterminous United States under contemporary conditions of atmospheric CO2 and climate. We also compare the simulations of these models under doubled CO2 and a range of climate scenarios. For contemporary conditions, the biogeography models successfully simulate the geographic distribution of major vegetation types and have similar estimates of area for forests (42 to 46% of the conterminous United States), grasslands (17 to 27%), savannas (15 to 25%), and shrublands (14 to 18%). The biogeochemistry models estimate similar continental-scale net primary production (NPP; 3125 to 3772×1012 gCyr-1) and total carbon storage (108 to 118×1015 gC) for contemporary conditions. Among the scenarios of doubled CO2 and associated equilibrium climates produced by the three general circulation models (Oregon State University (OSU), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), and United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO)), all three biogeography models show both gains and losses of total forest area depending on the scenario (between 38 and 53% of conterminous United States area). The only consistent gains in forest area with all three models (BIOME2, DOLY, and MAPSS) were under the GFDL scenario due to large increases in precipitation. MAPSS lost forest area under UKMO, DOLY under OSU, and BIOME2 under both UKMO and OSU. The variability in forest area estimates occurs because the hydrologic cycles of the biogeography models have different sensitivities to increases in temperature and CO2. However, in general, the biogeography models produced broadly similar results when incorporating both climate change and elevated CO2 concentrations. For these scenarios, the NPP estimated by the biogeochemistry models increases between 2% (BIOME-BGC with UKMO climate) and 35% (TEM with UKMO climate). Changes in total carbon storage range from losses of 33% (BIOME-BGC with UKMO climate) to gains of 16% (TEM with OSU climate). The CENTURY responses of NPP and carbon storage are positive and intermediate to the responses of BIOME-BGC and TEM. The variability in carbon cycle responses occurs because the hydrologic and nitrogen cycles of the biogeochemistry models have different sensitivities to increases in temperature and CO2. When the biogeochemistry models are run with the vegetation distributions of the biogeography models, NPP ranges from no response (BIOME-BGC with all three biogeography model vegetations for UKMO climate) to increases of 40% (TEM with MAPSS vegetation for OSU climate). The total carbon storage response ranges from a decrease of 39% (BIOME-BGC with MAPSS vegetation for UKMO climate) to an increase of 32% (TEM with MAPSS vegetation for OSU and GFDL climates). The UKMO responses of BIOME-BGC with MAPSS vegetation are primarily caused by decreases in forested area and temperature-induced water stress. The OSU and GFDL responses of TEM with MAPSS vegetations are primarily caused by forest expansion and temperature-enhanced nitrogen cycling.

Elevated temperature alters carbon cycling in a model microbial community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosier, A.; Li, Z.; Thomas, B. C.; Hettich, R. L.; Pan, C.; Banfield, J. F.

2013-12-01

Earth's climate is regulated by biogeochemical carbon exchanges between the land, oceans and atmosphere that are chiefly driven by microorganisms. Microbial communities are therefore indispensible to the study of carbon cycling and its impacts on the global climate system. In spite of the critical role of microbial communities in carbon cycling processes, microbial activity is currently minimally represented or altogether absent from most Earth System Models. Method development and hypothesis-driven experimentation on tractable model ecosystems of reduced complexity, as presented here, are essential for building molecularly resolved, benchmarked carbon-climate models. Here, we use chemoautotropic acid mine drainage biofilms as a model community to determine how elevated temperature, a key parameter of global climate change, regulates the flow of carbon through microbial-based ecosystems. This study represents the first community proteomics analysis using tandem mass tags (TMT), which enable accurate, precise, and reproducible quantification of proteins. We compare protein expression levels of biofilms growing over a narrow temperature range expected to occur with predicted climate changes. We show that elevated temperature leads to up-regulation of proteins involved in amino acid metabolism and protein modification, and down-regulation of proteins involved in growth and reproduction. Closely related bacterial genotypes differ in their response to temperature: Elevated temperature represses carbon fixation by two Leptospirillum genotypes, whereas carbon fixation is significantly up-regulated at higher temperature by a third closely related genotypic group. Leptospirillum group III bacteria are more susceptible to viral stress at elevated temperature, which may lead to greater carbon turnover in the microbial food web through the release of viral lysate. Overall, this proteogenomics approach revealed the effects of climate change on carbon cycling pathways and other microbial activities. When scaled to more complex ecosystems and integrated into Earth System Models, this approach could significantly improve predictions of global carbon-climate feedbacks. Experiments such as these are a critical first step designed at understanding climate change impacts in order to better predict ecosystem adaptations, assess the viability of mitigation strategies, and inform relevant policy decisions.

Integrating Climate Change Into Nursing Curricula.

PubMed

McDermott-Levy, Ruth; Jackman-Murphy, Kathryn P; Leffers, Jeanne M; Jordan, Lisa

2018-03-28

Climate change is a significant threat to human health across the life cycle. Nurses play an important role in mitigation, adaptation, and resilience to climate change. The use of health care resources, air quality and extreme heat, mental health, and natural disasters are major content areas across undergraduate nursing curricula that influence or are influenced by climate change. Teaching strategies and resources are offered to prepare nursing students to address climate change and human health.

Implementation of Web Processing Services (WPS) over IPSL Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) node

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kadygrov, Nikolay; Denvil, Sebastien; Carenton, Nicolas; Levavasseur, Guillaume; Hempelmann, Nils; Ehbrecht, Carsten

2016-04-01

The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) is aimed to provide access to climate data for the international climate community. ESGF is a system of distributed and federated nodes that dynamically interact with each other. ESGF user may search and download climatic data, geographically distributed over the world, from one common web interface and through standardized API. With the continuous development of the climate models and the beginning of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the amount of data available from ESGF will continuously increase during the next 5 years. IPSL holds a replication of the different global and regional climate models output, observations and reanalysis data (CMIP5, CORDEX, obs4MIPs, etc) that are available on the IPSL ESGF node. In order to let scientists perform analysis of the models without downloading vast amount of data the Web Processing Services (WPS) were installed at IPSL compute node. The work is part of the CONVERGENCE project founded by French National Research Agency (ANR). PyWPS implementation of the Web processing Service standard from Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) in the framework of birdhouse software is used. The processes could be run by user remotely through web-based WPS client or by using command-line tool. All the calculations are performed on the server side close to the data. If the models/observations are not available at IPSL it will be downloaded and cached by WPS process from ESGF network using synda tool. The outputs of the WPS processes are available for download as plots, tar-archives or as NetCDF files. We present the architecture of WPS at IPSL along with the processes for evaluation of the model performance, on-site diagnostics and post-analysis processing of the models output, e.g.: - regriding/interpolation/aggregation - ocgis (OpenClimateGIS) based polygon subsetting of the data - average seasonal cycle, multimodel mean, multimodel mean bias - calculation of the climate indices with icclim library (CERFACS) - atmospheric modes of variability In order to evaluate performance of any new model, once it became available in ESGF, we implement WPS with several model diagnostics and performance metrics calculated using ESMValTool (Eyring et al., GMDD 2015). As a further step we are developing new WPS processes and core-functions to be implemented at ISPL ESGF compute node following the scientific community needs.

Exploring the implication of climate process uncertainties within the Earth System Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, B.; Lambert, F. H.; McNeal, D.; Harris, G.; Sexton, D.; Boulton, C.; Murphy, J.

2011-12-01

Uncertainties in the magnitude of future climate change have been a focus of a great deal of research. Much of the work with General Circulation Models has focused on the atmospheric response to changes in atmospheric composition, while other processes remain outside these frameworks. Here we introduce an ensemble of new simulations, based on an Earth System configuration of HadCM3C, designed to explored uncertainties in both physical (atmospheric, oceanic and aerosol physics) and carbon cycle processes, using perturbed parameter approaches previously used to explore atmospheric uncertainty. Framed in the context of the climate response to future changes in emissions, the resultant future projections represent significantly broader uncertainty than existing concentration driven GCM assessments. The systematic nature of the ensemble design enables interactions between components to be explored. For example, we show how metrics of physical processes (such as climate sensitivity) are also influenced carbon cycle parameters. The suggestion from this work is that carbon cycle processes represent a comparable contribution to uncertainty in future climate projections as contributions from atmospheric feedbacks more conventionally explored. The broad range of climate responses explored within these ensembles, rather than representing a reason for inaction, provide information on lower likelihood but high impact changes. For example while the majority of these simulations suggest that future Amazon forest extent is resilient to the projected climate changes, a small number simulate dramatic forest dieback. This ensemble represents a framework to examine these risks, breaking them down into physical processes (such as ocean temperature drivers of rainfall change) and vegetation processes (where uncertainties point towards requirements for new observational constraints).

Transformation of soil organics under extreme climate events: a project description

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blagodatskaya, Evgenia

2017-04-01

Recent climate scenarios predict not only continued global warming but also an increased frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as strong changes in temperature and precipitation with unusual regional dynamics. Weather anomalies at European territory of Russia are currently revealed as long-term drought and strong showers in summer and as an increased frequency of soil freezing-thawing cycles. Climate extremes totally change biogeochemical processes and elements cycling both at the ecosystem level and at the level of soil profile mainly affecting soil biota. Misbalance in these processes can cause a reduction of soil carbon stock and an increase of greenhouse gases emission. Our project aims to reveal the transformation mechanisms of soil organic matter caused by extreme weather events taking into consideration the role of biotic-abiotic interactions in regulation of formation, maintenance and turnover of soil carbon stock. Our research strategy is based on the novel concept considering extreme climatic events (showers after long-term droughts, soil flooding, freezing-thawing) as abiotic factors initiating a microbial succession. Study on stoichiometric flexibility of plants under climate extremes as well as on resulting response of soil heterotrophs on stoichiometric changes in substrate will be used for experimental prove and further development of the theory of ecological stoichiometry. The results enable us to reveal the mechanisms of biotic - abiotic interactions responsible for the balance between mobilization and stabilization of soil organic matter. Identified mechanisms will form the basis of an ecosystem model enabled to predict the effects of extreme climatic events on biogenic carbon cycle in the biosphere.

Limit cycles at the outer edge of the habitable zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haqq-Misra, J. D.; Kopparapu, R.; Batalha, N. E.; Harman, C.; Kasting, J. F.

2016-12-01

The liquid water habitable zone (HZ) describes the orbital distance at which a terrestrial planet can maintain above-freezing conditions through regulation by the carbonate-silicate cycle. Calculations with one-dimensional climate models predict that the inner edge of the HZ is limited by water loss through a runaway greenhouse, while the outer edge of the HZ is bounded by the maximum greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide. This classic picture of the HZ continues to guide interpretation of exoplanet discoveries; however, recent calculations have shown that terrestrial planets near the outer edge of the HZ may exhibit other behaviors that affect their habitability. Here I discuss results from a hierarchy of climate models to understand the stellar environments most likely to support a habitable planet. I present energy balance climate model calculations showing the conditions under which planets in the outer regions of the habitable zone should oscillate between long, globally glaciated states and shorter periods of climatic warmth, known as `limit cycles.' Such conditions would be inimical to the development of complex land life, including intelligent life. Limit cycles may also provide an explanation for fluvial features on early Mars, although this requires additional greenhouse warming by hydrogen. These calculations show that the net volcanic outgassing rate and the propensity for plant life to sequester carbon dioxide are critical factors that determine the susceptibility of a planet to limit cycling. I argue that planets orbiting mid G- to mid K-type stars offer more opportunity for supporting advanced life than do planets around F-type stars or M-type stars.

Ecological controls on water-cycle response to climate variability in deserts

PubMed Central

Scanlon, B. R.; Levitt, D. G.; Reedy, R. C.; Keese, K. E.; Sully, M. J.

2005-01-01

The impact of climate variability on the water cycle in desert ecosystems is controlled by biospheric feedback at interannual to millennial timescales. This paper describes a unique field dataset from weighing lysimeters beneath nonvegetated and vegetated systems that unequivocally demonstrates the role of vegetation dynamics in controlling water cycle response to interannual climate variability related to El Niño southern oscillation in the Mojave Desert. Extreme El Niño winter precipitation (2.3-2.5 times normal) typical of the U.S. Southwest would be expected to increase groundwater recharge, which is critical for water resources in semiarid and arid regions. However, lysimeter data indicate that rapid increases in vegetation productivity in response to elevated winter precipitation reduced soil water storage to half of that in a nonvegetated lysimeter, thereby precluding deep drainage below the root zone that would otherwise result in groundwater recharge. Vegetation dynamics have been controlling the water cycle in interdrainage desert areas throughout the U.S. Southwest, maintaining dry soil conditions and upward soil water flow since the last glacial period (10,000-15,000 yr ago), as shown by soil water chloride accumulations. Although measurements are specific to the U.S. Southwest, correlations between satellite-based vegetation productivity and elevated precipitation related to El Niño southern oscillation indicate this model may be applicable to desert basins globally. Understanding the two-way coupling between vegetation dynamics and the water cycle is critical for predicting how climate variability influences hydrology and water resources in water-limited landscapes. PMID:15837922

Timeslice experiments for understanding regional climate projections: applications to the tropical hydrological cycle and European winter circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chadwick, Robin; Douville, Hervé; Skinner, Christopher B.

2017-11-01

A set of atmosphere-only timeslice experiments are described, designed to examine the processes that cause regional climate change and inter-model uncertainty in coupled climate model responses to CO_2 forcing. The timeslice experiments are able to reproduce the pattern of regional climate change in the coupled models, and are applied here to two cases where inter-model uncertainty in future projections is large: the tropical hydrological cycle, and European winter circulation. In tropical forest regions, the plant physiological effect is the largest cause of hydrological cycle change in the two models that represent this process. This suggests that the CMIP5 ensemble mean may be underestimating the magnitude of water cycle change in these regions, due to the inclusion of models without the plant effect. SST pattern change is the dominant cause of precipitation and circulation change over the tropical oceans, and also appears to contribute to inter-model uncertainty in precipitation change over tropical land regions. Over Europe and the North Atlantic, uniform SST increases drive a poleward shift of the storm-track. However this does not consistently translate into an overall polewards storm-track shift, due to large circulation responses to SST pattern change, which varies across the models. Coupled model SST biases influence regional rainfall projections in regions such as the Maritime Continent, and so projections in these regions should be treated with caution.

An unexpected role for mixotrophs in the response of peatland carbon cycling to climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jassey, Vincent E. J.; Signarbieux, Constant; Hättenschwiler, Stephan; Bragazza, Luca; Buttler, Alexandre; Delarue, Frédéric; Fournier, Bertrand; Gilbert, Daniel; Laggoun-Défarge, Fatima; Lara, Enrique; T. E. Mills, Robert; Mitchell, Edward A. D.; Payne, Richard J.; Robroek, Bjorn J. M.

2015-11-01

Mixotrophic protists are increasingly recognized for their significant contribution to carbon (C) cycling. As phototrophs they contribute to photosynthetic C fixation, whilst as predators of decomposers, they indirectly influence organic matter decomposition. Despite these direct and indirect effects on the C cycle, little is known about the responses of peatland mixotrophs to climate change and the potential consequences for the peatland C cycle. With a combination of field and microcosm experiments, we show that mixotrophs in the Sphagnum bryosphere play an important role in modulating peatland C cycle responses to experimental warming. We found that five years of consecutive summer warming with peaks of +2 to +8°C led to a 50% reduction in the biomass of the dominant mixotrophs, the mixotrophic testate amoebae (MTA). The biomass of other microbial groups (including decomposers) did not change, suggesting MTA to be particularly sensitive to temperature. In a microcosm experiment under controlled conditions, we then manipulated the abundance of MTA, and showed that the reported 50% reduction of MTA biomass in the field was linked to a significant reduction of net C uptake (-13%) of the entire Sphagnum bryosphere. Our findings suggest that reduced abundance of MTA with climate warming could lead to reduced peatland C fixation.

An unexpected role for mixotrophs in the response of peatland carbon cycling to climate warming

PubMed Central

Jassey, Vincent E. J.; Signarbieux, Constant; Hättenschwiler, Stephan; Bragazza, Luca; Buttler, Alexandre; Delarue, Frédéric; Fournier, Bertrand; Gilbert, Daniel; Laggoun-Défarge, Fatima; Lara, Enrique; T. E. Mills, Robert; Mitchell, Edward A. D.; Payne, Richard J.; Robroek, Bjorn J. M.

2015-01-01

Mixotrophic protists are increasingly recognized for their significant contribution to carbon (C) cycling. As phototrophs they contribute to photosynthetic C fixation, whilst as predators of decomposers, they indirectly influence organic matter decomposition. Despite these direct and indirect effects on the C cycle, little is known about the responses of peatland mixotrophs to climate change and the potential consequences for the peatland C cycle. With a combination of field and microcosm experiments, we show that mixotrophs in the Sphagnum bryosphere play an important role in modulating peatland C cycle responses to experimental warming. We found that five years of consecutive summer warming with peaks of +2 to +8°C led to a 50% reduction in the biomass of the dominant mixotrophs, the mixotrophic testate amoebae (MTA). The biomass of other microbial groups (including decomposers) did not change, suggesting MTA to be particularly sensitive to temperature. In a microcosm experiment under controlled conditions, we then manipulated the abundance of MTA, and showed that the reported 50% reduction of MTA biomass in the field was linked to a significant reduction of net C uptake (-13%) of the entire Sphagnum bryosphere. Our findings suggest that reduced abundance of MTA with climate warming could lead to reduced peatland C fixation. PMID:26603894

An unexpected role for mixotrophs in the response of peatland carbon cycling to climate warming.

PubMed

Jassey, Vincent E J; Signarbieux, Constant; Hättenschwiler, Stephan; Bragazza, Luca; Buttler, Alexandre; Delarue, Frédéric; Fournier, Bertrand; Gilbert, Daniel; Laggoun-Défarge, Fatima; Lara, Enrique; Mills, Robert T E; Mitchell, Edward A D; Payne, Richard J; Robroek, Bjorn J M

2015-11-25

Mixotrophic protists are increasingly recognized for their significant contribution to carbon (C) cycling. As phototrophs they contribute to photosynthetic C fixation, whilst as predators of decomposers, they indirectly influence organic matter decomposition. Despite these direct and indirect effects on the C cycle, little is known about the responses of peatland mixotrophs to climate change and the potential consequences for the peatland C cycle. With a combination of field and microcosm experiments, we show that mixotrophs in the Sphagnum bryosphere play an important role in modulating peatland C cycle responses to experimental warming. We found that five years of consecutive summer warming with peaks of +2 to +8°C led to a 50% reduction in the biomass of the dominant mixotrophs, the mixotrophic testate amoebae (MTA). The biomass of other microbial groups (including decomposers) did not change, suggesting MTA to be particularly sensitive to temperature. In a microcosm experiment under controlled conditions, we then manipulated the abundance of MTA, and showed that the reported 50% reduction of MTA biomass in the field was linked to a significant reduction of net C uptake (-13%) of the entire Sphagnum bryosphere. Our findings suggest that reduced abundance of MTA with climate warming could lead to reduced peatland C fixation.

N cycling in SPRUCE (Spruce Peatlands Response Under ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Peatlands located in boreal regions make up a third of global wetland area and are expected to have the highest temperature increases in response to climate change. As climate warms, we expect peat decomposition may accelerate, altering the cycling of nitrogen. Alterations in the nitrogen cycle can have consequences on NO3, NH4 availability or pollution, and potentially increase nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, a persistent greenhouse gas (GHG). These consequences can cascade to altering whole ecosystem functions and effecting human health.We are investigating nitrogen cycling response to elevated temperature and CO2 in a boreal peatland. Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climate and Environmental Change (SPRUCE) project initiated soil warming in 2014 in ten peatland mesocosms (five temperature treatments from ambient (+0°C) to +9°C) and elevated CO2 in half of the mesocosms in 2016. Peat cores at three depths (acrotelm, catotelm, deep peat) were analyzed in the laboratory for denitrification, nitrification, and ammonification. We expect denitrification, nitrification, and ammonification rates to increase, and denitrification efficiency to decrease with rising temperatures- potentially contaminating water resources with NO3, NH4 and increase N2O concentrations in our atmosphere. This research will enhance the scientific understanding of how nitrogen cycling, an important functional eco-service, responds under environmental conditions including elevated CO2

Solar Variability in the Context of Other Climate Forcing Mechanisms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E.

1999-01-01

I compare and contrast climate forcings due to solar variability with climate forcings due to other mechanisms of climate change, interpretation of the role of the sun in climate change depends upon climate sensitivity and upon the net forcing by other climate change mechanisms. Among the potential indirect climate forcings due to solar variability, only that due to solar cycle induced ozone changes has been well quantified. There is evidence that the sun has been a significant player in past climate change on decadal to century time scales, and that it has the potential to contribute to climate change in the 21st century.

Vegetation zones in changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belda, Michal; Holtanova, Eva; Halenka, Tomas; Kalvova, Jaroslava

2017-04-01

Climate patterns analysis can be performed for individual climate variables separately or the data can be aggregated using e.g. some kind of climate classification. These classifications usually correspond to vegetation distribution in the sense that each climate type is dominated by one vegetation zone or eco-region. Thus, the Köppen-Trewartha classification provides integrated assessment of temperature and precipitation together with their annual cycle as well. This way climate classifications also can be used as a convenient tool for the assessment and validation of climate models and for the analysis of simulated future climate changes. The Köppen-Trewartha classification is applied on full CMIP5 family of more than 40 GCM simulations and CRU dataset for comparison. This evaluation provides insight on the GCM performance and errors for simulations of the 20th century climate. Common regions are identified, such as Australia or Amazonia, where many state-of-the-art models perform inadequately. Moreover, the analysis of the CMIP5 ensemble for future under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 is performed to assess the climate change for future. There are significant changes for some types in most models e.g. increase of savanna and decrease of tundra for the future climate. For some types significant shifts in latitude can be seen when studying their geographical location in selected continental areas, e.g. toward higher latitudes for boreal climate. Quite significant uncertainty can be seen for some types. For Europe, EuroCORDEX results for both 0.11 and 0.44 degree resolution are validated using Köppen-Trewartha types in comparison to E-OBS based classification. ERA-Interim driven simulations are compared to both present conditions of CMIP5 models as well as their downscaling by EuroCORDEX RCMs. Finally, the climate change signal assessment is provided using the individual climate types. In addition to the changes assessed similarly as for GCMs analysis in terms of the area of individual types, in the continental scale some shifts of boundaries between the selected types can be studied as well providing the information on climate change signal. The shift of the boundary between the boreal zone and continental temperate zone to the north is clearly seen in most simulations as well as eastern move of the boundary of the maritime and continental type of temperate zone. However, there can be quite clear problem with model biases in climate types association. When analysing climate types in Europe and their shifts under climate change using Köppen-Trewartha classification (KTC), for the temperate climate type there are subtypes defined following the continentality patterns, and we can see their generally meridionally located divide across Europe shifted to the east. There is a question whether this is realistic or rather due to the simplistic condition in KTC following the winter minimum temperature, while other continentality indices consider rather the amplitude of temperature during the year. This leads us to connect our analysis of climate change effects using climate classification to the more detailed analysis of continentality patterns development in Europe to provide better insight on the climate regimes and to verify the continentality conditions, their definitions and climate change effects on them. The comparison of several selected continentality indices is shown.

Attribution of declining Western U.S. Snowpack to human effects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pierce, D.W.; Barnett, T.P.; Hidalgo, H.G.; Das, T.; Bonfils, Celine; Santer, B.D.; Bala, G.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Mirin, A.; Wood, A.W.; Nozawa, T.

2008-01-01

Observations show snowpack has declined across much of the western United States over the period 1950-99. This reduction has important social and economic implications, as water retained in the snowpack from winter storms forms an important part of the hydrological cycle and water supply in the region. A formal model-based detection and attribution (D-A) study of these reductions is performed. The detection variable is the ratio of 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE) to water-year-to-date precipitation (P), chosen to reduce the effect of P variability on the results. Estimates of natural internal climate variability are obtained from 1600 years of two control simulations performed with fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Estimates of the SWE/P response to anthropogenic greenhouse gases, ozone, and some aerosols are taken from multiple-member ensembles of perturbation experiments run with two models. The D-A shows the observations and anthropogenically forced models have greater SWE/P reductions than can be explained by natural internal climate variability alone. Model-estimated effects of changes in solar and volcanic forcing likewise do not explain the SWE/P reductions. The mean model estimate is that about half of the SWE/P reductions observed in the west from 1950 to 1999 are the result of climate changes forced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, ozone, and aerosols. ?? 2008 American Meteorological Society.

Investigation of alternative layouts for the supercritical carbon dioxide Brayton cycle for a sodium-cooled fast reactor.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moisseytsev, A.; Sienicki, J. J.

2009-07-01

Analyses of supercritical carbon dioxide (S-CO{sub 2}) Brayton cycle performance have largely settled on the recompression supercritical cycle (or Feher cycle) incorporating a flow split between the main compressor downstream of heat rejection, a recompressing compressor providing direct compression without heat rejection, and high and low temperature recuperators to raise the effectiveness of recuperation and the cycle efficiency. Alternative cycle layouts have been previously examined by Angelino (Politecnico, Milan), by MIT (Dostal, Hejzlar, and Driscoll), and possibly others but not for sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs) operating at relatively low core outlet temperature. Thus, the present authors could not be suremore » that the recompression cycle is an optimal arrangement for application to the SFR. To ensure that an advantageous alternative layout has not been overlooked, several alternative cycle layouts have been investigated for a S-CO{sub 2} Brayton cycle coupled to the Advanced Burner Test Reactor (ABTR) SFR preconceptual design having a 510 C core outlet temperature and a 470 C turbine inlet temperature to determine if they provide any benefit in cycle performance (e.g., enhanced cycle efficiency). No such benefits were identified, consistent with the previous examinations, such that attention was devoted to optimizing the recompression supercritical cycle. The effects of optimizing the cycle minimum temperature and pressure are investigated including minimum temperatures and/or pressures below the critical values. It is found that improvements in the cycle efficiency of 1% or greater relative to previous analyses which arbitrarily fixed the minimum temperature and pressure can be realized through an optimal choice of the combination of the minimum cycle temperature and pressure (e.g., for a fixed minimum temperature there is an optimal minimum pressure). However, this leads to a requirement for a larger cooler for heat rejection which may impact the tradeoff between efficiency and capital cost. In addition, for minimum temperatures below the critical temperature, a lower heat sink temperature is required the availability of which is dependent upon the climate at the specific plant site.« less

Multi-cycle operation of enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR) with different carbon sources under high temperature.

PubMed

Shen, Nan; Chen, Yun; Zhou, Yan

2017-05-01

Many studies reported that it is challenging to apply enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR) process at high temperature. Glycogen accumulating organisms (GAOs) could easily gain their dominance over poly-phosphate accumulating organisms (PAOs) when the operating temperature was in the range of 25 °C-30 °C. However, a few successful EBPR processes operated at high temperature have been reported recently. This study aimed to have an in-depth understanding on the impact of feeding strategy and carbon source types on EBPR performance in tropical climate. P-removal performance of two EBPR systems was monitored through tracking effluent quality and cyclic studies. The results confirmed that EBPR was successfully obtained and maintained at high temperature with a multi-cycle strategy. More stable performance was observed with acetate as the sole carbon source compared to propionate. Stoichiometric ratios of phosphorus and carbon transformation during both anaerobic and aerobic phases were higher at high temperature than low temperature (20±1 °C) except anaerobic PHA/C ratios within most of the sub-cycles. Furthermore, the fractions of PHA and glycogen in biomass were lower compared with one-cycle pulse feed operation. The microbial community structure was more stable in acetate-fed sequencing batch reactor (C2-SBR) than that in propionate-fed reactor (C3-SBR). Accumulibacter Clade IIC was found to be highly abundant in both reactors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variability of North African hydroclimate during the last two climatic cycles: New insights from dust flux and provenance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skonieczny, C.; McGee, D.; Bory, A. J. M.; Winckler, G.; Bradtmiller, L.; Bout-Roumazeilles, V.; Perala-Dewey, J.; Delattre, M.; Kinsley, C. W.; Polissar, P. J.; Malaizé, B.

2016-12-01

Every year, several hundred teragrams of dust are emitted from the Sahara and Sahel regions. These mineral particles sensitively track variations in atmospheric circulation and continental aridity. Sediments of the Northeastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean (NETAO) are fed by this intense dust supply and comprise unique long-term archives of past Saharan/Sahelian dust emissions. Past modifications of dust characteristics in these sedimentary archives can provide unique insights into changes in environmental conditions in source areas (aridity, weathering), as well as changes in atmospheric transport (wind direction and strength). Here we document changes in sediment supply to the NETAO using marine sediment core MD03-2705 (18°05N; 21°09W; 3085m water depth). This record is strategically located under the influence of seasonal dust plumes, and marine sediments of this area have revealed that past dust inputs were sensitive to global climate changes over the late Quaternary. We will focus our study on the last two climatic cycles (0-240ka), a period orbitally characterized by changes in the amplitude of both precession (MIS6-5 vs. MIS1-2) and ice volume (MIS 7 vs. MIS5). We will present, for the first time in this area, a continuous high-resolution record of dust, opal, carbonate and organic matter fluxes using 230Th-normalization. The constant flux proxy 230Thxs provides flux data that are not substantially affected by lateral advection or age model errors. These fluxes data will be complemented by grain-size, clay mineralogical and geochemical (major elements) analysis. By pairing dust flux measurements with complementary proxy data reflecting changes in aridity, wind strength and dust source, this study will provide a robust, continuous record of the magnitude and pacing of the North African hydroclimate variability through the last two climatic cycles. In particular, this long-term study will offer the opportunity to compare the well-documented North African climate variability over the last glacial cycle with the less studied variability recorded during previous glacial-interglacial cycles in order to improve our understanding of the balance of high and low-latitude controls on the climate of North Africa.

Evaluating Carbon and Climate Sensitivities of the NOAA/GFDL Earth System Model ESM2Mb to Forcing Perturbations during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tandy, H.; Shevliakova, E.; Keller, G.

2017-12-01

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, 55.5 Myr) was a period of rapid warming resulting from major changes in the carbon cycle and has been cited as the closest historical analogue to anthropogenic carbon release. Up to now, modeling studies of the PETM used either a low-resolution coupled model of the ocean and atmosphere with prescribed CO2 or CH4, or coupled climate-carbon models of intermediate complexity (i.e. simplified ocean or atmosphere). In this study we carried a suit of numerical experiments with the NOAA/GFDL comprehensive atmosphere-ocean coupled model with integrated terrestrial and marine carbon cycle components, known as an Earth System Model (ESM2Mb). We analyzed the output from millennia-scale ESM2Mb simulations with different combinations of forcings from the pre-PETM and PETM, including greenhouse gas concentrations and solar intensity. In addition we explore sensitivities of climate and carbon cycling to changes in geology such as topography, continental positions, and the presence and absence of large land glaciers. Furthermore, we examine ESM2Mb climate and carbon sensitivities to PETM conditions with a focus on how alternate conditions and forcings relate to the uncertainty in the climate and carbon cycling estimates from paleo observations. We explore changes in atmosphere, land, and ocean temperatures and circulation patterns as well as vegetation distribution, permafrost, and carbon storage in terrestrial and marine ecosystems from pre-PETM to PETM conditions. We found that with the present day land/sea mask and land glaciers in ESM2Mb, changes in only greenhouse gas concentrations (CO2 and CH4) from pre-PETM to PETM conditions induce global warming of 3-5 °C, consistent with the lower range of estimates from paleo proxies. Changes in the carbon permafrost storage from warming cannot explain the rapid increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Changes in the ocean circulation and carbon storage critically depend on geological conditions such as continental positions. The study illustrates how models designed for studying future climate change can capture past paleo events, such as the PETM, and how modern day geological conditions may affect climate and carbon cycle sensitivities.

Assessing Students' Disciplinary and Interdisciplinary Understanding of Global Carbon Cycling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

You, Hye Sun; Marshall, Jill A.; Delgado, Cesar

2018-01-01

Global carbon cycling describes the movement of carbon through atmosphere, biosphere, geosphere, and hydrosphere; it lies at the heart of climate change and sustainability. To understand the global carbon cycle, students will require "interdisciplinary knowledge." While standards documents in science education have long promoted…

Which 100-kyr Cycle?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, A.; Loutre, M. F.; Mélice, J. L.

The origin of all the fundamental frequencies characterising the long term variations of the astronomical parameters has been identified. This allows to discuss their inter- relationship and possible changes in times. Different sources for the so-called 100-kyr cycle have been found in the astronomical parameters and in the insolation itself. The most popular 100-kyr cycle is certainly the eccentricity one. Actually, the periods of the most important spectral components of e used in Berger (1978) are 412 885, 14 945, 123 297, 99 590 and 131 248 yr. Instability of the resulting average 100-kyr cy- cle has been shown related to the ~ 400-kyr cycle. The derivative of eccentricity is definitely showing a spectrum dominated by the 100-kyr cycle with the same spectral components as e itself. The inclination of the Earth orbital plane on the ecliptic does not display any 100-kyr cycle, but it is not the case for its inclination on the reference plane for which cycles of 98 046 and 107 478 years appear. Finally the frequency modulation of obliquity is characterised by cycles 171 kyr and 97 kyr long. For inso- lation, it is known that there is only a very weak signal around 100-kyr coming from e itself. However, if we consider the seasonal cycle at the equator, its amplitude varies with cycles of 400 kyr, 100 kyr, 41 kyr, 10 kyr and 5 kyr, all related to e. Although all these cycles are close to the 100 kyr cycle found in geological data, the origin of this kind of cycle can be best identified by comparing the proxy record to the re- sponse of the climate system to the astronomical forcing. This forcing signal which contains, in one way or another, the astronomical characteristics mentioned above is, at least, partly distorted and transformed, a modification which can only be estimated through climate models. Such a climate model has been developed in the early 80Ss in Louvain-la-Neuve and used since to simulate the last and next glacial-interglacial cycles.

Climate Change, Soils, and Human Health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brevik, Eric C.

2013-04-01

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, global temperatures are expected to increase 1.1 to 6.4 degrees C during the 21st century and precipitation patterns will be altered by climate change (IPCC, 2007). Soils are intricately linked to the atmospheric/climate system through the carbon, nitrogen, and hydrologic cycles. Altered climate will, therefore, have an effect on soil processes and properties. Studies into the effects of climate change on soil processes and properties are still incomplete, but have revealed that climate change will impact soil organic matter dynamics including soil organisms and the multiple soil properties that are tied to organic matter, soil water, and soil erosion. The exact direction and magnitude of those impacts will be dependent on the amount of change in atmospheric gases, temperature, and precipitation amounts and patterns. Recent studies give reason to believe at least some soils may become net sources of atmospheric carbon as temperatures rise; this is particularly true of high latitude regions with permanently frozen soils. Soil erosion by both wind and water is also likely to increase. These soil changes will lead to both direct and indirect impacts on human health. Possible indirect impacts include temperature extremes, food safety and air quality issues, increased and/or expanded disease incidences, and occupational health issues. Potential direct impacts include decreased food security and increased atmospheric dust levels. However, there are still many things we need to know more about. How climate change will affect the nitrogen cycle and, in turn, how the nitrogen cycle will affect carbon sequestration in soils is a major research need, as is a better understanding of soil water-CO2 level-temperature relationships. Knowledge of the response of plants to elevated atmospheric CO2 given limitations in nutrients like nitrogen and phosphorus and how that affects soil organic matter dynamics is a critical need. There is also a great need for a better understanding of how soil organisms will respond to climate change because those organisms are incredibly important in a number of soil processes, including the carbon and nitrogen cycles. All of these questions are important in trying to understand human health impacts. More information on climate change, soils, and human health issues can be found in Brevik (2012). References Brevik, E.C. 2012. Climate change, soils, and human health. In: E.C. Brevik and L. Burgess (Eds). Soils and human health. CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL. in press. IPCC. 2007. Summary for policymakers. pp. 1-18. In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds). Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Impacts of fire and climate change on long-term nitrogen availability and forest productivity in the New Jersey Pine Barrens

Treesearch

Melissa S. Lucash; Robert M. Scheller; Alec M. Kretchun; Kenneth L. Clark; John Hom

2014-01-01

Increased wildfires and temperatures due to climate change are expected to have profound effects on forest productivity and nitrogen (N) cycling. Forecasts about how wildfire and climate change will affect forests seldom consider N availability, which may limit forest response to climate change, particularly in fire-prone landscapes. The overall objective of this study...

Earth system model simulations show different feedback strengths of the terrestrial carbon cycle under glacial and interglacial conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adloff, Markus; Reick, Christian H.; Claussen, Martin

2018-04-01

In simulations with the MPI Earth System Model, we study the feedback between the terrestrial carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 concentrations under ice age and interglacial conditions. We find different sensitivities of terrestrial carbon storage to rising CO2 concentrations in the two settings. This result is obtained by comparing the transient response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to a fast and strong atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (roughly 900 ppm) in Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP)-type simulations starting from climates representing the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and pre-industrial times (PI). In this set-up we disentangle terrestrial contributions to the feedback from the carbon-concentration effect, acting biogeochemically via enhanced photosynthetic productivity when CO2 concentrations increase, and the carbon-climate effect, which affects the carbon cycle via greenhouse warming. We find that the carbon-concentration effect is larger under LGM than PI conditions because photosynthetic productivity is more sensitive when starting from the lower, glacial CO2 concentration and CO2 fertilization saturates later. This leads to a larger productivity increase in the LGM experiment. Concerning the carbon-climate effect, it is the PI experiment in which land carbon responds more sensitively to the warming under rising CO2 because at the already initially higher temperatures, tropical plant productivity deteriorates more strongly and extratropical carbon is respired more effectively. Consequently, land carbon losses increase faster in the PI than in the LGM case. Separating the carbon-climate and carbon-concentration effects, we find that they are almost additive for our model set-up; i.e. their synergy is small in the global sum of carbon changes. Together, the two effects result in an overall strength of the terrestrial carbon cycle feedback that is almost twice as large in the LGM experiment as in the PI experiment. For PI, ocean and land contributions to the total feedback are of similar size, while in the LGM case the terrestrial feedback is dominant.

Sources and sinks of carbon in boreal ecosystems of interior Alaska: a review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Douglas, Thomas A.; Jones, Miriam C.; Hiemstra, Christopher A.

2014-01-01

Boreal regions store large quantities of carbon but are increasingly vulnerable to carbon loss due to disturbance and climate warming. The boreal region, underlain by discontinuous permafrost, presents a challenging landscape for itemizing current and potential carbon sources and sinks in the boreal soil and vegetation. The roles of fire, forest succession, and the presence (or absence) of permafrost on carbon cycle, vegetation, and hydrologic processes have been the focus of multidisciplinary research in this area for the past 20 years. However, projections of a warming future climate, an increase in fire severity and extent, and the potential degradation of permafrost could lead to major landscape process changes over the next 20 to 50 years. This provides a major challenge for predicting how the interplay between land management activities and impacts of climate warming will affect carbon sources and sinks in Interior Alaska. To assist land managers in adapting and managing for potential changes in the Interior Alaska carbon cycle we developed this review paper incorporating an overview of the climate, ecosystem processes, vegetation types, and soil regimes in Interior Alaska with a focus on ramifications for the carbon cycle. Our objective is to provide a synthesis of the most current carbon storage estimates and measurements to support policy and land management decisions on how to best manage carbon sources and sinks in Interior Alaska. To support this we have surveyed relevant peer reviewed estimates of carbon stocks in aboveground and belowground biomass for Interior Alaska boreal ecosystems. We have also summarized methane and carbon dioxide fluxes from the same ecosystems. These data have been converted into the same units to facilitate comparison across ecosystem compartments. We identify potential changes in the carbon cycle with climate change and human disturbance including how compounding disturbances can affect the boreal system. Finally, we provide recommendations to address the challenges facing land managers in efforts to manage carbon cycle processes. The results of this study can be used for carbon cycle management in other locations within the boreal biome which encompass a broad distribution from 45° to 83° north.

Climate change and carbon-cycling during the latest Cretaceous-Early Paleogene; a new 13.5 million year-long, orbital-resolution, stable isotope record from the South Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnet, J.; Littler, K.; Kroon, D.; Leng, M. J.; Westerhold, T.; Roehl, U.; Zachos, J. C.

2017-12-01

The "greenhouse" world of the latest Cretaceous-Early Paleogene ( 70-34 Ma) was characterised by multi-million year variability in climate and the carbon-cycle. Throughout this interval the pervasive imprint of orbital-cyclicity, particularly eccentricity and precession, is visible in elemental and stable isotope data obtained from multiple deep-sea sites. Periodic "hyperthermal" events, occurring largely in-step with these orbital cycles, have proved particularly enigmatic, and may be the closest, albeit imperfect, analogues for anthropogenic climate change. This project utilises CaCO3-rich marine sediments recovered from ODP Site 1262 at a paleo-depth of 3600 m on the Walvis Ridge, South Atlantic, of late Maastrichtian-mid Paleocene age ( 67-60 Ma). We have derived high-resolution (2.5-4 kyr) carbon and oxygen isotope data from the epifaunal benthic foraminifera species Nuttallides truempyi. Combining the new record with the existing Late Paleocene-Early Eocene record generated from the same site by Littler et al. (2014), yields a single-site reference curve detailing 13.5 million years of orbital cyclicity in paleoclimate and carbon cycle from the latest Cretaceous to near the peak warmth of the Early Paleogene greenhouse. Spectral analysis of this new combined dataset allows us to identify long (405-kyr) eccentricity, short (100-kyr) eccentricity, and precession (19-23-kyr) as the principle forcing mechanisms governing pacing of the background climate and carbon-cycle during this time period, with a comparatively weak obliquity (41-kyr) signal. Cross-spectral analysis suggests that changes in climate lead the carbon cycle throughout most of the record, emphasising the role of the release of temperature-sensitive carbon stores as a positive feedback to an initial warming induced by changes in orbital configuration. The expression of comparatively understudied Early Paleocene events, including the Dan-C2 Event, Latest Danian Event, and Danian/Selandian Transition Event, are also identified within this new record, confirming the global nature and orbital pacing of the Latest Danian Event and Danian/Selandian Transition Event, but questioning the Dan-C2 event as a global hyperthermal.

Complex life cycles and the responses of insects to climate change.

PubMed

Kingsolver, Joel G; Woods, H Arthur; Buckley, Lauren B; Potter, Kristen A; MacLean, Heidi J; Higgins, Jessica K

2011-11-01

Many organisms have complex life cycles with distinct life stages that experience different environmental conditions. How does the complexity of life cycles affect the ecological and evolutionary responses of organisms to climate change? We address this question by exploring several recent case studies and synthetic analyses of insects. First, different life stages may inhabit different microhabitats, and may differ in their thermal sensitivities and other traits that are important for responses to climate. For example, the life stages of Manduca experience different patterns of thermal and hydric variability, and differ in tolerance to high temperatures. Second, life stages may differ in their mechanisms for adaptation to local climatic conditions. For example, in Colias, larvae in different geographic populations and species adapt to local climate via differences in optimal and maximal temperatures for feeding and growth, whereas adults adapt via differences in melanin of the wings and in other morphological traits. Third, we extend a recent analysis of the temperature-dependence of insect population growth to demonstrate how changes in temperature can differently impact juvenile survival and adult reproduction. In both temperate and tropical regions, high rates of adult reproduction in a given environment may not be realized if occasional, high temperatures prevent survival to maturity. This suggests that considering the differing responses of multiple life stages is essential to understand the ecological and evolutionary consequences of climate change. © The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved.

Geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence support a solar-output model for climate change

PubMed Central

Perry, Charles A.; Hsu, Kenneth J.

2000-01-01

Although the processes of climate change are not completely understood, an important causal candidate is variation in total solar output. Reported cycles in various climate-proxy data show a tendency to emulate a fundamental harmonic sequence of a basic solar-cycle length (11 years) multiplied by 2N (where N equals a positive or negative integer). A simple additive model for total solar-output variations was developed by superimposing a progression of fundamental harmonic cycles with slightly increasing amplitudes. The timeline of the model was calibrated to the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary at 9,000 years before present. The calibrated model was compared with geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence of warm or cold climates during the Holocene. The evidence of periods of several centuries of cooler climates worldwide called “little ice ages,” similar to the period anno Domini (A.D.) 1280–1860 and reoccurring approximately every 1,300 years, corresponds well with fluctuations in modeled solar output. A more detailed examination of the climate sensitive history of the last 1,000 years further supports the model. Extrapolation of the model into the future suggests a gradual cooling during the next few centuries with intermittent minor warmups and a return to near little-ice-age conditions within the next 500 years. This cool period then may be followed approximately 1,500 years from now by a return to altithermal conditions similar to the previous Holocene Maximum. PMID:11050181

Arctic systems in the Quaternary: ecological collision, faunal mosaics and the consequences of a wobbling climate.

PubMed

Hoberg, E P; Cook, J A; Agosta, S J; Boeger, W; Galbreath, K E; Laaksonen, S; Kutz, S J; Brooks, D R

2017-07-01

Climate oscillations and episodic processes interact with evolution, ecology and biogeography to determine the structure and complex mosaic that is the biosphere. Parasites and parasite-host assemblages are key components in a general explanatory paradigm for global biodiversity. We explore faunal assembly in the context of Quaternary time frames of the past 2.6 million years, a period dominated by episodic shifts in climate. Climate drivers cross a continuum from geological to contemporary timescales and serve to determine the structure and distribution of complex biotas. Cycles within cycles are apparent, with drivers that are layered, multifactorial and complex. These cycles influence the dynamics and duration of shifts in environmental structure on varying temporal and spatial scales. An understanding of the dynamics of high-latitude systems, the history of the Beringian nexus (the intermittent land connection linking Eurasia and North America) and downstream patterns of diversity depend on teasing apart the complexity of biotic assembly and persistence. Although climate oscillations have dominated the Quaternary, contemporary dynamics are driven by tipping points and shifting balances emerging from anthropogenic forces that are disrupting ecological structure. Climate change driven by anthropogenic forcing has supplanted a history of episodic variation and is eliminating ecological barriers and constraints on development and distribution for pathogen transmission. A framework to explore interactions of episodic processes on faunal structure and assembly is the Stockholm Paradigm, which appropriately shifts the focus from cospeciation to complexity and contingency in explanations of diversity.

Orbital Drivers of Climate Change on Earth and Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zent, A. P.

Oscillations of orbital elements and spin axis orientation affect the climate of both Earth and Mars by redistributing solar power both latitudinally and seasonally, often resulting in secondary changes in reflected and emitted radiation (radiative forcing). Multiple feedback loops between different climatic elements operate on both planets, with the result that climate response is generally nonlinear with simple changes in solar energy. Both insolation history and geochemical climate proxies can be treated as time series data, and analyzed in terms of component frequencies. The correspondence between frequencies measured in climate proxies and orbital oscillations is the key to relating orbital cause and climatic effect. Discussions of both Earth and Mars focus on the last 5-10 m.y., because this is the period in which the orbital history and geologic record are best understood. The terrestrial climate is an extraordinarily complex system, and a vast amount of data is available for analysis. While the geologic record strongly supports the role of Milankovitch cycles as the underlying cause of glacial cycles, orbitally driven insolation changes alone cannot explain the observations in detail. Early Pleistocene glacial cycles responded linearly to the 41-k.y. oscillations in obliquity. However, over the last 1 m.y., glacial/interglacial oscillations have become more extreme as the climate has cooled. Long cooling intervals marked by an oscillating buildup of ice sheets are now followed by brief, intense periods of warming. At the same time, glacial/interglacial cycles have shifted from 41 k.y. to ~100 k.y. No such changes occurred in the solar forcing due to orbital oscillations. While orbital oscillations still appear to pace glacial cycles, their subtle interplay with ice-sheet dynamics and shifts in ocean circulation have come to dominate the late Pleistocene climate system. In contrast to Earth, the martian climate is ostensibly a much simpler system about which we have almost no quantitative data. Lacking climate proxies and chronological data, we are forced to rely on climate modeling and whatever constraints can be extracted from the predominantly remote sensing data available. Obliquity oscillations account for most of the power in historical insolation. Unfortunately, the last 5 m.y. are an anomalous period in Mars' climate history due to a secular decrease in Mars' obliquity. Subsequent to that, however, models and observations are consistent with the hypothesis that during periods of higher obliquity, enhanced polar summer insolation increases atmospheric water vapor and dust content, and ice stability shifted toward the equator. Polar caps become thermodynamically unstable, and much of the surface H2O inventory migrates from high latitudes to the tropics. As obliquity decreases, ice returns to the poles, leaving unstable ice-rich deposits in the mid latitudes that are mantled by dust. Low-obliquity periods entail — at least on occasion — collapse of the atmosphere onto the poles and high-latitude CO2 glaciers. During protracted nodes in obliquity, mid-latitude ice undergoes slow but sustained sublimation and redistribution to the poles. Because of the tremendous breadth of the subject matter, this chapter necessarily presents a high-level overview, and the reader will be compelled to investigate the copious references for a more rigorous explanation of most topics.

Multiscale assessment of water limitations on forest carbon cycling in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berner, L. T.; Law, B. E.

2016-12-01

Water is a key environmental constraint on carbon uptake, storage, and release by forests in the western United States. Climate in this region is becoming warmer and drier, thus highlighting the need to better understand how forest carbon cycling responds to variation in water availability. Here, we describe how forest carbon cycling varied spatially along local to regional gradients in climatic water availability. We examined local variation in net primary productivity (NPP) and aboveground biomass (AGB) using 12 intensive field plots in Oregon's Cascade Mountains. Regional analysis of forest NPP and AGB was based on federal forest inventories (>8,000 plots) in Washington, Oregon, and California, multiple biomass maps and MODIS NPP (2003-2012). We also quantified annual forest AGB mortality due to bark beetles and fires across the region from 2003-2012 by combining several disturbance and biomass data sets. Over each spatial extent, forest NPP and AGB increased curvilinearly with average growing-year climate moisture index, computed as the cumulative difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration from October-September and averaged over preceding decades. Thus, climatic water availability strongly constrains forest carbon uptake and storage, particularly in the driest areas, but also in the wettest. Forest AGB mortality rates from bark beetles and fires peaked in moderately dry forests and then declining rapidly in the wettest areas. Annual forest AGB mortality from bark beetles was about twice as high as from fires. Bark beetle impacts were most pronounced in the Rock Mountains, while fire impacts were most pronounced in western portion of the region. Our multiscale analysis based on field inventory and remote sensing data sets demonstrates that climatic water availability is a key environmental constraint on forest carbon cycling in the western US. Consequently, continued warming and drying can be expected to have substantial impacts on forest carbon cycling in this region over the coming century.

Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Science overview and knowledge needs

Treesearch

William T. Sommers; Rachel A. Loehman; Colin C. Hardy

2014-01-01

Wildland fires have influenced the global carbon cycle for 420 million years of Earth history, interacting with climate to define vegetation characteristics and distributions, trigger abrupt ecosystem shifts, and move carbon among terrestrial and atmospheric pools. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the dominant driver of ongoing climate change and the principal emissions...

Towards a predictive understanding of belowground process responses to climate change: have we moved any closer?

Treesearch

Elise Pendall; Lindsey Rustad; Josh Schimel

2008-01-01

Belowground processes, including root production and exudation, microbial activity and community dynamics, and biogeochemical cycling interact to help regulate climate change. Feedbacks associated with these processes, such as warming-enhanced decomposition rates, give rise to major uncertainties in predictions of future climate. Uncertainties associated with these...

Embryonic development rates of northern grasshoppers (Orthoptera: Acrididae): implications for climate change and habitat management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Temperature-dependent rates of embryonic development are a primary determinant of the life cycle of many species of grasshoppers which, in cold climates, spend two winters in the egg stage. Knowledge of embryonic developmental rates is important for an assessment of the effects of climate change and...

Effects of climatic conditions and management practices on agricultural carbon and water budgets in the Inland Pacific Northwest USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cropland is an important land cover influencing global carbon and water cycles. Variability of agricultural carbon and water fluxes depends on crop species, management practices, soil characteristics, and climatic conditions. In the context of climate change, it is critical to quantify the long-term...

Experimental and observational studies find contrasting responses of soil nutrients to climate change

PubMed Central

Yuan, ZY; Jiao, F; Shi, XR; Sardans, Jordi; Maestre, Fernando T; Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Reich, Peter B; Peñuelas, Josep

2017-01-01

Manipulative experiments and observations along environmental gradients, the two most common approaches to evaluate the impacts of climate change on nutrient cycling, are generally assumed to produce similar results, but this assumption has rarely been tested. We did so by conducting a meta-analysis and found that soil nutrients responded differentially to drivers of climate change depending on the approach considered. Soil carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus concentrations generally decreased with water addition in manipulative experiments but increased with annual precipitation along environmental gradients. Different patterns were also observed between warming experiments and temperature gradients. Our findings provide evidence of inconsistent results and suggest that manipulative experiments may be better predictors of the causal impacts of short-term (months to years) climate change on soil nutrients but environmental gradients may provide better information for long-term correlations (centuries to millennia) between these nutrients and climatic features. Ecosystem models should consequently incorporate both experimental and observational data to properly assess the impacts of climate change on nutrient cycling. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.23255.001 PMID:28570219

Characterizing Organic Aerosol Processes and Climatically Relevant Properties via Advanced and Integrated Analyses of Aerosol Mass Spectrometry Datasets from DOE Campaigns and ACRF Measurements. Final report for DE-SC0007178

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Qi

Organic aerosols (OA) are an important but poorly characterized component of the earth’s climate system. Enormous complexities commonly associated with OA composition and life cycle processes have significantly complicated the simulation and quantification of aerosol effects. To unravel these complexities and improve understanding of the properties, sources, formation, evolution processes, and radiative properties of atmospheric OA, we propose to perform advanced and integrated analyses of multiple DOE aerosol mass spectrometry datasets, including two high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-AMS) datasets from intensive field campaigns on the aerosol life cycle and the Aerosol Chemical Speciation Monitor (ACSM) datasets from long-term routinemore » measurement programs at ACRF sites. In this project, we will focus on 1) characterizing the chemical (i.e., composition, organic elemental ratios), physical (i.e., size distribution and volatility), and radiative (i.e., sub- and super-saturated growth) properties of organic aerosols, 2) examining the correlations of these properties with different source and process regimes (e.g., primary, secondary, urban, biogenic, biomass burning, marine, or mixtures), 3) quantifying the evolutions of these properties as a function of photochemical processing, 4) identifying and characterizing special cases for important processes such as SOA formation and new particle formation and growth, and 5) correlating size-resolved aerosol chemistry with measurements of radiative properties of aerosols to determine the climatically relevant properties of OA and characterize the relationship between these properties and processes of atmospheric aerosol organics. Our primary goal is to improve a process-level understanding of the life cycle of organic aerosols in the Earth’s atmosphere. We will also aim at bridging between observations and models via synthesizing and translating the results and insights generated from this research into data products and formulations that may be directly used to inform, improve, and evaluate regional and global models. In addition, we will continue our current very active collaborations with several modeling groups to enhance the use and interpretation of our data products. Overall, this research will contribute new data to improve quantification of the aerosol’s effects on climate and thus the achievement of ASR’s science goal of – “improving the fidelity and predictive capability of global climate models”.« less

The 1994 Arctic Ocean Section. The First Major Scientific Crossing of the Arctic Ocean,

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-09-01

contribute to the international effort to better understand the role of the Arctic Ocean in the global carbon cycle and climate change. Summar...Barium Distributions in the Arctic Ocean ? ........................ 32 Biology and the Carbon Cycle Cycling of Organic Carbon in the Central Arctic...of Heterotrophic Bacteria and Protists in the Arctic Ocean Carbon Cycle............. 40

Limit Cycles Can Reduce the Width of the Habitable Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haqq-Misra, Jacob; Kopparapu, Ravi Kumar; Batalha, Natasha E.; Harman, Chester E.; Kasting, James F.

2016-08-01

The liquid water habitable zone (HZ) describes the orbital distance at which a terrestrial planet can maintain above-freezing conditions through regulation by the carbonate-silicate cycle. Recent calculations have suggested that planets in the outer regions of the HZ cannot maintain stable, warm climates, but rather should oscillate between long, globally glaciated states and shorter periods of climatic warmth. Such conditions, similar to “Snowball Earth” episodes experienced on Earth, would be inimical to the development of complex land life, including intelligent life. Here, we build on previous studies with an updated energy balance climate model to calculate this “limit cycle” region of the HZ where such cycling would occur. We argue that an abiotic Earth would have a greater CO2 partial pressure than today because plants and other biota help to enhance the storage of CO2 in soil. When we tune our abiotic model accordingly, we find that limit cycles can occur but that previous calculations have overestimated their importance. For G stars like the Sun, limit cycles occur only for planets with CO2 outgassing rates less than that on modern Earth. For K- and M-star planets, limit cycles should not occur; however, M-star planets may be inhospitable to life for other reasons. Planets orbiting late G-type and early K-type stars retain the greatest potential for maintaining warm, stable conditions. Our results suggest that host star type, planetary volcanic activity, and seafloor weathering are all important factors in determining whether planets will be prone to limit cycling.

Proterozoic Milankovitch cycles and the history of the solar system.

PubMed

Meyers, Stephen R; Malinverno, Alberto

2018-06-19

The geologic record of Milankovitch climate cycles provides a rich conceptual and temporal framework for evaluating Earth system evolution, bestowing a sharp lens through which to view our planet's history. However, the utility of these cycles for constraining the early Earth system is hindered by seemingly insurmountable uncertainties in our knowledge of solar system behavior (including Earth-Moon history), and poor temporal control for validation of cycle periods (e.g., from radioisotopic dates). Here we address these problems using a Bayesian inversion approach to quantitatively link astronomical theory with geologic observation, allowing a reconstruction of Proterozoic astronomical cycles, fundamental frequencies of the solar system, the precession constant, and the underlying geologic timescale, directly from stratigraphic data. Application of the approach to 1.4-billion-year-old rhythmites indicates a precession constant of 85.79 ± 2.72 arcsec/year (2σ), an Earth-Moon distance of 340,900 ± 2,600 km (2σ), and length of day of 18.68 ± 0.25 hours (2σ), with dominant climatic precession cycles of ∼14 ky and eccentricity cycles of ∼131 ky. The results confirm reduced tidal dissipation in the Proterozoic. A complementary analysis of Eocene rhythmites (∼55 Ma) illustrates how the approach offers a means to map out ancient solar system behavior and Earth-Moon history using the geologic archive. The method also provides robust quantitative uncertainties on the eccentricity and climatic precession periods, and derived astronomical timescales. As a consequence, the temporal resolution of ancient Earth system processes is enhanced, and our knowledge of early solar system dynamics is greatly improved.