Needle Steering in Biological Tissue using Ultrasound-based Online Curvature Estimation

PubMed Central

Moreira, Pedro; Patil, Sachin; Alterovitz, Ron; Misra, Sarthak

2014-01-01

Percutaneous needle insertions are commonly performed for diagnostic and therapeutic purposes. Accurate placement of the needle tip is important to the success of many needle procedures. The current needle steering systems depend on needle-tissue-specific data, such as maximum curvature, that is unavailable prior to an interventional procedure. In this paper, we present a novel three-dimensional adaptive steering method for flexible bevel-tipped needles that is capable of performing accurate tip placement without previous knowledge about needle curvature. The method steers the needle by integrating duty-cycled needle steering, online curvature estimation, ultrasound-based needle tracking, and sampling-based motion planning. The needle curvature estimation is performed online and used to adapt the path and duty cycling. We evaluated the method using experiments in a homogenous gelatin phantom, a two-layer gelatin phantom, and a biological tissue phantom composed of a gelatin layer and in vitro chicken tissue. In all experiments, virtual obstacles and targets move in order to represent the disturbances that might occur due to tissue deformation and physiological processes. The average targeting error using our new adaptive method is 40% lower than using the conventional non-adaptive duty-cycled needle steering method. PMID:26229729

Frequency Domain Analysis of Sensor Data for Event Classification in Real-Time Robot Assisted Deburring

PubMed Central

Pappachan, Bobby K; Caesarendra, Wahyu; Tjahjowidodo, Tegoeh; Wijaya, Tomi

2017-01-01

Process monitoring using indirect methods relies on the usage of sensors. Using sensors to acquire vital process related information also presents itself with the problem of big data management and analysis. Due to uncertainty in the frequency of events occurring, a higher sampling rate is often used in real-time monitoring applications to increase the chances of capturing and understanding all possible events related to the process. Advanced signal processing methods are used to further decipher meaningful information from the acquired data. In this research work, power spectrum density (PSD) of sensor data acquired at sampling rates between 40–51.2 kHz was calculated and the corelation between PSD and completed number of cycles/passes is presented. Here, the progress in number of cycles/passes is the event this research work intends to classify and the algorithm used to compute PSD is Welch’s estimate method. A comparison between Welch’s estimate method and statistical methods is also discussed. A clear co-relation was observed using Welch’s estimate to classify the number of cycles/passes. The paper also succeeds in classifying vibration signal generated by the spindle from the vibration signal acquired during finishing process. PMID:28556809

Characterizing model uncertainties in the life cycle of lignocellulose-based ethanol fuels.

PubMed

Spatari, Sabrina; MacLean, Heather L

2010-11-15

Renewable and low carbon fuel standards being developed at federal and state levels require an estimation of the life cycle carbon intensity (LCCI) of candidate fuels that can substitute for gasoline, such as second generation bioethanol. Estimating the LCCI of such fuels with a high degree of confidence requires the use of probabilistic methods to account for known sources of uncertainty. We construct life cycle models for the bioconversion of agricultural residue (corn stover) and energy crops (switchgrass) and explicitly examine uncertainty using Monte Carlo simulation. Using statistical methods to identify significant model variables from public data sets and Aspen Plus chemical process models,we estimate stochastic life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the two feedstocks combined with two promising fuel conversion technologies. The approach can be generalized to other biofuel systems. Our results show potentially high and uncertain GHG emissions for switchgrass-ethanol due to uncertain CO₂ flux from land use change and N₂O flux from N fertilizer. However, corn stover-ethanol,with its low-in-magnitude, tight-in-spread LCCI distribution, shows considerable promise for reducing life cycle GHG emissions relative to gasoline and corn-ethanol. Coproducts are important for reducing the LCCI of all ethanol fuels we examine.

Advancing Methods for Estimating Soil Nitrous Oxide Emissions by Incorporating Freeze-Thaw Cycles into a Tier 3 Model-Based Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogle, S. M.; DelGrosso, S.; Parton, W. J.

2017-12-01

Soil nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural management are a key source of greenhouse gas emissions in many countries due to the widespread use of nitrogen fertilizers, manure amendments from livestock production, planting legumes and other practices that affect N dynamics in soils. In the United States, soil nitrous oxide emissions have ranged from 250 to 280 Tg CO2 equivalent from 1990 to 2015, with uncertainties around 20-30 percent. A Tier 3 method has been used to estimate the emissions with the DayCent ecosystem model. While the Tier 3 approach is considerably more accurate than IPCC Tier 1 methods, there is still the possibility of biases in emission estimates if there are processes and drivers that are not represented in the modeling framework. Furthermore, a key principle of IPCC guidance is that inventory compilers estimate emissions as accurately as possible. Freeze-thaw cycles and associated hot moments of nitrous oxide emissions are one of key drivers influencing emissions in colder climates, such as the cold temperate climates of the upper Midwest and New England regions of the United States. Freeze-thaw activity interacts with management practices that are increasing N availability in the plant-soil system, leading to greater nitrous oxide emissions during transition periods from winter to spring. Given the importance of this driver, the DayCent model has been revised to incorproate freeze-thaw cycles, and the results suggests that including this driver can significantly modify the emissions estimates in cold temperate climate regions. Consequently, future methodological development to improve estimation of nitrous oxide emissions from soils would benefit from incorporating freeze-thaw cycles into the modeling framework for national territories with a cold climate.

Is objective and accurate cognitive assessment across the menstrual cycle possible? A feasibility study

PubMed Central

Neill, Jo; Scally, Andy; Tuffnell, Derek; Marshall, Kay

2015-01-01

Objectives: Variation in plasma hormone levels influences the neurobiology of brain regions involved in cognition and emotion processing. Fluctuations in hormone levels across the menstrual cycle could therefore alter cognitive performance and wellbeing; reports have provided conflicting results, however. The aim of this study was to assess whether objective assessment of cognitive performance and self-reported wellbeing during the follicular and luteal phases of the menstrual cycle is feasible and investigate the possible reasons for variation in effects previously reported. Methods: The Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery and Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale were used to assess the cognitive performance and wellbeing of 12 women. Data were analysed by self-reported and hormone-estimated phases of the menstrual cycle. Results: Recruitment to the study and assessment of cognition and wellbeing was without issue. Plasma hormone and peptide estimation showed substantial individual variation and suggests inaccuracy in self-reported menstrual phase estimation. Conclusion: Objective assessment of cognitive performance and self-assessed wellbeing across the menstrual cycle is feasible. Grouping data by hormonal profile rather by self-reported phase estimation may influence phase-mediated results. Future studies should use plasma hormone and peptide profiles to estimate cycle phase and group data for analyses. PMID:26770760

Size of the coming solar cycle 24 based on Ohl's Precursor Method, final estimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kane, R. P.

2010-07-01

In Ohl's Precursor Method (Ohl, 1966, 1976), the geomagnetic activity during the declining phase of a sunspot cycle is shown to be well correlated with the size (maximum sunspot number Rz(max)) of the next cycle. For solar cycle 24, Kane (2007a) used aa(min)=15.5 (12-month running mean), which occurred during March-May of 2006 and made a preliminary estimate Rz(max)=124±26 (12-month running mean). However, in the next few months, the aa index first increased and then decreased to a new low value of 14.8 in July 2007. With this new low value, the prediction was Rz(max)=117±26 (12-month running mean). However, even this proved a false signal. Since then, the aa values have decreased considerably and the last 12-monthly value is 8.7, centered at May 2009. For solar cycle 24, using aa(min)=8.7, the latest prediction is, Rz(max)=58.0±25.0.

A Bayesian estimation of a stochastic predator-prey model of economic fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dibeh, Ghassan; Luchinsky, Dmitry G.; Luchinskaya, Daria D.; Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.

2007-06-01

In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework for the empirical estimation of the parameters of one of the best known nonlinear models of the business cycle: The Marx-inspired model of a growth cycle introduced by R. M. Goodwin. The model predicts a series of closed cycles representing the dynamics of labor's share and the employment rate in the capitalist economy. The Bayesian framework is used to empirically estimate a modified Goodwin model. The original model is extended in two ways. First, we allow for exogenous periodic variations of the otherwise steady growth rates of the labor force and productivity per worker. Second, we allow for stochastic variations of those parameters. The resultant modified Goodwin model is a stochastic predator-prey model with periodic forcing. The model is then estimated using a newly developed Bayesian estimation method on data sets representing growth cycles in France and Italy during the years 1960-2005. Results show that inference of the parameters of the stochastic Goodwin model can be achieved. The comparison of the dynamics of the Goodwin model with the inferred values of parameters demonstrates quantitative agreement with the growth cycle empirical data.

A quick on-line state of health estimation method for Li-ion battery with incremental capacity curves processed by Gaussian filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yi; Abdel-Monem, Mohamed; Gopalakrishnan, Rahul; Berecibar, Maitane; Nanini-Maury, Elise; Omar, Noshin; van den Bossche, Peter; Van Mierlo, Joeri

2018-01-01

This paper proposes an advanced state of health (SoH) estimation method for high energy NMC lithium-ion batteries based on the incremental capacity (IC) analysis. IC curves are used due to their ability of detect and quantify battery degradation mechanism. A simple and robust smoothing method is proposed based on Gaussian filter to reduce the noise on IC curves, the signatures associated with battery ageing can therefore be accurately identified. A linear regression relationship is found between the battery capacity with the positions of features of interest (FOIs) on IC curves. Results show that the developed SoH estimation function from one single battery cell is able to evaluate the SoH of other batteries cycled under different cycling depth with less than 2.5% maximum errors, which proves the robustness of the proposed method on SoH estimation. With this technique, partial charging voltage curves can be used for SoH estimation and the testing time can be therefore largely reduced. This method shows great potential to be applied in reality, as it only requires static charging curves and can be easily implemented in battery management system (BMS).

SU-D-207A-07: The Effects of Inter-Cycle Respiratory Motion Variation On Dose Accumulation in Single Fraction MR-Guided SBRT Treatment of Renal Cell Carcinoma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stemkens, B; Glitzner, M; Kontaxis, C

Purpose: To assess the dose deposition in simulated single-fraction MR-Linac treatments of renal cell carcinoma, when inter-cycle respiratory motion variation is taken into account using online MRI. Methods: Three motion characterization methods, with increasing complexity, were compared to evaluate the effect of inter-cycle motion variation and drifts on the accumulated dose for an SBRT kidney MR-Linac treatment: 1) STATIC, in which static anatomy was assumed, 2) AVG-RESP, in which 4D-MRI phase-volumes were time-weighted, based on the respiratory phase and 3) PCA, in which 3D volumes were generated using a PCA-model, enabling the detection of inter-cycle variations and drifts. An experimentalmore » ITV-based kidney treatment was simulated in a 1.5T magnetic field on three volunteer datasets. For each volunteer a retrospectively sorted 4D-MRI (ten respiratory phases) and fast 2D cine-MR images (temporal resolution = 476ms) were acquired to simulate MR-imaging during radiation. For each method, the high spatio-temporal resolution 3D volumes were non-rigidly registered to obtain deformation vector fields (DVFs). Using the DVFs, pseudo-CTs (generated from the 4D-MRI) were deformed and the dose was accumulated for the entire treatment. The accuracies of all methods were independently determined using an additional, orthogonal 2D-MRI slice. Results: Motion was most accurately estimated using the PCA method, which correctly estimated drifts and inter-cycle variations (RMSE=3.2, 2.2, 1.1mm on average for STATIC, AVG-RESP and PCA, compared to the 2DMRI slice). Dose-volume parameters on the ITV showed moderate changes (D99=35.2, 32.5, 33.8Gy for STATIC, AVG-RESP and PCA). AVG-RESP showed distinct hot/cold spots outside the ITV margin, which were more distributed for the PCA scenario, since inter-cycle variations were not modeled by the AVG-RESP method. Conclusion: Dose differences were observed when inter-cycle variations were taken into account. The increased inter-cycle randomness in motion as captured by the PCA model mitigates the local (erroneous) hotspots estimated by the AVG-RESP method.« less

Fatigue properties of JIS H3300 C1220 copper for strain life prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harun, Muhammad Faiz; Mohammad, Roslina

2018-05-01

The existing methods for estimating strain life parameters are dependent on the material's monotonic tensile properties. However, a few of these methods yield quite complicated expressions for calculating fatigue parameters, and are specific to certain groups of materials only. The Universal Slopes method, Modified Universal Slopes method, Uniform Material Law, the Hardness method, and Medians method are a few existing methods for predicting strain-life fatigue based on monotonic tensile material properties and hardness of material. In the present study, nine methods for estimating fatigue life and properties are applied on JIS H3300 C1220 copper to determine the best methods for strain life estimation of this ductile material. Experimental strain-life curves are compared to estimations obtained using each method. Muralidharan-Manson's Modified Universal Slopes method and Bäumel-Seeger's method for unalloyed and low-alloy steels are found to yield batter accuracy in estimating fatigue life with a deviation of less than 25%. However, the prediction of both methods only yield much better accuracy for a cycle of less than 1000 or for strain amplitudes of more than 1% and less than 6%. Manson's Original Universal Slopes method and Ong's Modified Four-Point Correlation method are found to predict the strain-life fatigue of copper with better accuracy for a high number of cycles of strain amplitudes of less than 1%. The differences between mechanical behavior during monotonic and cyclic loading and the complexity in deciding the coefficient in an equation are probably the reason for the lack of a reliable method for estimating fatigue behavior using the monotonic properties of a group of materials. It is therefore suggested that a differential approach and new expressions be developed to estimate the strain-life fatigue parameters for ductile materials such as copper.

Cost benefits of advanced software: A review of methodology used at Kennedy Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joglekar, Prafulla N.

1993-01-01

To assist rational investments in advanced software, a formal, explicit, and multi-perspective cost-benefit analysis methodology is proposed. The methodology can be implemented through a six-stage process which is described and explained. The current practice of cost-benefit analysis at KSC is reviewed in the light of this methodology. The review finds that there is a vicious circle operating. Unsound methods lead to unreliable cost-benefit estimates. Unreliable estimates convince management that cost-benefit studies should not be taken seriously. Then, given external demands for cost-benefit estimates, management encourages software enginees to somehow come up with the numbers for their projects. Lacking the expertise needed to do a proper study, courageous software engineers with vested interests use ad hoc and unsound methods to generate some estimates. In turn, these estimates are unreliable, and the cycle continues. The proposed methodology should help KSC to break out of this cycle.

ROOT BIOMASS ALLOCATION IN THE WORLD'S UPLAND FORESTS

EPA Science Inventory

Because the world's forests play a major role in regulating nutrient and carbon cycles, there is much interest in estimating their biomass. Estimates of aboveground biomass based on well-established methods are relatively abundant; estimates of root biomass based on standard meth...

Copeptin Levels Remain Unchanged during the Menstrual Cycle

PubMed Central

Blum, Claudine A.; Mirza, Uzma; Christ-Crain, Mirjam; Mueller, Beat; Schindler, Christian; Puder, Jardena J.

2014-01-01

Background Copeptin, a surrogate marker for arginin vasopressin production, is evaluated as an osmo-dependent stress and inflammatory biomarker in different diseases. We investigated copeptin during the menstrual cycle and its relationship to sex hormones, markers of subclinical inflammation and estimates of body fluid. Methods In 15 healthy women with regular menstrual cycles, blood was drawn on fifteen defined days of their menstrual cycle and was assayed for copeptin, progesterone, estradiol, luteinizing hormone, high-sensitive C-reactive protein, tumor necrosis factor-alpha and procalcitonin. Symptoms of fluid retention were assessed on each visit, and bio impedance analysis was measured thrice to estimate body fluid changes. Mixed linear model analysis was performed to assess the changes of copeptin across the menstrual cycle and the relationship of sex hormones, markers of subclinical inflammation and estimates of body fluid with copeptin. Results Copeptin levels did not significantly change during the menstrual cycle (p = 0.16). Throughout the menstrual cycle, changes in estradiol (p = 0.002) and in the physical premenstrual symptom score (p = 0.01) were positively related to copeptin, but changes in other sex hormones, in markers of subclinical inflammation or in bio impedance analysis-estimated body fluid were not (all p = ns). Conclusion Although changes in estradiol and the physical premenstrual symptom score appear to be related to copeptin changes, copeptin does not significantly change during the menstrual cycle. PMID:24866705

Evaluation of Statistical Methods for Modeling Historical Resource Production and Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nanzad, Bolorchimeg

This master's thesis project consists of two parts. Part I of the project compares modeling of historical resource production and forecasting of future production trends using the logit/probit transform advocated by Rutledge (2011) with conventional Hubbert curve fitting, using global coal production as a case study. The conventional Hubbert/Gaussian method fits a curve to historical production data whereas a logit/probit transform uses a linear fit to a subset of transformed production data. Within the errors and limitations inherent in this type of statistical modeling, these methods provide comparable results. That is, despite that apparent goodness-of-fit achievable using the Logit/Probit methodology, neither approach provides a significant advantage over the other in either explaining the observed data or in making future projections. For mature production regions, those that have already substantially passed peak production, results obtained by either method are closely comparable and reasonable, and estimates of ultimately recoverable resources obtained by either method are consistent with geologically estimated reserves. In contrast, for immature regions, estimates of ultimately recoverable resources generated by either of these alternative methods are unstable and thus, need to be used with caution. Although the logit/probit transform generates high quality-of-fit correspondence with historical production data, this approach provides no new information compared to conventional Gaussian or Hubbert-type models and may have the effect of masking the noise and/or instability in the data and the derived fits. In particular, production forecasts for immature or marginally mature production systems based on either method need to be regarded with considerable caution. Part II of the project investigates the utility of a novel alternative method for multicyclic Hubbert modeling tentatively termed "cycle-jumping" wherein overlap of multiple cycles is limited. The model is designed in a way that each cycle is described by the same three parameters as conventional multicyclic Hubbert model and every two cycles are connected with a transition width. Transition width indicates the shift from one cycle to the next and is described as weighted coaddition of neighboring two cycles. It is determined by three parameters: transition year, transition width, and gamma parameter for weighting. The cycle-jumping method provides superior model compared to the conventional multicyclic Hubbert model and reflects historical production behavior more reasonably and practically, by better modeling of the effects of technological transitions and socioeconomic factors that affect historical resource production behavior by explicitly considering the form of the transitions between production cycles.

MPN estimation of qPCR target sequence recoveries from whole cell calibrator samples

EPA Science Inventory

DNA extracts from enumerated target organism cells (calibrator samples) have been used for estimating Enterococcus cell equivalent densities in surface waters by a comparative cycle threshold (Ct) qPCR analysis method. To compare surface water Enterococcus density estimates from ...

Using protein-protein interactions for refining gene networks estimated from microarray data by Bayesian networks.

PubMed

Nariai, N; Kim, S; Imoto, S; Miyano, S

2004-01-01

We propose a statistical method to estimate gene networks from DNA microarray data and protein-protein interactions. Because physical interactions between proteins or multiprotein complexes are likely to regulate biological processes, using only mRNA expression data is not sufficient for estimating a gene network accurately. Our method adds knowledge about protein-protein interactions to the estimation method of gene networks under a Bayesian statistical framework. In the estimated gene network, a protein complex is modeled as a virtual node based on principal component analysis. We show the effectiveness of the proposed method through the analysis of Saccharomyces cerevisiae cell cycle data. The proposed method improves the accuracy of the estimated gene networks, and successfully identifies some biological facts.

Estimation of optimal biomass fraction measuring cycle formunicipal solid waste incineration facilities in Korea.

PubMed

Kang, Seongmin; Cha, Jae Hyung; Hong, Yoon-Jung; Lee, Daekyeom; Kim, Ki-Hyun; Jeon, Eui-Chan

2018-01-01

This study estimates the optimum sampling cycle using a statistical method for biomass fraction. More than ten samples were collected from each of the three municipal solid waste (MSW) facilities between June 2013 and March 2015 and the biomass fraction was analyzed. The analysis data were grouped into monthly, quarterly, semi-annual, and annual intervals and the optimum sampling cycle for the detection of the biomass fraction was estimated. Biomass fraction data did not show a normal distribution. Therefore, the non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis test was applied to compare the average values for each sample group. The Kruskal-Wallis test results showed that the average monthly, quarterly, semi-annual, and annual values for all three MSW incineration facilities were equal. Therefore, the biomass fraction at the MSW incineration facilities should be calculated on a yearly cycle which is the longest period of the temporal cycles tested. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Wireless Sensor Network with Soft Computing Localization Techniques for Track Cycling Applications.

PubMed

Gharghan, Sadik Kamel; Nordin, Rosdiadee; Ismail, Mahamod

2016-08-06

In this paper, we propose two soft computing localization techniques for wireless sensor networks (WSNs). The two techniques, Neural Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), focus on a range-based localization method which relies on the measurement of the received signal strength indicator (RSSI) from the three ZigBee anchor nodes distributed throughout the track cycling field. The soft computing techniques aim to estimate the distance between bicycles moving on the cycle track for outdoor and indoor velodromes. In the first approach the ANFIS was considered, whereas in the second approach the ANN was hybridized individually with three optimization algorithms, namely Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Gravitational Search Algorithm (GSA), and Backtracking Search Algorithm (BSA). The results revealed that the hybrid GSA-ANN outperforms the other methods adopted in this paper in terms of accuracy localization and distance estimation accuracy. The hybrid GSA-ANN achieves a mean absolute distance estimation error of 0.02 m and 0.2 m for outdoor and indoor velodromes, respectively.

A Wireless Sensor Network with Soft Computing Localization Techniques for Track Cycling Applications

PubMed Central

Gharghan, Sadik Kamel; Nordin, Rosdiadee; Ismail, Mahamod

2016-01-01

In this paper, we propose two soft computing localization techniques for wireless sensor networks (WSNs). The two techniques, Neural Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), focus on a range-based localization method which relies on the measurement of the received signal strength indicator (RSSI) from the three ZigBee anchor nodes distributed throughout the track cycling field. The soft computing techniques aim to estimate the distance between bicycles moving on the cycle track for outdoor and indoor velodromes. In the first approach the ANFIS was considered, whereas in the second approach the ANN was hybridized individually with three optimization algorithms, namely Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Gravitational Search Algorithm (GSA), and Backtracking Search Algorithm (BSA). The results revealed that the hybrid GSA-ANN outperforms the other methods adopted in this paper in terms of accuracy localization and distance estimation accuracy. The hybrid GSA-ANN achieves a mean absolute distance estimation error of 0.02 m and 0.2 m for outdoor and indoor velodromes, respectively. PMID:27509495

Driving range estimation for electric vehicles based on driving condition identification and forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Chaofeng; Dai, Wei; Chen, Liao; Chen, Long; Wang, Limei

2017-10-01

With the impact of serious environmental pollution in our cities combined with the ongoing depletion of oil resources, electric vehicles are becoming highly favored as means of transport. Not only for the advantage of low noise, but for their high energy efficiency and zero pollution. The Power battery is used as the energy source of electric vehicles. However, it does currently still have a few shortcomings, noticeably the low energy density, with high costs and short cycle life results in limited mileage compared with conventional passenger vehicles. There is great difference in vehicle energy consumption rate under different environment and driving conditions. Estimation error of current driving range is relatively large due to without considering the effects of environmental temperature and driving conditions. The development of a driving range estimation method will have a great impact on the electric vehicles. A new driving range estimation model based on the combination of driving cycle identification and prediction is proposed and investigated. This model can effectively eliminate mileage errors and has good convergence with added robustness. Initially the identification of the driving cycle is based on Kernel Principal Component feature parameters and fuzzy C referring to clustering algorithm. Secondly, a fuzzy rule between the characteristic parameters and energy consumption is established under MATLAB/Simulink environment. Furthermore the Markov algorithm and BP(Back Propagation) neural network method is utilized to predict the future driving conditions to improve the accuracy of the remaining range estimation. Finally, driving range estimation method is carried out under the ECE 15 condition by using the rotary drum test bench, and the experimental results are compared with the estimation results. Results now show that the proposed driving range estimation method can not only estimate the remaining mileage, but also eliminate the fluctuation of the residual range under different driving conditions.

Advanced Extremely High Frequency Satellite (AEHF)

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

control their tactical and strategic forces at all levels of conflict up to and including general nuclear war, and it supports the attainment of...10195.1 10622.2 Confidence Level Confidence Level of cost estimate for current APB: 50% The ICE) that supports the AEHF SV 1-4, like all life-cycle cost...mathematically the precise confidence levels associated with life-cycle cost estimates prepared for MDAPs. Based on the rigor in methods used in building

Menstrual Cycle Phase Does Not Predict Political Conservatism

PubMed Central

Scott, Isabel M.; Pound, Nicholas

2015-01-01

Recent authors have reported a relationship between women's fertility status, as indexed by menstrual cycle phase, and conservatism in moral, social and political values. We conducted a survey to test for the existence of a relationship between menstrual cycle day and conservatism. 2213 women reporting regular menstrual cycles provided data about their political views. Of these women, 2208 provided information about their cycle date, 1260 provided additional evidence of reliability in self-reported cycle date, and of these, 750 also indicated an absence of hormonal disruptors such as recent hormonal contraception use, breastfeeding or pregnancy. Cycle day was used to estimate day-specific fertility rate (probability of conception); political conservatism was measured via direct self-report and via responses to the "Moral Foundations” questionnaire. We also recorded relationship status, which has been reported to interact with menstrual cycle phase in determining political preferences. We found no evidence of a relationship between estimated cyclical fertility changes and conservatism, and no evidence of an interaction between relationship status and cyclical fertility in determining political attitudes. Our findings were robust to multiple inclusion/exclusion criteria and to different methods of estimating fertility and measuring conservatism. In summary, the relationship between cycle-linked reproductive parameters and conservatism may be weaker or less reliable than previously thought. PMID:25923332

Menstrual cycle phase does not predict political conservatism.

PubMed

Scott, Isabel M; Pound, Nicholas

2015-01-01

Recent authors have reported a relationship between women's fertility status, as indexed by menstrual cycle phase, and conservatism in moral, social and political values. We conducted a survey to test for the existence of a relationship between menstrual cycle day and conservatism. 2213 women reporting regular menstrual cycles provided data about their political views. Of these women, 2208 provided information about their cycle date, 1260 provided additional evidence of reliability in self-reported cycle date, and of these, 750 also indicated an absence of hormonal disruptors such as recent hormonal contraception use, breastfeeding or pregnancy. Cycle day was used to estimate day-specific fertility rate (probability of conception); political conservatism was measured via direct self-report and via responses to the "Moral Foundations" questionnaire. We also recorded relationship status, which has been reported to interact with menstrual cycle phase in determining political preferences. We found no evidence of a relationship between estimated cyclical fertility changes and conservatism, and no evidence of an interaction between relationship status and cyclical fertility in determining political attitudes. Our findings were robust to multiple inclusion/exclusion criteria and to different methods of estimating fertility and measuring conservatism. In summary, the relationship between cycle-linked reproductive parameters and conservatism may be weaker or less reliable than previously thought.

Analysis of regression methods for solar activity forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lundquist, C. A.; Vaughan, W. W.

1979-01-01

The paper deals with the potential use of the most recent solar data to project trends in the next few years. Assuming that a mode of solar influence on weather can be identified, advantageous use of that knowledge presumably depends on estimating future solar activity. A frequently used technique for solar cycle predictions is a linear regression procedure along the lines formulated by McNish and Lincoln (1949). The paper presents a sensitivity analysis of the behavior of such regression methods relative to the following aspects: cycle minimum, time into cycle, composition of historical data base, and unnormalized vs. normalized solar cycle data. Comparative solar cycle forecasts for several past cycles are presented as to these aspects of the input data. Implications for the current cycle, No. 21, are also given.

Quantifying cell turnover using CFSE data.

PubMed

Ganusov, Vitaly V; Pilyugin, Sergei S; de Boer, Rob J; Murali-Krishna, Kaja; Ahmed, Rafi; Antia, Rustom

2005-03-01

The CFSE dye dilution assay is widely used to determine the number of divisions a given CFSE labelled cell has undergone in vitro and in vivo. In this paper, we consider how the data obtained with the use of CFSE (CFSE data) can be used to estimate the parameters determining cell division and death. For a homogeneous cell population (i.e., a population with the parameters for cell division and death being independent of time and the number of divisions cells have undergone), we consider a specific biologically based "Smith-Martin" model of cell turnover and analyze three different techniques for estimation of its parameters: direct fitting, indirect fitting and rescaling method. We find that using only CFSE data, the duration of the division phase (i.e., approximately the S+G2+M phase of the cell cycle) can be estimated with the use of either technique. In some cases, the average division or cell cycle time can be estimated using the direct fitting of the model solution to the data or by using the Gett-Hodgkin method [Gett A. and Hodgkin, P. 2000. A cellular calculus for signal integration by T cells. Nat. Immunol. 1:239-244]. Estimation of the death rates during commitment to division (i.e., approximately the G1 phase of the cell cycle) and during the division phase may not be feasible with the use of only CFSE data. We propose that measuring an additional parameter, the fraction of cells in division, may allow estimation of all model parameters including the death rates during different stages of the cell cycle.

Comparison between remote sensing and a dynamic vegetation model for estimating terrestrial primary production of Africa.

PubMed

Ardö, Jonas

2015-12-01

Africa is an important part of the global carbon cycle. It is also a continent facing potential problems due to increasing resource demand in combination with climate change-induced changes in resource supply. Quantifying the pools and fluxes constituting the terrestrial African carbon cycle is a challenge, because of uncertainties in meteorological driver data, lack of validation data, and potentially uncertain representation of important processes in major ecosystems. In this paper, terrestrial primary production estimates derived from remote sensing and a dynamic vegetation model are compared and quantified for major African land cover types. Continental gross primary production estimates derived from remote sensing were higher than corresponding estimates derived from a dynamic vegetation model. However, estimates of continental net primary production from remote sensing were lower than corresponding estimates from the dynamic vegetation model. Variation was found among land cover classes, and the largest differences in gross primary production were found in the evergreen broadleaf forest. Average carbon use efficiency (NPP/GPP) was 0.58 for the vegetation model and 0.46 for the remote sensing method. Validation versus in situ data of aboveground net primary production revealed significant positive relationships for both methods. A combination of the remote sensing method with the dynamic vegetation model did not strongly affect this relationship. Observed significant differences in estimated vegetation productivity may have several causes, including model design and temperature sensitivity. Differences in carbon use efficiency reflect underlying model assumptions. Integrating the realistic process representation of dynamic vegetation models with the high resolution observational strength of remote sensing may support realistic estimation of components of the carbon cycle and enhance resource monitoring, providing suitable validation data is available.

STELLAR MAGNETIC CYCLES IN THE SOLAR-LIKE STARS KEPLER-17 AND KEPLER-63

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Estrela, Raissa; Valio, Adriana, E-mail: rlf.estrela@gmail.com, E-mail: avalio@craam.mackenzie.br

2016-11-01

The stellar magnetic field plays a crucial role in the star internal mechanisms, as in the interactions with its environment. The study of starspots provides information about the stellar magnetic field and can characterize the cycle. Moreover, the analysis of solar-type stars is also useful to shed light onto the origin of the solar magnetic field. The objective of this work is to characterize the magnetic activity of stars. Here, we studied two solar-type stars, Kepler-17 and Kepler-63, using two methods to estimate the magnetic cycle length. The first one characterizes the spots (radius, intensity, and location) by fitting themore » small variations in the light curve of a star caused by the occultation of a spot during a planetary transit. This approach yields the number of spots present in the stellar surface and the flux deficit subtracted from the star by their presence during each transit. The second method estimates the activity from the excess in the residuals of the transit light curves. This excess is obtained by subtracting a spotless model transit from the light curve and then integrating all the residuals during the transit. The presence of long-term periodicity is estimated in both time series. With the first method, we obtained P {sub cycle} = 1.12 ± 0.16 year (Kepler-17) and P {sub cycle} = 1.27 ± 0.16 year (Kepler-63), and for the second approach the values are 1.35 ± 0.27 year and 1.27 ± 0.12 year, respectively. The results of both methods agree with each other and confirm their robustness.« less

Estimating soil water evaporation using radar measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sadeghi, Ali M.; Scott, H. D.; Waite, W. P.; Asrar, G.

1988-01-01

Field studies were conducted to evaluate the application of radar reflectivity as compared with the shortwave reflectivity (albedo) used in the Idso-Jackson equation for the estimation of daily evaporation under overcast sky and subhumid climatic conditions. Soil water content, water potential, shortwave and radar reflectivity, and soil and air temperatures were monitored during three soil drying cycles. The data from each cycle were used to calculate daily evaporation from the Idso-Jackson equation and from two other standard methods, the modified Penman and plane of zero-flux. All three methods resulted in similar estimates of evaporation under clear sky conditions; however, under overcast sky conditions, evaporation fluxes computed from the Idso-Jackson equation were consistently lower than the other two methods. The shortwave albedo values in the Idso-Jackson equation were then replaced with radar reflectivities and a new set of total daily evaporation fluxes were calculated. This resulted in a significant improvement in computed soil evaporation fluxes from the Idso-Jackson equation, and a better agreement between the three methods under overcast sky conditions.

VR-simulation cataract surgery in non-experienced trainees: evolution of surgical skill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Söderberg, Per; Erngrund, Markus; Skarman, Eva; Nordh, Leif; Laurell, Carl-Gustaf

2011-03-01

Conclusion: The current data imply that the performance index as defined herein is a valid measure of the performance of a trainee using the virtual reality phacoemulsification simulator. Further, the performance index increase linearly with measurement cycles for less than five measurement cycles. To fully use the learning potential of the simulator more than four measurement cycles are required. Materials and methods: Altogether, 10 trainees were introduced to the simulator by an instructor and then performed a training program including four measurement cycles with three iterated measurements of the simulation at the end of each cycle. The simulation characteristics was standardized and defined in 14 parameters. The simulation was measured separately for the sculpting phase in 21 variables, and for the evacuation phase in 22 variables. A performance index based on all measured variables was estimated for the sculpting phase and the evacuation phase, respectively, for each measurement and the three measurements for each cycle were averaged. Finally, the performance as a function of measurement cycle was estimated for each trainee with regression, assuming a straight line. The estimated intercept and inclination coefficients, respectively, were finally averaged for all trainees. Results: The performance increased linearly with the number of measurement cycles both for the sculpting and for the evacuation phase.

Early Estimation of Solar Activity Cycle: Potential Capability and Limits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kitiashvili, Irina N.; Collins, Nancy S.

2017-01-01

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and longterm sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

ESTIMATE OF SOLAR MAXIMUM USING THE 1-8 Å GEOSTATIONARY OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL SATELLITES X-RAY MEASUREMENTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Winter, L. M.; Balasubramaniam, K. S., E-mail: lwinter@aer.com

We present an alternate method of determining the progression of the solar cycle through an analysis of the solar X-ray background. Our results are based on the NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) X-ray data in the 1-8 Å band from 1986 to the present, covering solar cycles 22, 23, and 24. The X-ray background level tracks the progression of the solar cycle through its maximum and minimum. Using the X-ray data, we can therefore make estimates of the solar cycle progression and the date of solar maximum. Based upon our analysis, we conclude that the Sun reached its hemisphere-averagedmore » maximum in solar cycle 24 in late 2013. This is within six months of the NOAA prediction of a maximum in spring 2013.« less

Gauging the Nearness and Size of Cycle Maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

2003-01-01

A simple method for monitoring the nearness and size of conventional cycle maximum for an ongoing sunspot cycle is examined. The method uses the observed maximum daily value and the maximum monthly mean value of international sunspot number and the maximum value of the 2-mo moving average of monthly mean sunspot number to effect the estimation. For cycle 23, a maximum daily value of 246, a maximum monthly mean of 170.1, and a maximum 2-mo moving average of 148.9 were each observed in July 2000. Taken together, these values strongly suggest that conventional maximum amplitude for cycle 23 would be approx. 124.5, occurring near July 2002 +/-5 mo, very close to the now well-established conventional maximum amplitude and occurrence date for cycle 23-120.8 in April 2000.

A comparison of practical assessment methods to determine treadmill, cycle and elliptical ergometer VO2peak

PubMed Central

Mays, Ryan J.; Boér, Nicholas F.; Mealey, Lisa M.; Kim, Kevin H.; Goss, Fredric L.

2015-01-01

This investigation compared estimated and predicted peak oxygen consumption (VO2peak) and maximal heart rate (HRmax) among the treadmill, cycle ergometer and elliptical ergometer. Seventeen women (mean ± SE: 21.9 ± .3 yrs) exercised to exhaustion on all modalities. ACSM metabolic equations were used to estimate VO2peak. Digital displays on the elliptical ergometer were used to estimate VO2peak. Two individual linear regression methods were used to predict VO2peak: 1) two steady state heart rate (HR) responses up to 85% of age-predicted HRmax, and 2) multiple steady state/non-steady state HR responses up to 85% of age-predicted HRmax. Estimated VO2peak for the treadmill (46.3 ± 1.3 ml · kg−1 · min−1) and the elliptical ergometer (44.4 ± 1.0 ml · kg−1 · min−1) did not differ. The cycle ergometer estimated VO2peak (36.5 ± 1.0 ml · kg−1 · min−1) was lower (p < .001) than the estimated VO2peak values for the treadmill and elliptical ergometer. Elliptical ergometer VO2peak predicted from steady state (51.4 ± .8 ml · kg−1 · min−1) and steady state/non-steady state (50.3 ± 2.0 ml · kg−1 · min−1) models were higher than estimated elliptical ergometer VO2peak, p < .01. HRmax and estimates of VO2peak were similar between the treadmill and elliptical ergometer, thus cross-modal exercise prescriptions may be generated. The use of digital display estimates of submaximal oxygen uptake for the elliptical ergometer may not be an accurate method for predicting VO2peak. Health-fitness professionals should use caution when utilizing submaximal elliptical ergometer digital display estimates to predict VO2peak. PMID:20393357

Using flow cytometry to estimate pollen DNA content: improved methodology and applications

PubMed Central

Kron, Paul; Husband, Brian C.

2012-01-01

Background and Aims Flow cytometry has been used to measure nuclear DNA content in pollen, mostly to understand pollen development and detect unreduced gametes. Published data have not always met the high-quality standards required for some applications, in part due to difficulties inherent in the extraction of nuclei. Here we describe a simple and relatively novel method for extracting pollen nuclei, involving the bursting of pollen through a nylon mesh, compare it with other methods and demonstrate its broad applicability and utility. Methods The method was tested across 80 species, 64 genera and 33 families, and the data were evaluated using established criteria for estimating genome size and analysing cell cycle. Filter bursting was directly compared with chopping in five species, yields were compared with published values for sonicated samples, and the method was applied by comparing genome size estimates for leaf and pollen nuclei in six species. Key Results Data quality met generally applied standards for estimating genome size in 81 % of species and the higher best practice standards for cell cycle analysis in 51 %. In 41 % of species we met the most stringent criterion of screening 10 000 pollen grains per sample. In direct comparison with two chopping techniques, our method produced better quality histograms with consistently higher nuclei yields, and yields were higher than previously published results for sonication. In three binucleate and three trinucleate species we found that pollen-based genome size estimates differed from leaf tissue estimates by 1·5 % or less when 1C pollen nuclei were used, while estimates from 2C generative nuclei differed from leaf estimates by up to 2·5 %. Conclusions The high success rate, ease of use and wide applicability of the filter bursting method show that this method can facilitate the use of pollen for estimating genome size and dramatically improve unreduced pollen production estimation with flow cytometry. PMID:22875815

Rocket Based Combined Cycle Exchange Inlet Performance Estimation at Supersonic Speeds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murzionak, Aliaksandr

A method to estimate the performance of an exchange inlet for a Rocket Based Combined Cycle engine is developed. This method is to be used for exchange inlet geometry optimization and as such should be able to predict properties that can be used in the design process within a reasonable amount of time to allow multiple configurations to be evaluated. The method is based on a curve fit of the shocks developed around the major components of the inlet using solutions for shocks around sharp cones and 2D estimations of the shocks around wedges with blunt leading edges. The total pressure drop across the estimated shocks as well as the mass flow rate through the exchange inlet are calculated. The estimations for a selected range of free-stream Mach numbers between 1.1 and 7 are compared against numerical finite volume method simulations which were performed using available commercial software (Ansys-CFX). The total pressure difference between the two methods is within 10% for the tested Mach numbers of 5 and below, while for the Mach 7 test case the difference is 30%. The mass flow rate on average differs by less than 5% for all tested cases with the maximum difference not exceeding 10%. The estimation method takes less than 3 seconds on 3.0 GHz single core processor to complete the calculations for a single flight condition as oppose to over 5 days on 8 cores at 2.4 GHz system while using 3D finite volume method simulation with 1.5 million elements mesh. This makes the estimation method suitable for the use with exchange inlet geometry optimization algorithm.

Estimating externalities of biomass fuel cycles, Report 7

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barnthouse, L.W.; Cada, G.F.; Cheng, M.-D.

1998-01-01

This report documents the analysis of the biomass fuel cycle, in which biomass is combusted to produce electricity. The major objectives of this study were: (1) to implement the methodological concepts which were developed in the Background Document (ORNL/RFF 1992) as a means of estimating the external costs and benefits of fuel cycles, and by so doing, to demonstrate their application to the biomass fuel cycle; (2) to develop, given the time and resources, a range of estimates of marginal (i.e., the additional or incremental) damages and benefits associated with selected impact-pathways from a new wood-fired power plant, using amore » representative benchmark technology, at two reference sites in the US; and (3) to assess the state of the information available to support energy decision making and the estimation of externalities, and by so doing, to assist in identifying gaps in knowledge and in setting future research agendas. The demonstration of methods, modeling procedures, and use of scientific information was the most important objective of this study. It provides an illustrative example for those who will, in the future, undertake studies of actual energy options and sites. As in most studies, a more comprehensive analysis could have been completed had budget constraints not been as severe. Particularly affected were the air and water transport modeling, estimation of ecological impacts, and economic valuation. However, the most important objective of the study was to demonstrate methods, as a detailed example for future studies. Thus, having severe budget constraints was appropriate from the standpoint that these studies could also face similar constraints. Consequently, an important result of this study is an indication of what can be done in such studies, rather than the specific numerical estimates themselves.« less

Accounting for length-bias and selection effects in estimating the distribution of menstrual cycle length

PubMed Central

Lum, Kirsten J.; Sundaram, Rajeshwari; Louis, Thomas A.

2015-01-01

Prospective pregnancy studies are a valuable source of longitudinal data on menstrual cycle length. However, care is needed when making inferences of such renewal processes. For example, accounting for the sampling plan is necessary for unbiased estimation of the menstrual cycle length distribution for the study population. If couples can enroll when they learn of the study as opposed to waiting for the start of a new menstrual cycle, then due to length-bias, the enrollment cycle will be stochastically larger than the general run of cycles, a typical property of prevalent cohort studies. Furthermore, the probability of enrollment can depend on the length of time since a woman’s last menstrual period (a backward recurrence time), resulting in selection effects. We focus on accounting for length-bias and selection effects in the likelihood for enrollment menstrual cycle length, using a recursive two-stage approach wherein we first estimate the probability of enrollment as a function of the backward recurrence time and then use it in a likelihood with sampling weights that account for length-bias and selection effects. To broaden the applicability of our methods, we augment our model to incorporate a couple-specific random effect and time-independent covariate. A simulation study quantifies performance for two scenarios of enrollment probability when proper account is taken of sampling plan features. In addition, we estimate the probability of enrollment and the distribution of menstrual cycle length for the study population of the Longitudinal Investigation of Fertility and the Environment Study. PMID:25027273

Improved Estimates of Thermodynamic Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lawson, D. D.

1982-01-01

Techniques refined for estimating heat of vaporization and other parameters from molecular structure. Using parabolic equation with three adjustable parameters, heat of vaporization can be used to estimate boiling point, and vice versa. Boiling points and vapor pressures for some nonpolar liquids were estimated by improved method and compared with previously reported values. Technique for estimating thermodynamic parameters should make it easier for engineers to choose among candidate heat-exchange fluids for thermochemical cycles.

A Life-Cycle Cost Estimating Methodology for NASA-Developed Air Traffic Control Decision Support Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Jianzhong Jay; Datta, Koushik; Landis, Michael R. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This paper describes the development of a life-cycle cost (LCC) estimating methodology for air traffic control Decision Support Tools (DSTs) under development by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), using a combination of parametric, analogy, and expert opinion methods. There is no one standard methodology and technique that is used by NASA or by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for LCC estimation of prospective Decision Support Tools. Some of the frequently used methodologies include bottom-up, analogy, top-down, parametric, expert judgement, and Parkinson's Law. The developed LCC estimating methodology can be visualized as a three-dimensional matrix where the three axes represent coverage, estimation, and timing. This paper focuses on the three characteristics of this methodology that correspond to the three axes.

Gonotrophic cycle and survivorship of Anopheles vestitipennis (Diptera: Culicidae) in two different ecological areas of southern Mexico.

PubMed

Arredondo-Jiménez, J I; Rodríguez, M H; Washino, R K

1998-11-01

The duration of the gonotrophic cycle and survivorship of Anopheles vestitipennis Dyar & Knab was estimated in 2 malarious areas of Chiapas, Mexico: the Lacandon Forest and the Pacific Ocean Coastal Plain. Blood-engorged females held in an outdoor cage required 2.75 d for egg maturation, and 3.75 d for the duration of the gonotrophic cycle. Duration of the gonotrophic cycle also was estimated by parous-nulliparous dynamics for 20 consecutive days and autocorrelation time-series analysis, and by mark-recapture techniques. These methods depicted differences between the Lacandon Forest (3-d cycle) and the Coastal Plain (2-3 d cycles). Daily survival rates were estimated vertically and were generally higher in the Lacandon Forest (0.68) than in the Coastal Plain (0.45-0.58). The probability of mosquitoes surviving the sporogonic cycle was 10-100 times greater in the Lacandon Forest. The pregravid rate was 8.2%, and 29.3% of females with primary follicles beyond Christophers' stage III had traces of red blood in the gut. The 1st statistic indicated that 8.2% of females required > 1 blood meal for initial egg development, the 2nd statistic indicated that 29.3% of females take > 1 blood meal during a gonotrophic cycle. In summary, the enhanced vectorial role of this species is explained partially by high longevity and multiple blood-feeding habits.

Towards Robust Energy Systems Modeling: Examinging Uncertainty in Fossil Fuel-Based Life Cycle Assessment Approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venkatesh, Aranya

Increasing concerns about the environmental impacts of fossil fuels used in the U.S. transportation and electricity sectors have spurred interest in alternate energy sources, such as natural gas and biofuels. Life cycle assessment (LCA) methods can be used to estimate the environmental impacts of incumbent energy sources and potential impact reductions achievable through the use of alternate energy sources. Some recent U.S. climate policies have used the results of LCAs to encourage the use of low carbon fuels to meet future energy demands in the U.S. However, the LCA methods used to estimate potential reductions in environmental impact have some drawbacks. First, the LCAs are predominantly based on deterministic approaches that do not account for any uncertainty inherent in life cycle data and methods. Such methods overstate the accuracy of the point estimate results, which could in turn lead to incorrect and (consequent) expensive decision-making. Second, system boundaries considered by most LCA studies tend to be limited (considered a manifestation of uncertainty in LCA). Although LCAs can estimate the benefits of transitioning to energy systems of lower environmental impact, they may not be able to characterize real world systems perfectly. Improved modeling of energy systems mechanisms can provide more accurate representations of reality and define more likely limits on potential environmental impact reductions. This dissertation quantitatively and qualitatively examines the limitations in LCA studies outlined previously. The first three research chapters address the uncertainty in life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with petroleum-based fuels, natural gas and coal consumed in the U.S. The uncertainty in life cycle GHG emissions from fossil fuels was found to range between 13 and 18% of their respective mean values. For instance, the 90% confidence interval of the life cycle GHG emissions of average natural gas consumed in the U.S was found to range between -8 to 9% (17%) of the mean value of 66 g CO2e/MJ. Results indicate that uncertainty affects the conclusions of comparative life cycle assessments, especially when differences in average environmental impacts between two competing fuels/products are small. In the final two research chapters of this thesis, system boundary limitations in LCA are addressed. Simplified economic dispatch models for are developed to examine changes in regional power plant dispatch that occur when coal power plants are retired and when natural gas prices drop. These models better reflect reality by estimating the order in which existing power plants are dispatched to meet electricity demand based on short-run marginal costs. Results indicate that the reduction in air emissions are lower than suggested by LCA studies, since they generally do not include the complexity of regional electricity grids, predominantly driven by comparative fuel prices. For instance, comparison, this study estimates 7-15% reductions in emissions with low natural gas prices. Although this is a significant reduction in itself, it is still lower than the benefits reported in traditional life cycle comparisons of coal and natural gas-based power (close to 50%), mainly due to the effects of plant dispatch.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Myronakis, M; Cai, W; Dhou, S

Purpose: To determine if 4DCT-based motion modeling and external surrogate motion measured during treatment simulation can enhance prediction of residual tumor motion and duty cycle during treatment delivery. Methods: This experiment was conducted using simultaneously recorded tumor and external surrogate motion acquired over multiple fractions of lung cancer radiotherapy. These breathing traces were combined with the XCAT phantom to simulate CT images. Data from the first day was used to estimate the residual tumor motion and duty cycle both directly from the 4DCT (the current clinical standard), and from external-surrogate based motion modeling. The accuracy of these estimated residual tumormore » motions and duty cycles are evaluated by comparing to the measured internal/external motions from other treatment days. Results: All calculations were done for 25% and 50% duty cycles. The results indicated that duty cycle derived from 4DCT information alone is not enough to accurately predict duty cycles during treatment. Residual tumor motion was determined from the recorded data and compared with the estimated residual tumor motion from 4DCT. Relative differences in residual tumor motion varied from −30% to 55%, suggesting that more information is required to properly predict residual tumor motion. Compared to estimations made from 4DCT, in three out of four patients examined, the 30 seconds of motion modeling data was able to predict the duty cycle with better accuracy than 4DCT. No improvement was observed in prediction of residual tumor motion for this dataset. Conclusion: Motion modeling during simulation has the potential to enhance 4DCT and provide more information about target motion, duty cycles, and delivered dose. Based on these four patients, 30 seconds of motion modeling data produced improve duty cycle estimations but showed no measurable improvement in residual tumor motion prediction. More patient data is needed to verify this Result. I would like to acknowledge funding from MRA, VARIAN Medical Systems, Inc.« less

Improved perturbation method for gadolinia worth calculation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chiang, R.T.; Congdon, S.P.

1986-01-01

Gadolinia is utilized in light water power reactors as burnable poison for reserving excess reactivity. Good gadolinia worth estimation is useful for evaluating fuel bundle designs, core operating strategies, and fuel cycle economics. The authors have developed an improved perturbation method based on exact perturbation theory for gadolinia worth calculations in fuel bundles. The method predicts much more accurate gadolinia worth than the first-order perturbation method (commonly used to estimate nuclide worths) for bundles containing fresh or partly burned gadolinia.

Left ventricular volume estimation in cardiac three-dimensional ultrasound: a semiautomatic border detection approach.

PubMed

van Stralen, Marijn; Bosch, Johan G; Voormolen, Marco M; van Burken, Gerard; Krenning, Boudewijn J; van Geuns, Robert-Jan M; Lancée, Charles T; de Jong, Nico; Reiber, Johan H C

2005-10-01

We propose a semiautomatic endocardial border detection method for three-dimensional (3D) time series of cardiac ultrasound (US) data based on pattern matching and dynamic programming, operating on two-dimensional (2D) slices of the 3D plus time data, for the estimation of full cycle left ventricular volume, with minimal user interaction. The presented method is generally applicable to 3D US data and evaluated on data acquired with the Fast Rotating Ultrasound (FRU-) Transducer, developed by Erasmus Medical Center (Rotterdam, the Netherlands), a conventional phased-array transducer, rotating at very high speed around its image axis. The detection is based on endocardial edge pattern matching using dynamic programming, which is constrained by a 3D plus time shape model. It is applied to an automatically selected subset of 2D images of the original data set, for typically 10 equidistant rotation angles and 16 cardiac phases (160 images). Initialization requires the drawing of four contours per patient manually. We evaluated this method on 14 patients against MRI end-diastole and end-systole volumes. Initialization requires the drawing of four contours per patient manually. We evaluated this method on 14 patients against MRI end-diastolic (ED) and end-systolic (ES) volumes. The semiautomatic border detection approach shows good correlations with MRI ED/ES volumes (r = 0.938) and low interobserver variability (y = 1.005x - 16.7, r = 0.943) over full-cycle volume estimations. It shows a high consistency in tracking the user-defined initial borders over space and time. We show that the ease of the acquisition using the FRU-transducer and the semiautomatic endocardial border detection method together can provide a way to quickly estimate the left ventricular volume over the full cardiac cycle using little user interaction.

BACTERIAL FLUX FROM CHAPARRAL INTO THE ATMOSPHERE IN MID-SUMMER AT A HIGH DESERT LOCATION

EPA Science Inventory

Estimates of the bacterial flux for a daylight cycle were observed at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation, Richland, WA, during June 1992, using a modified Bowen ratio method. he upward daytime bacterial flux was coupled with the solar radiation/sensible heat cycle, but commenced 2 h...

Life Cycle Assessment of Vehicle Lightweighting: Novel Mathematical Methods to Estimate Use-Phase Fuel Consumption.

PubMed

Kim, Hyung Chul; Wallington, Timothy J; Sullivan, John L; Keoleian, Gregory A

2015-08-18

Lightweighting is a key strategy to improve vehicle fuel economy. Assessing the life-cycle benefits of lightweighting requires a quantitative description of the use-phase fuel consumption reduction associated with mass reduction. We present novel methods of estimating mass-induced fuel consumption (MIF) and fuel reduction values (FRVs) from fuel economy and dynamometer test data in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) database. In the past, FRVs have been measured using experimental testing. We demonstrate that FRVs can be mathematically derived from coast down coefficients in the EPA vehicle test database avoiding additional testing. MIF and FRVs calculated for 83 different 2013 MY vehicles are in the ranges 0.22-0.43 and 0.15-0.26 L/(100 km 100 kg), respectively, and increase to 0.27-0.53 L/(100 km 100 kg) with powertrain resizing to retain equivalent vehicle performance. We show how use-phase fuel consumption can be estimated using MIF and FRVs in life cycle assessments (LCAs) of vehicle lightweighting from total vehicle and vehicle component perspectives with, and without, powertrain resizing. The mass-induced fuel consumption model is illustrated by estimating lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emission benefits from lightweighting a grille opening reinforcement component using magnesium or carbon fiber composite for 83 different vehicle models.

Variations in the temperature and circulation of the atmosphere during the 11-year cycle of solar activity derived from the ERA-Interim reanalysis data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruzdev, A. N.

2017-07-01

Using the data of the ERA-Interim reanalysis, we have obtained estimates of changes in temperature, the geopotential and its large-scale zonal harmonics, wind velocity, and potential vorticity in the troposphere and stratosphere of the Northern and Southern hemispheres during the 11-year solar cycle. The estimates have been obtained using the method of multiple linear regression. Specific features of response of the indicated atmospheric parameters to the solar cycle have been revealed in particular regions of the atmosphere for a whole year and depending on the season. The results of the analysis indicate the existence of a reliable statistical relationship of large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the troposphere and stratosphere with the 11-year solar cycle.

Improved Satellite Estimation of Near-Surface Humidity Using Vertical Water Vapor Profile Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomita, H.; Hihara, T.; Kubota, M.

2018-01-01

Near-surface air-specific humidity is a key variable in the estimation of air-sea latent heat flux and evaporation from the ocean surface. An accurate estimation over the global ocean is required for studies on global climate, air-sea interactions, and water cycles. Current remote sensing techniques are problematic and a major source of errors for flux and evaporation. Here we propose a new method to estimate surface humidity using satellite microwave radiometer instruments, based on a new finding about the relationship between multichannel brightness temperatures measured by satellite sensors, surface humidity, and vertical moisture structure. Satellite estimations using the new method were compared with in situ observations to evaluate this method, confirming that it could significantly improve satellite estimations with high impact on satellite estimation of latent heat flux. We recommend the adoption of this method for any satellite microwave radiometer observations.

Estimating Sea Surface Temperature Measurement Methods Using Characteristic Differences in the Diurnal Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carella, G.; Kennedy, J. J.; Berry, D. I.; Hirahara, S.; Merchant, C. J.; Morak-Bozzo, S.; Kent, E. C.

2018-01-01

Lack of reliable observational metadata represents a key barrier to understanding sea surface temperature (SST) measurement biases, a large contributor to uncertainty in the global surface record. We present a method to identify SST measurement practice by comparing the observed SST diurnal cycle from individual ships with a reference from drifting buoys under similar conditions of wind and solar radiation. Compared to existing estimates, we found a larger number of engine room-intake (ERI) reports post-World War II and in the period 1960-1980. Differences in the inferred mixture of observations lead to a systematic warmer shift of the bias adjusted SST anomalies from 1980 compared to previous estimates, while reducing the ensemble spread. Changes in mean field differences between bucket and ERI SST anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere over the period 1955-1995 could be as large as 0.5°C and are not well reproduced by current bias adjustment models.

A new method to detect significant basal body temperature changes during a woman's menstrual cycle.

PubMed

Freundl, Günter; Frank-Herrmann, Petra; Brown, Simon; Blackwell, Leonard

2014-10-01

To compare the results of a computer programme based on the Trigg's tracking system (TTS) identification of the basal body temperature (BBT) shift day from daily records of BBT values (TTS transition day), with the BBT shift day identified from the same records using the Sensiplan(®) symptothermal method of natural family planning. A computer programme was written to display the daily BBT readings for 364 menstrual cycles from 51 women aged 24 to 35 years, obtained from the German Natural Family Planning (NFP) database. The TTS transition day so identified from each record was then compared with the BBT shift day estimated from the same record by the Sensiplan(®) method. Total agreement between the methods was obtained for 81% (294/364) of the cycles and 18% (67) cycles differed by ± 1 day. For the 364 pairs of values distributed among 51 women the medians of the differences between the TTS transition day and Sensiplan(®) initial day of the BBT rise (shift day) were not significantly different (χ(2) = 65.28, df = 50, p = 0.07205). The advantages of the tracking signal algorithm are that in many cases it was possible to identify the BBT shift day on that very day - rather than only some days later - and to estimate the probability that a transition had occurred from the different values of the tracking signal.

Accounting for length-bias and selection effects in estimating the distribution of menstrual cycle length.

PubMed

Lum, Kirsten J; Sundaram, Rajeshwari; Louis, Thomas A

2015-01-01

Prospective pregnancy studies are a valuable source of longitudinal data on menstrual cycle length. However, care is needed when making inferences of such renewal processes. For example, accounting for the sampling plan is necessary for unbiased estimation of the menstrual cycle length distribution for the study population. If couples can enroll when they learn of the study as opposed to waiting for the start of a new menstrual cycle, then due to length-bias, the enrollment cycle will be stochastically larger than the general run of cycles, a typical property of prevalent cohort studies. Furthermore, the probability of enrollment can depend on the length of time since a woman's last menstrual period (a backward recurrence time), resulting in selection effects. We focus on accounting for length-bias and selection effects in the likelihood for enrollment menstrual cycle length, using a recursive two-stage approach wherein we first estimate the probability of enrollment as a function of the backward recurrence time and then use it in a likelihood with sampling weights that account for length-bias and selection effects. To broaden the applicability of our methods, we augment our model to incorporate a couple-specific random effect and time-independent covariate. A simulation study quantifies performance for two scenarios of enrollment probability when proper account is taken of sampling plan features. In addition, we estimate the probability of enrollment and the distribution of menstrual cycle length for the study population of the Longitudinal Investigation of Fertility and the Environment Study. Published by Oxford University Press 2014. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

The Cost of Joint Replacement: Comparing Two Approaches to Evaluating Costs of Total Hip and Knee Arthroplasty.

PubMed

Palsis, John A; Brehmer, Thomas S; Pellegrini, Vincent D; Drew, Jacob M; Sachs, Barton L

2018-02-21

In an era of mandatory bundled payments for total joint replacement, accurate analysis of the cost of procedures is essential for orthopaedic surgeons and their institutions to maintain viable practices. The purpose of this study was to compare traditional accounting and time-driven activity-based costing (TDABC) methods for estimating the total costs of total hip and knee arthroplasty care cycles. We calculated the overall costs of elective primary total hip and total knee replacement care cycles at our academic medical center using traditional and TDABC accounting methods. We compared the methods with respect to the overall costs of hip and knee replacement and the costs for each major cost category. The traditional accounting method resulted in higher cost estimates. The total cost per hip replacement was $22,076 (2014 USD) using traditional accounting and was $12,957 using TDABC. The total cost per knee replacement was $29,488 using traditional accounting and was $16,981 using TDABC. With respect to cost categories, estimates using traditional accounting were greater for hip and knee replacement, respectively, by $3,432 and $5,486 for personnel, by $3,398 and $3,664 for space and equipment, and by $2,289 and $3,357 for indirect costs. Implants and consumables were derived from the actual hospital purchase price; accordingly, both methods produced equivalent results. Substantial cost differences exist between accounting methods. The focus of TDABC only on resources used directly by the patient contrasts with the allocation of all operating costs, including all indirect costs and unused capacity, with traditional accounting. We expect that the true costs of hip and knee replacement care cycles are likely somewhere between estimates derived from traditional accounting methods and TDABC. TDABC offers patient-level granular cost information that better serves in the redesign of care pathways and may lead to more strategic resource-allocation decisions to optimize actual operating margins.

A Synthesis of Solar Cycle Prediction Techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M.; Reichmann, Edwin J.

1999-01-01

A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month-by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides a more accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This combined precursor method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154 plus or minus 21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent on the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude is used to describe the level of solar activity month by month for the next cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146 plus or minus 20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum.

Status of Cycle 23 Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, D. H.

2000-01-01

A number of techniques for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle time scale are identified, described, and tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g,, regression and curve-fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month- by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but provide an estimate only of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides the most accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This precursor method gave a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154+21 for cycle 23. A mathematical function dependent upon the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude then describes the level of solar activity for the complete cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between recent activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast now gives a smoothed sunspot maximum of 140+20 for cycle 23. The success of the geomagnetic precursors in predicting future solar activity suggests that solar magnetic phenomena at latitudes above the sunspot activity belts are linked to solar activity, which occurs many years later in the lower latitudes.

Online estimation of lithium-ion battery capacity using sparse Bayesian learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Chao; Jain, Gaurav; Schmidt, Craig; Strief, Carrie; Sullivan, Melani

2015-09-01

Lithium-ion (Li-ion) rechargeable batteries are used as one of the major energy storage components for implantable medical devices. Reliability of Li-ion batteries used in these devices has been recognized as of high importance from a broad range of stakeholders, including medical device manufacturers, regulatory agencies, patients and physicians. To ensure a Li-ion battery operates reliably, it is important to develop health monitoring techniques that accurately estimate the capacity of the battery throughout its life-time. This paper presents a sparse Bayesian learning method that utilizes the charge voltage and current measurements to estimate the capacity of a Li-ion battery used in an implantable medical device. Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) is employed as a probabilistic kernel regression method to learn the complex dependency of the battery capacity on the characteristic features that are extracted from the charge voltage and current measurements. Owing to the sparsity property of RVM, the proposed method generates a reduced-scale regression model that consumes only a small fraction of the CPU time required by a full-scale model, which makes online capacity estimation computationally efficient. 10 years' continuous cycling data and post-explant cycling data obtained from Li-ion prismatic cells are used to verify the performance of the proposed method.

Fine root heterogeneity by branch order: exploring the discrepancy in root turnover estimates between minirhizotron and carbon isotopic methods

Treesearch

Dali Guo; Harbin Li; Robert J. Mitchell; Han Wenxuan; Joseph J. Hendricks; Timothy J. Fahey; Ronald L. Hendrick

2008-01-01

Fine roots constitute a large and dynamic component of the carbon cycles of terrestrial ecosystems. The reported fivefold discrepancy in turnover estimates between median longevity (ML) from minirhizotrons and mean residence time (MRT) using carbon isotopes may have global consequences.

Position Estimation of an Epicardial Crawling Robot on the Beating Heart by Modeling of Physiological Motion

PubMed Central

Wood, Nathan A.; del Agua, Diego Moral; Zenati, Marco A.; Riviere, Cameron N.

2012-01-01

HeartLander, a small mobile robot designed to provide treatments to the surface of the beating heart, overcomes a major difficulty of minimally invasive cardiac surgery, providing a stable operating platform. This is achieved inherently in the way the robot adheres to and crawls over the surface of the heart. This mode of operation does not require physiological motion compensation to provide this stable environment; however, modeling of physiological motion is advantageous in providing more accurate position estimation as well as synchronization of motion to the physiological cycles. The work presented uses an Extended Kalman Filter framework to estimate parameters of non-stationary Fourier series models of the motion of the heart due to the respiratory and cardiac cycles as well as the position of the robot as it moves over the surface of the heart. The proposed method is demonstrated in the laboratory with HeartLander operating on a physiological motion simulator. Improved performance is demonstrated in comparison to the filtering methods previously used with HeartLander. The use of detected physiological cycle phases to synchronize locomotion of HeartLander is also described. PMID:23066511

Position Estimation of an Epicardial Crawling Robot on the Beating Heart by Modeling of Physiological Motion.

PubMed

Wood, Nathan A; Del Agua, Diego Moral; Zenati, Marco A; Riviere, Cameron N

2011-12-05

HeartLander, a small mobile robot designed to provide treatments to the surface of the beating heart, overcomes a major difficulty of minimally invasive cardiac surgery, providing a stable operating platform. This is achieved inherently in the way the robot adheres to and crawls over the surface of the heart. This mode of operation does not require physiological motion compensation to provide this stable environment; however, modeling of physiological motion is advantageous in providing more accurate position estimation as well as synchronization of motion to the physiological cycles. The work presented uses an Extended Kalman Filter framework to estimate parameters of non-stationary Fourier series models of the motion of the heart due to the respiratory and cardiac cycles as well as the position of the robot as it moves over the surface of the heart. The proposed method is demonstrated in the laboratory with HeartLander operating on a physiological motion simulator. Improved performance is demonstrated in comparison to the filtering methods previously used with HeartLander. The use of detected physiological cycle phases to synchronize locomotion of HeartLander is also described.

ESTIMATING THE HEIGHT OF CMEs ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR SEP EVENT AT THE ONSET OF THE METRIC TYPE II RADIO BURST DURING SOLAR CYCLES 23 AND 24

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mäkelä, P.; Akiyama, S.; Xie, H.

2015-06-10

We studied the coronal mass ejection (CME) height at the onset of 59 metric type II radio bursts associated with major solar energetic particle (SEP) events, excluding ground level enhancements (GLEs), during solar cycles 23 and 24. We calculated CME heights using a simple flare-onset method used by Gopalswamy et al. to estimate CME heights at the metric type II onset for cycle 23 GLEs. We found the mean CME height for non-GLE events (1.72 R{sub ☉}) to be ∼12% greater than that (1.53 R{sub ☉}) for cycle 23 GLEs. The difference could be caused by more impulsive acceleration ofmore » the GLE-associated CMEs. For cycle 24 non-GLE events, we compared the CME heights obtained using the flare-onset method and the three-dimensional spherical-shock fitting method and found the correlation to be good (CC = 0.68). We found the mean CME height for cycle 23 non-GLE events (1.79 R{sub ☉}) to be greater than that for cycle 24 non-GLE events (1.58 R{sub ☉}), but statistical tests do not definitely reject the possibility of coincidence. We suggest that the lower formation height of the shocks during cycle 24 indicates a change in the Alfvén speed profile because solar magnetic fields are weaker and plasma density levels are closer to the surface than usual during cycle 24. We also found that complex type III bursts showing diminution of type III emission in the 7–14 MHz frequency range are more likely associated with events with a CME height at the type II onset above 2 R{sub ☉}, supporting suggestions that the CME/shock structure causes the feature.« less

Separating Autotrophic and Heterotrophic Respiration in Streams and the Importance for Carbon Cycling: a Preliminary Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bozeman, M.; Raymond, P.

2005-05-01

Autotrophic and heterotrophic organisms confer different effects on nutrient cycling, especially on carbon (C). In stream ecosystems, net ecosystem production determines the amount and form of C exported; however any transformation due to different respiratory (R) mechanisms are not separated. These mechanisms highly influence the form and lability of the C transported. To understand the current state of knowledge and estimate the importance of autotrophic versus heterotrophic R, we obtained a range of respiratory rates from the literature and modeled effects of different balances of rates on bulk dissolved inorganic and organic C chemistry. Preliminary results show that a wide range of estimates of autotrophic R exist and that these can effect bulk properties of exported C. While specific effects are highly dependent upon physical structure of the study watershed, we offer that separating R mechanisms provides further insight into ecosystem C cycling. We also propose a method to measure autotrophic and heterotrophic R at the ecosystem scale and obtain watershed-level estimates of the importance of these processes on C cycling.

Forecasting of the electrical actuators condition using stator’s current signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kruglova, T. N.; Yaroshenko, I. V.; Rabotalov, N. N.; Melnikov, M. A.

2017-02-01

This article describes a forecasting method for electrical actuators realized through the combination of Fourier transformation and neural network techniques. The method allows finding the value of diagnostic functions in the iterating operating cycle and the number of operational cycles in time before the BLDC actuator fails. For forecasting of the condition of the actuator, we propose a hierarchical structure of the neural network aiming to reduce the training time of the neural network and improve estimation accuracy.

Estimating Missing Unit Process Data in Life Cycle Assessment Using a Similarity-Based Approach.

PubMed

Hou, Ping; Cai, Jiarui; Qu, Shen; Xu, Ming

2018-05-01

In life cycle assessment (LCA), collecting unit process data from the empirical sources (i.e., meter readings, operation logs/journals) is often costly and time-consuming. We propose a new computational approach to estimate missing unit process data solely relying on limited known data based on a similarity-based link prediction method. The intuition is that similar processes in a unit process network tend to have similar material/energy inputs and waste/emission outputs. We use the ecoinvent 3.1 unit process data sets to test our method in four steps: (1) dividing the data sets into a training set and a test set; (2) randomly removing certain numbers of data in the test set indicated as missing; (3) using similarity-weighted means of various numbers of most similar processes in the training set to estimate the missing data in the test set; and (4) comparing estimated data with the original values to determine the performance of the estimation. The results show that missing data can be accurately estimated when less than 5% data are missing in one process. The estimation performance decreases as the percentage of missing data increases. This study provides a new approach to compile unit process data and demonstrates a promising potential of using computational approaches for LCA data compilation.

Solid rocket motor cost model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harney, A. G.; Raphael, L.; Warren, S.; Yakura, J. K.

1972-01-01

A systematic and standardized procedure for estimating life cycle costs of solid rocket motor booster configurations. The model consists of clearly defined cost categories and appropriate cost equations in which cost is related to program and hardware parameters. Cost estimating relationships are generally based on analogous experience. In this model the experience drawn on is from estimates prepared by the study contractors. Contractors' estimates are derived by means of engineering estimates for some predetermined level of detail of the SRM hardware and program functions of the system life cycle. This method is frequently referred to as bottom-up. A parametric cost analysis is a useful technique when rapid estimates are required. This is particularly true during the planning stages of a system when hardware designs and program definition are conceptual and constantly changing as the selection process, which includes cost comparisons or trade-offs, is performed. The use of cost estimating relationships also facilitates the performance of cost sensitivity studies in which relative and comparable cost comparisons are significant.

Estimation on the First Cycle of the Annual Forest Inventory System: Methods, Preliminary Results, and Observations

Treesearch

Mark H. Hansen; Gary J. Brand; Daniel G. Wendt; Ronald E. McRoberts

2001-01-01

The first year of annual FIA data collection in the North Central region was completed for 1999 in Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, and Missouri. Estimates of timberland area, total growing-stock volume and growing-stock volume per acre are presented. These estimates are based on data from 1 year, collected at the base Federal inventory intensity, a lower intensity sample...

Remote Sensing of Groundwater Storage Changes in Illinois using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Swenson, S. C.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Rodell, M.

2007-01-01

Regional groundwater storage changes in Illinois are estimated from monthly GRACE total water storage change (TWSC) data and in situ measurements of soil moisture for the period 2002-2005. Groundwater storage change estimates are compared to those derived from the soil moisture and available well level data. The seasonal pattern and amplitude of GRACE-estimated groundwater storage changes track those of the in situ measurements reasonably well, although substantial differences exist in month-to-month variations. The seasonal cycle of GRACE TWSC agrees well with observations (correlation coefficient = 0.83), while the seasonal cycle of GRACE-based estimates of groundwater storage changes beneath 2 m depth agrees with observations with a correlation coefficient of 0.63. We conclude that the GRACE-based method of estimating monthly to seasonal groundwater storage changes performs reasonably well at the 200,000 sq km scale of Illinois.

Reduced Order Methods for Prediction of Thermal-Acoustic Fatigue

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Przekop, A.; Rizzi, S. A.

2004-01-01

The goal of this investigation is to assess the quality of high-cycle-fatigue life estimation via a reduced order method, for structures undergoing random nonlinear vibrations in a presence of thermal loading. Modal reduction is performed with several different suites of basis functions. After numerically solving the reduced order system equations of motion, the physical displacement time history is obtained by an inverse transformation and stresses are recovered. Stress ranges obtained through the rainflow counting procedure are used in a linear damage accumulation method to yield fatigue estimates. Fatigue life estimates obtained using various basis functions in the reduced order method are compared with those obtained from numerical simulation in physical degrees-of-freedom.

A Nonlinear Reduced Order Method for Prediction of Acoustic Fatigue

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Przekop, Adam; Rizzi, Stephen A.

2006-01-01

The goal of this investigation is to assess the quality of high-cycle-fatigue life estimation via a reduced order method, for structures undergoing geometrically nonlinear random vibrations. Modal reduction is performed with several different suites of basis functions. After numerically solving the reduced order system equations of motion, the physical displacement time history is obtained by an inverse transformation and stresses are recovered. Stress ranges obtained through the rainflow counting procedure are used in a linear damage accumulation method to yield fatigue estimates. Fatigue life estimates obtained using various basis functions in the reduced order method are compared with those obtained from numerical simulation in physical degrees-of-freedom.

Estimation of Axial Fretting Fatigue Life at Elevated Temperatures Using Critical Distance Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majzoobi, G. H.; Azhdarzadeh, P.

Fretting fatigue life is traditionally estimated by experiment. The objective of this work is to introduce a special approach for estimation of axial fretting fatigue life at elevated temperatures from plain fatigue test based on the critical distance theory. The method uses Fatemi-Socie parameter as a multiaxial criterion to compute the stress multiaxiality on focus path. This method considers only elastic behavior for materials, and two characteristic diagrams are obtained from plain fatigue tests on two U-shaped and V-shaped notched specimens. The results showed reasonable agreement between the predictions by the proposed method and the experiments for ambient temperature. For elevated temperatures, the results indicated that the predicted fretting fatigue life was considerably overestimated in the low cycle fatigue (LCF) regime and underestimated in the high cycle fatigue (HCF) region with respect to experimental measurements. The reason for such discrepancy is believed to be due to the complex behavior of AL 7075-T6, which exhibits at elevated temperatures because of the problems such as aging, oxidation and reduction of strength.

Local homogeneity of cell cycle length in developing mouse cortex

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cai, L.; Hayes, N. L.; Nowakowski, R. S.

1997-01-01

We have measured the amount of variation in the length of the cell cycle for cells in the pseudostratified ventricular epithelium (PVE) of the developing cortex of mice on embryonic day 14. Our measurements were made in three cortical regions (i.e., the neocortex, archicortex, and periarchicortex) using three different methods: the cumulative labeling method (CLM), the percent labeled mitoses (PLM) method, and a comparison of the time needed for the PLM to ascend from 0 to 100% with the time needed for the PLM to descend from 100 to 0%. These 3 different techniques provide different perspectives on the cytokinetic parameters. Theoretically, CLM gives an estimate for a maximum value of the total length of the cell cycle (TC), whereas PLM gives an estimate of a minimum value of TC. The difference between these two estimates indicates that the range for TC is +/-1% of the mean TC for periarchicortex, +/-7% for neocortex, and +/-8% for archicortex. This was confirmed by a lengthening of the PLM descent time in comparison with its ascent time. The sharpness of the transitions and the flatness of the plateau of the PLM curves indicate that 99% of the proliferating cells are within this narrow estimated range for TC; hence, only approximately 1% deviate outside of a relatively restricted range from the average TC of the population. In the context of the possible existence within the cortical PVE of two populations with markedly dissimilar cell cycle kinetics from the mean, one such population must comprise approximately 99% of the total population, and the other, if it exists, is only approximately 1% of the total. This seems to be true for all three cortical regions. The narrow range of TC indicates a homogeneity in the cell cycle length for proliferating cells in three different cortical regions, despite the fact that progenitor cells of different lineages may be present. It further predicts the existence of almost synchronous interkinetic nuclear movements of the proliferating cells in the ventricular zone during early development of the cerebral cortex.

Deterministically estimated fission source distributions for Monte Carlo k-eigenvalue problems

DOE PAGES

Biondo, Elliott D.; Davidson, Gregory G.; Pandya, Tara M.; ...

2018-04-30

The standard Monte Carlo (MC) k-eigenvalue algorithm involves iteratively converging the fission source distribution using a series of potentially time-consuming inactive cycles before quantities of interest can be tallied. One strategy for reducing the computational time requirements of these inactive cycles is the Sourcerer method, in which a deterministic eigenvalue calculation is performed to obtain an improved initial guess for the fission source distribution. This method has been implemented in the Exnihilo software suite within SCALE using the SPNSPN or SNSN solvers in Denovo and the Shift MC code. The efficacy of this method is assessed with different Denovo solutionmore » parameters for a series of typical k-eigenvalue problems including small criticality benchmarks, full-core reactors, and a fuel cask. Here it is found that, in most cases, when a large number of histories per cycle are required to obtain a detailed flux distribution, the Sourcerer method can be used to reduce the computational time requirements of the inactive cycles.« less

Deterministically estimated fission source distributions for Monte Carlo k-eigenvalue problems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Biondo, Elliott D.; Davidson, Gregory G.; Pandya, Tara M.

The standard Monte Carlo (MC) k-eigenvalue algorithm involves iteratively converging the fission source distribution using a series of potentially time-consuming inactive cycles before quantities of interest can be tallied. One strategy for reducing the computational time requirements of these inactive cycles is the Sourcerer method, in which a deterministic eigenvalue calculation is performed to obtain an improved initial guess for the fission source distribution. This method has been implemented in the Exnihilo software suite within SCALE using the SPNSPN or SNSN solvers in Denovo and the Shift MC code. The efficacy of this method is assessed with different Denovo solutionmore » parameters for a series of typical k-eigenvalue problems including small criticality benchmarks, full-core reactors, and a fuel cask. Here it is found that, in most cases, when a large number of histories per cycle are required to obtain a detailed flux distribution, the Sourcerer method can be used to reduce the computational time requirements of the inactive cycles.« less

Genomic selection across multiple breeding cycles in applied bread wheat breeding.

PubMed

Michel, Sebastian; Ametz, Christian; Gungor, Huseyin; Epure, Doru; Grausgruber, Heinrich; Löschenberger, Franziska; Buerstmayr, Hermann

2016-06-01

We evaluated genomic selection across five breeding cycles of bread wheat breeding. Bias of within-cycle cross-validation and methods for improving the prediction accuracy were assessed. The prospect of genomic selection has been frequently shown by cross-validation studies using the same genetic material across multiple environments, but studies investigating genomic selection across multiple breeding cycles in applied bread wheat breeding are lacking. We estimated the prediction accuracy of grain yield, protein content and protein yield of 659 inbred lines across five independent breeding cycles and assessed the bias of within-cycle cross-validation. We investigated the influence of outliers on the prediction accuracy and predicted protein yield by its components traits. A high average heritability was estimated for protein content, followed by grain yield and protein yield. The bias of the prediction accuracy using populations from individual cycles using fivefold cross-validation was accordingly substantial for protein yield (17-712 %) and less pronounced for protein content (8-86 %). Cross-validation using the cycles as folds aimed to avoid this bias and reached a maximum prediction accuracy of [Formula: see text] = 0.51 for protein content, [Formula: see text] = 0.38 for grain yield and [Formula: see text] = 0.16 for protein yield. Dropping outlier cycles increased the prediction accuracy of grain yield to [Formula: see text] = 0.41 as estimated by cross-validation, while dropping outlier environments did not have a significant effect on the prediction accuracy. Independent validation suggests, on the other hand, that careful consideration is necessary before an outlier correction is undertaken, which removes lines from the training population. Predicting protein yield by multiplying genomic estimated breeding values of grain yield and protein content raised the prediction accuracy to [Formula: see text] = 0.19 for this derived trait.

Early Design Energy Analysis Using Building Information Modeling Technology

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-01

building, (a) floor plan and (b) 3D image. ....................................... 50 Figure 28. Comparison of different energy estimates...when they make the biggest impact on building life-cycle costs. Traditionally, most building energy analyses have been conducted late in design, by...complete energy analysis. This method enables project teams to make energy conscious decisions early in design when they impact building life-cycle

The Flight Optimization System Weights Estimation Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wells, Douglas P.; Horvath, Bryce L.; McCullers, Linwood A.

2017-01-01

FLOPS has been the primary aircraft synthesis software used by the Aeronautics Systems Analysis Branch at NASA Langley Research Center. It was created for rapid conceptual aircraft design and advanced technology impact assessments. FLOPS is a single computer program that includes weights estimation, aerodynamics estimation, engine cycle analysis, propulsion data scaling and interpolation, detailed mission performance analysis, takeoff and landing performance analysis, noise footprint estimation, and cost analysis. It is well known as a baseline and common denominator for aircraft design studies. FLOPS is capable of calibrating a model to known aircraft data, making it useful for new aircraft and modifications to existing aircraft. The weight estimation method in FLOPS is known to be of high fidelity for conventional tube with wing aircraft and a substantial amount of effort went into its development. This report serves as a comprehensive documentation of the FLOPS weight estimation method. The development process is presented with the weight estimation process.

Biased estimation of forest log characteristics using intersect diameters

Treesearch

Lisa J. Bate; Torolf R. Torgersen; Michael J. Wisdom; Edward O. Garton

2009-01-01

Logs are an important structural feature of forest ecosystems, and their abundance affects many resources and forest processes, including fire regimes, soil productivity, silviculture, carbon cycling, and wildlife habitat. Consequently, logs are often sampled to estimate their frequency, percent cover, volume, and weight. The line-intersect method (LIM) is one of the...

When bulk density methods matter: Implications for estimating soil organic carbon pools in rocky soils

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Resolving uncertainty in the carbon cycle is paramount to refining climate predictions. Soil organic carbon (SOC) is a major component of terrestrial C pools, and accuracy of SOC estimates are only as good as the measurements and assumptions used to obtain them. Dryland soils account for a substanti...

Parametric CERs (Cost Estimate Relationships) for Replenishment Repair Parts (Selected U.S. Army Helicopters and Combat Vehicles)

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-07-31

Information System (OSMIS). The long-range objective is to develop methods to determine total operating and support (O&S) costs within life-cycle cost...objective was to assess the feasibility of developing cost estimating relationships (CERs) based on data from the Army Operating and Support Management

Usual Dietary Intakes: Food Intakes, U.S. Population, 2007-10

Cancer.gov

We have applied the NCI Method for estimating distributions of usual intake to data from two recent cycles of the NHANES to estimate means and percentiles of the distributions of food intake and the percentage of persons meeting recommendations for a range of sex-age groups in the US population.

Air pollution as a risk factor in health impact assessments of a travel mode shift towards cycling

PubMed Central

Raza, Wasif; Forsberg, Bertil; Johansson, Christer; Sommar, Johan Nilsson

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: Promotion of active commuting provides substantial health and environmental benefits by influencing air pollution, physical activity, accidents, and noise. However, studies evaluating intervention and policies on a mode shift from motorized transport to cycling have estimated health impacts with varying validity and precision. Objective: To review and discuss the estimation of air pollution exposure and its impacts in health impact assessment studies of a shift in transport from cars to bicycles in order to guide future assessments. Methods: A systematic database search of PubMed was done primarily for articles published from January 2000 to May 2016 according to PRISMA guidelines. Results: We identified 18 studies of health impact assessment of change in transport mode. Most studies investigated future hypothetical scenarios of increased cycling. The impact on the general population was estimated using a comparative risk assessment approach in the majority of these studies, whereas some used previously published cost estimates. Air pollution exposure during cycling was estimated based on the ventilation rate, the pollutant concentration, and the trip duration. Most studies employed exposure-response functions from studies comparing background levels of fine particles between cities to estimate the health impacts of local traffic emissions. The effect of air pollution associated with increased cycling contributed small health benefits for the general population, and also only slightly increased risks associated with fine particle exposure among those who shifted to cycling. However, studies calculating health impacts based on exposure-response functions for ozone, black carbon or nitrogen oxides found larger effects attributed to changes in air pollution exposure. Conclusion: A large discrepancy between studies was observed due to different health impact assessment approaches, different assumptions for calculation of inhaled dose and different selection of dose-response functions. This kind of assessments would improve from more holistic approaches using more specific exposure-response functions. PMID:29400262

A "total parameter estimation" method in the varification of distributed hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Qin, D.; Wang, H.

2011-12-01

Conventionally hydrological models are used for runoff or flood forecasting, hence the determination of model parameters are common estimated based on discharge measurements at the catchment outlets. With the advancement in hydrological sciences and computer technology, distributed hydrological models based on the physical mechanism such as SWAT, MIKESHE, and WEP, have gradually become the mainstream models in hydrology sciences. However, the assessments of distributed hydrological models and model parameter determination still rely on runoff and occasionally, groundwater level measurements. It is essential in many countries, including China, to understand the local and regional water cycle: not only do we need to simulate the runoff generation process and for flood forecasting in wet areas, we also need to grasp the water cycle pathways and consumption process of transformation in arid and semi-arid regions for the conservation and integrated water resources management. As distributed hydrological model can simulate physical processes within a catchment, we can get a more realistic representation of the actual water cycle within the simulation model. Runoff is the combined result of various hydrological processes, using runoff for parameter estimation alone is inherits problematic and difficult to assess the accuracy. In particular, in the arid areas, such as the Haihe River Basin in China, runoff accounted for only 17% of the rainfall, and very concentrated during the rainy season from June to August each year. During other months, many of the perennial rivers within the river basin dry up. Thus using single runoff simulation does not fully utilize the distributed hydrological model in arid and semi-arid regions. This paper proposed a "total parameter estimation" method to verify the distributed hydrological models within various water cycle processes, including runoff, evapotranspiration, groundwater, and soil water; and apply it to the Haihe river basin in China. The application results demonstrate that this comprehensive testing method is very useful in the development of a distributed hydrological model and it provides a new way of thinking in hydrological sciences.

Using the Modified Precursor Method to Estimate the Size of Cycle 24

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

2008-01-01

Modified geomagnetic precursor techniques for predicting the size of the following sunspot cycle are developed, where these techniques use the 12-month moving averages of the number of disturbed days (when Ap greater than or equals 25), the Ap index, the aa index, and the aaI index at about 4 yr during the declining portion of the preceding sunspot cycle. For cycle 24, these techniques suggest that its RM will measure about 130 +/- 14, a value outside the consensus prediction interval of the low prediction (90 +/- 10) given by the NOAA Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel. Furthermore, cycle 24 is predicted to be a fast-rising cycle (ASC = 44 +/- 5 months), peaking before April 2012, presuming the official start of cycle 24 in March 2008. Also discussed are the variation of solar cycle lengths and Hale cycle effects, as related to cycles 23 and 24.

Real-Time Parameter Estimation in the Frequency Domain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morelli, Eugene A.

2000-01-01

A method for real-time estimation of parameters in a linear dynamic state-space model was developed and studied. The application is aircraft dynamic model parameter estimation from measured data in flight. Equation error in the frequency domain was used with a recursive Fourier transform for the real-time data analysis. Linear and nonlinear simulation examples and flight test data from the F-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle were used to demonstrate that the technique produces accurate model parameter estimates with appropriate error bounds. Parameter estimates converged in less than one cycle of the dominant dynamic mode, using no a priori information, with control surface inputs measured in flight during ordinary piloted maneuvers. The real-time parameter estimation method has low computational requirements and could be implemented

cloncase: Estimation of sex frequency and effective population size by clonemate resampling in partially clonal organisms.

PubMed

Ali, Sajid; Soubeyrand, Samuel; Gladieux, Pierre; Giraud, Tatiana; Leconte, Marc; Gautier, Angélique; Mboup, Mamadou; Chen, Wanquan; de Vallavieille-Pope, Claude; Enjalbert, Jérôme

2016-07-01

Inferring reproductive and demographic parameters of populations is crucial to our understanding of species ecology and evolutionary potential but can be challenging, especially in partially clonal organisms. Here, we describe a new and accurate method, cloncase, for estimating both the rate of sexual vs. asexual reproduction and the effective population size, based on the frequency of clonemate resampling across generations. Simulations showed that our method provides reliable estimates of sex frequency and effective population size for a wide range of parameters. The cloncase method was applied to Puccinia striiformis f.sp. tritici, a fungal pathogen causing stripe/yellow rust, an important wheat disease. This fungus is highly clonal in Europe but has been suggested to recombine in Asia. Using two temporally spaced samples of P. striiformis f.sp. tritici in China, the estimated sex frequency was 75% (i.e. three-quarter of individuals being sexually derived during the yearly sexual cycle), indicating strong contribution of sexual reproduction to the life cycle of the pathogen in this area. The inferred effective population size of this partially clonal organism (Nc  = 998) was in good agreement with estimates obtained using methods based on temporal variations in allelic frequencies. The cloncase estimator presented herein is the first method allowing accurate inference of both sex frequency and effective population size from population data without knowledge of recombination or mutation rates. cloncase can be applied to population genetic data from any organism with cyclical parthenogenesis and should in particular be very useful for improving our understanding of pest and microbial population biology. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Simulating eroded soil organic carbon with the SWAT-C model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Xuesong

The soil erosion and associated lateral movement of eroded carbon (C) have been identified as a possible mechanism explaining the elusive terrestrial C sink of ca. 1.7-2.6 PgC yr(-1). Here we evaluated the SWAT-C model for simulating long-term soil erosion and associated eroded C yields. Our method couples the CENTURY carbon cycling processes with a Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) to estimate C losses associated with soil erosion. The results show that SWAT-C is able to simulate well long-term average eroded C yields, as well as correctly estimate the relative magnitude of eroded C yields by crop rotations. Wemore » also evaluated three methods of calculating C enrichment ratio in mobilized sediments, and found that errors associated with enrichment ratio estimation represent a significant uncertainty in SWAT-C simulations. Furthermore, we discussed limitations and future development directions for SWAT-C to advance C cycling modeling and assessment.« less

Water Budget Estimation by Assimilating Multiple Observations and Hydrological Modeling Using Constrained Ensemble Kalman Filtering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, M.; Wood, E. F.

2004-05-01

This study explores a method to estimate various components of the water cycle (ET, runoff, land storage, etc.) based on a number of different info sources, including both observations and observation-enhanced model simulations. Different from existing data assimilations, this constrained Kalman filtering approach keeps the water budget perfectly closed while updating the states of the underlying model (VIC model) optimally using observations. Assimilating different data sources in this way has several advantages: (1) physical model is included to make estimation time series smooth, missing-free, and more physically consistent; (2) uncertainties in the model and observations are properly addressed; (3) model is constrained by observation thus to reduce model biases; (4) balance of water is always preserved along the assimilation. Experiments are carried out in Southern Great Plain region where necessary observations have been collected. This method may also be implemented in other applications with physical constraints (e.g. energy cycles) and at different scales.

Analysis of methods for determining high cycle fatigue strength of a material with investigation of titanium-aluminum-vanadium gigacycle fatigue behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollak, Randall D.

Today, aerospace engineers still grapple with the qualitative and quantitative understanding of fatigue behavior in the design and testing of turbine-driven jet engines. The Department of Defense has taken a very active role in addressing this problem with the formation of the National High Cycle Fatigue Science & Technology Program in 1994. The primary goal of this program is to further the understanding of high cycle fatigue (HCF) behavior and develop methods in order to mitigate the negative impact of HCF on aerospace operations. This research supports this program by addressing the fatigue strength testing guidance currently provided by the DoD to engine manufacturers, with the primary goal to investigate current methods and recommend a test strategy to characterize the fatigue strength of a material at a specified number of cycles, such as the 109 design goal specified by MIL-HDBK-1783B, or range of cycles. The research utilized the benefits of numerical simulation to initially investigate the staircase method for use in fatigue strength testing. The staircase method is a commonly used fatigue strength test, but its ability to characterize fatigue strength variability is extremely suspect. A modified staircase approach was developed and shown to significantly reduce bias and scatter in estimates for fatigue strength variance. Experimental validation of this proposed test strategy was accomplished using a dual-phase Ti-6Al-4V alloy. The HCF behavior of a second material with a very different microstructure (beta annealed Ti-6Al-4V) was also investigated. The random fatigue limit (RFL) model, a recently developed analysis tool, was investigated to characterize stress-life behavior but found to have difficulty representing fatigue life curves with sharp transitions. Two alternative models (bilinear and hyperbolic) were developed based on maximum likelihood methods to better characterize the Ti-6Al-4V fatigue life behavior. These models provided a good fit to the experimental data for the dual-phase Ti-6Al-4V and were applied to the beta annealed variant in order to estimate stress-life behavior using a small-sample approach. Based on this research, designers should be better able to make reliable estimates of fatigue strength parameters using small-sample testing.

A generalized model for multi-marker analysis of cell cycle progression in synchrony experiments.

PubMed

Mayhew, Michael B; Robinson, Joshua W; Jung, Boyoun; Haase, Steven B; Hartemink, Alexander J

2011-07-01

To advance understanding of eukaryotic cell division, it is important to observe the process precisely. To this end, researchers monitor changes in dividing cells as they traverse the cell cycle, with the presence or absence of morphological or genetic markers indicating a cell's position in a particular interval of the cell cycle. A wide variety of marker data is available, including information-rich cellular imaging data. However, few formal statistical methods have been developed to use these valuable data sources in estimating how a population of cells progresses through the cell cycle. Furthermore, existing methods are designed to handle only a single binary marker of cell cycle progression at a time. Consequently, they cannot facilitate comparison of experiments involving different sets of markers. Here, we develop a new sampling model to accommodate an arbitrary number of different binary markers that characterize the progression of a population of dividing cells along a branching process. We engineer a strain of Saccharomyces cerevisiae with fluorescently labeled markers of cell cycle progression, and apply our new model to two image datasets we collected from the strain, as well as an independent dataset of different markers. We use our model to estimate the duration of post-cytokinetic attachment between a S.cerevisiae mother and daughter cell. The Java implementation is fast and extensible, and includes a graphical user interface. Our model provides a powerful and flexible cell cycle analysis tool, suitable to any type or combination of binary markers. The software is available from: http://www.cs.duke.edu/~amink/software/cloccs/. michael.mayhew@duke.edu; amink@cs.duke.edu.

Seasonal Cycles of Oceanic Transports in the Eastern Subpolar North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gary, Stefan F.; Cunningham, Stuart A.; Johnson, Clare; Houpert, Loïc.; Holliday, N. Penny; Behrens, Erik; Biastoch, Arne; Böning, Claus W.

2018-02-01

The variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may play a role in sea surface temperature predictions on seasonal to decadal time scales. Therefore, AMOC seasonal cycles are a potential baseline for interpreting predictions. Here we present estimates for the seasonal cycle of transports of volume, temperature, and freshwater associated with the upper limb of the AMOC in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic on the Extended Ellett Line hydrographic section between Scotland and Iceland. Due to weather, ship-based observations are primarily in summer. Recent glider observations during other seasons present an opportunity to investigate the seasonal variability in the upper layer of the AMOC. First, we document a new method to quality control and merge ship, float, and glider hydrographic observations. This method accounts for the different spatial sampling rates of the three platforms. The merged observations are used to compute seasonal cycles of volume, temperature, and freshwater transports in the Rockall Trough. These estimates are similar to the seasonal cycles in two eddy-resolving ocean models. Volume transport appears to be the primary factor modulating other Rockall Trough transports. Finally, we show that the weakest transports occur in summer, consistent with seasonal changes in the regional-scale wind stress curl. Although the seasonal cycle is weak compared to other variability in this region, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in the Rockall Trough, roughly 0.5-1 Sv about a mean of 3.4 Sv, may account for up to 7-14% of the heat flux between Scotland and Greenland.

Land-Energy Nexus: Life Cycle Land Use of Natural Gas-Fired Electricity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heath, G.; Jordaan, S.; Macknick, J.; Mohammadi, E.; Ben-Horin, D.; Urrea, V.

2014-12-01

Comparisons of the land required for different types of energy are challenging due to the fact that upstream land use of fossil fuel technologies is not well characterized. This research focuses on improving estimates of the life cycle land use of natural gas-fired electricity through the novel combination of inventories of the location of natural gas-related infrastructure, satellite imagery analysis and gas production data. Land area per unit generation is calculated as the sum of natural gas life cycle stages divided by the throughput of natural gas, combined with the land use of the power plant divided by the generation of the power plant. Five natural gas life cycle stages are evaluated for their area: production, gathering, processing, transmission and disposal. The power plant stage is characterized by a thermal efficiency ηth, which converts MegaJoules (MJ) to kilowatt hours (kWh). We focus on seven counties in the Barnett shale region in Texas that represent over 90% of total Barnett Shale gas production. In addition to assessing the gathering and transmission pipeline network, approximately 500 sites are evaluated from the five life cycle stages plus power plants. For instance, assuming a 50 foot right-of-way for transmission pipelines, this part of the Barnett pipeline network occupies nearly 26,000 acres. Site, road and water components to total area are categorized. Methods are developed to scale up sampled results for each component type to the full population of sites within the Barnett. Uncertainty and variability are charaterized. Well-level production data are examined by integrating commercial datasets with advanced methods for quantifying estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) for wells, then summed to estimate natural gas produced in an entire play. Wells that are spatially coincident are merged using ArcGIS. All other sites are normalized by an estimate of gas throughput. Prior land use estimates are used to validate the satellite imagery analysis. Results of this research will provide a step towards better quantifying the land footprint of energy production activities and a methodologically consistent baseline from which more robust comparisons with alternative energy choices can be made.

Estimating the effect of gestational age on test performance of combined first-trimester screening for Down syndrome: a preliminary study.

PubMed

van Heesch, Peter N; Struijk, Pieter C; Laudy, Jaqueline A M; Steegers, Eric A P; Wildschut, Hajo I J

2010-05-01

To establish how different methods of estimating gestational age (GA) affect reliability of first-trimester screening for Down syndrome. Retrospective single-center study of 100 women with a viable singleton pregnancy, who had first-trimester screening. We calculated multiples of the median (MoM) for maternal-serum free beta human chorionic gonadotropin (free beta-hCG) and pregnancy associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A), derived from either last menstrual period (LMP) or ultrasound-dating scans. In women with a regular cycle, LMP-derived estimates of GA were two days longer (range -11 to 18), than crown-rump length (CRL)-derived estimates of GA whereas this discrepancy was more pronounced in women who reported to have an irregular cycle, i.e., six days (range -7 to 32). Except for PAPP-A in the regular-cycle group, all differences were significant. Consequently, risk estimates are affected by the mode of estimating GA. In fact, LMP-based estimates revealed ten "screen-positive" cases compared to five "screen-positive" cases where GA was derived from dating-scans. Provided fixed values for nuchal translucency are applied, dating-scans reduce the number of screen-positive findings on the basis of biochemical screening. We recommend implementation of guidelines for Down syndrome screening based on CRL-dependent rather than LMP-dependent parameters of GA.

Life cycle assessment of lignocellulosic ethanol: a review of key factors and methods affecting calculated GHG emissions and energy use.

PubMed

Gerbrandt, Kelsey; Chu, Pei Lin; Simmonds, Allison; Mullins, Kimberley A; MacLean, Heather L; Griffin, W Michael; Saville, Bradley A

2016-04-01

Lignocellulosic ethanol has potential for lower life cycle greenhouse gas emissions compared to gasoline and conventional grain-based ethanol. Ethanol production 'pathways' need to meet economic and environmental goals. Numerous life cycle assessments of lignocellulosic ethanol have been published over the last 15 years, but gaps remain in understanding life cycle performance due to insufficient data, and model and methodological issues. We highlight key aspects of these issues, drawing on literature and a case study of corn stover ethanol. Challenges include the complexity of feedstock/ecosystems and market-mediated aspects and the short history of commercial lignocellulosic ethanol facilities, which collectively have led to uncertainty in GHG emissions estimates, and to debates on LCA methods and the role of uncertainty in decision making. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DATA ASSIMILATION APPROACH FOR FORECAST OF SOLAR ACTIVITY CYCLES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kitiashvili, Irina N., E-mail: irina.n.kitiashvili@nasa.gov

Numerous attempts to predict future solar cycles are mostly based on empirical relations derived from observations of previous cycles, and they yield a wide range of predicted strengths and durations of the cycles. Results obtained with current dynamo models also deviate strongly from each other, thus raising questions about criteria to quantify the reliability of such predictions. The primary difficulties in modeling future solar activity are shortcomings of both the dynamo models and observations that do not allow us to determine the current and past states of the global solar magnetic structure and its dynamics. Data assimilation is a relativelymore » new approach to develop physics-based predictions and estimate their uncertainties in situations where the physical properties of a system are not well-known. This paper presents an application of the ensemble Kalman filter method for modeling and prediction of solar cycles through use of a low-order nonlinear dynamo model that includes the essential physics and can describe general properties of the sunspot cycles. Despite the simplicity of this model, the data assimilation approach provides reasonable estimates for the strengths of future solar cycles. In particular, the prediction of Cycle 24 calculated and published in 2008 is so far holding up quite well. In this paper, I will present my first attempt to predict Cycle 25 using the data assimilation approach, and discuss the uncertainties of that prediction.« less

Validating a new methodology for strain estimation from cardiac cine MRI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elnakib, Ahmed; Beache, Garth M.; Gimel'farb, Georgy; Inanc, Tamer; El-Baz, Ayman

2013-10-01

This paper focuses on validating a novel framework for estimating the functional strain from cine cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMRI). The framework consists of three processing steps. First, the left ventricle (LV) wall borders are segmented using a level-set based deformable model. Second, the points on the wall borders are tracked during the cardiac cycle based on solving the Laplace equation between the LV edges. Finally, the circumferential and radial strains are estimated at the inner, mid-wall, and outer borders of the LV wall. The proposed framework is validated using synthetic phantoms of the material strains that account for the physiological features and the LV response during the cardiac cycle. Experimental results on simulated phantom images confirm the accuracy and robustness of our method.

Automatic treatment of the variance estimation bias in TRIPOLI-4 criticality calculations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dumonteil, E.; Malvagi, F.

2012-07-01

The central limit (CLT) theorem States conditions under which the mean of a sufficiently large number of independent random variables, each with finite mean and variance, will be approximately normally distributed. The use of Monte Carlo transport codes, such as Tripoli4, relies on those conditions. While these are verified in protection applications (the cycles provide independent measurements of fluxes and related quantities), the hypothesis of independent estimates/cycles is broken in criticality mode. Indeed the power iteration technique used in this mode couples a generation to its progeny. Often, after what is called 'source convergence' this coupling almost disappears (the solutionmore » is closed to equilibrium) but for loosely coupled systems, such as for PWR or large nuclear cores, the equilibrium is never found, or at least may take time to reach, and the variance estimation such as allowed by the CLT is under-evaluated. In this paper we first propose, by the mean of two different methods, to evaluate the typical correlation length, as measured in cycles number, and then use this information to diagnose correlation problems and to provide an improved variance estimation. Those two methods are based on Fourier spectral decomposition and on the lag k autocorrelation calculation. A theoretical modeling of the autocorrelation function, based on Gauss-Markov stochastic processes, will also be presented. Tests will be performed with Tripoli4 on a PWR pin cell. (authors)« less

A new method for estimating the turbulent heat flux at the bottom of the daily mixed layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Imawaki, Shiro; Niiler, Pearn P.; Gautier, Catherine H.; Knox, Robert A.; Halpern, David

1988-01-01

Temperature data in the mixed layer and net solar irradiance data at the sea surface are used to estimate the vertical turbulent heat flux at the bottom of the daily mixed layer. The method is applied to data obtained in the eastern tropical Pacific, where the daily cycle in the temperature field is confined to the upper 10-25 m. Equatorial turbulence measurements indicate that the turbulent heat flux is much greater during nighttime than daytime.

Contraceptive efficacy of the personal hormone monitoring system Persona.

PubMed

Trussell, J

1999-07-01

This is a commentary on the contraceptive effectiveness of the personal hormone-monitoring system Persona; it points out the various errors committed in computing method pregnancy rates. The modifications presented by Bonnar et al. on the incorrect procedure for computing method pregnancy rates are criticized as erroneous because the denominator includes cycles in which there is no risk of a method pregnancy according to the authors' algorithm for classifying pregnancy in an imperfect-use cycle. It is also claimed that the new exercise is a more complicated and less accurate way of computing for pregnancy rates by comparison with the simpler alternative. Since this new algorithm, used in the Persona system, is based on flawed logic, the annual risk of pregnancy is actually higher than the estimated 6% among women using Persona and having intercourse in each cycle except on red days.

Life Cycle Assessment and Costing Methods for Device Procurement: Comparing Reusable and Single-Use Disposable Laryngoscopes.

PubMed

Sherman, Jodi D; Raibley, Lewis A; Eckelman, Matthew J

2018-01-09

Traditional medical device procurement criteria include efficacy and safety, ease of use and handling, and procurement costs. However, little information is available about life cycle environmental impacts of the production, use, and disposal of medical devices, or about costs incurred after purchase. Reusable and disposable laryngoscopes are of current interest to anesthesiologists. Facing mounting pressure to quickly meet or exceed conflicting infection prevention guidelines and oversight body recommendations, many institutions may be electively switching to single-use disposable (SUD) rigid laryngoscopes or overcleaning reusables, potentially increasing both costs and waste generation. This study provides quantitative comparisons of environmental impacts and total cost of ownership among laryngoscope options, which can aid procurement decision making to benefit facilities and public health. We describe cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment (LCA) and life cycle costing (LCC) methods and apply these to reusable and SUD metal and plastic laryngoscope handles and tongue blade alternatives at Yale-New Haven Hospital (YNHH). The US Environmental Protection Agency's Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and other environmental Impacts (TRACI) life cycle impact assessment method was used to model environmental impacts of greenhouse gases and other pollutant emissions. The SUD plastic handle generates an estimated 16-18 times more life cycle carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2-eq) than traditional low-level disinfection of the reusable steel handle. The SUD plastic tongue blade generates an estimated 5-6 times more CO2-eq than the reusable steel blade treated with high-level disinfection. SUD metal components generated much higher emissions than all alternatives. Both the SUD handle and SUD blade increased life cycle costs compared to the various reusable cleaning scenarios at YNHH. When extrapolated over 1 year (60,000 intubations), estimated costs increased between $495,000 and $604,000 for SUD handles and between $180,000 and $265,000 for SUD blades, compared to reusables, depending on cleaning scenario and assuming 4000 (rated) uses. Considering device attrition, reusable handles would be more economical than SUDs if they last through 4-5 uses, and reusable blades 5-7 uses, before loss. LCA and LCC are feasible methods to ease interpretation of environmental impacts and facility costs when weighing device procurement options. While management practices vary between institutions, all standard methods of cleaning were evaluated and sensitivity analyses performed so that results are widely applicable. For YNHH, the reusable options presented a considerable cost advantage, in addition to offering a better option environmentally. Avoiding overcleaning reusable laryngoscope handles and blades is desirable from an environmental perspective. Costs may vary between facilities, and LCC methodology demonstrates the importance of time-motion labor analysis when comparing reusable and disposable device options.

Reference breast temperature: proposal of an equation

PubMed Central

de Souza, Gladis Aparecida Galindo Reisemberger; Brioschi, Marcos Leal; Vargas, José Viriato Coelho; Morais, Keli Cristiane Correia; Dalmaso, Carlos; Neves, Eduardo Borba

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective To develop an equation to estimate the breast reference temperature according to the variation of room and core body temperatures. Methods Four asymptomatic women were evaluated for three consecutive menstrual cycles. Using thermography, the temperature of breasts and eyes was measured as indirect reference of core body and room temperatures. To analyze the thermal behavior of the breasts during the cycle, the core body and room temperatures were normalized by means of a mathematical equation. Results We performed 180 observations and the core temperature had the highest correlation with the breast temperature, followed by room temperature. The proposed prediction model could explain 45.3% of the breast temperature variation, with variable room temperature variable; it can be accepted as a way to estimate the reference breast temperature at different room temperatures. Conclusion The average breast temperature in healthy women had a direct relation with the core and room temperature and can be estimated mathematically. It is suggested that an equation could be used in clinical practice to estimate the normal breast reference temperature in young women, regardless of the day of the cycle, therefore assisting in evaluation of anatomical studies. PMID:26761549

The Spatial Footprint of Natural Gas-Fired Electricity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordaan, S. M.; Heath, G.; Macknick, J.; Mohammadi, E.; Ben-Horin, D.; Urrea, V.; Marceau, D.

2015-12-01

Consistent comparisons of the amount of land required for different electricity generation technologies are challenging because land use associated with fossil fuel acquisition and delivery has not been well characterized or empirically grounded. This research focuses on improving estimates of the life cycle land use of natural gas-fired electricity (m2/MWh generated) through the novel combination of inventories of natural gas-related infrastructure, satellite imagery analysis and gas production estimates. We focus on seven counties that represent 98% of the total gas production in the Barnett Shale (Texas), evaluating over 500 sites across five life cycle stages (gas production, gathering, processing, transmission, and power generation as well as produced water disposal). We find that a large fraction of total life cycle land use is related to gathering (midstream) infrastructure, particularly pipelines; access roads related to all stages also contribute a large life cycle share. Results were sensitive to several inputs, including well lifetime, pipeline right of way, number of wells per site, variability of heat rate for electricity generation, and facility lifetime. Through this work, we have demonstrated a novel, highly-resolved and empirical method for estimating life cycle land use from natural gas infrastructure in an important production region. When replicated for other gas production regions and other fuels, the results can enable more empirically-grounded and robust comparisons of the land footprint of alternative energy choices.

Bevacizumab in Treatment of High-Risk Ovarian Cancer—A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

PubMed Central

Herzog, Thomas J.; Hu, Lilian; Monk, Bradley J.; Kiet, Tuyen; Blansit, Kevin; Kapp, Daniel S.; Yu, Xinhua

2014-01-01

Objective. The objective of this study was to evaluate a cost-effectiveness strategy of bevacizumab in a subset of high-risk advanced ovarian cancer patients with survival benefit. Methods. A subset analysis of the International Collaboration on Ovarian Neoplasms 7 trial showed that additions of bevacizumab (B) and maintenance bevacizumab (mB) to paclitaxel (P) and carboplatin (C) improved the overall survival (OS) of high-risk advanced cancer patients. Actual and estimated costs of treatment were determined from Medicare payment. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per life-year saved was established. Results. The estimated cost of PC is $535 per cycle; PCB + mB (7.5 mg/kg) is $3,760 per cycle for the first 6 cycles and then $3,225 per cycle for 12 mB cycles. Of 465 high-risk stage IIIC (>1 cm residual) or stage IV patients, the previously reported OS after PC was 28.8 months versus 36.6 months in those who underwent PCB + mB. With an estimated 8-month improvement in OS, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of B was $167,771 per life-year saved. Conclusion. In this clinically relevant subset of women with high-risk advanced ovarian cancer with overall survival benefit after bevacizumab, our economic model suggests that the incremental cost of bevacizumab was approximately $170,000. PMID:24721817

Lodgepole pine bole wood density 1 and 11 years after felling in central Montana

Treesearch

Duncan C. Lutes; Colin C. Hardy

2013-01-01

Estimates of large dead and down woody material biomass are used for evaluating ecological processes and making ecological assessments, such as for nutrient cycling, wildlife habitat, fire effects, and climate change science. Many methods are used to assess the abundance (volume) of woody material, which ultimately require an estimate of wood density to convert volume...

Analysis of Cellular DNA Content by Flow Cytometry.

PubMed

Darzynkiewicz, Zbigniew; Huang, Xuan; Zhao, Hong

2017-10-02

Cellular DNA content can be measured by flow cytometry with the aim of : (1) revealing cell distribution within the major phases of the cell cycle, (2) estimating frequency of apoptotic cells with fractional DNA content, and/or (3) disclosing DNA ploidy of the measured cell population. In this unit, simple and universally applicable methods for staining fixed cells are presented, as are methods that utilize detergents and/or proteolytic treatment to permeabilize cells and make DNA accessible to fluorochrome. Additionally, supravital cell staining with Hoechst 33342, which is primarily used for sorting live cells based on DNA-content differences for their subsequent culturing, is described. Also presented are methods for staining cell nuclei isolated from paraffin-embedded tissues. Available algorithms are listed for deconvolution of DNA-content-frequency histograms to estimate percentage of cells in major phases of the cell cycle and frequency of apoptotic cells with fractional DNA content. © 2017 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley and Sons, Inc.

Analysis of Cellular DNA Content by Flow Cytometry.

PubMed

Darzynkiewicz, Zbigniew; Huang, Xuan; Zhao, Hong

2017-11-01

Cellular DNA content can be measured by flow cytometry with the aim of : (1) revealing cell distribution within the major phases of the cell cycle, (2) estimating frequency of apoptotic cells with fractional DNA content, and/or (3) disclosing DNA ploidy of the measured cell population. In this unit, simple and universally applicable methods for staining fixed cells are presented, as are methods that utilize detergents and/or proteolytic treatment to permeabilize cells and make DNA accessible to fluorochrome. Additionally, supravital cell staining with Hoechst 33342, which is primarily used for sorting live cells based on DNA-content differences for their subsequent culturing, is described. Also presented are methods for staining cell nuclei isolated from paraffin-embedded tissues. Available algorithms are listed for deconvolution of DNA-content-frequency histograms to estimate percentage of cells in major phases of the cell cycle and frequency of apoptotic cells with fractional DNA content. © 2017 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley and Sons, Inc.

Bayesian Parameter Estimation for Heavy-Duty Vehicles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, Eric; Konan, Arnaud; Duran, Adam

2017-03-28

Accurate vehicle parameters are valuable for design, modeling, and reporting. Estimating vehicle parameters can be a very time-consuming process requiring tightly-controlled experimentation. This work describes a method to estimate vehicle parameters such as mass, coefficient of drag/frontal area, and rolling resistance using data logged during standard vehicle operation. The method uses Monte Carlo to generate parameter sets which is fed to a variant of the road load equation. Modeled road load is then compared to measured load to evaluate the probability of the parameter set. Acceptance of a proposed parameter set is determined using the probability ratio to the currentmore » state, so that the chain history will give a distribution of parameter sets. Compared to a single value, a distribution of possible values provides information on the quality of estimates and the range of possible parameter values. The method is demonstrated by estimating dynamometer parameters. Results confirm the method's ability to estimate reasonable parameter sets, and indicates an opportunity to increase the certainty of estimates through careful selection or generation of the test drive cycle.« less

A generalized model for multi-marker analysis of cell cycle progression in synchrony experiments

PubMed Central

Mayhew, Michael B.; Robinson, Joshua W.; Jung, Boyoun; Haase, Steven B.; Hartemink, Alexander J.

2011-01-01

Motivation: To advance understanding of eukaryotic cell division, it is important to observe the process precisely. To this end, researchers monitor changes in dividing cells as they traverse the cell cycle, with the presence or absence of morphological or genetic markers indicating a cell's position in a particular interval of the cell cycle. A wide variety of marker data is available, including information-rich cellular imaging data. However, few formal statistical methods have been developed to use these valuable data sources in estimating how a population of cells progresses through the cell cycle. Furthermore, existing methods are designed to handle only a single binary marker of cell cycle progression at a time. Consequently, they cannot facilitate comparison of experiments involving different sets of markers. Results: Here, we develop a new sampling model to accommodate an arbitrary number of different binary markers that characterize the progression of a population of dividing cells along a branching process. We engineer a strain of Saccharomyces cerevisiae with fluorescently labeled markers of cell cycle progression, and apply our new model to two image datasets we collected from the strain, as well as an independent dataset of different markers. We use our model to estimate the duration of post-cytokinetic attachment between a S.cerevisiae mother and daughter cell. The Java implementation is fast and extensible, and includes a graphical user interface. Our model provides a powerful and flexible cell cycle analysis tool, suitable to any type or combination of binary markers. Availability: The software is available from: http://www.cs.duke.edu/~amink/software/cloccs/. Contact: michael.mayhew@duke.edu; amink@cs.duke.edu PMID:21685084

Simplified model of mean double step (MDS) in human body movement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dusza, Jacek J.; Wawrzyniak, Zbigniew M.; Mugarra González, C. Fernando

In this paper we present a simplified and useful model of the human body movement based on the full gait cycle description, called the Mean Double Step (MDS). It enables the parameterization and simplification of the human movement. Furthermore it allows a description of the gait cycle by providing standardized estimators to transform the gait cycle into a periodical movement process. Moreover the method of simplifying the MDS model and its compression are demonstrated. The simplification is achieved by reducing the number of bars of the spectrum and I or by reducing the number of samples describing the MDS both in terms of reducing their computational burden and their resources for the data storage. Our MDS model, which is applicable to the gait cycle method for examining patients, is non-invasive and provides the additional advantage of featuring a functional characterization of the relative or absolute movement of any part of the body.

Uncertainty quantification metrics for whole product life cycle cost estimates in aerospace innovation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwabe, O.; Shehab, E.; Erkoyuncu, J.

2015-08-01

The lack of defensible methods for quantifying cost estimate uncertainty over the whole product life cycle of aerospace innovations such as propulsion systems or airframes poses a significant challenge to the creation of accurate and defensible cost estimates. Based on the axiomatic definition of uncertainty as the actual prediction error of the cost estimate, this paper provides a comprehensive overview of metrics used for the uncertainty quantification of cost estimates based on a literature review, an evaluation of publicly funded projects such as part of the CORDIS or Horizon 2020 programs, and an analysis of established approaches used by organizations such NASA, the U.S. Department of Defence, the ESA, and various commercial companies. The metrics are categorized based on their foundational character (foundations), their use in practice (state-of-practice), their availability for practice (state-of-art) and those suggested for future exploration (state-of-future). Insights gained were that a variety of uncertainty quantification metrics exist whose suitability depends on the volatility of available relevant information, as defined by technical and cost readiness level, and the number of whole product life cycle phases the estimate is intended to be valid for. Information volatility and number of whole product life cycle phases can hereby be considered as defining multi-dimensional probability fields admitting various uncertainty quantification metric families with identifiable thresholds for transitioning between them. The key research gaps identified were the lacking guidance grounded in theory for the selection of uncertainty quantification metrics and lacking practical alternatives to metrics based on the Central Limit Theorem. An innovative uncertainty quantification framework consisting of; a set-theory based typology, a data library, a classification system, and a corresponding input-output model are put forward to address this research gap as the basis for future work in this field.

A method of computer modelling the lithium-ion batteries aging process based on the experimental characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czerepicki, A.; Koniak, M.

2017-06-01

The paper presents a method of modelling the processes of aging lithium-ion batteries, its implementation as a computer application and results for battery state estimation. Authors use previously developed behavioural battery model, which was built using battery operating characteristics obtained from the experiment. This model was implemented in the form of a computer program using a database to store battery characteristics. Batteries aging process is a new extended functionality of the model. Algorithm of computer simulation uses a real measurements of battery capacity as a function of the battery charge and discharge cycles number. Simulation allows to take into account the incomplete cycles of charge or discharge battery, which are characteristic for transport powered by electricity. The developed model was used to simulate the battery state estimation for different load profiles, obtained by measuring the movement of the selected means of transport.

Methods and Costs to Achieve Ultra Reliable Life Support

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry W.

2012-01-01

A published Mars mission is used to explore the methods and costs to achieve ultra reliable life support. The Mars mission and its recycling life support design are described. The life support systems were made triply redundant, implying that each individual system will have fairly good reliability. Ultra reliable life support is needed for Mars and other long, distant missions. Current systems apparently have insufficient reliability. The life cycle cost of the Mars life support system is estimated. Reliability can be increased by improving the intrinsic system reliability, adding spare parts, or by providing technically diverse redundant systems. The costs of these approaches are estimated. Adding spares is least costly but may be defeated by common cause failures. Using two technically diverse systems is effective but doubles the life cycle cost. Achieving ultra reliability is worth its high cost because the penalty for failure is very high.

Utilizing Crowdsourced Data for Studies of Cycling and Air Pollution Exposure: A Case Study Using Strava Data.

PubMed

Sun, Yeran; Mobasheri, Amin

2017-03-08

With the development of information and communications technology, user-generated content and crowdsourced data are playing a large role in studies of transport and public health. Recently, Strava, a popular website and mobile app dedicated to tracking athletic activity (cycling and running), began offering a data service called Strava Metro, designed to help transportation researchers and urban planners to improve infrastructure for cyclists and pedestrians. Strava Metro data has the potential to promote studies of cycling and health by indicating where commuting and non-commuting cycling activities are at a large spatial scale (street level and intersection level). The assessment of spatially varying effects of air pollution during active travel (cycling or walking) might benefit from Strava Metro data, as a variation in air pollution levels within a city would be expected. In this paper, to explore the potential of Strava Metro data in research of active travel and health, we investigate spatial patterns of non-commuting cycling activities and associations between cycling purpose (commuting and non-commuting) and air pollution exposure at a large scale. Additionally, we attempt to estimate the number of non-commuting cycling trips according to environmental characteristics that may help identify cycling behavior. Researchers who are undertaking studies relating to cycling purpose could benefit from this approach in their use of cycling trip data sets that lack trip purpose. We use the Strava Metro Nodes data from Glasgow, United Kingdom in an empirical study. Empirical results reveal some findings that (1) when compared with commuting cycling activities, non-commuting cycling activities are more likely to be located in outskirts of the city; (2) spatially speaking, cyclists riding for recreation and other purposes are more likely to be exposed to relatively low levels of air pollution than cyclists riding for commuting; and (3) the method for estimating of the number of non-commuting cycling activities works well in this study. The results highlight: (1) a need for policymakers to consider how to improve cycling infrastructure and road safety in outskirts of cities; and (2) a possible way of estimating the number of non-commuting cycling activities when the trip purpose of cycling data is unknown.

Utilizing Crowdsourced Data for Studies of Cycling and Air Pollution Exposure: A Case Study Using Strava Data

PubMed Central

Sun, Yeran; Mobasheri, Amin

2017-01-01

With the development of information and communications technology, user-generated content and crowdsourced data are playing a large role in studies of transport and public health. Recently, Strava, a popular website and mobile app dedicated to tracking athletic activity (cycling and running), began offering a data service called Strava Metro, designed to help transportation researchers and urban planners to improve infrastructure for cyclists and pedestrians. Strava Metro data has the potential to promote studies of cycling and health by indicating where commuting and non-commuting cycling activities are at a large spatial scale (street level and intersection level). The assessment of spatially varying effects of air pollution during active travel (cycling or walking) might benefit from Strava Metro data, as a variation in air pollution levels within a city would be expected. In this paper, to explore the potential of Strava Metro data in research of active travel and health, we investigate spatial patterns of non-commuting cycling activities and associations between cycling purpose (commuting and non-commuting) and air pollution exposure at a large scale. Additionally, we attempt to estimate the number of non-commuting cycling trips according to environmental characteristics that may help identify cycling behavior. Researchers who are undertaking studies relating to cycling purpose could benefit from this approach in their use of cycling trip data sets that lack trip purpose. We use the Strava Metro Nodes data from Glasgow, United Kingdom in an empirical study. Empirical results reveal some findings that (1) when compared with commuting cycling activities, non-commuting cycling activities are more likely to be located in outskirts of the city; (2) spatially speaking, cyclists riding for recreation and other purposes are more likely to be exposed to relatively low levels of air pollution than cyclists riding for commuting; and (3) the method for estimating of the number of non-commuting cycling activities works well in this study. The results highlight: (1) a need for policymakers to consider how to improve cycling infrastructure and road safety in outskirts of cities; and (2) a possible way of estimating the number of non-commuting cycling activities when the trip purpose of cycling data is unknown. PMID:28282865

New charging strategy for lithium-ion batteries based on the integration of Taguchi method and state of charge estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vo, Thanh Tu; Chen, Xiaopeng; Shen, Weixiang; Kapoor, Ajay

2015-01-01

In this paper, a new charging strategy of lithium-polymer batteries (LiPBs) has been proposed based on the integration of Taguchi method (TM) and state of charge estimation. The TM is applied to search an optimal charging current pattern. An adaptive switching gain sliding mode observer (ASGSMO) is adopted to estimate the SOC which controls and terminates the charging process. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed charging strategy can successfully charge the same types of LiPBs with different capacities and cycle life. The proposed charging strategy also provides much shorter charging time, narrower temperature variation and slightly higher energy efficiency than the equivalent constant current constant voltage charging method.

Regional Variability and Uncertainty of Electric Vehicle Life Cycle CO₂ Emissions across the United States.

PubMed

Tamayao, Mili-Ann M; Michalek, Jeremy J; Hendrickson, Chris; Azevedo, Inês M L

2015-07-21

We characterize regionally specific life cycle CO2 emissions per mile traveled for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) across the United States under alternative assumptions for regional electricity emission factors, regional boundaries, and charging schemes. We find that estimates based on marginal vs average grid emission factors differ by as much as 50% (using National Electricity Reliability Commission (NERC) regional boundaries). Use of state boundaries versus NERC region boundaries results in estimates that differ by as much as 120% for the same location (using average emission factors). We argue that consumption-based marginal emission factors are conceptually appropriate for evaluating the emissions implications of policies that increase electric vehicle sales or use in a region. We also examine generation-based marginal emission factors to assess robustness. Using these two estimates of NERC region marginal emission factors, we find the following: (1) delayed charging (i.e., starting at midnight) leads to higher emissions in most cases due largely to increased coal in the marginal generation mix at night; (2) the Chevrolet Volt has higher expected life cycle emissions than the Toyota Prius hybrid electric vehicle (the most efficient U.S. gasoline vehicle) across the U.S. in nearly all scenarios; (3) the Nissan Leaf BEV has lower life cycle emissions than the Prius in the western U.S. and in Texas, but the Prius has lower emissions in the northern Midwest regardless of assumed charging scheme and marginal emissions estimation method; (4) in other regions the lowest emitting vehicle depends on charge timing and emission factor estimation assumptions.

The impact of inter-annual variability of annual cycle on long-term persistence of surface air temperature in long historical records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Qimin; Nian, Da; Fu, Zuntao

2018-02-01

Previous studies in the literature show that the annual cycle of surface air temperature (SAT) is changing in both amplitude and phase, and the SAT departures from the annual cycle are long-term correlated. However, the classical definition of temperature anomalies is based on the assumption that the annual cycle is constant, which contradicts the fact of changing annual cycle. How to quantify the impact of the changing annual cycle on the long-term correlation of temperature anomaly variability still remains open. In this paper, a recently developed data adaptive analysis tool, the nonlinear mode decomposition (NMD), is used to extract and remove time-varying annual cycle to reach the new defined temperature anomalies in which time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been considered. By means of detrended fluctuation analysis, the impact induced by inter-annual variability from the time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been quantified on the estimation of long-term correlation of long historical temperature anomalies in Europe. The results show that the classical climatology annual cycle is supposed to lack inter-annual fluctuation which will lead to a maximum artificial deviation centering around 600 days. This maximum artificial deviation is crucial to defining the scaling range and estimating the long-term persistence exponent accurately. Selecting different scaling range could lead to an overestimation or underestimation of the long-term persistence exponent. By using NMD method to extract the inter-annual fluctuations of annual cycle, this artificial crossover can be weakened to extend a wider scaling range with fewer uncertainties.

Estimation of sweat rates during cycling exercise by means of the closed chamber condenser technology.

PubMed

Clarys, P; Clijsen, R; Barel, A O; Schouteden, R; van Olst, B; Aerenhouts, D

2017-02-01

Knowledge of local sweating patterns is of importance in occupational and exercise physiology settings. The recently developed closed chamber condenser technology (Biox Aquaflux ® ) allows the measurement of evaporative skin water loss with a greater measurement capacity (up to 1325 g/h/m 2 ) compared to traditional evaporimeters. The aim of this study was to evaluate the applicability of the Biox Aquaflux ® to estimate sweat production during exercise. Fourteen healthy subjects performed a 20-min cycle ergometer trial at respectively 55% heart rate (HR reserve and 75% HR reserve . Sweat production was estimated by measuring body weight before and after exercise, by calculating the amount of sweat collected in a patch, and by measuring the water flux (in g/h/m 2 ) with the Biox Aquaflux ® instrument. The Biox Aquaflux ® instrument allowed the follow up of sweat kinetics at both intensities. Correlations between the measurement methods were all significant for the 75% HR reserve trial (with r ranging from 0.68 to 0.76) whilst for the 55% HR reserve a significant relation was detected between the patch method and the Biox Aquaflux ® only (with r ranging from 0.41 to 0.79). The Biox Aquaflux ® instrument is a practical and direct method for the estimation of local sweat rates under field conditions. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Accounting for the Effect of Earth's Rotation in Magnetotelluric Inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riegert, D. L.; Thomson, D. J.

2017-12-01

The study of geomagnetism has been documented as far back as 1722 when the watchmaker G. Graham constructed a more sensitive compass and showed that the variations in geomagnetic direction varied with an irregular daily pattern. Increased interest in geomagnetism in geomagnetism began at the end of the 19th century (Lamb, Schuster, Chapman, and Price). The Magnetotelluric Method was first introduced in the 1950's (Cagniard and Tikhonov), and, at its core, is simply a regression problem. The result of this method is a transfer function estimate which describes the earth's response to magnetic field variations. This estimate can then be used to infer the earth's subsurface structure; useful for applications such as natural resource exploration. The statistical problem of estimating a transfer function between geomagnetic and induced current measurements has evolved since the 1950's due to a variety of problems: non-stationarity, outliers, and violation of Gaussian assumptions. To address some of these issues, robust regression methods (Chave and Thomson, 2004) and the remote reference method (Gambel, 1979) have been proposed and used. The current method seems to provide reasonable estimates, but still requires a large amount of data. Using the multitaper method of spectral analysis (Thomson, 1982), taking long (greater than 4 months) blocks of geomagnetic data, and concentrating on frequencies below 1000 microhertz to avoid ultraviolet effects, one finds that:1) the cross-spectra are dominated by many offset frequencies including plus and minus 1 and 2 cycles per day;2) the coherence at these offset frequencies is often stronger than at zero offset;3) there are strong couplings from the "quasi two-day" cycle;4) frequencines are usually not symmetric;5) the spectra are dominated by the normal modes of the Sun. This talk will discuss the method of incorporating these observations into the transfer function estimation model, some of the difficulties that arose, their solutions, and current results.

NEWS Climatology Project: The State of the Water Cycle at Continental to Global Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodell, Matthew; LEcuyer, Tristan; Beaudoing, Hiroko Kato; Olson, Bill

2011-01-01

NASA's Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) program fosters collaborative research towards improved quantification and prediction of water and energy cycle consequences of climate change. In order to measure change, it is first necessary to describe current conditions. The goal of the NEWS Water and Energy Cycle Climatology project is to develop "state of the global water cycle" and "state of the global energy cycle" assessments based on data from modern ground and space based observing systems and data integrating models. The project is a multiinstitutional collaboration with more than 20 active contributors. This presentation will describe results of the first stage of the water budget analysis, whose goal was to characterize the current state of the water cycle on mean monthly, continental scales. We examine our success in closing the water budget within the expected uncertainty range and the effects of forcing budget closure as a method for refining individual flux estimates.

Immunohistochemical estimation of cell cycle phase in laryngeal neoplasia

PubMed Central

Chatrath, P; Scott, I S; Morris, L S; Davies, R J; Bird, K; Vowler, S L; Coleman, N

2006-01-01

We previously developed an immunohistochemical method for estimating cell cycle state and phase in tissue samples, including biopsies that are too small for flow cytometry. We have used our technique to examine whether primary abnormalities of the cell cycle exist in laryngeal neoplasia. Antibodies against the markers of cell cycle entry, minichromosome maintenance protein-2 (Mcm-2) and Ki67, and putative markers of cell cycle phase, cyclin D1 (G1-phase), cyclin A (S-phase), cyclin B1 (G2-phase) and phosphohistone H3 (Mitosis) were applied to paraffin-embedded sections of normal larynx (n=8), laryngeal dysplasia (n=10) and laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (n=10). Cells expressing each marker were determined as a percentage of total cells, termed the labelling index (LI), and as a percentage of Mcm-2-positive cells, termed the labelling fraction (LF). The frequency of coexpression of each putative phase marker was investigated by confocal microscopy. There was a correlation between Mcm-2 and Ki67 LIs (ρ=0.93) but Mcm-2 LIs were consistently higher. All cells expressing a phase marker coexpressed Mcm-2, whereas Ki67 was not expressed in a proportion of these cells. The putative phase markers showed little coexpression. Labelling index values increased on progression from normal larynx through laryngeal dysplasia to squamous cell carcinoma for Mcm-2 (P=0.001), Ki67 (P=0.0002), cyclin D1 (P=0.015), cyclin A (P=0.0001) and cyclin B1 (P=0.0004). There was no evidence of an increase in the LF for any phase marker. Immunohistochemistry can be used to estimate cell cycle state and phase in laryngeal biopsies. Our data argues against primary cell cycle phase abnormalities in laryngeal neoplasia. PMID:16832409

Cycling Power Outputs Predict Functional Threshold Power And Maximum Oxygen Uptake.

PubMed

Denham, Joshua; Scott-Hamilton, John; Hagstrom, Amanda D; Gray, Adrian J

2017-09-11

Functional threshold power (FTP) has emerged as a correlate of lactate threshold and is commonly assessed by recreational and professional cyclists for tailored exercise programing. To identify whether results from traditional aerobic and anaerobic cycling tests could predict FTP and V˙ O2max, we analysed the association between estimated FTP, maximum oxygen uptake (V˙ O2max [mlkgmin]) and power outputs obtained from a maximal cycle ergometry cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET) and a 30-s Wingate test in a heterogeneous cohort of cycle-trained and untrained individuals (N=40, mean±SD; age: 32.6±10.6 y; relative V˙ O2max: 46.8±9.1 mlkgmin). The accuracy and sensitivity of the prediction equations was also assessed in young men (N=11) before and after a 6-wk sprint interval training intervention.Moderate to strong positive correlations were observed between FTP, relative V˙ O2max and power outputs achieved during incremental and 30-s Wingate cycling tests (r=.39-.965, all P<.05). While maximum power achieved during incremental cycle testing (Pmax) and relative V˙ O2max were predictors of FTP (r =.93), age and FTP (Wkg) estimated relative V˙ O2max (r=.80). Our findings confirm that FTP predominantly relies on aerobic metabolism and indicate both prediction models are sensitive enough to detect meaningful exercise-induced changes in FTP and V˙ O2max. Thus, coaches should consider limiting the time and load demands placed on athletes by conducting a maximal cycle ergometry CPET to estimate FTP. Additionally, a 20-min FTP test is a convenient method to assess V˙ O2max and is particularly relevant for exercise professionals without access to expensive CPET equipment.

Using Data Assimilation Methods of Prediction of Solar Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kitiashvili, Irina N.; Collins, Nancy S.

2017-01-01

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

A computationally efficient approach for isolating satellite phase fractional cycle biases based on Kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Guorui; Mayer, Michael; Heck, Bernhard; Sui, Lifen; Cong, Mingri

2017-04-01

Integer ambiguity resolution (AR) can significantly shorten the convergence time and improve the accuracy of Precise Point Positioning (PPP). Phase fractional cycle biases (FCB) originating from satellites destroy the integer nature of carrier phase ambiguities. To isolate the satellite FCB, observations from a global reference network are required. Firstly, float ambiguities containing FCBs are obtained by PPP processing. Secondly, the least squares method (LSM) is adopted to recover FCBs from all the float ambiguities. Finally, the estimated FCB products can be applied by the user to achieve PPP-AR. During the estimation of FCB, the LSM step can be very time-consuming, considering the large number of observations from hundreds of stations and thousands of epochs. In addition, iterations are required to deal with the one-cycle inconsistency among observations. Since the integer ambiguities are derived by directly rounding float ambiguities, the one-cycle inconsistency arises whenever the fractional parts of float ambiguities exceed the rounding boundary (e.g., 0.5 and -0.5). The iterations of LSM and the large number of observations require a long time to finish the estimation. Consequently, only a sparse global network containing a limited number of stations was processed in former research. In this paper, we propose to isolate the FCB based on a Kalman filter. The large number of observations is handled epoch-by-epoch, which significantly reduces the dimension of the involved matrix and accelerates the computation. In addition, it is also suitable for real-time applications. As for the one-cycle inconsistency, a pre-elimination method is developed to avoid the iteration of the whole process. According to the analysis of the derived satellite FCB products, we find that both wide-lane (WL) and narrow-lane (NL) FCB are very stable over time (e.g., WL FCB over several days rsp. NL FCB over tens of minutes). The stability implies that the satellite FCB can be removed by previous estimation. After subtraction of the satellite FCB, the receiver FCB can be determined. Theoretically, the receiver FCBs derived from different satellite observations should be the same for a single station. Thereby, the one-cycle inconsistency among satellites can be detected and eliminated by adjusting the corresponding receiver FCB. Here, stations can be handled individually to obtain "clean" FCB observations. In an experiment, 24 h observations from 200 stations are processed to estimate GPS FCB. The process finishes in one hour using a personal computer. The estimated WL FCB has a good consistency with existing WL FCB products (e.g., CNES, WHU-SGG). All differences are within ± 0.1 cycles, which indicates the correctness of the proposed approach. For NL FCB, all differences are within ± 0.2 cycles. Concerning the NL wavelength (10.7 cm), the slightly worse NL FCB may be ascribed to different PPP processing strategies. The state-based approach of the Kalman filter also allows for a more realistic modeling of stochastic parameters, which will be investigated in future research.

THE EQUIVALENCE OF AGE IN ANIMALS

PubMed Central

Brody, Samuel; Ragsdale, Arthur C.

1922-01-01

1. A method of plotting growth curves is presented which is considered more useful than the usual method in bringing out a number of important phenomena such as the equivalence of age in different animals, difference in the shape and duration of corresponding growth cycles in different animals, and also in determinating the age of maxima without resorting to complicated mathematical computations. 2. It is suggested that after the third cycle is past the conceptional age of the maximum of the third cycle may be taken as the age of reference for estimating the equivalent physiological ages in different animals. Before the age of the third cycle, the maxima of the second and first cycles are most conveniently used as points of reference. 3. It is shown that the product of the conceptional age of the maximum of the third cycle by 13, gives a value which is, with the possible exception of man, very near to the normal duration of life of animals under the most favorable conditions of life. In other words, the equivalent physiological ages in different animals bear an approximately constant linear relation to the duration of their growth periods. 4. Attention is called to certain differences in the shape and duration of the corresponding growth cycles in different animals and of the effect of sex on these cycles. PMID:19871989

Endurance Enhancement and High Speed Set/Reset of 50 nm Generation HfO2 Based Resistive Random Access Memory Cell by Intelligent Set/Reset Pulse Shape Optimization and Verify Scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higuchi, Kazuhide; Miyaji, Kousuke; Johguchi, Koh; Takeuchi, Ken

2012-02-01

This paper proposes a verify-programming method for the resistive random access memory (ReRAM) cell which achieves a 50-times higher endurance and a fast set and reset compared with the conventional method. The proposed verify-programming method uses the incremental pulse width with turnback (IPWWT) for the reset and the incremental voltage with turnback (IVWT) for the set. With the combination of IPWWT reset and IVWT set, the endurance-cycle increases from 48 ×103 to 2444 ×103 cycles. Furthermore, the measured data retention-time after 20 ×103 set/reset cycles is estimated to be 10 years. Additionally, the filamentary based physical model is proposed to explain the set/reset failure mechanism with various set/reset pulse shapes. The reset pulse width and set voltage correspond to the width and length of the conductive-filament, respectively. Consequently, since the proposed IPWWT and IVWT recover set and reset failures of ReRAM cells, the endurance-cycles are improved.

Nonlinear data assimilation: towards a prediction of the solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svedin, Andreas

The solar cycle is the cyclic variation of solar activity, with a span of 9-14 years. The prediction of the solar cycle is an important and unsolved problem with implications for communications, aviation and other aspects of our high-tech society. Our interest is model-based prediction, and we present a self-consistent procedure for parameter estimation and model state estimation, even when only one of several model variables can be observed. Data assimilation is the art of comparing, combining and transferring observed data into a mathematical model or computer simulation. We use the 3DVAR methodology, based on the notion of least squares, to present an implementation of a traditional data assimilation. Using the Shadowing Filter — a recently developed method for nonlinear data assimilation — we outline a path towards model based prediction of the solar cycle. To achieve this end we solve a number of methodological challenges related to unobserved variables. We also provide a new framework for interpretation that can guide future predictions of the Sun and other astrophysical objects.

Groundwater Evapotranspiration from Diurnal Water Table Fluctuation: a Modified White Based Method Using Drainable and Fillable Porosity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acharya, S.; Mylavarapu, R.; Jawitz, J. W.

2012-12-01

In shallow unconfined aquifers, the water table usually shows a distinct diurnal fluctuation pattern corresponding to the twenty-four hour solar radiation cycle. This diurnal water table fluctuation (DWTF) signal can be used to estimate the groundwater evapotranspiration (ETg) by vegetation, a method known as the White [1932] method. Water table fluctuations in shallow phreatic aquifers is controlled by two distinct storage parameters, drainable porosity (or specific yield) and the fillable porosity. Yet, it is implicitly assumed in most studies that these two parameters are equal, unless hysteresis effect is considered. The White based method available in the literature is also based on a single drainable porosity parameter to estimate the ETg. In this study, we present a modification of the White based method to estimate ETg from DWTF using separate drainable (λd) and fillable porosity (λf) parameters. Separate analytical expressions based on successive steady state moisture profiles are used to estimate λd and λf, instead of the commonly employed hydrostatic moisture profile approach. The modified method is then applied to estimate ETg using the DWTF data observed in a field in northeast Florida and the results are compared with ET estimations from the standard Penman-Monteith equation. It is found that the modified method resulted in significantly better estimates of ETg than the previously available method that used only a single, hydrostatic-moisture-profile based λd. Furthermore, the modified method is also used to estimate ETg even during rainfall events which produced significantly better estimates of ETg as compared to the single λd parameter method.

An Ejector Air Intake Design Method for a Novel Rocket-Based Combined-Cycle Rocket Nozzle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waung, Timothy S.

Rocket-based combined-cycle (RBCC) vehicles have the potential to reduce launch costs through the use of several different air breathing engine cycles, which reduce fuel consumption. The rocket-ejector cycle, in which air is entrained into an ejector section by the rocket exhaust, is used at flight speeds below Mach 2. This thesis develops a design method for an air intake geometry around a novel RBCC rocket nozzle design for the rocket-ejector engine cycle. This design method consists of a geometry creation step in which a three-dimensional intake geometry is generated, and a simple flow analysis step which predicts the air intake mass flow rate. The air intake geometry is created using the rocket nozzle geometry and eight primary input parameters. The input parameters are selected to give the user significant control over the air intake shape. The flow analysis step uses an inviscid panel method and an integral boundary layer method to estimate the air mass flow rate through the intake geometry. Intake mass flow rate is used as a performance metric since it directly affects the amount of thrust a rocket-ejector can produce. The design method results for the air intake operating at several different points along the subsonic portion of the Ariane 4 flight profile are found to under predict mass flow rate by up to 8.6% when compared to three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics simulations for the same air intake.

Plot intensity and cycle-length effects on growth and removals estimates from forest inventories

Treesearch

Paul C. Van Deusen; Francis A. Roesch

2015-01-01

Continuous forest inventory planners can allocate the budget to more plots per acre or a shorter remeasurement cycle. A higher plot intensity benefits small area estimation and allows for more precision in current status estimates. Shorter cycles may provide better estimates of growth, removals and mortality. On a fixed budget, the planner can't have both greater...

Methods of Economic Valuation of The Health Risks Associated with Nanomaterials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shalhevet, S.; Haruvy, N.

The worldwide market for nanomaterials is growing rapidly, but relatively little is still known about the potential risks associated with these materials. The potential health hazards associated with exposure to nanomaterials may lead in the future to increased health costs as well as increased economic costs to the companies involved, as has happened in the past in the case of asbestos. Therefore, it is important to make an initial estimate of the potential costs associated with these health hazards, and to prepare ahead with appropriate health insurance for individuals and financial insurance for companies. While several studies have examined the environmental and health hazards of different nanomaterials by performing life cycle impact assessments, so far these studies have concentrated on the cost of production, and did not estimate the economic impact of the health hazards. This paper discusses methods of evaluating the economic impact of potential health hazards on the public. The proposed method is based on using life cycle impact assessment studies of nanomaterials to estimate the DALYs (Disability Adjusted Life Years) associated with the increased probability of these health hazards. The economic valuation of DALY's can be carried out based on the income lost and the costs of medical treatment. The total expected increase in cost depends on the increase in the statistical probability of each disease.

Calculating length of gestation from the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology Clinic Outcome Reporting System (SART CORS) database versus vital records may alter reported rates of prematurity.

PubMed

Stern, Judy E; Kotelchuck, Milton; Luke, Barbara; Declercq, Eugene; Cabral, Howard; Diop, Hafsatou

2014-05-01

To compare length of gestation after assisted reproductive technology (ART) as calculated by three methods from the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology Clinic Outcome Reporting System (SART CORS) and vital records (birth and fetal death) in the Massachusetts Pregnancy to Early Life Longitudinal Data System (PELL). Historical cohort study. Database linkage analysis. Live or stillborn deliveries. None. ART deliveries were linked to live birth or fetal death certificates. Length of gestation in 7,171 deliveries from fresh autologous ART cycles (2004-2008) was calculated and compared with that of SART CORS with the use of methods: M1 = outcome date - cycle start date; M2 = outcome date - transfer date + 17 days; and M3 = outcome date - transfer date + 14 days + day of transfer. Generalized estimating equation models were used to compare methods. Singleton and multiple deliveries were included. Overall prematurity (delivery <37 weeks) varied by method of calculation: M1 29.1%; M2 25.6%; M3 25.2%; and PELL 27.2%. The SART methods, M1-M3, varied from those of PELL by ≥ 3 days in >45% of deliveries and by more than 1 week in >22% of deliveries. Each method differed from each other. Estimates of preterm birth in ART vary depending on source of data and method of calculation. Some estimates may overestimate preterm birth rates for ART conceptions. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Robust Method to Detect Zero Velocity for Improved 3D Personal Navigation Using Inertial Sensors

PubMed Central

Xu, Zhengyi; Wei, Jianming; Zhang, Bo; Yang, Weijun

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a robust zero velocity (ZV) detector algorithm to accurately calculate stationary periods in a gait cycle. The proposed algorithm adopts an effective gait cycle segmentation method and introduces a Bayesian network (BN) model based on the measurements of inertial sensors and kinesiology knowledge to infer the ZV period. During the detected ZV period, an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) is used to estimate the error states and calibrate the position error. The experiments reveal that the removal rate of ZV false detections by the proposed method increases 80% compared with traditional method at high walking speed. Furthermore, based on the detected ZV, the Personal Inertial Navigation System (PINS) algorithm aided by EKF performs better, especially in the altitude aspect. PMID:25831086

Molecular system identification for enzyme directed evolution and design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Xiangying; Chakrabarti, Raj

2017-09-01

The rational design of chemical catalysts requires methods for the measurement of free energy differences in the catalytic mechanism for any given catalyst Hamiltonian. The scope of experimental learning algorithms that can be applied to catalyst design would also be expanded by the availability of such methods. Methods for catalyst characterization typically either estimate apparent kinetic parameters that do not necessarily correspond to free energy differences in the catalytic mechanism or measure individual free energy differences that are not sufficient for establishing the relationship between the potential energy surface and catalytic activity. Moreover, in order to enhance the duty cycle of catalyst design, statistically efficient methods for the estimation of the complete set of free energy differences relevant to the catalytic activity based on high-throughput measurements are preferred. In this paper, we present a theoretical and algorithmic system identification framework for the optimal estimation of free energy differences in solution phase catalysts, with a focus on one- and two-substrate enzymes. This framework, which can be automated using programmable logic, prescribes a choice of feasible experimental measurements and manipulated input variables that identify the complete set of free energy differences relevant to the catalytic activity and minimize the uncertainty in these free energy estimates for each successive Hamiltonian design. The framework also employs decision-theoretic logic to determine when model reduction can be applied to improve the duty cycle of high-throughput catalyst design. Automation of the algorithm using fluidic control systems is proposed, and applications of the framework to the problem of enzyme design are discussed.

A Method for Improving Temporal and Spatial Resolution of Carbon Dioxide Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregg, J. S.; Andres, R. J.

2003-12-01

Using United States data, a method is developed to estimate the monthly consumption of solid, liquid and gaseous fossil fuels for each state in the union. This technique employs monthly sales data to estimate the relative monthly proportions of the total annual national fossil fuel use. These proportions are then used to estimate the total monthly carbon dioxide emissions for each state. To assess the success of this technique, the results from this method are compared with the data obtained from other independent methods. To determine the temporal success of the method, the resulting national time series is compared to the model produced by Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) and the current model being developed by T. J. Blasing and C. Broniak at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The University of North Dakota (UND) method fits well temporally with the results of the CDIAC and current ORNL research. To determine the success of the spatial component, the individual state results are compared to the annual state totals calculated by ORNL. Using ordinary least squares regression, the annual state totals of this method are plotted against the ORNL data. This allows a direct comparison of estimates in the form of ordered pairs against a one-to-one ideal correspondence line, and allows for easy detection of outliers in the results obtained by this estimation method. Analyzing the residuals of the linear regression model for each type of fuel permits an improved understanding of the strengths and shortcomings of the spatial component of this estimation technique. Spatially, the model is successful when compared to the current ORNL research. The primary advantages of this method are its ease of implementation and universal applicability. In general, this technique compares favorably to more labor-intensive methods that rely on more detailed data. The more detailed data is generally not available for most countries in the world. The methodology used here will be applied to other nations in the world to better understand their sub-annual cycle and sub-national spatial distribution of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel consumption. Better understanding of the cycle will lead to better models used for predicting and responding to global environmental changes currently observed and anticipated.

Discharge estimation from H-ADCP measurements in a tidal river subject to sidewall effects and a mobile bed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sassi, M. G.; Hoitink, A. J. F.; Vermeulen, B.; Hidayat, null

2011-06-01

Horizontal acoustic Doppler current profilers (H-ADCPs) can be employed to estimate river discharge based on water level measurements and flow velocity array data across a river transect. A new method is presented that accounts for the dip in velocity near the water surface, which is caused by sidewall effects that decrease with the width to depth ratio of a channel. A boundary layer model is introduced to convert single-depth velocity data from the H-ADCP to specific discharge. The parameters of the model include the local roughness length and a dip correction factor, which accounts for the sidewall effects. A regression model is employed to translate specific discharge to total discharge. The method was tested in the River Mahakam, representing a large river of complex bathymetry, where part of the flow is intrinsically three-dimensional and discharge rates exceed 8000 m3 s-1. Results from five moving boat ADCP campaigns covering separate semidiurnal tidal cycles are presented, three of which are used for calibration purposes, whereas the remaining two served for validation of the method. The dip correction factor showed a significant correlation with distance to the wall and bears a strong relation to secondary currents. The sidewall effects appeared to remain relatively constant throughout the tidal cycles under study. Bed roughness length is estimated at periods of maximum velocity, showing more variation at subtidal than at intratidal time scales. Intratidal variations were particularly obvious during bidirectional flow conditions, which occurred only during conditions of low river discharge. The new method was shown to outperform the widely used index velocity method by systematically reducing the relative error in the discharge estimates.

An intelligent detection method for high-field asymmetric waveform ion mobility spectrometry.

PubMed

Li, Yue; Yu, Jianwen; Ruan, Zhiming; Chen, Chilai; Chen, Ran; Wang, Han; Liu, Youjiang; Wang, Xiaozhi; Li, Shan

2018-04-01

In conventional high-field asymmetric waveform ion mobility spectrometry signal acquisition, multi-cycle detection is time consuming and limits somewhat the technique's scope for rapid field detection. In this study, a novel intelligent detection approach has been developed in which a threshold was set on the relative error of α parameters, which can eliminate unnecessary time spent on detection. In this method, two full-spectrum scans were made in advance to obtain the estimated compensation voltage at different dispersion voltages, resulting in a narrowing down of the whole scan area to just the peak area(s) of interest. This intelligent detection method can reduce the detection time to 5-10% of that of the original full-spectrum scan in a single cycle.

Performance Analysis of Hybrid Electric Vehicle over Different Driving Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panday, Aishwarya; Bansal, Hari Om

2017-02-01

Article aims to find the nature and response of a hybrid vehicle on various standard driving cycles. Road profile parameters play an important role in determining the fuel efficiency. Typical parameters of road profile can be reduced to a useful smaller set using principal component analysis and independent component analysis. Resultant data set obtained after size reduction may result in more appropriate and important parameter cluster. With reduced parameter set fuel economies over various driving cycles, are ranked using TOPSIS and VIKOR multi-criteria decision making methods. The ranking trend is then compared with the fuel economies achieved after driving the vehicle over respective roads. Control strategy responsible for power split is optimized using genetic algorithm. 1RC battery model and modified SOC estimation method are considered for the simulation and improved results compared with the default are obtained.

Dual-cycle dielectrophoretic collection rates for probing the dielectric properties of nanoparticles

PubMed Central

Bakewell, David J; Holmes, David

2013-01-01

A new DEP spectroscopy method and supporting theoretical model is developed to systematically quantify the dielectric properties of nanoparticles using continuously pulsed DEP collection rates. Initial DEP collection rates, that are dependent on the nanoparticle dielectric properties, are an attractive alternative to the crossover frequency method for determining dielectric properties. The new method introduces dual-cycle amplitude modulated and frequency-switched DEP (dual-cycle DEP) where the first collection rate with a fixed frequency acts as a control, and the second collection rate frequency is switched to a chosen value, such that, it can effectively probe the dielectric properties of the nanoparticles. The application of the control means that measurement variation between DEP collection experiments is reduced so that the frequency-switched probe collection is more effective. A mathematical model of the dual-cycle method is developed that simulates the temporal dynamics of the dual-cycle DEP nanoparticle collection system. A new statistical method is also developed that enables systematic bivariate fitting of the multifrequency DEP collection rates to the Clausius–Mossotti function, and is instrumental for determining dielectric properties. A Monte-Carlo simulation validates that collection rates improve estimation of the dielectric properties, compared with the crossover method, by exploiting a larger number of independent samples. Experiments using 200 nm diameter latex nanospheres suspended in 0.2 mS/m KCl buffer yield a nanoparticle conductivity of 26 mS/m that lies within 8% of the expected value. The results show that the dual-frequency method has considerable promise particularly for automated DEP investigations and associated technologies. PMID:23172363

Experience in estimating neutron poison worths

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chiang, R.T.; Congdon, S.P.

1989-01-01

Gadolinia, {sup 135}Xe, {sup 149}Sm, control rod, and soluble boron are five neutron poisons that may appear in light water reactor assemblies. Reliable neutron poison worth estimation is useful for evaluating core operating strategies, fuel cycle economics, and reactor safety design. Based on physical presence, neutron poisons can be divided into two categories: local poisons and global poisons. Gadolinia and control rod are local poisons, and {sup 135}Xe, {sup 149}Sm, and soluble boron are global poisons. The first-order perturbation method is commonly used to estimate nuclide worths in fuel assemblies. It is well known, however, that the first-order perturbation methodmore » was developed for small perturbations, such as the perturbation due to weak absorbers, and that neutron poisons are not weak absorbers. The authors have developed an improved method to replace the first-order perturbation method, which yields very poor results, for estimating local poison worths. It has also been shown that the first-order perturbation method seems adequate to estimate worths for global poisons caused by flux compensation.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nephew, E.A.; Abbatiello, L.A.; Ballou, M.L.

The basic concept of the Annual Cycle Energy System (ACES) - an integrated system for supplying space heating, hot water, and air conditioning to a building - and the theory underlying its design and operation are described. Practical procedures for designing an ACES for a single-family residence, together with recommended guidelines for the construction and installation of system components, are presented. Methods are discussed for estimating the life-cycle cost, component sizes, and annual energy consumption of the system for residential applications in different climatic regions of the US.

Criterion validation of two submaximal aerobic fitness tests, the self-monitoring Fox-walk test and the Åstrand cycle test in people with rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Nordgren, Birgitta; Fridén, Cecilia; Jansson, Eva; Österlund, Ted; Grooten, Wilhelmus Johannes; Opava, Christina H; Rickenlund, Anette

2014-09-17

Aerobic capacity tests are important to evaluate exercise programs and to encourage individuals to have a physically active lifestyle. Submaximal tests, if proven valid and reliable could be used for estimation of maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max). The purpose of the study was to examine the criterion-validity of the submaximal self-monitoring Fox-walk test and the submaximal Åstrand cycle test against a maximal cycle test in people with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). A secondary aim was to study the influence of different formulas for age predicted maximal heart rate when estimating VO2max by the Åstrand test. Twenty seven subjects (81% female), mean (SD) age 62 (8.1) years, diagnosed with RA since 17.9 (11.7) years, participated in the study. They performed the Fox-walk test (775 meters), the Åstrand test and the maximal cycle test (measured VO2max test). Pearson's correlation coefficients were calculated to determine the direction and strength of the association between the tests, and paired t-tests were used to test potential differences between the tests. Bland and Altman methods were used to assess whether there was any systematic disagreement between the submaximal tests and the maximal test. The correlation between the estimated and measured VO2max values were strong and ranged between r = 0.52 and r = 0.82 including the use of different formulas for age predicted maximal heart rate, when estimating VO2max by the Åstrand test. VO2max was overestimated by 30% by the Fox-walk test and underestimated by 10% by the Åstrand test corrected for age. When the different formulas for age predicted maximal heart rate were used, the results showed that two formulas better predicted maximal heart rate and consequently a more precise estimation of VO2max. Despite the fact that the Fox-walk test overestimated VO2max substantially, the test is a promising method for self-monitoring VO2max and further development of the test is encouraged. The Åstrand test should be considered as highly valid and feasible and the two newly developed formulas for predicting maximal heart rate according to age are preferable to use when estimating VO2max by the Åstrand test.

Estimation of Soil-Water Characteristic Curves in Multiple-Cycles Using Membrane and TDR System

PubMed Central

Hong, Won-Taek; Jung, Young-Seok; Kang, Seonghun; Lee, Jong-Sub

2016-01-01

The objective of this study is to estimate multiple-cycles of the soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC) using an innovative volumetric pressure plate extractor (VPPE), which is incorporated with a membrane and time domain reflectometry (TDR). The pressure cell includes the membrane to reduce the experimental time and the TDR probe to automatically estimate the volumetric water content. For the estimation of SWCC using the VPPE system, four specimens with different grain size and void ratio are prepared. The volumetric water contents of the specimens according to the matric suction are measured by the burette system and are estimated in the TDR system during five cycles of SWCC tests. The volumetric water contents estimated by the TDR system are almost identical to those determined by the burette system. The experimental time significantly decreases with the new VPPE. The hysteresis in the SWCC is largest in the first cycle and is nearly identical after 1.5 cycles. As the initial void ratio decreases, the air entry value increases. This study suggests that the new VPPE may effectively estimate multiple-cycles of the SWCC of unsaturated soils. PMID:28774139

Socioeconomic and regional differences in active transportation in Brazil

PubMed Central

de Sá, Thiago Hérick; Pereira, Rafael Henrique Moraes; Duran, Ana Clara; Monteiro, Carlos Augusto

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To present national estimates regarding walking or cycling for commuting in Brazil and in 10 metropolitan regions. METHODS By using data from the Health section of 2008’s Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílio (Brazil’s National Household Sample Survey), we estimated how often employed people walk or cycle to work, disaggregating our results by sex, age range, education level, household monthly income per capita, urban or rural address, metropolitan regions, and macro-regions in Brazil. Furthermore, we estimated the distribution of this same frequency according to quintiles of household monthly income per capita in each metropolitan region of the country. RESULTS A third of the employed men and women walk or cycle from home to work in Brazil. For both sexes, this share decreases as income and education levels rise, and it is higher among younger individuals, especially among those living in rural areas and in the Northeast region of the country. Depending on the metropolitan region, the practice of active transportation is two to five times more frequent among low-income individuals than among high-income individuals. CONCLUSIONS Walking or cycling to work in Brazil is most frequent among low-income individuals and the ones living in less economically developed areas. Active transportation evaluation in Brazil provides important information for public health and urban mobility policy-making PMID:27355465

Satellite-based global-ocean mass balance estimates of interannual variability and emerging trends in continental freshwater discharge

PubMed Central

Syed, Tajdarul H.; Famiglietti, James S.; Chambers, Don P.; Willis, Josh K.; Hilburn, Kyle

2010-01-01

Freshwater discharge from the continents is a key component of Earth’s water cycle that sustains human life and ecosystem health. Surprisingly, owing to a number of socioeconomic and political obstacles, a comprehensive global river discharge observing system does not yet exist. Here we use 13 years (1994–2006) of satellite precipitation, evaporation, and sea level data in an ocean mass balance to estimate freshwater discharge into the global ocean. Results indicate that global freshwater discharge averaged 36,055 km3/y for the study period while exhibiting significant interannual variability driven primarily by El Niño Southern Oscillation cycles. The method described here can ultimately be used to estimate long-term global discharge trends as the records of sea level rise and ocean temperature lengthen. For the relatively short 13-year period studied here, global discharge increased by 540 km3/y2, which was largely attributed to an increase of global-ocean evaporation (768 km3/y2). Sustained growth of these flux rates into long-term trends would provide evidence for increasing intensity of the hydrologic cycle. PMID:20921364

Emission inventory estimation of an intercity bus terminal.

PubMed

Qiu, Zhaowen; Li, Xiaoxia; Hao, Yanzhao; Deng, Shunxi; Gao, H Oliver

2016-06-01

Intercity bus terminals are hotspots of air pollution due to concentrated activities of diesel buses. In order to evaluate the bus terminals' impact on air quality, it is necessary to estimate the associated mobile emission inventories. Since the vehicles' operating condition at the bus terminal varies significantly, conventional calculation of the emissions based on average emission factors suffers the loss of accuracy. In this study, we examined a typical intercity bus terminal-the Southern City Bus Station of Xi'an, China-using a multi-scale emission model-(US EPA's MOVES model)-to quantity the vehicle emission inventory. A representative operating cycle for buses within the station is constructed. The emission inventory was then estimated using detailed inputs including vehicle ages, operating speeds, operating schedules, and operating mode distribution, as well as meteorological data (temperature and humidity). Five functional areas (bus yard, platforms, disembarking area, bus travel routes within the station, and bus entrance/exit routes) at the terminal were identified, and the bus operation cycle was established using the micro-trip cycle construction method. Results of our case study showed that switching to compressed natural gas (CNG) from diesel fuel could reduce PM2.5 and CO emissions by 85.64 and 6.21 %, respectively, in the microenvironment of the bus terminal. When CNG is used, tail pipe exhaust PM2.5 emission is significantly reduced, even less than brake wear PM2.5. The estimated bus operating cycles can also offer researchers and policy makers important information for emission evaluation in the planning and design of any typical intercity bus terminals of a similar scale.

Daily Light Exposure Patterns Reveal Phase and Period of the Human Circadian Clock.

PubMed

Woelders, Tom; Beersma, Domien G M; Gordijn, Marijke C M; Hut, Roelof A; Wams, Emma J

2017-06-01

Light is the most potent time cue that synchronizes (entrains) the circadian pacemaker to the 24-h solar cycle. This entrainment process is an interplay between an individual's daily light perception and intrinsic pacemaker period under free-running conditions. Establishing individual estimates of circadian phase and period can be time-consuming. We show that circadian phase can be accurately predicted (SD = 1.1 h for dim light melatonin onset, DLMO) using 9 days of ambulatory light and activity data as an input to Kronauer's limit-cycle model for the human circadian system. This approach also yields an estimated circadian period of 24.2 h (SD = 0.2 h), with longer periods resulting in later DLMOs. A larger amount of daylight exposure resulted in an earlier DLMO. Individuals with a long circadian period also showed shorter intervals between DLMO and sleep timing. When a field-based estimation of tau can be validated under laboratory studies in a wide variety of individuals, the proposed methods may prove to be essential tools for individualized chronotherapy and light treatment for shift work and jetlag applications. These methods may improve our understanding of fundamental properties of human circadian rhythms under daily living conditions.

Daily Light Exposure Patterns Reveal Phase and Period of the Human Circadian Clock

PubMed Central

Woelders, Tom; Beersma, Domien G. M.; Gordijn, Marijke C. M.; Hut, Roelof A.; Wams, Emma J.

2017-01-01

Light is the most potent time cue that synchronizes (entrains) the circadian pacemaker to the 24-h solar cycle. This entrainment process is an interplay between an individual’s daily light perception and intrinsic pacemaker period under free-running conditions. Establishing individual estimates of circadian phase and period can be time-consuming. We show that circadian phase can be accurately predicted (SD = 1.1 h for dim light melatonin onset, DLMO) using 9 days of ambulatory light and activity data as an input to Kronauer’s limit-cycle model for the human circadian system. This approach also yields an estimated circadian period of 24.2 h (SD = 0.2 h), with longer periods resulting in later DLMOs. A larger amount of daylight exposure resulted in an earlier DLMO. Individuals with a long circadian period also showed shorter intervals between DLMO and sleep timing. When a field-based estimation of tau can be validated under laboratory studies in a wide variety of individuals, the proposed methods may prove to be essential tools for individualized chronotherapy and light treatment for shift work and jetlag applications. These methods may improve our understanding of fundamental properties of human circadian rhythms under daily living conditions. PMID:28452285

2-D Versus 3-D Cross-Correlation-Based Radial and Circumferential Strain Estimation Using Multiplane 2-D Ultrafast Ultrasound in a 3-D Atherosclerotic Carotid Artery Model.

PubMed

Fekkes, Stein; Swillens, Abigail E S; Hansen, Hendrik H G; Saris, Anne E C M; Nillesen, Maartje M; Iannaccone, Francesco; Segers, Patrick; de Korte, Chris L

2016-10-01

Three-dimensional (3-D) strain estimation might improve the detection and localization of high strain regions in the carotid artery (CA) for identification of vulnerable plaques. This paper compares 2-D versus 3-D displacement estimation in terms of radial and circumferential strain using simulated ultrasound (US) images of a patient-specific 3-D atherosclerotic CA model at the bifurcation embedded in surrounding tissue generated with ABAQUS software. Global longitudinal motion was superimposed to the model based on the literature data. A Philips L11-3 linear array transducer was simulated, which transmitted plane waves at three alternating angles at a pulse repetition rate of 10 kHz. Interframe (IF) radio-frequency US data were simulated in Field II for 191 equally spaced longitudinal positions of the internal CA. Accumulated radial and circumferential displacements were estimated using tracking of the IF displacements estimated by a two-step normalized cross-correlation method and displacement compounding. Least-squares strain estimation was performed to determine accumulated radial and circumferential strain. The performance of the 2-D and 3-D methods was compared by calculating the root-mean-squared error of the estimated strains with respect to the reference strains obtained from the model. More accurate strain images were obtained using the 3-D displacement estimation for the entire cardiac cycle. The 3-D technique clearly outperformed the 2-D technique in phases with high IF longitudinal motion. In fact, the large IF longitudinal motion rendered it impossible to accurately track the tissue and cumulate strains over the entire cardiac cycle with the 2-D technique.

Developing Analogy Cost Estimates for Space Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shishko, Robert

2004-01-01

The analogy approach in cost estimation combines actual cost data from similar existing systems, activities, or items with adjustments for a new project's technical, physical or programmatic differences to derive a cost estimate for the new system. This method is normally used early in a project cycle when there is insufficient design/cost data to use as a basis for (or insufficient time to perform) a detailed engineering cost estimate. The major limitation of this method is that it relies on the judgment and experience of the analyst/estimator. The analyst must ensure that the best analogy or analogies have been selected, and that appropriate adjustments have been made. While analogy costing is common, there is a dearth of advice in the literature on the 'adjustment methodology', especially for hardware projects. This paper discusses some potential approaches that can improve rigor and repeatability in the analogy costing process.

Potential for Integrating Diffusion of Innovation Principles into Life Cycle Assessment of Emerging Technologies.

PubMed

Sharp, Benjamin E; Miller, Shelie A

2016-03-15

Life cycle assessment (LCA) measures cradle-to-grave environmental impacts of a product. To assess impacts of an emerging technology, LCA should be coupled with additional methods that estimate how that technology might be deployed. The extent and manner that an emerging technology diffuses throughout a region shapes the magnitude and type of environmental impacts. Diffusion of innovation is an established field of research that analyzes the adoption of new innovations, and its principles can be used to construct scenario models that enhance LCA of emerging technologies. Integrating diffusion modeling techniques with an LCA of emerging technology can provide estimates for the extent of market penetration, the displacement of existing systems, and the rate of adoption. Two general perspectives of application are macro-level diffusion models that use a function of time to represent adoption, and microlevel diffusion models that simulate adoption through interactions of individuals. Incorporating diffusion of innovation concepts complement existing methods within LCA to inform proactive environmental management of emerging technologies.

Life cycle contributions of copper from vessel painting and maintenance activities

PubMed Central

Earley, Patrick J.; Swope, Brandon L.; Barbeau, Katherine; Bundy, Randelle; McDonald, Janessa A.; Rivera-Duarte, Ignacio

2013-01-01

Copper-based epoxy and ablative antifouling painted panels were exposed in natural seawater to evaluate environmental loading parameters. In situ loading factors including initial exposure, passive leaching, and surface refreshment were measured utilizing two protocols developed by the US Navy: the dome method and the in-water hull cleaning sampling method. Cleaning techniques investigated included a soft-pile carpet and a medium duty 3M™ pad for fouling removal. Results show that the passive leach rates of copper peaked three days after both initial deployment and cleaning events (CEs), followed by a rapid decrease over about 15 days and a slow approach to asymptotic levels on approximately day 30. Additionally, copper was more bioavailable during a CE in comparison to the passive leaching that immediately followed. A paint life cycle model quantifying annual copper loading estimates for each paint and cleaning method based on a three-year cycle of painting, episodic cleaning, and passive leaching is presented. PMID:24199998

Extracting the respiration cycle lengths from ECG signal recorded with bed sheet electrodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vehkaoja, A.; Peltokangas, M.; Lekkala, J.

2013-09-01

A method for recognizing the respiration cycle lengths from the electrocardiographic (ECG) signal recorded with textile electrodes that are attached to a bed sheet is proposed. The method uses two features extracted from the ECG that are affected by the respiration: respiratory sinus arrhythmia and the amplitude of the R-peaks. The proposed method was tested in one hour long recordings with ten healthy young adults. A relative mean absolute error of 5.6 % was achieved when the algorithm was able to provide a result for approximately 40 % of the time. 90 % of the values were within 0.5 s and 97 % within 1 s from the reference respiration value. In addition to the instantaneous respiration cycle lengths, also the mean values during 1 and 5 minutes epochs are calculated. The effect of the ECG signal source is evaluated by calculating the result also from the simultaneously recorded reference ECG signal. The acquired respiration information can be used in the estimation of sleep quality and the detection of sleep disorders.

A direct estimate of evapotranspiration over the Amazon basin and implications for our understanding of carbon and water cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swann, A. L. S.; Koven, C.; Lombardozzi, D.; Bonan, G. B.

2017-12-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a critical term in the surface energy budget as well as the water cycle. There are few direct measurements of ET, and thus the magnitude and variability is poorly constrained at large spatial scales. Estimates of the annual cycle of ET over the Amazon are critical because they influence predictions of the seasonal cycle of carbon fluxes, as well as atmospheric dynamics and circulation. We estimate ET for the Amazon basin using a water budget approach, by differencing rainfall, discharge, and time-varying storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment. We find that the climatological annual cycle of ET over the Amazon basin upstream of Óbidos shows suppression of ET during the wet season, and higher ET during the dry season, consistent with flux tower based observations in seasonally dry forests. We also find a statistically significant decrease in ET over the time period 2002-2015 of -1.46 mm/yr. Our direct estimate of the seasonal cycle of ET is largely consistent with previous indirect estimates, including energy budget based approaches, an up-scaled station based estimate, and land surface model estimates, but suggests that suppression of ET during the wet season is underestimated by existing products. We further quantify possible contributors to the phasing of the seasonal cycle and downward time trend using land surface models.

Estimating the mass variance in neutron multiplicity counting-A comparison of approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubi, C.; Croft, S.; Favalli, A.; Ocherashvili, A.; Pedersen, B.

2017-12-01

In the standard practice of neutron multiplicity counting , the first three sampled factorial moments of the event triggered neutron count distribution are used to quantify the three main neutron source terms: the spontaneous fissile material effective mass, the relative (α , n) production and the induced fission source responsible for multiplication. This study compares three methods to quantify the statistical uncertainty of the estimated mass: the bootstrap method, propagation of variance through moments, and statistical analysis of cycle data method. Each of the three methods was implemented on a set of four different NMC measurements, held at the JRC-laboratory in Ispra, Italy, sampling four different Pu samples in a standard Plutonium Scrap Multiplicity Counter (PSMC) well counter.

Estimating the mass variance in neutron multiplicity counting $-$ A comparison of approaches

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dubi, C.; Croft, S.; Favalli, A.

In the standard practice of neutron multiplicity counting, the first three sampled factorial moments of the event triggered neutron count distribution are used to quantify the three main neutron source terms: the spontaneous fissile material effective mass, the relative (α,n) production and the induced fission source responsible for multiplication. This study compares three methods to quantify the statistical uncertainty of the estimated mass: the bootstrap method, propagation of variance through moments, and statistical analysis of cycle data method. Each of the three methods was implemented on a set of four different NMC measurements, held at the JRC-laboratory in Ispra, Italy,more » sampling four different Pu samples in a standard Plutonium Scrap Multiplicity Counter (PSMC) well counter.« less

Estimating the mass variance in neutron multiplicity counting $-$ A comparison of approaches

DOE PAGES

Dubi, C.; Croft, S.; Favalli, A.; ...

2017-09-14

In the standard practice of neutron multiplicity counting, the first three sampled factorial moments of the event triggered neutron count distribution are used to quantify the three main neutron source terms: the spontaneous fissile material effective mass, the relative (α,n) production and the induced fission source responsible for multiplication. This study compares three methods to quantify the statistical uncertainty of the estimated mass: the bootstrap method, propagation of variance through moments, and statistical analysis of cycle data method. Each of the three methods was implemented on a set of four different NMC measurements, held at the JRC-laboratory in Ispra, Italy,more » sampling four different Pu samples in a standard Plutonium Scrap Multiplicity Counter (PSMC) well counter.« less

Aggregation in environmental systems - Part 2: Catchment mean transit times and young water fractions under hydrologic nonstationarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchner, J. W.

2016-01-01

Methods for estimating mean transit times from chemical or isotopic tracers (such as Cl-, δ18O, or δ2H) commonly assume that catchments are stationary (i.e., time-invariant) and homogeneous. Real catchments are neither. In a companion paper, I showed that catchment mean transit times estimated from seasonal tracer cycles are highly vulnerable to aggregation error, exhibiting strong bias and large scatter in spatially heterogeneous catchments. I proposed the young water fraction, which is virtually immune to aggregation error under spatial heterogeneity, as a better measure of transit times. Here I extend this analysis by exploring how nonstationarity affects mean transit times and young water fractions estimated from seasonal tracer cycles, using benchmark tests based on a simple two-box model. The model exhibits complex nonstationary behavior, with striking volatility in tracer concentrations, young water fractions, and mean transit times, driven by rapid shifts in the mixing ratios of fluxes from the upper and lower boxes. The transit-time distribution in streamflow becomes increasingly skewed at higher discharges, with marked increases in the young water fraction and decreases in the mean water age, reflecting the increased dominance of the upper box at higher flows. This simple two-box model exhibits strong equifinality, which can be partly resolved by simple parameter transformations. However, transit times are primarily determined by residual storage, which cannot be constrained through hydrograph calibration and must instead be estimated by tracer behavior. Seasonal tracer cycles in the two-box model are very poor predictors of mean transit times, with typical errors of several hundred percent. However, the same tracer cycles predict time-averaged young water fractions (Fyw) within a few percent, even in model catchments that are both nonstationary and spatially heterogeneous (although they may be biased by roughly 0.1-0.2 at sites where strong precipitation seasonality is correlated with precipitation tracer concentrations). Flow-weighted fits to the seasonal tracer cycles accurately predict the flow-weighted average Fyw in streamflow, while unweighted fits to the seasonal tracer cycles accurately predict the unweighted average Fyw. Young water fractions can also be estimated separately for individual flow regimes, again with a precision of a few percent, allowing direct determination of how shifts in a catchment's hydraulic regime alter the fraction of water reaching the stream by fast flowpaths. One can also estimate the chemical composition of idealized "young water" and "old water" end-members, using relationships between young water fractions and solute concentrations across different flow regimes. These results demonstrate that mean transit times cannot be estimated reliably from seasonal tracer cycles and that, by contrast, the young water fraction is a robust and useful metric of transit times, even in catchments that exhibit strong nonstationarity and heterogeneity.

Estimate of genetic gain in popcorn after cycles of phenotypic recurrent selection.

PubMed

Ematné, H J; Nunes, J A R; Dias, K O G; Prado, P E R; Souza, J C

2016-05-20

Popcorn is widely consumed in Brazil, yet there are few breeding programs for this crop. Recurrent selection (RS) is a viable breeding alternative for popcorn; however, the gains achieved must be frequently checked. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of selection for grain type (round and pointed) after four cycles of phenotypic RS on the main agronomic traits of popcorn, to estimate the genetic gain achieved for the trait of expansion volume (EV), and to obtain estimates of phenotypic correlations for the main traits of the crop in the UFLA E and UFLA R populations. The zero, one, two, and three cycles of the UFLA E and UFLA R populations, the fourth cycle, and the controls IAC-112 and IAC-125 were used. The experiments were conducted at the experimental farm of Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA; Environment 1) and at the experimental area of the Genetics and Plant Breeding Sector of the Department of Biology at UFLA (Environment 2) in the 2010/11 crop season. Nine agronomic traits were evaluated, including EV and grain yield (GY). The UFLA R and UFLA E populations showed similar behavior for all evaluated traits. The type of grain did not affect the genetic gain for EV, which was 5 and 3.7% in each cycle carried out in the UFLA E and UFLA R population, respectively. Phenotypic selection carried out during recombination for EV is an effective method for increasing expression of the trait. EV and GY did not show a linear association.

Tau-independent Phase Analysis: A Novel Method for Accurately Determining Phase Shifts.

PubMed

Tackenberg, Michael C; Jones, Jeff R; Page, Terry L; Hughey, Jacob J

2018-06-01

Estimations of period and phase are essential in circadian biology. While many techniques exist for estimating period, comparatively few methods are available for estimating phase. Current approaches to analyzing phase often vary between studies and are sensitive to coincident changes in period and the stage of the circadian cycle at which the stimulus occurs. Here we propose a new technique, tau-independent phase analysis (TIPA), for quantifying phase shifts in multiple types of circadian time-course data. Through comprehensive simulations, we show that TIPA is both more accurate and more precise than the standard actogram approach. TIPA is computationally simple and therefore will enable accurate and reproducible quantification of phase shifts across multiple subfields of chronobiology.

Risk of chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia with early discontinuation of pegfilgrastim prophylaxis in US clinical practice.

PubMed

Weycker, Derek; Li, Xiaoyan; Barron, Rich; Li, Yanli; Reiner, Maureen; Kartashov, Alex; Figueredo, Jacqueline; Tzivelekis, Spiros; Garcia, Jacob

2016-06-01

Accumulating evidence suggests that not all cancer chemotherapy patients who receive first-cycle pegfilgrastim prophylaxis continue to receive it in subsequent cycles and that these patients may be subsequently at higher risk of febrile neutropenia (FN). Additional evidence from US clinical practice is warranted. Data from two US private healthcare claims repositories were employed. The source population comprised adults who received "intermediate-risk" or "high-risk" chemotherapy regimens for solid cancers or non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and first-cycle pegfilgrastim prophylaxis. From the source population, all patients who did not receive second-cycle pegfilgrastim prophylaxis ("comparison patients") were matched (1:1) to those who received it ("pegfilgrastim patients") based on cancer, regimen, and propensity score. Odds ratios (OR) for FN-broad and narrow definitions-during the second chemotherapy cycle were estimated for comparison patients versus pegfilgrastim patients using generalized estimating equations. A total of 2245 comparison patients (5.3 % of source population) were matched to pegfilgrastim patients; cohorts were well-balanced on baseline characteristics. Second-cycle FN incidence proportions for comparison and pegfilgrastim patients were 3.8 versus 2.2 % based on broad definition and 2.6 versus 0.8 % based on narrow definition; corresponding OR were 1.7 (95 % CI 1.2-2.5, p = 0.002) and 3.5 (95 % CI 2.0-6.0, p < 0.001). Results were similar within cancer/regimen-subgroups and were robust when using alternative methods for confounding adjustment. In this retrospective evaluation of cancer chemotherapy patients who received first-cycle pegfilgrastim prophylaxis in US clinical practice, a clinically relevant minority did not receive second-cycle prophylaxis. Second-cycle FN odds among this subset were significantly higher than they were among those who continued prophylaxis.

Uncertainty in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from United States natural gas end-uses and its effects on policy.

PubMed

Venkatesh, Aranya; Jaramillo, Paulina; Griffin, W Michael; Matthews, H Scott

2011-10-01

Increasing concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States have spurred interest in alternate low carbon fuel sources, such as natural gas. Life cycle assessment (LCA) methods can be used to estimate potential emissions reductions through the use of such fuels. Some recent policies have used the results of LCAs to encourage the use of low carbon fuels to meet future energy demands in the U.S., without, however, acknowledging and addressing the uncertainty and variability prevalent in LCA. Natural gas is a particularly interesting fuel since it can be used to meet various energy demands, for example, as a transportation fuel or in power generation. Estimating the magnitudes and likelihoods of achieving emissions reductions from competing end-uses of natural gas using LCA offers one way to examine optimal strategies of natural gas resource allocation, given that its availability is likely to be limited in the future. In this study, the uncertainty in life cycle GHG emissions of natural gas (domestic and imported) consumed in the U.S. was estimated using probabilistic modeling methods. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to obtain sample distributions representing life cycle GHG emissions from the use of 1 MJ of domestic natural gas and imported LNG. Life cycle GHG emissions per energy unit of average natural gas consumed in the U.S were found to range between -8 and 9% of the mean value of 66 g CO(2)e/MJ. The probabilities of achieving emissions reductions by using natural gas for transportation and power generation, as a substitute for incumbent fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and coal were estimated. The use of natural gas for power generation instead of coal was found to have the highest and most likely emissions reductions (almost a 100% probability of achieving reductions of 60 g CO(2)e/MJ of natural gas used), while there is a 10-35% probability of the emissions from natural gas being higher than the incumbent if it were used as a transportation fuel. This likelihood of an increase in GHG emissions is indicative of the potential failure of a climate policy targeting reductions in GHG emissions.

Detection of Changes in the Medicago sativa Retinoblastoma-Related Protein (MsRBR1) Phosphorylation During Cell Cycle Progression in Synchronized Cell Suspension Culture.

PubMed

Ayaydin, Ferhan; Kotogány, Edit; Ábrahám, Edit; Horváth, Gábor V

2017-01-01

Deepening our knowledge on the regulation of the plant cell division cycle depends on techniques that allow for the enrichment of cell populations in defined cell cycle phases. Synchronization of cell division can be achieved using different plant tissues; however, well-established cell suspension cultures provide large amount of biological sample for further analyses. Here, we describe the methodology of the establishment, propagation, and analysis of a Medicago sativa suspension culture that can be used for efficient synchronization of the cell division. A novel 5-ethynyl-2'-deoxyuridine (EdU)-based method is used for the estimation of cell fraction that enters DNA synthesis phase of the cell cycle and we also demonstrate the changes in the phosphorylation level of Medicago sativa retinoblastoma-related protein (MsRBR1) during cell cycle progression.

Analytic methods for design of wave cycles for wave rotor core engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Resler, Edwin L., Jr.; Mocsari, Jeffrey C.; Nalim, M. R.

1993-01-01

A procedure to design a preliminary wave rotor cycle for any application is presented. To complete a cycle with heat addition there are two separate but related design steps that must be followed. The 'wave' boundary conditions determine the allowable amount of heat added in any case and the ensuing wave pattern requires certain pressure discharge conditions to allow the process to be made cyclic. This procedure, when applied, gives a first estimate of the cycle performance and the necessary information for the next step in the design process, namely the application of a characteristic based or other appropriate detailed one dimensional wave calculation that locates the proper porting around the periphery of the wave rotor. Four examples of the design procedure are given to demonstrate its utility and generality. These examples also illustrate the large gains in performance that could be realized with the use of wave rotor enhanced propulsion cycles.

Performance of Trajectory Models with Wind Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Alan G.; Weygandt, Stephen S.; Schwartz, Barry; Murphy, James R.

2009-01-01

Typical aircraft trajectory predictors use wind forecasts but do not account for the forecast uncertainty. A method for generating estimates of wind prediction uncertainty is described and its effect on aircraft trajectory prediction uncertainty is investigated. The procedure for estimating the wind prediction uncertainty relies uses a time-lagged ensemble of weather model forecasts from the hourly updated Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) weather prediction system. Forecast uncertainty is estimated using measures of the spread amongst various RUC time-lagged ensemble forecasts. This proof of concept study illustrates the estimated uncertainty and the actual wind errors, and documents the validity of the assumed ensemble-forecast accuracy relationship. Aircraft trajectory predictions are made using RUC winds with provision for the estimated uncertainty. Results for a set of simulated flights indicate this simple approach effectively translates the wind uncertainty estimate into an aircraft trajectory uncertainty. A key strength of the method is the ability to relate uncertainty to specific weather phenomena (contained in the various ensemble members) allowing identification of regional variations in uncertainty.

Estimates of global, regional, and national annual CO{sub 2} emissions from fossil-fuel burning, hydraulic cement production, and gas flaring: 1950--1992

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boden, T.A.; Marland, G.; Andres, R.J.

1995-12-01

This document describes the compilation, content, and format of the most comprehensive C0{sub 2}-emissions database currently available. The database includes global, regional, and national annual estimates of C0{sub 2} emissions resulting from fossil-fuel burning, cement manufacturing, and gas flaring in oil fields for 1950--92 as well as the energy production, consumption, and trade data used for these estimates. The methods of Marland and Rotty (1983) are used to calculate these emission estimates. For the first time, the methods and data used to calculate CO, emissions from gas flaring are presented. This C0{sub 2}-emissions database is useful for carbon-cycle research, providesmore » estimates of the rate at which fossil-fuel combustion has released C0{sub 2} to the atmosphere, and offers baseline estimates for those countries compiling 1990 C0{sub 2}-emissions inventories.« less

A numerical investigation of premixed combustion in wave rotors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nalim, M. Razi; Paxson, Daniel E.

1996-01-01

Wave rotor cycles which utilize premixed combustion processes within the passages are examined numerically using a one-dimensional CFD-based simulation. Internal-combustion wave rotors are envisioned for use as pressure-gain combustors in gas turbine engines. The simulation methodology is described, including a presentation of the assumed governing equations for the flow and reaction in the channels, the numerical integration method used, and the modeling of external components such as recirculation ducts. A number of cycle simulations are then presented which illustrate both turbulent-deflagration and detonation modes of combustion. Estimates of performance and rotor wall temperatures for the various cycles are made, and the advantages and disadvantages of each are discussed.

Kinetic characterisation of primer mismatches in allele-specific PCR: a quantitative assessment.

PubMed

Waterfall, Christy M; Eisenthal, Robert; Cobb, Benjamin D

2002-12-20

A novel method of estimating the kinetic parameters of Taq DNA polymerase during rapid cycle PCR is presented. A model was constructed using a simplified sigmoid function to represent substrate accumulation during PCR in combination with the general equation describing high substrate inhibition for Michaelis-Menten enzymes. The PCR progress curve was viewed as a series of independent reactions where initial rates were accurately measured for each cycle. Kinetic parameters were obtained for allele-specific PCR (AS-PCR) amplification to examine the effect of mismatches on amplification. A high degree of correlation was obtained providing evidence of substrate inhibition as a major cause of the plateau phase that occurs in the later cycles of PCR.

Bicycle Guidelines and Crash Rates on Cycle Tracks in the United States

PubMed Central

Morency, Patrick; Miranda-Moreno, Luis F.; Willett, Walter C.; Dennerlein, Jack T.

2013-01-01

Objectives. We studied state-adopted bicycle guidelines to determine whether cycle tracks (physically separated, bicycle-exclusive paths adjacent to sidewalks) were recommended, whether they were built, and their crash rate. Methods. We analyzed and compared US bicycle facility guidelines published between 1972 and 1999. We identified 19 cycle tracks in the United States and collected extensive data on cycle track design, usage, and crash history from local communities. We used bicycle counts and crash data to estimate crash rates. Results. A bicycle facility guideline written in 1972 endorsed cycle tracks but American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) guidelines (1974–1999) discouraged or did not include cycle tracks and did not cite research about crash rates on cycle tracks. For the 19 US cycle tracks we examined, the overall crash rate was 2.3 (95% confidence interval = 1.7, 3.0) per 1 million bicycle kilometers. Conclusions. AASHTO bicycle guidelines are not explicitly based on rigorous or up-to-date research. Our results show that the risk of bicycle–vehicle crashes is lower on US cycle tracks than published crashes rates on roadways. This study and previous investigations support building cycle tracks. PMID:23678920

A learning-based markerless approach for full-body kinematics estimation in-natura from a single image.

PubMed

Drory, Ami; Li, Hongdong; Hartley, Richard

2017-04-11

We present a supervised machine learning approach for markerless estimation of human full-body kinematics for a cyclist from an unconstrained colour image. This approach is motivated by the limitations of existing marker-based approaches restricted by infrastructure, environmental conditions, and obtrusive markers. By using a discriminatively learned mixture-of-parts model, we construct a probabilistic tree representation to model the configuration and appearance of human body joints. During the learning stage, a Structured Support Vector Machine (SSVM) learns body parts appearance and spatial relations. In the testing stage, the learned models are employed to recover body pose via searching in a test image over a pyramid structure. We focus on the movement modality of cycling to demonstrate the efficacy of our approach. In natura estimation of cycling kinematics using images is challenging because of human interaction with a bicycle causing frequent occlusions. We make no assumptions in relation to the kinematic constraints of the model, nor the appearance of the scene. Our technique finds multiple quality hypotheses for the pose. We evaluate the precision of our method on two new datasets using loss functions. Our method achieves a score of 91.1 and 69.3 on mean Probability of Correct Keypoint (PCK) measure and 88.7 and 66.1 on the Average Precision of Keypoints (APK) measure for the frontal and sagittal datasets respectively. We conclude that our method opens new vistas to robust user-interaction free estimation of full body kinematics, a prerequisite to motion analysis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cycle Counting Methods of the Aircraft Engine

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fedorchenko, Dmitrii G.; Novikov, Dmitrii K.

2016-01-01

The concept of condition-based gas turbine-powered aircraft operation is realized all over the world, which implementation requires knowledge of the end-of-life information related to components of aircraft engines in service. This research proposes an algorithm for estimating the equivalent cyclical running hours. This article provides analysis…

In vivo monitoring of urea cycle activity with (13)C-acetate as a tracer of ureagenesis.

PubMed

Opladen, Thomas; Lindner, Martin; Das, Anibh M; Marquardt, Thorsten; Khan, Aneal; Emre, Sukru H; Burton, Barbara K; Barshop, Bruce A; Böhm, Thea; Meyburg, Jochen; Zangerl, Kathrin; Mayorandan, Sebene; Burgard, Peter; Dürr, Ulrich H N; Rosenkranz, Bernd; Rennecke, Jörg; Derbinski, Jens; Yudkoff, Marc; Hoffmann, Georg F

2016-01-01

The hepatic urea cycle is the main metabolic pathway for detoxification of ammonia. Inborn errors of urea cycle function present with severe hyperammonemia and a high case fatality rate. Long-term prognosis depends on the residual activity of the defective enzyme. A reliable method to estimate urea cycle activity in-vivo does not exist yet. The aim of this study was to evaluate a practical method to quantify (13)C-urea production as a marker for urea cycle function in healthy subjects, patients with confirmed urea cycle defect (UCD) and asymptomatic carriers of UCD mutations. (13)C-labeled sodium acetate was applied orally in a single dose to 47 subjects (10 healthy subjects, 28 symptomatic patients, 9 asymptomatic carriers). The oral (13)C-ureagenesis assay is a safe method. While healthy subjects and asymptomatic carriers did not differ with regards to kinetic variables for urea cycle flux, symptomatic patients had lower (13)C-plasma urea levels. Although the (13)C-ureagenesis assay revealed no significant differences between individual urea cycle enzyme defects, it reflected the heterogeneity between different clinical subgroups, including male neonatal onset ornithine carbamoyltransferase deficiency. Applying the (13)C-urea area under the curve can differentiate between severe from more mildly affected neonates. Late onset patients differ significantly from neonates, carriers and healthy subjects. This study evaluated the oral (13)C-ureagenesis assay as a sensitive in-vivo measure for ureagenesis capacity. The assay has the potential to become a reliable tool to differentiate UCD patient subgroups, follow changes in ureagenesis capacity and could be helpful in monitoring novel therapies of UCD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assimilating Satellite SST Observations into a Diurnal Cycle Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pimentel, S.; Haines, K.; Nichols, N. K.

2006-12-01

The wealth of satellite sea surface temperature (SST) data now available opens the possibility of large improvements in SST estimation. However the use of such data is not straight forward; a major difficulty in assimilating satellite observations is that they represent a near surface temperature, whereas in ocean models the top level represents the temperature at a greater depth. During the day, under favourable conditions of clear skies and calm winds, the near surface temperature is often seen to have a diurnal cycle that is picked up in satellite observations. Current ocean models do not have the vertical or temporal resolution to adequately represent this daytime warming. The usual approach is to discard daytime observations as they are considered diurnally `corrupted'. A new assimilation technique is developed here that assimilates observations into a diurnal cycle model. The diurnal cycle of SSTs are modelled using a 1-D mixed layer model with fine near surface resolution and 6 hourly forcing from NWP analyses. The accuracy of the SST estimates are hampered by uncertainties in the forcing data. The extent of diurnal SST warming at a particular location and time is predominately governed by a non-linear response to cloud cover and sea surface wind speeds which greatly affect the air-sea fluxes. The method proposed here combines infrared and microwave SST satellite observations in order to derive corrections to the cloud cover and wind speed values over the day. By adjusting the forcing, SST estimation and air-sea fluxes should be improved and are at least more consistent with each other. This new technique for assimilating SST data can be considered a tool for producing more accurate diurnal warming estimates.

Automatic cardiac cycle determination directly from EEG-fMRI data by multi-scale peak detection method.

PubMed

Wong, Chung-Ki; Luo, Qingfei; Zotev, Vadim; Phillips, Raquel; Chan, Kam Wai Clifford; Bodurka, Jerzy

2018-03-31

In simultaneous EEG-fMRI, identification of the period of cardioballistic artifact (BCG) in EEG is required for the artifact removal. Recording the electrocardiogram (ECG) waveform during fMRI is difficult, often causing inaccurate period detection. Since the waveform of the BCG extracted by independent component analysis (ICA) is relatively invariable compared to the ECG waveform, we propose a multiple-scale peak-detection algorithm to determine the BCG cycle directly from the EEG data. The algorithm first extracts the high contrast BCG component from the EEG data by ICA. The BCG cycle is then estimated by band-pass filtering the component around the fundamental frequency identified from its energy spectral density, and the peak of BCG artifact occurrence is selected from each of the estimated cycle. The algorithm is shown to achieve a high accuracy on a large EEG-fMRI dataset. It is also adaptive to various heart rates without the needs of adjusting the threshold parameters. The cycle detection remains accurate with the scan duration reduced to half a minute. Additionally, the algorithm gives a figure of merit to evaluate the reliability of the detection accuracy. The algorithm is shown to give a higher detection accuracy than the commonly used cycle detection algorithm fmrib_qrsdetect implemented in EEGLAB. The achieved high cycle detection accuracy of our algorithm without using the ECG waveforms makes possible to create and automate pipelines for processing large EEG-fMRI datasets, and virtually eliminates the need for ECG recordings for BCG artifact removal. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Timing of Adjuvant Surgical Oophorectomy in the Menstrual Cycle and Disease-Free and Overall Survival in Premenopausal Women With Operable Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Laudico, Adriano V.; Van Dinh, Nguyen; Allred, D. Craig; Uy, Gemma B.; Quang, Le Hong; Salvador, Jonathan Disraeli S.; Siguan, Stephen Sixto S.; Mirasol-Lumague, Maria Rica; Tung, Nguyen Dinh; Benjaafar, Noureddine; Navarro, Narciso S.; Quy, Tran Tu; De La Peña, Arturo S.; Dofitas, Rodney B.; Bisquera, Orlino C.; Linh, Nguyen Dieu; To, Ta Van; Young, Gregory S.; Hade, Erinn M.; Jarjoura, David

2015-01-01

Background: For women with hormone receptor–positive, operable breast cancer, surgical oophorectomy plus tamoxifen is an effective adjuvant therapy. We conducted a phase III randomized clinical trial to test the hypothesis that oophorectomy surgery performed during the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle was associated with better outcomes. Methods: Seven hundred forty premenopausal women entered a clinical trial in which those women estimated not to be in the luteal phase of their menstrual cycle for the next one to six days (n = 509) were randomly assigned to receive treatment with surgical oophorectomy either delayed to be during a five-day window in the history-estimated midluteal phase of the menstrual cycles, or in the next one to six days. Women who were estimated to be in the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle for the next one to six days (n = 231) were excluded from random assignment and received immediate surgical treatments. All patients began tamoxifen within 6 days of surgery and continued this for 5 years. Kaplan-Meier methods, the log-rank test, and multivariable Cox regression models were used to assess differences in five-year disease-free survival (DFS) between the groups. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: The randomized midluteal phase surgery group had a five-year DFS of 64%, compared with 71% for the immediate surgery random assignment group (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.91 to 1.68, P = .18). Multivariable Cox regression models, which included important prognostic variables, gave similar results (aHR = 1.28, 95% CI = 0.94 to 1.76, P = .12). For overall survival, the univariate hazard ratio was 1.33 (95% CI = 0.94 to 1.89, P = .11) and the multivariable aHR was 1.43 (95% CI = 1.00 to 2.06, P = .05). Better DFS for follicular phase surgery, which was unanticipated, proved consistent across multiple exploratory analyses. Conclusions: The hypothesized benefit of adjuvant luteal phase oophorectomy was not shown in this large trial. PMID:25794890

Administrative Preparedness Strategies: Expediting Procurement and Contracting Cycle Times During an Emergency.

PubMed

Hurst, David; Sharpe, Sharon; Yeager, Valerie A

We assessed whether administrative preparedness processes that were intended to expedite the acquisition of goods and services during a public health emergency affect estimated procurement and contracting cycle times. We obtained data from 2014-2015 applications to the Hospital Preparedness Program and Public Health Emergency Preparedness (HPP-PHEP) cooperative agreements. We compared the estimated procurement and contracting cycle times of 61 HPP-PHEP awardees that did and did not have certain administrative processes in place. Certain processes, such as statutes allowing for procuring and contracting on the open market, had an effect on reducing the estimated cycle times for obtaining goods and services. Other processes, such as cooperative purchasing agreements, also had an effect on estimated procurement time. For example, awardees with statutes that permitted them to obtain goods and services in the open market had an average procurement cycle time of 6 days; those without such statutes had a cycle time of 17 days ( P = .04). PHEP awardees should consider adopting these or similar processes in an effort to reduce cycle times.

Fucci2a: a bicistronic cell cycle reporter that allows Cre mediated tissue specific expression in mice.

PubMed

Mort, Richard Lester; Ford, Matthew Jonathan; Sakaue-Sawano, Asako; Lindstrom, Nils Olof; Casadio, Angela; Douglas, Adam Thomas; Keighren, Margaret Anne; Hohenstein, Peter; Miyawaki, Atsushi; Jackson, Ian James

2014-01-01

Markers of cell cycle stage allow estimation of cell cycle dynamics in cell culture and during embryonic development. The Fucci system incorporates genetically encoded probes that highlight G1 and S/G2/M phases of the cell cycle allowing live imaging. However the available mouse models that incorporate Fucci are beset by problems with transgene inactivation, varying expression level, lack of conditional potential and/or the need to maintain separate transgenes-there is no transgenic mouse model that solves all these problems. To address these shortfalls we re-engineered the Fucci system to create 2 bicistronic Fucci variants incorporating both probes fused using the Thosea asigna virus 2A (T2A) self cleaving peptide. We characterize these variants in stable 3T3 cell lines. One of the variants (termed Fucci2a) faithfully recapitulated the nuclear localization and cell cycle stage specific florescence of the original Fucci system. We go on to develop a conditional mouse allele (R26Fucci2aR) carefully designed for high, inducible, ubiquitous expression allowing investigation of cell cycle status in single cell lineages within the developing embryo. We demonstrate the utility of R26Fucci2aR for live imaging by using high resolution confocal microscopy of ex vivo lung, kidney and neural crest development. Using our 3T3 system we describe and validate a method to estimate cell cycle times from relatively short time-lapse sequences that we then apply to our neural crest data. The Fucci2a system and the R26Fucci2aR mouse model are compelling new tools for the investigation of cell cycle dynamics in cell culture and during mouse embryonic development.

An activity-based methodology for operations cost analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Korsmeyer, David; Bilby, Curt; Frizzell, R. A.

1991-01-01

This report describes an activity-based cost estimation method, proposed for the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI), as an alternative to NASA's traditional mass-based cost estimation method. A case study demonstrates how the activity-based cost estimation technique can be used to identify the operations that have a significant impact on costs over the life cycle of the SEI. The case study yielded an operations cost of $101 billion for the 20-year span of the lunar surface operations for the Option 5a program architecture. In addition, the results indicated that the support and training costs for the missions were the greatest contributors to the annual cost estimates. A cost-sensitivity analysis of the cultural and architectural drivers determined that the length of training and the amount of support associated with the ground support personnel for mission activities are the most significant cost contributors.

Tropical dendrochemistry: A novel approach to estimate age and growth from ringless trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poussart, P. M.; Myneni, S. C. B.; Lanzirotti, A.

2006-09-01

Although tropical forests play an active role in the global carbon cycle and climate, their growth history remains poorly characterized compared to other ecosystems on the planet. Trees are prime candidates for the extraction of paleoclimate archives as they can be probed sub-annually, are widely distributed and can live for over 1400 years [Chambers et al., 1998]. However, dendrochronological techniques have found limited applications in the tropics because trees often lack visible growth rings (Whitmore, 1990). Alternative methods exist (dendrometry (DaSilva et al., 2002), radio- and stable isotopes (Evans and Schrag, 2004; Poussart et al., 2004; Poussart and Schrag, 2005), but the derived records are either of short-duration, lack seasonal resolution or are prohibitively labor intensive to produce. Here, we show the first X-ray microprobe synchrotron record of calcium (Ca) from a ringless Miliusa velutina tree from Thailand and use it to estimate the tree's age and growth history. The Ca age model agrees within <=2 years of bomb-radiocarbon age estimates and confirms that the cycles are seasonal. The amplitude of the Ca annual cycle is correlated significantly with growth and annual Ca maxima correlate with the amount of dry season rainfall. Synchrotron measurements are fast and producing sufficient numbers of replicated multi-century tropical dendrochemical climate records now seems analytically feasible.

Coupling Computer-Aided Process Simulation and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A methodology is described for developing a gate-to-gate life cycle inventory (LCI) of a chemical manufacturing process to support the application of life cycle assessment in the design and regulation of sustainable chemicals. The inventories were derived by first applying process design and simulation of develop a process flow diagram describing the energy and basic material flows of the system. Additional techniques developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for estimating uncontrolled emissions from chemical processing equipment were then applied to obtain a detailed emission profile for the process. Finally, land use for the process was estimated using a simple sizing model. The methodology was applied to a case study of acetic acid production based on the Cativa tm process. The results reveal improvements in the qualitative LCI for acetic acid production compared to commonly used databases and top-down methodologies. The modeling techniques improve the quantitative LCI results for inputs and uncontrolled emissions. With provisions for applying appropriate emission controls, the proposed method can provide an estimate of the LCI that can be used for subsequent life cycle assessments. As part of its mission, the Agency is tasked with overseeing the use of chemicals in commerce. This can include consideration of a chemical's potential impact on health and safety, resource conservation, clean air and climate change, clean water, and sustainable

Cholera Epidemics of the Past Offer New Insights Into an Old Enemy

PubMed Central

Phelps, Matthew; Perner, Mads Linnet; Pitzer, Virginia E; Andreasen, Viggo; Jensen, Peter K M; Simonsen, Lone

2018-01-01

Abstract Background Although cholera is considered the quintessential long-cycle waterborne disease, studies have emphasized the existence of short-cycle (food, household) transmission. We investigated singular Danish cholera epidemics (in 1853) to elucidate epidemiological parameters and modes of spread. Methods Using time series data from cities with different water systems, we estimated the intrinsic transmissibility (R0). Accessing cause-specific mortality data, we studied clinical severity and age-specific impact. From physicians’ narratives we established transmission chains and estimated serial intervals. Results Epidemics were seeded by travelers from cholera-affected cities; initial transmission chains involving household members and caretakers ensued. Cholera killed 3.4%–8.9% of the populations, with highest mortality among seniors (16%) and lowest in children (2.7%). Transmissibility (R0) was 1.7–2.6 and the serial interval was estimated at 3.7 days (95% confidence interval, 2.9–4.7 days). The case fatality ratio (CFR) was high (54%–68%); using R0 we computed an adjusted CFR of 4%–5%. Conclusions Short-cycle transmission was likely critical to early secondary transmission in historic Danish towns. The outbreaks resembled the contemporary Haiti outbreak with respect to transmissibility, age patterns, and CFR, suggesting a role for broader hygiene/sanitation interventions to control contemporary outbreaks. PMID:29165706

Life cycle water consumption and wastewater generation impacts of a Marcellus shale gas well.

PubMed

Jiang, Mohan; Hendrickson, Chris T; VanBriesen, Jeanne M

2014-01-01

This study estimates the life cycle water consumption and wastewater generation impacts of a Marcellus shale gas well from its construction to end of life. Direct water consumption at the well site was assessed by analysis of data from approximately 500 individual well completion reports collected in 2010 by the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources. Indirect water consumption for supply chain production at each life cycle stage of the well was estimated using the economic input-output life cycle assessment (EIO-LCA) method. Life cycle direct and indirect water quality pollution impacts were assessed and compared using the tool for the reduction and assessment of chemical and other environmental impacts (TRACI). Wastewater treatment cost was proposed as an additional indicator for water quality pollution impacts from shale gas well wastewater. Four water management scenarios for Marcellus shale well wastewater were assessed: current conditions in Pennsylvania; complete discharge; direct reuse and desalination; and complete desalination. The results show that under the current conditions, an average Marcellus shale gas well consumes 20,000 m(3) (with a range from 6700 to 33,000 m(3)) of freshwater per well over its life cycle excluding final gas utilization, with 65% direct water consumption at the well site and 35% indirect water consumption across the supply chain production. If all flowback and produced water is released into the environment without treatment, direct wastewater from a Marcellus shale gas well is estimated to have 300-3000 kg N-eq eutrophication potential, 900-23,000 kg 2,4D-eq freshwater ecotoxicity potential, 0-370 kg benzene-eq carcinogenic potential, and 2800-71,000 MT toluene-eq noncarcinogenic potential. The potential toxicity of the chemicals in the wastewater from the well site exceeds those associated with supply chain production, except for carcinogenic effects. If all the Marcellus shale well wastewater is treated to surface discharge standards by desalination, $59,000-270,000 per well would be required. The life cycle study results indicate that when gas end use is not considered hydraulic fracturing is the largest contributor to the life cycle water impacts of a Marcellus shale gas well.

Health Impact Modelling of Active Travel Visions for England and Wales Using an Integrated Transport and Health Impact Modelling Tool (ITHIM)

PubMed Central

Woodcock, James; Givoni, Moshe; Morgan, Andrei Scott

2013-01-01

Background Achieving health benefits while reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transport offers a potential policy win-win; the magnitude of potential benefits, however, is likely to vary. This study uses an Integrated Transport and Health Impact Modelling tool (ITHIM) to evaluate the health and environmental impacts of high walking and cycling transport scenarios for English and Welsh urban areas outside London. Methods Three scenarios with increased walking and cycling and lower car use were generated based upon the Visions 2030 Walking and Cycling project. Changes to carbon dioxide emissions were estimated by environmental modelling. Health impact assessment modelling was used to estimate changes in Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) resulting from changes in exposure to air pollution, road traffic injury risk, and physical activity. We compare the findings of the model with results generated using the World Health Organization's Health Economic Assessment of Transport (HEAT) tools. Results This study found considerable reductions in disease burden under all three scenarios, with the largest health benefits attributed to reductions in ischemic heart disease. The pathways that produced the largest benefits were, in order, physical activity, road traffic injuries, and air pollution. The choice of dose response relationship for physical activity had a large impact on the size of the benefits. Modelling the impact on all-cause mortality rather than through individual diseases suggested larger benefits. Using the best available evidence we found fewer road traffic injuries for all scenarios compared with baseline but alternative assumptions suggested potential increases. Conclusions Methods to estimate the health impacts from transport related physical activity and injury risk are in their infancy; this study has demonstrated an integration of transport and health impact modelling approaches. The findings add to the case for a move from car transport to walking and cycling, and have implications for empirical and modelling research. PMID:23326315

Analysis of Ageing Effect on Li-Polymer Batteries

PubMed Central

Barcellona, Simone; Brenna, Morris; Foiadelli, Federica; Longo, Michela; Piegari, Luigi

2015-01-01

Lithium-ion batteries are a key technology for current and future energy storage in mobile and stationary application. In particular, they play an important role in the electrification of mobility and therefore the battery lifetime prediction is a fundamental aspect for successful market introduction. Numerous studies developed ageing models capable of predicting battery life span. Most of the previous works compared the effect of the ageing factors to a battery's cycle life. These cycles are identical, which is not the case for electric vehicles applications. Indeed, most of the available information is based on results from laboratory testing, under very controlled environments, and using ageing protocols, which may not correctly reflect the actual utilization. For this reason, it is important to link the effect of duty cycles with the ageing of the batteries. This paper proposes a simple method to investigate the effect of the duty cycle on the batteries lifetime through tests performed on different cells for different kinds of cycle. In this way, a generic complex cycle can be seen as a composition of elemental cycles by means of Rainflow procedures. Consequently, the ageing due to any cycle can be estimated starting from the knowledge of simpler cycles. PMID:26236775

Gonadosomatic index and fecundity of Lower Missouri and Middle Mississippi River endangered pallid sturgeon estimated using minimally invasive techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Albers, J.L.; Wildhaber, M.L.; DeLonay, A.J.

2013-01-01

Minimally invasive, non-lethal methods of ultrasonography were used to assess sex, egg diameter, fecundity, gonad volume, and gonadosomatic index, as well as endoscopy to visually assess the reproductive stage of Scaphirhynchus albus. Estimated mean egg diameters of 2.202 ± 0.187 mm and mean fecundity of 44 531 ± 23 940 eggs were similar to previous studies using invasive techniques. Mean S. albus gonadosomatic indices (GSI) for reproductive and non-reproductive females were 16.16 and 1.26%, respectively, while reproductive and non-reproductive male GSI were 2.00 and 0.43%, respectively. There was no relationship between hybrid status or capture location and GSI. Mean fecundity was 48.5% higher than hatchery spawn estimates. Fecundity increased as fork length increased but did so more dramatically in the upper river kilometers of the Missouri River. By examining multiple fish over multiple years, the reproductive cycle periodicity for hatchery female S. albus was found to be 2–4 years and river dwelling males 1–4 years. The use of ultrasonic and endoscopic methods in combination was shown to be helpful in tracking individual gonad characteristics over multi-year reproductive cycles.

Improved Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of Crop Production at the Catchment Scale via a Process-Based Nitrogen Simulation Model.

PubMed

Liao, Wenjie; van der Werf, Hayo M G; Salmon-Monviola, Jordy

2015-09-15

One of the major challenges in environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) of crop production is the nonlinearity between nitrogen (N) fertilizer inputs and on-site N emissions resulting from complex biogeochemical processes. A few studies have addressed this nonlinearity by combining process-based N simulation models with LCA, but none accounted for nitrate (NO3(-)) flows across fields. In this study, we present a new method, TNT2-LCA, that couples the topography-based simulation of nitrogen transfer and transformation (TNT2) model with LCA, and compare the new method with a current LCA method based on a French life cycle inventory database. Application of the two methods to a case study of crop production in a catchment in France showed that, compared to the current method, TNT2-LCA allows delineation of more appropriate temporal limits when developing data for on-site N emissions associated with specific crops in this catchment. It also improves estimates of NO3(-) emissions by better consideration of agricultural practices, soil-climatic conditions, and spatial interactions of NO3(-) flows across fields, and by providing predicted crop yield. The new method presented in this study provides improved LCA of crop production at the catchment scale.

Choice of mineral fertilizer substitution principle strongly influences LCA environmental benefits of nutrient cycling in the agri-food system.

PubMed

Hanserud, Ola Stedje; Cherubini, Francesco; Øgaard, Anne Falk; Müller, Daniel B; Brattebø, Helge

2018-02-15

Increased nutrient cycling in the agri-food system is a way to achieve a healthier nutrient stewardship and more sustainable food production. In life cycle assessment (LCA) studies, use of recycled fertilizer products is often credited by the substitution method, which subtracts the environmental burdens associated with avoided production of mineral fertilizer from the system under study. The environmental benefits from avoided fertilizer production can make an important contribution to the results, but different calculation principles and often implicit assumptions are used to estimate the amount of avoided mineral fertilizer. This may hinder comparisons between studies. The present study therefore examines how the choice of substitution principles influences LCA results. Three different substitution principles, called one-to-one, maintenance, and adjusted maintenance, are identified, and we test the importance of these in a case study on cattle slurry management. We show that the inventory of avoided mineral fertilizer varies greatly when the different principles are applied, with strong influences on two-thirds of LCA impact categories. With the one-to-one principle, there is a risk of systematically over-estimating the environmental benefits from nutrient cycling. In a sensitivity analysis we show that the difference between the principles is closely related to the application rate and levels of residual nutrients in the soil. We recommend that LCA practitioners first and foremost state and justify the substitution method they use, in order to increase transparency and comparability with other studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coastal ocean and shelf-sea biogeochemical cycling of trace elements and isotopes: lessons learned from GEOTRACES

PubMed Central

Lam, Phoebe J.; Lohan, Maeve C.; Kwon, Eun Young; Hatje, Vanessa; Shiller, Alan M.; Cutter, Gregory A.; Thomas, Alex; Milne, Angela; Thomas, Helmuth; Andersson, Per S.; Porcelli, Don; Tanaka, Takahiro; Geibert, Walter; Dehairs, Frank; Garcia-Orellana, Jordi

2016-01-01

Continental shelves and shelf seas play a central role in the global carbon cycle. However, their importance with respect to trace element and isotope (TEI) inputs to ocean basins is less well understood. Here, we present major findings on shelf TEI biogeochemistry from the GEOTRACES programme as well as a proof of concept for a new method to estimate shelf TEI fluxes. The case studies focus on advances in our understanding of TEI cycling in the Arctic, transformations within a major river estuary (Amazon), shelf sediment micronutrient fluxes and basin-scale estimates of submarine groundwater discharge. The proposed shelf flux tracer is 228-radium (T1/2 = 5.75 yr), which is continuously supplied to the shelf from coastal aquifers, sediment porewater exchange and rivers. Model-derived shelf 228Ra fluxes are combined with TEI/ 228Ra ratios to quantify ocean TEI fluxes from the western North Atlantic margin. The results from this new approach agree well with previous estimates for shelf Co, Fe, Mn and Zn inputs and exceed published estimates of atmospheric deposition by factors of approximately 3–23. Lastly, recommendations are made for additional GEOTRACES process studies and coastal margin-focused section cruises that will help refine the model and provide better insight on the mechanisms driving shelf-derived TEI fluxes to the ocean. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Biological and climatic impacts of ocean trace element chemistry’. PMID:29035267

Coastal ocean and shelf-sea biogeochemical cycling of trace elements and isotopes: lessons learned from GEOTRACES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charette, Matthew A.; Lam, Phoebe J.; Lohan, Maeve C.; Kwon, Eun Young; Hatje, Vanessa; Jeandel, Catherine; Shiller, Alan M.; Cutter, Gregory A.; Thomas, Alex; Boyd, Philip W.; Homoky, William B.; Milne, Angela; Thomas, Helmuth; Andersson, Per S.; Porcelli, Don; Tanaka, Takahiro; Geibert, Walter; Dehairs, Frank; Garcia-Orellana, Jordi

2016-11-01

Continental shelves and shelf seas play a central role in the global carbon cycle. However, their importance with respect to trace element and isotope (TEI) inputs to ocean basins is less well understood. Here, we present major findings on shelf TEI biogeochemistry from the GEOTRACES programme as well as a proof of concept for a new method to estimate shelf TEI fluxes. The case studies focus on advances in our understanding of TEI cycling in the Arctic, transformations within a major river estuary (Amazon), shelf sediment micronutrient fluxes and basin-scale estimates of submarine groundwater discharge. The proposed shelf flux tracer is 228-radium (T1/2 = 5.75 yr), which is continuously supplied to the shelf from coastal aquifers, sediment porewater exchange and rivers. Model-derived shelf 228Ra fluxes are combined with TEI/ 228Ra ratios to quantify ocean TEI fluxes from the western North Atlantic margin. The results from this new approach agree well with previous estimates for shelf Co, Fe, Mn and Zn inputs and exceed published estimates of atmospheric deposition by factors of approximately 3-23. Lastly, recommendations are made for additional GEOTRACES process studies and coastal margin-focused section cruises that will help refine the model and provide better insight on the mechanisms driving shelf-derived TEI fluxes to the ocean. This article is part of the themed issue 'Biological and climatic impacts of ocean trace element chemistry'.

Coastal ocean and shelf-sea biogeochemical cycling of trace elements and isotopes: lessons learned from GEOTRACES.

PubMed

Charette, Matthew A; Lam, Phoebe J; Lohan, Maeve C; Kwon, Eun Young; Hatje, Vanessa; Jeandel, Catherine; Shiller, Alan M; Cutter, Gregory A; Thomas, Alex; Boyd, Philip W; Homoky, William B; Milne, Angela; Thomas, Helmuth; Andersson, Per S; Porcelli, Don; Tanaka, Takahiro; Geibert, Walter; Dehairs, Frank; Garcia-Orellana, Jordi

2016-11-28

Continental shelves and shelf seas play a central role in the global carbon cycle. However, their importance with respect to trace element and isotope (TEI) inputs to ocean basins is less well understood. Here, we present major findings on shelf TEI biogeochemistry from the GEOTRACES programme as well as a proof of concept for a new method to estimate shelf TEI fluxes. The case studies focus on advances in our understanding of TEI cycling in the Arctic, transformations within a major river estuary (Amazon), shelf sediment micronutrient fluxes and basin-scale estimates of submarine groundwater discharge. The proposed shelf flux tracer is 228-radium ( T 1/2  = 5.75 yr), which is continuously supplied to the shelf from coastal aquifers, sediment porewater exchange and rivers. Model-derived shelf 228 Ra fluxes are combined with TEI/ 228 Ra ratios to quantify ocean TEI fluxes from the western North Atlantic margin. The results from this new approach agree well with previous estimates for shelf Co, Fe, Mn and Zn inputs and exceed published estimates of atmospheric deposition by factors of approximately 3-23. Lastly, recommendations are made for additional GEOTRACES process studies and coastal margin-focused section cruises that will help refine the model and provide better insight on the mechanisms driving shelf-derived TEI fluxes to the ocean.This article is part of the themed issue 'Biological and climatic impacts of ocean trace element chemistry'. © 2015 The Authors.

STATISTICAL ESTIMATES OF VARIANCE FOR 15N ISOTOPE DILUTION MEASUREMENTS OF GROSS RATES OF NITROGEN CYCLE PROCESSES

EPA Science Inventory

It has been fifty years since Kirkham and Bartholmew (1954) presented the conceptual framework and derived the mathematical equations that formed the basis of the now commonly employed method of 15N isotope dilution. Although many advances in methodology and analysis have been ma...

Why we should talk about compliance with assisted reproductive technologies (ART): a systematic review and meta-analysis of ART compliance rates

PubMed Central

Gameiro, S.; Verhaak, C.M.; Kremer, J.A.M.; Boivin, J.

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND The goal of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to estimate the rate of compliance with assisted reproductive technologies (ART) and examine its relationship with treatment success rates. METHODS Six databases were systematically searched from 1978 to December 2011. Studies were included if they reported data on patient progression through three consecutive standard ART cycles. Compliance was estimated for the first three ART cycles (typical ART Regimen Compliance, TARC) and after the first and the second failed cycles (CAF1, CAF2). Treatment success rates for all patients who started ART and for those who fully complied with the three ART cycles were estimated. RESULTS Ten studies with data for 14 810 patients were included. TARC was 78.2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 68.8–85.3%], CAF1 was 81.8% (73.3–88.1%) and CAF2 was 75.3% (68.2–81.2%). The overall success rate was 42.7% (32.6–53.6%) for all patients starting ART and 57.9% (49.4–65.9%) for those who complied with three ART cycles. Compliance rates did not vary according to study quality, but TARC was higher for studies that reported data on doctor-censored patients versus those that did not (84.2% 95% CI 75.5–90.2 versus 70.6% 95% CI 58.3–80.5, P = 0.043). Analysis of funnel plots and the Egger test indicated publication bias for CAF1. CONCLUSIONS Findings from this meta-analysis should reassure clinics and patients that most patients are able to comply with three cycles of ART. Compliers could increase their chances of success by as much as 15%. A more detailed assessment of compliance requires monitoring long-term treatment trajectories through the creation of national registries. PMID:23178304

High-frequency productivity estimates for a lake from free-water CO2 concentration measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Provenzale, Maria; Ojala, Anne; Heiskanen, Jouni; Erkkilä, Kukka-Maaria; Mammarella, Ivan; Hari, Pertti; Vesala, Timo

2018-04-01

Lakes are important actors in biogeochemical cycles and a powerful natural source of CO2. However, they are not yet fully integrated in carbon global budgets, and the carbon cycle in the water is still poorly understood. In freshwater ecosystems, productivity studies have usually been carried out with traditional methods (bottle incubations, 14C technique), which are imprecise and have a poor temporal resolution. Consequently, our ability to quantify and predict the net ecosystem productivity (NEP) is limited: the estimates are prone to errors and the NEP cannot be parameterised from environmental variables. Here we expand the testing of a free-water method based on the direct measurement of the CO2 concentration in the water. The approach was first proposed in 2008, but was tested on a very short data set (3 days) under specific conditions (autumn turnover); despite showing promising results, this method has been neglected by the scientific community. We tested the method under different conditions (summer stratification, typical summer conditions for boreal dark-water lakes) and on a much longer data set (40 days), and quantitatively validated it comparing our data and productivity models. We were able to evaluate the NEP with a high temporal resolution (minutes) and found a very good agreement (R2 ≥ 0.71) with the models. We also estimated the parameters of the productivity-irradiance (PI) curves that allow the calculation of the NEP from irradiance and water temperature. Overall, our work shows that the approach is suitable for productivity studies under a wider range of conditions, and is an important step towards developing this method so that it becomes more widely used.

Estimating net changes in life-cycle emissions from adoption of emerging civil infrastructure technologies.

PubMed

Amponsah, Isaac; Harrison, Kenneth W; Rizos, Dimitris C; Ziehl, Paul H

2008-01-01

There is a net emissions change when adopting new materials for use in civil infrastructure design. To evaluate the total net emissions change, one must consider changes in manufacture and associated life-cycle emissions, as well as changes in the quantity of material required. In addition, in principle one should also consider any differences in costs of the two designs because cost savings can be applied to other economic activities with associated environmental impacts. In this paper, a method is presented that combines these considerations to permit an evaluation of the net change in emissions when considering the adoption of emerging technologies/materials for civil infrastructure. The method factors in data on differences between a standard and new material for civil infrastructure, material requirements as specified in designs using both materials, and price information. The life-cycle assessment approach known as economic input-output life-cycle assessment (EIO-LCA) is utilized. A brief background on EIO-LCA is provided because its use is central to the method. The methodology is demonstrated with analysis of a switch from carbon steel to high-performance steel in military bridge design. The results are compared with a simplistic analysis that accounts for the weight reduction afforded by use of the high-performance steel but assuming no differences in manufacture.

A Driving Cycle Detection Approach Using Map Service API

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Lei; Gonder, Jeffrey D

Following advancements in smartphone and portable global positioning system (GPS) data collection, wearable GPS data have realized extensive use in transportation surveys and studies. The task of detecting driving cycles (driving or car-mode trajectory segments) from wearable GPS data has been the subject of much research. Specifically, distinguishing driving cycles from other motorized trips (such as taking a bus) is the main research problem in this paper. Many mode detection methods only focus on raw GPS speed data while some studies apply additional information, such as geographic information system (GIS) data, to obtain better detection performance. Procuring and maintaining dedicatedmore » road GIS data are costly and not trivial, whereas the technical maturity and broad use of map service application program interface (API) queries offers opportunities for mode detection tasks. The proposed driving cycle detection method takes advantage of map service APIs to obtain high-quality car-mode API route information and uses a trajectory segmentation algorithm to find the best-matched API route. The car-mode API route data combined with the actual route information, including the actual mode information, are used to train a logistic regression machine learning model, which estimates car modes and non-car modes with probability rates. The experimental results show promise for the proposed method's ability to detect vehicle mode accurately.« less

[Measurement and estimation of grassland evapotranspiration in a mountainous region at the upper reach of Heihe River basin, China].

PubMed

Yang, Yong; Chen, Ren-sheng; Song, Yao-xuan; Liu, Jun-feng; Han, Chun-tan; Liu, Zhang-wen

2013-04-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important component of water cycle, but its measurement in high altitude mountainous region is quite difficult, inducing the insufficient understanding on the actual ET in high altitude mountainous region and the effects of ET on this region' s water cycle. In this paper, two small type weighing mini-lysimeters were applied to measure the daily ET in a piece of grassland in a high altitude mountainous region of the Heihe River basin from July 1st, 2009 to June 30th, 2010. Based on the measured data, the methods of FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (F-P-M), Priestley-Taylor (P-T), and Hargreaves-Samani (H-S) were employed to estimate the ET to analyze the applicability of the three methods for the mountainous region, and the pan coefficient at the measurement spots was discussed. During the measurement period, the total annual ET at the measurement spots was 439.9 mm, accounting for 96.5% of the precipitation in the same period, and the ET showed an obvious seasonal distribution, being 389. 3 mm in May-October, accounting for 88. 5% of the annual value. All the three methods could be well applied to estimate the summer ET but not the winter ET, and their applicability followed the sequence of P-T > F-P-M > H-S. At the measurement spots, the daily pan coefficient in summer was 0.7-0. 8, while that in winter was quite variable.

A Self-Affine Multi-Fractal Wave/Turbulence Discrimination Method Using Data from Single Point Fast Response Sensors in a Nocturnal Atmospheric Boundary Layer

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-04-10

and passive tracer concentrations, and their cross correlations have generally been used to estimate the magnitude of dispersive atmospheric transport...of gravity waves and turbulence. . 10 III. METHODS .......... ........................ 12 A. Data .......... ........................ 12 B. Analysis ...unstable, i.e., strange. For waves or even limit cycle motion about fixed attractors, self-similarity does not occur. Pertinent to time series analysis , this

Objectivity and validity of EMG method in estimating anaerobic threshold.

PubMed

Kang, S-K; Kim, J; Kwon, M; Eom, H

2014-08-01

The purposes of this study were to verify and compare the performances of anaerobic threshold (AT) point estimates among different filtering intervals (9, 15, 20, 25, 30 s) and to investigate the interrelationships of AT point estimates obtained by ventilatory threshold (VT) and muscle fatigue thresholds using electromyographic (EMG) activity during incremental exercise on a cycle ergometer. 69 untrained male university students, yet pursuing regular exercise voluntarily participated in this study. The incremental exercise protocol was applied with a consistent stepwise increase in power output of 20 watts per minute until exhaustion. AT point was also estimated in the same manner using V-slope program with gas exchange parameters. In general, the estimated values of AT point-time computed by EMG method were more consistent across 5 filtering intervals and demonstrated higher correlations among themselves when compared with those values obtained by VT method. The results found in the present study suggest that the EMG signals could be used as an alternative or a new option in estimating AT point. Also the proposed computing procedure implemented in Matlab for the analysis of EMG signals appeared to be valid and reliable as it produced nearly identical values and high correlations with VT estimates. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Real-Time PCR Quantification Using A Variable Reaction Efficiency Model

PubMed Central

Platts, Adrian E.; Johnson, Graham D.; Linnemann, Amelia K.; Krawetz, Stephen A.

2008-01-01

Quantitative real-time PCR remains a cornerstone technique in gene expression analysis and sequence characterization. Despite the importance of the approach to experimental biology the confident assignment of reaction efficiency to the early cycles of real-time PCR reactions remains problematic. Considerable noise may be generated where few cycles in the amplification are available to estimate peak efficiency. An alternate approach that uses data from beyond the log-linear amplification phase is explored with the aim of reducing noise and adding confidence to efficiency estimates. PCR reaction efficiency is regressed to estimate the per-cycle profile of an asymptotically departed peak efficiency, even when this is not closely approximated in the measurable cycles. The process can be repeated over replicates to develop a robust estimate of peak reaction efficiency. This leads to an estimate of the maximum reaction efficiency that may be considered primer-design specific. Using a series of biological scenarios we demonstrate that this approach can provide an accurate estimate of initial template concentration. PMID:18570886

Life cycle inventory energy consumption and emissions for biodiesel versus petroleum diesel fueled construction vehicles.

PubMed

Pang, Shih-Hao; Frey, H Christopher; Rasdorf, William J

2009-08-15

Substitution of soy-based biodiesel fuels for petroleum diesel will alter life cycle emissions for construction vehicles. A life cycle inventory was used to estimate fuel cycle energy consumption and emissions of selected pollutants and greenhouse gases. Real-world measurements using a portable emission measurement system (PEMS) were made forfive backhoes, four front-end loaders, and six motor graders on both fuels from which fuel consumption and tailpipe emission factors of CO, HC, NO(x), and PM were estimated. Life cycle fossil energy reductions are estimated it 9% for B20 and 42% for B100 versus petroleum diesel based on the current national energy mix. Fuel cycle emissions will contribute a larger share of total life cycle emissions as new engines enter the in-use fleet. The average differences in life cycle emissions for B20 versus diesel are: 3.5% higher for NO(x); 11.8% lower for PM, 1.6% higher for HC, and 4.1% lower for CO. Local urban tailpipe emissions are estimated to be 24% lower for HC, 20% lower for CO, 17% lower for PM, and 0.9% lower for NO(x). Thus, there are environmental trade-offs such as for rural vs urban areas. The key sources of uncertainty in the B20 LCI are vehicle emission factors.

Parametric analysis of closed cycle magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) power plants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Owens, W.; Berg, R.; Murthy, R.; Patten, J.

1981-01-01

A parametric analysis of closed cycle MHD power plants was performed which studied the technical feasibility, associated capital cost, and cost of electricity for the direct combustion of coal or coal derived fuel. Three reference plants, differing primarily in the method of coal conversion utilized, were defined. Reference Plant 1 used direct coal fired combustion while Reference Plants 2 and 3 employed on site integrated gasifiers. Reference Plant 2 used a pressurized gasifier while Reference Plant 3 used a ""state of the art' atmospheric gasifier. Thirty plant configurations were considered by using parametric variations from the Reference Plants. Parametric variations include the type of coal (Montana Rosebud or Illinois No. 6), clean up systems (hot or cold gas clean up), on or two stage atmospheric or pressurized direct fired coal combustors, and six different gasifier systems. Plant sizes ranged from 100 to 1000 MWe. Overall plant performance was calculated using two methodologies. In one task, the channel performance was assumed and the MHD topping cycle efficiencies were based on the assumed values. A second task involved rigorous calculations of channel performance (enthalpy extraction, isentropic efficiency and generator output) that verified the original (task one) assumptions. Closed cycle MHD capital costs were estimated for the task one plants; task two cost estimates were made for the channel and magnet only.

Complete Streets and Adult Bicyclist Fatalities: Applying G-Computation to Evaluate an Intervention That Affects the Size of a Population at Risk.

PubMed

Mooney, Stephen J; Magee, Caroline; Dang, Kolena; Leonard, Julie C; Yang, Jingzhen; Rivara, Frederick P; Ebel, Beth E; Rowhani-Rahbar, Ali; Quistberg, D Alex

2018-05-14

"Complete Streets" policies require transportation engineers to make provisions for pedestrians, cyclists and transit users. These policies may make bicycling safer for individual cyclists while increasing overall bicycle fatalities if more individuals cycle due to improved infrastructure. We merged county-level records of Complete Streets policies with Fatality Analysis Reporting System counts of cyclist fatalities occurring between January 2000 and December 2015. Because comprehensive county cycling estimates were not available, we used bicycle commute estimates from the American Community Survey and US Census as a proxy for the cycling population, and limited analysis to 183 counties (accounting for over half the US population) for which cycle commute estimates were consistently non-zero. We used G-computation to estimate the effect of policies on overall cyclist fatalities while also accounting for potential policy effects on the size of the cycling population. Over 16 years, 5,254 cyclists died in these counties, representing 34 fatalities per 100,000 cyclist-years. We estimated that Complete Streets policies made cycling safer, averting 0.6 fatalities per 100,000 cyclist-years (95% CI: 0.3, 1.0) by encouraging a 2.4% increase in cycling and a 0.7% increase in cyclist fatalities. G-computation is a useful tool for understanding policy impact on risk and exposure.

The Determination of the Large-Scale Circulation of the Pacific Ocean from Satellite Altimetry using Model Green's Functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stammer, Detlef; Wunsch, Carl

1996-01-01

A Green's function method for obtaining an estimate of the ocean circulation using both a general circulation model and altimetric data is demonstrated. The fundamental assumption is that the model is so accurate that the differences between the observations and the model-estimated fields obey a linear dynamics. In the present case, the calculations are demonstrated for model/data differences occurring on very a large scale, where the linearization hypothesis appears to be a good one. A semi-automatic linearization of the Bryan/Cox general circulation model is effected by calculating the model response to a series of isolated (in both space and time) geostrophically balanced vortices. These resulting impulse responses or 'Green's functions' then provide the kernels for a linear inverse problem. The method is first demonstrated with a set of 'twin experiments' and then with real data spanning the entire model domain and a year of TOPEX/POSEIDON observations. Our present focus is on the estimate of the time-mean and annual cycle of the model. Residuals of the inversion/assimilation are largest in the western tropical Pacific, and are believed to reflect primarily geoid error. Vertical resolution diminishes with depth with 1 year of data. The model mean is modified such that the subtropical gyre is weakened by about 1 cm/s and the center of the gyre shifted southward by about 10 deg. Corrections to the flow field at the annual cycle suggest that the dynamical response is weak except in the tropics, where the estimated seasonal cycle of the low-latitude current system is of the order of 2 cm/s. The underestimation of observed fluctuations can be related to the inversion on the coarse spatial grid, which does not permit full resolution of the tropical physics. The methodology is easily extended to higher resolution, to use of spatially correlated errors, and to other data types.

Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

2013-01-01

Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

Weekly Cycles in Daily Report Data: An Overlooked Issue.

PubMed

Liu, Yu; West, Stephen G

2016-10-01

Daily diaries and other everyday experience methods are increasingly used to study relationships between two time-varying variables X and Y. Although daily data potentially often have weekly cyclical patterns (e.g., stress may be higher on weekdays and lower on weekends), the majority of daily diary studies have ignored this possibility. In this study, we investigated the effect of ignoring existing weekly cycles. We reanalyzed an empirical dataset (stress and alcohol consumption) and performed Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the impact of omitting weekly cycles. In the empirical dataset, ignoring cycles led to the inference of a significant within-person X-Y relation whereas modeling cycles suggested that this relationship did not exist. Simulation results indicated that ignoring cycles that existed in both X and Y led to bias in the estimated within-person X-Y relationship. The amount and direction of bias depended on the magnitude of the cycles, magnitude of the true within-person X-Y relation, and synchronization of the cycles. We encourage researchers conducting daily diary studies to address potential weekly cycles in their data. We provide guidelines for detecting and modeling cycles to remove their influence and discuss challenges of causal inference in daily experience studies. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Estimation of Groundwater Recharge in a Japanese Headwater Area by Intensive Collaboration of Field Survey and Modelling Work

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yano, S.; Kondo, H.; Tawara, Y.; Yamada, T.; Mori, K.; Yoshida, A.; Tada, K.; Tsujimura, M.; Tokunaga, T.

2017-12-01

It is important to understand groundwater systems, including their recharge, flow, storage, discharge, and withdrawal, so that we can use groundwater resources efficiently and sustainably. To examine groundwater recharge, several methods have been discussed based on water balance estimation, in situ experiments, and hydrological tracers. However, few studies have developed a concrete framework for quantifying groundwater recharge rates in an undefined area. In this study, we established a robust method to quantitatively determine water cycles and estimate the groundwater recharge rate by combining the advantages of field surveys and model simulations. We replicated in situ hydrogeological observations and three-dimensional modeling in a mountainous basin area in Japan. We adopted a general-purpose terrestrial fluid-flow simulator (GETFLOWS) to develop a geological model and simulate the local water cycle. Local data relating to topology, geology, vegetation, land use, climate, and water use were collected from the existing literature and observations to assess the spatiotemporal variations of the water balance from 2011 to 2013. The characteristic structures of geology and soils, as found through field surveys, were parameterized for incorporation into the model. The simulated results were validated using observed groundwater levels and resulted in a Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Coefficient of 0.92. The results suggested that local groundwater flows across the watershed boundary and that the groundwater recharge rate, defined as the flux of water reaching the local unconfined groundwater table, has values similar to the level estimated in the `the lower soil layers on a long-term basis. This innovative method enables us to quantify the groundwater recharge rate and its spatiotemporal variability with high accuracy, which contributes to establishing a foundation for sustainable groundwater management.

Actigraphy assessments of circadian sleep-wake cycles in the Vegetative and Minimally Conscious States

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The Vegetative and Minimally Conscious States (VS; MCS) are characterized by absent or highly disordered signs of awareness alongside preserved sleep-wake cycles. According to international diagnostic guidelines, sleep-wake cycles are assessed by means of observations of variable periods of eye-opening and eye-closure. However, there is little empirical evidence for true circadian sleep-wake cycling in these patients, and there have been no large-scale investigations of the validity of this diagnostic criterion. Methods We measured the circadian sleep-wake rhythms of 55 VS and MCS patients by means of wrist actigraphy, an indirect method that is highly correlated with polysomnographic estimates of sleeping/waking. Results Contrary to the diagnostic guidelines, a significant proportion of patients did not exhibit statistically reliable sleep-wake cycles. The circadian rhythms of VS patients were significantly more impaired than those of MCS patients, as were the circadian rhythms of patients with non-traumatic injuries relative to those with traumatic injuries. The reliability of the circadian rhythms were significantly predicted by the patients' levels of visual and motor functioning, consistent with the putative biological generators of these rhythms. Conclusions The high variability across diagnoses and etiologies highlights the need for improved guidelines for the assessment of sleep-wake cycles in VS and MCS, and advocates the use of actigraphy as an inexpensive and non-invasive alternative. PMID:23347467

What time is it? Deep learning approaches for circadian rhythms.

PubMed

Agostinelli, Forest; Ceglia, Nicholas; Shahbaba, Babak; Sassone-Corsi, Paolo; Baldi, Pierre

2016-06-15

Circadian rhythms date back to the origins of life, are found in virtually every species and every cell, and play fundamental roles in functions ranging from metabolism to cognition. Modern high-throughput technologies allow the measurement of concentrations of transcripts, metabolites and other species along the circadian cycle creating novel computational challenges and opportunities, including the problems of inferring whether a given species oscillate in circadian fashion or not, and inferring the time at which a set of measurements was taken. We first curate several large synthetic and biological time series datasets containing labels for both periodic and aperiodic signals. We then use deep learning methods to develop and train BIO_CYCLE, a system to robustly estimate which signals are periodic in high-throughput circadian experiments, producing estimates of amplitudes, periods, phases, as well as several statistical significance measures. Using the curated data, BIO_CYCLE is compared to other approaches and shown to achieve state-of-the-art performance across multiple metrics. We then use deep learning methods to develop and train BIO_CLOCK to robustly estimate the time at which a particular single-time-point transcriptomic experiment was carried. In most cases, BIO_CLOCK can reliably predict time, within approximately 1 h, using the expression levels of only a small number of core clock genes. BIO_CLOCK is shown to work reasonably well across tissue types, and often with only small degradation across conditions. BIO_CLOCK is used to annotate most mouse experiments found in the GEO database with an inferred time stamp. All data and software are publicly available on the CircadiOmics web portal: circadiomics.igb.uci.edu/ fagostin@uci.edu or pfbaldi@uci.edu Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

Ground-based remote sensing of tropospheric water vapour isotopologues within the project MUSICA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, M.; Barthlott, S.; Hase, F.; González, Y.; Yoshimura, K.; García, O. E.; Sepúlveda, E.; Gomez-Pelaez, A.; Gisi, M.; Kohlhepp, R.; Dohe, S.; Blumenstock, T.; Wiegele, A.; Christner, E.; Strong, K.; Weaver, D.; Palm, M.; Deutscher, N. M.; Warneke, T.; Notholt, J.; Lejeune, B.; Demoulin, P.; Jones, N.; Griffith, D. W. T.; Smale, D.; Robinson, J.

2012-12-01

Within the project MUSICA (MUlti-platform remote Sensing of Isotopologues for investigating the Cycle of Atmospheric water), long-term tropospheric water vapour isotopologue data records are provided for ten globally distributed ground-based mid-infrared remote sensing stations of the NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change). We present a new method allowing for an extensive and straightforward characterisation of the complex nature of such isotopologue remote sensing datasets. We demonstrate that the MUSICA humidity profiles are representative for most of the troposphere with a vertical resolution ranging from about 2 km (in the lower troposphere) to 8 km (in the upper troposphere) and with an estimated precision of better than 10%. We find that the sensitivity with respect to the isotopologue composition is limited to the lower and middle troposphere, whereby we estimate a precision of about 30‰ for the ratio between the two isotopologues HD16O and H216O. The measurement noise, the applied atmospheric temperature profiles, the uncertainty in the spectral baseline, and the cross-dependence on humidity are the leading error sources. We introduce an a posteriori correction method of the cross-dependence on humidity, and we recommend applying it to isotopologue ratio remote sensing datasets in general. In addition, we present mid-infrared CO2 retrievals and use them for demonstrating the MUSICA network-wide data consistency. In order to indicate the potential of long-term isotopologue remote sensing data if provided with a well-documented quality, we present a climatology and compare it to simulations of an isotope incorporated AGCM (Atmospheric General Circulation Model). We identify differences in the multi-year mean and seasonal cycles that significantly exceed the estimated errors, thereby indicating deficits in the modeled atmospheric water cycle.

Ground-based remote sensing of tropospheric water vapour isotopologues within the project MUSICA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, M.; Barthlott, S.; Hase, F.; González, Y.; Yoshimura, K.; García, O. E.; Sepúlveda, E.; Gomez-Pelaez, A.; Gisi, M.; Kohlhepp, R.; Dohe, S.; Blumenstock, T.; Strong, K.; Weaver, D.; Palm, M.; Deutscher, N. M.; Warneke, T.; Notholt, J.; Lejeune, B.; Demoulin, P.; Jones, N.; Griffith, D. W. T.; Smale, D.; Robinson, J.

2012-08-01

Within the project MUSICA (MUlti-platform remote Sensing of Isotopologues for investigating the Cycle of Atmospheric water), long-term tropospheric water vapour isotopologues data records are provided for ten globally distributed ground-based mid-infrared remote sensing stations of the NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change). We present a new method allowing for an extensive and straightforward characterisation of the complex nature of such isotopologue remote sensing datasets. We demonstrate that the MUSICA humidity profiles are representative for most of the troposphere with a vertical resolution ranging from about 2 km (in the lower troposphere) to 8 km (in the upper troposphere) and with an estimated precision of better than 10%. We find that the sensitivity with respect to the isotopologue composition is limited to the lower and middle troposphere, whereby we estimate a precision of about 30‰ for the ratio between the two isotopologues HD16O and H216O. The measurement noise, the applied atmospheric temperature profiles, the uncertainty in the spectral baseline, and interferences from humidity are the leading error sources. We introduce an a posteriori correction method of the humidity interference error and we recommend applying it for isotopologue ratio remote sensing datasets in general. In addition, we present mid-infrared CO2 retrievals and use them for demonstrating the MUSICA network-wide data consistency. In order to indicate the potential of long-term isotopologue remote sensing data if provided with a well-documented quality, we present a climatology and compare it to simulations of an isotope incorporated AGCM (Atmospheric General Circulation Model). We identify differences in the multi-year mean and seasonal cycles that significantly exceed the estimated errors, thereby indicating deficits in the modeled atmospheric water cycle.

The risk of urban yellow fever resurgence in Aedes-infested American cities.

PubMed

Massad, Eduardo; Amaku, Marcos; Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra; Struchiner, Claudio José; Lopez, Luis Fernandez; Coelho, Giovanini; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento

2018-05-30

Aedes aegypti, historically known as yellow fever (YF) mosquito, transmits a great number of other viruses such as Dengue, West Nile, Chikungunya, Zika, Mayaro and perhaps Oropouche, among others. Well established in Africa and Asia, Aedes mosquitoes are now increasingly invading large parts of the American continent, and hence the risk of urban YF resurgence in the American cities should because of great concern to public health authorities. Although no new urban cycle of YF was reported in the Americas since the end of an Aedes eradication programme in the late 1950s, the high number of non-vaccinated individuals that visit endemic areas, that is, South American jungles where the sylvatic cycle of YF is transmitted by canopy mosquitoes, and return to Aedes-infested urban areas, increases the risk of resurgence of the urban cycle of YF. We present a method to estimate the risk of urban YF resurgence in dengue-endemic cities. This method consists in (1) to estimate the number of Aedes mosquitoes that explains a given dengue outbreak in a given region; (2) calculate the force of infection caused by the introduction of one infective individual per unit area in the endemic area under study; (3) using the above estimates, calculate the probability of at least one autochthonous YF case per unit area produced by one single viraemic traveller per unit area arriving from a YF endemic or epidemic sylvatic region at the city studied. We demonstrate that, provided the relative vector competence, here defined as the capacity to being infected and disseminate the virus, of Ae. aegypti is greater than 0.7 (with respect to dengue), one infected traveller can introduce urban YF in a dengue endemic area.

What time is it? Deep learning approaches for circadian rhythms

PubMed Central

Agostinelli, Forest; Ceglia, Nicholas; Shahbaba, Babak; Sassone-Corsi, Paolo; Baldi, Pierre

2016-01-01

Motivation: Circadian rhythms date back to the origins of life, are found in virtually every species and every cell, and play fundamental roles in functions ranging from metabolism to cognition. Modern high-throughput technologies allow the measurement of concentrations of transcripts, metabolites and other species along the circadian cycle creating novel computational challenges and opportunities, including the problems of inferring whether a given species oscillate in circadian fashion or not, and inferring the time at which a set of measurements was taken. Results: We first curate several large synthetic and biological time series datasets containing labels for both periodic and aperiodic signals. We then use deep learning methods to develop and train BIO_CYCLE, a system to robustly estimate which signals are periodic in high-throughput circadian experiments, producing estimates of amplitudes, periods, phases, as well as several statistical significance measures. Using the curated data, BIO_CYCLE is compared to other approaches and shown to achieve state-of-the-art performance across multiple metrics. We then use deep learning methods to develop and train BIO_CLOCK to robustly estimate the time at which a particular single-time-point transcriptomic experiment was carried. In most cases, BIO_CLOCK can reliably predict time, within approximately 1 h, using the expression levels of only a small number of core clock genes. BIO_CLOCK is shown to work reasonably well across tissue types, and often with only small degradation across conditions. BIO_CLOCK is used to annotate most mouse experiments found in the GEO database with an inferred time stamp. Availability and Implementation: All data and software are publicly available on the CircadiOmics web portal: circadiomics.igb.uci.edu/. Contacts: fagostin@uci.edu or pfbaldi@uci.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:27307647

48 CFR 434.001 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... total acquisition costs (for information technology, life cycle costs) are estimated to be $50 million or more, or (b) The system, regardless of estimated acquisition or life cycle costs, has been...

48 CFR 434.001 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... total acquisition costs (for information technology, life cycle costs) are estimated to be $50 million or more, or (b) The system, regardless of estimated acquisition or life cycle costs, has been...

48 CFR 434.001 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... total acquisition costs (for information technology, life cycle costs) are estimated to be $50 million or more, or (b) The system, regardless of estimated acquisition or life cycle costs, has been...

48 CFR 434.001 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... total acquisition costs (for information technology, life cycle costs) are estimated to be $50 million or more, or (b) The system, regardless of estimated acquisition or life cycle costs, has been...

Demographic estimation methods for plants with unobservable life-states

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kery, M.; Gregg, K.B.; Schaub, M.

2005-01-01

Demographic estimation of vital parameters in plants with an unobservable dormant state is complicated, because time of death is not known. Conventional methods assume that death occurs at a particular time after a plant has last been seen aboveground but the consequences of assuming a particular duration of dormancy have never been tested. Capture-recapture methods do not make assumptions about time of death; however, problems with parameter estimability have not yet been resolved. To date, a critical comparative assessment of these methods is lacking. We analysed data from a 10 year study of Cleistes bifaria, a terrestrial orchid with frequent dormancy, and compared demographic estimates obtained by five varieties of the conventional methods, and two capture-recapture methods. All conventional methods produced spurious unity survival estimates for some years or for some states, and estimates of demographic rates sensitive to the time of death assumption. In contrast, capture-recapture methods are more parsimonious in terms of assumptions, are based on well founded theory and did not produce spurious estimates. In Cleistes, dormant episodes lasted for 1-4 years (mean 1.4, SD 0.74). The capture-recapture models estimated ramet survival rate at 0.86 (SE~ 0.01), ranging from 0.77-0.94 (SEs # 0.1) in anyone year. The average fraction dormant was estimated at 30% (SE 1.5), ranging 16 -47% (SEs # 5.1) in anyone year. Multistate capture-recapture models showed that survival rates were positively related to precipitation in the current year, but transition rates were more strongly related to precipitation in the previous than in the current year, with more ramets going dormant following dry years. Not all capture-recapture models of interest have estimable parameters; for instance, without excavating plants in years when they do not appear aboveground, it is not possible to obtain independent timespecific survival estimates for dormant plants. We introduce rigorous computer algebra methods to identify the parameters that are estimable in principle. As life-states are a prominent feature in plant life cycles, multi state capture-recapture models are a natural framework for analysing population dynamics of plants with dormancy.

Estimation of the phase response curve from Parkinsonian tremor.

PubMed

Saifee, Tabish A; Edwards, Mark J; Kassavetis, Panagiotis; Gilbertson, Tom

2016-01-01

Phase response curves (PRCs), characterizing the response of an oscillator to weak external perturbation, have been estimated from a broad range of biological oscillators, including single neurons in vivo. PRC estimates, in turn, provide an intuitive insight into how oscillatory systems become entrained and how they can be desynchronized. Here, we explore the application of PRC theory to the case of Parkinsonian tremor. Initial attempts to establish a causal effect of subthreshold transcranial magnetic stimulation applied to primary motor cortex on the filtered tremor phase were unsuccessful. We explored the possible explanations of this and demonstrate that assumptions made when estimating the PRC in a traditional setting, such as a single neuron, are not arbitrary when applied to the case of tremor PRC estimation. We go on to extract the PRC of Parkinsonian tremor using an iterative method that requires varying the definition of the tremor cycle and estimating the PRC at multiple peristimulus time samples. Justification for this method is supported by estimates of PRC from simulated single neuron data. We provide an approach to estimating confidence limits for tremor PRC and discuss the interpretational caveats introduced by tremor harmonics and the intrinsic variability of the tremor's period. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

Estimation of the phase response curve from Parkinsonian tremor

PubMed Central

Saifee, Tabish A.; Edwards, Mark J.; Kassavetis, Panagiotis

2015-01-01

Phase response curves (PRCs), characterizing the response of an oscillator to weak external perturbation, have been estimated from a broad range of biological oscillators, including single neurons in vivo. PRC estimates, in turn, provide an intuitive insight into how oscillatory systems become entrained and how they can be desynchronized. Here, we explore the application of PRC theory to the case of Parkinsonian tremor. Initial attempts to establish a causal effect of subthreshold transcranial magnetic stimulation applied to primary motor cortex on the filtered tremor phase were unsuccessful. We explored the possible explanations of this and demonstrate that assumptions made when estimating the PRC in a traditional setting, such as a single neuron, are not arbitrary when applied to the case of tremor PRC estimation. We go on to extract the PRC of Parkinsonian tremor using an iterative method that requires varying the definition of the tremor cycle and estimating the PRC at multiple peristimulus time samples. Justification for this method is supported by estimates of PRC from simulated single neuron data. We provide an approach to estimating confidence limits for tremor PRC and discuss the interpretational caveats introduced by tremor harmonics and the intrinsic variability of the tremor's period. PMID:26561596

MPN estimation of qPCR target sequence recoveries from whole cell calibrator samples.

PubMed

Sivaganesan, Mano; Siefring, Shawn; Varma, Manju; Haugland, Richard A

2011-12-01

DNA extracts from enumerated target organism cells (calibrator samples) have been used for estimating Enterococcus cell equivalent densities in surface waters by a comparative cycle threshold (Ct) qPCR analysis method. To compare surface water Enterococcus density estimates from different studies by this approach, either a consistent source of calibrator cells must be used or the estimates must account for any differences in target sequence recoveries from different sources of calibrator cells. In this report we describe two methods for estimating target sequence recoveries from whole cell calibrator samples based on qPCR analyses of their serially diluted DNA extracts and most probable number (MPN) calculation. The first method employed a traditional MPN calculation approach. The second method employed a Bayesian hierarchical statistical modeling approach and a Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) simulation method to account for the uncertainty in these estimates associated with different individual samples of the cell preparations, different dilutions of the DNA extracts and different qPCR analytical runs. The two methods were applied to estimate mean target sequence recoveries per cell from two different lots of a commercially available source of enumerated Enterococcus cell preparations. The mean target sequence recovery estimates (and standard errors) per cell from Lot A and B cell preparations by the Bayesian method were 22.73 (3.4) and 11.76 (2.4), respectively, when the data were adjusted for potential false positive results. Means were similar for the traditional MPN approach which cannot comparably assess uncertainty in the estimates. Cell numbers and estimates of recoverable target sequences in calibrator samples prepared from the two cell sources were also used to estimate cell equivalent and target sequence quantities recovered from surface water samples in a comparative Ct method. Our results illustrate the utility of the Bayesian method in accounting for uncertainty, the high degree of precision attainable by the MPN approach and the need to account for the differences in target sequence recoveries from different calibrator sample cell sources when they are used in the comparative Ct method. Published by Elsevier B.V.

An Investment Level Decision Method to Secure Long-term Reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bamba, Satoshi; Yabe, Kuniaki; Seki, Tomomichi; Shibaya, Tetsuji

The slowdown in power demand increase and facility replacement causes the aging and lower reliability in power facility. And the aging is followed by the rapid increase of repair and replacement when many facilities reach their lifetime in future. This paper describes a method to estimate the repair and replacement costs in future by applying the life-cycle cost model and renewal theory to the historical data. This paper also describes a method to decide the optimum investment plan, which replaces facilities in the order of cost-effectiveness by setting replacement priority formula, and the minimum investment level to keep the reliability. Estimation examples applied to substation facilities show that the reasonable and leveled future cash-out can keep the reliability by lowering the percentage of replacements caused by fatal failures.

A modified micrometeorological gradient method for estimating O3 dry depositions over a forest canopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Z. Y.; Zhang, L.; Wang, X. M.; Munger, J. W.

2015-07-01

Small pollutant concentration gradients between levels above a plant canopy result in large uncertainties in estimated air-surface exchange fluxes when using existing micrometeorological gradient methods, including the aerodynamic gradient method (AGM) and the modified Bowen ratio method (MBR). A modified micrometeorological gradient method (MGM) is proposed in this study for estimating O3 dry deposition fluxes over a forest canopy using concentration gradients between a level above and a level below the canopy top, taking advantage of relatively large gradients between these levels due to significant pollutant uptake in the top layers of the canopy. The new method is compared with the AGM and MBR methods and is also evaluated using eddy-covariance (EC) flux measurements collected at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site, Massachusetts, during 1993-2000. All three gradient methods (AGM, MBR, and MGM) produced similar diurnal cycles of O3 dry deposition velocity (Vd(O3)) to the EC measurements, with the MGM method being the closest in magnitude to the EC measurements. The multi-year average Vd(O3) differed significantly between these methods, with the AGM, MBR, and MGM method being 2.28, 1.45, and 1.18 times that of the EC, respectively. Sensitivity experiments identified several input parameters for the MGM method as first-order parameters that affect the estimated Vd(O3). A 10% uncertainty in the wind speed attenuation coefficient or canopy displacement height can cause about 10% uncertainty in the estimated Vd(O3). An unrealistic leaf area density vertical profile can cause an uncertainty of a factor of 2.0 in the estimated Vd(O3). Other input parameters or formulas for stability functions only caused an uncertainly of a few percent. The new method provides an alternative approach to monitoring/estimating long-term deposition fluxes of similar pollutants over tall canopies.

A novel approach of battery pack state of health estimation using artificial intelligence optimization algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xu; Wang, Yujie; Liu, Chang; Chen, Zonghai

2018-02-01

An accurate battery pack state of health (SOH) estimation is important to characterize the dynamic responses of battery pack and ensure the battery work with safety and reliability. However, the different performances in battery discharge/charge characteristics and working conditions in battery pack make the battery pack SOH estimation difficult. In this paper, the battery pack SOH is defined as the change of battery pack maximum energy storage. It contains all the cells' information including battery capacity, the relationship between state of charge (SOC) and open circuit voltage (OCV), and battery inconsistency. To predict the battery pack SOH, the method of particle swarm optimization-genetic algorithm is applied in battery pack model parameters identification. Based on the results, a particle filter is employed in battery SOC and OCV estimation to avoid the noise influence occurring in battery terminal voltage measurement and current drift. Moreover, a recursive least square method is used to update cells' capacity. Finally, the proposed method is verified by the profiles of New European Driving Cycle and dynamic test profiles. The experimental results indicate that the proposed method can estimate the battery states with high accuracy for actual operation. In addition, the factors affecting the change of SOH is analyzed.

Kalman-variant estimators for state of charge in lithium-sulfur batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Propp, Karsten; Auger, Daniel J.; Fotouhi, Abbas; Longo, Stefano; Knap, Vaclav

2017-03-01

Lithium-sulfur batteries are now commercially available, offering high specific energy density, low production costs and high safety. However, there is no commercially-available battery management system for them, and there are no published methods for determining state of charge in situ. This paper describes a study to address this gap. The properties and behaviours of lithium-sulfur are briefly introduced, and the applicability of 'standard' lithium-ion state-of-charge estimation methods is explored. Open-circuit voltage methods and 'Coulomb counting' are found to have a poor fit for lithium-sulfur, and model-based methods, particularly recursive Bayesian filters, are identified as showing strong promise. Three recursive Bayesian filters are implemented: an extended Kalman filter (EKF), an unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and a particle filter (PF). These estimators are tested through practical experimentation, considering both a pulse-discharge test and a test based on the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC). Experimentation is carried out at a constant temperature, mirroring the environment expected in the authors' target automotive application. It is shown that the estimators, which are based on a relatively simple equivalent-circuit-network model, can deliver useful results. If the three estimators implemented, the unscented Kalman filter gives the most robust and accurate performance, with an acceptable computational effort.

A bicycle safety index for evaluating urban street facilities.

PubMed

Asadi-Shekari, Zohreh; Moeinaddini, Mehdi; Zaly Shah, Muhammad

2015-01-01

The objectives of this research are to conceptualize the Bicycle Safety Index (BSI) that considers all parts of the street and to propose a universal guideline with microscale details. A point system method comparing existing safety facilities to a defined standard is proposed to estimate the BSI. Two streets in Singapore and Malaysia are chosen to examine this model. The majority of previous measurements to evaluate street conditions for cyclists usually cannot cover all parts of streets, including segments and intersections. Previous models also did not consider all safety indicators and cycling facilities at a microlevel in particular. This study introduces a new concept of a practical BSI to complete previous studies using its practical, easy-to-follow, point system-based outputs. This practical model can be used in different urban settings to estimate the level of safety for cycling and suggest some improvements based on the standards.

Estimate of the effect of the 11-year solar activity cycle on the ozone content in the stratosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruzdev, A. N.

2014-09-01

Using spectral, cross-spectral, and regression methods, we analyzed the effect of the 11-year cycle of solar activity on the ozone content in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere via satellite measurement data obtained with the help of SBUV/SBUV2 instruments in 1978-2003. We revealed a high coherence between the ozone content and solar activity level on the solar cycle scale. In much of this area, the ozone content varies approximately in phase with the solar cycle; however, in areas of significant gradients of ozone mixing ratio in the middle stratosphere, the phase shift between ozone and solar oscillations can be considerable, up to π/2. This can be caused by dynamical processes. The altitude maxima of ozone sensitivity to the 11-year solar cycle were found in the upper vicinity of the stratopause (50-55 km), in the middle stratosphere (35-40 km), and the lower stratosphere (below 25 km). Maximal changes in ozone content in the solar cycle (up to 10% and more) were found in winter and spring in polar regions.

The mean time-limited crash rate of stock price

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yun-Xian; Li, Jiang-Cheng; Yang, Ai-Jun; Tang, Nian-Sheng

2017-05-01

In this article we investigate the occurrence of stock market crash in an economy cycle. Bayesian approach, Heston model and statistical-physical method are considered. Specifically, Heston model and an effective potential are employed to address the dynamic changes of stock price. Bayesian approach has been utilized to estimate the Heston model's unknown parameters. Statistical physical method is used to investigate the occurrence of stock market crash by calculating the mean time-limited crash rate. The real financial data from the Shanghai Composite Index is analyzed with the proposed methods. The mean time-limited crash rate of stock price is used to describe the occurrence of stock market crash in an economy cycle. The monotonous and nonmonotonous behaviors are observed in the behavior of the mean time-limited crash rate versus volatility of stock for various cross correlation coefficient between volatility and price. Also a minimum occurrence of stock market crash matching an optimal volatility is discovered.

Mass load estimation errors utilizing grab sampling strategies in a karst watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fogle, A.W.; Taraba, J.L.; Dinger, J.S.

2003-01-01

Developing a mass load estimation method appropriate for a given stream and constituent is difficult due to inconsistencies in hydrologic and constituent characteristics. The difficulty may be increased in flashy flow conditions such as karst. Many projects undertaken are constrained by budget and manpower and do not have the luxury of sophisticated sampling strategies. The objectives of this study were to: (1) examine two grab sampling strategies with varying sampling intervals and determine the error in mass load estimates, and (2) determine the error that can be expected when a grab sample is collected at a time of day when the diurnal variation is most divergent from the daily mean. Results show grab sampling with continuous flow to be a viable data collection method for estimating mass load in the study watershed. Comparing weekly, biweekly, and monthly grab sampling, monthly sampling produces the best results with this method. However, the time of day the sample is collected is important. Failure to account for diurnal variability when collecting a grab sample may produce unacceptable error in mass load estimates. The best time to collect a sample is when the diurnal cycle is nearest the daily mean.

Energy fluxes estimation in a juniper tree area of the Donana biological reserve through TSEB method and Landsat-5TM imagery

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Energy fluxes computing (actual evapotranspiration, net radiation, sensible heat and soil heat flux) are essential to improve the knowledge of the hydrological cycle, especially in natural vegetation covers. In this paper we present the first results of the energy fluxes modeling by means of the TSE...

Estimating daily Landsat-scale evapotranspiration over a managed pine plantation in North Carolina, USA using a data fusion method

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As a primary flux in the global water cycle, evapotranspiration (ET) connects hydrologic and biological processes and is directly affected by water management, land use change and climate change. The two source energy balance (TSEB) model has been widely applied to quantify field scale ET using sate...

Can uptake length in strams be determined by nutrient addition experiments? Results from an interbiome comparison study

Treesearch

P. J Mulholland; J. L. Tanks; J. R. Webster; W. B. Bowden; W. K Dodds; S. V. Gregory; N. B Grimm; J. L. Meriam; J. L. Meyer; B. J. Peterson; H. M. Valett; W. M. Wollheim

2002-01-01

Nutrient uptake length is an important parnmeter tor quantifying nutrient cycling in streams. Although nutrient tracer additions are the preierred method for measuring uptake length under ambient nutrient concentrations, short-term nutrient addition experiments have more irequently been used to estimate uptake length in streams. Theoretical analysis of the relationship...

Substrate-induced respiration in Puerto Rican soils: minimum glucose amendment

Treesearch

Marcela Zalamea; Grizelle Gonzalez

2007-01-01

Soil microbiota –usually quantified as microbial biomass –is a key component of terrestrial ecosystems, regulating nutrient cycling and organic matter turnover. Among the several methods developed for estimating soil microbial biomass, Substrate-Induced Respiration (SIR) is considered reliable and easy to implement; once the maximum respiratory response is determined...

NASA Instrument Cost/Schedule Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Mrozinski, Joe; Fox, George

2011-01-01

NASA's Office of Independent Program and Cost Evaluation (IPCE) has established a number of initiatives to improve its cost and schedule estimating capabilities. 12One of these initiatives has resulted in the JPL developed NASA Instrument Cost Model. NICM is a cost and schedule estimator that contains: A system level cost estimation tool; a subsystem level cost estimation tool; a database of cost and technical parameters of over 140 previously flown remote sensing and in-situ instruments; a schedule estimator; a set of rules to estimate cost and schedule by life cycle phases (B/C/D); and a novel tool for developing joint probability distributions for cost and schedule risk (Joint Confidence Level (JCL)). This paper describes the development and use of NICM, including the data normalization processes, data mining methods (cluster analysis, principal components analysis, regression analysis and bootstrap cross validation), the estimating equations themselves and a demonstration of the NICM tool suite.

Biotribological evaluation of artificial disc arthroplasty devices: influence of loading and kinematic patterns during in vitro wear simulation.

PubMed

Grupp, Thomas M; Yue, James J; Garcia, Rolando; Basson, Janet; Schwiesau, Jens; Fritz, Bernhard; Blömer, Wilhelm

2009-01-01

Wear simulation is an essential pre-clinical method to predict the mid- and long-term clinical wear behavior of newly introduced devices for total disc arthroplasty. The main requirement of a suitable method for spinal wear simulation has to be the ability to distinguish between design concepts and allow for a direct comparison of predicate devices. The objective of our study was to investigate the influence of loading and kinematic patterns based on two different protocols for spinal wear simulation (ISO/FDIS 18192-1 (2006) and ASTM F2423-05). In vitro wear simulation was performed with six activ L lumbar artificial disc devices (Aesculap Tuttlingen, Germany). The applied kinematic pattern of movement was multidirectional for ISO (elliptic track) and unidirectional with a curvilinear shape for ASTM. Testing was done for 10 million cycles in the ISO loading mode and afterwards with the same specimens for 5 million cycles according to the ASTM protocol with a customized six-station servohydraulic spinal wear simulator (EndoLab Thansau, Germany). Gravimetrical and geometrical wear assessment, a slide track analysis correlated to an optical surface characterization, and an estimation of particle size and morphology were performed. The gravimetric wear rate for the first 10 million cycles was ISO(initial) = 2.7 +/- 0.3 mg/million cycles. During the ASTM test period (10-15 million cycles) a gravimetric wear rate of 0.14 +/- 0.06 mg/million cycles was estimated. The wear rates between the ISO and ASTM driven simulations differ substantially (approximately 20-fold) and statistical analysis demonstrates a significant difference (p < 0.001) between the test groups. The main explanation of divergency between ISO and ASTM driven wear simulations is the multidirectional pattern of movement described in the ISO document resulting in a cross-shear stress on the polyethylene material. Due to previous retrieval observations, it seems to be very unlikely that a lumbar artificial disc is loaded with a linear wear path.Testing according to ASTM F2423-05 with pure unidirectional motion does not reflect the kinematics of TDA patients' daily activities. Based on our findings it seems to be more reliable to predict the clinical wear behavior of an artificial disc replacement using the ISO/FDIS 18192-1 method.

Biotribological evaluation of artificial disc arthroplasty devices: influence of loading and kinematic patterns during in vitro wear simulation

PubMed Central

Yue, James J.; Garcia, Rolando; Basson, Janet; Schwiesau, Jens; Fritz, Bernhard; Blömer, Wilhelm

2008-01-01

Wear simulation is an essential pre-clinical method to predict the mid- and long-term clinical wear behavior of newly introduced devices for total disc arthroplasty. The main requirement of a suitable method for spinal wear simulation has to be the ability to distinguish between design concepts and allow for a direct comparison of predicate devices. The objective of our study was to investigate the influence of loading and kinematic patterns based on two different protocols for spinal wear simulation (ISO/FDIS 18192-1 (2006) and ASTM F2423-05). In vitro wear simulation was performed with six activ® L lumbar artificial disc devices (Aesculap Tuttlingen, Germany). The applied kinematic pattern of movement was multidirectional for ISO (elliptic track) and unidirectional with a curvilinear shape for ASTM. Testing was done for 10 million cycles in the ISO loading mode and afterwards with the same specimens for 5 million cycles according to the ASTM protocol with a customized six-station servohydraulic spinal wear simulator (EndoLab Thansau, Germany). Gravimetrical and geometrical wear assessment, a slide track analysis correlated to an optical surface characterization, and an estimation of particle size and morphology were performed. The gravimetric wear rate for the first 10 million cycles was ISOinitial = 2.7 ± 0.3 mg/million cycles. During the ASTM test period (10–15 million cycles) a gravimetric wear rate of 0.14 ± 0.06 mg/million cycles was estimated. The wear rates between the ISO and ASTM driven simulations differ substantially (approximately 20-fold) and statistical analysis demonstrates a significant difference (p < 0.001) between the test groups. The main explanation of divergency between ISO and ASTM driven wear simulations is the multidirectional pattern of movement described in the ISO document resulting in a cross-shear stress on the polyethylene material. Due to previous retrieval observations, it seems to be very unlikely that a lumbar artificial disc is loaded with a linear wear path.Testing according to ASTM F2423-05 with pure unidirectional motion does not reflect the kinematics of TDA patients‘ daily activities. Based on our findings it seems to be more reliable to predict the clinical wear behavior of an artificial disc replacement using the ISO/FDIS 18192-1 method. PMID:19050942

A method for nonlinear exponential regression analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Junkin, B. G.

1971-01-01

A computer-oriented technique is presented for performing a nonlinear exponential regression analysis on decay-type experimental data. The technique involves the least squares procedure wherein the nonlinear problem is linearized by expansion in a Taylor series. A linear curve fitting procedure for determining the initial nominal estimates for the unknown exponential model parameters is included as an integral part of the technique. A correction matrix was derived and then applied to the nominal estimate to produce an improved set of model parameters. The solution cycle is repeated until some predetermined criterion is satisfied.

Estimating water consumption of potential natural vegetation on global dry lands: building an LCA framework for green water flows.

PubMed

Núñez, Montserrat; Pfister, Stephan; Roux, Philippe; Antón, Assumpció

2013-01-01

This study aimed to provide a framework for assessing direct soil-water consumption, also termed green water in the literature, in life cycle assessment (LCA). This was an issue that LCA had not tackled before. The approach, which is applied during the life cycle inventory phase (LCI), consists of quantifying the net change in the evapo(transpi)ration of the production system compared to the natural reference situation. Potential natural vegetation (PNV) is used as the natural reference situation. In order to apply the method, we estimated PNV evapotranspiration adapted to local biogeographic conditions, on global dry lands, where soil-water consumption impacts can be critical. Values are reported at different spatial aggregation levels: 10-arcmin global grid, ecoregions (501 units), biomes (14 units), countries (124 units), continents, and a global average, to facilitate the assessment for different spatial information detail levels available in the LCI. The method is intended to be used in rain-fed agriculture and rainwater harvesting contexts, which includes direct soil moisture uptake by plants and rainwater harvested and then reused in production systems. The paper provides the necessary LCI method and data for further development of impact assessment models and characterization factors to evaluate the environmental effects of the net change in evapo(transpi)ration.

Experimental study of crack initiation and propagation in high- and gigacycle fatigue in titanium alloys

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bannikov, Mikhail, E-mail: mbannikov@icmm.ru, E-mail: oborin@icmm.ru, E-mail: naimark@icmm.ru; Oborin, Vladimir, E-mail: mbannikov@icmm.ru, E-mail: oborin@icmm.ru, E-mail: naimark@icmm.ru; Naimark, Oleg, E-mail: mbannikov@icmm.ru, E-mail: oborin@icmm.ru, E-mail: naimark@icmm.ru

Fatigue (high- and gigacycle) crack initiation and its propagation in titanium alloys with coarse and fine grain structure are studied by fractography analysis of fracture surface. Fractured specimens were analyzed by interferometer microscope and SEM to improve methods of monitoring of damage accumulation during fatigue test and to verify the models for fatigue crack kinetics. Fatigue strength was estimated for high cycle fatigue regime using the Luong method [1] by “in-situ” infrared scanning of the sample surface for the step-wise loading history for different grain size metals. Fine grain alloys demonstrated higher fatigue resistance for both high cycle fatigue andmore » gigacycle fatigue regimes. Fracture surface analysis for plane and cylindrical samples was carried out using optical and electronic microscopy method. High resolution profilometry (interferometer-profiler New View 5010) data of fracture surface roughness allowed us to estimate scale invariance (the Hurst exponent) and to establish the existence of two characteristic areas of damage localization (different values of the Hurst exponent). Area 1 with diameter ∼300 μm has the pronounced roughness and is associated with damage localization hotspot. Area 2 shows less amplitude roughness, occupies the rest fracture surface and considered as the trace of the fatigue crack path corresponding to the Paris kinetics.« less

Change in methodology for collection of drinking water intake in What We Eat in America/National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey: implications for analysis.

PubMed

Sebastian, Rhonda S; Wilkinson Enns, Cecilia; Goldman, Joseph D; Moshfegh, Alanna J

2012-07-01

To provide updated estimates of drinking water intake (total, tap, plain bottled) for groups aged ≥1 year in the USA and to determine whether intakes collected in 2005-2006 using the Automated Multiple-Pass Method for the 24 h recall differ from intakes collected in 2003-2004 via post-recall food-frequency type questions. Cross-sectional, observational study. What We Eat in America (WWEIA), the dietary intake component of the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Individuals aged ≥1 year in 2003-2004 (n 8249) and 2005-2006 (n 8437) with one complete 24 h recall. The estimate for the percentage of individuals who reported total drinking water in 2005-2006 was significantly (P < 0·0000) smaller (76·9 %) than that for 2003-2004 (87·1 %), attributable to a lower percentage reporting tap water (54·1 % in 2005-2006 v. 67·0 % in 2003-2004; P = 0·0001). Estimates of mean tap water intake differed between the survey cycles for men aged ≥71 years. Survey variables must be examined before combining or comparing data from multiple WWEIA/NHANES release cycles. For at least some age/gender groups, drinking water intake data from NHANES cycles prior to 2005-2006 should not be considered comparable to more recent data.

Design of intelligent composites with life-cycle health management capabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosania, Colleen L.; Larrosa, Cecilia C.; Chang, Fu-Kuo

2015-03-01

Use of carbon fiber reinforced polymers (CFRPs) presents challenges because of their complex manufacturing processes and different damage mechanics in relation to legacy metal materials. New monitoring methods for manufacturing, quality verification, damage estimation, and prognosis are needed to use CFRPs safely and efficiently. This work evaluates the development of intelligent composite materials using integrated piezoelectric sensors to monitor the material during cure and throughout service life. These sensors are used to propagate ultrasonic waves through the structure for health monitoring. During manufacturing, data is collected at different stages during the cure cycle, detecting the changing material properties during cure and verifying quality and degree of cure. The same sensors can then be used with previously developed techniques to perform damage detection, such as impact detection and matrix crack density estimation. Real-time damage estimation can be combined with prognostic models to predict future propagation of damage in the material. In this work experimental results will be presented from composite coupons with embedded piezoelectric sensors. Cure monitoring and damage detection results derived from analysis of the ultrasonic sensor signal will be shown. Sensitive signal parameters to the different stimuli in both the time and frequency domains will be explored for this analysis. From these results, use of the same sensor networks from manufacturing throughout the life of the composite material will demonstrate the full life-cycle monitoring capability of these intelligent materials.

A Kinematic Description of the Temporal Characteristics of Jaw Motion for Early Chewing: Preliminary Findings

PubMed Central

Wilson, Erin M.; Green, Jordan R.; Weismer, Gary

2013-01-01

Purpose The purpose of this investigation was to describe age- and consistency-related changes in the temporal characteristics of chewing in typically-developing children between 4 – 35 months of age and adults using high-resolution optically-based motion capture technology. Method Data were collected from a total of 60 participants (48 children, 12 adults) across five age ranges (beginners, 7-months, 12-months, 35-months, and adults); each age group included 12 participants. Three different food consistencies were trialed as appropriate. The data were analyzed to assess changes in chewing rate, chewing sequence duration, and a measure of the estimated number of chewing cycles. Results The results revealed both age- and consistency-related changes in chewing rate, sequence duration, and the estimated number of chewing cycles with consistency differences affecting masticatory timing in children as young as 7-months of age. Chewing rate varied as a function of age and consistency and chewing sequence duration was shorter for adults than children regardless of consistency type. Additionally, the results from the estimated number of chewing cycles measure suggests that chewing effectiveness increased with age; this measure was also dependent on consistency type. Conclusions The findings suggest that the different temporal chewing variables follow distinct developmental trajectories and are consistency-dependent in children as young as 7-months of age. Clinical implications are detailed. PMID:22223889

Small-scale temporal and spatial variability in the abundance of plastic pellets on sandy beaches: Methodological considerations for estimating the input of microplastics.

PubMed

Moreira, Fabiana Tavares; Prantoni, Alessandro Lívio; Martini, Bruno; de Abreu, Michelle Alves; Stoiev, Sérgio Biato; Turra, Alexander

2016-01-15

Microplastics such as pellets have been reported for many years on sandy beaches around the globe. Nevertheless, high variability is observed in their estimates and distribution patterns across the beach environment are still to be unravelled. Here, we investigate the small-scale temporal and spatial variability in the abundance of pellets in the intertidal zone of a sandy beach and evaluate factors that can increase the variability in data sets. The abundance of pellets was estimated during twelve consecutive tidal cycles, identifying the position of the high tide between cycles and sampling drift-lines across the intertidal zone. We demonstrate that beach dynamic processes such as the overlap of strandlines and artefacts of the methods can increase the small-scale variability. The results obtained are discussed in terms of the methodological considerations needed to understand the distribution of pellets in the beach environment, with special implications for studies focused on patterns of input. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

PLE in the analysis of plant compounds. Part II: One-cycle PLE in determining total amount of analyte in plant material.

PubMed

Dawidowicz, Andrzej L; Wianowska, Dorota

2005-04-29

Pressurised liquid extraction (PLE) is recognised as one of the most effective sample preparation methods. Despite the enhanced extraction power of PLE, the full recovery of an analyte from plant material may require multiple extractions of the same sample. The presented investigations show the possibility of estimating the true concentration value of an analyte in plant material employing one-cycle PLE in which plant samples of different weight are used. The performed experiments show a linear dependence between the reciprocal value of the analyte amount (E*), extracted in single-step PLE from a plant matrix, and the ratio of plant material mass to extrahent volume (m(p)/V(s)). Hence, time-consuming multi-step PLE can be replaced by a few single-step PLEs performed at different (m(p)/V(s)) ratios. The concentrations of rutin in Sambucus nigra L. and caffeine in tea and coffee estimated by means of the tested procedure are almost the same as their concentrations estimated by multiple PLE.

A TRMM-Calibrated Infrared Technique for Convective and Stratiform Rainfall: Analysis and Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Negri, Andrew; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A satellite infrared technique with passive microwave calibration has been developed for estimating convective and stratiform rainfall. The Convective-Stratiform Technique, calibrated by coincident, physically retrieved rain rates from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI), has been applied to 30 min interval GOES infrared data and aggregated over seasonal and yearly periods over northern South America. The diurnal cycle of rainfall, as well as the division between convective and stratiform rainfall is presented. For the period Jan-April 1999, analysis revealed significant effects of local circulations (river breeze, land/sea breeze, mountain/valley) on both the total rainfall and it's diurnal cycle. Results compared well (a one-hour lag) with the diurnal cycle derived from TOGA radar-estimated rainfall in Rondonia. The satellite estimates revealed that the convective rain constituted 24% of the rain area while accounting for 67% of the rain volume. Estimates of the diurnal cycle (both total rainfall and convective/stratiform) for an area encompassing the Amazon Basin (3 x 10(exp 6) sq km) were in phase with those from the TRMM Precipitation Radar, despite the latter's limited sampling. Results will be presented comparing the yearly (2000) diurnal cycle for large regions (including the Amazon Basin), and an intercomparison of January-March estimates for three years, (1999-2001). We hope to demonstrate the utility of using the TRMM PR observations as verification for infrared estimates of the diurnal cycle, and as verification of the apportionment of rainfall into convective and stratiform components.

A TRMM-Calibrated Infrared Technique for Convective and Stratiform Rainfall: Analysis and Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Negri, Andrew; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A satellite infrared technique with passive microwave calibration has been developed for estimating convective and stratiform. rainfall. The Convective-Stratiform Technique, calibrated by coincident, physically retrieved rain rates from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI), has been applied to 30 min interval GOES infrared data and aggregated over seasonal and yearly periods over northern South America. The diurnal cycle of rainfall, as well as the division between convective and stratiform rainfall is presented. For the period Jan-April 1999, analysis revealed significant effects of local circulations (river breeze, land/sea breeze, mountain/valley) on both the total rainfall and it's diurnal cycle. Results compared well (a one-hour lag) with the diurnal cycle derived from TOGA radar-estimated rainfall in Rondonia. The satellite estimates revealed that the convective rain constituted 24% of the rain area while accounting for 67% of the rain volume. Estimates of the diurnal cycle (both total rainfall and convective/stratiform) for an area encompassing the Amazon Basin (3 x 10(exp 6) square km) were in phase with those from the TRMM Precipitation Radar, despite the latter's limited sampling. Results will be presented comparing the yearly (2000) diurnal cycle for large regions (including the Amazon Basin), and an intercomparison of January-March estimates for three years, 1999-2001. We hope to demonstrate the utility of using the TRMM PR observations as verification for infrared estimates of the diurnal cycle, and as verification of the apportionment of rainfall into convective and stratiform components.

Osthole induces apoptosis, suppresses cell-cycle progression and proliferation of cancer cells.

PubMed

Jarząb, Agata; Grabarska, Aneta; Kiełbus, Michał; Jeleniewicz, Witold; Dmoszyńska-Graniczka, Magdalena; Skalicka-Woźniak, Krystyna; Sieniawska, Elwira; Polberg, Krzysztof; Stepulak, Andrzej

2014-11-01

The aim of the present study was to determine the effects of osthole on cell proliferation and viability, cell-cycle progression and induction of apoptosis in human laryngeal cancer RK33 and human medulloblastoma TE671 cell lines. Cell viability was measured by means of the MTT method and cell proliferation by the 5-bromo-2-deoxyuridine (BrdU) incorporation assay. Cell-cycle progression was determined by flow cytometry, and induction of apoptosis by release of oligonucleosomes to the cytosol. The gene expression was estimated by a quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) method. High-performance counter-current chromatography (HPCCC) was applied for isolation of osthole from fruits of Mutellina purpurea. Osthole decreased proliferation and cell viability of cancer cells in a dose-dependent manner. The tested compound induced apoptosis, increased the cell numbers in G1 and decreased cell number in S/G2 phases of the cell cycle, differentially regulating CDKN1A and TP53 gene expression depending on cancer cell type. Osthole could be considered as a potential compound for cancer therapy and chemoprevention. Copyright© 2014 International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. John G. Delinassios), All rights reserved.

Estimating seasonal evapotranspiration from temporal satellite images

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singh, Ramesh K.; Liu, Shu-Guang; Tieszen, Larry L.; Suyker, Andrew E.; Verma, Shashi B.

2012-01-01

Estimating seasonal evapotranspiration (ET) has many applications in water resources planning and management, including hydrological and ecological modeling. Availability of satellite remote sensing images is limited due to repeat cycle of satellite or cloud cover. This study was conducted to determine the suitability of different methods namely cubic spline, fixed, and linear for estimating seasonal ET from temporal remotely sensed images. Mapping Evapotranspiration at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration (METRIC) model in conjunction with the wet METRIC (wMETRIC), a modified version of the METRIC model, was used to estimate ET on the days of satellite overpass using eight Landsat images during the 2001 crop growing season in Midwest USA. The model-estimated daily ET was in good agreement (R2 = 0.91) with the eddy covariance tower-measured daily ET. The standard error of daily ET was 0.6 mm (20%) at three validation sites in Nebraska, USA. There was no statistically significant difference (P > 0.05) among the cubic spline, fixed, and linear methods for computing seasonal (July–December) ET from temporal ET estimates. Overall, the cubic spline resulted in the lowest standard error of 6 mm (1.67%) for seasonal ET. However, further testing of this method for multiple years is necessary to determine its suitability.

Noninvasive Determination of Anaerobic Threshold Based on the Heart Rate Deflection Point in Water Cycling.

PubMed

Pinto, Stephanie S; Brasil, Roxana M; Alberton, Cristine L; Ferreira, Hector K; Bagatini, Natália C; Calatayud, Joaquin; Colado, Juan C

2016-02-01

This study compared heart rate (HR), oxygen uptake (VO2), percentage of maximal HR (%HRmax), percentage of maximal VO2, and cadence (Cad) related to the anaerobic threshold (AT) during a water cycling maximal test between heart rate deflection point (HRDP) and ventilatory (VT) methods. In addition, the correlations between both methods were assessed for all variables. The test was performed by 27 men in a cycle ergometer in an aquatic environment. The protocol started at a Cad of 100 b · min(-1) for 3 minutes with subsequent increments of 15 b · min(-1) every 2 minutes until exhaustion. A paired two-tailed Student's t-test was used to compare the variables between the HRDP and VT methods. The Pearson product-moment correlation test was used to correlate the same variables determined by the 2 methods. There was no difference in HR (166 ± 13 vs. 166 ± 13 b · min(-1)), VO2 (38.56 ± 6.26 vs. 39.18 ± 6.13 ml · kg(-1) · min(-1)), %HRmax (89.24 ± 3.84 vs. 89.52 ± 4.29%), VO2max (70.44 ± 7.99 vs. 71.64 ± 8.32%), and Cad (174 ± 14 b · min(-1) vs. 171 ± 8 b · min(-1)) related to AT between the HRDP and VT methods. Moreover, significant relationships were found between the methods to determine the AT for all variables analyzed (r = 0.57-0.97). The estimation of the HRDP may be a noninvasive and easy method to determine the AT, which could be used to adapt individualized training intensities to practitioners during water cycling classes.

Methods for regionalization of impacts of non-toxic air pollutants in life-cycle assessments often tell a consistent story

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djomo, S. Njakou; Knudsen, M. T.; Andersen, M. S.; Hermansen, J. E.

2017-11-01

There is an ongoing debate regarding the influence of the source location of pollution on the fate of pollutants and their subsequent impacts. Several methods have been developed to derive site-dependent characterization factors (CFs) for use in life-cycle assessment (LCA). Consistent, precise, and accurate estimates of CFs are crucial for establishing long-term, sustainable air pollution abatement policies. We reviewed currently available studies on the regionalization of non-toxic air pollutants in LCA. We also extracted and converted data into indices for analysis. We showed that CFs can distinguish between emissions occurring in different locations, and that the different methods used to derive CFs map locations consistently from very sensitive to less sensitive. Seasonal variations are less important for the computation of CFs for acidification and eutrophication, but they are relevant for the calculation of CFs for tropospheric ozone formation. Large intra-country differences in estimated CFs suggest that an abatement policy relying on quantitative estimates based upon a single method may have undesirable outcomes. Within country differences in estimates of CFs for acidification and eutrophication are the results of the models used, category definitions, soil sensitivity factors, background emission concentration, critical loads database, and input data. Striking features in these studies were the lack of CFs for countries outside Europe, the USA, Japan, and Canada, the lack of quantification of uncertainties. Parameter and input data uncertainties are well quantified, but the uncertainty associated with the choice of category indicator is rarely quantified and this can be significant. Although CFs are scientifically robust, further refinements are needed before they can be integrated in LCA. Future research should include uncertainty analyses, and should develop a consensus model for CFs. CFs for countries outside Europe, Japan, Canada and the USA are urgently needed.

Integer ambiguity resolution in precise point positioning: method comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geng, Jianghui; Meng, Xiaolin; Dodson, Alan H.; Teferle, Felix N.

2010-09-01

Integer ambiguity resolution at a single receiver can be implemented by applying improved satellite products where the fractional-cycle biases (FCBs) have been separated from the integer ambiguities in a network solution. One method to achieve these products is to estimate the FCBs by averaging the fractional parts of the float ambiguity estimates, and the other is to estimate the integer-recovery clocks by fixing the undifferenced ambiguities to integers in advance. In this paper, we theoretically prove the equivalence of the ambiguity-fixed position estimates derived from these two methods by assuming that the FCBs are hardware-dependent and only they are assimilated into the clocks and ambiguities. To verify this equivalence, we implement both methods in the Position and Navigation Data Analyst software to process 1 year of GPS data from a global network of about 350 stations. The mean biases between all daily position estimates derived from these two methods are only 0.2, 0.1 and 0.0 mm, whereas the standard deviations of all position differences are only 1.3, 0.8 and 2.0 mm for the East, North and Up components, respectively. Moreover, the differences of the position repeatabilities are below 0.2 mm on average for all three components. The RMS of the position estimates minus those from the International GNSS Service weekly solutions for the former method differs by below 0.1 mm on average for each component from that for the latter method. Therefore, considering the recognized millimeter-level precision of current GPS-derived daily positions, these statistics empirically demonstrate the theoretical equivalence of the ambiguity-fixed position estimates derived from these two methods. In practice, we note that the former method is compatible with current official clock-generation methods, whereas the latter method is not, but can potentially lead to slightly better positioning quality.

A Framework for Quantifying Measurement Uncertainties and Uncertainty Propagation in HCCI/LTGC Engine Experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Petitpas, Guillaume; McNenly, Matthew J.; Whitesides, Russell A.

In this study, a framework for estimating experimental measurement uncertainties for a Homogenous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI)/Low-Temperature Gasoline Combustion (LTGC) engine testing facility is presented. Detailed uncertainty quantification is first carried out for the measurement of the in-cylinder pressure, whose variations during the cycle provide most of the information for performance evaluation. Standard uncertainties of other measured quantities, such as the engine geometry and speed, the air and fuel flow rate and the intake/exhaust dry molar fractions are also estimated. Propagating those uncertainties using a Monte Carlo simulation and Bayesian inference methods then allows for estimation of uncertainties of themore » mass-average temperature and composition at IVC and throughout the cycle; and also of the engine performances such as gross Integrated Mean Effective Pressure, Heat Release and Ringing Intensity. Throughout the analysis, nominal values for uncertainty inputs were taken from a well-characterized engine test facility. However, the analysis did not take into account the calibration practice of experiments run in that facility and the resulting uncertainty values are therefore not indicative of the expected accuracy of those experimental results. A future study will employ the methodology developed here to explore the effects of different calibration methods on the different uncertainty values in order to evaluate best practices for accurate engine measurements.« less

A Framework for Quantifying Measurement Uncertainties and Uncertainty Propagation in HCCI/LTGC Engine Experiments

DOE PAGES

Petitpas, Guillaume; McNenly, Matthew J.; Whitesides, Russell A.

2017-03-28

In this study, a framework for estimating experimental measurement uncertainties for a Homogenous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI)/Low-Temperature Gasoline Combustion (LTGC) engine testing facility is presented. Detailed uncertainty quantification is first carried out for the measurement of the in-cylinder pressure, whose variations during the cycle provide most of the information for performance evaluation. Standard uncertainties of other measured quantities, such as the engine geometry and speed, the air and fuel flow rate and the intake/exhaust dry molar fractions are also estimated. Propagating those uncertainties using a Monte Carlo simulation and Bayesian inference methods then allows for estimation of uncertainties of themore » mass-average temperature and composition at IVC and throughout the cycle; and also of the engine performances such as gross Integrated Mean Effective Pressure, Heat Release and Ringing Intensity. Throughout the analysis, nominal values for uncertainty inputs were taken from a well-characterized engine test facility. However, the analysis did not take into account the calibration practice of experiments run in that facility and the resulting uncertainty values are therefore not indicative of the expected accuracy of those experimental results. A future study will employ the methodology developed here to explore the effects of different calibration methods on the different uncertainty values in order to evaluate best practices for accurate engine measurements.« less

A comparative study of commercial lithium ion battery cycle life in electrical vehicle: Aging mechanism identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Xuebing; Ouyang, Minggao; Lu, Languang; Li, Jianqiu; Zheng, Yuejiu; Li, Zhe

2014-04-01

When lithium-ion batteries age with cycling, the battery capacity decreases and the resistance increases. The aging mechanism of different types of lithium-ion batteries differs. The loss of lithium inventory, loss of active material, and the increase in resistance may result in battery aging. Generally, analysis of the battery aging mechanism requires dismantling of batteries and using methods such as X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy. These methods may permanently damage the battery. Therefore, the methods are inappropriate for the battery management system (BMS) in an electric vehicle. The constant current charging curves while charging the battery could be used to get the incremental capacity and differential voltage curves for identifying the aging mechanism; the battery state-of-health can then be estimated. This method can be potentially used in the BMS for online diagnostic and prognostic services. The genetic algorithm could be used to quantitatively analyze the battery aging offline. And the membership function could be used for onboard aging mechanism identification.

The forecasting of menstruation based on a state-space modeling of basal body temperature time series.

PubMed

Fukaya, Keiichi; Kawamori, Ai; Osada, Yutaka; Kitazawa, Masumi; Ishiguro, Makio

2017-09-20

Women's basal body temperature (BBT) shows a periodic pattern that associates with menstrual cycle. Although this fact suggests a possibility that daily BBT time series can be useful for estimating the underlying phase state as well as for predicting the length of current menstrual cycle, little attention has been paid to model BBT time series. In this study, we propose a state-space model that involves the menstrual phase as a latent state variable to explain the daily fluctuation of BBT and the menstruation cycle length. Conditional distributions of the phase are obtained by using sequential Bayesian filtering techniques. A predictive distribution of the next menstruation day can be derived based on this conditional distribution and the model, leading to a novel statistical framework that provides a sequentially updated prediction for upcoming menstruation day. We applied this framework to a real data set of women's BBT and menstruation days and compared prediction accuracy of the proposed method with that of previous methods, showing that the proposed method generally provides a better prediction. Because BBT can be obtained with relatively small cost and effort, the proposed method can be useful for women's health management. Potential extensions of this framework as the basis of modeling and predicting events that are associated with the menstrual cycles are discussed. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Life Cycle Water Consumption and Wastewater Generation Impacts of a Marcellus Shale Gas Well

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

This study estimates the life cycle water consumption and wastewater generation impacts of a Marcellus shale gas well from its construction to end of life. Direct water consumption at the well site was assessed by analysis of data from approximately 500 individual well completion reports collected in 2010 by the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources. Indirect water consumption for supply chain production at each life cycle stage of the well was estimated using the economic input–output life cycle assessment (EIO-LCA) method. Life cycle direct and indirect water quality pollution impacts were assessed and compared using the tool for the reduction and assessment of chemical and other environmental impacts (TRACI). Wastewater treatment cost was proposed as an additional indicator for water quality pollution impacts from shale gas well wastewater. Four water management scenarios for Marcellus shale well wastewater were assessed: current conditions in Pennsylvania; complete discharge; direct reuse and desalination; and complete desalination. The results show that under the current conditions, an average Marcellus shale gas well consumes 20 000 m3 (with a range from 6700 to 33 000 m3) of freshwater per well over its life cycle excluding final gas utilization, with 65% direct water consumption at the well site and 35% indirect water consumption across the supply chain production. If all flowback and produced water is released into the environment without treatment, direct wastewater from a Marcellus shale gas well is estimated to have 300–3000 kg N-eq eutrophication potential, 900–23 000 kg 2,4D-eq freshwater ecotoxicity potential, 0–370 kg benzene-eq carcinogenic potential, and 2800–71 000 MT toluene-eq noncarcinogenic potential. The potential toxicity of the chemicals in the wastewater from the well site exceeds those associated with supply chain production, except for carcinogenic effects. If all the Marcellus shale well wastewater is treated to surface discharge standards by desalination, $59 000–270 000 per well would be required. The life cycle study results indicate that when gas end use is not considered hydraulic fracturing is the largest contributor to the life cycle water impacts of a Marcellus shale gas well. PMID:24380628

Physiological motion modeling for organ-mounted robots.

PubMed

Wood, Nathan A; Schwartzman, David; Zenati, Marco A; Riviere, Cameron N

2017-12-01

Organ-mounted robots passively compensate heartbeat and respiratory motion. In model-guided procedures, this motion can be a significant source of information that can be used to aid in localization or to add dynamic information to static preoperative maps. Models for estimating periodic motion are proposed for both position and orientation. These models are then tested on animal data and optimal orders are identified. Finally, methods for online identification are demonstrated. Models using exponential coordinates and Euler-angle parameterizations are as accurate as models using quaternion representations, yet require a quarter fewer parameters. Models which incorporate more than four cardiac or three respiration harmonics are no more accurate. Finally, online methods estimate model parameters as accurately as offline methods within three respiration cycles. These methods provide a complete framework for accurately modelling the periodic deformation of points anywhere on the surface of the heart in a closed chest. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cycle-time equations for five small tractors operating in low-volume small-diameter hardwood stands

Treesearch

Chris B. LeDoux; Neil K. Huyler; Neil K. Huyler

1992-01-01

Prediction equations for estimating cycle time were developed for five small tractors studied under various silvicultural treatments and operating conditions. The tractors studied included the Pasquali 933, a Holder A60F, a Forest Ant Forwarder (Skogsman), a Massey-Ferguson, and a Sam4 Minitarus. Skidding costs were estimated based on the cycle-time equations. Using...

Probabilistic framework for product design optimization and risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keski-Rahkonen, J. K.

2018-05-01

Probabilistic methods have gradually gained ground within engineering practices but currently it is still the industry standard to use deterministic safety margin approaches to dimensioning components and qualitative methods to manage product risks. These methods are suitable for baseline design work but quantitative risk management and product reliability optimization require more advanced predictive approaches. Ample research has been published on how to predict failure probabilities for mechanical components and furthermore to optimize reliability through life cycle cost analysis. This paper reviews the literature for existing methods and tries to harness their best features and simplify the process to be applicable in practical engineering work. Recommended process applies Monte Carlo method on top of load-resistance models to estimate failure probabilities. Furthermore, it adds on existing literature by introducing a practical framework to use probabilistic models in quantitative risk management and product life cycle costs optimization. The main focus is on mechanical failure modes due to the well-developed methods used to predict these types of failures. However, the same framework can be applied on any type of failure mode as long as predictive models can be developed.

Validation of the Pulmonary Function System for Use on the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCleary, Frank A.; Moore, Alan D., Jr.; Hagan, R. Donald

2007-01-01

Aerobic deconditioning occurs during long duration space flight despite the use of exercise countermeasures (Convertino, 1996). As a part of International Space Station (ISS) medical operations, periodic tests designed to estimate aerobic capacity are performed to track changes in aerobic fitness and to determine the effectiveness of exercise countermeasures. These tests are performed prior to, during, and after missions of greater than 30 days in duration. Crewmembers selected for missions aboard the ISS perform a graded exercise test on a cycle ergometer approximately 270 days prior to their scheduled launch date in order to measure peak oxygen consumption (VO2PK) and peak heart rate (HRpk). Approximately 30 to 45 days prior to launch, crewmembers perform a submaximal cycle ergometer test at work rates set to elicit 25, 50 and 75% of their pre-flight VO2PK. This test, known as the Periodic Fitness Evaluation (PFE), serves as a baseline measure to which subsequent in-and post-flight exercise tests are compared. While onboard the ISS, crewmembers are normally scheduled to perform the PFE beginning with flight day (FD) 14 and every 30 days thereafter. The PFE is also conducted 5 and 30 days following flight. Using PFE data, aerobic fitness is estimated by quantifying the VO2 vs. HR relationship using linear regression and calculating the VO2 that would occur at the crewmember s previously measured HRpk. Currently, for data collected during flight, this technique assumes that the pre- vs. in-flight oxygen consumption per given cycle workload is similar. However, the validity of this assumption is based upon a sparse amount of data collected during the Skylab era (Michel, et al. 1977). The method of using heart rate and cycle ergometer work rates has been used to estimate aerobic fitness in normal gravity (Astrand and Ryhming, 1954; Lee, 1993). Due to spaceflight induced physiological alterations, such as shifts in extracellular fluid (e.g. plasma) volume, this method may not be valid during space flight. In addition, the ergometer onboard ISS is vibration-isolated and moves with the astronaut s application of force into the pedals. The effect of this movement on the VO2 of cycle exercise on ISS has not been quantified.

Time-to-event continual reassessment method incorporating treatment cycle information with application to an oncology phase I trial.

PubMed

Huang, Bo; Kuan, Pei Fen

2014-11-01

Delayed dose limiting toxicities (i.e. beyond first cycle of treatment) is a challenge for phase I trials. The time-to-event continual reassessment method (TITE-CRM) is a Bayesian dose-finding design to address the issue of long observation time and early patient drop-out. It uses a weighted binomial likelihood with weights assigned to observations by the unknown time-to-toxicity distribution, and is open to accrual continually. To avoid dosing at overly toxic levels while retaining accuracy and efficiency for DLT evaluation that involves multiple cycles, we propose an adaptive weight function by incorporating cyclical data of the experimental treatment with parameters updated continually. This provides a reasonable estimate for the time-to-toxicity distribution by accounting for inter-cycle variability and maintains the statistical properties of consistency and coherence. A case study of a First-in-Human trial in cancer for an experimental biologic is presented using the proposed design. Design calibrations for the clinical and statistical parameters are conducted to ensure good operating characteristics. Simulation results show that the proposed TITE-CRM design with adaptive weight function yields significantly shorter trial duration, does not expose patients to additional risk, is competitive against the existing weighting methods, and possesses some desirable properties. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Using Map Service API for Driving Cycle Detection for Wearable GPS Data: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Lei; Gonder, Jeffrey D

Following advancements in smartphone and portable global positioning system (GPS) data collection, wearable GPS data have realized extensive use in transportation surveys and studies. The task of detecting driving cycles (driving or car-mode trajectory segments) from wearable GPS data has been the subject of much research. Specifically, distinguishing driving cycles from other motorized trips (such as taking a bus) is the main research problem in this paper. Many mode detection methods only focus on raw GPS speed data while some studies apply additional information, such as geographic information system (GIS) data, to obtain better detection performance. Procuring and maintaining dedicatedmore » road GIS data are costly and not trivial, whereas the technical maturity and broad use of map service application program interface (API) queries offers opportunities for mode detection tasks. The proposed driving cycle detection method takes advantage of map service APIs to obtain high-quality car-mode API route information and uses a trajectory segmentation algorithm to find the best-matched API route. The car-mode API route data combined with the actual route information, including the actual mode information, are used to train a logistic regression machine learning model, which estimates car modes and non-car modes with probability rates. The experimental results show promise for the proposed method's ability to detect vehicle mode accurately.« less

Longitudinal versus cross-sectional methodology for estimating the economic burden of breast cancer: a pilot study.

PubMed

Mullins, C Daniel; Wang, Junling; Cooke, Jesse L; Blatt, Lisa; Baquet, Claudia R

2004-01-01

Projecting future breast cancer treatment expenditure is critical for budgeting purposes, medical decision making and the allocation of resources in order to maximise the overall impact on health-related outcomes of care. Currently, both longitudinal and cross-sectional methodologies are used to project the economic burden of cancer. This pilot study examined the differences in estimates that were obtained using these two methods, focusing on Maryland, US Medicaid reimbursement data for chemotherapy and prescription drugs for the years 1999-2000. Two different methodologies for projecting life cycles of cancer expenditure were considered. The first examined expenditure according to chronological time (calendar quarter) for all cancer patients in the database in a given quarter. The second examined only the most recent quarter and constructed a hypothetical expenditure life cycle by taking into consideration the number of quarters since the respective patient had her first claim. We found different average expenditures using the same data and over the same time period. The longitudinal measurement had less extreme peaks and troughs, and yielded average expenditure in the final period that was 60% higher than that produced using the cross-sectional analysis; however, the longitudinal analysis had intermediate periods with significantly lower estimated expenditure than the cross-sectional data. These disparate results signify that each of the methods has merit. The longitudinal method tracks changes over time while the cross-sectional approach reflects more recent data, e.g. current practice patterns. Thus, this study reiterates the importance of considering the methodology when projecting future cancer expenditure.

[New method for determining endemic levels].

PubMed

Orellano, Pablo Wenceslao; Reynoso, Julieta Itatí

2011-05-01

Design an instrument for determining endemic levels or ranges using simple calculations; identify and estimate the parameters related to the dynamic transmission of communicable diseases. The parameters for establishing a theoretical curve of expected incidence based on the logistic growth model were identified. The parameters were estimated by nonlinear regression based on the cumulative incidence data from the previous five years. The weekly cumulative incidence of cases of influenza-like illness in Argentina in 2009 was used as an example. It was compared to the 2004-2008 case series in order to determine the cumulative and non-cumulative endemic levels. According to the cumulative endemic levels identified, the country entered the outbreak area in week 2. The data from previous years showed that the maximum expected number of cases or carrying capacity (K) was 1 090 660. When the non-cumulative levels were considered, the outbreak was present in 34 out of 51 weeks. A range of 1.05 to 1.13 was estimated for the basic reproductive rate (R0) in the non-epidemic period from 2004-2008. The new method facilitated the determination of endemic levels using a simple procedure with the identification of parameters that are important for transmission. Although it has limitations such as the fact that the equation used is more appropriate for evaluating diseases with a pronounced annual cycle and less accurate for cycles of less than 1 year, it can be considered a valuable alternative method for determining endemic ranges and a new contribution to the study of epidemic outbreaks at local health surveillance levels.

Menstrual function among women exposed to polybrominated biphenyls: A follow-up prevalence study

PubMed Central

Davis, Stephanie I; Blanck, Heidi Michels; Hertzberg, Vicki S; Tolbert, Paige E; Rubin, Carol; Cameron, Lorraine L; Henderson, Alden K; Marcus, Michele

2005-01-01

Background Alteration in menstrual cycle function is suggested among rhesus monkeys and humans exposed to polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs) and structurally similar polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). The feedback system for menstrual cycle function potentially allows multiple pathways for disruption directly through the hypothalamic-pituitary-ovarian axis and indirectly through alternative neuroendocrine axes. Methods The Michigan Female Health Study was conducted during 1997–1998 among women in a cohort exposed to PBBs in 1973. This study included 337 women with self-reported menstrual cycles of 20–35 days (age range: 24–56 years). Current PBB levels were estimated by exponential decay modeling of serum PBB levels collected from 1976–1987 during enrollment in the Michigan PBB cohort. Linear regression models for menstrual cycle length and the logarithm of bleed length used estimated current PBB exposure or enrollment PBB exposure categorized in tertiles, and for the upper decile. All models were adjusted for serum PCB levels, age, body mass index, history of at least 10% weight loss in the past year, physical activity, smoking, education, and household income. Results Higher levels of physical activity were associated with shorter bleed length, and increasing age was associated with shorter cycle length. Although no overall association was found between PBB exposure and menstrual cycle characteristics, a significant interaction between PBB exposures with past year weight loss was found. Longer bleed length and shorter cycle length were associated with higher PBB exposure among women with past year weight loss. Conclusion This study suggests that PBB exposure may impact ovarian function as indicated by menstrual cycle length and bleed length. However, these associations were found among the small number of women with recent weight loss suggesting either a chance finding or that mobilization of PBBs from lipid stores may be important. These results should be replicated with larger numbers of women exposed to similar lipophilic compounds. PMID:16091135

Comparison of machine-learning methods for above-ground biomass estimation based on Landsat imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Chaofan; Shen, Huanhuan; Shen, Aihua; Deng, Jinsong; Gan, Muye; Zhu, Jinxia; Xu, Hongwei; Wang, Ke

2016-07-01

Biomass is one significant biophysical parameter of a forest ecosystem, and accurate biomass estimation on the regional scale provides important information for carbon-cycle investigation and sustainable forest management. In this study, Landsat satellite imagery data combined with field-based measurements were integrated through comparisons of five regression approaches [stepwise linear regression, K-nearest neighbor, support vector regression, random forest (RF), and stochastic gradient boosting] with two different candidate variable strategies to implement the optimal spatial above-ground biomass (AGB) estimation. The results suggested that RF algorithm exhibited the best performance by 10-fold cross-validation with respect to R2 (0.63) and root-mean-square error (26.44 ton/ha). Consequently, the map of estimated AGB was generated with a mean value of 89.34 ton/ha in northwestern Zhejiang Province, China, with a similar pattern to the distribution mode of local forest species. This research indicates that machine-learning approaches associated with Landsat imagery provide an economical way for biomass estimation. Moreover, ensemble methods using all candidate variables, especially for Landsat images, provide an alternative for regional biomass simulation.

Erosion estimation of guide vane end clearance in hydraulic turbines with sediment water flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Wei; Kang, Jingbo; Wang, Jie; Peng, Guoyi; Li, Lianyuan; Su, Min

2018-04-01

The end surface of guide vane or head cover is one of the most serious parts of sediment erosion for high-head hydraulic turbines. In order to investigate the relationship between erosion depth of wall surface and the characteristic parameter of erosion, an estimative method including a simplified flow model and a modificatory erosion calculative function is proposed in this paper. The flow between the end surfaces of guide vane and head cover is simplified as a clearance flow around a circular cylinder with a backward facing step. Erosion characteristic parameter of csws3 is calculated with the mixture model for multiphase flow and the renormalization group (RNG) k-𝜀 turbulence model under the actual working conditions, based on which, erosion depths of guide vane and head cover end surfaces are estimated with a modification of erosion coefficient K. The estimation results agree well with the actual situation. It is shown that the estimative method is reasonable for erosion prediction of guide vane and can provide a significant reference to determine the optimal maintenance cycle for hydraulic turbine in the future.

Consensus in controversy: The modified Delphi method applied to Gynecologic Oncology practice.

PubMed

Cohn, David E; Havrilesky, Laura J; Osann, Kathryn; Lipscomb, Joseph; Hsieh, Susie; Walker, Joan L; Wright, Alexi A; Alvarez, Ronald D; Karlan, Beth Y; Bristow, Robert E; DiSilvestro, Paul A; Wakabayashi, Mark T; Morgan, Robert; Mukamel, Dana B; Wenzel, Lari

2015-09-01

To determine the degree of consensus regarding the probabilities of outcomes associated with IP/IV and IV chemotherapy. A survey was administered to an expert panel using the Delphi method. Ten ovarian cancer experts were asked to estimate outcomes for patients receiving IP/IV or IV chemotherapy. The clinical estimates were: 1) probability of completing six cycles of chemotherapy, 2) probability of surviving five years, 3) median survival, and 4) probability of ER/hospital visits during treatment. Estimates for two patients, one with a low comorbidity index (patient 1) and the other with a moderate index (patient 2), were included. The survey was administered in three rounds, and panelists could revise their subsequent responses based on review of the anonymous opinions of their peers. The ranges were smaller for IV compared with IP/IV therapy. Ranges decreased with each round. Consensus converged around outcomes related to IP/IV chemotherapy for: 1) completion of 6 cycles of therapy (type 1 patient, 62%, type 2 patient, 43%); 2) percentage of patients surviving 5 years (type 1 patient, 66%, type 2 patient, 47%); and 3) median survival (type 1 patient, 83 months, type 2 patient, 58 months). The group required three rounds to achieve consensus on the probabilities of ER/hospital visits (type 1 patient, 24%, type 2 patient, 35%). Initial estimates of survival and adverse events associated with IP/IV chemotherapy differ among experts. The Delphi process works to build consensus and may be a pragmatic tool to inform patients of their expected outcomes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A comparison of single-cycle versus multiple-cycle proof testing strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hudak, S. J., Jr.; Mcclung, R. C.; Bartlett, M. L.; Fitzgerald, J. H.; Russell, D. A.

1990-01-01

An evaluation of single-cycle and multiple-cycle proof testing (MCPT) strategies for SSME components is described. Data for initial sizes and shapes of actual SSME hardware defects are analyzed statistically. Closed-form estimates of the J-integral for surface flaws are derived with a modified reference stress method. The results of load- and displacement-controlled stable crack growth tests on thin IN-718 plates with deep surface flaws are summarized. A J-resistance curve for the surface-cracked configuration is developed and compared with data from thick compact tension specimens. The potential for further crack growth during large unload/reload cycles is discussed, highlighting conflicting data in the literature. A simple model for ductile crack growth during MCPT based on the J-resistance curve is used to study the potential effects of key variables. The projected changes in the crack size distribution during MCPT depend on the interactions between several key parameters, including the number of proof cycles, the nature of the resistance curve, the initial crack size distribution, the component boundary conditions (load vs. displacement control), and the magnitude of the applied load or displacement. The relative advantages of single-cycle and multiple-cycle proof testing appear to be specific, therefore, to individual component geometry, material, and loading.

Phase-amplitude reduction of transient dynamics far from attractors for limit-cycling systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shirasaka, Sho; Kurebayashi, Wataru; Nakao, Hiroya

2017-02-01

Phase reduction framework for limit-cycling systems based on isochrons has been used as a powerful tool for analyzing the rhythmic phenomena. Recently, the notion of isostables, which complements the isochrons by characterizing amplitudes of the system state, i.e., deviations from the limit-cycle attractor, has been introduced to describe the transient dynamics around the limit cycle [Wilson and Moehlis, Phys. Rev. E 94, 052213 (2016)]. In this study, we introduce a framework for a reduced phase-amplitude description of transient dynamics of stable limit-cycling systems. In contrast to the preceding study, the isostables are treated in a fully consistent way with the Koopman operator analysis, which enables us to avoid discontinuities of the isostables and to apply the framework to system states far from the limit cycle. We also propose a new, convenient bi-orthogonalization method to obtain the response functions of the amplitudes, which can be interpreted as an extension of the adjoint covariant Lyapunov vector to transient dynamics in limit-cycling systems. We illustrate the utility of the proposed reduction framework by estimating the optimal injection timing of external input that efficiently suppresses deviations of the system state from the limit cycle in a model of a biochemical oscillator.

Gluconeogenesis from labeled carbon: estimating isotope dilution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kelleher, J.K.

1986-03-01

To estimate the rate of gluconeogenesis from steady-state incorporation of labeled 3-carbon precursors into glucose, isotope dilution must be considered so that the rate of labeling of glucose can be quantitatively converted to the rate of gluconeogenesis. An expression for the value of this isotope dilution can be derived using mathematical techniques and a model of the tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle. The present investigation employs a more complex model than that used in previous studies. This model includes the following pathways that may affect the correction for isotope dilution: 1) flux of 3-carbon precursor to the oxaloacetate pool via acetyl-CoAmore » and the TCA cycle; 2) flux of 4- or 5-carbon compounds into the TCA cycle; 3) reversible flux between oxaloacetate (OAA) and pyruvate and between OAA and fumarate; 4) incomplete equilibrium between OAA pools; and 5) isotope dilution of 3-carbon tracers between the experimentally measured pool and the precursor for the TCA-cycle OAA pool. Experimental tests are outlined which investigators can use to determine whether these pathways are significant in a specific steady-state system. The study indicated that flux through these five pathways can significantly affect the correction for isotope dilution. To correct for the effects of these pathways an alternative method for calculating isotope dilution is proposed using citrate to relate the specific activities of acetyl-CoA and OAA.« less

Geobiochemistry of metabolism: Standard state thermodynamic properties of the citric acid cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canovas, Peter A.; Shock, Everett L.

2016-12-01

Integrating microbial metabolism into geochemical modeling allows assessments of energy and mass transfer between the geosphere and the microbial biosphere. Energy and power supplies and demands can be assessed from analytical geochemical data given thermodynamic data for compounds involved in catabolism and anabolism. Results are reported here from a critique of the available standard state thermodynamic data for organic acids and acid anions involved in the citric acid cycle (also known as the tricarboxylic acid cycle or the Krebs cycle). The development of methods for estimating standard state data unavailable from experiments is described, together with methods to predict corresponding values at elevated temperatures and pressures using the revised Helgeson-Kirkham-Flowers (HKF) equation of state for aqueous species. Internal consistency is maintained with standard state thermodynamic data for organic and inorganic aqueous species commonly used in geochemical modeling efforts. Standard state data and revised-HKF parameters are used to predict equilibrium dissociation constants for the organic acids in the citric acid cycle, and to assess standard Gibbs energies of reactions for each step in the cycle at elevated temperatures and pressures. The results presented here can be used with analytical data from natural and experimental systems to assess the energy and power demands of microorganisms throughout the habitable ranges of pressure and temperature, and to assess the consequences of abiotic organic compound alteration processes at conditions of subsurface aquifers, sedimentary basins, hydrothermal systems, meteorite parent bodies, and ocean worlds throughout the solar system.

Structural dynamics payload loads estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Engels, R. C.

1982-01-01

Methods for the prediction of loads on large space structures are discussed. Existing approaches to the problem of loads calculation are surveyed. A full scale version of an alternate numerical integration technique to solve the response part of a load cycle is presented, and a set of short cut versions of the algorithm developed. The implementation of these techniques using the software package developed is discussed.

Engineering Margin Factors Used in the Design of the VVER Fuel Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lizorkin, M. P.; Shishkov, L. K.

2017-12-01

The article describes methods for determination of the engineering margin factors currently used to estimate the uncertainties of the VVER reactor design parameters calculated via the KASKAD software package developed at the National Research Center Kurchatov Institute. These margin factors ensure the meeting of the operating (design) limits and a number of other restrictions under normal operating conditions.

Life Span as the Measure of Performance and Learning in a Business Gaming Simulation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thavikulwat, Precha

2012-01-01

This study applies the learning curve method of measuring learning to participants of a computer-assisted business gaming simulation that includes a multiple-life-cycle feature. The study involved 249 participants. It verified the workability of the feature and estimated the participants' rate of learning at 17.4% for every doubling of experience.…

Performance of CMIP3 and CMIP5 GCMs to simulate observed rainfall characteristics over the Western Himalayan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meher, J. K.; Das, L.

2017-12-01

The Western Himalayan Region (WHR) was subject to a significant negative trend in the annual and monsoon rainfall during 1902-2005. Annual and seasonal rainfall change over WHR of India was estimated using 22 rain gauge station rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department. The performance of 13 global climate models (GCMs) from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 3 (CMIP3) and 42 GCMs from CMIP5 was evaluated through multiple analysis: the evaluation of the mean annual cycle, annual cycles of interannual variability, spatial patterns, trends and signal-to-noise ratio. In general, CMIP5 GCMs were more skillful in terms of simulating the annual cycle of interannual variability compared to CMIP3 GCMs. The CMIP3 GCMs failed to reproduce the observed trend whereas 50% of the CMIP5 GCMs reproduced the statistical distribution of short-term (30-years) trend-estimates than for the longer term (99-years). GCMs from both CMIP3 and CMIP5 were able to simulate the spatial distribution of observed rainfall in pre-monsoon and winter months. Based on performance, each model of CMIP3 and CMIP5 was given an overall rank, which puts the high resolution version of the MIROC3.2 model (MIROC3.2 hires) and MIROC5 at the top in CMIP3 and CMIP5 respectively. Robustness of the ranking was judged through a sensitivity analysis, which indicated that ranks were independent during the process of adding or removing any individual method. It also revealed that trend analysis was not a robust method of judging performances of the model as compared to other methods.

[The association between emergency clinic visits for asthmatic attacks and fluctuating environmental factors].

PubMed

Shimizu, S; Kagawa, J; Ishiguro, M

2001-07-01

The number of nocturnal visits of asthmatic attack patients to the emergency room of Yokohama Medical Association's Clinic from January 1990 to December 1991 was compared to daily levels of air pollution (NO, NO2, SO2 and SPM) and weather (temperature and relative humidity) variables measured in Yokohama City. Trend-cycle components (Trend) that control for the weekly effects, other irregular variance for asthmatic attack incidence and environmental parameter measurements were estimated from the original data series using the method of Akaike and Ishiguro (1980). The rate of increase for each environmental parameter was then calculated from its trend-cycle components. We classified the data into four stages on the basis of rising and falling temperature and humidity. For each stage of temperature and humidity, fluctuation we estimated correlations between the number of asthmatic attack visits and original data series measurements, estimated trend-cycle components, and calculated rates of increase for each of the air pollutants. The daily number of asthmatic attack visits was negatively correlated to the daily mean values of all air pollutants, but positively correlated to the daily mean temperature and relative humidity. The trend-cycle components of the air pollutants were also negatively correlated to the frequencies of asthmatic attacks (p < 0.01 for all pollutants except NO2). In contrast, the number of asthmatic attack visits were in general positively correlated with increasing levels of pollutants. Furthermore, when both temperature and relative humidity decreased, significant correlations (r > 0.31, p < 0.001) between the number of asthmatic attacks and increased rates of all air pollutants were observed (r: NO2 > NO > SO2 > SPM).

North America's net terrestrial CO2 exchange with the atmosphere 1990-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, A. W.; Andres, R. J.; Davis, K. J.; Hafer, M.; Hayes, D. J.; Huntzinger, D. N.; de Jong, B.; Kurz, W. A.; McGuire, A. D.; Vargas, R.; Wei, Y.; West, T. O.; Woodall, C. W.

2015-01-01

Scientific understanding of the global carbon cycle is required for developing national and international policy to mitigate fossil fuel CO2 emissions by managing terrestrial carbon uptake. Toward that understanding and as a contribution to the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) project, this paper provides a synthesis of net land-atmosphere CO2 exchange for North America (Canada, United States, and Mexico) over the period 1990-2009. Only CO2 is considered, not methane or other greenhouse gases. This synthesis is based on results from three different methods: atmospheric inversion, inventory-based methods and terrestrial biosphere modeling. All methods indicate that the North American land surface was a sink for atmospheric CO2, with a net transfer from atmosphere to land. Estimates ranged from -890 to -280 Tg C yr-1, where the mean of atmospheric inversion estimates forms the lower bound of that range (a larger land sink) and the inventory-based estimate using the production approach the upper (a smaller land sink). This relatively large range is due in part to differences in how the approaches represent trade, fire and other disturbances and which ecosystems they include. Integrating across estimates, "best" estimates (i.e., measures of central tendency) are -472 ± 281 Tg C yr-1 based on the mean and standard deviation of the distribution and -360 Tg C yr-1 (with an interquartile range of -496 to -337) based on the median. Considering both the fossil fuel emissions source and the land sink, our analysis shows that North America was, however, a net contributor to the growth of CO2 in the atmosphere in the late 20th and early 21st century. With North America's mean annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions for the period 1990-2009 equal to 1720 Tg C yr-1 and assuming the estimate of -472 Tg C yr-1 as an approximation of the true terrestrial CO2 sink, the continent's source : sink ratio for this time period was 1720:472, or nearly 4:1.

North America's net terrestrial CO 2 exchange with the atmosphere 1990–2009

DOE PAGES

King, Anthony W.; Andres, Robert; Davis, Kenneth J.; ...

2015-01-21

Scientific understanding of the global carbon cycle is required for developing national and international policy to mitigate fossil fuel CO 2 emissions by managing terrestrial carbon uptake. Toward that understanding and as a contribution to the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) project, this paper provides a synthesis of net land–atmosphere CO 2 exchange for North America (Canada, United States, and Mexico) over the period 1990–2009. Only CO 2 is considered, not methane or other greenhouse gases. This synthesis is based on results from three different methods: atmospheric inversion, inventory-based methods and terrestrial biosphere modeling. All methods indicate thatmore » the North American land surface was a sink for atmospheric CO 2, with a net transfer from atmosphere to land. Estimates ranged from -890 to -280 Tg C yr -1, where the mean of atmospheric inversion estimates forms the lower bound of that range (a larger land sink) and the inventory-based estimate using the production approach the upper (a smaller land sink). This relatively large range is due in part to differences in how the approaches represent trade, fire and other disturbances and which ecosystems they include. Integrating across estimates, \\"best\\" estimates (i.e., measures of central tendency) are -472 ± 281 Tg C yr -1 based on the mean and standard deviation of the distribution and -360 Tg C yr -1 (with an interquartile range of -496 to -337) based on the median. Considering both the fossil fuel emissions source and the land sink, our analysis shows that North America was, however, a net contributor to the growth of CO 2 in the atmosphere in the late 20th and early 21st century. With North America's mean annual fossil fuel CO 2 emissions for the period 1990–2009 equal to 1720 Tg C yr -1 and assuming the estimate of -472 Tg C yr -1 as an approximation of the true terrestrial CO 2 sink, the continent's source : sink ratio for this time period was 1720:472, or nearly 4:1.« less

North America's net terrestrial CO2 exchange with the atmosphere 1990–2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

King, A.W.; Andres, R.J.; Davis, K.J.; Hafer, M.; Hayes, D.J.; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; de Jong, Bernardus; Kurz, W.A.; McGuire, A. David; Vargas, Rodrigo I.; Wei, Y.; West, Tristram O.; Woodall, Christopher W.

2015-01-01

Scientific understanding of the global carbon cycle is required for developing national and international policy to mitigate fossil fuel CO2 emissions by managing terrestrial carbon uptake. Toward that understanding and as a contribution to the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) project, this paper provides a synthesis of net land–atmosphere CO2 exchange for North America (Canada, United States, and Mexico) over the period 1990–2009. Only CO2 is considered, not methane or other greenhouse gases. This synthesis is based on results from three different methods: atmospheric inversion, inventory-based methods and terrestrial biosphere modeling. All methods indicate that the North American land surface was a sink for atmospheric CO2, with a net transfer from atmosphere to land. Estimates ranged from −890 to −280 Tg C yr−1, where the mean of atmospheric inversion estimates forms the lower bound of that range (a larger land sink) and the inventory-based estimate using the production approach the upper (a smaller land sink). This relatively large range is due in part to differences in how the approaches represent trade, fire and other disturbances and which ecosystems they include. Integrating across estimates, "best" estimates (i.e., measures of central tendency) are −472 ± 281 Tg C yr−1 based on the mean and standard deviation of the distribution and −360 Tg C yr−1 (with an interquartile range of −496 to −337) based on the median. Considering both the fossil fuel emissions source and the land sink, our analysis shows that North America was, however, a net contributor to the growth of CO2 in the atmosphere in the late 20th and early 21st century. With North America's mean annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions for the period 1990–2009 equal to 1720 Tg C yr−1 and assuming the estimate of −472 Tg C yr−1 as an approximation of the true terrestrial CO2 sink, the continent's source : sink ratio for this time period was 1720:472, or nearly 4:1.

North America's net terrestrial CO 2 exchange with the atmosphere 1990–2009

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

King, Anthony W.; Andres, Robert; Davis, Kenneth J.

Scientific understanding of the global carbon cycle is required for developing national and international policy to mitigate fossil fuel CO 2 emissions by managing terrestrial carbon uptake. Toward that understanding and as a contribution to the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) project, this paper provides a synthesis of net land–atmosphere CO 2 exchange for North America (Canada, United States, and Mexico) over the period 1990–2009. Only CO 2 is considered, not methane or other greenhouse gases. This synthesis is based on results from three different methods: atmospheric inversion, inventory-based methods and terrestrial biosphere modeling. All methods indicate thatmore » the North American land surface was a sink for atmospheric CO 2, with a net transfer from atmosphere to land. Estimates ranged from -890 to -280 Tg C yr -1, where the mean of atmospheric inversion estimates forms the lower bound of that range (a larger land sink) and the inventory-based estimate using the production approach the upper (a smaller land sink). This relatively large range is due in part to differences in how the approaches represent trade, fire and other disturbances and which ecosystems they include. Integrating across estimates, \\"best\\" estimates (i.e., measures of central tendency) are -472 ± 281 Tg C yr -1 based on the mean and standard deviation of the distribution and -360 Tg C yr -1 (with an interquartile range of -496 to -337) based on the median. Considering both the fossil fuel emissions source and the land sink, our analysis shows that North America was, however, a net contributor to the growth of CO 2 in the atmosphere in the late 20th and early 21st century. With North America's mean annual fossil fuel CO 2 emissions for the period 1990–2009 equal to 1720 Tg C yr -1 and assuming the estimate of -472 Tg C yr -1 as an approximation of the true terrestrial CO 2 sink, the continent's source : sink ratio for this time period was 1720:472, or nearly 4:1.« less

RIEGER-TYPE PERIODICITY DURING SOLAR CYCLES 14–24: ESTIMATION OF DYNAMO MAGNETIC FIELD STRENGTH IN THE SOLAR INTERIOR

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gurgenashvili, Eka; Zaqarashvili, Teimuraz V.; Kukhianidze, Vasil

2016-07-20

Solar activity undergoes a variation over timescales of several months known as Rieger-type periodicity, which usually occurs near maxima of sunspot cycles. An early analysis showed that the periodicity appears only in some cycles and is absent in other cycles. But the appearance/absence during different cycles has not been explained. We performed a wavelet analysis of sunspot data from the Greenwich Royal Observatory and the Royal Observatory of Belgium during cycles 14–24. We found that the Rieger-type periods occur in all cycles, but they are cycle dependent: shorter periods occur during stronger cycles. Our analysis revealed a periodicity of 185–195more » days during the weak cycles 14–15 and 24 and a periodicity of 155–165 days during the stronger cycles 16–23. We derived the dispersion relation of the spherical harmonics of the magnetic Rossby waves in the presence of differential rotation and a toroidal magnetic field in the dynamo layer near the base of the convection zone. This showed that the harmonics of fast Rossby waves with m = 1 and n = 4, where m ( n ) indicates the toroidal (poloidal) wavenumbers, perfectly fit with the observed periodicity. The variation of the toroidal field strength from weaker to stronger cycles may lead to the different periods found in those cycles, which explains the observed enigmatic feature of the Rieger-type periodicity. Finally, we used the observed periodicity to estimate the dynamo field strength during cycles 14–24. Our estimations suggest a field strength of ∼40 kG for the stronger cycles and ∼20 kG for the weaker cycles.« less

Health impact assessment of cycling network expansions in European cities.

PubMed

Mueller, Natalie; Rojas-Rueda, David; Salmon, Maëlle; Martinez, David; Ambros, Albert; Brand, Christian; de Nazelle, Audrey; Dons, Evi; Gaupp-Berghausen, Mailin; Gerike, Regine; Götschi, Thomas; Iacorossi, Francesco; Int Panis, Luc; Kahlmeier, Sonja; Raser, Elisabeth; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark

2018-04-01

We conducted a health impact assessment (HIA) of cycling network expansions in seven European cities. We modeled the association between cycling network length and cycling mode share and estimated health impacts of the expansion of cycling networks. First, we performed a non-linear least square regression to assess the relationship between cycling network length and cycling mode share for 167 European cities. Second, we conducted a quantitative HIA for the seven cities of different scenarios (S) assessing how an expansion of the cycling network [i.e. 10% (S1); 50% (S2); 100% (S3), and all-streets (S4)] would lead to an increase in cycling mode share and estimated mortality impacts thereof. We quantified mortality impacts for changes in physical activity, air pollution and traffic incidents. Third, we conducted a cost-benefit analysis. The cycling network length was associated with a cycling mode share of up to 24.7% in European cities. The all-streets scenario (S4) produced greatest benefits through increases in cycling for London with 1,210 premature deaths (95% CI: 447-1,972) avoidable annually, followed by Rome (433; 95% CI: 170-695), Barcelona (248; 95% CI: 86-410), Vienna (146; 95% CI: 40-252), Zurich (58; 95% CI: 16-100) and Antwerp (7; 95% CI: 3-11). The largest cost-benefit ratios were found for the 10% increase in cycling networks (S1). If all 167 European cities achieved a cycling mode share of 24.7% over 10,000 premature deaths could be avoided annually. In European cities, expansions of cycling networks were associated with increases in cycling and estimated to provide health and economic benefits. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of real-world driving cycles and estimation of emission factors for in-use light-duty gasoline vehicles in urban areas.

PubMed

Hwa, Mei-Yin; Yu, Tai-Yi

2014-07-01

This investigation adopts vehicle tracking manner to establish real-world driving patterns and estimates emission factors with dynamometers with 23 traffic-driving variables for 384 in-use light-duty passenger vehicles during non-rush hour. Adequate numbers of driving variables were decided with factor analysis and cluster analysis. The dynamometer tests were performed on FTP75 cycle and five local driving cycles derived from real-world speed profiles. Results presented that local driving cycles and FTP75 cycle were completely different in driving characteristic parameters of typical driving cycles and emission factors. The highest values of emission factor ratios of local driving cycle and FTP75 cycle for CO, NMHC, NO x , CH4, and CO2 were 1.38, 1.65, 1.58, 1.39, and 1.14, respectively.

Projecting LED product life based on application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narendran, Nadarajah; Liu, Yi-wei; Mou, Xi; Thotagamuwa, Dinusha R.; Eshwarage, Oshadhi V. Madihe

2016-09-01

LED products have started to displace traditional light sources in many lighting applications. One of the commonly claimed benefits for LED lighting products is their long useful lifetime in applications. Today there are many replacement lamp products using LEDs in the marketplace. Typically, lifetime claims of these replacement lamps are in the 25,000-hour range. According to current industry practice, the time for the LED light output to reach the 70% value is estimated according to IESNA LM-80 and TM-21 procedures and the resulting value is reported as the whole system life. LED products generally experience different thermal environments and switching (on-off cycling) patterns when used in applications. Current industry test methods often do not produce accurate lifetime estimates for LED systems because only one component of the system, namely the LED, is tested under a continuous-on burning condition without switching on and off, and because they estimate for only one failure type, lumen depreciation. The objective of the study presented in this manuscript was to develop a test method that could help predict LED system life in any application by testing the whole LED system, including on-off power cycling with sufficient dwell time, and considering both failure types, catastrophic and parametric. The study results showed for the LED A-lamps tested in this study, both failure types, catastrophic and parametric, exist. The on-off cycling encourages catastrophic failure, and maximum operating temperature influences the lumen depreciation rate and parametric failure time. It was also clear that LED system life is negatively affected by on-off switching, contrary to commonly held belief. In addition, the study results showed that most of the LED systems failed catastrophically much ahead of the LED light output reaching the 70% value. This emphasizes the fact that life testing of LED systems must consider catastrophic failure in addition to lumen depreciation, and the shorter of the two failure modes must be selected as the system life. The results of this study show a shorter time test procedure can be developed to accurately predict LED system life in any application by knowing the LED temperature and the switching cycle.

Host selection and gonotrophic cycle length of Anopheles punctimacula in southern Mexico.

PubMed

Ulloa, Armando; Gonzalez-Cerón, Lilia; Rodríguez, Mario H

2006-12-01

The host preference, survival rates, and length of the gonotrophic cycle of Anopheles punctimacula was investigated in southern México. Mosquitoes were collected in 15-day separate experiments during the rainy and dry seasons. Daily changes in the parous-nulliparous ratio were recorded and the gonotrophic cycle length was estimated by a time series analysis. Anopheles punctimacula was most abundant during the dry season and preferred animals to humans. The daily survival rate in mosquitoes collected in animal traps was 0.96 (parity rate = 0.86; gonotrophic cycle = 4 days). The length of gonotrophic cycle of 4 days was estimated on the base of a high correlation coefficient value appearing every 4 days. The minimum time estimated for developing mature eggs after blood feeding was 72 h. The proportion of mosquitoes living enough to transmit Plasmodium vivax malaria during the dry season was 0.35.

Application of Avco data analysis and prediction techniques (ADAPT) to prediction of sunspot activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hunter, H. E.; Amato, R. A.

1972-01-01

The results are presented of the application of Avco Data Analysis and Prediction Techniques (ADAPT) to derivation of new algorithms for the prediction of future sunspot activity. The ADAPT derived algorithms show a factor of 2 to 3 reduction in the expected 2-sigma errors in the estimates of the 81-day running average of the Zurich sunspot numbers. The report presents: (1) the best estimates for sunspot cycles 20 and 21, (2) a comparison of the ADAPT performance with conventional techniques, and (3) specific approaches to further reduction in the errors of estimated sunspot activity and to recovery of earlier sunspot historical data. The ADAPT programs are used both to derive regression algorithm for prediction of the entire 11-year sunspot cycle from the preceding two cycles and to derive extrapolation algorithms for extrapolating a given sunspot cycle based on any available portion of the cycle.

Identification of FOPDT and SOPDT process dynamics using closed loop test.

PubMed

Bajarangbali, Raghunath; Majhi, Somanath; Pandey, Saurabh

2014-07-01

In this paper, identification of stable and unstable first order, second order overdamped and underdamped process dynamics with time delay is presented. Relay with hysteresis is used to induce a limit cycle output and using this information, unknown process model parameters are estimated. State space based generalized analytical expressions are derived to achieve accurate results. To show the performance of the proposed method expressions are also derived for systems with a zero. In real time systems, measurement noise is an important issue during identification of process dynamics. A relay with hysteresis reduces the effect of measurement noise, in addition a new multiloop control strategy is proposed to recover the original limit cycle. Simulation results are included to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of deterministic and stochastic approaches for isotopic concentration and decay heat uncertainty quantification on elementary fission pulse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahaye, S.; Huynh, T. D.; Tsilanizara, A.

2016-03-01

Uncertainty quantification of interest outputs in nuclear fuel cycle is an important issue for nuclear safety, from nuclear facilities to long term deposits. Most of those outputs are functions of the isotopic vector density which is estimated by fuel cycle codes, such as DARWIN/PEPIN2, MENDEL, ORIGEN or FISPACT. CEA code systems DARWIN/PEPIN2 and MENDEL propagate by two different methods the uncertainty from nuclear data inputs to isotopic concentrations and decay heat. This paper shows comparisons between those two codes on a Uranium-235 thermal fission pulse. Effects of nuclear data evaluation's choice (ENDF/B-VII.1, JEFF-3.1.1 and JENDL-2011) is inspected in this paper. All results show good agreement between both codes and methods, ensuring the reliability of both approaches for a given evaluation.

Electron requirements for carbon incorporation along a diel light cycle in three marine diatom species.

PubMed

Morelle, Jérôme; Claquin, Pascal

2018-02-23

Diatoms account for about 40% of primary production in highly productive ecosystems. The development of a new generation of fluorometers has made it possible to improve estimation of the electron transport rate from photosystem II, which, when coupled with the carbon incorporation rate enables estimation of the electrons required for carbon fixation. The aim of this study was to investigate the daily dynamics of these electron requirements as a function of the diel light cycle in three relevant diatom species and to apprehend if the method of estimating the electron transport rate can lead to different pictures of the dynamics. The results confirmed the species-dependent capacity for photoacclimation under increasing light levels. Despite daily variations in the photosynthetic parameters, the results of this study underline the low daily variability of the electron requirements estimated using functional absorption of the photosystem II compared to an estimation based on a specific absorption cross section of chlorophyll a. The stability of the electron requirements throughout the day would suggest it is potentially possible to estimate high-frequency primary production by using autonomous variable fluorescence measurements from ships-of-opportunity or moorings, without taking potential daily variation in this parameter into consideration, but this result has to be confirmed on natural phytoplankton assemblages. The results obtained in this study confirm the low electron requirements of diatoms to perform photosynthesis, and suggest a potential additional source of energy for carbon fixation, as recently described in the literature for this class.

The seminiferous epithelium cycle and daily spermatic production in the adult maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus, Illiger, 1811).

PubMed

Bitencourt, Viviane Lewicki; de Paula, Tarcízio Antônio Rego; da Matta, Sérgio Luis Pinto; Fonseca, Cláudio César; dos Anjos Benjamin, Laércio; Costa, Deiler Sampaio

2007-01-01

The duration of the seminiferous epithelium cycle was estimated in adult maned wolves (Chrysocyon brachyurus, Illiger, 1811), by applying intratesticular injections with tritiated thymidine. The total duration of the seminiferous epithelium cycle in this species was calculated in 8.99 days. So, taking into account that approximately 4.5 cycles of the seminiferous epithelium are necessary for the whole spermatogenesis process to complete, the production of spermatozoa from one spermatogonia will take about 40.45 days. The duration of the spermiogenesis was calculated to be 12.3 days. The eight stages of the seminiferous epithelium cycle were described by the tubular morphology method, which is based either on the form and position of the spermatid nuclei and the occurrence of meiotic divisions. The values of the relative frequency for the pre-meiotic, meiotic and post-meiotic phases in this species were 3.5, 0.78 and 4.8 days, respectively. The maned wolf produces about 29 million spermatozoa a day for each testis gram, therefore being classified among the species provided with a high spermatogenetic efficiency.

Combining remote sensing and water-balance evapotranspiration estimates for the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reitz, Meredith; Senay, Gabriel; Sanford, Ward E.

2017-01-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the hydrologic cycle, accounting for ~70% of precipitation in the conterminous U.S. (CONUS), but it has been a challenge to predict accurately across different spatio-temporal scales. The increasing availability of remotely sensed data has led to significant advances in the frequency and spatial resolution of ET estimates, derived from energy balance principles with variables such as temperature used to estimate surface latent heat flux. Although remote sensing methods excel at depicting spatial and temporal variability, estimation of ET independently of other water budget components can lead to inconsistency with other budget terms. Methods that rely on ground-based data better constrain long-term ET, but are unable to provide the same temporal resolution. Here we combine long-term ET estimates from a water-balance approach with the SSEBop (operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance) remote sensing-based ET product for 2000–2015. We test the new combined method, the original SSEBop product, and another remote sensing ET product (MOD16) against monthly measurements from 119 flux towers. The new product showed advantages especially in non-irrigated areas where the new method showed a coefficient of determination R2 of 0.44, compared to 0.41 for SSEBop or 0.35 for MOD16. The resulting monthly data set will be a useful, unique contribution to ET estimation, due to its combination of remote sensing-based variability and ground-based long-term water balance constraints.

Life cycle water use for electricity generation: a review and harmonization of literature estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meldrum, J.; Nettles-Anderson, S.; Heath, G.; Macknick, J.

2013-03-01

This article provides consolidated estimates of water withdrawal and water consumption for the full life cycle of selected electricity generating technologies, which includes component manufacturing, fuel acquisition, processing, and transport, and power plant operation and decommissioning. Estimates were gathered through a broad search of publicly available sources, screened for quality and relevance, and harmonized for methodological differences. Published estimates vary substantially, due in part to differences in production pathways, in defined boundaries, and in performance parameters. Despite limitations to available data, we find that: water used for cooling of thermoelectric power plants dominates the life cycle water use in most cases; the coal, natural gas, and nuclear fuel cycles require substantial water per megawatt-hour in most cases; and, a substantial proportion of life cycle water use per megawatt-hour is required for the manufacturing and construction of concentrating solar, geothermal, photovoltaic, and wind power facilities. On the basis of the best available evidence for the evaluated technologies, total life cycle water use appears lowest for electricity generated by photovoltaics and wind, and highest for thermoelectric generation technologies. This report provides the foundation for conducting water use impact assessments of the power sector while also identifying gaps in data that could guide future research.

Averaged Propulsive Body Acceleration (APBA) Can Be Calculated from Biologging Tags That Incorporate Gyroscopes and Accelerometers to Estimate Swimming Speed, Hydrodynamic Drag and Energy Expenditure for Steller Sea Lions

PubMed Central

Trites, Andrew W.; Rosen, David A. S.; Potvin, Jean

2016-01-01

Forces due to propulsion should approximate forces due to hydrodynamic drag for animals horizontally swimming at a constant speed with negligible buoyancy forces. Propulsive forces should also correlate with energy expenditures associated with locomotion—an important cost of foraging. As such, biologging tags containing accelerometers are being used to generate proxies for animal energy expenditures despite being unable to distinguish rotational movements from linear movements. However, recent miniaturizations of gyroscopes offer the possibility of resolving this shortcoming and obtaining better estimates of body accelerations of swimming animals. We derived accelerations using gyroscope data for swimming Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus), and determined how well the measured accelerations correlated with actual swimming speeds and with theoretical drag. We also compared dive averaged dynamic body acceleration estimates that incorporate gyroscope data, with the widely used Overall Dynamic Body Acceleration (ODBA) metric, which does not use gyroscope data. Four Steller sea lions equipped with biologging tags were trained to swim alongside a boat cruising at steady speeds in the range of 4 to 10 kph. At each speed, and for each dive, we computed a measure called Gyro-Informed Dynamic Acceleration (GIDA) using a method incorporating gyroscope data with accelerometer data. We derived a new metric—Averaged Propulsive Body Acceleration (APBA), which is the average gain in speed per flipper stroke divided by mean stroke cycle duration. Our results show that the gyro-based measure (APBA) is a better predictor of speed than ODBA. We also found that APBA can estimate average thrust production during a single stroke-glide cycle, and can be used to estimate energy expended during swimming. The gyroscope-derived methods we describe should be generally applicable in swimming animals where propulsive accelerations can be clearly identified in the signal—and they should also prove useful for dead-reckoning and improving estimates of energy expenditures from locomotion. PMID:27285467

Retrieving Baseflow from SWOT Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baratelli, F.; Flipo, N.; Biancamaria, S.; Rivière, A.

2017-12-01

The quantification of aquifer contribution to river discharge is of primary importance to evaluate the impact of climatic and anthropogenic stresses on the availability of water resources. Several baseflow estimation methods require river discharge measurements, which can be difficult to obtain at high spatio-temporal resolution for large scale basins. The SWOT satellite mission will provide discharge estimations for large rivers (50 - 100 m wide) even in remote basins. The frequency of these estimations depends on the position and ranges from zero to four values in the 21-days satellite cycle. This work aims at answering the following question: can baseflow be estimated from SWOT observations during the mission lifetime? An algorithm based on hydrograph separation by Chapman's filter was developed to automatically estimate the baseflow in a river network at regional or larger scale (> 10000 km2). The algorithm was first applied using the discharge time series simulated at daily time step by a coupled hydrological-hydrogeological model to obtain the reference baseflow estimations. The same algorithm is then forced with discharge time series sampled at SWOT observation frequency. The methodology was applied to the Seine River basin (65000 km2, France). The results show that the average baseflow is estimated with good accuracy for all the reaches which are observed at least once per cycle (relative bias less than 4%). The time evolution of baseflow is also rather well retrieved, with a Nash coefficient which is more than 0.7 for 94% of the network length. This work provides new potential for the SWOT mission in terms of global hydrological analysis.

Joint nonlinearity effects in the design of a flexible truss structure control system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mercadal, Mathieu

1986-01-01

Nonlinear effects are introduced in the dynamics of large space truss structures by the connecting joints which are designed with rather important tolerances to facilitate the assembly of the structures in space. The purpose was to develop means to investigate the nonlinear dynamics of the structures, particularly the limit cycles that might occur when active control is applied to the structures. An analytical method was sought and derived to predict the occurrence of limit cycles and to determine their stability. This method is mainly based on the quasi-linearization of every joint using describing functions. This approach was proven successful when simple dynamical systems were tested. Its applicability to larger systems depends on the amount of computations it requires, and estimates of the computational task tend to indicate that the number of individual sources of nonlinearity should be limited. Alternate analytical approaches, which do not account for every single nonlinearity, or the simulation of a simplified model of the dynamical system should, therefore, be investigated to determine a more effective way to predict limit cycles in large dynamical systems with an important number of distributed nonlinearities.

Life cycle assessment of vehicle lightweighting: a physics-based model of mass-induced fuel consumption.

PubMed

Kim, Hyung Chul; Wallington, Timothy J

2013-12-17

Lightweighting is a key strategy used to improve vehicle fuel economy. Replacing conventional materials (e.g., steel) with lighter alternatives (e.g., aluminum, magnesium, and composites) decreases energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during vehicle use, but often increases energy consumption and GHG emissions during materials and vehicle production. Assessing the life-cycle benefits of mass reduction requires a quantitative description of the mass-induced fuel consumption during vehicle use. A new physics-based method for estimating mass-induced fuel consumption (MIF) is proposed. We illustrate the utility of this method by using publicly available data to calculate MIF values in the range of 0.2-0.5 L/(100 km 100 kg) based on 106 records of fuel economy tests by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for 2013 model year vehicles. Lightweighting is shown to have the most benefit when applied to vehicles with high fuel consumption and high power. Use of the physics-based model presented here would place future life cycle assessment studies of vehicle lightweighting on a firmer scientific foundation.

Estimating the relative contributions of human withdrawals and climate variability to changes in groundwater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swenson, S. C.; Lawrence, D. M.

2014-12-01

Estimating the relative contributions of human withdrawals and climate variability to changes in groundwater is a challenging task at present. One method that has been used recently is a model-data synthesis combining GRACE total water storage estimates with simulated water storage estimates from land surface models. In this method, water storage changes due to natural climate variations simulated by a model are removed from total water storage changes observed by GRACE; the residual is then interpreted as anthropogenic groundwater change. If the modeled water storage estimate contains systematic errors, these errors will also be present in the residual groundwater estimate. For example, simulations performed with the Community Land Model (CLM; the land component of the Community Earth System Model) generally show a weak (as much as 50% smaller) seasonal cycle of water storage in semi-arid regions when compared to GRACE satellite water storage estimates. This bias propagates into GRACE-CLM anthropogenic groundwater change estimates, which then exhibit unphysical seasonal variability. The CLM bias can be traced to the parameterization of soil evaporative resistance. Incorporating a new soil resistance parameterization in CLM greatly reduces the seasonal bias with respect to GRACE. In this study, we compare the improved CLM water storage estimates to GRACE and discuss the implications for estimates of anthropogenic groundwater withdrawal, showing examples for the Middle East and Southwestern United States.

Monitoring of freeze-thaw cycles in concrete using embedded sensors and ultrasonic imaging.

PubMed

Ranz, Javier; Aparicio, Sofía; Romero, Héctor; Casati, María Jesús; Molero, Miguel; González, Margarita

2014-01-29

This paper deals with the study of damage produced during freeze-thaw (F-T) cycles using two non-destructive measurement approaches-the first approach devoted to continuous monitoring using embedded sensors during the cycles, and the second one, performing ultrasonic imaging before and after the cycles. Both methodologies have been tested in two different types of concrete specimens, with and without air-entraining agents. Using the first measurement approach, the size and distribution of pores were estimated using a thermoporometrical model and continuous measurements of temperature and ultrasonic velocity along cycles. These estimates have been compared with the results obtained using mercury porosimetry testing. In the second approach, the damage due to F-T cycles has been evaluated by automated ultrasonic transmission and pulse-echo inspections made before and after the cycles. With these inspections the variations in the dimensions, velocity and attenuation caused by the accelerated F-T cycles were determined.

Monitoring of Freeze-Thaw Cycles in Concrete Using Embedded Sensors and Ultrasonic Imaging

PubMed Central

Ranz, Javier; Aparicio, Sofía; Romero, Héctor; Casati, María Jesús; Molero, Miguel; González, Margarita

2014-01-01

This paper deals with the study of damage produced during freeze-thaw (F-T) cycles using two non-destructive measurement approaches—the first approach devoted to continuous monitoring using embedded sensors during the cycles, and the second one, performing ultrasonic imaging before and after the cycles. Both methodologies have been tested in two different types of concrete specimens, with and without air-entraining agents. Using the first measurement approach, the size and distribution of pores were estimated using a thermoporometrical model and continuous measurements of temperature and ultrasonic velocity along cycles. These estimates have been compared with the results obtained using mercury porosimetry testing. In the second approach, the damage due to F-T cycles has been evaluated by automated ultrasonic transmission and pulse-echo inspections made before and after the cycles. With these inspections the variations in the dimensions, velocity and attenuation caused by the accelerated F-T cycles were determined. PMID:24481231

Estimation of Biomass Burning Emissions by Fusing Fire Radiative Power Observed from Polar-orbiting and Geostationary Satellites across the Continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, F.; Zhang, X.; Kondragunta, S.

2016-12-01

Trace gases and aerosols released from biomass burning significantly disturb the energy balance of the Earth and also degrade regional air quality. However, biomass burning emissions (BBE) have been poorly estimated using the traditional bottom-up approach because of the substantial uncertainties in the burned area and fuel loads. Recently, Fire Radiative Power (FRP) derived from satellite fire observations enables the estimation of BBE at multiple spatial scales in near real time. Nonetheless, it is very challenging to accurately produce reliable FRP diurnal cycles from either polar-orbiting satellites or geostationary satellites for the calculation of the temporally integrated FRP, Fire Radiative Energy (FRE). Here we reconstruct FRP diurnal cycles by fusing FRP observed from polar-orbiting and geostationary satellites and estimate BBE from 2011 to 2015 across the Continental United States. Specifically, FRP from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) is preprocessed and calibrated using the collocated and concurred observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) over Landsat TM burn scars. The climatologically diurnal FRP curves are then calculated from the calibrated GOES FRP for the 25 Bailey's ecoregions. By fitting MODIS FRP and the calibrated GOES FRP to the climatological curves, FRP diurnal cycles are further reconstructed for individual days at a 0.25-degree grid. Both FRE estimated from FRP diurnal cycles and ecoregion specified FRE combustion rates are used to estimate hourly BBE. The estimated BBE is finally evaluated using QFED and GFED4.0 inventories and emissions modeled using Landsat TM 30m burn severities and 30m fuel loading from Fuel Characteristic Classification System. The results show that BBE estimates are greatly improved by using the reconstructed FRP diurnal cycles from high temporal (GOES) and high spatial resolution (MODIS) FRP observations.

Predicting the Size of Sunspot Cycle 24 on the Basis of Single- and Bi-Variate Geomagnetic Precursor Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

2009-01-01

Examined are single- and bi-variate geomagnetic precursors for predicting the maximum amplitude (RM) of a sunspot cycle several years in advance. The best single-variate fit is one based on the average of the ap index 36 mo prior to cycle minimum occurrence (E(Rm)), having a coefficient of correlation (r) equal to 0.97 and a standard error of estimate (se) equal to 9.3. Presuming cycle 24 not to be a statistical outlier and its minimum in March 2008, the fit suggests cycle 24 s RM to be about 69 +/- 20 (the 90% prediction interval). The weighted mean prediction of 11 statistically important single-variate fits is 116 +/- 34. The best bi-variate fit is one based on the maximum and minimum values of the 12-mma of the ap index; i.e., APM# and APm*, where # means the value post-E(RM) for the preceding cycle and * means the value in the vicinity of cycle minimum, having r = 0.98 and se = 8.2. It predicts cycle 24 s RM to be about 92 +/- 27. The weighted mean prediction of 22 statistically important bi-variate fits is 112 32. Thus, cycle 24's RM is expected to lie somewhere within the range of about 82 to 144. Also examined are the late-cycle 23 behaviors of geomagnetic indices and solar wind velocity in comparison to the mean behaviors of cycles 2023 and the geomagnetic indices of cycle 14 (RM = 64.2), the weakest sunspot cycle of the modern era.

Harmonization of initial estimates of shale gas life cycle greenhouse gas emissions for electric power generation.

PubMed

Heath, Garvin A; O'Donoughue, Patrick; Arent, Douglas J; Bazilian, Morgan

2014-08-05

Recent technological advances in the recovery of unconventional natural gas, particularly shale gas, have served to dramatically increase domestic production and reserve estimates for the United States and internationally. This trend has led to lowered prices and increased scrutiny on production practices. Questions have been raised as to how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the life cycle of shale gas production and use compares with that of conventionally produced natural gas or other fuel sources such as coal. Recent literature has come to different conclusions on this point, largely due to differing assumptions, comparison baselines, and system boundaries. Through a meta-analytical procedure we call harmonization, we develop robust, analytically consistent, and updated comparisons of estimates of life cycle GHG emissions for electricity produced from shale gas, conventionally produced natural gas, and coal. On a per-unit electrical output basis, harmonization reveals that median estimates of GHG emissions from shale gas-generated electricity are similar to those for conventional natural gas, with both approximately half that of the central tendency of coal. Sensitivity analysis on the harmonized estimates indicates that assumptions regarding liquids unloading and estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of wells have the greatest influence on life cycle GHG emissions, whereby shale gas life cycle GHG emissions could approach the range of best-performing coal-fired generation under certain scenarios. Despite clarification of published estimates through harmonization, these initial assessments should be confirmed through methane emissions measurements at components and in the atmosphere and through better characterization of EUR and practices.

Harmonization of initial estimates of shale gas life cycle greenhouse gas emissions for electric power generation

PubMed Central

Heath, Garvin A.; O’Donoughue, Patrick; Arent, Douglas J.; Bazilian, Morgan

2014-01-01

Recent technological advances in the recovery of unconventional natural gas, particularly shale gas, have served to dramatically increase domestic production and reserve estimates for the United States and internationally. This trend has led to lowered prices and increased scrutiny on production practices. Questions have been raised as to how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the life cycle of shale gas production and use compares with that of conventionally produced natural gas or other fuel sources such as coal. Recent literature has come to different conclusions on this point, largely due to differing assumptions, comparison baselines, and system boundaries. Through a meta-analytical procedure we call harmonization, we develop robust, analytically consistent, and updated comparisons of estimates of life cycle GHG emissions for electricity produced from shale gas, conventionally produced natural gas, and coal. On a per-unit electrical output basis, harmonization reveals that median estimates of GHG emissions from shale gas-generated electricity are similar to those for conventional natural gas, with both approximately half that of the central tendency of coal. Sensitivity analysis on the harmonized estimates indicates that assumptions regarding liquids unloading and estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of wells have the greatest influence on life cycle GHG emissions, whereby shale gas life cycle GHG emissions could approach the range of best-performing coal-fired generation under certain scenarios. Despite clarification of published estimates through harmonization, these initial assessments should be confirmed through methane emissions measurements at components and in the atmosphere and through better characterization of EUR and practices. PMID:25049378

A novel method for quantifying the greenhouse gas emissions of biofuels based on historical land use change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Rhodes, J.; Clarens, A. F.

2012-12-01

Land use change (LUC) emissions have been at the center of an ongoing debate about how the carbon footprint of biofuels compare to petroleum-based fuels over their entire life cycle. The debate about LUC has important implications in the US, the EU, and other countries that are working to deploy biofuel policies, informed by life cycle assessment, that promote carbon emission reductions, among other things. LUC calculations often distinguish between direct land use change (DLUC), those that occur onsite, and indirect land use change (ILUC), those that result from market mechanisms leading to emissions that are either spatially or temporally removed from the agricultural activity. These designations are intended to capture the fundamental connection between agricultural production of biofuel feedstock and its physical effects on the land, but both DLUC and ILUC can be difficult to measure and apply broadly. ILUC estimates are especially challenging to quantify because they rely on global economic models to assess how much land would be brought into production in other countries as a consequence of biofuel feedstock cultivation. As a result, ILUC estimates inherently uncertain, are sensitive to complex assumptions, have limited transparency, and have precipitated sufficient controversy to delay development of coherent biofuel policies. To address these shortcomings of conventional LUC methodologies, we have developed a method for estimating land use change emissions that is based on historical emissions from a parcel of land. The method, which we call historical land use change (HLUC) can be readily quantified for any parcel of land in the world using open source datasets of historical emissions. HLUC is easy to use and is directly tied to the physical processes on land used for biofuel production. The emissions from the HLUC calculations are allocated between historical agricultural activity and proposed biofuel feedstock cultivation. This is compatible with existing life cycle assessment frameworks. HLUC does not represent a direct substitute for conventional ILUC estimates but rather an alternate approach for capturing LUC emissions overall. HLUC estimates for six biofuel producing countries: US (corn ethanol), Brazil (sugarcane ethanol), France (rapeseed biodiesel), Germany (rapeseed biodiesel), Indonesia (palm oil biodiesel), and Malaysia (palm oil biodiesel) were developed. The values are highly comparable to published ILUC values but the nature and magnitude of the uncertainty is lower and the estimates are more regionally variable. Important differences were found between government-derived LUC estimates and HLUC estimates in Brazil and South Asia, which suggest that HLUC could be a more equitable means for allocating emissions than existing approaches. Sensitivity analysis in terms of the spatial resolution of the data suggest that the open source data sets are adequate for obtaining reasonable estimates of HLUC with minimal effort. Alternative allocation scenarios could consider some of the climate dynamics, e.g., carbon degradation in the atmosphere, that would inform more sophisticated accounting. HLUC represents a more straightforward and less controversial policy tool for capturing the emissions associated for land use change and it could enable the advancement of coherent biofuel and climate policy instruments.

Comparison of Methods for Determining Aerobic Exercise Intensity Using Heart Rate in Acute Leukemia Patients Prior to Induction Chemotherapy

PubMed Central

Story, Christina; Bryant, Ashley Leak; Phillips, Brett; Bailey, Charlotte; Shields, Edgar W.; Battaglini, Claudio

2018-01-01

Introduction Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET), the gold standard of cardiopulmonary evaluation, is used to determine VO2 levels at different aerobic exercise training intensities; however, it may not be feasible to conduct CPET in all clinical settings. Aims To compare the heart rate reserve (HRR) and percent of 220-age methods for prescribing cycle ergometry exercise intensity using heart rate (HR) against the HRs obtained during a CPET in adults undergoing treatment for acute leukemia (AL). Methods In this exploratory study, part of a larger randomized controlled trial, 14 adults with AL completed CPET on a cycle ergometer with indirect calorimetry within 96 hr of admission to a cancer hospital to determine VO2peak and HR corresponding to low (40% VO2peak), moderate (60% VO2peak), and high (75% VO2peak) exercise intensities. Analyses of variance were used to compare estimated HR for each intensity level using the HRR and percent of 220-age methods with HR determined via VO2peak. Results HR corresponding to low-intensity exercise differed significantly across all three methods (p ≤ .05). No significant differences were observed between HR estimated via the percent of 220-age method and determined via VO2peak at moderate (100 ± 8 and 113 ± 24 bpm, p = .122) or high intensities (125 ± 10 and 123 ± 25 bpm, p = .994). Conclusion In adults with AL, HR-based methods for defining aerobic exercise intensities should be used with caution. At low intensity, neither should be used, while at moderate and high intensities, the percent of 220-age equation might serve as an adequate substitute for CPET. PMID:26933148

AN INVERSE MODELING APPROACH FOR STRESS ESTIMATION IN MITRAL VALVE ANTERIOR LEAFLET VALVULOPLASTY FOR IN-VIVO VALVULAR BIOMATERIAL ASSESSMENT

PubMed Central

Lee, Chung-Hao; Amini, Rouzbeh; Gorman, Robert C.; Gorman, Joseph H.; Sacks, Michael S.

2013-01-01

Estimation of regional tissue stresses in the functioning heart valve remains an important goal in our understanding of normal valve function and in developing novel engineered tissue strategies for valvular repair and replacement. Methods to accurately estimate regional tissue stresses are thus needed for this purpose, and in particular to develop accurate, statistically informed means to validate computational models of valve function. Moreover, there exists no currently accepted method to evaluate engineered heart valve tissues and replacement heart valve biomaterials undergoing valvular stresses in blood contact. While we have utilized mitral valve anterior leaflet valvuloplasty as an experimental approach to address this limitation, robust computational techniques to estimate implant stresses are required. In the present study, we developed a novel numerical analysis approach for estimation of the in-vivo stresses of the central region of the mitral valve anterior leaflet (MVAL) delimited by a sonocrystal transducer array. The in-vivo material properties of the MVAL were simulated using an inverse FE modeling approach based on three pseudo-hyperelastic constitutive models: the neo-Hookean, exponential-type isotropic, and full collagen-fiber mapped transversely isotropic models. A series of numerical replications with varying structural configurations were developed by incorporating measured statistical variations in MVAL local preferred fiber directions and fiber splay. These model replications were then used to investigate how known variations in the valve tissue microstructure influence the estimated ROI stresses and its variation at each time point during a cardiac cycle. Simulations were also able to include estimates of the variation in tissue stresses for an individual specimen dataset over the cardiac cycle. Of the three material models, the transversely anisotropic model produced the most accurate results, with ROI averaged stresses at the fully-loaded state of 432.6±46.5 kPa and 241.4±40.5 kPa in the radial and circumferential directions, respectively. We conclude that the present approach can provide robust instantaneous mean and variation estimates of tissue stresses of the central regions of the MVAL. PMID:24275434

Estimating Evapotranspiration Using an Observation Based Terrestrial Water Budget

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodell, Matthew; McWilliams, Eric B.; Famiglietti, James S.; Beaudoing, Hiroko K.; Nigro, Joseph

2011-01-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) is difficult to measure at the scales of climate models and climate variability. While satellite retrieval algorithms do exist, their accuracy is limited by the sparseness of in situ observations available for calibration and validation, which themselves may be unrepresentative of 500m and larger scale satellite footprints and grid pixels. Here, we use a combination of satellite and ground-based observations to close the water budgets of seven continental scale river basins (Mackenzie, Fraser, Nelson, Mississippi, Tocantins, Danube, and Ubangi), estimating mean ET as a residual. For any river basin, ET must equal total precipitation minus net runoff minus the change in total terrestrial water storage (TWS), in order for mass to be conserved. We make use of precipitation from two global observation-based products, archived runoff data, and TWS changes from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite mission. We demonstrate that while uncertainty in the water budget-based estimates of monthly ET is often too large for those estimates to be useful, the uncertainty in the mean annual cycle is small enough that it is practical for evaluating other ET products. Here, we evaluate five land surface model simulations, two operational atmospheric analyses, and a recent global reanalysis product based on our results. An important outcome is that the water budget-based ET time series in two tropical river basins, one in Brazil and the other in central Africa, exhibit a weak annual cycle, which may help to resolve debate about the strength of the annual cycle of ET in such regions and how ET is constrained throughout the year. The methods described will be useful for water and energy budget studies, weather and climate model assessments, and satellite-based ET retrieval optimization.

Modern Estimates of Global Water Cycle Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodell, M.; Beaudoing, H. K.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Olson, W. S.

2014-12-01

The goal of the first phase of the NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) Water and Energy Cycle Climatology project was to develop "state of the global water cycle" and "state of the global energy cycle" assessments based on data from modern ground and space based observing systems and data integrating models. Here we describe results of the water cycle assessment, including mean annual and monthly fluxes over continents and ocean basins during the first decade of the millennium. To the extent possible, the water flux estimates are based on (1) satellite measurements and (2) data-integrating models. A careful accounting of uncertainty in each flux was applied within a routine that enforced multiple water and energy budget constraints simultaneously in a variational framework, in order to produce objectively-determined, optimized estimates. Simultaneous closure of the water and energy budgets caused the ocean evaporation and precipitation terms to increase by about 10% and 5% relative to the original estimates, mainly because the energy budget required turbulent heat fluxes to be substantially larger in order to balance net radiation. In the majority of cases, the observed annual, surface and atmospheric water budgets over the continents and oceans close with much less than 10% residual. Observed residuals and optimized uncertainty estimates are considerably larger for monthly surface and atmospheric water budget closure, often nearing or exceeding 20% in North America, Eurasia, Australia and neighboring islands, and the Arctic and South Atlantic Oceans. The residuals in South America and Africa tend to be smaller, possibly because cold land processes are a non-issue. Fluxes are poorly observed over the Arctic Ocean, certain seas, Antarctica, and the Australasian and Indonesian Islands, leading to reliance on atmospheric analysis estimates. Other details of the study and future directions will be discussed.

Quantification of fluorescent samples by photon-antibunching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurz, Anton; Schwering, Michael; Herten, Dirk-Peter

2012-02-01

Typical problems in molecular biology, like oligomerization of proteins, appear on non-resolvable length scales. Therefore a method which allows counting numbers of fluorescent emitters beyond this barrier can help to unveil these questions. One approach engaging this task makes use of the photon antibunching (PAB) effect. Most fluorophores are single photon emitters. Therefore upon a narrow excitation pulse they might only run through one excitation cycle and emit one photon at a time. This behavior is known as PAB. By analyzing coincident events of photon detections (Coincidence Analysis, CCA ) over many excitation cycles the number of fluorophores residing in the confocal volume can be estimated. Simulations have shown that up to 40 fluorophores can be distinguished with a reasonable error. In follow-up experiments five fluorophores could be distinguished by CCA. In this work the method is applied to a whole sample set and statistical variance and robustness are determined. CCA is critical to several parameters like photo stability, background noise, label efficiency and photopysical properties of the dye, like brightness and blinking. Therefore a reasonable scheme for analysis is introduced and setup parameters are optimized. To proof the superiority of CCA, it has been applied to estimate the number of dyes for a well-defined probe and the results have been compared with bleach step analysis (BS analysis), a method based on the ability to observe single bleach-steps.

Technology management: a perspective on system support, procurement, and replacement planning.

PubMed

Dickerson, M L; Jackson, M E

1992-01-01

The escalating costs associated with medical technology present a host of challenges for the hospital clinical engineering department. As service and support costs comprise ever larger portions of a system's life cycle cost, innovative management of service provider mix and mechanisms can provide substantial savings in operating expenses. In addition to full-service contracts, the use of demand service and independents has become commonplace. Medical equipment maintenance insurance programs provide yet another service alternative, combining the flexibility of demand service with the safety of a capped budget. These programs have gained acceptance among hospitals as their providers have become more focused on the healthcare market and its many needs. In view of the long-term cost impact surrounding technology procurement, the authors recommend that hospitals refine system evaluation methodologies and develop more comprehensive techniques directed at capital equipment replacement planning. One replacement planning approach, based on an estimation of system value changes, is described and illustrated using data collected through client consultations. Although the validity of this method has not been demonstrated, it represents a simplified approach to life cycle cost analysis and is intended to provide a standard method by which system replacement planning may be quantified. As a departure from system devaluation based solely on depreciation, this method estimates prospective system values derived from anticipated operations and maintenance costs, projected revenue, and the availability of new technology.

SU-G-JeP4-02: An Investigation of Respiratory Surrogate Motion Data Requirements for Multiple-Step Ahead Prediction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zawisza, I; Ren, L; Yin, F

Purpose: Respiratory-gated radiotherapy and dynamic tracking employ real-time imaging and surrogate motion-monitoring methods with tumor motion prediction in advance of real-time. This study investigated respiratory motion data length on prediction accuracy of tumor motion. Methods: Predictions generated from the algorithm are validated against a one-dimensional surrogate signal of amplitude versus time. Prediction consists of three major components: extracting top-ranked subcomponents from training data matching the last respiratory cycle; calculating weighting factors from best-matched subcomponents; fusing data proceeding best-matched subcomponents with respective weighting factors to form predictions. Predictions for one respiratory cycle (∼3-6seconds) were assessed using 351 patient data from themore » respiratory management device. Performance was evaluated for correlation coefficient and root mean square error (RMSE) between prediction and final respiratory cycle. Results: Respiratory prediction results fell into two classes, where best predictions for 70 cycles or less performed using relative prediction and greater than 70 cycles are predicted similarly using relative and derivative relative. For 70 respiratory cycles or less, the average correlation between prediction and final respiratory cycle was 0.9999±0.0001, 0.9999±0.0001, 0.9988±0.0003, 0.9985±0.0023, and 0.9981±0.0023 with RMSE values of 0.0091±0.0030, 0.0091±0.0030, 0.0305±0.0051, 0.0299±0.0259, and 0.0299±0.0259 for equal, relative, pattern, derivative equal and derivative relative weighting methods, respectively. Respectively, the total best prediction for each method was 37, 65, 20, 22, and 22. For data with greater than 70 cycles average correlation was 0.9999±0.0001, 0.9999±0.0001, 0.9988±0.0004, 0.9988±0.0020, and 0.9988±0.0020 with RMSE values of 0.0081±0.0031, 0.0082±0.0033, 0.0306±0.0056, 0.0218±0.0222, and 0.0218±0.0222 for equal, relative, pattern, derivative equal and derivative relative weighting methods, respectively. Respectively, the total best prediction for each method was 24, 44, 42, 30, and 45. Conclusion: The prediction algorithms are effective in estimating surrogate motion in advance. These results indicate an advantage in using relative prediction for shorter data and either relative or derivative relative prediction for longer data.« less

Distribution of Slash and Litter After Wet- and Dry-Site Harvesting of Loblolly Pine Plantations

Treesearch

Mark H. Eisenbies; James A. Burger; Yi-Jun Xu; Steve Patterson

2002-01-01

Displacement of logging slash and forest floor litter in the process of harvesting can interfere with forest nutrient cycling and can modify soil climate in ways that could affect regeneration success and forest productivity. The objective of this study was to assess a visual method for estimating organic matter and slash biomass residues following a typical feller-...

Effect of Exercise Intensity on Percent Body Fat Determined by Leg-to-Leg and Segmental Bioelectrical Impedance Analyses in Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andreacci, Joseph L.; Nagle, Trisha; Fitzgerald, Elise; Rawson, Eric S.; Dixon, Curt B.

2013-01-01

Purpose: We examined the impact that cycle ergometry exercise had on percent body fat (%BF) estimates when assessed using either leg-to-leg or segmental bioelectrical impedance analysis (LBIA; SBIA) and whether the intensity of the exercise bout impacts the %BF magnitude of change. Method: Seventy-four college-aged adults participated in this…

Enhanced analysis of real-time PCR data by using a variable efficiency model: FPK-PCR

PubMed Central

Lievens, Antoon; Van Aelst, S.; Van den Bulcke, M.; Goetghebeur, E.

2012-01-01

Current methodology in real-time Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis performs well provided PCR efficiency remains constant over reactions. Yet, small changes in efficiency can lead to large quantification errors. Particularly in biological samples, the possible presence of inhibitors forms a challenge. We present a new approach to single reaction efficiency calculation, called Full Process Kinetics-PCR (FPK-PCR). It combines a kinetically more realistic model with flexible adaptation to the full range of data. By reconstructing the entire chain of cycle efficiencies, rather than restricting the focus on a ‘window of application’, one extracts additional information and loses a level of arbitrariness. The maximal efficiency estimates returned by the model are comparable in accuracy and precision to both the golden standard of serial dilution and other single reaction efficiency methods. The cycle-to-cycle changes in efficiency, as described by the FPK-PCR procedure, stay considerably closer to the data than those from other S-shaped models. The assessment of individual cycle efficiencies returns more information than other single efficiency methods. It allows in-depth interpretation of real-time PCR data and reconstruction of the fluorescence data, providing quality control. Finally, by implementing a global efficiency model, reproducibility is improved as the selection of a window of application is avoided. PMID:22102586

Gas ultrasonic flow rate measurement through genetic-ant colony optimization based on the ultrasonic pulse received signal model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Huirang; Zheng, Dandan; Nie, Laixiao

2015-04-01

For gas ultrasonic flowmeters, the signals received by ultrasonic sensors are susceptible to noise interference. If signals are mingled with noise, a large error in flow measurement can be caused by triggering mistakenly using the traditional double-threshold method. To solve this problem, genetic-ant colony optimization (GACO) based on the ultrasonic pulse received signal model is proposed. Furthermore, in consideration of the real-time performance of the flow measurement system, the improvement of processing only the first three cycles of the received signals rather than the whole signal is proposed. Simulation results show that the GACO algorithm has the best estimation accuracy and ant-noise ability compared with the genetic algorithm, ant colony optimization, double-threshold and enveloped zero-crossing. Local convergence doesn’t appear with the GACO algorithm until -10 dB. For the GACO algorithm, the converging accuracy and converging speed and the amount of computation are further improved when using the first three cycles (called GACO-3cycles). Experimental results involving actual received signals show that the accuracy of single-gas ultrasonic flow rate measurement can reach 0.5% with GACO-3 cycles, which is better than with the double-threshold method.

Vegetation index methods for estimating evapotranspiration by remote sensing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Glenn, Edward P.; Nagler, Pamela L.; Huete, Alfredo R.

2010-01-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) is the largest term after precipitation in terrestrial water budgets. Accurate estimates of ET are needed for numerous agricultural and natural resource management tasks and to project changes in hydrological cycles due to potential climate change. We explore recent methods that combine vegetation indices (VI) from satellites with ground measurements of actual ET (ETa) and meteorological data to project ETa over a wide range of biome types and scales of measurement, from local to global estimates. The majority of these use time-series imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer on the Terra satellite to project ET over seasons and years. The review explores the theoretical basis for the methods, the types of ancillary data needed, and their accuracy and limitations. Coefficients of determination between modeled ETa and measured ETa are in the range of 0.45–0.95, and root mean square errors are in the range of 10–30% of mean ETa values across biomes, similar to methods that use thermal infrared bands to estimate ETa and within the range of accuracy of the ground measurements by which they are calibrated or validated. The advent of frequent-return satellites such as Terra and planed replacement platforms, and the increasing number of moisture and carbon flux tower sites over the globe, have made these methods feasible. Examples of operational algorithms for ET in agricultural and natural ecosystems are presented. The goal of the review is to enable potential end-users from different disciplines to adapt these methods to new applications that require spatially-distributed ET estimates.

A comprehensive method for preliminary design optimization of axial gas turbine stages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jenkins, R. M.

1982-01-01

A method is presented that performs a rapid, reasonably accurate preliminary pitchline optimization of axial gas turbine annular flowpath geometry, as well as an initial estimate of blade profile shapes, given only a minimum of thermodynamic cycle requirements. No geometric parameters need be specified. The following preliminary design data are determined: (1) the optimum flowpath geometry, within mechanical stress limits; (2) initial estimates of cascade blade shapes; (3) predictions of expected turbine performance. The method uses an inverse calculation technique whereby blade profiles are generated by designing channels to yield a specified velocity distribution on the two walls. Velocity distributions are then used to calculate the cascade loss parameters. Calculated blade shapes are used primarily to determine whether the assumed velocity loadings are physically realistic. Model verification is accomplished by comparison of predicted turbine geometry and performance with four existing single stage turbines.

EVALUATION METHOD ON LEVEL-OF-SERVICE OF SHARED USE SIDEWALKS BY PEDESTRIANS AND BICYCLES USING HINDRANCE EVENTS INDICES FOR ANALYSIS OF NECESSITY OF SEPARATION

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamanaka, Hideo

Problems of shared use of bicycles and pedestrians on sidewalks have been an important issue for cycling policy promotion in Japan. Several studies on evaluation methods of shared use have been carried out, but it remains no appropriate index which can be used operationally in planning process. The aim of this study is to develop a method of evaluation of level-of-service for the shared use sidewalks using hindrance events index which newly considers the gap width in meeting and passing of cycling and pedestrians. This index can be estimated only by traffic volume, velocity, width of sidewalks which can be obtained in usual traffic observation. In conclusion, the author shows the appropriate indices which can explains conflicts behavior and unsafe sense of street users, and show the present situation of necessity of separation of existing streets in Japan by analyzing the ratio of street miles by the LOS.

10 CFR 435.8 - Life-cycle costing.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 10 Energy 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Life-cycle costing. 435.8 Section 435.8 Energy DEPARTMENT...-cycle costing. Each Federal agency shall determine life-cycle cost-effectiveness by using the procedures..., including lower life-cycle costs, positive net savings, savings-to-investment ratio that is estimated to be...

10 CFR 435.8 - Life-cycle costing.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 10 Energy 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Life-cycle costing. 435.8 Section 435.8 Energy DEPARTMENT...-cycle costing. Each Federal agency shall determine life-cycle cost-effectiveness by using the procedures..., including lower life-cycle costs, positive net savings, savings-to-investment ratio that is estimated to be...

10 CFR 435.8 - Life-cycle costing.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 10 Energy 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Life-cycle costing. 435.8 Section 435.8 Energy DEPARTMENT...-cycle costing. Each Federal agency shall determine life-cycle cost-effectiveness by using the procedures..., including lower life-cycle costs, positive net savings, savings-to-investment ratio that is estimated to be...

Data Driven Estimation of Transpiration from Net Water Fluxes: the TEA Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, J. A.; Carvalhais, N.; Cuntz, M.; Delpierre, N.; Knauer, J.; Migliavacca, M.; Ogee, J.; Reichstein, M.; Jung, M.

2017-12-01

The eddy covariance method, while powerful, can only provide a net accounting of ecosystem fluxes. Particularly with water cycle components, efforts to partitioning total evapotranspiration (ET) into the biotic component (transpiration, T) and the abiotic component (here evaporation, E) have seen limited success, with no one method emerging as a standard.Here we demonstrate a novel method that uses ecosystem WUE to predict transpiration in two steps: (1) a filtration step that to isolate the signal of ET for periods where E is minimized and ET is likely dominated by the signal of T; and (2) a step which predicts the WUE using meteorological variables, as well as information derived from the carbon and energy fluxes. To assess the the underlying assumptions, we tested the proposed method on three ecological models, allowing validation where the underlying carbon:water relationships, as well as the transpiration estimates, are know.The partitioning method shows high correlation (R²>0.8) between Tmodel/ET and TTEA/ET across timescales from half-hourly to annually, as well as capturing spatial variability across sites. Apart from predictive performance, we explore the sensitivities of the method to the underlying assumptions, such as the effects of residual evaporation in the training dataset. Furthermore, we show initial transpiration estimates from the algorithm at global scale, via the FLUXNET dataset.

Inference on periodicity of circadian time series.

PubMed

Costa, Maria J; Finkenstädt, Bärbel; Roche, Véronique; Lévi, Francis; Gould, Peter D; Foreman, Julia; Halliday, Karen; Hall, Anthony; Rand, David A

2013-09-01

Estimation of the period length of time-course data from cyclical biological processes, such as those driven by the circadian pacemaker, is crucial for inferring the properties of the biological clock found in many living organisms. We propose a methodology for period estimation based on spectrum resampling (SR) techniques. Simulation studies show that SR is superior and more robust to non-sinusoidal and noisy cycles than a currently used routine based on Fourier approximations. In addition, a simple fit to the oscillations using linear least squares is available, together with a non-parametric test for detecting changes in period length which allows for period estimates with different variances, as frequently encountered in practice. The proposed methods are motivated by and applied to various data examples from chronobiology.

Estimation of respiratory rhythm during night sleep using a bio-radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tataraidze, Alexander; Anishchenko, Lesya; Alekhin, Maksim; Korostovtseva, Lyudmila; Sviryaev, Yurii

2014-05-01

An assessment of bio-radiolocation monitoring of respiratory rhythm during sleep is given. Full-night respiratory inductance plethysmography (RIP) and bio-radiolocation (BRL) records were collected simultaneously in a sleep laboratory. Polysomnography data from 5 subjects without sleep breathing disorders were used. A multi-frequency bioradar with step frequency modulation was applied. It has 8 operating frequencies ranging from 3.6 to 4.0 GHz. BRL data are recorded in two quadratures. Respiratory cycles were detected in time domain. Obtained data was used for the evaluation of correlation between BRL and RIP respiration rate estimates. Strong correlation between corresponding time series was revealed. BRL method is reliably implemented for estimation of respiratory rhythm and respiratory rate variability during full night sleep.

Effects of Structural Deformations of the Crank-Slider Mechanism on the Estimation of the Instantaneous Engine Friction Torque

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

CHALHOUB, N. G.; NEHME, H.; HENEIN, N. A.; BRYZIK, W.

1999-07-01

The focus on the current study is to assess the effects of structural deformations of the crankshaft/connecting-rod/piston mechanism on the computation of the instantaneous engine friction torque. This study is performed in a fully controlled environment in order to isolate the effects of structural deformations from those of measurement errors or noise interference. Therefore, a detailed model, accounting for the rigid and flexible motions of the crank-slider mechanism and including engine component friction formulations, is considered in this study. The model is used as a test bed to generate the engine friction torque,Tfa, and to predict the rigid and flexible motions of the system in response to the cylinder gas pressure. The torsional vibrations and the rigid body angular velocity of the crankshaft, as predicted by the detailed model of the crank-slider mechanism, are used along with the engine load torque and the cylinder gas pressure in the (P-ω) method to estimate the engine friction torque,Tfe. This method is well suited for the purpose of this study because its formulation is based on the rigid body model of the crank-slider mechanism. The digital simulation results demonstrate that the exclusion of the structural deformations of the crank-slider mechanism from the formulation of the (P-ω) method leads to an overestimation of the engine friction torque near the top-dead-center (TDC) position of the piston under firing conditions. Moreover, for the remainder of the engine cycle, the estimated friction torque exhibits large oscillations and takes on positive numerical values as if it is inducing energy into the system. Thus, the adverse effects of structural deformations of the crank-slider mechanism on the estimation of the engine friction torque greatly differ in their nature from one phase of the engine cycle to another.

Potential impacts of Brayton and Stirling cycle engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heft, R. C.

1980-11-01

Two engine technologies (Brayton cycle and Stirling cycle) are examined for their potential economic impact and fuel utilization. An economic analysis of the expected response of buyers to the attributes of the alternative engines was performed. Hedonic coefficients for vehicle fuel efficiency, performance and size were estimated for domestic cars based upon historical data. The marketplace value of the fuel efficiency enhancement provided by Brayton or Stirling engines was estimated. Under the assumptions of 10 years for plant conversions and 1990 and 1995 as the introduction data for turbine and Stirling engines respectively, the comparative fuel savings and present value of the future savings in fuel costs were estimated.

Potential impacts of Brayton and Stirling cycle engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heft, R. C.

1980-01-01

Two engine technologies (Brayton cycle and Stirling cycle) are examined for their potential economic impact and fuel utilization. An economic analysis of the expected response of buyers to the attributes of the alternative engines was performed. Hedonic coefficients for vehicle fuel efficiency, performance and size were estimated for domestic cars based upon historical data. The marketplace value of the fuel efficiency enhancement provided by Brayton or Stirling engines was estimated. Under the assumptions of 10 years for plant conversions and 1990 and 1995 as the introduction data for turbine and Stirling engines respectively, the comparative fuel savings and present value of the future savings in fuel costs were estimated.

Ground-based remote sensing of HDO/H2O ratio profiles: introduction and validation of an innovative retrieval approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, M.; Hase, F.; Blumenstock, T.

2006-10-01

We propose an innovative approach for analysing ground-based FTIR spectra which allows us to detect variabilities of lower and middle/upper tropospheric HDO/H2O ratios. We show that the proposed method is superior to common approaches. We estimate that lower tropospheric HDO/H2O ratios can be detected with a noise to signal ratio of 15% and middle/upper tropospheric ratios with a noise to signal ratio of 50%. The method requires the inversion to be performed on a logarithmic scale and to introduce an inter-species constraint. While common methods calculate the isotope ratio posterior to an independent, optimal estimation of the HDO and H2O profile, the proposed approach is an optimal estimator for the ratio itself. We apply the innovative approach to spectra measured continuously during 15 months and present, for the first time, an annual cycle of tropospheric HDO/H2O ratio profiles as detected by ground-based measurements. Outliers in the detected middle/upper tropospheric ratios are interpreted by backward trajectories.

Ground-based remote sensing of HDO/H2O ratio profiles: introduction and validation of an innovative retrieval approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, M.; Hase, F.; Blumenstock, T.

2006-06-01

We propose an innovative approach for analysing ground-based FTIR spectra which allows us to detect variabilities of lower and middle/upper tropospheric HDO/H2O ratios. We show that the proposed method is superior to common approaches. We estimate that lower tropospheric HDO/H2O ratios can be detected with a noise to signal ratio of 15% and middle/upper tropospheric ratios with a noise to signal ratio of 50%. The method requires the inversion to be performed on a logarithmic scale and to introduce an inter-species constraint. While common methods calculate the isotope ratio posterior to an independent, optimal estimation of the HDO and H2O profile, the proposed approach is an optimal estimator for the ratio itself. We apply the innovative approach to spectra measured continuously during 15 months and present, for the first time, an annual cycle of tropospheric HDO/H2O ratio profiles as detected by ground-based measurements. Outliers in the detected middle/upper tropospheric ratios are interpreted by backward trajectories.

Altered Electroencephalographic Activity Associated with Changes in the Sleep-Wakefulness Cycle of C57BL/6J Mice in Response to a Photoperiod Shortening

PubMed Central

Rozov, Stanislav V.; Zant, Janneke C.; Gurevicius, Kestutis; Porkka-Heiskanen, Tarja; Panula, Pertti

2016-01-01

Aim: Under natural conditions diurnal rhythms of biological processes of the organism are synchronized with each other and to the environmental changes by means of the circadian system. Disturbances of the latter affect hormonal levels, sleep-wakefulness cycle and cognitive performance. To study mechanisms of such perturbations animal models subjected to artificial photoperiods are often used. The goal of current study was to understand the effects of circadian rhythm disruption, caused by a short light-dark cycle regime, on activity of the cerebral cortex in rodents. Methods: We used electroencephalogram to assess the distribution of vigilance states, perform spectral analysis, and estimate the homeostatic sleep drive. In addition, we analyzed spontaneous locomotion of C57BL/6J mice under symmetric, 22-, 21-, and 20-h-long light–dark cycles using video recording and tracking methods. Results and Conclusions: We found that shortening of photoperiod caused a significant increase of slow wave activity during non-rapid eye movement sleep suggesting an elevation of sleep pressure under such conditions. While the rhythm of spontaneous locomotion was completely entrained by all light–dark cycles tested, periodic changes in the power of the θ- and γ-frequency ranges during wakefulness gradually disappeared under 22- and 21-h-long light–dark cycles. This was associated with a significant increase in the θ–γ phase-amplitude coupling during wakefulness. Our results thus provide deeper understanding of the mechanisms underlying the impairment of learning and memory retention, which is associated with disturbed circadian regulation. PMID:27630549

A Bayesian Framework for Coupled Estimation of Key Unknown Parameters of Land Water and Energy Balance Equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farhadi, L.; Abdolghafoorian, A.

2015-12-01

The land surface is a key component of climate system. It controls the partitioning of available energy at the surface between sensible and latent heat, and partitioning of available water between evaporation and runoff. Water and energy cycle are intrinsically coupled through evaporation, which represents a heat exchange as latent heat flux. Accurate estimation of fluxes of heat and moisture are of significant importance in many fields such as hydrology, climatology and meteorology. In this study we develop and apply a Bayesian framework for estimating the key unknown parameters of terrestrial water and energy balance equations (i.e. moisture and heat diffusion) and their uncertainty in land surface models. These equations are coupled through flux of evaporation. The estimation system is based on the adjoint method for solving a least-squares optimization problem. The cost function consists of aggregated errors on state (i.e. moisture and temperature) with respect to observation and parameters estimation with respect to prior values over the entire assimilation period. This cost function is minimized with respect to parameters to identify models of sensible heat, latent heat/evaporation and drainage and runoff. Inverse of Hessian of the cost function is an approximation of the posterior uncertainty of parameter estimates. Uncertainty of estimated fluxes is estimated by propagating the uncertainty for linear and nonlinear function of key parameters through the method of First Order Second Moment (FOSM). Uncertainty analysis is used in this method to guide the formulation of a well-posed estimation problem. Accuracy of the method is assessed at point scale using surface energy and water fluxes generated by the Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model at the selected AmeriFlux stations. This method can be applied to diverse climates and land surface conditions with different spatial scales, using remotely sensed measurements of surface moisture and temperature states

Predicting Critical Power in Elite Cyclists: Questioning the Validity of the 3-Minute All-Out Test.

PubMed

Bartram, Jason C; Thewlis, Dominic; Martin, David T; Norton, Kevin I

2017-07-01

New applications of the critical-power concept, such as the modeling of intermittent-work capabilities, are exciting prospects for elite cycling. However, accurate calculation of the required parameters is traditionally time invasive and somewhat impractical. An alternative single-test protocol (3-min all-out) has recently been proposed, but validation in an elite population is lacking. The traditional approach for parameter establishment, but with fewer tests, could also prove an acceptable compromise. Six senior Australian endurance track-cycling representatives completed 6 efforts to exhaustion on 2 separate days over a 3-wk period. These included 1-, 4-, 6-, 8-, and 10-min self-paced efforts, plus the 3-min all-out protocol. Traditional work-vs-time calculations of CP and anaerobic energy contribution (W') using the 5 self-paced efforts were compared with calculations from the 3-min all-out protocol. The impact of using just 2 or 3 self-paced efforts for traditional CP and W' estimation was also explored using thresholds of agreement (8 W, 2.0 kJ, respectively). CP estimated from the 3-min all-out approach was significantly higher than from the traditional approach (402 ± 33, 351 ± 27 W, P < .001), while W' was lower (15.5 ± 3.0, 24.3 ± 4.0 kJ, P = .02). Five different combinations of 2 or 3 self-paced efforts led to CP estimates within the threshold of agreement, with only 1 combination deemed accurate for W'. In elite cyclists the 3-min all-out approach is not suitable to estimate CP when compared with the traditional method. However, reducing the number of tests used in the traditional method lessens testing burden while maintaining appropriate parameter accuracy.

Systematic Review of Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Geothermal Electricity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eberle, Annika; Heath, Garvin A.; Carpenter Petri, Alberta C.

The primary goal of this work was to assess the magnitude and variability of published life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emission estimates for three types of geothermal electricity generation technologies: enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) binary, hydrothermal (HT) flash, and HT binary. These technologies were chosen to align the results of this report with technologies modeled in National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Regional Energy Deployment Systems (ReEDs) model. Although we did gather and screen life cycle assessment (LCA) literature on hybrid systems, dry steam, and two geothermal heating technologies, we did not analyze published GHG emission estimates for these technologies. Inmore » our systematic literature review of the LCA literature, we screened studies in two stages based on a variety of criteria adapted from NREL's Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) Harmonization study (Heath and Mann 2012). Of the more than 180 geothermal studies identified, only 29 successfully passed both screening stages and only 26 of these included estimates of life cycle GHG emissions. We found that the median estimate of life cycle GHG emissions (in grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour generated [g CO2eq/kWh]) reported by these studies are 32.0, 47.0, and 11.3 for EGS binary, HT flash, and HT binary, respectively (Figure ES-1). We also found that the total life cycle GHG emissions are dominated by different stages of the life cycle for different technologies. For example, the GHG emissions from HT flash plants are dominated by the operations phase owing to the flash cycle being open loop whereby carbon dioxide entrained in the geothermal fluids is released to the atmosphere. This is in contrast to binary plants (using either EGS or HT resources), whose GHG emissions predominantly originate in the construction phase, owing to its closed-loop process design. Finally, by comparing this review's literature-derived range of HT flash GHG emissions to data from currently operating geothermal plants, we found that emissions from operational plants exhibit more variability and the median of emissions from operational plants is twice the median of operational emissions reported by LCAs. Further investigation is warranted to better understand the cause of differences between published LCAs and estimates from operational plants and to develop LCA analytical approaches that can yield estimates closer to actual emissions.« less

Thermodynamic Analysis and Optimization of a High Temperature Triple Absorption Heat Transformer

PubMed Central

Khamooshi, Mehrdad; Yari, Mortaza; Egelioglu, Fuat; Salati, Hana

2014-01-01

First law of thermodynamics has been used to analyze and optimize inclusively the performance of a triple absorption heat transformer operating with LiBr/H2O as the working pair. A thermodynamic model was developed in EES (engineering equation solver) to estimate the performance of the system in terms of the most essential parameters. The assumed parameters are the temperature of the main components, weak and strong solutions, economizers' efficiencies, and bypass ratios. The whole cycle is optimized by EES software from the viewpoint of maximizing the COP via applying the direct search method. The optimization results showed that the COP of 0.2491 is reachable by the proposed cycle. PMID:25136702

Probabilistic Fatigue Damage Program (FATIG)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Michalopoulos, Constantine

2012-01-01

FATIG computes fatigue damage/fatigue life using the stress rms (root mean square) value, the total number of cycles, and S-N curve parameters. The damage is computed by the following methods: (a) traditional method using Miner s rule with stress cycles determined from a Rayleigh distribution up to 3*sigma; and (b) classical fatigue damage formula involving the Gamma function, which is derived from the integral version of Miner's rule. The integration is carried out over all stress amplitudes. This software solves the problem of probabilistic fatigue damage using the integral form of the Palmgren-Miner rule. The software computes fatigue life using an approach involving all stress amplitudes, up to N*sigma, as specified by the user. It can be used in the design of structural components subjected to random dynamic loading, or by any stress analyst with minimal training for fatigue life estimates of structural components.

A simplified method for elastic-plastic-creep structural analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, A.

1984-01-01

A simplified inelastic analysis computer program (ANSYPM) was developed for predicting the stress-strain history at the critical location of a thermomechanically cycled structure from an elastic solution. The program uses an iterative and incremental procedure to estimate the plastic strains from the material stress-strain properties and a plasticity hardening model. Creep effects are calculated on the basis of stress relaxation at constant strain, creep at constant stress or a combination of stress relaxation and creep accumulation. The simplified method was exercised on a number of problems involving uniaxial and multiaxial loading, isothermal and nonisothermal conditions, dwell times at various points in the cycles, different materials and kinematic hardening. Good agreement was found between these analytical results and nonlinear finite element solutions for these problems. The simplified analysis program used less than 1 percent of the CPU time required for a nonlinear finite element analysis.

A simplified method for elastic-plastic-creep structural analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, A.

1985-01-01

A simplified inelastic analysis computer program (ANSYPM) was developed for predicting the stress-strain history at the critical location of a thermomechanically cycled structure from an elastic solution. The program uses an iterative and incremental procedure to estimate the plastic strains from the material stress-strain properties and a plasticity hardening model. Creep effects are calculated on the basis of stress relaxation at constant strain, creep at constant stress or a combination of stress relaxation and creep accumulation. The simplified method was exercised on a number of problems involving uniaxial and multiaxial loading, isothermal and nonisothermal conditions, dwell times at various points in the cycles, different materials and kinematic hardening. Good agreement was found between these analytical results and nonlinear finite element solutions for these problems. The simplified analysis program used less than 1 percent of the CPU time required for a nonlinear finite element analysis.

'Trophic' and 'source' amino acids in trophic estimation: a likely metabolic explanation.

PubMed

O'Connell, T C

2017-06-01

Amino acid nitrogen isotopic analysis is a relatively new method for estimating trophic position. It uses the isotopic difference between an individual's 'trophic' and 'source' amino acids to determine its trophic position. So far, there is no accepted explanation for the mechanism by which the isotopic signals in 'trophic' and 'source' amino acids arise. Yet without a metabolic understanding, the utility of nitrogen isotopic analyses as a method for probing trophic relations, at either bulk tissue or amino acid level, is limited. I draw on isotopic tracer studies of protein metabolism, together with a consideration of amino acid metabolic pathways, to suggest that the 'trophic'/'source' groupings have a fundamental metabolic origin, to do with the cycling of amino-nitrogen between amino acids. 'Trophic' amino acids are those whose amino-nitrogens are interchangeable, part of a metabolic amino-nitrogen pool, and 'source' amino acids are those whose amino-nitrogens are not interchangeable with the metabolic pool. Nitrogen isotopic values of 'trophic' amino acids will reflect an averaged isotopic signal of all such dietary amino acids, offset by the integrated effect of isotopic fractionation from nitrogen cycling, and modulated by metabolic and physiological effects. Isotopic values of 'source' amino acids will be more closely linked to those of equivalent dietary amino acids, but also modulated by metabolism and physiology. The complexity of nitrogen cycling suggests that a single identifiable value for 'trophic discrimination factors' is unlikely to exist. Greater consideration of physiology and metabolism should help in better understanding observed patterns in nitrogen isotopic values.

Optimization and experimental validation of a thermal cycle that maximizes entropy coefficient fisher identifiability for lithium iron phosphate cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, Sergio; Rothenberger, Michael; Hake, Alison; Fathy, Hosam

2016-03-01

This article presents a framework for optimizing the thermal cycle to estimate a battery cell's entropy coefficient at 20% state of charge (SOC). Our goal is to maximize Fisher identifiability: a measure of the accuracy with which a parameter can be estimated. Existing protocols in the literature for estimating entropy coefficients demand excessive laboratory time. Identifiability optimization makes it possible to achieve comparable accuracy levels in a fraction of the time. This article demonstrates this result for a set of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cells. We conduct a 24-h experiment to obtain benchmark measurements of their entropy coefficients. We optimize a thermal cycle to maximize parameter identifiability for these cells. This optimization proceeds with respect to the coefficients of a Fourier discretization of this thermal cycle. Finally, we compare the estimated parameters using (i) the benchmark test, (ii) the optimized protocol, and (iii) a 15-h test from the literature (by Forgez et al.). The results are encouraging for two reasons. First, they confirm the simulation-based prediction that the optimized experiment can produce accurate parameter estimates in 2 h, compared to 15-24. Second, the optimized experiment also estimates a thermal time constant representing the effects of thermal capacitance and convection heat transfer.

Tidal Marshes as Pulsing Systems: New Estimates of Marsh-Carbon Export and Fate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Logozzo, L. A.; Neale, P.; Tzortziou, M.; Nelson, N.; Megonigal, P.

2016-02-01

We investigated wetland-estuarine exchanges of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), and chlorophyll a (chl a) in the Chesapeake Bay Kirkpatrick wetlands, an ecosystem that is representative of brackish marshes with organic-rich soils in North America. 1 L water samples were collected every hour over multiple semidiurnal tidal cycles (24 h deployments) and the flow was continuously measured every minute over the course of the study. DIC samples were collected and filtered on site. Fluxes were estimated using the measured flow and concentrations of biogeochemical variables (DOC, DIC, and chl a as a measure of algal biomass). aCDOM(300) was used as a proxy for CDOM amount to observe variations over two semidiurnal tidal cycles. Relative to high tide water, low tide water was consistently enriched in DOC, DIC, and CDOM, whereas it was consistently depleted in chl a. Initial estimates of fluxes over the tidal cycle showed net export of DIC and DOC from the marsh, and net import of chl a into the marsh. These results are consistent with DOC flux estimates from previous studies, but our method utilizes high temporal resolution flow measurements, improving flux estimate accuracy. Transect sampling from the marsh into the sub-estuary during ebbing tide indicated a strong negative gradient in a­CDOM­(300) and non-conservative mixing with salinity. The observed gradients in CDOM absorption spectral shape (slope and slope ratios) and the relative changes in the major fluorescence components identified in 3D fluorescence excitation-emission-matrices, indicated strong photochemical degradation in the estuary and a shift from higher to lower molecular-weight organic compounds. The weaker gradients observed for DOC and DIC compared to aCDOM(300) indicate that while microbial degradation does occur, photobleaching is the dominant degradation mechanism for CDOM in the estuary.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoke, Anderson; Shirazi, Mariko; Chakraborty, Sudipta

As deployment of power electronic coupled generation such as photovoltaic (PV) systems increases, grid operators have shown increasing interest in calling on inverter-coupled generation to help mitigate frequency contingency events by rapidly surging active power into the grid. When responding to contingency events, the faster the active power is provided, the more effective it may be for arresting the frequency event. This paper proposes a predictive PV inverter control method for very fast and accurate control of active power. This rapid active power control method will increase the effectiveness of various higher-level controls designed to mitigate grid frequency contingency events,more » including fast power-frequency droop, inertia emulation, and fast frequency response, without the need for energy storage. The rapid active power control method, coupled with a maximum power point estimation method, is implemented in a prototype PV inverter connected to a PV array. The prototype inverter's response to various frequency events is experimentally confirmed to be fast (beginning within 2 line cycles and completing within 4.5 line cycles of a severe test event) and accurate (below 2% steady-state error).« less

Analysis of a topping-cycle, aircraft, gas-turbine-engine system which uses cryogenic fuel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turney, G. E.; Fishbach, L. H.

1984-01-01

A topping-cycle aircraft engine system which uses a cryogenic fuel was investigated. This system consists of a main turboshaft engine that is mechanically coupled (by cross-shafting) to a topping loop, which augments the shaft power output of the system. The thermodynamic performance of the topping-cycle engine was analyzed and compared with that of a reference (conventional) turboshaft engine. For the cycle operating conditions selected, the performance of the topping-cycle engine in terms of brake specific fuel consumption (bsfc) was determined to be about 12 percent better than that of the reference turboshaft engine. Engine weights were estimated for both the topping-cycle engine and the reference turboshaft engine. These estimates were based on a common shaft power output for each engine. Results indicate that the weight of the topping-cycle engine is comparable with that of the reference turboshaft engine.

Study of LH2-fueled topping cycle engine for aircraft propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turney, G. E.; Fishbach, L. H.

1983-01-01

An analytical investigation was made of a topping cycle aircraft engine system which uses a cryogenic fuel. This system consists of a main turboshaft engine which is mechanically coupled (by cross-shafting) to a topping loop which augments the shaft power output of the system. The thermodynamic performance of the topping cycle engine was analyzed and compared with that of a reference (conventional-type) turboshaft engine. For the cycle operating conditions selected, the performance of the topping cycle engine in terms of brake specific fuel consumption (bsfc) was determined to be about 12 percent better than that of the reference turboshaft engine. Engine weights were estimated for both the topping cycle engine and the reference turboshaft engine. These estimates were based on a common shaft power output for each engine. Results indicate that the weight of the topping cycle engine is comparable to that of the reference turboshaft engine.

Fuel consumption for various driving styles in conventional and hybrid electric vehicles: Integrating driving cycle predictions with fuel consumption optimization

DOE PAGES

Rios-Torres, Jackeline; Liu, Jun; Khattak, Asad

2018-06-14

Here, improving fuel economy and lowering emissions are key societal goals. Standard driving cycles, pre-designed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), have long been used to estimate vehicle fuel economy in laboratory-controlled conditions. They have also been used to test and tune different energy management strategies for hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). This paper aims to estimate fuel consumption for a conventional vehicle and a HEV using personalized driving cycles extracted from real-world data to study the effects of different driving styles and vehicle types on fuel consumption when compared to the estimates based on standard driving cycles. To domore » this, we extracted driving cycles for conventional vehicles and HEVs from a large-scale U.S. survey that contains real-world GPS-based driving records. Next, the driving cycles were assigned to one of three categories: volatile, normal, or calm. Then, the driving cycles were used along with a driver-vehicle simulation that captures driver decisions (vehicle speed during a trip), powertrain, and vehicle dynamics to estimate fuel consumption for conventional vehicles and HEVs with power-split powertrain. To further optimize fuel consumption for HEVs, the Equivalent Consumption Minimization Strategy (ECMS) is applied. The results show that depending on the driving style and the driving scenario, conventional vehicle fuel consumption can vary widely compared with standard EPA driving cycles. Specifically, conventional vehicle fuel consumption was 13% lower in calm urban driving, but almost 34% higher for volatile highway driving compared with standard EPA driving cycles. Interestingly, when a driving cycle is predicted based on the application of case-based reasoning and used to tune the power distribution in a hybrid electric vehicle, its fuel consumption can be reduced by up to 12% in urban driving. Implications and limitations of the findings are discussed.« less

Fuel consumption for various driving styles in conventional and hybrid electric vehicles: Integrating driving cycle predictions with fuel consumption optimization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rios-Torres, Jackeline; Liu, Jun; Khattak, Asad

Here, improving fuel economy and lowering emissions are key societal goals. Standard driving cycles, pre-designed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), have long been used to estimate vehicle fuel economy in laboratory-controlled conditions. They have also been used to test and tune different energy management strategies for hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). This paper aims to estimate fuel consumption for a conventional vehicle and a HEV using personalized driving cycles extracted from real-world data to study the effects of different driving styles and vehicle types on fuel consumption when compared to the estimates based on standard driving cycles. To domore » this, we extracted driving cycles for conventional vehicles and HEVs from a large-scale U.S. survey that contains real-world GPS-based driving records. Next, the driving cycles were assigned to one of three categories: volatile, normal, or calm. Then, the driving cycles were used along with a driver-vehicle simulation that captures driver decisions (vehicle speed during a trip), powertrain, and vehicle dynamics to estimate fuel consumption for conventional vehicles and HEVs with power-split powertrain. To further optimize fuel consumption for HEVs, the Equivalent Consumption Minimization Strategy (ECMS) is applied. The results show that depending on the driving style and the driving scenario, conventional vehicle fuel consumption can vary widely compared with standard EPA driving cycles. Specifically, conventional vehicle fuel consumption was 13% lower in calm urban driving, but almost 34% higher for volatile highway driving compared with standard EPA driving cycles. Interestingly, when a driving cycle is predicted based on the application of case-based reasoning and used to tune the power distribution in a hybrid electric vehicle, its fuel consumption can be reduced by up to 12% in urban driving. Implications and limitations of the findings are discussed.« less

Control Technology for Depainting Operations: Estimation of Life-Cycle Costs of Controlling Methylene Chloride in Aircraft-Depainting Operations Versus Alternative Processes

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-11-24

2343 Calle Del Mundo Santa Clara, CA 95054-1008 Tel.: (408)727-8282 POC: J. A. Gotterba Durr Industries Environmental Systems Division 40600...1) LESS THAN 1 IV. FIRE AND EXPLOSION DATA FLASH POINT (TEST METHOD) ABOVE 200*P AUTO IGNITION ABOVE TEMPERATURE iJfJO’P...IST METHOD, ?oo.._r T,CCT CxriNOUISHINO Mt 01A WATER AUTO IGNITION ABOVB I rLAM**BLt »•’•’"’• TEMPERATURE ^QQly | IN AIR

Methods of calculating engineering parameters for gas separations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lawson, D. D.

1980-01-01

A group additivity method has been generated which makes it possible to estimate, from the structural formulas alone, the energy of vaporization and the molar volume at 25 C of many nonpolar organic liquids. From these two parameters and appropriate thermodynamic relationships it is then possible to predict the vapor pressure of the liquid phase and the solubility of various gases in nonpolar organic liquids. The data are then used to evaluate organic and some inorganic liquids for use in gas separation stages or as heat exchange fluids in prospective thermochemical cycles for hydrogen production.

Quantification of tumor mobility during the breathing cycle using 3D dynamic MRI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoebinger, Max; Plathow, Christian; Wolf, Ivo; Kauczor, Hans-Ulrich; Meinzer, Hans-Peter

2006-03-01

Respiration causes movement and shape changes in thoracic tumors, which has a direct influence on the radio-therapy planning process. Current methods for the estimation of tumor mobility are either two-dimensional (fluoroscopy, 2D dynamic MRI) or based on radiation (3D (+t) CT, implanted gold markers). With current advances in dynamic MRI acquisition, 3D+t image sequences of the thorax can be acquired covering the thorax over the whole breathing cycle. In this work, methods are presented for the interactive segmentation of tumors in dynamic images, the calculation of tumor trajectories, dynamic tumor volumetry and dynamic tumor rotation/deformation based on 3D dynamic MRI. For volumetry calculation, a set of 21 related partial volume correcting volumetry algorithms has been evaluated based on tumor surrogates. Conventional volumetry based on voxel counting yielded a root mean square error of 29% compared to a root mean square error of 11% achieved by the algorithm performing best among the different volumetry methods. The new workflow has been applied to a set of 26 patients. Preliminary results indicate, that 3D dynamic MRI reveals important aspects of tumor behavior during the breathing cycle. This might imply the possibility to further improve high-precision radiotherapy techniques.

Full cost accounting for the life cycle of coal.

PubMed

Epstein, Paul R; Buonocore, Jonathan J; Eckerle, Kevin; Hendryx, Michael; Stout Iii, Benjamin M; Heinberg, Richard; Clapp, Richard W; May, Beverly; Reinhart, Nancy L; Ahern, Melissa M; Doshi, Samir K; Glustrom, Leslie

2011-02-01

Each stage in the life cycle of coal-extraction, transport, processing, and combustion-generates a waste stream and carries multiple hazards for health and the environment. These costs are external to the coal industry and are thus often considered "externalities." We estimate that the life cycle effects of coal and the waste stream generated are costing the U.S. public a third to over one-half of a trillion dollars annually. Many of these so-called externalities are, moreover, cumulative. Accounting for the damages conservatively doubles to triples the price of electricity from coal per kWh generated, making wind, solar, and other forms of nonfossil fuel power generation, along with investments in efficiency and electricity conservation methods, economically competitive. We focus on Appalachia, though coal is mined in other regions of the United States and is burned throughout the world. © 2011 New York Academy of Sciences.

The use of x-ray pulsar-based navigation method for interplanetary flight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Bo; Guo, Xingcan; Yang, Yong

2009-07-01

As interplanetary missions are increasingly complex, the existing unique mature interplanetary navigation method mainly based on radiometric tracking techniques of Deep Space Network can not meet the rising demands of autonomous real-time navigation. This paper studied the applications for interplanetary flights of a new navigation technology under rapid development-the X-ray pulsar-based navigation for spacecraft (XPNAV), and valued its performance with a computer simulation. The XPNAV is an excellent autonomous real-time navigation method, and can provide comprehensive navigation information, including position, velocity, attitude, attitude rate and time. In the paper the fundamental principles and time transformation of the XPNAV were analyzed, and then the Delta-correction XPNAV blending the vehicles' trajectory dynamics with the pulse time-of-arrival differences at nominal and estimated spacecraft locations within an Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) was discussed with a background mission of Mars Pathfinder during the heliocentric transferring orbit. The XPNAV has an intractable problem of integer pulse phase cycle ambiguities similar to the GPS carrier phase navigation. This article innovatively proposed the non-ambiguity assumption approach based on an analysis of the search space array method to resolve pulse phase cycle ambiguities between the nominal position and estimated position of the spacecraft. The simulation results show that the search space array method are computationally intensive and require long processing time when the position errors are large, and the non-ambiguity assumption method can solve ambiguity problem quickly and reliably. It is deemed that autonomous real-time integrated navigation system of the XPNAV blending with DSN, celestial navigation, inertial navigation and so on will be the development direction of interplanetary flight navigation system in the future.

10 CFR 436.10 - Purpose.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Cycle Cost Analyses § 436.10 Purpose. This subpart establishes a methodology and procedures for estimating and comparing the life cycle costs of Federal buildings, for determining the life cycle cost effectiveness of energy conservation measures and water conservation measures, and for rank ordering life cycle...

Developing Consistent Earth System Data Records for the Global Terrestrial Water Cycle: Focus on Shortwave and Longwave Radiative Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinker, R. T.; Ma, Y.; Nussbaumer, E. A.

2012-04-01

The overall goal of the MEaSUREs activity titled: "Developing Consistent Earth System Data Records for the Global Terrestrial Water Cycle" is to develop consistent, long-term Earth System Data Records (ESDRs) for the major components of the terrestrial water cycle at a climatic time scale. The shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative fluxes at the Earth's surface determine the exchange of energy between the land and the atmosphere are the focus of this presentation. During the last two decades, significant progress has been made in assessing the Earth Radiation Balance from satellite observations. Yet, satellite based estimates differ from each other and long term satellite observations at global scale are not readily available. There is a need to utilize existing records of satellite observations and to improve currently available estimates. This paper reports on improvements introduced to an existing methodology to estimate shortwave (SW) radiative fluxes within the atmospheric system, on the development of a new inference scheme for deriving LW fluxes, the implementation of the approach with the ISCCP DX observations and improved atmospheric inputs for the period of 1983-2007, evaluation against ground observations, and comparison with independent satellite methods and numerical models. The resulting ESDRs from the entire MEaSUREs Project are intended to provide a consistent basis for estimating the mean state and variability of the land surface water cycle at a spatial scale relevant to major global river basins. MEaSUREs Project "Developing Consistent Earth System Data Records for the Global Terrestrial Water Cycle" Team Members: E. F. Wood (PI)1, T. J Bohn2, J. L Bytheway3, X. Feng4, H. Gao2, P. R.Houser4 (CO-I), C. D Kummerow3 (CO-I), D. P Lettenmaier2 (CO-I), C. Li5, Y. Ma5, R. F MacCracken4, M. Pan1, R. T Pinker5 (CO-I), A. K. Sahoo1, J. Sheffield1 1. Dept of CEE, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA. 2. Dept of CEE, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA. 3. Dept of Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, CO, USA. 4. Dept of Geography and GeoInformation Scie., George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA. 5. Dept of Meteorology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA.

Major weapon system environmental life-cycle cost estimating for Conservation, Cleanup, Compliance and Pollution Prevention (C3P2)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hammond, Wesley; Thurston, Marland; Hood, Christopher

1995-01-01

The Titan 4 Space Launch Vehicle Program is one of many major weapon system programs that have modified acquisition plans and operational procedures to meet new, stringent environmental rules and regulations. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of Defense (DOD) mandate to reduce the use of ozone depleting chemicals (ODC's) is just one of the regulatory changes that has affected the program. In the last few years, public environmental awareness, coupled with stricter environmental regulations, has created the need for DOD to produce environmental life-cycle cost estimates (ELCCE) for every major weapon system acquisition program. The environmental impact of the weapon system must be assessed and budgeted, considering all costs, from cradle to grave. The Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) has proposed that organizations consider Conservation, Cleanup, Compliance and Pollution Prevention (C(sup 3)P(sup 2)) issues associated with each acquisition program to assess life-cycle impacts and costs. The Air Force selected the Titan 4 system as the pilot program for estimating life-cycle environmental costs. The estimating task required participants to develop an ELCCE methodology, collect data to test the methodology and produce a credible cost estimate within the DOD C(sup 3)P(sup 2) definition. The estimating methodology included using the Program Office weapon system description and work breakdown structure together with operational site and manufacturing plant visits to identify environmental cost drivers. The results of the Titan IV ELCCE process are discussed and expanded to demonstrate how they can be applied to satisfy any life-cycle environmental cost estimating requirement.

The Recalibrated Sunspot Number: Impact on Solar Cycle Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clette, F.; Lefevre, L.

2017-12-01

Recently and for the first time since their creation, the sunspot number and group number series were entirely revisited and a first fully recalibrated version was officially released in July 2015 by the World Data Center SILSO (Brussels). Those reference long-term series are widely used as input data or as a calibration reference by various solar cycle prediction methods. Therefore, past predictions may now need to be redone using the new sunspot series, and methods already used for predicting cycle 24 will require adaptations before attempting predictions of the next cycles.In order to clarify the nature of the applied changes, we describe the different corrections applied to the sunspot and group number series, which affect extended time periods and can reach up to 40%. While some changes simply involve constant scale factors, other corrections vary with time or follow the solar cycle modulation. Depending on the prediction method and on the selected time interval, this can lead to different responses and biases. Moreover, together with the new series, standard error estimates are also progressively added to the new sunspot numbers, which may help deriving more accurate uncertainties for predicted activity indices. We conclude on the new round of recalibration that is now undertaken in the framework of a broad multi-team collaboration articulated around upcoming ISSI workshops. We outline the future corrections that can still be expected in the future, as part of a permanent upgrading process and quality control. From now on, future sunspot-based predictive models should thus be made more adaptable, and regular updates of predictions should become common practice in order to track periodic upgrades of the sunspot number series, just like it is done when using other modern solar observational series.

Free-breathing cine DENSE MRI using phase cycling with matchmaking and stimulated-echo image-based navigators.

PubMed

Cai, Xiaoying; Epstein, Frederick H

2018-04-01

This study aimed to develop a self-navigated method for free-breathing spiral cine displacement encoding with stimulated echoes (DENSE), a myocardial strain imaging technique that uses phase-cycling for artifact suppression. The method needed to address 2 consequences of motion for DENSE: striping artifacts from incomplete suppression of the T 1 -relaxation echo and blurring. The method identifies phase-cycled spiral interleaves at matched respiratory phases by minimizing the residual signal due to T 1 relaxation after phase-cycling subtraction. Next, the method reconstructs image-based navigators from matched phase-cycled interleaves that are comprised of the stimulated echo (ste-iNAVs). Ste-iNAVs are used for motion estimation and compensation of k-space data. The method was demonstrated in phantoms and compared to diaphragm-based navigator (dNAV) and conventional iNAV (c-iNAV) methods for the reconstruction of free-breathing volunteer data sets (N = 10). Phantom experiments demonstrated that the proposed method removes striping artifacts and blurring due to motion. Volunteer results showed that respiratory motion measured by ste-iNAVs was better correlated than c-iNAVs to dNAV data (R 2  = 0.82 ± 0.03 vs. 0.70 ± 0.05, P < 0.05). Match-making reconstructions of free-breathing data sets achieved lower residual T 1 -relaxation echo energy (1.04 ± 0.01 vs. 1.18 ± 0.04 for dNAV and 1.18 ± 0.03 for c-iNAV, P < 0.05), higher apparent SNR (11.93 ± 1.05 vs. 10.68 ± 1.06 for dNAV and 10.66 ± 0.99 for c-iNAV, P < 0.05), and better phase quality (0.147 ± 0.012 vs. 0.166 ± 0.017 for dNAV, P = 0.06, and 0.168 ± 0.015 for c-iNAV, P < 0.05) than dNAV and c-iNAV methods. For free-breathing cine DENSE, the proposed method addresses both types of breathing-induced artifacts and provides better quality images than conventional dNAV and iNAV methods. © 2018 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

Comparison of human gastrocnemius forces predicted by Hill-type muscle models and estimated from ultrasound images

PubMed Central

Biewener, Andrew A.; Wakeling, James M.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Hill-type models are ubiquitous in the field of biomechanics, providing estimates of a muscle's force as a function of its activation state and its assumed force–length and force–velocity properties. However, despite their routine use, the accuracy with which Hill-type models predict the forces generated by muscles during submaximal, dynamic tasks remains largely unknown. This study compared human gastrocnemius forces predicted by Hill-type models with the forces estimated from ultrasound-based measures of tendon length changes and stiffness during cycling, over a range of loads and cadences. We tested both a traditional model, with one contractile element, and a differential model, with two contractile elements that accounted for independent contributions of slow and fast muscle fibres. Both models were driven by subject-specific, ultrasound-based measures of fascicle lengths, velocities and pennation angles and by activation patterns of slow and fast muscle fibres derived from surface electromyographic recordings. The models predicted, on average, 54% of the time-varying gastrocnemius forces estimated from the ultrasound-based methods. However, differences between predicted and estimated forces were smaller under low speed–high activation conditions, with models able to predict nearly 80% of the gastrocnemius force over a complete pedal cycle. Additionally, the predictions from the Hill-type muscle models tested here showed that a similar pattern of force production could be achieved for most conditions with and without accounting for the independent contributions of different muscle fibre types. PMID:28202584

Supercritical CO2 Power Cycles: Design Considerations for Concentrating Solar Power

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neises, Ty; Turchi, Craig

2014-09-01

A comparison of three supercritical CO2 Brayton cycles: the simple cycle, recompression cycle and partial-cooling cycle indicates the partial-cooling cycle is favored for use in concentrating solar power (CSP) systems. Although it displays slightly lower cycle efficiency versus the recompression cycle, the partial-cooling cycle is estimated to have lower total recuperator size, as well as a lower maximum s-CO2 temperature in the high-temperature recuperator. Both of these effects reduce recuperator cost. Furthermore, the partial-cooling cycle provides a larger temperature differential across the turbine, which translates into a smaller, more cost-effective thermal energy storage system. The temperature drop across the turbinemore » (and by extension, across a thermal storage system) for the partial-cooling cycle is estimated to be 23% to 35% larger compared to the recompression cycle of equal recuperator conductance between 5 and 15 MW/K. This reduces the size and cost of the thermal storage system. Simulations by NREL and Abengoa Solar indicate the partial-cooling cycle results in a lower LCOE compared with the recompression cycle, despite the former's slightly lower cycle efficiency. Advantages of the recompression cycle include higher thermal efficiency and potential for a smaller precooler. The overall impact favors the use of a partial-cooling cycle for CSP compared to the more commonly analyzed recompression cycle.« less

Estimating the global terrestrial hydrologic cycle through modeling, remote sensing, and data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Ming; Troy, Tara; Sahoo, Alok; Sheffield, Justin; Wood, Eric

2010-05-01

Documentation of the water cycle and its evolution over time is a primary scientific goal of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and fundamental to assessing global change impacts. In developed countries, observation systems that include in-situ, remote sensing and modeled data can provide long-term, consistent and generally high quality datasets of water cycle variables. The export of these technologies to less developed regions has been rare, but it is these regions where information on water availability and change is probably most needed in the face of regional environmental change due to climate, land use and water management. In these data sparse regions, in situ data alone are insufficient to develop a comprehensive picture of how the water cycle is changing, and strategies that merge in-situ, model and satellite observations within a framework that results in consistent water cycle records is essential. Such an approach is envisaged by the Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GOESS), but has yet to be applied. The goal of this study is to quantify the variation and changes in the global water cycle over the past 50 years. We evaluate the global water cycle using a variety of independent large-scale datasets of hydrologic variables that are used to bridge the gap between sparse in-situ observations, including remote-sensing based retrievals, observation-forced hydrologic modeling, and weather model reanalyses. A data assimilation framework that blends these disparate sources of information together in a consistent fashion with attention to budget closure is applied to make best estimates of the global water cycle and its variation. The framework consists of a constrained Kalman filter applied to the water budget equation. With imperfect estimates of the water budget components, the equation additionally has an error residual term that is redistributed across the budget components using error statistics, which are estimated from the uncertainties among data products. The constrained Kalman filter treats the budget closure constraint as a perfect observation within the assimilation framework. Precipitation is estimated using gauge observations, reanalysis products, and remote sensing products for below 50°N. Evapotranspiration is estimated in a number of ways: from the VIC land surface hydrologic model forced with a hybrid reanalysis-observation global forcing dataset, from remote sensing retrievals based on a suite of energy balance and process based models, and from an atmospheric water budget approach using reanalysis products for the atmospheric convergence and storage terms and our best estimate for precipitation. Terrestrial water storage changes, including surface and subsurface changes, are estimated using estimates from both VIC and the GRACE remote sensing retrievals. From these components, discharge can then be calculated as a residual of the water budget and compared with gauge observations to evaluate the closure of the water budget. Through the use of these largely independent data products, we estimate both the mean seasonal cycle of the water budget components and their uncertainties for a set of 20 large river basins across the globe. We particularly focus on three regions of interest in global changes studies: the Northern Eurasian region which is experiencing rapid change in terrestrial processes; the Amazon which is a central part of the global water, energy and carbon budgets; and Africa, which is predicted to face some of the most critical challenges for water and food security in the coming decades.

Estimates of Embodied Global Energy and Air-Emission Intensities of Japanese Products for Building a Japanese Input–Output Life Cycle Assessment Database with a Global System Boundary

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

To build a life cycle assessment (LCA) database of Japanese products embracing their global supply chains in a manner requiring lower time and labor burdens, this study estimates the intensity of embodied global environmental burden for commodities produced in Japan. The intensity of embodied global environmental burden is a measure of the environmental burden generated globally by unit production of the commodity and can be used as life cycle inventory data in LCA. The calculation employs an input–output LCA method with a global link input–output model that defines a global system boundary grounded in a simplified multiregional input–output framework. As results, the intensities of embodied global environmental burden for 406 Japanese commodities are determined in terms of energy consumption, greenhouse-gas emissions (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, perfluorocarbons, hydrofluorocarbons, sulfur hexafluoride, and their summation), and air-pollutant emissions (nitrogen oxide and sulfur oxide). The uncertainties in the intensities of embodied global environmental burden attributable to the simplified structure of the global link input–output model are quantified using Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, by analyzing the structure of the embodied global greenhouse-gas intensities we characterize Japanese commodities in the context of LCA embracing global supply chains. PMID:22881452

Cross-correlation of point series using a new method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strothers, Richard B.

1994-01-01

Traditional methods of cross-correlation of two time series do not apply to point time series. Here, a new method, devised specifically for point series, utilizes a correlation measure that is based in the rms difference (or, alternatively, the median absolute difference) between nearest neightbors in overlapped segments of the two series. Error estimates for the observed locations of the points, as well as a systematic shift of one series with respect to the other to accommodate a constant, but unknown, lead or lag, are easily incorporated into the analysis using Monte Carlo techniques. A methodological restriction adopted here is that one series be treated as a template series against which the other, called the target series, is cross-correlated. To estimate a significance level for the correlation measure, the adopted alternative (null) hypothesis is that the target series arises from a homogeneous Poisson process. The new method is applied to cross-correlating the times of the greatest geomagnetic storms with the times of maximum in the undecennial solar activity cycle.

Light scattering methods to test inorganic PCMs for application in buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Paola, M. G.; Calabrò, V.; De Simone, M.

2017-10-01

Thermal performance and stability over time are key parameters for the characterization and application of PCMs in the building sector. Generally, inorganic PCMs are dispersions of hydrated salts and additives in water that counteract phase segregation phenomena and subcooling. Traditional methods or in “house” methods can be used for evaluating thermal properties, while stability can be estimated over time by using optical techniques. By considering this double approach, in this work thermal and structural analyses of Glauber salt based composite PCMs are conducted by means of non-conventional equipment: T-history method (thermal analysis) and Turbiscan (stability analysis). Three samples with the same composition (Glauber salt with additives) were prepared by using different sonication times and their thermal performances were compared by testing both the thermal cycling and the thermal properties. The stability of the mixtures was verified by the identification of destabilization phenomena, the evaluation of the migration velocities of particles and the estimation of variation of particle size.

Timber Volume and Biomass Estimates in Central Siberia from Satellite Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ranson, K. Jon; Kimes, Daniel S.; Kharuk, Vyetcheslav I.

2007-01-01

Mapping of boreal forest's type, structure parameters and biomass are critical for understanding the boreal forest's significance in the carbon cycle, its response to and impact on global climate change. The biggest deficiency of the existing ground based forest inventories is the uncertainty in the inventory data, particularly in remote areas of Siberia where sampling is sparse, lacking, and often decades old. Remote sensing methods can help overcome these problems. In this joint US and Russian study, we used the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and unique waveform data of the geoscience laser altimeter system (GLAS) and produced a map of timber volume for a 10degx12deg area in Central Siberia. Using these methods, the mean timber volume for the forested area in the total study area was 203 m3/ ha. The new remote sensing methods used in this study provide a truly independent estimate of forest structure, which is not dependent on traditional ground forest inventory methods.

Estimation of corn yield using multi-temporal optical and radar satellite data and artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fieuzal, R.; Marais Sicre, C.; Baup, F.

2017-05-01

The yield forecasting of corn constitutes a key issue in agricultural management, particularly in the context of demographic pressure and climate change. This study presents two methods to estimate yields using artificial neural networks: a diagnostic approach based on all the satellite data acquired throughout the agricultural season, and a real-time approach, where estimates are updated after each image was acquired in the microwave and optical domains (Formosat-2, Spot-4/5, TerraSAR-X, and Radarsat-2) throughout the crop cycle. The results are based on the Multispectral Crop Monitoring experimental campaign conducted by the CESBIO (Centre d'Études de la BIOsphère) laboratory in 2010 over an agricultural region in southwestern France. Among the tested sensor configurations (multi-frequency, multi-polarization or multi-source data), the best yield estimation performance (using the diagnostic approach) is obtained with reflectance acquired in the red wavelength region, with a coefficient of determination of 0.77 and an RMSE of 6.6 q ha-1. In the real-time approach the combination of red reflectance and CHH backscattering coefficients provides the best compromise between the accuracy and earliness of the yield estimate (more than 3 months before the harvest), with an R2 of 0.69 and an RMSE of 7.0 q ha-1 during the development of the central stem. The two best yield estimates are similar in most cases (for more than 80% of the monitored fields), and the differences are related to discrepancies in the crop growth cycle and/or the consequences of pests.

An "In Situ" Calibration Correction Procedure (KCICLO) Based on AOD Diurnal Cycle: Application to AERONET-El Arenosillo (Spain) AOD Data Series

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cachorro, V. E.; Toledano, C.; Berjon, A.

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) very often shows a distinct diurnal cycle pattern, which seems to be an artifact resulting from an incorrect calibration (or an equivalent effect, such as filter degradation). The shape of this fictitious AOD diurnal cycle varies as the inverse of the solar air mass (m) and the magnitude of the effect is greatest at midday. The observation of this effect is not easy at many field stations, and only those stations with good weather conditions permit an easier detection and the possibility of its correction. By taking advantage of this dependence on the air mass, wemore » propose an improved “in situ” correction-calibration procedure to AOD measured data series. The method is named KCICLO because the determination of a constant K and the behavior of AOD as a cycle (ciclo, in Spanish). We estimate it has an accuracy of 0.2–0.5% for the calibration ratio constant K, or 0.002–0.005 in AOD at field stations. Although the KCICLO is an “in situ” calibration method, we recommend it to be used as an AOD correction method for field stations. At high-altitude sites, it may be used independently of the classical Langley method (CLM). However, we also recommend it to be used as a complement to CLM, improving it considerably. The application of this calibration correction method to the nearly 5 year AOD data series at El Arenosillo (Huelva, southwestern Spain) station belonging to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)-PHOTONS shows that 8 (50%) of 16 filters of the four analyzed Sun photometers were outside of the 0.02 uncertainty of AERONET specification. The largest departures reached values of 0.06. The results show the efficiency of the method and a significant improvement over other “in situ” methods, with no other information required beyond the same AOD data.« less

Evaluating Sleep Disturbance: A Review of Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Roy M.; Oyung, R.; Gregory, K.; Miller, D.; Rosekind, M.; Rosekind, Mark R. (Technical Monitor)

1996-01-01

There are three general approaches to evaluating sleep disturbance in regards to noise: subjective, behavioral, and physiological. Subjective methods range from standardized questionnaires and scales to self-report measures designed for specific research questions. There are two behavioral methods that provide useful sleep disturbance data. One behavioral method is actigraphy, a motion detector that provides an empirical estimate of sleep quantity and quality. An actigraph, worn on the non-dominant wrist, provides a 24-hr estimate of the rest/activity cycle. The other method involves a behavioral response, either to a specific probe or stimuli or subject initiated (e.g., indicating wakefulness). The classic, gold standard for evaluating sleep disturbance is continuous physiological monitoring of brain, eye, and muscle activity. This allows detailed distinctions of the states and stages of sleep, awakenings, and sleep continuity. Physiological delta can be obtained in controlled laboratory settings and in natural environments. Current ambulatory physiological recording equipment allows evaluation in home and work settings. These approaches will be described and the relative strengths and limitations of each method will be discussed.

Quantifying Standing Dead Tree Volume and Structural Loss with Voxelized Terrestrial Lidar Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popescu, S. C.; Putman, E.

2017-12-01

Standing dead trees (SDTs) are an important forest component and impact a variety of ecosystem processes, yet the carbon pool dynamics of SDTs are poorly constrained in terrestrial carbon cycling models. The ability to model wood decay and carbon cycling in relation to detectable changes in tree structure and volume over time would greatly improve such models. The overall objective of this study was to provide automated aboveground volume estimates of SDTs and automated procedures to detect, quantify, and characterize structural losses over time with terrestrial lidar data. The specific objectives of this study were: 1) develop an automated SDT volume estimation algorithm providing accurate volume estimates for trees scanned in dense forests; 2) develop an automated change detection methodology to accurately detect and quantify SDT structural loss between subsequent terrestrial lidar observations; and 3) characterize the structural loss rates of pine and oak SDTs in southeastern Texas. A voxel-based volume estimation algorithm, "TreeVolX", was developed and incorporates several methods designed to robustly process point clouds of varying quality levels. The algorithm operates on horizontal voxel slices by segmenting the slice into distinct branch or stem sections then applying an adaptive contour interpolation and interior filling process to create solid reconstructed tree models (RTMs). TreeVolX estimated large and small branch volume with an RMSE of 7.3% and 13.8%, respectively. A voxel-based change detection methodology was developed to accurately detect and quantify structural losses and incorporated several methods to mitigate the challenges presented by shifting tree and branch positions as SDT decay progresses. The volume and structural loss of 29 SDTs, composed of Pinus taeda and Quercus stellata, were successfully estimated using multitemporal terrestrial lidar observations over elapsed times ranging from 71 - 753 days. Pine and oak structural loss rates were characterized by estimating the amount of volumetric loss occurring in 20 equal-interval height bins of each SDT. Results showed that large pine snags exhibited more rapid structural loss in comparison to medium-sized oak snags in this study.

Determining the anaerobic threshold in water aerobic exercises: a comparison between the heart rate deflection point and the ventilatory method.

PubMed

Alberton, C L; Kanitz, A C; Pinto, S S; Antunes, A H; Finatto, P; Cadore, E L; Kruel, L F M

2013-08-01

The aim of this study was to compare the cardiorespiratory variables corresponding to the anaerobic threshold (AT) between different water-based exercises using two methods of determining the AT, the heart rate deflection point and ventilatory method, and to correlate the variables in both methods. Twenty young women performed three exercise sessions in the water. Maximal tests were performed in the water-based exercises stationary running, frontal kick and cross country skiing. The protocol started at a rate of 80 cycles per minute (cycle.min-1) for 2 min with subsequent increments of 10 cycle.min-1 every minute until exhaustion, with measurements of heart rate, oxygen uptake and ventilation throughout test. After, the two methods were used to determine the values of these variables corresponding to the AT for each of the exercises. Comparisons were made using two-way ANOVA for repeated measures with Bonferroni's post hoc test. To correlate the same variables determined by the two methods, the intra-class correlation coefficient test (ICC) was used. For all the variables, no significant differences were found between the methods of determining the AT and the three exercises. Moreover, the ICC values of each variable determined by the two methods were high and significant. The estimation of the heart rate deflection point can be used as a simple and practical method of determining the AT, which can be used when prescribing these exercises. In addition, these cardiorespiratory parameters may be determined performing the test with only one of the evaluated exercises, since there were no differences in the evaluated variables.

Comparative assessment of methods for estimating tree canopy cover across a rural-to-urban gradient in the mid-Atlantic region of the USA

Treesearch

Rachel Riemann; Greg C. Liknes; Jarlath O' Neil-Dunne; Chris Toney; Tonya Lister

2016-01-01

Tree canopy cover significantly affects human and wildlife habitats, local hydrology, carbon cycles, fire behavior, and ecosystem services of all types. In addition, changes in tree canopy cover are both indicators and consequences of a wide variety of disturbances from urban development to climate change. There is growing demand for this information nationwide and...

Energetics during hatchling dispersal of the olive ridley turtle Lepidochelys olivacea using doubly labeled water.

PubMed

Clusella Trullas, Susana; Spotila, James R; Paladino, Frank V

2006-01-01

Studies of metabolism are central to the understanding of the ecology, behavior, and evolution of reptiles. This study focuses on one phase of the sea turtle life cycle, hatchling dispersal, and gives insight into energetic constraints that dispersal imposes on hatchlings. Hatchling dispersal is an energetically expensive phase in the life cycle of the olive ridley turtle Lepidochelys olivacea. Field metabolic rates (FMRs), determined using the doubly labeled water (DLW) method, for L. olivacea hatchlings digging out of their nest chamber, crawling at the sand surface, and swimming were five, four, and seven times, respectively, the resting metabolic rate (RMR). The cost of swimming was 1.5 and 1.8 times the cost of the digging and crawling phases, respectively, and we estimated that if L. olivacea hatchlings swim at frenzy levels, they can rely on yolk reserves to supply energy for only 3-6 d once they reach the ocean. We compared our RMR and FMR values by establishing an interspecific RMR mass-scaling relationship for a wide range of species in the order Testudines and found a scaling exponent of 1.06. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using the DLW method to estimate energetic costs of free-living sea turtle hatchlings and emphasizes the need for metabolic studies in various life-history stages.

Measurement of viscoelastic properties of in vivo swine myocardium using Lamb Wave Dispersion Ultrasound Vibrometry (LDUV)

PubMed Central

Urban, Matthew W.; Pislaru, Cristina; Nenadic, Ivan Z.; Kinnick, Randall R.; Greenleaf, James F.

2012-01-01

Viscoelastic properties of the myocardium are important for normal cardiac function and may be altered by disease. Thus, quantification of these properties may aid with evaluation of the health of the heart. Lamb Wave Dispersion Ultrasound Vibrometry (LDUV) is a shear wave-based method that uses wave velocity dispersion to measure the underlying viscoelastic material properties of soft tissue with plate-like geometries. We tested this method in eight pigs in an open-chest preparation. A mechanical actuator was used to create harmonic, propagating mechanical waves in the myocardial wall. The motion was tracked using a high frame rate acquisition sequence, typically 2500 Hz. The velocities of wave propagation were measured over the 50–400 Hz frequency range in 50 Hz increments. Data were acquired over several cardiac cycles. Dispersion curves were fit with a viscoelastic, anti-symmetric Lamb wave model to obtain estimates of the shear elasticity, μ1, and viscosity, μ2 as defined by the Kelvin-Voigt rheological model. The sensitivity of the Lamb wave model was also studied using simulated data. We demonstrated that wave velocity measurements and Lamb wave theory allow one to estimate the variation of viscoelastic moduli of the myocardial walls in vivo throughout the course of the cardiac cycle. PMID:23060325

Market-driven emissions from recovery of carbon dioxide gas.

PubMed

Supekar, Sarang D; Skerlos, Steven J

2014-12-16

This article uses a market-based allocation method in a consequential life cycle assessment (LCA) framework to estimate the environmental emissions created by recovering carbon dioxide (CO2). We find that 1 ton of CO2 recovered as a coproduct of chemicals manufacturing leads to additional greenhouse gas emissions of 147-210 kg CO2 eq , while consuming 160-248 kWh of electricity, 254-480 MJ of heat, and 1836-4027 kg of water. The ranges depend on the initial and final purity of the CO2, particularly because higher purity grades require additional processing steps such as distillation, as well as higher temperature and flow rate of regeneration as needed for activated carbon treatment and desiccant beds. Higher purity also reduces process efficiency due to increased yield losses from regeneration gas and distillation reflux. Mass- and revenue-based allocation methods used in attributional LCA estimate that recovering CO2 leads to 19 and 11 times the global warming impact estimated from a market-based allocation used in consequential LCA.

Modeling the Response of Anopheles gambiae (Diptera: Culicidae) Populations in the Kenya Highlands to a Rise in Mean Annual Temperature.

PubMed

Wallace, Dorothy; Prosper, Olivia; Savos, Jacob; Dunham, Ann M; Chipman, Jonathan W; Shi, Xun; Ndenga, Bryson; Githeko, Andrew

2017-03-01

A dynamical model of Anopheles gambiae larval and adult populations is constructed that matches temperature-dependent maturation times and mortality measured experimentally as well as larval instar and adult mosquito emergence data from field studies in the Kenya Highlands. Spectral classification of high-resolution satellite imagery is used to estimate household density. Indoor resting densities collected over a period of one year combined with predictions of the dynamical model give estimates of both aquatic habitat and total adult mosquito densities. Temperature and precipitation patterns are derived from monthly records. Precipitation patterns are compared with average and extreme habitat estimates to estimate available aquatic habitat in an annual cycle. These estimates are coupled with the original model to produce estimates of adult and larval populations dependent on changing aquatic carrying capacity for larvae and changing maturation and mortality dependent on temperature. This paper offers a general method for estimating the total area of aquatic habitat in a given region, based on larval counts, emergence rates, indoor resting density data, and number of households.Altering the average daily temperature and the average daily rainfall simulates the effect of climate change on annual cycles of prevalence of An. gambiae adults. We show that small increases in average annual temperature have a large impact on adult mosquito density, whether measured at model equilibrium values for a single square meter of habitat or tracked over the course of a year of varying habitat availability and temperature. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A Novel Attitude Estimation Algorithm Based on the Non-Orthogonal Magnetic Sensors

PubMed Central

Zhu, Jianliang; Wu, Panlong; Bo, Yuming

2016-01-01

Because the existing extremum ratio method for projectile attitude measurement is vulnerable to random disturbance, a novel integral ratio method is proposed to calculate the projectile attitude. First, the non-orthogonal measurement theory of the magnetic sensors is analyzed. It is found that the projectile rotating velocity is constant in one spinning circle and the attitude error is actually the pitch error. Next, by investigating the model of the extremum ratio method, an integral ratio mathematical model is established to improve the anti-disturbance performance. Finally, by combining the preprocessed magnetic sensor data based on the least-square method and the rotating extremum features in one cycle, the analytical expression of the proposed integral ratio algorithm is derived with respect to the pitch angle. The simulation results show that the proposed integral ratio method gives more accurate attitude calculations than does the extremum ratio method, and that the attitude error variance can decrease by more than 90%. Compared to the extremum ratio method (which collects only a single data point in one rotation cycle), the proposed integral ratio method can utilize all of the data collected in the high spin environment, which is a clearly superior calculation approach, and can be applied to the actual projectile environment disturbance. PMID:27213389

Stochastic spectral projection of electrochemical thermal model for lithium-ion cell state estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tagade, Piyush; Hariharan, Krishnan S.; Kolake, Subramanya Mayya; Song, Taewon; Oh, Dukjin

2017-03-01

A novel approach for integrating a pseudo-two dimensional electrochemical thermal (P2D-ECT) model and data assimilation algorithm is presented for lithium-ion cell state estimation. This approach refrains from making any simplifications in the P2D-ECT model while making it amenable for online state estimation. Though deterministic, uncertainty in the initial states induces stochasticity in the P2D-ECT model. This stochasticity is resolved by spectrally projecting the stochastic P2D-ECT model on a set of orthogonal multivariate Hermite polynomials. Volume averaging in the stochastic dimensions is proposed for efficient numerical solution of the resultant model. A state estimation framework is developed using a transformation of the orthogonal basis to assimilate the measurables with this system of equations. Effectiveness of the proposed method is first demonstrated by assimilating the cell voltage and temperature data generated using a synthetic test bed. This validated method is used with the experimentally observed cell voltage and temperature data for state estimation at different operating conditions and drive cycle protocols. The results show increased prediction accuracy when the data is assimilated every 30s. High accuracy of the estimated states is exploited to infer temperature dependent behavior of the lithium-ion cell.

A Probabilistic Method of Assessing Carbon Accumulation Rate at Imnavait Creek Peatland, Arctic Long Term Ecological Research Station, Alaska

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nichols, Jonathan E.; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Frolking, Steve; Karavias, John

2017-01-01

Arctic peatlands are an important part of the global carbon cycle, accumulating atmospheric carbon as organic matter since the Late glacial. Current methods for understanding the changing efficiency of the peatland carbon sink rely on peatlands with an undisturbed stratigraphy. Here we present a method of estimating primary carbon accumulation rate from a site where permafrost processes have either vertically or horizontally translocated nearby carbon-rich sediment out of stratigraphic order. Briefly, our new algorithm estimates the probability of the age of deposition of a random increment of sediment in the core. The method assumes that if sediment age is measured at even depth increments, dates are more likely to occur during intervals of higher accumulation rate and vice versa. Multiplying estimated sedimentation rate by measured carbon density yields carbon accumulation rate. We perform this analysis at the Imnavait Creek Peatland, near the Arctic Long Term Ecological Research network site at Toolik Lake, Alaska. Using classical radiocarbon age modeling, we find unreasonably high rates of carbon accumulation at various Holocene intervals. With our new method, we find accumulation rate changes that are in improved agreement within the context of other sites throughout Alaska and the rest of the Circum-Arctic region.

GLEAM version 3: Global Land Evaporation Datasets and Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martens, B.; Miralles, D. G.; Lievens, H.; van der Schalie, R.; de Jeu, R.; Fernandez-Prieto, D.; Verhoest, N.

2015-12-01

Terrestrial evaporation links energy, water and carbon cycles over land and is therefore a key variable of the climate system. However, the global-scale magnitude and variability of the flux, and the sensitivity of the underlying physical process to changes in environmental factors, are still poorly understood due to limitations in in situ measurements. As a result, several methods have risen to estimate global patterns of land evaporation from satellite observations. However, these algorithms generally differ in their approach to model evaporation, resulting in large differences in their estimates. One of these methods is GLEAM, the Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology. GLEAM estimates terrestrial evaporation based on daily satellite observations of meteorological variables, vegetation characteristics and soil moisture. Since the publication of the first version of the algorithm (2011), the model has been widely applied to analyse trends in the water cycle and land-atmospheric feedbacks during extreme hydrometeorological events. A third version of the GLEAM global datasets is foreseen by the end of 2015. Given the relevance of having a continuous and reliable record of global-scale evaporation estimates for climate and hydrological research, the establishment of an online data portal to host these data to the public is also foreseen. In this new release of the GLEAM datasets, different components of the model have been updated, with the most significant change being the revision of the data assimilation algorithm. In this presentation, we will highlight the most important changes of the methodology and present three new GLEAM datasets and their validation against in situ observations and an alternative dataset of terrestrial evaporation (ERA-Land). Results of the validation exercise indicate that the magnitude and the spatiotemporal variability of the modelled evaporation agree reasonably well with the estimates of ERA-Land and the in situ observations. It is also shown that the performance of the revised model is higher compared to the original one.

Pegfilgrastim prophylaxis is associated with a lower risk of hospitalization of cancer patients than filgrastim prophylaxis: a retrospective United States claims analysis of granulocyte colony-stimulating factors (G-CSF)

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Myelosuppressive chemotherapy can lead to dose-limiting febrile neutropenia. Prophylactic use of recombinant human G-CSF such as daily filgrastim and once-per-cycle pegfilgrastim may reduce the incidence of febrile neutropenia. This comparative study examined the effect of pegfilgrastim versus daily filgrastim on the risk of hospitalization. Methods This retrospective United States claims analysis utilized 2004–2009 data for filgrastim- and pegfilgrastim-treated patients receiving chemotherapy for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL) or breast, lung, ovarian, or colorectal cancers. Cycles in which pegfilgrastim or filgrastim was administered within 5 days from initiation of chemotherapy (considered to represent prophylaxis) were pooled for analysis. Neutropenia-related hospitalization and other healthcare encounters were defined with a “narrow” criterion for claims with an ICD-9 code for neutropenia and with a “broad” criterion for claims with an ICD-9 code for neutropenia, fever, or infection. Odds ratios (OR) for hospitalization and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated by generalized estimating equation (GEE) models and adjusted for patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics. Per-cycle healthcare utilization and costs were examined for cycles with pegfilgrastim or filgrastim prophylaxis. Results We identified 3,535 patients receiving G-CSF prophylaxis, representing 12,056 chemotherapy cycles (11,683 pegfilgrastim, 373 filgrastim). The mean duration of filgrastim prophylaxis in the sample was 4.8 days. The mean duration of pegfilgrastim prophylaxis in the sample was 1.0 day, consistent with the recommended dosage of pegfilgrastim - a single injection once per chemotherapy cycle. Cycles with prophylactic pegfilgrastim were associated with a decreased risk of neutropenia-related hospitalization (narrow definition: OR = 0.43, 95% CI: 0.16–1.13; broad definition: OR = 0.38, 95% CI: 0.24–0.59) and all-cause hospitalization (OR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.35–0.72) versus cycles with prophylactic filgrastim. For neutropenia-related utilization by setting of care, there were more ambulatory visits and hospitalizations per cycle associated with filgrastim prophylaxis than with pegfilgrastim prophylaxis. Mean per-cycle neutropenia-related costs were also higher with prophylactic filgrastim than with prophylactic pegfilgrastim. Conclusions In this comparative effectiveness study, pegfilgrastim prophylaxis was associated with a reduced risk of neutropenia-related or all-cause hospitalization relative to filgrastim prophylaxis. PMID:23298389

Refractory Materials for Flame Deflector Protection System Corrosion Control: Flame Deflector Protection System Life Cycle Cost Analysis Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Calle, Luz Marina; Hintze, Paul E.; Parlier, Christopher R.; Coffman, Brekke E.; Kolody, Mark R.; Curran, Jerome P.; Trejo, David; Reinschmidt, Ken; Kim, Hyung-Jin

2009-01-01

A 20-year life cycle cost analysis was performed to compare the operational life cycle cost, processing/turnaround timelines, and operations manpower inspection/repair/refurbishment requirements for corrosion protection of the Kennedy Space Center launch pad flame deflector associated with the existing cast-in-place materials and a newer advanced refractory ceramic material. The analysis compared the estimated costs of(1) continuing to use of the current refractory material without any changes; (2) completely reconstructing the flame trench using the current refractory material; and (3) completely reconstructing the flame trench with a new high-performance refractory material. Cost estimates were based on an analysis of the amount of damage that occurs after each launch and an estimate of the average repair cost. Alternative 3 was found to save $32M compared to alternative 1 and $17M compared to alternative 2 over a 20-year life cycle.

Study of cyclic thermal aging of tube type receivers as a function of the duration of the cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setien, Eneko; Fernández-Reche, Jesús; Ariza, María Jesús; Álvarez-de-Lara, Mónica

2017-06-01

The tube type receivers are exposed to variable duration cyclic operating conditions, which can jeopardize its reliability, and make it hard to estimate its long term performance. The designers have to deal with this problem and estimate the receiver long term performance based on the poor available litterature and the data sheets of the material. In order to help the designer better estimate the performance of the receivers, in this paper the cyclic thermal aging is analyzed as a function of the cycle duration. For this purpose, coated and uncoated Inconel alloy 625 tubular samples, similar to those used in the commercial receivers, are cyclically aged with different thermal cycle duration. The aging of these samples has been analyzed by means of oxidation kinetics, microstructure examination and mechanical and optical properties. The effect of the thermal cycle duration is studied and discussed by comparison of the results.

Economic Data and Models in a Greenhouse Gas Monitoring System (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reilly, J. M.

2010-12-01

Under the Framework Convention for Climate Change a system of inventory reporting of greenhouse gas emissions has been developed (UNFCCC, 2010). The system is based on a bottom-up approach that identifies activities associated with emissions (e.g. coal burning, rice production), develops coefficients associated with each unit of the activity (ton of coal, hectare of rice), and then based on the level of the activity (total tons, hectares) arrives through multiplication at an estimate of annual emissions at a country level. Tier 1, 2, and 3 approaches vary in the level of detail taken into account in making estimates, in large part attempting to take account of variation in emissions coefficients based on experimental measurements that may not be representative of the countries actual activities (differences among rice fields, livestock, etc). Top-down approaches use direct measurements of concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere and inverse methods and assimilated weather data to estimate emissions sources (e.g. Prinn, 2000). The statistical approaches used rely on known relationships, measurements, and estimates of error to reconcile different measurements to improve the estimate of interest—i.e. emissions. While inverse methods have typically relied on measurement of concentrations, economic data and relationships such as those used in bottom-up reporting could also be brought into the inverse calculations to reconcile estimates of anthropogenic emissions in national reports with those of natural emissions , of non-reporting countries, and of concentrations. For example, per unit emissions from coal, oil, or gas combustion are well constrained, and estimates of tons know reasonably well but with some uncertainty. Inverse methods may improve estimates of tons of fuel combusted but because they are relatively well known that information is likely to tightly constrain fossil emissions and thus improve the estimate of emissions from land use change which are more poorly known. If inverse methods are to be used for treaty verification, it would seem particularly important to incorporate economic data because so far treaties have covered emissions from "anthropogenic" emissions and there may not be a distinct physical signature to identify concentration changes related to legally defined anthropogenic sources from natural sources (e.g. emissions or uptake on managed forest land from a natural change in uptake of carbon on land or nitrous oxide emissions related to land management (inorganic or organic fertilizers) from N2O from natural cycles. There are many issues that would need to be resolved to effectively utilize economic activity data in inverse calculations. In particular, economic activity data often lacks spatial and temporal resolution as it is reported for political units (e.g. at the national level) and often only annually. However, given the potential gain these data could contribute to top down estimates it is worth further investigating their incorporation, and it may give impetus to efforts to create economic data sets with greater spatial and temporal resolution. Prinn, R.G., 2000: Measurement Equation for Trace Chemicals in Fluids and Solution of its Inverse, in Inverse Methods in Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Geophysical Monograph 114, American Geophysical Union. UNFCCC, 2010, National Reports at http://unfccc.int/national_reports/items/1408.php

Evaluation of Strain-Life Fatigue Curve Estimation Methods and Their Application to a Direct-Quenched High-Strength Steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dabiri, M.; Ghafouri, M.; Rohani Raftar, H. R.; Björk, T.

2018-03-01

Methods to estimate the strain-life curve, which were divided into three categories: simple approximations, artificial neural network-based approaches and continuum damage mechanics models, were examined, and their accuracy was assessed in strain-life evaluation of a direct-quenched high-strength steel. All the prediction methods claim to be able to perform low-cycle fatigue analysis using available or easily obtainable material properties, thus eliminating the need for costly and time-consuming fatigue tests. Simple approximations were able to estimate the strain-life curve with satisfactory accuracy using only monotonic properties. The tested neural network-based model, although yielding acceptable results for the material in question, was found to be overly sensitive to the data sets used for training and showed an inconsistency in estimation of the fatigue life and fatigue properties. The studied continuum damage-based model was able to produce a curve detecting early stages of crack initiation. This model requires more experimental data for calibration than approaches using simple approximations. As a result of the different theories underlying the analyzed methods, the different approaches have different strengths and weaknesses. However, it was found that the group of parametric equations categorized as simple approximations are the easiest for practical use, with their applicability having already been verified for a broad range of materials.

Climate sensitivity derived from orbital-scale, δ11B-based pCO2 estimates in the early Pleistocene, ~1.5 Ma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dyez, K. A.; Hoenisch, B.

2015-12-01

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the late Pleistocene have been characterized from ancient air bubbles trapped within polar ice sheets. Ice-core records clearly demonstrate the glacial-interglacial relationship between the global carbon cycle and climate, but they are so far limited to the last 800 ky, when glacial cycles occurred approximately every 100-ky. Boron isotope ratios (δ11B) recorded in the tests of fossil planktic foraminifera offer an opportunity to extend the atmospheric pCO2 record into the early Pleistocene, when glacial cycles instead occurred approximately every 41-ky. We present a new high-resolution record of planktic foraminiferal d11B, Mg/Ca (a sea surface temperature proxy) and salinity estimates from the deconvolution of δ18O and Mg/Ca. Combined with reasonable assumptions of ocean alkalinity, these data allow us to estimate pCO2 over three of the 41-ky climate cycles at ~1.5 Ma. Our results confirm the hypothesis that climate and atmospheric pCO2 were coupled beyond ice core records and provide new constraints for studies of long-term CO2 storage and release, regional controls on the early Pleistocene carbon cycle, and estimating climate sensitivity before the mid-Pleistocene transition.

Global estimation of evapotranspiration using a leaf area index-based surface energy and water balance model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Studies of global hydrologic cycles, carbon cycles and climate change are greatly facilitated when global estimates of evapotranspiration (E) are available. We have developed an air-relative-humidity-based two-source (ARTS) E model that simulates the surface energy balance, soil water balance, and e...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Woodroffe, J. R.; Brito, T. V.; Jordanova, V. K.

In the standard practice of neutron multiplicity counting , the first three sampled factorial moments of the event triggered neutron count distribution were used to quantify the three main neutron source terms: the spontaneous fissile material effective mass, the relative (α,n) production and the induced fission source responsible for multiplication. Our study compares three methods to quantify the statistical uncertainty of the estimated mass: the bootstrap method, propagation of variance through moments, and statistical analysis of cycle data method. Each of the three methods was implemented on a set of four different NMC measurements, held at the JRC-laboratory in Ispra,more » Italy, sampling four different Pu samples in a standard Plutonium Scrap Multiplicity Counter (PSMC) well counter.« less

Battery Capacity Fading Estimation Using a Force-Based Incremental Capacity Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Samad, Nassim A.; Kim, Youngki; Siegel, Jason B.

Traditionally health monitoring techniques in lithium-ion batteries rely on voltage and current measurements. A novel method of using a mechanical rather than electrical signal in the incremental capacity analysis (ICA) method is introduced in this paper. This method derives the incremental capacity curves based onmeasured force (ICF) instead of voltage (ICV). The force ismeasured on the surface of a cell under compression in a fixture that replicates a battery pack assembly and preloading. The analysis is performed on data collected from cycling encased prismatic Lithium-ion Nickel-Manganese-Cobalt Oxide (NMC) cells. For the NMC chemistry, the ICF method can complement or replacemore » the ICV method for the following reasons. The identified ICV peaks are centered around 40% of state of charge (SOC) while the peaks of the ICF method are centered around 70% of SOC indicating that the ICF can be used more often because it is more likely that an electric vehicle (EV) or a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) will traverse the 70% SOC range than the 40% SOC. In addition the Signal to Noise ratio (SNR) of the force signal is four times larger than the voltage signal using laboratory grade sensors. The proposed ICF method is shown to achieve 0.42% accuracy in capacity estimation during a low C-rate constant current discharge. Future work will investigate the application of the capacity estimation technique under charging and operation under high C-rates by addressing the transient behavior of force so that an online methodology for capacity estimation is developed.« less

Battery Capacity Fading Estimation Using a Force-Based Incremental Capacity Analysis

DOE PAGES

Samad, Nassim A.; Kim, Youngki; Siegel, Jason B.; ...

2016-05-27

Traditionally health monitoring techniques in lithium-ion batteries rely on voltage and current measurements. A novel method of using a mechanical rather than electrical signal in the incremental capacity analysis (ICA) method is introduced in this paper. This method derives the incremental capacity curves based onmeasured force (ICF) instead of voltage (ICV). The force ismeasured on the surface of a cell under compression in a fixture that replicates a battery pack assembly and preloading. The analysis is performed on data collected from cycling encased prismatic Lithium-ion Nickel-Manganese-Cobalt Oxide (NMC) cells. For the NMC chemistry, the ICF method can complement or replacemore » the ICV method for the following reasons. The identified ICV peaks are centered around 40% of state of charge (SOC) while the peaks of the ICF method are centered around 70% of SOC indicating that the ICF can be used more often because it is more likely that an electric vehicle (EV) or a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) will traverse the 70% SOC range than the 40% SOC. In addition the Signal to Noise ratio (SNR) of the force signal is four times larger than the voltage signal using laboratory grade sensors. The proposed ICF method is shown to achieve 0.42% accuracy in capacity estimation during a low C-rate constant current discharge. Future work will investigate the application of the capacity estimation technique under charging and operation under high C-rates by addressing the transient behavior of force so that an online methodology for capacity estimation is developed.« less

Assessing human health response in life cycle assessment using ED10s and DALYs: part 1--Cancer effects.

PubMed

Crettaz, Pierre; Pennington, David; Rhomberg, Lorenz; Brand, Kevin; Jolliet, Olivier

2002-10-01

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a framework for comparing products according to their total estimated environmental impact, summed over all chemical emissions and activities associated with a product at all stages in its life cycle (from raw material acquisition, manufacturing, use, to final disposal). For each chemical involved, the exposure associated with the mass released into the environment, integrated over time and space, is multiplied by a toxicological measure to estimate the likelihood of effects and their potential consequences. In this article, we explore the use of quantitative methods drawn from conventional single-chemical regulatory risk assessments to create a procedure for the estimation of the cancer effect measure in the impact phase of LCA. The approach is based on the maximum likelihood estimate of the effect dose inducing a 10% response over background, ED10, and default linear low-dose extrapolation using the slope betaED10 (0.1/ED10). The calculated effects may correspond to residual risks below current regulatory compliance requirements that occur over multiple generations and at multiple locations; but at the very least they represent a "using up" of some portion of the human population's ability to accommodate emissions. Preliminary comparisons are performed with existing measures, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA's) slope factor measure q1*. By analyzing bioassay data for 44 chemicals drawn from the EPA's Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) database, we explore estimating ED10 from more readily available information such as the median tumor dose rate TD50 and the median single lethal dose LD50. Based on the TD50, we then estimate the ED10 for more than 600 chemicals. Differences in potential consequences, or severity, are addressed by combining betaED10 with the measure disability adjusted life years per affected person, DALYp. Most of the variation among chemicals for cancer effects is found to be due to differences in the slope factors (betaED10) ranging from 10(-4) up to 10(4) (risk of cancer/mg/kg-day).

Life cycle assessment of TV sets in China: a case study of the impacts of CRT monitors.

PubMed

Song, Qingbin; Wang, Zhishi; Li, Jinhui; Zeng, Xianlai

2012-10-01

Along with the rapid increase in both production and use of TV sets in China, there is an increasing awareness of the environmental impacts related to the accelerating mass production, electricity use, and waste management of these sets. This paper aims to describe the application of life cycle assessment (LCA) to investigate the environmental performance of Chinese TV sets. An assessment of the TV set device (focusing on the Cathode Ray Tube (CRT) monitor) was carried out using a detailed modular LCA based on the international standards of the ISO 14040 series. The LCA was constructed using SimaPro software version 7.2 and expressed with the Eco-indicator' 99 life cycle impact assessment method. For a sensitivity analysis of the overall LCA results, the CML method was used in order to estimate the influence of the choice of the assessment method on the results. Life cycle inventory information was compiled by Ecoinvent 2.2 databases, combined with literature and field investigations on the current Chinese situation. The established LCA study shows that the use stage of such devices has the highest environmental impact, followed by the manufacturing stage. In the manufacturing stage, the CRT and the Printed Circuit Board (PCB) are those components contributing the most environmental impacts. During the use phase, the environmental impacts are due entirely to the methods of electricity generation used to run them, since no other aspects were taken into account for this phase. The final processing step-the end-of-life stage-can lead to a clear environmental benefit when the TV sets are processed through the formal dismantling enterprises in China. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental impact assessment and eco-friendly decision-making in civil structures.

PubMed

Kim, Sang-Hyo; Choi, Moon-Seock; Mha, Ho-Seong; Joung, Jung-Yeun

2013-09-15

This study develops two useful procedures in performing an environmental-impact assessment. One is the advanced life-cycle assessment (LCA) method, which effectively tracks the flow of materials and considers the recycling and demolition of a civil structure. The other is an eco-friendly decision-making procedure, which may effectively apply when determining the prototype of a civil structure. The advanced LCA method differs from traditional LCA procedure, as it classifies the input material prior to the impact assessment. Classification work is performed to establish independent life-cycle stages for each material. The processes of recycling and demolition are appropriately added to the life-cycle stages. The impact assessment is performed separately for the materials, and results are aggregated at the end of the analysis. The eco-friendly decision-making procedure enables designers to choose an economical, and environmentally friendly, alternative during the planning phase of the construction project. This procedure rationally amalgamates economical value and environmental effects into a single indicator. The life cycle cost (LCC) of a structure can be analysed by using conventional LCC tools, whereas the environmental impact is estimated by LCA. The results from LCC and LCA are then integrated by using either a CO2 conversion method or an analytical hierarchy process (AHP). The CO2 conversion method presents the result as a monetary value, whereas the AHP presents the result as a non-dimensional value. A practical example using a steel box girder bridge and a pre-stressed concrete (PSC) box-girder bridge is also given in order to aid the understanding of the presented procedure. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Life cycle assessment of TV sets in China: A case study of the impacts of CRT monitors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Song Qingbin; Wang Zhishi, E-mail: zswang@umac.mo; Li Jinhui

2012-10-15

Along with the rapid increase in both production and use of TV sets in China, there is an increasing awareness of the environmental impacts related to the accelerating mass production, electricity use, and waste management of these sets. This paper aims to describe the application of life cycle assessment (LCA) to investigate the environmental performance of Chinese TV sets. An assessment of the TV set device (focusing on the Cathode Ray Tube (CRT) monitor) was carried out using a detailed modular LCA based on the international standards of the ISO 14040 series. The LCA was constructed using SimaPro software versionmore » 7.2 and expressed with the Eco-indicator' 99 life cycle impact assessment method. For a sensitivity analysis of the overall LCA results, the CML method was used in order to estimate the influence of the choice of the assessment method on the results. Life cycle inventory information was compiled by Ecoinvent 2.2 databases, combined with literature and field investigations on the current Chinese situation. The established LCA study shows that the use stage of such devices has the highest environmental impact, followed by the manufacturing stage. In the manufacturing stage, the CRT and the Printed Circuit Board (PCB) are those components contributing the most environmental impacts. During the use phase, the environmental impacts are due entirely to the methods of electricity generation used to run them, since no other aspects were taken into account for this phase. The final processing step-the end-of-life stage-can lead to a clear environmental benefit when the TV sets are processed through the formal dismantling enterprises in China.« less

Economic impact of reduced mortality due to increased cycling.

PubMed

Rutter, Harry; Cavill, Nick; Racioppi, Francesca; Dinsdale, Hywell; Oja, Pekka; Kahlmeier, Sonja

2013-01-01

Increasing regular physical activity is a key public health goal. One strategy is to change the physical environment to encourage walking and cycling, requiring partnerships with the transport and urban planning sectors. Economic evaluation is an important factor in the decision to fund any new transport scheme, but techniques for assessing the economic value of the health benefits of cycling and walking have tended to be less sophisticated than the approaches used for assessing other benefits. This study aimed to produce a practical tool for estimating the economic impact of reduced mortality due to increased cycling. The tool was intended to be transparent, easy to use, reliable, and based on conservative assumptions and default values, which can be used in the absence of local data. It addressed the question: For a given volume of cycling within a defined population, what is the economic value of the health benefits? The authors used published estimates of relative risk of all-cause mortality among regular cyclists and applied these to levels of cycling defined by the user to produce an estimate of the number of deaths potentially averted because of regular cycling. The tool then calculates the economic value of the deaths averted using the "value of a statistical life." The outputs of the tool support decision making on cycle infrastructure or policies, or can be used as part of an integrated economic appraisal. The tool's unique contribution is that it takes a public health approach to a transport problem, addresses it in epidemiologic terms, and places the results back into the transport context. Examples of its use include its adoption by the English and Swedish departments of transport as the recommended methodologic approach for estimating the health impact of walking and cycling. Copyright © 2013 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The two-phase flow IPTT method for measurement of nonwetting-wetting liquid interfacial areas at higher nonwetting saturations in natural porous media

PubMed Central

Zhong, Hua; Ouni, Asma El; Lin, Dan; Wang, Bingguo; Brusseau, Mark L

2017-01-01

Interfacial areas between nonwetting-wetting (NW-W) liquids in natural porous media were measured using a modified version of the interfacial partitioning tracer test (IPTT) method that employed simultaneous two-phase flow conditions, which allowed measurement at NW saturations higher than trapped residual saturation. Measurements were conducted over a range of saturations for a well-sorted quartz sand under three wetting scenarios of primary drainage (PD), secondary imbibition (SI), and secondary drainage (SD). Limited sets of experiments were also conducted for a model glass-bead medium and for a soil. The measured interfacial areas were compared to interfacial areas measured using the standard IPTT method for liquid-liquid systems, which employs residual NW saturations. In addition, the theoretical maximum interfacial areas estimated from the measured data are compared to specific solid surface areas measured with the N2/BET method and estimated based on geometrical calculations for smooth spheres. Interfacial areas increase linearly with decreasing water saturation over the range of saturations employed. The maximum interfacial areas determined for the glass beads, which have no surface roughness, are 32±4 and 36±5 cm−1 for PD and SI cycles, respectively. The values are similar to the geometric specific solid surface area (31±2 cm−1) and the N2/BET solid surface area (28±2 cm−1). The maximum interfacial areas are 274±38, 235±27, and 581±160 cm−1 for the sand for PD, SI, and SD cycles, respectively, and ~7625 cm−1 for the soil for PD and SI. The maximum interfacial areas for the sand and soil are significantly larger than the estimated smooth-sphere specific solid surface areas (107±8 cm−1 and 152±8 cm−1, respectively), but much smaller than the N2/BET solid surface area (1387±92 cm−1 and 55224 cm−1, respectively). The NW-W interfacial areas measured with the two-phase flow method compare well to values measured using the standard IPTT method. PMID:28959079

Deriving Global Discharge Records from SWOT Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, M.; Fisher, C. K.; Wood, E. F.

2017-12-01

River flows are poorly monitored in many regions of the world, hindering our ability to accurately estimate water global water usage, and thus estimate global water and energy budgets or the variability in the global water cycle. Recent developments in satellite remote sensing, such as water surface elevations from radar altimetry or surface water extents from visible/infrared imagery, aim to fill this void; however, the streamflow estimates derived from these are inherently intermittent in both space and time. There is then a need for new methods that are able to derive spatially and temporally continuous records of discharge from the many available data sources. One particular application of this will be the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, which is designed to provide global observations of water surface elevation and slope from which river discharge can be estimated. Within the 21-day repeat cycle, a river reach will be observed 2-4 times on average. Due to the relationship between the basin orientation and the orbit, these observations are not evenly distributed in time or space. In this study, we investigate how SWOT will observe global river basins and how the temporal and spatial sampling impacts our ability to reconstruct discharge records.River flows can be estimated throughout a basin by assimilating SWOT observations using the Inverse Streamflow Routing (ISR) model of Pan and Wood [2013]. This method is applied to 32 global basins with different geometries and crossing patterns for the future orbit, assimilating theoretical SWOT-retrieved "gauges". Results show that the model is able to reconstruct basin-wide discharge from SWOT observations alone; however, the performance varies significantly across basins and is driven by the orientation, flow distance, and travel time in each, as well as the sensitivity of the reconstruction method to errors in the satellite retrieval. These properties are combined to estimate the "observability" of each basin. We then apply this metric globally and relate it to the discharge reconstruction performance to gain a better understanding of the impact that spatially and temporally sparse observations, such as those from SWOT, may have in basins with limited in-situ observations. Pan, M; Wood, E F 2013 Inverse streamflow routing, HESS 17(11):4577-4588

A Cost Benefit Analysis of an Active Travel Intervention with Health and Carbon Emission Reduction Benefits.

PubMed

Chapman, Ralph; Keall, Michael; Howden-Chapman, Philippa; Grams, Mark; Witten, Karen; Randal, Edward; Woodward, Alistair

2018-05-11

Active travel (walking and cycling) is beneficial for people’s health and has many co-benefits, such as reducing motor vehicle congestion and pollution in urban areas. There have been few robust evaluations of active travel, and very few studies have valued health and emissions outcomes. The ACTIVE before-and-after quasi-experimental study estimated the net benefits of health and other outcomes from New Zealand’s Model Communities Programme using an empirical analysis comparing two intervention cities with two control cities. The Programme funded investment in cycle paths, other walking and cycling facilities, cycle parking, ‘shared spaces’, media campaigns and events, such as ‘Share the Road’, and cycle-skills training. Using the modified Integrated Transport and Health Impacts Model, the Programme’s net economic benefits were estimated from the changes in use of active travel modes. Annual benefits for health in the intervention cities were estimated at 34.4 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and two lives saved due to reductions in cardiac disease, diabetes, cancer, and respiratory disease. Reductions in transport-related carbon emissions were also estimated and valued. Using a discount rate of 3.5%, the estimated benefit/cost ratio was 11:1 and was robust to sensitivity testing. It is concluded that when concerted investment is made in active travel in a city, there is likely to be a measurable, positive return on investment.

A Cost Benefit Analysis of an Active Travel Intervention with Health and Carbon Emission Reduction Benefits

PubMed Central

Grams, Mark; Witten, Karen; Woodward, Alistair

2018-01-01

Active travel (walking and cycling) is beneficial for people’s health and has many co-benefits, such as reducing motor vehicle congestion and pollution in urban areas. There have been few robust evaluations of active travel, and very few studies have valued health and emissions outcomes. The ACTIVE before-and-after quasi-experimental study estimated the net benefits of health and other outcomes from New Zealand’s Model Communities Programme using an empirical analysis comparing two intervention cities with two control cities. The Programme funded investment in cycle paths, other walking and cycling facilities, cycle parking, ‘shared spaces’, media campaigns and events, such as ‘Share the Road’, and cycle-skills training. Using the modified Integrated Transport and Health Impacts Model, the Programme’s net economic benefits were estimated from the changes in use of active travel modes. Annual benefits for health in the intervention cities were estimated at 34.4 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and two lives saved due to reductions in cardiac disease, diabetes, cancer, and respiratory disease. Reductions in transport-related carbon emissions were also estimated and valued. Using a discount rate of 3.5%, the estimated benefit/cost ratio was 11:1 and was robust to sensitivity testing. It is concluded that when concerted investment is made in active travel in a city, there is likely to be a measurable, positive return on investment. PMID:29751618

Use of an anaerobic sequencing batch reactor for parameter estimation in modelling of anaerobic digestion.

PubMed

Batstone, D J; Torrijos, M; Ruiz, C; Schmidt, J E

2004-01-01

The model structure in anaerobic digestion has been clarified following publication of the IWA Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1 (ADM1). However, parameter values are not well known, and uncertainty and variability in the parameter values given is almost unknown. Additionally, platforms for identification of parameters, namely continuous-flow laboratory digesters, and batch tests suffer from disadvantages such as long run times, and difficulty in defining initial conditions, respectively. Anaerobic sequencing batch reactors (ASBRs) are sequenced into fill-react-settle-decant phases, and offer promising possibilities for estimation of parameters, as they are by nature, dynamic in behaviour, and allow repeatable behaviour to establish initial conditions, and evaluate parameters. In this study, we estimated parameters describing winery wastewater (most COD as ethanol) degradation using data from sequencing operation, and validated these parameters using unsequenced pulses of ethanol and acetate. The model used was the ADM1, with an extension for ethanol degradation. Parameter confidence spaces were found by non-linear, correlated analysis of the two main Monod parameters; maximum uptake rate (k(m)), and half saturation concentration (K(S)). These parameters could be estimated together using only the measured acetate concentration (20 points per cycle). From interpolating the single cycle acetate data to multiple cycles, we estimate that a practical "optimal" identifiability could be achieved after two cycles for the acetate parameters, and three cycles for the ethanol parameters. The parameters found performed well in the short term, and represented the pulses of acetate and ethanol (within 4 days of the winery-fed cycles) very well. The main discrepancy was poor prediction of pH dynamics, which could be due to an unidentified buffer with an overall influence the same as a weak base (possibly CaCO3). Based on this work, ASBR systems are effective for parameter estimation, especially for comparative wastewater characterisation. The main disadvantages are heavy computational requirements for multiple cycles, and difficulty in establishing the correct biomass concentration in the reactor, though the last is also a disadvantage for continuous fixed film reactors, and especially, batch tests.

Modeling new production in upwelling centers - A case study of modeling new production from remotely sensed temperature and color

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dugdale, Richard C.; Wilkerson, Frances P.; Morel, Andre; Bricaud, Annick

1989-01-01

A method has been developed for estimating new production in upwelling systems from remotely sensed surface temperatures. A shift-up model predicts the rate of adaptation of nitrate uptake. The time base for the production cycle is obtained from a knowledge of surface heating rates and differences in temperature between the point of upwelling and each pixel. Nitrate concentrations are obtained from temperature-nitrate regression equations. The model was developed for the northwest Africa upwelling region, where shipboard measurements of new production were available. It can be employed in two modes, the first using only surface temperatures, and the second in which CZCS color data are incorporated. The major advance offered by this method is the capability to estimate new production on spatial and time scales inaccessible with shipboard approaches.

[Medium-term forecast of solar cosmic rays radiation risk during a manned Mars mission].

PubMed

Petrov, V M; Vlasov, A G

2006-01-01

Medium-term forecasting radiation hazard from solar cosmic rays will be vital in a manned Mars mission. Modern methods of space physics lack acceptable reliability in medium-term forecasting the SCR onset and parameters. The proposed estimation of average radiation risk from SCR during the manned Mars mission is made with the use of existing SCR fluence and spectrum models and correlation of solar particle event frequency with predicted Wolf number. Radiation risk is considered an additional death probability from acute radiation reactions (ergonomic component) or acute radial disease in flight. The algorithm for radiation risk calculation is described and resulted risk levels for various periods of the 23-th solar cycle are presented. Applicability of this method to advance forecasting and possible improvements are being investigated. Recommendations to the crew based on risk estimation are exemplified.

Optimal input shaping for Fisher identifiability of control-oriented lithium-ion battery models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rothenberger, Michael J.

This dissertation examines the fundamental challenge of optimally shaping input trajectories to maximize parameter identifiability of control-oriented lithium-ion battery models. Identifiability is a property from information theory that determines the solvability of parameter estimation for mathematical models using input-output measurements. This dissertation creates a framework that exploits the Fisher information metric to quantify the level of battery parameter identifiability, optimizes this metric through input shaping, and facilitates faster and more accurate estimation. The popularity of lithium-ion batteries is growing significantly in the energy storage domain, especially for stationary and transportation applications. While these cells have excellent power and energy densities, they are plagued with safety and lifespan concerns. These concerns are often resolved in the industry through conservative current and voltage operating limits, which reduce the overall performance and still lack robustness in detecting catastrophic failure modes. New advances in automotive battery management systems mitigate these challenges through the incorporation of model-based control to increase performance, safety, and lifespan. To achieve these goals, model-based control requires accurate parameterization of the battery model. While many groups in the literature study a variety of methods to perform battery parameter estimation, a fundamental issue of poor parameter identifiability remains apparent for lithium-ion battery models. This fundamental challenge of battery identifiability is studied extensively in the literature, and some groups are even approaching the problem of improving the ability to estimate the model parameters. The first approach is to add additional sensors to the battery to gain more information that is used for estimation. The other main approach is to shape the input trajectories to increase the amount of information that can be gained from input-output measurements, and is the approach used in this dissertation. Research in the literature studies optimal current input shaping for high-order electrochemical battery models and focuses on offline laboratory cycling. While this body of research highlights improvements in identifiability through optimal input shaping, each optimal input is a function of nominal parameters, which creates a tautology. The parameter values must be known a priori to determine the optimal input for maximizing estimation speed and accuracy. The system identification literature presents multiple studies containing methods that avoid the challenges of this tautology, but these methods are absent from the battery parameter estimation domain. The gaps in the above literature are addressed in this dissertation through the following five novel and unique contributions. First, this dissertation optimizes the parameter identifiability of a thermal battery model, which Sergio Mendoza experimentally validates through a close collaboration with this dissertation's author. Second, this dissertation extends input-shaping optimization to a linear and nonlinear equivalent-circuit battery model and illustrates the substantial improvements in Fisher identifiability for a periodic optimal signal when compared against automotive benchmark cycles. Third, this dissertation presents an experimental validation study of the simulation work in the previous contribution. The estimation study shows that the automotive benchmark cycles either converge slower than the optimized cycle, or not at all for certain parameters. Fourth, this dissertation examines how automotive battery packs with additional power electronic components that dynamically route current to individual cells/modules can be used for parameter identifiability optimization. While the user and vehicle supervisory controller dictate the current demand for these packs, the optimized internal allocation of current still improves identifiability. Finally, this dissertation presents a robust Bayesian sequential input shaping optimization study to maximize the conditional Fisher information of the battery model parameters without prior knowledge of the nominal parameter set. This iterative algorithm only requires knowledge of the prior parameter distributions to converge to the optimal input trajectory.

Geospatial analysis of cyclist injury trends: an investigation in Melbourne, Australia.

PubMed

Lawrence, Brendan M; Stevenson, Mark R; Oxley, Jennifer A; Logan, David B

2015-01-01

This study applied geospatial analysis to explore spatial trends in cycling-related injury in Melbourne, Australia, in order to identify an area where injury density was reducing against expectation. The crash characteristics and cycling environment of the identified area were examined to better understand factors related to cycling safety. Two methods were used to examine spatial trends in cycling-related injury. Firstly, cycling injury density was calculated using a kernel density estimation method for the years 2000 to 2011. This was used to examine patterns in injury density across Melbourne over an extended time period. Secondly, absolute change in injury density was calculated between 2005 and 2011. From this, a geographical area presenting a reduced injury density was selected for a case study, and crash characteristics of the area were obtained for the observational period. This led to discussion on which changes to the cycling environment, if any, may be associated with the reduced injury rate. Injury density in Melbourne had been progressively increasing between 2000 and 2011, with a nearly 3-fold increase in the peak injury density over that period. Decreases were observed in some locations between 2005 and 2011, and a geographical area to the southeast of Melbourne experienced a more significant decrease than others. This appeared to be associated with a combination of behavior and road infrastructure change, although a lack of data to verify change in cycling exposure prevented more definitive associations from being established. The apparent positive response of the injury rate to behavior and road infrastructure interventions is promising, yet the injury rate is unlikely to achieve the government's road safety target of 30% reduction in serious injuries by 2022. Moreover, the number of injuries sustained at the most common crash location appears to be increasing. Further research is necessary to discern which specific features of the urban road infrastructure have an effect on the risk of injury to a cyclist and which combination of features is consistent with a safe cycling environment.

Review of hardware cost estimation methods, models and tools applied to early phases of space mission planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trivailo, O.; Sippel, M.; Şekercioğlu, Y. A.

2012-08-01

The primary purpose of this paper is to review currently existing cost estimation methods, models, tools and resources applicable to the space sector. While key space sector methods are outlined, a specific focus is placed on hardware cost estimation on a system level, particularly for early mission phases during which specifications and requirements are not yet crystallised, and information is limited. For the space industry, cost engineering within the systems engineering framework is an integral discipline. The cost of any space program now constitutes a stringent design criterion, which must be considered and carefully controlled during the entire program life cycle. A first step to any program budget is a representative cost estimate which usually hinges on a particular estimation approach, or methodology. Therefore appropriate selection of specific cost models, methods and tools is paramount, a difficult task given the highly variable nature, scope as well as scientific and technical requirements applicable to each program. Numerous methods, models and tools exist. However new ways are needed to address very early, pre-Phase 0 cost estimation during the initial program research and establishment phase when system specifications are limited, but the available research budget needs to be established and defined. Due to their specificity, for vehicles such as reusable launchers with a manned capability, a lack of historical data implies that using either the classic heuristic approach such as parametric cost estimation based on underlying CERs, or the analogy approach, is therefore, by definition, limited. This review identifies prominent cost estimation models applied to the space sector, and their underlying cost driving parameters and factors. Strengths, weaknesses, and suitability to specific mission types and classes are also highlighted. Current approaches which strategically amalgamate various cost estimation strategies both for formulation and validation of an estimate, and techniques and/or methods to attain representative and justifiable cost estimates are consequently discussed. Ultimately, the aim of the paper is to establish a baseline for development of a non-commercial, low cost, transparent cost estimation methodology to be applied during very early program research phases at a complete vehicle system level, for largely unprecedented manned launch vehicles in the future. This paper takes the first step to achieving this through the identification, analysis and understanding of established, existing techniques, models, tools and resources relevant within the space sector.

Evaluation of the environmental impact of Brownfield remediation options: comparison of two life cycle assessment-based evaluation tools.

PubMed

Cappuyns, Valérie; Kessen, Bram

2012-01-01

The choice between different options for the remediation of a contaminated site traditionally relies on economical, technical and regulatory criteria without consideration of the environmental impact of the soil remediation process itself. In the present study, the environmental impact assessment of two potential soil remediation techniques (excavation and off-site cleaning and in situ steam extraction) was performed using two life cycle assessment (LCA)-based evaluation tools, namely the REC (risk reduction, environmental merit and cost) method and the ReCiPe method. The comparison and evaluation of the different tools used to estimate the environmental impact of Brownfield remediation was based on a case study which consisted of the remediation of a former oil and fat processing plant. For the environmental impact assessment, both the REC and ReCiPe methods result in a single score for the environmental impact of the soil remediation process and allow the same conclusion to be drawn: excavation and off-site cleaning has a more pronounced environmental impact than in situ soil remediation by means of steam extraction. The ReCiPe method takes into account more impact categories, but is also more complex to work with and needs more input data. Within the routine evaluation of soil remediation alternatives, a detailed LCA evaluation will often be too time consuming and costly and the estimation of the environmental impact with the REC method will in most cases be sufficient. The case study worked out in this paper wants to provide a basis for a more sounded selection of soil remediation technologies based on a more detailed assessment of the secondary impact of soil remediation.

Estimation of oxygen consumption during cycling and rowing.

PubMed

Baig, Dur-e-Zehra; Savkin, Andrey V; Celler, Branko G

2012-01-01

The aim of this paper is to develop estimator that can predict oxygen consumption (V(O2)) during cycling and rowing exercises, by using non-invasive and easily measurable quantities such as heart rate (HR), respiratory rate (RespR) and frequency of exercising activity. The frequency of exercise is quantified as a universal measure of exercise intensity and is known as Exercise Rate (ER). This ER is responsible for deviation in V(O2) (ΔV(O2)), HR (ΔHR), and RespR (ΔRespR) from their respective baseline measurements during exercise. Therefore, ΔV(O2) can be estimated from Δ, ΔRespR and ER. The resting measured of V(O2) is referred as V(O(2rest)); this is computed from the physical fitness of an individual. The Hammerstein model is adopted for the estimation of ΔV(O2). Results in this study demonstrate that the developed estimators for each type of exercise are capable of estimating V(O2) by adding up V(O(2rest)) and ΔV(O2) at various intensities during cycling and rowing.

The effect of sterilization and number of use on the accuracy of friction-style mechanical torque limiting devices for dental implants

PubMed Central

Fayaz, Ali; Mahshid, Minoo; Saboury, Aboulfazl; Sadr, Seyed Jalil; Ansari, Ghassem

2014-01-01

Background: Mechanical torque limiting devices (MTLDs) are necessary tools to control a peak torque and achieving target values of screw component of dental implants. Due to probable effect of autoclaving and number of use on the accuracy of these devices, this study aimed to evaluate the effect of sterilization and number of use on the accuracy of friction-style mechanical torque limiting devices (F-S MTLDs) in achieving their target torque values. Materials and Methods: Peak torque measurements of 15 new F-S MTLDs from three different manufacturers (Astra Tech, BioHorizons, Dr. Idhe) were measured ten times before and after 100 steam sterilization using a digital torque gauge. To simulate the clinical situation of aging (number of use) target torque application process was repeated 10 times after each sterilization cycle and the peak torque values were registered. Comparison of the mean differences with target torque in each cycle was performed using one sample t test. Considering the type of MTLDs as inter subject comparison, One-way repeated measure ANOVA was used to evaluate the absolute values of differences between devices of each manufacturer in each group (α = 0.05). Results: The results of this study in Dr. Idhe group showed that, mean of difference values significantly differed from the target torque (P = 0.002) until 75 cycles. In Astra Tech group, also mean of difference values with under estimation trend, showed a significant difference with the target torque (P < 0.001). Mean of difference values significantly differed from the target torque with under estimation trend during all the 100 cycles in BioHorizons group (P < 0.05). Conclusion: The torque output of each individual device stayed in 10% difference from target torque values before 100 sterilization cycles, but more than 10% difference from the target torque was seen in varying degrees during these consequent cycles. PMID:24688564

A supersonic fan equipped variable cycle engine for a Mach 2.7 supersonic transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tavares, T. S.

1985-01-01

The concept of a variable cycle turbofan engine with an axially supersonic fan stage as powerplant for a Mach 2.7 supersonic transport was evaluated. Quantitative cycle analysis was used to assess the effects of the fan inlet and blading efficiencies on engine performance. Thrust levels predicted by cycle analysis are shown to match the thrust requirements of a representative aircraft. Fan inlet geometry is discussed and it is shown that a fixed geometry conical spike will provide sufficient airflow throughout the operating regime. The supersonic fan considered consists of a single stage comprising a rotor and stator. The concept is similar in principle to a supersonic compressor, but differs by having a stator which removes swirl from the flow without producing a net rise in static pressure. Operating conditions peculiar to the axially supersonic fan are discussed. Geometry of rotor and stator cascades are presented which utilize a supersonic vortex flow distribution. Results of a 2-D CFD flow analysis of these cascades are presented. A simple estimate of passage losses was made using empirical methods.

Modeling Menstrual Cycle Length and Variability at the Approach of Menopause Using Hierarchical Change Point Models

PubMed Central

Huang, Xiaobi; Elliott, Michael R.; Harlow, Siobán D.

2013-01-01

SUMMARY As women approach menopause, the patterns of their menstrual cycle lengths change. To study these changes, we need to jointly model both the mean and variability of cycle length. Our proposed model incorporates separate mean and variance change points for each woman and a hierarchical model to link them together, along with regression components to include predictors of menopausal onset such as age at menarche and parity. Additional complexity arises from the fact that the calendar data have substantial missingness due to hormone use, surgery, and failure to report. We integrate multiple imputation and time-to event modeling in a Bayesian estimation framework to deal with different forms of the missingness. Posterior predictive model checks are applied to evaluate the model fit. Our method successfully models patterns of women’s menstrual cycle trajectories throughout their late reproductive life and identifies change points for mean and variability of segment length, providing insight into the menopausal process. More generally, our model points the way toward increasing use of joint mean-variance models to predict health outcomes and better understand disease processes. PMID:24729638

Estimate of colostral immunoglobulin G concentration using refractometry without or with caprylic acid fractionation.

PubMed

Morrill, K M; Conrad, E; Polo, J; Lago, A; Campbell, J; Quigley, J; Tyler, H

2012-07-01

Our objectives were to evaluate the use of refractometry as a means of estimating immunoglobulin G (IgG) concentration of bovine maternal colostrum (MC) and determine if fractionation of MC using caprylic acid (CA) improved estimates of IgG. Samples (n=85) of MC were collected from a single dairy in California and used to determine the method of CA fraction that produced the best prediction of IgG based on CA fractionation followed by refractometry. Subsequently, samples of MC (n=827) were collected from 67 farms in 12 states to compare refractometry with or without CA fractionation as methods to estimate IgG concentration. Samples were collected from the feeding pool and consisted of fresh (n=196), previously frozen (n=479), or refrigerated (n=152) MC. Samples were further classified by the number freeze-thaw cycles before analysis. Fractionation with CA was conducted by adding 1 mL of MC to a tube containing 75 μL of CA and 1 mL of 0.06 M acetic acid. The tube was shaken and allowed to react for 1 min. Refractive index of the IgG-rich supernatant (nDf) was determined using a digital refractometer. Whole, nonfractionated MC was analyzed for IgG by radial immunodiffusion (RID) and refractive index (nDw). The relationship between nDf and IgG (r=0.53; n=805) was weak, whereas that between nDw and IgG was stronger (r=0.73; n=823). Fresh samples analyzed by refractometry that subsequently went through 1 freeze-thaw cycle before RID analysis resulted in the strongest relationship between IgG and nDf or nDw (r=0.93 and 0.90, respectively). The MC samples collected fresh on the farm but frozen 2 or more times before analysis by refractometry or RID had low correlations between IgG and nDf and nDw (r=0.09 and 0.01). Samples refrigerated or frozen on the farm before analysis had weaker relationships between RID and nDf or nDw (r=0.38 to 0.80), regardless of the number of freeze-thaw cycles. Breed and lactation number did not affect the accuracy of either test. These results indicated that refractometry, without or with CA fractionation, was an accurate and rapid method to determine IgG concentration when samples of MC were not previously stored before refractometry and frozen only once before RID analysis. Copyright © 2012 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Observed and Projected Changes to the Precipitation Annual Cycle

DOE PAGES

Marvel, Kate; Biasutti, Michela; Bonfils, Celine; ...

2017-06-08

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to cause spatial and temporal shifts in precipitation patterns. These may be apparent in changes to the annual cycle of zonal mean precipitation P. Trends in the amplitude and phase of the P annual cycle in two long-term, global satellite datasets are broadly similar. Model-derived fingerprints of externally forced changes to the amplitude and phase of the P seasonal cycle, combined with these observations, enable a formal detection and attribution analysis. Observed amplitude changes are inconsistent with model estimates of internal variability but not attributable to the model-predicted response to external forcing. This mismatch betweenmore » observed and predicted amplitude changes is consistent with the sustained La Niña–like conditions that characterize the recent slowdown in the rise of the global mean temperature. However, observed changes to the annual cycle phase do not seem to be driven by this recent hiatus. Furthermore these changes are consistent with model estimates of forced changes, are inconsistent (in one observational dataset) with estimates of internal variability, and may suggest the emergence of an externally forced signal.« less

Estimating the boundaries of a limit cycle in a 2D dynamical system using renormalization group

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutta, Ayan; Das, Debapriya; Banerjee, Dhruba; Bhattacharjee, Jayanta K.

2018-04-01

While the plausibility of formation of limit cycle has been a well studied topic in context of the Poincare-Bendixson theorem, studies on estimates in regard to the possible size and shape of the limit cycle seem to be scanty in the literature. In this paper we present a pedagogical study of some aspects of the size of this limit cycle using perturbative renormalization group by doing detailed and explicit calculations upto second order for the Selkov model for glycolytic oscillations. This famous model is well known to lead to a limit cycle for certain ranges of values of the parameters involved in the problem. Within the tenets of the approximations made, reasonable agreement with the numerical plots can be achieved.

A Comparison of Single-Cycle Versus Multiple-Cycle Proof Testing Strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McClung, R. C.; Chell, G. G.; Millwater, H. R.; Russell, D. A.; Millwater, H. R.

1999-01-01

Single-cycle and multiple-cycle proof testing (SCPT and MCPT) strategies for reusable aerospace propulsion system components are critically evaluated and compared from a rigorous elastic-plastic fracture mechanics perspective. Earlier MCPT studies are briefly reviewed. New J-integral estimation methods for semielliptical surface cracks and cracks at notches are derived and validated. Engineering methods are developed to characterize crack growth rates during elastic-plastic fatigue crack growth (FCG) and the tear-fatigue interaction near instability. Surface crack growth experiments are conducted with Inconel 718 to characterize tearing resistance, FCG under small-scale yielding and elastic-plastic conditions, and crack growth during simulated MCPT. Fractography and acoustic emission studies provide additional insight. The relative merits of SCPT and MCPT are directly compared using a probabilistic analysis linked with an elastic-plastic crack growth computer code. The conditional probability of failure in service is computed for a population of components that have survived a previous proof test, based on an assumed distribution of initial crack depths. Parameter studies investigate the influence of proof factor, tearing resistance, crack shape, initial crack depth distribution, and notches on the MCPT versus SCPT comparison. The parameter studies provide a rational basis to formulate conclusions about the relative advantages and disadvantages of SCPT and MCPT. Practical engineering guidelines are proposed to help select the optimum proof test protocol in a given application.

A Comparison of Single-Cycle Versus Multiple-Cycle Proof Testing Strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McClung, R. C.; Chell, G. G.; Millwater, H. R.; Russell, D. A.; Orient, G. E.

1996-01-01

Single-cycle and multiple-cycle proof testing (SCPT and MCPT) strategies for reusable aerospace propulsion system components are critically evaluated and compared from a rigorous elastic-plastic fracture mechanics perspective. Earlier MCPT studies are briefly reviewed. New J-integral estimation methods for semi-elliptical surface cracks and cracks at notches are derived and validated. Engineering methods are developed to characterize crack growth rates during elastic-plastic fatigue crack growth (FCG) and the tear-fatigue interaction near instability. Surface crack growth experiments are conducted with Inconel 718 to characterize tearing resistance, FCG under small-scale yielding and elastic-plastic conditions, and crack growth during simulated MCPT. Fractography and acoustic emission studies provide additional insight. The relative merits of SCPT and MCPT are directly compared using a probabilistic analysis linked with an elastic-plastic crack growth computer code. The conditional probability of failure in service is computed for a population of components that have survived a previous proof test, based on an assumed distribution of initial crack depths. Parameter studies investigate the influence of proof factor, tearing resistance, crack shape, initial crack depth distribution, and notches on the MCPT vs. SCPT comparison. The parameter studies provide a rational basis to formulate conclusions about the relative advantages and disadvantages of SCPT and MCPT. Practical engineering guidelines are proposed to help select the optimum proof test protocol in a given application.

Data-optimized source modeling with the Backwards Liouville Test–Kinetic method

DOE PAGES

Woodroffe, J. R.; Brito, T. V.; Jordanova, V. K.; ...

2017-09-14

In the standard practice of neutron multiplicity counting , the first three sampled factorial moments of the event triggered neutron count distribution were used to quantify the three main neutron source terms: the spontaneous fissile material effective mass, the relative (α,n) production and the induced fission source responsible for multiplication. Our study compares three methods to quantify the statistical uncertainty of the estimated mass: the bootstrap method, propagation of variance through moments, and statistical analysis of cycle data method. Each of the three methods was implemented on a set of four different NMC measurements, held at the JRC-laboratory in Ispra,more » Italy, sampling four different Pu samples in a standard Plutonium Scrap Multiplicity Counter (PSMC) well counter.« less

Human-landing rate, gonotrophic cycle length, survivorship, and public health importance of Simulium erythrocephalum in Zaragoza, northeastern Spain.

PubMed

Ruiz-Arrondo, Ignacio; Garza-Hernández, Javier A; Reyes-Villanueva, Filiberto; Lucientes-Curdi, Javier; Rodríguez-Pérez, Mario A

2017-04-08

Simulium (Boophthora) erythrocephalum (De Geer, 1776) is one of the blackfly species responsible for major public health problems in Europe. Blackfly outbreaks of this species are becoming more frequent, threatening public health in Spain. In the present study, bionomic parameters of S. erythrocephalum in northeastern Spain were estimated. Simulium erythrocephalum was collected from May through June 2015 in Zaragoza, Spain, using the human-landing-collection (HLC) method. Daily pattern of total and parous landing activity was estimated, as was the gonotrophic cycle (GC) length and survivorship (S) rate, using time series analysis. Host-seeking females of S. erythrocephalum showed a bimodal human-landing activity pattern, with a minor and major peak at dawn and dusk, respectively; there was a significant negative association between human daily landing rate and temperature (P = 0.003) and solar radiation (P < 0.001). Overall, a daily landing rate (DLR) of 34 lands/person/day was estimated. Series of sequential data analysis on parity showed the highest significant (P < 0.001) correlation indices (r = 0.45 and r = 0.39 for raw and filtered data) for a 2-day time lag, indicating that the GC length corresponded to 2 days. Daily survivorship and parity rate were 0.85 and 0.72, respectively. Simulium erythrocephalum was confirmed as a nuisance species in Zaragoza, using the HLC method for the first time in Spain. The data offer insights into the ecology of S. erythrocephalum, which can improve management strategies of this pest in Spain.

Health impact modelling of active travel visions for England and Wales using an Integrated Transport and Health Impact Modelling Tool (ITHIM).

PubMed

Woodcock, James; Givoni, Moshe; Morgan, Andrei Scott

2013-01-01

Achieving health benefits while reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transport offers a potential policy win-win; the magnitude of potential benefits, however, is likely to vary. This study uses an Integrated Transport and Health Impact Modelling tool (ITHIM) to evaluate the health and environmental impacts of high walking and cycling transport scenarios for English and Welsh urban areas outside London. Three scenarios with increased walking and cycling and lower car use were generated based upon the Visions 2030 Walking and Cycling project. Changes to carbon dioxide emissions were estimated by environmental modelling. Health impact assessment modelling was used to estimate changes in Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) resulting from changes in exposure to air pollution, road traffic injury risk, and physical activity. We compare the findings of the model with results generated using the World Health Organization's Health Economic Assessment of Transport (HEAT) tools. This study found considerable reductions in disease burden under all three scenarios, with the largest health benefits attributed to reductions in ischemic heart disease. The pathways that produced the largest benefits were, in order, physical activity, road traffic injuries, and air pollution. The choice of dose response relationship for physical activity had a large impact on the size of the benefits. Modelling the impact on all-cause mortality rather than through individual diseases suggested larger benefits. Using the best available evidence we found fewer road traffic injuries for all scenarios compared with baseline but alternative assumptions suggested potential increases. Methods to estimate the health impacts from transport related physical activity and injury risk are in their infancy; this study has demonstrated an integration of transport and health impact modelling approaches. The findings add to the case for a move from car transport to walking and cycling, and have implications for empirical and modelling research.

An Examination of Selected Geomagnetic Indices in Relation to the Sunspot Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

2006-01-01

Previous studies have shown geomagnetic indices to be useful for providing early estimates for the size of the following sunspot cycle several years in advance. Examined this study are various precursor methods for predicting the minimum and maximum amplitude of the following sunspot cycle, these precursors based on the aa and Ap geomagnetic indices and the number of disturbed days (NDD), days when the daily Ap index equaled or exceeded 25. Also examined is the yearly peak of the daily Ap index (Apmax), the number of days when Ap greater than or equal to 100, cyclic averages of sunspot number R, aa, Ap, NDD, and the number of sudden storm commencements (NSSC), as well the cyclic sums of NDD and NSSC. The analysis yields 90-percent prediction intervals for both the minimum and maximum amplitudes for cycle 24, the next sunspot cycle. In terms of yearly averages, the best regressions give Rmin = 9.8+/-2.9 and Rmax = 153.8+/-24.7, equivalent to Rm = 8.8+/-2.8 and RM = 159+/-5.5, based on the 12-mo moving average (or smoothed monthly mean sunspot number). Hence, cycle 24 is expected to be above average in size, similar to cycles 21 and 22, producing more than 300 sudden storm commencements and more than 560 disturbed days, of which about 25 will be Ap greater than or equal to 100. On the basis of annual averages, the sunspot minimum year for cycle 24 will be either 2006 or 2007.

Study of a LH2-fueled topping cycle engine for aircraft propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turney, G. E.; Fishbach, L. H.

1983-01-01

An analytical investigation was made of a topping cycle aircraft engine system which uses a cryogenic fuel. This system consists of a main turboshaft engine which is mechanically coupled (by cross-shafting) to a topping loop which augments the shaft power output of the system. The thermodynamic performance of the topping cycle engine was analyzed and compared with that of a reference (conventional-type) turboshaft engine. For the cycle operating conditions selected, the performance of the topping cycle engine in terms of brake specific fuel consumption (bsfc) was determined to be about 12 percent better than that of the reference turboshaft engine. Engine weights were estimated for both the topping cycle engine and the reference turboshaft engine. These estimates were based on a common shaft power output for each engine. Results indicate that the weight of the topping cycle engine is comparable to that of the reference turboshaft engine. Previously announced in STAR as N83-34942

Analysis of free breathing motion using artifact reduced 4D CT image data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehrhardt, Jan; Werner, Rene; Frenzel, Thorsten; Lu, Wei; Low, Daniel; Handels, Heinz

2007-03-01

The mobility of lung tumors during the respiratory cycle is a source of error in radiotherapy treatment planning. Spatiotemporal CT data sets can be used for studying the motion of lung tumors and inner organs during the breathing cycle. We present methods for the analysis of respiratory motion using 4D CT data in high temporal resolution. An optical flow based reconstruction method was used to generate artifact-reduced 4D CT data sets of lung cancer patients. The reconstructed 4D CT data sets were segmented and the respiratory motion of tumors and inner organs was analyzed. A non-linear registration algorithm is used to calculate the velocity field between consecutive time frames of the 4D data. The resulting velocity field is used to analyze trajectories of landmarks and surface points. By this technique, the maximum displacement of any surface point is calculated, and regions with large respiratory motion are marked. To describe the tumor mobility the motion of the lung tumor center in three orthogonal directions is displayed. Estimated 3D appearance probabilities visualize the movement of the tumor during the respiratory cycle in one static image. Furthermore, correlations between trajectories of the skin surface and the trajectory of the tumor center are determined and skin regions are identified which are suitable for prediction of the internal tumor motion. The results of the motion analysis indicate that the described methods are suitable to gain insight into the spatiotemporal behavior of anatomical and pathological structures during the respiratory cycle.

How Often Does Deliberate Self-Harm Occur Relative to Each Suicide? A Study of Variations by Gender and Age

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hawton, Keith; Harriss, Louise

2008-01-01

Deliberate self-harm (DSH; i.e., nonfatal self-poisoning or self-injury) occurs much more frequently than suicide, yet there has been little detailed investigation of the comparative rates of DSH and suicide. We conducted a study of how rates of DSH relate to suicide rates across the life cycle by gender and by method of estimation of DSH rates,…

In vivo lateral blood flow velocity measurement using speckle size estimation.

PubMed

Xu, Tiantian; Hozan, Mohsen; Bashford, Gregory R

2014-05-01

In previous studies, we proposed blood measurement using speckle size estimation, which estimates the lateral component of blood flow within a single image frame based on the observation that the speckle pattern corresponding to blood reflectors (typically red blood cells) stretches (i.e., is "smeared") if blood flow is in the same direction as the electronically controlled transducer line selection in a 2-D image. In this observational study, the clinical viability of ultrasound blood flow velocity measurement using speckle size estimation was investigated and compared with that of conventional spectral Doppler of carotid artery blood flow data collected from human patients in vivo. Ten patients (six male, four female) were recruited. Right carotid artery blood flow data were collected in an interleaved fashion (alternating Doppler and B-mode A-lines) with an Antares Ultrasound Imaging System and transferred to a PC via the Axius Ultrasound Research Interface. The scanning velocity was 77 cm/s, and a 4-s interval of flow data were collected from each subject to cover three to five complete cardiac cycles. Conventional spectral Doppler data were collected simultaneously to compare with estimates made by speckle size estimation. The results indicate that the peak systolic velocities measured with the two methods are comparable (within ±10%) if the scan velocity is greater than or equal to the flow velocity. When scan velocity is slower than peak systolic velocity, the speckle stretch method asymptotes to the scan velocity. Thus, the speckle stretch method is able to accurately measure pure lateral flow, which conventional Doppler cannot do. In addition, an initial comparison of the speckle size estimation and color Doppler methods with respect to computational complexity and data acquisition time indicated potential time savings in blood flow velocity estimation using speckle size estimation. Further studies are needed for calculation of the speckle stretch method across a field of view and combination with an appropriate axial flow estimator. Copyright © 2014 World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine & Biology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

3-D Vector Flow Estimation With Row-Column-Addressed Arrays.

PubMed

Holbek, Simon; Christiansen, Thomas Lehrmann; Stuart, Matthias Bo; Beers, Christopher; Thomsen, Erik Vilain; Jensen, Jorgen Arendt

2016-11-01

Simulation and experimental results from 3-D vector flow estimations for a 62 + 62 2-D row-column (RC) array with integrated apodization are presented. A method for implementing a 3-D transverse oscillation (TO) velocity estimator on a 3-MHz RC array is developed and validated. First, a parametric simulation study is conducted, where flow direction, ensemble length, number of pulse cycles, steering angles, transmit/receive apodization, and TO apodization profiles and spacing are varied, to find the optimal parameter configuration. The performance of the estimator is evaluated with respect to relative mean bias ~B and mean standard deviation ~σ . Second, the optimal parameter configuration is implemented on the prototype RC probe connected to the experimental ultrasound scanner SARUS. Results from measurements conducted in a flow-rig system containing a constant laminar flow and a straight-vessel phantom with a pulsating flow are presented. Both an M-mode and a steered transmit sequence are applied. The 3-D vector flow is estimated in the flow rig for four representative flow directions. In the setup with 90° beam-to-flow angle, the relative mean bias across the entire velocity profile is (-4.7, -0.9, 0.4)% with a relative standard deviation of (8.7, 5.1, 0.8)% for ( v x , v y , v z ). The estimated peak velocity is 48.5 ± 3 cm/s giving a -3% bias. The out-of-plane velocity component perpendicular to the cross section is used to estimate volumetric flow rates in the flow rig at a 90° beam-to-flow angle. The estimated mean flow rate in this setup is 91.2 ± 3.1 L/h corresponding to a bias of -11.1%. In a pulsating flow setup, flow rate measured during five cycles is 2.3 ± 0.1 mL/stroke giving a negative 9.7% bias. It is concluded that accurate 3-D vector flow estimation can be obtained using a 2-D RC-addressed array.

Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Shuttle-Derived Launch Vehicles, Volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

The design, performance, and programmatic definition of shuttle derived launch vehicles (SDLV) established by two different contractors were assessed and the relative life cycle costs of space transportation systems using the shuttle alone were compared with costs for a mix of shuttles and SDLV's. The ground rules and assumptions used in the evaluation are summarized and the work breakdown structure is included. Approaches used in deriving SDLV costs, including calibration factors and historical data are described. Both SDLV cost estimates and SDLV/STS cost comparisons are summarized. Standard formats are used to report comprehensive SDLV life cycle estimates. Hardware cost estimates (below subsystem level) obtained using the RCA PRICE 84 cost model are included along with other supporting data.

Evaluation of the Effect of Surface Finish on High-Cycle Fatigue for SLM-IN718

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambert, Dennis M.

2016-01-01

A high-cycle fatigue (HCF) knockdown factor was estimated for Inconel 718, manufactured with the selective laser melt (SLM) process. This factor is the reduction at a common fatigue life from the maximum stress in fatigue for low-stress ground (LSG) specimens to the maximum stress of those left with the original surface condition. Various vendors provided specimens. To reduce the number of degrees-of-freedom, only one heat treat condition was evaluated. Testing temperatures included room temperature, 800F, 1000F, and 1200F. The two surface conditions were compared at constant lives, where data was available. The recommended knockdown factor of the as-built surface condition (average roughness of approximately 245 micro-inches/inch) versus low-stress ground condition (roughness <= 4 micro-inches/inch) is approximately 1/3 or 33%. This is to say that for the as-built surface condition, a maximum stress of 2/3 of the stress for LSG can be expected to produce the same life in the as built surface condition. As an alternative method, the surface finish was incorporated into a new parameter with the maximum stress. The new parameter was formulated to be similar to the fracture mechanics stress intensity factor, and it was named the pseudo stress intensity factor, Kp. Using Kp, the variance seemed acceptable across all sources, and the knockdown factor was estimated over the range of data identified by Kp where data occurred. A plot of the results suggests that the knockdown factor is a function of temperature, and that for low lives the knockdown is greater than the knockdown observed above about one million cycles, where it stabilizes. One data point at room temperature was clearly different, and the sparsity of data in the higher life region reduces the value of these results. The method does appear to provide useful results, and further characterization of the method is suggested.

Bayesian inference of nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics from aeroelastic limit cycle oscillations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandhu, Rimple; Poirel, Dominique; Pettit, Chris; Khalil, Mohammad; Sarkar, Abhijit

2016-07-01

A Bayesian model selection and parameter estimation algorithm is applied to investigate the influence of nonlinear and unsteady aerodynamic loads on the limit cycle oscillation (LCO) of a pitching airfoil in the transitional Reynolds number regime. At small angles of attack, laminar boundary layer trailing edge separation causes negative aerodynamic damping leading to the LCO. The fluid-structure interaction of the rigid, but elastically mounted, airfoil and nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics is represented by two coupled nonlinear stochastic ordinary differential equations containing uncertain parameters and model approximation errors. Several plausible aerodynamic models with increasing complexity are proposed to describe the aeroelastic system leading to LCO. The likelihood in the posterior parameter probability density function (pdf) is available semi-analytically using the extended Kalman filter for the state estimation of the coupled nonlinear structural and unsteady aerodynamic model. The posterior parameter pdf is sampled using a parallel and adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The posterior probability of each model is estimated using the Chib-Jeliazkov method that directly uses the posterior MCMC samples for evidence (marginal likelihood) computation. The Bayesian algorithm is validated through a numerical study and then applied to model the nonlinear unsteady aerodynamic loads using wind-tunnel test data at various Reynolds numbers.

Bayesian inference of nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics from aeroelastic limit cycle oscillations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sandhu, Rimple; Poirel, Dominique; Pettit, Chris

2016-07-01

A Bayesian model selection and parameter estimation algorithm is applied to investigate the influence of nonlinear and unsteady aerodynamic loads on the limit cycle oscillation (LCO) of a pitching airfoil in the transitional Reynolds number regime. At small angles of attack, laminar boundary layer trailing edge separation causes negative aerodynamic damping leading to the LCO. The fluid–structure interaction of the rigid, but elastically mounted, airfoil and nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics is represented by two coupled nonlinear stochastic ordinary differential equations containing uncertain parameters and model approximation errors. Several plausible aerodynamic models with increasing complexity are proposed to describe the aeroelastic systemmore » leading to LCO. The likelihood in the posterior parameter probability density function (pdf) is available semi-analytically using the extended Kalman filter for the state estimation of the coupled nonlinear structural and unsteady aerodynamic model. The posterior parameter pdf is sampled using a parallel and adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The posterior probability of each model is estimated using the Chib–Jeliazkov method that directly uses the posterior MCMC samples for evidence (marginal likelihood) computation. The Bayesian algorithm is validated through a numerical study and then applied to model the nonlinear unsteady aerodynamic loads using wind-tunnel test data at various Reynolds numbers.« less

The Relationship Between Relative Fundamental Frequency and a Kinematic Estimate of Laryngeal Stiffness in Healthy Adults

PubMed Central

Heller Murray, Elizabeth S.; Lien, Yu-An S.; Stepp, Cara E.

2016-01-01

Purpose This study examined the relationship between the acoustic measure relative fundamental frequency (RFF) and a kinematic estimate of laryngeal stiffness. Method Twelve healthy adults (mean age = 22.7 years, SD = 4.4; 10 women, 2 men) produced repetitions of /ifi/ while varying their vocal effort during simultaneous acoustic and video nasendoscopic recordings. RFF was determined from the last 10 voicing cycles before the voiceless obstruent (RFF offset) and the first 10 cycles of revoicing (RFF onset). A kinematic stiffness ratio was calculated for the vocal fold adductory gesture during revoicing by normalizing the maximum angular velocity by the maximum glottic angle during the voiceless obstruent. Results A linear mixed effect model indicated that RFF offset and onset were significant predictors of the kinematic stiffness ratios. The model accounted for 52% of the variance in the kinematic data. Individual relationships between RFF and kinematic stiffness ratios varied across participants, with at least moderate negative correlations in 83% of participants for RFF offset but only 40% of participants for RFF onset. Conclusions RFF significantly predicted kinematic estimates of laryngeal stiffness in healthy speakers and has the potential to be a useful clinical indicator of laryngeal tension. Further research is needed in individuals with voice disorders. PMID:27936279

Evaluating four gap-filling methods for eddy covariance measurements of evapotranspiration over hilly crop fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boudhina, Nissaf; Zitouna-Chebbi, Rim; Mekki, Insaf; Jacob, Frédéric; Ben Mechlia, Nétij; Masmoudi, Moncef; Prévot, Laurent

2018-06-01

Estimating evapotranspiration in hilly watersheds is paramount for managing water resources, especially in semiarid/subhumid regions. The eddy covariance (EC) technique allows continuous measurements of latent heat flux (LE). However, time series of EC measurements often experience large portions of missing data because of instrumental malfunctions or quality filtering. Existing gap-filling methods are questionable over hilly crop fields because of changes in airflow inclination and subsequent aerodynamic properties. We evaluated the performances of different gap-filling methods before and after tailoring to conditions of hilly crop fields. The tailoring consisted of splitting the LE time series beforehand on the basis of upslope and downslope winds. The experiment was setup within an agricultural hilly watershed in northeastern Tunisia. EC measurements were collected throughout the growth cycle of three wheat crops, two of them located in adjacent fields on opposite hillslopes, and the third one located in a flat field. We considered four gap-filling methods: the REddyProc method, the linear regression between LE and net radiation (Rn), the multi-linear regression of LE against the other energy fluxes, and the use of evaporative fraction (EF). Regardless of the method, the splitting of the LE time series did not impact the gap-filling rate, and it might improve the accuracies on LE retrievals in some cases. Regardless of the method, the obtained accuracies on LE estimates after gap filling were close to instrumental accuracies, and they were comparable to those reported in previous studies over flat and mountainous terrains. Overall, REddyProc was the most appropriate method, for both gap-filling rate and retrieval accuracy. Thus, it seems possible to conduct gap filling for LE time series collected over hilly crop fields, provided the LE time series are split beforehand on the basis of upslope-downslope winds. Future works should address consecutive vegetation growth cycles for a larger panel of conditions in terms of climate, vegetation, and water status.

Variability of basin-scale terrestrial water storage from a novel application of the water budget equation: the Amazon and the Mississippi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, J.; Zeng, N.; Mariotti, A.; Swenson, S.

2007-12-01

In an approach termed the P-E-R (or simply PER) method, we apply the basin water budget equation to diagnose the long-term variability of the total terrestrial water storage (TWS). The key input variables are observed precipitation (P) and runoff (R), and estimated evaporation (E). Unlike typical offline land-surface model estimate where only atmospheric variables are used as input, the direct use of observed runoff in the PER method imposes an important constraint on the diagnosed TWS. Although there lack basin-scale observations of evaporation, the tendency of E to have significantly less variability than the difference between precipitation and runoff (P-R) minimizes the uncertainties originating from estimated evaporation. Compared to the more traditional method using atmospheric moisture convergence (MC) minus R (MCR method), the use of observed precipitation in PER method is expected to lead to general improvement, especially in regions atmospheric radiosonde data are too sparse to constrain the atmospheric model analyzed MC such as in the remote tropics. TWS was diagnosed using the PER method for the Amazon (1970-2006) and the Mississippi Basin (1928-2006), and compared with MCR method, land-surface model and reanalyses, and NASA's GRACE satellite gravity data. The seasonal cycle of diagnosed TWS over the Amazon is about 300 mm. The interannual TWS variability in these two basins are 100-200 mm, but multi-dacadal changes can be as large as 600-800 mm. Major droughts such as the Dust Bowl period had large impact with water storage depleted by 500 mm over a decade. Within the short period 2003-2006 when GRACE data was available, PER and GRACE show good agreement both for seasonal cycle and interannual variability, providing potential to cross-validate each other. In contrast, land-surface model results are significantly smaller than PER and GRACE, especially towards longer timescales. While we currently lack independent means to verify these long-term changes, simple error analysis using 3 precipitation datasets and 3 evaporation estimates suggest that the multi-decadal amplitude can be uncertain up to a factor of 2, while the agreement is high on interannual timescales. The large TWS variability implies the remarkable capacity of land-surface in storing and taking up water that may be under-represented in models. The results also suggest the existence of water storage memories on multi-year time scales, significantly longer than typically assumed seasonal timescales associated with surface soil moisture.

Cycles till failure of silver-zinc cells with competing failure modes - Preliminary data analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sidik, S. M.; Leibecki, H. F.; Bozek, J. M.

1980-01-01

The data analysis of cycles to failure of silver-zinc electrochemical cells with competing failure modes is presented. The test ran 129 cells through charge-discharge cycles until failure; preliminary data analysis consisted of response surface estimate of life. Batteries fail through low voltage condition and an internal shorting condition; a competing failure modes analysis was made using maximum likelihood estimation for the extreme value life distribution. Extensive residual plotting and probability plotting were used to verify data quality and selection of model.

32 CFR Appendix to Part 162 - Reporting Procedures

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... generated. e. Projected Life-Cycle Savings. For each PIF project provide the estimated amount of savings the project is projected to earn over the project's economic life. f. Projected Life-Cycle Cost Avoidance. For... Projected Life-Cycle Savings. e. Total Projected Life-Cycle Cost Avoidance. 3. CSI. Each DoD Component that...

Characterization of pore structure in cement-based materials using pressurization-depressurization cycling mercury intrusion porosimetry (PDC-MIP)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou Jian, E-mail: Jian.Zhou@tudelft.n; Ye Guang, E-mail: g.ye@tudelft.n; Magnel Laboratory for Concrete Research, Department of Structural Engineering, Ghent University, Technologiepark-Zwijnaarde 904 B-9052, Ghent

2010-07-15

Numerous mercury intrusion porosimetry (MIP) studies have been carried out to investigate the pore structure in cement-based materials. However, the standard MIP often results in an underestimation of large pores and an overestimation of small pores because of its intrinsic limitation. In this paper, an innovative MIP method is developed in order to provide a more accurate estimation of pore size distribution. The new MIP measurements are conducted following a unique mercury intrusion procedure, in which the applied pressure is increased from the minimum to the maximum by repeating pressurization-depressurization cycles instead of a continuous pressurization followed by a continuousmore » depressurization. Accordingly, this method is called pressurization-depressurization cycling MIP (PDC-MIP). By following the PDC-MIP testing sequence, the volumes of the throat pores and the corresponding ink-bottle pores can be determined at every pore size. These values are used to calculate pore size distribution by using the newly developed analysis method. This paper presents an application of PDC-MIP on the investigation of the pore size distribution in cement-based materials. The experimental results of PDC-MIP are compared with those measured by standard MIP. The PDC-MIP is further validated with the other experimental methods and numerical tool, including nitrogen sorption, backscanning electron (BSE) image analysis, Wood's metal intrusion porosimetry (WMIP) and the numerical simulation by the cement hydration model HYMOSTRUC3D.« less

Climate change or climate cycles? Snowpack trends in the Olympic and Cascade Mountains, Washington, USA.

PubMed

Barry, Dwight; McDonald, Shea

2013-01-01

Climate change could significantly influence seasonal streamflow and water availability in the snowpack-fed watersheds of Washington, USA. Descriptions of snowpack decline often use linear ordinary least squares (OLS) models to quantify this change. However, the region's precipitation is known to be related to climate cycles. If snowpack decline is more closely related to these cycles, an OLS model cannot account for this effect, and thus both descriptions of trends and estimates of decline could be inaccurate. We used intervention analysis to determine whether snow water equivalent (SWE) in 25 long-term snow courses within the Olympic and Cascade Mountains are more accurately described by OLS (to represent gradual change), stationary (to represent no change), or step-stationary (to represent climate cycling) models. We used Bayesian information-theoretic methods to determine these models' relative likelihood, and we found 90 models that could plausibly describe the statistical structure of the 25 snow courses' time series. Posterior model probabilities of the 29 "most plausible" models ranged from 0.33 to 0.91 (mean = 0.58, s = 0.15). The majority of these time series (55%) were best represented as step-stationary models with a single breakpoint at 1976/77, coinciding with a major shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, estimates of SWE decline differed by as much as 35% between statistically plausible models of a single time series. This ambiguity is a critical problem for water management policy. Approaches such as intervention analysis should become part of the basic analytical toolkit for snowpack or other climatic time series data.

The volume and mean depth of Earth's lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cael, B. B.; Heathcote, A. J.; Seekell, D. A.

2017-01-01

Global lake volume estimates are scarce, highly variable, and poorly documented. We developed a rigorous method for estimating global lake depth and volume based on the Hurst coefficient of Earth's surface, which provides a mechanistic connection between lake area and volume. Volume-area scaling based on the Hurst coefficient is accurate and consistent when applied to lake data sets spanning diverse regions. We applied these relationships to a global lake area census to estimate global lake volume and depth. The volume of Earth's lakes is 199,000 km3 (95% confidence interval 196,000-202,000 km3). This volume is in the range of historical estimates (166,000-280,000 km3), but the overall mean depth of 41.8 m (95% CI 41.2-42.4 m) is significantly lower than previous estimates (62-151 m). These results highlight and constrain the relative scarcity of lake waters in the hydrosphere and have implications for the role of lakes in global biogeochemical cycles.

Methods for calculation of engineering parameters for gas separation. [vapor pressure and solubility of gases in organic liquids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lawson, D. D.

1979-01-01

A group additivity method is generated which allows estimation, from the structural formulas alone, of the energy of vaporization and the molar volume at 25 C of many nonpolar organic liquids. Using these two parameters and appropriate thermodynamic relations, the vapor pressure of the liquid phase and the solubility of various gases in nonpolar organic liquids are predicted. It is also possible to use the data to evaluate organic and some inorganic liquids for use in gas separation stages or liquids as heat exchange fluids in prospective thermochemical cycles for hydrogen production.

Comparison of human gastrocnemius forces predicted by Hill-type muscle models and estimated from ultrasound images.

PubMed

Dick, Taylor J M; Biewener, Andrew A; Wakeling, James M

2017-05-01

Hill-type models are ubiquitous in the field of biomechanics, providing estimates of a muscle's force as a function of its activation state and its assumed force-length and force-velocity properties. However, despite their routine use, the accuracy with which Hill-type models predict the forces generated by muscles during submaximal, dynamic tasks remains largely unknown. This study compared human gastrocnemius forces predicted by Hill-type models with the forces estimated from ultrasound-based measures of tendon length changes and stiffness during cycling, over a range of loads and cadences. We tested both a traditional model, with one contractile element, and a differential model, with two contractile elements that accounted for independent contributions of slow and fast muscle fibres. Both models were driven by subject-specific, ultrasound-based measures of fascicle lengths, velocities and pennation angles and by activation patterns of slow and fast muscle fibres derived from surface electromyographic recordings. The models predicted, on average, 54% of the time-varying gastrocnemius forces estimated from the ultrasound-based methods. However, differences between predicted and estimated forces were smaller under low speed-high activation conditions, with models able to predict nearly 80% of the gastrocnemius force over a complete pedal cycle. Additionally, the predictions from the Hill-type muscle models tested here showed that a similar pattern of force production could be achieved for most conditions with and without accounting for the independent contributions of different muscle fibre types. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Saving in cycles: how to get people to save more money.

PubMed

Tam, Leona; Dholakia, Utpal

2014-02-01

Low personal savings rates are an important social issue in the United States. We propose and test one particular method to get people to save more money that is based on the cyclical time orientation. In contrast to conventional, popular methods that encourage individuals to ignore past mistakes, focus on the future, and set goals to save money, our proposed method frames the savings task in cyclical terms, emphasizing the present. Across the studies, individuals who used our proposed cyclical savings method, compared with individuals who used a linear savings method, provided an average of 74% higher savings estimates and saved an average of 78% more money. We also found that the cyclical savings method was more efficacious because it increased implementation planning and lowered future optimism regarding saving money.

Advances in life cycle assessment and emergy evaluation with case studies in gold mining and pineapple production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ingwersen, Wesley W.

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is an internationally standardized framework for assessing the environmental impacts of products that is rapidly evolving to improve understanding and quantification of how complex product systems depend upon and affect the environment. This dissertation contributes to that evolution through the development of new methods for measuring impacts, estimating the uncertainty of impacts, and measuring ranges of environmental performance, with a focus on product systems in non-OECD countries that have not been well characterized. The integration of a measure of total energy use, emergy, is demonstrated in an LCA of gold from the Yanacocha mine in Peru in the second chapter. A model for estimating the accuracy of emergy results is proposed in the following chapter. The fourth chapter presents a template for LCA-based quantification of the range of environmental performance for tropical agricultural products using the example of fresh pineapple production for export in Costa Rica that can be used to create product labels with environmental information. The final chapter synthesizes how each methodological contribution will together improve the science of measuring product environmental performance.

Assisted reproductive technology in Australia and New Zealand: cumulative live birth rates as measures of success.

PubMed

Chambers, Georgina M; Paul, Repon C; Harris, Katie; Fitzgerald, Oisin; Boothroyd, Clare V; Rombauts, Luk; Chapman, Michael G; Jorm, Louisa

2017-08-07

To estimate cumulative live birth rates (CLBRs) following repeated assisted reproductive technology (ART) ovarian stimulation cycles, including all fresh and frozen/thaw embryo transfers (complete cycles). Prospective follow-up of 56 652 women commencing ART in Australian and New Zealand during 2009-2012, and followed until 2014 or the first treatment-dependent live birth. CLBRs and cycle-specific live birth rates were calculated for up to eight cycles, stratified by the age of the women (< 30, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, > 44 years). Conservative CLBRs assumed that women discontinuing treatment had no chance of achieving a live birth if had they continued treatment; optimal CLBRs assumed that they would have had the same chance as women who continued treatment. The overall CLBR was 32.7% (95% CI, 32.2-33.1%) in the first cycle, rising by the eighth cycle to 54.3% (95% CI, 53.9-54.7%) (conservative) and 77.2% (95% CI, 76.5-77.9%) (optimal). The CLBR decreased with age and number of complete cycles. For women who commenced ART treatment before 30 years of age, the CLBR for the first complete cycle was 43.7% (95% CI, 42.6-44.7%), rising to 69.2% (95% CI, 68.2-70.1%) (conservative) and 92.8% (95% CI, 91.6-94.0) (optimal) for the seventh cycle. For women aged 40-44 years, the CLBR was 10.7% (95% CI, 10.1-11.3%) for the first complete cycle, rising to 21.0% (95% CI, 20.2-21.8%) (conservative) and 37.9% (95% CI, 35.9-39.9%) (optimal) for the eighth cycle. CLBRs based on complete cycles are meaningful estimates of ART success, reflecting contemporary clinical practice and encouraging safe practice. These estimates can be used when counselling patients and to inform public policy on ART treatment.

In-series compliance of gastrocnemius muscle in cat step cycle: do spindles signal origin-to-insertion length?

PubMed Central

Elek, J; Prochazka, A; Hulliger, M; Vincent, S

1990-01-01

1. It has been claimed that stretch in the non-contractile (extramysial) portion of muscles is substantial, and may produce large discrepancies between the origin-to-insertion muscle length and the internal length variations 'seen' by muscle spindle endings. 2. In eight pentobarbitone-anaesthetized cats, we estimated stretch in the extramysial portion of medial gastrocnemius (MG) muscle with a method similar to the spindle null technique. 3. Length variations of MG previously monitored in a normal step cycle were reproduced with a computer-controlled length servo. The responses of test MG spindle endings were monitored in dorsal root filaments. Distributed stimulation of ventral root filaments, rate-modulated by the step-cycle EMG envelope, served to reproduce step-cycle forces. The filaments were selected so as to have no fusimotor action on the test spindle. 4. Spindle responses in active cycles were compared with those in passive cycles (stretch, but no distributed stimulation). In some cases concomitant tonic fusimotor stimulation was used to maintain spindle responsiveness throughout the cycle, both in active and passive trials. Generally, small discrepancies in spindle firing were seen. The passive trials were now repeated, with iterative adjustments of the length function, until the response matched the spindle firing profile in the active trial. The spindle 'saw' the same internal length change in the final passive trial as in the active trial. Any difference between the corresponding length profiles was attributed to extramysial displacement. 5. Extramysial displacement estimated in this was was maximal at short mean muscle lengths, reaching about 0.5 mm in a typical step cycle (force rising from 0 to 10 N). At longer mean muscle lengths where muscle force rose from say 2 to 12 N in the cycle, extramysial displacement was in the range 0.2-0.4 mm. 6. Except at very short lengths, the displacement was probably mainly tendinous. On this assumption, our results suggested that the stiffness of the MG tendinous compartment was force related, and about double that of cat soleus muscle at any given force. Calculations indicated that though the stretch was small, the MG tendon would store and release enough strain energy per cycle to contribute significantly to the E3 phase of the step cycle. The discrepancies in spindle firing were generally quite subtle, so we reject the claim that extramysial stretch poses a serious difficulty for inferences about fusimotion from chronic spindle afferent recordings. PMID:2148952

Cell-production rates estimated by the use of vincristine sulphate and flow cytometry. I. An in vitro study using murine tumour cell lines.

PubMed

Barfod, I H; Barfod, N M

1980-01-01

A method for the evaluation of cell-production rates is described which combines flow cytometry (FCM) and the stathmokinetic method. By means of FCM it is possible to estimate the distribution of cells with G1, S and (G2 + M) DNA content in a population. As this method gives the relative (G2 + M) DNA content of cells within the cell cycle, it may be possible to evaluate cell-production rates by this technique. In the present study it was found that administration of a metaphase-arresting (stathmokinetic) agent, vincristine sulphate (VS), to asynchronous cell populations of three different murine tumour cell lines in vitro increased the peak representing cells with (G2 + M) DNA content as the number of mitotic (M) cells increased during the period of treatment. The accumulation of mitotic cells was determined by cell counts on smears under the microscope and compared with increase in the (G2 + M) DNA peak measured by FCM as a function of time after the administration of VS. Good agreement was obtained between the cell-production rates as estimated by FCM and by mitotic counts in all three cell lines investigated.

Project risk management in the construction of high-rise buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titarenko, Boris; Hasnaoui, Amir; Titarenko, Roman; Buzuk, Liliya

2018-03-01

This paper shows the project risk management methods, which allow to better identify risks in the construction of high-rise buildings and to manage them throughout the life cycle of the project. One of the project risk management processes is a quantitative analysis of risks. The quantitative analysis usually includes the assessment of the potential impact of project risks and their probabilities. This paper shows the most popular methods of risk probability assessment and tries to indicate the advantages of the robust approach over the traditional methods. Within the framework of the project risk management model a robust approach of P. Huber is applied and expanded for the tasks of regression analysis of project data. The suggested algorithms used to assess the parameters in statistical models allow to obtain reliable estimates. A review of the theoretical problems of the development of robust models built on the methodology of the minimax estimates was done and the algorithm for the situation of asymmetric "contamination" was developed.

Evapotranspiration estimation using a parameter-parsimonious energy partition model over Amazon basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, D.; Agee, E.; Wang, J.; Ivanov, V. Y.

2017-12-01

The increased frequency and severity of droughts in the Amazon region have emphasized the potential vulnerability of the rainforests to heat and drought-induced stresses, highlighting the need to reduce the uncertainty in estimates of regional evapotranspiration (ET) and quantify resilience of the forest. Ground-based observations for estimating ET are resource intensive, making methods based on remotely sensed observations an attractive alternative. Several methodologies have been developed to estimate ET from satellite data, but challenges remained in model parameterization and satellite limited coverage reducing their utility for monitoring biodiverse regions. In this work, we apply a novel surface energy partition method (Maximum Entropy Production; MEP) based on Bayesian probability theory and nonequilibrium thermodynamics to derive ET time series using satellite data for Amazon basin. For a large, sparsely monitored region such as the Amazon, this approach has the advantage methods of only using single level measurements of net radiation, temperature, and specific humidity data. Furthermore, it is not sensitive to the uncertainty of the input data and model parameters. In this first application of MEP theory for a tropical forest biome, we assess its performance at various spatiotemporal scales against a diverse field data sets. Specifically, the objective of this work is to test this method using eddy flux data for several locations across the Amazonia at sub-daily, monthly, and annual scales and compare the new estimates with those using traditional methods. Analyses of the derived ET time series will contribute to reducing the current knowledge gap surrounding the much debated response of the Amazon Basin region to droughts and offer a template for monitoring the long-term changes in global hydrologic cycle due to anthropogenic and natural causes.

A self-sensing active magnetic bearing based on a direct current measurement approach.

PubMed

Niemann, Andries C; van Schoor, George; du Rand, Carel P

2013-09-11

Active magnetic bearings (AMBs) have become a key technology in various industrial applications. Self-sensing AMBs provide an integrated sensorless solution for position estimation, consolidating the sensing and actuating functions into a single electromagnetic transducer. The approach aims to reduce possible hardware failure points, production costs, and system complexity. Despite these advantages, self-sensing methods must address various technical challenges to maximize the performance thereof. This paper presents the direct current measurement (DCM) approach for self-sensing AMBs, denoting the direct measurement of the current ripple component. In AMB systems, switching power amplifiers (PAs) modulate the rotor position information onto the current waveform. Demodulation self-sensing techniques then use bandpass and lowpass filters to estimate the rotor position from the voltage and current signals. However, the additional phase-shift introduced by these filters results in lower stability margins. The DCM approach utilizes a novel PA switching method that directly measures the current ripple to obtain duty-cycle invariant position estimates. Demodulation filters are largely excluded to minimize additional phase-shift in the position estimates. Basic functionality and performance of the proposed self-sensing approach are demonstrated via a transient simulation model as well as a high current (10 A) experimental system. A digital implementation of amplitude modulation self-sensing serves as a comparative estimator.

An adaptive model for vanadium redox flow battery and its application for online peak power estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Zhongbao; Meng, Shujuan; Tseng, King Jet; Lim, Tuti Mariana; Soong, Boon Hee; Skyllas-Kazacos, Maria

2017-03-01

An accurate battery model is the prerequisite for reliable state estimate of vanadium redox battery (VRB). As the battery model parameters are time varying with operating condition variation and battery aging, the common methods where model parameters are empirical or prescribed offline lacks accuracy and robustness. To address this issue, this paper proposes to use an online adaptive battery model to reproduce the VRB dynamics accurately. The model parameters are online identified with both the recursive least squares (RLS) and the extended Kalman filter (EKF). Performance comparison shows that the RLS is superior with respect to the modeling accuracy, convergence property, and computational complexity. Based on the online identified battery model, an adaptive peak power estimator which incorporates the constraints of voltage limit, SOC limit and design limit of current is proposed to fully exploit the potential of the VRB. Experiments are conducted on a lab-scale VRB system and the proposed peak power estimator is verified with a specifically designed "two-step verification" method. It is shown that different constraints dominate the allowable peak power at different stages of cycling. The influence of prediction time horizon selection on the peak power is also analyzed.

Evaluation of different methods to estimate daily reference evapotranspiration in ungauged basins in Southern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro Fontoura, Jessica; Allasia, Daniel; Herbstrith Froemming, Gabriel; Freitas Ferreira, Pedro; Tassi, Rutineia

2016-04-01

Evapotranspiration is a key process of hydrological cycle and a sole term that links land surface water balance and land surface energy balance. Due to the higher information requirements of the Penman-Monteith method and the existing data uncertainty, simplified empirical methods for calculating potential and actual evapotranspiration are widely used in hydrological models. This is especially important in Brazil, where the monitoring of meteorological data is precarious. In this study were compared different methods for estimating evapotranspiration for Rio Grande do Sul, the Southernmost State of Brazil, aiming to suggest alternatives to the recommended method (Penman-Monteith-FAO 56) for estimate daily reference evapotranspiration (ETo) when meteorological data is missing or not available. The input dataset included daily and hourly-observed data from conventional and automatic weather stations respectively maintained by the National Weather Institute of Brazil (INMET) from the period of 1 January 2007 to 31 January 2010. Dataset included maximum temperature (Tmax, °C), minimum temperature (Tmin, °C), mean relative humidity (%), wind speed at 2 m height (u2, m s-1), daily solar radiation (Rs, MJ m- 2) and atmospheric pressure (kPa) that were grouped at daily time-step. Was tested the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Penman-Monteith method (PM) at its full form, against PM assuming missing several variables not normally available in Brazil in order to calculate daily reference ETo. Missing variables were estimated as suggested in FAO56 publication or from climatological means. Furthermore, PM was also compared against the following simplified empirical methods: Hargreaves-Samani, Priestley-Taylor, Mccloud, McGuiness-Bordne, Romanenko, Radiation-Temperature, Tanner-Pelton. The statistical analysis indicates that even if just Tmin and Tmax are available, it is better to use PM estimating missing variables from syntetic data than simplified empirical methods evaluated except for Tanner-Pelton and Priestley-Taylor.

Ore grade decrease as life cycle impact indicator for metal scarcity: the case of copper.

PubMed

Vieira, Marisa D M; Goedkoop, Mark J; Storm, Per; Huijbregts, Mark A J

2012-12-04

In the life cycle assessment (LCA) of products, the increasing scarcity of metal resources is currently addressed in a preliminary way. Here, we propose a new method on the basis of global ore grade information to assess the importance of the extraction of metal resources in the life cycle of products. It is shown how characterization factors, reflecting the decrease in ore grade due to an increase in metal extraction, can be derived from cumulative ore grade-tonnage relationships. CFs were derived for three different types of copper deposits (porphyry, sediment-hosted, and volcanogenic massive sulfide). We tested the influence of the CF model (marginal vs average), mathematical distribution (loglogistic vs loglinear), and reserve estimate (ultimate reserve vs reserve base). For the marginal CFs, the statistical distribution choice and the estimate of the copper reserves introduce a difference of a factor of 1.0-5.0 and a factor of 1.2-1.7, respectively. For the average CFs, the differences are larger for these two choices, i.e. respectively a factor of 5.7-43 and a factor of 2.1-3.8. Comparing the marginal CFs with the average CFs, the differences are higher (a factor 1.7-94). This paper demonstrates that cumulative grade-tonnage relationships for metal extraction can be used in LCA to assess the relative importance of metal extractions.

A Forecast of Reduced Solar Activity and Its Implications for NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth; Franz, Heather

2005-01-01

The "Solar Dynamo" method of solar activity forecasting is reviewed. Known generically as a 'precursor" method, insofar as it uses observations which precede solar activity generation, this method now uses the Solar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) Index to estimate future long-term solar activity. The peak amplitude of the next solar cycle (#24), is estimated at roughly 124 in terms of smoothed F10.7 Radio Flux and 74 in terms of the older, more traditional smoothed international or Zurich Sunspot number (Ri or Rz). These values are significantly smaller than the amplitudes of recent solar cycles. Levels of activity stay large for about four years near the peak in smoothed activity, which is estimated to occur near the 2012 timeflame. Confidence is added to the prediction of low activity by numerous examinations of the Sun s weakened polar field. Direct measurements are obtained by the Mount Wilson Solar Observatory and the Wilcox Solar Observatory. Further support is obtained by examining the Sun s polar faculae (bright features), the shape of coronal soft X-ray "holes," and the shape of the "source surface" - a calculated coronal feature which maps the large scale structure of the Sun s field. These features do not show the characteristics of well-formed polar coronal holes associated with typical solar minima. They show stunted polar field levels, which are thought to result in stunted levels of solar activity during solar cycle #24. The reduced levels of solar activity would have concomitant effects upon the space environment in which satellites orbit. In particular, the largest influences would affect orbit determination of satellites in LEO (Low Earth Orbit), based upon the altered thermospheric and exospheric densities. A decrease in solar activity would result in smaller satellite decay rates, as well as fewer large solar events that can destroy satellite electronic functions. Other effects of reduced solar activity upon the space environment include enhanced galactic cosmic rays and more space debris at low altitudes (from the decay of old satellite parts, etc.). The reasons are well known: namely, solar activity serves to sweep the inner heliosphere of galactic cosmic rays, and lower exospheric densities result in decreased drag on LEO debris, allowing longer lifetimes.

Estimating soil organic and aboveground woody carbon stock in a protected dry Miombo ecosystem, Zimbabwe: Landsat 8 OLI data applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dube, Timothy; Muchena, Richard; Masocha, Mhosisi; Shoko, Cletah

2018-06-01

Accurate and reliable soil organic carbon stock estimation is critical in understanding forest role to regional carbon cycles. So far, the total carbon pool in dry Miombo ecosystems is often under-estimated. In that regard this study sought to model the relationship between the aboveground woody carbon pool and the soil carbon pool, using both ground-based and remote sensing methods. To achieve this objective, the Ratio Vegetation Index (RVI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and the Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) computed from the newly launched Landsat 8 OLI satellite data were used. Correlation and regression analysis were used to relate Soil Organic Carbon (S.O.C), aboveground woody carbon and remotely sensed vegetation indices. Results showed a soil organic carbon in the upper soil layer (0-15 cm) was positively correlated with aboveground woody carbon and this relationship was significant (r = 0.678; P < 0.05) aboveground carbon. However, there were no significant correlations (r = -0.11, P > 0.05) between SOC in the deeper soil layer (15-30 cm) and aboveground woody carbon. These findings imply that (relationship between aboveground woody carbon and S.O.C) aboveground woody carbon stocks can be used as a proxy to estimate S.O.C in the top soil layer (0-15 cm) in dry Miombo ecosystems. Overall, these findings underscore the potential and significance of remote sensing data in understanding savanna ecosystems contribution to the global carbon cycle.

Using CarbonTracker carbon flux estimates to improve a terrestrial carbon cycle model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, W.; Krol, M.; Miller, J. B.; Tans, P. P.; Carvalhais, N.; Schaefer, K.

2009-12-01

Estimates of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) from NOAA’s CarbonTracker CO2 data assimilation system show patterns of annual net uptake not represented in most terrestrial carbon cycle models. This is mainly because such models lack information on the land-use history of individual ecosystems, which is the main driver of long-term mean carbon exchange. Instead, they assume the biosphere to be in steady-state, with annual gross photosynthesis equalling ecosystem respiration everywhere. This limits their use in interpreting observations of carbon dynamics such as with eddy-covariance techniques or through atmospheric CO2 records. We have implemented a method that takes the long-term mean NEE estimates from CarbonTracker to derive the size of the dominant carbon pool in each ecosystem of the SIBCASA biosphere model. With the new pool sizes, the SIBCASA model is no longer in steady-state and reproduces annual carbon uptake patterns from CarbonTracker. We will show that the non steady-state SIBCASA model is not only much more consistent with the atmospheric CO2 record, but also with independent data on standing wood biomass and forest age from the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program of the U.S. Forest Service. Four years of CarbonTracker NEE are needed to reliably derive a long term mean for this process, and we use three other years from CarbonTracker to evaluate the non steady state SIBCASA NEE. We will furthermore show that the non steady-state SIBCASA NEE is a much better first-guess for the CarbonTracker data assimilation process, allowing more confidence in its final NEE estimate, and reducing a systematic bias in CarbonTracker modeled atmospheric CO2. This overcomes a long standing issue in inverse modeling, and opens the way for further assessment and improvement of carbon cycle models such as SIBCASA.

An Estimate of the Size and Shape of Sunspot Cycle 24 Based on its Early Cycle Behavior using the Hathaway-Wilson-Reichmann Shape-Fitting Function

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2011-01-01

On the basis of 12-month moving averages (12-mma) of monthly mean sunspot number (R), sunspot cycle 24 had its minimum amplitude (Rm = 1.7) in December 2008. At 12 mo past minimum, R measured 8.3, and at 18 mo past minimum, it measured 16.4. Thus far, the maximum month-to-month rate of rise in 12-mma values of monthly mean sunspot number (AR(t) max) has been 1.7, having occurred at elapsed times past minimum amplitude (t) of 14 and 15 mo. Compared to other sunspot cycles of the modern era, cycle 24?s Rm and AR(t) max (as observed so far) are the smallest on record, suggesting that it likely will be a slow-rising, long-period sunspot cycle of below average maximum amplitude (RM). Supporting this view is the now observed relative strength of cycle 24?s geomagnetic minimum amplitude as measured using the 12-mma value of the aa-geomagnetic index (aam = 8.4), which also is the smallest on record, having occurred at t equals 8 and 9 mo. From the method of Ohl (the inferred preferential association between RM and aam), one predicts RM = 55 +/- 17 (the ?1 se prediction interval) for cycle 24. Furthermore, from the Waldmeier effect (the inferred preferential association between the ascent duration (ASC) and RM) one predicts an ASC longer than 48 mo for cycle 24; hence, maximum amplitude occurrence should be after December 2012. Application of the Hathaway-Wilson-Reichmann shape-fitting function, using an RM = 70 and ASC = 56 mo, is found to adequately fit the early sunspot number growth of cycle 24.

Daily pan evaporation modelling using a neuro-fuzzy computing technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kişi, Özgür

2006-10-01

SummaryEvaporation, as a major component of the hydrologic cycle, is important in water resources development and management. This paper investigates the abilities of neuro-fuzzy (NF) technique to improve the accuracy of daily evaporation estimation. Five different NF models comprising various combinations of daily climatic variables, that is, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, pressure and humidity are developed to evaluate degree of effect of each of these variables on evaporation. A comparison is made between the estimates provided by the NF model and the artificial neural networks (ANNs). The Stephens-Stewart (SS) method is also considered for the comparison. Various statistic measures are used to evaluate the performance of the models. Based on the comparisons, it was found that the NF computing technique could be employed successfully in modelling evaporation process from the available climatic data. The ANN also found to perform better than the SS method.

An Enhanced Non-Coherent Pre-Filter Design for Tracking Error Estimation in GNSS Receivers.

PubMed

Luo, Zhibin; Ding, Jicheng; Zhao, Lin; Wu, Mouyan

2017-11-18

Tracking error estimation is of great importance in global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers. Any inaccurate estimation for tracking error will decrease the signal tracking ability of signal tracking loops and the accuracies of position fixing, velocity determination, and timing. Tracking error estimation can be done by traditional discriminator, or Kalman filter-based pre-filter. The pre-filter can be divided into two categories: coherent and non-coherent. This paper focuses on the performance improvements of non-coherent pre-filter. Firstly, the signal characteristics of coherent and non-coherent integration-which are the basis of tracking error estimation-are analyzed in detail. After that, the probability distribution of estimation noise of four-quadrant arctangent (ATAN2) discriminator is derived according to the mathematical model of coherent integration. Secondly, the statistical property of observation noise of non-coherent pre-filter is studied through Monte Carlo simulation to set the observation noise variance matrix correctly. Thirdly, a simple fault detection and exclusion (FDE) structure is introduced to the non-coherent pre-filter design, and thus its effective working range for carrier phase error estimation extends from (-0.25 cycle, 0.25 cycle) to (-0.5 cycle, 0.5 cycle). Finally, the estimation accuracies of discriminator, coherent pre-filter, and the enhanced non-coherent pre-filter are evaluated comprehensively through the carefully designed experiment scenario. The pre-filter outperforms traditional discriminator in estimation accuracy. In a highly dynamic scenario, the enhanced non-coherent pre-filter provides accuracy improvements of 41.6%, 46.4%, and 50.36% for carrier phase error, carrier frequency error, and code phase error estimation, respectively, when compared with coherent pre-filter. The enhanced non-coherent pre-filter outperforms the coherent pre-filter in code phase error estimation when carrier-to-noise density ratio is less than 28.8 dB-Hz, in carrier frequency error estimation when carrier-to-noise density ratio is less than 20 dB-Hz, and in carrier phase error estimation when carrier-to-noise density belongs to (15, 23) dB-Hz ∪ (26, 50) dB-Hz.

Automated analysis of plethysmograms for functional studies of hemodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zatrudina, R. Sh.; Isupov, I. B.; Gribkov, V. Yu.

2018-04-01

The most promising method for the quantitative determination of cardiovascular tone indicators and of cerebral hemodynamics indicators is the method of impedance plethysmography. The accurate determination of these indicators requires the correct identification of the characteristic points in the thoracic impedance plethysmogram and the cranial impedance plethysmogram respectively. An algorithm for automatic analysis of these plethysmogram is presented. The algorithm is based on the hard temporal relationships between the phases of the cardiac cycle and the characteristic points of the plethysmogram. The proposed algorithm does not require estimation of initial data and selection of processing parameters. Use of the method on healthy subjects showed a very low detection error of characteristic points.

Gait-Event-Based Synchronization Method for Gait Rehabilitation Robots via a Bioinspired Adaptive Oscillator.

PubMed

Chen, Gong; Qi, Peng; Guo, Zhao; Yu, Haoyong

2017-06-01

In the field of gait rehabilitation robotics, achieving human-robot synchronization is very important. In this paper, a novel human-robot synchronization method using gait event information is proposed. This method includes two steps. First, seven gait events in one gait cycle are detected in real time with a hidden Markov model; second, an adaptive oscillator is utilized to estimate the stride percentage of human gait using any one of the gait events. Synchronous reference trajectories for the robot are then generated with the estimated stride percentage. This method is based on a bioinspired adaptive oscillator, which is a mathematical tool, first proposed to explain the phenomenon of synchronous flashing among fireflies. The proposed synchronization method is implemented in a portable knee-ankle-foot robot and tested in 15 healthy subjects. This method has the advantages of simple structure, flexible selection of gait events, and fast adaptation. Gait event is the only information needed, and hence the performance of synchronization holds when an abnormal gait pattern is involved. The results of the experiments reveal that our approach is efficient in achieving human-robot synchronization and feasible for rehabilitation robotics application.

An inventory of irrigated lands for selected counties within the state of California based on LANDSAT and supporting aircraft data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colwell, R. N. (Principal Investigator)

1977-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results: (1) Goals of the irrigated lands project were addressed by the design and implementation of a multiphase sampling scheme that was founded on the utilization of a LANDSAT-based remote sensing system. (2) The synoptic coverage of LANDSAT and the eighteen day orbit cycle allowed the project to study agricultural test sites in a variety of environmental regions and monitor the development of crops throughout the major growing season. (3) The capability to utilize multidate imagery is crucial to the reliable estimation of irrigated acreage in California where multiple cropping is widespread and current estimation systems must rely on single data survey techniques. (4) In addition, the magnitude of agricultural acreage in California makes estimation by conventional methods impossible.

A simple method to estimate vegetation indices and crop canopy factors using field spectroscopy for solanum tuberosum during the whole phenological cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perdikou, S.; Papadavid, G.; Hadjimitsis, M.; Hadjimitsis, D.; Neofytou, N.

2013-08-01

Field spectroscopy is a part of the remote sensing techniques and very important for studies in agriculture. A GER-1500 field spectro-radiometer was used in this study in order to retrieve the necessary spectrum data of the spring potatoes for estimating spectral vegetation indices (SVI's). A field campaign was undertaken from September to the end of November 2012 for the collection of spectro-radiometric measurements. The study area was in the Mandria Village in Paphos district in Cyprus. This paper demonstrates how crop canopy factors can be statistically related to remotely sensed data, namely vegetation indices. The paper is a part of an EU cofounded project regarding estimating crop water requirements using remote sensing techniques and informing the farmers through 3G smart telephony.

A drift-diffusion checkpoint model predicts a highly variable and growth-factor-sensitive portion of the cell cycle G1 phase.

PubMed

Jones, Zack W; Leander, Rachel; Quaranta, Vito; Harris, Leonard A; Tyson, Darren R

2018-01-01

Even among isogenic cells, the time to progress through the cell cycle, or the intermitotic time (IMT), is highly variable. This variability has been a topic of research for several decades and numerous mathematical models have been proposed to explain it. Previously, we developed a top-down, stochastic drift-diffusion+threshold (DDT) model of a cell cycle checkpoint and showed that it can accurately describe experimentally-derived IMT distributions [Leander R, Allen EJ, Garbett SP, Tyson DR, Quaranta V. Derivation and experimental comparison of cell-division probability densities. J. Theor. Biol. 2014;358:129-135]. Here, we use the DDT modeling approach for both descriptive and predictive data analysis. We develop a custom numerical method for the reliable maximum likelihood estimation of model parameters in the absence of a priori knowledge about the number of detectable checkpoints. We employ this method to fit different variants of the DDT model (with one, two, and three checkpoints) to IMT data from multiple cell lines under different growth conditions and drug treatments. We find that a two-checkpoint model best describes the data, consistent with the notion that the cell cycle can be broadly separated into two steps: the commitment to divide and the process of cell division. The model predicts one part of the cell cycle to be highly variable and growth factor sensitive while the other is less variable and relatively refractory to growth factor signaling. Using experimental data that separates IMT into G1 vs. S, G2, and M phases, we show that the model-predicted growth-factor-sensitive part of the cell cycle corresponds to a portion of G1, consistent with previous studies suggesting that the commitment step is the primary source of IMT variability. These results demonstrate that a simple stochastic model, with just a handful of parameters, can provide fundamental insights into the biological underpinnings of cell cycle progression.

Mathematics of quantitative kinetic PCR and the application of standard curves.

PubMed

Rutledge, R G; Côté, C

2003-08-15

Fluorescent monitoring of DNA amplification is the basis of real-time PCR, from which target DNA concentration can be determined from the fractional cycle at which a threshold amount of amplicon DNA is produced. Absolute quantification can be achieved using a standard curve constructed by amplifying known amounts of target DNA. In this study, the mathematics of quantitative PCR are examined in detail, from which several fundamental aspects of the threshold method and the application of standard curves are illustrated. The construction of five replicate standard curves for two pairs of nested primers was used to examine the reproducibility and degree of quantitative variation using SYBER Green I fluorescence. Based upon this analysis the application of a single, well- constructed standard curve could provide an estimated precision of +/-6-21%, depending on the number of cycles required to reach threshold. A simplified method for absolute quantification is also proposed, in which quantitative scale is determined by DNA mass at threshold.

Cycle-expansion method for the Lyapunov exponent, susceptibility, and higher moments.

PubMed

Charbonneau, Patrick; Li, Yue Cathy; Pfister, Henry D; Yaida, Sho

2017-09-01

Lyapunov exponents characterize the chaotic nature of dynamical systems by quantifying the growth rate of uncertainty associated with the imperfect measurement of initial conditions. Finite-time estimates of the exponent, however, experience fluctuations due to both the initial condition and the stochastic nature of the dynamical path. The scale of these fluctuations is governed by the Lyapunov susceptibility, the finiteness of which typically provides a sufficient condition for the law of large numbers to apply. Here, we obtain a formally exact expression for this susceptibility in terms of the Ruelle dynamical ζ function for one-dimensional systems. We further show that, for systems governed by sequences of random matrices, the cycle expansion of the ζ function enables systematic computations of the Lyapunov susceptibility and of its higher-moment generalizations. The method is here applied to a class of dynamical models that maps to static disordered spin chains with interactions stretching over a varying distance and is tested against Monte Carlo simulations.

Cyclic Hardness Test PHYBALCHT: A New Short-Time Procedure to Estimate Fatigue Properties of Metallic Materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kramer, Hendrik; Klein, Marcus; Eifler, Dietmar

Conventional methods to characterize the fatigue behavior of metallic materials are very time and cost consuming. That is why the new short-time procedure PHYBALCHT was developed at the Institute of Materials Science and Engineering at the University of Kaiserslautern. This innovative method requires only a planar material surface to perform cyclic force-controlled hardness indentation tests. To characterize the cyclic elastic-plastic behavior of the test material the change of the force-indentation-depth-hysteresis is plotted versus the number of indentation cycles. In accordance to the plastic strain amplitude the indentation-depth width of the hysteresis loop is measured at half minimum force and is called plastic indentation-depth amplitude. Its change as a function of the number of cycles of indentation can be described by power-laws. One of these power-laws contains the hardening-exponentCHT e II , which correlates very well with the amount of cyclic hardening in conventional constant amplitude fatigue tests.

Regional cardiac wall motion from gated myocardial perfusion SPECT studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, M. F.; Brigger, P.; Ferrand, S. K.; Dilsizian, V.; Bacharach, S. L.

1999-06-01

A method for estimating regional epicardial and endocardial wall motion from gated myocardial perfusion SPECT studies has been developed. The method uses epicardial and endocardial boundaries determined from four long-axis slices at each gate of the cardiac cycle. The epicardial and endocardial wall position at each time gate is computed with respect to stationary reference ellipsoids, and wall motion is measured along lines normal to these ellipsoids. An initial quantitative evaluation of the method was made using the beating heart from the dynamic mathematical cardiac torso (MCAT) phantom, with and without a 1.5-cm FWHM Gaussian blurring filter. Epicardial wall motion was generally well-estimated within a fraction of a 3.56-mm voxel, although apical motion was overestimated with the Gaussian filter. Endocardial wall motion was underestimated by about two voxels with and without the Gaussian filter. The MCAT heart phantom was modified to model hypokinetic and dyskinetic wall motion. The wall motion analysis method enabled this abnormal motion to be differentiated from normal motion. Regional cardiac wall motion also was analyzed for /sup 201/Tl patient studies. Estimated wall motion was consistent with a nuclear medicine physician's visual assessment of motion from gated long-axis slices for male and female study examples. Additional research is required for a comprehensive evaluation of the applicability of the method to patient studies with normal and abnormal wall motion.

Modeling aboveground tree woody biomass using national-scale allometric methods and airborne lidar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Qi

2015-08-01

Estimating tree aboveground biomass (AGB) and carbon (C) stocks using remote sensing is a critical component for understanding the global C cycle and mitigating climate change. However, the importance of allometry for remote sensing of AGB has not been recognized until recently. The overarching goals of this study are to understand the differences and relationships among three national-scale allometric methods (CRM, Jenkins, and the regional models) of the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program in the U.S. and to examine the impacts of using alternative allometry on the fitting statistics of remote sensing-based woody AGB models. Airborne lidar data from three study sites in the Pacific Northwest, USA were used to predict woody AGB estimated from the different allometric methods. It was found that the CRM and Jenkins estimates of woody AGB are related via the CRM adjustment factor. In terms of lidar-biomass modeling, CRM had the smallest model errors, while the Jenkins method had the largest ones and the regional method was between. The best model fitting from CRM is attributed to its inclusion of tree height in calculating merchantable stem volume and the strong dependence of non-merchantable stem biomass on merchantable stem biomass. This study also argues that it is important to characterize the allometric model errors for gaining a complete understanding of the remotely-sensed AGB prediction errors.

Lessons Learned from the Deployment and Integration of a Microwave Sounder Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Surface Wind Estimation Algorithm into NOAA/NESDIS Satellite Product Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longmore, S. P.; Knaff, J. A.; Schumacher, A.; Dostalek, J.; DeMaria, R.; Chirokova, G.; Demaria, M.; Powell, D. C.; Sigmund, A.; Yu, W.

2014-12-01

The Colorado State University (CSU) Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) has recently deployed a tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and surface wind radii estimation algorithm that utilizes Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) from the NOAA18, NOAA19 and METOPA polar orbiting satellites for testing, integration and operations for the Product System Development and Implementation (PSDI) projects at NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS). This presentation discusses the evolution of the CIRA NPP/AMSU TC algorithms internally at CIRA and its migration and integration into the NOAA Data Exploitation (NDE) development and testing frameworks. The discussion will focus on 1) the development cycle of internal NPP/AMSU TC algorithms components by scientists and software engineers, 2) the exchange of these components into the NPP/AMSU TC software systems using the subversion version control system and other exchange methods, 3) testing, debugging and integration of the NPP/AMSU TC systems both at CIRA/NESDIS and 4) the update cycle of new releases through continuous integration. Lastly, a discussion of the methods that were effective and those that need revision will be detailed for the next iteration of the NPP/AMSU TC system.

Improved methods for estimating local terrestrial water dynamics from GRACE in the Northern High Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seyoum, Wondwosen M.; Milewski, Adam M.

2017-12-01

Investigating terrestrial water cycle dynamics is vital for understanding the recent climatic variability and human impacts in the hydrologic cycle. In this study, a downscaling approach was developed and tested, to improve the applicability of terrestrial water storage (TWS) anomaly data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission for understanding local terrestrial water cycle dynamics in the Northern High Plains region. A non-parametric, artificial neural network (ANN)-based model, was utilized to downscale GRACE data by integrating it with hydrological variables (e.g. soil moisture) derived from satellite and land surface model data. The downscaling model, constructed through calibration and sensitivity analysis, was used to estimate TWS anomaly for watersheds ranging from 5000 to 20,000 km2 in the study area. The downscaled water storage anomaly data were evaluated using water storage data derived from an (1) integrated hydrologic model, (2) land surface model (e.g. Noah), and (3) storage anomalies calculated from in-situ groundwater level measurements. Results demonstrate the ANN predicts monthly TWS anomaly within the uncertainty (conservative error estimate = 34 mm) for most of the watersheds. Seasonal derived groundwater storage anomaly (GWSA) from the ANN correlated well (r = ∼0.85) with GWSAs calculated from in-situ groundwater level measurements for a watershed size as small as 6000 km2. ANN downscaled TWSA matches closely with Noah-based TWSA compared to standard GRACE extracted TWSA at a local scale. Moreover, the ANN-downscaled change in TWS replicated the water storage variability resulting from the combined effect of climatic and human impacts (e.g. abstraction). The implications of utilizing finer resolution GRACE data for improving local and regional water resources management decisions and applications are clear, particularly in areas lacking in-situ hydrologic monitoring networks.

Development of the hybrid sulfur cycle for use with concentrated solar heat. I. Conceptual design

DOE PAGES

Gorensek, Maximilian B.; Corgnale, Claudio; Summers, William A.

2017-07-27

We propose a detailed conceptual design of a solar hybrid sulfur (HyS) cycle. Numerous design tradeoffs, including process operating conditions and strategies, methods of integration with solar energy sources, and solar design options were considered. A baseline design was selected, and process flowsheets were developed. Pinch analyses were performed to establish the limiting energy efficiency. Detailed material and energy balances were completed, and a full stream table prepared. Design assumptions include use of: location in the southwest US desert, falling particle concentrated solar receiver, indirect heat transfer via pressurized helium, continuous operation with thermal energy storage, liquid-fed electrolyzer with PBImore » membrane, and bayonet-type acid decomposer. Thermochemical cycle efficiency for the HyS process was estimated to be 35.0%, LHV basis. The solar-to-hydrogen (STH) energy conversion ratio was 16.9%. This thus exceeds the Year 2015 DOE STCH target of STH >10%, and shows promise for meeting the Year 2020 target of 20%.« less

Development of the hybrid sulfur cycle for use with concentrated solar heat. I. Conceptual design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gorensek, Maximilian B.; Corgnale, Claudio; Summers, William A.

We propose a detailed conceptual design of a solar hybrid sulfur (HyS) cycle. Numerous design tradeoffs, including process operating conditions and strategies, methods of integration with solar energy sources, and solar design options were considered. A baseline design was selected, and process flowsheets were developed. Pinch analyses were performed to establish the limiting energy efficiency. Detailed material and energy balances were completed, and a full stream table prepared. Design assumptions include use of: location in the southwest US desert, falling particle concentrated solar receiver, indirect heat transfer via pressurized helium, continuous operation with thermal energy storage, liquid-fed electrolyzer with PBImore » membrane, and bayonet-type acid decomposer. Thermochemical cycle efficiency for the HyS process was estimated to be 35.0%, LHV basis. The solar-to-hydrogen (STH) energy conversion ratio was 16.9%. This thus exceeds the Year 2015 DOE STCH target of STH >10%, and shows promise for meeting the Year 2020 target of 20%.« less

LOX Tank Helium Removal for Propellant Scavenging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chato, David J.

2009-01-01

System studies have shown a significant advantage to reusing the hydrogen and oxygen left in these tanks after landing on the Moon in fuel cells to generate power and water for surface systems. However in the current lander concepts, the helium used to pressurize the oxygen tank can substantially degrade fuel cell power and water output by covering the reacting surface with inert gas. This presentation documents an experimental investigation of methods to remove the helium pressurant while minimizing the amount of the oxygen lost. This investigation demonstrated that significant quantities of Helium (greater than 90% mole fraction) remain in the tank after draining. Although a single vent cycle reduced the helium quantity, large amounts of helium remained. Cyclic venting appeared to be more effective. Three vent cycles were sufficient to reduce the helium to small (less than 0.2%) quantities. Two vent cycles may be sufficient since once the tank has been brought up to pressure after the second vent cycle the helium concentration has been reduced to the less than 0.2% level. The re-pressurization process seemed to contribute to diluting helium. This is as expected since in order to raise the pressure liquid oxygen must be evaporated. Estimated liquid oxygen loss is on the order of 82 pounds (assuming the third vent cycle is not required).

Estimating Soil Organic Carbon Stocks and Spatial Patterns with Statistical and GIS-Based Methods

PubMed Central

Zhi, Junjun; Jing, Changwei; Lin, Shengpan; Zhang, Cao; Liu, Qiankun; DeGloria, Stephen D.; Wu, Jiaping

2014-01-01

Accurately quantifying soil organic carbon (SOC) is considered fundamental to studying soil quality, modeling the global carbon cycle, and assessing global climate change. This study evaluated the uncertainties caused by up-scaling of soil properties from the county scale to the provincial scale and from lower-level classification of Soil Species to Soil Group, using four methods: the mean, median, Soil Profile Statistics (SPS), and pedological professional knowledge based (PKB) methods. For the SPS method, SOC stock is calculated at the county scale by multiplying the mean SOC density value of each soil type in a county by its corresponding area. For the mean or median method, SOC density value of each soil type is calculated using provincial arithmetic mean or median. For the PKB method, SOC density value of each soil type is calculated at the county scale considering soil parent materials and spatial locations of all soil profiles. A newly constructed 1∶50,000 soil survey geographic database of Zhejiang Province, China, was used for evaluation. Results indicated that with soil classification levels up-scaling from Soil Species to Soil Group, the variation of estimated SOC stocks among different soil classification levels was obviously lower than that among different methods. The difference in the estimated SOC stocks among the four methods was lowest at the Soil Species level. The differences in SOC stocks among the mean, median, and PKB methods for different Soil Groups resulted from the differences in the procedure of aggregating soil profile properties to represent the attributes of one soil type. Compared with the other three estimation methods (i.e., the SPS, mean and median methods), the PKB method holds significant promise for characterizing spatial differences in SOC distribution because spatial locations of all soil profiles are considered during the aggregation procedure. PMID:24840890

Analysis of ProSEDS Test of Bare-Tether Collection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sanmartin, J. R.; Lorenzini, E. C.; Estes, R. D.; Charro, M.; Cosmo, M. L.

2003-01-01

NASA's tether experiment ProSEDS will be placed in orbit on board a Delta-II rocket to test bare-tether electron collection, deorbiting of the rocket second stage, and the system dynamic stability. ProSEDS performance will vary because ambient conditions change along the orbit and tether-circuit bulk elements at the cathodic end follow the step-by-step sequence for the current cycles of operating modes (open-circuit, shunt and resistor modes for primary cycles; shunt and battery modes for secondary cycles). In this work we discuss expected ProSEDS values of the ratio L,/L*, which jointly with cathodic bulk elements determines bias and current tether profiles; L, is tether length, and L* (changing with tether temperature and ionospheric plasma density and magnetic field) is a characteristic length gauging ohmic versus baretether collection impedances. We discuss how to test bare-tether electron collection during primary cycles, using probe measurements of plasma density, measurements of cathodic current in resistor and shunt modes, and an estimate of tether temperature based on ProSEDS orbital position at the particular cycle concerned. We discuss how a temperature misestimate might occasionally affect the test of bare-tether collection, and how introducing the battery mode in some primary cycles, for an additional current measurement, could obviate the need of a temperature estimate. We also show how to test bare-tether collection by estimating orbit-decay rate from measurements of cathodic current for the shunt and battery modes of secondary cycles.

Contribution of aboveground plant respiration to carbon cycling in a Bornean tropical rainforet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katayama, Ayumi; Tanaka, Kenzo; Ichie, Tomoaki; Kume, Tomonori; Matsumoto, Kazuho; Ohashi, Mizue; Kumagai, Tomo'omi

2014-05-01

Bornean tropical rainforests have a different characteristic from Amazonian tropical rainforests, that is, larger aboveground biomass caused by higher stand density of large trees. Larger biomass may cause different carbon cycling and allocation pattern. However, there are fewer studies on carbon allocation and each component in Bornean tropical rainforests, especially for aboveground plant respiration, compared to Amazonian forests. In this study, we measured woody tissue respiration and leaf respiration, and estimated those in ecosystem scale in a Bornean tropical rainforest. Then, we examined carbon allocation using the data of soil respiration and aboveground net primary production obtained from our previous studies. Woody tissue respiration rate was positively correlated with diameter at breast height (dbh) and stem growth rate. Using the relationships and biomass data, we estimated woody tissue respiration in ecosystem scale though methods of scaling resulted in different estimates values (4.52 - 9.33 MgC ha-1 yr-1). Woody tissue respiration based on surface area (8.88 MgC ha-1 yr-1) was larger than those in Amazon because of large aboveground biomass (563.0 Mg ha-1). Leaf respiration rate was positively correlated with height. Using the relationship and leaf area density data at each 5-m height, leaf respiration in ecosystem scale was estimated (9.46 MgC ha-1 yr-1), which was similar to those in Amazon because of comparable LAI (5.8 m2 m-2). Gross primary production estimated from biometric measurements (44.81 MgC ha-1 yr-1) was much higher than those in Amazon, and more carbon was allocated to woody tissue respiration and total belowground carbon flux. Large tree with dbh > 60cm accounted for about half of aboveground biomass and aboveground biomass increment. Soil respiration was also related to position of large trees, resulting in high soil respiration rate in this study site. Photosynthesis ability of top canopy for large trees was high and leaves for the large trees accounted for 30% of total, which can lead high GPP. These results suggest that large trees play considerable role in carbon cycling and make a distinctive carbon allocation in the Bornean tropical rainforest.

Solar cycle effect in SBUV/SBUV 2 ozone data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruzdev, Aleksandr

Effect of the 11-year solar cycle on stratospheric ozone is analyzed using the data of ozone measurements with SBUV/SBUV 2 instruments aboard Nimbus 7, NOAA 9, NOAA 11, NOAA 14, NOAA 16, and NOAA 17-NOAA 19 satellites for 1978-2012 (ftp://toms.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/sbuv/). High-resolution spectral and cross-spectral methods as well as the method of multiple linear regression were used for the analysis. The regression model takes into account the annual variation, the linear trend, the solar cycle effect and the effects on ozone of the products of the Pinatubo volcano eruption and the quasi-biennial oscillations in the equatorial stratospheric wind. The cross-spectral analysis of ozone concentration and 10.7 cm solar radio flux shows that, generally, 11-year ozone variations in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere lag behind while ozone variations in the low-latitude lower stratosphere lead the solar cycle. The phase shift between the ozone variations and the solar cycle reaches pi/2 in 35-40 km layer over the tropics and in the southern hemisphere lower stratosphere. Calculations show that taking into account the phase shift is especially important for correct estimation of the ozone response to the solar cycle in the tropical middle stratosphere. Local maxima of ozone sensitivity to the 11-year solar cycle are noted around a year below the stratopause (45-50 km), in 30-35 km layer in the middle stratosphere, and in the polar lower stratosphere. The sensitivity of the ozone response to the solar cycle for the whole period of 1978-2012 is less than that for the period of 1978-2003 which does not include the 24th solar cycle with anomalously small amplitude. The ozone response is seasonally dependent. Maximal amplitudes of the ozone response are characteristic for polar latitudes during winter-spring periods. For example ozone changes related to the solar cycle can reach 5% in the low and middle latitudes during the 1978-2012 period, while winter-spring ozone changes approach 8-9% in the Arctic lower mesosphere and lower stratosphere and 12% in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. These results point at an important role of atmospheric circulation in the response of the Earth atmosphere to the 11-year solar cycle.

Estimation of unsteady lift on a pitching airfoil from wake velocity surveys

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaman, K. B. M. Q.; Panda, J.; Rumsey, C. L.

1993-01-01

The results of a joint experimental and computational study on the flowfield over a periodically pitched NACA0012 airfoil, and the resultant lift variation, are reported in this paper. The lift variation over a cycle of oscillation, and hence the lift hysteresis loop, is estimated from the velocity distribution in the wake measured or computed for successive phases of the cycle. Experimentally, the estimated lift hysteresis loops are compared with available data from the literature as well as with limited force balance measurements. Computationally, the estimated lift variations are compared with the corresponding variation obtained from the surface pressure distribution. Four analytical formulations for the lift estimation from wake surveys are considered and relative successes of the four are discussed.

Forecasting the peak of the present solar activity cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamid, R. H.; Marzouk, B. A.

2018-06-01

Solar forecasting of the level of sun Activity is very important subject for all space programs. Most predictions are based on the physical conditions prevailing at or before the solar cycle minimum preceding the maximum in question. Our aim is to predict the maximum peak of cycle 24 using precursor techniques in particular those using spotless event, geomagnetic aamin. index and solar flux F10.7. Also prediction of exact date of the maximum (Tr) is taken in consideration. A study of variation over previous spotless event for cycles 7-23 and that for even cycles (8-22) are carried out for the prediction. Linear correlation between maximum of solar cycles (RM) and spotless event around the preceding minimum gives R24t = 88.4 with rise time Tr = 4.6 years. For the even cycles R24E = 77.9 with rise time Tr = 4.5 y's. Based on the average aamin. index for cycles (12-23), we estimate the expected amplitude for cycle 24 to be Raamin = 99.4 and 98.1 with time rise of Traamin = 4.04 & 4.3 years for both the total and even cycles in consecutive. The application of the data of solar flux F10.7 which cover only cycles (19-23) was taken in consideration and gives predicted maximum amplitude R24 10.7 = 126 with rise time Tr107 = 3.7 years, which are over estimation. Our result indicating to somewhat weaker of cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21-23.

Spatial multi-criteria decision analysis to predict suitability for African swine fever endemicity in Africa

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background African swine fever (ASF) is endemic in several countries of Africa and may pose a risk to all pig producing areas on the continent. Official ASF reporting is often rare and there remains limited awareness of the continent-wide distribution of the disease. In the absence of accurate ASF outbreak data and few quantitative studies on the epidemiology of the disease in Africa, we used spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to derive predictions of the continental distribution of suitability for ASF persistence in domestic pig populations as part of sylvatic or domestic transmission cycles. In order to incorporate the uncertainty in the relative importance of different criteria in defining suitability, we modelled decisions within the MCDA framework using a stochastic approach. The predictive performance of suitability estimates was assessed via a partial ROC analysis using ASF outbreak data reported to the OIE since 2005. Results Outputs from the spatial MCDA indicate that large areas of sub-Saharan Africa may be suitable for ASF persistence as part of either domestic or sylvatic transmission cycles. Areas with high suitability for pig to pig transmission (‘domestic cycles’) were estimated to occur throughout sub-Saharan Africa, whilst areas with high suitability for introduction from wildlife reservoirs (‘sylvatic cycles’) were found predominantly in East, Central and Southern Africa. Based on average AUC ratios from the partial ROC analysis, the predictive ability of suitability estimates for domestic cycles alone was considerably higher than suitability estimates for sylvatic cycles alone, or domestic and sylvatic cycles in combination. Conclusions This study provides the first standardised estimates of the distribution of suitability for ASF transmission associated with domestic and sylvatic cycles in Africa. We provide further evidence for the utility of knowledge-driven risk mapping in animal health, particularly in data-sparse environments. PMID:24406022

Cumulative birth rates with linked assisted reproductive technology cycles.

PubMed

Luke, Barbara; Brown, Morton B; Wantman, Ethan; Lederman, Avi; Gibbons, William; Schattman, Glenn L; Lobo, Rogerio A; Leach, Richard E; Stern, Judy E

2012-06-28

Live-birth rates after treatment with assisted reproductive technology have traditionally been reported on a per-cycle basis. For women receiving continued treatment, cumulative success rates are a more important measure. We linked data from cycles of assisted reproductive technology in the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology Clinic Outcome Reporting System database for the period from 2004 through 2009 to individual women in order to estimate cumulative live-birth rates. Conservative estimates assumed that women who did not return for treatment would not have a live birth; optimal estimates assumed that these women would have live-birth rates similar to those for women continuing treatment. The data were from 246,740 women, with 471,208 cycles and 140,859 live births. Live-birth rates declined with increasing maternal age and increasing cycle number with autologous, but not donor, oocytes. By the third cycle, the conservative and optimal estimates of live-birth rates with autologous oocytes had declined from 63.3% and 74.6%, respectively, for women younger than 31 years of age to 18.6% and 27.8% for those 41 or 42 years of age and to 6.6% and 11.3% for those 43 years of age or older. When donor oocytes were used, the rates were higher than 60% and 80%, respectively, for all ages. Rates were higher with blastocyst embryos (day of transfer, 5 or 6) than with cleavage embryos (day of transfer, 2 or 3). At the third cycle, the conservative and optimal estimates of cumulative live-birth rates were, respectively, 42.7% and 65.3% for transfer of cleavage embryos and 52.4% and 80.7% for transfer of blastocyst embryos when fresh autologous oocytes were used. Our results indicate that live-birth rates approaching natural fecundity can be achieved by means of assisted reproductive technology when there are favorable patient and embryo characteristics. Live-birth rates among older women are lower than those among younger women when autologous oocytes are used but are similar to the rates among young women when donor oocytes are used. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology.).

Biological variation in two Anopheles vestitipennis populations with different feeding preferences in southern Mexico.

PubMed

Ulloa, Armando; Rodríguez, Mario H; Arredondo-Jimenez, Juan I; Fernandez-Salas, Ildefonso

2005-12-01

The lengths of gonotrophic cycle and egg development and survival rate were studied in Anopheles vestitipennis collected in horse and human-baited traps in southern Mexico. The gonotrophic cycle duration was estimated using cross-correlation analysis, whereas the survival rate was assessed using a vertical method. Daily changes of parity rates gave significant correlation indices at 3 and 4 days in the zoophilic and anthropophilic populations, respectively. The minimum time required to develop mature eggs after blood feeding was 54 and 60 h, and the survival rate was 0.93 and 0.88 in zoophilic and anthropophilic female mosquito populations, respectively. These biological differences provide additional support for the existence of subpopulations with distinctive feeding preferences within An. vestitipennis in southern Mexico.

An Enhanced Non-Coherent Pre-Filter Design for Tracking Error Estimation in GNSS Receivers

PubMed Central

Luo, Zhibin; Ding, Jicheng; Zhao, Lin; Wu, Mouyan

2017-01-01

Tracking error estimation is of great importance in global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers. Any inaccurate estimation for tracking error will decrease the signal tracking ability of signal tracking loops and the accuracies of position fixing, velocity determination, and timing. Tracking error estimation can be done by traditional discriminator, or Kalman filter-based pre-filter. The pre-filter can be divided into two categories: coherent and non-coherent. This paper focuses on the performance improvements of non-coherent pre-filter. Firstly, the signal characteristics of coherent and non-coherent integration—which are the basis of tracking error estimation—are analyzed in detail. After that, the probability distribution of estimation noise of four-quadrant arctangent (ATAN2) discriminator is derived according to the mathematical model of coherent integration. Secondly, the statistical property of observation noise of non-coherent pre-filter is studied through Monte Carlo simulation to set the observation noise variance matrix correctly. Thirdly, a simple fault detection and exclusion (FDE) structure is introduced to the non-coherent pre-filter design, and thus its effective working range for carrier phase error estimation extends from (−0.25 cycle, 0.25 cycle) to (−0.5 cycle, 0.5 cycle). Finally, the estimation accuracies of discriminator, coherent pre-filter, and the enhanced non-coherent pre-filter are evaluated comprehensively through the carefully designed experiment scenario. The pre-filter outperforms traditional discriminator in estimation accuracy. In a highly dynamic scenario, the enhanced non-coherent pre-filter provides accuracy improvements of 41.6%, 46.4%, and 50.36% for carrier phase error, carrier frequency error, and code phase error estimation, respectively, when compared with coherent pre-filter. The enhanced non-coherent pre-filter outperforms the coherent pre-filter in code phase error estimation when carrier-to-noise density ratio is less than 28.8 dB-Hz, in carrier frequency error estimation when carrier-to-noise density ratio is less than 20 dB-Hz, and in carrier phase error estimation when carrier-to-noise density belongs to (15, 23) dB-Hz ∪ (26, 50) dB-Hz. PMID:29156581

Accelerometer-Based Method for Extracting Respiratory and Cardiac Gating Information for Dual Gating during Nuclear Medicine Imaging

PubMed Central

Pänkäälä, Mikko; Paasio, Ari

2014-01-01

Both respiratory and cardiac motions reduce the quality and consistency of medical imaging specifically in nuclear medicine imaging. Motion artifacts can be eliminated by gating the image acquisition based on the respiratory phase and cardiac contractions throughout the medical imaging procedure. Electrocardiography (ECG), 3-axis accelerometer, and respiration belt data were processed and analyzed from ten healthy volunteers. Seismocardiography (SCG) is a noninvasive accelerometer-based method that measures accelerations caused by respiration and myocardial movements. This study was conducted to investigate the feasibility of the accelerometer-based method in dual gating technique. The SCG provides accelerometer-derived respiratory (ADR) data and accurate information about quiescent phases within the cardiac cycle. The correct information about the status of ventricles and atria helps us to create an improved estimate for quiescent phases within a cardiac cycle. The correlation of ADR signals with the reference respiration belt was investigated using Pearson correlation. High linear correlation was observed between accelerometer-based measurement and reference measurement methods (ECG and Respiration belt). Above all, due to the simplicity of the proposed method, the technique has high potential to be applied in dual gating in clinical cardiac positron emission tomography (PET) to obtain motion-free images in the future. PMID:25120563

Analysis of top-down and bottom-up North American CO2 and CH4 emissions estimates in the second State of the Carbon Cycle Report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, J. B.; Jacobson, A. R.; Bruhwiler, L.; Michalak, A.; Hayes, D. J.; Vargas, R.

2017-12-01

In just ten years since publication of the original State of the Carbon Cycle Report in 2007, global CO2 concentrations have risen by more than 22 ppm to 405 ppm. This represents 18% of the increase over preindustrial levels of 280 ppm. This increase is being driven unequivocally by fossil fuel combustion with North American emissions comprising roughly 20% of the global total over the past decade. At the global scale, we know by comparing well-known fossil fuel inventories and rates of atmospheric CO2 increase that about half of all emissions are absorbed at Earth's surface. For North America, however, we can not apply a simple mass balance to determine sources and sinks. Instead, contributions from ecosystems must be estimated using top-down and bottom-up methods. SOCCR-2 estimates North American net CO2 uptake from ecosystems using bottom-up (inventory) methods as 577 +/- 433 TgC/yr and 634 +/- 288 TgC/yr from top-down atmospheric inversions. Although the global terrestrial carbon sink is not precisely known, these values represent possibly 30% of the global values. As with net sink estimates reported in SOCCR, these new top-down and bottom-up estimates are statistically consistent with one another. However, the uncertainties on each of these estimates are now substantially smaller, giving us more confidence about where the truth lies. Atmospheric inversions also yield estimates of interannual variations (IAV) in CO2 and CH4 fluxes. Our syntheses suggest that IAV of ecosystem CO2 fluxes is of order 100 TgC/yr, mainly originating in the conterminous US, with lower variability in boreal and arctic regions. Moreover, this variability is much larger than for inventory-based fluxes reported by the US to the UNFCCC. Unlike CO2, bottom-up CH4 emissions are larger than those derived from large-scale atmospheric data, with the continental discrepancy resulting primarily from differences in arctic and boreal regions. In addition to the current state of the science, we will also discuss the primary sources of uncertainty and how existing and emerging measurement and modeling technologies can address them.

Measuring exertion time, duty cycle and hand activity level for industrial tasks using computer vision.

PubMed

Akkas, Oguz; Lee, Cheng Hsien; Hu, Yu Hen; Harris Adamson, Carisa; Rempel, David; Radwin, Robert G

2017-12-01

Two computer vision algorithms were developed to automatically estimate exertion time, duty cycle (DC) and hand activity level (HAL) from videos of workers performing 50 industrial tasks. The average DC difference between manual frame-by-frame analysis and the computer vision DC was -5.8% for the Decision Tree (DT) algorithm, and 1.4% for the Feature Vector Training (FVT) algorithm. The average HAL difference was 0.5 for the DT algorithm and 0.3 for the FVT algorithm. A sensitivity analysis, conducted to examine the influence that deviations in DC have on HAL, found it remained unaffected when DC error was less than 5%. Thus, a DC error less than 10% will impact HAL less than 0.5 HAL, which is negligible. Automatic computer vision HAL estimates were therefore comparable to manual frame-by-frame estimates. Practitioner Summary: Computer vision was used to automatically estimate exertion time, duty cycle and hand activity level from videos of workers performing industrial tasks.

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suggs, Ron

2017-01-01

The Natural Environments Branch of the Engineering Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides solar cycle forecasts for NASA space flight programs and the aerospace community. These forecasts provide future statistical estimates of sunspot number, solar radio 10.7 cm flux (F10.7), and the geomagnetic planetary index, Ap, for input to various space environment models. For example, many thermosphere density computer models used in spacecraft operations, orbital lifetime analysis, and the planning of future spacecraft missions require as inputs the F10.7 and Ap. The solar forecast is updated each month by executing MSAFE using historical and the latest month's observed solar indices to provide estimates for the balance of the current solar cycle. The forecasted solar indices represent the 13-month smoothed values consisting of a best estimate value stated as a 50 percentile value along with approximate +/- 2 sigma values stated as 95 and 5 percentile statistical values. This presentation will give an overview of the MSAFE model and the forecast for the current solar cycle.

Dealing with Emergy Algebra in the Life Cycle Assessment Framework

EPA Science Inventory

The Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) represents one of the four steps of the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, which is a standardized procedure (ISO 14040:2006) to estimate the environmental impacts generated by the production, use and disposal of goods and services. In this co...

Including exposure variability in the life cycle impact assessment of indoor chemical emissions: the case of metal degreasing.

PubMed

Golsteijn, Laura; Huizer, Daan; Hauck, Mara; van Zelm, Rosalie; Huijbregts, Mark A J

2014-10-01

The present paper describes a method that accounts for variation in indoor chemical exposure settings and accompanying human toxicity in life cycle assessment (LCA). Metal degreasing with dichloromethane was used as a case study to show method in practice. We compared the human toxicity related to the degreasing of 1m(2) of metal surface in different exposure scenarios for industrial workers, professional users outside industrial settings, and home consumers. The fraction of the chemical emission that is taken in by exposed individuals (i.e. the intake fraction) was estimated on the basis of operational conditions (e.g. exposure duration), and protective measures (e.g. local exhaust ventilation). The introduction of a time-dependency and a correction for protective measures resulted in reductions in the intake fraction of up to 1.5 orders of magnitude, compared to application of existing, less advanced models. In every exposure scenario, the life cycle impacts for human toxicity were mainly caused by indoor exposure to metal degreaser (>60%). Emissions released outdoors contributed up to 22% of the life cycle impacts for human toxicity, and the production of metal degreaser contributed up to 19%. These findings illustrate that human toxicity from indoor chemical exposure should not be disregarded in LCA case studies. Particularly when protective measures are taken or in the case of a short duration (1h or less), we recommend the use of our exposure scenario-specific approach. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Life cycle assessment study of a Chinese desktop personal computer.

PubMed

Duan, Huabo; Eugster, Martin; Hischier, Roland; Streicher-Porte, Martin; Li, Jinhui

2009-02-15

Associated with the tremendous prosperity in world electronic information and telecommunication industry, there continues to be an increasing awareness of the environmental impacts related to the accelerating mass production, electricity use, and waste management of electronic and electric products (e-products). China's importance as both a consumer and supplier of e-products has grown at an unprecedented pace in recent decade. Hence, this paper aims to describe the application of life cycle assessment (LCA) to investigate the environmental performance of Chinese e-products from a global level. A desktop personal computer system has been selected to carry out a detailed and modular LCA which follows the ISO 14040 series. The LCA is constructed by SimaPro software version 7.0 and expressed with the Eco-indicator'99 life cycle impact assessment method. For a sensitivity analysis of the overall LCA results, the so-called CML method is used in order to estimate the influence of the choice of the assessment method on the result. Life cycle inventory information is complied by ecoinvent 1.3 databases, combined with literature and field investigations on the present Chinese situation. The established LCA study shows that that the manufacturing and the use of such devices are of the highest environmental importance. In the manufacturing of such devices, the integrated circuits (ICs) and the Liquid Crystal Display (LCD) are those parts contributing most to the impact. As no other aspects are taken into account during the use phase, the impact is due to the way how the electricity is produced. The final process steps--i.e. the end of life phase--lead to a clear environmental benefit if a formal and modern, up-to-date technical system is assumed, like here in this study.