Recurrence quantification analysis of extremes of maximum and minimum temperature patterns for different climate scenarios in the Mesochora catchment in Central-Western Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagoulia, Dionysia; Vlahogianni, Eleni I.

2018-06-01

A methodological framework based on nonlinear recurrence analysis is proposed to examine the historical data evolution of extremes of maximum and minimum daily mean areal temperature patterns over time under different climate scenarios. The methodology is based on both historical data and atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) produced climate scenarios for the periods 1961-2000 and 2061-2100 which correspond to 1 × CO2 and 2 × CO2 scenarios. Historical data were derived from the actual daily observations coupled with atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs). The dynamics of the temperature was reconstructed in the phase-space from the time series of temperatures. The statistically comparing different temperature patterns were based on some discriminating statistics obtained by the Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA). Moreover, the bootstrap method of Schinkel et al. (2009) was adopted to calculate the confidence bounds of RQA parameters based on a structural preserving resampling. The overall methodology was implemented to the mountainous Mesochora catchment in Central-Western Greece. The results reveal substantial similarities between the historical maximum and minimum daily mean areal temperature statistical patterns and their confidence bounds, as well as the maximum and minimum temperature patterns in evolution under the 2 × CO2 scenario. A significant variability and non-stationary behaviour characterizes all climate series analyzed. Fundamental differences are produced from the historical and maximum 1 × CO2 scenarios, the maximum 1 × CO2 and minimum 1 × CO2 scenarios, as well as the confidence bounds for the two CO2 scenarios. The 2 × CO2 scenario reflects the strongest shifts in intensity, duration and frequency in temperature patterns. Such transitions can help the scientists and policy makers to understand the effects of extreme temperature changes on water resources, economic development, and health of ecosystems and hence to proceed to effective proactive management of extreme phenomena. The impacts of the findings on the predictability of the extreme daily mean areal temperature patterns are also commented.

Analysis of temperature trends in Northern Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tosic, Ivana; Gavrilov, Milivoj; Unkašević, Miroslava; Marković, Slobodan; Petrović, Predrag

2017-04-01

An analysis of air temperature trends in Northern Serbia for the annual and seasonal time series is performed for two periods: 1949-2013 and 1979-2013. Three data sets of surface air temperatures: monthly mean temperatures, monthly maximum temperatures, and monthly minimum temperatures are analyzed at 9 stations that have altitudes varying between 75 m and 102 m. Monthly mean temperatures are obtained as the average of the daily mean temperatures, while monthly maximum (minimum) temperatures are the maximum (minimum) values of daily temperatures in corresponding month. Positive trends were found in 29 out of 30 time series, and the negative trend was found only in winter during the period 1979-2013. Applying the Mann-Kendall test, significant positive trends were found in 15 series; 7 in the period 1949-2013 and 8 in the period 1979-2013; and no significant trend was found in 15 series. Significant positive trends are dominated during the year, spring, and summer, where it was found in 14 out of 18 cases. Significant positive trends were found 7, 5, and 3 times in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. It was found that the positive temperature trends are dominant in Northern Serbia.

Variation in the daily rhythm of body temperature of free-living Arabian oryx (Oryx leucoryx): does water limitation drive heterothermy?

PubMed

Hetem, Robyn Sheila; Strauss, Willem Maartin; Fick, Linda Gayle; Maloney, Shane Kevin; Meyer, Leith Carl Rodney; Shobrak, Mohammed; Fuller, Andrea; Mitchell, Duncan

2010-10-01

Heterothermy, a variability in body temperature beyond the limits of homeothermy, has been advanced as a key adaptation of Arabian oryx (Oryx leucoryx) to their arid-zone life. We measured body temperature using implanted data loggers, for a 1-year period, in five oryx free-living in the deserts of Saudi Arabia. As predicted for adaptive heterothermy, during hot months compared to cooler months, not only were maximum daily body temperatures higher (41.1 ± 0.3 vs. 39.7 ± 0.1°C, P = 0.0002) but minimum daily body temperatures also were lower (36.1 ± 0.3 vs. 36.8 ± 0.2°C, P = 0.04), resulting in a larger daily amplitude of the body temperature rhythm (5.0 ± 0.5 vs. 2.9 ± 0.2°C, P = 0.0007), while mean daily body temperature rose by only 0.4°C. The maximum daily amplitude of the body temperature rhythm reached 7.7°C for two of our oryx during the hot-dry period, the largest amplitude ever recorded for a large mammal. Body temperature variability was influenced not only by ambient temperature but also water availability, with oryx displaying larger daily amplitudes of the body temperature rhythm during warm-dry months compared to warm-wet months (3.6 ± 0.6 vs. 2.3 ± 0.3°C, P = 0.005), even though ambient temperatures were the same. Free-living Arabian oryx therefore employ heterothermy greater than that recorded in any other large mammal, but water limitation, rather than high ambient temperature, seems to be the primary driver of this heterothermy.

Estimation of Surface Air Temperature from MODIS 1km Resolution Land Surface Temperature Over Northern China

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Suhung; Leptoukh, Gregory G.; Gerasimov, Irina

2010-01-01

Surface air temperature is a critical variable to describe the energy and water cycle of the Earth-atmosphere system and is a key input element for hydrology and land surface models. It is a very important variable in agricultural applications and climate change studies. This is a preliminary study to examine statistical relationships between ground meteorological station measured surface daily maximum/minimum air temperature and satellite remotely sensed land surface temperature from MODIS over the dry and semiarid regions of northern China. Studies were conducted for both MODIS-Terra and MODIS-Aqua by using year 2009 data. Results indicate that the relationships between surface air temperature and remotely sensed land surface temperature are statistically significant. The relationships between the maximum air temperature and daytime land surface temperature depends significantly on land surface types and vegetation index, but the minimum air temperature and nighttime land surface temperature has little dependence on the surface conditions. Based on linear regression relationship between surface air temperature and MODIS land surface temperature, surface maximum and minimum air temperatures are estimated from 1km MODIS land surface temperature under clear sky conditions. The statistical errors (sigma) of the estimated daily maximum (minimum) air temperature is about 3.8 C(3.7 C).

Trends and variability of daily temperature extremes during 1960-2012 in the Yangtze River Basin, China

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The variability of temperature extremes has been the focus of attention during the past few decades, and may exert a great influence on the global hydrologic cycle and energy balance through thermal forcing. Based on daily minimum and maximum temperature observed by the China Meteorological Administ...

Observations and simulations of the interactions between clouds, radiation, and precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naegele, Alexandra Claire

Increasing precipitation and warming temperatures associated with climate change have been documented across the globe, including in the Northeast US. These climate changes threaten human health in many ways. Research is necessary to understand and explain the relationship between climate change and human health. Extreme weather events such as extreme temperatures, convective storms, floods, lightning events, wintry precipitation, and low visibility, are frequently associated with adverse effects on human health. While more media attention is typically given to events that cause the most structural or economic damage (e.g., tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, etc.), extreme temperatures ultimately account for the greatest loss of life in the US. Extreme weather events can be unpredictable; however, improved knowledge and technology allow meteorologists to accurately forecast many of these events, specifically extreme temperature and precipitation events. Advancing our knowledge of climate variability and trends in extreme weather can inform: public education programs to alert the community of the dangers of extreme heat or cold, emergency response plans to hazardous weather conditions, and current thresholds for emergency alerts. This study evaluates trends in extreme weather events across New Hampshire and links these extreme events to adverse health outcomes. Using data from NCEI Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN) - Daily dataset (1981 - 2015), five daily xiii Extreme Weather Metrics (EWMs) were defined: Daily Maximum Temperature ≤32°F, Daily Maximum Temperature ≥90°F, Daily Maximum Temperature ≥95°F, Daily Precipitation ≥1", and Daily Precipitation ≥2". Relevant human health outcomes were extracted from the New Hampshire Hospital Discharge Dataset for the years 2001-2009. Health cases were defined based on the International Classification of Disease 9th Revision (ICD-9). Outcomes in this analysis include: All-Cause Injury, Vehicle Accidents, Accidental Falls, Accidents Due to Natural and Environmental (including excessive heat, excessive cold, exposure due to weather conditions, lightning, and storms and floods), Accidental Drowning, and Carbon Monoxide Poisoning. Temporal and spatial trends were assessed, and the associations between all health outcomes and EWMs, daily maximum temperature, and daily precipitation were evaluated via Spearman correlations. Once the four strongest correlations were determined, a quasi-Poisson regression model was used to evaluate the relationship between each exposureoutcome pair. These pairs were modeled to show the relation between maximum temperature and all-cause hospital visits, hospital visits related to vehicle accidents, hospital visits related to accidental falls, and hospital visits related to heat. Future work will incorporate these findings into public health planning and programming. This project is a collaboration with New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services (NH DHHS) who have a shared interest in understanding the impact of extreme weather events on the citizens of New Hampshire. Furthermore, this work supports an ongoing effort to implement the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) Framework, which focuses on identifying climate and weather-related hazards and estimating the associated disease burden.

Effects of microclimatic variables on the symptoms and signs onset of Moniliophthora roreri, causal agent of Moniliophthora pod rot in cacao

PubMed Central

Tixier, Philippe; Germon, Amandine; Rakotobe, Veromanitra; Phillips-Mora, Wilbert; Maximova, Siela; Avelino, Jacques

2017-01-01

Moniliophthora Pod Rot (MPR) caused by the fungus Moniliophthora roreri (Cif.) Evans et al., is one of the main limiting factors of cocoa production in Latin America. Currently insufficient information on the biology and epidemiology of the pathogen limits the development of efficient management options to control MPR. This research aims to elucidate MPR development through the following daily microclimatic variables: minimum and maximum temperatures, wetness frequency, average temperature and relative humidity in the highly susceptible cacao clone Pound-7 (incidence = 86% 2008–2013 average). A total of 55 cohorts totaling 2,268 pods of 3–10 cm length, one to two months of age, were tagged weekly. Pods were assessed throughout their lifetime, every one or two weeks, and classified in 3 different categories: healthy, diseased with no sporulation, diseased with sporulating lesions. As a first step, we used Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) to determine with no a priori the period (when and for how long) each climatic variable was better related with the appearance of symptoms and sporulation. Then the significance of the candidate variables was tested in a complete GLMM. Daily average wetness frequency from day 14 to day 1, before tagging, and daily average maximum temperature from day 4 to day 21, after tagging, were the most explanatory variables of the symptoms appearance. The former was positively linked with the symptoms appearance when the latter exhibited a maximum at 30°C. The most important variables influencing sporulation were daily average minimum temperature from day 35 to day 58 and daily average maximum temperature from day 37 to day 48, both after tagging. Minimum temperature was negatively linked with the sporulation while maximum temperature was positively linked. Results indicated that the fungal microclimatic requirements vary from the early to the late cycle stages, possibly due to the pathogen’s long latent period. This information is valuable for development of new conceptual models for MPR and improvement of control methods. PMID:28972981

Effects of microclimatic variables on the symptoms and signs onset of Moniliophthora roreri, causal agent of Moniliophthora pod rot in cacao.

PubMed

Leandro-Muñoz, Mariela E; Tixier, Philippe; Germon, Amandine; Rakotobe, Veromanitra; Phillips-Mora, Wilbert; Maximova, Siela; Avelino, Jacques

2017-01-01

Moniliophthora Pod Rot (MPR) caused by the fungus Moniliophthora roreri (Cif.) Evans et al., is one of the main limiting factors of cocoa production in Latin America. Currently insufficient information on the biology and epidemiology of the pathogen limits the development of efficient management options to control MPR. This research aims to elucidate MPR development through the following daily microclimatic variables: minimum and maximum temperatures, wetness frequency, average temperature and relative humidity in the highly susceptible cacao clone Pound-7 (incidence = 86% 2008-2013 average). A total of 55 cohorts totaling 2,268 pods of 3-10 cm length, one to two months of age, were tagged weekly. Pods were assessed throughout their lifetime, every one or two weeks, and classified in 3 different categories: healthy, diseased with no sporulation, diseased with sporulating lesions. As a first step, we used Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) to determine with no a priori the period (when and for how long) each climatic variable was better related with the appearance of symptoms and sporulation. Then the significance of the candidate variables was tested in a complete GLMM. Daily average wetness frequency from day 14 to day 1, before tagging, and daily average maximum temperature from day 4 to day 21, after tagging, were the most explanatory variables of the symptoms appearance. The former was positively linked with the symptoms appearance when the latter exhibited a maximum at 30°C. The most important variables influencing sporulation were daily average minimum temperature from day 35 to day 58 and daily average maximum temperature from day 37 to day 48, both after tagging. Minimum temperature was negatively linked with the sporulation while maximum temperature was positively linked. Results indicated that the fungal microclimatic requirements vary from the early to the late cycle stages, possibly due to the pathogen's long latent period. This information is valuable for development of new conceptual models for MPR and improvement of control methods.

Analytical Assessment of the Relationship between 100MWp Large-scale Grid-connected Photovoltaic Plant Performance and Meteorological Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, Jie; Zhu, Qiaoming; Cao, Shijie; You, Yang

2017-05-01

This paper helps in study of the relationship between the photovoltaic power generation of large scale “fishing and PV complementary” grid-tied photovoltaic system and meteorological parameters, with multi-time scale power data from the photovoltaic power station and meteorological data over the same period of a whole year. The result indicates that, the PV power generation has the most significant correlation with global solar irradiation, followed by diurnal temperature range, sunshine hours, daily maximum temperature and daily average temperature. In different months, the maximum monthly average power generation appears in August, which related to the more global solar irradiation and longer sunshine hours in this month. However, the maximum daily average power generation appears in October, this is due to the drop in temperature brings about the improvement of the efficiency of PV panels. Through the contrast of monthly average performance ratio (PR) and monthly average temperature, it is shown that, the larger values of monthly average PR appears in April and October, while it is smaller in summer with higher temperature. The results concluded that temperature has a great influence on the performance ratio of large scale grid-tied PV power system, and it is important to adopt effective measures to decrease the temperature of PV plant properly.

Evaluation of empirical relationships between extreme rainfall and daily maximum temperature in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herath, Sujeewa Malwila; Sarukkalige, Ranjan; Nguyen, Van Thanh Van

2018-01-01

Understanding the relationships between extreme daily and sub-daily rainfall events and their governing factors is important in order to analyse the properties of extreme rainfall events in a changing climate. Atmospheric temperature is one of the dominant climate variables which has a strong relationship with extreme rainfall events. In this study, a temperature-rainfall binning technique is used to evaluate the dependency of extreme rainfall on daily maximum temperature. The Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation was found to describe the relationship between daily maximum temperature and a range of rainfall durations from 6 min up to 24 h for seven Australian weather stations, the stations being located in Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra, Darwin, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney. The analysis shows that the rainfall - temperature scaling varies with location, temperature and rainfall duration. The Darwin Airport station shows a negative scaling relationship, while the other six stations show a positive relationship. To identify the trend in scaling relationship over time the same analysis is conducted using data covering 10 year periods. Results indicate that the dependency of extreme rainfall on temperature also varies with the analysis period. Further, this dependency shows an increasing trend for more extreme short duration rainfall and a decreasing trend for average long duration rainfall events at most stations. Seasonal variations of the scale changing trends were analysed by categorizing the summer and autumn seasons in one group and the winter and spring seasons in another group. Most of 99th percentile of 6 min, 1 h and 24 h rain durations at Perth, Melbourne and Sydney stations show increasing trend for both groups while Adelaide and Darwin show decreasing trend. Furthermore, majority of scaling trend of 50th percentile are decreasing for both groups.

Climate Change: A New Metric to Measure Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Temperatures using Record Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Munasinghe, L.; Jun, T.; Rind, D. H.

2012-01-01

Consensus on global warming is the result of multiple and varying lines of evidence, and one key ramification is the increase in frequency of extreme climate events including record high temperatures. Here we develop a metric- called "record equivalent draws" (RED)-based on record high (low) temperature observations, and show that changes in RED approximate changes in the likelihood of extreme high (low) temperatures. Since we also show that this metric is independent of the specifics of the underlying temperature distributions, RED estimates can be aggregated across different climates to provide a genuinely global assessment of climate change. Using data on monthly average temperatures across the global landmass we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures increased 10-fold between the first three decades of the last century (1900-1929) and the most recent decade (1999-2008). A more disaggregated analysis shows that the increase in frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the tropics than in higher latitudes, a pattern that is not indicated by changes in mean temperature. Our RED estimates also suggest concurrent increases in the frequency of both extreme high and extreme low temperatures during 2002-2008, a period when we observe a plateauing of global mean temperature. Using daily extreme temperature observations, we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the daily minimum temperature time-series compared to the daily maximum temperature time-series. There is no such observable difference in the frequency of extreme low temperatures between the daily minimum and daily maximum.

Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s

PubMed Central

Hawkins, Ed; Fricker, Thomas E; Challinor, Andrew J; Ferro, Christopher A T; Kit Ho, Chun; Osborne, Tom M

2013-01-01

Improved crop yield forecasts could enable more effective adaptation to climate variability and change. Here, we explore how to combine historical observations of crop yields and weather with climate model simulations to produce crop yield projections for decision relevant timescales. Firstly, the effects on historical crop yields of improved technology, precipitation and daily maximum temperatures are modelled empirically, accounting for a nonlinear technology trend and interactions between temperature and precipitation, and applied specifically for a case study of maize in France. The relative importance of precipitation variability for maize yields in France has decreased significantly since the 1960s, likely due to increased irrigation. In addition, heat stress is found to be as important for yield as precipitation since around 2000. A significant reduction in maize yield is found for each day with a maximum temperature above 32 °C, in broad agreement with previous estimates. The recent increase in such hot days has likely contributed to the observed yield stagnation. Furthermore, a general method for producing near-term crop yield projections, based on climate model simulations, is developed and utilized. We use projections of future daily maximum temperatures to assess the likely change in yields due to variations in climate. Importantly, we calibrate the climate model projections using observed data to ensure both reliable temperature mean and daily variability characteristics, and demonstrate that these methods work using retrospective predictions. We conclude that, to offset the projected increased daily maximum temperatures over France, improved technology will need to increase base level yields by 12% to be confident about maintaining current levels of yield for the period 2016–2035; the current rate of yield technology increase is not sufficient to meet this target. PMID:23504849

Soil water content and evaporation determined by thermal parameters obtained from ground-based and remote measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reginato, R. J.; Idso, S. B.; Jackson, R. D.; Vedder, J. F.; Blanchard, M. B.; Goettelman, R.

1976-01-01

Soil water contents from both smooth and rough bare soil were estimated from remotely sensed surface soil and air temperatures. An inverse relationship between two thermal parameters and gravimetric soil water content was found for Avondale loam when its water content was between air-dry and field capacity. These parameters, daily maximum minus minimum surface soil temperature and daily maximum soil minus air temperature, appear to describe the relationship reasonably well. These two parameters also describe relative soil water evaporation (actual/potential). Surface soil temperatures showed good agreement among three measurement techniques: in situ thermocouples, a ground-based infrared radiation thermometer, and the thermal infrared band of an airborne multispectral scanner.

Wildfire effects on water temperature and selection of breeding sites by the boreal toad (Bufo boreas) in seasonal wetlands

Treesearch

Blake R. Hossack; Paul Stephen Corn

2008-01-01

Disturbances can significantly affect the thermal regime and community structure of wetlands. We investigated the effect of a wildfire on water temperature of seasonal, montane wetlands after documenting the colonization of recently burned wetlands by the Boreal Toad (Bufo boreas boreas). We compared the daily mean temperature, daily maximum...

Changes to Sub-daily Rainfall Patterns in a Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westra, S.; Evans, J. P.; Mehrotra, R.; Sharma, A.

2012-12-01

An algorithm is developed for disaggregating daily rainfall into sub-daily rainfall 'fragments' (continuous high temporal-resolution rainfall sequences whose total depth sums to the daily rainfall amount) under a future, warmer climate. The basis of the algorithm is to re-sample sub-daily fragments from the historical record conditional on the total daily rainfall amount and a range of temperature-based atmospheric predictors. The logic is that as the atmosphere warms, future rainfall patterns will be more reflective of historical rainfall patterns which occurred on warmer days at the same location, or at locations which have an atmospheric temperature profile more representative of expected future atmospheric conditions. It was found that the daily to sub-daily scaling relationship varied significantly by season and by location, with rainfall patterns on warmer seasons or at warmer locations typically exhibiting higher rainfall intensity occurring over shorter periods within a day, compared with cooler seasons and locations. Importantly, by regressing against temperature-based atmospheric covariates, this effect was substantially reduced, suggesting that the approach also may be valid when extrapolating to a future climate. An adjusted method of fragments algorithm was then applied to nine stations around Australia, with the results showing that when holding total daily rainfall constant, the maximum intensity of short duration rainfall increased by a median of about 5% per degree for the maximum 6 minute burst, and 3.5% for the maximum one hour burst, whereas the fraction of the day with no rainfall increased by a median of 1.5%. This highlights that a large proportion of the change to the distribution of rainfall is likely to occur at sub-daily timescales, with significant implications for many hydrological systems.

Operational forecasting of daily temperatures in the Valencia Region. Part I: maximum temperatures in summer.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómez, I.; Estrela, M.

2009-09-01

Extreme temperature events have a great impact on human society. Knowledge of summer maximum temperatures is very useful for both the general public and organisations whose workers have to operate in the open, e.g. railways, roadways, tourism, etc. Moreover, summer maximum daily temperatures are considered a parameter of interest and concern since persistent heat-waves can affect areas as diverse as public health, energy consumption, etc. Thus, an accurate forecasting of these temperatures could help to predict heat-wave conditions and permit the implementation of strategies aimed at minimizing the negative effects that high temperatures have on human health. The aim of this work is to evaluate the skill of the RAMS model in determining daily maximum temperatures during summer over the Valencia Region. For this, we have used the real-time configuration of this model currently running at the CEAM Foundation. To carry out the model verification process, we have analysed not only the global behaviour of the model for the whole Valencia Region, but also its behaviour for the individual stations distributed within this area. The study has been performed for the summer forecast period of 1 June - 30 September, 2007. The results obtained are encouraging and indicate a good agreement between the observed and simulated maximum temperatures. Moreover, the model captures quite well the temperatures in the extreme heat episodes. Acknowledgement. This work was supported by "GRACCIE" (CSD2007-00067, Programa Consolider-Ingenio 2010), by the Spanish Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia, contract number CGL2005-03386/CLI, and by the Regional Government of Valencia Conselleria de Sanitat, contract "Simulación de las olas de calor e invasiones de frío y su regionalización en la Comunidad Valenciana" ("Heat wave and cold invasion simulation and their regionalization at Valencia Region"). The CEAM Foundation is supported by the Generalitat Valenciana and BANCAIXA (Valencia, Spain).

Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future maximum and minimum temperature over the Haihe River Bain, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Tiezhu; Shen, Zhenyao; Heng, Lee; Dercon, Gerd

2016-04-01

Future climate change information is important to formulate adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change. In this study, a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was established using both NCEP reanalysis data and ground observations (daily maximum and minimum temperature) during the period 1971-2010, and then calibrated model was applied to generate the future maximum and minimum temperature projections using predictors from the two CMIP5 models (MPI-ESM-LR and CNRM-CM5) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) during the period 2011-2100 for the Haihe River Basin, China. Compared to the baseline period, future change in annual and seasonal maximum and minimum temperature was computed after bias correction. The spatial distribution and trend change of annual maximum and minimum temperature were also analyzed using ensemble projections. The results shows that: (1)The downscaling model had a good applicability on reproducing daily and monthly mean maximum and minimum temperature over the whole basin. (2) Bias was observed when using historical predictors from CMIP5 models and the performance of CNRM-CM5 was a little worse than that of MPI-ESM-LR. (3) The change in annual mean maximum and minimum temperature under the two scenarios in 2020s, 2050s and 2070s will increase and magnitude of maximum temperature will be higher than minimum temperature. (4) The increase in temperature in the mountains and along the coastline is remarkably high than the other parts of the studies basin. (5) For annual maximum and minimum temperature, the significant upward trend will be obtained under RCP 8.5 scenario and the magnitude will be 0.37 and 0.39 ℃ per decade, respectively; the increase in magnitude under RCP 2.6 scenario will be upward in 2020s and then decrease in 2050s and 2070s, and the magnitude will be 0.01 and 0.01℃ per decade, respectively.

Beale AFB, Marysville, California Revised Uniform Summary of Surface Weather Observations (RUSSWO) Parts A-F.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-08-19

versus Visibility; Sky Cover; ( E ) Psychrometric Summaries (daily maximum and minimum temperatures, extreme maximum and minimum temperatures, psychrometric...frequency of occurance or cumulative percentage frequency of occuring tables. UNCLASSIFIED SCUPU)?y CLASaIFICATION OF THIS PAGE(Waht Dat E moli A - I...i,. -t’ r .corvi or QL.;V.A I-)tic ai t r’& iolL; recUl’d Et. Lxki-dGiuI ii.Trly ii~tervais. DAILY OBSERVATIONS S- t tr’ o. re .;,:cLt e , !’ru: at

Using Multiple Metrics to Analyze Trends and Sensitivity of Climate Variability in New York City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, J.; Towey, K.; Booth, J. F.; Baez, S. D.

2017-12-01

As the overall temperature of Earth continues to warm, changes in the Earth's climate are being observed through extreme weather events, such as heavy precipitation events and heat waves. This study examines the daily precipitation and temperature record of the greater New York City region during the 1979-2014 period. Daily station observations from three greater New York City airports: John F. Kennedy (JFK), LaGuardia (LGA) and Newark (EWR), are used in this study. Multiple statistical metrics are used in this study to analyze trends and variability in temperature and precipitation in the greater New York City region. The temperature climatology reveals a distinct seasonal cycle, while the precipitation climatology exhibits greater annual variability. Two types of thresholds are used to examine the variability of extreme events: extreme threshold and daily anomaly threshold. The extreme threshold indicates how the strength of the overall maximum is changing whereas the daily anomaly threshold indicates if the strength of the daily maximum is changing over time. We observed an increase in the frequency of anomalous daily precipitation events over the last 36 years, with the greatest frequency occurring in 2011. The most extreme precipitation events occur during the months of late summer through early fall, with approximately four expected extreme events occurring per year during the summer and fall. For temperature, the greatest frequency and variation in temperature anomalies occur during winter and spring. In addition, temperature variance is also analyzed to determine if there is greater day-to-day temperature variability today than in the past.

A basin-scale approach to estimating stream temperatures of tributaries to the lower Klamath River, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, L.E.; Flint, A.L.

2008-01-01

Stream temperature is an important component of salmonid habitat and is often above levels suitable for fish survival in the Lower Klamath River in northern California. The objective of this study was to provide boundary conditions for models that are assessing stream temperature on the main stem for the purpose of developing strategies to manage stream conditions using Total Maximum Daily Loads. For model input, hourly stream temperatures for 36 tributaries were estimated for 1 Jan. 2001 through 31 Oct. 2004. A basin-scale approach incorporating spatially distributed energy balance data was used to estimate the stream temperatures with measured air temperature and relative humidity data and simulated solar radiation, including topographic shading and corrections for cloudiness. Regression models were developed on the basis of available stream temperature data to predict temperatures for unmeasured periods of time and for unmeasured streams. The most significant factor in matching measured minimum and maximum stream temperatures was the seasonality of the estimate. Adding minimum and maximum air temperature to the regression model improved the estimate, and air temperature data over the region are available and easily distributed spatially. The addition of simulated solar radiation and vapor saturation deficit to the regression model significantly improved predictions of maximum stream temperature but was not required to predict minimum stream temperature. The average SE in estimated maximum daily stream temperature for the individual basins was 0.9 ?? 0.6??C at the 95% confidence interval. Copyright ?? 2008 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Preliminary Assessment Report for U.S. Army Reserve Center, Manitowoc, Wisconsin

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-12-01

cold, with mean maximum daily temperatures I around 30°F and daily temperatures typically in lower teens . Mean annual precipitation is around 30 inches...of them. The drums are accessible to anyone. We worry about the potential of vandalism . The AMSA does not have any other space to store them. Joan

Trends in extreme daily temperatures and humidex index in the United Arab Emirates over 1948-2014.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, H. W.; Ouarda, T.

2015-12-01

This study deals with the analysis of the characteristics of extreme temperature events in the Middle East, using NCEP reanalysis gridded data, for the summer (May-October) and winter (November-April) seasons. Trends in the occurrences of three types of heat spells during 1948-2014 are studied by both Linear Regression (LR) and Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Changes in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) are also investigated. To better understand the effects of heat spells on public health, the Humidex, a combination index of ambient temperature and relative humidity, is also used. Using percentile threshold, temperature (Humidex) Type-A and Type-B heat spells are defined respectively by daily maximum and minimum temperature (Humidex). Type-C heat spells are defined as the joint occurrence of Type-A and Type-B heat spells at the same time. In the Middle East, it is found that no coherent trend in temperature Type-A heat spells is observed. However, the occurrences of temperature Type-B and C heat spells have consistently increased since 1948. For Humidex heat spells, coherently increased activities of all three types of heat spells are observed in the area. During the summer, the magnitude of the positive trends in Humidex heat spells are generally stronger than temperature heat spells. More than half of the locations in the area show significantly negative DTR trends in the summer, but the trends vary according to the region in the winter. Annual mean temperature has increased an average by 0.5°C, but it is mainly associated with the daily minimum temperature which has warmed up by 0.84°C.Daily maximum temperature showed no significant trends. The warming is hence stronger in minimum temperatures than in maximum temperatures resulting in a decrease in DTR by 0.16 °C per decade. This study indicates hence that the UAE has not become hotter, but it has become less cold during 1948 to 2014.

The creation of future daily gridded datasets of precipitation and temperature with a spatial weather generator, Cyprus 2020-2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camera, Corrado; Bruggeman, Adriana; Hadjinicolaou, Panos; Pashiardis, Stelios; Lange, Manfred

2014-05-01

High-resolution gridded daily datasets are essential for natural resource management and the analysis of climate changes and their effects. This study aimed to create gridded datasets of daily precipitation and daily minimum and maximum temperature, for the future (2020-2050). The horizontal resolution of the developed datasets is 1 x 1 km2, covering the area under control of the Republic of Cyprus (5.760 km2). The study is divided into two parts. The first consists of the evaluation of the performance of different interpolation techniques for daily rainfall and temperature data (1980-2010) for the creation of the gridded datasets. Rainfall data recorded at 145 stations and temperature data from 34 stations were used. For precipitation, inverse distance weighting (IDW) performs best for local events, while a combination of step-wise geographically weighted regression and IDW proves to be the best method for large scale events. For minimum and maximum temperature, a combination of step-wise linear multiple regression and thin plate splines is recognized as the best method. Six Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the A1B SRES emission scenario from the EU ENSEMBLE project database were selected as sources for future climate projections. The RCMs were evaluated for their capacity to simulate Cyprus climatology for the period 1980-2010. Data for the period 2020-2050 from the three best performing RCMs were downscaled, using the change factors approach, at the location of observational stations. Daily time series were created with a stochastic rainfall and temperature generator. The RainSim V3 software (Burton et al., 2008) was used to generate spatial-temporal coherent rainfall fields. The temperature generator was developed in R and modeled temperature as a weakly stationary process with the daily mean and standard deviation conditioned on the wet and dry state of the day (Richardson, 1981). Finally gridded datasets depicting projected future climate conditions were created with the identified best interpolation methods. The difference between the input and simulated mean daily rainfall, averaged over all the stations, was 0.03 mm (2.2%), while the error related to the number of dry days was 2 (0.6%). For mean daily minimum temperature the error was 0.005 ºC (0.04%), while for maximum temperature it was 0.01 ºC (0.04%). Overall, the weather generators were found to be reliable instruments for the downscaling of precipitation and temperature. The resulting datasets indicate a decrease of the mean annual rainfall over the study area between 5 and 70 mm (1-15%) for 2020-2050, relative to 1980-2010. Average annual minimum and maximum temperature over the Republic of Cyprus are projected to increase between 1.2 and 1.5 ºC. The dataset is currently used to compute agricultural production and water use indicators, as part of the AGWATER project (AEIFORIA/GEORGO/0311(BIE)/06), co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund and the Republic of Cyprus through the Research Promotion Foundation. Burton, A., Kilsby, C.G., Fowler, H.J., Cowpertwait, P.S.P., and O'Connell, P.E.: RainSim: A spatial-temporal stochastic rainfall modelling system. Environ. Model. Software 23, 1356-1369, 2008 Richardson, C.W.: Stochastic simulation of daily precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation. Water Resour. Res. 17, 182-190, 1981.

Comparative evaluation of human heat stress indices on selected hospital admissions in Sydney, Australia.

PubMed

Goldie, James; Alexander, Lisa; Lewis, Sophie C; Sherwood, Steven

2017-08-01

To find appropriate regression model specifications for counts of the daily hospital admissions of a Sydney cohort and determine which human heat stress indices best improve the models' fit. We built parent models of eight daily counts of admission records using weather station observations, census population estimates and public holiday data. We added heat stress indices; models with lower Akaike Information Criterion scores were judged a better fit. Five of the eight parent models demonstrated adequate fit. Daily maximum Simplified Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (sWBGT) consistently improved fit more than most other indices; temperature and heatwave indices also modelled some health outcomes well. Humidity and heat-humidity indices better fit counts of patients who died following admission. Maximum sWBGT is an ideal measure of heat stress for these types of Sydney hospital admissions. Simple temperature indices are a good fallback where a narrower range of conditions is investigated. Implications for public health: This study confirms the importance of selecting appropriate heat stress indices for modelling. Epidemiologists projecting Sydney hospital admissions should use maximum sWBGT as a common measure of heat stress. Health organisations interested in short-range forecasting may prefer simple temperature indices. © 2017 The Authors.

Intra-Seasonal Variability of Climate and Peasant Perception of Climate Change in Massili Basin in Burkina Faso.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kabore Bontogho, P. E.

2014-12-01

Knowledge of climate variability is relevant and challenging for farmers, decision makers and population in general. Ninety percent of Burkina Faso active population is engaged in agriculture and livestock, which accounts for 39% of gross domestic product. Located between the coordinates 1o15'-1o55' West and 12o17'- 12o50'North, Massili basin includes Ouagadougou the capital and has four dams, of which the most important dam, Loumbila is used for the capital water supply and irrigation. A change of climate may affect the water resources most likely limit the access to safe water. In order to characterize Massili basin climate variability, daily temperature and precipitation over 1960 to 2012 was analyzed using long-term records from the Ouagadougou synoptic station. By applying R-climdex and instat tools, indices were calculated by a consistent approach recommended by the World Meteorological Organization Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. The precipitation parameters computed were: the maximum 5-day precipitationamount; the number of days with precipitation amount ≥50 mm ; the maximum precipitation amount in consecutive wet days with RR≥ 1mm; the consecutives dry days;the extremely wet days ; the extreme precipitation in one day, the total precipitation in wet days; the temperature indices computed were : the maximum of the maximum daily temperature, the minimum of daily maximum temperature,the minimum of daily minimum temperature,the cold spell duration indices and the warm spell duration indicator. Results show a slight increase of the maximum 5-day precipitation, maximum precipitation amount in consecutive wet days with RR≥1mm, the onset delayed and the cessation is earlier meaning that the rainfall period is shortening. The total precipitationwas decreased in the basin but there is a slight increase in the occurrence of extremely wet days. CSDI is decreasing while warm spell duration indices are increasing. In parallel of the data analysis, a survey of 200 peasant spread within 20 villages was done to assess their perception on climate change. Farmers perception corroborate with the above results as their majority describes climate change as decrease of rainfall (79%) and increase of temperature (99%). In addition, all farmers agreed that more floods are occurring.

Association between high temperature and mortality in metropolitan areas of four cities in various climatic zones in China: a time-series study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Numerous studies have reported on the associations between ambient temperatures and mortality. However, few multi-city studies have been conducted in developing countries including China. This study aimed to examine the association between high temperature and mortality outcomes in four cities with different climatic characteristics in China to identify the most vulnerable population, detect the threshold temperatures, and provide scientific evidence for public health policy implementations to respond to challenges from extreme heat. Methods A semi-parametric generalized additive model (GAM) with a Poisson distribution was used to analyze the impacts of the daily maximum temperature over the threshold on mortality after controlling for covariates including time trends, day of the week (DOW), humidity, daily temperature range, and outdoor air pollution. Results The temperature thresholds for all-cause mortality were 29°C, 35°C, 33°C and 34°C for Harbin, Nanjing, Shenzhen and Chongqing, respectively. After adjusting for potential confounders including air pollution, strong associations between daily maximum temperature and daily mortality from all-cause, cardiovascular, endocrine and metabolic outcomes, and particularly diabetes, were observed in different geographical cities, with increases of 3.2-5.5%, 4.6-7.5% and 12.5-31.9% (with 14.7-29.2% in diabetes), respectively, with each 1°C increment in the daily maximum temperature over the threshold. A stronger temperature-associated mortality was detected in females compared to males. Additionally, both the population over 55 years and younger adults aged 30 to 54 years reported significant heat-mortality associations. Conclusions Extreme heat is becoming a huge threat to public health and human welfare due to the strong temperature-mortality associations in China. Climate change with increasing temperatures may make the situation worse. Relevant public health strategies and an early extreme weather and health warning system should be developed and improved at an early stage to prevent and reduce the health risks due to extreme weather and climate change in China, given its huge population, diverse geographic distribution and unbalanced socioeconomic status with various climatic characteristics. PMID:25103276

Association between high temperature and mortality in metropolitan areas of four cities in various climatic zones in China: a time-series study.

PubMed

Li, Yonghong; Cheng, Yibin; Cui, Guoquan; Peng, Chaoqiong; Xu, Yan; Wang, Yulin; Liu, Yingchun; Liu, Jingyi; Li, Chengcheng; Wu, Zhen; Bi, Peng; Jin, Yinlong

2014-08-07

Numerous studies have reported on the associations between ambient temperatures and mortality. However, few multi-city studies have been conducted in developing countries including China. This study aimed to examine the association between high temperature and mortality outcomes in four cities with different climatic characteristics in China to identify the most vulnerable population, detect the threshold temperatures, and provide scientific evidence for public health policy implementations to respond to challenges from extreme heat. A semi-parametric generalized additive model (GAM) with a Poisson distribution was used to analyze the impacts of the daily maximum temperature over the threshold on mortality after controlling for covariates including time trends, day of the week (DOW), humidity, daily temperature range, and outdoor air pollution. The temperature thresholds for all-cause mortality were 29°C, 35°C, 33°C and 34°C for Harbin, Nanjing, Shenzhen and Chongqing, respectively. After adjusting for potential confounders including air pollution, strong associations between daily maximum temperature and daily mortality from all-cause, cardiovascular, endocrine and metabolic outcomes, and particularly diabetes, were observed in different geographical cities, with increases of 3.2-5.5%, 4.6-7.5% and 12.5-31.9% (with 14.7-29.2% in diabetes), respectively, with each 1°C increment in the daily maximum temperature over the threshold. A stronger temperature-associated mortality was detected in females compared to males. Additionally, both the population over 55 years and younger adults aged 30 to 54 years reported significant heat-mortality associations. Extreme heat is becoming a huge threat to public health and human welfare due to the strong temperature-mortality associations in China. Climate change with increasing temperatures may make the situation worse. Relevant public health strategies and an early extreme weather and health warning system should be developed and improved at an early stage to prevent and reduce the health risks due to extreme weather and climate change in China, given its huge population, diverse geographic distribution and unbalanced socioeconomic status with various climatic characteristics.

Thermal characteristics of wild and captive Micronesian Kingfisher nesting habitats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kesler, Dylan C.; Haig, Susan M.

2004-01-01

To provide information for managing the captive population of endangered Guam Micronesian kingfishers (Halcyon cinnamomina cinnamomina), four biologically relevant thermal metrics were compared among captive facilities on the United States mainland and habitats used by wild Micronesian kingfishers on the island of Pohnpei (H. c. reichenbachii), Federated States of Micronesia. Additionally, aviaries where kingfishers laid eggs were compared to those in which birds did not attempt to breed. Compared to aviaries, habitats used by wild Pohnpei kingfishers had 3.2A?C higher daily maximum and minimum temperatures and the proportion of time when temperatures were in the birds' thermoneutral zone was 45% greater. No differences were found in the magnitude of temperature fluctuation in captive and wild environments. In captive environments in which birds bred, daily maximum temperatures were 2.1A?C higher and temperatures were within the thermoneutral zone 25% more often than in the aviaries where the kingfishers did not breed. No differences were found in the magnitude of temperature fluctuation or the daily minimum temperature. Results suggest that the thermal environment has the potential to influence reproduction, and that consideration should be given to increasing temperatures in captive breeding facilities to improve propagation of the endangered Micronesian kingfisher.

Retrieving air humidity, global solar radiation, and reference evapotranspiration from daily temperatures: development and validation of new methods for Mexico. Part III: reference evapotranspiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lobit, P.; Gómez Tagle, A.; Bautista, F.; Lhomme, J. P.

2017-07-01

We evaluated two methods to estimate evapotranspiration (ETo) from minimal weather records (daily maximum and minimum temperatures) in Mexico: a modified reduced set FAO-Penman-Monteith method (Allen et al. 1998, Rome, Italy) and the Hargreaves and Samani (Appl Eng Agric 1(2): 96-99, 1985) method. In the reduced set method, the FAO-Penman-Monteith equation was applied with vapor pressure and radiation estimated from temperature data using two new models (see first and second articles in this series): mean temperature as the average of maximum and minimum temperature corrected for a constant bias and constant wind speed. The Hargreaves-Samani method combines two empirical relationships: one between diurnal temperature range ΔT and shortwave radiation Rs, and another one between average temperature and the ratio ETo/Rs: both relationships were evaluated and calibrated for Mexico. After performing a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the impact of different approximations on the estimation of Rs and ETo, several model combinations were tested to predict ETo from daily maximum and minimum temperature alone. The quality of fit of these models was evaluated on 786 weather stations covering most of the territory of Mexico. The best method was found to be a combination of the FAO-Penman-Monteith reduced set equation with the new radiation estimation and vapor pressure model. As an alternative, a recalibration of the Hargreaves-Samani equation is proposed.

Quantifying Observed Temperature Extremes in the Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sura, P.; Stefanova, L. B.; Griffin, M.; Worsnop, R.

2011-12-01

There is broad consensus that the most hazardous effects of climate change are related to a potential increase (in frequency and/or intensity) of extreme weather and climate events. In particular, the statistics of regional daily temperature extremes are of practical interest for the agricultural community and energy suppliers. This is notably true for the Southeastern United States where winter hard freezes are a relatively rare and potentially catastrophic event. Here we use a long record of quality-controlled observations collected from 272 National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative Observing Network (COOP) stations throughout Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and South and North Carolina to provide a detailed climatology of temperature extremes in the Southeastern United States. We employ two complementary approaches. First, we analyze the effect of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the non-Gaussian (i.e. higher order) statistics of wintertime daily minimum and maximum temperatures. We find a significant and spatially varying impact of ENSO and AO on the non-Gaussian statistics of daily maximum and minimum temperatures throughout the domain. Second, the extremes of the temperature distributions are studied by calculating the 1st and 99th percentiles, and then analyzing the number of days with record low/high temperatures per season. This analysis of daily temperature extremes reveals oscillating, multi-decadal patterns with spatially varying centers of action.

Modeled future peak streamflows in four coastal Maine rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.

2013-01-01

To safely and economically design bridges and culverts, it is necessary to compute the magnitude of peak streamflows that have specified annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs). Annual precipitation and air temperature in the northeastern United States are, in general, projected to increase during the 21st century. It is therefore important for engineers and resource managers to understand how peak flows may change in the future. This report, prepared in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation (MaineDOT), presents modeled changes in peak flows at four basins in coastal Maine on the basis of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation. To estimate future peak streamflows at the four basins in this study, historical values for climate (temperature and precipitation) in the basins were adjusted by different amounts and input to a hydrologic model of each study basin. To encompass the projected changes in climate in coastal Maine by the end of the 21st century, air temperatures were adjusted by four different amounts, from -3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (ºF) (-2 degrees Celsius (ºC)) to +10.8 ºF (+6 ºC) of observed temperatures. Precipitation was adjusted by three different percentage values from -15 percent to +30 percent of observed precipitation. The resulting 20 combinations of temperature and precipitation changes (includes the no-change scenarios) were input to Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) watershed models, and annual daily maximum peak flows were calculated for each combination. Modeled peak flows from the adjusted changes in temperature and precipitation were compared to unadjusted (historical) modeled peak flows. Annual daily maximum peak flows increase or decrease, depending on whether temperature or precipitation is adjusted; increases in air temperature (with no change in precipitation) lead to decreases in peak flows, whereas increases in precipitation (with no change in temperature) lead to increases in peak flows. As the magnitude of air temperatures increase in the four basins, peak flows decrease by larger amounts. If precipitation is held constant (no change from historical values), 17 to 26 percent decreases in peak flow occur at the four basins when temperature is increased by 7.2°F. If temperature is held constant, 26 to 38 percent increases in peak flow result from a 15-percent increase in precipitation. The largest decreases in peak flows at the four basins result from 15-percent decreases in precipitation combined with temperature increases of 10.8°F. The largest increases in peak flows generally result from 30-percent increases in precipitation combined with 3.6 °F decreases in temperatures. In many cases when temperature and precipitation both increase, small increases or decreases in annual daily maximum peak flows result. For likely changes projected for the northeastern United States for the middle of the 21st century (temperature increase of 3.6 °F and precipitation increases of 0 to 15 percent), peak-flow changes at the four coastal Maine basins in this study are modeled to be evenly distributed between increases and decreases of less than 25 percent. Peak flows with 50-percent and 1-percent AEPs (equivalent to 2-year and 100-year recurrence interval peak flows, respectively) were calculated for the four basins in the study using the PRMS-modeled annual daily maximum peak flows. Modeled peak flows with 50-percent and 1-percent AEPs with adjusted temperatures and precipitation were compared to unadjusted (historical) modeled values. Changes in peak flows with 50-percent AEPs are similar to changes in annual daily maximum peak flow; changes in peak flows with 1-percent AEPs are similar in pattern to changes in annual daily maximum peak flow, but some of the changes associated with increasing precipitation are much larger than changes in annual daily maximum peak flow. Substantial decreases in maximum annual winter snowpack water equivalent are modeled to occur with increasing air temperatures at the four basins in the study. (Snowpack is the snow on the ground that accumulates during a winter, and water equivalent is the amount of water in a snowpack if it were melted.) The decrease in modeled peak flows with increasing air temperature, given no change in precipitation amount, is likely caused by these decreases in winter snowpack and resulting decreases in snowmelt runoff. This Scientific Investigations Report, prepared in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation, presents a summary of modeled changes in peak flows at four basins in coastal Maine on the basis of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation. The full Fact Sheet (Hodgkins and Dudley, 2013) is available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2013/3021/.

Torrejon AB, Madrid, Spain. revised uniform summary of surface weather observations (RUSSWO). parts a-f. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1978-10-03

This report is a six-part statistical summary of surface weather observations for Torrejon AB, Madrid Spain. It contains the following parts: (A) Weather Conditions; Atmospheric Phenomena; (B) Precipitation, Snowfall and Snow Depth (daily amounts and extreme values); (C) Surface winds; (D) Ceiling Versus Visibility; Sky Cover; (E) Psychrometric Summaries (daily maximum and minimum temperatures, extreme maximum and minimum temperatures, psychrometric summary of wet-bulb temperature depression versus dry-bulb temperature, means and standard deviations of dry-bulb, wet-bulb and dew-point temperatures and relative humidity); and (F) Pressure Summary (means, standard, deviations, and observation counts of station pressure and sea-level pressure). Data in thismore » report are presented in tabular form, in most cases in percentage frequency of occurrence or cumulative percentage frequency of occurrence tables.« less

Daily temperature records from a mesonet in the foothills of the Canadian Rocky Mountains, 2005-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Wendy H.; Marshall, Shawn J.; Whitehead, Terri L.; Fargey, Shannon E.

2018-03-01

Near-surface air temperatures were monitored from 2005 to 2010 in a mesoscale network of 230 sites in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains in southwestern Alberta, Canada. The monitoring network covers a range of elevations from 890 to 2880 m above sea level and an area of about 18 000 km2, sampling a variety of topographic settings and surface environments with an average spatial density of one station per 78 km2. This paper presents the multiyear temperature dataset from this study, with minimum, maximum, and mean daily temperature data available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.880611. In this paper, we describe the quality control and processing methods used to clean and filter the data and assess its accuracy. Overall data coverage for the study period is 91 %. We introduce a weather-system-dependent gap-filling technique to estimate the missing 9 % of data. Monthly and seasonal distributions of minimum, maximum, and mean daily temperature lapse rates are shown for the region.

Stream-temperature patterns of the Muddy Creek basin, Anne Arundel County, Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pluhowski, E.J.

1981-01-01

Using a water-balance equation based on a 4.25-year gaging-station record on North Fork Muddy Creek, the following mean annual values were obtained for the Muddy Creek basin: precipitation, 49.0 inches; evapotranspiration, 28.0 inches; runoff, 18.5 inches; and underflow, 2.5 inches. Average freshwater outflow from the Muddy Creek basin to the Rhode River estuary was 12.2 cfs during the period October 1, 1971, to December 31, 1975. Harmonic equations were used to describe seasonal maximum and minimum stream-temperature patterns at 12 sites in the basin. These equations were fitted to continuous water-temperature data obtained periodically at each site between November 1970 and June 1978. The harmonic equations explain at least 78 percent of the variance in maximum stream temperatures and 81 percent of the variance in minimum temperatures. Standard errors of estimate averaged 2.3C (Celsius) for daily maximum water temperatures and 2.1C for daily minimum temperatures. Mean annual water temperatures developed for a 5.4-year base period ranged from 11.9C at Muddy Creek to 13.1C at Many Fork Branch. The largest variations in stream temperatures were detected at thermograph sites below ponded reaches and where forest coverage was sparse or missing. At most sites the largest variations in daily water temperatures were recorded in April whereas the smallest were in September and October. The low thermal inertia of streams in the Muddy Creek basin tends to amplify the impact of surface energy-exchange processes on short-period stream-temperature patterns. Thus, in response to meteorologic events, wide ranging stream-temperature perturbations of as much as 6C have been documented in the basin. (USGS)

Temperature-induced excess mortality in Moscow, Russia.

PubMed

Revich, Boris; Shaposhnikov, Dmitri

2008-05-01

After considering the observed long-term trends in average monthly temperatures distribution in Moscow, the authors evaluated how acute mortality responded to changes in daily average, minimum and maximum temperatures throughout the year, and identified vulnerable population groups, by age and causes of death. A plot of the basic mortality-temperature relationship indicated that this relationship was V-shaped with the minimum around 18 degrees C. Each 1 degree C increment of average daily temperature above 18 degrees C resulted in an increase in deaths from all non-accidental causes by 2.8%, from coronary heart disease by 2.7%, from cerebrovascular diseases by 4.7%, and from respiratory diseases by 8.7%, with a lag of 0 or 1 day. Each 1 degrees C drop of average daily temperature from +18 degrees C to -10 degrees C resulted in an increase in deaths from all non-accidental causes by 0.49%, from coronary heart disease by 0.57%, from cerebrovascular diseases by 0.78%, and from respiratory diseases by 1.5%, with lags of maximum association varying from 3 days for non-accidental mortality to 6 days for cerebrovascular mortality. In the age group 75+ years, corresponding risks were consistently higher by 13-30%. The authors also estimated the increase in non-accidental deaths against the variation of daily temperatures. For each 1 degrees C increase of variation of temperature throughout the day, mortality increased by 0.3-1.9%, depending on other assumptions of the model.

Temperature-induced excess mortality in Moscow, Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revich, Boris; Shaposhnikov, Dmitri

2008-05-01

After considering the observed long-term trends in average monthly temperatures distribution in Moscow, the authors evaluated how acute mortality responded to changes in daily average, minimum and maximum temperatures throughout the year, and identified vulnerable population groups, by age and causes of death. A plot of the basic mortality temperature relationship indicated that this relationship was V-shaped with the minimum around 18°C. Each 1°C increment of average daily temperature above 18°C resulted in an increase in deaths from all non-accidental causes by 2.8%, from coronary heart disease by 2.7%, from cerebrovascular diseases by 4.7%, and from respiratory diseases by 8.7%, with a lag of 0 or 1 day. Each 1°C drop of average daily temperature from +18°C to -10°C resulted in an increase in deaths from all non-accidental causes by 0.49%, from coronary heart disease by 0.57%, from cerebrovascular diseases by 0.78%, and from respiratory diseases by 1.5%, with lags of maximum association varying from 3 days for non-accidental mortality to 6 days for cerebrovascular mortality. In the age group 75+ years, corresponding risks were consistently higher by 13 30%. The authors also estimated the increase in non-accidental deaths against the variation of daily temperatures. For each 1°C increase of variation of temperature throughout the day, mortality increased by 0.3 1.9%, depending on other assumptions of the model.

The Effects of Data Gaps on the Calculated Monthly Mean Maximum and Minimum Temperatures in the Continental United States: A Spatial and Temporal Study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stooksbury, David E.; Idso, Craig D.; Hubbard, Kenneth G.

1999-05-01

Gaps in otherwise regularly scheduled observations are often referred to as missing data. This paper explores the spatial and temporal impacts that data gaps in the recorded daily maximum and minimum temperatures have on the calculated monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures. For this analysis 138 climate stations from the United States Historical Climatology Network Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data set were selected. The selected stations had no missing maximum or minimum temperature values during the period 1951-80. The monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures were calculated for each station for each month. For each month 1-10 consecutive days of data from each station were randomly removed. This was performed 30 times for each simulated gap period. The spatial and temporal impact of the 1-10-day data gaps were compared. The influence of data gaps is most pronounced in the continental regions during the winter and least pronounced in the southeast during the summer. In the north central plains, 10-day data gaps during January produce a standard deviation value greater than 2°C about the `true' mean. In the southeast, 10-day data gaps in July produce a standard deviation value less than 0.5°C about the mean. The results of this study will be of value in climate variability and climate trend research as well as climate assessment and impact studies.

Shearing at the end of summer affects body temperature of free-living Angora goats ( Capra aegagrus) more than does shearing at the end of winter.

PubMed

Hetem, R S; de Witt, B A; Fick, L G; Fuller, A; Kerley, G I H; Maloney, S K; Meyer, L C R; Mitchell, D

2009-07-01

Angora goats are known to be vulnerable to cold stress, especially after shearing, but their thermoregulatory responses to shearing have not been measured. We recorded activity, and abdominal and subcutaneous temperatures, for 10 days pre-shearing and post-shearing, in 10 Angora goats inhabiting the succulent thicket of the Eastern Cape, South Africa, in both March (late summer) and September (late winter). Within each season, environmental conditions were similar pre-shearing and post-shearing, but September was an average 5°C colder than March. Shearing resulted in a decreased mean (P < 0.0001), minimum (P < 0.0001) and maximum daily abdominal temperature (P < 0.0001). Paradoxically, the decrease in daily mean (P = 0.03) and maximum (P = 0.01) abdominal temperatures, from pre-shearing to post-shearing, was greater in March than in September. Daily amplitude of body temperature rhythm (P < 0.0001) and the maximum rate of abdominal temperature rise (P < 0.0001) increased from pre-shearing to post-shearing, resulting in an earlier diurnal peak in abdominal temperature (P = 0.001) post-shearing. These changes in amplitude, rate of abdominal temperature rise and time of diurnal peak in abdominal temperature suggest that the goats' thermoregulatory system was more labile after shearing. Mean daily subcutaneous temperatures also decreased post-shearing (P < 0.0001), despite our index goat selecting more stable microclimates after shearing in March (P = 0.03). Following shearing, there was an increased difference between abdominal and subcutaneous temperatures (P < 0.0001) at night, suggesting that the goats used peripheral vasoconstriction to limit heat loss. In addition to these temperature changes, mean daily activity increased nearly two-fold after March shearing, but not September shearing. This increased activity after March shearing was likely the result of an increased foraging time, food intake and metabolic rate, as suggested by the increased water influx (P = 0.0008). Thus, Angora goats entered a heat conservation mode after shearing in both March and September. That the transition from the fleeced to the shorn state had greater thermoregulatory consequences in March than in September may provide a mechanistic explanation for Angora goats' vulnerability to cold in summer.

Generating daily weather data for ecosystem modelling in the Congo River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petritsch, Richard; Pietsch, Stephan A.

2010-05-01

Daily weather data are an important constraint for diverse applications in ecosystem research. In particular, temperature and precipitation are the main drivers for forest ecosystem productivity. Mechanistic modelling theory heavily relies on daily values for minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, incident solar radiation and vapour pressure deficit. Although the number of climate measurement stations increased during the last centuries, there are still regions with limited climate data. For example, in the WMO database there are only 16 stations located in Gabon with daily weather measurements. Additionally, the available time series are heavily affected by measurement errors or missing values. In the WMO record for Gabon, on average every second day is missing. Monthly means are more robust and may be estimated over larger areas. Therefore, a good alternative is to interpolate monthly mean values using a sparse network of measurement stations, and based on these monthly data generate daily weather data with defined characteristics. The weather generator MarkSim was developed to produce climatological time series for crop modelling in the tropics. It provides daily values for maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and solar radiation. The monthly means can either be derived from the internal climate surfaces or prescribed as additional inputs. We compared the generated outputs observations from three climate stations in Gabon (Lastourville, Moanda and Mouilla) and found that maximum temperature and solar radiation were heavily overestimated during the long dry season. This is due to the internal dependency of the solar radiation estimates to precipitation. With no precipitation a cloudless sky is assumed and thus high incident solar radiation and a large diurnal temperature range. However, in reality it is cloudy in the Congo River Basin during the long dry season. Therefore, we applied a correction factor to solar radiation and temperature range based on the ratio of values on rainy days and days without rain, respectively. For assessing the impact of our correction, we simulated the ecosystem behaviour using the climate data from Lastourville, Moanda and Mouilla with the mechanistic ecosystem model Biome-BGC. Differences in terms of the carbon, nitrogen and water cycle were subsequently analysed and discussed.

Effect of heat waves on morbidity and mortality due to Parkinson's disease in Madrid: A time-series analysis.

PubMed

Linares, Cristina; Martinez-Martin, Pablo; Rodríguez-Blázquez, Carmen; Forjaz, Maria João; Carmona, Rocío; Díaz, Julio

2016-01-01

Parkinson's disease (PD) is one of the factors which are associated with a higher risk of mortality during heat waves. The use of certain neuroleptic medications to control some of this disease's complications would appear to be related to an increase in heat-related mortality. To analyse the relationship and quantify the short-term effect of high temperatures during heat wave episodes in Madrid on daily mortality and PD-related hospital admissions. We used an ecological time-series study and fit Poisson regression models. We analysed the daily number of deaths due to PD and the number of daily PD-related emergency hospital admissions in the city of Madrid, using maximum daily temperature (°C) as the main environmental variable and chemical air pollution as covariates. We controlled for trend, seasonalities, and the autoregressive nature of the series. There was a maximum daily temperature of 30°C at which PD-related admissions were at a minimum. Similarly, a temperature of 34°C coincides with an increase in the number of admissions. For PD-related admissions, the Relative Risk (RR) for every increase of 1°C above the threshold temperature was 1.13 IC95%:(1.03-1.23) at lags 1 and 5; and for daily PD-related mortality, the RR was 1.14 IC95%:(1.01-1.28) at lag 3. Our results indicate that suffering from PD is a risk factor that contributes to the excess morbidity and mortality associated with high temperatures, and is relevant from the standpoint of public health prevention plans. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does size matter? Comparison of body temperature and activity of free-living Arabian oryx (Oryx leucoryx) and the smaller Arabian sand gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa marica) in the Saudi desert.

PubMed

Hetem, Robyn Sheila; Strauss, Willem Maartin; Fick, Linda Gayle; Maloney, Shane Kevin; Meyer, Leith Carl Rodney; Shobrak, Mohammed; Fuller, Andrea; Mitchell, Duncan

2012-04-01

Heterothermy, a variability in body temperature beyond the normal limits of homeothermy, is widely viewed as a key adaptation of arid-adapted ungulates. However, desert ungulates with a small body mass, i.e. a relatively large surface area-to-volume ratio and a small thermal inertia, are theoretically less likely to employ adaptive heterothermy than are larger ungulates. We measured body temperature and activity patterns, using implanted data loggers, in free-ranging Arabian oryx (Oryx leucoryx, ±70 kg) and the smaller Arabian sand gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa marica, ±15 kg) inhabiting the same Arabian desert environment, at the same time. Compared to oryx, sand gazelle had higher mean daily body temperatures (F(1,6) = 47.3, P = 0.0005), higher minimum daily body temperatures (F(1,6) = 42.6, P = 0.0006) and higher maximum daily body temperatures (F(1,6) = 11.0, P = 0.02). Despite these differences, both species responded similarly to changes in environmental conditions. As predicted for adaptive heterothermy, maximum daily body temperature increased (F(1,6) = 84.0, P < 0.0001), minimum daily body temperature decreased (F(1,6) = 92.2, P < 0.0001), and daily body temperature amplitude increased (F(1,6) = 97.6, P < 0.0001) as conditions got progressively hotter and drier. There were no species differences in activity levels, however, both gazelle and oryx showed a biphasic or crepuscular rhythm during the warm wet season but shifted to a more nocturnal rhythm during the hot dry season. Activity was attenuated during the heat of the day at times when both species selected cool microclimates. These two species of Arabian ungulates employ heterothermy, cathemerality and shade seeking very similarly to survive the extreme, arid conditions of Arabian deserts, despite their size difference.

The impact of daily temperature on renal disease incidence: an ecological study.

PubMed

Borg, Matthew; Bi, Peng; Nitschke, Monika; Williams, Susan; McDonald, Stephen

2017-10-27

Extremely high temperatures over many consecutive days have been linked to an increase in renal disease in several cities. This is becoming increasingly relevant with heatwaves becoming longer, more intense, and more frequent with climate change. This study aimed to extend the known relationship between daily temperature and kidney disease to include the incidence of eight temperature-prone specific renal disease categories - total renal disease, urolithiasis, renal failure, acute kidney injury (AKI), chronic kidney disease (CKD), urinary tract infections (UTIs), lower urinary tract infections (LUTIs) and pyelonephritis. Daily data was acquired for maximum, minimum and average temperature over the period of 1 July 2003 to 31 March 2014 during the warm season (October to March) in Adelaide, South Australia. Data for daily admissions to all metropolitan hospitals for renal disease, including 83,519 emergency department admissions and 42,957 inpatient admissions, was also obtained. Renal outcomes were analyzed using time-stratified negative binomial regression models, with the results aggregated by day. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated for associations between the number of admissions and daily temperature. Increases in daily temperature per 1 °C were associated with an increased incidence for all renal disease categories except for pyelonephritis. Minimum temperature was associated with the greatest increase in renal disease followed by average temperature and then maximum temperature. A 1°C increase in daily minimum temperature was associated with an increase in daily emergency department admissions for AKI (IRR 1.037, 95% CI: 1.026-1.048), renal failure (IRR 1.030, 95% CI: 1.022-1.039), CKD (IRR 1.017, 95% CI: 1.001-1.033) urolithiasis (IRR 1.015, 95% CI: 1.010-1.020), total renal disease (IRR 1.009, 95% CI: 1.006-1.011), UTIs (IRR 1.004, 95% CI: 1.000-1.007) and LUTIs (IRR 1.003, 95% CI: 1.000-1.006). An increased frequency of renal disease, including urolithiasis, acute kidney injury and urinary tract infections, is predicted with increasing temperatures from climate change. These results have clinical and public health implications for the management of renal diseases and demand tailored health services. Future research is warranted to analyze individual renal diseases with more comprehensive information regarding renal risk factors, and studies examining mortality for specific renal diseases.

A novel approach for detecting heat waves: the Standardized Heat-Wave Index.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucchi, Marco; Petitta, Marcello; Calmanti, Sandro

2016-04-01

Extreme temperatures have an impact on the energy balance of any living organism and on the operational capabilities of critical infrastructures. The ability to capture the occurrence of extreme temperature events is therefore an essential property of a multi-hazard extreme climate indicator. In this paper we introduce a new index for the detection of such extreme temperature events called SHI (Standardized Heat-Wave Index), developed in the context of XCF project for the construction of a multi-hazard extreme climate indicator (ECI). SHI is a probabilistic index based on the analysis of maximum daily temperatures time series; it is standardized, enabling comparisons overs space/time and with other indices, and it is capable of describing both extreme cold and hot events. Given a particular location, SHI is constructed using the time series of local maximum daily temperatures with the following procedure: three-days cumulated maximum daily temperatures are assigned to each day of the time series; probabilities of occurrence in the same months the reference days belong to are computed for each of the previous calculated values; such probability values are thus projected on a standard normal distribution, obtaining our standardized indices. In this work we present results obtained using NCEP Reanalysis dataset for air temperature at sigma 0.995 level, which timespan ranges from 1948 to 2014. Given the specific framework of this work, the geographical focus of this study is limited to the African continent. We present a validation of the index by showing its use for monitoring heat-waves under different climate regimes.

Local-scale spatial modelling for interpolating climatic temperature variables to predict agricultural plant suitability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, Mathew A.; Hall, Andrew; Kidd, Darren; Minansy, Budiman

2016-05-01

Assessment of local spatial climatic variability is important in the planning of planting locations for horticultural crops. This study investigated three regression-based calibration methods (i.e. traditional versus two optimized methods) to relate short-term 12-month data series from 170 temperature loggers and 4 weather station sites with data series from nearby long-term Australian Bureau of Meteorology climate stations. The techniques trialled to interpolate climatic temperature variables, such as frost risk, growing degree days (GDDs) and chill hours, were regression kriging (RK), regression trees (RTs) and random forests (RFs). All three calibration methods produced accurate results, with the RK-based calibration method delivering the most accurate validation measures: coefficients of determination ( R 2) of 0.92, 0.97 and 0.95 and root-mean-square errors of 1.30, 0.80 and 1.31 °C, for daily minimum, daily maximum and hourly temperatures, respectively. Compared with the traditional method of calibration using direct linear regression between short-term and long-term stations, the RK-based calibration method improved R 2 and reduced root-mean-square error (RMSE) by at least 5 % and 0.47 °C for daily minimum temperature, 1 % and 0.23 °C for daily maximum temperature and 3 % and 0.33 °C for hourly temperature. Spatial modelling indicated insignificant differences between the interpolation methods, with the RK technique tending to be the slightly better method due to the high degree of spatial autocorrelation between logger sites.

Spatial statistical network models for stream and river temperature in New England, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Detenbeck, Naomi E.; Morrison, Alisa C.; Abele, Ralph W.; Kopp, Darin A.

2016-08-01

Watershed managers are challenged by the need for predictive temperature models with sufficient accuracy and geographic breadth for practical use. We described thermal regimes of New England rivers and streams based on a reduced set of metrics for the May-September growing season (July or August median temperature, diurnal rate of change, and magnitude and timing of growing season maximum) chosen through principal component analysis of 78 candidate metrics. We then developed and assessed spatial statistical models for each of these metrics, incorporating spatial autocorrelation based on both distance along the flow network and Euclidean distance between points. Calculation of spatial autocorrelation based on travel or retention time in place of network distance yielded tighter-fitting Torgegrams with less scatter but did not improve overall model prediction accuracy. We predicted monthly median July or August stream temperatures as a function of median air temperature, estimated urban heat island effect, shaded solar radiation, main channel slope, watershed storage (percent lake and wetland area), percent coarse-grained surficial deposits, and presence or maximum depth of a lake immediately upstream, with an overall root-mean-square prediction error of 1.4 and 1.5°C, respectively. Growing season maximum water temperature varied as a function of air temperature, local channel slope, shaded August solar radiation, imperviousness, and watershed storage. Predictive models for July or August daily range, maximum daily rate of change, and timing of growing season maximum were statistically significant but explained a much lower proportion of variance than the above models (5-14% of total).

Differences between true mean temperatures and means calculated with four different approaches: a case study from three Croatian stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonacci, Ognjen; Željković, Ivana

2018-01-01

Different countries use varied methods for daily mean temperature calculation. None of them assesses precisely the true daily mean temperature, which is defined as the integral of continuous temperature measurements in a day. Of special scientific as well as practical importance is to find out how temperatures calculated by different methods and approaches deviate from the true daily mean temperature. Five mean daily temperatures were calculated (T0, T1, T2, T3, T4) using five different equations. The mean of 24-h temperature observations during the calendar day is accepted to represent the true, daily mean T0. The differences Δ i between T0 and four other mean daily temperatures T1, T2, T3, and T4 were calculated and analysed. In the paper, analyses were done with hourly data measured in a period from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2014 (149,016 h, 192 months and 16 years) at three Croatian meteorological stations. The stations are situated in distinct climatological areas: Zagreb Grič in a mild climate, Zavižan in the cold mountain region and Dubrovnik in the hot Mediterranean. Influence of fog on the temperature is analysed. Special attention is given to analyses of extreme (maximum and minimum) daily differences occurred at three analysed stations. Selection of the fixed local hours, which is in use for calculation of mean daily temperature, plays a crucial role in diminishing of bias from the true daily temperature.

CPLFD-GDPT5: high-resolution gridded daily precipitation and temperature dataset for two largest Polish river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berezowski, T.; Szcześniak, M.; Kardel, I.; Michałowski, R.; Okruszko, T.; Mezghani, A.; Piniewski, M.

2015-12-01

The CHASE-PL Forcing Data-Gridded Daily Precipitation and Temperature Dataset-5 km (CPLFD-GDPT5) consists of 1951-2013 daily minimum and maximum air temperatures and precipitation totals interpolated onto a 5 km grid based on daily meteorological observations from Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW-PIB; Polish stations), Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD, German and Czech stations), ECAD and NOAA-NCDC (Slovak, Ukrainian and Belarus stations). The main purpose for constructing this product was the need for long-term aerial precipitation and temperature data for earth-system modelling, especially hydrological modelling. The spatial coverage is the union of Vistula and Odra basin and Polish territory. The number of available meteorological stations for precipitation and temperature varies in time from about 100 for temperature and 300 for precipitation in 1950 up to about 180 for temperature and 700 for precipitation in 1990. The precipitation dataset was corrected for snowfall and rainfall under-catch with the Richter method. The interpolation methods were: kriging with elevation as external drift for temperatures and indicator kriging combined with universal kriging for precipitation. The kriging cross-validation revealed low root mean squared errors expressed as a fraction of standard deviation (SD): 0.54 and 0.47 for minimum and maximum temperature, respectively and 0.79 for precipitation. The correlation scores were 0.84 for minimum temperatures, 0.88 for maximum temperatures and 0.65 for precipitation. The CPLFD-GDPT5 product is consistent with 1971-2000 climatic data published by IMGW-PIB. We also confirm good skill of the product for hydrological modelling by performing an application using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in the Vistula and Odra basins. Link to the dataset: http://data.3tu.nl/repository/uuid:e939aec0-bdd1-440f-bd1e-c49ff10d0a07

Predicting apricot phenology using meteorological data.

PubMed

Ruml, Mirjana; Milatović, Dragan; Vulić, Todor; Vuković, Ana

2011-09-01

The main objective of this study was to develop feasible, easy to apply models for early prediction of full flowering (FF) and maturing (MA) in apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.). Phenological data for 20 apricot cultivars grown in the Belgrade region were modeled against averages of daily temperature records over ten seasons for FF and eight seasons for MA. A much stronger correlation was found between the phenological timing and temperature at the very beginning than at the end of phenophases. Also, the length of developmental periods were better correlated to daily maximum than to daily minimum and mean air temperatures. Using prediction models based on daily maximum temperatures averaged over 30-, 45- and 60-day periods, starting from 1 January for FF prediction and from the date of FF for MA prediction, the onset of examined phenophases in apricot cultivars could be predicted from a few weeks to up to 2 months ahead with acceptable accuracy. The mean absolute differences between the observations and cross-validated predictions obtained by 30-, 45- and 60-day models were 8.6, 6.9 and 5.7 days for FF and 6.1, 3.6 and 2.8 days for MA, respectively. The validity of the results was confirmed using an independent data set for the year 2009.

Predicting apricot phenology using meteorological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruml, Mirjana; Milatović, Dragan; Vulić, Todor; Vuković, Ana

2011-09-01

The main objective of this study was to develop feasible, easy to apply models for early prediction of full flowering (FF) and maturing (MA) in apricot ( Prunus armeniaca L.). Phenological data for 20 apricot cultivars grown in the Belgrade region were modeled against averages of daily temperature records over ten seasons for FF and eight seasons for MA. A much stronger correlation was found between the phenological timing and temperature at the very beginning than at the end of phenophases. Also, the length of developmental periods were better correlated to daily maximum than to daily minimum and mean air temperatures. Using prediction models based on daily maximum temperatures averaged over 30-, 45- and 60-day periods, starting from 1 January for FF prediction and from the date of FF for MA prediction, the onset of examined phenophases in apricot cultivars could be predicted from a few weeks to up to 2 months ahead with acceptable accuracy. The mean absolute differences between the observations and cross-validated predictions obtained by 30-, 45- and 60-day models were 8.6, 6.9 and 5.7 days for FF and 6.1, 3.6 and 2.8 days for MA, respectively. The validity of the results was confirmed using an independent data set for the year 2009.

46 CFR 196.85-1 - Magazine operation and control.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...-1 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OCEANOGRAPHIC RESEARCH VESSELS... shall be inspected daily. Magazine inspection results and corrective action, when taken, shall be noted in the ship's log daily. Maximum and minimum temperatures for the previous 24-hour period shall be...

Utilization of Satellite Data to Identify and Monitor Changes in Frequency of Meteorological Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mast, J. C.; Dessler, A. E.

2017-12-01

Increases in temperature and climate variability due to human-induced climate change is increasing the frequency and magnitude of extreme heat events (i.e., heatwaves). This will have a detrimental impact on the health of human populations and habitability of certain land locations. Here we seek to utilize satellite data records to identify and monitor extreme heat events. We analyze satellite data sets (MODIS and AIRS land surface temperatures (LST) and water vapor profiles (WV)) due to their global coverage and stable calibration. Heat waves are identified based on the frequency of maximum daily temperatures above a threshold, determined as follows. Land surface temperatures are gridded into uniform latitude/longitude bins. Maximum daily temperatures per bin are determined and probability density functions (PDF) of these maxima are constructed monthly and seasonally. For each bin, a threshold is calculated at the 95th percentile of the PDF of maximum temperatures. Per each bin, an extreme heat event is defined based on the frequency of monthly and seasonal days exceeding the threshold. To account for the decreased ability of the human body to thermoregulate with increasing moisture, and to assess lethality of the heat events, we determine the wet-bulb temperature at the locations of extreme heat events. Preliminary results will be presented.

Heat Wave and Mortality: A Multicountry, Multicommunity Study

PubMed Central

Gasparrini, Antonio; Armstrong, Ben G.; Tawatsupa, Benjawan; Tobias, Aurelio; Lavigne, Eric; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Pan, Xiaochuan; Kim, Ho; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Wu, Chang-Fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel D.; Bell, Michelle L.; Scortichini, Matteo; Michelozzi, Paola; Punnasiri, Kornwipa; Li, Shanshan; Tian, Linwei; Garcia, Samuel David Osorio; Seposo, Xerxes; Overcenco, Ala; Zeka, Ariana; Goodman, Patrick; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Dung, Do Van; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Williams, Gail; Tong, Shilu

2017-01-01

Background: Few studies have examined variation in the associations between heat waves and mortality in an international context. Objectives: We aimed to systematically examine the impacts of heat waves on mortality with lag effects internationally. Methods: We collected daily data of temperature and mortality from 400 communities in 18 countries/regions and defined 12 types of heat waves by combining community-specific daily mean temperature ≥90th, 92.5th, 95th, and 97.5th percentiles of temperature with duration ≥2, 3, and 4 d. We used time-series analyses to estimate the community-specific heat wave–mortality relation over lags of 0–10 d. Then, we applied meta-analysis to pool heat wave effects at the country level for cumulative and lag effects for each type of heat wave definition. Results: Heat waves of all definitions had significant cumulative associations with mortality in all countries, but varied by community. The higher the temperature threshold used to define heat waves, the higher heat wave associations on mortality. However, heat wave duration did not modify the impacts. The association between heat waves and mortality appeared acutely and lasted for 3 and 4 d. Heat waves had higher associations with mortality in moderate cold and moderate hot areas than cold and hot areas. There were no added effects of heat waves on mortality in all countries/regions, except for Brazil, Moldova, and Taiwan. Heat waves defined by daily mean and maximum temperatures produced similar heat wave–mortality associations, but not daily minimum temperature. Conclusions: Results indicate that high temperatures create a substantial health burden, and effects of high temperatures over consecutive days are similar to what would be experienced if high temperature days occurred independently. People living in moderate cold and moderate hot areas are more sensitive to heat waves than those living in cold and hot areas. Daily mean and maximum temperatures had similar ability to define heat waves rather than minimum temperature. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1026 PMID:28886602

A comparison of climatological observing windows and their impact on detecting daily temperature extrema

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Žaknić-Ćatović, Ana; Gough, William A.

2018-04-01

Climatological observing window (COW) is defined as a time frame over which continuous or extreme air temperature measurements are collected. A 24-h time interval, ending at 00UTC or shifted to end at 06UTC, has been associated with difficulties in characterizing daily temperature extrema. A fixed 24-h COW used to obtain the temperature minima leads to potential misidentification due to fragmentation of "nighttime" into two subsequent nighttime periods due to the time discretization interval. The correct identification of air temperature extrema is achievable using a COW that identifies daily minimum over a single nighttime period and maximum over a single daytime period, as determined by sunrise and sunset. Due to a common absence of hourly air temperature observations, the accuracy of the mean temperature estimation is dependent on the accuracy of determination of diurnal air temperature extrema. Qualitative and quantitative criteria were used to examine the impact of the COW on detecting daily air temperature extrema. The timing of the 24-h observing window occasionally affects the determination of daily extrema through a mischaracterization of the diurnal minima and by extension can lead to errors in determining daily mean temperature. Hourly air temperature data for the time period from year 1987 to 2014, obtained from Toronto Buttonville Municipal Airport weather station, were used in analysis of COW impacts on detection of daily temperature extrema and calculation of annual temperature averages based on such extrema.

Variation in the sensitivity of organismal body temperature to climate change over local and geographic scales.

PubMed

Gilman, Sarah E; Wethey, David S; Helmuth, Brian

2006-06-20

Global climate change is expected to have broad ecological consequences for species and communities. Attempts to forecast these consequences usually assume that changes in air or water temperature will translate into equivalent changes in a species' organismal body temperature. This simple change is unlikely because an organism's body temperature is determined by a complex series of interactions between the organism and its environment. Using a biophysical model, validated with 5 years of field observations, we examined the relationship between environmental temperature change and body temperature of the intertidal mussel Mytilus californianus over 1,600 km of its geographic distribution. We found that at all locations examined simulated changes in air or water temperature always produced less than equivalent changes in the daily maximum mussel body temperature. Moreover, the magnitude of body temperature change was highly variable, both within and among locations. A simulated 1 degrees C increase in air or water temperature raised the maximum monthly average of daily body temperature maxima by 0.07-0.92 degrees C, depending on the geographic location, vertical position, and temperature variable. We combined these sensitivities with predicted climate change for 2100 and calculated increases in monthly average maximum body temperature of 0.97-4.12 degrees C, depending on location and climate change scenario. Thus geographic variation in body temperature sensitivity can modulate species' experiences of climate change and must be considered when predicting the biological consequences of climate change.

Role of resolution in regional climate change projections over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Ying; Wang, Guiling; Gao, Xuejie

2017-11-01

This paper investigates the sensitivity of projected future climate changes over China to the horizontal resolution of a regional climate model RegCM4.4 (RegCM), using RCP8.5 as an example. Model validation shows that RegCM performs better in reproducing the spatial distribution and magnitude of present-day temperature, precipitation and climate extremes than the driving global climate model HadGEM2-ES (HadGEM, at 1.875° × 1.25° degree resolution), but little difference is found between the simulations at 50 and 25 km resolutions. Comparison with observational data at different resolutions confirmed the added value of the RCM and finer model resolutions in better capturing the probability distribution of precipitation. However, HadGEM and RegCM at both resolutions project a similar pattern of significant future warming during both winter and summer, and a similar pattern of winter precipitation changes including dominant increase in most areas of northern China and little change or decrease in the southern part. Projected precipitation changes in summer diverge among the three models, especially over eastern China, with a general increase in HadGEM, little change in RegCM at 50 km, and a mix of increase and decrease in RegCM at 25 km resolution. Changes of temperature-related extremes (annual total number of daily maximum temperature > 25 °C, the maximum value of daily maximum temperature, the minimum value of daily minimum temperature in the three simulations especially in the two RegCM simulations are very similar to each other; so are the precipitation-related extremes (maximum consecutive dry days, maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation and extremely wet days' total amount). Overall, results from this study indicate a very low sensitivity of projected changes in this region to model resolution. While fine resolution is critical for capturing the spatial variability of the control climate, it may not be as important for capturing the climate response to homogeneous forcing (in this case greenhouse gas concentration changes).

Soil water content and evaporation determined by thermal parameters obtained from ground-based and remote measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reginato, R.; Idso, S.; Vedder, J.; Jackson, R.; Blanchard, M.; Goettelman, R.

1975-01-01

A procedure is presented for calculating 24-hour totals of evaporation from wet and drying soils. Its application requires a knowledge of the daily solar radiation, the maximum and minimum, air temperatures, moist surface albedo, and maximum and minimum surface temperatures. Tests of the technique on a bare field of Avondale loam at Phoenix, Arizona showed it to be independent of season.

Disaggregating from daily to sub-daily rainfall under a future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westra, S.; Evans, J.; Mehrotra, R.; Sharma, A.

2012-04-01

We describe an algorithm for disaggregating daily rainfall into sub-daily rainfall 'fragments' (continuous fine-resolution rainfall sequences whose total depth sums to the daily rainfall amount) under a future, warmer climate. The basis of the algorithm is re-sample sub-daily fragments from the historical record conditional on the total daily rainfall amount and a range of atmospheric predictors representative of the future climate. The logic is that as the atmosphere warms, future rainfall patterns will be more reflective of historical rainfall patterns which occurred on warmer days at the same location, or at locations which have an atmospheric profile more reflective of expected future conditions. When looking at the scaling from daily to sub-daily rainfall over the historical record, it was found that the relationship varied significantly by season and by location, with rainfall patterns on warmer seasons or at warmer locations typically showing more intense rain falling over shorter periods compared with cooler seasons and stations. Importantly, by regressing against atmospheric covariates such as temperature this effect was almost entirely eliminated, providing a basis for suggesting the approach may be valid when extrapolating sub-daily sequences to a future climate. The method of fragments algorithm was then applied to nine stations around Australia, and showed that when holding the total daily rainfall constant, the maximum intensity of a short duration (6 minute) rainfall increased by between 4.1% and 13.4% per degree change in temperature for the maximum six minute burst, between 3.1% and 6.8% for the maximum one hour burst, and between 1.5% and 3.5% for the fraction of the day with no rainfall. This highlights that a large proportion of the change to the distribution of precipitation in the future is likely to occur at sub-daily timescales, with significant implications for many hydrological systems.

Effect of daily fluctuations in ambient temperature on reproductive failure traits of Landrace and Yorkshire sows under Thai tropical environmental conditions.

PubMed

Jaichansukkit, Teerapong; Suwanasopee, Thanathip; Koonawootrittriron, Skorn; Tummaruk, Padet; Elzo, Mauricio A

2017-03-01

The aim of this study was to determine the effects of daily ranges and maximum ambient temperatures, and other risk factors on reproductive failure of Landrace (L) and Yorkshire (Y) sows under an open-house system in Thailand. Daily ambient temperatures were added to information on 35,579 litters from 5929 L sows and 1057 Y sows from three commercial herds. The average daily temperature ranges (ADT) and the average daily maximum temperatures (PEAK) in three gestation periods from the 35th day of gestation to parturition were classified. The considered reproductive failure traits were the occurrences of mummified fetuses (MM), stillborn piglets (STB), and piglet death losses (PDL) and an indicator trait for number of piglets born alive below the population mean (LBA). A multiple logistic regression model included farrowing herd-year-season (HYS), breed group of sow (BG), parity group (PAR), number of total piglets born (NTB), ADT1, ADT2, ADT3, PEAK1, PEAK2, and PEAK3 as fixed effects, while random effects were animal, repeated observations, and residual. Yorkshire sows had a higher occurrence of LBA than L sows (P = 0.01). The second to fifth parities sows had lower reproductive failures than other parities. The NTB regression coefficients of log-odds were positive (P < 0.01) for all traits. Narrower ranges of ADT3 increased the occurrence of MM, STB, and PDL (P < 0.01), while higher PEAK3 increased the occurrence of MM, STB, PDL, and LBA (P < 0.001). To reduce the risk of reproductive failures, particularly late in gestation, producers would need to closely monitor their temperature management strategies.

The impact of summer rainfall on the temperature gradient along the United States-Mexico border

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balling, Robert C., Jr.

1989-01-01

The international border running through the Sonoran Desert in southern Arizona and northern Sonora is marked by a sharp discontinuity in albedo and grass cover. The observed differences in surface properties are a result of long-term, severe overgrazing of the Mexican lands. Recently, investigators have shown the Mexican side of the border to have higher surface and air temperatures when compared to adjacent areas in the United State. The differences in temperatures appear to be more associated with differential evapotranspiration rates than with albedo changes along the border. In this study, the impact of summer rainfall on the observed seasonal and daily gradient in maximum temperature is examined. On a seasonal time scale, the temperature gradient increases with higher moisture levels, probably due to a vegetative response on the United States' side of the border; at the daily level, the gradient in maximum temperature decreases after a rain event as evaporation rates equalize between the countries. The results suggest that temperature differences between vegetated and overgrazed landscapes in arid areas are highly dependent upon the amount of moisture available for evapotranspiration.

Water Resources Data for California, 1965; Part 2: Water Quality Records

USGS Publications Warehouse

1965-01-01

Water quality information is presented for chemical quality, fluvial sediment, and water temperatures. The chemical quality includes concentrations of individual dissolved constituents and certain properties or characteristics such as hardness, sodium-adsorption-ratio, specific conductance, and pH. Fluvial sediment information is given for suspended-sediment discharges and concentrations and for particle-size distribution of suspended sediment and bed material. Water temperature data represent once-daily observations except for stations where a continuous temperature recorder furnishes information from which daily minimums and maximums are obtained.

Water Resources Data for California, 1966; Part 2: Water Quality Records

USGS Publications Warehouse

1967-01-01

Water-quality information is presented for chemical quality, fluvial sediment, and water temperatures. The chemical quality includes concentrations of individual dissolved constituents and certain properties or characteristics such as hardness, sodium-adsorption ratio, specific conductance, and pH. Fluvial-sediment information is given for suspended-sediment discharges and concentrations and for particle-size distribution of suspended sediment and bed material. Water-temperature data represent once-daily observations except for stations where a continuous temperature recorder furnishes information from which daily minimums and maximums are obtained.

Differences between true mean daily, monthly and annual air temperatures and air temperatures calculated with three equations: a case study from three Croatian stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonacci, Ognjen; Željković, Ivana; Trogrlić, Robert Šakić; Milković, Janja

2013-10-01

Differences between true mean daily, monthly and annual air temperatures T0 [Eq. (1)] and temperatures calculated with three different equations [(2), (3) and (4)] (commonly used in climatological practice) were investigated at three main meteorological Croatian stations from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2011. The stations are situated in the following three climatically distinct areas: (1) Zagreb-Grič (mild continental climate), (2) Zavižan (cold mountain climate), and (3) Dubrovnik (hot Mediterranean climate). T1 [Eq. (2)] and T3 [Eq. (4)] mean temperatures are defined by the algorithms based on the weighted means of temperatures measured at irregularly spaced, yet fixed hours. T2 [Eq. (3)] is the mean temperature defined as the average of daily maximum and minimum temperature. The equation as well as the time of observations used introduces a bias into mean temperatures. The largest differences occur for mean daily temperatures. The calculated daily difference value from all three equations and all analysed stations varies from -3.73 °C to +3.56 °C, from -1.39 °C to +0.79 °C for monthly differences and from -0.76 °C to +0.30 °C for annual differences.

Which metric of ambient ozone to predict daily mortality?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moshammer, Hanns; Hutter, Hans-Peter; Kundi, Michael

2013-02-01

It is well known that ozone concentration is associated with daily cause specific mortality. But which ozone metric is the best predictor of the daily variability in mortality? We performed a time series analysis on daily deaths (all causes, respiratory and cardiovascular causes as well as death in elderly 65+) in Vienna for the years 1991-2009. We controlled for seasonal and long term trend, day of the week, temperature and humidity using the same basic model for all pollutant metrics. We found model fit was best for same day variability of ozone concentration (calculated as the difference between daily hourly maximum and minimum) and hourly maximum. Of these the variability displayed a more linear dose-response function. Maximum 8 h moving average and daily mean value performed not so well. Nitrogen dioxide (daily mean) in comparison performed better when previous day values were assessed. Same day ozone and previous day nitrogen dioxide effect estimates did not confound each other. Variability in daily ozone levels or peak ozone levels seem to be a better proxy of a complex reactive secondary pollutant mixture than daily average ozone levels in the Middle European setting. If this finding is confirmed this would have implications for the setting of legally binding limit values.

Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khomenko, Inna

2016-04-01

Transportation not only affects climate, but are strongly influenced with the climate conditions, and key hubs of the transportation sector are cities. Transportation decision makers have an opportunity now to prepare for projected climate changes owing to development of emission scenarios. In the study impact of climate change on operation of road transport along highways are analyzed on the basis of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Data contains series of daily mean and maximum temperature, daily liquid (or mixed) and solid precipitation, daily mean relative humidity and daily mean and maximum wind speed, obtained for the period of 2011 to 2050 for 8 cities (Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Odesa, Ternopil, Vinnytsia and Voznesensk) situated down the highways. The highways of 'Odesa-Voznesensk-Dnipropetrovsk-Kharkiv' and 'Dnipropetrovsk-Kirovohrad-Vinnytsia-Khmelnytskyi-Ternopil' are considered. The first highway goes across the Black Sea Lowland, the Dnieper Upland and Dnieper Lowland, the other passes through the Dnieper and Volhynia-Podillia Uplands. The both highways are situated in steppe and forest-steppe native zones. For both scenarios, significant climate warming is registered; it is revealed in significant increase of average monthly and yearly temperature by 2-3°C in all cities in questions, and also, in considerable increment of frequency of days with maximum temperature higher than +30 and 35°C, except Kharkiv, where decrease number of days with such temperatures is observed. On the contrary, number of days with daily mean temperature being equal to or below 0°C decreases in the south of steppe, is constant in the north of steppe and increases in the forest-steppe native zone. Extreme negative temperatures don't occur in the steppe zone, but takes place in the forest-steppe zone. Results obtained shows that road surface must hold in extreme maximum temperature, and in the forest-steppe zone hazards of extreme negative temperatures must be considered. Frequency of winter events that make road surface worse such as glaze-clear ice, frozen snow that had initially melted on a warm road surface, ice and snow slippery coats etc., are high enough, especially in the forest-steppe zone. In the Black Sea Lowland among winter events the frozen snow that had initially melted on a warm road surface is most commonly observed, that is connected with high occurrence of the thaws. Because of increase in frequency of shower precipitation in all cities wet road surface is observed most frequently, especially in May and June; it must be taken into account for construction of roads, too. Monthly mean wind speed shows that in Odesa and Kharkiv significant increase in average monthly and yearly wind speeds are observed, by 0,5-1 m/s in comparison with the period of 1961 to 1990. On the contrary, in Dnipropetrovsk, wind speed decreases by 0,7 m/s. Frequency distribution of maximum wind speed shows that high wind speeds are more frequent in the winter months.

Trends and variability of daily temperature and precipitation extremes during 1960-2012 in the Yangtze River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Yinghui

2017-04-01

The variability of surface air temperature and precipitation extremes has been the focus of attention during the past several decades, and may exert a great influence on the global hydrologic cycle and energy balance through thermal forcing. Using daily minimum (TN), maximum temperature (TX) and precipitation　from 143 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), a suite of extreme climate indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, which has rarely been applied in this region, were computed and analyzed during 1960-2012. The results show widespread significant changes in all temperature indices associated with warming in the YRB during 1960-2012. On the whole, cold-related indices, i.e., cold nights, cold days, frost days, icing days and cold spell duration index significantly decreased by -3.45, -1.03, -3.04, -0.42 and -1.6 days/decade, respectively. In contrast, warm-related indices such as warm nights, warm days, summer days, tropical nights and warm spell duration index significantly increased by 2.95, 1.71, 2.16, 1.05 and 0.73 days/decade. Minimum TN, maximum TN, minimum TX and maximum TX increased significantly by 0.42, 0.18, 0.19 and 0.14 °C/decade. Because of a faster increase in minimum temperature than maximum temperature, the diurnal temperature range (DTR) exhibited a significant decreasing trend of -0.09 °C/decade for the whole YRB during 1960-2012. Geographically, stations in the eastern Tibet Plateau and northeastern YRB showed stronger trends in almost all temperature indices. Time series analysis indicated that the YRB was dominated by a general cooling trend before the mid-1980s, but a warming trend afterwards. For precipitation, simple daily intensity index, very wet day precipitation, extremely wet day precipitation, extremely heavy precipitation days, maximum 1-day precipitation, maximum 5-day precipitation and maximum consecutive dry days all increased significantly during 1960-2012. In contrast, ≥ 10 mm precipitation days and maximum consecutive wet days decreased significantly, implying that the precipitation processes in YRB were dominated by precipitation events with shorter durations. Geographically, a wetting tendency was observed in the eastern Tibet Plateau and the middle and lower YRB, while the other regions experienced precipitation deficits. The increasing precipitation was mainly due to the intensification of extreme precipitation events and the decreasing precipitation may be attributed to the decrease of ≥ 10 mm precipitation days or moderate precipitation events. In addition, the regional trends were of greater magnitudes in the middle and lower YRB, indicating more frequent extreme precipitation events in these sub-regions.

Estimated winter wheat yield from crop growth predicted by LANDSAT

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kanemasu, E. T.

1977-01-01

An evapotranspiration and growth model for winter wheat is reported. The inputs are daily solar radiation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation/irrigation and leaf area index. The meteorological data were obtained from National Weather Service while LAI was obtained from LANDSAT multispectral scanner. The output provides daily estimates of potential evapotranspiration, transpiration, evaporation, soil moisture (50 cm depth), percentage depletion, net photosynthesis and dry matter production. Winter wheat yields are correlated with transpiration and dry matter accumulation.

Recent increase in maximum temperature at the tropical treeline of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biondi, F.

2009-12-01

There are only a handful of weather stations above 3000 m in the entire American Cordillera, from Alaska to Tierra del Fuego. I present a surface instrumental record of high elevation (treeline) ecoclimatic variables for the tropics of North America. Besides its high elevation (3760 m) and tropical (19.5°N) features, this site is also located in the North American Monsoon System, making the data relevant to a broad suite of environmental issues. Automated half-hour data collected on Nevado de Colima, Mexico, from 2001 to 2009 show an increase in maximum temperature during the dry winter season, while incoming solar radiation remained stationary. Since minimum temperature did not increase as much, the daily range of air temperature has expanded over time. At this elevation, with average daily barometric pressure of 655 ± 1.4 hPa, maximum temperatures reflect the annual and daily energy cycle because of the dominant role of ground heating caused by incoming shortwave radiation. In fact, spring is the warmest season in this area, as it is followed by pronounced cooling during the summer monsoon because of increased cloudiness. The observed warming is associated with reduced wind speed, especially around solar noon, and is therefore most likely driven by reduced atmospheric flow, suggesting that the energy and water balance of high elevation tropical ecosystems are changing in unexpected ways. Further measurements and regional modeling experiments are therefore needed, given the staggering consequences this could have for any resource managers and policy makers concerned with trans-boundary (Mexico-US) terrestrial, coastal, and oceanic issues.

The impact of heat waves on surface urban heat island and local economy in Cluj-Napoca city, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herbel, Ioana; Croitoru, Adina-Eliza; Rus, Adina Viorica; Roşca, Cristina Florina; Harpa, Gabriela Victoria; Ciupertea, Antoniu-Flavius; Rus, Ionuţ

2017-07-01

The association between heat waves and the urban heat island effect can increase the impact on environment and society inducing biophysical hazards. Heat stress and their associated public health problems are among the most frequent. This paper explores the heat waves impact on surface urban heat island and on the local economy loss during three heat periods in Cluj-Napoca city in the summer of 2015. The heat wave events were identified based on daily maximum temperature, and they were divided into three classes considering the intensity threshold: moderate heat waves (daily maximum temperature exceeding the 90th percentile), severe heat waves (daily maximum temperature over the 95th percentile), and extremely severe heat waves (daily maximum temperature exceeding the 98th percentile). The minimum length of an event was of minimum three consecutive days. The surface urban heat island was detected based on land surface temperature derived from Landsat 8 thermal infrared data, while the economic impact was estimated based on data on work force structure and work productivity in Cluj-Napoca derived from the data released by Eurostat, National Bank of Romania, and National Institute of Statistics. The results indicate that the intensity and spatial extension of surface urban heat island could be governed by the magnitude of the heat wave event, but due to the low number of satellite images available, we should consider this information only as preliminary results. Thermal infrared remote sensing has proven to be a very efficient method to study surface urban heat island, due to the fact that the synoptic conditions associated with heat wave events usually favor cloud free image. The resolution of the OLI_TIRS sensor provided good results for a mid-extension city, but the low revisiting time is still a drawback. The potential economic loss was calculated for the working days during heat waves and the estimated loss reached more than 2.5 mil. EUR for each heat wave day at city scale, cumulating more than 38 mil. EUR for the three cases considered.

Technical note: Differences in the diurnal pattern of soil respiration under adjacent Miscanthus × giganteus and barley crops reveal potential flaws in accepted sampling strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben Keane, J.; Ineson, Phil

2017-03-01

For convenience, measurements used to compare soil respiration (Rs) from different land uses, crops or management practices are often made between 09:00 and 16:00 UTC, convenience which is justified by an implicit assumption that Rs is largely controlled by temperature. Three months of continuous data presented here show distinctly different diurnal patterns of Rs between barley (Hordeum vulgare) and Miscanthus × giganteus (Miscanthus) grown on adjacent fields. Maximum Rs in barley occurred during the afternoon and correlated with soil temperature, whereas in Miscanthus after an initial early evening decline, Rs increased above the daily average during the night and in July maximum daily rates of Rs were seen at 22:00 and was significantly correlated with earlier levels of solar radiation, probably due to delays in translocation of recent photosynthate. Since the time of the daily mean Rs in Miscanthus occurred when Rs in the barley was 40 % greater than the daily mean, it is vital to select appropriate times to measure Rs especially if only single daily measurements are to be made.

Modeling the contributions of global air temperature, synoptic-scale phenomena and soil moisture to near-surface static energy variability using artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pryor, Sara C.; Sullivan, Ryan C.; Schoof, Justin T.

2017-12-01

The static energy content of the atmosphere is increasing on a global scale, but exhibits important subglobal and subregional scales of variability and is a useful parameter for integrating the net effect of changes in the partitioning of energy at the surface and for improving understanding of the causes of so-called warming holes (i.e., locations with decreasing daily maximum air temperatures (T) or increasing trends of lower magnitude than the global mean). Further, measures of the static energy content (herein the equivalent potential temperature, θe) are more strongly linked to excess human mortality and morbidity than air temperature alone, and have great relevance in understanding causes of past heat-related excess mortality and making projections of possible future events that are likely to be associated with negative human health and economic consequences. New nonlinear statistical models for summertime daily maximum and minimum θe are developed and used to advance understanding of drivers of historical change and variability over the eastern USA. The predictor variables are an index of the daily global mean temperature, daily indices of the synoptic-scale meteorology derived from T and specific humidity (Q) at 850 and 500 hPa geopotential heights (Z), and spatiotemporally averaged soil moisture (SM). SM is particularly important in determining the magnitude of θe over regions that have previously been identified as exhibiting warming holes, confirming the key importance of SM in dictating the partitioning of net radiation into sensible and latent heat and dictating trends in near-surface T and θe. Consistent with our a priori expectations, models built using artificial neural networks (ANNs) out-perform linear models that do not permit interaction of the predictor variables (global T, synoptic-scale meteorological conditions and SM). This is particularly marked in regions with high variability in minimum and maximum θe, where more complex models built using ANN with multiple hidden layers are better able to capture the day-to-day variability in θe and the occurrence of extreme maximum θe. Over the entire domain, the ANN with three hidden layers exhibits high accuracy in predicting maximum θe > 347 K. The median hit rate for maximum θe > 347 K is > 0.60, while the median false alarm rate is ≈ 0.08.

Climate specific thermomechanical fatigue of flat plate photovoltaic module solder joints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bosco, Nick; Silverman, Timothy J.; Kurtz, Sarah

FEM simulations of PbSn solder fatigue damage are used to evaluate seven cities that represent a variety of climatic zones. It is shown that the rate of solder fatigue damage is not ranked with the cities' climate designations. For an accurate ranking, the mean maximum daily temperature, daily temperature change and a characteristic of clouding events are all required. A physics-based empirical equation is presented that accurately calculates solder fatigue damage according to these three factors. An FEM comparison of solder damage accumulated through service and thermal cycling demonstrates the number of cycles required for an equivalent exposure. For anmore » equivalent 25-year exposure, the number of thermal cycles (-40 degrees C to 85 degrees C) required ranged from roughly 100 to 630 for the cities examined. It is demonstrated that increasing the maximum cycle temperature may significantly reduce the number of thermal cycles required for an equivalent exposure.« less

Biogeographical drivers of ragweed pollen concentrations in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matyasovszky, István; Makra, László; Tusnády, Gábor; Csépe, Zoltán; Nyúl, László G.; Chapman, Daniel S.; Sümeghy, Zoltán; Szűcs, Gábor; Páldy, Anna; Magyar, Donát; Mányoki, Gergely; Erostyák, János; Bodnár, Károly; Bergmann, Karl-Christian; Deák, Áron József; Thibaudon, Michel; Albertini, Roberto; Bonini, Maira; Šikoparija, Branko; Radišić, Predrag; Gehrig, Regula; Rybníček, Ondřej; Severova, Elena; Rodinkova, Victoria; Prikhodko, Alexander; Maleeva, Anna; Stjepanović, Barbara; Ianovici, Nicoleta; Berger, Uwe; Seliger, Andreja Kofol; Weryszko-Chmielewska, Elżbieta; Šaulienė, Ingrida; Shalaboda, Valentina; Yankova, Raina; Peternel, Renata; Ščevková, Jana; Bullock, James M.

2017-06-01

The drivers of spatial variation in ragweed pollen concentrations, contributing to severe allergic rhinitis and asthma, are poorly quantified. We analysed the spatiotemporal variability in 16-year (1995-2010) annual total (66 stations) and annual total (2010) (162 stations) ragweed pollen counts and 8 independent variables (start, end and duration of the ragweed pollen season, maximum daily and calendar day of the maximum daily ragweed pollen counts, last frost day in spring, first frost day in fall and duration of the frost-free period) for Europe (16 years, 1995-2010) as a function of geographical coordinates. Then annual total pollen counts, annual daily peak pollen counts and date of this peak were regressed against frost-related variables, daily mean temperatures and daily precipitation amounts. To achieve this, we assembled the largest ragweed pollen data set to date for Europe. The dependence of the annual total ragweed pollen counts and the eight independent variables against geographical coordinates clearly distinguishes the three highly infected areas: the Pannonian Plain, Western Lombardy and the Rhône-Alpes region. All the eight variables are sensitive to longitude through its temperature dependence. They are also sensitive to altitude, due to the progressively colder climate with increasing altitude. Both annual total pollen counts and the maximum daily pollen counts depend on the start and the duration of the ragweed pollen season. However, no significant changes were detected in either the eight independent variables as a function of increasing latitude. This is probably due to a mixed climate induced by strong geomorphological inhomogeneities in Europe.

The impact of sustained hot weather on risk of acute work-related injury in Melbourne, Australia.

PubMed

McInnes, Judith Anne; MacFarlane, Ewan M; Sim, Malcolm R; Smith, Peter

2018-02-01

It has been reported that weather-related high ambient temperature is associated with an increased risk of work-related injury. Understanding this relationship is important because work-related injuries are a major public health problem, and because projected climate changes will potentially expose workers to hot days, including consecutive hot days, more often. The aim of this study was to quantify the impact of exposure to sustained periods of hot weather on work-related injury risk for workers in Melbourne, Australia. A time-stratified case crossover study design was utilised to examine the association between two and three consecutive days and two and three consecutive nights of hot weather and the risk of work-related injury, using definitions of hot weather ranging from the 60th to the 95th percentile of daily maximum and minimum temperatures for the Melbourne metropolitan area, 2002-2012. Workers' compensation claim data was used to identify cases of acute work-related injury. Overall, two and three consecutive days of hot weather were associated with an increased risk of injury, with this effect becoming apparent at a daily maximum temperature of 27.6 °C (70th percentile). Three consecutive days of high but not extreme temperatures were associated with the strongest effect, with a 15% increased risk of injury (odds ratio 1.15, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.30) observed when daily maximum temperature was ≥33.3 °C (90th percentile) for three consecutive days, compared to when it was not. At a threshold of 35.5 °C (95th percentile), there was no significant association between temperature and injury for either two or three consecutive days of heat. These findings suggest that warnings to minimise harm to workers from hot weather should be given, and prevention protocol initiated, when consecutive warm days of temperatures lower than extreme heat temperatures are forecast, and well before the upper ranges of ambient daytime temperatures are reached.

The impact of sustained hot weather on risk of acute work-related injury in Melbourne, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McInnes, Judith Anne; MacFarlane, Ewan M.; Sim, Malcolm R.; Smith, Peter

2018-02-01

It has been reported that weather-related high ambient temperature is associated with an increased risk of work-related injury. Understanding this relationship is important because work-related injuries are a major public health problem, and because projected climate changes will potentially expose workers to hot days, including consecutive hot days, more often. The aim of this study was to quantify the impact of exposure to sustained periods of hot weather on work-related injury risk for workers in Melbourne, Australia. A time-stratified case crossover study design was utilised to examine the association between two and three consecutive days and two and three consecutive nights of hot weather and the risk of work-related injury, using definitions of hot weather ranging from the 60th to the 95th percentile of daily maximum and minimum temperatures for the Melbourne metropolitan area, 2002-2012. Workers' compensation claim data was used to identify cases of acute work-related injury. Overall, two and three consecutive days of hot weather were associated with an increased risk of injury, with this effect becoming apparent at a daily maximum temperature of 27.6 °C (70th percentile). Three consecutive days of high but not extreme temperatures were associated with the strongest effect, with a 15% increased risk of injury (odds ratio 1.15, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.30) observed when daily maximum temperature was ≥33.3 °C (90th percentile) for three consecutive days, compared to when it was not. At a threshold of 35.5 °C (95th percentile), there was no significant association between temperature and injury for either two or three consecutive days of heat. These findings suggest that warnings to minimise harm to workers from hot weather should be given, and prevention protocol initiated, when consecutive warm days of temperatures lower than extreme heat temperatures are forecast, and well before the upper ranges of ambient daytime temperatures are reached.

CPLFD-GDPT5: High-resolution gridded daily precipitation and temperature data set for two largest Polish river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berezowski, Tomasz; Szcześniak, Mateusz; Kardel, Ignacy; Michałowski, Robert; Okruszko, Tomasz; Mezghani, Abdelkader; Piniewski, Mikołaj

2016-03-01

The CHASE-PL (Climate change impact assessment for selected sectors in Poland) Forcing Data-Gridded Daily Precipitation & Temperature Dataset-5 km (CPLFD-GDPT5) consists of 1951-2013 daily minimum and maximum air temperatures and precipitation totals interpolated onto a 5 km grid based on daily meteorological observations from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW-PIB; Polish stations), Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD, German and Czech stations), and European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECAD) and National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration-National Climatic Data Center (NOAA-NCDC) (Slovak, Ukrainian, and Belarusian stations). The main purpose for constructing this product was the need for long-term aerial precipitation and temperature data for earth-system modelling, especially hydrological modelling. The spatial coverage is the union of the Vistula and Oder basins and Polish territory. The number of available meteorological stations for precipitation and temperature varies in time from about 100 for temperature and 300 for precipitation in the 1950s up to about 180 for temperature and 700 for precipitation in the 1990s. The precipitation data set was corrected for snowfall and rainfall under-catch with the Richter method. The interpolation methods were kriging with elevation as external drift for temperatures and indicator kriging combined with universal kriging for precipitation. The kriging cross validation revealed low root-mean-squared errors expressed as a fraction of standard deviation (SD): 0.54 and 0.47 for minimum and maximum temperature, respectively, and 0.79 for precipitation. The correlation scores were 0.84 for minimum temperatures, 0.88 for maximum temperatures, and 0.65 for precipitation. The CPLFD-GDPT5 product is consistent with 1971-2000 climatic data published by IMGW-PIB. We also confirm good skill of the product for hydrological modelling by performing an application using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in the Vistula and Oder basins. Link to the data set: doi:10.4121/uuid:e939aec0-bdd1-440f-bd1e-c49ff10d0a07.

Measured and predicted air temperatures at basin to regional scales in the southern Appalachian mountains

Treesearch

Paul V. Bolstad; Lloyd Swift; Fred Collins; Jacques Regniere

1998-01-01

Landscape and temporal patterns of temperature were observed for local (13 station) and regional (35 station) networks in the Southern Appalachian mountains of North America. Temperatures decreased with altitude at mean rates of 7EC/km (maximum temperature) and 3EC/km (minimum temperature). Daily lapse rates depended on the method and stations used in the calculations...

Persistence and long-term memories of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in southern South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naumann, Gustavo; Vargas, Walter M.; Minetti, Juan L.

2011-10-01

The persistence and long-term memories in daily maximum and minimum temperature series during the instrumental period in southern South America were analysed. Here, we found a markedly seasonal pattern both for short- and long-term memories that can lead to enhanced predictability on intraseasonal timescales. In addition, well-defined spatial patterns of these properties were found in the region. Throughout the entire region, the strongest dependence was observed in autumn and early winter. In the Patagonia region only, the temperatures exhibited more memory during the spring. In general, these elements indicate that nonlinear interactions exist between the annual cycles of temperature and its anomalies. Knowledge of the spatiotemporal behaviour of these long-term memories can be used in the building of stochastic models that only use persistence. It is possible to propose two objective forecast models based on linear interactions associated with persistence and one that allows for the use of information from nonlinear interactions that are manifested in the form of forerunners.

The costs of keeping cool in a warming world: implications of high temperatures for foraging, thermoregulation and body condition of an arid-zone bird.

PubMed

du Plessis, Katherine L; Martin, Rowan O; Hockey, Philip A R; Cunningham, Susan J; Ridley, Amanda R

2012-10-01

Recent mass mortalities of bats, birds and even humans highlight the substantial threats that rising global temperatures pose for endotherms. Although less dramatic, sublethal fitness costs of high temperatures may be considerable and result in changing population demographics. Endothermic animals exposed to high environmental temperatures can adjust their behaviour (e.g. reducing activity) or physiology (e.g. elevating rates of evaporative water loss) to maintain body temperatures within tolerable limits. The fitness consequences of these adjustments, in terms of the ability to balance water and energy budgets and therefore maintain body condition, are poorly known. We investigated the effects of daily maximum temperature on foraging and thermoregulatory behaviour as well as maintenance of body condition in a wild, habituated population of Southern Pied Babblers Turdoides bicolor. These birds inhabit a hot, arid area of southern Africa where they commonly experience environmental temperatures exceeding optimal body temperatures. Repeated measurements of individual behaviour and body mass were taken across days varying in maximum air temperature. Contrary to expectations, foraging effort was unaffected by daily maximum temperature. Foraging efficiency, however, was lower on hotter days and this was reflected in a drop in body mass on hotter days. When maximum air temperatures exceeded 35.5 °C, individuals no longer gained sufficient weight to counter typical overnight weight loss. This reduction in foraging efficiency is likely driven, in part, by a trade-off with the need to engage in heat-dissipation behaviours. When we controlled for temperature, individuals that actively dissipated heat while continuing to forage experienced a dramatic decrease in their foraging efficiency. This study demonstrates the value of investigations of temperature-dependent behaviour in the context of impacts on body condition, and suggests that increasingly high temperatures will have negative implications for the fitness of these arid-zone birds. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Changes in heat waves indices in Romania over the period 1961-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croitoru, Adina-Eliza; Piticar, Adrian; Ciupertea, Antoniu-Flavius; Roşca, Cristina Florina

2016-11-01

In the last two decades many climate change studies have focused on extreme temperatures as they have a significant impact on environment and society. Among the weather events generated by extreme temperatures, heat waves are some of the most harmful. The main objective of this study was to detect and analyze changes in heat waves in Romania based on daily observation data (maximum and minimum temperature) over the extended summer period (May-Sept) using a set of 10 indices and to explore the spatial patterns of changes. Heat wave data series were derived from daily maximum and minimum temperature data sets recorded in 29 weather stations across Romania over a 55-year period (1961-2015). In this study, the threshold chosen was the 90th percentile calculated based on a 15-day window centered on each calendar day, and for three baseline periods (1961-1990, 1971-2000, and 1981-2010). Two heat wave definitions were considered: at least three consecutive days when maximum temperature exceeds 90th percentile, and at least three consecutive days when minimum temperature exceeds 90th percentile. For each of them, five variables were calculated: amplitude, magnitude, number of events, duration, and frequency. Finally, 10 indices resulted for further analysis. The main results are: most of the indices have statistically significant increasing trends; only one index for one weather station indicated statistically significant decreasing trend; the changes are more intense in case of heat waves detected based on maximum temperature compared to those obtained for heat waves identified based on minimum temperature; western and central regions of Romania are the most exposed to increasing heat waves.

Effect of summer outdoor temperatures on work-related injuries in Quebec (Canada).

PubMed

Adam-Poupart, Ariane; Smargiassi, Audrey; Busque, Marc-Antoine; Duguay, Patrice; Fournier, Michel; Zayed, Joseph; Labrèche, France

2015-05-01

To quantify the associations between occupational injury compensations and exposure to summer outdoor temperatures in Quebec (Canada). The relationship between 374,078 injuries compensated by the Workers' Compensation Board (WCB) (between May and September, 2003-2010) and maximum daily outdoor temperatures was modelled using generalised linear models with negative binomial distributions. Pooled effect sizes for all 16 health regions of Quebec were estimated with random-effect models for meta-analyses for all compensations and by sex, age group, mechanism of injury, industrial sector and occupations (manual vs other) within each sector. Time lags and cumulative effect of temperatures were also explored. The relationship between daily counts of compensations and maximum daily temperatures reached statistical significance for three health regions. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) of daily compensations per 1°C increase was 1.002 (95% CI 1.002 to 1.003) for all health regions combined. Statistically significant positive associations were observed for men, workers aged less than 45 years, various industrial sectors with both indoor and outdoor activities, and for slips/trips/falls, contact with object/equipment and exposure to harmful substances/environment. Manual occupations were not systematically at higher risk than non-manual and mixed ones. This study is the first to quantify the association between work-related injury compensations and exposure to summer temperatures according to physical demands of the occupation and this warrants further investigations. In the context of global warming, results can be used to estimate future impacts of summer outdoor temperatures on workers, as well as to plan preventive interventions. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Weekly Oscillation of Daily Climatology of Air Temperature: Implication for Anthropogenic Attribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, S.; Wang, K.

2016-12-01

During national holiday and weekend, human activity and anthropogenic emission are expected to be much less than those during workday. Therefore, the contrast of environmental factors (i.e., air temperature and air quality) between national holiday (or weekend) and workday has been attributed to anthropogenic impact. For example, daily maximum (Tmax), minimum (Tmin) and mean (Tmean) air temperatures during the Chinese Spring Festival holiday were found to be 0. 6°C less than those of nearby workdays. We evaluated the contrasts using daily meteorological observations collected at 2479 stations in China from 1961 to 2015. The contrasts were evaluated with two methods. The first directly compared air temperatures between Chinese Spring Festival holiday and nearby workdays. The second first composited a daily climatology of air temperatures centered on the first day of Chinese Spring Festival holiday, and the seasonal cycles of air temperatures were then removed using polynomial regressions. The average of the derived daily deviation of air temperatures can be regarded as anthropogenic impact of Chinese Spring Festival holiday. We found that these two methods obtained nearly the same results. However, we found that the so-called anthropogenic impact during Chinese Spring Festival was not unique because the daily deviations of air temperatures had obvious weekly oscillations. The daily deviations of air temperature had periods of 7 days and 9 days, which explain 60% of the variance of daily deviations of Tmax, Tmin, and Tmean. These results indicate that the so-called anthropogenic impacts are primarily caused by natural variability, i.e., weekly oscillations of the air temperatures. This study also has great implication for the studies on weekend effect of the environmental factors.

Thermoregulation of alpacas bred in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattiello, Silvana; Formis, Elena; Barbieri, Sara

2011-03-01

The present study monitored daily and seasonal variations of rectal temperature in response to different environmental temperatures in alpacas bred in the Italian Apennines at 300 m a.s.l. In each season, the rectal temperature of 33 clinically healthy alpacas was measured three times/day (morning, midday, afternoon). Ambient temperatures were also recorded. Rectal temperatures ranged from a minimum value of 35.1 to a maximum of 39.4°C, with a maximum daily thermal excursion (ΔTrec) of 3.2°C. Temperatures increased throughout the day, with highly significant differences recorded in both young and adult animals between all the time bands ( P < 0.001). These differences were particularly dramatic for adults in summer, when the mean rectal temperature in the morning was 36.3 ± 0.13°C, probably as a consequence of recent shearing. Significant ΔTrec differences were recorded depending on the season in both young and adult animals ( P < 0.001), with the highest ΔTrec values recorded in summer (although the highest daily ambient excursion value was recorded in winter). In conclusion, similarly to alpacas bred in their natural environment, alpacas bred in Italy show a wide thermal neutrality zone, which is probably an adaptive response, that allows the animals to save energy. In the Italian Apennines, in order to prevent situations of hypothermia, with possible detrimental effects on alpacas' health and welfare, shearing should be carried out only in warm seasons.

Thermal conditions within tree cavities in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests: potential implications for cavity users.

PubMed

Vierling, Kerri T; Lorenz, Teresa J; Cunningham, Patrick; Potterf, Kelsi

2018-04-01

Tree cavities provide critical roosting and breeding sites for multiple species, and thermal environments in these cavities are important to understand. Our objectives were to (1) describe thermal characteristics in cavities between June 3 and August 9, 2014, and (2) investigate the environmental factors that influence cavity temperatures. We placed iButtons in 84 different cavities in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests in central Washington, and took hourly measurements for at least 8 days in each cavity. Temperatures above 40 °C are generally lethal to developing avian embryos, and ~ 18% of the cavities had internal temperatures of ≥ 40 °C for at least 1 h of each day. We modeled daily maximum cavity temperature, the amplitude of daily cavity temperatures, and the difference between the mean internal cavity and mean ambient temperatures as a function of several environmental variables. These variables included canopy cover, tree diameter at cavity height, cavity volume, entrance area, the hardness of the cavity body, the hardness of the cavity sill (which is the wood below the cavity entrance which forms the barrier between the cavity and the external environment), and sill width. Ambient temperature had the largest effect size for maximum cavity temperature and amplitude. Larger trees with harder sills may provide more thermally stable cavity environments, and decayed sills were positively associated with maximum cavity temperatures. Summer temperatures are projected to increase in this region, and additional research is needed to determine how the thermal environments of cavities will influence species occupancy, breeding, and survival.

Thermal conditions within tree cavities in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests: potential implications for cavity users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vierling, Kerri T.; Lorenz, Teresa J.; Cunningham, Patrick; Potterf, Kelsi

2017-11-01

Tree cavities provide critical roosting and breeding sites for multiple species, and thermal environments in these cavities are important to understand. Our objectives were to (1) describe thermal characteristics in cavities between June 3 and August 9, 2014, and (2) investigate the environmental factors that influence cavity temperatures. We placed iButtons in 84 different cavities in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests in central Washington, and took hourly measurements for at least 8 days in each cavity. Temperatures above 40 °C are generally lethal to developing avian embryos, and 18% of the cavities had internal temperatures of ≥ 40 °C for at least 1 h of each day. We modeled daily maximum cavity temperature, the amplitude of daily cavity temperatures, and the difference between the mean internal cavity and mean ambient temperatures as a function of several environmental variables. These variables included canopy cover, tree diameter at cavity height, cavity volume, entrance area, the hardness of the cavity body, the hardness of the cavity sill (which is the wood below the cavity entrance which forms the barrier between the cavity and the external environment), and sill width. Ambient temperature had the largest effect size for maximum cavity temperature and amplitude. Larger trees with harder sills may provide more thermally stable cavity environments, and decayed sills were positively associated with maximum cavity temperatures. Summer temperatures are projected to increase in this region, and additional research is needed to determine how the thermal environments of cavities will influence species occupancy, breeding, and survival.

Geo-spatial analysis of temporal trends of temperature and its extremes over India using daily gridded (1°×1°) temperature data of 1969-2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Abhishek; Seshasai, M. V. R.; Rao, S. V. C. Kameswara; Dadhwal, V. K.

2017-10-01

Daily gridded (1°×1°) temperature data (1969-2005) were used to detect spatial patterns of temporal trends of maximum and minimum temperature (monthly and seasonal), growing degree days (GDDs) over the crop-growing season ( kharif, rabi, and zaid) and annual frequencies of temperature extremes over India. The direction and magnitude of trends, at each grid level, were estimated using the Mann-Kendall statistics ( α = 0.05) and further assessed at the homogeneous temperature regions using a field significance test ( α=0.05). General warming trends were observed over India with considerable variations in direction and magnitude over space and time. The spatial extent and the magnitude of the increasing trends of minimum temperature (0.02-0.04 °C year-1) were found to be higher than that of maximum temperature (0.01-0.02 °C year-1) during winter and pre-monsoon seasons. Significant negative trends of minimum temperature were found over eastern India during the monsoon months. Such trends were also observed for the maximum temperature over northern and eastern parts, particularly in the winter month of January. The general warming patterns also changed the thermal environment of the crop-growing season causing significant increase in GDDs during kharif and rabi seasons across India. The warming climate has also caused significant increase in occurrences of hot extremes such as hot days and hot nights, and significant decrease in cold extremes such as cold days and cold nights.

Exploring the association between heat and mortality in Switzerland between 1995 and 2013.

PubMed

Ragettli, Martina S; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M; Schindler, Christian; Röösli, Martin

2017-10-01

Designing effective public health strategies to prevent adverse health effect of hot weather is crucial in the context of global warming. In Switzerland, the 2003 heat have caused an estimated 7% increase in all-cause mortality. As a consequence, the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health developed an information campaign to raise public awareness on heat threats. For a better understanding on how hot weather affects daily mortality in Switzerland, we assessed the effect of heat on daily mortality in eight Swiss cities and population subgroups from 1995 to 2013 using different temperature metrics (daily mean (Tmean), maximum (Tmax), minimum (Tmin) and maximum apparent temperature (Tappmax)), and aimed to evaluate variations of the heat effect after 2003 (1995-2002 versus 2004-2013). We applied conditional quasi-Poisson regression models with non-linear distributed lag functions to estimate temperature-mortality associations over all cities (1995-2013) and separately for two time periods (1995-2002, 2004-2013). Relative risks (RR) of daily mortality were estimated for increases in temperature from the median to the 98th percentile of the warm season temperature distribution. Over the whole time period, significant temperature-mortality relationships were found for all temperature indicators (RR (95% confidence interval): Tappmax: 1.12 (1.05; 1.18); Tmax: 1.15 (1.08-1.22); Tmean: 1.16 (1.09-1.23); Tmin 1.23 (1.15-1.32)). Mortality risks were higher at the beginning of the summer, especially for Tmin. In the more recent time period, we observed a non-significant reduction in the effect of high temperatures on mortality, with the age group > 74 years remaining the population at highest risk. High temperatures continue to be a considerable risk factor for human health in Switzerland after 2003. More effective public health measures targeting the elderly should be promoted with increased attention to the first heat events in summer and considering both high day-time and night-time temperatures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impacts of day versus night warming on soil microclimate: results from a semiarid temperate steppe.

PubMed

Xia, Jianyang; Chen, Shiping; Wan, Shiqiang

2010-06-15

One feature of climate warming is that increases in daily minimum temperature are greater than those in daily maximum temperature. Changes in soil microclimate in response to the asymmetrically diurnal warming scenarios can help to explain responses of ecosystem processes. In the present study, we examined the impacts of day, night, and continuous warming on soil microclimate in a temperate steppe in northern China. Our results showed that day, night, and continuous warming (approximately 13Wm(-2) with constant power mode) significantly increased daily mean soil temperature at 10cm depth by 0.71, 0.78, and 1.71 degrees C, respectively. Night warming caused greater increases in nighttime mean and daily minimum soil temperatures (0.74 and 0.99 degrees C) than day warming did (0.60 and 0.66 degrees C). However, there were no differences in the increases in daytime mean and daily maximum soil temperature between day (0.81 and 1.13 degrees C) and night (0.81 and 1.10 degrees C) warming. The differential effects of day and night warming on soil temperature varied with environmental factors, including photosynthetic active radiation, vapor-pressure deficit, and wind speed. When compared with the effect of continuous warming on soil temperature, the summed effects of day and night warming were lower during daytime, but greater at night, thus leading to equality at daily scale. Mean volumetric soil moisture at the depth of 0-40cm significantly decreased under continuous warming in both 2006 (1.44 V/V%) and 2007 (0.76 V/V%). Day warming significantly reduced volumetric soil moisture only in 2006, whereas night warming had no effect on volumetric soil moisture in both 2006 and 2007. Given the different diurnal warming patterns and variability of environmental factors among ecosystems, these results highlight the importance of incorporating the differential impacts of day and night warming on soil microclimate into the predictions of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate warming. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Gridded Daily Min/Max Temperature Dataset With 0.1° Resolution for the Yangtze River Valley and its Error Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, Qiufen; Hu, Jianglin

2013-05-01

The minimum/maximum (Min/Max) temperature in the Yangtze River valley is decomposed into the climatic mean and anomaly component. A spatial interpolation is developed which combines the 3D thin-plate spline scheme for climatological mean and the 2D Barnes scheme for the anomaly component to create a daily Min/Max temperature dataset. The climatic mean field is obtained by the 3D thin-plate spline scheme because the relationship between the decreases in Min/Max temperature with elevation is robust and reliable on a long time-scale. The characteristics of the anomaly field tend to be related to elevation variation weakly, and the anomaly component is adequately analyzed by the 2D Barnes procedure, which is computationally efficient and readily tunable. With this hybridized interpolation method, a daily Min/Max temperature dataset that covers the domain from 99°E to 123°E and from 24°N to 36°N with 0.1° longitudinal and latitudinal resolution is obtained by utilizing daily Min/Max temperature data from three kinds of station observations, which are national reference climatological stations, the basic meteorological observing stations and the ordinary meteorological observing stations in 15 provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River valley from 1971 to 2005. The error estimation of the gridded dataset is assessed by examining cross-validation statistics. The results show that the statistics of daily Min/Max temperature interpolation not only have high correlation coefficient (0.99) and interpolation efficiency (0.98), but also the mean bias error is 0.00 °C. For the maximum temperature, the root mean square error is 1.1 °C and the mean absolute error is 0.85 °C. For the minimum temperature, the root mean square error is 0.89 °C and the mean absolute error is 0.67 °C. Thus, the new dataset provides the distribution of Min/Max temperature over the Yangtze River valley with realistic, successive gridded data with 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution and daily temporal scale. The primary factors influencing the dataset precision are elevation and terrain complexity. In general, the gridded dataset has a relatively high precision in plains and flatlands and a relatively low precision in mountainous areas.

Impact of automatization in temperature series in Spain and comparison with the POST-AWS dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilar, Enric; López-Díaz, José Antonio; Prohom Duran, Marc; Gilabert, Alba; Luna Rico, Yolanda; Venema, Victor; Auchmann, Renate; Stepanek, Petr; Brandsma, Theo

2016-04-01

Climate data records are most of the times affected by inhomogeneities. Especially inhomogeneities introducing network-wide biases are sometimes related to changes happening almost simultaneously in an entire network. Relative homogenization is difficult in these cases, especially at the daily scale. A good example of this is the substitution of manual observations (MAN) by automatic weather stations (AWS). Parallel measurements (i.e. records taken at the same time with the old (MAN) and new (AWS) sensors can provide an idea of the bias introduced and help to evaluate the suitability of different correction approaches. We present here a quality controlled dataset compiled under the DAAMEC Project, comprising 46 stations across Spain and over 85,000 parallel measurements (AWS-MAN) of daily maximum and minimum temperature. We study the differences between both sensors and compare it with the available metadata to account for internal inhomogeneities. The differences between both systems vary much across stations, with patterns more related to their particular settings than to climatic/geographical reasons. The typical median biases (AWS-MAN) by station (comprised between the interquartile range) oscillate between -0.2°C and 0.4 in daily maximum temperature and between -0.4°C and 0.2°C in daily minimum temperature. These and other results are compared with a larger network, the Parallel Observations Scientific Team, a working group of the International Surface Temperatures Initiative (ISTI-POST) dataset, which comprises our stations, as well as others from different countries in America, Asia and Europe.

Meteorology Online.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kahl, Jonathan D. W.

2001-01-01

Describes an activity to learn about meteorology and weather using the internet. Discusses the National Weather Service (NWS) internet site www.weather.gov. Students examine maximum and minimum daily temperatures, wind speed, and direction. (SAH)

EnviroAtlas - Biological nitrogen fixation in natural/semi-natural ecosystems by 12-digit HUC for the Conterminous United States, 2006

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This EnviroAtlas dataset contains data on the mean biological nitrogen fixation in natural/semi-natural ecosystems per 12-digit Hydrologic Unit (HUC) in 2006. Biological N fixation (BNF) in natural/semi-natural ecosystems was estimated using a correlation with actual evapotranspiration (AET). This correlation is based on a global meta-analysis of BNF in natural/semi-natural ecosystems (Cleveland et al. 1999). AET estimates for 2006 were calculated using a regression equation describing the correlation of AET with climate (average annual daily temperature, average annual minimum daily temperature, average annual maximum daily temperature, and annual precipitation) and land use/land cover variables in the conterminous US (Sanford and Selnick 2013). Data describing annual average minimum and maximum daily temperatures and total precipitation for 2006 were acquired from the PRISM climate dataset (http://prism.oregonstate.edu). Average annual climate data were then calculated for individual 12-digit USGS Hydrologic Unit Codes (HUC12s; http://water.usgs.gov/GIS/huc.html; 22 March 2011 release) using the Zonal Statistics tool in ArcMap 10.0. AET for individual HUC12s was estimated using equations described in Sanford and Selnick (2013). BNF in natural/semi-natural ecosystems within individual HUC12s was modeled with an equation describing the statistical relationship between BNF (kg N ha-1 yr-1) and actual evapotranspiration (AET; cm yr-1) and scaled to the proportion

Drivers of Intra-Summer Seasonality and Daily Variability of Coastal Low Cloudiness in California Subregions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, R. E.; Iacobellis, S.; Gershunov, A.; Williams, P.; Cayan, D. R.

2014-12-01

Summertime low cloud intrusion into the terrestrial west coast of North America impacts human, ecological, and logistical systems. Over a broad region of the West Coast, summer (May - September) coastal low cloudiness (CLC) varies coherently on interannual to interdecadal timescales and has been found to be organized by North Pacific sea surface temperature. Broad-scale studies of low stratiform cloudiness over ocean basins also find that the season of maximum low stratus corresponds to the season of maximum lower tropospheric stability (LTS) or estimated inversion strength. We utilize a 18-summer record of CLC derived from NASA/NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) at 4km resolution over California (CA) to make a more nuanced spatial and temporal examination of intra-summer variability in CLC and its drivers. We find that uniform spatial coherency over CA is not apparent for intra-summer variability in CLC. On monthly to daily timescales, at least two distinct subregions of coastal California (CA) can be identified, where relationships between meteorology and stratus variability appear to change throughout summer in each subregion. While north of Point Conception and offshore the timing of maximum CLC is closely coincident with maximum LTS, in the Southern CA Bight and northern Baja region, maximum CLC occurs up to about a month before maximum LTS. It appears that summertime CLC in this southern region is not as strongly related as in the northern region to LTS. In particular, although the relationship is strong in May and June, starting in July the daily relationship between LTS and CLC in the south begins to deteriorate. Preliminary results indicate a moderate association between decreased CLC in the south and increased precipitable water content above 850 hPa on daily time scales beginning in July. Relationships between daily CLC variability and meteorological variables including winds, inland temperatures, relative humidity, and geopotential heights within and above the marine boundary layer are investigated and dissected by month, CA subregion, and cloud height. The rich spatial detail of the satellite derived CLC record is utilized to examine the propagation in time and space of CLC on synoptic scales within and among subregions.

Highs and lows, ups and downs: Meteorology and mood in bipolar disorder.

PubMed

Bullock, Ben; Murray, Greg; Meyer, Denny

2017-01-01

Seasonal variation of manic and depressive symptoms is a controversial topic in bipolar disorder research. Several studies report seasonal patterns of hospital admissions for depression and mania and variation in symptoms that appear to follow a seasonal pattern, whereas others fail to report such patterns. Differences in research methodologies, data analysis strategies, and temporal resolution of data may partly explain the variation in findings between studies. The current study adds a novel perspective to the literature by investigating specific meteorological factors such as atmospheric pressure, hours of sunshine, relative humidity, and daily maximum and minimum temperatures as more proximal predictors of self-reported daily mood change in people diagnosed with bipolar disorder. The results showed that daily maximum temperature was the only meteorological variable to predict clinically-relevant mood change, with increases in temperature associated with greater odds of a transition into manic mood states. The mediating effects of sleep and activity were also investigated and suggest at least partial influence on the prospective relationship between maximum temperature and mood. Limitations include the small sample size and the fact that the number and valence of social interactions and exposure to natural light were not investigated as potentially important mediators of relationships between meteorological factors and mood. The current data make an important contribution to the literature, serving to clarify the specific meteorological factors that influence mood change in bipolar disorder. From a clinical perspective, greater understanding of seasonal patterns of symptoms in bipolar disorder will help mood episode prophylaxis in vulnerable individuals.

Numerical modelling of heat and mass transfer in adsorption solar reactor of ammonia on active carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aroudam, El. H.

In this paper, we present a modelling of the performance of a reactor of a solar cooling machine based carbon-ammonia activated bed. Hence, for a solar radiation, measured in the Energetic Laboratory of the Faculty of Sciences in Tetouan (northern Morocco), the proposed model computes the temperature distribution, the pressure and the ammonia concentration within the activated carbon bed. The Dubinin-Radushkevich formula is used to compute the ammonia concentration distribution and the daily cycled mass necessary to produce a cooling effect for an ideal machine. The reactor is heated at a maximum temperature during the day and cool at the night. A numerical simulation is carried out employing the recorded solar radiation data measured locally and the daily ambient temperature for the typical clear days. Initially the reactor is at ambient temperature, evaporating pressure; Pev=Pst(Tev=0 ∘C) and maintained at uniform concentration. It is heated successively until the threshold temperature corresponding to the condensing pressure; Pcond=Pst(Tam) (saturation pressure at ambient temperature; in the condenser) and until a maximum temperature at a constant pressure; Pcond. The cooling of the reactor is characterised by a fall of temperature to the minimal values at night corresponding to the end of a daily cycle. We use the mass balance equations as well as energy equation to describe heat and mass transfer inside the medium of three phases. A numerical solution of the obtained non linear equations system based on the implicit finite difference method allows to know all parameters characteristic of the thermodynamic cycle and consider principally the daily evolution of temperature, ammonia concentration for divers positions inside the reactor. The tube diameter of the reactor shows the dependence of the optimum value on meteorological parameters for 1 m2 of collector surface.

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kotamarthi, V. Rao

2017-12-01

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045-2054 and 2085-2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995-2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5-10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1-2 months by the end of the century.

Heat wave phenomenon in southern Slovakia: long-term changes and variability of daily maximum air temperature in Hurbanovo within the 1901-2009 period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pecho, J.; Výberči, D.; Jarošová, M.; Å¥Astný, P. Å.

2010-09-01

Analysis of long-term changes and temporal variability of heat waves incidence in the region of southern Slovakia within the 1901-2009 periods is a goal of the presented contribution. It is expected that climate change in terms of global warming would amplify temporal frequency and spatial extension of extreme heat wave incidence in region of central Europe in the next few decades. The frequency of occurrence and amplitude of heat waves may be impacted by changes in the temperature regime. Heat waves can cause severe thermal environmental stress leading to higher hospital admission rates, health complications, and increased mortality. These effects arise because of one or more meteorology-related factors such as higher effective temperatures, sunshine, more consecutive hot days and nights, stagnation, increased humidity, increased pollutant emissions, and accelerated photochemical smog and particulate formation. Heat waves bring about higher temperatures, increased solar heating of buildings, inhibited ventilation, and a larger number of consecutive warm days and nights. All of these effects increase the thermal loads on buildings, reduce their ability to cool down, and increase indoor temperatures. The paper is focused to analysis of long-term and inter-decadal temporal variability of heat waves occurrence at meteorological station Hurbanovo (time-series of daily maximum air temperature available from at least 1901). We can characterize the heat waves by its magnitude and duration, hence both of these characteristics need to be investigated together using sophisticated statistical methods developed particularly for the analysis of extreme hydrological events. We investigated particular heat wave periods either from the severity point of view using HWI index. In the paper we also present the results of statistical analysis of daily maximum air temperature within 1901-2009 period. Apart from these investigation efforts we also focused on synoptic causes of heat wave incidence in connection with macro scale circulation patterns in central European region.

Resilience of a High Latitude Red Sea Frining Corals Exposed to Extreme Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moustafa, M.; Moustafa, M. S.; Moustafa, S.; Moustafa, Z. D.

2013-05-01

Since 2004, multi-year study set out to establish linkages between fringing coral reefs in the northern Gulf of Suez, Red Sea, and local weather. Insight into local meteorological processes may provide a better understanding of the direct influence weather has on a fringing coral reef. To establish trends, seawater temperature and meteorological record were collected at a small fringing coral reef (Zaki's Reef), located near Ein Sokhna, Egypt (29.5oN & 32.4oE). Monitoring air and water temperature provides evidence of seasonality and interannual variability and may reveal correlations between reef health and climate conditions in this region. Prior to this study, there were no known long-term studies investigating coral reefs in this region. Approximately 35 coral taxa are known to survive the extreme temperature and salinity regime found here, yet only six corals compose 94% of coral cover on Zaki's Reef. Dominant corals include: Acropora humilis, A. microclados, A. hemprichii, Litophyton arboretum, Stylophora pistillata, Porites columna, and P. plantulata. Seawater temperatures were collected at 30 minutes intervals at 5 locations. Seawater temperature data indicate that corals experience 4-6.5oC daily temperature variations and seasonal variations that exceed 29oC. Air temperatures were collected just landward of the reef were compared to Hurghada and Ismailia 400 and 200 km south and north of the study site, respectively. Time series analysis results indicate that air temperature dominant frequencies are half-daily, daily, and yearly cycles, while water temperatures show yearly cycles. A comparison of air temperature with neighboring locations indicates that air temperatures at Ein Sokhna ranged between near 0o C to an excess of 55o C, yet, daily means for Ein Sokhna and Hurghada were very similar (24.2o C and. 25.2o C, respectively). Maximum daily air temperatures at the study site exceeded maximum air temperature at Hurghada (400 km south) by almost 7o C, while minimum daily means at Ein Sokhna were almost equal to those at Ismailia (200 km north). These trends were opposite to what was expected considering each stations geographical locations. The unexpected temperature trends, the daily/half daily dominant frequencies, and the short distance between the mountain range and Zaki's Reef vs. Hurghada (0.5 vs. 35 km), prompted us to hypothesize that a Foehn wind may be responsible for the high air temperatures observed at Ein Sokhna. We applied NOAA's HYSPLIT model to explore local circulation patterns, which suggest that the high mountain range blocks the year-round trade wind and forces it to climb up the western slope, where it loses moisture and reduces its temperature. As this cool, denser air reaches the mountain top, the air parcel starts rolling down the eastern slopes, which causes air temperature to rise and result in an increase in local air temperatures. These warmer than normal air temperatures measured here may aid in securing these northernmost reefs survival. Further scrutiny of the mechanisms by which area reefs are able to thrive extreme environmental conditions continues to be investigated.

Utilizing Crochet to Showcase Temporal Patterns in Temperature Records from One Location and to Spark a Climate Conversation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guertin, L. A.

2017-12-01

Scientists that seek to show temperature changes over time will typically select a line graph as the tool for data communication. However, one non-traditional way to showcase variations in data can be through an artistic visualization created with yarn. For several years, amateur and professional artisans have been using needlework (crocheting/knitting) to represent weather/climate records in scarves and blankets, sharing their work in online communities. Since the Sky Scarf project in 2011, a temporal record of data represented in yarn can include precipitation/snowfall to the air quality index. Here is an example of how crochet is being utilized to show maximum air temperature records over time for one location. Maximum daily temperature values have been collected for January through April in Philadelphia in fifty-year intervals (1917, 1967, 2017). This four-month interval was selected to match with the location and timing of a university's spring semester, as the target audience for this particular visualization is undergraduate students. Instead of trying to read differences in temperature across line graphs plotted for each year, three mini-temperature tapestries have been crocheted. A temperature scale has been developed with rainbow colors of yarn, where the purple and blue represent the coldest temperatures, and the orange and red represent the warmest temperatures. By using the same yarn temperature scale across the three mini-tapestries, the increase in daily maximum temperature in Philadelphia for a set time period can quickly and easily be observed. This form of science art, when presented to students, generates a series of questions, stories and predictions of a scientific and personal nature that are not typically part of a climate science instructional unit.

Habitat suitability and nest survival of white-headed woodpeckers in unburned forests of Oregon

Treesearch

Jeff P. Hollenbeck; Vicki Saab; Richard W. Frenzel

2011-01-01

We evaluated habitat suitability and nest survival of breeding white-headed woodpeckers (Picoides albolarvatus) in unburned forests of central Oregon, USA. Daily nest-survival rate was positively related to maximum daily temperature during the nest interval and to density of large-diameter trees surrounding the nest tree. We developed a niche-based habitat suitability...

Physiological responses to known intake of ergot alkaloids by steers at environmental temperatures within or greater than their thermoneutral zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eisemann, Joan; Huntington, Gerald; Williamson, Megan; Hanna, Michelle; Poore, Matthew

2014-11-01

Two studies separated effects of dietary ergot alkaloids from effects of feed intake or ambient temperature on respiration rate (RR), heart rate (HR), surface temperature (ST), rectal temperature (RT), blood pressure (BP), serum hormone, and plasma metabolite concentrations in beef steers. The balanced, single reversal design for each experiment used 8 beef steers fed tall fescue seed (2.5 g/kg body weight, (BW)) with (E+) or without (E-) ergot alkaloids as part of a 60:40 switchgrass hay: supplement diet. Periods were 35 d with 21 d of preliminary phase and 14 d of feeding fescue seed once daily. Measures of dependent variables were collected on d 20, 25, 29 and 35 of each period at 0730 (before feeding), 1230 and 1530. In Expt 1 steers weighed 286 kg, gained 0.61 kg BW/d, E+ supplied 2.72 mg ergot alkaloids including 1.60 mg ergovaline per steer daily, and mean minimum and maximum daily ambient temperatures were 23.6 and 32.3°C. In Expt 2 steers weighed 348 kg, gained 1.03 kg BW/d, E+ supplied 3.06 mg ergot alkaloids including 2.00 mg ergovaline daily, and mean minimum and maximum daily ambient temperatures were 11.9 and 17.4°C. Dry matter intake was not affected by fescue seed treatment (P < 0.20) in either experiment. In both experiments, E+ reduced HR (P < 0.01) and increased insulin (P = 0.07). Systolic BP minus diastolic BP decreased (P< 0.05) for E+ in both experiments, due to increased diastolic BP in Expt 1 (P < 0.03) and decreased systolic BP in Expt 2 (P < 0.07). In Expt 1, above the thermoneutral zone, E+ increased (P< 0.05) RR, RT and left side ST in comparison to E-, but in Expt 2, within the thermoneutral zone, E+ and E- did not differ (P < 0.18). Ergot alkaloids from fescue seed affect the cardiovascular system of steers separately from effects of feed intake or environmental temperature. Ergot alkaloids interact with ambient temperatures above the steers’ thermoneutral zone to exacerbate the symptoms of hyperthermic stress.

Quantitative Assessment of Temperature Sensitivity of the South Fork Nooksack River under Future Climates using QUAL2Kw

EPA Science Inventory

The Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program, established by the Clean Water Act, is used to establish limits on loading of pollutants from point and nonpoint sources necessary to achieve water quality standards. One important use of a temperature TMDL is to allocate thermal loads...

Estimation of daily maximum and minimum air temperatures in urban landscapes using MODIS time series satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoo, Cheolhee; Im, Jungho; Park, Seonyoung; Quackenbush, Lindi J.

2018-03-01

Urban air temperature is considered a significant variable for a variety of urban issues, and analyzing the spatial patterns of air temperature is important for urban planning and management. However, insufficient weather stations limit accurate spatial representation of temperature within a heterogeneous city. This study used a random forest machine learning approach to estimate daily maximum and minimum air temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) for two megacities with different climate characteristics: Los Angeles, USA, and Seoul, South Korea. This study used eight time-series land surface temperature (LST) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), with seven auxiliary variables: elevation, solar radiation, normalized difference vegetation index, latitude, longitude, aspect, and the percentage of impervious area. We found different relationships between the eight time-series LSTs with Tmax/Tmin for the two cities, and designed eight schemes with different input LST variables. The schemes were evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) from 10-fold cross-validation. The best schemes produced R2 of 0.850 and 0.777 and RMSE of 1.7 °C and 1.2 °C for Tmax and Tmin in Los Angeles, and R2 of 0.728 and 0.767 and RMSE of 1.1 °C and 1.2 °C for Tmax and Tmin in Seoul, respectively. LSTs obtained the day before were crucial for estimating daily urban air temperature. Estimated air temperature patterns showed that Tmax was highly dependent on the geographic factors (e.g., sea breeze, mountains) of the two cities, while Tmin showed marginally distinct temperature differences between built-up and vegetated areas in the two cities.

Investigating the impact of land-use land-cover change on Indian summer monsoon daily rainfall and temperature during 1951–2005 using a regional climate model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Halder, Subhadeep; Saha, Subodh K.; Dirmeyer, Paul A.

Daily moderate rainfall events, which constitute a major portion of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over central India, have decreased significantly during the period 1951 through 2005. On the other hand, mean and extreme near-surface daily temperature during the monsoon season have increased by a maximum of 1–1.5 °C. Using simulations made with a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM4) and prescribed land cover of years 1950 and 2005, it is demonstrated that part of the changes in moderate rainfall events and temperature have been caused by land-use/land-cover change (LULCC), which is mostly anthropogenic. Model simulations show that the increase in seasonal mean and extreme temperature over centralmore » India coincides with the region of decrease in forest and increase in crop cover. Our results also show that LULCC alone causes warming in the extremes of daily mean and maximum temperatures by a maximum of 1–1.2 °C, which is comparable with the observed increasing trend in the extremes. Decrease in forest cover and simultaneous increase in crops not only reduces the evapotranspiration over land and large-scale convective instability, but also contributes toward decrease in moisture convergence through reduced surface roughness. These factors act together in reducing significantly the moderate rainfall events and the amount of rainfall in that category over central India. Additionally, the model simulations are repeated by removing the warming trend in sea surface temperatures over the Indian Ocean. As a result, enhanced warming at the surface and greater decrease in moderate rainfall events over central India compared to the earlier set of simulations are noticed. Results from these additional experiments corroborate our initial findings and confirm the contribution of LULCC in the decrease in moderate rainfall events and increase in daily mean and extreme temperature over India. Therefore, this study demonstrates the important implications of LULCC over India during the monsoon season. Although, the regional climate model helps in better resolving land–atmosphere feedbacks over the Indian region, the inferences do depend on the fidelity of the model in capturing the features of Indian monsoon realistically. Lastly, it is proposed that similar studies using a suite of climate models will further enrich our understanding about the role of LULCC in the Indian monsoon climate.« less

Investigating the impact of land-use land-cover change on Indian summer monsoon daily rainfall and temperature during 1951–2005 using a regional climate model

DOE PAGES

Halder, Subhadeep; Saha, Subodh K.; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; ...

2016-05-10

Daily moderate rainfall events, which constitute a major portion of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over central India, have decreased significantly during the period 1951 through 2005. On the other hand, mean and extreme near-surface daily temperature during the monsoon season have increased by a maximum of 1–1.5 °C. Using simulations made with a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM4) and prescribed land cover of years 1950 and 2005, it is demonstrated that part of the changes in moderate rainfall events and temperature have been caused by land-use/land-cover change (LULCC), which is mostly anthropogenic. Model simulations show that the increase in seasonal mean and extreme temperature over centralmore » India coincides with the region of decrease in forest and increase in crop cover. Our results also show that LULCC alone causes warming in the extremes of daily mean and maximum temperatures by a maximum of 1–1.2 °C, which is comparable with the observed increasing trend in the extremes. Decrease in forest cover and simultaneous increase in crops not only reduces the evapotranspiration over land and large-scale convective instability, but also contributes toward decrease in moisture convergence through reduced surface roughness. These factors act together in reducing significantly the moderate rainfall events and the amount of rainfall in that category over central India. Additionally, the model simulations are repeated by removing the warming trend in sea surface temperatures over the Indian Ocean. As a result, enhanced warming at the surface and greater decrease in moderate rainfall events over central India compared to the earlier set of simulations are noticed. Results from these additional experiments corroborate our initial findings and confirm the contribution of LULCC in the decrease in moderate rainfall events and increase in daily mean and extreme temperature over India. Therefore, this study demonstrates the important implications of LULCC over India during the monsoon season. Although, the regional climate model helps in better resolving land–atmosphere feedbacks over the Indian region, the inferences do depend on the fidelity of the model in capturing the features of Indian monsoon realistically. Lastly, it is proposed that similar studies using a suite of climate models will further enrich our understanding about the role of LULCC in the Indian monsoon climate.« less

Effect of temperature and temperature fluctuation on thermophilic anaerobic digestion of cattle manure.

PubMed

El-Mashad, Hamed M; Zeeman, Grietje; van Loon, Wilko K P; Bot, Gerard P A; Lettinga, Gatze

2004-11-01

The influence of temperature, 50 and 60 degrees C, at hydraulic retention times (HRTs) of 20 and 10 days, on the performance of anaerobic digestion of cow manure has been investigated in completely stirred tank reactors (CSTRs). Furthermore, the effect of both daily downward and daily upward temperature fluctuations has been studied. In the daily downward temperature fluctuation regime the temperatures of each reactor was reduced by 10 degrees C for 10 h while in the daily upward fluctuation regime the temperature of each reactor was increased 10 degrees C for 5 h. The results show that the methane production rate at 60 degrees C is lower than that at 50 degrees C at all experimental conditions of imposed HRT except when downward temperature fluctuations were applied at an HRT of 10 days. It also was found that the free ammonia concentration not only affects the acetate-utilising bacteria but also the hydrolysis and acidification process. The upward temperature fluctuation affects the maximum specific methanogenesis activity more severely as compared to imposed downward temperature fluctuations. The results clearly reveal the possibility of using available solar energy at daytime to heat up the reactor(s) without the need of heat storage during nights, especially at an operational temperature of 50 degrees C and at a 20 days HRT, and without the jeopardising of the overheating.

Diurnal variation of intraoral pH and temperature.

PubMed

Choi, Jung Eun; Lyons, Karl M; Kieser, Jules A; Waddell, Neil J

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to measure continuously the intraoral pH and temperature of healthy individuals to investigate their diurnal variations. Seventeen participants (mean age, 31±9 years) wore a custom-made intraoral appliance fitted with a pH probe and thermocouple for two sets of 24 h, while carrying out normal daily activities including sleep. The continuous changes in intraoral pH and temperature were captured using a sensor placed on the palatal aspect of the upper central incisors. The collected data were categorised into different status (awake and sleep) and periods (morning, afternoon, evening and night). Both quantitative and qualitative analyses were conducted. The intraoral pH change was found to show a distinctive daily rhythm, showing a 12-h interval between maximum (7.73) and minimum (6.6) pH values. The maximum and minimum values were found to repeat after 24 h. The mean pH over 48 h (two sets of 24 h) was found to be 7.27 (±0.74). There was significant difference found in pH when subjects were awake and asleep and different periods during the day ( P <0.001). The mean intraoral temperature was 33.99 °C (±4.9), with less distinctive daily rhythm compared with pH. There was a significant difference found in temperature depending on the time of the day, except between morning and afternoon ( P =0.78). Our results showed that there is a distinctive daily, circadian-like pattern in intraoral pH variation over a 24-h period, which has been considered as one of the risk factors in sleep-related dental diseases.

Trends in record-breaking temperatures for the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowe, Clinton M.; Derry, Logan E.

2012-08-01

In an unchanging climate, record-breaking temperatures are expected to decrease in frequency over time, as established records become increasingly more difficult to surpass. This inherent trend in the number of record-breaking events confounds the interpretation of actual trends in the presence of any underlying climate change. Here, a simple technique to remove the inherent trend is introduced so that any remaining trend can be examined separately for evidence of a climate change. As this technique does not use the standard definition of a broken record, our records* are differentiated by an asterisk. Results for the period 1961-2010 indicate that the number of record* low daily minimum temperatures has been significantly and steadily decreasing nearly everywhere across the United States while the number of record* high daily minimum temperatures has been predominantly increasing. Trends in record* low and record* high daily maximum temperatures are generally weaker and more spatially mixed in sign. These results are consistent with other studies examining changes expected in a warming climate.

Does hot weather affect work-related injury? A case-crossover study in Guangzhou, China.

PubMed

Sheng, Rongrong; Li, Changchang; Wang, Qiong; Yang, Lianping; Bao, Junzhe; Wang, Kaiwen; Ma, Rui; Gao, Chuansi; Lin, Shao; Zhang, Ying; Bi, Peng; Fu, Chuandong; Huang, Cunrui

2018-04-01

Despite increasing concerns about the health effects of climate change, the extent to which workers are affected by hot weather is not well documented. This study aims to investigate the association between high temperatures and work-related injuries using data from a large subtropical city in China. We used workers' compensation claims to identify work-related injuries in Guangzhou, China during 2011-2012. To feature the heat effect, the study period was restricted to the warm seasons in Guangzhou (1 May-31 October). We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study to examine the association between ambient outdoor temperatures, including daily maximum and minimum temperatures, and cases of work-related injury. The relationships were assessed using conditional Poisson regression models. Overall, a total of 5418 workers' compensation claims were included over the study period. Both maximum and minimum temperatures were significantly associated with work-related injuries, but associations varied by subgroup. One °C increase in maximum temperature was associated with a 1.4% (RR = 1.014, 95%CIs 1.012-1.017) increase in daily injury claims. Significant associations were seen for male and middle-aged workers, workers in small and medium-sized enterprises, and those working in manufacturing sector. And 1 °C increase in minimum temperature was associated with 1.7% (RR = 1.017, 95%CIs 1.012-1.021) increase in daily injury claims. Significant associations were observed for female and middle-aged workers, workers in large-sized enterprises, and those working in transport and construction sectors. We found a higher risk of work-related injuries due to hot weather in Guangzhou, China. This study provides important epidemiological evidence for policy-makers and industry that may assist in the formulation of occupational safety and climate adaptation strategies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Screening procedure to assess the impact of urban stormwater temperature to populations of brown trout in receiving water.

PubMed

Rossi, Luca; Hari, Renata E

2007-07-01

The discharge of urban stormwater may cause a sudden temperature increase in receiving waters that may be harmful to fish and other aquatic organisms. A screening procedure is proposed with temperature thresholds for the runoff from roofs and roads as well as for the receiving water system to protect brown trout from thermal damage. The stormwater temperature is calculated on the basis of a simple thermodynamic estimate for different latitudes. Only receiving waters with maximum daily mean temperatures of 22 degrees C (T1) are considered potential habitats for brown trout. The maximum temperature for a 1-h exposure time with a safety margin for 100% survival is 25 degrees C (T2), the sudden temperature change at the beginning of a rain event must not exceed 7 degrees C (T3), and fish-egg development requires the daily maximum temperature in winter to be below 12 degrees C (T4). Examples of stormwater runoff from roof or road surfaces from Switzerland validate our approach within +/-0.5 degrees C. Effects of runoff into receiving waters without detailed data can be predicted within +/-0.8 degrees C. With the restriction by T1, T2 seems not to be an acute problem at Swiss latitudes. T3 could play a role, especially if a large amount of runoff is discharged in small and rather cool rivers and streams. Finally, T4 deserves more attention than hitherto given. The proposed procedure may be a useful tool for assessing the influence of urban stormwater on the temperature of the receiving waters, particularly with regard to predicting the thermal impacts of urban or suburban runoff to populations of brown trout.

Diurnal warming in shallow coastal seas: Observations from the Caribbean and Great Barrier Reef regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, X.; Minnett, P. J.; Berkelmans, R.; Hendee, J.; Manfrino, C.

2014-07-01

A good understanding of diurnal warming in the upper ocean is important for the validation of satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) against in-situ buoy data and for merging satellite SSTs taken at different times of the same day. For shallow coastal regions, better understanding of diurnal heating could also help improve monitoring and prediction of ecosystem health, such as coral reef bleaching. Compared to its open ocean counterpart which has been studied extensively and modeled with good success, coastal diurnal warming has complicating localized characteristics, including coastline geometry, bathymetry, water types, tidal and wave mixing. Our goal is to characterize coastal diurnal warming using two extensive in-situ temperature and weather datasets from the Caribbean and Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Results showed clear daily warming patterns in most stations from both datasets. For the three Caribbean stations where solar radiation is the main cause of daily warming, the mean diurnal warming amplitudes were about 0.4 K at depths of 4-7 m and 0.6-0.7 K at shallower depths of 1-2 m; the largest warming value was 2.1 K. For coral top temperatures of the GBR, 20% of days had warming amplitudes >1 K, with the largest >4 K. The bottom warming at shallower sites has higher daily maximum temperatures and lower daily minimum temperatures than deeper sites nearby. The averaged daily warming amplitudes were shown to be closely related to daily average wind speed and maximum insolation, as found in the open ocean. Diurnal heating also depends on local features including water depth, location on different sections of the reef (reef flat vs. reef slope), the relative distance from the barrier reef chain (coast vs. lagoon stations vs. inner barrier reef sites vs. outer rim sites); and the proximity to the tidal inlets. In addition, the influence of tides on daily temperature changes and its relative importance compared to solar radiation was quantified by calculating the ratio of power spectrum densities at the principal lunar semidiurnal M2 tide versus 24-hour cycle frequency representing mainly solar radiation forcing, i.e., (PSDM2/PSD24). Despite the fact that GBR stations are generally located at regions with large tidal changes, the tidal effects were modest: 80% of stations showed value of (PSDM2/PSD24) of less than 10%.

Effects of extremely hot days on people older than 65 years in Seville (Spain) from 1986 to 1997

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Díaz, J.; García, R.; Velázquez de Castro, F.; Hernández, E.; López, C.; Otero, A.

2002-04-01

The effects of heat waves on the population have been described by different authors and a consistent relationship between mortality and temperature has been found, especially in elderly subjects. The present paper studies this effect in Seville, a city in the south of Spain, known for its climate of mild winters and hot summers, when the temperature frequently exceeds 40 °C. This study focuses on the summer months (June to September) for the years from 1986 to 1997. The relationships between total daily mortality and different specific causes for persons older than 65 and 75 years, of each gender, were analysed. Maximum daily temperature and relative humidity at 7.00 a.m. were introduced as environmental variables. The possible confounding effect of different atmospheric pollutants, particularly ozone, were considered. The methodology employed was time series analysis using Box-Jenkins models with exogenous variables. On the basis of dispersion diagrams, we defined extremely hot days as those when the maximum daily temperature surpassed 41 °C. The ARIMA model clearly shows the relationship between temperature and mortality. Mortality for all causes increased up to 51% above the average in the group over 75 years for each degree Celsius beyond 41 °C. The effect is more noticeable for cardiovascular than for respiratory diseases, and more in women than in men. Among the atmospheric pollutants, a relation was found between mortality and concentrations of ozone, especially for men older than 75.

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary con- ditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045–2054 and 2085–2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995–2004). Probabilitymore » density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Finally, using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5–10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥ 95°F days will increase by 1–2 months by the end of the century.« less

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

DOE PAGES

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; ...

2017-11-20

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary con- ditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045–2054 and 2085–2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995–2004). Probabilitymore » density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Finally, using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5–10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥ 95°F days will increase by 1–2 months by the end of the century.« less

Spatial and temporal variation in daily temperature indices in summer and winter seasons over India (1969-2012)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Naresh; Jaswal, A. K.; Mohapatra, M.; Kore, P. A.

2017-08-01

Spatial and temporal variations in summer and winter extreme temperature indices are studied by using daily maximum and minimum temperatures data from 227 surface meteorological stations well distributed over India for the period 1969-2012. For this purpose, time series for six extreme temperature indices namely, hot days (HD), very hot days (VHD), extremely hot days (EHD), cold nights (CN), very cold nights (VCN), and extremely cold nights (ECN) are calculated for all the stations. In addition, time series for mean extreme temperature indices of summer and winter seasons are also analyzed. Study reveals high variability in spatial distribution of threshold temperatures of extreme temperature indices over the country. In general, increasing trends are observed in summer hot days indices and decreasing trends in winter cold night indices over most parts of the country. The results obtained in this study indicate warming in summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures over India. Averaged over India, trends in summer hot days indices HD, VHD, and EHD are significantly increasing (+1.0, +0.64, and +0.32 days/decade, respectively) and winter cold night indices CN, VCN, and ECN are significantly decreasing (-0.93, -0.47, and -0.15 days/decade, respectively). Also, it is observed that the impact of extreme temperature is higher along the west coast for summer and east coast for winter.

Temperature Effects of Point Sources, Riparian Shading, and Dam Operations on the Willamette River, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rounds, Stewart A.

2007-01-01

Water temperature is an important factor influencing the migration, rearing, and spawning of several important fish species in rivers of the Pacific Northwest. To protect these fish populations and to fulfill its responsibilities under the Federal Clean Water Act, the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality set a water temperature Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) in 2006 for the Willamette River and the lower reaches of its largest tributaries in northwestern Oregon. As a result, the thermal discharges of the largest point sources of heat to the Willamette River now are limited at certain times of the year, riparian vegetation has been targeted for restoration, and upstream dams are recognized as important influences on downstream temperatures. Many of the prescribed point-source heat-load allocations are sufficiently restrictive that management agencies may need to expend considerable resources to meet those allocations. Trading heat allocations among point-source dischargers may be a more economical and efficient means of meeting the cumulative point-source temperature limits set by the TMDL. The cumulative nature of these limits, however, precludes simple one-to-one trades of heat from one point source to another; a more detailed spatial analysis is needed. In this investigation, the flow and temperature models that formed the basis of the Willamette temperature TMDL were used to determine a spatially indexed 'heating signature' for each of the modeled point sources, and those signatures then were combined into a user-friendly, spreadsheet-based screening tool. The Willamette River Point-Source Heat-Trading Tool allows the user to increase or decrease the heating signature of each source and thereby evaluate the effects of a wide range of potential point-source heat trades. The predictions of the Trading Tool were verified by running the Willamette flow and temperature models under four different trading scenarios, and the predictions typically were accurate to within about 0.005 degrees Celsius (?C). In addition to assessing the effects of point-source heat trades, the models were used to evaluate the temperature effects of several shade-restoration scenarios. Restoration of riparian shade along the entire Long Tom River, from its mouth to Fern Ridge Dam, was calculated to have a small but significant effect on daily maximum temperatures in the main-stem Willamette River, on the order of 0.03?C where the Long Tom River enters the Willamette River, and diminishing downstream. Model scenarios also were run to assess the effects of restoring selected 5-mile reaches of riparian vegetation along the main-stem Willamette River from river mile (RM) 176.80, just upstream of the point where the McKenzie River joins the Willamette River, to RM 116.87 near Albany, which is one location where cumulative point-source heating effects are at a maximum. Restoration of riparian vegetation along the main-stem Willamette River was shown by model runs to have a significant local effect on daily maximum river temperatures (0.046 to 0.194?C) at the site of restoration. The magnitude of the cooling depends on many factors including river width, flow, time of year, and the difference in vegetation characteristics between current and restored conditions. Downstream of the restored reach, the cooling effects are complex and have a nodal nature: at one-half day of travel time downstream, shade restoration has little effect on daily maximum temperature because water passes the restoration site at night; at 1 full day of travel time downstream, cooling effects increase to a second, diminished maximum. Such spatial complexities may complicate the trading of heat allocations between point and nonpoint sources. Upstream dams have an important effect on water temperature in the Willamette River system as a result of augmented flows as well as modified temperature releases over the course of the summer and autumn. The TMDL was formulated prior t

Body temperature, thermoregulatory behaviour and pelt characteristics of three colour morphs of springbok (Antidorcas marsupialis).

PubMed

Hetem, Robyn S; de Witt, Brenda A; Fick, Linda G; Fuller, Andrea; Kerley, Graham I H; Meyer, Leith C R; Mitchell, Duncan; Maloney, Shane K

2009-03-01

Using intra-abdominal miniature data loggers, we measured core body temperature in female springbok (Antidorcas marsupialis) of three colour morphs (black, normal and white), free-living in the Karoo, South Africa, for one year. During winter, white springbok displayed lower daily minimum body temperatures (37.4+/-0.5 degrees C), than both black (38.1+/-0.3 degrees C) and normal (38.0+/-0.6 degrees C) springbok. During spring, black springbok displayed higher daily maximum body temperatures (40.7+/-0.1 degrees C) than both white (40.2+/-0.2 degrees C) and normal (40.2+/-0.2 degrees C) springbok. These high maximum body temperatures were associated with larger daily amplitudes of nychthemeral rhythm of body temperature (2.0+/-0.2 degrees C), than that of white (1.6+/-0.1 degrees C) and normal (1.7+/-0.2 degrees C) springbok. Biophysical properties of sample springbok pelts were consistent with these patterns, as the black springbok pelt showed lower reflectance in the visible spectral range, and higher heat load from simulated solar radiation, than did the pelts of the other two springbok. Black springbok had lower diurnal activity in winter, consistent with them having to forage less because their metabolic cost of homeothermy was lower, but were disadvantaged in hot periods. White springbok, by contrast, were more protected from solar heat load, but potentially less able to meet the energy cost of homeothermy in winter. Thus energy considerations may underlie the rarity of the springbok colour morphs.

Climatic indicators over Catalonia during the last century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busto, M.; Prohom, M.

2010-09-01

The Meteorological Service of Catalonia releases a yearly bulletin whose main objective is to try to detect climate trends over Catalonia during the last decades. Climate indicators are obtained from the analysis of historical daily air temperature, sea temperature and rainfall series. Those series have been first completed, analyzed for quality control and homogenized to ensure its final reliability. Regarding homogenization, monthly air temperature series have been tested and corrected according to the methodology proposed by Caussinus and Mestre (2004). For the two longest air temperature series, the calculated correction factors have been transferred to the daily values following Vincent et al. (2002) recommendations, while no significant inhomogeneities have been detected for precipitation series. The analysis of temperature trends, for the period 1950-2010, of 17 selected climatic series spread across the territory shows a common temperature increase between +0.19 to +0.24 °C/decade. This warming trend is uniform and no specific sub-regional trends are detected. Furthermore, the seasonal approach reveals that mean maximum temperature increases at a higher rate than mean minimum temperature. The summer temperature rise is the most significant, between +0.32 and +0.44 °C/decade, while autumn is the only season showing no significant positive trend. The summer maximum temperature shows the highest increase, exceeding +0.39 °C/decade in all the 17 series. The climatic extremes analysis of the longest Catalan series (Ebre Observatory in Roquetes, Tarragona, since 1905 and Fabra Observatory in Barcelona since 1913) reveals an increase in the number of summer days, tropical nights, minimum of maximum temperature, warm days and warm nights, and a decrease in the number of frost days, cold nights, cold days and cold spell duration indicator. Concerning precipitation, the only significant trend is the reduction of snow days. These trends were calculated according to the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The sea temperature trend in l'Estartit (NE coast of Catalonia, Costa Brava) since 1974 shows a steady increment in all the measured levels (surface, -20 m, -50 m and -80 m) of +0,33 °C/decade on average. Temperature increment is maximum at -20 m, with +0.36 °C/decade variation. Moreover, there is an increase in the sea level of +3.35 cm/decade. CAUSSINUS, H. and MESTRE, O. (2004): Detection and correction of artificial shifts in climate series. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C - Applied Statistics, 53, 405-425. VINCENT, L.A., ZHANG, X., BONSAL, B.R., HOGG, W.D. (2002): Homogenization of daily temperatures over Canada. Journal of Climate, 15, 1322-1334

Investigating the relationship between weather and violence in Baltimore, Maryland, USA.

PubMed

Michel, Samuel J; Wang, Han; Selvarajah, Shalini; Canner, Joseph K; Murrill, Matthew; Chi, Albert; Efron, David T; Schneider, Eric B

2016-01-01

It is a common refrain at major urban trauma centers that caseloads increase in the heat of the summer. Several previous studies supported this assertion, finding trauma admissions and crime to correlate positively with temperature. We examined links between weather and violence in Baltimore, MD, through trauma presentation to Johns Hopkins Hospital and crime reports filed with the Baltimore Police Department. Crime data were obtained from the Baltimore City Police Department from January 1, 2008 to March 31, 2013. Trauma data were obtained from a prospectively collected registry of all trauma patients presenting to Johns Hopkins Hospital from January 1, 2007 to March 31, 2013. Weather data were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. Correlation coefficients were calculated and negative binomial regression was used to elucidate the independent associations of weather and temporal variables with the trauma and crime data. When adjusting for temporal and meteorological factors, maximum daily temperature was positively associated with total trauma, intentional injury, and gunshot wounds presenting to Johns Hopkins Hospital along with total crime, violent crime, and homicides in Baltimore City. Associations of average wind speed, daily precipitation, and daily snowfall with trauma and crime were far weaker and, when significant, nearly universally negative. Maximum daily temperature is the most important weather factor associated with violence and trauma in our study period and location. Our findings suggest potential implications for hospital staffing to be explored in future studies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of season and ambient temperature on outcome of guaiac-based faecal occult blood tests performed for colorectal cancer screening.

PubMed

Hunter, J P; Saratzis, A; Froggatt, P; Harmston, C

2012-09-01

Guaiac-based faecal occult blood tests (gFOBTs) are used in the colorectal cancer screening programme. Recent data suggested that the immunological faecal occult blood test illustrated a variation in positivity according to season and ambient temperature. Our aim was to assess the effect of season and ambient temperature on the positivity rates of the gFOBT during pilot screening for colorectal cancer. Data from the first year of round 1 of the pilot screening programme in Coventry and Warwickshire were analysed. Patients with positive and negative gFOBT samples were included. Patients with spoilt samples or incomplete data were excluded. Of the total of 59513 patients, 30311 were men and 29202 women. Mean age was 56 years. Daily temperature data were provided by the meteorological office. Median exposure of the gFOBT test card was 6 days (range 1-17). Median daily maximum temperature was 14°C. Spring and summer illustrated significantly decreased positivity rates compared with autumn and winter (Pearson's chi-squared test, P<0.001). Mean daily maximum temperature for the test card exposure showed no significant difference in positivity rates (P=0.53). Subgroup analysis revealed a significant reduction in positive samples in the >25°C subgroup (P=0.045). There is a seasonal variation in positivity rates of gFOBTs with increased positivity in spring and summer months. There is no difference in positivity rates in relation to ambient temperature except in subgroup analysis where there is a significant reduction in positivity rates above 25°C. © 2011 The Authors. Colorectal Disease © 2011 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

How changes of climate extremes affect summer and winter crop yields and water productivity in the southeast USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, D.; Cammarano, D.

2017-12-01

Modeling changes of crop production at regional scale is important to make adaptation measures for sustainably food supply under global change. In this study, we explore how changing climate extremes in the 20th and 21st century affect maize (summer crop) and wheat (winter crop) yields in an agriculturally important region: the southeast United States. We analyze historical (1950-1999) and projected (2006-2055) precipitation and temperature extremes by calculating the changes of 18 climate extreme indices using the statistically downscaled CMIP5 data from 10 general circulation models (GCMs). To evaluate how these climate extremes affect maize and wheat yields, historical baseline and projected maize and wheat yields under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are simulated using the DSSAT-CERES maize and wheat models driven by the same downscaled GCMs data. All of the changes are examined at 110 locations over the study region. The results show that most of the precipitation extreme indices do not have notable change; mean precipitation, precipitation intensity, and maximum 1-day precipitation are generally increased; the number of rainy days is decreased. The temperature extreme indices mostly showed increased values on mean temperature, number of high temperature days, diurnal temperature range, consecutive high temperature days, maximum daily maximum temperature, and minimum daily minimum temperature; the number of low temperature days and number of consecutive low temperature days are decreased. The conditional probabilistic relationships between changes in crop yields and changes in extreme indices suggested different responses of crop yields to climate extremes during sowing to anthesis and anthesis to maturity periods. Wheat yields and crop water productivity for wheat are increased due to an increased CO2 concentration and minimum temperature; evapotranspiration, maize yields, and crop water productivity for wheat are decreased owing to the increased temperature extremes. We found the effects of precipitation changes on both yields are relatively uncertain.

Current and Projected Heat-Related Morbidity and Mortality in Rhode Island.

PubMed

Kingsley, Samantha L; Eliot, Melissa N; Gold, Julia; Vanderslice, Robert R; Wellenius, Gregory A

2016-04-01

Climate change is expected to cause increases in heat-related mortality, especially among the elderly and very young. However, additional studies are needed to clarify the effects of heat on morbidity across all age groups and across a wider range of temperatures. We aimed to estimate the impact of current and projected future temperatures on morbidity and mortality in Rhode Island. We used Poisson regression models to estimate the association between daily maximum temperature and rates of all-cause and heat-related emergency department (ED) admissions and all-cause mortality. We then used downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5; a standardized set of climate change model simulations) projections to estimate the excess morbidity and mortality that would be observed if this population were exposed to the temperatures projected for 2046-2053 and 2092-2099 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP): RCP 8.5 and 4.5. Between 2005 and 2012, an increase in maximum daily temperature from 75 to 85°F was associated with 1.3% and 23.9% higher rates of all-cause and heat-related ED visits, respectively. The corresponding effect estimate for all-cause mortality from 1999 through 2011 was 4.0%. The association with all-cause ED admissions was strongest for those < 18 or ≥ 65 years of age, whereas the association with heat-related ED admissions was most pronounced among 18- to 64-year-olds. If this Rhode Island population were exposed to temperatures projected under RCP 8.5 for 2092-2099, we estimate that there would be 1.2% (range, 0.6-1.6%) and 24.4% (range, 6.9-41.8%) more all-cause and heat-related ED admissions, respectively, and 1.6% (range, 0.8-2.1%) more deaths annually between April and October. With all other factors held constant, our findings suggest that the current population of Rhode Island would experience substantially higher morbidity and mortality if maximum daily temperatures increase further as projected. Kingsley SL, Eliot MN, Gold J, Vanderslice RR, Wellenius GA. 2016. Current and projected heat-related morbidity and mortality in Rhode Island. Environ Health Perspect 124:460-467; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408826.

Development of daily temperature scenarios and their impact on paddy crop evapotranspiration in Kangsabati command area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhage, P. M.; Raghuwanshi, N. S.; Singh, R.; Mishra, A.

2017-05-01

Production of the principal paddy crop in West Bengal state of India is vulnerable to climate change due to limited water resources and strong dependence on surface irrigation. Therefore, assessment of impact of temperature scenarios on crop evapotranspiration (ETc) is essential for irrigation management in Kangsabati command (West Bengal). In the present study, impact of the projected temperatures on ETc was studied under climate change scenarios. Further, the performance of the bias correction and spatial downscaling (BCSD) technique was compared with the two well-known downscaling techniques, namely, multiple linear regression (MLR) and Kernel regression (KR), for the projections of daily maximum and minimum air temperatures for four stations, namely, Purulia, Bankura, Jhargram, and Kharagpur. In National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and General Circulation Model (GCM), 14 predictors were used in MLR and KR techniques, whereas maximum and minimum surface air temperature predictor of CanESM2 GCM was used in BCSD technique. The comparison results indicated that the performance of the BCSD technique was better than the MLR and KR techniques. Therefore, the BCSD technique was used to project the future temperatures of study locations with three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios for the period of 2006-2100. The warming tendencies of maximum and minimum temperatures over the Kangsabati command area were projected as 0.013 and 0.014 °C/year under RCP 2.6, 0.015 and 0.023 °C/year under RCP 4.5, and 0.056 and 0.061 °C/year under RCP 8.5 for 2011-2100 period, respectively. As a result, kharif (monsoon) crop evapotranspiration demand of Kangsabati reservoir command (project area) will increase by approximately 10, 8, and 18 % over historical demand under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios, respectively.

Modelling the occurrence of heat waves in maximum and minimum temperatures over Spain and projections for the period 2031-60

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abaurrea, J.; Asín, J.; Cebrián, A. C.

2018-02-01

The occurrence of extreme heat events in maximum and minimum daily temperatures is modelled using a non-homogeneous common Poisson shock process. It is applied to five Spanish locations, representative of the most common climates over the Iberian Peninsula. The model is based on an excess over threshold approach and distinguishes three types of extreme events: only in maximum temperature, only in minimum temperature and in both of them (simultaneous events). It takes into account the dependence between the occurrence of extreme events in both temperatures and its parameters are expressed as functions of time and temperature related covariates. The fitted models allow us to characterize the occurrence of extreme heat events and to compare their evolution in the different climates during the observed period. This model is also a useful tool for obtaining local projections of the occurrence rate of extreme heat events under climate change conditions, using the future downscaled temperature trajectories generated by Earth System Models. The projections for 2031-60 under scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 are obtained and analysed using the trajectories from four earth system models which have successfully passed a preliminary control analysis. Different graphical tools and summary measures of the projected daily intensities are used to quantify the climate change on a local scale. A high increase in the occurrence of extreme heat events, mainly in July and August, is projected in all the locations, all types of event and in the three scenarios, although in 2051-60 the increase is higher under RCP8.5. However, relevant differences are found between the evolution in the different climates and the types of event, with a specially high increase in the simultaneous ones.

[Response of indica rice spikelet differentiation and degeneration to air temperature and solar radiation of different sowing dates].

PubMed

Wang, Ya Liang; Zhang, Yu Ping; Xiang, Jing; Wang, Lei; Chen, Hui Zhe; Zhang, Yi Kai; Zhang, Wen Qian; Zhu, De Feng

2017-11-01

In this study, three rice varieties, including three-line hybrid indica rice Wuyou308 and Tianyouhuazhan, and inbred indica rice Huanghuazhan were used to investigate the effects of air temperature and solar radiation on rice growth duration and spikelet differentiation and degeneration. Ten sowing-date treatments were conducted in this field experiment. The results showed that the growth duration of three indica rice varieties were more sensitive to air temperature than to day-length. With average temperature increase of 1 ℃, panicle initiation advanced 1.5 days, but the panicle growth duration had no significant correlation with the temperature and day-length. The number of spikelets and differentiated spikelets revealed significant differences among different sowing dates. Increases in average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, effective accumulated temperature, temperature gap and the solar radiation benefited dry matter accumulation and spikelet differentiation of all varieties. With increases of effective accumulated temperature, diurnal temperature gap and solar radiation by 50 ℃, 1 ℃, 50 MJ·m -2 during panicle initiation stage, the number of differentiated spikelets increased 10.5, 14.3, 17.1 respectively. The rate of degenerated spikelets had a quadratic correlation with air temperature, extreme high and low temperature aggravated spikelets degeneration, and low temperature stress made worse effect than high temperature stress. The rate of spikelet degeneration dramatically rose with the temperature falling below the critical temperature, the critical effective accumulated temperature, daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature during panicle initiation were 550-600 ℃, 24.0-26.0 ℃, 32.0-34.0 ℃, 21.0-23.0 ℃, respectively. In practice, the natural condition of appropriate high temperature, large diurnal temperature gap and strong solar radiation were conducive to spikelet differentiation, and hindered the spikelet degeneration.

Trends in seasonal warm anomalies across the contiguous United States: Contributions from natural climate variability

Treesearch

Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Warren E. Heilman; Xindi Bian

2018-01-01

Many studies have shown the importance of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in contributing to observed upward trends in the occurrences of temperature extremes over the U.S. However, few studies have investigated the contributions of internal variability in the climate system to these observed trends. Here we use daily maximum temperature time series from the...

Short-term load forecasting of power system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Xiaobin

2017-05-01

In order to ensure the scientific nature of optimization about power system, it is necessary to improve the load forecasting accuracy. Power system load forecasting is based on accurate statistical data and survey data, starting from the history and current situation of electricity consumption, with a scientific method to predict the future development trend of power load and change the law of science. Short-term load forecasting is the basis of power system operation and analysis, which is of great significance to unit combination, economic dispatch and safety check. Therefore, the load forecasting of the power system is explained in detail in this paper. First, we use the data from 2012 to 2014 to establish the partial least squares model to regression analysis the relationship between daily maximum load, daily minimum load, daily average load and each meteorological factor, and select the highest peak by observing the regression coefficient histogram Day maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature and daily average temperature as the meteorological factors to improve the accuracy of load forecasting indicators. Secondly, in the case of uncertain climate impact, we use the time series model to predict the load data for 2015, respectively, the 2009-2014 load data were sorted out, through the previous six years of the data to forecast the data for this time in 2015. The criterion for the accuracy of the prediction is the average of the standard deviations for the prediction results and average load for the previous six years. Finally, considering the climate effect, we use the BP neural network model to predict the data in 2015, and optimize the forecast results on the basis of the time series model.

Impact of increasing heat waves on U.S. ozone episodes in the 2050s: Results from a multimodel analysis using extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, L.; Mickley, L. J.; Gilleland, E.

2016-04-01

We develop a statistical model using extreme value theory to estimate the 2000-2050 changes in ozone episodes across the United States. We model the relationships between daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) ozone in May-September over 2003-2012 using a Point Process (PP) model. At ~20% of the sites, a marked decrease in the ozone-temperature slope occurs at high temperatures, defined as ozone suppression. The PP model sometimes fails to capture ozone-Tmax relationships, so we refit the ozone-Tmax slope using logistic regression and a generalized Pareto distribution model. We then apply the resulting hybrid-extreme value theory model to projections of Tmax from an ensemble of downscaled climate models. Assuming constant anthropogenic emissions at the present level, we find an average increase of 2.3 d a-1 in ozone episodes (>75 ppbv) across the United States by the 2050s, with a change of +3-9 d a-1 at many sites.

Climate Extreme Events over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulygina, O.; Korshunova, N. N.; Razuvaev, V. N.; Groisman, P. Y.

2014-12-01

During the period of widespread instrumental observations in Northern Eurasia, the annual surface air temperature has increased by 1.5°C. Close to the north in the Arctic Ocean, the late summer sea ice extent has decreased by 40% providing a near-infinite source of water vapor for the dry Arctic atmosphere in the early cold season months. The contemporary sea ice changes are especially visible in the Eastern Hemisphere All these factors affect the change extreme events. Daily and sub-daily data of 940 stations to analyze variations in the space time distribution of extreme temperatures, precipitation, and wind over Russia were used. Changing in number of days with thaw over Russia was described. The total seasonal numbers of days, when daily surface air temperatures (wind, precipitation) were found to be above (below) selected thresholds, were used as indices of climate extremes. Changing in difference between maximum and minimum temperature (DTR) may produce a variety of effects on biological systems. All values falling within the intervals ranged from the lowest percentile to the 5th percentile and from the 95th percentile to the highest percentile for the time period of interest were considered as daily extremes. The number of days, N, when daily temperatures (wind, precipitation, DTR) were within the above mentioned intervals, was determined for the seasons of each year. Linear trends in the number of days were calculated for each station and for quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Regional analysis of extreme events was carried out using quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Maps (climatology, trends) are presented mostly for visualization purposes. Differences in regional characteristics of extreme events are accounted for over a large extent of the Russian territory and variety of its physical and geographical conditions. The number of days with maximum temperatures higher than the 95% percentile has increased in most of Russia and decreased in Siberia in spring and autumn. Reducing the number of days with extremely low air temperatures dominated in all seasons. At the same time, the number of days with abnormally low air temperatures has increased in Middle Volga region and south of Western Siberia. In most parts of European Russia observed increase in the number of days with heavy snowfalls.

A comparison of weather variables linked to infectious disease patterns using laboratory addresses and patient residence addresses.

PubMed

Djennad, Abdelmajid; Lo Iacono, Giovanni; Sarran, Christophe; Fleming, Lora E; Kessel, Anthony; Haines, Andy; Nichols, Gordon L

2018-04-27

To understand the impact of weather on infectious diseases, information on weather parameters at patient locations is needed, but this is not always accessible due to confidentiality or data availability. Weather parameters at nearby locations are often used as a proxy, but the accuracy of this practice is not known. Daily Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium cases across England and Wales were linked to local temperature and rainfall at the residence postcodes of the patients and at the corresponding postcodes of the laboratory where the patient's specimen was tested. The paired values of daily rainfall and temperature for the laboratory versus residence postcodes were interpolated from weather station data, and the results were analysed for agreement using linear regression. We also assessed potential dependency of the findings on the relative geographic distance between the patient's residence and the laboratory. There was significant and strong agreement between the daily values of rainfall and temperature at diagnostic laboratories with the values at the patient residence postcodes for samples containing the pathogens Campylobacter or Cryptosporidium. For rainfall, the R-squared was 0.96 for the former and 0.97 for the latter, and for maximum daily temperature, the R-squared was 0.99 for both. The overall mean distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was 11.9 km; however, the distribution of these distances exhibited a heavy tail, with some rare situations where the distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was larger than 500 km. These large distances impact the distributions of the weather variable discrepancies (i.e. the differences between weather parameters estimated at patient residence postcodes and those at laboratory postcodes), with discrepancies up to ±10 °C for the minimum and maximum temperature and 20 mm for rainfall. Nevertheless, the distributions of discrepancies (estimated separately for minimum and maximum temperature and rainfall), based on the cases where the distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was within 20 km, still exhibited tails somewhat longer than the corresponding exponential fits suggesting modest small scale variations in temperature and rainfall. The findings confirm that, for the purposes of studying the relationships between meteorological variables and infectious diseases using data based on laboratory postcodes, the weather results are sufficiently similar to justify the use of laboratory postcode as a surrogate for domestic postcode. Exclusion of the small percentage of cases where there is a large distance between the residence and the laboratory could increase the precision of estimates, but there are generally strong associations between daily weather parameters at residence and laboratory.

Contributions of radiative factors to enhanced dryland warming over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yanting; Guan, Xiaodan; Yu, Haipeng; Xie, Yongkun; Jin, Hongchun

2017-08-01

Enhanced near-surface atmospheric warming has occurred over East Asia in recent decades, especially in drylands. Although local factors have been confirmed to provide considerable contributions to this warming, such factors have not been sufficiently analyzed. In this study, we extracted the radiatively forced temperature (RFT) associated with the built-up greenhouse gases, aerosol emission, and various other radiative forcing over East Asia and found a close relationship between RFT and CO2. In addition, using climate model experiments, we explored the responses of temperature changes to black carbon (BC), CO2, and SO4 and found that the enhanced dryland warming induced by CO2 had the largest magnitude and was strengthened by the warming effect of BC. Moreover, the sensitivity of daily maximum and minimum temperature changes to BC, CO2, and SO4 was examined. It showed asymmetric responses of daily maximum and minimum temperature to radiative factors, which led to an obvious change of diurnal temperature range (DTR), especially in drylands. The DTR's response to CO2 is the most significant. Therefore, CO2 not only plays a dominant role in enhanced warming but also greatly affects the decrease of DTR in drylands. However, the mechanisms of these radiative factors' effects in the process of DTR change are not clear and require more investigation.

Heat waves in Senegal : detection, characterization and associated processes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnacoussa Sambou, Marie Jeanne; Janicot, Serge; Badiane, Daouda; Pohl, Benjamin; Dieng, Abdou L.; Gaye, Amadou T.

2017-04-01

Atmospheric configuration and synoptic evolution of patterns associated with Senegalese heat wave (HW) are examined on the period 1979-2014 using the Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD) observational database and ERA-Interim reanalysis. Since there is no objective and uniform definition of HW events, threshold methods based on atmospheric variables as daily maximum (Tmax) / minimum (Tmin) temperatures and daily mean apparent temperature (AT) are used to define HW threshold detection. Each criterion is related to a specific category of HW events: Tmax (warm day events), Tmin (warm night events) and AT (combining temperature and moisture). These definitions are used in order to characterize as well as possible the warm events over the Senegalese regions (oceanic versus continental region). Statistics on time evolution and spatial distribution of warm events are carried out over the 2 seasons of maximum temperature (March-May and October-November). For each season, a composite of HW events, as well as the most extended event over Senegal (as a case study) are analyzed using usual atmospheric fields (sea level pressure, geopotential height, total column water content, wind components, 2m temperature). This study is part of the project ACASIS (https://acasis.locean-ipsl.upmc.fr/doku.php) on heat waves occurrences over the Sahel and their impact on health. Keywords: heat wave, Senegal, ACASIS.

Selected meteorological and micrometeorological data for an arid site near Beatty, Nye County, Nevada, calendar year 1992

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, James L.

1996-01-01

il-heat-flux data were collected at a study site adjacent to a low-level radioactive-waste burial facility near Beatty, Nevada, for calendar year 1992. Data were collected in support of ongoing studies to estimate the potential for downward movement of radionuclides into the unsaturated sediments beneath waste-burial trenches at the arid facility. Data collected for the whole year include air temperature, relative humidity, vapor pressure, incident solar radiation, windspeed, wind direction, barometric pressure, and precipitation. Net radiation, soil temperature, and soil-heat flux data also were collected for part of the year. The data are summarized in tables and graphs.Instrumentation used at the site is discussed. The discussion includes the type, reported accuracy, and the mounting height of each sensor.During 1992, the hourly and 20-minute mean air temperatures ranged from -8.6 degrees Celsius, in January, to 42.3 degrees Celsius, in July. Hourly and 20-minute mean relative humidity ranged from 2 percent to 100 percent. Hourly and 20-minute mean vapor pressures ranged from 0.07 to 2.47 kilopascals. Daily maximum incident solar radiation values ranged from 115 to 1,021 watts per square meter. Daily maximum net radiation values ranged from 195 to 632 watts per square meter. Daily mean windspeed ranged from 0.6 to 8.1 meters per second. Wind direction was primarily from the northwest in fall, winter, and spring and was from the southeast, southwest, or northwest during the summer. Barometric pressures ranged from 100.16 kilopascals to 103.38 kilopascals. Total precipitation for 1992 was 165.3 millimeters, with more than 50 percent in February and March. Daily mean soil temperatures at a depth from 2 to 6 centimeters ranged from 10.7 to 39.1 degrees Celsius between June and October. Daily mean soil-heat flux at a dep*h of 8 centimeters ranged from -13.4 to 12.2 watts per square meter during the same period.

High-resolution daily gridded datasets of air temperature and wind speed for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brinckmann, S.; Krähenmann, S.; Bissolli, P.

2015-08-01

New high-resolution datasets for near surface daily air temperature (minimum, maximum and mean) and daily mean wind speed for Europe (the CORDEX domain) are provided for the period 2001-2010 for the purpose of regional model validation in the framework of DecReg, a sub-project of the German MiKlip project, which aims to develop decadal climate predictions. The main input data sources are hourly SYNOP observations, partly supplemented by station data from the ECA&D dataset (http://www.ecad.eu). These data are quality tested to eliminate erroneous data and various kinds of inhomogeneities. Grids in a resolution of 0.044° (5 km) are derived by spatial interpolation of these station data into the CORDEX area. For temperature interpolation a modified version of a regression kriging method developed by Krähenmann et al. (2011) is used. At first, predictor fields of altitude, continentality and zonal mean temperature are chosen for a regression applied to monthly station data. The residuals of the monthly regression and the deviations of the daily data from the monthly averages are interpolated using simple kriging in a second and third step. For wind speed a new method based on the concept used for temperature was developed, involving predictor fields of exposure, roughness length, coastal distance and ERA Interim reanalysis wind speed at 850 hPa. Interpolation uncertainty is estimated by means of the kriging variance and regression uncertainties. Furthermore, to assess the quality of the final daily grid data, cross validation is performed. Explained variance ranges from 70 to 90 % for monthly temperature and from 50 to 60 % for monthly wind speed. The resulting RMSE for the final daily grid data amounts to 1-2 °C and 1-1.5 m s-1 (depending on season and parameter) for daily temperature parameters and daily mean wind speed, respectively. The datasets presented in this article are published at http://dx.doi.org/10.5676/DWD_CDC/DECREG0110v1.

Assessment of extreme value distributions for maximum temperature in the Mediterranean area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Alexander; Hertig, Elke; Jacobeit, Jucundus

2015-04-01

Extreme maximum temperatures highly affect the natural as well as the societal environment Heat stress has great effects on flora, fauna and humans and culminates in heat related morbidity and mortality. Agriculture and different industries are severely affected by extreme air temperatures. Even more under climate change conditions, it is necessary to detect potential hazards which arise from changes in the distributional parameters of extreme values, and this is especially relevant for the Mediterranean region which is characterized as a climate change hot spot. Therefore statistical approaches are developed to estimate these parameters with a focus on non-stationarities emerging in the relationship between regional climate variables and their large-scale predictors like sea level pressure, geopotential heights, atmospheric temperatures and relative humidity. Gridded maximum temperature data from the daily E-OBS dataset (Haylock et al., 2008) with a spatial resolution of 0.25° x 0.25° from January 1950 until December 2012 are the predictands for the present analyses. A s-mode principal component analysis (PCA) has been performed in order to reduce data dimension and to retain different regions of similar maximum temperature variability. The grid box with the highest PC-loading represents the corresponding principal component. A central part of the analyses is the model development for temperature extremes under the use of extreme value statistics. A combined model is derived consisting of a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model and a quantile regression (QR) model which determines the GPD location parameters. The QR model as well as the scale parameters of the GPD model are conditioned by various large-scale predictor variables. In order to account for potential non-stationarities in the predictors-temperature relationships, a special calibration and validation scheme is applied, respectively. Haylock, M. R., N. Hofstra, A. M. G. Klein Tank, E. J. Klok, P. D. Jones, and M. New (2008), A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950 - 2006, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D20119, doi:10.1029/2008JD010201.

Thermal effects of dams in the Willamette River basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rounds, Stewart A.

2010-01-01

Methods were developed to assess the effects of dams on streamflow and water temperature in the Willamette River and its major tributaries. These methods were used to estimate the flows and temperatures that would occur at 14 dam sites in the absence of upstream dams, and river models were applied to simulate downstream flows and temperatures under a no-dams scenario. The dams selected for this study include 13 dams built and operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) as part of the Willamette Project, and 1 dam on the Clackamas River owned and operated by Portland General Electric (PGE). Streamflows in the absence of upstream dams for 2001-02 were estimated for USACE sites on the basis of measured releases, changes in reservoir storage, a correction for evaporative losses, and an accounting of flow effects from upstream dams. For the PGE dam, no-project streamflows were derived from a previous modeling effort that was part of a dam-relicensing process. Without-dam streamflows were characterized by higher peak flows in winter and spring and much lower flows in late summer, as compared to with-dam measured flows. Without-dam water temperatures were estimated from measured temperatures upstream of the reservoirs (the USACE sites) or derived from no-project model results (the PGE site). When using upstream data to estimate without-dam temperatures at dam sites, a typical downstream warming rate based on historical data and downstream river models was applied over the distance from the measurement point to the dam site, but only for conditions when the temperature data indicated that warming might be expected. Regressions with measured temperatures from nearby or similar sites were used to extend the without-dam temperature estimates to the entire 2001-02 time period. Without-dam temperature estimates were characterized by a more natural seasonal pattern, with a maximum in July or August, in contrast to the measured patterns at many of the tall dam sites where the annual maximum temperature typically occurred in September or October. Without-dam temperatures also tended to have more daily variation than with-dam temperatures. Examination of the without-dam temperature estimates indicated that dam sites could be grouped according to the amount of streamflow derived from high-elevation, spring-fed, and snowmelt-driven areas high in the Cascade Mountains (Cougar, Big Cliff/Detroit, River Mill, and Hills Creek Dams: Group A), as opposed to flow primarily derived from lower-elevation rainfall-driven drainages (Group B). Annual maximum temperatures for Group A ranged from 15 to 20 degree(s)C, expressed as the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADM), whereas annual maximum 7dADM temperatures for Group B ranged from 21 to 25 degrees C. Because summertime stream temperature is at least somewhat dependent on the upstream water source, it was important when estimating without-dam temperatures to use correlations to sites with similar upstream characteristics. For that reason, it also is important to maintain long-term, year-round temperature measurement stations at representative sites in each of the Willamette River basin's physiographic regions. Streamflow and temperature estimates downstream of the major dam sites and throughout the Willamette River were generated using existing CE-QUAL-W2 flow and temperature models. These models, originally developed for the Willamette River water-temperature Total Maximum Daily Load process, required only a few modifications to allow them to run under the greatly reduced without-dam flow conditions. Model scenarios both with and without upstream dams were run. Results showed that Willamette River streamflow without upstream dams was reduced to levels much closer to historical pre-dam conditions, with annual minimum streamflows approximately one-half or less of dam-augmented levels. Thermal effects of the dams varied according to the time of year, from cooling in mid-summer to warm

Modeling the survivability of brucella to exposure of Ultraviolet radiation and temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howe, R.

Accumulated summation of daily Ultra Violet-B (UV-B = 290? to 320 ? ) data? from The USDA Ultraviolet Radiation Monitoring Program show good correlation (R^2 = 77%) with daily temperature data during the five month period from February through June, 1998. Exposure of disease organisms, such as brucella to the effects of accumulated UV-B radiation, can be modeled for a 5 month period from February through June, 1998. Estimates of a lethal dosage for brucell of UV-B in the environment is dependent on minimum/maximum temperature and Solar Zenith Angle for the time period. The accumulated increase in temperature over this period also effects the decomposition of an aborted fetus containing brucella. Decomposition begins at some minimum daily temperature at 27 to 30 degrees C and peaks at 39 to 40C. It is useful to view the summation of temperature as a threshold for other bacteria growth, so that accumulated temperature greater than some value causes decomposition through competition with other bacteria and brucella die from the accumulated effects of UV-B, temperature and organism competition. Results of a study (Cook 1998) to determine survivability of brucellosis in the environment through exposure of aborted bovine fetuses show no one cause can be attributed to death of the disease agent. The combination of daily increase in temperature and accumulated UV-B radiation reveal an inverse correlation to survivability data and can be modeled as an indicator of brucella survivability in the environment in arid regions.

Development and Evaluation of High-Resolution Climate Simulations Over the Mountainous Northeastern United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winter, Jonathan M.; Beckage, Brian; Bucini, Gabriela; Horton, Radley M.; Clemins, Patrick J.

2016-01-01

The mountain regions of the northeastern United States are a critical socioeconomic resource for Vermont, New York State, New Hampshire, Maine, and southern Quebec. While global climate models (GCMs) are important tools for climate change risk assessment at regional scales, even the increased spatial resolution of statistically downscaled GCMs (commonly approximately 1/ 8 deg) is not sufficient for hydrologic, ecologic, and land-use modeling of small watersheds within the mountainous Northeast. To address this limitation, an ensemble of topographically downscaled, high-resolution (30"), daily 2-m maximum air temperature; 2-m minimum air temperature; and precipitation simulations are developed for the mountainous Northeast by applying an additional level of downscaling to intermediately downscaled (1/ 8 deg) data using high-resolution topography and station observations. First, observed relationships between 2-m air temperature and elevation and between precipitation and elevation are derived. Then, these relationships are combined with spatial interpolation to enhance the resolution of intermediately downscaled GCM simulations. The resulting topographically downscaled dataset is analyzed for its ability to reproduce station observations. Topographic downscaling adds value to intermediately downscaled maximum and minimum 2-m air temperature at high-elevation stations, as well as moderately improves domain-averaged maximum and minimum 2-m air temperature. Topographic downscaling also improves mean precipitation but not daily probability distributions of precipitation. Overall, the utility of topographic downscaling is dependent on the initial bias of the intermediately downscaled product and the magnitude of the elevation adjustment. As the initial bias or elevation adjustment increases, more value is added to the topographically downscaled product.

Mortality impact of extreme winter temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Díaz, Julio; García, Ricardo; López, César; Linares, Cristina; Tobías, Aurelio; Prieto, Luis

2005-01-01

During the last few years great attention has been paid to the evaluation of the impact of extreme temperatures on human health. This paper examines the effect of extreme winter temperature on mortality in Madrid for people older than 65, using ARIMA and GAM models. Data correspond to 1,815 winter days over the period 1986 1997, during which time a total of 133,000 deaths occurred. The daily maximum temperature (Tmax) was shown to be the best thermal indicator of the impact of climate on mortality. When total mortality was considered, the maximum impact occured 7 8 days after a temperature extreme; for circulatory diseases the lag was between 7 and 14 days. When respiratory causes were considered, two mortality peaks were evident at 4 5 and 11 days. When the impact of winter extreme temperatures was compared with that associated with summer extremes, it was found to occur over a longer term, and appeared to be more indirect.

Early meteorological results from the viking 2 lander.

PubMed

Hess, S L; Henry, R M; Leovy, C B; Mitchell, J L; Ryan, J A; Tillman, J E

1976-12-11

Early results from the meteorological instruments on the Viking 2 lander are presented. As on lander 1, the daily patterns of temperature, wind, and pressure have been highly repetitive during the early summer period. The average daily maximum temperature was 241 degrees K and the diurnal minimum was 191 degrees K. The wind has a vector mean of 0.7 meter per second from the southeast with a diurnal amplitude of 3 meters per second. Pressure exhibits both diurnal and semidiurnal oscillations, although of substantially smaller amplitude than those of lander 1. Departures from the repetitive diurnal patterns begin to appear on sol 37.

Accuracy evaluation of ClimGen weather generator and daily to hourly disaggregation methods in tropical conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safeeq, Mohammad; Fares, Ali

2011-12-01

Daily and sub-daily weather data are often required for hydrological and environmental modeling. Various weather generator programs have been used to generate synthetic climate data where observed climate data are limited. In this study, a weather data generator, ClimGen, was evaluated for generating information on daily precipitation, temperature, and wind speed at four tropical watersheds located in Hawai`i, USA. We also evaluated different daily to sub-daily weather data disaggregation methods for precipitation, air temperature, dew point temperature, and wind speed at Mākaha watershed. The hydrologic significance values of the different disaggregation methods were evaluated using Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model. MuDRain and diurnal method performed well over uniform distribution in disaggregating daily precipitation. However, the diurnal method is more consistent if accurate estimates of hourly precipitation intensities are desired. All of the air temperature disaggregation methods performed reasonably well, but goodness-of-fit statistics were slightly better for sine curve model with 2 h lag. Cosine model performed better than random model in disaggregating daily wind speed. The largest differences in annual water balance were related to wind speed followed by precipitation and dew point temperature. Simulated hourly streamflow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge were less sensitive to the method of disaggregating daily air temperature. ClimGen performed well in generating the minimum and maximum temperature and wind speed. However, for precipitation, it clearly underestimated the number of extreme rainfall events with an intensity of >100 mm/day in all four locations. ClimGen was unable to replicate the distribution of observed precipitation at three locations (Honolulu, Kahului, and Hilo). ClimGen was able to reproduce the distributions of observed minimum temperature at Kahului and wind speed at Kahului and Hilo. Although the weather data generation and disaggregation methods were concentrated in a few Hawaiian watersheds, the results presented can be used to similar mountainous location settings, as well as any specific locations aimed at furthering the site-specific performance evaluation of these tested models.

Linkage Between Hourly Precipitation Events and Atmospheric Temperature Changes over China during the Warm Season

PubMed Central

Miao, Chiyuan; Sun, Qiaohong; Borthwick, Alistair G. L.; Duan, Qingyun

2016-01-01

We investigated changes in the temporospatial features of hourly precipitation during the warm season over mainland China. The frequency and amount of hourly precipitation displayed latitudinal zonation, especially for light and moderate precipitation, which showed successive downward change over time in northeastern and southern China. Changes in the precipitation amount resulted mainly from changes in frequency rather than changes in intensity. We also evaluated the linkage between hourly precipitation and temperature variations and found that hourly precipitation extreme was more sensitive to temperature than other categories of precipitation. A strong dependency of hourly precipitation on temperature occurred at temperatures colder than the median daily temperature; in such cases, regression slopes were greater than the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation of 7% per degree Celsius. Regression slopes for 31.6%, 59.8%, 96.9%, and 99.1% of all stations were greater than 7% per degree Celsius for the 75th, 90th, 99th, and 99.9th percentiles for precipitation, respectively. The mean regression slopes within the 99.9th percentile of precipitation were three times the C-C rate. Hourly precipitation showed a strong negative relationship with daily maximum temperature and the diurnal temperature range at most stations, whereas the equivalent correlation for daily minimum temperature was weak. PMID:26931350

The Effects of Temperature and Precipitation on the Yield of Zea Mays L. I the Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stooksbury, David Emory

Three families of straightforward maize (Zea mays L.) yield/climate models using monthly temperature and precipitation terms are produced. One family of models uses USDA's Crop Reporting Districts (CRD) as its scale of aggregation. The other two families of models use three different district aggregates based on climate or yield patterns. The climate and yield districts are determined by using a two-stage cluster analysis. The CRD-based family of models perform as well as the climate and yield based models. All models explain between 80% and 90% of the variance in maize yield. The most important climate term affecting maize yield in the South is the daily maximum temperature at pollination time. The higher the maximum temperature, the lower the yield. Above normal minimum temperature during pollination increases yield in the Middle South. Weather that favors early planting and rapid vegetative growth increases yield. Ideal maize yield weather includes a dry period during planting followed by a warm period during vegetative growth. Moisture variables are important only during the planting and harvest periods when above normal precipitation delays field work and thereby reduces yield. The model results indicate that the dire predictions about the fate of Southern agriculture in a trace gas warmed world may not be true. This is due to the overwhelming influence of the daily maximum temperature on yield. An optimum aggregate for climate impact studies was not found. I postulate that this is due to the dynamic nature of the American maize production system. For most climate impact studies on a dynamic agricultural system, there does not need to be a concern about the model aggregation.

The effect of future reduction in aerosol emissions on climate extremes in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Yang, Meilin; Xu, Yangyang

2016-11-01

This study investigates the effect of reduced aerosol emissions on projected temperature and precipitation extremes in China during 2031-2050 and 2081-2100 relative to present-day conditions using the daily data output from the Community Earth System Model ensemble simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 with an applied aerosol reduction and RCP8.5 with fixed 2005 aerosol emissions (RCP8.5_FixA) scenarios. The reduced aerosol emissions of RCP8.5 magnify the warming effect due to greenhouse gases (GHG) and lead to significant increases in temperature extremes, such as the maximum of daily maximum temperature (TXx), minimum of daily minimum temperature (TNn), and tropical nights (TR), and precipitation extremes, such as the maximum 5-day precipitation amount, number of heavy precipitation days, and annual total precipitation from days ˃95th percentile, in China. The projected TXx, TNn, and TR averaged over China increase by 1.2 ± 0.2 °C (4.4 ± 0.2 °C), 1.3 ± 0.2 °C (4.8 ± 0.2 °C), and 8.2 ± 1.2 (30.9 ± 1.4) days, respectively, during 2031-2050 (2081-2100) under the RCP8.5_FixA scenario, whereas the corresponding values are 1.6 ± 0.1 °C (5.3 ± 0.2 °C), 1.8 ± 0.2 °C (5.6 ± 0.2 °C), and 11.9 ± 0.9 (38.4 ± 1.0) days under the RCP8.5 scenario. Nationally averaged increases in all of those extreme precipitation indices above due to the aerosol reduction account for more than 30 % of the extreme precipitation increases under the RCP8.5 scenario. Moreover, the aerosol reduction leads to decreases in frost days and consecutive dry days averaged over China. There are great regional differences in changes of climate extremes caused by the aerosol reduction. When normalized by global mean surface temperature changes, aerosols have larger effects on temperature and precipitation extremes over China than GHG.

THE EFFECT OF TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ON THE TOBACCO POWDERY MILDEW FUNGUS

DTIC Science & Technology

The influence of temperature on the germination of conidia and on the infection of tobacco by powdery mildew was determined. For the former the...The existence of a very close correlation between the occurrence of powdery mildew in certain tobacco areas and the average daily maximum-minimum...temperatures prevailing in those areas could be shown. It was found, for example, that powdery mildew did not occur in areas in which the prevailing

The Impacts of Rising Temperatures on Aircraft Takeoff Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coffel, Ethan; Thompson, Terence R.; Horton, Radley M.

2017-01-01

Steadily rising mean and extreme temperatures as a result of climate change will likely impact the air transportation system over the coming decades. As air temperatures rise at constant pressure, air density declines, resulting in less lift generation by an aircraft wing at a given airspeed and potentially imposing a weight restriction on departing aircraft. This study presents a general model to project future weight restrictions across a fleet of aircraft with different takeoff weights operating at a variety of airports. We construct performance models for five common commercial aircraft and 19 major airports around the world and use projections of daily temperatures from the CMIP5 model suite under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios to calculate required hourly weight restriction. We find that on average, 10 - 30% of annual flights departing at the time of daily maximum temperature may require some weight restriction below their maximum takeoff weights, with mean restrictions ranging from 0.5 to 4% of total aircraft payload and fuel capacity by mid- to late century. Both mid-sized and large aircraft are affected, and airports with short runways and high temperatures, or those at high elevations, will see the largest impacts. Our results suggest that weight restriction may impose a non-trivial cost on airlines and impact aviation operations around the world and that adaptation may be required in aircraft design, airline schedules, and/or runway lengths.

Microclimate and actual evapotranspiration in a humid coastal-plain environment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dennehy, K.F.; McMahon, P.B.

1987-01-01

Continuous hourly measurements of twelve meteorologic variables recorded during 1983 and 1984 were used to examine the microclimate and actual evapotranspiration at a low-level radioactive-waste burial site near Barnwell, South Carolina. The study area is in the Atlantic Coastal Plain of southwestern South Carolina. Monthly, daily, and hourly trends in net radiation, incoming and reflected short-wave radiation, incoming and emitted long-wave radiation, soil-heat flux, dry- and wet-bulb temperatures, soil temperatures, wind direction and speed, and precipitation were used to characterize the microclimate. Average daily air temperatures ranged from -9 to 32?? Celsius during the period of study. Net radiation varied from about -27 to 251 watts m-2 and was dominated by incoming short-wave radiation throughout the year. The peak net radiation during a summer day generally occurred 2-3h before the peak vapor pressure deficit. In the winter, these peaks occurred at about the same time of day. Monthly precipitation varied from 15 to 241 mm. The Bowen ratio method was used to estimate hourly evapotranspiration, which was summed to also give daily and monthly evapotranspiration. Actual evapotranspiration varied from 0.0 to 0.7 mm h-1, 0.8-5 mm d-1, and 20-140 mm month-1 during 1983 and 1984. The maximum rate of evapotranspiration generally occurred at the same time of day as maximum net radiation, suggesting net radiation was the main driving force for evapotranspiration. Precipitation exceeded evapotranspiration during 14 months of the 2yr study period. Late fall, winter, and early spring contained the majority of these months. The maximum excess precipitation was 115 mm in February 1983. ?? 1987.

Ecologic factors relating to firearm injuries and gun violence in Chicago.

PubMed

Kieltyka, Jude; Kucybala, Karolina; Crandall, Marie

2016-01-01

Firearm violence is a major burden on Chicago with greater than 1500 gunshot injuries occurring annually. Identifying ecologic variables related to the incidence of firearm-related injuries and crime could prove useful for developing new strategies for reducing gun-related injuries. The Illinois Trauma Registry (ITSR) and the Chicago Police Department's CLEAR (Citizen Law Enforcement Analysis and Reporting) dataset were retrospectively analyzed to investigate group-level factors potentially related to the incidence of gun-related injuries and crime in Chicago from 1999 through 2012. Multivariate linear regression was used to evaluate the effects of day of the week, daily maximum temperature, precipitation, and snow on the incidence of firearm-related injuries and crime. A total of 18,655 gunshot wounds occurred during the study period (ITSR, 1999-2009). There were 156,866 acts of gun violence identified in the CLEAR dataset (2002-2012). Day of the week, daily maximum temperature, and precipitation were associated with differential risks of gun injury and violence. Rain decreased firearm-related injuries by 9.80% [RR: 0.902, 95% CI: 0.854-0.950] and crime by 7.00% [RR: 0.930, 95% CI: 0.910-0.950]. Gunshot wounds were 33% [RR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.29-1.37] more frequent on Fridays and Saturdays and gun crime was 18% [RR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.16-1.20] more common on these days. Snow was not associated with firearm-related injuries or crime. Day of the week, daily maximum temperature, and rain are associated with the incidence of firearm-related injuries and crime. Understanding the effects of these variables may allow for the development of predictive models and for risk-adjusting injury and crime data. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Return levels of temperature extremes in southern Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahid, Maida; Blender, Richard; Lucarini, Valerio; Caterina Bramati, Maria

2017-12-01

Southern Pakistan (Sindh) is one of the hottest regions in the world and is highly vulnerable to temperature extremes. In order to improve rural and urban planning, it is useful to gather information about the recurrence of temperature extremes. In this work, return levels of the daily maximum temperature Tmax are estimated, as well as the daily maximum wet-bulb temperature TWmax extremes. We adopt the peaks over threshold (POT) method, which has not yet been used for similar studies in this region. Two main datasets are analyzed: temperatures observed at nine meteorological stations in southern Pakistan from 1980 to 2013, and the ERA-Interim (ECMWF reanalysis) data for the nearest corresponding locations. The analysis provides the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year return levels (RLs) of temperature extremes. The 90 % quantile is found to be a suitable threshold for all stations. We find that the RLs of the observed Tmax are above 50 °C at northern stations and above 45 °C at the southern stations. The RLs of the observed TWmax exceed 35 °C in the region, which is considered as a limit of survivability. The RLs estimated from the ERA-Interim data are lower by 3 to 5 °C than the RLs assessed for the nine meteorological stations. A simple bias correction applied to ERA-Interim data improves the RLs remarkably, yet discrepancies are still present. The results have potential implications for the risk assessment of extreme temperatures in Sindh.

Estimating wheat and maize daily evapotranspiration using artificial neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abrishami, Nazanin; Sepaskhah, Ali Reza; Shahrokhnia, Mohammad Hossein

2018-02-01

In this research, artificial neural network (ANN) is used for estimating wheat and maize daily standard evapotranspiration. Ten ANN models with different structures were designed for each crop. Daily climatic data [maximum temperature (T max), minimum temperature (T min), average temperature (T ave), maximum relative humidity (RHmax), minimum relative humidity (RHmin), average relative humidity (RHave), wind speed (U 2), sunshine hours (n), net radiation (Rn)], leaf area index (LAI), and plant height (h) were used as inputs. For five structures of ten, the evapotranspiration (ETC) values calculated by ETC = ET0 × K C equation (ET0 from Penman-Monteith equation and K C from FAO-56, ANNC) were used as outputs, and for the other five structures, the ETC values measured by weighing lysimeter (ANNM) were used as outputs. In all structures, a feed forward multiple-layer network with one or two hidden layers and sigmoid transfer function and BR or LM training algorithm was used. Favorite network was selected based on various statistical criteria. The results showed the suitable capability and acceptable accuracy of ANNs, particularly those having two hidden layers in their structure in estimating the daily evapotranspiration. Best model for estimation of maize daily evapotranspiration is «M»ANN1 C (8-4-2-1), with T max, T min, RHmax, RHmin, U 2, n, LAI, and h as input data and LM training rule and its statistical parameters (NRMSE, d, and R2) are 0.178, 0.980, and 0.982, respectively. Best model for estimation of wheat daily evapotranspiration is «W»ANN5 C (5-2-3-1), with T max, T min, Rn, LAI, and h as input data and LM training rule, its statistical parameters (NRMSE, d, and R 2) are 0.108, 0.987, and 0.981 respectively. In addition, if the calculated ETC used as the output of the network for both wheat and maize, higher accurate estimation was obtained. Therefore, ANN is suitable method for estimating evapotranspiration of wheat and maize.

Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention.

PubMed

Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Diaz, Julio; Hooyberghs, Hans; Lauwaet, Dirk; De Ridder, Koen; Linares, Cristina; Carmona, Rocio; Ortiz, Cristina; Kendrovski, Vladimir; Aerts, Raf; Van Nieuwenhuyse, An; Dunbar, Maria Bekker-Nielsen

2018-02-01

Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in several European cities. Heat-related mortality and morbidity is likely to increase under climate change scenarios without adequate prevention based on locally relevant evidence. We modelled the urban climate of Antwerp for the summer season during the period 1986-2015, and projected summer daily temperatures for two periods, one in the near (2026-2045) and one in the far future (2081-2100), under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We then analysed the relationship between temperature and mortality, as well as with hospital admissions for the period 2009-2013, and estimated the projected mortality in the near future and far future periods under changing climate and population, assuming alternatively no acclimatization and acclimatization based on a constant threshold percentile temperature. During the sample period 2009-2013 we observed an increase in daily mortality from a maximum daily temperature of 26°C, or the 89th percentile of the maximum daily temperature series. The annual average heat-related mortality in this period was 13.4 persons (95% CI: 3.8-23.4). No effect of heat was observed in the case of hospital admissions due to cardiorespiratory causes. Under a no acclimatization scenario, annual average heat-related mortality is multiplied by a factor of 1.7 in the near future (24.1deaths/year CI 95%: 6.78-41.94) and by a factor of 4.5 in the far future (60.38deaths/year CI 95%: 17.00-105.11). Under a heat acclimatization scenario, mortality does not increase significantly in the near or in the far future. These results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate, and the calibration of existing prevention activities in light of locally relevant evidence. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Use of Regional Climate Model Output for Hydrologic Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hay, L. E.; Clark, M. P.; Wilby, R. L.; Gutowski, W. J.; Leavesley, G. H.; Pan, Z.; Arritt, R. W.; Takle, E. S.

2001-12-01

Daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature time series from a Regional Climate Model (RegCM2) were used as input to a distributed hydrologic model for a rainfall-dominated basin (Alapaha River at Statenville, Georgia) and three snowmelt-dominated basins (Animas River at Durango, Colorado; East Fork of the Carson River near Gardnerville, Nevada; and Cle Elum River near Roslyn, Washington). For comparison purposes, spatially averaged daily data sets of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature were developed from measured data. These datasets included precipitation and temperature data for all stations that are located within the area of the RegCM2 model output used for each basin, but excluded station data used to calibrate the hydrologic model. Both the RegCM2 output and station data capture the gross aspects of the seasonal cycles of precipitation and temperature. However, in all four basins, the RegCM2- and station-based simulations of runoff show little skill on a daily basis (Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) values ranging from 0.05-0.37 for RegCM2 and -0.08-0.65 for station). When the precipitation and temperature biases are corrected in the RegCM2 output and station data sets (Bias-RegCM2 and Bias-station, respectively) the accuracy of the daily runoff simulations improve dramatically for the snowmelt-dominated basins. In the rainfall-dominated basin, runoff simulations based on the Bias-RegCM2 output show no skill (NS value of 0.09) whereas Bias-All simulated runoff improves (NS value improved from -0.08 to 0.72). These results indicate that the resolution of the RegCM2 output is appropriate for basin-scale modeling, but RegCM2 model output does not contain the day-to-day variability needed for basin-scale modeling in rainfall-dominated basins. Future work is warranted to identify the causes for systematic biases in RegCM2 simulations, develop methods to remove the biases, and improve RegCM2 simulations of daily variability in local climate.

A Statistical Model-Based Decision Support System for Managing Summer Stream Temperatures with Quantified Confidence Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neumann, D. W.; Zagona, E. A.; Rajagopalan, B.

2005-12-01

Warm summer stream temperatures due to low flows and high air temperatures are a critical water quality problem in many western U.S. river basins because they impact threatened fish species' habitat. Releases from storage reservoirs and river diversions are typically driven by human demands such as irrigation, municipal and industrial uses and hydropower production. Historically, fish needs have not been formally incorporated in the operating procedures, which do not supply adequate flows for fish in the warmest, driest periods. One way to address this problem is for local and federal organizations to purchase water rights to be used to increase flows, hence decrease temperatures. A statistical model-predictive technique for efficient and effective use of a limited supply of fish water has been developed and incorporated in a Decision Support System (DSS) that can be used in an operations mode to effectively use water acquired to mitigate warm stream temperatures. The DSS is a rule-based system that uses the empirical, statistical predictive model to predict maximum daily stream temperatures based on flows that meet the non-fish operating criteria, and to compute reservoir releases of allocated fish water when predicted temperatures exceed fish habitat temperature targets with a user specified confidence of the temperature predictions. The empirical model is developed using a step-wise linear regression procedure to select significant predictors, and includes the computation of a prediction confidence interval to quantify the uncertainty of the prediction. The DSS also includes a strategy for managing a limited amount of water throughout the season based on degree-days in which temperatures are allowed to exceed the preferred targets for a limited number of days that can be tolerated by the fish. The DSS is demonstrated by an example application to the Truckee River near Reno, Nevada using historical flows from 1988 through 1994. In this case, the statistical model predicts maximum daily Truckee River stream temperatures in June, July, and August using predicted maximum daily air temperature and modeled average daily flow. The empirical relationship was created using a step-wise linear regression selection process using 1993 and 1994 data. The adjusted R2 value for this relationship is 0.91. The model is validated using historic data and demonstrated in a predictive mode with a prediction confidence interval to quantify the uncertainty. Results indicate that the DSS could substantially reduce the number of target temperature violations, i.e., stream temperatures exceeding the target temperature levels detrimental to fish habitat. The results show that large volumes of water are necessary to meet a temperature target with a high degree of certainty and violations may still occur if all of the stored water is depleted. A lower degree of certainty requires less water but there is a higher probability that the temperature targets will be exceeded. Addition of the rules that consider degree-days resulted in a reduction of the number of temperature violations without increasing the amount of water used. This work is described in detail in publications referenced in the URL below.

Hot Weather Impacts on New York City Restaurant Food Safety Violations and Operations.

PubMed

Dominianni, Christine; Lane, Kathryn; Ahmed, Munerah; Johnson, Sarah; McKELVEY, Wendy; Ito, Kazuhiko

2018-06-06

Previous studies have shown that higher ambient air temperature is associated with increased incidence of gastrointestinal illnesses, possibly as a result of leaving potentially hazardous food in the temperature danger zone for too long. However, little is known about the effect of hot weather on restaurant practices to maintain safe food temperatures. We examined hot weather impacts on restaurant food safety violations and operations in New York City using quantitative and qualitative methods. We used data from 64,661 inspections conducted among 29,614 restaurants during May to September, 2011 to 2015. We used Poisson time-series regression to estimate the cumulative relative risk (CRR) of temperature-related food safety violations across a range of daily maximum temperature (13 to 40°C [56 to 104°F]) over a lag of 0 to 3 days. We present CRRs for an increase in daily maximum temperature from the median (28°C [82°F]) to the 95th percentile (34°C [93°F]) values. Maximum temperature increased the risk of violations for cold food holding above 5°C (41°F) (CRR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.14, 1.25) and insufficient refrigerated or hot holding equipment (CRR, 2.37; 95% CI, 2.02, 2.79). We also conducted focus groups among restaurant owners and managers to aid interpretation of findings and identify challenges or knowledge gaps that prevent hot weather preparedness. Focus group participants cited refrigeration issues as a common problem during hot weather. Participants expressed the need for more guidance on hot weather and power outages to be delivered concisely. Our findings suggest that hotter temperatures may compromise cold and hot food holding, possibly by straining refrigeration or other equipment. The findings have public health implications because holding potentially hazardous foods in the temperature danger zone allows foodborne pathogens to proliferate and increases risk for foodborne illness. Distribution of simple guidelines that can be easily accessed during emergencies could help restaurants respond better.

Spatial distribution of unidirectional trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Najeebullah; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi bin; Wang, Xiao-Jun

2018-06-01

Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries of the world to temperature extremes due to its predominant arid climate and geographic location in the fast temperature rising zone. Spatial distribution of the trends in annual and seasonal temperatures and temperature extremes over Pakistan has been assessed in this study. The gauge-based gridded daily temperature data of Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) having a spatial resolution of 1° × 1° was used for the assessment of trends over the period 1960-2013 using modified Mann-Kendall test (MMK), which can discriminate the multi-decadal oscillatory variations from secular trends. The results show an increase in the annual average of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in 92 and 99% area of Pakistan respectively at 95% level of confidence. The annual temperature is increasing faster in southern high-temperature region compared to other parts of the country. The minimum temperature is rising faster (0.17-0.37 °C/decade) compared to maximum temperature (0.17-0.29 °C/decade) and therefore declination of diurnal temperature range (DTR) (- 0.15 to - 0.08 °C/decade) in some regions. The annual numbers of both hot and cold days are increasing in whole Pakistan except in the northern sub-Himalayan region. Heat waves are on the rise, especially in the hot Sindh plains and the Southern coastal region, while the cold waves are becoming lesser in the northern cold region. Obtained results contradict with the findings of previous studies on temperature trends, which indicate the need for reassessment of climatic trends in Pakistan using the MMK test to understand the anthropogenic impacts of climate change.

Soil and surface temperatures at the Viking landing sites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kieffer, H. H.

1976-01-01

The annual temperature range for the Martian surface at the Viking lander sites is computed on the basis of thermal parameters derived from observations made with the infrared thermal mappers. The Viking lander 1 (VL1) site has small annual variations in temperature, whereas the Viking lander 2 (VL2) site has large annual changes. With the Viking lander images used to estimate the rock component of the thermal emission, the daily temperature behavior of the soil alone is computed over the range of depths accessible to the lander; when the VL1 and VL2 sites were sampled, the daily temperature ranges at the top of the soil were 183 to 263 K and 183 to 268 K, respectively. The diurnal variation decreases with depth with an exponential scale of about 5 centimeters. The maximum temperature of the soil sampled from beneath rocks at the VL2 site is calculated to be 230 K. These temperature calculations should provide a reference for study of the active chemistry reported for the Martian soil.

Soil and surface temperatures at the viking landing sites.

PubMed

Kieffer, H H

1976-12-11

The annual temperature range for the martian surface at the Viking lander sites is computed on the basis of thermal parameters derived from observations made with the infrared thermal mappers. The Viking lander 1 (VL1) site has small annual variations in temperature, whereas the Viking lander 2 (VL2) site has large annual changes. With the Viking lander images used to estimate the rock component of the thermal emission, the daily temperature behavior of the soil alone is computed over the range of depths accessible to the lander; when the VL1 and VL2 sites were sampled, the daily temperature ranges at the top of the soil were 183 to 263 K and 183 to 268 K, respectively. The diurnal variation decreases with depth with an exponential scale of about 5 centimeters. The maximum temperature of the soil sampled from beneath rocks at the VL2 site is calculated to be 230 K. These temperature calculations should provide a reference for study of the active chemistry reported for the martian soil.

Citizen science: Plant and insect phenology with regards to degree-days

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Daily minimum and maximum temperatures collected from grower-collaborators were used to calculate site specific degree-days. Using our new understanding of Sparganothis phenology, plant phenology were examined relative to moth phenology, allowing us to predict moth development in parallel with plant...

Merging daily sea surface temperature data from multiple satellites using a Bayesian maximum entropy method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Shaolei; Yang, Xiaofeng; Dong, Di; Li, Ziwei

2015-12-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) is an important variable for understanding interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere. SST fusion is crucial for acquiring SST products of high spatial resolution and coverage. This study introduces a Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method for blending daily SSTs from multiple satellite sensors. A new spatiotemporal covariance model of an SST field is built to integrate not only single-day SSTs but also time-adjacent SSTs. In addition, AVHRR 30-year SST climatology data are introduced as soft data at the estimation points to improve the accuracy of blended results within the BME framework. The merged SSTs, with a spatial resolution of 4 km and a temporal resolution of 24 hours, are produced in the Western Pacific Ocean region to demonstrate and evaluate the proposed methodology. Comparisons with in situ drifting buoy observations show that the merged SSTs are accurate and the bias and root-mean-square errors for the comparison are 0.15°C and 0.72°C, respectively.

A new approach used to explore associations of current Ambrosia pollen levels with current and past meteorological elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matyasovszky, István; Makra, László; Csépe, Zoltán; Deák, Áron József; Pál-Molnár, Elemér; Fülöp, Andrea; Tusnády, Gábor

2015-09-01

The paper examines the sensitivity of daily airborne Ambrosia (ragweed) pollen levels of a current pollen season not only on daily values of meteorological variables during this season but also on the past meteorological conditions. The results obtained from a 19-year data set including daily ragweed pollen counts and ten daily meteorological variables are evaluated with special focus on the interactions between the phyto-physiological processes and the meteorological elements. Instead of a Pearson correlation measuring the strength of the linear relationship between two random variables, a generalised correlation that measures every kind of relationship between random vectors was used. These latter correlations between arrays of daily values of the ten meteorological elements and the array of daily ragweed pollen concentrations during the current pollen season were calculated. For the current pollen season, the six most important variables are two temperature variables (mean and minimum temperatures), two humidity variables (dew point depression and rainfall) and two variables characterising the mixing of the air (wind speed and the height of the planetary boundary layer). The six most important meteorological variables before the current pollen season contain four temperature variables (mean, maximum, minimum temperatures and soil temperature) and two variables that characterise large-scale weather patterns (sea level pressure and the height of the planetary boundary layer). Key periods of the past meteorological variables before the current pollen season have been identified. The importance of this kind of analysis is that a knowledge of the past meteorological conditions may contribute to a better prediction of the upcoming pollen season.

A new approach used to explore associations of current Ambrosia pollen levels with current and past meteorological elements.

PubMed

Matyasovszky, István; Makra, László; Csépe, Zoltán; Deák, Áron József; Pál-Molnár, Elemér; Fülöp, Andrea; Tusnády, Gábor

2015-09-01

The paper examines the sensitivity of daily airborne Ambrosia (ragweed) pollen levels of a current pollen season not only on daily values of meteorological variables during this season but also on the past meteorological conditions. The results obtained from a 19-year data set including daily ragweed pollen counts and ten daily meteorological variables are evaluated with special focus on the interactions between the phyto-physiological processes and the meteorological elements. Instead of a Pearson correlation measuring the strength of the linear relationship between two random variables, a generalised correlation that measures every kind of relationship between random vectors was used. These latter correlations between arrays of daily values of the ten meteorological elements and the array of daily ragweed pollen concentrations during the current pollen season were calculated. For the current pollen season, the six most important variables are two temperature variables (mean and minimum temperatures), two humidity variables (dew point depression and rainfall) and two variables characterising the mixing of the air (wind speed and the height of the planetary boundary layer). The six most important meteorological variables before the current pollen season contain four temperature variables (mean, maximum, minimum temperatures and soil temperature) and two variables that characterise large-scale weather patterns (sea level pressure and the height of the planetary boundary layer). Key periods of the past meteorological variables before the current pollen season have been identified. The importance of this kind of analysis is that a knowledge of the past meteorological conditions may contribute to a better prediction of the upcoming pollen season.

Vegetation management with fire modifies peatland soil thermal regime.

PubMed

Brown, Lee E; Palmer, Sheila M; Johnston, Kerrylyn; Holden, Joseph

2015-05-01

Vegetation removal with fire can alter the thermal regime of the land surface, leading to significant changes in biogeochemistry (e.g. carbon cycling) and soil hydrology. In the UK, large expanses of carbon-rich upland environments are managed to encourage increased abundance of red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scotica) by rotational burning of shrub vegetation. To date, though, there has not been any consideration of whether prescribed vegetation burning on peatlands modifies the thermal regime of the soil mass in the years after fire. In this study thermal regime was monitored across 12 burned peatland soil plots over an 18-month period, with the aim of (i) quantifying thermal dynamics between burned plots of different ages (from <2 to 15 + years post burning), and (ii) developing statistical models to determine the magnitude of thermal change caused by vegetation management. Compared to plots burned 15 + years previously, plots recently burned (<2-4 years) showed higher mean, maximum and range of soil temperatures, and lower minima. Statistical models (generalised least square regression) were developed to predict daily mean and maximum soil temperature in plots burned 15 + years prior to the study. These models were then applied to predict temperatures of plots burned 2, 4 and 7 years previously, with significant deviations from predicted temperatures illustrating the magnitude of burn management effects. Temperatures measured in soil plots burned <2 years previously showed significant statistical disturbances from model predictions, reaching +6.2 °C for daily mean temperatures and +19.6 °C for daily maxima. Soil temperatures in plots burnt 7 years previously were most similar to plots burned 15 + years ago indicating the potential for soil temperatures to recover as vegetation regrows. Our findings that prescribed peatland vegetation burning alters soil thermal regime should provide an impetus for further research to understand the consequences of thermal regime change for carbon processing and release, and hydrological processes, in these peatlands. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Change in mean temperature as a predictor of extreme temperature change in the Asia-Pacific region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffiths, G. M.; Chambers, L. E.; Haylock, M. R.; Manton, M. J.; Nicholls, N.; Baek, H.-J.; Choi, Y.; della-Marta, P. M.; Gosai, A.; Iga, N.; Lata, R.; Laurent, V.; Maitrepierre, L.; Nakamigawa, H.; Ouprasitwong, N.; Solofa, D.; Tahani, L.; Thuy, D. T.; Tibig, L.; Trewin, B.; Vediapan, K.; Zhai, P.

2005-08-01

Trends (1961-2003) in daily maximum and minimum temperatures, extremes and variance were found to be spatially coherent across the Asia-Pacific region. The majority of stations exhibited significant trends: increases in mean maximum and mean minimum temperature, decreases in cold nights and cool days, and increases in warm nights. No station showed a significant increase in cold days or cold nights, but a few sites showed significant decreases in hot days and warm nights. Significant decreases were observed in both maximum and minimum temperature standard deviation in China, Korea and some stations in Japan (probably reflecting urbanization effects), but also for some Thailand and coastal Australian sites. The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) region between Fiji and the Solomon Islands showed a significant increase in maximum temperature variability.Correlations between mean temperature and the frequency of extreme temperatures were strongest in the tropical Pacific Ocean from French Polynesia to Papua New Guinea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and southern Japan. Correlations were weaker at continental or higher latitude locations, which may partly reflect urbanization.For non-urban stations, the dominant distribution change for both maximum and minimum temperature involved a change in the mean, impacting on one or both extremes, with no change in standard deviation. This occurred from French Polynesia to Papua New Guinea (except for maximum temperature changes near the SPCZ), in Malaysia, the Philippines, and several outlying Japanese islands. For urbanized stations the dominant change was a change in the mean and variance, impacting on one or both extremes. This result was particularly evident for minimum temperature.The results presented here, for non-urban tropical and maritime locations in the Asia-Pacific region, support the hypothesis that changes in mean temperature may be used to predict changes in extreme temperatures. At urbanized or higher latitude locations, changes in variance should be incorporated.

Change in Unusually Hot and Cold Temperatures in the Contiguous 48 States, 1948-2015

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This map shows trends in unusually hot and cold temperatures at individual weather stations that have operated consistently since 1948. In this case, the term ??unusually hot?? refers to a daily maximum temperature that is hotter than the 95th percentile temperature during the 1948??2015 period. Thus, the maximum temperature on a particular day at a particular station would be considered ??unusually hot?? if it falls within the warmest 5 percent of measurements at that station during the 1948??2015 period. The map shows changes in the total number of days per year that were hotter than the 95th percentile. Red upward-pointing symbols show where these unusually hot days are becoming more common. Blue downward-pointing symbols show where unusually hot days are becoming less common. For more information: www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators

Reduced Urban Heat Island intensity under warmer conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, Anna A.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Zaitchik, Ben F.

2018-06-01

The Urban Heat Island (UHI), the tendency for urban areas to be hotter than rural regions, represents a significant health concern in summer as urban populations are exposed to elevated temperatures. A number of studies suggest that the UHI increases during warmer conditions, however there has been no investigation of this for a large ensemble of cities. Here we compare urban and rural temperatures in 54 US cities for 2000–2015 and show that the intensity of the Urban Heat Island, measured here as the differences in daily-minimum or daily-maximum temperatures between urban and rural stations or ΔT, in fact tends to decrease with increasing temperature in most cities (38/54). This holds when investigating daily variability, heat extremes, and variability across climate zones and is primarily driven by changes in rural areas. We relate this change to large-scale or synoptic weather conditions, and find that the lowest ΔT nights occur during moist weather conditions. We also find that warming cities have not experienced an increasing Urban Heat Island effect.

A Method for Estimating Missing Hourly Temperatures Using Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperatures

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-08-01

work documented by USAFETAC/PR-90/006, S/urt-Termn Hourl ’y Iernpcrature Interlyolaion, by Mal Wvalter F . Miller, December 1990. In his study, Miller...temperatures for the missing hours and concluded that the best model %as one developed by Hoogenboom and [luck (1986). The Hoogcnboom/Huck model uses a...mean of the error estimate, was determined from the following equation: - 7)) BIAS = 1 N", f (14) where the difference between the observed hourly

Projections of Future Summer Weather in Seoul and Their Impacts on Urban Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S. O.; Kim, J. H.; Yun, J. I.

2015-12-01

Climate departure from the past variability was projected to start in 2042 for Seoul. In order to understand the implication of climate departure in Seoul for urban agriculture, we evaluated the daily temperature for the June-September period from 2041 to 2070, which were projected by the RCP8.5 climate scenario. These data were analyzed with respect to climate extremes and their effects on growth of hot pepper (Capsicum annuum), one of the major crops in urban farming. The mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures in 2041-2070 approached to the 90th percentile in the past 30 years (1951- 1980). However, the frequency of extreme events such as heat waves and tropical nights appeared to exceed the past variability. While the departure of mean temperature might begin in or after 2040, the climate departure in the sense of extreme weather events seems already in progress. When the climate scenario data were applied to the growth and development of hot pepper, the departures of both planting date and harvest date are expected to follow those of temperature. However, the maximum duration for hot pepper cultivation, which is the number of days between the first planting and the last harvest, seems to have already deviated from the past variability.

Attribution of the United States “warming hole”: Aerosol indirect effect andprecipitable water vapor

EPA Science Inventory

Aerosols can influence the climate indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and /or ice nuclei, thereby modifying cloud optical properties. Observations show a striking cooling trend in summertime daily maximum temperature (T_max) in the central and...

Evaluation of extreme temperature events in northern Spain based on process control charts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villeta, M.; Valencia, J. L.; Saá, A.; Tarquis, A. M.

2018-02-01

Extreme climate events have recently attracted the attention of a growing number of researchers because these events impose a large cost on agriculture and associated insurance planning. This study focuses on extreme temperature events and proposes a new method for their evaluation based on statistical process control tools, which are unusual in climate studies. A series of minimum and maximum daily temperatures for 12 geographical areas of a Spanish region between 1931 and 2009 were evaluated by applying statistical process control charts to statistically test whether evidence existed for an increase or a decrease of extreme temperature events. Specification limits were determined for each geographical area and used to define four types of extreme anomalies: lower and upper extremes for the minimum and maximum anomalies. A new binomial Markov extended process that considers the autocorrelation between extreme temperature events was generated for each geographical area and extreme anomaly type to establish the attribute control charts for the annual fraction of extreme days and to monitor the occurrence of annual extreme days. This method was used to assess the significance of changes and trends of extreme temperature events in the analysed region. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of an attribute control chart for evaluating extreme temperature events. For example, the evaluation of extreme maximum temperature events using the proposed statistical process control charts was consistent with the evidence of an increase in maximum temperatures during the last decades of the last century.

Detection of the relationship between peak temperature and extreme precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Y.; Liu, J.; Zhiyong, Y.

2017-12-01

Under the background of climate change and human activities, the characteristics and pattern of precipitation have changed significantly in many regions. As the political and cultural center of China, the structure and character of precipitation in Jingjinji District has varied dramatically in recent years. In this paper, the daily precipitation data throughout the period 1960-2013 are selected for analyzing the spatial-temporal variability of precipitation. The results indicate that the frequency and intensity of precipitation presents an increasing trend. Based on the precipitation data, the maximum, minimum and mean precipitation in different temporal and spatial scales is calculated respectively. The temporal and spatial variation of temperature is obtained by using statistical methods. The relationship between temperature and precipitation in different range is analyzed. The curve relates daily precipitation extremes with local temperatures has a peak structure, increasing at the low-medium range of temperature variations but decreasing at high temperatures. The relationship between extreme precipitation is stronger in downtown than that in suburbs.

The Impact of Rising Temperatures on Aircraft Takeoff Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coffel, E.; Horton, R. M.; Thompson, T. R.

2017-12-01

Steadily rising mean and extreme temperatures as a result of climate change will likely impact the air transportation system over the coming decades. As air temperatures rise at constant pressure, air density declines, resulting in less lift generation by an aircraft wing at a given airspeed and potentially imposing a weight restriction on departing aircraft. This study presents a general model to project future weight restrictions across a fleet of aircraft with different takeoff weights operating at a variety of airports. We construct performance models for five common commercial aircraft and 19 major airports around the world and use projections of daily temperatures from the CMIP5 model suite under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios to calculate required hourly weight restriction. We find that on average, 10-30% of annual flights departing at the time of daily maximum temperature may require some weight restriction below their maximum takeoff weights, with mean restrictions ranging from 0.5 to 4% of total aircraft payload and fuel capacity by mid- to late century. Both mid-sized and large aircraft are affected, and airports with short runways and high tempera- tures, or those at high elevations, will see the largest impacts. Our results suggest that weight restriction may impose a non-trivial cost on airlines and impact aviation operations around the world and that adaptation may be required in aircraft design, airline schedules, and/or runway lengths.

Decadal trend of precipitation and temperature patterns and impacts on snow-related variables in a semiarid region, Sierra Nevada, Spain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

José Pérez-Palazón, María; Pimentel, Rafael; Herrero, Javier; José Polo, María

2016-04-01

In the current context of global change, mountainous areas constitute singular locations in which these changes can be traced. Early detection of significant shifts of snow state variables in semiarid regions can help assess climate variability impacts and future snow dynamics in northern latitudes. The Sierra Nevada mountain range, in southern Spain, is a representative example of snow areas in Mediterranean-climate regions and both monitoring and modelling efforts have been performed to assess this variability and its significant scales. This work presents a decadal trend analysis throughout the 50-yr period 1960-2010 performed on some snow-related variables over Sierra Nevada, in Spain, which is included in the global climate change observatories network around the world. The study area comprises 4583 km2 distributed throughout the five head basins influenced by these mountains, with altitude values ranging from 140 to 3479 m.a.s.l., just 40 km from the Mediterranean coastline. Meteorological variables obtained from 44 weather stations from the National Meteorological Agency were studied and further used as input to the distributed hydrological model WiMMed (Polo et al., 2010), operational at the study area, to obtain selected snow variables. Decadal trends were obtained, together with their statistical significance, over the following variables, averaged over the whole study area: (1) annual precipitation; (2) annual snowfall; annual (3) mean, (4) maximum and (5) minimum daily temperature; annual (6) mean and (7) maximum daily fraction of snow covered areas; (8) annual number of days with snow cover; (9) mean and (10) maximum daily snow water equivalent; (11) annual number of extreme precipitation events; and (12) mean intensity of the annual extreme precipitation events. These variables were also studied over each of the five regions associated to each basin in the range. Globally decreasing decadal trends were obtained for all the meteorological variables, with the exception of the average annual mean and maximum daily temperature. In the case of the snow-related variables, no significant trends are observed at this time scale; nonetheless, a global decreasing rate is predominant in most of the variables. The torrential events are more frequent in the last decades of the study period, with an apparently increasing associated dispersion. This study constitutes a first sound analysis of the long-term observed trends of the snow regime in this area under the context of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation regimes. The results highlight the complexity of non-linearity in environmental processes in Mediterranean regions, and point out to a significant shift in the precipitation and temperature regime, and thus on the snow-affected hydrological variables in the study area.

Changes of the time-varying percentiles of daily extreme temperature in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bin; Chen, Fang; Xu, Feng; Wang, Xinrui

2017-11-01

Identifying the air temperature frequency distributions and evaluating the trends in time-varying percentiles are very important for climate change studies. In order to get a better understanding of the recent temporal and spatial pattern of the temperature changes in China, we have calculated the trends in temporal-varying percentiles of the daily extreme air temperature firstly. Then we divide all the stations to get the spatial patterns for the percentile trends using the average linkage cluster analysis method. To make a comparison, the shifts of trends percentile frequency distribution from 1961-1985 to 1986-2010 are also examined. Important results in three aspects have been achieved: (1) In terms of the trends in temporal-varying percentiles of the daily extreme air temperature, the most intense warming for daily maximum air temperature (Tmax) was detected in the upper percentiles with a significant increasing tendency magnitude (>2.5 °C/50year), and the greatest warming for daily minimum air temperature (Tmin) occurred with very strong trends exceeding 4 °C/50year. (2) The relative coherent spatial patterns for the percentile trends were found, and stations for the whole country had been divided into three clusters. The three primary clusters were distributed regularly to some extent from north to south, indicating the possible large influence of the latitude. (3) The most significant shifts of trends percentile frequency distribution from 1961-1985 to 1986-2010 was found in Tmax. More than half part of the frequency distribution show negative trends less than -0.5 °C/50year in 1961-1985, while showing trends less than 2.5 °C/50year in 1986-2010.

Current and Projected Heat-Related Morbidity and Mortality in Rhode Island

PubMed Central

Kingsley, Samantha L.; Eliot, Melissa N.; Gold, Julia; Vanderslice, Robert R.; Wellenius, Gregory A.

2015-01-01

Background: Climate change is expected to cause increases in heat-related mortality, especially among the elderly and very young. However, additional studies are needed to clarify the effects of heat on morbidity across all age groups and across a wider range of temperatures. Objectives: We aimed to estimate the impact of current and projected future temperatures on morbidity and mortality in Rhode Island. Methods: We used Poisson regression models to estimate the association between daily maximum temperature and rates of all-cause and heat-related emergency department (ED) admissions and all-cause mortality. We then used downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5; a standardized set of climate change model simulations) projections to estimate the excess morbidity and mortality that would be observed if this population were exposed to the temperatures projected for 2046–2053 and 2092–2099 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP): RCP 8.5 and 4.5. Results: Between 2005 and 2012, an increase in maximum daily temperature from 75 to 85°F was associated with 1.3% and 23.9% higher rates of all-cause and heat-related ED visits, respectively. The corresponding effect estimate for all-cause mortality from 1999 through 2011 was 4.0%. The association with all-cause ED admissions was strongest for those < 18 or ≥ 65 years of age, whereas the association with heat-related ED admissions was most pronounced among 18- to 64-year-olds. If this Rhode Island population were exposed to temperatures projected under RCP 8.5 for 2092–2099, we estimate that there would be 1.2% (range, 0.6–1.6%) and 24.4% (range, 6.9–41.8%) more all-cause and heat-related ED admissions, respectively, and 1.6% (range, 0.8–2.1%) more deaths annually between April and October. Conclusions: With all other factors held constant, our findings suggest that the current population of Rhode Island would experience substantially higher morbidity and mortality if maximum daily temperatures increase further as projected. Citation: Kingsley SL, Eliot MN, Gold J, Vanderslice RR, Wellenius GA. 2016. Current and projected heat-related morbidity and mortality in Rhode Island. Environ Health Perspect 124:460–467; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408826 PMID:26251954

Exploring the spatio-temporal relationship between two key aeroallergens and meteorological variables in the United Kingdom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khwarahm, Nabaz; Dash, Jadunandan; Atkinson, Peter M.; Newnham, R. M.; Skjøth, C. A.; Adams-Groom, B.; Caulton, Eric; Head, K.

2014-05-01

Constructing accurate predictive models for grass and birch pollen in the air, the two most important aeroallergens, for areas with variable climate conditions such as the United Kingdom, require better understanding of the relationships between pollen count in the air and meteorological variables. Variations in daily birch and grass pollen counts and their relationship with daily meteorological variables were investigated for nine pollen monitoring sites for the period 2000-2010 in the United Kingdom. An active pollen count sampling method was employed at each of the monitoring stations to sample pollen from the atmosphere. The mechanism of this method is based on the volumetric spore traps of Hirst design (Hirst in Ann Appl Biol 39(2):257-265, 1952). The pollen season (start date, finish date) for grass and birch were determined using a first derivative method. Meteorological variables such as daily rainfall; maximum, minimum and average temperatures; cumulative sum of Sunshine duration; wind speed; and relative humidity were related to the grass and birch pollen counts for the pre-peak, post peak and the entire pollen season. The meteorological variables were correlated with the pollen count data for the following temporal supports: same-day, 1-day prior, 1-day mean prior, 3-day mean prior, 7-day mean prior. The direction of influence (positive/negative) of meteorological variables on pollen count varied for birch and grass, and also varied when the pollen season was treated as a whole season, or was segmented into the pre-peak and post-peak seasons. Maximum temperature, sunshine duration and rainfall were the most important variables influencing the count of grass pollen in the atmosphere. Both maximum temperature (pre-peak) and sunshine produced a strong positive correlation, and rain produced a strong negative correlation with grass pollen count in the air. Similarly, average temperature, wind speed and rainfall were the most important variables influencing the count of birch pollen in the air. Both wind speed and rain produced a negative correlation with birch pollen count in the air and average temperature produced a positive correlation.

Thermal tolerances of fishes occupying groundwater and surface-water dominated streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farless, Nicole; Brewer, Shannon K.

2017-01-01

A thermal tolerance study mimicking different stream environments could improve our ecological understanding of how increasing water temperatures affect stream ectotherms and improve our ability to predict organism responses based on river classification schemes. Our objective was to compare the thermal tolerances of stream fishes of different habitat guilds among 3 exposure periods: critical thermal maximum (CTmax, increase of 2°C/h until loss of equilibrium [LOE] and death [D]), and 2 longer-term treatments (net daily increase of 1°C) that mimicked spring-fed (SF; 4°C daily increase) and non-spring-fed (NSF; 8°C daily increase) conditions. Fishes in the pelagic habitat guild had a 1°C higher average CTmax than benthic fishes. Thermal responses of species depended on exposure period with higher and increased variation in tolerances associated with the SF and NSF exposure periods. Logperch, Orangebelly Darter, Orangethroat Darter, and Southern Redbelly Dace were more sensitive to thermal increases regardless of SF or NSF treatment than were the 3 remaining species (Brook Silverside, Central Stoneroller, and Redspot Chub), which represented average thermal responses among the species tested. The 3 species that had a higher thermal response to CTmax-D (lethal endpoint of death) also were able to increase their tolerances more than other species in both SF and NSF treatments. Our data indicate finer guild designations may be useful for predicting thermal-response patterns. A diel thermal refuge increases the thermal responses of ectotherms to daily maxima, but the patterns across our SF and NSF treatments were similar suggesting minimum refuge temperatures may be more important than maximums. Nonetheless, stream temperature cooling over a 24-h period is important to ectotherm thermal tolerances, a result suggesting that sources of cooler water to streams might benefit from protection.

Changes in cause-specific mortality during heat waves in central Spain, 1975-2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miron, Isidro Juan; Linares, Cristina; Montero, Juan Carlos; Criado-Alvarez, Juan Jose; Díaz, Julio

2015-09-01

The relationship between heat waves and mortality has been widely described, but there are few studies using long daily data on specific-cause mortality. This study is undertaken in central Spain and analysing natural causes, circulatory and respiratory causes of mortality from 1975 to 2008. Time-series analysis was performed using ARIMA models, including data on specific-cause mortality and maximum and mean daily temperature and mean daily air pressure. The length of heat waves and their chronological number were analysed. Data were stratified in three decadal stages: 1975-1985, 1986-1996 and 1997-2008. Heat-related mortality was triggered by a threshold temperature of 37 °C. For each degree that the daily maximum temperature exceeded 37 °C, the percentage increase in mortality due to circulatory causes was 19.3 % (17.3-21.3) in 1975-1985, 30.3 % (28.3-32.3) in 1986-1996 and 7.3 % (6.2-8.4) in 1997-2008. The increase in respiratory cause ranged from 12.4 % (7.8-17.0) in the first period, to 16.3 % (14.1-18.4) in the second and 13.7 % (11.5-15.9) in the last. Each day of heat-wave duration explained 5.3 % (2.6-8.0) increase in respiratory mortality in the first period and 2.3 % (1.6-3.0) in the last. Decadal scale differences exist for specific-causes mortality induced by extreme heat. The impact on heat-related mortality by natural and circulatory causes increases between the first and the second period and falls significantly in the last. For respiratory causes, the increase is no reduced in the last period. These results are of particular importance for the estimation of future impacts of climate change on health.

40 CFR 63.1207 - What are the performance testing requirements?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... operating conditions that are most likely to reflect daily maximum operating variability, similar to a... operating variability, similar to a dioxin/furan compliance test; (B) You have not changed the design or... document the temperature location measurement in the comprehensive performance test plan, as required by...

Coupling diffusion and maximum entropy models to estimate thermal inertia

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Thermal inertia is a physical property of soil at the land surface related to water content. We have developed a method for estimating soil thermal inertia using two daily measurements of surface temperature, to capture the diurnal range, and diurnal time series of net radiation and specific humidi...

Climate trends of the North American prairie pothole region 1906-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Millett, B.; Johnson, W.C.; Guntenspergen, G.

2009-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is unique to North America. Its millions of wetlands and abundant ecosystem goods and services are highly sensitive to wide variations of temperature and precipitation in time and space characteristic of a strongly continental climate. Precipitation and temperature gradients across the PPR are orthogonal to each other. Precipitation nearly triples from west to east from approximately 300 mm/year to 900 mm/year, while mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 1°C in the north to nearly 10°C in the south. Twentieth-century weather records for 18 PPR weather stations representing 6 ecoregions revealed several trends. The climate generally has been getting warmer and wetter and the diurnal temperature range has decreased. Minimum daily temperatures warmed by 1.0°C, while maximum daily temperatures cooled by 0.15°C. Minimum temperature warmed more in winter than in summer, while maximum temperature cooled in summer and warmed in winter. Average annual precipitation increased by 49 mm or 9%. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) trends reflected increasing moisture availability for most weather stations; however, several stations in the western Canadian Prairies recorded effectively drier conditions. The east-west moisture gradient steepened during the twentieth century with stations in the west becoming drier and stations in the east becoming wetter. If the moisture gradient continues to steepen, the area of productive wetland ecosystems will shrink. Consequences for wetlands would be especially severe if the future climate does not provide supplemental moisture to offset higher evaporative demand.

Relationships between water temperatures and upstream migration, cold water refuge use, and spawning of adult bull trout from the Lostine River, Oregon, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howell, P.J.; Dunham, J.B.; Sankovich, P.M.

2010-01-01

Understanding thermal habitat use by migratory fish has been limited by difficulties in matching fish locations with water temperatures. To describe spatial and temporal patterns of thermal habitat use by migratory adult bull trout, Salvelinus confluentus, that spawn in the Lostine River, Oregon, we employed a combination of archival temperature tags, radio tags, and thermographs. We also compared temperatures of the tagged fish to ambient water temperatures to determine if the fish were using thermal refuges. The timing and temperatures at which fish moved upstream from overwintering areas to spawning locations varied considerably among individuals. The annual maximum 7-day average daily maximum (7DADM) temperatures of tagged fish were 16-18 ??C and potentially as high as 21 ??C. Maximum 7DADM ambient water temperatures within the range of tagged fish during summer were 18-25 ??C. However, there was no evidence of the tagged fish using localized cold water refuges. Tagged fish appeared to spawn at 7DADM temperatures of 7-14 ??C. Maximum 7DADM temperatures of tagged fish and ambient temperatures at the onset of the spawning period in late August were 11-18 ??C. Water temperatures in most of the upper Lostine River used for spawning and rearing appear to be largely natural since there has been little development, whereas downstream reaches used by migratory bull trout are heavily diverted for irrigation. Although the population effects of these temperatures are unknown, summer temperatures and the higher temperatures observed for spawning fish appear to be at or above the upper range of suitability reported for the species. Published 2009. This article is a US Governmentwork and is in the public domain in the USA.

Climate Change and Simulation of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: A Case Study of Mashhad, Iran.

PubMed

Baaghideh, Mohammad; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh

2017-03-01

Weather and climate play a significant role in human health. We are accustomed to affects the weather conditions. By increasing or decreasing the environment temperature or change of seasons, some diseases become prevalent or remove. This study investigated the role of temperature in cardiovascular disease mortality of city of Mashhad in the current decade and its simulation in the future decades under conditions of climate change. Cardiovascular disease mortality data and the daily temperatures data were used during (2004-2013) period. First, the correlation between cardiovascular disease mortality and maximum and minimum temperatures were calculated then by using General Circulation Model, Emissions Scenarios, and temperature data were extracted for the next five decades and finally, mortality was simulated. There is a strong positive association between maximum temperature and mortality (r= 0.83, P -value<0.01), also observed a negative and weak but significant association between minimum temperatures and mortality. The results obtained from simulation show increased temperature in the next decades in Mashhad and a 1 °C increase in maximum temperature is associated with a 4.27% (95%CI: 0.91, 7.00) increase in Cardiovascular disease mortality. By increasing temperature and the number of hot days the cardiovascular disease mortality increases and these increases will be intensified in the future decades. Therefore, necessary preventive measures are required to mitigate temperature effects with greater attention to vulnerable group.

Spatial and temporal evolution of climatic factors and its impacts on potential evapotranspiration in Loess Plateau of Northern Shaanxi, China.

PubMed

Li, C; Wu, P T; Li, X L; Zhou, T W; Sun, S K; Wang, Y B; Luan, X B; Yu, X

2017-07-01

Agriculture is very sensitive to climate change, and correct forecasting of climate change is a great help to accurate allocation of irrigation water. The use of irrigation water is influenced by crop water demand and precipitation. Potential evapotranspiration (ET 0 ) is a measure of the ability of the atmosphere to remove water from the surface through the processes of evaporation and transpiration, assuming no control on water supply. It plays an important role in assessing crop water requirements, regional dry-wet conditions, and other factors of water resource management. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution processes and characteristics of major meteorological parameters at 10 stations in the Loess Plateau of northern Shaanxi (LPNS). By using the Mann-Kendall trend test with trend-free pre-whitening and the ArcGIS platform, the potential evapotranspiration of each station was quantified by using the Penman-Monteith equation, and the effects of climatic factors on potential evapotranspiration were assessed by analyzing the contribution rate and sensitivity of the climatic factors. The results showed that the climate in LPNS has become warmer and drier. In terms of the sensitivity of ET 0 to the variation of each climatic factor in LPNS, relative humidity (0.65) had the highest sensitivity, followed by daily maximum temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours, and daily minimum temperature (-0.05). In terms of the contribution rate of each factor to ET 0 , daily maximum temperature (5.16%) had the highest value, followed by daily minimum temperature, sunshine hours, relative humidity, and wind speed (1.14%). This study provides a reference for the management of agricultural water resources and for countermeasures to climate change. According to the climate change and the characteristics of the study area, farmers in the region should increase irrigation to guarantee crop water demand. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Neutral atmospheric models compatible with satellite orbital decay and incoherent scatter measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rohrbaugh, J. L.

1972-01-01

A correlation study was made of the variations of the exospheric temperature extrema with various combinations of the monthly mean and daily values of the 2800 MHz and Ca:2 solar indices. The phase and amplitude of the semi-annual component and the term dependent on Kp were found to remain almost the same for the maximum and minimum temperature. The term dependent on the 27 day component of the solar activity was found to be about four times as large for the diurnal maximum as for the minimum. Measurements at Arecibo have shown that temperature gradient changes at 125 km are consistent with the phase difference between the neutral temperature and density maxima. This is used to develop an empirical model which is compatible with both the satellite measurements and the available incoherent scatter measurements. A main feature of this model is that day length is included as a major model parameter.

Effect of climatological factors on respiratory syncytial virus epidemics

PubMed Central

NOYOLA, D. E.; MANDEVILLE, P. B.

2008-01-01

SUMMARY Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) presents as yearly epidemics in temperate climates. We analysed the association of atmospheric conditions to RSV epidemics in San Luis Potosí, S.L.P., Mexico. The weekly number of RSV detections between October 2002 and May 2006 were correlated to ambient temperature, barometric pressure, relative humidity, vapour tension, dew point, precipitation, and hours of light using time-series and regression analyses. Of the variation in RSV cases, 49·8% was explained by the study variables. Of the explained variation in RSV cases, 32·5% was explained by the study week and 17·3% was explained by meteorological variables (average daily temperature, maximum daily temperature, temperature at 08:00 hours, and relative humidity at 08:00 hours). We concluded that atmospheric conditions, particularly temperature, partly explain the year to year variability in RSV activity. Identification of additional factors that affect RSV seasonality may help develop a model to predict the onset of RSV epidemics. PMID:18177520

Advanced techniques for modeling avian nest survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinsmore, S.J.; White, Gary C.; Knopf, F.L.

2002-01-01

Estimation of avian nest survival has traditionally involved simple measures of apparent nest survival or Mayfield constant-nest-survival models. However, these methods do not allow researchers to build models that rigorously assess the importance of a wide range of biological factors that affect nest survival. Models that incorporate greater detail, such as temporal variation in nest survival and covariates representative of individual nests represent a substantial improvement over traditional estimation methods. In an attempt to improve nest survival estimation procedures, we introduce the nest survival model now available in the program MARK and demonstrate its use on a nesting study of Mountain Plovers (Charadrius montanus Townsend) in Montana, USA. We modeled the daily survival of Mountain Plover nests as a function of the sex of the incubating adult, nest age, year, linear and quadratic time trends, and two weather covariates (maximum daily temperature and daily precipitation) during a six-year study (1995–2000). We found no evidence for yearly differences or an effect of maximum daily temperature on the daily nest survival of Mountain Plovers. Survival rates of nests tended by female and male plovers differed (female rate = 0.33; male rate = 0.49). The estimate of the additive effect for males on nest survival rate was 0.37 (95% confidence limits were 0.03, 0.71) on a logit scale. Daily survival rates of nests increased with nest age; the estimate of daily nest-age change in survival in the best model was 0.06 (95% confidence limits were 0.04, 0.09) on a logit scale. Daily precipitation decreased the probability that the nest would survive to the next day; the estimate of the additive effect of daily precipitation on the nest survival rate was −1.08 (95% confidence limits were −2.12, −0.13) on a logit scale. Our approach to modeling daily nest-survival rates allowed several biological factors of interest to be easily included in nest survival models and allowed us to generate more biologically meaningful estimates of nest survival.

Mainstem Clearwater River Study: Assessment for Salmonid Spawning, Incubation, and Rearing.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Conner, William P.

1989-01-01

Chinook salmon reproduced naturally in the Clearwater River until damming of the lower mainstem in 1927 impeded upstream spawning migrations and decimated the populations. Removal of the Washington Water Power Dam in 1973 reopened upriver passage. This study was initiated to determine the feasibility of re-introducing chinook salmon into the lower mainstem Clearwater River based on the temperature and flow regimes, water quality, substrate, and invertebrate production since the completion of Dworshak Dam in 1972. Temperature data obtained from the United States Geological Survey gaging stations at Peck and Spalding, Idaho, were used to calculate average minimum and maximum watermore » temperature on a daily, monthly and yearly basis. The coldest and warmest (absolute minimum and maximum) temperatures that have occurred in the past 15 years were also identified. Our analysis indicates that average lower mainstem Clearwater River water temperatures are suitable for all life stages of chinook salmon, and also for steelhead trout rearing. In some years absolute maximum water temperatures in late summer may postpone adult staging and spawning. Absolute minimum temperatures have been recorded that could decrease overwinter survival of summer chinook juveniles and fall chinook eggs depending on the quality of winter hiding cover and the prevalence of intra-gravel freezing in the lower mainstem Clearwater River.« less

Compensation for environmental change by complementary shifts of thermal sensitivity and thermoregulatory behaviour in an ectotherm.

PubMed

Glanville, E J; Seebacher, F

2006-12-01

Thermoregulating animals are thought to have evolved a preferred body temperature at which thermally sensitive performance is optimised. Even during thermoregulation, however, many animals experience pronounced variability in body temperature, and may regulate to different body temperatures depending on environmental conditions. Here we test the hypothesis that there is a trade-off between regulating to lower body temperatures in cooler conditions and locomotory and metabolic performance. Animals (estuarine crocodiles, Crocodylus porosus) acclimated to cold (N=8) conditions had significantly lower maximum and mean daily body temperatures after 33 days than warm-acclimated animals (N=9), despite performing characteristic thermoregulatory behaviours. Concomitant with behavioural changes, maximum sustained swimming speed (U(crit)) shifted to the respective mean body temperatures during acclimation (cold=20 degrees C, warm=29 degrees C), but there was no difference in the maxima between acclimation groups. Mitochondrial oxygen consumption changed significantly during acclimation, and maximum respiratory control ratios coincided with mean body temperatures in liver, muscle and heart tissues. There were significant changes in the activities of regulatory metabolic enzymes (lactate dehydrogenase, citrate synthase, cytochrome c oxidase) and these were tissue specific. The extraordinary shift in behaviour and locomotory and metabolic performance shows that within individuals, behaviour and physiology covary to maximise performance in different environments.

Increases in external cause mortality due to high and low temperatures: evidence from northeastern Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orru, Hans; Åström, Daniel Oudin

2017-05-01

The relationship between temperature and mortality is well established but has seldom been investigated in terms of external causes. In some Eastern European countries, external cause mortality is substantial. Deaths owing to external causes are the third largest cause of mortality in Estonia, after cardiovascular disease and cancer. Death rates owing to external causes may reflect behavioural changes among a population. The aim for the current study was to investigate if there is any association between temperature and external cause mortality, in Estonia. We collected daily information on deaths from external causes (ICD-10 diagnosis codes V00-Y99) and maximum temperatures over the period 1997-2013. The relationship between daily maximum temperature and mortality was investigated using Poisson regression, combined with a distributed lag non-linear model considering lag times of up to 10 days. We found significantly higher mortality owing to external causes on hot (the same and previous day) and cold days (with a lag of 1-3 days). The cumulative relative risks for heat (an increase in temperature from the 75th to 99th percentile) were 1.24 (95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.34) and for cold (a decrease from the 25th to 1st percentile) 1.19 (1.03-1.38). Deaths due to external causes might reflect changes in behaviour among a population during periods of extreme hot and cold temperatures and should therefore be investigated further, because such deaths have a severe impact on public health, especially in Eastern Europe where external mortality rates are high.

A study of surface ozone variability over the Iberian Peninsula during the last fifty years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Fernández, M. I.; Gallego, M. C.; García, J. A.; Acero, F. J.

2011-02-01

There is good evidence for an increase in the global surface level of ozone in the past century. In this work we present an analysis of 18 surface ozone series over the Iberian Peninsula, considering the target values of ozone for the protection of human health and for the protection of vegetation, as well as the information and alert thresholds established by the current European Directive on ambient air quality and cleaner air for Europe (Directive 2008/50/EC). The results show that the stations located on the Cantabrian coast exceeded neither the target value for the protection of human health nor the target value for the protection of vegetation. The information threshold was exceeded in most of the stations, while the alert threshold was only exceeded in one. The seasonal and daily evolution of ozone concentrations were as expected. A trend analysis of three surface ozone concentration indices (monthly median and 98th percentile, and monthly maximum of the daily maximum 8-h mean) was performed both for the whole period of each station and for the common period from 2001 to 2007 for all the months of the year. It was noted that generally the south of the Iberian Peninsula presented increasing trends for the three indices, especially in the last six months of the year, and the north decreasing trends. Finally, a correlation analysis was performed between the daily maximum 8-h mean and both daily mean temperature and daily mean solar radiation for the whole and the common periods. For all stations, there was a significant positive association at a 5% significance level between the daily maximum 8-h mean and the two meteorological variables of up to approximately 0.5. The spatial distribution of these association values from 2001 to 2007 showed a positive northwest to southeast gradient over the Iberian Peninsula.

Dissolved oxygen fluctuations in karst spring flow and implications for endemic species: Barton Springs, Edwards aquifer, Texas, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mahler, Barbara J.; Bourgeais, Renan

2013-01-01

Karst aquifers and springs provide the dissolved oxygen critical for survival of endemic stygophiles worldwide, but little is known about fluctuations of dissolved oxygen concentrations (DO) and factors that control those concentrations. We investigated temporal variation in DO at Barton Springs, Austin, Texas, USA. During 2006–2012, DO fluctuated by as much as a factor of 2, and at some periods decreased to concentrations that adversely affect the Barton Springs salamander (Eurycea sorosum) (≤4.4 mg/L), a federally listed endangered species endemic to Barton Springs. DO was lowest (≤4.4 mg/L) when discharge was low (≤1 m3/s) and spring water temperature was >21 °C, although not at a maximum; the minimum DO recorded was 4.0 mg/L. Relatively low DO (3/s) and maximum T (22.2 °C). A four-segment linear regression model with daily data for discharge and spring water temperature as explanatory variables provided an excellent fit for mean daily DO (Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient for the validation period of 0.90). DO also fluctuated at short-term timescales in response to storms, and DO measured at 15-min intervals could be simulated with a combination of discharge, spring temperature, and specific conductance as explanatory variables. On the basis of the daily-data regression model, we hypothesize that more frequent low DO corresponding to salamander mortality could result from (i) lower discharge from Barton Springs resulting from increased groundwater withdrawals or decreased recharge as a result of climate change, and (or) (ii) higher groundwater temperature as a result of climate change.

Rice yields in tropical/subtropical Asia exhibit large but opposing sensitivities to minimum and maximum temperatures

PubMed Central

Welch, Jarrod R.; Vincent, Jeffrey R.; Auffhammer, Maximilian; Moya, Piedad F.; Dobermann, Achim; Dawe, David

2010-01-01

Data from farmer-managed fields have not been used previously to disentangle the impacts of daily minimum and maximum temperatures and solar radiation on rice yields in tropical/subtropical Asia. We used a multiple regression model to analyze data from 227 intensively managed irrigated rice farms in six important rice-producing countries. The farm-level detail, observed over multiple growing seasons, enabled us to construct farm-specific weather variables, control for unobserved factors that either were unique to each farm but did not vary over time or were common to all farms at a given site but varied by season and year, and obtain more precise estimates by including farm- and site-specific economic variables. Temperature and radiation had statistically significant impacts during both the vegetative and ripening phases of the rice plant. Higher minimum temperature reduced yield, whereas higher maximum temperature raised it; radiation impact varied by growth phase. Combined, these effects imply that yield at most sites would have grown more rapidly during the high-yielding season but less rapidly during the low-yielding season if observed temperature and radiation trends at the end of the 20th century had not occurred, with temperature trends being more influential. Looking ahead, they imply a net negative impact on yield from moderate warming in coming decades. Beyond that, the impact would likely become more negative, because prior research indicates that the impact of maximum temperature becomes negative at higher levels. Diurnal temperature variation must be considered when investigating the impacts of climate change on irrigated rice in Asia. PMID:20696908

Development of a winter wheat adjustable crop calendar model. [Colorado, Idaho, Oklahoma, Montana, Kansas, Missouri, North Dakota and Texas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, J. R. (Principal Investigator)

1979-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Least squares techniques were applied for parameter estimation of functions to predict winter wheat phenological stage with daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, daylength, and precipitation as independent variables. After parameter estimation, tests were conducted using independent data. It may generally be concluded that exponential functions have little advantage over polynomials. Precipitation was not found to significantly affect the fits. The Robertson triquadratic form, in general use for spring wheat, yielded good results, but special techniques and care are required. In most instances, equations with nonlinear effects were found to yield erratic results when utilized with averaged daily environmental values as independent variables.

Secular Trend of Surface Temperature at an Elevated Observatory in the Pyrenees.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bücher, A.; Dessens, J.

1991-08-01

Surface temperature was measured at the Pic du Midi de Bigorre, 2862 m MSL, from the foundation of the Observatory in 1878 until the closing of the meteorological station in 1984. After testing the homogeneity of the series with the annual mean temperatures in western Europe and in southwestern France, the period 1882-1970 was retained for trend analysis.The mean annual temperature increased 0.83°C during the 89-yr period. This increase is the sum of a very significant increase in the daily minimum temperature (+ 2.11°C) and a decrease in the maximum temperature ( 0.45°C). In consequence, the most dramatic change in the temperature regime was the difference between maximum and minimum; this decreased from 8.05°C in 1882 to 5.49°C in 1970. A mean increase is observed in all seasons, but, as for western Europe, it is stronger in spring and fall than in winter and summer.Analysis of cloudiness data for the same period shows a 15% increase in annual mean cloudiness and also significant year-to-year correlations between cloudiness and the maximum and minimum temperature. In consequence, the change in the temperature regime observed at the Pic du Midi since the end of last century is most probably the result of a climatic change involving an increase in cloud cover and, maybe, an increasing greenhouse effect.

User's guide to the weather model: a component of the western spruce budworm modeling system.

Treesearch

W. P. Kemp; N. L. Crookston; P. W. Thomas

1989-01-01

A stochastic model useful in simulating daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation developed by Bruhn and others has been adapted for use in the western spruce budworm modeling system. This document describes how to use the weather model and illustrates some aspects of its behavior.

40 CFR 62.14455 - What if my HMIWI goes outside of a parameter limit?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... temperature (3-hour rolling average) simultaneously The PM, CO, and dioxin/furan emission limits. (c) Except..., daily average for batch HMIWI), and below the minimum dioxin/furan sorbent flow rate (3-hour rolling average) simultaneously The dioxin/furan emission limit. (3) Operates above the maximum charge rate (3...

Applications of a New England stream temperature model to evaluate distribution of thermal regimes and sensitivity to change in riparian condition

EPA Science Inventory

We have applied a statistical stream network (SSN) model to predict stream thermal metrics (summer monthly medians, growing season maximum magnitude and timing, and daily rates of change) across New England nontidal streams and rivers, excluding northern Maine watersheds that ext...

Average Revisited in Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watson, Jane; Chick, Helen

2012-01-01

This paper analyses the responses of 247 middle school students to items requiring the concept of average in three different contexts: a city's weather reported in maximum daily temperature, the number of children in a family, and the price of houses. The mixed but overall disappointing performance on the six items in the three contexts indicates…

Climate Response of Tree Radial Growth at Different Timescales in the Qinling Mountains.

PubMed

Sun, Changfeng; Liu, Yu

2016-01-01

The analysis of the tree radial growth response to climate is crucial for dendroclimatological research. However, the response relationships between tree-ring indices and climatic factors at different timescales are not yet clear. In this study, the tree-ring width of Huashan pine (Pinus armandii) from Huashan in the Qinling Mountains, north-central China, was used to explore the response differences of tree growth to climatic factors at daily, pentad (5 days), dekad (10 days) and monthly timescales. Correlation function and linear regression analysis were applied in this paper. The tree-ring width showed a more sensitive response to daily and pentad climatic factors. With the timescale decreasing, the absolute value of the maximum correlation coefficient between the tree-ring data and precipitation increases as well as temperature (mean, minimum and maximum temperature). Compared to the other three timescales, pentad was more suitable for analysing the response of tree growth to climate. Relative to the monthly climate data, the association between the tree-ring data and the pentad climate data was more remarkable and accurate, and the reconstruction function based on the pentad climate was also more reliable and stable. We found that the major climatic factor limiting Huashan pine growth was the precipitation of pentads 20-35 (from April 6 to June 24) rather than the well-known April-June precipitation. The pentad was also proved to be a better timescale for analysing the climate and tree growth in the western and eastern Qinling Mountains. The formation of the earlywood density of Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis) from Shimenshan in western Qinling was mainly affected by the maximum temperature of pentads 28-32 (from May 16 to June 9). The maximum temperature of pentads 28-33 (from May 16 to June 14) was the major factor affecting the ring width of Chinese pine from Shirenshan in eastern Qinling.

Comparison of artificial intelligence methods and empirical equations to estimate daily solar radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehdizadeh, Saeid; Behmanesh, Javad; Khalili, Keivan

2016-08-01

In the present research, three artificial intelligence methods including Gene Expression Programming (GEP), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) as well as, 48 empirical equations (10, 12 and 26 equations were temperature-based, sunshine-based and meteorological parameters-based, respectively) were used to estimate daily solar radiation in Kerman, Iran in the period of 1992-2009. To develop the GEP, ANN and ANFIS models, depending on the used empirical equations, various combinations of minimum air temperature, maximum air temperature, mean air temperature, extraterrestrial radiation, actual sunshine duration, maximum possible sunshine duration, sunshine duration ratio, relative humidity and precipitation were considered as inputs in the mentioned intelligent methods. To compare the accuracy of empirical equations and intelligent models, root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute relative error (MARE) and determination coefficient (R2) indices were used. The results showed that in general, sunshine-based and meteorological parameters-based scenarios in ANN and ANFIS models presented high accuracy than mentioned empirical equations. Moreover, the most accurate method in the studied region was ANN11 scenario with five inputs. The values of RMSE, MAE, MARE and R2 indices for the mentioned model were 1.850 MJ m-2 day-1, 1.184 MJ m-2 day-1, 9.58% and 0.935, respectively.

Modification of the degree-day formula for diurnal meltwater generation and refreezing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Žaknić-Ćatović, Ana; Howard, Ken W. F.; Ćatović, Zlatko

2018-02-01

The standard degree-day, temperature-index approach to calculating snowmelt generation and refreezing (the SDD method) is convenient and popularly used but seriously miscalculates the volumes of water that change phase on days when temperatures fluctuate either side of the freezing point. Additionally, the SDD method does not provide any estimate of the duration of daily melting and refreezing events. A modified version of the standard formula is introduced (the MDD method) that overcomes such problems by removing dependence on a single temperature index (the average daily temperature estimated over a 24-h period beginning at midnight) and instead transfers reliance onto daily air temperature extremes (maximum and minimum temperatures) at known times of occurrence. In this way, the modified formula retains the simplicity of the standard approach while targeting those segments of the diurnal air temperature curve that directly relate to periods of melting and freezing. Newly introduced temperature and time degree-day parameters allow the duration of melting and refreezing events to be estimated. The MDD method was evaluated for two sites in the snow-belt region of Canada where the availability of hourly records of daily temperature allowed the required MDD input parameters to be calculated reliably and thus used for comparative purposes. During testing, the MDD input parameters were obtained from daily temperature extremes and their times of occurrence, using two alternative approaches to synthetic air temperature curve generation, one linear, the other trigonometric. Very good agreement was obtained in both cases and confirms the value of the MDD approach. However, there is no significant benefit to be gained by using air temperature approximating functions more complicated than the linear method for supplementing the missing continuous air temperature measurements. Finally, the MDD approach is not seen as a replacement for the regular SDD method, so much as tool that can be applied when the SDD methodology is likely to become unreliable. This is best achieved by using a hybrid SDD-MDD algorithm that invokes the MDD approach only when the necessary conditions arise.

Characteristics of sub-daily precipitation extremes in observed data and regional climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beranová, Romana; Kyselý, Jan; Hanel, Martin

2018-04-01

The study compares characteristics of observed sub-daily precipitation extremes in the Czech Republic with those simulated by Hadley Centre Regional Model version 3 (HadRM3) and Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model version 4 (RCA4) regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalyses and examines diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation and their dependence on intensity and surface temperature. The observed warm-season (May-September) maxima of short-duration (1, 2 and 3 h) amounts show one diurnal peak in the afternoon, which is simulated reasonably well by RCA4, although the peak occurs too early in the model. HadRM3 provides an unrealistic diurnal cycle with a nighttime peak and an afternoon minimum coinciding with the observed maximum for all three ensemble members, which suggests that convection is not captured realistically. Distorted relationships of the diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation to daily maximum temperature in HadRM3 further evidence that underlying physical mechanisms are misrepresented in this RCM. Goodness-of-fit tests indicate that generalised extreme value distribution is an applicable model for both observed and RCM-simulated precipitation maxima. However, the RCMs are not able to capture the range of the shape parameter estimates of distributions of short-duration precipitation maxima realistically, leading to either too many (nearly all for HadRM3) or too few (RCA4) grid boxes in which the shape parameter corresponds to a heavy tail. This means that the distributions of maxima of sub-daily amounts are distorted in the RCM-simulated data and do not match reality well. Therefore, projected changes of sub-daily precipitation extremes in climate change scenarios based on RCMs not resolving convection need to be interpreted with caution.

The impact of environmental factors on marine turtle stranding rates

PubMed Central

Flint, Mark; Limpus, Colin J.; Mills, Paul C.

2017-01-01

Globally, tropical and subtropical regions have experienced an increased frequency and intensity in extreme weather events, ranging from severe drought to protracted rain depressions and cyclones, these coincided with an increased number of marine turtles subsequently reported stranded. This study investigated the relationship between environmental variables and marine turtle stranding. The environmental variables examined in this study, in descending order of importance, were freshwater discharge, monthly mean maximum and minimum air temperatures, monthly average daily diurnal air temperature difference and rainfall for the latitudinal hotspots (-27°, -25°, -23°, -19°) along the Queensland coast as well as for major embayments within these blocks. This study found that marine turtle strandings can be linked to these environmental variables at different lag times (3–12 months), and that cumulative (months added together for maximum lag) and non-cumulative (single month only) effects cause different responses. Different latitudes also showed different responses of marine turtle strandings, both in response direction and timing.Cumulative effects of freshwater discharge in all latitudes resulted in increased strandings 10–12 months later. For latitudes -27°, -25° and -23° non-cumulative effects for discharge resulted in increased strandings 7–12 months later. Latitude -19° had different results for the non-cumulative bay with strandings reported earlier (3–6 months). Monthly mean maximum and minimum air temperatures, monthly average daily diurnal air temperature difference and rainfall had varying results for each examined latitude. This study will allow first responders and resource managers to be better equipped to deal with increased marine turtle stranding rates following extreme weather events. PMID:28771635

Weather and Climate Indicators for Coffee Rust Disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgiou, S.; Imbach, P. A.; Avelino, J.; Anzueto, F.; del Carmen Calderón, G.

2014-12-01

Coffee rust is a disease that has significant impacts on the livelihoods of those who are dependent on the Central American coffee sector. Our investigation has focussed on the weather and climate indicators that favoured the high incidence of coffee rust disease in Central America in 2012 by assessing daily temperature and precipitation data available from 81 weather stations in the INSIVUMEH and ANACAFE networks located in Guatemala. The temperature data were interpolated to determine the corresponding daily data at 1250 farms located across Guatemala, between 400 and 1800 m elevation. Additionally, CHIRPS five day (pentad) data has been used to assess the anomalies between the 2012 and the climatological average precipitation data at farm locations. The weather conditions in 2012 displayed considerable variations from the climatological data. In general the minimum daily temperatures were higher than the corresponding climatology while the maximum temperatures were lower. As a result, the daily diurnal temperature range was generally lower than the corresponding climatological range, leading to an increased number of days where the temperatures fell within the optimal range for either influencing the susceptibility of the coffee plants to coffee rust development during the dry season, or for the development of lesions on the coffee leaves during the wet season. The coffee rust latency period was probably shortened as a result, and farms at high altitudes were impacted due to these increases in minimum temperature. Factors taken into consideration in developing indicators for coffee rust development include: the diurnal temperature range, altitude, the environmental lapse rate and the phenology. We will present the results of our study and discuss the potential for each of the derived weather and climatological indicators to be used within risk assessments and to eventually be considered for use within an early warning system for coffee rust disease.

A note on the correlation between circular and linear variables with an application to wind direction and air temperature data in a Mediterranean climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lototzis, M.; Papadopoulos, G. K.; Droulia, F.; Tseliou, A.; Tsiros, I. X.

2018-04-01

There are several cases where a circular variable is associated with a linear one. A typical example is wind direction that is often associated with linear quantities such as air temperature and air humidity. The analysis of a statistical relationship of this kind can be tested by the use of parametric and non-parametric methods, each of which has its own advantages and drawbacks. This work deals with correlation analysis using both the parametric and the non-parametric procedure on a small set of meteorological data of air temperature and wind direction during a summer period in a Mediterranean climate. Correlations were examined between hourly, daily and maximum-prevailing values, under typical and non-typical meteorological conditions. Both tests indicated a strong correlation between mean hourly wind directions and mean hourly air temperature, whereas mean daily wind direction and mean daily air temperature do not seem to be correlated. In some cases, however, the two procedures were found to give quite dissimilar levels of significance on the rejection or not of the null hypothesis of no correlation. The simple statistical analysis presented in this study, appropriately extended in large sets of meteorological data, may be a useful tool for estimating effects of wind on local climate studies.

Future Extreme Event Vulnerability in the Rural Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, J.; Bowen, F. L.; Partridge, T.; Chipman, J. W.

2017-12-01

Future climate change impacts on humans will be determined by the convergence of evolving physical climate and socioeconomic systems. Of particular concern is the intersection of extreme events and vulnerable populations. Rural areas of the Northeastern United States have experienced increased temperature and precipitation extremes, especially over the past three decades, and face unique challenges due to their physical isolation, natural resources dependent economies, and high poverty rates. To explore the impacts of future extreme events on vulnerable, rural populations in the Northeast, we project extreme events and vulnerability indicators to identify where changes in extreme events and vulnerable populations coincide. Specifically, we analyze future (2046-2075) maximum annual daily temperature, minimum annual daily temperature, maximum annual daily precipitation, and maximum consecutive dry day length for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 using four global climate models (GCM) and a gridded observational dataset. We then overlay those projections with estimates of county-level population and relative income for 2060 to calculate changes in person-events from historical (1976-2005), with a focus on Northeast counties that have less than 250,000 people and are in the bottom income quartile. We find that across the rural Northeast for RCP4.5, heat person-events per year increase tenfold, far exceeding decreases in cold person-events and relatively small changes in precipitation and drought person-events. Counties in the bottom income quartile have historically (1976-2005) experienced a disproportionate number of heat events, and counties in the bottom two income quartiles are projected to experience a greater heat event increase by 2046-2075 than counties in the top two income quartiles. We further explore the relative contributions of event frequency, population, and income changes to the total and geographic distribution of climate change impacts on rural, vulnerable areas of the Northeast.

Statistical Modeling of Daily Stream Temperature for Mitigating Fish Mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldwell, R. J.; Rajagopalan, B.

2011-12-01

Water allocations in the Central Valley Project (CVP) of California require the consideration of short- and long-term needs of many socioeconomic factors including, but not limited to, agriculture, urban use, flood mitigation/control, and environmental concerns. The Endangered Species Act (ESA) ensures that the decision-making process provides sufficient water to limit the impact on protected species, such as salmon, in the Sacramento River Valley. Current decision support tools in the CVP were deemed inadequate by the National Marine Fisheries Service due to the limited temporal resolution of forecasts for monthly stream temperature and fish mortality. Finer scale temporal resolution is necessary to account for the stream temperature variations critical to salmon survival and reproduction. In addition, complementary, long-range tools are needed for monthly and seasonal management of water resources. We will present a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) framework of maximum daily stream temperatures and related attributes, such as: daily stream temperature range, exceedance/non-exceedance of critical threshold temperatures, and the number of hours of exceedance. A suite of predictors that impact stream temperatures are included in the models, including current and prior day values of streamflow, water temperatures of upstream releases from Shasta Dam, air temperature, and precipitation. Monthly models are developed for each stream temperature attribute at the Balls Ferry gauge, an EPA compliance point for meeting temperature criteria. The statistical framework is also coupled with seasonal climate forecasts using a stochastic weather generator to provide ensembles of stream temperature scenarios that can be used for seasonal scale water allocation planning and decisions. Short-term weather forecasts can also be used in the framework to provide near-term scenarios useful for making water release decisions on a daily basis. The framework can be easily translated to other locations and is intended to be a complement to the physical stream temperature modeling efforts that are underway on the river.

Air quality and acute deaths in California, 2000-2012.

PubMed

Young, S Stanley; Smith, Richard L; Lopiano, Keneth K

2017-08-01

Many studies have shown an association between air quality and acute deaths, and such associations are widely interpreted as causal. Several factors call causation and even association into question, for example multiple testing and multiple modeling, publication bias and confirmation bias. Many published studies are difficult or impossible to reproduce because of lack of access to confidential data sources. Here we make publically available a dataset containing daily air quality levels, PM 2.5 and ozone, daily temperature levels, minimum and maximum and daily maximum relative humidity levels for the eight most populous California air basins, thirteen years, >2M deaths, over 37,000 exposure days. The data are analyzed using standard time series analysis, and a sensitivity analysis is computed varying model parameters, locations and years. Our analysis finds little evidence for association between air quality and acute deaths. These results are consistent with those for the widely cited NMMAPS dataset when the latter are restricted to California. The daily death variability was mostly explained by time of year or weather variables; Neither PM 2.5 nor ozone added appreciably to the prediction of daily deaths. These results call into question the widespread belief that association between air quality and acute deaths is causal/near-universal. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multiple extreme environmental conditions of intermittent soda pans in the Carpathian Basin (Central Europe).

PubMed

Boros, Emil; Katalin, V-Balogh; Vörös, Lajos; Horváth, Zsófia

2017-01-01

Soda lakes and pans represent saline ecosystems with unique chemical composition, occurring on all continents. The purpose of this study was to identify and characterise the main environmental gradients and trophic state that prevail in the soda pans (n=84) of the Carpathian Basin in Central Europe. Underwater light conditions, dissolved organic matter, phosphorus and chlorophyll a were investigated in 84 pans during 2009-2010. Besides, water temperature was measured hourly with an automatic sensor throughout one year in a selected pan. The pans were very shallow (median depth: 15 cm), and their extremely high turbidity (Secchi depth median: 3 cm, min: 0.5 cm) was caused by high concentrations of inorganic suspended solids (median: 0.4 g L -1 , max: 16 g L -1 ), which was the dominant (>50%) contributing factor to the vertical attenuation coefficient in 67 pans (80%). All pans were polyhumic (median DOC: 47 mg L -1 ), and total phosphorus concentration was also extremely high (median: 2 mg L -1 , max: 32 mg L -1 ). The daily water temperature maximum (44 °C) and fluctuation maximum (28 °C) were extremely high during summertime. The combination of environmental boundaries: shallowness, daily water temperature fluctuation, intermittent hydroperiod, high turbidity, polyhumic organic carbon concentration, high alkalinity and hypertrophy represent a unique extreme aquatic ecosystem.

Seasonal patterns in body temperature of free-living rock hyrax (Procavia capensis).

PubMed

Brown, Kelly J; Downs, Colleen T

2006-01-01

Rock hyrax (Procavia capensis) are faced with large daily fluctuations in ambient temperature during summer and winter. In this study, peritoneal body temperature of free-living rock hyrax was investigated. During winter, when low ambient temperatures and food supply prevail, rock hyrax maintained a lower core body temperature relative to summer. In winter body temperatures during the day were more variable than at night. This daytime variability is likely a result of body temperatures being raised from basking in the sun. Body temperatures recorded during winter never fell to low levels recorded in previous laboratory studies. During summer ambient temperatures exceeded the thermoneutral zone of the rock hyrax throughout most of the day, while crevice temperatures remained within the thermoneutral zone of rock hyrax. However, in summer variation in core body temperature was small. Minimum and maximum body temperatures did not coincide with minimum and maximum ambient temperatures. Constant body temperatures were also recorded when ambient temperatures reached lethal limits. During summer it is likely that rock hyrax select cooler refugia to escape lethal temperatures and to prevent excessive water loss. Body temperature of rock hyrax recorded in this study reflects the adaptability of this animal to the wide range of ambient temperatures experienced in its natural environment.

Vegetation greenness impacts on maximum and minimum temperatures in northeast Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanamean, J. R.; Pielke, R.A.; Castro, C. L.; Ojima, D.S.; Reed, Bradley C.; Gao, Z.

2003-01-01

The impact of vegetation on the microclimate has not been adequately considered in the analysis of temperature forecasting and modelling. To fill part of this gap, the following study was undertaken.A daily 850–700 mb layer mean temperature, computed from the National Center for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis, and satellite-derived greenness values, as defined by NDVI (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index), were correlated with surface maximum and minimum temperatures at six sites in northeast Colorado for the years 1989–98. The NDVI values, representing landscape greenness, act as a proxy for latent heat partitioning via transpiration. These sites encompass a wide array of environments, from irrigated-urban to short-grass prairie. The explained variance (r2 value) of surface maximum and minimum temperature by only the 850–700 mb layer mean temperature was subtracted from the corresponding explained variance by the 850–700 mb layer mean temperature and NDVI values. The subtraction shows that by including NDVI values in the analysis, the r2 values, and thus the degree of explanation of the surface temperatures, increase by a mean of 6% for the maxima and 8% for the minima over the period March–October. At most sites, there is a seasonal dependence in the explained variance of the maximum temperatures because of the seasonal cycle of plant growth and senescence. Between individual sites, the highest increase in explained variance occurred at the site with the least amount of anthropogenic influence. This work suggests the vegetation state needs to be included as a factor in surface temperature forecasting, numerical modeling, and climate change assessments.

Climate Impacts on Extreme Energy Consumption of Different Types of Buildings

PubMed Central

Li, Mingcai; Shi, Jun; Guo, Jun; Cao, Jingfu; Niu, Jide; Xiong, Mingming

2015-01-01

Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382). The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings. PMID:25923205

Climate impacts on extreme energy consumption of different types of buildings.

PubMed

Li, Mingcai; Shi, Jun; Guo, Jun; Cao, Jingfu; Niu, Jide; Xiong, Mingming

2015-01-01

Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382). The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings.

Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Predicting and Mapping Daily Pan Evaporation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arunkumar, R.; Jothiprakash, V.; Sharma, Kirty

2017-09-01

In this study, Artificial Intelligence techniques such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Model Tree (MT) and Genetic Programming (GP) are used to develop daily pan evaporation time-series (TS) prediction and cause-effect (CE) mapping models. Ten years of observed daily meteorological data such as maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hours, dew point temperature and pan evaporation are used for developing the models. For each technique, several models are developed by changing the number of inputs and other model parameters. The performance of each model is evaluated using standard statistical measures such as Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error, Normalized Mean Square Error and correlation coefficient (R). The results showed that daily TS-GP (4) model predicted better with a correlation coefficient of 0.959 than other TS models. Among various CE models, CE-ANN (6-10-1) resulted better than MT and GP models with a correlation coefficient of 0.881. Because of the complex non-linear inter-relationship among various meteorological variables, CE mapping models could not achieve the performance of TS models. From this study, it was found that GP performs better for recognizing single pattern (time series modelling), whereas ANN is better for modelling multiple patterns (cause-effect modelling) in the data.

A longitudinal ecological study of seasonal influenza deaths in relation to climate conditions in the United States from 1999 through 2011.

PubMed

Geier, David A; Kern, Janet K; Geier, Mark R

2018-01-01

Introduction: Influenza is an acute respiratory disease with significant annual global morbidity/mortality. Influenza transmission occurs in distinct seasonal patterns suggesting an importance of climate conditions on disease pathogenesis. This hypothesis-testing study evaluated microenvironment conditions within different demographic/geographical groups on seasonal influenza deaths in the United States. Materials and methods: The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Wonder online computer interface was utilized to integrate and analyze potential correlations in data generated from 1999 through 2011 for climate conditions of mean daily sunlight (KJ/m 2 ), mean daily maximum air temperature ( o C), mean daily minimum air temperature ( o C), and mean daily precipitation (mm) from the North America Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) database and on influenza mortality (ICD-10 codes:J09, J10, or J11) from the Underlying Cause of Death database. Results and discussion: Significant inverse correlations between the climate conditions of temperature, sunlight, and precipitation and seasonal influenza death rate were observed. Similar effects were observed among males and females, but when the data were separated by race and urbanization status significant differences were observed. Conclusion: This study highlights key factors that can help shape public health policy to deal with seasonal influenza in the United States and beyond.

High-resolution daily gridded data sets of air temperature and wind speed for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brinckmann, Sven; Krähenmann, Stefan; Bissolli, Peter

2016-10-01

New high-resolution data sets for near-surface daily air temperature (minimum, maximum and mean) and daily mean wind speed for Europe (the CORDEX domain) are provided for the period 2001-2010 for the purpose of regional model validation in the framework of DecReg, a sub-project of the German MiKlip project, which aims to develop decadal climate predictions. The main input data sources are SYNOP observations, partly supplemented by station data from the ECA&D data set (http://www.ecad.eu). These data are quality tested to eliminate erroneous data. By spatial interpolation of these station observations, grid data in a resolution of 0.044° (≈ 5km) on a rotated grid with virtual North Pole at 39.25° N, 162° W are derived. For temperature interpolation a modified version of a regression kriging method developed by Krähenmann et al.(2011) is used. At first, predictor fields of altitude, continentality and zonal mean temperature are used for a regression applied to monthly station data. The residuals of the monthly regression and the deviations of the daily data from the monthly averages are interpolated using simple kriging in a second and third step. For wind speed a new method based on the concept used for temperature was developed, involving predictor fields of exposure, roughness length, coastal distance and ERA-Interim reanalysis wind speed at 850 hPa. Interpolation uncertainty is estimated by means of the kriging variance and regression uncertainties. Furthermore, to assess the quality of the final daily grid data, cross validation is performed. Variance explained by the regression ranges from 70 to 90 % for monthly temperature and from 50 to 60 % for monthly wind speed. The resulting RMSE for the final daily grid data amounts to 1-2 K and 1-1.5 ms-1 (depending on season and parameter) for daily temperature parameters and daily mean wind speed, respectively. The data sets presented in this article are published at doi:10.5676/DWD_CDC/DECREG0110v2.

WRF model forecasts and their use for hydroclimate monitoring over southern South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muller, Omar; Lovino, Miguel; Berbery, E. Hugo

2017-04-01

Weather forecasting and monitoring systems based on regional models are becoming increasingly relevant for decision support in agriculture and water management. This work evaluates the predictive and monitoring capabilities of a system based on WRF model simulations at 15 km grid spacing over a domain that encompasses La Plata Basin (LPB) in southern South America, where agriculture and water resources are essential. The model's skill up to a lead-time of 7 days is evaluated with daily precipitation and 2m temperature in-situ observations. Results show high prediction performance with 7 days lead-time throughout the domain and particularly over LPB, where about 70% of rain and no-rain days are correctly predicted. The scores tend to be better over humid climates than over arid-to-semiarid climates. Compared to the arid-semiarid climate, the humid climate has a higher probability of detection and less false alarms. The ranges of the skill scores are similar to those found over the United States, suggesting that proper choice of parameterizations lead to no loss of performance of the model. Daily mean, minimum and maximum forecast temperatures are highly correlated with observations up to 7 day lead time. The best performance is for daily mean temperature, followed by minimum temperature and a slightly weaker performance for maximum temperature over arid regions. The usefulness of WRF products for hydroclimate monitoring was tested for an unprecedented drought in southern Brazil and for a slightly above normal precipitation season in northeastern Argentina. In both cases the model products reproduce the observed precipitation conditions with consistent impacts on soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff. This evaluation validates the model's usefulness to fore-cast weather up to one week and to monitor climate conditions in real time. The scores suggest that the forecast lead-time can be extended into week two, while bias correction methods can reduce part of the systematic errors.

[Characteristics of evaporation over broadleaved Korean pine forest in Changbai Mountains, Northeast China during snow cover period in winter].

PubMed

Li, Hui-dong; Guan, De-xin; Wang, An-zhi; Wu, Jia-Bing; Jin, Chang-jie; ShiI, Ting-ting

2013-04-01

Based on the measurement data of water vapor flux by open-path eddy covariance system and of the micrometeorological factors in broad-leaved Korean pine forest in Changbai Mountains during the snow cover period from 2002 to 2005, this paper analyzed the dynamics of snow cover evaporation and the relationships between the evaporation and meteorological factors. The energy balanced ratio during the snow cover period was 79. 9% , and the latent heat flux accounted for 21. 4% of net radiation. The diurnal variation of the evaporation presented a single-peak curve, and the evaporation rate during snow-melting period was higher than that during stable snow cover period. The half-hour evaporation presented liner relationship with net radiation and quadratic relationship with air temperature. The daily evaporation presented quadratic relationship with net radiation and exponential relationship with air temperature. The daily evaporation presented a dynamic trend of decreasing-stable-increasing, with the maximum at increasing stage and the minimum at stable stage. The maximum value of the daily evaporation was 0.73 mm d-1, and the minimum value was 0. 004 mm d-1. During the snow cover periods of 2002-2003, 2003-2004 and 2004-2005, the annual evaporation was 27.6, 25.5, and 22.9 mm, accounting for 37.9% , 19.5% , and 30. 0% of the precipitation in the same periods, respectively. The mean value of the daily evaporation in the three periods was 0. 17, 0. 19, and 0. 17 mm d-1, respectively.

Developmental models for estimating ecological responses to environmental variability: structural, parametric, and experimental issues.

PubMed

Moore, Julia L; Remais, Justin V

2014-03-01

Developmental models that account for the metabolic effect of temperature variability on poikilotherms, such as degree-day models, have been widely used to study organism emergence, range and development, particularly in agricultural and vector-borne disease contexts. Though simple and easy to use, structural and parametric issues can influence the outputs of such models, often substantially. Because the underlying assumptions and limitations of these models have rarely been considered, this paper reviews the structural, parametric, and experimental issues that arise when using degree-day models, including the implications of particular structural or parametric choices, as well as assumptions that underlie commonly used models. Linear and non-linear developmental functions are compared, as are common methods used to incorporate temperature thresholds and calculate daily degree-days. Substantial differences in predicted emergence time arose when using linear versus non-linear developmental functions to model the emergence time in a model organism. The optimal method for calculating degree-days depends upon where key temperature threshold parameters fall relative to the daily minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as the shape of the daily temperature curve. No method is shown to be universally superior, though one commonly used method, the daily average method, consistently provides accurate results. The sensitivity of model projections to these methodological issues highlights the need to make structural and parametric selections based on a careful consideration of the specific biological response of the organism under study, and the specific temperature conditions of the geographic regions of interest. When degree-day model limitations are considered and model assumptions met, the models can be a powerful tool for studying temperature-dependent development.

Box Model of a Series of Salt Ponds, as Applied to the Alviso Salt Pond Complex, South San Francisco Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lionberger, Megan A.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Shellenbarger, Gregory; Orlando, James L.; Ganju, Neil K.

2007-01-01

This report documents the development and application of a box model to simulate water level, salinity, and temperature of the Alviso Salt Pond Complex in South San Francisco Bay. These ponds were purchased for restoration in 2003 and currently are managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to maintain existing wildlife habitat and prevent a build up of salt during the development of a long-term restoration plan. The model was developed for the purpose of aiding pond managers during the current interim management period to achieve these goals. A previously developed box model of a salt pond, SPOOM, which calculates daily pond volume and salinity, was reconfigured to simulate multiple connected ponds and a temperature subroutine was added. The updated model simulates rainfall, evaporation, water flowing between the ponds and the adjacent tidal slough network, and water flowing from one pond to the next by gravity and pumps. Theoretical and measured relations between discharge and corresponding differences in water level are used to simulate most flows between ponds and between ponds and sloughs. The principle of conservation of mass is used to calculate daily pond volume and salinity. The model configuration includes management actions specified in the Interim Stewardship Plan for the ponds. The temperature subroutine calculates hourly net heat transfer to or from a pond resulting in a rise or drop in pond temperature and daily average, minimum, and maximum pond temperatures are recorded. Simulated temperature was compared with hourly measured data from pond 3 of the Napa?Sonoma Salt Pond Complex and monthly measured data from pond A14 of the Alviso Salt-Pond Complex. Comparison showed good agreement of measured and simulated pond temperature on the daily and monthly time scales.

Microclimate variables of the ambient environment deliver the actual estimates of the extrinsic incubation period of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum: a study from a malaria-endemic urban setting, Chennai in India.

PubMed

Thomas, Shalu; Ravishankaran, Sangamithra; Justin, N A Johnson Amala; Asokan, Aswin; Kalsingh, T Maria Jusler; Mathai, Manu Thomas; Valecha, Neena; Montgomery, Jacqui; Thomas, Matthew B; Eapen, Alex

2018-05-16

Environmental factors such as temperature, relative humidity and their daily variation influence a range of mosquito life history traits and hence, malaria transmission. The standard way of characterizing environmental factors with meteorological station data need not be the actual microclimates experienced by mosquitoes within local transmission settings. A year-long study was conducted in Chennai, India to characterize local temperature and relative humidity (RH). Data loggers (Hobos) were placed in a range of probable indoor and outdoor resting sites of Anopheles stephensi. Recordings were taken hourly to estimate mean temperature and RH, together with daily temperature range (DTR) and daily relative humidity range. The temperature data were used to explore the predicted variation in extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax between microhabitats and across the year. Mean daily temperatures within the indoor settings were significantly warmer than those recorded outdoors. DTR in indoor environments was observed to be modest and ranged from 2 to 6 °C. Differences in EIP between microhabitats were most notable during the hottest summer months of April-June, with parasite development predicted to be impaired for tiled houses and overhead tanks. Overall, the prevailing warm and stable conditions suggest rapid parasite development rate regardless of where mosquitoes might rest. Taking account of seasonal and local environmental variation, the predicted EIP of P. falciparum varied from a minimum of 9.1 days to a maximum of 15.3 days, while the EIP of P. vivax varied from 8.0 to 24.3 days. This study provides a detailed picture of the actual microclimates experienced by mosquitoes in an urban slum malaria setting. The data indicate differences between microhabitats that could impact mosquito and parasite life history traits. The predicted effects for EIP are often relatively subtle, but variation between minimum and maximum EIPs can play a role in disease transmission, depending on the time of year and where mosquitoes rest. Appropriate characterization of the local microclimate conditions would be the key to fully understand the effects of environment on local transmission ecology.

Urban Heat Wave Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quattrochi, D. A.; Jedlovec, G.; Crane, D. L.; Meyer, P. J.; LaFontaine, F.

2016-12-01

Heat waves are one of the largest causes of environmentally-related deaths globally and are likely to become more numerous as a result of climate change. The intensification of heat waves by the urban heat island effect and elevated humidity, combined with urban demographics, are key elements leading to these disasters. Better warning of the potential hazards may help lower risks associated with heat waves. Moderate resolution thermal data from NASA satellites is used to derive high spatial resolution estimates of apparent temperature (heat index) over urban regions. These data, combined with demographic data, are used to produce a daily heat hazard/risk map for selected cities. MODIS data are used to derive daily composite maximum and minimum land surface temperature (LST) fields to represent the amplitude of the diurnal temperature cycle and identify extreme heat days. Compositing routines are used to generate representative daily maximum and minimum LSTs for the urban environment. The limited effect of relative humidity on the apparent temperature (typically 10-15%) allows for the use of modeled moisture fields to convert LST to apparent temperature without loss of spatial variability. The daily max/min apparent temperature fields are used to identify abnormally extreme heat days relative to climatological values in order to produce a heat wave hazard map. Reference to climatological values normalizes the hazard for a particular region (e.g., the impact of an extreme heat day). A heat wave hazard map has been produced for several case study periods and then computed on a quasi-operational basis during the summer of 2016 for Atlanta, GA, Chicago, IL, St. Louis, MO, and Huntsville, AL. A hazard does not become a risk until someone or something is exposed to that hazard at a level that might do harm. Demographic information is used to assess the urban risk associated with the heat wave hazard. Collectively, the heat wave hazard product can warn people in urban regions who do not have the means to provide air conditioning or take other means to stay cool. The heat wave risk product is conveyed to users via a website that describes current and historical heat wave information and is updated in real time as needed. These risk maps can be used for better monitoring of public health risk from extreme heat events in urban areas.

Associations between Temperature and Hospital Admissions for Subarachnoid Hemorrhage in Korea

PubMed Central

Lee, Suji; Guth, Matthias

2017-01-01

The relationship between temperature and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is less studied than that between temperature and myocardial infarction or other cardiovascular diseases. This study investigated the association between daily temperature and risk of SAH by analyzing the hospital admission records of 111,316 SAH patients from 2004 to 2012 in Korea. A Poisson regression model was used to examine the association between temperature and daily SAH hospital admissions. To analyze data and identify vulnerable groups, we used the following subgroups: sex, age, insurance type, area (rural or urban), and different climate zones. We confirmed a markedly higher SAH risk only for people of low socioeconomic status in both hot and cold temperatures; the relative risk (RR) in the Medicaid group was significantly increased and ranged from 1.04 to 1.11 for cold temperatures and 1.10 to 1.11 for hot temperatures. For the National Health Insurance group, the RR was increased to 1.02 for the maximum temperature only. The increased risk for SAH was highest in the temperate zone. An increase above the heat threshold temperature and a decrease below the cold threshold temperature were correlated with an increased risk of SAH in susceptible populations and were associated with different lag effects and RRs. PMID:28430143

Effect of daily environmental temperature on farrowing rate and total born in dam line sows.

PubMed

Bloemhof, S; Mathur, P K; Knol, E F; van der Waaij, E H

2013-06-01

Heat stress is known to adversely affect reproductive performance of sows. However, it is important to know on which days or periods during the reproduction cycle heat stress has the greatest effects for designing appropriate genetic or management strategies. Therefore, this study was conducted to identify days and periods that have greatest effects on farrowing rate and total born of sows using 5 different measures of heat stress. The data consisted of 22,750 records on 5024 Dutch Yorkshire dam line sows from 16 farms in Spain and Portugal. Heat stress on a given day was measured in terms of maximum temperature, diurnal temperature range and heat load. The heat load was estimated using 3 definitions considering different upper critical temperatures. Identification of days during the reproduction cycle that had maximum effect was based on the Pearson correlation between the heat stress variable and the reproduction trait, estimated for each day during the reproduction cycle. Polynomial functions were fitted to describe the trends of these correlations and the days with greatest negative correlation were considered as days with maximum effect. Correlations were greatest for maximum temperature, followed by those for heat load and diurnal temperature range. Correlations for both farrowing rate and total born were stronger in gilts than in sows. This implies that heat stress has a stronger effect on reproductive performance of gilts than of sows. Heat stress during the third week (21 to 14 d) before first insemination had largest effect on farrowing rate. Heat stress during the period between 7 d before successful insemination until 12 d after that had largest effect on total born. Correlations between temperatures on consecutive days during these periods were extremely high ( > 0.9). Therefore, for farrowing rate the maximum temperature on 21 d before first insemination and for total born the maximum temperature at day of successful insemination can be used as predictive measures of heat stress in commercial sow farms. Additionally, differences between daughter groups of sires were identified in response to high temperatures. This might indicate possibilities for genetic selection on heat tolerance.

Time trends in minimum mortality temperatures in Castile-La Mancha (Central Spain): 1975-2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miron, Isidro J.; Criado-Alvarez, Juan José; Diaz, Julio; Linares, Cristina; Mayoral, Sheila; Montero, Juan Carlos

2008-03-01

The relationship between air temperature and human mortality is described as non-linear, with mortality tending to rise in response to increasingly hot or cold ambient temperatures from a given minimum mortality or optimal comfort temperature, which varies from some areas to others according to their climatic and socio-demographic characteristics. Changes in these characteristics within any specific region could modify this relationship. This study sought to examine the time trend in the maximum temperature of minimum organic-cause mortality in Castile-La Mancha, from 1975 to 2003. The analysis was performed by using daily series of maximum temperatures and organic-cause mortality rates grouped into three decades (1975-1984, 1985-1994, 1995-2003) to compare confidence intervals ( p < 0.05) obtained by estimating the 10-yearly mortality rates corresponding to the maximum temperatures of minimum mortality calculated for each decade. Temporal variations in the effects of cold and heat on mortality were ascertained by means of ARIMA models (Box-Jenkins) and cross-correlation functions (CCF) at seven lags. We observed a significant decrease in comfort temperature (from 34.2°C to 27.8°C) between the first two decades in the Province of Toledo, along with a growing number of significant lags in the summer CFF (1, 3 and 5, respectively). The fall in comfort temperature is attributable to the increase in the effects of heat on mortality, due, in all likelihood, to the percentage increase in the elderly population.

Using air/water/sediment temperature contrasts to identify groundwater seepage locations in small streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karan, S.; Sebok, E.; Engesgaard, P. K.

2016-12-01

For identifying groundwater seepage locations in small streams within a headwater catchment, we present a method expanding on the linear regression of air and stream temperatures. Thus, by measuring the temperatures in dual-depth; in the stream column and at the streambed-water interface (SWI), we apply metrics from linear regression analysis of temperatures between air/stream and air/SWI (linear regression slope, intercept and coefficient of determination), and the daily mean temperatures (temperature variance and the average difference between the minimum and maximum daily temperatures). Our study show that using metrics from single-depth stream temperature measurements only are not sufficient to identify substantial groundwater seepage locations within a headwater stream. Conversely, comparing the metrics from dual-depth temperatures show significant differences so that at groundwater seepage locations, temperatures at the SWI, merely explain 43-75 % of the variation opposed to ≥91 % at the corresponding stream column temperatures. The figure showing a box-plot of the variation in daily mean temperature depict that at several locations there is great variation in the range the upper and lower loggers due to groundwater seepage. In general, the linear regression show that at these locations at the SWI, the slopes (<0.25) and intercepts (>6.5oC) are substantially lower and higher, while the mean diel amplitudes (<0.98oC) are decreased compared to remaining locations. The dual-depth approach was applied in a post-glacial fluvial setting, where metrics analyses overall corresponded to field measurements of groundwater fluxes deduced from vertical streambed temperatures and stream flow accretions. Thus, we propose a method reliably identifying groundwater seepage locations along streambed in such settings.

Hydrothermal extremes at the South-West Pribaikalie during the current climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voropay, Nadezhda

2017-04-01

Climatic extremes of air temperature and precipitation were analyzed for the Tunka Intermountain Depression (South-West Pribaikalie, Buryatia, Russian Federation). Intermountain depressions occupy a quarter of the territory of the Baikal region. The specific climatic conditions in the depressions are formed due to the geographic location and the influence of latitudinal zonation and altitudinal gradients. Air temperature and precipitation data records from at weather stations for the period 1940-2015 were analyzed. Long-term average annual temperature is negative and varies from -0.8 °C to -2.4 °C. Air temperature absolute minimum is -48 °C, absolute maximum is +36 °C. The long-term average annual precipitation is 370-480 mm, but in some years annual precipitation reach 760 mm. The summer months have about 70% of the total annual precipitation, in July and August the sum may reach 340 mm. Maximum daily sum of rainfalls is 80 mm. The contribution of the global and regional circulation characteristics into the variability of regional climatic characteristics was estimated.

Synoptic and meteorological drivers of extreme ozone concentrations over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, Noelia Felipe; Sillmann, Jana; Schnell, Jordan L.; Rust, Henning W.; Butler, Tim

2016-04-01

The present work assesses the relationship between local and synoptic meteorological conditions and surface ozone concentration over Europe in spring and summer months, during the period 1998-2012 using a new interpolated data set of observed surface ozone concentrations over the European domain. Along with local meteorological conditions, the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on surface ozone is addressed through a set of airflow indices computed with a novel implementation of a grid-by-grid weather type classification across Europe. Drivers of surface ozone over the full distribution of maximum daily 8-hour average values are investigated, along with drivers of the extreme high percentiles and exceedances or air quality guideline thresholds. Three different regression techniques are applied: multiple linear regression to assess the drivers of maximum daily ozone, logistic regression to assess the probability of threshold exceedances and quantile regression to estimate the meteorological influence on extreme values, as represented by the 95th percentile. The relative importance of the input parameters (predictors) is assessed by a backward stepwise regression procedure that allows the identification of the most important predictors in each model. Spatial patterns of model performance exhibit distinct variations between regions. The inclusion of the ozone persistence is particularly relevant over Southern Europe. In general, the best model performance is found over Central Europe, where the maximum temperature plays an important role as a driver of maximum daily ozone as well as its extreme values, especially during warmer months.

The 2011 heat wave in Greater Houston: Effects of land use on temperature.

PubMed

Zhou, Weihe; Ji, Shuang; Chen, Tsun-Hsuan; Hou, Yi; Zhang, Kai

2014-11-01

Effects of land use on temperatures during severe heat waves have been rarely studied. This paper examines land use-temperature associations during the 2011 heat wave in Greater Houston. We obtained high resolution of satellite-derived land use data from the US National Land Cover Database, and temperature observations at 138 weather stations from Weather Underground, Inc (WU) during the August of 2011, which was the hottest month in Houston since 1889. Land use regression and quantile regression methods were applied to the monthly averages of daily maximum/mean/minimum temperatures and 114 land use-related predictors. Although selected variables vary with temperature metric, distance to the coastline consistently appears among all models. Other variables are generally related to high developed intensity, open water or wetlands. In addition, our quantile regression analysis shows that distance to the coastline and high developed intensity areas have larger impacts on daily average temperatures at higher quantiles, and open water area has greater impacts on daily minimum temperatures at lower quantiles. By utilizing both land use regression and quantile regression on a recent heat wave in one of the largest US metropolitan areas, this paper provides a new perspective on the impacts of land use on temperatures. Our models can provide estimates of heat exposures for epidemiological studies, and our findings can be combined with demographic variables, air conditioning and relevant diseases information to identify 'hot spots' of population vulnerability for public health interventions to reduce heat-related health effects during heat waves. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of temperature differences for paired stations of the U.S. Climate Reference Network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gallo, K.P.

2005-01-01

Adjustments to data observed at pairs of climate stations have been recommended to remove the biases introduced by differences between the stations in time of observation, temperature instrumentatios, latitude, and elevation. A new network of climate stations, located in rural settings, permits comparisons of temperatures for several pairs of stations without two of the biases (time of observation and instrurtientation). The daily, monthly, and annual minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures were compared for five pairs of stations included in the U.S. Climate Reference Network. Significant differences were found between the paired stations in the annual minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures for all five pairs of stations. Adjustments for latitude and elevation differences contributed to greater differences in mean annual temperature for four of the five stations. Lapse rates computed from the mean annual temperature differences between station pairs differed from a constant value, whether or not latitude adjustments were made to the data. The results suggest that microclimate influences on temperatures observed at nearby (horizontally and vertically) stations are potentially much greater than influences that might be due to latitude or elevation differences between the stations. ?? 2005 American Meteorological Society.

Daily Air Temperature and Electricity Load in Spain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valor, Enric; Meneu, Vicente; Caselles, Vicente

2001-08-01

Weather has a significant impact on different sectors of the economy. One of the most sensitive is the electricity market, because power demand is linked to several weather variables, mainly the air temperature. This work analyzes the relationship between electricity load and daily air temperature in Spain, using a population-weighted temperature index. The electricity demand shows a significant trend due to socioeconomic factors, in addition to daily and monthly seasonal effects that have been taken into account to isolate the weather influence on electricity load. The results indicate that the relationship is nonlinear, showing a `comfort interval' of ±3°C around 18°C and two saturation points beyond which the electricity load no longer increases. The analysis has also revealed that the sensitivity of electricity load to daily air temperature has increased along time, in a higher degree for summer than for winter, although the sensitivity in the cold season is always more significant than in the warm season. Two different temperature-derived variables that allow a better characterization of the observed relationship have been used: the heating and cooling degree-days. The regression of electricity data on them defines the heating and cooling demand functions, which show correlation coefficients of 0.79 and 0.87, and predicts electricity load with standard errors of estimate of ±4% and ±2%, respectively. The maximum elasticity of electricity demand is observed at 7 cooling degree-days and 9 heating degree-days, and the saturation points are reached at 11 cooling degree-days and 13 heating degree-days, respectively. These results are helpful in modeling electricity load behavior for predictive purposes.

Ozone trends and their relationship to characteristic weather patterns.

PubMed

Austin, Elena; Zanobetti, Antonella; Coull, Brent; Schwartz, Joel; Gold, Diane R; Koutrakis, Petros

2015-01-01

Local trends in ozone concentration may differ by meteorological conditions. Furthermore, the trends occurring at the extremes of the Ozone distribution are often not reported even though these may be very different than the trend observed at the mean or median and they may be more relevant to health outcomes. Classify days of observation over a 16-year period into broad categories that capture salient daily local weather characteristics. Determine the rate of change in mean and median O3 concentrations within these different categories to assess how concentration trends are impacted by daily weather. Further examine if trends vary for observations in the extremes of the O3 distribution. We used k-means clustering to categorize days of observation based on the maximum daily temperature, standard deviation of daily temperature, mean daily ground level wind speed, mean daily water vapor pressure and mean daily sea-level barometric pressure. The five cluster solution was determined to be the appropriate one based on cluster diagnostics and cluster interpretability. Trends in cluster frequency and pollution trends within clusters were modeled using Poisson regression with penalized splines as well as quantile regression. There were five characteristic groupings identified. The frequency of days with large standard deviations in hourly temperature decreased over the observation period, whereas the frequency of warmer days with smaller deviations in temperature increased. O3 trends were significantly different within the different weather groupings. Furthermore, the rate of O3 change for the 95th percentile and 5th percentile was significantly different than the rate of change of the median for several of the weather categories.We found that O3 trends vary between different characteristic local weather patterns. O3 trends were significantly different between the different weather groupings suggesting an important interaction between changes in prevailing weather conditions and O3 concentration.

Adjusting skewness and maximum 0.5 hour intensity in CLIGEN to improve extreme event and sub-daily intensity generation for assessing climate change impacts

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Both measured data and GCM/RCM projections show an general increasing trend in extreme rainfall events as temperature rises in US. Proper simulation of extreme events is particularly important for assessing climate change impacts on soil erosion and hydrology. The objective of this paper is to fin...

Development of a Statistical Validation Methodology for Fire Weather Indices

Treesearch

Brian E. Potter; Scott Goodrick; Tim Brown

2003-01-01

Fire managers and forecasters must have tools, such as fire indices, to summarize large amounts of complex information. These tools allow them to identify and plan for periods of elevated risk and/or wildfire potential. This need was once met using simple measures like relative humidity or maximum daily temperature (e.g., Gisborne, 1936) to describe fire weather, and...

Modeling physical and chemical climate of the northeastern United States for a geographic information system

Treesearch

Scott V. Ollinger; John D. Aber; Anthony C. Federer; Gary M. Lovett; Jennifer M. Ellis

1995-01-01

A model of physical and chemical climate was developed for New York and New England that can be used in a GIs for integration with ecosystem models. The variables included are monthly average maximum and minimum daily temperatures, precipitation, humidity, and solar radiation, as well as annual atmospheric deposition of sulfur and nitrogen. Equations generated from...

Dynamics of carbon dioxide exchange of a wheat community grown in a semi-closed environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Corey, Kenneth A.

1989-01-01

A wheat (Triticum aestivum Yecora Rojo) community was grown in the semi-closed conditions of the NASA/KSC Biomass Production Chamber (BPC). Experiments were conducted to determine whole community carbon dioxide exchange rates as influenced by growth and development, carbon dioxide concentration, time within the photoperiod, irradiance, and temperature. Plants were grown at a population of about 1500 per sq meter using a 20 hour light/4 hour dark daily regime. Light was supplied by HPS vapor lamps and irradiance was maintained in the range of 590 to 675 mu mol per sq meter. The temperature regime was 20 C light/16 C dark and nutrients were supplied hydroponically as a thin film. Fractional interception of PPF by the community increased rapidly during growth reaching a maximum of 0.96, 24 days after planting. This time corresponded to canopy closure and maximum rates of net photosynthesis (NP). Net daily CO2 utilization rates were calculated to day 48 and a 4th order regression equation integrated to obtain total moles of CO2 fixed by the community. This procedure may be useful for monitoring and prediction of biomass yields in a closed ecology life support system (CELSS).

Regional climate change study requires new temperature datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, K.; Zhou, C.

2016-12-01

Analyses of global mean air temperature (Ta), i. e., NCDC GHCN, GISS, and CRUTEM4, are the fundamental datasets for climate change study and provide key evidence for global warming. All of the global temperature analyses over land are primarily based on meteorological observations of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) and their averages (T2) because in most weather stations, the measurements of Tmax and Tmin may be the only choice for a homogenous century-long analysis of mean temperature. Our studies show that these datasets are suitable for long-term global warming studies. However, they may introduce substantial bias in quantifying local and regional warming rates, i.e., with a root mean square error of more than 25% at 5°x 5° grids. From 1973 to 1997, the current datasets tend to significantly underestimate the warming rate over the central U.S. and overestimate the warming rate over the northern high latitudes. Similar results revealed during the period 1998-2013, the warming hiatus period, indicate the use of T2 enlarges the spatial contrast of temperature trends. This because T2 over land only sample air temperature twice daily and cannot accurately reflect land-atmosphere and incoming radiation variations in the temperature diurnal cycle. For better regional climate change detection and attribution, we suggest creating new global mean air temperature datasets based on the recently available high spatiotemporal resolution meteorological observations, i.e., daily four observations weather station since 1960s, These datasets will not only help investigate dynamical processes on temperature variances but also help better evaluate the reanalyzed and modeled simulations of temperature and make some substantial improvements for other related climate variables in models, especially over regional and seasonal aspects.

Regional climate change study requires new temperature datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kaicun; Zhou, Chunlüe

2017-04-01

Analyses of global mean air temperature (Ta), i. e., NCDC GHCN, GISS, and CRUTEM4, are the fundamental datasets for climate change study and provide key evidence for global warming. All of the global temperature analyses over land are primarily based on meteorological observations of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) and their averages (T2) because in most weather stations, the measurements of Tmax and Tmin may be the only choice for a homogenous century-long analysis of mean temperature. Our studies show that these datasets are suitable for long-term global warming studies. However, they may have substantial biases in quantifying local and regional warming rates, i.e., with a root mean square error of more than 25% at 5 degree grids. From 1973 to 1997, the current datasets tend to significantly underestimate the warming rate over the central U.S. and overestimate the warming rate over the northern high latitudes. Similar results revealed during the period 1998-2013, the warming hiatus period, indicate the use of T2 enlarges the spatial contrast of temperature trends. This is because T2 over land only samples air temperature twice daily and cannot accurately reflect land-atmosphere and incoming radiation variations in the temperature diurnal cycle. For better regional climate change detection and attribution, we suggest creating new global mean air temperature datasets based on the recently available high spatiotemporal resolution meteorological observations, i.e., daily four observations weather station since 1960s. These datasets will not only help investigate dynamical processes on temperature variances but also help better evaluate the reanalyzed and modeled simulations of temperature and make some substantial improvements for other related climate variables in models, especially over regional and seasonal aspects.

Temperature modifies the association between particulate air pollution and mortality: A multi-city study in South Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Satbyul Estella; Lim, Youn-Hee; Kim, Ho

2015-08-15

Substantial epidemiologic literature has demonstrated the effects of air pollution and temperature on mortality. However, there is inconsistent evidence regarding the temperature modification effect on acute mortality due to air pollution. Herein, we investigated the effects of temperature on the relationship between air pollution and mortality due to non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory death in seven cities in South Korea. We applied stratified time-series models to the data sets in order to examine whether the effects of particulate matter <10 μm (PM10) on mortality were modified by temperature. The effect of PM10 on daily mortality was first quantified within different ranges of temperatures at each location using a time-series model, and then the estimates were pooled through a random-effects meta-analysis using the maximum likelihood method. From all the data sets, 828,787 non-accidental deaths were registered from 2000-2009. The highest overall risk between PM10 and non-accidental or cardiovascular mortality was observed on extremely hot days (daily mean temperature: >99th percentile) in individuals aged <65 years. In those aged ≥65 years, the highest overall risk between PM10 and non-accidental or cardiovascular mortality was observed on very hot days and not on extremely hot days (daily mean temperature: 95-99th percentile). There were strong harmful effects from PM10 on non-accidental mortality with the highest temperature range (>99th percentile) in men, with a very high temperature range (95-99th percentile) in women. Our findings showed that temperature can affect the relationship between the PM10 levels and cause-specific mortality. Moreover, the differences were apparent after considering the age and sex groups. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistical downscaling of mean temperature, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature on the Loess Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Jiang; Miao, Chiyuan

2017-04-01

Climate change is considered to be one of the greatest environmental threats. This has urged scientific communities to focus on the hot topic. Global climate models (GCMs) are the primary tool used for studying climate change. However, GCMs are limited because of their coarse spatial resolution and inability to resolve important sub-grid scale features such as terrain and clouds. Statistical downscaling methods can be used to downscale large-scale variables to local-scale. In this study, we assess the applicability of the widely used Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) for the Loess Plateau, China. The observed variables included daily mean temperature (TMEAN), maximum temperature (TMAX) and minimum temperature (TMIN) from 1961 to 2005. The and the daily atmospheric data were taken from reanalysis data from 1961 to 2005, and global climate model outputs from Beijing Normal University Earth System Model (BNU-ESM) from 1961 to 2099 and from observations . The results show that SDSM performs well for these three climatic variables on the Loess Plateau. After downscaling, the root mean square errors for TMEAN, TMAX, TMIN for BNU-ESM were reduced by 70.9%, 75.1%, and 67.2%, respectively. All the rates of change in TMEAN, TMAX and TMIN during the 21st century decreased after SDSM downscaling. We also show that SDSM can effectively reduce uncertainty, compared with the raw model outputs. TMEAN uncertainty was reduced by 27.1%, 26.8%, and 16.3% for the future scenarios of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The corresponding reductions in uncertainty were 23.6%, 30.7%, and 18.7% for TMAX, ; and 37.6%, 31.8%, and 23.2% for TMIN.

Long-term trends in daily temperature extremes in Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salman, Saleem A.; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Al-Abadi, Alaa M.

2017-12-01

The existence of long-term persistence (LTP) in hydro-climatic time series can lead to considerable change in significance of trends. Therefore, past findings of climatic trend studies that did not consider LTP became a disputable issue. A study has been conducted to assess the trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Iraq in recent years (1965-2015) using both ordinary Mann-Kendal (MK) test; and the modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can differentiate the multi-decadal oscillatory variations from secular trends. Trends in annual and seasonal minimum and maximum temperatures, diurnal temperature range (DTR), and 14 temperature-related extremes were assessed. MK test detected the significant increases in minimum and maximum temperature at all stations, where m-MK test detected at 86% and 80% of all stations, respectively. The temperature in Iraq is increasing 2 to 7 times faster than global temperature rise. The minimum temperature is increasing more (0.48-1.17 °C/decade) than maximum temperature (0.25-1.01 °C/decade). Temperature rise is higher in northern Iraq and in summer. The hot extremes particularly warm nights are increasing all over Iraq at a rate of 2.92-10.69 days/decade, respectively. On the other hand, numbers of cold days are decreasing at some stations at a rate of - 2.65 to - 8.40 days/decade. The use of m-MK test along with MK test confirms the significant increase in temperature and some of the temperature extremes in Iraq. This study suggests that trends in many temperature extremes in the region estimated in previous studies using MK test may be due to natural variability of climate, which empathizes the need for validation of the trends by considering LTP in time series.

Use of regional climate model output for hydrologic simulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, L.E.; Clark, M.P.; Wilby, R.L.; Gutowski, W.J.; Leavesley, G.H.; Pan, Z.; Arritt, R.W.; Takle, E.S.

2002-01-01

Daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature time series from a regional climate model (RegCM2) configured using the continental United States as a domain and run on a 52-km (approximately) spatial resolution were used as input to a distributed hydrologic model for one rainfall-dominated basin (Alapaha River at Statenville, Georgia) and three snowmelt-dominated basins (Animas River at Durango. Colorado; east fork of the Carson River near Gardnerville, Nevada: and Cle Elum River near Roslyn, Washington). For comparison purposes, spatially averaged daily datasets of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature were developed from measured data for each basin. These datasets included precipitation and temperature data for all stations (hereafter, All-Sta) located within the area of the RegCM2 output used for each basin, but excluded station data used to calibrate the hydrologic model. Both the RegCM2 output and All-Sta data capture the gross aspects of the seasonal cycles of precipitation and temperature. However, in all four basins, the RegCM2- and All-Sta-based simulations of runoff show little skill on a daily basis [Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) values range from 0.05 to 0.37 for RegCM2 and -0.08 to 0.65 for All-Sta]. When the precipitation and temperature biases are corrected in the RegCM2 output and All-Sta data (Bias-RegCM2 and Bias-All, respectively) the accuracy of the daily runoff simulations improve dramatically for the snowmelt-dominated basins (NS values range from 0.41 to 0.66 for RegCM2 and 0.60 to 0.76 for All-Sta). In the rainfall-dominated basin, runoff simulations based on the Bias-RegCM2 output show no skill (NS value of 0.09) whereas Bias-All simulated runoff improves (NS value improved from - 0.08 to 0.72). These results indicate that measured data at the coarse resolution of the RegCM2 output can be made appropriate for basin-scale modeling through bias correction (essentially a magnitude correction). However, RegCM2 output, even when bias corrected, does not contain the day-to-day variability present in the All-Sta dataset that is necessary for basin-scale modeling. Future work is warranted to identify the causes for systematic biases in RegCM2 simulations, develop methods to remove the biases, and improve RegCM2 simulations of daily variability in local climate.

Soil surface temperatures reveal moderation of the urban heat island effect by trees and shrubs

PubMed Central

Edmondson, J. L.; Stott, I.; Davies, Z. G.; Gaston, K. J.; Leake, J. R.

2016-01-01

Urban areas are major contributors to air pollution and climate change, causing impacts on human health that are amplified by the microclimatological effects of buildings and grey infrastructure through the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Urban greenspaces may be important in reducing surface temperature extremes, but their effects have not been investigated at a city-wide scale. Across a mid-sized UK city we buried temperature loggers at the surface of greenspace soils at 100 sites, stratified by proximity to city centre, vegetation cover and land-use. Mean daily soil surface temperature over 11 months increased by 0.6 °C over the 5 km from the city outskirts to the centre. Trees and shrubs in non-domestic greenspace reduced mean maximum daily soil surface temperatures in the summer by 5.7 °C compared to herbaceous vegetation, but tended to maintain slightly higher temperatures in winter. Trees in domestic gardens, which tend to be smaller, were less effective at reducing summer soil surface temperatures. Our findings reveal that the UHI effects soil temperatures at a city-wide scale, and that in their moderating urban soil surface temperature extremes, trees and shrubs may help to reduce the adverse impacts of urbanization on microclimate, soil processes and human health. PMID:27641002

Soil surface temperatures reveal moderation of the urban heat island effect by trees and shrubs.

PubMed

Edmondson, J L; Stott, I; Davies, Z G; Gaston, K J; Leake, J R

2016-09-19

Urban areas are major contributors to air pollution and climate change, causing impacts on human health that are amplified by the microclimatological effects of buildings and grey infrastructure through the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Urban greenspaces may be important in reducing surface temperature extremes, but their effects have not been investigated at a city-wide scale. Across a mid-sized UK city we buried temperature loggers at the surface of greenspace soils at 100 sites, stratified by proximity to city centre, vegetation cover and land-use. Mean daily soil surface temperature over 11 months increased by 0.6 °C over the 5 km from the city outskirts to the centre. Trees and shrubs in non-domestic greenspace reduced mean maximum daily soil surface temperatures in the summer by 5.7 °C compared to herbaceous vegetation, but tended to maintain slightly higher temperatures in winter. Trees in domestic gardens, which tend to be smaller, were less effective at reducing summer soil surface temperatures. Our findings reveal that the UHI effects soil temperatures at a city-wide scale, and that in their moderating urban soil surface temperature extremes, trees and shrubs may help to reduce the adverse impacts of urbanization on microclimate, soil processes and human health.

Soil surface temperatures reveal moderation of the urban heat island effect by trees and shrubs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edmondson, J. L.; Stott, I.; Davies, Z. G.; Gaston, K. J.; Leake, J. R.

2016-09-01

Urban areas are major contributors to air pollution and climate change, causing impacts on human health that are amplified by the microclimatological effects of buildings and grey infrastructure through the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Urban greenspaces may be important in reducing surface temperature extremes, but their effects have not been investigated at a city-wide scale. Across a mid-sized UK city we buried temperature loggers at the surface of greenspace soils at 100 sites, stratified by proximity to city centre, vegetation cover and land-use. Mean daily soil surface temperature over 11 months increased by 0.6 °C over the 5 km from the city outskirts to the centre. Trees and shrubs in non-domestic greenspace reduced mean maximum daily soil surface temperatures in the summer by 5.7 °C compared to herbaceous vegetation, but tended to maintain slightly higher temperatures in winter. Trees in domestic gardens, which tend to be smaller, were less effective at reducing summer soil surface temperatures. Our findings reveal that the UHI effects soil temperatures at a city-wide scale, and that in their moderating urban soil surface temperature extremes, trees and shrubs may help to reduce the adverse impacts of urbanization on microclimate, soil processes and human health.

Gamma-radiation monitoring in post-tectonic biotitic granites at Celorico da Beira

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domingos, Filipa; Barbosa, Susana; Pereira, Alcides; Neves, Luís

2017-04-01

Despite its obvious relevance, the effect of meteorological variables such as temperature, pressure, wind, rainfall and particularly humidity on the temporal variability of natural radiation is complex and still not fully understood. Moreover, the nature of their influence with increasing depth is also poorly understood. Thereby, two boreholes were set 3 m apart in the region of Celorico da Beira within post-tectonic biotitic granites of the Beiras Batolith. Continuous measurements were obtained with identical gamma-ray scintillometers deployed at depths of 1 and 6 m during a 6 month period in the years of 2014 and 2015. Temperature, relative humidity, pressure, rainfall, wind speed and direction were measured at the site, as well as temperature and relative humidity inside the boreholes, with the aim of assessing the influence of meteorological parameters on the temporal variability of gamma radiation at two distinct depths. Both time series display a complex temporal structure including multiyear, seasonal and daily variability. At 1 m depth, a daily periodicity on the gamma ray counts time series was noticed with daily maxima occurring most frequently from 8 to 12 p.m. and daily minima between 8 and 12 a.m.. At 6 m depth, maximum and minimum daily means occurred with approximately a 10 h lag from the above. Gamma radiation data exhibited fairly strong correlations with temperature and relative humidity, however, varying with depth. Gamma radiation counts increased with increasing temperature and decreasing relative humidity at 1 m depth, while at a 6 m depth the opposite was recorded, with counts increasing with relative humidity and decreasing with temperature. Wind speed was shown to be inversely related with counts at 6 m depth, while positively correlated at 1 m depth. Pressure and rainfall had minor effects on both short-term and long-term gamma radiation counts.

40 CFR 420.134 - New source performance standards (NSPS).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Source Performance Standards (NSPS) Pollutant Maximum daily 1 Maximum monthly avg. 1 TSS 0.00998 0.00465... operations. Subpart M—New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) Pollutant Maximum daily 1 Maximum monthly avg...

40 CFR 420.134 - New source performance standards (NSPS).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... Source Performance Standards (NSPS) Pollutant Maximum daily 1 Maximum monthly avg. 1 TSS 0.00998 0.00465... operations. Subpart M—New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) Pollutant Maximum daily 1 Maximum monthly avg...

VEMAP Phase 2 bioclimatic database. I. Gridded historical (20th century) climate for modeling ecosystem dynamics across the conterminous USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kittel, T.G.F.; Rosenbloom, N.A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Daly, Christopher; Gibson, W.P.; Fisher, H.H.; Thornton, P.; Yates, D.N.; Aulenbach, S.; Kaufman, C.; McKeown, R.; Bachelet, D.; Schimel, D.S.; Neilson, R.; Lenihan, J.; Drapek, R.; Ojima, D.S.; Parton, W.J.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Tian, H.; McGuire, A.D.; Sykes, M.T.; Smith, B.; Cowling, S.; Hickler, T.; Prentice, I.C.; Running, S.; Hibbard, K.A.; Post, W.M.; King, A.W.; Smith, T.; Rizzo, B.; Woodward, F.I.

2004-01-01

Analysis and simulation of biospheric responses to historical forcing require surface climate data that capture those aspects of climate that control ecological processes, including key spatial gradients and modes of temporal variability. We developed a multivariate, gridded historical climate dataset for the conterminous USA as a common input database for the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP), a biogeochemical and dynamic vegetation model intercomparison. The dataset covers the period 1895-1993 on a 0.5?? latitude/longitude grid. Climate is represented at both monthly and daily timesteps. Variables are: precipitation, mininimum and maximum temperature, total incident solar radiation, daylight-period irradiance, vapor pressure, and daylight-period relative humidity. The dataset was derived from US Historical Climate Network (HCN), cooperative network, and snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) monthly precipitation and mean minimum and maximum temperature station data. We employed techniques that rely on geostatistical and physical relationships to create the temporally and spatially complete dataset. We developed a local kriging prediction model to infill discontinuous and limited-length station records based on spatial autocorrelation structure of climate anomalies. A spatial interpolation model (PRISM) that accounts for physiographic controls was used to grid the infilled monthly station data. We implemented a stochastic weather generator (modified WGEN) to disaggregate the gridded monthly series to dailies. Radiation and humidity variables were estimated from the dailies using a physically-based empirical surface climate model (MTCLIM3). Derived datasets include a 100 yr model spin-up climate and a historical Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) dataset. The VEMAP dataset exhibits statistically significant trends in temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, vapor pressure, and PDSI for US National Assessment regions. The historical climate and companion datasets are available online at data archive centers. ?? Inter-Research 2004.

Multiple extreme environmental conditions of intermittent soda pans in the Carpathian Basin (Central Europe)

PubMed Central

Boros, Emil; Katalin, V.-Balogh; Vörös, Lajos; Horváth, Zsófia

2017-01-01

Soda lakes and pans represent saline ecosystems with unique chemical composition, occurring on all continents. The purpose of this study was to identify and characterise the main environmental gradients and trophic state that prevail in the soda pans (n=84) of the Carpathian Basin in Central Europe. Underwater light conditions, dissolved organic matter, phosphorus and chlorophyll a were investigated in 84 pans during 2009–2010. Besides, water temperature was measured hourly with an automatic sensor throughout one year in a selected pan. The pans were very shallow (median depth: 15 cm), and their extremely high turbidity (Secchi depth median: 3 cm, min: 0.5 cm) was caused by high concentrations of inorganic suspended solids (median: 0.4 g L–1, max: 16 g L–1), which was the dominant (>50%) contributing factor to the vertical attenuation coefficient in 67 pans (80%). All pans were polyhumic (median DOC: 47 mg L–1), and total phosphorus concentration was also extremely high (median: 2 mg L–1, max: 32 mg L–1). The daily water temperature maximum (44 °C) and fluctuation maximum (28 °C) were extremely high during summertime. The combination of environmental boundaries: shallowness, daily water temperature fluctuation, intermittent hydroperiod, high turbidity, polyhumic organic carbon concentration, high alkalinity and hypertrophy represent a unique extreme aquatic ecosystem. PMID:28572691

A model to forecast short-term snowmelt runoff using synoptic observations of streamflow, temperature, and precipitation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tangborn, Wendell V.

1980-01-01

Snowmelt runoff is forecast with a statistical model that utilizes daily values of stream discharge, gaged precipitation, and maximum and minimum observations of air temperature. Synoptic observations of these variables are made at existing low- and medium-altitude weather stations, thus eliminating the difficulties and expense of new, high-altitude installations. Four model development steps are used to demonstrate the influence on prediction accuracy of basin storage, a preforecast test season, air temperature (to estimate ablation), and a prediction based on storage. Daily ablation is determined by a technique that employs both mean temperature and a radiative index. Radiation (both long- and short-wave components) is approximated by using the range in daily temperature, which is shown to be closely related to mean cloud cover. A technique based on the relationship between prediction error and prediction season weather utilizes short-term forecasts of precipitation and temperature to improve the final prediction. Verification of the model is accomplished by a split sampling technique for the 1960–1977 period. Short- term (5–15 days) predictions of runoff throughout the main snowmelt season are demonstrated for mountain drainages in western Washington, south-central Arizona, western Montana, and central California. The coefficient of prediction (Cp) based on actual, short-term predictions for 18 years is for Thunder Creek (Washington), 0.69; for South Fork Flathead River (Montana), 0.45; for the Black River (Arizona), 0.80; and for the Kings River (California), 0.80.

The association between consecutive days' heat wave and cardiovascular disease mortality in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Yin, Qian; Wang, Jinfeng

2017-02-23

Although many studies have examined the effects of heat waves on the excess mortality risk (ER) posed by cardiovascular disease (CVD), scant attention has been paid to the effects of various combinations of differing heat wave temperatures and durations. We investigated such effects in Beijing, a city of over 20 million residents. A generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze the ER of consecutive days' exposure to extreme high temperatures. A key finding was that when extremely high temperatures occur continuously, at varying temperature thresholds and durations, the adverse effects on CVD mortality vary significantly. The longer the heat wave lasts, the greater the mortality risk is. When the daily maximum temperature exceeded 35 °C from the fourth day onward, the ER attributed to consecutive days' high temperature exposure saw an increase to about 10% (p < 0.05), and at the fifth day, the ER even reached 51%. For the thresholds of 32 °C, 33 °C, and 34 °C, from the fifth day onward, the ER also rose sharply (16, 29, and 31%, respectively; p < 0.05). In addition, extreme high temperatures appeared to contribute to a higher proportion of CVD deaths among elderly persons, females and outdoor workers. When the daily maximum temperature was higher than 33 °C from the tenth consecutive day onward, the ER of CVD death among these groups was 94, 104 and 149%, respectively (p < 0.05), which is considerably higher than the ER for the overall population (87%; p < 0.05). The results of this study may assist governments in setting standards for heat waves, creating more accurate heat alerts, and taking measures to prevent or reduce temperature-related deaths, especially against the backdrop of global warming.

Robust increase in extreme summer rainfall intensity during the past four decades observed in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Chan; Wu, Peili; Zhang, Lixia; Song, Lianchun

2016-12-01

Global warming increases the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere and consequently the potential risks of extreme rainfall. Here we show that maximum hourly summer rainfall intensity has increased by about 11.2% on average, using continuous hourly gauge records for 1971-2013 from 721 weather stations in China. The corresponding event accumulated precipitation has on average increased by more than 10% aided by a small positive trend in events duration. Linear regression of the 95th percentile daily precipitation intensity with daily mean surface air temperature shows a negative scaling of -9.6%/K, in contrast to a positive scaling of 10.6%/K for hourly data. This is made up of a positive scaling below the summer mean temperature and a negative scaling above. Using seasonal means instead of daily means, we find a consistent scaling rate for the region of 6.7-7%/K for both daily and hourly precipitation extremes, about 10% higher than the regional Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of 6.1%/K based on a mean temperature of 24.6 °C. With up to 18% further increase in extreme precipitation under continuing global warming towards the IPCC’s 1.5 °C target, risks of flash floods will exacerbate on top of the current incapability of urban drainage systems in a rapidly urbanizing China.

Attributing Historical Changes in Probabilities of Record-Breaking Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extreme Events

DOE PAGES

Shiogama, Hideo; Imada, Yukiko; Mori, Masato; ...

2016-08-07

Here, we describe two unprecedented large (100-member), longterm (61-year) ensembles based on MRI-AGCM3.2, which were driven by historical and non-warming climate forcing. These ensembles comprise the "Database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF)". We compare these ensembles to large ensembles based on another climate model, as well as to observed data, to investigate the influence of anthropogenic activities on historical changes in the numbers of record-breaking events, including: the annual coldest daily minimum temperature (TNn), the annual warmest daily maximum temperature (TXx) and the annual most intense daily precipitation event (Rx1day). These two climate model ensembles indicatemore » that human activity has already had statistically significant impacts on the number of record-breaking extreme events worldwide mainly in the Northern Hemisphere land. Specifically, human activities have altered the likelihood that a wider area globally would suffer record-breaking TNn, TXx and Rx1day events than that observed over the 2001- 2010 period by a factor of at least 0.6, 5.4 and 1.3, respectively. However, we also find that the estimated spatial patterns and amplitudes of anthropogenic impacts on the probabilities of record-breaking events are sensitive to the climate model and/or natural-world boundary conditions used in the attribution studies.« less

Semiparametric Modeling of Daily Ammonia Levels in Naturally Ventilated Caged-Egg Facilities

PubMed Central

Gutiérrez-Zapata, Diana María; Galeano-Vasco, Luis Fernando; Cerón-Muñoz, Mario Fernando

2016-01-01

Ammonia concentration (AMC) in poultry facilities varies depending on different environmental conditions and management; however, this is a relatively unexplored subject in Colombia (South America). The objective of this study was to model daily AMC variations in a naturally ventilated caged-egg facility using generalized additive models. Four sensor nodes were used to record AMC, temperature, relative humidity and wind speed on a daily basis, with 10 minute intervals for 12 weeks. The following variables were included in the model: Heat index, Wind, Hour, Location, Height of the sensor to the ground level, and Period of manure accumulation. All effects included in the model were highly significant (p<0.001). The AMC was higher during the night and early morning when the wind was not blowing (0.0 m/s) and the heat index was extreme. The average and maximum AMC were 5.94±3.83 and 31.70 ppm, respectively. Temperatures above 25°C and humidity greater than 80% increased AMC levels. In naturally ventilated caged-egg facilities the daily variations observed in AMC primarily depend on cyclic variations of the environmental conditions and are also affected by litter handling (i.e., removal of the bedding material). PMID:26812150

Analysis on temporal and spatial distribution of reference evapotranspiration and its possible influencing factors in Yunnan Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yashan; Nan, Lijun; Wang, Yanjun; Xu, Chengdong; Yang, Yunyuan; Cui, Changwei; Yang, Junmei; Guo, Yuan; Li, Miaorong

2018-04-01

This article was based on the climate data of 125 meteorological stations from 1982 to 2011 in Yunnan Province, the daily basis ET0 was calculated with Penman-Monteith equation recommended by FAO in 1998. Then the Kriging interpolation method and related methods of climate statistical diagnosis analysis were used to analyze the features. The main results showed that the highest value of annual ET0 of Yunnan Province was the joint parts of Dali, Lijiang and Chuxiong, and also the north of Chuxiong and Kunming, while the least value was the northeast and northwest of Yunnan Province. The ET0 was showed rising trend, the speed was about 5.9mm/10a, but the rising trend was not significant. The ET0 of spring was highest, and the ET0 of summer and autumn was taken the second place, the ET0 of winter was last. The ET0 of spring, summer, autumn, winter was account for 33.35 per cent, 28.91 per cent, 20.36, per cent, 17.39 per cent of annual ET0 respectively. The ET0 of May was highest and December was least in annual. ET0 was closely related to wind speed, relative humidity, hours of sunshine and the daily maximum temperature. The correlation between wind speed, hours of sunshine, the daily maximum temperature and ET0 was very significantly positive, while the correlation between relative humidity and ET0 was very significantly negative.

Thermoperiodism and the thermal environment of the pitcher-plant mosquito, Wyeomyia smithii.

PubMed

Bradshaw, William E

1980-07-01

Wyeomyia smithii Coq. (Diptera: Culicidae) completes its pre-adult development only within leaves of the purple pitcher-plant, Sarracenia purpurea. Between early June and mid-October in northern New York State, the daily temperature cycle in leaves lagged the photic cycle by 0-6 h and exhibited a mean daily amplitude of 14.5°C.Thermoperiod acts as a potent zeitgeber. At constant temperatures, W. smithii respond to the shorter dark period of a symmetric skeleton photoperiod as "day". However, a superimposed thermoperiod having the thermophase coincident with the longer dark period overrides this tendancy. Thermoperiods may also perturb the photoperiodic clock but W. smithii compensate for the range of phase relationships between the photic and thermal cycles observed in nature.Compared with constant temperatures, W. smithii develop more slowly but exhibit a 7-fold increase in fecundity when reared under fluctuating temperatures. The net result is a 50% greater capacity for increase in the latter regimen. These results suggest that maximum fitness in W. smithii is achieved through the action of, and not despite, thermal heterogeneity.

Impact of downward-mixing ozone on surface ozone accumulation in southern Taiwan.

PubMed

Lin, Ching-Ho

2008-04-01

The ozone that initially presents in the previous day's afternoon mixing layer can remain in the nighttime atmosphere and then be carried over to the next morning. Finally, this ozone can be brought to the ground by downward mixing as mixing depth increases during the daytime, thereby increasing surface ozone concentrations. Variation of ozone concentration during each of these periods is investigated in this work. First, ozone concentrations existing in the daily early morning atmosphere at the altitude range of the daily maximum mixing depth (residual ozone concentrations) were measured using tethered ozonesondes on 52 experimental days during 2004-2005 in southern Taiwan. Daily downward-mixing ozone concentrations were calculated by a box model coupling the measured daily residual ozone concentrations and daily mixing depth variations. The ozone concentrations upwind in the previous day's afternoon mixing layer were estimated by the combination of back air trajectory analysis and known previous day's surface ozone distributions. Additionally, the relationship between daily downward-mixing ozone concentration and daily photochemically produced ozone concentration was examined. The latter was calculated by removing the former from daily surface maximum ozone concentration. The measured daily residual ozone concentrations distributed at 12-74 parts per billion (ppb) with an average of 42 +/- 17 ppb are well correlated with the previous upwind ozone concentration (R2 = 0.54-0.65). Approximately 60% of the previous upwind ozone was estimated to be carried over to the next morning and became the observed residual ozone. The daily downward-mixing ozone contributes 48 +/- 18% of the daily surface maximum ozone concentration, indicating that the downward-mixing ozone is as important as daily photochemically produced ozone to daily surface maximum ozone accumulation. The daily downward-mixing ozone is poorly correlated with the daily photochemically produced ozone and contributes significantly to the daily variation of surface maximum ozone concentrations (R2 = 0.19). However, the contribution of downward-mixing ozone to daily ozone variation is not included in most existing statistical models developed for predicting daily ozone variation. Finally, daily surface maximum ozone concentration is positively correlated with daily afternoon mixing depth, attributable to the downward-mixing ozone.

ANN based Real-Time Estimation of Power Generation of Different PV Module Types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syafaruddin; Karatepe, Engin; Hiyama, Takashi

Distributed generation is expected to become more important in the future generation system. Utilities need to find solutions that help manage resources more efficiently. Effective smart grid solutions have been experienced by using real-time data to help refine and pinpoint inefficiencies for maintaining secure and reliable operating conditions. This paper proposes the application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for the real-time estimation of the maximum power generation of PV modules of different technologies. An intelligent technique is necessary required in this case due to the relationship between the maximum power of PV modules and the open circuit voltage and temperature is nonlinear and can't be easily expressed by an analytical expression for each technology. The proposed ANN method is using input signals of open circuit voltage and cell temperature instead of irradiance and ambient temperature to determine the estimated maximum power generation of PV modules. It is important for the utility to have the capability to perform this estimation for optimal operating points and diagnostic purposes that may be an early indicator of a need for maintenance and optimal energy management. The proposed method is accurately verified through a developed real-time simulator on the daily basis of irradiance and cell temperature changes.

Accuracy assessment of a net radiation and temperature index snowmelt model using ground observations of snow water equivalent in an alpine basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molotch, N. P.; Painter, T. H.; Bales, R. C.; Dozier, J.

2003-04-01

In this study, an accumulated net radiation / accumulated degree-day index snowmelt model was coupled with remotely sensed snow covered area (SCA) data to simulate snow cover depletion and reconstruct maximum snow water equivalent (SWE) in the 19.1-km2 Tokopah Basin of the Sierra Nevada, California. Simple net radiation snowmelt models are attractive for operational snowmelt runoff forecasts as they are computationally inexpensive and have low input requirements relative to physically based energy balance models. The objective of this research was to assess the accuracy of a simple net radiation snowmelt model in a topographically heterogeneous alpine environment. Previous applications of net radiation / temperature index snowmelt models have not been evaluated in alpine terrain with intensive field observations of SWE. Solar radiation data from two meteorological stations were distributed using the topographic radiation model TOPORAD. Relative humidity and temperature data were distributed based on the lapse rate calculated between three meteorological stations within the basin. Fractional SCA data from the Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper (5 acquisitions) and the Airborne Visible and Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) (2 acquisitions) were used to derive daily SCA using a linear regression between acquisition dates. Grain size data from AVIRIS (4 acquisitions) were used to infer snow surface albedo and interpolated linearly with time to derive daily albedo values. Modeled daily snowmelt rates for each 30-m pixel were scaled by the SCA and integrated over the snowmelt season to obtain estimates of maximum SWE accumulation. Snow surveys consisting of an average of 335 depth measurements and 53 density measurements during April, May and June, 1997 were interpolated using a regression tree / co-krig model, with independent variables of average incoming solar radiation, elevation, slope and maximum upwind slope. The basin was clustered into 7 elevation / average-solar-radiation zones for SWE accuracy assessment. Model simulations did a poor job at estimating the spatial distribution of SWE. Basin clusters where the solar radiative flux dominated the melt flux were simulated more accurately than those dominated by the turbulent fluxes or the longwave radiative flux.

Estimating daily minimum, maximum, and mean near surface air temperature using hybrid satellite models across Israel.

PubMed

Rosenfeld, Adar; Dorman, Michael; Schwartz, Joel; Novack, Victor; Just, Allan C; Kloog, Itai

2017-11-01

Meteorological stations measure air temperature (Ta) accurately with high temporal resolution, but usually suffer from limited spatial resolution due to their sparse distribution across rural, undeveloped or less populated areas. Remote sensing satellite-based measurements provide daily surface temperature (Ts) data in high spatial and temporal resolution and can improve the estimation of daily Ta. In this study we developed spatiotemporally resolved models which allow us to predict three daily parameters: Ta Max (day time), 24h mean, and Ta Min (night time) on a fine 1km grid across the state of Israel. We used and compared both the Aqua and Terra MODIS satellites. We used linear mixed effect models, IDW (inverse distance weighted) interpolations and thin plate splines (using a smooth nonparametric function of longitude and latitude) to first calibrate between Ts and Ta in those locations where we have available data for both and used that calibration to fill in neighboring cells without surface monitors or missing Ts. Out-of-sample ten-fold cross validation (CV) was used to quantify the accuracy of our predictions. Our model performance was excellent for both days with and without available Ts observations for both Aqua and Terra (CV Aqua R 2 results for min 0.966, mean 0.986, and max 0.967; CV Terra R 2 results for min 0.965, mean 0.987, and max 0.968). Our research shows that daily min, mean and max Ta can be reliably predicted using daily MODIS Ts data even across Israel, with high accuracy even for days without Ta or Ts data. These predictions can be used as three separate Ta exposures in epidemiology studies for better diurnal exposure assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatiotemporal extremes of temperature and precipitation during 1960-2015 in the Yangtze River Basin (China) and impacts on vegetation dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Lifang; Wang, Lunche; Qu, Sai; Singh, Ramesh P.; Lai, Zhongping; Yao, Rui

2018-05-01

Recently, extreme climate variation has been studied in different parts of the world, and the present study aims to study the impacts of climate extremes on vegetation. In this study, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of temperature and precipitation extremes during 1960-2015 in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test with Sen's slope estimator and kriging interpolation method based on daily precipitation (P), maximum temperature (T max), and minimum temperature (T min). We also analyzed the vegetation dynamics in the YRB during 1982-2015 using Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) datasets and investigated the relationship between temperature and precipitation extremes and NDVI using Pearson correlation coefficients. The results showed a pronounced increase in the annual mean maximum temperature (T nav) and mean minimum temperature (T xav) at the rate of 0.23 °C/10 years and 0.15 °C/10 years, respectively, during 1960-2015. In addition, the occurrence of warm days and warm nights shows increasing trends at the rate of 1.36 days/10 years and 1.70 days/10 years, respectively, while cold days and cold nights decreased at the rate of 1.09 days/10 years and 2.69 days/10 years, respectively, during 1960-2015. The precipitation extremes, such as very wet days (R95, the 95th percentile of daily precipitation events), very wet day precipitation (R95p, the number of days with rainfall above R95), rainstorm (R50, the number of days with rainfall above 50 mm), and maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1day), all show pronounced increasing trends during 1960-2015. In general, annual mean NDVI over the whole YRB increased at the rate of 0.01/10 years during 1982-2015, with an increasing transition around 1994. Spatially, annual mean NDVI increased in the northern, eastern, and parts of southwestern YRB, while it decreased in the YRD and parts of southern YRB during 1982-2015. The correlation coefficients showed that annual mean NDVI was closely correlated with temperature extremes during 1982-2015 and 1995-2015, but no significant correlation with precipitation extremes was observed. However, the decrease in NDVI was correlated with increasing R95p and R95 during 1982-1994.

Daily torpor and hibernation in birds and mammals

PubMed Central

RUF, THOMAS; GEISER, FRITZ

2014-01-01

Many birds and mammals drastically reduce their energy expenditure during times of cold exposure, food shortage, or drought, by temporarily abandoning euthermia, i.e., the maintenance of high body temperatures. Traditionally, two different types of heterothermy, i.e., hypometabolic states associated with low body temperatures (torpor), have been distinguished: Daily torpor, which lasts less than 24 h and is accompanied by continued foraging, versus hibernation, with torpor bouts lasting consecutive days to several weeks in animals that usually do not forage but rely on energy stores, either food caches or body energy reserves. This classification of torpor types has been challenged however, suggesting that these phenotypes may merely represent the extremes in a continuum of traits. Here, we investigate whether variables of torpor in 214 species, 43 birds and 171 mammals form a continuum or a bimodal distribution. We use Gaussian-mixture cluster analysis as well as phylogenetically informed regressions to quantitatively assess the distinction between hibernation and daily torpor and to evaluate the impact of body mass and geographical distribution of species on torpor traits. Cluster analysis clearly confirmed the classical distinction between daily torpor and hibernation. Overall, heterothermic endotherms are small on average, but hibernators are significantly heavier than daily heterotherms and also are distributed at higher average latitudes (~35°) than daily heterotherms (~25°). Variables of torpor for an average 30-g heterotherm differed significantly between daily heterotherms and hibernators. Average maximum torpor bout duration was >30-fold longer, and mean torpor bout duration >25-fold longer in hibernators. Mean minimum body temperature differed by ~13°C, and the mean minimum torpor metabolic rate was ~35% of the BMR in daily heterotherms but only 6% of basal metabolic rate in hibernators. Consequently, our analysis strongly supports the view that hibernators and daily heterotherms are functionally distinct groups that probably have been subject to disruptive selection. Arguably, the primary physiological difference between daily torpor and hibernation, which leads to a variety of derived further distinct characteristics, is the temporal control of entry into and arousal from torpor, which is governed by the circadian clock in daily heterotherms, but apparently not in hibernators. PMID:25123049

Time-series Analysis of Heat Waves and Emergency Department Visits in Atlanta, 1993 to 2012

PubMed Central

Chen, Tianqi; Sarnat, Stefanie E.; Grundstein, Andrew J.; Winquist, Andrea

2017-01-01

Background: Heat waves are extreme weather events that have been associated with adverse health outcomes. However, there is limited knowledge of heat waves’ impact on population morbidity, such as emergency department (ED) visits. Objectives: We investigated associations between heat waves and ED visits for 17 outcomes in Atlanta over a 20-year period, 1993–2012. Methods: Associations were estimated using Poisson log-linear models controlling for continuous air temperature, dew-point temperature, day of week, holidays, and time trends. We defined heat waves as periods of ≥2 consecutive days with temperatures beyond the 98th percentile of the temperature distribution over the period from 1945–2012. We considered six heat wave definitions using maximum, minimum, and average air temperatures and apparent temperatures. Associations by heat wave characteristics were examined. Results: Among all outcome-heat wave combinations, associations were strongest between ED visits for acute renal failure and heat waves defined by maximum apparent temperature at lag 0 [relative risk (RR) = 1.15; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03–1.29], ED visits for ischemic stroke and heat waves defined by minimum temperature at lag 0 (RR = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.02–1.17), and ED visits for intestinal infection and heat waves defined by average temperature at lag 1 (RR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.00–1.21). ED visits for all internal causes were associated with heat waves defined by maximum temperature at lag 1 (RR = 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.04). Conclusions: Heat waves can confer additional risks of ED visits beyond those of daily air temperature, even in a region with high air-conditioning prevalence. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP44 PMID:28599264

Time-series Analysis of Heat Waves and Emergency Department Visits in Atlanta, 1993 to 2012.

PubMed

Chen, Tianqi; Sarnat, Stefanie E; Grundstein, Andrew J; Winquist, Andrea; Chang, Howard H

2017-05-31

Heat waves are extreme weather events that have been associated with adverse health outcomes. However, there is limited knowledge of heat waves' impact on population morbidity, such as emergency department (ED) visits. We investigated associations between heat waves and ED visits for 17 outcomes in Atlanta over a 20-year period, 1993-2012. Associations were estimated using Poisson log-linear models controlling for continuous air temperature, dew-point temperature, day of week, holidays, and time trends. We defined heat waves as periods of consecutive days with temperatures beyond the 98th percentile of the temperature distribution over the period from 1945-2012. We considered six heat wave definitions using maximum, minimum, and average air temperatures and apparent temperatures. Associations by heat wave characteristics were examined. Among all outcome-heat wave combinations, associations were strongest between ED visits for acute renal failure and heat waves defined by maximum apparent temperature at lag 0 [relative risk (RR) = 1.15; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03-1.29], ED visits for ischemic stroke and heat waves defined by minimum temperature at lag 0 (RR = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.02-1.17), and ED visits for intestinal infection and heat waves defined by average temperature at lag 1 (RR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.00-1.21). ED visits for all internal causes were associated with heat waves defined by maximum temperature at lag 1 (RR = 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.04). Heat waves can confer additional risks of ED visits beyond those of daily air temperature, even in a region with high air-conditioning prevalence. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP44.

Patterns of parasite transmission in polar seas: Daily rhythms of cercarial emergence from intertidal snails

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prokofiev, Vladimir V.; Galaktionov, Kirill V.; Levakin, Ivan A.

2016-07-01

Trematodes are common parasites in intertidal ecosystems. Cercariae, their dispersive larvae, ensure transmission of infection from the first intermediate molluscan host to the second intermediate (invertebrates and fishes) or the final (fishes, marine birds and mammals) host. Trematode transmission in polar seas, while interesting in many respects, is poorly studied. This study aimed to elucidate the patterns of cercarial emergence from intertidal snails at the White Sea and Barents Sea. The study, involving cercariae of 12 species, has provided the most extensive material obtained so far in high latitude seas (66-69° N). The experiments were conducted in situ. Multichannel singular spectral analysis (MSSA) used for processing primary data made it possible to estimate the relative contribution of different oscillations into the analysed time series and to separate the daily component from the other oscillatory components and the noise. Cercarial emergence had pronounced daily rhythms, which did not depend on the daily tidal schedule but were regulated by thermo- and photoperiod. Daily emergence maximums coincided with periods favourable for infecting the second intermediate hosts. Cercarial daily emergence rhythms differed in species using the same molluscan hosts which can be explained by cercarial host searching behaviour. Daily cercarial output (DCO) correlated negatively with larval volume and positively with that of the molluscan host except in cercariae using ambuscade behaviour. In the Barents Sea cercariae emerged from their molluscan hosts at lower temperatures than in the warmer White Sea but the daily emergence period was prolonged. Thus, DCO of related species were similar in these two seas and comparable with DCO values reported for boreal seas. Local temperature adaptations in cercarial emergence suggests that in case of Arctic climate warming trematode transmission in coastal ecosystems is likely to be intensified not because of the increased summer temperature but because of the prolongation of the warm season favouring cercarial emergence (transmission window).

Estimation of Surface Air Temperature Over Central and Eastern Eurasia from MODIS Land Surface Temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Suhung; Leptoukh, Gregory G.

2011-01-01

Surface air temperature (T(sub a)) is a critical variable in the energy and water cycle of the Earth.atmosphere system and is a key input element for hydrology and land surface models. This is a preliminary study to evaluate estimation of T(sub a) from satellite remotely sensed land surface temperature (T(sub s)) by using MODIS-Terra data over two Eurasia regions: northern China and fUSSR. High correlations are observed in both regions between station-measured T(sub a) and MODIS T(sub s). The relationships between the maximum T(sub a) and daytime T(sub s) depend significantly on land cover types, but the minimum T(sub a) and nighttime T(sub s) have little dependence on the land cover types. The largest difference between maximum T(sub a) and daytime T(sub s) appears over the barren and sparsely vegetated area during the summer time. Using a linear regression method, the daily maximum T(sub a) were estimated from 1 km resolution MODIS T(sub s) under clear-sky conditions with coefficients calculated based on land cover types, while the minimum T(sub a) were estimated without considering land cover types. The uncertainty, mean absolute error (MAE), of the estimated maximum T(sub a) varies from 2.4 C over closed shrublands to 3.2 C over grasslands, and the MAE of the estimated minimum Ta is about 3.0 C.

Downscaling GCM Output with Genetic Programming Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, X.; Dibike, Y. B.; Coulibaly, P.

2004-05-01

Climate change impact studies on watershed hydrology require reliable data at appropriate spatial and temporal resolution. However, the outputs of the current global climate models (GCMs) cannot be used directly because GCM do not provide hourly or daily precipitation and temperature reliable enough for hydrological modeling. Nevertheless, we can get more reliable data corresponding to future climate scenarios derived from GCM outputs using the so called 'downscaling techniques'. This study applies Genetic Programming (GP) based technique to downscale daily precipitation and temperature values at the Chute-du-Diable basin of the Saguenay watershed in Canada. In applying GP downscaling technique, the objective is to find a relationship between the large-scale predictor variables (NCEP data which provide daily information concerning the observed large-scale state of the atmosphere) and the predictand (meteorological data which describes conditions at the site scale). The selection of the most relevant predictor variables is achieved using the Pearson's coefficient of determination ( R2) (between the large-scale predictor variables and the daily meteorological data). In this case, the period (1961 - 2000) is identified to represent the current climate condition. For the forty years of data, the first 30 years (1961-1990) are considered for calibrating the models while the remaining ten years of data (1991-2000) are used to validate those models. In general, the R2 between the predictor variables and each predictand is very low in case of precipitation compared to that of maximum and minimum temperature. Moreover, the strength of individual predictors varies for every month and for each GP grammar. Therefore, the most appropriate combination of predictors has to be chosen by looking at the output analysis of all the twelve months and the different GP grammars. During the calibration of the GP model for precipitation downscaling, in addition to the mean daily precipitation and daily precipitation variability for each month, monthly average dry and wet-spell lengths are also considered as performance criteria. For the cases of Tmax and Tmin, means and variances of these variables corresponding to each month were considered as performance criteria. The GP downscaling results show satisfactory agreement between the observed daily temperature (Tmax and Tmin) and the simulated temperature. However, the downscaling results for the daily precipitation still require some improvement - suggesting further investigation of other grammars. KEY WORDS: Climate change; GP downscaling; GCM.

Daily variations in weather and the relationship with physical activity and sedentary time in European 10- to 12-year-olds: The ENERGY-Project.

PubMed

Yildirim, Mine; Schoeni, Anna; Singh, Amika S; Altenburg, Teatske M; Brug, Johannes; De Bourdeaudhuij, Ilse; Kovacs, Eva; Bringolf-Isler, Bettina; Manios, Yannis; Chinapaw M, J M

2014-02-01

The aim of the study was to examine the association of daily variations in rainfall and temperature with sedentary time (ST) and physical activity (PA) in European children. Children were included from 5 countries (Belgium, Greece, Hungary, the Netherlands, Switzerland) as part of the ENERGY-project. We used cross-sectional data from 722 children aged 10-12 years (47% boys). ST and PA were measured by accelerometers for 6 consecutive days, including weekend days. Weather data were collected from online national weather reports. Multilevel regression models were used for data analyses. Maximum temperature was positively associated with light PA (β = 3.1 min/day; 95% CI = 2.4-3.8), moderate-to-vigorous PA (β = 0.6 min/day; 95% CI = 0.4-0.8), and average PA [β = 4.1 counts per minute (cpm); 95% CI = 1.6-6.5, quadratic relationship]. Rainfall was inversely and quadratically associated with light PA (β = -1.3 min/day; 95% CI = -1.9 to -0.6), moderate-to-vigorous PA (β = -0.6 min/day; 95% CI = -0.8 to -0.3), and average PA (β = -1.6 cpm; 95% CI = -2.2 to -0.9). Maximum temperature was not significantly associated with ST (β = -0.2 min/day; 95% CI = -1.0 to 0.6), while rainfall was positively associated with ST (β = 0.9 min/day; 95% CI = 0.6-1.3). The current study shows that temperature and rainfall are significantly associated with PA and ST in 10- to 12-year-old European children.

A model for predicting Xanthomonas arboricola pv. pruni growth as a function of temperature

PubMed Central

Llorente, Isidre; Montesinos, Emilio; Moragrega, Concepció

2017-01-01

A two-step modeling approach was used for predicting the effect of temperature on the growth of Xanthomonas arboricola pv. pruni, causal agent of bacterial spot disease of stone fruit. The in vitro growth of seven strains was monitored at temperatures from 5 to 35°C with a Bioscreen C system, and a calibrating equation was generated for converting optical densities to viable counts. In primary modeling, Baranyi, Buchanan, and modified Gompertz equations were fitted to viable count growth curves over the entire temperature range. The modified Gompertz model showed the best fit to the data, and it was selected to estimate the bacterial growth parameters at each temperature. Secondary modeling of maximum specific growth rate as a function of temperature was performed by using the Ratkowsky model and its variations. The modified Ratkowsky model showed the best goodness of fit to maximum specific growth rate estimates, and it was validated successfully for the seven strains at four additional temperatures. The model generated in this work will be used for predicting temperature-based Xanthomonas arboricola pv. pruni growth rate and derived potential daily doublings, and included as the inoculum potential component of a bacterial spot of stone fruit disease forecaster. PMID:28493954

Daily Weather and Children's Physical Activity Patterns.

PubMed

Remmers, Teun; Thijs, Carel; Timperio, Anna; Salmon, J O; Veitch, Jenny; Kremers, Stef P J; Ridgers, Nicola D

2017-05-01

Understanding how the weather affects physical activity (PA) may help in the design, analysis, and interpretation of future studies, especially when investigating PA across diverse meteorological settings and with long follow-up periods. The present longitudinal study first aims to examine the influence of daily weather elements on intraindividual PA patterns among primary school children across four seasons, reflecting day-to-day variation within each season. Second, we investigate whether the influence of weather elements differs by day of the week (weekdays vs weekends), gender, age, and body mass index. PA data were collected by ActiGraph accelerometers for 1 wk in each of four school terms that reflect each season in southeast Australia. PA data from 307 children (age range 8.7-12.8 yr) were matched to daily meteorological variables obtained from the Australian Government's Bureau of Meteorology (maximum temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, day length, and rainfall). Daily PA patterns and their association with weather elements were analyzed using multilevel linear mixed models. Temperature was the strongest predictor of moderate and vigorous PA, followed by solar radiation and humidity. The relation with temperature was curvilinear, showing optimum PA levels at temperatures between 20°C and 22°C. Associations between weather elements on PA did not differ by gender, child's age, or body mass index. This novel study focused on the influence of weather elements on intraindividual PA patterns in children. As weather influences cannot be controlled, knowledge of its effect on individual PA patterns may help in the design of future studies, interpretation of their results, and translation into PA promotion.

Development of a guideline on vegetation area to reduce the risk of weed pollinosis in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rang Kim, Kyu; Lee, Hye-Rim; Kim, Mijin; Baek, Won-ki; Oh, Jae-Won; Choi, Young-Jean; Jung, Hyun-Sook

2013-04-01

Allergenic pollens are influenced by the environmental conditions so that the daily number of pollens varies by temperature, humidity, wind speed, etc. The relationship between the daily pollens and meteorological conditions were determined and utilized to forecast daily risk level of pollen allergy in Korea. Another important factor for the daily risk level of pollens is the vegetation area of the allergenic plants. In this study, the relationship between the area and pollen concentration was identified for two major weed species: Ragweed and Japanese Hop. It was then utilized to determine the upper limit of vegetation area to confine the risk level to a certain degree in the field. Three sites with different levels of pollen concentration were selected among twelve pollen observation sites in Korea based on the historical observation of the weed pollens. The vegetation area of the two weed species within four square kilometers at each site was surveyed. The maximum daily pollen concentration was highly correlated with the vegetation area and it was selected as a dependent variable for the regression equations, which were used as the guideline for vegetation area. According to the guideline, to limit the maximum daily pollen concentration under the moderate risk level or less than 50 pollen grains per cubic meter for Ragweed, the vegetation area should remain less than 0.6% of the ground area. For the moderate risk of Japanese Hop, pollen grains should be limited less than 100 and the area be less than 0.4%.

Temperature variability during delirium in ICU patients: an observational study.

PubMed

van der Kooi, Arendina W; Kappen, Teus H; Raijmakers, Rosa J; Zaal, Irene J; Slooter, Arjen J C

2013-01-01

Delirium is an acute disturbance of consciousness and cognition. It is a common disorder in the intensive care unit (ICU) and associated with impaired long-term outcome. Despite its frequency and impact, delirium is poorly recognized by ICU-physicians and -nurses using delirium screening tools. A completely new approach to detect delirium is to use monitoring of physiological alterations. Temperature variability, a measure for temperature regulation, could be an interesting component to monitor delirium, but whether temperature regulation is different during ICU delirium has not yet been investigated. The aim of this study was to investigate whether ICU delirium is related to temperature variability. Furthermore, we investigated whether ICU delirium is related to absolute body temperature. We included patients who experienced both delirium and delirium free days during ICU stay, based on the Confusion Assessment method for the ICU conducted by a research- physician or -nurse, in combination with inspection of medical records. We excluded patients with conditions affecting thermal regulation or therapies affecting body temperature. Daily temperature variability was determined by computing the mean absolute second derivative of the temperature signal. Temperature variability (primary outcome) and absolute body temperature (secondary outcome) were compared between delirium- and non-delirium days with a linear mixed model and adjusted for daily mean Richmond Agitation and Sedation Scale scores and daily maximum Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores. Temperature variability was increased during delirium-days compared to days without delirium (β(unadjuste)d=0.007, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.004 to 0.011, p<0.001). Adjustment for confounders did not alter this result (β(adjusted)=0.005, 95% CI=0.002 to 0.008, p<0.001). Delirium was not associated with absolute body temperature (β(unadjusted)=-0.03, 95% CI=-0.17 to 0.10, p=0.61). This did not change after adjusting for confounders (β(adjusted)=-0.03, 95% CI=-0.17 to 0.10, p=0.63). Our study suggests that temperature variability is increased during ICU delirium.

Reduced diurnal temperature range does not change warming impacts on ecosystem carbon balance of Mediterranean grassland mesocosms

DOE PAGES

Phillips, Claire L.; Gregg, Jillian W.; Wilson, John K.

2011-11-01

Daily minimum temperature (T min) has increased faster than daily maximum temperature (T max) in many parts of the world, leading to decreases in diurnal temperature range (DTR). Projections suggest these trends are likely to continue in many regions, particularly northern latitudes and in arid regions. Despite wide speculation that asymmetric warming has different impacts on plant and ecosystem production than equal-night-and-day warming, there has been little direct comparison of these scenarios. Reduced DTR has also been widely misinterpreted as a result of night-only warming, when in fact T min occurs near dawn, indicating higher morning as well as nightmore » temperatures. We report on the first experiment to examine ecosystem-scale impacts of faster increases in T min than T max, using precise temperature controls to create realistic diurnal temperature profiles with gradual day-night temperature transitions and elevated early morning as well as night temperatures. Studying a constructed grassland ecosystem containing species native to Oregon, USA, we found the ecosystem lost more carbon at elevated than ambient temperatures, but was unaffected by the 3ºC difference in DTR between symmetric warming (constantly ambient +3.5ºC) and asymmetric warming (dawn T min=ambient +5ºC, afternoon T max= ambient +2ºC). Reducing DTR had no apparent effect on photosynthesis, likely because temperatures were most different in the morning and late afternoon when light was low. Respiration was also similar in both warming treatments, because respiration temperature sensitivity was not sufficient to respond to the limited temperature differences between asymmetric and symmetric warming. We concluded that changes in daily mean temperatures, rather than changes in T min/T max, were sufficient for predicting ecosystem carbon fluxes in this reconstructed Mediterranean grassland system.« less

Effects of climate change on daily minimum and maximum temperatures and cloudiness in the Shikoku region: a statistical downscaling model approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tatsumi, Kenichi; Oizumi, Tsutao; Yamashiki, Yosuke

2015-04-01

In this study, we present a detailed analysis of the effect of changes in cloudiness (CLD) between a future period (2071-2099) and the base period (1961-1990) on daily minimum temperature (TMIN) and maximum temperature (TMAX) in the same period for the Shikoku region, Japan. This analysis was performed using climate data obtained with the use of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). We calibrated the SDSM using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for the SDSM input and daily time series of temperature and CLD from 10 surface data points (SDP) in Shikoku. Subsequently, we validated the SDSM outputs, specifically, TMIN, TMAX, and CLD, obtained with the use of the NCEP reanalysis dataset and general circulation model (GCM) data against the SDP. The GCM data used in the validation procedure were those from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) for the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios and from the third generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) for the SRES A2 and A1B scenarios. Finally, the validated SDSM was run to study the effect of future changes in CLD on TMIN and TMAX. Our analysis showed that (1) the negative linear fit between changes in TMAX and those in CLD was statistically significant in winter while the relationship between the two changes was not evident in summer, (2) the dependency of future changes in TMAX and TMIN on future changes in CLD were more evident in winter than in other seasons with the present SDSM, (3) the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased in the southern part of Shikoku in summer in all the SDSM projections while DTR increased in the northern part of Shikoku in the same season in these projections, (4) the dependencies of changes in DTR on changes in CLD were unclear in summer and winter. Results of the SDSM simulations performed for climate change scenarios such as those from this study contribute to local-scale agricultural and hydrological simulations and development of agricultural and hydrological models.

Turning up the heat: increasing temperature and coral bleaching at the high latitude coral reefs of the Houtman Abrolhos Islands.

PubMed

Abdo, David A; Bellchambers, Lynda M; Evans, Scott N

2012-01-01

Coral reefs face increasing pressures particularly when on the edge of their distributions. The Houtman Abrolhos Islands (Abrolhos) are the southernmost coral reef system in the Indian Ocean, and one of the highest latitude reefs in the world. These reefs have a unique mix of tropical and temperate marine fauna and flora and support 184 species of coral, dominated by Acropora species. A significant La Niña event during 2011 produced anomalous conditions of increased temperature along the whole Western Australian coastline, producing the first-recorded widespread bleaching of corals at the Abrolhos. We examined long term trends in the marine climate at the Abrolhos using historical sea surface temperature data (HadISST data set) from 1900-2011. In addition in situ water temperature data for the Abrolhos (from data loggers installed in 2008, across four island groups) were used to determine temperature exposure profiles. Coupled with the results of coral cover surveys conducted annually since 2007; we calculated bleaching thresholds for monitoring sites across the four Abrolhos groups. In situ temperature data revealed maximum daily water temperatures reached 29.54°C in March 2011 which is 4.2°C above mean maximum daily temperatures (2008-2010). The level of bleaching varied across sites with an average of ∼12% of corals bleached. Mortality was high, with a mean ∼50% following the 2011 bleaching event. Prior to 2011, summer temperatures reached a mean (across all monitoring sites) of 25.1°C for 2.5 days. However, in 2011 temperatures reached a mean of 28.1°C for 3.3 days. Longer term trends (1900-2011) showed mean annual sea surface temperatures increase by 0.01°C per annum. Long-term temperature data along with short-term peaks in 2011, outline the potential for corals to be exposed to more frequent bleaching risk with consequences for this high latitude coral reef system at the edge of its distribution.

Relationships between maximum temperature and heat-related illness across North Carolina, USA.

PubMed

Sugg, Margaret M; Konrad, Charles E; Fuhrmann, Christopher M

2016-05-01

Heat kills more people than any other weather-related event in the USA, resulting in hundreds of fatalities each year. In North Carolina, heat-related illness accounts for over 2,000 yearly emergency department admissions. In this study, data on emergency department (ED) visits for heat-related illness (HRI) were obtained from the North Carolina Disease Event Tracking and Epidemiologic Collection Tool to identify spatiotemporal relationships between temperature and morbidity across six warm seasons (May-September) from 2007 to 2012. Spatiotemporal relationships are explored across different regions (e.g., coastal plain, rural) and demographics (e.g., gender, age) to determine the differential impact of heat stress on populations. This research reveals that most cases of HRI occur on days with climatologically normal temperatures (e.g., 31 to 35 °C); however, HRI rates increase substantially on days with abnormally high daily maximum temperatures (e.g., 31 to 38 °C). HRI ED visits decreased on days with extreme heat (e.g., greater than 38 °C), suggesting that populations are taking preventative measures during extreme heat and therefore mitigating heat-related illness.

Relative air temperature analysis external building on Gowa Campus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mustamin, Tayeb; Rahim, Ramli; Baharuddin; Jamala, Nurul; Kusno, Asniawaty

2018-03-01

This study aims to data analyze the relative temperature and humidity of the air outside the building. Data retrieval taken from weather monitoring device (monitoring) Vaisala, RTU (Remote Terminal Unit), Which is part of the AWS (Automatic Weather Stations) Then Processing data processed and analyzed by using Microsoft Excel program in the form of graph / picture fluctuation Which shows the average value, standard deviation, maximum value, and minimum value. Results of data processing then grouped in the form: Daily, and monthly, based on time intervals every 30 minutes. The results showed Outside air temperatures in March, April, May and September 2016 Which entered in the thermal comfort zone according to SNI standard (Indonesian National Standard) only at 06.00-10.00. In late March to early April Thermal comfort zone also occurs at 15.30-18.00. The highest maximum air temperature occurred in September 2016 at 11.01-11.30 And the lowest minimum value in September 2016, time 6:00 to 6:30. The result of the next analysis shows the level of data conformity with thermal comfort zone based on SNI (Indonesian National Standard) every month.

Instream habitat restoration and stream temperature reduction in a whirling disease-positive Spring Creek in the Blackfoot River Basin, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pierce, Ron; Podner, Craig; Marczak, Laurie B; Jones, Leslie A.

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic warming of stream temperature and the presence of exotic diseases such as whirling disease are both contemporary threats to coldwater salmonids across western North America. We examined stream temperature reduction over a 15-year prerestoration and postrestoration period and the severity of Myxobolus cerebralisinfection (agent of whirling disease) over a 7-year prerestoration and postrestoration period in Kleinschmidt Creek, a fully reconstructed spring creek in the Blackfoot River basin of western Montana. Stream restoration increased channel length by 36% and reduced the wetted surface area by 69% by narrowing and renaturalizing the channel. Following channel restoration, average maximum daily summer stream temperatures decreased from 15.7°C to 12.5°C, average daily temperature decreased from 11.2°C to 10.0°C, and the range of daily temperatures narrowed by 3.3°C. Despite large changes in channel morphology and reductions in summer stream temperature, the prevalence and severity of M. cerebralis infection for hatchery Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss remained high (98–100% test fish with grade > 3 infection) versus minimal for hatchery Brown Trout Salmo trutta (2% of test fish with grade-1 infection). This study shows channel renaturalization can reduce summer stream temperatures in small low-elevation, groundwater-dominated streams in the Blackfoot basin to levels more suitable to native trout. However, because of continuous high infections associated with groundwater-dominated systems, the restoration of Kleinschmidt Creek favors brown trout Salmo trutta given their innate resistance to the parasite and the higher relative susceptibility of other salmonids.

The impact of reforestation in the northeast United States on precipitation and surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Allyson

Since the 1920s, forest coverage in the northeastern United States has recovered from disease, clearing for agricultural and urban development, and the demands of the timber industry. Such a dramatic change in ground cover can influence heat and moisture fluxes to the atmosphere, as measured in altered landscapes in Australia, Israel, and the Amazon. In this study, the impacts of recent reforestation in the northeastern United States on summertime precipitation and surface temperature were quantified by comparing average modern values to 1950s values. Weak positive (negative) relationships between reforestation and average monthly precipitation and daily minimum temperatures (average daily maximum surface temperature) were found. There was no relationship between reforestation and average surface temperature. Results of the observational analysis were compared with results obtained from reforestation scenarios simulated with the BUGS5 global climate model. The single difference between the model runs was the amount of forest coverage in the northeast United States; three levels of forest were defined - a grassland state, with 0% forest coverage, a completely forested state, with approximately 100% forest coverage, and a control state, with forest coverage closely resembling modern forest coverage. The three simulations were compared, and had larger magnitude average changes in precipitation and in all temperature variables. The difference in magnitudes between the model simulations observations was much larger than the difference in the amount of reforestation in each case. Additionally, unlike in observations, a negative relationship was found between average daily minimum temperature and amount of forest coverage, implying that additional factors influence temperature and precipitation in the real world that are not accounted for in the model.

New developments on the homogenization of Canadian daily temperature data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vincent, Lucie A.; Wang, Xiaolan L.

2010-05-01

Long-term and homogenized surface air temperature datasets had been prepared for the analysis of climate trends in Canada (Vincent and Gullett 1999). Non-climatic steps due to instruments relocation/changes and changes in observing procedures were identified in the annual mean of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures using a technique based on regression models (Vincent 1998). Monthly adjustments were derived from the regression models and daily adjustments were obtained from an interpolation procedure using the monthly adjustments (Vincent et al. 2002). Recently, new statistical tests have been developed to improve the power of detecting changepoints in climatological data time series. The penalized maximal t (PMT) test (Wang et al. 2007) and the penalized maximal F (PMF) test (Wang 2008b) were developed to take into account the position of each changepoint in order to minimize the effect of unequal and small sample size. A software package RHtestsV3 (Wang and Feng 2009) has also been developed to implement these tests to homogenize climate data series. A recursive procedure was developed to estimate the annual cycle, linear trend, and lag-1 autocorrelation of the base series in tandem, so that the effect of lag-1 autocorrelation is accounted for in the tests. A Quantile Matching (QM) algorithm (Wang 2009) was also developed for adjusting Gaussian daily data so that the empirical distributions of all segments of the detrended series match each other. The RHtestsV3 package was used to prepare a second generation of homogenized temperatures in Canada. Both the PMT test and the PMF test were applied to detect shifts in monthly mean temperature series. Reference series was used in conducting a PMT test. Whenever possible, the main causes of the shifts were retrieved through historical evidence such as the station inspection reports. Finally, the QM algorithm was used to adjust the daily temperature series for the artificial shifts identified from the respective monthly mean series. These procedures were applied to homogenize daily maximum and minimum temperatures recorded at 336 stations across Canada. During the presentation, the procedures will be summarized and their application will be illustrated throughout the provision of selected examples. References Vincent, L.A., X. Zhang, B.R. Bonsal and W.D. Hogg, 2002: Homogenization of daily temperatures over Canada. J. Climate, 15, 1322-1334. Vincent, L.A., and D.W. Gullett, 1999: Canadian historical and homogeneous temperature datasets for climate change analyses. Int. J. Climatol., 19, 1375-1388. Vincent, L.A., 1998: A technique for the identification of inhomogeneities in Canadian temperature series. J. Climate, 11, 1094-1104. Wang, X. L., 2009: A quantile matching adjustment algorithm for Gaussian data series. Climate Research Division, Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate, Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada. 5 pp. [Available online at http://cccma.seos.uvic.ca/ETCCDMI/software.shtml]. Wang X. L. and Y. Feng, 2009: RHtestsV3 User Manual. Climate Research Division, Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate, Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada. 26 pp. [Available online at http://cccma.seos.uvic.ca/ETCCDMI/software.shtml]. Wang, X. L., 2008a: Accounting for autocorrelation in detecting mean-shifts in climate data series using the penalized maximal t or F test. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 47, 2423-2444. Wang, X. L., 2008b: Penalized maximal F-test for detecting undocumented mean-shifts without trend-change. J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech., 25 (No. 3), 368-384. DOI:10.1175/2007/JTECHA982.1. Wang, X. L., Q. H. Wen, and Y. Wu, 2007: Penalized maximal t test for detecting undocumented mean change in climate data series. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 46 (No. 6), 916-931. DOI:10.1175/JAM2504.1

Life cycle and fecundity analysis of Lutzomyia shannoni (Dyar) (Diptera: Psychodidae).

PubMed

Ferro, C; Cárdenas, E; Corredor, D; Morales, A; Munstermann, L E

1998-01-01

The life cycle of Lutzomyia shannoni (Dyar), was described for laboratory conditions with maximum daily temperature of 27-30 degree C, minimum daily temperatures of 22-27 degree C and relative humidity between 87-99%. Life cycle in each stage was as follows: egg 6-12 days (ave, 8.5 days); first stage larva 5-13 days (ave. 9.6 days); second stage larva 4-13 days (ave. 9.2 days); third stage larva 5-19 days (ave. 11.8 days); fourth stage larva 7-37 days (ave. 19.9 days); pupa 7-32 days (ave. 15.2 days). The life expectancy of adults ranged from 4 to 15 days (ave. 8.6 days). The entire egg to adult period ranged from 36 to 74 days (ave. 54.6 days). On average, each female oviposited 22.7 eggs; the average egg retention per female was 24.3 eggs.

Adjusted monthly temperature and precipitation values for Guinea Conakry (1941-2010) using HOMER.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilar, Enric; Aziz Barry, Abdoul; Mestre, Olivier

2013-04-01

Africa is a data sparse region and there are very few studies presenting homogenized monthly records. In this work, we introduce a dataset consisting of 12 stations spread over Guinea Conakry containing daily values of maximum and minimum temperature and accumulated rainfall for the period 1941-2010. The daily values have been quality controlled using R-Climdex routines, plus other interactive quality control applications, coded by the authors. After applying the different tests, more than 200 daily values were flagged as doubtful and carefully checked against the statistical distribution of the series and the rest of the dataset. Finally, 40 values were modified or set to missing and the rest were validated. The quality controlled daily dataset was used to produce monthly means and homogenized with HOMER, a new R-pacakge which includes the relative methods that performed better in the experiments conducted in the framework of the COST-HOME action. A total number of 38 inhomogeneities were found for temperature. As a total of 788 years of data were analyzed, the average ratio was one break every 20.7 years. The station with a larger number of inhomogeneities was Conakry (5 breaks) and one station, Kissidougou, was identified as homogeneous. The average number of breaks/station was 3.2. The mean value of the monthly factors applied to maximum (minimum) temperature was 0.17 °C (-1.08 °C) . For precipitation, due to the demand of a denser network to correctly homogenize this variable, only two major inhomogeneities in Conakry (1941-1961, -12%) and Kindia (1941-1976, -10%) were corrected. The adjusted dataset was used to compute regional series for the three variables and trends for the 1941-2010 period. The regional mean has been computed by simply averaging anomalies to 1971-2000 of the 12 time series. Two different versions have been obtained: a first one (A) makes use of the missing values interpolation made by HOMER (so all annual values in the regional series are an average of 12 anomalies); the second one (B) removes the missing values, and each value of the regional series is an average of 5 to 12 anomalies. In this case, a variance stabilization factor has been applied. As a last step a trend analysis has been applied over the regional series. This has been done using two different approaches: standard least squares regression (LS) and the implementation by Zhang of the Sen slope estimator (SEN), applied using the zyp R-package. The results for the A & B series and the different trend calculations are very similar, in terms of slopes and signification. All the identified trends are significant at the 95% confidence level or better. Using the A series and the SEN slope, the annual regional mean of maximum temperatures has increased 0.135 °C/decade (95% confidence interval: 0.087 / 0.173) and the annual regional mean of minimum temperatures 0.092 °C/decade (0.050/0.135). Maximum temperatures present high values in the 1940s to 1950s and a large increase in the last decades. In contrast, minimum temperatures were relatively cooler in the 1940s and 1950s and the increase in the last decades is more moderate. Finally, the regional mean of annual accumulated precipitation decreased between 1941 and 2010 by -2.20 mm (-3.82/-0.64). The precipitation series are dominated by the high values before 1970, followed by a well known decrease in rainfall. This homogenized monthly series will improve future analysis over this portion of Western Africa.

Temperature Variation under Continuous Light Restores Tomato Leaf Photosynthesis and Maintains the Diurnal Pattern in Stomatal Conductance

PubMed Central

Haque, Mohammad S.; de Sousa, Alexandra; Soares, Cristiano; Kjaer, Katrine H.; Fidalgo, Fernanda; Rosenqvist, Eva; Ottosen, Carl-Otto

2017-01-01

The response of tomato plants (Solanum lycopersicum L. cv. Aromata) to continuous light (CL) in relation to photosynthesis, abscisic acid (ABA) and reactive oxygen species (ROS) was investigated to improve the understanding of the development and/or alleviation of CL-induced leaf injury in constant and diurnal temperature fluctuations with similar daily light integral and daily mean temperature. The plants were grown in three photoperiodic treatments for 15 days; One treatment with a 16/8 h light/dark period and a light/dark temperature of 27/17°C (Control), two CL treatments with 24 h photoperiods, one with a constant temperature of 24°C (CLCT) and the other one with variable temperature of 27/17°C for 16/8 ho, respectively (CLVT). A diurnal pattern of stomatal conductance (gs) and [ABA] was observed in the plants grown in the control and CLVT conditions, while the plants in CLCT conditions experienced a significant decrease in stomatal conductance aligned with an increase in ABA. The net photosynthesis (A) was significantly reduced in CLCT, aligned with a significant decrease in the maximum rate of Rubisco carboxylation (Vcmax), the maximum rate of electron transport (Jmax) and mesophyll diffusion conductance to CO2 (gm) in comparison to the control and CLVT. An increased production of H2O2 and O2•- linked with increased activities of antioxidative enzymes was seen in both CL treatments, but despite of this, leaf injuries were only observed in the CLCT treatment. The results suggest that the diurnal temperature fluctuations alleviated the CL injury symptoms, probably because the diurnal cycles of cellular mechanisms were maintained. The ROS were shown not to be directly involved in CL-induced leaf injury, since both ROS production and scavenging was highest in CLVT without leaf chlorotic symptoms. PMID:28979273

Downscaling of RCM outputs for representative catchments in the Mediterranean region, for the 1951-2100 time-frame

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino; Pusceddu, Gabriella; Langousis, Andreas; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Caroletti, Giulio

2013-04-01

Within the activities of the EU FP7 CLIMB project (www.climb-fp7.eu), we developed downscaling procedures to reliably assess climate forcing at hydrologically relevant scales, and applied them to six representative hydrological basins located in the Mediterranean region: Riu Mannu and Noce in Italy, Chiba in Tunisia, Kocaeli in Turkey, Thau in France, and Gaza in Palestine. As a first step towards this aim, we used daily precipitation and temperature data from the gridded E-OBS project (www.ecad.eu/dailydata), as reference fields, to rank 14 Regional Climate Model (RCM) outputs from the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com). The four best performing model outputs were selected, with the additional constraint of maintaining 2 outputs obtained from running different RCMs driven by the same GCM, and 2 runs from the same RCM driven by different GCMs. For these four RCM-GCM model combinations, a set of downscaling techniques were developed and applied, for the period 1951-2100, to variables used in hydrological modeling (i.e. precipitation; mean, maximum and minimum daily temperatures; direct solar radiation, relative humidity, magnitude and direction of surface winds). The quality of the final products is discussed, together with the results obtained after applying a bias reduction procedure to daily temperature and precipitation fields.

Influence of four tree shelter types on microclimate and seedling performance of Oregon white oak and western redcedar.

Treesearch

Warren D. Devine; Constance A. Harrington

2008-01-01

Four types of tree shelters were evaluated in southwestern Washington for their effects on seedling microenvironment and performance of two tree species. Shelter types were fine-mesh fabric shelters, solid-walled white shelters with and without vent holes, and solid-walled blue unvented shelters. Summer mean and daily maximum air temperatures were increased by 0.8 °C...

Effect of Climate Factors on the Childhood Pneumonia in Papua New Guinea: A Time-Series Analysis.

PubMed

Kim, Jinseob; Kim, Jong-Hun; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Kim, Ho; Honda, Yasushi; Ha, Mina; Hashizume, Masahiro; Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis

2016-02-15

This study aimed to assess the association between climate factors and the incidence of childhood pneumonia in Papua New Guinea quantitatively and to evaluate the variability of the effect size according to their geographic properties. The pneumonia incidence in children under five-year and meteorological factors were obtained from six areas, including monthly rainfall and the monthly average daily maximum temperatures during the period from 1997 to 2006 from national health surveillance data. A generalized linear model was applied to measure the effect size of local and regional climate factor. The pooled risk of pneumonia in children per every 10 mm increase of rainfall was 0.24% (95% confidence interval: -0.01%-0.50%), and risk per every 1 °C increase of the monthly mean of the maximum daily temperatures was 4.88% (95% CI: 1.57-8.30). Southern oscillation index and dipole mode index showed an overall negative effect on childhood pneumonia incidence, -0.57% and -4.30%, respectively, and the risk of pneumonia was higher in the dry season than in the rainy season (pooled effect: 12.08%). There was a variability in the relationship between climate factors and pneumonia which is assumed to reflect distribution of the determinants of and vulnerability to pneumonia in the community.

Communal nesting under climate change: fitness consequences of higher incubation temperatures for a nocturnal lizard.

PubMed

Dayananda, Buddhi; Gray, Sarah; Pike, David; Webb, Jonathan K

2016-07-01

Communal nesting lizards may be vulnerable to climate warming, particularly if air temperatures regulate nest temperatures. In southeastern Australia, velvet geckos Oedura lesueurii lay eggs communally inside rock crevices. We investigated whether increases in air temperatures could elevate nest temperatures, and if so, how this could influence hatching phenotypes, survival, and population dynamics. In natural nests, maximum daily air temperature influenced mean and maximum daily nest temperatures, implying that nest temperatures will increase under climate warming. To determine whether hotter nests influence hatchling phenotypes, we incubated eggs under two fluctuating temperature regimes to mimic current 'cold' nests (mean = 23.2 °C, range 10-33 °C) and future 'hot' nests (27.0 °C, 14-37 °C). 'Hot' incubation temperatures produced smaller hatchlings than did cold temperature incubation. We released individually marked hatchlings into the wild in 2014 and 2015, and monitored their survival over 10 months. In 2014 and 2015, hot-incubated hatchlings had higher annual mortality (99%, 97%) than cold-incubated (11%, 58%) or wild-born hatchlings (78%, 22%). To determine future trajectories of velvet gecko populations under climate warming, we ran population viability analyses in Vortex and varied annual rates of hatchling mortality within the range 78- 96%. Hatchling mortality strongly influenced the probability of extinction and the mean time to extinction. When hatchling mortality was >86%, populations had a higher probability of extinction (PE: range 0.52- 1.0) with mean times to extinction of 18-44 years. Whether future changes in hatchling survival translate into reduced population viability will depend on the ability of females to modify their nest-site choices. Over the period 1992-2015, females used the same communal nests annually, suggesting that there may be little plasticity in maternal nest-site selection. The impacts of climate change may therefore be especially severe on communal nesting species, particularly if such species occupy thermally challenging environments. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Observed changes in extremes of daily rainfall and temperature in Jemma Sub-Basin, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worku, Gebrekidan; Teferi, Ermias; Bantider, Amare; Dile, Yihun T.

2018-02-01

Climate variability has been a threat to the socio-economic development of Ethiopia. This paper examined the changes in rainfall, minimum, and maximum temperature extremes of Jemma Sub-Basin of the Upper Blue Nile Basin for the period of 1981 to 2014. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall, seasonal Mann-Kendall, and Sen's slope estimator were used to estimate annual trends. Ten rainfall and 12 temperature indices were used to study changes in rainfall and temperature extremes. The results showed an increasing trend of annual and summer rainfall in more than 78% of the stations and a decreasing trend of spring rainfall in most of the stations. An increase in rainfall extreme events was detected in the majority of the stations. Several rainfall extreme indices showed wetting trends in the sub-basin, whereas limited indices indicated dryness in most of the stations. Annual maximum and minimum temperature and extreme temperature indices showed warming trend in the sub-basin. Presence of extreme rainfall and a warming trend of extreme temperature indices may suggest signs of climate change in the Jemma Sub-Basin. This study, therefore, recommended the need for exploring climate induced risks and implementing appropriate climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Effect of seasonality, weather and holidays on the incidence of proximal hip fracture.

PubMed

Koren, Lior; Barak, Adi; Norman, Doron; Sachs, Ofer; Peled, Eli

2014-05-01

Proximal hip fractures in the elderly are common and place a heavy burden on health resources. Researching the timing of these fractures could contribute to diverting resources towards peaks in incidence and investing in prevention at certain times. To examine the effect of seasonality, weather and Jewish holidays on hip fracture incidence in older adults. The study population comprised 2050 patients aged 65 years or more who sustained a proximal hip fracture. The computerized files of the patients were reviewed for trends in incidence by season, precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures, day of the week, and certain Jewish festivals. Hip fractures were more likely to occur in the winter than in the summer (P < 0.0001). Factors that significantly correlated with hip fracture were the maximum daily temperature (r = -0.746, P = 0.005) followed by the minimum daily temperature (r = -0.740, P = 0.006) and precipitation (r = 0.329, P = 0.02). There were fewer fractures on Saturdays (the Sabbath) as compared to other days of the week (P = 0.045). Researching the incidence on Jewish holidays, we found an elevated incidence on Passover (P < 0.0001) and a reduced incidence on the Day of Atonement (Yom Kippui) (P = 0.013). In older people there is an elevated incidence of proximal hip fractures during the winter and on the Jewish festivals. On weekends and on the Day of Atonement the incidence of proximal hip fractures was reduced.

Variation of thermal parameters in two different color morphs of a diurnal poison toad, Melanophryniscus rubriventris (Anura: Bufonidae).

PubMed

Sanabria, Eduardo A; Vaira, Marcos; Quiroga, Lorena B; Akmentins, Mauricio S; Pereyra, Laura C

2014-04-01

We study the variation in thermal parameters in two contrasting populations Yungas Redbelly Toads (Melanophryniscus rubriventris) with different discrete color phenotypes comparing field body temperatures, critical thermal maximum and heating rates. We found significant differences in field body temperatures of the different morphs. Temperatures were higher in toads with a high extent of dorsal melanization. No variation was registered in operative temperatures between the study locations at the moment of capture and processing. Critical thermal maximum of toads was positively related with the extent of dorsal melanization. Furthermore, we founded significant differences in heating rates between morphs, where individuals with a high extent of dorsal melanization showed greater heating rates than toads with lower dorsal melanization. The color pattern-thermal parameter relationship observed may influence the activity patterns and body size of individuals. Body temperature is a modulator of physiological and behavioral functions in amphibians, influencing daily and seasonal activity, locomotor performance, digestion rate and growth rate. It is possible that some growth constraints may arise due to the relationship of color pattern-metabolism allowing different morphs to attain similar sizes at different locations instead of body-size clines. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Cold storage effects on egg hatch in laboratory-reared Culicoides variipennis sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae).

PubMed

Hunt, G J; Tabachnick, W J

1995-09-01

The effects of cold storage (5 degrees C) on the hatching rates of laboratory-reared Culicoides variipennis sonorensis eggs were examined. Mortality increased with storage time. Average maximum embryo survivorship for 4 trials was 55.0 +/- 4.2 (+/- SEM) days. Alternating daily cycles of high and then low mean hatching rates occurred and possibly were due to location differences in temperature within the temperature-controlled rearing system. During cold storage at 5 degrees C, C. v. sonorensis eggs may be kept for ca. 28 days with an anticipated hatching rate of about 50%.

Short-term changes in thermal perception associated with heatwave conditions in Melbourne, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, Cho Kwong Charlie; Gallant, Ailie J. E.; Tapper, Nigel J.

2018-05-01

Variations in human thermal perception have been described on timescales from minutes to seasons. However, the effect of weather-related thermal extremes on inter-daily changes to outdoor thermal perception has not been well characterised. This study used human thermal comfort data from an outdoor botanic garden in sub-urban Melbourne, Australia as a case study. We examined inter-daily variations in local visitors' thermal perception before (11-12 January 2014) and after (18-19 January 2014) a severe heatwave from 14 to 17 January 2014, when daily maximum temperature exceeded 41 °C for 4 consecutive days. We compared thermal comfort survey results (pre-heatwave: n = 342, post-heatwave: n = 294) with air temperature and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) measurements. Even though the days preceding and following the heatwave had a similar range in temperature (19-25 °C) and UTCI (26-32 °C), the visitors felt cooler in the days following the heatwave (i.e. lower thermal sensation votes). In the 2 days following the heatwave, visitors also wore less clothing compared with before the heatwave. Our results show that the thermal perception of visitors changed significantly following their exposure to the heatwave, even after controlling for changes in clothing choices and the ages of survey participants. Psychological adaptation to heat (such as thermal history and expectation) might be one of the possible explanations for this inter-daily variability of local visitors' thermal perception.

Assessing the vulnerability of the transportation industry of Ukraine to future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khomenko, Inna

2017-04-01

Climate change will affect transportation primarily through increases in several types of weather and climate extremes. The impacts will vary by mode of transportation and region of the country, but they will be widespread and costly in both human and economic terms and will require significant changes in the planning, design, construction, operation, and maintenance of transportation systems. In the study impact of climate change on operation of road transport are analysed on the basis of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Data contains series of daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature, daily liquid (or mixed) and solid precipitation, daily mean relative humidity and daily mean and maximum wind speed, obtained for the period of 2011 to 2050 for 28 cities distributed evenly across Ukraine. Spatial and temporal distributions of meteorological variables are obtained. The statistic characteristics obtained were compared with the correspondent climate normals and highway-related temporal changeability is determined. Frequency of freezing rain, wet snow, very hot days, droughts, fogs, ice-covered ground, slippery wet ground, ice and snow slippery coat are investigated. Climate and economic risks to the road transport network are assessed. Maps of spatial distribution of risk assessment are obtained. The results obtained show typical weather pattern is changed and climate and weather extreme influencing on operation of road transport are more frequent for the both scenarios, but for the RCP 8.5 scenario hazard weather occurs more often. During the period of 2011-2050 significant climate warming (by 2-3°C) is registered. Extreme temperatures are observed more frequently. High temperatures bring on growth in frequency of wildfires and heat waves. Annual precipitation amount decreases, except the western mountain and northern regions, where precipitation amount increase on 35%. Increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation can produce droughts in southern, eastern and central regions. But growth in precipitation in mountain region can cause flooding and landslides. Strong increase in mixed precipitation and significant reduction in ice and liquid precipitation take place for all territory of Ukraine. In the southern region ice precipitation is virtually vanished and observed only 2-3 days per year. Growth of mixed precipitation causes increase in severe weather events such as freezing precipitation, ice-covered ground and snow slippery coat.

Time trend in the impact of heat waves on daily mortality in Spain for a period of over thirty years (1983-2013).

PubMed

Díaz, J; Carmona, R; Mirón, I J; Luna, M Y; Linares, C

2018-07-01

Many of the studies that analyze the future impact of climate change on mortality assume that the temperature that constitutes a heat wave will not change over time. This is unlikely, however, given the process of adapting to heat changes, prevention plans, and improvements in social and health infrastructure. The objective of this study is to analyze whether, during the 1983-2013 period, there has been a temporal change in the maximum daily temperatures that constitute a heat wave (T threshold ) in Spain, and to investigate whether there has been variation in the attributable risk (AR) associated with mortality due to high temperatures in this period. This study uses daily mortality data for natural causes except accidents CIEX: A00-R99 in municipalities of over 10,000 inhabitants in 10 Spanish provinces and maximum temperature data from observatories located in province capitals. The time series is divided into three periods: 1983-1992, 1993-2003 and 2004-2013. For each period and each province, the value of T threshold was calculated using scatter-plot diagram of the daily mortality pre-whitened series. For each period and each province capitals, it has been calculated the number of heat waves and quantifying the impact on mortality through generalized linear model (GLM) methodology with the Poisson regression link. These models permits obtained the relative risks (RR) and attributable risks (AR). Via a meta-analysis, using the Global RR and AR were calculated the heat impact for the total of the 10 provinces. The results show that in the first two periods RR remained constant RR: 1.14 (CI95%: 1.09 1.19) and RR: 1.14 (CI95%: 1.10 1.18), while the third period shows a sharp decrease with respect to the prior two periods RR: 1.01 (CI95%: 1.00 1.01); the difference is statistically significant. In Spain there has been a sharp decrease in mortality attributable to heat over the past 10 years. The observed variation in RR puts into question the results of numerous studies that analyze the future impact of heat on mortality in different temporal scenarios and show it to be constant over time. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Selected meteorological data for an arid site near Beatty, Nye County, Nevada, calendar years 1990 and 1991

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, James L.; Andraski, Brian J.

1995-01-01

Selected meteorological data were collected at a study site adjacent to a low-level radioactive-waste burial facility near Beatty, Nevada, for calendar years 1990 and 1991. Data were collected in support of ongoing studies to estimate the potential for downward movement of radionuclides into the unsaturated sediments beneath waste-burial trenches at the facility. The data include air temperature, relative humidity, vapor pressure, incident solar radiation, windspeed, wind direction, barometric pressure, and precipitation. The data are summarized in tables and graphs.Instrumentation used at the site is discussed. The discussion includes the type, reported accuracy, and mounting height of each sensor.In 1990, the average hourly air temperatures ranged from -16.2 degrees Celsius, in December, to 44.2 degrees Celsius, in July. Hourly averaged relative humidity ranged from 6 percent to more than 90 percent. Hourly vapor pressures ranged from 0.08 to 1.84 kilopascals. Daily maximum incident solar radiation values ranged from 192 to 1,028 watts per square meter. Daily mean windspeed ranged from less than 1 to 8.7 meters per second. Wind direction was primarily from the northwest in fall, winter, and spring and varied from southeast, southwest, or northwest during the summer. Hourly barometric pressures ranged from 99.47 to 103.12 kilopascals. Total precipitation for 1990 was 32.4 millimeters; almost 45 percent was in September.In 1991, the average hourly air temperatures ranged from -9.2 degrees Celsius, in January, to 43.7 degrees Celsius, in July. Hourly averaged relative humidity ranged from 3 percent to more than 95 percent. Hourly vapor pressures ranged from 0.07 to 2.22 kilopascals. Daily maximum incident solar radiation values ranged from 143 to 1,041 watts per square meter. Daily mean windspeed ranged from 1.2 to 8.4 meters per second. Wind direction was primarily from the northwest in fall, winter, and spring and varied from southeast, southwest, or northwest during the summer. Hourly barometric pressures ranged from 99.52 to 103.40 kilopascals. Total precipitation for 1991 was 103.6 millimeters; almost 60 percent was in March.

Application of thermal model for pan evaporation to the hydrology of a defined medium, the sponge

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trenchard, M. H.; Artley, J. A. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

A technique is presented which estimates pan evaporation from the commonly observed values of daily maximum and minimum air temperatures. These two variables are transformed to saturation vapor pressure equivalents which are used in a simple linear regression model. The model provides reasonably accurate estimates of pan evaporation rates over a large geographic area. The derived evaporation algorithm is combined with precipitation to obtain a simple moisture variable. A hypothetical medium with a capacity of 8 inches of water is initialized at 4 inches. The medium behaves like a sponge: it absorbs all incident precipitation, with runoff or drainage occurring only after it is saturated. Water is lost from this simple system through evaporation just as from a Class A pan, but at a rate proportional to its degree of saturation. The contents of the sponge is a moisture index calculated from only the maximum and minium temperatures and precipitation.

Genome scanning for detecting adaptive genes along environmental gradients in the Japanese conifer, Cryptomeria japonica.

PubMed

Tsumura, Y; Uchiyama, K; Moriguchi, Y; Ueno, S; Ihara-Ujino, T

2012-12-01

Local adaptation is important in evolutionary processes and speciation. We used multiple tests to identify several candidate genes that may be involved in local adaptation from 1026 loci in 14 natural populations of Cryptomeria japonica, the most economically important forestry tree in Japan. We also studied the relationships between genotypes and environmental variables to obtain information on the selective pressures acting on individual populations. Outlier loci were mapped onto a linkage map, and the positions of loci associated with specific environmental variables are considered. The outlier loci were not randomly distributed on the linkage map; linkage group 11 was identified as a genomic island of divergence. Three loci in this region were also associated with environmental variables such as mean annual temperature, daily maximum temperature, maximum snow depth, and so on. Outlier loci identified with high significance levels will be essential for conservation purposes and for future work on molecular breeding.

Comfort air temperature influence on heating and cooling loads of a residential building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanciu, C.; Șoriga, I.; Gheorghian, A. T.; Stanciu, D.

2016-08-01

The paper presents the thermal behavior and energy loads of a two-level residential building designed for a family of four, two adults and two students, for different inside comfort levels reflected by the interior air temperature. Results are intended to emphasize the different thermal behavior of building elements and their contribution to the building's external load. The most important contributors to the building thermal loss are determined. Daily heating and cooling loads are computed for 12 months simulation in Bucharest (44.25°N latitude) in clear sky conditions. The most important aspects regarding sizing of thermal energy systems are emphasized, such as the reference months for maximum cooling and heating loads and these loads’ values. Annual maximum loads are encountered in February and August, respectively, so these months should be taken as reference for sizing thermal building systems, in Bucharest, under clear sky conditions.

Effects of Catch-and-Release Angling on Salmonids at Elevated Water Temperatures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boyd, James W.; Guy, Christopher S.; Horton, Travis

2010-08-01

Few studies have assessed catch and release mortality of salmonids at water temperatures ≥23°C, despite predictions of warming stream temperatures due to climate change. In addition, the effects of diel temperature fluctuations on salmonid mortality have largely been ignored in catch and release angling studies. The primary objective of this study was to measure catch and release mortality of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss, brown trout Salmo trutta, and mountain whitefish Prosopium williamsoni in three water temperature treatments; when daily maximum water temperatures were cool (<20°C), warm (20 to 22.9°C), and hot ( 23°C). A secondary objective was to assess catchmore » and release mortality of salmonids angled in morning and evening within water-temperature treatments. These objectives were related to Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks’ Drought Fishing Closure Policy (DFCP). Angling (fly-fishing only) occurred in the Gallatin and Smith rivers. All angled fish were confined to in-stream holding cages and monitored for mortality for 72 h. Mortality of rainbow trout peaked at 16% in the Gallatin River and 9% in the Smith River during the hot treatment. Mortality of brown trout was less than 5% in all water-temperature treatments in both rivers. Mountain whitefish mortality peaked at 28% in the hot treatment in the Smith River. No mortality for any species occurred in either river when daily maximum water temperatures were <20°C. Mortality of rainbow trout peaked at 16% in the evening hot treatment in the Smith River. Mortality of brown trout and mountain whitefish was not related to time of day. The catch and release mortality values presented here likely represent fishing mortality given that most anglers in southwest Montana practice catch and release angling. The mortality values we observed were lower than predicted (< 30%), given reports in the literature. The difference is likely related to the in situ nature of the study and periods of cooler water temperatures between peaks facilitating recovery from thermal stress.« less

40 CFR 432.15 - New source performance standards (NSPS).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... § 432.12(a)(1); and standards for ammonia (as N) are as follows: Performance Standards [NSPS] Regulatedparameter Maximum daily 1 Maximum monthly avg. 1 Ammonia (as N) 0.34 0.17 1 Pounds per 1000 lbs (or g/kg... ammonia (as N) apply: Performance Standards [NSPS] Regulatedparameter Maximum daily 1 Maximum monthly avg...

Developing a 1 km resolution daily air temperature dataset for urban and surrounding areas in the conterminous United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Xiaoma; Zhou, Yuyu; Asrar, Ghassem R.

High spatiotemporal resolution air temperature (Ta) datasets are increasingly needed for assessing the impact of temperature change on people, ecosystems, and energy system, especially in the urban domains. However, such datasets are not widely available because of the large spatiotemporal heterogeneity of Ta caused by complex biophysical and socioeconomic factors such as built infrastructure and human activities. In this study, we developed a 1-km gridded dataset of daily minimum Ta (Tmin) and maximum Ta (Tmax), and the associated uncertainties, in urban and surrounding areas in the conterminous U.S. for the 2003–2016 period. Daily geographically weighted regression (GWR) models were developedmore » and used to interpolate Ta using 1 km daily land surface temperature and elevation as explanatory variables. The leave-one-out cross-validation approach indicates that our method performs reasonably well, with root mean square errors of 2.1 °C and 1.9 °C, mean absolute errors of 1.5 °C and 1.3 °C, and R 2 of 0.95 and 0.97, for Tmin and Tmax, respectively. The resulting dataset captures reasonably the spatial heterogeneity of Ta in the urban areas, and also captures effectively the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon that Ta rises with the increase of urban development (i.e., impervious surface area). The new dataset is valuable for studying environmental impacts of urbanization such as UHI and other related effects (e.g., on building energy consumption and human health). The proposed methodology also shows a potential to build a long-term record of Ta worldwide, to fill the data gap that currently exists for studies of urban systems.« less

Impact of diurnal temperature fluctuations on larval settlement and growth of the reef coral Pocillopora damicornis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Lei; Sun, You-Fang; Zhang, Yu-Yang; Zhou, Guo-Wei; Li, Xiu-Bao; McCook, Laurence J.; Lian, Jian-Sheng; Lei, Xin-Ming; Liu, Sheng; Cai, Lin; Qian, Pei-Yuan; Huang, Hui

2017-12-01

Diurnal fluctuations in seawater temperature are ubiquitous on tropical reef flats. However, the effects of such dynamic temperature variations on the early stages of corals are poorly understood. In this study, we investigated the responses of larvae and new recruits of Pocillopora damicornis to two constant temperature treatments (29 and 31 °C) and two diurnally fluctuating treatments (28-31 and 30-33 °C with daily means of 29 and 31 °C, respectively) simulating the 3 °C diel oscillations at 3 m depth on the Luhuitou fringing reef (Sanya, China). Results showed that the thermal stress on settlement at 31 °C was almost negated by the fluctuating treatment. Further, neither elevated temperature nor temperature fluctuations caused bleaching responses in recruits, while the maximum excitation pressure over photosystem II (PSII) was reduced under fluctuating temperatures. Although early growth and development were highly stimulated at 31 °C, oscillations of 3 °C had little effects on budding and lateral growth at either mean temperature. Nevertheless, daytime encounters with the maximum temperature of 33 °C in fluctuating 31 °C elicited a notable reduction in calcification compared to constant 31 °C. These results underscore the complexity of the effects caused by diel temperature fluctuations on early stages of corals and suggest that ecologically relevant temperature variability could buffer warming stress on larval settlement and dampen the positive effects of increased temperatures on coral growth.

AgRISTARS: Supporting research. Spring small grains planting date distribution model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hodges, T.; Artley, J. A. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

A model was developed using 996 planting dates at 51 LANDSAT segments for spring wheat and spring barley in Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota in 1979. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation were obtained from the cooperative weather stations nearest to each segment. The model uses a growing degree day summation modified for daily temperature range to estimate the beginning of planting and uses a soil surface wetness variable to estimate how a fixed number of planting days are distributed after planting begins. For 1979, the model predicts first, median, and last planting dates with root mean square errors of 7.91, 6.61, and 7.09 days, respectively. The model also provides three or four dates to represent periods of planting activity within the planting season. Although the full model was not tested on an independent data set, it may be suitable in areas other than the U.S. Great Plains where spring small grains are planted as soon as soil and air temperatures become warm enough in the spring for plant growth.

Assessing climate change over the Marche Region (central Italy) from 1961 to 2100: projected changes in mean temperature and future heat waves characterization (with a statistical evaluation of RCMs local performance)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sangelantoni, Lorenzo; Coluccelli, Alessandro; Russo, Aniello

2014-05-01

Marche region (central Italy, facing the Adriatic Sea) climate dynamics are connected to the Mediterranean basin, identified as one of the most sensitive areas to ongoing climate change. Taken into account difficulties to carry out an overarching assessment over the heterogeneous Mediterranean climate-change issues frame, we opted toward a consistent regional bordered study. Projected changes in mean seasonal temperature, with an introductory multi-statistical model performance evaluation and a future heat waves intensity and duration characterization, are here presented. Multi-model projections over Marche Region, on daily mean, minimum and maximum temperature, have been extracted from the outputs of a set of 7 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) over Europe run by several research Institutes participating to the EU ENSEMBLE project. These climate simulations from 1961 to 2100 refer to the boundary conditions of the IPCC A1B emission scenario, and have a horizontal resolution of 25km × 25km. Furthermore, two RCMs outputs from Med-CORDEX project, with a higher horizontal resolution (12km x 12km) and boundary conditions provided by the new Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, are considered. Observed daily mean, minimum and maximum temperature over Marche region domain have been extracted from E-OBS gridded data set (Version 9.0) referring to the period 1970-2004. This twofold work firstly provides a concise statistical summary of how well employed RCMs reproduce observed (1970-2004) mean temperature over Marche region in term of correlation, root-mean-square difference, and ratio of their variances, graphically displayed on a 2D-Taylor diagram. This multi-statistical model performance evaluation easily allows: - to compare the agreement with observation of the 9 individual RCMs - to compare RCMs with different horizontal resolution (12 km and 25 km) - to evaluate the improvement provided by the RCMs ensemble. Results indicate that the 9 RCMs ensemble provides the statistically best reproduction of the observed interannual mean temperature distribution. Secondly, we assessed projected seasonal ensemble average change in mean temperature referring to the ending 21st century obtained by comparison between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 time slice modeled mean value over Marche region. Results emphasize summer as the season most affected by projected temperature increase (+4.5°C / +5.0°C), followed by spring season temperature increase (+3.5°C / +4.0°C). Finally, considering that some of the most severe health hazards arise from multi-day heat-waves, associated with both hot day-time and warm night-time temperatures, we assessed modeled trend (1961-2100) of the heat waves intensity and duration: intensity through the temporal evolution of the summer (J J A months) maximum and minimum temperature 90th percentile, heat waves length by temporal evolution of two detected threshold-based indices (annual maximum number of consecutive days characterized by Tmin >= 24°C and annual maximum number of consecutive days characterized by Tmax > = 32°C). Same analysis for both coastal and mountainous areas has been conducted. Future research plans aim to involve ensemble RCMs simulation, processed with bias correction methods, in forcing climate change impacts models, to provide a detailed regional heat waves impacts scenario, mainly over agriculture and health sectors.

Global intensification in observed short-duration rainfall extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowler, H. J.; Lewis, E.; Guerreiro, S.; Blenkinsop, S.; Barbero, R.; Westra, S.; Lenderink, G.; Li, X.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall events are expected to intensify with a warming climate and this is currently driving extensive research. While daily rainfall extremes are widely thought to have increased globally in recent decades, changes in rainfall extremes on shorter timescales, often associated with flash flooding, have not been documented at global scale due to surface observational limitations and the lack of a global sub-daily rainfall database. The access to and use of such data remains a challenge. For the first time, we have synthesized across multiple data sources providing gauge-based sub-daily rainfall observations across the globe over the last 6 decades. This forms part of the INTENSE project (part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)'s Grand Challenge on 'Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes' and the Global Water and Energy Exchanges (GEWEX) Hydroclimate Project cross-cut on sub-daily rainfall). A set of global hydroclimatic indices have been produced based upon stakeholder recommendations including indices that describe maximum rainfall totals and timing, the intensity, duration and frequency of storms, frequency of storms above specific thresholds and information about the diurnal cycle. This will provide a unique global data resource on sub-daily precipitation whose derived indices will be freely available to the wider scientific community. Because of the physical connection between global warming and the moisture budget, we also sought to infer long-term changes in sub-daily rainfall extremes contingent on global mean temperature. Whereas the potential influence of global warming is uncertain at regional scales, where natural variability dominates, aggregating surface stations across parts of the world may increase the global warming-induced signal. Changes in terms of annual maximum rainfall across various resolutions ranging from 1-h to 24-h are presented and discussed.

Evaluation of the WRF-Urban Modeling System Coupled to Noah and Noah-MP Land Surface Models Over a Semiarid Urban Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salamanca, Francisco; Zhang, Yizhou; Barlage, Michael; Chen, Fei; Mahalov, Alex; Miao, Shiguang

2018-03-01

We have augmented the existing capabilities of the integrated Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-urban modeling system by coupling three urban canopy models (UCMs) available in the WRF model with the new community Noah with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP) land surface model (LSM). The WRF-urban modeling system's performance has been evaluated by conducting six numerical experiments at high spatial resolution (1 km horizontal grid spacing) during a 15 day clear-sky summertime period for a semiarid urban environment. To assess the relative importance of representing urban surfaces, three different urban parameterizations are used with the Noah and Noah-MP LSMs, respectively, over the two major cities of Arizona: Phoenix and Tucson metropolitan areas. Our results demonstrate that Noah-MP reproduces somewhat better than Noah the daily evolution of surface skin temperature and near-surface air temperature (especially nighttime temperature) and wind speed. Concerning the urban areas, bulk urban parameterization overestimates nighttime 2 m air temperature compared to the single-layer and multilayer UCMs that reproduce more accurately the daily evolution of near-surface air temperature. Regarding near-surface wind speed, only the multilayer UCM was able to reproduce realistically the daily evolution of wind speed, although maximum winds were slightly overestimated, while both the single-layer and bulk urban parameterizations overestimated wind speed considerably. Based on these results, this paper demonstrates that the new community Noah-MP LSM coupled to an UCM is a promising physics-based predictive modeling tool for urban applications.

Curios relationship revealed by looking at long term data sets-The geometry and allometric scaling of diel xylem sap flux in tropical trees.

PubMed

Kunert, Norbert

2016-10-20

Daily xylem sap flux values (daily J s ) and maximum xylem sap flux values (max J s ) from 125 tropical trees from different study sites in the Neotropics were compared. A cross species and study site relationship was found between daily and maximum values. The relationship can be expressed as daily J s =6.5x max J s . The geometrical relationship between the maximum xylem sap flux of a given day is thus defining the daily xylem sap flux rates. Assuming a bell-shaped diurnal sap flux course and a relatively constant day length the maximum xylem sap flux is the only possible changing variable to define daily fluxes. Further, this relationship is showing the inertia of the xylem sap flux as a physical object and highlights the delayed response to environmental changes and its subsequent inevitable susceptibility under environmental stress to hydraulic failure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Observation of local cloud and moisture feedbacks over high ocean and desert surface temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chahine, Moustafa T.

1995-01-01

New data on clouds and moisture, made possible by reanalysis of weather satellite observations, show that the atmosphere reacts to warm clusters of very high sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific Ocean with increased moisture, cloudiness, and convection, suggesting a negative feedback limiting the sea surface temperature rise. The reverse was observed over dry and hot deserts where both moisture and cloudiness decrease, suggesting a positive feedback perpetuating existing desert conditions. In addition, the observations show a common critical surface temperature for both oceans and land; the distribution of atmospheric moisture is observed to reach a maximum value when the daily surface temperatures approach 304 +/- 1 K. These observations reveal complex dynamic-radiative interactions where multiple processes act simultaneously at the surface as well as in the atmosphere to regulate the feedback processes.

Effects of temperature and photoperiod on daily activity rhythms of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae).

PubMed

Rivas, Gustavo B S; de Souza, Nataly Araujo; Peixoto, Alexandre A; Bruno, Rafaela V

2014-06-19

Insect vectors have been established as models in Chronobiology for many decades, and recent studies have demonstrated a close relationship between the circadian clock machinery, daily rhythms of activity and vectorial capacity. Lutzomyia longipalpis, the primary vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum in the New World, is reported to have crepuscular/nocturnal activity in the wild. However, most of these studies applied hourly CDC trap captures, which is a good indicative of L. longipalpis behaviour, but has limited accuracy due to the inability to record the daily activity of a single insect during consecutive days. In addition, very little is known about the activity pattern of L. longipalpis under seasonal variations of average temperature and day length in controlled laboratory conditions. We recorded the locomotor activity of L. longipalpis males under different artificial regimes of temperature and photoperiod. First, in order to test the effects of temperature on the activity, sandflies were submitted to regimes of light/dark cycles similar to the equinox photoperiod (LD 12:12) combined with different constant temperatures (20°C, 25°C and 30°C). In addition, we recorded sandfly locomotor activity under a mild constant temperature (25°C with different day length regimes: 8 hours, 12 hours and 16 hours). L. longipalpis exhibited more activity at night, initiating dusk-related activity (onset time) at higher rather than lower temperatures. In parallel, changes of photoperiod affected anticipation as well as all the patterns of activity (onset, peak and offset time). However, under LD 16:08, sandflies presented the earliest values of maximum peak and offset times, contrary to other regimes. Herein, we showed that light and temperature modulate L. longipalpis behaviour under controlled laboratory conditions, suggesting that sandflies might use environmental information to sustain their crepuscular/nocturnal activity, as well as other important aspects as mating and host-seeking at appropriate times in different seasons. Our results depict previously unappreciated aspects of the L. longipalpis daily rhythms of activity that might have important epidemiological implications.

Effects of temperature and photoperiod on daily activity rhythms of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae)

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Insect vectors have been established as models in Chronobiology for many decades, and recent studies have demonstrated a close relationship between the circadian clock machinery, daily rhythms of activity and vectorial capacity. Lutzomyia longipalpis, the primary vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum in the New World, is reported to have crepuscular/nocturnal activity in the wild. However, most of these studies applied hourly CDC trap captures, which is a good indicative of L. longipalpis behaviour, but has limited accuracy due to the inability to record the daily activity of a single insect during consecutive days. In addition, very little is known about the activity pattern of L. longipalpis under seasonal variations of average temperature and day length in controlled laboratory conditions. Methods We recorded the locomotor activity of L. longipalpis males under different artificial regimes of temperature and photoperiod. First, in order to test the effects of temperature on the activity, sandflies were submitted to regimes of light/dark cycles similar to the equinox photoperiod (LD 12:12) combined with different constant temperatures (20°C, 25°C and 30°C). In addition, we recorded sandfly locomotor activity under a mild constant temperature (25°C with different day length regimes: 8 hours, 12 hours and 16 hours). Results L. longipalpis exhibited more activity at night, initiating dusk-related activity (onset time) at higher rather than lower temperatures. In parallel, changes of photoperiod affected anticipation as well as all the patterns of activity (onset, peak and offset time). However, under LD 16:08, sandflies presented the earliest values of maximum peak and offset times, contrary to other regimes. Conclusions Herein, we showed that light and temperature modulate L. longipalpis behaviour under controlled laboratory conditions, suggesting that sandflies might use environmental information to sustain their crepuscular/nocturnal activity, as well as other important aspects as mating and host-seeking at appropriate times in different seasons. Our results depict previously unappreciated aspects of the L. longipalpis daily rhythms of activity that might have important epidemiological implications. PMID:24947114

The effects of temperature and food availability on growth, flexibility in metabolic rates and their relationships in juvenile common carp.

PubMed

Zeng, Ling-Qing; Fu, Cheng; Fu, Shi-Jian

2018-03-01

Flexibility in phenotypic traits can allow organisms to handle environmental changes. However, the ecological consequences of flexibility in metabolic rates are poorly understood. Here, we investigated whether the links between growth and flexibility in metabolic rates vary between two temperatures. Common carp Cyprinus carpio were raised in three temperature treatments [the 18°C, 28°C and 28°C-food control (28°C-FC)] and fed to satiation of receiving food either once or twice daily for 4weeks. The morphology and metabolic rates (standard metabolic rate, SMR; maximum metabolic rate, MMR) were measured at the beginning and end of the experiment. The mean total food ingested by fish in the 28°C-FC treatment was the same as that by fish in the 18°C treatment at each food availability. The final SMR (not MMR and aerobic scope, AS=MMR-SMR) increased more in the 28°C and 28°C-FC treatments with twice-daily feedings than once-daily feedings. Fish in the 28°C treatment had a higher specific growth rate (SGR) than fish in the 28°C-FC and 18°C treatments at both food availabilities. However, no differences in feeding efficiency (FE) were found among the three treatments in fish fed twice daily. The flexibility in SMR was related to individual differences in SGR, not with food intake and FE; individuals who increased their SMR more had a smaller growth performance with twice-daily feedings at 28°C, but it did not exist at 18°C. Flexibility in SMR provides a growth advantage in juvenile common carp experiencing changes in food availability and this link is temperature-dependent. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inter-annual Variability of Temperature and Extreme Heat Events during the Nairobi Warm Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, A.; Misiani, H. O.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Ouma, G. O.; Anyah, R. O.; Jordan, A.

2016-12-01

Extreme heat events significantly stress all organisms in the ecosystem, and are likely to be amplified in peri-urban and urban areas. Understanding the variability and drivers behind these events is key to generating early warnings, yet in Equatorial East Africa, this information is currently unavailable. This study uses daily maximum and minimum temperature records from weather stations within Nairobi and its surroundings to characterize variability in daily minimum temperatures and the number of extreme heat events. ERA-Interim reanalysis is applied to assess the drivers of these events at event and seasonal time scales. At seasonal time scales, high temperatures in Nairobi are a function of large scale climate variability associated with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature (GMSST). Extreme heat events, however, are more strongly associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For instance, the persistence of AMO and ENSO, in particular, provide a basis for seasonal prediction of extreme heat events/days in Nairobi. It is also apparent that the temporal signal from extreme heat events in tropics differs from classic heat wave definitions developed in the mid-latitudes, which suggests that a new approach for defining these events is necessary for tropical regions.

Solar energy potential in the United Arab Emirates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khalil, A.; Alnajjar, A.

1995-12-31

In the present study, the global, direct and diffuse components of solar radiation as well as temperature, relative humidity and wind speed have been continuously monitored and analyzed on hourly, daily and monthly basis. Experimental data is compared to the predictions of different theoretical models as functions of declination and hour angles. Correlations are obtained describing the variation of hourly, daily and monthly averages of total and diffuse solar radiation using polynomial expressions. Empirical correlations describing the dependence of the daily average diffuse to total radiation ratio on the clearness index are also obtained. Data of daily diffuse to totalmore » radiation ratio is compared to correlations obtained by other investigators. The comparison shows a reasonable agreement with some scatter due to the seasonal dependence of the correlation. Comparison of calculations with experimental measurements under clear sky conditions show excellent agreement with a maximum error of 8%. The measured ratio of hourly to daily insolation is in excellent agreement with the model of Hottel which is expressed as a function of the clearness index, hour and the sunset hour angles.« less

Daily torpor and hibernation in birds and mammals.

PubMed

Ruf, Thomas; Geiser, Fritz

2015-08-01

Many birds and mammals drastically reduce their energy expenditure during times of cold exposure, food shortage, or drought, by temporarily abandoning euthermia, i.e. the maintenance of high body temperatures. Traditionally, two different types of heterothermy, i.e. hypometabolic states associated with low body temperature (torpor), have been distinguished: daily torpor, which lasts less than 24 h and is accompanied by continued foraging, versus hibernation, with torpor bouts lasting consecutive days to several weeks in animals that usually do not forage but rely on energy stores, either food caches or body energy reserves. This classification of torpor types has been challenged, suggesting that these phenotypes may merely represent extremes in a continuum of traits. Here, we investigate whether variables of torpor in 214 species (43 birds and 171 mammals) form a continuum or a bimodal distribution. We use Gaussian-mixture cluster analysis as well as phylogenetically informed regressions to quantitatively assess the distinction between hibernation and daily torpor and to evaluate the impact of body mass and geographical distribution of species on torpor traits. Cluster analysis clearly confirmed the classical distinction between daily torpor and hibernation. Overall, heterothermic endotherms tend to be small; hibernators are significantly heavier than daily heterotherms and also are distributed at higher average latitudes (∼35°) than daily heterotherms (∼25°). Variables of torpor for an average 30 g heterotherm differed significantly between daily heterotherms and hibernators. Average maximum torpor bout duration was >30-fold longer, and mean torpor bout duration >25-fold longer in hibernators. Mean minimum body temperature differed by ∼13°C, and the mean minimum torpor metabolic rate was ∼35% of the basal metabolic rate (BMR) in daily heterotherms but only 6% of BMR in hibernators. Consequently, our analysis strongly supports the view that hibernators and daily heterotherms are functionally distinct groups that probably have been subject to disruptive selection. Arguably, the primary physiological difference between daily torpor and hibernation, which leads to a variety of derived further distinct characteristics, is the temporal control of entry into and arousal from torpor, which is governed by the circadian clock in daily heterotherms, but apparently not in hibernators. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Statistical modeling of daily and subdaily stream temperatures: Application to the Methow River Basin, Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldwell, R. J.; Gangopadhyay, S.; Bountry, J.; Lai, Y.; Elsner, M. M.

2013-07-01

Management of water temperatures in the Columbia River Basin (Washington) is critical because water projects have substantially altered the habitat of Endangered Species Act listed species, such as salmon, throughout the basin. This is most important in tributaries to the Columbia, such as the Methow River, where the spawning and rearing life stages of these cold water fishes occurs. Climate change projections generally predict increasing air temperatures across the western United States, with less confidence regarding shifts in precipitation. As air temperatures rise, we anticipate a corresponding increase in water temperatures, which may alter the timing and availability of habitat for fish reproduction and growth. To assess the impact of future climate change in the Methow River, we couple historical climate and future climate projections with a statistical modeling framework to predict daily mean stream temperatures. A K-nearest neighbor algorithm is also employed to: (i) adjust the climate projections for biases compared to the observed record and (ii) provide a reference for performing spatiotemporal disaggregation in future hydraulic modeling of stream habitat. The statistical models indicate the primary drivers of stream temperature are maximum and minimum air temperature and stream flow and show reasonable skill in predictability. When compared to the historical reference time period of 1916-2006, we conclude that increases in stream temperature are expected to occur at each subsequent time horizon representative of the year 2020, 2040, and 2080, with an increase of 0.8 ± 1.9°C by the year 2080.

[Multi-temporal scale analysis of impacts of extreme high temperature on net carbon uptake in subtropical coniferous plantation.

PubMed

Zhang, Mi; Wen, Xue Fa; Zhang, Lei Ming; Wang, Hui Min; Guo, Yi Wen; Yu, Gui Rui

2018-02-01

Extreme high temperature is one of important extreme weathers that impact forest ecosystem carbon cycle. In this study, applying CO 2 flux and routine meteorological data measured during 2003-2012, we examined the impacts of extreme high temperature and extreme high temperature event on net carbon uptake of subtropical coniferous plantation in Qianyanzhou. Combining with wavelet analysis, we analyzed environmental controls on net carbon uptake at different temporal scales, when the extreme high temperature and extreme high temperature event happened. The results showed that mean daily cumulative NEE decreased by 51% in the days with daily maximum air temperature range between 35 ℃ and 40 ℃, compared with that in the days with the range between 30 ℃ and 34 ℃. The effects of the extreme high temperature and extreme high temperature event on monthly NEE and annual NEE related to the strength and duration of extreme high tempe-rature event. In 2003, when strong extreme high temperature event happened, the sum of monthly cumulative NEE in July and August was only -11.64 g C·m -2 ·(2 month) -1 . The value decreased by 90%, compared with multi-year average value. At the same time, the relative variation of annual NEE reached -6.7%. In July and August, when the extreme high temperature and extreme high temperature event occurred, air temperature (T a ) and vapor press deficit (VPD) were the dominant controller for the daily variation of NEE. The coherency between NEE T a and NEE VPD was 0.97 and 0.95, respectively. At 8-, 16-, and 32-day periods, T a , VPD, soil water content at 5 cm depth (SWC), and precipitation (P) controlled NEE. The coherency between NEE SWC and NEE P was higher than 0.8 at monthly scale. The results indicated that atmospheric water deficit impacted NEE at short temporal scale, when the extreme high temperature and extreme high temperature event occurred, both of atmospheric water deficit and soil drought stress impacted NEE at long temporal scales in this ecosystem.

Heat-Related Mortality in India: Excess All-Cause Mortality Associated with the 2010 Ahmedabad Heat Wave

PubMed Central

Azhar, Gulrez Shah; Mavalankar, Dileep; Nori-Sarma, Amruta; Rajiva, Ajit; Dutta, Priya; Jaiswal, Anjali; Sheffield, Perry; Knowlton, Kim; Hess, Jeremy J.; Azhar, Gulrez Shah; Deol, Bhaskar; Bhaskar, Priya Shekhar; Hess, Jeremy; Jaiswal, Anjali; Khosla, Radhika; Knowlton, Kim; Mavalankar, Mavalankar; Rajiva, Ajit; Sarma, Amruta; Sheffield, Perry

2014-01-01

Introduction In the recent past, spells of extreme heat associated with appreciable mortality have been documented in developed countries, including North America and Europe. However, far fewer research reports are available from developing countries or specific cities in South Asia. In May 2010, Ahmedabad, India, faced a heat wave where the temperatures reached a high of 46.8°C with an apparent increase in mortality. The purpose of this study is to characterize the heat wave impact and assess the associated excess mortality. Methods We conducted an analysis of all-cause mortality associated with a May 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India, to determine whether extreme heat leads to excess mortality. Counts of all-cause deaths from May 1–31, 2010 were compared with the mean of counts from temporally matched periods in May 2009 and 2011 to calculate excess mortality. Other analyses included a 7-day moving average, mortality rate ratio analysis, and relationship between daily maximum temperature and daily all-cause death counts over the entire year of 2010, using month-wise correlations. Results The May 2010 heat wave was associated with significant excess all-cause mortality. 4,462 all-cause deaths occurred, comprising an excess of 1,344 all-cause deaths, an estimated 43.1% increase when compared to the reference period (3,118 deaths). In monthly pair-wise comparisons for 2010, we found high correlations between mortality and daily maximum temperature during the locally hottest “summer” months of April (r = 0.69, p<0.001), May (r = 0.77, p<0.001), and June (r = 0.39, p<0.05). During a period of more intense heat (May 19–25, 2010), mortality rate ratios were 1.76 [95% CI 1.67–1.83, p<0.001] and 2.12 [95% CI 2.03–2.21] applying reference periods (May 12–18, 2010) from various years. Conclusion The May 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India had a substantial effect on all-cause excess mortality, even in this city where hot temperatures prevail through much of April-June. PMID:24633076

A three-stage hybrid model for regionalization, trends and sensitivity analyses of temperature anomalies in China from 1966 to 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Feifei; Yang, XiaoHua; Shen, Zhenyao

2018-06-01

Temperature anomalies have received increasing attention due to their potentially severe impacts on ecosystems, economy and human health. To facilitate objective regionalization and examine regional temperature anomalies, a three-stage hybrid model with stages of regionalization, trends and sensitivity analyses was developed. Annual mean and extreme temperatures were analyzed using the daily data collected from 537 stations in China from 1966 to 2015, including the annual mean, minimum and maximum temperatures (Tm, TNm and TXm) as well as the extreme minimum and maximum temperatures (TNe and TXe). The results showed the following: (1) subregions with coherent temperature changes were identified using the rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis and K-means clustering algorithm. The numbers of subregions were 6, 7, 8, 9 and 8 for Tm, TNm, TXm, TNe and TXe, respectively. (2) Significant increases in temperature were observed in most regions of China from 1966 to 2015, although warming slowed down over the last decade. This warming primarily featured a remarkable increase in its minimum temperature. For Tm and TNm, 95% of the stations showed a significant upward trend at the 99% confidence level. TNe increased the fastest, at a rate of 0.56 °C/decade, whereas 21% of the stations in TXe showed a downward trend. (3) The mean temperatures (Tm, TNm and TXm) in the high-latitude regions increased more quickly than those in the low-latitude regions. The maximum temperature increased significantly at high elevations, whereas the minimum temperature increased greatly at middle-low elevations. The most pronounced warming occurred in eastern China in TNe and northwestern China in TXe, with mean elevations of 51 m and 2098 m, respectively. A cooling trend in TXe was observed at the northwestern end of China. The warming rate in TNe varied the most among the subregions (0.63 °C/decade).

A meteorologically-driven yield reduction model for spring and winter wheat

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ravet, F. W.; Cremins, W. J.; Taylor, T. W.; Ashburn, P.; Smika, D.; Aaronson, A. (Principal Investigator)

1983-01-01

A yield reduction model for spring and winter wheat was developed for large-area crop condition assessment. Reductions are expressed in percentage from a base yield and are calculated on a daily basis. The algorithm contains two integral components: a two-layer soil water budget model and a crop calendar routine. Yield reductions associated with hot, dry winds (Sukhovey) and soil moisture stress are determined. Input variables include evapotranspiration, maximum temperature and precipitation; subsequently crop-stage, available water holding percentage and stress duration are evaluated. No specific base yield is required and may be selected by the user; however, it may be generally characterized as the maximum likely to be produced commercially at a location.

Patterns of odour emission, thermogenesis and pollinator activity in cones of an African cycad: what mechanisms apply?

PubMed

Suinyuy, Terence N; Donaldson, John S; Johnson, Steven D

2013-09-01

Ontogenetic patterns of odour emissions and heating associated with plant reproductive structures may have profound effects on insect behaviour, and consequently on pollination. In some cycads, notably Macrozamia, temporal changes in emission of specific odour compounds and temperature have been interpreted as a 'push-pull' interaction in which pollinators are either attracted or repelled according to the concentration of the emitted volatiles. To establish which mechanisms occur in the large Encephalartos cycad clade, the temporal patterns of volatile emissions, heating and pollinator activity of cones of Encephalartos villosus in the Eastern Cape (EC) and KwaZulu Natal (KZN) of South Africa were investigated. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analyses of Encephalartos villosus cone volatiles showed that emissions, dominated by eucalyptol and 2-isopropyl-3-methoxypyrazine in EC populations and (3E)-1,3-octadiene and (3E,5Z)-1,3,5-octatriene in the KZN populations, varied across developmental stages but did not vary significantly on a daily cycle. Heating in male cones was higher at dehiscence than during pre- and post-dehiscence, and reached a maximum at about 1830 h when temperatures were between 7·0 and 12·0 °C above ambient. Daily heating of female cones was less pronounced and reached a maximum at about 1345 h when it was on average between 0·9 and 3·0 °C above ambient. Insect abundance on male cones was higher at dehiscence than at the other stages and significantly higher in the afternoon than in the morning and evening. There are pronounced developmental changes in volatile emissions and heating in E. villosus cones, as well as strong daily changes in thermogenesis. Daily patterns of volatile emissions and pollinator abundance in E. villosus are different from those observed in some Macrozamia cycads and not consistent with the push-pull pattern as periods of peak odour emission do not coincide with mass exodus of insects from male cones.

Modelling average maximum daily temperature using r largest order statistics: An application to South African data

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Natural hazards (events that may cause actual disasters) are established in the literature as major causes of various massive and destructive problems worldwide. The occurrences of earthquakes, floods and heat waves affect millions of people through several impacts. These include cases of hospitalisation, loss of lives and economic challenges. The focus of this study was on the risk reduction of the disasters that occur because of extremely high temperatures and heat waves. Modelling average maximum daily temperature (AMDT) guards against the disaster risk and may also help countries towards preparing for extreme heat. This study discusses the use of the r largest order statistics approach of extreme value theory towards modelling AMDT over the period of 11 years, that is, 2000–2010. A generalised extreme value distribution for r largest order statistics is fitted to the annual maxima. This is performed in an effort to study the behaviour of the r largest order statistics. The method of maximum likelihood is used in estimating the target parameters and the frequency of occurrences of the hottest days is assessed. The study presents a case study of South Africa in which the data for the non-winter season (September–April of each year) are used. The meteorological data used are the AMDT that are collected by the South African Weather Service and provided by Eskom. The estimation of the shape parameter reveals evidence of a Weibull class as an appropriate distribution for modelling AMDT in South Africa. The extreme quantiles for specified return periods are estimated using the quantile function and the best model is chosen through the use of the deviance statistic with the support of the graphical diagnostic tools. The Entropy Difference Test (EDT) is used as a specification test for diagnosing the fit of the models to the data.

Short-term effects of air temperature on mortality and effect modification by air pollution in three cities of Bavaria, Germany: a time-series analysis.

PubMed

Breitner, Susanne; Wolf, Kathrin; Devlin, Robert B; Diaz-Sanchez, David; Peters, Annette; Schneider, Alexandra

2014-07-01

Air temperature has been shown to be associated with mortality; however, only very few studies have been conducted in Germany. This study examined the association between daily air temperature and cause-specific mortality in Bavaria, Southern Germany. Moreover, we investigated effect modification by age and ambient air pollution. We obtained data from Munich, Nuremberg as well as Augsburg, Germany, for the period 1990 to 2006. Data included daily cause-specific death counts, mean daily meteorology and air pollution concentrations (particulate matter with a diameter<10 μm [PM10] and maximum 8-h ozone). We used Poisson regression models combined with distributed lag non-linear models adjusting for long-term trend, calendar effects, and meteorological factors. Air pollutant concentrations were categorized into three levels, and an interaction term was included to quantify potential effect modification of the air temperature effects. The temperature-mortality relationships were non-linear for all cause-specific mortality categories showing U- or J-shaped curves. An increase from the 90th (20.0 °C) to the 99th percentile (24.8 °C) of 2-day average temperature led to an increase in non-accidental mortality by 11.4% (95% CI: 7.6%-15.3%), whereas a decrease from the 10th (-1.0 °C) to the 1st percentile (-7.5 °C) in the 15-day average temperature resulted in an increase of 6.2% (95% CI: 1.8%-10.8%). The very old were found to be most susceptible to heat effects. Results also suggested some effect modification by ozone, but not for PM10. Results indicate that both very low and very high air temperature increase cause-specific mortality in Bavaria. Results also pointed to the importance of considering effect modification by age and ozone in assessing temperature effects on mortality. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Planting data and wheat yield models. [Kansas, South Dakota, and U.S.S.R.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feyerherm, A. M. (Principal Investigator)

1977-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. A variable date starter model for spring wheat depending on temperature was more precise than a fixed date model. The same conclusions for fall-planted wheat were not reached. If the largest and smallest of eight temperatures were used to estimate daily maximum and minimum temperatures; respectively, a 1-4 F bias would be introduced into these extremes. For Kansas, a reduction of 0.5 bushels/acre in the root-mean-square-error between model and SRS yields was achieved by a six fold increase (7 to 42) in the density of weather stations. An additional reduction of 0.3 b/A was achieved by incorporating losses due to rusts in the model.

Long-Term Daily and Monthly Climate Records from Stations Across the Contiguous United States (U.S.Historical Climatology Network) (NDP-019)

DOE Data Explorer

Menne, M. J. [National Climatic Data Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Williams, Jr., C. N. [National Climatic Data Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Vose, R. S. [National Climatic Data Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

2016-01-01

The United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) is a high-quality data set of daily and monthly records of basic meteorological variables from 1218 observing stations across the 48 contiguous United States. Daily data include observations of maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation amount, snowfall amount, and snow depth; monthly data consist of monthly-averaged maximum, minimum, and mean temperature and total monthly precipitation. Most of these stations are U.S. Cooperative Observing Network stations located generally in rural locations, while some are National Weather Service First-Order stations that are often located in more urbanized environments. The USHCN has been developed over the years at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) to assist in the detection of regional climate change. Furthermore, it has been widely used in analyzing U.S. climte. The period of record varies for each station. USHCN stations were chosen using a number of criteria including length of record, percent of missing data, number of station moves and other station changes that may affect data homogeneity, and resulting network spatial coverage. Collaboration between NCDC and CDIAC on the USHCN project dates to the 1980s (Quinlan et al. 1987). At that time, in response to the need for an accurate, unbiased, modern historical climate record for the United States, the Global Change Research Program of the U.S. Department of Energy and NCDC chose a network of 1219 stations in the contiguous United States that would become a key baseline data set for monitoring U.S. climate. This initial USHCN data set contained monthly data and was made available free of charge from CDIAC. Since then it has been comprehensively updated several times [e.g., Karl et al. (1990) and Easterling et al. (1996)]. The initial USHCN daily data set was made available through CDIAC via Hughes et al. (1992) and contained a 138-station subset of the USHCN. This product was updated by Easterling et al. (1999) and expanded to include 1062 stations. In 2009 the daily USHCN dataset was expanded to include all 1218 stations in the USHCN.

Temperature dependence of attitude sensor coalignments on the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pitone, D. S.; Eudell, A. H.; Patt, F. S.

1989-01-01

Results are presented on the temperature correlation of the relative coalignment between the fine pointing sun sensor (FPSS) and fixed head star trackers (FHSTs) on the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM). This correlation can be caused by spacecraft electronic and mechanical effects. Routine daily measurements reveal a time dependent sensor coalignment variation. The magnitude of the alignment variation is on the order of 120 arc seconds (arc sec), which greatly exceeds the prelaunch thermal structural analysis estimate of 15 acr sec. Differences between FPSS-only and FHST-only yaw solutions as a function of mission day are correlated with the relevant spacecraft temperature. If unaccounted for, the sensor misalignments due to thermal effects are a significant source of error in attitude determination accuracy. Prominent sources of temperature variation are identified and correlated with the temperature profile observed on the SMM. It was determined that even relatively small changes in spacecraft temperature can affect the coalignments between the attitude hardware on the SMM and the science instrument support plate and that frequent recalibration of sensor alignments is necessary to compensate for this effect. An alterntive to frequent recalibration is to model the variation of alignments as a function of temperature and use this to maintain accurate ground or onboard alignment estimates. These flight data analysis results may be important consierations for prelaunch analysis of future missions.

Effect of season and high ambient temperature on activity levels and patterns of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos).

PubMed

McLellan, Michelle L; McLellan, Bruce N

2015-01-01

Understanding factors that influence daily and annual activity patterns of a species provides insights to challenges facing individuals, particularly when climate shifts, and thus is important in conservation. Using GPS collars with dual-axis motion sensors that recorded the number of switches every 5 minutes we tested the hypotheses: 1. Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) increase daily activity levels and active bout lengths when they forage on berries, the major high-energy food in this ecosystem, and 2. Grizzly bears become less active and more nocturnal when ambient temperature exceeds 20°C. We found support for hypothesis 1 with both male and female bears being active from 0.7 to 2.8 h longer in the berry season than in other seasons. Our prediction under hypothesis 2 was not supported. When bears foraged on berries on a dry, open mountainside, there was no relationship between daily maximum temperature (which varied from 20.4 to 40.1°C) and the total amount of time bears were active, and no difference in activity levels during day or night between warm (20.4-27.3°C) and hot (27.9-40.1°C) days. Our results highlight the strong influence that food acquisition has on activity levels and patterns of grizzly bears and is a challenge to the heat dissipation limitation theory.

Effect of Season and High Ambient Temperature on Activity Levels and Patterns of Grizzly Bears (Ursus arctos)

PubMed Central

McLellan, Michelle L.; McLellan, Bruce N.

2015-01-01

Understanding factors that influence daily and annual activity patterns of a species provides insights to challenges facing individuals, particularly when climate shifts, and thus is important in conservation. Using GPS collars with dual-axis motion sensors that recorded the number of switches every 5 minutes we tested the hypotheses: 1. Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) increase daily activity levels and active bout lengths when they forage on berries, the major high-energy food in this ecosystem, and 2. Grizzly bears become less active and more nocturnal when ambient temperature exceeds 20°C. We found support for hypothesis 1 with both male and female bears being active from 0.7 to 2.8 h longer in the berry season than in other seasons. Our prediction under hypothesis 2 was not supported. When bears foraged on berries on a dry, open mountainside, there was no relationship between daily maximum temperature (which varied from 20.4 to 40.1°C) and the total amount of time bears were active, and no difference in activity levels during day or night between warm (20.4–27.3°C) and hot (27.9–40.1°C) days. Our results highlight the strong influence that food acquisition has on activity levels and patterns of grizzly bears and is a challenge to the heat dissipation limitation theory. PMID:25692979

Human-biometeorological assessment of increasing summertime extreme heat events in Shanghai, China during 1973-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, Qinqin; Ge, Quansheng; Xi, Jianchao; Zheng, Jingyun

2017-11-01

Summertime extreme heat events, defined by the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), have shown increasing trends in Shanghai from 1973 to 2015. There is a clear shift to higher temperatures for the daily maximum UTCI values, and the number of days with daily maximum UTCI exceeding 38 °C significantly increased by 4.34 days/10a. An upward trend of 3.67 days/10a was detected for the number of hot days which also displays an abrupt increase around 1998. Both the frequency and total duration of heat waves have significantly increased by 0.77 times/10a and 3.51 days/10a respectively. Their inter-decadal variations indicate a three-part division of the study period showing more and more heat waves and longer total duration, which are 1.0 times/a and 4.13 days/a for 1973-1987, 1.71 times/a and 7.64 days/a for 1988-2001, and 3.57 times/a and 16.0 days/a for 2002-2015. In addition to that are more occurrences of long-lasting heat waves. Compared with the UTCI, air temperature-based definitions have indicated substantially higher increases in extreme heat events, especially for hot nights. The relatively low humidity and strong wind speeds in the twenty-first century are considered to be responsible for this difference. Our study provides a more in-depth case to monitor extreme heat events under the combining effects of air temperature, humidity, wind speeds, total cloud cover, etc. and can support studies over other regions.

Development and validation of a 5-day-ahead hay fever forecast for patients with grass-pollen-induced allergic rhinitis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Weger, Letty A.; Beerthuizen, Thijs; Hiemstra, Pieter S.; Sont, Jacob K.

2014-08-01

One-third of the Dutch population suffers from allergic rhinitis, including hay fever. In this study, a 5-day-ahead hay fever forecast was developed and validated for grass pollen allergic patients in the Netherlands. Using multiple regression analysis, a two-step pollen and hay fever symptom prediction model was developed using actual and forecasted weather parameters, grass pollen data and patient symptom diaries. Therefore, 80 patients with a grass pollen allergy rated the severity of their hay fever symptoms during the grass pollen season in 2007 and 2008. First, a grass pollen forecast model was developed using the following predictors: (1) daily means of grass pollen counts of the previous 10 years; (2) grass pollen counts of the previous 2-week period of the current year; and (3) maximum, minimum and mean temperature ( R 2 = 0.76). The second modeling step concerned the forecasting of hay fever symptom severity and included the following predictors: (1) forecasted grass pollen counts; (2) day number of the year; (3) moving average of the grass pollen counts of the previous 2 week-periods; and (4) maximum and mean temperatures ( R 2 = 0.81). Since the daily hay fever forecast is reported in three categories (low-, medium- and high symptom risk), we assessed the agreement between the observed and the 1- to 5-day-ahead predicted risk categories by kappa, which ranged from 65 % to 77 %. These results indicate that a model based on forecasted temperature and grass pollen counts performs well in predicting symptoms of hay fever up to 5 days ahead.

Development and validation of a 5-day-ahead hay fever forecast for patients with grass-pollen-induced allergic rhinitis.

PubMed

de Weger, Letty A; Beerthuizen, Thijs; Hiemstra, Pieter S; Sont, Jacob K

2014-08-01

One-third of the Dutch population suffers from allergic rhinitis, including hay fever. In this study, a 5-day-ahead hay fever forecast was developed and validated for grass pollen allergic patients in the Netherlands. Using multiple regression analysis, a two-step pollen and hay fever symptom prediction model was developed using actual and forecasted weather parameters, grass pollen data and patient symptom diaries. Therefore, 80 patients with a grass pollen allergy rated the severity of their hay fever symptoms during the grass pollen season in 2007 and 2008. First, a grass pollen forecast model was developed using the following predictors: (1) daily means of grass pollen counts of the previous 10 years; (2) grass pollen counts of the previous 2-week period of the current year; and (3) maximum, minimum and mean temperature (R (2)=0.76). The second modeling step concerned the forecasting of hay fever symptom severity and included the following predictors: (1) forecasted grass pollen counts; (2) day number of the year; (3) moving average of the grass pollen counts of the previous 2 week-periods; and (4) maximum and mean temperatures (R (2)=0.81). Since the daily hay fever forecast is reported in three categories (low-, medium- and high symptom risk), we assessed the agreement between the observed and the 1- to 5-day-ahead predicted risk categories by kappa, which ranged from 65 % to 77 %. These results indicate that a model based on forecasted temperature and grass pollen counts performs well in predicting symptoms of hay fever up to 5 days ahead.

Extreme daily precipitation: the case of Serbia in 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tošić, Ivana; Unkašević, Miroslava; Putniković, Suzana

2017-05-01

The extreme daily precipitation in Serbia was examined at 16 stations during the period 1961-2014. Two synoptic situations in May and September of 2014 were analysed, when extreme precipitation was recorded in western and eastern Serbia, respectively. The synoptic situation from 14 to 16 May 2014 remained nearly stationary over the western and central Serbia for the entire period. On 15 May 2014, the daily rainfall broke previous historical records in Belgrade (109.8 mm), Valjevo (108.2 mm) and Loznica (110 mm). Precipitation exceeded 200 mm in 72 h, producing the most catastrophic floods in the recent history of Serbia. In Negotin (eastern Serbia), daily precipitation of 161.3 mm was registered on 16 September 2014, which was the maximum value recorded during the period 1961-2014. The daily maximum in 2014 was registered at 6 out of 16 stations. The total annual precipitation for 2014 was the highest for the period 1961-2014 at almost all stations in Serbia. A non-significant positive trend was found for all precipitation indices: annual daily maximum precipitation, the total precipitation in consecutive 3 and 5 days, the total annual precipitation, and number of days with at least 10 and 20 mm of precipitation. The generalised extreme value distribution was fitted to the annual daily maximum precipitation. The estimated 100-year return levels were 123.4 and 147.4 mm for the annual daily maximum precipitation in Belgrade and Negotin, respectively.

Evaluation of different methods to estimate daily reference evapotranspiration in ungauged basins in Southern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro Fontoura, Jessica; Allasia, Daniel; Herbstrith Froemming, Gabriel; Freitas Ferreira, Pedro; Tassi, Rutineia

2016-04-01

Evapotranspiration is a key process of hydrological cycle and a sole term that links land surface water balance and land surface energy balance. Due to the higher information requirements of the Penman-Monteith method and the existing data uncertainty, simplified empirical methods for calculating potential and actual evapotranspiration are widely used in hydrological models. This is especially important in Brazil, where the monitoring of meteorological data is precarious. In this study were compared different methods for estimating evapotranspiration for Rio Grande do Sul, the Southernmost State of Brazil, aiming to suggest alternatives to the recommended method (Penman-Monteith-FAO 56) for estimate daily reference evapotranspiration (ETo) when meteorological data is missing or not available. The input dataset included daily and hourly-observed data from conventional and automatic weather stations respectively maintained by the National Weather Institute of Brazil (INMET) from the period of 1 January 2007 to 31 January 2010. Dataset included maximum temperature (Tmax, °C), minimum temperature (Tmin, °C), mean relative humidity (%), wind speed at 2 m height (u2, m s-1), daily solar radiation (Rs, MJ m- 2) and atmospheric pressure (kPa) that were grouped at daily time-step. Was tested the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Penman-Monteith method (PM) at its full form, against PM assuming missing several variables not normally available in Brazil in order to calculate daily reference ETo. Missing variables were estimated as suggested in FAO56 publication or from climatological means. Furthermore, PM was also compared against the following simplified empirical methods: Hargreaves-Samani, Priestley-Taylor, Mccloud, McGuiness-Bordne, Romanenko, Radiation-Temperature, Tanner-Pelton. The statistical analysis indicates that even if just Tmin and Tmax are available, it is better to use PM estimating missing variables from syntetic data than simplified empirical methods evaluated except for Tanner-Pelton and Priestley-Taylor.

Limits to the thermal tolerance of corals adapted to a highly fluctuating, naturally extreme temperature environment

PubMed Central

Schoepf, Verena; Stat, Michael; Falter, James L.; McCulloch, Malcolm T.

2015-01-01

Naturally extreme temperature environments can provide important insights into the processes underlying coral thermal tolerance. We determined the bleaching resistance of Acropora aspera and Dipsastraea sp. from both intertidal and subtidal environments of the naturally extreme Kimberley region in northwest Australia. Here tides of up to 10 m can cause aerial exposure of corals and temperatures as high as 37 °C that fluctuate daily by up to 7 °C. Control corals were maintained at ambient nearshore temperatures which varied diurnally by 4-5 °C, while treatment corals were exposed to similar diurnal variations and heat stress corresponding to ~20 degree heating days. All corals hosted Symbiodinium clade C independent of treatment or origin. Detailed physiological measurements showed that these corals were nevertheless highly sensitive to daily average temperatures exceeding their maximum monthly mean of ~31 °C by 1 °C for only a few days. Generally, Acropora was much more susceptible to bleaching than Dipsastraea and experienced up to 75% mortality, whereas all Dipsastraea survived. Furthermore, subtidal corals, which originated from a more thermally stable environment compared to intertidal corals, were more susceptible to bleaching. This demonstrates that while highly fluctuating temperatures enhance coral resilience to thermal stress, they do not provide immunity to extreme heat stress events. PMID:26627576

Limits to the thermal tolerance of corals adapted to a highly fluctuating, naturally extreme temperature environment.

PubMed

Schoepf, Verena; Stat, Michael; Falter, James L; McCulloch, Malcolm T

2015-12-02

Naturally extreme temperature environments can provide important insights into the processes underlying coral thermal tolerance. We determined the bleaching resistance of Acropora aspera and Dipsastraea sp. from both intertidal and subtidal environments of the naturally extreme Kimberley region in northwest Australia. Here tides of up to 10 m can cause aerial exposure of corals and temperatures as high as 37 °C that fluctuate daily by up to 7 °C. Control corals were maintained at ambient nearshore temperatures which varied diurnally by 4-5 °C, while treatment corals were exposed to similar diurnal variations and heat stress corresponding to ~20 degree heating days. All corals hosted Symbiodinium clade C independent of treatment or origin. Detailed physiological measurements showed that these corals were nevertheless highly sensitive to daily average temperatures exceeding their maximum monthly mean of ~31 °C by 1 °C for only a few days. Generally, Acropora was much more susceptible to bleaching than Dipsastraea and experienced up to 75% mortality, whereas all Dipsastraea survived. Furthermore, subtidal corals, which originated from a more thermally stable environment compared to intertidal corals, were more susceptible to bleaching. This demonstrates that while highly fluctuating temperatures enhance coral resilience to thermal stress, they do not provide immunity to extreme heat stress events.

Temperatures in Excess of Critical Thresholds Threaten Nestling Growth and Survival in A Rapidly-Warming Arid Savanna: A Study of Common Fiscals

PubMed Central

Cunningham, Susan J.; Martin, Rowan O.; Hojem, Carryn L.

2013-01-01

Frequency, duration, and intensity of hot-weather events are all predicted to increase with climate warming. Despite this, mechanisms by which temperature increases affect individual fitness and drive population-level changes are poorly understood. We investigated the link between daily maximum air temperature (tmax) and breeding success of Kalahari common fiscals (Lanius collaris) in terms of the daily effect on nestling body-mass gain, and the cumulative effect on size and age of fledglings. High tmax reduced mass gain of younger, but not older nestlings and average nestling-period tmax did not affect fledgling size. Instead, the frequency with which tmax exceeded critical thresholds (tcrits) significantly reduced fledging body mass (tcrit = 33°C) and tarsus length (tcrit = 37°C), as well as delaying fledging (tcrit = 35°C). Nest failure risk was 4.2% per day therefore delays reduced fledging probability. Smaller size at fledging often correlates with reduced lifetime fitness and might also underlie documented adult body-size reductions in desert birds in relation to climate warming. Temperature thresholds above which organisms incur fitness costs are probably common, as physiological responses to temperature are non-linear. Understanding the shape of the relationship between temperature and fitness has implications for our ability to predict species’ responses to climate change. PMID:24040296

Validation of China-wide interpolated daily climate variables from 1960 to 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Wenping; Xu, Bing; Chen, Zhuoqi; Xia, Jiangzhou; Xu, Wenfang; Chen, Yang; Wu, Xiaoxu; Fu, Yang

2015-02-01

Temporally and spatially continuous meteorological variables are increasingly in demand to support many different types of applications related to climate studies. Using measurements from 600 climate stations, a thin-plate spline method was applied to generate daily gridded climate datasets for mean air temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation over China for the period 1961-2011. A comprehensive evaluation of interpolated climate was conducted at 150 independent validation sites. The results showed superior performance for most of the estimated variables. Except for wind speed, determination coefficients ( R 2) varied from 0.65 to 0.90, and interpolations showed high consistency with observations. Most of the estimated climate variables showed relatively consistent accuracy among all seasons according to the root mean square error, R 2, and relative predictive error. The interpolated data correctly predicted the occurrence of daily precipitation at validation sites with an accuracy of 83 %. Moreover, the interpolation data successfully explained the interannual variability trend for the eight meteorological variables at most validation sites. Consistent interannual variability trends were observed at 66-95 % of the sites for the eight meteorological variables. Accuracy in distinguishing extreme weather events differed substantially among the meteorological variables. The interpolated data identified extreme events for the three temperature variables, relative humidity, and sunshine duration with an accuracy ranging from 63 to 77 %. However, for wind speed, air pressure, and precipitation, the interpolation model correctly identified only 41, 48, and 58 % of extreme events, respectively. The validation indicates that the interpolations can be applied with high confidence for the three temperatures variables, as well as relative humidity and sunshine duration based on the performance of these variables in estimating daily variations, interannual variability, and extreme events. Although longitude, latitude, and elevation data are included in the model, additional information, such as topography and cloud cover, should be integrated into the interpolation algorithm to improve performance in estimating wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation.

Temperature Variability during Delirium in ICU Patients: An Observational Study

PubMed Central

van der Kooi, Arendina W.; Kappen, Teus H.; Raijmakers, Rosa J.; Zaal, Irene J.; Slooter, Arjen J. C.

2013-01-01

Introduction Delirium is an acute disturbance of consciousness and cognition. It is a common disorder in the intensive care unit (ICU) and associated with impaired long-term outcome. Despite its frequency and impact, delirium is poorly recognized by ICU-physicians and –nurses using delirium screening tools. A completely new approach to detect delirium is to use monitoring of physiological alterations. Temperature variability, a measure for temperature regulation, could be an interesting component to monitor delirium, but whether temperature regulation is different during ICU delirium has not yet been investigated. The aim of this study was to investigate whether ICU delirium is related to temperature variability. Furthermore, we investigated whether ICU delirium is related to absolute body temperature. Methods We included patients who experienced both delirium and delirium free days during ICU stay, based on the Confusion Assessment method for the ICU conducted by a research- physician or –nurse, in combination with inspection of medical records. We excluded patients with conditions affecting thermal regulation or therapies affecting body temperature. Daily temperature variability was determined by computing the mean absolute second derivative of the temperature signal. Temperature variability (primary outcome) and absolute body temperature (secondary outcome) were compared between delirium- and non-delirium days with a linear mixed model and adjusted for daily mean Richmond Agitation and Sedation Scale scores and daily maximum Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores. Results Temperature variability was increased during delirium-days compared to days without delirium (βunadjusted=0.007, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.004 to 0.011, p<0.001). Adjustment for confounders did not alter this result (βadjusted=0.005, 95% CI=0.002 to 0.008, p<0.001). Delirium was not associated with absolute body temperature (βunadjusted=-0.03, 95% CI=-0.17 to 0.10, p=0.61). This did not change after adjusting for confounders (βadjusted=-0.03, 95% CI=-0.17 to 0.10, p=0.63). Conclusions Our study suggests that temperature variability is increased during ICU delirium. PMID:24194955

Biophysics of Cold Adaptation and Acclimatization: Microbial Decomposition.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-03-01

plant communities. Parameters such as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity, as they are related to winds and sea ice, interact to produce the...predictable pattern, 9 the occurrence of clouds, precipitation and heavy fogs build to a maximum as the number of daily sunshine hours increases. At 12...August 2, the sun finally sets for 1 hour and 25 minutes. Climatic records kept since 1934 show low precipitation levels with a 40 year mean of 11.5 cm/yr

Aspects of Hydrological Modelling In The Punjab Himalayan and Karakoram Ranges, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loukas, A.; Khan, M. I.; Quick, M. C.

Various aspects of hydrologic modelling of high mountainous basins in the Punjab Hi- malayan and Karakoram ranges of Northern Pakistan were studied. The runoff from three basins in this region was simulated using the U.B.C. watershed model, which re- quires limited meteorological data of minimum and maximum daily temperature and precipitation. The structure of the model is based on the concept that the hydrolog- ical behavior is a function of elevation and thus, a watershed is conceptualized as a number of elevational zones. A simplified energy budget approach, which is based on daily maximum and minimum temperature and can account for forested and open areas, and aspect and latitude, is used in the U.B.C. model for the estimation of the snowmelt and glacier melt. The studied basins have different hydrological responses and limited data. The runoff from the first basin, the Astore basin, is mainly gener- ated by snowmelt. In the second basin, the Kunhar basin, the runoff is generated by snowmelt but significant redistribution of snow, caused by snow avalanches, affect the runoff generation. The third basin, the Hunza basin, is a highly glacierized basin and its runoff is mainly generated by glacier melt. The application of the U.B.C. watershed model to these three basins showed that the model could estimate reasonably well the runoff generated by the different components.

Effect of Climate Factors on the Childhood Pneumonia in Papua New Guinea: A Time-Series Analysis

PubMed Central

Kim, Jinseob; Kim, Jong-Hun; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Kim, Ho; Honda, Yasushi; Ha, Mina; Hashizume, Masahiro; Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis

2016-01-01

This study aimed to assess the association between climate factors and the incidence of childhood pneumonia in Papua New Guinea quantitatively and to evaluate the variability of the effect size according to their geographic properties. The pneumonia incidence in children under five-year and meteorological factors were obtained from six areas, including monthly rainfall and the monthly average daily maximum temperatures during the period from 1997 to 2006 from national health surveillance data. A generalized linear model was applied to measure the effect size of local and regional climate factor. The pooled risk of pneumonia in children per every 10 mm increase of rainfall was 0.24% (95% confidence interval: −0.01%–0.50%), and risk per every 1 °C increase of the monthly mean of the maximum daily temperatures was 4.88% (95% CI: 1.57–8.30). Southern oscillation index and dipole mode index showed an overall negative effect on childhood pneumonia incidence, −0.57% and −4.30%, respectively, and the risk of pneumonia was higher in the dry season than in the rainy season (pooled effect: 12.08%). There was a variability in the relationship between climate factors and pneumonia which is assumed to reflect distribution of the determinants of and vulnerability to pneumonia in the community. PMID:26891307

Fan cooling of the resting area in a free stalls dairy barn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calegari, Ferdinando; Calamari, Luigi; Frazzi, Ermes

2014-08-01

This summer study evaluated the effect of providing additional fans (cooling) in the resting area within a free-stall dairy barn that had fans and sprinklers in the feeding area and paddock availability. Thirty cows were divided into two homogenous groups and kept in two pens: one had the resting area equipped with two fans (FAN) while no fans were added to the other resting area (CON). Microclimatic parameters, rectal temperature (RT), breathing rate (BR), milk yield, and milk pH traits were recorded. Time budgeting and the behaviour of the cows (time spent in the feeding area, standing and lying in other areas) were also recorded using digital video technology. Two slight-to-moderate heat waves were observed. During the hottest period the daily maximum temperature recorded was 33.5 °C and the daily maximum THI was 81.6. During this period, the BR and RT increased only slightly in both groups, with lower BR (n.s.) in FAN compared with CON. Milk yield was better maintained (n.s.) in FAN compared with CON during the hottest period. The FAN cows showed a greater ( P < 0.05) lying time in the free stalls (9.5 and 8.6 h/day in FAN and CON, respectively), whereas CON cows made greater ( P < 0.05) use of the paddock during evening and late evening hours. Consequently, the total daily lying time was 13.5 h/day in both groups. In conclusion, the results suggest that using fans in the resting area improves cow comfort, which increases use of the resting area. The lying time results also suggest that the benefits of providing ventilation in the resting area might be more evident in barns where there is no paddock.

Searching for the best modeling specification for assessing the effects of temperature and humidity on health: a time series analysis in three European cities.

PubMed

Rodopoulou, Sophia; Samoli, Evangelia; Analitis, Antonis; Atkinson, Richard W; de'Donato, Francesca K; Katsouyanni, Klea

2015-11-01

Epidemiological time series studies suggest daily temperature and humidity are associated with adverse health effects including increased mortality and hospital admissions. However, there is no consensus over which metric or lag best describes the relationships. We investigated which temperature and humidity model specification most adequately predicted mortality in three large European cities. Daily counts of all-cause mortality, minimum, maximum and mean temperature and relative humidity and apparent temperature (a composite measure of ambient and dew point temperature) were assembled for Athens, London, and Rome for 6 years between 1999 and 2005. City-specific Poisson regression models were fitted separately for warm (April-September) and cold (October-March) periods adjusting for seasonality, air pollution, and public holidays. We investigated goodness of model fit for each metric for delayed effects up to 13 days using three model fit criteria: sum of the partial autocorrelation function, AIC, and GCV. No uniformly best index for all cities and seasonal periods was observed. The effects of temperature were uniformly shown to be more prolonged during cold periods and the majority of models suggested separate temperature and humidity variables performed better than apparent temperature in predicting mortality. Our study suggests that the nature of the effects of temperature and humidity on mortality vary between cities for unknown reasons which require further investigation but may relate to city-specific population, socioeconomic, and environmental characteristics. This may have consequences on epidemiological studies and local temperature-related warning systems.

Searching for the best modeling specification for assessing the effects of temperature and humidity on health: a time series analysis in three European cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodopoulou, Sophia; Samoli, Evangelia; Analitis, Antonis; Atkinson, Richard W.; de'Donato, Francesca K.; Katsouyanni, Klea

2015-11-01

Epidemiological time series studies suggest daily temperature and humidity are associated with adverse health effects including increased mortality and hospital admissions. However, there is no consensus over which metric or lag best describes the relationships. We investigated which temperature and humidity model specification most adequately predicted mortality in three large European cities. Daily counts of all-cause mortality, minimum, maximum and mean temperature and relative humidity and apparent temperature (a composite measure of ambient and dew point temperature) were assembled for Athens, London, and Rome for 6 years between 1999 and 2005. City-specific Poisson regression models were fitted separately for warm (April-September) and cold (October-March) periods adjusting for seasonality, air pollution, and public holidays. We investigated goodness of model fit for each metric for delayed effects up to 13 days using three model fit criteria: sum of the partial autocorrelation function, AIC, and GCV. No uniformly best index for all cities and seasonal periods was observed. The effects of temperature were uniformly shown to be more prolonged during cold periods and the majority of models suggested separate temperature and humidity variables performed better than apparent temperature in predicting mortality. Our study suggests that the nature of the effects of temperature and humidity on mortality vary between cities for unknown reasons which require further investigation but may relate to city-specific population, socioeconomic, and environmental characteristics. This may have consequences on epidemiological studies and local temperature-related warning systems.

Differences in the diurnal pattern of soil respiration under adjacent Miscanthus x giganteus and barley crops reveal potential flaws in accepted sampling strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keane, James; Ineson, Phil

2017-04-01

Soil respiration (Rs) plays an important role in the global carbon cycle and contributes ca. 30% of global ecosystem respiration.However, for convenience, measurements used to compare Rs from different land uses, crops or management practices are often made between 09:00 and 16:00, with an implicit assumption that Rs is largely controlled by temperature. Three months' continuous data presented here show distinctly different diurnal patterns of Rs between barley (Hordeum vulgare) and Miscanthus x giganteus (Miscanthus) grown on adjacent fields. Maximum Rs in barley occurred during the afternoon and correlated with soil temperature, whereas Rs peaked in Miscanthus during the night and was significantly correlated with earlier levels of solar radiation, probably due to delays in translocation of recent photosynthate. Since daily mean Rs in Miscanthus coincided with levels 40% greater than the mean in barley, it is vital to select appropriate times to measure Rs if only single daily measurements are to be made.

Millimeter radio evidence for containment mechanisms in solar flares

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayfield, E. B.; White, K. P., III; Shimabukuro, F. I.

1974-01-01

Recent theories of solar flares are reviewed with emphasis on the aspects of pre-flare heating. The heating evident at 3.3-mm wavelength is analyzed in the form of daily maps of the solar disk and synoptic maps compiled from the daily maps. It is found that isotherms defining antenna temperature enhancements of 340 K correspond in shape and location to facular areas reported by Waldmeier. Maximum enhancements occur over sunspots or near neutral lines of the longitudinal magnetic fields which indicates heating associated with chromospheric currents. These enhancements are correlated with flare importance number and are observed to increase during several days preceding flaring. This evidence for a containment mechanism in the chromosphere is collated with current theories of solar flares.

Abundance of adult saugers across the Wind River watershed, Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amadio, C.J.; Hubert, W.A.; Johnson, K.; Oberlie, D.; Dufek, D.

2006-01-01

The abundance of adult saugers Sander canadensis was estimated over 179 km of continuous lotic habitat across a watershed on the western periphery of their natural distribution in Wyoming. Three-pass depletions with raft-mounted electrofishing gear were conducted in 283 pools and runs among 19 representative reaches totaling 51 km during the late summer and fall of 2002. From 2 to 239 saugers were estimated to occur among the 19 reaches of 1.6-3.8 km in length. The estimates were extrapolated to a total population estimate (mean ?? 95% confidence interval) of 4,115 ?? 308 adult saugers over 179 km of lotie habitat. Substantial variation in mean density (range = 1.0-32.5 fish/ha) and mean biomass (range = 0.5-16.8 kg/ha) of adult saugers in pools and runs was observed among the study reaches. Mean density and biomass were highest in river reaches with pools and runs that had maximum depths of more than 1 m, mean daily summer water temperatures exceeding 20??C, and alkalinity exceeding 130 mg/L. No saugers were captured in the 39 pools or runs with maximum water depths of 0.6 m or less. Multiple-regression analysis and the information-theoretic approach were used to identify watershed-scale and instream habitat features accounting for the variation in biomass among the 244 pools and runs across the watershed with maximum depths greater than 0.6 m. Sauger biomass was greater in pools than in runs and increased as mean daily summer water temperature, maximum depth, and mean summer alkalinity increased and as dominant substrate size decreased. This study provides an estimate of adult sauger abundance and identifies habitat features associated with variation in their density and biomass across a watershed, factors important to the management of both populations and habitat. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

Estimating cumulative effects of clearcutting on stream temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartholow, J.M.

2000-01-01

The Stream Segment Temperature Model was used to estimate cumulative effects of large-scale timber harvest on stream temperature. Literature values were used to create parameters for the model for two hypothetical situations, one forested and the other extensively clearcut. Results compared favorably with field studies of extensive forest canopy removal. The model provided insight into the cumulative effects of clearcutting. Change in stream shading was, as expected, the most influential factor governing increases in maximum daily water temperature, accounting for 40% of the total increase. Altered stream width was found to be more influential than changes to air temperature. Although the net effect from clearcutting was a 4oC warming, increased wind and reduced humidity tended to cool the stream. Temperature increases due to clearcutting persisted 10 km downstream into an unimpacted forest segment of the hypothetical stream, but those increases were moderated by cooler equilibrium conditions downstream. The model revealed that it is a complex set of factors, not single factors such as shade or air temperature, that governs stream temperature dynamics.

Climate-change driven increase in high intensity rainfall events: Analysis of development in the last decades and towards an extrapolation of future progression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Eva; Pfister, Angela; Gerd, Büger; Maik, Heistermann; Bronstert, Axel

2015-04-01

Hydrological extreme events can be triggered by rainfall on different spatiotemporal scales: river floods are typically caused by event durations of between hours and days, while urban flash floods as well as soil erosion or contaminant transport rather result from storms events of very short duration (minutes). Still, the analysis of climate change impacts on rainfall-induced extreme events is usually carried out using daily precipitation data at best. Trend analyses of extreme rainfall at sub-daily or even sub-hourly time scales are rare. In this contribution two lines of research are combined: first, we analyse sub-hourly rainfall data for several decades in three European regions.Second, we investigate the scaling behaviour of heavy short-term precipitation with temperature, i.e. the dependence of high intensity rainfall on the atmospheric temperature at that particular time and location. The trend analysis of high-resolution rainfall data shows for the first time that the frequency of short and intensive storm events in the temperate lowland regions in Germany has increased by up to 0.5 events per year over the last decades. I.e. this trend suggests that the occurrence of these types of storms have multiplied over only a few decades. Parallel to the changes in the rainfall regime, increases in the annual and seasonal average temperature and changes in the occurrence of circulation patterns responsible for the generation of high-intensity storms have been found. The analysis of temporally highly resolved rainfall records from three European regions further indicates that extreme precipitation events are more intense with warmer temperatures during the rainfall event. These observations follow partly the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Based on this relation one may derive a general rule of maximum rainfall intensity associated to the event temperature, roughly following the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This rule might be used for scenarios of future maximum rainfall intensities under a warming climate.

The Effects of Industrial Protective Gloves and Hand Skin Temperatures on Hand Grip Strength and Discomfort Rating

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Daily working activities and functions require a high contribution of hand and forearm muscles in executing grip force. To study the effects of wearing different gloves on grip strength, under a variety of hand skin temperatures, an assessment of the maximum grip strength was performed with 32 healthy male workers with a mean age (standard deviation) of 30.44 (5.35) years wearing five industrial gloves at three hand skin temperatures. Their ages and anthropometric characteristics including body mass index (BMI), hand length, hand width, hand depth, hand palm, and wrist circumference were measured. The hand was exposed to different bath temperatures (5 °C, 25 °C, and 45 °C) and hand grip strength was measured using a Jamar hydraulic hand dynamometer with and without wearing the gloves (chemical protection glove, rubber insulating glove, anti-vibration impact glove, cotton yarn knitted glove, and RY-WG002 working glove). The data were analyzed using the Shapiro–Wilk test, Pearson correlation coefficient, Tukey test, and analysis of variance (ANOVA) of the within-subject design analysis. The results showed that wearing gloves significantly affected the maximum grip strength. Wearing the RY-WG002 working glove produced a greater reduction on the maximum grip when compared with the bare hand, while low temperatures (5 °C) had a significant influence on grip when compared to medium (25 °C) and high (45 °C) hand skin temperatures. In addition, participants felt more discomfort in both environmental extreme conditions. Furthermore, they reported more discomfort while wearing neoprene, rubber, and RY-WG002 working gloves. PMID:29207573

Cross-correlation map analyses show weather variation influences on mosquito abundance patterns in Saginaw County, Michigan, 1989-2005.

PubMed

Chuang, Ting-Wu; Ionides, Edward L; Knepper, Randall G; Stanuszek, William W; Walker, Edward D; Wilson, Mark L

2012-07-01

Weather is important determinant of mosquito abundance that, in turn, influences vectorborne disease dynamics. In temperate regions, transmission generally is seasonal as mosquito abundance and behavior varies with temperature, precipitation, and other meteorological factors. We investigated how such factors affected species-specific mosquito abundance patterns in Saginaw County, MI, during a 17-yr period. Systematic sampling was undertaken at 22 trapping sites from May to September, during 1989-2005, for 19,228 trap-nights and 300,770 mosquitoes in total. Aedes vexans (Meigen), Culex pipiens L. and Culex restuans Theobald, the most abundant species, were analyzed. Weather data included local daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, total precipitation, and average relative humidity. In addition to standard statistical methods, cross-correlation mapping was used to evaluate temporal associations with various lag periods between weather variables and species-specific mosquito abundances. Overall, the average number of mosquitoes was 4.90 per trap-night for Ae. vexans, 2.12 for Cx. pipiens, and 1.23 for Cx. restuans. Statistical analysis of the considerable temporal variability in species-specific abundances indicated that precipitation and relative humidity 1 wk prior were significantly positively associated with Ae. vexans, whereas elevated maximum temperature had a negative effect during summer. Cx. pipiens abundance was positively influenced by the preceding minimum temperature in the early season but negatively associated with precipitation during summer and with maximum temperature in July and August. Cx. restuans showed the least weather association, with only relative humidity 2-24 d prior being linked positively during late spring-early summer. The recently developed analytical method applied in this study could enhance our understanding of the influences of weather variability on mosquito population dynamics.

Fog as an ecosystem service: Quantifying fog-mediated reductions in maximum temperature across coastal to inland transects in northern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torregrosa, A.; Flint, L. E.; Flint, A. L.; Combs, C.; Peters, J.

2013-12-01

Several studies have documented the human benefits of temperature cooling derived from coastal fog such as the reduction in the number of hospital visits/emergency response requests from heat stress-vulnerable population sectors or decreased energy consumption during periods when summer maximum temperatures are lower than normal. In this study we quantify the hourly, daily, monthly and seasonal thermal effect of fog and low clouds (FLC) hours on maximum summer temperatures across a northern California landscape. The FLC data summaries are calculated from the CIRA (Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere) 10 year archive that were derived from hourly night and day images using channels 1 (Visible), 2 (3.6 μm) and 4 (10.7 μm) NOAA GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite). The FLC summaries were analyzed with two sets of site based data, meteorological (met) station-based measurements and downscaled interpolated PRISM data for selected point locations spanning a range of coastal to inland geographic conditions and met station locations. In addition to finding a 0.4 degree C per hour of FLC effect, our results suggest variability related to site specific thermal response. For example, sites closest to the coast have less thermal variability between low cloud and sunny days than sites further from the coast suggesting a much stronger influence of ocean temperature than of FLC thermal dynamics. The thermal relief provided by summertime FLC is equivalent in magnitude to the temperature increase projected by the driest and hottest of regional downscaled climate models using the A2 ('worst') IPCC scenario. Extrapolating these thermal calculations can facilitate future quantifications of the ecosystem service provided by summertime low clouds and fog.

Coherent variability between seasonal temperatures and rainfalls in the Iberian Peninsula, 1951-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, F. S.

2018-02-01

In this work trends of seasonal mean of daily minimum (TN), maximum (TX), mean (TM) temperatures, daily range of temperature (DTR), and total seasonal rainfall (R) in 35 Iberian stations since mid-twentieth century are studied. The interest is focused on the relationships between temperature variables and rainfall, taking into account the correlation coefficients between R and the temperature variables. The negative link between rainfall and temperatures is detected in the four seasons of the year, except in western stations in winter for TN and TM, and in autumn for TN (for this variable a certain annual cycle is detected, with predominance of positive correlation in winter, negative in spring and summer, and the autumn as transition season). The role of cloud cover is confirmed in those stations with total cloud cover data. Using an average peninsular series, the relationship between nighttime temperature and rainfall related to long wave radiation is confirmed for the four seasons of the year, although in spring and summer has minor importance than in the cold half year. The relationships between R, TN, and TX are in general terms stable after a moving correlation analysis, although the negative correlation between TX and R seems be weakened in spring and autumn and reinforced in summer. The role of convective precipitation in autumn is discussed. The analysis of combined extreme indices in four representative stations shows an increase of warm and dry days, and a decrease of cold and wet days.

Is weather related to the number of assaults seen at emergency departments?

PubMed

Lemon, D J; Partridge, R

2017-11-01

It is often suggested that the weather can effect behaviour, increasing the likelihood of assaults and resulting in increased admissions to emergency departments (ED). Therefor a better understanding of the effect of climatic conditions could be useful to help EDs in capacity planning. Whilst other studies have looked at this, none have used data collected specifically to look at ED attendance for assaults or have taken account of potential behaviour modifiers. We use data from our ED violence surveillance system, the Cardiff Model (CM), married to daily meteorological data to construct negative-binomial regression models. The models are used to estimate changes in the assault rate with changes in temperature, adjusting for day of the week and alcohol consumption. We find that there is 1% increase in the assault rate for every degree increase in the maximum daily temperature (IRR=1.01, P-value=0.033). Additionally, different patterns in alcohol consumption at weekends also provide a significant contribution. However, when we generalise this model to represent temperature in terms of factors of standard deviation from the mean temperature, the IRR relationship changes, plateauing at unusually high temperatures (±1.5 SD above the mean). The results presented here suggest that whilst temperature does increase the risk of assaults in Dorset, there may be a limit to its effect. This implies the 'curve-linear' relationship for temperature as suggested by others. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Raised temperatures over the Kericho tea estates: revisiting the climate in the East African highlands malaria debate.

PubMed

Omumbo, Judith A; Lyon, Bradfield; Waweru, Samuel M; Connor, Stephen J; Thomson, Madeleine C

2011-01-17

Whether or not observed increases in malaria incidence in the Kenyan Highlands during the last thirty years are associated with co-varying changes in local temperature, possibly connected to global changes in climate, has been debated for over a decade. Studies, using differing data sets and methodologies, produced conflicting results regarding the occurrence of temperature trends and their likelihood of being responsible, at least in part, for the increases in malaria incidence in the highlands of western Kenya. A time series of quality controlled daily temperature and rainfall data from Kericho, in the Kenyan Highlands, may help resolve the controversy. If significant temperature trends over the last three decades have occurred then climate should be included (along with other factors such as land use change and drug resistance) as a potential driver of the observed increases in malaria in the region. Over 30 years (1 January 1979 to 31 December 2009) of quality controlled daily observations ( > 97% complete) of maximum, minimum and mean temperature were used in the analysis of trends at Kericho meteorological station, sited in a tea growing area of Kenya's western highlands. Inhomogeneities in all the time series were identified and corrected. Linear trends were identified via a least-squares regression analysis with statistical significance assessed using a two-tailed t-test. These 'gold standard' meteorological observations were compared with spatially interpolated temperature datasets that have been developed for regional or global applications. The relationship of local climate processes with larger climate variations, including tropical sea surface temperatures (SST), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was also assessed. An upward trend of ≈0.2°C/decade was observed in all three temperature variables (P < 0.01). Mean temperature variations in Kericho were associated with large-scale climate variations including tropical SST (r = 0.50; p < 0.01). Local rainfall was found to have inverse effects on minimum and maximum temperature. Three versions of a spatially interpolated temperature data set showed markedly different trends when compared with each other and with the Kericho station observations. This study presents evidence of a warming trend in observed maximum, minimum and mean temperatures at Kericho during the period 1979 to 2009 using gold standard meteorological observations. Although local factors may be contributing to these trends, the findings are consistent with variability and trends that have occurred in correlated global climate processes. Climate should therefore not be dismissed as a potential driver of observed increases in malaria seen in the region during recent decades, however its relative importance compared to other factors needs further elaboration. Climate services, pertinent to the achievement of development targets such as the Millennium Development Goals and the analysis of infectious disease in the context of climate variability and change are being developed and should increase the availability of relevant quality controlled climate data for improving development decisions. The malaria community should seize this opportunity to make their needs heard.

Testing pop-up satellite tags as a tool for identifying critical habitat for Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) in the Gulf of Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Seitz, Andrew C.; Wilson, Derek; Nielsen, Jennifer L.

2002-01-01

To maintain healthy commercial and sport fisheries for Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis), critical habitat must be defined by determining life history patterns on a daily and seasonal basis. Pop-up satellite archival transmitting (PSAT) tags provide a fisheries-independent method of collecting environmental preference data (depth and ambient water temperature) as well as daily geolocation estimates based on ambient light conditions. In this study, 14 adult halibut (107-165 cm FL) were tagged and released with PSAT tags in and around Resurrection Bay, Alaska. Commercial fishermen recovered two tags, while five tags transmitted data to ARGOS satellites. Horizontal migration was not consistent among fish as three halibut remained in the vicinity of release while four traveled up to 358 km from the release site. Vertical migration was not consistent among fish and over time, but they spent most their time between 150-350 m. The minimum and maximum depths reached by any of the halibut were 2m and 502m, respectively. The fish preferred water temperatures of roughly 6 °C while experiencing ambient temperatures between 4.3 °C and 12.2 °C. Light attenuation with depth prevented existing geolocation software and light sensing hardware from accurately estimating geoposition, however, information from temperature, depth, ocean bathymetry, and pop-off locations provided inference on fish movement in the study area. PSAT tags were a viable tool for determining daily and seasonal behavior and identifying critical halibut habitat, which will aid fisheries managers in future decisions regarding commercial and sport fishing regulations.

Statistical inhomogeneity of dates of sudden stratospheric warmings in the wintertime northern hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savenkova, E. N.; Gavrilov, N. M.; Pogoreltsev, A. I.; Manuilova, R. O.

2017-05-01

Using the data of meteorological information reanalysis, a statistical analysis of dates of the main sudden stratospheric warmings observed in 1958-2014 has been performed and their inhomogeneous distribution in winter months with maximums in the beginning of January, from the end of January to the beginning of February, and in the end of February has been shown. To explain these regularities, a climatological analysis of variations in the amplitudes and vertical components of Eliassen-Palm fluxes created by large-scale planetary waves (PWs), as well as of zonal-mean winds and deviations of temperature from their winter-average values in high northern latitudes at heights of up to 50 km from the surface has been carried out using the 20-year (1995-2014) collection of daily meteorological information from the UK Met Office database. During the aforementioned intervals of observing more frequent sudden stratospheric warmings, climatological maximums of temperature perturbations, local minimums of eastward winds, and local maximums of the amplitude and Eliassen-Palm fluxes of PWs with a zonal wavenumber of 1 in the high-latitude northern stratosphere were found. Distinctions between atmospheric characteristics averaged over two last decades have been revealed.

The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030.

PubMed

Fann, Neal; Nolte, Christopher G; Dolwick, Patrick; Spero, Tanya L; Brown, Amanda Curry; Phillips, Sharon; Anenberg, Susan

2015-05-01

In this United States-focused analysis we use outputs from two general circulation models (GCMs) driven by different greenhouse gas forcing scenarios as inputs to regional climate and chemical transport models to investigate potential changes in near-term U.S. air quality due to climate change. We conduct multiyear simulations to account for interannual variability and characterize the near-term influence of a changing climate on tropospheric ozone-related health impacts near the year 2030, which is a policy-relevant time frame that is subject to fewer uncertainties than other approaches employed in the literature. We adopt a 2030 emissions inventory that accounts for fully implementing anthropogenic emissions controls required by federal, state, and/or local policies, which is projected to strongly influence future ozone levels. We quantify a comprehensive suite of ozone-related mortality and morbidity impacts including emergency department visits, hospital admissions, acute respiratory symptoms, and lost school days, and estimate the economic value of these impacts. Both GCMs project average daily maximum temperature to increase by 1-4°C and 1-5 ppb increases in daily 8-hr maximum ozone at 2030, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary greatly over space and time. We estimate tens to thousands of additional ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year for these two scenarios and calculate an economic burden of these health outcomes of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$). Near-term changes to the climate have the potential to greatly affect ground-level ozone. Using a 2030 emission inventory with regional climate fields downscaled from two general circulation models, we project mean temperature increases of 1 to 4°C and climate-driven mean daily 8-hr maximum ozone increases of 1-5 ppb, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary significantly over space and time. These increased ozone levels are estimated to result in tens to thousands of ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year and an economic burden of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$).

40 CFR 420.132 - Effluent limitations attainable by the application of the best practicable control technology...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... daily 1 Maximum monthly avg. 1 TSS 0.00998 0.00465 pH (2) (2) 1 Pounds per thousand pound of product. 2... Maximum daily 1 Maximum monthly avg. 1 O&G (as HEM) 0.00746 0.00446 TSS 0.0123 0.00508 pH (2) (2) 1 Pounds...

40 CFR 420.132 - Effluent limitations attainable by the application of the best practicable control technology...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... daily 1 Maximum monthly avg. 1 TSS 0.00998 0.00465 pH (2) (2) 1 Pounds per thousand pound of product. 2... Maximum daily 1 Maximum monthly avg. 1 O&G (as HEM) 0.00746 0.00446 TSS 0.0123 0.00508 pH (2) (2) 1 Pounds...

Growth and survival of Apache Trout under static and fluctuating temperature regimes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Recsetar, Matthew S.; Bonar, Scott A.; Feuerbacher, Olin

2014-01-01

Increasing stream temperatures have important implications for arid-region fishes. Little is known about effects of high water temperatures that fluctuate over extended periods on Apache Trout Oncorhynchus gilae apache, a federally threatened species of southwestern USA streams. We compared survival and growth of juvenile Apache Trout held for 30 d in static temperatures (16, 19, 22, 25, and 28°C) and fluctuating diel temperatures (±3°C from 16, 19, 22 and 25°C midpoints and ±6°C from 19°C and 22°C midpoints). Lethal temperature for 50% (LT50) of the Apache Trout under static temperatures (mean [SD] = 22.8 [0.6]°C) was similar to that of ±3°C diel temperature fluctuations (23.1 [0.1]°C). Mean LT50 for the midpoint of the ±6°C fluctuations could not be calculated because survival in the two treatments (19 ± 6°C and 22 ± 6°C) was not below 50%; however, it probably was also between 22°C and 25°C because the upper limb of a ±6°C fluctuation on a 25°C midpoint is above critical thermal maximum for Apache Trout (28.5–30.4°C). Growth decreased as temperatures approached the LT50. Apache Trout can survive short-term exposure to water temperatures with daily maxima that remain below 25°C and midpoint diel temperatures below 22°C. However, median summer stream temperatures must remain below 19°C for best growth and even lower if daily fluctuations are high (≥12°C).

Variability in Temperature-Related Mortality Projections under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Benmarhnia, Tarik; Sottile, Marie-France; Plante, Céline; Brand, Allan; Casati, Barbara; Fournier, Michel

2014-01-01

Background: Most studies that have assessed impacts on mortality of future temperature increases have relied on a small number of simulations and have not addressed the variability and sources of uncertainty in their mortality projections. Objectives: We assessed the variability of temperature projections and dependent future mortality distributions, using a large panel of temperature simulations based on different climate models and emission scenarios. Methods: We used historical data from 1990 through 2007 for Montreal, Quebec, Canada, and Poisson regression models to estimate relative risks (RR) for daily nonaccidental mortality in association with three different daily temperature metrics (mean, minimum, and maximum temperature) during June through August. To estimate future numbers of deaths attributable to ambient temperatures and the uncertainty of the estimates, we used 32 different simulations of daily temperatures for June–August 2020–2037 derived from three global climate models (GCMs) and a Canadian regional climate model with three sets of RRs (one based on the observed historical data, and two on bootstrap samples that generated the 95% CI of the attributable number (AN) of deaths). We then used analysis of covariance to evaluate the influence of the simulation, the projected year, and the sets of RRs used to derive the attributable numbers of deaths. Results: We found that < 1% of the variability in the distributions of simulated temperature for June–August of 2020–2037 was explained by differences among the simulations. Estimated ANs for 2020–2037 ranged from 34 to 174 per summer (i.e., June–August). Most of the variability in mortality projections (38%) was related to the temperature–mortality RR used to estimate the ANs. Conclusions: The choice of the RR estimate for the association between temperature and mortality may be important to reduce uncertainty in mortality projections. Citation: Benmarhnia T, Sottile MF, Plante C, Brand A, Casati B, Fournier M, Smargiassi A. 2014. Variability in temperature-related mortality projections under climate change. Environ Health Perspect 122:1293–1298; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306954 PMID:25036003

Benchmark Data Set for Wheat Growth Models: Field Experiments and AgMIP Multi-Model Simulations.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Martre, P.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P.J.; Rotter, R. P.

2015-01-01

The data set includes a current representative management treatment from detailed, quality-tested sentinel field experiments with wheat from four contrasting environments including Australia, The Netherlands, India and Argentina. Measurements include local daily climate data (solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, surface wind, dew point temperature, relative humidity, and vapor pressure), soil characteristics, frequent growth, nitrogen in crop and soil, crop and soil water and yield components. Simulations include results from 27 wheat models and a sensitivity analysis with 26 models and 30 years (1981-2010) for each location, for elevated atmospheric CO2 and temperature changes, a heat stress sensitivity analysis at anthesis, and a sensitivity analysis with soil and crop management variations and a Global Climate Model end-century scenario.

Modeling daily soil temperature over diverse climate conditions in Iran—a comparison of multiple linear regression and support vector regression techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delbari, Masoomeh; Sharifazari, Salman; Mohammadi, Ehsan

2018-02-01

The knowledge of soil temperature at different depths is important for agricultural industry and for understanding climate change. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of a support vector regression (SVR)-based model in estimating daily soil temperature at 10, 30 and 100 cm depth at different climate conditions over Iran. The obtained results were compared to those obtained from a more classical multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The correlation sensitivity for the input combinations and periodicity effect were also investigated. Climatic data used as inputs to the models were minimum and maximum air temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, dew point, and the atmospheric pressure (reduced to see level), collected from five synoptic stations Kerman, Ahvaz, Tabriz, Saghez, and Rasht located respectively in the hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, Mediterranean, and hyper-humid climate conditions. According to the results, the performance of both MLR and SVR models was quite well at surface layer, i.e., 10-cm depth. However, SVR performed better than MLR in estimating soil temperature at deeper layers especially 100 cm depth. Moreover, both models performed better in humid climate condition than arid and hyper-arid areas. Further, adding a periodicity component into the modeling process considerably improved the models' performance especially in the case of SVR.

Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 1: model construction and validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gosling, Simon N.; McGregor, Glenn R.; Páldy, Anna

2007-08-01

Heat waves are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. The first part of a study to produce projections of the effect of future climate change on heat-related mortality is presented. Separate city-specific empirical statistical models that quantify significant relationships between summer daily maximum temperature ( T max) and daily heat-related deaths are constructed from historical data for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London, and Sydney. ‘Threshold temperatures’ above which heat-related deaths begin to occur are identified. The results demonstrate significantly lower thresholds in ‘cooler’ cities exhibiting lower mean summer temperatures than in ‘warmer’ cities exhibiting higher mean summer temperatures. Analysis of individual ‘heat waves’ illustrates that a greater proportion of mortality is due to mortality displacement in cities with less sensitive temperature-mortality relationships than in those with more sensitive relationships, and that mortality displacement is no longer a feature more than 12 days after the end of the heat wave. Validation techniques through residual and correlation analyses of modelled and observed values and comparisons with other studies indicate that the observed temperature-mortality relationships are represented well by each of the models. The models can therefore be used with confidence to examine future heat-related deaths under various climate change scenarios for the respective cities (presented in Part 2).

Establishing a Water Resources Resilience Baseline for Mexico City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behzadi, F.; Ray, P. A.

2017-12-01

There is a growing concern for the vulnerability of the Mexico City water system to shocks, and the capacity of the system to accommodate climate and demographic change. This study presents a coarse-resolution, lumped model of the water system of Mexico City as a whole, designed to identify system-wide imbalances, and opportunities for large-scale improvements in city-wide resilience through investments in water imports, exports, and storage. In order to investigate the impact of climate change in Mexico City, the annual and monthly trends of precipitation and temperature at 46 stations near or inside the Mexico City were analyzed. The statistical significance of the trends in rainfall and temperature, both over the entire period of record, and the more recent "climate-change-impacted period" (1970-2015), were determined using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Results show a statistically significant increasing trend in the annual mean precipitation, mean temperature, and annual maximum daily temperature. However, minimum daily temperature does not appear to be increasing, and might be decreasing. Water management in Mexico City faces particular challenges, where the winter dry season is warming more quickly than the wet summer season. A stress test of Mexico City water system is conducted to identify vulnerabilities to changes in exogenous factors (esp., climate, demographics, land use). Following on the stress test, the relative merits of adaptation options that might improve the system's resilience and sustainability will be assessed.

Spatiotemporal Divergence of the Warming Hiatus over Land Based on Different Definitions of Mean Temperature

PubMed Central

Zhou, Chunlüe; Wang, Kaicun

2016-01-01

Existing studies of the recent warming hiatus over land are primarily based on the average of daily minimum and maximum temperatures (T2). This study compared regional warming rates of mean temperature based on T2 and T24 calculated from hourly observations available from 1998 to 2013. Both T2 and T24 show that the warming hiatus over land is apparent in the mid-latitudes of North America and Eurasia, especially in cold seasons, which is closely associated with the negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) and cold air propagation by the Arctic-original northerly wind anomaly into mid-latitudes. However, the warming rates of T2 and T24 are significantly different at regional and seasonal scales because T2 only samples air temperature twice daily and cannot accurately reflect land-atmosphere and incoming radiation variations in the temperature diurnal cycle. The trend has a standard deviation of 0.43 °C/decade for T2 and 0.41 °C/decade for T24, and 0.38 °C/decade for their trend difference in 5° × 5° grids. The use of T2 amplifies the regional contrasts of the warming rate, i.e., the trend underestimation in the US and overestimation at high latitudes by T2. PMID:27531421

Airborne pollen and spores of León (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-González, Delia; Suarez-Cervera, María; Díaz-González, Tomás; Valencia-Barrera, Rosa María

1993-06-01

A qualitative and quantitative analysis of airborne pollen and spores was carried out over 2 years (from September 1987 to August 1989) in the city of León. Slides were prepared daily using a volumetric pollen trap, which was placed on the Faculty of Veterinary Science building (University of León) 12m above ground-level. Fifty-one pollen types were observed; the most important of these were: Cupressaceae during the winter, Pinus and Quercus in spring, and Poaceae, Leguminosae and Chenopodiaceae in the summer. The results also showed the existence of a rich mould spore assemblage in the atmosphere. The group of Amerospores ( Penicillium, Aspergillus and Cladosporium) as well as Dictyospores ( Alternaria) were the most abundant; Puccinia was common in the air in August. Fluctuations in the total pollen and spores m3 of air were compared with meteorological parameters (temperature, relative humidity and rainfall). From the daily sampling of the atmosphere of León, considering the maximum and minimum temperature and duration of rainfall, the start of the pollen grain season was observed generally to coincide with a rise in temperature in the absence of rain.

Spatiotemporal Variability of Drought in Pakistan through High-Resolution Daily Gridded In-Situ Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bashir, F.; Zeng, X.; Gupta, H. V.; Hazenberg, P.

2017-12-01

Drought as an extreme event may have far reaching socio-economic impacts on agriculture based economies like Pakistan. Effective assessment of drought requires high resolution spatiotemporally continuous hydrometeorological information. For this purpose, new in-situ daily observations based gridded analyses of precipitation, maximum, minimum and mean temperature and diurnal temperature range are developed, that covers whole Pakistan on 0.01º latitude-longitude for a 54-year period (1960-2013). The number of participating meteorological observatories used in these gridded analyses is 2 to 6 times greater than any other similar product available. This data set is used to identify extreme wet and dry periods and their spatial patterns across Pakistan using Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Periodicity of extreme events is estimated at seasonal to decadal scales. Spatiotemporal signatures of drought incidence indicating its extent and longevity in different areas may help water resource managers and policy makers to mitigate the severity of the drought and its impact on food security through suitable adaptive techniques. Moreover, this high resolution gridded in-situ observations of precipitation and temperature is used to evaluate other coarser-resolution gridded products.

Incubation behavior adjustments, driven by ambient temperature variation, improve synchrony between hatch dates and caterpillar peak in a wild bird population.

PubMed

Simmonds, Emily G; Sheldon, Ben C; Coulson, Tim; Cole, Ella F

2017-11-01

For organisms living in seasonal environments, synchronizing the peak energetic demands of reproduction with peak food availability is a key challenge. Understanding the extent to which animals can adjust behavior to optimize reproductive timing, and the cues they use to do this, is essential for predicting how they will respond to future climate change. In birds, the timing of peak energetic demand is largely determined by the timing of clutch initiation; however, considerable alterations can still occur once egg laying has begun. Here, we use a wild population of great tits ( Parus major ) to quantify individual variation in different aspects of incubation behavior (onset, duration, and daily intensity) and conduct a comprehensive assessment of the causes and consequences of this variation. Using a 54-year dataset, we demonstrate that timing of hatching relative to peak prey abundance (synchrony) is a better predictor of reproductive success than clutch initiation or clutch completion timing, suggesting adjustments to reproductive timing via incubation are adaptive in this species. Using detailed in-nest temperature recordings, we found that postlaying, birds improved their synchrony with the food peak primarily by varying the onset of incubation, with duration changes playing a lesser role. We then used a sliding time window approach to explore which spring temperature cues best predict variance in each aspect of incubation behavior. Variation in the onset of incubation correlated with mean temperatures just prior to laying; however, incubation duration could not be explained by any of our temperature variables. Daily incubation intensity varied in response to daily maximum temperatures throughout incubation, suggesting female great tits respond to temperature cues even in late stages of incubation. Our results suggest that multiple aspects of the breeding cycle influence the final timing of peak energetic demand. Such adjustments could compensate, in part, for poor initial timing, which has significant fitness impacts.

Extreme summer temperatures in Iberia: health impacts and associated synoptic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Herrera, R.; Díaz, J.; Trigo, R. M.; Hernández, E.

2005-02-01

This paper examines the effect of extreme summer temperatures on daily mortality in two large cities of Iberia: Lisbon (Portugal) and Madrid (Spain). Daily mortality and meteorological variables are analysed using the same methodology based on Box-Jenkins models. Results reveal that in both cases there is a triggering effect on mortality when maximum daily temperature exceeds a given threshold (34°C in Lisbon and 36°C in Madrid). The impact of most intense heat events is very similar for both cities, with significant mortality values occurring up to 3 days after the temperature threshold has been surpassed. This impact is measured as the percentual increase of mortality associated to a 1°C increase above the threshold temperature. In this respect, Lisbon shows a higher impact, 31%, as compared with Madrid at 21%. The difference can be attributed to demographic and socio-economic factors. Furthermore, the longer life span of Iberian women is critical to explain why, in both cities, females are more susceptible than males to heat effects, with an almost double mortality impact value. The analysis of Sea Level Pressure (SLP), 500hPa geopotential height and temperature fields reveals that, despite being relatively close to each other, Lisbon and Madrid have relatively different synoptic circulation anomalies associated with their respective extreme summer temperature days. The SLP field reveals higher anomalies for Lisbon, but extending over a smaller area. Extreme values in Madrid seem to require a more western location of the Azores High, embracing a greater area over Europe, even if it is not as deep as for Lisbon. The origin of the hot and dry air masses that usually lead to extreme heat days in both cities is located in Northern Africa. However, while Madrid maxima require wind blowing directly from the south, transporting heat from Southern Spain and Northern Africa, Lisbon maxima occur under more easterly conditions, when Northern African air flows over the central Iberian plateau, which had been previously heated.

An Optically Accessible Pyrolysis Microreactor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baraban, Joshua H.; David, Donald E.; Ellison, Barney; Daily, John W.

2016-06-01

We report an optically accessible pyrolysis micro-reactor suitable for in situ laser spectroscopic measurements. A radiative heating design allows for completely unobstructed views of the micro-reactor along two axes. The maximum temperature demonstrated here is only 1300 K (as opposed to 1700 K for the usual SiC micro-reactor) because of the melting point of fused silica, but alternative transparent materials will allow for higher temperatures. Laser induced fluorescence measurements on nitric oxide are presented as a proof of principle for spectroscopic characterization of pyrolysis conditions. (This work has been published in J. H. Baraban, D. E. David, G. B. Ellison, and J. W. Daily. An Optically Accessible Pyrolysis Micro-Reactor. Review of Scientific Instruments, 87(1):014101, 2016.)

Uncertainty Assessment of the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP) Dataset

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Weile; Nemani, Ramakrishna R.; Michaelis, Andrew; Hashimoto, Hirofumi; Dungan, Jennifer L.; Thrasher, Bridget L.; Dixon, Keith W.

2016-01-01

The NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset is comprised of downscaled climate projections that are derived from 21 General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and across two of the four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Each of the climate projections includes daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation for the periods from 1950 through 2100 and the spatial resolution is 0.25 degrees (approximately 25 km x 25 km). The GDDP dataset has received warm welcome from the science community in conducting studies of climate change impacts at local to regional scales, but a comprehensive evaluation of its uncertainties is still missing. In this study, we apply the Perfect Model Experiment framework (Dixon et al. 2016) to quantify the key sources of uncertainties from the observational baseline dataset, the downscaling algorithm, and some intrinsic assumptions (e.g., the stationary assumption) inherent to the statistical downscaling techniques. We developed a set of metrics to evaluate downscaling errors resulted from bias-correction ("quantile-mapping"), spatial disaggregation, as well as the temporal-spatial non-stationarity of climate variability. Our results highlight the spatial disaggregation (or interpolation) errors, which dominate the overall uncertainties of the GDDP dataset, especially over heterogeneous and complex terrains (e.g., mountains and coastal area). In comparison, the temporal errors in the GDDP dataset tend to be more constrained. Our results also indicate that the downscaled daily precipitation also has relatively larger uncertainties than the temperature fields, reflecting the rather stochastic nature of precipitation in space. Therefore, our results provide insights in improving statistical downscaling algorithms and products in the future.

Downscaling RCP8.5 daily temperatures and precipitation in Ontario using localized ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) and bias correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Ziwang; Liu, Jinliang; Qiu, Xin; Zhou, Xiaolan; Zhu, Huaiping

2017-10-01

A novel method for daily temperature and precipitation downscaling is proposed in this study which combines the Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) and bias correction techniques. For downscaling temperature, the day to day seasonal cycle of high resolution temperature of the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) is used as background state. An enlarged ensemble of daily temperature anomaly relative to this seasonal cycle and information from global climate models (GCMs) are used to construct a gain matrix for each calendar day. Consequently, the relationship between large and local-scale processes represented by the gain matrix will change accordingly. The gain matrix contains information of realistic spatial correlation of temperature between different CFSR grid points, between CFSR grid points and GCM grid points, and between different GCM grid points. Therefore, this downscaling method keeps spatial consistency and reflects the interaction between local geographic and atmospheric conditions. Maximum and minimum temperatures are downscaled using the same method. For precipitation, because of the non-Gaussianity issue, a logarithmic transformation is used to daily total precipitation prior to conducting downscaling. Cross validation and independent data validation are used to evaluate this algorithm. Finally, data from a 29-member ensemble of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) GCMs are downscaled to CFSR grid points in Ontario for the period from 1981 to 2100. The results show that this method is capable of generating high resolution details without changing large scale characteristics. It results in much lower absolute errors in local scale details at most grid points than simple spatial downscaling methods. Biases in the downscaled data inherited from GCMs are corrected with a linear method for temperatures and distribution mapping for precipitation. The downscaled ensemble projects significant warming with amplitudes of 3.9 and 6.5 °C for 2050s and 2080s relative to 1990s in Ontario, respectively; Cooling degree days and hot days will significantly increase over southern Ontario and heating degree days and cold days will significantly decrease in northern Ontario. Annual total precipitation will increase over Ontario and heavy precipitation events will increase as well. These results are consistent with conclusions in many other studies in the literature.

Using the product threshold model for estimating separately the effect of temperature on male and female fertility.

PubMed

Tusell, L; David, I; Bodin, L; Legarra, A; Rafel, O; López-Bejar, M; Piles, M

2011-12-01

Animals under environmental thermal stress conditions have reduced fertility due to impairment of some mechanisms involved in their reproductive performance that are different in males and females. As a consequence, the most sensitive periods of time and the magnitude of effect of temperature on fertility can differ between sexes. The objective of this study was to estimate separately the effect of temperature in different periods around the insemination time on male and on female fertility by using the product threshold model. This model assumes that an observed reproduction outcome is the result of the product of 2 unobserved variables corresponding to the unobserved fertilities of the 2 individuals involved in the mating. A total of 7,625 AI records from rabbits belonging to a line selected for growth rate and indoor daily temperature records were used. The average maximum daily temperature and the proportion of days in which the maximum temperature was greater than 25°C were used as temperature descriptors. These descriptors were calculated for several periods around the day of AI. In the case of males, 4 periods of time covered different stages of the spermatogenesis, the transit through the epididymus of the sperm, and the day of AI. For females, 5 periods of time covered the phases of preovulatory follicular maturation including day of AI and ovulation, fertilization and peri-implantational stage of the embryos, embryonic and early fetal periods of gestation, and finally, late gestation until birth. The effect of the different temperature descriptors was estimated in the corresponding male and female liabilities in a set of threshold product models. The temperature of the day of AI seems to be the most relevant temperature descriptor affecting male fertility because greater temperature records on the day of AI caused a decrease in male fertility (-6% in male fertility rate with respect to thermoneutrality). Departures from the thermal zone in temperature descriptors covering several periods before AI until early gestation had a negative effect on female fertility, with the pre- and peri-implantational period of the embryos being especially sensitive (from -5 to -6% in female fertility rate with respect to thermoneutrality). The latest period of gestation was unaffected by the temperature. Overall, magnitude and persistency of the temperatures reached in the conditions of this study do not seem to be great enough to have a large effect on male and female rabbit fertility.

Effect of meteorological parameters on Poaceae pollen in the atmosphere of Tetouan (NW Morocco)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aboulaich, Nadia; Achmakh, Lamiaa; Bouziane, Hassan; Trigo, M. Mar; Recio, Marta; Kadiri, Mohamed; Cabezudo, Baltasar; Riadi, Hassane; Kazzaz, Mohamed

2013-03-01

Poaceae pollen is one of the most prevalent aeroallergens causing allergenic reactions. The aim of this study was to characterise the grass pollen season in Tetouan during the years 2008-2010, to analyse the effect of some meteorological parameters on the incidence of the airborne Poaceae pollen, and to establish forecasting variables for daily pollen concentrations. Aerobiological sampling was undertaken over three seasons using the volumetric method. The pollen season started in April and showed the highest pollen index in May and June, when the maximum temperature ranged from 23 to 27 °C, respectively. The annual pollen score recorded varied from year to year between 2,588 and 5,404. The main pollen season lasted 114-173 days, with peak days occurring mainly in May; the highest concentration reached 308 pollen grains/m3. Air temperature was the most important meteorological parameter and correlated positively to daily pollen concentration increase. An increase in relative humidity and precipitation was usually related to a decrease in airborne pollen content. External validation of the models performed using data from 2011 showed that Poaceae pollen concentration can be highly predicted (64.2-78.6 %) from the maximum temperature, its mean concentration for the same day in other years, and its concentration recorded on the previous day. Sensitive patients suffering allergy to Poaceae pollen are at moderate to highest risk of manifesting allergic symptoms to grass pollen over 33-42 days. The results obtained provide new information on the quantitative contribution of the Poaceae pollen to the airborne pollen of Tetouan and on its temporal distribution. Airborne pollen can be surveyed and forecast in order to warn the atopic population.

Torpor Patterns in Desert Hedgehogs (Paraechinus aethiopicus) Represent Another New Point along a Thermoregulatory Continuum.

PubMed

Boyles, Justin G; Bennett, Nigel C; Mohammed, Osama B; Alagaili, Abdulaziz N

Documenting variation in thermoregulatory patterns across phylogenetically and geographically diverse taxa is key to understanding the evolution of endothermy and heterothermy in birds and mammals. We recorded body temperature (T b ) in free-ranging desert hedgehogs (Paraechinus aethiopicus) across three seasons in the deserts of Saudi Arabia. Modal T b 's (35°-36.5°C) were slightly below normal for mammals but still warmer than those of other hedgehogs. The single maximum T b recorded was 39.2°C, which is cooler than maximum T b 's recorded in most desert mammals. Desert hedgehogs commonly used torpor during winter and spring but never during summer. Torpor bouts occurred frequently but irregularly, and most lasted less than 24 h. Unlike daily heterotherms, desert hedgehogs did occasionally remain torpid for more than 24 h, including one bout of 101 h. Body temperatures during torpor were often within 2°-3°C of ambient temperature; however, we never recorded repeated bouts of long, predictable torpor punctuated by brief arousal periods similar to those common among seasonal hibernators. Thus, desert hedgehogs can be included on the ever-growing list of species that display torpor patterns intermediate to traditionally defined hibernators and daily heterotherms. Extant hedgehogs are a recent radiation within an ancient family, and the intermediate thermoregulatory pattern displayed by desert hedgehogs is unlike the deeper and more regular torpor seen in other hedgehogs, suggesting that this may be a derived-as opposed to ancestral-trait in this subfamily. We suggest that this family (Erinaceidae) and order (Eulipotyphla) may be important for understanding the evolution of thermoregulatory patterns among Laurasiatheria and mammals in general.

Effect of meteorological parameters on Poaceae pollen in the atmosphere of Tetouan (NW Morocco).

PubMed

Aboulaich, Nadia; Achmakh, Lamiaa; Bouziane, Hassan; Trigo, M Mar; Recio, Marta; Kadiri, Mohamed; Cabezudo, Baltasar; Riadi, Hassane; Kazzaz, Mohamed

2013-03-01

Poaceae pollen is one of the most prevalent aeroallergens causing allergenic reactions. The aim of this study was to characterise the grass pollen season in Tetouan during the years 2008-2010, to analyse the effect of some meteorological parameters on the incidence of the airborne Poaceae pollen, and to establish forecasting variables for daily pollen concentrations. Aerobiological sampling was undertaken over three seasons using the volumetric method. The pollen season started in April and showed the highest pollen index in May and June, when the maximum temperature ranged from 23 to 27 °C, respectively. The annual pollen score recorded varied from year to year between 2,588 and 5,404. The main pollen season lasted 114-173 days, with peak days occurring mainly in May; the highest concentration reached 308 pollen grains/m(3). Air temperature was the most important meteorological parameter and correlated positively to daily pollen concentration increase. An increase in relative humidity and precipitation was usually related to a decrease in airborne pollen content. External validation of the models performed using data from 2011 showed that Poaceae pollen concentration can be highly predicted (64.2-78.6 %) from the maximum temperature, its mean concentration for the same day in other years, and its concentration recorded on the previous day. Sensitive patients suffering allergy to Poaceae pollen are at moderate to highest risk of manifesting allergic symptoms to grass pollen over 33-42 days. The results obtained provide new information on the quantitative contribution of the Poaceae pollen to the airborne pollen of Tetouan and on its temporal distribution. Airborne pollen can be surveyed and forecast in order to warn the atopic population.

Report: Total Maximum Daily Load Program Needs Better Data and Measures to Demonstrate Environmental Results

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report #2007-P-00036, September 19, 2007. EPA does not have comprehensive information on the outcomes of the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program nationwide, nor national data on TMDL implementation activities.

Influence of weather conditions on the flight of migrating black storks

PubMed Central

Chevallier, D.; Handrich, Y.; Georges, J.-Y.; Baillon, F.; Brossault, P.; Aurouet, A.; Le Maho, Y.; Massemin, S.

2010-01-01

This study tested the potential influence of meteorological parameters (temperature, humidity, wind direction, thermal convection) on different migration characteristics (namely flight speed, altitude and direction and daily distance) in 16 black storks (Ciconia nigra). The birds were tracked by satellite during their entire autumnal and spring migration, from 1998 to 2006. Our data reveal that during their 27-day-long migration between Europe and Africa (mean distance of 4100 km), the periods of maximum flight activity corresponded to periods of maximum thermal energy, underlining the importance of atmospheric thermal convection in the migratory flight of the black stork. In some cases, tailwind was recorded at the same altitude and position as the birds, and was associated with a significant rise in flight speed, but wind often produced a side azimuth along the birds' migratory route. Whatever the season, the distance travelled daily was on average shorter in Europe than in Africa, with values of 200 and 270 km d−1, respectively. The fastest instantaneous flight speeds of up to 112 km h−1 were also observed above Africa. This observation confirms the hypothesis of thermal-dependant flight behaviour, and also reveals differences in flight costs between Europe and Africa. Furthermore, differences in food availability, a crucial factor for black storks during their flight between Europe and Africa, may also contribute to the above-mentioned shift in daily flight speeds. PMID:20427337

Supporting Climatic Trends of Corn and Soybean Production in the USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, V.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Verdin, J. P.

2010-12-01

The United States of America (USA) is a major source of corn and soybeans, producing about 39 percent of the world’s corn and 50 percent of world’s soybean supply. The north central states, including parts of the Midwestern US and the Great Plains form what is commonly described as the “Corn Belt” and consist of the most productive grain growing region in the United States. Changes in climate, including precipitation and temperature, are being observed throughout the world, and the Corn Belt region of the US is not immune posing a potential threat to global food security. We conducted a retrospective analysis of observed climate variables and crop production statistics to evaluate if observed climatic trends are having a positive or negative effect on corn and soybean production in the US. We selected climate indices based on gridded daily precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature data from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) for the period of 1920-2009 and for 13 states in the Corn Belt region. We used the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for different periods overlapping the important seasons for crop growths, such as the planting (April-May), grain-filling (June-August), and harvesting (September -October) seasons. We estimated the seasonal average of maximum and minimum daily temperatures to identify the historic trends and variability in air temperature during the key crop-growth seasons. Extreme warm temperatures can affect crop growth and yields adversely; therefore, cumulative maximum air temperature above the 90th percentiles (e.g. Cumulative Heat Index) was estimated for each growing period. We evaluated historic trends and variability of areal extents of severe or extreme droughts along with the areal extents facing the high cumulative heat stress. Our results showed that climatic extremes (e.g. droughts and heat stress) that occurred during the period of June - August (JJA), affected the yields of corn and soybeans most severely. High moisture and low heat stress during the JJA period favored crop yields, while low moisture and high heat conditions during the planting season (April-May) increased yields. Results also indicated that this part of the US is trending towards lower heat stress and drought extents, and higher moisture conditions during the JJA period. Therefore, in future, if the present trends persist, we expect the climate will more supportive of increased corn and soybean yields.

a Weather Monitoring System for Application to Apple and Corn Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stirm, Walter Leroy

Many crop management decisions are based on weather -crop development relationships. Daily weather data is currently used in most crop development research and applied models. Present weather and computer technology now makes possible monitoring of crop development on a realtime basis. This research tests a method of computing crop sensitive temperatures for corn and apple using standard hourly meteorological data. The method also makes use of detailed plant physiological stage measurements to determine timing of vital cultural operations tied to the observed weather conditions. The sensitive temperature method incorporates very short term weather variability accounting for changes in the cloud cover, radiation rates, evaporative cooling and other factors involved in the plant's energy balance. The relationship of plant and weather measurements are also used to determine corn emergence, corn grain drydown rate and fruit harvest duration. The monitoring system also incorporates a crop growth unit forecast technique employing short and medium range temperature forecasts of the National Weather Service. The projections of growth units are made for five and ten days into the future. Predicted growth unit accumulations are compared to historical growth unit accumulations to determine the forecast stage. The sensitive temperature crop monitoring system removes some of the error involved in evaluation of growth units by average daily temperature. Carry over maximum and minimums, extended duration of warm or cool periods within the day and disruption of diurnal temperature curve by passage of fronts are eliminated.

Environmental Survival of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in Different Climatic Zones of Eastern Australia

PubMed Central

Begg, Douglas J.; Dhand, Navneet K.; Watt, Bruce; Whittington, Richard J.

2014-01-01

The duration of survival of both the S and C strains of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in feces was quantified in contrasting climatic zones of New South Wales, Australia, and detailed environmental temperature data were collected. Known concentrations of S and C strains in feces placed on soil in polystyrene boxes were exposed to the environment with or without the provision of shade (70%) at Bathurst, Armidale, Condobolin, and Broken Hill, and subsamples taken every 2 weeks were cultured for the presence of M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis. The duration of survival ranged from a minimum of 1 week to a maximum of 16 weeks, and the provision of 70% shade was the most important factor in extending the survival time. The hazard of death for exposed compared to shaded samples was 20 and 9 times higher for the S and C strains, respectively. Site did not affect the survival of the C strain, but for the S strain, the hazard of death was 2.3 times higher at the two arid zone sites (Broken Hill and Condobolin) than at the two temperate zone sites (Bathurst and Armidale). Temperature measurements revealed maximum temperatures exceeding 60°C and large daily temperature ranges at the soil surface, particularly in exposed boxes. PMID:24463974

Heat waves according to warm spell duration index in Slovakia during 1901-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bochníček, Oliver; Faško, Pavel; Markovič, Ladislav

2017-04-01

A heat wave is a prolonged period of extremely high temperatures for a particular region. However, there exist no universal definitions for a heat wave as it is relative to a specific area and to a certain time of year. In fact, average temperatures in one region may be considered heat wave conditions in another. For instance, an average day in the Mediterranean would be regarded as heat wave conditions in Northern Europe. We have known that World Meteorological Organization definition of a heatwave which is "when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 °C, the normal period being 1961-1990". This rule has been accepted in contribution Heat waves and warm periods in Slovakia (Oliver Bochníček - Pavol Fa\\vsko - Ladislav Markovič) published (presented) in EGU 2016. To move on we have tried another criterion for heat waves evaluation (according to warm spell duration index, WSDI) and period since 1901 (1951) to 2016. Important for many sectors (hydrology, agriculture, transportation and tourism) is, that heat waves have been expected during the whole year and period, that is why it can have various impacts. Heat waves occurrence gave us interesting results especially after the 1990.

Actual daily evapotranspiration estimated from MERIS and AATSR data over the Chinese Loess Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, R.; Wen, J.; Wang, X.; Wang, L.; Tian, H.; Zhang, T. T.; Shi, X. K.; Zhang, J. H.; Lu, Sh. N.

2009-02-01

The Loess Plateau is located in north of China and has a significant impact on the climate and ecosystem evolvement over the East Asian continent. Based on the land surface energy balance theory, the potential of using Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (onboard sensor of the Environmental Satellite) remote sensing data on 7, 11 and 27 June 2005 is explored. The "split-window" algorithm is used to retrieve surface temperature from the Advanced the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer, another onboard senor of the Environmental Satellite. Then the near surface net radiation, sensible heat flux and soil heat flux are estimated by using the developed algorithm. We introduce a simple algorithm to predict the heat flux partitioning between the soil and vegetation. Combining the sunshine hours, air temperature, sunshine duration and wind speed measured by weather stations, a model for estimating daily ET is proposed. The instantaneous ET is also converted to daily value. Comparison of latent heats flux retrieved by remote sensing data with ground observation from eddy covariance flux system during Loess Plateau land surface process field Experiment, the maximum and minimum error of this approach are 10.96% and 4.80% respectively, the cause of the bias is also explored and discussed.

Documentation of a deep percolation model for estimating ground-water recharge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bauer, H.H.; Vaccaro, J.J.

1987-01-01

A deep percolation model, which operates on a daily basis, was developed to estimate long-term average groundwater recharge from precipitation. It has been designed primarily to simulate recharge in large areas with variable weather, soils, and land uses, but it can also be used at any scale. The physical and mathematical concepts of the deep percolation model, its subroutines and data requirements, and input data sequence and formats are documented. The physical processes simulated are soil moisture accumulation, evaporation from bare soil, plant transpiration, surface water runoff, snow accumulation and melt, and accumulation and evaporation of intercepted precipitation. The minimum data sets for the operation of the model are daily values of precipitation and maximum and minimum air temperature, soil thickness and available water capacity, soil texture, and land use. Long-term average annual precipitation, actual daily stream discharge, monthly estimates of base flow, Soil Conservation Service surface runoff curve numbers, land surface altitude-slope-aspect, and temperature lapse rates are optional. The program is written in the FORTRAN 77 language with no enhancements and should run on most computer systems without modifications. Documentation has been prepared so that program modifications may be made for inclusions of additional physical processes or deletion of ones not considered important. (Author 's abstract)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shiogama, Hideo; Imada, Yukiko; Mori, Masato

Here, we describe two unprecedented large (100-member), longterm (61-year) ensembles based on MRI-AGCM3.2, which were driven by historical and non-warming climate forcing. These ensembles comprise the "Database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF)". We compare these ensembles to large ensembles based on another climate model, as well as to observed data, to investigate the influence of anthropogenic activities on historical changes in the numbers of record-breaking events, including: the annual coldest daily minimum temperature (TNn), the annual warmest daily maximum temperature (TXx) and the annual most intense daily precipitation event (Rx1day). These two climate model ensembles indicatemore » that human activity has already had statistically significant impacts on the number of record-breaking extreme events worldwide mainly in the Northern Hemisphere land. Specifically, human activities have altered the likelihood that a wider area globally would suffer record-breaking TNn, TXx and Rx1day events than that observed over the 2001- 2010 period by a factor of at least 0.6, 5.4 and 1.3, respectively. However, we also find that the estimated spatial patterns and amplitudes of anthropogenic impacts on the probabilities of record-breaking events are sensitive to the climate model and/or natural-world boundary conditions used in the attribution studies.« less

Temperature and Leaf Osmotic Potential as Factors in the Acclimation of Photosynthesis to High Temperature in Desert Plants 1

PubMed Central

Seemann, Jeffrey R.; Downton, W. John S.; Berry, Joseph A.

1986-01-01

Seasonal changes in the high temperature limit for photosynthesis of desert winter annuals growing under natural conditions in Death Valley, California were studied using an assay based upon chlorophyll fluorescence. All species of this group were 6 to 9°C more tolerant of high temperature at the end of the growing season (May) than at its beginning (February). Over this same time period, the mean daily maximum air temperatures increased by 12°C. Laboratory studies have demonstrated that increases in thermal tolerance could be induced by increasing growth temperature alone. For plants growing under field conditions there was also a good correlation between the thermal tolerance of leaves and the osmotic potential of leaf water, indicating that increases in the concentrations of some small molecules might also confer increased thermal tolerance. Isolated chloroplast thylakoids subjected to increasing concentrations of sorbitol could be demonstrated to have increased thermal tolerance. PMID:16664743

Impacts of Climatic Variability on Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreaks in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Hsiao, Hsin-I; Jan, Man-Ser; Chi, Hui-Ju

2016-01-01

This study aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between climate variation and incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. Specifically, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models (including autoregression, seasonality, and a lag-time effect) were employed to predict the role of climatic factors (including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, ocean temperature and ocean salinity) on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan between 2000 and 2011. The results indicated that average temperature (+), ocean temperature (+), ocean salinity of 6 months ago (+), maximum daily rainfall (current (−) and one month ago (−)), and average relative humidity (current and 9 months ago (−)) had significant impacts on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus. Our findings offer a novel view of the quantitative relationship between climate change and food poisoning by V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. An early warning system based on climate change information for the disease control management is required in future. PMID:26848675

The characteristics on spatiotemporal variations of summer heatwaves in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qixiang, C.; Wang, L.; Wu, S., II; Li, Y.

2016-12-01

Summer heatwaves in China have impacts on forestry, agriculture resource, infrastructure, and heat -related illness and mortality. Based on daily air temperature and relative humidity from the Chinese Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, the spatial distribution and trends of the intensity, duration, and frequency of heatwaves in China during 1960-2015 were analyzed. Considering climatic variability, we defined a heatwave as a spell of consecutive days with maximum temperatures exceeding the relative threshold (temperature percentile) .We also consider a indices combined hot days and tropical nights (CHT), and the humidity-corrected apparent temperature (AT) to analyze the health impacts of hot days in summer. This study shows that while the average frequency and duration of heatwaves has an increasing trend since 1990s, the North China Plain has a decreasing trend. This study also shows that the largest CHT values occur in southeast China, and the largest AT values occur in South China.

Impacts of Climatic Variability on Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreaks in Taiwan.

PubMed

Hsiao, Hsin-I; Jan, Man-Ser; Chi, Hui-Ju

2016-02-03

This study aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between climate variation and incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. Specifically, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models (including autoregression, seasonality, and a lag-time effect) were employed to predict the role of climatic factors (including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, ocean temperature and ocean salinity) on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan between 2000 and 2011. The results indicated that average temperature (+), ocean temperature (+), ocean salinity of 6 months ago (+), maximum daily rainfall (current (-) and one month ago (-)), and average relative humidity (current and 9 months ago (-)) had significant impacts on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus. Our findings offer a novel view of the quantitative relationship between climate change and food poisoning by V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. An early warning system based on climate change information for the disease control management is required in future.

The FORBIO Climate data set for climate analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delvaux, C.; Journée, M.; Bertrand, C.

2015-06-01

In the framework of the interdisciplinary FORBIO Climate research project, the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium is in charge of providing high resolution gridded past climate data (i.e. temperature and precipitation). This climate data set will be linked to the measurements on seedlings, saplings and mature trees to assess the effects of climate variation on tree performance. This paper explains how the gridded daily temperature (minimum and maximum) data set was generated from a consistent station network between 1980 and 2013. After station selection, data quality control procedures were developed and applied to the station records to ensure that only valid measurements will be involved in the gridding process. Thereafter, the set of unevenly distributed validated temperature data was interpolated on a 4 km × 4 km regular grid over Belgium. The performance of different interpolation methods has been assessed. The method of kriging with external drift using correlation between temperature and altitude gave the most relevant results.

Variations and trends of Fagaceae pollen in Northern Sardinia, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canu, Annalisa; Pellizzaro, Grazia; Arca, Bachisio; Vargiu, Arnoldo

2016-04-01

The aim of this study is to analyze variations in the start and the end dates of pollen season, date of maximum concentration peak, pollen season duration, pollen concentration value and Seasonal Pollen Index of airborne Fagaceae pollen series recorded in Sassari, Northern Italy, and to evaluate their relation to meteorological data. Daily pollen concentration data were measured from 1986 to 2008 in a urban area of northern Sardinia (Italy) using a Burkard seven-day recording volumetric spore trap. The date of the peak occurrence was defined as the day when the cumulated daily pollen values reached the 50 % of the total annual pollen concentration. Meteorological data were recorded during the same period by an automatic weather station. Cumulative Degree days were calculated, for each year, from different starting dates using the daily averaging method. The correlation between meteorological variables and the different characteristics of pollen seasons was analyzed using Spearman's correlation tests. In the city of Sassari the Fagaceae airborne pollen content was mainly due to Quercus. The main pollen season took place from April to June. The longest pollen season appeared in the year 2002. The cumulative counts varied over the years, with a mean value of 5,336 pollen grains, a lowest total of 550 in 1986 and a highest total of 8,678 in 2001. Daily pollen concentrations presented positive correlation with temperature, and negative with relative humidity (p<0,0001) and with rainfall. In addition, Cumulative Degree days were significantly correlated with the dates of maximum concentration peak (p<0,0001).

Trends in 1970-2010 southern California surface maximum temperatures: extremes and heat waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghebreegziabher, Amanuel T.

Daily maximum temperatures from 1970-2010 were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) for 28 South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) Cooperative Network (COOP) sites. Analyses were carried out on the entire data set, as well as on the 1970-1974 and 2006-2010 sub-periods, including construction of spatial distributions and time-series trends of both summer-average and annual-maximum values and of the frequency of two and four consecutive "daytime" heat wave events. Spatial patterns of average and extreme values showed three areas consistent with climatological SoCAB flow patterns: cold coastal, warm inland low-elevation, and cool further-inland mountain top. Difference (2006-2010 minus 1970-1974) distributions of both average and extreme-value trends were consistent with the shorter period (1970-2005) study of previous study, as they showed the expected inland regional warming and a "reverse-reaction" cooling in low elevation coastal and inland areas open to increasing sea breeze flows. Annual-extreme trends generally showed cooling at sites below 600 m and warming at higher elevations. As the warming trends of the extremes were larger than those of the averages, regional warming thus impacts extremes more than averages. Spatial distributions of hot-day frequencies showed expected maximum at inland low-elevation sites. Regional warming again thus induced increases at both elevated-coastal areas, but low-elevation areas showed reverse-reaction decreases.

Assessment of long-term monthly and seasonal trends of warm (cold), wet (dry) spells in Kansas, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dokoohaki, H.; Anandhi, A.

2013-12-01

A few recent studies have focused on trends in rainfall, temperature, and frost indicators at different temporal scales using centennial weather station data in Kansas; our study supplements this work by assessing the changes in spell indicators in Kansas. These indicators provide the duration between temperature-based (warm and cold) and precipitation-based (wet and dry) spells. For wet (dry) spell calculations, a wet day is defined as a day with precipitation ≥1 mm, and a dry day is defined as one with precipitation ≤1 mm. For warm (cold) spell calculations, a warm day is defined as a day with maximum temperature >90th percentile of daily maximum temperature, and a cold day is defined as a day with minimum temperature <10th percentile of daily minimum temperature. The percentiles are calculated for 1971-2000, and four spell indicators are calculated: Average Wet Spell Length (AWSL), Dry Spell Length (ADSL), Average Warm Spell Days (AWSD) and Average Cold Spell Days (ACSD) are calculated. Data were provided from 23 centennial weather stations across Kansas, and all calculations were done for four time periods (through 1919, 1920-1949, 1950-1979, and 1980-2009). The definitions and software provided by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were adapted for application to Kansas. The long- and short-term trends in these indices were analyzed at monthly and seasonal timescales. Monthly results indicate that ADSL is decreasing and AWSL is increasing throughout the state. AWSD and ACSD both showed an overall decreasing trend, but AWSD trends were variable during the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Results of seasonal analysis revealed that the fall season recorded the greatest increasing trend for ACSD and the greatest decreasing trend for AWSD across the whole state and during all time periods. Similarly, the greatest increasing and decreasing trends occurred in winter for AWSL and ADSL, respectively. These variations can be important indicators of climatic change that may not be represented in mean conditions. Detailed geographical and temporal variations of the spell indices also can be beneficial for updating management decisions and providing adaptation recommendations for local and regional agricultural production.

Use of a Weather Generator for analysis of projections of future daily temperature and its validation with climate change indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Piazza, A.; Cordano, E.; Eccel, E.

2012-04-01

The issue of climate change detection is considered a major challenge. In particular, high temporal resolution climate change scenarios are required in the evaluation of the effects of climate change on agricultural management (crop suitability, yields, risk assessment, etc.) energy production and water management. In this work, a "Weather Generator" technique was used for downscaling climate change scenarios for temperature. An R package (RMAWGEN, Cordano and Eccel, 2011 - available on http://cran.r-project.org) was developed aiming to generate synthetic daily weather conditions by using the theory of vectorial auto-regressive models (VAR). The VAR model was chosen for its ability in maintaining the temporal and spatial correlations among variables. In particular, observed time series of daily maximum and minimum temperature are transformed into "new" normally-distributed variable time series which are used to calibrate the parameters of a VAR model by using ordinary least square methods. Therefore the implemented algorithm, applied to monthly mean climatic values downscaled by Global Climate Model predictions, can generate several stochastic daily scenarios where the statistical consistency among series is saved. Further details are present in RMAWGEN documentation. An application is presented here by using a dataset with daily temperature time series recorded in 41 different sites of Trentino region for the period 1958-2010. Temperature time series were pre-processed to fill missing values (by a site-specific calibrated Inverse Distance Weighting algorithm, corrected with elevation) and to remove inhomogeneities. Several climatic indices were taken into account, useful for several impact assessment applications, and their time trends within the time series were analyzed. The indices go from the more classical ones, as annual mean temperatures, seasonal mean temperatures and their anomalies (from the reference period 1961-1990) to the climate change indices selected from the list recommended by the World Meteorological Organization Commission for Climatology (WMO-CCL) and the Research Programme on Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) project's Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI). Each index was applied to both observed (and processed) data and to synthetic time series produced by the Weather Generator, over the thirty year reference period 1981-2010, in order to validate the procedure. Climate projections were statistically downscaled for a selection of sites for the two 30-year periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2099 of the European project "Ensembles" multi-model output (scenario A1B). The use of several climatic indices strengthens the trend analysis of both the generated synthetic series and future climate projections.

Transcription through the eye of a needle: daily and annual cyclic gene expression variation in Douglas-fir needles.

PubMed

Cronn, Richard; Dolan, Peter C; Jogdeo, Sanjuro; Wegrzyn, Jill L; Neale, David B; St Clair, J Bradley; Denver, Dee R

2017-07-24

Perennial growth in plants is the product of interdependent cycles of daily and annual stimuli that induce cycles of growth and dormancy. In conifers, needles are the key perennial organ that integrates daily and seasonal signals from light, temperature, and water availability. To understand the relationship between seasonal cycles and seasonal gene expression responses in conifers, we examined diurnal and circannual needle mRNA accumulation in Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) needles at diurnal and circannual scales. Using mRNA sequencing, we sampled 6.1 × 10 9 reads from 19 trees and constructed a de novo pan-transcriptome reference that includes 173,882 tree-derived transcripts. Using this reference, we mapped RNA-Seq reads from 179 samples that capture daily and annual variation. We identified 12,042 diurnally-cyclic transcripts, 9299 of which showed homology to annotated genes from other plant genomes, including angiosperm core clock genes. Annual analysis revealed 21,225 circannual transcripts, 17,335 of which showed homology to annotated genes from other plant genomes. The timing of maximum gene expression is associated with light intensity at diurnal scales and photoperiod at annual scales, with approximately half of transcripts reaching maximum expression +/- 2 h from sunrise and sunset, and +/- 20 days from winter and summer solstices. Comparisons with published studies from other conifers shows congruent behavior in clock genes with Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria), and a significant preservation of gene expression patterns for 2278 putative orthologs from Douglas-fir during the summer growing season, and 760 putative orthologs from spruce (Picea) during the transition from fall to winter. Our study highlight the extensive diurnal and circannual transcriptome variability demonstrated in conifer needles. At these temporal scales, 29% of expressed transcripts show a significant diurnal cycle, and 58.7% show a significant circannual cycle. Remarkably, thousands of genes reach their annual peak activity during winter dormancy. Our study establishes the fine-scale timing of daily and annual maximum gene expression for diverse needle genes in Douglas-fir, and it highlights the potential for using this information for evaluating hypotheses concerning the daily or seasonal timing of gene activity in temperate-zone conifers, and for identifying cyclic transcriptome components in other conifer species.

Water-balance wodel of a wetland on the Fort Berthold Reservation, North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vining, Kevin C.

2007-01-01

A numerical water-balance model was developed to simulate the responses of a wetland on the Fort Berthold Reservation, North Dakota, to historical and possible extreme hydrological inputs and to changes in hydrological inputs that might occur if a proposed refinery is built on the reservation. Results from model simulations indicated that the study wetland would likely contain water during most historical and extreme-precipitation events with the addition of maximum potential discharges of 0.6 acre-foot per day from proposed refinery holding ponds. Extended periods with little precipitation and above-normal temperatures may result in the wetland becoming nearly dry, especially if potential holding-pond discharges are near zero. Daily simulations based on the historical-enhanced climate data set for May and June 2005, which included holding-pond discharges of 0.6 acre-foot per day, indicated that the study-wetland maximum simulated water volume was about 16.2 acre-feet and the maximum simulated water level was about 1.2 feet at the outlet culvert. Daily simulations based on the extreme summer data set, created to represent an extreme event with excessive June precipitation and holding-pond discharges of 0.6 acre-foot per day, indicated that the study-wetland maximum simulated water volume was about 38.6 acre-feet and the maximum simulated water level was about 2.6 feet at the outlet culvert. A simulation performed using the extreme winter climate data set and an outlet culvert blocked with snow and ice resulted in the greatest simulated wetland water volume of about 132 acre-feet and the greatest simulated water level, which would have been about 6.2 feet at the outlet culvert, but water was not likely to overflow an adjacent highway.

Gauging the Nearness and Size of Cycle Maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

2003-01-01

A simple method for monitoring the nearness and size of conventional cycle maximum for an ongoing sunspot cycle is examined. The method uses the observed maximum daily value and the maximum monthly mean value of international sunspot number and the maximum value of the 2-mo moving average of monthly mean sunspot number to effect the estimation. For cycle 23, a maximum daily value of 246, a maximum monthly mean of 170.1, and a maximum 2-mo moving average of 148.9 were each observed in July 2000. Taken together, these values strongly suggest that conventional maximum amplitude for cycle 23 would be approx. 124.5, occurring near July 2002 +/-5 mo, very close to the now well-established conventional maximum amplitude and occurrence date for cycle 23-120.8 in April 2000.

Applicability of AgMERRA Forcing Dataset to Fill Gaps in Historical in-situ Meteorological Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bannayan, M.; Lashkari, A.; Zare, H.; Asadi, S.; Salehnia, N.

2015-12-01

Integrated assessment studies of food production systems use crop models to simulate the effects of climate and socio-economic changes on food security. Climate forcing data is one of those key inputs of crop models. This study evaluated the performance of AgMERRA climate forcing dataset to fill gaps in historical in-situ meteorological data for different climatic regions of Iran. AgMERRA dataset intercompared with in- situ observational dataset for daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation during 1980-2010 periods via Root Mean Square error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Bias Error (MBE) for 17 stations in four climatic regions included humid and moderate, cold, dry and arid, hot and humid. Moreover, probability distribution function and cumulative distribution function compared between model and observed data. The results of measures of agreement between AgMERRA data and observed data demonstrated that there are small errors in model data for all stations. Except for stations which are located in cold regions, model data in the other stations illustrated under-prediction for daily maximum temperature and precipitation. However, it was not significant. In addition, probability distribution function and cumulative distribution function showed the same trend for all stations between model and observed data. Therefore, the reliability of AgMERRA dataset is high to fill gaps in historical observations in different climatic regions of Iran as well as it could be applied as a basis for future climate scenarios.

Evaluation of NLDAS 12-km and downscaled 1-km temperature products in New York State for potential use in health exposure response studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estes, M. G., Jr.; Insaf, T.; Crosson, W. L.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.

2017-12-01

Heat exposure metrics (maximum and minimum daily temperatures,) have a close relationship with human health. While meteorological station data provide a good source of point measurements, temporal and spatially consistent temperature data are needed for health studies. Reanalysis data such as the North American Land Data Assimilation System's (NLDAS) 12-km gridded product are an effort to resolve spatio-temporal environmental data issues; the resolution may be too coarse to accurately capture the effects of elevation, mixed land/water areas, and urbanization. As part of this NASA Applied Sciences Program funded project, the NLDAS 12-km air temperature product has been downscaled to 1-km using MODIS Land Surface Temperature patterns. Limited validation of the native 12-km NLDAS reanalysis data has been undertaken. Our objective is to evaluate the accuracy of both the 12-km and 1-km downscaled products using the US Historical Climatology Network station data geographically dispersed across New York State. Statistical methods including correlation, scatterplots, time series and summary statistics were used to determine the accuracy of the remotely-sensed maximum and minimum temperature products. The specific effects of elevation and slope on remotely-sensed temperature product accuracy were determined with 10-m digital elevation data that were used to calculate percent slope and link with the temperature products at multiple scales. Preliminary results indicate the downscaled temperature product improves accuracy over the native 12-km temperature product with average correlation improvements from 0.81 to 0.85 for minimum and 0.71 to 0.79 for maximum temperatures in 2009. However, the benefits vary temporally and geographically. Our results will inform health studies using remotely-sensed temperature products to determine health risk from excessive heat by providing a more robust assessment of the accuracy of the 12-km NLDAS product and additional accuracy gained from the 1-km downscaled product. Also, the results will be shared with the National Weather Service to determine potential benefits to heat warning systems and evaluated for inclusion in the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Environmental Public Health Tracking Network as a resource for the health community.

Temporal variation of mass-wasting activity in Mount St. Helens crater, Washington, U. S. A. indicated by seismic activity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mills, H.H.

1991-11-01

In the crater of Mount St. Helens, formed during the eruption of 18 May 1980, thousands of rockfalls may occur in a single day, and some rock and dirty-snow avalanches have traveled more than 1 km from their source. Because most seismic activity in the crater is produced by mass wasting, the former can be used to monitor the latter. The number and amplitude of seismic events per unit time provide a generalized measure of mass-wasting activity. In this study 1-min averages of seismic amplitudes were used as an index of rockfall activity during summer and early fall. Plots ofmore » this index show the diurnal cycle of rockfall activity and establish that the peak in activity occurs in mid to late afternoon. A correlation coefficient of 0.61 was found between daily maximum temperature and average seismic amplitude, although this value increases to 0.72 if a composite temperature variable that includes the maximum temperature of 1 to 3 preceding days as well as the present day is used. Correlation with precipitation is much weaker.« less

Extreme temperature indices analyses: A case study of five meteorological stations in Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Husna; Salleh, Nur Hanim Mohd

2015-10-01

Extreme temperature events affect many human and natural systems. Changes in extreme temperature events can be detected and monitored by developing the indices based on the extreme temperature data. As an effort to provide the understanding of these changes to the public, a study of extreme temperature indices is conducted at five meteorological stations in Peninsular Malaysia. In this study, changes in the means and extreme events of temperature are assessed and compared using the daily maximum and minimum temperature data for the period of 2004 to 2013. The absolute extreme temperature indices; TXx, TXn, TXn and TNn provided by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) are utilized and linear trends of each index are extracted using least square likelihood method. The results indicate that there exist significant decreasing trend in the TXx index for Kota Bharu station and increasing trend in TNn index for Chuping and Kota Kinabalu stations. The comparison between the trend in mean and extreme temperatures show the same significant tendency for Kota Bharu and Kuala Terengganu stations.

EMISSION OF OZONE IN THE VALE DO PARAÍBA REGION, IN SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL, FOR THE YEAR 2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dos Santos Zepka, A.; Sales, A. B.; Alvalá, P. C.

2009-12-01

The city of São José dos Campos (São Paulo, Brazil) in recent years has shown strong growth and current increase in industrial economy, leading to a sharp urban development and consequent problems of air pollution. The ozone is a major greenhouse gas, present in the troposphere by photochemical reactions in natural emissions of anthropogenic and biogenic hydrocarbons such as volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides, which can come from lightning and soil. Due to the fact that this gas is considered the main pollutant responsible for poor air quality, the objective of this study was to characterize the behavior of the emission of ozone in the Vale do Paraíba region, in Southeastern Brazil, in association with meteorological parameters. Researches in this area are essential, because of the need for better knowledge on air quality at regional and global. The motivation for this study was based on the fact that the ozone near the surface can be considered a gas harmful to human and animal health, crops and forests as well of urban areas in general, besides being used as a major indicators of air quality by agencies of monitoring environment, such as the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), for example. This study is an initial analysis that will lead to a better understanding of chemical and physical processes that occur in the atmosphere of the city and region. Ozone and meteorological data were obtained from two locations in the city, known as INPE (23°12,04'S; 45°51,06'W) and UNIVAP (23°12,05'S; 45°57,02'W) during the year 2007. The ozone data were obtained every 15 minutes and converted in hourly and daily averages. In addition, were collected the maximum and minimum measure daily. The ozone showed similar behavior to temperature and irradiance for the period studied. In spring and summer there was an increase of ozone mixing ratio, which was produced photochemically during the increase of solar irradiance. Moreover, the periods of autumn and winter, which irradiance in São José dos Campos city is lower due to the combination between the inclination of the Earth rotation axis with the local latitude, presented a reduction in the gas mixture ratio. The daily average curves of the ozone and irradiance shown that there is a difference of approximately two hours between them. This behavior suggests that this is the time required for happen the photochemical reactions involving the production of ozone. The maximum values of ozone were observed at around 15 pm (local time), when occurred the maximum daytime temperature, increasing the production of gas compared to consumption reactions. In spring and summer (stations of higher temperatures), the daily average curve was proportional between ozone and temperature. The same relationship has not been observed in autumn and winter, because in such seasons the concentrations of ozone began to increase after the increase in temperature. Contrary to what was observed in UNIVAP, in the INPE, there were measures of the lower concentration of ozone, suggesting that perhaps this low concentration is not due the transport of ozone pollution for the region, but by the low intensity of the wind and also by higher humidity, which favors the consumption of ozone at site.

Warm Season Temperatures and Emergency Department Visits in Atlanta, Georgia

PubMed Central

Winquist, Andrea; Grundstein, Andrew; Chang, Howard H.; Hess, Jeremy; Sarnat, Stefanie Ebelt

2016-01-01

Purpose Extreme heat events will likely increase in frequency with climate change. Heat-related health effects are better documented among the elderly than among younger age groups. We assessed associations between warm-season ambient temperature and emergency department (ED) visits across ages in Atlanta during 1993-2012. Methods We examined daily counts of ED visits with primary diagnoses of heat illness, fluid/electrolyte imbalances, renal disease, cardiorespiratory diseases, and intestinal infections by age group (0-4, 5-18, 19-64, 65+ years) in relation to daily maximum temperature (TMX) using Poisson time series models that included cubic terms for TMX at single-day lags of 0-6 days, controlling for maximum dew-point temperature, time trends, week day, holidays, and hospital participation periods. We estimated rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for TMX changes from 27 °C to 32 °C (25th to 75th percentile) and conducted extensive sensitivity analyses. Results We observed associations between TMX and ED visits for all internal causes, heat illness, fluid/electrolyte imbalances, renal diseases, asthma/wheeze, diabetes, and intestinal infections. Age groups with the strongest observed associations were 65+ years for all internal causes [lag 0 RR (CI)=1.022 (1.016-1.028)] and diabetes [lag 0 RR=1.050 (1.008-1.095)]; 19-64 years for fluid/electrolyte imbalances [lag 0 RR=1.170 (1.136-1.205)] and renal disease [lag 1 RR=1.082 (1.065-1.099)]; and 5-18 years for asthma/wheeze [lag 2 RR=1.059 (1.030-1.088)] and intestinal infections [lag 1 RR=1.120 (1.041-1.205)]. Conclusions Varying strengths of associations between TMX and ED visits by age suggest that optimal interventions and health-impact projections would account for varying heat health impacts across ages. PMID:26922412

Staying cool in a changing landscape: the influence of maximum daily ambient temperature on grizzly bear habitat selection.

PubMed

Pigeon, Karine E; Cardinal, Etienne; Stenhouse, Gordon B; Côté, Steeve D

2016-08-01

To fulfill their needs, animals are constantly making trade-offs among limiting factors. Although there is growing evidence about the impact of ambient temperature on habitat selection in mammals, the role of environmental conditions and thermoregulation on apex predators is poorly understood. Our objective was to investigate the influence of ambient temperature on habitat selection patterns of grizzly bears in the managed landscape of Alberta, Canada. Grizzly bear habitat selection followed a daily and seasonal pattern that was influenced by ambient temperature, with adult males showing stronger responses than females to warm temperatures. Cutblocks aged 0-20 years provided an abundance of forage but were on average 6 °C warmer than mature conifer stands and 21- to 40-year-old cutblocks. When ambient temperatures increased, the relative change (odds ratio) in the probability of selection for 0- to 20-year-old cutblocks decreased during the hottest part of the day and increased during cooler periods, especially for males. Concurrently, the probability of selection for 21- to 40-year-old cutblocks increased on warmer days. Following plant phenology, the odds of selecting 0- to 20-year-old cutblocks also increased from early to late summer while the odds of selecting 21- to 40-year-old cutblocks decreased. Our results demonstrate that ambient temperatures, and therefore thermal requirements, play a significant role in habitat selection patterns and behaviour of grizzly bears. In a changing climate, large mammals may increasingly need to adjust spatial and temporal selection patterns in response to thermal constraints.

Analysis of trends in selected streamflow statistics for the Concho River Basin, Texas, 1916-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbie, Dana L.; Wehmeyer, Loren L.; May, Jayne E.

2012-01-01

Six U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations were selected for analysis. Streamflow-gaging station 08128000 South Concho River at Christoval has downward trends for annual maximum daily discharge and annual instantaneous peak discharge for the combined period 1931-95, 2002-9. Streamflow-gaging station 08128400 Middle Concho River above Tankersley has downward trends for annual maximum daily discharge and annual instantaneous peak discharge for the combined period 1962-95, 2002-9. Streamflow-gaging station 08128500 Middle Concho River near Tankersley has no significant trends in the streamflow statistics considered for the period 1931-60. Streamflow-gaging station 08134000 North Concho River near Carlsbad has downward trends for annual mean daily discharge, annual 7-day minimum daily discharge, annual maximum daily discharge, and annual instantaneous peak discharge for the period 1925-2009. Streamflow-gaging stations 08136000 Concho River at San Angelo and 08136500 Concho River at Paint Rock have downward trends for 1916-2009 for all streamflow statistics calculated, but streamflow-gaging station 08136000 Concho River at San Angelo has an upward trend for annual maximum daily discharge during 1964-2009. The downward trends detected during 1916-2009 for the Concho River at San Angelo are not unexpected because of three reservoirs impounding and profoundly regulating streamflow.

A Water Temperature Simulation Model for Rice Paddies With Variable Water Depths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maruyama, Atsushi; Nemoto, Manabu; Hamasaki, Takahiro; Ishida, Sachinobu; Kuwagata, Tsuneo

2017-12-01

A water temperature simulation model was developed to estimate the effects of water management on the thermal environment in rice paddies. The model was based on two energy balance equations: for the ground and for the vegetation, and considered the water layer and changes in the aerodynamic properties of its surface with water depth. The model was examined with field experiments for water depths of 0 mm (drained conditions) and 100 mm (flooded condition) at two locations. Daily mean water temperatures in the flooded condition were mostly higher than in the drained condition in both locations, and the maximum difference reached 2.6°C. This difference was mainly caused by the difference in surface roughness of the ground. Heat exchange by free convection played an important role in determining water temperature. From the model simulation, the temperature difference between drained and flooded conditions was more apparent under low air temperature and small leaf area index conditions; the maximum difference reached 3°C. Most of this difference occurred when the range of water depth was lower than 50 mm. The season-long variation in modeled water temperature showed good agreement with an observation data set from rice paddies with various rice-growing seasons, for a diverse range of water depths (root mean square error of 0.8-1.0°C). The proposed model can estimate water temperature for a given water depth, irrigation, and drainage conditions, which will improve our understanding of the effect of water management on plant growth and greenhouse gas emissions through the thermal environment of rice paddies.

New insights into biogeochemical processing gained from sub-daily river monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halliday, S. J.; Wade, A. J.; Skeffington, R. A.; Bowes, M.; Palmer-Felgate, E.; Loewenthal, M.; Jarvie, H.; Neal, C.; Reynolds, B.; Gozzard, E.; Newman, J.

2012-12-01

This talk will focus on the insights obtained from sub-daily hydrochemical monitoring for a sustained time periods (> 1 year), at multiple sites within a catchment and across different catchment types. Sub-daily instream hydrochemical dynamics were investigated, using non-stationary time-series analysis techniques, for two catchments representative of upland and lowland UK. The River Hafren at Plynlimon, mid-Wales drains an upland catchment where half the land cover is unmanaged moorland and the other half is first generation plantation forestry. The Hafren was monitored at two sites on a 7-hourly basis, between March 2007 and January 2009, using a Xian automatic sampler. The River Enborne, Berkshire, southeast England, is a rural lowland catchment, impacted by agricultural runoff, and septic tank and sewage treatment works discharges. The Enborne was monitored on an hourly basis between November 2009 and February 2012, using in situ field deployable analytical equipment to measure: Total Reactive Phosphorus (TRP: Systea Micromac C), Nitrate (Hach-Lange Nitratax), pH, dissolved oxygen, conductivity and water temperature (YSI 6600 Multi-parameter sonde). The results reveal complex diurnal patterns which exhibit seasonal changes in phase and amplitude, and are influenced by both flow conditions and nutrient sources. The comparison of the upland and lowland nitrate time series highlights how the different nitrogen sources within each system results in marked differences in the seasonal and diurnal dynamics, with a seasonal maximum in winter and a single peak diurnal cycle in the upland system, compared to a summer maximum and a two peak diurnal cycle in the lowland system. The analysis of TRP and nitrate concentrations in the Enborne catchment, in combination with flow, pH, dissolved oxygen, conductivity and water temperature, allowed the main processes controlling the observed sub-daily nutrient dynamics to be investigated. The different monitoring approaches adopted revealed the complexities involved in the accurate extraction of diurnal dynamics under lower frequency sampling, and the inherent issues of aliasing. Monitoring for 2 years also allowed an initial assessment of the inter-annual variability in the observed dynamics.

Patterns of odour emission, thermogenesis and pollinator activity in cones of an African cycad: what mechanisms apply?

PubMed Central

Suinyuy, Terence N.; Donaldson, John S.; Johnson, Steven D.

2013-01-01

Background and Aims Ontogenetic patterns of odour emissions and heating associated with plant reproductive structures may have profound effects on insect behaviour, and consequently on pollination. In some cycads, notably Macrozamia, temporal changes in emission of specific odour compounds and temperature have been interpreted as a ‘push–pull’ interaction in which pollinators are either attracted or repelled according to the concentration of the emitted volatiles. To establish which mechanisms occur in the large Encephalartos cycad clade, the temporal patterns of volatile emissions, heating and pollinator activity of cones of Encephalartos villosus in the Eastern Cape (EC) and KwaZulu Natal (KZN) of South Africa were investigated. Methods and Key Results Gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analyses of Encephalartos villosus cone volatiles showed that emissions, dominated by eucalyptol and 2-isopropyl-3-methoxypyrazine in EC populations and (3E)-1,3-octadiene and (3E,5Z)-1,3,5-octatriene in the KZN populations, varied across developmental stages but did not vary significantly on a daily cycle. Heating in male cones was higher at dehiscence than during pre- and post-dehiscence, and reached a maximum at about 1830 h when temperatures were between 7·0 and 12·0 °C above ambient. Daily heating of female cones was less pronounced and reached a maximum at about 1345 h when it was on average between 0·9 and 3·0 °C above ambient. Insect abundance on male cones was higher at dehiscence than at the other stages and significantly higher in the afternoon than in the morning and evening. Conclusions There are pronounced developmental changes in volatile emissions and heating in E. villosus cones, as well as strong daily changes in thermogenesis. Daily patterns of volatile emissions and pollinator abundance in E. villosus are different from those observed in some Macrozamia cycads and not consistent with the push–pull pattern as periods of peak odour emission do not coincide with mass exodus of insects from male cones. PMID:23887092

Selected micrometeorological and soil-moisture data at Amargosa Desert Research Site, an arid site near Beatty, Nye County, Nevada, 1998-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Michael J.; Mayers, Charles J.; Andraski, Brian J.

2002-01-01

Selected micrometeorological and soil-moisture data were collected at the Amargosa Desert Research Site adjacent to a low-level radioactive waste and hazardous chemical waste facility near Beatty, Nev., 1998-2000. Data were collected in support of ongoing research studies to improve the understanding of hydrologic and contaminant-transport processes in arid environments. Micrometeorological data include precipitation, air temperature, solar radiation, net radiation, relative humidity, ambient vapor pressure, wind speed and direction, barometric pressure, soil temperature, and soil-heat flux. All micrometeorological data were collected using a 10-second sampling interval by data loggers that output daily mean, maximum, and minimum values, and hourly mean values. For precipitation, data output consisted of daily, hourly, and 5-minute totals. Soil-moisture data included periodic measurements of soil-water content at nine neutron-probe access tubes with measurable depths ranging from 5.25 to 29.75 meters. The computer data files included in this report contain the complete micrometeorological and soil-moisture data sets. The computer data consists of seven files with about 14 megabytes of information. The seven files are in tabular format: (1) one file lists daily mean, maximum, and minimum micrometeorological data and daily total precipitation; (2) three files list hourly mean micrometeorological data and hourly precipitation for each year (1998-2000); (3) one file lists 5-minute precipitation data; (4) one file lists mean soil-water content by date and depth at four experimental sites; and (5) one file lists soil-water content by date and depth for each neutron-probe access tube. This report highlights selected data contained in the computer data files using figures, tables, and brief discussions. Instrumentation used for data collection also is described. Water-content profiles are shown to demonstrate variability of water content with depth. Time-series data are plotted to illustrate temporal variations in micrometeorological and soil-water content data. Substantial precipitation at the end of an El Ni?o cycle in early 1998 resulted in measurable water penetration to a depth of 1.25 meters at one of the four experimental soil-monitoring sites.

Daily air temperature interpolated at high spatial resolution over a large mountainous region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dodson, R.; Marks, D.

1997-01-01

Two methods are investigated for interpolating daily minimum and maximum air temperatures (Tmin and Tmax) at a 1 km spatial resolution over a large mountainous region (830 000 km2) in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. The methods were selected because of their ability to (1) account for the effect of elevation on temperature and (2) efficiently handle large volumes of data. The first method, the neutral stability algorithm (NSA), used the hydrostatic and potential temperature equations to convert measured temperatures and elevations to sea-level potential temperatures. The potential temperatures were spatially interpolated using an inverse-squared-distance algorithm and then mapped to the elevation surface of a digital elevation model (DEM). The second method, linear lapse rate adjustment (LLRA), involved the same basic procedure as the NSA, but used a constant linear lapse rate instead of the potential temperature equation. Cross-validation analyses were performed using the NSA and LLRA methods to interpolate Tmin and Tmax each day for the 1990 water year, and the methods were evaluated based on mean annual interpolation error (IE). The NSA method showed considerable bias for sites associated with vertical extrapolation. A correction based on climate station/grid cell elevation differences was developed and found to successfully remove the bias. The LLRA method was tested using 3 lapse rates, none of which produced a serious extrapolation bias. The bias-adjusted NSA and the 3 LLRA methods produced almost identical levels of accuracy (mean absolute errors between 1.2 and 1.3??C), and produced very similar temperature surfaces based on image difference statistics. In terms of accuracy, speed, and ease of implementation, LLRA was chosen as the best of the methods tested.

Association between dengue fever incidence and meteorological factors in Guangzhou, China, 2005-2014.

PubMed

Xiang, Jianjun; Hansen, Alana; Liu, Qiyong; Liu, Xiaobo; Tong, Michael Xiaoliang; Sun, Yehuan; Cameron, Scott; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Han, Gil-Soo; Williams, Craig; Weinstein, Philip; Bi, Peng

2017-02-01

This study aims to (1) investigate the associations between climatic factors and dengue; and (2) identify the susceptible subgroups. De-identified daily dengue cases in Guangzhou for 2005-2014 were obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Weather data were downloaded from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System. Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) were used to graphically demonstrate the three-dimensional temperature-dengue association. Generalised estimating equation models (GEE) with piecewise linear spline functions were used to quantify the temperature-dengue associations. Threshold values were estimated using a broken-stick model. Middle-aged and older people, people undertaking household duties, retirees, and those unemployed were at high risk of dengue. Reversed U-shaped non-linear associations were found between ambient temperature, relative humidity, extreme wind velocity, and dengue. The optimal maximum temperature (T max ) range for dengue transmission in Guangzhou was 21.6-32.9°C, and 11.2-23.7°C for minimum temperature (T min ). A 1°C increase of T max and T min within these ranges was associated with 11.9% and 9.9% increase in dengue at lag0, respectively. Although lag effects of temperature were observed for up to 141 days for T max and 150 days for T min , the maximum lag effects were observed at 32 days and 39 days respectively. Average relative humidity was negatively associated with dengue when it exceeded 78.9%. Maximum wind velocity (>10.7m/s) inhibited dengue transmission. Climatic factors had significant impacts on dengue in Guangzhou. Lag effects of temperature on dengue lasted the local whole epidemic season. To reduce the likely increasing dengue burden, more efforts are needed to strengthen the capacity building of public health systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Warming and wetting signals emerging from analysis of changes in climate extreme indices over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skansi, María de los Milagros; Brunet, Manola; Sigró, Javier; Aguilar, Enric; Arevalo Groening, Juan Andrés; Bentancur, Oscar J.; Castellón Geier, Yaruska Rosa; Correa Amaya, Ruth Leonor; Jácome, Homero; Malheiros Ramos, Andrea; Oria Rojas, Clara; Pasten, Alejandro Max; Sallons Mitro, Sukarni; Villaroel Jiménez, Claudia; Martínez, Rodney; Alexander, Lisa V.; Jones, P. D.

2013-01-01

Here we show and discuss the results of an assessment of changes in both area-averaged and station-based climate extreme indices over South America (SA) for the 1950-2010 and 1969-2009 periods using high-quality daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation series. A weeklong regional workshop in Guayaquil (Ecuador) provided the opportunity to extend the current picture of changes in climate extreme indices over SA. Our results provide evidence of warming and wetting across the whole SA since the mid-20th century onwards. Nighttime (minimum) temperature indices show the largest rates of warming (e.g. for tropical nights, cold and warm nights), while daytime (maximum) temperature indices also point to warming (e.g. for cold days, summer days, the annual lowest daytime temperature), but at lower rates than for minimums. Both tails of night-time temperatures have warmed by a similar magnitude, with cold days (the annual lowest nighttime and daytime temperatures) seeing reductions (increases). Trends are strong and moderate (moderate to weak) for regional-averaged (local) indices, most of them pointing to a less cold SA during the day and warmer night-time temperatures. Regionally-averaged precipitation indices show clear wetting and a signature of intensified heavy rain events over the eastern part of the continent. The annual amounts of rainfall are rising strongly over south-east SA (26.41 mm/decade) and Amazonia (16.09 mm/decade), but north-east Brazil and the western part of SA have experienced non-significant decreases. Very wet and extremely days, the annual maximum 5-day and 1-day precipitation show the largest upward trends, indicating an intensified rainfall signal for SA, particularly over Amazonia and south-east SA. Local trends for precipitation extreme indices are in general less coherent spatially, but with more general spatially coherent upward trends in extremely wet days over all SA.

Soil temperature investigations using satellite acquired thermal-infrared data in semi-arid regions. Thesis. Final Report; [Utah

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Day, R. L.; Petersen, G. W.

1983-01-01

Thermal-infrared data from the Heat Capacity Mapping Mission satellite were used to map the spatial distribution of diurnal surface temperatures and to estimate mean annual soil temperatures (MAST) and annual surface temperature amplitudes (AMP) in semi-arid east central Utah. Diurnal data with minimal snow and cloud cover were selected for five dates throughout a yearly period and geometrically co-registered. Rubber-sheet stretching was aided by the WARP program which allowed preview of image transformations. Daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperatures were averaged to generation average daily temperature (ADT) data set for each of the five dates. Five ADT values for each pixel were used to fit a sine curve describing the theoretical annual surface temperature response as defined by a solution of a one-dimensinal heat flow equation. Linearization of the equation produced estimates of MAST and AMP plus associated confidence statistics. MAST values were grouped into classes and displayed on a color video screen. Diurnal surface temperatures and MAST were primarily correlated with elevation.

Statistical downscaling of mean temperature, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature on the Loess Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, L.

2017-12-01

Climate change is considered to be one of the greatest environmental threats. Global climate models (GCMs) are the primary tool used for studying climate change. However, GCMs are limited because of their coarse spatial resolution and inability to resolve important sub-grid scale features such as terrain and clouds. Statistical downscaling methods can be used to downscale large-scale variables to local-scale. In this study, we assess the applicability of the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in downscaling the outputs from Beijing Normal University Earth System Model (BNU-ESM). The study focus on the the Loess Plateau, China, and the variables for downscaling include daily mean temperature (TMEAN), maximum temperature (TMAX) and minimum temperature (TMIN). The results show that SDSM performs well for these three climatic variables on the Loess Plateau. After downscaling, the root mean square errors for TMEAN, TMAX, TMIN for BNU-ESM were reduced by 70.9%, 75.1%, and 67.2%, respectively. All the rates of change in TMEAN, TMAX and TMIN during the 21st century decreased after SDSM downscaling. We also show that SDSM can effectively reduce uncertainty, compared with the raw model outputs. TMEAN uncertainty was reduced by 27.1%, 26.8%, and 16.3% for the future scenarios of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The corresponding reductions in uncertainty were 23.6%, 30.7%, and 18.7% for TMAX; 37.6%, 31.8%, and 23.2% for TMIN.

Tympanic temperature in confined beef cattle exposed to excessive heat load

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mader, T. L.; Gaughan, J. B.; Johnson, L. J.; Hahn, G. L.

2010-11-01

Angus crossbred yearling steers ( n = 168) were used to evaluate effects on performance and tympanic temperature (TT) of feeding additional potassium and sodium to steers exposed to excessive heat load (maximum daily ambient temperature exceeded 32°C for three consecutive days) during seasonal summer conditions. Steers were assigned one of four treatments: (1) control; (2) potassium supplemented (diet containing 2.10% KHCO3); (3) sodium supplemented (diet containing 1.10% NaCl); or (4) potassium and sodium supplemented (diet containing 2.10% KHCO3 and 1.10% NaCl). Overall, additional KHCO3 at the 2% level or NaCl at the 1% level did not improve performance or heat stress tolerance with these diet formulations. However, the addition of KHCO3 did enhance water intake. Independent of treatment effects, TT of cattle displaying high, moderate, or low levels of stress suggest that cattle that do not adequately cool down at night are prone to achieving greater body temperatures during a subsequent hot day. Cattle that are prone to get hot but can cool at night can keep average tympanic temperatures at or near those of cattle that tend to consistently maintain lower peak and mean body temperatures. In addition, during cooler and moderately hot periods, cattle change TT in a stair-step or incremental pattern, while under hot conditions, average TT of group-fed cattle moves in conjunction with ambient conditions, indicating that thermoregulatory mechanisms are at or near maximum physiological capacity.

Gross mismatch between thermal tolerances and environmental temperatures in a tropical freshwater snail: climate warming and evolutionary implications.

PubMed

Polgar, Gianluca; Khang, Tsung Fei; Chua, Teddy; Marshall, David J

2015-01-01

The relationship between acute thermal tolerance and habitat temperature in ectotherm animals informs about their thermal adaptation and is used to assess thermal safety margins and sensitivity to climate warming. We studied this relationship in an equatorial freshwater snail (Clea nigricans), belonging to a predominantly marine gastropod lineage (Neogastropoda, Buccinidae). We found that tolerance of heating and cooling exceeded average daily maximum and minimum temperatures, by roughly 20°C in each case. Because habitat temperature is generally assumed to be the main selective factor acting on the fundamental thermal niche, the discordance between thermal tolerance and environmental temperature implies trait conservation following 'in situ' environmental change, or following novel colonisation of a thermally less-variable habitat. Whereas heat tolerance could relate to an historical association with the thermally variable and extreme marine intertidal fringe zone, cold tolerance could associate with either an ancestral life at higher latitudes, or represent adaptation to cooler, higher-altitudinal, tropical lotic systems. The broad upper thermal safety margin (difference between heat tolerance and maximum environmental temperature) observed in this snail is grossly incompatible with the very narrow safety margins typically found in most terrestrial tropical ectotherms (insects and lizards), and hence with the emerging prediction that tropical ectotherms, are especially vulnerable to environmental warming. A more comprehensive understanding of climatic vulnerability of animal ectotherms thus requires greater consideration of taxonomic diversity, ecological transition and evolutionary history. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ozone and its projection in regard to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melkonyan, Ani; Wagner, Patrick

2013-03-01

In this paper, the dependence of ozone-forming potential on temperature was analysed based on data from two stations (with an industrial and rural background, respectively) in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, for the period of 1983-2007. After examining the interrelations between ozone, NOx and temperature, a projection of the days with ozone exceedance (over a limit value of a daily maximum 8-h average ≥ 120 μg m-3 for 25 days per year averaged for 3 years) in terms of global climate change was made using probability theory and an autoregression integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The results show that with a temperature increase of 3 K, the frequency of days when ozone exceeds its limit value will increase by 135% at the industrial station and by 87% at the rural background station.

Metabolism, food consumption and growth of plaice ( Pleuronectes platessa) and flounder ( Platichthys flesus) in relation to fish size and temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fonds, M.; Cronie, R.; Vethaak, A. D.; Van Der Puyl, P.

Daily rates of oxygen consumption, food consumption and growth of plaice ( Pleuronectes platessa) and flounder ( Platichthys flesus) have been measured in the laboratory at various constant temperatures. Oxygen consumption was related to body weight of the fish as a power function, with a weight exponent of between 0.71 and 0.85. No significant effects of temperature or feeding on this exponent were found. Flounder showed a significantly higher metabolic rate and a higher temperature coefficient for metabolism than plaice. Maximum daily rates of food consumption and the weight increment of fish fed with excess rations of fresh mussel meat could also be related to fish weights by means of power functions. For plaice these exponents decreased from about 0.9 at low temperatures (2-6 C°) to about 0.7 at high temperatures (18-22°C). Such a temperature effect on the weight exponent indicates that small juvenile fish eat more and grow faster at higher temperatures than do large older fish, and that large fish do better at low temperatures. After scaling of daily food consumption and growth in proportion to metabolic weights of the fish (W 0.78), feeding and growth at different fish sizes and temperatures can be compared and temperature-growth rate models can be used for investigations of feeding in natural populations. Compared to plaice, young flounder ate more and grew faster at higher temperatures (> 14°C). This may partly explain the preference of flounder for the shallower parts of coastal areas and estuaries, where summer temperatures and food densities are higher. Energy budgets of young plaice and flounder fed with excess rations of mussel meat indicate that at least 29% of the food energy is used for metabolism while about 37% of the food energy is converted into growth. The net conversion efficiency was estimated at 0.45 for food and growth in units of ash-free dry weight, and at 0.53 for food and growth in energy units. Analysis of the energy budget showed that the assimilated physiologically useful food energy is divided almost equally over metabolism (42-47%) and growth (53-55%). It is suggested that flatfish spend relatively less energy in swimming and therefore convert more food energy into growth than (pelagic) roundfish.

Establishing Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) Wasteload Allocations (WLAs) for Storm Water Sources and NPDES Permit Requirements Based on Those WLAs

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The memoranda clarify existing EPA regulatory requirements for, and provide guidance on, establishing wasteload allocations (WLAs) for storm water discharges in total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) approved or established by EPA.

SELECTION OF CANDIDATE EUTROPHICATION MODELS FOR TOTAL MAXIMUM DAILY LOADS ANALYSES

EPA Science Inventory

A tiered approach was developed to evaluate candidate eutrophication models to select a common suite of models that could be used for Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDL) analyses in estuaries, rivers, and lakes/reservoirs. Consideration for linkage to watershed models and ecologica...

Plot- and landscape-level changes in climate and vegetation following defoliation of exotic saltcedar (Tamarix sp.) from the biocontrol agent Diorhabda carinulata along a stream in the Mojave Desert (USA)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bateman, H.L.; Nagler, P.L.; Glenn, E.P.

2013-01-01

The biocontrol agent, northern tamarisk beetle (Diorhabda carinulata), has been used to defoliate non-native saltcedar (Tamarix spp.) in USA western riparian systems since 2001. Biocontrol has the potential to impact biotic communities and climatic conditions in affected riparian areas. To determine the relationships between biocontrol establishment and effects on vegetation and climate at the plot and landscape scales, we measured temperature, relative humidity, foliage canopy, solar radiation, and used satellite imagery to assess saltcedar defoliation and evapotranspiration (ET) along the Virgin River in the Mojave Desert. Following defoliation solar radiation increased, daily humidity decreased, and maximum daily temperatures tended to increase. MODIS and Landsat satellite imagery showed defoliation was widespread, resulting in reductions in ET and vegetation indices. Because biocontrol beetles are spreading into new saltcedar habitats on arid western rivers, and the eventual equilibrium between beetles and saltcedar is unknown, it is necessary to monitor trends for ecosystem functions and higher trophic-level responses in habitats impacted by biocontrol.

Fundamental statistical relationships between monthly and daily meteorological variables: Temporal downscaling of weather based on a global observational dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sommer, Philipp; Kaplan, Jed

2016-04-01

Accurate modelling of large-scale vegetation dynamics, hydrology, and other environmental processes requires meteorological forcing on daily timescales. While meteorological data with high temporal resolution is becoming increasingly available, simulations for the future or distant past are limited by lack of data and poor performance of climate models, e.g., in simulating daily precipitation. To overcome these limitations, we may temporally downscale monthly summary data to a daily time step using a weather generator. Parameterization of such statistical models has traditionally been based on a limited number of observations. Recent developments in the archiving, distribution, and analysis of "big data" datasets provide new opportunities for the parameterization of a temporal downscaling model that is applicable over a wide range of climates. Here we parameterize a WGEN-type weather generator using more than 50 million individual daily meteorological observations, from over 10'000 stations covering all continents, based on the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) and Synoptic Cloud Reports (EECRA) databases. Using the resulting "universal" parameterization and driven by monthly summaries, we downscale mean temperature (minimum and maximum), cloud cover, and total precipitation, to daily estimates. We apply a hybrid gamma-generalized Pareto distribution to calculate daily precipitation amounts, which overcomes much of the inability of earlier weather generators to simulate high amounts of daily precipitation. Our globally parameterized weather generator has numerous applications, including vegetation and crop modelling for paleoenvironmental studies.

An extended linear scaling method for downscaling temperature and its implication in the Jhelum River basin, Pakistan, and India, using CMIP5 GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmood, Rashid; JIA, Shaofeng

2017-11-01

In this study, the linear scaling method used for the downscaling of temperature was extended from monthly scaling factors to daily scaling factors (SFs) to improve the daily variations in the corrected temperature. In the original linear scaling (OLS), mean monthly SFs are used to correct the future data, but mean daily SFs are used to correct the future data in the extended linear scaling (ELS) method. The proposed method was evaluated in the Jhelum River basin for the period 1986-2000, using the observed maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) of 18 climate stations and the simulated Tmax and Tmin of five global climate models (GCMs) (GFDL-ESM2G, NorESM1-ME, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and CanESM2), and the method was also compared with OLS to observe the improvement. Before the evaluation of ELS, these GCMs were also evaluated using their raw data against the observed data for the same period (1986-2000). Four statistical indicators, i.e., error in mean, error in standard deviation, root mean square error, and correlation coefficient, were used for the evaluation process. The evaluation results with GCMs' raw data showed that GFDL-ESM2G and MIROC5 performed better than other GCMs according to all the indicators but with unsatisfactory results that confine their direct application in the basin. Nevertheless, after the correction with ELS, a noticeable improvement was observed in all the indicators except correlation coefficient because this method only adjusts (corrects) the magnitude. It was also noticed that the daily variations of the observed data were better captured by the corrected data with ELS than OLS. Finally, the ELS method was applied for the downscaling of five GCMs' Tmax and Tmin for the period of 2041-2070 under RCP8.5 in the Jhelum basin. The results showed that the basin would face hotter climate in the future relative to the present climate, which may result in increasing water requirements in public, industrial, and agriculture sectors; change in the hydrological cycle and monsoon pattern; and lack of glaciers in the basin.

Raised temperatures over the Kericho tea estates: revisiting the climate in the East African highlands malaria debate

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Whether or not observed increases in malaria incidence in the Kenyan Highlands during the last thirty years are associated with co-varying changes in local temperature, possibly connected to global changes in climate, has been debated for over a decade. Studies, using differing data sets and methodologies, produced conflicting results regarding the occurrence of temperature trends and their likelihood of being responsible, at least in part, for the increases in malaria incidence in the highlands of western Kenya. A time series of quality controlled daily temperature and rainfall data from Kericho, in the Kenyan Highlands, may help resolve the controversy. If significant temperature trends over the last three decades have occurred then climate should be included (along with other factors such as land use change and drug resistance) as a potential driver of the observed increases in malaria in the region. Methods Over 30 years (1 January 1979 to 31 December 2009) of quality controlled daily observations ( > 97% complete) of maximum, minimum and mean temperature were used in the analysis of trends at Kericho meteorological station, sited in a tea growing area of Kenya's western highlands. Inhomogeneities in all the time series were identified and corrected. Linear trends were identified via a least-squares regression analysis with statistical significance assessed using a two-tailed t-test. These 'gold standard' meteorological observations were compared with spatially interpolated temperature datasets that have been developed for regional or global applications. The relationship of local climate processes with larger climate variations, including tropical sea surface temperatures (SST), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was also assessed. Results An upward trend of ≈0.2°C/decade was observed in all three temperature variables (P < 0.01). Mean temperature variations in Kericho were associated with large-scale climate variations including tropical SST (r = 0.50; p < 0.01). Local rainfall was found to have inverse effects on minimum and maximum temperature. Three versions of a spatially interpolated temperature data set showed markedly different trends when compared with each other and with the Kericho station observations. Conclusion This study presents evidence of a warming trend in observed maximum, minimum and mean temperatures at Kericho during the period 1979 to 2009 using gold standard meteorological observations. Although local factors may be contributing to these trends, the findings are consistent with variability and trends that have occurred in correlated global climate processes. Climate should therefore not be dismissed as a potential driver of observed increases in malaria seen in the region during recent decades, however its relative importance compared to other factors needs further elaboration. Climate services, pertinent to the achievement of development targets such as the Millennium Development Goals and the analysis of infectious disease in the context of climate variability and change are being developed and should increase the availability of relevant quality controlled climate data for improving development decisions. The malaria community should seize this opportunity to make their needs heard. PMID:21241505

Aerobic scope does not predict the performance of a tropical eurythermal fish at elevated temperatures.

PubMed

Norin, Tommy; Malte, Hans; Clark, Timothy D

2014-01-15

Climate warming is predicted to negatively impact fish populations through impairment of oxygen transport systems when temperatures exceed those which are optimal for aerobic scope (AS). This concept of oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT) is rapidly gaining popularity within climate change research and has been applied to several fish species. Here, we evaluated the relevance of aerobic performance of juvenile barramundi (Lates calcarifer) in the context of thermal preference and tolerance by (1) measuring standard and maximum metabolic rates (SMR and MMR, respectively) and AS of fish acclimated to 29°C and acutely exposed to temperatures from 23 to 38°C, (2) allowing the fish to behaviourally select a preferred temperature between 29 and 38°C, and (3) quantifying alterations to AS after 5 weeks of acclimation to 29 and 38°C. SMR and MMR both increased continuously with temperature in acutely exposed fish, but the increase was greater for MMR such that AS was highest at 38°C, a temperature approaching the upper lethal limit (40-41°C). Despite 38°C eliciting maximum AS, when given the opportunity the fish selected a median temperature of 31.7 ± 0.5°C and spent only 10 ± 3% of their time at temperatures >36°C. Following acclimation to 38°C, AS measured at 38°C was decreased to the same level as 29°C-acclimated fish measured at 29°C, suggesting that AS may be dynamically modulated independent of temperature to accommodate the requirements of daily life. Together, these results reveal limited power of the OCLTT hypothesis in predicting optimal temperatures and effects of climate warming on juvenile barramundi.

Variability of temperature properties over Kenya based on observed and reanalyzed datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ongoma, Victor; Chen, Haishan; Gao, Chujie; Sagero, Phillip Obaigwa

2017-08-01

Updated information on trends of climate extremes is central in the assessment of climate change impacts. This work examines the trends in mean, diurnal temperature range (DTR), maximum and minimum temperatures, 1951-2012 and the recent (1981-2010) extreme temperature events over Kenya. The study utilized daily observed and reanalyzed monthly mean, minimum, and maximum temperature datasets. The analysis was carried out based on a set of nine indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The trend of the mean and the extreme temperature was determined using Mann-Kendall rank test, linear regression analysis, and Sen's slope estimator. December-February (DJF) season records high temperature while June-August (JJA) experiences the least temperature. The observed rate of warming is + 0.15 °C/decade. However, DTR does not show notable annual trend. Both seasons show an overall warming trend since the early 1970s with abrupt and significant changes happening around the early 1990s. The warming is more significant in the highland regions as compared to their lowland counterparts. There is increase variance in temperature. The percentage of warm days and warm nights is observed to increase, a further affirmation of warming. This work is a synoptic scale study that exemplifies how seasonal and decadal analyses, together with the annual assessments, are important in the understanding of the temperature variability which is vital in vulnerability and adaptation studies at a local/regional scale. However, following the quality of observed data used herein, there remains need for further studies on the subject using longer and more data to avoid generalizations made in this study.

Modelling temporal and large-scale spatial variability of soil respiration from soil water availability, temperature and vegetation productivity indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reichstein, M.; Rey, A.; Freibauer, A.; Tenhunen, J.; Valentini, R.; Soil Respiration Synthesis Team

2003-04-01

Field-chamber measurements of soil respiration from 17 different forest and shrubland sites in Europe and North America were summarized and analyzed with the goal to develop a model describing seasonal, inter-annual and spatial variability of soil respiration as affected by water availability, temperature and site properties. The analysis was performed at a daily and at a monthly time step. With the daily time step, the relative soil water content in the upper soil layer expressed as a fraction of field capacity was a good predictor of soil respiration at all sites. Among the site variables tested, those related to site productivity (e.g. leaf area index) correlated significantly with soil respiration, while carbon pool variables like standing biomass or the litter and soil carbon stocks did not show a clear relationship with soil respiration. Furthermore, it was evidenced that the effect of precipitation on soil respiration stretched beyond its direct effect via soil moisture. A general statistical non-linear regression model was developed to describe soil respiration as dependent on soil temperature, soil water content and site-specific maximum leaf area index. The model explained nearly two thirds of the temporal and inter-site variability of soil respiration with a mean absolute error of 0.82 µmol m-2 s-1. The parameterised model exhibits the following principal properties: 1) At a relative amount of upper-layer soil water of 16% of field capacity half-maximal soil respiration rates are reached. 2) The apparent temperature sensitivity of soil respiration measured as Q10 varies between 1 and 5 depending on soil temperature and water content. 3) Soil respiration under reference moisture and temperature conditions is linearly related to maximum site leaf area index. At a monthly time-scale we employed the approach by Raich et al. (2002, Global Change Biol. 8, 800-812) that used monthly precipitation and air temperature to globally predict soil respiration (T&P-model). While this model was able to explain some of the month-to-month variability of soil respiration, it failed to capture the inter-site variability, regardless whether the original or a new optimized model parameterization was used. In both cases, the residuals were strongly related to maximum site leaf area index. Thus, for a monthly time scale we developed a simple T&P&LAI-model that includes leaf area index as an additional predictor of soil respiration. This extended but still simple model performed nearly as well as the more detailed time-step model and explained 50 % of the overall and 65% of the site-to-site variability. Consequently, better estimates of globally distributed soil respiration should be obtained with the new model driven by satellite estimates of leaf area index.

Performance of a New Model for Predicting End of Flowering Date (bbch 69) of Grapevine (Vitis Vinifera L.)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gentilucci, Matteo

2017-04-01

The end of flowering date (BBCH 69) is an important phenological stage for grapevine (Vitis Vinifera L.), in fact up to this date the growth is focused on the plant and gradually passes on the berries through fruit set. The aim of this study is to perform a model to predict the date of the end of flowering (BBCH69) for some grapevine varieties. This research carried out using three cultivars of grapevine (Maceratino, Montepulciano, Sangiovese) in three different locations (Macerata, Morrovalle and Potenza Picena), places of an equal number of wine farms for the time interval between 2006 and 2013. In order to have reliable temperatures for each location, the data of 6 weather stations near these farms have been interpolated using cokriging methods with elevation as independent variable. The procedure to predict the end of flowering date starts with an investigation of cardinal temperatures typical of each grapevine cultivar. In fact the analysis is characterized by four temperature thresholds (cardinals): minimum activity temperature (TCmin = below this temperature there is no growth for the plant), lower optimal temperature (TLopt = above this temperature there is maximum growth), upper optimal temperature (TUopt = below this temperature there is maximum growth) and maximum activity temperature (TC max = above this temperature there is no growth). Thus this model take into consideration maximum, mean and minimum daily temperatures of each location, relating them with the four above mentioned cultivar temperature thresholds. In this way it has been obtained some possible cases (32) corresponding to as many equations, depending on the position of temperatures compared with the thresholds, in order to calculate the amount of growing degree units (GDU) for each day. Several iterative tests (about 1000 for each cultivar) have been performed, changing the values of temperature thresholds and GDU in order to find the best possible combination which minimizes error between observed and predicted days from budburst to end of flowering. It has been assessed the minimization of error for the predicted dates compared with real ones, calculating some statistical indexes as root mean square error, mean absolute error and coefficient of variation. The procedure led to the identification of four cardinal temperatures and the amount of GDU for each cultivar between BBCH01 (budburst) and BBCH69 (end of flowering). In conclusion, this research has achieved some goals such as the plant response to temperature (same cardinal temperatures for Maceratino and Sangiovese but higher ones for Montepulciano), the interval ranging of growing degree units (from 35 to 38) and the differences between observed and predicted days (ranged from 2 to 3.5), for each grape varieties.

Long-term projections and acclimatization scenarios of temperature-related mortality in Europe.

PubMed

Ballester, Joan; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François Richard; Rodó, Xavier

2011-06-21

The steady increase in greenhouse gas concentrations is inducing a detectable rise in global temperatures. The sensitivity of human societies to warming temperatures is, however, a transcendental question not comprehensively addressed to date. Here we show the link between temperature, humidity and daily numbers of deaths in nearly 200 European regions, which are subsequently used to infer transient projections of mortality under state-of-the-art high-resolution greenhouse gas scenario simulations. Our analyses point to a change in the seasonality of mortality, with maximum monthly incidence progressively shifting from winter to summer. The results also show that the rise in heat-related mortality will start to completely compensate the reduction of deaths from cold during the second half of the century, amounting to an average drop in human lifespan of up 3-4 months in 2070-2100. Nevertheless, projections suggest that human lifespan might indeed increase if a substantial degree of adaptation to warm temperatures takes place.

Concentration–Response Function for Ozone and Daily Mortality: Results from Five Urban and Five Rural U.K. Populations

PubMed Central

Yu, Dahai; Armstrong, Ben G.; Pattenden, Sam; Wilkinson, Paul; Doherty, Ruth M.; Heal, Mathew R.; Anderson, H. Ross

2012-01-01

Background: Short-term exposure to ozone has been associated with increased daily mortality. The shape of the concentration–response relationship—and, in particular, if there is a threshold—is critical for estimating public health impacts. Objective: We investigated the concentration–response relationship between daily ozone and mortality in five urban and five rural areas in the United Kingdom from 1993 to 2006. Methods: We used Poisson regression, controlling for seasonality, temperature, and influenza, to investigate associations between daily maximum 8-hr ozone and daily all-cause mortality, assuming linear, linear-threshold, and spline models for all-year and season-specific periods. We examined sensitivity to adjustment for particles (urban areas only) and alternative temperature metrics. Results: In all-year analyses, we found clear evidence for a threshold in the concentration–response relationship between ozone and all-cause mortality in London at 65 µg/m3 [95% confidence interval (CI): 58, 83] but little evidence of a threshold in other urban or rural areas. Combined linear effect estimates for all-cause mortality were comparable for urban and rural areas: 0.48% (95% CI: 0.35, 0.60) and 0.58% (95% CI: 0.36, 0.81) per 10-µg/m3 increase in ozone concentrations, respectively. Seasonal analyses suggested thresholds in both urban and rural areas for effects of ozone during summer months. Conclusions: Our results suggest that health impacts should be estimated across the whole ambient range of ozone using both threshold and nonthreshold models, and models stratified by season. Evidence of a threshold effect in London but not in other study areas requires further investigation. The public health impacts of exposure to ozone in rural areas should not be overlooked. PMID:22814173

Gastric evacuation rate, index of fullness, and daily ration of Lake Michigan slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus) and deepwater sculpin (Myoxocephalus thompsonii)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mychek-Londer, Justin G.; Bunnell, David B.

2013-01-01

Accurate estimates of fish consumption are required to understand trophic interactions and facilitate ecosystem-based fishery management. Despite their importance within the food-web, no method currently exists to estimate daily consumption for Great Lakes slimy (Cottus cognatus) and deepwater sculpin (Myoxocephalus thompsonii). We conducted experiments to estimate gastric evacuation (GEVAC) and collected field data from Lake Michigan to estimate index of fullness [(g prey/g fish weight)100%) to determine daily ration for water temperatures ranging 2–5 °C, coinciding with the winter and early spring season. Exponential GEVAC rates equaled 0.0115/h for slimy sculpin and 0.0147/h for deepwater sculpin, and did not vary between 2.7 °C and 5.1 °C for either species or between prey types (Mysis relicta and fish eggs) for slimy sculpin. Index of fullness varied with fish size, and averaged 1.93% and 1.85% for slimy and deepwater sculpins, respectively. Maximum index of fullness was generally higher (except for the smallest sizes) for both species in 2009–2010 than in 1976 despite reductions in a primary prey, Diporeia spp. Predictive daily ration equations were derived as a function of fish dry weight. Estimates of daily consumption ranged from 0.2 to 0.8% of their body weight, which was within the low range of estimates from other species at comparably low water temperatures. These results provide a tool to estimate the consumptive demand of sculpins which will improve our understanding of benthic offshore food webs and aid in management and restoration of these native species in the Great Lakes.

Statistical downscaling and future scenario generation of temperatures for Pakistan Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Li, Jianping; Rasul, Ghulam; Tong, Jiang; Ali, Gohar; Cheema, Sohail Babar; Liu, Luliu; Gemmer, Marco; Fischer, Thomas

2015-04-01

Finer climate change information on spatial scale is required for impact studies than that presently provided by global or regional climate models. It is especially true for regions like South Asia with complex topography, coastal or island locations, and the areas of highly heterogeneous land-cover. To deal with the situation, an inexpensive method (statistical downscaling) has been adopted. Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) employed for downscaling of daily minimum and maximum temperature data of 44 national stations for base time (1961-1990) and then the future scenarios generated up to 2099. Observed as well as Predictors (product of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) data were calibrated and tested on individual/multiple basis through linear regression. Future scenario was generated based on HadCM3 daily data for A2 and B2 story lines. The downscaled data has been tested, and it has shown a relatively strong relationship with the observed in comparison to ECHAM5 data. Generally, the southern half of the country is considered vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures, but the results of this study projects that in future, the northern belt in particular would have a possible threat of increasing tendency in air temperature. Especially, the northern areas (hosting the third largest ice reserves after the Polar Regions), an important feeding source for Indus River, are projected to be vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures. Consequently, not only the hydro-agricultural sector but also the environmental conditions in the area may be at risk, in future.

High Ambient Temperatures and Risk of Motor Vehicle Crashes in Catalonia, Spain (2000–2011): A Time-Series Analysis

PubMed Central

Escalera-Antezana, Juan Pablo; Dadvand, Payam; Llatje, Òscar; Barrera-Gómez, Jose; Cunillera, Jordi; Medina-Ramón, Mercedes; Pérez, Katherine

2015-01-01

Background Experimental studies have shown a decrease in driving performance at high temperatures. The epidemiological evidence for the relationship between heat and motor vehicle crashes is not consistent. Objectives We estimated the impact of high ambient temperatures on the daily number of motor vehicle crashes and, in particular, on crashes involving driver performance factors (namely distractions, driver error, fatigue, or sleepiness). Methods We performed a time-series analysis linking daily counts of motor vehicle crashes and daily temperature or occurrence of heat waves while controlling for temporal trends. All motor vehicle crashes with victims that occurred during the warm period of the years 2000–2011 in Catalonia (Spain) were included. Temperature data were obtained from 66 weather stations covering the region. Poisson regression models adjusted for precipitation, day of the week, month, year, and holiday periods were fitted to quantify the associations. Results The study included 118,489 motor vehicle crashes (an average of 64.1 per day). The estimated risk of crashes significantly increased by 2.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.7%, 5.1%] during heat wave days, and this association was stronger (7.7%, 95% CI: 1.2%, 14.6%) when restricted to crashes with driver performance–associated factors. The estimated risk of crashes with driver performance factors significantly increased by 1.1% (95% CI: 0.1%, 2.1%) for each 1°C increase in maximum temperature. Conclusions Motor vehicle crashes involving driver performance–associated factors were increased in association with heat waves and increasing temperature. These findings are relevant for designing preventive plans in a context of global warming. Citation Basagaña X, Escalera-Antezana JP, Dadvand P, Llatje Ò, Barrera-Gómez J, Cunillera J, Medina-Ramón M, Pérez K. 2015. High ambient temperatures and risk of motor vehicle crashes in Catalonia, Spain (2000–2011): a time-series analysis. Environ Health Perspect 123:1309–1316; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409223 PMID:26046727

Prediction of summer maximum and minimum temperature over the central and western United States: the roles of soil moisture and sea surface temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alfaro, Eric J.; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.

2006-01-01

A statistical model based on canonical correlation analysis (CCA) was used to explore climatic associations and predictability of June–August (JJA) maximum and minimum surface air temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) as well as the frequency of Tmax daily extremes (Tmax90) in the central and western United States (west of 90°W). Explanatory variables are monthly and seasonal Pacific Ocean SST (PSST) and the Climate Division Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) during 1950–2001. Although there is a positive correlation between Tmax and Tmin, the two variables exhibit somewhat different patterns and dynamics. Both exhibit their lowest levels of variability in summer, but that of Tmax is greater than Tmin. The predictability of Tmax is mainly associated with local effects related to previous soil moisture conditions at short range (one month to one season), with PSST providing a secondary influence. Predictability of Tmin is more strongly influenced by large-scale (PSST) patterns, with PDSI acting as a short-range predictive influence. For both predictand variables (Tmax and Tmin), the PDSI influence falls off markedly at time leads beyond a few months, but a PSST influence remains for at least two seasons. The maximum predictive skill for JJA Tmin, Tmax, and Tmax90 is from May PSST and PDSI. Importantly, skills evaluated for various seasons and time leads undergo a seasonal cycle that has maximum levels in summer. At the seasonal time frame, summer Tmax prediction skills are greatest in the Midwest, northern and central California, Arizona, and Utah. Similar results were found for Tmax90. In contrast, Tmin skill is spread over most of the western region, except for clusters of low skill in the northern Midwest and southern Montana, Idaho, and northern Arizona.

Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over China as Measured by 50-yr Return Values and Periods Based on a CMIP5 Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Ying; Gao, Xuejie; Giorgi, Filippo; Zhou, Botao; Shi, Ying; Wu, Jie; Zhang, Yongxiang

2018-04-01

Future changes in the 50-yr return level for temperature and precipitation extremes over mainland China are investigated based on a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The following indices are analyzed: TXx and TNn (the annual maximum and minimum of daily maximum and minimum surface temperature), RX5day (the annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation) and CDD (maximum annual number of consecutive dry days). After first validating the model performance, future changes in the 50-yr return values and return periods for these indices are investigated along with the inter-model spread. Multi-model median changes show an increase in the 50-yr return values of TXx and a decrease for TNn, more specifically, by the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, the present day 50-yr return period of warm events is reduced to 1.2 yr, while extreme cold events over the country are projected to essentially disappear. A general increase in RX5day 50-yr return values is found in the future. By the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, events of the present RX5day 50-yr return period are projected to reduce to < 10 yr over most of China. Changes in CDD-50 show a dipole pattern over China, with a decrease in the values and longer return periods in the north, and vice versa in the south. Our study also highlights the need for further improvements in the representation of extreme events in climate models to assess the future risks and engineering design related to large-scale infrastructure in China.

Comet 67P: Thermal Maps and Local Properties as Derived from Rosetta/VIRTIS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tosi, Federico; Capria, Maria Teresa; Capaccioni, Fabrizio; Filacchione, Gianrico; Erard, Stéphane; Leyrat, Cédric; Bockelée-Morvan, Dominique; De Sanctis, Maria Cristina; Raponi, Andrea; Ciarniello, Mauro; Schmitt, Bernard; Arnold, Gabriele; Mottola, Stefano; Fonti, Sergio; Palomba, Ernesto; Longobardo, Andrea; Cerroni, Priscilla; Piccioni, Giuseppe; Drossart, Pierre; Kuehrt, Ekkehard

2015-04-01

Comet 67P is shown to be everywhere rich in organic materials with little to no water ice visible on the surface. In the range of heliocentric distances from 3.59 to 2.74 AU, daytime observed surface temperatures retrieved from VIRTIS data are overall comprised in the range between 180 and 220 K, which is incompatible with large exposures of water ice and is consistent with a low-albedo, organics-rich surface. The accuracy of temperature retrieval is as good as a few K in regions of the comet unaffected by shadowing or limb proximity. Maximum temperature values as high as 230 K have been recorded in very few places. The highest values of surface temperature in the early Mapping phase were obtained in August 2014, during observations at small phase angles implying that the observed surface has a large predominance of small incidence angles, and local solar times (LST) centered around the maximum daily insolation. In all cases, direct correlation with topographic features is observed, i.e. largest temperature values are generally associated with the smallest values of illumination angles. So far, there is no evidence of thermal anomalies, i.e. places of the surface that are intrinsically warmer or cooler than surrounding terrains observed at the same local solar time and under similar solar illumination. For a given LST, the maximum temperature mainly depends on the solar incidence angle and on surface properties such as thermal inertia and albedo. Since VIRTIS is able to observe the same point of the surface on various occasions under different conditions of solar illumination and LST, it is possible to reconstruct the temperature of that point at different times of the comet's day, thus building diurnal profiles of temperature that are useful to constrain thermal inertia. The availability of spatially-resolved, accurate temperature observations, significantly spaced out in local solar time, provides clues to the physical structure local features, which complements the compositional investigation based on imaging spectroscopy data collected at shorter wavelengths. In the VIRTIS thermal images, a note of great interest is provided by the 'neck' of the comet close to the 'body', where, because of the concave shape, the 'head' casts prominent shadows on some areas when they experience maximum daily insolation. This is a place potentially subjected to considerable thermal stresses. We evaluate both the spatial thermal gradients and the temporal thermal gradients, providing implications for the surface structure. Acknowledgements: The authors would like to thank the following institutions and agencies, which supported this work: Italian Space Agency (ASI - Italy), Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES- France), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR-Germany), National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA-USA) Rosetta Program, Science and Technology Facilities Council (UK). VIRTIS has been built by a consortium, which includes Italy, France and Germany, under the scientific responsibility of the Istituto di Astrofisica e Planetologia Spaziali of INAF, Italy, which guides also the scientific operations. The VIRTIS instrument development has been funded and managed by ASI, with contributions from Observatoire de Meudon financed by CNES, and from DLR. The computational resources used in this research have been supplied by INAF-IAPS through the DataWell project.

Changing stream temperatures in a changing world: evaluating spatio-temporal patterns and trends across the eastern US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelleher, C.; Archfield, S. A.

2016-12-01

Stream temperatures drive biogeochemical processes and influence ecosystem health and extent, with patterns of stream temperature arising from complex interactions between climate, land cover, and in-stream diversions and dams. While each of these individual drivers may have well-understood implications for changing stream temperatures, considering the concomitant impacts of these drivers along the stream network is much more difficult. This is true especially for the eastern United States, where downstream temperature integrates many different upstream impacts. To begin to decipher the influence of these different drivers on changing stream temperatures and how these impacts may manifest through time, we examined trends for 66 sites with continuous stream temperature measurements across the eastern United States. Stream temperature records were summarized as daily mean, maximum, and mimimum values, and sites consisting of 15 or more years of data were selected for analysis. While annual stream temperatures at 53 locations were warming, a few sites on larger rivers (n = 13) have been cooling. To explore the timing of these changes as well as their implications for aquatic species, we calculated trends for seasonal extremes (average of the five warmest and coolest daily stream temperatures) during spring, summer, and fall. Interestingly, while some streams displayed strong warming trends in peak summer temperatures (n = 43), many streams also displayed cooling trends (n = 23). We also found that peak stream temperatures were warming faster in fall than in summer for many locations (n = 36). Results of this analysis show that warming (and cooling) happens at different times in different places, as a function of climate and anthropogenic impacts. Finally, we explore potential drivers of these different patterns, to determine the relative impacts of climate, land cover, and in-stream water diversions on stream temperature change. Given that the number of regulated stream miles is only increasing, improving our understanding of linkages between landscape drivers and stream temperature variation may have important outcomes for river management in a changing world.

Development of a large-sample catchment-scale hydro-meteorological, land cover and physical dataset for Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez-Garreton, C. D.; Mendoza, P. A.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Galleguillos, M. H.; Boisier, J. P.; Lara, A.; Cortés, G.; Garreaud, R.; McPhee, J. P.; Addor, N.; Puelma, C.

2017-12-01

We provide the first catchment-based hydrometeorological, vegetation and physical data set over 531 catchments in Chile (17.8 S - 55.0 S). We compiled publicly available streamflow records at daily time steps for the period 1980-2015, and generated basin-averaged time series of the following hydrometeorological variables: 1) daily precipitation coming from three different gridded sources (re-analysis and satellite-based); 2) daily maximum and minimum temperature; 3) 8-days potential evapotranspiration (PET) based on MODIS imagery and daily PET based on Hargreaves formula; and 4) daily snow water equivalent. Additionally, catchments are characterized by their main physical (area, mean elevation, mean slope) and land cover characteristics. We synthetized these datasets with several indices characterizing the spatial distribution of climatic, hydrological, topographic and vegetation attributes. The new catchment-based dataset is unprecedented in the region and provides information that can be used in a myriad of applications, including catchment classification and regionalization studies, impacts of different land cover types on catchment response, characterization of drought history and projections, climate change impacts on hydrological processes, etc. Derived practical applications include water management and allocation strategies, decision making and adaptation planning to climate change. This data set will be publicly available and we encourage the community to use it.

21 CFR 331.11 - Listing of specific active ingredients.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... contributing at least 25 percent of the total acid neutralizing capacity; maximum daily dosage limit is 8 grams...., 8 grams calcium carbonate). (e) Citrate-containing active ingredients: Citrate ion, as citric acid or salt; maximum daily dosage limit 8 grams. (f) Glycine (aminoacetic acid). (g) Magnesium-containing...

40 CFR 57.203 - Contents of the application.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... emission of sulfur dioxide; the characteristics of all gas streams emitted from the smelter's process...'s maximum daily production capacity (as defined in § 57.103(r)), the operational rate (in pounds of... smelter is operating at that capacity; and the smelter's average and maximum daily production rate for...

A panel study in congestive heart failure to estimate the short-term effects from personal factors and environmental conditions on oxygen saturation and pulse rate.

PubMed

Goldberg, M S; Giannetti, N; Burnett, R T; Mayo, N E; Valois, M-F; Brophy, J M

2008-10-01

Recent studies suggest that persons with congestive heart failure (CHF) may be at higher risk for short-term effects of air pollution. This daily diary panel study in Montreal, Quebec, was carried out to determine whether oxygen saturation and pulse rate were associated with selected personal factors, weather conditions and air pollution. Thirty-one subjects with CHF participated in this study in 2002 and 2003. Over a 2-month period, the investigators measured their oxygen saturation, pulse rate, weight and temperature each morning and recorded these and other data in a daily diary. Air pollution and weather conditions were obtained from fixed-site monitoring stations. The study made use of mixed regression models, adjusting for within-subject serial correlation and temporal trends, to determine the association between oxygen saturation and pulse rate and personal and environmental variables. Depending on the model, we accounted for the effects of a variety of personal variables (eg, body temperature, salt consumption) as well as nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone, maximum temperature and change in barometric pressure at 8:00 from the previous day. In multivariable analyses, the study found that oxygen saturation was reduced when subjects reported that they were ill, consumed salt, or drank liquids on the previous day and had higher body temperatures on the concurrent day (only the latter was statistically significant). Relative humidity and decreased atmospheric pressure from the previous day were associated with oxygen saturation. In univariate analyses, there was negative associations with concentrations of fine particulates, ozone, and sulphur dioxide (SO2), but only SO2 was significant after adjustment for the effects of weather. For pulse rate, no associations were found for the personal variables and in univariate analyses the study found positive associations with NO(2), fine particulates (aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 microm or under, PM(2.5)), SO2, and maximum temperature, although only the latter two were significant after adjustment for environmental effects. The findings from the present investigation suggest that personal and environmental conditions affect intermediate physiological parameters that may affect the health of CHF patients.

The association between diurnal temperature range and childhood bacillary dysentery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Li-ying; Zhao, Ke-fu; Cheng, Jian; Wang, Xu; Yang, Hui-hui; Li, Ke-sheng; Xu, Zhi-wei; Su, Hong

2016-02-01

Previous studies have found that mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures were associated with bacillary dysentery (BD). However, little is known about whether the within-day variation of temperature has any impact on bacillary dysentery. The current study aimed to identify the relationship between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and BD in Hefei, China. Daily data on BD counts among children aged 0-14 years from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2012 were retrieved from Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Daily data on ambient temperature and relative humidity covering the same period were collected from the Hefei Bureau of Meteorology. A Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used in the analysis after controlling the effects of season, long-term trends, mean temperature, and relative humidity. The results showed that there existed a statistically significant relationship between DTR and childhood BD. The DTR effect on childhood bacillary dysentery increased when DTR was over 8 °C. And it was greatest at 1-day lag, with an 8 % (95 % CI = 2.9-13.4 %) increase of BD cases per 5 °C increment of DTR. Male children and children aged 0-5 years appeared to be more vulnerable to the DTR effect. The data indicate that large DTR may increase the incidence of childhood BD. Caregivers and health practitioners should be made aware of the potential threat posed by large DTR. Therefore, DTR should be taken into consideration when making targeted health policies and programs to protect children from being harmed by climate impacts.

The association between diurnal temperature range and childhood bacillary dysentery.

PubMed

Wen, Li-ying; Zhao, Ke-fu; Cheng, Jian; Wang, Xu; Yang, Hui-hui; Li, Ke-sheng; Xu, Zhi-wei; Su, Hong

2016-02-01

Previous studies have found that mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures were associated with bacillary dysentery (BD). However, little is known about whether the within-day variation of temperature has any impact on bacillary dysentery. The current study aimed to identify the relationship between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and BD in Hefei, China. Daily data on BD counts among children aged 0-14 years from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2012 were retrieved from Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Daily data on ambient temperature and relative humidity covering the same period were collected from the Hefei Bureau of Meteorology. A Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used in the analysis after controlling the effects of season, long-term trends, mean temperature, and relative humidity. The results showed that there existed a statistically significant relationship between DTR and childhood BD. The DTR effect on childhood bacillary dysentery increased when DTR was over 8 °C. And it was greatest at 1-day lag, with an 8% (95% CI = 2.9-13.4%) increase of BD cases per 5 °C increment of DTR. Male children and children aged 0-5 years appeared to be more vulnerable to the DTR effect. The data indicate that large DTR may increase the incidence of childhood BD. Caregivers and health practitioners should be made aware of the potential threat posed by large DTR. Therefore, DTR should be taken into consideration when making targeted health policies and programs to protect children from being harmed by climate impacts.

Recent climate trends and implications for water resources in the Catskill Mountain region, New York, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, Douglas A.; Klaus, Julian; McHale, Michael R.

2007-01-01

Climate scientists have concluded that the earth’s surface air temperature warmed by 0.6 °C during the 20th century, and that warming induced by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is likely to continue in the 21st century, accompanied by changes in the hydrologic cycle. Climate change has important implications in the Catskill region of southeastern New York State, because the region is a source of water supply for New York City. We used the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test to evaluate annual, monthly, and multi-month trends in air temperature, precipitation amount, stream runoff, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) in the region during 1952–2005 based on data from 9 temperature sites, 12 precipitation sites, and 8 stream gages. A general pattern of warming temperatures and increased precipitation, runoff, and PET is evident in the region. Regional annual mean air temperature increased significantly by 0.6 °C per 50 years during the period; the greatest increases and largest number of significant upward trends were in daily minimum air temperature. Daily maximum air temperature showed the greatest increase during February through April, whereas minimum air temperature showed the greatest increase during May through September. Regional mean precipitation increased significantly by 136 mm per 50 years, nearly double that of the regional mean increase in runoff, which was not significant. Regional mean PET increased significantly by 19 mm per 50 years, about one-seventh that of the increase in precipitation amount, and broadly consistent with increased runoff during 1952–2005, despite the lack of significance in the mean regional runoff trend. Peak snowmelt as approximated by the winter–spring center of volume of stream runoff generally shifted from early April at the beginning of the record to late March at the end of the record, consistent with a decreasing trend in April runoff and an increasing trend in maximum March air temperature. This change indicates an increased supply of water to reservoirs earlier in the year. Additionally, the supply of water to reservoirs at the beginning of winter is greater as indicated by the timing of the greatest increases in precipitation and runoff—both occurred during summer and fall. The future balance between changes in air temperature and changes in the timing and amount of precipitation in the region will have important implications for the available water supply in the region.

Spawning characteristics of redband trout in a headwater stream in Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muhlfeld, Clint C.

2002-01-01

I investigated the spawning characteristics of redband trout Oncorhynchus mykiss gairdneri (a rainbow trout subspecies) during the spring of 1998 in Basin Creek, a third-order headwater stream located in the Kootenai River drainage in northwestern Montana. I examined the timing of spawning as related to discharge and water temperature and analyzed microhabitat selection of 30 completed redds in a low-gradient (0.5–1.5%) reach. Redband trout spawned as flow declined after peak runoff and as mean daily water temperature exceeded 6.0C and maximum daily temperature exceeded 7.0C. Redband trout began spawning on 6 June (mean daily discharge = 2.1 m3/s), 10 d after the peak discharge (8.7 m3/s) occurred. The last redd was completed on 24 June, when discharge was 1.5 m3/s. The mean total redd length was 53 cm (SD = 14; range = 31–91 cm), and the mean total area was 51 cm2 (SD = 8; range= 46– 76 cm2). Eighty percent of the redds were located in pool tailouts, 13% in runs, and 7% in riffles. Spawning redband trout selected redd sites based on substrate size and water depth but not water velocity. Fish selected substrate sizes of 2–6 mm, water depths of 20–30 cm, and water velocities of 40–70 cm/s. My results suggest that redband trout in a low-gradient, third-order mountain stream found suitable spawning habitat in pool tail-outs that contained abundant gravels.

Regional model simulations of New Zealand climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renwick, James A.; Katzfey, Jack J.; Nguyen, Kim C.; McGregor, John L.

1998-03-01

Simulation of New Zealand climate is examined through the use of a regional climate model nested within the output of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation nine-level general circulation model (GCM). R21 resolution GCM output is used to drive a regional model run at 125 km grid spacing over the Australasian region. The 125 km run is used in turn to drive a simulation at 50 km resolution over New Zealand. Simulations with a full seasonal cycle are performed for 10 model years. The focus is on the quality of the simulation of present-day climate, but results of a doubled-CO2 run are discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of mean simulated precipitation and surface temperatures improve markedly as horizontal resolution is increased, through the better resolution of the country's orography. However, increased horizontal resolution leads to a positive bias in precipitation. At 50 km resolution, simulated frequency distributions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are statistically similar to those of observations at many stations, while frequency distributions of daily precipitation appear to be statistically different to those of observations at most stations. Modeled daily precipitation variability at 125 km resolution is considerably less than observed, but is comparable to, or exceeds, observed variability at 50 km resolution. The sensitivity of the simulated climate to changes in the specification of the land surface is discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of the frequency of extreme temperatures and precipitation are generally well modeled. Under a doubling of CO2, the frequency of precipitation extremes changes only slightly at most locations, while air frosts become virtually unknown except at high-elevation sites.

Evaluation of different recall periods for the US National Cancer Institute's PRO-CTCAE.

PubMed

Mendoza, Tito R; Dueck, Amylou C; Bennett, Antonia V; Mitchell, Sandra A; Reeve, Bryce B; Atkinson, Thomas M; Li, Yuelin; Castro, Kathleen M; Denicoff, Andrea; Rogak, Lauren J; Piekarz, Richard L; Cleeland, Charles S; Sloan, Jeff A; Schrag, Deborah; Basch, Ethan

2017-06-01

The US National Cancer Institute recently developed the PRO-CTCAE (Patient-Reported Outcomes version of the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events). PRO-CTCAE is a library of questions for clinical trial participants to self-report symptomatic adverse events (e.g. nausea). The objective of this study is to inform evidence-based selection of a recall period when PRO-CTCAE is included in a trial. We evaluated differences between 1-, 2-, 3-, and 4-week recall periods, using daily reporting as the reference. English-speaking patients with cancer receiving chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy were enrolled at four US cancer centers and affiliated community clinics. Participants completed 27 PRO-CTCAE items electronically daily for 28 days, and then weekly over 4 weeks, using 1-, 2-, 3-, and 4-week recall periods. For each recall period, mean differences, effect sizes, and intraclass correlation coefficients were calculated to evaluate agreement between the maximum of daily ratings and the corresponding ratings obtained using longer recall periods (e.g. maximum of daily scores over 7 days vs 1-week recall). Analyses were repeated using the average of daily scores within each recall period rather than the maximum of daily scores. A total of 127 subjects completed questionnaires (57% male; median age: 57). The median of the 27 mean differences in scores on the PRO-CTCAE 5-point response scale comparing the maximum daily versus the longer recall period (and corresponding effect size) was -0.20 (-0.20) for 1-week recall, -0.36 (-0.31) for 2-week recall, -0.45 (-0.39) for 3-week recall, and -0.47 (-0.40) for 4-week recall. The median intraclass correlation across 27 items between the maximum of daily ratings and the corresponding longer recall ratings for 1-week recall was 0.70 (range: 0.54-0.82), for 2-week recall was 0.74 (range: 0.58-0.83), for 3-week recall was 0.72 (range: 0.61-0.84), and for 4-week recall was 0.72 (range: 0.64-0.86). Similar results were observed for all analyses using the average of daily scores rather than the maximum of daily scores. A 1-week recall corresponds best to daily reporting. Although intraclass correlations remain stable over time, there are small but progressively larger differences between daily and longer recall periods at 2, 3, and 4 weeks, respectively. The preferred recall period for the PRO-CTCAE is the past 7 days, although investigators may opt for recall periods of 2, 3, or 4 weeks with an understanding that there may be some information loss.

Association between ozone and asthma emergency department visits in Saint John, New Brunswick, Canada.

PubMed Central

Stieb, D M; Burnett, R T; Beveridge, R C; Brook, J R

1996-01-01

This study examines the relationship of asthma emergency department (ED) visits to daily concentrations of ozone and other air pollutants in Saint John, New Brunswick, Canada. Data on ED visits with a presenting complaint of asthma (n = 1987) were abstracted for the period 1984-1992 (May-September). Air pollution variables included ozone, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfate, and total suspended particulate (TSP); weather variables included temperature, humidex, dewpoint, and relative humidity. Daily ED visit frequencies were filtered to remove day of the week and long wave trends, and filtered values were regressed on air pollution and weather variables for the same day and the 3 previous days. The mean daily 1-hr maximum ozone concentration during the study period was 41.6 ppb. A positive, statistically significant (p < 0.05) association was observed between ozone and asthma ED visits 2 days later, and the strength of the association was greater in nonlinear models. The frequency of asthma ED visits was 33% higher (95% CI, 10-56%) when the daily 1-hr maximum ozone concentration exceeded 75 ppb (the 95th percentile). The ozone effect was not significantly influenced by the addition of weather or other pollutant variables into the model or by the exclusion of repeat ED visits. However, given the limited number of sampling days for sulfate and TSP, a particulate effect could not be ruled out. We detected a significant association between ozone and asthma ED visits, despite the vast majority of sampling days being below current U.S. and Canadian standards. Images Figure 1. A Figure 1. B Figure 2. Figure 3. PMID:9118879

Modeling Streamflow and Water Temperature in the North Santiam and Santiam Rivers, Oregon, 2001-02

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sullivan, Annett B.; Roundsk, Stewart A.

2004-01-01

To support the development of a total maximum daily load (TMDL) for water temperature in the Willamette Basin, the laterally averaged, two-dimensional model CE-QUAL-W2 was used to construct a water temperature and streamflow model of the Santiam and North Santiam Rivers. The rivers were simulated from downstream of Detroit and Big Cliff dams to the confluence with the Willamette River. Inputs to the model included bathymetric data, flow and temperature from dam releases, tributary flow and temperature, and meteorologic data. The model was calibrated for the period July 1 through November 21, 2001, and confirmed with data from April 1 through October 31, 2002. Flow calibration made use of data from two streamflow gages and travel-time and river-width data. Temperature calibration used data from 16 temperature monitoring locations in 2001 and 5 locations in 2002. A sensitivity analysis was completed by independently varying input parameters, including point-source flow, air temperature, flow and water temperature from dam releases, and riparian shading. Scenario analyses considered hypothetical river conditions without anthropogenic heat inputs, with restored riparian vegetation, with minimum streamflow from the dams, and with a more-natural seasonal water temperature regime from dam releases.

Mini-incubators improve the adventitious rooting performance of Corymbia and Eucalyptus microcuttings according to the environment in which they are conditioned.

PubMed

Brondani, Gilvano E; Oliveira, Leandro S DE; Konzen, Enéas R; Silva, André L L DA; Costa, Jefferson L

2017-10-16

We addressed a major challenge in the in vitro clonal propagation of Corymbia citriodora, Eucalyptus urophylla and E. benthamii by using an ex vitro adventitious rooting strategy in a mini-incubator. Mini-incubators were placed in four environments for rooting. A shade house with no fogging system and a greenhouse with no ventilation but with a fogging environment had the best performance in terms of rooting, root growth and survival of microcuttings. Daily recording of the temperature within each mini-incubator in each environment allowed the verification of negative correlations between the maximum average temperature and the survival, adventitious rooting and root growth. The ideal maximum air temperature for the efficient production of clonal plants was 28.4°C (± 5.5°C), and the minimum was 20.3°C (± 6.2°C). E. benthamii was more sensitive to higher temperatures than C. citriodora and E. urophylla. Nevertheless, placing mini-incubators in the shade house with no fogging system resulted in a stable and uniform performance among the three species, with 100.0% survival and 81.4% rooting. Histological sections of the adventitious roots revealed connection with the stem vascular cambium. Therefore, our experimental system demonstrated the potential of mini-incubators coupled with the proper environment to optimize the adventitious rooting performance of microcuttings.

Evaluation of dynamically downscaled extreme temperature using a spatially-aggregated generalized extreme value (GEV) model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jiali; Han, Yuefeng; Stein, Michael L.

2016-02-10

The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model downscaling skill in extreme maximum daily temperature is evaluated by using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. While the GEV distribution has been used extensively in climatology and meteorology for estimating probabilities of extreme events, accurately estimating GEV parameters based on data from a single pixel can be difficult, even with fairly long data records. This work proposes a simple method assuming that the shape parameter, the most difficult of the three parameters to estimate, does not vary over a relatively large region. This approach is applied to evaluate 31-year WRF-downscaled extreme maximummore » temperature through comparison with North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data. Uncertainty in GEV parameter estimates and the statistical significance in the differences of estimates between WRF and NARR are accounted for by conducting bootstrap resampling. Despite certain biases over parts of the United States, overall, WRF shows good agreement with NARR in the spatial pattern and magnitudes of GEV parameter estimates. Both WRF and NARR show a significant increase in extreme maximum temperature over the southern Great Plains and southeastern United States in January and over the western United States in July. The GEV model shows clear benefits from the regionally constant shape parameter assumption, for example, leading to estimates of the location and scale parameters of the model that show coherent spatial patterns.« less

Short-term association between environmental factors and hospital admissions due to dementia in Madrid.

PubMed

Linares, C; Culqui, D; Carmona, R; Ortiz, C; Díaz, J

2017-01-01

Spain has one of the highest proportions of dementia in the world among the population aged 60 years or over. Recent studies link various environmental factors to neurocognitive-type diseases. This study sought to analyse whether urban risk factors such as traffic noise, pollutants and heat waves might have a short-term impact on exacerbation of symptoms of dementia, leading to emergency hospital admission. We conducted a longitudinal ecological time-series study, with the dependent variable being the number of daily dementia-related emergency (DDE) hospital admissions to Madrid municipal hospitals (ICD-10 codes 290.0-290.2, 290.4-290.9, 294.1-294) from 01 to 01-2001 to 31-12-2009, as obtained from the Hospital Morbidity Survey (National Statistics Institute). The measures used were as follows: for noise pollution, Leqd, equivalent diurnal noise level (from 8 to 22h), and Leqn, equivalent nocturnal noise level (from 22 to 8h) in dB(A); for chemical pollution, mean daily NO2, PM2.5, PM1 as provided by the Madrid Municipal Air Quality Monitoring Grid; and lastly, maximum daily temperature (°C), as supplied by the State Meteorological Agency. Scatterplot diagrams were plotted to assess the type of functional relationship existing between the main variable of analysis and the environmental variables. The lags of the environmental variables were calculated to analyse the timing of the effect. Poisson regression models were fitted, controlling for trends and seasonalities, to quantify relative risk (RR). During the study period, there were 1175 DDE hospital admissions. These admissions displayed a linear functional relationship without a threshold in the case of Leqd. The RR of DDE admissions was 1.15 (1.11-1.20) for an increase of 1dB in Leqd, with impact at lag 0. In the case of maximum daily temperature, there was a threshold temperature of 34°C, with an increase of 1°C over this threshold posing an RR of 1.19 (1.09-1.30) at lag 1. The only pollutant to show an association with DDE hospital admissions was O3 at lag 5, with an RR of 1.09 (1.04-1.15) for an increase of 10µg/m 3 CONCLUSIONS: Diurnal traffic noise, heat waves and tropospheric ozone may exacerbate the symptoms of dementia to the point of requiring emergency admission to hospital. Lowering exposure levels to these environmental factors could reduce dementia-related admissions in Madrid. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of air pollution and temperature on adverse birth outcomes: Madrid, 2001-2009.

PubMed

Arroyo, Virginia; Díaz, Julio; Carmona, Rocío; Ortiz, Cristina; Linares, Cristina

2016-11-01

Low birth weight (<2500 g) (LBW), premature birth (<37 weeks of gestation) (PB), and late foetal death (<24 h of life) (LFD) are causes of perinatal morbi-mortality, with short- and long-term social and economic health impacts. This study sought to identify gestational windows of susceptibility during pregnancy and to analyse and quantify the impact of different air pollutants, noise and temperature on the adverse birth outcomes. Time-series study to assess the impact of mean daily PM 2.5 , NO 2 and O 3 (μg/m 3 ), mean daily diurnal (Leqd) and nocturnal (Leqn) noise levels (dB(A)), maximum and minimum daily temperatures (°C) on the number of births with LBW, PB or LFD in Madrid across the period 2001-2009. We controlled for linear trend, seasonality and autoregression. Poisson regression models were fitted for quantification of the results. The final models were expressed as relative risk (RR) and population attributable risk (PAR). Leqd was observed to have the following impacts in LBW: at onset of gestation, in the second trimester and in the week of birth itself. NO 2 had an impact in the second trimester. In the case of PB, the following: Leqd in the second trimester, Leqn in the week before birth and PM 2.5 in the second trimester. In the case of LFD, impacts were observed for both PM 2.5 in the third trimester, and minimum temperature. O 3 proved significant in the first trimester for LBW and PB, and in the second trimester for LFD. Pollutants concentrations, noise and temperature influenced the weekly average of new-borns with LBW, PB and LFD in Madrid. Special note should be taken of the effect of diurnal noise on LBW across the entire pregnancy. The exposure of pregnant population to the environmental factors analysed should therefore be controlled with a view to reducing perinatal morbi-mortality. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Taking the heat: thermoregulation in Asian elephants under different climatic conditions.

PubMed

Weissenböck, Nicole M; Arnold, Walter; Ruf, Thomas

2012-02-01

Some mammals indigenous to desert environments, such as camels, cope with high heat load by tolerating an increase in body temperature (T (b)) during the hot day, and by dissipating excess heat during the cooler night hours, i.e., heterothermy. Because diurnal heat storage mechanisms should be favoured by large body size, we investigated whether this response also exists in Asian elephants when exposed to warm environmental conditions of their natural habitat. We compared daily cycles of intestinal T (b) of 11 adult Asian elephants living under natural ambient temperatures (T (a)) in Thailand (mean T (a) ~ 30°C) and in 6 Asian elephants exposed to cooler conditions (mean T (a) ~ 21°C) in Germany. Elephants in Thailand had mean daily ranges of T (b) oscillations (1.15°C) that were significantly larger than in animals kept in Germany (0.51°C). This was due to both increased maximum T (b) during the day and decreased minimum T (b) at late night. Elephant's minimum T (b) lowered daily as T (a) increased and hence entered the day with a thermal reserve for additional heat storage, very similar to arid-zone ungulates. We conclude that these responses show all characteristics of heterothermy, and that this thermoregulatory strategy is not restricted to desert mammals, but is also employed by Asian elephants.

Climate Forcing Datasets for Agricultural Modeling: Merged Products for Gap-Filling and Historical Climate Series Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Goldberg, Richard; Chryssanthacopoulos, James

2014-01-01

The AgMERRA and AgCFSR climate forcing datasets provide daily, high-resolution, continuous, meteorological series over the 1980-2010 period designed for applications examining the agricultural impacts of climate variability and climate change. These datasets combine daily resolution data from retrospective analyses (the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, MERRA, and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, CFSR) with in situ and remotely-sensed observational datasets for temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, leading to substantial reductions in bias in comparison to a network of 2324 agricultural-region stations from the Hadley Integrated Surface Dataset (HadISD). Results compare favorably against the original reanalyses as well as the leading climate forcing datasets (Princeton, WFD, WFD-EI, and GRASP), and AgMERRA distinguishes itself with substantially improved representation of daily precipitation distributions and extreme events owing to its use of the MERRA-Land dataset. These datasets also peg relative humidity to the maximum temperature time of day, allowing for more accurate representation of the diurnal cycle of near-surface moisture in agricultural models. AgMERRA and AgCFSR enable a number of ongoing investigations in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) and related research networks, and may be used to fill gaps in historical observations as well as a basis for the generation of future climate scenarios.

Weekend personal ultraviolet radiation exposure in four cities in Australia: influence of temperature, humidity and ambient ultraviolet radiation.

PubMed

Xiang, Fan; Harrison, Simone; Nowak, Madeleine; Kimlin, Michael; Van der Mei, Ingrid; Neale, Rachel E; Sinclair, Craig; Lucas, Robyn M

2015-02-01

To examine the effects of meteorological factors on weekend sun exposure behaviours and personal received dose of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) in Australian adults. Australian adults (n=1002) living in Townsville (19°S, 146°E), Brisbane (27°S, 153°E), Canberra (35°S, 149°E) and Hobart (43°S, 147°E) were recruited between 2009 and 2010. Data on sun exposure behaviours were collected by daily sun exposure dairies; personal UVR exposure was measured with a polysulphone dosimeter. Meteorological data were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology; ambient UVR levels were estimated using the Ozone Monitoring Instrument data. Higher daily maximum temperatures were associated with reduced likelihood of wearing a long-sleeved shirt or wearing long trousers in Canberra and Hobart, and higher clothing-adjusted UVR dose in Canberra. Higher daily humidity was associated with less time spent outdoors in Canberra. Higher ambient UVR level was related to a greater clothing-adjusted personal UVR dose in Hobart and a greater likelihood of using sunscreen in Townsville. The current findings enhance our understanding of the impact of weather conditions on the population's sun exposure behaviours. This information will allow us to refine current predictive models for UVR-related diseases, and guide future health service and health promotion needs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate Data Bases of the People's Republic of China 1841-1988 (TR-055)

DOE Data Explorer

Kaiser, Dale. [Oak Ridge National Lab, Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Carbon Dioxide Analysis Center (CDIAC); Tao, Shiyan [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Fu, Congbin [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Zeng, Zhaomei [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing, China; Zhang, Qingyun [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); Wang, Wei-Chyung [University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York (USA); Atmospheric Science Research Center; Karl, Thomas [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Asheville, North Carolina (USA); Global Climate Laboratory, National Climatic Data Center

1993-01-01

A data base containing meteorological observations from the People's Republic of China (PRC) is described. These data were compiled in accordance with a joint research agreement signed by the U.S. Department of Energy and the PRC Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) on August 19, 1987. CAS's Institute of Atmospheric Physics (Beijing, PRC) has provided records from 296 stations, organized into five data sets: (1) a 60-station data set containing monthly measurements of barometric pressure, surface air temperature, precipitation amount, relative humidity, sunshine duration, cloud amount, wind direction and speed, and number of days with snow cover; (2) a 205-station data set containing monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals; (3) a 40-station subset of the 205-station data set containing monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures and monthly extreme maximum and minimum temperatures; (4) a 180-station data set containing daily precipitation totals; and (5) a 147-station data set containing 10-day precipitation totals. Sixteen stations from these data sets (13 from the 60-station set and 3 from the 205-station set) have temperature and/or precipitation records that begin prior to 1900, whereas the remaining stations began observing in the early to mid-1900s. Records from most stations extend through 1988. (Note: Users interested in the TR055 60-station data set should acquire expanded and updated data from CDIAC's NDP-039, Two Long-Term Instrumental Climatic Data Bases of the People's Republic of China)

[Impacts of climate warming on growth period and yield of rice in Northeast China during recent two decades].

PubMed

Hou, Wen-jia; Geng, Ting; Chen, Qun; Chen, Chang-qing

2015-01-01

By using rice growth period, yield and climate observation data during the recent two decades, the impact of climate warming on rice in Northeast China was investigated by mathematical statistics methods. The results indicated that in the three provinces of Northeast China, the average, maximum and minimum temperatures in rice growing season were on the. rise, and the rainfall presented a downward trend during 1989-2009. Compared to 1990s, the rice whole growth periods of Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning provinces in 2000s were prolonged 14 d, 4.5 d and 5.1 d, respectively. The increase of temperature in May, June and September could extend the rice growth period, while that in July would shorten the growth duration. The rice growth duration of registered varieties and experiment sites had a similar increasing trend in Northeast China except for the Heilongjiang Province, and the extension of registered varieties growth period was the main factor causing the prolonged growth period of rice at experiment sites. The change in daily average, minimum and maximum temperatures all could affect the rice yield in Northeast China. The increasing temperature significantly increased the rice yield in Heilongjiang Province, especially in the west region of Sanjiang Plain. Except for the south of Liaoning Province, rice yields in other regions of Northeast China were promoted by increasing temperature. Proper measures for breeding, cultivation and farming, could be adopted to fully improve the adaptation of rice to climate warming in Northeast China.

The potential benefits of location-specific biometeorological indexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Ho Ting; Wang, Jinfeng; Yin, Qian; Chen, Si; Lai, Poh Chin

2017-09-01

It is becoming popular to use biometeorological indexes to study the effects of weather on human health. Most of the biometeorological indexes were developed decades ago and only applicable to certain locations because of different climate types. Merely using standard biometeorological indexes to replace typical weather factors in biometeorological studies of different locations may not be an ideal research direction. This research is aimed at assessing the difference of statistical power between using standard biometeorological indexes and typical weather factors on describing the effects of extreme weather conditions on daily ambulance demands in Hong Kong. Results showed that net effective temperature and apparent temperature did not perform better than typical weather factors in describing daily ambulance demands in this study. The maximum adj- R 2 improvement was only 0.08, whereas the maximum adj- R 2 deterioration was 0.07. In this study, biometeorological indexes did not perform better than typical weather factors, possibly due to the differences of built environments and lifestyles in different locations and eras. Regarding built environments, the original parameters for calculating the index values may not be applicable to Hong Kong as buildings in Hong Kong are extremely dense and most are equipped with air conditioners. Regarding lifestyles, the parameters, which were set decades ago, may be outdated and not suitable to modern lifestyles as using hand-held electrical fans on the street to help reduce heat stress are popular. Hence, it is ideal to have tailor-made updated location-specific biometeorological indexes to study the effects of weather on human health.

Effect of climate change on annual fluctuations in the population density of the brown marmorated stink bug (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in northern Japan.

PubMed

Funayama, Ken

2013-10-01

The relationship between the population density of overwintering adults of the brown marmorated stink bug and the temperatures of each month during the preceding November to April was investigated in Akita Prefecture, northern Japan, from 1999 to 2012. The number of adults entering traps for overwintering at the monitored hibernation site differed considerably among years. There was a significant negative correlation between the increase ratio (the ratio of the number collected in the current year to the number collected in the previous year) and the mean daily maximum temperature of the preceding March and April. These results suggest that the proportion of surviving adult brown marmorated stink bug may be higher when temperatures in early spring (March and April) are lower, as the postoverwintering adults may need to survive without food for a shorter period of time.

40 CFR 130.7 - Total maximum daily loads (TMDL) and individual water quality-based effluent limitations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Total maximum daily loads (TMDL) and individual water quality-based effluent limitations. 130.7 Section 130.7 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) WATER PROGRAMS WATER QUALITY PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT § 130.7 Total...

40 CFR 130.7 - Total maximum daily loads (TMDL) and individual water quality-based effluent limitations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Total maximum daily loads (TMDL) and individual water quality-based effluent limitations. 130.7 Section 130.7 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) WATER PROGRAMS WATER QUALITY PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT § 130.7 Total...

76 FR 30338 - Hill-Lake Gas Storage, LLC; Notice of Filing

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-25

... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission [Docket No. PR11-110-000] Hill-Lake Gas Storage, LLC; Notice of Filing Take notice that on May 13, 2011, Hill-Lake Gas Storage, LLC filed to update its address and to clarify definitions for Maximum Daily Withdrawal Quantity and Maximum Daily...

Evaluation of the Impact of Ambient Temperatures on Occupational Injuries in Spain.

PubMed

Martínez-Solanas, Èrica; López-Ruiz, María; Wellenius, Gregory A; Gasparrini, Antonio; Sunyer, Jordi; Benavides, Fernando G; Basagaña, Xavier

2018-06-01

Extreme cold and heat have been linked to an increased risk of occupational injuries. However, the evidence is still limited to a small number of studies of people with relatively few injuries and with a limited geographic extent, and the corresponding economic effect has not been studied in detail. We assessed the relationship between ambient temperatures and occupational injuries in Spain along with its economic effect. The daily number of occupational injuries that caused at least one day of leave and the daily maximum temperature were obtained for each Spanish province for the years 1994-2013. We estimated temperature-injuries associations with distributed lag nonlinear models, and then pooled the results using a multivariate meta-regression model. We calculated the number of injuries attributable to cold and heat, the corresponding workdays lost, and the resulting economic effect. The study included 15,992,310 occupational injuries. Overall, 2.72% [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.44-2.97] of all occupational injuries were attributed to nonoptimal ambient temperatures, with moderate heat accounting for the highest fraction. This finding corresponds to an estimated 0.67 million (95% CI: 0.60-0.73) person-days of work lost every year in Spain due to temperature, or an annual average of 42 d per 1,000 workers. The estimated annual economic burden is €370 million, or 0.03% of Spain's GDP (€2,015). Our findings suggest that extreme ambient temperatures increased the risk of occupational injuries, with substantial estimated health and economic costs. These results call for public health interventions to protect workers in the context of climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2590.

Association between high temperature and work-related injuries in Adelaide, South Australia, 2001-2010.

PubMed

Xiang, Jianjun; Bi, Peng; Pisaniello, Dino; Hansen, Alana; Sullivan, Thomas

2014-04-01

(1) To investigate the association between temperature and work-related injuries and (2) to identify groups of workers at high risk of work-related injuries in hot environments in Adelaide, South Australia. Workers' compensation claims in Adelaide, South Australia for 2001-2010 were used. The relationship between temperature and daily injury claims was estimated using a generalised estimating equation model. A piecewise linear spline function was used to quantify the effect of temperature on injury claims below and above thresholds. Overall, a 1°C increase in maximum temperature between 14.2°C and 37.7°C was associated with a 0.2% increase in daily injury claims. Specifically, the incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for male workers and young workers aged ≤24 were (1.004, 95% CI 1.002 to 1.006) and (1.005, 95% CI 1.002 to 1.008), respectively. Significant associations were also found for labourers (IRR 1.005, 95% CI 1.001 to 1.010), intermediate production and transport workers (IRR 1.003, 95% CI 1.001 to 1.005) and tradespersons (IRR 1.002, 95% CI 1.001 to 1.005). Industries at risk were agriculture, forestry and fishing (IRR 1.007, 95% CI 1.001 to 1.013), construction (IRR 1.006, 95% CI 1.002 to 1.011), and electricity, gas and water (IRR 1.029, 95% CI 1.002 to 1.058). There is a significant association between injury claims and temperature in Adelaide, South Australia, for certain industries and groups. Relevant adaptation and prevention measures are required at both policy and practice levels to address occupational exposure to high temperatures.

Applications of a New England stream temperature model to ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We have applied a statistical stream network (SSN) model to predict stream thermal metrics (summer monthly medians, growing season maximum magnitude and timing, and daily rates of change) across New England nontidal streams and rivers, excluding northern Maine watersheds that extend into Canada (Detenbeck et al., in review). We excluded stream temperature observations within one kilometer downstream of dams from our model development, so our predictions for those reaches represent potential thermal regimes in the absence of dam effects. We used stream thermal thresholds for mean July temperatures delineating transitions between coldwater, transitional coolwater, and warmwater fish communities derived by Beauchene et al. (2014) to classify expected stream and river thermal regimes across New England. Within the model domain and based on 2006 land-use and air temperatures, the model predicts that 21.8% of stream + river kilometers would support coldwater fish communities (mean July water temperatures 22.3 degrees C mean July temperatures). Application of the model allows us to assess potential condition given full riparian zone restoration as well as potential loss of cold or coolwater habitat given loss of riparian shading. Given restoration of all ripa

Emergency department patient knowledge concerning acetaminophen (paracetamol) in over-the-counter and prescription analgesics.

PubMed

Fosnocht, D; Taylor, J R; Caravati, E M

2008-04-01

This study was designed to evaluate patient knowledge of the acetaminophen (paracetamol) content of commonly used pain medications and the maximum daily recommended dose of acetaminophen. A prospective, convenience sample of emergency department patients were enrolled. Data were recorded using a standardised questionnaire over 4 months. 1009 patients were enrolled. 492 patients (49%) did not know if Tylenol contained acetaminophen (paracetamol). The majority (66-90%) of patients did not know if Lortab, Vicodin, Percocet, non-aspirin pain reliever, ibuprofen, Motrin, or Advil contained acetaminophen. 568 patients (56%) reported not knowing the maximum daily dose of acetaminophen and only 71 patients (7%) reported the correct daily dose. Patient knowledge of the acetaminophen content of commonly used analgesic medications and its maximum recommended daily dose is limited. This may contribute to unintentional repeated supratherapeutic ingestion (RSTI) of acetaminophen, or overdose.

Evaluation and trends of land cover, streamflow, and water quality in the North Canadian River Basin near Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, 1968–2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esralew, Rachel A.; Andrews, William J.; Smith, S. Jerrod

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Oklahoma City, collected water-quality samples from the North Canadian River at the streamflow-gaging station near Harrah, Oklahoma (Harrah station), since 1968, and at an upstream streamflow-gaging station at Britton Road at Oklahoma City, Oklahoma (Britton Road station), since 1988. Statistical summaries and frequencies of detection of water-quality constituent data from water samples, and summaries of water-quality constituent data from continuous water-quality monitors are described from the start of monitoring at those stations through 2009. Differences in concentrations between stations and time trends for selected constituents were evaluated to determine the effects of: (1) wastewater effluent discharges, (2) changes in land-cover, (3) changes in streamflow, (4) increases in urban development, and (5) other anthropogenic sources of contamination on water quality in the North Canadian River downstream from Oklahoma City. Land-cover changes between 1992 and 2001 in the basin between the Harrah station and Lake Overholser upstream included an increase in developed/barren land-cover and a decrease in pasture/hay land cover. There were no significant trends in median and greater streamflows at either streamflow-gaging station, but there were significant downward trends in lesser streamflows, especially after 1999, which may have been associated with decreases in precipitation between 1999 and 2009 or construction of low-water dams on the river upstream from Oklahoma City in 1999. Concentrations of dissolved chloride, lead, cadmium, and chlordane most frequently exceeded the Criterion Continuous Concentration (a water-quality standard for protection of aquatic life) in water-quality samples collected at both streamflow-gaging stations. Visual trends in annual frequencies of detection were investigated for selected pesticides with frequencies of detection greater than 10 percent in all water samples collected at both streamflow-gaging stations. Annual frequencies of detection of 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid and bromacil increased with time. Annual frequencies of detection of atrazine, chlorpyrifos, diazinon, dichlorprop, and lindane decreased with time. Dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were significantly greater in water samples collected at the Harrah station than at the Britton Road station, whereas specific conductance was greater at the Britton Road station. Concentrations of dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, and fecal coliform bacteria were not significantly different between stations. Daily minimum, mean, and maximum specific conductance collected from continuous water-quality monitors were significantly greater at the Britton Road station than in water samples collected at the Harrah station. Daily minimum, maximum, and diurnal fluctuations of water temperature collected from continuous water-quality monitors were significantly greater at the Harrah station than at the Britton Road station. The daily maximums and diurnal range of dissolved oxygen concentrations were significantly greater in water samples collected at the Britton Road station than at the Harrah station, but daily mean dissolved oxygen concentrations in water at those streamflow-gaging stations were not significantly different. Daily mean and diurnal water temperature ranges increased with time at the Britton Road and Harrah streamflow-gaging stations, whereas daily mean and diurnal specific conductance ranges decreased with time at both streamflow-gaging stations from 1988–2009. Daily minimum dissolved oxygen concentrations collected from continuous water-quality monitors more frequently indicated hypoxic conditions at the Harrah station than at the Britton Road station after 1999. Fecal coliform bacteria counts in water decreased slightly from 1988–2009 at the Britton Road station. The Seasonal Kendall's tau test indicated significant downward trends in

Carbon Dioxide Concentrations and Temperatures within Tour Buses under Real-Time Traffic Conditions.

PubMed

Chiu, Chun-Fu; Chen, Ming-Hung; Chang, Feng-Hsiang

2015-01-01

This study monitored the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and temperatures of three 43-seat tour buses with high-passenger capacities in a course of a three-day, two-night school excursion. Results showed that both driver zones and passenger zones of the tour buses achieved maximum CO2 concentrations of more than 3000 ppm, and maximum daily average concentrations of 2510.6 and 2646.9 ppm, respectively. The findings confirmed that the CO2 concentrations detected in the tour buses exceeded the indoor air quality standard of Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (8 hr-CO2: 1000 ppm) and the air quality guideline of Hong Kong Environmental Protection Department (1 hr-CO2: 2500 ppm for Level 1 for buses). Observations also showed that high-capacity tour bus cabins with air conditioning system operating in recirculation mode are severely lacking in air exchange rate, which may negatively impact transportation safety. Moreover, the passenger zones were able to maintain a temperature of between 20 and 25°C during travel, which effectively suppresses the dispersion of volatile organic compounds. Finally, the authors suggest that in the journey, increasing the ventilation frequency of tour bus cabin, which is very beneficial to maintain the travel safety and enhance the quality of travel.

Carbon Dioxide Concentrations and Temperatures within Tour Buses under Real-Time Traffic Conditions

PubMed Central

Chiu, Chun-Fu; Chen, Ming-Hung; Chang, Feng-Hsiang

2015-01-01

This study monitored the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and temperatures of three 43-seat tour buses with high-passenger capacities in a course of a three-day, two-night school excursion. Results showed that both driver zones and passenger zones of the tour buses achieved maximum CO2 concentrations of more than 3000 ppm, and maximum daily average concentrations of 2510.6 and 2646.9 ppm, respectively. The findings confirmed that the CO2 concentrations detected in the tour buses exceeded the indoor air quality standard of Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (8 hr-CO2: 1000 ppm) and the air quality guideline of Hong Kong Environmental Protection Department (1 hr-CO2: 2500 ppm for Level 1 for buses). Observations also showed that high-capacity tour bus cabins with air conditioning system operating in recirculation mode are severely lacking in air exchange rate, which may negatively impact transportation safety. Moreover, the passenger zones were able to maintain a temperature of between 20 and 25°C during travel, which effectively suppresses the dispersion of volatile organic compounds. Finally, the authors suggest that in the journey, increasing the ventilation frequency of tour bus cabin, which is very beneficial to maintain the travel safety and enhance the quality of travel. PMID:25923722

A globally calibrated scheme for generating daily meteorology from monthly statistics: Global-WGEN (GWGEN) v1.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sommer, Philipp S.; Kaplan, Jed O.

2017-10-01

While a wide range of Earth system processes occur at daily and even subdaily timescales, many global vegetation and other terrestrial dynamics models historically used monthly meteorological forcing both to reduce computational demand and because global datasets were lacking. Recently, dynamic land surface modeling has moved towards resolving daily and subdaily processes, and global datasets containing daily and subdaily meteorology have become available. These meteorological datasets, however, cover only the instrumental era of the last approximately 120 years at best, are subject to considerable uncertainty, and represent extremely large data files with associated computational costs of data input/output and file transfer. For periods before the recent past or in the future, global meteorological forcing can be provided by climate model output, but the quality of these data at high temporal resolution is low, particularly for daily precipitation frequency and amount. Here, we present GWGEN, a globally applicable statistical weather generator for the temporal downscaling of monthly climatology to daily meteorology. Our weather generator is parameterized using a global meteorological database and simulates daily values of five common variables: minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, and wind speed. GWGEN is lightweight, modular, and requires a minimal set of monthly mean variables as input. The weather generator may be used in a range of applications, for example, in global vegetation, crop, soil erosion, or hydrological models. While GWGEN does not currently perform spatially autocorrelated multi-point downscaling of daily weather, this additional functionality could be implemented in future versions.

Haze is an important medium for the spread of rotavirus.

PubMed

Ye, Qing; Fu, Jun-Feng; Mao, Jian-Hua; Shen, Hong-Qiang; Chen, Xue-Jun; Shao, Wen-Xia; Shang, Shi-Qiang; Wu, Yi-Feng

2016-09-01

This study investigated whether the rotavirus infection rate in children is associated with temperature and air pollutants in Hangzhou, China. This study applied a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to assess the effects of daily meteorological data and air pollutants on the rotavirus positive rate among outpatient children. There was a negative correlation between temperature and the rotavirus infection rate. The impact of temperature on the detection rate of rotavirus presented an evident lag effect, the temperature change shows the greatest impact on the detection rate of rotavirus approximate at lag one day, and the maximum relative risk (RR) was approximately 1.3. In 2015, the maximum cumulative RR due to the cumulative effect caused by the temperature drop was 2.5. Particulate matter (PM) 2.5 and PM10 were the primary air pollutants in Hangzhou. The highest RR of rotavirus infection occurred at lag 1-1.5 days after the increase in the concentration of these pollutants, and the RR increased gradually with the increase in concentration. Based on the average concentrations of PM2.5 of 53.9 μg/m(3) and PM10 of 80.6 μg/m(3) in Hangzhou in 2015, the cumulative RR caused by the cumulative effect was 2.5 and 2.2, respectively. The current study suggests that temperature is an important factor impacting the rotavirus infection rate of children in Hangzhou. Air pollutants significantly increased the risk of rotavirus infection, and dosage, lag and cumulative effects were observed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prevailing trends of climatic extremes across Indus-Delta of Sindh-Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbas, Farhat; Rehman, Iqra; Adrees, Muhammad; Ibrahim, Muhammad; Saleem, Farhan; Ali, Shafaqat; Rizwan, Muhammad; Salik, Muhammad Raza

2018-02-01

This study examines the variability and change in the patterns of climatic extremes experienced in Indus-Delta of Sindh province of Pakistan, comprising regions of Karachi, Badin, Mohenjodaro, and Rohri. The homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation data for a 36-year period were used to calculate 13 and 11 indices of temperature and precipitation extremes with the help of RClimDex, a program written in the statistical software package R. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates were used to determine the statistical significance and magnitude of the calculated trend. Temperatures of summer days and tropical nights increased in the region with overall significant warming trends for monthly maximum temperature as well as for warm days and nights reflecting dry conditions in the study area. The warm extremes and nighttime temperature indices showed greater trends than cold extremes and daytime indices depicting an overall warming trends in the Delta. Historic decrease in the acreage of major crops and over 33% decrease in agriculture credit for Sindh are the indicators of adverse impacts of warmer and drier weather on Sindh agriculture. Trends reported for Karachi and Badin are expected to decrease rice cultivation, hatching of fisheries, and mangroves forest surrounding these cities. Increase in the prevailing temperature trends will lead to increasingly hotter and drier summers resulting to constraints on cotton, wheat, and rice yield in Rohri and Mohenjodaro areas due to increased crop water requirements that may be met with additional groundwater pumping; nonetheless, the depleted groundwater resources would have a direct impact on the region's economy.

An experimental analysis of electricity conservation procedures1

PubMed Central

Palmer, Michael H.; Lloyd, Margaret E.; Lloyd, Kenneth E.

1977-01-01

Daily electricity consumption of four families was recorded for 106 days. A reversal design, consisting of various experimental conditions interspersed between repeated baseline conditions, was used. During experimental conditions, daily prompts (written conservation slogans attached to front doors) and/or daily feedback (daily kilowatts consumed and daily cost information) were in effect. Maximum consumption occurred during the initial baseline; minimum consumption occurred during different experimental conditions for different families. The mean decrease from the maximum to the minimum for all families was 35%. Reversals in consumption were demonstrated in three families, although successive baselines tended to decrease. No clear differences in effectiveness between prompting and feedback conditions were apparent. The procedures used resulted in considerable dollar savings for the families. PMID:16795572

Air pollution potential: Regional study in Argentina

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gassmann, M.I.; Mazzeo, N.A.

2000-04-01

Air pollution potential is a measure of the atmospheric conditions that are unable to transport and dilute pollutants into the air, independently of the existence of sources. This potential can be determined from two atmospheric parameters; mixing height and transport wind. In this paper a statistical analysis of the mixing height and transport wind, in order to determine the areas with high or poor atmospheric ventilation in Argentina, is presented. In order to achieve this, meteorological data registered during 1979--1982 at eight meteorological stations were used. Daily values of the maximum mixing height were calculated from observations of daily temperaturesmore » at different heights and maximum surface temperature. At the same time as the maximum mixing height, the values of the transport wind were determined from the surface windspeed and the characteristics of the ground in the surroundings of each meteorological station. The mean seasonal values for both parameters were obtained. Isopleths of the mean seasonal of the maximum mixing heights were drawn. The percentage of seasonal frequencies of poor ventilation conditions were calculated and the frequency isopleths were also drawn to determine areas with minor and major relative frequencies. It was found that the northeastern and central-eastern regions of Argentina had a high air pollution potential during the whole year. Unfavorable atmospheric ventilation conditions were also found in the central-western side of the country during the cold seasons (37.5% in autumn and 56.9% in winter). The region with the greatest atmospheric ventilation is located south of 40{degree}S, where the frequency of poor ventilation varies between 8.0% in summer and 10.8% in winter.« less

Contribution of urbanization to the increase of extreme heat events in an urban agglomeration in east China: Urbanization and the Increase of EHEs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Xuchao; Ruby Leung, L.; Zhao, Naizhuo

The urban agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is emblematic of China’s rapid urbanization during the past decades. Based on homogenized daily maximum and minimum temperature data, the contributions of urbanization to trends of extreme temperature indices (ETIs) during summer in YRD are evaluated. Dynamically classifying the observational stations into urban and rural areas, this study presents unexplored changes in temperature extremes during the past four decades in the YRD region and quantifies the amplification of the positive trends in ETIs by the urban heat island effect. Overall, urbanization contributes to more than one third in the increase of intensitymore » of extreme heat events in the region, which is comparable to the contribution of greenhouse gases. Compared to rural stations, more notable shifts to the right in the probability distribution of temperature and ETIs were observed in urban stations.« less

Airborne monitoring of crop canopy temperatures for irrigation scheduling and yield prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Millard, J. P.; Jackson, R. D.; Goettelman, R. C.; Reginato, R. J.; Idso, S. B.; Lapado, R. L.

1977-01-01

Airborne and ground measurements were made on April 1 and 29, 1976, over a USDA test site consisting mostly of wheat in various stages of water stress, but also including alfalfa and bare soil. These measurements were made to evaluate the feasibility of measuring crop temperatures from aircraft so that a parameter termed stress degree day, SDD, could be computed. Ground studies have shown that SDD is a valuable indicator of a crop's water needs, and that it can be related to irrigation scheduling and yield. The aircraft measurement program required predawn and afternoon flights coincident with minimum and maximum crop temperatures. Airborne measurements were made with an infrared line scanner and with color IR photography. The scanner data were registered, subtracted, and color-coded to yield pseudo-colored temperature-difference images. Pseudo-colored images reading directly in daily SDD increments were also produced. These maps enable a user to assess plant water status and thus determine irrigation needs and crop yield potentials.

Stepping inside the niche: microclimate data are critical for accurate assessment of species' vulnerability to climate change

PubMed Central

Storlie, Collin; Merino-Viteri, Andres; Phillips, Ben; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Welbergen, Justin; Williams, Stephen

2014-01-01

To assess a species' vulnerability to climate change, we commonly use mapped environmental data that are coarsely resolved in time and space. Coarsely resolved temperature data are typically inaccurate at predicting temperatures in microhabitats used by an organism and may also exhibit spatial bias in topographically complex areas. One consequence of these inaccuracies is that coarsely resolved layers may predict thermal regimes at a site that exceed species' known thermal limits. In this study, we use statistical downscaling to account for environmental factors and develop high-resolution estimates of daily maximum temperatures for a 36 000 km2 study area over a 38-year period. We then demonstrate that this statistical downscaling provides temperature estimates that consistently place focal species within their fundamental thermal niche, whereas coarsely resolved layers do not. Our results highlight the need for incorporation of fine-scale weather data into species' vulnerability analyses and demonstrate that a statistical downscaling approach can yield biologically relevant estimates of thermal regimes. PMID:25252835

Geographical and Geomorphological Effects on Air Temperatures in the Columbia Basin's Signature Vineyards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, L.; Pogue, K. R.; Bader, N.

2012-12-01

The Columbia Basin of Washington and Oregon is one of the most productive grape-growing areas in the United States. Wines produced in this region are influenced by their terroir - the amalgamation of physical and cultural elements that influence grapes grown at a particular vineyard site. Of the physical factors, climate, and in particular air temperature, has been recognized as a primary influence on viticulture. Air temperature directly affects ripening in the grapes. Proper fruit ripening, which requires precise and balanced levels of acid and sugar, and the accumulation of pigment in the grape skin, directly correlates with the quality of wine produced. Many features control air temperature within a particular vineyard. Elevation, latitude, slope, and aspect all converge to form complex relationships with air temperatures; however, the relative degree to which these attributes affect temperatures varies between regions and is not well understood. This study examines the influence of geography and geomorphology on air temperatures within the American Viticultural Areas (AVAs) of the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington and Oregon. The premier vineyards within each AVA, which have been recognized for producing high-quality wine, were equipped with air temperature monitoring stations that collected hourly temperature measurements. A variety of temperature statistics were calculated, including daily average, maximum, and minimum temperatures. From these values, average diurnal variation and growing degree-days (10°C) were calculated. A variety of other statistics were computed, including date of first and last frost and time spent below a minimum temperature threshold. These parameters were compared to the vineyard's elevation, latitude, slope, aspect, and local topography using GPS, ArcCatalog, and GIS in an attempt to determine their relative influences on air temperatures. From these statistics, it was possible to delineate two trends of temperature variation controlled by elevation. In some AVAs, such as Walla Walla Valley and Red Mountain, average air temperatures increased with elevation because of the effect of cold air pooling on valley floors. In other AVAs, such as Horse Heaven Hills, Lake Chelan and Columbia Gorge, average temperatures decreased with elevation due to the moderating influences of the Columbia River and Lake Chelan. Other temperature statistics, including average diurnal range and maximum and minimum temperature, were influenced by relative topography, including local topography and slope. Vineyards with flat slopes that had low elevations relative to their surroundings had larger diurnal variations and lower maximum and minimum temperatures than vineyards with steeper slopes that were high relative to their surroundings.