Polygons on Crater Floor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2003-01-01

MGS MOC Release No. MOC2-357, 11 May 2003

This Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) picture shows a pattern of polygons on the floor of a northern plains impact crater. These landforms are common on crater floors at high latitudes on Mars. Similar polygons occur in the arctic and antarctic regions of Earth, where they indicate the presence and freeze-thaw cycling of ground ice. Whether the polygons on Mars also indicate water ice in the ground is uncertain. The image is located in a crater at 64.8oN, 292.7oW. Sunlight illuminates the scene from the lower left.

Sedimentary evidence for enhanced hydrological cycling in response to rapid carbon release during the early Toarcian oceanic anoxic event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izumi, Kentaro; Kemp, David B.; Itamiya, Shoma; Inui, Mutsuko

2018-01-01

A pronounced excursion in the carbon-isotope composition of biospheric carbon and coeval seawater warming during the early Toarcian (∼183 Ma) has been linked to the large-scale transfer of 12C-enriched carbon to the oceans and atmosphere. A European bias in the distribution of available data means that the precise pattern, tempo and global expression of this carbon cycle perturbation, and the associated environmental responses, remain uncertain. Here, we present a new cm-scale terrestrial-dominated carbon-isotope record through an expanded lower Toarcian section from Japan that displays a negative excursion pattern similar to marine and terrestrial carbon-isotope records documented from Europe. These new data suggest that 12C-enriched carbon was added to the biosphere in at least one rapid, millennial-scale pulse. Sedimentological analysis indicates a close association between the carbon-isotope excursion and high-energy sediment transport and enhanced fluvial discharge. Together, these data support the hypothesis that a sudden strengthening of the global hydrological cycle occurred in direct and immediate response to rapid carbon release and atmospheric warming.

Remote sensing data assimilation for a prognostic phenology model

Treesearch

R. Stockli; T. Rutishauser; D. Dragoni; J. O' Keefe; P. E. Thornton; M. Jolly; L. Lu; A. S. Denning

2008-01-01

Predicting the global carbon and water cycle requires a realistic representation of vegetation phenology in climate models. However most prognostic phenology models are not yet suited for global applications, and diagnostic satellite data can be uncertain and lack predictive power. We present a framework for data assimilation of Fraction of Photosynthetically Active...

From Child Maltreatment to Violent Offending: An Examination of Mixed-Gender and Gender-Specific Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Topitzes, James; Mersky, Joshua P.; Reynolds, Arthur J.

2012-01-01

Research suggests that child maltreatment predicts juvenile violence, but it is uncertain whether the effects of victimization persist into adulthood or differ across gender. Furthermore, we know little about the mechanisms underlying the victim-perpetrator cycle for males and females. Consequently, this study analyzed associations between child…

Forest ecosystem changes from annual methane source to sink depending on late summer water balance

Treesearch

Julie K. Shoemaker; Trevor F. Keenan; David Y. Hollinger; Andrew D. Richardson

2014-01-01

Forests dominate the global carbon cycle, but their role in methane (CH4) biogeochemistry remains uncertain. We analyzed whole-ecosystem CH4 fluxes from 2 years, obtained over a lowland evergreen forest in Maine, USA. Gross primary productivity provided the strongest correlation with the CH4 flux in...

Exploring the microbially-mediated soil H2 sink: A lab-based study of the physiology and related H2 consumption of isolates from the Harvard Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, D.; Meredith, L. K.; Bosak, T.; Hansel, C. M.; Ono, S.; Prinn, R. G.

2012-12-01

Atmospheric hydrogen (H2) is a secondary greenhouse gas because it attenuates the removal of methane (CH4) from the atmosphere. The largest and most uncertain term in the H2 biogeochemical cycle, microbe-mediated soil uptake, is responsible for about 80% of Earth's tropospheric H2 sink. Recently, the first H2-oxidizing soil microorganisms were discovered (genus Streptomyces) whose low-threshold, high-affinity NiFe-hydrogenase functions at ambient H2 levels (approx. 530 ppb). To better understand the ecological function of this hydrogenase, we conducted a controlled laboratory study of the H2 uptake behavior in accordance with the complex life cycle development of the streptomycetes. Several strains of the genus Streptomyces containing a high-affinity NiFe- hydrogenase were isolated from soil at the Harvard Forest. The presence of this hydrogenase, detected by PCR amplification of the hydrogenase large subunit, predicted H2 uptake behavior in wild-type streptomycetes and in phylogenetically different organisms containing more distantly related versions of the gene. H2 uptake depended on the streptomyces' life cycle, reaching a maximum during spore formation. These findings reveal connections between environmental conditions, organismal life cycle, and H2 uptake. With the rise of H2-based energy sources and a potential change in the tropospheric concentration of H2, understanding the sources and sinks of this trace gas is important for the future.

The future of the North American carbon cycle - projections and associated climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntzinger, D. N.; Chatterjee, A.; Cooley, S. R.; Dunne, J. P.; Hoffman, F. M.; Luo, Y.; Moore, D. J.; Ohrel, S. B.; Poulter, B.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Tzortziou, M.; Walker, A. P.; Mayes, M. A.

2016-12-01

Approximately half of anthropogenic emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is taken up annually by carbon sinks on the land and in the oceans. However, there are key uncertainties in how carbon uptake by terrestrial, ocean, and freshwater systems will respond to, and interact with, climate into the future. Here, we outline the current state of understanding on the future carbon budget of these major reservoirs within North America and the globe. We examine the drivers of future carbon cycle changes, including carbon-climate feedbacks, atmospheric composition, nutrient availability, and human activity and management decisions. Progress has been made at identifying vulnerabilities in carbon pools, including high-latitude permafrost, peatlands, freshwater and coastal wetlands, and ecosystems subject to disturbance events, such as insects, fire and drought. However, many of these processes/pools are not well represented in current models, and model intercomparison studies have shown a range in carbon cycle response to factors such as climate and CO2 fertilization. Furthermore, as model complexity increases, understanding the drivers of model spread becomes increasingly more difficult. As a result, uncertainties in future carbon cycle projections are large. It is also uncertain how management decisions and policies will impact future carbon stocks and flows. In order to guide policy, a better understanding of the risk and magnitude of North American carbon cycle changes is needed. This requires that future carbon cycle projections be conditioned on current observations and be reported with sufficient confidence and fully specified uncertainties.

Uncertain Environmental Footprint of Current and Future Battery Electric Vehicles.

PubMed

Cox, Brian; Mutel, Christopher L; Bauer, Christian; Mendoza Beltran, Angelica; van Vuuren, Detlef P

2018-04-17

The future environmental impacts of battery electric vehicles (EVs) are very important given their expected dominance in future transport systems. Previous studies have shown these impacts to be highly uncertain, though a detailed treatment of this uncertainty is still lacking. We help to fill this gap by using Monte Carlo and global sensitivity analysis to quantify parametric uncertainty and also consider two additional factors that have not yet been addressed in the field. First, we include changes to driving patterns due to the introduction of autonomous and connected vehicles. Second, we deeply integrate scenario results from the IMAGE integrated assessment model into our life cycle database to include the impacts of changes to the electricity sector on the environmental burdens of producing and recharging future EVs. Future EVs are expected to have 45-78% lower climate change impacts than current EVs. Electricity used for charging is the largest source of variability in results, though vehicle size, lifetime, driving patterns, and battery size also strongly contribute to variability. We also show that it is imperative to consider changes to the electricity sector when calculating upstream impacts of EVs, as without this, results could be overestimated by up to 75%.

Quantifying Anthropogenic Dust Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, Nicholas P.; Pierre, Caroline

2018-02-01

Anthropogenic land use and land cover change, including local environmental disturbances, moderate rates of wind-driven soil erosion and dust emission. These human-dust cycle interactions impact ecosystems and agricultural production, air quality, human health, biogeochemical cycles, and climate. While the impacts of land use activities and land management on aeolian processes can be profound, the interactions are often complex and assessments of anthropogenic dust loads at all scales remain highly uncertain. Here, we critically review the drivers of anthropogenic dust emission and current evaluation approaches. We then identify and describe opportunities to: (1) develop new conceptual frameworks and interdisciplinary approaches that draw on ecological state-and-transition models to improve the accuracy and relevance of assessments of anthropogenic dust emissions; (2) improve model fidelity and capacity for change detection to quantify anthropogenic impacts on aeolian processes; and (3) enhance field research and monitoring networks to support dust model applications to evaluate the impacts of disturbance processes on local to global-scale wind erosion and dust emissions.

Immunogenicity of West Nile virus infectious DNA and its noninfectious derivatives

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seregin, Alexey; Nistler, Ryan; Borisevich, Victoria

2006-12-20

The exceptionally high virulence of the West Nile NY99 strain makes its suitability in the development of a live WN vaccine uncertain. The aim of this study is to investigate the immunogenicity of noninfectious virus derivatives carrying pseudolethal mutations, which preclude virion formation without affecting preceding steps of the viral infectious cycle. When administered using DNA immunization, such constructs initiate an infectious cycle but cannot lead to a viremia. While the magnitude of the immune response to a noninfectious replication-competent construct was lower than that of virus or infectious DNA, its overall quality and the protective effect were similar. Inmore » contrast, a nonreplicating construct of similar length induced only a marginally detectable immune response in the dose range used. Thus, replication-competent noninfectious constructs derived from infectious DNA may offer an advantageous combination of the safety of noninfectious formulations with the quality of the immune response characteristic of infectious vaccines.« less

Structural changes in the hot Algol OGLE-LMC-DPV-097 and its disc related to its long cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcés L, J.; Mennickent, R. E.; Djurašević, G.; Poleski, R.; Soszyński, I.

2018-06-01

Double Periodic Variables (DPVs) are hot Algols showing a long photometric cycle of uncertain origin. We report the discovery of changes in the orbital light curve of OGLE-LMC-DPV-097 which depend on the phase of its long photometric cycle. During the ascending branch of the long cycle the brightness at the first quadrature is larger than during the second quadrature, during the maximum of the long cycle the brightness is basically the same at both quadratures, during the descending branch the brightness at the second quadrature is larger than during the first quadrature, and during the minimum of the long cycle the secondary minimum disappears. We model the light curve at different phases of the long cycle and find that the data are consistent with changes in the properties of the accretion disc and two disc spots. The disc's size and temperature change with the long-cycle period. We find a smaller and hotter disc at minimum, and larger and cooler disc at maximum. The spot temperatures, locations, and angular sizes also show variability during the long cycle.

Wood CO2 efflux in a primary tropical rain forest

Treesearch

Molly A. Cavaleri; Steven F. Oberbauer; Michael G. Ryan

2006-01-01

The balance between photosynthesis and plant respiration in tropical forests may substantially affect the global carbon cycle. Woody tissue CO2 efflux is a major component of total plant respiration, but estimates of ecosystem-scale rates are uncertain because of poor sampling in the upper canopy and across landscapes. To overcome these problems, we used a portable...

Measuring the Implementation Fidelity of Student Affairs Programs: A Critical Component of the Outcomes Assessment Cycle

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gerstner, Jerusha J.; Finney, Sara J.

2013-01-01

Implementation fidelity assessment provides a means of measuring the alignment between the planned program and the implemented program. Unfortunately, the implemented program can differ from the planned program, resulting in ambiguous inferences about the planned program's effectiveness (i.e., it is uncertain if poor results are due to an…

Demography, environmental uncertainty, and the evolution of mate desertion in the snail kite

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beissinger, S.R.

1986-01-01

The Snail Kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis), an endangered hawk, has a unique mating system in Florida (Beissinger and Snyder 1987): when food is abundant, males or females desert their mates at nearly equal frequency (ambisexual mate desertion) in the midst of a nesting cycle. I examined the demographic and environmental constraints selecting for a clutch size that permits one parent to desert, yet optimizes the number of offspring produced by each parent. Demographic studies, conducted from 1979-1983, indicated that kites have (1) a very high nest failure rate (?= 68%) due most often to unstable nest sites and predation, (2) a variable nesting season (5-10 mo/yr), (3) an early age of first reproduction for a bird this size (10 mo), (4) a high degree of iteroparity (double and potentially triple clutching within a season), and (5) unstable populations. Both nesting success and population size were directly related to Everglades water levels and resultant snail densities. Kites responded to large annual changes in food abundance, not by adjusting clutch size but by deserting their mates and presumably attempting to renest. Kite demographic traits appear to be adaptations to or results of an uncertain environment. Based on 67 yr of Everglades water levels, environmental predictability, measured by spectral analysis and Colwell's (1974) index, was low and influenced by water management regimes: (1) water levels were lowered, (2) annual variation in levels increased and annual cycles became stronger, (3) the period length of long-term drought-flood cycles shifted from 10 or more yr toward 5 yr, and (4) levels became a less predictive cue for favorable nesting conditions. A potential evolutionary pathway from biparental care to mate desertion in Snail Kites is proposed. It is unlikely that mate desertion evolved solely from a context of conflict between the sexes, because kite nesting success is so low that it is probably maladaptive for a parent to desert and jeopardize the survival of any of its first brood. Instead, mate desertion behavior probably evolved in response to a smaller average clutch size; this would allow females to be highly iteroparous and avoid the costs of overinvestment, and should be strongly favored in a highly uncertain environment. Analysis of clutches in museum collections suggests that an apparent decline in clutch size may have occurred in Florida during the past century. The potential for ambisexual mate desertion to occur in other vertebrates is during the past century. The potential for ambisexual mate desertion to occur in other vertebrates is examined.

The role of pCO2 in astronomically-paced climate and carbon cycle variations in the Middle Miocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penman, D. E.; Hull, P. M.; Scher, H.; Kirtland Turner, S.; Ridgwell, A.

2017-12-01

The pace of Earth's background climate variability is known to be driven by the Milankovitch cycles, variations in Earth's orbital parameters and axial tilt. While the Milankovitch (orbital) theory of climate change is very nearly universally accepted, the climate system mechanisms and feedbacks responsible for amplifying orbital cycles preserved in the geologic record remain uncertain. For the late Pleistocene, the ice core-derived record of atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) is strongly coupled with global temperature on orbital time scales, indicating that internal feedbacks involving the carbon cycle amplify or even cause the large changes in global temperature during orbitally driven glacial-interglacial cycles. However, for earlier time periods beyond the range of ice cores (the last 800 kyr), it is not possible to directly compare records of pCO2 to orbital climate cycles because there are no high-resolution (orbitally resolved) records of pCO2 before the Pliocene. We address this deficiency with a high-resolution ( 5-10 kyr spacing) record of planktonic foraminiferal d11B-derived surface seawater pH (as well as d13C and trace metal analyses) over a 500 kyr time window in a sedimentary record with known Milankovitch-scale climate and carbon cycle oscillations: the Middle Miocene (14.0 - 14.5 Ma) at ODP Site 926 (subtropical North Atlantic). The resulting pH record can be used to constrain atmospheric pCO2, allowing comparison of the timescale and magnitude of carbon cycle changes during a period of eccentricity-dominated variability in the response of the global climate system (the Late Pleistocene) with a period of obliquity-dominance (the middle Miocene). These new records of planktic d11B and d13C will then be used to guide simulations of astronomical climate forcing in Earth System models, resulting in refined estimates of pCO2 changes over orbital cycles and providing quantitative constraints on the mechanisms and feedbacks responsible for the Milankovitch control of climate and carbon cycling.

Evolution of the genetic machinery of the visual cycle: a novelty of the vertebrate eye?

PubMed

Albalat, Ricard

2012-05-01

The discovery in invertebrates of ciliary photoreceptor cells and ciliary (c)-opsins established that at least two of the three elements that characterize the vertebrate photoreceptor system were already present before vertebrate evolution. However, the origin of the third element, a series of biochemical reactions known as the "retinoid cycle," remained uncertain. To understand the evolution of the retinoid cycle, I have searched for the genetic machinery of the cycle in invertebrate genomes, with special emphasis on the cephalochordate amphioxus. Amphioxus is closely related to vertebrates, has a fairly prototypical genome, and possesses ciliary photoreceptor cells and c-opsins. Phylogenetic and structural analyses of the amphioxus sequences related with the vertebrate machinery do not support a function of amphioxus proteins in chromophore regeneration but suggest that the genetic machinery of the retinoid cycle arose in vertebrates due to duplications of ancestral nonvisual genes. These results favor the hypothesis that the retinoid cycle machinery was a functional innovation of the primitive vertebrate eye.

Linking high harmonics from gases and solids.

PubMed

Vampa, G; Hammond, T J; Thiré, N; Schmidt, B E; Légaré, F; McDonald, C R; Brabec, T; Corkum, P B

2015-06-25

When intense light interacts with an atomic gas, recollision between an ionizing electron and its parent ion creates high-order harmonics of the fundamental laser frequency. This sub-cycle effect generates coherent soft X-rays and attosecond pulses, and provides a means to image molecular orbitals. Recently, high harmonics have been generated from bulk crystals, but what mechanism dominates the emission remains uncertain. To resolve this issue, we adapt measurement methods from gas-phase research to solid zinc oxide driven by mid-infrared laser fields of 0.25 volts per ångström. We find that when we alter the generation process with a second-harmonic beam, the modified harmonic spectrum bears the signature of a generalized recollision between an electron and its associated hole. In addition, we find that solid-state high harmonics are perturbed by fields so weak that they are present in conventional electronic circuits, thus opening a route to integrate electronics with attosecond and high-harmonic technology. Future experiments will permit the band structure of a solid to be tomographically reconstructed.

Two-step sensitivity testing of parametrized and regionalized life cycle assessments: methodology and case study.

PubMed

Mutel, Christopher L; de Baan, Laura; Hellweg, Stefanie

2013-06-04

Comprehensive sensitivity analysis is a significant tool to interpret and improve life cycle assessment (LCA) models, but is rarely performed. Sensitivity analysis will increase in importance as inventory databases become regionalized, increasing the number of system parameters, and parametrized, adding complexity through variables and nonlinear formulas. We propose and implement a new two-step approach to sensitivity analysis. First, we identify parameters with high global sensitivities for further examination and analysis with a screening step, the method of elementary effects. Second, the more computationally intensive contribution to variance test is used to quantify the relative importance of these parameters. The two-step sensitivity test is illustrated on a regionalized, nonlinear case study of the biodiversity impacts from land use of cocoa production, including a worldwide cocoa products trade model. Our simplified trade model can be used for transformable commodities where one is assessing market shares that vary over time. In the case study, the highly uncertain characterization factors for the Ivory Coast and Ghana contributed more than 50% of variance for almost all countries and years examined. The two-step sensitivity test allows for the interpretation, understanding, and improvement of large, complex, and nonlinear LCA systems.

Assessing net ecosystem carbon exchange of U.S. terrestrial ecosystems by integrating eddy covariance flux measurements and satellite observations

Treesearch

Jingfeng Xiaoa; Qianlai Zhuang; Beverly E. Law; Dennis D. Baldocchi; Jiquan Chen; al. et.

2011-01-01

More accurate projections of future carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere and associated climate change depend on improved scientific understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Despite the consensus that U.S. terrestrial ecosystems provide a carbon sink, the size, distribution, and interannual variability of this sink remain uncertain. Here we report a...

Archean evolution of the Leo Rise and its Eburnean reworking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiéblemont, Denis; Goujou, Jean Christian; Egal, Emmanuel; Cocherie, Alain; Delor, Claude; Lafon, Jean Michel; Fanning, C. Mark

2004-06-01

Recent geological mapping in southeastern Guinea, supported by zircon dating, has called into question traditional understanding concerning the evolution of the Leo Rise. Gneiss dated at about 3540 Ma appears to constitute the earliest evidence for continental accretion within the Leo Rise. The existence of a Leonian depositional cycle at about 3000 Ma is confirmed, marked by volcanic and sedimentary rocks that can be correlated with the Loko Group in Sierra Leone. The span of ages (3244-3050 Ma) suggests that the Leonian cycle comprises different episodes whose respective chronology is as yet uncertain. Clearly distinct from the Leonian cycle, the Liberian cycle (˜2900-2800 Ma) is represented in Guinea by granite and migmatite (˜2910-2800 Ma), reflecting remobilization of the ancient Archean basement and deformation of the Leonian rocks; no deposition is associated with this cycle. After the Liberian, the Nimba and Simandou successions, containing Liberian detrital zircons, are assigned to the Birimian (˜2200-2000 Ma). Finally, Eburnean tectonism caused intense deformation of the Archean craton, accompanied by high-grade metamorphism and the intrusion of granite and syenite with ages between 2080 and 2020 Ma. The evolution of the Kénéma-Man domain, attributed to the cumulated effect of the Leonian and Liberian cycles, is thus in part Eburnean. We can suppose, therefore, that the NNE-SSW-trending structures attributed to the Liberian in Sierra Leone are, in fact, Eburnean. The Kambui Supergroup, also affected by this tectonism, should thus be assigned to the Birimian rather than the Liberian, which would explain its similarities with the Nimba and Simandou successions.

Analytically tractable climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lade, Steven J.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Fetzer, Ingo; Anderies, John M.; Beer, Christian; Cornell, Sarah E.; Gasser, Thomas; Norberg, Jon; Richardson, Katherine; Rockström, Johan; Steffen, Will

2018-05-01

Changes to climate-carbon cycle feedbacks may significantly affect the Earth system's response to greenhouse gas emissions. These feedbacks are usually analysed from numerical output of complex and arguably opaque Earth system models. Here, we construct a stylised global climate-carbon cycle model, test its output against comprehensive Earth system models, and investigate the strengths of its climate-carbon cycle feedbacks analytically. The analytical expressions we obtain aid understanding of carbon cycle feedbacks and the operation of the carbon cycle. Specific results include that different feedback formalisms measure fundamentally the same climate-carbon cycle processes; temperature dependence of the solubility pump, biological pump, and CO2 solubility all contribute approximately equally to the ocean climate-carbon feedback; and concentration-carbon feedbacks may be more sensitive to future climate change than climate-carbon feedbacks. Simple models such as that developed here also provide workbenches for simple but mechanistically based explorations of Earth system processes, such as interactions and feedbacks between the planetary boundaries, that are currently too uncertain to be included in comprehensive Earth system models.

Does intolerance of uncertainty predict anticipatory startle responses to uncertain threat?

PubMed

Nelson, Brady D; Shankman, Stewart A

2011-08-01

Intolerance of uncertainty (IU) has been proposed to be an important maintaining factor in several anxiety disorders, including generalized anxiety disorder, obsessive-compulsive disorder, and social phobia. While IU has been shown to predict subjective ratings and decision-making during uncertain/ambiguous situations, few studies have examined whether IU also predicts emotional responding to uncertain threat. The present study examined whether IU predicted aversive responding (startle and subjective ratings) during the anticipation of temporally uncertain shocks. Sixty-nine participants completed three experimental conditions during which they received: no shocks, temporally certain/predictable shocks, and temporally uncertain shocks. Results indicated that IU was negatively associated with startle during the uncertain threat condition in that those with higher IU had a smaller startle response. IU was also only related to startle during the uncertain (and not the certain/predictable) threat condition, suggesting that it was not predictive of general aversive responding, but specific to responses to uncertain aversiveness. Perceived control over anxiety-related events mediated the relation between IU and startle to uncertain threat, such that high IU led to lowered perceived control, which in turn led to a smaller startle response. We discuss several potential explanations for these findings, including the inhibitory qualities of IU. Overall, our results suggest that IU is associated with attenuated aversive responding to uncertain threat. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Acquiring Technical Data With Renewable Real Options

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-30

Development, and Engineering Center, 2009). Faced with diminishing sources for M2 .50 caliber machine gun parts , an Army engineering center entered the...data needed for life cycle sustainment functions such as maintenance or competitive spare parts procurement, but this expectation is more complicated...than it seems (DoD, 2015). The needs and timing for competitive spare parts procurement are uncertain, and changes in system configuration or

How Family Status and Social Security Claiming Options Shape Optimal Life Cycle Portfolios

PubMed Central

Hubener, Andreas; Maurer, Raimond; Mitchell, Olivia S.

2017-01-01

We show how optimal household decisions regarding work, retirement, saving, portfolio allocations, and life insurance are shaped by the complex financial options embedded in U.S. Social Security rules and uncertain family transitions. Our life cycle model predicts sharp consumption drops on retirement, an age-62 peak in claiming rates, and earlier claiming by wives versus husbands and single women. Moreover, life insurance is mainly purchased on men’s lives. Our model, which takes Social Security rules seriously, generates wealth and retirement outcomes that are more consistent with the data, in contrast to earlier and less realistic models. PMID:28659659

Radically New Adsorption Cycles for Carbon Dioxide Sequestration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

James A. Ritter; Armin D. Ebner; James A. McIntyre

2005-10-11

In Parts I and II of this project, a rigorous pressure swing adsorption (PSA) process simulator was used to study new, high temperature, PSA cycles, based on the use of a K-promoted HTlc adsorbent and 4- and 5-step (bed) vacuum swing PSA cycles, which were designed to process a typical stack gas effluent at 575 K containing (in vol%) 15 % CO{sub 2}, 75% N{sub 2} and 10% H{sub 2}O into a light product stream depleted of CO{sub 2} and a heavy product stream enriched in CO{sub 2}. Literally, thousands (2,850) of simulations were carried out to the periodic statemore » to study the effects of the light product purge to feed ratio ({gamma}), cycle step time (t{sub s}) or cycle time (t{sub c}), high to low pressure ratio ({pi}{sub T}), and heavy product recycle ratio (R{sub R}) on the process performance, while changing the cycle configuration from 4- to 5-step (bed) designs utilizing combinations of light and heavy reflux steps, two different depressurization modes, and two sets of CO{sub 2}-HTlc mass transfer coefficients. The process performance was judged in terms of the CO{sub 2} purity and recovery, and the feed throughput. The best process performance was obtained from a 5-step (bed) stripping PSA cycle with a light reflux step and a heavy reflux step (with the heavy reflux gas obtained from the low pressure purge step), with a CO{sub 2} purity of 78.9%, a CO{sub 2} recovery of 57.4%, and a throughput of 11.5 L STP/hr/kg. This performance improved substantially when the CO{sub 2}-HTlc adsorption and desorption mass transfer coefficients (uncertain quantities at this time) were increased by factors of five, with a CO{sub 2} purity of 90.3%, a CO{sub 2} recovery of 73.6%, and a throughput of 34.6 L STP/hr/kg. Overall, this preliminary study disclosed the importance of cycle configuration through the heavy and dual reflux concepts, and the importance of knowing well defined mass transfer coefficients to the performance of a high temperature PSA process for CO{sub 2} capture and concentration from flue and stack gases using an HTlc adsorbent. This study is continuing.« less

Three New Low-Energy Resonances in the 22Ne(p, γ )23Na Reaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavanna, Francesca; Depalo, Rosanna

The neon-sodium (NeNa) cycle drives the synthesis of the elements between 20Ne and 27Al, through a series of proton capture reactions that start from 20Ne, to end with sodium synthesis. This cycle is active in red giant stars (RGB), asymptotic giant branch stars (AGB), in novae as well as in type Ia supernovae. In order to reproduce the observed elemental abundances, the cross sections of the reactions involved in the nucleosynthesis process should be accurately known. The 22Ne(p, γ )23Na reaction rate was very uncertain because of a large number of unobserved resonances lying in the Gamow window. For proton energies below 400 keV, in the literature there were only upper limits for the resonance strengths. A new direct study of the 22Ne(p, γ )23Na reaction has been performed at the Laboratory for Underground Nuclear Astrophysics (LUNA) in Gran Sasso using a windowless gas target and two high-purity germanium detectors. Several resonances have been observed for the first time in a direct experiment.

Vitamin A-Retinoic Acid Signaling Regulates Hematopoietic Stem Cell Dormancy.

PubMed

Cabezas-Wallscheid, Nina; Buettner, Florian; Sommerkamp, Pia; Klimmeck, Daniel; Ladel, Luisa; Thalheimer, Frederic B; Pastor-Flores, Daniel; Roma, Leticia P; Renders, Simon; Zeisberger, Petra; Przybylla, Adriana; Schönberger, Katharina; Scognamiglio, Roberta; Altamura, Sandro; Florian, Carolina M; Fawaz, Malak; Vonficht, Dominik; Tesio, Melania; Collier, Paul; Pavlinic, Dinko; Geiger, Hartmut; Schroeder, Timm; Benes, Vladimir; Dick, Tobias P; Rieger, Michael A; Stegle, Oliver; Trumpp, Andreas

2017-05-18

Dormant hematopoietic stem cells (dHSCs) are atop the hematopoietic hierarchy. The molecular identity of dHSCs and the mechanisms regulating their maintenance or exit from dormancy remain uncertain. Here, we use single-cell RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) analysis to show that the transition from dormancy toward cell-cycle entry is a continuous developmental path associated with upregulation of biosynthetic processes rather than a stepwise progression. In addition, low Myc levels and high expression of a retinoic acid program are characteristic for dHSCs. To follow the behavior of dHSCs in situ, a Gprc5c-controlled reporter mouse was established. Treatment with all-trans retinoic acid antagonizes stress-induced activation of dHSCs by restricting protein translation and levels of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and Myc. Mice maintained on a vitamin A-free diet lose HSCs and show a disrupted re-entry into dormancy after exposure to inflammatory stress stimuli. Our results highlight the impact of dietary vitamin A on the regulation of cell-cycle-mediated stem cell plasticity. VIDEO ABSTRACT. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Urbanization effects on soil nitrogen transformations and microbial biomass in the subtropics

Treesearch

Heather A. Enloe; B. Graeme Lockaby; Wayne C. Zipperer; Greg L. Somers

2015-01-01

As urbanization can involve multiple alterations to the soil environment, it is uncertain how urbanization effects soil nitrogen cycling. We established 22–0.04 ha plots in six different land cover types—rural slash pine (Pinus elliottii) plantations (n=3), rural natural pine forests (n=3), rural natural oak forests (n=4), urban pine forests (n=3), urban oak forests (n...

The Framework for Life Cycle Cost Management,

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-01-01

in the early phases of system development before full- scale development and initial production, O&S cost projections are too un- certain to...Ensure that each increment of cost and schedule investment in R&M contributes significantly to the above objectives. DoDD 5000.40, Reliability and...Major systems are characterized by large investments of time and resources in the uncertain periods of development, production, and deployment and in

Adenomyosis: a life-cycle approach.

PubMed

Benagiano, Giuseppe; Brosens, Ivo; Habiba, Marwan

2015-03-01

The life-cycle approach to endometriosis highlighted unexpected features of the condition; the same approach was therefore applied to gain insight into the clinical features of adenomyosis and to draw a comparison with endometriosis. This is possible today thanks to new imaging techniques enabling non-invasive diagnosis of adenomyosis. The specificity and sensitivity of magnetic resonance imaging and transvaginal ultrasound remain uncertain. Unlike endometriosis, little information is available on the presence of classic adenomyosis in adolescents, except for rare cystic forms that may not represent the true disease. Adenomyosis is most likely to affect adult women, although most reported incidences are still based on post-hysterectomy studies, and are affected by diligence in histopathologic diagnosis and the adopted cut-off point. The traditionally accepted associations of adult adenomyosis, such as multiparity, a link to infertility and its effect on pregnancy are uncertain. Active adenomyosis has been found in pre- and peri-menopausal women and in postmenopausal women receiving tamoxifen. In conclusion, major diagnostic limitations and the systematic bias of hysterectomy make it difficult to draw firm conclusions from existing evidence. In addition, no information is available on the natural history of adenomyosis and no study has systematically evaluated its existence in adolescents. Copyright © 2014 Reproductive Healthcare Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Professional role identity in shaping community nurses' reactions to nursing policy.

PubMed

Elliott, Lawrie; Kennedy, Catriona; Raeside, Robert

2015-05-01

To establish the extent to which professional role identity shapes community nurses' reactions before the implementation of a policy that sought to introduce a generic role. Many countries seek to alter community nurse roles to address changes in population health and health workforce. We know little about the influences that might shape nurses' reaction to these policies before their implementation and our theoretical understanding is poorly developed at this point in the policy-making cycle. Self completed cross-sectional survey of 703 community nurses before the introduction of a generic Community Health Nurse role in Scotland. The minority (33%) supported the new role. The professional role identity of those who were supportive differed significantly from those who did not support the policy or were uncertain of it. It is possible that the new policy acted to increase the value of the professional role identity of those who were supportive and conversely devalued the professional role identity of those who were unsupportive or uncertain of it. Professional role identity should be considered by policy makers in any country seeking to introduce policies that aim to radically change the role of community nurses and that this is acknowledged at an early stage in the policy-making cycle. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Nursing Management published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing Location and Scale of Urban Nonpotable Water Reuse Systems for Life-Cycle Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions.

PubMed

Kavvada, Olga; Horvath, Arpad; Stokes-Draut, Jennifer R; Hendrickson, Thomas P; Eisenstein, William A; Nelson, Kara L

2016-12-20

Nonpotable water reuse (NPR) is one option for conserving valuable freshwater resources. Decentralization can improve distribution system efficiency by locating treatment closer to the consumer; however, small treatment systems may have higher unit energy and greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. This research explored the trade-off between residential NPR systems using a life-cycle approach to analyze the energy use and GHG emissions. Decentralized and centralized NPR options are compared to identify where decentralized systems achieve environmental advantages over centralized reuse alternatives, and vice versa, over a range of scales and spatial and demographic conditions. For high-elevation areas far from the centralized treatment plant, decentralized NPR could lower energy use by 29% and GHG emissions by 28%, but in low-elevation areas close to the centralized treatment plant, decentralized reuse could be higher by up to 85% (energy) and 49% (GHG emissions) for the scales assessed (20-2000 m 3 /day). Direct GHG emissions from the treatment processes were found to be highly uncertain and variable and were not included in the analysis. The framework presented can be used as a planning support tool to reveal the environmental impacts of integrating decentralized NPR with existing centralized wastewater infrastructure and can be adapted to evaluate different treatment technology scales for reuse.

A pathway linking reward circuitry, impulsive sensation-seeking and risky decision-making in young adults: identifying neural markers for new interventions

PubMed Central

Chase, H W; Fournier, J C; Bertocci, M A; Greenberg, T; Aslam, H; Stiffler, R; Lockovich, J; Graur, S; Bebko, G; Forbes, E E; Phillips, M L

2017-01-01

High trait impulsive sensation seeking (ISS) is common in 18–25-year olds, and is associated with risky decision-making and deleterious outcomes. We examined relationships among: activity in reward regions previously associated with ISS during an ISS-relevant context, uncertain reward expectancy (RE), using fMRI; ISS impulsivity and sensation-seeking subcomponents; and risky decision-making in 100, transdiagnostically recruited 18–25-year olds. ISS, anhedonia, anxiety, depression and mania were measured using self-report scales; clinician-administered scales also assessed the latter four. A post-scan risky decision-making task measured ‘risky' (possible win/loss/mixed/neutral) fMRI-task versus ‘sure thing' stimuli. ‘Bias' reflected risky over safe choices. Uncertain RE-related activity in left ventrolateral prefrontal cortex and bilateral ventral striatum was positively associated with an ISS composite score, comprising impulsivity and sensation-seeking–fun-seeking subcomponents (ISSc; P⩽0.001). Bias positively associated with sensation seeking–experience seeking (ES; P=0.003). This relationship was moderated by ISSc (P=0.009): it was evident only in high ISSc individuals. Whole-brain analyses showed a positive relationship between: uncertain RE-related left ventrolateral prefrontal cortical activity and ISSc; uncertain RE-related visual attention and motor preparation neural network activity and ES; and uncertain RE-related dorsal anterior cingulate cortical activity and bias, specifically in high ISSc participants (all ps<0.05, peak-level, family-wise error corrected). We identify an indirect pathway linking greater levels of uncertain RE-related activity in reward, visual attention and motor networks with greater risky decision-making, via positive relationships with impulsivity, fun seeking and ES. These objective neural markers of high ISS can guide new treatment developments for young adults with high levels of this debilitating personality trait. PMID:28418404

Menstrual cycle phase modulates reward-related neural function in women.

PubMed

Dreher, Jean-Claude; Schmidt, Peter J; Kohn, Philip; Furman, Daniella; Rubinow, David; Berman, Karen Faith

2007-02-13

There is considerable evidence from animal studies that the mesolimbic and mesocortical dopamine systems are sensitive to circulating gonadal steroid hormones. Less is known about the influence of estrogen and progesterone on the human reward system. To investigate this directly, we used functional MRI and an event-related monetary reward paradigm to study women with a repeated-measures, counterbalanced design across the menstrual cycle. Here we show that during the midfollicular phase (days 4-8 after onset of menses) women anticipating uncertain rewards activated the orbitofrontal cortex and amygdala more than during the luteal phase (6-10 days after luteinizing hormone surge). At the time of reward delivery, women in the follicular phase activated the midbrain, striatum, and left fronto-polar cortex more than during the luteal phase. These data demonstrate augmented reactivity of the reward system in women during the midfollicular phase when estrogen is unopposed by progesterone. Moreover, investigation of between-sex differences revealed that men activated ventral putamen more than women during anticipation of uncertain rewards, whereas women more strongly activated the anterior medial prefrontal cortex at the time of reward delivery. Correlation between brain activity and gonadal steroid levels also revealed that the amygdalo-hippocampal complex was positively correlated with estradiol level, regardless of menstrual cycle phase. Together, our findings provide evidence of neurofunctional modulation of the reward system by gonadal steroid hormones in humans and establish a neurobiological foundation for understanding their impact on vulnerability to drug abuse, neuropsychiatric diseases with differential expression across males and females, and hormonally mediated mood disorders.

Recent Trends of the Tropical Hydrological Cycle Inferred from Global Precipitation Climatology Project and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Y. P.; Xu, Kuan-Man; Sud, Y. C.; Betts, A. K.

2011-01-01

Scores of modeling studies have shown that increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere impact the global hydrologic cycle; however, disagreements on regional scales are large, and thus the simulated trends of such impacts, even for regions as large as the tropics, remain uncertain. The present investigation attempts to examine such trends in the observations using satellite data products comprising Global Precipitation Climatology Project precipitation and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project cloud and radiation. Specifically, evolving trends of the tropical hydrological cycle over the last 20-30 years were identified and analyzed. The results show (1) intensification of tropical precipitation in the rising regions of the Walker and Hadley circulations and weakening over the sinking regions of the associated overturning circulation; (2) poleward shift of the subtropical dry zones (up to 2deg/decade in June-July-August (JJA) in the Northern Hemisphere and 0.3-0.7deg/decade in June-July-August and September-October-November in the Southern Hemisphere) consistent with an overall broadening of the Hadley circulation; and (3) significant poleward migration (0.9-1.7deg/decade) of cloud boundaries of Hadley cell and plausible narrowing of the high cloudiness in the Intertropical Convergence Zone region in some seasons. These results support findings of some of the previous studies that showed strengthening of the tropical hydrological cycle and expansion of the Hadley cell that are potentially related to the recent global warming trends.

A quantitative approach to combine sources in stable isotope mixing models

EPA Science Inventory

Stable isotope mixing models, used to estimate source contributions to a mixture, typically yield highly uncertain estimates when there are many sources and relatively few isotope elements. Previously, ecologists have either accepted the uncertain contribution estimates for indiv...

Carbon fluxes in tropical forest ecosystems: the value of Eddy-covariance data for individual-based dynamic forest gap models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roedig, Edna; Cuntz, Matthias; Huth, Andreas

2015-04-01

The effects of climatic inter-annual fluctuations and human activities on the global carbon cycle are uncertain and currently a major issue in global vegetation models. Individual-based forest gap models, on the other hand, model vegetation structure and dynamics on a small spatial (<100 ha) and large temporal scale (>1000 years). They are well-established tools to reproduce successions of highly-diverse forest ecosystems and investigate disturbances as logging or fire events. However, the parameterizations of the relationships between short-term climate variability and forest model processes are often uncertain in these models (e.g. daily variable temperature and gross primary production (GPP)) and cannot be constrained from forest inventories. We addressed this uncertainty and linked high-resolution Eddy-covariance (EC) data with an individual-based forest gap model. The forest model FORMIND was applied to three diverse tropical forest sites in the Amazonian rainforest. Species diversity was categorized into three plant functional types. The parametrizations for the steady-state of biomass and forest structure were calibrated and validated with different forest inventories. The parameterizations of relationships between short-term climate variability and forest model processes were evaluated with EC-data on a daily time step. The validations of the steady-state showed that the forest model could reproduce biomass and forest structures from forest inventories. The daily estimations of carbon fluxes showed that the forest model reproduces GPP as observed by the EC-method. Daily fluctuations of GPP were clearly reflected as a response to daily climate variability. Ecosystem respiration remains a challenge on a daily time step due to a simplified soil respiration approach. In the long-term, however, the dynamic forest model is expected to estimate carbon budgets for highly-diverse tropical forests where EC-measurements are rare.

Nuclear power generation and fuel cycle report 1997

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1997-09-01

Nuclear power is an important source of electric energy and the amount of nuclear-generated electricity continued to grow as the performance of nuclear power plants improved. In 1996, nuclear power plants supplied 23 percent of the electricity production for countries with nuclear units, and 17 percent of the total electricity generated worldwide. However, the likelihood of nuclear power assuming a much larger role or even retaining its current share of electricity generation production is uncertain. The industry faces a complex set of issues including economic competitiveness, social acceptance, and the handling of nuclear waste, all of which contribute to themore » uncertain future of nuclear power. Nevertheless, for some countries the installed nuclear generating capacity is projected to continue to grow. Insufficient indigenous energy resources and concerns over energy independence make nuclear electric generation a viable option, especially for the countries of the Far East.« less

When Advisors' True Intentions Are in Question. How Do Bank Customers Cope with Uncertainty in Financial Consultancies?

PubMed

Mackinger, Barbara; Jonas, Eva; Mühlberger, Christina

2017-01-01

When making financial decisions bank customers are confronted with two types of uncertainty: first, return on investments is uncertain and there is a risk of losing money. Second, customers cannot be certain about their financial advisor's true intentions. This might decrease customers' willingness to cooperate with advisors. However, the uncertainty management model and fairness heuristic theory predict that in uncertain situations customers are willing to cooperate with financial advisors when they perceive fairness. In the current study, we investigated how perceived fairness in the twofold uncertain situations increased people's intended future cooperation with an advisor. We asked customers of financial consultancies about their experienced uncertainty regarding both the investment decision and the advisor's intentions. Moreover, we asked them about their perceived fairness, as well as their intention to cooperate with the advisor in the future. A three-way moderation analysis showed that customers who faced high uncertainty regarding the investment decision and high uncertainty regarding the advisor's true intentions indicated the lowest intended cooperation with the advisor but high fairness increased their cooperation. Interestingly, when people were only uncertain about the advisor's intentions (but certain about the decision) they indicated less cooperation than when they were only uncertain about the decision (but certain about the advisor's intentions). A mediated moderation analysis revealed that this relationship was explained by customers' lower trust in their advisors.

A Qualitative Study of Affordability: Virginia and San Antonio Class Programs

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-04

uncertain aspects of the life- cycle cost estimates, ensuring that actual costs and operational tempos resemble original assumptions is the most...total inventory, a typical variation for ships from the acquisition standard of 10%. Even though the Virginia-class has incurred only a fraction of the...Policy - 119 - Naval Postgraduate School REFERENCES 10 U.S.C. § 181 (1997). Birkler, J., Schank, J., Smith, G., Timson, F., Chiesa, J., Goldberg

Wind farm and solar park effects on plant–soil carbon cycling: uncertain impacts of changes in ground-level microclimate

PubMed Central

Armstrong, Alona; Waldron, Susan; Whitaker, Jeanette; Ostle, Nicholas J

2014-01-01

Global energy demand is increasing as greenhouse gas driven climate change progresses, making renewable energy sources critical to future sustainable power provision. Land-based wind and solar electricity generation technologies are rapidly expanding, yet our understanding of their operational effects on biological carbon cycling in hosting ecosystems is limited. Wind turbines and photovoltaic panels can significantly change local ground-level climate by a magnitude that could affect the fundamental plant–soil processes that govern carbon dynamics. We believe that understanding the possible effects of changes in ground-level microclimates on these phenomena is crucial to reducing uncertainty of the true renewable energy carbon cost and to maximize beneficial effects. In this Opinions article, we examine the potential for the microclimatic effects of these land-based renewable energy sources to alter plant–soil carbon cycling, hypothesize likely effects and identify critical knowledge gaps for future carbon research. PMID:24132939

Empirical estimates to reduce modeling uncertainties of soil organic carbon in permafrost regions: a review of recent progress and remaining challenges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mishra, U.; Jastrow, J.D.; Matamala, R.; Hugelius, G.; Koven, C.D.; Harden, Jennifer W.; Ping, S.L.; Michaelson, G.J.; Fan, Z.; Miller, R.M.; McGuire, A.D.; Tarnocai, C.; Kuhry, P.; Riley, W.J.; Schaefer, K.; Schuur, E.A.G.; Jorgenson, M.T.; Hinzman, L.D.

2013-01-01

The vast amount of organic carbon (OC) stored in soils of the northern circumpolar permafrost region is a potentially vulnerable component of the global carbon cycle. However, estimates of the quantity, decomposability, and combustibility of OC contained in permafrost-region soils remain highly uncertain, thereby limiting our ability to predict the release of greenhouse gases due to permafrost thawing. Substantial differences exist between empirical and modeling estimates of the quantity and distribution of permafrost-region soil OC, which contribute to large uncertainties in predictions of carbon–climate feedbacks under future warming. Here, we identify research challenges that constrain current assessments of the distribution and potential decomposability of soil OC stocks in the northern permafrost region and suggest priorities for future empirical and modeling studies to address these challenges.

The Accuracy and Correction of Fuel Consumption from Controller Area Network Broadcast

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Lijuan; Gonder, Jeffrey D; Wood, Eric W

Fuel consumption (FC) has always been an important factor in vehicle cost. With the advent of electronically controlled engines, the controller area network (CAN) broadcasts information about engine and vehicle performance, including fuel use. However, the accuracy of the FC estimates is uncertain. In this study, the researchers first compared CAN-broadcasted FC against physically measured fuel use for three different types of trucks, which revealed the inaccuracies of CAN-broadcast fueling estimates. To match precise gravimetric fuel-scale measurements, polynomial models were developed to correct the CAN-broadcasted FC. Lastly, the robustness testing of the correction models was performed. The training cycles inmore » this section included a variety of drive characteristics, such as high speed, acceleration, idling, and deceleration. The mean relative differences were reduced noticeably.« less

Matrix approach to uncertainty assessment and reduction for modeling terrestrial carbon cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Y.; Xia, J.; Ahlström, A.; Zhou, S.; Huang, Y.; Shi, Z.; Wang, Y.; Du, Z.; Lu, X.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystems absorb approximately 30% of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. This estimate has been deduced indirectly: combining analyses of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations with ocean observations to infer the net terrestrial carbon flux. In contrast, when knowledge about the terrestrial carbon cycle is integrated into different terrestrial carbon models they make widely different predictions. To improve the terrestrial carbon models, we have recently developed a matrix approach to uncertainty assessment and reduction. Specifically, the terrestrial carbon cycle has been commonly represented by a series of carbon balance equations to track carbon influxes into and effluxes out of individual pools in earth system models. This representation matches our understanding of carbon cycle processes well and can be reorganized into one matrix equation without changing any modeled carbon cycle processes and mechanisms. We have developed matrix equations of several global land C cycle models, including CLM3.5, 4.0 and 4.5, CABLE, LPJ-GUESS, and ORCHIDEE. Indeed, the matrix equation is generic and can be applied to other land carbon models. This matrix approach offers a suite of new diagnostic tools, such as the 3-dimensional (3-D) parameter space, traceability analysis, and variance decomposition, for uncertainty analysis. For example, predictions of carbon dynamics with complex land models can be placed in a 3-D parameter space (carbon input, residence time, and storage potential) as a common metric to measure how much model predictions are different. The latter can be traced to its source components by decomposing model predictions to a hierarchy of traceable components. Then, variance decomposition can help attribute the spread in predictions among multiple models to precisely identify sources of uncertainty. The highly uncertain components can be constrained by data as the matrix equation makes data assimilation computationally possible. We will illustrate various applications of this matrix approach to uncertainty assessment and reduction for terrestrial carbon cycle models.

A prospective investigation of perceived stress, infertility-related stress, and cortisol levels in women undergoing in vitro fertilization: influence on embryo quality and clinical pregnancy rate.

PubMed

Cesta, Carolyn E; Johansson, Anna L V; Hreinsson, Julius; Rodriguez-Wallberg, Kenny A; Olofsson, Jan I; Holte, Jan; Wramsby, Håkan; Wramsby, Margareta; Cnattingius, Sven; Skalkidou, Alkistis; Nyman Iliadou, Anastasia

2018-03-01

Women undergoing fertility treatment experience high levels of stress. However, it remains uncertain if and how stress influences in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycle outcome. This study aimed to investigate whether self-reported perceived and infertility-related stress and cortisol levels were associated with IVF cycle outcomes. A prospective cohort of 485 women receiving fertility treatment was recruited from September 2011 to December 2013 and followed until December 2014. Data were collected by online questionnaire prior to IVF start and from clinical charts. Salivary cortisol levels were measured. Associations between stress and cycle outcomes (clinical pregnancy and indicators of oocyte and embryo quality) were measured by logistic or linear regression, adjusted for age, body mass index, education, smoking, alcohol and caffeine consumption, shiftwork and night work. Ultrasound verified pregnancy rate was 26.6% overall per cycle started and 32.9% per embryo transfer. Stress measures were not associated with clinical pregnancy: when compared with the lowest categories, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the highest categories of the perceived stress score was 1.04 (95% CI 0.58-1.87), infertility-related stress score was OR = 1.18 (95% CI 0.56-2.47), morning and evening cortisol was OR = 1.18 (95% CI 0.60-2.29) and OR = 0.66 (95% CI 0.34-1.30), respectively. Perceived stress, infertility-related stress, and cortisol levels were not associated with IVF cycle outcomes. These findings are potentially reassuring to women undergoing fertility treatment with concerns about the influence of stress on their treatment outcome. © 2017 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Determinants of carbon release from the active layer and permafrost deposits on the Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Chen, Leiyi; Liang, Junyi; Qin, Shuqi; Liu, Li; Fang, Kai; Xu, Yunping; Ding, Jinzhi; Li, Fei; Luo, Yiqi; Yang, Yuanhe

2016-01-01

The sign and magnitude of permafrost carbon (C)-climate feedback are highly uncertain due to the limited understanding of the decomposability of thawing permafrost and relevant mechanistic controls over C release. Here, by combining aerobic incubation with biomarker analysis and a three-pool model, we reveal that C quality (represented by a higher amount of fast cycling C but a lower amount of recalcitrant C compounds) and normalized CO2–C release in permafrost deposits were similar or even higher than those in the active layer, demonstrating a high vulnerability of C in Tibetan upland permafrost. We also illustrate that C quality exerts the most control over CO2–C release from the active layer, whereas soil microbial abundance is more directly associated with CO2–C release after permafrost thaw. Taken together, our findings highlight the importance of incorporating microbial properties into Earth System Models when predicting permafrost C dynamics under a changing environment. PMID:27703168

A Structural Characterization of Temporal Dynamic Controllability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, Paul

2006-01-01

An important issue for temporal planners is the ability to handle temporal uncertainty. Recent papers have addressed the question of how to tell whether a temporal network is Dynamically Controllable, i.e., whether the temporal requirements are feasible in the light of uncertain durations of some processes. Previous work has presented an O(N5) algorithm for testing this property. Here, we introduce a new analysis of temporal cycles that leads to an O(N4) algorithm.

Rapid emergence of subaerial landmasses and onset of a modern hydrologic cycle 2.5 billion years ago.

PubMed

Bindeman, I N; Zakharov, D O; Palandri, J; Greber, N D; Dauphas, N; Retallack, G J; Hofmann, A; Lackey, J S; Bekker, A

2018-05-01

The history of the growth of continental crust is uncertain, and several different models that involve a gradual, decelerating, or stepwise process have been proposed 1-4 . Even more uncertain is the timing and the secular trend of the emergence of most landmasses above the sea (subaerial landmasses), with estimates ranging from about one billion to three billion years ago 5-7 . The area of emerged crust influences global climate feedbacks and the supply of nutrients to the oceans 8 , and therefore connects Earth's crustal evolution to surface environmental conditions 9-11 . Here we use the triple-oxygen-isotope composition of shales from all continents, spanning 3.7 billion years, to provide constraints on the emergence of continents over time. Our measurements show a stepwise total decrease of 0.08 per mille in the average triple-oxygen-isotope value of shales across the Archaean-Proterozoic boundary. We suggest that our data are best explained by a shift in the nature of water-rock interactions, from near-coastal in the Archaean era to predominantly continental in the Proterozoic, accompanied by a decrease in average surface temperatures. We propose that this shift may have coincided with the onset of a modern hydrological cycle owing to the rapid emergence of continental crust with near-modern average elevation and aerial extent roughly 2.5 billion years ago.

An Exemplar-Model Account of Feature Inference from Uncertain Categorizations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nosofsky, Robert M.

2015-01-01

In a highly systematic literature, researchers have investigated the manner in which people make feature inferences in paradigms involving uncertain categorizations (e.g., Griffiths, Hayes, & Newell, 2012; Murphy & Ross, 1994, 2007, 2010a). Although researchers have discussed the implications of the results for models of categorization and…

Different Polar Metabolites and Protein Profiles between High- and Low-Quality Japanese Ginjo Sake

PubMed Central

Takahashi, Kei; Kohno, Hiromi

2016-01-01

Japanese ginjo sake is a premium refined sake characterized by a pleasant fruity apple-like flavor and a sophisticated taste. Because of technical difficulties inherent in brewing ginjo sake, off-flavors sometimes occur. However, the metabolites responsible for off-flavors as well as those present or absent in higher quality ginjo sake remain uncertain. Here, the relationship between 202 polar chemical compounds in sake identified using capillary electrophoresis coupled with time-of-flight mass spectrometry and its organoleptic properties, such as quality and off-flavor, was examined. First, we found that some off-flavored sakes contained higher total amounts of metabolites than other sake samples. The results also identified that levels of 2-oxoglutaric acid and fumaric acid, metabolites in the tricarboxylic acid cycle, were highly but oppositely correlated with ginjo sake quality. Similarly, pyridoxine and pyridoxamine, co-enzymes for amino transferase, were also highly but oppositely correlated with ginjo sake quality. Additionally, pyruvic acid levels were associated with good quality as well. Compounds involved in the methionine salvage cycle, oxidative glutathione derivatives, and amino acid catabolites were correlated with low quality. Among off-flavors, an inharmonious bitter taste appeared attributable to polyamines. Furthermore, protein analysis displayed that a diversity of protein components and yeast protein (triosephosphate isomerase, TPI) leakage was linked to the overall metabolite intensity in ginjo sake. This research provides insight into the relationship between sake components and organoleptic properties. PMID:26939054

Cycling infrastructure for reducing cycling injuries in cyclists.

PubMed

Mulvaney, Caroline A; Smith, Sherie; Watson, Michael C; Parkin, John; Coupland, Carol; Miller, Philip; Kendrick, Denise; McClintock, Hugh

2015-12-10

Cycling is an attractive form of transport. It is beneficial to the individual as a form of physical activity that may fit more readily into an individual's daily routine, such as for cycling to work and to the shops, than other physical activities such as visiting a gym. Cycling is also beneficial to the wider community and the environment as a result of fewer motorised journeys. Cyclists are seen as vulnerable road users who are frequently in close proximity to larger and faster motorised vehicles. Cycling infrastructure aims to make cycling both more convenient and safer for cyclists. This review is needed to guide transport planning. To:1. evaluate the effects of different types of cycling infrastructure on reducing cycling injuries in cyclists, by type of infrastructure;2. evaluate the effects of cycling infrastructure on reducing the severity of cycling injuries in cyclists;3. evaluate the effects of cycling infrastructure on reducing cycling injuries in cyclists with respect to age, sex and social group. We ran the most recent search on 2nd March 2015. We searched the Cochrane Injuries Group Specialised Register, CENTRAL (The Cochrane Library), MEDLINE (OvidSP), Embase Classic + Embase(OvidSP), PubMed and 10 other databases. We searched websites, handsearched conference proceedings, screened reference lists of included studies and previously published reviews and contacted relevant organisations. We included randomised controlled trials, cluster randomised controlled trials, controlled before-after studies, and interrupted time series studies which evaluated the effect of cycling infrastructure (such as cycle lanes, tracks or paths, speed management, roundabout design) on cyclist injury or collision rates. Studies had to include a comparator, that is, either no infrastructure or a different type of infrastructure. We excluded studies that assessed collisions that occurred as a result of competitive cycling. Two review authors examined the titles and abstracts of papers obtained from searches to determine eligibility. Two review authors extracted data from the included trials and assessed the risk of bias. We carried out a meta-analysis using the random-effects model where at least three studies reported the same intervention and outcome. Where there were sufficient studies, as a secondary analysis we accounted for changes in cyclist exposure in the calculation of the rate ratios. We rated the quality of the evidence as 'high', 'moderate', 'low' or 'very low' according to the GRADE approach for the installation of cycle routes and networks. We identified 21 studies for inclusion in the review: 20 controlled before-after (CBA) studies and one interrupted time series (ITS) study. These evaluated a range of infrastructure including cycle lanes, advanced stop lines, use of colour, cycle tracks, cycle paths, management of the road network, speed management, cycle routes and networks, roundabout design and packages of measures. No studies reported medically-attended or self-reported injuries. There was no evidence that cycle lanes reduce the rate of cycle collisions (rate ratio 1.21, 95% CI 0.70 to 2.08). Taking into account cycle flow, there was no difference in collisions for cyclists using cycle routes and networks compared with cyclists not using cycle routes and networks (RR 0.40, 95% CI 0.15 to 1.05). There was statistically significant heterogeneity between the studies (I² = 75%, Chi² = 8.00 df = 2, P = 0.02) for the analysis adjusted for cycle flow. We judged the quality of the evidence regarding cycle routes and networks as very low and we are very uncertain about the estimate. These analyses are based on findings from CBA studies.From data presented narratively, the use of 20 mph speed restrictions in urban areas may be effective at reducing cyclist collisions. Redesigning specific parts of cycle routes that may be particularly busy or complex in terms of traffic movement may be beneficial to cyclists in terms of reducing the risk of collision. Generally, the conversion of intersections to roundabouts may increase the number of cycle collisions. In particular, the conversion of intersections to roundabouts with cycle lanes marked as part of the circulating carriageway increased cycle collisions. However, the conversion of intersections with and without signals to roundabouts with cycle paths may reduce the odds of collision. Both continuing a cycle lane across the mouth of a side road with a give way line onto the main road, and cycle tracks, may increase the risk of injury collisions in cyclists. However, these conclusions are uncertain, being based on a narrative review of findings from included studies. There is a lack of evidence that cycle paths or advanced stop lines either reduce or increase injury collisions in cyclists. There is also insufficient evidence to draw any robust conclusions concerning the effect of cycling infrastructure on cycling collisions in terms of severity of injury, sex, age, and level of social deprivation of the casualty.In terms of quality of the evidence, there was little matching of intervention and control sites. In many studies, the comparability of the control area to the intervention site was unclear and few studies provided information on other cycling infrastructures that may be in place in the control and intervention areas. The majority of studies analysed data routinely collected by organisations external to the study team, thus reducing the risk of bias in terms of systematic differences in assessing outcomes between the control and intervention groups. Some authors did not take regression-to-mean effects into account when examining changes in collisions. Longer data collection periods pre- and post-installation would allow for regression-to-mean effects and also seasonal and time trends in traffic volume to be observed. Few studies adjusted cycle collision rates for exposure. Generally, there is a lack of high quality evidence to be able to draw firm conclusions as to the effect of cycling infrastructure on cycling collisions. There is a lack of rigorous evaluation of cycling infrastructure.

An efficient sampling algorithm for uncertain abnormal data detection in biomedical image processing and disease prediction.

PubMed

Liu, Fei; Zhang, Xi; Jia, Yan

2015-01-01

In this paper, we propose a computer information processing algorithm that can be used for biomedical image processing and disease prediction. A biomedical image is considered a data object in a multi-dimensional space. Each dimension is a feature that can be used for disease diagnosis. We introduce a new concept of the top (k1,k2) outlier. It can be used to detect abnormal data objects in the multi-dimensional space. This technique focuses on uncertain space, where each data object has several possible instances with distinct probabilities. We design an efficient sampling algorithm for the top (k1,k2) outlier in uncertain space. Some improvement techniques are used for acceleration. Experiments show our methods' high accuracy and high efficiency.

Adaptive backstepping control of train systems with traction/braking dynamics and uncertain resistive forces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Qi; Song, Y. D.; Cai, Wenchuan

2011-09-01

Although backstepping control design approach has been widely utilised in many practical systems, little effort has been made in applying this useful method to train systems. The main purpose of this paper is to apply this popular control design technique to speed and position tracking control of high-speed trains. By integrating adaptive control with backstepping control, we develop a control scheme that is able to address not only the traction and braking dynamics ignored in most existing methods, but also the uncertain friction and aerodynamic drag forces arisen from uncertain resistance coefficients. As such, the resultant control algorithms are able to achieve high precision train position and speed tracking under varying operation railway conditions, as validated by theoretical analysis and numerical simulations.

An integrated and dynamic optimisation model for the multi-level emergency logistics network in anti-bioterrorism system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ming; Zhao, Lindu

2012-08-01

Demand for emergency resources is usually uncertain and varies quickly in anti-bioterrorism system. Besides, emergency resources which had been allocated to the epidemic areas in the early rescue cycle will affect the demand later. In this article, an integrated and dynamic optimisation model with time-varying demand based on the epidemic diffusion rule is constructed. The heuristic algorithm coupled with the MATLAB mathematical programming solver is adopted to solve the optimisation model. In what follows, the application of the optimisation model as well as a short sensitivity analysis of the key parameters in the time-varying demand forecast model is presented. The results show that both the model and the solution algorithm are useful in practice, and both objectives of inventory level and emergency rescue cost can be controlled effectively. Thus, it can provide some guidelines for decision makers when coping with emergency rescue problem with uncertain demand, and offers an excellent reference when issues pertain to bioterrorism.

The Social Network of Tracer Variations and O(100) Uncertain Photochemical Parameters in the Community Atmosphere Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, D. D.; Labute, M.; Chowdhary, K.; Debusschere, B.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.

2014-12-01

Simulating the atmospheric cycles of ozone, methane, and other radiatively important trace gases in global climate models is computationally demanding and requires the use of 100's of photochemical parameters with uncertain values. Quantitative analysis of the effects of these uncertainties on tracer distributions, radiative forcing, and other model responses is hindered by the "curse of dimensionality." We describe efforts to overcome this curse using ensemble simulations and advanced statistical methods. Uncertainties from 95 photochemical parameters in the trop-MOZART scheme were sampled using a Monte Carlo method and propagated through 10,000 simulations of the single column version of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). The variance of the ensemble was represented as a network with nodes and edges, and the topology and connections in the network were analyzed using lasso regression, Bayesian compressive sensing, and centrality measures from the field of social network theory. Despite the limited sample size for this high dimensional problem, our methods determined the key sources of variation and co-variation in the ensemble and identified important clusters in the network topology. Our results can be used to better understand the flow of photochemical uncertainty in simulations using CAM and other climate models. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344 and supported by the DOE Office of Science through the Scientific Discovery Through Advanced Computing (SciDAC).

Modeling and observational constraints on the sulfur cycle in the marine troposphere: a focus on reactive halogens and multiphase chemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Q.; Breider, T.; Schmidt, J.; Sherwen, T.; Evans, M. J.; Xie, Z.; Quinn, P.; Bates, T. S.; Alexander, B.

2017-12-01

The radiative forcing from marine boundary layer clouds is still highly uncertain, which partly stems from our poor understanding of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) formation. The oxidation of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and subsequent chemical evolution of its products (e.g. DMSO) are key processes in CCN formation, but are generally very simplified in large-scale models. Recent research has pointed out the importance of reactive halogens (e.g. BrO and Cl) and multiphase chemistry in the tropospheric sulfur cycle. In this study, we implement a series of sulfur oxidation mechanisms into the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model, involving both gas-phase and multiphase oxidation of DMS, DMSO, MSIA and MSA, to improve our understanding of the sulfur cycle in the marine troposphere. DMS observations from six locations around the globe and MSA/nssSO42- ratio observations from two ship cruises covering a wide range of latitudes and longitudes are used to assess the model. Preliminary results reveal the important role of BrO for DMS oxidation at high latitudes (up to 50% over Southern Ocean). Oxidation of DMS by Cl radicals is small in the model (within 10% in the marine troposphere), probably due to an underrepresentation of Cl sources. Multiphase chemistry (e.g. oxidation by OH and O3 in cloud droplets) is not important for DMS oxidation but is critical for DMSO oxidation and MSA production and removal. In our model, about half of the DMSO is oxidized in clouds, leading to the formation of MSIA, which is further oxidized to form MSA. Overall, with the addition of reactive halogens and multiphase chemistry, the model is able to better reproduce observations of seasonal variations of DMS and MSA/nssSO42- ratios.

The role of uncertain self-esteem in self-handicapping.

PubMed

Harris, R N; Snyder, C R

1986-08-01

In this article, the hypothesis that some individuals confronted with an intellectual evaluation use a lack of preparation as a "self-handicapping" strategy (Jones & Berglas, 1978) was studied. Sex and both level and certainty of self-esteem were examined in regard to the self-handicapping strategy of lack of effort. Subjects were 54 men and 54 women, certain and uncertain, high and low self-esteem college students, who believed that the experiment was designed to update local norms for a nonverbal test of intellectual ability. After subjects' level of state anxiety was assessed, they were instructed in the benefits of practicing for the evaluation. Subsequently, subjects' state anxiety and preparatory efforts (the primary dependent variables) were measured. Subjects' practice, self-protective attributions, and related affect supported a self-handicapping interpretation for uncertain males but not for uncertain females.

The Role of Threat Level and Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU) in Anxiety: An Experimental Test of IU Theory.

PubMed

Oglesby, Mary E; Schmidt, Norman B

2017-07-01

Intolerance of uncertainty (IU) has been proposed as an important transdiagnostic variable within mood- and anxiety-related disorders. The extant literature has suggested that individuals high in IU interpret uncertainty more negatively. Furthermore, theoretical models of IU posit that those elevated in IU may experience an uncertain threat as more anxiety provoking than a certain threat. However, no research to date has experimentally manipulated the certainty of an impending threat while utilizing an in vivo stressor. In the current study, undergraduate participants (N = 79) were randomized to one of two conditions: certain threat (participants were told that later on in the study they would give a 3-minute speech) or uncertain threat (participants were told that later on in the study they would flip a coin to determine whether or not they would give a 3-minute speech). Participants also completed self-report questionnaires measuring their baseline state anxiety, baseline trait IU, and prespeech state anxiety. Results indicated that trait IU was associated with greater state anticipatory anxiety when the prospect of giving a speech was made uncertain (i.e., uncertain condition). Further, findings indicated no significant difference in anticipatory state anxiety among individuals high in IU when comparing an uncertain versus certain threat (i.e., uncertain and certain threat conditions, respectively). Furthermore, results found no significant interaction between condition and trait IU when predicting state anticipatory anxiety. This investigation is the first to test a crucial component of IU theory while utilizing an ecologically valid paradigm. Results of the present study are discussed in terms of theoretical models of IU and directions for future work. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Applications of HCMM data to soil moisture snow and estuarine current studies. [soil moisture in Minnesota and water circulation in the Delaware Bay and Potomac River

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiesnet, D. R. (Principal Investigator); Mcginnis, D. F.; Matson, M.

1979-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Additional analyses of Luverne, Minnesota ground data revealed that soil moisture variations are independent of elevation effects. Tidal fluctuations in the Potomac River and Delaware Bay were examined as a function of surface temperature. Preliminary findings suggest that temperature boundaries are sufficient to detect various stages of the tidal cycle in Delaware Bay, but are as yet uncertain for prediction in the Potomac River. At least three additional cases are needed to completely evaluate the tidal cycle. An alphanumeric printout at a scale of 1:1,000,000 compares closely with a 1:1,000,000 scale DMD image of the Chesapeake Bay region.

Nonlinear climatic sensitivity to greenhouse gases over past 4 glacial/interglacial cycles.

PubMed

Lo, Li; Chang, Sheng-Pu; Wei, Kuo-Yen; Lee, Shih-Yu; Ou, Tsong-Hua; Chen, Yi-Chi; Chuang, Chih-Kai; Mii, Horng-Sheng; Burr, George S; Chen, Min-Te; Tung, Ying-Hung; Tsai, Meng-Chieh; Hodell, David A; Shen, Chuan-Chou

2017-07-04

The paleoclimatic sensitivity to atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) has recently been suggested to be nonlinear, however a GHG threshold value associated with deglaciation remains uncertain. Here, we combine a new sea surface temperature record spanning the last 360,000 years from the southern Western Pacific Warm Pool with records from five previous studies in the equatorial Pacific to document the nonlinear relationship between climatic sensitivity and GHG levels over the past four glacial/interglacial cycles. The sensitivity of the responses to GHG concentrations rises dramatically by a factor of 2-4 at atmospheric CO 2 levels of >220 ppm. Our results suggest that the equatorial Pacific acts as a nonlinear amplifier that allows global climate to transition from deglacial to full interglacial conditions once atmospheric CO 2 levels reach threshold levels.

Global and Time-Resolved Monitoring of Crop Photosynthesis with Chlorophyll Fluorescence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guanter, Luis; Zhang, Yongguang; Jung, Martin; Joiner, Joanna; Voigt, Maximilian; Berry, Joseph A.; Frankenberg, Christian; Huete, Alfredo R.; Zarco-Tejada, Pablo; Lee, Jung-Eun;

Global and time-resolved monitoring of crop photosynthesis with chlorophyll fluorescence

PubMed Central

Guanter, Luis; Zhang, Yongguang; Jung, Martin; Joiner, Joanna; Voigt, Maximilian; Berry, Joseph A.; Frankenberg, Christian; Huete, Alfredo R.; Zarco-Tejada, Pablo; Lee, Jung-Eun; Moran, M. Susan; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo; Beer, Christian; Camps-Valls, Gustavo; Buchmann, Nina; Gianelle, Damiano; Klumpp, Katja; Cescatti, Alessandro; Baker, John M.; Griffis, Timothy J.

2014-01-01

Photosynthesis is the process by which plants harvest sunlight to produce sugars from carbon dioxide and water. It is the primary source of energy for all life on Earth; hence it is important to understand how this process responds to climate change and human impact. However, model-based estimates of gross primary production (GPP, output from photosynthesis) are highly uncertain, in particular over heavily managed agricultural areas. Recent advances in spectroscopy enable the space-based monitoring of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) from terrestrial plants. Here we demonstrate that spaceborne SIF retrievals provide a direct measure of the GPP of cropland and grassland ecosystems. Such a strong link with crop photosynthesis is not evident for traditional remotely sensed vegetation indices, nor for more complex carbon cycle models. We use SIF observations to provide a global perspective on agricultural productivity. Our SIF-based crop GPP estimates are 50–75% higher than results from state-of-the-art carbon cycle models over, for example, the US Corn Belt and the Indo-Gangetic Plain, implying that current models severely underestimate the role of management. Our results indicate that SIF data can help us improve our global models for more accurate projections of agricultural productivity and climate impact on crop yields. Extension of our approach to other ecosystems, along with increased observational capabilities for SIF in the near future, holds the prospect of reducing uncertainties in the modeling of the current and future carbon cycle. PMID:24706867

Wind farm and solar park effects on plant-soil carbon cycling: uncertain impacts of changes in ground-level microclimate.

PubMed

Armstrong, Alona; Waldron, Susan; Whitaker, Jeanette; Ostle, Nicholas J

2014-06-01

Global energy demand is increasing as greenhouse gas driven climate change progresses, making renewable energy sources critical to future sustainable power provision. Land-based wind and solar electricity generation technologies are rapidly expanding, yet our understanding of their operational effects on biological carbon cycling in hosting ecosystems is limited. Wind turbines and photovoltaic panels can significantly change local ground-level climate by a magnitude that could affect the fundamental plant-soil processes that govern carbon dynamics. We believe that understanding the possible effects of changes in ground-level microclimates on these phenomena is crucial to reducing uncertainty of the true renewable energy carbon cost and to maximize beneficial effects. In this Opinions article, we examine the potential for the microclimatic effects of these land-based renewable energy sources to alter plant-soil carbon cycling, hypothesize likely effects and identify critical knowledge gaps for future carbon research. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Carbon sequestration and its role in the global carbon cycle

USGS Publications Warehouse

McPherson, Brian J.; Sundquist, Eric T.

2009-01-01

For carbon sequestration the issues of monitoring, risk assessment, and verification of carbon content and storage efficacy are perhaps the most uncertain. Yet these issues are also the most critical challenges facing the broader context of carbon sequestration as a means for addressing climate change. In response to these challenges, Carbon Sequestration and Its Role in the Global Carbon Cycle presents current perspectives and research that combine five major areas: • The global carbon cycle and verification and assessment of global carbon sources and sinks • Potential capacity and temporal/spatial scales of terrestrial, oceanic, and geologic carbon storage • Assessing risks and benefits associated with terrestrial, oceanic, and geologic carbon storage • Predicting, monitoring, and verifying effectiveness of different forms of carbon storage • Suggested new CO2 sequestration research and management paradigms for the future. The volume is based on a Chapman Conference and will appeal to the rapidly growing group of scientists and engineers examining methods for deliberate carbon sequestration through storage in plants, soils, the oceans, and geological repositories.

Water stress detection in the Amazon using radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Emmerik, Tim; Steele-Dunne, Susan; Paget, Aaron; Oliveira, Rafael S.; Bittencourt, Paulo R. L.; Barros, Fernanda de V.; van de Giesen, Nick

2017-07-01

The Amazon rainforest plays an important role in the global water and carbon cycle, and though it is predicted to continue drying in the future, the effect of drought remains uncertain. Developments in remote sensing missions now facilitate large-scale observations. The RapidScat scatterometer (Ku band) mounted on the International Space Station observes the Earth in a non-Sun-synchronous orbit, which allows for studying changes in the diurnal cycle of radar backscatter over the Amazon. Diurnal cycles in backscatter are significantly affected by the state of the canopy, especially during periods of increased water stress. We use RapidScat backscatter time series and water deficit measurements from dendrometers in 20 trees during a 9 month period to relate variations in backscatter to increased tree water deficit. Morning radar bacskcatter dropped significantly with increased tree water deficit measured with dendrometers. This provides unique observational evidence that demonstrates the sensitivity of radar backscatter to vegetation water stress, highlighting the potential of drought detection and monitoring using radar.

Large historical growth in global terrestrial gross primary production

DOE PAGES

Campbell, J. E.; Berry, J. A.; Seibt, U.; ...

2017-04-05

Growth in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) may provide a negative feedback for climate change. It remains uncertain, however, to what extent biogeochemical processes can suppress global GPP growth. In consequence, model estimates of terrestrial carbon storage and carbon cycle –climate feedbacks remain poorly constrained. Here we present a global, measurement-based estimate of GPP growth during the twentieth century based on long-term atmospheric carbonyl sulphide (COS) records derived from ice core, firn, and ambient air samples. Here, we interpret these records using a model that simulates changes in COS concentration due to changes in its sources and sinks, including amore » large sink that is related to GPP. We find that the COS record is most consistent with climate-carbon cycle model simulations that assume large GPP growth during the twentieth century (31% ± 5%; mean ± 95% confidence interval). Finally, while this COS analysis does not directly constrain estimates of future GPP growth it provides a global-scale benchmark for historical carbon cycle simulations.« less

Large historical growth in global terrestrial gross primary production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Campbell, J. E.; Berry, J. A.; Seibt, U.

Growth in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) may provide a negative feedback for climate change. It remains uncertain, however, to what extent biogeochemical processes can suppress global GPP growth. In consequence, model estimates of terrestrial carbon storage and carbon cycle –climate feedbacks remain poorly constrained. Here we present a global, measurement-based estimate of GPP growth during the twentieth century based on long-term atmospheric carbonyl sulphide (COS) records derived from ice core, firn, and ambient air samples. Here, we interpret these records using a model that simulates changes in COS concentration due to changes in its sources and sinks, including amore » large sink that is related to GPP. We find that the COS record is most consistent with climate-carbon cycle model simulations that assume large GPP growth during the twentieth century (31% ± 5%; mean ± 95% confidence interval). Finally, while this COS analysis does not directly constrain estimates of future GPP growth it provides a global-scale benchmark for historical carbon cycle simulations.« less

Possible world based consistency learning model for clustering and classifying uncertain data.

PubMed

Liu, Han; Zhang, Xianchao; Zhang, Xiaotong

2018-06-01

Possible world has shown to be effective for handling various types of data uncertainty in uncertain data management. However, few uncertain data clustering and classification algorithms are proposed based on possible world. Moreover, existing possible world based algorithms suffer from the following issues: (1) they deal with each possible world independently and ignore the consistency principle across different possible worlds; (2) they require the extra post-processing procedure to obtain the final result, which causes that the effectiveness highly relies on the post-processing method and the efficiency is also not very good. In this paper, we propose a novel possible world based consistency learning model for uncertain data, which can be extended both for clustering and classifying uncertain data. This model utilizes the consistency principle to learn a consensus affinity matrix for uncertain data, which can make full use of the information across different possible worlds and then improve the clustering and classification performance. Meanwhile, this model imposes a new rank constraint on the Laplacian matrix of the consensus affinity matrix, thereby ensuring that the number of connected components in the consensus affinity matrix is exactly equal to the number of classes. This also means that the clustering and classification results can be directly obtained without any post-processing procedure. Furthermore, for the clustering and classification tasks, we respectively derive the efficient optimization methods to solve the proposed model. Experimental results on real benchmark datasets and real world uncertain datasets show that the proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art uncertain data clustering and classification algorithms in effectiveness and performs competitively in efficiency. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Causal uncertainty, claimed and behavioural self-handicapping.

PubMed

Thompson, Ted; Hepburn, Jonathan

2003-06-01

Causal uncertainty beliefs involve doubts about the causes of events, and arise as a consequence of non-contingent evaluative feedback: feedback that leaves the individual uncertain about the causes of his or her achievement outcomes. Individuals high in causal uncertainty are frequently unable to confidently attribute their achievement outcomes, experience anxiety in achievement situations and as a consequence are likely to engage in self-handicapping behaviour. Accordingly, we sought to establish links between trait causal uncertainty, claimed and behavioural self-handicapping. Participants were N=72 undergraduate students divided equally between high and low causally uncertain groups. We used a 2 (causal uncertainty status: high, low) x 3 (performance feedback condition: success, non-contingent success, non-contingent failure) between-subjects factorial design to examine the effects of causal uncertainty on achievement behaviour. Following performance feedback, participants completed 20 single-solution anagrams and 12 remote associate tasks serving as performance measures, and 16 unicursal tasks to assess practice effort. Participants also completed measures of claimed handicaps, state anxiety and attributions. Relative to low causally uncertain participants, high causally uncertain participants claimed more handicaps prior to performance on the anagrams and remote associates, reported higher anxiety, attributed their failure to internal, stable factors, and reduced practice effort on the unicursal tasks, evident in fewer unicursal tasks solved. These findings confirm links between trait causal uncertainty and claimed and behavioural self-handicapping, highlighting the need for educators to facilitate means by which students can achieve surety in the manner in which they attribute the causes of their achievement outcomes.

Intelligent robust control for uncertain nonlinear time-varying systems and its application to robotic systems.

PubMed

Chang, Yeong-Chan

2005-12-01

This paper addresses the problem of designing adaptive fuzzy-based (or neural network-based) robust controls for a large class of uncertain nonlinear time-varying systems. This class of systems can be perturbed by plant uncertainties, unmodeled perturbations, and external disturbances. Nonlinear H(infinity) control technique incorporated with adaptive control technique and VSC technique is employed to construct the intelligent robust stabilization controller such that an H(infinity) control is achieved. The problem of the robust tracking control design for uncertain robotic systems is employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed robust stabilization control scheme. Therefore, an intelligent robust tracking controller for uncertain robotic systems in the presence of high-degree uncertainties can easily be implemented. Its solution requires only to solve a linear algebraic matrix inequality and a satisfactorily transient and asymptotical tracking performance is guaranteed. A simulation example is made to confirm the performance of the developed control algorithms.

Reliability and Productivity Modeling for the Optimization of Separated Spacecraft Interferometers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenny, Sean (Technical Monitor); Wertz, Julie

2002-01-01

As technological systems grow in capability, they also grow in complexity. Due to this complexity, it is no longer possible for a designer to use engineering judgement to identify the components that have the largest impact on system life cycle metrics, such as reliability, productivity, cost, and cost effectiveness. One way of identifying these key components is to build quantitative models and analysis tools that can be used to aid the designer in making high level architecture decisions. Once these key components have been identified, two main approaches to improving a system using these components exist: add redundancy or improve the reliability of the component. In reality, the most effective approach to almost any system will be some combination of these two approaches, in varying orders of magnitude for each component. Therefore, this research tries to answer the question of how to divide funds, between adding redundancy and improving the reliability of components, to most cost effectively improve the life cycle metrics of a system. While this question is relevant to any complex system, this research focuses on one type of system in particular: Separate Spacecraft Interferometers (SSI). Quantitative models are developed to analyze the key life cycle metrics of different SSI system architectures. Next, tools are developed to compare a given set of architectures in terms of total performance, by coupling different life cycle metrics together into one performance metric. Optimization tools, such as simulated annealing and genetic algorithms, are then used to search the entire design space to find the "optimal" architecture design. Sensitivity analysis tools have been developed to determine how sensitive the results of these analyses are to uncertain user defined parameters. Finally, several possibilities for the future work that could be done in this area of research are presented.

The Financial Cost of Export Credit Guarantee Programs,

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-06-01

a percentage of a high esti- mate of payments due. Table A.5 RATIOS, TERMS, AND RECOVERY RATES Item Hermes ECGD COFACE Eximbank Ratio of outstanding...Immediate Liquidation Case ...... 8 2. Income Statement: Hold to Maturity, Certain Repayment ................................... 9 3. Income Statement: Hold ...to Maturity, Uncertain Repayment, Risk Neutrality .................... 10 4. Income Statement: Hold to Maturity, Uncertain Repayment, Risk Aversion

One plant, two plants, three plants, four: does soil carbon respond to diversifying by one plant more? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grandy, S.

2013-12-01

Plant diversity is known to strongly influence aboveground ecosystem functions, but our understanding of its effects on belowground carbon (C) cycling has not kept pace. We know in broad terms that the belowground implications of reducing plant diversity include changes in soil nutrient cycling and biological communities, but remain uncertain about the specific links between plant diversity, soil microbial communities, and soil C cycling. Our knowledge gap is especially wide in agricultural systems, which comprise ~50% of the contiguous U.S. and differ from non-managed systems because diversity: (1) occurs primarily over time (i.e. crop rotations) rather than in space (i.e. inter-cropping); (2) exists as one of multiple management factors that potentially regulates soil C dynamics; and (3) is almost always low, with the addition or subtraction of a single plant species often representing a substantial change in diversity. I have been addressing the uncertain relationships between agricultural plant diversity and soil C cycling with a multi-tiered approach that includes a global meta-analysis, site-specific field manipulations, and intensive laboratory analyses. The meta-analysis using 122 studies shows that compared to single-crop monocultures, rotations increased soil microbial biomass C by 20.7% and microbial biomass N by 26.1% as well as total soil C and N. In a complimentary field study at the W.K. Kellogg Biological Station LTER Cropping Biodiversity Gradient Experiment we examined microbial communities, C cycling processes, and trace gas emissions in five rotation sequences varying in complexity from continuous corn monoculture to a five crop three-year rotation. Finding striking differences between monocultures and systems with more complex plant communities, these results confirm our meta-analysis, and highlight the strong effects of diversifying plant communities in agricultural systems. A complimentary lab study examining decomposition processes in monocultures and more diverse rotations shows that rotation soils process chemically complex C more rapidly. My studies point to complex relationships between the chemistry of substrate inputs and their fate in soils, while also emphasizing an important management consideration: maintaining soil biological functions and ecosystem services in managed agricultural systems requires the rotation of different crops, rather than the production of single crop monocultures.

NegBio: a high-performance tool for negation and uncertainty detection in radiology reports.

PubMed

Peng, Yifan; Wang, Xiaosong; Lu, Le; Bagheri, Mohammadhadi; Summers, Ronald; Lu, Zhiyong

2018-01-01

Negative and uncertain medical findings are frequent in radiology reports, but discriminating them from positive findings remains challenging for information extraction. Here, we propose a new algorithm, NegBio, to detect negative and uncertain findings in radiology reports. Unlike previous rule-based methods, NegBio utilizes patterns on universal dependencies to identify the scope of triggers that are indicative of negation or uncertainty. We evaluated NegBio on four datasets, including two public benchmarking corpora of radiology reports, a new radiology corpus that we annotated for this work, and a public corpus of general clinical texts. Evaluation on these datasets demonstrates that NegBio is highly accurate for detecting negative and uncertain findings and compares favorably to a widely-used state-of-the-art system NegEx (an average of 9.5% improvement in precision and 5.1% in F1-score). https://github.com/ncbi-nlp/NegBio.

Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGuire, A. David; Anderson, Leif G.; Christensen, Torben R.; Dallimore, Scott; Guo, Laodong; Hayes, Daniel J.; Heimann, Martin; Lorenson, T.D.; Macdonald, Robie W.; Roulet, Nigel

2009-01-01

The recent warming in the Arctic is affecting a broad spectrum of physical, ecological, and human/cultural systems that may be irreversible on century time scales and have the potential to cause rapid changes in the earth system. The response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to changes in climate is a major issue of global concern, yet there has not been a comprehensive review of the status of the contemporary carbon cycle of the Arctic and its response to climate change. This review is designed to clarify key uncertainties and vulnerabilities in the response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to ongoing climatic change. While it is clear that there are substantial stocks of carbon in the Arctic, there are also significant uncertainties associated with the magnitude of organic matter stocks contained in permafrost and the storage of methane hydrates beneath both subterranean and submerged permafrost of the Arctic. In the context of the global carbon cycle, this review demonstrates that the Arctic plays an important role in the global dynamics of both CO2 and CH4. Studies suggest that the Arctic has been a sink for atmospheric CO2 of between 0 and 0.8 Pg C/yr in recent decades, which is between 0% and 25% of the global net land/ocean flux during the 1990s. The Arctic is a substantial source of CH4 to the atmosphere (between 32 and 112 Tg CH4/yr), primarily because of the large area of wetlands throughout the region. Analyses to date indicate that the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic during the remainder of the 21st century is highly uncertain. To improve the capability to assess the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to projected climate change, we recommend that (1) integrated regional studies be conducted to link observations of carbon dynamics to the processes that are likely to influence those dynamics, and (2) the understanding gained from these integrated studies be incorporated into both uncoupled and fully coupled carbon–climate modeling efforts.

Differential depth distribution of microbial function and putative symbionts through sediment-hosted aquifers in the deep terrestrial subsurface

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Probst, Alexander J.; Ladd, Bethany; Jarett, Jessica K.

An enormous diversity of previously unknown bacteria and archaea has been discovered recently, yet their functional capacities and distributions in the terrestrial subsurface remain uncertain. Here, we continually sampled a CO 2-driven geyser (Colorado Plateau, Utah, USA) over its 5-day eruption cycle to test the hypothesis that stratified, sandstone-hosted aquifers sampled over three phases of the eruption cycle have microbial communities that differ both in membership and function. Genome-resolved metagenomics, single-cell genomics and geochemical analyses confirmed this hypothesis and linked microorganisms to groundwater compositions from different depths. Autotrophic Candidatus “Altiarchaeum sp.” and phylogenetically deep-branching nanoarchaea dominate the deepest groundwater. Amore » nanoarchaeon with limited metabolic capacity is inferred to be a potential symbiont of the Ca. “Altiarchaeum”. Candidate Phyla Radiation bacteria are also present in the deepest groundwater and they are relatively abundant in water from intermediate depths. During the recovery phase of the geyser, microaerophilic Fe- and S-oxidizers have high in situ genome replication rates. Autotrophic Sulfurimonas sustained by aerobic sulfide oxidation and with the capacity for N 2 fixation dominate the shallow aquifer. Overall, 104 different phylum-level lineages are present in water from these subsurface environments, with uncultivated archaea and bacteria partitioned to the deeper subsurface.« less

Gridded anthropogenic emissions inventory and atmospheric transport of carbonyl sulfide in the U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zumkehr, Andrew; Hilton, Timothy W.; Whelan, Mary; Smith, Steve; Campbell, J. Elliott

2017-02-01

Carbonyl sulfide (COS or OCS), the most abundant sulfur-containing gas in the troposphere, has recently emerged as a potentially important atmospheric tracer for the carbon cycle. Atmospheric inverse modeling studies may be able to use existing tower, airborne, and satellite observations of COS to infer information about photosynthesis. However, such analysis relies on gridded anthropogenic COS source estimates that are largely based on industry activity data from over three decades ago. Here we use updated emission factor data and industry activity data to develop a gridded inventory with a 0.1° resolution for the U.S. domain. The inventory includes the primary anthropogenic COS sources including direct emissions from the coal and aluminum industries as well as indirect sources from industrial carbon disulfide emissions. Compared to the previously published inventory, we found that the total anthropogenic source (direct and indirect) is 47% smaller. Using this new gridded inventory to drive the Sulfur Transport and Deposition Model/Weather Research and Forecasting atmospheric transport model, we found that the anthropogenic contribution to COS variation in the troposphere is small relative to the biosphere influence, which is encouraging for carbon cycle applications in this region. Additional anthropogenic sectors with highly uncertain emission factors require further field measurements.

Differential depth distribution of microbial function and putative symbionts through sediment-hosted aquifers in the deep terrestrial subsurface

DOE PAGES

Probst, Alexander J.; Ladd, Bethany; Jarett, Jessica K.; ...

2018-01-29

An enormous diversity of previously unknown bacteria and archaea has been discovered recently, yet their functional capacities and distributions in the terrestrial subsurface remain uncertain. Here, we continually sampled a CO 2-driven geyser (Colorado Plateau, Utah, USA) over its 5-day eruption cycle to test the hypothesis that stratified, sandstone-hosted aquifers sampled over three phases of the eruption cycle have microbial communities that differ both in membership and function. Genome-resolved metagenomics, single-cell genomics and geochemical analyses confirmed this hypothesis and linked microorganisms to groundwater compositions from different depths. Autotrophic Candidatus “Altiarchaeum sp.” and phylogenetically deep-branching nanoarchaea dominate the deepest groundwater. Amore » nanoarchaeon with limited metabolic capacity is inferred to be a potential symbiont of the Ca. “Altiarchaeum”. Candidate Phyla Radiation bacteria are also present in the deepest groundwater and they are relatively abundant in water from intermediate depths. During the recovery phase of the geyser, microaerophilic Fe- and S-oxidizers have high in situ genome replication rates. Autotrophic Sulfurimonas sustained by aerobic sulfide oxidation and with the capacity for N 2 fixation dominate the shallow aquifer. Overall, 104 different phylum-level lineages are present in water from these subsurface environments, with uncultivated archaea and bacteria partitioned to the deeper subsurface.« less

Conceptual Model-Based Systems Biology: Mapping Knowledge and Discovering Gaps in the mRNA Transcription Cycle

PubMed Central

Somekh, Judith; Choder, Mordechai; Dori, Dov

2012-01-01

We propose a Conceptual Model-based Systems Biology framework for qualitative modeling, executing, and eliciting knowledge gaps in molecular biology systems. The framework is an adaptation of Object-Process Methodology (OPM), a graphical and textual executable modeling language. OPM enables concurrent representation of the system's structure—the objects that comprise the system, and behavior—how processes transform objects over time. Applying a top-down approach of recursively zooming into processes, we model a case in point—the mRNA transcription cycle. Starting with this high level cell function, we model increasingly detailed processes along with participating objects. Our modeling approach is capable of modeling molecular processes such as complex formation, localization and trafficking, molecular binding, enzymatic stimulation, and environmental intervention. At the lowest level, similar to the Gene Ontology, all biological processes boil down to three basic molecular functions: catalysis, binding/dissociation, and transporting. During modeling and execution of the mRNA transcription model, we discovered knowledge gaps, which we present and classify into various types. We also show how model execution enhances a coherent model construction. Identification and pinpointing knowledge gaps is an important feature of the framework, as it suggests where research should focus and whether conjectures about uncertain mechanisms fit into the already verified model. PMID:23308089

Analytical Investigation of the Decrease in the Size of the Habitable Zone Due to a Limited CO2 Outgassing Rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbot, Dorian S.

2016-08-01

The habitable zone concept is important because it focuses the scientific search for extraterrestrial life and aids the planning of future telescopes. Recent work has shown that planets near the outer edge of the habitable zone might not actually be able to stay warm and habitable if CO2 outgassing rates are not large enough to maintain high CO2 partial pressures against removal by silicate weathering. In this paper, I use simple equations for the climate and CO2 budget of a planet in the habitable zone that can capture the qualitative behavior of the system. With these equations I derive an analytical formula for an effective outer edge of the habitable zone, including limitations imposed by the CO2 outgassing rate. I then show that climate cycles between a snowball state and a warm climate are only possible beyond this limit if the weathering rate in the snowball climate is smaller than the CO2 outgassing rate (otherwise stable snowball states result). I derive an analytical solution for the climate cycles including a formula for their period in this limit. This work allows us to explore the qualitative effects of weathering processes on the effective outer edge of the habitable zone, which is important because weathering parameterizations are uncertain.

Analytical Investigation of the Decrease in the Size of the Habitable Zone due to Limited CO2 Outgassing Rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbot, D. S.

2016-12-01

The habitable zone concept is important because it focuses the scientific search for extraterrestrial life and aids the planning of future telescopes. Recent work has shown that planets near the outer edge of the habitable zone might not actually be able to stay warm and habitable if CO2 outgassing rates are not large enough to maintain high CO2 partial pressures against removal by silicate weathering. I use simple equations for the climate and CO2 budget of a planet in the habitable zone that can capture the qualitative behavior of the system. With these equations I derive an analytical formula for an effective outer edge of the habitable zone, including limitations imposed by the CO2 outgassing rate. I then show that climate cycles between a Snowball state and a warm climate are only possible beyond this limit if the weathering rate in the Snowball climate is smaller than the CO2 outgassing rate (otherwise stable Snowball states result). I derive an analytical solution for the climate cycles including a formula for their period in this limit. This work allows us to explore the qualitative effects of weathering processes on the effective outer edge of the habitable zone, which is important because weathering parameterizations are uncertain.

Gridded anthropogenic emissions inventory and atmospheric transport of carbonyl sulfide in the U.S.: U.S. Anthropogenic COS Source and Transport

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zumkehr, Andrew; Hilton, Timothy W.; Whelan, Mary

Carbonyl sulfide (COS or OCS), the most abundant sulfur containing gas in the troposphere, has recently emerged as a potentially important atmospheric tracer for the carbon cycle. Atmospheric inverse modeling studies may be able to use existing tower, airborne, and satellite observations of COS to infer information about photosynthesis. However, such analysis relies on gridded anthropogenic COS source estimates that are largely based on industry activity data from over three decades ago. Here we use updated emission factor data and industry activity data to develop a gridded inventory with a 0.1 degree resolution for the U.S. domain. The inventory includesmore » the primary anthropogenic COS sources including direct emissions from the coal and aluminum industries as well as indirect sources from industrial carbon disulfide emissions. Compared to the previously published inventory, we found that the total anthropogenic source (direct and indirect) is 47% smaller. Using this new gridded inventory to drive the STEM/WRF atmospheric transport model, we found that the anthropogenic contribution to COS variation in the troposphere is small relative to the biosphere influence, which is encouraging of carbon cycle applications in this region. Additional anthropogenic sectors with highly uncertain emission factors require further field measurements.« less

Altered brain activation and connectivity during anticipation of uncertain threat in trait anxiety.

PubMed

Geng, Haiyang; Wang, Yi; Gu, Ruolei; Luo, Yue-Jia; Xu, Pengfei; Huang, Yuxia; Li, Xuebing

2018-06-08

In the research field of anxiety, previous studies generally focus on emotional responses following threat. A recent model of anxiety proposes that altered anticipation prior to uncertain threat is related with the development of anxiety. Behavioral findings have built the relationship between anxiety and distinct anticipatory processes including attention, estimation of threat, and emotional responses. However, few studies have characterized the brain organization underlying anticipation of uncertain threat and its role in anxiety. In the present study, we used an emotional anticipation paradigm with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to examine the aforementioned topics by employing brain activation and general psychophysiological interactions (gPPI) analysis. In the activation analysis, we found that high trait anxious individuals showed significantly increased activation in the thalamus, middle temporal gyrus (MTG), and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC), as well as decreased activation in the precuneus, during anticipation of uncertain threat compared to the certain condition. In the gPPI analysis, the key regions including the amygdala, dmPFC, and precuneus showed altered connections with distributed brain areas including the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC), dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC), inferior parietal sulcus (IPS), insula, para-hippocampus gyrus (PHA), thalamus, and MTG involved in anticipation of uncertain threat in anxious individuals. Taken together, our findings indicate that during the anticipation of uncertain threat, anxious individuals showed altered activations and functional connectivity in widely distributed brain areas, which may be critical for abnormal perception, estimation, and emotion reactions during the anticipation of uncertain threat. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Real Options Approach to Quantity and Cost Optimization for Lifetime and Bridge Buys of Parts

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-01

demand • Asymmetric over- and under-buy penalties • Non-negligible inventory costs • Cost of money (non-zero WACC ) • Uncertain end of support date...ROA for WACC of 12%. The optimum life- cycle buy size distribution for the example case from DES and ROA for WACC of 3%. ~1 part difference...of a variable end-of-support (EOS) date – A fundamental problem that needs to be addressed is how to set the discount factor ( WACC ) for the

Multi-scale temporal patterns in fish presence in a high-velocity tidal channel

PubMed Central

Viehman, Haley A.

2017-01-01

The natural variation of fish presence in high-velocity tidal channels is not well understood. A better understanding of fish use of these areas would aid in predicting fish interactions with marine hydrokinetic (MHK) devices, the effects of which are uncertain but of high concern. To characterize the patterns in fish presence at a tidal energy site in Cobscook Bay, Maine, we examined two years of hydroacoustic data continuously collected at the proposed depth of an MHK turbine with a bottom-mounted, side-looking echosounder. The maximum number of fish counted per hour ranged from hundreds in the early spring to over 1,000 in the fall. Counts varied greatly with tidal and diel cycles in a seasonally changing relationship, likely linked to the seasonally changing fish community of the bay. In the winter and spring, higher hourly counts were generally confined to ebb tides and low slack tides near sunrise and sunset. In summer and fall of each year, the highest fish counts shifted to night and occurred during ebb, low slack, and flood tides. Fish counts were not linked to current speed, and did not decrease as current speed increased, contrary to observations at other tidal power sites. As fish counts may be proportional to the encounter rate of fish with an MHK turbine at the same depth, highly variable counts indicate that the risk to fish is similarly variable. The links between fish presence and environmental cycles at this site will likely be present at other locations with similar environmental forcing, making these observations useful in predicting potential fish interactions at tidal energy sites worldwide. PMID:28493894

Multi-scale temporal patterns in fish presence in a high-velocity tidal channel.

PubMed

Viehman, Haley A; Zydlewski, Gayle Barbin

2017-01-01

The natural variation of fish presence in high-velocity tidal channels is not well understood. A better understanding of fish use of these areas would aid in predicting fish interactions with marine hydrokinetic (MHK) devices, the effects of which are uncertain but of high concern. To characterize the patterns in fish presence at a tidal energy site in Cobscook Bay, Maine, we examined two years of hydroacoustic data continuously collected at the proposed depth of an MHK turbine with a bottom-mounted, side-looking echosounder. The maximum number of fish counted per hour ranged from hundreds in the early spring to over 1,000 in the fall. Counts varied greatly with tidal and diel cycles in a seasonally changing relationship, likely linked to the seasonally changing fish community of the bay. In the winter and spring, higher hourly counts were generally confined to ebb tides and low slack tides near sunrise and sunset. In summer and fall of each year, the highest fish counts shifted to night and occurred during ebb, low slack, and flood tides. Fish counts were not linked to current speed, and did not decrease as current speed increased, contrary to observations at other tidal power sites. As fish counts may be proportional to the encounter rate of fish with an MHK turbine at the same depth, highly variable counts indicate that the risk to fish is similarly variable. The links between fish presence and environmental cycles at this site will likely be present at other locations with similar environmental forcing, making these observations useful in predicting potential fish interactions at tidal energy sites worldwide.

Multi-scale temporal patterns in fish presence in a high-velocity tidal channel

DOE PAGES

Viehman, Haley A.; Zydlewski, Gayle Barbin; Hewitt, Judi

2017-05-11

The natural variation of fish presence in high-velocity tidal channels is not well understood. A better understanding of fish use of these areas would aid in predicting fish interactions with marine hydrokinetic (MHK) devices, the effects of which are uncertain but of high concern. To characterize the patterns in fish presence at a tidal energy site in Cobscook Bay, Maine, we examined two years of hydroacoustic data continuously collected at the proposed depth of an MHK turbine with a bottom-mounted, side-looking echosounder. The maximum number of fish counted per hour ranged from hundreds in the early spring to over 1,000more » in the fall. Counts varied greatly with tidal and diel cycles in a seasonally changing relationship, likely linked to the seasonally changing fish community of the bay. In the winter and spring, higher hourly counts were generally confined to ebb tides and low slack tides near sunrise and sunset. In summer and fall of each year, the highest fish counts shifted to night and occurred during ebb, low slack, and flood tides. Fish counts were not linked to current speed, and did not decrease as current speed increased, contrary to observations at other tidal power sites. As fish counts may be proportional to the encounter rate of fish with an MHK turbine at the same depth, highly variable counts indicate that the risk to fish is similarly variable. The links between fish presence and environmental cycles at this site will likely be present at other locations with similar environmental forcing, making these observations useful in predicting potential fish interactions at tidal energy sites worldwide.« less

Multi-scale temporal patterns in fish presence in a high-velocity tidal channel

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Viehman, Haley A.; Zydlewski, Gayle Barbin; Hewitt, Judi

The natural variation of fish presence in high-velocity tidal channels is not well understood. A better understanding of fish use of these areas would aid in predicting fish interactions with marine hydrokinetic (MHK) devices, the effects of which are uncertain but of high concern. To characterize the patterns in fish presence at a tidal energy site in Cobscook Bay, Maine, we examined two years of hydroacoustic data continuously collected at the proposed depth of an MHK turbine with a bottom-mounted, side-looking echosounder. The maximum number of fish counted per hour ranged from hundreds in the early spring to over 1,000more » in the fall. Counts varied greatly with tidal and diel cycles in a seasonally changing relationship, likely linked to the seasonally changing fish community of the bay. In the winter and spring, higher hourly counts were generally confined to ebb tides and low slack tides near sunrise and sunset. In summer and fall of each year, the highest fish counts shifted to night and occurred during ebb, low slack, and flood tides. Fish counts were not linked to current speed, and did not decrease as current speed increased, contrary to observations at other tidal power sites. As fish counts may be proportional to the encounter rate of fish with an MHK turbine at the same depth, highly variable counts indicate that the risk to fish is similarly variable. The links between fish presence and environmental cycles at this site will likely be present at other locations with similar environmental forcing, making these observations useful in predicting potential fish interactions at tidal energy sites worldwide.« less

Patterns and controls of mercury accumulation in sediments from three thermokarst lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burke, Samantha M.; Zimmerman, Christian E.; Branfireun, Brian A.; Koch, Joshua C.; Swanson, Heidi K.

2018-01-01

The biogeochemical cycle of mercury will be influenced by climate change, particularly at higher latitudes. Investigations of historical mercury accumulation in lake sediments inform future predictions as to how climate change might affect mercury biogeochemistry; however, in regions with a paucity of data, such as the thermokarst-rich Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska (ACP), the trajectory of mercury accumulation in lake sediments is particularly uncertain. Sediment cores from three thermokarst lakes on the ACP were analyzed to understand changes in, and drivers of, Hg accumulation over the past ~ 100 years. Mercury accumulation in two of the three lakes was variable and high over the past century (91.96 and 78.6 µg/m2/year), and largely controlled by sedimentation rate. Mercury accumulation in the third lake was lower (14.2 µg/m2/year), more temporally uniform, and was more strongly related to sediment Hg concentration than sedimentation rate. Sediment mercury concentrations were quantitatively related to measures of sediment composition and VRS-inferred chlorophyll a, and sedimentation rates were related to various catchment characteristics. These results were compared to data from 37 previously studied Arctic and Alaskan lakes. Results from the meta-analysis indicate that thermokarst lakes have significantly higher and more variable Hg accumulation rates than non-thermokarst lakes, suggesting that certain properties (e.g., thermal erosion, thaw slumping, low hydraulic conductivity) likely make lakes prone to high and variable Hg accumulation rates. Differences and high variability in Hg accumulation among high latitude lakes highlight the complexity of predicting future climate-related change impacts on mercury cycling in these environments.

How Robust Are the Surface Temperature Fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Meridional Circulation on Monthly Time Scales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander-Turner, R.; Ortega, P.; Robson, J. I.

2018-04-01

It has been suggested that changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can drive sea surface temperature (SST) on monthly time scales (Duchez et al., 2016, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GB005667). However, with only 11 years of continuous observations, the validity of this result over longer, or different, time periods is uncertain. In this study, we use a 120 yearlong control simulation from a high-resolution climate model to test the robustness of the AMOC fingerprints. The model reproduces the observed AMOC seasonal cycle and its variability, and the observed 5-month lagged AMOC-SST fingerprints derived from 11 years of data. However, the AMOC-SST fingerprints are very sensitive to the particular time period considered. In particular, both the Florida current and the upper mid-ocean transport produce highly inconsistent fingerprints when using time periods shorter than 30 years. Therefore, several decades of RAPID observations will be necessary to determine the real impact of the AMOC on SSTs at monthly time scales.

Spatial distribution of arable and abandoned land across former Soviet Union countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lesiv, Myroslava; Schepaschenko, Dmitry; Moltchanova, Elena; Bun, Rostyslav; Dürauer, Martina; Prishchepov, Alexander V.; Schierhorn, Florian; Estel, Stephan; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Alcántara, Camilo; Kussul, Natalia; Shchepashchenko, Maria; Kutovaya, Olga; Martynenko, Olga; Karminov, Viktor; Shvidenko, Anatoly; Havlik, Petr; Kraxner, Florian; See, Linda; Fritz, Steffen

2018-04-01

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of agricultural abandonment following the collapse of the Soviet Union is highly uncertain. To help improve this situation, we have developed a new map of arable and abandoned land for 2010 at a 10 arc-second resolution. We have fused together existing land cover and land use maps at different temporal and spatial scales for the former Soviet Union (fSU) using a training data set collected from visual interpretation of very high resolution (VHR) imagery. We have also collected an independent validation data set to assess the map accuracy. The overall accuracies of the map by region and country, i.e. Caucasus, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Republic of Moldova, Russian Federation and Ukraine, are 90±2%, 84±2%, 92±1%, 78±3%, 95±1%, 83±2%, respectively. This new product can be used for numerous applications including the modelling of biogeochemical cycles, land-use modelling, the assessment of trade-offs between ecosystem services and land-use potentials (e.g., agricultural production), among others.

Spatial distribution of arable and abandoned land across former Soviet Union countries.

PubMed

Lesiv, Myroslava; Schepaschenko, Dmitry; Moltchanova, Elena; Bun, Rostyslav; Dürauer, Martina; Prishchepov, Alexander V; Schierhorn, Florian; Estel, Stephan; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Alcántara, Camilo; Kussul, Natalia; Shchepashchenko, Maria; Kutovaya, Olga; Martynenko, Olga; Karminov, Viktor; Shvidenko, Anatoly; Havlik, Petr; Kraxner, Florian; See, Linda; Fritz, Steffen

2018-04-03

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of agricultural abandonment following the collapse of the Soviet Union is highly uncertain. To help improve this situation, we have developed a new map of arable and abandoned land for 2010 at a 10 arc-second resolution. We have fused together existing land cover and land use maps at different temporal and spatial scales for the former Soviet Union (fSU) using a training data set collected from visual interpretation of very high resolution (VHR) imagery. We have also collected an independent validation data set to assess the map accuracy. The overall accuracies of the map by region and country, i.e. Caucasus, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Republic of Moldova, Russian Federation and Ukraine, are 90±2%, 84±2%, 92±1%, 78±3%, 95±1%, 83±2%, respectively. This new product can be used for numerous applications including the modelling of biogeochemical cycles, land-use modelling, the assessment of trade-offs between ecosystem services and land-use potentials (e.g., agricultural production), among others.

Spatial distribution of arable and abandoned land across former Soviet Union countries

PubMed Central

Lesiv, Myroslava; Schepaschenko, Dmitry; Moltchanova, Elena; Bun, Rostyslav; Dürauer, Martina; Prishchepov, Alexander V.; Schierhorn, Florian; Estel, Stephan; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Alcántara, Camilo; Kussul, Natalia; Shchepashchenko, Maria; Kutovaya, Olga; Martynenko, Olga; Karminov, Viktor; Shvidenko, Anatoly; Havlik, Petr; Kraxner, Florian; See, Linda; Fritz, Steffen

2018-01-01

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of agricultural abandonment following the collapse of the Soviet Union is highly uncertain. To help improve this situation, we have developed a new map of arable and abandoned land for 2010 at a 10 arc-second resolution. We have fused together existing land cover and land use maps at different temporal and spatial scales for the former Soviet Union (fSU) using a training data set collected from visual interpretation of very high resolution (VHR) imagery. We have also collected an independent validation data set to assess the map accuracy. The overall accuracies of the map by region and country, i.e. Caucasus, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Republic of Moldova, Russian Federation and Ukraine, are 90±2%, 84±2%, 92±1%, 78±3%, 95±1%, 83±2%, respectively. This new product can be used for numerous applications including the modelling of biogeochemical cycles, land-use modelling, the assessment of trade-offs between ecosystem services and land-use potentials (e.g., agricultural production), among others. PMID:29611843

Statement Testimony of The Honorable Zachary J. Lemnios Director, Defense Research and Engineering Before the United States House of Representatives Committee on Armed Services Subcommittee on Terrorism, Unconventional Threats and Capabilities

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-23

nationwide virtual science libary adapted for Afghanistan’s needs. Prepare for an Uncertain Future In preparing for an uncertain future, a...to assess the military implications of the ubiquitous availability of high performance analog, digital , electro-optical, radio frequency and signal

Life-Cycle Costing of Food Waste Management in Denmark: Importance of Indirect Effects.

PubMed

Martinez-Sanchez, Veronica; Tonini, Davide; Møller, Flemming; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

2016-04-19

Prevention has been suggested as the preferred food waste management solution compared to alternatives such as conversion to animal fodder or to energy. In this study we used societal life-cycle costing, as a welfare economic assessment, and environmental life-cycle costing, as a financial assessment combined with life-cycle assessment, to evaluate food waste management. Both life-cycle costing assessments included direct and indirect effects. The latter are related to income effects, accounting for the marginal consumption induced when alternative scenarios lead to different household expenses, and the land-use-changes effect, associated with food production. The results highlighted that prevention, while providing the highest welfare gains as more services/goods could be consumed with the same income, could also incur the highest environmental impacts if the monetary savings from unpurchased food commodities were spent on goods/services with a more environmentally damaging production than that of the (prevented) food. This was not the case when savings were used, e.g., for health care, education, and insurances. This study demonstrates that income effects, although uncertain, should be included whenever alternative scenarios incur different financial costs. Furthermore, it highlights that food prevention measures should not only demote the purchase of unconsumed food but also promote a low-impact use of the savings generated.

Broadening the study of inductive reasoning: confirmation judgments with uncertain evidence.

PubMed

Mastropasqua, Tommaso; Crupi, Vincenzo; Tentori, Katya

2010-10-01

Although evidence in real life is often uncertain, the psychology of inductive reasoning has, so far, been confined to certain evidence. The present study extends previous research by investigating whether people properly estimate the impact of uncertain evidence on a given hypothesis. Two experiments are reported, in which the uncertainty of evidence is explicitly (by means of numerical values) versus implicitly (by means of ambiguous pictures) manipulated. The results show that people's judgments are highly correlated with those predicted by normatively sound Bayesian measures of impact. This sensitivity to the degree of evidential uncertainty supports the centrality of inductive reasoning in cognition and opens the path to the study of this issue in more naturalistic settings.

Determinants of number-specific recall error of last menstrual period: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

van Oppenraaij, R H F; Eilers, P H C; Willemsen, S P; van Dunné, F M; Exalto, N; Steegers, E A P

2015-05-01

To assess the digit preference for last menstrual period (LMP) dates, associated determinants and impact on obstetric outcome. Retrospective cohort study. University medical centre (the Netherlands). Cohort of 24 665 LMP records and a subgroup of 4630 cases with known crown-rump length (CRL) measurement, and obstetric outcome. Digit preference was determined by comparing the observed to expected counts of each day. Associated determinants were identified by multivariate regression analysis. Differences in obstetric outcome between LMP and CRL dating were analysed. (Non)deprived neighbourhood, cycle irregularity, certainty of LMP date, maternal age, smoking, body mass index, parity and ultrasound investigator. Preterm and post-term delivery. LMP digit preference for the first [odds ratio (OR), 1.28; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.20-1.36], fifth (OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.03-1.17), 10th (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.09-1.25), 15th (OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.23-1.40), 20th (OR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.15-1.30) and 25th (OR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.01-1.15) days of the month occurred more often than expected. Digit preference occurred more frequently in women living in a deprived neighbourhood (OR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.06-1.39), with uncertain LMP (OR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.63-2.52) or irregular cycle (OR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.06-1.44). More post-term (≥42 weeks) deliveries (OR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.05-1.54) were observed in LMP dating. This effect was larger in women with a digit preference (OR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.03-2.37). LMP digit preference occurs more often in women living in deprived neighbourhoods, with uncertain LMP or an irregular cycle. LMP-dated pregnancies are associated with more post-term pregnancies. © 2014 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Enhancing atmospheric mercury research in China to improve the current understanding of the global mercury cycle: the need for urgent and closely coordinated efforts.

PubMed

Ci, Zhijia; Zhang, Xiaoshan; Wang, Zhangwei

2012-06-05

The current understanding of the global mercury (Hg) cycle remains uncertain because Hg behavior in the environment is very complicated. The special property of Hg causes the atmosphere to be the most important medium for worldwide dispersion and transformation. The source and fate of atmospheric Hg and its interaction with the surface environment are the essential topics in the global Hg cycle. Recent declining measurement trends of Hg in the atmosphere are in apparent conflict with the increasing trends in global anthropogenic Hg emissions. As the single largest country contributor of anthropogenic Hg emission, China's role in the global Hg cycle will become more and more important in the context of the decreasing man-made Hg emission from developed regions. However, much less Hg information in China is available. As a global pollutant which undergoes long-range transport and is persistence in the environment, increasing Hg knowledge in China could not only promote the Hg regulation in this country but also improve the understanding of the fundamental of the global Hg cycle and further push the abatement of this toxin on a global scale. Then the atmospheric Hg research in China may be a breakthrough for improving the current understanding of the global Hg cycle. However, due to the complex behavior of Hg in the atmosphere, a deeper understanding of the atmospheric Hg cycle in China needs greater cooperation across fields.

Interpretation bias for uncertain threat: A replication and extension.

PubMed

Oglesby, Mary E; Raines, Amanda M; Short, Nicole A; Capron, Daniel W; Schmidt, Norman B

2016-06-01

Intolerance of uncertainty (IU) has been proposed as an important transdiagnostic variable within various anxiety-related disorders. Research has suggested that individuals high in IU may interpret ambiguous information in a more threatening manner, suggesting a negative interpretation bias for uncertain information. However, interpretation biases within IU have not been adequately tested in the literature. The current study evaluated negative interpretation biases for uncertain information by directly measuring an individual's interpretations of ambiguous information across two samples. Participants consisted of 76 (Study 1; 72.4% female) and 31 (Study 2; 81% female) undergraduate students. Results indicated that individuals high in IU interpret ambiguous scenarios as more threatening compared to negative and/or positive scenarios (β = .45, p = .02). In addition, individuals high in IU showed a negative interpretation bias for ambiguous information, but not benign information (Study 1: β = -.40, p < .001; Study 2: β = -.57, p = .002). Future research should attempt to replicate these findings within clinical populations. In addition, future work would benefit from the inclusion of behavioral assessments of IU. These findings are the first to detect the presence of a negative interpretation bias for uncertain information among individuals high in IU utilizing a task designed to directly measure an individual's interpretation of information. Given the efficacy and low economic burden associated with interpretation bias modification protocols, and the transdiagnostic nature of IU, targeting IU within these protocols could have a tremendous public health impact. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploring How Changing Monsoonal Dynamics and Human Pressures Challenge Multi-Reservoir Management of Food-Energy-Water Tradeoffs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, J.; Reed, P. M.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Oyler, J.; Nicholas, R.

2017-12-01

Multi-reservoir systems require robust and adaptive control policies capable of managing evolving hydroclimatic variability and human demands across a wide range of time scales. This is especially true for systems with high intra-annual and inter-annual variability, such as monsoonal river systems that need to buffer against seasonal droughts while also managing extreme floods. Moreover, the timing, intensity, duration, and frequency of these hydrologic extremes may be affected by deeply uncertain changes in socioeconomic and climatic pressures. This study contributes an innovative method for exploring how possible changes in the timing and magnitude of monsoonal seasonal extremes impact the robustness of reservoir operating policies optimized to historical conditions assuming stationarity. We illustrate this analysis on the Red River basin in Vietnam, where reservoirs and dams serve as important sources of hydropower production, irrigable water supply, and flood protection for the capital city of Hanoi. Applying our scenario discovery approach, we find food-energy-water tradeoffs are exacerbated by potential hydrologic shifts, with wetter worlds threatening the ability of operating strategies to manage flood risk and drier worlds threatening their ability to provide sufficient water supply and hydropower production, especially if demands increase. Most notably, though, amplification of the within-year monsoonal cycle and increased inter-annual variability threaten all of the above. These findings highlight the importance of considering changes in both lower order moments of annual streamflow and intra-annual monsoonal behavior when evaluating the robustness of alternative water systems control strategies for managing deeply uncertain futures.

Robust optimization of supersonic ORC nozzle guide vanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bufi, Elio A.; Cinnella, Paola

2017-03-01

An efficient Robust Optimization (RO) strategy is developed for the design of 2D supersonic Organic Rankine Cycle turbine expanders. The dense gas effects are not-negligible for this application and they are taken into account describing the thermodynamics by means of the Peng-Robinson-Stryjek-Vera equation of state. The design methodology combines an Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) loop based on a Bayesian kriging model of the system response to the uncertain parameters, used to approximate statistics (mean and variance) of the uncertain system output, a CFD solver, and a multi-objective non-dominated sorting algorithm (NSGA), also based on a Kriging surrogate of the multi-objective fitness function, along with an adaptive infill strategy for surrogate enrichment at each generation of the NSGA. The objective functions are the average and variance of the isentropic efficiency. The blade shape is parametrized by means of a Free Form Deformation (FFD) approach. The robust optimal blades are compared to the baseline design (based on the Method of Characteristics) and to a blade obtained by means of a deterministic CFD-based optimization.

Adaptive Control for Uncertain Nonlinear Multi-Input Multi-Output Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cao, Chengyu (Inventor); Hovakimyan, Naira (Inventor); Xargay, Enric (Inventor)

2014-01-01

Systems and methods of adaptive control for uncertain nonlinear multi-input multi-output systems in the presence of significant unmatched uncertainty with assured performance are provided. The need for gain-scheduling is eliminated through the use of bandwidth-limited (low-pass) filtering in the control channel, which appropriately attenuates the high frequencies typically appearing in fast adaptation situations and preserves the robustness margins in the presence of fast adaptation.

Overcoming Learning Aversion in Evaluating and Managing Uncertain Risks.

PubMed

Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

2015-10-01

Decision biases can distort cost-benefit evaluations of uncertain risks, leading to risk management policy decisions with predictably high retrospective regret. We argue that well-documented decision biases encourage learning aversion, or predictably suboptimal learning and premature decision making in the face of high uncertainty about the costs, risks, and benefits of proposed changes. Biases such as narrow framing, overconfidence, confirmation bias, optimism bias, ambiguity aversion, and hyperbolic discounting of the immediate costs and delayed benefits of learning, contribute to deficient individual and group learning, avoidance of information seeking, underestimation of the value of further information, and hence needlessly inaccurate risk-cost-benefit estimates and suboptimal risk management decisions. In practice, such biases can create predictable regret in selection of potential risk-reducing regulations. Low-regret learning strategies based on computational reinforcement learning models can potentially overcome some of these suboptimal decision processes by replacing aversion to uncertain probabilities with actions calculated to balance exploration (deliberate experimentation and uncertainty reduction) and exploitation (taking actions to maximize the sum of expected immediate reward, expected discounted future reward, and value of information). We discuss the proposed framework for understanding and overcoming learning aversion and for implementing low-regret learning strategies using regulation of air pollutants with uncertain health effects as an example. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

An exploration of Intolerance of Uncertainty and memory bias.

PubMed

Francis, Kylie; Dugas, Michel J; Ricard, Nathalie C

2016-09-01

Research suggests that individuals high in Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU) have information processing biases, which may explain the close relationship between IU and worry. Specifically, high IU individuals show an attentional bias for uncertainty, and negatively interpret uncertain information. However, evidence of a memory bias for uncertainty among high IU individuals is limited. This study therefore explored the relationship between IU and memory for uncertainty. In two separate studies, explicit and implicit memory for uncertain compared to other types of words was assessed. Cognitive avoidance and other factors that could influence information processing were also examined. IUS Factor 1 was a significant positive predictor of explicit memory for positive words, and IUS Factor 2 a significant negative predictor of implicit memory for positive words. Stimulus relevance and vocabulary were significant predictors of implicit memory for uncertain words. Cognitive avoidance was a significant predictor of both explicit and implicit memory for threat words. Female gender was a significant predictor of implicit memory for uncertain and neutral words. Word stimuli such as those used in these studies may not be the optimal way of assessing information processing biases related to IU. In addition, the predominantly female, largely student sample may limit the generalizability of the findings. Future research focusing on IU factors, stimulus relevance, and both explicit and implicit memory, was recommended. The potential role of cognitive avoidance on memory, information processing, and worry was explored. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Drainage Reduces CO2 Uptake and CH4 Emissions in a Siberian Permafrost Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kittler, Fanny; Heimann, Martin; Kolle, Olaf; Zimov, Nikita; Zimov, Sergei; Göckede, Mathias

2017-12-01

Permafrost landscapes in northern high latitudes with their massive organic carbon stocks are an important, poorly known, component of the global carbon cycle. However, in light of future Arctic warming, the sustainability of these carbon pools is uncertain. To a large part, this is due to a limited understanding of the carbon cycle processes because of sparse observations in Arctic permafrost ecosystems. Here we present an eddy covariance data set covering more than 3 years of continuous CO2 and CH4 flux observations within a moist tussock tundra ecosystem near Chersky in north-eastern Siberia. Through parallel observations of a disturbed (drained) area and a control area nearby, we aim to evaluate the long-term effects of a persistently lowered water table on the net vertical carbon exchange budgets and the dominating biogeochemical mechanisms. Persistently drier soils trigger systematic shifts in the tundra ecosystem carbon cycle patterns. Both, uptake rates of CO2 and emissions of CH4 decreased. Year-round measurements emphasize the importance of the non-growing season—in particular the "zero-curtain" period in the fall—to the annual budget. Approximately 60% of the CO2 uptake in the growing season is lost during the cold seasons, while CH4 emissions during the non-growing season account for 30% of the annual budget. Year-to-year variability in temperature conditions during the late growing season was identified as the primary control of the interannual variability observed in the CO2 and CH4 fluxes.

Use of dynamical downscaling to improve the simulation of Central U.S. warm season precipitation in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harding, Keith J.; Snyder, Peter K.; Liess, Stefan

2013-11-01

supporting exceptionally productive agricultural lands, the Central U.S. is susceptible to severe droughts and floods. Such precipitation extremes are expected to worsen with climate change. However, future projections are highly uncertain as global climate models (GCMs) generally fail to resolve precipitation extremes. In this study, we assess how well models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulate summer means, variability, extremes, and the diurnal cycle of Central U.S. summer rainfall. Output from a subset of historical CMIP5 simulations are used to drive the Weather Research and Forecasting model to determine whether dynamical downscaling improves the representation of Central U.S. rainfall. We investigate which boundary conditions influence dynamically downscaled precipitation estimates and identify GCMs that can reasonably simulate precipitation when downscaled. The CMIP5 models simulate the seasonal mean and variability of summer rainfall reasonably well but fail to resolve extremes, the diurnal cycle, and the dynamic forcing of precipitation. Downscaling to 30 km improves these characteristics of precipitation, with the greatest improvement in the representation of extremes. Additionally, sizeable diurnal cycle improvements occur with higher (10 km) resolution and convective parameterization disabled, as the daily rainfall peak shifts 4 h closer to observations than 30 km resolution simulations. This lends greater confidence that the mechanisms responsible for producing rainfall are better simulated. Because dynamical downscaling can more accurately simulate these aspects of Central U.S. summer rainfall, policymakers can have added confidence in dynamically downscaled rainfall projections, allowing for more targeted adaptation and mitigation.

Life cycle assessment and grid electricity: what do we know and what can we know?

PubMed

Weber, Christopher L; Jiaramillo, Paulina; Marriott, Joe; Samaras, Constantine

2010-03-15

The generation and distribution of electricity comprises nearly 40% of U.S. CO(2), emissions, as well as large shares of SO(2), NO(x), small particulates, and other toxins. Thus, correctly accounting for these electricity-related environmental releases is of great importance in life cycle assessment of products and processes. Unfortunately, there is no agreed-upon protocol for accounting for the environmental emissions associated with electricity, as well as significant uncertainty in the estimates. Here, we explore the limits of current knowledge about grid electricity in LCA and carbon footprinting for the U.S. electrical grid, and show that differences in standards, protocols, and reporting organizations can lead to important differences in estimates of CO(2) SO(2), and NO(x) emissions factors. We find a considerable divergence in published values for grid emissions factor in the U.S. We discuss the implications of this divergence and list recommendations for a standardized approach to accounting for air pollution emissions in life cycle assessment and policy analyses in a world with incomplete and uncertain information.

Assessing spatiotemporal changes in forest carbon turnover times in observational data and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, K.; Smith, W. K.; Trugman, A. T.; van Mantgem, P.; Peng, C.; Condit, R.; Anderegg, W.

2017-12-01

Forests influence global carbon and water cycles, biophysical land-atmosphere feedbacks, and atmospheric composition. The capacity of forests to sequester atmospheric CO2 in a changing climate depends not only on the response of carbon uptake (i.e., gross primary productivity) but also on the simultaneous change in carbon residence time. However, changes in carbon residence with climate change are uncertain, impacting the accuracy of predictions of future terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics. Here, we use long-term forest inventory data representative of tropical, temperate, and boreal forests; satellite-based estimates of net primary productivity and vegetation carbon stock; and six models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to investigate spatiotemporal trends in carbon residence time and its relation to climate. Forest inventory and satellite-based estimates of carbon residence time show a pervasive decreasing trend across global forests. In contrast, the CMIP5 models diverge in predicting historical and future trends in carbon residence time. Divergence across CMIP5 models indicate carbon turnover times are not well constrained by observations, which likely contributes to large variability in future carbon cycle projections.

Astronomical pacing of the global silica cycle recorded in Mesozoic bedded cherts.

PubMed

Ikeda, Masayuki; Tada, Ryuji; Ozaki, Kazumi

2017-06-07

The global silica cycle is an important component of the long-term climate system, yet its controlling factors are largely uncertain due to poorly constrained proxy records. Here we present a ∼70 Myr-long record of early Mesozoic biogenic silica (BSi) flux from radiolarian chert in Japan. Average low-mid-latitude BSi burial flux in the superocean Panthalassa is ∼90% of that of the modern global ocean and relative amplitude varied by ∼20-50% over the 100 kyr to 30 Myr orbital cycles during the early Mesozoic. We hypothesize that BSi in chert was a major sink for oceanic dissolved silica (DSi), with fluctuations proportional to DSi input from chemical weathering on timescales longer than the residence time of DSi (<∼100 Kyr). Chemical weathering rates estimated by the GEOCARBSULFvolc model support these hypotheses, excluding the volcanism-driven oceanic anoxic events of the Early-Middle Triassic and Toarcian that exceed model limits. We propose that the Mega monsoon of the supercontinent Pangea nonlinearly amplified the orbitally paced chemical weathering that drove BSi burial during the early Mesozoic greenhouse world.

Astronomical pacing of the global silica cycle recorded in Mesozoic bedded cherts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikeda, Masayuki; Tada, Ryuji; Ozaki, Kazumi

2017-06-01

The global silica cycle is an important component of the long-term climate system, yet its controlling factors are largely uncertain due to poorly constrained proxy records. Here we present a ~70 Myr-long record of early Mesozoic biogenic silica (BSi) flux from radiolarian chert in Japan. Average low-mid-latitude BSi burial flux in the superocean Panthalassa is ~90% of that of the modern global ocean and relative amplitude varied by ~20-50% over the 100 kyr to 30 Myr orbital cycles during the early Mesozoic. We hypothesize that BSi in chert was a major sink for oceanic dissolved silica (DSi), with fluctuations proportional to DSi input from chemical weathering on timescales longer than the residence time of DSi (<~100 Kyr). Chemical weathering rates estimated by the GEOCARBSULFvolc model support these hypotheses, excluding the volcanism-driven oceanic anoxic events of the Early-Middle Triassic and Toarcian that exceed model limits. We propose that the Mega monsoon of the supercontinent Pangea nonlinearly amplified the orbitally paced chemical weathering that drove BSi burial during the early Mesozoic greenhouse world.

Temperature acclimation of photosynthesis and respiration: A key uncertainty in the carbon cycle-climate feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombardozzi, Danica L.; Bonan, Gordon B.; Smith, Nicholas G.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Fisher, Rosie A.

2015-10-01

Earth System Models typically use static responses to temperature to calculate photosynthesis and respiration, but experimental evidence suggests that many plants acclimate to prevailing temperatures. We incorporated representations of photosynthetic and leaf respiratory temperature acclimation into the Community Land Model, the terrestrial component of the Community Earth System Model. These processes increased terrestrial carbon pools by 20 Pg C (22%) at the end of the 21st century under a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) climate scenario. Including the less certain estimates of stem and root respiration acclimation increased terrestrial carbon pools by an additional 17 Pg C (~40% overall increase). High latitudes gained the most carbon with acclimation, and tropical carbon pools increased least. However, results from both of these regions remain uncertain; few relevant data exist for tropical and boreal plants or for extreme temperatures. Constraining these uncertainties will produce more realistic estimates of land carbon feedbacks throughout the 21st century.

Exploring the {sup 22}Ne(p,γ){sup 23}Na reaction at LUNA and at HZDR

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cavanna, Francesca; Collaboration: LUNA Collaboration

2014-05-09

The {sup 22}Ne(p,γ){sup 23}Na reaction is involved in the hydrogen burning NeNa cycle. This determines the nucleosynthesis of the Ne and Na isotopes in the Red Giant Branch and Asymptotic Giant Branch phases of stellar evolution. In the energy range relevant for astrophysics (20 keV < E < 600 keV), the {sup 22}Ne(p,γ){sup 23}Na reaction rate is highly uncertain because of the contribution of a large number of resonances never measured directly. A related study is under preparation at the Laboratory for Underground Nuclear Astrophysics (LUNA), in the Gran Sasso National Laboratory, and it will cover the energy range 100more » keV < E < 400 keV. Meanwhile, a measurement at higher energies (i.e. 436 keV) has been carried out at the Tandetron accelerator of the HZDR (Helmholtz Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf) in Germany. Some preliminary results will be presented.« less

Platelet composite coatings for tin whisker mitigation

DOE PAGES

Rohwer, Lauren E. S.; Martin, James E.

2015-09-14

In this study, reliable methods for tin whisker mitigation are needed for applications that utilize tin-plated commercial components. Tin can grow whiskers that can lead to electrical shorting, possibly causing critical systems to fail catastrophically. The mechanisms of tin whisker growth are unclear and this makes prediction of the lifetimes of critical components uncertain. The development of robust methods for tin whisker mitigation is currently the best approach to eliminating the risk of shorting. Current mitigation methods are based on unfilled polymer coatings that are not impenetrable to tin whiskers. In this paper we report tin whisker mitigation results formore » several filled polymer coatings. The whisker-penetration resistance of the coatings was evaluated at elevated temperature and high humidity and under temperature cycling conditions. The composite coatings comprised Ni and MgF 2-coated Al/Ni/Al platelets in epoxy resin or silicone rubber. In addition to improved whisker mitigation, these platelet composites have enhanced thermal conductivity and dielectric constant compared with unfilled polymers.« less

The coordinating contracts of supply chain in a fuzzy decision environment.

PubMed

Sang, Shengju

2016-01-01

The rapid change of the product life cycle is making the parameters of the supply chain models more and more uncertain. Therefore, we consider the coordination mechanisms between one manufacturer and one retailer in a fuzzy decision marking environment, where the parameters of the models can be forecasted and expressed as the triangular fuzzy variables. The centralized decision-making system, two types of supply chain contracts, namely, the revenue sharing contract and the return contract are proposed. To obtain their optimal policies, the fuzzy set theory is adopted to solve these fuzzy models. Finally, three numerical examples are provided to analyze the impacts of the fuzziness of the market demand, retail price and salvage value of the product on the optimal solutions in two contracts. It shows that in order to obtain more fuzzy expected profits the retailer and the manufacturer should seek as low fuzziness of demand, high fuzziness of the retail price and the salvage value as possible in both contracts.

Ecosystem functioning is enveloped by hydrometeorological variability.

PubMed

Pappas, Christoforos; Mahecha, Miguel D; Frank, David C; Babst, Flurin; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

2017-09-01

Terrestrial ecosystem processes, and the associated vegetation carbon dynamics, respond differently to hydrometeorological variability across timescales, and so does our scientific understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Long-term variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle is not yet well constrained and the resulting climate-biosphere feedbacks are highly uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive overview of hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability from hourly to decadal timescales integrating multiple in situ and remote-sensing datasets characterizing extra-tropical forest sites. We find that ecosystem variability at all sites is confined within a hydrometeorological envelope across sites and timescales. Furthermore, ecosystem variability demonstrates long-term persistence, highlighting ecological memory and slow ecosystem recovery rates after disturbances. However, simulation results with state-of-the-art process-based models do not reflect this long-term persistent behaviour in ecosystem functioning. Accordingly, we develop a cross-time-scale stochastic framework that captures hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability. Our analysis offers a perspective for terrestrial ecosystem modelling and paves the way for new model-data integration opportunities in Earth system sciences.

Integrative sensing and prediction of urban water for sustainable cities (iSPUW)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, D. J.; Fang, N. Z.; Yu, X.; Zink, M.; Gao, J.; Kerkez, B.

2014-12-01

We describe a newly launched project in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex (DFW) area to develop a cyber-physical prototype system that integrates advanced sensing, modeling and prediction of urban water, to support its early adoption by a spectrum of users and stakeholders, and to educate a new generation of future sustainability scientists and engineers. The project utilizes the very high-resolution precipitation and other sensing capabilities uniquely available in DFW as well as crowdsourcing and cloud computing to advance understanding of the urban water cycle and to improve urban sustainability from transient shocks of heavy-to-extreme precipitation under climate change and urbanization. All available water information from observations and models will be fused objectively via advanced data assimilation to produce the best estimate of the state of the uncertain system. Modeling, prediction and decision support tools will be developed in the ensemble framework to increase the information content of the analysis and prediction and to support risk-based decision making.

Increased light-use efficiency in northern terrestrial ecosystems indicated by CO 2 and greening observations

DOE PAGES

Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying

2016-11-04

Observations show an increasing amplitude in the seasonal cycle of CO 2 (ASC) north of 45°N of 56 ± 9.8% over the last 50 years and an increase in vegetation greenness of 7.5 - 15% in high northern latitudes since the 1980s. However, the causes of these changes remain uncertain. Historical simulations from terrestrial biosphere models in the Multiscale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project are compared to the ASC and greenness observations, using the TM3 atmospheric transport model to translate surface fluxes into CO 2 concentrations. We find that the modeled change in ASC is too small but themore » mean greening trend is generally captured. Modeled increases in greenness are primarily driven by warming, whereas ASC changes are primarily driven by increasing CO 2. We suggest that increases in ecosystem-scale light use efficiency (LUE) have contributed to the observed ASC increase but are underestimated by current models. We highlight potential mechanisms that could increase modeled LUE.« less

Platelet Composite Coatings for Tin Whisker Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohwer, Lauren E. S.; Martin, James E.

2015-11-01

Reliable methods for tin whisker mitigation are needed for applications that utilize tin-plated commercial components. Tin can grow whiskers that can lead to electrical shorting, possibly causing critical systems to fail catastrophically. The mechanisms of tin whisker growth are unclear and this makes prediction of the lifetimes of critical components uncertain. The development of robust methods for tin whisker mitigation is currently the best approach to eliminating the risk of shorting. Current mitigation methods are based on unfilled polymer coatings that are not impenetrable to tin whiskers. In this paper we report tin whisker mitigation results for several filled polymer coatings. The whisker-penetration resistance of the coatings was evaluated at elevated temperature and high humidity and under temperature cycling conditions. The composite coatings comprised Ni and MgF2-coated Al/Ni/Al platelets in epoxy resin or silicone rubber. In addition to improved whisker mitigation, these platelet composites have enhanced thermal conductivity and dielectric constant compared with unfilled polymers.

Similitude relations for buffet and wing rock on delta wings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mabey, D. G.

1997-08-01

Vortex flow phenomena at high angles of incidence are of great interest to the designers of advanced combat aircraft. The steady phenomena (such as steady lift and pitching moments) are understood fairly well, whereas the unsteady phenomena are still uncertain. This paper addresses two important unsteady phenomena on delta wings. With regard to the frequency parameter of the quasi-periodic excitation caused by vortex bursting, a new correlation is established covering a range of sweep back from 60 to 75°. With regard to the much lower frequency parameter of limit-cycle rigid-body wing-rock, a new experiment shows conclusively that although the motion is non-linear, the frequency parameter can be predicted by quasi-steady theory. As a consequence, for a given sweep angle, the frequency parameter is inversely proportional to the square root of the inertia in roll. This is an important observation when attempting to extrapolate from model tests in wind tunnels to predict the wing-rock characteristics of aircraft.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rohwer, Lauren E. S.; Martin, James E.

In this study, reliable methods for tin whisker mitigation are needed for applications that utilize tin-plated commercial components. Tin can grow whiskers that can lead to electrical shorting, possibly causing critical systems to fail catastrophically. The mechanisms of tin whisker growth are unclear and this makes prediction of the lifetimes of critical components uncertain. The development of robust methods for tin whisker mitigation is currently the best approach to eliminating the risk of shorting. Current mitigation methods are based on unfilled polymer coatings that are not impenetrable to tin whiskers. In this paper we report tin whisker mitigation results formore » several filled polymer coatings. The whisker-penetration resistance of the coatings was evaluated at elevated temperature and high humidity and under temperature cycling conditions. The composite coatings comprised Ni and MgF 2-coated Al/Ni/Al platelets in epoxy resin or silicone rubber. In addition to improved whisker mitigation, these platelet composites have enhanced thermal conductivity and dielectric constant compared with unfilled polymers.« less

Approaches to Observe Anthropogenic Aerosol-Cloud Interactions.

PubMed

Quaas, Johannes

Anthropogenic aerosol particles exert an-quantitatively very uncertain-effective radiative forcing due to aerosol-cloud interactions via an immediate altering of cloud albedo on the one hand and via rapid adjustments by alteration of cloud processes and by changes in thermodynamic profiles on the other hand. Large variability in cloud cover and properties and the therefore low signal-to-noise ratio for aerosol-induced perturbations hamper the identification of effects in observations. Six approaches are discussed as a means to isolate the impact of anthropogenic aerosol on clouds from natural cloud variability to estimate or constrain the effective forcing. These are (i) intentional cloud modification, (ii) ship tracks, (iii) differences between the hemispheres, (iv) trace gases, (v) weekly cycles and (vi) trends. Ship track analysis is recommendable for detailed process understanding, and the analysis of weekly cycles and long-term trends is most promising to derive estimates or constraints on the effective radiative forcing.

A brief history of phosphorus: from the philosopher's stone to nutrient recovery and reuse.

PubMed

Ashley, K; Cordell, D; Mavinic, D

2011-08-01

The element phosphorus has no substitute in sustaining all life and food production on our planet. Yet today's phosphorus use patterns have resulted in both a global environmental epidemic of eutrophication and led to a situation where the future availability of the world's main sources of phosphorus is uncertain. This paper examines the important history of human interference with the phosphorus cycle from initial discovery to present, highlighting key interrelated events and consequences of the Industrial Revolution, Sanitation Revolution and Green Revolution. Whilst these events led to profound advances in technology, public health and food production, they have fundamentally broken the global phosphorus cycle. It is clear a 'Fourth Revolution' is required to resolve this dilemma and ensure humanity can continue to feed itself into the future while protecting environmental and human health. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The history of Antarctic Peninsula glaciation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barker, Peter F.

2007-01-01

As Co-Chief Scientist on DSDP Leg 35 in 1974, Cam Craddock (1930-2006) produced the first useful information on Cenozoic Antarctic Peninsula glaciation - an early middle Miocene (15-17 Ma) apparent glacial onset. Subsequent work, onshore and offshore, has greatly extended our knowledge but that early conclusion stands today. Cenozoic Antarctic Peninsula palaeoclimate as presently known is broadly consistent with global palaeoclimate proxies. Initial glacial onset was within the Eocene-Oligocene boundary interval (although earlier, short-lived glaciations have been proposed, from indirect measurements) and the peninsula probably became deglaciated in the earliest Miocene (ca. 24 Ma). The renewed middle Miocene glaciation probably continued to the present and, for the last 9 Myr at least, has persisted through glacial (orbital) cycles, with grounded ice advance to the shelf edge during maxima. Although orbital cyclicity affected earlier AP palaeoclimate also, the level of glaciation through a complete cycle is uncertain.

Vaccines: A review of immune-based interventions to prevent and treat disease.

PubMed

Alemayehu, Demissie; Utt, Eric; Knirsch, Charles

2015-03-01

The enormous gains made in public health during the 20th century, through the prevention and treatment of infectious disease, have contributed to dramatic improvements in the quality and length of the human lifespan. Continued advances in medicine are dependent on addressing several challenges including the increase in existing and new resistance to antibiotics, the decrease in productivity of the research and development (R&D) ecosystem, uncertain regulatory pathways, and an economic environment that rewards innovation for developing therapeutics that involve long cycle times from idea to a product. In this article, we consider important issues pertaining to the development of vaccines with particular emphasis on preclinical requirements, optimal dose selection, design, execution, and reporting of clinical trials for regulatory submission, planning and implementation of post-approval life-cycle programs, and emerging themes in therapeutic vaccines. © 2015, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

Variants of uncertain significance in newborn screening disorders: implications for large-scale genomic sequencing.

PubMed

Narravula, Alekhya; Garber, Kathryn B; Askree, S Hussain; Hegde, Madhuri; Hall, Patricia L

2017-01-01

As exome and genome sequencing using high-throughput sequencing technologies move rapidly into the diagnostic process, laboratories and clinicians need to develop a strategy for dealing with uncertain findings. A commitment must be made to minimize these findings, and all parties may need to make adjustments to their processes. The information required to reclassify these variants is often available but not communicated to all relevant parties. To illustrate these issues, we focused on three well-characterized monogenic, metabolic disorders included in newborn screens: classic galactosemia, caused by GALT variants; phenylketonuria, caused by PAH variants; and medium-chain acyl-CoA dehydrogenase (MCAD) deficiency, caused by ACADM variants. In 10 years of clinical molecular testing, we have observed 134 unique GALT variants, 46 of which were variants of uncertain significance (VUS). In PAH, we observed 132 variants, including 17 VUS, and for ACADM, we observed 64 unique variants, of which 33 were uncertain. After this review, 17 VUS (37%; 7 in ACADM, 9 in GALT, and 1 in PAH) were reclassified from uncertain (6 to benign or likely benign and 11 to pathogenic or likely pathogenic). We identified common types of missing information that would have helped make a definitive classification and categorized this information by ease and cost to obtain.Genet Med 19 1, 77-82.

Entrainment and high-density three-dimensional mapping in right atrial macroreentry provide critical complementary information: Entrainment may unmask "visual reentry" as passive.

PubMed

Pathik, Bhupesh; Lee, Geoffrey; Nalliah, Chrishan; Joseph, Stephen; Morton, Joseph B; Sparks, Paul B; Sanders, Prashanthan; Kistler, Peter M; Kalman, Jonathan M

2017-10-01

With the recent advent of high-density (HD) 3-dimensional (3D) mapping, the utility of entrainment is uncertain. However, the limitations of visual representation and interpretation of these high-resolution 3D maps are unclear. The purpose of this study was to determine the strengths and limitations of both HD 3D mapping and entrainment mapping during mapping of right atrial macroreentry. Fifteen patients were studied. The number and type of circuits accounting for ≥90% of the tachycardia cycle length using HD 3D mapping were verified using systematic entrainment mapping. Entrainment sites with an unexpectedly long postpacing interval despite proximity to the active circuit were evaluated. Based on HD 3D mapping, 27 circuits were observed: 12 peritricuspid, 2 upper loop reentry, 10 lower loop reentry, and 3 lateral wall circuits. With entrainment, 17 of the 27 circuits were active: all 12 peritricuspid and 2 upper loop reentry. However, lower loop reentry was confirmed in only 3 of 10, and none of the 3 lateral wall circuits were present. Mean percentage of tachycardia cycle length covered by active circuits was 98% ± 1% vs 97% ± 2% for passive circuits (P = .09). None of the 345 entrainment runs terminated tachycardia or changed tachycardia mechanism. In 8 of 15 patients, 13 examples of unexpectedly long postpacing interval were observed at entrainment sites located distal to localized zones of slow conduction seen on HD 3D mapping. Using HD 3D mapping, "visual reentry" may be due to passive circuitous propagation rather than a critical reentrant circuit. HD 3D mapping provides new insights into regional conduction and helps explain unusual entrainment phenomena. Copyright © 2017 Heart Rhythm Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Carbon cycle uncertainty in the Alaskan Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, J. B.; Sikka, M.; Oechel, W. C.; Huntzinger, D. N.; Melton, J. R.; Koven, C. D.; Ahlström, A.; Arain, A. M.; Baker, I.; Chen, J. M.; Ciais, P.; Davidson, C.; Dietze, M.; El-Masri, B.; Hayes, D.; Huntingford, C.; Jain, A.; Levy, P. E.; Lomas, M. R.; Poulter, B.; Price, D.; Sahoo, A. K.; Schaefer, K.; Tian, H.; Tomelleri, E.; Verbeeck, H.; Viovy, N.; Wania, R.; Zeng, N.; Miller, C. E.

2014-02-01

Climate change is leading to a disproportionately large warming in the high northern latitudes, but the magnitude and sign of the future carbon balance of the Arctic are highly uncertain. Using 40 terrestrial biosphere models for Alaska, we provide a baseline of terrestrial carbon cycle structural and parametric uncertainty, defined as the multi-model standard deviation (σ) against the mean (x\\bar) for each quantity. Mean annual uncertainty (σ/x\\bar) was largest for net ecosystem exchange (NEE) (-0.01± 0.19 kg C m-2 yr-1), then net primary production (NPP) (0.14 ± 0.33 kg C m-2 yr-1), autotrophic respiration (Ra) (0.09 ± 0.20 kg C m-2 yr-1), gross primary production (GPP) (0.22 ± 0.50 kg C m-2 yr-1), ecosystem respiration (Re) (0.23 ± 0.38 kg C m-2 yr-1), CH4 flux (2.52 ± 4.02 g CH4 m-2 yr-1), heterotrophic respiration (Rh) (0.14 ± 0.20 kg C m-2 yr-1), and soil carbon (14.0± 9.2 kg C m-2). The spatial patterns in regional carbon stocks and fluxes varied widely with some models showing NEE for Alaska as a strong carbon sink, others as a strong carbon source, while still others as carbon neutral. Additionally, a feedback (i.e., sensitivity) analysis was conducted of 20th century NEE to CO2 fertilization (β) and climate (γ), which showed that uncertainty in γ was 2x larger than that of β, with neither indicating that the Alaskan Arctic is shifting towards a certain net carbon sink or source. Finally, AmeriFlux data are used at two sites in the Alaskan Arctic to evaluate the regional patterns; observed seasonal NEE was captured within multi-model uncertainty. This assessment of carbon cycle uncertainties may be used as a baseline for the improvement of experimental and modeling activities, as well as a reference for future trajectories in carbon cycling with climate change in the Alaskan Arctic.

LIFE CYCLE, DISTRIBUTION AND ABUNDANCE OF CARCINONEMERTES EPIALTI, A NEMERTEAN EGG PREDATOR OF THE SHORE CRAB, HEMIGRAPSUS OREGONENSIS, IN RELATION TO HOST SIZE, REPRODUCTION AND MOLT CYCLE.

PubMed

Kuris, Armand M

1978-02-01

1. The geographic range of Carcinonemertes epialti has been greatly extended. The worms are found from Bahia San Quintin, Baja California, Mexico, to Page's Lagoon, Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. 2. New host records for C. epialti include H. oregonensis, and H. nudus. It is rare on its type host Pugettia producta. Specimens of Carcinonemertes of uncertain affinities are also found on Cancer antennarius, C. anthonyi and C. productus. 3. Carcinonemertes epialti adults are egg predators on ovigerous hosts. Growth, demography and abundance are described in relation to the embryogenic stage of the host brood at Bodega Harbor, California. 4. Nonfeeding juveniles are ensheathed on individuals of both host sexes over 8.0 mm carapace width. 5. Transmission experiments show that contact transfer of juvenile nemerteans from males to other hosts may occur. 6. The percentage of infestation and mean density peak in autumn on H. oregonensis at Bodega Harbor. 7. Ovigerous female hosts are more frequently infested with C. epialti, particularly at small host sizes, than are male or nonovigerous female hosts at Bodega Harbor. However, average worm density on ovigerous females is low. 8. Mean density of C. epialti rises through late postmolt, declines during intermolt and rebuilds to a high level in late premolt H. oregonensisfrom Bodega Harbor. 9. Large crabs have a higher percentage of infestations and mean densities per infection than do small crabs. Nemerteans are more frequently found in the sternal-abdominal furrow and less frequently in the limb axillae on large crabs. 10. A model of C. epialti transmission and site occupancy is proposed, incorporating the influence of host size, sex, reproductive state, embryogenesis, molt cycle stage and molt cycle duration of H. oregonensis at Bodega Harbor. Site availability increases with host size. At higher densities the juvenile nemerteans increasingly occupy less preferred sites. Transferral of juvenile nemerteans occurs and is considered responsible for the high frequency of low infestation levels. Ovigerous females are more likely to be infested but with low density infestations.

Preliminary survey of propulsion using chemical energy stored in the upper atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baldwin, Lionel V; Blackshear, Perry L

1958-01-01

Ram-jet cycles that use the chemical energy of dissociated oxygen for propulsion in the ionosphere are presented. After a review of the properties and compositions of the upper atmosphere, the external drag, recombination kinetics, and aerodynamic-heating problems of an orbiting ram jet are analyzed. The study indicates that the recombination ram jet might be useful for sustaining a satellite at an altitude of about 60 miles. Atmospheric composition and recombination-rate coefficients were too uncertain for more definite conclusions. The ram jet is a marginal device even in the optimistic view.

Experiences with Probabilistic Analysis Applied to Controlled Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

2004-01-01

This paper presents a semi-analytic method for computing frequency dependent means, variances, and failure probabilities for arbitrarily large-order closed-loop dynamical systems possessing a single uncertain parameter or with multiple highly correlated uncertain parameters. The approach will be shown to not suffer from the same computational challenges associated with computing failure probabilities using conventional FORM/SORM techniques. The approach is demonstrated by computing the probabilistic frequency domain performance of an optimal feed-forward disturbance rejection scheme.

Appropriate test selection for single-photon emission computed tomography imaging: association with clinical risk, posttest management, and outcomes.

PubMed

Aldweib, Nael; Negishi, Kazuaki; Seicean, Sinziana; Jaber, Wael A; Hachamovitch, Rory; Cerqueira, Manuel; Marwick, Thomas H

2013-09-01

Appropriate use criteria (AUC) for stress single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) are only one step in appropriate use of imaging. Other steps include pretest clinical risk evaluation and optimal management responses. We sought to understand the link between AUC, risk evaluation, management, and outcome. We used AUC to classify 1,199 consecutive patients (63.8 ± 12.5 years, 56% male) undergoing SPECT as inappropriate, uncertain, and appropriate. Framingham score for asymptomatic patients and Bethesda angina score for symptomatic patients were used to classify patients into high (≥5%/y), intermediate, and low (≤1%/y) risk. Subsequent patient management was defined as appropriate or inappropriate based on the concordance between management decisions and the SPECT result. Patients were followed up for a median of 4.8 years, and cause of death was obtained from the social security death registry. Overall, 62% of SPECTs were appropriate, 18% inappropriate, and 20% uncertain (only 5 were unclassified). Of 324 low-risk studies, 108 (33%) were inappropriate, compared with 94 (15%) of 621 intermediate-risk and 1 (1%) of 160 high-risk studies (P < .001). There were 79 events, with outcomes of inappropriate patients better than uncertain and appropriate patients. Management was appropriate in 986 (89%), and appropriateness of patient management was unrelated to AUC (P = .65). Pretest clinical risk evaluation may be helpful in appropriateness assessment because very few high-risk patients are inappropriate, but almost half of low-risk patients are inappropriate or uncertain. Appropriate patient management is independent of appropriateness of testing. © 2013.

The Cloud Top Distribution and Diurnal Variation of Clouds Over East Asia: Preliminary Results From Advanced Himawari Imager

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Dandan; Guo, Jianping; Wang, Hongqing; Li, Jian; Min, Min; Zhao, Wenhui; Yao, Dan

2018-04-01

Clouds, as one of the most uncertain factors in climate system, have been intensively studied as satellites with advanced instruments emerged in recent years. However, few studies examine the vertical distributions of cloud top and their temporal variations over East Asia based on geostationary satellite data. In this study, the vertical structures of cloud top and its diurnal variations in summer of 2016 are analyzed using the Advanced Himawari Imager/Himawari-8 cloud products. Results show that clouds occur most frequently over the southern Tibetan Plateau and the Bay of Bengal. We find a steep gradient of cloud occurrence frequency extending from southwest to northeast China and low-value centers over the eastern Pacific and the Inner Mongolia Plateau. The vertical structures of cloud top are highly dependent on latitude, in addition to the nonnegligible roles of both terrain and land-sea thermal contrast. In terms of the diurnal cycle, clouds tend to occur more often in the afternoon, peaking around 1700 local time over land and ocean. The amplitude of cloud diurnal variation over ocean is much smaller than that over land, and complex terrain tends to be linked to larger amplitude. In vertical, the diurnal cycle of cloud frequency exhibits bimodal pattern over both land and ocean. The high-level peaks occur at almost the same altitude over land and ocean. In contrast, the low-level peaks over ocean mainly reside in the boundary layer, much lower than those over land, which could be indicative of the frequent occurrence of marine boundary layer clouds.

A Global Data Analysis for Representing Sediment and Particulate Organic Carbon Yield in Earth System Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tan, Zeli; Leung, L. Ruby; Li, Hongyi

Although sediment yield (SY) from water erosion is ubiquitous and its environmental consequences are well recognized, its impacts on the global carbon cycle remain largely uncertain. This knowledge gap is partly due to the lack of soil erosion modeling in Earth System Models (ESMs), which are important tools used to understand the global carbon cycle and explore its changes. This study analyzed sediment and particulate organic carbon yield (CY) data from 1081 and 38 small catchments (0.1-200 km27 ), respectively, in different environments across the globe. Using multiple statistical analysis techniques, we explored environmental factors and hydrological processes important formore » SY and CY modeling in ESMs. Our results show clear correlations of high SY with traditional agriculture, seismicity and heavy storms, as well as strong correlations between SY and annual peak runoff. These highlight the potential limitation of SY models that represent only interrill and rill erosion because shallow overland flow and rill flow have limited transport capacity due to their hydraulic geometry to produce high SY. Further, our results suggest that SY modeling in ESMs should be implemented at the event scale to produce the catastrophic mass transport during episodic events. Several environmental factors such as seismicity and land management that are often not considered in current catchment-scale SY models can be important in controlling global SY. Our analyses show that SY is likely the primary control on CY in small catchments and a statistically significant empirical relationship is established to calculate SY and CY jointly in ESMs.« less

Risk of natural disturbances makes future contribution of Canada's forests to the global carbon cycle highly uncertain.

PubMed

Kurz, Werner A; Stinson, Graham; Rampley, Gregory J; Dymond, Caren C; Neilson, Eric T

2008-02-05

A large carbon sink in northern land surfaces inferred from global carbon cycle inversion models led to concerns during Kyoto Protocol negotiations that countries might be able to avoid efforts to reduce fossil fuel emissions by claiming large sinks in their managed forests. The greenhouse gas balance of Canada's managed forest is strongly affected by naturally occurring fire with high interannual variability in the area burned and by cyclical insect outbreaks. Taking these stochastic future disturbances into account, we used the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) to project that the managed forests of Canada could be a source of between 30 and 245 Mt CO(2)e yr(-1) during the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period (2008-2012). The recent transition from sink to source is the result of large insect outbreaks. The wide range in the predicted greenhouse gas balance (215 Mt CO(2)e yr(-1)) is equivalent to nearly 30% of Canada's emissions in 2005. The increasing impact of natural disturbances, the two major insect outbreaks, and the Kyoto Protocol accounting rules all contributed to Canada's decision not to elect forest management. In Canada, future efforts to influence the carbon balance through forest management could be overwhelmed by natural disturbances. Similar circumstances may arise elsewhere if global change increases natural disturbance rates. Future climate mitigation agreements that do not account for and protect against the impacts of natural disturbances, for example, by accounting for forest management benefits relative to baselines, will fail to encourage changes in forest management aimed at mitigating climate change.

Non-Redfieldian Dynamics Explain Seasonal pCO2 Drawdown in the Gulf of Bothnia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fransner, Filippa; Gustafsson, Erik; Tedesco, Letizia; Vichi, Marcello; Hordoir, Robinson; Roquet, Fabien; Spilling, Kristian; Kuznetsov, Ivan; Eilola, Kari; Mörth, Carl-Magnus; Humborg, Christoph; Nycander, Jonas

2018-01-01

High inputs of nutrients and organic matter make coastal seas places of intense air-sea CO2 exchange. Due to their complexity, the role of coastal seas in the global air-sea CO2 exchange is, however, still uncertain. Here, we investigate the role of phytoplankton stoichiometric flexibility and extracellular DOC production for the seasonal nutrient and CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) dynamics in the Gulf of Bothnia, Northern Baltic Sea. A 3-D ocean biogeochemical-physical model with variable phytoplankton stoichiometry is for the first time implemented in the area and validated against observations. By simulating non-Redfieldian internal phytoplankton stoichiometry, and a relatively large production of extracellular dissolved organic carbon (DOC), the model adequately reproduces observed seasonal cycles in macronutrients and pCO2. The uptake of atmospheric CO2 is underestimated by 50% if instead using the Redfield ratio to determine the carbon assimilation, as in other Baltic Sea models currently in use. The model further suggests, based on the observed drawdown of pCO2, that observational estimates of organic carbon production in the Gulf of Bothnia, derived with the 14C method, may be heavily underestimated. We conclude that stoichiometric variability and uncoupling of carbon and nutrient assimilation have to be considered in order to better understand the carbon cycle in coastal seas.

Effects of ethanol on vehicle energy efficiency and implications on ethanol life-cycle greenhouse gas analysis.

PubMed

Yan, Xiaoyu; Inderwildi, Oliver R; King, David A; Boies, Adam M

2013-06-04

Bioethanol is the world's largest-produced alternative to petroleum-derived transportation fuels due to its compatibility within existing spark-ignition engines and its relatively mature production technology. Despite its success, questions remain over the greenhouse gas (GHG) implications of fuel ethanol use with many studies showing significant impacts of differences in land use, feedstock, and refinery operation. While most efforts to quantify life-cycle GHG impacts have focused on the production stage, a few recent studies have acknowledged the effect of ethanol on engine performance and incorporated these effects into the fuel life cycle. These studies have broadly asserted that vehicle efficiency increases with ethanol use to justify reducing the GHG impact of ethanol. These results seem to conflict with the general notion that ethanol decreases the fuel efficiency (or increases the fuel consumption) of vehicles due to the lower volumetric energy content of ethanol when compared to gasoline. Here we argue that due to the increased emphasis on alternative fuels with drastically differing energy densities, vehicle efficiency should be evaluated based on energy rather than volume. When done so, we show that efficiency of existing vehicles can be affected by ethanol content, but these impacts can serve to have both positive and negative effects and are highly uncertain (ranging from -15% to +24%). As a result, uncertainties in the net GHG effect of ethanol, particularly when used in a low-level blend with gasoline, are considerably larger than previously estimated (standard deviations increase by >10% and >200% when used in high and low blends, respectively). Technical options exist to improve vehicle efficiency through smarter use of ethanol though changes to the vehicle fleets and fuel infrastructure would be required. Future biofuel policies should promote synergies between the vehicle and fuel industries in order to maximize the society-wise benefits or minimize the risks of adverse impacts of ethanol.

A simple conceptual model to interpret the 100 000 years dynamics of paleo-climate records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiroga Lombard, C. S.; Balenzuela, P.; Braun, H.; Chialvo, D. R.

2010-10-01

Spectral analyses performed on records of cosmogenic nuclides reveal a group of dominant spectral components during the Holocene period. Only a few of them are related to known solar cycles, i.e., the De Vries/Suess, Gleissberg and Hallstatt cycles. The origin of the others remains uncertain. On the other hand, time series of North Atlantic atmospheric/sea surface temperatures during the last ice age display the existence of repeated large-scale warming events, called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, spaced around multiples of 1470 years. The De Vries/Suess and Gleissberg cycles with periods close to 1470/7 (~210) and 1470/17 (~86.5) years have been proposed to explain these observations. In this work we found that a conceptual bistable model forced with the De Vries/Suess and Gleissberg cycles plus noise displays a group of dominant frequencies similar to those obtained in the Fourier spectra from paleo-climate during the Holocene. Moreover, we show that simply changing the noise amplitude in the model we obtain similar power spectra to those corresponding to GISP2 δ18O (Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2) during the last ice age. These results give a general dynamical framework which allows us to interpret the main characteristic of paleoclimate records from the last 100 000 years.

Co-optimization of CO 2 -EOR and Storage Processes under Geological Uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ampomah, William; Balch, Robert; Will, Robert

This paper presents an integrated numerical framework to co-optimize EOR and CO 2 storage performance in the Farnsworth field unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas. The framework includes a field-scale compositional reservoir flow model, an uncertainty quantification model and a neural network optimization process. The reservoir flow model has been constructed based on the field geophysical, geological, and engineering data. A laboratory fluid analysis was tuned to an equation of state and subsequently used to predict the thermodynamic minimum miscible pressure (MMP). A history match of primary and secondary recovery processes was conducted to estimate the reservoir and multiphase flow parametersmore » as the baseline case for analyzing the effect of recycling produced gas, infill drilling and water alternating gas (WAG) cycles on oil recovery and CO 2 storage. A multi-objective optimization model was defined for maximizing both oil recovery and CO 2 storage. The uncertainty quantification model comprising the Latin Hypercube sampling, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis, was used to study the effects of uncertain variables on the defined objective functions. Uncertain variables such as bottom hole injection pressure, WAG cycle, injection and production group rates, and gas-oil ratio among others were selected. The most significant variables were selected as control variables to be used for the optimization process. A neural network optimization algorithm was utilized to optimize the objective function both with and without geological uncertainty. The vertical permeability anisotropy (Kv/Kh) was selected as one of the uncertain parameters in the optimization process. The simulation results were compared to a scenario baseline case that predicted CO 2 storage of 74%. The results showed an improved approach for optimizing oil recovery and CO 2 storage in the FWU. The optimization process predicted more than 94% of CO 2 storage and most importantly about 28% of incremental oil recovery. The sensitivity analysis reduced the number of control variables to decrease computational time. A risk aversion factor was used to represent results at various confidence levels to assist management in the decision-making process. The defined objective functions were proved to be a robust approach to co-optimize oil recovery and CO 2 storage. The Farnsworth CO 2 project will serve as a benchmark for future CO 2–EOR or CCUS projects in the Anadarko basin or geologically similar basins throughout the world.« less

Co-optimization of CO 2 -EOR and Storage Processes under Geological Uncertainty

DOE PAGES

Ampomah, William; Balch, Robert; Will, Robert; ...

2017-07-01

This paper presents an integrated numerical framework to co-optimize EOR and CO 2 storage performance in the Farnsworth field unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas. The framework includes a field-scale compositional reservoir flow model, an uncertainty quantification model and a neural network optimization process. The reservoir flow model has been constructed based on the field geophysical, geological, and engineering data. A laboratory fluid analysis was tuned to an equation of state and subsequently used to predict the thermodynamic minimum miscible pressure (MMP). A history match of primary and secondary recovery processes was conducted to estimate the reservoir and multiphase flow parametersmore » as the baseline case for analyzing the effect of recycling produced gas, infill drilling and water alternating gas (WAG) cycles on oil recovery and CO 2 storage. A multi-objective optimization model was defined for maximizing both oil recovery and CO 2 storage. The uncertainty quantification model comprising the Latin Hypercube sampling, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis, was used to study the effects of uncertain variables on the defined objective functions. Uncertain variables such as bottom hole injection pressure, WAG cycle, injection and production group rates, and gas-oil ratio among others were selected. The most significant variables were selected as control variables to be used for the optimization process. A neural network optimization algorithm was utilized to optimize the objective function both with and without geological uncertainty. The vertical permeability anisotropy (Kv/Kh) was selected as one of the uncertain parameters in the optimization process. The simulation results were compared to a scenario baseline case that predicted CO 2 storage of 74%. The results showed an improved approach for optimizing oil recovery and CO 2 storage in the FWU. The optimization process predicted more than 94% of CO 2 storage and most importantly about 28% of incremental oil recovery. The sensitivity analysis reduced the number of control variables to decrease computational time. A risk aversion factor was used to represent results at various confidence levels to assist management in the decision-making process. The defined objective functions were proved to be a robust approach to co-optimize oil recovery and CO 2 storage. The Farnsworth CO 2 project will serve as a benchmark for future CO 2–EOR or CCUS projects in the Anadarko basin or geologically similar basins throughout the world.« less

Lyapunov-based control of limit cycle oscillations in uncertain aircraft systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bialy, Brendan

Store-induced limit cycle oscillations (LCO) affect several fighter aircraft and is expected to remain an issue for next generation fighters. LCO arises from the interaction of aerodynamic and structural forces, however the primary contributor to the phenomenon is still unclear. The practical concerns regarding this phenomenon include whether or not ordnance can be safely released and the ability of the aircrew to perform mission-related tasks while in an LCO condition. The focus of this dissertation is the development of control strategies to suppress LCO in aircraft systems. The first contribution of this work (Chapter 2) is the development of a controller consisting of a continuous Robust Integral of the Sign of the Error (RISE) feedback term with a neural network (NN) feedforward term to suppress LCO behavior in an uncertain airfoil system. The second contribution of this work (Chapter 3) is the extension of the development in Chapter 2 to include actuator saturation. Suppression of LCO behavior is achieved through the implementation of an auxiliary error system that features hyperbolic functions and a saturated RISE feedback control structure. Due to the lack of clarity regarding the driving mechanism behind LCO, common practice in literature and in Chapters 2 and 3 is to replicate the symptoms of LCO by including nonlinearities in the wing structure, typically a nonlinear torsional stiffness. To improve the accuracy of the system model a partial differential equation (PDE) model of a flexible wing is derived (see Appendix F) using Hamilton's principle. Chapters 4 and 5 are focused on developing boundary control strategies for regulating the bending and twisting deformations of the derived model. The contribution of Chapter 4 is the construction of a backstepping-based boundary control strategy for a linear PDE model of an aircraft wing. The backstepping-based strategy transforms the original system to a exponentially stable system. A Lyapunov-based stability analysis is then used to show boundedness of the wing bending dynamics. A Lyapunov-based boundary control strategy for an uncertain nonlinear PDE model of an aircraft wing is developed in Chapter 5. In this chapter, a proportional feedback term is coupled with an gradient-based adaptive update law to ensure asymptotic regulation of the flexible states.

The Effects of the Previous Outcome on Probabilistic Choice in Rats

PubMed Central

Marshall, Andrew T.; Kirkpatrick, Kimberly

2014-01-01

This study examined the effects of previous outcomes on subsequent choices in a probabilistic-choice task. Twenty-four rats were trained to choose between a certain outcome (1 or 3 pellets) versus an uncertain outcome (3 or 9 pellets), delivered with a probability of .1, .33, .67, and .9 in different phases. Uncertain outcome choices increased with the probability of uncertain food. Additionally, uncertain choices increased with the probability of uncertain food following both certain-choice outcomes and unrewarded uncertain choices. However, following uncertain-choice food outcomes, there was a tendency to choose the uncertain outcome in all cases, indicating that the rats continued to “gamble” after successful uncertain choices, regardless of the overall probability or magnitude of food. A subsequent manipulation, in which the probability of uncertain food varied within each session as a function of the previous uncertain outcome, examined how the previous outcome and probability of uncertain food affected choice in a dynamic environment. Uncertain-choice behavior increased with the probability of uncertain food. The rats exhibited increased sensitivity to probability changes and a greater degree of win–stay/lose–shift behavior than in the static phase. Simulations of two sequential choice models were performed to explore the possible mechanisms of reward value computations. The simulation results supported an exponentially decaying value function that updated as a function of trial (rather than time). These results emphasize the importance of analyzing global and local factors in choice behavior and suggest avenues for the future development of sequential-choice models. PMID:23205915

Adding stable carbon isotopes improves model representation of the role of microbial communities in peatland methane cycling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deng, Jia; McCalley, Carmody K.; Frolking, Steve

Climate change is expected to have significant and uncertain impacts on methane (CH 4) emissions from northern peatlands. Biogeochemical models can extrapolate site-specific CH 4 measurements to larger scales and predict responses of CH 4 emissions to environmental changes. However, these models include considerable uncertainties and limitations in representing CH4 production, consumption, and transport processes. To improve predictions of CH 4 transformations, we incorporated acetate and stable carbon (C) isotopic dynamics associated with CH 4 cycling into a biogeochemistry model, DNDC. By including these new features, DNDC explicitly simulates acetate dynamics and the relative contribution of acetotrophic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesismore » (AM and HM) to CH 4 production, and predicts the C isotopic signature (δ 13C) in soil C pools and emitted gases. When tested against biogeochemical and microbial community observations at two sites in a zone of thawing permafrost in a subarctic peatland in Sweden, the new formulation substantially improved agreement with CH 4 production pathways and δ 13C in emitted CH 4 (δ 13C-CH 4), a measure of the integrated effects of microbial production and consumption, and of physical transport. We also investigated the sensitivity of simulated δ 13C-CH 4 to C isotopic composition of substrates and, to fractionation factors for CH4 production (α AM and α HM), CH 4 oxidation (α MO), and plant-mediated CH 4 transport (α TP). The sensitivity analysis indicated that the δ13C-CH 4 is highly sensitive to the factors associated with microbial metabolism (α AM, α HM, and α MO). The model framework simulating stable C isotopic dynamics provides a robust basis for better constraining and testing microbial mechanisms in predicting CH 4 cycling in peatlands.« less

Cost-effectiveness of nitrogen mitigation by alternative household wastewater management technologies.

PubMed

Wood, Alison; Blackhurst, Michael; Hawkins, Troy; Xue, Xiaobo; Ashbolt, Nicholas; Garland, Jay

2015-03-01

Household wastewater, especially from conventional septic systems, is a major contributor to nitrogen pollution. Alternative household wastewater management technologies provide similar sewerage management services but their life cycle costs and nitrogen flow implications remain uncertain. This paper addresses two key questions: (1) what are the total costs, nitrogen mitigation potential, and cost-effectiveness of a range of conventional and alternative municipal wastewater treatment technologies, and (2) what uncertainties influence these outcomes and how can we improve our understanding of these technologies? We estimate a household nitrogen mass balance for various household wastewater treatment systems and combine this mass balance with life cycle cost assessment to calculate the cost-effectiveness of nitrogen mitigation, which we define as nitrogen removed from the local watershed. We apply our methods to Falmouth, MA, where failing septic systems have caused heightened eutrophication in local receiving water bodies. We find that flushing and dry (composting) urine-diversion toilets paired with conventional septic systems for greywater management demonstrate the lowest life cycle cost and highest cost-effectiveness (dollars per kilogram of nitrogen removed from the watershed). Composting toilets are also attractive options in some cases, particularly best-case nitrogen mitigation. Innovative/advanced septic systems designed for high-level nitrogen removal are cost-competitive options for newly constructed homes, except at their most expensive. A centralized wastewater treatment plant is the most expensive and least cost-effective option in all cases. Using a greywater recycling system with any treatment technology increases the cost without adding any nitrogen removal benefits. Sensitivity analysis shows that these results are robust considering a range of cases and uncertainties. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Comparison between remote sensing and a dynamic vegetation model for estimating terrestrial primary production of Africa.

PubMed

Ardö, Jonas

2015-12-01

Africa is an important part of the global carbon cycle. It is also a continent facing potential problems due to increasing resource demand in combination with climate change-induced changes in resource supply. Quantifying the pools and fluxes constituting the terrestrial African carbon cycle is a challenge, because of uncertainties in meteorological driver data, lack of validation data, and potentially uncertain representation of important processes in major ecosystems. In this paper, terrestrial primary production estimates derived from remote sensing and a dynamic vegetation model are compared and quantified for major African land cover types. Continental gross primary production estimates derived from remote sensing were higher than corresponding estimates derived from a dynamic vegetation model. However, estimates of continental net primary production from remote sensing were lower than corresponding estimates from the dynamic vegetation model. Variation was found among land cover classes, and the largest differences in gross primary production were found in the evergreen broadleaf forest. Average carbon use efficiency (NPP/GPP) was 0.58 for the vegetation model and 0.46 for the remote sensing method. Validation versus in situ data of aboveground net primary production revealed significant positive relationships for both methods. A combination of the remote sensing method with the dynamic vegetation model did not strongly affect this relationship. Observed significant differences in estimated vegetation productivity may have several causes, including model design and temperature sensitivity. Differences in carbon use efficiency reflect underlying model assumptions. Integrating the realistic process representation of dynamic vegetation models with the high resolution observational strength of remote sensing may support realistic estimation of components of the carbon cycle and enhance resource monitoring, providing suitable validation data is available.

Adding stable carbon isotopes improves model representation of the role of microbial communities in peatland methane cycling

DOE PAGES

Deng, Jia; McCalley, Carmody K.; Frolking, Steve; ...

2017-06-13

Climate change is expected to have significant and uncertain impacts on methane (CH 4) emissions from northern peatlands. Biogeochemical models can extrapolate site-specific CH 4 measurements to larger scales and predict responses of CH 4 emissions to environmental changes. However, these models include considerable uncertainties and limitations in representing CH4 production, consumption, and transport processes. To improve predictions of CH 4 transformations, we incorporated acetate and stable carbon (C) isotopic dynamics associated with CH 4 cycling into a biogeochemistry model, DNDC. By including these new features, DNDC explicitly simulates acetate dynamics and the relative contribution of acetotrophic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesismore » (AM and HM) to CH 4 production, and predicts the C isotopic signature (δ 13C) in soil C pools and emitted gases. When tested against biogeochemical and microbial community observations at two sites in a zone of thawing permafrost in a subarctic peatland in Sweden, the new formulation substantially improved agreement with CH 4 production pathways and δ 13C in emitted CH 4 (δ 13C-CH 4), a measure of the integrated effects of microbial production and consumption, and of physical transport. We also investigated the sensitivity of simulated δ 13C-CH 4 to C isotopic composition of substrates and, to fractionation factors for CH4 production (α AM and α HM), CH 4 oxidation (α MO), and plant-mediated CH 4 transport (α TP). The sensitivity analysis indicated that the δ13C-CH 4 is highly sensitive to the factors associated with microbial metabolism (α AM, α HM, and α MO). The model framework simulating stable C isotopic dynamics provides a robust basis for better constraining and testing microbial mechanisms in predicting CH 4 cycling in peatlands.« less

Sea-level projections representing the deeply uncertain contribution of the West Antarctic ice sheet.

PubMed

Bakker, Alexander M R; Wong, Tony E; Ruckert, Kelsey L; Keller, Klaus

2017-06-20

There is a growing awareness that uncertainties surrounding future sea-level projections may be much larger than typically perceived. Recently published projections appear widely divergent and highly sensitive to non-trivial model choices . Moreover, the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) may be much less stable than previous believed, enabling a rapid disintegration. Here, we present a set of probabilistic sea-level projections that approximates the deeply uncertain WAIS contributions. The projections aim to inform robust decisions by clarifying the sensitivity to non-trivial or controversial assumptions. We show that the deeply uncertain WAIS contribution can dominate other uncertainties within decades. These deep uncertainties call for the development of robust adaptive strategies. These decision-making needs, in turn, require mission-oriented basic science, for example about potential signposts and the maximum rate of WAIS-induced sea-level changes.

Novel density-based and hierarchical density-based clustering algorithms for uncertain data.

PubMed

Zhang, Xianchao; Liu, Han; Zhang, Xiaotong

2017-09-01

Uncertain data has posed a great challenge to traditional clustering algorithms. Recently, several algorithms have been proposed for clustering uncertain data, and among them density-based techniques seem promising for handling data uncertainty. However, some issues like losing uncertain information, high time complexity and nonadaptive threshold have not been addressed well in the previous density-based algorithm FDBSCAN and hierarchical density-based algorithm FOPTICS. In this paper, we firstly propose a novel density-based algorithm PDBSCAN, which improves the previous FDBSCAN from the following aspects: (1) it employs a more accurate method to compute the probability that the distance between two uncertain objects is less than or equal to a boundary value, instead of the sampling-based method in FDBSCAN; (2) it introduces new definitions of probability neighborhood, support degree, core object probability, direct reachability probability, thus reducing the complexity and solving the issue of nonadaptive threshold (for core object judgement) in FDBSCAN. Then, we modify the algorithm PDBSCAN to an improved version (PDBSCANi), by using a better cluster assignment strategy to ensure that every object will be assigned to the most appropriate cluster, thus solving the issue of nonadaptive threshold (for direct density reachability judgement) in FDBSCAN. Furthermore, as PDBSCAN and PDBSCANi have difficulties for clustering uncertain data with non-uniform cluster density, we propose a novel hierarchical density-based algorithm POPTICS by extending the definitions of PDBSCAN, adding new definitions of fuzzy core distance and fuzzy reachability distance, and employing a new clustering framework. POPTICS can reveal the cluster structures of the datasets with different local densities in different regions better than PDBSCAN and PDBSCANi, and it addresses the issues in FOPTICS. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our proposed algorithms over the existing algorithms in accuracy and efficiency. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rational selection of experimental readout and intervention sites for reducing uncertainties in computational model predictions.

PubMed

Flassig, Robert J; Migal, Iryna; der Zalm, Esther van; Rihko-Struckmann, Liisa; Sundmacher, Kai

2015-01-16

Understanding the dynamics of biological processes can substantially be supported by computational models in the form of nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODE). Typically, this model class contains many unknown parameters, which are estimated from inadequate and noisy data. Depending on the ODE structure, predictions based on unmeasured states and associated parameters are highly uncertain, even undetermined. For given data, profile likelihood analysis has been proven to be one of the most practically relevant approaches for analyzing the identifiability of an ODE structure, and thus model predictions. In case of highly uncertain or non-identifiable parameters, rational experimental design based on various approaches has shown to significantly reduce parameter uncertainties with minimal amount of effort. In this work we illustrate how to use profile likelihood samples for quantifying the individual contribution of parameter uncertainty to prediction uncertainty. For the uncertainty quantification we introduce the profile likelihood sensitivity (PLS) index. Additionally, for the case of several uncertain parameters, we introduce the PLS entropy to quantify individual contributions to the overall prediction uncertainty. We show how to use these two criteria as an experimental design objective for selecting new, informative readouts in combination with intervention site identification. The characteristics of the proposed multi-criterion objective are illustrated with an in silico example. We further illustrate how an existing practically non-identifiable model for the chlorophyll fluorescence induction in a photosynthetic organism, D. salina, can be rendered identifiable by additional experiments with new readouts. Having data and profile likelihood samples at hand, the here proposed uncertainty quantification based on prediction samples from the profile likelihood provides a simple way for determining individual contributions of parameter uncertainties to uncertainties in model predictions. The uncertainty quantification of specific model predictions allows identifying regions, where model predictions have to be considered with care. Such uncertain regions can be used for a rational experimental design to render initially highly uncertain model predictions into certainty. Finally, our uncertainty quantification directly accounts for parameter interdependencies and parameter sensitivities of the specific prediction.

Effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycling: interactions and feedbacks.

PubMed

Zepp, R G; Erickson, D J; Paul, N D; Sulzberger, B

2011-02-01

Solar UV radiation, climate and other drivers of global change are undergoing significant changes and models forecast that these changes will continue for the remainder of this century. Here we assess the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles and the interactions of these effects with climate change, including feedbacks on climate. Such interactions occur in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. While there is significant uncertainty in the quantification of these effects, they could accelerate the rate of atmospheric CO(2) increase and subsequent climate change beyond current predictions. The effects of predicted changes in climate and solar UV radiation on carbon cycling in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are expected to vary significantly between regions. The balance of positive and negative effects on terrestrial carbon cycling remains uncertain, but the interactions between UV radiation and climate change are likely to contribute to decreasing sink strength in many oceanic regions. Interactions between climate and solar UV radiation will affect cycling of elements other than carbon, and so will influence the concentration of greenhouse and ozone-depleting gases. For example, increases in oxygen-deficient regions of the ocean caused by climate change are projected to enhance the emissions of nitrous oxide, an important greenhouse and ozone-depleting gas. Future changes in UV-induced transformations of aquatic and terrestrial contaminants could have both beneficial and adverse effects. Taken in total, it is clear that the future changes in UV radiation coupled with human-caused global change will have large impacts on biogeochemical cycles at local, regional and global scales.

Importance of vegetation dynamics for future terrestrial carbon cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahlström, Anders; Xia, Jianyang; Arneth, Almut; Luo, Yiqi; Smith, Benjamin

2015-05-01

Terrestrial ecosystems currently sequester about one third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions each year, an important ecosystem service that dampens climate change. The future fate of this net uptake of CO2 by land based ecosystems is highly uncertain. Most ecosystem models used to predict the future terrestrial carbon cycle share a common architecture, whereby carbon that enters the system as net primary production (NPP) is distributed to plant compartments, transferred to litter and soil through vegetation turnover and then re-emitted to the atmosphere in conjunction with soil decomposition. However, while all models represent the processes of NPP and soil decomposition, they vary greatly in their representations of vegetation turnover and the associated processes governing mortality, disturbance and biome shifts. Here we used a detailed second generation dynamic global vegetation model with advanced representation of vegetation growth and mortality, and the associated turnover. We apply an emulator that describes the carbon flows and pools exactly as in simulations with the full model. The emulator simulates ecosystem dynamics in response to 13 different climate or Earth system model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble under RCP8.5 radiative forcing. By exchanging carbon cycle processes between these 13 simulations we quantified the relative roles of three main driving processes of the carbon cycle; (I) NPP, (II) vegetation dynamics and turnover and (III) soil decomposition, in terms of their contribution to future carbon (C) uptake uncertainties among the ensemble of climate change scenarios. We found that NPP, vegetation turnover (including structural shifts, wild fires and mortality) and soil decomposition rates explained 49%, 17% and 33%, respectively, of uncertainties in modelled global C-uptake. Uncertainty due to vegetation turnover was further partitioned into stand-clearing disturbances (16%), wild fires (0%), stand dynamics (7%), reproduction (10%) and biome shifts (67%) globally. We conclude that while NPP and soil decomposition rates jointly account for 83% of future climate induced C-uptake uncertainties, vegetation turnover and structure, dominated by biome shifts, represent a significant fraction globally and regionally (tropical forests: 40%), strongly motivating their representation and analysis in future C-cycle studies.

Leveraging this Golden Age of Remote Sensing and Modeling of Terrestrial Hydrology to Understand Water Cycling in the Water Availability Grand Challenge for North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Painter, T. H.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Stephens, G. L.

2016-12-01

We live in a time of increasing strains on our global fresh water availability due to increasing population, warming climate, changes in precipitation, and extensive depletion of groundwater supplies. At the same time, we have seen enormous growth in capabilities to remotely sense the regional to global water cycle and model complex systems with physically based frameworks. The GEWEX Water Availability Grand Challenge for North America is poised to leverage this convergence of remote sensing and modeling capabilities to answer fundamental questions on the water cycle. In particular, we envision an experiment that targets the complex and resource-critical Western US from California to just into the Great Plains, constraining physically-based hydrologic modeling with the US and international remote sensing capabilities. In particular, the last decade has seen the implementation or soon-to-be launch of water cycle missions such as GRACE and GRACE-FO for groundwater, SMAP for soil moisture, GPM for precipitation, SWOT for terrestrial surface water, and the Airborne Snow Observatory for snowpack. With the advent of convection-resolving mesoscale climate and water cycle modeling (e.g. WRF, WRF-Hydro) and mesoscale models capable of quantitative assimilation of remotely sensed data (e.g. the JPL Western States Water Mission), we can now begin to test hypotheses on the nature and changes in the water cycle of the Western US from a physical standpoint. In turn, by fusing water cycle science, water management, and ecosystem management while addressing these hypotheses, this golden age of remote sensing and modeling can bring all fields into a markedly less uncertain state of present knowledge and decadal scale forecasts.

L1 adaptive control of uncertain gear transmission servo systems with deadzone nonlinearity.

PubMed

Zuo, Zongyu; Li, Xiao; Shi, Zhiguang

2015-09-01

This paper deals with the adaptive control problem of Gear Transmission Servo (GTS) systems in the presence of unknown deadzone nonlinearity and viscous friction. A global differential homeomorphism based on a novel differentiable deadzone model is proposed first. Since there exist both matched and unmatched state-dependent unknown nonlinearities, a full-state feedback L1 adaptive controller is constructed to achieve uniformly bounded transient response in addition to steady-state performance. Finally, simulation results are included to show the elimination of limit cycles, in addition to demonstrating the main results in this paper. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Are the infrared-faint radio sources pulsars?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cameron, A. D.; Keith, M.; Hobbs, G.; Norris, R. P.; Mao, M. Y.; Middelberg, E.

2011-07-01

Infrared-faint radio sources (IFRS) are objects which are strong at radio wavelengths but undetected in sensitive Spitzer observations at infrared wavelengths. Their nature is uncertain and most have not yet been associated with any known astrophysical object. One possibility is that they are radio pulsars. To test this hypothesis we undertook observations of 16 of these sources with the Parkes Radio Telescope. Our results limit the radio emission to a pulsed flux density of less than 0.21 mJy (assuming a 50 per cent duty cycle). This is well below the flux density of the IFRS. We therefore conclude that these IFRS are not radio pulsars.

An evidential reasoning-based AHP approach for the selection of environmentally-friendly designs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NG, C.Y., E-mail: ng.cy@cityu.edu.hk

Due to the stringent environmental regulatory requirements being imposed by cross-national bodies in recent years, manufacturers have to minimize the environmental impact of their products. Among those environmental impact evaluation tools available, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is often employed to quantify the product's environmental impact throughout its entire life cycle. However, owing to the requirements of expert knowledge in environmental science and vast effort for data collection in carrying out LCA, as well as the common absence of complete product information during product development processes, there is a need to develop a more suitable tool for product designers. An evidentialmore » reasoning-based approach, which aims at providing a fast-track method to perform design alternative evaluations for non-LCA experts, is therefore introduced as a new initiative to deal with the incomplete or uncertain information. The proposed approach also enables decision makers to quantitatively assess the life cycle phases and design alternatives by comparing their potential environmental impacts, thus effectively and efficiently facilitates the identification of greener designs. A case application is carried out to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach.« less

Life cycle assessment of overhead and underground primary power distribution.

PubMed

Bumby, Sarah; Druzhinina, Ekaterina; Feraldi, Rebe; Werthmann, Danae; Geyer, Roland; Sahl, Jack

2010-07-15

Electrical power can be distributed in overhead or underground systems, both of which generate a variety of environmental impacts at all stages of their life cycles. While there is considerable literature discussing the trade-offs between both systems in terms of aesthetics, safety, cost, and reliability, environmental assessments are relatively rare and limited to power cable production and end-of-life management. This paper assesses environmental impacts from overhead and underground medium voltage power distribution systems as they are currently built and managed by Southern California Edison (SCE). It uses process-based life cycle assessment (LCA) according to ISO 14044 (2006) and SCE-specific primary data to the extent possible. Potential environmental impacts have been calculated using a wide range of midpoint indicators, and robustness of the results has been investigated through sensitivity analysis of the most uncertain and potentially significant parameters. The studied underground system has higher environmental impacts in all indicators and for all parameter values, mostly due to its higher material intensity. For both systems and all indicators the majority of impact occurs during cable production. Promising strategies for impact reduction are thus cable failure rate reduction for overhead and cable lifetime extension for underground systems.

Astronomical pacing of the global silica cycle recorded in Mesozoic bedded cherts

PubMed Central

Ikeda, Masayuki; Tada, Ryuji; Ozaki, Kazumi

2017-01-01

The global silica cycle is an important component of the long-term climate system, yet its controlling factors are largely uncertain due to poorly constrained proxy records. Here we present a ∼70 Myr-long record of early Mesozoic biogenic silica (BSi) flux from radiolarian chert in Japan. Average low-mid-latitude BSi burial flux in the superocean Panthalassa is ∼90% of that of the modern global ocean and relative amplitude varied by ∼20–50% over the 100 kyr to 30 Myr orbital cycles during the early Mesozoic. We hypothesize that BSi in chert was a major sink for oceanic dissolved silica (DSi), with fluctuations proportional to DSi input from chemical weathering on timescales longer than the residence time of DSi (<∼100 Kyr). Chemical weathering rates estimated by the GEOCARBSULFvolc model support these hypotheses, excluding the volcanism-driven oceanic anoxic events of the Early-Middle Triassic and Toarcian that exceed model limits. We propose that the Mega monsoon of the supercontinent Pangea nonlinearly amplified the orbitally paced chemical weathering that drove BSi burial during the early Mesozoic greenhouse world. PMID:28589958

Cost-Effectiveness of Nitrogen Mitigation by Alternative ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Household wastewater, especially from conventional septic systems, is a major contributor to nitrogen pollution. Alternative household wastewater management technologies provide similar sewerage management services but their life cycle costs and nitrogen flow implications remain uncertain. We seek to address two key questions: (1) what are the total costs, nitrogen mitigation potential, and cost-effectiveness of a range of conventional and alternative municipal wastewater treatment technologies, and (2) what uncertainties influence these outcomes, and how can we improve our understanding of these technologies? We estimate a household nitrogen mass balance for various household wastewater treatment systems and combine this mass balance with life cycle cost assessment to calculate the cost-effectiveness of nitrogen mitigation, which we define as nitrogen removed from the local watershed. We apply our methods to Falmouth, MA, where failing septic systems have caused heightened eutrophication in local receiving water bodies. We find that flushing and dry (composting) urine-diversion toilets paired with conventional septic systems for greywater management demonstrate the lowest life cycle cost and highest cost-effectiveness (dollars per kilogram of nitrogen removed from the watershed). Composting toilets and neighborhood-scale blackwater digesters are also attractive options in some cases, particularly best-case nitrogen mitigation; innovative/advanced septic system

Penetration of hydrogen-based energy system and its potential for causing global environmental change: Scoping risk analysis based on life cycle thinking

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kikuchi, Ryunosuke

2006-03-15

A hydrogen-based economy seems superficially to be environmentally friendly, and many people have worked toward its realization. Today hydrogen is mainly produced by decarbonizing fossil fuels (e.g. natural gas), and in the future decarbonization of both fossil fuels and biomass will play a leading role in the production of hydrogen. The main purpose of this paper is to suggest the identification of potential environmental risks in terms of 'life cycle thinking' (which considers all aspects from production to utilization) with regard to the hydrogen-based economy to come. Hydrogen production by decarbonization results in CO{sub 2} emissions. The final destination ofmore » the recovered CO{sub 2} is uncertain. Furthermore, there is a possibility that hydrogen molecules will escape to the atmosphere, posing risks that could occasion global environmental changes such as depletion of stratospheric ozone, temperature change in the stratosphere and change of the hydrides cycle through global vaporization. Based on the results of simulation, requirements regarding the following items are proposed to minimize potential risks: hydrogen source, production and storage loss.« less

Methane Emissions from Bangladesh: Bridging the Gap Between Ground-based and Space-borne Estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, C.; Bennartz, R.; Hornberger, G. M.

2015-12-01

Gaining an understanding of methane (CH4) emission sources and atmospheric dispersion is an essential part of climate change research. Large-scale and global studies often rely on satellite observations of column CH4 mixing ratio whereas high-spatial resolution estimates rely on ground-based measurements. Extrapolation of ground-based measurements on, for example, rice paddies to broad region scales is highly uncertain because of spatio-temporal variability. We explore the use of ground-based river stage measurements and independent satellite observations of flooded area along with satellite measurements of CH4 mixing ratio to estimate the extent of methane emissions. Bangladesh, which comprises most of the Ganges Brahmaputra Meghna (GBM) delta, is a region of particular interest for studying spatio-temporal variation of methane emissions due to (1) broadscale rice cultivation and (2) seasonal flooding and atmospheric convection during the monsoon. Bangladesh and its deltaic landscape exhibit a broad range of environmental, economic, and social circumstances that are relevant to many nations in South and Southeast Asia. We explore the seasonal enhancement of CH4 in Bangladesh using passive remote sensing spectrometer CH4 products from the SCanning Imaging Absorption SpectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY) and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). The seasonal variation of CH4 is compared to independent estimates of seasonal flooding from water gauge stations and space-based passive microwave water-to-land fractions from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager (TRMM-TMI). Annual cycles in inundation (natural and anthropogenic) and atmospheric CH4 concentrations show highly correlated seasonal signals. NOAA's HYSPLIT model is used to determine atmospheric residence time of ground CH4 fluxes. Using the satellite observations, we can narrow the large uncertainty in extrapolation of ground-based CH4 emission estimates from rice paddies, allowing for country-wide upscaling of high spatial resolution data. This approach allows for better informed carbon cycling modeling for the GBM delta and is applicable to other regions.

Uncertainty is associated with increased selective attention and sustained stimulus processing.

PubMed

Dieterich, Raoul; Endrass, Tanja; Kathmann, Norbert

2016-06-01

Uncertainty about future threat has been found to be associated with an overestimation of threat probability and is hypothesized to elicit additional allocation of attention. We used event-related potentials to examine uncertainty-related dynamics in attentional allocation, exploiting brain potentials' high temporal resolution and sensitivity to attention. Thirty participants performed a picture-viewing task in which cues indicated the subsequent picture valence. A certain-neutral and a certain-aversive cue accurately predicted subsequent picture valence, whereas an uncertain cue did not. Participants overestimated the effective frequency of aversive pictures following the uncertain cue, both during and after the task, signifying expectancy and covariation biases, and they tended to express lower subjective valences for aversive pictures presented after the uncertain cue. Pictures elicited increased P2 and LPP amplitudes when their valence could not be predicted from the cue. For the LPP, this effect was more pronounced in response to neutral pictures. Uncertainty appears to enhance the engagement of early phasic and sustained attention for uncertainly cued targets. Thus, defensive motivation related to uncertainty about future threat elicits specific attentional dynamics implicating prioritization at various processing stages, especially for nonthreatening stimuli that tend to violate expectations.

Evaluating Rapid Models for High-Throughput Exposure Forecasting (SOT)

EPA Science Inventory

High throughput exposure screening models can provide quantitative predictions for thousands of chemicals; however these predictions must be systematically evaluated for predictive ability. Without the capability to make quantitative, albeit uncertain, forecasts of exposure, the ...

ProMotE: an efficient algorithm for counting independent motifs in uncertain network topologies.

PubMed

Ren, Yuanfang; Sarkar, Aisharjya; Kahveci, Tamer

2018-06-26

Identifying motifs in biological networks is essential in uncovering key functions served by these networks. Finding non-overlapping motif instances is however a computationally challenging task. The fact that biological interactions are uncertain events further complicates the problem, as it makes the existence of an embedding of a given motif an uncertain event as well. In this paper, we develop a novel method, ProMotE (Probabilistic Motif Embedding), to count non-overlapping embeddings of a given motif in probabilistic networks. We utilize a polynomial model to capture the uncertainty. We develop three strategies to scale our algorithm to large networks. Our experiments demonstrate that our method scales to large networks in practical time with high accuracy where existing methods fail. Moreover, our experiments on cancer and degenerative disease networks show that our method helps in uncovering key functional characteristics of biological networks.

Adaptive output feedback control of uncertain nonlinear systems using single-hidden-layer neural networks.

PubMed

Hovakimyan, N; Nardi, F; Calise, A; Kim, Nakwan

2002-01-01

We consider adaptive output feedback control of uncertain nonlinear systems, in which both the dynamics and the dimension of the regulated system may be unknown. However, the relative degree of the regulated output is assumed to be known. Given a smooth reference trajectory, the problem is to design a controller that forces the system measurement to track it with bounded errors. The classical approach requires a state observer. Finding a good observer for an uncertain nonlinear system is not an obvious task. We argue that it is sufficient to build an observer for the output tracking error. Ultimate boundedness of the error signals is shown through Lyapunov's direct method. The theoretical results are illustrated in the design of a controller for a fourth-order nonlinear system of relative degree two and a high-bandwidth attitude command system for a model R-50 helicopter.

A Continuous Labour Supply Model in Microsimulation: A Life-Cycle Modelling Approach with Heterogeneity and Uncertainty Extension

PubMed Central

Li, Jinjing; Sologon, Denisa Maria

2014-01-01

This paper advances a structural inter-temporal model of labour supply that is able to simulate the dynamics of labour supply in a continuous setting and addresses two main drawbacks of most existing models. The first limitation is the inability to incorporate individual heterogeneity as every agent is sharing the same parameters of the utility function. The second one is the strong assumption that individuals make decisions in a world of perfect certainty. Essentially, this paper offers an extension of marginal-utility-of-wealth-constant labour supply functions known as “Frisch functions” under certainty and uncertainty with homogenous and heterogeneous preferences. The lifetime models based on the fixed effect vector decomposition yield the most stable simulation results, under both certain and uncertain future wage assumptions. Due to its improved accuracy and stability, this lifetime labour supply model is particularly suitable for enhancing the performance of the life cycle simulation models, thus providing a better reference for policymaking. PMID:25391021

Climate change in Brazil: perspective on the biogeochemistry of inland waters.

PubMed

Roland, F; Huszar, V L M; Farjalla, Vf; Enrich-Prast, A; Amado, A M; Ometto, J P H B

2012-08-01

Although only a small amount of the Earth's water exists as continental surface water bodies, this compartment plays an important role in the biogeochemical cycles connecting the land to the atmosphere. The territory of Brazil encompasses a dense river net and enormous number of shallow lakes. Human actions have been heavily influenced by the inland waters across the country. Both biodiversity and processes in the water are strongly driven by seasonal fluvial forces and/or precipitation. These macro drivers are sensitive to climate changes. In addition to their crucial importance to humans, inland waters are extremely rich ecosystems, harboring high biodiversity, promoting landscape equilibrium (connecting ecosystems, maintaining animal and plant flows in the landscape, and transferring mass, nutrients and inocula), and controlling regional climates through hydrological-cycle feedback. In this contribution, we describe the aquatic ecological responses to climate change in a conceptual perspective, and we then analyze the possible climate-change scenarios in different regions in Brazil. We also indentify some potential biogeochemical signals in running waters, natural lakes and man-made impoundments. The possible future changes in climate and aquatic ecosystems in Brazil are highly uncertain. Inland waters are pressured by local environmental changes because of land uses, landscape fragmentation, damming and diversion of water bodies, urbanization, wastewater load, and level of pollutants can alter biogeochemical patterns in inland waters over a shorter term than can climate changes. In fact, many intense environmental changes may enhance the effects of changes in climate. Therefore, the maintenance of key elements within the landscape and avoiding extreme perturbation in the systems are urgent to maintain the sustainability of Brazilian inland waters, in order to prevent more catastrophic future events.

Importance of Rain Evaporation and Continental Convection in the Tropical Water Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Worden, John; Noone, David; Bowman, Kevin; Beer, R.; Eldering, A.; Fisher, B.; Gunson, M.; Goldman, Aaron; Kulawik, S. S.; Lampel, Michael;

Importance of rain evaporation and continental convection in the tropical water cycle.

PubMed

Worden, John; Noone, David; Bowman, Kevin

2007-02-01

Atmospheric moisture cycling is an important aspect of the Earth's climate system, yet the processes determining atmospheric humidity are poorly understood. For example, direct evaporation of rain contributes significantly to the heat and moisture budgets of clouds, but few observations of these processes are available. Similarly, the relative contributions to atmospheric moisture over land from local evaporation and humidity from oceanic sources are uncertain. Lighter isotopes of water vapour preferentially evaporate whereas heavier isotopes preferentially condense and the isotopic composition of ocean water is known. Here we use this information combined with global measurements of the isotopic composition of tropospheric water vapour from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) aboard the Aura spacecraft, to investigate aspects of the atmospheric hydrological cycle that are not well constrained by observations of precipitation or atmospheric vapour content. Our measurements of the isotopic composition of water vapour near tropical clouds suggest that rainfall evaporation contributes significantly to lower troposphere humidity, with typically 20% and up to 50% of rainfall evaporating near convective clouds. Over the tropical continents the isotopic signature of tropospheric water vapour differs significantly from that of precipitation, suggesting that convection of vapour from both oceanic sources and evapotranspiration are the dominant moisture sources. Our measurements allow an assessment of the intensity of the present hydrological cycle and will help identify any future changes as they occur.

Sediment load from major rivers into Puget Sound and its adjacent waters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Czuba, Jonathan A.; Magirl, Christopher S.; Czuba, Christiana R.; Grossman, Eric E.; Curran, Christopher A.; Gendaszek, Andrew S.; Dinicola, Richard S.

2011-01-01

Each year, an estimated load of 6.5 million tons of sediment is transported by rivers to Puget Sound and its adjacent waters—enough to cover a football field to the height of six Space Needles. This estimated load is highly uncertain because sediment studies and available sediment-load data are sparse and historically limited to specific rivers, short time frames, and a narrow range of hydrologic conditions. The largest sediment loads are carried by rivers with glaciated volcanoes in their headwaters. Research suggests 70 percent of the sediment load delivered to Puget Sound is from rivers and 30 percent is from shoreline erosion, but the magnitude of specific contributions is highly uncertain. Most of a river's sediment load occurs during floods.

Net ecosystem CO2 exchange of a primary tropical peat swamp forest in Sarawak, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang Che Ing, A.; Stoy, P. C.; Melling, L.

2014-12-01

Tropical peat swamp forests are widely recognized as one of the world's most efficient ecosystems for the sequestration and storage of carbon through both their aboveground biomass and underlying thick deposits of peat. As the peat characteristics exhibit high spatial and temporal variability as well as the structural and functional complexity of forests, tropical peat ecosystems can act naturally as both carbon sinks and sources over their life cycles. Nonetheless, few reports of studies on the ecosystem-scale CO2 exchange of tropical peat swamp forests are available to-date and their present roles in the global carbon cycle remain uncertain. To quantify CO2 exchange and unravel the prevailing factors and potential underlying mechanism regulating net CO2 fluxes, an eddy covariance tower was erected in a tropical peat swamp forest in Sarawak, Malaysia. We observed that the diurnal and seasonal patterns of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and its components (gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE)) varied between seasons and years. Rates of NEE declined in the wet season relative to the dry season. Conversely, both the gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE) were found to be higher during the wet season than the dry season, in which GPP was strongly negatively correlated with NEE. The average annual NEE was 385 ± 74 g C m-2 yr-1, indicating the primary peat swamp forest functioned as net source of CO2 to the atmosphere over the observation period.

Anxiety associated with diagnostic uncertainty in early pregnancy.

PubMed

Richardson, A; Raine-Fenning, N; Deb, S; Campbell, B; Vedhara, K

2017-08-01

To determine anxiety levels of women presenting to an early pregnancy assessment unit (EPAU) with abdominal pain and/or vaginal bleeding and to assess how these levels change over time and according to ultrasonographic diagnosis. We undertook a prospective cohort study in an EPAU in a large UK teaching hospital. Women with abdominal pain and/or vaginal bleeding in early pregnancy (< 12 weeks' gestation) presenting for the first time were eligible for inclusion in the study. State anxiety levels were assessed using the standardized short form of Spielberger's state-trait anxiety inventory (STAI) on three occasions (before, immediately after and 48-72 hours after an ultrasound scan). Scores were correlated with ultrasonographic diagnosis. The diagnosis was either certain or uncertain. Certain diagnoses were either positive, i.e. a viable intrauterine pregnancy (IUP), or negative, i.e. a non-viable IUP or ectopic pregnancy. Uncertain diagnoses included pregnancy of unknown location and pregnancy of uncertain viability. Statistical analysis involved mixed ANOVAs and the post-hoc Tukey-Kramer test. A total of 160 women were included in the study. Anxiety levels decreased over time for women with a certain diagnosis (n = 128), even when negative (n = 64), and increased over time for women with an uncertain diagnosis (n = 32). Before the ultrasound examination, anxiety levels were high (STAI value, 21.96 ± 1.11) and there was no significant difference between the five groups. Immediately after the ultrasound examination, anxiety levels were lower in the viable IUP group (n = 64; 7.75 ± 1.13) than in any other group. The difference between the five groups was significant (P < 0.005). After 48-72 hours, women with a certain diagnosis had significantly lower anxiety levels than had those with an uncertain diagnosis (10.77 ± 4.30 vs 22.94 ± 1.65; P < 0.005). The experience of abdominal pain and/or vaginal bleeding in early pregnancy is highly anxiogenic. Following an ultrasound examination, the certainty of the diagnosis affects anxiety levels more than does the positive or negative connotations associated with the diagnosis per se. Healthcare providers should be aware of this when communicating uncertain diagnoses. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Increased light-use efficiency in northern terrestrial ecosystems indicated by CO 2 and greening observations: INCREASE IN NH LIGHT USE EFFICIENCY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomas, Rebecca T.; Prentice, Iain Colin; Graven, Heather

2016-11-04

Observations show an increasing amplitude in the seasonal cycle of CO2 (ASC) north of 45°N of 56 ± 9.8% over the last 50 years and an increase in vegetation greenness of 7.5–15% in high northern latitudes since the 1980s. However, the causes of these changes remain uncertain. Historical simulations from terrestrial biosphere models in the Multiscale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project are compared to the ASC and greenness observations, using the TM3 atmospheric transport model to translate surface fluxes into CO2 concentrations. We find that the modeled change in ASC is too small but the mean greening trend ismore » generally captured. Modeled increases in greenness are primarily driven by warming, whereas ASC changes are primarily driven by increasing CO2. We suggest that increases in ecosystem-scale light use efficiency (LUE) have contributed to the observed ASC increase but are underestimated by current models. We highlight potential mechanisms that could increase modeled LUE.« less

Biomarkers of ovarian reserve as predictors of reproductive potential.

PubMed

Steiner, Anne Z

2013-11-01

The size of the oocyte pool, the ovarian reserve, can determine a woman's reproductive stage. Chronologic age, anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels, early follicular phase follicle-stimulating hormone levels, and early follicular phase inhibin B levels are correlated with ovarian reserve. Therefore, these biomarkers of ovarian reserve should serve as predictors of reproductive potential. Clinical and epidemiologic studies suggest that historical and laboratory biomarkers of ovarian reserve are associated with natural and treatment-related fertility. However, controversy remains as to their ability to predict reproductive potential. For infertile women undergoing assisted reproductive technology treatment, these biomarkers tend to be highly specific but not sensitive for cycle failure (nonpregnancy). While these biomarkers are being used as "fertility tests" in the general population, their value as predictors of unassisted fertility is still uncertain. Among laboratory biomarkers, AMH appears to have the most promise; however, further studies are needed to refine cutoff values and to determine test characteristics in the prediction of natural fertility or infertility in the general population. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Brevetoxin (PbTx-2) influences the redox status and NPQ of Karenia brevis by way of thioredoxin reductase.

PubMed

Chen, Wei; Colon, Ricardo; Louda, J William; Del Rey, Freddy Rodriguez; Durham, Michaella; Rein, Kathleen S

2018-01-01

The Florida red tide dinoflagellate, Karenia brevis, is the major harmful algal bloom dinoflagellate of the Gulf of Mexico and plays a destructive role in the region. Blooms of K. brevis can produce brevetoxins: ladder-shaped polyether (LSP) compounds, which can lead to adverse human health effects, such as reduced respiratory function through inhalation exposure, or neurotoxic shellfish poisoning through consumption of contaminated shellfish. The endogenous role of the brevetoxins remains uncertain. Recent work has shown that some forms of NADPH dependent thioredoxin reductase (NTR) are inhibited by brevetoxin-2 (PbTx-2). The study presented herein reveals that high toxin and low toxin K. brevis, which have a ten-fold difference in toxin content, also show a significant difference in their ability, not only to produce brevetoxin, but also in their cellular redox status and distribution of xanthophyll cycle pigments. These differences are likely due to the inhibition of NTR by brevetoxin. The work could shed light on the physiological role that brevetoxin fills for K. brevis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecosystem conceptual model- Mercury

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alpers, Charles N.; Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Foe, Chris; Klasing, Susan; Marvin-DiPasquale, Mark C.; Slotton, Darell G.; Windham-Myers, Lisamarie

2008-01-01

Mercury has been identified as an important contaminant in the Delta, based on elevated concentrations of methylmercury (a toxic, organic form that readily bioaccumulates) in fish and wildlife. There are health risks associated with human exposure to methylmercury by consumption of sport fish, particularly top predators such as bass species. Original mercury sources were upstream tributaries where historical mining of mercury in the Coast Ranges and gold in the Sierra Nevada and Klamath-Trinity Mountains caused contamination of water and sediment on a regional scale. Remediation of abandoned mine sites may reduce local sources in these watersheds, but much of the mercury contamination occurs in sediments stored in the riverbeds, floodplains, and the Bay- Delta, where scouring of Gold-Rush-era sediment represents an ongoing source.Conversion of inorganic mercury to toxic methylmercury occurs in anaerobic environments including some wetlands. Wetland restoration managers must be cognizant of potential effects on mercury cycling so that the problem is not exacerbated. Recent research suggests that wettingdrying cycles can contribute to mercury methylation. For example, high marshes (inundated only during the highest tides for several days per month) tend to have higher methylmercury concentrations in water, sediment, and biota compared with low marshes, which do not dry out completely during the tidal cycle. Seasonally inundated flood plains are another environment experiencing wetting and drying where methylmercury concentrations are typically elevated. Stream restoration efforts using gravel injection or other reworking of coarse sediment in most watersheds of the Central Valley involve tailings from historical gold mining that are likely to contain elevated mercury in associated fines. Habitat restoration projects, particularly those involving wetlands, may cause increases in methylmercury exposure in the watershed. This possibility should be evaluated.The DRERIP mercury conceptual model and its four submodels (1. Methylation, 2. Bioaccumulation, 3. Human Health Effects, and 4. Wildlife Heath Effects) can be used to understand the general relationships among drivers and outcomes associated with mercury cycling in the Delta. Several linkages between important drivers and outcomes have been identified as important but highly uncertain (i.e. poorly understood). For example, there may be significant wildlife health effect of mercury on mammals and reptiles in the Delta, but there is currently very little or no information about it. The characteristics of such linkages are important when prioritizing and funding restoration projects and associated monitoring in the Delta and its tributaries.

High purity tungsten targets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

High purity tungsten, which is used for targets in X-ray tubes was considered for space processing. The demand for X-ray tubes was calculated using the growth rates for dental and medical X-ray machines. It is concluded that the cost benefits are uncertain.

Cerulean Warbler Occurrence Atlas for Military Installations

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

Army Ammuniton Plant (Closed) IN NO 2009 Army IOWA ARMY AMMUNITION PLANT IA UNCERTAIN 2009 USACE J. Percy Priest Lake TN UNCERTAIN 2009 USACE J...Stonewall Jackson Lake WV UNCERTAIN 2009 USACE Summersville Lake WV no POC Army Sunflower Army Ammunition Plant KS no POC USACE Sutton Lake WV UNCERTAIN

Cross-talk between branched-chain amino acids and hepatic mitochondria is compromised in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

PubMed

Sunny, Nishanth E; Kalavalapalli, Srilaxmi; Bril, Fernando; Garrett, Timothy J; Nautiyal, Manisha; Mathew, Justin T; Williams, Caroline M; Cusi, Kenneth

2015-08-15

Elevated plasma branched-chain amino acids (BCAA) in the setting of insulin resistance have been relevant in predicting type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) onset, but their role in the etiology of hepatic insulin resistance remains uncertain. We determined the link between BCAA and dysfunctional hepatic tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle, which is a central feature of hepatic insulin resistance and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Plasma metabolites under basal fasting and euglycemic hyperinsulinemic clamps (insulin stimulation) were measured in 94 human subjects with varying degrees of insulin sensitivity to identify their relationships with insulin resistance. Furthermore, the impact of elevated BCAA on hepatic TCA cycle was determined in a diet-induced mouse model of NAFLD, utilizing targeted metabolomics and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR)-based metabolic flux analysis. Insulin stimulation revealed robust relationships between human plasma BCAA and indices of insulin resistance, indicating chronic metabolic overload from BCAA. Human plasma BCAA and long-chain acylcarnitines also showed a positive correlation, suggesting modulation of mitochondrial metabolism by BCAA. Concurrently, mice with NAFLD failed to optimally induce hepatic mTORC1, plasma ketones, and hepatic long-chain acylcarnitines, following acute elevation of plasma BCAA. Furthermore, elevated BCAA failed to induce multiple fluxes through hepatic TCA cycle in mice with NAFLD. Our data suggest that BCAA are essential to mediate efficient channeling of carbon substrates for oxidation through mitochondrial TCA cycle. Impairment of BCAA-mediated upregulation of the TCA cycle could be a significant contributor to mitochondrial dysfunction in NAFLD.

Cross-talk between branched-chain amino acids and hepatic mitochondria is compromised in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

PubMed Central

Kalavalapalli, Srilaxmi; Bril, Fernando; Garrett, Timothy J.; Nautiyal, Manisha; Mathew, Justin T.; Williams, Caroline M.; Cusi, Kenneth

2015-01-01

Elevated plasma branched-chain amino acids (BCAA) in the setting of insulin resistance have been relevant in predicting type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) onset, but their role in the etiology of hepatic insulin resistance remains uncertain. We determined the link between BCAA and dysfunctional hepatic tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle, which is a central feature of hepatic insulin resistance and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Plasma metabolites under basal fasting and euglycemic hyperinsulinemic clamps (insulin stimulation) were measured in 94 human subjects with varying degrees of insulin sensitivity to identify their relationships with insulin resistance. Furthermore, the impact of elevated BCAA on hepatic TCA cycle was determined in a diet-induced mouse model of NAFLD, utilizing targeted metabolomics and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR)-based metabolic flux analysis. Insulin stimulation revealed robust relationships between human plasma BCAA and indices of insulin resistance, indicating chronic metabolic overload from BCAA. Human plasma BCAA and long-chain acylcarnitines also showed a positive correlation, suggesting modulation of mitochondrial metabolism by BCAA. Concurrently, mice with NAFLD failed to optimally induce hepatic mTORC1, plasma ketones, and hepatic long-chain acylcarnitines, following acute elevation of plasma BCAA. Furthermore, elevated BCAA failed to induce multiple fluxes through hepatic TCA cycle in mice with NAFLD. Our data suggest that BCAA are essential to mediate efficient channeling of carbon substrates for oxidation through mitochondrial TCA cycle. Impairment of BCAA-mediated upregulation of the TCA cycle could be a significant contributor to mitochondrial dysfunction in NAFLD. PMID:26058864

Performance improvement: an active life cycle product management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucchiella, Federica; Gastaldi, Massimo; Lenny Koh, S. C.

2010-03-01

The management of the supply chain has gained importance in many manufacturing firms. Operational flexibility can be considered a crucial weapon to increase competitiveness in a turbulent marketplace. It reflects the ability of a firm to properly and rapidly respond to a variable and dynamic environment. For the firm operating in a fashion sector, the management of the supply chain is even more complex because the product life cycle is shorter than that of the firm operating in a non-fashion sector. The increase of firm flexibility level can be reached through the application of the real option theory inside the firm network. In fact, real option may increase the project value by allowing managers to more efficiently direct the production. The real option application usually analysed in literature does not take into account that the demands of products are well-defined by the product life cycle. Working on a fashion sector, the life cycle pattern is even more relevant because of an expected demand that grows according to a constant rate that does not capture the demand dynamics of the underlying fashion goods. Thus, the primary research objective of this article is to develop a model useful for the management of investments in a supply chain operating in a fashion sector where the system complexity is increased by the low level of unpredictability and stability that is proper of the mood phenomenon. Moreover, unlike the traditional model, a real option framework is presented here that considers fashion product characterised by uncertain stages of the production cycle.

Pretransplant Consolidation Is Not Beneficial for Adults with ALL Undergoing Myeloablative Allogeneic Transplantation.

PubMed

Bejanyan, Nelli; Zhang, Mei-Jie; Wang, Hai-Lin; Lazaryan, Aleksandr; de Lima, Marcos; Marks, David I; Sandmaier, Brenda M; Bachanova, Veronika; Rowe, Jacob; Tallman, Martin; Kebriaei, Partow; Kharfan-Dabaja, Mohamed; Peter Gale, Robert; Lazarus, Hillard M; Ustun, Celalettin; Copelan, Edward; Ky Hamilton, Betty; Schiller, Gary; Hogan, William; Hashmi, Shahrukh; Seftel, Matthew; Kanakry, Christopher G; Olsson, Richard F; Martino, Rodrigo; Saber, Wael; Khoury, H Jean; Weisdorf, Daniel J

2018-05-01

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (alloHCT) is curative for patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) who achieve complete remission (CR1) with chemotherapy. However, the benefit of consolidation chemotherapy remains uncertain in patients undergoing alloHCT. We compared clinical outcomes of 524 adult patients with ALL in CR1 who received ≥2 (n = 109), 1 (n = 93), or 0 cycles (n = 322) of consolidation before myeloablative alloHCT from 2008 to 2012. As expected, time to alloHCT was longer with increasing cycles of consolidation. Patients receiving ≥2, 1, or 0 cycles of consolidation had an adjusted 3-year cumulative incidence of relapse of 20%, 27%, and 22%; 1-year transplant-related mortality (TRM) of 16%, 18%, and 23%; adjusted 3-year leukemia-free survival (LFS) of 54%, 48%, and 47%; and 3-year overall survival (OS) of 63%, 59%, and 54% (all P values >.40). Multivariable analysis confirmed that consolidation was not prognostic for LFS (relative risk, 1.20, 95% confidence interval, .86 to 1.67; P = .28 for no consolidation; RR, 1.18, 95% confidence interval, .79 to 1.76; P = .41 for 1 cycle versus ≥2 cycles = reference). Similarly, consolidation was not associated with OS, relapse, TRM, or graft-versus-host disease. We conclude that consolidation chemotherapy does not appear to provide added benefit in adult ALL patients with available donors who undergo myeloablative alloHCT in CR1. Copyright © 2017 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Neurocognitive deficits as a barrier to psychosocial function in schizophrenia: effects on learning, coping, & self-concept.

PubMed

Lysaker, Paul H; Buck, Kelly D

2007-07-01

Recently, research has linked deficits in neurocognition, which emerge early in schizophrenia, with psychosocial impairments. However, it is uncertain how these deficits lead to sustained dysfunction. In this review, we explore how neurocognitive deficits could disrupt function at three levels: learning, coping preference, and self-concept. We offer a model in which neurocognitive impairment may directly limit skills acquisition and the development of a rich personal narrative. We suggest that both limited skills acquisition and an impoverished narrative may subsequently feed into a habitual style of avoidant coping, leading to a cycle of sustained dysfunction. Implications for cognitive, rehabilitation, and psychotherapeutic interventions are discussed.

Estimated carbon emission from recent rapid forest loss in Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, A.; Zeng, Z.; Peng, L.; Fei, S.

2017-12-01

Driven by agricultural expansion, industrial logging, oil palm and rubber plantations, and urbanization, Southeast Asia (SEA) is one of the hotspots for tropical deforestation over recent decades. The extent of the tropical SEA deforestation rate, as well as its impacts on carbon cycle and biodiversity, however, is still highly uncertain. In relevant work using high resolution global maps of the 21st-century forest cover, we find tropical SEA lost 22 million hectares, or 9%, of forest area during 2000-2014, a much higher deforestation rate than previously reported. Here we further conduct research investigating carbon emissions from tropical deforestation in SEA with satellite data of forest cover, a global tropical forest biomass map, and Earth system models. Preliminary results suggest that deforestation in SEA causes about 2.8 Tg C emissions to the atmosphere during the same period, also higher than that of previous studies. Meanwhile, carbon emission from deforestation shows high variations across different countries, topography and between the insular and maritime SEA. Indonesia and Malaysia tops in both total carbon loss and loss from per unit land area. Our results indicates that previous studies have underestimated the carbon loss due to deforestation in SEA. And until further effective forest conservation measures can be adopted, tropical SEA will continue playing a role of atmospheric carbon source in the coming decades.

Climatological temperature senstivity of soil carbon turnover: Observations, simple scaling models, and ESMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koven, C. D.; Hugelius, G.; Lawrence, D. M.; Wieder, W. R.

2016-12-01

The projected loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere resulting from climate change is a potentially large but highly uncertain feedback to warming. The magnitude of this feedback is poorly constrained by observations and theory, and is disparately represented in Earth system models. To assess the likely long-term response of soils to climate change, spatial gradients in soil carbon turnover times can identify broad-scale and long-term controls on the rate of carbon cycling as a function of climate and other factors. Here we show that the climatological temperature control on carbon turnover in the top meter of global soils is more sensitive in cold climates than in warm ones. We present a simplified model that explains the high cold-climate sensitivity using only the physical scaling of soil freeze-thaw state across climate gradients. Critically, current Earth system models (ESMs) fail to capture this pattern, however it emerges from an ESM that explicitly resolves vertical gradients in soil climate and turnover. The weak tropical temperature sensitivity emerges from a different model that explicitly resolves mineralogical control on decomposition. These results support projections of strong future carbon-climate feedbacks from northern soils and demonstrate a method for ESMs to capture this emergent behavior.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xia, C.; Keppens, R.

Solar prominences are long-lived cool and dense plasma curtains in the hot and rarefied outer solar atmosphere or corona. The physical mechanism responsible for their formation and especially for their internal plasma circulation has been uncertain for decades. The observed ubiquitous downflows in quiescent prominences are difficult to interpret because plasma with high conductivity seems to move across horizontal magnetic field lines. Here we present three-dimensional numerical simulations of prominence formation and evolution in an elongated magnetic flux rope as a result of in situ plasma condensations fueled by continuous plasma evaporation from the solar chromosphere. The prominence is bornmore » and maintained in a fragmented, highly dynamic state with continuous reappearance of multiple blobs and thread structures that move mainly downward, dragging along mass-loaded field lines. The circulation of prominence plasma is characterized by the dynamic balance between the drainage of prominence plasma back to the chromosphere and the formation of prominence plasma via continuous condensation. Plasma evaporates from the chromosphere, condenses into the prominence in the corona, and drains back to the chromosphere, establishing a stable chromosphere–corona plasma cycle. Synthetic images of the modeled prominence with the Solar Dynamics Observatory Atmospheric Imaging Assembly closely resemble actual observations, with many dynamical threads underlying an elliptical coronal cavity.« less

Marine N2O Emissions From Nitrification and Denitrification Constrained by Modern Observations and Projected in Multimillennial Global Warming Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battaglia, G.; Joos, F.

2018-01-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) and ozone destructing agent; yet global estimates of N2O emissions are uncertain. Marine N2O stems from nitrification and denitrification processes which depend on organic matter cycling and dissolved oxygen (O2). We introduce N2O as an obligate intermediate product of denitrification and as an O2-dependent by-product from nitrification in the Bern3D ocean model. A large model ensemble is used to probabilistically constrain modern and to project marine N2O production for a low (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6) and high GHG (RCP8.5) scenario extended to A.D. 10,000. Water column N2O and surface ocean partial pressure N2O data serve as constraints in this Bayesian framework. The constrained median for modern N2O production is 4.5 (±1σ range: 3.0 to 6.1) Tg N yr-1, where 4.5% stems from denitrification. Modeled denitrification is 65.1 (40.9 to 91.6) Tg N yr-1, well within current estimates. For high GHG forcing, N2O production decreases by 7.7% over this century due to decreasing organic matter export and remineralization. Thereafter, production increases slowly by 21% due to widespread deoxygenation and high remineralization. Deoxygenation peaks in two millennia, and the global O2 inventory is reduced by a factor of 2 compared to today. Net denitrification is responsible for 7.8% of the long-term increase in N2O production. On millennial timescales, marine N2O emissions constitute a small, positive feedback to climate change. Our simulations reveal tight coupling between the marine carbon cycle, O2, N2O, and climate.

Phosphorylation of histone H3 on Ser-10 by Aurora B is essential for chromosome condensation in porcine embryos during the first mitotic division.

PubMed

Chen, Changchao; Zhang, Zixiao; Cui, Panpan; Liao, Yaya; Zhang, Yue; Yao, Lingyun; Rui, Rong; Ju, Shiqiang

2017-07-01

Phosphorylation of histone H3 on Ser-10 (H3S10ph) is involved in regulating mitotic chromosome condensation and decondensation, which plays an important regulatory role during mitotic cell cycle progression in mammalian cells. However, whether H3S10ph plays a similar role in early porcine embryos during the first mitotic division remains uncertain. In this study, the subcellular localization and possible roles of H3S10ph were evaluated in the first mitotic cell cycle progression of porcine embryos using western blot, indirect immunofluorescence and barasertib (H3S10ph upstream regulator Aurora-B inhibitor) treatments. H3S10ph exhibited a dynamic localization pattern and was localized to chromosomes from prometaphase to anaphase stages. Treatment of porcine embryos with barasertib inhibited mitotic division at the prophase stage and was associated with a defect in chromosome condensation accompanied by the reduction of H3S10ph. These results indicated that H3S10ph is involved in the first mitotic division in porcine embryos through its regulatory function in chromosome condensation, which further affects porcine embryo cell cycle progression during mitotic division.

UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSES FOR VERY HIGH ORDER MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

While there may in many cases be high potential for exposure of humans and ecosystems to chemicals released from a source, the degree to which this potential is realized is often uncertain. Conceptually, uncertainties are divided among parameters, model, and modeler during simula...

Navigation of autonomous vehicles for oil spill cleaning in dynamic and uncertain environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Xin; Ray, Asok

2014-04-01

In the context of oil spill cleaning by autonomous vehicles in dynamic and uncertain environments, this paper presents a multi-resolution algorithm that seamlessly integrates the concepts of local navigation and global navigation based on the sensory information; the objective here is to enable adaptive decision making and online replanning of vehicle paths. The proposed algorithm provides a complete coverage of the search area for clean-up of the oil spills and does not suffer from the problem of having local minima, which is commonly encountered in potential-field-based methods. The efficacy of the algorithm is tested on a high-fidelity player/stage simulator for oil spill cleaning in a harbour, where the underlying oil weathering process is modelled as 2D random-walk particle tracking. A preliminary version of this paper was presented by X. Jin and A. Ray as 'Coverage Control of Autonomous Vehicles for Oil Spill Cleaning in Dynamic and Uncertain Environments', Proceedings of the American Control Conference, Washington, DC, June 2013, pp. 2600-2605.

Using Direct Policy Search to Identify Robust Strategies in Adapting to Uncertain Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, G. G.; Keller, K.

2017-12-01

Sea-level rise poses considerable risks to coastal communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Decision makers are faced with deeply uncertain sea-level projections when designing a strategy for coastal adaptation. The traditional methods have provided tremendous insight into this decision problem, but are often silent on tradeoffs as well as the effects of tail-area events and of potential future learning. Here we reformulate a simple sea-level rise adaptation model to address these concerns. We show that Direct Policy Search yields improved solution quality, with respect to Pareto-dominance in the objectives, over the traditional approach under uncertain sea-level rise projections and storm surge. Additionally, the new formulation produces high quality solutions with less computational demands than the traditional approach. Our results illustrate the utility of multi-objective adaptive formulations for the example of coastal adaptation, the value of information provided by observations, and point to wider-ranging application in climate change adaptation decision problems.

Medical resource inventory model for emergency preparation with uncertain demand and stochastic occurrence time under considering different risk preferences at the airport

PubMed Central

Pan, Wei; Guo, Ying; Jin, Lei; Liao, ShuJie

2017-01-01

With the high accident rate of civil aviation, medical resource inventory becomes more important for emergency management at the airport. Meanwhile, medical products usually are time-sensitive and short lifetime. Moreover, we find that the optimal medical resource inventory depends on multiple factors such as different risk preferences, the material shelf life and so on. Thus, it becomes very complex in a real-life environment. According to this situation, we construct medical resource inventory decision model for emergency preparation at the airport. Our model is formulated in such a way as to simultaneously consider uncertain demand, stochastic occurrence time and different risk preferences. For solving this problem, a new programming is developed. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the proposed method. The results show that it is effective for determining the optimal medical resource inventory for emergency preparation with uncertain demand and stochastic occurrence time under considering different risk preferences at the airport. PMID:28931007

Medical resource inventory model for emergency preparation with uncertain demand and stochastic occurrence time under considering different risk preferences at the airport.

PubMed

Pan, Wei; Guo, Ying; Jin, Lei; Liao, ShuJie

2017-01-01

With the high accident rate of civil aviation, medical resource inventory becomes more important for emergency management at the airport. Meanwhile, medical products usually are time-sensitive and short lifetime. Moreover, we find that the optimal medical resource inventory depends on multiple factors such as different risk preferences, the material shelf life and so on. Thus, it becomes very complex in a real-life environment. According to this situation, we construct medical resource inventory decision model for emergency preparation at the airport. Our model is formulated in such a way as to simultaneously consider uncertain demand, stochastic occurrence time and different risk preferences. For solving this problem, a new programming is developed. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the proposed method. The results show that it is effective for determining the optimal medical resource inventory for emergency preparation with uncertain demand and stochastic occurrence time under considering different risk preferences at the airport.

Does message framing predict willingness to participate in a hypothetical HIV vaccine trial: an application of Prospect Theory.

PubMed

Evangeli, Michael; Kafaar, Zuhayr; Kagee, Ashraf; Swartz, Leslie; Bullemor-Day, Philippa

2013-01-01

It is vital that enough participants are willing to participate in clinical trials to test HIV vaccines adequately. It is, therefore, necessary to explore what affects peoples' willingness to participate (WTP) in such trials. Studies have only examined individual factors associated with WTP and not the effect of messages about trial participation on potential participants (e.g., whether losses or gains are emphasized, or whether the outcome is certain or uncertain). This study explores whether the effects of message framing on WTP in a hypothetical HIV vaccine trial are consistent with Prospect Theory. This theory suggests that people are fundamentally risk averse and that (1) under conditions of low risk and high certainty, gain-framed messages will be influential (2) under conditions of high risk and low certainty, loss-framed messages will be influential. This cross-sectional study recruited 283 HIV-negative students from a South African university who were given a questionnaire that contained matched certain gain-framed, certain loss-framed, uncertain gain-framed, and uncertain loss-framed statements based on common barriers and facilitators of WTP. Participants were asked to rate how likely each statement was to result in their participation in a hypothetical preventative HIV vaccine trial. Consistent with Prospect Theory predictions, for certain outcomes, gain-framed messages were more likely to result in WTP than loss-framed messages. Inconsistent with predictions, loss-framed message were not more likely to be related to WTP for uncertain outcomes than gain-framed messages. Older students were less likely to express their WTP across the different message frames. Recruitment for HIV vaccine trials should pay attention to how messages about the trial are presented to potential participants.

Learning accurate very fast decision trees from uncertain data streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Chunquan; Zhang, Yang; Shi, Peng; Hu, Zhengguo

2015-12-01

Most existing works on data stream classification assume the streaming data is precise and definite. Such assumption, however, does not always hold in practice, since data uncertainty is ubiquitous in data stream applications due to imprecise measurement, missing values, privacy protection, etc. The goal of this paper is to learn accurate decision tree models from uncertain data streams for classification analysis. On the basis of very fast decision tree (VFDT) algorithms, we proposed an algorithm for constructing an uncertain VFDT tree with classifiers at tree leaves (uVFDTc). The uVFDTc algorithm can exploit uncertain information effectively and efficiently in both the learning and the classification phases. In the learning phase, it uses Hoeffding bound theory to learn from uncertain data streams and yield fast and reasonable decision trees. In the classification phase, at tree leaves it uses uncertain naive Bayes (UNB) classifiers to improve the classification performance. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-life datasets demonstrate the strong ability of uVFDTc to classify uncertain data streams. The use of UNB at tree leaves has improved the performance of uVFDTc, especially the any-time property, the benefit of exploiting uncertain information, and the robustness against uncertainty.

Influence of rotational speed on the cyclic fatigue of rotary nickel-titanium endodontic instruments.

PubMed

Lopes, Hélio P; Ferreira, Alessandra A P; Elias, Carlos N; Moreira, Edson J L; de Oliveira, Júlio C Machado; Siqueira, José F

2009-07-01

During the preparation of curved canals, rotary nickel-titanium (NiTi) instruments are subjected to cyclic fatigue, which can lead to instrument fracture. Although several factors may influence the cyclic fatigue resistance of instruments, the role of the rotational speed remains uncertain. This study was intended to evaluate the effects of rotational speed on the number of cycles to fracture of rotary NiTi instruments. ProTaper Universal instruments F3 and F4 (Maillefer SA, Ballaigues, Switzerland) were used in an artificial curved canal under rotational speeds of 300 rpm or 600 rpm. The artificial canal was made of stainless steel, with an inner diameter of 1.5 mm, total length of 20 mm, and arc at the end with a curvature radius of 6 mm. The arc length was 9.4 mm and 10.6 mm on the straight part. The number of cycles required to fracture was recorded. Fractured surfaces and the helical shafts of the fractured instruments were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy. The results showed approximately a 30% reduction in the observed number of cycles to fracture as rotational speed was increased from 300 to 600 RPM (p < 0.05). The morphology of the fractured surface was always of ductile type, and no plastic deformation was observed on the helical shaft of fractured instruments. The present findings for both F3 and F4 ProTaper instruments revealed that the increase in rotational speed significantly reduced the number of cycles to fracture.

Uncertainty analysis of integrated gasification combined cycle systems based on Frame 7H versus 7F gas turbines.

PubMed

Zhu, Yunhua; Frey, H Christopher

2006-12-01

Integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) technology is a promising alternative for clean generation of power and coproduction of chemicals from coal and other feedstocks. Advanced concepts for IGCC systems that incorporate state-of-the-art gas turbine systems, however, are not commercially demonstrated. Therefore, there is uncertainty regarding the future commercial-scale performance, emissions, and cost of such technologies. The Frame 7F gas turbine represents current state-of-practice, whereas the Frame 7H is the most recently introduced advanced commercial gas turbine. The objective of this study was to evaluate the risks and potential payoffs of IGCC technology based on different gas turbine combined cycle designs. Models of entrained-flow gasifier-based IGCC systems with Frame 7F (IGCC-7F) and 7H gas turbine combined cycles (IGCC-7H) were developed in ASPEN Plus. An uncertainty analysis was conducted. Gasifier carbon conversion and project cost uncertainty are identified as the most important uncertain inputs with respect to system performance and cost. The uncertainties in the difference of the efficiencies and costs for the two systems are characterized. Despite uncertainty, the IGCC-7H system is robustly preferred to the IGCC-7F system. Advances in gas turbine design will improve the performance, emissions, and cost of IGCC systems. The implications of this study for decision-making regarding technology selection, research planning, and plant operation are discussed.

Radiocarbon Evidence That Millennial and Fast-Cycling Soil Carbon are Equally Sensitive to Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughn, L. S.; Torn, M. S.; Porras, R. C.

2017-12-01

Within the century, the Arctic is expected to shift from a sink to a source of atmospheric CO2 due to climate-induced increases in soil carbon mineralization. The magnitude of this effect remains uncertain, due in large part to unknown temperature sensitivities of organic matter decomposition. In particular, the distribution of temperature sensitivities across soil carbon pools remains unknown. New experimental approaches are needed, because studies that fit multi-pool models to CO2 flux measurements may be sensitive to model assumptions, statistical effects, and non-steady-state changes in substrate availability or microbial activity. In this study, we developed a new methodology using natural abundance radiocarbon to evaluate temperature sensitivities across soil carbon pools. In two incubation experiments with soils from Barrow, AK, we (1) evaluated soil carbon age and decomposability, (2) disentangled the effects of temperature and substrate depletion on carbon mineralization, and (3) compared the temperature sensitivities of fast- and slow-cycling soil carbon pools. From a long-term incubation, both respired CO2 and the remaining soil organic matter were highly depleted in radiocarbon. At 20 cm depth, median Δ14C values were -167‰ in respired CO2 and -377‰ in soil organic matter, corresponding to turnover times of 1800 and 4800 years, respectively. Such negative Δ14C values indicate both storage and decomposition of old, stabilized carbon, while radiocarbon differences between the mineralized and non-mineralized fractions suggest that decomposability varies along a turnover time gradient. Applying a new analytical method combining CO2 flux and Δ14C, we found that fast- and slow-cycling carbon pools were equally sensitive to temperature, with a Q10 of 2 irrespective of turnover time. We conclude that in these Arctic soils, ancient soil carbon is vulnerable to warming under thawed, aerobic conditions. In contrast to many previous studies, we found no difference in temperature sensitivity of decomposition between fast- and slow-cycling pools. These findings suggest that in these soils, carbon stabilization mechanisms other than chemical recalcitrance mediate temperature sensitivities, and even old SOC will be readily decomposable as climate warms.

Cluster synchronization transmission of different external signals in discrete uncertain network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chengren; Lü, Ling; Chen, Liansong; Hong, Yixuan; Zhou, Shuang; Yang, Yiming

2018-07-01

We research cluster synchronization transmissions of different external signals in discrete uncertain network. Based on the Lyapunov theorem, the network controller and the identification law of uncertain adjustment parameter are designed, and they are efficiently used to achieve the cluster synchronization and the identification of uncertain adjustment parameter. In our technical scheme, the network nodes in each cluster and the transmitted external signal can be different, and they allow the presence of uncertain parameters in the network. Especially, we are free to choose the clustering topologies, the cluster number and the node number in each cluster.

Nowcasting Earthquakes and Tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.

2017-12-01

The term "nowcasting" refers to the estimation of the current uncertain state of a dynamical system, whereas "forecasting" is a calculation of probabilities of future state(s). Nowcasting is a term that originated in economics and finance, referring to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or market indicators such as GDP at the current time by indirect means. We have applied this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of a system of faults, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EA000185/full). Advantages of our nowcasting method over forecasting models include: 1) Nowcasting is simply data analysis and does not involve a model having parameters that must be fit to data; 2) We use only earthquake catalog data which generally has known errors and characteristics; and 3) We use area-based analysis rather than fault-based analysis, meaning that the methods work equally well on land and in subduction zones. To use the nowcast method to estimate how far the fault system has progressed through the "cycle" of large recurring earthquakes, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. We select a "small" region in which the nowcast is to be made, and compute the statistics of a much larger region around the small region. The statistics of the large region are then applied to the small region. For an application, we can define a small region around major global cities, for example a "small" circle of radius 150 km and a depth of 100 km, as well as a "large" earthquake magnitude, for example M6.0. The region of influence of such earthquakes is roughly 150 km radius x 100 km depth, which is the reason these values were selected. We can then compute and rank the seismic risk of the world's major cities in terms of their relative seismic risk. As another application, we can define large rectangular regions of subduction zones and shallow depths to compute the progress of the fault zone towards the next major tsunami-genic earthquake. We can then rank the relative progress of the major subduction zones of the world through their cycles of large earthquakes using this method to determine which zones are most at risk.

Spring and summer contrast in new particle formation over nine forest areas in North America

EPA Science Inventory

Recent laboratory chamber studies indicate a significant role for highly oxidized low volatility organics in new particle formation (NPF), but the actual role of these highly oxidized low volatility organics in atmospheric NPF remains uncertain. Here, particle size distributions ...

Distributed control systems with incomplete and uncertain information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Jingpeng

Scientific and engineering advances in wireless communication, sensors, propulsion, and other areas are rapidly making it possible to develop unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) with sophisticated capabilities. UAVs have come to the forefront as tools for airborne reconnaissance to search for, detect, and destroy enemy targets in relatively complex environments. They potentially reduce risk to human life, are cost effective, and are superior to manned aircraft for certain types of missions. It is desirable for UAVs to have a high level of intelligent autonomy to carry out mission tasks with little external supervision and control. This raises important issues involving tradeoffs between centralized control and the associated potential to optimize mission plans, and decentralized control with great robustness and the potential to adapt to changing conditions. UAV capabilities have been extended several ways through armament (e.g., Hellfire missiles on Predator UAVs), increased endurance and altitude (e.g., Global Hawk), and greater autonomy. Some known barriers to full-scale implementation of UAVs are increased communication and control requirements as well as increased platform and system complexity. One of the key problems is how UAV systems can handle incomplete and uncertain information in dynamic environments. Especially when the system is composed of heterogeneous and distributed UAVs, the overall system complexity is increased under such conditions. Presented through the use of published papers, this dissertation lays the groundwork for the study of methodologies for handling incomplete and uncertain information for distributed control systems. An agent-based simulation framework is built to investigate mathematical approaches (optimization) and emergent intelligence approaches. The first paper provides a mathematical approach for systems of UAVs to handle incomplete and uncertain information. The second paper describes an emergent intelligence approach for UAVs, again in handling incomplete and uncertain information. The third paper combines mathematical and emergent intelligence approaches.

Secure estimation, control and optimization of uncertain cyber-physical systems with applications to power networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taha, Ahmad Fayez

Transportation networks, wearable devices, energy systems, and the book you are reading now are all ubiquitous cyber-physical systems (CPS). These inherently uncertain systems combine physical phenomena with communication, data processing, control and optimization. Many CPSs are controlled and monitored by real-time control systems that use communication networks to transmit and receive data from systems modeled by physical processes. Existing studies have addressed a breadth of challenges related to the design of CPSs. However, there is a lack of studies on uncertain CPSs subject to dynamic unknown inputs and cyber-attacks---an artifact of the insertion of communication networks and the growing complexity of CPSs. The objective of this dissertation is to create secure, computational foundations for uncertain CPSs by establishing a framework to control, estimate and optimize the operation of these systems. With major emphasis on power networks, the dissertation deals with the design of secure computational methods for uncertain CPSs, focusing on three crucial issues---(1) cyber-security and risk-mitigation, (2) network-induced time-delays and perturbations and (3) the encompassed extreme time-scales. The dissertation consists of four parts. In the first part, we investigate dynamic state estimation (DSE) methods and rigorously examine the strengths and weaknesses of the proposed routines under dynamic attack-vectors and unknown inputs. In the second part, and utilizing high-frequency measurements in smart grids and the developed DSE methods in the first part, we present a risk mitigation strategy that minimizes the encountered threat levels, while ensuring the continual observability of the system through available, safe measurements. The developed methods in the first two parts rely on the assumption that the uncertain CPS is not experiencing time-delays, an assumption that might fail under certain conditions. To overcome this challenge, networked unknown input observers---observers/estimators for uncertain CPSs---are designed such that the effect of time-delays and cyber-induced perturbations are minimized, enabling secure DSE and risk mitigation in the first two parts. The final part deals with the extreme time-scales encompassed in CPSs, generally, and smart grids, specifically. Operational decisions for long time-scales can adversely affect the security of CPSs for faster time-scales. We present a model that jointly describes steady-state operation and transient stability by combining convex optimal power flow with semidefinite programming formulations of an optimal control problem. This approach can be jointly utilized with the aforementioned parts of the dissertation work, considering time-delays and DSE. The research contributions of this dissertation furnish CPS stakeholders with insights on the design and operation of uncertain CPSs, whilst guaranteeing the system's real-time safety. Finally, although many of the results of this dissertation are tailored to power systems, the results are general enough to be applied for a variety of uncertain CPSs.

Climate science: Clouds unfazed by haze

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Bjorn

2017-06-01

The extent to which aerosols affect climate is highly uncertain. Observations of clouds interacting with aerosols from a volcanic eruption suggest that the effect is much smaller than was once feared. See Article p.485

Global tracking for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems with unknown sign-switching control direction by output feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roux Oliveira, Tiago; Jacoud Peixoto, Alessandro; Hsu, Liu

2015-09-01

This paper addresses the design of a sliding mode controller for a class of high-order uncertain nonlinear plants with unmatched state-dependent nonlinearities and unknown sign of the high frequency gain, i.e., the control direction is assumed unknown. Differently from most previous studies, the control direction is allowed to switch its sign. We show that it is possible to obtain global exact tracking using only output-feedback by coupling a relay periodic switching function with a norm state observer. One significant advantage of the new scheme is its robustness and improved transient response under arbitrary changes of the control direction which have been theoretically demonstrated for jump variations and successfully tested by simulations. The proposed controller is also evaluated with a DC motor control experiment.

Lessons learned using different mouse models during space radiation-induced lung tumorigenesis experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jian; Zhang, Xiangming; Wang, Ping; Wang, Xiang; Farris, Alton B.; Wang, Ya

2016-06-01

Unlike terrestrial ionizing radiation, space radiation, especially galactic cosmic rays (GCR), contains high energy charged (HZE) particles with high linear energy transfer (LET). Due to a lack of epidemiologic data for high-LET radiation exposure, it is highly uncertain how high the carcinogenesis risk is for astronauts following exposure to space radiation during space missions. Therefore, using mouse models is necessary to evaluate the risk of space radiation-induced tumorigenesis; however, which mouse model is better for these studies remains uncertain. Since lung tumorigenesis is the leading cause of cancer death among both men and women, and low-LET radiation exposure increases human lung carcinogenesis, evaluating space radiation-induced lung tumorigenesis is critical to enable safe Mars missions. Here, by comparing lung tumorigenesis obtained from different mouse strains, as well as miR-21 in lung tissue/tumors and serum, we believe that wild type mice with a low spontaneous tumorigenesis background are ideal for evaluating the risk of space radiation-induced lung tumorigenesis, and circulating miR-21 from such mice model might be used as a biomarker for predicting the risk.

The large-scale freshwater cycle of the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serreze, Mark C.; Barrett, Andrew P.; Slater, Andrew G.; Woodgate, Rebecca A.; Aagaard, Knut; Lammers, Richard B.; Steele, Michael; Moritz, Richard; Meredith, Michael; Lee, Craig M.

2006-11-01

This paper synthesizes our understanding of the Arctic's large-scale freshwater cycle. It combines terrestrial and oceanic observations with insights gained from the ERA-40 reanalysis and land surface and ice-ocean models. Annual mean freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean is dominated by river discharge (38%), inflow through Bering Strait (30%), and net precipitation (24%). Total freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean to the North Atlantic is dominated by transports through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (35%) and via Fram Strait as liquid (26%) and sea ice (25%). All terms are computed relative to a reference salinity of 34.8. Compared to earlier estimates, our budget features larger import of freshwater through Bering Strait and larger liquid phase export through Fram Strait. While there is no reason to expect a steady state, error analysis indicates that the difference between annual mean oceanic inflows and outflows (˜8% of the total inflow) is indistinguishable from zero. Freshwater in the Arctic Ocean has a mean residence time of about a decade. This is understood in that annual freshwater input, while large (˜8500 km3), is an order of magnitude smaller than oceanic freshwater storage of ˜84,000 km3. Freshwater in the atmosphere, as water vapor, has a residence time of about a week. Seasonality in Arctic Ocean freshwater storage is nevertheless highly uncertain, reflecting both sparse hydrographic data and insufficient information on sea ice volume. Uncertainties mask seasonal storage changes forced by freshwater fluxes. Of flux terms with sufficient data for analysis, Fram Strait ice outflow shows the largest interannual variability.

Differential cellular localization of Epstein-Barr virus and human cytomegalovirus in the colonic mucosa of patients with active or quiescent inflammatory bowel disease.

PubMed

Ciccocioppo, Rachele; Racca, Francesca; Scudeller, Luigia; Piralla, Antonio; Formagnana, Pietro; Pozzi, Lodovica; Betti, Elena; Vanoli, Alessandro; Riboni, Roberta; Kruzliak, Peter; Baldanti, Fausto; Corazza, Gino Roberto

2016-02-01

The role of human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) in the exacerbation of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is still uncertain. We prospectively investigated the presence of EBV and HCMV infection in both epithelial and immune cells of colonic mucosa of IBD patients, both refractory and responders to standard therapies, in comparison with patients suffering from irritable bowel syndrome who were considered as controls, by using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction, immunohistochemistry and in situ hybridization, in an attempt to assess viral localization, DNA load, life cycle phase and possible correlation with disease activity indexes. We obtained clear evidence of the presence of high DNA loads of both viruses in either enterocytes or immune cells of refractory IBD patients, whereas we observed low levels in the responder group and an absence of detectable copies in all cell populations of controls. Remarkably, the values of EBV and HCMV DNA in inflamed mucosa were invariably higher than in non-inflamed areas in both IBD groups, and the EBV DNA loads in the cell populations of diseased mucosa of refractory IBD patients positively correlated with the severity of mucosal damage and clinical indexes of activity. Moreover, EBV infection resulted the most prevalent either alone or in combination with HCMV, while immunohistochemistry and in situ hybridization did not allow us to distinguish between the different phases of viral life cycle. Finally, as regards treatment, these novel findings could pave the way for the use of new antiviral molecules in the treatment of this condition.

Grand challenges in understanding the interplay of climate and land changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liu, Shuguang; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Boysen, Lena R.; Ford, James D.; Fox, Andrew; Gallo, Kevin; Hatfield, Jerry L.; Henebry, Geoffrey M.; Huntington, Thomas G.; Liu, Zhihua; Loveland, Thomas R.; Norby, Richard J.; Sohl, Terry L.; Steiner, Allison L.; Yuan, Wenping; Zhang, Zhao; Zhao, Shuqing

2017-01-01

Half of Earth’s land surface has been altered by human activities, creating various consequences on the climate and weather systems at local to global scales, which in turn affect a myriad of land surface processes and the adaptation behaviors. This study reviews the status and major knowledge gaps in the interactions of land and atmospheric changes and present 11 grand challenge areas for the scientific research and adaptation community in the coming decade. These land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC)-related areas include 1) impacts on weather and climate, 2) carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, 3) biospheric emissions, 4) the water cycle, 5) agriculture, 6) urbanization, 7) acclimation of biogeochemical processes to climate change, 8) plant migration, 9) land-use projections, 10) model and data uncertainties, and, finally, 11) adaptation strategies. Numerous studies have demonstrated the effects of LCLUC on local to global climate and weather systems, but these putative effects vary greatly in magnitude and even sign across space, time, and scale and thus remain highly uncertain. At the same time, many challenges exist toward improved understanding of the consequences of atmospheric and climate change on land process dynamics and services. Future effort must improve the understanding of the scale-dependent, multifaceted perturbations and feedbacks between land and climate changes in both reality and models. To this end, one critical cross-disciplinary need is to systematically quantify and better understand measurement and model uncertainties. Finally, LCLUC mitigation and adaptation assessments must be strengthened to identify implementation barriers, evaluate and prioritize opportunities, and examine how decision-making processes work in specific contexts.

Parametric Sensitivity Analysis of Precipitation at Global and Local Scales in the Community Atmosphere Model CAM5

DOE PAGES

Qian, Yun; Yan, Huiping; Hou, Zhangshuan; ...

2015-04-10

We investigate the sensitivity of precipitation characteristics (mean, extreme and diurnal cycle) to a set of uncertain parameters that influence the qualitative and quantitative behavior of the cloud and aerosol processes in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5). We adopt both the Latin hypercube and quasi-Monte Carlo sampling approaches to effectively explore the high-dimensional parameter space and then conduct two large sets of simulations. One set consists of 1100 simulations (cloud ensemble) perturbing 22 parameters related to cloud physics and convection, and the other set consists of 256 simulations (aerosol ensemble) focusing on 16 parameters related to aerosols and cloud microphysics.more » Results show that for the 22 parameters perturbed in the cloud ensemble, the six having the greatest influences on the global mean precipitation are identified, three of which (related to the deep convection scheme) are the primary contributors to the total variance of the phase and amplitude of the precipitation diurnal cycle over land. The extreme precipitation characteristics are sensitive to a fewer number of parameters. The precipitation does not always respond monotonically to parameter change. The influence of individual parameters does not depend on the sampling approaches or concomitant parameters selected. Generally the GLM is able to explain more of the parametric sensitivity of global precipitation than local or regional features. The total explained variance for precipitation is primarily due to contributions from the individual parameters (75-90% in total). The total variance shows a significant seasonal variability in the mid-latitude continental regions, but very small in tropical continental regions.« less

Periodic Application of Stochastic Cost Optimization Methodology to Achieve Remediation Objectives with Minimized Life Cycle Cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, U.; Parker, J.

2016-12-01

Many dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) contaminated sites in the U.S. are reported as "remediation in progress" (RIP). However, the cost to complete (CTC) remediation at these sites is highly uncertain and in many cases, the current remediation plan may need to be modified or replaced to achieve remediation objectives. This study evaluates the effectiveness of iterative stochastic cost optimization that incorporates new field data for periodic parameter recalibration to incrementally reduce prediction uncertainty and implement remediation design modifications as needed to minimize the life cycle cost (i.e., CTC). This systematic approach, using the Stochastic Cost Optimization Toolkit (SCOToolkit), enables early identification and correction of problems to stay on track for completion while minimizing the expected (i.e., probability-weighted average) CTC. This study considers a hypothetical site involving multiple DNAPL sources in an unconfined aquifer using thermal treatment for source reduction and electron donor injection for dissolved plume control. The initial design is based on stochastic optimization using model parameters and their joint uncertainty based on calibration to site characterization data. The model is periodically recalibrated using new monitoring data and performance data for the operating remediation systems. Projected future performance using the current remediation plan is assessed and reoptimization of operational variables for the current system or consideration of alternative designs are considered depending on the assessment results. We compare remediation duration and cost for the stepwise re-optimization approach with single stage optimization as well as with a non-optimized design based on typical engineering practice.

Reducing equifinality using isotopes in a process-based stream nitrogen model highlights the flux of algal nitrogen from agricultural streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, William I.; Fox, James F.; Pollock, Erik

2017-08-01

The fate of bioavailable nitrogen species transported through agricultural landscapes remains highly uncertain given complexities of measuring fluxes impacting the fluvial N cycle. We present and test a new numerical model named Technology for Removable Annual Nitrogen in Streams For Ecosystem Restoration (TRANSFER), which aims to reduce model uncertainty due to erroneous parameterization, i.e., equifinality, in stream nitrogen cycle assessment and quantify the significance of transient and permanent removal pathways. TRANSFER couples nitrogen elemental and stable isotope mass-balance equations with existing hydrologic, hydraulic, sediment transport, algal biomass, and sediment organic matter mass-balance subroutines and a robust GLUE-like uncertainty analysis. We test the model in an agriculturally impacted, third-order stream reach located in the Bluegrass Region of Central Kentucky. Results of the multiobjective model evaluation for the model application highlight the ability of sediment nitrogen fingerprints including elemental concentrations and stable N isotope signatures to reduce equifinality of the stream N model. Advancements in the numerical simulations allow for illumination of the significance of algal sloughing fluxes for the first time in relation to denitrification. Broadly, model estimates suggest that denitrification is slightly greater than algal N sloughing (10.7% and 6.3% of dissolved N load on average), highlighting the potential for overestimation of denitrification by 37%. We highlight the significance of the transient N pool given the potential for the N store to be regenerated to the water column in downstream reaches, leading to harmful and nuisance algal bloom development.

EXor OUTBURSTS FROM DISK AMPLIFICATION OF STELLAR MAGNETIC CYCLES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Armitage, Philip J., E-mail: pja@jilau1.colorado.edu

EXor outbursts—moderate-amplitude disk accretion events observed in Class I and Class II protostellar sources—have timescales and amplitudes that are consistent with the viscous accumulation and release of gas in the inner disk near the dead zone boundary. We suggest that outbursts are indirectly triggered by stellar dynamo cycles, via poloidal magnetic flux that diffuses radially outward through the disk. Interior to the dead zone the strength of the net field modulates the efficiency of angular momentum transport by the magnetorotational instability. In the dead zone changes in the polarity of the net field may lead to stronger outbursts because ofmore » the dominant role of the Hall effect in this region of the disk. At the level of simple estimates we show that changes to kG-strength stellar fields could stimulate disk outbursts on 0.1 au scales, though this optimistic conclusion depends upon the uncertain efficiency of net flux transport through the inner disk. The model predicts a close association between observational tracers of stellar magnetic activity and EXor events.« less

Effect of increasing CO2 on the terrestrial carbon cycle

PubMed Central

Schimel, David; Fisher, Joshua B.

2015-01-01

Feedbacks from the terrestrial carbon cycle significantly affect future climate change. The CO2 concentration dependence of global terrestrial carbon storage is one of the largest and most uncertain feedbacks. Theory predicts the CO2 effect should have a tropical maximum, but a large terrestrial sink has been contradicted by analyses of atmospheric CO2 that do not show large tropical uptake. Our results, however, show significant tropical uptake and, combining tropical and extratropical fluxes, suggest that up to 60% of the present-day terrestrial sink is caused by increasing atmospheric CO2. This conclusion is consistent with a validated subset of atmospheric analyses, but uncertainty remains. Improved model diagnostics and new space-based observations can reduce the uncertainty of tropical and temperate zone carbon flux estimates. This analysis supports a significant feedback to future atmospheric CO2 concentrations from carbon uptake in terrestrial ecosystems caused by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This feedback will have substantial tropical contributions, but the magnitude of future carbon uptake by tropical forests also depends on how they respond to climate change and requires their protection from deforestation. PMID:25548156

Hydrological changes in the tropics: an Holocene perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braconnot, Pascale

2015-04-01

Past climates offer a large set of natural experiences that can be used to better understand the relative role of different climate feedbacks arising from changes in the Earth's global energetics, Earth's hydrological cycle or from the coupling between climate and biogeochemical cycles. In addition, the numerous climate reconstructions from different and independent ice, marine and terrestrial climate archives allow to test how climate models reproduce past changes and to assess their credibility when used for future climate projections. The presentation will review some of the mechanisms affecting the long term trend in the location of the intertropical convergence zone and the Afro-Asian monsoon. Using simulations of the PMIP project, as well as sensitivity experiments with the IPSL model, I'll discuss the role of monsoon changes in the global Earth's energetics and the different feedbacks from ocean and land-surface. The presentation will contrast the conditions in the Early, the mid and late Holocene and show how robust features of monsoon changes can be used to better assess future changes in regions where model results are uncertain, such as West Africa.

Lysinuric protein intolerance (LPI): a multi organ disease by far more complex than a classic urea cycle disorder.

PubMed

Ogier de Baulny, Hélène; Schiff, Manuel; Dionisi-Vici, Carlo

2012-05-01

Lysinuric protein intolerance (LPI) is an inherited defect of cationic amino acid (lysine, arginine and ornithine) transport at the basolateral membrane of intestinal and renal tubular cells caused by mutations in SLC7A7 encoding the y(+)LAT1 protein. LPI has long been considered a relatively benign urea cycle disease, when appropriately treated with low-protein diet and l-citrulline supplementation. However, the severe clinical course of this disorder suggests that LPI should be regarded as a severe multisystem disease with uncertain outcome. Specifically, immune dysfunction potentially attributable to nitric oxide (NO) overproduction secondary to arginine intracellular trapping (due to defective efflux from the cell) might be a crucial pathophysiological route explaining many of LPI complications. The latter comprise severe lung disease with pulmonary alveolar proteinosis, renal disease, hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis with subsequent activation of macrophages, various auto-immune disorders and an incompletely characterized immune deficiency. These results have several therapeutic implications, among which lowering the l-citrulline dosage may be crucial, as excessive citrulline may worsen intracellular arginine accumulation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Soil Carbon Cycling - More than Changes in Soil Organic Carbon Stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenz, K.

2015-12-01

Discussions about soil carbon (C) sequestration generally focus on changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. Global SOC mass in the top 1 m was estimated at about 1325 Pg C, and at about 3000 Pg C when deeper soil layers were included. However, both inorganically and organically bound carbon forms are found in soil but estimates on global soil inorganic carbon (SIC) mass are even more uncertain than those for SOC. Globally, about 947 Pg SIC may be stored in the top 1 m, and especially in arid and semi-arid regions SIC stocks can be many times great than SOC stocks. Both SIC and SOC stocks are vulnerable to management practices, and stocks may be enhanced, for example, by optimizing net primary production (NPP) by fertilization and irrigation (especially optimizing belowground NPP for enhancing SOC stocks), adding organic matter (including black C for enhancing SOC stocks), and reducing soil disturbance. Thus, studies on soil C stocks, fluxes, and vulnerability must look at both SIC and SOC stocks in soil profiles to address large scale soil C cycling.

Determining the Supply of Material Resources for High-Rise Construction: Scenario Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minnullina, Anna; Vasiliev, Vladimir

2018-03-01

This article presents a multi-criteria approach to determining the supply of material resources for high-rise construction under certain and uncertain conditions, which enables integrating a number of existing models into a fairly compact generalised economic and mathematical model developed for two extreme scenarios.

Characterizing traffic under uncertain disruptions : an experimental approach.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-03-01

The objective of the research is to study long-term traffic patterns under uncertain disruptions using : data collected from human subjects who simultaneously make route choices in controlled PC-based : laboratory experiments. Uncertain disruptions t...

Impact of Holocene terrestrial vegetation succession on the biogeochemical structure and function of an Arctic lake, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langdon, P. G.; Whiteford, E.; Hopla, E.; van Hardenbroek, M.; Turner, S.; Edwards, M. E.; Jones, V.; McGowan, S.; Wiik, E.; Anderson, N. J.

2016-12-01

Vegetation changes are occurring in the Arctic as warming progresses, a process often referred to as "greening". The northward expansion of woody shrubs influence nutrient cycling in soils, including carbon (C) cycling, but the extent to which they will change the storage or release of carbon at a landscape scale is uncertain. The role that lakes play in this system is not fully understood, but it is known that many lakes in the tundra and northern forests are today releasing carbon dioxide (and methane) into the atmosphere in significant amounts, and a proportion of this carbon comes into the lake from the vegetation and soils of the surrounding landscape. Furthermore, the number of lakes contributing to this gas release has been hitherto underestimated, and it is thus likely that lakes play a far greater role in terms of total gas emissions. In order to assess the relationships between vegetation succession and lake biogeochemical cycling we have studied palaeoenvironmental change in a suite of lakes across the Arctic in a NERC funded project LAC (Lakes and the Arctic Carbon Cycle). This abstract is focused on a full Holocene sequence from an Alaskan Lake (Woody Bottom Pond), with palaeo records of major elements (scanning XRF), diatoms, pollen, stable isotopes and pigments. The small size of the catchment likely leads to strong coupling between catchment processes such as vegetation succession and fire and aquatic biogeochemical responses. For example the arrival of alder is followed by marked shift in diatom assemblage and pigments associated with changes in N cycling. This approach allows us to assess how catchment change affects aquatic ecosystems and the resultant balance between heterotrophy and autotrophy in arctic lakes over long timescales.

Investigating the Effect of Livestock Grazing and Associated Plant Community Shifts on Carbon and Nutrient Cycling in Alberta, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewins, D. B.; Chuan, S.; Stolnikova, E.; Bork, E. W.; Carlyle, C. N.; Chang, S. X.

2015-12-01

Grassland ecosystems are ubiquitous across the globe covering an estimated 40 % of Earth's terrestrial landmass. These ecosystems are widely valued for providing forage for domestic livestock and a suite of important ecosystem goods and services including carbon (C) storage. Despite storing more than 30 % of soil C globally, the effect of both livestock grazing and the associated change in plant community structure in response to grazing on C and nutrient cycling remains uncertain. To gain a quantitative understanding of the direct and indirect effects of livestock grazing on C and nutrient cycling, we established study sites at 15 existing site localities with paired long-term grazing (ca. 30 y) and non-grazed treatments (totaling 30 unique plant communities). Our sites were distributed widely across Alberta in three distinct grassland bioclimatic zones allowing us to make comparisons across the broad range of climate variability typical of western Canadian grasslands. In each plant community we decomposed 5 common plant species that are known to increase or decrease in response to grazing pressure, a unique plant community sample, and a cellulose paper control. We measured mass loss, initial lignin, C and N concentrations at 0, 1, 3, 6 and 12 months of field incubation. In addition we assayed hydrolytic and oxidative extracellular enzymes associated with for C (n= 5 hydrolytic; phenoloxidase and peroxidase) and nutrients (i.e. N and P; n=1 ea.) cycling from each litter sample at each collection. Our results suggest that by changing the plant community structure, grazing can affect rates of decomposition and associated biogeochemical cycling by changing plant species and associated litter inputs. Moreover, measures of microbial function are controlled by site-specific conditions (e.g. temperature and precipitation), litter chemistry over the course of our incubation.

Rethinking the Role of Salps in the Ocean.

PubMed

Henschke, Natasha; Everett, Jason D; Richardson, Anthony J; Suthers, Iain M

2016-09-01

Salps are barrel-shaped, gelatinous zooplankton that regularly form large swarms. They have historically been ignored because they are difficult to sample and their gelatinous body structure suggests that they are unimportant in food webs and biogeochemical cycles. We collate evidence to overturn several common misconceptions about salps that have hampered research. We show that salps play a major role in carbon sequestration and are key components of marine food webs as a food source for at least 202 species including fish, turtles, and crustaceans. The future of salps in the Anthropocene is uncertain, and therefore further research into areas such as basic rate processes and their biogeochemical impact through new and innovative laboratory and field methods is needed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A holistic strategy for adaptive land management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Duniway, Michael C.; Pyke, David A.; Bestelmeyer, Brandon T.; Wills, Skye A.; Brown, Joel R.; Karl, Jason W.; Havstad, Kris M.

2012-01-01

Adaptive management is widely applied to natural resources management (Holling 1973; Walters and Holling 1990). Adaptive management can be generally defined as an iterative decision-making process that incorporates formulation of management objectives, actions designed to address these objectives, monitoring of results, and repeated adaptation of management until desired results are achieved (Brown and MacLeod 1996; Savory and Butterfield 1999). However, adaptive management is often criticized because very few projects ever complete more than one cycle, resulting in little adaptation and little knowledge gain (Lee 1999; Walters 2007). One significant criticism is that adaptive management is often used as a justification for undertaking actions with uncertain outcomes or as a surrogate for the development of specific, measurable indicators and monitoring programs (Lee 1999; Ruhl 2007).

A novel medical information management and decision model for uncertain demand optimization.

PubMed

Bi, Ya

2015-01-01

Accurately planning the procurement volume is an effective measure for controlling the medicine inventory cost. Due to uncertain demand it is difficult to make accurate decision on procurement volume. As to the biomedicine sensitive to time and season demand, the uncertain demand fitted by the fuzzy mathematics method is obviously better than general random distribution functions. To establish a novel medical information management and decision model for uncertain demand optimization. A novel optimal management and decision model under uncertain demand has been presented based on fuzzy mathematics and a new comprehensive improved particle swarm algorithm. The optimal management and decision model can effectively reduce the medicine inventory cost. The proposed improved particle swarm optimization is a simple and effective algorithm to improve the Fuzzy interference and hence effectively reduce the calculation complexity of the optimal management and decision model. Therefore the new model can be used for accurate decision on procurement volume under uncertain demand.

Methane emission from high-latitude (>50N) lakes: Annual cycle of climatological emissions using satellite-derived lake-ice phenology and freeze-thaw dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, E.; Romanski, J.; Du, J.; Watts, J. D.

2017-12-01

Lakes are increasingly recognized as potentially important contributors to global methane emissions despite occupying only a few percent of Earth's ice-free land surface. More than 40% of the global lake area lies in regions of amplified warming north of 50˚N. As with wetlands, lake emissions are sensitive to interannual fluctuations in, e.g., temperature and duration of thaw season. Several estimates of CH4emission from high-latitude lakes have been published but none relies on geospatial lake distributions and satellite-based duration and timing of thaw seasons. We report on a climatology of weekly, spatially-explicit methane emissions from high-latitude lakes. Lake break-up and freeze-up dates for lakes >50km^2 were determined from a lake-ice phenology data set derived from brightness temperature (Tb) observations of space-borne Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E/2) sensors. The lake-ice conditions for smaller lakes were estimated using an Earth System Data Record for Land Surface Freeze-Thaw State derived from Tb observations of Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR), Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), and SSM/I Sounder (SSMIS). Climatologies encompass 2002-2015 for lake ice phenology and 1979 to 2010 for the land surface freeze-thaw state. Climatologies encompass 2003-2014 for ice phenology and 1979 to 2010 for freeze-thaw dynamics. Length and timing of typical methane-emission periods, derived from the satellite data, were integrated with daily diffusive and ebulliative methane fluxes for lake types following the work of Wik et al. (Nature, 2016) to estimate a full annual cycle of emissions from lakes >50˚N. We explored several approaches to estimate the large bursts of emissions observed over short periods during lake-ice breakup immediately prior to full lake thaw since several studies suggest that a substantial fraction of total annual emissions may occur at this time. While highly uncertain, we plan to investigate whether the modest, short-lived but annual uptick in atmospheric methane concentrations in late winter/early spring may be associated with these bursts of methane from lakes.

Evaluation of results of cell electrophoresis experiments on space shuttle STS-3 including pre-flight and post-flight laboratory experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Todd, P. W.

1985-01-01

The objectives of the red blood cell experiments were to provide a visual check on the electrophoretic process and especially electroosmotic flow in space as well as to provide test separations of non-degradable standard particles for comparison with the separations of the three viable cell types studied on the Apollo-Soyuz Test Project. Determination of the maximum concentrations of cells that can be separated in column electrophore was a significant goal. Two of the eight columns were available for red cell experiments, so two concentrations of human and rabbit RBC mixtures were used. The objectives of another experiment were to evaluate the reproducibility of microgravity electrophoretic separation of living kidney cells, to separate cells with highly viability despite two freeze-thaw cycles, and to optimize the physical conditions of cell separation. Owing to the uncertain heterogeneity of the starting material, the experimental design does not assess resolution in microgravity, but improved separability was sought in comparison to density-gradient electrophoresis or continuous-flow electrophoresis. Efforts were made to increase cell yield and cell viability and to assess reproducibility directly.

Global assessment of ocean carbon export by combining satellite observations and food-web models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siegel, D. A.; Buesseler, K. O.; Doney, S. C.; Sailley, S. F.; Behrenfeld, M. J.; Boyd, P. W.

2014-03-01

The export of organic carbon from the surface ocean by sinking particles is an important, yet highly uncertain, component of the global carbon cycle. Here we introduce a mechanistic assessment of the global ocean carbon export using satellite observations, including determinations of net primary production and the slope of the particle size spectrum, to drive a food-web model that estimates the production of sinking zooplankton feces and algal aggregates comprising the sinking particle flux at the base of the euphotic zone. The synthesis of observations and models reveals fundamentally different and ecologically consistent regional-scale patterns in export and export efficiency not found in previous global carbon export assessments. The model reproduces regional-scale particle export field observations and predicts a climatological mean global carbon export from the euphotic zone of 6 Pg C yr-1. Global export estimates show small variation (typically < 10%) to factor of 2 changes in model parameter values. The model is also robust to the choices of the satellite data products used and enables interannual changes to be quantified. The present synthesis of observations and models provides a path for quantifying the ocean's biological pump.

Land cover maps, BVOC emissions, and SOA burden in a global aerosol-climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanelle, Tanja; Henrot, Alexandra; Bey, Isaelle

2015-04-01

It has been reported that different land cover representations influence the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) (e.g. Guenther et al., 2006). But the land cover forcing used in model simulations is quite uncertain (e.g. Jung et al., 2006). As a consequence the simulated emission of BVOCs depends on the applied land cover map. To test the sensitivity of global and regional estimates of BVOC emissions on the applied land cover map we applied 3 different land cover maps into our global aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2.2. We found a high sensitivity for tropical regions. BVOCs are a very prominent precursor for the production of Secondary Organic Aerosols (SOA). Therefore the sensitivity of BVOC emissions on land cover maps impacts the SOA burden in the atmosphere. With our model system we are able to quantify that impact. References: Guenther et al. (2006), Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 3181-3210, doi:10.5194/acp-6-3181-2006. Jung et al. (2006), Exploiting synergies of global land cover products for carbon cycle modeling, Rem. Sens. Environm., 101, 534-553, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2006.01.020.

Recovering metallic fractions from waste electrical and electronic equipment by a novel vibration system.

PubMed

Habib, Muddasar; Miles, Nicholas J; Hall, Philip

2013-03-01

The need to recover and recycle valuable resources from Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) is of growing importance as increasing amounts are generated due to shorter product life cycles, market expansions, new product developments and, higher consumption and production rates. The European Commission (EC) directive, 2002/96/EC, on WEEE became law in UK in January 2007 setting targets to recover up to 80% of all WEEE generated. Printed Wire Board (PWB) and/or Printed Circuit Board (PCB) is an important component of WEEE with an ever increasing tonnage being generated. However, the lack of an accurate estimate for PCB production, future supply and uncertain demands of its recycled materials in international markets has provided the motivation to explore different approaches to recycle PCBs. The work contained in this paper focuses on a novel, dry separation methodology in which vertical vibration is used to separate the metallic and non-metallic fractions of PCBs. When PCBs were comminuted to less than 1mm in size, metallic grades as high as 95% (measured by heavy liquid analysis) could be achieved in the recovered products. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The search for signs of recovery of the ozone layer.

PubMed

Weatherhead, Elizabeth C; Andersen, Signe Bech

2006-05-04

Evidence of mid-latitude ozone depletion and proof that the Antarctic ozone hole was caused by humans spurred policy makers from the late 1980s onwards to ratify the Montreal Protocol and subsequent treaties, legislating for reduced production of ozone-depleting substances. The case of anthropogenic ozone loss has often been cited since as a success story of international agreements in the regulation of environmental pollution. Although recent data suggest that total column ozone abundances have at least not decreased over the past eight years for most of the world, it is still uncertain whether this improvement is actually attributable to the observed decline in the amount of ozone-depleting substances in the Earth's atmosphere. The high natural variability in ozone abundances, due in part to the solar cycle as well as changes in transport and temperature, could override the relatively small changes expected from the recent decrease in ozone-depleting substances. Whatever the benefits of the Montreal agreement, recovery of ozone is likely to occur in a different atmospheric environment, with changes expected in atmospheric transport, temperature and important trace gases. It is therefore unlikely that ozone will stabilize at levels observed before 1980, when a decline in ozone concentrations was first observed.

Zooplankton Responses to Low-Oxygen Condition upon a Shallow Oxygen Minimum Zone in the Upwelling Region off Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidalgo, P.; Escribano, R.

2015-12-01

A shallow oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) is a critical component in the coastal upwelling ecosystem off Chile. This OMZ causes oxygen-deficient water entering the photic layer and affecting plankton communities having low tolerance to hypoxia. Variable, and usually species-dependent, responses of zooplankton to hypoxia condition can be found. Most dominant species avoid hypoxia by restricting their vertical distribution, while others can temporarily enter and even spent part of their life cycle within the OMZ. Whatever the case, low-oxygen conditions appear to affect virtually all vital rates of zooplankton, such as mortality, fecundity, development and growth and metabolism, and early developmental stages seem more sensitive, with significant consequences for population and community dynamics. For most study cases, these effects are negative at individual and population levels. Observations and predictions upon increasing upwelling intensity over the last 20-30 years indicate a gradual shoaling of the OMZ, and so that an expected enhancement of these negative effects of hypoxia on the zooplankton community. Unknown processes of adaptation and community-structure adjustments are expected to take place with uncertain consequences for the food web of this highly productive eastern boundary current ecosystem.

A global dataset of sub-daily rainfall indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowler, H. J.; Lewis, E.; Blenkinsop, S.; Guerreiro, S.; Li, X.; Barbero, R.; Chan, S.; Lenderink, G.; Westra, S.

2017-12-01

It is still uncertain how hydrological extremes will change with global warming as we do not fully understand the processes that cause extreme precipitation under current climate variability. The INTENSE project is using a novel and fully-integrated data-modelling approach to provide a step-change in our understanding of the nature and drivers of global precipitation extremes and change on societally relevant timescales, leading to improved high-resolution climate model representation of extreme rainfall processes. The INTENSE project is in conjunction with the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)'s Grand Challenge on 'Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes' and the Global Water and Energy Exchanges Project (GEWEX) Science questions. A new global sub-daily precipitation dataset has been constructed (data collection is ongoing). Metadata for each station has been calculated, detailing record lengths, missing data, station locations. A set of global hydroclimatic indices have been produced based upon stakeholder recommendations including indices that describe maximum rainfall totals and timing, the intensity, duration and frequency of storms, frequency of storms above specific thresholds and information about the diurnal cycle. This will provide a unique global data resource on sub-daily precipitation whose derived indices will be freely available to the wider scientific community.

Structure of the Ubiquitin Hydrolase UCH-L3 Complexed with a Suicide Substrate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Misaghi, S.; Galardy, P.J.; Meester, W.J.

Ubiquitin C-terminal hydrolases (UCHs) comprise a family of small ubiquitin-specific proteases of uncertain function. Although no cellular substrates have been identified for UCHs, their highly tissue-specific expression patterns and the association of UCH-L1 mutations with human disease strongly suggest a critical role. The structure of the yeast UCH Yuh1-ubiquitin aldehyde complex identified an active site crossover loop predicted to limit the size of suitable substrates. We report the 1.45 {angstrom} resolution crystal structure of human UCH-L3 in complex with the inhibitor ubiquitin vinylmethylester, an inhibitor that forms a covalent adduct with the active site cysteine of ubiquitin-specific proteases. This structuremore » confirms the predicted mechanism of the inhibitor and allows the direct comparison of a UCH family enzyme in the free and ligand-bound state. We also show the efficient hydrolysis by human UCH-L3 of a 13-residue peptide in isopeptide linkage with ubiquitin, consistent with considerable flexibility in UCH substrate size. We propose a model for the catalytic cycle of UCH family members which accounts for the hydrolysis of larger ubiquitin conjugates.« less

Trust-Based Security Level Evaluation Using Bayesian Belief Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houmb, Siv Hilde; Ray, Indrakshi; Ray, Indrajit; Chakraborty, Sudip

Security is not merely about technical solutions and patching vulnerabilities. Security is about trade-offs and adhering to realistic security needs, employed to support core business processes. Also, modern systems are subject to a highly competitive market, often demanding rapid development cycles, short life-time, short time-to-market, and small budgets. Security evaluation standards, such as ISO 14508 Common Criteria and ISO/IEC 27002, are not adequate for evaluating the security of many modern systems for resource limitations, time-to-market, and other constraints. Towards this end, we propose an alternative time and cost effective approach for evaluating the security level of a security solution, system or part thereof. Our approach relies on collecting information from different sources, who are trusted to varying degrees, and on using a trust measure to aggregate available information when deriving security level. Our approach is quantitative and implemented as a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) topology, allowing us to reason over uncertain information and seemingly aggregating disparate information. We illustrate our approach by deriving the security level of two alternative Denial of Service (DoS) solutions. Our approach can also be used in the context of security solution trade-off analysis.

Tuning Transpiration by Interfacial Solar Absorber-Leaf Engineering.

PubMed

Zhuang, Shendong; Zhou, Lin; Xu, Weichao; Xu, Ning; Hu, Xiaozhen; Li, Xiuqiang; Lv, Guangxin; Zheng, Qinghui; Zhu, Shining; Wang, Zhenlin; Zhu, Jia

2018-02-01

Plant transpiration, a process of water movement through a plant and its evaporation from aerial parts especially leaves, consumes a large component of the total continental precipitation (≈48%) and significantly influences global water distribution and climate. To date, various chemical and/or biological explorations have been made to tune the transpiration but with uncertain environmental risks. In recent years, interfacial solar steam/vapor generation is attracting a lot of attention for achieving high energy transfer efficiency. Various optical and thermal designs at the solar absorber-water interface for potential applications in water purification, seawater desalination, and power generation appear. In this work, the concept of interfacial solar vapor generation is extended to tunable plant transpiration by showing for the first time that the transpiration efficiency can also be enhanced or suppressed through engineering the solar absorber-leaf interface. By tuning the solar absorption of membrane in direct touch with green leaf, surface temperature of green leaf will change accordingly because of photothermal effect, thus the transpiration efficiency as well as temperature and relative humidity in the surrounding environment will be tuned. This tunable transpiration by interfacial absorber-leaf engineering can open an alternative avenue to regulate local atmospheric temperature, humidity, and eventually hydrologic cycle.

A Climatology of dust emission in northern Africa using surface observations from 1984-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowie, Sophie; Knippertz, Peter; Marsham, John

2014-05-01

The huge quantity of mineral dust emitted annually from northern Africa makes this area crucial to the global dust cycle. Once in the atmosphere, dust aerosols have a significant impact on the global radiation budget, clouds, the carbon cycle and can even act as a fertilizer to rain forests in South America. Current model estimates of dust production from northern Africa are uncertain. At the heart of this problem is insufficient understanding of key dust emitting processes such as haboobs (cold pools generated through evaporation of convective precipitation), low-level jets (LLJs) and dry convection (dust devils and dust plumes). Scarce observations in this region, in particular in the Sahara, make model evaluation difficult. This work uses long-term surface observations from 70 stations situated in the Sahara and Sahel to explore the diurnal, seasonal and geographical variations in dust emission events and thresholds. Quality flags are applied to each station to indicate a day-time bias or gaps in the time period 1984-2012. The frequency of dust emission (FDE) is calculated using the present weather codes (WW) of SYNOP reports, where WW = 07,08,09,30-35 and 98. Thresholds are investigated by estimating the wind speeds for which there is a 25%, 50% and 75% probability of dust emission. The 50% threshold is used to calculate strong wind frequency (SWF) and the diagnostic parameter dust uplift potential (DUP); a thresholded cubic function of wind-speed which quantifies the dust generating power of winds. Stations are grouped into 6 areas (North Algeria, Central Sahara, Egypt, West Sahel, Central Sahel and Sudan) for more in-depth analysis of these parameters. Spatially, thresholds are highest in northern Algeria and lowest in the Sahel around the latitude band 16N-21N. Annual mean FDE is anti-correlated with the threshold, showing the importance of spatial variations in thresholds for mean dust emission. The annual cycles of FDE and SWF for the 6 grouped areas are highly correlated (0.95 to 0.99). These correlations are barely reduced when annual-mean thresholds are used, showing that seasonal variations in thresholds are not the main control on the seasonal variations in FDE. Relationships between annual cycles in FDE and DUP are more complex than between FDE and SWF, reflecting the seasonal variations in the types and intensities of dust events. FDE is highest in spring north of 23N. South of this, where stations are directly influenced by the summer monsoon, the annual cycle in FDE is much more variable. Half of the total DUP occurs at wind-speeds greater than ~ 28 ms-1, which highlights the importance of rare high-energy wind events. The likely meteorological mechanisms generating these patterns are discussed.

High Costs, Uncertain Benefits: What Do Americans without a College Degree Think about Postsecondary Education?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelly, Andrew P.

2015-01-01

The path to economic mobility increasingly runs through postsecondary education. Although the combination of rising tuition prices and a difficult labor market have raised questions about the value of education after high school, degree and certificate holders are still better off than those with just a high school diploma. As a group, young…

How uncertain is the future of electric vehicle market: Results from Monte Carlo simulations using a nested logit model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Changzheng; Oak Ridge National Lab.; Lin, Zhenhong

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are widely regarded as an important component of the technology portfolio designed to accomplish policy goals in sustainability and energy security. However, the market acceptance of PEVs in the future remains largely uncertain from today's perspective. By integrating a consumer choice model based on nested multinomial logit and Monte Carlo simulation, this study analyzes the uncertainty of PEV market penetration using Monte Carlo simulation. Results suggest that the future market for PEVs is highly uncertain and there is a substantial risk of low penetration in the early and midterm market. Top factors contributing to market sharemore » variability are price sensitivities, energy cost, range limitation, and charging availability. The results also illustrate the potential effect of public policies in promoting PEVs through investment in battery technology and infrastructure deployment. Here, continued improvement of battery technologies and deployment of charging infrastructure alone do not necessarily reduce the spread of market share distributions, but may shift distributions toward right, i.e., increase the probability of having great market success.« less

How uncertain is the future of electric vehicle market: Results from Monte Carlo simulations using a nested logit model

DOE PAGES

Liu, Changzheng; Oak Ridge National Lab.; Lin, Zhenhong; ...

2016-12-08

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are widely regarded as an important component of the technology portfolio designed to accomplish policy goals in sustainability and energy security. However, the market acceptance of PEVs in the future remains largely uncertain from today's perspective. By integrating a consumer choice model based on nested multinomial logit and Monte Carlo simulation, this study analyzes the uncertainty of PEV market penetration using Monte Carlo simulation. Results suggest that the future market for PEVs is highly uncertain and there is a substantial risk of low penetration in the early and midterm market. Top factors contributing to market sharemore » variability are price sensitivities, energy cost, range limitation, and charging availability. The results also illustrate the potential effect of public policies in promoting PEVs through investment in battery technology and infrastructure deployment. Here, continued improvement of battery technologies and deployment of charging infrastructure alone do not necessarily reduce the spread of market share distributions, but may shift distributions toward right, i.e., increase the probability of having great market success.« less

The Robustness Analysis of Wireless Sensor Networks under Uncertain Interference

PubMed Central

Deng, Changjian

2013-01-01

Based on the complex network theory, robustness analysis of condition monitoring wireless sensor network under uncertain interference is present. In the evolution of the topology of sensor networks, the density weighted algebraic connectivity is taken into account, and the phenomenon of removing and repairing the link and node in the network is discussed. Numerical simulation is conducted to explore algebraic connectivity characteristics and network robustness performance. It is found that nodes density has the effect on algebraic connectivity distribution in the random graph model; high density nodes carry more connections, use more throughputs, and may be more unreliable. Moreover, the results show that, when network should be more error tolerant or robust by repairing nodes or adding new nodes, the network should be better clustered in median and high scale wireless sensor networks and be meshing topology in small scale networks. PMID:24363613

Analysis of torque transmitting behavior and wheel slip prevention control during regenerative braking for high speed EMU trains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Kun; Xu, Guo-Qing; Zheng, Chun-Hua

2016-04-01

The wheel-rail adhesion control for regenerative braking systems of high speed electric multiple unit trains is crucial to maintaining the stability, improving the adhesion utilization, and achieving deep energy recovery. There remain technical challenges mainly because of the nonlinear, uncertain, and varying features of wheel-rail contact conditions. This research analyzes the torque transmitting behavior during regenerative braking, and proposes a novel methodology to detect the wheel-rail adhesion stability. Then, applications to the wheel slip prevention during braking are investigated, and the optimal slip ratio control scheme is proposed, which is based on a novel optimal reference generation of the slip ratio and a robust sliding mode control. The proposed methodology achieves the optimal braking performance without the wheel-rail contact information. Numerical simulation results for uncertain slippery rails verify the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

High-order sliding-mode control for blood glucose regulation in the presence of uncertain dynamics.

PubMed

Hernández, Ana Gabriela Gallardo; Fridman, Leonid; Leder, Ron; Andrade, Sergio Islas; Monsalve, Cristina Revilla; Shtessel, Yuri; Levant, Arie

2011-01-01

The success of blood glucose automatic regulation depends on the robustness of the control algorithm used. It is a difficult task to perform due to the complexity of the glucose-insulin regulation system. The variety of model existing reflects the great amount of phenomena involved in the process, and the inter-patient variability of the parameters represent another challenge. In this research a High-Order Sliding-Mode Control is proposed. It is applied to two well known models, Bergman Minimal Model, and Sorensen Model, to test its robustness with respect to uncertain dynamics, and patients' parameter variability. The controller designed based on the simulations is tested with the specific Bergman Minimal Model of a diabetic patient whose parameters were identified from an in vivo assay. To minimize the insulin infusion rate, and avoid the hypoglycemia risk, the glucose target is a dynamical profile.

Filling Knowledge Gaps for Mimivirus Entry, Uncoating, and Morphogenesis

PubMed Central

Andrade, Ana Cláudia dos Santos Pereira; Rodrigues, Rodrigo Araújo Lima; Oliveira, Graziele Pereira; Andrade, Kétyllen Reis; Bonjardim, Cláudio Antônio; La Scola, Bernard; Kroon, Erna Geessien

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Since the discovery of mimivirus, its unusual structural and genomic features have raised great interest in the study of its biology; however, many aspects concerning its replication cycle remain uncertain. In this study, extensive analyses of electron microscope images, as well as biological assay results, shed light on unclear points concerning the mimivirus replication cycle. We found that treatment with cytochalasin, a phagocytosis inhibitor, negatively impacted the incorporation of mimivirus particles by Acanthamoeba castellanii, causing a negative effect on viral growth in amoeba monolayers. Treatment of amoebas with bafilomicin significantly impacted mimivirus uncoating and replication. In conjunction with microscopic analyses, these data suggest that mimiviruses indeed depend on phagocytosis for entry into amoebas, and particle uncoating (and stargate opening) appears to be dependent on phagosome acidification. In-depth analyses of particle morphogenesis suggest that the mimivirus capsids are assembled from growing lamellar structures. Despite proposals from previous studies that genome acquisition occurs before the acquisition of fibrils, our results clearly demonstrate that the genome and fibrils can be acquired simultaneously. Our data suggest the existence of a specific area surrounding the core of the viral factory where particles acquire the surface fibrils. Furthermore, we reinforce the concept that defective particles can be formed even in the absence of virophages. Our work provides new information about unexplored steps in the life cycle of mimivirus. IMPORTANCE Investigating the viral life cycle is essential to a better understanding of virus biology. The combination of biological assays and microscopic images allows a clear view of the biological features of viruses. Since the discovery of mimivirus, many studies have been conducted to characterize its replication cycle, but many knowledge gaps remain to be filled. In this study, we conducted a new examination of the replication cycle of mimivirus and provide new evidence concerning some stages of the cycle which were previously unclear, mainly entry, uncoating, and morphogenesis. Furthermore, we demonstrate that atypical virion morphologies can occur even in the absence of virophages. Our results, along with previous data, allow us to present an ultimate model for the mimivirus replication cycle. PMID:28878069

Filling Knowledge Gaps for Mimivirus Entry, Uncoating, and Morphogenesis.

PubMed

Andrade, Ana Cláudia Dos Santos Pereira; Rodrigues, Rodrigo Araújo Lima; Oliveira, Graziele Pereira; Andrade, Kétyllen Reis; Bonjardim, Cláudio Antônio; La Scola, Bernard; Kroon, Erna Geessien; Abrahão, Jônatas Santos

2017-11-15

Since the discovery of mimivirus, its unusual structural and genomic features have raised great interest in the study of its biology; however, many aspects concerning its replication cycle remain uncertain. In this study, extensive analyses of electron microscope images, as well as biological assay results, shed light on unclear points concerning the mimivirus replication cycle. We found that treatment with cytochalasin, a phagocytosis inhibitor, negatively impacted the incorporation of mimivirus particles by Acanthamoeba castellanii , causing a negative effect on viral growth in amoeba monolayers. Treatment of amoebas with bafilomicin significantly impacted mimivirus uncoating and replication. In conjunction with microscopic analyses, these data suggest that mimiviruses indeed depend on phagocytosis for entry into amoebas, and particle uncoating (and stargate opening) appears to be dependent on phagosome acidification. In-depth analyses of particle morphogenesis suggest that the mimivirus capsids are assembled from growing lamellar structures. Despite proposals from previous studies that genome acquisition occurs before the acquisition of fibrils, our results clearly demonstrate that the genome and fibrils can be acquired simultaneously. Our data suggest the existence of a specific area surrounding the core of the viral factory where particles acquire the surface fibrils. Furthermore, we reinforce the concept that defective particles can be formed even in the absence of virophages. Our work provides new information about unexplored steps in the life cycle of mimivirus. IMPORTANCE Investigating the viral life cycle is essential to a better understanding of virus biology. The combination of biological assays and microscopic images allows a clear view of the biological features of viruses. Since the discovery of mimivirus, many studies have been conducted to characterize its replication cycle, but many knowledge gaps remain to be filled. In this study, we conducted a new examination of the replication cycle of mimivirus and provide new evidence concerning some stages of the cycle which were previously unclear, mainly entry, uncoating, and morphogenesis. Furthermore, we demonstrate that atypical virion morphologies can occur even in the absence of virophages. Our results, along with previous data, allow us to present an ultimate model for the mimivirus replication cycle. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

Betting the House: Teacher Investment, Identity, and Attrition in Urban Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dunn, Alyssa Hadley; Downey, C. Aiden

2018-01-01

This study explores the impetus for and impact of four urban teachers' extracurricular investments. Framing teacher investment as work voluntarily undertaken with an eye toward bringing about a highly desired, yet highly uncertain, end, we argue that the outcome of these often-hidden investments have identity and career implications for teachers.…

Barriers to applying advanced high-temperature materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Premkumar, M. K.

1993-01-01

During the past 25 years, aerospace engineers and material scientists have made significant technical progress toward developing next-generation aircraft. However, while advanced high-temperature materials continue to be developed, the outlook for their future application is uncertain and will depend on the ability of these materials to satisfy a more diverse market.

High risk of permafrost thaw

Treesearch

E.A.G. Schuur; B.W. Abbott; W.B. Bowden; V. Brovkin; P. Camill; J.P. Canadell; F.S. Chapin; T.R. Christensen; J.P. Chanton; P. Ciais; P.M. Crill; B.T. Crosby; C.I. Czimczik; G. Grosse; D.J. Hayes; G. Hugelius; J.D. Jastrow; T. Kleinen; C.D. Koven; G. Krinner; P. Kuhry; D.M. Lawrence; S.M. Natali; C.L. Ping; A. Rinke; W.J. Riley; V.E. Romanovsky; A.B.K. Sannel; C. Schadel; K. Schaefer; Z.M. Subin; C. Tarnocai; M. Turetsky; K. M. Walter-Anthony; C.J. Wilson; S.A. Zimov

2011-01-01

Arctic temperatures are rising fast, and permafrost is thawing. Carbon released into the atmosphere from permafrost soils will accelerate climate change, but the magnitude of this effect remains highly uncertain. Our collective estimate is that carbon will be released more quickly than models suggest, and at levels that are cause for serious concern. We calculate that...

Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainities for Different Mission Time Periods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim,Myung-Hee Y.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2012-01-01

Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic ray (GCR), which includes high energy protons and high charge and energy (HZE) nuclei. For long duration missions, space radiation presents significant health risks including cancer mortality. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is essential for radiation protection of crews on long term space missions outside of the protection of the Earth s magnetic field and for optimization of mission planning and costs. For the assessment of organ dosimetric quantities and cancer risks, the particle spectra at each critical body organs must be characterized. In implementing a PRA approach, a statistical model of SPE fluence was developed, because the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature while the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle. Spectral variability of SPEs was also examined, because the detailed energy spectra of protons are important especially at high energy levels for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. An overall cumulative probability of a GCR environment for a specified mission period was estimated for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment represented by the deceleration potential (theta). Finally, this probabilistic approach to space radiation cancer risk was coupled with a model of the radiobiological factors and uncertainties in projecting cancer risks. Probabilities of fatal cancer risk and 95% confidence intervals will be reported for various periods of space missions.

Feedforward/feedback control synthesis for performance and robustness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wie, Bong; Liu, Qiang

1990-01-01

Both feedforward and feedback control approaches for uncertain dynamical systems are investigated. The control design objective is to achieve a fast settling time (high performance) and robustness (insensitivity) to plant modeling uncertainty. Preshapong of an ideal, time-optimal control input using a 'tapped-delay' filter is shown to provide a rapid maneuver with robust performance. A robust, non-minimum-phase feedback controller is synthesized with particular emphasis on its proper implementation for a non-zero set-point control problem. The proposed feedforward/feedback control approach is robust for a certain class of uncertain dynamical systems, since the control input command computed for a given desired output does not depend on the plant parameters.

Fuzzy mobile-robot positioning in intelligent spaces using wireless sensor networks.

PubMed

Herrero, David; Martínez, Humberto

2011-01-01

This work presents the development and experimental evaluation of a method based on fuzzy logic to locate mobile robots in an Intelligent Space using wireless sensor networks (WSNs). The problem consists of locating a mobile node using only inter-node range measurements, which are estimated by radio frequency signal strength attenuation. The sensor model of these measurements is very noisy and unreliable. The proposed method makes use of fuzzy logic for modeling and dealing with such uncertain information. Besides, the proposed approach is compared with a probabilistic technique showing that the fuzzy approach is able to handle highly uncertain situations that are difficult to manage by well-known localization methods.

Adaptive route choice modeling in uncertain traffic networks with real-time information.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-03-01

The objective of the research is to study travelers' route choice behavior in uncertain traffic networks : with real-time information. The research is motivated by two observations of the traffic system: 1) : the system is inherently uncertain with r...

Warming reduces carbon losses from grassland exposed to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide.

PubMed

Pendall, Elise; Heisler-White, Jana L; Williams, David G; Dijkstra, Feike A; Carrillo, Yolima; Morgan, Jack A; Lecain, Daniel R

2013-01-01

The flux of carbon dioxide (CO2) between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere may ameliorate or exacerbate climate change, depending on the relative responses of ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration to warming temperatures, rising atmospheric CO2, and altered precipitation. The combined effect of these global change factors is especially uncertain because of their potential for interactions and indirectly mediated conditions such as soil moisture. Here, we present observations of CO2 fluxes from a multi-factor experiment in semi-arid grassland that suggests a potentially strong climate - carbon cycle feedback under combined elevated [CO2] and warming. Elevated [CO2] alone, and in combination with warming, enhanced ecosystem respiration to a greater extent than photosynthesis, resulting in net C loss over four years. The effect of warming was to reduce respiration especially during years of below-average precipitation, by partially offsetting the effect of elevated [CO2] on soil moisture and C cycling. Carbon losses were explained partly by stimulated decomposition of soil organic matter with elevated [CO2]. The climate - carbon cycle feedback observed in this semiarid grassland was mediated by soil water content, which was reduced by warming and increased by elevated [CO2]. Ecosystem models should incorporate direct and indirect effects of climate change on soil water content in order to accurately predict terrestrial feedbacks and long-term storage of C in soil.

PEATBOG: a biogeochemical model for analyzing coupled carbon and nitrogen dynamics in northern peatlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Y.; Blodau, C.

2013-08-01

Elevated nitrogen deposition and climate change alter the vegetation communities and carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling in peatlands. To address this issue we developed a new process-oriented biogeochemical model (PEATBOG) for analyzing coupled carbon and nitrogen dynamics in northern peatlands. The model consists of four submodels, which simulate: (1) daily water table depth and depth profiles of soil moisture, temperature and oxygen levels; (2) competition among three plants functional types (PFTs), production and litter production of plants; (3) decomposition of peat; and (4) production, consumption, diffusion and export of dissolved C and N species in soil water. The model is novel in the integration of the C and N cycles, the explicit spatial resolution belowground, the consistent conceptualization of movement of water and solutes, the incorporation of stoichiometric controls on elemental fluxes and a consistent conceptualization of C and N reactivity in vegetation and soil organic matter. The model was evaluated for the Mer Bleue Bog, near Ottawa, Ontario, with regards to simulation of soil moisture and temperature and the most important processes in the C and N cycles. Model sensitivity was tested for nitrogen input, precipitation, and temperature, and the choices of the most uncertain parameters were justified. A simulation of nitrogen deposition over 40 yr demonstrates the advantages of the PEATBOG model in tracking biogeochemical effects and vegetation change in the ecosystem.

PEATBOG: a biogeochemical model for analyzing coupled carbon and nitrogen dynamics in northern peatlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Y.; Blodau, C.

2013-03-01

Elevated nitrogen deposition and climate change alter the vegetation communities and carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling in peatlands. To address this issue we developed a new process-oriented biogeochemical model (PEATBOG) for analyzing coupled carbon and nitrogen dynamics in northern peatlands. The model consists of four submodels, which simulate: (1) daily water table depth and depth profiles of soil moisture, temperature and oxygen levels; (2) competition among three plants functional types (PFTs), production and litter production of plants; (3) decomposition of peat; and (4) production, consumption, diffusion and export of dissolved C and N species in soil water. The model is novel in the integration of the C and N cycles, the explicit spatial resolution belowground, the consistent conceptualization of movement of water and solutes, the incorporation of stoichiometric controls on elemental fluxes and a consistent conceptualization of C and N reactivity in vegetation and soil organic matter. The model was evaluated for the Mer Bleue Bog, near Ottawa, Ontario, with regards to simulation of soil moisture and temperature and the most important processes in the C and N cycles. Model sensitivity was tested for nitrogen input, precipitation, and temperature, and the choices of the most uncertain parameters were justified. A simulation of nitrogen deposition over 40 yr demonstrates the advantages of the PEATBOG model in tracking biogeochemical effects and vegetation change in the ecosystem.

Evaluating uncertainty in environmental life-cycle assessment. A case study comparing two insulation options for a Dutch one-family dwelling.

PubMed

Huijbregts, Mark A J; Gilijamse, Wim; Ragas, Ad M J; Reijnders, Lucas

2003-06-01

The evaluation of uncertainty is relatively new in environmental life-cycle assessment (LCA). It provides useful information to assess the reliability of LCA-based decisions and to guide future research toward reducing uncertainty. Most uncertainty studies in LCA quantify only one type of uncertainty, i.e., uncertainty due to input data (parameter uncertainty). However, LCA outcomes can also be uncertain due to normative choices (scenario uncertainty) and the mathematical models involved (model uncertainty). The present paper outlines a new methodology that quantifies parameter, scenario, and model uncertainty simultaneously in environmental life-cycle assessment. The procedure is illustrated in a case study that compares two insulation options for a Dutch one-family dwelling. Parameter uncertainty was quantified by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Scenario and model uncertainty were quantified by resampling different decision scenarios and model formulations, respectively. Although scenario and model uncertainty were not quantified comprehensively, the results indicate that both types of uncertainty influence the case study outcomes. This stresses the importance of quantifying parameter, scenario, and model uncertainty simultaneously. The two insulation options studied were found to have significantly different impact scores for global warming, stratospheric ozone depletion, and eutrophication. The thickest insulation option has the lowest impact on global warming and eutrophication, and the highest impact on stratospheric ozone depletion.

Warming Reduces Carbon Losses from Grassland Exposed to Elevated Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

PubMed Central

Pendall, Elise; Heisler-White, Jana L.; Williams, David G.; Dijkstra, Feike A.; Carrillo, Yolima; Morgan, Jack A.; LeCain, Daniel R.

2013-01-01

The flux of carbon dioxide (CO2) between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere may ameliorate or exacerbate climate change, depending on the relative responses of ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration to warming temperatures, rising atmospheric CO2, and altered precipitation. The combined effect of these global change factors is especially uncertain because of their potential for interactions and indirectly mediated conditions such as soil moisture. Here, we present observations of CO2 fluxes from a multi-factor experiment in semi-arid grassland that suggests a potentially strong climate – carbon cycle feedback under combined elevated [CO2] and warming. Elevated [CO2] alone, and in combination with warming, enhanced ecosystem respiration to a greater extent than photosynthesis, resulting in net C loss over four years. The effect of warming was to reduce respiration especially during years of below-average precipitation, by partially offsetting the effect of elevated [CO2] on soil moisture and C cycling. Carbon losses were explained partly by stimulated decomposition of soil organic matter with elevated [CO2]. The climate – carbon cycle feedback observed in this semiarid grassland was mediated by soil water content, which was reduced by warming and increased by elevated [CO2]. Ecosystem models should incorporate direct and indirect effects of climate change on soil water content in order to accurately predict terrestrial feedbacks and long-term storage of C in soil. PMID:23977180

Terrestrial nitrogen–carbon cycle interactions at the global scale

PubMed Central

Zaehle, S.

2013-01-01

Interactions between the terrestrial nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) cycles shape the response of ecosystems to global change. However, the global distribution of nitrogen availability and its importance in global biogeochemistry and biogeochemical interactions with the climate system remain uncertain. Based on projections of a terrestrial biosphere model scaling ecological understanding of nitrogen–carbon cycle interactions to global scales, anthropogenic nitrogen additions since 1860 are estimated to have enriched the terrestrial biosphere by 1.3 Pg N, supporting the sequestration of 11.2 Pg C. Over the same time period, CO2 fertilization has increased terrestrial carbon storage by 134.0 Pg C, increasing the terrestrial nitrogen stock by 1.2 Pg N. In 2001–2010, terrestrial ecosystems sequestered an estimated total of 27 Tg N yr−1 (1.9 Pg C yr−1), of which 10 Tg N yr−1 (0.2 Pg C yr−1) are due to anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. Nitrogen availability already limits terrestrial carbon sequestration in the boreal and temperate zone, and will constrain future carbon sequestration in response to CO2 fertilization (regionally by up to 70% compared with an estimate without considering nitrogen–carbon interactions). This reduced terrestrial carbon uptake will probably dominate the role of the terrestrial nitrogen cycle in the climate system, as it accelerates the accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere. However, increases of N2O emissions owing to anthropogenic nitrogen and climate change (at a rate of approx. 0.5 Tg N yr−1 per 1°C degree climate warming) will add an important long-term climate forcing. PMID:23713123

Terrestrial nitrogen-carbon cycle interactions at the global scale.

PubMed

Zaehle, S

2013-07-05

Interactions between the terrestrial nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) cycles shape the response of ecosystems to global change. However, the global distribution of nitrogen availability and its importance in global biogeochemistry and biogeochemical interactions with the climate system remain uncertain. Based on projections of a terrestrial biosphere model scaling ecological understanding of nitrogen-carbon cycle interactions to global scales, anthropogenic nitrogen additions since 1860 are estimated to have enriched the terrestrial biosphere by 1.3 Pg N, supporting the sequestration of 11.2 Pg C. Over the same time period, CO2 fertilization has increased terrestrial carbon storage by 134.0 Pg C, increasing the terrestrial nitrogen stock by 1.2 Pg N. In 2001-2010, terrestrial ecosystems sequestered an estimated total of 27 Tg N yr(-1) (1.9 Pg C yr(-1)), of which 10 Tg N yr(-1) (0.2 Pg C yr(-1)) are due to anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. Nitrogen availability already limits terrestrial carbon sequestration in the boreal and temperate zone, and will constrain future carbon sequestration in response to CO2 fertilization (regionally by up to 70% compared with an estimate without considering nitrogen-carbon interactions). This reduced terrestrial carbon uptake will probably dominate the role of the terrestrial nitrogen cycle in the climate system, as it accelerates the accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere. However, increases of N2O emissions owing to anthropogenic nitrogen and climate change (at a rate of approx. 0.5 Tg N yr(-1) per 1°C degree climate warming) will add an important long-term climate forcing.

Evolution of the global phosphorus cycle.

PubMed

Reinhard, Christopher T; Planavsky, Noah J; Gill, Benjamin C; Ozaki, Kazumi; Robbins, Leslie J; Lyons, Timothy W; Fischer, Woodward W; Wang, Chunjiang; Cole, Devon B; Konhauser, Kurt O

2017-01-19

The macronutrient phosphorus is thought to limit primary productivity in the oceans on geological timescales. Although there has been a sustained effort to reconstruct the dynamics of the phosphorus cycle over the past 3.5 billion years, it remains uncertain whether phosphorus limitation persisted throughout Earth's history and therefore whether the phosphorus cycle has consistently modulated biospheric productivity and ocean-atmosphere oxygen levels over time. Here we present a compilation of phosphorus abundances in marine sedimentary rocks spanning the past 3.5 billion years. We find evidence for relatively low authigenic phosphorus burial in shallow marine environments until about 800 to 700 million years ago. Our interpretation of the database leads us to propose that limited marginal phosphorus burial before that time was linked to phosphorus biolimitation, resulting in elemental stoichiometries in primary producers that diverged strongly from the Redfield ratio (the atomic ratio of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus found in phytoplankton). We place our phosphorus record in a quantitative biogeochemical model framework and find that a combination of enhanced phosphorus scavenging in anoxic, iron-rich oceans and a nutrient-based bistability in atmospheric oxygen levels could have resulted in a stable low-oxygen world. The combination of these factors may explain the protracted oxygenation of Earth's surface over the last 3.5 billion years of Earth history. However, our analysis also suggests that a fundamental shift in the phosphorus cycle may have occurred during the late Proterozoic eon (between 800 and 635 million years ago), coincident with a previously inferred shift in marine redox states, severe perturbations to Earth's climate system, and the emergence of animals.

Toward Creating A Global Retrospective Climatology of Aerosol Properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curran, Robert J.; Mishchenko, Michael I.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Tropospheric aerosols are thought to cause a significant direct and indirect climate forcing, but the magnitude of this forcing remains highly uncertain because of poor knowledge of global aerosol characteristics and their temporal changes. The standard long-term global product, the one-channel Advanced Very-High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) aerosol optical thickness over the ocean, relies on a single predefined aerosol model and can be inaccurate in many cases. Furthermore, it provides no information on aerosol column number density, thus making it impossible to estimate the indirect aerosol effect on climate. Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data can be used to detect absorbing aerosols over land, but are insensitive to aerosols located below one kilometer. It is thus clear that innovative approaches must be employed in order to extract a more quantitative and accurate aerosol climatology from available satellite and other measurements, thus enabling more reliable estimates of the direct and indirect aerosol forcings. The Global Aerosol Climatology Project (GACP) was established in 1998 as part of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX). Its main objective is to analyze satellite radiance measurements and field observations to infer the global distribution of aerosols, their properties, and their seasonal and interannual variations. The overall goal is to develop advanced global aerosol climatologies for the period of satellite data and to make the aerosol climatologies broadly available through the GACP web site.

Formation and plasma circulation of solar prominences and coronal rains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, C.

2016-12-01

Solar prominences are long-lived cool and dense plasma curtains in the hot and rarefied corona. The physical mechanism responsible for their formation and especially for their internal plasma circulation has been uncertain for decades. The observed ubiquitous down flows in quiescent prominences are difficult to interpret as plasma with high conductivity seems to move across horizontal magnetic field lines. Here we present three-dimensional (3D) numerical simulations of prominence formation and evolution in an elongated magnetic flux rope as a result of in-situ plasma condensations fueled by continuous plasma evaporation from the solar chromosphere. The prominence is born and maintained in a fragmented, highly dynamic state with continuous reappearance of multiple blobs and thread structures that move mainly downward dragging along mass-loaded field lines. The prominence plasma circulation is characterized by the dynamic balance between the drainage of prominence plasma back to the chromosphere and the formation of prominence plasma via continuous condensation. Plasma evaporates from the chromosphere, condenses into the prominence in the corona, and drains back to the chromosphere, establishing a stable chromosphere-corona plasma cycle. Another form of cool and dense plasma in the corona is coronal rain, which forms in-situ and drain down arched pathways along loops near active regions. We present 3D simulations of coronal rain in a bipolar arcade and compare it with observational results.

An Overview of the NASA Energy and Water cycle Study (NEWS) and the North American Water Program (NAWP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houser, P. R.

2014-12-01

NEWS: 10 years ago, NASA established the NASA Energy and Water-cycle Study (NEWS), whose long-term grand challenge is to document and enable improved, observationally based, predictions of water and energy cycle consequences of Earth system variability and change. The NEWS program builds upon existing NASA-supported basic research in atmospheric physics and dynamics, radiation, climate modeling, and terrestrial hydrology. While these NASA programs fund research activities that address individual aspects of the global energy and water cycles, they are not specifically designed to generate a coordinated result. NEWS developed the first coordinated attempt to describe the complete global energy and water cycle using existing and forthcoming satellite and ground based observations, and laying the foundation for essential NEWS developments in model representations of atmospheric energy and water exchange processes. This comprehensive energy and water data analysis program exploited crucial datasets, some requiring complete re-processing, and new satellite measurements. NAWP: Dramatically changing climates has had an indelible impact on North America's water crisis. To decisively address these challenges, we recommend that NAWP coalesce an interdisciplinary, international and interagency effort to make significant contributions to continental- to decision-scale hydroclimate science and solutions. By entraining, integrating and coordinating the vast array of interdisciplinary observational and prediction resources available, NAWP will significantly advance skill in predicting, assessing and managing variability and changes in North American water resources. We adopt three challenges to organize NAWP efforts. The first deals with developing a scientific basis and tools for mitigating and adapting to changes in the water supply-demand balance. The second challenge is benchmarking; to use incomplete and uncertain observations to assess water storage and quality dynamics, and to characterize the information content of water cycle predictions in a way that allows for model improvement. The final challenge is to establish clear pathways to inform water managers, practitioners and decision makers about newly developed tools, observations and research results.

Diversified models for portfolio selection based on uncertain semivariance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lin; Peng, Jin; Zhang, Bo; Rosyida, Isnaini

2017-02-01

Since the financial markets are complex, sometimes the future security returns are represented mainly based on experts' estimations due to lack of historical data. This paper proposes a semivariance method for diversified portfolio selection, in which the security returns are given subjective to experts' estimations and depicted as uncertain variables. In the paper, three properties of the semivariance of uncertain variables are verified. Based on the concept of semivariance of uncertain variables, two types of mean-semivariance diversified models for uncertain portfolio selection are proposed. Since the models are complex, a hybrid intelligent algorithm which is based on 99-method and genetic algorithm is designed to solve the models. In this hybrid intelligent algorithm, 99-method is applied to compute the expected value and semivariance of uncertain variables, and genetic algorithm is employed to seek the best allocation plan for portfolio selection. At last, several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the modelling idea and the effectiveness of the algorithm.

The impact of uncertain threat on affective bias: Individual differences in response to ambiguity.

PubMed

Neta, Maital; Cantelon, Julie; Haga, Zachary; Mahoney, Caroline R; Taylor, Holly A; Davis, F Caroline

2017-12-01

Individuals who operate under highly stressful conditions (e.g., military personnel and first responders) are often faced with the challenge of quickly interpreting ambiguous information in uncertain and threatening environments. When faced with ambiguity, it is likely adaptive to view potentially dangerous stimuli as threatening until contextual information proves otherwise. One laboratory-based paradigm that can be used to simulate uncertain threat is known as threat of shock (TOS), in which participants are told that they might receive mild but unpredictable electric shocks while performing an unrelated task. The uncertainty associated with this potential threat induces a state of emotional arousal that is not overwhelmingly stressful, but has widespread-both adaptive and maladaptive-effects on cognitive and affective function. For example, TOS is thought to enhance aversive processing and abolish positivity bias. Importantly, in certain situations (e.g., when walking home alone at night), this anxiety can promote an adaptive state of heightened vigilance and defense mobilization. In the present study, we used TOS to examine the effects of uncertain threat on valence bias, or the tendency to interpret ambiguous social cues as positive or negative. As predicted, we found that heightened emotional arousal elicited by TOS was associated with an increased tendency to interpret ambiguous cues negatively. Such negative interpretations are likely adaptive in situations in which threat detection is critical for survival and should override an individual's tendency to interpret ambiguity positively in safe contexts. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Sustainability Based Decision Making

EPA Science Inventory

With sustainability as the “true north” for EPA research, a premium is placed on the ability to make decisions under highly complex and uncertain conditions. The primary challenge is reconciling disparate criteria toward credible and defensible decisions. Making decisions on on...

Nitrogen Alters Fungal Communities in Boreal Forest Soil: Implications for Carbon Cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allison, S. D.; Treseder, K. K.

2005-12-01

One potential effect of climate change in high latitude ecosystems is to increase soil nutrient availability. In particular, greater nitrogen availability could impact decomposer communities and lead to altered rates of soil carbon cycling. Since fungi are the primary decomposers in many high-latitude ecosystems, we used molecular techniques and field surveys to test whether fungal communities and abundances differed in response to nitrogen fertilization in a boreal forest ecosystem. We predicted that fungi that degrade recalcitrant carbon would decline under nitrogen fertilization, while fungi that degrade labile carbon would increase, leading to no net change in rates of soil carbon mineralization. The molecular data showed that basidiomycete fungi dominate the active fungal community in both fertilized and unfertilized soils. However, we found that fertilization reduced peak mushroom biomass by 79%, although most of the responsive fungi were ectomycorrhizal and therefore their capacity to degrade soil carbon is uncertain. Fertilization increased the activity of the cellulose-degrading enzyme beta-glucosidase by 78%, while protease activity declined by 39% and polyphenol oxidase, a lignin-degrading enzyme, did not respond. Rates of soil respiration did not change in response to fertilization. These results suggest that increased nitrogen availability does alter the composition of the fungal community, and its potential to degrade different carbon compounds. However, these differences do not affect the total flux of CO2 from the soil, even though the contribution to CO2 respiration from different carbon pools may vary with fertilization. We conclude that in the short term, increased nitrogen availability due to climate warming or nitrogen deposition is more likely to alter the turnover of individual carbon pools rather than total carbon fluxes from the soil. Future work should determine if changes in fungal community structure and associated differences in substrate utilization will also affect total carbon fluxes over longer time scales.

Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States - Climatic and geologic framework: Chapter A in Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States (Professional Paper 1703)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stonestrom, David A.; Harrill, James R.; Stonestrom, David A.; Constantz, Jim; Ferré, Ty P.A.; Leake, Stanley A.

2007-01-01

Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States results from the complex interplay of climate, geology, and vegetation across widely ranging spatial and temporal scales. Present-day recharge tends to be narrowly focused in time and space. Widespread water-table declines accompanied agricultural development during the twentieth century, demonstrating that sustainable ground-water supplies are not guaranteed when part of the extracted resource represents paleorecharge. Climatic controls on ground-water recharge range from seasonal cycles of summer monsoonal and winter frontal storms to multimillennial cycles of glacial and interglacial periods. Precipitation patterns reflect global-scale interactions among the oceans, atmosphere, and continents. Large-scale climatic influences associated with El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillations strongly but irregularly control weather in the study area, so that year-to-year variations in precipitation and ground-water recharge are large and difficult to predict. Proxy data indicate geologically recent periods of multidecadal droughts unlike any in the modern instrumental record. Anthropogenically induced climate change likely will reduce ground-water recharge through diminished snowpack at higher elevations, and perhaps through increased drought. Future changes in El Niño and monsoonal patterns, both crucial to precipitation in the study area, are highly uncertain in current models. Land-use modifications influence ground-water recharge directly through vegetation, irrigation, and impermeable area, and indirectly through climate change. High ranges bounding the study area—the San Bernadino Mountains and Sierra Nevada to the west, and the Wasatch and southern Colorado Rocky Mountains to the east—provide external geologic controls on ground-water recharge. Internal geologic controls stem from tectonic processes that led to numerous, variably connected alluvial-filled basins, exposure of extensive Paleozoic aquifers in mountainous recharge areas, and distinct modes of recharge in the Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range subregions.

Drilling a crater at the Equator-insides from ICDP DeepCHALLA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Inka; Van Daele, Maarten; Tanghe, Niels; Eloy, Jonas; Verschuren, Dirk; De Batist, Marc

2017-04-01

Long and continuous sediment records from equatorial Africa are rare, resulting in a so far fragmentary understanding of the effects of a warming atmosphere on the tropical hydrological cycle at the regional scale. Serve and recurrent droughts is the principle weather-related hazard throughout sub-Saharan Africa, and the quality of long-term weather prediction a principle bottleneck hampering drought mitigation and adaptation. The impact of 21st-century anthropogenic climate change on the African rainfall is highly uncertain, implying unforeseeable effects on freshwater resources. During the "CHALLACEA" project (2005-2008) detailed investigations of Lake Challa, a relatively small and deep crater lake on the border between Kenya and Tanzania, revealed the lake is a key site for reconstructing the climate and environmental history of equatorial East Africa. Various biological, bio-geochemical and sedimentological investigations of the 22 long CHALLACEA-core helped to understand the systematics of Lake Challa under present-day conditions as well as to reconstruct environmental changes over the past 25,000 years. Due to the good quality of the Lake Challa sediment and the high scientific outcome of the record, a new International Continental Scientific Drilling Programme (ICDP) project "DeepCHALLA" was established to drill a longer sediment record, going further back in time. During the drilling campaign in November 2016 a 215 m long sediment sequence was obtained which will provide unique information about environmental changes in low-latitudes over a complete glacial - interglacial cycle. Therefore, the record opens new opportunities to study East African environmental changes and paleo-hydrological conditions much further back in time, encompassing the entire known existence of modern humans (Homo sapiens) in East Africa. Here we present a compilation of the environmental reconstructions based on the CHALLACEA sediment sequence and will give an outline of future work on the DeepCHALLA record.

Lessons learned using different mouse models during space radiation-induced lung tumorigenesis experiments.

PubMed

Wang, Jian; Zhang, Xiangming; Wang, Ping; Wang, Xiang; Farris, Alton B; Wang, Ya

2016-06-01

Unlike terrestrial ionizing radiation, space radiation, especially galactic cosmic rays (GCR), contains high energy charged (HZE) particles with high linear energy transfer (LET). Due to a lack of epidemiologic data for high-LET radiation exposure, it is highly uncertain how high the carcinogenesis risk is for astronauts following exposure to space radiation during space missions. Therefore, using mouse models is necessary to evaluate the risk of space radiation-induced tumorigenesis; however, which mouse model is better for these studies remains uncertain. Since lung tumorigenesis is the leading cause of cancer death among both men and women, and low-LET radiation exposure increases human lung carcinogenesis, evaluating space radiation-induced lung tumorigenesis is critical to enable safe Mars missions. Here, by comparing lung tumorigenesis obtained from different mouse strains, as well as miR-21 in lung tissue/tumors and serum, we believe that wild type mice with a low spontaneous tumorigenesis background are ideal for evaluating the risk of space radiation-induced lung tumorigenesis, and circulating miR-21 from such mice model might be used as a biomarker for predicting the risk. Copyright © 2016 The Committee on Space Research (COSPAR). Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

75 FR 60371 - Requirements of a Statement Disclosing Uncertain Tax Positions; Correction

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-30

... Requirements of a Statement Disclosing Uncertain Tax Positions; Correction AGENCY: Internal Revenue Service... the IRS to require corporations to file a schedule disclosing uncertain tax positions related to the tax return as required by the IRS. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Kathryn Zuba, (202) 622-3400 (not...

Uncertain Times 2012: Afterschool Programs Still Struggling in Today's Economy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Afterschool Alliance, 2012

2012-01-01

"Uncertain Times 2012," conducted by the Afterschool Alliance between April 25 and June 8, 2012, assesses the impact of economic conditions on afterschool programs. While many studies have evaluated the impact of programs, "Uncertain Times" is the only research to examine the fiscal health of afterschool programs and their…

Alcohol's effects on emotionally motivated attention, defensive reactivity and subjective anxiety during uncertain threats.

PubMed

Bradford, Daniel E; Motschman, Courtney A; Starr, Mark J; Curtin, John J

2017-11-01

Developing a better understanding of how and under what circumstances alcohol affects the emotions, cognitions and neural functions that precede and contribute to dangerous behaviors during intoxication may help to reduce their occurrence. Alcohol intoxication has recently been shown to reduce defensive reactivity and anxiety more during uncertain vs certain threat. However, alcohol's effects on emotionally motivated attention to these threats are unknown. Alcohol may disrupt both affective response to and attentional processing of uncertain threats making intoxicated individuals less able to avoid dangerous and costly behaviors. To test this possibility, we examined the effects of a broad range of blood alcohol concentrations on 96 participants' sub-cortically mediated defensive reactivity (startle potentiation), retrospective subjective anxiety (self-report) and cortically assessed emotionally motivated attention (probe P3 event related potential) while they experienced visually cued uncertain and certain location electric shock threat. As predicted, alcohol decreased defensive reactivity and subjective anxiety more during uncertain vs certain threat. In a novel finding, alcohol dampened emotionally motivated attention during uncertain but not certain threat. This effect appeared independent of alcohol's effects on defensive reactivity and subjective anxiety. These results suggest that alcohol intoxication dampens processing of uncertain threats while leaving processing of certain threats intact. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press.

Polar Polygons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

26 December 2003 This Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) picture displays polygons outlined by cracks in the martian south polar region. This southern summer view was acquired in October 2003 and is located near 86.9oS, 170.6oW. Polygons similar in size and shape to these are common in the arctic and antarctic regions of Earth. On Earth, they indicate the presence (or the past presence) of ground ice and the freeze-thaw cycles that accompany this ice. On Mars, whether ground ice was responsible for these landforms is uncertain, but their presence is suggestive that ground ice may exist or may once have existed in this region. The picture covers an area 3 km (1.9 mi) wide. Sunlight illuminates the scene from the upper left.

Irregular or absent periods--what can an ultrasound scan tell you?

PubMed

Khalid, Asma

2004-02-01

Transvaginal ultrasonography has increased our appreciation of the physiological changes in the ovary and endometrium that occur during the normal menstrual cycle. It has become a primary investigative tool in women with irregular or absent periods. Its usefulness in cases of primary amenorrhoea to assess anatomy is also undisputed although it may have limitations in terms of its specificity. However, the interpretation of ultrasound images in women with irregular menses or secondary amenorrhoea is not entirely straightforward. This is particularly true in the diagnosis of polycystic ovary syndrome, a condition of uncertain aetiology, which may present with oligoamenorrhoea. This chapter aims to discuss the benefits and limitations of ultrasound while taking into account the broad overlap between normal and abnormal physiology, some of which has still to be elucidated.

21 CFR 20.47 - Situations in which confidentiality is uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... submitted or divulged the data or information or who would be affected by disclosure before determining whether or not such data or information is available for public disclosure. [42 FR 15616, Mar. 22, 1977... uncertain. In situations where the confidentiality of data or information is uncertain and there is a...

21 CFR 20.47 - Situations in which confidentiality is uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... submitted or divulged the data or information or who would be affected by disclosure before determining whether or not such data or information is available for public disclosure. [42 FR 15616, Mar. 22, 1977... uncertain. In situations where the confidentiality of data or information is uncertain and there is a...

21 CFR 20.47 - Situations in which confidentiality is uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... submitted or divulged the data or information or who would be affected by disclosure before determining whether or not such data or information is available for public disclosure. [42 FR 15616, Mar. 22, 1977... uncertain. In situations where the confidentiality of data or information is uncertain and there is a...

21 CFR 20.47 - Situations in which confidentiality is uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... submitted or divulged the data or information or who would be affected by disclosure before determining whether or not such data or information is available for public disclosure. [42 FR 15616, Mar. 22, 1977... uncertain. In situations where the confidentiality of data or information is uncertain and there is a...

21 CFR 20.47 - Situations in which confidentiality is uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... submitted or divulged the data or information or who would be affected by disclosure before determining whether or not such data or information is available for public disclosure. [42 FR 15616, Mar. 22, 1977... uncertain. In situations where the confidentiality of data or information is uncertain and there is a...

Millennial Teachers and Multiculturalism: Considerations for Teaching in Uncertain Times

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hallman, Heidi L.

2017-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims to explore the intersection of generational traits of millennial teachers, multiculturalism and teaching in an era of Uncertain Times. Uncertain Times, as a framework for the paper, characterizes changing aspects of the current era in which we live, such as the rise of the internet and interconnectivity, globalization and…

Why Is Improvement of Earth System Models so Elusive? Challenges and Strategies from Dust Aerosol Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Ronald L.; Garcia-Pando, Carlos Perez; Perlwitz, Jan; Ginoux, Paul

2015-01-01

Past decades have seen an accelerating increase in computing efficiency, while climate models are representing a rapidly widening set of physical processes. Yet simulations of some fundamental aspects of climate like precipitation or aerosol forcing remain highly uncertain and resistant to progress. Dust aerosol modeling of soil particles lofted by wind erosion has seen a similar conflict between increasing model sophistication and remaining uncertainty. Dust aerosols perturb the energy and water cycles by scattering radiation and acting as ice nuclei, while mediating atmospheric chemistry and marine photosynthesis (and thus the carbon cycle). These effects take place across scales from the dimensions of an ice crystal to the planetary-scale circulation that disperses dust far downwind of its parent soil. Representing this range leads to several modeling challenges. Should we limit complexity in our model, which consumes computer resources and inhibits interpretation? How do we decide if a process involving dust is worthy of inclusion within our model? Can we identify a minimal representation of a complex process that is efficient yet retains the physics relevant to climate? Answering these questions about the appropriate degree of representation is guided by model evaluation, which presents several more challenges. How do we proceed if the available observations do not directly constrain our process of interest? (This could result from competing processes that influence the observed variable and obscure the signature of our process of interest.) Examples will be presented from dust modeling, with lessons that might be more broadly applicable. The end result will either be clinical depression or there assuring promise of continued gainful employment as the community confronts these challenges.

V473 Lyr, a modulated, period-doubled Cepheid, and U TrA, a double-mode Cepheid, observed by MOST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molnár, L.; Derekas, A.; Szabó, R.; Matthews, J. M.; Cameron, C.; Moffat, A. F. J.; Richardson, N. D.; Csák, B.; Dózsa, Á.; Reed, P.; Szabados, L.; Heathcote, B.; Bohlsen, T.; Cacella, P.; Luckas, P.; Sódor, Á.; Skarka, M.; Szabó, Gy. M.; Plachy, E.; Kovács, J.; Evans, N. R.; Kolenberg, K.; Collins, K. A.; Pepper, J.; Stassun, K. G.; Rodriguez, J. E.; Siverd, R. J.; Henden, A.; Mankiewicz, L.; Żarnecki, A. F.; Cwiek, A.; Sokolowski, M.; Pál, A.; Guenther, D. B.; Kuschnig, R.; Rowe, J.; Rucinski, S. M.; Sasselov, D.; Weiss, W. W.

2017-04-01

Space-based photometric measurements first revealed low-amplitude irregularities in the pulsations of Cepheid stars, but their origins and how commonly they occur remain uncertain. To investigate this phenomenon, we present MOST space telescope photometry of two Cepheids. V473 Lyrae is a second-overtone, strongly modulated Cepheid, while U Trianguli Australis is a Cepheid pulsating simultaneously in the fundamental mode and first overtone. The nearly continuous, high-precision photometry reveals alternations in the amplitudes of cycles in V473 Lyr, the first case of period doubling detected in a classical Cepheid. In U TrA, we tentatively identify one peak as the fX or 0.61-type mode often seen in conjunction with the first radial overtone in Cepheids, but given the short length of the data, we cannot rule out that it is a combination peak instead. Ground-based photometry and spectroscopy were obtained to follow two modulation cycles in V473 Lyr and to better specify its physical parameters. The simultaneous data yield the phase lag parameter (the phase difference between maxima in luminosity and radial velocity) of a second-overtone Cepheid for the first time. We find no evidence for a period change in U TrA or an energy exchange between the fundamental mode and the first overtone during the last 50 yr, contrary to earlier indications. Period doubling in V473 Lyr provides a strong argument that mode interactions do occur in some Cepheids and we may hypothesize that it could be behind the amplitude modulation, as recently proposed for Blazhko RR Lyrae stars.

Circumferential and functional re-entry of in vivo slow-wave activity in the porcine small intestine.

PubMed

Angeli, T R; O'Grady, G; Du, P; Paskaranandavadivel, N; Pullan, A J; Bissett, I P; Cheng, L K

2013-05-01

Slow-waves modulate the pattern of small intestine contractions. However, the large-scale spatial organization of intestinal slow-wave pacesetting remains uncertain because most previous studies have had limited resolution. This study applied high-resolution (HR) mapping to evaluate intestinal pacesetting mechanisms and propagation patterns in vivo. HR serosal mapping was performed in anesthetized pigs using flexible arrays (256 electrodes; 32 × 8; 4 mm spacing), applied along the jejunum. Slow-wave propagation patterns, frequencies, and velocities were calculated. Slow-wave initiation sources were identified and analyzed by animation and isochronal activation mapping. Analysis comprised 32 recordings from nine pigs (mean duration 5.1 ± 3.9 min). Slow-wave propagation was analyzed, and a total of 26 sources of slow-wave initiation were observed and classified as focal pacemakers (31%), sites of functional re-entry (23%) and circumferential re-entry (35%), or indeterminate sources (11%). The mean frequencies of circumferential and functional re-entry were similar (17.0 ± 0.3 vs 17.2 ± 0.4 cycle min(-1) ; P = 0.5), and greater than that of focal pacemakers (12.7 ± 0.8 cycle min(-1) ; P < 0.001). Velocity was anisotropic (12.9 ± 0.7 mm s(-1) circumferential vs 9.0 ± 0.7 mm s(-1) longitudinal; P < 0.05), contributing to the onset and maintenance of re-entry. This study has shown multiple patterns of slow-wave initiation in the jejunum of anesthetized pigs. These results constitute the first description and analysis of circumferential re-entry in the gastrointestinal tract and functional re-entry in the in vivo small intestine. Re-entry can control the direction, pattern, and frequency of slow-wave propagation, and its occurrence and functional significance merit further investigation. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Petascale Diagnostic Assessment of the Global Portfolio Rainfall Space Missions' Ability to Support Flood Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, P. M.; Chaney, N.; Herman, J. D.; Wood, E. F.; Ferringer, M. P.

2015-12-01

This research represents a multi-institutional collaboration between Cornell University, The Aerospace Corporation, and Princeton University that has completed a Petascale diagnostic assessment of the current 10 satellite missions providing rainfall observations. Our diagnostic assessment has required four core tasks: (1) formally linking high-resolution astrodynamics design and coordination of space assets with their global hydrological impacts within a Petascale "many-objective" global optimization framework, (2) developing a baseline diagnostic evaluation of a 1-degree resolution global implementation of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to establish the required satellite observation frequencies and coverage to maintain acceptable global flood forecasts, (3) evaluating the limitations and vulnerabilities of the full suite of current satellite precipitation missions including the recently approved Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, and (4) conceptualizing the next generation spaced-based platforms for water cycle observation. Our team exploited over 100 Million hours of computing access on the 700,000+ core Blue Waters machine to radically advance our ability to discover and visualize key system tradeoffs and sensitivities. This project represents to our knowledge the first attempt to develop a 10,000 member Monte Carlo global hydrologic simulation at one degree resolution that characterizes the uncertain effects of changing the available frequencies of satellite precipitation on drought and flood forecasts. The simulation—optimization components of the work have set a theoretical baseline for the best possible frequencies and coverages for global precipitation given unlimited investment, broad international coordination in reconfiguring existing assets, and new satellite constellation design objectives informed directly by key global hydrologic forecasting requirements. Our research poses a step towards realizing the integrated global water cycle observatory long sought by the World Climate Research Programme, which has to date eluded the world's space agencies.

Evaluation and management of premenstrual syndrome and premenstrual dysphoric disorder.

PubMed

Frackiewicz, E J; Shiovitz, T M

2001-01-01

To review premenstrual disorders, their varied symptoms, possible etiology, and treatment options. Published articles identified through MEDLINE (1966-2001) using the search terms premenstrual syndrome (PMS) and premenstrual dysphoric disorder (PMDD) and the additional terms treatment and etiology. Additional references were identified from the bibliographies of the retrieved articles. PMS refers to a group of menstrually related disorders that are estimated to affect up to 40% of women of childbearing age. The varied symptoms of PMS include mood swings, tension, anger, irritability, headache, bloating, and increased appetite with food cravings. PMS symptoms occur during the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle and remit with the onset of menstruation or shortly afterward. Approximately 5% of women with PMS suffer from PMDD, a more disabling and severe form of PMS in which mood symptoms predominate. Because no tests can confirm PMS or PMDD, the diagnosis should be made on the basis of a patient-completed daily symptom calendar and the exclusion of other medical disorders. The causes of PMS and PMDD are uncertain, but are likely associated with aberrant responses to normal hormonal fluctuations during the menstrual cycle. For most women, symptoms can be relieved or reduced through lifestyle interventions, such as dietary changes and exercise, and drug therapy with hormonal or psychotropic agents. For PMDD, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors have recently emerged as first-line therapy. Certain dietary supplements, including calcium, also may be an option for some women. PMS and PMDD are complex but highly treatable disorders. Pharmacists can improve the recognition and management of these common conditions by providing patient education on premenstrual symptoms and counseling women on lifestyle interventions and pharmacotherapy to relieve their discomfort.

Improve SSME power balance model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karr, Gerald R.

1992-01-01

Effort was dedicated to development and testing of a formal strategy for reconciling uncertain test data with physically limited computational prediction. Specific weaknesses in the logical structure of the current Power Balance Model (PBM) version are described with emphasis given to the main routing subroutines BAL and DATRED. Selected results from a variational analysis of PBM predictions are compared to Technology Test Bed (TTB) variational study results to assess PBM predictive capability. The motivation for systematic integration of uncertain test data with computational predictions based on limited physical models is provided. The theoretical foundation for the reconciliation strategy developed in this effort is presented, and results of a reconciliation analysis of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) high pressure fuel side turbopump subsystem are examined.

Hemispheric Differences in Tropical Lower Stratospheric Transport and Tracers Annual Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tweedy, Olga; Waugh, D.; Stolarski, R.; Oman, L.

2016-01-01

Transport of long-lived tracers (such as O, CO, and N O) in the lower stratosphere largely determines the composition of the entire stratosphere. Stratospheric transport includes the mean residual circulation (with air rising in the tropics and sinking in the polar and middle latitudes), plus two-way isentropic (quasi-horizontal) mixing by eddies. However, the relative importance of two transport components remains uncertain. Previous studies quantified the relative role of these processes based on tropics-wide average characteristics under common assumption of well-mixed tropics. However, multiple instruments provide us with evidence that show significant differences in the seasonal cycle of ozone between the Northern (0-20N) and Southern (0-20S) tropical (NT and ST respectively) lower stratosphere. In this study we investigate these differences in tracer seasonality and quantify transport processes affecting tracers annual cycle amplitude using simulations from Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM) and Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and compare them to observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite. We detect the observed contrast between the ST and NT in GEOSCCM and WACCM: annual cycle in ozone and other chemical tracers is larger in the NT than in the ST but opposite is true for the annual cycle in vertical advection. Ozone budgets in the models, analyzed based on the Transformed Eulerian Mean (TEM) framework, demonstrate a major role of quasi-horizontal mixing vertical advection in determining the NTST ozone distribution and behavior. Analysis of zonal variations in the NT and ST ozone annual cycles further suggests important role of North American and Asian Summer Monsoons (associated with strong isentropic mixing) on the lower stratospheric ozone in the NT. Furthermore, multi model comparison shows that most CCMs reproduce the observed characteristic of ozone annual cycle quite well. Thus, latitudinal variations within the tropics have to be considered in order to understand the balance between upwelling and quasi- horizontal mixing in the tropical lower stratosphere and the paradigm of well mixed tropics has to be reconsidered.

Abrupt shifts in ecosystem function and intensification of global biogeochemical cycle driven by hydroclimatic extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Xuanlong; Huete, Alfredo; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo; Zhang, Yongguang; Xie, Zunyi; Giovannini, Leandro; Cleverly, James; Eamus, Derek

2016-04-01

Amplification of the hydrologic cycle as a consequence of global warming is increasing the frequency, intensity, and spatial extent of extreme climate events globally. The potential influences resulting from amplification of the hydro-climatic cycle, coupled with an accelerating warming trend, pose great concerns on the sustainability of terrestrial ecosystems to sequester carbon, maintain biodiversity, provide ecosystem services, food security, and support human livelihood. Despite the great implications, the magnitude, direction, and carry-over effect of these extreme climate events on ecosystem function, remain largely uncertain. To address these pressing issues, we conducted an observational, interdisciplinary study using satellite retrievals of atmospheric CO2 and photosynthesis (chlorophyll fluorescence), and in-situ flux tower measures of ecosystem-atmosphere carbon exchange, to reveal the shifts in ecosystem function across extreme drought and wet periods. We further determine the factors that govern ecosystem sensitivity to hydroclimatic extremes. We focus on Australia but extended our analyses to other global dryland regions due to their significant role in global biogeochemical cycles. Our results revealed dramatic impacts of drought and wet hydroclimatic extremes on ecosystem function, with abrupt changes in vegetation productivity, carbon uptake, and water-use-efficiency between years. Drought resulted in widespread reductions or collapse in the normal patterns of vegetation growth seasonality such that in many cases there was no detectable phenological cycle during extreme drought years. We further identified a significant increasing trend (p < 0.001) in extreme wet year precipitation amounts over Australia and many other global regions, resulting in an increasing trend in magnitude of the episodic carbon sink pulses coupled to each La Niña-induced wet years. This finding is of global biogeochemical significance, with the consequence of amplifying the global carbon cycle. Lastly, we use landscape measurements of carbon and water fluxes from eddy-covariance towers and field sampling of aboveground net primary productivity from long-term ecological networks to verify the patterns observed by top-down approaches. Our results demonstrate the intensification of hydroclimatic extremes due to global warming is exerting important impacts on ecosystem function, which further have significant implications on global biogeochemical cycles as well as local ecosystem processes.

Zoology: Invertebrates that Parasitize Invertebrates.

PubMed

Giribet, Gonzalo

2016-07-11

The genome of an orthonectid, a group of highly modified parasitic invertebrates, is drastically reduced and compact, yet it shows the bilaterian gene toolkit. Phylogenetic analyses place the enigmatic orthonectids within Spiralia, although their exact placement remains uncertain. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecohydrology of adjacent sagebrush and lodgepole pine ecosystems: the consequences of climate change and disturbance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradford, John B.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Lauenroth, William K.

2014-01-01

Sagebrush steppe and lodgepole pine forests are two of the most widespread vegetation types in the western United States and they play crucial roles in the hydrologic cycle of these water-limited regions. We used a process-based ecosystem water model to characterize the potential impact of climate change and disturbance (wildfire and beetle mortality) on water cycling in adjacent sagebrush and lodgepole pine ecosystems. Despite similar climatic and topographic conditions between these ecosystems at the sites examined, lodgepole pine, and sagebrush exhibited consistent differences in water balance, notably more evaporation and drier summer soils in the sagebrush and greater transpiration and less water yield in lodgepole pine. Canopy disturbances (either fire or beetle) have dramatic impacts on water balance and availability: reducing transpiration while increasing evaporation and water yield. Results suggest that climate change may reduce snowpack, increase evaporation and transpiration, and lengthen the duration of dry soil conditions in the summer, but may have uncertain effects on drainage. Changes in the distribution of sagebrush and lodgepole pine ecosystems as a consequence of climate change and/or altered disturbance regimes will likely alter ecosystem water balance.

Midweek Intensification of Rain in the U.S.: Does Air Pollution Invigorate Storms?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, T. L.; Rosenfeld, D.; Hahnenberger, M.

2005-01-01

The effect of pollution on rainfall has been observed to depend both on the type of pollution and the precipitating environment. The climatological consequences of pollution for rainfall are uncertain. In some urban areas, pollution varies with the day of the week because of weekly variations in human activity, in effect providing a repeated experiment on the effects of pollution. Weekly variations in temperature, pressure, cloud characteristics, hails and lightning are observed in many areas. Observing a weekly cycle in rainfall statistics has proven to be more difficult, although there is some evidence for it. Here we examine rainfall statistics from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite over the southern U.S. and adjacent waters, and find that there is a distinct, statistically significant weekly cycle in summertime rainfall over the southeast U.S., as well as weekly variations in rainfall over the nearby Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall over land peaks in the middle of the week, suggesting that summer rainfall on large scales may increase as pollution levels rise. Both rain statistics over land and what appear to be compensating effects over adjacent seas support the suggestion that air pollution invigorates convection and outflow aloft.

The changing nature of life cycle assessment

PubMed Central

McManus, Marcelle C.; Taylor, Caroline M.

2015-01-01

LCA has evolved from its origins in energy analysis in the 1960s and 70s into a wide ranging tool used to determine impacts of products or systems over several environmental and resource issues. The approach has become more prevalent in research, industry and policy. Its use continues to expand as it seeks to encompass impacts as diverse as resource accounting and social well being. Carbon policy for bioenergy has driven many of these changes. Enabling assessment of complex issues over a life cycle basis is beneficial, but the process is sometimes difficult. LCA's use in framing is increasingly complex and more uncertain, and in some cases, irreconcilable. The charged environment surrounding biofuels and bioenergy exacerbates all of these. Reaching its full potential to help guide difficult policy discussions and emerging research involves successfully managing LCA's transition from attributional to consequential and from retrospective to prospective. This paper examines LCA's on-going evolution and its use within bioenergy deployment. The management of methodological growth in the context of the unique challenges associated with bioenergy and biofuels is explored. Changes seen in bioenergy LCA will bleed into other LCA arenas, especially where it is important that a sustainable solution is chosen. PMID:26664146

Surrogate-based optimization of hydraulic fracturing in pre-existing fracture networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Mingjie; Sun, Yunwei; Fu, Pengcheng; Carrigan, Charles R.; Lu, Zhiming; Tong, Charles H.; Buscheck, Thomas A.

2013-08-01

Hydraulic fracturing has been used widely to stimulate production of oil, natural gas, and geothermal energy in formations with low natural permeability. Numerical optimization of fracture stimulation often requires a large number of evaluations of objective functions and constraints from forward hydraulic fracturing models, which are computationally expensive and even prohibitive in some situations. Moreover, there are a variety of uncertainties associated with the pre-existing fracture distributions and rock mechanical properties, which affect the optimized decisions for hydraulic fracturing. In this study, a surrogate-based approach is developed for efficient optimization of hydraulic fracturing well design in the presence of natural-system uncertainties. The fractal dimension is derived from the simulated fracturing network as the objective for maximizing energy recovery sweep efficiency. The surrogate model, which is constructed using training data from high-fidelity fracturing models for mapping the relationship between uncertain input parameters and the fractal dimension, provides fast approximation of the objective functions and constraints. A suite of surrogate models constructed using different fitting methods is evaluated and validated for fast predictions. Global sensitivity analysis is conducted to gain insights into the impact of the input variables on the output of interest, and further used for parameter screening. The high efficiency of the surrogate-based approach is demonstrated for three optimization scenarios with different and uncertain ambient conditions. Our results suggest the critical importance of considering uncertain pre-existing fracture networks in optimization studies of hydraulic fracturing.

40 CFR 725.15 - Determining applicability when microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. 725.15 Section 725.15 Protection of Environment... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. (a) Consulting EPA. Persons intending to conduct... on the Inventory, in § 725.239 or in subpart M of this part. (1) Confidential identity or use. In...

40 CFR 725.15 - Determining applicability when microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. 725.15 Section 725.15 Protection of Environment... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. (a) Consulting EPA. Persons intending to conduct... on the Inventory, in § 725.239 or in subpart M of this part. (1) Confidential identity or use. In...

40 CFR 725.15 - Determining applicability when microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. 725.15 Section 725.15 Protection of Environment... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. (a) Consulting EPA. Persons intending to conduct... on the Inventory, in § 725.239 or in subpart M of this part. (1) Confidential identity or use. In...

40 CFR 725.15 - Determining applicability when microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. 725.15 Section 725.15 Protection of Environment... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. (a) Consulting EPA. Persons intending to conduct... on the Inventory, in § 725.239 or in subpart M of this part. (1) Confidential identity or use. In...

40 CFR 725.15 - Determining applicability when microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. 725.15 Section 725.15 Protection of Environment... microorganism identity or use is confidential or uncertain. (a) Consulting EPA. Persons intending to conduct... on the Inventory, in § 725.239 or in subpart M of this part. (1) Confidential identity or use. In...

Blazar flaring patterns (B-FlaP) classifying blazar candidate of uncertain type in the third Fermi-LAT catalogue by artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiaro, G.; Salvetti, D.; La Mura, G.; Giroletti, M.; Thompson, D. J.; Bastieri, D.

2016-11-01

The Fermi-Large Area Telescope (LAT) is currently the most important facility for investigating the GeV γ-ray sky. With Fermi-LAT, more than three thousand γ-ray sources have been discovered so far. 1144 (˜40 per cent) of the sources are active galaxies of the blazar class, and 573 (˜20 per cent) are listed as blazar candidate of uncertain type (BCU), or sources without a conclusive classification. We use the empirical cumulative distribution functions and the artificial neural networks for a fast method of screening and classification for BCUs based on data collected at γ-ray energies only, when rigorous multiwavelength analysis is not available. Based on our method, we classify 342 BCUs as BL Lacs and 154 as flat-spectrum radio quasars, while 77 objects remain uncertain. Moreover, radio analysis and direct observations in ground-based optical observatories are used as counterparts to the statistical classifications to validate the method. This approach is of interest because of the increasing number of unclassified sources in Fermi catalogues and because blazars and in particular their subclass high synchrotron peak objects are the main targets of atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes.

The locus of word frequency effects in skilled spelling-to-dictation.

PubMed

Chua, Shi Min; Liow, Susan J Rickard

2014-01-01

In spelling-to-dictation tasks, skilled spellers consistently initiate spelling of high-frequency words faster than that of low-frequency words. Tainturier and Rapp's model of spelling shows three possible loci for this frequency effect: spoken word recognition, orthographic retrieval, and response execution of the first letter. Thus far, researchers have attributed the effect solely to orthographic retrieval without considering spoken word recognition or response execution. To investigate word frequency effects at each of these three loci, Experiment 1 involved a delayed spelling-to-dictation task and Experiment 2 involved a delayed/uncertain task. In Experiment 1, no frequency effect was found in the 1200-ms delayed condition, suggesting that response execution is not affected by word frequency. In Experiment 2, no frequency effect was found in the delayed/uncertain task that reflects the orthographic retrieval, whereas a frequency effect was found in the comparison immediate/uncertain task that reflects both spoken word recognition and orthographic retrieval. The results of this two-part study suggest that frequency effects in spoken word recognition play a substantial role in skilled spelling-to-dictation. Discrepancies between these findings and previous research, and the limitations of the present study, are discussed.

Robust optimization modelling with applications to industry and environmental problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaerani, Diah; Dewanto, Stanley P.; Lesmana, Eman

2017-10-01

Robust Optimization (RO) modeling is one of the existing methodology for handling data uncertainty in optimization problem. The main challenge in this RO methodology is how and when we can reformulate the robust counterpart of uncertain problems as a computationally tractable optimization problem or at least approximate the robust counterpart by a tractable problem. Due to its definition the robust counterpart highly depends on how we choose the uncertainty set. As a consequence we can meet this challenge only if this set is chosen in a suitable way. The development on RO grows fast, since 2004, a new approach of RO called Adjustable Robust Optimization (ARO) is introduced to handle uncertain problems when the decision variables must be decided as a ”wait and see” decision variables. Different than the classic Robust Optimization (RO) that models decision variables as ”here and now”. In ARO, the uncertain problems can be considered as a multistage decision problem, thus decision variables involved are now become the wait and see decision variables. In this paper we present the applications of both RO and ARO. We present briefly all results to strengthen the importance of RO and ARO in many real life problems.

The impact of personalized probabilistic wall thickness models on peak wall stress in abdominal aortic aneurysms.

PubMed

Biehler, J; Wall, W A

2018-02-01

If computational models are ever to be used in high-stakes decision making in clinical practice, the use of personalized models and predictive simulation techniques is a must. This entails rigorous quantification of uncertainties as well as harnessing available patient-specific data to the greatest extent possible. Although researchers are beginning to realize that taking uncertainty in model input parameters into account is a necessity, the predominantly used probabilistic description for these uncertain parameters is based on elementary random variable models. In this work, we set out for a comparison of different probabilistic models for uncertain input parameters using the example of an uncertain wall thickness in finite element models of abdominal aortic aneurysms. We provide the first comparison between a random variable and a random field model for the aortic wall and investigate the impact on the probability distribution of the computed peak wall stress. Moreover, we show that the uncertainty about the prevailing peak wall stress can be reduced if noninvasively available, patient-specific data are harnessed for the construction of the probabilistic wall thickness model. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Smoothing-based compressed state Kalman filter for joint state-parameter estimation: Applications in reservoir characterization and CO2 storage monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y. J.; Kokkinaki, Amalia; Darve, Eric F.; Kitanidis, Peter K.

2017-08-01

The operation of most engineered hydrogeological systems relies on simulating physical processes using numerical models with uncertain parameters and initial conditions. Predictions by such uncertain models can be greatly improved by Kalman-filter techniques that sequentially assimilate monitoring data. Each assimilation constitutes a nonlinear optimization, which is solved by linearizing an objective function about the model prediction and applying a linear correction to this prediction. However, if model parameters and initial conditions are uncertain, the optimization problem becomes strongly nonlinear and a linear correction may yield unphysical results. In this paper, we investigate the utility of one-step ahead smoothing, a variant of the traditional filtering process, to eliminate nonphysical results and reduce estimation artifacts caused by nonlinearities. We present the smoothing-based compressed state Kalman filter (sCSKF), an algorithm that combines one step ahead smoothing, in which current observations are used to correct the state and parameters one step back in time, with a nonensemble covariance compression scheme, that reduces the computational cost by efficiently exploring the high-dimensional state and parameter space. Numerical experiments show that when model parameters are uncertain and the states exhibit hyperbolic behavior with sharp fronts, as in CO2 storage applications, one-step ahead smoothing reduces overshooting errors and, by design, gives physically consistent state and parameter estimates. We compared sCSKF with commonly used data assimilation methods and showed that for the same computational cost, combining one step ahead smoothing and nonensemble compression is advantageous for real-time characterization and monitoring of large-scale hydrogeological systems with sharp moving fronts.

Effects of uncertain topographic input data on two-dimensional flow modeling in a gravel-bed river

USGS Publications Warehouse

Legleiter, C.J.; Kyriakidis, P.C.; McDonald, R.R.; Nelson, J.M.

2011-01-01

Many applications in river research and management rely upon two-dimensional (2D) numerical models to characterize flow fields, assess habitat conditions, and evaluate channel stability. Predictions from such models are potentially highly uncertain due to the uncertainty associated with the topographic data provided as input. This study used a spatial stochastic simulation strategy to examine the effects of topographic uncertainty on flow modeling. Many, equally likely bed elevation realizations for a simple meander bend were generated and propagated through a typical 2D model to produce distributions of water-surface elevation, depth, velocity, and boundary shear stress at each node of the model's computational grid. Ensemble summary statistics were used to characterize the uncertainty associated with these predictions and to examine the spatial structure of this uncertainty in relation to channel morphology. Simulations conditioned to different data configurations indicated that model predictions became increasingly uncertain as the spacing between surveyed cross sections increased. Model sensitivity to topographic uncertainty was greater for base flow conditions than for a higher, subbankfull flow (75% of bankfull discharge). The degree of sensitivity also varied spatially throughout the bend, with the greatest uncertainty occurring over the point bar where the flow field was influenced by topographic steering effects. Uncertain topography can therefore introduce significant uncertainty to analyses of habitat suitability and bed mobility based on flow model output. In the presence of such uncertainty, the results of these studies are most appropriately represented in probabilistic terms using distributions of model predictions derived from a series of topographic realizations. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

A global parallel model based design of experiments method to minimize model output uncertainty.

PubMed

Bazil, Jason N; Buzzard, Gregory T; Rundell, Ann E

2012-03-01

Model-based experiment design specifies the data to be collected that will most effectively characterize the biological system under study. Existing model-based design of experiment algorithms have primarily relied on Fisher Information Matrix-based methods to choose the best experiment in a sequential manner. However, these are largely local methods that require an initial estimate of the parameter values, which are often highly uncertain, particularly when data is limited. In this paper, we provide an approach to specify an informative sequence of multiple design points (parallel design) that will constrain the dynamical uncertainty of the biological system responses to within experimentally detectable limits as specified by the estimated experimental noise. The method is based upon computationally efficient sparse grids and requires only a bounded uncertain parameter space; it does not rely upon initial parameter estimates. The design sequence emerges through the use of scenario trees with experimental design points chosen to minimize the uncertainty in the predicted dynamics of the measurable responses of the system. The algorithm was illustrated herein using a T cell activation model for three problems that ranged in dimension from 2D to 19D. The results demonstrate that it is possible to extract useful information from a mathematical model where traditional model-based design of experiments approaches most certainly fail. The experiments designed via this method fully constrain the model output dynamics to within experimentally resolvable limits. The method is effective for highly uncertain biological systems characterized by deterministic mathematical models with limited data sets. Also, it is highly modular and can be modified to include a variety of methodologies such as input design and model discrimination.

Under the influence: Effects of adolescent ethanol exposure and anxiety on motivation for uncertain gambling-like cues in male and female rats.

PubMed

Hellberg, Samantha N; Levit, Jeremy D; Robinson, Mike J F

2018-01-30

Gambling disorder (GD) frequently co-occurs with alcohol use and anxiety disorders, suggesting possible shared mechanisms. Recent research suggests reward uncertainty may powerfully enhance attraction towards reward cues. Here, we examined the effects of adolescent ethanol exposure, anxiety, and reward uncertainty on cue-triggered motivation. Male and female adolescent rats were given free access to ethanol or control jello for 20days. Following withdrawal, rats underwent autoshaping on a certain (100%-1) or uncertain (50%-1-2-3) reward contingency, followed by single-session conditioned reinforcement and progressive ratio tasks, and 7days of omission training, during which lever pressing resulted in omission of reward. Finally, anxiety levels were quantified on the elevated plus maze. Here, we found that uncertainty narrowed cue attraction by significantly increasing the ratio of sign-tracking to goal-tracking, particularly amongst control jello and high anxiety animals, but not in animals exposed to ethanol during adolescence. In addition, attentional bias towards the lever cue was more persistent under uncertain conditions following omission training. We also found that females consumed more ethanol, and that uncertainty mitigated the anxiolytic effects of ethanol exposure observed in high ethanol intake animals under certainty conditions. Our results further support that reward uncertainty biases attraction towards reward cues, suggesting also that heightened anxiety may enhance vulnerability to the effects of reward uncertainty. Chronic, elevated alcohol consumption may contribute to heightened anxiety levels, while high anxiety may promote the over-attribution of incentive value to reward cues, highlighting possible mechanisms that may drive concurrent anxiety, heavy drinking, and problematic gambling. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Model-independent particle accelerator tuning

DOE PAGES

Scheinker, Alexander; Pang, Xiaoying; Rybarcyk, Larry

2013-10-21

We present a new model-independent dynamic feedback technique, rotation rate tuning, for automatically and simultaneously tuning coupled components of uncertain, complex systems. The main advantages of the method are: 1) It has the ability to handle unknown, time-varying systems, 2) It gives known bounds on parameter update rates, 3) We give an analytic proof of its convergence and its stability, and 4) It has a simple digital implementation through a control system such as the Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System (EPICS). Because this technique is model independent it may be useful as a real-time, in-hardware, feedback-based optimization scheme formore » uncertain and time-varying systems. In particular, it is robust enough to handle uncertainty due to coupling, thermal cycling, misalignments, and manufacturing imperfections. As a result, it may be used as a fine-tuning supplement for existing accelerator tuning/control schemes. We present multi-particle simulation results demonstrating the scheme’s ability to simultaneously adaptively adjust the set points of twenty two quadrupole magnets and two RF buncher cavities in the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center Linear Accelerator’s transport region, while the beam properties and RF phase shift are continuously varying. The tuning is based only on beam current readings, without knowledge of particle dynamics. We also present an outline of how to implement this general scheme in software for optimization, and in hardware for feedback-based control/tuning, for a wide range of systems.« less

Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: U.S. emissions inventories

Treesearch

Narasimhan K. Larkin; Sean M. Raffuse; Tara M. Strand

2014-01-01

Emissions from wildland fire are both highly variable and highly uncertain over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Wildland fire emissions change considerably due to fluctuations from year to year with overall fire season severity, from season to season as different regions pass in and out of wildfire and prescribed fire periods, and from day to day as...

Forest ecosystem respiration estimated from eddy covariance and chamber measurements under high turbulence and substantial tree mortality from bark beetles

Treesearch

Heather N. Speckman; John M. Frank; John B. Bradford; Brianna L. Miles; William J. Massman; William J. Parton; Michael G. Ryan

2015-01-01

Eddy covariance nighttime fluxes are uncertain due to potential measurement biases. Many studies report eddy covariance nighttime flux lower than flux from extrapolated chamber measurements, despite corrections for low turbulence. We compared eddy covariance and chamber estimates of ecosystem respiration at the GLEES Ameriflux site over seven growing seasons under high...

Revisiting ocean carbon sequestration by direct injection: a global carbon budget perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reith, Fabian; Keller, David P.; Oschlies, Andreas

2016-11-01

In this study we look beyond the previously studied effects of oceanic CO2 injections on atmospheric and oceanic reservoirs and also account for carbon cycle and climate feedbacks between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere. Considering these additional feedbacks is important since backfluxes from the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere in response to reducing atmospheric CO2 can further offset the targeted reduction. To quantify these dynamics we use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to simulate direct injection of CO2 into the deep ocean as a means of emissions mitigation during a high CO2 emission scenario. In three sets of experiments with different injection depths, we simulate a 100-year injection period of a total of 70 GtC and follow global carbon cycle dynamics over another 900 years. In additional parameter perturbation runs, we varied the default terrestrial photosynthesis CO2 fertilization parameterization by ±50 % in order to test the sensitivity of this uncertain carbon cycle feedback to the targeted atmospheric carbon reduction through direct CO2 injections. Simulated seawater chemistry changes and marine carbon storage effectiveness are similar to previous studies. As expected, by the end of the injection period avoided emissions fall short of the targeted 70 GtC by 16-30 % as a result of carbon cycle feedbacks and backfluxes in both land and ocean reservoirs. The target emissions reduction in the parameter perturbation simulations is about 0.2 and 2 % more at the end of the injection period and about 9 % less to 1 % more at the end of the simulations when compared to the unperturbed injection runs. An unexpected feature is the effect of the model's internal variability of deep-water formation in the Southern Ocean, which, in some model runs, causes additional oceanic carbon uptake after injection termination relative to a control run without injection and therefore with slightly different atmospheric CO2 and climate. These results of a model that has very low internal climate variability illustrate that the attribution of carbon fluxes and accounting for injected CO2 may be very challenging in the real climate system with its much larger internal variability.

A novel composite adaptive flap controller design by a high-efficient modified differential evolution identification approach.

PubMed

Li, Nailu; Mu, Anle; Yang, Xiyun; Magar, Kaman T; Liu, Chao

2018-05-01

The optimal tuning of adaptive flap controller can improve adaptive flap control performance on uncertain operating environments, but the optimization process is usually time-consuming and it is difficult to design proper optimal tuning strategy for the flap control system (FCS). To solve this problem, a novel adaptive flap controller is designed based on a high-efficient differential evolution (DE) identification technique and composite adaptive internal model control (CAIMC) strategy. The optimal tuning can be easily obtained by DE identified inverse of the FCS via CAIMC structure. To achieve fast tuning, a high-efficient modified adaptive DE algorithm is proposed with new mutant operator and varying range adaptive mechanism for the FCS identification. A tradeoff between optimized adaptive flap control and low computation cost is successfully achieved by proposed controller. Simulation results show the robustness of proposed method and its superiority to conventional adaptive IMC (AIMC) flap controller and the CAIMC flap controllers using other DE algorithms on various uncertain operating conditions. The high computation efficiency of proposed controller is also verified based on the computation time on those operating cases. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the future of civilian plutonium: An assessment of technological impediments to nuclear terrorism and proliferation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avedon, Roger Edmond

This dissertation addresses the value of developing diversion- and theft-resistant nuclear power technology, given uncertain future demand for nuclear power, and uncertain risks of nuclear terrorism and of proliferation from the reprocessing of civilian plutonium. The methodology comprises four elements: Economics. An economic growth model coupled with market penetration effects for plutonium and for the hypothetical new technology provides a range of estimates for future nuclear demand. A flow model accounts for the longevity of capital assets (nuclear plants) over time. Terrorism. The commercial nuclear fuel cycle may provide a source of fissile material for terrorists seeking to construct a crude nuclear device. An option value model is used to estimate the effects of the hypothetical new technology on reducing the probability of theft. A game theoretic model is used to explore the deterrence value of physical security and then to draw conclusions about how learning on the part of terrorists or security forces might affect the theft estimate. The principal uncertainties in the theft model can be updated using Bayesian techniques as new data emerge. Proliferation. Access to fissile material is the principal technical impediment to a state's acquisition of nuclear weapons. A game theoretic model is used to determine the circumstances under which a state may proliferate via diversion. The model shows that the hypothetical new technology will have little value for counter-proliferation if diversion is not a preferred proliferation method. A technology policy analysis of the choice of proliferation method establishes that diversion is unlikely to be used because it has no constituency among the important parties to the decision, namely the political leadership, the scientific establishment, and the military. Value. The decision whether to develop a diversion- and theft-resistant fuel cycle depends on the perceived value of avoiding nuclear terrorism and proliferation. The opportunity cost of such events is prohibitively difficult to assess. Instead, recent nonproliferation efforts and long term funding of organizations with nonproliferation objectives suggest a willingness-to-pay to avoid breaches in nuclear security. The cancellation of the Integral Fast Reactor in 1994 is analyzed using the methodology developed in the dissertation.

Implications of Deep Decarbonization for Carbon Cycle Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. D.; Williams, J.; Torn, M. S.

2016-12-01

The energy-system transformations required to achieve deep decarbonization in the United States, defined as a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of 80% or more below 1990 levels by 2050, have profound implications for carbon cycle science, particularly with respect to 4 key objectives: understanding and enhancing the terrestrial carbon sink, using bioenergy sustainably, controlling non-CO2 GHGs, and emissions monitoring and verification. (1) As a source of mitigation, the terrestrial carbon sink is pivotal but uncertain, and changes in the expected sink may significantly affect the overall cost of mitigation. Yet the dynamics of the sink under changing climatic conditions, and the potential to protect and enhance the sink through land management, are poorly understood. Policy urgently requires an integrative research program that links basic science knowledge to land management practices. (2) Biomass resources can fill critical energy needs in a deeply decarbonized system, but current understanding of sustainability and lifecycle carbon aspects is limited. Mitigation policy needs better understanding of the sustainable amount, types, and cost of bioenergy feedstocks, their interactions with other land uses, and more efficient and reliable monitoring of embedded carbon. (3) As CO2 emissions from energy decrease under deep decarbonization, the relative share of non-CO2 GHGs grows larger and their mitigation more important. Because the sources tend to be distributed, variable, and uncertain, they have been under-researched. Policy needs a better understanding of mitigation priorities and costs, informed by deeper research in key areas such as fugitive CH4, fertilizer-derived N2O, and industrial F-gases. (4) The M&V challenge under deep decarbonization changes with a steep decrease in the combustion CO2 sources due to widespread electrification, while a greater share of CO2 releases is net-carbon-neutral. Similarly, gas pipelines may carry an increasing share of methane from biogenic or other net carbon-neutral sources. Improved lifecycle analysis will be needed to verify carbon neutrality, while the signal-to-noise challenge for attributing CO2 to fossil or biogenic fuels becomes more challenging.

Uncertain programming models for portfolio selection with uncertain returns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Bo; Peng, Jin; Li, Shengguo

2015-10-01

In an indeterminacy economic environment, experts' knowledge about the returns of securities consists of much uncertainty instead of randomness. This paper discusses portfolio selection problem in uncertain environment in which security returns cannot be well reflected by historical data, but can be evaluated by the experts. In the paper, returns of securities are assumed to be given by uncertain variables. According to various decision criteria, the portfolio selection problem in uncertain environment is formulated as expected-variance-chance model and chance-expected-variance model by using the uncertainty programming. Within the framework of uncertainty theory, for the convenience of solving the models, some crisp equivalents are discussed under different conditions. In addition, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is designed in the paper to provide a general method for solving the new models in general cases. At last, two numerical examples are provided to show the performance and applications of the models and algorithm.

Diel hysteresis between soil respiration and soil temperature in a biological soil crust covered desert ecosystem

PubMed Central

Li, Xinrong; Zhang, Peng; Chen, Yongle

2018-01-01

Soil respiration induced by biological soil crusts (BSCs) is an important process in the carbon (C) cycle in arid and semi-arid ecosystems, where vascular plants are restricted by the harsh environment, particularly the limited soil moisture. However, the interaction between temperature and soil respiration remains uncertain because of the number of factors that control soil respiration, including temperature and soil moisture, especially in BSC-dominated areas. In this study, the soil respiration in moss-dominated crusts and lichen-dominated crusts was continuously measured using an automated soil respiration system over a one-year period from November 2015 to October 2016 in the Shapotou region of the Tengger Desert, northern China. The results indicated that over daily cycles, the half-hourly soil respiration rates in both types of BSC-covered areas were commonly related to the soil temperature. The observed diel hysteresis between the half-hourly soil respiration rates and soil temperature in the BSC-covered areas was limited by nonlinearity loops with semielliptical shapes, and soil temperature often peaked later than the half-hourly soil respiration rates in the BSC-covered areas. The average lag times between the half-hourly soil respiration rates and soil temperature for both types of BSC-covered areas were two hours over the diel cycles, and they were negatively and linearly related to the volumetric soil water content. Our results highlight the diel hysteresis phenomenon that occurs between soil respiration rates and soil temperatures in BSC-covered areas and the negative response of this phenomenon to soil moisture, which may influence total C budget evaluations. Therefore, the interactive effects of soil temperature and moisture on soil respiration in BSC-covered areas should be considered in global carbon cycle models of desert ecosystems. PMID:29624606

Efficient dredging strategies for improving transportation infrastructure resilience : August 1, 2014 - December 31, 2016 : final research report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-02-01

The inland navigation system is highly dependent on uncertain natural factors such as shoaling that can render waterways unnavigable. In order to ensure waterway navigability, maintenance dredging must be completed. We consider the problem of selecti...

Marine nitrous oxide emissions: An unknown liability for the international water sector

EPA Science Inventory

Reliable estimates of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are essential for setting effective climate policy at both the sector and national level. Current IPCC Guidelines for calculating nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from sewage management are both highly uncertain and ...

Toward Sustainable Water Resource Management: Challenges and Opportunities

EPA Science Inventory

The United States has derived significant economic benefit from an abundant and high-quality water supply. The ability of the nation to continue this pace into the future is uncertain because of a number of significant challenges. These include increasing water demand because of ...

AN AMMONIA EMISSION INVENTORY FOR FERTILIZER APPLICATION IN THE UNITED STATES. (R826371C006)

EPA Science Inventory

Fertilizer application represents a significant fraction of ammonia emissions from all sources in the United States. Previously published ammonia inventories have generally suffered from poor spatial and temporal resolution, erroneous activity levels, and highly uncertain emis...

Evaluating Urban Resilience to Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Approach (External Review Draft)

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change impacts are diverse, long-term, and not easily predictable. Adapting to climate change requires making context specific and forward-looking decisions regarding a variety of climate change impacts and vulnerabilities when the future is highly uncertain. EPA scientis...

Capacity planning for waste management systems: an interval fuzzy robust dynamic programming approach.

PubMed

Nie, Xianghui; Huang, Guo H; Li, Yongping

2009-11-01

This study integrates the concepts of interval numbers and fuzzy sets into optimization analysis by dynamic programming as a means of accounting for system uncertainty. The developed interval fuzzy robust dynamic programming (IFRDP) model improves upon previous interval dynamic programming methods. It allows highly uncertain information to be effectively communicated into the optimization process through introducing the concept of fuzzy boundary interval and providing an interval-parameter fuzzy robust programming method for an embedded linear programming problem. Consequently, robustness of the optimization process and solution can be enhanced. The modeling approach is applied to a hypothetical problem for the planning of waste-flow allocation and treatment/disposal facility expansion within a municipal solid waste (MSW) management system. Interval solutions for capacity expansion of waste management facilities and relevant waste-flow allocation are generated and interpreted to provide useful decision alternatives. The results indicate that robust and useful solutions can be obtained, and the proposed IFRDP approach is applicable to practical problems that are associated with highly complex and uncertain information.

Synthetic Spectral Ananlysis of the Nova-Like Variable KQ Mon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolfe, Aaron; Sion, E.

2011-01-01

KQ Mon is classified as a nova-like variable with an uncertain orbital period of 0.128 d. Optical spectra (Zwitter, T. & Munari, U.1994, A&AS, 107, 503) reveal no emission lines but strong Balmer absorption features. High speed flickering has been observed indicative of accretion. IUE spectra reveal deep absorption lines due to C III, C II, Si III, Si IV, C IV, He II but no P Cygni profiles indicative of outflow. Its classification in Ritter and Kolb (2006) as a UX UMa type nova-like is uncertain. We have carried out the first synthetic spectral analysis of the IUE archival spectra of KQ Mon with realistic accretion disk models with vertical structure and high gravity photosphere models. The results of our model atmosphere and model accretion disk analyses are presented. We discuss the properties that we have derived for KQ Mon and compare KQ Mon with other nova-like variables viewed at low inclination. This work was supported in part by NSF grant AST0807892 to Villanova University.

Application of a predictive Bayesian model to environmental accounting.

PubMed

Anex, R P; Englehardt, J D

2001-03-30

Environmental accounting techniques are intended to capture important environmental costs and benefits that are often overlooked in standard accounting practices. Environmental accounting methods themselves often ignore or inadequately represent large but highly uncertain environmental costs and costs conditioned by specific prior events. Use of a predictive Bayesian model is demonstrated for the assessment of such highly uncertain environmental and contingent costs. The predictive Bayesian approach presented generates probability distributions for the quantity of interest (rather than parameters thereof). A spreadsheet implementation of a previously proposed predictive Bayesian model, extended to represent contingent costs, is described and used to evaluate whether a firm should undertake an accelerated phase-out of its PCB containing transformers. Variability and uncertainty (due to lack of information) in transformer accident frequency and severity are assessed simultaneously using a combination of historical accident data, engineering model-based cost estimates, and subjective judgement. Model results are compared using several different risk measures. Use of the model for incorporation of environmental risk management into a company's overall risk management strategy is discussed.

Optimal Decision Making in a Class of Uncertain Systems Based on Uncertain Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bubnicki, Z.

2006-06-01

The paper is concerned with a class of uncertain systems described by relational knowledge representations with unknown parameters which are assumed to be values of uncertain variables characterized by a user in the form of certainty distributions. The first part presents the basic optimization problem consisting in finding the decision maximizing the certainty index that the requirement given by a user is satisfied. The main part is devoted to the description of the optimization problem with the given certainty threshold. It is shown how the approach presented in the paper may be applied to some problems for anticipatory systems.

Uncertain sightings and the extinction of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker.

PubMed

Solow, Andrew; Smith, Woollcott; Burgman, Mark; Rout, Tracy; Wintle, Brendan; Roberts, David

2012-02-01

The extinction of a species can be inferred from a record of its sightings. Existing methods for doing so assume that all sightings in the record are valid. Often, however, there are sightings of uncertain validity. To date, uncertain sightings have been treated in an ad hoc way, either excluding them from the record or including them as if they were certain. We developed a Bayesian method that formally accounts for such uncertain sightings. The method assumes that valid and invalid sightings follow independent Poisson processes and use noninformative prior distributions for the rate of valid sightings and for a measure of the quality of uncertain sightings. We applied the method to a recently published record of sightings of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis). This record covers the period 1897-2010 and contains 39 sightings classified as certain and 29 classified as uncertain. The Bayes factor in favor of extinction was 4.03, which constitutes substantial support for extinction. The posterior distribution of the time of extinction has 3 main modes in 1944, 1952, and 1988. The method can be applied to sighting records of other purportedly extinct species. ©2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

Application of stochastic approach based on Monte Carlo (MC) simulation for life cycle inventory (LCI) of the rare earth elements (REEs) in beneficiation rare earth waste from the gold processing: case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bieda, Bogusław; Grzesik, Katarzyna

2017-11-01

The study proposes an stochastic approach based on Monte Carlo (MC) simulation for life cycle assessment (LCA) method limited to life cycle inventory (LCI) study for rare earth elements (REEs) recovery from the secondary materials processes production applied to the New Krankberg Mine in Sweden. The MC method is recognizes as an important tool in science and can be considered the most effective quantification approach for uncertainties. The use of stochastic approach helps to characterize the uncertainties better than deterministic method. Uncertainty of data can be expressed through a definition of probability distribution of that data (e.g. through standard deviation or variance). The data used in this study are obtained from: (i) site-specific measured or calculated data, (ii) values based on literature, (iii) the ecoinvent process "rare earth concentrate, 70% REO, from bastnäsite, at beneficiation". Environmental emissions (e.g, particulates, uranium-238, thorium-232), energy and REE (La, Ce, Nd, Pr, Sm, Dy, Eu, Tb, Y, Sc, Yb, Lu, Tm, Y, Gd) have been inventoried. The study is based on a reference case for the year 2016. The combination of MC analysis with sensitivity analysis is the best solution for quantified the uncertainty in the LCI/LCA. The reliability of LCA results may be uncertain, to a certain degree, but this uncertainty can be noticed with the help of MC method.

Validation of Ocean Color Satellite Data Products in Under Sampled Marine Areas. Chapter 6

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Subramaniam, Ajit; Hood, Raleigh R.; Brown, Christopher W.; Carpenter, Edward J.; Capone, Douglas G.

2001-01-01

The planktonic marine cyanobacterium, Trichodesmium sp., is broadly distributed throughout the oligotrophic marine tropical and sub-tropical oceans. Trichodesmium, which typically occurs in macroscopic bundles or colonies, is noteworthy for its ability to form large surface aggregations and to fix dinitrogen gas. The latter is important because primary production supported by N2 fixation can result in a net export of carbon from the surface waters to deep ocean and may therefore play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. However, information on the distribution and density of Trichodesmium from shipboard measurements through the oligotrophic oceans is very sparse. Such estimates are required to quantitatively estimate total global rates of N2 fixation. As a result current global rate estimates are highly uncertain. Thus in order to understand the broader biogeochemical importance of Trichodesmium and N2 fixation in the oceans, we need better methods to estimate the global temporal and spatial variability of this organism. One approach that holds great promise is satellite remote sensing. Satellite ocean color sensors are ideal instruments for estimating global phytoplankton biomass, especially that due to episodic blooms, because they provide relatively high frequency synoptic information over large areas. Trichodesmium has a combination of specific ultrastructural and biochemical features that lend themselves to identification of this organism by remote sensing. Specifically, these features are high backscatter due to the presence of gas vesicles, and absorption and fluorescence of phycoerythrin. The resulting optical signature is relatively unique and should be detectable with satellite ocean color sensors such as the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS).

Ryanodine receptor fragmentation and sarcoplasmic reticulum Ca2+ leak after one session of high-intensity interval exercise

PubMed Central

Place, Nicolas; Ivarsson, Niklas; Venckunas, Tomas; Neyroud, Daria; Brazaitis, Marius; Cheng, Arthur J.; Ochala, Julien; Kamandulis, Sigitas; Girard, Sebastien; Volungevičius, Gintautas; Paužas, Henrikas; Mekideche, Abdelhafid; Kayser, Bengt; Martinez-Redondo, Vicente; Bruton, Joseph; Truffert, Andre; Lanner, Johanna T.; Skurvydas, Albertas; Westerblad, Håkan

2015-01-01

High-intensity interval training (HIIT) is a time-efficient way of improving physical performance in healthy subjects and in patients with common chronic diseases, but less so in elite endurance athletes. The mechanisms underlying the effectiveness of HIIT are uncertain. Here, recreationally active human subjects performed highly demanding HIIT consisting of 30-s bouts of all-out cycling with 4-min rest in between bouts (≤3 min total exercise time). Skeletal muscle biopsies taken 24 h after the HIIT exercise showed an extensive fragmentation of the sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR) Ca2+ release channel, the ryanodine receptor type 1 (RyR1). The HIIT exercise also caused a prolonged force depression and triggered major changes in the expression of genes related to endurance exercise. Subsequent experiments on elite endurance athletes performing the same HIIT exercise showed no RyR1 fragmentation or prolonged changes in the expression of endurance-related genes. Finally, mechanistic experiments performed on isolated mouse muscles exposed to HIIT-mimicking stimulation showed reactive oxygen/nitrogen species (ROS)-dependent RyR1 fragmentation, calpain activation, increased SR Ca2+ leak at rest, and depressed force production due to impaired SR Ca2+ release upon stimulation. In conclusion, HIIT exercise induces a ROS-dependent RyR1 fragmentation in muscles of recreationally active subjects, and the resulting changes in muscle fiber Ca2+-handling trigger muscular adaptations. However, the same HIIT exercise does not cause RyR1 fragmentation in muscles of elite endurance athletes, which may explain why HIIT is less effective in this group. PMID:26575622

Uncertainty analysis of terrestrial net primary productivity and net biome productivity in China during 1901-2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Junjiong; Zhou, Xuhui; Luo, Yiqi; Zhang, Guodong; Yan, Wei; Li, Jiaxuan; Li, Bo; Dan, Li; Fisher, Joshua B.; Gao, Zhiqiang; He, Yong; Huntzinger, Deborah; Jain, Atul K.; Mao, Jiafu; Meng, Jihua; Michalak, Anna M.; Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Peng, Changhui; Poulter, Benjamin; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Shi, Xiaoying; Sun, Rui; Tao, Fulu; Tian, Hanqin; Wei, Yaxing; Zeng, Ning; Zhu, Qiuan; Zhu, Wenquan

2016-05-01

Despite the importance of net primary productivity (NPP) and net biome productivity (NBP), estimates of NPP and NBP for China are highly uncertain. To investigate the main sources of uncertainty, we synthesized model estimates of NPP and NBP for China from published literature and the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). The literature-based results showed that total NPP and NBP in China were 3.35 ± 1.25 and 0.14 ± 0.094 Pg C yr-1, respectively. Classification and regression tree analysis based on literature data showed that model type was the primary source of the uncertainty, explaining 36% and 64% of the variance in NPP and NBP, respectively. Spatiotemporal scales, land cover conditions, inclusion of the N cycle, and effects of N addition also contributed to the overall uncertainty. Results based on the MsTMIP data suggested that model structures were overwhelmingly important (>90%) for the overall uncertainty compared to simulations with different combinations of time-varying global change factors. The interannual pattern of NPP was similar among diverse studies and increased by 0.012 Pg C yr-1 during 1981-2000. In addition, high uncertainty in China's NPP occurred in areas with high productivity, whereas NBP showed the opposite pattern. Our results suggest that to significantly reduce uncertainty in estimated NPP and NBP, model structures should be substantially tested on the basis of empirical results. To this end, coordinated distributed experiments with multiple global change factors might be a practical approach that can validate specific structures of different models.

Ryanodine receptor fragmentation and sarcoplasmic reticulum Ca2+ leak after one session of high-intensity interval exercise.

PubMed

Place, Nicolas; Ivarsson, Niklas; Venckunas, Tomas; Neyroud, Daria; Brazaitis, Marius; Cheng, Arthur J; Ochala, Julien; Kamandulis, Sigitas; Girard, Sebastien; Volungevičius, Gintautas; Paužas, Henrikas; Mekideche, Abdelhafid; Kayser, Bengt; Martinez-Redondo, Vicente; Ruas, Jorge L; Bruton, Joseph; Truffert, Andre; Lanner, Johanna T; Skurvydas, Albertas; Westerblad, Håkan

2015-12-15

High-intensity interval training (HIIT) is a time-efficient way of improving physical performance in healthy subjects and in patients with common chronic diseases, but less so in elite endurance athletes. The mechanisms underlying the effectiveness of HIIT are uncertain. Here, recreationally active human subjects performed highly demanding HIIT consisting of 30-s bouts of all-out cycling with 4-min rest in between bouts (≤3 min total exercise time). Skeletal muscle biopsies taken 24 h after the HIIT exercise showed an extensive fragmentation of the sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR) Ca(2+) release channel, the ryanodine receptor type 1 (RyR1). The HIIT exercise also caused a prolonged force depression and triggered major changes in the expression of genes related to endurance exercise. Subsequent experiments on elite endurance athletes performing the same HIIT exercise showed no RyR1 fragmentation or prolonged changes in the expression of endurance-related genes. Finally, mechanistic experiments performed on isolated mouse muscles exposed to HIIT-mimicking stimulation showed reactive oxygen/nitrogen species (ROS)-dependent RyR1 fragmentation, calpain activation, increased SR Ca(2+) leak at rest, and depressed force production due to impaired SR Ca(2+) release upon stimulation. In conclusion, HIIT exercise induces a ROS-dependent RyR1 fragmentation in muscles of recreationally active subjects, and the resulting changes in muscle fiber Ca(2+)-handling trigger muscular adaptations. However, the same HIIT exercise does not cause RyR1 fragmentation in muscles of elite endurance athletes, which may explain why HIIT is less effective in this group.

Development of an advanced eco-hydrologic and biogeochemical coupling model aimed at clarifying the missing role of inland water in the global biogeochemical cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakayama, Tadanobu

2017-04-01

Recent research showed that inland water including rivers, lakes, and groundwater may play some role in carbon cycling, although its contribution has remained uncertain due to limited amount of reliable data available. In this study, the author developed an advanced model coupling eco-hydrology and biogeochemical cycle (National Integrated Catchment-based Eco-hydrology (NICE)-BGC). This new model incorporates complex coupling of hydrologic-carbon cycle in terrestrial-aquatic linkages and interplay between inorganic and organic carbon during the whole process of carbon cycling. The model could simulate both horizontal transports (export from land to inland water 2.01 ± 1.98 Pg C/yr and transported to ocean 1.13 ± 0.50 Pg C/yr) and vertical fluxes (degassing 0.79 ± 0.38 Pg C/yr, and sediment storage 0.20 ± 0.09 Pg C/yr) in major rivers in good agreement with previous researches, which was an improved estimate of carbon flux from previous studies. The model results also showed global net land flux simulated by NICE-BGC (-1.05 ± 0.62 Pg C/yr) decreased carbon sink a little in comparison with revised Lund-Potsdam-Jena Wetland Hydrology and Methane (-1.79 ± 0.64 Pg C/yr) and previous materials (-2.8 to -1.4 Pg C/yr). This is attributable to CO2 evasion and lateral carbon transport explicitly included in the model, and the result suggests that most previous researches have generally overestimated the accumulation of terrestrial carbon and underestimated the potential for lateral transport. The results further implied difference between inverse techniques and budget estimates suggested can be explained to some extent by a net source from inland water. NICE-BGC would play an important role in reevaluation of greenhouse gas budget of the biosphere, quantification of hot spots, and bridging the gap between top-down and bottom-up approaches to global carbon budget.

Self-expanding stent for spontaneous coronary artery dissection: a rational choice.

PubMed

Mele, Marco; Langialonga, Tommaso; Maggi, Alessandro; Villella, Massimo; Villella, Alessandro

2016-12-01

: Spontaneous coronary artery dissection (SCAD) is a rare and poorly understood cause of acute coronary syndrome in relatively young patients. Nowadays, the optimal treatment of SCAD is uncertain. A conservative approach seems to be preferable, but in particular conditions, an invasive strategy is necessary. The poor rate of procedural success, the high risk of procedural complications and the uncertain long and mid-term results make the interventional treatment of SCAD a challenge. We report a case of a young male patient presenting with SCAD successfully treated with a sirolimus-eluting self-expanding coronary stent. To our knowledge, the use of self-expanding coronary stent for SCAD has never been described yet and we discuss about the rationale of a possible larger use in clinical practice.

Travel itinerary uncertainty and the pre-travel consultation--a pilot study.

PubMed

Flaherty, Gerard; Md Nor, Muhammad Najmi

2016-01-01

Risk assessment relies on the accuracy of the information provided by the traveller. A questionnaire was administered to 83 consecutive travellers attending a travel medicine clinic. The majority of travellers was uncertain about destinations within countries, transportation or type of accommodation. Most travellers were uncertain if they would be visiting malaria regions. The degree of uncertainty about itinerary potentially impacts on the ability of the travel medicine specialist to perform an adequate risk assessment, select appropriate vaccinations and prescribe malaria prophylaxis. This study reveals high levels of traveller uncertainty about their itinerary which may potentially reduce the effectiveness of their pre-travel consultation. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of International society of travel medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Robust adaptive uniform exact tracking control for uncertain Euler-Lagrange system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yana; Hua, Changchun; Li, Junpeng; Guan, Xinping

2017-12-01

This paper offers a solution to the robust adaptive uniform exact tracking control for uncertain nonlinear Euler-Lagrange (EL) system. An adaptive finite-time tracking control algorithm is designed by proposing a novel nonsingular integral terminal sliding-mode surface. Moreover, a new adaptive parameter tuning law is also developed by making good use of the system tracking errors and the adaptive parameter estimation errors. Thus, both the trajectory tracking and the parameter estimation can be achieved in a guaranteed time adjusted arbitrarily based on practical demands, simultaneously. Additionally, the control result for the EL system proposed in this paper can be extended to high-order nonlinear systems easily. Finally, a test-bed 2-DOF robot arm is set-up to demonstrate the performance of the new control algorithm.

Aberrant expression and DNA methylation of lipid metabolism genes in PCOS: a new insight into its pathogenesis.

PubMed

Pan, Jie-Xue; Tan, Ya-Jing; Wang, Fang-Fang; Hou, Ning-Ning; Xiang, Yu-Qian; Zhang, Jun-Yu; Liu, Ye; Qu, Fan; Meng, Qing; Xu, Jian; Sheng, Jian-Zhong; Huang, He-Feng

2018-01-01

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), whose etiology remains uncertain, is a highly heterogenous and genetically complex endocrine disorder. The aim of this study was to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in granulosa cells (GCs) from PCOS patients and make epigenetic insights into the pathogenesis of PCOS. Included in this study were 110 women with PCOS and 119 women with normal ovulatory cycles undergoing in vitro fertilization acting as the control group. RNA-seq identified 92 DEGs unique to PCOS GCs in comparison with the control group. Bioinformatic analysis indicated that synthesis of lipids and steroids was activated in PCOS GCs. 5-Methylcytosine analysis demonstrated that there was an approximate 25% reduction in global DNA methylation of GCs in PCOS women (4.44 ± 0.65%) compared with the controls (6.07 ± 0.72%; P  < 0.05). Using MassArray EpiTYPER quantitative DNA methylation analysis, we also found hypomethylation of several gene promoters related to lipid and steroid synthesis, which might result in the aberrant expression of these genes. Our results suggest that hypomethylated genes related to the synthesis of lipid and steroid may dysregulate expression of these genes and promote synthesis of steroid hormones including androgen, which could partially explain mechanisms of hyperandrogenism in PCOS.

First System-Wide Estimates of Air-Sea Exchange of Carbon Dioxide in the Chesapeake Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrmann, M.; Najjar, R.; Menendez, A.

2016-02-01

Estuaries are estimated to play a major role in the global carbon cycle by degassing between 0.25 and 0.4 Pg C y-1, comparable to the uptake of atmospheric CO2 by continental shelf waters and as much as one quarter of the uptake of atmospheric CO2 by the open ocean. However, the global estimates of estuarine CO2 gas exchange are highly uncertain mostly due to limited data availability and extreme heterogeneity of coastal systems. Notably, the air-water CO2 flux for the largest U.S. estuary, the Chesapeake Bay, is yet unknown. Here we provide first system-level CO2 gas exchange estimates for the Chesapeake Bay, using data from the Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Monitoring Program (CBWQMP) and other data sources. We focus on the main stem of the Chesapeake Bay; hence, tributaries, such as the tidal portions of the Potomac and James Rivers, are not included in this first estimation of the flux. The preliminary results show the Bay to be a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere, outgassing on average 0.2 Tg C yr-1 over the study period, between 1985 and 2013. The spatial and temporal variability of the gas exchange will be discussed.

Presence of Borrelia spp. DNA in ticks, but absence of Borrelia spp. and of Leptospira spp. DNA in blood of fever patients in Madagascar.

PubMed

Hagen, Ralf Matthias; Frickmann, Hagen; Ehlers, Julian; Krüger, Andreas; Margos, Gabriele; Hizo-Teufel, Cecilia; Fingerle, Volker; Rakotozandrindrainy, Raphael; Kalckreuth, Vera von; Im, Justin; Pak, Gi Deok; Jeon, Hyon Jin; Rakotondrainiarivelo, Jean Philibert; Heriniaina, Jean Noël; Razafindrabe, Tsiry; Konings, Frank; May, Jürgen; Hogan, Benedikt; Ganzhorn, Jörg; Panzner, Ursula; Schwarz, Norbert Georg; Dekker, Denise; Marks, Florian; Poppert, Sven

2018-01-01

The occurrence of tick-borne relapsing fever and leptospirosis in humans in Madagascar remains unclear despite the presence of their potential vectors and reservoir hosts. We screened 255 Amblyomma variegatum ticks and 148 Rhipicephalus microplus ticks from Zebu cattle in Madagascar for Borrelia-specific DNA. Borrelia spp. DNA was detected in 21 Amblyomma variegatum ticks and 2 Rhipicephalus microplus ticks. One Borrelia found in one Rhipicephalus microplus showed close relationship to Borrelia theileri based on genetic distance and phylogenetic analyses on 16S rRNA and flaB sequences. The borreliae from Amblyomma variegatum could not be identified due to very low quantities of present DNA reflected by high cycle threshold values in real-time-PCR. It is uncertain whether these low numbers of Borrelia spp. are sufficient for transmission of infection from ticks to humans. In order to determine whether spirochaete infections are relevant in humans, blood samples of 1009 patients from the highlands of Madagascar with fever of unknown origin were screened for Borrelia spp. - and in addition for Leptospira spp. - by real-time PCR. No target DNA was detected, indicating a limited relevance of these pathogens for humans in the highlands of Madagascar. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Warming enhances old organic carbon decomposition through altering functional microbial communities

DOE PAGES

Cheng, Lei; Zhang, Naifang; Yuan, Mengting; ...

2017-04-21

Soil organic matter (SOM) stocks contain nearly three times as much carbon (C) as the atmosphere and changes in soil C stocks may have a major impact on future atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and climate. Over the past two decades, much research has been devoted to examining the influence of warming on SOM decomposition in topsoil. Most SOM, however, is old and stored in subsoil. The fate of subsoil SOM under future warming remains highly uncertain. Here, by combining a long-term field warming experiment and a meta-analysis study, we showed that warming significantly increased SOM decomposition in subsoil. We alsomore » showed that a decade of warming promoted decomposition of subsoil SOM with turnover times of decades to millennia in a tall grass prairie and this effect was largely associated with shifts in the functional gene structure of microbial communities. By coupling stable isotope probing with metagenomics, we found that microbial communities in warmed soils possessed a higher relative abundance of key functional genes involved in the degradation of organic materials with varying recalcitrance than those in control soils. These findings suggest warming may considerably alter the stability of the vast pool of old SOM in subsoil, contributing to the long-term positive feedback between the C cycle and climate.« less

Warming enhances old organic carbon decomposition through altering functional microbial communities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cheng, Lei; Zhang, Naifang; Yuan, Mengting

Soil organic matter (SOM) stocks contain nearly three times as much carbon (C) as the atmosphere and changes in soil C stocks may have a major impact on future atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and climate. Over the past two decades, much research has been devoted to examining the influence of warming on SOM decomposition in topsoil. Most SOM, however, is old and stored in subsoil. The fate of subsoil SOM under future warming remains highly uncertain. Here, by combining a long-term field warming experiment and a meta-analysis study, we showed that warming significantly increased SOM decomposition in subsoil. We alsomore » showed that a decade of warming promoted decomposition of subsoil SOM with turnover times of decades to millennia in a tall grass prairie and this effect was largely associated with shifts in the functional gene structure of microbial communities. By coupling stable isotope probing with metagenomics, we found that microbial communities in warmed soils possessed a higher relative abundance of key functional genes involved in the degradation of organic materials with varying recalcitrance than those in control soils. These findings suggest warming may considerably alter the stability of the vast pool of old SOM in subsoil, contributing to the long-term positive feedback between the C cycle and climate.« less

Warming enhances old organic carbon decomposition through altering functional microbial communities

PubMed Central

Cheng, Lei; Zhang, Naifang; Yuan, Mengting; Xiao, Jing; Qin, Yujia; Deng, Ye; Tu, Qichao; Xue, Kai; Van Nostrand, Joy D; Wu, Liyou; He, Zhili; Zhou, Xuhui; Leigh, Mary Beth; Konstantinidis, Konstantinos T; Schuur, Edward AG; Luo, Yiqi; Tiedje, James M; Zhou, Jizhong

2017-01-01

Soil organic matter (SOM) stocks contain nearly three times as much carbon (C) as the atmosphere and changes in soil C stocks may have a major impact on future atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and climate. Over the past two decades, much research has been devoted to examining the influence of warming on SOM decomposition in topsoil. Most SOM, however, is old and stored in subsoil. The fate of subsoil SOM under future warming remains highly uncertain. Here, by combining a long-term field warming experiment and a meta-analysis study, we showed that warming significantly increased SOM decomposition in subsoil. We also showed that a decade of warming promoted decomposition of subsoil SOM with turnover times of decades to millennia in a tall grass prairie and this effect was largely associated with shifts in the functional gene structure of microbial communities. By coupling stable isotope probing with metagenomics, we found that microbial communities in warmed soils possessed a higher relative abundance of key functional genes involved in the degradation of organic materials with varying recalcitrance than those in control soils. These findings suggest warming may considerably alter the stability of the vast pool of old SOM in subsoil, contributing to the long-term positive feedback between the C cycle and climate. PMID:28430189

Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change

PubMed Central

Longo, Marcos; Baccini, Alessandro; Phillips, Oliver L.; Lewis, Simon L.; Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban; Segalin de Andrade, Ana Cristina; Brienen, Roel J. W.; Erwin, Terry L.; Feldpausch, Ted R.; Monteagudo Mendoza, Abel Lorenzo; Nuñez Vargas, Percy; Prieto, Adriana; Silva-Espejo, Javier Eduardo; Malhi, Yadvinder; Moorcroft, Paul R.

2016-01-01

Amazon forests, which store ∼50% of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem’s resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest’s response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions. PMID:26711984

Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change.

PubMed

Levine, Naomi M; Zhang, Ke; Longo, Marcos; Baccini, Alessandro; Phillips, Oliver L; Lewis, Simon L; Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban; Segalin de Andrade, Ana Cristina; Brienen, Roel J W; Erwin, Terry L; Feldpausch, Ted R; Monteagudo Mendoza, Abel Lorenzo; Nuñez Vargas, Percy; Prieto, Adriana; Silva-Espejo, Javier Eduardo; Malhi, Yadvinder; Moorcroft, Paul R

2016-01-19

Amazon forests, which store ∼ 50% of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem's resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest's response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions.

Warming enhances old organic carbon decomposition through altering functional microbial communities.

PubMed

Cheng, Lei; Zhang, Naifang; Yuan, Mengting; Xiao, Jing; Qin, Yujia; Deng, Ye; Tu, Qichao; Xue, Kai; Van Nostrand, Joy D; Wu, Liyou; He, Zhili; Zhou, Xuhui; Leigh, Mary Beth; Konstantinidis, Konstantinos T; Schuur, Edward Ag; Luo, Yiqi; Tiedje, James M; Zhou, Jizhong

2017-08-01

Soil organic matter (SOM) stocks contain nearly three times as much carbon (C) as the atmosphere and changes in soil C stocks may have a major impact on future atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and climate. Over the past two decades, much research has been devoted to examining the influence of warming on SOM decomposition in topsoil. Most SOM, however, is old and stored in subsoil. The fate of subsoil SOM under future warming remains highly uncertain. Here, by combining a long-term field warming experiment and a meta-analysis study, we showed that warming significantly increased SOM decomposition in subsoil. We also showed that a decade of warming promoted decomposition of subsoil SOM with turnover times of decades to millennia in a tall grass prairie and this effect was largely associated with shifts in the functional gene structure of microbial communities. By coupling stable isotope probing with metagenomics, we found that microbial communities in warmed soils possessed a higher relative abundance of key functional genes involved in the degradation of organic materials with varying recalcitrance than those in control soils. These findings suggest warming may considerably alter the stability of the vast pool of old SOM in subsoil, contributing to the long-term positive feedback between the C cycle and climate.

Tuning Transpiration by Interfacial Solar Absorber‐Leaf Engineering

PubMed Central

Zhuang, Shendong; Zhou, Lin; Xu, Weichao; Xu, Ning; Hu, Xiaozhen; Li, Xiuqiang; Lv, Guangxin; Zheng, Qinghui; Zhu, Shining

2017-01-01

Abstract Plant transpiration, a process of water movement through a plant and its evaporation from aerial parts especially leaves, consumes a large component of the total continental precipitation (≈48%) and significantly influences global water distribution and climate. To date, various chemical and/or biological explorations have been made to tune the transpiration but with uncertain environmental risks. In recent years, interfacial solar steam/vapor generation is attracting a lot of attention for achieving high energy transfer efficiency. Various optical and thermal designs at the solar absorber–water interface for potential applications in water purification, seawater desalination, and power generation appear. In this work, the concept of interfacial solar vapor generation is extended to tunable plant transpiration by showing for the first time that the transpiration efficiency can also be enhanced or suppressed through engineering the solar absorber–leaf interface. By tuning the solar absorption of membrane in direct touch with green leaf, surface temperature of green leaf will change accordingly because of photothermal effect, thus the transpiration efficiency as well as temperature and relative humidity in the surrounding environment will be tuned. This tunable transpiration by interfacial absorber‐leaf engineering can open an alternative avenue to regulate local atmospheric temperature, humidity, and eventually hydrologic cycle. PMID:29619300

Antiseptics and Antibiotics for Surgical Wounds Healing by Secondary Intention: Summary of a Cochrane Review.

PubMed

Norman, Gill; Dumville, Jo C; Crosbie, Emma J

2016-11-01

Do antiseptics and antibiotics benefit surgical wounds healing by secondary intention (SWHSI)? No high-quality randomized clinical trials have addressed this question. Current evidence is limited and insufficient; it is uncertain whether treating SWHSI with antiseptics or antibiotics is beneficial.

Toward Securing a Future for Geography Graduates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spronken-Smith, Rachel

2013-01-01

Geography graduates face an uncertain future. To help students think and practice as a geographer, we must teach disciplinary knowledge--particularly threshold concepts--as well as skills and attributes. We must role model and articulate our geographical reasoning using signature pedagogies and promote high-impact and signature learning…

Molecular characterization of biochars and their influence on microbiological properties of soil

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The composition and surface chemistry of carbon rich biochar materials is highly uncertain and believed to change with feedstock and biomass conversion process. The tentative connection between the biochar surface chemical properties and their influence on microbially mediated mineralization of C, N...

Stochastic Modeling of Laminar-Turbulent Transition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rubinstein, Robert; Choudhari, Meelan

2002-01-01

Stochastic versions of stability equations are developed in order to develop integrated models of transition and turbulence and to understand the effects of uncertain initial conditions on disturbance growth. Stochastic forms of the resonant triad equations, a high Reynolds number asymptotic theory, and the parabolized stability equations are developed.

Polymerization of epoxidized triglycerides with fluorosulfonic acid

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The use of triglycerides as agri-based renewable raw materials for the development of new products is highly desirable in view of uncertain future petroleum prices. A new method of polymerizing epoxidized soybean oil has been devised with the use of fluorosulfonic acid. Depending on the reaction con...

Research on Spectroscopy, Opacity, and Atmospheres

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kurucz, Robert L.; Oliversen, Ronald (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

We list a few things that we do not understand about stars and that most people ignore. These are all hard problems. We can learn more cosmology by working on them to reduce the systematic errors they introduce than by trying to derive cosmological results that are highly uncertain.

High Throughput Heuristics for Prioritizing Human Exposure to Environmental Chemicals

EPA Science Inventory

The risk posed to human health by any of the thousands of untested anthropogenic chemicals in our environment is a function of both the potential hazard presented by the chemical, and the possibility of being exposed. Without the capacity to make quantitative, albeit uncertain, f...

Epidemiology and Control of Neosporosis and Neospora caninum

PubMed Central

Dubey, J. P.; Schares, G.; Ortega-Mora, L. M.

2007-01-01

Neospora caninum is a protozoan parasite of animals. Until 1988, it was misidentified as Toxoplasma gondii. Since its first recognition in dogs in 1984 and the description of the new genus and species Neospora caninum in 1988, neosporosis has emerged as a serious disease of cattle and dogs worldwide. Abortions and neonatal mortality are a major problem in livestock operations, and neosporosis is a major cause of abortion in cattle. Although antibodies to N. caninum have been reported, the parasite has not been detected in human tissues. Thus, the zoonotic potential is uncertain. This review is focused mainly on the epidemiology and control of neosporosis in cattle, but worldwide seroprevalences of N. caninum in animals and humans are tabulated. The role of wildlife in the life cycle of N. caninum and strategies for the control of neosporosis in cattle are discussed. PMID:17428888

Methods for Discerning Cloud Reflectivity Changes due to the Indirect Effect of Aerosol: A Pilot-study for Triana

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kinne, S.; Wiscombe, Warren; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Understanding the effect of aerosol on cloud systems is one of the major challenges in atmospheric and climate research. Local studies suggest a multitude of influences on cloud properties. Yet the overall effect on cloud albedo, a critical parameter in climate simulations, remains uncertain. NASA's Triana mission will provide, from its EPIC multi-spectral imager, simultaneous data on aerosol properties and cloud reflectivity. With Triana's unique position in space these data will be available not only globally but also over the entire daytime, well suited to accommodate the often short lifetimes of aerosol and investigations around diurnal cycles. This pilot study explores the ability to detect relationships between aerosol properties and cloud reflectivity with sophisticated statistical methods. Sample results using data from the EOS Terra platform to simulate Triana are presented.

Projected future suitable habitat and productivity of Douglas-fir in western North America

Treesearch

Aaron R. Weiskittel; Nicholas L. Crookston; Gerald E. Rehfeldt

2012-01-01

Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii [Mirb.] Franco) is one of the most common and commercially important species in western North America. The species can occupy a range of habitats, is long-lived (up to 500 years), and highly productive. However, the future of Douglas-fir in western North America is highly uncertain due to the expected changes in climate conditions....

At the Last Hour, It's Financial Aid 101 for These High-School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Supiano, Beckie

2009-01-01

The high-school seniors drifting in and out of the office in New York should be weighing financial-aid offers and deciding where to go to college. But some of them have yet to begin the process of applying for student aid. This article describes a nonprofit group in Harlem which gives last-minute help to students uncertain about applying for…

Deep uncertainty and broad heterogeneity in country-level social cost of carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricke, K.; Drouet, L.; Caldeira, K.; Tavoni, M.

2017-12-01

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a commonly employed metric of the expected economic damages expected from carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Recent estimates of SCC range from approximately 10/tonne of CO2 to as much as 1000/tCO2, but these have been computed at the global level. While useful in an optimal policy context, a world-level approach obscures the heterogeneous geography of climate damages and vast differences in country-level contributions to global SCC, as well as climate and socio-economic uncertainties, which are much larger at the regional level. For the first time, we estimate country-level contributions to SCC using recent climate and carbon-cycle model projections, empirical climate-driven economic damage estimations, and information from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways. Central specifications show high global SCC values (median: 417 /tCO2, 66% confidence intervals: 168 - 793 /tCO2) with country-level contributions ranging from -11 (-8 - -14) /tCO2 to 86 (50 - 158) /tCO2. We quantify climate-, scenario- and economic damage- driven uncertainties associated with the calculated values of SCC. We find that while the magnitude of country-level social cost of carbon is highly uncertain, the relative positioning among countries is consistent. Countries incurring large fractions of the global cost include India, China, and the United States. The share of SCC distributed among countries is robust, indicating climate change winners and losers from a geopolitical perspective.

The genome of the xerotolerant mold Wallemia sebi reveals adaptations to osmotic stress and suggests cryptic sexual reproduction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahajabeen, Padamsee; Kumas, T. K. Arun; Riley, Robert

Wallemia (Wallemiales, Wallemiomycetes) is a genus of xerophilic Fungi of uncertain phylogenetic position within Basidiomycota. Most commonly found as food contaminants, species of Wallemia have also been isolated from hypersaline environments. The ability to tolerate environments with reduced water activity is rare in Basidiomycota. We sequenced the genome of W. sebi in order to understand its adaptations for surviving in osmotically challenging environments, and we performed phylogenomic and ultrastructural analyses to address its systematic placement and reproductive biology. W. sebi has a compact genome (9.8 Mb), with few repeats and the largest fraction of genes with functional domains compared withmore » other Basidiomycota. We applied several approaches to searching for osmotic stress-related proteins. In silico analyses identied 93 putative osmotic stress proteins; homology searches showed the HOG (High Osmolarity Glycerol) pathway to be mostly conserved. Despite the seemingly reduced genome, several gene family expansions and a high number of transporters (549) were found that also provide clues to the ability of W. sebito colonize harsh environments. Phylogenetic analyses of a 71-protein dataset support the position of Wallemia as the earliest diverging lineage of Agaricomycotina, which is conrmed by septal pore ultrastructure that shows the septal pore apparatus as a variant of the Tremella-type. Mating type gene homologs were idented although we found no evidence of meiosis during conidiogenesis, suggesting there may be aspects of the life cycle of W. sebi that remain cryptic« less

Partitioning net ecosystem exchange of CO2 into gross primary production and ecosystem respiration in northern high-latitude ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lund, M.; Zona, D.; Jackowicz-Korczynski, M.; Xu, X.

2017-12-01

The eddy covariance methodology is the primary tool for studying landscape-scale land-atmosphere exchange of greenhouse gases. Since the choice of instrumental setup and processing algorithms may influence the results, efforts within the international flux community have been made towards methodological harmonization and standardization. Performing eddy covariance measurements in high-latitude, Arctic tundra sites involves several challenges, related not only to remoteness and harsh climate conditions but also to the choice of processing algorithms. Partitioning of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 into gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) in the FLUXNET2015 dataset is made using either Nighttime or Daytime methods. These variables, GPP and Reco, are essential for calibration and validation of Earth system models. North of the Arctic Circle, sun remains visible at local midnight for a period of time, the number of days per year with midnight sun being dependent on latitude. The absence of nighttime conditions during Arctic summers renders the Nighttime method uncertain, however, no extensive assessment on the implications for flux partitioning has yet been made. In this study, we will assess the performance and validity of both partitioning methods along a latitudinal transect of northern sites included in the FLUXNET2015 dataset. We will evaluate the partitioned flux components against model simulations using the Community Land Model (CLM). Our results will be valuable for users interested in simulating Arctic and global carbon cycling.

Correlation of the major late Jurassic —early Tertiary low- and highstand cycles of south-west Egypt and north-west Sudan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wycisk, Peter

1994-12-01

The mainly continental deposits of northwest Sudan and south-west Egypt have been correlated with coeval shallow marine and marine deposits in northern Egypt along a north-south running cross-section, based on surface and subsurface data. The palaeodepth curve of northern Egypt illustrates the gradual seal-level rise, reaching its maximum during the Late Cretaceous with conspicuous advances during the Aptian and late Cenomanian. A general highstand is also recorded during the Campanian-Maastrichtian in north-west Sudan. A detailed facies correlation is given for the Aptian and late Cenomanian highstand in western Egypt. The correlation of the Cenomanian Bahariya and Maghrabi formations displays short-term relative sealevel fluctuations. The interpretation illustrates the extensiveness of related erosional processes in the hinterland, partly intensified by temporarily uplift of the Uweinat-Aswan High in the south. Regional uplift and constant erosion took place in south-west Egypt during Coniacian and Santonian times. The regional stratigraphic gaps and uncertain interpretation of the Bahariya Uplift are induced by the influence of the Trans-African Lineament, especially during the Late Cretaceous. Low-stand fluvial sheet sandstones characterized by non-cyclic sequence development and high facies stability occur, especially in the Neocomian and early Turonian. During the Barremian and Albian, fluvial architecture changes to more cyclic fluvial sequences and increasing soil formation, due to increasing subsidence, more humid climatic conditions and the generally rising sea level, culminating in the extensive shallow marine Abu Ballas and Maghrabi formations.

Initializing carbon cycle predictions from the Community Land Model by assimilating global biomass observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, A. M.; Hoar, T. J.; Smith, W. K.; Moore, D. J.

2017-12-01

The locations and longevity of terrestrial carbon sinks remain uncertain, however it is clear that in order to predict long-term climate changes the role of the biosphere in surface energy and carbon balance must be understood and incorporated into earth system models (ESMs). Aboveground biomass, the amount of carbon stored in vegetation, is a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, representing the balance of uptake through gross primary productivity (GPP), losses from respiration, senescence and mortality over hundreds of years. The best predictions of current and future land-atmosphere fluxes are likely from the integration of process-based knowledge contained in models and information from observations of changes in carbon stocks using data assimilation (DA). By exploiting long times series, it is possible to accurately detect variability and change in carbon cycle dynamics through monitoring ecosystem states, for example biomass derived from vegetation optical depth (VOD), and use this information to initialize models before making predictions. To make maximum use of information about the current state of global ecosystems when using models we have developed a system that combines the Community Land Model (CLM) with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), a community tool for ensemble DA. This DA system is highly innovative in its complexity, completeness and capabilities. Here we described a series of activities, using both Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) and real observations, that have allowed us to quantify the potential impact of assimilating VOD data into CLM-DART on future land-atmosphere fluxes. VOD data are particularly suitable to use in this activity due to their long temporal coverage and appropriate scale when combined with CLM, but their absolute values rely on many assumptions. Therefore, we have had to assess the implications of the VOD retrieval algorithms, with an emphasis on detecting uncertainty due to assumptions and inputs in the algorithms that are incompatible with those encoded within CLM. It is probable that VOD describes changes in biomass more accurately than absolute values, so in additional to sequential assimilation of observations, we have tested alternative filter algorithms, and assimilating VOD anomalies.

Proxy Constraints on a Warm, Fresh Late Cretaceous Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Super, J. R.; Li, H.; Pagani, M.; Chin, K.

2015-12-01

The warm Late Cretaceous is thought to have been characterized by open Arctic Ocean temperatures upwards of 15°C (Jenkyns et al., 2004). The high temperatures and low equator-to-pole temperature gradient have proven difficult to reproduce in paleoclimate models, with the role of the atmospheric hydrologic cycle in heat transport being particularly uncertain. Here, sediments, coprolites and fish teeth of Santonian-Campanian age from two high-latitude mixed terrestrial and marine sections on Devon Island in the Canadian High Arctic (Chin et al., 2008) were analyzed using a suite of organic and inorganic proxies to evaluate the temperature and salinity of Arctic seawater. Surface temperature estimates were derived from TEX86 estimates of near-shore, shallow (~100 meters depth) marine sediments (Witkowski et al., 2011) and MBT-CBT estimates from terrestrial intervals and both suggest mean annual temperatures of ~20°C, consistent with previous estimates considering the more southerly location of Devon Island. The oxygen isotope composition of non-diagenetic phosphate from vertebrate coprolites and bony fish teeth were then measured, giving values ranging from +13‰ to +19‰. Assuming the TEX86 temperatures are valid and using the temperature calibration of Puceat 2010, the δ18O values of coprolites imply Arctic Ocean seawater δ18O values between -4‰ and -10‰, implying very fresh conditions. Lastly, the δD of precipitation will be estimated from the hydrogen isotope composition of higher plant leaf waxes (C-25, C-27, C-29 and C-31 n-alkanes) from both terrestrial and marine intervals. Data are used to model the salinity of seawater and the meteoric relationship between δD and δ18O, thereby helping to evaluate the northern high-latitude meteoric water line of the Late Cretaceous.

Formation, Evaporation, and Hydrolysis of Organic Nitrates from Nitrate Radical Oxidation of Monoterpenes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ng, N. L.; Takeuchi, M.; Eris, G.; Berkemeier, T.; Boyd, C.; Nah, T.; Xu, L.

2017-12-01

Organic nitrates play an important role in the cycling of NOx and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation, yet their formation mechanisms and fates remain highly uncertain. The interactions of biogenic VOCs with NO3 radicals represent a direct way for positively linking anthropogenic and biogenic emissions. Results from ambient studies suggest that organic nitrates have a relatively short lifetime, though corresponding laboratory data are limited. SOA and organic nitrates produced at night may evaporate the following morning due to increasing temperatures or dilution of semi-volatile compounds. Once formed, organic nitrates can also undergo hydrolysis in the presence of particle water. In this work, we investigate the formation, evaporation, and hydrolysis of organic nitrates generated from the nitrate radical oxidation of a-pinene, b-pinene, and limonene. Experiments are conducted in the Georgia Environmental Chamber facility (GTEC) under dry and humid conditions and different temperatures. Experiments are also designed to probe different peroxy radical pathways (RO2+HO2 vs RO2+NO3). Speciated gas-phase and particle-phase organic nitrates are continuously monitored by a Filter Inlet for Gases and AEROsols High Resolution Time-of-Flight Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometer (FIGAERO-HR-ToF-CIMS). Bulk aerosol composition is measured by a High Resolution Time-of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS). A large suite of highly oxygenated gas- and particle-phase organic nitrates are formed rapidly. We find a resistance to aerosol evaporation when it is heated. The extent of organic nitrate hydrolysis in the humid experiments is evaluated. The dynamics of the speciated organic nitrates over the course of the experiments will also be discussed. Results from this chamber study provide fundamental data for understanding the dynamics of organic nitrate aerosols over its atmospheric lifetime.

Synchronization transmission of laser pattern signal within uncertain switched network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lü, Ling; Li, Chengren; Li, Gang; Sun, Ao; Yan, Zhe; Rong, Tingting; Gao, Yan

2017-06-01

We propose a new technology for synchronization transmission of laser pattern signal within uncertain network with controllable topology. In synchronization process, the connection of dynamic network can vary at all time according to different demands. Especially, we construct the Lyapunov function of network through designing a special semi-positive definite function, and the synchronization transmission of laser pattern signal within uncertain network with controllable topology can be realized perfectly, which effectively avoids the complicated calculation for solving the second largest eignvalue of the coupling matrix of the dynamic network in order to obtain the network synchronization condition. At the same time, the uncertain parameters in dynamic equations belonging to network nodes can also be identified accurately via designing the identification laws of uncertain parameters. In addition, there are not any limitations for the synchronization target of network in the new technology, in other words, the target can either be a state variable signal of an arbitrary node within the network or an exterior signal.

An early warning system for high climate sensitivity? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierrehumbert, R.

2010-12-01

The scientific case for the clear and present danger of global warming has been unassailable at least since the release of the Charney Report more than thirty years ago, if not longer. While prompt action to begin decarbonizing energy systems could still head off much of the potential warming, it is distinctly possible that emissions will continue unabated in the coming decades, leading to a doubling or more of pre-industrial carbon dioxide concentrations. At present, we are in the unenviable position of not even knowing how bad things will get if this scenario comes to pass, because of the uncertainty in climate sensitivity. If climate sensitivity is high, then the consequences will be dire, perhaps even catastrophic. As the world continues to warm in response to continued carbon dioxide emissions, will we at least be able to monitor the climate and provide an early warning that the planet is on a high-sensitivity track, if such turns out to be the case? At what point will we actually know the climate sensitivity? It has long been recognized that the prime contributor to uncertainty in climate sensitivity is uncertainty in cloud feedbacks. Study of paleoclimate and climate of the past century has not been able to resolve which models do cloud feedback most correctly, because of uncertainties in radiative forcing. In this talk, I will discuss monitoring requirements, and analysis techniques, that might have the potential to determine which climate models most faithfully represent climate feedbacks, and thus determine which models provide the best estimate of climate sensitivity. The endeavor is complicated by the distinction between transient climate response and equilibrium climate sensitivity. I will discuss the particular challenges posed by this issue, particularly in light of recent indications that the pattern of ocean heat storage may lead to different cloud feedbacks in the transient warming stage than apply once the system has reached equilibrium. Apart from this problem, the transient nature of climate response driven by increasing CO2 requires careful monitoring of ocean heat storage as well as top-of-atmosphere radiative budgets, if climate sensitivity is to be estimated. Water vapor feedback is not considered as uncertain as cloud feedback, but there is still a considerable potential for surprises. I will discuss microwave monitoring requirements for tracking water vapor feedback. At the other extreme, the longer term feedbacks that contribute to Earth System Sensitivity are even more uncertain than cloud feedbacks, particularly with regard to the terrestrial carbon cycle. Prospects for obtaining an early warning of a PETM-type organic carbon release seem bleak. Finally, I will discuss the particular challenge of obtaining an early warning of high climate sensitivity in the case that the climate system has a bifurcation.

Robust adaptive controller design for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems using online T-S fuzzy-neural modeling approach.

PubMed

Chien, Yi-Hsing; Wang, Wei-Yen; Leu, Yih-Guang; Lee, Tsu-Tian

2011-04-01

This paper proposes a novel method of online modeling and control via the Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy-neural model for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems with some kinds of outputs. Although studies about adaptive T-S fuzzy-neural controllers have been made on some nonaffine nonlinear systems, little is known about the more complicated uncertain nonlinear systems. Because the nonlinear functions of the systems are uncertain, traditional T-S fuzzy control methods can model and control them only with great difficulty, if at all. Instead of modeling these uncertain functions directly, we propose that a T-S fuzzy-neural model approximates a so-called virtual linearized system (VLS) of the system, which includes modeling errors and external disturbances. We also propose an online identification algorithm for the VLS and put significant emphasis on robust tracking controller design using an adaptive scheme for the uncertain systems. Moreover, the stability of the closed-loop systems is proven by using strictly positive real Lyapunov theory. The proposed overall scheme guarantees that the outputs of the closed-loop systems asymptotically track the desired output trajectories. To illustrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method, simulation results are given in this paper.

[Treatment of aerobic vaginitis and clinically uncertain causes of vulvovaginal discomfort].

PubMed

Cepický, P; Malina, J; Kuzelová, M

2003-11-01

The treatment of clinically uncertain conditions of vaginal discomforts with a mixed preparation of nifuratel + nystatin (Macmiror complex) and the relation of uncertain conditions to aerobic vaginitis. A prospective study. Gynecology-Obstetrics Outpatient Department LEVRET Ltd., AescuLab Ltd., Laboratory of Microbiology, Prague. 50 women with vaginal discomfort, causes of which had not been clarified by gynecological examination, determination of pH and the amine test, were examined by vaginal smears using microscopy. The results were evaluated in relation to aerobic vaginitis in a pure form or in combination with other nosological units. The authors also evaluated results of therapy by oral nifuratel (Macmiror tbl) 3 x 200 mg daily and a vaginal combined preparation containing nifuratel 500 mg + nystatin 200 kIU (Macmiror complex 500 glo vag) for the period of 7 days. In 50 women candida was demonstrated 24 times, presence of key cells 11 times, lactobacillus nine times with more than 50 in the field, six women were affected by aerobic vaginitis. In all these cases the pH was 4.8 or higher, leukocytes were significantly represented in all cases (> 15 in the field), as well as gram-negative bacteria and/or cocci (> 30 in the field), indicating a combined picture of mycosis, anaerobic vaginosis or lactobacillosis with aerobic vaginitis. The therapy was successful in all cases, the relapse of complaints during one month occurred in three cases. Aerobic vaginitis in a pure form or with anaerobic vaginosis, mycosis or lactobacillosis is frequently concealed under clinically uncertain pictures of vulvo-vaginal discomfort. The therapy by a combination of nifurated 3 x 200 mg orally together with the combined vaginal preparation nifuratel 500 mg + nystatin 200 kIU for the period of 7 days exerts high effect and a low number of relapses.

Global Sampling for Integrating Physics-Specific Subsystems and Quantifying Uncertainties of CO 2 Geological Sequestration

DOE PAGES

Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Trainor-Guitten, W. J.; ...

2012-12-20

The risk of CO 2 leakage from a deep storage reservoir into a shallow aquifer through a fault is assessed and studied using physics-specific computer models. The hypothetical CO 2 geological sequestration system is composed of three subsystems: a deep storage reservoir, a fault in caprock, and a shallow aquifer, which are modeled respectively by considering sub-domain-specific physics. Supercritical CO 2 is injected into the reservoir subsystem with uncertain permeabilities of reservoir, caprock, and aquifer, uncertain fault location, and injection rate (as a decision variable). The simulated pressure and CO 2/brine saturation are connected to the fault-leakage model as amore » boundary condition. CO 2 and brine fluxes from the fault-leakage model at the fault outlet are then imposed in the aquifer model as a source term. Moreover, uncertainties are propagated from the deep reservoir model, to the fault-leakage model, and eventually to the geochemical model in the shallow aquifer, thus contributing to risk profiles. To quantify the uncertainties and assess leakage-relevant risk, we propose a global sampling-based method to allocate sub-dimensions of uncertain parameters to sub-models. The risk profiles are defined and related to CO 2 plume development for pH value and total dissolved solids (TDS) below the EPA's Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCL) for drinking water quality. A global sensitivity analysis is conducted to select the most sensitive parameters to the risk profiles. The resulting uncertainty of pH- and TDS-defined aquifer volume, which is impacted by CO 2 and brine leakage, mainly results from the uncertainty of fault permeability. Subsequently, high-resolution, reduced-order models of risk profiles are developed as functions of all the decision variables and uncertain parameters in all three subsystems.« less

Introduced and invasive species in novel rangeland ecosystems: friends or foes?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belnap, Jayne; Ludwig, John A.; Wilcox, Bradford P.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Dean, W. Richard J.; Hoffmann, Benjamin D.; Milton, Sue J.

2012-01-01

Globally, new combinations of introduced and native plant and animal species have changed rangelands into novel ecosystems. Whereas many rangeland stakeholders (people who use or have an interest in rangelands) view intentional species introductions to improve forage and control erosion as beneficial, others focus on unintended costs, such as increased fire risk, loss of rangeland biodiversity, and threats to conservation efforts, specifically in nature reserves and parks. These conflicting views challenge all rangeland stakeholders, especially those making decisions on how best to manage novel ecosystems. To formulate a conceptual framework for decision making, we examined a wide range of novel ecosystems, created by intentional and unintentional introductions of nonnative species and land-use–facilitated spread of native ones. This framework simply divides decision making into two types: 1) straightforward–certain, and 2) complex–uncertain. We argue that management decisions to retain novel ecosystems are certain when goods and services provided by the system far outweigh the costs of restoration, for example in the case of intensively managed Cenchrus pastures. Decisions to return novel ecosystems to natural systems are also certain when the value of the system is low and restoration is easy and inexpensive as in the case of biocontrol of Opuntia infestations. In contrast, decisions whether to retain or restore novel ecosystems become complex and uncertain in cases where benefits are low and costs of control are high as, for example, in the case of stopping the expansion of Prosopis and Juniperus into semiarid rangelands. Decisions to retain or restore novel ecosystems are also complex and uncertain when, for example, nonnative Eucalyptus trees expand along natural streams, negatively affecting biodiversity, but also providing timber and honey. When decision making is complex and uncertain, we suggest that rangeland managers utilize cost–benefit analyses and hold stakeholder workshops to resolve conflicts.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Trainor-Guitten, W. J.

The risk of CO 2 leakage from a deep storage reservoir into a shallow aquifer through a fault is assessed and studied using physics-specific computer models. The hypothetical CO 2 geological sequestration system is composed of three subsystems: a deep storage reservoir, a fault in caprock, and a shallow aquifer, which are modeled respectively by considering sub-domain-specific physics. Supercritical CO 2 is injected into the reservoir subsystem with uncertain permeabilities of reservoir, caprock, and aquifer, uncertain fault location, and injection rate (as a decision variable). The simulated pressure and CO 2/brine saturation are connected to the fault-leakage model as amore » boundary condition. CO 2 and brine fluxes from the fault-leakage model at the fault outlet are then imposed in the aquifer model as a source term. Moreover, uncertainties are propagated from the deep reservoir model, to the fault-leakage model, and eventually to the geochemical model in the shallow aquifer, thus contributing to risk profiles. To quantify the uncertainties and assess leakage-relevant risk, we propose a global sampling-based method to allocate sub-dimensions of uncertain parameters to sub-models. The risk profiles are defined and related to CO 2 plume development for pH value and total dissolved solids (TDS) below the EPA's Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCL) for drinking water quality. A global sensitivity analysis is conducted to select the most sensitive parameters to the risk profiles. The resulting uncertainty of pH- and TDS-defined aquifer volume, which is impacted by CO 2 and brine leakage, mainly results from the uncertainty of fault permeability. Subsequently, high-resolution, reduced-order models of risk profiles are developed as functions of all the decision variables and uncertain parameters in all three subsystems.« less

Application of 2011 American College of Cardiology Foundation/American Society of Echocardiography appropriateness use criteria in hospitalized patients referred for transthoracic echocardiography in a community setting.

PubMed

Ballo, Piercarlo; Bandini, Fabrizio; Capecchi, Irene; Chiodi, Leandro; Ferro, Giuseppe; Fortini, Alberto; Giuliani, Gabriele; Landini, Giancarlo; Laureano, Raffaele; Milli, Massimo; Nenci, Gabriele; Pizzarelli, Francesco; Santoro, Giovanni Maria; Vannelli, Pasquale; Cappelletti, Carlo; Zuppiroli, Alfredo

2012-06-01

A recent American College of Cardiology Foundation and American Society of Echocardiography document updated previous appropriate use criteria (AUC) for echocardiography. The aim of this study was to explore the application of the new AUC, and the resulting appropriateness rate, in hospitalized patients referred for transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) in a community setting. A total of 931 consecutive inpatients referred for TTE were prospectively recruited in five community hospitals. Patients were categorized as having appropriate, uncertain, or inappropriate indications for TTE according to the AUC. An additional group of 259 inpatients, discharged without having been referred for TTE, was also considered. In the group referred for TTE, the large majority of indications (98.8%) were classifiable according to the AUC with good interobserver reproducibility. Indications were appropriate in 739 patients (80.3%), of uncertain appropriateness in 46 (5.0%), and inappropriate in 135 (14.7%). Compared with patients with appropriate or uncertain indications, those with inappropriate indications were younger and more often referred by noncardiologists. Most common causes of inappropriate indications were related to the lack of changes in clinical status or to the absence of cardiovascular symptoms and signs. Examinations with appropriate or uncertain indications had an impact on clinical decision making more often than those with inappropriate indications (86.7% vs 14.1%, P < .0001). In the group discharged without having been referred for TTE, TTE might have been appropriate in 16.2% of cases. Clinical application of the new AUC was highly feasible in a community setting. Although inpatient referral for TTE was appropriate in most patients, strategies aimed at implementing these criteria in clinical practice are desirable. Copyright © 2012 American Society of Echocardiography. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSES FOR INTEGRATED HUMAN HEALTH AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT OF HAZARDOUS WASTE DISPOSAL

EPA Science Inventory

While there is a high potential for exposure of humans and ecosystems to chemicals released from hazardous waste sites, the degree to which this potential is realized is often uncertain. Conceptually divided among parameter, model, and modeler uncertainties imparted during simula...

Adaptability: Conceptual and Empirical Perspectives on Responses to Change, Novelty and Uncertainty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin, Andrew J.; Nejad, Harry; Colmar, Susan; Liem, Gregory Arief D.

2012-01-01

Adaptability is proposed as individuals' capacity to constructively regulate psycho-behavioral functions in response to new, changing, and/or uncertain circumstances, conditions and situations. The present investigation explored the internal and external validity of an hypothesised adaptability scale. The sample comprised 2,731 high school…

SUPPLEMENTAL ULTRAVIOLET-B RADIATION DOES NOT REDUCE GROWTH OR GRAIN YIELD IN RICE

EPA Science Inventory

Negative effects of enhanced UV-B radiation have been demonstrated in plants, but impacts under realistic field conditions remain uncertain. Adverse impacts to major crops, such as rice (Oryza sativa L.), that are grown in areas with currently high ambient levels of UV-B, could h...

Student Characteristics and Motivational and Process Factors in Relation to Styles of Career Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lokan, Janice J.; Biggs, John B.

1982-01-01

Investigated student characteristics in relation to affective and cognitive aspects of adolescent career development. Questionnaire results indicated three styles of career development: intellective or deliberative; concerned and personally involved with high or low aspirations; and uncertain or confused. Suggests motives and strategies that might…

Enhanced representation of soil NO emissions in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 5.0.2

EPA Science Inventory

Modeling of soil nitric oxide (NO) emissions is highly uncertain and may misrepresent its spatial and temporal distribution. This study builds upon a recently introduced parameterization to improve the timing and spatial distribution of soil NO emission estimates in the Community...

DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHTWEIGHT INSTRUMENTATION FOR MEASUREMENT OF LONG-LIVED TRACE GASES

EPA Science Inventory

The ozone budget of the upper troposphere is highly uncertain with respect to both chemistry and dynamical effects. Extensive data in the 6 to 12 km region of the atmosphere is needed to constrain the relative roles of various dynamical processes, such as convection and int...

The Cost and Value of Marketing Analysis. AIR Forum Paper 1978.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thompson, Fred

Product-market planning is an inherently difficult practice. It aims at a match between consumer preference and institutional behavior. Unfortunately, consumer reactions to changes in institutional behavior are often highly uncertain. This paper assumes that institutional planners should neither ignore uncertainty nor seek to avoid all actions…

Application of the Auto-Tuned Land Assimilation System (ATLAS) to ASCAT and SMOS soil moisture retrieval products

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Land data assimilations are typically based on highly uncertain assumptions regarding the statistical structure of observation and modeling errors. Left uncorrected, poor assumptions can degrade the quality of analysis products generated by land data assimilation systems. Recently, Crow and van de...

Quantifying spatial differences in metabolism in headwater streams

Treesearch

Ricardo González-Pinzón; Roy Haggerty; Alba Argerich

2014-01-01

Stream functioning includes simultaneous interaction among solute transport, nutrient processing, and metabolism. Metabolism is measured with methods that have limited spatial representativeness and are highly uncertain. These problems restrict development of methods for up-scaling biological processes that mediate nutrient processing. We used the resazurin–resorufin (...

Modeled Watershed Runoff Associated with Variations in Precipitation Data, with Implications for Contaminant Fluxes: Initial Results

EPA Science Inventory

Precipitation is one of the primary forcing functions of hydrologic and watershed fate and transport models; however, in light of advances in precipitation estimates across watersheds, data remain highly uncertain. A wide variety of simulated and observed precipitation data are a...

Central Libraries in Uncertain Times.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kenney, Brian J.

2001-01-01

Discusses security and safety issues for public libraries, especially high-profile central facilities, in light of the September 11 terrorist attacks. Highlights include inspecting bags as patrons enter as well as exit; the need for security guidelines for any type of disaster or emergency; building design; and the importance of communication.…

"The impact of uncertain threat on affective bias: Individual differences in response to ambiguity": Correction.

PubMed

2018-04-01

Reports an error in "The impact of uncertain threat on affective bias: Individual differences in response to ambiguity" by Maital Neta, Julie Cantelon, Zachary Haga, Caroline R. Mahoney, Holly A. Taylor and F. Caroline Davis ( Emotion , 2017[Dec], Vol 17[8], 1137-1143). In this article, the copyright attribution was incorrectly listed under the Creative Commons CC-BY license due to production-related error. The correct copyright should be "In the public domain." The online version of this article has been corrected. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2017-40275-001.) Individuals who operate under highly stressful conditions (e.g., military personnel and first responders) are often faced with the challenge of quickly interpreting ambiguous information in uncertain and threatening environments. When faced with ambiguity, it is likely adaptive to view potentially dangerous stimuli as threatening until contextual information proves otherwise. One laboratory-based paradigm that can be used to simulate uncertain threat is known as threat of shock (TOS), in which participants are told that they might receive mild but unpredictable electric shocks while performing an unrelated task. The uncertainty associated with this potential threat induces a state of emotional arousal that is not overwhelmingly stressful, but has widespread-both adaptive and maladaptive-effects on cognitive and affective function. For example, TOS is thought to enhance aversive processing and abolish positivity bias. Importantly, in certain situations (e.g., when walking home alone at night), this anxiety can promote an adaptive state of heightened vigilance and defense mobilization. In the present study, we used TOS to examine the effects of uncertain threat on valence bias, or the tendency to interpret ambiguous social cues as positive or negative. As predicted, we found that heightened emotional arousal elicited by TOS was associated with an increased tendency to interpret ambiguous cues negatively. Such negative interpretations are likely adaptive in situations in which threat detection is critical for survival and should override an individual's tendency to interpret ambiguity positively in safe contexts. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Alkali Metal Rankine Cycle Boiler Technology Challenges and Some Potential Solutions for Space Nuclear Power and Propulsion Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stone, James R.

1994-01-01

Alkali metal boilers are of interest for application to future space Rankine cycle power conversion systems. Significant progress on such boilers was accomplished in the 1960's and early 1970's, but development was not continued to operational systems since NASA's plans for future space missions were drastically curtailed in the early 1970's. In particular, piloted Mars missions were indefinitely deferred. With the announcement of the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) in July 1989 by President Bush, interest was rekindled in challenging space missions and, consequently in space nuclear power and propulsion. Nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) and nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) were proposed for interplanetary space vehicles, particularly for Mars missions. The potassium Rankine power conversion cycle became of interest to provide electric power for NEP vehicles and for 'dual-mode' NTP vehicles, where the same reactor could be used directly for propulsion and (with an additional coolant loop) for power. Although the boiler is not a major contributor to system mass, it is of critical importance because of its interaction with the rest of the power conversion system; it can cause problems for other components such as excess liquid droplets entering the turbine, thereby reducing its life, or more critically, it can drive instabilities-some severe enough to cause system failure. Funding for the SEI and its associated technology program from 1990 to 1993 was not sufficient to support significant new work on Rankine cycle boilers for space applications. In Fiscal Year 1994, funding for these challenging missions and technologies has again been curtailed, and planning for the future is very uncertain. The purpose of this paper is to review the technologies developed in the 1960's and 1970's in the light of the recent SEI applications. In this way, future Rankine cycle boiler programs may be conducted most efficiently. This report is aimed at evaluating alkali metal boiler technology for space Rankine cycle systems. Research is summarized on the problems of flow stability, liquid carryover, pressure drop and heat transfer, and on potential solutions developed, primarily those developed by the NASA Lewis Research Center in the 1960's and early 1970's.

Algorithms for sum-of-squares-based stability analysis and control design of uncertain nonlinear systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ataei-Esfahani, Armin

In this dissertation, we present algorithmic procedures for sum-of-squares based stability analysis and control design for uncertain nonlinear systems. In particular, we consider the case of robust aircraft control design for a hypersonic aircraft model subject to parametric uncertainties in its aerodynamic coefficients. In recent years, Sum-of-Squares (SOS) method has attracted increasing interest as a new approach for stability analysis and controller design of nonlinear dynamic systems. Through the application of SOS method, one can describe a stability analysis or control design problem as a convex optimization problem, which can efficiently be solved using Semidefinite Programming (SDP) solvers. For nominal systems, the SOS method can provide a reliable and fast approach for stability analysis and control design for low-order systems defined over the space of relatively low-degree polynomials. However, The SOS method is not well-suited for control problems relating to uncertain systems, specially those with relatively high number of uncertainties or those with non-affine uncertainty structure. In order to avoid issues relating to the increased complexity of the SOS problems for uncertain system, we present an algorithm that can be used to transform an SOS problem with uncertainties into a LMI problem with uncertainties. A new Probabilistic Ellipsoid Algorithm (PEA) is given to solve the robust LMI problem, which can guarantee the feasibility of a given solution candidate with an a-priori fixed probability of violation and with a fixed confidence level. We also introduce two approaches to approximate the robust region of attraction (RROA) for uncertain nonlinear systems with non-affine dependence on uncertainties. The first approach is based on a combination of PEA and SOS method and searches for a common Lyapunov function, while the second approach is based on the generalized Polynomial Chaos (gPC) expansion theorem combined with the SOS method and searches for parameter-dependent Lyapunov functions. The control design problem is investigated through a case study of a hypersonic aircraft model with parametric uncertainties. Through time-scale decomposition and a series of function approximations, the complexity of the aircraft model is reduced to fall within the capability of SDP solvers. The control design problem is then formulated as a convex problem using the dual of the Lyapunov theorem. A nonlinear robust controller is searched using the combined PEA/SOS method. The response of the uncertain aircraft model is evaluated for two sets of pilot commands. As the simulation results show, the aircraft remains stable under up to 50% uncertainty in aerodynamic coefficients and can follow the pilot commands.

Robust Unit Commitment Considering Uncertain Demand Response

DOE PAGES

Liu, Guodong; Tomsovic, Kevin

2014-09-28

Although price responsive demand response has been widely accepted as playing an important role in the reliable and economic operation of power system, the real response from demand side can be highly uncertain due to limited understanding of consumers' response to pricing signals. To model the behavior of consumers, the price elasticity of demand has been explored and utilized in both research and real practice. However, the price elasticity of demand is not precisely known and may vary greatly with operating conditions and types of customers. To accommodate the uncertainty of demand response, alternative unit commitment methods robust to themore » uncertainty of the demand response require investigation. In this paper, a robust unit commitment model to minimize the generalized social cost is proposed for the optimal unit commitment decision taking into account uncertainty of the price elasticity of demand. By optimizing the worst case under proper robust level, the unit commitment solution of the proposed model is robust against all possible realizations of the modeled uncertain demand response. Numerical simulations on the IEEE Reliability Test System show the e ectiveness of the method. Finally, compared to unit commitment with deterministic price elasticity of demand, the proposed robust model can reduce the average Locational Marginal Prices (LMPs) as well as the price volatility.« less

Analysis of Implicit Uncertain Systems. Part 1: Theoretical Framework

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-12-07

Analysis of Implicit Uncertain Systems Part I: Theoretical Framework Fernando Paganini * John Doyle 1 December 7, 1994 Abst rac t This paper...Analysis of Implicit Uncertain Systems Part I: Theoretical Framework 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S...model and a number of constraints relevant to the analysis problem under consideration. In Part I of this paper we propose a theoretical framework which

Research of Uncertainty Reasoning in Pineapple Disease Identification System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Liqun; Fan, Haifeng

In order to deal with the uncertainty of evidences mostly existing in pineapple disease identification system, a reasoning model based on evidence credibility factor was established. The uncertainty reasoning method is discussed,including: uncertain representation of knowledge, uncertain representation of rules, uncertain representation of multi-evidences and update of reasoning rules. The reasoning can fully reflect the uncertainty in disease identification and reduce the influence of subjective factors on the accuracy of the system.

Scheduling in the Face of Uncertain Resource Consumption and Utility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frank, Jeremy; Dearden, Richard

2003-01-01

We discuss the problem of scheduling tasks that consume uncertain amounts of a resource with known capacity and where the tasks have uncertain utility. In these circumstances, we would like to find schedules that exceed a lower bound on the expected utility when executed. We show that the problems are NP- complete, and present some results that characterize the behavior of some simple heuristics over a variety of problem classes.

A linear quadratic regulator approach to the stabilization of uncertain linear systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shieh, L. S.; Sunkel, J. W.; Wang, Y. J.

1990-01-01

This paper presents a linear quadratic regulator approach to the stabilization of uncertain linear systems. The uncertain systems under consideration are described by state equations with the presence of time-varying unknown-but-bounded uncertainty matrices. The method is based on linear quadratic regulator (LQR) theory and Liapunov stability theory. The robust stabilizing control law for a given uncertain system can be easily constructed from the symmetric positive-definite solution of the associated augmented Riccati equation. The proposed approach can be applied to matched and/or mismatched systems with uncertainty matrices in which only their matrix norms are bounded by some prescribed values and/or their entries are bounded by some prescribed constraint sets. Several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the results.

NASA Human Spaceflight Scenarios - Do All Our Models Still Say No?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zapata, Edgar

2017-01-01

Historically, NASA human spaceflight planning has included healthy doses of life cycle cost analysis. Planners put projects and their cost estimates in a budget context. Estimated costs became expected budgets. Regardless, real budgets rarely matched expectations. So plans would come and go as NASA canceled projects. New projects would arise and the cycle would begin again. Repeatedly, NASA schedule and performance ambitions come up against costs growing at double-digit rates while budgets barely rise a couple of percent a year. Significant skepticism greets proposed NASA programs at birth, as cost estimates for new projects are traditionally very high, and worse, far off the mark for those carried forward. In this environment the current "capability driven framework" for NASA human spaceflight evolved, where long term life cycle cost analysis are even viewed as possibly counter-productive. Here, a space exploration project, for example the Space Launch System, focuses on immediate goals. A life cycle is that of a project, not a program, and for only that span of time to a near term milestone like a first test launch. Unfortunately, attempting to avoid some pitfalls in long-term life cycle cost analysis breeds others. Government audits have noted that limiting the scope of cost analysis "does not provide the transparency necessary to assess long-term affordability" making it difficult to understand if NASA "is progressing in a cost-effective and affordable manner." Even in this short-term framework, NASA realizes the importance of long-term considerations, that it must "maximize the efficiency and sustainability of the Exploration Systems development programs", that this is "critical to free resources for re-investment...such as other required deep space exploration capabilities." Assuming the value of long-term life cycle cost analysis, where due diligence meets reconnaissance, and accepting past shortcomings, the work here approaches life cycle cost analysis for human spaceflight differently. 1) If costs have traditionally been so high that adding them up is discouraging, are there any new facts on the ground offering paths to significantly lower costs? 2) If NASA's spaceflight budget and process is an over-arching constraint, with its planning limitations favoring short-term outlooks, is there a way to step outside the budget box? 3) If life cycle answers have historically been too uncertain to be useful, is there a process where stakeholders gain valuable insights merely from emphasizing a common understanding around questions? We analyze the potential life cycle cost of assorted NASA human spaceflight architectures - an architecture as a sum of individual systems, working together. With the prior questions of high costs, limited budgets and uncertainties in mind, public private partnerships are central in these architectures. The cost data for current commercial public private partnerships is encouraging, as are cost estimates for future partnership approaches beyond low Earth orbit. Private capital, directly or indirectly, an ingredient of public private partnerships, may be a significant factor in finding a path around the limits of the NASA spaceflight budget. Also, understanding and reviewing the pros, cons and uncertainties of assorted architectures can assist in developing a common understanding around key questions as important if not more so than the numbers and answers. Lastly, a scenario planning technique is briefly explored that can mature a common understanding about the agencies situation at hand and how diverse stakeholders can go forward together. Scenario planning, rather than focusing on answers, places emphasis on stakeholders developing a common understanding about the future. Putting aside costs, this is especially true of questions about sustainability and growth, results, benefits and expectations. While efficiency exercises or analysis look to reduce resources in one place to apply them elsewhere, moving around slices in a pie, scenario planning can get at the heart of the matter, growing the pie, transforming it, and making the pieces relevant. Especially important is the question of sustainability for different scenarios in the broad sense of the word - not just the narrow ability to survive or continue, but also the ability to adapt, prosper and grow.

Marine-to-lacustrine transition, mud volcanism, and slope instability in an active tectonic setting: the MIS 5 to 4 transition in the Sea of Marmara, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grall, Céline; Henry, Pierre; Kendé, Julia; Namık Çaǧatay, M.; Kadir Eriş, K.; Paillès, Christine; Sorlien, Christopher; Shillington, Donna; McHugh, Cecilia; Steckler, Michael; Çifçi, Günay; Géli, Louis

2016-04-01

In the Sea of Marmara, glacio-eustatic cycles set the tempo of a complex history of disconnection and reconnection with the Black Sea and with the global ocean through the Mediterranean Sea. As a result, the sedimentary record consists of alternating high stand marine sediments and lowstand sea or lake sediments. The Sea of Marmara is also an active transtensional basin along the Northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault (NNAF), which accommodates most (~3/4) of the 21-27 mm/a dextral slip between Eurasia and Anatolia. This peculiar setting makes the Sea of Marmara an exceptional site to study the interplay of paleo-environmental factors and seismotectonic processes. Notably, Mass Transport Deposits (MTDs) crossing the faults provide offset markers although their age remains uncertain. A high resolution seismic stratigraphic model has been proposed for 100 ka glacial cycles, based on onlap sequences within basins, and paleo-deltas at shorelines. The sedimentation rate in basins decreases during episodes of sea-level rise and reach maximum values during low stands. Remarkably, seismic reflector sequences display nearly identical character for locations with similar sedimentation rate. The uppermost sequence boundary reflector (Red-H1) has been recently cored at several locations during MARSITECRUISE (Ifremer R/V Pourquoi Pas?, Oct-Nov. 2014), enabled us to correlate high resolution seismic data with core data. The Red-H1 reflector is regionally characterized by a high amplitude and a reverse polarity. Correlations between seismic data and piston core logs indicate that the reverse polarity of this reflector may be explained by a negative density contrast between lacustrine sediments above and a greenish sapropellic layer of several meters thickness below. On shelves, Red-H1 is on top of the low stand wedge. On slopes and topographic highs, Red-H1 appears as an erosional surface laterally correlative with an onlapping unit in basins and is frequently overlain by MTDs. At the transition from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 to 4, sea-level fell from 25 to 85 m below the modern sea-level resulting in the disconnection of the Sea of Marmara. Sapropels deposited on the shelf before the disconnection and are attributed to MIS-5 (Cagatay et al. 2009). Grall et al, (2014) proposed that MTDs found above the Red-H1 were deposited at the beginning of MIS-4 at ~70 ka and that MTD complexes found during earlier glacial cycles also accumulated after marine to lacustrine-disconnections, possibly in relation with hydrate dissociation and/or clay swelling. Buried mud volcanoes located within the NNAF damage zone pierce the Red-H1 reflector but not the reflector above, suggesting that the last main eruption may also happens at the beginning of MIS-4. We will present preliminary assessment of the paleoenvironmental changes across the MIS-5 to 4 transition from bio-indicators and geochemistry.

A modified hybrid uncertain analysis method for dynamic response field of the LSOAAC with random and interval parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zi, Bin; Zhou, Bin

2016-07-01

For the prediction of dynamic response field of the luffing system of an automobile crane (LSOAAC) with random and interval parameters, a hybrid uncertain model is introduced. In the hybrid uncertain model, the parameters with certain probability distribution are modeled as random variables, whereas, the parameters with lower and upper bounds are modeled as interval variables instead of given precise values. Based on the hybrid uncertain model, the hybrid uncertain dynamic response equilibrium equation, in which different random and interval parameters are simultaneously included in input and output terms, is constructed. Then a modified hybrid uncertain analysis method (MHUAM) is proposed. In the MHUAM, based on random interval perturbation method, the first-order Taylor series expansion and the first-order Neumann series, the dynamic response expression of the LSOAAC is developed. Moreover, the mathematical characteristics of extrema of bounds of dynamic response are determined by random interval moment method and monotonic analysis technique. Compared with the hybrid Monte Carlo method (HMCM) and interval perturbation method (IPM), numerical results show the feasibility and efficiency of the MHUAM for solving the hybrid LSOAAC problems. The effects of different uncertain models and parameters on the LSOAAC response field are also investigated deeply, and numerical results indicate that the impact made by the randomness in the thrust of the luffing cylinder F is larger than that made by the gravity of the weight in suspension Q . In addition, the impact made by the uncertainty in the displacement between the lower end of the lifting arm and the luffing cylinder a is larger than that made by the length of the lifting arm L .

MAGDM linear-programming models with distinct uncertain preference structures.

PubMed

Xu, Zeshui S; Chen, Jian

2008-10-01

Group decision making with preference information on alternatives is an interesting and important research topic which has been receiving more and more attention in recent years. The purpose of this paper is to investigate multiple-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) problems with distinct uncertain preference structures. We develop some linear-programming models for dealing with the MAGDM problems, where the information about attribute weights is incomplete, and the decision makers have their preferences on alternatives. The provided preference information can be represented in the following three distinct uncertain preference structures: 1) interval utility values; 2) interval fuzzy preference relations; and 3) interval multiplicative preference relations. We first establish some linear-programming models based on decision matrix and each of the distinct uncertain preference structures and, then, develop some linear-programming models to integrate all three structures of subjective uncertain preference information provided by the decision makers and the objective information depicted in the decision matrix. Furthermore, we propose a simple and straightforward approach in ranking and selecting the given alternatives. It is worth pointing out that the developed models can also be used to deal with the situations where the three distinct uncertain preference structures are reduced to the traditional ones, i.e., utility values, fuzzy preference relations, and multiplicative preference relations. Finally, we use a practical example to illustrate in detail the calculation process of the developed approach.

Processing uncertain RFID data in traceability supply chains.

PubMed

Xie, Dong; Xiao, Jie; Guo, Guangjun; Jiang, Tong

2014-01-01

Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) is widely used to track and trace objects in traceability supply chains. However, massive uncertain data produced by RFID readers are not effective and efficient to be used in RFID application systems. Following the analysis of key features of RFID objects, this paper proposes a new framework for effectively and efficiently processing uncertain RFID data, and supporting a variety of queries for tracking and tracing RFID objects. We adjust different smoothing windows according to different rates of uncertain data, employ different strategies to process uncertain readings, and distinguish ghost, missing, and incomplete data according to their apparent positions. We propose a comprehensive data model which is suitable for different application scenarios. In addition, a path coding scheme is proposed to significantly compress massive data by aggregating the path sequence, the position, and the time intervals. The scheme is suitable for cyclic or long paths. Moreover, we further propose a processing algorithm for group and independent objects. Experimental evaluations show that our approach is effective and efficient in terms of the compression and traceability queries.

Processing Uncertain RFID Data in Traceability Supply Chains

PubMed Central

Xie, Dong; Xiao, Jie

2014-01-01

Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) is widely used to track and trace objects in traceability supply chains. However, massive uncertain data produced by RFID readers are not effective and efficient to be used in RFID application systems. Following the analysis of key features of RFID objects, this paper proposes a new framework for effectively and efficiently processing uncertain RFID data, and supporting a variety of queries for tracking and tracing RFID objects. We adjust different smoothing windows according to different rates of uncertain data, employ different strategies to process uncertain readings, and distinguish ghost, missing, and incomplete data according to their apparent positions. We propose a comprehensive data model which is suitable for different application scenarios. In addition, a path coding scheme is proposed to significantly compress massive data by aggregating the path sequence, the position, and the time intervals. The scheme is suitable for cyclic or long paths. Moreover, we further propose a processing algorithm for group and independent objects. Experimental evaluations show that our approach is effective and efficient in terms of the compression and traceability queries. PMID:24737978

Assessing cost-effectiveness of bioretention on stormwater in response to climate change and urbanization for future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Mo; Zhang, Dongqing; Adhityan, Appan; Ng, Wun Jern; Dong, Jianwen; Tan, Soon Keat

2016-12-01

Bioretention, as a popular low impact development practice, has become more important to mitigate adverse impacts on urban stormwater. However, there is very limited information regarding ensuring the effectiveness of bioretention response to uncertain future challenges, especially when taking into consideration climate change and urbanization. The main objective of this paper is to identify the cost-effectiveness of bioretention by assessing the hydrology performance under future scenarios modeling. First, the hydrology model was used to obtain peak runoff and TSS loads of bioretention with variable scales under different scenarios, i.e., different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-economic reference Pathways (SSPs) for 2-year and 10-year design storms in Singapore. Then, life cycle costing (LCC) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were estimated for bioretention, and the cost-effectiveness was identified under different scenarios. Our finding showed that there were different degree of responses to 2-year and 10-year design storms but the general patterns and insights deduced were similar. The performance of bioretenion was more sensitive to urbanization than that for climate change in the urban catchment. In addition, it was noted that the methodology used in this study was generic and the findings could be useful as reference for other LID practices in response to climate change and urbanization.

Bayesian inference of nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics from aeroelastic limit cycle oscillations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandhu, Rimple; Poirel, Dominique; Pettit, Chris; Khalil, Mohammad; Sarkar, Abhijit

2016-07-01

A Bayesian model selection and parameter estimation algorithm is applied to investigate the influence of nonlinear and unsteady aerodynamic loads on the limit cycle oscillation (LCO) of a pitching airfoil in the transitional Reynolds number regime. At small angles of attack, laminar boundary layer trailing edge separation causes negative aerodynamic damping leading to the LCO. The fluid-structure interaction of the rigid, but elastically mounted, airfoil and nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics is represented by two coupled nonlinear stochastic ordinary differential equations containing uncertain parameters and model approximation errors. Several plausible aerodynamic models with increasing complexity are proposed to describe the aeroelastic system leading to LCO. The likelihood in the posterior parameter probability density function (pdf) is available semi-analytically using the extended Kalman filter for the state estimation of the coupled nonlinear structural and unsteady aerodynamic model. The posterior parameter pdf is sampled using a parallel and adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The posterior probability of each model is estimated using the Chib-Jeliazkov method that directly uses the posterior MCMC samples for evidence (marginal likelihood) computation. The Bayesian algorithm is validated through a numerical study and then applied to model the nonlinear unsteady aerodynamic loads using wind-tunnel test data at various Reynolds numbers.

Comparison of Vehicle-Broadcasted Fuel Consumption Rates against Precise Fuel Measurements for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles and Engines

DOE PAGES

Pink, Alex; Ragatz, Adam; Wang, Lijuan; ...

2017-03-28

Vehicles continuously report real-time fuel consumption estimates over their data bus, known as the controller area network (CAN). However, the accuracy of these fueling estimates is uncertain to researchers who collect these data from any given vehicle. To assess the accuracy of these estimates, CAN-reported fuel consumption data are compared against fuel measurements from precise instrumentation. The data analyzed consisted of eight medium/heavy-duty vehicles and two medium-duty engines. Varying discrepancies between CAN fueling rates and the more accurate measurements emerged but without a vehicular trend-for some vehicles the CAN under-reported fuel consumption and for others the CAN over-reported fuel consumption.more » Furthermore, a qualitative real-time analysis revealed that the operating conditions under which these fueling discrepancies arose varied among vehicles. A drive cycle analysis revealed that while CAN fueling estimate accuracy differs for individual vehicles, that CAN estimates capture the relative fuel consumption differences between drive cycles within 4% for all vehicles and even more accurately for some vehicles. Furthermore, in situations where only CAN-reported data are available, CAN fueling estimates can provide relative fuel consumption trends but not accurate or precise fuel consumption rates.« less

Comparison of Vehicle-Broadcasted Fuel Consumption Rates against Precise Fuel Measurements for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles and Engines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pink, Alex; Ragatz, Adam; Wang, Lijuan

Vehicles continuously report real-time fuel consumption estimates over their data bus, known as the controller area network (CAN). However, the accuracy of these fueling estimates is uncertain to researchers who collect these data from any given vehicle. To assess the accuracy of these estimates, CAN-reported fuel consumption data are compared against fuel measurements from precise instrumentation. The data analyzed consisted of eight medium/heavy-duty vehicles and two medium-duty engines. Varying discrepancies between CAN fueling rates and the more accurate measurements emerged but without a vehicular trend-for some vehicles the CAN under-reported fuel consumption and for others the CAN over-reported fuel consumption.more » Furthermore, a qualitative real-time analysis revealed that the operating conditions under which these fueling discrepancies arose varied among vehicles. A drive cycle analysis revealed that while CAN fueling estimate accuracy differs for individual vehicles, that CAN estimates capture the relative fuel consumption differences between drive cycles within 4% for all vehicles and even more accurately for some vehicles. Furthermore, in situations where only CAN-reported data are available, CAN fueling estimates can provide relative fuel consumption trends but not accurate or precise fuel consumption rates.« less

Bayesian inference of nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics from aeroelastic limit cycle oscillations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sandhu, Rimple; Poirel, Dominique; Pettit, Chris

2016-07-01

A Bayesian model selection and parameter estimation algorithm is applied to investigate the influence of nonlinear and unsteady aerodynamic loads on the limit cycle oscillation (LCO) of a pitching airfoil in the transitional Reynolds number regime. At small angles of attack, laminar boundary layer trailing edge separation causes negative aerodynamic damping leading to the LCO. The fluid–structure interaction of the rigid, but elastically mounted, airfoil and nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics is represented by two coupled nonlinear stochastic ordinary differential equations containing uncertain parameters and model approximation errors. Several plausible aerodynamic models with increasing complexity are proposed to describe the aeroelastic systemmore » leading to LCO. The likelihood in the posterior parameter probability density function (pdf) is available semi-analytically using the extended Kalman filter for the state estimation of the coupled nonlinear structural and unsteady aerodynamic model. The posterior parameter pdf is sampled using a parallel and adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The posterior probability of each model is estimated using the Chib–Jeliazkov method that directly uses the posterior MCMC samples for evidence (marginal likelihood) computation. The Bayesian algorithm is validated through a numerical study and then applied to model the nonlinear unsteady aerodynamic loads using wind-tunnel test data at various Reynolds numbers.« less

Effects of transfer of embryos independently cultured in essential and sequential culture media on pregnancy rates in assisted reproduction cycles.

PubMed

Geber, Selmo; Bossi, Renata; Guimarães, Fernando; Valle, Marcello; Sampaio, Marcos

2012-10-01

Several culture media are available to be used in ART. However it is uncertain whether embryos would preferably benefit from one type of medium or the association of different media. We performed this study to evaluate the impact of simultaneous transfer of embryos independently cultured in two distinct culture media, on pregnancy outcome. A total of 722 couples who underwent infertility treatment were sequentially allocated into three groups: those who had half of the embryos individually cultured in MEM and the other half cultured in sequential media (MEM + Seq Group) (n = 243); those who had all embryos cultured only in sequential medium (Seq Group) (n = 239); and those who had all embryos cultured only in MEM (MEM Group) (n = 240). The pregnancy rate was higher in the MEM + Seq group (51.8 %) than the Seq group (36.7 %) (p < 0.001). However the pregnancy rate observed in the MEM group was similar to the others (44.2 %). When a logistic regression test was applied it demonstrated that the number of transferred embryos did not interfere in the pregnancy rates. Our results suggests that offering different culture conditions for sibling embryos with subsequent transfer of embryos that were kept in distinct culture media, might increase pregnancy rates in assisted reproduction cycles.

An adaptive response to uncertainty can lead to weight gain during dieting attempts

PubMed Central

Higginson, A. D.; McNamara, J. M.

2016-01-01

Background and objectives: Peoples’ attempts to lose weight by low calorie diets often result in weight gain because of over-compensatory overeating during lapses. Animals usually respond to a change in food availability by adjusting their foraging effort and altering how much energy reserves they store. But in many situations the long-term availability of food is uncertain, so animals may attempt to estimate it to decide the appropriate level of fat storage. Methodology: We report the results of a conceptual model of feeding in which the animal knows whether food is currently abundant or limited, but does not know the proportion of time, there will be an abundance in the long-term and has to learn it. Results: If the food supply is limited much of the time, such as during cycles of dieting attempts, the optimal response is to gain a lot of weight when food is abundant. Conclusions and implications: This implies that recurring attempts to diet, by signalling to the body that the food supply is often insufficient, will lead to a greater fat storage than if food was always abundant. Our results shed light on the widespread phenomenon of weight gain during weight cycling and indicate possible interventions that may reduce the incidence of obesity. PMID:27920041

An Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm for Uncertain Portfolio Selection

PubMed Central

Chen, Wei

2014-01-01

Portfolio selection is an important issue for researchers and practitioners. In this paper, under the assumption that security returns are given by experts' evaluations rather than historical data, we discuss the portfolio adjusting problem which takes transaction costs and diversification degree of portfolio into consideration. Uncertain variables are employed to describe the security returns. In the proposed mean-variance-entropy model, the uncertain mean value of the return is used to measure investment return, the uncertain variance of the return is used to measure investment risk, and the entropy is used to measure diversification degree of portfolio. In order to solve the proposed model, a modified artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm is designed. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the modelling idea and the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. PMID:25089292

An artificial bee colony algorithm for uncertain portfolio selection.

PubMed

Chen, Wei

2014-01-01

Portfolio selection is an important issue for researchers and practitioners. In this paper, under the assumption that security returns are given by experts' evaluations rather than historical data, we discuss the portfolio adjusting problem which takes transaction costs and diversification degree of portfolio into consideration. Uncertain variables are employed to describe the security returns. In the proposed mean-variance-entropy model, the uncertain mean value of the return is used to measure investment return, the uncertain variance of the return is used to measure investment risk, and the entropy is used to measure diversification degree of portfolio. In order to solve the proposed model, a modified artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm is designed. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the modelling idea and the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Mining of high utility-probability sequential patterns from uncertain databases

PubMed Central

Zhang, Binbin; Fournier-Viger, Philippe; Li, Ting

2017-01-01

High-utility sequential pattern mining (HUSPM) has become an important issue in the field of data mining. Several HUSPM algorithms have been designed to mine high-utility sequential patterns (HUPSPs). They have been applied in several real-life situations such as for consumer behavior analysis and event detection in sensor networks. Nonetheless, most studies on HUSPM have focused on mining HUPSPs in precise data. But in real-life, uncertainty is an important factor as data is collected using various types of sensors that are more or less accurate. Hence, data collected in a real-life database can be annotated with existing probabilities. This paper presents a novel pattern mining framework called high utility-probability sequential pattern mining (HUPSPM) for mining high utility-probability sequential patterns (HUPSPs) in uncertain sequence databases. A baseline algorithm with three optional pruning strategies is presented to mine HUPSPs. Moroever, to speed up the mining process, a projection mechanism is designed to create a database projection for each processed sequence, which is smaller than the original database. Thus, the number of unpromising candidates can be greatly reduced, as well as the execution time for mining HUPSPs. Substantial experiments both on real-life and synthetic datasets show that the designed algorithm performs well in terms of runtime, number of candidates, memory usage, and scalability for different minimum utility and minimum probability thresholds. PMID:28742847

77 FR 70551 - Highly Migratory Species; Atlantic Shark Management Measures

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-26

... uncertain. The Southeast Fisheries Science Center addressed the questions from the peer reviewers in a post... condition. The stock assessment scientists showed in the post-review updates and projections document that... lb dw in the Gulf of Mexico. Using the ex-vessel prices described in the DEIS under Alternative Suite...

When ranchers don't know what to do: Care and rangeland management decision-making under uncertainity

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This presentation asks: how do ranchers know what to do when they are faced with a decision under high levels of complexity and uncertainty? In the semi-arid Western Great Plains of North America, rancher decisions have implications for rangeland ecosystems and for livelihoods. Adaptive management r...

Isotopic signals of summer denitrification in a northern hardwood forested catchment

Treesearch

Sarah K. Wexler; Christine L. Goodale; Kevin J. McGuire; Scott W. Bailey; Peter M. Groffman

2014-01-01

Despite decades of measurements, the nitrogen balance of temperate forest catchments remains poorly understood. Atmospheric nitrogen deposition often greatly exceeds streamwater nitrogen losses; the fate of the remaining nitrogen is highly uncertain. Gaseous losses of nitrogen to denitrification are especially poorly documented and are often ignored. Here, we provide...

Unintended Consequences: An Uncertain Future for Distance Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Halfond, Jay A.

2011-01-01

While most in the academic community know about the attempt to rein in the for-profits, few are aware of its collateral damage. In October, the Department of Education (DOE) issued its Program Integrity Rules, intended to protect federal funds especially from those for-profit institutions with high student loan default rates. Well-intentioned…

Adaptive economic and ecological forest management under risk

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; Mo Zhou

2015-01-01

Background: Forest managers must deal with inherently stochastic ecological and economic processes. The future growth of trees is uncertain, and so is their value. The randomness of low-impact, high frequency or rare catastrophic shocks in forest growth has significant implications in shaping the mix of tree species and the forest landscape...

Teacher Preparation: Reforming the Uncertain Profession

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duncan, Arne

2010-01-01

In this paper, the Arne Duncan, the United States Secretary of Education, discusses the need for a sea change in America's schools of education, and focuses on the need to improve teacher preparation programs. Many schools of education have provided high-quality preparation programs for aspiring teachers for years. In the last decade, many…

Pembroke Academy Freshman Advisor Handbook. 1st Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stehno, Joseph J.

Students entering high school as freshmen bring with them a variety of issues, problems and strengths. Often, students are uncertain about their academic abilities, their social-selves, and their chances of success in a new environment. Even freshmen with positive educational experiences and a strong sense of self-need support and guidance during…

Post-Observation Conferences with Bilingual Pre-Service Teachers: Revoicing and Rehearsing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wall, Dorothy J.; Hurie, Andrew H.

2017-01-01

Pre-service teachers need support in developing their teacher identities as they navigate the uncertain and complex terrain of student teaching and face the pressures of high-stakes accountability. This support is particularly important for bilingual pre-service teachers as they negotiate the many complexities of the bilingual classroom, and as…

The Future of Evapotranspiration: Global requirements for ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The fate of the terrestrial biosphere is highly uncertain given recent and projected changes in climate. This is especially acute for impacts associated with changes in drought frequency and intensity on the distribution and timing of water availability. The development of effective adaptation strat...

Introducing Subgrid-scale convective cloud and aerosol interactions to the WRF-CMAQ integrated modeling system

EPA Science Inventory

Many regional and global climate models include aerosol indirect effects (AIE) on grid-scale/resolved clouds. However, the interaction between aerosols and convective clouds remains highly uncertain, as noted in the IPCC AR4 report. The objective of this work is to help fill in ...

Preserving and Strengthening Together: Collective Strategies of U.S.Women's College Presidents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thomas, Auden D.

2008-01-01

Women's colleges in the 1970s and 1980s faced highly uncertain futures. Soaring popularity of coeducation left them with serious enrollment downturns, and challenges from proposed equal rights legislation threatened to render illegal their single-sex admissions policies. These perilous external conditions drew together the presidents of U.S.…

The High Costs and Doubtful Efficacy of Extended Teacher-Preparation Programs: An Invitation to More Basic Reforms.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hawley, Willis D.

1987-01-01

Extended programs are likely to reduce the quality and quantity of teachers and probably will not improve teacher performance. Because the risks of extended programs are great and the benefits uncertain, other strategies for improving teacher education should be explored more aggressively. (Author/LHW)

Study on Material Parameters Identification of Brain Tissue Considering Uncertainty of Friction Coefficient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Fengjiao; Zhang, Guanjun; Liu, Jie; Wang, Shujing; Luo, Xu; Zhu, Feng

2017-10-01

Accurate material parameters are critical to construct the high biofidelity finite element (FE) models. However, it is hard to obtain the brain tissue parameters accurately because of the effects of irregular geometry and uncertain boundary conditions. Considering the complexity of material test and the uncertainty of friction coefficient, a computational inverse method for viscoelastic material parameters identification of brain tissue is presented based on the interval analysis method. Firstly, the intervals are used to quantify the friction coefficient in the boundary condition. And then the inverse problem of material parameters identification under uncertain friction coefficient is transformed into two types of deterministic inverse problem. Finally the intelligent optimization algorithm is used to solve the two types of deterministic inverse problems quickly and accurately, and the range of material parameters can be easily acquired with no need of a variety of samples. The efficiency and convergence of this method are demonstrated by the material parameters identification of thalamus. The proposed method provides a potential effective tool for building high biofidelity human finite element model in the study of traffic accident injury.

The Role of Intelligence in Social Learning.

PubMed

Vostroknutov, Alexander; Polonio, Luca; Coricelli, Giorgio

2018-05-02

Studies in cultural evolution have uncovered many types of social learning strategies that are adaptive in certain environments. The efficiency of these strategies also depends on the individual characteristics of both the observer and the demonstrator. We investigate the relationship between intelligence and the ways social and individual information is utilised to make decisions in an uncertain environment. We measure fluid intelligence and study experimentally how individuals learn from observing the choices of a demonstrator in a 2-armed bandit problem with changing probabilities of a reward. Participants observe a demonstrator with high or low fluid intelligence. In some treatments they are aware of the intelligence score of the demonstrator and in others they are not. Low fluid intelligence individuals imitate the demonstrator more when her fluid intelligence is known than when it is not. Conversely, individuals with high fluid intelligence adjust their use of social information, as the observed behaviour changes, independently of the knowledge of the intelligence of the demonstrator. We provide evidence that intelligence determines how social and individual information is integrated in order to make choices in a changing uncertain environment.

Simulating the impacts of disturbances on forest carbon cycling in North America: Processes, data, models, and challenges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liu, Shuguang; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Vargas, Rodrigo; Zhao, Shuqing; Chen, Jing; Edburg, Steven L.; Hu, Yueming; Liu, Jinxun; McGuire, A. David; Xiao, Jingfeng; Keane, Robert; Yuan, Wenping; Tang, Jianwu; Luo, Yiqi; Potter, Christopher; Oeding, Jennifer

2011-01-01

Forest disturbances greatly alter the carbon cycle at various spatial and temporal scales. It is critical to understand disturbance regimes and their impacts to better quantify regional and global carbon dynamics. This review of the status and major challenges in representing the impacts of disturbances in modeling the carbon dynamics across North America revealed some major advances and challenges. First, significant advances have been made in representation, scaling, and characterization of disturbances that should be included in regional modeling efforts. Second, there is a need to develop effective and comprehensive process‐based procedures and algorithms to quantify the immediate and long‐term impacts of disturbances on ecosystem succession, soils, microclimate, and cycles of carbon, water, and nutrients. Third, our capability to simulate the occurrences and severity of disturbances is very limited. Fourth, scaling issues have rarely been addressed in continental scale model applications. It is not fully understood which finer scale processes and properties need to be scaled to coarser spatial and temporal scales. Fifth, there are inadequate databases on disturbances at the continental scale to support the quantification of their effects on the carbon balance in North America. Finally, procedures are needed to quantify the uncertainty of model inputs, model parameters, and model structures, and thus to estimate their impacts on overall model uncertainty. Working together, the scientific community interested in disturbance and its impacts can identify the most uncertain issues surrounding the role of disturbance in the North American carbon budget and develop working hypotheses to reduce the uncertainty

Valuation of plug-in vehicle life-cycle air emissions and oil displacement benefits

PubMed Central

Michalek, Jeremy J.; Chester, Mikhail; Jaramillo, Paulina; Samaras, Constantine; Shiau, Ching-Shin Norman; Lave, Lester B.

2011-01-01

We assess the economic value of life-cycle air emissions and oil consumption from conventional vehicles, hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles in the US. We find that plug-in vehicles may reduce or increase externality costs relative to grid-independent HEVs, depending largely on greenhouse gas and SO2 emissions produced during vehicle charging and battery manufacturing. However, even if future marginal damages from emissions of battery and electricity production drop dramatically, the damage reduction potential of plug-in vehicles remains small compared to ownership cost. As such, to offer a socially efficient approach to emissions and oil consumption reduction, lifetime cost of plug-in vehicles must be competitive with HEVs. Current subsidies intended to encourage sales of plug-in vehicles with large capacity battery packs exceed our externality estimates considerably, and taxes that optimally correct for externality damages would not close the gap in ownership cost. In contrast, HEVs and PHEVs with small battery packs reduce externality damages at low (or no) additional cost over their lifetime. Although large battery packs allow vehicles to travel longer distances using electricity instead of gasoline, large packs are more expensive, heavier, and more emissions intensive to produce, with lower utilization factors, greater charging infrastructure requirements, and life-cycle implications that are more sensitive to uncertain, time-sensitive, and location-specific factors. To reduce air emission and oil dependency impacts from passenger vehicles, strategies to promote adoption of HEVs and PHEVs with small battery packs offer more social benefits per dollar spent. PMID:21949359

Valuation of plug-in vehicle life-cycle air emissions and oil displacement benefits.

PubMed

Michalek, Jeremy J; Chester, Mikhail; Jaramillo, Paulina; Samaras, Constantine; Shiau, Ching-Shin Norman; Lave, Lester B

2011-10-04

We assess the economic value of life-cycle air emissions and oil consumption from conventional vehicles, hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles in the US. We find that plug-in vehicles may reduce or increase externality costs relative to grid-independent HEVs, depending largely on greenhouse gas and SO(2) emissions produced during vehicle charging and battery manufacturing. However, even if future marginal damages from emissions of battery and electricity production drop dramatically, the damage reduction potential of plug-in vehicles remains small compared to ownership cost. As such, to offer a socially efficient approach to emissions and oil consumption reduction, lifetime cost of plug-in vehicles must be competitive with HEVs. Current subsidies intended to encourage sales of plug-in vehicles with large capacity battery packs exceed our externality estimates considerably, and taxes that optimally correct for externality damages would not close the gap in ownership cost. In contrast, HEVs and PHEVs with small battery packs reduce externality damages at low (or no) additional cost over their lifetime. Although large battery packs allow vehicles to travel longer distances using electricity instead of gasoline, large packs are more expensive, heavier, and more emissions intensive to produce, with lower utilization factors, greater charging infrastructure requirements, and life-cycle implications that are more sensitive to uncertain, time-sensitive, and location-specific factors. To reduce air emission and oil dependency impacts from passenger vehicles, strategies to promote adoption of HEVs and PHEVs with small battery packs offer more social benefits per dollar spent.

Voluntary running exercise prevents β-cell failure in susceptible islets of the Zucker diabetic fatty rat.

PubMed

Delghingaro-Augusto, Viviane; Décary, Simon; Peyot, Marie-Line; Latour, Martin G; Lamontagne, Julien; Paradis-Isler, Nicolas; Lacharité-Lemieux, Marianne; Akakpo, Huguette; Birot, Olivier; Nolan, Christopher J; Prentki, Marc; Bergeron, Raynald

2012-01-15

Physical activity improves glycemic control in type 2 diabetes (T2D), but its contribution to preserving β-cell function is uncertain. We evaluated the role of physical activity on β-cell secretory function and glycerolipid/fatty acid (GL/FA) cycling in male Zucker diabetic fatty (ZDF) rats. Six-week-old ZDF rats engaged in voluntary running for 6 wk (ZDF-A). Inactive Zucker lean and ZDF (ZDF-I) rats served as controls. ZDF-I rats displayed progressive hyperglycemia with β-cell failure evidenced by falling insulinemia and reduced insulin secretion to oral glucose. Isolated ZDF-I rat islets showed reduced glucose-stimulated insulin secretion expressed per islet and per islet protein. They were also characterized by loss of the glucose regulation of fatty acid oxidation and GL/FA cycling, reduced mRNA expression of key β-cell genes, and severe reduction of insulin stores. Physical activity prevented diabetes in ZDF rats through sustaining β-cell compensation to insulin resistance shown in vivo and in vitro. Surprisingly, ZDF-A islets had persistent defects in fatty acid oxidation, GL/FA cycling, and β-cell gene expression. ZDF-A islets, however, had preserved islet insulin mRNA and insulin stores compared with ZDF-I rats. Physical activity did not prevent hyperphagia, dyslipidemia, or obesity in ZDF rats. In conclusion, islets of ZDF rats have a susceptibility to failure that is possibly due to altered β-cell fatty acid metabolism. Depletion of pancreatic islet insulin stores is a major contributor to islet failure in this T2D model, preventable by physical activity.

Formal Consistency Verification of Deliberative Agents with Respect to Communication Protocols

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramirez, Jaime; deAntonio, Angelica

2004-01-01

The aim of this paper is to show a method that is able to detect inconsistencies in the reasoning carried out by a deliberative agent. The agent is supposed to be provided with a hybrid Knowledge Base expressed in a language called CCR-2, based on production rules and hierarchies of frames, which permits the representation of non-monotonic reasoning, uncertain reasoning and arithmetic constraints in the rules. The method can give a specification of the scenarios in which the agent would deduce an inconsistency. We define a scenario to be a description of the initial agent s state (in the agent life cycle), a deductive tree of rule firings, and a partially ordered set of messages and/or stimuli that the agent must receive from other agents and/or the environment. Moreover, the method will make sure that the scenarios will be valid w.r.t. the communication protocols in which the agent is involved.

On the development of a reactive sensor-based robotic system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hexmoor, Henry H.; Underwood, William E., Jr.

1989-01-01

Flexible robotic systems for space applications need to use local information to guide their action in uncertain environments where the state of the environment and even the goals may change. They have to be tolerant of unexpected events and robust enough to carry their task to completion. Tactical goals should be modified while maintaining strategic goals. Furthermore, reactive robotic systems need to have a broader view of their environments than sensory-based systems. An architecture and a theory of representation extending the basic cycles of action and perception are described. This scheme allows for dynamic description of the environment and determining purposive and timely action. Applications of this scheme for assembly and repair tasks using a Universal Machine Intelligence RTX robot are being explored, but the ideas are extendable to other domains. The nature of reactivity for sensor-based robotic systems and implementation issues encountered in developing a prototype are discussed.

Evidence for the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet divide for 1.4 million years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hein, Andrew S.; Woodward, John; Marrero, Shasta M.; Dunning, Stuart A.; Steig, Eric J.; Freeman, Stewart P. H. T.; Stuart, Finlay M.; Winter, Kate; Westoby, Matthew J.; Sugden, David E.

2016-02-01

Past fluctuations of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) are of fundamental interest because of the possibility of WAIS collapse in the future and a consequent rise in global sea level. However, the configuration and stability of the ice sheet during past interglacial periods remains uncertain. Here we present geomorphological evidence and multiple cosmogenic nuclide data from the southern Ellsworth Mountains to suggest that the divide of the WAIS has fluctuated only modestly in location and thickness for at least the last 1.4 million years. Fluctuations during glacial-interglacial cycles appear superimposed on a long-term trajectory of ice-surface lowering relative to the mountains. This implies that as a minimum, a regional ice sheet centred on the Ellsworth-Whitmore uplands may have survived Pleistocene warm periods. If so, it constrains the WAIS contribution to global sea level rise during interglacials to about 3.3 m above present.

Energy budgets of animals: behavioral and ecological implications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Porter, W P

1979-01-01

This year's progress has been: (1) to extend the general microclimate model two ways: (a) to incorporate wet ground surfaces (bogs), and (b) to incorporate slope effects. Tests of the model in a Michigan bog and the Galapagos Islands show temperature accuracies to within 4/sup 0/C at worst at any soil or air location, which is about a 2% error in estimation of metabolism. (2) The addition to ectotherm modeling an analysis of: (a) reproduction in heterogeneous and uncertain environments; (b) prediction of distribution limits due to egg incubation requirements; (c) addition of appendage-torso modeling and tests on large ectotherms;more » (d) social systems interactions with environmental and physiological variables; and (3) to continue the endotherm (deer mouse) experimental research and extend the growth and reproduction studies to include the entire reproductive and growth cycle in the deer mouse.« less

The geological and climatological case for a warmer and wetter early Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez, Ramses M.; Craddock, Robert A.

2018-04-01

The climate of early Mars remains a topic of intense debate. Ancient terrains preserve landscapes consistent with stream channels, lake basins and possibly even oceans, and thus the presence of liquid water flowing on the Martian surface 4 billion years ago. However, despite the geological evidence, determining how long climatic conditions supporting liquid water lasted remains uncertain. Climate models have struggled to generate sufficiently warm surface conditions given the faint young Sun—even assuming a denser early atmosphere. A warm climate could have potentially been sustained by supplementing atmospheric CO2 and H2O warming with either secondary greenhouse gases or clouds. Alternatively, the Martian climate could have been predominantly cold and icy, with transient warming episodes triggered by meteoritic impacts, volcanic eruptions, methane bursts or limit cycles. Here, we argue that a warm and semi-arid climate capable of producing rain is most consistent with the geological and climatological evidence.

A proposed Kalman filter algorithm for estimation of unmeasured output variables for an F100 turbofan engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alag, Gurbux S.; Gilyard, Glenn B.

1990-01-01

To develop advanced control systems for optimizing aircraft engine performance, unmeasurable output variables must be estimated. The estimation has to be done in an uncertain environment and be adaptable to varying degrees of modeling errors and other variations in engine behavior over its operational life cycle. This paper represented an approach to estimate unmeasured output variables by explicitly modeling the effects of off-nominal engine behavior as biases on the measurable output variables. A state variable model accommodating off-nominal behavior is developed for the engine, and Kalman filter concepts are used to estimate the required variables. Results are presented from nonlinear engine simulation studies as well as the application of the estimation algorithm on actual flight data. The formulation presented has a wide range of application since it is not restricted or tailored to the particular application described.

Theory of active galactic nuclei

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shields, G. A.

1986-01-01

The involvement of accretion disks around supermassive black holes in the theory of active galactic nuclei (AGN) is discussed. The physics of thin and thick accretion disks is discussed and the partition between thermal and nonthermal energy production in supermassive disks is seen as uncertain. The thermal limit cycle may operate in supermassive disks (Shields, 1985), with accumulation of gas in the disk for periods of 10 to the 4th to 10 to the 7th years, punctuated by briefer outbursts during which the mass is rapidly transferred to smaller radii. An extended X-ray source in AGN is consistent with observations (Tennant and Mushotsky, 1983), and a large wind mass loss rate exceeding the central accretion rate means that only a fraction of the mass entering the disk will reach the central object; the rest being lost to the wind. Controversy in the relationship between the broad lines and the disk is also discussed.

Invasive alien pests threaten the carbon stored in Europe's forests.

PubMed

Seidl, Rupert; Klonner, Günther; Rammer, Werner; Essl, Franz; Moreno, Adam; Neumann, Mathias; Dullinger, Stefan

2018-04-24

Forests mitigate climate change by sequestering large amounts of carbon (C). However, forest C storage is not permanent, and large pulses of tree mortality can thwart climate mitigation efforts. Forest pests are increasingly redistributed around the globe. Yet, the potential future impact of invasive alien pests on the forest C cycle remains uncertain. Here we show that large parts of Europe could be invaded by five detrimental alien pests already under current climate. Climate change increases the potential range of alien pests particularly in Northern and Eastern Europe. We estimate the live C at risk from a potential future invasion as 1027 Tg C (10% of the European total), with a C recovery time of 34 years. We show that the impact of introduced pests could be as severe as the current natural disturbance regime in Europe, calling for increased efforts to halt the introduction and spread of invasive alien species.

Spiders from Mars?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2003-01-01

MGS MOC Release No. MOC2-426, 19 July 2003

No, this is not a picture of a giant, martian spider web. This Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) image shows a plethora of polygonal features on the floor of a northern hemisphere impact crater near 65.6oN, 327.7oW. The picture was acquired during spring, after the seasonal carbon dioxide frost cap had largely migrated through the region. At the time the picture was taken, remnants of seasonal frost remained on the crater rim and on the edges of the troughs that bound each of the polygons. Frost often provides a helpful hint as to where polygons and patterned ground occur. The polygons, if they were on Earth, would indicate the presence of freeze-thaw cycles in ground ice. Although uncertain, the same might be true of Mars. Sunlight illuminates the scene from the lower left.

Investigation of resonances in 20Mg: Implications for astrophysics and nuclear forces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randhawa, Jaspreet; Kanungo, Rituparna; Alcorta, Martin; Burbadge, Christina; Burke, Devin; Christian, Greg; Davids, Barry; Even, Julia; Hackman, Greg; Henderson, Jack; Ishimoto, Shigeru; Kaur, Satbir; Keefe, Matthew; Kruecken, Reiner; Lighthall, Jon; Moukaddam, Mohamad; Padilla-Rodal, Elizabeth; Smith, Jenna; Turko, Joseph; Workman, Orry

2016-09-01

18Ne(2p, γ)20Mg provides a possible pathway for breakout from the hot CNO cycles to the rp-process in type I X-ray bursts. This reaction rate is uncertain due to lack of any experimental information on the resonant states in 20Mg above proton emission threshold. Recent calculations using nuclear forces from chiral perturbation theory predict quite a different level structure for 20Mg with and without inclusion of three nucleon forces. These differences make study of 20Mg states important to constraint both nuclear theory and this reaction rate. We have investigated the excited states in 20Mg through inelastic deuteron scattering. The experiment was performed using the IRIS facility at TRIUMF, Canada. The 20Mg beam with an average intensity of 500 pps and energy of 8.5A MeV was directed at novel thin windowless solid deuteron target. Experiment and initial observations will be discussed.

Registered nurse supply grows faster than projected amid surge in new entrants ages 23-26.

PubMed

Auerbach, David I; Buerhaus, Peter I; Staiger, Douglas O

2011-12-01

The vast preponderance of the nation's registered nurses are women. In the 1980s and 1990 s, a decline in the number of women ages 23-26 who were choosing nursing as a career led to concerns that there would be future nurse shortages unless the trend was reversed. Between 2002 and 2009, however, the number of full-time-equivalent registered nurses ages 23-26 increased by 62 percent. If these young nurses follow the same life-cycle employment patterns as those who preceded them--as they appear to be thus far--then they will be the largest cohort of registered nurses ever observed. Because of this surge in the number of young people entering nursing during the past decade, the nurse workforce is projected to grow faster during the next two decades than previously anticipated. However, it is uncertain whether interest in nursing will continue to grow in the future.

Wave-Particle Dynamics of Wave Breaking in the Self-Excited Dust Acoustic Wave

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Teng, L.-W.; Chang, M.-C.; Tseng, Y.-P.

2009-12-11

The wave-particle microdynamics in the breaking of the self-excited dust acoustic wave growing in a dusty plasma liquid is investigated through directly tracking dust micromotion. It is found that the nonlinear wave growth and steepening stop as the mean oscillating amplitude of dust displacement reaches about 1/k (k is the wave number), where the vertical neighboring dust trajectories start to crossover and the resonant wave heating with uncertain crest trapping onsets. The dephased dust oscillations cause the abrupt dropping and broadening of the wave crest after breaking, accompanied by the transition from the liquid phase with coherent dust oscillation tomore » the gas phase with chaotic dust oscillation. Corkscrew-shaped phase-space distributions measured at the fixed phases of the wave oscillation cycle clearly indicate how dusts move in and constitute the evolving waveform through dust-wave interaction.« less

Wave-Particle Dynamics of Wave Breaking in the Self-Excited Dust Acoustic Wave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teng, Lee-Wen; Chang, Mei-Chu; Tseng, Yu-Ping; I, Lin

2009-12-01

The wave-particle microdynamics in the breaking of the self-excited dust acoustic wave growing in a dusty plasma liquid is investigated through directly tracking dust micromotion. It is found that the nonlinear wave growth and steepening stop as the mean oscillating amplitude of dust displacement reaches about 1/k (k is the wave number), where the vertical neighboring dust trajectories start to crossover and the resonant wave heating with uncertain crest trapping onsets. The dephased dust oscillations cause the abrupt dropping and broadening of the wave crest after breaking, accompanied by the transition from the liquid phase with coherent dust oscillation to the gas phase with chaotic dust oscillation. Corkscrew-shaped phase-space distributions measured at the fixed phases of the wave oscillation cycle clearly indicate how dusts move in and constitute the evolving waveform through dust-wave interaction.

Reconstructing disturbances and their biogeochemical consequences over multiple timescales

USGS Publications Warehouse

McLauchlan, Kendra K.; Higuera, Philip E.; Gavin, Daniel G.; Perakis, Steven S.; Mack, Michelle C.; Alexander, Heather; Battles, John; Biondi, Franco; Buma, Brian; Colombaroli, Daniele; Enders, Sara K.; Engstrom, Daniel R.; Hu, Feng Sheng; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Marshall, John; McGlone, Matt; Morris, Jesse L.; Nave, Lucas E.; Shuman, Bryan; Smithwick, Erica A.H.; Urrego, Dunia H.; Wardle, David A.; Williams, Christopher J.; Williams, Joseph J.

2014-01-01

Ongoing changes in disturbance regimes are predicted to cause acute changes in ecosystem structure and function in the coming decades, but many aspects of these predictions are uncertain. A key challenge is to improve the predictability of postdisturbance biogeochemical trajectories at the ecosystem level. Ecosystem ecologists and paleoecologists have generated complementary data sets about disturbance (type, severity, frequency) and ecosystem response (net primary productivity, nutrient cycling) spanning decadal to millennial timescales. Here, we take the first steps toward a full integration of these data sets by reviewing how disturbances are reconstructed using dendrochronological and sedimentary archives and by summarizing the conceptual frameworks for carbon, nitrogen, and hydrologic responses to disturbances. Key research priorities include further development of paleoecological techniques that reconstruct both disturbances and terrestrial ecosystem dynamics. In addition, mechanistic detail from disturbance experiments, long-term observations, and chronosequences can help increase the understanding of ecosystem resilience.

Synchronization between uncertain nonidentical networks with quantum chaotic behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wenlin; Li, Chong; Song, Heshan

2016-11-01

Synchronization between uncertain nonidentical networks with quantum chaotic behavior is researched. The identification laws of unknown parameters in state equations of network nodes, the adaptive laws of configuration matrix elements and outer coupling strengths are determined based on Lyapunov theorem. The conditions of realizing synchronization between uncertain nonidentical networks are discussed and obtained. Further, Jaynes-Cummings model in physics are taken as the nodes of two networks and simulation results show that the synchronization performance between networks is very stable.

Induction of belief decision trees from data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AbuDahab, Khalil; Xu, Dong-ling; Keane, John

2012-09-01

In this paper, a method for acquiring belief rule-bases by inductive inference from data is described and evaluated. Existing methods extract traditional rules inductively from data, with consequents that are believed to be either 100% true or 100% false. Belief rules can capture uncertain or incomplete knowledge using uncertain belief degrees in consequents. Instead of using singled-value consequents, each belief rule deals with a set of collectively exhaustive and mutually exclusive consequents. The proposed method extracts belief rules from data which contain uncertain or incomplete knowledge.

Simulations of high-spin black-hole binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheel, Mark; Lovelace, Geoffrey

2014-03-01

Black holes can in principle have spins up to the Kerr limit a = 1 , and some (highly uncertain) estimates from X-ray binaries yield a > 0 . 98 . Because binaries with highly-spinning black holes may be detectable by LIGO, it is important to be able to simulate and understand these systems. We present binary black hole simulations with large spins, including a generic, precessing simulation with a spin of a > 0 . 99 on one of the black holes. We discuss some of the difficulties with simulating high-spin black holes and how to overcome them.

A probabilistic assessment of calcium carbonate export and dissolution in the modern ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battaglia, G.; Steinacher, M.; Joos, F.

2015-12-01

The marine cycle of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) is an important element of the carbon cycle and co-governs the distribution of carbon and alkalinity within the ocean. However, CaCO3 fluxes and mechanisms governing CaCO3 dissolution are highly uncertain. We present an observationally-constrained, probabilistic assessment of the global and regional CaCO3 budgets. Parameters governing pelagic CaCO3 export fluxes and dissolution rates are sampled using a Latin-Hypercube scheme to construct a 1000 member ensemble with the Bern3D ocean model. Ensemble results are constrained by comparing simulated and observation-based fields of excess dissolved calcium carbonate (TA*). The minerals calcite and aragonite are modelled explicitly and ocean-sediment fluxes are considered. For local dissolution rates either a strong, a weak or no dependency on CaCO3 saturation is assumed. Median (68 % confidence interval) global CaCO3 export is 0.82 (0.67-0.98) Gt PIC yr-1, within the lower half of previously published estimates (0.4-1.8 Gt PIC yr-1). The spatial pattern of CaCO3 export is broadly consistent with earlier assessments. Export is large in the Southern Ocean, the tropical Indo-Pacific, the northern Pacific and relatively small in the Atlantic. Dissolution within the 200 to 1500 m depth range (0.33; 0.26-0.40 Gt PIC yr-1) is substantially lower than inferred from the TA*-CFC age method (1 ± 0.5 Gt PIC yr-1). The latter estimate is likely biased high as the TA*-CFC method neglects transport. The constrained results are robust across a range of diapycnal mixing coefficients and, thus, ocean circulation strengths. Modelled ocean circulation and transport time scales for the different setups were further evaluated with CFC11 and radiocarbon observations. Parameters and mechanisms governing dissolution are hardly constrained by either the TA* data or the current compilation of CaCO3 flux measurements such that model realisations with and without saturation-dependent dissolution achieve skill. We suggest to apply saturation-independent dissolution rates in Earth System Models to minimise computational costs.

Too Warm, Two Poles: Super Interglacial Teleconnections and Possible Dual Pole Ice Sheet Stability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brigham-Grette, J.; Deconto, R. M.; Roychowdhury, R.; de Wet, G.; Keisling, B. A.; Melles, M.; Minyuk, P.

2017-12-01

Geologic records of the warm Pliocene and Pleistocene super interglacials from both the Arctic and the Antarctic show us that ice sheets are more vulnerable to subtle polar warming than once thought. The continuous 3.6 million-year old sediment record from Lake El'gygytgyn (Lake E), the largest, deepest unglaciated Arctic lake located in central Chukotka, Russia, contains evidence of the warm forested Pliocene and the transition to changing glacial/interglacial climate cycles including at least 9 super interglacials and numerous other strong interglacials. Most of these super interglacials especially MIS 11 and 31, record conditions warmer than MIS 5e and many occur when global cycles are dominated by apparent 41ka forcing during the transition from the warm Pliocene to stronger G/IG variability. Given community consensus on the reduction of the Greenland Ice sheet (GIS) during MIS5e, we suggest that previous interglacials likely forced even larger reductions in the GIS, perhaps consistent with cosmogenic isotope exposure histories. We can best match MIS 11 and 31 from the Antarctic ANDRILL records when diatomaceous ooze deposition in the past recovered from under the modern Ross Ice Shelf suggests collapse of the WAIS and open water conditions. It is possible that a large number of the other Lake E super interglacials correspond to other intervals of WAIS collapse, within the uncertainly of the ANDRILL chronology. The forcing of super interglacials was not necessarily the result of high atmospheric CO2 but the result of preconditioning during periods of extremely low eccentricity and high obliquity. The challenge is now to incorporate oceanographic models (as suggested in Melles et al. 2012) to gauge ice sheet and ocean circulation sensitivity and timescales to preconditioning. Yet confirmation of past warming driving frequent ice sheet collapse in both hemispheres is clear geologically-based evidence that informs our future. Today, anthropogenic CO2 emissions are driving warming and accelerating ice sheet failure. Given that sea level rise projected into the future is global and not reversible, paleoclimate science should help drive social and political action aimed at short-term fixes and long-term "managed retreat" of human infrastructure from our coastlines.

Carbon Transformations and Source - Sink Dynamics along a River, Marsh, Estuary, Ocean Continuum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, I. C.; Crosswell, J.; Czapla, K.; Van Dam, B.

2017-12-01

Estuaries, the transition zone between land and the coastal ocean, are highly dynamic systems in which carbon sourced from watersheds, marshes, atmosphere, and ocean may be transformed, sequestered, or exported. The net fate of carbon in estuaries, governed by the interactions of biotic and physical drivers varying on spatial and temporal scales, is currently uncertain because of limited observational data. In this study, conducted in a temperate, microtidal, and shallow North Carolina USA estuary, carbon exchanges via river, tributary, and fringing salt marsh, air-water fluxes, sediment C accumulation, and metabolism were monitored over two-years, with sharply different amounts of rainfall. Air-water CO2 fluxes and metabolic variables were simultaneously measured in channel and shoal by conducting high-resolution surveys at dawn, dusk and the following dawn. Marsh CO2 exchanges, sediment C inputs, and lateral exports of DIC and DOC were also measured. Carbon flows between estuary regions and export to the coastal ocean were calculated by quantifying residual transport of DIC and TOC down-estuary as flows were modified by sources, sinks and internal transformations. Variation in metabolic rates, CO2, TOC and DIC exchanges were large when determined for short time and limited spatial scales. However, when scaled to annual and whole estuarine scales, variation tended to decrease because of counteracting metabolic rates and fluxes between channel and shoal or between seasons. Although overall salt marshes accumulated OC, they were a negligible source of DIC and DOC to the estuary, and net inputs of C to the marsh were mainly derived from sediment OC. These results, as observed in other observational studies of estuaries, show that riverine input, light, temperature and metabolism are major controls on carbon cycling. Comparison of our results with other types of estuaries varying in depth, latitude, and nutrification demonstrates large discrepancies underscoring the limitations of current sampling designs, models and datasets in representing system-scale diversity; thus, a more practical approach may be to choose a small number of representative coastal systems, coordinate research efforts to quantify the relevant fluxes and constrain a range of environmental conditions that influence carbon cycling.

Plasma convection in Saturn's magnetosphere: A diagnosis using Cassini observations of the magnetic field spiral

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Edward; Dougherty, Michele K.

The global distribution of plasma and its flows inside Saturn's magnetosphere is complex. The large satellites in the inner magnetosphere are a persistent source of plasma that must make its way into the outer magnetosphere and exit through the magnetotail. The mass loaded into the magnetic field stretches the field lines outward resulting in the formation of the equatorial current sheet. The outward radial flow causes the closed stretched fields to spiral out of magnetic meridian planes. The angle associated with the spiralling is given by the ratio of the azimuthal field component, B , to the radial component Br : tan = B / Br . The magnetic spiral is directly related to the corresponding components of plasma velocity, v and v r, provided the conductivity of the ionosphere, , is high enough to enforce co-rotation of the field lines. If, as has been inferred, the conductivity is low, the field and plasma do not co-rotate and the conductivity also enters the expression for . Conditions are more uncertain further out in the magnetosphere where convective motions associated with magnetic reconnection between planetary and interplanetary fields and the motion of the shocked solar wind become dominant. The prevailing model is a superposition of two modes of plasma circulation inside the magnetosphere and magnetotail, the Dungey and Vasyliunas cycles, that depend on radial distance and local time with an x-line in the midnight sector that separates the two cycles. The measured spiral angle will be affected by this complexity and holds the promise of distinguishing the relative influences of v ,v r and . The two field components that define the spiral angle are also involved in the transfer of angular momentum from the ionosphere to the magnetospheric plasma and the outward mass flux. The spiral should also contain evidence, especially at high latitudes, of the return of the current to the ionosphere from the current sheet. Our major objective, therefore, is to characterize as a function of radius, latitude and local time using the global coverage provided by Cassini and apply the findings to the topics listed above.

Net drainage effects on CO2 fluxes of a permafrost ecosystem through eddy-covariance measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kittler, Fanny; Burjack, Ina; Zimov, Nikita; Zimov, Sergey; Heimann, Martin; Göckede, Mathias

2015-04-01

Permafrost landscapes in the Northern high latitudes with their massive organic carbon stocks are critically important for the global carbon cycle, yet feedback processes with the atmosphere under future climate conditions are uncertain. To improve the understanding of mechanisms and drivers dominating permafrost carbon cycling, we established a continuous observation program in moist tussock tundra ecosystem near Cherskiy in North-eastern Siberia (68.75°N, 161.33°E). The experiment has been designed to monitor carbon cycle fluxes at different scales with different approaches, including e.g. the eddy-covariance technique, and their environmental drivers. Recent observations started mid July 2013 and are still ongoing, while 'historic' measurements are available for the period 2002-2005. Since 2004 part of the observation area has been disturbed by a drainage ditch ring, altering the soil water conditions in the surrounding area in a way that is expected for degrading ice-rich permafrost under a warming climate. With parallel observations over the disturbed (drained) area and a reference area nearby, respectively, we aim to evaluate the disturbance effect on the carbon cycle budgets and the dominating biogeochemical mechanisms. Here, findings based on over 1.5 years of continuous eddy-covariance CO2 flux measurements (July 2013 - March 2015) for both observation areas are presented. Results show systematic shifts in the tundra ecosystem as a result of 10 years of disturbance in the drained area, with significant effects on biotic and abiotic site conditions as well as on the carbon cycle dynamics. Comparing the net budget fluxes between both observations areas indicates a reduction of the net sink strength for CO2 of the drained ecosystem during the summer season in comparison to natural conditions, mostly caused by reduced CO2 uptake with low water levels in late summer. Regarding the long-term CO2 uptake dynamics of the disturbance regime (2005 vs. 2013/14) the drained area has strongly rebounded from a strong reduction in NEE sink strength immediately following the disturbance. The observed significant increase in summertime uptake, has been caused mostly by an overall increase in the gross primary production. Based on the analysis of environmental drivers derived by in situ measurements and remote sensing products, this increase in summertime uptake is not linked to corresponding increases in air temperature, while there are some links to a greening of the ecosystem as observed in MODIS NDVI data. Finally, we present results on the role of the flux patterns during the non-growing season for the annual carbon budget, with a particular focus on the contributions of the shoulder seasons.

Chronic kidney diseases of uncertain etiology (CKDue) in Sri Lanka: geographic distribution and environmental implications.

PubMed

Chandrajith, Rohana; Nanayakkara, Shanika; Itai, Kozuyoshi; Aturaliya, T N C; Dissanayake, C B; Abeysekera, Thilak; Harada, Kouji; Watanabe, Takao; Koizumi, Akio

2011-06-01

The increase in the number of chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients from the north central region of Sri Lanka has become a environmental health issue of national concern. Unlike in other countries where long-standing diabetes and hypertension are the leading causes of renal diseases, the majority of CKD patients from this part of Sri Lanka do not show any identifiable cause. As the disease is restricted to a remarkably specific geographical terrain, particularly in the north central dry zone of the country, multidisciplinary in-depth research studies are required to identify possible etiologies and risk factors. During this study, population screening in the prevalent region and outside the region, analysis of geoenvironmental and biochemical samples were carried out. Population screening that was carried out using a multistage sampling technique indicated that the point prevalence of CKD with uncertain etiology is about 2-3% among those above 18 years of age. Drinking water collected from high-prevalent and non-endemic regions was analyzed for their trace and ultratrace element contents, including the nephrotoxic heavy metals Cd and U using ICP-MS. The results indicate that the affected regions contain moderate to high levels of fluoride. The Cd contents in drinking water, rice from affected regions and urine from symptomatic and non-symptomatic patients were much lower indicating that Cd is not a contributing factor for CKD with uncertain etiology in Sri Lanka. Although no single geochemical parameter could be clearly and directly related to the CKD etiology on the basis of the elements determined during this study, it is very likely that the unique hydrogeochemistry of the drinking water is closely associated with the incidence of the disease. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Randomized comparison of Zotarolimus-Eluting Endeavor Sprint versus bare-metal stent implantation in uncertain drug-eluting stent candidates: rationale, design, and characterization of the patient population for the Zotarolimus-eluting Endeavor Sprint stent in uncertain DES candidates study.

PubMed

Valgimigli, Marco; Patialiakas, Athanasios; Thury, Attila; Colangelo, Salvatore; Campo, Gianluca; Tebaldi, Matteo; Ungi, Imre; Tondi, Stefano; Roffi, Marco; Menozzi, Alberto; de Cesare, Nicoletta; Garbo, Roberto; Meliga, Emanuele; Testa, Luca; Gabriel, Henrique M; Airoldi, Flavio; Ferlini, Marco; Liistro, Francesco; Dellavalle, Antonio; Vranckx, Pascal; Briguori, Carlo

2013-11-01

The use of drug-eluting stent (DES) instead of bare-metal stent (BMS) in patients at high stent thrombosis or bleeding risk as well as in those at low restenosis risk (ie, uncertain DES candidates) remains a matter of debate. Zotarolimus-Eluting Endeavor Sprint stent (E-ZES) (Santa Rosa, CA) is a hydrophilic polymer-based second-generation device with unique drug fast-release profile, which may allow for a shorter dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) duration without safety concerns. The primary objective is to assess whether E-ZES implantation followed by a shorter than currently recommended course of DAPT will decrease the incidence of 12-month major adverse cardiovascular events as compared with BMS in undefined DES recipients. Actual duration of DAPT regimen will be dictated by patients' characteristics and not by stent type and, as such, can be as short as 30 days after intervention in both stent groups. The ZEUS study is an open-label randomized clinical trial conducted at 20 clinical sites in Italy, Switzerland, Portugal, and Hungary. With 1,600 individuals, this study will have 85% power to detect a 33% difference in the primary end point consisting of the composite of death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or target vessel revascularization. The ZEUS trial aims to assess whether the use of E-ZES, followed by a DAPT duration regimen based on patients' characteristics and not by stent type, is superior to conventional BMS implantation in undefined DES recipients who qualify for the presence of high thrombosis, bleeding, or low restenosis risk criteria. © 2013.

Uncertainty Analysis of A Flood Risk Mapping Procedure Applied In Urban Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krause, J.; Uhrich, S.; Bormann, H.; Diekkrüger, B.

In the framework of IRMA-Sponge program the presented study was part of the joint research project FRHYMAP (flood risk and hydrological mapping). A simple con- ceptual flooding model (FLOODMAP) has been developed to simulate flooded areas besides rivers within cities. FLOODMAP requires a minimum of input data (digital el- evation model (DEM), river line, water level plain) and parameters and calculates the flood extent as well as the spatial distribution of flood depths. of course the simulated model results are affected by errors and uncertainties. Possible sources of uncertain- ties are the model structure, model parameters and input data. Thus after the model validation (comparison of simulated water to observed extent, taken from airborne pictures) the uncertainty of the essential input data set (digital elevation model) was analysed. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to assess the effect of uncertain- ties concerning the statistics of DEM quality and to derive flooding probabilities from the set of simulations. The questions concerning a minimum resolution of a DEM re- quired for flood simulation and concerning the best aggregation procedure of a given DEM was answered by comparing the results obtained using all available standard GIS aggregation procedures. Seven different aggregation procedures were applied to high resolution DEMs (1-2m) in three cities (Bonn, Cologne, Luxembourg). Basing on this analysis the effect of 'uncertain' DEM data was estimated and compared with other sources of uncertainties. Especially socio-economic information and monetary transfer functions required for a damage risk analysis show a high uncertainty. There- fore this study helps to analyse the weak points of the flood risk and damage risk assessment procedure.

The impact of geoengineering on vegetation in experiment G1 of the GeoMIP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glienke, Susanne; Irvine, Peter J.; Lawrence, Mark G.

2015-10-01

Solar Radiation Management (SRM) has been proposed as a mean to partly counteract global warming. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) has simulated the climate consequences of a number of SRM techniques. Thus far, the effects on vegetation have not yet been thoroughly analyzed. Here the vegetation response to the idealized GeoMIP G1 experiment from eight fully coupled Earth system models (ESMs) is analyzed, in which a reduction of the solar constant counterbalances the radiative effects of quadrupled atmospheric CO2 concentrations (abrupt4 × CO2). For most models and regions, changes in net primary productivity (NPP) are dominated by the increase in CO2, via the CO2 fertilization effect. As SRM will reduce temperatures relative to abrupt4 × CO2, in high latitudes this will offset increases in NPP. In low latitudes, this cooling relative to the abrupt4 × CO2 simulation decreases plant respiration while having little effect on gross primary productivity, thus increasing NPP. In Central America and the Mediterranean, generally dry regions which are expected to experience increased water stress with global warming, NPP is highest in the G1 experiment for all models due to the easing of water limitations from increased water use efficiency at high-CO2 concentrations and the reduced evaporative demand in a geoengineered climate. The largest differences in the vegetation response are between models with and without a nitrogen cycle, with a much smaller CO2 fertilization effect for the former. These results suggest that until key vegetation processes are integrated into ESM predictions, the vegetation response to SRM will remain highly uncertain.

Uncertainty analysis of terrestrial net primary productivity and net biome productivity in China during 1901-2005

DOE PAGES

Shao, Junjiong; Zhou, Xuhui; Luo, Yiqi; ...

2016-04-28

Here, despite the importance of net primary productivity (NPP) and net biome productivity (NBP), estimates of NPP and NBP for China are highly uncertain. To investigate the main sources of uncertainty, we synthesized model estimates of NPP and NBP for China from published literature and the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). The literature-based results showed that total NPP and NBP in China were 3.35 ± 1.25 and 0.14 ± 0.094 Pg C yr –1, respectively. Classification and regression tree analysis based on literature data showed that model type was the primary source of the uncertainty, explaining 36%more » and 64% of the variance in NPP and NBP, respectively. Spatiotemporal scales, land cover conditions, inclusion of the N cycle, and effects of N addition also contributed to the overall uncertainty. Results based on the MsTMIP data suggested that model structures were overwhelmingly important (>90%) for the overall uncertainty compared to simulations with different combinations of time-varying global change factors. The interannual pattern of NPP was similar among diverse studies and increased by 0.012 Pg C yr –1 during 1981–2000. In addition, high uncertainty in China's NPP occurred in areas with high productivity, whereas NBP showed the opposite pattern. Our results suggest that to significantly reduce uncertainty in estimated NPP and NBP, model structures should be substantially tested on the basis of empirical results. To this end, coordinated distributed experiments with multiple global change factors might be a practical approach that can validate specific structures of different models.« less

Uncertainty analysis of terrestrial net primary productivity and net biome productivity in China during 1901-2005

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shao, Junjiong; Zhou, Xuhui; Luo, Yiqi

Here, despite the importance of net primary productivity (NPP) and net biome productivity (NBP), estimates of NPP and NBP for China are highly uncertain. To investigate the main sources of uncertainty, we synthesized model estimates of NPP and NBP for China from published literature and the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). The literature-based results showed that total NPP and NBP in China were 3.35 ± 1.25 and 0.14 ± 0.094 Pg C yr –1, respectively. Classification and regression tree analysis based on literature data showed that model type was the primary source of the uncertainty, explaining 36%more » and 64% of the variance in NPP and NBP, respectively. Spatiotemporal scales, land cover conditions, inclusion of the N cycle, and effects of N addition also contributed to the overall uncertainty. Results based on the MsTMIP data suggested that model structures were overwhelmingly important (>90%) for the overall uncertainty compared to simulations with different combinations of time-varying global change factors. The interannual pattern of NPP was similar among diverse studies and increased by 0.012 Pg C yr –1 during 1981–2000. In addition, high uncertainty in China's NPP occurred in areas with high productivity, whereas NBP showed the opposite pattern. Our results suggest that to significantly reduce uncertainty in estimated NPP and NBP, model structures should be substantially tested on the basis of empirical results. To this end, coordinated distributed experiments with multiple global change factors might be a practical approach that can validate specific structures of different models.« less

Near-Infrared Spectroscopic Measurement of the Effect of Leg Dominance on Muscle Oxygen Saturation During Cycling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ellerby, Gwenn E. C.; Lee, Stuart M. C.; Paunescu, Lelia Adelina; Pereira, Chelsea; Smith, Charles P.; Soller, Babs R.

2011-01-01

The effect of leg dominance on the symmetry of the biomechanics during cycling remains uncertain -- asymmetries have been observed in kinematics and kinetics, while symmetries were found in muscle activation. No studies have yet investigated the symmetry of muscle metabolism during cycling. Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) provides a non-invasive method to investigate the metabolic responses of specific muscles during cycling. PURPOSE: To determine whether there was an effect of leg dominance on thigh muscle oxygen saturation (SmO2) during incrementally loaded submaximal cycling using NIRS. METHODS: Eight right leg dominant, untrained subjects (5 men, 3 women; 31+/-2 yrs; 168.6+/-1.0 cm; 67.2+/-1.8 kg, mean +/- SE) volunteered to participate. Spectra were collected bilaterally from the vastus lateralis (VL) during supine rest and cycling. SmO2 was calculated using previously published methods. Subjects pedaled at 65 rpm while resistance to pedaling was increased in 0.5 kp increments from 0.5 kp every 3 min until the subject reached 80% of age-predicted maximal heart rate. SmO2 was averaged over 3 min for each completed stage. A two-way ANOVA was performed to test for leg differences. A priori contrasts were used to compare work levels to rest. RESULTS: VL SmO2 was not different between the dominant and non-dominant legs at rest and during exercise (p=0.57). How SmO2 changed with workload was also not different between legs (p=0.32). SmO2 at 0.5 kp (60.3+/-4.0, p=0.12) and 1.0 kp (59.5+/-4.0, p=0.10) was not different from rest (69.1+/-4.0). SmO2 at 1.5 kp (55.4 4.0, p=0.02), 2.0 kp (55.7+/-5.0, p=0.04), and 2.5 kp (43.4+/-7.9, p=0.01) was significantly lower than rest. CONCLUSION: VL SmO2 during cycling is not different between dominant and non-dominant legs and decreases with moderate workload in untrained cyclists. Assuming blood flow is directed equally to both legs, similar levels of oxygen extraction (as indicated by SmO2) suggests the metabolic load of cycling is not different between legs. This is in agreement with a recent study demonstrating symmetrical increase of muscle activation of the VL during cycling. Leg dominance did not influence VL SmO2 during submaximal cycling, but may have an effect at higher loads or during other forms of exercise, such as walking and running.

Robust control for uncertain structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglas, Joel; Athans, Michael

1991-01-01

Viewgraphs on robust control for uncertain structures are presented. Topics covered include: robust linear quadratic regulator (RLQR) formulas; mismatched LQR design; RLQR design; interpretations of RLQR design; disturbance rejection; and performance comparisons: RLQR vs. mismatched LQR.

Cutting Force Predication Based on Integration of Symmetric Fuzzy Number and Finite Element Method

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhanli; Hu, Yanjuan; Wang, Yao; Dong, Chao; Pang, Zaixiang

2014-01-01

In the process of turning, pointing at the uncertain phenomenon of cutting which is caused by the disturbance of random factors, for determining the uncertain scope of cutting force, the integrated symmetric fuzzy number and the finite element method (FEM) are used in the prediction of cutting force. The method used symmetric fuzzy number to establish fuzzy function between cutting force and three factors and obtained the uncertain interval of cutting force by linear programming. At the same time, the change curve of cutting force with time was directly simulated by using thermal-mechanical coupling FEM; also the nonuniform stress field and temperature distribution of workpiece, tool, and chip under the action of thermal-mechanical coupling were simulated. The experimental result shows that the method is effective for the uncertain prediction of cutting force. PMID:24790556

Orbit control of a stratospheric satellite with parameter uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Ming; Huo, Wei

2016-12-01

When a stratospheric satellite travels by prevailing winds in the stratosphere, its cross-track displacement needs to be controlled to keep a constant latitude orbital flight. To design the orbit control system, a 6 degree-of-freedom (DOF) model of the satellite is established based on the second Lagrangian formulation, it is proven that the input/output feedback linearization theory cannot be directly implemented for the orbit control with this model, thus three subsystem models are deduced from the 6-DOF model to develop a sequential nonlinear control strategy. The control strategy includes an adaptive controller for the balloon-tether subsystem with uncertain balloon parameters, a PD controller based on feedback linearization for the tether-sail subsystem, and a sliding mode controller for the sail-rudder subsystem with uncertain sail parameters. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed control strategy is robust to uncertainties and satisfies high precision requirements for the orbit flight of the satellite.

Adaptive optimization as a design and management methodology for coal-mining enterprise in uncertain and volatile market environment - the conceptual framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikhalchenko, V. V.; Rubanik, Yu T.

2016-10-01

The work is devoted to the problem of cost-effective adaptation of coal mines to the volatile and uncertain market conditions. Conceptually it can be achieved through alignment of the dynamic characteristics of the coal mining system and power spectrum of market demand for coal product. In practical terms, this ensures the viability and competitiveness of coal mines. Transformation of dynamic characteristics is to be done by changing the structure of production system as well as corporate, logistics and management processes. The proposed methods and algorithms of control are aimed at the development of the theoretical foundations of adaptive optimization as basic methodology for coal mine enterprise management in conditions of high variability and uncertainty of economic and natural environment. Implementation of the proposed methodology requires a revision of the basic principles of open coal mining enterprises design.

A Computational Framework to Control Verification and Robustness Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

2010-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for evaluating the robustness of a controller based on its ability to satisfy the design requirements. The framework proposed is generic since it allows for high-fidelity models, arbitrary control structures and arbitrary functional dependencies between the requirements and the uncertain parameters. The cornerstone of this contribution is the ability to bound the region of the uncertain parameter space where the degradation in closed-loop performance remains acceptable. The size of this bounding set, whose geometry can be prescribed according to deterministic or probabilistic uncertainty models, is a measure of robustness. The robustness metrics proposed herein are the parametric safety margin, the reliability index, the failure probability and upper bounds to this probability. The performance observed at the control verification setting, where the assumptions and approximations used for control design may no longer hold, will fully determine the proposed control assessment.

Optimal experimental designs for fMRI when the model matrix is uncertain.

PubMed

Kao, Ming-Hung; Zhou, Lin

2017-07-15

This study concerns optimal designs for functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) experiments when the model matrix of the statistical model depends on both the selected stimulus sequence (fMRI design), and the subject's uncertain feedback (e.g. answer) to each mental stimulus (e.g. question) presented to her/him. While practically important, this design issue is challenging. This mainly is because that the information matrix cannot be fully determined at the design stage, making it difficult to evaluate the quality of the selected designs. To tackle this challenging issue, we propose an easy-to-use optimality criterion for evaluating the quality of designs, and an efficient approach for obtaining designs optimizing this criterion. Compared with a previously proposed method, our approach requires a much less computing time to achieve designs with high statistical efficiencies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rendezvous with connectivity preservation for multi-robot systems with an unknown leader

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Yi

2018-02-01

This paper studies the leader-following rendezvous problem with connectivity preservation for multi-agent systems composed of uncertain multi-robot systems subject to external disturbances and an unknown leader, both of which are generated by a so-called exosystem with parametric uncertainty. By combining internal model design, potential function technique and adaptive control, two distributed control strategies are proposed to maintain the connectivity of the communication network, to achieve the asymptotic tracking of all the followers to the output of the unknown leader system, as well as to reject unknown external disturbances. It is also worth to mention that the uncertain parameters in the multi-robot systems and exosystem are further allowed to belong to unknown and unbounded sets when applying the second fully distributed control law containing a dynamic gain inspired by high-gain adaptive control or self-tuning regulator.

Carbon Dioxide Physiological Forcing Dominates Projected Eastern Amazonian Drying

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, T. B.; Forster, P. M.; Andrews, T.; Boucher, O.; Faluvegi, G.; Fläschner, D.; Kasoar, M.; Kirkevâg, A.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Myhre, G.; Olivié, D.; Samset, B. H.; Shawki, D.; Shindell, D.; Takemura, T.; Voulgarakis, A.

2018-03-01

Future projections of east Amazonian precipitation indicate drying, but they are uncertain and poorly understood. In this study we analyze the Amazonian precipitation response to individual atmospheric forcings using a number of global climate models. Black carbon is found to drive reduced precipitation over the Amazon due to temperature-driven circulation changes, but the magnitude is uncertain. CO2 drives reductions in precipitation concentrated in the east, mainly due to a robustly negative, but highly variable in magnitude, fast response. We find that the physiological effect of CO2 on plant stomata is the dominant driver of the fast response due to reduced latent heating and also contributes to the large model spread. Using a simple model, we show that CO2 physiological effects dominate future multimodel mean precipitation projections over the Amazon. However, in individual models temperature-driven changes can be large, but due to little agreement, they largely cancel out in the model mean.

Lightning NOx and Impacts on Air Quality

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murray, Lee T.

2016-01-01

Lightning generates relatively large but uncertain quantities of nitrogen oxides, critical precursors for ozone and hydroxyl radical (OH), the primary tropospheric oxidants. Lightning nitrogen oxide strongly influences background ozone and OH due to high ozone production efficiencies in the free troposphere, effecting small but non-negligible contributions to surface pollutant concentrations. Lightning globally contributes 3-4 ppbv of simulated annual-mean policy-relevant background (PRB) surface ozone, comprised of local, regional, and hemispheric components, and up to 18 ppbv during individual events. Feedbacks via methane may counter some of these effects on decadal time scales. Lightning contributes approximately 1 percent to annual-mean surface particulate matter, as a direct precursor and by promoting faster oxidation of other precursors. Lightning also ignites wildfires and contributes to nitrogen deposition. Urban pollution influences lightning itself, with implications for regional lightning-nitrogen oxide production and feedbacks on downwind surface pollution. How lightning emissions will change in a warming world remains uncertain.

Physicians’ Perspectives on the Uncertainties and Implications of Chromosomal Microarray Testing of Children and Families

PubMed Central

Reiff, Marian; Ross, Kathryn; Mulchandani, Surabhi; Propert, Kathleen Joy; Pyeritz, Reed E.; Spinner, Nancy B.; Bernhardt, Barbara A.

2012-01-01

Chromosomal microarray analysis (CMA) has improved the diagnostic rate of genomic disorders in pediatric populations, but can produce uncertain and unexpected findings. This paper explores clinicians’ perspectives and identifies challenges in effectively interpreting results and communicating with families about CMA. Responses to an online survey were obtained from 40 clinicians who had ordered CMA. Content included practice characteristics and perceptions, and queries about a hypothetical case involving uncertain and incidental findings. Data were analyzed using non-parametric statistical tests. Clinicians’ comfort levels differed significantly for explaining uncertain, abnormal, and normal CMA results, with lowest levels for uncertain results. Despite clinical guidelines recommending informed consent, many clinicians did not consider it pertinent to discuss the potential for CMA to reveal information concerning biological parentage or predisposition to late-onset disease, in a hypothetical case. Many non-genetics professionals ordering CMA did not feel equipped to interpret the results for patients, and articulated needs for education and access to genetics professionals. This exploratory study highlights key challenges in the practice of genomic medicine, and identifies needs for education, disseminated practice guidelines, and access to genetics professionals, especially when dealing with uncertain or unexpected findings. PMID:22989118

Carbonation of subduction-zone serpentinite (high-pressure ophicarbonate; Ligurian Western Alps) and implications for the deep carbon cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scambelluri, Marco; Bebout, Gray E.; Belmonte, Donato; Gilio, Mattia; Campomenosi, Nicola; Collins, Nathan; Crispini, Laura

2016-05-01

Much of the long-term carbon cycle in solid earth occurs in subduction zones, where processes of devolatilization, partial melting of carbonated rocks, and dissolution of carbonate minerals lead to the return of CO2 to the atmosphere via volcanic degassing. Release of COH fluids from hydrous and carbonate minerals influences C recycling and magmatism at subduction zones. Contradictory interpretations exist regarding the retention/storage of C in subducting plates and in the forearc to subarc mantle. Several lines of evidence indicate mobility of C, of uncertain magnitude, in forearcs. A poorly constrained fraction of the 40-115 Mt/yr of C initially subducted is released into fluids (by decarbonation and/or carbonate dissolution) and 18-43 Mt/yr is returned at arc volcanoes. Current estimates suggest the amount of C released into subduction fluids is greater than that degassed at arc volcanoes: the imbalance could reflect C subduction into the deeper mantle, beyond subarc regions, or storage of C in forearc/subarc reservoirs. We examine the fate of C in plate-interface ultramafic rocks, and by analogy serpentinized mantle wedge, via study of fluid-rock evolution of marble and variably carbonated serpentinite in the Ligurian Alps. Based on petrography, major and trace element concentrations, and carbonate C and O isotope compositions, we demonstrate that serpentinite dehydration at 2-2.5 GPa, 550 °C released aqueous fluids triggering breakdown of dolomite in nearby marbles, thus releasing C into fluids. Carbonate + olivine veins document flow of COH fluids and that the interaction of these COH fluids with serpentinite led to the formation of high-P carbonated ultramafic-rock domains (high-P ophicarbonates). We estimate that this could result in the retention of ∼0.5-2.0 Mt C/yr in such rocks along subduction interfaces. As another means of C storage, 1 to 3 km-thick layers of serpentinized forearc mantle wedge containing 50 modal % dolomite could sequester 1.62 to 4.85 Mt C/yr. We stress that lithologically complex interfaces could contain sites of both C release and C addition, further confounding estimates of net C loss at forearc and subarc depths. Sites of C retention, also including carbonate veins and graphite as reduced carbonate, could influence the transfer of slab C to at least the depths beneath volcanic fronts.

Dread of uncertain pain: An event-related potential study

PubMed Central

Huang, Yujing; Shang, Qian; Dai, Shenyi; Ma, Qingguo

2017-01-01

Humans experience more stress about uncertain situations than certain situations. However, the neural mechanism underlying the uncertainty of a negative stimulus has not been determined. In the present study, event-related potential was recorded to examine neural responses during the dread of unpredictable pain. We used a cueing paradigm in which predictable cues were always followed by electric shocks, unpredictable cues by electric shocks at a 50/50 ratio and safe cues by no electric shock. Visual analogue scales following electric shocks were presented to quantify subjective anxiety levels. The behavioral results showed that unpredictable cues evoked high-level anxiety compared with predictable cues in both painful and unpainful stimulation conditions. More importantly, the ERPs results revealed that unpredictable cues elicited a larger P200 at parietal sites than predictable cues. In addition, unpredictable cues evoked larger P200 compared with safe cues at frontal electrodes and compared with predictable cues at parietal electrodes. In addition, larger P3b and LPP were observed during perception of safe cues compared with predictable cues at frontal and central electrodes. The similar P3b effect was also revealed in the left sites. The present study underlined that the uncertain dread of pain was associated with threat appraisal process in pain system. These findings on early event-related potentials were significant for a neural marker and development of therapeutic interventions. PMID:28832607

Toward reassessing data-deficient species.

PubMed

Bland, Lucie M; Bielby, Jon; Kearney, Stephen; Orme, C David L; Watson, James E M; Collen, Ben

2017-06-01

One in 6 species (13,465 species) on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is classified as data deficient due to lack of information on their taxonomy, population status, or impact of threats. Despite the chance that many are at high risk of extinction, data-deficient species are typically excluded from global and local conservation priorities, as well as funding schemes. The number of data-deficient species will greatly increase as the IUCN Red List becomes more inclusive of poorly known and speciose groups. A strategic approach is urgently needed to enhance the conservation value of data-deficient assessments. To develop this, we reviewed 2879 data-deficient assessments in 6 animal groups and identified 8 main justifications for assigning data-deficient status (type series, few records, old records, uncertain provenance, uncertain population status or distribution, uncertain threats, taxonomic uncertainty, and new species). Assigning a consistent set of justification tags (i.e., consistent assignment to assessment justifications) to species classified as data deficient is a simple way to achieve more strategic assessments. Such tags would clarify the causes of data deficiency; facilitate the prediction of extinction risk; facilitate comparisons of data deficiency among taxonomic groups; and help prioritize species for reassessment. With renewed efforts, it could be straightforward to prevent thousands of data-deficient species slipping unnoticed toward extinction. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Patent Foramen Ovale in Patients with Cerebral Infarction: A Transesophageal Echocradigraphy Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petty, George W.; Khandheria, Bijoy K.; Chu, Chu-Pin; Sicks, JoRean D.; Whisnant, Jack P.

1997-01-01

Patent foramen ovale was detected in 37 patients (32%). Mean age was similar in those with (60 years) and those without (64 years) PFO. Patent foramen ovale was more frequent among men (39%) than women (20%, P=.03). Patients with PFO had a lower frequency of atrial fibrillation, diabetes me!litus, hypertension, and peripheral vascular disease compared with those without PFO. There was no difference in frequency of the following characteristics in patients with PFO compared with those without PFO: pulmonary embolus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pulmonary hypertension, peripheral embolism, prior cerebral infarction, nosocomial cerebral infarction, Valsalva maneuver at the time of cerebral infarction, recent surgery, or hemorrhagic transformation of cerebral infarction. Patent foramen ovale was found in 22 (40%) of 55 patients with infarcts of uncertain cause and in 15 (25%) of 61 with infarcts of known cause (cardioembolic, 21%; large vessel atherostenosis, 25%; lacune, 40%) (P=.08). When the analysis was restricted to patients who underwent Valsalva maneuver, PFO with right to left or bidirectional shunt was found in 19 (50%) of 38 patients with infarcts of uncertain cause and in 6 (20%) of 30 with infarcts of known cause (P=.Ol). Conclusion: Although PFO was over-represented in patients with infarcts of uncertain cause in our and other studies, it has a high frequency among patients with cerebral infarction of all types. The relation between PFO and stroke requires further study.

For Illegal College Students, an Uncertain Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Horwedel, Dina M.

2006-01-01

With almost two million undocumented children in school and an estimated 65,000 graduating from high school every year, higher education is becoming the new frontier in the immigration debate. In 1982, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the children of illegal immigrants have a right to a free K-12 education. However, the court never extended that…

Truth in Spending: The Cost of Not Educating Our Kids.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeSchryver, David A.

Statistical information is given on the inadequacy of U.S. schools, including the cost of remedial classes in colleges and businesses. The relationship between money spent, including on such items as salaries and class size, and high achievement scores is shown to be uncertain. Low performance often leads to requests for more money, rather than a…

Ecohydrological consequences of drought- and infestation-triggered tree die-off: Insights and hypotheses

Treesearch

Henry D. Adams; Charles H. Luce; David D. Breshears; Craig D. Allen; Markus Weiler; V. Cody Hale; Alistair M. S. Smith; Travis E. Huxman

2012-01-01

Widespread, rapid, drought-, and infestation-triggered tree mortality is emerging as a phenomenon affecting forests globally and may be linked to increasing temperatures and drought frequency and severity. The ecohydrological consequences of forest die-off have been little studied and remain highly uncertain. To explore this knowledge gap, we apply the extensive...

Assessing the Impact of the Funding Environment on Researchers' Risk Aversion: The Use of Citation Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zoller, Frank A.; Zimmerling, Eric; Boutellier, Roman

2014-01-01

The funding environment has a profound impact on researchers' behavior. In particular, it influences their freedom and readiness to conduct research ventures with highly uncertain outcomes. In this conceptual paper, we propose a concise new methodology to evaluate researchers' risk aversion based on citation statistics. The derived…

The role of place-based social learning [Chapter 7

Treesearch

Daniel R. Williams

2017-01-01

Hummel's observations on the limits of science to inform practice provides a useful starting point for a book chapter devoted to examining post-normal environmental policy where the "facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high, and decisions urgent" (Funtowicz and Ravetz 1993, 739, 744). Central to the argument here is that the integration of...

Social Communication Disorder outside Autism? A Diagnostic Classification Approach to Delineating Pragmatic Language Impairment, High Functioning Autism and Specific Language Impairment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gibson, Jenny; Adams, Catherine; Lockton, Elaine; Green, Jonathan

2013-01-01

Background: Developmental disorders of language and communication present considerable diagnostic challenges due to overlapping of symptomatology and uncertain aetiology. We aimed to further elucidate the behavioural and linguistic profile associated with impairments of social communication occurring outside of an autism diagnosis. Methods: Six to…

FORMATION OF 8-OXO-2'-DEOXYGUANOSINE, AN OXIDATIVE ADDUCT IN THE LUNG DNA OF RATS FOLLOWING SUBCHRONIC INHALATION OF CARBON BLACK

EPA Science Inventory

Chronic inhalation of carbon black (CB) can produce carcinomas in rat lungs. The mechanisms underlying this response are uncertain. However, it has been postulated that chronic inflammation and cell proliferation may play a role in the development of tumors after high dose, lo...

Mississippi Blacks and the Voting Rights Act of 1965

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joubert, Paul E.; Crouch, Ben M.

1977-01-01

Analyzes the impact of the Voting Rights Act on black voter registration in Mississippi. Concludes that the future of black politics is highly uncertain in Mississippi. If the movement on the part of whites to disenfranchise blacks succeeds, and intimidation at the polls continues, advances made in the early 1970s could be seriously undermined.…

Blocked Paths, Uncertain Futures: The Postsecondary Education and Labor Market Prospects of Undocumented Latino Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abrego, Leisy J.; Gonzales, Roberto G.

2010-01-01

Over the past few decades, undocumented settlement in the United States has grown to unprecedented numbers. Among the nearly 12 million undocumented immigrants, a substantial portion of undocumented youth is growing up with legal access to public education through high school but facing legal restrictions and economic barriers to higher education…

Evaluation of Ares-I Control System Robustness to Uncertain Aerodynamics and Flex Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jang, Jiann-Woei; VanTassel, Chris; Bedrossian, Nazareth; Hall, Charles; Spanos, Pol

2008-01-01

This paper discusses the application of robust control theory to evaluate robustness of the Ares-I control systems. Three techniques for estimating upper and lower bounds of uncertain parameters which yield stable closed-loop response are used here: (1) Monte Carlo analysis, (2) mu analysis, and (3) characteristic frequency response analysis. All three methods are used to evaluate stability envelopes of the Ares-I control systems with uncertain aerodynamics and flex dynamics. The results show that characteristic frequency response analysis is the most effective of these methods for assessing robustness.

Finite-time synchronization of uncertain coupled switched neural networks under asynchronous switching.

PubMed

Wu, Yuanyuan; Cao, Jinde; Li, Qingbo; Alsaedi, Ahmed; Alsaadi, Fuad E

2017-01-01

This paper deals with the finite-time synchronization problem for a class of uncertain coupled switched neural networks under asynchronous switching. By constructing appropriate Lyapunov-like functionals and using the average dwell time technique, some sufficient criteria are derived to guarantee the finite-time synchronization of considered uncertain coupled switched neural networks. Meanwhile, the asynchronous switching feedback controller is designed to finite-time synchronize the concerned networks. Finally, two numerical examples are introduced to show the validity of the main results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust stabilization of the Space Station in the presence of inertia matrix uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wie, Bong; Liu, Qiang; Sunkel, John

1993-01-01

This paper presents a robust H-infinity full-state feedback control synthesis method for uncertain systems with D11 not equal to 0. The method is applied to the robust stabilization problem of the Space Station in the face of inertia matrix uncertainty. The control design objective is to find a robust controller that yields the largest stable hypercube in uncertain parameter space, while satisfying the nominal performance requirements. The significance of employing an uncertain plant model with D11 not equal 0 is demonstrated.

The Missing Silica Sink: Revisiting the Marine Sedimentary Si Cycle Using Cosmogenic 32Si

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, S.; Aller, R. C.; Cochran, J. K.

2017-10-01

Burial of biogenic silica (bSitotal) in high sedimentation rate continental margins remains highly uncertain. Cosmogenic 32Si (t1/2 140 years) can be used to trace the fates of bSitotal postdeposition, including as opal (bSiopal) and diagenetically altered opal (bSialtered), the latter dominantly authigenic clay (bSiclay). To determine the magnitude and form of bSitotal storage in coastal sediments, conventional operational leaches targeting bSiopal and bSialtered (including bSiclay) were modified for large-scale samples necessary for measurement of 32Si. The 32Si activity was used to estimate total biogenic silica burial (bSitotal = bSiopal + bSialtered) in several depositional settings: Gulf of Papua, Gulf of Mexico, Long Island Sound, and in the previously studied Amazon-Guianas deltaic system. In subtropical and temperate regions, 32Si was detected in both traditional biogenic silica leaches (bSiopal) and residual authigenic clays. Traditional bSiopal and modified operational leaches designed to target the most reactive authigenic silicates ( bSialtered) consistently underestimate authigenic clay formation (bSiclay) and thus the magnitude of bSitotal burial in temperate coastal zones and subtropical deltas by 2-4-fold. In tropical deltas, 32Si activities in the residual fraction after removal of bSiopal demonstrate rapid and almost complete alteration of initial bSiopal to new forms, most likely bSiclay. Globally, 4.5-4.9 Tmol/yr Si may be trapped in marine nearshore deposits as rapidly formed clay (bSiclay), 100% of the "missing silica sink" in the marine silica budget.

Modeling hydrologic controls on sulfur processes in sulfate-impacted wetland and stream sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ng, G.-H. C.; Yourd, A. R.; Johnson, N. W.; Myrbo, A. E.

2017-09-01

Recent studies show sulfur redox processes in terrestrial settings are more important than previously considered, but much remains uncertain about how these processes respond to dynamic hydrologic conditions in natural field settings. We used field observations from a sulfate-impacted wetland and stream in the mining region of Minnesota (USA) to calibrate a reactive transport model and evaluate sulfur and coupled geochemical processes under contrasting hydrogeochemical scenarios. Simulations of different hydrological conditions showed that flux and chemistry differences between surface water and deeper groundwater strongly control hyporheic zone geochemical profiles. However, model results for the stream channel versus wetlands indicate sediment organic carbon content to be the more important driver of sulfate reduction rates. A complex nonlinear relationship between sulfate reduction rates and geochemical conditions is apparent from the model's higher sensitivity to sulfate concentrations in settings with higher organic content. Across all scenarios, simulated e- balance results unexpectedly showed that sulfate reduction dominates iron reduction, which is contrary to the traditional thermodynamic ladder but corroborates recent experimental findings by Hansel et al. (2015) that "cryptic" sulfur cycling could drive sulfate reduction in preference over iron reduction. Following the thermodynamic ladder, our models shows that high surface water sulfate slows methanogenesis in shallow sediments, but field observations suggest that sulfate reduction may not entirely suppress methane. Overall, our results show that sulfate reduction may serve as a major component making up and influencing terrestrial redox processes, with dynamic hyporheic fluxes controlling sulfate concentrations and reaction rates, especially in high organic content settings.

Atmospheric Impacts of Emissions from Oil and Gas Development in the Uintah Basin, Utah, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helmig, D.; Boylan, P. J.; Hueber, J.; Van Dam, B. A.; Mauldin, L.; Parrish, D. D.

2012-12-01

In the Uintah Basin in northeast Utah, USA, surface ozone levels during winter months have approached and on occasion exceeded the US National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS). Emissions from the extensive oil and gas exploration in this region are suspected to be the cause of these ozone episodes; however emission rates and photochemical processes are uncertain. During February 2012 continuous surface measurements and vertical profiling from a tethered balloon platform at the Horsepool site yielded high resolution boundary layer profile data on ozone and ozone precursor compounds, i.e. nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds as well as methane. Findings from this study were: 1. Surface ozone during the study period, which had no snow cover, did not exceed the NAAQS. 2. Nitrogen oxides varied from 1-50 ppbv pointing towards significant emission sources, likely from oil and gas operations. 3. Methane concentrations were elevated, reaching up to ~10 times its Northern Hemisphere (NH) atmospheric background. 3. Light non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC) constituted the main fraction of volatile organic compounds. NMHC concentrations were highly elevated, exceeding levels seen in urban areas. 4. Ozone, methane, NOx and VOC showed distinct diurnal cycles, with large concentration increases seen at night, except for ozone, which showed the opposite behavior. 5. During nighttime concentrations of NOx, NMHC, and methane built up near the surface to levels that were much higher than their daytime concentrations. 6. Comparing NMHC to methane concentrations indicates a mass flux ratio of ~30% for total VOC/methane emissions for the Uintah Basin.

Water Resources Risks and the Climate Resilience Toolkit: Tools, Case Studies, and Partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, E. K.; Blodgett, D. L.; Booth, N.

2014-12-01

The Water Resources Risk topic of the Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT) is designed to provide decision support, technical, and educational resources to communities, water resource managers, policy analysts, and water utilities working to increase the resilience of water resources to climate change. We highlight the partnerships (between federal and state agencies, non-governmental organizations, and private partners), tools (e.g., downscaled climate products, historical and real-time water data, and decision support) and success stories that are informing the CRT Water Resources Risks Theme content, and identify remaining needs in available resources for building resilience of water resources to climate change. The following questions will frame the content of the Water Resources Risk CRT: How are human and natural components of the hydrologic cycle changing? How can communities and water managers plan for uncertain future conditions? How will changing water resources impact food production, energy resources, ecosystems, and human health? What water resources data are of high value to society and are they easily accessible? Input on existing tools, resources, or potential partnerships that could be used to further develop content and fill gaps in the Water Resources CRT is welcome. We also invite ideas for water resources 'innovation challenges', in which technology developers work to create tools to that enhance the capacity of communities and managers to increase resilience of water resources at the local and regional scales.