Pegasus XL CYGNSS Launch Attempt; Scrubbed - Take Off

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-12

An Orbital ATK L-1011 Stargazer aircraft carrying a Pegasus XL Rocket with eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft takes off from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida. With the aircraft flying off shore, the Pegasus rocket will be released. Five seconds later, the solid propellant engine will ignite and boost the eight hurricane observatories to orbit. The eight CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Estimating Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Field Parameters with the CYGNSS Constellation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morris, M.; Ruf, C. S.

2016-12-01

A variety of parameters can be used to describe the wind field of a tropical cyclone (TC). Of particular interest to the TC forecasting and research community are the maximum sustained wind speed (VMAX), radius of maximum wind (RMW), 34-, 50-, and 64-kt wind radii, and integrated kinetic energy (IKE). The RMW is the distance separating the storm center and the VMAX position. IKE integrates the square of surface wind speed over the entire storm. These wind field parameters can be estimated from observations made by the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) constellation. The CYGNSS constellation consists of eight small satellites in a 35-degree inclination circular orbit. These satellites will be operating in standard science mode by the 2017 Atlantic TC season. CYGNSS will provide estimates of ocean surface wind speed under all precipitating conditions with high temporal and spatial sampling in the tropics. TC wind field data products can be derived from the level-2 CYGNSS wind speed product. CYGNSS-based TC wind field science data products are developed and tested in this paper. Performance of these products is validated using a mission simulator prelaunch.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Second Launch Attempt

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-15

In the Mission Director's Center at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Andy Bundy, Avionics lead, left, and Pat Simpkins, director of Kennedy Space Center Engineering, monitor the progress of preparations to launch eight Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. The CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a crucial role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Second Launch Attempt

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-15

In the Mission Director's Center at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Greg Robinson, deputy associate administrator for Programs in the NASA Science Mission Directorate, right, congratulates, Tim Dunn, who was launch director for launch of eight Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. The satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a crucial role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Second Launch Attempt

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-15

In the Mission Director's Center at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Dana Allender, NASA Launch Operations manager, left, and Aly Mendoza-Hill, NASA Mission manager, monitor the progress of preparations to launch eight Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. The CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a crucial role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Second Launch Attempt

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-15

In the Mission Director's Center at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Kennedy Space Center Director Bob Cabana, right, congratulates, Omar Baez, a senior launch director in NASA's Launch Services Program, after the successful launch of eight Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. The satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a crucial role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Second Launch Attempt

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-15

A pathfinder aircraft gains altitude after takeoff from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. The airplane will provide photographic and video imagery of the Orbital ATK L-1011 Stargazer aircraft carrying a Pegasus XL Rocket with eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. With the aircraft flying off shore, the Pegasus rocket will be released. Five seconds later, the solid propellant engine will ignite and boost the eight hurricane observatories to orbit. The eight CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Second Launch Attempt

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-15

A pathfinder aircraft begins its takeoff from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. The airplane will provide photographic and video imagery of the Orbital ATK L-1011 Stargazer aircraft carrying a Pegasus XL Rocket with eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. With the aircraft flying off shore, the Pegasus rocket will be released. Five seconds later, the solid propellant engine will ignite and boost the eight hurricane observatories to orbit. The eight CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Second Launch Attempt

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-15

A pathfinder aircraft touches down at the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. The airplane provided photographic and video imagery of the Orbital ATK L-1011 Stargazer aircraft carrying a Pegasus XL Rocket with eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. With the aircraft flying off shore, the Pegasus rocket was released at 8:37 a.m. EST. Five seconds later, the solid propellant engine ignited and boosted the eight hurricane observatories to orbit. The eight CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Second Launch Attempt

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-15

An Orbital ATK L-1011 Stargazer aircraft carrying a Pegasus XL Rocket with eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, soars high after takeoff from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida. With the aircraft flying off shore, the Pegasus rocket will be released. Five seconds later, the solid propellant engine will ignite and boost the eight hurricane observatories to orbit. The eight CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. Release of the Pegasus XL rocket is scheduled for 8:40 a.m. EST.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Second Launch Attempt

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-15

A pathfinder aircraft takes off from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. The airplane will provide photographic and video imagery of the Orbital ATK L-1011 Stargazer aircraft carrying a Pegasus XL Rocket with eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. With the aircraft flying off shore, the Pegasus rocket will be released. Five seconds later, the solid propellant engine will ignite and boost the eight hurricane observatories to orbit. The eight CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Launch Attempt - Prepared for Takeoff - Scrubb

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-12

A pathfinder aircraft prepares for takeoff from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. The airplane will provide photographic and video imagery of the Orbital ATK L-1011 Stargazer aircraft carrying a Pegasus XL Rocket with eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. With the aircraft flying off shore, the Pegasus rocket will be released. Five seconds later, the solid propellant engine will ignite and boost the eight hurricane observatories to orbit. The eight CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Second Launch Attempt

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-15

A pathfinder aircraft soars high after takeoff from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. The airplane will provide photographic and video imagery of the Orbital ATK L-1011 Stargazer aircraft carrying a Pegasus XL Rocket with eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. With the aircraft flying off shore, the Pegasus rocket will be released. Five seconds later, the solid propellant engine will ignite and boost the eight hurricane observatories to orbit. The eight CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Second Launch Attempt

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-15

An Orbital ATK L-1011 Stargazer aircraft descends toward the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. The aircraft carried a Pegasus XL Rocket with eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, for launch. With the aircraft flying off shore, the Pegasus rocket was released. Five seconds later, the solid propellant engine ignited and boosted the eight hurricane observatories to orbit. The eight CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. Release of the Pegasus XL rocket occurred at 8:37 a.m. EST.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Second Launch Attempt

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-15

A pathfinder aircraft descends for touchdown at the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. The airplane provided photographic and video imagery of the Orbital ATK L-1011 Stargazer aircraft carrying a Pegasus XL Rocket with eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. With the aircraft flying off shore, the Pegasus rocket was released at 8:37 a.m. EST. Five seconds later, the solid propellant engine ignited and boosted the eight hurricane observatories to orbit. The eight CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean: experiments with the high-resolution global icosahedral grid point model GME

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumkar, Yogesh V.; Sen, P. N.; Chaudhari, Hemankumar S.; Oh, Jai-Ho

2018-02-01

In this paper, an attempt has been made to conduct a numerical experiment with the high-resolution global model GME to predict the tropical storms in the North Indian Ocean during the year 2007. Numerical integrations using the icosahedral hexagonal grid point global model GME were performed to study the evolution of tropical cyclones, viz., Akash, Gonu, Yemyin and Sidr over North Indian Ocean during 2007. It has been seen that the GME model forecast underestimates cyclone's intensity, but the model can capture the evolution of cyclone's intensity especially its weakening during landfall, which is primarily due to the cutoff of the water vapor supply in the boundary layer as cyclones approach the coastal region. A series of numerical simulation of tropical cyclones have been performed with GME to examine model capability in prediction of intensity and track of the cyclones. The model performance is evaluated by calculating the root mean square errors as cyclone track errors.

Global view of the upper level outflow patterns associated with tropical cyclone intensity changes during FGGE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, L.; Gray, W. M.

1985-01-01

The characteristics of the upper tropospheric outflow patterns which occur with tropical cyclone intensification and weakening over all of the global tropical cyclone basins during the year long period of the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) are discussed. By intensification is meant the change in the tropical cyclone's maximum wind or central pressure, not the change of the cyclone's outer 1 to 3 deg radius mean wind which we classify as cyclone strength. All the 80 tropical cyclones which existed during the FGGE year are studied. Two-hundred mb wind fields are derived from the analysis of the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) which makes extensive use of upper tropospheric satellite and aircraft winds. Corresponding satellite cloud pictures from the polar orbiting U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and other supplementary polar and geostationary satellite data are also used.

The NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS): A Constellation of Bi-static Ocean Scatterometer Microsatellites to Probe the Inner Core of Hurricanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruf, C. S.; Clarizia, M. P.; Ridley, A. J.; Gleason, S.; O'Brien, A.

2014-12-01

The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) is the first NASA Earth Ventures spaceborne mission. CYGNSS consists of a constellation of eight small observatories carried into orbit on a single launch vehicle. The eight satellites comprise a constellation that flies closely together to measure the ocean surface wind field with unprecedented temporal resolution and spatial coverage, under all precipitating conditions, and over the full dynamic range of wind speeds experienced in a TC. The 8 CYGNSS observatories will fly in 500 km circular orbits at a common inclination of ~35°. Each observatory includes a Delay Doppler Mapping Instrument (DDMI) consisting of a modified GPS receiver capable of measuring surface scattering, a low gain zenith antenna for measurement of the direct GPS signal, and two high gain nadir antennas for measurement of the weaker scattered signal. Each DDMI is capable of measuring 4 simultaneous bi-static reflections, resulting in a total of 32 wind measurements per second across the globe by the full constellation. Simulation studies will be presented which examine the sampling as functions of various orbit parameters of the constellation. For comparison purposes, a similar analysis is conducted using the sampling of several past and present conventional spaceborne ocean wind scatterometers. Differences in the ability of the sensors to resolve the evolution of the TC inner core will be examined. The CYGNSS observatories are currently in Phase C development. An update on the current status of the mission will be presented, including the expected precision, accuracy and spatial and temporal sampling properties of the retrieved winds.

Tropical Cyclone Reconnaissance with the Global Hawk: Operational Thresholds and Characteristics of Convective Systems Over the Tropical Western North Pacific

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

Tropical cyclone research is an intense ongoing science that has acquired even greater importance in this era of global climate change . Increased study of...RECONNAISSANCE WITH THE GLOBAL HAWK: OPERATIONAL THRESHOLDS AND CHARACTERISTICS OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER THE TROPICAL WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC by...TROPICAL CYCLONE RECONNAISSANCE WITH THE GLOBAL HAWK: OPERATIONAL THRESHOLDS AND CHARACTERISTICS OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER THE TROPICAL WESTERN

Impact of CYGNSS Data on Tropical Cyclone Analyses and Forecasts in a Regional OSSE Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Annane, B.; McNoldy, B. D.; Leidner, S. M.; Atlas, R. M.; Hoffman, R.; Majumdar, S.

2016-12-01

The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, is a planned constellation of micro-satellites that will utilize reflected Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite signals to retrieve ocean surface wind speed along the satellites' ground tracks. The orbits are designed so that there is excellent coverage of the tropics and subtropics, resulting in more thorough spatial sampling and improved sampling intervals over tropical cyclones than is possible with current spaceborne scatterometer and passive microwave sensor platforms. Furthermore, CYGNSS will be able to retrieve winds under all precipitating conditions, and over a large range of wind speeds.A regional Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) framework was developed at NOAA/AOML and University of Miami that features a high-resolution regional nature run (27-km regional domain with 9/3/1 km storm-following nests; Nolan et al., 2013) embedded within a lower-resolution global nature run . Simulated observations are generated by sampling from the nature run and are provided to a data assimilation scheme, which produces analyses for a high-resolution regional forecast model, the 2014 operational Hurricane-WRF model. For data assimilation, NOAA's GSI and EnKF systems are used. Analyses are performed on the parent domain at 9-km resolution. The forecast model uses a single storm-following 3-km resolution nest. Synthetic CYGNSS wind speed data have also been created, and the impacts of the assimilation of these data on the forecasts of tropical cyclone track and intensity will be discussed.In addition to the choice of assimilation scheme, we have also examined a number of other factors/parameters that effect the impact of simulated CYGNSS observations, including frequency of data assimilation cycling (e.g., hourly, 3-hourly and 6-hourly) and the assimilation of scalar versus vector synthetic CYGNSS winds.We have found sensitivity to all of the factors tested and will summarize the methods used for testing as well as results. Generally, we have found that more frequent cycling is better than less; and flow-dependent background error covariances (e.g., EnKF) are better than static or climatological assumptions about the background error covariance.

NASA CYGNSS Mission Applications Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amin, Aimee V. (Compiler); Murray, John J. (Editor); Stough, Timothy M. (Editor); Molthan, Andrew (Editor)

2015-01-01

NASA's Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, (CYGNSS), mission is a constellation of eight microsatellites that will measure surface winds in and near the inner cores of hurricanes, including regions beneath the eyewall and intense inner rainbands that could not previously be measured from space. The CYGNSS-measured wind fields, when combined with precipitation fields (e.g., produced by the Global Precipitation Measurement [GPM] core satellite and its constellation of precipitation imagers), will provide coupled observations of moist atmospheric thermodynamics and ocean surface response, enabling new insights into hurricane inner core dynamics and energetics. The outcomes of this workshop, which are detailed in this report, comprise two primary elements: (1) A report of workshop proceedings, and; (2) Detailed Applications Traceability Matrices with requirements and operational considerations to serve broadly for development of value-added tools, applications, and products.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Second Launch Attempt

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-15

Photographed from the F-18 pathfinder aircraft, the Orbital ATK L-1011 Stargazer aircraft is seen flying over the Atlantic Ocean offshore from Daytona Beach, Florida. Attached beneath the aircraft is the Pegasus XL rocket with eight Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. The CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a crucial role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Second Launch Attempt, Drop & Launch of Rocket

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-15

The Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket carrying NASA's Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft is released and the first stage ignites at 8:37 a.m. EST. The rocket was released from the Orbital ATK L-1011 Stargazer aircraft flying over the Atlantic Ocean offshore from Daytona Beach, Florida following takeoff from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. This image was taken from a NASA F-18 chase plane provided by Armstrong Flight Research Center in California. The CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Second Launch Attempt

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-15

A pathfinder aircraft, at left, prepares for takeoff from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. The airplane will provide photographic and video imagery of the Orbital ATK L-1011 Stargazer aircraft, in view at right, carrying a Pegasus XL Rocket with eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. With the aircraft flying off shore, the Pegasus rocket will be released. Five seconds later, the solid propellant engine will ignite and boost the eight hurricane observatories to orbit. The eight CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century

PubMed Central

Emanuel, Kerry A.

2013-01-01

A recently developed technique for simulating large [O(104)] numbers of tropical cyclones in climate states described by global gridded data is applied to simulations of historical and future climate states simulated by six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate models. Tropical cyclones downscaled from the climate of the period 1950–2005 are compared with those of the 21st century in simulations that stipulate that the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases increases by over preindustrial values. In contrast to storms that appear explicitly in most global models, the frequency of downscaled tropical cyclones increases during the 21st century in most locations. The intensity of such storms, as measured by their maximum wind speeds, also increases, in agreement with previous results. Increases in tropical cyclone activity are most prominent in the western North Pacific, but are evident in other regions except for the southwestern Pacific. The increased frequency of events is consistent with increases in a genesis potential index based on monthly mean global model output. These results are compared and contrasted with other inferences concerning the effect of global warming on tropical cyclones. PMID:23836646

Citizen scientists analyzing tropical cyclone intensities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hennon, Christopher C.

2012-10-01

A new crowd sourcing project called CycloneCenter enables the public to analyze historical global tropical cyclone (TC) intensities. The primary goal of CycloneCenter, which launched in mid-September, is to resolve discrepancies in the recent global TC record arising principally from inconsistent development of tropical cyclone intensity data. The historical TC record is composed of data sets called "best tracks," which contain a forecast agency's best assessment of TC tracks and intensities. Best track data have improved in quality since the beginning of the geostationary satellite era in the 1960s (because TCs could no longer disappear from sight). However, a global compilation of best track data (International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS)) has brought to light large interagency differences between some TC best track intensities, even in the recent past [Knapp et al., 2010Knapp et al., 2010]. For example, maximum wind speed estimates for Tropical Cyclone Gay (1989) differed by as much as 70 knots as it was tracked by three different agencies.

The SGR-ReSI and its application for GNSS reflectometry on the NASA EV-2 CYGNSS mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unwin, M.; Jales, P.; Blunt, P.; Duncan, S.; Brummitt, M.; Ruf, C.

As part of the EV-2 Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) mission team, Surrey will be providing the Delay Doppler Mapping Instrument (DDMI) for eight Observatories designed and built by the University of Michigan and Southwest Research Institute (SwRI). Following the success of the GPS Reflectometry Experiment on the UK-DMC 1 satellite launched in 2003, Surrey has developed the SGR-ReSI as a move towards operational reflectometry and other applications. The Space GPS Receiver Remote Sensing Instrument (SGR-ReSI) is a COTS-electronics based GNSS receiver which can support up to eight programmable front-ends. It allows collection of raw sampled data but also is capable of processing the reflections into Delay Doppler Maps in real time. The first flight of the SGR-ReSI will be on the UK TechDemoSat-1 to prove the instrument and its various applications. The SGR-ReSI on CYGNSS has a different configuration to that on TechDemoSat-1 which is needed to focus on the requirements for operational cyclone sensing.

The NASA CYGNSS Small Satellite Constellation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruf, C. S.; Gleason, S.; McKague, D. S.; Rose, R.; Scherrer, J.

2017-12-01

The NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) is a constellation of eight microsatellite observatories that was launched into a low (35°) inclination, low Earth orbit on 15 December 2016. Each observatory carries a 4-channel GNSS-R bistatic radar receiver. The radars are tuned to receive the L1 signals transmitted by GPS satellites, from which near-surface ocean wind speed is estimated. The mission architecture is designed to improve the temporal sampling of winds in tropical cyclones (TCs). The 32 receive channels of the complete CYGNSS constellation, combined with the 30 GPS satellite transmitters, results in a revisit time for sampling of the wind of 2.8 hours (median) and 7.2 hours (mean) at all locations between 38 deg North and 38 deg South latitude. Operation at the GPS L1 frequency of 1575 MHz allows for wind measurements in the TC inner core that are often obscured from other spaceborne remote sensing instruments by intense precipitation in the eye wall and inner rain bands. An overview of the CYGNSS mission wil be presented, followed by early on-orbit status and results.

Tropical cyclones in a stabilized 1.5 and 2 degree warmer world.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehner, M. F.; Stone, D. A.; Loring, B.; Krishnan, H.

2017-12-01

We present an ensemble of very high resolution global climate model simulations of a stabilized 1.5oC and 2oC warmer climate as envisioned by the Paris COP21 agreement. The resolution of this global climate model (25km) permits simulated tropical cyclones up to Category Five on the Saffir-Simpson scale Projected changes in tropical cyclones are significant. Tropical cyclones in the two stabilization scenarios are less frequent but more intense than in simulations of the present. Output data from these simulations is freely available to all interested parties and should prove a useful resource to those interested in studying the impacts of stabilized global warming.

Statistical Aspects of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones: Trends, Natural Variability, and Global Warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2007-01-01

Statistical aspects of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the interval 1945- 2005 are examined, including the variation of the yearly frequency of occurrence for various subgroups of storms (all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, major hurricanes, U.S. landfalling hurricanes, and category 4/5 hurricanes); the yearly variation of the mean latitude and longitude (genesis location) of all tropical cyclones and hurricanes; and the yearly variation of the mean peak wind speeds, lowest pressures, and durations for all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Also examined is the relationship between inferred trends found in the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity and natural variability and global warming, the latter described using surface air temperatures from the Armagh Observatory Armagh, Northern Ireland. Lastly, a simple statistical technique is employed to ascertain the expected level of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity for the upcoming 2007 season.

Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature

PubMed Central

Lin, Yanluan; Zhao, Ming; Zhang, Minghua

2015-01-01

Tropical cyclone rainfall rates have been projected to increase in a warmer climate. The area coverage of tropical cyclones influences their impact on human lives, yet little is known about how tropical cyclone rainfall area will change in the future. Here, using satellite data and global atmospheric model simulations, we show that tropical cyclone rainfall area is controlled primarily by its environmental sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the tropical mean SST (that is, the relative SST), while rainfall rate increases with increasing absolute SST. Our result is consistent with previous numerical simulations that indicated tight relationships between tropical cyclone size and mid-tropospheric relative humidity. Global statistics of tropical cyclone rainfall area are not expected to change markedly under a warmer climate provided that SST change is relatively uniform, implying that increases in total rainfall will be confined to similar size domains with higher rainfall rates. PMID:25761457

Characterization and assessment of different algorithms for retrieval of mean square slopes from GNSS-R measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarizia, Maria Paola; Ruf, Christopher; Gommenginger, Christine

2013-04-01

Global Navigation Satellite System-Reflectometry (GNSS-R) exploits signals of opportunity from navigation constellations (e.g. GPS, GLONASS, Galileo), scattered by the surface of the ocean, to retrieve the surface wind and wave fields. GNSS-R represents a true innovation in remote sensing, and it is receiving a growing interest from the scientific community. Its main advantages lie in the dense space-time sampling capabilities, the ability of L-band signals to penetrate well through rain, and the possibility of simple, low-cost/low-power GNSS receivers. These recognized strengths of GNSS-R recently led to the approval of the NASA EV-2 Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS), a spaceborne mission focused on tropical cyclone (TC) inner core process studies. CYGNSS attempts to resolve the problem of inadequate observations and modeling of the inner core, which represents the principal deficiency with current TC intensity forecasts, and which can be overcome with GNSS-R. The present study focuses on the information content about the sea surface roughness and wind speed, that is contained in spaceborne GNSS-R Delay-Doppler Maps (DDMs). A number of algorithms for the retrieval of Mean Square Slopes (MSS) - representative of the surface roughness - are analyzed. These include existing algorithms based on least-square fitting procedures (e.g. 2D least-square fitting of DDMs, using the Zavorotny-Voronovich DDM theoretical model), or based on direct observables (e.g. DDM volume), as well as "new" algorithms, which make use of waveforms derived from the DDM, which have thusfar been unexploited (e.g. integrated delay and Doppler waveforms). The analysis is carried out using simulated DDMs generated by the mature forward model end-to-end simulator developed for CYGNSS. A comparison of the results obtained for different retrieval algorithms will be presented. In particular, the performance of the algorithms considered is investigated and characterized for the case of significant non-uniform wind field across the scattering area, such as will be encountered in and near tropical cyclones. The impact of each algorithm, as well as of other parameters (e.g. the extent of the DDM), on the sensitivity of the results to non-uniform winds will be presented. The results are directly relevant to CYGNSS, where the ultimate objective is to produce standard gridded maps of retrieved wind fields from raw DDM measurements. The value of this research is twofold, in that it addresses the choice of the best algorithms to retrieve MSS and ultimately wind speed in extreme and non-uniform wind conditions, and also provides a first assessment of the data compression requirements and strategies that will be applied to DDMs for the CYGNSS mission.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Prelaunch News Conference

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-10

In the Kennedy Space Center’s Press Site auditorium, NASA and industry leaders speak to members of the media during a prelaunch news conference for the agency’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. The model depicts the deployment module from which the eight micro-satellites will be deployed. In the background is Tim Dunn, NASA launch director at Kennedy. The CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data will help scientists probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a crucial role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Prelaunch News Conference

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-10

In the Kennedy Space Center’s Press Site auditorium, NASA and industry leaders speak to members of the media during a prelaunch news conference for the agency’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. From left are: Tim Dunn, NASA launch director at Kennedy; and Bryan Baldwin, Pegasus launch vehicle program manager for Orbital ATK, Dulles, Virginia. The eight CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data will help scientists probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a crucial role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Trends in Northern Hemisphere surface cyclone frequency and intensity

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Clark, M.P.; Serreze, Mark C.

2001-01-01

One of the hypothesized effects of global warming from increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is a change in the frequency and/or intensity of extratropical cyclones. In this study, winter frequencies and intensities of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere for the period 1959-97 are examined to determine if identifiable trends are occurring. Results indicate a statistically significant decrease in midlatitude cyclone frequency and a significant increase in high-latitude cyclone frequency. In addition, storm intensity has increased in both the high and midlatitudes. The changes in storm frequency correlate with changes in winter Northern Hemisphere temperature and support hypotheses that global warming may result in a northward shift of storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere.

Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Over the Past 30 Years: A Global and Dynamic Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Liguang; Wang, Bin; Braun, Scott A.

2006-01-01

The hurricane season of 2005 was the busiest on record and Hurricane Katrina (2005) is believed to be the costliest hurricane in U. S. history. There are growing concerns regarding whether this increased tropical cyclone activity is a result of global warming, as suggested by Emanuel(2005) and Webster et al. (2005), or just a natural oscillation (Goldenberg et al. 2001). This study examines the changes in tropical cyclone intensity to see what were really responsible for the changes in tropical cyclone activity over the past 30 years. Since the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) warming also leads to the response of atmospheric circulation, which is not solely determined by the local SST warming, this study suggests that it is better to take the tropical cyclone activities in the North Atlantic (NA), western North Pacific (WNP) and eastern North Pacific (ENP) basins as a whole when searching for the influence of the global-scale SST warming on tropical cyclone intensity. Over the past 30 years, as the tropical SST increased by about 0.5 C, the linear trends indicate 6%, 16% and 15% increases in the overall average intensity and lifetime and the annual frequency. Our analysis shows that the increased annual destructiveness of tropical cyclones reported by Emanuel(2005) resulted mainly from the increases in the average lifetime and annual frequency in the NA basin and from the increases in the average intensity and lifetime in the WNP basin, while the annual destructiveness in the ENP basin generally decreased over the past 30 years. The changes in the proportion of intense tropical cyclones reported by Webster et a1 (2005) were due mainly to the fact that increasing tropical cyclones took the tracks that favor for the development of intense tropical cyclones in the NA and WNP basins over the past 30 years. The dynamic influence associated with the tropical SST warming can lead to the impact of global warming on tropical cyclone intensity that may be very different from our current assessments, which were mainly based on the thermodynamic theory of tropical cyclone intensity.

An evaluation of the real-time tropical cyclone forecast skill of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System in the western North Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fiorino, Michael; Goerss, James S.; Jensen, Jack J.; Harrison, Edward J., Jr.

1993-01-01

The paper evaluates the meteorological quality and operational utility of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) in forecasting tropical cyclones. It is shown that the model can provide useful predictions of motion and formation on a real-time basis in the western North Pacific. The meterological characteristics of the NOGAPS tropical cyclone predictions are evaluated by examining the formation of low-level cyclone systems in the tropics and vortex structure in the NOGAPS analysis and verifying 72-h forecasts. The adjusted NOGAPS track forecasts showed equitable skill to the baseline aid and the dynamical model. NOGAPS successfully predicted unusual equatorward turns for several straight-running cyclones.

Tropical Cyclone Genesis and Sudden Changes of Track and Intensity in the Western Pacific

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-30

North Atlantic . (Published in 2008) Our work on the effect of internally generated inner-core asymmetries on tropical cyclone potential intensity has...of the atmospheric circulation in TC basins to the global warming is more critical than increasing SST to understanding the impacts of global warming...Japan and its adjacent seas is studied with WRF model. The results suggest that the northward moisture transport through the outer cyclonic circulation

Analysis and modeling of tropical convection observed by CYGNSS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lang, T. J.; Li, X.; Roberts, J. B.; Mecikalski, J. R.

2017-12-01

The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) is a multi-satellite constellation that utilizes Global Positioning System (GPS) reflectometry to retrieve near-surface wind speeds over the ocean. While CYGNSS is primarily aimed at measuring wind speeds in tropical cyclones, our research has established that the mission may also provide valuable insight into the relationships between wind-driven surface fluxes and general tropical oceanic convection. Currently, we are examining organized tropical convection using a mixture of CYGNSS level 1 through level 3 data, IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement), and other ancillary datasets (including buoys, GPM level 1 and 2 data, as well as ground-based radar). In addition, observing system experiments (OSEs) are being performed using hybrid three-dimensional variational assimilation to ingest CYGNSS observations into a limited-domain, convection-resolving model. Our focus for now is on case studies of convective evolution, but we will also report on progress toward statistical analysis of convection sampled by CYGNSS. Our working hypothesis is that the typical mature phase of organized tropical convection is marked by the development of a sharp gust-front boundary from an originally spatially broader but weaker wind speed change associated with precipitation. This increase in the wind gradient, which we demonstrate is observable by CYGNSS, likely helps to focus enhanced turbulent fluxes of convection-sustaining heat and moisture near the leading edge of the convective system where they are more easily ingested by the updraft. Progress on the testing and refinement of this hypothesis, using a mixture of observations and modeling, will be reported.

Examining South Atlantic Subtropical Cyclone Anita using the Satellite-Enhanced Regional Downscaling for Applied Studies Hourly Outputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaicberg, H.; Palmeira, A. C. P. A.; Nunes, A.

2017-12-01

Studies on South Atlantic cyclones are mainly compromised by scarcity of observations. Therefore, remote sensing and global (re) analysis products are usually employed in investigations of their evolution. However, the frequent use of global reanalysis might difficult the assessment of the characteristics of the cyclones found in South Atlantic. In that regard, studies on "subtropical" cyclones have been performed using the 25-km resolution, Satellite-enhanced Regional Downscaling for Applied Studies (SRDAS), a product developed at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro in Brazil. In SRDAS, the Regional Spectral Model assimilates precipitation estimates from environmental satellites, while dynamically downscaling a global reanalysis using the spectral nudging technique to maintain the large-scale features in agreement with the regional model solution. The use of regional models in the downscaling of general circulation models provides more detailed information on weather and climate. As a way of illustrating the usefulness of SRDAS in the study of the subtropical South Atlantic cyclones, the subtropical cyclone Anita was selected because of its intensity. Anita developed near Brazilian south/southeast coast, with damages to local communities. Comparisons with available observations demonstrated the skill of SRDAS in simulating such an extreme event.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Prelaunch News Conference

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-10

In the Kennedy Space Center’s Press Site auditorium, NASA and industry leaders speak to members of the media during a prelaunch news conference for the agency’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. From left are: Christine Bonniksen, CYGNSS program executive in the Earth Science Division of the Science Mission Directorate at NASA Headquarters in Washington, D.C.; and Tim Dunn, NASA launch director at Kennedy. The eight CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data will help scientists probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a crucial role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Second Launch Attempt

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-15

In the Mission Director's Center at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Amanda Mitskevich, facing the camera, is program manager for NASA's Launch Services Program (LSP) at the agency's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Seated next to her is Chuck Dovale, deputy LSP program manager. They are monitoring the progress of preparations to launch eight Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. The CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a crucial role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

The GNSS Reflectometry Response to the Ocean Surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Paul; Jelenak, Zorana; Soisuvarn, Seubson; Said, Faozi

2016-04-01

Global Navigation Satellite System - Reflectometry (GNSS-R) exploits signals of opportunity from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). GNSS transmitters continuously transmit navigation signals at L-band toward the earth's surface. The scattered power reflected off the earth's surface can be sensed by specially designed GNSS-R receivers. The reflected signal can then be used to glean information about the surface of the earth, such as ocean surface roughness, snow depth, sea ice extent, and soil moisture. The use of GNSS-R for ocean wind retrievals was first demonstrated from aircraft. On July 8 2014, the TechDemoSat-1 satellite (TDS-1) was launched by Surrey Satellite Technology, Ltd as a technology risk reduction mission into sun-synchronous orbit. This paper investigates the GNSS-R measurements collected by the Space GNSS Receiver-Remote Sensing Instrument (SGR-ReSI) on board the TDS-1 satellite. The sensitivity of the SGR-ReSI measurements to the ocean surface winds and waves are characterized. The effects of sea surface temperature, wind direction, and rain are also investigated. The SGR-ReSI measurements exhibited sensitivity through the entire range of wind speeds sampled in this dataset, up to 35 m/s. A significant dependence on the larger waves was observed for winds < 6 m/s. Additionally, an interesting dependence on SST was observed where the slope of the SGR-ReSI measurements is positive for winds < 5 m/s and reverses for winds > 5 m/s. There appeared to be very little wind direction signal, and investigation of the rain impacts found no apparent sensitivity in the data. These results are shown through the analysis of global statistics and examination of a few case studies. This released SGR-ReSI dataset provided the first opportunity to comprehensively investigate the sensitivity of satellite-based GNSS-R measurements to various ocean surface parameters. The upcoming NASA's Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) satellite constellation will utilize a similar receiver to SGI-ReSI and thus this data provides valuable pre-launch knowledge for the CYGNSS mission.

Contrasting the projected change in extreme extratropical cyclones in the two hemispheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, E. K. M.

2017-12-01

Extratropical cyclones form an important part of the global circulation. They are responsible for much of the high impact weather in the mid-latitudes, including heavy precipitation, strong winds, and coastal storm surges. They are also the surface manifestation of baroclinic waves that are responsible for much of the transport of momentum, heat, and moisture across the mid-latitudes. Thus how these storms will change in the future is of much general interest. In particular, how the frequency of the extreme cyclones change are of most concern, since they are the ones that cause most damages. While the projection of a poleward shift of the Southern Hemisphere storm track and cyclone activity is widely accepted, together with a small decrease in the total number of extratropical cyclones, as discussed in the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5), projected change in cyclone intensity is still rather uncertain. Several studies have suggested that cyclone intensity, in terms of absolute value of sea level pressure (SLP) minima or SLP perturbations, is projected to increase under global warming. However, other studies found no increase in wind speed around extratropical cyclones. In this study, CMIP5 multi-model projection of how the frequency of extreme cyclones in terms of near surface wind intensity may change under global warming has been examined. Results suggest significant increase in the occurrences of extreme cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, CMIP5 models project a northeastward shift in extreme cyclone activity over the Pacific, and significant decrease over the Atlantic. Substantial differences are also found between projected changes in near surface wind intensity and wind intensity at 850 hPa, suggesting that wind change at 850 hPa is not a good proxy for change in surface wind intensity. Finally, projected changes in the large scale environment are examined to understand the dynamics behind these contrasting projected changes.

A global slowdown of tropical-cyclone translation speed.

PubMed

Kossin, James P

2018-06-01

As the Earth's atmosphere warms, the atmospheric circulation changes. These changes vary by region and time of year, but there is evidence that anthropogenic warming causes a general weakening of summertime tropical circulation 1-8 . Because tropical cyclones are carried along within their ambient environmental wind, there is a plausible a priori expectation that the translation speed of tropical cyclones has slowed with warming. In addition to circulation changes, anthropogenic warming causes increases in atmospheric water-vapour capacity, which are generally expected to increase precipitation rates 9 . Rain rates near the centres of tropical cyclones are also expected to increase with increasing global temperatures 10-12 . The amount of tropical-cyclone-related rainfall that any given local area will experience is proportional to the rain rates and inversely proportional to the translation speeds of tropical cyclones. Here I show that tropical-cyclone translation speed has decreased globally by 10 per cent over the period 1949-2016, which is very likely to have compounded, and possibly dominated, any increases in local rainfall totals that may have occurred as a result of increased tropical-cyclone rain rates. The magnitude of the slowdown varies substantially by region and by latitude, but is generally consistent with expected changes in atmospheric circulation forced by anthropogenic emissions. Of particular importance is the slowdown of 30 per cent and 20 per cent over land areas affected by western North Pacific and North Atlantic tropical cyclones, respectively, and the slowdown of 19 per cent over land areas in the Australian region. The unprecedented rainfall totals associated with the 'stall' of Hurricane Harvey 13-15 over Texas in 2017 provide a notable example of the relationship between regional rainfall amounts and tropical-cyclone translation speed. Any systematic past or future change in the translation speed of tropical cyclones, particularly over land, is therefore highly relevant when considering potential changes in local rainfall totals.

Model finds bigger, stronger tropical cyclones with warming seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Colin

2014-03-01

In the wake of powerful tropical cyclones such as Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina and Typhoon Haiyan, questions about the likely effect of climate change on tropical cyclone activity are on the public's mind. The interactions between global warming and cyclone activity, however, are complex, with rising sea surface temperatures, changing energy distributions, and altered atmospheric dynamics all having some effect.

Is the poleward migration of tropical cyclone maximum intensity associated with a poleward migration of tropical cyclone genesis?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daloz, Anne Sophie; Camargo, Suzana J.

2018-01-01

A recent study showed that the global average latitude where tropical cyclones achieve their lifetime-maximum intensity has been migrating poleward at a rate of about one-half degree of latitude per decade over the last 30 years in each hemisphere. However, it does not answer a critical question: is the poleward migration of tropical cyclone lifetime-maximum intensity associated with a poleward migration of tropical cyclone genesis? In this study we will examine this question. First we analyze changes in the environmental variables associated with tropical cyclone genesis, namely entropy deficit, potential intensity, vertical wind shear, vorticity, skin temperature and specific humidity at 500 hPa in reanalysis datasets between 1980 and 2013. Then, a selection of these variables is combined into two tropical cyclone genesis indices that empirically relate tropical cyclone genesis to large-scale variables. We find a shift toward greater (smaller) average potential number of genesis at higher (lower) latitudes over most regions of the Pacific Ocean, which is consistent with a migration of tropical cyclone genesis towards higher latitudes. We then examine the global best track archive and find coherent and significant poleward shifts in mean genesis position over the Pacific Ocean basins.

AIRS Impact on the Analysis and Forecast Track of Tropical Cyclone Nargis in a Global Data Assimilation and Forecasting System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reale, O.; Lau, W.K.; Susskind, J.; Brin, E.; Liu, E.; Riishojgaard, L. P.; Rosenburg, R.; Fuentes, M.

2009-01-01

Tropical cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean pose serious challenges to operational weather forecasting systems, partly due to their shorter lifespan and more erratic track, compared to those in the Atlantic and the Pacific. Moreover, the automated analyses of cyclones over the northern Indian Ocean, produced by operational global data assimilation systems (DASs), are generally of inferior quality than in other basins. In this work it is shown that the assimilation of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) temperature retrievals under partial cloudy conditions can significantly impact the representation of the cyclone Nargis (which caused devastating loss of life in Myanmar in May 2008) in a global DAS. Forecasts produced from these improved analyses by a global model produce substantially smaller track errors. The impact of the assimilation of clear-sky radiances on the same DAS and forecasting system is positive, but smaller than the one obtained by ingestion of AIRS retrievals, possibly due to poorer coverage.

Climate-Related Hazards: A Method for Global Assessment of Urban and Rural Population Exposure to Cyclones, Droughts, and Floods

PubMed Central

Christenson, Elizabeth; Elliott, Mark; Banerjee, Ovik; Hamrick, Laura; Bartram, Jamie

2014-01-01

Global climate change (GCC) has led to increased focus on the occurrence of, and preparation for, climate-related extremes and hazards. Population exposure, the relative likelihood that a person in a given location was exposed to a given hazard event(s) in a given period of time, was the outcome for this analysis. Our objectives were to develop a method for estimating the population exposure at the country level to the climate-related hazards cyclone, drought, and flood; develop a method that readily allows the addition of better datasets to an automated model; differentiate population exposure of urban and rural populations; and calculate and present the results of exposure scores and ranking of countries based on the country-wide, urban, and rural population exposures to cyclone, drought, and flood. Gridded global datasets on cyclone, drought and flood occurrence as well as population density were combined and analysis was carried out using ArcGIS. Results presented include global maps of ranked country-level population exposure to cyclone, drought, flood and multiple hazards. Analyses by geography and human development index (HDI) are also included. The results and analyses of this exposure assessment have implications for country-level adaptation. It can also be used to help prioritize aid decisions and allocation of adaptation resources between countries and within a country. This model is designed to allow flexibility in applying cyclone, drought and flood exposure to a range of outcomes and adaptation measures. PMID:24566046

Assessing the influence of climate change on flooding hazards following tropical cyclone events in the Southeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, Monica Helen

Recent tropical cyclones, like Hurricane Katrina, have been some of the worst the United States has experienced. Tropical cyclones are expected to intensify, bringing about 20% more precipitation, in the near future in response to global climate warming. Further, global climate warming may extend the hurricane season. This study focuses on four major river basins (Neches, Pearl, Mobile, and Roanoke) in the Southeast United States that are frequently impacted by tropical cyclones. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model flow along these rivers from 1998-2014 with 20% more precipitation during tropical cyclones. The results of this study show that an increase in tropical cyclone precipitation due to future climate change may increase peak flows at the mouths of these Southeast rivers by ˜7-18%. Most tropical cyclones that impact these river basins occur during the low discharge season, and thus rarely produce flooding conditions at their mouths. An extension of the current hurricane season of June-November, due to global climate warming, could encroach upon the wet season in these basins and lead to increased flooding. On average, this analysis shows that an extension of the hurricane season to May-December increased flooding susceptibility by 63% for the rivers analyzed in this study. That is, 4-6 more days per year likely would have been above bankfull discharge if an average tropical cyclone had occurred any day (based on 1998-2014 data) in the months May-December than in the current hurricane season months of June-November. More research is needed on the mechanisms and processes involved in the water balance of the four rivers analyzed in this study, and others in the Southeast United States, and how this is likely to change in the near future with global climate warming.

A Classification of Mediterranean Cyclones Based on Global Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reale, Oreste; Atlas, Robert

2003-01-01

The Mediterranean Sea region is dominated by baroclinic and orographic cyclogenesis. However, previous work has demonstrated the existence of rare but intense subsynoptic-scale cyclones displaying remarkable similarities to tropical cyclones and polar lows, including, but not limited to, an eye-like feature in the satellite imagery. The terms polar low and tropical cyclone have been often used interchangeably when referring to small-scale, convective Mediterranean vortices and no definitive statement has been made so far on their nature, be it sub-tropical or polar. Moreover, most of the classifications of Mediterranean cyclones have neglected the small-scale convective vortices, focusing only on the larger-scale and far more common baroclinic cyclones. A classification of all Mediterranean cyclones based on operational global analyses is proposed The classification is based on normalized horizontal shear, vertical shear, scale, low versus mid-level vorticity, low-level temperature gradients, and sea surface temperatures. In the classification system there is a continuum of possible events, according to the increasing role of barotropic instability and decreasing role of baroclinic instability. One of the main results is that the Mediterranean tropical cyclone-like vortices and the Mediterranean polar lows appear to be different types of events, in spite of the apparent similarity of their satellite imagery. A consistent terminology is adopted, stating that tropical cyclone- like vortices are the less baroclinic of all, followed by polar lows, cold small-scale cyclones and finally baroclinic lee cyclones. This classification is based on all the cyclones which occurred in a four-year period (between 1996 and 1999). Four cyclones, selected among all the ones which developed during this time-frame, are analyzed. Particularly, the classification allows to discriminate between two cyclones (occurred in October 1996 and in March 1999) which both display a very well-defined eye-like feature in the satellite imagery. According to our classification system, the two events are dynamically different and can be categorized as being respectively a tropical cyclone-like vortex and well-developed polar low.

Relationships Between Global Warming and Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-01

In this work, we investigate the relationships between global warming and tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific (WNP). Our...hypothesis is that global warming impacts on TC activity occur through changes in the large scale environmental factors (LSEFs) known to be important in...averages. Using a least squares fit, we identify global warming signals in both the SST and vertical wind shear data across the WNP. These signals vary

Promoting the confluence of tropical cyclone research.

PubMed

Marler, Thomas E

2015-01-01

Contributions of biologists to tropical cyclone research may improve by integrating concepts from other disciplines. Employing accumulated cyclone energy into protocols may foster greater integration of ecology and meteorology research. Considering experienced ecosystems as antifragile instead of just resilient may improve cross-referencing among ecological and social scientists. Quantifying ecosystem capital as distinct from ecosystem services may improve integration of tropical cyclone ecology research into the expansive global climate change research community.

The poleward shift of storm tracks under global warming: A Lagrangian perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamarin, T.; Kaspi, Y.

2017-10-01

Comprehensive models of climate change projections have shown that the latitudinal band of extratropical storms will likely shift poleward under global warming. Here we study this poleward shift from a Lagrangian storm perspective, through simulations with an idealized general circulation model. By employing a feature tracking technique to identify the storms, we demonstrate that the poleward motion of individual cyclones increases with increasing global mean temperature. A potential vorticity tendency analysis of the cyclone composites highlights two leading mechanisms responsible for enhanced poleward motion: nonlinear horizontal advection and diabatic heating associated with latent heat release. Our results imply that for a 4 K rise in the global mean surface temperature, the mean poleward displacement of cyclones increases by about 0.85° of latitude, and this occurs in addition to a poleward shift of about 0.6° in their mean genesis latitude. Changes in cyclone tracks may have a significant impact on midlatitude climate, especially in localized storm tracks such as the Atlantic and Pacific storm tracks, which may exhibit a more poleward deflected shape.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Prelaunch News Conference

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-10

In the Kennedy Space Center’s Press Site auditorium, NASA and industry leaders speak to members of the media during a prelaunch news conference for the agency’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. From left are: John Scherrer, CYGNSS project manager for the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio, Texas; and Mike Rehbein, launch weather officer for the 45th Weather Squadron at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida. The eight CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data will help scientists probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a crucial role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Arrival at CCAFS

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-02

The Orbital ATK L-1011 Stargazer aircraft has arrived at the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. Attached beneath the Stargazer is the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL with NASA's Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) on board. CYGNSS was processed and prepared for its mission at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is scheduled for its airborne launch aboard the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip on Dec. 12. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Prepared for Launch Aboard Orbital ATK's L-101

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-10

At Cape Canaveral Air Force Station's Skid Strip the Orbital ATK L-1011 Stargazer aircraft is being prepared to launch NASA's Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. The eight micro satellites are aboard an Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket strapped to the underside of the Stargazer. CYGNSS is scheduled for its airborne launch aboard the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip on Dec. 12. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Mission Science Briefing

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-10

In the Kennedy Space Center’s Press Site auditorium, NASA and industry leaders speak to members of the media during a mission science briefing for the agency’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. From left are: Aaron Ridley, CYGNSS constellation scientist in the Climate and Space Department at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, Michigan; and Mary Morris, doctoral student in the Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering at the University of Michigan. The eight CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data will help scientists probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a crucial role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Arrival at CCAFS

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-02

The Orbital ATK L-1011 Stargazer aircraft begins its descent to the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. Attached beneath the Stargazer is the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL with NASA's Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) on board. CYGNSS was processed and prepared for its mission at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is scheduled for its airborne launch aboard the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip on Dec. 12. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Mission Science Briefing

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-10

In the Kennedy Space Center’s Press Site auditorium, NASA and industry leaders speak to members of the media during a mission science briefing for the agency’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. From left are: Dr. Chris Ruf, CYGNSS principal investigator, Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering at the University of Michigan; and Aaron Ridley, CYGNSS constellation scientist in the Climate and Space Department at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, Michigan. The eight CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data will help scientists probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a crucial role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Automated Historical and Real-Time Cyclone Discovery With Multimodal Remote Satellite Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, S.; Talukder, A.; Liu, T.; Tang, W.; Bingham, A.

2008-12-01

Existing cyclone detection and tracking solutions involve extensive manual analysis of modeled-data and field campaign data by teams of experts. We have developed a novel automated global cyclone detection and tracking system by assimilating and sharing information from multiple remote satellites. This unprecedented solution of combining multiple remote satellite measurements in an autonomous manner allows leveraging off the strengths of each individual satellite. Use of multiple satellite data sources also results in significantly improved temporal tracking accuracy for cyclones. Our solution involves an automated feature extraction and machine learning technique based on an ensemble classifier and Kalman filter for cyclone detection and tracking from multiple heterogeneous satellite data sources. Our feature-based methodology that focuses on automated cyclone discovery is fundamentally different from, and actually complements, the well-known Dvorak technique for cyclone intensity estimation (that often relies on manual detection of cyclonic regions) from field and remote data. Our solution currently employs the QuikSCAT wind measurement and the merged level 3 TRMM precipitation data for automated cyclone discovery. Assimilation of other types of remote measurements is ongoing and planned in the near future. Experimental results of our automated solution on historical cyclone datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our automated approach compared to previous work. Performance of our detection solution compares favorably against the list of cyclones occurring in North Atlantic Ocean for the 2005 calendar year reported by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in our initial analysis. We have also demonstrated the robustness of our cyclone tracking methodology in other regions over the world by using multiple heterogeneous satellite data for detection and tracking of three arbitrary historical cyclones in other regions. Our cyclone detection and tracking methodology can be applied to (i) historical data to support Earth scientists in climate modeling, cyclonic-climate interactions, and obtain a better understanding of the cause and effects of cyclone (e.g. cyclo-genesis), and (ii) automatic cyclone discovery in near real-time using streaming satellite to support and improve the planning of global cyclone field campaigns. Additional satellite data from GOES and other orbiting satellites can be easily assimilated and integrated into our automated cyclone detection and tracking module to improve the temporal tracking accuracy of cyclones down to ½ hr and reduce the incidence of false alarms.

Promoting the confluence of tropical cyclone research

PubMed Central

Marler, Thomas E

2015-01-01

Contributions of biologists to tropical cyclone research may improve by integrating concepts from other disciplines. Employing accumulated cyclone energy into protocols may foster greater integration of ecology and meteorology research. Considering experienced ecosystems as antifragile instead of just resilient may improve cross-referencing among ecological and social scientists. Quantifying ecosystem capital as distinct from ecosystem services may improve integration of tropical cyclone ecology research into the expansive global climate change research community. PMID:26480001

Global climatology of explosive cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balcerak, Ernie

2013-03-01

Explosive cyclones, which have rapidly intensifying winds and heavy rain, can seriously threaten life and property. These "meteorological bombs" are difficult to forecast, in part because scientists need a better understanding of the physical mechanisms by which they form. In particular, the large-scale circulation conditions that may contribute to explosive cyclone formation are not well understood.

The influence of an extended Atlantic hurricane season on inland flooding potential in the southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, Monica H.; Cohen, Sagy

2017-03-01

Recent tropical cyclones, like Hurricane Katrina, have been some of the worst the United States has experienced. Tropical cyclones are expected to intensify, bringing about 20 % more precipitation, in the near future in response to global climate warming. Further, global climate warming may extend the hurricane season. This study focuses on four major river basins (Neches, Pearl, Mobile, and Roanoke) in the southeastern United States that are frequently impacted by tropical cyclones. An analysis of the timing of tropical cyclones that impact these river basins found that most occur during the low-discharge season and thus rarely produce riverine flooding conditions. However, an extension of the current hurricane season of June-November could encroach upon the high-discharge seasons in these basins, increasing the susceptibility for riverine hurricane-induced flooding. Our results indicate that 28-180 % more days would be at risk of flooding from an average tropical cyclone with an extension of the hurricane season to May-December (just 2 months longer). Future research should aim to extend this analysis to all river basins in the United States that are impacted by tropical cyclones in order to provide a bigger picture of which areas are likely to experience the worst increases in flooding risk due to a probable extension of the hurricane season with expected global climate change in the near future.

The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity.

PubMed

Kossin, James P; Emanuel, Kerry A; Vecchi, Gabriel A

2014-05-15

Temporally inconsistent and potentially unreliable global historical data hinder the detection of trends in tropical cyclone activity. This limits our confidence in evaluating proposed linkages between observed trends in tropical cyclones and in the environment. Here we mitigate this difficulty by focusing on a metric that is comparatively insensitive to past data uncertainty, and identify a pronounced poleward migration in the average latitude at which tropical cyclones have achieved their lifetime-maximum intensity over the past 30 years. The poleward trends are evident in the global historical data in both the Northern and the Southern hemispheres, with rates of 53 and 62 kilometres per decade, respectively, and are statistically significant. When considered together, the trends in each hemisphere depict a global-average migration of tropical cyclone activity away from the tropics at a rate of about one degree of latitude per decade, which lies within the range of estimates of the observed expansion of the tropics over the same period. The global migration remains evident and statistically significant under a formal data homogenization procedure, and is unlikely to be a data artefact. The migration away from the tropics is apparently linked to marked changes in the mean meridional structure of environmental vertical wind shear and potential intensity, and can plausibly be linked to tropical expansion, which is thought to have anthropogenic contributions.

Asian pollution climatically modulates mid-latitude cyclones following hierarchical modelling and observational analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuan; Zhang, Renyi; Saravanan, R.

2014-01-01

Increasing levels of anthropogenic aerosols in Asia have raised considerable concern regarding its potential impact on the global atmosphere, but the magnitude of the associated climate forcing remains to be quantified. Here, using a novel hierarchical modelling approach and observational analysis, we demonstrate modulated mid-latitude cyclones by Asian pollution over the past three decades. Regional and seasonal simulations using a cloud-resolving model show that Asian pollution invigorates winter cyclones over the northwest Pacific, increasing precipitation by 7% and net cloud radiative forcing by 1.0 W m-2 at the top of the atmosphere and by 1.7 W m-2 at the Earth’s surface. A global climate model incorporating the diabatic heating anomalies from Asian pollution produces a 9% enhanced transient eddy meridional heat flux and reconciles a decadal variation of mid-latitude cyclones derived from the Reanalysis data. Our results unambiguously reveal a large impact of the Asian pollutant outflows on the global general circulation and climate.

The threat to coral reefs from more intense cyclones under climate change.

PubMed

Cheal, Alistair J; MacNeil, M Aaron; Emslie, Michael J; Sweatman, Hugh

2017-04-01

Ocean warming under climate change threatens coral reefs directly, through fatal heat stress to corals and indirectly, by boosting the energy of cyclones that cause coral destruction and loss of associated organisms. Although cyclone frequency is unlikely to rise, cyclone intensity is predicted to increase globally, causing more frequent occurrences of the most destructive cyclones with potentially severe consequences for coral reef ecosystems. While increasing heat stress is considered a pervasive risk to coral reefs, quantitative estimates of threats from cyclone intensification are lacking due to limited data on cyclone impacts to inform projections. Here, using extensive data from Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), we show that increases in cyclone intensity predicted for this century are sufficient to greatly accelerate coral reef degradation. Coral losses on the outer GBR were small, localized and offset by gains on undisturbed reefs for more than a decade, despite numerous cyclones and periods of record heat stress, until three unusually intense cyclones over 5 years drove coral cover to record lows over >1500 km. Ecological damage was particularly severe in the central-southern region where 68% of coral cover was destroyed over >1000 km, forcing record declines in the species richness and abundance of associated fish communities, with many local extirpations. Four years later, recovery of average coral cover was relatively slow and there were further declines in fish species richness and abundance. Slow recovery of community diversity appears likely from such a degraded starting point. Highly unusual characteristics of two of the cyclones, aside from high intensity, inflated the extent of severe ecological damage that would more typically have occurred over 100s of km. Modelling published predictions of future cyclone activity, the likelihood of more intense cyclones within time frames of coral recovery by mid-century poses a global threat to coral reefs and dependent societies. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Tropical Cyclones, Hurricanes, and Climate: NASA's Global Cloud-Scale Simulations and New Observations that Characterize the Lifecycle of Hurricanes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Putman, William M.

2010-01-01

One of the primary interests of Global Change research is the impact of climate changes and climate variability on extreme weather events, such as intense tropical storms and hurricanes. Atmospheric climate models run at resolutions of global weather models have been used to study the impact of climate variability, as seen in sea surface temperatures, on the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5) in ensembles run at 50 km resolution has been able to reproduce the interannual variations of tropical cyclone frequency seen in nature. This, and other global models, have found it much more difficult to reproduce the interannual changes in intensity, a result that reflects the inability of the models to simulate the intensities of the most extreme storms. Better representation of the structures of cyclones requires much higher resolution models. Such improved representation is also fundamental to making best use of satellite observations. In collaboration with NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GEOS-5 now has the capability of running at much higher resolution to better represent cloud-scale resolutions. Global simulations at cloud-permitting resolutions (10- to 3.5-km) allows for the development of realistic tropical cyclones from tropical storm 119 km/hr winds) to category 5 (>249km1hr winds) intensities. GEOS-5 has produced realistic rain-band and eye-wall structures in tropical cyclones that can be directly analyzed against satellite observations. For the first time a global climate model is capable of representing realistic intensity and track variability on a seasonal scale across basins. GEOS-5 is also used in assimilation mode to test the impact of NASA's observations on tropical cyclone forecasts. One such test, for tropical cyclone Nargis in the Indian Ocean in May 2008, showed that observations from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A) on Aqua substantially reduced forecast track errors. Tropical cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean pose serious challenges to operational weather forecasting systems, partly due to their shorter lifespan and more erratic track, compared to those in the Atlantic and the Pacific. SA is also bringing several state of the art instruments in recent field campaigns to peer under the clouds and study the inner workings of the tropical storms. With the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment, a NASA Earth science field experiment in 2010 that includes the Global Hawk Unmanned Airborne System (UAS) configured with a suite of in situ and remote sensing instruments that are observing and characterizing the lifecycle of hurricanes, we expect significant improvement in our understanding of the track and intensification processes with the assimilation of the satellite and field campaign observations of meteorological parameters in the numerical prediction models.

Climate change impacts on tropical cyclones and extreme sea levels in the South Pacific — A regional assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, Kevin J. E.; McInnes, Kathleen L.; McBride, John L.

2012-01-01

This paper reviews the current understanding of the effect of climate change on extreme sea levels in the South Pacific region. This region contains many locations that are vulnerable to extreme sea levels in the current climate, and projections indicate that this vulnerability will increase in the future. The recent publication of authoritative statements on the relationship between global warming and global sea level rise, tropical cyclones and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon has motivated this review. Confident predictions of global mean sea level rise are modified by regional differences in the steric (density-related) component of sea level rise and changing gravitational interactions between the ocean and the ice sheets which affect the regional distribution of the eustatic (mass-related) contribution to sea level rise. The most extreme sea levels in this region are generated by tropical cyclones. The intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones is likely to increase, but many climate models project a substantial decrease in tropical cyclone numbers in this region, which may lead to an overall decrease in the total number of intense tropical cyclones. This projection, however, needs to be better quantified using improved high-resolution climate model simulations of tropical cyclones. Future changes in ENSO may lead to large regional variations in tropical cyclone incidence and sea level rise, but these impacts are also not well constrained. While storm surges from tropical cyclones give the largest sea level extremes in the parts of this region where they occur, other more frequent high sea level events can arise from swell generated by distant storms. Changes in wave climate are projected for the tropical Pacific due to anthropogenically-forced changes in atmospheric circulation. Future changes in sea level extremes will be caused by a combination of changes in mean sea level, regional sea level trends, tropical cyclone incidence and wave climate. Recommendations are given for research to increase understanding of the response of these factors to climate change. Implications of the results for adaptation research are also discussed.

The Relationship Between Tropical Cyclone Frequency and 'Climate Change'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolton, M.; Mogil, M.

2013-12-01

Please note: there have been minor updates to this work since the main author, Matt Bolton, graduated high school, but the majority of the research was compiled by him while he was a high school junior in 2011. Abstract: In recent years, there has been a growing trend by many, in the meteorological community (media and scientist) to predict expected seasonal tropical cyclone frequency in the Atlantic and Pacific Basins. Typically, the numbers are related to seasonal averages. However, these predictions often show a large positive bias (i.e., there are more years in which the expected number of storms exceeds or far exceeds average). Further, observed numbers often come close to bearing out the forecasts (actually a good thing). From a public perspective (and based on extrapolations performed by media and some scientific groups), this peaking of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is observed globally. In an attempt to determine if such a global trend exists, we set out to collect data from weather agencies around the world and present it in a way that was as unbiased as possible. While there were inconsistencies across the various datasets, especially in regard to wind data, we were still able to construct a realistic global cyclone database. We have concluded that high activity levels in one basin are often balanced by areas of low activity in others. The Atlantic - Eastern Pacific couplet is one such example. This paper will serve as an update to our previous 2011 paper, which introduced our efforts. At that time, we found, on average, 70 named tropical cyclones worldwide. In both this and our original study, we did not address the issue of naming short-lived tropical systems, which was found to be inconsistent across worldwide ocean basins. Our results suggest, that from a global climate change perspective, a growing NUMBER of tropical cyclones is NOT being observed. In the current iteration of our study, we are examining, at least preliminarily, global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) values. As these values are computed more widely in the coming months, we also hope to include a breakdown of worldwide tropical systems by category and duration.

Sea turtle species vary in their susceptibility to tropical cyclones.

PubMed

Pike, David A; Stiner, John C

2007-08-01

Severe climatic events affect all species, but there is little quantitative knowledge of how sympatric species react to such situations. We compared the reproductive seasonality of sea turtles that nest sympatrically with their vulnerability to tropical cyclones (in this study, "tropical cyclone" refers to tropical storms and hurricanes), which are increasing in severity due to changes in global climate. Storm surges significantly decreased reproductive output by lowering the number of nests that hatched and the number of hatchlings that emerged from nests, but the severity of this effect varied by species. Leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) began nesting earliest and most offspring hatched before the tropical cyclone season arrived, resulting in little negative effect. Loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nested intermediately, and only nests laid late in the season were inundated with seawater during storm surges. Green turtles (Chelonia mydas) nested last, and their entire nesting season occurred during the tropical cyclone season; this resulted in a majority (79%) of green turtle nests incubating in September, when tropical cyclones are most likely to occur. Since this timing overlaps considerably with the tropical cyclone season, the developing eggs and nests are extremely vulnerable to storm surges. Increases in the severity of tropical cyclones may cause green turtle nesting success to worsen in the future. However, published literature suggests that loggerhead turtles are nesting earlier in the season and shortening their nesting seasons in response to increasing sea surface temperatures caused by global climate change. This may cause loggerhead reproductive success to improve in the future because more nests will hatch before the onset of tropical cyclones. Our data clearly indicate that sympatric species using the same resources are affected differently by tropical cyclones due to slight variations in the seasonal timing of nesting, a key life history process.

Resolving Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, C. A.

2018-02-01

In recent years, global weather forecast models and global climate models have begun to depict intense tropical cyclones, even up to category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. In light of the limitation of horizontal resolution in such models, the author performs calculations, using the extended Best Track data for Atlantic tropical cyclones, to estimate the ability of models with differing grid spacing to represent Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity statistically. Results indicate that, under optimistic assumptions, models with horizontal grid spacing of one fourth degree or coarser should not produce a realistic number of category 4 and 5 storms unless there are errors in spatial attributes of the wind field. Furthermore, the case of Irma (2017) is used to demonstrate the importance of a realistic depiction of angular momentum and to motivate the use of angular momentum in model evaluation.

Quantitative observations on tropical cyclone tracks in the Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terry, James P.; Gienko, Gennady

2018-03-01

The Arabian Sea basin represents a minor component of global total cyclones annually and has not featured so prominently in cyclone research compared with other basins where greater numbers of cyclones are registered each year. This paper presents the results of exploratory analysis of various features of cyclone tracks in the Arabian Sea, with a particular focus on examining their temporal and spatial patterns. Track morphometry also reveals further information on track shape. The study indicates how cyclones spawned during May in the early pre-monsoon period (often strong events) have a tendency to follow more sinuous tracks, whereas cyclones occurring in October in the post-monsoon period tend to follow straighter tracks. Track sinuosity is significantly related to other attributes, including cyclone longevity and intensity. Comparisons are also drawn between the general characteristics of cyclone tracks in the Arabian Sea and other ocean basins, suggesting how the size and geography of the Arabian Sea basin exert influences on these characteristics.

How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yettella, Vineel; Kay, Jennifer E.

2017-09-01

The extratropical precipitation response to global warming is investigated within a 30-member initial condition climate model ensemble. As in observations, modeled cyclonic precipitation contributes a large fraction of extratropical precipitation, especially over the ocean and in the winter hemisphere. When compared to present day, the ensemble projects increased cyclone-associated precipitation under twenty-first century business-as-usual greenhouse gas forcing. While the cyclone-associated precipitation response is weaker in the near-future (2016-2035) than in the far-future (2081-2100), both future periods have similar patterns of response. Though cyclone frequency changes are important regionally, most of the increased cyclone-associated precipitation results from increased within-cyclone precipitation. Consistent with this result, cyclone-centric composites show statistically significant precipitation increases in all cyclone sectors. Decomposition into thermodynamic (mean cyclone water vapor path) and dynamic (mean cyclone wind speed) contributions shows that thermodynamics explains 92 and 95% of the near-future and far-future within-cyclone precipitation increases respectively. Surprisingly, the influence of dynamics on future cyclonic precipitation changes is negligible. In addition, the forced response exceeds internal variability in both future time periods. Overall, this work suggests that future cyclonic precipitation changes will result primarily from increased moisture availability in a warmer world, with secondary contributions from changes in cyclone frequency and cyclone dynamics.

KSC-20161214-JBS-MH-01-0001-L_1011_Pegasus_XL_CYGNSS-3139565_HEVC

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-14

The Orbital ATK L-1011 Stargazer aircraft is at the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. Attached beneath the Stargazer is the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL with NASA's Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) on board. CYGNSS was processed and prepared for its mission at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is scheduled for its airborne launch aboard the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip on Dec. 15. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Spacecraft Arrival

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-09-28

Parts for NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) arrive in shipping containers and are stacked inside Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida in the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Spacecraft Arrival

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-09-28

Parts for NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) arrive in a shipping container at Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida in the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft. CYNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Fairing Inspection

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-20

The payload fairing for an Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket is inspected in Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The fairing will protect NASA's Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) spacecraft during launch. The rocket and spacecraft are being prepared at Vandenberg, then will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft and transported to NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Blacklight Test and Thermal Ring Installation

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-25

NASA's Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) spacecraft undergoes a black light test in Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida aboard the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS First Launch Attempt

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-12

Photographed from the F-18 pathfinder aircraft, the Orbital ATK L-1011 Stargazer aircraft is seen flying over the Atlantic Ocean offshore from Daytona Beach, Florida. Attached beneath the aircraft is the Pegasus XL rocket with eight Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. The CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a crucial role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes. NOTE: The Dec. 12, 2016 launch attempt was postponed due to a hydraulic pump aboard the Orbital ATK L-1011 aircraft which is required to release the latches holding Pegasus in place, is not receiving power.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Arrival at CCAFS

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-02

The Orbital ATK L-1011 Stargazer aircraft touches down at 3:57 p.m. EST at the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. Attached beneath the Stargazer is the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL with NASA's Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) on board. CYGNSS was processed and prepared for its mission at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is scheduled for its airborne launch aboard the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip on Dec. 12. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Spacecraft Arrival

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-09-28

Parts for NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) arrive in shipping containers at Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida in the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Predicting Tropical Cyclogenesis with a Global Mesoscale Model: Hierarchical Multiscale Interactions During the Formation of Tropical Cyclone Nargis(2008)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, B.-W.; Tao, W.-K.; Lau, W. K.; Atlas, R.

2010-01-01

Very severe cyclonic storm Nargis devastated Burma (Myanmar) in May 2008, caused tremendous damage and numerous fatalities, and became one of the 10 deadliest tropical cyclones (TCs) of all time. To increase the warning time in order to save lives and reduce economic damage, it is important to extend the lead time in the prediction of TCs like Nargis. As recent advances in high-resolution global models and supercomputing technology have shown the potential for improving TC track and intensity forecasts, the ability of a global mesoscale model to predict TC genesis in the Indian Ocean is examined in this study with the aim of improving simulations of TC climate. High-resolution global simulations with real data show that the initial formation and intensity variations of TC Nargis can be realistically predicted up to 5 days in advance. Preliminary analysis suggests that improved representations of the following environmental conditions and their hierarchical multiscale interactions were the key to achieving this lead time: (1) a westerly wind burst and equatorial trough, (2) an enhanced monsoon circulation with a zero wind shear line, (3) good upper-level outflow with anti-cyclonic wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa, and (4) low-level moisture convergence.

Projected changes in medicanes in the HadGEM3 N512 high-resolution global climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tous, M.; Zappa, G.; Romero, R.; Shaffrey, L.; Vidale, P. L.

2016-09-01

Medicanes or "Mediterranean hurricanes" represent a rare and physically unique type of Mediterranean mesoscale cyclone. There are similarities with tropical cyclones with regard to their development (based on the thermodynamical disequilibrium between the warm sea and the overlying troposphere) and their kinematic and thermodynamical properties (medicanes are intense vortices with a warm core and even a cloud-free eye). Although medicanes are smaller and their wind speeds are lower than in tropical cyclones, the severity of their winds can cause substantial damage to islands and coastal areas. Concern about how human-induced climate change will affect extreme events is increasing. This includes the future impacts on medicanes due to the warming of the Mediterranean waters and the projected changes in regional atmospheric circulation. However, most global climate models do not have high enough spatial resolution to adequately represent small features such as medicanes. In this study, a cyclone tracking algorithm is applied to high resolution global climate model data with a horizontal grid resolution of approximately 25 km over the Mediterranean region. After a validation of the climatology of general Mediterranean mesoscale cyclones, changes in medicanes are determined using climate model experiments with present and future forcing. The magnitude of the changes in the winds, frequency and location of medicanes is assessed. While no significant changes in the total number of Mediterranean mesoscale cyclones are found, medicanes tend to decrease in number but increase in intensity. The model simulation suggests that medicanes tend to form more frequently in the Gulf of Lion-Genoa and South of Sicily.

High Resolution Global Climate Modeling with GEOS-5: Intense Precipitation, Convection and Tropical Cyclones on Seasonal Time-Scales.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Putnam, WilliamM.

2011-01-01

In 2008 the World Modeling Summit for Climate Prediction concluded that "climate modeling will need-and is ready-to move to fundamentally new high-resolution approaches to capitalize on the seamlessness of the weather-climate continuum." Following from this, experimentation with very high-resolution global climate modeling has gained enhanced priority within many modeling groups and agencies. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model (GEOS-5) has been enhanced to provide a capability for the execution at the finest horizontal resolutions POS,SIOle with a global climate model today. Using this high-resolution, non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5, we have developed a unique capability to explore the intersection of weather and climate within a seamless prediction system. Week-long weather experiments, to mUltiyear climate simulations at global resolutions ranging from 3.5- to 14-km have demonstrated the predictability of extreme events including severe storms along frontal systems, extra-tropical storms, and tropical cyclones. The primary benefits of high resolution global models will likely be in the tropics, with better predictions of the genesis stages of tropical cyclones and of the internal structure of their mature stages. Using satellite data we assess the accuracy of GEOS-5 in representing extreme weather phenomena, and their interaction within the global climate on seasonal time-scales. The impacts of convective parameterization and the frequency of coupling between the moist physics and dynamics are explored in terms of precipitation intensity and the representation of deep convection. We will also describe the seasonal variability of global tropical cyclone activity within a global climate model capable of representing the most intense category 5 hurricanes.

A satellite constellation optimization for a regional GNSS remote sensing mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavili Kilaneh, Narin; Mashhadi Hossainali, Masoud

2017-04-01

Due to the recent advances in the Global Navigation Satellite System Remote sensing (GNSS¬R) applications, optimization of a satellite orbit to investigate the Earth's properties seems significant. The comparison of the GNSS direct and reflected signals received by a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite introduces a new technique to remotely sense the Earth. Several GNSS¬R missions including Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) have been proposed for different applications such as the ocean wind speed and height monitoring. The geometric optimization of the satellite orbit before starting the mission is a key step for every space mission. Since satellite constellation design varies depending on the application, we have focused on the required geometric criteria for oceanography applications in a specified region. Here, the total number of specular points, their spatial distribution and the accuracy of their position are assumed to be sufficient for oceanography applications. Gleason's method is used to determine the position of specular points. We considered the 2-D lattice and 3-D lattice theory of flower constellation to survey whether a circular orbit or an elliptical one is suitable to improve the solution. Genetic algorithm is implemented to solve the problem. To check the visibility condition between the LEO and GPS satellites, the satellite initial state is propagated by a variable step size numerical integration method. Constellation orbit parameters achieved by optimization provide a better resolution and precession for the specular points in the study area of this research.

Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Loring, Burlen

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5°C above preindustrial average temperatures. In this paper, we present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0°C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical stormsmore » is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5°C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.« less

Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Loring, Burlen; Stone, Dáithí; Krishnan, Harinarayan

2018-02-01

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

DOE PAGES

Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Loring, Burlen; ...

2018-02-28

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5°C above preindustrial average temperatures. In this paper, we present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0°C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical stormsmore » is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5°C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.« less

On predicting future economic losses from tropical cyclones: Comparing damage functions for the Eastern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geiger, Tobias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja

2015-04-01

Recent years have seen an intense scientific debate of what to expect from future tropical cyclone activity under climate change [1,2]. Besides the projection of cyclones' genesis points and trajectories it is the cyclone's impact on future societies that needs to be quantified. In our present work, where we focus on the Eastern USA, we start out with a comprehensive comparison of a variety of presently available and novel functional relationships that are used to link cyclones' physical properties with their damage caused on the ground. These so-called damage functions make use of high quality data sets consisting of gridded population data, exposed capital at risk, and information on the cyclone's extension and its translational and locally resolved maximum wind speed. Based on a cross-validation ansatz we train a multitude of damage functions on a large variety of data sets in order to evaluate their performance on an equally sized test sample. Although different damage analyses have been conducted in the literature [3,4,5,6], the efforts have so far primarily been focused on determining fit parameters for individual data sets. As our analysis consists of a wide range of damage functions implemented on identical data sets, we can rigorously evaluate which (type of) damage function (for which set of parameters) does best in reproducing damages and should therefore be used for future loss analysis with highest certainty. We find that the benefits of using locally resolved data input tend to be outweighed by the large uncertainties that accompany the data. More coarse and generalized data input therefore captures the diversity of cyclonic features better. Furthermore, our analysis shows that a non-linear relation between wind speed and damage outperforms the linear as well as the exponential relationship discussed in the literature. In a second step, the damage function with the highest predictive quality is implemented to predict potential future cyclone losses for the Eastern USA until the year 2100. The projection is based on downscaling five different GCM model runs for the RCP8.5 scenario, as conducted by Emanuel et al. [7], and accounts for population and GDP changes relying on the newly developed Shared Socioenonomic Pathways (SSPs) [8]. We hereby contribute valuable input to the scientific community as well as the societies at risk. The possibility of extending this work to different regions in order to access the future impact of tropical cyclones on a global scale will also be discussed. References [1] Thomas R. Knutson, John L. McBride, Johnny Chan, Kerry Emanuel, Greg Holland, Chris Landsea, Isaac Held, James P. Kossin, A. K. Srivastava, and Masato Sugi. Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature Geoscience, 3(3):157-163, 2010. [2] Robert Mendelsohn, Kerry Emanuel, Shun Chonabayashi, and Laura Bakkensen. The impact of climate change on global tropical cyclone damage. Nature Climate Change, 2(3):205-209, 2012. [3] Silvio Schmidt, Claudia Kemfert, and Peter Höppe. The impact of socio-economics and climate change on tropical cyclone losses in the USA. Regional Environmental Change, 10(1):13-26, 2009. [4] William D. Nordhaus. The Economics of Hurricanes and Implications of Global Warming. Climate Change Economics, 01(01):1-20, 2010. [5] Kerry Emanuel. Global Warming Effects on U.S. Hurricane Damage. Weather, Climate, and Society, 3(4):261-268, 2011. [6] Richard J. Murnane and James B. Elsner. Maximum wind speeds and US hurricane losses. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(16):707, 2012. [7] Kerry Emanuel. Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(30):12219-24, 2013. [8] Detlef P. van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, and Richard Moss. A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities. Global Environmental Change, 22(1):21-35, 2012.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Microsats Installation on Deployment Module

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-11

Inside Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, technicians and engineers install one of eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) spacecraft on its deployment module. Processing activities will prepare the spacecraft for launch aboard an Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket. When preparations are competed at Vandenberg, the rocket will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft with in its payload fairing. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Spacecraft Mate

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-28

Inside Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) spacecraft installed on their deployment module undergo inspections prior to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Processing activities will prepare the spacecraft for launch aboard an Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket. When preparations are competed at Vandenberg, the rocket will be transported to Kennedy attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft with in its payload fairing. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Mate to L-1011

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-11-28

At Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, an Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket is mated to the company's L-1011 carrier aircraft near Vandenberg's runway. On board Pegasus are eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. When preparations are competed at Vandenberg, the L-1011/Pegasus XL combination will be flown to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. On Dec. 12, 2016, the carrier aircraft is scheduled to take off from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket with the L-1011 flying off shore. CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Fairing Mate Complete

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-11-15

In Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, an Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket is seen after payload fairing installation. On board Pegasus are eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. When preparations are competed at Vandenberg, the L-1011/Pegasus XL combination will be flown to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. On Dec. 12, 2016, the carrier aircraft is scheduled to take off from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket with the L-1011 flying off shore. CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will help scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a crucial role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Mate to L-1011

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-11-28

At Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the Orbital ATK L-1011 Stargazer awaits a Pegasus XL rocket to be mated to the aircraft. On board Pegasus XL are eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. When preparations are competed at Vandenberg, the /Pegasus XL combination will be flown to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. On Dec. 12, 2016, the carrier aircraft is scheduled to take off from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket with the L-1011 flying off shore. CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will help scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a crucial role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Fairing Installation

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-11-11

At Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, an Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket is seen during payload fairing installation in Building 1555. On board Pegasus are eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. When preparations are competed at Vandenberg, the L-1011/Pegasus XL combination will be flown to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. On Dec. 12, 2016, the carrier aircraft is scheduled to take off from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket with the L-1011 flying off shore. CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will help scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a crucial role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Microsats Installation on Deployment Module

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-11

Inside Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, one of eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) spacecraft is inspected. Processing activities will prepare the spacecraft for launch aboard an Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket. When preparations are competed at Vandenberg, the rocket will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft with in its payload fairing. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Fairing Installation

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-11-11

In Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the payload fairing is being installed on an Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket. On board Pegasus are eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. When preparations are competed at Vandenberg, the L-1011/Pegasus XL combination will be flown to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. On Dec. 12, 2016, the carrier aircraft is scheduled to take off from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket with the L-1011 flying off shore. CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will help scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a crucial role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Microsats Installation on Deployment Module

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-11

Inside Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, one of eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) spacecraft is installed on its deployment module. Processing activities will prepare the spacecraft for launch aboard an Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket. When preparations are competed at Vandenberg, the rocket will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft with in its payload fairing. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Microsats Installation on Deployment Module

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-11

Technicians with Orbital ATK prepare to install the micro satellites on the deployment module for NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) in Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida aboard the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Microsats Installation on Deployment Module

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-12

A technician with Orbital ATK prepares to install another micro satellite on the deployment module for NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) in Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida aboard the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Fin Installation

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-09-21

Technicians prepare to install one of the fins on the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket inside Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The fins will provide aerodynamic stability during flight. The rocket is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida, attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft with NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) in its payload fairing. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Microsats Installation on Deployment Module

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-11

Technicians with Orbital ATK install the first two sets of micro satellites on the deployment module for NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) in Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida aboard the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Solar Panel Deployment and Illumination Test

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-02

Inside Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, solar panels for one of eight NASA's Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) spacecraft has been deployed for illumination testing. Processing activities will prepare the spacecraft for launch aboard an Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket. When preparations are completed at Vandenberg, the rocket will be transported to NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft within its payload fairing. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Prelaunch News Conference

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-10

In the Kennedy Space Center’s Press Site auditorium, NASA and industry leaders speak to members of the media during a prelaunch news conference for the agency’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. From left are: George Diller of NASA Communications; Christine Bonniksen, CYGNSS program executive in the Earth Science Division of the Science Mission Directorate at NASA Headquarters in Washington, D.C.; Tim Dunn, NASA launch director at Kennedy; Bryan Baldwin, Pegasus launch vehicle program manager for Orbital ATK, Dulles, Virginia; and John Scherrer, CYGNSS project manager for the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio, Texas. The eight CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data will help scientists probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a crucial role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Mission Science Briefing

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-10

In the Kennedy Space Center’s Press Site auditorium, NASA and industry leaders speak to members of the media during a mission science briefing for the agency’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. From left are: Sean Potter of NASA Communications; Dr. Chris Ruf, CYGNSS principal investigator, Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering at the University of Michigan; Aaron Ridley, CYGNSS constellation scientist in the Climate and Space Department at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, Michigan; and Mary Morris, doctoral student in the Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering at the University of Michigan. The eight CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data will help scientists probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a crucial role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Mission Science Briefing

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-10

In the Kennedy Space Center’s Press Site auditorium, NASA and industry leaders speak to members of the media during a mission science briefing for the agency’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. From left are: Dr. Chris Ruf, CYGNSS principal investigator, Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering at the University of Michigan; Aaron Ridley, CYGNSS constellation scientist in the Climate and Space Department at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, Michigan; and Mary Morris, doctoral student in the Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering at the University of Michigan. The eight CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data will help scientists probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a crucial role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Fairing Mate and Black Light Test

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-11-14

Technicians with Orbital ATK perform a black light test on the Pegasus XL fairing inside Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida aboard the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 Stargazer aircraft. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Microsats Installation on Deployment Module

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-11

A technician with Orbital ATK prepares the deployment module for NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) for micro satellites installation in Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida aboard the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Microsats Installation on Deployment Module

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-11

A technician with Orbital ATK checks out the micro satellites deployment module for NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) in Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida aboard the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Microsats Installation on Deployment Module

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-13

All of the micro satellites have been fully installed on the deployment module by Orbital ATK for NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) in Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida aboard the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Fin Installation

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-09-21

Technicians prepare one of the fins for installation on the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket inside Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The fins will provide aerodynamic stability during flight. The rocket is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida, attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft with NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) in its payload fairing. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Payload Adapter Installation to Deployment Mod

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-17

Technicians with Orbital ATK install the payload adapter to the deployment module that contains the micro satellites for NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) in Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida aboard the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Microsats Installation on Deployment Module

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-11

Technicians with Orbital ATK prepare the micro satellites for installation on the deployment module for NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) in Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida aboard the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Microsats Installation on Deployment Module

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-12

Technicians with Orbital ATK continue to install the micro satellites on the deployment module for NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) in Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida aboard the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Microsats Installation on Deployment Module

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-12

Technicians with Orbital ATK continue to install micro satellites on the deployment module for NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) in Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida aboard the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Fin Installation

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-09-21

Technicians prepare to install one of the fins on the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket inside Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The fins will provide aerodynamic stability during flight. The rocket is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft with NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) in its payload fairing. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Microsats Installation on Deployment Module

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-11

A technician with Orbital ATK assembles the micro satellites deployment module for NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) in Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida aboard the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Fairing Arrival

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-11

Technicians with Orbital ATK remove the first half of the Pegasus payload fairing for NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) from its shipping container and prepare it for the move to nearby Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida aboard the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Fairing Mate and Black Light Test

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-11-14

Technicians with Orbital ATK install the first half of the Pegasus XL fairing around NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) in Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida aboard the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Microsats Installation on Deployment Module

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-11

Technicians with Orbital ATK check assemble the micro satellites deployment module for NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) in Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida aboard the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Fairing Arrival

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-11

Technicians with Orbital ATK move the first half of the Pegasus payload fairing for NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) from into Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida aboard the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Microsats Installation on Deployment Module

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-11

Technicians with Orbital ATK prepare a set of micro satellites for installation on the deployment module for NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) in Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida aboard the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Microsats Installation on Deployment Module

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-11

Technicians with Orbital ATK check out the micro satellites deployment module for NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) in Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida aboard the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Departure from VAFB

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-02

The Orbital ATK L-1011 Stargazer, with a Pegasus XL rocket mated to the underside of the aircraft, takes off at sunrise from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. On board Pegasus XL are eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. The CYGNSS/Pegasus XL combination is being flown to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. On Dec. 12, 2016, the carrier aircraft is scheduled to take off from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket with the L-1011 flying off shore. CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will help scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a crucial role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Microsats Installation on Deployment Module

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-11

Technicians with Orbital ATK prepare to install micro satellites on the deployment module for NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) in Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida aboard the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Microsats Installation on Deployment Module

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-12

A technician with Orbital ATK checks the installation of the micro satellites on the deployment module for NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) in Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida aboard the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS - "Days to Launch" Sign

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-05

A sign just inside the gate to NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida notes that in seven days a Pegasus XL rocket is scheduled to launch with eight agency Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. On Dec. 12, 2016, the Orbital ATK L-1011 Stargazer, with a Pegasus XL rocket mated to the underside of the aircraft, will take off from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket with the L-1011 flying off shore. CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will help scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a crucial role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Departure from VAFB

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-02

The Orbital ATK L-1011 Stargazer, with a Pegasus XL rocket mated to the underside of the aircraft, has just taken off from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. On board Pegasus XL are eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. The CYGNSS/Pegasus XL combination is being flown to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. On Dec. 12, 2016, the carrier aircraft is scheduled to take off from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket with the L-1011 flying off shore. CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will help scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a crucial role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Microsats Installation on Deployment Module

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-11

Technicians with Orbital ATK install the first set of micro satellites on the deployment module for NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) in Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida aboard the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Microsats Installation on Deployment Module

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-11

A technician with Orbital ATK prepares a set of micro satellites for installation on the deployment module for NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) in Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. CYGNSS is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida aboard the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Fairing Mate and Black Light Test

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-11-14

Technicians with Orbital ATK have installed the first half of the Pegasus XL fairing around NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) in Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The second half of the fairing is being installed. CYGNSS is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida aboard the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Tropical and Extratropical Cyclone Damages under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranson, M.; Kousky, C.; Ruth, M.; Jantarasami, L.; Crimmins, A.; Tarquinio, L.

2014-12-01

This paper provides the first quantitative synthesis of the rapidly growing literature on future tropical and extratropical cyclone losses under climate change. We estimate a probability distribution for the predicted impact of changes in global surface air temperatures on future storm damages, using an ensemble of 296 estimates of the temperature-damage relationship from twenty studies. Our analysis produces three main empirical results. First, we find strong but not conclusive support for the hypothesis that climate change will cause damages from tropical cyclones and wind storms to increase, with most models (84 and 92 percent, respectively) predicting higher future storm damages due to climate change. Second, there is substantial variation in projected changes in losses across regions. Potential changes in damages are greatest in the North Atlantic basin, where the multi-model average predicts that a 2.5°C increase in global surface air temperature would cause hurricane damages to increase by 62 percent. The ensemble predictions for Western North Pacific tropical cyclones and European wind storms (extratropical cyclones) are approximately one third of that magnitude. Finally, our analysis shows that existing models of storm damages under climate change generate a wide range of predictions, ranging from moderate decreases to very large increases in losses.

Ocean barrier layers' effect on tropical cyclone intensification.

PubMed

Balaguru, Karthik; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R; Leung, L Ruby; Xu, Zhao; Li, Mingkui; Hsieh, Jen-Shan

2012-09-04

Improving a tropical cyclone's forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the cyclone's path and intensity. Herein, using a combination of observations and model simulations, we systematically demonstrate that tropical cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are "quasi-permanent" features in the upper tropical oceans. When tropical cyclones pass over regions with barrier layers, the increased stratification and stability within the layer reduce storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface temperature cooling. This causes an increase in enthalpy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and, consequently, an intensification of tropical cyclones. On average, the tropical cyclone intensification rate is nearly 50% higher over regions with barrier layers, compared to regions without. Our finding, which underscores the importance of observing not only the upper-ocean thermal structure but also the salinity structure in deep tropical barrier layer regions, may be a key to more skillful predictions of tropical cyclone intensities through improved ocean state estimates and simulations of barrier layer processes. As the hydrological cycle responds to global warming, any associated changes in the barrier layer distribution must be considered in projecting future tropical cyclone activity.

Ocean Barrier Layers’ Effect on Tropical Cyclone Intensification

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balaguru, Karthik; Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.

2012-09-04

Improving a tropical cyclone's forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the cyclone's path and intensity. Herein, using a combination of observations and model simulations, we systematically demonstrate that tropical cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are 'quasi-permanent' features in the upper tropical oceans. When tropical cyclones pass over regions with barrier layers, the increased stratification and stability within the layer reduce storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface temperature cooling. This causes an increase in enthalpy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and, consequently, an intensification of tropicalmore » cyclones. On average, the tropical cyclone intensification rate is nearly 50% higher over regions with barrier layers, compared to regions without. Our finding, which underscores the importance of observing not only the upper-ocean thermal structure but also the salinity structure in deep tropical barrier layer regions, may be a key to more skillful predictions of tropical cyclone intensities through improved ocean state estimates and simulations of barrier layer processes. As the hydrological cycle responds to global warming, any associated changes in the barrier layer distribution must be considered in projecting future tropical cyclone activity.« less

Climate change and Mediterranean storm tracks: present and future climate simulations of a high-resolution Mediterranean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatzaki, M.; Flocas, H. A.; Simmonds, I.; Keay, K.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Brikolas, V.; Kouroutzoglou, J.

2010-09-01

A number of studies suggest that cyclone activity over both hemispheres has changed over the second half of the 20th century. General features include a reduction in the number of cyclones but with an increase in the number of more intense cyclones; as well as a poleward shift in the tracks. Moreover, these features are expected to be projected in the future under global warming conditions. The assessment of the future changes of the cyclonic activity as imposed by global warming conditions is very important since these cyclones can be associated with extreme precipitation conditions, severe storms and floods. This is more important for the Mediterranean that has been found to be more vulnerable to climate change. The main objective of the current study is to better understand and assess future changes in the main characteristics of cyclonic tracks in the Mediterranean. The climatology of the cyclonic tracks includes temporal and spatial variations of frequency, and dynamic and kinematic parameters, such as intensity, size, propagation velocity, as well as trend analysis. For this purpose, the ENEA high resolution model is employed, based on PROTHEUS system composed of the RegCM atmospheric regional model and the MITgcm ocean model, coupled through the OASIS3 flux coupler. These model data became available through the EU Project CIRCE which aims to perform, for the first time, climate change projections with a realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea. Two experiments are employed; a) the EH5OM_20C3M present climate simulation, where the lateral boundary conditions for the atmosphere (1951-2000) are taken from the ECHAM5-MPIOM 20c3m global simulation (run3) included in the IPCC-AR4, and b) the EH5OM_A1B scenario simulation, where the IPCC-AR4 ECHAM5-MPIOM SRESA1B global simulation (run3) has been used for the period 2001-2050. The identification and tracking of cyclones is performed with the aid of the Melbourne University algorithm (MS algorithm), according to the Lagrangian perspective. MS algorithm characterizes a cyclone only if a vorticity maximum could be connected with a local pressure minimum. This approach is considered to be crucial, since open lows are also incorporated into the storm life-cycle, preventing possible inappropriate time series breaks, if a temporary weakening to an open-low state occurs. According to the results, a decrease of the storm number and a tendency towards deeper cyclones is expected in the future, in general agreement with the results of previous studies. However, new findings reveal with respect to the dynamic/kinematic characteristics of the cyclonic tracks. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: M. Hatzaki would like to thank the Greek State Scholarships Foundation for financial support through the program of postdoctoral research. The support of EU-FP6 project CIRCE Integrated Project-Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment (http://www.circeproject.eu) for climate model data provision is also greatly acknowledged.

Tropical Cyclone Formation in 30-day Simulation Using Cloud-System-Resolving Global Nonhydrostatic Model (NICAM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yanase, W.; Satoh, M.; Iga, S.; Tomita, H.

2007-12-01

We are developing an icosahedral-grid non-hydrostatic AGCM, which can explicitly represent cumulus or meso-scale convection over the entire globe. We named the model NICAM (Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model). On 2005, we have performed a simulations with horizontal grid intervals of 14, 7 and 3.5 km using realistic topography and sea surface temperature in April 2004 (Miura et al., 2007; GRL). It simulated a typhoon Sudal that actually developed over the Northwestern Pacific in 2004. In the present study, the NICAM model with the horizontal grid interval of 14 km was used for perpetual July experiment with 30 forecasting days. In this simulation, several tropical cyclones formed over the wesetern and eastern North Pacific, althought the formation over the western North Pacific occured a little further north to the actually observed region. The mature tropical cyclones with intense wind speed had a structure of a cloud-free eye and eye wall. We have found that the enviromental parameters associated with the tropical cyclone genesis explain well the simulated region of tropical cyclone generation. Over the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific, westward-moving disturbances like African wave are simulated, which seems to be related to the cyclone formation over the eastern North Pacific. On the other hand, the simulated tropical cyclones over the western North Pacifis seem to form by different factors as has been suggested by the previous studies based on observation. Although the model still has some problems and is under continuous improvement, we can discuss what dynamics is to be represented using a global high-resolution model.

Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Global Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, C. A.; Wang, W.; Ahijevych, D.

2017-12-01

In recent years, global prediction and climate models have begun to depict intense tropical cyclones, even up to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. In light of the limitation of horizontal resolution in such models, we examine the how well these models treat tropical cyclone intensity, measured from several different perspectives. The models evaluated include the operational Global Forecast System, with a grid spacing of about 13 km, and the Model for Prediction Across Scales, with a variable resolution of 15 km over the Northwest Pacific transitioning to 60 km elsewhere. We focus on the Northwest Pacific for the period July-October, 2016. Results indicate that discrimination of tropical cyclone intensity is reasonably good up to roughly category 3 storms. The models are able to capture storms of category 4 intensity, but still exhibit a negative intensity bias of 20-30 knots at lead times beyond 5 days. This is partly indicative of the large number of super-typhoons that occurred in 2016. The question arises of how well global models should represent intensity, given that it is unreasonable for them to depict the inner core of many intense tropical cyclones with a grid increment of 13-15 km. We compute an expected "best-case" prediction of intensity based on filtering the observed wind profiles of Atlantic tropical cyclones according to different hypothetical model resolutions. The Atlantic is used because of the significant number of reconnaissance missions and more reliable estimate of wind radii. Results indicate that, even under the most optimistic assumptions, models with horizontal grid spacing of 1/4 degree or coarser should not produce a realistic number of category 4 and 5 storms unless there are errors in spatial attributes of the wind field. Furthermore, models with a grid spacing of 1/4 degree or greater are unlikely to systematically discriminate hurricanes with differing intensity. Finally, for simple wind profiles, it is shown how an accurate representation of maximum wind on a coarse grid will lead to an overestimate of horizontally integrated kinetic energy by a factor of two or more.

Synoptic and climatological aspects of extra-tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G. C.

2010-09-01

Mid-latitude cyclones are highly complex dynamical features embedded in the general atmospheric circulation of the extra-tropics. Although the basic mechanisms leading to the formation of cyclones are commonly understood, the specific conditions and physical reasons triggering extreme, partly explosive development, are still under investigation. This includes also the identification of processes which might modulate the frequency and intensity of cyclone systems on time scales from days to centennials. This overview presentation will thus focus on three main topics: Firstly, the dynamic-synoptic structures of cyclones, the possibility to objectively identify cyclones and wind storms, and actual statistical properties of cyclone occurrence under recent climate conditions are addressed. In a second part, aspects of the interannual variability and its causing mechanisms are related to the seasonal predictability of extreme cyclones producing severe storm events. Extending the time frame will mean to deduce information on decadal or even centennial time periods. Thus, actual work to decadal as well as climatological variability and changes will be presented. In the last part of the talk focus will be laid on potential socio-economical impacts of changed cyclone occurrence. By means of global and regional climate modeling, future damages in terms of insured losses will be investigated and measures of uncertainty estimated from a multi-model ensemble analysis will be presented.

Assessing the impact of cyclones in the coastal zone of Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolf, Judith; Bricheno, Lucy; Chowdury, Shahad; Rahman, Munsur; Ghosh, Tuhin; Kay, Susan; Caesar, John

2014-05-01

We review the state of knowledge regarding tropical cyclones and their impacts on coastal ecosystems, as well as the livelihood and health of the coastal communities, under the present and future climate, with application to the coastal zone of Bangladesh. This region is particularly vulnerable to tropical cyclones as it is very low-lying and densely populated. Cyclones cause damage due to the high wind speed and also the ensuing storm surge, which causes inundation and salinity intrusion into agricultural land and contaminates fresh water. The world's largest mangrove forest, the Sundarbans, protects the coast of the Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna (BGM) delta from these cyclonic storms but mangroves are themselves vulnerable to cyclone damage, as in 2007 when ~36% of the mangrove area was severely damaged leading to further losses of livelihood. We apply an idealised cyclone model and use the winds and pressures from this model to drive a storm surge model in the Bay of Bengal, in order to examine the impact of the intensity, track speed and landfall of the cyclones in terms of surge and inundation. The model is tested by reproducing the track and intensity of Cyclone Sidr of 2007. We also examine the projected future climate from the South Asia Regional Climate Model to understand how tropical cyclones may change under global warming and assess how this may impact the BGM Delta over the 21st century.

Hurricanes and Climate: the U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walsh, Kevin; Camargo, Suzana J.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Daloz, Anne Sophie; Elsner, James; Emanuel, Kerry; Horn, Michael; Lim, Young-Kwon; Roberts, Malcolm; Patricola, Christina;

The influence of an atmospheric Two-Way coupled model system on the predictability of extratropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuster, Mareike; Thürkow, Markus; Weiher, Stefan; Kirchner, Ingo; Ulbrich, Uwe; Will, Andreas

2016-04-01

A general bias of global atmosphere ocean models, and also of the MPI-ESM, is an under-representation of the high latitude cyclone activity and an overestimation of the mid latitude cyclone activity in the North Atlantic, thus representing the extra-tropical storm track too zonal. We will show, that this effect can be antagonized by applying an atmospheric Two-Way Coupling (TWC). In this study we present a newly developed Two-Way Coupled model system, which is based on the MPI-ESM, and show that it is able to capture the mean storm track location more accurate. It also influences the sub-decadal deterministic predictability of extra-tropical cyclones and shows significantly enhanced skill compared to the "uncoupled" MPI-ESM standalone system. This study evaluates a set of hindcast experiments performed with said Two-Way Coupled model system. The regional model COSMO CLM is Two-Way Coupled to the atmosphere of the global Max-Plack-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and therefore integrates and exchanges the state of the atmosphere every 10 minutes (MPI-TWC-ESM). In the coupled source region (North Atlantic), mesoscale processes which are relevant for the formation and early-stage development of cyclones are expected to be better represented, and therefore influence the large scale dynamics of the target region (Europe). The database covers 102 "uncoupled" years and 102 Two-Way Coupled years of the recent climate (1960-2010). Results are validated against the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Besides the climatological point of view, the design of this single model ensemble allows for an analysis of the predictability of the first and second leadyears of the hindcasts. As a first step to understand the improved predictability of cyclones, we will show a detailed analysis of climatologies for specific cyclone categories, sorted by season and region. Especially for cyclones affecting Europe, the TWC is capable to counteract the AOGCM's biases in the North Atlantic. Also, cyclones which are generated in the northern North Atlantic and the Labrador Sea are to an extraordinary extent underestimated in the "uncoupled" MPI-ESM - for the latter region the TWC can balance this shortcoming. In the Northern Hemisphere annual mean statistics the TWC does not change the distribution of the strength of cyclones, but it changes the distribution of the lifetime of cyclones.

The Use of Red Green Blue Air Mass Imagery to Investigate the Role of Stratospheric Air in a Non-Convective Wind Event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berndt, E. B.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Moltham, A. L.; Folmer, M. J.; Jedlovec, G. J.

2014-01-01

The investigation of non-convective winds associated with passing extratropical cyclones and the formation of the sting jet in North Atlantic cyclones that impact Europe has been gaining interest. Sting jet research has been limited to North Atlantic cyclones that impact Europe because it is known to occur in Shapiro-Keyser cyclones and theory suggests it does not occur in Norwegian type cyclones. The global distribution of sting jet cyclones is unknown and questions remain as to whether cyclones with Shapiro-Keyser characteristics that impact the United States develop features similar to the sting jet. Therefore unique National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) products were used to analyze an event that impacted the Northeast United States on 09 February 2013. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Red Green Blue (RGB) Air Mass imagery and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) ozone data were used in conjunction with NASA's global Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis and higher-resolution regional 13-km Rapid Refresh (RAP) data to analyze the role of stratospheric air in producing high winds. The RGB Air Mass imagery and a new AIRS ozone anomaly product were used to confirm the presence of stratospheric air. Plan view and cross sectional plots of wind, potential vorticity, relative humidity, omega, and frontogenesis were used to analyze the relationship between stratospheric air and high surface winds during the event. Additionally, the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model was used to plot trajectories to determine the role of the conveyor belts in producing the high winds. Analyses of new satellite products, such as the RGB Air Mass imagery, show the utility of future GOES-R products in forecasting non-convective wind events.

Westward migration of tropical cyclone rapid-intensification over the Northwestern Pacific during short duration El Niño.

PubMed

Guo, Yi-Peng; Tan, Zhe-Min

2018-04-17

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can significantly affect the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific (WNP). However, ENSO events have various durations, which can lead to different atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Here we show that during short duration El Niño events, the WNP tropical cyclone rapid-intensification mean occurrence position migrates westward by ~8.0° longitude, which is caused by reduced vertical wind shear, increased mid-tropospheric humidity, and enhanced tropical cyclone heat potential over the westernmost WNP. The changes in these factors are caused by westward advected upper ocean heat during the decaying phase of a short duration El Niño. As super El Niño events tend to have short durations and their frequency is projected to increase under global warming, our findings have important implications for future projections of WNP tropical cyclone activity.

A case study of GWE satellite data impact on GLA assimilation analyses of two ocean cyclones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gallimore, R. G.; Johnson, D. R.

1986-01-01

The effects of the Global Weather Experiment (GWE) data obtained on January 18-20, 1979 on Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres assimilation analyses of simultaneous cyclones in the western Pacific and Atlantic oceans are examined. The ability of satellite data within assimilation models to determine the baroclinic structures of developing extratropical cyclones is evaluated. The impact of the satellite data on the amplitude and phase of the temperature structure within the storm domain, potential energy, and baroclinic growth rate is studied. The GWE data are compared with Data Systems Test results. It is noted that it is necessary to characterize satellite effects on the baroclinic structure of cyclone waves which degrade numerical weather predictions of cyclogenesis.

A review of tropical cyclone-generated storm surges: Global data sources, observations, and impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Needham, Hal F.; Keim, Barry D.; Sathiaraj, David

2015-06-01

Tropical cyclone-generated storm surges are among the world's most deadly and destructive natural hazards. This paper provides the first comprehensive global review of tropical storm surge data sources, observations, and impacts while archiving data in SURGEDAT, a global database. Available literature has provided data for more than 700 surge events since 1880, the majority of which are found in the western North Atlantic (WNA), followed by Australia/Oceania, the western North Pacific (WNP), and the northern Indian Ocean (NIO). The Bay of Bengal (BOB) in the NIO consistently observes the world's highest surges, as this subbasin averages five surges ≥5 m per decade and has observed credible storm tide levels reaching 13.7 m. The WNP observes the highest rate of low-magnitude surges, as the coast of China averages 54 surges ≥1 m per decade, and rates are likely higher in the Philippines. The U.S. Gulf Coast observes the second highest frequency of both high-magnitude (≥5 m) and low-magnitude (≥1 m) surges. The BOB observes the most catastrophic surge impacts, as 59% of global tropical cyclones that have killed at least 5000 people occurred in this basin. The six deadliest cyclones in this region have each killed at least 140,000 people, and two events have killed 300,000. Storm surge impacts transportation, agriculture, and energy sectors in the WNA. Oceania experiences long-term impacts, including contamination of fresh water and loss of food supplies, although the highest surges in this region are lower than most other basins.

Ocean barrier layers’ effect on tropical cyclone intensification

PubMed Central

Balaguru, Karthik; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R.; Leung, L. Ruby; Xu, Zhao; Li, Mingkui; Hsieh, Jen-Shan

2012-01-01

Improving a tropical cyclone’s forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the cyclone’s path and intensity. Herein, using a combination of observations and model simulations, we systematically demonstrate that tropical cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are “quasi-permanent” features in the upper tropical oceans. When tropical cyclones pass over regions with barrier layers, the increased stratification and stability within the layer reduce storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface temperature cooling. This causes an increase in enthalpy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and, consequently, an intensification of tropical cyclones. On average, the tropical cyclone intensification rate is nearly 50% higher over regions with barrier layers, compared to regions without. Our finding, which underscores the importance of observing not only the upper-ocean thermal structure but also the salinity structure in deep tropical barrier layer regions, may be a key to more skillful predictions of tropical cyclone intensities through improved ocean state estimates and simulations of barrier layer processes. As the hydrological cycle responds to global warming, any associated changes in the barrier layer distribution must be considered in projecting future tropical cyclone activity. PMID:22891298

Predicting the trajectories and intensities of hurricanes by applying machine learning techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sujithkumar, A.; King, A. W.; Kovilakam, M.; Graves, D.

2017-12-01

The world has witnessed an escalation of devastating hurricanes and tropical cyclones over the last three decades. Hurricanes and tropical cyclones of very high magnitude will likely be even more frequent in a warmer world. Thus, precise forecasting of the track and intensity of hurricane/tropical cyclones remains one of the meteorological community's top priorities. However, comprehensive prediction of hurricane/ tropical cyclone is a difficult problem due to the many complexities of underlying physical processes with many variables and complex relations. The availability of global meteorological and hurricane/tropical storm climatological data opens new opportunities for data-driven approaches to hurricane/tropical cyclone modeling. Here we report initial results from two data-driven machine learning techniques, specifically, random forest (RF) and Bayesian learning (BL) to predict the trajectory and intensity of hurricanes and tropical cyclones. We used International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) data along with weather data from NOAA in a 50 km buffer surrounding each of the reported hurricane and tropical cyclone tracts to train the model. Initial results reveal that both RF and BL are skillful in predicting storm intensity. We will also present results for the more complicated trajectory prediction.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Move to AIT

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-11-17

At Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, an Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket is placed on an assembly integration transporter for the move from the hangar at Building 1555 to be mated to L-1011 carrier aircraft near Vandenberg's runway. On board Pegasus are eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. When preparations are competed at Vandenberg, the L-1011/Pegasus XL combination will be flown to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. On Dec. 12, 2016, the carrier aircraft is scheduled to take off from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket with the L-1011 flying off shore. CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Departure from VAFB

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-02

At Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the Orbital ATK L-1011 Stargazer, with a Pegasus XL rocket mated to the underside of the aircraft, is prepared for takeoff. On board Pegasus XL are eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. When preparations are competed at Vandenberg, the /Pegasus XL combination will be flown to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. On Dec. 12, 2016, the carrier aircraft is scheduled to take off from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket with the L-1011 flying off shore. CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will help scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a crucial role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Mate to L-1011

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-11-28

At Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, an Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket is transported to be mated to the company's L-1011 carrier aircraft near Vandenberg's runway. On board Pegasus are eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. When preparations are competed at Vandenberg, the L-1011/Pegasus XL combination will be flown to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. On Dec. 12, 2016, the carrier aircraft is scheduled to take off from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket with the L-1011 flying off shore. CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Rollout

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-11-28

At Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, an Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket is transported from the hangar at Building 1555 to be mated to L-1011 carrier aircraft near Vandenberg's runway. On board Pegasus are eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. When preparations are competed at Vandenberg, the L-1011/Pegasus XL combination will be flown to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. On Dec. 12, 2016, the carrier aircraft is scheduled to take off from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket with the L-1011 flying off shore. CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Microsats Installation on Deployment Module

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-11

Inside Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) deployment module is inspected prior to installation of eight spacecraft that will be part of the program’s constellation of spacecraft. Processing activities will prepare the spacecraft for launch aboard an Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket. When preparations are competed at Vandenberg, the rocket will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft with in its payload fairing. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Departure from VAFB

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-02

An Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket is mated to the underside of the company's L-1011 Stargazer aircraft. The Stargazer is being prepared for takeoff from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. On board Pegasus XL are eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. When preparations are competed at Vandenberg, the /Pegasus XL combination will be flown to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. On Dec. 12, 2016, the carrier aircraft is scheduled to take off from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket with the L-1011 flying off shore. CYGNSS satellites will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will help scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a crucial role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Final Wing Installation

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-09-28

Inside Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, technicians and engineers perform final wing installations on the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will launch eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. When preparations are completed at Vandenberg, the rocket, with CYGNSS in its payload fairing, will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft and transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. On Dec. 12, 2016, the carrier aircraft is scheduled to take off from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket with the L-1011 flying off shore. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-09-15

Inside Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, technicians and engineers install the first stage aft skirt on the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will launch eight NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft. When preparations are completed at Vandenberg, the rocket, with CYGNSS in its payload fairing, will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft and transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. On Dec. 12, 2016, the carrier aircraft is scheduled to take off from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket with the L-1011 flying off shore. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Fairing Mate and Black Light Test

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-11-14

Technicians with Orbital ATK have installed the first half of the Pegasus XL fairing around NASA’s Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) in Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. Work is underway to install the second half of the fairing. CYGNSS is being prepared at Vandenberg, and then will be transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida aboard the Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket which will be attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

Changes of Mediterranean cyclones in the future climate employing high resolution climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatzaki, M.; Flocas, H. A.; Kouroutzoglou, J.; Keay, K.; Simmonds, I.; Giannakopoulos, C. A.; Brikolas, V.

2011-12-01

A number of studies suggest that cyclone activity over both hemispheres has changed over the second half of the 20th century. The assessment of the future changes of the cyclonic activity as imposed by global warming conditions is very important since these cyclones can be associated with extreme precipitation conditions, severe storms and floods. This is more important for the Mediterranean that has been found to be more vulnerable to climate change. The main objective of the current study is to better understand and assess future changes in the main characteristics of Mediterranean cyclones, including temporal and spatial variations of frequency of cyclonic tracks, and dynamic and kinematic parameters, such as intensity, size, propagation velocity, as well as trend analysis. For this purpose, the MPI-HH regional coupled climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology is employed consisting of the REgional atmosphere MOdel (REMO), the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology ocean model (MPI-OM) and the Hydrological Discharge Model (HD Model). A 25 km resolution domain is established on a rotated latitude-longitude coordinate system, while the physical parameterizations are taken from the global climate model ECHAM-4. These model data became available through the EU Project CIRCE which aims to perform, for the first time, climate change projections with a realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea. The model results for the present climate are evaluated against ERA-40 Reanalysis (available through ECMWF), for the period 1962-2001. The identification and tracking of cyclones is performed with the aid of the Melbourne University algorithm (MS algorithm), according to the Lagrangian perspective. MS algorithm characterizes a cyclone only if a vorticity maximum could be connected with a local pressure minimum. According to the results, a decrease of the storm number and a tendency towards deeper cyclones is expected in the future, in general agreement with the results of previous studies. However, new findings reveal with respect to the dynamic/kinematic characteristics of the cyclonic tracks. The model experiments verify that considerable inter-monthly variations of track density occur in the Mediterranean region. The study of the kinematic and dynamic parameters of the cyclonic tracks according to their origin domain show that the vast majority originate within the examined area itself. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: M. Hatzaki would like to thank the Greek State Scholarships Foundation for financial support through the program of postdoctoral research. The support of EU-FP6 project CIRCE Integrated Project-Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment (http://www.circeproject.eu) for climate model data provision is also greatly acknowledged.

Convection in Extratropical Cyclones: Analysis of GPM, NexRAD, GCMs and Re-Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeyaratnam, J.; Booth, J. F.; Naud, C. M.; Luo, J.

2017-12-01

Extratropical Cyclones (ETCs) are the most common cause of extreme precipitation in mid-latitudes and are important in the general atmospheric circulation as they redistribute moisture and heat. Isentropic lifting, upright convection, and slantwise convection are mechanisms of vertical motion within an ETC, which deliver different rain rates and might respond differently to global warming. In this study we compare different metrics for identifying convection within the ETC's and calculate the relative contribution of convection to total ETC precipitation. We determine if convection occurs preferentially in specific regions of the storm and decide how to best utilize GPM retrievals covering other parts of the mid-latitudes. Additionally, mid-latitude cyclones are tracked and composites of these tracked cyclones are compared amongst multiple versions of Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) prototype models and re-analysis data; Model Diagnostic Task Force (MDTF) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) using a two-plume convection scheme, MDTF GFDL using the Donner convection scheme, Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), and European Reanalysis produced by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

The Human Impact of Tropical Cyclones: a Historical Review of Events 1980-2009 and Systematic Literature Review

PubMed Central

Doocy, Shannon; Dick, Anna; Daniels, Amy; Kirsch, Thomas D.

2013-01-01

Background. Cyclones have significantly affected populations in Southeast Asia, the Western Pacific, and the Americas over the past quarter of a century. Future vulnerability to cyclones will increase due to factors including population growth, urbanization, increasing coastal settlement, and global warming. The objectives of this review were to describe the impact of cyclones on human populations in terms of mortality, injury, and displacement and, to the extent possible, identify risk factors associated with these outcomes. This is one of five reviews on the human impact of natural disasters. Methods. Data on the impact of cyclones were compiled using two methods, a historical review from 1980 to 2009 of cyclone events from multiple databases and a systematic literature review of publications ending in October 2012. Analysis included descriptive statistics and bivariate tests for associations between cyclone characteristics and mortality using Stata 11.0. Findings. There were 412,644 deaths, 290,654 injured, and 466.1 million people affected by cyclones between 1980 and 2009, and the mortality and injury burden was concentrated in less developed nations of Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific. Inconsistent reporting suggests this is an underestimate, particularly in terms of the injured and affected populations. The primary cause of cyclone-related mortality is drowning; in developed countries male gender was associated with increased mortality risk, whereas females experienced higher mortality in less developed countries. Conclusions. Additional attention to preparedness and early warning, particularly in Asia, can lessen the impact of future cyclones. PMID:23857074

Aerosol midlatitude cyclone indirect effects in observations and high-resolution simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCoy, Daniel T.; Field, Paul R.; Schmidt, Anja; Grosvenor, Daniel P.; Bender, Frida A.-M.; Shipway, Ben J.; Hill, Adrian A.; Wilkinson, Jonathan M.; Elsaesser, Gregory S.

2018-04-01

Aerosol-cloud interactions are a major source of uncertainty in inferring the climate sensitivity from the observational record of temperature. The adjustment of clouds to aerosol is a poorly constrained aspect of these aerosol-cloud interactions. Here, we examine the response of midlatitude cyclone cloud properties to a change in cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Idealized experiments in high-resolution, convection-permitting global aquaplanet simulations with constant CDNC are compared to 13 years of remote-sensing observations. Observations and idealized aquaplanet simulations agree that increased warm conveyor belt (WCB) moisture flux into cyclones is consistent with higher cyclone liquid water path (CLWP). When CDNC is increased a larger LWP is needed to give the same rain rate. The LWP adjusts to allow the rain rate to be equal to the moisture flux into the cyclone along the WCB. This results in an increased CLWP for higher CDNC at a fixed WCB moisture flux in both observations and simulations. If observed cyclones in the top and bottom tercile of CDNC are contrasted it is found that they have not only higher CLWP but also cloud cover and albedo. The difference in cyclone albedo between the cyclones in the top and bottom third of CDNC is observed by CERES to be between 0.018 and 0.032, which is consistent with a 4.6-8.3 Wm-2 in-cyclone enhancement in upwelling shortwave when scaled by annual-mean insolation. Based on a regression model to observed cyclone properties, roughly 60 % of the observed variability in CLWP can be explained by CDNC and WCB moisture flux.

Hurricanes and Climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walsh, Kevin J. E.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.

While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and to understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR). This work, combined with results frommore » other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as midtropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences are shown between experiments in which only sea surface temperature is increased compared with experiments where only atmospheric carbon dioxide is increased. Experiments where only carbon dioxide is increased are more likely to demonstrate a decrease in tropical cyclone numbers, similar to the decreases simulated by many climate models for a future, warmer climate. Experiments where the two effects are combined also show decreases in numbers, but these tend to be less for models that demonstrate a strong tropical cyclone response to increased sea surface temperatures. Lastly, further experiments are proposed that may improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation, including experiments with two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and variations in atmospheric aerosols.« less

Hurricanes and Climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes

DOE PAGES

Walsh, Kevin J. E.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; ...

2015-06-01

While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and to understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR). This work, combined with results frommore » other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as midtropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences are shown between experiments in which only sea surface temperature is increased compared with experiments where only atmospheric carbon dioxide is increased. Experiments where only carbon dioxide is increased are more likely to demonstrate a decrease in tropical cyclone numbers, similar to the decreases simulated by many climate models for a future, warmer climate. Experiments where the two effects are combined also show decreases in numbers, but these tend to be less for models that demonstrate a strong tropical cyclone response to increased sea surface temperatures. Lastly, further experiments are proposed that may improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation, including experiments with two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and variations in atmospheric aerosols.« less

Statistical Detection of Anthropogenic Temporal Changes in the Distribution of Tropical Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joannes-boyau, R.; Bodin, T.; Scheffers, A.; Sambridge, M.

2012-12-01

Recent studies highlighting the potential impact of climate change on tropical cyclones have added fuel to the already controversial debates. The link between climate change and tropical cyclone intensity and frequency has been disputed, as both appear to remain in the natural variability. The difficulty lies in our ability to distinguish natural changes from anthropogenic-induced anomalies. The increased anthropogenic atmospheric carbon dioxide leads to environmental changes such as warmer Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) and thus could impact tropical cyclones intensities and frequencies. However, recent studies show that, against an increasing SST, no global trend in respect to cyclone frequency has yet emerged. Scientists have warned to consider the heterogeneity of the existing dataset; especially since the historical tropical cyclone record is frequently accused to be incomplete. Given the abundance of cyclone record data and its likely sensitivity to a number of environmental factors, the real limitation comes from our ability to understand the record as a whole. Thus, strong arguments against the impartiality of proposed models are often debated. We will present an impartial and independent statistical tool applicable to a wide variety of physical and biological phenomena such as processes described by power laws, to observe temporal variations in the tropical cyclone track record from 1842 to 2010. This methodology allows us to observe the impact of anthropogenic-induced modifications on climatic events, without being clustered in subjective parameterised models.

Statistical Characteristic of Global Tropical Cyclone Looping Motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, W.; Song, J.; Wang, Y.

2016-12-01

Statistical characteristic of looping motion of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Western North Pacific (WPAC), North Atlantic (NATL), Eastern North Pacific (EPAC), Northern Indian Ocean (NIO), Southern Indian Ocean (SIO) and South Pacific (SPAC) basins are investigated by using IBTrACS archive maintained by NOAA. From global perspective, about ten percent TCs experience a looping motion in the above six basins. The southern hemisphere (SH) including SIO and SPAC basins have higher looping percentage than the northern hemisphere (NH), while the EPAC basin has the least looping percentage. The interannual variation of the number of looping TCs are significantly correlated with that of total TCs in the NATL, SIO and SPAC basins, while there are no correlations between the EPAC and NIO basins. The numbers of looping TCs have a higher percentage in the early and late cyclone season in the NH rather than the peak period of cyclone season, while the SIO and SPAC basins have the higher looping percentage in the early and late cyclone season, respectively. The looping motion of TCs mainly concentrates on the scale of tropical depression to category 2 and has its peak value on the scale of tropical storm. The looping motion appears more frequently and has a higher percentage at the pre-mature stage than the post-mature stage of TCs in most basins except EPAC. Comparing the intensity and intensity variation caused by the looping motion, the weaker TCs tend to intensify after looping, while the more intense ones weaken.

Wave ensemble forecast system for tropical cyclones in the Australian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zieger, Stefan; Greenslade, Diana; Kepert, Jeffrey D.

2018-05-01

Forecasting of waves under extreme conditions such as tropical cyclones is vitally important for many offshore industries, but there remain many challenges. For Northwest Western Australia (NW WA), wave forecasts issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology have previously been limited to products from deterministic operational wave models forced by deterministic atmospheric models. The wave models are run over global (resolution 1/4∘) and regional (resolution 1/10∘) domains with forecast ranges of + 7 and + 3 day respectively. Because of this relatively coarse resolution (both in the wave models and in the forcing fields), the accuracy of these products is limited under tropical cyclone conditions. Given this limited accuracy, a new ensemble-based wave forecasting system for the NW WA region has been developed. To achieve this, a new dedicated 8-km resolution grid was nested in the global wave model. Over this grid, the wave model is forced with winds from a bias-corrected European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast atmospheric ensemble that comprises 51 ensemble members to take into account the uncertainties in location, intensity and structure of a tropical cyclone system. A unique technique is used to select restart files for each wave ensemble member. The system is designed to operate in real time during the cyclone season providing + 10-day forecasts. This paper will describe the wave forecast components of this system and present the verification metrics and skill for specific events.

Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the Interannual Variability of Baiu Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamaura, T.; Tomita, T.

2011-12-01

This work examines the contribution of tropical cyclones to the interannual variability of Baiu precipitation with the large-scale interannual variations in the tropics, that is, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO) in the Asian monsoon. The data used are the Global Precipitation Climatology Project, the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis Project/Japan Meteorological Agency Climate Data Assimilation System, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The diagnosed months and the time period are June and July, and 30 years from 1979 to 2008. When the negative precipitation anomalies appear in the entire Baiu front with the cold ENSO phase, the number of tropical cyclones increases around the northern part of the Philippines, and a larger-scale anomalous cyclone is formed there. Tropical cyclones contribute to strengthening the anomalous cyclone. Anomalous convective activity in the anomalous cyclone excites Rossby waves that propagate northward within the low-level jet and form an anomalous anticyclone around Japan. The anomalous anticyclone decreases the Baiu precipitation. On the other hand, the number of tropical cyclones decreases, and an anomalous anticyclone is set around the northern part of the Philippines, when the positive precipitation anomalies are observed in the Baiu front with the warm ENSO phase. The contribution of tropical cyclones is insignificant in this phase. The warm and cold TBO phases are judged from sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial central Pacific that is different from the region for ENSO. In the cold TBO phase with the negative SST anomalies, there appear the negative precipitation anomalies around Kyushu and the positive ones to the southeast of Japan. Concurrently, an anomalous cyclone appears, and the accumulated cyclone energy estimated from the tropical cyclones increases to the southeast of Japan. Tropical cyclones contribute to forming the anomalous cyclone, which shifts the axis of monsoon southwesterlies southward. Thus, the negative precipitation anomalies and the positive ones appear in Kyushu and to the southeast of Japan. In the opposite TBO phase, an anomalous anticyclone is set to the southeast of Japan and suppresses tropical cyclones there. The contribution of tropical cyclones is small in this case. As such, local tropical cyclones contribute to the interannual variation of the Baiu precipitation with larger atmospheric circulations in the western North Pacific.

Developing an enhanced tropical cyclone data portal for the Southern Hemisphere and the Western Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuleshov, Yuriy; de Wit, Roald; Atalifo, Terry; Prakash, Bipendra; Waqaicelua, Alipate; Kunitsugu, Masashi; Caroff, Philippe; Chane-Ming, Fabrice

2013-04-01

Tropical cyclones are the most extreme weather phenomena which severely impact coastal communities and island nations. There is an ongoing research (i) on accurate analysis of observed trends in tropical cyclone occurrences, and (ii) how tropical cyclone frequency and intensity may change in the future as a result of climate change. Reliable historical records of cyclone activity are vital for this research. The Pacific Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) program is dedicated to help Pacific Island countries and Timor Leste gain a better understanding of how climate change will impact their regions. One of the key PACCSAP projects is focused on developing a tropical cyclone archive, climatology and seasonal prediction for the regions. As part of the project, historical tropical cyclone best track data have been examined and prepared to be subsequently displayed through the enhanced tropical cyclone data portal for the Southern Hemisphere and the Western Pacific Ocean. Data from the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) Nadi, Fiji and Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWCs) in Brisbane, Darwin and Wellington for 1969-1970 to 2010-2011 tropical cyclone seasons have been carefully examined. Errors and inconsistencies which have been found during the quality control procedure have been corrected. To produce a consolidated data set for the South Pacific Ocean, best track data from these four centres have been used. Specifically, for 1969-1970 to 1994-1995 tropical cyclone seasons, data from TCWCs in Brisbane, Darwin and Wellington have been used. In 1995, RSMC Nadi, Fiji has been established with responsibilities for issuing tropical cyclone warnings and preparing best track data for the area south of the equator to 25°S, 160°E to 120°W. Consequently, data from RSMC Nadi have been used as a primary source for this area, starting from the 1995-1996 tropical cyclone season. These data have been combined with the data from TCWC Wellington for the area 25°S to 40°S, 160°E to 120°W and with the data from TCWCs in Brisbane and Darwin for the area south of the equator to 37°S, 135°E to 160°E. In addition, tropical cyclone best track data for the North-West Pacific for 1977-2011 seasons prepared at RSMC Tokyo and for the South Indian Ocean for 1969-2011 prepared at RSMC la Réunion have been added to the dataset. As a result, new design of the Southern Hemisphere/Pacific Tropical Cyclone Data Portal (http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/tracks/) incorporates best track data for the Western Pacific both south and north of the equator and for the South Indian Ocean. The portal has been developed using the OpenLayers web mapping library. Main features of the portal include dynamic map navigation, presenting detailed cyclone information for a selected region in the Southern Hemisphere and North-West Pacific and displaying changes in tropical cyclone intensity over the lifetime of a cyclone. One of the unique features of the portal is its enhanced functionality for spatial and temporal selection for cyclones in selected areas (e.g. economic exclusion zones of the countries). Acknowledgement The research discussed in this paper was conducted through the PACCSAP supported by the AusAID and the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency and delivered by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO. We acknowledge C. Shamsu, D. Duong, P. Lopatecki, W. Banerjee, P. He, P. Wickramasinghe and A. Bauers from the School of Computer Sciences and IT at the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University, Melbourne, Australia for their contribution to the development of the portal's functionality on spatial selection.

The short-term impacts of a cyclone on seagrass communities in Southwest Madagascar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Côté-Laurin, Marie-Claude; Benbow, Sophie; Erzini, Karim

2017-04-01

Cyclones are large-scale disturbances with highly destructive potential in coastal ecosystems. On February 22, 2013, a powerful tropical cyclone made landfall on the southwest coast of Madagascar, a region which is infrequently hit by such extreme weather events coming from the Mozambique Channel. Seagrass ecosystems, which provide valuable ecosystems services to local communities, are especially vulnerable because they thrive in shallow waters. The impact of Cyclone Haruna on seagrass diversity, height and coverage and associated fish diversity, abundance and biomass was assessed in 3 sites near Andavadoaka (22°07‧S, 43°23‧E) before and after the event using fish underwater visual census, video-transects, and seagrass quadrats. The cyclone caused a significant loss in seagrass cover at all 3 sites. Thalassia hemprichii and Syringodium isoetifolium were the most affected species. Andavadoaka beach, the most exposed site, which was also subject to human use and was most fragmented, suffered the largest negative effects of the cyclone. Cyclone Haruna was not found to significantly affect fish assemblages, which are highly mobile organisms able to use a diversity of niches and adjacent habitats after seagrass fragmentation. Extensive sampling and longer time-scale studies would be needed to fully evaluate the cyclone impact on communities of seagrass and fish, and track potential recovery in seagrass coverage. The intensity and destructive potential of cyclones is expected to increase with global warming, which is of concern for developing countries that encompass most of the world's seagrass beds. This study provided a unique and key opportunity to monitor immediate impacts of an extreme disturbance in a region where cyclones rarely hit coastal ecosystems and where local populations remain highly dependent on seagrass meadows.

The CYGNSS flight segment; A major NASA science mission enabled by micro-satellite technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, R.; Ruf, C.; Rose, D.; Brummitt, M.; Ridley, A.

While hurricane track forecasts have improved in accuracy by ~50% since 1990, there has been essentially no improvement in the accuracy of intensity prediction. This lack of progress is thought to be caused by inadequate observations and modeling of the inner core due to two causes: 1) much of the inner core ocean surface is obscured from conventional remote sensing instruments by intense precipitation in the inner rain bands and 2) the rapidly evolving stages of the tropical cyclone (TC) life cycle are poorly sampled in time by conventional polar-orbiting, wide-swath surface wind imagers. NASA's most recently awarded Earth science mission, the NASA EV-2 Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) has been designed to address these deficiencies by combining the all-weather performance of GNSS bistatic ocean surface scatterometry with the sampling properties of a satellite constellation. This paper provides an overview of the CYGNSS flight segment requirements, implementation, and concept of operations for the CYGNSS constellation; consisting of 8 microsatellite-class spacecraft (<; 100kg) each hosting a GNSS receiver, operating in a 500 km orbit, inclined at 35° to provide 70% coverage of the historical TC track. The CYGNSS mission is enabled by modern electronic technology; it is an example of how nanosatellite technology can be applied to replace traditional "old school" solutions at significantly reduced cost while providing an increase in performance. This paper provides an overview of how we combined a reliable space-flight proven avionics design with selected microsatellite components to create an innovative, low-cost solution for a mainstream science investigation.

The NASA EV-2 CYGNSS Small Satellite Constellation Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruf, C. S.; Gleason, S.; Jelenak, Z.; Katzberg, S. J.; Ridley, A. J.; Rose, R.; Scherrer, J.; Zavorotny, V.

2012-12-01

The NASA EV-2 Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) is a spaceborne mission focused on tropical cyclone (TC) inner core process studies. CYGNSS attempts to resolve the principle deficiencies with current TC intensity forecasts, which lies in inadequate observations and modeling of the inner core. The inadequacy in observations results from two causes: 1) Much of the inner core ocean surface is obscured from conventional remote sensing instruments by intense precipitation in the eye wall and inner rain bands. 2) The rapidly evolving (genesis and intensification) stages of the TC life cycle are poorly sampled in time by conventional polar-orbiting, wide-swath surface wind imagers. CYGNSS is specifically designed to address these two limitations by combining the all-weather performance of GNSS bistatic ocean surface scatterometry with the sampling properties of a constellation of satellites. The use of a dense constellation of nanosatellite results in spatial and temporal sampling properties that are markedly different from conventional imagers. Simulation studies will be presented which examine the sampling as functions of various orbit parameters of the constellation. Historical records of actual TC storm tracks are overlaid onto a simulated time series of the surface wind sampling enabled by the constellation. For comparison purposes, a similar analysis is conducted using the sampling properties of several past and present conventional spaceborne ocean wind scatterometers. Differences in the ability of the sensors to resolve the evolution of the TC inner core are examined. The spacecraft and constellation mission are described. The signal-to-noise ratio of the measured scattered signal and the resulting uncertainty in retrieved surface wind speed are also examined.

Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Models of the Present Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Jonas, Jeffery A.; Kim, Daeyhun; Kumar, Arun; LaRow, Timothy E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Roberts, Malcolm J.;

Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones in High-resolution Models in the Present Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Jonas, Jeffrey A.; Kim, Daehyun; Kumar, Arun; LaRow, Timothy E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Reed, Kevin;

Analyzing the Response of Climate Perturbations to (Tropical) Cyclones using the WRF Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tewari, M.; Mittal, R.; Radhakrishnan, C.; Cipriani, J.; Watson, C.

2015-12-01

An analysis of global climate models shows considerable changes in the intensity and characteristics of future, warm climate cyclones. At regional scales, deviations in cyclone characteristics are often derived using idealized perturbations in the humidity, temperature and surface conditions. In this work, a more realistic approach is adopted by applying climate perturbations from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) to ERA-interim data to generate the initial and boundary conditions for future climate simulations. The climate signal perturbations are generated from the differences in 21 years of mean data from CCSM4 with representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5) for the periods: (a) 2070-2090 (future climate), (b) 2025-2045 (near-future climate) and (c) 1985-2005 (current climate). Four individual cyclone cases are simulated with and without climate perturbations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with a nested configuration. Each cyclone is characterized by variations in intensity, landfall location, precipitation and societal damage. To calculate societal damage, we use the recently introduced Cyclone Damage Potential (CDP) index evolved from the Willis Hurricane Index (WHI). As CDP has been developed for general societal applications, this work should provide useful insights for resilience analyses and industry (e.g., re-insurance).

Anticyclonic eddies are more productive than cyclonic eddies in subtropical gyres because of winter mixing.

PubMed

Dufois, François; Hardman-Mountford, Nick J; Greenwood, Jim; Richardson, Anthony J; Feng, Ming; Matear, Richard J

2016-05-01

Mesoscale eddies are ubiquitous features of ocean circulation that modulate the supply of nutrients to the upper sunlit ocean, influencing the rates of carbon fixation and export. The popular eddy-pumping paradigm implies that nutrient fluxes are enhanced in cyclonic eddies because of upwelling inside the eddy, leading to higher phytoplankton production. We show that this view does not hold for a substantial portion of eddies within oceanic subtropical gyres, the largest ecosystems in the ocean. Using space-based measurements and a global biogeochemical model, we demonstrate that during winter when subtropical eddies are most productive, there is increased chlorophyll in anticyclones compared with cyclones in all subtropical gyres (by 3.6 to 16.7% for the five basins). The model suggests that this is a consequence of the modulation of winter mixing by eddies. These results establish a new paradigm for anticyclonic eddies in subtropical gyres and could have important implications for the biological carbon pump and the global carbon cycle.

Global warming hiatus contributed to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia.

PubMed

Zhao, Jiuwei; Zhan, Ruifen; Wang, Yuqing

2018-04-16

The recent global warming hiatus (GWH) was characterized by a La Niña-like cooling in the tropical Eastern Pacific accompanied with the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming. Here we show that the recent GWH contributed significantly to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia since 1998. The GWH associated sea surface temperature anomalies triggered a pair of anomalous cyclonic and anticyclonic circulations and equatorial easterly anomalies over the Northwest Pacific, which favored TC genesis and intensification over the western Northwest Pacific but suppressed TC genesis and intensification over the southeastern Northwest Pacific due to increased vertical wind shear and anticyclonic circulation anomalies. Results from atmospheric general circulation model experiments demonstrate that the Pacific La Niña-like cooling dominated the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming in contributing to the observed GWH-related anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Northwest Pacific.

An Estimate of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for the 2011 Hurricane Season

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2011-01-01

Estimates are presented for the expected level of tropical cyclone activity for the 2011 North Atlantic Basin hurricane season. It is anticipated that the frequency of tropical cyclones for the North Atlantic Basin during the 2011 hurricane season will be near to above the post-1995 means. Based on the Poisson distribution of tropical cyclone frequencies for the current more active interval 1995-2010, one computes P(r) = 63.7% for the expected frequency of the number of tropical cyclones during the 2011 hurricane season to be 14 plus or minus 3; P(r) = 62.4% for the expected frequency of the number of hurricanes to be 8 plus or minus 2; P(r) = 79.3% for the expected frequency of the number of major hurricanes to be 3 plus or minus 2; and P(r) = 72.5% for the expected frequency of the number of strikes by a hurricane along the coastline of the United States to be 1 plus or minus 1. Because El Nino is not expected to recur during the 2011 hurricane season, clearly, the possibility exists that these seasonal frequencies could easily be exceeded. Also examined are the effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phase and climatic change (global warming) on tropical cyclone seasonal frequencies, the variation of the seasonal centroid (latitude and longitude) location of tropical cyclone onsets, and the variation of the seasonal peak wind speed and lowest pressure for tropical cyclones.

Hazard Avoidance Products for Convectively-Induced Turbulence in Support of High-Altitude Global Hawk Aircraft Missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffin, Sarah M.; Velden, Christopher S.

2018-01-01

A combination of satellite-based and ground-based information is used to identify regions of intense convection that may act as a hazard to high-altitude aircraft. Motivated by concerns that Global Hawk pilotless aircraft, flying near 60,000 feet, might encounter significant convectively-induced turbulence during research overflights of tropical cyclones, strict rules were put in place to avoid such hazards. However, these rules put constraints on science missions focused on sampling convection with onboard sensors. To address these concerns, three hazard avoidance tools to aid in real-time mission decision support are used to more precisely identify areas of potential turbulence: Satellite-derived Cloud-top height and tropical overshooting tops, and ground-based global network lightning flashes. These tools are used to compare an ER-2 aircraft overflight of tropical cyclone Emily in 2005, which experienced severe turbulence, to Global Hawk overflights of tropical cyclones Karl and Matthew in 2010 that experienced no turbulence. It is found that the ER-2 overflew the lowest cloud tops and had the largest vertical separation from them compared to the Global Hawk flights. Therefore, cold cloud tops alone cannot predict turbulence. Unlike the overflights of Matthew and Karl, Emily exhibited multiple lightning flashes and a distinct overshooting top coincident with the observed turbulence. Therefore, these tools in tandem can better assist in identifying likely regions/periods of intense active convection. The primary outcome of this study is an altering of the Global Hawk overflight rules to be more flexible based on the analyzed conditions.

An Investigation of Bomb Cyclone Climatology: Reanalysis vs. NCEP's CFS Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez, F. M.; Eichler, T.; Gottschalck, J.

2009-12-01

Given the concerns and potential impacts of climate change, the need for climate models to simulate weather phenomena is as important as ever. An example of such phenomena is rapidly intensifying cyclones, also known as "bombs." These intense cyclones have devastating effects on residential and marine commercial interests as well as the transportation industry. In this study, we generate a climatology of rapid cyclogenesis using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) model. Results are compared to NCEP’s global reanalysis data to determine if the CFS model is capable of producing a realistic extreme storm climatology. This represents the first step in quantifying rapidly intensifying cyclones in the CFS model, which will be useful in contributing towards future model improvements, as well as gauging its ability in determining the role of synoptic-scale storms in climate change.

Structures and Evolutions of Explosive Cyclones over the Northwestern and Northeastern Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Shuqin; Fu, Gang

2018-06-01

In this study, the structures and evolutions of moderate (MO) explosive cyclones (ECs) over the Northwestern Pacific (NWP) and Northeastern Pacific (NEP) are investigated and compared using composite analysis with cyclone-relative coordinates. Final Operational Global Analysis data gathered during the cold seasons (October-April) of the 15 years from 2000 to 2015 are used. The results indicate that MO NWP ECs have strong baroclinicity and abundant latent heat release at low levels and strong upper-level forcing, which favors explosive cyclogenesis. The rapid development of MO NEP ECs results from their interaction with a northern cyclone and a large middle-level advection of cyclonic vorticity. The structural differences between MO NWP ECs and MO NEP ECs are significant. This results from their specific large-scale atmospheric and oceanic environments. MO NWP ECs usually develop rapidly in the east and southeast of the Japan Islands; the intrusion of cold dry air from the East Asian continent leads to strong baroclinicity, and the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension provides abundant latent heat release at low levels. The East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream supplies strong upper-level forcing. While MO NEP ECs mainly occur over the NEP, the low-level baroclinicity, upper-level jet stream, and warm ocean currents are relatively weaker. The merged cyclone associated with a strong middle-level trough transports large cyclonic vorticity to MO NEP ECs, which favors their rapid development.

Towards a Statistical Model of Tropical Cyclone Genesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, A.; Kashinath, K.; McAuliffe, J.; Prabhat, M.; Stark, P. B.; Wehner, M. F.

2017-12-01

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are important extreme weather phenomena that have a strong impact on humans. TC forecasts are largely based on global numerical models that produce TC-like features. Aspects of Tropical Cyclones such as their formation/genesis, evolution, intensification and dissipation over land are important and challenging problems in climate science. This study investigates the environmental conditions associated with Tropical Cyclone Genesis (TCG) by testing how accurately a statistical model can predict TCG in the CAM5.1 climate model. TCG events are defined using TECA software @inproceedings{Prabhat2015teca, title={TECA: Petascale Pattern Recognition for Climate Science}, author={Prabhat and Byna, Surendra and Vishwanath, Venkatram and Dart, Eli and Wehner, Michael and Collins, William D}, booktitle={Computer Analysis of Images and Patterns}, pages={426-436}, year={2015}, organization={Springer}} to extract TC trajectories from CAM5.1. L1-regularized logistic regression (L1LR) is applied to the CAM5.1 output. The predictions have nearly perfect accuracy for data not associated with TC tracks and high accuracy differentiating between high vorticity and low vorticity systems. The model's active variables largely correspond to current hypotheses about important factors for TCG, such as wind field patterns and local pressure minima, and suggests new routes for investigation. Furthermore, our model's predictions of TC activity are competitive with the output of an instantaneous version of Emanuel and Nolan's Genesis Potential Index (GPI) @inproceedings{eman04, title = "Tropical cyclone activity and the global climate system", author = "Kerry Emanuel and Nolan, {David S.}", year = "2004", pages = "240-241", booktitle = "26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology"}.

Relating Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error Distributions with Measurements of Forecast Uncertainty

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-01

cyclone THORPEX The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment TIGGE THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble TS tropical storm ...forecast possible, but also relay the level of uncertainty unique to a given storm . This will better inform decision makers to help protect all assets at...for any given storm . Thus, the probabilities may 4 increase or decrease (and the probability swath may widen or narrow) to provide a more

Characteristics of tropical cyclones in high-resolution models in the present climate

DOE PAGES

Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; ...

2014-12-05

The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) fields in two types of experiments, using climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TCmore » frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models.« less

An Extended Forecast of the Frequencies of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2009

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2009-01-01

An extended forecast of the frequencies for the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season is presented. Continued increased activity during the 2009 season with numbers of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes exceeding long-term averages are indicated. Poisson statistics for the combined high-activity intervals (1950-1965 and 1995-2008) give the central 50% intervals to be 9-14, 5-8, and 2-4, respectively, for the number of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, with a 23.4% chance of exceeding 14 tropical cyclones, a 28% chance of exceeding 8 hurricanes, and a 31.9% chance of exceeding 4 major hurricanes. Based strictly on the statistics of the current high-activity interval (1995-2008), the central 50% intervals for the numbers of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12-18, 6-10, and 3-5, respectively, with only a 5% chance of exceeding 23, 13, or 7 storms, respectively. Also examined are the first differences in 10-yr moving averages and the effects of global warming and decadal-length oscillations on the frequencies of occurrence for North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones. In particular, temperature now appears to be the principal driver of increased activity and storm strength during the current high-activity interval, with near-record values possible during the 2009 season.

Compound simulation of fluvial floods and storm surges in a global coupled river-coast flood model: Model development and its application to 2007 Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikeuchi, Hiroaki; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Yamazaki, Dai; Muis, Sanne; Ward, Philip J.; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Verlaan, Martin; Kanae, Shinjiro

2017-08-01

Water-related disasters, such as fluvial floods and cyclonic storm surges, are a major concern in the world's mega-delta regions. Furthermore, the simultaneous occurrence of extreme discharges from rivers and storm surges could exacerbate flood risk, compared to when they occur separately. Hence, it is of great importance to assess the compound risks of fluvial and coastal floods at a large scale, including mega-deltas. However, most studies on compound fluvial and coastal flooding have been limited to relatively small scales, and global-scale or large-scale studies have not yet addressed both of them. The objectives of this study are twofold: to develop a global coupled river-coast flood model; and to conduct a simulation of compound fluvial flooding and storm surges in Asian mega-delta regions. A state-of-the-art global river routing model was modified to represent the influence of dynamic sea surface levels on river discharges and water levels. We conducted the experiments by coupling a river model with a global tide and surge reanalysis data set. Results show that water levels in deltas and estuaries are greatly affected by the interaction between river discharge, ocean tides and storm surges. The effects of storm surges on fluvial flooding are further examined from a regional perspective, focusing on the case of Cyclone Sidr in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta in 2007. Modeled results demonstrate that a >3 m storm surge propagated more than 200 km inland along rivers. We show that the performance of global river routing models can be improved by including sea level dynamics.

Tropical Cyclone Signatures in Atmospheric Convective Available Potential Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Studholme, Joshua; Gulev, Sergey

2016-04-01

Tropical cyclones play an important role in the climate system providing transports of energy and water vapor, forcing the ocean, and also affecting mid-latitude circulation phenomena. Tropical cyclone tracks experience strong interannual variability and in addition, longer term trend-like changes in all ocean basins. Analysis of recent historical data reveal a poleward shift in the locations of tropical cyclone tracks in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres (Kossin et al. 2014, Nature, 509, 349-352). The physical consequences of these alterations are largely unconstrained. For example, the increasing encroachment of tropical cyclone activity into the extra-tropical environment presents a novel and still poorly understood paradigm for tropical-extratropical interactions. In this respect, the role that the atmospheric convective available potential energy (CAPE) plays in the dynamics of tropical cyclones is highly interesting. The two characteristic global-scale spatial patterns in CAPE are identified using EOF analysis. The first pattern shows an abundance of CAPE in the centre of the Pacific and corresponds to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. The second one is capturing positive CAPE anomalies in the oceanic tropics and negative anomalies over equatorial Africa. Associated with these buoyancy patterns, alterations in tropical cyclone activity occur in all basins forming both zonal and meridional patterns. Atmospheric buoyancy is the trigger for deep convection, and subsequently cyclone genesis. This is the mechanism of impact upon location at the start of cyclone tracks. It is found to have less impact upon where cyclones subsequently move, whether or not they undergo extratropical transition and when and where they experience lysis. It is shown that CAPE plays a critical role in the general circulation in the tropics which in turn is the larger steering context for embedded systems within the Walker and Hadley cells. So this lack of `latter life' impact posits an interesting start for further theoretical and physical consideration.

Spaceborne GNSS reflectometry for ocean winds: First results from the UK TechDemoSat-1 mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foti, Giuseppe; Gommenginger, Christine; Jales, Philip; Unwin, Martin; Shaw, Andrew; Robertson, Colette; Roselló, Josep

2015-07-01

First results are presented for ocean surface wind speed retrieval from reflected GPS signals measured by the low Earth orbiting UK TechDemoSat-1 satellite (TDS-1). Launched in July 2014, TDS-1 provides the first new spaceborne Global Navigation Satellite System-Reflectometry (GNSS-R) data since the pioneering UK-Disaster Monitoring Mission (UK-DMC) experiment in 2003. Examples of onboard-processed delay-Doppler maps reveal excellent data quality for winds up to 27.9 m/s. Collocated Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) winds are used to develop and evaluate a wind speed algorithm based on signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and the bistatic radar equation. For SNRs greater than 3 dB, wind speed is retrieved without bias and a precision around 2.2 m/s between 3 and 18 m/s even without calibration. Exploiting lower SNR signals, however, requires good knowledge of the antenna beam, platform attitude, and instrument gain setting. This study demonstrates the capabilities of low-cost, low-mass, and low-power GNSS-R receivers ahead of their launch on the NASA Cyclone GNSS (CYGNSS) constellation in 2016.

First Spaceborne GNSS-Reflectometry Observations of Hurricanes From the UK TechDemoSat-1 Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foti, Giuseppe; Gommenginger, Christine; Srokosz, Meric

2017-12-01

We present the first examples of Global Navigation Satellite Systems-Reflectometry (GNSS-R) observations of hurricanes using spaceborne data from the UK TechDemoSat-1 (TDS-1) mission. We confirm that GNSS-R signals can detect ocean condition changes in very high near-surface ocean wind associated with hurricanes. TDS-1 GNSS-R reflections were collocated with International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) hurricane data, MetOp ASCAT A/B scatterometer winds, and two reanalysis products. Clear variations of GNSS-R reflected power (σ0) are observed as reflections travel through hurricanes, in some cases up to and through the eye wall. The GNSS-R reflected power is tentatively inverted to estimate wind speed using the TDS-1 baseline wind retrieval algorithm developed for low to moderate winds. Despite this, TDS-1 GNSS-R winds through the hurricanes show closer agreement with IBTrACS estimates than winds provided by scatterometers and reanalyses. GNSS-R wind profiles show realistic spatial patterns and sharp gradients that are consistent with expected structures around the eye of tropical cyclones.

Observational-numerical Study of Maritime Extratropical Cyclones Using FGGE Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wash, C. H.; Elsberry, R. L.

1984-01-01

The accomplishments, current research, and future plans of a study investigating the development, maturation, and decay of maritime extratropical cyclones are reported. Three cases of explosive cyclogenesis during the first GARP global experiment (FGGE) DOP-1 were studied diagnostically using storm-following budgets derived from the ECMWF and GLAS level III-b analyses. Mass, vorticity and angular momentum budgets for the moving storm environment were computed for each case. Key results from these studies include: (1) demonstration that the FGGE analyses can be used to explore oceanic circulations; (2) isolation of the role of upper level jet streaks in the initiation of the explosive period in all three cases; and (3) illustration of the lower tropospheric destabilization during each rapid deepening period, which is primarily due to sensible heating of the cold air by the warmer ocean surface. The physics package of the Navy global forecast model was successfully utilized in a semi-prognostic mode to estimate diabatic components of oceanic cyclone systems. Fields of sensible and latent heat fluxes, radiational heating and inferred cloud structures were also computed.

Impact on Hurricane Track and Intensity Forecasts of GPS Dropwindsonde Observations from the First-Season Flights of the NOAA Gulfstream-IV Jet Aircraft.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aberson, Sim D.; Franklin, James L.

1999-03-01

In 1997, the Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) began operational Gulfstream-IV jet aircraft missions to improve the numerical guidance for hurricanes threatening the continental United States, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. During these missions, the new generation of Global Positioning System dropwindsondes were released from the aircraft at 150-200-km intervals along the flight track in the environment of the tropical cyclone to obtain profiles of wind, temperature, and humidity from flight level to the surface. The observations were ingested into the global model at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, which subsequently serves as initial and boundary conditions to other numerical tropical cyclone models. Because of a lack of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin, only five such missions were conducted during the inaugural 1997 hurricane season.Due to logistical constraints, sampling in all quadrants of the storm environment was accomplished in only one of the five cases during 1997. Nonetheless, the dropwindsonde observations improved mean track forecasts from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory hurricane model by as much as 32%, and the intensity forecasts by as much as 20% during the hurricane watch period (within 48 h of projected landfall). Forecasts from another dynamical tropical cyclone model (VICBAR) also showed modest improvements with the dropwindsonde observations. These improvements, if confirmed by a larger sample, represent a large step toward the forecast accuracy goals of TPC. The forecast track improvements are as large as those accumulated over the past 20-25 years, and those for forecast intensity provide further evidence that better synoptic-scale data can lead to more skillful dynamical tropical cyclone intensity forecasts.

Cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change: Global and regional climate model diagnostics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.

2003-04-01

More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure < 990 hPa) we find an increase for western Europe. Strong wind events can be defined via different percentile values of the windspeed (e.g. above the 95 percentile). By this means the relationship between strong wind events and cyclones is also investigated. For several regions (e.g. Germany, France, Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.

Change in ocean subsurface environment to suppress tropical cyclone intensification under global warming.

PubMed

Huang, Ping; Lin, I-I; Chou, Chia; Huang, Rong-Hui

2015-05-18

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are hazardous natural disasters. Because TC intensification is significantly controlled by atmosphere and ocean environments, changes in these environments may cause changes in TC intensity. Changes in surface and subsurface ocean conditions can both influence a TC's intensification. Regarding global warming, minimal exploration of the subsurface ocean has been undertaken. Here we investigate future subsurface ocean environment changes projected by 22 state-of-the-art climate models and suggest a suppressive effect of subsurface oceans on the intensification of future TCs. Under global warming, the subsurface vertical temperature profile can be sharpened in important TC regions, which may contribute to a stronger ocean coupling (cooling) effect during the intensification of future TCs. Regarding a TC, future subsurface ocean environments may be more suppressive than the existing subsurface ocean environments. This suppressive effect is not spatially uniform and may be weak in certain local areas.

Change in ocean subsurface environment to suppress tropical cyclone intensification under global warming

PubMed Central

Huang, Ping; Lin, I. -I; Chou, Chia; Huang, Rong-Hui

2015-01-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are hazardous natural disasters. Because TC intensification is significantly controlled by atmosphere and ocean environments, changes in these environments may cause changes in TC intensity. Changes in surface and subsurface ocean conditions can both influence a TC's intensification. Regarding global warming, minimal exploration of the subsurface ocean has been undertaken. Here we investigate future subsurface ocean environment changes projected by 22 state-of-the-art climate models and suggest a suppressive effect of subsurface oceans on the intensification of future TCs. Under global warming, the subsurface vertical temperature profile can be sharpened in important TC regions, which may contribute to a stronger ocean coupling (cooling) effect during the intensification of future TCs. Regarding a TC, future subsurface ocean environments may be more suppressive than the existing subsurface ocean environments. This suppressive effect is not spatially uniform and may be weak in certain local areas. PMID:25982028

An Observational Study of Tropical-Cyclone Spin-Up in Supertyphoon Jangmi (2008) from 24 - 27 September

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-01

lower troposphere as suggested in modeling studies. The reader is 27 referred to Hildebrand et al. (1995, their Figure 2) and Testud et al. (1995...Walther, C. A., Frush, C., Randall, M., Loew, E., Neitzel, R., 10 Parsons, R., Testud , J., Baudin, F., and LeCornec, A.: The ELDORA/ASTRAIA...136, 1671-1685, 15 2010. 16 Testud , J., Hildebrand, P. H., and Lee, W.-C.: A procedure to correct airborne Doppler radar 17 data for navigation

Quality of cyclone early warning services: a case study in remote off-shore island in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashrafi, Z. M.; Mahmud, S.; Mahbub, A. Q. M.

2015-12-01

Geographic location, the unique natural setting of the country and its tropical monsoon climate modify and regulate the climatic condition, makes Bangladesh more vulnerable to cyclones and storm surges. Previous studies have showed that 80-90 % of global losses and 53 % of total cyclone-related deaths worldwide, occur in Bangladesh and out of which, 42% of cyclone-caused deaths were recorded in the last two centuries. The Cyclone Preparedness Program (CPP) is a unique joint program under the initiative of Government of Bangladesh and Bangladesh Red Crescent Society that provides a robust cyclone early warning (CEW) system for the 13 coastal districts in Bangladesh. CPP ensures rapid dissemination of official Bangladesh Meteorological Department's CEW signals to these communities. However, inconsistent CEW services are reported in several of these coastal communities. This study offered the quality assessment of CPP CEW services in Nijhum Island, a highly populated remotely located off-shore island in Bangladesh. Primary rural appraisal (household survey, focus group discussion and expert interview) were used for field data collection and Likert scale, for data analysis. Study revealed that cyclone early warning signal dissemination were restricted to small area covering only 35 percent of the total population. Moreover, local inhabitants had very poor understanding about disseminated CEW signals (flag signaling system, signal number & severity) although CPP initiated several training program to build and raise awareness. Consequently, people remained inactive during cyclone and reluctant to seek shelter which resulted in lack of proper post-disaster management. Moreover, local people had concern regarding accuracy of CEW signals disseminated by CPP. To ensure last mile connectivity of CEW services, it is highly recommended that local people should be given more training and awareness on CEW signals and how to respond to the same.

Tropical Cyclone - Equatorial Ionosphere Coupling: A Statistical Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhagavathiammal, G. J.

2016-07-01

This paper describes the equatorial ionosphere response to tropical cyclone events which was observed over the Indian Ocean. This statistical study tries to reveal the possible Tropical Cyclone (TC) - Ionosphere coupling. Tropical cyclone track and data can be obtained from the India Meteorological Department, New Delhi. Digisonde/Ionosonde data for the equatorial latitudes can be obtained from Global Ionospheric Radio Observatory. It is believed that TC induced convection as the driving agent for the increased gravity wave activity in the lower atmosphere and these propagating gravity waves deposit their energy and momentum into the upper atmosphere as Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs). The convective regions are identified with the help of Outgoing Long wave radiation (OLR) data from NOAA Climate Data Center/ Precipitation data from TRMM Statellite. The variability of ionospheric parameter like Total Electron Content (TEC), foF2, h'F2 and Drift velocity are examined during TC periods. This study will report the possibility of TC-Ionosphere Coupling in equatorial atmosphere.

76 FR 63714 - Technical Standard Order (TSO)-C129a, Airborne Supplemental Navigation Equipment Using the Global...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-10-13

..., Airborne Supplemental Navigation Equipment Using the Global Positioning System (GPS) AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT ACTION: Notice of cancellation of TSO-C129a, Airborne Supplemental... cancellation of TSO-C129a, Airborne Supplemental Navigation Equipment Using the Global Positioning System (GPS...

Modeling extreme sea levels due to tropical and extra-tropical cyclones at the global-scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muis, S.; Lin, N.; Verlaan, M.; Winsemius, H.; Ward, P.; Aerts, J.

2017-12-01

Extreme sea levels, a combination of storm surges and astronomical tides, can cause catastrophic floods. Due to their intense wind speeds and low pressure, tropical cyclones (TCs) typically cause higher storm surges than extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs), but ETCs may still contribute significantly to the overall flood risk. In this contribution, we show a novel approach to model extreme sea levels due to both tropical and extra-tropical cyclones at the global-scale. Using a global hydrodynamic model we have developed the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset (Muis et al., 2016), which provides daily maximum timeseries of storm tide from 1979 to 2014. GTSR is based on wind and pressure fields from the ERA-Interim climate reanalysis (Dee at al., 2011). A severe limitation of the GTSR dataset is the underrepresentation of TCs. This is due to the relatively coarse grid resolution of ERA-Interim, which means that the strong intensities of TCs are not fully included. Furthermore, the length of ERA-Interim is too short to estimate the probabilities of extreme TCs in a reliable way. We will discuss potential ways to address this limitation, and demonstrate how to improve the global GTSR framework. We will apply the improved framework to the east coast of the United States. First, we improve our meteorological forcing by applying a parametric hurricane model (Holland 1980), and we improve the tide and surge reanalysis dataset (Muis et al., 2016) by explicitly modeling the historical TCs in the Extended Best Track dataset (Demuth et al., 2006). Second, we improve our sampling by statistically extending the observed TC record to many thousands of years (Emanuel et al., 2006). The improved framework allows for the mapping of probabilities of extreme sea levels, including extremes TC events, for the east coast of the United States. ReferencesDee et al (2011). The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137, 553-97. Emanuel et al (2006). A Statistical Deterministic Approach to Hurricane Risk Assessment/ Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 87, 299-314. Holland (1980). An analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes. Mon. Weather Rev. 108, 1212-1218. Muis et al (2016). A global reanalysis of storm surge and extreme sea levels. Nat. Commun. 7, 1-11

Mediterranean Cyclones in a changing climate. First statistical results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tous, M.; Genoves, A.; Campins, J.; Picornell, M. A.; Jansa, A.; Mizuta, R.

2009-09-01

The Mediterranean storms play an important role in weather and climate. Their influence in determining the local weather is known; heavy precipitation systems and strong wind cases are often related to the presence of a cyclone in the Mediterranean. From a large-scale point of view, the Mediterranean storm track has importance in the vertical and horizontal transfers of heat and water vapour towards the Eastern regions. For all of these reasons, any future change related to the intensity, frequency or tracks of these storms can be important for both the local weather and local climate, at least, in the countries around the basin. The Mediterranean cyclones constitute a study subject of increasing interest. Some climatologies from long series of re-analyses, like ERA15, NCEP/NCAR and ERA40, or from operational and high resolution analysis systems, like HIRLAM_INM and ECMWF, have allowed to define the main characteristics of these storms. Generally speaking, the Mediterranean storms have the characteristics of extratropical storms, showing smaller sizes and shorter life cycles than those ones developed in other maritime areas of the world. Moreover, the influence of the land areas and high mountains around the basin and the large-scale heat releases have been revealed as key factors for understanding their genesis and rates of development. In spite of the fact that probably the existing automatic procedures include some large scale assumptions, which may not the best for the correct detection and tracking the Mediterranean storms, these procedures can provide a first and almost necessary step, from a statistical/climatological point of view, specially taking into account both the current resolution of the existent global re-analysis series and global climatic models and the state-of-the art about Mediterranean cyclones. A cyclone detection and tracking procedure, originally designed for the description of Mediterranean storms, has been applied to the low resolution (1.5 degrees lat-lon) outputs of the JMA-GSM climate general circulation model. Preliminary results are here presented. Two different periods have been analysed. The first period, covering 1979-2002 has been compared with the previously computed ERA-40 climatology of cyclones. Results agree reasonably well with those obtained from ERA-40, providing confidence to the current climate simulation of JMA-GSM. Once validated the model from the perspective of cyclonic climatology under current climate conditions, the same procedure is applied to a scenario period (2075-2099) to investigate possible changes in cyclonic activity linked to climate change.

Multi-hazard risk assessment of coastal vulnerability from tropical cyclones - A GIS based approach for the Odisha coast.

PubMed

Sahoo, Bishnupriya; Bhaskaran, Prasad K

2018-01-15

The coastal region bordering the East coast of India is a thickly populated belt exposed to high risk and vulnerability from natural hazards such as tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclone frequencies that develop over the Bay of Bengal (average of 5-6 per year) region are much higher as compared to the Arabian Sea thereby posing a high risk factor associated with storm surge, inland inundation, wind gust, intense rainfall, etc. The Odisha State in the East coast of India experiences the highest number of cyclone strikes as compared to West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu. To express the destructive potential resulting from tropical cyclones the Power Dissipation Index (PDI) is a widely used metric globally. A recent study indicates that PDI for cyclones in the present decade have increased about six times as compared to the past. Hence there is a need to precisely ascertain the coastal vulnerability and risk factors associated with high intense cyclones expected in a changing climate. As such there are no comprehensive studies attempted so far on the determination of Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) for Odisha coast that is highly prone to cyclone strikes. With this motivation, the present study makes an attempt to investigate the physical, environmental, social, and economic impacts on coastal vulnerability associated with tropical cyclones for the Odisha coast. The study also investigates the futuristic projection of coastal vulnerability over this region expected in a changing climate scenario. Eight fair weather parameters along with storm surge height and onshore inundation were used to estimate the Physical Vulnerability Index (PVI). Thereafter, the PVI along with social, economic, and environmental vulnerability was used to determine the overall CVI using the GIS based approach. The authors believe that the comprehensive nature of this study is expected to benefit coastal zone management authorities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tropical cyclone track Analysis over Indian Coast Using Spatio-Temporal data-mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohapatra, Gyanendranath; Manjunath, Swetha; Behera, Sasmita; Mohanty, Pratap Kumar

2015-04-01

Tropical cyclones are a natural hazard which largely affects the lives and property with its destructive wind and heavy rainfall. Fluctuations in the frequency and intensity complicate the detection of long-term trends and play an important role in the global climate system; therefore understanding and predicting tropical cyclones track, intensity, and landfall location is of both societal and scientific significance. In this study a data-mining approach is being used to analyze the tropical cyclone track both in the temporal and spatial scale. Basically, the Indian coast line is divided into four zones viz. north east, south east in the eastern side adjoining Bay of Bengal and North west and south west in the western side adjoining Arabian sea as these coastal areas are very much vulnerable for disaster due to maximum number of landfall of Tropical Cyclones. The track and landfall associated with all the cyclones are clustered based on their intensity (Severe, moderate and low) and landfall location. The analyses are carried out for landfall location and the extent of track separately for the events happening in two seasons i.e. pre-monsoon and post-monsoon period. Along with categorization of intensity, trend analysis of track and the targeted zone of maximum damage also been studied. Algorithms are being developed for potential resilient and impact assessment of the parameters associated with cyclone disaster in the coastal region of India. One of the important objectives of this present work is also the identification of most disaster prone coastal area and becoming a part of the information support system during the cyclone period. Based on the statistics like mean, Standard Deviation, regression and correlation analysis, an index is developed which determines the level of damage and vulnerability along the coastal region. This index can be used for the early warning system of particular coastal areas for the preparedness and mitigation of future cyclone events.

Analysis of ionospheric disturbances associated with powerful cyclones in East Asia and North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wang; Yue, Jianping; Yang, Yang; Li, Zhen; Guo, Jinyun; Pan, Yi; Zhang, Kefei

2017-08-01

East Asia and North America are the regions most heavily affected by powerful cyclones. In this paper we investigate the morphological characteristics of ionospheric disturbances induced by cyclones in different continents. The global ionosphere map supplied by the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE), International Reference Ionosphere Model (IRI) 2012, and Wallops Island ionosonde station data are used to analyse the ionospheric variations during powerful typhoons/hurricanes in East Asia and North America, respectively. After eliminating the ionospheric anomalies due to the solar-terrestrial environment, the total electron content (TEC) time series over the point with maximum wind speed is detected by the sliding interquartile range method. The results indicate that significant ionospheric disturbances are observed during powerful tropical cyclones in East Asia and North America, respectively, and that all the ionospheric anomalies are positive. In addition, the extent and magnitude of travelling ionospheric disturbances are associated with the category of tropical cyclone, and the extent of TEC anomalies in longitude is more pronounced than that in latitude. Furthermore, the maximum ionospheric anomaly does not coincide with the eye of the storm, but appears in the region adjacent to the centre. This implies that ionospheric disturbances at the edges of cyclones are larger than those in the eye of the winds. The phenomenon may be associated with the gravity waves which are generated by strong convective cells that occur in the spiral arms of tropical cyclones. This comprehensive analysis suggests that the presence of powerful typhoons/hurricanes may be a possible source mechanism for ionospheric anomalies.

Diabatic modification of potential vorticity in extratropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chagnon, J.

2012-12-01

Representation of diabatic processes and their impact on extratropical cyclones is a likely source of skill degradation in operational numerical weather prediction systems. This investigation examines the source, structure, and magnitude of diabatic potential vorticity (PV) anomalies generated by small-scale and parameterized processes in both mesoscale and global model simulations of extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic. Simulations of several cold season extratropical storms have been performed using the Met Office Unified Model. Several cases simulated were drawn from the DIAbatic influences on Mesoscale structures in ExTratropical cyclones (DIAMET) observational campaign during which the National Environmental Research Council (NERC) Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurement (FAAM) BAE-146 aircraft was deployed. The influence of specific modelled processes was quantified using a set of tracers, each of which represents a history of the PV contributed by a specific segment of the model (e.g., boundary-layer scheme, cloud microphysics, convection scheme , radiation, etc.). This presentation will highlight several differences and similarities in high and low resolution simulations. For example, in high resolution simulations, tropopause folds are sharpened by a tripolar PV anomaly arising from the convection, boundary-layer, and microphysics schemes; this structure is not present in coarser global model simulations. However, a dipole of PV straddling the tropopause is diagnosed in both coarse- and fine-resolution simulations. The PV dipole, which is strongly influenced by long-wave radiative cooling, increases the gradient of PV near the tropopause and therefore modifies the characteristics Rossby wave propagation and moist baroclinic wave growth.

Collective navigation of complex networks: Participatory greedy routing.

PubMed

Kleineberg, Kaj-Kolja; Helbing, Dirk

2017-06-06

Many networks are used to transfer information or goods, in other words, they are navigated. The larger the network, the more difficult it is to navigate efficiently. Indeed, information routing in the Internet faces serious scalability problems due to its rapid growth, recently accelerated by the rise of the Internet of Things. Large networks like the Internet can be navigated efficiently if nodes, or agents, actively forward information based on hidden maps underlying these systems. However, in reality most agents will deny to forward messages, which has a cost, and navigation is impossible. Can we design appropriate incentives that lead to participation and global navigability? Here, we present an evolutionary game where agents share the value generated by successful delivery of information or goods. We show that global navigability can emerge, but its complete breakdown is possible as well. Furthermore, we show that the system tends to self-organize into local clusters of agents who participate in the navigation. This organizational principle can be exploited to favor the emergence of global navigability in the system.

Simulating the characteristics of tropical cyclones over the South West Indian Ocean using a Stretched-Grid Global Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maoyi, Molulaqhooa L.; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Prusa, Joseph M.; Veitch, Jennifer J.

2018-03-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most devastating natural phenomena. This study examines the capability of a global climate model with grid stretching (CAM-EULAG, hereafter CEU) in simulating the characteristics of TCs over the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO). In the study, CEU is applied with a variable increment global grid that has a fine horizontal grid resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) over the SWIO and coarser resolution (1° × 1°—2° × 2.25°) over the rest of the globe. The simulation is performed for the 11 years (1999-2010) and validated against the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best track data, global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) satellite data, and ERA-Interim (ERAINT) reanalysis. CEU gives a realistic simulation of the SWIO climate and shows some skill in simulating the spatial distribution of TC genesis locations and tracks over the basin. However, there are some discrepancies between the observed and simulated climatic features over the Mozambique channel (MC). Over MC, CEU simulates a substantial cyclonic feature that produces a higher number of TC than observed. The dynamical structure and intensities of the CEU TCs compare well with observation, though the model struggles to produce TCs with a deep pressure centre as low as the observed. The reanalysis has the same problem. The model captures the monthly variation of TC occurrence well but struggles to reproduce the interannual variation. The results of this study have application in improving and adopting CEU for seasonal forecasting over the SWIO.

Changes of tropical cyclone landfalls in South China throughout the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lok, Charlie C. F.; Chan, Johnny C. L.

2017-12-01

The nested regional climate/mesoscale modelling system developed by the authors is applied to the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth System global model outputs to project future changes of landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the South China region. Results show that the modelling system is capable of reproducing the current TC landfall climatology, although it exhibits a noticeable southward bias of TC activity of in the western North Pacific. Future projections show a continuous northward migration of TC activity in the western North Pacific throughout the twenty-first century. Fewer TCs making landfall in South China are projected in the late century, but these landfalling TCs tend to be more intense. Investigations in the large-scale environment suggest that despite warmer sea surface temperature and weaker vertical wind shear, the drier and less cyclonic lower atmosphere all-season is responsible for the reduced TC activity. However, once a TC is formed, the environment it stays in is as wet as today and so it can intensify further than the present-day TCs. Inter-annual variability is also explored, and the influence of the ENSO variation appears to be smaller.

Tropical-Cyclone Formation: Theory and Idealized Modelling

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-11-01

to saturation at the sea-surface temperature and the positive entropy flux from the ocean surface...and Atmospheric Administration; IFEX = Intensity Forecasting Experiment. 15GFS = NOAA Global Forecasting System ; NOGAPS = Navy Operational Global... Atmospheric Prediction System ; UKMET = United Kingdom Meteorological Office. 16 http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2010.html 18 overcomes

CYGNSS Surface Wind Validation and Characteristics in the Maritime Continent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asharaf, S.; Waliser, D. E.; Zhang, C.; Wandala, A.

2017-12-01

Surface wind over tropical oceans plays a crucial role in many local/regional weather and climate processes and helps to shape the global climate system. However, there is a lack of consistent high quality observations for surface winds. The newly launched NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) mission provides near surface wind speed over the tropical ocean with sampling that accounts for the diurnal cycle. In the early phase of the mission, validation is a critical task, and over-ocean validation is typically challenging due to a lack of robust validation resources that a cover a variety of environmental conditions. In addition, it can also be challenging to obtain in-situ observation resources and also to extract co-located CYGNSS records for some of the more scientifically interesting regions, such as the Maritime Continent (MC). The MC is regarded as a key tropical driver for the mean global circulation as well as important large-scale circulation variability such as the Madian-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The focus of this project and analysis is to take advantage of local in-situ resources from the MC regions (e.g. volunteer shipping, marine buoys, and the Year of Maritime Continent (YMC) campaign) to quantitatively characterize and validate the CYGNSS derived winds in the MC region and in turn work to unravel the complex multi-scale interactions between the MJO and MC. This presentation will show preliminary results of a comparison between the CYGNSS and the in-situ surface wind measurements focusing on the MC region. Details about the validation methods, uncertainties, and planned work will be discussed in this presentation.

Multi-satellite Mission in China for Monitoring Natural Hazards (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, H.

2013-12-01

The impacts of natural hazards are continuing to increase around the world, and mitigation of the damages caused by natural hazards like floods, droughts, earthquakes, and cyclones has been a global challenge. Current evidence demonstrates there are many kinds of technologies for natural hazard management, but space technology is recognized as one of the most effective means. After 30 years of development, China has become an important member of the global remote sensing community. China has successfully developed an Earth observation system consisting of meteorological satellites, resources satellites, ocean satellites, environment and disaster monitoring satellites, micro-satellites, navigation satellites, and manned spacecraft. In this presentation, a short overview of China's Earth observation satellite missions will be presented. Specifically, the Small Satellite Constellation for Environment and Disaster Monitoring and Forecasting (SSCEDMF) will be introduced and discussed. SSCEDMF is a follow-up '4+4' satellite constellation including four optical satellites and four radar satellites, meant to improve disaster management capability in China. At the current stage, two optical satellites and an s-band synthetic aperture radar satellite have successfully launched. Disasters are a global issue that no country can address individually, requiring sharing and collaboration. China has benefited greatly from international collaboration in disaster mitigation, and has actively worked with international partners. To share our experience in dealing with the risk of disasters, some achievements and progress in space technology applications for disaster management will be introduced. In addition, collaborative activities with IRDR, the UN-SPIDER Beijing Office, and the CAS-TWAS Centre of Excellence on Space Technology for Disaster Mitigation (STDM) will be described.

Statistical Aspects of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2013. Part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2014-01-01

This Technical Publication (TP) is part 2 of a two-part study of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones that occurred during the weather satellite era, 1960-2013. In particular, this TP examines the inferred statistical relationships between 25 tropical cyclone parameters and 9 specific climate-related factors, including the (1) Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), (2) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), (3) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index, (4) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) index, (5) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), (6) NAO index of the Climate Research Unit (CRU), (7) Armagh surface air temperature (ASAT), (8) Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GLOTI), and (9) Mauna Loa carbon dioxide (CO2) (MLCO2) index. Part 1 of this two-part study examined the statistical aspects of the 25 tropical cyclone parameters (e.g., frequencies, peak wind speed (PWS), accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), etc.) and provided the results of statistical testing (i.e., runs-testing, the t-statistic for independent samples, and Poisson distributions). Also, the study gave predictions for the frequencies of the number of tropical cyclones (NTC), number of hurricanes (NH), number of major hurricanes (NMH), and number of United States land-falling hurricanes (NUSLFH) expected for the 2014 season, based on the statistics of the overall interval 1960-2013, the subinterval 1995-2013, and whether the year 2014 would be either an El Niño year (ENY) or a non-El Niño year (NENY).

The response of land-falling tropical cyclone characteristics to projected climate change in northeast Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, Chelsea L.; Bruyère, Cindy L.; Mooney, Priscilla A.; Lynch, Amanda H.

2018-01-01

Land-falling tropical cyclones along the Queensland coastline can result in serious and widespread damage. However, the effects of climate change on cyclone characteristics such as intensity, trajectory, rainfall, and especially translation speed and size are not well-understood. This study explores the relative change in the characteristics of three case studies by comparing the simulated tropical cyclones under current climate conditions with simulations of the same systems under future climate conditions. Simulations are performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and environmental conditions for the future climate are obtained from the Community Earth System Model using a pseudo global warming technique. Results demonstrate a consistent response of increasing intensity through reduced central pressure (by up to 11 hPa), increased wind speeds (by 5-10% on average), and increased rainfall (by up to 27% for average hourly rainfall rates). The responses of other characteristics were variable and governed by either the location and trajectory of the current climate cyclone or the change in the steering flow. The cyclone that traveled furthest poleward encountered a larger climate perturbation, resulting in a larger proportional increase in size, rainfall rate, and wind speeds. The projected monthly average change in the 500 mb winds with climate change governed the alteration in the both the trajectory and translation speed for each case. The simulated changes have serious implications for damage to coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems through increased wind speeds, storm surge, rainfall, and potentially increased size of some systems.

A 320-year AMM+SOI Index Reconstruction from Historical Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chenoweth, M.; Divine, D.

2010-12-01

Trends in the frequency of North Atlantic tropical cyclones, including major hurricanes, are dominated by those originating in the deep tropics. In addition, these tropical cyclones are stronger when making landfall and their total power dissipation is higher than storms forming elsewhere in the Atlantic basin. Both the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the leading modes of coupled air-sea interaction in the Atlantic and Pacific, respectively, and have well-established relationships with Atlantic hurricane variability. Here we use a 320-year record of tropical cyclone activity in the Lesser Antilles region of the North Atlantic from historical manuscript and newspaper records to reconstruct a normalized seasonal (July-October) index combining the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and AMM employing both the modern analog technique and back-propagation artificial neural networks. Our results indicate that the AMM+SOI index since 1690 shows no long-term trend but is dominated by both short-term (<10 years) and long-term (quasi-decadal to bi-decadal) variations. The decadal-scale variation is consistent with both instrumental and proxy records elsewhere from the global tropics. Distinct periods of high and low index values, corresponding to high and low tropical cyclone frequency, are regularly-appearing features in the record and provides further evidence that natural decadal -scale variability in Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency must be accounted for when determining trends in records and attribution of climate change.

Spatio-temporal assessment of ecological disturbance and its intensity in the Mangrove forest using MODIS derived disturbance index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutta, D.; Das, P. K.; Paul, S.; Sharma, J. R.; Dadhwal, V. K.

2014-11-01

The mangrove ecosystem of Sundarbans region plays an important ecological and socio-economical role in both India and Bangladesh. The ecological disturbance in the coastal mangrove forests are mainly attributed to the periodic cyclones caused by deep depression formed over the Bay of Bengal. In the present study, three of the major cyclones in the Sundarbans region were analyzed to establish the cause-and-effect relationship between cyclones and the resultant ecological disturbance. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) time-series data was used to generate MODIS global disturbance index (MGDI) and its potential was explored to assess the instantaneous ecological disturbance caused by cyclones with varying landfall intensities and at different stages of mangrove phenology. The time-series MGDI was converted into the percentage change in MGDI using its multi-year mean for each pixel, and its response towards several cyclonic events was studied. The affected areas were identified by analyzing the Landsat-8 satellite data before and after the cyclone and the MGDI values of the affected areas were utilized to develop the threshold for delineation of the disturbed pixels. The selected threshold was applied on the time-series MGDI images to delineate the disturbed areas for each year individually to identify the frequently disturbed areas. The classified intensity map could able to detect the chronically affected areas, which can serve as a valuable input towards modelling the biomigration of the invasive species and efficient forest management.

The Poleward Shift of Storm Tracks Under Climate Change: Tracking Cyclones in CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaspi, Y.; Tamarin, T.

2017-12-01

Extratropical cyclones dominate the distribution of precipitation and wind in the midlatitudes, and therefore their frequency, intensity, and paths have a significant effect on weather and climate. Comprehensive climate models forced by enhanced greenhouse gas emissions suggest that under a climate change scenario, the latitudinal band of storm tracks would shift poleward. While the poleward shift is a robust response across most models, there is currently no consensus on what is the dominant dynamical mechanism. Here we use a Lagrangian approach to study the poleward shift, by employing a storm-tracking algorithm on an ensemble of CMIP5 models forced by increased CO2 emissions. We demonstrate that in addition to a poleward shift in the latitude of storm genesis, associated with the expansion of the Hadley cell, the averaged cyclonic storm also propagates more poleward until it reaches its maximum intensity. A mechanism for enhanced poleward motion of cyclones in a warmer climate is proposed, supported by idealized global warming experiments, and relates the shift to changes in upper level jet and atmospheric water vapour content. Our results imply that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the averaged latitude of peak cyclone intensity shifts poleward by about 1.2○ (1.0○) in the Atlantic (Pacific) storm track in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and by about 1.6○ in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) storm track. These changes in cyclone tracks can have a significant impact on midlatitude climate.

Targeted observations to improve tropical cyclone track forecasts in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aberson, Sim David

In 1997, the National Hurricane Center and the Hurricane Research Division began conducting operational synoptic surveillance missions with the Gulfstream IV-SP jet aircraft to improve operational forecast models. During the first two years, twenty-four missions were conducted around tropical cyclones threatening the continental United States, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Global Positioning System dropwindsondes were released from the aircraft at 150--200 km intervals along the flight track in the tropical cyclone environment to obtain wind, temperature, and humidity profiles from flight level (around 150 hPa) to the surface. The observations were processed and formatted aboard the aircraft and transmitted to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). There, they were ingested into the Global Data Assimilation System that subsequently provides initial and time-dependent boundary conditions for numerical models that forecast tropical cyclone track and intensity. Three dynamical models were employed in testing the targeting and sampling strategies. With the assimilation into the numerical guidance of all the observations gathered during the surveillance missions, only the 12-h Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Hurricane Model forecast showed statistically significant improvement. Neither the forecasts from the Aviation run of the Global Spectral Model nor the shallow-water VICBAR model were improved with the assimilation of the dropwindsonde data. This mediocre result is found to be due mainly to the difficulty in operationally quantifying the storm-motion vector used to create accurate synthetic data to represent the tropical cyclone vortex in the models. A secondary limit on forecast improvements from the surveillance missions is the limited amount of data provided by the one surveillance aircraft in regular missions. The inability of some surveillance missions to surround the tropical cyclone with dropwindsonde observations is a possible third limit, though the results are inconclusive. Due to limited aircraft resources, optimal observing strategies for these missions must be developed. Since observations in areas of decaying error modes are unlikely to have large impact on subsequent forecasts, such strategies should be based on taking observations in those geographic locations corresponding to the most rapidly growing error modes in the numerical models and on known deficiencies in current data assimilation systems. Here, the most rapidly growing modes are represented by areas of large forecast spread in the NCEP bred-mode global ensemble forecasting system. The sampling strategy requires sampling the entire target region at approximately the same resolution as the North American rawinsonde network to limit the possibly spurious spread of information from dropwindsonde observations into data-sparse regions where errors are likely to grow. When only the subset of data in these fully-sampled target regions is assimilated into the numerical models, statistically significant reduction of the track forecast errors of up to 25% within the critical first two days of the forecast are seen. These model improvements are comparable with the cumulative business-as-usual track forecast model improvements expected over eighteen years.

Influence of global warming on western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensities during 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Nam-Young; Yang, Se-Hwan; Elsner, James

2017-04-01

The climate of 2015 was characterized by a strong El Niño, global warmth, and record-setting tropical cyclone (TC) intensity for western North Pacific typhoons. In this study, the highest TC intensity in 32 years (1984-2015) is shown to be a consequence of above normal TC activity—following natural internal variation—and greater efficiency of intensity. The efficiency of intensity (EINT) is termed the 'blasting' effect and refers to typhoon intensification at the expense of occurrence. Statistical models show that the EINT is mostly due to the anomalous warmth in the environment as indicated by global mean sea-surface temperature. In comparison, the EINT due to El Niño is negligible. This implies that the record-setting intensity of 2015 might not have occurred without environmental warming and suggests that a year with even greater TC intensity is possible in the near future when above normal activity coincides with another record EINT due to continuous warming.

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission contributions to hydrology and societal applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirschbaum, D.; Huffman, G. J.; Skofronick Jackson, G.

2016-12-01

Too much or too little rain can serve as a tipping point for triggering catastrophic flooding and landslides or widespread drought. Knowing when, where and how much rain is falling globally is vital to understanding how vulnerable areas may be more or less impacted by these disasters. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission provides near real-time precipitation data worldwide that is used by a broad range of end users, from tropical cyclone forecasters to agricultural modelers to researchers evaluating the spread of diseases. The GPM constellation provides merged, multi-satellite data products at three latencies that are critical for research and societal applications around the world. This presentation will outline current capabilities in using accurate and timely information of precipitation to directly benefit society, including examples of end user applications within the tropical cyclone forecasting, disasters response, agricultural forecasting, and disease tracking communities, among others. The presentation will also introduce some of the new visualization and access tools developed by the GPM team.

Growth form-dependent response to physical disturbance and thermal stress in Acropora corals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muko, S.; Arakaki, S.; Nagao, M.; Sakai, Kazuhiko

2013-03-01

To predict the community structure in response to changing environmental conditions, it is necessary to know the species-specific reaction and relative impact strength of each disturbance. We investigated the coral communities in two sites, an exposed and a protected site, at Iriomote Island, Japan, from 2005 to 2008. During the study period, a cyclone and thermal stress were observed. All Acropora colonies, classified into four morphologies (arborescent, tabular, corymbose, and digitate), were identified and tracked through time to calculate the annual mortality and growth rate. The mortality of all Acropora colonies in the protected site was lower than that in the exposed site during the period without disturbances. Extremely higher mortality due to bleaching was observed in tabular and corymbose Acropora, compared to other growth forms, at the protected sites after thermal stress. In contrast, physical disturbance by a tropical cyclone induced the highest mortality in arborescent and digitate corals at the exposed site. Moreover, arborescent corals exhibited a remarkable decline 1 year after the tropical cyclone at the exposed site. The growth of colonies that survived coral bleaching did not decrease in the following year compared to previous year for all growth forms, but the growth of arborescent and tabular remnant corals at the exposed site declined severely after the tropical cyclone compared to previous year. The delayed mortality and lowered growth rate after the tropical cyclone were probably due to the damage caused by the tropical cyclone. These results indicate that the cyclone had a greater impact on fragile corals than expected. This study provides useful information for the evaluation of Acropora coral response to progressing global warming conditions, which are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity in the near future.

Intensity of prehistoric tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nott, Jonathan F.

2003-04-01

Prediction of future tropical cyclone climate scenarios requires identification of quasi-periodicities at a variety of temporal scales. Extension of records to identify trends at century and millennial scales is important, but to date the emerging field of paleotempestology has been hindered by the lack of a suitable methodology to discern the intensity of prehistoric storms. Here a technique to quantify the central pressure of prehistoric tropical cyclones is presented in detail and demonstrated for the tropical southwest Pacific region. The importance of extending records to century time scales is highlighted for northeast Australia, where a virtual absence of category 5 cyclones during the 20th century stands in contrast to an active period of severe cyclogenesis during the previous century. Several land crossing storms during the 19th century achieved central pressures lower than that ever recorded historically and close to the theoretical thermodynamic limit of storms for the region. This technique can be applied to all tropical and subtropical regions globally and will assist in obtaining more realistic predictions for future storm scenarios with implications for insurance premiums, urban and infrastructural design, and emergency planning.

Water security and societal impacts of tropical cyclones in northwestern Mexico, 1970-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, C. A.; Farfan, L.

2012-12-01

Hydroclimatic variability is one of several potential threats to water security, defined as sustainable quantities and qualities of water for resilient societies and ecosystems in the face of uncertain global environmental change. Other threats can stem from human dimensions of global change, e.g., long-distance trade of water-intensive agricultural commodities or pollution resulting from industrial production and mining in response to rising global market demand. Drought and water scarcity are considered the principal, chronic, hydroclimatic drivers of water insecurity in arid and semi-arid regions. In these conditions, however, rainfall is both the water-supply lifeline and, in extreme events, the cause of flood hazard. In this study, we consider the monsoon-dominated Pacific coast of Mexico and assess the human impacts from tropical cyclone landfall over the past four decades (1970-2010). Storm data from the U.S. National Hurricane Center, rainfall reports from Mexico's National Meteorological Service, and indicators from an international disaster database at Belgium's Université Catholique de Louvain are used to assess the impacts of more than 30 landfall events. For the ten events with the greatest population impact, between 20,000 to 800,000 people were affected by each landfalling cyclone. Strong winds and heavy rainfall, particularly when sustained over periods of 1-3 days, result in significant property damage and loss of life. Results indicate that, in densely populated areas, excessive rainfall accumulations and high daily rates are important causes of cyclone disasters. Strengthening water security associated with extreme events requires planning via structured exchanges between scientists and decision-makers. Adaptive management that accounts for uncertainties, initiates responses, and iteratively assesses outcomes is the thrust of an emerging water-security initiative for the arid Americas that seeks to strengthen water security in northwestern Mexico.Norbert Impacts in Alamos, Sonora, 12 Oct. 2008

A level 2 wind speed retrieval algorithm for the CYGNSS mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarizia, Maria Paola; Ruf, Christopher; O'Brien, Andrew; Gleason, Scott

2014-05-01

The NASA EV-2 Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) is a spaceborne mission focused on tropical cyclone (TC) inner core process studies. CYGNSS consists of a constellation of 8 microsatellites, which will measure ocean surface wind speed in all precipitating conditions, including those experienced in the TC eyewall, and with sufficient frequency to resolve genesis and rapid intensification. It does so through the use of an innovative remote sensing technique, known as Global Navigation Satellite System-Reflectometry, or GNSS-R. GNSS-R uses signals of opportunity from navigation constellations (e.g. GPS, GLONASS, Galileo), scattered by the surface of the ocean, to retrieve the surface wind speed. The dense space-time sampling capabilities, the ability of L-band signals to penetrate well through rain, and the possibility of simple, low-cost/low-power GNSS receivers, make GNSS-R ideal for the CYGNSS goals. Here we present an overview of a Level 2 (L2) wind speed retrieval algorithm, which would be particularly suitable for CYGNSS, and could be used to estimate winds from GNSS-R in general. The approach makes use of two different observables computed from 1-second Level 2a (L2a) delay-Doppler Maps (DDMs) of radar cross section. The first observable is called Delay-Doppler Map Average (DDMA), and it's the averaged radar cross section over a delay-Doppler window around the DDM peak (i.e. the specular reflection point coordinate in delay and Doppler). The second is called the Leading Edge Slope (LES), and it's the leading edge of the Integrated Delay Waveform (IDW), obtained by integrating the DDM along the Doppler dimension. The observables are calculated over a limited range of delays and Doppler frequencies, to comply with baseline spatial resolution requirements for the retrieved winds, which in the case of CYGNSS is 25 km x 25 km. If the observable from the 1-second DDM corresponds to a resolution higher than the specified one, time-averaging between consecutive observables is also applied, to reduce further the noise in the observables. The observables are correlated with wind speed, allowing one to develop an empirical Geophysical Model Function (GMF) that relates the observable value to the ground truth matchup winds, using a training dataset. The empirical GMF can then be used to estimate the winds from a generic dataset of observables, independent from the training one. In addition to that, the degree of decorrelation existing between winds retrieved from DDMA and from LES leads to the development of a Minimum Variance (MV) estimator, which provides improved wind estimates compared to those from DDMA or LES alone. The retrieval algorithm is applied in this study to GNSS-R synthetic data simulated using an End-to-End Simulator (E2ES) developed for CYGNSS, and using the true wind speeds that constitute the input to the simulations, as the ground-truth matchups. The performances of the retrieval algorithm will be presented in the form of Root Mean Square (RMS) error between the true and retrieved winds, highlighting that, for those specular points acquired with high enough gain of the receiver antenna, the RMS error meets the CYGNSS requirements on the wind speed uncertainty, which must be the greatest between 2 m/s or 10% of the measured wind.

Resolution Dependence of Future Tropical Cyclone Projections of CAM5.1 in the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group Idealized Configurations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wehner, Michael; ., Prabhat; Reed, Kevin A.

The four idealized configurations of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group are integrated using the global Community Atmospheric Model version 5.1 at two different horizontal resolutions, approximately 100 and 25 km. The publicly released 0.9° × 1.3° configuration is a poor predictor of the sign of the 0.23° × 0.31° model configuration’s change in the total number of tropical storms in a warmer climate. However, it does predict the sign of the higher-resolution configuration’s change in the number of intense tropical cyclones in a warmer climate. In the 0.23° × 0.31° model configuration, both increased CO 2 concentrations and elevatedmore » sea surface temperature (SST) independently lower the number of weak tropical storms and shorten their average duration. Conversely, increased SST causes more intense tropical cyclones and lengthens their average duration, resulting in a greater number of intense tropical cyclone days globally. Increased SST also increased maximum tropical storm instantaneous precipitation rates across all storm intensities. It was found that while a measure of maximum potential intensity based on climatological mean quantities adequately predicts the 0.23° × 0.31° model’s forced response in its most intense simulated tropical cyclones, a related measure of cyclogenesis potential fails to predict the model’s actual cyclogenesis response to warmer SSTs. These analyses lead to two broader conclusions: 1) Projections of future tropical storm activity obtained by a direct tracking of tropical storms simulated by coarse-resolution climate models must be interpreted with caution. 2) Projections of future tropical cyclogenesis obtained from metrics of model behavior that are based solely on changes in long-term climatological fields and tuned to historical records must also be interpreted with caution.« less

Resolution Dependence of Future Tropical Cyclone Projections of CAM5.1 in the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group Idealized Configurations

DOE PAGES

Wehner, Michael; ., Prabhat; Reed, Kevin A.; ...

2015-05-12

The four idealized configurations of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group are integrated using the global Community Atmospheric Model version 5.1 at two different horizontal resolutions, approximately 100 and 25 km. The publicly released 0.9° × 1.3° configuration is a poor predictor of the sign of the 0.23° × 0.31° model configuration’s change in the total number of tropical storms in a warmer climate. However, it does predict the sign of the higher-resolution configuration’s change in the number of intense tropical cyclones in a warmer climate. In the 0.23° × 0.31° model configuration, both increased CO 2 concentrations and elevatedmore » sea surface temperature (SST) independently lower the number of weak tropical storms and shorten their average duration. Conversely, increased SST causes more intense tropical cyclones and lengthens their average duration, resulting in a greater number of intense tropical cyclone days globally. Increased SST also increased maximum tropical storm instantaneous precipitation rates across all storm intensities. It was found that while a measure of maximum potential intensity based on climatological mean quantities adequately predicts the 0.23° × 0.31° model’s forced response in its most intense simulated tropical cyclones, a related measure of cyclogenesis potential fails to predict the model’s actual cyclogenesis response to warmer SSTs. These analyses lead to two broader conclusions: 1) Projections of future tropical storm activity obtained by a direct tracking of tropical storms simulated by coarse-resolution climate models must be interpreted with caution. 2) Projections of future tropical cyclogenesis obtained from metrics of model behavior that are based solely on changes in long-term climatological fields and tuned to historical records must also be interpreted with caution.« less

Predicting Tropical Cyclogenesis with a Global Mesoscale Model: Preliminary Results with Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis (2008)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, B.; Tao, W.; Atlas, R.

2008-12-01

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis, the deadliest named tropical cyclone (TC) in the North Indian Ocean Basin, devastated Burma (Myanmar) in May 2008, causing tremendous damage and numerous fatalities. An increased lead time in the prediction of TC Nargis would have increased the warning time and may therefore have saved lives and reduced economic damage. Recent advances in high-resolution global models and supercomputers have shown the potential for improving TC track and intensity forecasts, presumably by improving multi-scale simulations. The key but challenging questions to be answered include: (1) if and how realistic, in terms of timing, location and TC general structure, the global mesoscale model (GMM) can simulate TC genesis and (2) under what conditions can the model extend the lead time of TC genesis forecasts. In this study, we focus on genesis prediction for TCs in the Indian Ocean with the GMM. Preliminary real-data simulations show that the initial formation and intensity variations of TC Nargis can be realistically predicted at a lead time of up to 5 days. These simulations also suggest that the accurate representations of a westerly wind burst (WWB) and an equatorial trough, associated with monsoon circulations and/or a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), are important for predicting the formation of this kind of TC. In addition to the WWB and equatorial trough, other favorable environmental conditions will be examined, which include enhanced monsoonal circulation, upper-level outflow, low- and middle-level moistening, and surface fluxes.

Storm-centric view of Tropical Cyclone oceanic wakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gentemann, C. L.; Scott, J. P.; Smith, D.

2012-12-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) have a dramatic impact on the upper ocean. Storm-generated oceanic mixing, high amplitude near-inertial currents, upwelling, and heat fluxes often warm or cool the surface ocean temperatures over large regions near tropical cyclones. These SST anomalies occur to the right (Northern Hemisphere) or left (Southern Hemisphere) of the storm track, varying along and across the storm track. These wide swaths of temperature change have been previously documented by in situ field programs as well as IR and visible satellite data. The amplitude, temporal and spatial variability of these surface temperature anomalies depend primarily upon the storm size, storm intensity, translational velocity, and the underlying ocean conditions. Tropical cyclone 'cold wakes' are usually 2 - 5 °C cooler than pre-storm SSTs, and persist for days to weeks. Since storms that occur in rapid succession typically follow similar paths, the cold wake from one storm can affect development of subsequent storms. Recent studies, on both warm and cold wakes, have mostly focused on small subsets of global storms because of the amount of work it takes to co-locate different data sources to a storm's location. While a number of hurricane/typhoon websites exist that co-locate various datasets to TC locations, none provide 3-dimensional temporal and spatial structure of the ocean-atmosphere necessary to study cold/warm wake development and impact. We are developing a global 3-dimensional storm centric database for TC research. The database we propose will include in situ data, satellite data, and model analyses. Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) has a widely-used storm watch archive which provides the user an interface for visually analyzing collocated NASA Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) winds with GHRSST microwave SSTs and SSM/I, TMI or AMSR-E rain rates for all global tropical cyclones 1999-2009. We will build on this concept of bringing together different data near storm locations when developing the storm-centric database. This database will be made available to researchers via the web display tools previously developed for RSS web pages. The database will provide scientists with a single data format collection of various atmospheric and oceanographic data, and will include all tropical storms since 1998, when the passive MW SSTs from the TMI instrument first became available. Initial results showing an analysis of Typhoon Man-Yi will be presented.

Extratropical Cyclones over Southwestern Atlantic Ocean: Present and Future Climates projected by RegCM4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reboita, Michelle; Rodrigues, Marcelo; da Rocha, Rosmeri

2017-04-01

This study shows some of the climatological features of the extratropical cyclones in present and future climate over Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (SAO). The projections were carried out with Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) nested in HadGEM2-ES global model outputs and using representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) from the CMIP5. The simulations considered the South America domain suggested by CORDEX, horizontal grid spacing of 50 km, 18 sigma-pressure levels in the vertical. An objective tracking scheme based on cyclonic relative vorticity calculated using the wind at 925 hPa was used to identify the cyclones. All cyclones with relative vorticity lower than the -1.5 x 10-5 s-1 and with lifetime higher or equal 24 hours were included in the climatology. Considering the period from 1979 to 2098, RegCM4 and HadGEM2-ES project a negative trend in the frequency of the extratropical cyclones over SAO, with the biggest negative trend occuring in the latitudinal band between 40°S and 57.5°S. This result can be associated with the southward displacement of the baroclinic zone which contributes to the cyclones move to south leaving the region analyzed. The three subregions with largest cyclogenetic activity discussed in the literature (southeast coast of Brazil - RG1, coast of Uruguay and southern Brazil - RG2; east coast of Argentina - RG3) were better reproduced in RegCM4 than in HadGEM2-ES. Therefore, RegCM4 downscaling ads value in the HadGEM2-ES projections. The frequency of cyclones in present (1979-2005) and future climate (2070-2098) is higher in winter and lower in summer. Regarding the mean characteristics of the cyclones (life time, travel distance, velocity, initial relative vorticity and total average vorticity), both models successfully reproduced those obtained in the reanalysis (NCEP1, NCEP2, CFSR, ERA40 and ERA-Interim) and there are no significant differences in the future climate compared with the present.

NASA CYGNSS Tropical Cyclone Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruf, Chris; Atlas, Robert; Majumdar, Sharan; Ettammal, Suhas; Waliser, Duane

2017-04-01

The NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) mission consists of a constellation of eight microsatellites that were launched into low-Earth orbit on 15 December 2016. Each observatory carries a four-channel bistatic scatterometer receiver to measure near surface wind speed over the ocean. The transmitter half of the scatterometer is the constellation of GPS satellites. CYGNSS is designed to address the inadequacy in observations of the inner core of tropical cyclones (TCs) that result from two causes: 1) much of the TC inner core is obscured from conventional remote sensing instruments by intense precipitation in the eye wall and inner rain bands; and 2) the rapidly evolving (genesis and intensification) stages of the TC life cycle are poorly sampled in time by conventional polar-orbiting, wide-swath surface wind imagers. The retrieval of wind speed by CYGNSS in the presence of heavy precipitation is possible due to the long operating wavelength used by GPS (19 cm), at which scattering and attenuation by rain are negligible. Improved temporal sampling by CYGNSS is possible due to the use of eight spacecraft with 4 scatterometer channels on each one. Median and mean revisit times everywhere in the tropics are 3 and 7 hours, respectively. Wind speed referenced to 10m height above the ocean surface is retrieved from CYGNSS measurements of bistatic radar cross section in a manner roughly analogous to that of conventional ocean wind scatterometers. The technique has been demonstrated previously from space by the UK-DMC and UK-TDS missions. Wind speed is retrieved with 25 km spatial resolution and an uncertainty of 2 m/s at low wind speeds and 10% at wind speeds above 20 m/s. Extensive simulation studies conducted prior to launch indicate that there will be a significant positive impact on TC forecast skill for both track and intensity with CYGNSS measurements assimilated into HWRF numerical forecasts. Simulations of CYGNSS spatial and temporal sampling properties for observing the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves (CCEW) indicate that it will allow for improved characterization of MJO temporal variability and of the major CCEW modes. The EGU 2017 presentation will include an overview of the CYGNSS mission, a report on current mission status, and summaries of the simulation studies performed regarding TC forecasts and MJO and CCEW characterization.

Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2014

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2016-01-01

This Technical Publication (TP) represents an extension of previous work concerning the tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin during the weather satellite era, 1960-2014, in particular, that of an article published in The Journal of the Alabama Academy of Science. With the launch of the TIROS-1 polar-orbiting satellite in April 1960, a new era of global weather observation and monitoring began. Prior to this, the conditions of the North Atlantic basin were determined only from ship reports, island reports, and long-range aircraft reconnaissance. Consequently, storms that formed far from land, away from shipping lanes, and beyond the reach of aircraft possibly could be missed altogether, thereby leading to an underestimate of the true number of tropical cyclones forming in the basin. Additionally, new analysis techniques have come into use which sometimes has led to the inclusion of one or more storms at the end of a nominal hurricane season that otherwise would not have been included. In this TP, examined are the yearly (or seasonal) and 10-year moving average (10-year moving average) values of the (1) first storm day (FSD), last storm day (LSD), and length of season (LOS); (2) frequencies of tropical cyclones (by class); (3) average peak 1-minute sustained wind speed () and average lowest pressure (); (4) average genesis location in terms of north latitudinal () and west longitudinal () positions; (5) sum and average power dissipation index (); (6) sum and average accumulated cyclone energy (); (7) sum and average number of storm days (); (8) sum of the number of hurricane days (NHD) and number of major hurricane days (NMHD); (9) net tropical cyclone activity index (NTCA); (10) largest individual storm (LIS) PWS, LP, PDI, ACE, NSD, NHD, NMHD; and (11) number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes (N4/5). Also examined are the December-May (D-M) and June-November (J-N) averages and 10-year moving average values of several climatic factors, including the (1) oceanic Nino index (); (2) Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation () index; (3) Atlantic meridional mode () index; (4) global land-ocean temperature index (); and (5) quasi-biennial oscillation () index. Lastly, the associational aspects (using both linear and nonparametric statistical tests) between selected tropical cyclone parameters and the climatic factors are examined based on their 10-year moving average trend values.

Fluoroscopy and imageless navigation enable an equivalent reconstruction of leg length and global and femoral offset in THA.

PubMed

Weber, Markus; Woerner, Michael; Springorum, Robert; Sendtner, Ernst; Hapfelmeier, Alexander; Grifka, Joachim; Renkawitz, Tobias

2014-10-01

Restoration of biomechanics is a major goal in THA. Imageless navigation enables intraoperative control of leg length equalization and offset reconstruction. However, the effect of navigation compared with intraoperative fluoroscopy is unclear. We asked whether intraoperative use of imageless navigation (1) improves the relative accuracy of leg length and global and femoral offset restoration; (2) increases the absolute precision of leg length and global and femoral offset equalization; and (3) reduces outliers in a reconstruction zone of ± 5 mm for leg length and global and femoral offset restoration compared with intraoperative fluoroscopy during minimally invasive (MIS) THA with the patient in a lateral decubitus position. In this prospective study a consecutive series of 125 patients were randomized to either navigation-guided or fluoroscopy-controlled THA using sealed, opaque envelopes. All patients received the same cementless prosthetic components through an anterolateral MIS approach while they were in a lateral decubitus position. Leg length, global or total offset (representing the combination of femoral and acetabular offset), and femoral offset differences were restored using either navigation or fluoroscopy. Postoperatively, residual leg length and global and femoral offset discrepancies were analyzed on magnification-corrected radiographs of the pelvis by an independent and blinded examiner using digital planning software. Accuracy was defined as the relative postoperative difference between the surgically treated and the unaffected contralateral side for leg length and offset, respectively; precision was defined as the absolute postoperative deviation of leg length and global and femoral offset regardless of lengthening or shortening of leg length and offset throughout the THA. All analyses were performed per intention-to-treat. Analyzing the relative accuracy of leg length restoration we found a mean difference of 0.2 mm (95% CI, -1.0 to +1.4 mm; p = 0.729) between fluoroscopy and navigation, 0.2 mm (95 % CI, -0.9 to +1.3 mm; p = 0.740) for global offset and 1.7 mm (95 % CI, +0.4 to +2.9 mm; p = 0.008) for femoral offset. For the absolute precision of leg length and global and femoral offset equalization, there was a mean difference of 1.7 ± 0.3 mm (p < 0.001) between fluoroscopy and navigation. The biomechanical reconstruction with a residual leg length and global and femoral offset discrepancy less than 5 mm and less than 8 mm, respectively, succeeded in 93% and 98%, respectively, in the navigation group and in 54% and 95%, respectively, in the fluoroscopy group. Intraoperative fluoroscopy and imageless navigation seem equivalent in accuracy and precision to reconstruct leg length and global and femoral offset during MIS THA with the patient in the lateral decubitus position.

Tropical Cyclone Reconnaissance Over the Western North Pacific with the Global Hawk: Operational Requirements, Benefits, and Feasibility

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

Science mission conducted using the Global Hawk. Ten specialized instruments were installed on the aircraft to explore the upper troposphere and...shorelines and evaluate the potential for marine enforcement surveillance. The HALE UAV used in situ measurements of gases such as ozone , halocarbons...at altitudes of 65000 ft measurements may be obtained through the entire depth of the troposphere . Like many UAVs mentioned previously, the Global

Precipitation response to solar geoengineering in a high-resolution tropical-cyclone permitting coupled general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irvine, P. J.; Keith, D.; Dykema, J. A.; Vecchi, G. A.; Horowitz, L. W.

2016-12-01

Solar geoengineering may limit or even halt the rise in global-average surface temperatures. Evidence from the geoMIP model intercomparison project shows that idealized geoengineering can greatly reduce temperature changes on a region-by-region basis. If solar geoengineering is used to hold radiative forcing or surface temperatures constant in the face of rising CO2, then the global evaporation and precipitation rates will be reduced below pre-industrial. The spartial and frequency distribution of the precipitation response is, however, much less well understood. There is limited evidence that solar geoengineering may reduce extreme precipitation events more that it reduces mean precipitation, but that evidence is based on relatively course resolution models that may to a poor job representing the distribution of extreme precipitation in the current climate. The response of global and regional climate, as well as tropical cyclone (TC) activity, to increasing solar geoengineering is explored through experiments with climate models spanning a broad range of atmospheric resolutions. Solar geoengineering is represented by an idealized adjustment of the solar constant that roughly halves the rate of increase in radiative forcing in a scenario with increasing CO2 concentration. The coarsest resolution model has approximately a 2-degree global resolution, representative of the typical resolution of past GCMs used to explore global response to CO2 increase, and its response is compared to that of two tropical cyclone permitting GCMs of approximately 0.5 and 0.25 degree resolution (FLOR and HiFLOR). The models have exactly the same ocean and sea-ice components, as well as the same parameterizations and parameter settings. These high-resolution models are used for real-time seasonal prediction, providing a unified framework for seasonal-to-multidecadal climate modeling. We assess the extreme precipitation response, comparing the frequency distribution of extreme events with and without solar geoengineering. We compare our results to two prior studies of the response of climate extremes to solar geoengineering.

Impact of Ocean Warming on Tropical Cyclone Size and Its Destructiveness.

PubMed

Sun, Yuan; Zhong, Zhong; Li, Tim; Yi, Lan; Hu, Yijia; Wan, Hongchao; Chen, Haishan; Liao, Qianfeng; Ma, Chen; Li, Qihua

2017-08-15

The response of tropical cyclone (TC) destructive potential to global warming is an open issue. A number of previous studies have ignored the effect of TC size change in the context of global warming, which resulted in a significant underestimation of the TC destructive potential. The lack of reliable and consistent historical data on TC size limits the confident estimation of the linkage between the observed trend in TC size and that in sea surface temperature (SST) under the background of global climate warming. A regional atmospheric model is used in the present study to investigate the response of TC size and TC destructive potential to increases in SST. The results show that a large-scale ocean warming can lead to not only TC intensification but also TC expansion. The TC size increase in response to the ocean warming is possibly attributed to the increase in atmospheric convective instability in the TC outer region below the middle troposphere, which facilitates the local development of grid-scale ascending motion, low-level convergence and the acceleration of tangential winds. The numerical results indicate that TCs will become stronger, larger, and unexpectedly more destructive under global warming.

Hurricane Debby

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2013-04-19

... cloud-tracked winds at the different cloud levels. The wind vectors, shown in the right panel, reveal cyclonic motion associated with ... of cloud height and motions globally will help us monitor the effects of climate change on the three-dimensional distribution of ...

Combining Passive Microwave Sounders with CYGNSS information for improved retrievals: Observations during Hurricane Harvey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schreier, M. M.

2017-12-01

The launch of CYGNSS (Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System) has added an interesting component to satellite observations: it can provide wind speeds in the tropical area with a high repetition rate. Passive microwave sounders that are overpassing the same region can benefit from this information, when it comes to the retrieval of temperature or water profiles: the uncertainty about wind speeds has a strong impact on emissivity and reflectivity calculations with respect to surface temperature. This has strong influences on the uncertainty of retrieval of temperature and water content, especially under extreme weather conditions. Adding CYGNSS information to the retrieval can help to reduce errors and provide a significantly better sounder retrieval. Based on observations during Hurricane Harvey, we want to show the impact of CYGNSS data on the retrieval of passive microwave sensors. We will show examples on the impact on the retrieval from polar orbiting instruments, like the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) and AMSU-A/B on NOAA-18 and 19. In addition we will also show the impact on retrievals from HAMSR (High Altitude MMIC Sounding Radiometer), which was flying on the Global Hawk during the EPOCH campaign. We will compare the results with other observations and estimate the impact of additional CYGNSS information on the microwave retrieval, especially on the impact in error and uncertainty reduction. We think, that a synergetic use of these different data sources could significantly help to produce better assimilation products for forecast assimilation.

A Self-Tuning Kalman Filter for Autonomous Navigation Using the Global Positioning System (GPS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Truong, Son H.

1999-01-01

Most navigation systems currently operated by NASA are ground-based, and require extensive support to produce accurate results. Recently developed systems that use Kalman filter and GPS (Global Positioning Systems) data for orbit determination greatly reduce dependency on ground support, and have potential to provide significant economies for NASA spacecraft navigation. These systems, however, still rely on manual tuning from analysts. A sophisticated neuro-fuzzy component fully integrated with the flight navigation system can perform the self-tuning capability for the Kalman filter and help the navigation system recover from estimation errors in real time.

INTEGRATED INS/GPS NAVIGATION FROM A POPULAR PERSPECTIVE

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-02-13

Inertial navigation, blended with other navigation aids Global Positioning System (GPS) in particular, has gained significance due to enhanced navigation and inertial reference performance and dissimilarity for fault tolerance and anti-jamming. Relat...

Evaluation of Hardware and Software for a Small Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Navigation System (SANS)

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-09-01

Hyslop , G.L., Schieber, G.E., Schwartz, M.K., "Automated Mission Planning for the Standoff Land Attack Missile (SLAM)", Proceedings of the...1993, pp. 277-290. [PARK80] Parkinson, B.W., "Overview", Global Positioning System, Vol. 1, The Institute of Navigation, Washington, D.C., 1980 , pp...Navigation Message", Global Positioning System, Vol. 1, The Institute of Navigation, Washington, D.C., 1980 , pp. 55-73. 139 [WOOD851 Wooden, W. H

Solar Geoengineering and the Modulation of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Frequency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. C.; Haywood, J. M.; Hawcroft, M.; Jones, A.; Dunstone, N. J.; Hodges, K.

2017-12-01

Solar geoengineering (SG) refers to a wide range of proposed methods for counteracting global warming by artificially reducing solar insolation at Earth's surface. The most widely known SG proposal is stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) which has impacts analogous to those from large-scale volcanic eruptions. Observations following major volcanic eruptions indicate that aerosol enhancements confined to a single hemisphere effectively modulate North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the following years. Here we investigate the effects of both single-hemisphere and global SAI scenarios on North Atlantic TC activity using the HadGEM2-ES general circulation model (GCM). We show that a 5 Tg y-1 injection of sulphur dioxide (SO2) into the northern hemisphere (NH) stratosphere would produce a global-mean cooling of 1 K and simultaneously reduce TC activity (to 8 TCs y-1), while the same injection in the southern hemisphere (SH) would enhance TC activity (to 14 TCs y-1), relative to a recent historical period (1950-2000, 10 TCs y-1). Our results reemphasize the risks of regional geoengineering and should motivate policymakers to regulate large-scale unilateral geoengineering deployments.

Individual Global Navigation Satellite Systems in the Space Service Volume

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Force, Dale A.

2013-01-01

The use of individual Global Navigation Satellite Services (GPS, GLONASS, Galileo, and Beidou/COMPASS) for the position, navigation, and timing in the Space Service Volume at altitudes of 300 km, 3000 km, 8000 km, 15000 km, 25000 km, 36500km and 70000 km is examined and the percent availability of at least one and at least four satellites is presented.

Environmental Disaster and Economic Change: Do tropical cyclones have permanent effects on economic growth and structure?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jina, A.; von der Goltz, J.; Hsiang, S. M.

2011-12-01

Natural disasters have important, often devastating, effects upon economic growth and well-being. Due to this, disasters have become an active area of recent research and policy attention. However, much of this research has been narrowly focused, relying on anecdotal evidence and aggregated data to support conclusions about disaster impacts in the short-term. Employing a new global data set of tropical cyclone exposure from 1960 to 2008, we investigate in greater detail whether permanent changes in economic performance and structure can result from these extreme events in some cases. Our macro-economic analyses use the World Development Indicator dataset and have shown promising results: there are dramatic long-term economic transformations associated with tropical cyclones across a number of countries and industries. This effect is most clearly seen in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and some countries in Latin America, where negative changes in long-term growth trends are observed in the years following a large tropical cyclone. In many economies with a high exposure to tropical cyclone damage, there are noticeable structural changes within the economy. The impacts of disasters might be expressed through various economic and social channels, through direct loss of lives and infrastructure damage; for instance, the destruction of infrastructure such as ports may damage export opportunities where replacement capital is not readily available. These structural changes may have far-reaching implications for economic growth and welfare. Larger nations subjected to the impacts of tropical cyclones are thought to be able to relocate economically important activities that are damaged by cyclones, and so long-term trend changes are not observed, even for events that cause a large immediate decrease in national productivity. By investigating in a more rigorous fashion the hypothesis that the environment triggers these permanent economic changes, our work has implications for the conceptual foundations of both economic theory and sustainable development.

Explosive cyclones in CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seiler, C.; Zwiers, F. W.

2014-12-01

Explosive cyclones are rapidly intensifying low pressure systems with severe wind speeds and precipitation, affecting livelihoods and infrastructure primarily in coastal and marine environments. A better understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on these so called meteorological bombs is therefore of great societal relevance. This study evaluates how well CMIP5 climate models reproduce explosive cyclones in the extratropics of the northern hemisphere, and how these bombs respond to global warming. For this purpose an objective-feature tracking algorithm was used to identify and track extratropical cyclones from 25 CMIP5 models and 3 reanalysis products for the periods 1980 to 2005 and 2070 to 2099. Cyclones were identified as the maxima of T42 vorticity of 6h wind speed at 850 hPa. Explosive and non-explosive cyclones were separated based on the corresponding deepening rates of mean sea level pressure. Most models accurately reproduced the spatial distribution of bombs when compared to results from reanalysis data (R2 = 0.84, p-value = 0.00), with high frequencies along the Kuroshio Current and the Gulf Stream, as well as the exit regions of the polar jet streaks. Most models however significantly underestimated bomb frequencies by a third on average, and by 74% in the most extreme case. This negative frequency bias coincided with significant underestimations of either meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradients, or wind speeds of the polar jet streaks. Bomb frequency biases were significantly correlated with the number vertical model levels (R2= 0.36, p-value = 0.001), suggesting that the vertical atmospheric model resolution is crucial for simulating bomb frequencies accurately. The impacts of climate change on the location, frequency, and intensity of explosive cyclones were then explored for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Projections were related to model bias, resolution, projected changes of SST gradients, and wind speeds of the polar jet stream.

Modulation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis by Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation: An Anomalous Dynamic Genesis Potential Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, J.; Wang, B.

2016-12-01

The large scale circulation anomalies associated with boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) strongly controls the genesis of tropical cyclone in a global perspective. The present study attempts to reveal factors by which BSISO modulation of tropical cyclone genesis (TCG) using two genesis potential indices (GPI): Dynamic GPI (DGPI) and Emanuel and Nolan's GPI (ENGPI). The ENGPI contains two dynamic (the vertical wind shear and absolute vorticity at 850 hPa) and two thermodynamic factors (relative humidity at 600 hPa and maximum potential intensity), while DPGI replaced the two thermodynamic factors by two additional dynamic factors (500 hPa vertical velocity and meridional shear of zonal winds). The major basins of tropical cyclone genesis during May to October from 1979 to 2014 are divided into North Indian Ocean (NIO), Western North Pacific (WNP), Eastern North Pacific (ENP), and North Atlantic (NAT). The genesis numbers of tropical cyclone at each basin increased distinctively at its maximum active phase of BSISO, showing the significant modulation of ISO on tropical cyclone genesis in the Northern Hemisphere. Analysis of the individual contribution of each factors in GPI reveals that the vertical velocity at 500hPa of DGPI and the relative humidity at 600hPa of ENGPI play the most important role in modulating TCG by BSISO. The SST and maximum potential intensity of ENGPI did not represent important physical processes by which the BSISO circulation anomalies affect TCG. The evolution of eight-phase BSISO with intraseasonal prediction of TCG revealed great improvement by DGPI. The evolution of TCG associated with BSISO by basins, such as NIO, WNP, ENP, and NAT showed good performance in featuring the TCG variability, indicating the possibility of improving subseasonal prediction of TCG by our new DGPI.

Tropical cyclones cause CaCO3 undersaturation of coral reef seawater in a high-CO2 world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manzello, Derek; Enochs, Ian; Musielewicz, Sylvia; Carlton, Renée.; Gledhill, Dwight

2013-10-01

Ocean acidification is the global decline in seawater pH and calcium carbonate (CaCO3) saturation state (Ω) due to the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by the world's oceans. Acidification impairs CaCO3 shell and skeleton construction by marine organisms. Coral reefs are particularly vulnerable, as they are constructed by the CaCO3 skeletons of corals and other calcifiers. We understand relatively little about how coral reefs will respond to ocean acidification in combination with other disturbances, such as tropical cyclones. Seawater carbonate chemistry data collected from two reefs in the Florida Keys before, during, and after Tropical Storm Isaac provide the most thorough data to-date on how tropical cyclones affect the seawater CO2 system of coral reefs. Tropical Storm Isaac caused both an immediate and prolonged decline in seawater pH. Aragonite saturation state was depressed by 1.0 for a full week after the storm impact. Based on current "business-as-usual" CO2 emissions scenarios, we show that tropical cyclones with high rainfall and runoff can cause periods of undersaturation (Ω < 1.0) for high-Mg calcite and aragonite mineral phases at acidification levels before the end of this century. Week-long periods of undersaturation occur for 18 mol % high-Mg calcite after storms by the end of the century. In a high-CO2 world, CaCO3 undersaturation of coral reef seawater will occur as a result of even modest tropical cyclones. The expected increase in the strength, frequency, and rainfall of the most severe tropical cyclones with climate change in combination with ocean acidification will negatively impact the structural persistence of coral reefs.

Tropical Cyclones Cause CaCO3 Undersaturation of Coral Reef Seawater in a High-CO2 World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manzello, D.; Enochs, I.; Carlton, R.; Musielewicz, S.; Gledhill, D. K.

2013-12-01

Ocean acidification is the global decline in seawater pH and calcium carbonate (CaCO3) saturation state (Ω) due to the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by the world's oceans. Acidification impairs CaCO3 shell and skeleton construction by marine organisms. Coral reefs are particularly vulnerable, as they are constructed by the CaCO3 skeletons of corals and other calcifiers. We understand relatively little about how coral reefs will respond to ocean acidification in combination with other disturbances, such as tropical cyclones. Seawater carbonate chemistry data collected from two reefs in the Florida Keys before, during, and after Tropical Storm Isaac provide the most thorough data to-date on how tropical cyclones affect the seawater CO2-system of coral reefs. Tropical Storm Isaac caused both an immediate and prolonged decline in seawater pH. Aragonite saturation state was depressed by 1.0 for a full week after the storm impact. Based on current 'business-as-usual' CO2 emissions scenarios, we show that tropical cyclones with high rainfall and runoff can cause periods of undersaturation (Ω < 1.0) for high-Mg calcite and aragonite mineral phases at acidification levels before the end of this century. Week-long periods of undersaturation occur for 18 mol% high-Mg calcite after storms by the end of the century. In a high-CO2 world, CaCO3 undersaturation of coral reef seawater can occur as a result of even modest tropical cyclones. The expected increase in the strength, frequency, and rainfall of the most severe tropical cyclones with climate change in combination with ocean acidification will negatively impact the structural persistence of coral reefs over this century.

Cluster Analysis of Downscaled and Explicitly Simulated North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks

DOE PAGES

Daloz, Anne S.; Camargo, S. J.; Kossin, J. P.; ...

2015-02-11

A realistic representation of the North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks is crucial as it allows, for example, explaining potential changes in U.S. landfalling systems. Here, the authors present a tentative study that examines the ability of recent climate models to represent North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. Tracks from two types of climate models are evaluated: explicit tracks are obtained from tropical cyclones simulated in regional or global climate models with moderate to high horizontal resolution (1°–0.25°), and downscaled tracks are obtained using a downscaling technique with large-scale environmental fields from a subset of these models. Here, for both configurations, tracksmore » are objectively separated into four groups using a cluster technique, leading to a zonal and a meridional separation of the tracks. The meridional separation largely captures the separation between deep tropical and subtropical, hybrid or baroclinic cyclones, while the zonal separation segregates Gulf of Mexico and Cape Verde storms. The properties of the tracks’ seasonality, intensity, and power dissipation index in each cluster are documented for both configurations. The authors’ results show that, except for the seasonality, the downscaled tracks better capture the observed characteristics of the clusters. The authors also use three different idealized scenarios to examine the possible future changes of tropical cyclone tracks under 1) warming sea surface temperature, 2) increasing carbon dioxide, and 3) a combination of the two. The response to each scenario is highly variable depending on the simulation considered. Lastly, the authors examine the role of each cluster in these future changes and find no preponderant contribution of any single cluster over the others.« less

An Observational Study of Tropical Cyclone Spin-Up in Supertyphoon Jangmi and Hurricane Georges

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-12-01

Reconnaissance Squadron stationed at Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, Mississippi, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Aircraft...implementation of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Global Positioning System (GPS) dropsonde in specialized boundary-layer...transiting the western Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean basins. 107 APPENDIX A: NCAR GPS DROPSONDES The Global Positioning System (GPS

Severe weather investigation using GNSS signals - a new dimension of GNSS meteorology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohm, W.; Zhang, K.; Choy, S.; Kuleshov, Y.; Bosy, J.; Kroszczyński, K.

2012-04-01

The Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) signals transmitted from satellites are subjected to atmospheric delays since the signals have to propagate through different layers of the atmosphere before GNSS receiver receives them. Two major distinctive effects according to the nature of the impact on the signal propagation are the ionosphere which is a dispersive media and the troposphere which is a non-dispersive layer. In this study, our focus of research is concentrated on the troposphere and the severe weather phenomena caused by midlatitude cyclonic storms. GNSS tomography technique is used to investigate both the spatial and temporal structures of a cyclonic storm. New algorithms will be developed based on optimal integrations of various observation techniques, such as ground-based meteorological measurements, radiosonde data, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, GNSS radio occultation (RO) profiles. Our initial results suggest that the ground-based GNSS CORS stations will play a major role in the integration process. The structure and distribution of the GNSS CORS network and satellite constellations in context of size and resolution of tomography model are investigated along with the a priori information required, observation and estimation time interval and precision and accuracy needs. A number of numerical analyses are carried out using actual measurements in different parts of the world to evaluate the new algorithms developed through international collaboration. It is expected that GNSS tomography with a number of integrated measurements will provide an important insight into the vertical as well as the horizontal structure of different kinds of severe weather phenomena. It is also expected that GNSS tomography will become an important tool for the study of the severe weather processes, such as the development, maturation, and dissipation stages, which is complementary to other meteorological techniques such as weather radars and microwave radiometers. Potential usages of the new technique in real and/or near-real time would provide an exciting opportunity to launch monitoring and warning services that are able to offer vital information for community and decision makers.

Variability of cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe since 1871

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welker, C.; Martius, O.

2012-04-01

The scarce availability of long-term atmospheric data series has so far limited the analysis of low-frequency activity and intensity changes of cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe. A novel reanalysis product, the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR; Compo et al., 2011), spanning 1871 to present, offers potentially a very valuable resource for the analysis of the decadal-scale variability of cyclones over the North Atlantic sector and Europe. In the 20CR, only observations of synoptic surface pressure were assimilated. Monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice distributions served as boundary conditions. An Ensemble Kalman Filter assimilation technique was applied. "First guess" fields were obtained from an ensemble (with 56 members) of short-range numerical weather prediction forecasts. We apply the cyclone identification algorithm of Wernli and Schwierz (2006) to this data set, i.e. to each individual ensemble member. This enables us to give an uncertainty estimation of our findings. We find that 20CR shows a temporally relatively homogeneous representation of cyclone activity over Europe and great parts of the North Atlantic. Pronounced decadal-scale variability is found both in the frequency and intensity of cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe. The low-frequency variability is consistently represented in all ensemble members. Our analyses indicate that in the past approximately 140 years the variability of cyclone activity and intensity over the North Atlantic and Europe can principally be associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and secondary with a pattern similar to the East Atlantic pattern. Regionally however, the correlation between cyclone activity and these dominant modes of variability changes over time. Compo, G. P., J. S. Whitaker, P. D. Sardeshmukh, N. Matsui, R. J. Allan, X. Yin, B. E. Gleason, R. S. Vose, G. Rutledge, P. Bessemoulin, S. Brönnimann, M. Brunet, R. I. Crouthamel, A. N. Grant, P. Y. Groisman, P. D. Jones, M. C. Kruk, A. C. Kruger, G. J. Marshall, M. Maugeri, H. Y. Mok, Ø. Nordli, T. F. Ross, R. M. Trigo, X. L. Wang, S. D. Woodruff, and S. J. Worley, 2011: The Twentieth Century Reanalysis project. Quarterly J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1-28. Wernli, H. and C. Schwierz, 2006: Surface cyclones in the ERA-40 dataset (1958-2001). Part I: Novel identification method and global climatology. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 2486-2507.

Increased wind risk from sting-jet windstorms with climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez-Alvarado, Oscar; Gray, Suzanne L.; Hart, Neil C. G.; Clark, Peter A.; Hodges, Kevin; Roberts, Malcolm J.

2018-04-01

Extra-tropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over western Europe. The strongest cyclones, often termed windstorms, have a large socio-economic impact on landfall due to strong surface winds and coastal storm surges. Climate model integrations have predicted a future increase in the frequency of, and potential damage from, European windstorms and yet these integrations cannot properly represent localised jets, such as sting jets, that may significantly enhance damage. Here we present the first prediction of how the climatology of sting-jet-containing cyclones will change in a future warmer climate, considering the North Atlantic and Europe. A proven sting-jet precursor diagnostic is applied to 13 year present-day and future (~2100) climate integrations from the Met Office Unified Model in its Global Atmosphere 3.0 configuration. The present-day climate results are consistent with previously-published results from a reanalysis dataset (with around 32% of cyclones exhibiting the sing-jet precursor), lending credibility to the analysis of the future-climate integration. The proportion of cyclones exhibiting the sting-jet precursor in the future-climate integration increases to 45%. Furthermore, while the proportion of explosively-deepening storms increases only slightly in the future climate, the proportion of those storms with the sting-jet precursor increases by 60%. The European resolved-wind risk associated with explosively-deepening storms containing a sting-jet precursor increases substantially in the future climate; in reality this wind risk is likely to be further enhanced by the release of localised moist instability, unresolved by typical climate models.

Large scale features and energetics of the hybrid subtropical low `Duck' over the Tasman Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pezza, Alexandre Bernardes; Garde, Luke Andrew; Veiga, José Augusto Paixão; Simmonds, Ian

2014-01-01

New aspects of the genesis and partial tropical transition of a rare hybrid subtropical cyclone on the eastern Australian coast are presented. The `Duck' (March 2001) attracted more recent attention due to its underlying genesis mechanisms being remarkably similar to the first South Atlantic hurricane (March 2004). Here we put this cyclone in climate perspective, showing that it belongs to a class within the 1 % lowest frequency percentile in the Southern Hemisphere as a function of its thermal evolution. A large scale analysis reveals a combined influence from an existing tropical cyclone and a persistent mid-latitude block. A Lagrangian tracer showed that the upper level air parcels arriving at the cyclone's center had been modified by the blocking. Lorenz energetics is used to identify connections with both tropical and extratropical processes, and reveal how these create the large scale environment conducive to the development of the vortex. The results reveal that the blocking exerted the most important influence, with a strong peak in barotropic generation of kinetic energy over a large area traversed by the air parcels just before genesis. A secondary peak also coincided with the first time the cyclone developed an upper level warm core, but with insufficient amplitude to allow for a full tropical transition. The applications of this technique are numerous and promising, particularly on the use of global climate models to infer changes in environmental parameters associated with severe storms.

A Global Climatology of Extratropical Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camargo, S. J.; Bieli, M.; Sobel, A. H.; Evans, J. L.; Hall, T. M.

2017-12-01

When moving into midlatitude regions, tropical cyclones often undergo a process called extratropical transition (ET), in which they radically change their physical structure and develop characteristics typical of extratropical cyclones. We present the first climatology of ET that encompasses all major global tropical cyclone basins and is based on a consistent set of data, time period, and method. Using best-track data from 1979-2015 to define the tracks of the storm centers, we identify storms that undergo ET by means of their paths in the cyclone phase space (CPS), calculated from geopotential height fields in reanalysis datasets. Two reanalyses are employed and compared for this purpose, the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) and the ECMWF Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim). The results are used to study the seasonal and geographical distributions of storms undergoing ET, inter-basin differences in the statistics of ET occurrence, and the differences between the ETs defined by CPS and those defined by the 'extratropical' labels (determined subjectively by human forecasters using a wider range of data) in the best-track archives. About 50% of all storms in the North Atlantic and the Western North Pacific undergo ET. In the southern hemisphere, ET fractions range from about 20% in the South Indian Ocean and the Australian region to 40% in the South Pacific. The North Atlantic and Western North Pacific exhibit somewhat different seasonal cycles, with the probability of ET maximizing later in the North Atlantic, but having a local minimum in the earlier part of the peak season in both basins. Southern hemispheric basins have much less pronounced seasonal cycles. The classification of ET storms based on JRA-55 agrees better with the best-track data than the ERA-Interim classification. In the North Atlantic and the Western North Pacific, the differences are small and both reanalyses achieve F1 performance scores of at least 0.8, but JRA-55 has a higher classification skill in all other basins.Due to the global scope and consistent methodology, the results presented are well suited to serve as a benchmark for other studies including research on ET under climate change scenarios.

Analysis of the interannual variability of tropical cyclones striking the California coast based on statistical downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendez, F. J.; Rueda, A.; Barnard, P.; Mori, N.; Nakajo, S.; Espejo, A.; del Jesus, M.; Diez Sierra, J.; Cofino, A. S.; Camus, P.

2016-02-01

Hurricanes hitting California have a very low ocurrence probability due to typically cool ocean temperature and westward tracks. However, damages associated to these improbable events would be dramatic in Southern California and understanding the oceanographic and atmospheric drivers is of paramount importance for coastal risk management for present and future climates. A statistical analysis of the historical events is very difficult due to the limited resolution of atmospheric and oceanographic forcing data available. In this work, we propose a combination of: (a) statistical downscaling methods (Espejo et al, 2015); and (b) a synthetic stochastic tropical cyclone (TC) model (Nakajo et al, 2014). To build the statistical downscaling model, Y=f(X), we apply a combination of principal component analysis and the k-means classification algorithm to find representative patterns from a potential TC index derived from large-scale SST fields in Eastern Central Pacific (predictor X) and the associated tropical cyclone ocurrence (predictand Y). SST data comes from NOAA Extended Reconstructed SST V3b providing information from 1854 to 2013 on a 2.0 degree x 2.0 degree global grid. As data for the historical occurrence and paths of tropical cycloneas are scarce, we apply a stochastic TC model which is based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the joint distribution of track, minimum sea level pressure and translation speed of the historical events in the Eastern Central Pacific Ocean. Results will show the ability of the approach to explain seasonal-to-interannual variability of the predictor X, which is clearly related to El Niño Southern Oscillation. References Espejo, A., Méndez, F.J., Diez, J., Medina, R., Al-Yahyai, S. (2015) Seasonal probabilistic forecasting of tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean, Journal of Flood Risk Management, DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12197 Nakajo, S., N. Mori, T. Yasuda, and H. Mase (2014) Global Stochastic Tropical Cyclone Model Based on Principal Component Analysis and Cluster Analysis, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-13-08.1

Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murakami, Hiroyuki; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Underwood, Seth

2017-12-01

In 2014 and 2015, post-monsoon extremely severe cyclonic storms (ESCS)—defined by the WMO as tropical storms with lifetime maximum winds greater than 46 m s-1—were first observed over the Arabian Sea (ARB), causing widespread damage. However, it is unknown to what extent this abrupt increase in post-monsoon ESCSs can be linked to anthropogenic warming, natural variability, or stochastic behaviour. Here, using a suite of high-resolution global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of ESCSs, we show that anthropogenic forcing has likely increased the probability of late-season ECSCs occurring in the ARB since the preindustrial era. However, the specific timing of observed late-season ESCSs in 2014 and 2015 was likely due to stochastic processes. It is further shown that natural variability played a minimal role in the observed increase of ESCSs. Thus, continued anthropogenic forcing will further amplify the risk of cyclones in the ARB, with corresponding socio-economic implications.

Spatial relationships between tropical cyclone frequencies and population densities in Haiti since the 19th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klose, C. D.

2011-12-01

The second edition of the United Nations Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction in 2011 outlined that the worldwide physical exposure to tropical cyclones increased by 192 per cent between 1970 and 2010. For the past 160 years, the Republic of Haiti has experienced numerous tropical storms and hurricanes which may have directly effected the country's development path. However, statistical data regarding storm frequencies and population densities in space and time show that the population's exposure in Haiti may have more negatively influenced its development than the actual number of storms and hurricanes. Haitians, in particular, those living in urban areas have been exposed to much higher tropical cyclone hazards than rural areas since the second half of the 20th century. Specifically, more storms made landfall in regions of accelerated migration/urbanization, such as, in departments Ouest, Artibonite, Nord, and Nord-Ouest with Haiti's four largest cities Port-au-Prince, Gonaives, Cap-Haitien and Port-de-Paix.

The Dependence of Tropical Cyclone Count and Size on Rotation Rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavas, D. R.; Reed, K. A.

2017-12-01

Both theory and idealized equilibrium modeling studies indicate that tropical cyclone size decreases with background rotation rate. In contrast, in real-world observations size tends to increase with latitude. Here we seek to resolve this apparent contradiction via a set of reduced-complexity global aquaplanet simulations with varying planetary rotation rates using the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model 5. The latitudinal distribution of both storm count and size are found to vary markedly with rotation rate, yielding insight into the dynamical constraints on tropical cyclone activity on a rotating planet. Moreover, storm size is found to vary non-monotonically with latitude, indicating that non-equilibrium effects are crucial to the life-cycle evolution of size in nature. Results are then compared to experiments in idealized, time-dependent limited-area modeling simulations using CM1 in axisymmetric and three-dimensional geometry. Taken together, this hierarchy of models is used to quantify the role of equilibrium versus transient controls on storm size and the relevance of each to real storms in nature.

TDRSS Augmentation System for Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heckler, Gregory W.; Gramling, Cheryl; Valdez, Jennifer; Baldwin, Philip

2016-01-01

In 2015, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) reinvigorated the development of the TDRSS Augmentation Service for Satellites (TASS). TASS is a global, space-based, communications and navigation service for users of Global Navigation Satellite Systems(GNSS) and the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS). TASS leverages the existing TDRSS to provide an S-band beacon radio navigation and messaging source to users at orbital altitudes 1400 km and below.

TDRSS Augmentation Service for Satellites (TASS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heckler, Gregory W.; Gramling, Cheryl; Valdez, Jennifer; Baldwin, Philip

2016-01-01

In 2015, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) reinvigorated the development of the TDRSS Augmentation Service for Satellites (TASS). TASS is a global, space-based, communications and navigation service for users of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) and the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS). TASS leverages the existing TDRSS to provide an S-band beacon radio navigation and messaging source to users at orbital altitudes 1400 km and below.

Teleconnection Locator: TeleLoc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowen, M. K.; Duffy, D.

2016-12-01

Extreme climate events, such as tropical storms, droughts, and floods, have an enormous impact on all aspects of society. Being able to detect the causes of such events on a global scale is paramount to being able to predict when and where these events will occur. These teleconnections, where a small change in a closed, complex system creates drastic disturbances elsewhere in the system, are generally represented by an index, one of the most famous being the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, due to the enormity, complexity, and technical challenges surrounding climate and its data, it is hypothesized that many of these teleconnections have as of yet gone undiscovered. TeleLoc (Teleconnection Locator) is a machine-learning framework combining a number of techniques for finding correlations between weather trends and extreme climate events. The current focus is on connecting global trends with tropical cyclones. A combination of two data sets, The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA2), are being utilized. PostGIS is used for raw data storage, and a Python API has been developed as the core of the framework. Cyclones are first clustered using a combination of Symbolic Aggregate ApproXimation (this allows for a symbolic, sequential representation of the various time-series variables of interest) and DBSCAN. This serves to break the events into subcategories, which alleviates computational load for the next step. Events which are clustered together (those with similar characteristics) are compared against global climate variables of interest, which are also converted to a symbolic form, leading up to the event using Association Rule Mining. Results will be shown where cyclones have been clustered, specifically in the West Pacific storm basin, as well as the global variable symbolic subsections with a high support that have been singled out for analysis.

A New Tropical Cyclone Dynamic Initialization Technique Using High Temporal and Spatial Density Atmospheric Motion Vectors and Airborne Field Campaign Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hendricks, Eric A.; Bell, Michael M.; Elsberry, Russell L.; Velden, Chris S.; Cecil, Dan

2016-01-01

Background: Initialization of tropical cyclones in numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems is a great challenge: Mass-wind ?eld balance; Secondary circulation and heating; Asymmetries. There can be large adjustments in structure and intensity in the ?rst 24 hours if the initial vortex is not in balance: Spurious gravity waves; Spin-up (model and physics). Existing mesoscale NWP model TC (Tropical Cyclone) initialization strategies: Bogus vortex, cold start from global analyses; 3DVAR or 4DVAR, possibly with synthetic observations; EnKF (Ensemble Kalman Filter); Dynamic initialization. Dynamic initialization allows vortex to have improved balance and physics spin-up at the initial time (e.g., Hendricks et al. 2013, 2011; Nguyen and Chen 2011; Fiorino and Warner 1981; Hoke and Anthes 1976). Himawari-8 geostationary satellite has capability of continuous imagery (10-minutes) over the full disk: New GOES-R satellites will have same capability. This will allow for unprecedented observations of tropical cyclones. However, current data assimila1on systems are not capable of ingesting such high temporal observations (Atmospheric Mo1on Vectors - AMVs). Hourly AMVs are produced, and thinned to 100-kilometer spacing in the horizontal. An entirely new data assimilation concept is required to utilize these observations.

Technical standing order : airborne supplemental navigation equipment using the global positioning system (GPS)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-01-01

This technical standard order (TSO) prescribes the minimum performance standard that airborne supplemental area navigation equipment using the global positioning system (GPS) must meet in order to be identified with the applicable TSO marking. Airbor...

76 FR 5068 - Establishment of Low Altitude Area Navigation Routes (T-281, T-283, T-285, T-286, and T-288...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-28

... (IFR) approved Global Positioning System (GPS)/Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) equipment... only be available for use by GPS/GNSS equipped aircraft. This action enhances safety and facilitates...

Navigation and Landing Transition Strategy

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-08-01

Attached is the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Navigation and Landing Transition Strategy. This report defines the satellite navigation transition strategy that considers the vulnerability of the Global Positioning System (GPS) and describes...

Software engineering processes for Class D missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Killough, Ronnie; Rose, Debi

2013-09-01

Software engineering processes are often seen as anathemas; thoughts of CMMI key process areas and NPR 7150.2A compliance matrices can motivate a software developer to consider other career fields. However, with adequate definition, common-sense application, and an appropriate level of built-in flexibility, software engineering processes provide a critical framework in which to conduct a successful software development project. One problem is that current models seem to be built around an underlying assumption of "bigness," and assume that all elements of the process are applicable to all software projects regardless of size and tolerance for risk. This is best illustrated in NASA's NPR 7150.2A in which, aside from some special provisions for manned missions, the software processes are to be applied based solely on the criticality of the software to the mission, completely agnostic of the mission class itself. That is, the processes applicable to a Class A mission (high priority, very low risk tolerance, very high national significance) are precisely the same as those applicable to a Class D mission (low priority, high risk tolerance, low national significance). This paper will propose changes to NPR 7150.2A, taking mission class into consideration, and discuss how some of these changes are being piloted for a current Class D mission—the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS).

Cruise Missile Penaid Nonproliferation: Hindering the Spread of Countermeasures Against Cruise Missile Defenses

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

this report treats cruise missile penaids and UAV penaids, sometimes called “self-protection” (see La Franchi , 2004), interchangeably. 8 Cruise...Penaid Export Controls 41 2. Anti-Jam Equipment MTCR Item 11.A.3.b.3 (Avionics): Current text: “Receiving equipment for Global Navigation Satellite...subsystems beyond those for global navigation satellite systems to all sensor, navigation, and communications systems, and add “including multi-mode

Typhoon Yolanda/Haiyan and climate justice.

PubMed

Yamada, Seiji; Galat, Absalon

2014-10-01

The extreme weather events that the world is experiencing are consistent with the effects of anthropogenic climate change. The western North Pacific is the area of the world with the most intense tropical cyclones. Increased sea surface temperatures directly contribute to the wind speed of storms. The 2013 Typhoon Yolanda/Haiyan was the strongest tropical cyclone in recorded history to make landfall-causing more than 6000 deaths in the Philippines, mostly from storm surge. This event represents a climate injustice. On one hand, disaster prevention and preparedness were inadequate for impoverished populations in the Philippines who lived in poorly constructed housing. While the international community assisted with the response, recovery was hampered by inadequate and inequitable investment. On the other hand, climate change has been driven by the carbon emissions of industrialized states. Those who call for climate justice argue for more robust measures to control carbon emissions responsible for climate change and worsening global health security. As global citizens and as health professionals, we examine the implications for all of us as moral actors.

Global warming-induced upper-ocean freshening and the intensification of super typhoons

PubMed Central

Balaguru, Karthik; Foltz, Gregory R.; Leung, L. Ruby; Emanuel, Kerry A.

2016-01-01

Super typhoons (STYs), intense tropical cyclones of the western North Pacific, rank among the most destructive natural hazards globally. The violent winds of these storms induce deep mixing of the upper ocean, resulting in strong sea surface cooling and making STYs highly sensitive to ocean density stratification. Although a few studies examined the potential impacts of changes in ocean thermal structure on future tropical cyclones, they did not take into account changes in near-surface salinity. Here, using a combination of observations and coupled climate model simulations, we show that freshening of the upper ocean, caused by greater rainfall in places where typhoons form, tends to intensify STYs by reducing their ability to cool the upper ocean. We further demonstrate that the strengthening effect of this freshening over the period 1961–2008 is ∼53% stronger than the suppressive effect of temperature, whereas under twenty-first century projections, the positive effect of salinity is about half of the negative effect of ocean temperature changes. PMID:27886199

Global warming-induced upper-ocean freshening and the intensification of super typhoons

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balaguru, Karthik; Foltz, Gregory R.; Leung, L. Ruby

Here, super typhoons (STYs), intense tropical cyclones of the western North Pacific, rank among the most destructive natural hazards globally. The violent winds of these storms induce deep mixing of the upper ocean, resulting in strong sea surface cooling and making STYs highly sensitive to ocean density stratification. Although a few studies examined the potential impacts of changes in ocean thermal structure on future tropical cyclones, they did not take into account changes in near-surface salinity. Here, using a combination of observations and coupled climate model simulations, we show that freshening of the upper ocean, caused by greater rainfall inmore » places where typhoons form, tends to intensify STYs by reducing their ability to cool the upper ocean. We further demonstrate that the strengthening effect of this freshening over the period 1961–2008 is ~53% stronger than the suppressive effect of temperature, whereas under twenty-first century projections, the positive effect of salinity is about half of the negative effect of ocean temperature changes.« less

Global composites of surface wind speeds in tropical cyclones based on a 12 year scatterometer database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klotz, Bradley W.; Jiang, Haiyan

2016-10-01

A 12 year global database of rain-corrected satellite scatterometer surface winds for tropical cyclones (TCs) is used to produce composites of TC surface wind speed distributions relative to vertical wind shear and storm motion directions in each TC-prone basin and various TC intensity stages. These composites corroborate ideas presented in earlier studies, where maxima are located right of motion in the Earth-relative framework. The entire TC surface wind asymmetry is down motion left for all basins and for lower strength TCs after removing the motion vector. Relative to the shear direction, the motion-removed composites indicate that the surface wind asymmetry is located down shear left for the outer region of all TCs, but for the inner-core region it varies from left of shear to down shear right for different basin and TC intensity groups. Quantification of the surface wind asymmetric structure in further stratifications is a necessary next step for this scatterometer data set.

Global warming-induced upper-ocean freshening and the intensification of super typhoons.

PubMed

Balaguru, Karthik; Foltz, Gregory R; Leung, L Ruby; Emanuel, Kerry A

2016-11-25

Super typhoons (STYs), intense tropical cyclones of the western North Pacific, rank among the most destructive natural hazards globally. The violent winds of these storms induce deep mixing of the upper ocean, resulting in strong sea surface cooling and making STYs highly sensitive to ocean density stratification. Although a few studies examined the potential impacts of changes in ocean thermal structure on future tropical cyclones, they did not take into account changes in near-surface salinity. Here, using a combination of observations and coupled climate model simulations, we show that freshening of the upper ocean, caused by greater rainfall in places where typhoons form, tends to intensify STYs by reducing their ability to cool the upper ocean. We further demonstrate that the strengthening effect of this freshening over the period 1961-2008 is ∼53% stronger than the suppressive effect of temperature, whereas under twenty-first century projections, the positive effect of salinity is about half of the negative effect of ocean temperature changes.

Global warming-induced upper-ocean freshening and the intensification of super typhoons

DOE PAGES

Balaguru, Karthik; Foltz, Gregory R.; Leung, L. Ruby; ...

2016-11-25

Here, super typhoons (STYs), intense tropical cyclones of the western North Pacific, rank among the most destructive natural hazards globally. The violent winds of these storms induce deep mixing of the upper ocean, resulting in strong sea surface cooling and making STYs highly sensitive to ocean density stratification. Although a few studies examined the potential impacts of changes in ocean thermal structure on future tropical cyclones, they did not take into account changes in near-surface salinity. Here, using a combination of observations and coupled climate model simulations, we show that freshening of the upper ocean, caused by greater rainfall inmore » places where typhoons form, tends to intensify STYs by reducing their ability to cool the upper ocean. We further demonstrate that the strengthening effect of this freshening over the period 1961–2008 is ~53% stronger than the suppressive effect of temperature, whereas under twenty-first century projections, the positive effect of salinity is about half of the negative effect of ocean temperature changes.« less

Hurricane Forecasting with the High-resolution NASA Finite-volume General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atlas, R.; Reale, O.; Shen, B.-W.; Lin, S.-J.; Chern, J.-D.; Putman, W.; Lee, T.; Yeh, K.-S.; Bosilovich, M.; Radakovich, J.

2004-01-01

A high-resolution finite-volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM), resulting from a development effort of more than ten years, is now being run operationally at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and Ames Research Center. The model is based on a finite-volume dynamical core with terrain-following Lagrangian control-volume discretization and performs efficiently on massive parallel architectures. The computational efficiency allows simulations at a resolution of a quarter of a degree, which is double the resolution currently adopted by most global models in operational weather centers. Such fine global resolution brings us closer to overcoming a fundamental barrier in global atmospheric modeling for both weather and climate, because tropical cyclones and even tropical convective clusters can be more realistically represented. In this work, preliminary results of the fvGCM are shown. Fifteen simulations of four Atlantic tropical cyclones in 2002 and 2004 are chosen because of strong and varied difficulties presented to numerical weather forecasting. It is shown that the fvGCM, run at the resolution of a quarter of a degree, can produce very good forecasts of these tropical systems, adequately resolving problems like erratic track, abrupt recurvature, intense extratropical transition, multiple landfall and reintensification, and interaction among vortices.

The Tropopause Inversion Layer in Baroclinic Life Cycle Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wirth, Volkmar; Erler, Andre

2010-05-01

The Tropopause Inversion Layer (TIL) is a region of enhanced static stability just above the thermal tropopause. It is a ubiquitous feature in midlatitudes and is well characterized by observations; however, it still lacks a full theoretical explanation. The current study uses adiabatic baroclinic life-cycle experiments in order to investigate dynamical mechanisms that lead to the formation of a TIL. Consistent with earlier results, no TIL is found above cyclonic anomalies, while a pronounced TIL is found above anticyclonic anomalies early during the life cycle. Interestingly, regarding tropopause based global mean profiles, a TIL can be seen only much later during the life cycle, at a time when wave breaking starts to occur. There is a significant rise of the thermal tropopause, which is spatially and temporally correlated with TIL formation. In contrast, the dynamical tropopause does not rise significantly and does not exhibit a TIL in the global mean. The results of these experiments are interpreted using earlier results about the nonlinear dependence of the TIL amplitude on the scale of the tropopause anomaly. The analysis suggests that the TIL (as a global mean feature) is linked to a strongly asymmetric distribution of cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies, which occurs after the wave breaking event.

Globally Gridded Satellite observations for climate studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knapp, K.R.; Ansari, S.; Bain, C.L.; Bourassa, M.A.; Dickinson, M.J.; Funk, Chris; Helms, C.N.; Hennon, C.C.; Holmes, C.D.; Huffman, G.J.; Kossin, J.P.; Lee, H.-T.; Loew, A.; Magnusdottir, G.

2011-01-01

Geostationary satellites have provided routine, high temporal resolution Earth observations since the 1970s. Despite the long period of record, use of these data in climate studies has been limited for numerous reasons, among them that no central archive of geostationary data for all international satellites exists, full temporal and spatial resolution data are voluminous, and diverse calibration and navigation formats encumber the uniform processing needed for multisatellite climate studies. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) set the stage for overcoming these issues by archiving a subset of the full-resolution geostationary data at ~10-km resolution at 3-hourly intervals since 1983. Recent efforts at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center to provide convenient access to these data include remapping the data to a standard map projection, recalibrating the data to optimize temporal homogeneity, extending the record of observations back to 1980, and reformatting the data for broad public distribution. The Gridded Satellite (GridSat) dataset includes observations from the visible, infrared window, and infrared water vapor channels. Data are stored in Network Common Data Format (netCDF) using standards that permit a wide variety of tools and libraries to process the data quickly and easily. A novel data layering approach, together with appropriate satellite and file metadata, allows users to access GridSat data at varying levels of complexity based on their needs. The result is a climate data record already in use by the meteorological community. Examples include reanalysis of tropical cyclones, studies of global precipitation, and detection and tracking of the intertropical convergence zone.

Globally Gridded Satellite (GridSat) Observations for Climate Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knapp, Kenneth R.; Ansari, Steve; Bain, Caroline L.; Bourassa, Mark A.; Dickinson, Michael J.; Funk, Chris; Helms, Chip N.; Hennon, Christopher C.; Holmes, Christopher D.; Huffman, George J.;

The Properties of Convective Clouds Over the Western Pacific and Their Relationship to the Environment of Tropical Cyclones

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-30

oceans from radar , aircraft and satellite data; 2) Derive an accurate mesoscale environment of convective systems through the assimilation of satellite... radar , lidar and in-situ data; 3) Evaluate the quality of the global forecast system (e.g., Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System or...from Aqua and NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), 2) developing mesoscale data assimilation techniques to assimilate satellite, radar

Satellite time-transfer: recent developments and projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewandowski, W.; Nawrocki, J.

2006-10-01

Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) keep a central role in the international timekeeping. American Global Positioning System (GPS) is a navigation system that has proven itself to be a reliable source of positioning for both the military community and the civilian community. But, little known by many, is the fact that GPS has proven itself to be an important and valuable utility to the timekeeping community (Lewandowski et al. 1999). GPS is a versatile and global tool which can be used to both distribute time to an arbitrary number of users and synchronise clocks over large distances with a high degree of precision and accuracy. Similar performance can be obtained with Russian Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS). It is expected in the near future satellites of a new European navigation system GALILEO might bring some important opportunities for international timekeeping. This paper after a brief introduction to international timekeeping focuses on the description of recent progress in time transfer techniques using GNSS satellites.

Modular Software for Spacecraft Navigation Using the Global Positioning System (GPS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Truong, S. H.; Hartman, K. R.; Weidow, D. A.; Berry, D. L.; Oza, D. H.; Long, A. C.; Joyce, E.; Steger, W. L.

1996-01-01

The Goddard Space Flight Center Flight Dynamics and Mission Operations Divisions have jointly investigated the feasibility of engineering modular Global Positioning SYSTEM (GPS) navigation software to support both real time flight and ground postprocessing configurations. The goals of this effort are to define standard GPS data interfaces and to engineer standard, reusable navigation software components that can be used to build a broad range of GPS navigation support applications. The paper discusses the GPS modular software (GMOD) system and operations concepts, major requirements, candidate software architecture, feasibility assessment and recommended software interface standards. In additon, ongoing efforts to broaden the scope of the initial study and to develop modular software to support autonomous navigation using GPS are addressed,

Addressing the Influence of Space Weather on Airline Navigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sparks, Lawrence

2012-01-01

The advent of satellite-based augmentation systems has made it possible to navigate aircraft safely using radio signals emitted by global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) such as the Global Positioning System. As a signal propagates through the earth's ionosphere, it suffers delay that is proportional to the total electron content encountered along the raypath. Since the magnitude of this total electron content is strongly influenced by space weather, the safety and reliability of GNSS for airline navigation requires continual monitoring of the state of the ionosphere and calibration of ionospheric delay. This paper examines the impact of space weather on GNSS-based navigation and provides an overview of how the Wide Area Augmentation System protects its users from positioning error due to ionospheric disturbances

Results from Navigator GPS Flight Testing for the Magnetospheric MultiScale Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lulich, Tyler D.; Bamford, William A.; Wintermitz, Luke M. B.; Price, Samuel R.

2012-01-01

The recent delivery of the first Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Navigator Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers to the Magnetospheric MultiScale (MMS) mission spacecraft is a high water mark crowning a decade of research and development in high-altitude space-based GPS. Preceding MMS delivery, the engineering team had developed receivers to support multiple missions and mission studies, such as Low Earth Orbit (LEO) navigation for the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM), above the constellation navigation for the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) proof-of-concept studies, cis-Lunar navigation with rapid re-acquisition during re-entry for the Orion Project and an orbital demonstration on the Space Shuttle during the Hubble Servicing Mission (HSM-4).

High-Precision Image Aided Inertial Navigation with Known Features: Observability Analysis and Performance Evaluation

PubMed Central

Jiang, Weiping; Wang, Li; Niu, Xiaoji; Zhang, Quan; Zhang, Hui; Tang, Min; Hu, Xiangyun

2014-01-01

A high-precision image-aided inertial navigation system (INS) is proposed as an alternative to the carrier-phase-based differential Global Navigation Satellite Systems (CDGNSSs) when satellite-based navigation systems are unavailable. In this paper, the image/INS integrated algorithm is modeled by a tightly-coupled iterative extended Kalman filter (IEKF). Tightly-coupled integration ensures that the integrated system is reliable, even if few known feature points (i.e., less than three) are observed in the images. A new global observability analysis of this tightly-coupled integration is presented to guarantee that the system is observable under the necessary conditions. The analysis conclusions were verified by simulations and field tests. The field tests also indicate that high-precision position (centimeter-level) and attitude (half-degree-level)-integrated solutions can be achieved in a global reference. PMID:25330046

The Availability of Space Service for Inter-Satellite Links in Navigation Constellations

PubMed Central

Tang, Yinyin; Wang, Yueke; Chen, Jianyun

2016-01-01

Global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) are widely used in low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite navigation; however, their availability is poor for users in medium Earth orbits (MEO), and high Earth orbits (HEO). With the increasing demand for navigation from MEO and HEO users, the inadequate coverage of GNSS has emerged. Inter-satellite links (ISLs) are used for ranging and communication between navigation satellites and can also serve space users that are outside the navigation constellation. This paper aims to summarize their application method and analyze their service performance. The mathematical model of visibility is proposed and then the availability of time division ISLs is analyzed based on global grid points. The BeiDou navigation constellation is used as an example for numerical simulation. Simulation results show that the availability can be enhanced by scheduling more satellites and larger beams, while the presence of more users lowers the availability. The availability of navigation signals will be strengthened when combined with the signals from the ISLs. ISLs can improve the space service volume (SSV) of navigation constellations, and are therefore a promising method for navigation in MEO/HEO spacecraft. PMID:27548181

Advancing Reflectrometry

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-05-21

13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT Reflectometry , a microwave remote sensing technique to extract geophysical data from scattered satellite...transmissions, was first demonstrated using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) reflections. Recently, reflectometry has been extended to digital...potential missions. a 15. SUBJECT TERMS Reflectometry , Ocean Winds, Global Navigation Satellites, Communication Satellites 16. SECURITY

Global Losses and Declining Vulnerability to Tropical Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narita, D.; Hsiang, S. M.

2011-12-01

Approach An extreme environmental event may generate different losses for different societies. If the physical exposure to an event is held fixed, then the magnitude of a society's loss defines its vulnerability to that event. Competing hypotheses suggest that social and economic developments could make vulnerability rise or fall over time, but previous studies have been unable to reject either hypothesis because they lacked accurate data on societies' physical exposure to extreme events. We address this problem for a specific type of event by reconstructing the exposure of 233 countries to every tropical cyclone (TC) on the planet between 1950 and 2008 in making use of the Limited Information Cyclone Reconstruction and Integration for Climate and Economics (LICRICE) model [Hsiang, 2010]. By filling a critical data gap, this reconstruction enables us to compare how revenue losses, damages, and deaths from physically similar events change over time. Our approach contrasts with a large literature, which relies almost exclusively on self-reporting data of TC damages compiled by the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT)[OFDA/CRED, 2009]. Results On a global scale, we find that populations rapidly mitigate certain TC risks, reducing their reported damages from a TC of low intensity by a remarkable 9.4% yr-1 and death rates by 5.1% yr-1 (Figure 1). However, these rapid reductions in vulnerability are not evident for the highest intensity TCs and lost agricultural revenues, which are more difficult to observe than deaths or damages, exhibit non-declining vulnerability for events of all intensities. Because the vulnerability of agriculture has remained high while vulnerability to damages has declined rapidly, our results indicate that lost agricultural revenues have dominated TC losses ever since ˜1990. References Hsiang, S. M. (2010). Temperatures and cyclones strongly associated with economic production in the Caribbean and Central America. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(35):15367-15372. OFDA/CRED (2009). The International Disaster Database.

Cyclone trends constrain monsoon variability during Late Oligocene sea level highstands (Kachchh Basin, NW India)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reuter, M.; Piller, W. E.; Harzhauser, M.; Kroh, A.

2013-01-01

Important concerns about the consequences of climate change for India are the potential impact on tropical cyclones and the monsoon. Herein we present a sequence of fossil shell beds from the shallow-marine Maniyara Fort Formation (Kachcch Basin) as an indicator of tropical cyclone activity along the NW Indian coast during the Late Oligocene warming period (~27-24 Ma). Direct proxies providing information about the atmospheric circulation dynamics over the Indian subcontinent at this time are important since it corresponds to a major climate reorganization in Asia that ends up with the establishment of the modern Asian monsoon system in the Early Miocene. The vast shell concentrations comprise a mixture of parautochthonous and allochthonous assemblages indicating storm-generated sediment transport from deep to shallow water during third-order sea level highstands. Three distinct skeletal assemblages were distinguished each recording a relative storm wave base depth. (1) A shallow storm wave base is shown by nearshore mollusks, corals and Clypeaster echinoids; (2) an intermediate storm wave base depth is indicated by lepidocyclind foraminifers, Eupatagus echinoids and corallinaceans; and (3) a deep storm wave base is represented by an Amussiopecten-Schizaster echinoid assemblage. Vertical changes in these skeletal associations give evidence of gradually increasing tropical cyclone intensity in line with third-order sea level rise. The intensity of cyclones over the Arabian Sea is primarily linked to the strength of the Indian monsoon. Therefore and since the topographic boundary conditions for the Indian monsoon already existed in the Late Oligocene, the longer-term cyclone trends were interpreted to reflect monsoon variability during the initiation of the Asian monsoon system. Our results imply an active monsoon over the Eastern Tethys at ~26 Ma followed by a period of monsoon weakening during the peak of the Late Oligocene global warming (~24 Ma).

Testing a Coupled Global-limited-area Data Assimilation System using Observations from the 2004 Pacific Typhoon Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holt, C. R.; Szunyogh, I.; Gyarmati, G.; Hoffman, R. N.; Leidner, M.

2011-12-01

Tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity forecasts have improved in recent years due to increased model resolution, improved data assimilation, and the rapid increase in the number of routinely assimilated observations over oceans. The data assimilation approach that has received the most attention in recent years is Ensemble Kalman Filtering (EnKF). The most attractive feature of the EnKF is that it uses a fully flow-dependent estimate of the error statistics, which can have important benefits for the analysis of rapidly developing TCs. We implement the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter algorithm, a vari- ation of the EnKF, on a reduced-resolution version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) model and the NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM) to build a coupled global-limited area anal- ysis/forecast system. This is the first time, to our knowledge, that such a system is used for the analysis and forecast of tropical cyclones. We use data from summer 2004 to study eight tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific. The benchmark data sets that we use to assess the performance of our system are the NCEP Reanalysis and the NCEP Operational GFS analyses from 2004. These benchmark analyses were both obtained by the Statistical Spectral Interpolation, which was the operational data assimilation system of NCEP in 2004. The GFS Operational analysis assimilated a large number of satellite radiance observations in addition to the observations assimilated in our system. All analyses are verified against the Joint Typhoon Warning Center Best Track data set. The errors are calculated for the position and intensity of the TCs. The global component of the ensemble-based system shows improvement in po- sition analysis over the NCEP Reanalysis, but shows no significant difference from the NCEP operational analysis for most of the storm tracks. The regional com- ponent of our system improves position analysis over all the global analyses. The intensity analyses, measured by the minimum sea level pressure, are of similar quality in all of the analyses. Regional deterministic forecasts started from our analyses are generally not significantly different from those started from the GFS operational analysis. On average, the regional experiments performed better for longer than 48 h sea level pressure forecasts, while the global forecast performed better in predicting the position for longer than 48 h.

Cloud evaluation using satellite simulators and cloud changes for global nonhydrostatic simulations with NICAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satoh, M.; Noda, A. T.; Kodama, C.; Yamada, Y.; Hashino, T.

2012-12-01

Global cloud distributions and properties simulated by the global nonhydrostatic model, NICAM (Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model), are evaluated and their future changes are discussed. First, we evaluated the simulated cloud properties produced by a case study of the 3.5km mesh experiment of NICAM using the satellite simulator package (the Joint-simulator) with cloud microphysics oriented approach (Hashino et al. 2012). Then, we analyzed future cloud changes using various sets of simulations under the present and the future global warming conditions. The results show that the zonal averaged ice water path (IWP) generally decreases or marginally unchanged in the tropics, while IWP in the extra-tropics increases. The upper cloud fraction increases both in the tropics and in the extra-tropics in general. We further analyzed contributions of cloud systems such as cloud clusters, tropical cyclones (TCs), and storm-tracks to these changes. Probability distribution of the larger cloud clusters decreases, while that of the smaller ones increases, consistent with the decrease in the number of tropical cyclones in the future climate. Average liquid water path (LWP) and IWP associated with each tropical cyclone are diagnosed, and it is found that both the associated LWP and IWP increase under the warmer condition. Even though, since the number of the intensive cloud systems decrease, the average IWP decreases. It should be remarked that the change in TC tracks largely contribute to the change in the horizontal distribution of clouds. The NICAM simulations also show that the storm-tracks shift poleward, and the storms become less frequent and stronger in the extra-tropics, similar to the results of other general circulation models. Both LWP and IWP associated with the storms also increase in the warmer climate in the NICAM simulations. This results in increase in the upper clouds under the warmer climate condition, as described by Miura et al. (2005). References: Hashino, T., Satoh, M., Hagihara, Y., Kubota, T., Matsui, T., Nasuno, T., and Okamoto, H. (2012), Evaluating Global Cloud Distribution and Microphysics from the NICAM against CloudSat and CALIPSO, J. Geophys. Res., submitted. Miura, H., Tomita,H., Nasuno,T., Iga, S., Satoh,M., and Matsuno, T. (2005), A climate sensitivity test using a global cloud resolving model under an aqua planet condition, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L19717, doi:10.1029/2005GL023672.

Space shuttle navigation analysis. Volume 1: GPS aided navigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matchett, G. A.; Vogel, M. A.; Macdonald, T. J.

1980-01-01

Analytical studies related to space shuttle navigation are presented. Studies related to the addition of NAVSTAR Global Positioning System user equipment to the shuttle avionics suite are presented. The GPS studies center about navigation accuracy covariance analyses for both developmental and operational phases of GPS, as well as for various orbiter mission phases.

The Properties of Convective Clouds Over the Western Pacific and Their Relationship to the Environment of Tropical Cyclones

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-30

assimilating satellite, radar and in-situ observations for improved numerical simulations of major Typhoons (Jiangmi, Sinlaku, Nuri and Hagupit) during T- PARC ...oceans from radar , aircraft and satellite data; 2) Derive an accurate mesoscale environment of convective systems through the assimilation of satellite... radar , lidar and in-situ data; 3) Evaluate the quality of the global forecast system (e.g., Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System or

Tropical Cyclone Information System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, P. Peggy; Knosp, Brian W.; Vu, Quoc A.; Yi, Chao; Hristova-Veleva, Svetla M.

2009-01-01

The JPL Tropical Cyclone Infor ma tion System (TCIS) is a Web portal (http://tropicalcyclone.jpl.nasa.gov) that provides researchers with an extensive set of observed hurricane parameters together with large-scale and convection resolving model outputs. It provides a comprehensive set of high-resolution satellite (see figure), airborne, and in-situ observations in both image and data formats. Large-scale datasets depict the surrounding environmental parameters such as SST (Sea Surface Temperature) and aerosol loading. Model outputs and analysis tools are provided to evaluate model performance and compare observations from different platforms. The system pertains to the thermodynamic and microphysical structure of the storm, the air-sea interaction processes, and the larger-scale environment as depicted by ocean heat content and the aerosol loading of the environment. Currently, the TCIS is populated with satellite observations of all tropical cyclones observed globally during 2005. There is a plan to extend the database both forward in time till present as well as backward to 1998. The portal is powered by a MySQL database and an Apache/Tomcat Web server on a Linux system. The interactive graphic user interface is provided by Google Map.

Autonomous Navigation Above the GNSS Constellations and Beyond: GPS Navigation for the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission and SEXTANT Pulsar Navigation Demonstration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winternitz, Luke

2017-01-01

This talk will describe two first-of-their-kind technology demonstrations attached to ongoing NASA science missions, both of which aim to extend the range of autonomous spacecraft navigation far from the Earth. First, we will describe the onboard GPS navigation system for the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission which is currently operating in elliptic orbits reaching nearly halfway to the Moon. The MMS navigation system is a key outgrowth of a larger effort at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center to advance high-altitude Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) navigation on multiple fronts, including developing Global Positioning System receivers and onboard navigation software, running simulation studies, and leading efforts to characterize and protect signals at high-altitude in the so-called GNSS Space-Service Volume (SSV). In the second part of the talk, we will describe the Station Explorer for X-ray Timing and Navigation Technology (SEXTANT) mission that aims to make the first in-space demonstration of X-ray pulsar navigation (XNAV). SEXTANT is attached to the NASA astrophysics mission Neutron-star Interior Composition ExploreR (NICER) whose International Space Station mounted X-ray telescope is investigating the fundamental physics of extremes in gravity, material density, and electromagnetic fields found in neutron stars, and whose instrument provides a nearly ideal navigation sensor for XNAV.

The NASA Earth Science Flight Program: an update

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neeck, Steven P.

2015-10-01

Earth's changing environment impacts every aspect of life on our planet and climate change has profound implications on society. Studying Earth as a single complex system is essential to understanding the causes and consequences of climate change and other global environmental concerns. NASA's Earth Science Division (ESD) shapes an interdisciplinary view of Earth, exploring interactions among the atmosphere, oceans, ice sheets, land surface interior, and life itself. This enables scientists to measure global and climate changes and to inform decisions by government, other organizations, and people in the United States and around the world. The data collected and results generated are accessible to other agencies and organizations to improve the products and services they provide, including air quality indices, disaster prediction and response, agricultural yield projections, and aviation safety. ESD's Flight Program provides the space based observing systems and infrastructure for mission operations and scientific data processing and distribution that support NASA's Earth science research and modeling activities. The Flight Program currently has 21 operating Earth observing space missions, including the recently launched Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, and the International Space Station (ISS) RapidSCAT and Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS) instruments. The ESD has 22 more missions and instruments planned for launch over the next decade. These include first and second tier missions from the 2007 Earth Science Decadal Survey, Climate Continuity missions and selected instruments to assure availability of key climate data sets, operational missions to ensure sustained land imaging provided by the Landsat system, and small-sized competitively selected orbital missions and instrument missions of opportunity belonging to the Earth Venture (EV) Program. Some examples are the NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR), Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT), ICESat-2, SAGE III on ISS, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow On (GRACE FO), Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO), Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS), ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS), and Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) Lidar missions. An overview of plans and current status will be presented.

An alternative ionospheric correction model for global navigation satellite systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoque, M. M.; Jakowski, N.

2015-04-01

The ionosphere is recognized as a major error source for single-frequency operations of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). To enhance single-frequency operations the global positioning system (GPS) uses an ionospheric correction algorithm (ICA) driven by 8 coefficients broadcasted in the navigation message every 24 h. Similarly, the global navigation satellite system Galileo uses the electron density NeQuick model for ionospheric correction. The Galileo satellite vehicles (SVs) transmit 3 ionospheric correction coefficients as driver parameters of the NeQuick model. In the present work, we propose an alternative ionospheric correction algorithm called Neustrelitz TEC broadcast model NTCM-BC that is also applicable for global satellite navigation systems. Like the GPS ICA or Galileo NeQuick, the NTCM-BC can be optimized on a daily basis by utilizing GNSS data obtained at the previous day at monitor stations. To drive the NTCM-BC, 9 ionospheric correction coefficients need to be uploaded to the SVs for broadcasting in the navigation message. Our investigation using GPS data of about 200 worldwide ground stations shows that the 24-h-ahead prediction performance of the NTCM-BC is better than the GPS ICA and comparable to the Galileo NeQuick model. We have found that the 95 percentiles of the prediction error are about 16.1, 16.1 and 13.4 TECU for the GPS ICA, Galileo NeQuick and NTCM-BC, respectively, during a selected quiet ionospheric period, whereas the corresponding numbers are found about 40.5, 28.2 and 26.5 TECU during a selected geomagnetic perturbed period. However, in terms of complexity the NTCM-BC is easier to handle than the Galileo NeQuick and in this respect comparable to the GPS ICA.

Studies of climate dynamics with innovative global-model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Xiaoming

Climate simulations with different degrees of idealization are essential for the development of our understanding of the climate system. Studies in this dissertation employ carefully designed global-model simulations for the goal of gaining theoretical and conceptual insights into some problems of climate dynamics. Firstly, global warming-induced changes in extreme precipitation are investigated using a global climate model with idealized geography. The precipitation changes over an idealized north-south mid-latitude mountain barrier at the western margin of an otherwise flat continent are studied. The intensity of the 40 most intense events on the western slopes increases by about ~4°C of surface warming. In contrast, the intensity of the top 40 events on the eastern mountain slopes increases at about ~6°C. This higher sensitivity is due to enhanced ascent during the eastern-slope events, which can be explained in terms of linear mountain-wave theory relating to global warming-induced changes in the upper-tropospheric static stability and the tropopause level. Dominated by different dynamical factors, changes in the intensity of extreme precipitation events over plains and oceans might differ from changes over mountains. So the response of extreme precipitation over mountains and flat areas are further compared using larger data sets of simulated extreme events over the two types of surfaces. It is found that the sensitivity of extreme precipitation to increases in global mean surface temperature is 3% per °C lower over mountains than over the oceans or the plains. The difference in sensitivity among these regions is not due to thermodynamic effects, but rather to differences between the gravity-wave dynamics governing vertical velocities over the mountains and the cyclone dynamics governing vertical motions over the oceans and plains. The strengthening of latent heating in the storms over oceans and plains leads to stronger ascent in the warming climate. Motivated by the fact that natural variability of the atmosphere could obscure the signal of anthropogenic warming on time scales of years to decades, the large scale variability of the atmosphere is also studied. Analysis using simulations in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble project reveals that the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) does not have a stable spatial pattern when 50-year long segments of data are used to calculate it. Some segments of data result in NAM-like variability with a very strong North Pacific center of action, while in some others it exhibits a more symmetric structure, with North Pacific and Euro-Atlantic centers of comparable strength. Perhaps somewhat puzzling, the NAM's North Pacific center of action is found to have a strengthening trend under anthropogenic warming. Lastly, the large-scale character of an atmosphere in rotating Radiative-Convective Equilibrium (RCE) is studied, using a global atmospheric model with prescribed globally uniform sea surface temperature and no insolation. In such an equilibrium state, numerous tropical cyclone-like vortices develop in the extratropics, which move slowly poleward and westward. The typical spacing of simulated tropical cyclone-like vortices is comparable to the Rossby radius of deformation, while the production of available potential energy is at a scale slightly smaller than that of the vortices. It is hypothesized that the growth of tropical cyclone-like vortices is driven by the self-aggregation of convection, while baroclinic instability destabilizes any vortices that grow significantly larger than the deformation radius. A weak Hadley circulation dominates in the deep tropics, and an eastward-propagating wavenumber one MJO-like mode with a period of 30 to 40 days develops along the equator.

Proceedings of the Sixth Integrated Communications, Navigation and Surveillance (ICNS) Conference & Workshop 2006

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ponchak, Denise (Compiler)

2006-01-01

The Integrated Communications, Navigation and Surveillance (ICNS) Technologies Conference and Workshop provides a forum for government, industry, and academic communities performing research and technology development for advanced digital communications, navigation, and surveillance security systems and associated applications supporting the national and global air transportation systems. The event s goals are to understand current efforts and recent results in near- and far-term research and technology demonstration; identify integrated digital communications, navigation and surveillance research requirements necessary for a safe, high-capacity, advanced air transportation system; foster collaboration and coordination among all stakeholders; and discuss critical issues and develop recommendations to achieve the future integrated CNS vision for the national and global air transportation system.

Proceedings of the Fourth Integrated Communications, Navigation, and Surveillance (ICNS) Conference and Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fujikawa, Gene (Compiler)

2004-01-01

The Integrated Communications, Navigational and Surveillance (ICNS) Technologies Conference and Workshop provides a forum for Government, industry, and academic communities performing research and technology development for advanced digital communications, navigation, and surveillance security systems and associated applications supporting the national and global air transportation systems. The event's goals are to understand current efforts and recent results in near-and far-term research and technology demonstration; identify integrated digital communications, navigation and surveillance research requirements necessary for a safe, high-capacity, advanced air transportation system; foster collaboration and coordination among all stakeholders; and discuss critical issues and develop recommendations to achieve the future integrated CNS vision for the national and global air transportation system.

The Relationship Between Extratropical Cyclone Steering and Blocking Along the North American East Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, James F.; Dunn-Sigouin, Etienne; Pfahl, Stephan

2017-12-01

The path and speed of extratropical cyclones along the east coast of North America influence their societal impact. This work characterizes the climatological relationship between cyclone track path and speed, and blocking and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). An analysis of Lagrangian cyclone track propagation speed and angle shows that the percentage of cyclones with blocks is larger for cyclones that propagate northward or southeastward, as is the size of the blocked region near the cyclone. Cyclone-centered composites show that propagation of cyclones relative to blocks is consistent with steering by the block: northward tracks more often have a block east/northeast of the cyclone; slow tracks tend to have blocks due north of the cyclone. Comparison with the NAO shows that to first-order blocking and the NAO steer cyclones in a similar manner. However, blocked cyclones are more likely to propagate northward, increasing the likelihood of cyclone related impacts.

On the Relationship Between the Length of Season and Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2013

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2014-01-01

Officially, the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season runs from June 1 through November 30 of each year. During this 183-day interval, the vast majority of tropical cyclone onsets are found to occur. For example, in a study of the 715 tropical cyclones that occurred in the North Atlantic basin during the interval 1945-2010, it was found that about 97 percent of them had their onsets during the conventional hurricane season, with the bulk (78 percent) having had onset during the late summer-early fall months of August, September, and October and with none having had onset in the month of March. For the 2014 hurricane season, it already has had the onset of its first named storm on July 1 (day of year (DOY) 182), Arthur, which formed off the east coast of Florida, rapidly growing into a category-2 hurricane with peak 1-minute sustained wind speed of about 90 kt and striking the coast of North Carolina as a category-2 hurricane on July 3. Arthur is the first hurricane larger than category-1 to strike the United States (U.S.) since the year 2008 when Ike struck Texas as a category-2 hurricane and there has not been a major hurricane (category-3 or larger) to strike the U.S. since Wilma struck Florida as a category-3 hurricane in 2005. Only two category-1 hurricanes struck the U.S. in the year 2012 (Isaac and Sandy, striking Louisiana and New York, respectively) and there were no U.S. land-falling hurricanes in 2013 (also true for the years 1962, 1973, 1978, 1981, 1982, 1990, 1994, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2009, and 2010). In recent years it has been argued that the length of season (LOS), determined as the inclusive elapsed time between the first storm day (FSD) and the last storm day (LSD) of the yearly hurricane season (i.e., when peak 1-minute sustained wind speed of at least 34 kt occurred and the tropical cyclone was not classified as 'extratropical'), has increased in length with the lengthening believed to be due to the FSD occurring sooner and the LSD occurring later and with both being related to global warming. In this study, the relationship between the LOS and tropical cyclone activity and climate is examined for the weather satellite era, 1960-2013. Estimates are also given for the LOS and LSD, as well as for the expected number of tropical cyclones (NTC), the total number of storm days (NSD), the total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), and the net tropical cyclone activity (NTCA) index for the 2014 hurricane season.

The Properties of Convective Clouds Over the Western Pacific and Their Relationship to the Environment of Tropical Cyclones

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-30

from radar , aircraft and satellite data; 2) Derive an accurate mesoscale environment of convective systems through the assimilation of satellite... radar , lidar and in-situ data; 3) Evaluate the quality of the global forecast system (e.g., Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System or...ABSTRACT unclassified c. THIS PAGE unclassified Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 satellite, radar , lidar and in-situ data

Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Data Assimilation

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

the global system. The improvement is almost uniform in the extratropics , while in the tropics clear improvements tend to occur in the immediate...surrounding of storms . The latter result suggests that the limited area analysis provides a better representation of the interactions between the...circulation of the storm and the wind field in its immediate vicinity. 2

Tropical cyclones in a year of rising global temperatures and a strengthening El Niño

PubMed Central

Shultz, James M; Shepherd, J Marshall; Bagrodia, Rohini; Espinel, Zelde

2014-01-01

The year 2015 is notable for the coincidence of several strong climate indicators that having bearing on the occurrence and intensity of tropical cyclones worldwide. This year, 2015, is clearly on track to become the warmest on record in terms of global temperatures. During the latter half of 2015, a very strong El Niño has formed and is predicted to build impressively, perhaps rivaling the memorable El Niño of 1997/1998. Warm Pacific Ocean temperatures, coupled with a strengthening El Niño, have supported the proliferation of Western North Pacific basin typhoons and Eastern/Central North Pacific Hurricanes. Most notable among these, Hurricane Patricia formed on October 20, 2015 and experienced extremely rapid intensification to become the strongest hurricane in the history of the Western Hemisphere and then weakened just as abruptly before dissipating on October 24, 2015. Rather than an aberration, these climate patterns of 2015 represent an ongoing trend with implications for the disaster health of coastal populations worldwide. PMID:28229010

A case study on the cyclone activity around Europe from winter to spring of 2000 (From the view of comparison with that in East Asia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuwana, Yusuke; Otani, Kazuo; Matsumoto, Kengo; Kato, Kuranoshin

2017-04-01

The extratropical cyclone is one of the basic systems that characterize the weather and climate in mid-latitude area, where the mean meridional temperature gradient is large. However, this activity is deeply influenced by the seasonal transition and regional differences of the mean atmospheric fields. Diversity of cyclone's characteristics such as baroclinic instability wave, polar lows and slow-moving cold vortexes is also seen within the mid-latitude area. For example, the seasonal transition of the large-scale fields is rather widely different in European region from that in East Asia where the influence Asian monsoon is very great. It is also noted that the cyclones developed in the other region might effect greatly the weather in Europe. On the other hand, detailed knowledge of the daily cyclone activity would help to understand deeply the differences of regional climatology among various areas including seasonal transition and geographical characteristics. After such interest, Takigawa and Kato(EGU 2015) made a preliminary study on the cyclone activity in Europe . We used the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data for 2000 and pointed out that not only the daily systems but also the intraseasonal-scale systems were also dominant in winter and summer. Thus the present study will examining the case for 2000 with special attention to the features from winter to spring. In winter, submonthly-scale intraseasonal variation of the Icelandic Low was change. In the stage when Icelandic Low with such intraseasonal-scale approached northwestern Europe, several lows passed eastward around with a few days interval the southern edge of Icelandic low with relatively strong baraclinicity. It is remarked that their center pressure was rather low (below 980hPa). After April, when the seasonal mean Icelandic low had disappeared, different types of the intra-seasonal-scale cyclones and anticyclones were dominantly observed. In the lower SLP stage of the intraseasonal variation in Europe, the low pressure centered the southern-east of England in the middle of April has the equivalent barotropic structure and persisted for about ten days on the daily maps. On the other hands, high pressure area extending from England to northern coast of Germany also persisted for about half month. The southern half of that higharea was also of equivalent barotropic structure with warmer air there. In the poster presentation at EGU2017, we will also compare the cyclone activity in East Asia where the weather and climate system are greatly affected by the global-scale Asia monsoon, and so on.

Analyzing the impact of severe tropical cyclone Yasi on public health infrastructure and the management of noncommunicable diseases.

PubMed

Ryan, Benjamin J; Franklin, Richard C; Burkle, Frederick M; Watt, Kerrianne; Aitken, Peter; Smith, Erin C; Leggat, Peter

2015-02-01

Traditionally, post disaster response activities have focused on immediate trauma and communicable diseases. In developed countries such as Australia, the post disaster risk for communicable disease is low. However, a "disease transition" is now recognized at the population level where noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are increasingly documented as a post disaster issue. This potentially places an extra burden on health care resources and may have implications for disaster-management systems. With increasing likelihood of major disasters for all sectors of global society, there is a need to ensure that health systems, including public health infrastructure (PHI), can respond properly. Problem There is limited peer-reviewed literature on the impact of disasters on NCDs. Research is required to better determine both the impact of NCDs post disaster and their impact on PHI and disaster-management systems. A literature review was used to collect and analyze data on the impact of the index case event, Australia's Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (STC Yasi), on PHI and the management of NCDs. The findings were compared with data from other world cyclone events. The databases searched were MEDLINE, CINAHL, Google Scholar, and Google. The date range for the STC Yasi search was January 26, 2011 through May 2, 2013. No time limits were applied to the search from other cyclone events. The variables compared were tropical cyclones and their impacts on PHI and NCDs. The outcome of interest was to identify if there were trends across similar world events and to determine if this could be extrapolated for future crises. This research showed a tropical cyclone (including a hurricane and typhoon) can impact PHI, for instance, equipment (oxygen, syringes, and medications), services (treatment and care), and clean water availability/access that would impact both the treatment and management of NCDs. The comparison between STC Yasi and worldwide tropical cyclones found the challenges faced were linked closely. These relate to communication, equipment and services, evacuation, medication, planning, and water supplies. This research demonstrated that a negative trend pattern existed between the impact of STC Yasi and other similar world cyclone events on PHI and the management of NCDs. This research provides an insight for disaster planners to address concerns of people with NCDs. While further research is needed, this study provides an understanding of areas for improvement, specifically enhancing protective PHI and the development of strategies for maintaining treatment and alternative care options, such as maintaining safe water for dialysis patients.

GPS/GLONASS Time Transfer with 20-Channel Dual GNSS Receiver

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daly, P.; Riley, S.

1996-01-01

One of the world's two global navigation systems, the Global Positioning System (GPS), is already fully operational (April 1994) and the other, the Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS) will become operational by the end of 1995 or early 1996. Each will offer, independently of the other, precise location and time transfer continuously anywhere in the world and indeed in space itself. Many potential users, in particular the civil aviation community, are keenly interested in a joint GPS/GLONASS operation since it would offer substantial advantages in defining and maintaining the integrity of the navigation aid. Results are presented on the characterization of GPS/GLONASS time comparison using a 20-channel dual receiver developed and constructed at the University of Leeds, UK.

76 FR 50808 - Airborne Supplemental Navigation Equipment Using the Global Positioning System (GPS)

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-16

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration Airborne Supplemental Navigation.... ACTION: Notice of intent to cancel Technical Standard Order (TSO)- C129a, Airborne Supplemental... notice announces the FAA's intent to cancel TSO-C129a, Airborne Supplemental Navigation Equipment Using...

Tropical Cyclones Feed More Heavy Rain in a Warmer Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K.-M.; Zhou, Y. P.; Wu, H.-T.

2007-01-01

The possible linkage of tropical cyclones (TC) to global warming is a hotly debated scientific topic, with immense societal impacts. Most of the debate has been focused on the issue of uncertainty in the use of non-research quality data for long-term trend analyses, especially with regard to TC intensity provided by TC forecasting centers. On the other hand, it is well known that TCs are associated with heavy rain during the processes of genesis and intensification, and that there are growing evidences that rainfall characteristics (not total rainfall) are most likely to be affected by global warming. Yet, satellite rainfall data have not been exploited in any recent studies of linkage between tropical cyclones (TC) and global warming. This is mostly due to the large uncertainties associated with detection of long-term trend in satellite rainfall estimates over the ocean. This problem, as we demonstrate in this paper, can be alleviated by examining rainfall distribution, rather than rainfall total. This paper is the first to use research-quality, satellite-derived rainfall from TRMM and GPCP over the tropical oceans to estimate shift in rainfall distribution during the TC season, and its relationships with TCs, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the two major ocean basins, the northern Atlantic and the northern Pacific for 1979-2005. From the rainfall distribution, we derive the TC contributions to rainfall in various extreme rainfall categories as a function to time. Our results show a definitive trend indicating that TCs are contributing increasingly to heavier rain events, i.e., intense TC's are more frequent in the last 27 years. The TC contribution to top 5% heavy rain has nearly doubled in the last two decades in the North Atlantic, and has increased by about 10% in the North Pacific. The different rate of increase in TC contribution to heavy rain may be related to the different rates of different rate of expansion of the warm pool (SST >2S0 C) area in the two oceans.

The spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of North Atlantic cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dacre, H.; Gray, S.

2009-09-01

Mid-latitude cyclones play a large role in determining the day-to-day weather conditions in western Europe through their associated wind and precipitation patterns. Thus, their typical spatial and evolution characteristics are of great interest to meteorologists, insurance and risk management companies. In this study a feature tracking algorithm is applied to a cyclone database produced using the Hewson-method of cyclone identification, based on low-level gradients of wet-bulb potential temperature, to produce a climatology of mid-latitude cyclones. The aim of this work is to compare the cyclone track and density statistics found in this study with previous climatologies and to determine reasons for any differences. This method is found to compare well with other cyclone identification methods; the north Atlantic storm track is reproduced along with the major regions of genesis. Differences are attributed to cyclone lifetime and strength thresholds, dataset resolution and cyclone identification and tracking methods. Previous work on cyclone development has been largely limited to case studies as opposed to analysis of climatological data, and does not distinguish between the different stages of cyclone evolution. The cyclone database used in this study allows cyclone characteristics to be tracked throughout the cyclone lifecycle. This enables the evaluation of the characteristics of cyclone evolution for systems forming in different genesis regions and a calculation of the spatial distribution and evolution of these characteristics in composite cyclones. It was found that most of the cyclones that cross western Europe originate in the east Atlantic where the baroclinicity and sea surface temperature gradients are weak compared to the west Atlantic. East Atlantic cyclones also have higher low-level relative vorticity and lower mean sea level pressure at their genesis point than west Atlantic cyclones. This is consistent with the hypothesis that they are secondary cyclones developing on the trailing fronts of pre-existing 'parent' cyclones. Furthermore, it was found that a higher proportion of east Atlantic cyclones are type C cyclones with strong upper-level forcing but weak low-level forcing suggesting that latent energy plays a more important role in their intensification than for west Atlantic cyclones.

The spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of North Atlantic cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dacre, H.; Gray, S.

2009-04-01

Mid-latitude cyclones play a large role in determining the day-to-day weather conditions in western Europe through their associated wind and precipitation patterns. Thus, their typical spatial and evolution characteristics are of great interest to meteorologists, insurance and risk management companies. In this study a feature tracking algorithm is applied to a cyclone database produced using the Hewson-method of cyclone identification, based on low-level gradients of wet-bulb potential temperature, to produce a climatology of mid-latitude cyclones. The aim of this work is to compare the cyclone track and density statistics found in this study with previous climatologies. This method is found to compare well with other cyclone identification methods; the north Atlantic storm track is reproduced along with the major regions of genesis. Differences are attributed to cyclone lifetime and strength thresholds, dataset resolution and cyclone identification and tracking methods. Previous work on cyclone development has been largely limited to case studies as opposed to analysis of climatological data, and does not distinguish between the different stages of cyclone evolution. The cyclone database used in this study allows cyclone characteristics to be tracked throughout the cyclone lifecycle. This enables the evaluation of the characteristics of cyclone evolution for systems forming in different genesis regions and a calculation of the spatial distribution and evolution of these characteristics in composite cyclones. It was found that most of the cyclones that cross western Europe originate in the east Atlantic where the baroclinicity and sea surface temperature gradients are weak compared to the west Atlantic. East Atlantic cyclones also have higher low-level relative vorticity and lower mean sea level pressure at their genesis point than west Atlantic cyclones. This is consistent with the hypothesis that they are secondary cyclones developing on the trailing fronts of pre-existing 'parent' cyclones. Furthermore, it was found that a higher proportion of east Atlantic cyclones are type C cyclones with strong upper-level forcing but weak low-level forcing suggesting that latent energy plays a more important role in their intensification than for west Atlantic cyclones.

Scaling future tropical cyclone damage with global mean temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geiger, T.; Bresch, D.; Frieler, K.

2017-12-01

Tropical cyclones (TC) are one of the most damaging natural hazards and severely affectmany countries around the globe each year. Their nominal impact is projected to increasesubstantially as the exposed coastal population grows, per capita income increases, andanthropogenic climate change manifests. The magnitude of this increase, however, variesacross regions and is obscured by the stochastic behaviour of TCs, so far impeding arigorous quantification of trends in TC damage with global mean temperature (GMT) rise. Here, we build on the large sample of spatially explicit TCs simulations generated withinISIMIP(2b) for 1) pre-industrial conditions, 2) the historical period, and 3) future projectionsunder RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 to estimate future TC damage assuming fixed present-daysocio-economic conditions or SSP-based future projections of population patterns andincome. Damage estimates will be based on region-specific empirical damage modelsderived from reported damages and accounting for regional characteristics of vulnerability.Different combinations of 1) socio-economic drivers with pre-industrial climate or 2) changingclimate with fixed socio-economic conditions will be used to derive functional relationshipsbetween regionally aggregated changes in damages on one hand and global meantemperature and socio-economic predictors on the other hand. The obtained region-specific scaling of future TC damage with GMT provides valuable inputfor IPCC's special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C by quantifying theincremental changes in impact with global warming. The approach allows for an update ofdamage functions used in integrated assessment models, and contributes to assessing theadequateness of climate mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Scaling a Convection-Resolving RCM to Near-Global Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leutwyler, D.; Fuhrer, O.; Chadha, T.; Kwasniewski, G.; Hoefler, T.; Lapillonne, X.; Lüthi, D.; Osuna, C.; Schar, C.; Schulthess, T. C.; Vogt, H.

2017-12-01

In the recent years, first decade-long kilometer-scale resolution RCM simulations have been performed on continental-scale computational domains. However, the size of the planet Earth is still an order of magnitude larger and thus the computational implications of performing global climate simulations at this resolution are challenging. We explore the gap between the currently established RCM simulations and global simulations by scaling the GPU accelerated version of the COSMO model to a near-global computational domain. To this end, the evolution of an idealized moist baroclinic wave has been simulated over the course of 10 days with a grid spacing of up to 930 m. The computational mesh employs 36'000 x 16'001 x 60 grid points and covers 98.4% of the planet's surface. The code shows perfect weak scaling up to 4'888 Nodes of the Piz Daint supercomputer and yields 0.043 simulated years per day (SYPD) which is approximately one seventh of the 0.2-0.3 SYPD required to conduct AMIP-type simulations. However, at half the resolution (1.9 km) we've observed 0.23 SYPD. Besides formation of frontal precipitating systems containing embedded explicitly-resolved convective motions, the simulations reveal a secondary instability that leads to cut-off warm-core cyclonic vortices in the cyclone's core, once the grid spacing is refined to the kilometer scale. The explicit representation of embedded moist convection and the representation of the previously unresolved instabilities exhibit a physically different behavior in comparison to coarser-resolution simulations. The study demonstrates that global climate simulations using kilometer-scale resolution are imminent and serves as a baseline benchmark for global climate model applications and future exascale supercomputing systems.

Tropical Cyclones as a Driver of Global Sediment Flux

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leyland, J.; Darby, S. E.; Cohen, S.

2017-12-01

The world's rivers deliver 19 billion tonnes of sediment to the coastal zone annually. The sediment supplied to the coastal zone is of significant importance for a variety of reasons, for example in acting as a vector for nutrients as well as in supplying sediment to coastal landforms such as deltas and beaches that can buffer those landforms from erosion and flooding. A greater understanding of the factors governing sediment flux to the oceans is therefore a key research gap. The non-linear relationship between river discharge and sediment flux implies that the global sediment flux may be disproportionately driven by large floods. Indeed, in our recent empirical research we have demonstrated that changes in the track locations, frequency and intensity of tropical storms in recent decades exert a significant control on the sediment flux emanating from the Mekong River. Since other large rivers potentially affected by tropical storms are known to make a significant contribution to the global sediment flux, this raises the question of the extent to which such storms play a significant role in controlling sediment loads at the global scale. In this paper we address that question by employing a global hydrological model (WBMsed) in order to predict runoff and sediment load forced by recent historical climate scenarios `with' and `without' tropical cyclones. We compare the two scenarios to (i) make the first estimate of the global contribution of sediment load forced by tropical storms; (ii) evaluate how that contribution has varied in recent decades and to (iii) explore variations in tropical-storm driven sediment loads in selected major river basins that are significantly affected by such storms.

Impact of tropical cyclones on modeled extreme wind-wave climate

DOE PAGES

Timmermans, Ben; Stone, Daithi; Wehner, Michael; ...

2017-02-16

Here, the effect of forcing wind resolution on the extremes of global wind-wave climate are investigated in numerical simulations. Forcing winds from the Community Atmosphere Model at horizontal resolutions of ~1.0° and ~0.25° are used to drive Wavewatch III. Differences in extreme wave height are found to manifest most strongly in tropical cyclone (TC) regions, emphasizing the need for high-resolution forcing in those areas. Comparison with observations typically show improvement in performance with increased forcing resolution, with a strong influence in the tail of the distribution, although simulated extremes can exceed observations. A simulation for the end of the 21stmore » century under a RCP 8.5 type emission scenario suggests further increases in extreme wave height in TC regions.« less

Impact of tropical cyclones on modeled extreme wind-wave climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timmermans, Ben; Stone, Dáithí; Wehner, Michael; Krishnan, Harinarayan

2017-02-01

The effect of forcing wind resolution on the extremes of global wind-wave climate are investigated in numerical simulations. Forcing winds from the Community Atmosphere Model at horizontal resolutions of ˜1.0° and ˜0.25° are used to drive Wavewatch III. Differences in extreme wave height are found to manifest most strongly in tropical cyclone (TC) regions, emphasizing the need for high-resolution forcing in those areas. Comparison with observations typically show improvement in performance with increased forcing resolution, with a strong influence in the tail of the distribution, although simulated extremes can exceed observations. A simulation for the end of the 21st century under a RCP 8.5 type emission scenario suggests further increases in extreme wave height in TC regions.

Cloud encounter statistics in the 28.5-43.5 KFT altitude region from four years of GASP observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jasperson, W. H.; Nastrom, G. D.; Davis, R. E.; Holdeman, J. D.

1983-01-01

The results of an analysis of cloud encounter measurements taken at aircraft flight altitudes as part of the Global Atmospheric Sampling Program are summarized. The results can be used in estimating the probability of cloud encounter and in assessing the economic feasibility of laminar flow control aircraft along particular routes. The data presented clearly show the tropical circulation and its seasonal migration; characteristics of the mid-latitude regime, such as the large-scale traveling cyclones in the winter and increased convective activity in the summer, can be isolated in the data. The cloud encounter statistics are shown to be consistent with the mid-latitude cyclone model. A model for TIC (time-in-clouds), a cloud encounter statistic, is presented for several common airline routes.

"Rapid Revisit" Measurements of Sea Surface Winds Using CYGNSS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J.; Johnson, J. T.

2017-12-01

The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) is a space-borne GNSS-R (GNSS-Reflectometry) mission that launched December 15, 2016 for ocean surface wind speed measurements. CYGNSS includes 8 small satellites in the same LEO orbit, so that the mission provides wind speed products having unprecedented coverage both in time and space to study multi-temporal behaviors of oceanic winds. The nature of CYGNSS coverage results in some locations on Earth experiencing multiple wind speed measurements within a short period of time (a "clump" of observations in time resulting in a "rapid revisit" series of measurements). Such observations could seemingly provide indications of regions experiencing rapid changes in wind speeds, and therefore be of scientific utility. Temporally "clumped" properties of CYGNSS measurements are investigated using early CYGNSS L1/L2 measurements, and the results show that clump durations and spacing vary with latitude. For example, the duration of a clump can extend as long as a few hours at higher latitudes, with gaps between clumps ranging from 6 to as high as 12 hours depending on latitude. Examples are provided to indicate the potential of changes within a clump to produce a "rapid revisit" product for detecting convective activity. Also, we investigate detector design for identifying convective activities. Results from analyses using recent CYGNSS L2 winds will be provided in the presentation.

GPS dependencies in the transportation sector : an inventory of Global Positioning System dependencies in the transportation sector, best practices for improved robustness of GPS devices, and potential alternative solutions for positioning, navigation and

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-08-01

The John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe Center) was asked by the NOAA Office of Space Commercialization to analyze dependencies on Global Positioning System (GPS) positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) services within the U...

A New Time Measurement Method Using a High-End Global Navigation Satellite System to Analyze Alpine Skiing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Supej, Matej; Holmberg, Hans-Christer

2011-01-01

Accurate time measurement is essential to temporal analysis in sport. This study aimed to (a) develop a new method for time computation from surveyed trajectories using a high-end global navigation satellite system (GNSS), (b) validate its precision by comparing GNSS with photocells, and (c) examine whether gate-to-gate times can provide more…

Cyclone: java-based querying and computing with Pathway/Genome databases.

PubMed

Le Fèvre, François; Smidtas, Serge; Schächter, Vincent

2007-05-15

Cyclone aims at facilitating the use of BioCyc, a collection of Pathway/Genome Databases (PGDBs). Cyclone provides a fully extensible Java Object API to analyze and visualize these data. Cyclone can read and write PGDBs, and can write its own data in the CycloneML format. This format is automatically generated from the BioCyc ontology by Cyclone itself, ensuring continued compatibility. Cyclone objects can also be stored in a relational database CycloneDB. Queries can be written in SQL, and in an intuitive and concise object-oriented query language, Hibernate Query Language (HQL). In addition, Cyclone interfaces easily with Java software including the Eclipse IDE for HQL edition, the Jung API for graph algorithms or Cytoscape for graph visualization. Cyclone is freely available under an open source license at: http://sourceforge.net/projects/nemo-cyclone. For download and installation instructions, tutorials, use cases and examples, see http://nemo-cyclone.sourceforge.net.

Can we trust climate models to realistically represent severe European windstorms?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trzeciak, Tomasz M.; Knippertz, Peter; Pirret, Jennifer S. R.; Williams, Keith D.

2016-06-01

Cyclonic windstorms are one of the most important natural hazards for Europe, but robust climate projections of the position and the strength of the North Atlantic storm track are not yet possible, bearing significant risks to European societies and the (re)insurance industry. Previous studies addressing the problem of climate model uncertainty through statistical comparisons of simulations of the current climate with (re-)analysis data show large disagreement between different climate models, different ensemble members of the same model and observed climatologies of intense cyclones. One weakness of such evaluations lies in the difficulty to separate influences of the climate model's basic state from the influence of fast processes on the development of the most intense storms, which could create compensating effects and therefore suggest higher reliability than there really is. This work aims to shed new light into this problem through a cost-effective "seamless" approach of hindcasting 20 historical severe storms with the two global climate models, ECHAM6 and GA4 configuration of the Met Office Unified Model, run in a numerical weather prediction mode using different lead times, and horizontal and vertical resolutions. These runs are then compared to re-analysis data. The main conclusions from this work are: (a) objectively identified cyclone tracks are represented satisfactorily by most hindcasts; (b) sensitivity to vertical resolution is low; (c) cyclone depth is systematically under-predicted for a coarse resolution of T63 by both climate models; (d) no systematic bias is found for the higher resolution of T127 out to about three days, demonstrating that climate models are in fact able to represent the complex dynamics of explosively deepening cyclones well, if given the correct initial conditions; (e) an analysis using a recently developed diagnostic tool based on the surface pressure tendency equation points to too weak diabatic processes, mainly latent heating, as the main source for the under-prediction in the coarse-resolution runs. Finally, an interesting implication of these results is that the too low number of deep cyclones in many free-running climate simulations may therefore be related to an insufficient number of storm-prone initial conditions. This question will be addressed in future work.

Interannual variability of the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones striking the California coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendez, F. J.; Rueda, A.; Barnard, P.; Mori, N.; Nakajo, S.; Albuquerque, J.

2016-12-01

Hurricanes hitting California have a very low ocurrence probability due to typically cool ocean temperature and westward tracks. However, damages associated to these improbable events would be dramatic in Southern California and understanding the oceanographic and atmospheric drivers is of paramount importance for coastal risk management for present and future climates. A statistical analysis of the historical events is very difficult due to the limited resolution of atmospheric and oceanographic forcing data available. In this work, we propose a combination of: (a) climate-based statistical downscaling methods (Espejo et al, 2015); and (b) a synthetic stochastic tropical cyclone (TC) model (Nakajo et al, 2014). To build the statistical downscaling model, Y=f(X), we apply a combination of principal component analysis and the k-means classification algorithm to find representative patterns from large-scale may-to-november averaged monthly anomalies of SST and thermocline depth fields in Tropical Pacific (predictor X) and the associated historical tropical cyclones in Eastern North Pacific basin (predictand Y). As data for the historical occurrence and paths of tropical cyclones are scarce, we apply a stochastic TC model which is based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the joint distribution of track, minimum sea level pressure and translation speed of the historical events in the Eastern Central Pacific Ocean. Results will show the ability of the approach to explain the interannual variability of the frequency and intensity of TCs in Southern California, which is clearly related to post El Niño Eastern Pacific and El Niño Central Pacific. References Espejo, A., Méndez, F.J., Diez, J., Medina, R., Al-Yahyai, S. (2015) Seasonal probabilistic forecasting of tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean, Journal of Flood Risk Management, DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12197 Nakajo, S., N. Mori, T. Yasuda, and H. Mase (2014) Global Stochastic Tropical Cyclone Model Based on Principal Component Analysis and Cluster Analysis, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-13-08.1

Application of aircraft navigation sensors to enhanced vision systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sweet, Barbara T.

1993-01-01

In this presentation, the applicability of various aircraft navigation sensors to enhanced vision system design is discussed. First, the accuracy requirements of the FAA for precision landing systems are presented, followed by the current navigation systems and their characteristics. These systems include Instrument Landing System (ILS), Microwave Landing System (MLS), Inertial Navigation, Altimetry, and Global Positioning System (GPS). Finally, the use of navigation system data to improve enhanced vision systems is discussed. These applications include radar image rectification, motion compensation, and image registration.

Record Balkan floods of 2014 linked to planetary wave resonance.

PubMed

Stadtherr, Lisa; Coumou, Dim; Petoukhov, Vladimir; Petri, Stefan; Rahmstorf, Stefan

2016-04-01

In May 2014, the Balkans were hit by a Vb-type cyclone that brought disastrous flooding and severe damage to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Croatia. Vb cyclones migrate from the Mediterranean, where they absorb warm and moist air, to the north, often causing flooding in central/eastern Europe. Extreme rainfall events are increasing on a global scale, and both thermodynamic and dynamical mechanisms play a role. Where thermodynamic aspects are generally well understood, there is large uncertainty associated with current and future changes in dynamics. We study the climatic and meteorological factors that influenced the catastrophic flooding in the Balkans, where we focus on large-scale circulation. We show that the Vb cyclone was unusually stationary, bringing extreme rainfall for several consecutive days, and that this situation was likely linked to a quasi-stationary circumglobal Rossby wave train. We provide evidence that this quasi-stationary wave was amplified by wave resonance. Statistical analysis of daily spring rainfall over the Balkan region reveals significant upward trends over 1950-2014, especially in the high quantiles relevant for flooding events. These changes cannot be explained by simple thermodynamic arguments, and we thus argue that dynamical processes likely played a role in increasing flood risks over the Balkans.

Navigation: National Plans; NAVSTAR-GPS; Laser Gyros

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-08-31

REFERENC-~CP STER . TECHNICAL REPORT ! "NO. 12686,-’-. - NAVIGATION: NATIONAL PLANS ; NAVSTAR-GPS; LASER GYROS CONTRACT NO. DAAK30-80-C-0073 31 AUGUST...Technical ReportAW Ng. riiNational Plans ; Navstar-GPS; S... : NavstarGPS; a3 Sept 1980 - 31 Aug 1982 ....Lasr Gyros. 6. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMBER PRA...identify by block number) Navigation Navigation Satellites Laser Gyros Position-Location . NAVSTAR-GPS Fiberoptic Gyros Planning Global Positioning System

Global Positioning System Navigation Above 76,000 km for NASA's Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winternitz, Luke B.; Bamford, William A.; Price, Samuel R.; Carpenter, J. Russell; Long, Anne C.; Farahmand, Mitra

2016-01-01

NASA's Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission, launched in March of 2015, consists of a controlled formation of four spin-stabilized spacecraft in similar highly elliptic orbits reaching apogee at radial distances of 12 and 25 Earth radii (RE) in the first and second phases of the mission. Navigation for MMS is achieved independently on-board each spacecraft by processing Global Positioning System (GPS) observables using NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)'s Navigator GPS receiver and the Goddard Enhanced Onboard Navigation System (GEONS) extended Kalman filter software. To our knowledge, MMS constitutes, by far, the highest-altitude operational use of GPS to date and represents a high point of over a decade of high-altitude GPS navigation research and development at GSFC. In this paper we will briefly describe past and ongoing high-altitude GPS research efforts at NASA GSFC and elsewhere, provide details on the design of the MMS GPS navigation system, and present on-orbit performance data from the first phase. We extrapolate these results to predict performance in the second phase orbit, and conclude with a discussion of the implications of the MMS results for future high-altitude GPS navigation, which we believe to be broad and far-reaching.

Global Positioning System Navigation Above 76,000 km for NASA's Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winternitz, Luke B.; Bamford, William A.; Price, Samuel R.; Carpenter, J. Russell; Long, Anne C.; Farahmand, Mitra

2016-01-01

NASA's Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission, launched in March of 2015, consists of a controlled formation of four spin-stabilized spacecraft in similar highly elliptic orbits reaching apogee at radial distances of 12 and 25 Earth radii (RE) in the first and second phases of the mission. Navigation for MMSis achieved independently on-board each spacecraft by processing Global Positioning System (GPS) observables using NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)'s Navigator GPS receiver and the Goddard Enhanced Onboard Navigation System (GEONS) extended Kalman filter software. To our knowledge, MMS constitutes, by far, the highest-altitude operational use of GPS to date and represents a high point of over a decade of high-altitude GPS navigation research and development at GSFC. In this paper we will briefly describe past and ongoing high-altitude GPS research efforts at NASA GSFC and elsewhere, provide details on the design of the MMS GPS navigation system, and present on-orbit performance data from the first phase. We extrapolate these results to predict performance in the second phase orbit, and conclude with a discussion of the implications of the MMS results for future high-altitude GPS navigation, which we believe to be broad and far-reaching.

National aerospace meeting of the Institute of Navigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fell, Patrick

The program for this year's aerospace meeting of The Institute of Navigation addressed developments in the evolving Global Positioning System (GPS) of navigation satellites, inertial navigation systems, and other electronic navigation systems and their applications. Also included in the program were a limited number of papers addressing the geodetic use of the GPS system.The Global Positioning System is a constellation of 18 navigation satellites being developed by the Department of Defense to provide instantaneous worldwide navigation. The system will support a multitude of military applications. The first paper by Jacobson reviewed the engineering development of GPS navigation receivers stressing the use of common hardware and software modules. A later paper by Ould described the mechanization of a digital receiver for GPS applications designed for faster acquisition of the spread spectrum satellite transmissions than analog receivers. The paper by Brady discussed the worldwide coverage that is provided by the limited number of satellites that will constitute the GPS constellation through 1983. The capability provided by the satellites presently on orbit would support a variety of experiments at almost any location. Tables of multiple satellite availability are provided for numerous worldwide locations. For civil aviation applications, Vogel addressed the satellite geometry considerations for low cost GPS user equipment, Esposito described the Federal Aviation Administration acceptance tests of a GPS navigation receiver, and Hopkins discussed the design and capability of an integrated GPS strapdown attitude and heading reference system for avionics.

GPS Timing Performance

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

termed the Galileo -GPS Time Offset (GGTO), and it will be Type 35 in the GPS CNAV message. Knowledge of the GGTO makes it possible for a properly...U.S. Naval Observatory (USNO) [1]. Interoperability with Galileo , and perhaps someday with other Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), is to...Interoperability with Galileo , and perhaps someday with other Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), is to be established through transmission of the

Analysis of Wind and Sea State in SAR data of Hurricanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoja, D.; Schulz-Stellenfleth, J.; Lehner, S.; Horstmann, J.

2003-04-01

Spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is still the only instrument providing directional ocean wave and in addition surface wind information on a global and continuous basis. Operating in ASAR wave mode ENVISAT, launched in 2002, provides 10 km x 5 km SAR images every 100 km along the orbit. These SAR data continue and expand the SAR era of the European Remote Sensing satellites ERS-1 and ERS-2, which have acquired similar SAR data since 1991 on a global basis. To not only use the official ERS SAR wave mode product, which consists only of the SAR image power spectrum, but also the full SAR image information a subset of 27 days globally distributed ERS-2 SAR raw data were processed to single look complex SAR imagettes using the BSAR processor developed at the German Aerospace Center. These data have the same format as the official ESA product for ENVISAT ASAR wave mode data. This subset of 34,000 ERS-2 SAR imagettes was used to develop and validate algorithms for wind and wave retrieval, which are also applicable to ENVISAT ASAR wave mode data. The time frame of the dataset covers several tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean of which hurricane Fran has been investigated in detail together with additional data available from scatterometers, buoys and weather centers. Hurricane Fran was active from August 23 to September 8, 1996. During this time, hurricane Fran developed near the African coast and progressed over the North Atlantic Ocean. Landfall occurred on September 5, 1996 at the coast of North Carolina, USA. Fran was part of a whole series of tropical cyclones travelling about the same course in a short time. The wind is extracted from SAR imagery and compared to results of the numerical model output provided by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and co-located ERS-2 scatterometer measurements. The Swell and wind sea systems generated by the tropical cyclones are measured using SAR cross spectra and a newly developed partitioning technique. For each component wave system (partition) spectral parameters like wavelength and wave propagation direction are calculated and compared to numerical model output provided by ECMWF. The progression of the tropical cyclones is presented and it is described, how the hurricanes are portrayed in the SAR data. The response of waves to fast turning winds is analyzed. Conclusions are drawn about the wave model forecast in hurricane situations using satellite wave mode data. Keywords: Hurricanes, SAR, ocean winds, ocean waves, wind sea and swell

78 FR 22554 - Nationwide Differential Global Positioning System (NDGPS)

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-16

... developed by the Coast Guard in the 1990s to improve GPS-calculated positions for navigation, for positioning aids to navigation, in support of maritime safety requirements and to offset the error induced by..., maintain, and operate such aids to navigation is found in 14 U.S.C. 81. \\1\\ Initially, high quality GPS...

Evaluation of Design Assurance Regulations for Safety of Space Navigation Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratti, B.; Sarno, M.; De Andreis, C.

2005-12-01

The European Space Agency (ESA), the European Community (EC), and the European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (Eurocontrol) are contributing to the development of a Global positioning and Navigation Satellite System, known as GNSS. The development programme is carried out in two main steps:• GNSS-1: the first-generation system, based on signals received from the GPS (USA) and GLONASS (Russia) constellations, and augmentation systems like EGNOS (European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service)• GNSS-2: the second-generation system, that will achieve the ultimate objective of European sovereignty for position determination, navigation and time dissemination. This system, named Galileo, comprises a global space and ground control infrastructure.The Galileo navigation signal will be used in the frame of safety-critical transport applications, thus it is necessary to assess the space safety assurance activity against the civil safety regulations and safety management system.. RTCA DO-254 and IEC 61508 standards, considered as part of best practice engineering references, for the development of safety- related systems in most applications, were selected during phases B2 and C0 of the Galileo project for this purpose.

An Initial Assessment of the Impact of CYGNSS Ocean Surface Wind Assimilation on Navy Global and Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, N. L.; Tsu, J.; Swadley, S. D.

2017-12-01

We assess the impact of assimilation of CYclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) ocean surface winds observations into the NAVGEM[i] global and COAMPS®[ii] mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. Both NAVGEM and COAMPS® used the NRL 4DVar assimilation system NAVDAS-AR[iii]. Long term monitoring of the NAVGEM Forecast Sensitivity Observation Impact (FSOI) indicates that the forecast error reduction for ocean surface wind vectors (ASCAT and WindSat) are significantly larger than for SSMIS wind speed observations. These differences are larger than can be explained by simply two pieces of information (for wind vectors) versus one (wind speed). To help understand these results, we conducted a series of Observing System Experiments (OSEs) to compare the assimilation of ASCAT wind vectors with the equivalent (computed) ASCAT wind speed observations. We found that wind vector assimilation was typically 3 times more effective at reducing the NAVGEM forecast error, with a higher percentage of beneficial observations. These results suggested that 4DVar, in the absence of an additional nonlinear outer loop, has limited ability to modify the analysis wind direction. We examined several strategies for assimilating CYGNSS ocean surface wind speed observations. In the first approach, we assimilated CYGNSS as wind speed observations, following the same methodology used for SSMIS winds. The next two approaches converted CYGNSS wind speed to wind vectors, using NAVGEM sea level pressure fields (following Holton, 1979), and using NAVGEM 10-m wind fields with the AER Variational Analysis Method. Finally, we compared these methods to CYGNSS wind speed assimilation using multiple outer loops with NAVGEM Hybrid 4DVar. Results support the earlier studies suggesting that NAVDAS-AR wind speed assimilation is sub-optimal. We present detailed results from multi-month NAVGEM assimilation runs along with case studies using COAMPS®. Comparisons include the fit of analyses and forecasts with in-situ observations and analyses from other NWP centers (e.g. ECMWF and GFS). [i] NAVy Global Environmental Model [ii] COAMPS® is a registered trademark of the Naval Research Laboratory for the Navy's Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System. [iii] NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System

The NASA Earth Science Program and Small Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neeck, Steven P.

2015-01-01

Earth's changing environment impacts every aspect of life on our planet and climate change has profound implications on society. Studying Earth as a single complex system is essential to understanding the causes and consequences of climate change and other global environmental concerns. NASA's Earth Science Division (ESD) shapes an interdisciplinary view of Earth, exploring interactions among the atmosphere, oceans, ice sheets, land surface interior, and life itself. This enables scientists to measure global and climate changes and to inform decisions by Government, other organizations, and people in the United States and around the world. The data collected and results generated are accessible to other agencies and organizations to improve the products and services they provide, including air quality indices, disaster prediction and response, agricultural yield projections, and aviation safety. ESD's Flight Program provides the spacebased observing systems and supporting infrastructure for mission operations and scientific data processing and distribution that support NASA's Earth science research and modeling activities. The Flight Program currently has 21 operating Earth observing space missions, including the recently launched Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, and the International Space Station (ISS) RapidSCAT and Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS) instruments. The ESD has 22 more missions and instruments planned for launch over the next decade. These include first and second tier missions from the 2007 Earth Science Decadal Survey, Climate Continuity missions to assure availability of key climate data sets, and small-sized competitively selected orbital missions and instrument missions of opportunity belonging to the Earth Venture (EV) Program. Small satellites (500 kg or less) are critical contributors to these current and future satellite missions. Some examples are the aforementioned Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow On (GRACE FO), and the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) microsatellite constellation. Small satellites also support ESD in space validation and risk reduction of enabling technologies (components and systems). The status of the ESD Flight Program and the role of small satellites will be discussed.

Hubble’s Global View of Jupiter During the Juno Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simon, Amy A.; Wong, Michael H.; Orton, Glenn S.; Cosentino, Richard; Tollefson, Joshua; Johnson, Perianne

2017-10-01

With two observing programs designed for mapping clouds and hazes in Jupiter's atmosphere during the Juno mission, the Hubble Space Telescope is acquiring an unprecedented set of global maps for study. The Outer Planet Atmospheres Legacy program (OPAL, PI: Simon) and the Wide Field Coverage for Juno program (WFCJ, PI: Wong) are designed to enable frequent multi-wavelength global mapping of Jupiter, with many maps timed specifically for Juno’s perijove passes. Filters span wavelengths from 212 to 894 nm. Besides offering global views for Juno observation context, they also reveal a wealth of information about interesting atmospheric dynamical features. We will summarize the latest findings from these global mapping programs, including changes in the Great Red Spot, zonal wind profile analysis, and persistent cyclone-generated waves in the North Equatorial Belt.

Characteristics of the internal and external sources of the Mediterranean synoptic cyclones for the period 1956-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almazroui, Mansour; Awad, Adel M.; Nazrul Islam, M.

2017-07-01

This paper investigates the main sources and features of the Mediterranean synoptic cyclones affecting the basin, using the cyclone tracks. The cyclones' tracks are identified using sea level pressure (SLP) from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period 1956-2013. The identified cyclones are classified into two categories: basin affected and basin non-affected. Most of the basin-affected (non-affected) cyclones are internal (external), i.e., generated inside (outside) the Mediterranean basin. This study reveals four (five) main sources of internal (external) cyclones. These four (five) main sources generated about 63.76% (57.25%) of the internal (external) cyclones. Seasonal analysis shows that most of the basin-affected internal (external) cyclones were generated in the winter (spring) season. The lowest number of cyclones were found in the summer. Moreover, the synoptic study of the atmospheric systems accompanied the highest- and lowest-generated years demonstrates that the deepening of the north Europe cyclones and the relative positions of Azores- and Siberian-high systems represent the important factors that influence the number of internal cyclones. Essential factors influencing the external cyclones are the strength of the maximum upper wind, Azores high, Siberian high, and orientations of their ridges.

Cyclonic eddies identified in the Cape Basin of the South Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, C.; Lutjeharms, J. R. E.

2011-03-01

Inter-ocean exchange south of Africa takes place largely through the movement of Agulhas Rings into the Cape Basin. Recent observations have shown that the highly energetic flow field in this basin consists of anti-cyclonic rings as well as cyclonic eddies. Very little is known of the characteristics of the cyclonic eddies. Using altimetric data, this study determines the location, frequency and seasonality of these cyclonic eddies their size, trajectories, life spans and their association with Agulhas Rings. Cyclonic eddies were seen to split, merge and link with other cyclonic eddies, where splitting events created child cyclonic eddies. The 105 parent and 157 child cyclonic eddies identified over a decade show that on average 11 parent and 17 child cyclonic eddies appear annually in AVISO merged absolute dynamic topography data along the continental slope. Thirty-two percent follow an overall west south-westward direction, with 27% going west north-westward. Average translocation speeds are 2.2 ± 0.1 km/day for parent and 3.0 ± 0.2 km/day for child cyclonic eddies. Parent cyclonic eddy lifespan averaged 250 ± 18 days; whereas child cyclonic eddies survived for only 118 ± 11 days. A significant difference in lifespan for parent and child cyclonic eddies identified in the north and south region of the study area was detected. Seventy-seven percent of the northern and 93% of the southern cyclonic eddies were first detected directly adjacent to passing Agulhas Rings, suggesting a vital interaction between these mesoscale eddies within the region. Topographical features appeared to affect the behaviour and lifespan of these deep cyclonic eddies.

Contributions of Tropical Cyclones to the North Atlantic Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The tropical cyclone rainfall climatology study that was performed for the North Pacific was extended to the North Atlantic. Similar to the North Pacific tropical cyclone study, mean monthly rainfall within 444 km of the center of the North Atlantic tropical cyclones (i.e., that reached storm stage and greater) was estimated from passive microwave satellite observations during, an eleven year period. These satellite-observed rainfall estimates were used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Atlantic total rainfall during, June-November when tropical cyclones were most abundant. The main results from this study indicate: 1) that tropical cyclones contribute, respectively, 4%, 3%, and 4% to the western, eastern, and entire North Atlantic; 2) similar to that observed in the North Pacific, the maximum in North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall is approximately 5 - 10 deg poleward (depending on longitude) of the maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute regionally a maximum of 30% of the total rainfall 'northeast of Puerto Rico, within a region near 15 deg N 55 deg W, and off the west coast of Africa; 4) there is no lag between the months with maximum tropical cyclone rainfall and non-tropical cyclone rainfall in the western North Atlantic, while in the eastern North Atlantic, maximum tropical cyclone rainfall precedes maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 5) like the North Pacific, North Atlantic tropical cyclones Of hurricane intensity generate the greatest amount of rainfall in the higher latitudes; and 6) warm ENSO events inhibit tropical cyclone rainfall.

Study on UKF based federal integrated navigation for high dynamic aviation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Gang; Shao, Wei; Chen, Kai; Yan, Jie

2011-08-01

High dynamic aircraft is a very attractive new generation vehicles, in which provides near space aviation with large flight envelope both speed and altitude, for example the hypersonic vehicles. The complex flight environments for high dynamic vehicles require high accuracy and stability navigation scheme. Since the conventional Strapdown Inertial Navigation System (SINS) and Global Position System (GPS) federal integrated scheme based on EKF (Extended Kalman Filter) is invalidation in GPS single blackout situation because of high speed flight, a new high precision and stability integrated navigation approach is presented in this paper, in which the SINS, GPS and Celestial Navigation System (CNS) is combined as a federal information fusion configuration based on nonlinear Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) algorithm. Firstly, the new integrated system state error is modeled. According to this error model, the SINS system is used as the navigation solution mathematic platform. The SINS combine with GPS constitute one error estimation filter subsystem based on UKF to obtain local optimal estimation, and the SINS combine with CNS constitute another error estimation subsystem. A non-reset federated configuration filter based on partial information is proposed to fuse two local optimal estimations to get global optimal error estimation, and the global optimal estimation is used to correct the SINS navigation solution. The χ 2 fault detection method is used to detect the subsystem fault, and the fault subsystem is isolation through fault interval to protect system away from the divergence. The integrated system takes advantages of SINS, GPS and CNS to an immense improvement for high accuracy and reliably high dynamic navigation application. Simulation result shows that federated fusion of using GPS and CNS to revise SINS solution is reasonable and availably with good estimation performance, which are satisfied with the demands of high dynamic flight navigation. The UKF is superior than EKF based integrated scheme, in which has smaller estimation error and quickly convergence rate.

Genesis of Twin Tropical Cyclones as Revealed by a Global Mesoscale Model: The Role of Mixed Rossby Gravity Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Bo-Wen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lin, Yuh-Lang; Laing, Arlene

2012-01-01

In this study, it is proposed that twin tropical cyclones (TCs), Kesiny and 01A, in May 2002 formed in association with the scale interactions of three gyres that appeared as a convectively-coupled mixed Rossby gravity (ccMRG) wave during an active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This is shown by analyzing observational data and performing simulations using a global mesoscale model. A 10-day control run is initialized at 0000 UTC 1 May 2002 with grid-scale condensation but no cumulus parameterizations. The ccMRG wave was identified as encompassing two developing and one non-developing gyres, the first two of which intensified and evolved into the twin TCs. The control run is able to reproduce the evolution of the ccMRG wave and the formation of the twin TCs about two and five days in advance as well as their subsequent intensity evolution and movement within an 8-10 day period. Five additional 10-day sensitivity experiments with different model configurations are conducted to help understand the interaction of the three gyres. These experiments suggest the improved lead time in the control run may be attributed to the realistic simulation of the ccMRG wave with the following processes: (I) wave deepening associated with wave shortening and/or the intensification of individual gyres, (2) poleward movement of gyres that may be associated with bOlll1dary layer processes, (3) realistic simulation of moist processes at regional scales in association with each of the gyres, and (4) the vertical phasing of low- and mid-level cyclonic circulations associated with a specific gyre.

An effort to improve track and intensity prediction of tropical cyclones through vortex initialization in NCUM-global model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Vivek; Routray, A.; Mallick, Swapan; George, John P.; Rajagopal, E. N.

2016-05-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) have strong impact on socio-economic conditions of the countries like India, Bangladesh and Myanmar owing to its awful devastating power. This brings in the need of precise forecasting system to predict the tracks and intensities of TCs accurately well in advance. However, it has been a great challenge for major operational meteorological centers over the years. Genesis of TCs over data sparse warm Tropical Ocean adds more difficulty to this. Weak and misplaced vortices at initial time are one of the prime sources of track and intensity errors in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Many previous studies have reported the forecast skill of track and intensity of TC improved due to the assimilation of satellite data along with vortex initialization (VI). Keeping this in mind, an attempt has been made to investigate the impact of vortex initialization for simulation of TC using UK-Met office global model, operational at NCMRWF (NCUM). This assessment is carried out by taking the case of a extremely severe cyclonic storm "Chapala" that occurred over Arabian Sea (AS) from 28th October to 3rd November 2015. Two numerical experiments viz. Vort-GTS (Assimilation of GTS observations with VI) and Vort-RAD (Same as Vort-GTS with assimilation of satellite data) are carried out. This vortex initialization study in NCUM model is first of its type over North Indian Ocean (NIO). The model simulation of TC is carried out with five different initial conditions through 24 hour cycles for both the experiments. The results indicate that the vortex initialization with assimilation of satellite data has a positive impact on the track and intensity forecast, landfall time and position error of the TCs.

Genesis of Twin Tropical Cyclones as Revealed by a Global Mesoscale Model: The Role of Mixed Rossby Gravity Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Bo-Wen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lin, Yuh-Lang; Laing, Arlene

2012-01-01

In this study, it is proposed that twin tropical cyclones (TCs), Kesiny and 01A, in May 2002 formed in association with the scale interactions of three gyres that appeared as a convectively coupled mixed Rossby gravity (ccMRG) wave during an active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This is shown by analyzing observational data, including NCEP reanalysis data and METEOSAT 7 IR satellite imagery, and performing numerical simulations using a global mesoscale model. A 10-day control run is initialized at 0000 UTC 1 May 2002 with grid-scale condensation but no sub-grid cumulus parameterizations. The ccMRG wave was identified as encompassing two developing and one non-developing gyres, the first two of which intensified and evolved into the twin TCs. The control run is able to reproduce the evolution of the ccMRG wave and thus the formation of the twin TCs about two and five days in advance as well as their subsequent intensity evolution and movement within an 8-10 day period. Five additional 10-day sensitivity experiments with different model configurations are conducted to help understand the interaction of the three gyres, leading to the formation of the TCs. These experiments suggest the improved lead time in the control run may be attributed to the realistic simulation of the ccMRG wave with the following processes: (1) wave deepening (intensification) associated with a reduction in wavelength and/or the intensification of individual gyres, (2) poleward movement of gyres that may be associated with boundary layer processes, (3) realistic simulation of moist processes at regional scales in association with each of the gyres, and (4) the vertical phasing of low- and mid-level cyclonic circulations associated with a specific gyre.

Virtual local target method for avoiding local minimum in potential field based robot navigation.

PubMed

Zou, Xi-Yong; Zhu, Jing

2003-01-01

A novel robot navigation algorithm with global path generation capability is presented. Local minimum is a most intractable but is an encountered frequently problem in potential field based robot navigation. Through appointing appropriately some virtual local targets on the journey, it can be solved effectively. The key concept employed in this algorithm are the rules that govern when and how to appoint these virtual local targets. When the robot finds itself in danger of local minimum, a virtual local target is appointed to replace the global goal temporarily according to the rules. After the virtual target is reached, the robot continues on its journey by heading towards the global goal. The algorithm prevents the robot from running into local minima anymore. Simulation results showed that it is very effective in complex obstacle environments.

Global Tuberculosis Report 2016

MedlinePlus

... Alt+0 Navigation Alt+1 Content Alt+2 Tuberculosis (TB) Menu Tuberculosis Data and statistics Regional Framework Resources Meetings and events Global tuberculosis report 2017 WHO has published a global TB ...

Autonomous satellite navigation with the Global Positioning System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuchs, A. J.; Wooden, W. H., II; Long, A. C.

1977-01-01

This paper discusses the potential of using the Global Positioning System (GPS) to provide autonomous navigation capability to NASA satellites in the 1980 era. Some of the driving forces motivating autonomous navigation are presented. These include such factors as advances in attitude control systems, onboard science annotation, and onboard gridding of imaging data. Simulation results which demonstrate baseline orbit determination accuracies using GPS data on Seasat, Landsat-D, and the Solar Maximum Mission are presented. Emphasis is placed on identifying error sources such as GPS time, GPS ephemeris, user timing biases, and user orbit dynamics, and in a parametric sense on evaluating their contribution to the orbit determination accuracies.

The use of available potential energy to evaluate the impact of satellite data on numerical model analysis during FGGE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horn, Lyle H.; Koehler, Thomas L.; Whittaker, Linda M.

1988-01-01

To evaluate the effect of the FGGE satellite observing system, the following two data sets were compared by examining the available potential energy (APE) and extratropical cyclone activity within the entire global domain during the first Special Observing Period: (1) the complete FGGE IIIb set, which incorporates satellite soundings, and (2) a NOSAT set which incorporates only conventional data. The time series of the daily total APEs indicate that NOSAT values are larger than the FGGE values, although in the Northern Hemisphere the differences are negligible. Analyses of cyclone scale features revealed only minor differences between the Northern Hemisphere FGGE and NOSAT analyses. On the other hand, substantial differences were revealed in the two Southern Hemisphere analyses, where the satellite soundings apparently add detail to the FGGE set.

Building resilience of the Global Positioning System to space weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, Genene; Kunches, Joseph

2011-12-01

Almost every aspect of the global economy now depends on GPS. Worldwide, nations are working to create a robust Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), which will provide global positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) services for applications such as aviation, electric power distribution, financial exchange, maritime navigation, and emergency management. The U.S. government is examining the vulnerabilities of GPS, and it is well known that space weather events, such as geomagnetic storms, contribute to errors in single-frequency GPS and are a significant factor for differential GPS. The GPS industry has lately begun to recognize that total electron content (TEC) signal delays, ionospheric scintillation, and solar radio bursts can also interfere with daily operations and that these threats grow with the approach of the next solar maximum, expected to occur in 2013. The key challenges raised by these circumstances are, first, to better understand the vulnerability of GPS technologies and services to space weather and, second, to develop policies that will build resilience and mitigate risk.

A Feasibility Analysis of Land-Based SINS/GNSS Gravimetry for Groundwater Resource Detection in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Chiang, Kai-Wei; Lin, Cheng-An; Kuo, Chung-Yen

2015-01-01

The integration of the Strapdown Inertial Navigation System and Global Navigation Satellite System (SINS/GNSS) has been implemented for land-based gravimetry and has been proven to perform well in estimating gravity. Based on the mGal-level gravimetry results, this research aims to construct and develop a land-based SINS/GNSS gravimetry device containing a navigation-grade Inertial Measurement Unit. This research also presents a feasibility analysis for groundwater resource detection. A preliminary comparison of the kinematic velocities and accelerations using multi-combination of GNSS data including Global Positioning System, Global Navigation Satellite System, and BeiDou Navigation Satellite System, indicates that three-system observations performed better than two-system data in the computation. A comparison of gravity derived from SINS/GNSS and measured using a relative gravimeter also shows that both agree reasonably well with a mean difference of 2.30 mGal. The mean difference between repeat measurements of gravity disturbance using SINS/GNSS is 2.46 mGal with a standard deviation of 1.32 mGal. The gravity variation because of the groundwater at Pingtung Plain, Taiwan could reach 2.72 mGal. Hence, the developed land-based SINS/GNSS gravimetry can sufficiently and effectively detect groundwater resources. PMID:26426019

A Feasibility Analysis of Land-Based SINS/GNSS Gravimetry for Groundwater Resource Detection in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chiang, Kai-Wei; Lin, Cheng-An; Kuo, Chung-Yen

2015-09-29

The integration of the Strapdown Inertial Navigation System and Global Navigation Satellite System (SINS/GNSS) has been implemented for land-based gravimetry and has been proven to perform well in estimating gravity. Based on the mGal-level gravimetry results, this research aims to construct and develop a land-based SINS/GNSS gravimetry device containing a navigation-grade Inertial Measurement Unit. This research also presents a feasibility analysis for groundwater resource detection. A preliminary comparison of the kinematic velocities and accelerations using multi-combination of GNSS data including Global Positioning System, Global Navigation Satellite System, and BeiDou Navigation Satellite System, indicates that three-system observations performed better than two-system data in the computation. A comparison of gravity derived from SINS/GNSS and measured using a relative gravimeter also shows that both agree reasonably well with a mean difference of 2.30 mGal. The mean difference between repeat measurements of gravity disturbance using SINS/GNSS is 2.46 mGal with a standard deviation of 1.32 mGal. The gravity variation because of the groundwater at Pingtung Plain, Taiwan could reach 2.72 mGal. Hence, the developed land-based SINS/GNSS gravimetry can sufficiently and effectively detect groundwater resources.

Changes on Mid-Latitude Cyclones due to Global Warming Simulated by a Global 20-km-mesh Atmospheric Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyamoto, K.

2005-12-01

I investigate how the intensity and the activity of mid-latitude cyclones change as a result of global warming, based on a time-slice experiment with a super-high resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model (20-km mesh TL959L60 MRI/JMA AGCM). The model was developed by the RR2002 project "Development of Super High Resolution Global and Regional Climate Models" funded by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. In this context, I use a 10-year control simulation with the climatological SST and a 10-year time-slice global warming simulation using the SST anomalies derived from the SRES A1B scenario run with the MRI-CGCM2.3 (T42L30 atmosphere, 0.5-2.0 x 2.5 L23 ocean) corresponding to the end of the 21st century. I have analyzed the sea-level pressure field and the kinetic energy field of the wind at the 500 hPa pressure level associated with mid-latitude transients from October through April. According to a comparison of 10-day average fields between present and future in the North Pacific, some statistically significant changes are found in a warmer climate for the both of sea-level pressure and the kinetic energy fields. In particular, from late winter through early spring, the sea-level pressure decreases on many parts of the whole Pacific. The kinetic energy of the wind becomes higher on center of the basin. Therefore, I suppose the Aleutian Low is likely to settle in longer by about one month than the present. Hereafter, I plan to investigate what kind of phenomena may accompany the changes on mid-latitude transients.

Statistical characteristics of austral summer cyclones in Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Na; Fu, Gang; Kuo, Ying-Hwa

2012-06-01

Characteristics of cyclones and explosively developing cyclones (or `bombs') over the Southern Ocean in austral summer (December, January and February) from 2004 to 2008 are analyzed by using the Final Analysis (FNL) data produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the United States. Statistical results show that both cyclones and explosively developing cyclones frequently develop in January, and most of them occur within the latitudinal zone between 55°S and 70°S. These cyclones gradually approach the Antarctic Continent from December to February. Generally cyclones and bombs move east-southeastward with some exceptions of northeastward movement. The lifetime of cyclones is around 2-6 d, and the horizontal scale is about 1000 km. Explosive cyclones have the lifetime of about 1 week with the horizontal scale reaching up to 3000 km. Compared with cyclones developed in the Northern Hemisphere, cyclones over the southern ocean have much higher occurrence frequency, lower central pressure and larger horizontal scale, which may be caused by the unique geographical features of the Southern Hemisphere.

Multi-Sensor Optimal Data Fusion Based on the Adaptive Fading Unscented Kalman Filter

PubMed Central

Gao, Bingbing; Hu, Gaoge; Gao, Shesheng; Gu, Chengfan

2018-01-01

This paper presents a new optimal data fusion methodology based on the adaptive fading unscented Kalman filter for multi-sensor nonlinear stochastic systems. This methodology has a two-level fusion structure: at the bottom level, an adaptive fading unscented Kalman filter based on the Mahalanobis distance is developed and serves as local filters to improve the adaptability and robustness of local state estimations against process-modeling error; at the top level, an unscented transformation-based multi-sensor optimal data fusion for the case of N local filters is established according to the principle of linear minimum variance to calculate globally optimal state estimation by fusion of local estimations. The proposed methodology effectively refrains from the influence of process-modeling error on the fusion solution, leading to improved adaptability and robustness of data fusion for multi-sensor nonlinear stochastic systems. It also achieves globally optimal fusion results based on the principle of linear minimum variance. Simulation and experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methodology for INS/GNSS/CNS (inertial navigation system/global navigation satellite system/celestial navigation system) integrated navigation. PMID:29415509

Multi-Sensor Optimal Data Fusion Based on the Adaptive Fading Unscented Kalman Filter.

PubMed

Gao, Bingbing; Hu, Gaoge; Gao, Shesheng; Zhong, Yongmin; Gu, Chengfan

2018-02-06

This paper presents a new optimal data fusion methodology based on the adaptive fading unscented Kalman filter for multi-sensor nonlinear stochastic systems. This methodology has a two-level fusion structure: at the bottom level, an adaptive fading unscented Kalman filter based on the Mahalanobis distance is developed and serves as local filters to improve the adaptability and robustness of local state estimations against process-modeling error; at the top level, an unscented transformation-based multi-sensor optimal data fusion for the case of N local filters is established according to the principle of linear minimum variance to calculate globally optimal state estimation by fusion of local estimations. The proposed methodology effectively refrains from the influence of process-modeling error on the fusion solution, leading to improved adaptability and robustness of data fusion for multi-sensor nonlinear stochastic systems. It also achieves globally optimal fusion results based on the principle of linear minimum variance. Simulation and experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methodology for INS/GNSS/CNS (inertial navigation system/global navigation satellite system/celestial navigation system) integrated navigation.

An extreme Arctic cyclone in August 2016 and its predictability on medium-range timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamagami, Akio; Matsueda, Mio; Tanaka, Hiroshi

2017-04-01

An extremely strong Arctic cyclone (AC) developed in August 2016. The AC exhibited a minimum sea level pressure (SLP) of 967.2 hPa and covered the entire Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean at 0000UTC on 16 August. At this time the AC was comparable to the strong AC observed in August 2012, in terms of horizontal extent, position, and intensity as measured by SLP. Two processes contributed to the explosive development of the AC: growth due to baroclinic instability, similar to extratropical cyclones, during the early part of the development stage, and later nonlinear development via the merging of upper warm cores. The AC was maintained for more than one month through multiple mergings with cyclones both generated in the Arctic and migrating northward from lower latitudes, as a result of the high cyclone activity in summer 2016. This study also investigated the predictability of the AC using operational medium-range ensemble forecasts: CMC (Canada), ECMWF (EU), JMA (Japan), NCEP (USA), and UKMO (UK), available at the The Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) database. The minimum SLP of the AC at 0000UTC on 16 August was well predicted by ECMWF 6-day, NCEP and UKMO 5-day, CMC 4-day, and JMA 3-day in advance. The predictability of the minimum SLP of the AC in August 2016 was much higher than that of the AC in 2012 August. Whereas most of the members well predicted the cyclogenesis of the AC, the growth due to baroclinic instability was weaker in some members. Even if the baroclinic growth was predicted well, predicted AC did not develop when the nonlinear development via the merging was not predict accurately. The accurate prediction of the processes in both early and later parts of the development stage was important for the accurate prediction of the development of the AC.

A global historical data set of tropical cyclone exposure (TCE-DAT)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geiger, Tobias; Frieler, Katja; Bresch, David N.

2018-01-01

Tropical cyclones pose a major risk to societies worldwide, with about 22 million directly affected people and damages of USD 29 billion on average per year over the last 20 years. While data on observed cyclones tracks (location of the center) and wind speeds are publicly available, these data sets do not contain information about the spatial extent of the storm and people or assets exposed. Here, we apply a simplified wind field model to estimate the areas exposed to wind speeds above 34, 64, and 96 knots (kn). Based on available spatially explicit data on population densities and gross domestic product (GDP) we estimate (1) the number of people and (2) the sum of assets exposed to wind speeds above these thresholds accounting for temporal changes in historical distribution of population and assets (TCE-hist) and assuming fixed 2015 patterns (TCE-2015). The associated spatially explicit and aggregated country-event-level exposure data (TCE-DAT) cover the period 1950 to 2015 and are freely available at https://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2017.011 (Geiger at al., 2017c). It is considered key information to (1) assess the contribution of climatological versus socioeconomic drivers of changes in exposure to tropical cyclones, (2) estimate changes in vulnerability from the difference in exposure and reported damages and calibrate associated damage functions, and (3) build improved exposure-based predictors to estimate higher-level societal impacts such as long-term effects on GDP, employment, or migration. We validate the adequateness of our methodology by comparing our exposure estimate to estimated exposure obtained from reported wind fields available since 1988 for the United States. We expect that the free availability of the underlying model and TCE-DAT will make research on tropical cyclone risks more accessible to non-experts and stakeholders.

Cyclone trends constrain monsoon variability during late Oligocene sea level highstands (Kachchh Basin, NW India)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reuter, M.; Piller, W. E.; Harzhauser, M.; Kroh, A.

2013-09-01

Climate change has an unknown impact on tropical cyclones and the Asian monsoon. Herein we present a sequence of fossil shell beds from the shallow-marine Maniyara Fort Formation (Kachcch Basin) as a recorder of tropical cyclone activity along the NW Indian coast during the late Oligocene warming period (~ 27-24 Ma). Proxy data providing information about the atmospheric circulation dynamics over the Indian subcontinent at this time are important since it corresponds to a major climate reorganization in Asia that ends up with the establishment of the modern Asian monsoon system at the Oligocene-Miocene boundary. The vast shell concentrations are comprised of a mixture of parautochthonous and allochthonous assemblages indicating storm-generated sediment transport from deeper to shallow water during third-order sea level highstands. Three distinct skeletal assemblages were distinguished, each recording a relative storm wave base. (1) A shallow storm wave base is shown by nearshore molluscs, reef corals and Clypeaster echinoids; (2) an intermediate storm wave base depth is indicated by lepidocyclinid foraminifers, Eupatagus echinoids and corallinacean algae; and (3) a deep storm wave base is represented by an Amussiopecten bivalve-Schizaster echinoid assemblage. These wave base depth estimates were used for the reconstruction of long-term tropical storm intensity during the late Oligocene. The development and intensification of cyclones over the recent Arabian Sea is primarily limited by the atmospheric monsoon circulation and strength of the associated vertical wind shear. Therefore, since the topographic boundary conditions for the Indian monsoon already existed in the late Oligocene, the reconstructed long-term cyclone trends were interpreted to reflect monsoon variability during the initiation of the Asian monsoon system. Our results imply an active monsoon over the Eastern Tethys at ~ 26 Ma followed by a period of monsoon weakening during the peak of the late Oligocene global warming (~ 24 Ma).

The Climatology of Extreme Surge-Producing Extratropical Cyclones in Observations and Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catalano, A. J.; Broccoli, A. J.; Kapnick, S. B.

2016-12-01

Extreme coastal storms devastate heavily populated areas around the world by producing powerful winds that can create a large storm surge. Both tropical and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) occur over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean, and the risks associated with ETCs can be just as severe as those associated with tropical storms (e.g. high winds, storm surge). At The Battery in New York City, 17 of the 20 largest storm surge events were a consequence of extratropical cyclones (ETCs), which are more prevalent than tropical cyclones in the northeast region of the United States. Therefore, we analyze the climatology of ETCs that are capable of producing a large storm surge along the northeastern coast of the United States. For a historical analysis, water level data was collected from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tide gauges at three separate locations (Sewell's Pt., VA, The Battery, NY, and Boston, MA). We perform a k-means cluster analysis of sea level pressure from the ECMWF 20th Century Reanalysis dataset (ERA-20c) to explore the natural sets of observed storms with similar characteristics. We then composite cluster results with features of atmospheric circulation to observe the influence of interannual and multidecadal variability such as the North Atlantic Oscillation. Since observational records contain a small number of well-documented ETCs, the capability of a high-resolution coupled climate model to realistically simulate such extreme coastal storms will also be assessed. Global climate models provide a means of simulating a much larger sample of extreme events, allowing for better resolution of the tail of the distribution. We employ a tracking algorithm to identify ETCs in a multi-century simulation under present-day conditions. Quantitative comparisons of cyclolysis, cyclogenesis, and cyclone densities of simulated ETCs and storms from recent history (using reanalysis products) are conducted.

Sensitivity of physical parameterizations on prediction of tropical cyclone Nargis over the Bay of Bengal using WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raju, P. V. S.; Potty, Jayaraman; Mohanty, U. C.

2011-09-01

Comprehensive sensitivity analyses on physical parameterization schemes of Weather Research Forecast (WRF-ARW core) model have been carried out for the prediction of track and intensity of tropical cyclones by taking the example of cyclone Nargis, which formed over the Bay of Bengal and hit Myanmar on 02 May 2008, causing widespread damages in terms of human and economic losses. The model performances are also evaluated with different initial conditions of 12 h intervals starting from the cyclogenesis to the near landfall time. The initial and boundary conditions for all the model simulations are drawn from the global operational analysis and forecast products of National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-GFS) available for the public at 1° lon/lat resolution. The results of the sensitivity analyses indicate that a combination of non-local parabolic type exchange coefficient PBL scheme of Yonsei University (YSU), deep and shallow convection scheme with mass flux approach for cumulus parameterization (Kain-Fritsch), and NCEP operational cloud microphysics scheme with diagnostic mixed phase processes (Ferrier), predicts better track and intensity as compared against the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimates. Further, the final choice of the physical parameterization schemes selected from the above sensitivity experiments is used for model integration with different initial conditions. The results reveal that the cyclone track, intensity and time of landfall are well simulated by the model with an average intensity error of about 8 hPa, maximum wind error of 12 m s-1and track error of 77 km. The simulations also show that the landfall time error and intensity error are decreasing with delayed initial condition, suggesting that the model forecast is more dependable when the cyclone approaches the coast. The distribution and intensity of rainfall are also well simulated by the model and comparable with the TRMM estimates.

Computer-aided system for detecting runway incursions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sridhar, Banavar; Chatterji, Gano B.

1994-07-01

A synthetic vision system for enhancing the pilot's ability to navigate and control the aircraft on the ground is described. The system uses the onboard airport database and images acquired by external sensors. Additional navigation information needed by the system is provided by the Inertial Navigation System and the Global Positioning System. The various functions of the system, such as image enhancement, map generation, obstacle detection, collision avoidance, guidance, etc., are identified. The available technologies, some of which were developed at NASA, that are applicable to the aircraft ground navigation problem are noted. Example images of a truck crossing the runway while the aircraft flies close to the runway centerline are described. These images are from a sequence of images acquired during one of the several flight experiments conducted by NASA to acquire data to be used for the development and verification of the synthetic vision concepts. These experiments provide a realistic database including video and infrared images, motion states from the Inertial Navigation System and the Global Positioning System, and camera parameters.

Integrating Communication and Navigation: Next Generation Broadcast Service (NGBS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Donaldson, Jennifer

2017-01-01

NASA Goddard has been investing in technology demonstrations of a beacon service, now called Next Generation Broadcast Services (NGBS). NGBS is a global, space-based, communications and navigation service for users of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) and the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS). NGBS will provide an S-band beacon messaging source and radio navigation available to users at orbital altitudes 1400 km and below, increasing the autonomy and resiliency of onboard communication and navigation. NGBS will deliver both one-way radiometric (Doppler and pseudorange) and fast forward data transport services to users. Portions of the overall forward data volume will be allocated for fixed message types while the remaining data volume will be left for user forward command data. The NGBS signal will reside within the 2106.43 MHz spectrum currently allocated for the Space Networks multiple access forward (MAF) service and a live service demonstration is currently being planned via the 2nd and 3rd generation TDRS satellites.

Design and testing of a multi-sensor pedestrian location and navigation platform.

PubMed

Morrison, Aiden; Renaudin, Valérie; Bancroft, Jared B; Lachapelle, Gérard

2012-01-01

Navigation and location technologies are continually advancing, allowing ever higher accuracies and operation under ever more challenging conditions. The development of such technologies requires the rapid evaluation of a large number of sensors and related utilization strategies. The integration of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSSs) such as the Global Positioning System (GPS) with accelerometers, gyros, barometers, magnetometers and other sensors is allowing for novel applications, but is hindered by the difficulties to test and compare integrated solutions using multiple sensor sets. In order to achieve compatibility and flexibility in terms of multiple sensors, an advanced adaptable platform is required. This paper describes the design and testing of the NavCube, a multi-sensor navigation, location and timing platform. The system provides a research tool for pedestrian navigation, location and body motion analysis in an unobtrusive form factor that enables in situ data collections with minimal gait and posture impact. Testing and examples of applications of the NavCube are provided.

Application of Deep Learning to Detect Precursors of Tropical Cyclone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsuoka, D.; Nakano, M.; Sugiyama, D.; Uchida, S.

2017-12-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) affect significant damage to human society. Predicting TC generation as soon as possible is important issue in both academic and social perspectives. In the present work, we investigate the probability of predicting TCs seven days prior using deep neural networks. The training data is produced from 30-year cloud resolving global atmospheric simulation (NICAM) with 14 km horizontal resolution (Kodama et al., 2015). We employed a TCs tracking algorithm (Sugi et al., 2002; Nakano et al., 2015) to NICAM simulation data in order to generate supervised cloud images (horizontal sizes are 800-1,000km). We generate approximately one million images of "TCs (include their precursors)" and "not TCs (low pressure clouds)". We generate ten types of image classifier based on 2-dimensional convolutional neural network, includes four convolutional layers, three pooling layers and two fully connected layers. The final predicted results are obtained by these ensemble mean values. Generated classifiers are applied to untrained global simulation data (four million test images). As a result, we succeeded in predicting the precursors of TCs seven and five days before their formation with a Recall of 88.6% and 89.6% (Precision is 11.4%), respectively.

Simulations of Tornadoes, Tropical Cyclones, MJOs, and QBOs, using GFDL's multi-scale global climate modeling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Shian-Jiann; Harris, Lucas; Chen, Jan-Huey; Zhao, Ming

2014-05-01

A multi-scale High-Resolution Atmosphere Model (HiRAM) is being developed at NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. The model's dynamical framework is the non-hydrostatic extension of the vertically Lagrangian finite-volume dynamical core (Lin 2004, Monthly Wea. Rev.) constructed on a stretchable (via Schmidt transformation) cubed-sphere grid. Physical parametrizations originally designed for IPCC-type climate predictions are in the process of being modified and made more "scale-aware", in an effort to make the model suitable for multi-scale weather-climate applications, with horizontal resolution ranging from 1 km (near the target high-resolution region) to as low as 400 km (near the antipodal point). One of the main goals of this development is to enable simulation of high impact weather phenomena (such as tornadoes, thunderstorms, category-5 hurricanes) within an IPCC-class climate modeling system previously thought impossible. We will present preliminary results, covering a very wide spectrum of temporal-spatial scales, ranging from simulation of tornado genesis (hours), Madden-Julian Oscillations (intra-seasonal), topical cyclones (seasonal), to Quasi Biennial Oscillations (intra-decadal), using the same global multi-scale modeling system.

Trust regions in Kriging-based optimization with expected improvement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regis, Rommel G.

2016-06-01

The Kriging-based Efficient Global Optimization (EGO) method works well on many expensive black-box optimization problems. However, it does not seem to perform well on problems with steep and narrow global minimum basins and on high-dimensional problems. This article develops a new Kriging-based optimization method called TRIKE (Trust Region Implementation in Kriging-based optimization with Expected improvement) that implements a trust-region-like approach where each iterate is obtained by maximizing an Expected Improvement (EI) function within some trust region. This trust region is adjusted depending on the ratio of the actual improvement to the EI. This article also develops the Kriging-based CYCLONE (CYClic Local search in OptimizatioN using Expected improvement) method that uses a cyclic pattern to determine the search regions where the EI is maximized. TRIKE and CYCLONE are compared with EGO on 28 test problems with up to 32 dimensions and on a 36-dimensional groundwater bioremediation application in appendices supplied as an online supplement available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0305215X.2015.1082350. The results show that both algorithms yield substantial improvements over EGO and they are competitive with a radial basis function method.

Position Measurement Standard Evaluation

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1975-02-01

The objectives of the Position Measurement Standard Program were to collect navigation data from three DME receivers and a low-frequency GLOBAL Navigation system, and evaluate their relative performance against a reference radar. Flight test data dur...

The dynamics of cyclone clustering in re-analysis and a high-resolution climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Priestley, Matthew; Pinto, Joaquim; Dacre, Helen; Shaffrey, Len

2017-04-01

Extratropical cyclones have a tendency to occur in groups (clusters) in the exit of the North Atlantic storm track during wintertime, potentially leading to widespread socioeconomic impacts. The Winter of 2013/14 was the stormiest on record for the UK and was characterised by the recurrent clustering of intense extratropical cyclones. This clustering was associated with a strong, straight and persistent North Atlantic 250 hPa jet with Rossby wave-breaking (RWB) on both flanks, pinning the jet in place. Here, we provide for the first time an analysis of all clustered events in 36 years of the ERA-Interim Re-analysis at three latitudes (45˚ N, 55˚ N, 65˚ N) encompassing various regions of Western Europe. The relationship between the occurrence of RWB and cyclone clustering is studied in detail. Clustering at 55˚ N is associated with an extended and anomalously strong jet flanked on both sides by RWB. However, clustering at 65(45)˚ N is associated with RWB to the south (north) of the jet, deflecting the jet northwards (southwards). A positive correlation was found between the intensity of the clustering and RWB occurrence to the north and south of the jet. However, there is considerable spread in these relationships. Finally, analysis has shown that the relationships identified in the re-analysis are also present in a high-resolution coupled global climate model (HiGEM). In particular, clustering is associated with the same dynamical conditions at each of our three latitudes in spite of the identified biases in frequency and intensity of RWB.

Challenges associated with the prediction of tropical storms in the Bay of Bengal when using the WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machineni, N.; Veldore, V.; Mesquita, M. D. S.

2016-12-01

Accuracy in predicting tropical cyclones over low lying coastal regions is pivotal for understanding storm tracks and their subsequent impacts. The present study highlights the challenges in predicting the Bay of Bengal (BOB) cyclone "AILA" (during 23rd to 25th May 2009) using the Weather Research and Forecast model, Advanced research core module (WRF-ARW). The model configuration uses a two-way interactive nested domain with 10 km resolution over BOB. Its initial and boundary conditions are driven from the NCEP FNL operational global analysis data at every 6 hours. A total of 74 sensitivity experiments were conducted to test the following factors and levels: a) parametrization schemes: two microphysics and two cumulus physics schemes used to select appropriate combination over study region, b) model domain:including/excluding Himalayas, c) vertical resolution: eight various increasing/decreasing vertical levels have been carried out to evaluate the storm track dependencies on these factors, d) domain size: and increasing (decreasing) the grid points of model domain in east-west direction shows that approximately 50-100 km track difference for every two points. Our results show that, the experiments including the Himalayas provide a better representation of cyclone track and speed. In order to reduce the computational time required to do such tremendous amount of experiment, we hypothesize to use statistical tools of experimental design which can involve all the factors that determine the cyclone tracks. A proper experimental design might provide unbiased results and also we might need less number of experiments.

Challenges associated with the prediction of tropical storms in the Bay of Bengal when using the WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machineni, Nehru; Veldore, Vidyunmala; Mesquita, Michel d. S.

2017-04-01

Accuracy in predicting tropical cyclones over low lying coastal regions is pivotal for understanding storm tracks and their subsequent impacts. The present study highlights the challenges in predicting the Bay of Bengal (BOB) cyclone "AILA" (during 23rd to 25th May 2009) using the Weather Research and Forecast model, Advanced research core module (WRF-ARW). The model configuration uses a two-way interactive nested domain with 10 km resolution over BOB. Its initial and boundary conditions are driven from the NCEP FNL operational global analysis data at every 6 hours. A total of 74 sensitivity experiments were conducted to test the following factors and levels: a) parametrization schemes: two microphysics and two cumulus physics schemes used to select appropriate combination over study region, b) model domain:including/excluding Himalayas, c) vertical resolution: eight various increasing/decreasing vertical levels have been carried out to evaluate the storm track dependencies on these factors, d) domain size: and increasing (decreasing) the grid points of model domain in east-west direction shows that approximately 50-100 km track difference for every two points. Our results show that, the experiments including the Himalayas provide a better representation of cyclone track and speed. In order to reduce the computational time required to do such tremendous amount of experiment, we hypothesize to use statistical tools of experimental design which can involve all the factors that determine the cyclone tracks. A proper experimental design might provide unbiased results and also we might need less number of experiments.

Electrically-Active Convection in Tropical Easterly Waves and Implications for Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Atlantic and East Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leppert, Kenneth D., II; Petersen, Walter A.; Cecil, Daniel J.

2012-01-01

In this study, we investigate the characteristics of tropical easterly wave convection and the possible implications of convective structure on tropical cyclogenesis and intensification over the Atlantic Ocean and East Pacific using data from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Microwave Imager, Precipitation Radar (PR), and Lightning Imaging Sensor as well as infrared (IR) brightness temperature data from the NASA global-merged IR brightness temperature dataset. Easterly waves were partitioned into northerly, southerly, trough, and ridge phases based on the 700-hPa meridional wind from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset. Waves were subsequently divided according to whether they did or did not develop tropical cyclones (i.e., developing and nondeveloping, respectively), and developing waves were further subdivided according to development location. Finally, composites as a function of wave phase and category were created using the various datasets. Results suggest that the convective characteristics that best distinguish developing from nondeveloping waves vary according to where developing waves spawn tropical cyclones. For waves that developed a cyclone in the Atlantic basin, coverage by IR brightness temperatures .240 K and .210 K provide the best distinction between developing and nondeveloping waves. In contrast, several variables provide a significant distinction between nondeveloping waves and waves that develop cyclones over the East Pacific as these waves near their genesis location including IR threshold coverage, lightning flash rates, and low-level (<4.5 km) PR reflectivity. Results of this study may be used to help develop thresholds to better distinguish developing from nondeveloping waves and serve as another aid for tropical cyclogenesis forecasting.

33 CFR 164.72 - Navigational-safety equipment, charts or maps, and publications required on towing vessels.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

..., either a LORAN-C receiver or a satellite navigational system such as the Global Positioning System (GPS... the following navigational-safety equipment: (1) Marine radar. By August 2, 1997, a marine radar that meets the following applicable requirements: (i) For a vessel of less than 300 tons gross tonnage that...

Assessing the capability of high resolution climatic model experiments to simulate Mediterranean cyclonic tracks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatzaki, M.; Flocas, H. A.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Kostopoulou, E.; Kouroutzoglou, I.; Keay, K.; Simmonds, I.

2010-09-01

In this study, a comparison of a reanalysis driven simulation to a GCM driven simulation of a regional climate model is performed in order to assess the model's ability to capture the climatic characteristics of cyclonic tracks in the Mediterranean in the present climate. The ultimate scope of the study will be to perform a future climate projection related to cyclonic tracks in order to better understand and assess climate change in the Mediterranean. The climatology of the cyclonic tracks includes inter-monthly variations, classification of tracks according to their origin domain, dynamic and kinematic characteristics, as well as trend analysis. For this purpose, the ENEA model is employed based on PROTHEUS system composed of the RegCM atmospheric regional model and the MITgcm ocean model, coupled through the OASIS3 flux coupler. These model data became available through the EU Project CIRCE which aims to perform, for the first time, climate change projections with a realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea. Two experiments are employed; a) the ERA402 with lateral Boundary conditions from ERA40 for the 43-year period 1958-2000, and b) the EH5OM_20C3M where the lateral boundary conditions for the atmosphere (1951-2000) are taken from the ECHAM5-MPIOM 20c3m global simulation (run3) included in the IPCC-AR4. The identification and tracking of cyclones is performed with the aid of the Melbourne University algorithm (MS algorithm), according to the Lagrangian perspective. MS algorithm characterizes a cyclone only if a vorticity maximum could be connected with a local pressure minimum. This approach is considered to be crucial, since open lows are also incorporated into the storm life-cycle, preventing possible inappropriate time series breaks, if a temporary weakening to an open-low state occurs. The model experiments verify that considerable inter-monthly variations of track density occur in the Mediterranean region, consistent with previous studies. The classification of the tracks according to their origin domain show that the vast majority originate within the examined area itself. The study of the kinematic and dynamic parameters of tracks according to their origin demonstrate that deeper cyclones follow the SW track. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: M. Hatzaki would like to thank the Greek State Scholarships Foundation for financial support through the program of postdoctoral research. The support of EU-FP6 project CIRCE Integrated Project-Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment (http://www.circeproject.eu) for climate model data provision is also greatly acknowledged.

77 FR 27202 - 36(b)(1) Arms Sales Notification

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-09

... includes: Electronic Warfare Systems, Command, Control, Communication, Computers and Intelligence/Communication, Navigational and Identifications (C4I/CNI), Autonomic Logistics Global Support System (ALGS... Systems, Command, Control, Communication, Computers and Intelligence/Communication, Navigational and...

Two-dimensional measures of accuracy in navigational systems

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1987-03-31

Two-dimensional measures generally used to depict the accuracy of radiolocation and navigation systems are described in the report. Application to the NAVSTAR Global Positioning System (GPS) is considered, with a number of geometric illustrations.

Cyclone tolerance in new world arecaceae: biogeographic variation and abiotic natural selection.

PubMed

Griffith, M Patrick; Noblick, Larry R; Dowe, John L; Husby, Chad E; Calonje, Michael A

2008-10-01

Consistent abiotic factors can affect directional selection; cyclones are abiotic phenomena with near-discrete geographic limits. The current study investigates selective pressure of cyclones on plants at the species level, testing for possible natural selection. New World Arecaceae (palms) are used as a model system, as plants with monopodial, unbranched arborescent form are most directly affected by the selective pressure of wind load. Living specimens of known provenance grown at a common site were affected by the same cyclone. Data on percentage mortality were compiled and analysed in biogeographic and phylogenetic contexts. Palms of cyclone-prone provenance exhibited a much lower (one order of magnitude) range in cyclone tolerance, and significantly lower (P < 0.001) mean percentage mortality than collections from cyclone-free areas. Palms of cyclone-free provenance had much greater variation in tolerance, and significantly greater mean percentage mortality. A test for serial independence recovered no significant phylogenetic autocorrelation of percentage mortality. Variation in cyclone tolerance in New World Arecaceae correlates with biogeography, and is not confounded with phylogeny. These results suggest natural selection of cyclone tolerance in cyclone-prone areas.

Demonstration of coal reburning for cyclone boiler NO{sub x} control. Appendix, Book 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

Based on the industry need for a pilot-scale cyclone boiler simulator, Babcock Wilcox (B&W) designed, fabricated, and installed such a facility at its Alliance Research Center (ARC) in 1985. The project involved conversion of an existing pulverized coal-fired facility to be cyclone-firing capable. Additionally, convective section tube banks were installed in the upper furnace in order to simulate a typical boiler convection pass. The small boiler simulator (SBS) is designed to simulate most fireside aspects of full-size utility boilers such as combustion and flue gas emissions characteristics, fireside deposition, etc. Prior to the design of the pilot-scale cyclone boiler simulator,more » the various cyclone boiler types were reviewed in order to identify the inherent cyclone boiler design characteristics which are applicable to the majority of these boilers. The cyclone boiler characteristics that were reviewed include NO{sub x} emissions, furnace exit gas temperature (FEGT) carbon loss, and total furnace residence time. Previous pilot-scale cyclone-fired furnace experience identified the following concerns: (1) Operability of a small cyclone furnace (e.g., continuous slag tapping capability). (2) The optimum cyclone(s) configuration for the pilot-scale unit. (3) Compatibility of NO{sub x} levels, carbon burnout, cyclone ash carryover to the convection pass, cyclone temperature, furnace residence time, and FEGT.« less

Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones on the Great Barrier Reef and its ecological importance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolff, Nicholas H.; Wong, Aaron; Vitolo, Renato; Stolberg, Kristin; Anthony, Kenneth R. N.; Mumby, Peter J.

2016-06-01

Tropical cyclones have been a major cause of reef coral decline during recent decades, including on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). While cyclones are a natural element of the disturbance regime of coral reefs, the role of temporal clustering has previously been overlooked. Here, we examine the consequences of different types of cyclone temporal distributions (clustered, stochastic or regular) on reef ecosystems. We subdivided the GBR into 14 adjoining regions, each spanning roughly 300 km, and quantified both the rate and clustering of cyclones using dispersion statistics. To interpret the consequences of such cyclone variability for coral reef health, we used a model of observed coral population dynamics. Results showed that clustering occurs on the margins of the cyclone belt, being strongest in the southern reefs and the far northern GBR, which also has the lowest cyclone rate. In the central GBR, where rates were greatest, cyclones had a relatively regular temporal pattern. Modelled dynamics of the dominant coral genus, Acropora, suggest that the long-term average cover might be more than 13 % greater (in absolute cover units) under a clustered cyclone regime compared to stochastic or regular regimes. Thus, not only does cyclone clustering vary significantly along the GBR but such clustering is predicted to have a marked, and management-relevant, impact on the status of coral populations. Additionally, we use our regional clustering and rate results to sample from a library of over 7000 synthetic cyclone tracks for the GBR. This allowed us to provide robust reef-scale maps of annual cyclone frequency and cyclone impacts on Acropora. We conclude that assessments of coral reef vulnerability need to account for both spatial and temporal cyclone distributions.

Arms Control and Missile Defense: Explaining Success and Failure in U.S.-Russian Cooperation

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

Security Service) GLCM Ground-Launched Cruise Missile GLONASS Global’naya Navigatsionnaya Sputnikovaya Sistema , or Global Navigation Satellite System...threat to us will only grow. We will be pulled into another round of the arms race that is beyond our capabilities . . . because we are already at...Global’naya Navigatsionnaya Sputnikovaya Sistema , or Global Navigation Satellite System).”111 Based on his review of events in Georgia, Vladimir

The dynamical link between deep Atlantic extratropical cyclones and intense Mediterranean cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raveh-Rubin, Shira; Flaounas, Emmanouil

2017-04-01

Breaking of atmospheric Rossby waves has been previously shown to lead to intense Mediterranean cyclones, one of the most prominent environmental risks in the region. Wave breaking may be enhanced by warm conveyor belts (WCBs) associated with extratropical cyclones developing over the Atlantic Ocean. More precisely, WCBs supply the upper troposphere with air masses of low potential vorticity that, in turn, amplify ridges and thus favor Rossby wave breaking. This study identifies and validates the relevance of the mechanism that connects Atlantic cyclones and intense mature Mediterranean cyclones through ridge amplification by WCBs. Using ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalyses and a feature-based approach, we analyze the 200 most intense Mediterranean cyclones for the years 1989-2008 and show that their majority (181 cases) is indeed associated with this mechanism upstream. Results show that multiple Atlantic cyclones are associated with each case of intense Mediterranean cyclone downstream. Moreover, the associated Atlantic cyclones are particularly deep compared to climatology.

Libration Point Navigation Concepts Supporting the Vision for Space Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, J. Russell; Folta, David C.; Moreau, Michael C.; Quinn, David A.

2004-01-01

This work examines the autonomous navigation accuracy achievable for a lunar exploration trajectory from a translunar libration point lunar navigation relay satellite, augmented by signals from the Global Positioning System (GPS). We also provide a brief analysis comparing the libration point relay to lunar orbit relay architectures, and discuss some issues of GPS usage for cis-lunar trajectories.

Large-scale dynamics associated with clustering of extratropical cyclones affecting Western Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinto, Joaquim G.; Gómara, Iñigo; Masato, Giacomo; Dacre, Helen F.; Woollings, Tim; Caballero, Rodrigo

2015-04-01

Some recent winters in Western Europe have been characterized by the occurrence of multiple extratropical cyclones following a similar path. The occurrence of such cyclone clusters leads to large socio-economic impacts due to damaging winds, storm surges, and floods. Recent studies have statistically characterized the clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe and hypothesized potential physical mechanisms responsible for their formation. Here we analyze 4 months characterized by multiple cyclones over Western Europe (February 1990, January 1993, December 1999, and January 2007). The evolution of the eddy driven jet stream, Rossby wave-breaking, and upstream/downstream cyclone development are investigated to infer the role of the large-scale flow and to determine if clustered cyclones are related to each other. Results suggest that optimal conditions for the occurrence of cyclone clusters are provided by a recurrent extension of an intensified eddy driven jet toward Western Europe lasting at least 1 week. Multiple Rossby wave-breaking occurrences on both the poleward and equatorward flanks of the jet contribute to the development of these anomalous large-scale conditions. The analysis of the daily weather charts reveals that upstream cyclone development (secondary cyclogenesis, where new cyclones are generated on the trailing fronts of mature cyclones) is strongly related to cyclone clustering, with multiple cyclones developing on a single jet streak. The present analysis permits a deeper understanding of the physical reasons leading to the occurrence of cyclone families over the North Atlantic, enabling a better estimation of the associated cumulative risk over Europe.

Diabatic processes and the evolution of two contrasting extratropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Methven, John; Martinez-Alvarado, Oscar; Gray, Suzanne

2017-04-01

Extratropical cyclones are typically weaker and less frequent in summer as a result of differences in the background state flow and diabatic processes with respect to other seasons. Two extratropical cyclones were observed in summer 2012 with a research aircraft during the DIAMET (DIAbatic influences on Mesoscale structure in ExTratropical storms) field campaign. The first cyclone deepened only down to 995 hPa; the second cyclone deepened down to 978 hPa and formed a potential vorticity (PV) tower, a frequent signature of intense cyclones. The cyclones were analyzed through numerical simulations incorporating tracers for the effects of diabatic processes on potential temperature and PV. It was found that the observed maximum vapor flux in the stronger cyclone was twice as strong as in the weaker cyclone; the water vapor mass flow along the warm conveyor belt of the stronger cyclone was over half that typical in winter even though the flow was weaker. Did the greater water transport and latent heat release associated with condensation result in the greater circulation in the PV tower case? A cyclone-centred integral framework is introduced relating the tracers with cross-isentropic mass transport and circulation around the cyclone. It is shown that the circulation increases much more slowly than the amplitude of the diabatically-generated PV tower at its centre. This effect is explained using the PV impermeability theorem and the influence of diabatic heating on circulation around a cyclone is shown to scale with Rossby number. The implication is that the stronger a cyclone becomes (larger Rossby number), the stronger the influence of latent heating on circulation.

High accuracy autonomous navigation using the global positioning system (GPS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Truong, Son H.; Hart, Roger C.; Shoan, Wendy C.; Wood, Terri; Long, Anne C.; Oza, Dipak H.; Lee, Taesul

1997-01-01

The application of global positioning system (GPS) technology to the improvement of the accuracy and economy of spacecraft navigation, is reported. High-accuracy autonomous navigation algorithms are currently being qualified in conjunction with the GPS attitude determination flyer (GADFLY) experiment for the small satellite technology initiative Lewis spacecraft. Preflight performance assessments indicated that these algorithms are able to provide a real time total position accuracy of better than 10 m and a velocity accuracy of better than 0.01 m/s, with selective availability at typical levels. It is expected that the position accuracy will be increased to 2 m if corrections are provided by the GPS wide area augmentation system.

Advancing Global Health - The Need for (Better) Social Science Comment on "Navigating Between Stealth Advocacy and Unconscious Dogmatism: The Challenge of Researching the Norms, Politics and Power of Global Health".

PubMed

Hanefeld, Johanna

2016-02-06

In his perspective "Navigating between stealth advocacy and unconscious dogmatism: the challenge of researching the norms, politics and power of global health," Ooms argues that actions taken in the field of global health are dependent not only on available resources, but on the normative premise that guides how these resources are spent. This comment sets out how the application of a predominately biomedical positivist research tradition in global health, has potentially limited understanding of the value judgements underlying decisions in the field. To redress this critical social science, including health policy analysis has much to offer, to the field of global health including on questions of governance. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

A Self-Tuning Kalman Filter for Autonomous Navigation using the Global Positioning System (GPS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Truong, S. H.

1999-01-01

Most navigation systems currently operated by NASA are ground-based, and require extensive support to produce accurate results. Recently developed systems that use Kalman filter and GPS data for orbit determination greatly reduce dependency on ground support, and have potential to provide significant economies for NASA spacecraft navigation. These systems, however, still rely on manual tuning from analysts. A sophisticated neuro-fuzzy component fully integrated with the flight navigation system can perform the self-tuning capability for the Kalman filter and help the navigation system recover from estimation errors in real time.

Autonomous Relative Navigation for Formation-Flying Satellites Using GPS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gramling, Cheryl; Carpenter, J. Russell; Long, Anne; Kelbel, David; Lee, Taesul

2000-01-01

The Goddard Space Flight Center is currently developing advanced spacecraft systems to provide autonomous navigation and control of formation flyers. This paper discusses autonomous relative navigation performance for a formation of four eccentric, medium-altitude Earth-orbiting satellites using Global Positioning System (GPS) Standard Positioning Service (SPS) and "GPS-like " intersatellite measurements. The performance of several candidate relative navigation approaches is evaluated. These analyses indicate that an autonomous relative navigation position accuracy of 1meter root-mean-square can be achieved by differencing high-accuracy filtered solutions if only measurements from common GPS space vehicles are used in the independently estimated solutions.

Climatology and Impact of Polar Lows in the North Atlantic: Present and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Clio; Haukeland, Magnus; Spengler, Thomas

2016-04-01

Polar lows are maritime cyclones occurring during cold air outbreaks in high latitudes. We use the Melbourne University algorithm to detect and track polar lows in the North Atlantic. The algorithm is applied to ERA-Interim reanalyses as well as high resolution (25 and 50 km) global climate model data from GFDL for present and future climates. Cyclone track densities for the GFDL present climate and the ERA-Interim reanalyses compare well for the occurrence of present day polar lows. We also present cyclone track densities for future climates under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the early and late 21st century. Polar lows mainly form close to Svalbard but also along the coast of Greenland, in the Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea. We present the shifts in location and intensity of polar lows for future climates and discuss potential reasons for these changes. During their lifetime, they travel several 100 kilometres and can reach the Norwegian coast as well as off-shore infrastructures. Therefore we also assess the difference between current and future occurrence of polar lows reaching the coast of Norway as well as areas with oil platforms and active fisheries. This analysis pinpoints the exposure to current and future impacts of polar lows on these socio-economic assets.

The effects of natural disturbances, reef state, and herbivorous fish densities on ciguatera poisoning in Rarotonga, southern Cook Islands.

PubMed

Rongo, Teina; van Woesik, Robert

2013-03-15

Ciguatera poisoning is a critical public-health issue among Pacific island nations. Accurately predicting ciguatera outbreaks has become a priority, particularly in Rarotonga in the southern Cook Islands, which has reported the highest incidence of ciguatera poisoning globally. Since 2006, however, cases of ciguatera poisoning have declined, and in 2011 ciguatera cases were the lowest in nearly 20 years. Here we examined the relationships between cases of ciguatera poisoning, from 1994 to 2011, and: (i) coral cover, used as a proxy of reef state, (ii) the densities of herbivorous fishes, and (iii) reef disturbances. We found that coral cover was not a good predictor of cases of ciguatera poisoning, but high densities of the herbivorous fish Ctenochaetus striatus and reef disturbances were both strong predictors of ciguatera poisoning. Yet these two predictors were correlated, because the densities of C. striatus increased only after major cyclones had disturbed the reefs. Since 2006, the number of cyclones has decreased considerably in Rarotonga, because of the climatic shift toward the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We suggest that fewer cyclones have led to decreases in both the densities of C. striatus and of the number of reported cases of ciguatera poisoning in Rarotonga. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decadal Variation of the Number of El Nino Onsets and El Nino-Related Months and Estimating the Likelihood of El Nino Onset in a Warming World

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2009-01-01

Examination of the decadal variation of the number of El Nino onsets and El Nino-related months for the interval 1950-2008 clearly shows that the variation is better explained as one expressing normal fluctuation and not one related to global warming. Comparison of the recurrence periods for El Nino onsets against event durations for moderate/strong El Nino events results in a statistically important relationship that allows for the possible prediction of the onset for the next anticipated El Nino event. Because the last known El Nino was a moderate event of short duration (6 months), having onset in August 2006, unless it is a statistical outlier, one expects the next onset of El Nino probably in the latter half of 2009, with peak following in November 2009-January 2010. If true, then initial early extended forecasts of frequencies of tropical cyclones for the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season probably should be revised slightly downward from near average-to-above average numbers to near average-to-below average numbers of tropical cyclones in 2009, especially as compared to averages since 1995, the beginning of the current high-activity interval for tropical cyclone activity.

The dynamical structure of intense Mediterranean cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flaounas, Emmanouil; Raveh-Rubin, Shira; Wernli, Heini; Drobinski, Philippe; Bastin, Sophie

2015-05-01

This paper presents and analyzes the three-dimensional dynamical structure of intense Mediterranean cyclones. The analysis is based on a composite approach of the 200 most intense cyclones during the period 1989-2008 that have been identified and tracked using the output of a coupled ocean-atmosphere regional simulation with 20 km horizontal grid spacing and 3-hourly output. It is shown that the most intense Mediterranean cyclones have a common baroclinic life cycle with a potential vorticity (PV) streamer associated with an upper-level cyclonic Rossby wave breaking, which precedes cyclogenesis in the region and triggers baroclinic instability. It is argued that this common baroclinic life cycle is due to the strongly horizontally sheared environment in the Mediterranean basin, on the poleward flank of the quasi-persistent subtropical jet. The composite life cycle of the cyclones is further analyzed considering the evolution of key atmospheric elements as potential temperature and PV, as well as the cyclones' thermodynamic profiles and rainfall. It is shown that most intense Mediterranean cyclones are associated with warm conveyor belts and dry air intrusions, similar to those of other strong extratropical cyclones, but of rather small scale. Before cyclones reach their mature stage, the streamer's role is crucial to advect moist and warm air towards the cyclones center. These dynamical characteristics, typical for very intense extratropical cyclones in the main storm track regions, are also valid for these Mediterranean cases that have features that are visually similar to tropical cyclones.

Paradigms for Tropical Cyclone Intensification

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-03-01

a large number of hurricanes using the Global Positioning System dropwindsondes released from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and...energy source for all atmospheric and oceanic motions. 16http://www.comet.ucar.edu 48 Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal 64:1 March...appears to be a feature of other rapidly-rotat- ing atmospheric vortices such as tornadoes, waterspouts and dust devils and is manifest as a type of

Demonstrating S-NPP VIIRS Products with the Naval Research Laboratory R&D Websites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuciauskas, A. P.; Hawkins, J.; Solbrig, J.; Bankert, R.; Richardson, K.; Surratt, M.; Miller, S. D.; Kent, J.

2014-12-01

The Naval Research Laboratory, Marine Meteorology Division in Monterey, CA (NRL-MRY) has been developing and providing the global community with VIIRS-derived state of the art image products on three operational websites: · NexSat: www.nrlmry.navy.mil/NEXSAT.html · VIIRS Page: www.nrlmry.navy.mil/VIIRS.html · Tropical Cyclone Page: www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html These user-friendly websites are accessed by the global public with a daily average of 250,000 and 310,000 web hits for NexSat and Tropical Cyclone websites, respectively. Users consist of operational, research, scientific field campaigns, academia, and weather enthusiasts. The websites also contain ancillary products from 5 geostationary and 27 low earth orbiting sensors, ranging from visible through microwave channels. NRL-MRY also leverages the NRL global and regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models for assessing cloud top measurements and synoptic overlays. With collaborations at CIMSS' Direct Readout site along with the AFWA IDPS-FNMOC and NOAA IDPS portals, a robust component to our websites are product latencies that typically satisfy operational time constraints necessary for planning purposes. Given these resources, NRL-MRY acquires ~2TBytes of data and produces 100,000 image products on a daily basis. In partnership with the COMET program, our product tutorials contain simple and graphically enhanced descriptions that accommodate users ranging from basic to advanced understanding of satellite meteorology. This presentation will provide an overview of our website functionality: animations, co-registered formats, and Google Earth viewing. Through imagery, we will also demonstrate the superiority of VIIRS against its heritage sensor counterparts. A focal aspect will be the demonstration of the VIIRS Day Night Band (DNB) in detecting nighttime features such as wildfires, volcanic ash, Arctic sea ice, and tropical cyclones. We also plan to illustrate how NexSat and VIIRS websites demonstrate CAL/VAL ocean color activity. We will also discuss outreach and training efforts designed for research and operational applications. Our goal is to encourage the audience to add our URLs into their suite of web-based satellite resources.

Cloudsat tropical cyclone database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tourville, Natalie D.

CloudSat (CS), the first 94 GHz spaceborne cloud profiling radar (CPR), launched in 2006 to study the vertical distribution of clouds. Not only are CS observations revealing inner vertical cloud details of water and ice globally but CS overpasses of tropical cyclones (TC's) are providing a new and exciting opportunity to study the vertical structure of these storm systems. CS TC observations are providing first time vertical views of TC's and demonstrate a unique way to observe TC structure remotely from space. Since December 2009, CS has intersected every globally named TC (within 1000 km of storm center) for a total of 5,278 unique overpasses of tropical systems (disturbance, tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane/typhoon/cyclone (HTC)). In conjunction with the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), each CS TC overpass is processed into a data file containing observational data from the afternoon constellation of satellites (A-TRAIN), Navy's Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System Model (NOGAPS), European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model and best track storm data. This study will describe the components and statistics of the CS TC database, present case studies of CS TC overpasses with complementary A-TRAIN observations and compare average reflectivity stratifications of TC's across different atmospheric regimes (wind shear, SST, latitude, maximum wind speed and basin). Average reflectivity stratifications reveal that characteristics in each basin vary from year to year and are dependent upon eye overpasses of HTC strength storms and ENSO phase. West Pacific (WPAC) basin storms are generally larger in size (horizontally and vertically) and have greater values of reflectivity at a predefined height than all other basins. Storm structure at higher latitudes expands horizontally. Higher vertical wind shear (≥ 9.5 m/s) reduces cloud top height (CTH) and the intensity of precipitation cores, especially in HTC strength storms. Average zero and ten dBZ height thresholds confirm WPAC storms loft precipitation sized particles higher into the atmosphere than in other basins. Two CS eye overpasses (32 hours apart) of a weakening Typhoon Nida in 2009 reveal the collapse of precipitation cores, warm core anomaly and upper tropospheric ice water content (IWC) under steady moderate shear conditions.

The structure and rainfall features of Tropical Cyclone Rammasun (2002)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Leiming; Duan, Yihong; Zhu, Yongti

2004-12-01

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data [TRMM Microwave Imager/Precipitation Radar/Visible and Infrared Scanner (TMI/PR/VIRS)] and a numerical model are used to investigate the structure and rainfall features of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Rammasun (2002). Based on the analysis of TRMM data, which are diagnosed together with NCEP/AVN [Aviation (global model)] analysis data, some typical features of TC structure and rainfall are preliminary discovered. Since the limitations of TRMM data are considered for their time resolution and coverage, the world observed by TRMM at several moments cannot be taken as the representation of the whole period of the TC lifecycle, therefore the picture should be reproduced by a numerical model of high quality. To better understand the structure and rainfall features of TC Rammasun, a numerical simulation is carried out with mesoscale model MM5 in which the validations have been made with the data of TRMM and NCEP/AVN analysis.

Wind and wave extremes over the world oceans from very large ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breivik, Øyvind; Aarnes, Ole Johan; Abdalla, Saleh; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Janssen, Peter A. E. M.

2014-07-01

Global return values of marine wind speed and significant wave height are estimated from very large aggregates of archived ensemble forecasts at +240 h lead time. Long lead time ensures that the forecasts represent independent draws from the model climate. Compared with ERA-Interim, a reanalysis, the ensemble yields higher return estimates for both wind speed and significant wave height. Confidence intervals are much tighter due to the large size of the data set. The period (9 years) is short enough to be considered stationary even with climate change. Furthermore, the ensemble is large enough for nonparametric 100 year return estimates to be made from order statistics. These direct return estimates compare well with extreme value estimates outside areas with tropical cyclones. Like any method employing modeled fields, it is sensitive to tail biases in the numerical model, but we find that the biases are moderate outside areas with tropical cyclones.

Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the North Pacific Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.

1997-01-01

Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations for an eleven year period. These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Pacific Ocean total rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most important. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from passive microwave satellite observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are converted to monthly rainfall amounts and then compared to those for non-tropical cyclone systems. The main results of this study indicate that: 1) tropical cyclones contribute 7% of the rainfall to the entire domain of the North Pacific during the tropical cyclone season and 12%, 3%, and 4% when the study area is limited to, respectively, the western, central, and eastern third of the ocean; 2) the maxima in tropical cyclone rainfall are poleward (5 deg to 10 deg latitude depending on longitude) of the maxima in non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute a maximum of 30% northeast of the Philippine Islands and 40% of the lower Baja California coast; 4) in the western North Pacific, the tropical cyclone rainfall lags the total rainfall by approximately two months and shows seasonal latitudinal variation following the ITCZ; and 5) in general, tropical cyclone rainfall is enhanced during the El Nino years by warm SSTs in the eastern North Pacific and by the monsoon trough in the western and central North Pacific.

Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the North Pacific Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.

2000-10-01

Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations for an 11-yr period. These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and interannual distribution of the North Pacific Ocean total rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most important.To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from passive microwave satellite observations within 444-km radius of the center of those North Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain-rate observations are converted to monthly rainfall amounts and then compared with those for nontropical cyclone systems.The main results of this study indicate that 1) tropical cyclones contribute 7% of the rainfall to the entire domain of the North Pacific during the tropical cyclone season and 12%, 3%, and 4% when the study area is limited to, respectively, the western, central, and eastern third of the ocean; 2) the maximum tropical cyclone rainfall is poleward (5°-10° latitude depending on longitude) of the maximum nontropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute a maximum of 30% northeast of the Philippine Islands and 40% off the lower Baja California coast; 4) in the western North Pacific, the tropical cyclone rainfall lags the total rainfall by approximately two months and shows seasonal latitudinal variation following the Intertropical Convergence Zone; and 5) in general, tropical cyclone rainfall is enhanced during the El Niño years by warm SSTs in the eastern North Pacific and by the monsoon trough in the western and central North Pacific.

Cyclone Activity in the Arctic From an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models (Arctic CORDEX)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akperov, Mirseid; Rinke, Annette; Mokhov, Igor I.; Matthes, Heidrun; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Adakudlu, Muralidhar; Cassano, John; Christensen, Jens H.; Dembitskaya, Mariya A.; Dethloff, Klaus; Fettweis, Xavier; Glisan, Justin; Gutjahr, Oliver; Heinemann, Günther; Koenigk, Torben; Koldunov, Nikolay V.; Laprise, René; Mottram, Ruth; Nikiéma, Oumarou; Scinocca, John F.; Sein, Dmitry; Sobolowski, Stefan; Winger, Katja; Zhang, Wenxin

2018-03-01

The ability of state-of-the-art regional climate models to simulate cyclone activity in the Arctic is assessed based on an ensemble of 13 simulations from 11 models from the Arctic-CORDEX initiative. Some models employ large-scale spectral nudging techniques. Cyclone characteristics simulated by the ensemble are compared with the results forced by four reanalyses (ERA-Interim, National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2, and Japan Meteorological Agency-Japanese 55-year reanalysis) in winter and summer for 1981-2010 period. In addition, we compare cyclone statistics between ERA-Interim and the Arctic System Reanalysis reanalyses for 2000-2010. Biases in cyclone frequency, intensity, and size over the Arctic are also quantified. Variations in cyclone frequency across the models are partly attributed to the differences in cyclone frequency over land. The variations across the models are largest for small and shallow cyclones for both seasons. A connection between biases in the zonal wind at 200 hPa and cyclone characteristics is found for both seasons. Most models underestimate zonal wind speed in both seasons, which likely leads to underestimation of cyclone mean depth and deep cyclone frequency in the Arctic. In general, the regional climate models are able to represent the spatial distribution of cyclone characteristics in the Arctic but models that employ large-scale spectral nudging show a better agreement with ERA-Interim reanalysis than the rest of the models. Trends also exhibit the benefits of nudging. Models with spectral nudging are able to reproduce the cyclone trends, whereas most of the nonnudged models fail to do so. However, the cyclone characteristics and trends are sensitive to the choice of nudged variables.

Airborne Observation of Ocean Surface Roughness Variations Using a Combination of Microwave Radiometer and Reflectometer Systems: The Second Virginia Offshore (Virgo II) Experiment

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-03-06

from scattered satellite transmissions, was first demonstrated using Global Navigation Satellite System ( GNSS ) reflections. Recently, reflectometry has...Earth’s atmosphere. The 2012 GNSS +R workshop provided an opportunity for engineers and Earth scientists to assess the state of the art, demonstrate new...bi-static radar technique utilizes signals of opportunity transmitted from existing L-band Global Navigation Satellite Systems ( GNSS ), including GPS

Class D Management Implementation Approach of the First Orbital Mission of the Earth Venture Series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wells, James E.; Scherrer, John; Law, Richard; Bonniksen, Chris

2013-01-01

A key element of the National Research Council's Earth Science and Applications Decadal Survey called for the creation of the Venture Class line of low-cost research and application missions within NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration). One key component of the architecture chosen by NASA within the Earth Venture line is a series of self-contained stand-alone spaceflight science missions called "EV-Mission". The first mission chosen for this competitively selected, cost and schedule capped, Principal Investigator-led opportunity is the CYclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS). As specified in the defining Announcement of Opportunity, the Principal Investigator is held responsible for successfully achieving the science objectives of the selected mission and the management approach that he/she chooses to obtain those results has a significant amount of freedom as long as it meets the intent of key NASA guidance like NPR 7120.5 and 7123. CYGNSS is classified under NPR 7120.5E guidance as a Category 3 (low priority, low cost) mission and carries a Class D risk classification (low priority, high risk) per NPR 8705.4. As defined in the NPR guidance, Class D risk classification allows for a relatively broad range of implementation strategies. The management approach that will be utilized on CYGNSS is a streamlined implementation that starts with a higher risk tolerance posture at NASA and that philosophy flows all the way down to the individual part level.

Integrating and Visualizing Tropical Cyclone Data Using the Real Time Mission Monitor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, H. Michael; Blakeslee, Richard; Conover, Helen; Hall, John; He, Yubin; Regner, Kathryn

2009-01-01

The Real Time Mission Monitor (RTMM) is a visualization and information system that fuses multiple Earth science data sources, to enable real time decision-making for airborne and ground validation experiments. Developed at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, RTMM is a situational awareness, decision-support system that integrates satellite imagery, radar, surface and airborne instrument data sets, model output parameters, lightning location observations, aircraft navigation data, soundings, and other applicable Earth science data sets. The integration and delivery of this information is made possible using data acquisition systems, network communication links, network server resources, and visualizations through the Google Earth virtual globe application. RTMM is extremely valuable for optimizing individual Earth science airborne field experiments. Flight planners, scientists, and managers appreciate the contributions that RTMM makes to their flight projects. A broad spectrum of interdisciplinary scientists used RTMM during field campaigns including the hurricane-focused 2006 NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA), 2007 NOAA-NASA Aerosonde Hurricane Noel flight, 2007 Tropical Composition, Cloud, and Climate Coupling (TC4), plus a soil moisture (SMAP-VEX) and two arctic research experiments (ARCTAS) in 2008. Improving and evolving RTMM is a continuous process. RTMM recently integrated the Waypoint Planning Tool, a Java-based application that enables aircraft mission scientists to easily develop a pre-mission flight plan through an interactive point-and-click interface. Individual flight legs are automatically calculated "on the fly". The resultant flight plan is then immediately posted to the Google Earth-based RTMM for interested scientists to view the planned flight track and subsequently compare it to the actual real time flight progress. We are planning additional capabilities to RTMM including collaborations with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in the joint development of a Tropical Cyclone Integrated Data Exchange and Analysis System (TC IDEAS) which will serve as a web portal for access to tropical cyclone data, visualizations and model output.

Navigation Architecture For A Space Mobile Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valdez, Jennifer E.; Ashman, Benjamin; Gramling, Cheryl; Heckler, Gregory W.; Carpenter, Russell

2016-01-01

The Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) Augmentation Service for Satellites (TASS) is a proposed beacon service to provide a global, space-based GPS augmentation service based on the NASA Global Differential GPS (GDGPS) System. The TASS signal will be tied to the GPS time system and usable as an additional ranging and Doppler radiometric source. Additionally, it will provide data vital to autonomous navigation in the near Earth regime, including space weather information, TDRS ephemerides, Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP), and forward commanding capability. TASS benefits include enhancing situational awareness, enabling increased autonomy, and providing near real-time command access for user platforms. As NASA Headquarters Space Communication and Navigation Office (SCaN) begins to move away from a centralized network architecture and towards a Space Mobile Network (SMN) that allows for user initiated services, autonomous navigation will be a key part of such a system. This paper explores how a TASS beacon service enables the Space Mobile Networking paradigm, what a typical user platform would require, and provides an in-depth analysis of several navigation scenarios and operations concepts.

6TH Saint Petersburg International Conference on Integrated Navigation Systems. (6eme Conference Internationale de Saint Petersbourg sur les Systemes de Navigation Integree)

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-10-01

Kharisov V.N., Perov A.I., Boldin V.A. (editors). 1977. The global satelllite radio-navigational system 20. Wu W.-R. Target tracking with glint...the coordinates of the OP techniques for their searching and extracting in deep seas. These techniques. have yielded Researches have shown that, an OP

Differential GNSS and Vision-Based Tracking to Improve Navigation Performance in Cooperative Multi-UAV Systems.

PubMed

Vetrella, Amedeo Rodi; Fasano, Giancarmine; Accardo, Domenico; Moccia, Antonio

2016-12-17

Autonomous navigation of micro-UAVs is typically based on the integration of low cost Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers and Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS)-based inertial and magnetic sensors to stabilize and control the flight. The resulting navigation performance in terms of position and attitude accuracy may not suffice for other mission needs, such as the ones relevant to fine sensor pointing. In this framework, this paper presents a cooperative UAV navigation algorithm that allows a chief vehicle, equipped with inertial and magnetic sensors, a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver, and a vision system, to improve its navigation performance (in real time or in the post processing phase) exploiting formation flying deputy vehicles equipped with GPS receivers. The focus is set on outdoor environments and the key concept is to exploit differential GPS among vehicles and vision-based tracking (DGPS/Vision) to build a virtual additional navigation sensor whose information is then integrated in a sensor fusion algorithm based on an Extended Kalman Filter. The developed concept and processing architecture are described, with a focus on DGPS/Vision attitude determination algorithm. Performance assessment is carried out on the basis of both numerical simulations and flight tests. In the latter ones, navigation estimates derived from the DGPS/Vision approach are compared with those provided by the onboard autopilot system of a customized quadrotor. The analysis shows the potential of the developed approach, mainly deriving from the possibility to exploit magnetic- and inertial-independent accurate attitude information.

Clusters of cyclones encircling Jupiter's poles.

PubMed

Adriani, A; Mura, A; Orton, G; Hansen, C; Altieri, F; Moriconi, M L; Rogers, J; Eichstädt, G; Momary, T; Ingersoll, A P; Filacchione, G; Sindoni, G; Tabataba-Vakili, F; Dinelli, B M; Fabiano, F; Bolton, S J; Connerney, J E P; Atreya, S K; Lunine, J I; Tosi, F; Migliorini, A; Grassi, D; Piccioni, G; Noschese, R; Cicchetti, A; Plainaki, C; Olivieri, A; O'Neill, M E; Turrini, D; Stefani, S; Sordini, R; Amoroso, M

2018-03-07

The familiar axisymmetric zones and belts that characterize Jupiter's weather system at lower latitudes give way to pervasive cyclonic activity at higher latitudes. Two-dimensional turbulence in combination with the Coriolis β-effect (that is, the large meridionally varying Coriolis force on the giant planets of the Solar System) produces alternating zonal flows. The zonal flows weaken with rising latitude so that a transition between equatorial jets and polar turbulence on Jupiter can occur. Simulations with shallow-water models of giant planets support this transition by producing both alternating flows near the equator and circumpolar cyclones near the poles. Jovian polar regions are not visible from Earth owing to Jupiter's low axial tilt, and were poorly characterized by previous missions because the trajectories of these missions did not venture far from Jupiter's equatorial plane. Here we report that visible and infrared images obtained from above each pole by the Juno spacecraft during its first five orbits reveal persistent polygonal patterns of large cyclones. In the north, eight circumpolar cyclones are observed about a single polar cyclone; in the south, one polar cyclone is encircled by five circumpolar cyclones. Cyclonic circulation is established via time-lapse imagery obtained over intervals ranging from 20 minutes to 4 hours. Although migration of cyclones towards the pole might be expected as a consequence of the Coriolis β-effect, by which cyclonic vortices naturally drift towards the rotational pole, the configuration of the cyclones is without precedent on other planets (including Saturn's polar hexagonal features). The manner in which the cyclones persist without merging and the process by which they evolve to their current configuration are unknown.

Extreme storm activity in North Atlantic and European region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vyazilova, N.

2010-09-01

The extreme storm activity study over North Atlantic and Europe includes the analyses of extreme cyclone (track number, integral cyclonic intensity) and extreme storm (track number) during winter and summer seasons in the regions: 1) 55°N-80N, 50°W-70°E; 2) 30°N-55°N, 50°W-70°E. Extreme cyclones were selected based on cyclone centre pressure (P<=970 mbar). Extreme storms were selected from extreme cyclones based on wind velocity on 925 mbar. The Bofort scala was used for this goal. Integral cyclonic intensity (for region) includes the calculation cyclone centers number and sum of MSLP anomalies in cyclone centers. The analyses based on automated cyclone tracking algorithm, 6-hourly MSLP and wind data (u and v on 925 gPa) from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses from January 1948 to March 2010. The comparision of mean, calculated for every ten years, had shown, that in polar region extreme cyclone and storm track number, and integral cyclonic intensity gradually increases and have maximum during last years (as for summer, as for winter season). Every ten years means for summer season are more then for winter season, as for polar, as for tropical region. Means (ten years) for tropical region are significance less then for polar region.

Severe Autumn storms in future Western Europe with a warmer Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baatsen, Michiel; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Van Delden, Aarnout J.; de Vries, Hylke

2015-08-01

Simulations with a very high resolution (~25 km) global climate model indicate that more severe Autumn storms will impact Europe in a warmer future climate. The observed increase is mainly attributed to storms with a tropical origin, especially in the later part of the twentyfirst century. As their genesis region expands, tropical cyclones become more intense and their chances of reaching Europe increase. This paper investigates the properties and evolution of such storms and clarifies the future changes. The studied tropical cyclones feature a typical evolution of tropical development, extratropical transition and a re-intensification. A reduction of the transit area between regions of tropical and extratropical cyclogenesis increases the probability of re-intensification. Many of the modelled storms exhibit hybrid properties in a considerable part of their life cycle during which they exhibit the hazards of both tropical and extratropical systems. In addition to tropical cyclones, other systems such as cold core extratropical storms mainly originating over the Gulf Stream region also increasingly impact Western Europe. Despite their different history, all of the studied storms have one striking similarity: they form a warm seclusion. The structure, intensity and frequency of storms in the present climate are compared to observations using the MERRA and IBTrACS datasets. Damaging winds associated with the occurrence of a sting jet are observed in a large fraction of the cyclones during their final stage. Baroclinic instability is of great importance for the (re-)intensification of the storms. Furthermore, so-called atmospheric rivers providing tropical air prove to be vital for the intensification through diabatic heating and will increase considerably in strength in the future, as will the associated flooding risks.

Navigation Flight Test Results from the Low Power Transceiver Communications and Navigation Demonstration on Shuttle (CANDOS) Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haas, Lin; Massey, Christopher; Baraban, Dmitri

2003-01-01

This paper presents the Global Positioning System (GPS) navigation results from the Communications and Navigation Demonstration on Shuttle (CANDOS) experiment flown on STS-107. This experiment was the initial flight of a Low Power Transceiver (LPT) that featured high capacity space- space and space-ground communications and GPS- based navigation capabilities. The LPT also hosted the GPS Enhanced Orbit Determination Experiment (GEODE) orbit determination software. All CANDOS test data were recovered during the mission using LPT communications links via the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS). An overview of the LPT s navigation software and the GPS experiment timeline is presented, along with comparisons of test results to the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) real-time ground navigation vectors and Best Estimate of Trajectory (BET).

Relative Navigation of Formation-Flying Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Long, Anne; Kelbel, David; Lee, Taesul; Leung, Dominic; Carpenter, J. Russell; Grambling, Cheryl

2002-01-01

This paper compares autonomous relative navigation performance for formations in eccentric, medium and high-altitude Earth orbits using Global Positioning System (GPS) Standard Positioning Service (SPS), crosslink, and celestial object measurements. For close formations, the relative navigation accuracy is highly dependent on the magnitude of the uncorrelated measurement errors. A relative navigation position accuracy of better than 10 centimeters root-mean-square (RMS) can be achieved for medium-altitude formations that can continuously track at least one GPS signal. A relative navigation position accuracy of better than 15 meters RMS can be achieved for high-altitude formations that have sparse tracking of the GPS signals. The addition of crosslink measurements can significantly improve relative navigation accuracy for formations that use sparse GPS tracking or celestial object measurements for absolute navigation.

Space Segment (SS) and the Navigation User Segment (US) Interface Control Document (ICD)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1993-10-10

This Interface Control Document (ICD) defines the requirements related to the interface between the Space Segment (SS) of the Global Positioning System (GPS) and the Navigation Users Segment of the GPS. 2880k, 154p.

Improved Navigational Technology and Air Traffic Control: A Description of Controller Coordination and Workload

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-04-01

Improved navigational technology, such as microwave landing systems (MLS) or : global positioning systems (GPS), installed in today's commercial aircraft : enable the air traffic control (ATC) system to better utilize its airspace. : This increased e...

Flight Mechanics/Estimation Theory Symposium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

Satellite attitude determination and control, orbit determination, and onboard and ground attitude determination procedures are among the topics discussed. Other topics covered include: effect of atmosphere on Venus orbiter navigation; satellite-to-satellite tracking; and satellite onboard navigation using global positioning system data.

Global Positioning System Navigation Algorithms

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-05-01

Historical Remarks on Navigation In Greek mythology , Odysseus sailed safely by the Sirens only to encounter the monsters Scylla and Charybdis...TNED 000 00 1(.7 BIBLIOGRAPHY 1. Pinsent, John. Greek Mythology . Paul Hamlyn, London, 1969. 2. Kline, Morris. Mathematical Thought from Ancient to

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Organization Search Enter text Search Navigation Bar End Cap Search EMC Go Branches Global Climate and Weather / VISION | About EMC EMC > GLOBAL BRANCH > GFS > HOME Home Implementations Documentation References Products Model Guidance Performance Developers VLab GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM Global Data

Impacts of tropical cyclones on Fiji and Samoa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuleshov, Yuriy; Prakash, Bipendra; Atalifo, Terry; Waqaicelua, Alipate; Seuseu, Sunny; Ausetalia Titimaea, Mulipola

2013-04-01

Weather and climate hazards have significant impacts on Pacific Island Countries. Costs of hazards such as tropical cyclones can be astronomical making enormous negative economic impacts on developing countries. We highlight examples of extreme weather events which have occurred in Fiji and Samoa in the last few decades and have caused major economic and social disruption in the countries. Destructive winds and torrential rain associated with tropical cyclones can bring the most damaging weather conditions to the region causing economic and social hardship, affecting agricultural productivity, infrastructure and economic development which can persist for many years after the initial impact. Analysing historical data, we describe the impacts of tropical cyclones Bebe and Kina on Fiji. Cyclone Bebe (October 1972) affected the whole Fiji especially the Yasawa Islands, Viti Levu and Kadavu where hurricane force winds have been recorded. Nineteen deaths were reported and damage costs caused by cyclone Bebe were estimated as exceeding F20 million (F 1972). Tropical cyclone Kina passed between Fiji's two main islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu, and directly over Levuka on the night of 2 January 1993 with hurricane force winds causing extensive damage. Twenty three deaths have been reported making Kina one of the deadliest hurricanes in Fiji's recent history. Severe flooding on Viti Levu, combined with high tide and heavy seas led to destruction of the Sigatoka and Ba bridges, as well as almost complete loss of crops in Sigatoka and Navua deltas. Overall, damage caused by cyclone Kina was estimated as F170 million. In Samoa, we describe devastation to the country caused by tropical cyclones Ofa (February 1990) and Val (December 1991) which were considered to be the worst cyclones to affect the Samoan islands since the 1889 Apia cyclone. In Samoa, seven people were killed due to cyclone Ofa, thousands of people were left homeless and entire villages were destroyed. Damage on Samoa totalled to US130 million. Cyclone Val caused damage and destruction to 95% of houses in Samoa and severe crop damage; total damage was estimated as US200 million. Recently, severe tropical cyclone Evan affected Samoa and Fiji (December 2012). Significant progress in operational tropical cyclone forecasting has been achieved over the past few decades which resulted in improving early warning system but death toll attributed to cyclones is still high - at least 14 deaths in Samoa are related to cyclone Evan (luckily, no death reports in Fiji). Cyclone-related economic losses also remain very high making significant negative impact on economies of the countries. Preliminary assessment of damage caused by cyclone Evan in Fiji indicates loses of about 75.29 million. By the end of this century projections suggest decreasing numbers of tropical cyclones but a possible shift towards more intense categories. In addition, geographic shifts in distribution of tropical cyclone occurrences caused by warming of the atmospheric and oceanic environment are possible. This should be taken in consideration by authorities of the Pacific Island Countries when developing adaptation strategies to increasing tropical cyclone risk due to climate change.

Weather Avoidance Guidelines for NASA Global Hawk High-Altitude UAS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cecil, Daniel J.; Zipser, Edward J.; Velden, Chris; Monette, Sarah; Heymsfield, Gerry; Braun, Scott; Newman, Paul; Black, Pete; Black, Michael; Dunion, Jason

2014-01-01

NASA operates two Global Hawk unmanned aircraft systems for Earth Science research projects. In particular, they are used in the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) project during 2012, 2013, and 2014 to take measurements from the environment around tropical cyclones, and from directly above tropical cyclones. There is concern that strict adherence to the weather avoidance rules used in 2012 may sacrifice the ability to observe important science targets. We have proposed modifications to these weather avoidance rules that we believe will improve the ability to observe science targets without compromising aircraft safety. The previous guidelines, used in 2012, specified: Do not approach thunderstorms within 25 nm during flight at FL500 or below. When flying above FL500: Do not approach reported lightning within 25NM in areas where cloud tops are reported at FL500 or higher. Aircraft should maintain at least 10000 ft vertical separation from reported lightning if cloud tops are below FL500. No over-flight of cumulus tops higher than FL500. No flight into forecast or reported icing conditions. No flight into forecast or reported moderate or severe turbulence Based on past experience with high-altitude flights over tropical cyclones, we have recommended changing this guidance to: Do not approach thunderstorms within 25 nm during flight at FL500 or below. Aircraft should maintain at least 5000 ft vertical separation from significant convective cloud tops except: a) When cloud tops above FL500: In the event of reported significant lightning activity or indicators of significant overshooting tops, do not approach within 10-25 nm, depending on pilot discretion and advice from Mission Scientist. b) When cloud tops are below FL500, maintain 10000 ft separation from reported significant lightning or indicators of significant overshooting tops. No flight into forecasted or reported icing conditions. No flight into forecasted or reported moderate or severe turbulence The key changes have to do with overflight of high convective cloud tops and those producing lightning. Experience shows that most tropical oceanic convection (including that in tropical cyclones) is relatively gentle even if the cloud tops are quite high, and can be safely overflown. Exceptions are convective elements producing elevated lightning flash rates (more than just the occasional flash, which would trigger avoidance under the previous rules) and significant overshooting cloud tops.

An updated climatology of explosive cyclones using alternative measures of cyclone intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanley, J.; Caballero, R.

2009-04-01

Using a novel cyclone tracking and identification method, we compute a climatology of explosively intensifying cyclones or ‘bombs' using the ERA-40 and ERA-Interim datasets. Traditionally, ‘bombs' have been identified using a central pressure deepening rate criterion (Sanders and Gyakum, 1980). We investigate alternative methods of capturing such extreme cyclones. These methods include using the maximum wind contained within the cyclone, and using a potential vorticity column measure within such systems, as a measure of intensity. Using the different measures of cyclone intensity, we construct and intercompare maps of peak cyclone intensity. We also compute peak intensity probability distributions, and assess the evidence for the bi-modal distribution found by Roebber (1984). Finally, we address the question of the relationship between storm intensification rate and storm destructiveness: are ‘bombs' the most destructive storms?

Effect of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone on Atmospheric Condition and Distribution of Rainfall in Gorontalo, Ternate, and Sorong Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lumbangaol, A.; Serhalawan, Y. R.; Endarwin

2017-12-01

Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone is an atmospheric phenomenon that has claimed many lives in the Philippines. This super-typhoon cyclone grows in the Western Pacific Ocean, North of Papua. With the area directly contiguous to the trajectory of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone growth, it is necessary to study about the growth activity of this tropical cyclones in Indonesia, especially in 3 different areas, namely Gorontalo, Ternate, and Sorong. This study was able to determine the impact of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone on atmospheric dynamics and rainfall growth distribution based on the stages of tropical cyclone development. The data used in this study include Himawari-8 IR channel satellite data to see the development stage and movement track of Tropical Cyclone Nock-Ten, rainfall data from TRMM 3B42RT satellite product to know the rain distribution in Gorontalo, Ternate, and Sorong, and reanalysis data from ECMWF such as wind direction and speed, vertical velocity, and relative vorticity to determine atmospheric conditions at the time of development of the Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone. The results of data analysis processed using GrADS application showed the development stage of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone has effect of changes in atmospheric dynamics condition and wind direction pattern. In addition, tropical cyclones also contribute to very light to moderate scale intensity during the cycle period of tropical cyclone development in all three regions.

Preface: High-rate GNSS: Theory, methods and engineering/geophysical applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Peiliang

2017-06-01

Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) have revolutionized the science and engineering of positioning, timing and navigation and have become an indispensable means to rapidly obtain precise positioning-related information, profoundly affecting our daily life and infrastructure. With GNSS, the position of an object, either stationary or moving, can be determined anywhere, anytime and under any weather condition. In addition to providing a positioning and timing information service, GNSS are now also used to reconstruct physical properties of media through which GNSS signals travel. The utilization of additional GNSS systems such as the European Galileo and the Chinese Beidou (both expected to complete their final global constellations in 2020) will contribute to positioning/navigation science and engineering, provide more industrial opportunities and surely open more challenges.

Clusters of cyclones encircling Jupiter’s poles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adriani, A.; Mura, A.; Orton, G.; Hansen, C.; Altieri, F.; Moriconi, M. L.; Rogers, J.; Eichstädt, G.; Momary, T.; Ingersoll, A. P.; Filacchione, G.; Sindoni, G.; Tabataba-Vakili, F.; Dinelli, B. M.; Fabiano, F.; Bolton, S. J.; Connerney, J. E. P.; Atreya, S. K.; Lunine, J. I.; Tosi, F.; Migliorini, A.; Grassi, D.; Piccioni, G.; Noschese, R.; Cicchetti, A.; Plainaki, C.; Olivieri, A.; O’Neill, M. E.; Turrini, D.; Stefani, S.; Sordini, R.; Amoroso, M.

2018-03-01

The familiar axisymmetric zones and belts that characterize Jupiter’s weather system at lower latitudes give way to pervasive cyclonic activity at higher latitudes. Two-dimensional turbulence in combination with the Coriolis β-effect (that is, the large meridionally varying Coriolis force on the giant planets of the Solar System) produces alternating zonal flows. The zonal flows weaken with rising latitude so that a transition between equatorial jets and polar turbulence on Jupiter can occur. Simulations with shallow-water models of giant planets support this transition by producing both alternating flows near the equator and circumpolar cyclones near the poles. Jovian polar regions are not visible from Earth owing to Jupiter’s low axial tilt, and were poorly characterized by previous missions because the trajectories of these missions did not venture far from Jupiter’s equatorial plane. Here we report that visible and infrared images obtained from above each pole by the Juno spacecraft during its first five orbits reveal persistent polygonal patterns of large cyclones. In the north, eight circumpolar cyclones are observed about a single polar cyclone; in the south, one polar cyclone is encircled by five circumpolar cyclones. Cyclonic circulation is established via time-lapse imagery obtained over intervals ranging from 20 minutes to 4 hours. Although migration of cyclones towards the pole might be expected as a consequence of the Coriolis β-effect, by which cyclonic vortices naturally drift towards the rotational pole, the configuration of the cyclones is without precedent on other planets (including Saturn’s polar hexagonal features). The manner in which the cyclones persist without merging and the process by which they evolve to their current configuration are unknown.

Contrasting effects of tropical cyclones on the annual survival of a pelagic seabird in the Indian Ocean.

PubMed

Nicoll, Malcolm A C; Nevoux, Marie; Jones, Carl G; Ratcliffe, Norman; Ruhomaun, Kevin; Tatayah, Vikash; Norris, Ken

2017-02-01

Tropical cyclones are renowned for their destructive nature and are an important feature of marine and coastal tropical ecosystems. Over the last 40 years, their intensity, frequency and tracks have changed, partly in response to ocean warming, and future predictions indicate that these trends are likely to continue with potential consequences for human populations and coastal ecosystems. However, our understanding of how tropical cyclones currently affect marine biodiversity, and pelagic species in particular, is limited. For seabirds, the impacts of cyclones are known to be detrimental at breeding colonies, but impacts on the annual survival of pelagic adults and juveniles remain largely unexplored and no study has simultaneously explored the direct impacts of cyclones on different life-history stages across the annual life cycle. We used a 20-year data set on tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean, tracking data from 122 Round Island petrels and long-term capture-mark-recapture data to explore the impacts of tropical cyclones on the survival of adult and juvenile (first year) petrels during both the breeding and migration periods. The tracking data showed that juvenile and adult Round Island petrels utilize the three cyclone regions of the Indian Ocean and were potentially exposed to cyclones for a substantial part of their annual cycle. However, only juvenile petrel survival was affected by cyclone activity; negatively by a strong cyclone in the vicinity of the breeding colony and positively by increasing cyclone activity in the Northern Indian Ocean where they spend the majority of their first year at sea. These contrasting effects raise the intriguing prospect that the projected changes in cyclones under current climate change scenarios may have positive as well as the more commonly perceived negative impacts on marine biodiversity. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Navigation study for low-altitude Earth satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pastor, P. R.; Fang, B. T.; Yee, C. P.

1985-01-01

This document describes several navigation studies for low-altitude Earth satellites. The use of Global Positioning System Navigation Package data for LANDSAT-5 orbit determination is evaluated. In addition, a navigation analysis for the proposed Tracking and Data Aquisition System is presented. This analysis, based on simulations employing one-way Doppler data, is used to determine the agreement between the Research and Development Goddard Trajectory Determination System and the Sequential Error Analysis Program results. Properties of several geopotential error models are studied and an exploratory study of orbit smoother process noise is presented.

Autonomous GPS/INS navigation experiment for Space Transfer Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Upadhyay, Triveni N.; Cotterill, Stephen; Deaton, A. W.

1993-01-01

An experiment to validate the concept of developing an autonomous integrated spacecraft navigation system using on board Global Positioning System (GPS) and Inertial Navigation System (INS) measurements is described. The feasibility of integrating GPS measurements with INS measurements to provide a total improvement in spacecraft navigation performance, i.e. improvement in position, velocity and attitude information, was previously demonstrated. An important aspect of this research is the automatic real time reconfiguration capability of the system designed to respond to changes in a spacecraft mission under the control of an expert system.

Autonomous GPS/INS navigation experiment for Space Transfer Vehicle (STV)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Upadhyay, Triveni N.; Cotterill, Stephen; Deaton, A. Wayne

1991-01-01

An experiment to validate the concept of developing an autonomous integrated spacecraft navigation system using on board Global Positioning System (GPS) and Inertial Navigation System (INS) measurements is described. The feasibility of integrating GPS measurements with INS measurements to provide a total improvement in spacecraft navigation performance, i.e. improvement in position, velocity and attitude information, was previously demonstrated. An important aspect of this research is the automatic real time reconfiguration capability of the system designed to respond to changes in a spacecraft mission under the control of an expert system.

Autonomous GPS/INS navigation experiment for Space Transfer Vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Upadhyay, Triveni N.; Cotterill, Stephen; Deaton, A. W.

1993-07-01

An experiment to validate the concept of developing an autonomous integrated spacecraft navigation system using on board Global Positioning System (GPS) and Inertial Navigation System (INS) measurements is described. The feasibility of integrating GPS measurements with INS measurements to provide a total improvement in spacecraft navigation performance, i.e. improvement in position, velocity and attitude information, was previously demonstrated. An important aspect of this research is the automatic real time reconfiguration capability of the system designed to respond to changes in a spacecraft mission under the control of an expert system.

Climate and Weather Analysis of Afghanistan Thunderstorms

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-01

dry, continental polar (cP) air. The subtropical jet (STJ) and Extratropical storm track tend to lie south of Kabul. Mean high SFC temperatures...March-April-May (MAM). Note that AFG lies to the east of a broad trough centered over southern Europe and to the west of broad ridge centered over... Extratropical Cyclone FAR False Alarm Rate FOB Forward Operating Base FRN Forecaster Reference Notebook GFS Global Forecast System GoA

High-Resolution Global and Basin-Scale Ocean Analyses and Forecasts

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Naval Research Laboratory,Oceanographic Division,Stennis Space Center,MS,39529-5004 8. PERFORMING... ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT...six weeks, here circling near the center of an anti- cyclonic eddy seen in both analyses. A third drifter is moving southward past Coffs Harbour

Navigation Performance of Global Navigation Satellite Systems in the Space Service Volume

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Force, Dale A.

2013-01-01

This paper extends the results I reported at this year's ION International Technical Meeting on multi-constellation GNSS coverage by showing how the use of multi-constellation GNSS improves Geometric Dilution of Precision (GDOP). Originally developed to provide position, navigation, and timing for terrestrial users, GPS has found increasing use for in space for precision orbit determination, precise time synchronization, real-time spacecraft navigation, and three-axis attitude control of Earth orbiting satellites. With additional Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) coming into service (GLONASS, Galileo, and Beidou) and the development of Satellite Based Augmentation Services, it is possible to obtain improved precision by using evolving multi-constellation receiver. The Space Service Volume formally defined as the volume of space between three thousand kilometers altitude and geosynchronous altitude ((is) approximately 36,500 km), with the volume below three thousand kilometers defined as the Terrestrial Service Volume (TSV). The USA has established signal requirements for the Space Service Volume (SSV) as part of the GPS Capability Development Documentation (CDD). Diplomatic efforts are underway to extend Space service Volume commitments to the other Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) service providers in an effort to assure that all space users will benefit from the enhanced capabilities of interoperating GNSS services in the space domain.

Precise visual navigation using multi-stereo vision and landmark matching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Zhiwei; Oskiper, Taragay; Samarasekera, Supun; Kumar, Rakesh

2007-04-01

Traditional vision-based navigation system often drifts over time during navigation. In this paper, we propose a set of techniques which greatly reduce the long term drift and also improve its robustness to many failure conditions. In our approach, two pairs of stereo cameras are integrated to form a forward/backward multi-stereo camera system. As a result, the Field-Of-View of the system is extended significantly to capture more natural landmarks from the scene. This helps to increase the pose estimation accuracy as well as reduce the failure situations. Secondly, a global landmark matching technique is used to recognize the previously visited locations during navigation. Using the matched landmarks, a pose correction technique is used to eliminate the accumulated navigation drift. Finally, in order to further improve the robustness of the system, measurements from low-cost Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) and Global Positioning System (GPS) sensors are integrated with the visual odometry in an extended Kalman Filtering framework. Our system is significantly more accurate and robust than previously published techniques (1~5% localization error) over long-distance navigation both indoors and outdoors. Real world experiments on a human worn system show that the location can be estimated within 1 meter over 500 meters (around 0.1% localization error averagely) without the use of GPS information.

Process-Oriented Diagnostics of Tropical Cyclones in Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Y.; Kim, D.; Camargo, S. J.; Wing, A. A.; Sobel, A. H.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Murakami, H.; Reed, K. A.; Vecchi, G. A.; Wehner, M. F.; Zarzycki, C. M.; Zhao, M.

2017-12-01

Simulating tropical cyclone (TC) activity with global climate models (GCMs) remains a challenging problem. While some GCMs are able to simulate TC activity that is in good agreement with the observations, many other models exhibit strong biases. Decreasing horizontal grid spacing of the GCM simulations tends to improve the characteristics of simulated TCs, but this enhancement alone does not necessarily lead to greater skill in simulating TC activity. This study uses process-based diagnostics to identify model characteristics that could explain why some GCM simulations are able to produce more realistic TC activity than others. The diagnostics examine how convection, moisture, clouds and related processes are coupled at individual grid points, which yields useful information into how convective parameterizations interact with resolved model dynamics. These diagnostics share similarities with those originally developed to examine the Madden-Julian Oscillations in climate models. This study will examine TCs in eight different GCM simulations performed at NOAA/GFDL, NCAR and NASA that have different horizontal resolutions and ocean coupling. Preliminary results suggest that stronger TCs are closely associated with greater rainfall - thus greater diabatic heating - in the inner-core regions of the storms, which is consistent with previous theoretical studies. Other storm characteristics that can be used to infer why GCM simulations with comparable horizontal grid spacings produce different TC activity will be examined.

Annular denuders for use in global climate and stratospheric measurements of acidic gases and particles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stevens, Robert K.

1991-01-01

Measurements of acidic and basic gases that coexist with fine particle (less than 2.5 micron) may be useful for determining the impact of these species on global climate changes and determining species that influence stratospheric ozone levels. Annular denuders are well suited for this purpose. A new concentric annular denuder system, consisting of a three channel denuder, a Teflon coated cyclone preseparator, and a multistage filter pack was developed, evaluated, and shown to provide reliable atmospheric measurements of SO2, HNO2, HNO3, NH3, SO4(=), NH4(+), NO3(-), and H(+). For example, the precision of the annular denuder for the ambient measurements of HNO3 and nitrates at concentrations between 0.1 to 3 microgram/cu m was + or - 12 and 16 pct., respectively. The 120 x 25 mm three channel denuder is encased in a stainless steel sheath and has annular spaces that are 1 mm wide. This design was shown to have nearly identical capacity for removal of SO2 as conventional 210 x 25 mm single channel denuder configurations. The cyclone preseparator was designed and tested to have a D sub 50 cutoff diameter of 2.5 micron and minimal retention of HNO3.

GNSS receiver use-case development GPS-ABC workshop VI RTCA Washington, DC March 30, 2017.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-03-30

The purpose of this workshop was to discuss the results from testing of various categories of GPS/Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers to include aviation (non-certified), cellular, general location/navigation, high precision and netwo...

Guidelines for the Design of GPS and LORAN Receiver Controls and Displays

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-03-01

Long range navigation (Loran) and global positioning system (GPS) receivers are widely used in aviation. The Loran and GPS receivers are similar in size and function but derive their navigation signals from different sources. The design of the contro...

A Subtropical Cyclone in the Canary Islands: the October 2014 event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quitian, Lara; Martin, Maria Luisa; Jesús González-Alemán, Juan; Santos-Muñoz, Daniel; Valero Rodríguez, Francisco

2016-04-01

Depending on the thermal structure and dynamics, there are different types of cyclones in the troposphere. Subtropical cyclones (STC) are low pressure systems that share tropical and extratropical characteristics, having hybrid thermal structures. In October 2014, a cyclonic system landfall the Canary Islands, causing widespread damages. The system began to develop in October 18 and its effects lasted until October 21. Here, the diagnosis and identification of such cyclone as STC is carried out, examining its dynamical and thermal evolution. Diverse fields have been obtained from three different numerical models, and several diagnostic tools and cyclone phase space diagrams have been used. The cyclone evolved from a typical extratropical cyclone, detached from the atmospheric circulation which was highly meridional and became a stationary cut-off low. The meridional intrusion of the trough as well as a low-level baroclinic zone favored the formation of a STC northwestern of the Canary Islands. Several cyclone phase space diagrams are used to classify the cyclone as a STC, highlighting a deep cold core in its early stages that develops into a shallow warm core. High potential vorticity areas associated with the cyclone promoted strong winds and precipitation over the Islands. Throughout the event, an increased conditional instability is observed in the different soundings, leading to strong vertical wind shear. Moreover, relatively warm sea surface temperature is obtained, establishing the conditions to favor the organization of long-lived convective structures.

The study of Merydunal and Zonal Index and its relationships with Cyclone Gonu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ezzatian, Victoria

2010-05-01

Distinguish the integrated natural disaster management is basic, also there happens rarely during 100 years. Cyclone Gonu, an unusually strong tropical cyclone, developed in the eastern part of the Arabian Sea on June 1st. The cyclone made landfall in Oman on the 6th with maximum sustained winds near 148 km/hr. A few days prior to landfall, Gonu had intensified to a powerful super cyclonic storm with maximum sustained winds near 260 km/hr on the 5th, becoming the first documented super cyclone in the Arabian Sea and tied for the strongest cyclone in the North Indian Ocean. After making landfall in Oman, Gonu moved through the Gulf of Oman making a second landfall in Iran. Tropical Cyclone Gonu affected more than 20,000 people and was responsible for 49 fatalities and 27 missing people in Oman. Gonu brought heavy rainfall which caused floods and landslides. Meanwhile in Iran 5 fatalities were reported and 9 people remain missing. Tropical cyclones as strong as Gonu are rare in the Arabian Sea. Severe thunderstorms, associated with an outer band of the tropical cyclone Yemyin , produced heavy rains and winds during June 23-25. The storms produced heavy rains which caused floodings and destroyed thousands of homes .Tropical Cyclone Yemyin developed as a depression in the Bay of Bengal on the 21st and made landfall in India's southern state on the 22nd. Yemyin brought heavy rain in the southern parts of India, leaving over 254 mm of rain. After crossing over India, Yemyin moved into the Arabian Sea and began moving towards the northwest. On June 26, the cyclone intensified and maximum sustained winds reached 93 km/hr. The cyclone was responsible for at least 21 fatalities in the Baluchistan province. Meanwhile in Afghanistan, Yemyin produced heavy rainfall which prompted floods that were responsible for 56 deaths and left thousands of people homeless . Because of these happenings we decided surveying the synoptic patterns in this month. Key words: Tropical cyclones, Tropical Cyclone Gonu, merridional index, zonal index .

An Improved Wind Speed Retrieval Algorithm For The CYGNSS Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruf, C. S.; Clarizia, M. P.

2015-12-01

The NASA spaceborne Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) mission is a constellation of 8 microsatellites focused on tropical cyclone (TC) inner core process studies. CYGNSS will be launched in October 2016, and will use GPS-Reflectometry (GPS-R) to measure ocean surface wind speed in all precipitating conditions, and with sufficient frequency to resolve genesis and rapid intensification. Here we present a modified and improved version of the current baseline Level 2 (L2) wind speed retrieval algorithm designed for CYGNSS. An overview of the current approach is first presented, which makes use of two different observables computed from 1-second Level 1b (L1b) delay-Doppler Maps (DDMs) of radar cross section. The first observable, the Delay-Doppler Map Average (DDMA), is the averaged radar cross section over a delay-Doppler window around the DDM peak (i.e. the specular reflection point coordinate in delay and Doppler). The second, the Leading Edge Slope (LES), is the leading edge of the Integrated Delay Waveform (IDW), obtained by integrating the DDM along the Doppler dimension. The observables are calculated over a limited range of time delays and Doppler frequencies to comply with baseline spatial resolution requirements for the retrieved winds, which in the case of CYGNSS is 25 km. In the current approach, the relationship between the observable value and the surface winds is described by an empirical Geophysical Model Function (GMF) that is characterized by a very high slope in the high wind regime, for both DDMA and LES observables, causing large errors in the retrieval at high winds. A simple mathematical modification of these observables is proposed, which linearizes the relationship between ocean surface roughness and the observables. This significantly reduces the non-linearity present in the GMF that relate the observables to the wind speed, and reduces the root-mean square error between true and retrieved winds, particularly in the high wind regime. The modified retrieval algorithm is tested using GPS-R synthetic data simulated using an End-to-End Simulator (E2ES) developed for CYGNSS, and it is then applied to GPS-R data from the TechDemoSat-1 (TDS-1) GPS-R experiment. An analysis of the algorithm performances for both synthetic and real data is illustrated.

The Representation of Tropical Cyclones Within the Global William Putman Non-Hydrostatic Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5) at Cloud-Permitting Resolutions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Putman, William M.

2010-01-01

The Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-S), an earth system model developed in the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), has integrated the non-hydrostatic finite-volume dynamical core on the cubed-sphere grid. The extension to a non-hydrostatic dynamical framework and the quasi-uniform cubed-sphere geometry permits the efficient exploration of global weather and climate modeling at cloud permitting resolutions of 10- to 4-km on today's high performance computing platforms. We have explored a series of incremental increases in global resolution with GEOS-S from irs standard 72-level 27-km resolution (approx.5.5 million cells covering the globe from the surface to 0.1 hPa) down to 3.5-km (approx. 3.6 billion cells).

Mathematical and experimental modelling of the dynamic bubble processes occurring in a two-phase cyclonic separation device

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schrage, Dean Stewart

1998-11-01

This dissertation presents a combined mathematical and experimental analysis of the fluid dynamics of a gas- liquid, dispersed-phase cyclonic separation device. The global objective of this research is to develop a simulation model of separation process in order to predict the void fraction field within a cyclonic separation device. The separation process is approximated by analyzing the dynamic motion of many single-bubbles, moving under the influence of the far-field, interacting with physical boundaries and other bubbles. The dynamic motion of the bubble is described by treating the bubble as a point-mass and writing an inertial force balance, equating the force applied to the bubble-point-location to the inertial acceleration of the bubble mass (also applied to the point-location). The forces which are applied to the bubble are determined by an integration of the surface pressure over the bubble. The surface pressure is coupled to the intrinsic motion of the bubble, and is very difficult to obtain exactly. However, under moderate Reynolds number, the wake trailing a bubble is small and the near-field flow field can be approximated as an inviscid flow field. Unconventional potential flow techniques are employed to solve for the surface pressure; the hydrodyamic forces are described as a hydrodynamic mass tensor operating on the bubble acceleration vector. The inviscid flow model is augmented with adjunct forces which describe: drag forces, dynamic lift, far-field pressure forces. The dynamic equations of motion are solved both analytically and numerically for the bubble trajectory in specific flow field examples. A validation of these equations is performed by comparing to an experimentally-derived trajectory of a single- bubble, which is released into a cylindrical Couette flow field (inner cylinder rotating) at varying positions. Finally, a simulation of a cyclonic separation device is performed by extending the single-bubble dynamic model to a multi-bubble ensemble. A simplified model is developed to predict the effects of bubble-interaction. The simulation qualitatively depicts the separation physics encountered in an actual cyclonic separation device, supporting the original tenet that the separation process can be approximated by the collective motions of single- bubbles.

An Evaluation of QuikSCAT data over Tropical Cyclones as Determined in an Operational Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawkins, J. D.; Edson, R. T.

2001-12-01

QuikSCAT data over all global tropical cyclones were examined during the past 3 1/2 years in conjunction with the development of a user¡_s guide to the forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The active microwave scatterometer has greatly enhanced the forecaster's ability to evaluate surface winds over the data poor regions of the tropical oceans. The QuikSCAT scatterometer¡_s unique ability to provide both wind speed and direction on a nearly bi-daily basis has greatly increased the forecaster¡_s near real-time knowledge of tropical cyclone genesis, intensification potential, outer wind structure, and a ¡rminimum estimate¡_ for a tropical cyclone¡_s maximum sustained winds. Scatterometer data were compared with data available to the forecasters in a near real-time environment including ship, land and buoy reports. In addition, comparisons were also made with aircraft measurements (for Atlantic and East Pacific systems), numerical weather model wind fields, and various remote sensing techniques. Wind speeds were found to be extremely useful, especially for the radius of gale force winds. However, in rain-contaminated areas, light winds were often greatly overestimated while in heavy winds, wind speeds were often quite reasonable if not slightly underestimated. The largest issues are still focused on the correct wind direction selection. In these cases, rain-flagged wind vector cells greatly affected the results from the direction ambiguity selection procedure. The ambiguity selection algorithm often had difficulties resolving a circulation center when large areas of the tropical cyclone¡_s center were flagged. Often a block of winds would occur perpendicular to the swath irregardless of the circulation¡_s position. These winds caused considerable confusion for the operational forecasters. However, it was determined that in many cases, an accurate center position could still be obtained by using methods to incorporate the more accurate wind speeds and the outer wind field vectors that were not as seriously affected. Quantitative results and comparisons will be shown in this presentation. In addition, guides to the operational forecasters to determine system centers inspite of the ambiguity selection problems will also be discussed.

The Impact of Estimating High-Resolution Tropospheric Gradients on Multi-GNSS Precise Positioning

PubMed Central

Zhou, Feng; Li, Xingxing; Li, Weiwei; Chen, Wen; Dong, Danan; Wickert, Jens; Schuh, Harald

2017-01-01

Benefits from the modernized US Global Positioning System (GPS), the revitalized Russian GLObal NAvigation Satellite System (GLONASS), and the newly-developed Chinese BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) and European Galileo, multi-constellation Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) has emerged as a powerful tool not only in positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT), but also in remote sensing of the atmosphere and ionosphere. Both precise positioning and the derivation of atmospheric parameters can benefit from multi-GNSS observations. In this contribution, extensive evaluations are conducted with multi-GNSS datasets collected from 134 globally-distributed ground stations of the International GNSS Service (IGS) Multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX) network in July 2016. The datasets are processed in six different constellation combinations, i.e., GPS-, GLONASS-, BDS-only, GPS + GLONASS, GPS + BDS, and GPS + GLONASS + BDS + Galileo precise point positioning (PPP). Tropospheric gradients are estimated with eight different temporal resolutions, from 1 h to 24 h, to investigate the impact of estimating high-resolution gradients on position estimates. The standard deviation (STD) is used as an indicator of positioning repeatability. The results show that estimating tropospheric gradients with high temporal resolution can achieve better positioning performance than the traditional strategy in which tropospheric gradients are estimated on a daily basis. Moreover, the impact of estimating tropospheric gradients with different temporal resolutions at various elevation cutoff angles (from 3° to 20°) is investigated. It can be observed that with increasing elevation cutoff angles, the improvement in positioning repeatability is decreased. PMID:28368346

The Impact of Estimating High-Resolution Tropospheric Gradients on Multi-GNSS Precise Positioning.

PubMed

Zhou, Feng; Li, Xingxing; Li, Weiwei; Chen, Wen; Dong, Danan; Wickert, Jens; Schuh, Harald

2017-04-03

Benefits from the modernized US Global Positioning System (GPS), the revitalized Russian GLObal NAvigation Satellite System (GLONASS), and the newly-developed Chinese BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) and European Galileo, multi-constellation Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) has emerged as a powerful tool not only in positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT), but also in remote sensing of the atmosphere and ionosphere. Both precise positioning and the derivation of atmospheric parameters can benefit from multi-GNSS observations. In this contribution, extensive evaluations are conducted with multi-GNSS datasets collected from 134 globally-distributed ground stations of the International GNSS Service (IGS) Multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX) network in July 2016. The datasets are processed in six different constellation combinations, i.e., GPS-, GLONASS-, BDS-only, GPS + GLONASS, GPS + BDS, and GPS + GLONASS + BDS + Galileo precise point positioning (PPP). Tropospheric gradients are estimated with eight different temporal resolutions, from 1 h to 24 h, to investigate the impact of estimating high-resolution gradients on position estimates. The standard deviation (STD) is used as an indicator of positioning repeatability. The results show that estimating tropospheric gradients with high temporal resolution can achieve better positioning performance than the traditional strategy in which tropospheric gradients are estimated on a daily basis. Moreover, the impact of estimating tropospheric gradients with different temporal resolutions at various elevation cutoff angles (from 3° to 20°) is investigated. It can be observed that with increasing elevation cutoff angles, the improvement in positioning repeatability is decreased.

33 CFR 401.20 - Automatic Identification System.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

...' maritime Differential Global Positioning System radiobeacon services; or (7) The use of a temporary unit... Identification System. (a) Each of the following vessels must use an Automatic Identification System (AIS... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Automatic Identification System...

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Organization Search Enter text Search Navigation Bar End Cap Search EMC Go Branches Global Climate and Weather / VISION | About EMC Click on a model logo to go to its home page RTOFS Global RTOFS Global RTOFS Atlantic

The Variation of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall within the North Atlantic and Pacific as Observed from Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodgers, Edward; Pierce, Harold; Adler, Robert

1999-01-01

Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations in the North Atlantic and in three equal geographical regions of the North Pacific (i.e., Western, Central, and Eastern North Pacific). These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the 1987-1989, 1991-1998 North Atlantic and Pacific rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most abundant. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from the Defence Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/ Radiometer (SSM/I) observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are then multiplied by the number of hours in a given month. Mean monthly rainfall amounts are also constructed for all the other North Atlantic and Pacific raining systems during this eleven year period for the purpose of estimating the geographical distribution and intensity of rainfall contributed by non-tropical cyclone systems. Further, the combination of the non-tropical cyclone and tropical cyclone (i.e., total) rainfall is constructed to delineate the fractional amount that tropical cyclones contributed to the total North Pacific rainfall.

Integrating GPS, GYRO, vehicle speed sensor, and digital map to provide accurate and real-time position in an intelligent navigation system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qingquan; Fang, Zhixiang; Li, Hanwu; Xiao, Hui

2005-10-01

The global positioning system (GPS) has become the most extensively used positioning and navigation tool in the world. Applications of GPS abound in surveying, mapping, transportation, agriculture, military planning, GIS, and the geosciences. However, the positional and elevation accuracy of any given GPS location is prone to error, due to a number of factors. The applications of Global Positioning System (GPS) positioning is more and more popular, especially the intelligent navigation system which relies on GPS and Dead Reckoning technology is developing quickly for future huge market in China. In this paper a practical combined positioning model of GPS/DR/MM is put forward, which integrates GPS, Gyro, Vehicle Speed Sensor (VSS) and digital navigation maps to provide accurate and real-time position for intelligent navigation system. This model is designed for automotive navigation system making use of Kalman filter to improve position and map matching veracity by means of filtering raw GPS and DR signals, and then map-matching technology is used to provide map coordinates for map displaying. In practical examples, for illustrating the validity of the model, several experiments and their results of integrated GPS/DR positioning in intelligent navigation system will be shown for the conclusion that Kalman Filter based GPS/DR integrating position approach is necessary, feasible and efficient for intelligent navigation application. Certainly, this combined positioning model, similar to other model, can not resolve all situation issues. Finally, some suggestions are given for further improving integrated GPS/DR/MM application.

Differential GNSS and Vision-Based Tracking to Improve Navigation Performance in Cooperative Multi-UAV Systems

PubMed Central

Vetrella, Amedeo Rodi; Fasano, Giancarmine; Accardo, Domenico; Moccia, Antonio

2016-01-01

Autonomous navigation of micro-UAVs is typically based on the integration of low cost Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers and Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS)-based inertial and magnetic sensors to stabilize and control the flight. The resulting navigation performance in terms of position and attitude accuracy may not suffice for other mission needs, such as the ones relevant to fine sensor pointing. In this framework, this paper presents a cooperative UAV navigation algorithm that allows a chief vehicle, equipped with inertial and magnetic sensors, a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver, and a vision system, to improve its navigation performance (in real time or in the post processing phase) exploiting formation flying deputy vehicles equipped with GPS receivers. The focus is set on outdoor environments and the key concept is to exploit differential GPS among vehicles and vision-based tracking (DGPS/Vision) to build a virtual additional navigation sensor whose information is then integrated in a sensor fusion algorithm based on an Extended Kalman Filter. The developed concept and processing architecture are described, with a focus on DGPS/Vision attitude determination algorithm. Performance assessment is carried out on the basis of both numerical simulations and flight tests. In the latter ones, navigation estimates derived from the DGPS/Vision approach are compared with those provided by the onboard autopilot system of a customized quadrotor. The analysis shows the potential of the developed approach, mainly deriving from the possibility to exploit magnetic- and inertial-independent accurate attitude information. PMID:27999318

Global warming and tropical cyclone climate in the western North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Nam-Young

Violent tropical cyclones (TCs) continue to inflict serious impacts on national economies and welfare, but how they are responding to global warming has not been fully clarified. Here I construct an empirical framework that shows the observations supporting a strong link between rising global ocean warmth and increasing trade-off between TC intensity and frequency in the western North Pacific. Thermodynamic structure of the tropical western North Pacific with high global ocean warmth is characterized by convectively more unstable lower troposphere with greater heat and moisture, but this instability is simultaneously accompanied by anomalous high pressure in the middle and upper troposphere over the same region. Increasing trade-off level between TC intensity and frequency in a warmer year proves that this environment further inhibits the TC occurrences over the region, but TCs that form tend to discharge stored energy to upper troposphere with stronger intensities. By increasing the intensity threshold at higher levels we confirmed that the TC climate connection with global ocean warmth occurs throughout the strongest portion of TCs, and the environmental connection of the TC climate is more conspicuous in the extreme portion of TCs. Intensities at the strongest 10~% of the western North Pacific TCs are comparable to super typhoons on average, the increasing trade-off magnitude clearly suggests that super typhoons in a warmer year gets stronger. Conclusively, the negative collinear feature of the thermodynamics influences the portion of TCs at the highest intensities, and super typhoons are likely to become stronger at the expense of overall TC frequencies in a warmer world. The consequence of this finding is that record-breaking TC intensities occur at the expense of overall TC frequencies under global warming. TC activity is understood as a variation which is independent of global warming, and could be assumed to be an internal variability having no trend. Frequency variation and super typhoon intensity variation are regarded as the addition of global warming influence on TC activity variation. The structure depicts how a previous intensity record is overtaken and frequency falls continuously in the global warming environment in a linear perspective. A peak TC activity year when global ocean warmth is the highest ever is likely to experience a record-breaking intensity. In the same way, the least number of annual TCs may appear when a lull of TC activity occurs in the warmest year.

Exploring Maps with Greedy Navigators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Sang Hoon; Holme, Petter

2012-03-01

During the last decade of network research focusing on structural and dynamical properties of networks, the role of network users has been more or less underestimated from the bird’s-eye view of global perspective. In this era of global positioning system equipped smartphones, however, a user’s ability to access local geometric information and find efficient pathways on networks plays a crucial role, rather than the globally optimal pathways. We present a simple greedy spatial navigation strategy as a probe to explore spatial networks. These greedy navigators use directional information in every move they take, without being trapped in a dead end based on their memory about previous routes. We suggest that the centralities measures have to be modified to incorporate the navigators’ behavior, and present the intriguing effect of navigators’ greediness where removing some edges may actually enhance the routing efficiency, which is reminiscent of Braess’s paradox. In addition, using samples of road structures in large cities around the world, it is shown that the navigability measure we define reflects unique structural properties, which are not easy to predict from other topological characteristics. In this respect, we believe that our routing scheme significantly moves the routing problem on networks one step closer to reality, incorporating the inevitable incompleteness of navigators’ information.

Observing Tropical Cyclones from the Global Hawk: HAMSR Results from GRIP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lambrigtsen, B.; Brown, S.; Behrangi, A.

2011-12-01

The Global Hawk unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) recently acquired by NASA was flown for the first time in 2010 in a hurricane field campaign, the NASA Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment. One of the primary payloads was the High Altitude MMIC Sounding Radiometer (HAMSR) developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. HAMSR is a cloud penetrating microwave sounder that provides a picture of the state of the atmosphere, such as the thermodynamic environment around hurricanes and the convective structure in the inner core. We show results from GRIP, including analysis of observations of Hurricane Karl during 13 hours during a period of rapid intensification.

Differential GPS for air transport: Status

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hueschen, Richard M.

1993-01-01

The presentation presents background on what the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) is, desired target dates for initial GNSS capabilities for aircraft operations, and a description of differential GPS (Global Positioning System). The presentation also presents an overview of joint flight tests conducted by LaRC and Honeywell on an integrated differential GPS/inertial reference unit (IRU) navigation system. The overview describes the system tested and the results of the flight tests. The last item presented is an overview of a current grant with Ohio University from LaRC which has the goal of developing a precision DGPS navigation system based on interferometry techniques. The fundamentals of GPS interferometry are presented and its application to determine attitude and heading and precision positioning are shown. The presentation concludes with the current status of the grant.

Precise positioning with current multi-constellation Global Navigation Satellite Systems: GPS, GLONASS, Galileo and BeiDou.

PubMed

Li, Xingxing; Zhang, Xiaohong; Ren, Xiaodong; Fritsche, Mathias; Wickert, Jens; Schuh, Harald

2015-02-09

The world of satellite navigation is undergoing dramatic changes with the rapid development of multi-constellation Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSSs). At the moment more than 70 satellites are already in view, and about 120 satellites will be available once all four systems (BeiDou + Galileo + GLONASS + GPS) are fully deployed in the next few years. This will bring great opportunities and challenges for both scientific and engineering applications. In this paper we develop a four-system positioning model to make full use of all available observations from different GNSSs. The significant improvement of satellite visibility, spatial geometry, dilution of precision, convergence, accuracy, continuity and reliability that a combining utilization of multi-GNSS brings to precise positioning are carefully analyzed and evaluated, especially in constrained environments.

Intercomparison of mid latitude storm diagnostics (IMILAST) - synthesis of project results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neu, Urs

2017-04-01

The analysis of the occurrence of mid-latitude storms is of great socio-economical interest due to their vast and destructive impacts. However, a unique definition of cyclones is missing, and therefore the definition of what a cyclone is as well as quantifying its strength contains subjective choices. Existing automatic cyclone identification and tracking algorithms are based on different definitions and use diverse characteristics, e.g. data transformation, metrics used for cyclone identification, cyclone identification procedures or tracking methods. The project IMILAST systematically compares different cyclone detection and tracking methods, with the aim to comprehensively assess the influence of different algorithms on cyclone climatologies, temporal trends of frequency, strength or other characteristics of cyclones and thus quantify systematic uncertainties in mid-latitudinal storm identification and tracking. The three main intercomparison experiments used the ERA-interim reanalysis as a common input data set and focused on differences between the methods with respect to number, track density, life cycle characteristics, and trend patterns on the one hand and potential differences of the long-term climate change signal of cyclonic activity between the methods on the other hand. For the third experiment, the intercomparison period has been extended to a 30 year period from 1979 to 2009 and focuses on more specific aspects, such as parameter sensitivities, the comparison of automated to manual tracking sets, regional analysis (regional trends, Arctic and Antarctic cyclones, cyclones in the Mediterranean) or specific phenomena like splitting and merging of cyclones. In addition, the representation of storms and their characteristics in reanalysis data sets is examined to further enhance the knowledge on uncertainties related to storm occurrence. This poster presents a synthesis of the main results from the intercomparison activities within IMILAST.

Capturing Multiscale Phenomena via Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) in 2D and 3D Atmospheric Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferguson, J. O.; Jablonowski, C.; Johansen, H.; McCorquodale, P.; Ullrich, P. A.; Langhans, W.; Collins, W. D.

2017-12-01

Extreme atmospheric events such as tropical cyclones are inherently complex multiscale phenomena. Such phenomena are a challenge to simulate in conventional atmosphere models, which typically use rather coarse uniform-grid resolutions. To enable study of these systems, Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) can provide sufficient local resolution by dynamically placing high-resolution grid patches selectively over user-defined features of interest, such as a developing cyclone, while limiting the total computational burden of requiring such high-resolution globally. This work explores the use of AMR with a high-order, non-hydrostatic, finite-volume dynamical core, which uses the Chombo AMR library to implement refinement in both space and time on a cubed-sphere grid. The characteristics of the AMR approach are demonstrated via a series of idealized 2D and 3D test cases designed to mimic atmospheric dynamics and multiscale flows. In particular, new shallow-water test cases with forcing mechanisms are introduced to mimic the strengthening of tropical cyclone-like vortices and to include simplified moisture and convection processes. The forced shallow-water experiments quantify the improvements gained from AMR grids, assess how well transient features are preserved across grid boundaries, and determine effective refinement criteria. In addition, results from idealized 3D test cases are shown to characterize the accuracy and stability of the non-hydrostatic 3D AMR dynamical core.

Interactions between the Somali Current eddies during the summer monsoon: insights from a numerical study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akuetevi, C. Q. C.; Barnier, B.; Verron, J.; Molines, J.-M.; Lecointre, A.

2016-02-01

Three hindcast simulations of the global ocean circulation differing by resolution (1/4 or 1/12°) or parametrization or atmospheric forcing are used to describe the interactions between the large anticyclonic eddies generated by the Somali Current system during the Southwest Monsoon. The present investigation of the Somalian coherent eddy structures allows us to identify the origin and the subsequent development of the cyclones flanked upon the Great Whirl (GW) previously identified by Beal and Donohue (2013) in satellite observations and to establish that similar cyclones are also flanked upon the Southern Gyre (SG). These cyclones are identified as potential actors in mixing water masses within the large eddies and offshore the coast of Somalia. All three simulations bring to light that during the period when the Southwest Monsoon is well established, the SG moves northward along the Somali coast and encounters the GW. The interaction between the SG and the GW is a collision without merging, in a way that has not been described in observations up to now. During the collision the GW is pushed to the east of Socotra Island, sheds several smaller patches of anticyclonic vorticity, and often reforms into the Socotra Eddy, thus proposing a formation mechanism for that eddy. During this process the GW gives up its place to the SG. This process is robust throughout the three simulations.

Shape shifting: Local landmarks interfere with navigation by, and recognition of, global shape.

PubMed

Buckley, Matthew G; Smith, Alastair D; Haselgrove, Mark

2014-03-01

An influential theory of spatial navigation states that the boundary shape of an environment is preferentially encoded over and above other spatial cues, such that it is impervious to interference from alternative sources of information. We explored this claim with 3 intradimensional-extradimensional shift experiments, designed to examine the interaction of landmark and geometric features of the environment in a virtual navigation task. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants were first required to find a hidden goal using information provided by the shape of the arena or landmarks integrated into the arena boundary (Experiment 1) or within the arena itself (Experiment 2). Participants were then transferred to a different-shaped arena that contained novel landmarks and were again required to find a hidden goal. In both experiments, participants who were navigating on the basis of cues that were from the same dimension that was previously relevant (intradimensional shift) learned to find the goal significantly faster than participants who were navigating on the basis of cues that were from a dimension that was previously irrelevant (extradimensional shift). This suggests that shape information does not hold special status when learning about an environment. Experiment 3 replicated Experiment 2 and also assessed participants' recognition of the global shape of the navigated arenas. Recognition was attenuated when landmarks were relevant to navigation throughout the experiment. The results of these experiments are discussed in terms of associative and non-associative theories of spatial learning.

AstroNavigation: Freely-available Online Instruction for Performing a Sight Reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gessner Stewart, Susan; Grundstrom, Erika; Caudel, Dave

2015-08-01

A reliable method of obtaining your geographic location from observations of celestial bodies is globally available. This online learning module, developed through a collaboration between Vanderbilt University and the U.S. Naval Observatory, serves to address the need for freely-available comprehensive instruction in celestial navigation online. Specifically targeted are the steps of preforming a sight reduction to obtain a terrestrial position using this technique. Difficult concepts such as plotting on a navigational chart and the complexities of using navigation publications are facilitated through this online content delivery, rooted in effective course design principles. There is good potential in using celestial navigation as a tool for stimulating interest in astronomy given its resourcefulness and accessibility.

Detection of centers of tropical cyclones using Communication, Ocean, and Meteorological Satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Juhyun; Im, Jungho; Park, Seohui; Yoo, Cheolhee

2017-04-01

Tropical cyclones are one of major natural disasters, which results in huge damages to human and society. Analyzing behaviors and characteristics of tropical cyclones is essential for mitigating the damages by tropical cyclones. In particular, it is important to keep track of the centers of tropical cyclones. Cyclone center and track information (called Best Track) provided by Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) are widely used for the reference data of tropical cyclone centers. However, JTWC uses multiple resources including numerical modeling, geostationary satellite data, and in situ measurements to determine the best track in a subjective way and makes it available to the public 6 months later after an event occurred. Thus, the best track data cannot be operationally used to identify the centers of tropical cyclones in real time. In this study, we proposed an automated approach for identifying the centers of tropical cyclones using only Communication, Ocean, and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) Meteorological Imager (MI) sensor derived data. It contains 5 bands—VIS (0.67µm), SWIR (3.7µm), WV (6.7µm), IR1 (10.8µm), and IR2 (12.0µm). We used IR1 band images to extract brightness temperatures of cloud tops over Western North Pacific between 2011 and 2012. The Angle deviation between brightness temperature-based gradient direction in a moving window and the reference angle toward the center of the window was extracted. Then, a spatial analysis index called circular variance was adopted to identify the centers of tropical cyclones based on the angle deviation. Finally, the locations of the minimum circular variance indexes were identified as the centers of tropical cyclones. While the proposed method has comparable performance for detecting cyclone centers in case of organized cloud convections when compared with the best track data, it identified the cyclone centers distant ( 2 degrees) from the best track centers for unorganized convections.

Serial Clustering of North Atlantic Cyclones and Wind Storms: A New Identification Base and Sensitivity to Intensity and Intra-Seasonal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G. C.; Kirchner-Bossi, N. O.; Befort, D. J.; Ulbrich, U.

2015-12-01

Time-clustered mid-latitude winter storms are responsible for a large portion of the overall windstorm-related damage in Europe. Thus, its study entails a high meteorological interest, while its outcome can result in a crucial utility for the (re)insurance industry. In addition to existing cyclone-based studies, here we use an event identification approach based on surface near wind speeds only, to investigate windstorm clustering and compare it to cyclone clustering. Specifically, cyclone and windstorm tracks are identified for winter 1979-2013 (Oct-Mar), to perform two sensitivity analyses on event-clustering in the North Atlantic using ERA-Interim Reanalysis. First, the link between clustering and cyclone intensity is analysed and compared to windstorms. Secondly, the sensitivity of clustering on intra-seasonal time scales is investigated, for both cyclones and windstorms. The wind-based approach reveals additional regions of clustering over Western Europe, which could be related to extreme damages, showing the added value of investigating wind field derived tracks in addition to that of cyclone tracks. Previous studies indicate a higher degree of clustering for stronger cyclones. However, our results show that this assumption is not always met. Although a positive relationship is confirmed for the clustering centre located over Iceland, clustering off the coast of the Iberian Peninsula behaves opposite. Even though this region shows the highest clustering, most of its signal is due to cyclones with intensities below the 70th percentile of the Laplacian of MSLP. Results on the sensitivity of clustering to the time of the winter season (Oct-Mar) show a temporal evolution of the clustering patterns, for both windstorms and cyclones. Compared to all cyclones, clustering of windstorms and strongest cyclones culminate around February, while all cyclone clustering peak in December to January.

Diabatic processes and the evolution of two contrasting extratropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez-Alvarado, Oscar; Gray, Suzanne; Methven, John

2016-04-01

Two contrasting extratropical cyclones were observed over the United Kingdom during the summer 2012 field campaign of the DIAMET (DIAbatic influences on Mesoscale structures in ExtraTropical storms) project. The first cyclone, observed in July, was a shallow system typical of summer over west Europe while the second cyclone, observed in August, was a much deeper system which developed a potential vorticity (PV) tower. The evolution of these two cyclones was analysed and compared in terms of diabatic effects with respect to two aspects. The first aspect is the amount and distribution of heat produced during the development of each cyclone, measured by the cross-isentropic motion around the cyclone centre. The second aspect is the modification to the circulation around the cyclones' centres, measured by area-averaged isentropic vorticity. The contributions from individual diabatic processes, such as convection, cloud microphysics and radiation, to these two aspects is also considered. The cyclones were analysed via hindcast simulations with a research version of the Met Office Unified Model, enhanced with on-line tracers of diabatic changes of potential temperature and PV. A new methodology for the interpretation of these tracers was also implemented and used. The hindcast simulations were compared with the available dropsonde observations from the field campaign as well as operational analyses and radar rainfall rates. It is shown that, while boundary layer and turbulent mixing processes and cloud microphysics processes contributed to the development of both cyclones, the main differences between the cyclones in terms of diabatic effects could be attributed to differences in convective activity. It is also shown that the contribution from all these diabatic processes to changes in the circulation was modulated by the characteristics of advection around each cyclone in a highly nonlinear fashion. This research establishes a new framework for a systematic comparison of diabatic processes and their importance for the evolution of extratropical cyclones.

Recent Ship, Satellite and Autonomous Observations of Southern Ocean Eddies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strutton, P. G.; Moreau, S.; Llort, J.; Phillips, H. E.; Patel, R.; Della Penna, A.; Langlais, C.; Lenton, A.; Matear, R.; Dawson, H.; Boyd, P. W.

2016-12-01

The Southern Ocean is the area of greatest uncertainty regarding the exchange of CO2 between the ocean and atmosphere. It is also a region of abundant energetic eddies that significantly impact circulation and biogeochemistry. In the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean, cyclonic eddies are unusual in that they are upwelling favorable, as for cyclonic eddies elsewhere, but during summer they are low in silicate and phytoplankton biomass. The reverse is true for anticyclonic eddies in that they have counter-intuitive positive chlorophyll anomalies in summer. Similar but less obvious patterns occur in the Pacific and Atlantic sectors. Using ship, satellite and autonomous observations in the region south of Australia, the physical and biogeochemical signatures of both types of eddies were documented in 2016. A cyclonic eddy that lived for seven weeks exhibited doming isopycnals indicative of upwelling. However, low surface silicate and chlorophyll concentrations appeared to be characteristic of surface waters to the south where the eddy formed. Higher chlorophyll was confined to filaments at the eddy edge. Surface nitrate and phosphate concentrations were more than sufficient for a bloom of non-siliceous phytoplankton to occur. Acoustic observations from a high resolution TRIAXUS transect through the eddy documented high zooplankton biomass in the upper 150m. It is hypothesized that a non-diatom bloom was prevented by grazing pressure, but light may have also been an important limiting resource in late summer (April). Two SOCCOM floats that were deployed in the eddy field continued to monitor the physics, nitrate and bio-optics through the transition to winter. These observations across complementary platforms have identified and then explained the reason for these unexpected biological anomalies in an energetic and globally important region of the global ocean. Understanding the role of eddies in this region will be critical to the representation of mesoscale processes in models used to simulate and project ocean biogeochemistry and carbon uptake.

Effects of cyclone-generated disturbance on a tropical reef foraminifera assemblage.

PubMed

Strotz, Luke C; Mamo, Briony L; Dominey-Howes, Dale

2016-04-29

The sedimentary record, and associated micropalaeontological proxies, is one tool that has been employed to quantify a region's tropical cyclone history. Doing so has largely relied on the identification of allochthonous deposits (sediments and microfossils), sourced from deeper water and entrained by tropical cyclone waves and currents, in a shallow-water or terrestrial setting. In this study, we examine microfossil assemblages before and after a known tropical cyclone event (Cyclone Hamish) with the aim to better resolve the characteristics of this known signal. Our results identify no allochthonous material associated with Cyclone Hamish. Instead, using a swathe of statistical tools typical of ecological studies but rarely employed in the geosciences, we identify new, previously unidentified, signal types. These signals include a homogenising effect, with the level of differentiation between sample sites greatly reduced immediately following Cyclone Hamish, and discernible shifts in assemblage diversity. In the subsequent years following Hamish, the surface assemblage returns to its pre-cyclone form, but results imply that it is unlikely the community ever reaches steady state.

75 FR 47252 - Proposed Establishment of Low Altitude Area Navigation Routes (T-281, T-283, T-285, T-286, and T...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-05

...)/Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) equipment. This action would enhance safety and improve the... on the appropriate IFR En Route Low Altitude charts and would only be intended for use by GPS/GNSS...

A statistical analysis of the association between tropical cyclone intensity change and tornado frequency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Todd W.

2016-07-01

Tropical cyclones often produce tornadoes that have the potential to compound the injury and fatality counts and the economic losses associated with tropical cyclones. These tornadoes do not occur uniformly through time or across space. Multiple statistical methods were used in this study to analyze the association between tropical cyclone intensity change and tornado frequency. Results indicate that there is an association between the two and that tropical cyclones tend to produce more tornadoes when they are weakening, but the association is weak. Tropical cyclones can also produce a substantial number of tornadoes when they are relatively stable or strengthening.

Autonomous navigation system based on GPS and magnetometer data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Julie, Thienel K. (Inventor); Richard, Harman R. (Inventor); Bar-Itzhack, Itzhack Y. (Inventor)

2004-01-01

This invention is drawn to an autonomous navigation system using Global Positioning System (GPS) and magnetometers for low Earth orbit satellites. As a magnetometer is reliable and always provides information on spacecraft attitude, rate, and orbit, the magnetometer-GPS configuration solves GPS initialization problem, decreasing the convergence time for navigation estimate and improving the overall accuracy. Eventually the magnetometer-GPS configuration enables the system to avoid costly and inherently less reliable gyro for rate estimation. Being autonomous, this invention would provide for black-box spacecraft navigation, producing attitude, orbit, and rate estimates without any ground input with high accuracy and reliability.

Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission Navigation Performance During Apogee-Raising and Beyond

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farahmand, Mitra; Long, Anne; Hollister, Jacob; Rose, Julie; Godine, Dominic

2017-01-01

The primary objective of the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) Mission is to study the magnetic reconnection phenomena in the Earths magnetosphere. The MMS mission consists of four identical spinning spacecraft with the science objectives requiring a tetrahedral formation in highly elliptical orbits. The MMS spacecraft are equipped with onboard orbit and time determination software, provided by a weak-signal Global Positioning System (GPS) Navigator receiver hosting the Goddard Enhanced Onboard Navigation System (GEONS). This paper presents the results of MMS navigation performance analysis during the Phase 2a apogee-raising campaign and Phase 2b science segment of the mission.

Time and frequency applications.

PubMed

Hellwig, H

1993-01-01

An overview is given of the capabilities of atomic clocks and quartz crystal oscillators in terms of available precision of time and frequency signals. The generation, comparison, and dissemination of time and frequency is then discussed. The principal focus is to survey uses of time and frequency in navigation, communication, and science. The examples given include the Global Positioning System, a satellite-based global navigation system, and general and dedicated communication networks, as well as experiments in general relativity and radioastronomy. The number of atomic clocks and crystal oscillators that are in actual use worldwide is estimated.

Space-based augmentation for global navigation satellite systems.

PubMed

Grewal, Mohinder S

2012-03-01

This paper describes space-based augmentation for global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). Space-based augmentations increase the accuracy and integrity of the GNSS, thereby enhancing users' safety. The corrections for ephemeris, ionospheric delay, and clocks are calculated from reference station measurements of GNSS data in wide-area master stations and broadcast via geostationary earth orbit (GEO) satellites. This paper discusses the clock models, satellite orbit determination, ionospheric delay estimation, multipath mitigation, and GEO uplink subsystem (GUS) as used in the Wide Area Augmentation System developed by the FAA.

Do Tropical Cyclones Shape Shorebird Habitat Patterns? Biogeoclimatology of Snowy Plovers in Florida

PubMed Central

Convertino, Matteo; Elsner, James B.; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael; Kiker, Gregory A.; Martinez, Christopher J.; Fischer, Richard A.; Linkov, Igor

2011-01-01

Background The Gulf coastal ecosystems in Florida are foci of the highest species richness of imperiled shoreline dependent birds in the USA. However environmental processes that affect their macroecological patterns, like occupancy and abundance, are not well unraveled. In Florida the Snowy Plover (Charadrius alexandrinus nivosus) is resident along northern and western white sandy estuarine/ocean beaches and is considered a state-threatened species. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we show that favorable nesting areas along the Florida Gulf coastline are located in regions impacted relatively more frequently by tropical cyclones. The odds of Snowy Plover nesting in these areas during the spring following a tropical cyclone impact are seven times higher compared to the odds during the spring following a season without a cyclone. The only intensity of a tropical cyclone does not appear to be a significant factor affecting breeding populations. Conclusions/Significance Nevertheless a future climate scenario featuring fewer, but more extreme cyclones could result in a decrease in the breeding Snowy Plover population and its breeding range. This is because the spatio-temporal frequency of cyclone events was found to significantly affect nest abundance. Due to the similar geographic range and habitat suitability, and no decrease in nest abundance of other shorebirds in Florida after the cyclone season, our results suggest a common bioclimatic feedback between shorebird abundance and tropical cyclones in breeding areas which are affected by cyclones. PMID:21264268

Objectively classifying Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catto, Jennifer

2016-04-01

There has been a long tradition in attempting to separate extratropical cyclones into different classes depending on their cloud signatures, airflows, synoptic precursors, or upper-level flow features. Depending on these features, the cyclones may have different impacts, for example in their precipitation intensity. It is important, therefore, to understand how the distribution of different cyclone classes may change in the future. Many of the previous classifications have been performed manually. In order to be able to evaluate climate models and understand how extratropical cyclones might change in the future, we need to be able to use an automated method to classify cyclones. Extratropical cyclones have been identified in the Southern Hemisphere from the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset with a commonly used identification and tracking algorithm that employs 850 hPa relative vorticity. A clustering method applied to large-scale fields from ERA-Interim at the time of cyclone genesis (when the cyclone is first detected), has been used to objectively classify identified cyclones. The results are compared to the manual classification of Sinclair and Revell (2000) and the four objectively identified classes shown in this presentation are found to match well. The relative importance of diabatic heating in the clusters is investigated, as well as the differing precipitation characteristics. The success of the objective classification shows its utility in climate model evaluation and climate change studies.

Global Learning as General Education for the Twenty-First Century

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reich, Jacqueline C.

2012-01-01

Global awareness has emerged as a valued learning outcome in higher education. Students need repeated and on-going learning opportunities to develop the global competencies and habits of mind that are necessary to navigate our increasingly interconnected and complex world. This paper argues that situating an introductory global studies course into…

Tropical Cyclones in the 7-km NASA Global Nature Run for Use in Observing System Simulation Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reale, Oreste; Achuthavarier, Deepthi; Fuentes, Marangelly; Putman, William M.; Partyka, Gary

2017-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Nature Run (NR), released for use in Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs), is a 2-year long global non-hydrostatic free-running simulation at a horizontal resolution of 7 km, forced by observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice, and inclusive of interactive aerosols and trace gases. This article evaluates the NR with respect to tropical cyclone (TC) activity. It is emphasized that to serve as a NR, a long-term simulation must be able to produce realistic TCs, which arise out of realistic large-scale forcings. The presence in the NR of the realistic, relevant dynamical features over the African Monsoon region and the tropical Atlantic is confirmed, along with realistic African Easterly Wave activity. The NR Atlantic TC seasons, produced with 2005 and 2006 SSTs, show interannual variability consistent with observations, with much stronger activity in 2005. An investigation of TC activity over all the other basins (eastern and western North Pacific, North and South Indian Ocean, and Australian region), together with relevant elements of the atmospheric circulation, such as, for example, the Somali Jet and westerly bursts, reveals that the model captures the fundamental aspects of TC seasons in every basin, producing realistic number of TCs with realistic tracks, life spans and structures. This confirms that the NASA NR is a very suitable tool for OSSEs targeting TCs and represents an improvement with respect to previous long simulations that have served the global atmospheric OSSE community.

Tropical Cyclones in the 7km NASA Global Nature Run for use in Observing System Simulation Experiments

PubMed Central

Reale, Oreste; Achuthavarier, Deepthi; Fuentes, Marangelly; Putman, William M.; Partyka, Gary

2018-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Nature Run (NR), released for use in Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs), is a 2-year long global non-hydrostatic free-running simulation at a horizontal resolution of 7 km, forced by observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice, and inclusive of interactive aerosols and trace gases. This article evaluates the NR with respect to tropical cyclone (TC) activity. It is emphasized that to serve as a NR, a long-term simulation must be able to produce realistic TCs, which arise out of realistic large-scale forcings. The presence in the NR of the realistic, relevant dynamical features over the African Monsoon region and the tropical Atlantic is confirmed, along with realistic African Easterly Wave activity. The NR Atlantic TC seasons, produced with 2005 and 2006 SSTs, show interannual variability consistent with observations, with much stronger activity in 2005. An investigation of TC activity over all the other basins (eastern and western North Pacific, North and South Indian Ocean, and Australian region), together with relevant elements of the atmospheric circulation, such as, for example, the Somali Jet and westerly bursts, reveals that the model captures the fundamental aspects of TC seasons in every basin, producing realistic number of TCs with realistic tracks, life spans and structures. This confirms that the NASA NR is a very suitable tool for OSSEs targeting TCs and represents an improvement with respect to previous long simulations that have served the global atmospheric OSSE community. PMID:29674806

Tropical Cyclones in the 7km NASA Global Nature Run for use in Observing System Simulation Experiments.

PubMed

Reale, Oreste; Achuthavarier, Deepthi; Fuentes, Marangelly; Putman, William M; Partyka, Gary

2017-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Nature Run (NR), released for use in Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs), is a 2-year long global non-hydrostatic free-running simulation at a horizontal resolution of 7 km, forced by observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice, and inclusive of interactive aerosols and trace gases. This article evaluates the NR with respect to tropical cyclone (TC) activity. It is emphasized that to serve as a NR, a long-term simulation must be able to produce realistic TCs, which arise out of realistic large-scale forcings. The presence in the NR of the realistic, relevant dynamical features over the African Monsoon region and the tropical Atlantic is confirmed, along with realistic African Easterly Wave activity. The NR Atlantic TC seasons, produced with 2005 and 2006 SSTs, show interannual variability consistent with observations, with much stronger activity in 2005. An investigation of TC activity over all the other basins (eastern and western North Pacific, North and South Indian Ocean, and Australian region), together with relevant elements of the atmospheric circulation, such as, for example, the Somali Jet and westerly bursts, reveals that the model captures the fundamental aspects of TC seasons in every basin, producing realistic number of TCs with realistic tracks, life spans and structures. This confirms that the NASA NR is a very suitable tool for OSSEs targeting TCs and represents an improvement with respect to previous long simulations that have served the global atmospheric OSSE community.

Study of the impact of cyclogenesis at the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribo, M.; Llasat, C.

2009-09-01

The Mediterranean Basin is usually affected by high impact weather events, generating high impacts in all Mediterranean countries and causing important damages. This basin is surrounded by mountains and arid regions, and the interaction of the air flow with the orography barriers produces many effects, the most important is the formation of low pressure centers. This is one of the reasons why the Mediterranean Sea is considered to be the most cyclogenetic area in the world (Jansà, 1997). Floods are also one of the most important natural hazards in the Mediterranean Basin. Flood events occur when soil absorption, runoff or drainage cannot adequately disperse intense rainfall from quasi-stationary or stationary weather systems in short time periods. In some occasions these floods produce high social impact in the affected areas. Our work presents the study of the relationship between the flood episodes and the presence of cyclones in the Mediterranean Basin during those episodes, between 1990 and 2004. Information about social impact of each event has also been considered. To do these analyses the MEDEX database (MEDiterranean EXperiment on cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean) has been improved in the frame work of the European FLASH project, and information about cyclones and rainfall has been extracted from the MEDEX cyclones database. A total of 217 flood events had been identified. Once the presence of one or more cyclones during each flood episode has been identified, temporal and regional analyses were made to determine the distribution of the cyclonic centers and to study the evolution of the events. Mediterranean cyclogenesis is leaded by influence of external systems (along the African coast, from the Atlantic Ocean, and from the west of Europe), although the majority of the cyclones (87% of the studied cases) are generated in the Mediterranean Basin, under influence of preexistent systems. There are different Mediterranean cyclones, from weak mesoscale depressions to strong, intense and more extensive depressions, and are classified using different criteria. In our study each cyclone identified was characterized using two dynamic criteria: vertical structure and geostrophic circulation. The first characterization is based on the vertical profiles of the laplacian of temperature, depending on which atmospheric level is reached by the cyclone. The second characterization is based on the geostrophic circulation, defined with the geostrophic vorticity in the cyclone domain. From these two characterizations, we have classified the cyclonic centers into six different types: deep, medium and shallow; strong, moderate and weak cyclones. Results show that between 1990 and 2004, 25% of the days in this time period have recorded a flood event in the Mediterranean Basin, and 90.7% of these flood events were related to a cyclonic center. 57% of these events had been located at the western Mediterranean part, although some flood prone areas can be identified in all the Mediterranean Basin; Eastern Spain and Balearic Islands, northern of Italy (gulf of Genève), north of Africa (Sahara) and Cyprus and Turkey. Cyclones related with floods in the western part are mainly superficial cyclones. An important nucleus of deep cyclones related with floods can be found near Cyprus. The spatial distribution of cyclones related with floods, for the period from 1990 to 2004, is coherent with the general distribution of cyclones showed by Gil et al. 2002. There is a general tendency of increase of detected flood events with cyclonic center in the vicinity in the time period analyzed. A total of 4724 victims where counted during flood episodes. Results of the relationship between flood episodes and cyclonic centers show that 40% of the flood episodes with higher damages were related to weak cyclones.

Status and Perspective of the IGS Multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steigenberger, Peter; Montenbruck, Oliver; Weber, Robert; Hugentobler, Urs

2013-04-01

Following three decades, during which the Global Positioning System GPS has evolved from a military navigation system into an indispensable tool for geodetic research and global monitoring of the Earth, the world of satellite navigation has experienced dramatic changes over the past years. With GLONASS, a second global navigation system has achieved a fully operational status, GPS is introducing modernized civil and encrypted navigation signals, and a variety of new navigation constellations are being built-up in Asia and Europe. These include BeiDou, which has recently opened a regional navigation service in the Asia-Pacific region, Galileo, which now has four satellites in orbit, as well as QZSS, which offers a unique set of signals and service features. In recognition of a rapidly changing GNSS landscape, the International GNSS Service (IGS) has initiated the Multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX - http://igs.org/mgex) as a platform for early familiarization with emerging navigation systems and to pave the way for a full-featured use thereof in a future multi-GNSS service. As a first step, MGEX has promoted the build-up of a new global network of GNSS monitoring stations, each tracking at least one new constellation (Galileo, BeiDou, or QZSS) on top of GPS, GLONASS and SBAS. By the end of 2012, approximately 50 stations contribute offline and/or real-time data to the MGEX network. To facilitate introduction of new standards (specifically RINEX3 observation and navigation data formats), distinct data archives are used even for those MGEX stations jointly contributing to the legacy IGS. Building-up on the new multi-GNSS network, the generation of associated orbit and clock products has started in the second quarter of 2012. At this stage, only Galileo and QZSS products are offered by selected MGEX Analysis Centers, but the addition of BeiDou is expected in 2013 as the MGEX network expands and new Analysis Centers join the data processing effort. Despite remarkable progress in the first year of the MGEX project, numerous challenges have still to be met before the new constellations can contribute to high-grade navigation and geodetic services. So far, only an immature knowledge of the new navigation satellites and the transmitted signals is available. Much work is left to fully characterize the multitude of inter-signal, inter-frequency and inter-system biases, as well as antenna phase patterns in both the space and user segment. Likewise, proper knowledge of spacecraft attitude control and radiation pressure models appears indispensable for a proper generation of highly-accurate orbit and clock products. Only then will users be able to fully benefit from the high potential of robust, wide-band, and high navigation signals as well as new generations of highly stable clocks offered by the new constellations. Within the presentation, the MGEX project will be introduced and the latest achievements in the network build-up, the product generation and related activities will be presented. Current challenges and necessary steps towards a full-features multi-GNSS service of the IGS will be identified.

Kinematic reversal schemes for the geomagnetic dipole.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levy, E. H.

1972-01-01

Fluctuations in the distribution of cyclonic convective cells, in the earth's core, can reverse the sign of the geomagnetic field. Two kinematic reversal schemes are discussed. In the first scheme, a field maintained by cyclones concentrated at low latitude is reversed by a burst of cyclones at high latitude. Conversely, in the second scheme, a field maintained predominantly by cyclones in high latitudes is reversed by a fluctuation consisting of a burst of cyclonic convection at low latitude. The precise fluid motions which produce the geomagnetic field are not known. However, it appears that, whatever the details are, a fluctuation in the distribution of cyclonic cells over latitude can cause a geomagnetic reversal.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Foltz, Gregory R.; Balaguru, Karthik; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

The impact of tropical cyclones on surface chlorophyll concentration is assessed in the western subtropical North Atlantic Ocean during 1998–2011. Previous studies in this area focused on individual cyclones and gave mixed results regarding the importance of tropical cyclone-induced mixing for changes in surface chlorophyll. Using a more integrated and comprehensive approach that includes quantification of cyclone-induced changes in mixed layer depth, here it is shown that accumulated cyclone energy explains 22% of the interannual variability in seasonally-averaged (June–November) chlorophyll concentration in the western subtropical North Atlantic, after removing the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The variance explainedmore » by tropical cyclones is thus about 70% of that explained by the NAO, which has well-known impacts in this region. It is therefore likely that tropical cyclones contribute significantly to interannual variations of primary productivity in the western subtropical North Atlantic during the hurricane season.« less

The role of latent heat in kinetic energy conversions of South Pacific cyclones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kann, Deirdre M.; Vincent, Dayton G.

1986-01-01

The four-dimensional behavior of cyclone systems in the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is analyzed. Three cyclone systems, which occurred during the period from January 10-16, 1979, are examined using the data collected during the first special observing period of the FGGE. The effects of latent heating on the life cycles of the cyclones are investigated. Particular attention is given to the conversions of eddy available potential energy to eddy kinetic energy and of mean kinetic energy to eddy kinetic energy. The net radiation profile, sensible heat flux, total field of vertical motion, and latent heat component were computed. The life cycles of the cyclones are described. It is observed that the latent heating component accounts for nearly all the conversion in the three cyclones, and latent heating within the SPCZ is the major source of eddy kinetic energy for the cyclones.

Associating extreme precipitation events to parent cyclones in gridded data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhodes, Ruari; Shaffrey, Len; Gray, Sue

2015-04-01

When analysing the relationship of regional precipitation to its parent cyclone, it is insufficient to consider the cyclone's region of influence as a fixed radius from the centre due to the irregular shape of rain bands. A new method is therefore presented which allows the use of objective feature tracking data in the analysis of regional precipitation. Utilising the spatial extent of precipitation in gridded datasets, the most appropriate cyclone(s) may be associated with regional precipitation events. This method is applied in the context of an analysis of the influence of clustering and stalling of extra-tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic on total precipitation accumulations over England and Wales. Cyclone counts and residence times are presented for historical records (ERA-Interim) and future projections (HadGEM2-ES) of extreme (> 98th percentile) precipitation accumulations over England and Wales, for accumulation periods ranging from one day to one month.

Growing Land-Sea Temperature Contrast and the Intensification of Arctic Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, Jonathan J.; Hodges, Kevin I.

2018-04-01

Cyclones play an important role in the coupled dynamics of the Arctic climate system on a range of time scales. Modeling studies suggest that storminess will increase in Arctic summer due to enhanced land-sea thermal contrast along the Arctic coastline, in a region known as the Arctic Frontal Zone (AFZ). However, the climate models used in these studies are poor at reproducing the present-day Arctic summer cyclone climatology and so their projections of Arctic cyclones and related quantities, such as sea ice, may not be reliable. In this study we perform composite analysis of Arctic cyclone statistics using AFZ variability as an analog for climate change. High AFZ years are characterized both by increased cyclone frequency and dynamical intensity, compared to low years. Importantly, the size of the response in this analog suggests that General Circulation Models may underestimate the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change, given a similar change in baroclinicity.

Evaluation of Relative Navigation Algorithms for Formation-Flying Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kelbel, David; Lee, Taesul; Long, Anne; Carpenter, J. Russell; Gramling, Cheryl

2001-01-01

Goddard Space Flight Center is currently developing advanced spacecraft systems to provide autonomous navigation and control of formation flyers. This paper discusses autonomous relative navigation performance for formations in eccentric, medium, and high-altitude Earth orbits using Global Positioning System (GPS) Standard Positioning Service (SPS) and intersatellite range measurements. The performance of several candidate relative navigation approaches is evaluated. These analyses indicate that the relative navigation accuracy is primarily a function of the frequency of acquisition and tracking of the GPS signals. A relative navigation position accuracy of 0.5 meters root-mean-square (RMS) can be achieved for formations in medium-attitude eccentric orbits that can continuously track at least one GPS signal. A relative navigation position accuracy of better than 75 meters RMS can be achieved for formations in high-altitude eccentric orbits that have sparse tracking of the GPS signals. The addition of round-trip intersatellite range measurements can significantly improve relative navigation accuracy for formations with sparse tracking of the GPS signals.

Physical understanding of the tropical cyclone wind-pressure relationship.

PubMed

Chavas, Daniel R; Reed, Kevin A; Knaff, John A

2017-11-08

The relationship between the two common measures of tropical cyclone intensity, the central pressure deficit and the peak near-surface wind speed, is a long-standing problem in tropical meteorology that has been approximated empirically yet lacks physical understanding. Here we provide theoretical grounding for this relationship. We first demonstrate that the central pressure deficit is highly predictable from the low-level wind field via gradient wind balance. We then show that this relationship reduces to a dependence on two velocity scales: the maximum azimuthal-mean azimuthal wind speed and half the product of the Coriolis parameter and outer storm size. This simple theory is found to hold across a hierarchy of models spanning reduced-complexity and Earth-like global simulations and observations. Thus, the central pressure deficit is an intensity measure that combines maximum wind speed, storm size, and background rotation rate. This work has significant implications for both fundamental understanding and risk analysis, including why the central pressure better explains historical economic damages than does maximum wind speed.

Shallow water modeling of Jovian polar cyclone and vortices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Cheng; Tabataba-Vakili, Fachreddin; Ingersoll, Andrew P.

2017-10-01

Jupiter’s polar atmosphere was observed for the first time by the Juno visible spectrum camera (JunoCAM) and Juno Infrared Auroral Mapper (JIRAM). Both the visible and infrared images show active vortices and weather systems that are unlike any polar regions previously seen or modeled on any of the planets in our solar system. We developed a global shallow water model on a sphere with poles rotated to the equator to investigate the formation, maintenance and dynamic regimes controlling the morphology of polar cyclones and vortices. Passive Lagrangian particles with finite life time are included to represent the clouds. We verified that a westward barotropically unstable jet can spontaneously break the axial symmetry into a polygon-shaped figure rotating rigidly around the rotation axis as reported by previous laboratory experiments. The number of sides of the polygon depends on the deformation radius and is insensitive to the initial condition. Why Jupiter’s pole is different from Saturn’s is still under investigation.

Prediction of Winter Storm Tracks and Intensities Using the GFDL fvGFS Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rees, S.; Boaggio, K.; Marchok, T.; Morin, M.; Lin, S. J.

2017-12-01

The GFDL Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical core (FV3) is coupled to a modified version of the Global Forecast System (GFS) physics and initial conditions, to form the fvGFS model. This model is similar to the one being implemented as the next-generation operational weather model for the NWS, which is also FV3-powered. Much work has been done to verify fvGFS tropical cyclone prediction, but little has been done to verify winter storm prediction. These costly and dangerous storms impact parts of the U.S. every year. To verify winter storms we ran the NCEP operational cyclone tracker, developed at GFDL, on semi-real-time 13 km horizontal resolution fvGFS forecasts. We have found that fvGFS compares well to the operational GFS in storm track and intensity, though often predicts slightly higher intensities. This presentation will show the track and intensity verification from the past two winter seasons and explore possible reasons for bias.