The Impact of Cycling Temperature on the Transmission of West Nile Virus.

PubMed

Danforth, Mary E; Reisen, William K; Barker, Christopher M

2016-05-01

West Nile virus (WNV) is an important cause of disease in humans and animals. Risk of WNV infection varies seasonally, with the greatest risk during the warmest parts of the year due in part to the accelerated extrinsic incubation rate of the virus in mosquitoes. Rates of extrinsic incubation have been shown in constant-temperature studies to increase as an approximately linear function of temperature, but for other vector-borne pathogens, such as malaria or dengue virus, nonlinear relationships have been demonstrated under cycling temperatures near the thermal limits of pathogen replication. Using typical daily air temperature profiles from three key periods of WNV amplification in a hyperendemic area of WNV activity in California's Central Valley, as well as a fourth temperature profile based on exposures that would result from daily mosquito host-seeking and resting behavior, we explored the impacts of cycling temperatures on WNV transmission by Culex tarsalis Coquillett, one of the principal vectors in the western United States. The daily cycling temperature ranges studied were representative of those that occur across much of California, but they did not significantly alter the extrinsic incubation period of WNV compared with estimates from mean temperatures alone. This suggests that within the relatively broad range we studied, WNV incubation rates are a simple function of mean temperature. Realistic daily temperature patterns that reflected mosquitoes' avoidance of daytime high temperatures during summer reduced transmission over time compared with air temperatures, indicating that adjustment for mosquito exposure temperatures would be prudent for calculating risk. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Diameter-growth model across shortleaf pine range using regression tree analysis

Treesearch

Daniel Yaussy; Louis Iverson; Anantha Prasad

1999-01-01

Diameter growth of a tree in most gap-phase models is limited by light, nutrients, moisture, and temperature. Growing-season temperature is represented by growing degree days (gdd), which is the sum of the average daily temperatures above a baseline temperature. Gap-phase models determine the north-south range of a species by the gdd limits at the north and south...

Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xuebin; Aguilar, Enric; Sensoy, Serhat; Melkonyan, Hamlet; Tagiyeva, Umayra; Ahmed, Nader; Kutaladze, Nato; Rahimzadeh, Fatemeh; Taghipour, Afsaneh; Hantosh, T. H.; Albert, Pinhas; Semawi, Mohammed; Karam Ali, Mohammad; Said Al-Shabibi, Mansoor Halal; Al-Oulan, Zaid; Zatari, Taha; Al Dean Khelet, Imad; Hamoud, Saleh; Sagir, Ramazan; Demircan, Mesut; Eken, Mehmet; Adiguzel, Mustafa; Alexander, Lisa; Peterson, Thomas C.; Wallis, Trevor

2005-11-01

A climate change workshop for the Middle East brought together scientists and data for the region to produce the first area-wide analysis of climate extremes for the region. This paper reports trends in extreme precipitation and temperature indices that were computed during the workshop and additional indices data that became available after the workshop. Trends in these indices were examined for 1950-2003 at 52 stations covering 15 countries, including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cyprus, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey. Results indicate that there have been statistically significant, spatially coherent trends in temperature indices that are related to temperature increases in the region. Significant, increasing trends have been found in the annual maximum of daily maximum and minimum temperature, the annual minimum of daily maximum and minimum temperature, the number of summer nights, and the number of days where daily temperature has exceeded its 90th percentile. Significant negative trends have been found in the number of days when daily temperature is below its 10th percentile and daily temperature range. Trends in precipitation indices, including the number of days with precipitation, the average precipitation intensity, and maximum daily precipitation events, are weak in general and do not show spatial coherence. The workshop attendees have generously made the indices data available for the international research community.

Characterizing microclimate in urban malaria transmission settings: a case study from Chennai, India.

PubMed

Cator, Lauren J; Thomas, Shalu; Paaijmans, Krijn P; Ravishankaran, Sangamithra; Justin, Johnson A; Mathai, Manu T; Read, Andrew F; Thomas, Matthew B; Eapen, Alex

2013-03-02

Environmental temperature is an important driver of malaria transmission dynamics. Both the parasite and vector are sensitive to mean ambient temperatures and daily temperature variation. To understand transmission ecology, therefore, it is important to determine the range of microclimatic temperatures experienced by malaria vectors in the field. A pilot study was conducted in the Indian city of Chennai to determine the temperature variation in urban microclimates and characterize the thermal ecology of the local transmission setting. Temperatures were measured in a range of probable indoor and outdoor resting habitats of Anopheles stephensi in two urban slum malaria sites. Mean temperatures and daily temperature fluctuations in local transmission sites were compared with standard temperature measures from the local weather station. The biological implications of the different temperatures were explored using temperature-dependent parasite development models to provide estimates of the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum. Mean daily temperatures within the urban transmission sites were generally warmer than those recorded at the local weather station. The main reason was that night-time temperatures were higher (and hence diurnal temperature ranges smaller) in the urban settings. Mean temperatures and temperature variation also differed between specific resting sites within the transmission environments. Most differences were of the order of 1-3°C but were sufficient to lead to important variation in predicted EIPs and hence, variation in estimates of transmission intensity. Standard estimates of environmental temperature derived from local weather stations do not necessarily provide realistic measures of temperatures within actual transmission environments. Even the small differences in mean temperatures or diurnal temperature ranges reported in this study can lead to large variations in key mosquito and/or parasite life history traits that determine transmission intensity. Greater effort should be directed at quantifying adult mosquito resting behaviour and determining the temperatures actually experienced by mosquitoes and parasites in local transmission environments. In the absence of such highly resolved data, the approach used in the current study provides a framework for improved thermal characterization of transmission settings.

Characterizing microclimate in urban malaria transmission settings: a case study from Chennai, India

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Environmental temperature is an important driver of malaria transmission dynamics. Both the parasite and vector are sensitive to mean ambient temperatures and daily temperature variation. To understand transmission ecology, therefore, it is important to determine the range of microclimatic temperatures experienced by malaria vectors in the field. Methods A pilot study was conducted in the Indian city of Chennai to determine the temperature variation in urban microclimates and characterize the thermal ecology of the local transmission setting. Temperatures were measured in a range of probable indoor and outdoor resting habitats of Anopheles stephensi in two urban slum malaria sites. Mean temperatures and daily temperature fluctuations in local transmission sites were compared with standard temperature measures from the local weather station. The biological implications of the different temperatures were explored using temperature-dependent parasite development models to provide estimates of the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum. Results Mean daily temperatures within the urban transmission sites were generally warmer than those recorded at the local weather station. The main reason was that night-time temperatures were higher (and hence diurnal temperature ranges smaller) in the urban settings. Mean temperatures and temperature variation also differed between specific resting sites within the transmission environments. Most differences were of the order of 1-3°C but were sufficient to lead to important variation in predicted EIPs and hence, variation in estimates of transmission intensity. Conclusions Standard estimates of environmental temperature derived from local weather stations do not necessarily provide realistic measures of temperatures within actual transmission environments. Even the small differences in mean temperatures or diurnal temperature ranges reported in this study can lead to large variations in key mosquito and/or parasite life history traits that determine transmission intensity. Greater effort should be directed at quantifying adult mosquito resting behaviour and determining the temperatures actually experienced by mosquitoes and parasites in local transmission environments. In the absence of such highly resolved data, the approach used in the current study provides a framework for improved thermal characterization of transmission settings. PMID:23452620

Inverse correlation between daily outdoor temperature and blood pressure in six US cities.

PubMed

Radin, Jennifer M; Neems, Daniel; Goglia, Ross; Siddiqui, Khan; Steinhubl, Steven R

2018-06-01

This study aims to evaluate the relationship between mean outdoor temperature and mean daily blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR) among six, large, geographically and climatically diverse US cities. We collected BP and HR data from Higi stations, located in a wide range of neighborhood grocery stores and retail pharmacies, from six US cities (Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, Boise, Chicago, and New York City). Outdoor daily temperature data were collected from the National Centers for Environmental Information's database. Pearson's correlation was used to assess the linear relationship between mean daily outdoor temperature and mean daily BP and HR for each city from May 2016 through April 2017. A total of 2 140 626 BP and HR readings were recorded in the six study cities. Mean outdoor temperature was inversely correlated with both mean daily average systolic (r=-0.69, P<0.0001) and diastolic (r=-0.71; P<0.0001) BPs, but not HR (r<0.0001, P=0.48). We also found that temperature change had a larger impact on BP in equatorial climates such as Miami compared with colder and more temperature variable cities like Chicago and Boise. Previous studies have found that BP varies seasonally, but few have looked at the impact of daily temperature on both BP and HR changes. Our study is one of the largest and most climatically diverse populations ever looking at this relationship. Our results suggest that temperature, and perhaps geography, should play a role in tailoring individualized evaluation and treatment for hypertensive diseases.

Temperature modifies the association between particulate air pollution and mortality: A multi-city study in South Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Satbyul Estella; Lim, Youn-Hee; Kim, Ho

2015-08-15

Substantial epidemiologic literature has demonstrated the effects of air pollution and temperature on mortality. However, there is inconsistent evidence regarding the temperature modification effect on acute mortality due to air pollution. Herein, we investigated the effects of temperature on the relationship between air pollution and mortality due to non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory death in seven cities in South Korea. We applied stratified time-series models to the data sets in order to examine whether the effects of particulate matter <10 μm (PM10) on mortality were modified by temperature. The effect of PM10 on daily mortality was first quantified within different ranges of temperatures at each location using a time-series model, and then the estimates were pooled through a random-effects meta-analysis using the maximum likelihood method. From all the data sets, 828,787 non-accidental deaths were registered from 2000-2009. The highest overall risk between PM10 and non-accidental or cardiovascular mortality was observed on extremely hot days (daily mean temperature: >99th percentile) in individuals aged <65 years. In those aged ≥65 years, the highest overall risk between PM10 and non-accidental or cardiovascular mortality was observed on very hot days and not on extremely hot days (daily mean temperature: 95-99th percentile). There were strong harmful effects from PM10 on non-accidental mortality with the highest temperature range (>99th percentile) in men, with a very high temperature range (95-99th percentile) in women. Our findings showed that temperature can affect the relationship between the PM10 levels and cause-specific mortality. Moreover, the differences were apparent after considering the age and sex groups. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Continuous selection pressure to improve temperature acclimation of Tisochrysis lutea

PubMed Central

Grimaud, Ghjuvan; Rumin, Judith; Bougaran, Gaël; Talec, Amélie; Gachelin, Manon; Boutoute, Marc; Pruvost, Eric; Bernard, Olivier; Sciandra, Antoine

2017-01-01

Temperature plays a key role in outdoor industrial cultivation of microalgae. Improving the thermal tolerance of microalgae to both daily and seasonal temperature fluctuations can thus contribute to increase their annual productivity. A long term selection experiment was carried out to increase the thermal niche (temperature range for which the growth is possible) of a neutral lipid overproducing strain of Tisochrysis lutea. The experimental protocol consisted to submit cells to daily variations of temperature for 7 months. The stress intensity, defined as the amplitude of daily temperature variations, was progressively increased along successive selection cycles. Only the amplitude of the temperature variations were increased, the daily average temperature was kept constant along the experiment. This protocol resulted in a thermal niche increase by 3°C (+16.5%), with an enhancement by 9% of the maximal growth rate. The selection process also affected T. lutea physiology, with a feature generally observed for ‘cold-temperature’ type of adaptation. The amount of total and neutral lipids was significantly increased, and eventually productivity was increased by 34%. This seven month selection experiment, carried out in a highly dynamic environment, challenges some of the hypotheses classically advanced to explain the temperature response of microalgae. PMID:28902878

On nonstationarity and antipersistency in global temperature series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KäRner, O.

2002-10-01

Statistical analysis is carried out for satellite-based global daily tropospheric and stratospheric temperature anomaly and solar irradiance data sets. Behavior of the series appears to be nonstationary with stationary daily increments. Estimating long-range dependence between the increments reveals a remarkable difference between the two temperature series. Global average tropospheric temperature anomaly behaves similarly to the solar irradiance anomaly. Their daily increments show antipersistency for scales longer than 2 months. The property points at a cumulative negative feedback in the Earth climate system governing the tropospheric variability during the last 22 years. The result emphasizes a dominating role of the solar irradiance variability in variations of the tropospheric temperature and gives no support to the theory of anthropogenic climate change. The global average stratospheric temperature anomaly proceeds like a 1-dim random walk at least up to 11 years, allowing good presentation by means of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for monthly series.

The influence of environment, sex, and innate timing mechanisms on body temperature patterns of free-ranging black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus).

PubMed

Lehmer, Erin M; Bossenbroek, Jonathan M; Van Horne, Beatrice

2003-01-01

Mechanisms that influence body temperature patterns in black-tailed prairie dogs are not well understood. Previous research on both free-ranging and laboratory populations of black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) has suggested that reductions in ambient temperature and food and water deprivation are the primary factors that stimulate torpor in this species. In other species, however, torpor has been shown to be influenced by a multitude of factors, including innate circadian and circannual timing mechanisms, energy status, and reproductive behaviors. Our objective was to clarify the influence of weather, sex, and intrinsic timing mechanisms on the body temperature patterns of free-ranging black-tailed prairie dogs. We monitored body temperatures of eight adult (>1 yr) prairie dogs from November 1999 to June 2000. Prairie dogs showed distinct daily and seasonal body temperature patterns, which reflected changes in ambient temperatures that occurred during these periods. These patterns of daily and seasonal heterothermy suggest that body temperature patterns of black-tailed prairie dogs may be driven by an innate timing mechanism. All prairie dogs entered torpor intermittently throughout winter and spring. Torpor bouts appeared to be influenced by precipitation and reductions in ambient temperature. Our results also suggest that reproductive behaviors and circadian timing may influence torpor in this species.

Statistical Modeling of Daily Stream Temperature for Mitigating Fish Mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldwell, R. J.; Rajagopalan, B.

2011-12-01

Water allocations in the Central Valley Project (CVP) of California require the consideration of short- and long-term needs of many socioeconomic factors including, but not limited to, agriculture, urban use, flood mitigation/control, and environmental concerns. The Endangered Species Act (ESA) ensures that the decision-making process provides sufficient water to limit the impact on protected species, such as salmon, in the Sacramento River Valley. Current decision support tools in the CVP were deemed inadequate by the National Marine Fisheries Service due to the limited temporal resolution of forecasts for monthly stream temperature and fish mortality. Finer scale temporal resolution is necessary to account for the stream temperature variations critical to salmon survival and reproduction. In addition, complementary, long-range tools are needed for monthly and seasonal management of water resources. We will present a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) framework of maximum daily stream temperatures and related attributes, such as: daily stream temperature range, exceedance/non-exceedance of critical threshold temperatures, and the number of hours of exceedance. A suite of predictors that impact stream temperatures are included in the models, including current and prior day values of streamflow, water temperatures of upstream releases from Shasta Dam, air temperature, and precipitation. Monthly models are developed for each stream temperature attribute at the Balls Ferry gauge, an EPA compliance point for meeting temperature criteria. The statistical framework is also coupled with seasonal climate forecasts using a stochastic weather generator to provide ensembles of stream temperature scenarios that can be used for seasonal scale water allocation planning and decisions. Short-term weather forecasts can also be used in the framework to provide near-term scenarios useful for making water release decisions on a daily basis. The framework can be easily translated to other locations and is intended to be a complement to the physical stream temperature modeling efforts that are underway on the river.

Detection of the relationship between peak temperature and extreme precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Y.; Liu, J.; Zhiyong, Y.

2017-12-01

Under the background of climate change and human activities, the characteristics and pattern of precipitation have changed significantly in many regions. As the political and cultural center of China, the structure and character of precipitation in Jingjinji District has varied dramatically in recent years. In this paper, the daily precipitation data throughout the period 1960-2013 are selected for analyzing the spatial-temporal variability of precipitation. The results indicate that the frequency and intensity of precipitation presents an increasing trend. Based on the precipitation data, the maximum, minimum and mean precipitation in different temporal and spatial scales is calculated respectively. The temporal and spatial variation of temperature is obtained by using statistical methods. The relationship between temperature and precipitation in different range is analyzed. The curve relates daily precipitation extremes with local temperatures has a peak structure, increasing at the low-medium range of temperature variations but decreasing at high temperatures. The relationship between extreme precipitation is stronger in downtown than that in suburbs.

Daily and estrous rhythmicity of body temperature in domestic cattle

PubMed Central

Piccione, Giuseppe; Caola, Giovanni; Refinetti, Roberto

2003-01-01

Background Rhythmicity in core body temperature has been extensively studied in humans and laboratory animals but much less in farm animals. Extending the study of rhythmicity of body temperature to farm animals is important not only from a comparative perspective but also from an economic perspective, as greater knowledge of this process can lead to improvements in livestock production practices. In this study in cattle, we investigated the maturation of the daily rhythm of body temperature in newborn calves, characterized the parameters of the daily rhythm in young cows, and studied the oscillation in body temperature associated with the estrous cycle in adult cows. Results We found that the daily rhythm of body temperature is absent at birth but matures fully during the first two months of life. The mature rhythm had a mean level of 38.3°C, a range of excursion of 1.4°C, and was more robust than that of any mammalian species previously studied (90% of maximal robustness). Sexually mature cows also exhibited a robust estrous rhythm of body temperature. An elevation of about 1.3°C was observed every 21 days on the day of estrus. Small seasonal variations in this pattern were observed. Conclusion In conclusion, calves exhibit a very robust daily rhythm of body temperature, although this rhythm is absent at birth and develops during the first two months of life. Adult cows exhibit also 21-day rhythmicity in body temperature reflecting the duration of the estrous cycle. PMID:12882649

Selected meteorological data for an arid site near Beatty, Nye County, Nevada, calendar years 1990 and 1991

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, James L.; Andraski, Brian J.

1995-01-01

Selected meteorological data were collected at a study site adjacent to a low-level radioactive-waste burial facility near Beatty, Nevada, for calendar years 1990 and 1991. Data were collected in support of ongoing studies to estimate the potential for downward movement of radionuclides into the unsaturated sediments beneath waste-burial trenches at the facility. The data include air temperature, relative humidity, vapor pressure, incident solar radiation, windspeed, wind direction, barometric pressure, and precipitation. The data are summarized in tables and graphs.Instrumentation used at the site is discussed. The discussion includes the type, reported accuracy, and mounting height of each sensor.In 1990, the average hourly air temperatures ranged from -16.2 degrees Celsius, in December, to 44.2 degrees Celsius, in July. Hourly averaged relative humidity ranged from 6 percent to more than 90 percent. Hourly vapor pressures ranged from 0.08 to 1.84 kilopascals. Daily maximum incident solar radiation values ranged from 192 to 1,028 watts per square meter. Daily mean windspeed ranged from less than 1 to 8.7 meters per second. Wind direction was primarily from the northwest in fall, winter, and spring and varied from southeast, southwest, or northwest during the summer. Hourly barometric pressures ranged from 99.47 to 103.12 kilopascals. Total precipitation for 1990 was 32.4 millimeters; almost 45 percent was in September.In 1991, the average hourly air temperatures ranged from -9.2 degrees Celsius, in January, to 43.7 degrees Celsius, in July. Hourly averaged relative humidity ranged from 3 percent to more than 95 percent. Hourly vapor pressures ranged from 0.07 to 2.22 kilopascals. Daily maximum incident solar radiation values ranged from 143 to 1,041 watts per square meter. Daily mean windspeed ranged from 1.2 to 8.4 meters per second. Wind direction was primarily from the northwest in fall, winter, and spring and varied from southeast, southwest, or northwest during the summer. Hourly barometric pressures ranged from 99.52 to 103.40 kilopascals. Total precipitation for 1991 was 103.6 millimeters; almost 60 percent was in March.

Influence of climate on malaria transmission depends on daily temperature variation.

PubMed

Paaijmans, Krijn P; Blanford, Simon; Bell, Andrew S; Blanford, Justine I; Read, Andrew F; Thomas, Matthew B

2010-08-24

Malaria transmission is strongly influenced by environmental temperature, but the biological drivers remain poorly quantified. Most studies analyzing malaria-temperature relations, including those investigating malaria risk and the possible impacts of climate change, are based solely on mean temperatures and extrapolate from functions determined under unrealistic laboratory conditions. Here, we present empirical evidence to show that, in addition to mean temperatures, daily fluctuations in temperature affect parasite infection, the rate of parasite development, and the essential elements of mosquito biology that combine to determine malaria transmission intensity. In general, we find that, compared with rates at equivalent constant mean temperatures, temperature fluctuation around low mean temperatures acts to speed up rate processes, whereas fluctuation around high mean temperatures acts to slow processes down. At the extremes (conditions representative of the fringes of malaria transmission, where range expansions or contractions will occur), fluctuation makes transmission possible at lower mean temperatures than currently predicted and can potentially block transmission at higher mean temperatures. If we are to optimize control efforts and develop appropriate adaptation or mitigation strategies for future climates, we need to incorporate into predictive models the effects of daily temperature variation and how that variation is altered by climate change.

Comparative evaluation of human heat stress indices on selected hospital admissions in Sydney, Australia.

PubMed

Goldie, James; Alexander, Lisa; Lewis, Sophie C; Sherwood, Steven

2017-08-01

To find appropriate regression model specifications for counts of the daily hospital admissions of a Sydney cohort and determine which human heat stress indices best improve the models' fit. We built parent models of eight daily counts of admission records using weather station observations, census population estimates and public holiday data. We added heat stress indices; models with lower Akaike Information Criterion scores were judged a better fit. Five of the eight parent models demonstrated adequate fit. Daily maximum Simplified Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (sWBGT) consistently improved fit more than most other indices; temperature and heatwave indices also modelled some health outcomes well. Humidity and heat-humidity indices better fit counts of patients who died following admission. Maximum sWBGT is an ideal measure of heat stress for these types of Sydney hospital admissions. Simple temperature indices are a good fallback where a narrower range of conditions is investigated. Implications for public health: This study confirms the importance of selecting appropriate heat stress indices for modelling. Epidemiologists projecting Sydney hospital admissions should use maximum sWBGT as a common measure of heat stress. Health organisations interested in short-range forecasting may prefer simple temperature indices. © 2017 The Authors.

Comparing daily temperature averaging methods: the role of surface and atmosphere variables in determining spatial and seasonal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhardt, Jase; Carleton, Andrew M.

2018-05-01

The two main methods for determining the average daily near-surface air temperature, twice-daily averaging (i.e., [Tmax+Tmin]/2) and hourly averaging (i.e., the average of 24 hourly temperature measurements), typically show differences associated with the asymmetry of the daily temperature curve. To quantify the relative influence of several land surface and atmosphere variables on the two temperature averaging methods, we correlate data for 215 weather stations across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) for the period 1981-2010 with the differences between the two temperature-averaging methods. The variables are land use-land cover (LULC) type, soil moisture, snow cover, cloud cover, atmospheric moisture (i.e., specific humidity, dew point temperature), and precipitation. Multiple linear regression models explain the spatial and monthly variations in the difference between the two temperature-averaging methods. We find statistically significant correlations between both the land surface and atmosphere variables studied with the difference between temperature-averaging methods, especially for the extreme (i.e., summer, winter) seasons (adjusted R2 > 0.50). Models considering stations with certain LULC types, particularly forest and developed land, have adjusted R2 values > 0.70, indicating that both surface and atmosphere variables control the daily temperature curve and its asymmetry. This study improves our understanding of the role of surface and near-surface conditions in modifying thermal climates of the CONUS for a wide range of environments, and their likely importance as anthropogenic forcings—notably LULC changes and greenhouse gas emissions—continues.

Microclimate variables of the ambient environment deliver the actual estimates of the extrinsic incubation period of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum: a study from a malaria-endemic urban setting, Chennai in India.

PubMed

Thomas, Shalu; Ravishankaran, Sangamithra; Justin, N A Johnson Amala; Asokan, Aswin; Kalsingh, T Maria Jusler; Mathai, Manu Thomas; Valecha, Neena; Montgomery, Jacqui; Thomas, Matthew B; Eapen, Alex

2018-05-16

Environmental factors such as temperature, relative humidity and their daily variation influence a range of mosquito life history traits and hence, malaria transmission. The standard way of characterizing environmental factors with meteorological station data need not be the actual microclimates experienced by mosquitoes within local transmission settings. A year-long study was conducted in Chennai, India to characterize local temperature and relative humidity (RH). Data loggers (Hobos) were placed in a range of probable indoor and outdoor resting sites of Anopheles stephensi. Recordings were taken hourly to estimate mean temperature and RH, together with daily temperature range (DTR) and daily relative humidity range. The temperature data were used to explore the predicted variation in extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax between microhabitats and across the year. Mean daily temperatures within the indoor settings were significantly warmer than those recorded outdoors. DTR in indoor environments was observed to be modest and ranged from 2 to 6 °C. Differences in EIP between microhabitats were most notable during the hottest summer months of April-June, with parasite development predicted to be impaired for tiled houses and overhead tanks. Overall, the prevailing warm and stable conditions suggest rapid parasite development rate regardless of where mosquitoes might rest. Taking account of seasonal and local environmental variation, the predicted EIP of P. falciparum varied from a minimum of 9.1 days to a maximum of 15.3 days, while the EIP of P. vivax varied from 8.0 to 24.3 days. This study provides a detailed picture of the actual microclimates experienced by mosquitoes in an urban slum malaria setting. The data indicate differences between microhabitats that could impact mosquito and parasite life history traits. The predicted effects for EIP are often relatively subtle, but variation between minimum and maximum EIPs can play a role in disease transmission, depending on the time of year and where mosquitoes rest. Appropriate characterization of the local microclimate conditions would be the key to fully understand the effects of environment on local transmission ecology.

Estimation of stream temperature in support of fish production modeling under future climates in the Klamath River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.

2012-01-01

Stream temperature estimates under future climatic conditions were needed in support of fish production modeling for evaluation of effects of dam removal in the Klamath River Basin. To allow for the persistence of the Klamath River salmon fishery, an upcoming Secretarial Determination in 2012 will review potential changes in water quality and stream temperature to assess alternative scenarios, including dam removal. Daily stream temperature models were developed by using a regression model approach with simulated net solar radiation, vapor density deficit calculated on the basis of air temperature, and mean daily air temperature. Models were calibrated for 6 streams in the Lower, and 18 streams in the Upper, Klamath Basin by using measured stream temperatures for 1999-2008. The standard error of the y-estimate for the estimation of stream temperature for the 24 streams ranged from 0.36 to 1.64°C, with an average error of 1.12°C for all streams. The regression models were then used with projected air temperatures to estimate future stream temperatures for 2010-99. Although the mean change from the baseline historical period of 1950-99 to the projected future period of 2070-99 is only 1.2°C, it ranges from 3.4°C for the Shasta River to no change for Fall Creek and Trout Creek. Variability is also evident in the future with a mean change in temperature for all streams from the baseline period to the projected period of 2070-99 of only 1°C, while the range in stream temperature change is from 0 to 2.1°C. The baseline period, 1950-99, to which the air temperature projections were corrected, established the starting point for the projected changes in air temperature. The average measured daily air temperature for the calibration period 1999-2008, however, was found to be as much as 2.3°C higher than baseline for some rivers, indicating that warming conditions have already occurred in many areas of the Klamath River Basin, and that the stream temperature projections for the 21st century could be underestimating the actual change.

Stream-temperature patterns of the Muddy Creek basin, Anne Arundel County, Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pluhowski, E.J.

1981-01-01

Using a water-balance equation based on a 4.25-year gaging-station record on North Fork Muddy Creek, the following mean annual values were obtained for the Muddy Creek basin: precipitation, 49.0 inches; evapotranspiration, 28.0 inches; runoff, 18.5 inches; and underflow, 2.5 inches. Average freshwater outflow from the Muddy Creek basin to the Rhode River estuary was 12.2 cfs during the period October 1, 1971, to December 31, 1975. Harmonic equations were used to describe seasonal maximum and minimum stream-temperature patterns at 12 sites in the basin. These equations were fitted to continuous water-temperature data obtained periodically at each site between November 1970 and June 1978. The harmonic equations explain at least 78 percent of the variance in maximum stream temperatures and 81 percent of the variance in minimum temperatures. Standard errors of estimate averaged 2.3C (Celsius) for daily maximum water temperatures and 2.1C for daily minimum temperatures. Mean annual water temperatures developed for a 5.4-year base period ranged from 11.9C at Muddy Creek to 13.1C at Many Fork Branch. The largest variations in stream temperatures were detected at thermograph sites below ponded reaches and where forest coverage was sparse or missing. At most sites the largest variations in daily water temperatures were recorded in April whereas the smallest were in September and October. The low thermal inertia of streams in the Muddy Creek basin tends to amplify the impact of surface energy-exchange processes on short-period stream-temperature patterns. Thus, in response to meteorologic events, wide ranging stream-temperature perturbations of as much as 6C have been documented in the basin. (USGS)

Harmonic analyses of stream temperatures in the Upper Colorado River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steele, T.D.

1985-01-01

Harmonic analyses were made for available daily water-temperature records for 36 measurement sites on major streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin and for 14 measurement sites on streams in the Piceance structural basin. Generally (88 percent of the station years analyzed), more than 80 percent of the annual variability of temperatures of streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin was explained by the simple-harmonic function. Significant trends were determined for 6 of the 26 site records having 8 years or more record. In most cases, these trends resulted from construction and operation of upstream surface-water impoundments occurring during the period of record. Regional analysis of water-temperature characteristics at the 14 streamflow sites in the Piceance structural basin indicated similarities in water-temperature characteristics for a small range of measurement-site elevations. Evaluation of information content of the daily records indicated that less-than-daily measurement intervals should be considered, resulting in substantial savings in measurement and data-processing costs. (USGS)

High-resolution daily gridded datasets of air temperature and wind speed for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brinckmann, S.; Krähenmann, S.; Bissolli, P.

2015-08-01

New high-resolution datasets for near surface daily air temperature (minimum, maximum and mean) and daily mean wind speed for Europe (the CORDEX domain) are provided for the period 2001-2010 for the purpose of regional model validation in the framework of DecReg, a sub-project of the German MiKlip project, which aims to develop decadal climate predictions. The main input data sources are hourly SYNOP observations, partly supplemented by station data from the ECA&D dataset (http://www.ecad.eu). These data are quality tested to eliminate erroneous data and various kinds of inhomogeneities. Grids in a resolution of 0.044° (5 km) are derived by spatial interpolation of these station data into the CORDEX area. For temperature interpolation a modified version of a regression kriging method developed by Krähenmann et al. (2011) is used. At first, predictor fields of altitude, continentality and zonal mean temperature are chosen for a regression applied to monthly station data. The residuals of the monthly regression and the deviations of the daily data from the monthly averages are interpolated using simple kriging in a second and third step. For wind speed a new method based on the concept used for temperature was developed, involving predictor fields of exposure, roughness length, coastal distance and ERA Interim reanalysis wind speed at 850 hPa. Interpolation uncertainty is estimated by means of the kriging variance and regression uncertainties. Furthermore, to assess the quality of the final daily grid data, cross validation is performed. Explained variance ranges from 70 to 90 % for monthly temperature and from 50 to 60 % for monthly wind speed. The resulting RMSE for the final daily grid data amounts to 1-2 °C and 1-1.5 m s-1 (depending on season and parameter) for daily temperature parameters and daily mean wind speed, respectively. The datasets presented in this article are published at http://dx.doi.org/10.5676/DWD_CDC/DECREG0110v1.

Generating daily weather data for ecosystem modelling in the Congo River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petritsch, Richard; Pietsch, Stephan A.

2010-05-01

Daily weather data are an important constraint for diverse applications in ecosystem research. In particular, temperature and precipitation are the main drivers for forest ecosystem productivity. Mechanistic modelling theory heavily relies on daily values for minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, incident solar radiation and vapour pressure deficit. Although the number of climate measurement stations increased during the last centuries, there are still regions with limited climate data. For example, in the WMO database there are only 16 stations located in Gabon with daily weather measurements. Additionally, the available time series are heavily affected by measurement errors or missing values. In the WMO record for Gabon, on average every second day is missing. Monthly means are more robust and may be estimated over larger areas. Therefore, a good alternative is to interpolate monthly mean values using a sparse network of measurement stations, and based on these monthly data generate daily weather data with defined characteristics. The weather generator MarkSim was developed to produce climatological time series for crop modelling in the tropics. It provides daily values for maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and solar radiation. The monthly means can either be derived from the internal climate surfaces or prescribed as additional inputs. We compared the generated outputs observations from three climate stations in Gabon (Lastourville, Moanda and Mouilla) and found that maximum temperature and solar radiation were heavily overestimated during the long dry season. This is due to the internal dependency of the solar radiation estimates to precipitation. With no precipitation a cloudless sky is assumed and thus high incident solar radiation and a large diurnal temperature range. However, in reality it is cloudy in the Congo River Basin during the long dry season. Therefore, we applied a correction factor to solar radiation and temperature range based on the ratio of values on rainy days and days without rain, respectively. For assessing the impact of our correction, we simulated the ecosystem behaviour using the climate data from Lastourville, Moanda and Mouilla with the mechanistic ecosystem model Biome-BGC. Differences in terms of the carbon, nitrogen and water cycle were subsequently analysed and discussed.

Fine-scale environmental specialization of reef-building corals might be limiting reef recovery in the Florida Keys.

PubMed

Kenkel, Carly D; Almanza, Albert T; Matz, Mikhail V

2015-12-01

Despite decades of monitoring global reef decline, we are still largely unable to explain patterns of reef deterioration at local scales, which precludes the development of effective management strategies. Offshore reefs of the Florida Keys, USA, experience milder temperatures and lower nutrient loads in comparison to inshore reefs yet remain considerably more degraded than nearshore patch reefs. A year-long reciprocal transplant experiment of the mustard hill coral (Porites astreoides) involving four source and eight transplant locations reveals that corals adapt and/or acclimatize to their local habitat on a < 10-km scale. Surprisingly, transplantation to putatively similar environmental types (e.g., offshore corals moved to a novel offshore site, or along-shore transplantation) resulted in greater reductions in fitness proxies, such as coral growth, than cross-channel transplantation between inshore and offshore reefs. The only abiotic factor showing significantly greater differences between along-shore sites was daily temperature range extremes (rather than the absolute high or low temperatures reached), providing a possible explanation for this pattern. Offshore-origin corals exhibited significant growth reductions at sites with greater daily temperature ranges, which explained up to 39% of the variation in their mass gain. In contrast, daily temperature range explained at most 9% of growth variation in inshore-origin corals, suggesting that inshore corals are more tolerant of high-frequency temperature fluctuations. Finally, corals incur trade-offs when specializing to their native reef. Across reef locations the coefficient of selection against coral transplants was 0.07 ± 0.02 (mean ± SE). This selection against immigrants could hinder the ability of corals to recolonize devastated reefs, whether through assisted migration efforts or natural recruitment events, providing a unifying explanation for observed patterns of coral decline in this reef system.

Satellite Estimation of Daily Land Surface Water Vapor Pressure Deficit from AMSR- E

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, L. A.; Kimball, J. S.; McDonald, K. C.; Chan, S. K.; Njoku, E. G.; Oechel, W. C.

2007-12-01

Vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is a key variable for monitoring land surface water and energy exchanges, and estimating plant water stress. Multi-frequency day/night brightness temperatures from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS Aqua (AMSR-E) were used to estimate daily minimum and average near surface (2 m) air temperatures across a North American boreal-Arctic transect. A simple method for determining daily mean VPD (Pa) from AMSR-E air temperature retrievals was developed and validated against observations across a regional network of eight study sites ranging from boreal grassland and forest to arctic tundra. The method assumes that the dew point and minimum daily air temperatures tend to equilibrate in areas with low night time temperatures and relatively moist conditions. This assumption was tested by comparing the VPD algorithm results derived from site daily temperature observations against results derived from AMSR-E retrieved temperatures alone. An error analysis was conducted to determine the amount of error introduced in VPD estimates given known levels of error in satellite retrieved temperatures. Results indicate that the assumption generally holds for the high latitude study sites except for arid locations in mid-summer. VPD estimates using the method with AMSR-E retrieved temperatures compare favorably with site observations. The method can be applied to land surface temperature retrievals from any sensor with day and night surface or near-surface thermal measurements and shows potential for inferring near-surface wetness conditions where dense vegetation may hinder surface soil moisture retrievals from low-frequency microwave sensors. This work was carried out at The University of Montana, at San Diego State University, and at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Impact of diurnal temperature range on mortality in a high plateau area in southwest China: A time series analysis.

PubMed

Ding, Zan; Guo, Pi; Xie, Fang; Chu, Huifang; Li, Kun; Pu, Jingbo; Pang, Shaojie; Dong, Hongli; Liu, Yahui; Pi, Fuhua; Zhang, Qingying

2015-09-01

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an important meteorological indicator that reflects weather stability and is associated with global climate change and urbanization. Previous studies have explored the effect of DTR on human health in coastal cities with small daily temperature variations, but we have little evidence for high plateau regions where large DTRs usually occur. Using daily mortality data (2007-2013), we conducted a time-series analysis to assess the effect of DTR on daily mortality in Yuxi, a high plateau city in southwest China. Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate DTR effects on daily mortality, controlling for daily mean temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, day of the week, and seasonal and long-term trends. The cumulative effects of DTR were J-shaped curves for non-accidental, cardiorespiratory and cardiovascular mortality, with a U-shaped curve for respiratory mortality. Risk assessments showed strong monotonic increases in mortality starting at a DTR of approximately 16 °C. The relative risk of non-accidental morality with extreme high DTR at lag 0 and 0-21 days was 1.03 (95% confidence interval: 0.95-1.11) and 1.33 (0.94-1.89), respectively. The risk of mortality with extreme high DTR was greater for males and age <75 years than females and age ≥75 years. The effect of DTR on mortality was non-linear, with high DTR associated with increased mortality. A DTR of 16 °C may be a cut-off point for mortality prognosis and has implications for developing intervention strategies to address high DTR exposure. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Impact of daily mean temperature, cold spells, and heat waves on stroke mortality a multivariable Meta-analysis from 12 counties of Hubei province, China].

PubMed

Zhang, Y Q; Yu, C H; Bao, J Z

2017-04-10

Objective: To assess the acute effects of daily mean temperature, cold spells, and heat waves on stroke mortality in 12 counties across Hubei province, China. Methods: Data related to daily mortality from stroke and meteorology in 12 counties across Hubei province during 2009-2012, were gathered. Distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was first used, to estimate the county-specific associations between daily mean temperature, cold spells, heat waves and stroke mortality. Multivariate Meta-analysis was then applied to pool the community-specific relationships between temperature and stroke mortality (exposure-response relationship) as well as both cold- and- heat-associated risks on mortality at different lag days (lag-response relationship). Results: During 2009-2012, a total population of 6.7 million was included in this study with 42 739 persons died of stroke. An average of 2.7 (from 0.5 to 6.0) stroke deaths occurred daily in each county, with annual average mean temperature as 16.6 ℃ (from 14.7 ℃ to 17.4 ℃) during the study period. An inverse J-shaped association between temperature and stroke mortality was observed at the provincial level. Pooled mortality effect of cold spells showed a 2-3-day delay and lasted about 10 days, while effect of heat waves appeared acute but attenuated within a few days. The mortality risks on cold-spell days ranged from 0.968 to 1.523 in 12 counties at lag 3-14, with pooled effect as 1.180 (95 %CI: 1.043-1.336). The pooled mortality risk (ranged from 0.675 to 2.066) on heat-wave days at lag 0-2 was 1.114 (95 %CI: 1.012-1.227). Conclusions: An inverse J-shaped association between temperature and stroke mortality was observed in Hubei province, China. Both cold spells and heat waves were associated with increased stroke mortality, while different lag patterns were observed in the mortality effects of heat waves and cold spells.

Does size matter? Comparison of body temperature and activity of free-living Arabian oryx (Oryx leucoryx) and the smaller Arabian sand gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa marica) in the Saudi desert.

PubMed

Hetem, Robyn Sheila; Strauss, Willem Maartin; Fick, Linda Gayle; Maloney, Shane Kevin; Meyer, Leith Carl Rodney; Shobrak, Mohammed; Fuller, Andrea; Mitchell, Duncan

2012-04-01

Heterothermy, a variability in body temperature beyond the normal limits of homeothermy, is widely viewed as a key adaptation of arid-adapted ungulates. However, desert ungulates with a small body mass, i.e. a relatively large surface area-to-volume ratio and a small thermal inertia, are theoretically less likely to employ adaptive heterothermy than are larger ungulates. We measured body temperature and activity patterns, using implanted data loggers, in free-ranging Arabian oryx (Oryx leucoryx, ±70 kg) and the smaller Arabian sand gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa marica, ±15 kg) inhabiting the same Arabian desert environment, at the same time. Compared to oryx, sand gazelle had higher mean daily body temperatures (F(1,6) = 47.3, P = 0.0005), higher minimum daily body temperatures (F(1,6) = 42.6, P = 0.0006) and higher maximum daily body temperatures (F(1,6) = 11.0, P = 0.02). Despite these differences, both species responded similarly to changes in environmental conditions. As predicted for adaptive heterothermy, maximum daily body temperature increased (F(1,6) = 84.0, P < 0.0001), minimum daily body temperature decreased (F(1,6) = 92.2, P < 0.0001), and daily body temperature amplitude increased (F(1,6) = 97.6, P < 0.0001) as conditions got progressively hotter and drier. There were no species differences in activity levels, however, both gazelle and oryx showed a biphasic or crepuscular rhythm during the warm wet season but shifted to a more nocturnal rhythm during the hot dry season. Activity was attenuated during the heat of the day at times when both species selected cool microclimates. These two species of Arabian ungulates employ heterothermy, cathemerality and shade seeking very similarly to survive the extreme, arid conditions of Arabian deserts, despite their size difference.

Temperature-dependent resetting of the molecular circadian oscillator in Drosophila

PubMed Central

Goda, Tadahiro; Sharp, Brandi; Wijnen, Herman

2014-01-01

Circadian clocks responsible for daily time keeping in a wide range of organisms synchronize to daily temperature cycles via pathways that remain poorly understood. To address this problem from the perspective of the molecular oscillator, we monitored temperature-dependent resetting of four of its core components in the fruitfly Drosophila melanogaster: the transcripts and proteins for the clock genes period (per) and timeless (tim). The molecular circadian cycle in adult heads exhibited parallel responses to temperature-mediated resetting at the levels of per transcript, tim transcript and TIM protein. Early phase adjustment specific to per transcript rhythms was explained by clock-independent temperature-driven transcription of per. The cold-induced expression of Drosophila per contrasts with the previously reported heat-induced regulation of mammalian Period 2. An altered and more readily re-entrainable temperature-synchronized circadian oscillator that featured temperature-driven per transcript rhythms and phase-shifted TIM and PER protein rhythms was found for flies of the ‘Tim 4’ genotype, which lacked daily tim transcript oscillations but maintained post-transcriptional temperature entrainment of tim expression. The accelerated molecular and behavioural temperature entrainment observed for Tim 4 flies indicates that clock-controlled tim expression constrains the rate of temperature cycle-mediated circadian resetting. PMID:25165772

Reduced diurnal temperature range does not change warming impacts on ecosystem carbon balance of Mediterranean grassland mesocosms

DOE PAGES

Phillips, Claire L.; Gregg, Jillian W.; Wilson, John K.

2011-11-01

Daily minimum temperature (T min) has increased faster than daily maximum temperature (T max) in many parts of the world, leading to decreases in diurnal temperature range (DTR). Projections suggest these trends are likely to continue in many regions, particularly northern latitudes and in arid regions. Despite wide speculation that asymmetric warming has different impacts on plant and ecosystem production than equal-night-and-day warming, there has been little direct comparison of these scenarios. Reduced DTR has also been widely misinterpreted as a result of night-only warming, when in fact T min occurs near dawn, indicating higher morning as well as nightmore » temperatures. We report on the first experiment to examine ecosystem-scale impacts of faster increases in T min than T max, using precise temperature controls to create realistic diurnal temperature profiles with gradual day-night temperature transitions and elevated early morning as well as night temperatures. Studying a constructed grassland ecosystem containing species native to Oregon, USA, we found the ecosystem lost more carbon at elevated than ambient temperatures, but was unaffected by the 3ºC difference in DTR between symmetric warming (constantly ambient +3.5ºC) and asymmetric warming (dawn T min=ambient +5ºC, afternoon T max= ambient +2ºC). Reducing DTR had no apparent effect on photosynthesis, likely because temperatures were most different in the morning and late afternoon when light was low. Respiration was also similar in both warming treatments, because respiration temperature sensitivity was not sufficient to respond to the limited temperature differences between asymmetric and symmetric warming. We concluded that changes in daily mean temperatures, rather than changes in T min/T max, were sufficient for predicting ecosystem carbon fluxes in this reconstructed Mediterranean grassland system.« less

Evaluation of empirical relationships between extreme rainfall and daily maximum temperature in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herath, Sujeewa Malwila; Sarukkalige, Ranjan; Nguyen, Van Thanh Van

2018-01-01

Understanding the relationships between extreme daily and sub-daily rainfall events and their governing factors is important in order to analyse the properties of extreme rainfall events in a changing climate. Atmospheric temperature is one of the dominant climate variables which has a strong relationship with extreme rainfall events. In this study, a temperature-rainfall binning technique is used to evaluate the dependency of extreme rainfall on daily maximum temperature. The Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation was found to describe the relationship between daily maximum temperature and a range of rainfall durations from 6 min up to 24 h for seven Australian weather stations, the stations being located in Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra, Darwin, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney. The analysis shows that the rainfall - temperature scaling varies with location, temperature and rainfall duration. The Darwin Airport station shows a negative scaling relationship, while the other six stations show a positive relationship. To identify the trend in scaling relationship over time the same analysis is conducted using data covering 10 year periods. Results indicate that the dependency of extreme rainfall on temperature also varies with the analysis period. Further, this dependency shows an increasing trend for more extreme short duration rainfall and a decreasing trend for average long duration rainfall events at most stations. Seasonal variations of the scale changing trends were analysed by categorizing the summer and autumn seasons in one group and the winter and spring seasons in another group. Most of 99th percentile of 6 min, 1 h and 24 h rain durations at Perth, Melbourne and Sydney stations show increasing trend for both groups while Adelaide and Darwin show decreasing trend. Furthermore, majority of scaling trend of 50th percentile are decreasing for both groups.

Can brook trout survive climate change in large rivers? If it rains.

PubMed

Merriam, Eric R; Fernandez, Rodrigo; Petty, J Todd; Zegre, Nicolas

2017-12-31

We provide an assessment of thermal characteristics and climate change vulnerability for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) habitats in the upper Shavers Fork sub-watershed, West Virginia. Spatial and temporal (2001-2015) variability in observed summer (6/1-8/31) stream temperatures was quantified in 23 (9 tributary, 14 main-stem) reaches. We developed a mixed effects model to predict site-specific mean daily stream temperature from air temperature and discharge and coupled this model with a hydrologic model to predict future (2016-2100) changes in stream temperature under low (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios. Observed mean daily stream temperature exceeded the 21°C brook trout physiological threshold in all but one main-stem site, and 3 sites exceeded proposed thermal limits for either 63- and 7-day mean stream temperature. We modeled mean daily stream temperature with a high degree of certainty (R 2 =0.93; RMSE=0.76°C). Predicted increases in mean daily stream temperature in main-stem and tributary reaches ranged from 0.2°C (RCP 4.5) to 1.2°C (RCP 8.5). Between 2091 and 2100, the average number of days with mean daily stream temperature>21°C increased within main-stem sites under the RCP 4.5 (0-1.2days) and 8.5 (0-13) scenarios; however, no site is expected to exceed 63- or 7-day thermal limits. During the warmest 10years, ≥5 main-stem sites exceeded the 63- or 7-day thermal tolerance limits under both climate emissions scenarios. Years with the greatest increases in stream temperature were characterized by low mean daily discharge. Main-stem reaches below major tributaries never exceed thermal limits, despite neighboring reaches having among the highest observed and predicted stream temperatures. Persistence of thermal refugia within upper Shavers Fork would enable persistence of metapopulation structure and life history processes. However, this will only be possible if projected increases in discharge are realized and offset expected increases in air temperature. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A regional neural network model for predicting mean daily river water temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; DeWeber, Jefferson Tyrell

2014-01-01

Water temperature is a fundamental property of river habitat and often a key aspect of river resource management, but measurements to characterize thermal regimes are not available for most streams and rivers. As such, we developed an artificial neural network (ANN) ensemble model to predict mean daily water temperature in 197,402 individual stream reaches during the warm season (May–October) throughout the native range of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis in the eastern U.S. We compared four models with different groups of predictors to determine how well water temperature could be predicted by climatic, landform, and land cover attributes, and used the median prediction from an ensemble of 100 ANNs as our final prediction for each model. The final model included air temperature, landform attributes and forested land cover and predicted mean daily water temperatures with moderate accuracy as determined by root mean squared error (RMSE) at 886 training sites with data from 1980 to 2009 (RMSE = 1.91 °C). Based on validation at 96 sites (RMSE = 1.82) and separately for data from 2010 (RMSE = 1.93), a year with relatively warmer conditions, the model was able to generalize to new stream reaches and years. The most important predictors were mean daily air temperature, prior 7 day mean air temperature, and network catchment area according to sensitivity analyses. Forest land cover at both riparian and catchment extents had relatively weak but clear negative effects. Predicted daily water temperature averaged for the month of July matched expected spatial trends with cooler temperatures in headwaters and at higher elevations and latitudes. Our ANN ensemble is unique in predicting daily temperatures throughout a large region, while other regional efforts have predicted at relatively coarse time steps. The model may prove a useful tool for predicting water temperatures in sampled and unsampled rivers under current conditions and future projections of climate and land use changes, thereby providing information that is valuable to management of river ecosystems and biota such as brook trout.

Linkage Between Hourly Precipitation Events and Atmospheric Temperature Changes over China during the Warm Season

PubMed Central

Miao, Chiyuan; Sun, Qiaohong; Borthwick, Alistair G. L.; Duan, Qingyun

2016-01-01

We investigated changes in the temporospatial features of hourly precipitation during the warm season over mainland China. The frequency and amount of hourly precipitation displayed latitudinal zonation, especially for light and moderate precipitation, which showed successive downward change over time in northeastern and southern China. Changes in the precipitation amount resulted mainly from changes in frequency rather than changes in intensity. We also evaluated the linkage between hourly precipitation and temperature variations and found that hourly precipitation extreme was more sensitive to temperature than other categories of precipitation. A strong dependency of hourly precipitation on temperature occurred at temperatures colder than the median daily temperature; in such cases, regression slopes were greater than the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation of 7% per degree Celsius. Regression slopes for 31.6%, 59.8%, 96.9%, and 99.1% of all stations were greater than 7% per degree Celsius for the 75th, 90th, 99th, and 99.9th percentiles for precipitation, respectively. The mean regression slopes within the 99.9th percentile of precipitation were three times the C-C rate. Hourly precipitation showed a strong negative relationship with daily maximum temperature and the diurnal temperature range at most stations, whereas the equivalent correlation for daily minimum temperature was weak. PMID:26931350

A simplified model to predict diurnal water temperature dynamics in a shallow tropical water pool.

PubMed

Paaijmans, Krijn P; Heusinkveld, Bert G; Jacobs, Adrie F G

2008-11-01

Water temperature is a critical regulator in the growth and development of malaria mosquito immatures, as they are poikilothermic. Measuring or estimating the diurnal temperature ranges to which these immatures are exposed is of the utmost importance, as these immatures will develop into adults that can transmit malaria. Recent attempts to predict the daily water temperature dynamics in mosquito breeding sites in Kenya have been successful. However, the developed model may be too complex, as the sophisticated equipment that was used for detailed meteorological observations is not widely distributed in Africa, making it difficult to predict the daily water temperature dynamics on a local scale. Therefore, we compared two energy budget models with earlier made observations of the daily water temperature dynamics in a small, shallow and clear water pool (diameter 0.96 m, depth 0.32 m) in Kenya. This paper describes (1) a complex 1-Dimensional model, and (2) a simplified second model, and (3) shows that both models mimic the water temperature dynamics in the water pool accurately. The latter model has the advantage that it only needs common weather data (air temperature, air humidity, wind speed and cloud cover) to estimate the diurnal temperature dynamics in breeding sites of African malaria mosquitoes.

Current and Projected Heat-Related Morbidity and Mortality in Rhode Island.

PubMed

Kingsley, Samantha L; Eliot, Melissa N; Gold, Julia; Vanderslice, Robert R; Wellenius, Gregory A

2016-04-01

Climate change is expected to cause increases in heat-related mortality, especially among the elderly and very young. However, additional studies are needed to clarify the effects of heat on morbidity across all age groups and across a wider range of temperatures. We aimed to estimate the impact of current and projected future temperatures on morbidity and mortality in Rhode Island. We used Poisson regression models to estimate the association between daily maximum temperature and rates of all-cause and heat-related emergency department (ED) admissions and all-cause mortality. We then used downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5; a standardized set of climate change model simulations) projections to estimate the excess morbidity and mortality that would be observed if this population were exposed to the temperatures projected for 2046-2053 and 2092-2099 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP): RCP 8.5 and 4.5. Between 2005 and 2012, an increase in maximum daily temperature from 75 to 85°F was associated with 1.3% and 23.9% higher rates of all-cause and heat-related ED visits, respectively. The corresponding effect estimate for all-cause mortality from 1999 through 2011 was 4.0%. The association with all-cause ED admissions was strongest for those < 18 or ≥ 65 years of age, whereas the association with heat-related ED admissions was most pronounced among 18- to 64-year-olds. If this Rhode Island population were exposed to temperatures projected under RCP 8.5 for 2092-2099, we estimate that there would be 1.2% (range, 0.6-1.6%) and 24.4% (range, 6.9-41.8%) more all-cause and heat-related ED admissions, respectively, and 1.6% (range, 0.8-2.1%) more deaths annually between April and October. With all other factors held constant, our findings suggest that the current population of Rhode Island would experience substantially higher morbidity and mortality if maximum daily temperatures increase further as projected. Kingsley SL, Eliot MN, Gold J, Vanderslice RR, Wellenius GA. 2016. Current and projected heat-related morbidity and mortality in Rhode Island. Environ Health Perspect 124:460-467; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408826.

Daily temperature records from a mesonet in the foothills of the Canadian Rocky Mountains, 2005-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Wendy H.; Marshall, Shawn J.; Whitehead, Terri L.; Fargey, Shannon E.

2018-03-01

Near-surface air temperatures were monitored from 2005 to 2010 in a mesoscale network of 230 sites in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains in southwestern Alberta, Canada. The monitoring network covers a range of elevations from 890 to 2880 m above sea level and an area of about 18 000 km2, sampling a variety of topographic settings and surface environments with an average spatial density of one station per 78 km2. This paper presents the multiyear temperature dataset from this study, with minimum, maximum, and mean daily temperature data available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.880611. In this paper, we describe the quality control and processing methods used to clean and filter the data and assess its accuracy. Overall data coverage for the study period is 91 %. We introduce a weather-system-dependent gap-filling technique to estimate the missing 9 % of data. Monthly and seasonal distributions of minimum, maximum, and mean daily temperature lapse rates are shown for the region.

Environmental influences on the nesting phenology and productivity of Mississippi Kites (Ictinia mississippiensis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Welch, Brandi C.; Boal, Clint W.; Skipper, Ben R.

2017-01-01

Identifying sources of annual variation in the reproductive success of a species may provide valuable insights into how the species may be affected by future environmental or climatic conditions. We examined annual variation in the nesting phenology, productivity, and apparent nest success of Mississippi Kites (Ictinia mississippiensis), a species common in urban areas in the southern Great Plains, from May through August. We monitored 498 Mississippi Kite nesting attempts in Lubbock, Texas, USA, between 2004 and 2015, from which we modeled daily survival rate as a function of local weather conditions, drought severity, and the state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. We observed significant annual variation in median incubation initiation date (range = May 20 to June 5), the probability of nest success (range = 0.31–0.90), and productivity (range = 0.25–1.00 fledglings per nest). Our models of daily survival rate suggested that higher daily temperatures, severe storm events, extreme drought conditions, and La Niña events negatively influenced nest survival. These results suggest that increasing storm frequency and higher temperatures associated with climate change are likely to decrease the nesting success of Mississippi Kites in the southern Great Plains.

Turtles (Chelodina longicollis) regulate muscle metabolic enzyme activity in response to seasonal variation in body temperature.

PubMed

Seebacher, F; Sparrow, J; Thompson, M B

2004-04-01

Fluctuations in the thermal environment may elicit different responses in animals: migration to climatically different areas, regulation of body temperature, modification of biochemical reaction rates, or assuming a state of dormancy. Many ectothermic reptiles are active over a range of body temperatures that vary seasonally. Here we test the hypothesis that metabolic enzyme activity acclimatises seasonally in freshwater turtles (Chelodina longicollis) in addition to, or instead of, behavioural regulation of body temperatures. We measured body temperatures in free-ranging turtles (n = 3) by radiotelemetry, and we assayed phosphofructokinase (PFK), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), citrate synthase (CS) and cytochrome c oxidase (CCO) activities in early autumn (March, n = 10 turtles), late autumn (May, n = 7) and mid-winter (July, n = 7) over a range of assay temperatures (10 degrees C, 15 degrees C, 20 degrees C, 25 degrees C). Body temperatures were either not different from, or higher than expected from a theoretical null-distribution of a randomly moving animal. Field body temperatures at any season were lower, however, than expected from animals that maximised their sun exposure. Turtles maintained constant PFK, LDH and CCO activities in different months, despite body temperature differences of nearly 13.0 degrees C between March (average daily body temperature = 24.4 degrees C) and July (average = 11.4 degrees C). CS activity did not vary between March and May (average daily body temperature = 20.2 degrees C), but it decreased in July. Thus C. longicollis use a combination of behavioural thermoregulation and biochemical acclimatisation in response to seasonally changing thermal conditions. Ectothermic reptiles were often thought not to acclimatise biochemically, and our results show that behavioural attainment of a preferred body temperature is not mandatory for activity or physiological performance in turtles. Copyright 2004 Springer-Verlag

Daily Mean Temperature and Urolithiasis Presentation in Six Cities in Korea: Time-Series Analysis.

PubMed

Chi, Byung Hoon; Chang, In Ho; Choi, Se Young; Suh, Dong Churl; Chang, Chong Won; Choi, Yun Jung; Lee, Seo Yeon

2017-06-01

Seasonal variation in urinary stone presentation is well described in the literature. However, previous studies have some limitations. To explore overall cumulative exposure-response and the heterogeneity in the relationships between daily meteorological factors and urolithiasis incidence in 6 major Korean cities, we analyzed data on 687,833 urolithiasis patients from 2009 to 2013 for 6 large cities in Korea: Seoul, Incheon, Daejeon, Gwangju, Daegu, and Busan. Using a time-series design and distributing lag nonlinear methods, we estimated the relative risk (RR) of mean daily urolithiasis incidence (MDUI) associated with mean daily meteorological factors, including the cumulative RR for a 20-day period. The estimated location-specific associations were then pooled using multivariate meta-regression models. A positive association was confirmed between MDUI and mean daily temperature (MDT), and a negative association was shown between MDUI and mean daily relative humidity (MDRH) in all cities. The lag effect was within 5 days. The multivariate Cochran Q test for heterogeneity at MDT was 12.35 (P = 0.136), and the related I² statistic accounted for 35.2% of the variability. Additionally, the Cochran Q test for heterogeneity and I² statistic at MDHR were 26.73 (P value = 0.148) and 24.7% of variability in the total group. Association was confirmed between daily temperature, relative humidity and urolithiasis incidence, and the differences in urolithiasis incidence might have been partially attributable to the different frequencies and the ranges in temperature and humidity between cities in Korea. © 2017 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.

Analytical Assessment of the Relationship between 100MWp Large-scale Grid-connected Photovoltaic Plant Performance and Meteorological Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, Jie; Zhu, Qiaoming; Cao, Shijie; You, Yang

2017-05-01

This paper helps in study of the relationship between the photovoltaic power generation of large scale “fishing and PV complementary” grid-tied photovoltaic system and meteorological parameters, with multi-time scale power data from the photovoltaic power station and meteorological data over the same period of a whole year. The result indicates that, the PV power generation has the most significant correlation with global solar irradiation, followed by diurnal temperature range, sunshine hours, daily maximum temperature and daily average temperature. In different months, the maximum monthly average power generation appears in August, which related to the more global solar irradiation and longer sunshine hours in this month. However, the maximum daily average power generation appears in October, this is due to the drop in temperature brings about the improvement of the efficiency of PV panels. Through the contrast of monthly average performance ratio (PR) and monthly average temperature, it is shown that, the larger values of monthly average PR appears in April and October, while it is smaller in summer with higher temperature. The results concluded that temperature has a great influence on the performance ratio of large scale grid-tied PV power system, and it is important to adopt effective measures to decrease the temperature of PV plant properly.

Hydrologic data for the Big Spring basin, Clayton County, Iowa, water year 1991

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kalkhoff, S.J.; Kuzniar, R.L.

1994-01-01

Stream discharge, specific conductance, pH, and water temperature were monitored continuously, and monthly water-quality samples were collected at a site on Roberts Creek and at Big Spring. Nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen concentrations in 27 samples from Roberts Creek at the point where it leaves the study area ranged from 1.8 to 22 mg/L. Herbicide concentrations in 26 samples from the Roberts Creek site ranged from less than 0.10 μg/L (micrograms per liter) to 43 μg/L. Alachlor was detected in 42 percent of the samples; atrazine in 92 percent; and cyanazine and metolachlor in 35 percent of the samples. The total suspended-sediment load discharged in Roberts Creek was about 160,000 tons. At Big Spring, the ground-water discharge point, the daily mean specific conductance ranged from 414 to 788 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius, the daily median pH ranged from 6.7 to 7.1, and the daily mean water temperature ranged from 8.5 to 13.0 degrees Celsius. Concentrations of nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen in 23 samples ranged from 4.2 to 17 mg/L. The total measured suspended-sediment discharged from Big Spring was about 17,000 tons. Alachlor was detected in 26 percent; atrazine in 100 percent; cyanazine in 26 percent, and metolachlor in 9 percent of the samples. The maximum atrazine concentration was 16 μg/L.

Microclimate and nest-site selection in Micronesian Kingfishers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kesler, Dylan C.; Haig, Susan M.

2005-01-01

We studied the relationship between microclimate and nest-site selection in the Pohnpei Micronesian Kingfisher (Todiramphus cinnamominus reichenbachii) which excavates nest cavities from the mudlike nest structures of arboreal termites (Nasutitermes sp.) or termitaria. Mean daily high temperatures at termitaria were cooler and daily low temperatures were warmer than at random sites in the forest. Results also indicate that termitaria provided insulation from temperature extremes, and that temperatures inside termitaria were within the thermoneutral zone of Micronesian Kingfishers more often than those outside. No differences were identified in temperatures at sites where nest termitaria and nonnest termitaria occurred or among the insulation properties of used and unused termitaria. These results suggest that although termitaria provide insulation from thermal extremes and a metabolically less stressful microclimate, king-fishers did not select from among available termitaria based on their thermal properties. Our findings are relevant to conservation efforts for the critically endangered Guam Micronesian Kingfisher (T. c. cinnamominus) which is extinct in the wild and exists only as a captive population. Captive breeding facilities should provide aviaries with daily ambient temperatures ranging from 22.06 A?C to 28.05 A?C to reduce microclimate-associated metabolic stress and to replicate microclimates used by wild Micronesian Kingfishers.

Abiotic correlates of anuran calling phenology: the importance of rain, temperature, and season

Treesearch

Daniel Saenz; Lee A. Fitzgerald; Kristen A. Baum; Richard N. Conner

2006-01-01

We surveyed anuran calls nightly at eight ponds in eastern Texas from 1 January 2001 through 31 December 2002. Air temperatures and daily rainfall also were recorded for each of the sites. Eastern Texas contains a diverse temperate anuran fauna and a climate that provides a range of conditions for anuran reproduction. During our study, we measured air temperatures that...

Riparian forest as a management tool for moderating future thermal conditions of lowland temperate streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kristensen, P. B.; Kristensen, E. A.; Riis, T.; Baisner, A. J.; Larsen, S. E.; Verdonschot, P. F. M.; Baattrup-Pedersen, A.

2013-05-01

Predictions of the future climate infer that stream water temperatures may increase in temperate lowland areas and that streams without riparian forest will be particularly prone to elevated stream water temperature. Planting of riparian forest is a potential mitigation measure to reduce water temperatures for the benefit of stream organisms. However, no studies have yet determined the length of a forested reach required to obtain a significant temperature decrease. To investigate this we measured the temperature in five small Danish lowland streams from June 2010 to July 2011, all showing a sharp transition between an upstream open reach and a downstream forested reach. In all stream reaches we also measured canopy cover and a range of physical variables characterizing the streams reaches. This allowed us to analyse differences in mean daily temperature and amplitude per month among forested and open sections as well as to study annual temperature regimes and the influence of physical conditions on temperature changes. Stream water temperature in the open reaches was affected by heating, and in July we observed an increase in temperature over the entire length of the investigated reaches, reaching temperatures higher than the incipient lethal limit for brown trout. Along the forest reaches a significant decrease in July temperatures was recorded immediately (100 m) when the stream moved into the forested area. In three of our study streams the temperature continued to decrease the longer the stream entered into the forested reach, and the temperature decline did not reach a plateau. The temperature increases along the open reaches were accompanied by stronger daily temperature variation; however, when the streams entered into the forest, the range in daily variation decreased. Multiple regression analysis of the combined effects on stream water temperature of canopy cover, Width/Depth ratio, discharge, current velocity and water temperature revealed that canopy cover and Width/Depth were the two variables responsible for the reduced temperature observed when the streams enter the forest. In consequence, we conclude that even relatively short stretches (100-500 m) of forest alongside streams may combat the negative effects of heating of stream water and that forest planting can be a useful mitigation measure.

Weather, season, and daily stroke admissions in Hong Kong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goggins, William B.; Woo, Jean; Ho, Suzanne; Chan, Emily Y. Y.; Chau, P. H.

2012-09-01

Previous studies examining daily temperature and stroke incidence have given conflicting results. We undertook this retrospective study of all stroke admissions in those aged 35 years old and above to Hong Kong public hospitals from 1999 through 2006 in order to better understand the effects of meteorological conditions on stroke risk in a subtropical setting. We used Poisson Generalized Additive Models with daily hemorrhagic (HS) and ischemic stroke (IS) counts separately as outcomes, and daily mean temperature, humidity, solar radiation, rainfall, air pressure, pollutants, flu consultation rates, day of week, holidays, time trend and seasonality as predictors. Lagged effects of temperature, humidity and pollutants were also considered. A total of 23,457 HS and 107,505 IS admissions were analyzed. Mean daily temperature had a strong, consistent, negative linear association with HS admissions over the range (8.2-31.8°C) observed. A 1°C lower average temperature over the same day and previous 4 days (lags 0-4) being associated with a 2.7% (95% CI: 2.0-3.4%, P < .0.0001) higher admission rate after controlling for other variables. This association was stronger among older subjects and females. Higher lag 0-4 average change in air pressure from previous day was modestly associated with higher HS risk. The association between IS and temperature was weaker and apparent only below 22°C, with a 1°C lower average temperature (lags 0-13) below this threshold being associated with a 1.6% (95% CI:1.0-2.2%, P < 0.0001) higher IS admission rate. Pollutant levels were not associated with HS or IS. Future studies should examine HS and IS risk separately.

Association between diurnal temperature range and respiratory tract infections.

PubMed

Ge, Wen Zhen; Xu, Feng; Zhao, Zhuo Hui; Zhao, Jin Zhuo; Kan, Hai Dong

2013-03-01

This study aimed to assess the association between emergency-room visits for respiratory tract infection (RTI) with diurnal temperature range (DTR), a weather parameter closely associated with urbanization and global climate change. We conducted a semiparametric time-series analysis to estimate the percentage increase in emergency-room visits for RTI associated with changes in DTR after adjustment for daily weather conditions (temperature and relative humidity) and outdoor air pollution. DTR was significantly associated with daily emergency-room visits for RTI. An increase of 1 °C in the current-day (L0) and in the 2-day moving average (L01) DTR corresponded to a 0.94% [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.34%-1.55%] and 2.08% (95% CI, 1.24%-2.93%) increase in emergency-room visits for RTI, respectively. DTR was associated with increased risk of RTI. More studies are needed to understand the impact of DTR on respiratory health. Copyright © 2013 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.

Global climate change: impact of diurnal temperature range on mortality in Guangzhou, China.

PubMed

Yang, Jun; Liu, Hua-Zhang; Ou, Chun-Quan; Lin, Guo-Zhen; Zhou, Qin; Shen, Gi-Chuan; Chen, Ping-Yan; Guo, Yuming

2013-04-01

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an important meteorological indicator associated with global climate change, but little is known about the effects of DTR on mortality. We examined the effects of DTR on cause-/age-/education-specific mortality in Guangzhou, a subtropical city in China during 2003-2010. A quasi-Poisson regression model combined with distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the effects of DTR, after controlling for daily mean temperature, air pollutants, season and day of the week. A 1 °C increase in DTR at lag 0-4 days was associated with a 0.47% (95% confidence interval: 0.01%-0.93%) increase in non-accidental mortality. Stroke mortality was most sensitive to DTR. Female, the elderly and those with low education were more susceptible to DTR than male, the youth and those with high education, respectively. Our findings suggest that vulnerable subpopulations should pay more attention to protect themselves from unstable daily weather. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The variability of atmospheric equivalent temperature for radar altimeter range correction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, W. Timothy; Mock, Donald

1990-01-01

Two sets of data were used to test the validity of the presently used approximation for radar altimeter range correction due to atmospheric water vapor. The approximation includes an assumption of constant atmospheric equivalent temperature. The first data set includes monthly, three-dimensional, gridded temperature and humidity fields over global oceans for a 10-year period, and the second is comprised of daily or semidaily rawinsonde data at 17 island stations for a 7-year period. It is found that the standard method underestimates the variability of the equivalent temperature, and the approximation could introduce errors of 2 cm for monthly means. The equivalent temperature is found to have a strong meridional gradient, and the highest temporal variabilities are found over western boundary currents. The study affirms that the atmospheric water vapor is a good predictor for both the equivalent temperature and the range correction. A relation is proposed to reduce the error.

EM Properties of Magnetic Minerals at RADAR Frequencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stillman, D. E.; Olhoeft, G. R.

2005-01-01

Previous missions to Mars have revealed that Mars surface is magnetic at DC frequency. Does this highly magnetic surface layer attenuate RADAR energy as it does in certain locations on Earth? It has been suggested that the active magnetic mineral on Mars is titanomaghemite and/or titanomagnetite. When titanium is incorporated into a maghemite or magnetite crystal, the Curie temperature can be significantly reduced. Mars has a wide range of daily temperature fluctuations (303K - 143K), which could allow for daily passes through the Curie temperature. Hence, the global dust layer on Mars could experience widely varying magnetic properties as a function of temperature, more specifically being ferromagnetic at night and paramagnetic during the day. Measurements of EM properties of magnetic minerals were made versus frequency and temperature (300K- 180K). Magnetic minerals and Martian analog samples were gathered from a number of different locations on Earth.

[Multi-temporal scale analysis of impacts of extreme high temperature on net carbon uptake in subtropical coniferous plantation.

PubMed

Zhang, Mi; Wen, Xue Fa; Zhang, Lei Ming; Wang, Hui Min; Guo, Yi Wen; Yu, Gui Rui

2018-02-01

Extreme high temperature is one of important extreme weathers that impact forest ecosystem carbon cycle. In this study, applying CO 2 flux and routine meteorological data measured during 2003-2012, we examined the impacts of extreme high temperature and extreme high temperature event on net carbon uptake of subtropical coniferous plantation in Qianyanzhou. Combining with wavelet analysis, we analyzed environmental controls on net carbon uptake at different temporal scales, when the extreme high temperature and extreme high temperature event happened. The results showed that mean daily cumulative NEE decreased by 51% in the days with daily maximum air temperature range between 35 ℃ and 40 ℃, compared with that in the days with the range between 30 ℃ and 34 ℃. The effects of the extreme high temperature and extreme high temperature event on monthly NEE and annual NEE related to the strength and duration of extreme high tempe-rature event. In 2003, when strong extreme high temperature event happened, the sum of monthly cumulative NEE in July and August was only -11.64 g C·m -2 ·(2 month) -1 . The value decreased by 90%, compared with multi-year average value. At the same time, the relative variation of annual NEE reached -6.7%. In July and August, when the extreme high temperature and extreme high temperature event occurred, air temperature (T a ) and vapor press deficit (VPD) were the dominant controller for the daily variation of NEE. The coherency between NEE T a and NEE VPD was 0.97 and 0.95, respectively. At 8-, 16-, and 32-day periods, T a , VPD, soil water content at 5 cm depth (SWC), and precipitation (P) controlled NEE. The coherency between NEE SWC and NEE P was higher than 0.8 at monthly scale. The results indicated that atmospheric water deficit impacted NEE at short temporal scale, when the extreme high temperature and extreme high temperature event occurred, both of atmospheric water deficit and soil drought stress impacted NEE at long temporal scales in this ecosystem.

Changes to Sub-daily Rainfall Patterns in a Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westra, S.; Evans, J. P.; Mehrotra, R.; Sharma, A.

2012-12-01

An algorithm is developed for disaggregating daily rainfall into sub-daily rainfall 'fragments' (continuous high temporal-resolution rainfall sequences whose total depth sums to the daily rainfall amount) under a future, warmer climate. The basis of the algorithm is to re-sample sub-daily fragments from the historical record conditional on the total daily rainfall amount and a range of temperature-based atmospheric predictors. The logic is that as the atmosphere warms, future rainfall patterns will be more reflective of historical rainfall patterns which occurred on warmer days at the same location, or at locations which have an atmospheric temperature profile more representative of expected future atmospheric conditions. It was found that the daily to sub-daily scaling relationship varied significantly by season and by location, with rainfall patterns on warmer seasons or at warmer locations typically exhibiting higher rainfall intensity occurring over shorter periods within a day, compared with cooler seasons and locations. Importantly, by regressing against temperature-based atmospheric covariates, this effect was substantially reduced, suggesting that the approach also may be valid when extrapolating to a future climate. An adjusted method of fragments algorithm was then applied to nine stations around Australia, with the results showing that when holding total daily rainfall constant, the maximum intensity of short duration rainfall increased by a median of about 5% per degree for the maximum 6 minute burst, and 3.5% for the maximum one hour burst, whereas the fraction of the day with no rainfall increased by a median of 1.5%. This highlights that a large proportion of the change to the distribution of rainfall is likely to occur at sub-daily timescales, with significant implications for many hydrological systems.

Permian paleoclimate data from fluid inclusions in halite

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benison, K.C.; Goldstein, R.H.

1999-01-01

This study has yielded surface water paleotemperatures from primary fluid inclusions in mid Permian Nippewalla Group halite from western Kansas. A 'cooling nucleation' method is used to generate vapor bubbles in originally all-liquid primary inclusions. Then, surface water paleotemperatures are obtained by measuring temperatures of homogenization to liquid. Homogenization temperatures ranged from 21??C to 50??C and are consistent along individual fluid inclusion assemblages, indicating that the fluid inclusions have not been altered by thermal reequilibration. Homogenization temperatures show a range of up to 26??C from base to top of individual cloudy chevron growth bands. Petrographic and fluid inclusion evidence indicate that no significant pressure correction is needed for the homogenization temperature data. We interpret these homogenization temperatures to represent shallow surface water paleotemperatures. The range in temperatures from base to top of single chevron bands may reflect daily temperatures variations. These Permian surface water temperatures fall within the same range as some modern evaporative surface waters, suggesting that this Permian environment may have been relatively similar to its modern counterparts. Shallow surface water temperatures in evaporative settings correspond closely to local air temperatures. Therefore, the Permian surface water temperatures determined in this study may be considered proxies for local Permian air temperatures.

Genetic variation for farrowing rate in pigs in response to change in photoperiod and ambient temperature.

PubMed

Sevillano, C A; Mulder, H A; Rashidi, H; Mathur, P K; Knol, E F

2016-08-01

Seasonal infertility is often observed as anestrus and a lower conception rate resulting in a reduced farrowing rate (FR) during late summer and early autumn. This is often regarded as an effect of heat stress; however, we observed a reduction in the FR of sows even after correcting for ambient temperature in our data. Therefore, we added change in photoperiod in the analysis of FR considering its effect on sow fertility. Change in photoperiod was modeled using the cosine of the day of first insemination within a year. On an average, the FR decreased by 2% during early autumn with decreasing daily photoperiod compared with early summer with almost no change in daily photoperiod. It declined 0.2% per degree Celsius of ambient temperature above 19.2°C. This result is a step forward in disentangling the 2 environmental components responsible for seasonal infertility. Our next aim was to estimate the magnitude of genetic variation in FR in response to change in photoperiod and ambient temperature to explore opportunities for selecting pigs to have a constant FR throughout the year. We used reaction norm models to estimate additive genetic variation in response to change in photoperiod and ambient temperature. The results revealed a larger genetic variation at stressful environments when daily photoperiod decreased and ambient temperatures increased above 19.2°C compared with neutral environments. Genetic correlations between stressful environments and nonstressful environments ranged from 0.90 (±0.03) to 0.46 (±0.13) depending on the severity of the stress, indicating changes in expression of FR depending on the environment. The genetic correlation between responses of pigs to changes in photoperiod and to those in ambient temperature were positive, indicating that pigs tolerant to decreasing daily photoperiod are also tolerant to high ambient temperatures. Therefore, selection for tolerance to decreasing daily photoperiod should also increase tolerance to high ambient temperatures or vice versa.

Variability in range cow mineral use is associated with season and daily high temperature in Northern Great Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Accurate assessment of mineral nutrition in range cattle is complicated by seasonal changes in diet mineral concentrations, shifting requirements and a lack of knowledge of seasonal mineral intake variability. This study was designed to evaluate variation in herd mineral intake, and individual cow m...

Documentation of meteorological data from the coniferous forest biome primary station in Oregon.

Treesearch

R.H. Waring; H.R. Holbo; R.P. Bueb; R.L. Fredriksen

1978-01-01

As part of the International Biological Program, a primary meteorological station was installed in the west-central Cascade Range of Oregon. Short-wave solar radiation, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, windspeed, and precipitation are recorded continuously. Climatic data are summarized in a daily record available from May 11, 1972, to date. This report details...

Association between temperature and maternal stress during pregnancy.

PubMed

Lin, Yanfen; Hu, Wenjing; Xu, Jian; Luo, Zhongcheng; Ye, Xiaofang; Yan, Chonghuai; Liu, Zhiwei; Tong, Shilu

2017-10-01

Maternal psychological stress during pregnancy has essentially been conceptualized as a teratogen. However, little is known about the effect of temperature on maternal stress during pregnancy. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between temperature and maternal stress during pregnancy. In 2010, a total of 1931 eligible pregnant women were enrolled across Shanghai from four prenatal-care clinics during their mid-to-late pregnancy. Maternal life-event stress and emotional stress levels during pregnancy were assessed by the "Life Event Scale for Pregnant Women" (LESPW) and "Symptom Checklist-90-Revised Scale" (SCL-90-R), respectively. Exposure to ambient temperature was evaluated based on daily regional average in different moving average and lag days. The generalized estimating equations were used to evaluate the relationship between daily average temperature/temperature difference and maternal stress. After adjusting for relevant confounders, an U-shaped relationship was observed between daily average temperature and maternal Global-Severity-Index (GSI) of the SCL-90-R. Cumulative exposures to extremely low temperatures (< P5, 1.4-10.5℃, lag 0-1 days, 0-2 days and 0-5 days) and extremely high temperatures (≥ P95, 31.2-34.1℃, lag 0-1 days and 0-2 days), and acute exposures to extremely low (lag day 0, 1, 2 and 3) and high (lag day 0, 1) temperatures, all induced higher risks of high GSI (the highest tertile), compared to the risk induced by exposed to an optimal temperature range (20-25℃) (P< 0.05). Increased temperature difference was associated with high maternal GSI (P< 0.05). However, non-significant associations were observed between daily average temperatures/temperature differences and maternal log-transferred LESPW scores. Cumulative and acute exposures to extremely low/high temperatures may both induce emotional stress during pregnancy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ambient temperature enhanced acute cardiovascular-respiratory mortality effects of PM2.5 in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Li, Yi; Ma, Zhiqiang; Zheng, Canjun; Shang, Yu

2015-12-01

Studies have shown that temperature could modify the effect of ambient fine particles on mortality risk. In assessing air pollution effects, temperature is usually considered as a confounder. However, ambient temperature can alter people's physiological response to air pollution and might "modify" the impact of air pollution on health outcomes. This study investigated the interaction between daily PM2.5 and daily mean temperature in Beijing, China, using data for the period 2005-2009. Bivariate PM2.5-temperature response surfaces and temperature-stratified generalized additive model (GAM) were applied to study the effect of PM2.5 on cardiovascular, respiratory mortality, and total non-accidental mortality across different temperature levels. We found that low temperature could significantly enhance the effect of PM2.5 on cardiovascular mortality. For an increase of 10 μg/m(3) in PM2.5 concentration in the lowest temperature range (-9.7∼2.6 °C), the relative risk (RR) of cardiovascular mortality increased 1.27 % (95 % CI 0.38∼2.17 %), which was higher than that of the whole temperature range (0.59 %, 95 % CI 0.22-1.16 %). The largest effect of PM2.5 on respiratory mortality appeared in the high temperature range. For an increase of 10 μg/m(3) in PM2.5 concentration, RR of respiratory mortality increased 1.70 % (95 % CI 0.92∼3.33 %) in the highest level (23.50∼31.80 °C). For the total non-accidental mortality, significant associations appeared only in low temperature levels (-9.7∼2.6 °C): for an increase of 10 μg/m(3) in current day PM2.5 concentration, RR increased 1.27 % (95 % CI 0.46∼2.00 %) in the lowest temperature level. No lag effect was observed. The results suggest that in air pollution mortality time series studies, the possibility of an interaction between air pollution and temperature should be considered.

Ambient temperature enhanced acute cardiovascular-respiratory mortality effects of PM2.5 in Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yi; Ma, Zhiqiang; Zheng, Canjun; Shang, Yu

2015-12-01

Studies have shown that temperature could modify the effect of ambient fine particles on mortality risk. In assessing air pollution effects, temperature is usually considered as a confounder. However, ambient temperature can alter people's physiological response to air pollution and might "modify" the impact of air pollution on health outcomes. This study investigated the interaction between daily PM2.5 and daily mean temperature in Beijing, China, using data for the period 2005-2009. Bivariate PM2.5-temperature response surfaces and temperature-stratified generalized additive model (GAM) were applied to study the effect of PM2.5 on cardiovascular, respiratory mortality, and total non-accidental mortality across different temperature levels. We found that low temperature could significantly enhance the effect of PM2.5 on cardiovascular mortality. For an increase of 10 μg/m3 in PM2.5 concentration in the lowest temperature range (-9.7˜2.6 °C), the relative risk (RR) of cardiovascular mortality increased 1.27 % (95 % CI 0.38˜2.17 %), which was higher than that of the whole temperature range (0.59 %, 95 % CI 0.22-1.16 %). The largest effect of PM2.5 on respiratory mortality appeared in the high temperature range. For an increase of 10 μg/m3 in PM2.5 concentration, RR of respiratory mortality increased 1.70 % (95 % CI 0.92˜3.33 %) in the highest level (23.50˜31.80 °C). For the total non-accidental mortality, significant associations appeared only in low temperature levels (-9.7˜2.6 °C): for an increase of 10 μg/m3 in current day PM2.5 concentration, RR increased 1.27 % (95 % CI 0.46˜2.00 %) in the lowest temperature level. No lag effect was observed. The results suggest that in air pollution mortality time series studies, the possibility of an interaction between air pollution and temperature should be considered.

The impact of sustained hot weather on risk of acute work-related injury in Melbourne, Australia.

PubMed

McInnes, Judith Anne; MacFarlane, Ewan M; Sim, Malcolm R; Smith, Peter

2018-02-01

It has been reported that weather-related high ambient temperature is associated with an increased risk of work-related injury. Understanding this relationship is important because work-related injuries are a major public health problem, and because projected climate changes will potentially expose workers to hot days, including consecutive hot days, more often. The aim of this study was to quantify the impact of exposure to sustained periods of hot weather on work-related injury risk for workers in Melbourne, Australia. A time-stratified case crossover study design was utilised to examine the association between two and three consecutive days and two and three consecutive nights of hot weather and the risk of work-related injury, using definitions of hot weather ranging from the 60th to the 95th percentile of daily maximum and minimum temperatures for the Melbourne metropolitan area, 2002-2012. Workers' compensation claim data was used to identify cases of acute work-related injury. Overall, two and three consecutive days of hot weather were associated with an increased risk of injury, with this effect becoming apparent at a daily maximum temperature of 27.6 °C (70th percentile). Three consecutive days of high but not extreme temperatures were associated with the strongest effect, with a 15% increased risk of injury (odds ratio 1.15, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.30) observed when daily maximum temperature was ≥33.3 °C (90th percentile) for three consecutive days, compared to when it was not. At a threshold of 35.5 °C (95th percentile), there was no significant association between temperature and injury for either two or three consecutive days of heat. These findings suggest that warnings to minimise harm to workers from hot weather should be given, and prevention protocol initiated, when consecutive warm days of temperatures lower than extreme heat temperatures are forecast, and well before the upper ranges of ambient daytime temperatures are reached.

The impact of sustained hot weather on risk of acute work-related injury in Melbourne, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McInnes, Judith Anne; MacFarlane, Ewan M.; Sim, Malcolm R.; Smith, Peter

2018-02-01

It has been reported that weather-related high ambient temperature is associated with an increased risk of work-related injury. Understanding this relationship is important because work-related injuries are a major public health problem, and because projected climate changes will potentially expose workers to hot days, including consecutive hot days, more often. The aim of this study was to quantify the impact of exposure to sustained periods of hot weather on work-related injury risk for workers in Melbourne, Australia. A time-stratified case crossover study design was utilised to examine the association between two and three consecutive days and two and three consecutive nights of hot weather and the risk of work-related injury, using definitions of hot weather ranging from the 60th to the 95th percentile of daily maximum and minimum temperatures for the Melbourne metropolitan area, 2002-2012. Workers' compensation claim data was used to identify cases of acute work-related injury. Overall, two and three consecutive days of hot weather were associated with an increased risk of injury, with this effect becoming apparent at a daily maximum temperature of 27.6 °C (70th percentile). Three consecutive days of high but not extreme temperatures were associated with the strongest effect, with a 15% increased risk of injury (odds ratio 1.15, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.30) observed when daily maximum temperature was ≥33.3 °C (90th percentile) for three consecutive days, compared to when it was not. At a threshold of 35.5 °C (95th percentile), there was no significant association between temperature and injury for either two or three consecutive days of heat. These findings suggest that warnings to minimise harm to workers from hot weather should be given, and prevention protocol initiated, when consecutive warm days of temperatures lower than extreme heat temperatures are forecast, and well before the upper ranges of ambient daytime temperatures are reached.

Population Dynamics of Aphids on Cereals: Digging in the Time-Series Data to Reveal Population Regulation Caused by Temperature

PubMed Central

Brabec, Marek; Honěk, Alois; Pekár, Stano; Martinková, Zdenka

2014-01-01

Aphid populations show periodic fluctuations and many causes are attributed to their dynamic. We investigated the regulation by temperature of the aphid populations composed of Metopolophium dirhodum, Sitobion avenae, and Rhopalosiphum padi on winter wheat using a 24 years long time series data. We computed the sum of daily temperatures above 5°C, the threshold temperature for aphid development, and the sum of daily temperatures within the [0(threshold for wheat development),5] °C interval. Applying Generalised Additive Model framework we tested influences of temperature history expressed via degree days before the start of the aphid immigration on the length of their occurrence. We aimed to estimate the magnitude and direction of this influence, and how far to the past before the start of the aphid season the temperature effect goes and then identify processes responsible for the effect. We fitted four models that differed in the way of correcting for abundance in the previous year and in specification of temperature effects. Abundance in the previous year did not affect the length of period of aphid population growth on wheat. The temperature effect on the period length increased up to 123 days before the start of the current season, i.e. when wheat completed vernalization. Increased sum of daily temperatures above 5°C and the sum of daily temperatures within the [0,5] °C interval both shortened the length of period of aphid population growth. Stronger effect of the latter suggests that wheat can escape from aphid attacks if during winter temperatures range from 0 to 5°C. The temperature influence was not homogeneous in time. The strongest effect of past temperature was about 50 to 80 and 90 to 110 days before the beginning of the current aphid season indicating important role of termination of aphid egg dormancy and egg hatching. PMID:25184219

Trends in extreme daily temperatures and humidex index in the United Arab Emirates over 1948-2014.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, H. W.; Ouarda, T.

2015-12-01

This study deals with the analysis of the characteristics of extreme temperature events in the Middle East, using NCEP reanalysis gridded data, for the summer (May-October) and winter (November-April) seasons. Trends in the occurrences of three types of heat spells during 1948-2014 are studied by both Linear Regression (LR) and Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Changes in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) are also investigated. To better understand the effects of heat spells on public health, the Humidex, a combination index of ambient temperature and relative humidity, is also used. Using percentile threshold, temperature (Humidex) Type-A and Type-B heat spells are defined respectively by daily maximum and minimum temperature (Humidex). Type-C heat spells are defined as the joint occurrence of Type-A and Type-B heat spells at the same time. In the Middle East, it is found that no coherent trend in temperature Type-A heat spells is observed. However, the occurrences of temperature Type-B and C heat spells have consistently increased since 1948. For Humidex heat spells, coherently increased activities of all three types of heat spells are observed in the area. During the summer, the magnitude of the positive trends in Humidex heat spells are generally stronger than temperature heat spells. More than half of the locations in the area show significantly negative DTR trends in the summer, but the trends vary according to the region in the winter. Annual mean temperature has increased an average by 0.5°C, but it is mainly associated with the daily minimum temperature which has warmed up by 0.84°C.Daily maximum temperature showed no significant trends. The warming is hence stronger in minimum temperatures than in maximum temperatures resulting in a decrease in DTR by 0.16 °C per decade. This study indicates hence that the UAE has not become hotter, but it has become less cold during 1948 to 2014.

Association between high temperature and mortality in metropolitan areas of four cities in various climatic zones in China: a time-series study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Numerous studies have reported on the associations between ambient temperatures and mortality. However, few multi-city studies have been conducted in developing countries including China. This study aimed to examine the association between high temperature and mortality outcomes in four cities with different climatic characteristics in China to identify the most vulnerable population, detect the threshold temperatures, and provide scientific evidence for public health policy implementations to respond to challenges from extreme heat. Methods A semi-parametric generalized additive model (GAM) with a Poisson distribution was used to analyze the impacts of the daily maximum temperature over the threshold on mortality after controlling for covariates including time trends, day of the week (DOW), humidity, daily temperature range, and outdoor air pollution. Results The temperature thresholds for all-cause mortality were 29°C, 35°C, 33°C and 34°C for Harbin, Nanjing, Shenzhen and Chongqing, respectively. After adjusting for potential confounders including air pollution, strong associations between daily maximum temperature and daily mortality from all-cause, cardiovascular, endocrine and metabolic outcomes, and particularly diabetes, were observed in different geographical cities, with increases of 3.2-5.5%, 4.6-7.5% and 12.5-31.9% (with 14.7-29.2% in diabetes), respectively, with each 1°C increment in the daily maximum temperature over the threshold. A stronger temperature-associated mortality was detected in females compared to males. Additionally, both the population over 55 years and younger adults aged 30 to 54 years reported significant heat-mortality associations. Conclusions Extreme heat is becoming a huge threat to public health and human welfare due to the strong temperature-mortality associations in China. Climate change with increasing temperatures may make the situation worse. Relevant public health strategies and an early extreme weather and health warning system should be developed and improved at an early stage to prevent and reduce the health risks due to extreme weather and climate change in China, given its huge population, diverse geographic distribution and unbalanced socioeconomic status with various climatic characteristics. PMID:25103276

Association between high temperature and mortality in metropolitan areas of four cities in various climatic zones in China: a time-series study.

PubMed

Li, Yonghong; Cheng, Yibin; Cui, Guoquan; Peng, Chaoqiong; Xu, Yan; Wang, Yulin; Liu, Yingchun; Liu, Jingyi; Li, Chengcheng; Wu, Zhen; Bi, Peng; Jin, Yinlong

2014-08-07

Numerous studies have reported on the associations between ambient temperatures and mortality. However, few multi-city studies have been conducted in developing countries including China. This study aimed to examine the association between high temperature and mortality outcomes in four cities with different climatic characteristics in China to identify the most vulnerable population, detect the threshold temperatures, and provide scientific evidence for public health policy implementations to respond to challenges from extreme heat. A semi-parametric generalized additive model (GAM) with a Poisson distribution was used to analyze the impacts of the daily maximum temperature over the threshold on mortality after controlling for covariates including time trends, day of the week (DOW), humidity, daily temperature range, and outdoor air pollution. The temperature thresholds for all-cause mortality were 29°C, 35°C, 33°C and 34°C for Harbin, Nanjing, Shenzhen and Chongqing, respectively. After adjusting for potential confounders including air pollution, strong associations between daily maximum temperature and daily mortality from all-cause, cardiovascular, endocrine and metabolic outcomes, and particularly diabetes, were observed in different geographical cities, with increases of 3.2-5.5%, 4.6-7.5% and 12.5-31.9% (with 14.7-29.2% in diabetes), respectively, with each 1°C increment in the daily maximum temperature over the threshold. A stronger temperature-associated mortality was detected in females compared to males. Additionally, both the population over 55 years and younger adults aged 30 to 54 years reported significant heat-mortality associations. Extreme heat is becoming a huge threat to public health and human welfare due to the strong temperature-mortality associations in China. Climate change with increasing temperatures may make the situation worse. Relevant public health strategies and an early extreme weather and health warning system should be developed and improved at an early stage to prevent and reduce the health risks due to extreme weather and climate change in China, given its huge population, diverse geographic distribution and unbalanced socioeconomic status with various climatic characteristics.

Gastric evacuation rate, index of fullness, and daily ration of Lake Michigan slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus) and deepwater sculpin (Myoxocephalus thompsonii)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mychek-Londer, Justin G.; Bunnell, David B.

2013-01-01

Accurate estimates of fish consumption are required to understand trophic interactions and facilitate ecosystem-based fishery management. Despite their importance within the food-web, no method currently exists to estimate daily consumption for Great Lakes slimy (Cottus cognatus) and deepwater sculpin (Myoxocephalus thompsonii). We conducted experiments to estimate gastric evacuation (GEVAC) and collected field data from Lake Michigan to estimate index of fullness [(g prey/g fish weight)100%) to determine daily ration for water temperatures ranging 2–5 °C, coinciding with the winter and early spring season. Exponential GEVAC rates equaled 0.0115/h for slimy sculpin and 0.0147/h for deepwater sculpin, and did not vary between 2.7 °C and 5.1 °C for either species or between prey types (Mysis relicta and fish eggs) for slimy sculpin. Index of fullness varied with fish size, and averaged 1.93% and 1.85% for slimy and deepwater sculpins, respectively. Maximum index of fullness was generally higher (except for the smallest sizes) for both species in 2009–2010 than in 1976 despite reductions in a primary prey, Diporeia spp. Predictive daily ration equations were derived as a function of fish dry weight. Estimates of daily consumption ranged from 0.2 to 0.8% of their body weight, which was within the low range of estimates from other species at comparably low water temperatures. These results provide a tool to estimate the consumptive demand of sculpins which will improve our understanding of benthic offshore food webs and aid in management and restoration of these native species in the Great Lakes.

High-resolution daily gridded data sets of air temperature and wind speed for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brinckmann, Sven; Krähenmann, Stefan; Bissolli, Peter

2016-10-01

New high-resolution data sets for near-surface daily air temperature (minimum, maximum and mean) and daily mean wind speed for Europe (the CORDEX domain) are provided for the period 2001-2010 for the purpose of regional model validation in the framework of DecReg, a sub-project of the German MiKlip project, which aims to develop decadal climate predictions. The main input data sources are SYNOP observations, partly supplemented by station data from the ECA&D data set (http://www.ecad.eu). These data are quality tested to eliminate erroneous data. By spatial interpolation of these station observations, grid data in a resolution of 0.044° (≈ 5km) on a rotated grid with virtual North Pole at 39.25° N, 162° W are derived. For temperature interpolation a modified version of a regression kriging method developed by Krähenmann et al.(2011) is used. At first, predictor fields of altitude, continentality and zonal mean temperature are used for a regression applied to monthly station data. The residuals of the monthly regression and the deviations of the daily data from the monthly averages are interpolated using simple kriging in a second and third step. For wind speed a new method based on the concept used for temperature was developed, involving predictor fields of exposure, roughness length, coastal distance and ERA-Interim reanalysis wind speed at 850 hPa. Interpolation uncertainty is estimated by means of the kriging variance and regression uncertainties. Furthermore, to assess the quality of the final daily grid data, cross validation is performed. Variance explained by the regression ranges from 70 to 90 % for monthly temperature and from 50 to 60 % for monthly wind speed. The resulting RMSE for the final daily grid data amounts to 1-2 K and 1-1.5 ms-1 (depending on season and parameter) for daily temperature parameters and daily mean wind speed, respectively. The data sets presented in this article are published at doi:10.5676/DWD_CDC/DECREG0110v2.

Current and Projected Heat-Related Morbidity and Mortality in Rhode Island

PubMed Central

Kingsley, Samantha L.; Eliot, Melissa N.; Gold, Julia; Vanderslice, Robert R.; Wellenius, Gregory A.

2015-01-01

Background: Climate change is expected to cause increases in heat-related mortality, especially among the elderly and very young. However, additional studies are needed to clarify the effects of heat on morbidity across all age groups and across a wider range of temperatures. Objectives: We aimed to estimate the impact of current and projected future temperatures on morbidity and mortality in Rhode Island. Methods: We used Poisson regression models to estimate the association between daily maximum temperature and rates of all-cause and heat-related emergency department (ED) admissions and all-cause mortality. We then used downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5; a standardized set of climate change model simulations) projections to estimate the excess morbidity and mortality that would be observed if this population were exposed to the temperatures projected for 2046–2053 and 2092–2099 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP): RCP 8.5 and 4.5. Results: Between 2005 and 2012, an increase in maximum daily temperature from 75 to 85°F was associated with 1.3% and 23.9% higher rates of all-cause and heat-related ED visits, respectively. The corresponding effect estimate for all-cause mortality from 1999 through 2011 was 4.0%. The association with all-cause ED admissions was strongest for those < 18 or ≥ 65 years of age, whereas the association with heat-related ED admissions was most pronounced among 18- to 64-year-olds. If this Rhode Island population were exposed to temperatures projected under RCP 8.5 for 2092–2099, we estimate that there would be 1.2% (range, 0.6–1.6%) and 24.4% (range, 6.9–41.8%) more all-cause and heat-related ED admissions, respectively, and 1.6% (range, 0.8–2.1%) more deaths annually between April and October. Conclusions: With all other factors held constant, our findings suggest that the current population of Rhode Island would experience substantially higher morbidity and mortality if maximum daily temperatures increase further as projected. Citation: Kingsley SL, Eliot MN, Gold J, Vanderslice RR, Wellenius GA. 2016. Current and projected heat-related morbidity and mortality in Rhode Island. Environ Health Perspect 124:460–467; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408826 PMID:26251954

Daily mean temperature estimate at the US SUFRAD stations as an average of the maximum and minimum temperatures

DOE PAGES

Chylek, Petr; Augustine, John A.; Klett, James D.; ...

2017-09-30

At thousands of stations worldwide, the mean daily surface air temperature is estimated as a mean of the daily maximum (T max) and minimum (T min) temperatures. In this paper, we use the NOAA Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) of seven US stations with surface air temperature recorded each minute to assess the accuracy of the mean daily temperature estimate as an average of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures and to investigate how the accuracy of the estimate increases with an increasing number of daily temperature observations. We find the average difference between the estimate based on an averagemore » of the maximum and minimum temperatures and the average of 1440 1-min daily observations to be - 0.05 ± 1.56 °C, based on analyses of a sample of 238 days of temperature observations. Considering determination of the daily mean temperature based on 3, 4, 6, 12, or 24 daily temperature observations, we find that 2, 4, or 6 daily observations do not reduce significantly the uncertainty of the daily mean temperature. The bias reduction in a statistically significant manner (95% confidence level) occurs only with 12 or 24 daily observations. The daily mean temperature determination based on 24 hourly observations reduces the sample daily temperature uncertainty to - 0.01 ± 0.20 °C. Finally, estimating the parameters of population of all SURFRAD observations, the 95% confidence intervals based on 24 hourly measurements is from - 0.025 to 0.004 °C, compared to a confidence interval from - 0.15 to 0.05 °C based on the mean of T max and T min.« less

Daily mean temperature estimate at the US SUFRAD stations as an average of the maximum and minimum temperatures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chylek, Petr; Augustine, John A.; Klett, James D.

At thousands of stations worldwide, the mean daily surface air temperature is estimated as a mean of the daily maximum (T max) and minimum (T min) temperatures. In this paper, we use the NOAA Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) of seven US stations with surface air temperature recorded each minute to assess the accuracy of the mean daily temperature estimate as an average of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures and to investigate how the accuracy of the estimate increases with an increasing number of daily temperature observations. We find the average difference between the estimate based on an averagemore » of the maximum and minimum temperatures and the average of 1440 1-min daily observations to be - 0.05 ± 1.56 °C, based on analyses of a sample of 238 days of temperature observations. Considering determination of the daily mean temperature based on 3, 4, 6, 12, or 24 daily temperature observations, we find that 2, 4, or 6 daily observations do not reduce significantly the uncertainty of the daily mean temperature. The bias reduction in a statistically significant manner (95% confidence level) occurs only with 12 or 24 daily observations. The daily mean temperature determination based on 24 hourly observations reduces the sample daily temperature uncertainty to - 0.01 ± 0.20 °C. Finally, estimating the parameters of population of all SURFRAD observations, the 95% confidence intervals based on 24 hourly measurements is from - 0.025 to 0.004 °C, compared to a confidence interval from - 0.15 to 0.05 °C based on the mean of T max and T min.« less

Life cycle and fecundity analysis of Lutzomyia shannoni (Dyar) (Diptera: Psychodidae).

PubMed

Ferro, C; Cárdenas, E; Corredor, D; Morales, A; Munstermann, L E

1998-01-01

The life cycle of Lutzomyia shannoni (Dyar), was described for laboratory conditions with maximum daily temperature of 27-30 degree C, minimum daily temperatures of 22-27 degree C and relative humidity between 87-99%. Life cycle in each stage was as follows: egg 6-12 days (ave, 8.5 days); first stage larva 5-13 days (ave. 9.6 days); second stage larva 4-13 days (ave. 9.2 days); third stage larva 5-19 days (ave. 11.8 days); fourth stage larva 7-37 days (ave. 19.9 days); pupa 7-32 days (ave. 15.2 days). The life expectancy of adults ranged from 4 to 15 days (ave. 8.6 days). The entire egg to adult period ranged from 36 to 74 days (ave. 54.6 days). On average, each female oviposited 22.7 eggs; the average egg retention per female was 24.3 eggs.

Growing season temperature and precipitation variability and extremes in the U.S. Corn Belt from 1981 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, S.; Shulski, M.

2013-12-01

Climate warming and changes in rainfall patterns and increases in extreme events are resulting in higher risks of crop failures. A greater sense of urgency has been induced to understand the impacts of past climate on crop production in the U.S. As one of the most predominant sources of feed grains, corn is also the main source of U.S. ethanol. In the U.S. Corn Belt, region-scale evaluation on temperature and precipitation variability and extremes during the growing season is not well-documented yet. This study is part of the USDA-funded project 'Useful to Usable: Transforming climate variability and change information for cereal crop producers'. The overall goal of our work is to study the characteristics of average growing season conditions and changes in growing season temperature- and precipitation-based indices that are closely correlated with corn grain yield in the U.S. Corn Belt. The research area is the twelve major Corn Belt states, including IL, IN, IA, KS, MI, MN, MO, NE, OH, SD, ND, and WI. Climate data during 1981-2010 from 132 meteorological stations (elevation ranges from 122 m to 1,202 m) are used in this study, including daily minimum, maximum, and mean temperature, and daily precipitation. From 1981 to 2012, beginning date (BD), ending date (ED), and growing season length (GSL) in the climatological corn growing season are studied. Especially, during the agronomic corn growing season, from Apr to Oct, temperature- and precipitation-based indices are analyzed. The temperature-based indices include: number of days with daily mean temperature below 10°C, number of days with daily mean temperature above 30°C, the sum of growing degree days (GDD) between 10°C to 30°C (GDD10,30, growth range for corn), the sum of growing degree days above 30°C (GDD30+, exposure to harmful warming for corn), the sum of growing degree days between 0°C and 44°C (GDD0,44, survival range limits for corn), the sum of growing degree days between 5°C and 35°C (GDD5,35, growth range limits for corn), and the sum of growing degree days between 20°C and 22°C (GDD20,22, optimal growth range for corn). And the precipitation-based indices include: cumulative precipitation, consecutive dry days, and number of extreme precipitation events in June. As to the decadal trend analysis in climatic factors, Sen's Nonparametric Estimator of Slope and the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test are used. In the U.S. Corn Belt, annual mean Tavg ranges from 5.7°C to 14.7°C, and annual cumulative precipitation ranges from 396 mm to 1,203 mm. According to the decadal trend of annual mean Tavg and annual cumulative precipitation, 30 stations (45%) demonstrate a warm and dry trend, and 28 stations demonstrate a warm and wet trend. In monthly scale, Jun mean Tmin presents the most significantly increasing trend, and no significant decreasing or zero trend is detected from 1981 to 2012. During the climatological corn growing season, BD ranges from 76 to 128 DOY, ED ranges from 276 to 316 DOY, and GSL ranges from 150 to 242 days. From 1981 to 2012, BD is significantly advanced at the rate of 1 to 8 DOY per decade, ED is significantly delayed at the rate of 1 to 5 per decade, and GSL is significantly prolonged at the rate of 1 to 11 days per decade.

Greenland Ice Sheet Melt from MODIS and Associated Atmospheric Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hakkinen, Sirpa; Hall, Dorothy K.; Shuman, Christopher A.; Worthen, Denise L.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.

2014-01-01

Daily June-July melt fraction variations over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) derived from the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) (2000-2013) are associated with atmospheric blocking forming an omega-shape ridge over the GIS at 500hPa height (from NCEPNCAR). Blocking activity with a range of time scales, from synoptic waves breaking poleward ( 5 days) to full-fledged blocks (5 days), brings warm subtropical air masses over the GIS controlling daily surface temperatures and melt. The temperature anomaly of these subtropical air mass intrusions is also important for melting. Based on the largest MODIS melt years (2002 and 2012), the area-average temperature anomaly of 2 standard deviations above the 14-year June-July mean, results in a melt fraction of 40 or more. Summer 2007 had the most blocking days, however atmospheric temperature anomalies were too small to instigate extreme melting.

Circadian rhythms of body temperature and locomotor activity in the antelope ground squirrel, Ammospermophilus leucurus.

PubMed

Refinetti, Roberto; Kenagy, G J

2018-02-01

We studied circadian rhythms of body temperature and locomotor activity in antelope ground squirrels (Ammospermophilus leucurus) under laboratory conditions of a 12L:12D light-dark cycle and in constant darkness. Antelope ground squirrels are diurnally active and, exceptionally among ground squirrels and other closely related members of the squirrel family in general, they do not hibernate. Daily oscillations in body temperature consisted of a rise in temperature during the daytime activity phase of the circadian cycle and a decrease in temperature during the nighttime rest phase. The body temperature rhythms were robust (71% of maximal strength) with a daily range of oscillation of 4.6°C, a daytime mean of 38.7°C, and a nighttime mean of 34.1°C (24-h overall mean 36.4°C). The body temperature rhythm persisted in continuous darkness with a free-running period of 24.2h. This pattern is similar to that of hibernating species of ground squirrels but with a wave form more similar to that of non-hibernating rodents. Daily oscillations in body temperature were correlated with individual bouts of activity, but daytime temperatures were higher than nighttime temperatures even when comparing short episodes of nocturnal activity that were as intense as diurnal activity. This suggests that although muscular thermogenesis associated with locomotor activity can modify the level of body temperature, the circadian rhythm of body temperature is not simply a consequence of the circadian rhythm of activity. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating missing daily temperature extremes in Jaffna, Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thevakaran, A.; Sonnadara, D. U. J.

2018-04-01

The accuracy of reconstructing missing daily temperature extremes in the Jaffna climatological station, situated in the northern part of the dry zone of Sri Lanka, is presented. The adopted method utilizes standard departures of daily maximum and minimum temperature values at four neighbouring stations, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Puttalam and Trincomalee to estimate the standard departures of daily maximum and minimum temperatures at the target station, Jaffna. The daily maximum and minimum temperatures from 1966 to 1980 (15 years) were used to test the validity of the method. The accuracy of the estimation is higher for daily maximum temperature compared to daily minimum temperature. About 95% of the estimated daily maximum temperatures are within ±1.5 °C of the observed values. For daily minimum temperature, the percentage is about 92. By calculating the standard deviation of the difference in estimated and observed values, we have shown that the error in estimating the daily maximum and minimum temperatures is ±0.7 and ±0.9 °C, respectively. To obtain the best accuracy when estimating the missing daily temperature extremes, it is important to include Mannar which is the nearest station to the target station, Jaffna. We conclude from the analysis that the method can be applied successfully to reconstruct the missing daily temperature extremes in Jaffna where no data is available due to frequent disruptions caused by civil unrests and hostilities in the region during the period, 1984 to 2000.

Elephant (Loxodonta africana) home ranges in Sabi Sand Reserve and Kruger National Park: a five-year satellite tracking study.

PubMed

Thomas, Bindi; Holland, John D; Minot, Edward O

2008-01-01

During a five-year GPS satellite tracking study in Sabi Sand Reserve (SSR) and Kruger National Park (KNP) we monitored the daily movements of an elephant cow (Loxodonta africana) from September 2003 to August 2008. The study animal was confirmed to be part of a group of seven elephants therefore her position is representative of the matriarchal group. We found that the study animal did not use habitat randomly and confirmed strong seasonal fidelity to its summer and winter five-year home ranges. The cow's summer home range was in KNP in an area more than four times that of her SSR winter home range. She exhibited clear park habitation with up to three visits per year travelling via a well-defined northern or southern corridor. There was a positive correlation between the daily distance the elephant walked and minimum daily temperature and the elephant was significantly closer to rivers and artificial waterholes than would be expected if it were moving randomly in KNP and SSR. Transect lines established through the home ranges were surveyed to further understand the fine scale of the landscape and vegetation representative of the home ranges.

Body temperature null distributions in reptiles with nonzero heat capacity: seasonal thermoregulation in the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis).

PubMed

Seebacher, Frank; Elsey, Ruth M; Trosclair, Phillip L

2003-01-01

Regulation of body temperature may increase fitness of animals by ensuring that biochemical and physiological processes proceed at an optimal rate. The validity of current methods of testing whether or not thermoregulation in reptiles occurs is often limited to very small species that have near zero heat capacity. The aim of this study was to develop a method that allows estimation of body temperature null distributions of large reptiles and to investigate seasonal thermoregulation in the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis). Continuous body temperature records of wild alligators were obtained from implanted dataloggers in winter (n=7, mass range: 1.6-53.6 kg) and summer (n=7, mass range: 1.9-54.5 kg). Body temperature null distributions were calculated by randomising behavioural postures, thereby randomly altering relative animal surface areas exposed to different avenues of heat transfer. Core body temperatures were predicted by calculations of transient heat transfer by conduction and blood flow. Alligator body temperatures follow regular oscillations during the day. Occasionally, body temperature steadied during the day to fall within a relatively narrow range. Rather than indicating shuttling thermoregulation, however, this pattern could be predicted from random movements. Average daily body temperature increases with body mass in winter but not in summer. Daily amplitudes of body temperature decrease with increasing body mass in summer but not in winter. These patterns result from differential exposure to heat transfer mechanisms at different seasons. In summer, alligators are significantly cooler than predictions for a randomly moving animal, and the reverse is the case in winter. Theoretical predictions show, however, that alligators can be warmer in winter if they maximised their sun exposure. We concluded that alligators may not rely exclusively on regulation of body temperature but that they may also acclimatise biochemically to seasonally changing environmental conditions.

[The short-term effects of air pollution on mortality: the results of the EMECAM project in the city of Pamplona, 1991-95. Estudio Multicéntrico Español sobre la Relación entre la Contaminación Atmosférica y la Mortalidad].

PubMed

Aguinaga Ontoso, I; Guillén Grima, F; Oviedo de Sola, P J; Floristan Floristan, M Y; Laborda Santesteban, M S; Martínez Ramírez, M T; Martínez González, M A

1999-01-01

To assess the short-term impact of air pollution on the daily death rate in the city of Pamplona. Ecological study with a population of 212,000 inhabitants. A time series data analysis is conducted by means of multiple linear regression and Poisson regression, with the daily death rate data, air pollution levels for Particles and SO2, weather parameters of average relative humidity and temperature daily and number of cases weekly of flu for the 1991-1995 period. The average number of deaths daily for non-external causes is that of 4.15 deaths, with a range from zero to 13 deaths. The city of Pamplona has a mean annual temperature of 12.7 degrees C (-2.3 degrees C to 31.6 degrees C) and a relative humidity of 68.5%. In the model, the temperature (with a one-day time lag and a six-day time lag temperature squared) and the humidity (with a one-day time lag) is related to the death rate for all causes. But the death rate for non-external causes is only related in the model with the temperature (one-day time lag, P: 0.035) and five-day time lag with temperature squared (p: 0.028). The timely estimates of the relative particle-related risk show that the highest risk of dying stems from respiratory causes with a relative risk of 1.13. However, none of these relationships is statistically significant. In the case of Sulfur Dioxide, the estimates closely near the zero figure, and none of them is significant. The Temperature has an impact of the death rate for all causes, both external and non-external, and the relative humidity solely has an impact on the death rate for non-external causes. It has not been possible to prove any influence of the daily environmental pollution levels on the daily death rate.

ARIMA representation for daily solar irradiance and surface air temperature time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kärner, Olavi

2009-06-01

Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are used to compare long-range temporal variability of the total solar irradiance (TSI) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and surface air temperature series. The comparison shows that one and the same type of the model is applicable to represent the TSI and air temperature series. In terms of the model type surface air temperature imitates closely that for the TSI. This may mean that currently no other forcing to the climate system is capable to change the random walk type variability established by the varying activity of the rotating Sun. The result should inspire more detailed examination of the dependence of various climate series on short-range fluctuations of TSI.

Developmental models for estimating ecological responses to environmental variability: structural, parametric, and experimental issues.

PubMed

Moore, Julia L; Remais, Justin V

2014-03-01

Developmental models that account for the metabolic effect of temperature variability on poikilotherms, such as degree-day models, have been widely used to study organism emergence, range and development, particularly in agricultural and vector-borne disease contexts. Though simple and easy to use, structural and parametric issues can influence the outputs of such models, often substantially. Because the underlying assumptions and limitations of these models have rarely been considered, this paper reviews the structural, parametric, and experimental issues that arise when using degree-day models, including the implications of particular structural or parametric choices, as well as assumptions that underlie commonly used models. Linear and non-linear developmental functions are compared, as are common methods used to incorporate temperature thresholds and calculate daily degree-days. Substantial differences in predicted emergence time arose when using linear versus non-linear developmental functions to model the emergence time in a model organism. The optimal method for calculating degree-days depends upon where key temperature threshold parameters fall relative to the daily minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as the shape of the daily temperature curve. No method is shown to be universally superior, though one commonly used method, the daily average method, consistently provides accurate results. The sensitivity of model projections to these methodological issues highlights the need to make structural and parametric selections based on a careful consideration of the specific biological response of the organism under study, and the specific temperature conditions of the geographic regions of interest. When degree-day model limitations are considered and model assumptions met, the models can be a powerful tool for studying temperature-dependent development.

Clarifying the role of fire heat and daily temperature fluctuations as germination cues for Mediterranean Basin obligate seeders.

PubMed

Santana, Victor M; Baeza, M Jaime; Blanes, M Carmen

2013-01-01

This study aims to determine the role that both direct effects of fire and subsequent daily temperature fluctuations play in the seed bank dynamics of obligate seeders from the Mediterranean Basin. The short yet high soil temperatures experienced due to passage of fire are conflated with the lower, but longer, temperatures experienced by daily fluctuations which occur after removing vegetation. These germination cues are able to break seed dormancy, but it is difficult to assess their specific level of influence because they occur consecutively after summer fires, just before the flush of germination in the wet season (autumn). By applying experimental fires, seed treatments were imposed that combined fire exposure/non-fire exposure with exposure to microhabitats under a gradient of disturbance (i.e. gaps opened by fire, mechanical brushing and intact vegetation). The seeds used were representative of the main families of obligate seeders (Ulex parviflorus, Cistus albidus and Rosmarinus officinalis). Specifically, an assessment was made of (1) the proportion of seeds killed by fire, (2) seedling emergence under field conditions and (3) seeds which remained ungerminated in soil. For the three species studied, the factors that most influenced seedling emergence and seeds remaining ungerminated were microhabitats with higher temperature fluctuations after fire (gaps opened by fire and brushing treatments). The direct effect of fire decreased the seedling emergence of U. parviflorus and reduced the proportion of seeds of R. officinalis remaining ungerminated. The relevance of depleting vegetation (and subsequent daily temperature fluctuation in summer) suggests that studies focusing on lower temperature thresholds for breaking seed dormancy are required. This fact also supports the hypothesis that the seeding capacity in Mediterranean Basin obligate seeders may have evolved as a response to a wide range of disturbances, and not exclusively to fire.

Retrieving air humidity, global solar radiation, and reference evapotranspiration from daily temperatures: development and validation of new methods for Mexico. Part III: reference evapotranspiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lobit, P.; Gómez Tagle, A.; Bautista, F.; Lhomme, J. P.

2017-07-01

We evaluated two methods to estimate evapotranspiration (ETo) from minimal weather records (daily maximum and minimum temperatures) in Mexico: a modified reduced set FAO-Penman-Monteith method (Allen et al. 1998, Rome, Italy) and the Hargreaves and Samani (Appl Eng Agric 1(2): 96-99, 1985) method. In the reduced set method, the FAO-Penman-Monteith equation was applied with vapor pressure and radiation estimated from temperature data using two new models (see first and second articles in this series): mean temperature as the average of maximum and minimum temperature corrected for a constant bias and constant wind speed. The Hargreaves-Samani method combines two empirical relationships: one between diurnal temperature range ΔT and shortwave radiation Rs, and another one between average temperature and the ratio ETo/Rs: both relationships were evaluated and calibrated for Mexico. After performing a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the impact of different approximations on the estimation of Rs and ETo, several model combinations were tested to predict ETo from daily maximum and minimum temperature alone. The quality of fit of these models was evaluated on 786 weather stations covering most of the territory of Mexico. The best method was found to be a combination of the FAO-Penman-Monteith reduced set equation with the new radiation estimation and vapor pressure model. As an alternative, a recalibration of the Hargreaves-Samani equation is proposed.

Korean 4- to 11-Year-Old Student Conceptions of Heat and Temperature

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paik, Seoung-Hey; Cho, Boo-Kyung; Go, Young-Mi

2007-01-01

The aim of the present study is to shed light on the conceptions that young students have of heat and temperature, concepts that are both important in school science curricula and closely related to daily life. The subjects of the study were students from a rural district in South Korea and they ranged in age from 4 to 11 years. Interviews were…

Introduction to Chronobiology.

PubMed

Kuhlman, Sandra J; Craig, L Michon; Duffy, Jeanne F

2017-10-16

A diverse range of species, from cyanobacteria to humans, evolved endogenous biological clocks that allow for the anticipation of daily variations in light and temperature. The ability to anticipate regular environmental rhythms promotes optimal performance and survival. Herein we present a brief historical timeline of how circadian concepts and terminology have emerged since the early observation of daily leaf movement in plants made by an astronomer in the 1700s. Copyright © 2017 Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press; all rights reserved.

Environmental Influences on Daily Emergency Admissions in Sickle-Cell Disease Patients

PubMed Central

Mekontso Dessap, Armand; Contou, Damien; Dandine-Roulland, Claire; Hemery, François; Habibi, Anoosha; Charles-Nelson, Anaïs; Galacteros, Frederic; Brun-Buisson, Christian; Maitre, Bernard; Katsahian, Sandrine

2014-01-01

Abstract Previous reports have suggested a role for weather conditions and air pollution on the variability of sickle cell disease (SCD) severity, but large-scale comprehensive epidemiological studies are lacking. In order to evaluate the influence of air pollution and climatic factors on emergency hospital admissions (EHA) in SCD patients, we conducted an 8-year observational retrospective study in 22 French university hospitals in Paris conurbation, using distributed lag non-linear models, a methodology able to flexibly describe simultaneously non-linear and delayed associations, with a multivariable approach. During the 2922 days of the study, there were 17,710 EHA, with a mean daily number of 6.1 ± 2.8. Most environmental factors were significantly correlated to each other. The risk of EHA was significantly associated with higher values of nitrogen dioxide, atmospheric particulate matters, and daily mean wind speed; and with lower values of carbon monoxide, ozone, sulfur dioxide, daily temperature (minimal, maximal, mean, and range), day-to-day mean temperature change, daily bright sunshine, and occurrence of storm. There was a lag effect for 12 of 15 environmental factors influencing hospitalization rate. Multivariate analysis identified carbon monoxide, day-to-day temperature change, and mean wind speed, along with calendar factors (weekend, summer season, and year) as independent factors associated with EHA. In conclusion, most weather conditions and air pollutants assessed were correlated to each other and influenced the rate of EHA in SCD patients. In multivariate analysis, lower carbon monoxide concentrations, day-to-day mean temperature drop and higher wind speed were associated with increased risk of EHA. PMID:25546672

Environmental influences on daily emergency admissions in sickle-cell disease patients.

PubMed

Mekontso Dessap, Armand; Contou, Damien; Dandine-Roulland, Claire; Hemery, François; Habibi, Anoosha; Charles-Nelson, Anaïs; Galacteros, Frederic; Brun-Buisson, Christian; Maitre, Bernard; Katsahian, Sandrine

2014-12-01

Previous reports have suggested a role for weather conditions and air pollution on the variability of sickle cell disease (SCD) severity, but large-scale comprehensive epidemiological studies are lacking. In order to evaluate the influence of air pollution and climatic factors on emergency hospital admissions (EHA) in SCD patients, we conducted an 8-year observational retrospective study in 22 French university hospitals in Paris conurbation, using distributed lag non-linear models, a methodology able to flexibly describe simultaneously non-linear and delayed associations, with a multivariable approach. During the 2922 days of the study, there were 17,710 EHA, with a mean daily number of 6.1 ± 2.8. Most environmental factors were significantly correlated to each other. The risk of EHA was significantly associated with higher values of nitrogen dioxide, atmospheric particulate matters, and daily mean wind speed; and with lower values of carbon monoxide, ozone, sulfur dioxide, daily temperature (minimal, maximal, mean, and range), day-to-day mean temperature change, daily bright sunshine, and occurrence of storm. There was a lag effect for 12 of 15 environmental factors influencing hospitalization rate. Multivariate analysis identified carbon monoxide, day-to-day temperature change, and mean wind speed, along with calendar factors (weekend, summer season, and year) as independent factors associated with EHA. In conclusion, most weather conditions and air pollutants assessed were correlated to each other and influenced the rate of EHA in SCD patients. In multivariate analysis, lower carbon monoxide concentrations, day-to-day mean temperature drop and higher wind speed were associated with increased risk of EHA.

Development of a HEC-RAS temperature model for the North Santiam River, northwestern Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stonewall, Adam J.; Buccola, Norman L.

2015-01-01

Much of the error in temperature predictions resulted from the model’s inability to accurately simulate the full range of diurnal fluctuations during the warmest months. Future iterations of the model could be improved by the collection and inclusion of additional streamflow and temperature data, especially near the mouth of the South Santiam River. Presently, the model is able to predict hourly and daily water temperatures under a wide variety of conditions with a typical error of 0.8 and 0.7 °C, respectively.

Using air/water/sediment temperature contrasts to identify groundwater seepage locations in small streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karan, S.; Sebok, E.; Engesgaard, P. K.

2016-12-01

For identifying groundwater seepage locations in small streams within a headwater catchment, we present a method expanding on the linear regression of air and stream temperatures. Thus, by measuring the temperatures in dual-depth; in the stream column and at the streambed-water interface (SWI), we apply metrics from linear regression analysis of temperatures between air/stream and air/SWI (linear regression slope, intercept and coefficient of determination), and the daily mean temperatures (temperature variance and the average difference between the minimum and maximum daily temperatures). Our study show that using metrics from single-depth stream temperature measurements only are not sufficient to identify substantial groundwater seepage locations within a headwater stream. Conversely, comparing the metrics from dual-depth temperatures show significant differences so that at groundwater seepage locations, temperatures at the SWI, merely explain 43-75 % of the variation opposed to ≥91 % at the corresponding stream column temperatures. The figure showing a box-plot of the variation in daily mean temperature depict that at several locations there is great variation in the range the upper and lower loggers due to groundwater seepage. In general, the linear regression show that at these locations at the SWI, the slopes (<0.25) and intercepts (>6.5oC) are substantially lower and higher, while the mean diel amplitudes (<0.98oC) are decreased compared to remaining locations. The dual-depth approach was applied in a post-glacial fluvial setting, where metrics analyses overall corresponded to field measurements of groundwater fluxes deduced from vertical streambed temperatures and stream flow accretions. Thus, we propose a method reliably identifying groundwater seepage locations along streambed in such settings.

Selected meteorological data for an arid site near Beatty, Nye County, Nevada, calendar year 1988

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, James L.; Hill, Kevin J.; Andraski, Brian J.

1992-01-01

Selected meteorological data were collected at a study site adjacent to a low-level radioactive-waste burial facility near Beatty/ Nevada, for calendar year 1988. Data were collected in support of ongoing studies to estimate the potential for downward movement of radionuclides into the unsaturated sediments beneath waste-burial trenches at the facility. The data include air temperature, relative humidity, vapor pressure, incident solar radiation, windspeed, wind direction, and precipitation. The data are summarized in tables and graphs.Instrumentation used at the site is discussed. The discussion includes the type, reported accuracy, and mounting height of each sensor.In 1988, the average hourly air temperatures ranged from -10.2 degrees Celsius, in December, to 45.3 degrees Celsius, in July. Hourly averaged relative humidity ranged from about 12 percent to over 80 percent. Hourly vapor pressures ranged from 0.09 to 2.22 kilopascals. Daily values for maximum incident solar radiation ranged from 63 to 1,064 watts per square meter. Daily mean windspeed ranged from 1.2 to 7.8 meters per second. Monthly wind-direction patterns are shown in a series of diagrams in which wind direction is summed over 10-degree arcs from hourly averaged data. Total precipitation for 1988 was 104.5 millimeters, with over 70 percent occurring from January through May.

Long-term projections of temperature-related mortality risks for ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and acute ischemic heart disease under changing climate in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M; Bader, Daniel A; Liu, Fangchao; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L

2018-03-01

Changing climates have been causing variations in the number of global ischemic heart disease and stroke incidences, and will continue to affect disease occurrence in the future. To project temperature-related mortality for acute ischemic heart disease, and ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke with concomitant climate warming. We estimated the exposure-response relationship between daily cause-specific mortality and daily mean temperature in Beijing. We utilized outputs from 31 downscaled climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. This strategy was used to estimate future net temperature along with heat- and cold-related deaths. The results for predicted temperature-related deaths were subsequently contrasted with the baseline period. In the 2080s, using the RCP8.5 and no population variation scenarios, the net total number of annual temperature-related deaths exhibited a median value of 637 (with a range across models of 434-874) for ischemic stroke; this is an increase of approximately 100% compared with the 1980s. The median number of projected annual temperature-related deaths was 660 (with a range across models of 580-745) for hemorrhagic stroke (virtually no change compared with the 1980s), and 1683 (with a range across models of 1351-2002) for acute ischemic heart disease (a slight increase of approximately 20% compared with the 1980s). In the 2080s, the monthly death projection for hemorrhagic stroke and acute ischemic heart disease showed that the largest absolute changes occurred in summer and winter while the largest absolute changes for ischemic stroke occurred in summer. We projected that the temperature-related mortality associated with ischemic stroke will increase dramatically due to climate warming. However, projected temperature-related mortality pertaining to acute ischemic heart disease and hemorrhagic stroke should remain relatively stable over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thermoregulation of alpacas bred in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattiello, Silvana; Formis, Elena; Barbieri, Sara

2011-03-01

The present study monitored daily and seasonal variations of rectal temperature in response to different environmental temperatures in alpacas bred in the Italian Apennines at 300 m a.s.l. In each season, the rectal temperature of 33 clinically healthy alpacas was measured three times/day (morning, midday, afternoon). Ambient temperatures were also recorded. Rectal temperatures ranged from a minimum value of 35.1 to a maximum of 39.4°C, with a maximum daily thermal excursion (ΔTrec) of 3.2°C. Temperatures increased throughout the day, with highly significant differences recorded in both young and adult animals between all the time bands ( P < 0.001). These differences were particularly dramatic for adults in summer, when the mean rectal temperature in the morning was 36.3 ± 0.13°C, probably as a consequence of recent shearing. Significant ΔTrec differences were recorded depending on the season in both young and adult animals ( P < 0.001), with the highest ΔTrec values recorded in summer (although the highest daily ambient excursion value was recorded in winter). In conclusion, similarly to alpacas bred in their natural environment, alpacas bred in Italy show a wide thermal neutrality zone, which is probably an adaptive response, that allows the animals to save energy. In the Italian Apennines, in order to prevent situations of hypothermia, with possible detrimental effects on alpacas' health and welfare, shearing should be carried out only in warm seasons.

Impact of automatization in temperature series in Spain and comparison with the POST-AWS dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilar, Enric; López-Díaz, José Antonio; Prohom Duran, Marc; Gilabert, Alba; Luna Rico, Yolanda; Venema, Victor; Auchmann, Renate; Stepanek, Petr; Brandsma, Theo

2016-04-01

Climate data records are most of the times affected by inhomogeneities. Especially inhomogeneities introducing network-wide biases are sometimes related to changes happening almost simultaneously in an entire network. Relative homogenization is difficult in these cases, especially at the daily scale. A good example of this is the substitution of manual observations (MAN) by automatic weather stations (AWS). Parallel measurements (i.e. records taken at the same time with the old (MAN) and new (AWS) sensors can provide an idea of the bias introduced and help to evaluate the suitability of different correction approaches. We present here a quality controlled dataset compiled under the DAAMEC Project, comprising 46 stations across Spain and over 85,000 parallel measurements (AWS-MAN) of daily maximum and minimum temperature. We study the differences between both sensors and compare it with the available metadata to account for internal inhomogeneities. The differences between both systems vary much across stations, with patterns more related to their particular settings than to climatic/geographical reasons. The typical median biases (AWS-MAN) by station (comprised between the interquartile range) oscillate between -0.2°C and 0.4 in daily maximum temperature and between -0.4°C and 0.2°C in daily minimum temperature. These and other results are compared with a larger network, the Parallel Observations Scientific Team, a working group of the International Surface Temperatures Initiative (ISTI-POST) dataset, which comprises our stations, as well as others from different countries in America, Asia and Europe.

Climate trends of the North American prairie pothole region 1906-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Millett, B.; Johnson, W.C.; Guntenspergen, G.

2009-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is unique to North America. Its millions of wetlands and abundant ecosystem goods and services are highly sensitive to wide variations of temperature and precipitation in time and space characteristic of a strongly continental climate. Precipitation and temperature gradients across the PPR are orthogonal to each other. Precipitation nearly triples from west to east from approximately 300 mm/year to 900 mm/year, while mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 1°C in the north to nearly 10°C in the south. Twentieth-century weather records for 18 PPR weather stations representing 6 ecoregions revealed several trends. The climate generally has been getting warmer and wetter and the diurnal temperature range has decreased. Minimum daily temperatures warmed by 1.0°C, while maximum daily temperatures cooled by 0.15°C. Minimum temperature warmed more in winter than in summer, while maximum temperature cooled in summer and warmed in winter. Average annual precipitation increased by 49 mm or 9%. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) trends reflected increasing moisture availability for most weather stations; however, several stations in the western Canadian Prairies recorded effectively drier conditions. The east-west moisture gradient steepened during the twentieth century with stations in the west becoming drier and stations in the east becoming wetter. If the moisture gradient continues to steepen, the area of productive wetland ecosystems will shrink. Consequences for wetlands would be especially severe if the future climate does not provide supplemental moisture to offset higher evaporative demand.

Associations between Temperature and Hospital Admissions for Subarachnoid Hemorrhage in Korea

PubMed Central

Lee, Suji; Guth, Matthias

2017-01-01

The relationship between temperature and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is less studied than that between temperature and myocardial infarction or other cardiovascular diseases. This study investigated the association between daily temperature and risk of SAH by analyzing the hospital admission records of 111,316 SAH patients from 2004 to 2012 in Korea. A Poisson regression model was used to examine the association between temperature and daily SAH hospital admissions. To analyze data and identify vulnerable groups, we used the following subgroups: sex, age, insurance type, area (rural or urban), and different climate zones. We confirmed a markedly higher SAH risk only for people of low socioeconomic status in both hot and cold temperatures; the relative risk (RR) in the Medicaid group was significantly increased and ranged from 1.04 to 1.11 for cold temperatures and 1.10 to 1.11 for hot temperatures. For the National Health Insurance group, the RR was increased to 1.02 for the maximum temperature only. The increased risk for SAH was highest in the temperate zone. An increase above the heat threshold temperature and a decrease below the cold threshold temperature were correlated with an increased risk of SAH in susceptible populations and were associated with different lag effects and RRs. PMID:28430143

Skin temperature, thermal comfort, sweating, clothing and activity of men sledging in Antarctica

PubMed Central

Budd, G. M.

1966-01-01

1. Three men were studied while dog-sledging 320 km in 12 days in Antarctica. Conventional Antarctic clothing (`sweaters and windproofs') was worn. Four hundred observations were made of medial thigh skin temperature, thermal comfort, sweating, clothing, activity and environmental conditions. 2. Work occupied an average of 11·0 hr/day and sleep 7·5 hr. Estimated daily energy expenditure averaged 5100 kcal (range 2740-6660 kcal). 3. Skin temperature fell on exposure to cold despite the clothing worn, but was not changed by the level of activity. Sweating, and thermal comfort, were directly related to both skin temperature and activity. 4. Inside the tent, the modal value of skin temperature was 33° C (range 27-36° C) and the men were comfortable in 94% of observations. 5. During the 9·2 hr/day spent outdoors the modal value of skin temperature was 27° C (range 18-33° C) and the men felt too cold (but did not shiver) in 11% (range 7-20%) of observations, suggesting that cold stress was not negligible. However, they also felt too hot in 20% of observations and were sweating in 23%. PMID:5914254

Impact of extreme temperatures on daily mortality in Madrid (Spain) among the 45-64 age-group.

PubMed

Díaz, Julio; Linares, Cristina; Tobías, Aurelio

2006-07-01

This paper analyses the relationship between extreme temperatures and mortality among persons aged 45-64 years. Daily mortality in Madrid was analysed by sex and cause, from January 1986 to December 1997. Quantitative analyses were performed using generalised additive models, with other covariables, such as influenza, air pollution and seasonality, included as controls. Our results showed that impact on mortality was limited for temperatures ranging from the 5th to the 95th percentiles, and increased sharply thereafter. During the summer period, the effect of heat was detected solely among males in the target age group, with an attributable risk (AR) of 13.3% for circulatory causes. Similarly, NO(2) concentrations registered the main statistically significant associations in females, with an AR of 15% when circulatory causes were considered. During winter, the impact of cold was exclusively observed among females having an AR of 7.7%. The magnitude of the AR indicates that the impact of extreme temperature is by no means negligible.

Climate specific thermomechanical fatigue of flat plate photovoltaic module solder joints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bosco, Nick; Silverman, Timothy J.; Kurtz, Sarah

FEM simulations of PbSn solder fatigue damage are used to evaluate seven cities that represent a variety of climatic zones. It is shown that the rate of solder fatigue damage is not ranked with the cities' climate designations. For an accurate ranking, the mean maximum daily temperature, daily temperature change and a characteristic of clouding events are all required. A physics-based empirical equation is presented that accurately calculates solder fatigue damage according to these three factors. An FEM comparison of solder damage accumulated through service and thermal cycling demonstrates the number of cycles required for an equivalent exposure. For anmore » equivalent 25-year exposure, the number of thermal cycles (-40 degrees C to 85 degrees C) required ranged from roughly 100 to 630 for the cities examined. It is demonstrated that increasing the maximum cycle temperature may significantly reduce the number of thermal cycles required for an equivalent exposure.« less

Simulated body temperature rhythms reveal the phase-shifting behavior and plasticity of mammalian circadian oscillators.

PubMed

Saini, Camille; Morf, Jörg; Stratmann, Markus; Gos, Pascal; Schibler, Ueli

2012-03-15

The circadian pacemaker in the suprachiasmatic nuclei (SCN) of the hypothalamus maintains phase coherence in peripheral cells through metabolic, neuronal, and humoral signaling pathways. Here, we investigated the role of daily body temperature fluctuations as possible systemic cues in the resetting of peripheral oscillators. Using precise temperature devices in conjunction with real-time monitoring of the bioluminescence produced by circadian luciferase reporter genes, we showed that simulated body temperature cycles of mice and even humans, with daily temperature differences of only 3°C and 1°C, respectively, could gradually synchronize circadian gene expression in cultured fibroblasts. The time required for establishing the new steady-state phase depended on the reporter gene, but after a few days, the expression of each gene oscillated with a precise phase relative to that of the temperature cycles. Smooth temperature oscillations with a very small amplitude could synchronize fibroblast clocks over a wide temperature range, and such temperature rhythms were also capable of entraining gene expression cycles to periods significantly longer or shorter than 24 h. As revealed by genetic loss-of-function experiments, heat-shock factor 1 (HSF1), but not HSF2, was required for the efficient synchronization of fibroblast oscillators to simulated body temperature cycles.

Simulated body temperature rhythms reveal the phase-shifting behavior and plasticity of mammalian circadian oscillators

PubMed Central

Saini, Camille; Morf, Jörg; Stratmann, Markus; Gos, Pascal; Schibler, Ueli

2012-01-01

The circadian pacemaker in the suprachiasmatic nuclei (SCN) of the hypothalamus maintains phase coherence in peripheral cells through metabolic, neuronal, and humoral signaling pathways. Here, we investigated the role of daily body temperature fluctuations as possible systemic cues in the resetting of peripheral oscillators. Using precise temperature devices in conjunction with real-time monitoring of the bioluminescence produced by circadian luciferase reporter genes, we showed that simulated body temperature cycles of mice and even humans, with daily temperature differences of only 3°C and 1°C, respectively, could gradually synchronize circadian gene expression in cultured fibroblasts. The time required for establishing the new steady-state phase depended on the reporter gene, but after a few days, the expression of each gene oscillated with a precise phase relative to that of the temperature cycles. Smooth temperature oscillations with a very small amplitude could synchronize fibroblast clocks over a wide temperature range, and such temperature rhythms were also capable of entraining gene expression cycles to periods significantly longer or shorter than 24 h. As revealed by genetic loss-of-function experiments, heat-shock factor 1 (HSF1), but not HSF2, was required for the efficient synchronization of fibroblast oscillators to simulated body temperature cycles. PMID:22379191

Simulating the effect of climate change on stream temperature in the Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Selbig, William R.

2015-01-01

The potential for increases in stream temperature across many spatial and temporal scales as a result of climate change can pose a difficult challenge for environmental managers, especially when addressing thermal requirements for sensitive aquatic species. This study evaluates simulated changes to the thermal regime of three northern Wisconsin streams in response to a projected changing climate using a modeling framework and considers implications of thermal stresses to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with a coupled groundwater and surface water flow model to assess forecasts in climate from six global circulation models and three emission scenarios. Model results suggest that annual average stream temperature will steadily increase approximately 1.1 to 3.2 °C (varying by stream) by the year 2100 with differences in magnitude between emission scenarios. Daily mean stream temperature during the months of July and August, a period when cold-water fish communities are most sensitive, showed excursions from optimal temperatures with increased frequency compared to current conditions. Projections of daily mean stream temperature, in some cases, were no longer in the range necessary to sustain a cold water fishery.

Simulating the effect of climate change on stream temperature in the Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin.

PubMed

Selbig, William R

2015-07-15

The potential for increases in stream temperature across many spatial and temporal scales as a result of climate change can pose a difficult challenge for environmental managers, especially when addressing thermal requirements for sensitive aquatic species. This study evaluates simulated changes to the thermal regime of three northern Wisconsin streams in response to a projected changing climate using a modeling framework and considers implications of thermal stresses to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with a coupled groundwater and surface water flow model to assess forecasts in climate from six global circulation models and three emission scenarios. Model results suggest that annual average stream temperature will steadily increase approximately 1.1 to 3.2°C (varying by stream) by the year 2100 with differences in magnitude between emission scenarios. Daily mean stream temperature during the months of July and August, a period when cold-water fish communities are most sensitive, showed excursions from optimal temperatures with increased frequency compared to current conditions. Projections of daily mean stream temperature, in some cases, were no longer in the range necessary to sustain a cold water fishery. Published by Elsevier B.V.

On the impacts of computing daily temperatures as the average of the daily minimum and maximum temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villarini, Gabriele; Khouakhi, Abdou; Cunningham, Evan

2017-12-01

Daily temperature values are generally computed as the average of the daily minimum and maximum observations, which can lead to biases in the estimation of daily averaged values. This study examines the impacts of these biases on the calculation of climatology and trends in temperature extremes at 409 sites in North America with at least 25 years of complete hourly records. Our results show that the calculation of daily temperature based on the average of minimum and maximum daily readings leads to an overestimation of the daily values of 10+ % when focusing on extremes and values above (below) high (low) thresholds. Moreover, the effects of the data processing method on trend estimation are generally small, even though the use of the daily minimum and maximum readings reduces the power of trend detection ( 5-10% fewer trends detected in comparison with the reference data).

Forecasting daily emergency department visits using calendar variables and ambient temperature readings.

PubMed

Marcilio, Izabel; Hajat, Shakoor; Gouveia, Nelson

2013-08-01

This study aimed to develop different models to forecast the daily number of patients seeking emergency department (ED) care in a general hospital according to calendar variables and ambient temperature readings and to compare the models in terms of forecasting accuracy. The authors developed and tested six different models of ED patient visits using total daily counts of patient visits to an ED in Sao Paulo, Brazil, from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2010. The first 33 months of the data set were used to develop the ED patient visits forecasting models (the training set), leaving the last 3 months to measure each model's forecasting accuracy by the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Forecasting models were developed using three different time-series analysis methods: generalized linear models (GLM), generalized estimating equations (GEE), and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA). For each method, models were explored with and without the effect of mean daily temperature as a predictive variable. The daily mean number of ED visits was 389, ranging from 166 to 613. Data showed a weekly seasonal distribution, with highest patient volumes on Mondays and lowest patient volumes on weekends. There was little variation in daily visits by month. GLM and GEE models showed better forecasting accuracy than SARIMA models. For instance, the MAPEs from GLM models and GEE models at the first month of forecasting (October 2012) were 11.5 and 10.8% (models with and without control for the temperature effect, respectively), while the MAPEs from SARIMA models were 12.8 and 11.7%. For all models, controlling for the effect of temperature resulted in worse or similar forecasting ability than models with calendar variables alone, and forecasting accuracy was better for the short-term horizon (7 days in advance) than for the longer term (30 days in advance). This study indicates that time-series models can be developed to provide forecasts of daily ED patient visits, and forecasting ability was dependent on the type of model employed and the length of the time horizon being predicted. In this setting, GLM and GEE models showed better accuracy than SARIMA models. Including information about ambient temperature in the models did not improve forecasting accuracy. Forecasting models based on calendar variables alone did in general detect patterns of daily variability in ED volume and thus could be used for developing an automated system for better planning of personnel resources. © 2013 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Canadian crop calendars in support of the early warning project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trenchard, M. H.; Hodges, T. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

The Canadian crop calendars for LACIE are presented. Long term monthly averages of daily maximum and daily minimum temperatures for subregions of provinces were used to simulate normal daily maximum and minimum temperatures. The Robertson (1968) spring wheat and Williams (1974) spring barley phenology models were run using the simulated daily temperatures and daylengths for appropriate latitudes. Simulated daily temperatures and phenology model outputs for spring wheat and spring barley are given.

A model to forecast short-term snowmelt runoff using synoptic observations of streamflow, temperature, and precipitation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tangborn, Wendell V.

1980-01-01

Snowmelt runoff is forecast with a statistical model that utilizes daily values of stream discharge, gaged precipitation, and maximum and minimum observations of air temperature. Synoptic observations of these variables are made at existing low- and medium-altitude weather stations, thus eliminating the difficulties and expense of new, high-altitude installations. Four model development steps are used to demonstrate the influence on prediction accuracy of basin storage, a preforecast test season, air temperature (to estimate ablation), and a prediction based on storage. Daily ablation is determined by a technique that employs both mean temperature and a radiative index. Radiation (both long- and short-wave components) is approximated by using the range in daily temperature, which is shown to be closely related to mean cloud cover. A technique based on the relationship between prediction error and prediction season weather utilizes short-term forecasts of precipitation and temperature to improve the final prediction. Verification of the model is accomplished by a split sampling technique for the 1960–1977 period. Short- term (5–15 days) predictions of runoff throughout the main snowmelt season are demonstrated for mountain drainages in western Washington, south-central Arizona, western Montana, and central California. The coefficient of prediction (Cp) based on actual, short-term predictions for 18 years is for Thunder Creek (Washington), 0.69; for South Fork Flathead River (Montana), 0.45; for the Black River (Arizona), 0.80; and for the Kings River (California), 0.80.

Greenland ice sheet melt from MODIS and associated atmospheric variability.

PubMed

Häkkinen, Sirpa; Hall, Dorothy K; Shuman, Christopher A; Worthen, Denise L; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E

2014-03-16

Daily June-July melt fraction variations over the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) (2000-2013) are associated with atmospheric blocking forming an omega-shape ridge over the GIS at 500 hPa height. Blocking activity with a range of time scales, from synoptic waves breaking poleward (<5 days) to full-fledged blocks (≥5 days), brings warm subtropical air masses over the GIS controlling daily surface temperatures and melt. The temperature anomaly of these subtropical air mass intrusions is also important for melting. Based on the years with the greatest melt (2002 and 2012) during the MODIS era, the area-average temperature anomaly of 2 standard deviations above the 14 year June-July mean results in a melt fraction of 40% or more. Though the summer of 2007 had the most blocking days, atmospheric temperature anomalies were too small to instigate extreme melting. Short-term atmospheric blocking over Greenland contributes to melt episodesAssociated temperature anomalies are equally important for the meltDuration and strength of blocking events contribute to surface melt intensity.

Communal nesting under climate change: fitness consequences of higher incubation temperatures for a nocturnal lizard.

PubMed

Dayananda, Buddhi; Gray, Sarah; Pike, David; Webb, Jonathan K

2016-07-01

Communal nesting lizards may be vulnerable to climate warming, particularly if air temperatures regulate nest temperatures. In southeastern Australia, velvet geckos Oedura lesueurii lay eggs communally inside rock crevices. We investigated whether increases in air temperatures could elevate nest temperatures, and if so, how this could influence hatching phenotypes, survival, and population dynamics. In natural nests, maximum daily air temperature influenced mean and maximum daily nest temperatures, implying that nest temperatures will increase under climate warming. To determine whether hotter nests influence hatchling phenotypes, we incubated eggs under two fluctuating temperature regimes to mimic current 'cold' nests (mean = 23.2 °C, range 10-33 °C) and future 'hot' nests (27.0 °C, 14-37 °C). 'Hot' incubation temperatures produced smaller hatchlings than did cold temperature incubation. We released individually marked hatchlings into the wild in 2014 and 2015, and monitored their survival over 10 months. In 2014 and 2015, hot-incubated hatchlings had higher annual mortality (99%, 97%) than cold-incubated (11%, 58%) or wild-born hatchlings (78%, 22%). To determine future trajectories of velvet gecko populations under climate warming, we ran population viability analyses in Vortex and varied annual rates of hatchling mortality within the range 78- 96%. Hatchling mortality strongly influenced the probability of extinction and the mean time to extinction. When hatchling mortality was >86%, populations had a higher probability of extinction (PE: range 0.52- 1.0) with mean times to extinction of 18-44 years. Whether future changes in hatchling survival translate into reduced population viability will depend on the ability of females to modify their nest-site choices. Over the period 1992-2015, females used the same communal nests annually, suggesting that there may be little plasticity in maternal nest-site selection. The impacts of climate change may therefore be especially severe on communal nesting species, particularly if such species occupy thermally challenging environments. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The key to winter survival: daily torpor in a small arid-zone marsupial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Körtner, Gerhard; Geiser, Fritz

2009-04-01

Mammalian hibernation, which lasts on average for about 6 months, can reduce energy expenditure by >90% in comparison to active individuals. In contrast, the widely held view is that daily torpor reduces energy expenditure usually by about 30%, is employed for a few hours every few days, and often occurs only under acute energetic stress. This interpretation is largely based on laboratory studies, whereas knowledge on daily torpor in the field is scant. We used temperature telemetry to quantify thermal biology and activity patterns of a small arid-zone marsupial, the stripe-faced dunnart Sminthopsis macroura (16.9 g), in the wild and to test the hypothesis that daily torpor is a crucial survival strategy of this species in winter. All individuals entered torpor daily with the exception of a single male that remained normothermic for a single day (torpor on 212 of 213 observation days, 99.5%). Torpor was employed at air temperatures ( T a) ranging from approximately -1°C to 36°C. Dunnarts usually entered torpor during the night and aroused at midday with the daily increase of T a. Torpor was on average about twice as long (mean 11.0 ± 4.7 h, n = 8) than in captivity. Animals employed sun basking during rewarming, reduced foraging time significantly, and occasionally omitted activity for several days in sequence. Consequently, we estimate that daily torpor in this species can reduce daily energy expenditure by up to 90%. Our study shows that for wild stripe-faced dunnarts daily torpor is an essential mechanism for overcoming energetic challenges during winter and that torpor data obtained in the laboratory can substantially underestimate the ecological significance of daily torpor in the wild.

Differences between true mean temperatures and means calculated with four different approaches: a case study from three Croatian stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonacci, Ognjen; Željković, Ivana

2018-01-01

Different countries use varied methods for daily mean temperature calculation. None of them assesses precisely the true daily mean temperature, which is defined as the integral of continuous temperature measurements in a day. Of special scientific as well as practical importance is to find out how temperatures calculated by different methods and approaches deviate from the true daily mean temperature. Five mean daily temperatures were calculated (T0, T1, T2, T3, T4) using five different equations. The mean of 24-h temperature observations during the calendar day is accepted to represent the true, daily mean T0. The differences Δ i between T0 and four other mean daily temperatures T1, T2, T3, and T4 were calculated and analysed. In the paper, analyses were done with hourly data measured in a period from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2014 (149,016 h, 192 months and 16 years) at three Croatian meteorological stations. The stations are situated in distinct climatological areas: Zagreb Grič in a mild climate, Zavižan in the cold mountain region and Dubrovnik in the hot Mediterranean. Influence of fog on the temperature is analysed. Special attention is given to analyses of extreme (maximum and minimum) daily differences occurred at three analysed stations. Selection of the fixed local hours, which is in use for calculation of mean daily temperature, plays a crucial role in diminishing of bias from the true daily temperature.

A novel approach for detecting heat waves: the Standardized Heat-Wave Index.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucchi, Marco; Petitta, Marcello; Calmanti, Sandro

2016-04-01

Extreme temperatures have an impact on the energy balance of any living organism and on the operational capabilities of critical infrastructures. The ability to capture the occurrence of extreme temperature events is therefore an essential property of a multi-hazard extreme climate indicator. In this paper we introduce a new index for the detection of such extreme temperature events called SHI (Standardized Heat-Wave Index), developed in the context of XCF project for the construction of a multi-hazard extreme climate indicator (ECI). SHI is a probabilistic index based on the analysis of maximum daily temperatures time series; it is standardized, enabling comparisons overs space/time and with other indices, and it is capable of describing both extreme cold and hot events. Given a particular location, SHI is constructed using the time series of local maximum daily temperatures with the following procedure: three-days cumulated maximum daily temperatures are assigned to each day of the time series; probabilities of occurrence in the same months the reference days belong to are computed for each of the previous calculated values; such probability values are thus projected on a standard normal distribution, obtaining our standardized indices. In this work we present results obtained using NCEP Reanalysis dataset for air temperature at sigma 0.995 level, which timespan ranges from 1948 to 2014. Given the specific framework of this work, the geographical focus of this study is limited to the African continent. We present a validation of the index by showing its use for monitoring heat-waves under different climate regimes.

Selected meteorological data for an arid site near Beatty, Nye County, Nevada, calendar year 1987

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, James L.; Fischer, Jeffrey M.

1992-01-01

Selected meteorological data were collected at a study site adjacent to a low-level radioactive-waste burial facility near Beatty, Nevada, for calendar year 1987. Data were collected in support of an ongoing study to estimate the potential for downward movement of radionuclides into the unsaturated sediments beneath waste-burial trenches at the facility. The data include air temperature, relative humidity, vapor pressure, incident solar radiation, windspeed, wind direction, and precipitation. The data are summarized in tables and graphs A discussion of the instrumentation used at the site is presented. Included in the discussion are the type of sensors, their reported accuracy, and mounting height of each sensor.In 1987, the average hourly air temperatures ranged from -7.6 degrees Celsius, in December, to 43.1 degrees Celsius, in July. Hourly averaged relative humidity ranged from about 12 percent to over 80 percent. Hourly vapor pressures ranged from 0.12 to 1.77 kilopascals. Daily values for maximum incident solar radiation ranged from 118 to 1,067 watts per square meter. Daily mean windspeed ranged from 1.4 to 9.4 meters per second. Monthly wind-direction patterns are shown in a series of diagrams in which wind direction is summed over 10-degree arcs from hourly averaged data. Total precipitation for 1987 was 136.4 millimeters, more than 75 percent occurring during January-April and November-December.

40 CFR 63.1350 - Monitoring requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... alkali bypass PMCDs. (i) The temperature recorder response range must include zero and 1.5 times the... provide output of relative or absolute particulate matter loadings. (v) The bag leak detection system must... period. (7) The flow rate sensor must have provisions to determine the daily zero and upscale calibration...

Coupling diffusion and maximum entropy models to estimate thermal inertia

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Thermal inertia is a physical property of soil at the land surface related to water content. We have developed a method for estimating soil thermal inertia using two daily measurements of surface temperature, to capture the diurnal range, and diurnal time series of net radiation and specific humidi...

Seasonal, daily activity, and habitat use by three sympatric pit vipers (Serpentes, Viperidae) from southern Brazil.

PubMed

Rocha, Marcelo C; Hartmann, Paulo A; Winck, Gisele R; Cechin, Sonia Z

2014-04-25

Viperid snakes are widely distributed in the South America and the greater distribution range of the family is found at the Crotalinae subfamily. Despite the abundance of this snakes along their geographic distribution, some ecological aspects remain unknown, principally at subtropical areas. In the present study, we evaluated the activity (daily and seasonal) and the use of the habitat by Bothrops diporus, B. jararaca and B. jararacussu, in an Atlantic Forest area at southern Brazil. We observed higher incidence of viperid snakes during the months with higher temperatures, while no snakes were found during the months with lower temperatures. The data suggest the minimum temperature as environmental variable with the greatest influence on the seasonal activity of this species. Considering the daily activity, we observed a tendency of snakes to avoid the warmest hours. Bothrops jararacussu tend to avoid open areas, being registered only inside and at the edges of the forest. We compared our results with previous studies realized at tropical areas and we suggest the observed seasonal activity as an evolutive response, despite the influence of the different environmental variables, according to the occurence region.

Clarifying the role of fire heat and daily temperature fluctuations as germination cues for Mediterranean Basin obligate seeders

PubMed Central

Santana, Victor M.; Baeza, M. Jaime; Blanes, M. Carmen

2013-01-01

Background and Aims This study aims to determine the role that both direct effects of fire and subsequent daily temperature fluctuations play in the seed bank dynamics of obligate seeders from the Mediterranean Basin. The short yet high soil temperatures experienced due to passage of fire are conflated with the lower, but longer, temperatures experienced by daily fluctuations which occur after removing vegetation. These germination cues are able to break seed dormancy, but it is difficult to assess their specific level of influence because they occur consecutively after summer fires, just before the flush of germination in the wet season (autumn). Methods By applying experimental fires, seed treatments were imposed that combined fire exposure/non-fire exposure with exposure to microhabitats under a gradient of disturbance (i.e. gaps opened by fire, mechanical brushing and intact vegetation). The seeds used were representative of the main families of obligate seeders (Ulex parviflorus, Cistus albidus and Rosmarinus officinalis). Specifically, an assessment was made of (1) the proportion of seeds killed by fire, (2) seedling emergence under field conditions and (3) seeds which remained ungerminated in soil. Key Results For the three species studied, the factors that most influenced seedling emergence and seeds remaining ungerminated were microhabitats with higher temperature fluctuations after fire (gaps opened by fire and brushing treatments). The direct effect of fire decreased the seedling emergence of U. parviflorus and reduced the proportion of seeds of R. officinalis remaining ungerminated. Conclusions The relevance of depleting vegetation (and subsequent daily temperature fluctuation in summer) suggests that studies focusing on lower temperature thresholds for breaking seed dormancy are required. This fact also supports the hypothesis that the seeding capacity in Mediterranean Basin obligate seeders may have evolved as a response to a wide range of disturbances, and not exclusively to fire. PMID:23129044

The influence of cooling forearm/hand and gender on estimation of handgrip strength.

PubMed

Cheng, Chih-Chan; Shih, Yuh-Chuan; Tsai, Yue-Jin; Chi, Chia-Fen

2014-01-01

Handgrip strength is essential in manual operations and activities of daily life, but the influence of forearm/hand skin temperature on estimation of handgrip strength is not well documented. Therefore, the present study intended to investigate the effect of local cooling of the forearm/hand on estimation of handgrip strength at various target force levels (TFLs, in percentage of MVC) for both genders. A cold pressor test was used to lower and maintain the hand skin temperature at 14°C for comparison with the uncooled condition. A total of 10 male and 10 female participants were recruited. The results indicated that females had greater absolute estimation deviations. In addition, both genders had greater absolute deviations in the middle range of TFLs. Cooling caused an underestimation of grip strength. Furthermore, a power function is recommended for establishing the relationship between actual and estimated handgrip force. Statement of relevance: Manipulation with grip strength is essential in daily life and the workplace, so it is important to understand the influence of lowering the forearm/hand skin temperature on grip-strength estimation. Females and the middle range of TFL had greater deviations. Cooling the forearm/hand tended to cause underestimation, and a power function is recommended for establishing the relationship between actual and estimated handgrip force. Practitioner Summary: It is important to understand the effect of lowering the forearm/hand skin temperature on grip-strength estimation. A cold pressor was used to cool the hand. The cooling caused underestimation, and a power function is recommended for establishing the relationship between actual and estimated handgrip force. Manipulation with grip strength is essential in daily life and the workplace, so it is important to understand the influence of lowering the forearm/hand skin temperature on grip-strength estimation. Females and the middle range of TFL had greater deviations. Cooling the forearm/hand tended to cause underestimation, and a power function is recommended for establishing the relationship between actual and estimated handgrip force. It is important to understand the effect of lowering the forearm/hand skin temperature on grip-strength estimation. A cold pressor was used to cool the hand. The cooling caused underestimation, and a power function is recommended for establishing the relationship between actual and estimated handgrip force

Ambient temperature signalling in plants.

PubMed

Wigge, Philip A

2013-10-01

Plants are exposed to daily and seasonal fluctuations in temperature. Within the 'ambient' temperature range (about 12-27°C for Arabidopsis) temperature differences have large effects on plant growth and development, disease resistance pathways and the circadian clock without activating temperature stress pathways. It is this developmental sensing and response to non-stressful temperatures that will be covered in this review. Recent advances have revealed key players in mediating temperature signals. The bHLH transcription factor PHYTOCHROME INTERACTING FACTOR4 (PIF4) has been shown to be a hub for multiple responses to warmer temperature in Arabidopsis, including flowering and hypocotyl elongation. Changes in chromatin state are involved in transmitting temperature signals to the transcriptome. Determining the precise mechanisms of temperature perception represents an exciting goal for the field. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Behavioral thermal tolerances of free-ranging rattlesnakes (Crotalus oreganus) during the summer foraging season.

PubMed

Putman, Breanna J; Clark, Rulon W

2017-04-01

Increasing temperature due to climate change is one of the greatest challenges for wildlife worldwide. Behavioral data on free-ranging individuals is necessary to determine at what temperatures animals modify activity as this would determine their capacity to continue to move, forage, and mate under altered thermal regimes. In particular, high temperatures could limit available surface activity time and time spent on fitness-related activities. Conversely, performance, such as feeding rate, can increase with temperature potentially having positive fitness effects. Here, we examine how the hunting behaviors of free-ranging Northern Pacific Rattlesnakes (Crotalus oreganus) associate with air temperature and body temperature. We continuously recorded snakes in the field using videography, capturing behaviors rarely considered in past studies such as movements in and out of refuge and strikes on prey. We found that as mean daily air temperature increased, hunting activity and the likelihood of hunting at night decreased, while the number of movements and distance moved per day increased. Snakes typically retreated to refuge before body temperatures reached 31°C. Body temperatures of snakes hunting on the surface were lower compared to temperatures of non-hunting snakes in refuge in the morning, while this relationship was inverted in the afternoon. Snake body size influenced the disparity of these temperatures. Finally, strike initiation and success occurred across a wide range of body temperatures, indicating hunting performance may not be strongly constrained by temperature. These results on the temperatures at which free-ranging rattlesnakes exhibit fitness-related behaviors could be valuable for understanding their vulnerabilities to future climates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Meteorology and the physical activity of the elderly: the Nakanojo Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Togo, Fumiharu; Watanabe, Eiji; Park, Hyuntae; Shephard, Roy J.; Aoyagi, Yukitoshi

2005-11-01

Seasonal changes in ambient temperature and day length are thought to modify habitual physical activity. However, relationships between such environmental factors and the daily physical activity of older populations remain unclear. The present study thus examined associations between meteorological variables and the number of steps taken per day by elderly Japanese. Continuous pedometer counts over a 450-day period were collected from 41 healthy subjects (age 71±4 years), none of whom engaged in any specific occupational activity or exercise programs. An electronic physical activity monitor was attached to a belt worn on the left side of the body throughout the day. Daily values for mean ambient temperature, duration of bright sunshine, mean wind speed, mean relative humidity, and precipitation were obtained from local meteorological stations. The day length was calculated from times of sunrise and sunset. Based on the entire group of 41 subjects (ensemble average), a subject’s step count per day decreased exponentially with increasing precipitation (r2=0.19, P<0.05). On days when precipitation was <1 mm, the step count increased with the mean ambient temperature over the range of 2 to 17°C, but decreased over the range 17 29°C. The daily step count also tended to increase with day length, but the regression coefficient of determination attributable to step count and mean ambient temperature (r2=0.32, P<0.05) exceeded that linking the step count and day length (r2=0.13, P<0.05). The influence of other meteorological factors was small (r2≤0.03) and of little practical significance. On days when precipitation is <1 mm, physical activity is associated more strongly with ambient temperature than with day length, duration of bright sunshine, wind speed, or relative humidity. Our findings have practical implications for health promotion efforts designed to increase the physical activity of elderly people consistently in the face of seasonal variations in environmental conditions.

The potential of different artificial neural network (ANN) techniques in daily global solar radiation modeling based on meteorological data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Behrang, M.A.; Assareh, E.; Ghanbarzadeh, A.

2010-08-15

The main objective of present study is to predict daily global solar radiation (GSR) on a horizontal surface, based on meteorological variables, using different artificial neural network (ANN) techniques. Daily mean air temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hours, evaporation, and wind speed values between 2002 and 2006 for Dezful city in Iran (32 16'N, 48 25'E), are used in this study. In order to consider the effect of each meteorological variable on daily GSR prediction, six following combinations of input variables are considered: (I)Day of the year, daily mean air temperature and relative humidity as inputs and daily GSR as output.more » (II)Day of the year, daily mean air temperature and sunshine hours as inputs and daily GSR as output. (III)Day of the year, daily mean air temperature, relative humidity and sunshine hours as inputs and daily GSR as output. (IV)Day of the year, daily mean air temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hours and evaporation as inputs and daily GSR as output. (V)Day of the year, daily mean air temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hours and wind speed as inputs and daily GSR as output. (VI)Day of the year, daily mean air temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hours, evaporation and wind speed as inputs and daily GSR as output. Multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis function (RBF) neural networks are applied for daily GSR modeling based on six proposed combinations. The measured data between 2002 and 2005 are used to train the neural networks while the data for 214 days from 2006 are used as testing data. The comparison of obtained results from ANNs and different conventional GSR prediction (CGSRP) models shows very good improvements (i.e. the predicted values of best ANN model (MLP-V) has a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) about 5.21% versus 10.02% for best CGSRP model (CGSRP 5)). (author)« less

Discriminating low frequency components from long range persistent fluctuations in daily atmospheric temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanfredi, M.; Simoniello, T.; Cuomo, V.; Macchiato, M.

2009-02-01

This study originated from recent results reported in literature, which support the existence of long-range (power-law) persistence in atmospheric temperature fluctuations on monthly and inter-annual scales. We investigated the results of Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) carried out on twenty-two historical daily time series recorded in Europe in order to evaluate the reliability of such findings in depth. More detailed inspections emphasized systematic deviations from power-law and high statistical confidence for functional form misspecification. Rigorous analyses did not support scale-free correlation as an operative concept for Climate modelling, as instead suggested in literature. In order to understand the physical implications of our results better, we designed a bivariate Markov process, parameterised on the basis of the atmospheric observational data by introducing a slow dummy variable. The time series generated by this model, analysed both in time and frequency domains, tallied with the real ones very well. They accounted for both the deceptive scaling found in literature and the correlation details enhanced by our analysis. Our results seem to evidence the presence of slow fluctuations from another climatic sub-system such as ocean, which inflates temperature variance up to several months. They advise more precise re-analyses of temperature time series before suggesting dynamical paradigms useful for Climate modelling and for the assessment of Climate Change.

Discriminating low frequency components from long range persistent fluctuations in daily atmospheric temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanfredi, M.; Simoniello, T.; Cuomo, V.; Macchiato, M.

2009-07-01

This study originated from recent results reported in literature, which support the existence of long-range (power-law) persistence in atmospheric temperature fluctuations on monthly and inter-annual scales. We investigated the results of Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) carried out on twenty-two historical daily time series recorded in Europe in order to evaluate the reliability of such findings in depth. More detailed inspections emphasized systematic deviations from power-law and high statistical confidence for functional form misspecification. Rigorous analyses did not support scale-free correlation as an operative concept for Climate modelling, as instead suggested in literature. In order to understand the physical implications of our results better, we designed a bivariate Markov process, parameterised on the basis of the atmospheric observational data by introducing a slow dummy variable. The time series generated by this model, analysed both in time and frequency domains, tallied with the real ones very well. They accounted for both the deceptive scaling found in literature and the correlation details enhanced by our analysis. Our results seem to evidence the presence of slow fluctuations from another climatic sub-system such as ocean, which inflates temperature variance up to several months. They advise more precise re-analyses of temperature time series before suggesting dynamical paradigms useful for Climate modelling and for the assessment of Climate Change.

Daily Weather and Children's Physical Activity Patterns.

PubMed

Remmers, Teun; Thijs, Carel; Timperio, Anna; Salmon, J O; Veitch, Jenny; Kremers, Stef P J; Ridgers, Nicola D

2017-05-01

Understanding how the weather affects physical activity (PA) may help in the design, analysis, and interpretation of future studies, especially when investigating PA across diverse meteorological settings and with long follow-up periods. The present longitudinal study first aims to examine the influence of daily weather elements on intraindividual PA patterns among primary school children across four seasons, reflecting day-to-day variation within each season. Second, we investigate whether the influence of weather elements differs by day of the week (weekdays vs weekends), gender, age, and body mass index. PA data were collected by ActiGraph accelerometers for 1 wk in each of four school terms that reflect each season in southeast Australia. PA data from 307 children (age range 8.7-12.8 yr) were matched to daily meteorological variables obtained from the Australian Government's Bureau of Meteorology (maximum temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, day length, and rainfall). Daily PA patterns and their association with weather elements were analyzed using multilevel linear mixed models. Temperature was the strongest predictor of moderate and vigorous PA, followed by solar radiation and humidity. The relation with temperature was curvilinear, showing optimum PA levels at temperatures between 20°C and 22°C. Associations between weather elements on PA did not differ by gender, child's age, or body mass index. This novel study focused on the influence of weather elements on intraindividual PA patterns in children. As weather influences cannot be controlled, knowledge of its effect on individual PA patterns may help in the design of future studies, interpretation of their results, and translation into PA promotion.

Instream habitat restoration and stream temperature reduction in a whirling disease-positive Spring Creek in the Blackfoot River Basin, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pierce, Ron; Podner, Craig; Marczak, Laurie B; Jones, Leslie A.

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic warming of stream temperature and the presence of exotic diseases such as whirling disease are both contemporary threats to coldwater salmonids across western North America. We examined stream temperature reduction over a 15-year prerestoration and postrestoration period and the severity of Myxobolus cerebralisinfection (agent of whirling disease) over a 7-year prerestoration and postrestoration period in Kleinschmidt Creek, a fully reconstructed spring creek in the Blackfoot River basin of western Montana. Stream restoration increased channel length by 36% and reduced the wetted surface area by 69% by narrowing and renaturalizing the channel. Following channel restoration, average maximum daily summer stream temperatures decreased from 15.7°C to 12.5°C, average daily temperature decreased from 11.2°C to 10.0°C, and the range of daily temperatures narrowed by 3.3°C. Despite large changes in channel morphology and reductions in summer stream temperature, the prevalence and severity of M. cerebralis infection for hatchery Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss remained high (98–100% test fish with grade > 3 infection) versus minimal for hatchery Brown Trout Salmo trutta (2% of test fish with grade-1 infection). This study shows channel renaturalization can reduce summer stream temperatures in small low-elevation, groundwater-dominated streams in the Blackfoot basin to levels more suitable to native trout. However, because of continuous high infections associated with groundwater-dominated systems, the restoration of Kleinschmidt Creek favors brown trout Salmo trutta given their innate resistance to the parasite and the higher relative susceptibility of other salmonids.

The association between diurnal temperature range and childhood bacillary dysentery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Li-ying; Zhao, Ke-fu; Cheng, Jian; Wang, Xu; Yang, Hui-hui; Li, Ke-sheng; Xu, Zhi-wei; Su, Hong

2016-02-01

Previous studies have found that mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures were associated with bacillary dysentery (BD). However, little is known about whether the within-day variation of temperature has any impact on bacillary dysentery. The current study aimed to identify the relationship between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and BD in Hefei, China. Daily data on BD counts among children aged 0-14 years from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2012 were retrieved from Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Daily data on ambient temperature and relative humidity covering the same period were collected from the Hefei Bureau of Meteorology. A Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used in the analysis after controlling the effects of season, long-term trends, mean temperature, and relative humidity. The results showed that there existed a statistically significant relationship between DTR and childhood BD. The DTR effect on childhood bacillary dysentery increased when DTR was over 8 °C. And it was greatest at 1-day lag, with an 8 % (95 % CI = 2.9-13.4 %) increase of BD cases per 5 °C increment of DTR. Male children and children aged 0-5 years appeared to be more vulnerable to the DTR effect. The data indicate that large DTR may increase the incidence of childhood BD. Caregivers and health practitioners should be made aware of the potential threat posed by large DTR. Therefore, DTR should be taken into consideration when making targeted health policies and programs to protect children from being harmed by climate impacts.

The association between diurnal temperature range and childhood bacillary dysentery.

PubMed

Wen, Li-ying; Zhao, Ke-fu; Cheng, Jian; Wang, Xu; Yang, Hui-hui; Li, Ke-sheng; Xu, Zhi-wei; Su, Hong

2016-02-01

Previous studies have found that mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures were associated with bacillary dysentery (BD). However, little is known about whether the within-day variation of temperature has any impact on bacillary dysentery. The current study aimed to identify the relationship between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and BD in Hefei, China. Daily data on BD counts among children aged 0-14 years from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2012 were retrieved from Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Daily data on ambient temperature and relative humidity covering the same period were collected from the Hefei Bureau of Meteorology. A Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used in the analysis after controlling the effects of season, long-term trends, mean temperature, and relative humidity. The results showed that there existed a statistically significant relationship between DTR and childhood BD. The DTR effect on childhood bacillary dysentery increased when DTR was over 8 °C. And it was greatest at 1-day lag, with an 8% (95% CI = 2.9-13.4%) increase of BD cases per 5 °C increment of DTR. Male children and children aged 0-5 years appeared to be more vulnerable to the DTR effect. The data indicate that large DTR may increase the incidence of childhood BD. Caregivers and health practitioners should be made aware of the potential threat posed by large DTR. Therefore, DTR should be taken into consideration when making targeted health policies and programs to protect children from being harmed by climate impacts.

Use of regional climate model output for hydrologic simulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, L.E.; Clark, M.P.; Wilby, R.L.; Gutowski, W.J.; Leavesley, G.H.; Pan, Z.; Arritt, R.W.; Takle, E.S.

2002-01-01

Daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature time series from a regional climate model (RegCM2) configured using the continental United States as a domain and run on a 52-km (approximately) spatial resolution were used as input to a distributed hydrologic model for one rainfall-dominated basin (Alapaha River at Statenville, Georgia) and three snowmelt-dominated basins (Animas River at Durango. Colorado; east fork of the Carson River near Gardnerville, Nevada: and Cle Elum River near Roslyn, Washington). For comparison purposes, spatially averaged daily datasets of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature were developed from measured data for each basin. These datasets included precipitation and temperature data for all stations (hereafter, All-Sta) located within the area of the RegCM2 output used for each basin, but excluded station data used to calibrate the hydrologic model. Both the RegCM2 output and All-Sta data capture the gross aspects of the seasonal cycles of precipitation and temperature. However, in all four basins, the RegCM2- and All-Sta-based simulations of runoff show little skill on a daily basis [Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) values range from 0.05 to 0.37 for RegCM2 and -0.08 to 0.65 for All-Sta]. When the precipitation and temperature biases are corrected in the RegCM2 output and All-Sta data (Bias-RegCM2 and Bias-All, respectively) the accuracy of the daily runoff simulations improve dramatically for the snowmelt-dominated basins (NS values range from 0.41 to 0.66 for RegCM2 and 0.60 to 0.76 for All-Sta). In the rainfall-dominated basin, runoff simulations based on the Bias-RegCM2 output show no skill (NS value of 0.09) whereas Bias-All simulated runoff improves (NS value improved from - 0.08 to 0.72). These results indicate that measured data at the coarse resolution of the RegCM2 output can be made appropriate for basin-scale modeling through bias correction (essentially a magnitude correction). However, RegCM2 output, even when bias corrected, does not contain the day-to-day variability present in the All-Sta dataset that is necessary for basin-scale modeling. Future work is warranted to identify the causes for systematic biases in RegCM2 simulations, develop methods to remove the biases, and improve RegCM2 simulations of daily variability in local climate.

Spawning characteristics of redband trout in a headwater stream in Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muhlfeld, Clint C.

2002-01-01

I investigated the spawning characteristics of redband trout Oncorhynchus mykiss gairdneri (a rainbow trout subspecies) during the spring of 1998 in Basin Creek, a third-order headwater stream located in the Kootenai River drainage in northwestern Montana. I examined the timing of spawning as related to discharge and water temperature and analyzed microhabitat selection of 30 completed redds in a low-gradient (0.5–1.5%) reach. Redband trout spawned as flow declined after peak runoff and as mean daily water temperature exceeded 6.0C and maximum daily temperature exceeded 7.0C. Redband trout began spawning on 6 June (mean daily discharge = 2.1 m3/s), 10 d after the peak discharge (8.7 m3/s) occurred. The last redd was completed on 24 June, when discharge was 1.5 m3/s. The mean total redd length was 53 cm (SD = 14; range = 31–91 cm), and the mean total area was 51 cm2 (SD = 8; range= 46– 76 cm2). Eighty percent of the redds were located in pool tailouts, 13% in runs, and 7% in riffles. Spawning redband trout selected redd sites based on substrate size and water depth but not water velocity. Fish selected substrate sizes of 2–6 mm, water depths of 20–30 cm, and water velocities of 40–70 cm/s. My results suggest that redband trout in a low-gradient, third-order mountain stream found suitable spawning habitat in pool tail-outs that contained abundant gravels.

Climate Extreme Events over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulygina, O.; Korshunova, N. N.; Razuvaev, V. N.; Groisman, P. Y.

2014-12-01

During the period of widespread instrumental observations in Northern Eurasia, the annual surface air temperature has increased by 1.5°C. Close to the north in the Arctic Ocean, the late summer sea ice extent has decreased by 40% providing a near-infinite source of water vapor for the dry Arctic atmosphere in the early cold season months. The contemporary sea ice changes are especially visible in the Eastern Hemisphere All these factors affect the change extreme events. Daily and sub-daily data of 940 stations to analyze variations in the space time distribution of extreme temperatures, precipitation, and wind over Russia were used. Changing in number of days with thaw over Russia was described. The total seasonal numbers of days, when daily surface air temperatures (wind, precipitation) were found to be above (below) selected thresholds, were used as indices of climate extremes. Changing in difference between maximum and minimum temperature (DTR) may produce a variety of effects on biological systems. All values falling within the intervals ranged from the lowest percentile to the 5th percentile and from the 95th percentile to the highest percentile for the time period of interest were considered as daily extremes. The number of days, N, when daily temperatures (wind, precipitation, DTR) were within the above mentioned intervals, was determined for the seasons of each year. Linear trends in the number of days were calculated for each station and for quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Regional analysis of extreme events was carried out using quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Maps (climatology, trends) are presented mostly for visualization purposes. Differences in regional characteristics of extreme events are accounted for over a large extent of the Russian territory and variety of its physical and geographical conditions. The number of days with maximum temperatures higher than the 95% percentile has increased in most of Russia and decreased in Siberia in spring and autumn. Reducing the number of days with extremely low air temperatures dominated in all seasons. At the same time, the number of days with abnormally low air temperatures has increased in Middle Volga region and south of Western Siberia. In most parts of European Russia observed increase in the number of days with heavy snowfalls.

Disaggregating from daily to sub-daily rainfall under a future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westra, S.; Evans, J.; Mehrotra, R.; Sharma, A.

2012-04-01

We describe an algorithm for disaggregating daily rainfall into sub-daily rainfall 'fragments' (continuous fine-resolution rainfall sequences whose total depth sums to the daily rainfall amount) under a future, warmer climate. The basis of the algorithm is re-sample sub-daily fragments from the historical record conditional on the total daily rainfall amount and a range of atmospheric predictors representative of the future climate. The logic is that as the atmosphere warms, future rainfall patterns will be more reflective of historical rainfall patterns which occurred on warmer days at the same location, or at locations which have an atmospheric profile more reflective of expected future conditions. When looking at the scaling from daily to sub-daily rainfall over the historical record, it was found that the relationship varied significantly by season and by location, with rainfall patterns on warmer seasons or at warmer locations typically showing more intense rain falling over shorter periods compared with cooler seasons and stations. Importantly, by regressing against atmospheric covariates such as temperature this effect was almost entirely eliminated, providing a basis for suggesting the approach may be valid when extrapolating sub-daily sequences to a future climate. The method of fragments algorithm was then applied to nine stations around Australia, and showed that when holding the total daily rainfall constant, the maximum intensity of a short duration (6 minute) rainfall increased by between 4.1% and 13.4% per degree change in temperature for the maximum six minute burst, between 3.1% and 6.8% for the maximum one hour burst, and between 1.5% and 3.5% for the fraction of the day with no rainfall. This highlights that a large proportion of the change to the distribution of precipitation in the future is likely to occur at sub-daily timescales, with significant implications for many hydrological systems.

A comparison of climatological observing windows and their impact on detecting daily temperature extrema

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Žaknić-Ćatović, Ana; Gough, William A.

2018-04-01

Climatological observing window (COW) is defined as a time frame over which continuous or extreme air temperature measurements are collected. A 24-h time interval, ending at 00UTC or shifted to end at 06UTC, has been associated with difficulties in characterizing daily temperature extrema. A fixed 24-h COW used to obtain the temperature minima leads to potential misidentification due to fragmentation of "nighttime" into two subsequent nighttime periods due to the time discretization interval. The correct identification of air temperature extrema is achievable using a COW that identifies daily minimum over a single nighttime period and maximum over a single daytime period, as determined by sunrise and sunset. Due to a common absence of hourly air temperature observations, the accuracy of the mean temperature estimation is dependent on the accuracy of determination of diurnal air temperature extrema. Qualitative and quantitative criteria were used to examine the impact of the COW on detecting daily air temperature extrema. The timing of the 24-h observing window occasionally affects the determination of daily extrema through a mischaracterization of the diurnal minima and by extension can lead to errors in determining daily mean temperature. Hourly air temperature data for the time period from year 1987 to 2014, obtained from Toronto Buttonville Municipal Airport weather station, were used in analysis of COW impacts on detection of daily temperature extrema and calculation of annual temperature averages based on such extrema.

Germination responses to current and future temperatures of four seeder shrubs across a latitudinal gradient in western Iberia.

PubMed

Chamorro, Daniel; Luna, Belén; Moreno, José M

2017-01-01

Species differ in their temperature germination niche. Populations of a species may similarly differ across the distribution range of the species. Anticipating the impacts of climate variability and change requires understanding the differential sensitivity to germination temperature among and within species. Here we studied the germination responses of four hard-seeded Cistaceae seeders to a range of current and future temperatures. Seeds were collected at sites across the Iberian Peninsula and exposed or not exposed to a heat shock to break dormancy, then set to germinate under four temperature regimes. Temperatures were varied daily and seasonally, simulating the temperature range across the gradient, plus an increased temperature simulating future climate. Time to germination onset and cumulative germination at the end of each season were analyzed for the effects of temperature treatments, seasons, and local climate (temperature of the germination period, T gp ) at each site. T gp was a significant covariate of germination in all species but Cistus populifolius. Temperature treatments significantly affected Cistus ladanifer, C. salviifolius, and Halimium ocymoides. Germination occurred in simulated autumn conditions, with little germination occurring at later seasons, except in unheated seeds of H. ocymoides. Exposure to a heat shock changed the sensitivity to temperature treatments and the relationships with T gp . Germination responses to temperature differ not only among species but also within species across their latitudinal range. The responses were idiosyncratic and related to the local climate of the population. This germination variability complicates generalizing the impacts of climate variability and climate change. © 2017 Botanical Society of America.

Physicochemical and microbiological stability of azathioprine in InOrpha suspending agent studied under various conditions.

PubMed

Amin, Alexandre; Bourget, Philippe; Vidal, Fabrice; Cartier, François; Beauvais, Raphaëlle; Afonso, Veronica Do Nascimento

2015-01-01

Azathioprine is an antineoplastic antimetabolite drug currently used as an immunosuppressive agent after organ transplantation and for several dysimmunitary diseases. The usual daily dose ranges from 1 to 5 mg/kg orally. Azathioprine is marketed in France under the trade name Imurel in tablet form for oral administration that contains either 25 mg or 50 mg of the active ingredient. This Galenic formulation is not suitable for pediatric use and often requires a grinding operation or a dose fractionation to facilitate administration. In addition to a potential risk of imprecision in the administered dose, tablet grinding might unnecessarily expose nurses and families to a toxic compound. To overcome this problem, the objective of this study was to develop and evaluate the physicochemical and microbiological stabilities of azathioprine in a sugar-free, alcohol-free, and paraben-free InOrpha suspending agent. The studied samples were formulated into a 10-mg/mL suspension and stored in 24 plastic bottles of 60 mL at two different temperature conditions (between 2 degrees C to 8 degrees C and room temperature). Two series of 12 samples were tested for physicochemical stability using high-performance liquid chromatography as well as for a microbiological status for 35 days (daily opening of the bottles from day 0 of compounding) and for 56 days, upon daily flask opening (first opening at day 28 from compounding and daily opening for 28 consecutive days). The high-performance liquid chromatography method developed is linear, accurate, precise, and robust. In addition, a forced degradation study validated the selectivity and the specificity requirements of the method validated as stability indicating. At room temperature storage, high-performance liquid chromatography analysis showed that tested samples had concentrations ranging from 90% to 110% of the initial concentration throughout the course of the study. Microbiological status remained stable during the 56 days of investigation. Based on the data collected, the study led to the development of a new Galenic formulation of azathioprine that is suitable for pediatric use and can be safely stored at room temperature for 28 days (before and after opening for a maximum of 56 consecutive days).

Preliminary estimation of the realistic optimum temperature for vegetation growth in China.

PubMed

Cui, Yaoping

2013-07-01

The estimation of optimum temperature of vegetation growth is very useful for a wide range of applications such as agriculture and climate change studies. Thermal conditions substantially affect vegetation growth. In this study, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and daily temperature data set from 1982 to 2006 for China were used to examine optimum temperature of vegetation growth. Based on a simple analysis of ecological amplitude and Shelford's law of tolerance, a scientific framework for calculating the optimum temperature was constructed. The optimum temperature range and referenced optimum temperature (ROT) of terrestrial vegetation were obtained and explored over different eco-geographical regions of China. The results showed that the relationship between NDVI and air temperature was significant over almost all of China, indicating that terrestrial vegetation growth was closely related to thermal conditions. ROTs were different in various regions. The lowest ROT, about 7.0 °C, occurred in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, while the highest ROT, more than 22.0 °C, occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Southern China region.

Preliminary Estimation of the Realistic Optimum Temperature for Vegetation Growth in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Yaoping

2013-07-01

The estimation of optimum temperature of vegetation growth is very useful for a wide range of applications such as agriculture and climate change studies. Thermal conditions substantially affect vegetation growth. In this study, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and daily temperature data set from 1982 to 2006 for China were used to examine optimum temperature of vegetation growth. Based on a simple analysis of ecological amplitude and Shelford's law of tolerance, a scientific framework for calculating the optimum temperature was constructed. The optimum temperature range and referenced optimum temperature (ROT) of terrestrial vegetation were obtained and explored over different eco-geographical regions of China. The results showed that the relationship between NDVI and air temperature was significant over almost all of China, indicating that terrestrial vegetation growth was closely related to thermal conditions. ROTs were different in various regions. The lowest ROT, about 7.0 °C, occurred in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, while the highest ROT, more than 22.0 °C, occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Southern China region.

Body temperature, thermoregulatory behaviour and pelt characteristics of three colour morphs of springbok (Antidorcas marsupialis).

PubMed

Hetem, Robyn S; de Witt, Brenda A; Fick, Linda G; Fuller, Andrea; Kerley, Graham I H; Meyer, Leith C R; Mitchell, Duncan; Maloney, Shane K

2009-03-01

Using intra-abdominal miniature data loggers, we measured core body temperature in female springbok (Antidorcas marsupialis) of three colour morphs (black, normal and white), free-living in the Karoo, South Africa, for one year. During winter, white springbok displayed lower daily minimum body temperatures (37.4+/-0.5 degrees C), than both black (38.1+/-0.3 degrees C) and normal (38.0+/-0.6 degrees C) springbok. During spring, black springbok displayed higher daily maximum body temperatures (40.7+/-0.1 degrees C) than both white (40.2+/-0.2 degrees C) and normal (40.2+/-0.2 degrees C) springbok. These high maximum body temperatures were associated with larger daily amplitudes of nychthemeral rhythm of body temperature (2.0+/-0.2 degrees C), than that of white (1.6+/-0.1 degrees C) and normal (1.7+/-0.2 degrees C) springbok. Biophysical properties of sample springbok pelts were consistent with these patterns, as the black springbok pelt showed lower reflectance in the visible spectral range, and higher heat load from simulated solar radiation, than did the pelts of the other two springbok. Black springbok had lower diurnal activity in winter, consistent with them having to forage less because their metabolic cost of homeothermy was lower, but were disadvantaged in hot periods. White springbok, by contrast, were more protected from solar heat load, but potentially less able to meet the energy cost of homeothermy in winter. Thus energy considerations may underlie the rarity of the springbok colour morphs.

A comparison of daily water use estimates derived from constant-heat sap-flow probe values and gravimetric measurements in pot-grown saplings.

PubMed

McCulloh, Katherine A; Winter, Klaus; Meinzer, Frederick C; Garcia, Milton; Aranda, Jorge; Lachenbruch, Barbara

2007-09-01

Use of Granier-style heat dissipation sensors to measure sap flow is common in plant physiology, ecology and hydrology. There has been concern that any change to the original Granier design invalidates the empirical relationship between sap flux density and the temperature difference between the probes. Here, we compared daily water use estimates from gravimetric measurements with values from variable length heat dissipation sensors, which are a relatively new design. Values recorded during a one-week period were compared for three large pot-grown saplings of each of the tropical trees Pseudobombax septenatum (Jacq.) Dugand and Calophyllum longifolium Willd. For five of the six individuals, P values from paired t-tests comparing the two methods ranged from 0.12 to 0.43 and differences in estimates of total daily water use over the week of the experiment averaged < 3%. In one P. septenatum sapling, the sap flow sensors underestimated water use relative to the gravimetric measurements. This discrepancy could have been associated with naturally occurring gradients in temperature that reduced the difference in temperature between the probes, which would have caused the sensor method to underestimate water use. Our results indicate that substitution of variable length heat dissipation probes for probes of the original Granier design did not invalidate the empirical relationship determined by Granier between sap flux density and the temperature difference between probes.

Describing temporal variability of the mean Estonian precipitation series in climate time scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, P.; Kärner, O.

2009-04-01

Applicability of the random walk type models to represent the temporal variability of various atmospheric temperature series has been successfully demonstrated recently (e.g. Kärner, 2002). Main problem in the temperature modeling is connected to the scale break in the generally self similar air temperature anomaly series (Kärner, 2005). The break separates short-range strong non-stationarity from nearly stationary longer range variability region. This is an indication of the fact that several geophysical time series show a short-range non-stationary behaviour and a stationary behaviour in longer range (Davis et al., 1996). In order to model series like that the choice of time step appears to be crucial. To characterize the long-range variability we can neglect the short-range non-stationary fluctuations, provided that we are able to model properly the long-range tendencies. The structure function (Monin and Yaglom, 1975) was used to determine an approximate segregation line between the short and the long scale in terms of modeling. The longer scale can be called climate one, because such models are applicable in scales over some decades. In order to get rid of the short-range fluctuations in daily series the variability can be examined using sufficiently long time step. In the present paper, we show that the same philosophy is useful to find a model to represent a climate-scale temporal variability of the Estonian daily mean precipitation amount series over 45 years (1961-2005). Temporal variability of the obtained daily time series is examined by means of an autoregressive and integrated moving average (ARIMA) family model of the type (0,1,1). This model is applicable for daily precipitation simulating if to select an appropriate time step that enables us to neglet the short-range non-stationary fluctuations. A considerably longer time step than one day (30 days) is used in the current paper to model the precipitation time series variability. Each ARIMA (0,1,1) model can be interpreted to be consisting of random walk in a noisy environment (Box and Jenkins, 1976). The fitted model appears to be weakly non-stationary, that gives us the possibility to use stationary approximation if only the noise component from that sum of white noise and random walk is exploited. We get a convenient routine to generate a stationary precipitation climatology with a reasonable accuracy, since the noise component variance is much larger than the dispersion of the random walk generator. This interpretation emphasizes dominating role of a random component in the precipitation series. The result is understandable due to a small territory of Estonia that is situated in the mid-latitude cyclone track. References Box, J.E.P. and G. Jenkins 1976: Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control (revised edn.), Holden Day San Francisco, CA, 575 pp. Davis, A., Marshak, A., Wiscombe, W. and R. Cahalan 1996: Multifractal characterizations of intermittency in nonstationary geophysical signals and fields.in G. Trevino et al. (eds) Current Topics in Nonsstationarity Analysis. World-Scientific, Singapore, 97-158. Kärner, O. 2002: On nonstationarity and antipersistency in global temperature series. J. Geophys. Res. D107; doi:10.1029/2001JD002024. Kärner, O. 2005: Some examples on negative feedback in the Earth climate system. Centr. European J. Phys. 3; 190-208. Monin, A.S. and A.M. Yaglom 1975: Statistical Fluid Mechanics, Vol 2. Mechanics of Turbulence , MIT Press Boston Mass, 886 pp.

Large deviation probabilities for correlated Gaussian stochastic processes and daily temperature anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massah, Mozhdeh; Kantz, Holger

2016-04-01

As we have one and only one earth and no replicas, climate characteristics are usually computed as time averages from a single time series. For understanding climate variability, it is essential to understand how close a single time average will typically be to an ensemble average. To answer this question, we study large deviation probabilities (LDP) of stochastic processes and characterize them by their dependence on the time window. In contrast to iid variables for which there exists an analytical expression for the rate function, the correlated variables such as auto-regressive (short memory) and auto-regressive fractionally integrated moving average (long memory) processes, have not an analytical LDP. We study LDP for these processes, in order to see how correlation affects this probability in comparison to iid data. Although short range correlations lead to a simple correction of sample size, long range correlations lead to a sub-exponential decay of LDP and hence to a very slow convergence of time averages. This effect is demonstrated for a 120 year long time series of daily temperature anomalies measured in Potsdam (Germany).

Thermoperiodism and the thermal environment of the pitcher-plant mosquito, Wyeomyia smithii.

PubMed

Bradshaw, William E

1980-07-01

Wyeomyia smithii Coq. (Diptera: Culicidae) completes its pre-adult development only within leaves of the purple pitcher-plant, Sarracenia purpurea. Between early June and mid-October in northern New York State, the daily temperature cycle in leaves lagged the photic cycle by 0-6 h and exhibited a mean daily amplitude of 14.5°C.Thermoperiod acts as a potent zeitgeber. At constant temperatures, W. smithii respond to the shorter dark period of a symmetric skeleton photoperiod as "day". However, a superimposed thermoperiod having the thermophase coincident with the longer dark period overrides this tendancy. Thermoperiods may also perturb the photoperiodic clock but W. smithii compensate for the range of phase relationships between the photic and thermal cycles observed in nature.Compared with constant temperatures, W. smithii develop more slowly but exhibit a 7-fold increase in fecundity when reared under fluctuating temperatures. The net result is a 50% greater capacity for increase in the latter regimen. These results suggest that maximum fitness in W. smithii is achieved through the action of, and not despite, thermal heterogeneity.

Glacier Melt Detection in Complex Terrain Using New AMSR-E Calibrated Enhanced Daily EASE-Grid 2.0 Brightness Temperature (CETB) Earth System Data Record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramage, J. M.; Brodzik, M. J.; Hardman, M.

2016-12-01

Passive microwave (PM) 18 GHz and 36 GHz horizontally- and vertically-polarized brightness temperatures (Tb) channels from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) have been important sources of information about snow melt status in glacial environments, particularly at high latitudes. PM data are sensitive to the changes in near-surface liquid water that accompany melt onset, melt intensification, and refreezing. Overpasses are frequent enough that in most areas multiple (2-8) observations per day are possible, yielding the potential for determining the dynamic state of the snow pack during transition seasons. AMSR-E Tb data have been used effectively to determine melt onset and melt intensification using daily Tb and diurnal amplitude variation (DAV) thresholds. Due to mixed pixels in historically coarse spatial resolution Tb data, melt analysis has been impractical in ice-marginal zones where pixels may be only fractionally snow/ice covered, and in areas where the glacier is near large bodies of water: even small regions of open water in a pixel severely impact the microwave signal. We use the new enhanced-resolution Calibrated Passive Microwave Daily EASE-Grid 2.0 Brightness Temperature (CETB) Earth System Data Record product's twice daily obserations to test and update existing snow melt algorithms by determining appropriate melt thresholds for both Tb and DAV for the CETB 18 and 36 GHz channels. We use the enhanced resolution data to evaluate melt characteristics along glacier margins and melt transition zones during the melt seasons in locations spanning a wide range of melt scenarios, including the Patagonian Andes, the Alaskan Coast Range, and the Russian High Arctic icecaps. We quantify how improvement of spatial resolution from the original 12.5 - 25 km-scale pixels to the enhanced resolution of 3.125 - 6.25 km improves the ability to evaluate melt timing across boundaries and transition zones in diverse glacial environments.

Design of a wearable bio-patch for monitoring patient's temperature.

PubMed

Vicente, Jose M; Avila-Navarro, Ernesto; Juan, Carlos G; Garcia, Nicolas; Sabater-Navarro, Jose M

2016-08-01

New communication technologies allow us developing useful and more practical medical applications, in particular for ambulatory monitoring. NFC communication has the advantages of low powering and low influence range area, what makes this technology suitable for health applications. This work presents an explanation of the design process of planar NFC antennas in a wearable biopatch. The problem of optimizing the communication distance is addressed. Design of a biopatch for continuous temperature monitoring and experimental results obtained wearing this biopatch during daily activities are presented.

Modeling Water Temperature in the Yakima River, Washington, from Roza Diversion Dam to Prosser Dam, 2005-06

USGS Publications Warehouse

Voss, Frank D.; Curran, Christopher A.; Mastin, Mark C.

2008-01-01

A mechanistic water-temperature model was constructed by the U.S. Geological Survey for use by the Bureau of Reclamation for studying the effect of potential water management decisions on water temperature in the Yakima River between Roza and Prosser, Washington. Flow and water temperature data for model input were obtained from the Bureau of Reclamation Hydromet database and from measurements collected by the U.S. Geological Survey during field trips in autumn 2005. Shading data for the model were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in autumn 2006. The model was calibrated with data collected from April 1 through October 31, 2005, and tested with data collected from April 1 through October 31, 2006. Sensitivity analysis results showed that for the parameters tested, daily maximum water temperature was most sensitive to changes in air temperature and solar radiation. Root mean squared error for the five sites used for model calibration ranged from 1.3 to 1.9 degrees Celsius (?C) and mean error ranged from ?1.3 to 1.6?C. The root mean squared error for the five sites used for testing simulation ranged from 1.6 to 2.2?C and mean error ranged from 0.1 to 1.3?C. The accuracy of the stream temperatures estimated by the model is limited by four errors (model error, data error, parameter error, and user error).

How Warm is Mars?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

This graph shows the predicted daily change in the atmospheric temperature one meter above the surface of Mars at Gusev Crater, the Mars Exploration Rover Spirit's landing site. The blue curve denotes predicted values for sol 1 (the first day of Spirit's mission) and the yellow for sol 100 (100 days into the mission). The light blue symbols represent temperatures for a total atmospheric dust abundance of 0.7 visible optical depth units, and the darker blue symbols for a total atmospheric dust abundance of 1.0 visible optical depth units. Scientists use this data to ensure that Spirit stays within the right temperature range.

Calculating correlated color temperatures across the entire gamut of daylight and skylight chromaticities.

PubMed

Hernández-Andrés, J; Lee, R L; Romero, J

1999-09-20

Natural outdoor illumination daily undergoes large changes in its correlated color temperature (CCT), yet existing equations for calculating CCT from chromaticity coordinates span only part of this range. To improve both the gamut and accuracy of these CCT calculations, we use chromaticities calculated from our measurements of nearly 7000 daylight and skylight spectra to test an equation that accurately maps CIE 1931 chromaticities x and y into CCT. We extend the work of McCamy [Color Res. Appl. 12, 285-287 (1992)] by using a chromaticity epicenter for CCT and the inverse slope of the line that connects it to x and y. With two epicenters for different CCT ranges, our simple equation is accurate across wide chromaticity and CCT ranges (3000-10(6) K) spanned by daylight and skylight.

Effect of season and ambient temperature on outcome of guaiac-based faecal occult blood tests performed for colorectal cancer screening.

PubMed

Hunter, J P; Saratzis, A; Froggatt, P; Harmston, C

2012-09-01

Guaiac-based faecal occult blood tests (gFOBTs) are used in the colorectal cancer screening programme. Recent data suggested that the immunological faecal occult blood test illustrated a variation in positivity according to season and ambient temperature. Our aim was to assess the effect of season and ambient temperature on the positivity rates of the gFOBT during pilot screening for colorectal cancer. Data from the first year of round 1 of the pilot screening programme in Coventry and Warwickshire were analysed. Patients with positive and negative gFOBT samples were included. Patients with spoilt samples or incomplete data were excluded. Of the total of 59513 patients, 30311 were men and 29202 women. Mean age was 56 years. Daily temperature data were provided by the meteorological office. Median exposure of the gFOBT test card was 6 days (range 1-17). Median daily maximum temperature was 14°C. Spring and summer illustrated significantly decreased positivity rates compared with autumn and winter (Pearson's chi-squared test, P<0.001). Mean daily maximum temperature for the test card exposure showed no significant difference in positivity rates (P=0.53). Subgroup analysis revealed a significant reduction in positive samples in the >25°C subgroup (P=0.045). There is a seasonal variation in positivity rates of gFOBTs with increased positivity in spring and summer months. There is no difference in positivity rates in relation to ambient temperature except in subgroup analysis where there is a significant reduction in positivity rates above 25°C. © 2011 The Authors. Colorectal Disease © 2011 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

A globally calibrated scheme for generating daily meteorology from monthly statistics: Global-WGEN (GWGEN) v1.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sommer, Philipp S.; Kaplan, Jed O.

2017-10-01

While a wide range of Earth system processes occur at daily and even subdaily timescales, many global vegetation and other terrestrial dynamics models historically used monthly meteorological forcing both to reduce computational demand and because global datasets were lacking. Recently, dynamic land surface modeling has moved towards resolving daily and subdaily processes, and global datasets containing daily and subdaily meteorology have become available. These meteorological datasets, however, cover only the instrumental era of the last approximately 120 years at best, are subject to considerable uncertainty, and represent extremely large data files with associated computational costs of data input/output and file transfer. For periods before the recent past or in the future, global meteorological forcing can be provided by climate model output, but the quality of these data at high temporal resolution is low, particularly for daily precipitation frequency and amount. Here, we present GWGEN, a globally applicable statistical weather generator for the temporal downscaling of monthly climatology to daily meteorology. Our weather generator is parameterized using a global meteorological database and simulates daily values of five common variables: minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, and wind speed. GWGEN is lightweight, modular, and requires a minimal set of monthly mean variables as input. The weather generator may be used in a range of applications, for example, in global vegetation, crop, soil erosion, or hydrological models. While GWGEN does not currently perform spatially autocorrelated multi-point downscaling of daily weather, this additional functionality could be implemented in future versions.

Daily and seasonal variability of pH, dissolved oxygen, temperature, and specific conductance in the Colorado River between the forebay of Glen Canyon, Dam and Lees Ferry, northeastern Arizona, 1998-99

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flynn, Marilyn E.; Hart, Robert J.; Marzolf, G. Richard; Bowser, Carl J.

2001-01-01

The productivity of the trout fishery in the tailwater reach of the Colorado River downstream from Glen Canyon Dam depends on the productivity of lower trophic levels. Photosynthesis and respiration are basic biological processes that control productivity and alter pH and oxygen concentration. During 1998?99, data were collected to aid in the documentation of short- and long-term trends in these basic ecosystem processes in the Glen Canyon reach. Dissolved-oxygen, temperature, and specific-conductance profile data were collected monthly in the forebay of Glen Canyon Dam to document the status of water chemistry in the reservoir. In addition, pH, dissolved-oxygen, temperature, and specific-conductance data were collected at five sites in the Colorado River tailwater of Glen Canyon Dam to document the daily, seasonal, and longitudinal range of variation in water chemistry that could occur annually within the Glen Canyon reach.

Short-term changes in thermal perception associated with heatwave conditions in Melbourne, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, Cho Kwong Charlie; Gallant, Ailie J. E.; Tapper, Nigel J.

2018-05-01

Variations in human thermal perception have been described on timescales from minutes to seasons. However, the effect of weather-related thermal extremes on inter-daily changes to outdoor thermal perception has not been well characterised. This study used human thermal comfort data from an outdoor botanic garden in sub-urban Melbourne, Australia as a case study. We examined inter-daily variations in local visitors' thermal perception before (11-12 January 2014) and after (18-19 January 2014) a severe heatwave from 14 to 17 January 2014, when daily maximum temperature exceeded 41 °C for 4 consecutive days. We compared thermal comfort survey results (pre-heatwave: n = 342, post-heatwave: n = 294) with air temperature and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) measurements. Even though the days preceding and following the heatwave had a similar range in temperature (19-25 °C) and UTCI (26-32 °C), the visitors felt cooler in the days following the heatwave (i.e. lower thermal sensation votes). In the 2 days following the heatwave, visitors also wore less clothing compared with before the heatwave. Our results show that the thermal perception of visitors changed significantly following their exposure to the heatwave, even after controlling for changes in clothing choices and the ages of survey participants. Psychological adaptation to heat (such as thermal history and expectation) might be one of the possible explanations for this inter-daily variability of local visitors' thermal perception.

Selected meteorological data for an arid site near Beatty, Nye County, Nevada, calendar year 1989

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, J.L.; Andraski, Brian J.

1992-01-01

Selected meteorological data were collected at a study site adjacent to a low-level radioactive-waste burial facility near Beatty, Nevada, for calendar year 1989. Data were collected in support of ongoing studies to estimate the potential for downward movement of radionuclides into the unsaturated sediments beneath waste-burial trenches at the facility. The data include air temperature, relative humidity, vapor pressure, incident solar radiation, windspeed, wind direction, and precipitation. The data are summarized in tables and graphs.Instrumentation used at the site is discussed. The discussion includes the type, reported accuracy, and mounting height of each sensor.In 1989, the hourly averaged air temperature ranged from -14.5 degrees Celsius, in February, to 46.0 degrees Celsius, in July. Hourly averaged relative humidity ranged from less than 12 percent to over 80 percent. Hourly vapor pressures ranged from 0.06 to 1.71 kilopascals. Daily maximum incident solar radiation values ranged from 149 to 1,084 watts per square meter. Daily mean windspeed ranged from less than 1 to 8.6 meters per second. Monthly wind direction patterns are shown in a series of diagrams in which wind direction is summed over 10-degree arcs from hourly averaged data. Wind direction was primarily from the northwest in fall, winter, and spring and varied from southeast, southwest, or northwest during the summer. Total precipitation for 1989 was 14.0 millimeters, with almost 90 percent occurring from January through May.

New climate change scenarios for the Netherlands.

PubMed

van den Hurk, B; Tank, A K; Lenderink, G; Ulden, A van; Oldenborgh, G J van; Katsman, C; Brink, H van den; Keller, F; Bessembinder, J; Burgers, G; Komen, G; Hazeleger, W; Drijfhout, S

2007-01-01

A new set of climate change scenarios for 2050 for the Netherlands was produced recently. The scenarios span a wide range of possible future climate conditions, and include climate variables that are of interest to a broad user community. The scenario values are constructed by combining output from an ensemble of recent General Climate Model (GCM) simulations, Regional Climate Model (RCM) output, meteorological observations and a touch of expert judgment. For temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and wind four scenarios are constructed, encompassing ranges of both global mean temperature rise in 2050 and the strength of the response of the dominant atmospheric circulation in the area of interest to global warming. For this particular area, wintertime precipitation is seen to increase between 3.5 and 7% per degree global warming, but mean summertime precipitation shows opposite signs depending on the assumed response of the circulation regime. Annual maximum daily mean wind speed shows small changes compared to the observed (natural) variability of this variable. Sea level rise in the North Sea in 2100 ranges between 35 and 85 cm. Preliminary assessment of the impact of the new scenarios on water management and coastal defence policies indicate that particularly dry summer scenarios and increased intensity of extreme daily precipitation deserves additional attention in the near future.

Early Life-Stage Responses of a Eurythemal Estuarine Fish, Mummichog (Fundulus hetereoclitus) to Fixed and Fluctuating Thermal Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaifer, J.

2016-02-01

The mummichog (Fundulus hetereoclitus) is an intertidal spawning fish that ranges from the Gulf of St. Lawrence to northeastern Florida. A notoriously hardy species, adults can tolerate a wide range of temperature typical of inshore, estuarine waters. This experiment assessed how a wide range of constant and fluctuating temperatures affect the survival, development, and condition of embryos and young larvae. Captive adults were provided nightly with spawning substrates that were inspected each morning for fertilized eggs. Young ( 8 hr post-fertilization) embryos (N = 25 per population) were assigned to either one of a wide range of constant temperatures (8 to 34 °C) generated by a thermal gradient block (TGB), or to one of 10 daily oscillating temperature regimes that spanned the TGB's mid temperature (21 °C). Water was changed and populations inspected for mortalities and hatching at 12-hr intervals. Hatch dates and mortalities were recorded, and larvae were either anesthetized and measured for size by analyzing digital images, or evaluated for persistence in a food-free environment. Mummichog embryos withstood all but the coldest constant regimes and the entire range of fluctuating ones although age at hatching varied substantially within and among experimental populations. Embryos incubated at warmer temperatures hatched out earlier and at somewhat smaller sizes than those experiencing cooler temperatures. Temperatures experienced by embryos had an inverse effect on persistence of larvae relying on yolk nutrition alone. Mummichog exhibited an especially plastic response to thermal challenges which reflects the highly variable nursery habitat used by this species.

Diurnal Temperature Variations Affect Development of a Herbivorous Arthropod Pest and its Predators

PubMed Central

Vangansbeke, Dominiek; Audenaert, Joachim; Nguyen, Duc Tung; Verhoeven, Ruth; Gobin, Bruno; Tirry, Luc; De Clercq, Patrick

2015-01-01

The impact of daily temperature variations on arthropod life history remains woefully understudied compared to the large body of research that has been carried out on the effects of constant temperatures. However, diurnal varying temperature regimes more commonly represent the environment in which most organisms thrive. Such varying temperature regimes have been demonstrated to substantially affect development and reproduction of ectothermic organisms, generally in accordance with Jensen’s inequality. In the present study we evaluated the impact of temperature alternations at 4 amplitudes (DTR0, +5, +10 and +15°C) on the developmental rate of the predatory mites Phytoseiulus persimilis Athias-Henriot and Neoseiulus californicus McGregor (Acari: Phytoseiidae) and their natural prey, the two-spotted spider mite Tetranychus urticae Koch (Acari: Tetranychidae). We have modelled their developmental rates as a function of temperature using both linear and nonlinear models. Diurnally alternating temperatures resulted in a faster development in the lower temperature range as compared to their corresponding mean constant temperatures, whereas the opposite was observed in the higher temperature range. Our results indicate that Jensen’s inequality does not suffice to fully explain the differences in developmental rates at constant and alternating temperatures, suggesting additional physiological responses play a role. It is concluded that diurnal temperature range should not be ignored and should be incorporated in predictive models on the phenology of arthropod pests and their natural enemies and their performance in biological control programmes. PMID:25874697

Part 2. Association of daily mortality with ambient air pollution, and effect modification by extremely high temperature in Wuhan, China.

PubMed

Qian, Zhengmin; He, Qingci; Lin, Hung-Mo; Kong, Lingli; Zhou, Dunjin; Liang, Shengwen; Zhu, Zhichao; Liao, Duanping; Liu, Wenshan; Bentley, Christy M; Dan, Jijun; Wang, Beiwei; Yang, Niannian; Xu, Shuangqing; Gong, Jie; Wei, Hongming; Sun, Huilin; Qin, Zudian

2010-11-01

Fewer studies have been published on the association between daily mortality and ambient air pollution in Asia than in the United States and Europe. This study was undertaken in Wuhan, China, to investigate the acute effects of air pollution on mortality with an emphasis on particulate matter (PM*). There were three primary aims: (1) to examine the associations of daily mortality due to all natural causes and daily cause-specific mortality (cardiovascular [CVD], stroke, cardiac [CARD], respiratory [RD], cardiopulmonary [CP], and non-cardiopulmonary [non-CP] causes) with daily mean concentrations (microg/m3) of PM with an aerodynamic diameter--10 pm (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), or ozone (O3); (2) to investigate the effect modification of extremely high temperature on the association between air pollution and daily mortality due to all natural causes and daily cause-specific mortality; and (3) to assess the uncertainty of effect estimates caused by the change in International Classification of Disease (ICD) coding of mortality data from Revision 9 (ICD-9) to Revision 10 (ICD-10) code. Wuhan is called an "oven city" in China because of its extremely hot summers (the average daily temperature in July is 37.2 degrees C and maximum daily temperature often exceeds 40 degrees C). Approximately 4.5 million residents live in the core city area of 201 km2, where air pollution levels are higher and ranges are wider than the levels in most cities studied in the published literature. We obtained daily mean levels of PM10, SO2, and NO2 concentrations from five fixed-site air monitoring stations operated by the Wuhan Environmental Monitoring Center (WEMC). O3 data were obtained from two stations, and 8-hour averages, from 10:00 to 18:00, were used. Daily mortality data were obtained from the Wuhan Centres for Disease Prevention and Control (WCDC) during the study period of July 1, 2000, to June 30, 2004. To achieve the first aim, we used a regression of the logarithm of daily counts of mortality due to all natural causes and cause-specific mortality on the daily mean concentrations of the four pollutants while controlling for weather, temporal factors, and other important covariates with generalized additive models (GAMs). We derived pollutant effect estimations for 0-day, 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, and 4-day lagged exposure levels, and the averages of 0-day and 1-day lags (lag 0-1 day) and of 0-day, 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day lags (lag 0-3 days) before the event of death. In addition, we used individual-level data (e.g., age and sex) to classify subgroups in stratified analyses. Furthermore, we explored the nonlinear shapes ("thresholds") of the exposure-response relations. To achieve the second aim, we tested the hypothesis that extremely high temperature modifies the associations between air pollution and daily mortality. We developed three corresponding weather indicators: "extremely hot," "extremely cold," and "normal temperatures." The estimates were obtained from the models for the main effects and for the pollutant-temperature interaction for each pollutant and each cause of mortality. To achieve the third aim, we conducted an additional analysis. We examined the concordance rates and kappa statistics between the ICD-9-coded mortality data and the ICD-10-coded mortality data for the year 2002. We also compared the magnitudes of the estimated effects resulting from the use of the two types of ICD-coded mortality data. In general, the largest pollutant effects were observed at lag 0-1 day. Therefore, for this report, we focused on the results obtained from the lag 0-1 models. We observed consistent associations between PM10 and mortality: every 10-microg/m3 increase in PM10 daily concentration at lag 0-1 day produced a statistically significant association with an increase in mortality due to all natural causes (0.43%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.24 to 0.62), CVD (0.57%; 95% CI, 0.31 to 0.84), stroke (0.57%; 95% CI, 0.25 to 0.88), CARD (0.49%; 95% CI, 0.04 to 0.94), RD (0.87%; 95% CI, 0.34 to 1.41), CP (0.52%; 95% CI, 0.27 to 0.77), and non-CP (0.30%; 95% CI, 0.05 to 0.54). In general, these effects were stronger in females than in males and were also stronger among the elderly (> or = 65 years) than among the young. The results of sensitivity testing over the range of exposures from 24.8 to 477.8 microg/m3 also suggest the appropriateness of assuming a linear relation between daily mortality and PM10. Among the gaseous pollutants, we also observed statistically significant associations of mortality with NO, and SO2, and that the estimated effects of these two pollutants were stronger than the PM10 effects. The patterns of NO2 and SO2 associations were similar to those of PM10 in terms of sex, age, and linearity. O3 was not associated with mortality. In the analysis of the effect modification of extremely high temperature on the association between air pollution and daily mortality, only the interaction of PM10 with temperature was statistically significant. Specifically, the interaction terms were statistically significant for mortality due to all natural (P = 0.014), CVD (P = 0.007), and CP (P = 0.014) causes. Across the three temperature groups, the strongest PM10 effects occurred mainly on days with extremely high temperatures for mortality due to all natural (2.20%; 95% CI, 0.74 to 3.68), CVD (3.28%; 95% CI, 1.24 to 5.37), and CP (3.02%; 95% CI, 1.03 to 5.04) causes. The weakest effects occurred at normal temperature days, with the effects on days with low temperatures in the middle. To assess the uncertainty of the effect estimates caused by the change from ICD-9-coded mortality data to ICD-10-coded mortality data, we compared the two sets of data and found high concordance rates (> 99.3%) and kappa statistics close to 1.0 (> 0.98). All effect estimates showed very little change. All statistically significant levels of the estimated effects remained unchanged. In conclusion, the findings for the aims from the current study are consistent with those in most previous studies of air pollution and mortality. The small differences between mortality effects for deaths coded using ICD-9 and ICD-10 show that the change in coding had a minimal impact on our study. Few published papers have reported synergistic effects of extremely high temperatures and air pollution on mortality, and further studies are needed. Establishing causal links between heat, PM10, and mortality will require further toxicologic and cohort studies.

Measuring subcutaneous temperature and differential rates of rewarming from hibernation and daily torpor in two species of bats.

PubMed

Currie, Shannon E; Körtner, Gerhard; Geiser, Fritz

2015-12-01

Prolonged and remote measurement of body temperature (Tb) in undisturbed small hibernators was not possible in the past because of technological limitations. Although passive integrated transponders (PITs) have been used previously to measure subcutaneous temperature (Tsub) during daily torpor in a small marsupial, no study has attempted to use these devices at Tbs below 10°C. Therefore, we investigated whether subcutaneous interscapular PITs can be used as a viable tool for measuring Tb in a small hibernating bat (Nyctophilus gouldi; Ng) and compared it with measurements of Tb during daily torpor in a heterothermic bat (Syconycteris australis; Sa). The precision of transponders was investigated as a function of ambient temperature (Ta) and remote Tsub readings enabled us to quantify Tsub-Tb differentials during steady-state torpor and arousal. Transponders functioned well outside the manufacturer's recommended range, down to ~5°C. At rest, Tsub and rectal Tb (Trec) were strongly correlated for both bat species (Ng r(2)=0.88; Sa r(2)=0.95) and this was also true for N. gouldi in steady-state torpor (r(2)=0.93). During induced rewarming Tsub increased faster than Trec in both species. Our results demonstrate that transponders can be used to provide accurate remote measurement of Tb in two species of bats during different physiological states, both during steady-state conditions and throughout dynamic phases such as rewarming from torpor. We show that, at least during rewarming, regional heterothermy common to larger hibernators and other hibernating bats is also present in bats capable of daily torpor. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impacts of Initial Soil Moisture and Vegetation on the Diurnal Temperature Range in Arid and Semiarid Regions in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Guanghui; Zhang, Lei; Liang, Jiening; Cao, Xianjie; Guo, Qi; Yang, Zhaohong

2017-11-01

To assess the impacts of initial soil moisture (SMOIS) and the vegetation fraction (Fg) on the diurnal temperature range (DTR) in arid and semiarid regions in China, three simulations using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model are conducted by modifying the SMOIS, surface emissivity and Fg. SMOIS affects the daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and daily minimum temperature (Tmin) by altering the distribution of available energy between sensible and latent heat fluxes during the day and by altering the surface emissivity at night. Reduced soil wetness can increase both the Tmax and Tmin, but the effect on the DTR is determined by the relative strength of the effects on Tmax and Tmin. Observational data from the Semi-Arid Climate and Environment Observatory of Lanzhou University (SACOL) and the Shapotou Desert Research and Experimental Station (SPD) suggest that the magnitude of the SMOIS effect on the distribution of available energy during the day is larger than that on surface emissivity at night. In other words, SMOIS has a negative effect on the DTR. Changes in Fg modify the surface radiation and the energy budget. Due to the depth of the daytime convective boundary layer, the temperature in daytime is affected less than in nighttime by the radiation and energy budget. Increases in surface emissivity and decreases in soil heating resulting from increased Fg mainly decrease Tmin, thereby increasing the DTR. The effects of SMOIS and Fg on both Tmax and Tmin are the same, but the effects on DTR are the opposite.

Winter Season Mortality: Will Climate Warming Bring Benefits?

PubMed

Kinney, Patrick L; Schwartz, Joel; Pascal, Mathilde; Petkova, Elisaveta; Tertre, Alain Le; Medina, Sylvia; Vautard, Robert

2015-06-01

Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.

Winter season mortality: will climate warming bring benefits?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinney, Patrick L.; Schwartz, Joel; Pascal, Mathilde; Petkova, Elisaveta; Le Tertre, Alain; Medina, Sylvia; Vautard, Robert

2015-06-01

Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.

Ozone and daily mortality rate in 21 cities of East Asia: how does season modify the association?

PubMed

Chen, Renjie; Cai, Jing; Meng, Xia; Kim, Ho; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue Leon; Samoli, Evangelia; Yang, Xin; Kan, Haidong

2014-10-01

Previous studies in East Asia have revealed that the short-term associations between tropospheric ozone and daily mortality rate were strongest in winter, which is opposite to the findings in North America and Western Europe. Therefore, we investigated the season-varying association between ozone and daily mortality rate in 21 cities of East Asia from 1979 to 2010. Time-series Poisson regression models were used to analyze the association between ozone and daily nonaccidental mortality rate in each city, testing for different temperature lags. The best-fitting model was obtained after adjustment for temperature in the previous 2 weeks. Bayesian hierarchical models were applied to pool the city-specific estimates. An interquartile-range increase of the moving average concentrations of same-day and previous-day ozone was associated with an increase of 1.44% (95% posterior interval (PI): 1.08%, 1.80%) in daily total mortality rate after adjustment for temperature in the previous 2 weeks. The corresponding increases were 0.62% (95% PI: 0.08%, 1.16%) in winter, 1.46% (95% PI: 0.89%, 2.03%) in spring, 1.60% (95% PI: 1.03%, 2.17%) in summer, and 1.12% (95% PI: 0.73%, 1.51%) in fall. We found significant associations between short-term exposure to ozone and higher mortality rate in East Asia that varied considerably from season to season with a significant trough in winter. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Decadal trend of precipitation and temperature patterns and impacts on snow-related variables in a semiarid region, Sierra Nevada, Spain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

José Pérez-Palazón, María; Pimentel, Rafael; Herrero, Javier; José Polo, María

2016-04-01

In the current context of global change, mountainous areas constitute singular locations in which these changes can be traced. Early detection of significant shifts of snow state variables in semiarid regions can help assess climate variability impacts and future snow dynamics in northern latitudes. The Sierra Nevada mountain range, in southern Spain, is a representative example of snow areas in Mediterranean-climate regions and both monitoring and modelling efforts have been performed to assess this variability and its significant scales. This work presents a decadal trend analysis throughout the 50-yr period 1960-2010 performed on some snow-related variables over Sierra Nevada, in Spain, which is included in the global climate change observatories network around the world. The study area comprises 4583 km2 distributed throughout the five head basins influenced by these mountains, with altitude values ranging from 140 to 3479 m.a.s.l., just 40 km from the Mediterranean coastline. Meteorological variables obtained from 44 weather stations from the National Meteorological Agency were studied and further used as input to the distributed hydrological model WiMMed (Polo et al., 2010), operational at the study area, to obtain selected snow variables. Decadal trends were obtained, together with their statistical significance, over the following variables, averaged over the whole study area: (1) annual precipitation; (2) annual snowfall; annual (3) mean, (4) maximum and (5) minimum daily temperature; annual (6) mean and (7) maximum daily fraction of snow covered areas; (8) annual number of days with snow cover; (9) mean and (10) maximum daily snow water equivalent; (11) annual number of extreme precipitation events; and (12) mean intensity of the annual extreme precipitation events. These variables were also studied over each of the five regions associated to each basin in the range. Globally decreasing decadal trends were obtained for all the meteorological variables, with the exception of the average annual mean and maximum daily temperature. In the case of the snow-related variables, no significant trends are observed at this time scale; nonetheless, a global decreasing rate is predominant in most of the variables. The torrential events are more frequent in the last decades of the study period, with an apparently increasing associated dispersion. This study constitutes a first sound analysis of the long-term observed trends of the snow regime in this area under the context of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation regimes. The results highlight the complexity of non-linearity in environmental processes in Mediterranean regions, and point out to a significant shift in the precipitation and temperature regime, and thus on the snow-affected hydrological variables in the study area.

Temperature environment for 9975 packages stored in KAC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daugherty, W. L.

Plutonium materials are stored in the K Area Complex (KAC) in shipping packages, typically the 9975 shipping package. In order to estimate realistic degradation rates for components within the shipping package (i.e. the fiberboard overpack and O-ring seals), it is necessary to understand actual facility temperatures, which can vary daily and seasonally. Relevant facility temperature data available from several periods throughout its operating history have been reviewed. The annual average temperature within the Crane Maintenance Area has ranged from approximately 70 to 74 °F, although there is significant seasonal variation and lesser variation among different locations within the facility. Themore » long-term average degradation rate for 9975 package components is very close to that expected if the component were to remain continually at the annual average temperature. This result remains valid for a wide range of activation energies (which describes the variation in degradation rate as the temperature changes), if the activation energy remains constant over the seasonal range of component temperatures. It is recommended that component degradation analyses and service life estimates incorporate these results. Specifically, it is proposed that future analyses assume an average facility ambient air temperature of 94 °F. This value is bounding for all packages, and includes margin for several factors such as increased temperatures within the storage arrays, the addition of more packages in the future, and future operational changes.« less

Evaluation of the Environmental Bias on Accelerometer-Measured Total Daily Activity Counts and Owner Survey Responses in Dogs with Osteoarthritis.

PubMed

Katz, Erin M; Scott, Ruth M; Thomson, Christopher B; Mesa, Eileen; Evans, Richard; Conzemius, Michael G

2017-11-01

Objective  To determine if environmental variables affect the average daily activity counts (AC) of dogs with osteoarthritis (OA) and/or owners' perception of their dog's clinical signs or quality of life. Methods  The AC and Canine Brief Pain Inventory (CBPI) owner questionnaires of 62 dogs with OA were compared with daily environmental variables including the following: average temperature (°C), high temperature (°C), low temperature (°C), relative humidity (%), total precipitation (mm), average barometric pressure (hPa) and total daylight hours. Results  Daily AC significantly correlated with average temperature and total daylight hours, but average temperature and total daylight hours accounted for less than 1% of variation in AC. No other significant relationships were found between daily AC and daily high temperature, low temperature, relative humidity, total precipitation or average barometric pressure. No statistical relationship was found between daily AC and the CBPI, nor between environmental variables and the CBPI. Canine Brief Pain Inventory scores for pain severity and pain interference decreased significantly over the test period. Clinical Significance  The relationship between daily AC and average temperature and total daylight hours was significant, but unlikely to be clinically significant. Thus, environmental variables do not appear to have a clinically relevant bias on AC or owner CBPI questionnaires. The decrease over time in CBPI pain severity and pain interference values suggests owners completing the CBPI in this study were influenced by a caregiver placebo effect. Schattauer GmbH Stuttgart.

Does diurnal temperature range influence seasonal suicide mortality? Assessment of daily data of the Helsinki metropolitan area from 1973 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holopainen, Jari; Helama, Samuli; Partonen, Timo

2014-08-01

Several studies show a peak in suicide rates during springtime and suggest differences in the seasonal variation of suicides. However, the seasonal distribution of the temperature impact on suicide is less clear. This study investigated the relationship between diurnal temperature range (DTR) on suicide mortality. Daily temperature and suicide data for Helsinki were analyzed for the period of 1973-2010 inclusive. Overall, DTR reached its maximum during the spring from mid-April to mid-June, which is also the season with highest suicide mortality in the study region. Specifically, the seasonal timing and maxima for both DTR and suicides vary from year to year. Time series analysis of DTR and suicide records revealed a significant ( P < 0.01) correlation between the springtime DTR maxima and suicide rates for males. No similar association could be found for females. These results provide evidence that a higher springtime DTR could be linked statistically to a higher seasonal suicide rate each spring, whereas the exact timing of the DTR peak did not associate with the seasonal suicide rate. A possible mechanism behind the springtime association between the DTR and suicides originates from brown adipose tissue (BAT) over-activity. Activation of BAT through the winter improves cold tolerance at the cost of heat tolerance. This might trigger anxiety and psychomotor agitation, affecting mood in a negative way. As a hypothesis, the compromised heat tolerance is suggested to increase the risk of death from suicide.

Nonlinear dynamics of the CAM circadian rhythm in response to environmental forcing.

PubMed

Hartzell, Samantha; Bartlett, Mark S; Virgin, Lawrence; Porporato, Amilcare

2015-03-07

Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) photosynthesis functions as an endogenous circadian rhythm coupled to external environmental forcings of energy and water availability. This paper explores the nonlinear dynamics of a new CAM photosynthesis model (Bartlett et al., 2014) and investigates the responses of CAM plant carbon assimilation to different combinations of environmental conditions. The CAM model (Bartlett et al., 2014) consists of a Calvin cycle typical of C3 plants coupled to an oscillator of the type employed in the Van der Pol and FitzHugh-Nagumo systems. This coupled system is a function of environmental variables including leaf temperature, leaf moisture potential, and irradiance. Here, we explore the qualitative response of the system and the expected carbon assimilation under constant and periodically forced environmental conditions. The model results show how the diurnal evolution of these variables entrains the CAM cycle with prevailing environmental conditions. While constant environmental conditions generate either steady-state or periodically oscillating responses in malic acid uptake and release, forcing the CAM system with periodic daily fluctuations in light exposure and leaf temperature results in quasi-periodicity and possible chaos for certain ranges of these variables. This analysis is a first step in quantifying changes in CAM plant productivity with variables such as the mean temperature, daily temperature range, irradiance, and leaf moisture potential. Results may also be used to inform model parametrization based on the observed fluctuating regime. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Incubation behavior of king eiders on the coastal plain of Northern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bentzen, R.L.; Powell, A.N.; Phillips, Laura M.; Suydam, R.S.

2010-01-01

Incubating birds balance their energetic demands during incubation with the needs of the developing embryos. Incubation behavior is correlated with body size; larger birds can accumulate more endogenous reserves and maintain higher incubation constancy. King eiders (Somateria spectabilis) contend with variable and cold spring weather, little nesting cover, and low food availability, and thus are likely to rely heavily on endogenous reserves to maintain high incubation constancy. We examined the patterns of nest attendance of king eiders at Teshekpuk and Kuparuk, Alaska (2002-2005) in relation to clutch size, daily temperature, and endogenous reserves to explore factors controlling incubation behavior. Females at Kuparuk had higher constancy (98.5 ?? 0.2%, n = 30) than at Teshekpuk (96.9 ?? 0.8%, n = 26), largely due to length of recesses. Mean recess length ranged from 21.5 to 23.7 min at Kuparuk, and from 28.5 to 51.2 min at Teshekpuk. Mean body mass on arrival at breeding grounds (range; Teshekpuk 1,541-1,805, Kuparuk 1,616-1,760), and at the end of incubation (Teshekpuk 1,113-1,174, Kuparuk 1,173-1,183), did not vary between sites or among years (F < 1.1, P > 0.3). Daily constancy increased 1% with every 5??C increase in minimum daily temperature (??min = 0.005, 95% CI 0.002, 0.009). Higher constancy combined with similar mass loss at Kuparuk implies that females there met foraging requirements with shorter recesses. Additionally, females took more recesses at low temperatures, suggesting increased maintenance needs which were potentially ameliorated by feeding during these recesses, indicating that metabolic costs and local foraging conditions drove incubation behavior. ?? 2010 US Government.

Variation in the daily rhythm of body temperature of free-living Arabian oryx (Oryx leucoryx): does water limitation drive heterothermy?

PubMed

Hetem, Robyn Sheila; Strauss, Willem Maartin; Fick, Linda Gayle; Maloney, Shane Kevin; Meyer, Leith Carl Rodney; Shobrak, Mohammed; Fuller, Andrea; Mitchell, Duncan

2010-10-01

Heterothermy, a variability in body temperature beyond the limits of homeothermy, has been advanced as a key adaptation of Arabian oryx (Oryx leucoryx) to their arid-zone life. We measured body temperature using implanted data loggers, for a 1-year period, in five oryx free-living in the deserts of Saudi Arabia. As predicted for adaptive heterothermy, during hot months compared to cooler months, not only were maximum daily body temperatures higher (41.1 ± 0.3 vs. 39.7 ± 0.1°C, P = 0.0002) but minimum daily body temperatures also were lower (36.1 ± 0.3 vs. 36.8 ± 0.2°C, P = 0.04), resulting in a larger daily amplitude of the body temperature rhythm (5.0 ± 0.5 vs. 2.9 ± 0.2°C, P = 0.0007), while mean daily body temperature rose by only 0.4°C. The maximum daily amplitude of the body temperature rhythm reached 7.7°C for two of our oryx during the hot-dry period, the largest amplitude ever recorded for a large mammal. Body temperature variability was influenced not only by ambient temperature but also water availability, with oryx displaying larger daily amplitudes of the body temperature rhythm during warm-dry months compared to warm-wet months (3.6 ± 0.6 vs. 2.3 ± 0.3°C, P = 0.005), even though ambient temperatures were the same. Free-living Arabian oryx therefore employ heterothermy greater than that recorded in any other large mammal, but water limitation, rather than high ambient temperature, seems to be the primary driver of this heterothermy.

Weekly Oscillation of Daily Climatology of Air Temperature: Implication for Anthropogenic Attribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, S.; Wang, K.

2016-12-01

During national holiday and weekend, human activity and anthropogenic emission are expected to be much less than those during workday. Therefore, the contrast of environmental factors (i.e., air temperature and air quality) between national holiday (or weekend) and workday has been attributed to anthropogenic impact. For example, daily maximum (Tmax), minimum (Tmin) and mean (Tmean) air temperatures during the Chinese Spring Festival holiday were found to be 0. 6°C less than those of nearby workdays. We evaluated the contrasts using daily meteorological observations collected at 2479 stations in China from 1961 to 2015. The contrasts were evaluated with two methods. The first directly compared air temperatures between Chinese Spring Festival holiday and nearby workdays. The second first composited a daily climatology of air temperatures centered on the first day of Chinese Spring Festival holiday, and the seasonal cycles of air temperatures were then removed using polynomial regressions. The average of the derived daily deviation of air temperatures can be regarded as anthropogenic impact of Chinese Spring Festival holiday. We found that these two methods obtained nearly the same results. However, we found that the so-called anthropogenic impact during Chinese Spring Festival was not unique because the daily deviations of air temperatures had obvious weekly oscillations. The daily deviations of air temperature had periods of 7 days and 9 days, which explain 60% of the variance of daily deviations of Tmax, Tmin, and Tmean. These results indicate that the so-called anthropogenic impacts are primarily caused by natural variability, i.e., weekly oscillations of the air temperatures. This study also has great implication for the studies on weekend effect of the environmental factors.

Use of Regional Climate Model Output for Hydrologic Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hay, L. E.; Clark, M. P.; Wilby, R. L.; Gutowski, W. J.; Leavesley, G. H.; Pan, Z.; Arritt, R. W.; Takle, E. S.

2001-12-01

Daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature time series from a Regional Climate Model (RegCM2) were used as input to a distributed hydrologic model for a rainfall-dominated basin (Alapaha River at Statenville, Georgia) and three snowmelt-dominated basins (Animas River at Durango, Colorado; East Fork of the Carson River near Gardnerville, Nevada; and Cle Elum River near Roslyn, Washington). For comparison purposes, spatially averaged daily data sets of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature were developed from measured data. These datasets included precipitation and temperature data for all stations that are located within the area of the RegCM2 model output used for each basin, but excluded station data used to calibrate the hydrologic model. Both the RegCM2 output and station data capture the gross aspects of the seasonal cycles of precipitation and temperature. However, in all four basins, the RegCM2- and station-based simulations of runoff show little skill on a daily basis (Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) values ranging from 0.05-0.37 for RegCM2 and -0.08-0.65 for station). When the precipitation and temperature biases are corrected in the RegCM2 output and station data sets (Bias-RegCM2 and Bias-station, respectively) the accuracy of the daily runoff simulations improve dramatically for the snowmelt-dominated basins. In the rainfall-dominated basin, runoff simulations based on the Bias-RegCM2 output show no skill (NS value of 0.09) whereas Bias-All simulated runoff improves (NS value improved from -0.08 to 0.72). These results indicate that the resolution of the RegCM2 output is appropriate for basin-scale modeling, but RegCM2 model output does not contain the day-to-day variability needed for basin-scale modeling in rainfall-dominated basins. Future work is warranted to identify the causes for systematic biases in RegCM2 simulations, develop methods to remove the biases, and improve RegCM2 simulations of daily variability in local climate.

Effects of diurnal variations in temperature on non-accidental mortality among the elderly population of Montreal, Québec, 1984-2007.

PubMed

Vutcovici, Maria; Goldberg, Mark S; Valois, Marie-France

2014-07-01

The association between ambient temperature and mortality has been studied extensively. Recent data suggest an independent role of diurnal temperature variations in increasing daily mortality. Elderly adults-a growing subgroup of the population in developed countries-may be more susceptible to the effects of temperature variations. The aim of this study was to determine whether variations in diurnal temperature were associated with daily non-accidental mortality among residents of Montreal, Québec, who were 65 years of age and over during the period between 1984 and 2007. We used distributed lag non-linear Poisson models constrained over a 30-day lag period, adjusted for temporal trends, mean daily temperature, and mean daily concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and ozone to estimate changes in daily mortality with diurnal temperature. We found, over the 30 day lag period, a cumulative increase in daily mortality of 5.12% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.02-10.49%] for a change from 5.9 °C to 11.1 °C (25th to 75th percentiles) in diurnal temperature, and a 11.27% (95%CI: 2.08-21.29%) increase in mortality associated with an increase of diurnal temperature from 11.1 to 17.5 °C (75th to 99th percentiles). The results were relatively robust to adjustment for daily mean temperature. We found that, in Montreal, diurnal variations in temperature are associated with a small increase in non-accidental mortality among the elderly population. More studies are needed in different geographical locations to confirm this effect.

Recent increase in maximum temperature at the tropical treeline of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biondi, F.

2009-12-01

There are only a handful of weather stations above 3000 m in the entire American Cordillera, from Alaska to Tierra del Fuego. I present a surface instrumental record of high elevation (treeline) ecoclimatic variables for the tropics of North America. Besides its high elevation (3760 m) and tropical (19.5°N) features, this site is also located in the North American Monsoon System, making the data relevant to a broad suite of environmental issues. Automated half-hour data collected on Nevado de Colima, Mexico, from 2001 to 2009 show an increase in maximum temperature during the dry winter season, while incoming solar radiation remained stationary. Since minimum temperature did not increase as much, the daily range of air temperature has expanded over time. At this elevation, with average daily barometric pressure of 655 ± 1.4 hPa, maximum temperatures reflect the annual and daily energy cycle because of the dominant role of ground heating caused by incoming shortwave radiation. In fact, spring is the warmest season in this area, as it is followed by pronounced cooling during the summer monsoon because of increased cloudiness. The observed warming is associated with reduced wind speed, especially around solar noon, and is therefore most likely driven by reduced atmospheric flow, suggesting that the energy and water balance of high elevation tropical ecosystems are changing in unexpected ways. Further measurements and regional modeling experiments are therefore needed, given the staggering consequences this could have for any resource managers and policy makers concerned with trans-boundary (Mexico-US) terrestrial, coastal, and oceanic issues.

Water-quality characteristics of Montana streams in a statewide monitoring network, 1999-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lambing, John H.; Cleasby, Thomas E.

2006-01-01

A statewide monitoring network of 38 sites was operated during 1999-2003 in cooperation with the Montana Department of Environmental Quality to provide a broad geographic base of water-quality information on Montana streams. The purpose of this report is to summarize and describe the water-quality characteristics for those sites. Samples were collected at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in the Missouri, Yellowstone, and Columbia River basins for stream properties, nutrients, suspended sediment, major ions, and selected trace elements. Mean annual streamflows were below normal during the period, which likely influenced water quality. Continuous water-temperature monitors were operated at 26 sites. The median of daily mean water temperatures for the June-August summer period ranged from 12.5 degC at Kootenai River below Libby Dam to 23.0 degC at Poplar River near Poplar and Tongue River at Miles City. In general, sites in the Missouri River basin commonly had the highest water temperatures. Median daily mean summer water temperatures at four sites (Jefferson River near Three Forks, Missouri River at Toston, Judith River near Winifred, and Poplar River near Poplar) classified as supporting or marginally supporting cold-water biota exceeded the general guideline of 19.4 degC for cold-water biota. Median daily mean temperatures at sites in the network classified as supporting warm-water biota did not exceed the guideline of 26.7 degC for warm-water biota, although several sites exceeded the warm-water guideline on several days during the summer. More...

Weather and Climate Change Impacts on Human Mortality in Bangladesh

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burkart, Katrin; Lesk, Corey; Bader, Daniel; Horton, Radley; Kinney, Patrick

2016-01-01

Weather and climate profoundly affect human health. Several studies have demonstrated a U-, V-, or J-shaped temperature-mortality relationship with increasing death rates at the lower and particularly upper end of the temperature distribution. The objectives of this study were (1) to analyze the relationship between temperature and mortality in Bangladesh for different subpopulations and (2) to project future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. We used (non-)parametric Generalized Additive Models adjusted for trend, season and day of the month to analyze the effect of temperature on daily mortality. We found a decrease in mortality with increasing temperature over a wide range of values; between the 90th and 95th percentile an abrupt increase in mortality was observed which was particularly pronounced for the elderly above the age of 65 years, for males, as well as in urban areas and in areas with a high socio-economic status. Daily historical and future temperature values were obtained from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset. This dataset is comprised of downscaled climate scenarios for the globe that are derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The derived dose-response functions were used to estimate the number of heat-related deaths occurring during the 1990s (1980-2005), the 2020s (2011-2040) and the 2050s (2041-2070). We estimated that excess deaths due to heat will triple from the 1990s to the 2050s, with an annual number of 0.5 million excess deaths in 1990 to and expected number of 1.5 millions in 2050.

Is reticular temperature a useful indicator of heat stress in dairy cattle?

PubMed

Ammer, S; Lambertz, C; Gauly, M

2016-12-01

The present study investigated whether reticular temperature (RT) in dairy cattle is a useful indicator of heat stress considering the effects of milk yield and water intake (WI). In total, 28 Holstein-Friesian dairy cows raised on 3 farms in Lower Saxony, Germany, were studied from March to December 2013. During the study, RT and barn climate parameters (air temperature, relative humidity) were measured continuously and individual milk yield was recorded daily. Both the daily temperature-humidity index (THI) and the daily median RT per cow were calculated. Additionally, the individual WI (amount and frequency) of 10 cows during 100d of the study was recorded on 1 farm. Averaged over all farms, daily THI ranged between 35.4 and 78.9 with a mean (±standard deviation) of 60.2 (±8.7). Dairy cows were on average (±standard deviation) 110.9d in milk (±79.3) with a mean (±standard deviation) milk yield of 35.2kg/d (±9.1). The RT was affected by THI, milk yield, days in milk, and WI. Up to a THI threshold of 65, RT remained constant at 39.2°C. Above this threshold, RT increased to 39.3°C and further to 39.4°C when THI ≥70. The correlation between THI ≥70 and RT was 0.22, whereas the coefficient ranged between r=-0.08 to +0.06 when THI <70. With increasing milk yield, RT decreased slightly from 39.3°C (<30kg/d) to 39.2°C (≥40kg/d). For daily milk yields of ≥40kg, the median RT and daily milk yield were correlated at r=-0.18. The RT was greater when dairy cows yielded ≥30kg/d and THI ≥70 (39.5°C) compared with milk yields <30kg and THI <70 (39.3°C). The WI, which averaged (±standard deviation) 11.5 l (±5.7) per drinking bout, caused a mean decrease in RT of 3.2°C and was affected by the amount of WI (r=0.60). After WI, it took up to 2h until RT reached the initial level before drinking. In conclusion, RT increased when the THI threshold of 65 was exceeded. A further increase was noted when THI ≥70. Nevertheless, the effects of WI and milk yield have to be considered carefully when RT is used to detect hyperthermia in dairy cattle. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Locomotor Activity and Body Temperature Patterns over a Temperature Gradient in the Highveld Mole-Rat (Cryptomys hottentotus pretoriae).

PubMed

Haupt, Meghan; Bennett, Nigel C; Oosthuizen, Maria K

2017-01-01

African mole-rats are strictly subterranean mammals that live in extensive burrow systems. High humidity levels in the burrows prevent mole-rats from thermoregulating using evaporative cooling. However, the relatively stable environment of the burrows promotes moderate temperatures and small daily temperature fluctuations. Mole-rats therefore display a relatively wide range of thermoregulation abilities. Some species cannot maintain their body temperatures at a constant level, whereas others employ behavioural thermoregulation. Here we test the effect of ambient temperature on locomotor activity and body temperature, and the relationship between the two parameters, in the highveld mole-rat. We exposed mole-rats to a 12L:12D and a DD light cycle at ambient temperatures of 30°C, 25°C and 20°C while locomotor activity and body temperature were measured simultaneously. In addition, we investigated the endogenous rhythms of locomotor activity and body temperature at different ambient temperatures. Mole-rats displayed nocturnal activity at all three ambient temperatures and were most active at 20°C, but least active at 30°C. Body temperature was highest at 30°C and lowest at 20°C, and the daily cycle was highly correlated with locomotor activity. We show that the mole-rats have endogenous rhythms for both locomotor activity and body temperature. However, the endogenous body temperature rhythm appears to be less robust compared to the locomotor activity rhythm. Female mole-rats appear to be more sensitive to temperature changes than males, increased heterothermy is evident at lower ambient temperatures, whilst males show smaller variation in their body temperatures with changing ambient temperatures. Mole-rats may rely more heavily on behavioural thermoregulation as it is more energy efficient in an already challenging environment.

Locomotor Activity and Body Temperature Patterns over a Temperature Gradient in the Highveld Mole-Rat (Cryptomys hottentotus pretoriae)

PubMed Central

Haupt, Meghan; Bennett, Nigel C.

2017-01-01

African mole-rats are strictly subterranean mammals that live in extensive burrow systems. High humidity levels in the burrows prevent mole-rats from thermoregulating using evaporative cooling. However, the relatively stable environment of the burrows promotes moderate temperatures and small daily temperature fluctuations. Mole-rats therefore display a relatively wide range of thermoregulation abilities. Some species cannot maintain their body temperatures at a constant level, whereas others employ behavioural thermoregulation. Here we test the effect of ambient temperature on locomotor activity and body temperature, and the relationship between the two parameters, in the highveld mole-rat. We exposed mole-rats to a 12L:12D and a DD light cycle at ambient temperatures of 30°C, 25°C and 20°C while locomotor activity and body temperature were measured simultaneously. In addition, we investigated the endogenous rhythms of locomotor activity and body temperature at different ambient temperatures. Mole-rats displayed nocturnal activity at all three ambient temperatures and were most active at 20°C, but least active at 30°C. Body temperature was highest at 30°C and lowest at 20°C, and the daily cycle was highly correlated with locomotor activity. We show that the mole-rats have endogenous rhythms for both locomotor activity and body temperature. However, the endogenous body temperature rhythm appears to be less robust compared to the locomotor activity rhythm. Female mole-rats appear to be more sensitive to temperature changes than males, increased heterothermy is evident at lower ambient temperatures, whilst males show smaller variation in their body temperatures with changing ambient temperatures. Mole-rats may rely more heavily on behavioural thermoregulation as it is more energy efficient in an already challenging environment. PMID:28072840

Investigating the effect of invasion characteristics on onion thrips (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) populations in onions with a temperature-driven process model.

PubMed

Mo, Jianhua; Stevens, Mark; Liu, De Li; Herron, Grant

2009-12-01

A temperature-driven process model was developed to describe the seasonal patterns of populations of onion thrips, Thrips tabaci Lindeman, in onions. The model used daily cohorts (individuals of the same developmental stage and daily age) as the population unit. Stage transitions were modeled as a logistic function of accumulated degree-days to account for variability in development rate among individuals. Daily survival was modeled as a logistic function of daily mean temperature. Parameters for development, survival, and fecundity were estimated from published data. A single invasion event was used to initiate the population process, starting at 1-100 d after onion emergence (DAE) for 10-100 d at the daily rate of 0.001-0.9 adults/plant/d. The model was validated against five observed seasonal patterns of onion thrips populations from two unsprayed sites in the Riverina, New South Wales, Australia, during 2003-2006. Performance of the model was measured by a fit index based on the proportion of variations in observed data explained by the model (R (2)) and the differences in total thrips-days between observed and predicted populations. Satisfactory matching between simulated and observed seasonal patterns was obtained within the ranges of invasion parameters tested. Model best-fit was obtained at invasion starting dates of 6-98 DAE with a daily invasion rate of 0.002-0.2 adults/plant/d and an invasion duration of 30-100 d. Under the best-fit invasion scenarios, the model closely reproduced the observed seasonal patterns, explaining 73-95% of variability in adult and larval densities during population increase periods. The results showed that small invasions of adult thrips followed by a gradual population build-up of thrips within onion crops were sufficient to bring about the observed seasonal patterns of onion thrips populations in onion. Implications of the model on timing of chemical controls are discussed.

Validation of China-wide interpolated daily climate variables from 1960 to 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Wenping; Xu, Bing; Chen, Zhuoqi; Xia, Jiangzhou; Xu, Wenfang; Chen, Yang; Wu, Xiaoxu; Fu, Yang

2015-02-01

Temporally and spatially continuous meteorological variables are increasingly in demand to support many different types of applications related to climate studies. Using measurements from 600 climate stations, a thin-plate spline method was applied to generate daily gridded climate datasets for mean air temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation over China for the period 1961-2011. A comprehensive evaluation of interpolated climate was conducted at 150 independent validation sites. The results showed superior performance for most of the estimated variables. Except for wind speed, determination coefficients ( R 2) varied from 0.65 to 0.90, and interpolations showed high consistency with observations. Most of the estimated climate variables showed relatively consistent accuracy among all seasons according to the root mean square error, R 2, and relative predictive error. The interpolated data correctly predicted the occurrence of daily precipitation at validation sites with an accuracy of 83 %. Moreover, the interpolation data successfully explained the interannual variability trend for the eight meteorological variables at most validation sites. Consistent interannual variability trends were observed at 66-95 % of the sites for the eight meteorological variables. Accuracy in distinguishing extreme weather events differed substantially among the meteorological variables. The interpolated data identified extreme events for the three temperature variables, relative humidity, and sunshine duration with an accuracy ranging from 63 to 77 %. However, for wind speed, air pressure, and precipitation, the interpolation model correctly identified only 41, 48, and 58 % of extreme events, respectively. The validation indicates that the interpolations can be applied with high confidence for the three temperatures variables, as well as relative humidity and sunshine duration based on the performance of these variables in estimating daily variations, interannual variability, and extreme events. Although longitude, latitude, and elevation data are included in the model, additional information, such as topography and cloud cover, should be integrated into the interpolation algorithm to improve performance in estimating wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation.

Determinants of daily path length in black and gold howler monkeys (Alouatta caraya) in northeastern Argentina.

PubMed

Raño, Mariana; Kowalewski, Martin M; Cerezo, Alexis M; Garber, Paul A

2016-08-01

Models used to explain the social organization of primates suggest that variation in daily path length (DPL) is a response to variation in resource distribution and the intensity of intragroup feeding competition. However, daily path length may be affected by a number of other factors including the availability and distribution of nutritionally complementary food items, temperature which can influence activity budget, patterns of subgrouping, and the frequency and function of intergroup encounters. In this 6-month study (total 495 hr of quantitative data), we examined daily path lengths in two neighboring groups of black and gold howler monkeys (Alouatta caraya) inhabiting a semi-deciduous gallery forest in San Cayetano (27° 30'S, 58° 41'W), in the northwest province of Corrientes, Argentina. Both study groups were of similar size and composition. We identified relationships across groups between time spent feeding on fruits, leaves, and flowers, the number of trees visited, group spread, frequency of intergroup encounters, mean daily temperature, and DPL. Our results suggest that variation in food availability had a significant impact on howler ranging behavior by increasing DPL under conditions of high immature and mature fruit availability, and by decreasing DPL with increased availability and increased time invested in feeding on mature leaves. These results do not support the contention that a reduction in food availability or an increase in within-group feeding competition increased DPL in black and gold howler monkeys. DPL in black and gold howlers is influenced by several interrelated factors. In this regard we suggest that models of socio-ecology and ecological constraints need to reconsider how factors such as individual nutritional requirements, social tolerance and group cohesion, and the spatial and temporal availability of preferred and nearby food resources influence primate ranging behavior. Am. J. Primatol. 78:825-837, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effect of Personal Exposure to PM2.5 on Respiratory Health in a Mexican Panel of Patients with COPD

PubMed Central

Cortez-Lugo, Marlene; Ramírez-Aguilar, Matiana; Sansores-Martínez, Raúl; Pérez-Padilla, Rogelio; Ramírez-Venegas, Alejandra; Barraza-Villarreal, Albino

2015-01-01

Background: Air pollution is a problem, especially in developing countries. We examined the association between personal exposure to particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) on respiratory health in a group of adults with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Methods: All participants resided in Mexico City and during follow-up, personal exposure to PM2.5, respiratory symptoms, medications, and daily activity were registered daily. Peak expiratory flow (PEF) was measured twice daily, from February through December, 2000, in 29 adults with moderate, severe, and very severe COPD. PEF changes were estimated for each 10 µg/m3 increment of PM2.5, adjustment for severity of COPD, minimum temperature, and day of the sampling. Results: For a 10-µg/m3 increase in the daily average of a two-day personal exposure to PM2.5, there was a significant 33% increase in cough (95% CI, range, 5‒69%), and 23% in phlegm (95% CI, range, 2‒54%), a reduction of the PEF average in the morning of −1.4 L/min. (95% CI , range, −2.8 to −0.04), and at night of −3.0 L/min (95% CI, range, −5.7 to −0.3), respectively. Conclusions: Exposure to PM2.5 was associated with reductions in PEF and increased respiratory symptoms in adults with COPD. The PEF reduction was observed both at morning and at night. PMID:26343703

Monitoring of a 1 kWp Solar Photovoltaic System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, M. F.; Zainuddin, H.; Rejab, S. N. M.; Shaari, S. N.; Shaari, S.; Omar, A. M.; Rusop, M.

2009-06-01

A 1 kWp `stand alone' PV system consists of 4 module (2 BP SX75U module and 2 BP 275F module), inverter, 2 thermocouple, 3 voltage sensor, 3 current sensor, 4 battery and data logger (Data Taker DT80) has been set up. This research involve nine parameters which are irradiance (Ia), ambient temperature (Tamb), module temperature (Tmod), module voltage (Vmod), battery voltage (Vbat), load voltage (Vload), module current (Imod), battery current (Ibat) and load current (Iload). All parameters were measured using the equipments and sensors that connected directly to data logger (Data Taker DT80) to interpret and show the data on computer using the Delogger sofware. The data then was transferred into the computer and analyzed using the Deview and Microsoft Excel software to determine the performance indices for the stand alone PV system. From the analysis a few performance indices were determined. The range of daily solar irradiation is between 2.20 kWhm-2 to 4.00 kWhm-2, while the range of total global irradiation is between 5.76 kWh to 10.48 kWh. For daily total energy yield, the range is between 0.23 kWh d-1 to 0.28 kWh d-1. The range for clearness index is between 0.49% to 0.89%. The range for final yield is between 0.77 kWh d-1 kWp-1 to 0.93 kWhd-1 kWp-1 while the range of array efficiency is between 2.53% to 4.65%. Lastly, the range of the performance ratio is between 22.08% to 40.58%.

Water quality in Rhode River at Smithsonian Institution Pier near Annapolis, Maryland, January 1976 through December 1978

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cory, Robert L.; Dresler, P.V.

1980-01-01

Water temperature, salinity, turbidity, dissolved oxygen, pH, and water level data were continuously monitored and recorded from the Smithsonian Institution pier near Annapolis, Md., from January 1976 through December 1978. Daily maximum and minimum values are tabulated and summarized, and monthly averages and extremes are presented. Water temperature ranged from 0.0 to 33.9 Celsius. Both high and low extreme values exceeded those recorded during the previous 6 years. Salinity patterns showed normal seasonal variations and were related to the Susquehanna River inflow, which controls the upper bay salinity. Salinity between 13 and 15 parts per thousand in November and December 1978 were the highest recorded over a 9-year period. Turbidity varied seasonally, with lowest values in winter and highest in spring. Dissolved oxygen ranged from 2.0 to 18.7 milligrams per liter. Large variations between summertime daily minima and maxima indicated the high state of eutrophication of the water being monitored. Hydrogen-ion activity (pH) ranged from 7.0 to 10.2 over the 3-year period. The pH changes reflect daily variation in partial pressure of carbon dioxide, which varies inversely with the dissolved oxygen. Water level variation at the monitoring site for the 3-year period was 1.89 meters, with highest water 0.59 meter above mean high water and lowest 0.83 meter below mean low water. An apparent decline of 0.07 meter below previously recorded mean high and mean low water was associated with stronger winds and a prevalance of westerly winds in February during the winter of 1976-1977. (USGS)

Vegetation management with fire modifies peatland soil thermal regime.

PubMed

Brown, Lee E; Palmer, Sheila M; Johnston, Kerrylyn; Holden, Joseph

2015-05-01

Vegetation removal with fire can alter the thermal regime of the land surface, leading to significant changes in biogeochemistry (e.g. carbon cycling) and soil hydrology. In the UK, large expanses of carbon-rich upland environments are managed to encourage increased abundance of red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scotica) by rotational burning of shrub vegetation. To date, though, there has not been any consideration of whether prescribed vegetation burning on peatlands modifies the thermal regime of the soil mass in the years after fire. In this study thermal regime was monitored across 12 burned peatland soil plots over an 18-month period, with the aim of (i) quantifying thermal dynamics between burned plots of different ages (from <2 to 15 + years post burning), and (ii) developing statistical models to determine the magnitude of thermal change caused by vegetation management. Compared to plots burned 15 + years previously, plots recently burned (<2-4 years) showed higher mean, maximum and range of soil temperatures, and lower minima. Statistical models (generalised least square regression) were developed to predict daily mean and maximum soil temperature in plots burned 15 + years prior to the study. These models were then applied to predict temperatures of plots burned 2, 4 and 7 years previously, with significant deviations from predicted temperatures illustrating the magnitude of burn management effects. Temperatures measured in soil plots burned <2 years previously showed significant statistical disturbances from model predictions, reaching +6.2 °C for daily mean temperatures and +19.6 °C for daily maxima. Soil temperatures in plots burnt 7 years previously were most similar to plots burned 15 + years ago indicating the potential for soil temperatures to recover as vegetation regrows. Our findings that prescribed peatland vegetation burning alters soil thermal regime should provide an impetus for further research to understand the consequences of thermal regime change for carbon processing and release, and hydrological processes, in these peatlands. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Daily variation of the response to heat in Rhodnius prolixus: the roles of light and temperature as synchronisers.

PubMed

Fresquet, Nadine; Lazzari, Claudio R

2014-11-01

Triatominae are blood-sucking insects that localise their hosts with their multimodal host associated perceptive signals. Among that sensory information, one of the main short-range cue is heat which, even in isolation, is able to trigger the Proboscis Extension Response (PER) preceding the bite. Previous studies have demonstrated a rhythmic variation of the response to host signals compatible with the nocturnal habits of triatomine insects. This study was aimed at determining whether the PER to heat was also modulated by a daily variation and, if so, if it was an endogenous or exogenous rhythm. We also investigated what was used as a synchroniser between light and temperature. The results showed that alternation of light and darkness was required to ensure a high level of responsiveness to heat in early scotophase while the temperature cycle appeared with a weaker synchronisation power. We concluded that the responsiveness to heat was an exogenous rhythm synchronised by a complementary control of light and temperature cycles. The involvement of two synchronisers hierarchically organised might have increased the plasticity of the host-seeking behaviour to cope with environmental conditions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analyzing the Effects of Climate Factors on Soybean Protein, Oil Contents, and Composition by Extensive and High-Density Sampling in China.

PubMed

Song, Wenwen; Yang, Ruping; Wu, Tingting; Wu, Cunxiang; Sun, Shi; Zhang, Shouwei; Jiang, Bingjun; Tian, Shiyan; Liu, Xiaobing; Han, Tianfu

2016-05-25

From 2010 to 2013, 763 soybean samples were collected from an extensive area of China. The correlations between seed compositions and climate data were analyzed. The contents of crude protein and water-soluble protein, total amount of protein plus oil, and most of the amino acids were positively correlated with an accumulated temperature ≥15 °C (AT15) and the mean daily temperature (MDT) but were negatively correlated with hours of sunshine (HS) and diurnal temperature range (DTR). The correlations of crude oil and most fatty acids with climate factors were opposite to those of crude protein. Crude oil content had a quadratic regression relationship with MDT, and a positive correlation between oil content and MDT was found when the daily temperature was <19.7 °C. A path analysis indicated that DTR was the main factor that directly affected soybean protein and oil contents. The study illustrated the effects of climate factors on soybean protein and oil contents and proposed agronomic practices for improving soybean quality in different regions of China. The results provide a foundation for the regionalization of high-quality soybean production in China and similar regions in the world.

Multitemporal MODIS-EVI relationships with precipitation and temperature at the Santa Rita Experimental Range

Treesearch

Jorry Z. U. Kaurivi; Alfredo R. Huete; Kamel Didan

2003-01-01

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) provides temporal enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data at 250, 500, and 1,000 m spatial resolutions that can be compared to daily, weekly, monthly, and annual weather parameters. A study was conducted at the grassland site (less than 10 percent velvet mesquite [Prosopis juliflora, var. velutina]) and the...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacVean, D.W.; Franzen, D.K.; Keefe, T.J.

To elucidate the role of air quality on the occurrence of pneumonia in feedlot cattle, the following environmental values were measured at a feedlot: suspended particulates in 5 particle-size fractions, relative humidity, air temperature, and barometric pressure. Pneumonia incidence data were classified by the number of days the cattle had been at the feedlot (days on feed). The concentration of airborne particles, range of temperature, days on feed, and season of the year were associated with incidence of pneumonia in cattle. Pneumonia incidence rates were greatest both within 15 days of arrival at the feedlot and during the fall samplingmore » periods. The incidence of pneumonia in the 16 to 30 days-on-feed group was closely associated with the concentration of particles 2.0 to 3.3 microns in diameter and the range of daily temperature when exposure occurred 15 days before the onset of disease in the fall and 10 days before in the spring.« less

The physical signs of impending dehydration among elderly people in nursing homes: The association with axillary skin temperature, humidity, intraoral moisture content, and salivary components.

PubMed

Okuyama, Mayumi; Nishida, Masumi

2016-01-01

The aim of the present study was to examine the association between impending dehydration among elderly people in nursing homes and physical signs, including the axillary skin temperature, humidity, intraoral moisture content, and salivary components. The study included 78 elderly individuals who required long-term care in a nursing home (11 men and 67 women; average age, 86.6±7.3 years). The elderly subjects were classified in two groups according to their serum osmolality levels: those with levels between the upper limit reference value (292 mOsm/kg H2O) and the diagnostic reference value of dehydration (300 mOsm/kg H2O) were classified into the boundary zone group and those with levels of <292 mOsm/kg H2O were classified into the normal range group. The following parameters were measured: basic attributes (age, gender and level of care required), body mass index, diet, daily fluid intake per kilogram of body weight, physiological indicators (blood pressure, pulse rate, body temperature, axillary skin temperature, humidity, total body water, body water rate, internal liquid rate, external solution rate, blood components, intraoral water amount, and salivary components), and the indoor environment (room temperature and humidity). We then performed a statistical analysis to compare the boundary zone group with the normal range group. After adjusting for age and the daily fluid intake per kilogram of body weight (<25 ml/≥25 ml), we performed a logistic regression analysis (the boundary zone group was used as an independent variable) for variables that had significance levels of <0.05 (except for blood components). The univariate analysis revealed significant differences in the following parameters: the serum sodium, chloride, and creatinine levels; the blood sugar level; the urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio; the axillary skin temperature; and room humidity. Only the axillary skin temperature showed a significant association in the final model of the logistic regression analysis (odds ratio, 3.664; 95% confidence interval, 1.101-12.197; p = 0.034). As the axillary skin temperature increased by 1°C, there was a 3.67-fold risk of being classified into the boundary zone group instead of the normal range group. Thus, the axillary skin temperature was associated with impending dehydration.

Contributions of radiative factors to enhanced dryland warming over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yanting; Guan, Xiaodan; Yu, Haipeng; Xie, Yongkun; Jin, Hongchun

2017-08-01

Enhanced near-surface atmospheric warming has occurred over East Asia in recent decades, especially in drylands. Although local factors have been confirmed to provide considerable contributions to this warming, such factors have not been sufficiently analyzed. In this study, we extracted the radiatively forced temperature (RFT) associated with the built-up greenhouse gases, aerosol emission, and various other radiative forcing over East Asia and found a close relationship between RFT and CO2. In addition, using climate model experiments, we explored the responses of temperature changes to black carbon (BC), CO2, and SO4 and found that the enhanced dryland warming induced by CO2 had the largest magnitude and was strengthened by the warming effect of BC. Moreover, the sensitivity of daily maximum and minimum temperature changes to BC, CO2, and SO4 was examined. It showed asymmetric responses of daily maximum and minimum temperature to radiative factors, which led to an obvious change of diurnal temperature range (DTR), especially in drylands. The DTR's response to CO2 is the most significant. Therefore, CO2 not only plays a dominant role in enhanced warming but also greatly affects the decrease of DTR in drylands. However, the mechanisms of these radiative factors' effects in the process of DTR change are not clear and require more investigation.

Long Term Decline in Eastern US Winter Temperature Extremes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenary, L. L.; DelSole, T. M.; Tippett, M. K.; Doty, B.

2016-12-01

States along the US eastern seaboard have experienced successively harsh winter conditions in recent years. This has prompted speculation that climate change is leading to more extreme winter conditions. In this study we quantify changes in the observed winter extremes over the period 1950-2015, by examining year-to-year differences in intensity, frequency and likelihood of daily cold temperature extremes in the north, mid, and south Atlantic states along the US east coast. Analyzing station data for these three regions, we find that while the north and mid-Atlantic regions experienced record-breaking cold temperatures in 2015, there is no long-term increase in the intensity of cold extremes anywhere along the eastern seaboard. Likewise, despite the record number of cold days in these two regions during 2014 and 2015, there is no systematic increase in the frequency of cold extremes. To determine whether the observed changes are natural or human-forced, we repeat our analysis using a suite of climate simulations, with and without external forcing. Generally, model simulations suggest that human-induced forcing does not significantly influence the range of daily winter temperature. Combining this result with the fact that the observed winter temperatures are becoming warmer and less variable, we conclude that the recent intensification of eastern US cold extremes is only temporary.

nocte Is Required for Integrating Light and Temperature Inputs in Circadian Clock Neurons of Drosophila.

PubMed

Chen, Chenghao; Xu, Min; Anantaprakorn, Yuto; Rosing, Mechthild; Stanewsky, Ralf

2018-05-21

Circadian clocks organize biological processes to occur at optimized times of day and thereby contribute to overall fitness. While the regular daily changes of environmental light and temperature synchronize circadian clocks, extreme external conditions can bypass the temporal constraints dictated by the clock. Despite advanced knowledge about how the daily light-dark changes synchronize the clock, relatively little is known with regard to how the daily temperature changes influence daily timing and how temperature and light signals are integrated. In Drosophila, a network of ∼150 brain clock neurons exhibit 24-hr oscillations of clock gene expression to regulate daily activity and sleep. We show here that a temperature input pathway from peripheral sensory organs, which depends on the gene nocte, targets specific subsets of these clock neurons to synchronize molecular and behavioral rhythms to temperature cycles. Strikingly, while nocte 1 mutant flies synchronize normally to light-dark cycles at constant temperatures, the combined presence of light-dark and temperature cycles inhibits synchronization. nocte 1 flies exhibit altered siesta sleep, suggesting that the sleep-regulating clock neurons are an important target for nocte-dependent temperature input, which dominates a parallel light input into these cells. In conclusion, we reveal a nocte-dependent temperature input pathway to central clock neurons and show that this pathway and its target neurons are important for the integration of sensory light and temperature information in order to temporally regulate activity and sleep during daily light and temperature cycles. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial distribution of unidirectional trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Najeebullah; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi bin; Wang, Xiao-Jun

2018-06-01

Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries of the world to temperature extremes due to its predominant arid climate and geographic location in the fast temperature rising zone. Spatial distribution of the trends in annual and seasonal temperatures and temperature extremes over Pakistan has been assessed in this study. The gauge-based gridded daily temperature data of Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) having a spatial resolution of 1° × 1° was used for the assessment of trends over the period 1960-2013 using modified Mann-Kendall test (MMK), which can discriminate the multi-decadal oscillatory variations from secular trends. The results show an increase in the annual average of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in 92 and 99% area of Pakistan respectively at 95% level of confidence. The annual temperature is increasing faster in southern high-temperature region compared to other parts of the country. The minimum temperature is rising faster (0.17-0.37 °C/decade) compared to maximum temperature (0.17-0.29 °C/decade) and therefore declination of diurnal temperature range (DTR) (- 0.15 to - 0.08 °C/decade) in some regions. The annual numbers of both hot and cold days are increasing in whole Pakistan except in the northern sub-Himalayan region. Heat waves are on the rise, especially in the hot Sindh plains and the Southern coastal region, while the cold waves are becoming lesser in the northern cold region. Obtained results contradict with the findings of previous studies on temperature trends, which indicate the need for reassessment of climatic trends in Pakistan using the MMK test to understand the anthropogenic impacts of climate change.

Daily reference crop evapotranspiration with reduced data sets in the humid environments of Azores islands using estimates of actual vapor pressure, solar radiation, and wind speed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paredes, P.; Fontes, J. C.; Azevedo, E. B.; Pereira, L. S.

2017-11-01

Reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) estimations using the FAO Penman-Monteith equation (PM-ETo) require a set of weather data including maximum and minimum air temperatures (T max, T min), actual vapor pressure (e a), solar radiation (R s), and wind speed (u 2). However, those data are often not available, or data sets are incomplete due to missing values. A set of procedures were proposed in FAO56 (Allen et al. 1998) to overcome these limitations, and which accuracy for estimating daily ETo in the humid climate of Azores islands is assessed in this study. Results show that after locally and seasonally calibrating the temperature adjustment factor a d used for dew point temperature (T dew) computation from mean temperature, ETo estimations shown small bias and small RMSE ranging from 0.15 to 0.53 mm day-1. When R s data are missing, their estimation from the temperature difference (T max-T min), using a locally and seasonal calibrated radiation adjustment coefficient (k Rs), yielded highly accurate ETo estimates, with RMSE averaging 0.41 mm day-1 and ranging from 0.33 to 0.58 mm day-1. If wind speed observations are missing, the use of the default u 2 = 2 m s-1, or 3 m s-1 in case of weather measurements over clipped grass in airports, revealed appropriated even for the windy locations (u 2 > 4 m s-1), with RMSE < 0.36 mm day-1. The appropriateness of procedure to estimating the missing values of e a, R s, and u 2 was confirmed.

Can air temperatures be used to project influences of climate change on stream temperatures?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arismendi, I.; Safeeq, M.; Dunham, J.; Johnson, S. L.

2013-12-01

The lack of available in situ stream temperature records at broad spatiotemporal scales have been recognized as a major limiting factor in the understanding of thermal behavior of stream and river systems. This has motivated the promotion of a wide variety of models that use surrogates for stream temperatures including a regression approach that uses air temperature as the predictor variable. We investigate the long-term performance of widely used linear and non-linear regression models between air and stream temperatures to project the latter in future climate scenarios. Specifically, we examine the temporal variability of the parameters that define each of these models in long-term stream and air temperature datasets representing relatively natural and highly human-influenced streams. We selected 25 sites with long-term records that monitored year-round daily measurements of stream temperature (daily mean) in the western United States (California, Oregon, Idaho, Washington, and Alaska). Surface air temperature data from each site was not available. Therefore, we calculated daily mean surface air temperature for each site in contiguous US from a 1/16-degree resolution gridded surface temperature data. Our findings highlight several limitations that are endemic to linear or nonlinear regressions that have been applied in many recent attempts to project future stream temperatures based on air temperature. Our results also show that applications over longer time periods, as well as extrapolation of model predictions to project future stream temperatures are unlikely to be reliable. Although we did not analyze a broad range of stream types at a continental or global extent, our analysis of stream temperatures within the set of streams considered herein was more than sufficient to illustrate a number of specific limitations associated with statistical projections of stream temperature based on air temperature. Radar plots of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values for the two correlation models in regulated (n=14; lower panel) and unregulated (n=11; upper panel) streams. Solid lines represent average × SD of the NSE estimated for different time periods every 5-year. Dotted line at each plot indicates a NSE = 0.7. Symbols outside of the dotted line at each plot represent a satisfactory level of accuracy of the model

Association between Ambient Temperatures and Mental Disorder Hospitalizations in a Subtropical City: A Time-Series Study of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.

PubMed

Chan, Emily Y Y; Lam, Holly C Y; So, Suzanne H W; Goggins, William B; Ho, Janice Y; Liu, Sida; Chung, Phoebe P W

2018-04-14

Background : Mental disorders have been found to be positively associated with temperature in cool to cold climatic regions but the association in warmer regions is unclear. This study presented the short-term association between temperatures and mental disorder hospitalizations in a subtropical city with a mean annual temperature over 21 °C. Methods : Using Poisson-generalized additive models and distributed-lagged nonlinear models, daily mental disorder hospitalizations between 2002 and 2011 in Hong Kong were regressed on daily mean temperature, relative humidity, and air pollutants, adjusted for seasonal trend, long-term trend, day-of-week, and holiday. Analyses were stratified by disease class, gender and age-group. Results : 44,600 admissions were included in the analysis. Temperature was positively associated with overall mental-disorder hospitalizations (cumulative relative risk at 28 °C vs. 19.4 °C (interquartile range, lag 0-2 days) = 1.09 (95% confidence interval 1.03, 1.15)), with the strongest effect among the elderly (≥75 years old). Transient mental disorders due to conditions classified elsewhere and episodic mood disorders also showed strong positive associations with temperature. Conclusion : This study found a positive temperature-mental-disorder admissions association in a warm subtropical region and the association was most prominent among older people. With the dual effect of global warming and an aging population, targeted strategies should be designed to lower the disease burden.

Variability in Temperature-Related Mortality Projections under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Benmarhnia, Tarik; Sottile, Marie-France; Plante, Céline; Brand, Allan; Casati, Barbara; Fournier, Michel

2014-01-01

Background: Most studies that have assessed impacts on mortality of future temperature increases have relied on a small number of simulations and have not addressed the variability and sources of uncertainty in their mortality projections. Objectives: We assessed the variability of temperature projections and dependent future mortality distributions, using a large panel of temperature simulations based on different climate models and emission scenarios. Methods: We used historical data from 1990 through 2007 for Montreal, Quebec, Canada, and Poisson regression models to estimate relative risks (RR) for daily nonaccidental mortality in association with three different daily temperature metrics (mean, minimum, and maximum temperature) during June through August. To estimate future numbers of deaths attributable to ambient temperatures and the uncertainty of the estimates, we used 32 different simulations of daily temperatures for June–August 2020–2037 derived from three global climate models (GCMs) and a Canadian regional climate model with three sets of RRs (one based on the observed historical data, and two on bootstrap samples that generated the 95% CI of the attributable number (AN) of deaths). We then used analysis of covariance to evaluate the influence of the simulation, the projected year, and the sets of RRs used to derive the attributable numbers of deaths. Results: We found that < 1% of the variability in the distributions of simulated temperature for June–August of 2020–2037 was explained by differences among the simulations. Estimated ANs for 2020–2037 ranged from 34 to 174 per summer (i.e., June–August). Most of the variability in mortality projections (38%) was related to the temperature–mortality RR used to estimate the ANs. Conclusions: The choice of the RR estimate for the association between temperature and mortality may be important to reduce uncertainty in mortality projections. Citation: Benmarhnia T, Sottile MF, Plante C, Brand A, Casati B, Fournier M, Smargiassi A. 2014. Variability in temperature-related mortality projections under climate change. Environ Health Perspect 122:1293–1298; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306954 PMID:25036003

AgRISTARS: Supporting research. Spring small grains planting date distribution model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hodges, T.; Artley, J. A. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

A model was developed using 996 planting dates at 51 LANDSAT segments for spring wheat and spring barley in Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota in 1979. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation were obtained from the cooperative weather stations nearest to each segment. The model uses a growing degree day summation modified for daily temperature range to estimate the beginning of planting and uses a soil surface wetness variable to estimate how a fixed number of planting days are distributed after planting begins. For 1979, the model predicts first, median, and last planting dates with root mean square errors of 7.91, 6.61, and 7.09 days, respectively. The model also provides three or four dates to represent periods of planting activity within the planting season. Although the full model was not tested on an independent data set, it may be suitable in areas other than the U.S. Great Plains where spring small grains are planted as soon as soil and air temperatures become warm enough in the spring for plant growth.

Differences between true mean daily, monthly and annual air temperatures and air temperatures calculated with three equations: a case study from three Croatian stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonacci, Ognjen; Željković, Ivana; Trogrlić, Robert Šakić; Milković, Janja

2013-10-01

Differences between true mean daily, monthly and annual air temperatures T0 [Eq. (1)] and temperatures calculated with three different equations [(2), (3) and (4)] (commonly used in climatological practice) were investigated at three main meteorological Croatian stations from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2011. The stations are situated in the following three climatically distinct areas: (1) Zagreb-Grič (mild continental climate), (2) Zavižan (cold mountain climate), and (3) Dubrovnik (hot Mediterranean climate). T1 [Eq. (2)] and T3 [Eq. (4)] mean temperatures are defined by the algorithms based on the weighted means of temperatures measured at irregularly spaced, yet fixed hours. T2 [Eq. (3)] is the mean temperature defined as the average of daily maximum and minimum temperature. The equation as well as the time of observations used introduces a bias into mean temperatures. The largest differences occur for mean daily temperatures. The calculated daily difference value from all three equations and all analysed stations varies from -3.73 °C to +3.56 °C, from -1.39 °C to +0.79 °C for monthly differences and from -0.76 °C to +0.30 °C for annual differences.

Map showing length of freeze-free season in the Salina quadrangle, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Covington, Harry R.

1972-01-01

In general, long freeze-free periods occur at low elevations, and short freeze-free periods occur at high elevations. But some valley floors have shorter freeze-free seasons than the glancing foothills because air cooled at high elevations flows downward and is trapped in the valleys. This temperature pattern occurs in the western part of the quadrangle in Rabbit Valley, Grass Valley, and the Sevier River Valley near Salina.Because year-round weather stations are sparse in Utah, a special technique for estimating length of freeze-free season was developed by Dr. Gaylen L. Ashcroft, Assistant Professor of Climatology, Utah State University, and E. Arlo Richardson, State Climatologist, U.S. Weather Bureau, based on average annual temperature, average annual temperature range, average daily temperature range, and average july maximum temperature. This technique was used in preparation of the map showing “Length of 32°F freeze-free season for Utah,” figure 23 in Hydrologic Atlas of Utah (Utah State University and Utah Division of Water Resources, 1968), from which the data for this map were taken.

The Impacts of Rising Temperatures on Aircraft Takeoff Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coffel, Ethan; Thompson, Terence R.; Horton, Radley M.

2017-01-01

Steadily rising mean and extreme temperatures as a result of climate change will likely impact the air transportation system over the coming decades. As air temperatures rise at constant pressure, air density declines, resulting in less lift generation by an aircraft wing at a given airspeed and potentially imposing a weight restriction on departing aircraft. This study presents a general model to project future weight restrictions across a fleet of aircraft with different takeoff weights operating at a variety of airports. We construct performance models for five common commercial aircraft and 19 major airports around the world and use projections of daily temperatures from the CMIP5 model suite under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios to calculate required hourly weight restriction. We find that on average, 10 - 30% of annual flights departing at the time of daily maximum temperature may require some weight restriction below their maximum takeoff weights, with mean restrictions ranging from 0.5 to 4% of total aircraft payload and fuel capacity by mid- to late century. Both mid-sized and large aircraft are affected, and airports with short runways and high temperatures, or those at high elevations, will see the largest impacts. Our results suggest that weight restriction may impose a non-trivial cost on airlines and impact aviation operations around the world and that adaptation may be required in aircraft design, airline schedules, and/or runway lengths.

Impact of flow regulation and power plant effluents on the flow and temperature regimes of the Chattahoochee River; Atlanta to Whitesburg, Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faye, Robert E.; Jobson, Harvey E.; Land, Larry F.

1978-01-01

A calibrated and verified transient-flow temperature model was used to evaluate the effects of flow regulation and powerplant loadings on the natural temperature regime of the Chattahoochee River in northeast Georgia. Estimates were made of both instantaneous and average natural temperatures in the river during an 8-day period in August 1976. Differences between the computed average natural temperature and an independent estimateof natural temperature based on observed equilibrium temperatures were less than 0.5C. The combined thermal effects of flow regulation and powerplant effluents resulted in mean daily river temperatures downstreams of the powerplants about equal to or less than computed mean natural temperatures. The range and rates of change of computed natural diurnal temperature fluctuations were considerably less than those presently observed (1976) in the river. Except during periods of peak water-supply demand, differences between computed year 2000 river temperatures and observed present-day temperatures were less than 2C. (Woodard-USGS)

Thermal surveillance of volcanoes of the Cascade Range and Iceland utilizing ERTS DCP systems and imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedman, J. D. (Principal Investigator)

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Significant results of the thermal surveillance of volcanoes experiment during 1972 included the design, construction, emplacement, and successful operation at volcanic sites in the Cascade Range, North America and on Surtsey, Iceland, of automated thermistor arrays which transmit ground and fumarole temperatures via the ERTS-1 data communication system to Goddard Space Flight Center. Temperature, radiance, and anomalous heat flow variations are being plotted by a U.S. Geological Survey IBM 360/65 computer program to show daily fluctuations at each of the sites. Results are being compiled in conjunction with NASA and USGS aircraft infrared survey data to provide thermal energy yield estimates during the current repose period of several Cascade Range volcanic systems. ERTS-1 MSS images have provided new information on the extent of structural elements controlling thermal emission at Lassen Volcanic National Park.

Spatial variation of deterministic chaos in mean daily temperature and rainfall over Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuwape, I. A.; Ogunjo, S. T.; Oluyamo, S. S.; Rabiu, A. B.

2017-10-01

Daily rainfall and temperature data from 47 locations across Nigeria for the 36-year period 1979-2014 were treated to time series analysis technique to investigate some nonlinear trends in rainfall and temperature data. Some quantifiers such as Lyapunov exponents, correlation dimension, and entropy were obtained for the various locations. Positive Lyapunov exponents were obtained for the time series of mean daily rainfall for all locations in the southern part of Nigeria while negative Lyapunov exponents were obtained for all locations in the Northern part of Nigeria. The mean daily temperature had positive Lyapunov exponent values (0.35-1.6) for all the locations. Attempts were made in reconstructing the phase space of time series of rainfall and temperature.

Basal body temperature method for detecting ovarian cycle in the Captive Beluga (Delphinapterus leucas).

PubMed

Katsumata, Etsuko; Furuta, Chie; Katsumata, Hiroshi; Watanabe, Gen; Taya, Kazuyoshi

2006-02-01

The relationship between basal body temperature and circulating progesterone levels were investigated in a female beluga. Body temperature and serum concentrations of progesterone were measured daily and at 2-4 week intervals respectively, in a female beluga that was in captivity for 7 years between 1996 and 2003. The beluga first ovulated in April, 2000 (13 years old). Thereafter, serum concentrations of progesterone showed cyclic changes, indicating that the ovulatory cycle had started. Serum concentrations of progesterone ranged from 0.1 ng/ml to 15.7 ng/ml. Body temperature also showed cyclic changes during the estrous cycle. Body temperature ranged from 34.9 to 35.9 C, and tended to reach the peak during the high progesterone phase. Mating behavior was observed during the low body temperature phase. The changes in body temperature positively correlated with the circulating progesterone levels. The length of the estrous cycle was 36.7 +/- 3.9 (mean +/- SEM) days based on the intervals between the days of mating behavior. This is the first report demonstrating that body temperature clearly changes during the estrous cycle in a captive female beluga. The present finding suggests that measurement of body temperature is a useful method for detecting the ovarian cycle of the beluga in captivity.

Fluoride concentration level in rural area in Poldasht city and daily fluoride intake based on drinking water consumption with temperature.

PubMed

Mohammadi, Ali Akbar; Yousefi, Mahmood; Mahvi, Amir Hossein

2017-08-01

Long-term exposure to high level of fluoride can caused several adverse effects on human health including dental and skeletal fluorosis. We investigated all the drinking water source located in rural areas of Poldasht city, west Azerbaijan Province, North West Iran between 2014 and 2015. Fluoride concentration of water samples was measured by SPADNS method. We found that in the villages of Poldasht the average of fluoride concentration in drinking water sources (well, and the river) was in the range mg/l 0.28-10.23. The average daily received per 2 l of drinking water is in the range mg/l 0.7-16.6 per day per person. Drinking water demands cause fluorosis in the villages around the area residents and based on the findings of this study writers are announced suggestions below in order to take care of the health of area residents.

Influence of Flow Regulation on Summer Water Temperature: Sauce Grande River, Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casado, A.; Hannah, D. M.; Peiry, J.; Campo, A. M.

2012-12-01

This study quantifies the effects of the Paso de las Piedras Dam on the thermal behaviour of the Sauce Grande River, Argentina, during a summer season. A 30-day data set of continuous hourly data was assembled for eight stream temperature gauging sites deployed above and below the impoundment. Time series span the hottest period recorded during summer 2009 to evaluate variations in river water temperature under strong meteorological influence. The methods include: (i) analysis of the time series by inspecting the absolute differences in daily data (magnitude, timing, frequency, duration and rate of change), (ii) classification of diurnal regimes by using a novel regime 'shape' and 'magnitude' classifying method (RSMC), and (ii) quantification of the sensitivity of water temperature regimes to air temperature by computation of a novel sensitivity index (SI). Results showed that fluctuations in daily water temperatures were linked to meteorological drivers; however, spatial variability in the shape and the magnitude of the thermographs revealed the effects of the impoundment in regulating the thermal behaviour of the river downstream. An immediate cooling effect below the dam was evident. Mean daily temperatures were reduced in up to 4 °C, and described a warming trend in the downstream direction over a distance of at least 15 km (up to +2.3 °C). Diurnal cycles were reduced in amplitude and delayed in timing, and revealed a dominance of regime magnitude stability and regime shape climatic insensitivity over a distance of 8 km downstream. These findings provide new information about the water quality of the Sauce Grande River and inform management of flows to maintain the ecological integrity of the river system. Also, they motivate further analysis of potential correlates under varying hydrological and meteorological conditions. The methods presented herein have wider applicability for quantifying river thermal regimes and their sensitivity to climate and other drivers of change over a range of temporal and spatial scales.

Climate Change: A New Metric to Measure Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Temperatures using Record Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Munasinghe, L.; Jun, T.; Rind, D. H.

2012-01-01

Consensus on global warming is the result of multiple and varying lines of evidence, and one key ramification is the increase in frequency of extreme climate events including record high temperatures. Here we develop a metric- called "record equivalent draws" (RED)-based on record high (low) temperature observations, and show that changes in RED approximate changes in the likelihood of extreme high (low) temperatures. Since we also show that this metric is independent of the specifics of the underlying temperature distributions, RED estimates can be aggregated across different climates to provide a genuinely global assessment of climate change. Using data on monthly average temperatures across the global landmass we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures increased 10-fold between the first three decades of the last century (1900-1929) and the most recent decade (1999-2008). A more disaggregated analysis shows that the increase in frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the tropics than in higher latitudes, a pattern that is not indicated by changes in mean temperature. Our RED estimates also suggest concurrent increases in the frequency of both extreme high and extreme low temperatures during 2002-2008, a period when we observe a plateauing of global mean temperature. Using daily extreme temperature observations, we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the daily minimum temperature time-series compared to the daily maximum temperature time-series. There is no such observable difference in the frequency of extreme low temperatures between the daily minimum and daily maximum.

Estimation of body temperature rhythm based on heart activity parameters in daily life.

PubMed

Sooyoung Sim; Heenam Yoon; Hosuk Ryou; Kwangsuk Park

2014-01-01

Body temperature contains valuable health related information such as circadian rhythm and menstruation cycle. Also, it was discovered from previous studies that body temperature rhythm in daily life is related with sleep disorders and cognitive performances. However, monitoring body temperature with existing devices during daily life is not easy because they are invasive, intrusive, or expensive. Therefore, the technology which can accurately and nonintrusively monitor body temperature is required. In this study, we developed body temperature estimation model based on heart rate and heart rate variability parameters. Although this work was inspired by previous research, we originally identified that the model can be applied to body temperature monitoring in daily life. Also, we could find out that normalized Mean heart rate (nMHR) and frequency domain parameters of heart rate variability showed better performance than other parameters. Although we should validate the model with more number of subjects and consider additional algorithms to decrease the accumulated estimation error, we could verify the usefulness of this approach. Through this study, we expect that we would be able to monitor core body temperature and circadian rhythm from simple heart rate monitor. Then, we can obtain various health related information derived from daily body temperature rhythm.

Agricultural losses related to frost events: use of the 850 hPa level temperature as an explanatory variable of the damage cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papagiannaki, K.; Lagouvardos, K.; Kotroni, V.; Papagiannakis, G.

2014-01-01

The objective of this study is to analyze frost damaging events in agriculture, by examining the relationship between the daily minimum temperature at the lower atmosphere (at the pressure level of 850 hPa) and crop production losses. Furthermore, the study suggests a methodological approach for estimating agriculture risk due to frost events, with the aim to estimate the short-term probability and magnitude of frost-related financial losses for different levels of 850 hPa temperature. Compared with near surface temperature forecasts, temperature forecast at the level of 850 hPa is less influenced by varying weather conditions, as well as by local topographical features, thus it constitutes a more consistent indicator of the forthcoming weather conditions. The analysis of the daily monetary compensations for insured crop losses caused by weather events in Greece, during the period 1999-2011, shows that frost is the major meteorological phenomenon with adverse effects on crop productivity in the largest part of the country. Two regions of different geographical latitude are further examined, to account for the differences in the temperature ranges developed within their ecological environment. Using a series of linear and logistic regressions, we found that minimum temperature (at 850 hPa level), grouped in three categories according to its magnitude, and seasonality are significant variables when trying to explain crop damage costs, as well as to predict and quantify the likelihood and magnitude of frost damaging events.

Coherent variability between seasonal temperatures and rainfalls in the Iberian Peninsula, 1951-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, F. S.

2018-02-01

In this work trends of seasonal mean of daily minimum (TN), maximum (TX), mean (TM) temperatures, daily range of temperature (DTR), and total seasonal rainfall (R) in 35 Iberian stations since mid-twentieth century are studied. The interest is focused on the relationships between temperature variables and rainfall, taking into account the correlation coefficients between R and the temperature variables. The negative link between rainfall and temperatures is detected in the four seasons of the year, except in western stations in winter for TN and TM, and in autumn for TN (for this variable a certain annual cycle is detected, with predominance of positive correlation in winter, negative in spring and summer, and the autumn as transition season). The role of cloud cover is confirmed in those stations with total cloud cover data. Using an average peninsular series, the relationship between nighttime temperature and rainfall related to long wave radiation is confirmed for the four seasons of the year, although in spring and summer has minor importance than in the cold half year. The relationships between R, TN, and TX are in general terms stable after a moving correlation analysis, although the negative correlation between TX and R seems be weakened in spring and autumn and reinforced in summer. The role of convective precipitation in autumn is discussed. The analysis of combined extreme indices in four representative stations shows an increase of warm and dry days, and a decrease of cold and wet days.

Agricultural losses related to frost events: use of the 850 hPa level temperature as an explanatory variable of the damage cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papagiannaki, K.; Lagouvardos, K.; Kotroni, V.; Papagiannakis, G.

2014-09-01

The objective of this study is the analysis of damaging frost events in agriculture, by examining the relationship between the daily minimum temperature in the lower atmosphere (at an isobaric level of 850 hPa) and crop production losses. Furthermore, the study suggests a methodological approach for estimating agriculture risk due to frost events, with the aim of estimating the short-term probability and magnitude of frost-related financial losses for different levels of 850 hPa temperature. Compared with near-surface temperature forecasts, temperature forecasts at the level of 850 hPa are less influenced by varying weather conditions or by local topographical features; thus, they constitute a more consistent indicator of the forthcoming weather conditions. The analysis of the daily monetary compensations for insured crop losses caused by weather events in Greece shows that, during the period 1999-2011, frost caused more damage to crop production than any other meteorological phenomenon. Two regions of different geographical latitudes are examined further, to account for the differences in the temperature ranges developed within their ecological environment. Using a series of linear and logistic regressions, we found that minimum temperature (at an 850 hPa level), grouped into three categories according to its magnitude, and seasonality, are significant variables when trying to explain crop damage costs, as well as to predict and quantify the likelihood and magnitude of damaging frost events.

A Climate-Data Record (CDR) of the "Clear-Sky" Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Comiso, Josefino C.; DiGirolamo, Nocolo E.; Shuman, Christopher A.

2011-01-01

We have developed a climate-data record (CDR) of "clear-sky" ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet using Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. The CDR provides daily and monthly-mean IST from March 2000 through December 2010 on a polar stereographic projection at a resolution of 6.25 km. The CDR is amenable to extension into the future using Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data. Regional "clear-sky" surface temperature increases since the early 1980s in the Arctic, measured using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) infrared data, range from 0.57 +/- 0.02 to 0.72 +/- 0.1 c per decade. Arctic warming has important implications for ice-sheet mass balance because much of the periphery of the Greenland Ice Sheet is already near O C during the melt season, and is thus vulnerable to rapid melting if temperatures continue to increase. An increase in melting of the ice sheet would accelerate sea-level rise, an issue affecting potentially billions of people worldwide. The IST CDR will provide a convenient data set for modelers and for climatologists to track changes of the surface temperature of the ice sheet as a whole and of the individual drainage basins on the ice sheet. The daily and monthly maps will provide information on surface melt as well as "clear-sky" temperature. The CDR will be further validated by comparing results with automatic-weather station data and with satellite-derived surface-temperature products.

Advanced techniques for modeling avian nest survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinsmore, S.J.; White, Gary C.; Knopf, F.L.

2002-01-01

Estimation of avian nest survival has traditionally involved simple measures of apparent nest survival or Mayfield constant-nest-survival models. However, these methods do not allow researchers to build models that rigorously assess the importance of a wide range of biological factors that affect nest survival. Models that incorporate greater detail, such as temporal variation in nest survival and covariates representative of individual nests represent a substantial improvement over traditional estimation methods. In an attempt to improve nest survival estimation procedures, we introduce the nest survival model now available in the program MARK and demonstrate its use on a nesting study of Mountain Plovers (Charadrius montanus Townsend) in Montana, USA. We modeled the daily survival of Mountain Plover nests as a function of the sex of the incubating adult, nest age, year, linear and quadratic time trends, and two weather covariates (maximum daily temperature and daily precipitation) during a six-year study (1995–2000). We found no evidence for yearly differences or an effect of maximum daily temperature on the daily nest survival of Mountain Plovers. Survival rates of nests tended by female and male plovers differed (female rate = 0.33; male rate = 0.49). The estimate of the additive effect for males on nest survival rate was 0.37 (95% confidence limits were 0.03, 0.71) on a logit scale. Daily survival rates of nests increased with nest age; the estimate of daily nest-age change in survival in the best model was 0.06 (95% confidence limits were 0.04, 0.09) on a logit scale. Daily precipitation decreased the probability that the nest would survive to the next day; the estimate of the additive effect of daily precipitation on the nest survival rate was −1.08 (95% confidence limits were −2.12, −0.13) on a logit scale. Our approach to modeling daily nest-survival rates allowed several biological factors of interest to be easily included in nest survival models and allowed us to generate more biologically meaningful estimates of nest survival.

Association between temperature and death in residential populations in Shanghai

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsia, L. B.; Lu, J. K.

1988-03-01

The study is focused on patterns of daily deaths in Shanghai for the period from 1 May 1979 to 30 April 1980. From May to September the deaths in all age groups are lower, but increase gradually from October and reach to a peak in February. This confirms results found in other countries, namely the death rate is increased in winter. The peak for the population aged over 70 is the highest of the three different age groups. Correlation analyses were carried out on three temperature parameters (daily minimum, maximum and mean temperatures) and six categories of death (heart disease, coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, cancer, respiratory disease and total deaths). The results reveal that the average daily temperature is very significant for the six categories of death. There are three correlations: straight line relationship, parabolic relationship and exponential relationship. These different types arise from the different morbidity rates. Death from the different disease is also increased during days when the daily maximum temperature is over 35° C or the daily minimum temperature is below 0°C. This shows, in general, that days of extreme temperature lead to an increase in the death rate.

The EUSTACE project: delivering global, daily information on surface air temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghent, D.; Rayner, N. A.

2017-12-01

Day-to-day variations in surface air temperature affect society in many ways; however, daily surface air temperature measurements are not available everywhere. A global daily analysis cannot be achieved with measurements made in situ alone, so incorporation of satellite retrievals is needed. To achieve this, in the EUSTACE project (2015-2018, https://www.eustaceproject.eu) we have developed an understanding of the relationships between traditional (land and marine) surface air temperature measurements and retrievals of surface skin temperature from satellite measurements, i.e. Land Surface Temperature, Ice Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Temperature and Lake Surface Water Temperature. Here we discuss the science needed to produce a fully-global daily analysis (or ensemble of analyses) of surface air temperature on the centennial scale, integrating different ground-based and satellite-borne data types. Information contained in the satellite retrievals is used to create globally-complete fields in the past, using statistical models of how surface air temperature varies in a connected way from place to place. This includes developing new "Big Data" analysis methods as the data volumes involved are considerable. We will present recent progress along this road in the EUSTACE project, i.e.: • identifying inhomogeneities in daily surface air temperature measurement series from weather stations and correcting for these over Europe; • estimating surface air temperature over all surfaces of Earth from surface skin temperature retrievals; • using new statistical techniques to provide information on higher spatial and temporal scales than currently available, making optimum use of information in data-rich eras. Information will also be given on how interested users can become involved.

Basking and torpor in a rock-dwelling desert marsupial: survival strategies in a resource-poor environment.

PubMed

Geiser, Fritz; Pavey, Chris R

2007-11-01

Australian deserts are characterized by unpredictability, low primary productivity, and high temperature fluctuations. Despite these adverse conditions the diversity of small insectivorous marsupials of the family Dasyuridae is surprisingly high. We quantified the thermal biology of the dasyurid Pseudantechinus madonnellensis (body mass approximately 30 g) in the wild to gain some understanding of whether the success of dasyurids in the arid zone may be related to some extent to their use of energy conservation strategies. In winter, most free-ranging Pseudantechinus frequently (58.3% of 131 animal days) entered daily torpor after midnight (mean 0157 hours) in rock crevices when outside ambient temperatures (T (a)) were low. Most animals remained torpid until the next morning when they moved while still torpid from rock crevices to sun-exposed basking sites. We visually observed basking during rewarming from torpor (mean commencement at 0943 hours) at body temperatures (T (b)) as low as 19.3 degrees C when radiant heat was high and T (a) was rising. Basking continued for the rest of the day. Torpor use was not strongly correlated with T (a), but the temporal organization of daily torpor and activity were apparently linked to the thermal characteristics of basking sites. Our study suggests that by frequently employing daily torpor and basking and by appropriately coordinating their thermal biology with that of specific locations in their environment, Pseudantechinus can reduce daily energy expenditure and thus can live and reproduce in a challenging environment. It is likely that the success of other small dasyurids and perhaps many other small mammals living in deserts is linked to employment of torpor and basking for energy conservation.

Changes in cause-specific mortality during heat waves in central Spain, 1975-2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miron, Isidro Juan; Linares, Cristina; Montero, Juan Carlos; Criado-Alvarez, Juan Jose; Díaz, Julio

2015-09-01

The relationship between heat waves and mortality has been widely described, but there are few studies using long daily data on specific-cause mortality. This study is undertaken in central Spain and analysing natural causes, circulatory and respiratory causes of mortality from 1975 to 2008. Time-series analysis was performed using ARIMA models, including data on specific-cause mortality and maximum and mean daily temperature and mean daily air pressure. The length of heat waves and their chronological number were analysed. Data were stratified in three decadal stages: 1975-1985, 1986-1996 and 1997-2008. Heat-related mortality was triggered by a threshold temperature of 37 °C. For each degree that the daily maximum temperature exceeded 37 °C, the percentage increase in mortality due to circulatory causes was 19.3 % (17.3-21.3) in 1975-1985, 30.3 % (28.3-32.3) in 1986-1996 and 7.3 % (6.2-8.4) in 1997-2008. The increase in respiratory cause ranged from 12.4 % (7.8-17.0) in the first period, to 16.3 % (14.1-18.4) in the second and 13.7 % (11.5-15.9) in the last. Each day of heat-wave duration explained 5.3 % (2.6-8.0) increase in respiratory mortality in the first period and 2.3 % (1.6-3.0) in the last. Decadal scale differences exist for specific-causes mortality induced by extreme heat. The impact on heat-related mortality by natural and circulatory causes increases between the first and the second period and falls significantly in the last. For respiratory causes, the increase is no reduced in the last period. These results are of particular importance for the estimation of future impacts of climate change on health.

Entrainment of the circadian clock by daily ambient temperature cycles in the camel (Camelus dromedarius).

PubMed

El Allali, Khalid; Achaâban, Mohamed R; Bothorel, Béatrice; Piro, Mohamed; Bouâouda, Hanan; El Allouchi, Morad; Ouassat, Mohammed; Malan, André; Pévet, Paul

2013-06-01

In mammals the light-dark (LD) cycle is known to be the major cue to synchronize the circadian clock. In arid and desert areas, the camel (Camelus dromedarius) is exposed to extreme environmental conditions. Since wide oscillations of ambient temperature (Ta) are a major factor in this environment, we wondered whether cyclic Ta fluctuations might contribute to synchronization of circadian rhythms. The rhythm of body temperature (Tb) was selected as output of the circadian clock. After having verified that Tb is synchronized by the LD and free runs in continuous darkness (DD), we submitted the animals to daily cycles of Ta in LL and in DD. In both cases, the Tb rhythm was entrained to the cycle of Ta. On a 12-h phase shift of the Ta cycle, the mean phase shift of the Tb cycle ranged from a few hours in LD (1 h by cosinor, 4 h from curve peaks) to 7-8 h in LL and 12 h in DD. These results may reflect either true synchronization of the central clock by Ta daily cycles or possibly a passive effect of Ta on Tb. To resolve the ambiguity, melatonin rhythmicity was used as another output of the clock. In DD melatonin rhythms were also entrained by the Ta cycle, proving that the daily Ta cycle is able to entrain the circadian clock of the camel similar to photoperiod. By contrast, in the presence of a LD cycle the rhythm of melatonin was modified by the Ta cycle in only 2 (or 3) of 7 camels: in these specific conditions a systematic effect of Ta on the clock could not be evidenced. In conclusion, depending on the experimental conditions (DD vs. LD), the daily Ta cycle can either act as a zeitgeber or not.

Poaceae pollen in the air depending on the thermal conditions.

PubMed

Myszkowska, Dorota

2014-07-01

The relationship between the meteorological elements, especially the thermal conditions and the Poaceae pollen appearance in the air, were analysed as a basis to construct a useful model predicting the grass season start. Poaceae pollen concentrations were monitored in 1991-2012 in Kraków using the volumetric method. Cumulative temperature and effective cumulative temperature significantly influenced the season start in this period. The strongest correlation was seen as the sum of mean daily temperature amplitudes from April 1 to April 14, with mean daily temperature>15 °C and effective cumulative temperature>3 °C during that period. The proposed model, based on multiple regression, explained 57% of variation of the Poaceae season starts in 1991-2010. When cumulative mean daily temperature increased by 10 °C, the season start was accelerated by 1 day. The input of the interaction between these two independent variables into the factor regression model caused the increase in goodness of model fitting. In 2011 the season started 5 days earlier in comparison with the predicted value, while in 2012 the season start was observed 2 days later compared to the predicted day. Depending on the value of mean daily temperature from March 18th to the 31st and the sum of mean daily temperature amplitudes from April 1st to the 14th, the grass pollen seasons were divided into five groups referring to the time of season start occurrence, whereby the early and moderate season starts were the most frequent in the studied period and they were especially related to mean daily temperature in the second half of March.

[Impact of low temperature in young ear formation stage on rice seed setting.

PubMed

Ma, Shu Qing; Liu, Xiao Hang; Deng, Kui Cai; Quan, Hu Jie; Tong, Li Yuan; Xi, Zhu Xiang; Chai, Qing Rong; Yang, Jun

2018-01-01

A low temperature treatment in rice booting key period was executed on the north slope of Changbai Mountains to construct the impact model of low temperature on rice shell rate, and to reveal the effects of low temperature at different stages of rice young panicle on seed setting. The results showed that effects of low temperature in the young ear formation stage on rice shell rate generally followed the logarithmic function, the lower the temperature was, the greater the temperature influence coefficient was, and the longer the low temperature duration was, the higher rice shell rate was. The seed setting rate was most sensitive to low temperature in the middle time of booting stage (the period from formation to meiosis of the pollen mother cell), followed by the early and later stages. During the booting stage, with 1 ℃ decrease of daily temperature under 2-, 3- and 5-day low temperature treatments, the shell rate increased by 0.5, 1.7 and 4.3 percentage, respectively, and with 1 ℃ decrease of daily minimum temperature, the shell rate increased by 0.4,1.8 and 4.5 percentage, respectively. The impact of 2-day low temperature was smaller than that of 3 days or more. The impact of accumulative cold-temperature on the shell rate followed exponential function. In the range of harmful low temperature, rice shell rate increased about 8.5 percentage with the accumulative cold-temperature increasing 10 ℃·d. When the 3 days average temperature dropped to 21.6, 18.0 and 15.0 ℃, or the 5 days average temperature dropped to 22.0, 20.4 and 18.5 ℃, or the accumulative cold-temperature was more than 8, 19, 26 ℃·d, the light, moderate and severe booting stage chilling injury would occur, respectively. In Northeast China, low temperature within 2 d in rice booting stage might not cause moderate and severe chilling injury.

Instrumenting the Conifers: A Look at Daily Tree Growth and Locally Observed Environmental Conditions Across Four Mountain Sites in the Central Great Basin, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strachan, S.; Biondi, F.; Johnson, B. G.

2012-12-01

Tree growth is often used as a proxy for past environmental conditions or as an indicator of developing trends. Reconstructions of drought, precipitation, temperature, and other phenomena derived from tree-growth indices abound in scientific literature aimed at informing policy makers. Observations of tree recruitment or death in treeline populations are frequently tied to climatic fluctuation in cause-effect hypotheses. Very often these hypotheses are based on statistical relationships between annual-to-seasonal tree growth measurements and some environmental parameter measured or modeled off-site. Observation of daily tree growth in conjunction with in-situ environmental measurements at similar timescales takes us one step closer to quantifying the uncertainty in reconstruction or predictive studies. In four separate sites in two different mountain ranges in the central Great Basin, co-located observations of conifer growth activity and local atmospheric and soils conditions have been initiated. Species include Pinus longaeva (Great Basin bristlecone pine), Pinus flexilis (limber pine), Picea engelmannii (Engelmann spruce), Pinus monophylla (singleleaf pinyon pine), Pinus ponderosa (ponderosa pine), Abies concolor (white fir), and Pseudotsuga menziesii (Douglas-fir). Measurements of sub-hourly tree radial length change and sap flow activity are compared with a suite of in-situ observations including air temperature, precipitation, photosynthetically-active radiation (PAR), relative humidity, soil temperature, and soil moisture/water content. Subalpine study site located at 3360 m elevation in the Snake Range, Nevada

Thermal biology, torpor use and activity patterns of a small diurnal marsupial from a tropical desert: sexual differences.

PubMed

Körtner, Gerhard; Rojas, A Daniella; Geiser, Fritz

2010-08-01

Many small desert dasyurids employ torpor almost daily during winter, because cold nights and low food availability impose high energetic costs. However, in Western Australia the arid zone extends into tropical, coastal regions, where winter temperature conditions are far less severe. We studied the thermal biology and activity patterns of free-ranging kaluta (approximately 27 g), a dasyurid restricted to these tropical spinifex deserts, during the Austral winter (June-July) and in addition quantified activity patterns in captivity. Unlike most dasyurids, wild and captive kalutas were almost exclusively diurnal and retreated into underground burrows during the night. Despite being active during the warmer part of the day, kalutas entered torpor daily. However, torpor patterns differed remarkably between males and females. While females spent most of the night torpid at body temperatures (T (b)) as low as 21 degrees C, close to soil temperature, males entered multiple short and shallow bouts (T (b) > 25 degrees C) during the night. Males also maintained higher T (b)s during the early morning when active, occupied larger home ranges and covered greater distances while foraging than females. Hence, males appear to expend more energy than the similar-sized females both while foraging and during the rest phase. We propose that physiological as well as behavioural preparations for the September mating season that culminate in a complete male die-off might already impose energetic costs on males during winter.

Local air temperature tolerance: a sensible basis for estimating climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kärner, Olavi; Post, Piia

2016-11-01

The customary representation of climate using sample moments is generally biased due to the noticeably nonstationary behaviour of many climate series. In this study, we introduce a moment-free climate representation based on a statistical model fitted to a long-term daily air temperature anomaly series. This model allows us to separate the climate and weather scale variability in the series. As a result, the climate scale can be characterized using the mean annual cycle of series and local air temperature tolerance, where the latter is computed using the fitted model. The representation of weather scale variability is specified using the frequency and the range of outliers based on the tolerance. The scheme is illustrated using five long-term air temperature records observed by different European meteorological stations.

Chronic air pollution and social deprivation as modifiers of the association between high temperature and daily mortality

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Heat and air pollution are both associated with increases in mortality. However, the interactive effect of temperature and air pollution on mortality remains unsettled. Similarly, the relationship between air pollution, air temperature, and social deprivation has never been explored. Methods We used daily mortality data from 2004 to 2009, daily mean temperature variables and relative humidity, for Paris, France. Estimates of chronic exposure to air pollution and social deprivation at a small spatial scale were calculated and split into three strata. We developed a stratified Poisson regression models to assess daily temperature and mortality associations, and tested the heterogeneity of the regression coefficients of the different strata. Deaths due to ambient temperature were calculated from attributable fractions and mortality rates were estimated. Results We found that chronic air pollution exposure and social deprivation are effect modifiers of the association between daily temperature and mortality. We found a potential interactive effect between social deprivation and chronic exposure with regards to air pollution in the mortality-temperature relationship. Conclusion Our results may have implications in considering chronically polluted areas as vulnerable in heat action plans and in the long-term measures to reduce the burden of heat stress especially in the context of climate change. PMID:24941876

Chronic air pollution and social deprivation as modifiers of the association between high temperature and daily mortality.

PubMed

Benmarhnia, Tarik; Oulhote, Youssef; Petit, Claire; Lapostolle, Annabelle; Chauvin, Pierre; Zmirou-Navier, Denis; Deguen, Séverine

2014-06-18

Heat and air pollution are both associated with increases in mortality. However, the interactive effect of temperature and air pollution on mortality remains unsettled. Similarly, the relationship between air pollution, air temperature, and social deprivation has never been explored. We used daily mortality data from 2004 to 2009, daily mean temperature variables and relative humidity, for Paris, France. Estimates of chronic exposure to air pollution and social deprivation at a small spatial scale were calculated and split into three strata. We developed a stratified Poisson regression models to assess daily temperature and mortality associations, and tested the heterogeneity of the regression coefficients of the different strata. Deaths due to ambient temperature were calculated from attributable fractions and mortality rates were estimated. We found that chronic air pollution exposure and social deprivation are effect modifiers of the association between daily temperature and mortality. We found a potential interactive effect between social deprivation and chronic exposure with regards to air pollution in the mortality-temperature relationship. Our results may have implications in considering chronically polluted areas as vulnerable in heat action plans and in the long-term measures to reduce the burden of heat stress especially in the context of climate change.

The impact of daily temperature on renal disease incidence: an ecological study.

PubMed

Borg, Matthew; Bi, Peng; Nitschke, Monika; Williams, Susan; McDonald, Stephen

2017-10-27

Extremely high temperatures over many consecutive days have been linked to an increase in renal disease in several cities. This is becoming increasingly relevant with heatwaves becoming longer, more intense, and more frequent with climate change. This study aimed to extend the known relationship between daily temperature and kidney disease to include the incidence of eight temperature-prone specific renal disease categories - total renal disease, urolithiasis, renal failure, acute kidney injury (AKI), chronic kidney disease (CKD), urinary tract infections (UTIs), lower urinary tract infections (LUTIs) and pyelonephritis. Daily data was acquired for maximum, minimum and average temperature over the period of 1 July 2003 to 31 March 2014 during the warm season (October to March) in Adelaide, South Australia. Data for daily admissions to all metropolitan hospitals for renal disease, including 83,519 emergency department admissions and 42,957 inpatient admissions, was also obtained. Renal outcomes were analyzed using time-stratified negative binomial regression models, with the results aggregated by day. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated for associations between the number of admissions and daily temperature. Increases in daily temperature per 1 °C were associated with an increased incidence for all renal disease categories except for pyelonephritis. Minimum temperature was associated with the greatest increase in renal disease followed by average temperature and then maximum temperature. A 1°C increase in daily minimum temperature was associated with an increase in daily emergency department admissions for AKI (IRR 1.037, 95% CI: 1.026-1.048), renal failure (IRR 1.030, 95% CI: 1.022-1.039), CKD (IRR 1.017, 95% CI: 1.001-1.033) urolithiasis (IRR 1.015, 95% CI: 1.010-1.020), total renal disease (IRR 1.009, 95% CI: 1.006-1.011), UTIs (IRR 1.004, 95% CI: 1.000-1.007) and LUTIs (IRR 1.003, 95% CI: 1.000-1.006). An increased frequency of renal disease, including urolithiasis, acute kidney injury and urinary tract infections, is predicted with increasing temperatures from climate change. These results have clinical and public health implications for the management of renal diseases and demand tailored health services. Future research is warranted to analyze individual renal diseases with more comprehensive information regarding renal risk factors, and studies examining mortality for specific renal diseases.

[Study on sensitivity of climatic factors on influenza A (H1N1) based on classification and regression tree and wavelet analysis].

PubMed

Xiao, Hong; Lin, Xiao-ling; Dai, Xiang-yu; Gao, Li-dong; Chen, Bi-yun; Zhang, Xi-xing; Zhu, Pei-juan; Tian, Huai-yu

2012-05-01

To analyze the periodicity of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in Changsha in year 2009 and its correlation with sensitive climatic factors. The information of 5439 cases of influenza A (H1N1) and synchronous meteorological data during the period between May 22th and December 31st in year 2009 (223 days in total) in Changsha city were collected. The classification and regression tree (CART) was employed to screen the sensitive climatic factors on influenza A (H1N1); meanwhile, cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analysis were applied to assess and compare the periodicity of the pandemic disease and its association with the time-lag phase features of the sensitive climatic factors. The results of CART indicated that the daily minimum temperature and daily absolute humidity were the sensitive climatic factors for the popularity of influenza A (H1N1) in Changsha. The peak of the incidence of influenza A (H1N1) was in the period between October and December (Median (M) = 44.00 cases per day), simultaneously the daily minimum temperature (M = 13°C) and daily absolute humidity (M = 6.69 g/m(3)) were relatively low. The results of wavelet analysis demonstrated that a period of 16 days was found in the epidemic threshold in Changsha, while the daily minimum temperature and daily absolute humidity were the relatively sensitive climatic factors. The number of daily reported patients was statistically relevant to the daily minimum temperature and daily absolute humidity. The frequency domain was mostly in the period of (16 ± 2) days. In the initial stage of the disease (from August 9th and September 8th), a 6-day lag was found between the incidence and the daily minimum temperature. In the peak period of the disease, the daily minimum temperature and daily absolute humidity were negatively relevant to the incidence of the disease. In the pandemic period, the incidence of influenza A (H1N1) showed periodic features; and the sensitive climatic factors did have a "driving effect" on the incidence of influenza A (H1N1).

Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data for 223 Former-USSR Stations (NDP-040)

DOE Data Explorer

Razuvaev, V. N. [Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information-World Data Centre; Apasova, E. B. [Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information-World Data Centre; Martuganov, R. A. [Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information-World Data Centre

1990-01-01

The stations in this dataset are considered by RIHMI to comprise one of the best networks suitable for temperature and precipitation monitoring over the the former-USSR. Factors involved in choosing these 223 stations included length or record, amount of missing data, and achieving reasonably good geographic coverage. There are indeed many more stations with daily data over this part of the world, and hundreds more station records are available through NOAA's Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCND) database. The 223 stations comprising this database are included in GHCND, but different data processing, updating, and quality assurance methods/checks mean that the agreement between records will vary depending on the station. The relative quality and accuracy of the common station records in the two databases also cannot be easily assessed. As of this writing, most of the common stations contained in the GHCND have more recent records, but not necessarily records starting as early as the records available here. This database contains four variables: daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature, and daily total precipitation (liquid equivalent). Temperature were taken three times a day from 1881-1935, four times a day from 1936-65, and eight times a day since 1966. Daily mean temperature is defined as the average of all observations for each calendar day. Daily maximum/minimum temperatures are derived from maximum/minimum thermometer measurements. See the measurement description file for further details. Daily precipitation totals are also available (to the nearest tenth of a millimeter) for each station. Throughout the record, daily precipitation is defined as the total amount of precipitation recorded during a 24-h period, snowfall being converted to a liquid total by melting the snow in the gauge. From 1936 on, rain gauges were checked several times each day; the cumulative total of all observations during a calendar day was presumably used as the daily total. Again, see the measurement description file for further details.

Daily and seasonal activity patterns of free range South-American rattlesnake (Crotalus durissus).

PubMed

Tozetti, Alexandro M; Martins, Marcio

2013-09-01

This study aimed at describing daily and seasonal variation in the activity of a population of South-American rattlesnakes (Crotalus durissus) in a savanna like habitat (Cerrado) in Southeastern Brazil. Seasonal and daily activities of snakes were evaluated by the number of captures of snakes during road surveys, accidental encounters, and relocations by radio-tracking. Our results show that climatic variables such as air temperature and rainfall have little influence on the activity pattern of rattlesnakes. Our findings indicate that rattlesnakes spend most of the day resting and most of the night in ambush posture. The South-American rattlesnake is active throughout the year with a discrete peak in activity of males during the matting season. The possibility of maintaining activity levels even during the coldest and driest season can facilitate the colonization of several habitats in South America. This possibility currently facilitates the colonization of deforested areas by rattlesnakes.

Mortality related to air pollution with the moscow heat wave and wildfire of 2010.

PubMed

Shaposhnikov, Dmitry; Revich, Boris; Bellander, Tom; Bedada, Getahun Bero; Bottai, Matteo; Kharkova, Tatyana; Kvasha, Ekaterina; Lezina, Elena; Lind, Tomas; Semutnikova, Eugenia; Pershagen, Göran

2014-05-01

Prolonged high temperatures and air pollution from wildfires often occur together, and the two may interact in their effects on mortality. However, there are few data on such possible interactions. We analyzed day-to-day variations in the number of deaths in Moscow, Russia, in relation to air pollution levels and temperature during the disastrous heat wave and wildfire of 2010. Corresponding data for the period 2006-2009 were used for comparison. Daily average levels of PM10 and ozone were obtained from several continuous measurement stations. The daily number of nonaccidental deaths from specific causes was extracted from official records. Analyses of interactions considered the main effect of temperature as well as the added effect of prolonged high temperatures and the interaction with PM10. The major heat wave lasted for 44 days, with 24-hour average temperatures ranging from 24°C to 31°C and PM10 levels exceeding 300 μg/m on several days. There were close to 11,000 excess deaths from nonaccidental causes during this period, mainly among those older than 65 years. Increased risks also occurred in younger age groups. The most pronounced effects were for deaths from cardiovascular, respiratory, genitourinary, and nervous system diseases. Continuously increasing risks following prolonged high temperatures were apparent during the first 2 weeks of the heat wave. Interactions between high temperatures and air pollution from wildfires in excess of an additive effect contributed to more than 2000 deaths. Interactions between high temperatures and wildfire air pollution should be considered in risk assessments regarding health consequences of climate change.

The Impact of Rising Temperatures on Aircraft Takeoff Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coffel, E.; Horton, R. M.; Thompson, T. R.

2017-12-01

Steadily rising mean and extreme temperatures as a result of climate change will likely impact the air transportation system over the coming decades. As air temperatures rise at constant pressure, air density declines, resulting in less lift generation by an aircraft wing at a given airspeed and potentially imposing a weight restriction on departing aircraft. This study presents a general model to project future weight restrictions across a fleet of aircraft with different takeoff weights operating at a variety of airports. We construct performance models for five common commercial aircraft and 19 major airports around the world and use projections of daily temperatures from the CMIP5 model suite under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios to calculate required hourly weight restriction. We find that on average, 10-30% of annual flights departing at the time of daily maximum temperature may require some weight restriction below their maximum takeoff weights, with mean restrictions ranging from 0.5 to 4% of total aircraft payload and fuel capacity by mid- to late century. Both mid-sized and large aircraft are affected, and airports with short runways and high tempera- tures, or those at high elevations, will see the largest impacts. Our results suggest that weight restriction may impose a non-trivial cost on airlines and impact aviation operations around the world and that adaptation may be required in aircraft design, airline schedules, and/or runway lengths.

Accuracy evaluation of ClimGen weather generator and daily to hourly disaggregation methods in tropical conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safeeq, Mohammad; Fares, Ali

2011-12-01

Daily and sub-daily weather data are often required for hydrological and environmental modeling. Various weather generator programs have been used to generate synthetic climate data where observed climate data are limited. In this study, a weather data generator, ClimGen, was evaluated for generating information on daily precipitation, temperature, and wind speed at four tropical watersheds located in Hawai`i, USA. We also evaluated different daily to sub-daily weather data disaggregation methods for precipitation, air temperature, dew point temperature, and wind speed at Mākaha watershed. The hydrologic significance values of the different disaggregation methods were evaluated using Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model. MuDRain and diurnal method performed well over uniform distribution in disaggregating daily precipitation. However, the diurnal method is more consistent if accurate estimates of hourly precipitation intensities are desired. All of the air temperature disaggregation methods performed reasonably well, but goodness-of-fit statistics were slightly better for sine curve model with 2 h lag. Cosine model performed better than random model in disaggregating daily wind speed. The largest differences in annual water balance were related to wind speed followed by precipitation and dew point temperature. Simulated hourly streamflow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge were less sensitive to the method of disaggregating daily air temperature. ClimGen performed well in generating the minimum and maximum temperature and wind speed. However, for precipitation, it clearly underestimated the number of extreme rainfall events with an intensity of >100 mm/day in all four locations. ClimGen was unable to replicate the distribution of observed precipitation at three locations (Honolulu, Kahului, and Hilo). ClimGen was able to reproduce the distributions of observed minimum temperature at Kahului and wind speed at Kahului and Hilo. Although the weather data generation and disaggregation methods were concentrated in a few Hawaiian watersheds, the results presented can be used to similar mountainous location settings, as well as any specific locations aimed at furthering the site-specific performance evaluation of these tested models.

The EUSTACE project: delivering global, daily information on surface air temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rayner, Nick

2017-04-01

Day-to-day variations in surface air temperature affect society in many ways; however, daily surface air temperature measurements are not available everywhere. A global daily analysis cannot be achieved with measurements made in situ alone, so incorporation of satellite retrievals is needed. To achieve this, in the EUSTACE project (2015-June 2018, https://www.eustaceproject.eu) we are developing an understanding of the relationships between traditional (land and marine) surface air temperature measurements and retrievals of surface skin temperature from satellite measurements, i.e. Land Surface Temperature, Ice Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Temperature and Lake Surface Water Temperature. Here we discuss the science needed to produce a fully-global daily analysis (or ensemble of analyses) of surface air temperature on the centennial scale, integrating different ground-based and satellite-borne data types. Information contained in the satellite retrievals is used to create globally-complete fields in the past, using statistical models of how surface air temperature varies in a connected way from place to place. As the data volumes involved are considerable, such work needs to include development of new "Big Data" analysis methods. We will present recent progress along this road in the EUSTACE project: 1. providing new, consistent, multi-component estimates of uncertainty in surface skin temperature retrievals from satellites; 2. identifying inhomogeneities in daily surface air temperature measurement series from weather stations and correcting for these over Europe; 3. estimating surface air temperature over all surfaces of Earth from surface skin temperature retrievals; 4. using new statistical techniques to provide information on higher spatial and temporal scales than currently available, making optimum use of information in data-rich eras. Information will also be given on how interested users can become involved.

The EUSTACE project: delivering global, daily information on surface air temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghent, D.; Rayner, N. A.

2016-12-01

Day-to-day variations in surface air temperature affect society in many ways; however, daily surface air temperature measurements are not available everywhere. A global daily analysis cannot be achieved with measurements made in situ alone, so incorporation of satellite retrievals is needed. To achieve this, in the EUSTACE project (2015-June 2018, https://www.eustaceproject.eu) we are developing an understanding of the relationships between traditional (land and marine) surface air temperature measurements and retrievals of surface skin temperature from satellite measurements, i.e. Land Surface Temperature, Ice Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Temperature and Lake Surface Water Temperature. Here we discuss the science needed to produce a fully-global daily analysis (or ensemble of analyses) of surface air temperature on the centennial scale, integrating different ground-based and satellite-borne data types. Information contained in the satellite retrievals is used to create globally-complete fields in the past, using statistical models of how surface air temperature varies in a connected way from place to place. As the data volumes involved are considerable, such work needs to include development of new "Big Data" analysis methods. We will present recent progress along this road in the EUSTACE project, i.e.: • providing new, consistent, multi-component estimates of uncertainty in surface skin temperature retrievals from satellites; • identifying inhomogeneities in daily surface air temperature measurement series from weather stations and correcting for these over Europe; • estimating surface air temperature over all surfaces of Earth from surface skin temperature retrievals; • using new statistical techniques to provide information on higher spatial and temporal scales than currently available, making optimum use of information in data-rich eras. Information will also be given on how interested users can become involved.

Temperature changes, temperature extremes, and their relationship to emergency department visits and hospitalizations for sickle cell crisis.

PubMed

Smith, Wally R; Coyne, Patrick; Smith, Virginia S; Mercier, Bruce

2003-09-01

Weather changes are among the proposed precursors of painful sickle cell crises. However, epidemiologic data are mixed regarding the relationship between ambient temperature and crisis frequency. To study this relationship among a local sickle cell disease population, emergency department (ED) visits and admissions were evaluated in adults with sickle cell crisis as the primary diagnosis at a major teaching hospital in a temperate climate. Official daily ambient temperatures (average for that day) were obtained from the National Climate Data Center for the days patients visited the ED or were hospitalized, and for 24 or 48 hours prior. Daily ED visit counts and admission counts were correlated with the visit/admission day's ambient temperature, with the ambient temperature 24 hours before admission, and with the magnitude of change in daily ambient temperature over the prior 24 or 48 hours. For all correlations, statistical significance was defined as a p value of <0.01 and clinical significance was defined as a moderate or greater correlation, absolute value of r >/= 0.30. ED visits or admissions correlated statistically, but not clinically, with daily temperatures. On days when temperatures were <32 degrees F or >80 degrees F, these correlations were statistically significant, but clinical significance was variable. ED visits or admissions correlated only statistically with temperatures 24 hours prior, even on days when temperatures were <32 degrees F. When temperatures were >80 degrees F, the correlations were statistically significant, but there was a reverse, clinically significant correlation between admissions and temperatures. Finally, only statistically significant correlations were found between ED visits or admissions and change in temperature over the prior 24 or 48 hours. Weak or inconsistent confirmation of a relationship was found between daily ambient temperatures and ED visits or hospital admissions for sickle cell crises.

Weather conditions associated with autumn migration by mule deer in Wyoming.

PubMed

Rittenhouse, Chadwick D; Mong, Tony W; Hart, Thomas

2015-01-01

Maintaining ecological integrity necessitates a proactive approach of identifying and acquiring lands to conserve unfragmented landscapes, as well as evaluating existing mitigation strategies to increase connectivity in fragmented landscapes. The increased use of highway underpasses and overpasses to restore connectivity for wildlife species offers clear conservation benefits, yet also presents a unique opportunity to understand how weather conditions may impact movement of wildlife species. We used remote camera observations (19,480) from an existing wildlife highway underpass in Wyoming and daily meteorological observations to quantify weather conditions associated with autumn migration of mule deer in 2009 and 2010. We identified minimal daily temperature and snow depth as proximate cues associated with mule deer migration to winter range. These weather cues were consistent across does and bucks, but differed slightly by year. Additionally, extreme early season snow depth or cold temperature events appear to be associated with onset of migration. This information will assist wildlife managers and transportation officials as they plan future projects to maintain and enhance migration routes for mule deer.

Effect of different constant incubation temperatures on egg survival and embryonic development in lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brooke, L.T.

1975-01-01

Eggs of lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) were incubated in a constant-flow incubator at constant temperatures of 0.5, 2.0, 4.0, 5.9, 7.8, and 10.0 C. The time from fertilization to median hatch was inversely related to temperature, and ranged from 41.7 days at 10.0 C to 182 days at 0.5 C. The percentage hatch was highest (70.9-73.3%) at 4.0, 5.9, and 7.8 C, and was greatly reduced (6.0-28.4%) at 0.5, 2.0, and 10.0 C. The mortality of embryos was greatest during the early stages of development. Abnormally developed fry were most frequent (85.9% of the hatch) at 10.0 C, and least frequent (2.8%) at 4.0 C. Mean lengths of fry at hatching were shorter at 7.8 and 10.0 C (12.4 and 8.8 mm, respectively) than at lower temperatures (13.1 to 13.5 mm). The optimum temperature range for incubation of lake whitefish eggs was 3.2 to 8.1 C. Equations were derived for predicting development time to 20 successive stages, and to hatching, at constant incubation temperatures and at fluctuating daily mean water temperatures.

Summer outdoor temperature and occupational heat-related illnesses in Quebec (Canada)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adam-Poupart, Ariane; Smargiassi, Audrey; Institut national de santé publique du Québec

2014-10-15

Background: Predicted rise in global mean temperature and intensification of heat waves associated with climate change present an increasing challenge for occupational health and safety. Although important scientific knowledge has been gathered on the health effects of heat, very few studies have focused on quantifying the association between outdoor heat and mortality or morbidity among workers. Objective: To quantify the association between occupational heat-related illnesses and exposure to summer outdoor temperatures. Methods: We modeled 259 heat-related illnesses compensated by the Workers' Compensation Board of Quebec between May and September, from 1998 to 2010, with maximum daily summer outdoor temperatures inmore » 16 health regions of Quebec (Canada) using generalized linear models with negative binomial distributions, and estimated the pooled effect sizes for all regions combined, by sex and age groups, and for different time lags with random-effect models for meta-analyses. Results: The mean daily compensation count was 0.13 for all regions of Quebec combined. The relationship between daily counts of compensations and maximum daily temperatures was log-linear; the pooled incidence rate ratio (IRR) of daily heat-related compensations per 1 °C increase in daily maximum temperatures was 1.419 (95% CI 1.326 to 1.520). Associations were similar for men and women and by age groups. Increases in daily maximum temperatures at lags 1 and 2 and for two and three-day lag averages were also associated with increases in daily counts of compensations (IRRs of 1.206 to 1.471 for every 1 °C increase in temperature). Conclusion: This study is the first to quantify the association between occupational heat-related illnesses and exposure to summer temperatures in Canada. The model (risk function) developed in this study could be useful to improve the assessment of future impacts of predicted summer outdoor temperatures on workers and vulnerable groups, particularly in colder temperate zones. - Highlights: • 259 heat-related compensated illnesses were modeled with ambient temperature • An overall risk ratio of 1.419 (95% CI 1.326–1.520) for every 1 °C increase was found • Risk estimates were similar for men and women and by large age groups. • There were little lag effects (IRRs of 1.206 to 1.471 for every 1 °C increase)« less

Integrating solar energy and climate research into science education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betts, Alan K.; Hamilton, James; Ligon, Sam; Mahar, Ann Marie

2016-01-01

This paper analyzes multi-year records of solar flux and climate data from two solar power sites in Vermont. We show the inter-annual differences of temperature, wind, panel solar flux, electrical power production, and cloud cover. Power production has a linear relation to a dimensionless measure of the transmission of sunlight through the cloud field. The difference between panel and air temperatures reaches 24°C with high solar flux and low wind speed. High panel temperatures that occur in summer with low wind speeds and clear skies can reduce power production by as much as 13%. The intercomparison of two sites 63 km apart shows that while temperature is highly correlated on daily (R2=0.98) and hourly (R2=0.94) timescales, the correlation of panel solar flux drops markedly from daily (R2=0.86) to hourly (R2=0.63) timescales. Minimum temperatures change little with cloud cover, but the diurnal temperature range shows a nearly linear increase with falling cloud cover to 16°C under nearly clear skies, similar to results from the Canadian Prairies. The availability of these new solar and climate datasets allows local student groups, a Rutland High School team here, to explore the coupled relationships between climate, clouds, and renewable power production. As our society makes major changes in our energy infrastructure in response to climate change, it is important that we accelerate the technical education of high school students using real-world data.

a Weather Monitoring System for Application to Apple and Corn Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stirm, Walter Leroy

Many crop management decisions are based on weather -crop development relationships. Daily weather data is currently used in most crop development research and applied models. Present weather and computer technology now makes possible monitoring of crop development on a realtime basis. This research tests a method of computing crop sensitive temperatures for corn and apple using standard hourly meteorological data. The method also makes use of detailed plant physiological stage measurements to determine timing of vital cultural operations tied to the observed weather conditions. The sensitive temperature method incorporates very short term weather variability accounting for changes in the cloud cover, radiation rates, evaporative cooling and other factors involved in the plant's energy balance. The relationship of plant and weather measurements are also used to determine corn emergence, corn grain drydown rate and fruit harvest duration. The monitoring system also incorporates a crop growth unit forecast technique employing short and medium range temperature forecasts of the National Weather Service. The projections of growth units are made for five and ten days into the future. Predicted growth unit accumulations are compared to historical growth unit accumulations to determine the forecast stage. The sensitive temperature crop monitoring system removes some of the error involved in evaluation of growth units by average daily temperature. Carry over maximum and minimums, extended duration of warm or cool periods within the day and disruption of diurnal temperature curve by passage of fronts are eliminated.

Implications of extreme sexual size dimorphism for thermoregulation in a freshwater turtle.

PubMed

Bulté, Grégory; Blouin-Demers, Gabriel

2010-02-01

Sexual size dimorphism (SSD) is a common phenomenon in animals. In many species females are substantially larger than males. Because body size plays a central role in modulating the body temperature (T (b)) of ectotherms, intersexual differences in body size may lead to important intersexual differences in thermoregulation. In addition, because SSD is realized by differences in growth rate and because growth rate is strongly temperature dependent in ectotherms, a conflict between male reproductive behaviour and thermoregulation may affect the expression of SSD. In this study, we investigated the thermal implications of SSD in a reptile exhibiting spectacular female-biased SSD: the northern map turtle (Graptemys geographica). Over three seasons, we collected >150,000 measurements of T (b) in free-ranging adult and juvenile northern map turtles using surgically implanted miniature temperature loggers. Northern map turtles exhibited seasonal patterns of thermoregulation typical of reptiles in northern latitudes, but we found that large adult females experienced a lower daily maximum T (b) and a narrower daily range of T (b) than adult males and small juvenile females. In addition, despite more time spent basking, large adult females were not able to thermoregulate as accurately as small turtles. Our findings strongly suggest that body size limits the ability to thermoregulate accurately in large females. By comparing thermoregulatory patterns between adult males and juvenile females of similar body size, we found no evidence that male reproductive behaviours are an impediment to thermoregulation. We also quantified the thermal significance of basking behaviour. We found, contrary to previous findings, that aerial basking allows northern map turtles to raise their T (b) substantially above water temperature, indicating that basking behaviour likely plays an important role in thermoregulation.

Evaluation of Daily Extreme Precipitation Derived From Long-term Global Satellite Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPEs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prat, O. P.; Nelson, B. R.; Nickl, E.; Ferraro, R. R.

2017-12-01

This study evaluates the ability of different satellite-based precipitation products to capture daily precipitation extremes over the entire globe. The satellite products considered are the datasets belonging to the Reference Environmental Data Records (REDRs) program (PERSIANN-CDR, GPCP, CMORPH, AMSU-A,B, Hydrologic bundle). Those products provide long-term global records of daily adjusted Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPEs) that range from 20-year (CMORPH-CDR) to 35-year (PERSIANN-CDR, GPCP) record of daily adjusted global precipitation. The AMSU-A,B, Hydro-bundle is an 11-year record of daily rain rate over land and ocean, snow cover and surface temperature over land, and sea ice concentration, cloud liquid water, and total precipitable water over ocean among others. The aim of this work is to evaluate the ability of the different satellite QPE products to capture daily precipitation extremes. This evaluation will also include comparison with in-situ data sets at the daily scale from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-Daily), the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) gridded full data daily product, and the US Climate Reference Network (USCRN). In addition, while the products mentioned above only provide QPEs, the AMSU-A,B hydro-bundle provides additional hydrological information (precipitable water, cloud liquid water, snow cover, sea ice concentration). We will also present an analysis of those additional variables available from global satellite measurements and their relevance and complementarity in the context of long-term hydrological and climate studies.

Using Multiple Metrics to Analyze Trends and Sensitivity of Climate Variability in New York City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, J.; Towey, K.; Booth, J. F.; Baez, S. D.

2017-12-01

As the overall temperature of Earth continues to warm, changes in the Earth's climate are being observed through extreme weather events, such as heavy precipitation events and heat waves. This study examines the daily precipitation and temperature record of the greater New York City region during the 1979-2014 period. Daily station observations from three greater New York City airports: John F. Kennedy (JFK), LaGuardia (LGA) and Newark (EWR), are used in this study. Multiple statistical metrics are used in this study to analyze trends and variability in temperature and precipitation in the greater New York City region. The temperature climatology reveals a distinct seasonal cycle, while the precipitation climatology exhibits greater annual variability. Two types of thresholds are used to examine the variability of extreme events: extreme threshold and daily anomaly threshold. The extreme threshold indicates how the strength of the overall maximum is changing whereas the daily anomaly threshold indicates if the strength of the daily maximum is changing over time. We observed an increase in the frequency of anomalous daily precipitation events over the last 36 years, with the greatest frequency occurring in 2011. The most extreme precipitation events occur during the months of late summer through early fall, with approximately four expected extreme events occurring per year during the summer and fall. For temperature, the greatest frequency and variation in temperature anomalies occur during winter and spring. In addition, temperature variance is also analyzed to determine if there is greater day-to-day temperature variability today than in the past.

Daily Mean Temperature Affects Urolithiasis Presentation in Seoul: a Time-series Analysis.

PubMed

Lee, SeoYeon; Kim, Min-Su; Kim, Jung Hoon; Kwon, Jong Kyou; Chi, Byung Hoon; Kim, Jin Wook; Chang, In Ho

2016-05-01

This study aimed to investigate the overall cumulative exposure-response and the lag response relationships between daily temperature and urolithiasis presentation in Seoul. Using a time-series design and distributing lag nonlinear methods, we estimated the relative risk (RR) of urolithiasis presentation associated with mean daily temperature, including the cumulative RR for a 20 days period, and RR for individual daily lag through 20 days. We analyzed data from 14,518 patients of 4 hospitals emergency department who sought medical evaluation or treatment of urolithiasis from 2005-2013 in Seoul. RR was estimated according to sex and age. Associations between mean daily temperature and urolithiasis presentation were not monotonic. Furthermore, there was variation in the exposure-response curve shapes and the strength of association at different temperatures, although in most cases RRs increased for temperatures above the 13°C reference value. The RRs for urolothiasis at 29°C vs. 13°C were 2.54 in all patients (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.67-3.87), 2.59 in male (95% CI, 1.56-4.32), 2.42 in female (95% CI, 1.15-5.07), 3.83 in male less than 40 years old (95% CI, 1.78-8.26), and 2.47 in male between 40 and 60 years old (95% CI, 1.15-5.34). Consistent trends of increasing RR of urolithiasis presentation were observed within 5 days of high temperatures across all groups. Urolithiasis presentation increased with high temperature with higher daily mean temperatures, with the strongest associations estimated for lags of only a few days, in Seoul, a metropolitan city in Korea.

Effects of Barometric Pressure and Temperature on Acute Ischemic Stroke Hospitalization in Augusta, GA.

PubMed

Guan, Weihua; Clay, Sandra J; Sloan, Gloria J; Pretlow, Lester G

2018-06-24

Several studies worldwide have demonstrated significant relationships between meteorological parameters and stroke events. However, authors often reported discordant effects of both barometric pressure and air temperature on stroke occurrence. The present study investigated whether there was an association between weather parameters (barometric pressure and temperature) and ischemic stroke hospitalization. The aim of the study was to find out whether daily barometric pressure may be used as a prognostic variable to evaluate the workload change of a neurological intensive care unit. We conducted a retrospective review study in which we collected the independent (barometric pressure and temperature) and dependent variables (stroke hospitalization) every 24 h for the periods 10/1/2016-4/30/2017 at Augusta University Medical Center of Augusta, GA. We analyzed the data with zero-inflated Poisson model to assess the relationship between the barometric pressure, temperature, and daily stroke hospitalization. The results showed that there was a significantly correlation between daily barometric pressure variation and daily stroke hospitalization, especially on elder male patients (≥ 65). Stroke events were more likely to occur in the patients with risk factors than in those without risk factors when exposed to barometric pressure and temperature changes. Decreased barometric pressure and increased temperature were associated with increased daily stroke hospitalization. Furthermore, there was a potential delayed effect of increased stroke events after cold temperature exposure. Barometric pressure and temperature changes over the preceding 24 h are associated with daily stroke hospitalization. These findings may enhance our understanding of relationship between stroke and weather and maybe used in the development of public health strategies to minimize the weather-related stroke risk.

Terra and Aqua satellites track tiger mosquito invasion: modelling the potential distribution of Aedes albopictus in north-eastern Italy

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The continuing spread of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus in Europe is of increasing public health concern due to the potential risk of new outbreaks of exotic vector-borne diseases that this species can transmit as competent vector. We predicted the most favorable areas for a short term invasion of Ae. albopictus in north-eastern Italy using reconstructed daily satellite data time series (MODIS Land Surface Temperature maps, LST). We reconstructed more than 11,000 daily MODIS LST maps for the period 2001-09 (i.e. performed spatial and temporal gap-filling) in an Open Source GIS framework. We aggregated these LST maps over time and identified the potential distribution areas of Ae. albopictus by adapting published temperature threshold values using three variables as predictors (0°C for mean January temperatures, 11°C for annual mean temperatures and 1350 growing degree days filtered for areas with autumnal mean temperatures > 11°C). The resulting maps were integrated into the final potential distribution map and this was compared with the known current distribution of Ae. albopictus in north-eastern Italy. Results LST maps show the microclimatic characteristics peculiar to complex terrains, which would not be visible in maps commonly derived from interpolated meteorological station data. The patterns of the three indicator variables partially differ from each other, while winter temperature is the determining limiting factor for the distribution of Ae. albopictus. All three variables show a similar spatial pattern with some local differences, in particular in the northern part of the study area (upper Adige valley). Conclusions Reconstructed daily land surface temperature data from satellites can be used to predict areas of short term invasion of the tiger mosquito with sufficient accuracy (200 m pixel resolution size). Furthermore, they may be applied to other species of arthropod of medical interest for which temperature is a relevant limiting factor. The results indicate that, during the next few years, the tiger mosquito will probably spread toward northern latitudes and higher altitudes in north-eastern Italy, which will considerably expand the range of the current distribution of this species. PMID:21812983

The interrelationship between dengue incidence and diurnal ranges of temperature and humidity in a Sri Lankan city and its potential applications

PubMed Central

Ehelepola, N. D. B.; Ariyaratne, Kusalika

2015-01-01

Background Temperature, humidity, and other weather variables influence dengue transmission. Published studies show how the diurnal fluctuations of temperature around different mean temperatures influence dengue transmission. There are no published studies about the correlation between diurnal range of humidity and dengue transmission. Objective The goals of this study were to determine the correlation between dengue incidence and diurnal fluctuations of temperature and humidity in the Sri Lankan city of Kandy and to explore the possibilities of using that information for better control of dengue. Design We calculated the weekly dengue incidence in Kandy during the period 2003–2012, after collecting data on all of the reported dengue patients and estimated midyear populations. Data on daily maximum and minimum temperatures and night-time and daytime humidity were obtained from two weather stations, averaged, and converted into weekly data. The number of days per week with a diurnal temperature range (DTR) of >10°C and <10°C and the number of days per week with a diurnal humidity range (DHR) of >20 and <15% were calculated. Wavelet time series analysis was performed to determine the correlation between dengue incidence and diurnal ranges of temperature and humidity. Results There were negative correlations between dengue incidence and a DTR >10°C and a DHR >20% with 3.3-week and 4-week lag periods, respectively. Additionally, positive correlations between dengue incidence and a DTR <10°C and a DHR <15% with 3- and 4-week lag periods, respectively, were discovered. Conclusions These findings are consistent with the results of previous entomological studies and theoretical models of DTR and dengue transmission correlation. It is important to conduct similar studies on diurnal fluctuations of humidity in the future. We suggest ways and means to use this information for local dengue control and to mitigate the potential effects of the ongoing global reduction of DTR on dengue incidence. PMID:26632645

Age-related variation in body temperature, thermoregulation and activity in a thermally polymorphic dragonfly

PubMed

Marden; Kramer; Frisch

1996-01-01

Thoracic temperatures (Tth) of Libellula pulchella dragonflies during activity in the field were compared between age classes and with laboratory measures of optimal thoracic temperature for flight performance (Tth,opt; a trait that varies during adult maturation in this species). Newly emerged adults (tenerals) had mean Tth values during flight (34.5 °C; range 29-40 °C) that did not differ from their mean Tth,opt (34.6 °C; range 28.5-43.8 °C). Mature adults had higher and more precisely regulated thoracic temperatures (mean Tth 41.7 °C; range 37.5-45.2 °C), which were somewhat lower than their mean Tth,opt (43.6 °C; range 38.7-49.9 °C). Among matures, behaviors requiring the highest levels of flight exertion (aerial copulation; mate guarding; escalated territorial contests) caused an elevation of Tth above that of concurrently sampled individuals engaged in routine flight (mean Tth difference 1.3 °C), which raised mean Tth to a level that was not significantly different from Tth,opt (42.5 versus 43.5 °C). Compared with tenerals, matures spent more time flying, made longer-duration flights and showed a more restricted pattern of daily activity. Sympatric Anax junius dragonflies that regulate Tth endothermically had a uniform pattern of activity across the entire day, i.e. occupied a broader ecological niche than that of L. pulchella. These results support the hypotheses that optimal body temperature evolves to match the elevated body temperatures that occur during exercise and that the ecological benefits of an expanded niche are a secondary benefit rather than a primary selective force during the evolution of homeothermy and high body temperatures.

Spatiotemporal Variability of Drought in Pakistan through High-Resolution Daily Gridded In-Situ Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bashir, F.; Zeng, X.; Gupta, H. V.; Hazenberg, P.

2017-12-01

Drought as an extreme event may have far reaching socio-economic impacts on agriculture based economies like Pakistan. Effective assessment of drought requires high resolution spatiotemporally continuous hydrometeorological information. For this purpose, new in-situ daily observations based gridded analyses of precipitation, maximum, minimum and mean temperature and diurnal temperature range are developed, that covers whole Pakistan on 0.01º latitude-longitude for a 54-year period (1960-2013). The number of participating meteorological observatories used in these gridded analyses is 2 to 6 times greater than any other similar product available. This data set is used to identify extreme wet and dry periods and their spatial patterns across Pakistan using Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Periodicity of extreme events is estimated at seasonal to decadal scales. Spatiotemporal signatures of drought incidence indicating its extent and longevity in different areas may help water resource managers and policy makers to mitigate the severity of the drought and its impact on food security through suitable adaptive techniques. Moreover, this high resolution gridded in-situ observations of precipitation and temperature is used to evaluate other coarser-resolution gridded products.

Thermal surveillance of Cascade Range volcanoes using ERTS-1 multispectral scanner, aircraft imaging systems, and ground-based data communication platforms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedman, J. D.; Frank, D. G.; Preble, D.; Painter, J. E.

1973-01-01

A combination of infrared images depicting areas of thermal emission and ground calibration points have proved to be particularly useful in plotting time-dependent changes in surface temperatures and radiance and in delimiting areas of predominantly convective heat flow to the earth's surface in the Cascade Range and on Surtsey Volcano, Iceland. In an integrated experiment group using ERTS-1 multispectral scanner (MSS) and aircraft infrared imaging systems in conjunction with multiple thermistor arrays, volcano surface temperatures are relayed daily to Washington via data communication platform (DCP) transmitters and ERTS-1. ERTS-1 MSS imagery has revealed curvilinear structures at Lassen, the full extent of which have not been previously mapped. Interestingly, the major surface thermal manifestations at Lassen are aligned along these structures, particularly in the Warner Valley.

Frequency of urban building fires as related to daily weather conditions

Treesearch

Arthur R. Pirsko; Wallace L. Fons

1956-01-01

Daily weather elements of precipitation, wind, mean temperature, relative humidity, and dew-point temperature for selected urban areas (approximately 850,000 population) in the United States are statistically analyzed to determine their correlation with daily number of building fires. The frequency of urban building fires is found to be significantly correlated with...

Modeling maximum daily temperature using a varying coefficient regression model

Treesearch

Han Li; Xinwei Deng; Dong-Yum Kim; Eric P. Smith

2014-01-01

Relationships between stream water and air temperatures are often modeled using linear or nonlinear regression methods. Despite a strong relationship between water and air temperatures and a variety of models that are effective for data summarized on a weekly basis, such models did not yield consistently good predictions for summaries such as daily maximum temperature...

Effects of environmental conditions on onset of xylem growth in Pinus sylvestris under drought.

PubMed

Swidrak, Irene; Gruber, Andreas; Kofler, Werner; Oberhuber, Walter

2011-05-01

We determined the influence of environmental factors (air and soil temperature, precipitation, photoperiod) on onset of xylem growth in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) within a dry inner Alpine valley (750 m a.s.l., Tyrol, Austria) by repeatedly sampling micro-cores throughout 2007-10 at two sites (xeric and dry-mesic) at the start of the growing season. Temperature sums were calculated in degree-days (DD) ≥5 °C from 1 January and 20 March, i.e., spring equinox, to account for photoperiodic control of release from winter dormancy. Threshold temperatures at which xylogenesis had a 0.5 probability of being active were calculated by logistic regression. Onset of xylem growth, which was not significantly different between the xeric and dry-mesic sites, ranged from mid-April in 2007 to early May in 2008. Among most study years, statistically significant differences (P<0.05) in onset of xylem growth were detected. Mean air temperature sums calculated from 1 January until onset of xylem growth were 230 ± 44 DD (mean ± standard deviation) at the xeric site and 205 ± 36 DD at the dry-mesic site. Temperature sums calculated from spring equinox until onset of xylem growth showed somewhat less variability during the 4-year study period, amounting to 144 ± 10 and 137 ± 12 DD at the xeric and dry-mesic sites, respectively. At both sites, xylem growth was active when daily minimum, mean and maximum air temperatures were 5.3, 10.1 and 16.2 °C, respectively. Soil temperature thresholds and DD until onset of xylem growth differed significantly between sites, indicating minor importance of root-zone temperature for onset of xylem growth. Although spring precipitation is known to limit radial growth in P. sylvestris exposed to a dry inner Alpine climate, the results of this study revealed that (i) a daily minimum air temperature threshold for onset of xylem growth in the range 5-6 °C exists and (ii) air temperature sum rather than precipitation or soil temperature triggers start of xylem growth. Based on these findings, we suggest that drought stress forces P. sylvestris to draw upon water reserves in the stem for enlargement of first tracheids after cambial resumption in spring. © The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Effects of environmental conditions on onset of xylem growth in Pinus sylvestris under drought

PubMed Central

Swidrak, Irene; Gruber, Andreas; Kofler, Werner; Oberhuber, Walter

2012-01-01

Summary We determined influence of environmental factors (air and soil temperature, precipitation, photoperiod) on onset of xylem growth in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) within a dry inner Alpine valley (750 m a.s.l., Tyrol, Austria) by repeatedly sampling micro-cores throughout 2007-2010 at two sites (xeric and dry-mesic) at the start of the growing season. Temperature sums were calculated in degree-days (DD) ≥ 5 °C from 1 January and 20 March, i.e. spring equinox, to account for photoperiodic control of release from winter dormancy. Threshold temperatures at which xylogenesis had a 0.5 probability of being active were calculated by logistic regression. Onset of xylem growth, which was not significantly different between the xeric and dry-mesic site, ranged from mid-April in 2007 to early May in 2008. Among most study years statistically significant differences (P < 0.05) in onset of xylem growth were detected. Mean air temperature sums calculated from 1 January until onset of xylem growth were 230 ± 44 DD (mean ± standard deviation) at the xeric and 205 ± 36 DD at the dry-mesic site. Temperature sums calculated from spring equinox until onset of xylem growth showed quite less variability during the four year study period amounting to 144 ± 10 and 137 ± 12 DD at the xeric and dry-mesic site, respectively. At both sites xylem growth was active when daily minimum, mean and maximum air temperatures were 5.3, 10.1 and 16.2 °C, respectively. Soil temperature thresholds and DD until onset of xylem growth differed significantly between sites indicating minor importance of root-zone temperature for onset of xylem growth. Although spring precipitation is known to limit radial growth in P. sylvestris exposed to dry inner Alpine climate, results of this study revealed that (i) a daily minimum air temperature threshold for onset of xylem growth in the range of 5-6 °C exists and (ii) air temperature sum rather than precipitation or soil temperature triggers start of xylem growth. Based on these findings we suggest that drought stress forces P. sylvestris to draw upon water reserves in the stem for enlargement of first tracheids after cambial resumption in spring. PMID:21593011

Extremes of heat, drought and precipitation depress reproductive performance in shortgrass prairie passerines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conrey, Reesa Y.; Skagen, Susan K.; Yackel, Amy; Panjabi, Arvind O.

2016-01-01

Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it is likely to exacerbate many identified threats to animal populations. In recent decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American bird species, a loss thought to be due to habitat loss and fragmentation and changing agricultural practices. Climate change poses additional threats of unknown magnitude to these already declining populations. We examined how seasonal and daily weather conditions over 10 years influenced nest survival of five species of insectivorous passerines native to the shortgrass prairie and evaluate our findings relative to future climate predictions for this region. Daily nest survival (n = 870) was best predicted by a combination of daily and seasonal weather variables, age of nest, time in season and bird habitat guild. Within a season, survival rates were lower on very hot days (temperatures ≥ 35 °C), on dry days (with a lag of 1 day) and on stormy days (especially for those species nesting in shorter vegetation). Across years, survival rates were also lower during warmer and drier breeding seasons. Clutch sizes were larger when early spring temperatures were cool and the week prior to egg-laying was wetter and warming. Climate change is likely to exacerbate grassland bird population declines because projected climate conditions include rising temperatures, more prolonged drought and more intense storms as the hydrological cycle is altered. Under varying realistic scenarios, nest success estimates were halved compared to their current average value when models both increased the temperature (3 °C) and decreased precipitation (two additional dry days during a nesting period), thus underscoring a sense of urgency in identifying and addressing the current causes of range-wide declines.

A new approach to predict soil temperature under vegetated surfaces.

PubMed

Dolschak, Klaus; Gartner, Karl; Berger, Torsten W

2015-12-01

In this article, the setup and the application of an empirical model, based on Newton's law of cooling, capable to predict daily mean soil temperature ( T soil ) under vegetated surfaces, is described. The only input variable, necessary to run the model, is a time series of daily mean air temperature. The simulator employs 9 empirical parameters, which were estimated by inverse modeling. The model, which primarily addresses forested sites, incorporates the effect of snow cover and soil freezing on soil temperature. The model was applied to several temperate forest sites, managing the split between Central Europe (Austria) and the United States (Harvard Forest, Massachusetts; Hubbard Brook, New Hampshire), aiming to cover a broad range of site characteristics. Investigated stands differ fundamentally in stand composition, elevation, exposition, annual mean temperature, precipitation regime, as well as in the duration of winter snow cover. At last, to explore the limits of the formulation, the simulator was applied to non-forest sites (Illinois), where soil temperature was recorded under short cut grass. The model was parameterized, specifically to site and measurement depth. After calibration of the model, an evaluation was performed, using ~50 % of the available data. In each case, the simulator was capable to deliver a feasible prediction of soil temperature in the validation time interval. To evaluate the practical suitability of the simulator, the minimum amount of soil temperature point measurements, necessary to yield expedient model performance was determined. In the investigated case 13-20 point observations, uniformly distributed within an 11-year timeframe, have been proven sufficient to yield sound model performance (root mean square error <0.9 °C, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency >0.97). This makes the model suitable for the application on sites, where the information on soil temperature is discontinuous or scarce.

Impact of short-term temperature variability on emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia stratified by season of birth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Desheng; Zhang, Xulai; Xu, Zhiwei; Cheng, Jian; Xie, Mingyu; Zhang, Heng; Wang, Shusi; Li, Kesheng; Yang, Huihui; Wen, Liying; Wang, Xu; Su, Hong

2017-04-01

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) and temperature change between neighboring days (TCN) are important meteorological indicators closely associated with global climate change. However, up to date, there have been no studies addressing the impacts of both DTR and TCN on emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia. We conducted a time-series analysis to assess the relationship between temperature variability and daily schizophrenia onset in Hefei, an inland city in southeast China. Daily meteorological data and emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia from 2005 to 2014 in Hefei were collected. After stratifying by season of birth, Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to examine the relationship between temperature variability and schizophrenia, adjusting for long-term trend and seasonality, mean temperature, and relative humidity. Our analysis revealed that extreme temperature variability may increase the risk for schizophrenia onset among patients born in spring, while no such association was found in patients born in summer and autumn. In patients born in spring, the relative risks of extremely high DTR comparing the 95th and 99th percentiles with the reference (50th, 10 °C) at 3-day lag were 1.078 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.025-1.135) and 1.159 (95 % CI 1.050-1.279), respectively. For TCN effects, only comparing 99th percentile with reference (50th, 0.7 °C) was significantly associated with emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia (relative risk (RR) 1.111, 95 % CI 1.002-1.231). This study suggested that exposure to extreme temperature variability in short-term may trigger later days of schizophrenia onset for patients born in spring, which may have important implications for developing intervention strategies to prevent large temperature variability exposure.

Impact of short-term temperature variability on emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia stratified by season of birth.

PubMed

Zhao, Desheng; Zhang, Xulai; Xu, Zhiwei; Cheng, Jian; Xie, Mingyu; Zhang, Heng; Wang, Shusi; Li, Kesheng; Yang, Huihui; Wen, Liying; Wang, Xu; Su, Hong

2017-04-01

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) and temperature change between neighboring days (TCN) are important meteorological indicators closely associated with global climate change. However, up to date, there have been no studies addressing the impacts of both DTR and TCN on emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia. We conducted a time-series analysis to assess the relationship between temperature variability and daily schizophrenia onset in Hefei, an inland city in southeast China. Daily meteorological data and emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia from 2005 to 2014 in Hefei were collected. After stratifying by season of birth, Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to examine the relationship between temperature variability and schizophrenia, adjusting for long-term trend and seasonality, mean temperature, and relative humidity. Our analysis revealed that extreme temperature variability may increase the risk for schizophrenia onset among patients born in spring, while no such association was found in patients born in summer and autumn. In patients born in spring, the relative risks of extremely high DTR comparing the 95th and 99th percentiles with the reference (50th, 10 °C) at 3-day lag were 1.078 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.025-1.135) and 1.159 (95 % CI 1.050-1.279), respectively. For TCN effects, only comparing 99th percentile with reference (50th, 0.7 °C) was significantly associated with emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia (relative risk (RR) 1.111, 95 % CI 1.002-1.231). This study suggested that exposure to extreme temperature variability in short-term may trigger later days of schizophrenia onset for patients born in spring, which may have important implications for developing intervention strategies to prevent large temperature variability exposure.

Daily indoor-to-outdoor temperature and humidity relationships: a sample across seasons and diverse climatic regions

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Jennifer L.; Dockery, Douglas W.

2015-01-01

The health consequences of heat and cold are usually evaluated based on associations with outdoor measurements at the nearest weather reporting station. However, people in the developed world spend little time outdoors, especially during extreme temperature events. We examined the association between indoor and outdoor temperature and humidity in a range of climates. We measured indoor temperature, apparent temperature, relative humidity, dew point, and specific humidity (a measure of moisture content in air) for one calendar year (2012) in a convenience sample of eight diverse locations ranging from the equatorial region (10°N) to the Arctic (64°N). We then compared the indoor conditions to outdoor values recorded at the nearest airport weather station. We found that the shape of the indoor-to-outdoor temperature and humidity relationships varied across seasons and locations. Indoor temperatures showed little variation across season and location. There was large variation in indoor relative humidity between seasons and between locations which was independent of outdoor, airport measurements. On the other hand, indoor specific humidity, and to a lesser extent dew point, tracked with outdoor, airport measurements both seasonally and between climates, across a wide range of outdoor temperatures. Our results suggest that, depending on the measure, season, and location, outdoor weather measurements can be reliably used to represent indoor exposures and that, in general, outdoor measures of actual moisture content in air better capture indoor exposure than temperature and relative humidity. Therefore, absolute measures of water vapor should be examined in conjunction with other measures (e.g. temperature, relative humidity) in studies of the effect of weather and climate on human health. PMID:26054827

Intermediate photovoltaic system application experiment operational performance report. Volume 6: Beverly High School, Beverly, Mass.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1982-03-01

Performance data are given for the month of February, 1982 for a photovoltaic power supply at a Massachusetts high school. Data given include: monthly and daily electrical energy yield; monthly and daily insolation; monthly and daily array efficiency; energy production as a function of power level, voltage, cell temperature, and hour of day; insolation as a function of hour of the day; input, output and efficiency for each of two power conditioning units and for the total power conditioning system; energy supplied to the load by the photovoltaic system and by the grid; photovoltaic system efficiency; dollar value of the energy supplied by the photovoltaic system; capacity factor; daily photovoltaic energy to load; daily system availability and hours of daylight; heating and cooling degree days; hourly cell temperature, ambient temperature, wind speed, and insolation; average monthly wind speed; wind direction distribution; and daily data acquisition mode and recording interval plot.

[Comparison of eddy covariance and static chamber/gas chromatogram methods in measuring ecosystem respiration].

PubMed

Zheng, Ze-Mei; Yu, Gui-Rui; Sun, Xiao-Min; Cao, Guang-Min; Wang, Yue-Si; Du, Ming-Yuan; Li, Jun; Li, Ying-Nian

2008-02-01

Based on the measurement of carbon flux by the methods of eddy covariance and static chamber/gas chromatogram, a comparison was made between the two methods in evaluating ecosystem respiration over winter wheat (Triticum aestivum)--summer maize (Zea mays) double cropland and Kobresia humilis alpine meadow. The results showed that under the conditions of obtained data having good quality, nighttime ecosystem respiration from eddy covariance measurement was significantly agreed with that from static chamber/gas chromatogram measurement, with the correlation coefficients ranging from 0.95 to 0.98, and the daytime ecosystem respiration from these two measurements also had a good consistency though the static chamber/gas chromatogram measurement often produced higher values. The daily mean value of ecosystem respiration was significantly different between these two measurements, but the seasonal pattern was similar. For winter wheat-summer maize double cropland, the difference of mean air temperature inside and outside the chamber was 1.8 degrees C, and the daily mean value of ecosystem respiration across the whole study period was 30.3% lower in eddy covariance measurement than in static chamber/gas chromatogram measurement; while for alpine meadow, the difference of the mean air temperature was 1.9 degrees C, and the daily mean value of ecosystem respiration was 31.4% lower in eddy covariance measurement than in static chamber/gas chromatogram measurement. The variance between the daily mean values of ecosystem respiration obtained from the two measurements was higher in growing season than in dormant season.

Spring leaf phenology and the diurnal temperature range in a temperate maple forest.

PubMed

Hanes, Jonathan M

2014-03-01

Spring leaf phenology in temperate climates is intricately related to numerous aspects of the lower atmosphere [e.g., surface energy balance, carbon flux, humidity, the diurnal temperature range (DTR)]. To further develop and improve the accuracy of ecosystem and climate models, additional investigations of the specific nature of the relationships between spring leaf phenology and various ecosystem and climate processes are required in different environments. This study used visual observations of maple leaf phenology, below-canopy light intensities, and micrometeorological data collected during the spring seasons of 2008, 2009, and 2010 to examine the potential influence of leaf phenology on a seasonal transition in the trend of the DTR. The timing of a reversal in the DTR trend occurred near the time when the leaves were unfolding and expanding. The results suggest that the spring decline in the DTR can be attributed primarily to the effect of canopy closure on daily maximum temperature. These findings improve our understanding of the relationship between leaf phenology and the diurnal temperature range in temperate maple forests during the spring. They also demonstrate the necessity of incorporating accurate phenological data into ecosystem and climate models and warrant a careful examination of the extent to which canopy phenology is currently incorporated into existing models.

[Temperature modifies the acute effect of particulate air pollution on mortality in Jiang'an district of Wuhan].

PubMed

Zhu, Y H; Wu, R; Zhong, P R; Zhu, C H; Ma, L

2016-06-01

To analyze the temperature modification effect on acute mortality due to particulate air pollution. Daily non-accidental mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and respiratory mortality data were obtained from Jiang'an District Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Daily meteorological data on mean temperature and relative humidity were collected from China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System. The daily concentration of particulate matter was collected from Wuhan Environmental Monitoring center. By using the stratified time-series models, we analyzed effects of particulate air pollution on mortality under different temperature zone from 2002 to 2010, meanwhile comparing the difference of age, gender and educational level, in Wuhan city of China. High temperature (daily average temperature > 33.4 ℃) obviously enhanced the effect of PM10 on mortality. With 10 μg/m(3) increase in PM10 concentrations, non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality increased 2.95% (95%CI: 1.68%-4.24%), 3.58% (95%CI: 1.72%-5.49%), and 5.07% (95%CI: 2.03%-9.51%) respectively. However, low temperature (daily average temperature <-0.21 ℃) enhanced PM10 effect on respiratory mortality with 3.31% (95% CI: 0.07%-6.64%) increase. At high temperature, PM10 had significantly stronger effect on non-accidental mortality of female aged over 65 and people with high educational level groups. With an increase of 10 μg/m(3), daily non-accidental mortality increased 4.27% (95% CI:2.45%-6.12%), 3.38% (95% CI:1.93%-4.86%) and 3.47% (95% CI:1.79%-5.18%), respectively. Whereas people with low educational level were more susceptible to low temperature. A 10 μg/m(3) increase in PM10 was associated with 2.11% (95% CI: 0.20%-4.04%) for non-accidental mortality. Temperature factor can modify the association between the PM10 level and cause-specific mortality. Moreover, the differences were apparent after considering the age, gender and education groups.

Spatial statistical network models for stream and river temperature in New England, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Detenbeck, Naomi E.; Morrison, Alisa C.; Abele, Ralph W.; Kopp, Darin A.

2016-08-01

Watershed managers are challenged by the need for predictive temperature models with sufficient accuracy and geographic breadth for practical use. We described thermal regimes of New England rivers and streams based on a reduced set of metrics for the May-September growing season (July or August median temperature, diurnal rate of change, and magnitude and timing of growing season maximum) chosen through principal component analysis of 78 candidate metrics. We then developed and assessed spatial statistical models for each of these metrics, incorporating spatial autocorrelation based on both distance along the flow network and Euclidean distance between points. Calculation of spatial autocorrelation based on travel or retention time in place of network distance yielded tighter-fitting Torgegrams with less scatter but did not improve overall model prediction accuracy. We predicted monthly median July or August stream temperatures as a function of median air temperature, estimated urban heat island effect, shaded solar radiation, main channel slope, watershed storage (percent lake and wetland area), percent coarse-grained surficial deposits, and presence or maximum depth of a lake immediately upstream, with an overall root-mean-square prediction error of 1.4 and 1.5°C, respectively. Growing season maximum water temperature varied as a function of air temperature, local channel slope, shaded August solar radiation, imperviousness, and watershed storage. Predictive models for July or August daily range, maximum daily rate of change, and timing of growing season maximum were statistically significant but explained a much lower proportion of variance than the above models (5-14% of total).

Modeling temperature entrainment of circadian clocks using the Arrhenius equation and a reconstructed model from Chlamydomonas reinhardtii.

PubMed

Heiland, Ines; Bodenstein, Christian; Hinze, Thomas; Weisheit, Olga; Ebenhoeh, Oliver; Mittag, Maria; Schuster, Stefan

2012-06-01

Endogenous circadian rhythms allow living organisms to anticipate daily variations in their natural environment. Temperature regulation and entrainment mechanisms of circadian clocks are still poorly understood. To better understand the molecular basis of these processes, we built a mathematical model based on experimental data examining temperature regulation of the circadian RNA-binding protein CHLAMY1 from the unicellular green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, simulating the effect of temperature on the rates by applying the Arrhenius equation. Using numerical simulations, we demonstrate that our model is temperature-compensated and can be entrained to temperature cycles of various length and amplitude. The range of periods that allow entrainment of the model depends on the shape of the temperature cycles and is larger for sinusoidal compared to rectangular temperature curves. We show that the response to temperature of protein (de)phosphorylation rates play a key role in facilitating temperature entrainment of the oscillator in Chlamydomonas reinhardtii. We systematically investigated the response of our model to single temperature pulses to explain experimentally observed phase response curves.

Range of monthly mean hourly land surface air temperature diurnal cycle over high northern latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Aihui; Zeng, Xubin

2014-05-01

Daily maximum and minimum temperatures over global land are fundamental climate variables, and their difference represents the diurnal temperature range (DTR). While the differences between the monthly averaged DTR (MDTR) and the range of monthly averaged hourly temperature diurnal cycle (RMDT) are easy to understand qualitatively, their differences have not been quantified over global land areas. Based on our newly developed in situ data (Climatic Research Unit) reanalysis (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) merged hourly temperature data from 1979 to 2009, RMDT in January is found to be much smaller than that in July over high northern latitudes, as it is much more affected by the diurnal radiative forcing than by the horizontal advection of temperature. In contrast, MDTR in January is comparable to that in July over high northern latitudes, but it is much larger than January RMDT, as it primarily reflects the movement of lower frequency synoptic weather systems. The area-averaged RMDT trends north of 40°N are near zero in November, December, and January, while the trends of MDTR are negative. These results suggest the need to use both the traditional MDTR and RMDT suggested here in future observational and modeling studies. Furthermore, MDTR and its trend are more sensitive to the starting hour of a 24 h day used in the calculations than those for RMDT, and this factor also needs to be considered in model evaluations using observational data.

Associations between Changes in City and Address Specific Temperature and QT Interval - The VA Normative Aging Study

PubMed Central

Mehta, Amar J.; Kloog, Itai; Zanobetti, Antonella; Coull, Brent A.; Sparrow, David; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel

2014-01-01

Background The underlying mechanisms of the association between ambient temperature and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality are not well understood, particularly for daily temperature variability. We evaluated if daily mean temperature and standard deviation of temperature was associated with heart rate-corrected QT interval (QTc) duration, a marker of ventricular repolarization in a prospective cohort of older men. Methods This longitudinal analysis included 487 older men participating in the VA Normative Aging Study with up to three visits between 2000–2008 (n = 743). We analyzed associations between QTc and moving averages (1–7, 14, 21, and 28 days) of the 24-hour mean and standard deviation of temperature as measured from a local weather monitor, and the 24-hour mean temperature estimated from a spatiotemporal prediction model, in time-varying linear mixed-effect regression. Effect modification by season, diabetes, coronary heart disease, obesity, and age was also evaluated. Results Higher mean temperature as measured from the local monitor, and estimated from the prediction model, was associated with longer QTc at moving averages of 21 and 28 days. Increased 24-hr standard deviation of temperature was associated with longer QTc at moving averages from 4 and up to 28 days; a 1.9°C interquartile range increase in 4-day moving average standard deviation of temperature was associated with a 2.8 msec (95%CI: 0.4, 5.2) longer QTc. Associations between 24-hr standard deviation of temperature and QTc were stronger in colder months, and in participants with diabetes and coronary heart disease. Conclusion/Significance In this sample of older men, elevated mean temperature was associated with longer QTc, and increased variability of temperature was associated with longer QTc, particularly during colder months and among individuals with diabetes and coronary heart disease. These findings may offer insight of an important underlying mechanism of temperature-related cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in an older population. PMID:25238150

CWRF performance at downscaling China climate characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Xin-Zhong; Sun, Chao; Zheng, Xiaohui; Dai, Yongjiu; Xu, Min; Choi, Hyun I.; Ling, Tiejun; Qiao, Fengxue; Kong, Xianghui; Bi, Xunqiang; Song, Lianchun; Wang, Fang

2018-05-01

The performance of the regional Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model (CWRF) for downscaling China climate characteristics is evaluated using a 1980-2015 simulation at 30 km grid spacing driven by the ECMWF Interim reanalysis (ERI). It is shown that CWRF outperforms the popular Regional Climate Modeling system (RegCM4.6) in key features including monsoon rain bands, diurnal temperature ranges, surface winds, interannual precipitation and temperature anomalies, humidity couplings, and 95th percentile daily precipitation. Even compared with ERI, which assimilates surface observations, CWRF better represents the geographic distributions of seasonal mean climate and extreme precipitation. These results indicate that CWRF may significantly enhance China climate modeling capabilities.

Total Copper Analyzer for Rapid In Situ Characterization of Effluent Discharges

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-10-03

acidification , digestion, and measurement of copper with a specialized jalpaite copper ion-selective electrode (Cu-ISE). The preprocessed sensor data...analysis. This is in contrast to the temperature conditions at SBWWTP, where the TCA was deployed in a plastic hut on open grounds. The daily range...GFAA Spectroscopy” (U.S. EPA, 1992). In order to accomplish this goal, the TCA includes in-line automatic acidification , fast digestion of the

Natural variability of the Keetch-Byram Drought Index in the Hawaiian Islands

Treesearch

Klaus Dolling; Pao-Shin Chu; Francis Fujioka

2009-01-01

The Hawaiian Islands experience damaging wildfires on a yearly basis. Soil moisture or lack thereof influences the amount and flammability of vegetation. Incorporating daily maximum temperatures and daily rainfall amounts, the Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI) estimates the amount of soil moisture by tracking daily maximum temperatures and rainfall. A previous study...

High-frequency daily temperature variability in China and its relationship to large-scale circulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Fu-Ting; Fu, Congbin; Qian, Yun

Two measures of intra-seasonal variability, indicated respectively by standard deviations (SD) and day-to-day (DTD) fluctuations denoted by absolute differences between adjacent 2-day periods, as well as their relationships with large-scale circulation patterns were investigated in China during 1962–2008 on the basis of homogenized daily temperature records from 549 local stations and reanalysis data. Our results show that both the SD and DTD of daily minimum temperatures (Tmin) in summer as well as the minimum and maximum temperatures in winter have been decreasing, while the daily maximum temperature (Tmax) variability in summer is fluctuating more, especially over southern China. In summer,more » an attribution analysis indicates that the intensity of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and high-level East Asian Subtropical Jet stream (EASJ) are positively correlated with both SD and DTD, but the correlation coefficients are generally greater with the SD than with the DTD of the daily maximum temperature, Tmax. In contrast, the location of the EASJ shows the opposite correlation pattern, with intensity regarding the correlation with both SD and DTD. In winter, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is negatively correlated with both the SD and DTD of the daily minimum temperature, but its intra-seasonal variability exhibits good agreement with the SD of the Tmin. The Siberian High acts differently with respect to the SD and DTD of the Tmin, demonstrating a regionally consistent positive correlation with the SD. Overall, the large-scale circulation can well explain the intra-seasonal SD, but DTD fluctuations may be more local and impacted by local conditions, such as changes in the temperature itself, the land surface, and so on.« less

Active layer thermal monitoring of a Dry Valley of the Ellsworth Mountains, Continental Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaefer, Carlos Ernesto; Michel, Roberto; Souza, Karoline; Senra, Eduardo; Bremer, Ulisses

2015-04-01

The Ellsworth Mountains occur along the southern edge of the Ronne-Filchner Ice Shelf and are subdivided by the Minnesota Glacier into the Heritage Range to the east and the Sentinel Range to the West. The climate of the Ellsworth Mountains is strongly controlled by proximity to the Ronne-Filchner Ice Shelf and elevation. The mean annual air temperature at the 1,000 m level is estimated to be -25°C, and the average annual accumulation of water-equivalent precipitation likely ranges from 150 to 175 mm yr-1 (Weyant, 1966). The entire area is underlain by continuous permafrost of unknown thickness. Based on data collected from 22 pits, 41% of the sites contained dry permafrost below 70 cm, 27% had ice-cemented permafrost within 70 cm of the surface, 27% had bedrock within 70 cm, and 5% contained an ice-core (Bockheim, unpublished; Schaefer et al., 2015). Dry-frozen permafrost, which may be unique to Antarctica, appears to form from sublimation of moisture in ice-cemented permafrost over time. Active-layer depths in drift sheets of the Ellsworth Mountains range from 15 to 50 cm (Bockheim, unpublished); our understanding of Antarctic permafrost is poor, especially at the continent. The active layer monitoring sites were installed at Edson Hills, Ellsworth_Mountains, in the summer of 2012, and consist of thermistors (accuracy ± 0.2 °C) installed at 1 m above ground for air temperature measurements at two soil profiles on quartzite drift deposits, arranged in a vertical array (Lithic Haplorthel 886 m asl, 5 cm, 10 cm, 30 cm and Lithic Anyorthel 850 m asl, 5 cm, 10 cm, 30 cm). All probes were connected to a Campbell Scientific CR 1000 data logger recording data at hourly intervals from January 2nd 2012 until December 29th 2013. We calculated the thawing days (TD), freezing days (FD); isothermal days (ID), freeze thaw days (FTD), thawing degree days (TDD) and freezing degree days (FDD); all according to Guglielmin et al. (2008). Temperature at 5 cm reaches a maximum daily average in late December 2012, reaching a minimum in mid July 2013 on P1 (10.9 °C, -37.9 °C, ± 11.1) and P2 (6.9 °C, -37.1 °C, ± 10.2). The active layer thickness reaches a maximum of 48.4 cm at P1 on January 17th 2013 and 47.8 cm at P2 on January 7th 2012. No ID were recorded for the studied period, one TD was recorded at 5 cm on P2, 143 FTD were recorded at 5 cm, 81 at 10 cm and 46 days at 30 cm on P1, on P2 118 FTD were recorded at 5 cm, 80 at 10 cm and 42 days at 30 cm. The majority of the days were classified as FD for both sites; 585 at 5 cm, 647 at 10 cm and 684 days at 30 cm on P1, on P2 611 FD were recorded at 5 cm, 650 at 10 cm and 688 days at 30 cm. Only 17 FTD were recorded for the air temperature and 713 FD. Over the 728 days of the studied period the sum of all positive daily average temperatures was 166.3 TDD at 5 cm and 23.8 TDD at 10 cm on P1, 45.0 TDD at 5 cm and 5.2 TDD at 10 cm on P2. No positive daily average was recorded at 30 cm for both sites. The sum of all negative daily average temperatures was -13504.5 FDD at 5 cm, -13389.9 FDD at 10 cm and -13381.0 FDD at 30 cm on P1, -13508.0 FDD at 5 cm, -13486.6 FDD at 10 cm and -13398.9 FDD at 30 cm on P2. Only 0.28 TDD were summed for the air temperature and -14430.7 FDD. The soil thermal regime at the dry valley of Edson Hill, Ellsworth Mountains is characteristic of polar desert affected by Dry-frozen permafrost. Although air temperature does not reach high positive values, variations in soil temperature are more intense during the year, showing the soil's response to solar radiation.

Characteristics of sub-daily precipitation extremes in observed data and regional climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beranová, Romana; Kyselý, Jan; Hanel, Martin

2018-04-01

The study compares characteristics of observed sub-daily precipitation extremes in the Czech Republic with those simulated by Hadley Centre Regional Model version 3 (HadRM3) and Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model version 4 (RCA4) regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalyses and examines diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation and their dependence on intensity and surface temperature. The observed warm-season (May-September) maxima of short-duration (1, 2 and 3 h) amounts show one diurnal peak in the afternoon, which is simulated reasonably well by RCA4, although the peak occurs too early in the model. HadRM3 provides an unrealistic diurnal cycle with a nighttime peak and an afternoon minimum coinciding with the observed maximum for all three ensemble members, which suggests that convection is not captured realistically. Distorted relationships of the diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation to daily maximum temperature in HadRM3 further evidence that underlying physical mechanisms are misrepresented in this RCM. Goodness-of-fit tests indicate that generalised extreme value distribution is an applicable model for both observed and RCM-simulated precipitation maxima. However, the RCMs are not able to capture the range of the shape parameter estimates of distributions of short-duration precipitation maxima realistically, leading to either too many (nearly all for HadRM3) or too few (RCA4) grid boxes in which the shape parameter corresponds to a heavy tail. This means that the distributions of maxima of sub-daily amounts are distorted in the RCM-simulated data and do not match reality well. Therefore, projected changes of sub-daily precipitation extremes in climate change scenarios based on RCMs not resolving convection need to be interpreted with caution.

Concentration–Response Function for Ozone and Daily Mortality: Results from Five Urban and Five Rural U.K. Populations

PubMed Central

Yu, Dahai; Armstrong, Ben G.; Pattenden, Sam; Wilkinson, Paul; Doherty, Ruth M.; Heal, Mathew R.; Anderson, H. Ross

2012-01-01

Background: Short-term exposure to ozone has been associated with increased daily mortality. The shape of the concentration–response relationship—and, in particular, if there is a threshold—is critical for estimating public health impacts. Objective: We investigated the concentration–response relationship between daily ozone and mortality in five urban and five rural areas in the United Kingdom from 1993 to 2006. Methods: We used Poisson regression, controlling for seasonality, temperature, and influenza, to investigate associations between daily maximum 8-hr ozone and daily all-cause mortality, assuming linear, linear-threshold, and spline models for all-year and season-specific periods. We examined sensitivity to adjustment for particles (urban areas only) and alternative temperature metrics. Results: In all-year analyses, we found clear evidence for a threshold in the concentration–response relationship between ozone and all-cause mortality in London at 65 µg/m3 [95% confidence interval (CI): 58, 83] but little evidence of a threshold in other urban or rural areas. Combined linear effect estimates for all-cause mortality were comparable for urban and rural areas: 0.48% (95% CI: 0.35, 0.60) and 0.58% (95% CI: 0.36, 0.81) per 10-µg/m3 increase in ozone concentrations, respectively. Seasonal analyses suggested thresholds in both urban and rural areas for effects of ozone during summer months. Conclusions: Our results suggest that health impacts should be estimated across the whole ambient range of ozone using both threshold and nonthreshold models, and models stratified by season. Evidence of a threshold effect in London but not in other study areas requires further investigation. The public health impacts of exposure to ozone in rural areas should not be overlooked. PMID:22814173

Modeling the effects of climate and land use change on instream temperature in the Upper Tar River, North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daraio, J. A.; Bales, J. D.

2011-12-01

Freshwater mussels are among the most imperiled groups of organisms in the world. Declines in abundance and diversity in North America have been attributed to a wide range of human activities, and many species occur in habitats close to their upper thermal tolerance. We are modeling instream temperature (T) as part of an effort to understand the response of imperiled freshwater mussels to anthropogenically induced changes in water T, habitat, and flow. We used the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to model projected changes in stream discharge, and the Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) to model changes in instream T due to climate and land-use change in the Upper Tar River, North Carolina, which has a drainage area of 2200 mi^2. Down-scaled gridded 12km Global Circulation Models were used for precipitation and T inputs to PRMS simulations from the present through 2060. Land-use change through 2060 in the Upper Tar basin was estimated from SLEUTH, a model that estimates land-use change using the probability of urbanization, (results available from NC State University) and incorporated into PRMS for long term simulations. Stream segment discharge and lateral and groundwater flow into each stream segment from PRMS were used as input for SNTEMP. Groundwater T was assumed equal to the average annual air T for the basin. Lateral inflow T was estimated from physical characteristics of the basin (e.g. impervious area, cover density, cover type, solar radiation, air T) when possible, or from a regression with air T based on empirical field data at 20 sites throughout the basin. In addition to T, data on mussel and fish populations (e.g., density and species composition?) and microhabitat have been collected at these sites. The SNTEMP model was calibrated using the mean daily T at each site. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values ranged from 0.86 to 0.94 for mean daily T, and from 0.80 to 0.93 for maximum daily T. Ensemble simulations were run for a range of climate change and land use scenarios to estimate the potential for increased instream T at each of the 20 sites. The results of these simulations will be used in conjunction with field and laboratory data on the thermal tolerances of mussels to assess the potential for elevated temperatures to adversely affect rare and common mussel populations.

40 CFR 65.162 - Nonflare control and recovery device monitoring records.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

...). For catalytic incinerators, record the daily average of the temperature upstream of the catalyst bed and the daily average of the temperature differential across the bed. For halogen scrubbers, record... regeneration stream flow and carbon bed regeneration temperature are monitored, the following records shall be...

Estimation of daily mean air temperature from satellite derived radiometric data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phinney, D.

1976-01-01

The Screwworm Eradication Data System (SEDS) at JSC utilizes satellite derived estimates of daily mean air temperature (DMAT) to monitor the effect of temperature on screwworm populations. The performance of the SEDS screwworm growth potential predictions depends in large part upon the accuracy of the DMAT estimates.

Long-term patterns of air temperatures, daily temperature range, precipitation, grass-reference evapotranspiration and aridity index in the USA Great Plains: Part I. Spatial trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kukal, M.; Irmak, S.

2016-11-01

Due to their substantial spatio-temporal behavior, long-term quantification and analyses of important hydrological variables are essential for practical applications in water resources planning, evaluating the water use of agricultural crop production and quantifying crop evapotranspiration patterns and irrigation management vs. hydrologic balance relationships. Observed data at over 800 sites across the Great Plains of USA, comprising of 9 states and 2,307,410 km2 of surface area, which is about 30% of the terrestrial area of the USA, were used to quantify and map large-scale and long-term (1968-2013) spatial trends of air temperatures, daily temperature range (DTR), precipitation, grass-reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and aridity index (AI) at monthly, growing season and annual time steps. Air temperatures had a strong north to south increasing trend, with annual average varying from -1 to 24 °C, and growing season average temperature varying from 8 to 30 °C. DTR gradually decreased from western to eastern parts of the region, with a regional annual and growing season averages of 14.25 °C and 14.79 °C, respectively. Precipitation had a gradual shift towards higher magnitudes from west to east, with the average annual and growing season (May-September) precipitation ranging from 163 to 1486 mm and from 98 to 746 mm, respectively. ETo had a southwest-northeast decreasing trend, with regional annual and growing season averages of 1297 mm and 823 mm, respectively. AI increased from west to east, indicating higher humidity (less arid) towards the east, with regional annual and growing season averages of 0.49 and 0.44, respectively. The spatial datasets and maps for these important climate variables can serve as valuable background for climate change and hydrologic studies in the Great Plains region. Through identification of priority areas from the developed maps, efforts of the concerned personnel and agencies and resources can be diverted towards development of holistic strategies to address water supply and demand challenges under changing climate. These strategies can consist of, but not limited to, advancing water, crop and soil management, and genetic improvements and their relationships with the climatic variables on large scales.

Fundamental statistical relationships between monthly and daily meteorological variables: Temporal downscaling of weather based on a global observational dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sommer, Philipp; Kaplan, Jed

2016-04-01

Accurate modelling of large-scale vegetation dynamics, hydrology, and other environmental processes requires meteorological forcing on daily timescales. While meteorological data with high temporal resolution is becoming increasingly available, simulations for the future or distant past are limited by lack of data and poor performance of climate models, e.g., in simulating daily precipitation. To overcome these limitations, we may temporally downscale monthly summary data to a daily time step using a weather generator. Parameterization of such statistical models has traditionally been based on a limited number of observations. Recent developments in the archiving, distribution, and analysis of "big data" datasets provide new opportunities for the parameterization of a temporal downscaling model that is applicable over a wide range of climates. Here we parameterize a WGEN-type weather generator using more than 50 million individual daily meteorological observations, from over 10'000 stations covering all continents, based on the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) and Synoptic Cloud Reports (EECRA) databases. Using the resulting "universal" parameterization and driven by monthly summaries, we downscale mean temperature (minimum and maximum), cloud cover, and total precipitation, to daily estimates. We apply a hybrid gamma-generalized Pareto distribution to calculate daily precipitation amounts, which overcomes much of the inability of earlier weather generators to simulate high amounts of daily precipitation. Our globally parameterized weather generator has numerous applications, including vegetation and crop modelling for paleoenvironmental studies.

The influences of ambient temperature and crude protein levels on performance and serum biochemical parameters in broilers.

PubMed

Liu, Q W; Feng, J H; Chao, Z; Chen, Y; Wei, L M; Wang, F; Sun, R P; Zhang, M H

2016-04-01

This study was undertaken to investigate the effects of ambient temperature, crude protein levels and their interaction on performance and serum biochemical parameters of broiler chickens. A total of 216 Arbor Acre broiler chickens (108 males and 108 females) were used in a 2 × 3 factorial arrangement and randomly reared at two temperatures (normal temperature: 23 °C; daily cyclic high temperature: 28-32 °C) and fed on three diets with different crude protein levels (153.3, 183.3 or 213.3 g/kg, with constant essential amino acids) from 28 to 42 days of age. Daily cyclic high ambient temperature decreased final body weight, average daily weight gain, average daily feed intake and serum total protein contents (p < 0.001, p < 0.001, p < 0.001, p = 0.008 respectively), but increased feed/gain, mortality, respiratory rate, rectal temperature, serum uric acid contents and serum creatine kinase activity (p = 0.008, p = 0.003, p < 0.0001, p < 0.0001, p < 0.0001, p = 0.003 respectively), irrespective of crude protein levels. At the ambient temperature, reducing crude protein levels resulted in an increase in feed/gain (p < 0.001), but a decrease in serum total protein and uric acid contents. Only serum creatine kinase activity in broiler chickens was interacted by daily cyclic high ambient temperature and dietary crude protein levels (p = 0.003). These results indicated that daily cyclic high ambient temperature had a great effect on performance and serum biochemical parameters in broiler chickens, whereas dietary crude protein levels affected them partially. Journal of Animal Physiology and Animal Nutrition © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Improvement of the Measurement Range and Temperature Characteristics of a Load Sensor Using a Quartz Crystal Resonator with All Crystal Layer Components.

PubMed

Murozaki, Yuichi; Sakuma, Shinya; Arai, Fumihito

2017-05-08

Monitoring multiple biosignals, such as heart rate, respiration cycle, and weight transitions, contributes to the health management of individuals. Specifically, it is possible to measure multiple biosignals using load information obtained through contact with the environment, such as a chair and bed, in daily use. A wide-range load sensor is essential since load information contains multiple biosignals with various load ranges. In this study, a load sensor is presented by using a quartz crystal resonator (QCR) with a wide measurement range of 1.5 × 10⁶ (0.4 mN to 600 N), and its temperature characteristic of load is improved to -7 Hz/°C (-18 mN/°C). In order to improve the measurement range of the load, a design method of this sensor is proposed by restraining the buckling of QCR and by using a thinner QCR. The proposed sensor allows a higher allowable load with high sensitivity. The load sensor mainly consists of three layers, namely a QCR layer and two holding layers. As opposed to the conventional holding layer composed of silicon, quartz crystal is utilized for the holding layers to improve the temperature characteristic of the load sensor. In the study, multiple biosignals, such as weight and pulse, are detected by using a fabricated sensor.

Characterizing seasonal and diel vertical movement and habitat use of lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) in Clear Lake, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zydlewski, Joseph D.; Gorsky, Dimitry; Balsey, David

2016-01-01

Seasonal and daily vertical activity of lake whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis was studied in Clear Lake, Maine (253 ha), using acoustic telemetry from November 2004 to June 2009. Twenty adult lake whitefish were tagged with acoustic tags that had either a depth sensor or both depth and temperature sensors to assess vertical habitat use at a seasonal and daily resolution. Vertical habitat selection varied seasonally and was strongly influenced by temperature. Between December and April, when the lake was covered with ice, surface temperature was below 2°C and tagged individuals occupied deep areas of the lake (∼15 m). After ice-out, fish ascended into shallow waters (∼5 m), responding to increased water temperature and possibly to greater foraging opportunity. When surface water temperatures exceeded 20°C, fish descended below the developing thermocline (∼9 m), where they remained until surface temperatures fell below 20°C; fish then ascended into shallower depths, presumably for feeding and spawning. Through the winter, fish remained in thermal habitats that were warmer than the surface temperatures; in the summer, they selected depths with thermal habitats below 15°C. Though the amplitude varied greatly across seasons, lake whitefish displayed a strong diurnal pattern of activity as measured by vertical velocities. Fish were twofold more active during spring, summer, and fall than during winter. Lake whitefish exhibited diel vertical migrations, rising in the water column during nighttime and occupying deeper waters during the day. This pattern was more pronounced in the spring and fall and far less prominent during winter and summer. The strong linkage between temperature and habitat use may limit the current range of lake whitefish and may be directly impacted by climatic change.

Mortality Related to Air Pollution with the Moscow Heat Wave and Wildfire of 2010

PubMed Central

Shaposhnikov, Dmitry; Revich, Boris; Bellander, Tom; Bedada, Getahun Bero; Bottai, Matteo; Kharkova, Tatyana; Kvasha, Ekaterina; Lezina, Elena; Lind, Tomas; Semutnikova, Eugenia

2014-01-01

Background: Prolonged high temperatures and air pollution from wildfires often occur together, and the two may interact in their effects on mortality. However, there are few data on such possible interactions. Methods: We analyzed day-to-day variations in the number of deaths in Moscow, Russia, in relation to air pollution levels and temperature during the disastrous heat wave and wildfire of 2010. Corresponding data for the period 2006–2009 were used for comparison. Daily average levels of PM10 and ozone were obtained from several continuous measurement stations. The daily number of nonaccidental deaths from specific causes was extracted from official records. Analyses of interactions considered the main effect of temperature as well as the added effect of prolonged high temperatures and the interaction with PM10. Results: The major heat wave lasted for 44 days, with 24-hour average temperatures ranging from 24°C to 31°C and PM10 levels exceeding 300 μg/m3 on several days. There were close to 11,000 excess deaths from nonaccidental causes during this period, mainly among those older than 65 years. Increased risks also occurred in younger age groups. The most pronounced effects were for deaths from cardiovascular, respiratory, genitourinary, and nervous system diseases. Continuously increasing risks following prolonged high temperatures were apparent during the first 2 weeks of the heat wave. Interactions between high temperatures and air pollution from wildfires in excess of an additive effect contributed to more than 2000 deaths. Conclusions: Interactions between high temperatures and wildfire air pollution should be considered in risk assessments regarding health consequences of climate change. PMID:24598414

Spatial patterns of stream temperatures and electric conductivity in a mesoscale catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lieder, Ernestine; Weiler, Markus; Blume, Theresa

2017-04-01

Stream temperature and electric conductivity (EC) are both relatively easily measured and can provide valuable information on runoff generation processes and catchment storage.This study investigates the spatial variability of stream temperature and EC in a mesoscale basin. We focus on the mesoscale (sub-catchments and reach scale), and long term (seasonal / annual) stream temperature and EC patterns. Our study basin is the Attert catchment in Luxembourg (288km2), which contains multiple sub-catchments of different geology, topography and land use patterns. We installed 90 stream temperature and EC sensors at sites across the basin in summer 2015. The collected data is complemented by land use and discharge data and an extensive climate data set. Thermal sensitivity was calculated as the slope of daily air temperature-water-temperature regression line and describes the sensitivity of stream temperature to long term environmental change. Amplitude sensitivity was calculated as slope of the daily air and water temperature amplitude regression and describes the short term warming capacity of the stream. We found that groups with similar long term thermal and EC patterns are strongly related to different geological units. The sandstone reaches show the coldest temperatures and lowest annual thermal sensitivity to air temperature. The slate reaches are characterized by comparably low EC and high daily temperature amplitudes and amplitude sensitivity. Furthermore, mean annual temperatures and thermal sensitivities increase exponentially with drainage area, which can be attributed to the accumulation of heat throughout the system. On the reach scale, daily stream temperature fluctuations or sensitivities were strongly influenced by land cover distribution, stream shading and runoff volume. Daily thermal sensitivities were low for headwater streams; peaked for intermediate reaches in the middle of the catchment and then decreased again further downstream with increasing drainage area. Combining spatially distributed time series of stream temperatures and EC with information about geology, landscape and climate provides insight into the underlying hydrological processes and allows for the identification of thermally sensitive regions and reaches.

North–south polarization of European electricity consumption under future warming

PubMed Central

Wenz, Leonie; Levermann, Anders; Auffhammer, Maximilian

2017-01-01

There is growing empirical evidence that anthropogenic climate change will substantially affect the electric sector. Impacts will stem both from the supply side—through the mitigation of greenhouse gases—and from the demand side—through adaptive responses to a changing environment. Here we provide evidence of a polarization of both peak load and overall electricity consumption under future warming for the world’s third-largest electricity market—the 35 countries of Europe. We statistically estimate country-level dose–response functions between daily peak/total electricity load and ambient temperature for the period 2006–2012. After removing the impact of nontemperature confounders and normalizing the residual load data for each country, we estimate a common dose–response function, which we use to compute national electricity loads for temperatures that lie outside each country’s currently observed temperature range. To this end, we impose end-of-century climate on today’s European economies following three different greenhouse-gas concentration trajectories, ranging from ambitious climate-change mitigation—in line with the Paris agreement—to unabated climate change. We find significant increases in average daily peak load and overall electricity consumption in southern and western Europe (∼3 to ∼7% for Portugal and Spain) and significant decreases in northern Europe (∼−6 to ∼−2% for Sweden and Norway). While the projected effect on European total consumption is nearly zero, the significant polarization and seasonal shifts in peak demand and consumption have important ramifications for the location of costly peak-generating capacity, transmission infrastructure, and the design of energy-efficiency policy and storage capacity. PMID:28847939

North-south polarization of European electricity consumption under future warming.

PubMed

Wenz, Leonie; Levermann, Anders; Auffhammer, Maximilian

2017-09-19

There is growing empirical evidence that anthropogenic climate change will substantially affect the electric sector. Impacts will stem both from the supply side-through the mitigation of greenhouse gases-and from the demand side-through adaptive responses to a changing environment. Here we provide evidence of a polarization of both peak load and overall electricity consumption under future warming for the world's third-largest electricity market-the 35 countries of Europe. We statistically estimate country-level dose-response functions between daily peak/total electricity load and ambient temperature for the period 2006-2012. After removing the impact of nontemperature confounders and normalizing the residual load data for each country, we estimate a common dose-response function, which we use to compute national electricity loads for temperatures that lie outside each country's currently observed temperature range. To this end, we impose end-of-century climate on today's European economies following three different greenhouse-gas concentration trajectories, ranging from ambitious climate-change mitigation-in line with the Paris agreement-to unabated climate change. We find significant increases in average daily peak load and overall electricity consumption in southern and western Europe (∼3 to ∼7% for Portugal and Spain) and significant decreases in northern Europe (∼-6 to ∼-2% for Sweden and Norway). While the projected effect on European total consumption is nearly zero, the significant polarization and seasonal shifts in peak demand and consumption have important ramifications for the location of costly peak-generating capacity, transmission infrastructure, and the design of energy-efficiency policy and storage capacity.

The effects of host size and temperature on the emergence of Echinoparyphium recurvatum cercariae from Lymnaea peregra under natural light conditions.

PubMed

Morley, N J; Adam, M E; Lewis, J W

2010-09-01

The production of cercariae from their snail host is a fundamental component of transmission success in trematodes. The emergence of Echinoparyphium recurvatum (Trematoda: Echinostomatidae) cercariae from Lymnaea peregra was studied under natural sunlight conditions, using naturally infected snails of different sizes (10-17 mm) within a temperature range of 10-29 degrees C. There was a single photoperiodic circadian cycle of emergence with one peak, which correlated with the maximum diffuse sunlight irradiation. At 21 degrees C the daily number of emerging cercariae increased with increasing host snail size, but variations in cercarial emergence did occur between both individual snails and different days. There was only limited evidence of cyclic emergence patterns over a 3-week period, probably due to extensive snail mortality, particularly those in the larger size classes. Very few cercariae emerged in all snail size classes at the lowest temperature studied (10 degrees C), but at increasingly higher temperatures elevated numbers of cercariae emerged, reaching an optimum between 17 and 25 degrees C. Above this range emergence was reduced. At all temperatures more cercariae emerged from larger snails. Analysis of emergence using the Q10 value, a measure of physiological processes over temperature ranges, showed that between 10 and 21 degrees C (approximately 15 degrees C) Q10 values exceeded 100 for all snail size classes, indicating a substantially greater emergence than would be expected for normal physiological rates. From 14 to 25 degrees C (approximately 20 degrees C) cercarial emergence in most snail size classes showed little change in Q10, although in the smallest size class emergence was still substantially greater than the typical Q10 increase expected over this temperature range. At the highest range of 21-29 degrees C (approximately 25 degrees C), Q10 was much reduced. The importance of these results for cercarial emergence under global climate change is discussed.

A physically based model of global freshwater surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Eikelboom, Tessa; Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2012-09-01

Temperature determines a range of physical properties of water and exerts a strong control on surface water biogeochemistry. Thus, in freshwater ecosystems the thermal regime directly affects the geographical distribution of aquatic species through their growth and metabolism and indirectly through their tolerance to parasites and diseases. Models used to predict surface water temperature range between physically based deterministic models and statistical approaches. Here we present the initial results of a physically based deterministic model of global freshwater surface temperature. The model adds a surface water energy balance to river discharge modeled by the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. In addition to advection of energy from direct precipitation, runoff, and lateral exchange along the drainage network, energy is exchanged between the water body and the atmosphere by shortwave and longwave radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes. Also included are ice formation and its effect on heat storage and river hydraulics. We use the coupled surface water and energy balance model to simulate global freshwater surface temperature at daily time steps with a spatial resolution of 0.5° on a regular grid for the period 1976-2000. We opt to parameterize the model with globally available data and apply it without calibration in order to preserve its physical basis with the outlook of evaluating the effects of atmospheric warming on freshwater surface temperature. We validate our simulation results with daily temperature data from rivers and lakes (U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), limited to the USA) and compare mean monthly temperatures with those recorded in the Global Environment Monitoring System (GEMS) data set. Results show that the model is able to capture the mean monthly surface temperature for the majority of the GEMS stations, while the interannual variability as derived from the USGS and NOAA data was captured reasonably well. Results are poorest for the Arctic rivers because the timing of ice breakup is predicted too late in the year due to the lack of including a mechanical breakup mechanism. Moreover, surface water temperatures for tropical rivers were overestimated, most likely due to an overestimation of rainfall temperature and incoming shortwave radiation. The spatiotemporal variation of water temperature reveals large temperature differences between water and atmosphere for the higher latitudes, while considerable lateral transport of heat can be observed for rivers crossing hydroclimatic zones, such as the Nile, the Mississippi, and the large rivers flowing to the Arctic. Overall, our model results show promise for future projection of global surface freshwater temperature under global change.

Estimation of Circadian Body Temperature Rhythm Based on Heart Rate in Healthy, Ambulatory Subjects.

PubMed

Sim, Soo Young; Joo, Kwang Min; Kim, Han Byul; Jang, Seungjin; Kim, Beomoh; Hong, Seungbum; Kim, Sungwan; Park, Kwang Suk

2017-03-01

Core body temperature is a reliable marker for circadian rhythm. As characteristics of the circadian body temperature rhythm change during diverse health problems, such as sleep disorder and depression, body temperature monitoring is often used in clinical diagnosis and treatment. However, the use of current thermometers in circadian rhythm monitoring is impractical in daily life. As heart rate is a physiological signal relevant to thermoregulation, we investigated the feasibility of heart rate monitoring in estimating circadian body temperature rhythm. Various heart rate parameters and core body temperature were simultaneously acquired in 21 healthy, ambulatory subjects during their routine life. The performance of regression analysis and the extended Kalman filter on daily body temperature and circadian indicator (mesor, amplitude, and acrophase) estimation were evaluated. For daily body temperature estimation, mean R-R interval (RRI), mean heart rate (MHR), or normalized MHR provided a mean root mean square error of approximately 0.40 °C in both techniques. The mesor estimation regression analysis showed better performance than the extended Kalman filter. However, the extended Kalman filter, combined with RRI or MHR, provided better accuracy in terms of amplitude and acrophase estimation. We suggest that this noninvasive and convenient method for estimating the circadian body temperature rhythm could reduce discomfort during body temperature monitoring in daily life. This, in turn, could facilitate more clinical studies based on circadian body temperature rhythm.

Effect of temperature and temperature fluctuation on thermophilic anaerobic digestion of cattle manure.

PubMed

El-Mashad, Hamed M; Zeeman, Grietje; van Loon, Wilko K P; Bot, Gerard P A; Lettinga, Gatze

2004-11-01

The influence of temperature, 50 and 60 degrees C, at hydraulic retention times (HRTs) of 20 and 10 days, on the performance of anaerobic digestion of cow manure has been investigated in completely stirred tank reactors (CSTRs). Furthermore, the effect of both daily downward and daily upward temperature fluctuations has been studied. In the daily downward temperature fluctuation regime the temperatures of each reactor was reduced by 10 degrees C for 10 h while in the daily upward fluctuation regime the temperature of each reactor was increased 10 degrees C for 5 h. The results show that the methane production rate at 60 degrees C is lower than that at 50 degrees C at all experimental conditions of imposed HRT except when downward temperature fluctuations were applied at an HRT of 10 days. It also was found that the free ammonia concentration not only affects the acetate-utilising bacteria but also the hydrolysis and acidification process. The upward temperature fluctuation affects the maximum specific methanogenesis activity more severely as compared to imposed downward temperature fluctuations. The results clearly reveal the possibility of using available solar energy at daytime to heat up the reactor(s) without the need of heat storage during nights, especially at an operational temperature of 50 degrees C and at a 20 days HRT, and without the jeopardising of the overheating.

A 30-day forecast experiment with the GISS model and updated sea surface temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Atlas, R.; Kuo, E.

1975-01-01

The GISS model was used to compute two parallel global 30-day forecasts for the month January 1974. In one forecast, climatological January sea surface temperatures were used, while in the other observed sea temperatures were inserted and updated daily. A comparison of the two forecasts indicated no clear-cut beneficial effect of daily updating of sea surface temperatures. Despite the rapid decay of daily predictability, the model produced a 30-day mean forecast for January 1974 that was generally superior to persistence and climatology when evaluated over either the globe or the Northern Hemisphere, but not over smaller regions.

Association between summer temperature and body weight in Japanese adolescents and children: An ecological analysis.

PubMed

Yokoya, Masana; Higuchi, Yukito

2016-11-01

Several experimental studies reported evidence of a negative energy balance at higher temperatures. However, corresponding weight loss has not been noted in clinical practice. This study investigated the geographical association between outdoor temperature and body weight in Japanese adolescents and children. An ecological analysis was conducted using prefecture-level data on the mean body weight of Japanese adolescents and children over a 25-year period and Japanese mesh (regional) climatic data on the mean annual temperature, mean daily maximum temperature in August, and mean daily minimum temperature in January were also analyzed. Correlation analysis uncovered a stronger association between weight and the mean daily maximum temperature in August than with other climatic variables. Moreover, multiple regression analysis indicated that height and the mean daily maximum temperature in August were statistically significant predictors of weight. This suggests that geographical differences in weight in Japanese adolescents and children can be explained by the complementary relationship between height-associated weight gain and weight loss caused by summer heat. Summer temperatures may reduce the proportion of children who are overweight and contribute to geographical differences in body weight in Japanese adolescents and children. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 28:789-795, 2016. © 2016Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

WRF model forecasts and their use for hydroclimate monitoring over southern South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muller, Omar; Lovino, Miguel; Berbery, E. Hugo

2017-04-01

Weather forecasting and monitoring systems based on regional models are becoming increasingly relevant for decision support in agriculture and water management. This work evaluates the predictive and monitoring capabilities of a system based on WRF model simulations at 15 km grid spacing over a domain that encompasses La Plata Basin (LPB) in southern South America, where agriculture and water resources are essential. The model's skill up to a lead-time of 7 days is evaluated with daily precipitation and 2m temperature in-situ observations. Results show high prediction performance with 7 days lead-time throughout the domain and particularly over LPB, where about 70% of rain and no-rain days are correctly predicted. The scores tend to be better over humid climates than over arid-to-semiarid climates. Compared to the arid-semiarid climate, the humid climate has a higher probability of detection and less false alarms. The ranges of the skill scores are similar to those found over the United States, suggesting that proper choice of parameterizations lead to no loss of performance of the model. Daily mean, minimum and maximum forecast temperatures are highly correlated with observations up to 7 day lead time. The best performance is for daily mean temperature, followed by minimum temperature and a slightly weaker performance for maximum temperature over arid regions. The usefulness of WRF products for hydroclimate monitoring was tested for an unprecedented drought in southern Brazil and for a slightly above normal precipitation season in northeastern Argentina. In both cases the model products reproduce the observed precipitation conditions with consistent impacts on soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff. This evaluation validates the model's usefulness to fore-cast weather up to one week and to monitor climate conditions in real time. The scores suggest that the forecast lead-time can be extended into week two, while bias correction methods can reduce part of the systematic errors.

Trends and variability of daily temperature extremes during 1960-2012 in the Yangtze River Basin, China

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The variability of temperature extremes has been the focus of attention during the past few decades, and may exert a great influence on the global hydrologic cycle and energy balance through thermal forcing. Based on daily minimum and maximum temperature observed by the China Meteorological Administ...

Not so hot: Rapid recovery of soil temperature and respiration following tornado damage, regardless of disturbance severity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagendra, U.; Peterson, C.

2013-12-01

Forest disturbances such as tornadoes are expected to raise soil temperatures and increase soil respiration. Opening canopy gaps allows solar radiation to heat the forest floor, and damaged plant roots provide fuel for decomposition. Patches of disturbed forest can range from low severity (some defoliation, broken branches) to high severity (uprooted or snapped trees). Disturbance severity affects plant population and community processes, such as regeneration mode, species diversity, and community structure. We expect disturbance severity to also affect ecosystem processes such as soil respiration. Severe disturbances cause more distinct, and often larger, canopy gaps than mild disturbances, and damage more standing biomass, both above- and below-ground. We would expect these larger gaps and greater litter amounts to increase soil temperature and respiration in more severely disturbed forest patches. In April 2011, a moderate (EF-3) tornado damaged portions of the Chattahoochee National Forest in NE Georgia, USA. Our lab has been characterizing the damage and regeneration in sections of the forest since summer 2011. In Spring 2013, we installed 4 iButton temperature sensors in each of 14 plots across a range of disturbance severity (for a total of 56 sensors). Severity was determined by percent of initial tree basal area downed by the tornado, and ranged from 8% to 100% basal area down. The iButtons monitored soil temperature at a depth of 5 cm every hour for 85 days. In July 2013, integrated 24-hour soil respiration was measured at the same locations using soda lime absorption in sealed PVC collars. Soil temperature at 5 cm averaged 12.66 °C. Contrary to expectations, average daily temperatures did not increase with greater plot damage severity (R2 = 0.001). Daily variation was only slightly higher in plots of very high severity. Overall, soil temperatures appeared to have returned to pre-disturbance temperatures more quickly than expected. Results for upcoming months will be presented at the meeting. Soil respiration was relatively high in all plots (4.49 +/-1.19 g C m-2 hr-1). Contrary to expectations, respiration did not vary significantly with plot damage severity (R2 = 0.0676). The temperature and respiration data together suggest potentially rapid ecosystem recovery after these types of wind disturbances. The flush of understory growth in open patches may insulate the forest floor from solar radiation, even though the forest canopy is still open. These unexpected preliminary results may indicate that ecosystem processes in southern forests are more resilient to disturbances than previously thought. Although forests become carbon sinks immediately after disturbances, they may return to carbon neutral or sink status relatively quickly, given the right circumstances.

Seasonal movements, migratory behavior, and site fidelity of West Indian manatees along the Atlantic coast of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Deutsch, C.J.; Reid, J.P.; Bonde, R.K.; Easton, Dean E.; Kochman, H.I.; O'Shea, T.J.

2003-01-01

The West Indian manatee (Trichechus manatus) is endangered by human activities throughout its range, including the U.S. Atlantic coast where habitat degradation from coastal development and manatee deaths from watercraft collisions have been particularly severe. We radio-tagged and tracked 78 manatees along the east coast of Florida and Georgia over a 12-year period (1986-1998). Our goals were to characterize the seasonal movements, migratory behavior, and site fidelity of manatees in this region in order to provide information for the development of effective conservation strategies. Most study animals were tracked remotely with the Argos satellite system, which yielded a mean (SD) of 3.7 (1.6) locations per day; all were regularly tracked in the field using conventional radiotelemetry methods. The combined data collection effort yielded >93,000 locations over nearly 32,000 tag-days. The median duration of tracking was 8.3 months per individual, but numerous manatees were tracked over multiple years (max = 6.8 years). Most manatees migrated seasonally over large distances between a northerly warm-season range and a southerly winter range (median one-way distance = 280 km, max = 830 km), but 12% of individuals were resident in a relatively small area (2,300 km of coastline between southeastern Florida and Rhode Island. No study animals journeyed to the Gulf coast of Florida. Regions heavily utilized by tagged manatees included: Fernandina Beach, FL to Brunswick, GA in the warm season; northern Biscayne Bay to Port Everglades, FL in the winter; and central coastal Florida, especially the Banana River and northern Indian River lagoons, in all seasons. Daily travel rate, defined as the distance between successive mean daily locations, averaged 2.5 km (SD = 1.7), but this varied with season, migratory pattern, and sex. Adult males traveled a significantly greater distance per day than did adult females for most of the warm season, which corresponded closely with the principal period of breeding activity, but there was no difference between the sexes in daily travel rate during the winter. The timing of seasonal migrations differed markedly between geographic regions. Most long-distance movements in the southern half of the study area occurred between November and March in response to changing temperatures, whereas most migrations in the northern region took place during the warmer, non-winter months. Manatees left their warm-season range in central Florida in response to cold fronts that dropped water temperatures by an average of 2.0??C over the 24-hr period preceding departure. Water temperature at departure from the warm-season range averaged 19??C, but varied among individuals (16-22??C) and was not related to body size or female reproductive status. The presence of industrial warm-water effluents permitted many manatees to overwinter north of their historic winter range, and for some migrants this delayed autumn migrations and facilitated earlier spring migrations. Southward autumn and northward spring migrations lasted an average of 10 and 15 days at mean rates of 33.5 (SD = 7.6) and 27.3 (SD = 10.5) km/day, respectively. The highest rate of travel during migration was 87 km/day (3.6 km/hr) during winter. Manatees overwintering in southeastern Florida often traveled north during mild weather - sometimes reaching their warm-season range - only to return south again with the next major cold front. Manatees were consistent in their seasonal movement patterns across years and showed strong fidelity, to warm-season and winter ranges. Within a season, individuals usually occupied only 1 or 2 core use areas that encompassed about 90% of daily locations. Most manatees returned faithfully to the same seasonal ranges year after year (median distance between range centers was <5 km between years). Seasonal movements of 4 immature manatees tracked as calves with their mothers

How changes of climate extremes affect summer and winter crop yields and water productivity in the southeast USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, D.; Cammarano, D.

2017-12-01

Modeling changes of crop production at regional scale is important to make adaptation measures for sustainably food supply under global change. In this study, we explore how changing climate extremes in the 20th and 21st century affect maize (summer crop) and wheat (winter crop) yields in an agriculturally important region: the southeast United States. We analyze historical (1950-1999) and projected (2006-2055) precipitation and temperature extremes by calculating the changes of 18 climate extreme indices using the statistically downscaled CMIP5 data from 10 general circulation models (GCMs). To evaluate how these climate extremes affect maize and wheat yields, historical baseline and projected maize and wheat yields under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are simulated using the DSSAT-CERES maize and wheat models driven by the same downscaled GCMs data. All of the changes are examined at 110 locations over the study region. The results show that most of the precipitation extreme indices do not have notable change; mean precipitation, precipitation intensity, and maximum 1-day precipitation are generally increased; the number of rainy days is decreased. The temperature extreme indices mostly showed increased values on mean temperature, number of high temperature days, diurnal temperature range, consecutive high temperature days, maximum daily maximum temperature, and minimum daily minimum temperature; the number of low temperature days and number of consecutive low temperature days are decreased. The conditional probabilistic relationships between changes in crop yields and changes in extreme indices suggested different responses of crop yields to climate extremes during sowing to anthesis and anthesis to maturity periods. Wheat yields and crop water productivity for wheat are increased due to an increased CO2 concentration and minimum temperature; evapotranspiration, maize yields, and crop water productivity for wheat are decreased owing to the increased temperature extremes. We found the effects of precipitation changes on both yields are relatively uncertain.

Daily rhythms of physiological parameters in the dromedary camel under natural and laboratory conditions.

PubMed

Al-Haidary, Ahmed A; Abdoun, Khalid A; Samara, Emad M; Okab, Aly B; Sani, Mamane; Refinetti, Roberto

2016-08-01

Camels are well adapted to hot arid environments and can contribute significantly to the economy of developing countries in arid regions of the world. Full understanding of the physiology of camels requires understanding of the internal temporal order of the body, as reflected in daily or circadian rhythms. In the current study, we investigated the daily rhythmicity of 20 physiological variables in camels exposed to natural oscillations of ambient temperature in a desert environment and compared the daily temporal courses of the variables. We also studied the rhythm of core body temperature under experimental conditions with constant ambient temperature in the presence and absence of a light-dark cycle. The obtained results indicated that different physiological variables exhibit different degrees of daily rhythmicity and reach their daily peaks at different times of the day, starting with plasma cholesterol, which peaks 24min after midnight, and ending with plasma calcium, which peaks 3h before midnight. Furthermore, the rhythm of core body temperature persisted in the absence of environmental rhythmicity, thus confirming its endogenous nature. The observed delay in the acrophase of core body temperature rhythm under constant conditions suggests that the circadian period is longer than 24h. Further studies with more refined experimental manipulation of different variables are needed to fully elucidate the causal network of circadian rhythms in dromedary camels. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influence of meteorological and geomagnetic factors on acute myocardial infarction and brain stroke in Moscow, Russia.

PubMed

Shaposhnikov, Dmitry; Revich, Boris; Gurfinkel, Yuri; Naumova, Elena

2014-07-01

Evidence of the impact of air temperature and pressure on cardiovascular morbidity is still quite limited and controversial, and even less is known about the potential influence of geomagnetic activity. The objective of this study was to assess impacts of air temperature, barometric pressure and geomagnetic activity on hospitalizations with myocardial infarctions and brain strokes. We studied 2,833 myocardial infarctions and 1,096 brain strokes registered in two Moscow hospitals between 1992 and 2005. Daily event rates were linked with meteorological and geomagnetic conditions, using generalized linear model with controls for day of the week, seasonal and long-term trends. The number of myocardial infarctions decreased with temperature, displayed a U-shaped relationship with pressure and variations in pressure, and increased with geomagnetic activity. The number of strokes increased with temperature, daily temperature range and geomagnetic activity. Detrimental effects on strokes of low pressure and falling pressure were observed. Relative risks of infarctions and strokes during geomagnetic storms were 1.29 (95% CI 1.19-1.40) and 1.25 (1.10-1.42), respectively. The number of strokes doubled during cold spells. The influence of barometric pressure on hospitalizations was relatively greater than the influence of geomagnetic activity, and the influence of temperature was greater than the influence of pressure. Brain strokes were more sensitive to inclement weather than myocardial infarctions. This paper provides quantitative estimates of the expected increases in hospital admissions on the worst days and can help to develop preventive health plans for cardiovascular diseases.

The association between ambient temperature and children's lung function in Baotou, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shanshan; Guo, Yuming; Williams, Gail; Baker, Peter; Ye, Xiaofang; Madaniyazi, Lina; Kim, Dae-Seon; Pan, Xiaochuan

2015-07-01

The objective of this study is to examine the association between ambient temperature and children's lung function in Baotou, China. We recruited 315 children (8-12 years) from Baotou, China in the spring of 2004, 2005, and 2006. They performed three successive forced expiratory measurements three times daily (morning, noon, and evening) for about 5 weeks. The highest peak expiratory flow (PEF) was recorded for each session. Daily data on ambient temperature, relative humidity, and air pollution were monitored during the same period. Mixed models with a distributed lag structure were used to examine the effects of temperature on lung function while adjusting for individual characteristics and environmental factors. Low temperatures were significantly associated with decreases in PEF. The effects lasted for lag 0-2 days. For all participants, the cumulative effect estimates (lag 0-2 days) were -1.44 (-1.93, -0.94) L/min, -1.39 (-1.92, -0.86) L/min, -1.40 (-1.97, -0.82) L/min, and -1.28 (-1.69, -0.88) L/min for morning, noon, evening, and daily mean PEF, respectively, associated with 1 °C decrease in daily mean temperature. Generally, the effects of temperature were slightly stronger in boys than in girls for noon, evening, and daily mean PEF, while the effects were stronger in girls for morning PEF. PM2.5 had joint effects with temperature on children's PEF. Higher PM2.5 increased the impacts of low temperature. Low ambient temperatures are associated with lower lung function in children in Baotou, China. Preventive health policies will be required for protecting children from the cold weather.

Forest loss and Borneo’s climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McAlpine, Clive A.; Johnson, Alex; Salazar, Alvaro; Syktus, Jozef; Wilson, Kerrie; Meijaard, Erik; Seabrook, Leonie; Dargusch, Paul; Nordin, Haziq; Sheil, Douglas

2018-04-01

The equatorial island of Borneo is a deforestation hotspot. However, the influence of forest loss on the island’s climate remains largely unexplored. Here, we examine how forest loss is related to changes in ground-based records of temperature (1961–2007) and precipitation (1951–2007), and MODIS data for temperature (2002–2016). Analyses were performed for the entire island, lowland areas (<200 m ASL), and nine selected watersheds. We found a strong island-wide relationship between forest loss and increases in daily temperature and reductions in daily precipitation. The relationship between deforestation and changes in local climate was most pronounced for watersheds in southeast Borneo, which have lost 40%–75% of their forests since 1973. These watersheds also had a significantly higher frequency of temperatures above 31 °C. Watersheds in north and northwest Borneo, which have lost 5%–25% of their forest cover, maintained a more stable climate with a similar distribution of mean and extreme warm temperatures between forest and modified forest areas. Watersheds with >15% forest loss had a >15% reduction in rainfall. We conclude that loss of forest in Borneo has increased local daily temperatures and temperature extremes, and reduced daily precipitation.

Association between Daily Hospital Outpatient Visits for Accidents and Daily Ambient Air Temperatures in an Industrial City.

PubMed

Chau, Tang-Tat; Wang, Kuo-Ying

2016-01-01

An accident is an unwanted hazard to a person. However, accidents occur. In this work, we search for correlations between daily accident rates and environmental factors. To study daily hospital outpatients who were admitted for accidents during a 5-year period, 2007-2011, we analyzed data regarding 168,366 outpatients using univariate regression models; we also used multivariable regression models to account for confounding factors. Our analysis indicates that the number of male outpatients admitted for accidents was approximately 1.31 to 1.47 times the number of female outpatients (P < 0.0001). Of the 12 parameters (regarding air pollution and meteorology) considered, only daily temperature exhibited consistent and significant correlations with the daily number of hospital outpatient visits for accidents throughout the 5-year analysis period. The univariate regression models indicate that older people (greater than 66 years old) had the fewest accidents per 1-degree increase in temperature, followed by young people (0-15 years old). Middle-aged people (16-65 years old) were the group of outpatients that were more prone to accidents, with an increase in accident rates of 0.8-1.2 accidents per degree increase in temperature. The multivariable regression models also reveal that the temperature variation was the dominant factor in determining the daily number of outpatient visits for accidents. Our further multivariable model analysis of temperature with respect to air pollution variables show that, through the increases in emissions and concentrations of CO, photochemical O3 production and NO2 loss in the ambient air, increases in vehicular emissions are associated with increases in temperatures. As such, increases in hospital visits for accidents are related to vehicular emissions and usage. This finding is consistent with clinical experience which shows about 60% to 80% of accidents are related to traffic, followed by accidents occurred in work place.

Association between Daily Hospital Outpatient Visits for Accidents and Daily Ambient Air Temperatures in an Industrial City

PubMed Central

Chau, Tang-Tat; Wang, Kuo-Ying

2016-01-01

An accident is an unwanted hazard to a person. However, accidents occur. In this work, we search for correlations between daily accident rates and environmental factors. To study daily hospital outpatients who were admitted for accidents during a 5-year period, 2007–2011, we analyzed data regarding 168,366 outpatients using univariate regression models; we also used multivariable regression models to account for confounding factors. Our analysis indicates that the number of male outpatients admitted for accidents was approximately 1.31 to 1.47 times the number of female outpatients (P < 0.0001). Of the 12 parameters (regarding air pollution and meteorology) considered, only daily temperature exhibited consistent and significant correlations with the daily number of hospital outpatient visits for accidents throughout the 5-year analysis period. The univariate regression models indicate that older people (greater than 66 years old) had the fewest accidents per 1-degree increase in temperature, followed by young people (0–15 years old). Middle-aged people (16–65 years old) were the group of outpatients that were more prone to accidents, with an increase in accident rates of 0.8–1.2 accidents per degree increase in temperature. The multivariable regression models also reveal that the temperature variation was the dominant factor in determining the daily number of outpatient visits for accidents. Our further multivariable model analysis of temperature with respect to air pollution variables show that, through the increases in emissions and concentrations of CO, photochemical O3 production and NO2 loss in the ambient air, increases in vehicular emissions are associated with increases in temperatures. As such, increases in hospital visits for accidents are related to vehicular emissions and usage. This finding is consistent with clinical experience which shows about 60% to 80% of accidents are related to traffic, followed by accidents occurred in work place. PMID:26815039

Intravenous fluid temperature management by infrared thermometer.

PubMed

Lapostolle, Frédéric; Catineau, Jean; Le Toumelin, Philippe; Proust, Clément; Garrigue, Bruno; Galinski, Michel; Adnet, Frédéric

2006-03-01

The management of intravenous (IV) fluid temperature is a daily challenge in critical care, anesthesiology, and emergency medicine. Infusion of IV fluids at the right temperature partly influences clinical outcomes of critically ill patients. Nowadays, intravenous fluid temperature is poorly managed, as no suitable device is routinely available. Infrared (IR) thermometers have been recently developed for industrial, personal, or medical purposes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of an IR thermometer in measuring temperature of warmed and cooled infusion fluids in fluid bags. This study compared temperatures simultaneously recorded by an infrared thermometer and a temperature sensor. Temperatures of warmed (41 degrees C) and cooled (4 degrees C) infusion fluids in fluid bags were recorded by 2 independent operators every minute until IV bags' temperature reached ambient temperature. The relation curve was established with 576 measures. Temperature measures performed with an IR thermometer were perfectly linear and perfectly correlated with the reference method (R(2) = 0.995, P < 10(-5)). Infrared thermometers are efficient to measure IV fluid bag temperature in the range of temperatures used in clinical practice. As these devices are easy to use and inexpensive, they could be largely used in critical care, anesthesiology, or emergency medicine.

Aspects of Hydrological Modelling In The Punjab Himalayan and Karakoram Ranges, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loukas, A.; Khan, M. I.; Quick, M. C.

Various aspects of hydrologic modelling of high mountainous basins in the Punjab Hi- malayan and Karakoram ranges of Northern Pakistan were studied. The runoff from three basins in this region was simulated using the U.B.C. watershed model, which re- quires limited meteorological data of minimum and maximum daily temperature and precipitation. The structure of the model is based on the concept that the hydrolog- ical behavior is a function of elevation and thus, a watershed is conceptualized as a number of elevational zones. A simplified energy budget approach, which is based on daily maximum and minimum temperature and can account for forested and open areas, and aspect and latitude, is used in the U.B.C. model for the estimation of the snowmelt and glacier melt. The studied basins have different hydrological responses and limited data. The runoff from the first basin, the Astore basin, is mainly gener- ated by snowmelt. In the second basin, the Kunhar basin, the runoff is generated by snowmelt but significant redistribution of snow, caused by snow avalanches, affect the runoff generation. The third basin, the Hunza basin, is a highly glacierized basin and its runoff is mainly generated by glacier melt. The application of the U.B.C. watershed model to these three basins showed that the model could estimate reasonably well the runoff generated by the different components.

Climate-induced changes in river water temperature in North Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soto, Benedicto

2017-06-01

This study evaluates the effects of climate change on the thermal regime of 12 rivers in the Northern Iberian Peninsula by using a non-linear regression model that employs air temperature as the only input variable. Prediction of future air temperature was obtained from five regional climate models (RCMs) under emission scenario Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B. Prior to simulation of water temperature, air temperature was bias-corrected (B-C) by means of variance scaling (VS) method. This procedure allows an improvement of fit between observed and estimated air temperature for all climate models. The simulation of water temperature for the period 1990-2100 shows an increasing trend, which is higher for the period of June-August (summer) and September-November (autumn) (0.0275 and 0.0281 °C/year) than that of winter (December-February) and spring (March-May) (0.0181 and 0.0218 °C/year). In the high air temperature range, daily water temperature is projected to increase on average by 2.2-3.1 °C for 2061-2090 relative to 1961-1990. During the coldest days, the increment of water temperature would range between 1.0 and 1.7 °C. In fact, employing the numbers of days that water temperature exceeded the upper incipient lethal temperature (UILT) for brown trout (24.7 °C) has been noted that this threshold is exceeded 14.5 days per year in 2061-2090 while in 1961-1990, this values was exceeded 2.6 days per year of mean and 3.6 days per year in observation period (2000-2014).

The creation of future daily gridded datasets of precipitation and temperature with a spatial weather generator, Cyprus 2020-2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camera, Corrado; Bruggeman, Adriana; Hadjinicolaou, Panos; Pashiardis, Stelios; Lange, Manfred

2014-05-01

High-resolution gridded daily datasets are essential for natural resource management and the analysis of climate changes and their effects. This study aimed to create gridded datasets of daily precipitation and daily minimum and maximum temperature, for the future (2020-2050). The horizontal resolution of the developed datasets is 1 x 1 km2, covering the area under control of the Republic of Cyprus (5.760 km2). The study is divided into two parts. The first consists of the evaluation of the performance of different interpolation techniques for daily rainfall and temperature data (1980-2010) for the creation of the gridded datasets. Rainfall data recorded at 145 stations and temperature data from 34 stations were used. For precipitation, inverse distance weighting (IDW) performs best for local events, while a combination of step-wise geographically weighted regression and IDW proves to be the best method for large scale events. For minimum and maximum temperature, a combination of step-wise linear multiple regression and thin plate splines is recognized as the best method. Six Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the A1B SRES emission scenario from the EU ENSEMBLE project database were selected as sources for future climate projections. The RCMs were evaluated for their capacity to simulate Cyprus climatology for the period 1980-2010. Data for the period 2020-2050 from the three best performing RCMs were downscaled, using the change factors approach, at the location of observational stations. Daily time series were created with a stochastic rainfall and temperature generator. The RainSim V3 software (Burton et al., 2008) was used to generate spatial-temporal coherent rainfall fields. The temperature generator was developed in R and modeled temperature as a weakly stationary process with the daily mean and standard deviation conditioned on the wet and dry state of the day (Richardson, 1981). Finally gridded datasets depicting projected future climate conditions were created with the identified best interpolation methods. The difference between the input and simulated mean daily rainfall, averaged over all the stations, was 0.03 mm (2.2%), while the error related to the number of dry days was 2 (0.6%). For mean daily minimum temperature the error was 0.005 ºC (0.04%), while for maximum temperature it was 0.01 ºC (0.04%). Overall, the weather generators were found to be reliable instruments for the downscaling of precipitation and temperature. The resulting datasets indicate a decrease of the mean annual rainfall over the study area between 5 and 70 mm (1-15%) for 2020-2050, relative to 1980-2010. Average annual minimum and maximum temperature over the Republic of Cyprus are projected to increase between 1.2 and 1.5 ºC. The dataset is currently used to compute agricultural production and water use indicators, as part of the AGWATER project (AEIFORIA/GEORGO/0311(BIE)/06), co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund and the Republic of Cyprus through the Research Promotion Foundation. Burton, A., Kilsby, C.G., Fowler, H.J., Cowpertwait, P.S.P., and O'Connell, P.E.: RainSim: A spatial-temporal stochastic rainfall modelling system. Environ. Model. Software 23, 1356-1369, 2008 Richardson, C.W.: Stochastic simulation of daily precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation. Water Resour. Res. 17, 182-190, 1981.

Selected micrometeorological, soil-moisture, and evapotranspiration data at Amargosa Desert Research Site in Nye County near Beatty, Nevada, 2001-05

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Michael J.; Mayers, C. Justin; Garcia, C. Amanda; Andraski, Brian J.

2007-01-01

Selected micrometeorological and soil-moisture data were collected at the Amargosa Desert Research Site adjacent to a low-level radio-active waste and hazardous chemical waste facility near Beatty, Nevada, 2001-05. Evapotranspiration data were collected from February 2002 through the end of December 2005. Data were col-lected in support of ongoing research to improve the understanding of hydrologic and contaminant-transport processes in arid environments. Micrometeorological data include solar radiation, net radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, saturated and ambient vapor pressure, wind speed and direction, barometric pressure, precipitation, near-surface soil temperature, soil-heat flux and soil-water content. All micrometeorological data were collected using a 10-second sampling interval by data loggers that output daily and hourly mean values. Daily maximum and minimum values are based on hourly mean values. Precipitation data output includes daily and hourly totals. Selected soil-moisture profiles at depth include periodic measurements of soil volumetric water-content measurements at nine neutron-probe access tubes to depths ranging from 5.25 to 29.25 meters. Evapotranspiration data include measurement of daily evapotranspiration and 15-minute fluxes of the four principal energy budget components of latent-heat flux, sensible-heat flux, soil-heat flux, and net radiation. Other data collected and used in equations to determine evapotranspiration include temperature and water content of soil, temperature and vapor pressure of air, and covariance values. Evapotranspiration and flux estimates during 15-minute intervals were calculated at a 0.1-second execution interval using the eddy covariance method. Data files included in this report contain the complete micrometeorological, soil-moisture, and evapotranspiration field data sets. These data files are presented in tabular Excel spreadsheet format. This report highlights selected data contained in the computer generated data files using figures, tables, and brief discussions. Instrumentation used for data collection also is described. Water-content profiles are shown to demonstrate variability of water content with depth. Time-series data are plotted to illustrate temporal variations in micrometeorological, soil-water content, and evapotranspiration data.

Land Surface Temperature Measurements from EOS MODIS Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wan, Zheng-Ming

2004-01-01

This report summarizes the accomplishments made by the MODIS LST (Land-Surface Temperature) group at University of California, Santa Barbara, under NASA Contract. Version 1 of the MODIS Land-Surface Temperature Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document (ATBD) was reviewed in June 1994, version 2 reviewed in November 1994, version 3.1 in August 1996, and version 3.3 updated in April 1999. Based on the ATBD, two LST algorithms were developed, one is the generalized split-window algorithm and another is the physics-based day/night LST algorithm. These two LST algorithms were implemented into the production generation executive code (PGE 16) for the daily standard MODIS LST products at level-2 (MODII-L2) and level-3 (MODIIA1 at 1 km resolution and MODIIB1 at 5km resolution). PGE codes for 8-day 1 km LST product (MODIIA2) and the daily, 8-day and monthly LST products at 0.05 degree latitude/longitude climate model grids (CMG) were also delivered. Four to six field campaigns were conducted each year since 2000 to validate the daily LST products generated by PGE16 and the calibration accuracies of the MODIS TIR bands used for the LST/emissivity retrieval from versions 2-4 of Terra MODIS data and versions 3-4 of Aqua MODIS data. Validation results from temperature-based and radiance-based methods indicate that the MODIS LST accuracy is better than 1 C in most clear-sky cases in the range from -10 to 58 C. One of the major lessons learn from multi- year temporal analysis of the consistent V4 daily Terra MODIS LST products in 2000-2003 over some selected target areas including lakes, snow/ice fields, and semi-arid sites is that there are variable numbers of cloud-contaminated LSTs in the MODIS LST products depending on surface elevation, land cover types, and atmospheric conditions. A cloud-screen scheme with constraints on spatial and temporal variations in LSTs was developed to remove cloud-contaminated LSTs. The 5km LST product was indirectly validated through comparisons to the 1 km LST product. Twenty three papers related to the LST research work were published in journals over the last decade.

Complex and interactive effects of ocean acidification and temperature on epilithic and endolithic coral-reef turf algal assemblages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Maggie D.; Comeau, Steeve; Lantz, Coulson A.; Smith, Jennifer E.

2017-12-01

Turf algal assemblages are ubiquitous primary producers on coral reefs, but little is known about the response of this diverse group to ocean acidification (OA) across different temperatures. We tested the hypothesis that CO2 influences the functional response of epilithic and endolithic turf assemblages to increasing temperature. Replicate carbonate plugs covered by turf were collected from the reef and exposed to ambient and high pCO2 (1000 µatm) conditions for 3 weeks. Each pCO2 treatment was replicated across six temperatures (24.0-31.5 °C) that spanned the full seasonal temperature range on a fringing reef in Moorea, French Polynesia, and included one warming treatment (3 °C above daily average temperatures). Temperature and CO2 enrichment had complex, and sometimes interactive, effects on turf metabolism and growth. Photosynthetic and respiration rates were enhanced by increasing temperature, with an interactive effect of CO2 enrichment. Photosynthetic rates were amplified by high CO2 in the warmest temperatures, while the increase in respiration rates with temperature were enhanced under ambient CO2. Epilithic turf growth rates were not affected by temperature, but increased in response to CO2 enrichment. We found that CO2 and temperature interactively affected the endolithic assemblage, with the highest growth rates under CO2 enrichment, but only at the warmest temperatures. These results demonstrate how OA may influence algal physiology and growth across a range of ecologically relevant temperatures, and indicate that the effects of CO2 enrichment on coral-reef turf assemblages can be temperature dependent. The complex effects of CO2 enrichment and temperature across a suite of algal responses illustrates the importance of incorporating multiple stressors into global change experiments.

Multivariate Regression Analysis of Winter Ozone Events in the Uinta Basin of Eastern Utah, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansfield, M. L.

2012-12-01

I report on a regression analysis of a number of variables that are involved in the formation of winter ozone in the Uinta Basin of Eastern Utah. One goal of the analysis is to develop a mathematical model capable of predicting the daily maximum ozone concentration from values of a number of independent variables. The dependent variable is the daily maximum ozone concentration at a particular site in the basin. Independent variables are (1) daily lapse rate, (2) daily "basin temperature" (defined below), (3) snow cover, (4) midday solar zenith angle, (5) monthly oil production, (6) monthly gas production, and (7) the number of days since the beginning of a multi-day inversion event. Daily maximum temperature and daily snow cover data are available at ten or fifteen different sites throughout the basin. The daily lapse rate is defined operationally as the slope of the linear least-squares fit to the temperature-altitude plot, and the "basin temperature" is defined as the value assumed by the same least-squares line at an altitude of 1400 m. A multi-day inversion event is defined as a set of consecutive days for which the lapse rate remains positive. The standard deviation in the accuracy of the model is about 10 ppb. The model has been combined with historical climate and oil & gas production data to estimate historical ozone levels.

Influence of ambient fungal spores on emergency visits for asthma to a regional children's hospital.

PubMed

Dales, R E; Cakmak, S; Burnett, R T; Judek, S; Coates, F; Brook, J R

2000-12-01

The impact of ambient aeroallergens on morbidity from childhood asthma is largely unknown. To address this issue, we studied the association between daily emergency department visits for asthma to a children's hospital, and daily concentrations of both pollen grains and fungal spores during a 5-yr period between 1993 and 1997. Air pollution and meteorological data accounted for in the analyses included ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, sulfates, temperature, barometric pressure, and relative humidity. The daily number of asthma visits ranged from 0 to 36 per day with an average of 7.5. Fungal spores, but not pollen grains, were associated with visits (p < 0.05). The percentage increase associated with each group, independent of the others, was 1.9% (SE 0.9) for deuteromycetes, 4.1% (1.6) for basidiomycetes, 2.8% (1.0) for ascomycetes, and 8.8% for these spores combined. In summary, fungal spores account for a significant proportion of the asthma exacerbations in children that prompt an emergency department visit.

A dynamic model for plant growth: validation study under changing temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wann, M.; Raper, C. D. Jr; Raper CD, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

1984-01-01

A dynamic simulation model to describe vegetative growth of plants, for which some functions and parameter values have been estimated previously by optimization search techniques and numerical experimentation based on data from constant temperature experiments, is validated under conditions of changing temperatures. To test the predictive capacity of the model, dry matter accumulation in the leaves, stems, and roots of tobacco plants (Nicotiana tabacum L.) was measured at 2- or 3-day intervals during a 5-week period when temperatures in controlled-environment rooms were programmed for changes at weekly and daily intervals and in ascending or descending sequences within a range of 14 to 34 degrees C. Simulations of dry matter accumulation and distribution were carried out using the programmed changes for experimental temperatures and compared with the measured values. The agreement between measured and predicted values was close and indicates that the temperature-dependent functional forms derived from constant-temperature experiments are adequate for modelling plant growth responses to conditions of changing temperatures with switching intervals as short as 1 day.

Effects of high summer temperatures on mortality in 50 Spanish cities.

PubMed

Tobías, Aurelio; Armstrong, Ben; Gasparrini, Antonio; Diaz, Julio

2014-06-09

Periods of high temperature have been widely found to be associated with excess mortality but with variable relationships in different cities. How these specifics depend on climatic and other characteristics of cities is not well understood. We assess summer temperature-mortality relationships using data from 50 provincial capitals in Spain, during the period 1990-2004. Poisson time series regression analyses were applied to daily temperature and mortality data, adjusting for potential confounding seasonal factors. Associations of heat with mortality were summarised for each city as the risk increments at the 99th compared to the 90th percentiles of the whole-year temperature distributions, as predicted from spline curves. Risk increments averaged 14.6% between both centiles, or 3.3% per 1 Celsius degree. Although risk increments varied substantially between cities, the range of temperature from the 90th to 99th centile was the only characteristic independently significantly associated with them. The heat increment did not depend on other city climatic, socio-demographic and geographic determinants. Cities in Spain are partially adapted to high mean summer temperatures but not to high variation in summer temperatures.

Relationships between weather and myocardial infarction: a biometeorological approach.

PubMed

Morabito, Marco; Modesti, Pietro Amedeo; Cecchi, Lorenzo; Crisci, Alfonso; Orlandini, Simone; Maracchi, Giampiero; Gensini, Gian Franco

2005-12-07

To calculate threshold values of weather discomfort which increase the risk of hospital admissions for myocardial infarction in winter and summer. Notwithstanding heat waves were reported to acutely increase hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases, large surveys failed to reveal any increase of event rates with increasing air temperature. However, the assessment of air temperature does not allow evaluation of the actual discomfort perception caused by the combination of different meteorological parameters. Hospital admissions for myocardial infarction for the period 1998-2002 in Florence, Italy, were considered. The percentages of variation of daily event rates according to daily mean air temperature variations were preliminary derived by using a regression analysis. An alternative biometeorological approach, considering the Apparent Temperature Index (ATI) in summer, and the New U.S./Canada Wind Chill Temperature Index (NWCTI) in winter, which combine air temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity, was then used. The traditional approach showed that daily event rates significantly increased with daily mean air temperature decrease (10 degrees C decrease were associated with 19% increase in daily event rates for people older than 65 years), but failed to show any negative effect caused by hot climatic conditions. Conversely the biometeorological approach allowed to show that at least 9 h per day of severe discomfort caused by hot conditions significantly increased the rate of admission (P<0.01). This approach might be useful for the development of an operative weather watch/warning system for population and for hospital professional care.

Satellite Monitoring of Long Term Changes in Intertidal Thermal Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purvis, C. L.; Lakshmi, V.; Helmuth, B.

2006-12-01

Documented trends of global climate change have implications for species dynamics, range boundaries and mortality rates. A generalized assumption about global warming is that species will shift poleward in response to the increased temperatures, thereby displacing pre-existing species at higher latitudes. However, studies such as those conducted along the rocky shorelines of the U.S. have shown that such a simplified ecosystem response is unrealistic. Habitat alterations due to climate change are greatly influenced by local conditions, resulting in a patchwork of varying responses to temperature changes all along the intertidal. In order to capture these spatially- and temporally-dependent dynamics, satellite observations of land and sea surface temperatures (LST and SST) have been assimilated for the Pacific coast from Vancouver Island to southern California. Images from three satellite sensors were included in the study: MODIS/Terra, MODIS/Aqua and ASTER/Terra. MODIS has a spatial resolution of 1km (LST) and 4km (SST), daily coverage and overpass times of 10:30am and 1:30pm. ASTER has a spatial resolution of 90m (LST), sporadic temporal coverage due to an on-demand status and a 10:30am crossing time. The remotely sensed data were statistically compared to nearly 10 years of in situ measurements of body temperature of the California mussel along the Pacific coast. This species is prevalent among the rocky intertidal areas, physiologically well studied in terms of heat response and situated in a thermally harsh environment which demonstrates strong responses to climate change. A regression was performed to account for noise such as tidal signals, changes in latitude among sites as well as seasonal fluctuations in body temperature. Comparisons show that while the satellite data are unable to capture many of the daily maximum body temperatures (due to overpass times), they do offer a fairly accurate method of capturing high temporal resolution temperatures over large areas. In addition, satellite measurements were utilized to investigate the spatial distribution of intertidal mussels in Humboldt Bay, CA. In situ measurements are not prevalent enough to explain the potentially heat-driven range of mussels in this critical habitat, and therefore remotely sensed data will be used to gather new insight into thermally-regulated range boundaries of this species. By incorporating satellite measurements into in-depth habitat studies, long term thermal variations due to climate change can be monitored over large regions and aid in capturing larger-scale impacts which cannot be accomplished by tedious, site-specific in situ studies.

An investigation of the safety and pharmacokinetics of the novel TRPV1 antagonist XEN-D0501 in healthy subjects

PubMed Central

Round, Patrick; Priestley, Anthony; Robinson, Jan

2011-01-01

AIMS XEN-D0501, a novel TRPV1 antagonist, is being developed to treat overactive bladder. This study investigated the safety and pharmacokinetics of repeat-dose XEN-D0501 in healthy subjects. METHODS The study was conducted in two parts. Part 1 was a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, two-way crossover study in three cohorts of 12 young male subjects. Each subject received XEN-D0501 and placebo (in random order) twice daily for 13 days, with a final single dose on day 14. Doses of 1, 2.5 and 5 mg XEN-D0501 were investigated. Part 2 was an open-label, randomized, two-way crossover study in male and female subjects (45 to 65 years). Subjects received single doses of 5 mg XEN-D0501 under fasted and fed conditions in random order. Blood sampling and safety assessments were conducted throughout the study. RESULTS XEN-D0501 was rapidly absorbed (tmax generally 0.5–4 h post dose). XEN-D0501 exposure increased less than proportionally to dose over the range studied and exhibited minimal accumulation with twice daily dosing. Food had no clinically relevant effects on the pharmacokinetics of XEN-D0501. There were no severe or serious adverse events and all doses were well tolerated. A dose-related increase in body temperature was seen with XEN-D0501 which attenuated over time. Differences from placebo in mean maximum core body temperatures were 0.22°C, 0.5°C and 0.74°C following 1 mg, 2.5 mg and 5 mg twice daily XEN-D0501. The observed increase in body temperature was not considered to be of clinical concern. CONCLUSIONS XEN-D0501 appeared safe and well tolerated at doses up to 5 mg twice daily for 14 days in healthy subjects. PMID:21676011

Continuous salinity and temperature data from san francisco estuary, 19822002: Trends and the salinity-freshwater inflow relationship

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shellenbarger, G.G.; Schoellhamer, D.H.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey and other federal and state agencies have been collecting continuous temperature and salinity data, two critical estuarine habitat variables, throughout San Francisco estuary for over two decades. Although this dynamic, highly variable system has been well studied, many questions remain relating to the effects of freshwater inflow and other physical and biological linkages. This study examines up to 20 years of publically available, continuous temperature and salinity data from 10 different San Francisco Bay stations to identify trends in temperature and salinity and quantify the salinityfreshwater inflow relationship. Several trends in the salinity and temperature records were identified, although the high degree of daily and interannual variability confounds the analysis. In addition, freshwater inflow to the estuary has a range of effects on salinity from -0.0020 to -0.0096 (m3 s-1) -1 discharge, depending on location in the estuary and the timescale of analyzed data. Finally, we documented that changes in freshwater inflow to the estuary that are within the range of typical management actions can affect bay-wide salinities by 0.61.4. This study reinforces the idea that multidecadal records are needed to identify trends from decadal changes in water management and climate and, therefore, are extremely valuable. ?? 2011 Coastal Education & Research Foundation.

Daily ambient temperature and renal colic incidence in Guangzhou, China: a time-series analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Changyuan; Chen, Xinyu; Chen, Renjie; Cai, Jing; Meng, Xia; Wan, Yue; Kan, Haidong

2016-08-01

Few previous studies have examined the association between temperature and renal colic in developing regions, especially in China, the largest developing country in the world. We collected daily emergency ambulance dispatches (EADs) for renal colic from Guangzhou Emergency Center from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2012. We used a distributed-lag nonlinear model in addition to the over-dispersed generalized additive model to investigate the association between daily ambient temperature and renal colic incidence after controlling for seasonality, humidity, public holidays, and day of the week. We identified 3158 EADs for renal colic during the study period. This exposure-response curve was almost flat when the temperature was low and moderate and elevated when the temperature increased over 21 °C. For heat-related effects, the significant risk occurred on the concurrent day and diminished until lag day 7. The cumulative relative risk of hot temperatures (90th percentile) and extremely hot temperatures (99th percentile) over lag days 0-7 was 1.92 (95 % confidence interval, 1.21, 3.05) and 2.45 (95 % confidence interval, 1.50, 3.99) compared with the reference temperature of 21 °C. This time-series analysis in Guangzhou, China, suggested a nonlinear and lagged association between high outdoor temperatures and daily EADs for renal colic. Our findings might have important public health significance to prevent renal colic.

Relationships between water temperatures and upstream migration, cold water refuge use, and spawning of adult bull trout from the Lostine River, Oregon, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howell, P.J.; Dunham, J.B.; Sankovich, P.M.

2010-01-01

Understanding thermal habitat use by migratory fish has been limited by difficulties in matching fish locations with water temperatures. To describe spatial and temporal patterns of thermal habitat use by migratory adult bull trout, Salvelinus confluentus, that spawn in the Lostine River, Oregon, we employed a combination of archival temperature tags, radio tags, and thermographs. We also compared temperatures of the tagged fish to ambient water temperatures to determine if the fish were using thermal refuges. The timing and temperatures at which fish moved upstream from overwintering areas to spawning locations varied considerably among individuals. The annual maximum 7-day average daily maximum (7DADM) temperatures of tagged fish were 16-18 ??C and potentially as high as 21 ??C. Maximum 7DADM ambient water temperatures within the range of tagged fish during summer were 18-25 ??C. However, there was no evidence of the tagged fish using localized cold water refuges. Tagged fish appeared to spawn at 7DADM temperatures of 7-14 ??C. Maximum 7DADM temperatures of tagged fish and ambient temperatures at the onset of the spawning period in late August were 11-18 ??C. Water temperatures in most of the upper Lostine River used for spawning and rearing appear to be largely natural since there has been little development, whereas downstream reaches used by migratory bull trout are heavily diverted for irrigation. Although the population effects of these temperatures are unknown, summer temperatures and the higher temperatures observed for spawning fish appear to be at or above the upper range of suitability reported for the species. Published 2009. This article is a US Governmentwork and is in the public domain in the USA.

Seasonal Changes in Serum Thyrotropin Concentrations Observed from Big Data Obtained During Six Consecutive Years from 2010 to 2015 at a Single Hospital in Japan.

PubMed

Yoshihara, Ai; Noh, Jaeduk Yoshimura; Watanabe, Natsuko; Iwaku, Kenji; Kunii, Yo; Ohye, Hidemi; Suzuki, Miho; Matsumoto, Masako; Suzuki, Nami; Sugino, Kiminori; Thienpont, Linda M; Hishinuma, Akira; Ito, Koichi

2018-04-01

This study analyzed big data for serum thyrotropin (TSH), free triiodothyronine (fT3), and free thyroxine (fT4) concentrations in patients who had attended the outpatient clinic of Ito Hospital (Tokyo, Japan) during a recent six-year period (between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2015) in order to investigate for seasonal changes. The serum TSH concentrations were reviewed for all 135,417 patients aged >20 years. Patients with any thyroid diseases were included, irrespective of whether they were receiving drug therapy. In total 1,637,721 serum samples were analyzed for TSH, 1,626,269 for fT3, and 1,669,381 for fT4. It was observed that the TSH concentrations showed annual changes during the six-year period. They decreased during the summer, while they increased during the winter. The TSH concentrations were negatively correlated with the daily temperatures (Spearman rank correlation coefficient -0.4486; p < 0.0001). The same applied for the correlation between fT3 concentrations and daily temperatures. The fact that the TSH concentrations show annual changes in areas where the temperature ranges during the year are rather wide should be borne in mind for interpretation of results.

Associations of stream health to altered flow and water temperature in the Sierra Nevada, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carlisle, Daren M.; S. Mark Nelson,; May, Jason

2016-01-01

Alteration of streamflow and thermal conditions may adversely affect lotic invertebrate communities, but few studies have assessed these phenomena using indicators that control for the potentially confounding influence of natural variability. We designed a study to assess how flow and thermal alteration influence stream health – as indicated by the condition of invertebrate communities. We studied thirty streams in the Sierra Nevada, California, that span a wide range of hydrologic modification due to storage reservoirs and hydroelectric diversions. Daily water temperature and streamflows were monitored, and basic chemistry and habitat conditions were characterized when invertebrate communities were sampled. Streamflow alteration, thermal alteration, and invertebrate condition were quantified by predicting site-specific natural expectations using statistical models developed using data from regional reference sites. Monthly flows were typically depleted (relative to natural expectations) during fall, winter, and spring. Most hydrologically altered sites experienced cooled thermal conditions in summer, with mean daily temperatures as much 12 °C below natural expectations. The most influential predictor of invertebrate community condition was the degree of alteration of March flows, which suggests that there are key interactions between hydrological and biological processes during this month in Sierra Nevada streams. Thermal alteration was also an important predictor – particularly at sites with the most severe hydrological alteration.

Ecological observations on the colonial ascidian Didemnum sp. in a New England tide pool habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Valentine, P.C.; Carman, M.R.; Blackwood, D.S.; Heffron, E.J.

2007-01-01

The colonial ascidian Didemnum sp. has colonized northwestern Atlantic coastal habitats from southern Long Island, New York, to Eastport, Maine. It is also present in offshore habitats of the Georges Bank fishing grounds. It threatens to alter fisheries habitats and shellfish aquacultures. Observations in a tide pool at Sandwich, MA from December 2003 to February 2006 show that Didemnum sp. tolerates water temperatures ranging from ≤ 1 to > 24 °C, with daily changes of up to 11 °C. It attaches to pebbles, cobbles, and boulders, and it overgrows other tunicates, seaweeds, sponges, and bivalves. From May to mid July, colonies appear as small patches on the bottoms of rocks. Colonies grow rapidly from July to September, with some growth into December, and they range in color from pink to pale yellow to pale orange. Colony health declines from October through April, presumably in response to changes in water temperatures, and this degenerative process is manifested by color changes, by the appearance of small dark brown spots that represent clumps of fecal pellets in the colony, by scavenging by periwinkles, and by a peeling-away of colonies from the sides of cobbles and boulders. At Sandwich, colonies died that were exposed to air at low tide. The species does not exhibit this seasonal cycle of growth and decline in subtidal habitats (40–65 m) on the Georges Bank fishing grounds where the daily climate is relatively stable and annual water temperatures range from 4 to 15 °C. Experiments in the tide pool with small colony fragments (5 to 9 cm2) show they re-attach and grow rapidly by asexual budding, increasing in size 6- to 11-fold in the first 15 days. Didemnum sp. at Sandwich has no known predators except for common periwinkles (Littorina littorea) that graze on degenerating colonies in the October to April time period and whenever colonies are stressed by desiccation. The tendencies of the ascidian (1) to attach to firm substrates, (2) to rapidly overgrow other species, (3) to tolerate a wide temperature range, (4) to be free from predation, and (5) to spread by colony fragmentation combine to make it a potential threat to benthic marine habitats and aquacultures. Didemnum sp. is known to overgrow mussels, oysters, and sea scallops, and it likely envelops other bivalves too.

Seasonal patterns in body temperature of free-living rock hyrax (Procavia capensis).

PubMed

Brown, Kelly J; Downs, Colleen T

2006-01-01

Rock hyrax (Procavia capensis) are faced with large daily fluctuations in ambient temperature during summer and winter. In this study, peritoneal body temperature of free-living rock hyrax was investigated. During winter, when low ambient temperatures and food supply prevail, rock hyrax maintained a lower core body temperature relative to summer. In winter body temperatures during the day were more variable than at night. This daytime variability is likely a result of body temperatures being raised from basking in the sun. Body temperatures recorded during winter never fell to low levels recorded in previous laboratory studies. During summer ambient temperatures exceeded the thermoneutral zone of the rock hyrax throughout most of the day, while crevice temperatures remained within the thermoneutral zone of rock hyrax. However, in summer variation in core body temperature was small. Minimum and maximum body temperatures did not coincide with minimum and maximum ambient temperatures. Constant body temperatures were also recorded when ambient temperatures reached lethal limits. During summer it is likely that rock hyrax select cooler refugia to escape lethal temperatures and to prevent excessive water loss. Body temperature of rock hyrax recorded in this study reflects the adaptability of this animal to the wide range of ambient temperatures experienced in its natural environment.

A fixed tilt solar collector employing reversible vee-trough reflectors and vacuum tube receivers for solar heating and cooling systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Selcuk, M. K.

1977-01-01

The usefulness of vee-trough concentrators in improving the efficiency and reducing the cost of collectors assembled from evacuated tube receivers was studied in the vee-trough/vacuum tube collector (VTVTC) project. The VTVTC was analyzed rigorously and various mathematical models were developed to calculate the optical performance of the vee-trough concentrator and the thermal performance of the evacuated tube receiver. A test bed was constructed to verify the mathematical analyses and compare reflectors made out of glass, Alzak and aluminized FEP Teflon. Tests were run at temperatures ranging from 95 to 180 C. Vee-trough collector efficiencies of 35 to 40% were observed at an operating temperature of about 175 C. Test results compared well with the calculated values. Predicted daily useful heat collection and efficiency values are presented for a year's duration of operation temperatures ranging from 65 to 230 C. Estimated collector costs and resulting thermal energy costs are presented. Analytical and experimental results are discussed along with a complete economic evaluation.

Temperature fluctuations inside savanna termite mounds: Do size and plant shade matter?

PubMed

Ndlovu, M; Pérez-Rodríguez, A

2018-05-01

Mound building termites are key ecosystem engineers of subtropical savanna regions. Mounds allow termites to maintain suitable conditions for termite reproduction and food cultivation ('fungus gardens'). We studied how the internal mound temperature of Macrotermes natalensis, a dominant mound-building termite of the subtropical savanna of southern Africa, responds to a number of environmental variables. We used general additive mixed models (GAMM) to determine how external temperature, mound size (volume) and the amount of vegetation shade affects mound internal temperature over a 24-h period. Internal mound temperature varied daily following changes of the external temperature, although the range of variation was much smaller. Active termite mounds maintained a higher internal temperature than inactive ones, and mound activity reinforced the positive effect of mound size and moderated the negative effect of vegetation shade on internal temperatures. In turn, external temperature fluctuations equally affected active and inactive mounds. Large mounds maintained near optimal internal temperatures compared to smaller sized mounds. We therefore conclude that termite mound size is a stronger determinant of internal mound temperature stability compared to plant shade cover. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive capacity at the northern front: sockeye salmon behaviourally thermoregulate during novel exposure to warm temperatures

PubMed Central

Armstrong, Jonathan B.; Ward, Eric J.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Lisi, Peter J.

2016-01-01

As climate change increases maximal water temperatures, behavioural thermoregulation may be crucial for the persistence of coldwater fishes, such as salmonids. Although myriad studies have documented behavioural thermoregulation in southern populations of salmonids, few if any have explored this phenomenon in northern populations, which are less likely to have an evolutionary history of heat stress, yet are predicted to experience substantial warming. Here, we treated a rare heat wave as a natural experiment to test whether wild sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) at the northern extent of their primary range (60° latitude) can thermoregulate in response to abnormally high thermal conditions. We tagged adult sockeye salmon with temperature loggers as they staged in a lake epilimnion prior to spawning in small cold streams (n = 40 recovered loggers). As lake surface temperatures warmed to physiologically suboptimal levels (15–20°C), sockeye salmon thermoregulated by moving to tributary plumes or the lake metalimnion. A regression of fish body temperature against lake surface temperature indicated that fish moved to cooler waters when the epilimnion temperature exceeded ~12°C. A bioenergetics model suggested that the observed behaviour reduced daily metabolic costs by as much as ~50% during the warmest conditions (18–20°C). These results provide rare evidence of cool-seeking thermoregulation at the poleward extent of a species range, emphasizing the potential ubiquity of maximal temperature constraints and the functional significance of thermal heterogeneity for buffering poikilotherms from climate change. PMID:27729980

International study of temperature, heat and urban mortality: the 'ISOTHURM' project.

PubMed

McMichael, Anthony J; Wilkinson, Paul; Kovats, R Sari; Pattenden, Sam; Hajat, Shakoor; Armstrong, Ben; Vajanapoom, Nitaya; Niciu, Emilia M; Mahomed, Hassan; Kingkeow, Chamnong; Kosnik, Mitja; O'Neill, Marie S; Romieu, Isabelle; Ramirez-Aguilar, Matiana; Barreto, Mauricio L; Gouveia, Nelson; Nikiforov, Bojidar

2008-10-01

This study describes heat- and cold-related mortality in 12 urban populations in low- and middle-income countries, thereby extending knowledge of how diverse populations, in non-OECD countries, respond to temperature extremes. The cities were: Delhi, Monterrey, Mexico City, Chiang Mai, Bangkok, Salvador, São Paulo, Santiago, Cape Town, Ljubljana, Bucharest and Sofia. For each city, daily mortality was examined in relation to ambient temperature using autoregressive Poisson models (2- to 5-year series) adjusted for season, relative humidity, air pollution, day of week and public holidays. Most cities showed a U-shaped temperature-mortality relationship, with clear evidence of increasing death rates at colder temperatures in all cities except Ljubljana, Salvador and Delhi and with increasing heat in all cities except Chiang Mai and Cape Town. Estimates of the temperature threshold below which cold-related mortality began to increase ranged from 15 degrees C to 29 degrees C; the threshold for heat-related deaths ranged from 16 degrees C to 31 degrees C. Heat thresholds were generally higher in cities with warmer climates, while cold thresholds were unrelated to climate. Urban populations, in diverse geographic settings, experience increases in mortality due to both high and low temperatures. The effects of heat and cold vary depending on climate and non-climate factors such as the population disease profile and age structure. Although such populations will undergo some adaptation to increasing temperatures, many are likely to have substantial vulnerability to climate change. Additional research is needed to elucidate vulnerability within populations.

Taking the heat: thermoregulation in Asian elephants under different climatic conditions.

PubMed

Weissenböck, Nicole M; Arnold, Walter; Ruf, Thomas

2012-02-01

Some mammals indigenous to desert environments, such as camels, cope with high heat load by tolerating an increase in body temperature (T (b)) during the hot day, and by dissipating excess heat during the cooler night hours, i.e., heterothermy. Because diurnal heat storage mechanisms should be favoured by large body size, we investigated whether this response also exists in Asian elephants when exposed to warm environmental conditions of their natural habitat. We compared daily cycles of intestinal T (b) of 11 adult Asian elephants living under natural ambient temperatures (T (a)) in Thailand (mean T (a) ~ 30°C) and in 6 Asian elephants exposed to cooler conditions (mean T (a) ~ 21°C) in Germany. Elephants in Thailand had mean daily ranges of T (b) oscillations (1.15°C) that were significantly larger than in animals kept in Germany (0.51°C). This was due to both increased maximum T (b) during the day and decreased minimum T (b) at late night. Elephant's minimum T (b) lowered daily as T (a) increased and hence entered the day with a thermal reserve for additional heat storage, very similar to arid-zone ungulates. We conclude that these responses show all characteristics of heterothermy, and that this thermoregulatory strategy is not restricted to desert mammals, but is also employed by Asian elephants.

Polar microwave brightness temperatures from Nimbus-7 SMMR: Time series of daily and monthly maps from 1978 to 1987

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.; Zwally, H. Jay

1989-01-01

A time series of daily brightness temperature gridded maps (October 25, 1978 through August 15, 1987) were generated from all ten channels of the Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer orbital data. This unique data set can be utilized in a wide range of applications including heat flux, ocean circulation, ice edge productivity, and climate studies. Two sets of data in polar stereographic format are created for the Arctic region: one with a grid size of about 30 km on a 293 by 293 array similar to that previously utilized for the Nimbus-5 Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer, while the other has a grid size of about 25 km on a 448 by 304 array identical to what is now being used for the DMSP Scanning Multichannel Microwave Imager. Data generated for the Antaractic region are mapped using the 293 by 293 grid only. The general technique for mapping, and a quality assessment of the data set are presented. Monthly and yearly averages are also generated from the daily data and sample geophysical ice images and products derived from the data are given. Contour plots of monthly ice concentrations derived from the data for October 1978 through August 1987 are presented to demonstrate spatial and temporal detail which this data set can offer, and to show potential research applications.

Determination of uptake kinetics (sampling rates) by lipid-containing semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huckins, J.N.; Petty, J.D.; Orazio, C.E.; Lebo, J.A.; Clark, R.C.; Gibson, V.L.; Gala, W.R.; Echols, K.R.

1999-01-01

The use of lipid-containing semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) is becoming commonplace, but very little sampling rate data are available for the estimation of ambient contaminant concentrations from analyte levels in exposed SPMDs. We determined the aqueous sampling rates (R(s)s; expressed as effective volumes of water extracted daily) of the standard (commercially available design) 1-g triolein SPMD for 15 of the priority pollutant (PP) polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) at multiple temperatures and concentrations. Under the experimental conditions of this study, recovery- corrected R(s) values for PP PAHs ranged from ???1.0 to 8.0 L/d. These values would be expected to be influenced by significant changes (relative to this study) in water temperature, degree of biofouling, and current velocity- turbulence. Included in this paper is a discussion of the effects of temperature and octanol-water partition coefficient (K(ow)); the impacts of biofouling and hydrodynamics are reported separately. Overall, SPMDs responded proportionally to aqueous PAH concentrations; i.e., SPMD R(s) values and SPMD-water concentration factors were independent of aqueous concentrations. Temperature effects (10, 18, and 26 ??C) on Rs values appeared to be complex but were relatively small.The use of lipid-containing semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) is becoming commonplace, but very little sampling rate data are available for the estimation of ambient contaminant concentrations from analyte levels in exposed SPMDs. We determined the aqueous sampling rates (Rss; expressed as effective volumes of water extracted daily) of the standard (commercially available design) 1-g triolein SPMD for 15 of the priority pollutant (PP) polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) at multiple temperatures and concentrations. Under the experimental conditions of this study, recovery-corrected Rs values for PP PAHs ranged from ???1.0 to 8.0 L/d. These values would be expected to be influenced by significant changes (relative to this study) in water temperature, degree of biofouling, and current velocity-turbulence. Included in this paper is a discussion of the effects of temperature and octanol-water partition coefficient (KOW); the impacts of biofouling and hydrodynamics are reported separately. Overall, SPMDs responded proportionally to aqueous PAH concentrations; i.e., SPMD RS values and SPMD-water concentration factors were independent of aqueous concentrations. Temperature effects (10, 18, and 26??C) on RS values appeared to be complex but were relatively small.

Protein restriction does not affect body temperature pattern in female mice.

PubMed

Kato, Goro A; Shichijo, Hiroki; Takahashi, Toshihiro; Shinohara, Akio; Morita, Tetsuo; Koshimoto, Chihiro

2017-10-30

Daily torpor is a physiological adaptation in mammals and birds characterized by a controlled reduction of metabolic rate and body temperature during the resting phase of circadian rhythms. In laboratory mice, daily torpor is induced by dietary caloric restriction. However, it is not known which nutrients are related to daily torpor expression. To determine whether dietary protein is a key factor in inducing daily torpor in mice, we fed mice a protein-restricted (PR) diet that included only one-quarter of the amount of protein but the same caloric level as a control (C) diet. We assigned six non-pregnant female ICR mice to each group and recorded their body weights and core body temperatures for 4 weeks. Body weights in the C group increased, but those in the PR group remained steady or decreased. Mice in both groups did not show daily torpor, but most mice in a food-restricted group (n=6) supplied with 80% of the calories given to the C group exhibited decreased body weights and frequently displayed daily torpor. This suggests that protein restriction is not a trigger of daily torpor; torpid animals can conserve their internal energy, but torpor may not play a significant role in conserving internal protein. Thus, opportunistic daily torpor in mice may function in energy conservation rather than protein saving.

Wildfire effects on water temperature and selection of breeding sites by the boreal toad (Bufo boreas) in seasonal wetlands

Treesearch

Blake R. Hossack; Paul Stephen Corn

2008-01-01

Disturbances can significantly affect the thermal regime and community structure of wetlands. We investigated the effect of a wildfire on water temperature of seasonal, montane wetlands after documenting the colonization of recently burned wetlands by the Boreal Toad (Bufo boreas boreas). We compared the daily mean temperature, daily maximum...

WHATCH’EM: A Weather-Driven Energy Balance Model for Determining Water Height and Temperature in Container Habitats for Aedes aegypti

PubMed Central

Steinhoff, Daniel F.; Monaghan, Andrew J.; Eisen, Lars; Barlage, Michael J.; Hopson, Thomas M.; Tarakidzwa, Isaac; Ortiz-Rosario, Karielys; Lozano-Fuentes, Saul; Hayden, Mary H.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Welsh Rodríguez, Carlos M.

2017-01-01

The mosquito virus vector Aedes (Ae.) aegypti exploits a wide range of containers as sites for egg laying and development of the immature life stages, yet the approaches for modeling meteorologically sensitive container water dynamics have been limited. This study introduces the Water Height and Temperature in Container Habitats Energy Model (WHATCH’EM), a state-of-the-science, physically based energy balance model of water height and temperature in containers that may serve as development sites for mosquitoes. The authors employ WHATCH’EM to model container water dynamics in three cities along a climatic gradient in México ranging from sea level, where Ae. aegypti is highly abundant, to ~2100 m, where Ae. aegypti is rarely found. When compared with measurements from a 1-month field experiment in two of these cities during summer 2013, WHATCH’EM realistically simulates the daily mean and range of water temperature for a variety of containers. To examine container dynamics for an entire season, WHATCH’EM is also driven with field-derived meteorological data from May to September 2011 and evaluated for three commonly encountered container types. WHATCH’EM simulates the highly nonlinear manner in which air temperature, humidity, rainfall, clouds, and container characteristics (shape, size, and color) determine water temperature and height. Sunlight exposure, modulated by clouds and shading from nearby objects, plays a first-order role. In general, simulated water temperatures are higher for containers that are larger, darker, and receive more sunlight. WHATCH’EM simulations will be helpful in understanding the limiting meteorological and container-related factors for proliferation of Ae. aegypti and may be useful for informing weather-driven early warning systems for viruses transmitted by Ae. aegypti. PMID:29123363

Spatio-temporal prediction of daily temperatures using time-series of MODIS LST images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hengl, Tomislav; Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.; Perčec Tadić, Melita; Pebesma, Edzer J.

2012-01-01

A computational framework to generate daily temperature maps using time-series of publicly available MODIS MOD11A2 product Land Surface Temperature (LST) images (1 km resolution; 8-day composites) is illustrated using temperature measurements from the national network of meteorological stations (159) in Croatia. The input data set contains 57,282 ground measurements of daily temperature for the year 2008. Temperature was modeled as a function of latitude, longitude, distance from the sea, elevation, time, insolation, and the MODIS LST images. The original rasters were first converted to principal components to reduce noise and filter missing pixels in the LST images. The residual were next analyzed for spatio-temporal auto-correlation; sum-metric separable variograms were fitted to account for zonal and geometric space-time anisotropy. The final predictions were generated for time-slices of a 3D space-time cube, constructed in the R environment for statistical computing. The results show that the space-time regression model can explain a significant part of the variation in station-data (84%). MODIS LST 8-day (cloud-free) images are unbiased estimator of the daily temperature, but with relatively low precision (±4.1°C); however their added value is that they systematically improve detection of local changes in land surface temperature due to local meteorological conditions and/or active heat sources (urban areas, land cover classes). The results of 10-fold cross-validation show that use of spatio-temporal regression-kriging and incorporation of time-series of remote sensing images leads to significantly more accurate maps of temperature than if plain spatial techniques were used. The average (global) accuracy of mapping temperature was ±2.4°C. The regression-kriging explained 91% of variability in daily temperatures, compared to 44% for ordinary kriging. Further software advancement—interactive space-time variogram exploration and automated retrieval, resampling and filtering of MODIS images—are anticipated.

Heat Wave and Mortality: A Multicountry, Multicommunity Study

PubMed Central

Gasparrini, Antonio; Armstrong, Ben G.; Tawatsupa, Benjawan; Tobias, Aurelio; Lavigne, Eric; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Pan, Xiaochuan; Kim, Ho; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Wu, Chang-Fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel D.; Bell, Michelle L.; Scortichini, Matteo; Michelozzi, Paola; Punnasiri, Kornwipa; Li, Shanshan; Tian, Linwei; Garcia, Samuel David Osorio; Seposo, Xerxes; Overcenco, Ala; Zeka, Ariana; Goodman, Patrick; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Dung, Do Van; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Williams, Gail; Tong, Shilu

2017-01-01

Background: Few studies have examined variation in the associations between heat waves and mortality in an international context. Objectives: We aimed to systematically examine the impacts of heat waves on mortality with lag effects internationally. Methods: We collected daily data of temperature and mortality from 400 communities in 18 countries/regions and defined 12 types of heat waves by combining community-specific daily mean temperature ≥90th, 92.5th, 95th, and 97.5th percentiles of temperature with duration ≥2, 3, and 4 d. We used time-series analyses to estimate the community-specific heat wave–mortality relation over lags of 0–10 d. Then, we applied meta-analysis to pool heat wave effects at the country level for cumulative and lag effects for each type of heat wave definition. Results: Heat waves of all definitions had significant cumulative associations with mortality in all countries, but varied by community. The higher the temperature threshold used to define heat waves, the higher heat wave associations on mortality. However, heat wave duration did not modify the impacts. The association between heat waves and mortality appeared acutely and lasted for 3 and 4 d. Heat waves had higher associations with mortality in moderate cold and moderate hot areas than cold and hot areas. There were no added effects of heat waves on mortality in all countries/regions, except for Brazil, Moldova, and Taiwan. Heat waves defined by daily mean and maximum temperatures produced similar heat wave–mortality associations, but not daily minimum temperature. Conclusions: Results indicate that high temperatures create a substantial health burden, and effects of high temperatures over consecutive days are similar to what would be experienced if high temperature days occurred independently. People living in moderate cold and moderate hot areas are more sensitive to heat waves than those living in cold and hot areas. Daily mean and maximum temperatures had similar ability to define heat waves rather than minimum temperature. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1026 PMID:28886602

[Risk of deaths from cardiovascular diseases in Polish urban population associated with changes in maximal daily temperature].

PubMed

Rabczenko, Daniel; Wojtyniak, Bogdan; Kuchcik, Magdalena; Seroka, Wojciech

2009-01-01

The paper presents results of analysis of short-term effect of changes in maximal daily temperature on daily mortality from cardiovascular diseases in warm season in years 1999-2006. Analysis was carried out in six large Polish cities--Katowice, Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, Warszawa and Wrocław. Generalized additive models were used in the analysis. Potential confounding factors--long term changes of mortality, day of week and other meteorological factors (atmospheric pressure, humidity, mean wind speed) were taken into account during model building process. Analysis was done for two age groups--0-69 and 70 years and older. Significant, positive association between daily maximal temperature and risk of death from cardiovascular diseases was found only in older age group.

Effects of constant and cyclical thermal regimes on growth and feeding of juvenile cutthroat trout of variable sizes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meeuwig, M.H.; Dunham, J.B.; Hayes, J.P.; Vinyard, G.L.

2004-01-01

The effects of constant (12, 18, and 24 A?C) and cyclical (daily variation of 15a??21 and 12a??24 A?C) thermal regimes on the growth and feeding of Lahontan cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki henshawi) of variable sizes were examined. Higher constant temperatures (i.e., 24 A?C) and more variable daily temperatures (i.e., 12a??24 A?C daily cycle) negatively affected growth rates. As fish mass increased (from 0.24 to 15.52 g) the effects of different thermal regimes on mass growth became more pronounced. Following 14 days exposure to the thermal regimes, feeding rates of individual fish were assessed during acute exposure (40 min) to test temperatures of 12, 18, and 24 A?C. Feeding rate was depressed during acute exposure to 24 A?C, but was not significantly affected by the preceding thermal regime. Our results indicate that even brief daily exposure to higher temperatures (e.g., 24 A?C) can have considerable sublethal effects on cutthroat trout, and that fish size should be considered when examining the effects of temperature.

Fluctuating temperature leads to evolution of thermal generalism and preadaptation to novel environments.

PubMed

Ketola, Tarmo; Mikonranta, Lauri; Zhang, Ji; Saarinen, Kati; Ormälä, Anni-Maria; Friman, Ville-Petri; Mappes, Johanna; Laakso, Jouni

2013-10-01

Environmental fluctuations can select for generalism, which is also hypothesized to increase organisms' ability to invade novel environments. Here, we show that across a range of temperatures, opportunistic bacterial pathogen Serratia marcescens that evolved in fluctuating temperature (daily variation between 24°C and 38°C, mean 31°C) outperforms the strains that evolved in constant temperature (31°C). The growth advantage was also evident in novel environments in the presence of parasitic viruses and predatory protozoans, but less clear in the presence of stressful chemicals. Adaptation to fluctuating temperature also led to reduced virulence in Drosophila melanogaster host, which suggests that generalism can still be costly in terms of reduced fitness in other ecological contexts. While supporting the hypothesis that evolution of generalism is coupled with tolerance to several novel environments, our results also suggest that thermal fluctuations driven by the climate change could affect both species' invasiveness and virulence. © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Relationship between season of birth, temperature exposure, and later life wellbeing.

PubMed

Isen, Adam; Rossin-Slater, Maya; Walker, Reed

2017-12-19

We study how exposure to extreme temperatures in early periods of child development is related to adult economic outcomes measured 30 y later. Our analysis uses administrative earnings records for over 12 million individuals born in the United States between 1969 and 1977, linked to fine-scale, daily weather data and location and date of birth. We calculate the length of time each individual is exposed to different temperatures in utero and in early childhood, and we estimate flexible regression models that allow for nonlinearities in the relationship between temperature and long-run outcomes. We find that an extra day with mean temperatures above 32 °C in utero and in the first year after birth is associated with a 0.1% reduction in adult annual earnings at age 30. Temperature sensitivity is evident in multiple periods of early development, ranging from the first trimester of gestation to age 6-12 mo. We observe that household air-conditioning adoption, which increased dramatically over the time period studied, mitigates nearly all of the estimated temperature sensitivity.

Thermal effects of dams in the Willamette River basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rounds, Stewart A.

2010-01-01

Methods were developed to assess the effects of dams on streamflow and water temperature in the Willamette River and its major tributaries. These methods were used to estimate the flows and temperatures that would occur at 14 dam sites in the absence of upstream dams, and river models were applied to simulate downstream flows and temperatures under a no-dams scenario. The dams selected for this study include 13 dams built and operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) as part of the Willamette Project, and 1 dam on the Clackamas River owned and operated by Portland General Electric (PGE). Streamflows in the absence of upstream dams for 2001-02 were estimated for USACE sites on the basis of measured releases, changes in reservoir storage, a correction for evaporative losses, and an accounting of flow effects from upstream dams. For the PGE dam, no-project streamflows were derived from a previous modeling effort that was part of a dam-relicensing process. Without-dam streamflows were characterized by higher peak flows in winter and spring and much lower flows in late summer, as compared to with-dam measured flows. Without-dam water temperatures were estimated from measured temperatures upstream of the reservoirs (the USACE sites) or derived from no-project model results (the PGE site). When using upstream data to estimate without-dam temperatures at dam sites, a typical downstream warming rate based on historical data and downstream river models was applied over the distance from the measurement point to the dam site, but only for conditions when the temperature data indicated that warming might be expected. Regressions with measured temperatures from nearby or similar sites were used to extend the without-dam temperature estimates to the entire 2001-02 time period. Without-dam temperature estimates were characterized by a more natural seasonal pattern, with a maximum in July or August, in contrast to the measured patterns at many of the tall dam sites where the annual maximum temperature typically occurred in September or October. Without-dam temperatures also tended to have more daily variation than with-dam temperatures. Examination of the without-dam temperature estimates indicated that dam sites could be grouped according to the amount of streamflow derived from high-elevation, spring-fed, and snowmelt-driven areas high in the Cascade Mountains (Cougar, Big Cliff/Detroit, River Mill, and Hills Creek Dams: Group A), as opposed to flow primarily derived from lower-elevation rainfall-driven drainages (Group B). Annual maximum temperatures for Group A ranged from 15 to 20 degree(s)C, expressed as the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADM), whereas annual maximum 7dADM temperatures for Group B ranged from 21 to 25 degrees C. Because summertime stream temperature is at least somewhat dependent on the upstream water source, it was important when estimating without-dam temperatures to use correlations to sites with similar upstream characteristics. For that reason, it also is important to maintain long-term, year-round temperature measurement stations at representative sites in each of the Willamette River basin's physiographic regions. Streamflow and temperature estimates downstream of the major dam sites and throughout the Willamette River were generated using existing CE-QUAL-W2 flow and temperature models. These models, originally developed for the Willamette River water-temperature Total Maximum Daily Load process, required only a few modifications to allow them to run under the greatly reduced without-dam flow conditions. Model scenarios both with and without upstream dams were run. Results showed that Willamette River streamflow without upstream dams was reduced to levels much closer to historical pre-dam conditions, with annual minimum streamflows approximately one-half or less of dam-augmented levels. Thermal effects of the dams varied according to the time of year, from cooling in mid-summer to warm

Optimizing environmental conditions for mass application of mechano-dwarfing stimuli to Arabidopsis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Montgomery, Jill A.; Bressan, Ray A.; Mitchell, Cary A.

2004-01-01

Obtaining uniform mechano-dwarfing of Arabidopsis thaliana (L.) Heynh. seedlings within dense plantings is problematic. Alternative forms of mechano-stimulation were applied to seedlings in effort to obtain uniform growth reduction compared with undisturbed controls in both greenhouse and controlled growth environments. Arabidopsis grown under low photosynthetic photon flux (PPF) artificial light grew upright with limited leaf expansion, which enhanced mechano-responsiveness compared to that of rosette-growing plants under filtered sunlight or high PPF artificial light. Hypocotyls of seedlings grown at PPFs > 60 micromoles m-2 s-1 elongated less and had 6% less sensitivity to mechanical stress than seedlings grown at PPFs < 60 micromoles m-2 s-1. Fluorescent lamps alone (F) or fluorescent plus incandescent (F+I) lamps were compared for seedling responses to mechanical stress. Under F lighting, hypocotyl elongation was reduced 25% to 40% by twice-daily brush or plate treatments, and brushed seedlings exhibited more growth reduction than did plate treatments. Seedlings grown under F+I lamps exhibited similar stress-induced growth reduction compared to seedlings grown under F only, but stressed F+I seedlings lodged to a greater extent due to excessive hypocotyl elongation. Temperature-response studies using standardized F-only lighting indicated increased hypocotyl elongation but decreased leaf expansion, and decreased mechano-responsivity to brushing over the temperature range from 20 to 28 degrees C. Daylength studies indicated similar degrees of mechano-inhibition of hypocotyl elongation over the daylength range of 12, 16, 20, and 24 hours, whereas fresh weight of stressed seedling shoots declined compared to controls. A combination of environmental growth parameters that give repeatable, visual mechanical dwarfing of Arabidopsis include low-PPF fluorescent lighting from 55 to 60 micromoles m-2 s-1, ambient temperatures from 22 to 25 degrees C, and twice-daily brush treatments.

Runoff simulation in the Ferghana Valley (Central Asia) using conceptual hydrological HBV-light model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radchenko, Iuliia; Breuer, Lutz; Forkutsa, Irina; Frede, Hans-Georg

2013-04-01

Glaciers and permafrost on the ranges of the Tien Shan mountain system are primary sources of water in the Ferghana Valley. The water artery of the valley is the Syr Darya River that is formed by confluence of the Naryn and Kara Darya rivers, which originate from the mountain glaciers of the Ak-Shyrak and the Ferghana ranges accordingly. The Ferghana Valley is densely populated and main activity of population is agriculture that heavily depends on irrigation especially in such arid region. The runoff reduction is projected in future due to global temperature rise and glacier shrinkage as a consequence. Therefore, it is essential to study climate change impact on water resources in the area both for ecological and economic aspects. The evaluation of comparative contribution of small upper catchments (n=24) with precipitation predominance in discharge and the large Naryn and Karadarya River basins, which are fed by glacial melt water, to the Fergana Valley water balance under current and future climatic conditions is general aim of the study. Appropriate understanding of the hydrological cycle under current climatic conditions is significant for prognosis of water resource availability in the future. Thus, conceptual hydrological HBV-light model was used for analysing of the water balance of the small upper catchments that surround the Ferghana Valley. Three trial catchments (the Kugart River basin, 1010 km²; the Kurshab River basin, 2010 km2; the Akbura River basin, 2260 km²) with relatively good temporal quality data were chosen to setup the model. Due to limitation of daily temperature data the MODAWEC weather generator, which converts monthly temperature data into daily based on correlation with rainfall, was tested and applied for the HBV-light model.

The circadian body temperature rhythm in the elderly: effect of single daily melatonin dosing.

PubMed

Gubin, D G; Gubin, G D; Waterhouse, J; Weinert, D

2006-01-01

The present study is part of a more extensive investigation dedicated to the study and treatment of age-dependent changes/disturbances in the circadian system in humans. It was performed in the Tyumen Elderly Veteran House and included 97 subjects of both genders, ranging from 63 to 91 yrs of age. They lived a self-chosen sleep-wake regimen to suit their personal convenience. The experiment lasted 3 wks. After 1 control week, part of the group (n=63) received 1.5 mg melatonin (Melaxen) daily at 22:30 h for 2 wks. The other 34 subjects were given placebo. Axillary temperature was measured using calibrated mercury thermometers at 03:00, 08:00, 11:00, 14:00, 17:00, and 23:00 h each of the first and third week. Specially trained personnel took the measurements, avoiding disturbing the sleep of the subjects. To evaluate age-dependent changes, data obtained under similar conditions on 58 young adults (both genders, 17 to 39 yrs of age) were used. Rhythm characteristics were estimated by means of cosinor analyses, and intra- and inter-individual variability by analysis of variance (ANOVA). In both age groups, the body temperature underwent daily changes. The MESOR (36.38+/-0.19 degrees C vs. 36.17+/-0.21 degrees C) and circadian amplitude (0.33+/-0.01 degrees C vs. 0.26+/-0.01 degrees C) were slightly decreased in the elderly compared to the young adult subjects (p<0.001). The mean circadian acrophase was similar in both age groups (17.19+/-1.66 vs. 16.93+/-3.08 h). However, the inter-individual differences were higher in the older group, with individual values varying between 10:00 and 23:00 h. It was mainly this phase variability that caused a decrease in the inter-daily rhythm stability and lower group amplitude. With melatonin treatment, the MESOR was lower by 0.1 degrees C and the amplitude increased to 0.34+/-0.01 degrees C, a similar value to that found in young adults. This was probably due to the increase of the inter-daily rhythm stability. The mean acrophase did not change (16.93 vs. 16.75 h), although the inter-individual variability decreased considerably. The corresponding standard deviations (SD) of the group acrophases were 3.08 and 1.51 h (p<0.01). A highly significant correlation between the acrophase before treatment and the phase change under melatonin treatment indicates that this is due to a synchronizing effect of melatonin. Apart from the difference in MESOR, the body temperature rhythm in the elderly subjects undergoing melatonin treatment was not significantly different from that of young adults. The data clearly show that age-dependent changes mainly concern rhythm stability and synchronization with the 24 h day. A single daily melatonin dose stabilizes/synchronizes the body temperature rhythm, most probably via hypothermic and sleep-improving effects.

Effect of heat waves on morbidity and mortality due to Parkinson's disease in Madrid: A time-series analysis.

PubMed

Linares, Cristina; Martinez-Martin, Pablo; Rodríguez-Blázquez, Carmen; Forjaz, Maria João; Carmona, Rocío; Díaz, Julio

2016-01-01

Parkinson's disease (PD) is one of the factors which are associated with a higher risk of mortality during heat waves. The use of certain neuroleptic medications to control some of this disease's complications would appear to be related to an increase in heat-related mortality. To analyse the relationship and quantify the short-term effect of high temperatures during heat wave episodes in Madrid on daily mortality and PD-related hospital admissions. We used an ecological time-series study and fit Poisson regression models. We analysed the daily number of deaths due to PD and the number of daily PD-related emergency hospital admissions in the city of Madrid, using maximum daily temperature (°C) as the main environmental variable and chemical air pollution as covariates. We controlled for trend, seasonalities, and the autoregressive nature of the series. There was a maximum daily temperature of 30°C at which PD-related admissions were at a minimum. Similarly, a temperature of 34°C coincides with an increase in the number of admissions. For PD-related admissions, the Relative Risk (RR) for every increase of 1°C above the threshold temperature was 1.13 IC95%:(1.03-1.23) at lags 1 and 5; and for daily PD-related mortality, the RR was 1.14 IC95%:(1.01-1.28) at lag 3. Our results indicate that suffering from PD is a risk factor that contributes to the excess morbidity and mortality associated with high temperatures, and is relevant from the standpoint of public health prevention plans. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying Observed Temperature Extremes in the Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sura, P.; Stefanova, L. B.; Griffin, M.; Worsnop, R.

2011-12-01

There is broad consensus that the most hazardous effects of climate change are related to a potential increase (in frequency and/or intensity) of extreme weather and climate events. In particular, the statistics of regional daily temperature extremes are of practical interest for the agricultural community and energy suppliers. This is notably true for the Southeastern United States where winter hard freezes are a relatively rare and potentially catastrophic event. Here we use a long record of quality-controlled observations collected from 272 National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative Observing Network (COOP) stations throughout Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and South and North Carolina to provide a detailed climatology of temperature extremes in the Southeastern United States. We employ two complementary approaches. First, we analyze the effect of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the non-Gaussian (i.e. higher order) statistics of wintertime daily minimum and maximum temperatures. We find a significant and spatially varying impact of ENSO and AO on the non-Gaussian statistics of daily maximum and minimum temperatures throughout the domain. Second, the extremes of the temperature distributions are studied by calculating the 1st and 99th percentiles, and then analyzing the number of days with record low/high temperatures per season. This analysis of daily temperature extremes reveals oscillating, multi-decadal patterns with spatially varying centers of action.

Non-linear effects of mean temperature and relative humidity on dengue incidence in Guangzhou, China.

PubMed

Wu, Xiaocheng; Lang, Lingling; Ma, Wenjun; Song, Tie; Kang, Min; He, Jianfeng; Zhang, Yonghui; Lu, Liang; Lin, Hualiang; Ling, Li

2018-07-01

Dengue fever is an important infectious disease in Guangzhou, China; previous studies on the effects of weather factors on the incidence of dengue fever did not consider the linearity of the associations. This study evaluated the effects of daily mean temperature, relative humidity and rainfall on the incidence of dengue fever. A generalized additive model with splines smoothing function was performed to examine the effects of daily mean, minimum and maximum temperatures, relative humidity and rainfall on incidence of dengue fever during 2006-2014. Our analysis detected a non-linear effect of mean, minimum and maximum temperatures and relative humidity on dengue fever with the thresholds at 28°C, 23°C and 32°C for daily mean, minimum and maximum temperatures, 76% for relative humidity, respectively. Below the thresholds, there was a significant positive effect, the excess risk in dengue fever for each 1°C in the mean temperature at lag7-14days was 10.21%, (95% CI: 6.62% to 13.92%), 7.10% (95% CI: 4.99%, 9.26%) for 1°C increase in daily minimum temperature in lag 11days, and 2.27% (95% CI: 0.84%, 3.72%) for 1°C increase in daily maximum temperature in lag 10days; and each 1% increase in relative humidity of lag7-14days was associated with 1.95% (95% CI: 1.21% to 2.69%) in risk of dengue fever. Future prevention and control measures and epidemiology studies on dengue fever should consider these weather factors based on their exposure-response relationship. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Associations between weather conditions during the first 45 days after feedlot arrival and daily respiratory disease risks in autumn-placed feeder cattle in the United States.

PubMed

Cernicchiaro, N; Renter, D G; White, B J; Babcock, A H; Fox, J T

2012-04-01

Data on associations between weather conditions and bovine respiratory disease (BRD) morbidity in autumn-placed feedlot cattle are sparse. The goal of our study was to quantify how different weather variables during corresponding lag periods (considering up to 7 d before the day of disease measure) were associated with daily BRD incidence during the first 45 d of the feeding period based on a post hoc analysis of existing feedlot operational data. Our study population included 1,904 cohorts of feeder cattle (representing 288,388 total cattle) that arrived to 9 US commercial feedlots during September to November in 2005 to 2007. There were 24,947 total cases of initial respiratory disease (animals diagnosed by the feedlots with BRD and subsequently treated with an antimicrobial). The mean number of BRD cases during the study period (the first 45 d after arrival) was 0.3 cases per day per cohort (range = 0 to 53.0), and cumulative BRD incidence risks ranged from 0 to 36% within cattle cohorts. Data were analyzed with a multivariable mixed-effects binomial regression model. Results indicate that several weather factors (maximum wind speed, mean wind chill temperature, and temperature change in different lag periods) were significantly (P < 0.05) associated with increased daily BRD incidence, but their effects depended on several cattle demographic factors (month of arrival, BRD risk code, BW class, and cohort size). In addition, month and year of arrival, sex of the cohort, days on feed, mean BW of the cohort at entry, predicted BRD risk designation of the cohort (high or low risk), cohort size, and the interaction between BRD risk code and arrival year were significantly (P < 0.05) associated with daily BRD incidence. Our results demonstrate that weather conditions are significantly associated with BRD risk in populations of feedlot cattle. Defining these conditions for specific cattle populations may enable cattle health managers to predict and potentially manage these effects more effectively; further, estimates of effects may contribute to the development of quantitative predictive models for this important disease syndrome.

Dissolved oxygen, stream temperature, and fish habitat response to environmental water purchases.

PubMed

Null, Sarah E; Mouzon, Nathaniel R; Elmore, Logan R

2017-07-15

Environmental water purchases are increasingly used for ecological protection. In Nevada's Walker Basin (western USA), environmental water purchases augment streamflow in the Walker River and increase lake elevation of terminal Walker Lake. However, water quality impairments like elevated stream temperatures and low dissolved oxygen concentrations also limit ecosystems and species, including federally-threatened Lahontan cutthroat trout. In this paper, we prioritize water volumes and locations that most enhance water quality for riverine habitat from potential environmental water rights purchases. We monitored and modeled streamflows, stream temperatures, and dissolved oxygen concentrations using River Modeling System, an hourly, physically-based hydrodynamic and water quality model. Modeled environmental water purchases ranged from average daily increases of 0.11-1.41 cubic meters per second (m 3 /s) during 2014 and 2015, two critically dry years. Results suggest that water purchases consistently cooled maximum daily stream temperatures and warmed nightly minimum temperatures. This prevented extremely low dissolved oxygen concentrations below 5.0 mg/L, but increased the duration of moderate conditions between 5.5 and 6.0 mg/L. Small water purchases less than approximately 0.71 m 3 /s per day had little benefit for Walker River habitat. Dissolved oxygen concentrations were affected by upstream environmental conditions, where suitable upstream water quality improved downstream conditions and vice versa. Overall, this study showed that critically dry water years degrade environmental water quality and habitat, but environmental water purchases of at least 0.71 m 3 /s were promising for river restoration. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Mapping evaporative water loss in desert passerines reveals an expanding threat of lethal dehydration.

PubMed

Albright, Thomas P; Mutiibwa, Denis; Gerson, Alexander R; Smith, Eric Krabbe; Talbot, William A; O'Neill, Jacqueline J; McKechnie, Andrew E; Wolf, Blair O

2017-02-28

Extreme high environmental temperatures produce a variety of consequences for wildlife, including mass die-offs. Heat waves are increasing in frequency, intensity, and extent, and are projected to increase further under climate change. However, the spatial and temporal dynamics of die-off risk are poorly understood. Here, we examine the effects of heat waves on evaporative water loss (EWL) and survival in five desert passerine birds across the southwestern United States using a combination of physiological data, mechanistically informed models, and hourly geospatial temperature data. We ask how rates of EWL vary with temperature across species; how frequently, over what areas, and how rapidly lethal dehydration occurs; how EWL and die-off risk vary with body mass; and how die-off risk is affected by climate warming. We find that smaller-bodied passerines are subject to higher rates of mass-specific EWL than larger-bodied counterparts and thus encounter potentially lethal conditions much more frequently, over shorter daily intervals, and over larger geographic areas. Warming by 4 °C greatly expands the extent, frequency, and intensity of dehydration risk, and introduces new threats for larger passerine birds, particularly those with limited geographic ranges. Our models reveal that increasing air temperatures and heat wave occurrence will potentially have important impacts on the water balance, daily activity, and geographic distribution of arid-zone birds. Impacts may be exacerbated by chronic effects and interactions with other environmental changes. This work underscores the importance of acute risks of high temperatures, particularly for small-bodied species, and suggests conservation of thermal refugia and water sources.

Mapping evaporative water loss in desert passerines reveals an expanding threat of lethal dehydration

PubMed Central

Mutiibwa, Denis; Gerson, Alexander. R.; Smith, Eric Krabbe; Talbot, William A.; O’Neill, Jacqueline J.; McKechnie, Andrew E.; Wolf, Blair O.

2017-01-01

Extreme high environmental temperatures produce a variety of consequences for wildlife, including mass die-offs. Heat waves are increasing in frequency, intensity, and extent, and are projected to increase further under climate change. However, the spatial and temporal dynamics of die-off risk are poorly understood. Here, we examine the effects of heat waves on evaporative water loss (EWL) and survival in five desert passerine birds across the southwestern United States using a combination of physiological data, mechanistically informed models, and hourly geospatial temperature data. We ask how rates of EWL vary with temperature across species; how frequently, over what areas, and how rapidly lethal dehydration occurs; how EWL and die-off risk vary with body mass; and how die-off risk is affected by climate warming. We find that smaller-bodied passerines are subject to higher rates of mass-specific EWL than larger-bodied counterparts and thus encounter potentially lethal conditions much more frequently, over shorter daily intervals, and over larger geographic areas. Warming by 4 °C greatly expands the extent, frequency, and intensity of dehydration risk, and introduces new threats for larger passerine birds, particularly those with limited geographic ranges. Our models reveal that increasing air temperatures and heat wave occurrence will potentially have important impacts on the water balance, daily activity, and geographic distribution of arid-zone birds. Impacts may be exacerbated by chronic effects and interactions with other environmental changes. This work underscores the importance of acute risks of high temperatures, particularly for small-bodied species, and suggests conservation of thermal refugia and water sources. PMID:28193891

When do Indians feel hot? Internet searches indicate seasonality suppresses adaptation to heat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Tanya; Siderius, Christian; Van der Velde, Ype

2018-05-01

In a warming world an increasing number of people are being exposed to heat, making a comfortable thermal environment an important need. This study explores the potential of using Regional Internet Search Frequencies (RISF) for air conditioning devices as an indicator for thermal discomfort (i.e. dissatisfaction with the thermal environment) with the aim to quantify the adaptation potential of individuals living across different climate zones and at the high end of the temperature range, in India, where access to health data is limited. We related RISF for the years 2011–2015 to daily daytime outdoor temperature in 17 states and determined at which temperature RISF for air conditioning starts to peak, i.e. crosses a ‘heat threshold’, in each state. Using the spatial variation in heat thresholds, we explored whether people continuously exposed to higher temperatures show a lower response to heat extremes through adaptation (e.g. physiological, behavioural or psychological). State-level heat thresholds ranged from 25.9 °C in Madhya Pradesh to 31.0 °C in Orissa. Local adaptation was found to occur at state level: the higher the average temperature in a state, the higher the heat threshold; and the higher the intra-annual temperature range (warmest minus coldest month) the lower the heat threshold. These results indicate there is potential within India to adapt to warmer temperatures, but that a large intra-annual temperature variability attenuates this potential to adapt to extreme heat. This winter ‘reset’ mechanism should be taken into account when assessing the impact of global warming, with changes in minimum temperatures being an important factor in addition to the change in maximum temperatures itself. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of local heat thresholds and people’s adaptive capacity, which can support the design of local thermal comfort standards and early heat warning systems.

Impact of daily cooling treatment on skin inflammation in patients with chronic venous disease.

PubMed

Kelechi, Teresa J; Mueller, Martina; King, Dana E; Madisetti, Mohan; Prentice, Margie

2015-05-01

People with chronic venous disease are at high risk for developing venous leg ulcers. Inflammation is posited as a pathological factor for this chronic condition as evidenced by persistently elevated skin temperature. As part of a larger trial to test the effects of a cooling regimen on leg ulcer prevention, the objective of this preliminary study was to evaluate the first 30 days of intense daily cooling. Compared to a placebo control cuff, a gel cuff applied to the most severely affected lower leg skin for 30 min daily showed no statistically significant differences between temperatures taken in the home at baseline compared to those measured at the 1 month follow up visit. There were also no differences in temperatures noted between the two groups, although the temperatures in the treatment group were lower 30 min after treatment, an indication of adherence. There was no discernable decrease or increase in temperature at a given time point during the 30 day treatment period compared to the control group. It may be better to have patients monitor skin temperature on a daily basis and then apply the cuff as necessary, rather than requiring daily cooling based on baseline measurement. This "prn" approach may provide a sufficient cooling milieu to prevent escalation of inflammation and thwart ulcer occurrence or recurrence. Clinical trials registration #NCT01509599. Copyright © 2015 Tissue Viability Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mathematical Modeling for Evaluation of Field Water Supply Alternatives (Arid and Semi-Arid Regions).

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-01-01

switch box would normally be required to operate the diatomite filter pumps. However, in hot arid regions where ambient water temperatures are re- latively...9 Tactical Water Distribution Systems...................... 9 Temperature of Waters in the Desert ..................... 10...concentration of FAC when loaded; daily FAC; daily water temperature in each tank; weekly pH determination; results of all chemical laboratory

Daily changes in VPD during leaf development in high air humidity increase the stomatal responsiveness to darkness and dry air.

PubMed

Arve, Louise E; Kruse, Ole Mathis Opstad; Tanino, Karen K; Olsen, Jorunn E; Futsæther, Cecilia; Torre, Sissel

2017-04-01

Previous studies have shown that plants developed under high relative air humidity (RH>85%) develop malfunctioning stomata and therefor have increased transpiration and reduced desiccation tolerance when transferred to lower RH conditions and darkness. In this study, plants developed at high RH were exposed to daily VPD fluctuations created by changes in temperature and/or RH to evaluate the potential improvements in stomatal functioning. Daily periods with an 11°C temperature increase and consequently a VPD increase (vpd: 0.36-2.37KPa) reduced the stomatal apertures and improved the stomatal functionality and desiccation tolerance of the rosette plant Arabidopsis thaliana. A similar experiment was performed with only a 4°C temperature increase and/or a RH decrease on tomato. The results showed that a daily change in VPD (vpd: 0.36-1.43KPa) also resulted in improved stomatal responsiveness and decreased water usage during growth. In tomato, the most effective treatment to increase the stomatal responsiveness to darkness as a signal for closure was daily changes in RH without a temperature increase. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Interannual variations of middle atmospheric temperature as measured by the JPL lidar at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (19.5°N, 155.6°W)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tao; Leblanc, Thierry; McDermid, I. Stuart

2008-07-01

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory Rayleigh-Raman lidar at Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO), Hawaii (19.5°N, 155.6°W) has been measuring atmospheric temperature vertical profiles routinely since 1993. Linear regression analysis was applied to the 13.5-yearlong (January 1994 to June 2007) deseasonalized monthly mean lidar temperature time series for each 1-km altitude bin between 15 and 85 km. The regression analysis included components representing the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the 11-year solar cycle. Where overlapping was possible, the results were compared to those obtained from the twice-daily National Weather Service (NWS) radiosonde profiles at Hilo (5-30 km) located 60 km east-north-east of the lidar site, and the four-times-daily temperature analysis of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). The analysis revealed the dominance of the QBO (1-3 K) in the stratosphere and mesosphere, and a strong winter signature of ENSO in the troposphere and lowermost stratosphere (˜1.5 K/MEI). Additionally, and for the first time, a statistically significant signature of ENSO was observed in the mesosphere, consistent with the findings of recent model simulations. The annual mean response to the solar cycle shows two statistically significant maxima of ˜1.3 K/100 F10.7 units at 35 and 55 km. The temperature responses to QBO, ENSO, and solar cycle are all maximized in winter. Comparisons with the global ECMWF temperature analysis clearly showed that the middle atmosphere above MLO is under a subtropical/extratropical regime, i.e., generally out-of-phase with that in the equatorial regions, and synchronized to the northern hemisphere winter/spring.

Temporal Trends and Temperature-Related Incidence of Electrical Storm: The TEMPEST Study (Temperature-Related Incidence of Electrical Storm).

PubMed

Guerra, Federico; Bonelli, Paolo; Flori, Marco; Cipolletta, Laura; Carbucicchio, Corrado; Izquierdo, Maite; Kozluk, Edward; Shivkumar, Kalyanam; Vaseghi, Marmar; Patani, Francesca; Cupido, Claudio; Pala, Salvatore; Ruiz-Granell, Ricardo; Ferrero, Angel; Tondo, Claudio; Capucci, Alessandro

2017-03-01

The occurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias seems to follow circadian, daily, and seasonal distributions. Our aim is to identify potential temporal patterns of electrical storm (ES), in which a cluster of ventricular tachycardias or ventricular fibrillation, negatively affects short- and long-term survival. The TEMPEST study (Circannual Pattern and Temperature-Related Incidence of Electrical Storm) is a patient-level, pooled analysis of previously published data sets. Study selection criteria included diagnosis of ES, absence of acute coronary syndrome as the arrhythmic trigger, and ≥10 patients included. At the end of the selection and collection processes, 5 centers had the data set from their article pooled into the present registry. Temperature data and sunrise and sunset hours were retrieved from Weather Underground, the largest weather database available online. Total sample included 246 patients presenting with ES (221 men; age: 65±9 years). Each ES episode included a median of 7 ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation episodes. Fifty-nine percent of patients experienced ES during daytime hours ( P <0.001). The prevalence of ES was significantly higher during workdays, with Saturdays and Sundays registering the lowest rates of ES (10.4% and 7.2%, respectively, versus 16.5% daily mean from Monday to Friday; P <0.001). ES occurrence was significantly associated with increased monthly temperature range when compared with the month before ( P =0.003). ES incidence is not homogenous over time but seems to have a clustered pattern, with a higher incidence during daytime hours and working days. ES is associated with an increase in monthly temperature variation. https://www.crd.york.ac.uk. Unique identifier: CRD42013003744. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Inter-Annual Variability in Stream Water Temperature, Microclimate and Heat Exchanges: a Comparison of Forest and Moorland Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, G.; Hannah, D. M.; Malcolm, I.; Sadler, J. P.

2012-12-01

Riparian forest is recognised as important for moderating stream temperature variability and has the potential to mitigate thermal extremes in a changing climate. Previous research on the heat exchanges controlling water column temperature has often been short-term or seasonally-constrained, with the few multi-year studies limited to a maximum of two years. This study advances previous work by providing a longer-term perspective which allows assessment of inter-annual variability in stream temperature, microclimate and heat exchange dynamics between a semi-natural woodland and a moorland (no trees) reach of the Girnock Burn, a tributary of the Scottish Dee. Automatic weather stations collected 15-minute data over seven consecutive years, which to our knowledge is a unique data set in providing the longest term perspective to date on stream temperature, microclimate and heat exchange processes. Results for spring-summer indicate that the presence of a riparian canopy has a consistent effect between years in reducing the magnitude and variability of mean daily water column temperature and daily net energy totals. Differences in the magnitude and variability in net energy fluxes between the study reaches were driven primarily by fluctuations in net radiation and latent heat fluxes in response to between- and within-year variability in growth of the riparian forest canopy at the forest and prevailing weather conditions at both the forest and moorland. This research provides new insights on the inter-annual variability of stream energy exchanges for moorland and forested reaches under a wide range of climatological and hydrological conditions. The findings therefore provide a more robust process basis for modelling the impact of changes in forest practice and climate change on river thermal dynamics.

Hot Weather Impacts on New York City Restaurant Food Safety Violations and Operations.

PubMed

Dominianni, Christine; Lane, Kathryn; Ahmed, Munerah; Johnson, Sarah; McKELVEY, Wendy; Ito, Kazuhiko

2018-06-06

Previous studies have shown that higher ambient air temperature is associated with increased incidence of gastrointestinal illnesses, possibly as a result of leaving potentially hazardous food in the temperature danger zone for too long. However, little is known about the effect of hot weather on restaurant practices to maintain safe food temperatures. We examined hot weather impacts on restaurant food safety violations and operations in New York City using quantitative and qualitative methods. We used data from 64,661 inspections conducted among 29,614 restaurants during May to September, 2011 to 2015. We used Poisson time-series regression to estimate the cumulative relative risk (CRR) of temperature-related food safety violations across a range of daily maximum temperature (13 to 40°C [56 to 104°F]) over a lag of 0 to 3 days. We present CRRs for an increase in daily maximum temperature from the median (28°C [82°F]) to the 95th percentile (34°C [93°F]) values. Maximum temperature increased the risk of violations for cold food holding above 5°C (41°F) (CRR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.14, 1.25) and insufficient refrigerated or hot holding equipment (CRR, 2.37; 95% CI, 2.02, 2.79). We also conducted focus groups among restaurant owners and managers to aid interpretation of findings and identify challenges or knowledge gaps that prevent hot weather preparedness. Focus group participants cited refrigeration issues as a common problem during hot weather. Participants expressed the need for more guidance on hot weather and power outages to be delivered concisely. Our findings suggest that hotter temperatures may compromise cold and hot food holding, possibly by straining refrigeration or other equipment. The findings have public health implications because holding potentially hazardous foods in the temperature danger zone allows foodborne pathogens to proliferate and increases risk for foodborne illness. Distribution of simple guidelines that can be easily accessed during emergencies could help restaurants respond better.

Modeling the survivability of brucella to exposure of Ultraviolet radiation and temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howe, R.

Accumulated summation of daily Ultra Violet-B (UV-B = 290? to 320 ? ) data? from The USDA Ultraviolet Radiation Monitoring Program show good correlation (R^2 = 77%) with daily temperature data during the five month period from February through June, 1998. Exposure of disease organisms, such as brucella to the effects of accumulated UV-B radiation, can be modeled for a 5 month period from February through June, 1998. Estimates of a lethal dosage for brucell of UV-B in the environment is dependent on minimum/maximum temperature and Solar Zenith Angle for the time period. The accumulated increase in temperature over this period also effects the decomposition of an aborted fetus containing brucella. Decomposition begins at some minimum daily temperature at 27 to 30 degrees C and peaks at 39 to 40C. It is useful to view the summation of temperature as a threshold for other bacteria growth, so that accumulated temperature greater than some value causes decomposition through competition with other bacteria and brucella die from the accumulated effects of UV-B, temperature and organism competition. Results of a study (Cook 1998) to determine survivability of brucellosis in the environment through exposure of aborted bovine fetuses show no one cause can be attributed to death of the disease agent. The combination of daily increase in temperature and accumulated UV-B radiation reveal an inverse correlation to survivability data and can be modeled as an indicator of brucella survivability in the environment in arid regions.

Projected temperature-related deaths in ten large U.S. metropolitan areas under different climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Weinberger, Kate R; Haykin, Leah; Eliot, Melissa N; Schwartz, Joel D; Gasparrini, Antonio; Wellenius, Gregory A

2017-10-01

There is an established U-shaped association between daily temperature and mortality. Temperature changes projected through the end of century are expected to lead to higher rates of heat-related mortality but also lower rates of cold-related mortality, such that the net change in temperature-related mortality will depend on location. We quantified the change in heat-, cold-, and temperature-related mortality rates through the end of the century across 10 large US metropolitan areas. We applied location-specific projections of future temperature from over 40 downscaled climate models to exposure-response functions relating daily temperature and mortality in 10 US metropolitan areas to estimate the change in temperature-related mortality rates in 2045-2055 and 2085-2095 compared to 1992-2002, under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). We further calculated the total number of deaths attributable to temperature in 1997, 2050, and 2090 in each metropolitan area, either assuming constant population or accounting for projected population growth. In each of the 10 metropolitan areas, projected future temperatures were associated with lower rates of cold-related deaths and higher rates of heat-related deaths. Under the higher-emission RCP 8.5 scenario, 8 of the 10 metropolitan areas are projected to experience a net increase in annual temperature-related deaths per million people by 2086-2095, ranging from a net increase of 627 (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 239, 1018) deaths per million in Los Angeles to a net decrease of 59 (95% eCI: -485, 314) deaths per million in Boston. Applying these projected temperature-related mortality rates to projected population size underscores the large public health burden of temperature. Increases in the heat-related death rate are projected to outweigh decreases in the cold-related death rate in 8 out of 10 cities studied under a high emissions scenario. Adhering to a lower greenhouse gas emissions scenario has the potential to substantially reduce future temperature-related mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Two-way effect modifications of air pollution and air temperature on total natural and cardiovascular mortality in eight European urban areas.

PubMed

Chen, Kai; Wolf, Kathrin; Breitner, Susanne; Gasparrini, Antonio; Stafoggia, Massimo; Samoli, Evangelia; Andersen, Zorana Jovanovic; Bero-Bedada, Getahun; Bellander, Tom; Hennig, Frauke; Jacquemin, Bénédicte; Pekkanen, Juha; Hampel, Regina; Cyrys, Josef; Peters, Annette; Schneider, Alexandra

2018-07-01

Although epidemiological studies have reported associations between mortality and both ambient air pollution and air temperature, it remains uncertain whether the mortality effects of air pollution are modified by temperature and vice versa. Moreover, little is known on the interactions between ultrafine particles (diameter ≤ 100 nm, UFP) and temperature. We investigated whether the short-term associations of particle number concentration (PNC in the ultrafine range (≤100 nm) or total PNC ≤ 3000 nm, as a proxy for UFP), particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) and ≤ 10 μm (PM 10 ), and ozone with daily total natural and cardiovascular mortality were modified by air temperature and whether air pollution levels affected the temperature-mortality associations in eight European urban areas during 1999-2013. We first analyzed air temperature-stratified associations between air pollution and total natural (nonaccidental) and cardiovascular mortality as well as air pollution-stratified temperature-mortality associations using city-specific over-dispersed Poisson additive models with a distributed lag nonlinear temperature term in each city. All models were adjusted for long-term and seasonal trend, day of the week, influenza epidemics, and population dynamics due to summer vacation and holidays. City-specific effect estimates were then pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled associations between air pollutants and total and cardiovascular mortality were overall positive and generally stronger at high relatively compared to low air temperatures. For example, on days with high air temperatures (>75th percentile), an increase of 10,000 particles/cm 3 in PNC corresponded to a 2.51% (95% CI: 0.39%, 4.67%) increase in cardiovascular mortality, which was significantly higher than that on days with low air temperatures (<25th percentile) [-0.18% (95% CI: -0.97%, 0.62%)]. On days with high air pollution (>50th percentile), both heat- and cold-related mortality risks increased. Our findings showed that high temperature could modify the effects of air pollution on daily mortality and high air pollution might enhance the air temperature effects. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modification of the degree-day formula for diurnal meltwater generation and refreezing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Žaknić-Ćatović, Ana; Howard, Ken W. F.; Ćatović, Zlatko

2018-02-01

The standard degree-day, temperature-index approach to calculating snowmelt generation and refreezing (the SDD method) is convenient and popularly used but seriously miscalculates the volumes of water that change phase on days when temperatures fluctuate either side of the freezing point. Additionally, the SDD method does not provide any estimate of the duration of daily melting and refreezing events. A modified version of the standard formula is introduced (the MDD method) that overcomes such problems by removing dependence on a single temperature index (the average daily temperature estimated over a 24-h period beginning at midnight) and instead transfers reliance onto daily air temperature extremes (maximum and minimum temperatures) at known times of occurrence. In this way, the modified formula retains the simplicity of the standard approach while targeting those segments of the diurnal air temperature curve that directly relate to periods of melting and freezing. Newly introduced temperature and time degree-day parameters allow the duration of melting and refreezing events to be estimated. The MDD method was evaluated for two sites in the snow-belt region of Canada where the availability of hourly records of daily temperature allowed the required MDD input parameters to be calculated reliably and thus used for comparative purposes. During testing, the MDD input parameters were obtained from daily temperature extremes and their times of occurrence, using two alternative approaches to synthetic air temperature curve generation, one linear, the other trigonometric. Very good agreement was obtained in both cases and confirms the value of the MDD approach. However, there is no significant benefit to be gained by using air temperature approximating functions more complicated than the linear method for supplementing the missing continuous air temperature measurements. Finally, the MDD approach is not seen as a replacement for the regular SDD method, so much as tool that can be applied when the SDD methodology is likely to become unreliable. This is best achieved by using a hybrid SDD-MDD algorithm that invokes the MDD approach only when the necessary conditions arise.

Microclimate and actual evapotranspiration in a humid coastal-plain environment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dennehy, K.F.; McMahon, P.B.

1987-01-01

Continuous hourly measurements of twelve meteorologic variables recorded during 1983 and 1984 were used to examine the microclimate and actual evapotranspiration at a low-level radioactive-waste burial site near Barnwell, South Carolina. The study area is in the Atlantic Coastal Plain of southwestern South Carolina. Monthly, daily, and hourly trends in net radiation, incoming and reflected short-wave radiation, incoming and emitted long-wave radiation, soil-heat flux, dry- and wet-bulb temperatures, soil temperatures, wind direction and speed, and precipitation were used to characterize the microclimate. Average daily air temperatures ranged from -9 to 32?? Celsius during the period of study. Net radiation varied from about -27 to 251 watts m-2 and was dominated by incoming short-wave radiation throughout the year. The peak net radiation during a summer day generally occurred 2-3h before the peak vapor pressure deficit. In the winter, these peaks occurred at about the same time of day. Monthly precipitation varied from 15 to 241 mm. The Bowen ratio method was used to estimate hourly evapotranspiration, which was summed to also give daily and monthly evapotranspiration. Actual evapotranspiration varied from 0.0 to 0.7 mm h-1, 0.8-5 mm d-1, and 20-140 mm month-1 during 1983 and 1984. The maximum rate of evapotranspiration generally occurred at the same time of day as maximum net radiation, suggesting net radiation was the main driving force for evapotranspiration. Precipitation exceeded evapotranspiration during 14 months of the 2yr study period. Late fall, winter, and early spring contained the majority of these months. The maximum excess precipitation was 115 mm in February 1983. ?? 1987.

[Hazard assessment of the impact of high temperature and air pollution on public health in Moscow].

PubMed

Revich, B A; Shaposhnikov, D A; Avaliani, S L; Rubinshtein, K G; Emelina, S V; Shiriaev, M V; Semutnikova, E G; Zakharova, P V; Kislova, O Iu

2015-01-01

In the article there are considered the main problems of assessing public health risks of the combined effects of high temperatures and air pollution with the account taken of the consequences of abnormally hot weather observed in summer 2010 in Moscow and without equals in the history of meteorological measurements in the city. The daily average concentrations of fine suspended particles matter (PM10) in the city during peatland fires from 4 to 9 August are emphasized to be within the range of 431-906 μ/m3, being 7.2-15.1 times the Russian maximum permissible concentration (MPCs) (60 μ/m3). The anomalous heat and high levels of air pollution in this period were shown to cause a significant increase in excess mortality among the population of Moscow. There was established the relative gain in mortality from all natural causes per 10 μg/m3 increase in daily average concentrations of PM10 and ozone, which was respectively: 0.47% (95%; CI: 0.31-0.63) and 0.41% (95%; CI: 0.31-1.13). On the base of the statistical analysis of daily mortality rates, meteorological indices, the concentrations of PM10 and ozone there was developed marking scale for the risk assessment of these indices accordingly to 4 gradings--low (permissible), warning, alert, and a hazard level. There has been substantiated the importance of the introduction of the system for the early alert for hazard weather events and the unified rating scale for the hazard of high air temperatures and high levels of air pollution with PM10 and ozone, which allows to take timely measures for the protection of the public health.

Large Scale Variability of Mid-Tropospheric Carbon Dioxide as Observed by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the NASA EOS Aqua Platform

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pagano, Thomas S.; Olsen, Edward T.

2012-01-01

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a hyperspectral infrared instrument on the EOS Aqua Spacecraft, launched on May 4, 2002. AIRS has 2378 infrared channels ranging from 3.7 microns to 15.4 microns and a 13.5 km footprint. AIRS, in conjunction with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), produces temperature profiles with 1K/km accuracy, water vapor profiles (20%/2km), infrared cloud height and fraction, and trace gas amounts for CO2, CO, SO2, O3 and CH4 in the mid to upper troposphere. AIRS wide swath(cedilla) +/-49.5 deg , enables daily global daily coverage for over 95% of the Earth's surface. AIRS data are used for weather forecasting, validating climate model distribution and processes, and observing long-range transport of greenhouse gases. In this study, we examine the large scale and regional horizontal variability in the AIRS Mid-tropospheric Carbon Dioxide product as a function of season and associate the observed variability with known atmospheric transport processes, and sources and sinks of CO2.

Relevance of a Mobile Internet Platform for Capturing Inter- and Intrasubject Variabilities in Circadian Coordination During Daily Routine: Pilot Study.

PubMed

Komarzynski, Sandra; Huang, Qi; Innominato, Pasquale F; Maurice, Monique; Arbaud, Alexandre; Beau, Jacques; Bouchahda, Mohamed; Ulusakarya, Ayhan; Beaumatin, Nicolas; Breda, Gabrièle; Finkenstädt, Bärbel; Lévi, Francis

2018-06-11

Experimental and epidemiologic studies have shown that circadian clocks' disruption can play an important role in the development of cancer and metabolic diseases. The cellular clocks outside the brain are effectively coordinated by the body temperature rhythm. We hypothesized that concurrent measurements of body temperature and rest-activity rhythms would assess circadian clocks coordination in individual patients, thus enabling the integration of biological rhythms into precision medicine. The objective was to evaluate the circadian clocks' coordination in healthy subjects and patients through simultaneous measurements of rest-activity and body temperature rhythms. Noninvasive real-time measurements of rest-activity and chest temperature rhythms were recorded during the subject's daily life, using a dedicated new mobile electronic health platform (PiCADo). It involved a chest sensor that jointly measured accelerations, 3D orientation, and skin surface temperature every 1-5 min and relayed them out to a mobile gateway via Bluetooth Low Energy. The gateway tele-transmitted all stored data to a server via General Packet Radio Service every 24 hours. The technical capabilities of PiCADo were validated in 55 healthy subjects and 12 cancer patients, whose rhythms were e-monitored during their daily routine for 3-30 days. Spectral analyses enabled to compute rhythm parameters values, with their 90% confidence limits, and their dynamics in each subject. All the individuals displayed a dominant circadian rhythm in activity with maxima occurring from 12:09 to 20:25. This was not the case for the dominant temperature period, which clustered around 24 hours for 51 out of 67 subjects (76%), and around 12 hours for 13 others (19%). Statistically significant sex- and age-related differences in circadian coordination were identified in the noncancerous subjects, based upon the range of variations in temperature rhythm amplitudes, maxima (acrophases), and phase relations with rest-activity. The circadian acrophase of chest temperature was located at night for the majority of people, but it occurred at daytime for 26% (14/55) of the noncancerous people and 33% (4/12) of the cancer patients, thus supporting important intersubject differences in circadian coordination. Sex, age, and cancer significantly impacted the circadian coordination of both rhythms, based on their phase relationships. Complementing rest-activity with chest temperature circadian e-monitoring revealed striking intersubject differences regarding human circadian clocks' coordination and timing during daily routine. To further delineate the clinical importance of such finding, the PiCADo platform is currently applied for both the assessment of health effects resulting from atypical work schedules and the identification of the key determinants of circadian disruption in cancer patients. ©Sandra Komarzynski, Qi Huang, Pasquale F Innominato, Monique Maurice, Alexandre Arbaud, Jacques Beau, Mohamed Bouchahda, Ayhan Ulusakarya, Nicolas Beaumatin, Gabrièle Breda, Bärbel Finkenstädt, Francis Lévi. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 11.06.2018.

Effect of heat stress on body temperature in healthy early postpartum dairy cows.

PubMed

Burfeind, O; Suthar, V S; Heuwieser, W

2012-12-01

Measurement of body temperature is the most common method for an early diagnosis of sick cows in fresh cow protocols currently used on dairy farms. Thresholds for fever range from 39.4 °C to 39.7 °C. Several studies attempted to describe normal temperature ranges for healthy dairy cows in the early puerperium. However, the definition of a healthy cow is variable within these studies. It is challenging to determine normal temperature ranges for healthy cows because body temperature is usually included in the definition. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to identify factors that influence body temperature in healthy dairy cows early postpartum and to determine normal temperature ranges for healthy cows that calved in a moderate (temperature humidity index: 59.8 ± 3.8) and a hot period (temperature humidity index: 74.1 ± 4.4), respectively, excluding body temperature from the definition of the health status. Furthermore, the prevalence of fever was calculated for both periods separately. A subset of 17 (moderate period) and 15 cows (hot period) were used for analysis. To ensure their uterine health only cows with a serum haptoglobin concentration ≤ 1.1 g/L were included in the analysis. Therefore, body temperature could be excluded from the definition. A vaginal temperature logger that measured vaginal temperature every 10 min was inserted from Day 2 to 10 after parturition. Additionally rectal temperature was measured twice daily. Day in milk (2 to 10), period (moderate and hot), and time of day had an effect on rectal and vaginal temperature. The prevalence of fever (≥ 39.5 °C) was 7.4% and 28.1% for rectal temperature in the moderate and hot period, respectively. For vaginal temperature (07.00 to 11.00 h) it was 10% and 33%, respectively, considering the same threshold and period. This study demonstrates that body temperature in the early puerperium is influenced by several factors (day in milk, climate, time of day). Therefore, these factors have to be considered when interpreting body temperature measures to identify sick cows. Furthermore, the prevalence of fever considering different thresholds is higher during hot than moderate periods. However, even in a moderate period healthy cows can exhibit a body temperature that is considered as fever. This fact clearly illustrates that fever alone should not be considered the decision criterion whether a cow is allocated to an antibiotic treatment, although it is the most important one that is objectively measurable. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A new approach used to explore associations of current Ambrosia pollen levels with current and past meteorological elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matyasovszky, István; Makra, László; Csépe, Zoltán; Deák, Áron József; Pál-Molnár, Elemér; Fülöp, Andrea; Tusnády, Gábor

2015-09-01

The paper examines the sensitivity of daily airborne Ambrosia (ragweed) pollen levels of a current pollen season not only on daily values of meteorological variables during this season but also on the past meteorological conditions. The results obtained from a 19-year data set including daily ragweed pollen counts and ten daily meteorological variables are evaluated with special focus on the interactions between the phyto-physiological processes and the meteorological elements. Instead of a Pearson correlation measuring the strength of the linear relationship between two random variables, a generalised correlation that measures every kind of relationship between random vectors was used. These latter correlations between arrays of daily values of the ten meteorological elements and the array of daily ragweed pollen concentrations during the current pollen season were calculated. For the current pollen season, the six most important variables are two temperature variables (mean and minimum temperatures), two humidity variables (dew point depression and rainfall) and two variables characterising the mixing of the air (wind speed and the height of the planetary boundary layer). The six most important meteorological variables before the current pollen season contain four temperature variables (mean, maximum, minimum temperatures and soil temperature) and two variables that characterise large-scale weather patterns (sea level pressure and the height of the planetary boundary layer). Key periods of the past meteorological variables before the current pollen season have been identified. The importance of this kind of analysis is that a knowledge of the past meteorological conditions may contribute to a better prediction of the upcoming pollen season.

A new approach used to explore associations of current Ambrosia pollen levels with current and past meteorological elements.

PubMed

Matyasovszky, István; Makra, László; Csépe, Zoltán; Deák, Áron József; Pál-Molnár, Elemér; Fülöp, Andrea; Tusnády, Gábor

2015-09-01

The paper examines the sensitivity of daily airborne Ambrosia (ragweed) pollen levels of a current pollen season not only on daily values of meteorological variables during this season but also on the past meteorological conditions. The results obtained from a 19-year data set including daily ragweed pollen counts and ten daily meteorological variables are evaluated with special focus on the interactions between the phyto-physiological processes and the meteorological elements. Instead of a Pearson correlation measuring the strength of the linear relationship between two random variables, a generalised correlation that measures every kind of relationship between random vectors was used. These latter correlations between arrays of daily values of the ten meteorological elements and the array of daily ragweed pollen concentrations during the current pollen season were calculated. For the current pollen season, the six most important variables are two temperature variables (mean and minimum temperatures), two humidity variables (dew point depression and rainfall) and two variables characterising the mixing of the air (wind speed and the height of the planetary boundary layer). The six most important meteorological variables before the current pollen season contain four temperature variables (mean, maximum, minimum temperatures and soil temperature) and two variables that characterise large-scale weather patterns (sea level pressure and the height of the planetary boundary layer). Key periods of the past meteorological variables before the current pollen season have been identified. The importance of this kind of analysis is that a knowledge of the past meteorological conditions may contribute to a better prediction of the upcoming pollen season.

Cardiovascular and thermal strain during 3-4 days of a metabolically demanding cold-weather military operation.

PubMed

Castellani, John W; Spitz, Marissa G; Karis, Anthony J; Martini, Svein; Young, Andrew J; Margolis, Lee M; Phillip Karl, J; Murphy, Nancy E; Xu, Xiaojiang; Montain, Scott J; Bohn, Jamie A; Teien, Hilde K; Stenberg, Pål H; Gundersen, Yngvar; Pasiakos, Stefan M

2017-01-01

Cardiovascular (CV) and thermal responses to metabolically demanding multi-day military operations in extreme cold-weather environments are not well described. Characterization of these operations will provide greater insights into possible performance capabilities and cold injury risk. Soldiers from two cold-weather field training exercises (FTX) were studied during 3-day (study 1, n  = 18, age: 20 ± 1 year, height: 182 ± 7 cm, mass: 82 ± 9 kg) and 4-day (study 2, n  = 10, age: 20 ± 1 year, height: 182 ± 6 cm, mass: 80.7 ± 8.3 kg) ski marches in the Arctic. Ambient temperature ranged from -18 to -4 °C during both studies. Total daily energy expenditure (TDEE, from doubly labeled water), heart rate (HR), deep body ( T pill ), and torso ( T torso ) skin temperature (obtained in studies 1 and 2) as well as finger ( T fing ), toe ( T toe ), wrist, and calf temperatures (study 2) were measured. TDEE was 6821 ± 578 kcal day -1 and 6394 ± 544 for study 1 and study 2, respectively. Mean HR ranged from 120 to 140 bpm and mean T pill ranged between 37.5 and 38.0 °C during skiing in both studies. At rest, mean T pill ranged from 36.0 to 36.5 °C, (lowest value recorded was 35.5 °C). Mean T fing ranged from 32 to 35 °C during exercise and dropped to 15 °C during rest, with some T fing values as low as 6-10 °C. T toe was above 30 °C during skiing but dropped to 15-20 °C during rest. Daily energy expenditures were among the highest observed for a military training exercise, with moderate exercise intensity levels (~65% age-predicted maximal HR) observed. The short-term cold-weather training did not elicit high CV and T pill strain. T fing and T toe were also well maintained while skiing, but decreased to values associated with thermal discomfort at rest.

Characteristics of Atmospheric Pollution in Handan, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, P.; Wang, L.; Zhao, X.; Yang, J.; Wei, Z.; Su, J.; Zhang, F.; Meng, C.

2013-12-01

Handan, located in the southern edge of Hebei province, is one of the cities with worst air pollution in China. Based on the data from our comprehensive air quality monitoring station in Handan from August 2012 to January 2013, a series studies on the characteristics of air pollution in Handan were conducted. The daily mean concentration of PM10 and PM2.5 was 231.5 μg/m3 and 125.8 μg/m3 which exceeded daily National Ambient Air Quality Standard II (NAAQS) of China by 54.3% and 67.7% respectively. The highest daily concentration of them was 863.9 μg/m3 and 643.0 μg/m3, appeared on January 11, 2013, exceeding NAAQS by 475.9% and 757.3% respectively. Mean ratio of PM2.5/PM10 was 0.53. High PM2.5/PM10 ratio frequently occurred in winter, especially January (0.63) and February (0.65). Average daily concentration of SO2, NOx, NO2 and CO was 118 μg/m3, 133 μg/m3, 60.4 μg/m3 and 3210 μg/m3 respectively. The maximum daily average concentration of them was 393 μg/m3, 352 μg/m3, 135 μg/m3, 9660 μg/m3 which was 2.62, 3.52, 2.69, 2.42 times of daily NAAQS. The average concentration of total water soluble ions (TWSI) in PM2.5 from October 13 to December 21, 2012 was 69.57 μg/m3 which accounted for 61.67% of PM2.5. NO3-, SO42-, Cl- and NH4+ were the most important components of water soluble ionic composition in PM2.5.their concentration was 21.20 μg/m3, 16.96 μg/m3,8.43 μg/m3 and 14.81 μg/m3, accounted for 18.8%, 15.03% ,7.47% and 13.13% in PM2.5, respectively. Concentration of NO3- and SO42- had a good correlation (R2 = 0.807). The daily average concentration of OC and EC was 22.17 μg/m3, 6.29 μg/m3, accounted for 19.65%, 5.58% in PM2.5 respectively. The average ratio of OC/EC was 3.44, which shows that there is secondary organic carbon (SOC) in carbonaceous aerosol. Chemical characteristics of PM2.5 in Beijing, Tianjin and Handan were very similar. Most of Daily visibility values (67.4%) were lower than 5 km from August 2012 to January 2013. Daily visibility above 16 km was very scarce in Handan. Mean value of daily visibility was only 4.4×3.5 km in the range of 0.3 to 15.6 km. Average daily value of BC, NO, O3, RH, temperature, pressure was 9.3 μg/m3, 35.7 ppb, 20.6 ppb, 64.4%, 12.1 degree and 1011.2 hPa respectively. During the most polluted period from January 6 to January 31, 2013, mean daily visibility was 0.9 km. Average value of BC, NO, RH, temperature and pressure was 20.4 μg/m3, 98.4 ppb, 89.2%, -1.9 degree and 1015.9 hPa respectively. Visibility showed negative correlation with BC, RH, NO2, PM2.5, NOx, PM10, NO, CO, SO2, pressure and showed positive correlation with O3 and temperature. The most related four parameters with visibility were BC, RH, NO2 and PM2.5. The least related four parameters with visibility were O3, temperature, SO2 and pressure. Empirical model was developed to investigate the complex relationships between visibility, meteorological and pollutant parameters. The modeling result was as following: The model computed visibility had good consistence with the observed values.

Weather effects on avian breeding performance and implications of climate change.

PubMed

Skagen, Susan K; Adams, Amy A Yackel

2012-06-01

The influence of recent climate change on the world's biota has manifested broadly, resulting in latitudinal range shifts, advancing dates of arrival of migrants and onset of breeding, and altered community relationships. Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it will likely exacerbate a broad range of identified threats to animal populations. In the past few decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American avifauna, largely due to habitat threats such as the intensification of agriculture. We examine the effects of local climatic variations on the breeding performance of a bird endemic to the shortgrass prairie, the Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys) and discuss the implications of our findings relative to future climate predictions. Clutch size, nest survival, and productivity all positively covaried with seasonal precipitation; yet relatively intense daily precipitation events temporarily depressed daily survival of nests. Nest survival was positively related to average temperatures during the breeding season. Declining summer precipitation may reduce the likelihood that Lark Buntings can maintain stable breeding populations in eastern Colorado although average temperature increases of up to 3 degrees C (within the range of this study) may ameliorate declines in survival expected with drier conditions. Historic climate variability in the Great Plains selects for a degree of vagility and opportunism rather than strong site fidelity and specific adaptation to local environments. These traits may lead to northerly shifts in distribution if climatic and habitat conditions become less favorable in the drying southern regions of the Great Plains. Distributional shifts in Lark Buntings could be constrained by future changes in land use, agricultural practices, or vegetative communities that result in further loss of shortgrass prairie habitats.

Weather effects on avian breeding performance and implications of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skagen, Susan K.; Yackel Adams, Amy A.

2012-01-01

The influence of recent climate change on the world’s biota has manifested broadly, resulting in latitudinal range shifts, advancing dates of arrival of migrants and onset of breeding, and altered community relationships. Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it will likely exacerbate a broad range of identified threats to animal populations. In the past few decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American avifauna, largely due to habitat threats such as the intensification of agriculture. We examine the effects of local climatic variations on the breeding performance of a bird endemic to the shortgrass prairie, the Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys) and discuss the implications of our findings relative to future climate predictions. Clutch size, nest survival, and productivity all positively covaried with seasonal precipitation, yet relatively intense daily precipitation events temporarily depressed daily survival of nests. Nest survival was positively related to average temperatures during the breeding season. Declining summer precipitation may reduce the likelihood that Lark Buntings can maintain stable breeding populations in eastern Colorado although average temperature increases of up to 38C (within the range of this study) may ameliorate declines in survival expected with drier conditions. Historic climate variability in the Great Plains selects for a degree of vagility and opportunism rather than strong site fidelity and specific adaptation to local environments. These traits may lead to northerly shifts in distribution if climatic and habitat conditions become less favorable in the drying southern regions of the Great Plains. Distributional shifts in Lark Buntings could be constrained by future changes in land use, agricultural practices, or vegetative communities that result in further loss of shortgrass prairie habitats.

Assessing the Implications of Changing Extreme Value Distributions of Weather on Carbon and Water Cycling in Grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunsell, N. A.; Nippert, J. B.

2011-12-01

As the climate warms, it is generally acknowledged that the number and magnitude of extreme weather events will increase. We examined an ecophysiological model's responses to precipitation and temperature anomalies in relation to the mean and variance of annual precipitation along a pronounced precipitation gradient from eastern to western Kansas. This natural gradient creates a template of potential responses for both the mean and variance of annual precipitation to compare the timescales of carbon and water fluxes. Using data from several Ameriflux sites (KZU and KFS) and a third eddy covariance tower (K4B) along the gradient, BIOME-BGC was used to characterize water and carbon cycle responses to extreme weather events. Changes in the extreme value distributions were based on SRES A1B and A2 scenarios using an ensemble mean of 21 GCMs for the region, downscaled using a stochastic weather generator. We focused on changing the timing and magnitude of precipitation and altering the diurnal and seasonal temperature ranges. Biome-BGC was then forced with daily output from the stochastic weather generator, and we examined how potential changes in these extreme value distributions impact carbon and water cycling at the sites across the Kansas precipitation gradient at time scales ranging from daily to interannual. To decompose the time scales of response, we applied a wavelet based information theory analysis approach. Results indicate impacts in soil moisture memory and carbon allocation processes, which vary in response to both the mean and variance of precipitation along the precipitation gradient. These results suggest a more pronounced focus ecosystem responses to extreme events across a range of temporal scales in order to fully characterize the water and carbon cycle responses to global climate change.

Daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual ammonia emissions from Southern High Plains cattle feedyards.

PubMed

Todd, Richard W; Cole, N Andy; Rhoades, Marty B; Parker, David B; Casey, Kenneth D

2011-01-01

Ammonia emitted from beef cattle feedyards adds excess reactive N to the environment, contributes to degraded air quality as a precursor to secondary particulate matter, and represents a significant loss of N from beef cattle feedyards. We used open path laser spectroscopy and an inverse dispersion model to quantify daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual NH emissions during 2 yr from two commercial cattle feedyards in the Panhandle High Plains of Texas. Annual patterns of NH fluxes correlated with air temperature, with the greatest fluxes (>100 kg ha d) during the summer and the lowest fluxes (<15 kg ha d) during the winter. Mean monthly per capita emission rate (PCER) of NH-N at one feedyard ranged from 31 g NH-N head d (January) to 207 g NH-N head d (October), when increased dietary crude protein from wet distillers grains elevated emissions. Ammonia N emissions at the other feedyard ranged from 36 g NH-N head d (January) to 121 g NH-N head d (September). Monthly fractional NH-N loss ranged from a low of 19 to 24% to a high of 80 to 85% of fed N at the two feedyards. Seasonal PCER at the two feedyards averaged 60 to 71 g NH-N head d during winter and 103 to 158 g NH-N head d during summer. Annually, PCER was 115 and 80 g NH-N head d at the two feedyards, which represented 59 and 52% of N fed to the cattle. Detailed studies are needed to determine the effect of management and environmental variables such as diet, temperature, precipitation, and manure water content on NH emissions. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Stream Temperatures in the Methow River Basin, Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gangopadhyay, S.; Caldwell, R. J.; Lai, Y.; Bountry, J.

2011-12-01

The Methow River in Washington offers prime spawning habitat for salmon and other cold-water fishes. During the summer months, low streamflows on the Methow result in cutoff side channels that limit the habitat available to these fishes. Future climate scenarios of increasing air temperature and decreasing precipitation suggest the potential for increasing loss of habitat and fish mortality as stream temperatures rise in response to lower flows and additional heating. To assess the impacts of climate change on stream temperature in the Methow River, the US Bureau of Reclamation is developing an hourly time-step, two-dimensional hydraulic model of the confluence of the Methow and Chewuch Rivers above Winthrop. The model will be coupled with a physical stream temperature model to generate spatial representations of stream conditions conducive for fish habitat. In this study, we develop a statistical framework for generating stream temperature time series from global climate model (GCM) and hydrologic model outputs. Regional observations of stream temperature and hydrometeorological conditions are used to develop statistical models of daily mean stream temperature for the Methow River at Winthrop, WA. Temperature and precipitation projections from 10 global climate models (GCMs) are coupled with the streamflow generated using the University of Washington Variable Infiltration Capacity model. The projections serve as input to the statistical models to generate daily time series of mean daily stream temperature. Since the output from the GCM, VIC, and statistical models offer only daily data, a k-nearest neighbor (k-nn) resampling technique is employed to select appropriate proportion vectors for disaggregating the Winthrop daily flow and temperature to an upstream location on each of the rivers above the confluence. Hourly proportion vectors are then used to disaggregate the daily flow and temperature to hourly values to be used in the hydraulic model. Historical meteorological variables are also selected using the k-nn method. We present the statistical modeling framework using Generalized Linear Models (GLMs), along with diagnostics and measurements of skill. We will also provide a comparison of the stream temperature projections from the future years of 2020, 2040, and 2080 and discuss the potential implications on fish habitat in the Methow River. Future integration of the hourly climate scenarios in the hydraulic model will provide the ability to assess the spatial extent of habitat impacts and allow the USBR to evaluate the effectiveness of various river restoration projects in maintaining or improving habitat in a changing climate.

Observations and simulations of the interactions between clouds, radiation, and precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naegele, Alexandra Claire

Increasing precipitation and warming temperatures associated with climate change have been documented across the globe, including in the Northeast US. These climate changes threaten human health in many ways. Research is necessary to understand and explain the relationship between climate change and human health. Extreme weather events such as extreme temperatures, convective storms, floods, lightning events, wintry precipitation, and low visibility, are frequently associated with adverse effects on human health. While more media attention is typically given to events that cause the most structural or economic damage (e.g., tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, etc.), extreme temperatures ultimately account for the greatest loss of life in the US. Extreme weather events can be unpredictable; however, improved knowledge and technology allow meteorologists to accurately forecast many of these events, specifically extreme temperature and precipitation events. Advancing our knowledge of climate variability and trends in extreme weather can inform: public education programs to alert the community of the dangers of extreme heat or cold, emergency response plans to hazardous weather conditions, and current thresholds for emergency alerts. This study evaluates trends in extreme weather events across New Hampshire and links these extreme events to adverse health outcomes. Using data from NCEI Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN) - Daily dataset (1981 - 2015), five daily xiii Extreme Weather Metrics (EWMs) were defined: Daily Maximum Temperature ≤32°F, Daily Maximum Temperature ≥90°F, Daily Maximum Temperature ≥95°F, Daily Precipitation ≥1", and Daily Precipitation ≥2". Relevant human health outcomes were extracted from the New Hampshire Hospital Discharge Dataset for the years 2001-2009. Health cases were defined based on the International Classification of Disease 9th Revision (ICD-9). Outcomes in this analysis include: All-Cause Injury, Vehicle Accidents, Accidental Falls, Accidents Due to Natural and Environmental (including excessive heat, excessive cold, exposure due to weather conditions, lightning, and storms and floods), Accidental Drowning, and Carbon Monoxide Poisoning. Temporal and spatial trends were assessed, and the associations between all health outcomes and EWMs, daily maximum temperature, and daily precipitation were evaluated via Spearman correlations. Once the four strongest correlations were determined, a quasi-Poisson regression model was used to evaluate the relationship between each exposureoutcome pair. These pairs were modeled to show the relation between maximum temperature and all-cause hospital visits, hospital visits related to vehicle accidents, hospital visits related to accidental falls, and hospital visits related to heat. Future work will incorporate these findings into public health planning and programming. This project is a collaboration with New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services (NH DHHS) who have a shared interest in understanding the impact of extreme weather events on the citizens of New Hampshire. Furthermore, this work supports an ongoing effort to implement the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) Framework, which focuses on identifying climate and weather-related hazards and estimating the associated disease burden.

Modeling demographic response to constant temperature in Hypera postica (Coleoptera: Curculionidae).

PubMed

Zahiri, Babak; Fathipour, Yaghoub; Khanjani, Mohammad; Moharramipour, Saeid; Zalucki, Myron P

2010-04-01

Alfalfa weevil, Hypera postica (Gyllenhal) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), is among the most destructive pests of alfalfa, Medicago sativa L., in the world. Survivorship and fecundity schedules of H. postica were investigated to characterize the population growth potential of the weevil at six constant temperatures: 11.5, 14.0, 19.0, 24.0, 29.0, and 31.5 degrees C. Preoviposition period, oviposition period and female longevity significantly decreased with rising temperature within the temperature range tested. At the respective temperatures adult female lived an average of 294.2, 230.2, 163.6, 141.0, 84.10, and 32.9 d, with average lifetime progeny production of 470, 814, 2209, 3619, 2656, and 338 eggs per female. The net reproductive rates (R0) were 86.9, 288.0, 869.7, 1,479.7, 989.8, and 107.8 females per female, respectively. Mean daily fecundity (Mx) was modeled as a function of time by using both Enkegaard and Analytis models. Survivorship data (l(x)) of adult females were summarized and compared using the shape and scale parameters of the Weibull frequency distribution model across the temperature range tested. Life table entropy values within the range 14.0-31.5 degrees C (H < 0.5) indicates Slobodkin's type I survivorship curve; however, the value of 0.806 at 11.5 degrees C (H > 0.5) corresponds to type III. As temperature increased, the r(m) exhibited an asymmetrical dome-shaped pattern, with a maximum value of 0.114 females per female per d at 29.0 degrees C. The r(m)-temperature relation of weevils was modeled and critical temperatures (T(Min), T(Opt), and T(Max)) for intrinsic rate of increase of the weevil were computed as 8.83, 30.61, and 32.14 degrees C and 5.72, 29.94, and 32.12 degrees C by using Analytis/Allahyari and Analytis/Briere-2 models, respectively.

Discussion of Yellow Starthistle Response to Irradiance, Photoperiod, and CO2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bubenheim, David L.

2016-01-01

Yellow Starthistle (Centaurea solstitialis) is a native annual weed of Eurasia and since introduction into the US has become an invasive and noxious weed. It grows in a rosette habit during the vegetative state and usually bolts in summer to produce a large and branched flowering stem. Time to flowering in Yellow Starthistle has been attributed to photoperiod, nitrogen nutrition, temperature, and water stress. We executed a series of studies to investigate the role of light, both photoperiod and photosynthetic photon flux, on flowering and development in Yellow Starthistle. Treatments were presented in 4 ways: (1) Varying day length with constant photosynthetic photon flus (PPF) - providing increasing daily integrated Photosynthetic Photon (PP) exposure with longer day lengths, (2) Varying day length while adjusting PPF to maintain daily PP exposure for all treatments, (3) Extending photoperiod treatments beyond common 12-h photosynthetic period with low light levels to maintain both PPF and daily PP across all treatments; and (4) Reciprocal exchange of plant among photoperiod treatments. Yellow Starthistle appears to be a long-day plant with a critical day length requirement between 14-h and 16-h to induce transition from vegetative to floral stages in development. PPF and daily absorbed photons did not affect time to vegetative / floral stage transition, but did affect factors such as biomass accumulation and canopy parameters such as specific leaf mass. Reciprocal exchange of plants between floral inducing and inhibiting photoperiod treatments, starting at 2-weeks post germination, had no effect on to flower. Flowering was determined by photoperiod experienced during the first 2-weeks (or less) post germination. Yellow Starthistle net photosynthetic response to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations over a range of photosynthetically active radiation flux rates and temperatures will also be presented and discussed.

Discussion of Yellow Starthistle Response to Photosynthetic Irradiance, Photoperiod, and CO2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bubenheim, David

2017-01-01

Yellow Starthistle (Centaurea solstitialis) is a native annual weed of Eurasia and since introduction into the United STates has become an invasive and noxious weed. It grows in a rosette habit during the vegetative state and usually bolts in summer to produce a large and branched flowering stem. Time to flowering in Yellow Starthistle has been attributed to photoperiod, nitrogen nutrition, temperature, and water stress. We executed a series of studies to investigate the role of light, both photoperiod and photosynthetic photon flux, on flowering and development in Yellow Starthistle. Treatments were presented in 4 ways: 1) varying day length with constant photosynthetic photon flus (PPF) providing increasing daily integrated Photosynthetic Photon (PP) exposure with longer day lengths 2) varying day length while adjusting PPF to maintain daily PP exposure for all treatments 3) extending photoperiod treatments beyond common 12-h photosynthetic period with low light levels to maintain both PPF and daily PP across all treatments4)reciprocal exchange of plant among photoperiod treatments Yellow Starthistle appears to be a long-day plant with a critical day length requirement between 14-h and 16-h to induce transition from vegetative to floral stages in development. PPF and daily absorbed photons did not affect time to vegetative floral stage transition, but did affect factors such as biomass accumulation and canopy parameters such as specific leaf mass. Reciprocal exchange of plants between floral inducing and inhibiting photoperiod treatments, starting at 2-weeks post germination, had no effect on to flower. Flowering was determined by photoperiod experienced during the first 2-weeks (or less) post germination.Yellow Starthistle net photosynthetic response to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations over a range of photosynthetically active radiation flux rates and temperatures will also be presented and discussed.

Fasting-induced daily torpor in desert hamsters (Phodopus roborovskii).

PubMed

Chi, Qing-Sheng; Wan, Xin-Rong; Geiser, Fritz; Wang, De-Hua

2016-09-01

Daily torpor is frequently expressed in small rodents when facing energetically unfavorable ambient conditions. Desert hamsters (Phodopus roborovskii, ~20g) appear to be an exception as they have been described as homeothermic. However, we hypothesized that they can use torpor because we observed reversible decreases of body temperature (Tb) in fasted hamsters. To test this hypothesis we (i) randomly exposed fasted summer-acclimated hamsters to ambient temperatures (Tas) ranging from 5 to 30°C or (ii) supplied them with different rations of food at Ta 23°C. All desert hamsters showed heterothermy with the lowest mean Tb of 31.4±1.9°C (minimum, 29.0°C) and 31.8±2.0°C (minimum, 29.0°C) when fasted at Ta of 23°C and 19°C, respectively. Below Ta 19°C, the lowest Tb and metabolic rate increased and the proportion of hamsters using heterothermy declined. At Ta 5°C, nearly all hamsters remained normothermic by increasing heat production, suggesting that the heterothermy only occurs in moderately cold conditions, perhaps to avoid freezing at extremely low Tas. During heterothermy, Tbs below 31°C with metabolic rates below 25% of those during normothermia were detected in four individuals at Ta of 19°C and 23°C. Consequently, by definition, our observations confirm that fasted desert hamsters are capable of shallow daily torpor. The negative correlation between the lowest Tbs and amount of food supply shows that heterothermy was mainly triggered by food shortage. Our data indicate that summer-acclimated desert hamsters can express fasting-induced shallow daily torpor, which may be of significance for energy conservation and survival in the wild. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimates of surface humidity and latent heat fluxes over oceans from SSM/I data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cho, S.H.; Atlas, R.M.; Shie, C.L.

1995-08-01

Monthly averages of daily latent heat fluxes over the oceans for February and August 1988 are estimated using a stability-dependent bulk scheme. Daily fluxes are computed from daily SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave/Imager) wind speeds and EOF-retrieved SSM/I surface humidity, National Meteorological Center sea surface temperatures, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyzed 2-m temperatures. Daily surface specific humidity (Q) is estimated from SSM/I precipitable water of total (W) and a 500-m bottom layer (W{sub B}) using an EOF (empirical orthogonal function) method. This method has six W-based categories of EOFs (independent of geographical locations) and is developed usingmore » 23 177 FGGE IIb humidity soundings over the global oceans. For 1200 FGGE IIb humidity soundings, the accuracy of EOF-retrieved Q is 0.75 g kg{sup -1} for the case without errors in W and W{sub B} and increases to 1.16 g kg{sup -1} for the case with errors in W and W{sub B}. Compared to 342 collocated radiosonde observations, the EOF-retrieved SSM/I Q has an accuracy of 1.7 g kg{sup -1}. The method improves upon the humidity retrieval of Liu and is competitive with that of Schulz et al. The SSM/I surface humidity and latent heat fluxes of these two months agree reasonably well with those of COADS (Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set). Compared to the COADS, the sea-air humidity difference of SSM/I has a positive bias of approximately 1-3 g kg{sup -1} (an overestimation of flux) over the wintertime eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, it has a negative bias of about 1-2 g kg{sup -1} (an underestimation of flux). The results further suggest that the two monthly flux estimates, computed from daily and monthly mean data, do not differ significantly over the oceans. 35 refs., 12 figs., 4 tabs.« less

Changes of the time-varying percentiles of daily extreme temperature in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bin; Chen, Fang; Xu, Feng; Wang, Xinrui

2017-11-01

Identifying the air temperature frequency distributions and evaluating the trends in time-varying percentiles are very important for climate change studies. In order to get a better understanding of the recent temporal and spatial pattern of the temperature changes in China, we have calculated the trends in temporal-varying percentiles of the daily extreme air temperature firstly. Then we divide all the stations to get the spatial patterns for the percentile trends using the average linkage cluster analysis method. To make a comparison, the shifts of trends percentile frequency distribution from 1961-1985 to 1986-2010 are also examined. Important results in three aspects have been achieved: (1) In terms of the trends in temporal-varying percentiles of the daily extreme air temperature, the most intense warming for daily maximum air temperature (Tmax) was detected in the upper percentiles with a significant increasing tendency magnitude (>2.5 °C/50year), and the greatest warming for daily minimum air temperature (Tmin) occurred with very strong trends exceeding 4 °C/50year. (2) The relative coherent spatial patterns for the percentile trends were found, and stations for the whole country had been divided into three clusters. The three primary clusters were distributed regularly to some extent from north to south, indicating the possible large influence of the latitude. (3) The most significant shifts of trends percentile frequency distribution from 1961-1985 to 1986-2010 was found in Tmax. More than half part of the frequency distribution show negative trends less than -0.5 °C/50year in 1961-1985, while showing trends less than 2.5 °C/50year in 1986-2010.

A Gridded Daily Min/Max Temperature Dataset With 0.1° Resolution for the Yangtze River Valley and its Error Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, Qiufen; Hu, Jianglin

2013-05-01

The minimum/maximum (Min/Max) temperature in the Yangtze River valley is decomposed into the climatic mean and anomaly component. A spatial interpolation is developed which combines the 3D thin-plate spline scheme for climatological mean and the 2D Barnes scheme for the anomaly component to create a daily Min/Max temperature dataset. The climatic mean field is obtained by the 3D thin-plate spline scheme because the relationship between the decreases in Min/Max temperature with elevation is robust and reliable on a long time-scale. The characteristics of the anomaly field tend to be related to elevation variation weakly, and the anomaly component is adequately analyzed by the 2D Barnes procedure, which is computationally efficient and readily tunable. With this hybridized interpolation method, a daily Min/Max temperature dataset that covers the domain from 99°E to 123°E and from 24°N to 36°N with 0.1° longitudinal and latitudinal resolution is obtained by utilizing daily Min/Max temperature data from three kinds of station observations, which are national reference climatological stations, the basic meteorological observing stations and the ordinary meteorological observing stations in 15 provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River valley from 1971 to 2005. The error estimation of the gridded dataset is assessed by examining cross-validation statistics. The results show that the statistics of daily Min/Max temperature interpolation not only have high correlation coefficient (0.99) and interpolation efficiency (0.98), but also the mean bias error is 0.00 °C. For the maximum temperature, the root mean square error is 1.1 °C and the mean absolute error is 0.85 °C. For the minimum temperature, the root mean square error is 0.89 °C and the mean absolute error is 0.67 °C. Thus, the new dataset provides the distribution of Min/Max temperature over the Yangtze River valley with realistic, successive gridded data with 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution and daily temporal scale. The primary factors influencing the dataset precision are elevation and terrain complexity. In general, the gridded dataset has a relatively high precision in plains and flatlands and a relatively low precision in mountainous areas.

A comparative study of basal metabolism and thermoregulation in a folivorous (Colobus guereza) and an omnivorous (Cercopithecus mitis) primate species.

PubMed

Müller, E F; Kamau, J M; Maloiy, G M

1983-01-01

1. Abdominal temperatures (Tab) and oxygen consumption (VO2) were measured in two males each of colobus and Sykes monkeys. 2. Tab in both species had the same range (36 38.5 C), but there were marked differences in the daily rhythms. 3. Low ambient temperatures (Ta) had little effect on Tab; at Ta = 33.5 35.5 C. however, Tab rose quickly to above 40 C. 4. The thermoneutral zone (TNZ) extended from about 5 to 28 C in both species. 5. In the colobus monkeys the basal metabolic rate (BMR) was considerably lower than in the Sykes monkeys: 85% vs 113% of the value predicted from body mass.

Temperature-induced excess mortality in Moscow, Russia.

PubMed

Revich, Boris; Shaposhnikov, Dmitri

2008-05-01

After considering the observed long-term trends in average monthly temperatures distribution in Moscow, the authors evaluated how acute mortality responded to changes in daily average, minimum and maximum temperatures throughout the year, and identified vulnerable population groups, by age and causes of death. A plot of the basic mortality-temperature relationship indicated that this relationship was V-shaped with the minimum around 18 degrees C. Each 1 degree C increment of average daily temperature above 18 degrees C resulted in an increase in deaths from all non-accidental causes by 2.8%, from coronary heart disease by 2.7%, from cerebrovascular diseases by 4.7%, and from respiratory diseases by 8.7%, with a lag of 0 or 1 day. Each 1 degrees C drop of average daily temperature from +18 degrees C to -10 degrees C resulted in an increase in deaths from all non-accidental causes by 0.49%, from coronary heart disease by 0.57%, from cerebrovascular diseases by 0.78%, and from respiratory diseases by 1.5%, with lags of maximum association varying from 3 days for non-accidental mortality to 6 days for cerebrovascular mortality. In the age group 75+ years, corresponding risks were consistently higher by 13-30%. The authors also estimated the increase in non-accidental deaths against the variation of daily temperatures. For each 1 degrees C increase of variation of temperature throughout the day, mortality increased by 0.3-1.9%, depending on other assumptions of the model.

Temperature-induced excess mortality in Moscow, Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revich, Boris; Shaposhnikov, Dmitri

2008-05-01

After considering the observed long-term trends in average monthly temperatures distribution in Moscow, the authors evaluated how acute mortality responded to changes in daily average, minimum and maximum temperatures throughout the year, and identified vulnerable population groups, by age and causes of death. A plot of the basic mortality temperature relationship indicated that this relationship was V-shaped with the minimum around 18°C. Each 1°C increment of average daily temperature above 18°C resulted in an increase in deaths from all non-accidental causes by 2.8%, from coronary heart disease by 2.7%, from cerebrovascular diseases by 4.7%, and from respiratory diseases by 8.7%, with a lag of 0 or 1 day. Each 1°C drop of average daily temperature from +18°C to -10°C resulted in an increase in deaths from all non-accidental causes by 0.49%, from coronary heart disease by 0.57%, from cerebrovascular diseases by 0.78%, and from respiratory diseases by 1.5%, with lags of maximum association varying from 3 days for non-accidental mortality to 6 days for cerebrovascular mortality. In the age group 75+ years, corresponding risks were consistently higher by 13 30%. The authors also estimated the increase in non-accidental deaths against the variation of daily temperatures. For each 1°C increase of variation of temperature throughout the day, mortality increased by 0.3 1.9%, depending on other assumptions of the model.

A new method for estimating the turbulent heat flux at the bottom of the daily mixed layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Imawaki, Shiro; Niiler, Pearn P.; Gautier, Catherine H.; Knox, Robert A.; Halpern, David

1988-01-01

Temperature data in the mixed layer and net solar irradiance data at the sea surface are used to estimate the vertical turbulent heat flux at the bottom of the daily mixed layer. The method is applied to data obtained in the eastern tropical Pacific, where the daily cycle in the temperature field is confined to the upper 10-25 m. Equatorial turbulence measurements indicate that the turbulent heat flux is much greater during nighttime than daytime.

Effects of constant and cyclical thermal regimes on growth and feeding of juvenile cutthroat trout of variable sizes

Treesearch

M. H. Meeuwig; J. B. Dunham; J. P. Hayes; G. L. Vinyard

2004-01-01

The effects of constant (12, 18, and 24°C) and cyclical (daily variation of 15–21 and 12–24 °C) thermal regimes on the growth and feeding of Lahontan cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki henshawi) of variable sizes were examined. Higher constant temperatures (i.e., 24°C) and more variable daily temperatures (i.e., 12–24°C daily cycle) negatively...

Heat and emergency room admissions in the Netherlands.

PubMed

van Loenhout, Joris Adriaan Frank; Delbiso, Tefera Darge; Kiriliouk, Anna; Rodriguez-Llanes, Jose Manuel; Segers, Johan; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2018-01-05

Due to a global warming-related increase in heatwaves, it is important to obtain detailed understanding of the relationship between heat and health. We assessed the relationship between heat and urgent emergency room admissions in the Netherlands. We collected daily maximum temperature and relative humidity data over the period 2002-2007. Daily urgent emergency room admissions were divided by sex, age group and disease category. We used distributed lag non-linear Poisson models, estimating temperature-admission associations. We estimated the relative risk (RR) for urgent hospital admissions for a range of temperatures compared to a baseline temperature of 21 °C. In addition, we compared the impact of three different temperature scenarios on admissions using the RR. There is a positive relationship between increasing temperatures above 21 °C and the RR for urgent emergency room admissions for the disease categories 'Potential heat-related diseases' and 'Respiratory diseases'. This relationship is strongest in the 85+ group. The RRs are strongest for lag 0. For admissions for 'circulatory diseases', there is only a small significant increase of RRs within the 85+ age group for moderate heat, but not for extreme heat. The RRs for a one-day event with extreme heat are comparable to the RRs for multiple-day events with moderate heat. Hospitals should adjust the capacity of their emergency departments on warm days, and the days immediately thereafter. The elderly in particular should be targeted through prevention programmes to reduce harmful effects of heat. The fact that this increase in admissions already occurs in temperatures above 21 °C is different from previous findings in warmer countries. Given the similar impact of three consecutive days of moderate heat and one day of extreme heat on admissions, criteria for activation of national heatwave plans need adjustments based on different temperature scenarios.

Thermal biology, torpor and behaviour in sugar gliders: a laboratory-field comparison.

PubMed

Geiser, Fritz; Holloway, Joanne C; Körtner, Gerhard

2007-07-01

Most studies on animal physiology and behaviour are conducted in captivity without verification that data are representative of free-ranging animals. We provide the first quantitative comparison of daily torpor, thermal biology and activity patterns, conducted on two groups of sugar gliders (Petaurus breviceps, Marsupialia) exposed to similar thermal conditions, one in captivity and the other in the field. Our study shows that activity in captive gliders in an outdoor aviary is restricted to the night and largely unaffected by weather, whereas free-ranging gliders omit foraging on cold/wet nights and may also forage in the afternoon. Torpor occurrence in gliders was significantly lower in captivity (8.4% after food deprivation; 1.1% for all observations) than in the field (25.9%), mean torpor bout duration was shorter in captivity (6.9 h) than in the field (13.1 h), and mean body temperatures during torpor were higher in captivity (25.3 degrees C) than in the field (19.6 degrees C). Moreover, normothermic body temperature as a function of air temperature differed between captive and free-ranging gliders, with a >3 degrees C difference at low air temperatures. Our comparison shows that activity patterns, thermal physiology, use of torpor and patterns of torpor may differ substantially between the laboratory and field, and provides further evidence that functional and behavioural data on captive individuals may not necessarily be representative of those living in the wild.

Environmental Survival of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in Different Climatic Zones of Eastern Australia

PubMed Central

Begg, Douglas J.; Dhand, Navneet K.; Watt, Bruce; Whittington, Richard J.

2014-01-01

The duration of survival of both the S and C strains of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in feces was quantified in contrasting climatic zones of New South Wales, Australia, and detailed environmental temperature data were collected. Known concentrations of S and C strains in feces placed on soil in polystyrene boxes were exposed to the environment with or without the provision of shade (70%) at Bathurst, Armidale, Condobolin, and Broken Hill, and subsamples taken every 2 weeks were cultured for the presence of M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis. The duration of survival ranged from a minimum of 1 week to a maximum of 16 weeks, and the provision of 70% shade was the most important factor in extending the survival time. The hazard of death for exposed compared to shaded samples was 20 and 9 times higher for the S and C strains, respectively. Site did not affect the survival of the C strain, but for the S strain, the hazard of death was 2.3 times higher at the two arid zone sites (Broken Hill and Condobolin) than at the two temperate zone sites (Bathurst and Armidale). Temperature measurements revealed maximum temperatures exceeding 60°C and large daily temperature ranges at the soil surface, particularly in exposed boxes. PMID:24463974

Effects of climate change on daily minimum and maximum temperatures and cloudiness in the Shikoku region: a statistical downscaling model approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tatsumi, Kenichi; Oizumi, Tsutao; Yamashiki, Yosuke

2015-04-01

In this study, we present a detailed analysis of the effect of changes in cloudiness (CLD) between a future period (2071-2099) and the base period (1961-1990) on daily minimum temperature (TMIN) and maximum temperature (TMAX) in the same period for the Shikoku region, Japan. This analysis was performed using climate data obtained with the use of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). We calibrated the SDSM using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for the SDSM input and daily time series of temperature and CLD from 10 surface data points (SDP) in Shikoku. Subsequently, we validated the SDSM outputs, specifically, TMIN, TMAX, and CLD, obtained with the use of the NCEP reanalysis dataset and general circulation model (GCM) data against the SDP. The GCM data used in the validation procedure were those from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) for the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios and from the third generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) for the SRES A2 and A1B scenarios. Finally, the validated SDSM was run to study the effect of future changes in CLD on TMIN and TMAX. Our analysis showed that (1) the negative linear fit between changes in TMAX and those in CLD was statistically significant in winter while the relationship between the two changes was not evident in summer, (2) the dependency of future changes in TMAX and TMIN on future changes in CLD were more evident in winter than in other seasons with the present SDSM, (3) the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased in the southern part of Shikoku in summer in all the SDSM projections while DTR increased in the northern part of Shikoku in the same season in these projections, (4) the dependencies of changes in DTR on changes in CLD were unclear in summer and winter. Results of the SDSM simulations performed for climate change scenarios such as those from this study contribute to local-scale agricultural and hydrological simulations and development of agricultural and hydrological models.

A Water Temperature Simulation Model for Rice Paddies With Variable Water Depths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maruyama, Atsushi; Nemoto, Manabu; Hamasaki, Takahiro; Ishida, Sachinobu; Kuwagata, Tsuneo

2017-12-01

A water temperature simulation model was developed to estimate the effects of water management on the thermal environment in rice paddies. The model was based on two energy balance equations: for the ground and for the vegetation, and considered the water layer and changes in the aerodynamic properties of its surface with water depth. The model was examined with field experiments for water depths of 0 mm (drained conditions) and 100 mm (flooded condition) at two locations. Daily mean water temperatures in the flooded condition were mostly higher than in the drained condition in both locations, and the maximum difference reached 2.6°C. This difference was mainly caused by the difference in surface roughness of the ground. Heat exchange by free convection played an important role in determining water temperature. From the model simulation, the temperature difference between drained and flooded conditions was more apparent under low air temperature and small leaf area index conditions; the maximum difference reached 3°C. Most of this difference occurred when the range of water depth was lower than 50 mm. The season-long variation in modeled water temperature showed good agreement with an observation data set from rice paddies with various rice-growing seasons, for a diverse range of water depths (root mean square error of 0.8-1.0°C). The proposed model can estimate water temperature for a given water depth, irrigation, and drainage conditions, which will improve our understanding of the effect of water management on plant growth and greenhouse gas emissions through the thermal environment of rice paddies.

Crowdsourcing urban air temperatures from smartphone battery temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overeem, Aart; Robinson, James C. R.; Leijnse, Hidde; Steeneveld, Gert-Jan; Horn, Berthold K. P.; Uijlenhoet, Remko

2014-05-01

Accurate air temperature observations in urban areas are important for meteorology and energy demand planning. They are indispensable to study the urban heat island effect and the adverse effects of high temperatures on human health. However, the availability of temperature observations in cities is often limited. Here we show that relatively accurate air temperature information for the urban canopy layer can be obtained from an alternative, nowadays omnipresent source: smartphones. In this study, battery temperatures were collected by an Android application for smartphones. It has been shown that a straightforward heat transfer model can be employed to estimate daily mean air temperatures from smartphone battery temperatures for eight major cities around the world. The results demonstrate the enormous potential of this crowdsourcing application for real-time temperature monitoring in densely populated areas. Battery temperature data were collected by users of an Android application for cell phones (opensignal.com). The application automatically sends battery temperature data to a server for storage. In this study, battery temperatures are averaged in space and time to obtain daily averaged battery temperatures for each city separately. A regression model, which can be related to a physical model, is employed to retrieve daily air temperatures from battery temperatures. The model is calibrated with observed air temperatures from a meteorological station of an airport located in or near the city. Time series of air temperatures are obtained for each city for a period of several months, where 50% of the data is for independent verification. The methodology has been applied to Buenos Aires, London, Los Angeles, Paris, Mexico City, Moscow, Rome, and Sao Paulo. The evolution of the retrieved air temperatures often correspond well with the observed ones. The mean absolute error of daily air temperatures is less than 2 degrees Celsius, and the bias is within 1 degree Celsius. This shows that monitoring air temperatures employing an Android application holds great promise. This study will particularly focus on new results: The methodology has been applied to data from three cities in the Netherlands (Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and Utrecht) for the period June - August 2013. It is shown that on average 282 battery temperature readings per day are already sufficient to accurately estimate daily-averaged air temperatures. Results clearly deteriorate when on average only 80 battery temperature readings are available. Since 75% of the world's population has a cell phone, 20% of the land surface of the earth has cellular telephone coverage, and 500 million devices use the Android operating system, there is a huge potential for measuring air temperatures employing cell phones. This could eventually lead to real-time world-wide temperature maps over the continents.

Medium range flood forecasts at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voisin, N.; Wood, A. W.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Wood, E. F.

2006-12-01

While weather and climate forecast methods have advanced greatly over the last two decades, this capability has yet to be evidenced in mitigation of water-related natural hazards (primarily floods and droughts), especially in the developing world. Examples abound of extreme property damage and loss of life due to floods in the underdeveloped world. For instance, more than 4.5 million people were affected by the July 2000 flooding of the Mekong River and its tributaries in Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos and Thailand. The February- March 2000 floods in the Limpopo River of Mozambique caused extreme disruption to that country's fledgling economy. Mitigation of these events through advance warning has typically been modest at best. Despite the above noted improvement in weather and climate forecasts, there is at present no system for forecasting of floods globally, notwithstanding that the potential clearly exists. We describe a methodology that is eventually intended to generate global flood predictions routinely. It draws heavily from the experimental North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and the companion Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) for development of nowcasts, and the University of Washington Experimental Hydrologic Prediction System to develop ensemble hydrologic forecasts based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models which serve both as nowcasts (and hence reduce the need for in situ precipitation and other observations in parts of the world where surface networks are critically deficient) and provide forecasts for lead times as long as fifteen days. The heart of the hydrologic modeling system is the University of Washington/Princeton University Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model. In the prototype (tested using retrospective data), VIC is driven globally up to the time of forecast with daily ERA40 precipitation (rescaled on a monthly basis to a station-based global climatology), ERA40 wind, and ERA40 average surface air temperature (with temperature ranges adjusted to a station-based climatology). In the retrospective forecasting mode, VIC is driven by global NCEP ensemble 15-day reforecasts provided by Tom Hamill (NOAA/ERL), bias corrected with respect to the adjusted ERA40 data and further downscaled spatially using higher spatial resolution Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) 1dd daily precipitation. Downward solar and longwave radiation, surface relative humidity, and other model forcings are derived from relationships with the daily temperature range during both the retrospective (spinup) and forecast period. The initial system is implemented globally at one-half degree spatial resolution. We evaluate model performance retrospectively for predictions of major floods for the Oder River in 1997, the Mekong River in 2000 and the Limpopo River in 2000.

Direct quantification of energy intake in an apex marine predator suggests physiology is a key driver of migrations

PubMed Central

Whitlock, Rebecca E.; Hazen, Elliott L.; Walli, Andreas; Farwell, Charles; Bograd, Steven J.; Foley, David G.; Castleton, Michael; Block, Barbara A.

2015-01-01

Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis) are highly migratory apex marine predators that inhabit a broad thermal niche. The energy needed for migration must be garnered by foraging, but measuring energy intake in the marine environment is challenging. We quantified the energy intake of Pacific bluefin tuna in the California Current using a laboratory-validated model, the first such measurement in a wild marine predator. Mean daily energy intake was highest off the coast of Baja California, Mexico in summer (mean ± SD, 1034 ± 669 kcal), followed by autumn when Pacific bluefin achieve their northernmost range in waters off northern California (944 ± 579 kcal). Movements were not always consistent with maximizing energy intake: the Pacific bluefin move out of energy rich waters both in late summer and winter, coincident with rising and falling water temperatures, respectively. We hypothesize that temperature-related physiological constraints drive migration and that Pacific bluefin tuna optimize energy intake within a range of optimal aerobic performance. PMID:26601248

Direct quantification of energy intake in an apex marine predator suggests physiology is a key driver of migrations.

PubMed

Whitlock, Rebecca E; Hazen, Elliott L; Walli, Andreas; Farwell, Charles; Bograd, Steven J; Foley, David G; Castleton, Michael; Block, Barbara A

2015-09-01

Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis) are highly migratory apex marine predators that inhabit a broad thermal niche. The energy needed for migration must be garnered by foraging, but measuring energy intake in the marine environment is challenging. We quantified the energy intake of Pacific bluefin tuna in the California Current using a laboratory-validated model, the first such measurement in a wild marine predator. Mean daily energy intake was highest off the coast of Baja California, Mexico in summer (mean ± SD, 1034 ± 669 kcal), followed by autumn when Pacific bluefin achieve their northernmost range in waters off northern California (944 ± 579 kcal). Movements were not always consistent with maximizing energy intake: the Pacific bluefin move out of energy rich waters both in late summer and winter, coincident with rising and falling water temperatures, respectively. We hypothesize that temperature-related physiological constraints drive migration and that Pacific bluefin tuna optimize energy intake within a range of optimal aerobic performance.

Reducing Noise in the MSU Daily Lower-Tropospheric Global Temperature Dataset

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christy, John R.; Spencer, Roy W.; McNider, Richard T.

1996-01-01

The daily global-mean values of the lower-tropospheric temperature determined from microwave emissions measured by satellites are examined in terms of their signal, noise, and signal-to-noise ratio. Daily and 30-day average noise estimates are reduced by almost 50% and 35%. respectively, by analyzing and adjusting (if necessary) for errors due to 1) missing data, 2) residual harmonics of the annual cycle unique to particular satellites, 3) lack of filtering, and 4) spurious trends. After adjustments, the decadal trend of the lower-tropospheric global temperature from January 1979 through February 1994 becomes -0.058 C. or about 0.03 C per decade cooler than previously calculated.

Reducing Noise in the MSU Daily Lower-Tropospheric Global Temperature Dataset

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christy, John R.; Spencer, Roy W.; McNider, Richard T.

1995-01-01

The daily global-mean values of the lower-tropospheric temperature determined from microwave emissions measured by satellites are examined in terms of their signal, noise, and signal-to-noise ratio. Daily and 30-day average noise estimates are reduced by, almost 50% and 35%, respectively, by analyzing and adjusting (if necessary) for errors due to (1) missing data, (2) residual harmonics of the annual cycle unique to particular satellites, (3) lack of filtering, and (4) spurious trends. After adjustments, the decadal trend of the lower-tropospheric global temperature from January 1979 through February 1994 becomes -0.058 C, or about 0.03 C per decade cooler than previously calculated.

Temperature Observation Time and Type Influence Estimates of Heat-Related Mortality in Seven U.S. Cities.

PubMed

Davis, Robert E; Hondula, David M; Patel, Anjali P

2016-06-01

Extreme heat is a leading weather-related cause of mortality in the United States, but little guidance is available regarding how temperature variable selection impacts heat-mortality relationships. We examined how the strength of the relationship between daily heat-related mortality and temperature varies as a function of temperature observation time, lag, and calculation method. Long time series of daily mortality counts and hourly temperature for seven U.S. cities with different climates were examined using a generalized additive model. The temperature effect was modeled separately for each hour of the day (with up to 3-day lags) along with different methods of calculating daily maximum, minimum, and mean temperature. We estimated the temperature effect on mortality for each variable by comparing the 99th versus 85th temperature percentiles, as determined from the annual time series. In three northern cities (Boston, MA; Philadelphia, PA; and Seattle, WA) that appeared to have the greatest sensitivity to heat, hourly estimates were consistent with a diurnal pattern in the heat-mortality response, with strongest associations for afternoon or maximum temperature at lag 0 (day of death) or afternoon and evening of lag 1 (day before death). In warmer, southern cities, stronger associations were found with morning temperatures, but overall the relationships were weaker. The strongest temperature-mortality relationships were associated with maximum temperature, although mean temperature results were comparable. There were systematic and substantial differences in the association between temperature and mortality based on the time and type of temperature observation. Because the strongest hourly temperature-mortality relationships were not always found at times typically associated with daily maximum temperatures, temperature variables should be selected independently for each study location. In general, heat-mortality was more closely coupled to afternoon and maximum temperatures in most cities we examined, particularly those typically prone to heat-related mortality. Davis RE, Hondula DM, Patel AP. 2016. Temperature observation time and type influence estimates of heat-related mortality in seven U.S. cities. Environ Health Perspect 124:795-804; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509946.

Scale-dependent temporal variations in stream water geochemistry.

PubMed

Nagorski, Sonia A; Moore, Iohnnie N; McKinnon, Temple E; Smith, David B

2003-03-01

A year-long study of four western Montana streams (two impacted by mining and two "pristine") evaluated surface water geochemical dynamics on various time scales (monthly, daily, and bi-hourly). Monthly changes were dominated by snowmelt and precipitation dynamics. On the daily scale, post-rain surges in some solute and particulate concentrations were similar to those of early spring runoff flushing characteristics on the monthly scale. On the bi-hourly scale, we observed diel (diurnal-nocturnal) cycling for pH, dissolved oxygen, water temperature, dissolved inorganic carbon, total suspended sediment, and some total recoverable metals at some or all sites. A comparison of the cumulative geochemical variability within each of the temporal groups reveals that for many water quality parameters there were large overlaps of concentration ranges among groups. We found that short-term (daily and bi-hourly) variations of some geochemical parameters covered large proportions of the variations found on a much longer term (monthly) time scale. These results show the importance of nesting short-term studies within long-term geochemical study designs to separate signals of environmental change from natural variability.

Scale-dependent temporal variations in stream water geochemistry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nagorski, S.A.; Moore, J.N.; McKinnon, Temple E.; Smith, D.B.

2003-01-01

A year-long study of four western Montana streams (two impacted by mining and two "pristine") evaluated surface water geochemical dynamics on various time scales (monthly, daily, and bi-hourly). Monthly changes were dominated by snowmelt and precipitation dynamics. On the daily scale, post-rain surges in some solute and particulate concentrations were similar to those of early spring runoff flushing characteristics on the monthly scale. On the bi-hourly scale, we observed diel (diurnal-nocturnal) cycling for pH, dissolved oxygen, water temperature, dissolved inorganic carbon, total suspended sediment, and some total recoverable metals at some or all sites. A comparison of the cumulative geochemical variability within each of the temporal groups reveals that for many water quality parameters there were large overlaps of concentration ranges among groups. We found that short-term (daily and bi-hourly) variations of some geochemical parameters covered large proportions of the variations found on a much longer term (monthly) time scale. These results show the importance of nesting short-term studies within long-term geochemical study designs to separate signals of environmental change from natural variability.

Systematic identification and prioritization of communities impacted by residential woodsmoke in British Columbia, Canada.

PubMed

Hong, Kris Y; Weichenthal, Scott; Saraswat, Arvind; King, Gavin H; Henderson, Sarah B; Brauer, Michael

2017-01-01

Residential woodsmoke is an under-regulated source of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), often surpassing mobile and industrial emissions in rural communities in North America and elsewhere. In the province of British Columbia (BC), Canada, many municipalities are hesitant to adopt stricter regulations for residential wood burning without empirical evidence that smoke is affecting local air quality. The objective of this study was to develop a retrospective algorithm that uses 1-h PM 2.5 concentrations and daily temperature data to identify smoky days in order to prioritise communities by smoke impacts. Levoglucosan measurements from one of the smokiest communities were used to establish the most informative values for three algorithmic parameters: the daily standard deviation of 1-h PM 2.5 measurements; the daily mean temperature; and the daytime-to-nighttime ratio of PM 2.5 concentrations. Alternate parameterizations were tested in 45 sensitivity analyses. Using the most informative parameter values on the most recent two years of data for each community, the number of smoky days ranged from 5 to 277. Heat maps visualizing seasonal and diurnal variation in PM 2.5 concentrations showed clear differences between the higher- and lower-ranked communities. Some communities were sensitive to one or more of the parameters, but the overall rankings were consistent across the 45 analyses. This information will allow stakeholder agencies to work with local governments on implementing appropriate intervention strategies for the most smoke-impacted communities. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Gasparrini, Antonio; Guo, Yuming; Sera, Francesco; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Huber, Veronika; Tong, Shilu; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Lavigne, Eric; Matus Correa, Patricia; Valdes Ortega, Nicolas; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Jaakkola, Jouni J K; Ryti, Niilo R I; Pascal, Mathilde; Goodman, Patrick G; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Hurtado-Diaz, Magali; Cesar Cruz, Julio; Seposo, Xerxes; Kim, Ho; Tobias, Aurelio; Iñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Daniel Oudin; Ragettli, Martina S; Guo, Yue Leon; Wu, Chang-Fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Bell, Michelle L; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Van, Dung Do; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Hajat, Shakoor; Haines, Andy; Armstrong, Ben

2017-12-01

Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes. Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat-related impacts and extremely large net increases, with the net change at the end of the century ranging from 3·0% (-3·0 to 9·3) in Central America to 12·7% (-4·7 to 28·1) in southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario. Most of the health effects directly due to temperature increase could be avoided under scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit emissions and further warming of the planet. This study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks. UK Medical Research Council.

Crowdsourcing urban air temperatures through smartphone battery temperatures in São Paulo, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Droste, Arjan; Pape, Jan-Jaap; Overeem, Aart; Leijnse, Hidde; Steeneveld, Gert-Jan; Van Delden, Aarnout; Uijlenhoet, Remko

2017-04-01

Crowdsourcing as a method to obtain and apply vast datasets is rapidly becoming prominent in meteorology, especially for urban areas where traditional measurements are scarce. Earlier studies showed that smartphone battery temperature readings allow for estimating the daily and city-wide air temperature via a straightforward heat transfer model. This study advances these model estimations by studying spatially and temporally smaller scales. The accuracy of temperature retrievals as a function of the number of battery readings is also studied. An extensive dataset of over 10 million battery temperature readings is available for São Paulo (Brazil), for estimating hourly and daily air temperatures. The air temperature estimates are validated with air temperature measurements from a WMO station, an Urban Fluxnet site, and crowdsourced data from 7 hobby meteorologists' private weather stations. On a daily basis temperature estimates are good, and we show they improve by optimizing model parameters for neighbourhood scales as categorized in Local Climate Zones. Temperature differences between Local Climate Zones can be distinguished from smartphone battery temperatures. When validating the model for hourly temperature estimates, initial results are poor, but are vastly improved by using a diurnally varying parameter function in the heat transfer model rather than one fixed value for the entire day. The obtained results show the potential of large crowdsourced datasets in meteorological studies, and the value of smartphones as a measuring platform when routine observations are lacking.

A better understanding of long-range temporal dependence of traffic flow time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Shuo; Wang, Xingmin; Sun, Haowei; Zhang, Yi; Li, Li

2018-02-01

Long-range temporal dependence is an important research perspective for modelling of traffic flow time series. Various methods have been proposed to depict the long-range temporal dependence, including autocorrelation function analysis, spectral analysis and fractal analysis. However, few researches have studied the daily temporal dependence (i.e. the similarity between different daily traffic flow time series), which can help us better understand the long-range temporal dependence, such as the origin of crossover phenomenon. Moreover, considering both types of dependence contributes to establishing more accurate model and depicting the properties of traffic flow time series. In this paper, we study the properties of daily temporal dependence by simple average method and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) based method. Meanwhile, we also study the long-range temporal dependence by Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) and Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA). The results show that both the daily and long-range temporal dependence exert considerable influence on the traffic flow series. The DFA results reveal that the daily temporal dependence creates crossover phenomenon when estimating the Hurst exponent which depicts the long-range temporal dependence. Furthermore, through the comparison of the DFA test, PCA-based method turns out to be a better method to extract the daily temporal dependence especially when the difference between days is significant.

Climate Change Simulations Predict Altered Biotic Response in a Thermally Heterogeneous Stream System

PubMed Central

Westhoff, Jacob T.; Paukert, Craig P.

2014-01-01

Climate change is predicted to increase water temperatures in many lotic systems, but little is known about how changes in air temperature affect lotic systems heavily influenced by groundwater. Our objectives were to document spatial variation in temperature for spring-fed Ozark streams in Southern Missouri USA, create a spatially explicit model of mean daily water temperature, and use downscaled climate models to predict the number of days meeting suitable stream temperature for three aquatic species of concern to conservation and management. Longitudinal temperature transects and stationary temperature loggers were used in the Current and Jacks Fork Rivers during 2012 to determine spatial and temporal variability of water temperature. Groundwater spring influence affected river water temperatures in both winter and summer, but springs that contributed less than 5% of the main stem discharge did not affect river temperatures beyond a few hundred meters downstream. A multiple regression model using variables related to season, mean daily air temperature, and a spatial influence factor (metric to account for groundwater influence) was a strong predictor of mean daily water temperature (r2 = 0.98; RMSE = 0.82). Data from two downscaled climate simulations under the A2 emissions scenario were used to predict daily water temperatures for time steps of 1995, 2040, 2060, and 2080. By 2080, peak numbers of optimal growth temperature days for smallmouth bass are expected to shift to areas with more spring influence, largemouth bass are expected to experience more optimal growth days (21 – 317% increase) regardless of spring influence, and Ozark hellbenders may experience a reduction in the number of optimal growth days in areas with the highest spring influence. Our results provide a framework for assessing fine-scale (10 s m) thermal heterogeneity and predict shifts in thermal conditions at the watershed and reach scale. PMID:25356982

Preliminary Assessment Report for U.S. Army Reserve Center, Manitowoc, Wisconsin

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-12-01

cold, with mean maximum daily temperatures I around 30°F and daily temperatures typically in lower teens . Mean annual precipitation is around 30 inches...of them. The drums are accessible to anyone. We worry about the potential of vandalism . The AMSA does not have any other space to store them. Joan

Assessment of an apparent relationship between availability of soluble carbohydrates and reduced nitrogen during floral initiation in tobacco

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raper, C. D. Jr; Thomas, J. F.; Tolley-Henry, L.; Rideout, J. W.; Raper CD, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

1988-01-01

Daily relative accumulation rate of soluble carbohydrates (RARS) and reduced nitrogen (RARN) in the shoot, as estimates of source strength, were compared with daily relative growth rates (RGR) of the shoot, as an estimate of sink demand, during floral transformation in apical meristems of tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum 'NC 2326') grown at day/night temperatures of 18/14, 22/18, 26/22, 30/26, and 34/30 C. Source strength was assumed to exceed sink demand for either carbohydrates or nitrogen when the ratio of RARS/RGR or RARN/RGR was greater than unity, and sink demand was assumed to exceed source strength when the ratio was less than unity. Time of floral initiation, which was delayed up to 21 days with increases in temperature over the experimental range, was associated with intervals in which source strength of either carbohydrate or nitrogen exceeded sink demand, while sink demand for the other exceeded source strength. Floral initiation was not observed during intervals in which source strengths of both carbohydrates and nitrogen were greater than or less than sink demand. These results indicate that floral initiation is responsive to an imbalance in the relative availabilities of carbohydrate and nitrogen.

Solar Irradiance from GOES Albedo performance in a Hydrologic Model Simulation of Snowmelt Runoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumargo, E.; Cayan, D. R.; McGurk, B. J.

2015-12-01

In many hydrologic modeling applications, solar radiation has been parameterized using commonly available measures, such as the daily temperature range, due to scarce in situ solar radiation measurement network. However, these parameterized estimates often produce significant biases. Here we test hourly solar irradiance derived from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) visible albedo product, using several established algorithms. Focusing on the Sierra Nevada and White Mountain in California, we compared the GOES irradiance and that from a traditional temperature-based algorithm with incoming irradiance from pyranometers at 19 stations. The GOES based estimates yielded 21-27% reduction in root-mean-squared error (average over 19 sites). The derived irradiance is then prescribed as an input to Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). We constrain our experiment to the Tuolumne River watershed and focus our attention on the winter and spring of 1996-2014. A root-mean-squared error reduction of 2-6% in daily inflow to Hetch Hetchy at the lower end of the Tuolumne catchment was achieved by incorporating the insolation estimates at only 8 out of 280 Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) within the basin. Our ongoing work endeavors to apply satellite-derived irradiance at each individual HRU.

Dynamics of carbon dioxide exchange of a wheat community grown in a semi-closed environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Corey, Kenneth A.

1989-01-01

A wheat (Triticum aestivum Yecora Rojo) community was grown in the semi-closed conditions of the NASA/KSC Biomass Production Chamber (BPC). Experiments were conducted to determine whole community carbon dioxide exchange rates as influenced by growth and development, carbon dioxide concentration, time within the photoperiod, irradiance, and temperature. Plants were grown at a population of about 1500 per sq meter using a 20 hour light/4 hour dark daily regime. Light was supplied by HPS vapor lamps and irradiance was maintained in the range of 590 to 675 mu mol per sq meter. The temperature regime was 20 C light/16 C dark and nutrients were supplied hydroponically as a thin film. Fractional interception of PPF by the community increased rapidly during growth reaching a maximum of 0.96, 24 days after planting. This time corresponded to canopy closure and maximum rates of net photosynthesis (NP). Net daily CO2 utilization rates were calculated to day 48 and a 4th order regression equation integrated to obtain total moles of CO2 fixed by the community. This procedure may be useful for monitoring and prediction of biomass yields in a closed ecology life support system (CELSS).

Cold climate specialization: adaptive covariation between metabolic rate and thermoregulation in pregnant vipers.

PubMed

Lourdais, Olivier; Guillon, Michaël; Denardo, Dale; Blouin-Demers, Gabriel

2013-07-02

We compared thermoregulatory strategies during pregnancy in two congeneric viperid snakes (Vipera berus and Vipera aspis) with parapatric geographic ranges. V. berus is a boreal specialist with the largest known distribution among terrestrial snakes while V. aspis is a south-European species. Despite contrasted climatic affinities, the two species displayed identical thermal preferences (Tset) in a laboratory thermal gradient. Under identical natural conditions, however, V. berus was capable of maintaining Tset for longer periods, especially when the weather was constraining. Consistent with the metabolic cold adaptation hypothesis, V. berus displayed higher standard metabolic rate at all temperatures considered. We used the thermal dependence of metabolic rate to calculate daily metabolic profiles from body temperature under natural conditions. The boreal specialist experienced higher daily metabolic rate and minimized gestation duration chiefly because of differences in the metabolic reaction norms, but also superior thermoregulatory efficiency. Under cold climates, thermal constraints should make precise thermoregulation costly. However, a shift in the metabolic reaction norm may compensate for thermal constraints and modify the cost-benefit balance of thermoregulation. Covariation between metabolic rate and thermoregulation efficiency is likely an important adaptation to cold climates. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Metabolic heat production, heat loss and the circadian rhythm of body temperature in the rat.

PubMed

Refinetti, Roberto

2003-05-01

Metabolic heat production (calculated from oxygen consumption), dry heat loss (measured in a calorimeter) and body temperature (measured by telemetry) were recorded simultaneously at 6 min intervals over five consecutive days in rats maintained in constant darkness. Robust circadian rhythmicity (confirmed by chi square periodogram analysis) was observed in all three variables. The rhythm of heat production was phase-advanced by about half an hour in relation to the body temperature rhythm, whereas the rhythm of heat loss was phase-delayed by about half an hour. The balance of heat production and heat loss exhibited a daily oscillation 180 deg out of phase with the oscillation in body temperature. Computations indicated that the amount of heat associated with the generation of the body temperature rhythm (1.6 kJ) corresponds to less than 1 % of the total daily energy budget (172 kJ) in this species. Because of the small magnitude of the fraction of heat balance associated with the body temperature rhythm, it is likely that the daily oscillation in heat balance has a very slow effect on body temperature, thus accounting for the 180 deg phase difference between the rhythms of heat balance and body temperature.

Thermal characteristics of wild and captive Micronesian Kingfisher nesting habitats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kesler, Dylan C.; Haig, Susan M.

2004-01-01

To provide information for managing the captive population of endangered Guam Micronesian kingfishers (Halcyon cinnamomina cinnamomina), four biologically relevant thermal metrics were compared among captive facilities on the United States mainland and habitats used by wild Micronesian kingfishers on the island of Pohnpei (H. c. reichenbachii), Federated States of Micronesia. Additionally, aviaries where kingfishers laid eggs were compared to those in which birds did not attempt to breed. Compared to aviaries, habitats used by wild Pohnpei kingfishers had 3.2A?C higher daily maximum and minimum temperatures and the proportion of time when temperatures were in the birds' thermoneutral zone was 45% greater. No differences were found in the magnitude of temperature fluctuation in captive and wild environments. In captive environments in which birds bred, daily maximum temperatures were 2.1A?C higher and temperatures were within the thermoneutral zone 25% more often than in the aviaries where the kingfishers did not breed. No differences were found in the magnitude of temperature fluctuation or the daily minimum temperature. Results suggest that the thermal environment has the potential to influence reproduction, and that consideration should be given to increasing temperatures in captive breeding facilities to improve propagation of the endangered Micronesian kingfisher.

Relationship of ruminal temperature with parturition and estrus of beef cows.

PubMed

Cooper-Prado, M J; Long, N M; Wright, E C; Goad, C L; Wettemann, R P

2011-04-01

Spring-calving Angus cows (n = 30) were used to evaluate changes in ruminal temperature (RuT) related to parturition and estrus. Cows were synchronized and artificially inseminated with semen from a single sire. Temperature boluses were placed in the rumen at 7.0 ± 0.2 mo of gestation. Boluses were programmed to transmit RuT every 15 min. Cows (BW = 623 ± 44 kg, BCS = 4.9 ± 0.4) calved during 3 wk, and estrus was synchronized at 77 ± 7 d after calving with PGF(2α). Cows were observed every 12 h to detect estrus. Daily average ambient temperatures ranged from 2 to 22 °C during parturition (February to March) and 17 to 25 °C during estrus (May to June). Ruminal temperature from 7 d before to 3 d after parturition and 2 d before to 2 d after visual detection of estrus was analyzed using the MIXED procedure. Ruminal temperatures <37.72 °C were attributed to water consumption and excluded from analyses. Day did not influence (P = 0.36) RuT from d -2 to -7 before parturition (38.94 ± 0.05 °C). Ruminal temperature decreased (P < 0.001) from d -2 to d -1 before parturition (38.88 ± 0.05 to 38.55 ± 0.05 °C, respectively). Ruminal temperature was not influenced (P = 0.23) by day from 1 d before to 3 d after parturition (38.49 ± 0.05 °C). Ruminal temperature at 0 to 8 h after detection of estrus (38.98 ± 0.09 °C) was greater (P < 0.001) compared with RuT at the same daily hour of the day before (38.37 ± 0.11 °C) or the day after estrus (38.30 ± 0.09 °C). Ambient temperature did not influence (P > 0.30) RuT at parturition or estrus. Ruminal temperature decreased the day before parturition and increased at estrus in spring-calving beef cows and has potential use as a predictor of parturition and estrus.

Temperature Observation Time and Type Influence Estimates of Heat-Related Mortality in Seven U.S. Cities

PubMed Central

Davis, Robert E.; Hondula, David M.; Patel, Anjali P.

2015-01-01

Background: Extreme heat is a leading weather-related cause of mortality in the United States, but little guidance is available regarding how temperature variable selection impacts heat–mortality relationships. Objectives: We examined how the strength of the relationship between daily heat-related mortality and temperature varies as a function of temperature observation time, lag, and calculation method. Methods: Long time series of daily mortality counts and hourly temperature for seven U.S. cities with different climates were examined using a generalized additive model. The temperature effect was modeled separately for each hour of the day (with up to 3-day lags) along with different methods of calculating daily maximum, minimum, and mean temperature. We estimated the temperature effect on mortality for each variable by comparing the 99th versus 85th temperature percentiles, as determined from the annual time series. Results: In three northern cities (Boston, MA; Philadelphia, PA; and Seattle, WA) that appeared to have the greatest sensitivity to heat, hourly estimates were consistent with a diurnal pattern in the heat-mortality response, with strongest associations for afternoon or maximum temperature at lag 0 (day of death) or afternoon and evening of lag 1 (day before death). In warmer, southern cities, stronger associations were found with morning temperatures, but overall the relationships were weaker. The strongest temperature–mortality relationships were associated with maximum temperature, although mean temperature results were comparable. Conclusions: There were systematic and substantial differences in the association between temperature and mortality based on the time and type of temperature observation. Because the strongest hourly temperature–mortality relationships were not always found at times typically associated with daily maximum temperatures, temperature variables should be selected independently for each study location. In general, heat-mortality was more closely coupled to afternoon and maximum temperatures in most cities we examined, particularly those typically prone to heat-related mortality. Citation: Davis RE, Hondula DM, Patel AP. 2016. Temperature observation time and type influence estimates of heat-related mortality in seven U.S. cities. Environ Health Perspect 124:795–804; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509946 PMID:26636734

Analysis, development and testing of a fixed tilt solar collector employing reversible Vee-Trough reflectors and vacuum tube receivers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Selcuk, M. K.

1979-01-01

The Vee-Trough/Vacuum Tube Collector (VTVTC) aimed to improve the efficiency and reduce the cost of collectors assembled from evacuated tube receivers. The VTVTC was analyzed rigorously and a mathematical model was developed to calculate the optical performance of the vee-trough concentrator and the thermal performance of the evacuated tube receiver. A test bed was constructed to verify the mathematical analyses and compare reflectors made out of glass, Alzak and aluminized GEB Teflon. Tests were run at temperatures ranging from 95 to 180 C during the months of April, May, June, July and August 1977. Vee-trough collector efficiencies of 35-40 per cent were observed at an operating temperature of about 175 C. Test results compared well with the calculated values. Test data covering a complete day are presented for selected dates throughout the test season. Predicted daily useful heat collection and efficiency values are presented for a year's duration at operation temperatures ranging from 65 to 230 C. Estimated collector costs and resulting thermal energy costs are presented. Analytical and experimental results are discussed along with an economic evaluation.

Simulation of daily pesticide concentrations from watershed characteristics and monthly climatic data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchia, Aldo V.; Crawford, Charles G.

2006-01-01

A time-series model was developed to simulate daily pesticide concentrations for streams in the coterminous United States. The model was based on readily available information on pesticide use, climatic variability, and watershed charac-teristics and was used to simulate concentrations for four herbicides [atrazine, ethyldipropylthiocarbamate (EPTC), metolachlor, and trifluralin] and three insecticides (carbofuran, ethoprop, and fonofos) that represent a range of physical and chemical properties, application methods, national application amounts, and areas of use in the United States. The time-series model approximates the probability distributions, seasonal variability, and serial correlation characteristics in daily pesticide concentration data from a national network of monitoring stations. The probability distribution of concentrations for a particular pesticide and station was estimated using the Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) model. The WARP model, which was developed in previous studies to estimate the probability distribution, was based on selected nationally available watershed-characteristics data, such as pesticide use and soil characteristics. Normality transformations were used to ensure that the annual percentiles for the simulated concentrations agree closely with the percentiles estimated from the WARP model. Seasonal variability in the transformed concentrations was maintained by relating the transformed concentration to precipitation and temperature data from the United States Historical Climatology Network. The monthly precipitation and temperature values were estimated for the centroids of each watershed. Highly significant relations existed between the transformed concentrations, concurrent monthly precipitation, and concurrent and lagged monthly temperature. The relations were consistent among the different pesticides and indicated the transformed concentrations generally increased as precipitation increased but the rate of increase depended on a temperature-dependent growing-season effect. Residual variability of the transformed concentrations, after removal of the effects of precipitation and temperature, was partitioned into a signal (systematic variability that is related from one day to the next) and noise (random variability that is not related from one day to the next). Variograms were used to evaluate measurement error, seasonal variability, and serial correlation of the historical data. The variogram analysis indicated substantial noise resulted, at least in part, from measurement errors (the differences between the actual concen-trations and the laboratory concentrations). The variogram analysis also indicated the presence of a strongly correlated signal, with an exponentially decaying serial correlation function and a correlation time scale (the time required for the correlation to decay to e-1 equals 0.37) that ranged from about 18 to 66 days, depending on the pesticide type. Simulated daily pesticide concentrations from the time-series model indicated the simulated concentrations for the stations located in the northeastern quadrant of the United States where most of the monitoring stations are located generally were in good agreement with the data. The model neither consistently overestimated or underestimated concentrations for streams that are located in this quadrant and the magnitude and timing of high or low concentrations generally coincided reasonably well with the data. However, further data collection and model development may be necessary to determine whether the model should be used for areas for which few historical data are available.

A statistical model for estimating stream temperatures in the Salmon and Clearwater River basins, central Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donato, Mary M.

2002-01-01

A water-quality standard for temperature is critical for the protection of threatened and endangered salmonids, which need cold, clean water to sustain life. The Idaho Department of Environmental Quality has established temperature standards to protect salmonids, yet little is known about the normal range of temperatures of most Idaho streams. A single temperature standard for all streams does not take into account the natural temperature variation of streams or the existence of naturally warm waters. To address these issues and to help the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality revise the existing State temperature standards for aquatic life, temperature data from more than 200 streams and rivers in the salmon and Clearwater River Basins were collected. From these data, a statistical model was developed for estimating stream temperatures on the basis of subbasin and site characteristics and climatic factors. Stream temperatures were monitored hourly for approximately 58 days during July, August, and September 2000 at relatively undisturbed sites in subbasins in the Salmon and Clearwater River Basins in central Idaho. The monitored subbasins vary widely in size, elevation, drainage area, vegetation cover, and other characteristics. The resulting data were analyzed for statistical correlations with subbasin and site characteristics to establish the most important factors affecting stream temperature. Maximum daily average stream temperatures were strongly correlated with elevation and total upstream drainage area; weaker correlations were noted with stream depth and width and aver-age subbasin slope. Stream temperatures also were correlated with certain types of vegetation cover, but these variables were not significant in the final model. The model takes into account seasonal temperature fluctuations, site elevation, total drainage area, average subbasin slope, and the deviation of daily average air temperature from a 30-year normal daily average air temperature. The goodness-of-fit of the model varies with day of the year. Overall, temperatures can be estimated with 95-percent confidence to within approximately plus or minus 4 degrees Celsius. The model performed well when tested on independent stream-temperature data previously collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and other agencies. Although the model provides insight into the natural temperature potential of a wide variety of streams and rivers in the Salmon and Clearwater River Basins, it has limitations. It is based on data collected in only one summer, during which temperatures were higher and streamflows were lower than normal. The effects of changes in streamflow on the effectiveness of the model are not known. Because the model is based on data from minimally disturbed or undisturbed streams, it should not be applied to streams known to be significantly affected by human activities such as disturbance of the streambed, diversion and return of water by irrigation ditches, and removal of riparian vegetation. Finally, because the model is based on data from streams in the Salmon and Clearwater River Basins and reflects climatological and landscape characteristics of those basins, it should not be applied to streams outside this region.

Projections of Seasonal Patterns in Temperature- Related Deaths for Manhattan, New York

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2013-01-01

Global average temperatures have been rising for the past half-century, and the warming trend has accelerated in recent decades. Further warming is expected over the next few decades, with significant regional variations. These warming trends will probably result in more frequent, intense and persistent periods of hot temperatures in summer, and generally higher temperatures in winter. Daily death counts in cities increase markedly when temperatures reach levels that are very high relative to what is normal in a given location. Relatively cold temperatures also seem to carry risk. Rising temperatures may result in more heat-related mortality but may also reduce cold-related mortality, and the net impact on annual mortality remains uncertain. Here we use 16 downscaled global climate models and two emissions scenarios to estimate present and future seasonal patterns in temperature-related mortality in Manhattan, New York. All 32 projections yielded warm-season increases and cold-season decreases in temperature-related mortality, with positive net annual temperature-related deaths in all cases. Monthly analyses showed that the largest percentage increases may occur in May and September. These results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns.

Increasing ambient temperature reduces emotional well-being.

PubMed

Noelke, Clemens; McGovern, Mark; Corsi, Daniel J; Jimenez, Marcia P; Stern, Ari; Wing, Ian Sue; Berkman, Lisa

2016-11-01

This study examines the impact of ambient temperature on emotional well-being in the U.S. population aged 18+. The U.S. is an interesting test case because of its resources, technology and variation in climate across different areas, which also allows us to examine whether adaptation to different climates could weaken or even eliminate the impact of heat on well-being. Using survey responses from 1.9 million Americans over the period from 2008 to 2013, we estimate the effect of temperature on well-being from exogenous day-to-day temperature variation within respondents' area of residence and test whether this effect varies across areas with different climates. We find that increasing temperatures significantly reduce well-being. Compared to average daily temperatures in the 50-60°F (10-16°C) range, temperatures above 70°F (21°C) reduce positive emotions (e.g. joy, happiness), increase negative emotions (e.g. stress, anger), and increase fatigue (feeling tired, low energy). These effects are particularly strong among less educated and older Americans. However, there is no consistent evidence that heat effects on well-being differ across areas with mild and hot summers, suggesting limited variation in heat adaptation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Acute effect of daily mean temperature on ischemic heart disease mortality: a multivariable meta-analysis from 12 counties across Hubei Province, China].

PubMed

Zhang, Y Q; Yu, C H; Bao, J Z

2016-11-06

Objective: To evaluate the acute effects of daily mean temperature on ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in 12 counties across Hubei Province, China. Methods: We obtained the daily IHD mortality data and meteorological data of the 12 counties for 2009-2012. The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to estimate the community-specific association between mean temperature and IHD mortality. A multivariate meta-analysis was then applied to pool the community-specific relationship between temperature and IHD mortality, and the effects of cold and heat on mortality risk. Results: In 2009-2012, of the 6 702 012 people included in this study, 19 688 died of IHD. A daily average of 1.2 IHD deaths occurred in each community. The annual average mean temperature was 16.6 ℃ during the study period. A nonlinear temperature-IHD mortality relationship was observed for different cumulative lag days at the provincial level. The pooled heat effect was acute but attenuated within 2 days. In contrast, the cold effect was delayed and persisted for more than 2 weeks. Compared with a reference temperature (25 th percentile of mean temperature during the study period, P 25 ), the cold effect for P 10 of mean temperature was associated with IHD mortality, the RR (95% CI ) was 1.084 (1.008-1.167) at lag 0-14, and 1.149 (1.053-1.253) at lag 0-21. For the P 1 cold temperature, the mortality RR (95% CI ) values were 1.116 (0.975-1.276) and 1.220 (1.04-1.428), respectively. We found no significant association between high temperatures and IHD mortality in the present study at different lag days. Conclusion: In Hubei Province, low temperature was associated with increased IHD mortality risk, and cold effects lasted for several days; no significant effect of high temperature was observed.

Local-scale spatial modelling for interpolating climatic temperature variables to predict agricultural plant suitability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, Mathew A.; Hall, Andrew; Kidd, Darren; Minansy, Budiman

2016-05-01

Assessment of local spatial climatic variability is important in the planning of planting locations for horticultural crops. This study investigated three regression-based calibration methods (i.e. traditional versus two optimized methods) to relate short-term 12-month data series from 170 temperature loggers and 4 weather station sites with data series from nearby long-term Australian Bureau of Meteorology climate stations. The techniques trialled to interpolate climatic temperature variables, such as frost risk, growing degree days (GDDs) and chill hours, were regression kriging (RK), regression trees (RTs) and random forests (RFs). All three calibration methods produced accurate results, with the RK-based calibration method delivering the most accurate validation measures: coefficients of determination ( R 2) of 0.92, 0.97 and 0.95 and root-mean-square errors of 1.30, 0.80 and 1.31 °C, for daily minimum, daily maximum and hourly temperatures, respectively. Compared with the traditional method of calibration using direct linear regression between short-term and long-term stations, the RK-based calibration method improved R 2 and reduced root-mean-square error (RMSE) by at least 5 % and 0.47 °C for daily minimum temperature, 1 % and 0.23 °C for daily maximum temperature and 3 % and 0.33 °C for hourly temperature. Spatial modelling indicated insignificant differences between the interpolation methods, with the RK technique tending to be the slightly better method due to the high degree of spatial autocorrelation between logger sites.

Resting metabolic expenditure as a potential source of variation in growth rates of the sagebrush lizard.

PubMed

Sears, Michael W

2005-02-01

Along an elevational gradient on SW Utah, sagebrush lizards (Sceloporus graciosus) exhibit an unexpected pattern of growth. Lizards from a high elevation population grow faster than lizards from two populations at lower elevations despite shorter daily and seasonal activity. Results from a common environment study of growth suggest that the differences in growth are not due to adaptation to local environmental conditions. In this study, I test the hypothesis that higher growth rates in lizards from high elevation may be attributable to reduced resting metabolic expenditure compared to that of lizards from populations at two lower elevations. Resting metabolic rates were measured for individuals from each of the study populations across different times of day and over a broad range of temperatures. Under the same laboratory conditions, field-caught lizards from the high elevation population exhibited lower metabolic rates when compared to lizards from lower elevations. Daily resting metabolic expenditures were calculated using the observed metabolic rates coupled with estimates of daily activity. Daily resting metabolic expenditure was 50% greater for individuals from the two lower elevation populations, which could result in 12.5% more energy that could be potentially allocated to growth for lizards from high elevation. Such energetic savings may be able to explain differences in the patterns of growth observed in nature.

Influence of air temperature on electric consumption in Moscow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lokoshchenko, Mikhail A.; Nikolayeva, Nataliya A.

2017-04-01

For the first time for mid latitudes and with the use of long-term data of Moscow State University Meteorological observatory a dependence of electric power consumption E on the air temperature T has been studied for each separate day for the period from 1990 to 2015 (totally - 9496 values). As a result, it is shown that the relation is in general decreasing in conditions of cold Moscow region: energy consumption as a rule reduces with a rise of the temperature. However, in time of severe frosts the energy consumption increasing goes to nothing due to special measures for energy savings whereas during heat wave episodes of extremely hot weather (especially in summer of 2010) an opposite tendency appears to the energy consumption increase with the increase of the air temperature due to additional consumption for the air conditioning. This relation between E and T is statistically significant with extremely high confidence probability (more than 0.999). The optimum temperature for the energy saving is 18 ˚C. The air temperature limit values in Moscow during last decades have been discussed. Daily-averaged T varied from -28.0 ˚C in January of 2006 to +31.4 ˚C in August of 2010 so a range of this parameter is almost 60 ˚C. Catastrophic heat wave in 2010 appeared as a secondary summer maximum of the electric consumption annual course. The relation between E and T for separate years demonstrates strong weekly periodicity at the dynamics of E daily values. As a result statistical distribution of E daily values for separate years is bimodal. One its mode is connected with working-days and another one - with non-work days (Saturday, Sunday and holidays) when consumption is much less. In recent time weekly cycle at the electric consumption became weaker due to total fall of industry in Moscow. In recent years the dependence of energy consumption on the air temperature generally became stronger - probably due to changes of its structure (growth of non-industrial users' contribution). A relation of energy consumption with the relative humidity is absent whereas a relation of energy consumption with the water vapor pressure e indirectly reflects a dependence of this parameter on the air temperature. Use of multiple and partial correlation between E, T and e confirmed an absence of direct relation between energy consumption and water vapor pressure. Authors are much grateful to System Operator of Unified Energy System of Russia for given data about electric power consumption in Moscow region.

Meteorological factors, air pollutants, and emergency department visits for otitis media: a time series study.

PubMed

Gestro, Massimo; Condemi, Vincenzo; Bardi, Luisella; Fantino, Claudio; Solimene, Umberto

2017-10-01

AbstractOtitis media (OM) is a very common disease in children, which results in a significant economic burden to the healthcare system for hospital-based outpatient departments, emergency departments (EDs), unscheduled medical examinations, and antibiotic prescriptions. The aim of this retrospective observational study is to investigate the association between climate variables, air pollutants, and OM visits observed in the 2007-2010 period at the ED of Cuneo, Italy. Measures of meteorological parameters (temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind) and outdoor air pollutants (particulate matter, ozone, nitrous dioxide) were analyzed at two statistical stages and in several specific steps (crude and adjusted models) according to Poisson's regression. Response variables included daily examinations for age groups 0-3, 0-6, and 0-18. Control variables included upper respiratory infections (URI), flu (FLU), and several calendar factors. A statistical procedure was implemented to capture any delayed effects. Results show a moderate association for temperature (T), age 0-3, and 0-6 with P < 0.05, as well as nitrous dioxide (NO 2 ) with P < 0.005 at age 0-18. Results of subsequent models point out to URI as an important control variable. No statistical association was observed for other pollutants and meteorological variables. The dose-response models (DLNM-final stage) implemented separately on a daily and hourly basis point out to an association between temperature (daily model) and RR 1.44 at age 0-3, CI 1.11-1.88 (lag time 0-1 days) and RR 1.43, CI 1.05-1.94 (lag time 0-3 days). The hourly model confirms a specific dose-response effect for T with RR 1.20, CI 1.04-1.38 (lag time range from 0 to 11 to 0-15 h) and for NO 2 with RR 1.03, CI 1.01-1.05 (lag time range from 0 to 8 to 0-15 h). These results support the hypothesis that the clinical context of URI may be an important risk factor in the onset of OM diagnosed at ED level. The study highlights the relevance of URI as a control variable to be included in the statistical analysis in association with meteorological factors and air pollutants. The study also points out to a moderate association of OM with low temperatures and NO 2 , with specific risk factors for this variable early in life. Further studies are needed to confirm these findings, particularly with respect to air pollutants in larger urban environments.

Meteorological factors, air pollutants, and emergency department visits for otitis media: a time series study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gestro, Massimo; Condemi, Vincenzo; Bardi, Luisella; Fantino, Claudio; Solimene, Umberto

2017-10-01

Abstract Otitis media (OM) is a very common disease in children, which results in a significant economic burden to the healthcare system for hospital-based outpatient departments, emergency departments (EDs), unscheduled medical examinations, and antibiotic prescriptions. The aim of this retrospective observational study is to investigate the association between climate variables, air pollutants, and OM visits observed in the 2007-2010 period at the ED of Cuneo, Italy. Measures of meteorological parameters (temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind) and outdoor air pollutants (particulate matter, ozone, nitrous dioxide) were analyzed at two statistical stages and in several specific steps (crude and adjusted models) according to Poisson's regression. Response variables included daily examinations for age groups 0-3, 0-6, and 0-18. Control variables included upper respiratory infections (URI), flu (FLU), and several calendar factors. A statistical procedure was implemented to capture any delayed effects. Results show a moderate association for temperature ( T), age 0-3, and 0-6 with P < 0.05, as well as nitrous dioxide (NO2) with P < 0.005 at age 0-18. Results of subsequent models point out to URI as an important control variable. No statistical association was observed for other pollutants and meteorological variables. The dose-response models (DLNM—final stage) implemented separately on a daily and hourly basis point out to an association between temperature (daily model) and RR 1.44 at age 0-3, CI 1.11-1.88 (lag time 0-1 days) and RR 1.43, CI 1.05-1.94 (lag time 0-3 days). The hourly model confirms a specific dose-response effect for T with RR 1.20, CI 1.04-1.38 (lag time range from 0 to 11 to 0-15 h) and for NO2 with RR 1.03, CI 1.01-1.05 (lag time range from 0 to 8 to 0-15 h). These results support the hypothesis that the clinical context of URI may be an important risk factor in the onset of OM diagnosed at ED level. The study highlights the relevance of URI as a control variable to be included in the statistical analysis in association with meteorological factors and air pollutants. The study also points out to a moderate association of OM with low temperatures and NO2, with specific risk factors for this variable early in life. Further studies are needed to confirm these findings, particularly with respect to air pollutants in larger urban environments.

Short-term Rn-222 concentration changes in underground spaces with limited air exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fijałkowska-Lichwa, Lidia; Przylibski, Tadeusz A.

2010-05-01

Authors conducted research on radon concentration in two underground structures located in the vicinity of Kletno (Sudety Mts., SW Poland), which are accessible for visitors. One of these structures is Niedźwiedzia (Bear) Cave, and the second one is the part of former uranium mine - Fluorite Adit. Both selected underground structures are characterized by almost constant temperature, changing within the range from +5 to +7° C and also constant relative humidity, close to 100%. Both these parameters testify that air exchange with the atmosphere is very limited. Air exchange is limited particularly in Niedźwiedzia Cave, which microclimate is protected i.e. by applying of locks at the entrance and exit of tourist route. The measurements were conducted between 16.05.2008. and 15.11.2009., by the use of a new Polish equipment - SRDN-3 devices with semiconductor detector. SRDN-3 device records every hour radon concentration as well as atmospheric parameters - relative humidity and temperature. At the same time authors conducted measurements of basic parameters in the open atmosphere close to Niedźwiedzia Cave. Obtained results of atmospheric parameters measurements may be used for both underground structures; because they are located within the distance of about 1 km. Atmospheric parameters were measured by the use of automatic weather station VantagePro2. On the base of conducted research authors corroborate, that the differences of radon concentration in both underground structures reach three orders of magnitude during a year. In Niedźwiedzia Cave these values are in the range from below 88 Bq/m3 (detection limit of the SRDN-3 device) up to 12 kBq/m3. Related values in Fluorite Adit are between < 88 Bq/m3 and 35 kBq/m3. It was observed also the different course of daily radon concentration changes in both structures. Additionally, authors registered that daily course of radon concentration changes differs due to season of the year. Such changes are observed in both structures. The reasons of these changes are probably connected with the way of air exchange between interior of the structure and the atmosphere. In both cases they are determined by atmospheric air temperature changes in relation with the temperature of the air inside the cave or adit. Authors have been still working on this problem. We can also say, that the character of daily radon concentration changes inside both examined structures differ from typical changes noted in dwelling houses.

Evaluation and trends of land cover, streamflow, and water quality in the North Canadian River Basin near Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, 1968–2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esralew, Rachel A.; Andrews, William J.; Smith, S. Jerrod

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Oklahoma City, collected water-quality samples from the North Canadian River at the streamflow-gaging station near Harrah, Oklahoma (Harrah station), since 1968, and at an upstream streamflow-gaging station at Britton Road at Oklahoma City, Oklahoma (Britton Road station), since 1988. Statistical summaries and frequencies of detection of water-quality constituent data from water samples, and summaries of water-quality constituent data from continuous water-quality monitors are described from the start of monitoring at those stations through 2009. Differences in concentrations between stations and time trends for selected constituents were evaluated to determine the effects of: (1) wastewater effluent discharges, (2) changes in land-cover, (3) changes in streamflow, (4) increases in urban development, and (5) other anthropogenic sources of contamination on water quality in the North Canadian River downstream from Oklahoma City. Land-cover changes between 1992 and 2001 in the basin between the Harrah station and Lake Overholser upstream included an increase in developed/barren land-cover and a decrease in pasture/hay land cover. There were no significant trends in median and greater streamflows at either streamflow-gaging station, but there were significant downward trends in lesser streamflows, especially after 1999, which may have been associated with decreases in precipitation between 1999 and 2009 or construction of low-water dams on the river upstream from Oklahoma City in 1999. Concentrations of dissolved chloride, lead, cadmium, and chlordane most frequently exceeded the Criterion Continuous Concentration (a water-quality standard for protection of aquatic life) in water-quality samples collected at both streamflow-gaging stations. Visual trends in annual frequencies of detection were investigated for selected pesticides with frequencies of detection greater than 10 percent in all water samples collected at both streamflow-gaging stations. Annual frequencies of detection of 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid and bromacil increased with time. Annual frequencies of detection of atrazine, chlorpyrifos, diazinon, dichlorprop, and lindane decreased with time. Dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were significantly greater in water samples collected at the Harrah station than at the Britton Road station, whereas specific conductance was greater at the Britton Road station. Concentrations of dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, and fecal coliform bacteria were not significantly different between stations. Daily minimum, mean, and maximum specific conductance collected from continuous water-quality monitors were significantly greater at the Britton Road station than in water samples collected at the Harrah station. Daily minimum, maximum, and diurnal fluctuations of water temperature collected from continuous water-quality monitors were significantly greater at the Harrah station than at the Britton Road station. The daily maximums and diurnal range of dissolved oxygen concentrations were significantly greater in water samples collected at the Britton Road station than at the Harrah station, but daily mean dissolved oxygen concentrations in water at those streamflow-gaging stations were not significantly different. Daily mean and diurnal water temperature ranges increased with time at the Britton Road and Harrah streamflow-gaging stations, whereas daily mean and diurnal specific conductance ranges decreased with time at both streamflow-gaging stations from 1988–2009. Daily minimum dissolved oxygen concentrations collected from continuous water-quality monitors more frequently indicated hypoxic conditions at the Harrah station than at the Britton Road station after 1999. Fecal coliform bacteria counts in water decreased slightly from 1988–2009 at the Britton Road station. The Seasonal Kendall's tau test indicated significant downward trends in

Trends in record-breaking temperatures for the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowe, Clinton M.; Derry, Logan E.

2012-08-01

In an unchanging climate, record-breaking temperatures are expected to decrease in frequency over time, as established records become increasingly more difficult to surpass. This inherent trend in the number of record-breaking events confounds the interpretation of actual trends in the presence of any underlying climate change. Here, a simple technique to remove the inherent trend is introduced so that any remaining trend can be examined separately for evidence of a climate change. As this technique does not use the standard definition of a broken record, our records* are differentiated by an asterisk. Results for the period 1961-2010 indicate that the number of record* low daily minimum temperatures has been significantly and steadily decreasing nearly everywhere across the United States while the number of record* high daily minimum temperatures has been predominantly increasing. Trends in record* low and record* high daily maximum temperatures are generally weaker and more spatially mixed in sign. These results are consistent with other studies examining changes expected in a warming climate.

Contribution of Modis Satellite Image to Estimate the Daily Air Temperature in the Casablanca City, Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahi, Hicham; Rhinane, Hassan; Bensalmia, Ahmed

2016-10-01

Air temperature is considered to be an essential variable for the study and analysis of meteorological regimes and chronics. However, the implementation of a daily monitoring of this variable is very difficult to achieve. It requires sufficient of measurements stations density, meteorological parks and favourable logistics. The present work aims to establish relationship between day and night land surface temperatures from MODIS data and the daily measurements of air temperature acquired between [2011-20112] and provided by the Department of National Meteorology [DMN] of Casablanca, Morocco. The results of the statistical analysis show significant interdependence during night observations with correlation coefficient of R2=0.921 and Root Mean Square Error RMSE=1.503 for Tmin while the physical magnitude estimated from daytime MODIS observation shows a relatively coarse error with R2=0.775 and RMSE=2.037 for Tmax. A method based on Gaussian process regression was applied to compute the spatial distribution of air temperature from MODIS throughout the city of Casablanca.

Calcitonin receptors are ancient modulators for rhythms of preferential temperature in insects and body temperature in mammals.

PubMed

Goda, Tadahiro; Doi, Masao; Umezaki, Yujiro; Murai, Iori; Shimatani, Hiroyuki; Chu, Michelle L; Nguyen, Victoria H; Okamura, Hitoshi; Hamada, Fumika N

2018-01-15

Daily body temperature rhythm (BTR) is essential for maintaining homeostasis. BTR is regulated separately from locomotor activity rhythms, but its molecular basis is largely unknown. While mammals internally regulate BTR, ectotherms, including Drosophila , exhibit temperature preference rhythm (TPR) behavior to regulate BTR. Here, we demonstrate that the diuretic hormone 31 receptor (DH31R) mediates TPR during the active phase in Drosophila DH31R is expressed in clock cells, and its ligand, DH31, acts on clock cells to regulate TPR during the active phase. Surprisingly, the mouse homolog of DH31R, calcitonin receptor (Calcr), is expressed in the suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN) and mediates body temperature fluctuations during the active phase in mice. Importantly, DH31R and Calcr are not required for coordinating locomotor activity rhythms. Our results represent the first molecular evidence that BTR is regulated distinctly from locomotor activity rhythms and show that DH31R/Calcr is an ancient specific mediator of BTR during the active phase in organisms ranging from ectotherms to endotherms. © 2018 Goda et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

Telenomus remus Nixon egg parasitization of three species of Spodoptera under different temperatures.

PubMed

Pomari, A F; Bueno, A F; Bueno, R C O F; Menezes, A O

2013-08-01

Telenomus remus Nixon is a promising biocontrol agent as an egg parasitoid of Spodoptera spp., but the lack of information on the host-parasitoid interactions in this system precludes its applied use in agriculture. Therefore, we studied the parasitism capacity of T. remus on eggs of Spodoptera cosmioides (Walker), Spodoptera eridania (Cramer), and Spodoptera frugiperda (Smith) in a range of temperatures (19, 22, 25, 28, 31, and 34 ± 1°C) under controlled conditions (70 ± 10% RH and 12 h photophase). Egg masses of Spodoptera spp. were offered to a single-mated T. remus female on a daily basis. More than 80% lifetime parasitism on eggs of S. cosmioides, S. frugiperda, and S. eridania was reached from 1 to 5, 1 to 7, and 1 to 9 days, respectively, at temperatures from 19 to 34°C. More than 80% parasitization was obtained at extreme temperatures for all hosts studied. Lifetime parasitization of S. frugiperda, S. cosmioides, and S. eridania was affected by temperature, with the lowest values for S. frugiperda (34°C) and S. cosmioides (19 and 34°C). Parasitization of S. eridania eggs was reduced around 18% at 28 and 31°C, but dropped more severely at 34°C. Parasitoid longevity was reduced as temperature increased. Thus, our data indicated that T. remus might be suitable as a biocontrol agent against S. eridania, S. cosmioides, and S. frugiperda in geographical areas that fit the temperature range studied here, even though T. remus parasitism was reduced at 34°C.

Non-Instrumented Incubation of a Recombinase Polymerase Amplification Assay for the Rapid and Sensitive Detection of Proviral HIV-1 DNA

PubMed Central

Lillis, Lorraine; Lehman, Dara; Singhal, Mitra C.; Cantera, Jason; Singleton, Jered; Labarre, Paul; Toyama, Anthony; Piepenburg, Olaf; Parker, Mathew; Wood, Robert; Overbaugh, Julie; Boyle, David S.

2014-01-01

Sensitive diagnostic tests for infectious diseases often employ nucleic acid amplification technologies (NAATs). However, most NAAT assays, including many isothermal amplification methods, require power-dependent instrumentation for incubation. For use in low resource settings (LRS), diagnostics that do not require consistent electricity supply would be ideal. Recombinase polymerase amplification (RPA) is an isothermal amplification technology that has been shown to typically work at temperatures ranging from 25–43°C, and does not require a stringent incubation temperature for optimal performance. Here we evaluate the ability to incubate an HIV-1 RPA assay, intended for use as an infant HIV diagnostic in LRS, at ambient temperatures or with a simple non-instrumented heat source. To determine the range of expected ambient temperatures in settings where an HIV-1 infant diagnostic would be of most use, a dataset of the seasonal range of daily temperatures in sub Saharan Africa was analyzed and revealed ambient temperatures as low as 10°C and rarely above 43°C. All 24 of 24 (100%) HIV-1 RPA reactions amplified when incubated for 20 minutes between 31°C and 43°C. The amplification from the HIV-1 RPA assay under investigation at temperatures was less consistent below 30°C. Thus, we developed a chemical heater to incubate HIV-1 RPA assays when ambient temperatures are between 10°C and 30°C. All 12/12 (100%) reactions amplified with chemical heat incubation from ambient temperatures of 15°C, 20°C, 25°C and 30°C. We also observed that incubation at 30 minutes improved assay performance at lower temperatures where detection was sporadic using 20 minutes incubation. We have demonstrated that incubation of the RPA HIV-1 assay via ambient temperatures or using chemical heaters yields similar results to using electrically powered devices. We propose that this RPA HIV-1 assay may not need dedicated equipment to be a highly sensitive tool to diagnose infant HIV-1 in LRS. PMID:25264766

Non-instrumented incubation of a recombinase polymerase amplification assay for the rapid and sensitive detection of proviral HIV-1 DNA.

PubMed

Lillis, Lorraine; Lehman, Dara; Singhal, Mitra C; Cantera, Jason; Singleton, Jered; Labarre, Paul; Toyama, Anthony; Piepenburg, Olaf; Parker, Mathew; Wood, Robert; Overbaugh, Julie; Boyle, David S

2014-01-01

Sensitive diagnostic tests for infectious diseases often employ nucleic acid amplification technologies (NAATs). However, most NAAT assays, including many isothermal amplification methods, require power-dependent instrumentation for incubation. For use in low resource settings (LRS), diagnostics that do not require consistent electricity supply would be ideal. Recombinase polymerase amplification (RPA) is an isothermal amplification technology that has been shown to typically work at temperatures ranging from 25-43°C, and does not require a stringent incubation temperature for optimal performance. Here we evaluate the ability to incubate an HIV-1 RPA assay, intended for use as an infant HIV diagnostic in LRS, at ambient temperatures or with a simple non-instrumented heat source. To determine the range of expected ambient temperatures in settings where an HIV-1 infant diagnostic would be of most use, a dataset of the seasonal range of daily temperatures in sub Saharan Africa was analyzed and revealed ambient temperatures as low as 10°C and rarely above 43°C. All 24 of 24 (100%) HIV-1 RPA reactions amplified when incubated for 20 minutes between 31°C and 43°C. The amplification from the HIV-1 RPA assay under investigation at temperatures was less consistent below 30°C. Thus, we developed a chemical heater to incubate HIV-1 RPA assays when ambient temperatures are between 10°C and 30°C. All 12/12 (100%) reactions amplified with chemical heat incubation from ambient temperatures of 15°C, 20°C, 25°C and 30°C. We also observed that incubation at 30 minutes improved assay performance at lower temperatures where detection was sporadic using 20 minutes incubation. We have demonstrated that incubation of the RPA HIV-1 assay via ambient temperatures or using chemical heaters yields similar results to using electrically powered devices. We propose that this RPA HIV-1 assay may not need dedicated equipment to be a highly sensitive tool to diagnose infant HIV-1 in LRS.

Impacts of day versus night warming on soil microclimate: results from a semiarid temperate steppe.

PubMed

Xia, Jianyang; Chen, Shiping; Wan, Shiqiang

2010-06-15

One feature of climate warming is that increases in daily minimum temperature are greater than those in daily maximum temperature. Changes in soil microclimate in response to the asymmetrically diurnal warming scenarios can help to explain responses of ecosystem processes. In the present study, we examined the impacts of day, night, and continuous warming on soil microclimate in a temperate steppe in northern China. Our results showed that day, night, and continuous warming (approximately 13Wm(-2) with constant power mode) significantly increased daily mean soil temperature at 10cm depth by 0.71, 0.78, and 1.71 degrees C, respectively. Night warming caused greater increases in nighttime mean and daily minimum soil temperatures (0.74 and 0.99 degrees C) than day warming did (0.60 and 0.66 degrees C). However, there were no differences in the increases in daytime mean and daily maximum soil temperature between day (0.81 and 1.13 degrees C) and night (0.81 and 1.10 degrees C) warming. The differential effects of day and night warming on soil temperature varied with environmental factors, including photosynthetic active radiation, vapor-pressure deficit, and wind speed. When compared with the effect of continuous warming on soil temperature, the summed effects of day and night warming were lower during daytime, but greater at night, thus leading to equality at daily scale. Mean volumetric soil moisture at the depth of 0-40cm significantly decreased under continuous warming in both 2006 (1.44 V/V%) and 2007 (0.76 V/V%). Day warming significantly reduced volumetric soil moisture only in 2006, whereas night warming had no effect on volumetric soil moisture in both 2006 and 2007. Given the different diurnal warming patterns and variability of environmental factors among ecosystems, these results highlight the importance of incorporating the differential impacts of day and night warming on soil microclimate into the predictions of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate warming. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

European seasonal mortality and influenza incidence due to winter temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballester, Joan; Rodó, Xavier; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François Richard

2016-10-01

Recent studies have vividly emphasized the lack of consensus on the degree of vulnerability (see ref. ) of European societies to current and future winter temperatures. Here we consider several climate factors, influenza incidence and daily numbers of deaths to characterize the relationship between winter temperature and mortality in a very large ensemble of European regions representing more than 400 million people. Analyses highlight the strong association between the year-to-year fluctuations in winter mean temperature and mortality, with higher seasonal cases during harsh winters, in all of the countries except the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Belgium. This spatial distribution contrasts with the well-documented latitudinal orientation of the dependency between daily temperature and mortality within the season. A theoretical framework is proposed to reconcile the apparent contradictions between recent studies, offering an interpretation to regional differences in the vulnerability to daily, seasonal and long-term winter temperature variability. Despite the lack of a strong year-to-year association between winter mean values in some countries, it can be concluded that warmer winters will contribute to the decrease in winter mortality everywhere in Europe.

Estimating the extreme low-temperature event using nonparametric methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Silva, Anisha

This thesis presents a new method of estimating the one-in-N low temperature threshold using a non-parametric statistical method called kernel density estimation applied to daily average wind-adjusted temperatures. We apply our One-in-N Algorithm to local gas distribution companies (LDCs), as they have to forecast the daily natural gas needs of their consumers. In winter, demand for natural gas is high. Extreme low temperature events are not directly related to an LDCs gas demand forecasting, but knowledge of extreme low temperatures is important to ensure that an LDC has enough capacity to meet customer demands when extreme low temperatures are experienced. We present a detailed explanation of our One-in-N Algorithm and compare it to the methods using the generalized extreme value distribution, the normal distribution, and the variance-weighted composite distribution. We show that our One-in-N Algorithm estimates the one-in- N low temperature threshold more accurately than the methods using the generalized extreme value distribution, the normal distribution, and the variance-weighted composite distribution according to root mean square error (RMSE) measure at a 5% level of significance. The One-in- N Algorithm is tested by counting the number of times the daily average wind-adjusted temperature is less than or equal to the one-in- N low temperature threshold.

Daily temperature change in relation to the risk of childhood bacillary dysentery among different age groups and sexes in a temperate city in China.

PubMed

Li, K; Zhao, K; Shi, L; Wen, L; Yang, H; Cheng, J; Wang, X; Su, H

2016-02-01

In recent years, many studies have found that ambient temperature is significantly associated with bacillary dysentery (BD). However, there is limited evidence on the relationship between temperature and childhood BD in temperate areas. To investigate the relationship between daily mean temperature (MT) and childhood BD in China. Data on daily MT and childhood BD between 2006 and 2012 were collected from the Bureau of Meteorology and the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention in Hefei, Anhui Province, China. A Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to analyse the effects of temperature on childhood BD across different age and sex subgroups. An increase in temperature was significantly associated with childhood BD, and each 1 °C increase corresponded to an increase of 1.58% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.46-2.71%] in the number of cases of BD. Children aged 0-5 years and girls were particularly sensitive to the effects of temperature. High temperatures may increase the risk of childhood BD in Hefei. Children aged 0-5 years and girls appear to be particularly sensitive to the effects of high temperature. Copyright © 2015 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is greater temperature change within a day associated with increased emergency admissions for schizophrenia?

PubMed

Zhao, Desheng; Zhang, Xulai; Xie, Mingyu; Cheng, Jian; Zhang, Heng; Wang, Shusi; Li, Kesheng; Yang, Huihui; Wen, Liying; Wang, Xu; Su, Hong

2016-10-01

Diurnal temperature range (DTR), as an important index of climate change, has been increasingly used to evaluate the impacts of temperature variability on human health. However, little is known about the effects of DTR on schizophrenia. The present study aims to examine the relationship between DTR and schizophrenia admissions, and further, to explore whether the association varied by individual characteristics and study periods. A Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was applied to analyze daily DTR and schizophrenia data from Hefei, China during 2005 to 2014, after adjusting for long-term and seasonal trends, mean temperature, relative humidity and other confounding factors. An acute adverse effect of extremely high DTR on schizophrenia was observed, with a 2.7% (95% CI: 1.007-1.047) increase of daily schizophrenia admissions after exposure to extremely high DTR (95th percentile vs. 50th percentile). The risk for schizophrenia onset due to large DTR exposure increased from the first five years (2005-2009) to the second five years (2010-2014). Additionally, the patient aged 15-29 and 50-64years, male patients, patients born in spring/autumn, and married patients appeared to be more vulnerable to DTR effect. However, there was no significant association between moderately high DTR (75th percentile) and schizophrenia. This study suggests that extremely high DTR is a potential trigger for schizophrenia admissions in Hefei, China. Our findings may provide valuable information to decisions-makers and guidance to health practitioners. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Viviparity in high-altitude Phrynocephalus lizards is adaptive because embryos cannot fully develop without maternal thermoregulation.

PubMed

Wang, Zheng; Lu, Hong-Liang; Ma, Li; Ji, Xiang

2014-03-01

Viviparous Phrynocephalus lizards (Agamidae) are mainly restricted to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China. In this study, we used Phrynocephalus vlangalii females kept under seven thermal regimes for the whole gestation period to test the hypothesis that viviparity in high-altitude Phrynocephalus lizards is adaptive because embryos cannot fully develop without maternal thermoregulation. All females at 24 °C and 93% of the females at 28 °C failed to give birth or produced stillborns, and proportionally fewer females gave birth at 29 or 35 °C than at 32 °C. Though the daily temperatures encountered were unsuitable for embryonic development, 95% of the females in nature and 89% of the females thermoregulating in the laboratory gave birth. There was no shift in the thermal preferences of females when they were pregnant. Although thermal conditions inside natural burrows were unsuitable for embryonic development, mass and sprint speed were both greater in neonates produced in nature. Our data show that (1) long-term exposure of P. vlangalii embryos to temperatures outside the range of 29-35 °C may result in the failure of development, but daily or short-term exposure may not necessarily increase embryonic mortality; (2) low gestation temperatures slow but do not arrest embryonic development, and females produce high-quality offspring in the shortest possible time by maintaining gestation temperatures close to the upper thermal limit for embryonic development; and (3) viviparity is currently adaptive at high elevations because embryos in nature cannot fully develop without relying on maternal thermoregulation. Our data validate the hypothesis tested.

Estimation of stream conditions in tributaries of the Klamath River, northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manhard, Christopher V.; Som, Nicholas A.; Jones, Edward C.; Perry, Russell W.

2018-01-01

Because of their critical ecological role, stream temperature and discharge are requisite inputs for models of salmonid population dynamics. Coho Salmon inhabiting the Klamath Basin spend much of their freshwater life cycle inhabiting tributaries, but environmental data are often absent or only seasonally available at these locations. To address this information gap, we constructed daily averaged water temperature models that used simulated meteorological data to estimate daily tributary temperatures, and we used flow differentials recorded on the mainstem Klamath River to estimate daily tributary discharge. Observed temperature data were available for fourteen of the major salmon bearing tributaries, which enabled estimation of tributary-specific model parameters at those locations. Water temperature data from six mid-Klamath Basin tributaries were used to estimate a global set of parameters for predicting water temperatures in the remaining tributaries. The resulting parameter sets were used to simulate water temperatures for each of 75 tributaries from 1980-2015. Goodness-of-fit statistics computed from a cross-validation analysis demonstrated a high precision of the tributary-specific models in predicting temperature in unobserved years and of the global model in predicting temperatures in unobserved streams. Klamath River discharge has been monitored by four gages that broadly intersperse the 292 kilometers from the Iron Gate Dam to the Klamath River mouth. These gages defined the upstream and downstream margins of three reaches. Daily discharge of tributaries within a reach was estimated from 1980-2015 based on drainage-area proportionate allocations of the discharge differential between the upstream and downstream margin. Comparisons with measured discharge on Indian Creek, a moderate-sized tributary with naturally regulated flows, revealed that the estimates effectively approximated both the variability and magnitude of discharge.

Temperature modifies the acute effect of particulate air pollution on mortality in eight Chinese cities.

PubMed

Meng, Xia; Zhang, Yuhao; Zhao, Zhuohui; Duan, Xiaoli; Xu, Xiaohui; Kan, Haidong

2012-10-01

Both temperature and particulate air pollution are associated with increased death risk. However, whether the effect of particulate air pollution on mortality is modified by temperature remains unsettled. A stratified time-series analysis was conducted to examine whether the effects of particulate matter less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM(10)) on mortality was modified by temperature in eight Chinese cities. Poisson regression models incorporating natural spline smoothing functions were used to adjust for long-term and seasonal trends of mortality, as well as other time-varying covariates. The bivariate response surface model was applied to visually examine the potential interacting effect. The associations between PM(10) and mortality were stratified by temperature to examine effect modification. The averaged daily concentrations of PM(10) in the eight Chinese cities ranged from 65 μg/m(3) to 124 μg/m(3), which were much higher than in Western countries. We found evidence that the effects of PM(10) on mortality may depend on temperature. The eight-city combined analysis showed that on "normal" (5th-95th percentile) temperature days, a 10-μg/m(3) increment in PM(10) corresponded to a 0.54% (95% CI, 0.39 to 0.69) increase of total mortality, 0.56% (95% CI, 0.36 to 0.76) increase of cardiovascular mortality, and 0.80% (95% CI, 0.64 to 0.96) increase of respiratory mortality. On high temperature (>95th percentile) days, the estimates increased to 1.35% (95% CI, 0.80 to 1.91) for total mortality, 1.57% (95% CI, 0.69 to 2.46) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.79% (95% CI, 0.75 to 2.83) for respiratory mortality. We did not observe significant effect modification by extreme low temperature. Extreme high temperature increased the associations of PM(10) with daily mortality. These findings may have implication for the health impact associated with both air pollution and global climate change. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Shearing at the end of summer affects body temperature of free-living Angora goats ( Capra aegagrus) more than does shearing at the end of winter.

PubMed

Hetem, R S; de Witt, B A; Fick, L G; Fuller, A; Kerley, G I H; Maloney, S K; Meyer, L C R; Mitchell, D

2009-07-01

Angora goats are known to be vulnerable to cold stress, especially after shearing, but their thermoregulatory responses to shearing have not been measured. We recorded activity, and abdominal and subcutaneous temperatures, for 10 days pre-shearing and post-shearing, in 10 Angora goats inhabiting the succulent thicket of the Eastern Cape, South Africa, in both March (late summer) and September (late winter). Within each season, environmental conditions were similar pre-shearing and post-shearing, but September was an average 5°C colder than March. Shearing resulted in a decreased mean (P < 0.0001), minimum (P < 0.0001) and maximum daily abdominal temperature (P < 0.0001). Paradoxically, the decrease in daily mean (P = 0.03) and maximum (P = 0.01) abdominal temperatures, from pre-shearing to post-shearing, was greater in March than in September. Daily amplitude of body temperature rhythm (P < 0.0001) and the maximum rate of abdominal temperature rise (P < 0.0001) increased from pre-shearing to post-shearing, resulting in an earlier diurnal peak in abdominal temperature (P = 0.001) post-shearing. These changes in amplitude, rate of abdominal temperature rise and time of diurnal peak in abdominal temperature suggest that the goats' thermoregulatory system was more labile after shearing. Mean daily subcutaneous temperatures also decreased post-shearing (P < 0.0001), despite our index goat selecting more stable microclimates after shearing in March (P = 0.03). Following shearing, there was an increased difference between abdominal and subcutaneous temperatures (P < 0.0001) at night, suggesting that the goats used peripheral vasoconstriction to limit heat loss. In addition to these temperature changes, mean daily activity increased nearly two-fold after March shearing, but not September shearing. This increased activity after March shearing was likely the result of an increased foraging time, food intake and metabolic rate, as suggested by the increased water influx (P = 0.0008). Thus, Angora goats entered a heat conservation mode after shearing in both March and September. That the transition from the fleeced to the shorn state had greater thermoregulatory consequences in March than in September may provide a mechanistic explanation for Angora goats' vulnerability to cold in summer.

Daily rhythms of blood pressure, heart rate, and body temperature in fed and fasted male dogs.

PubMed

Piccione, G; Caola, G; Refinetti, R

2005-10-01

Daily or circadian rhythmicity in physiological processes has been described in a large number of species of birds and mammals. However, in dogs, most studies have either failed to detect rhythmicity or have found that rhythmicity reflects merely an acute exogenous effect of feeding rather than an autonomous rhythmic process. In the present study, we investigated the rhythmicity of body temperature, blood pressure, and heart rate in dogs fed daily as well as in dogs deprived of food for 60 h. Our results document clear rhythmicity in all three parameters and demonstrate that the rhythmicity is independent of the feeding schedule. The failure of various previous investigations to document daily rhythmicity in dogs is probably due to lack of experimental rigour rather than to weakness of daily rhythmicity in dogs.

Development of a database-driven system for simulating water temperature in the lower Yakima River main stem, Washington, for various climate scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Voss, Frank; Maule, Alec

2013-01-01

A model for simulating daily maximum and mean water temperatures was developed by linking two existing models: one developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and one developed by the Bureau of Reclamation. The study area included the lower Yakima River main stem between the Roza Dam and West Richland, Washington. To automate execution of the labor-intensive models, a database-driven model automation program was developed to decrease operation costs, to reduce user error, and to provide the capability to perform simulations quickly for multiple management and climate change scenarios. Microsoft© SQL Server 2008 R2 Integration Services packages were developed to (1) integrate climate, flow, and stream geometry data from diverse sources (such as weather stations, a hydrologic model, and field measurements) into a single relational database; (2) programmatically generate heavily formatted model input files; (3) iteratively run water temperature simulations; (4) process simulation results for export to other models; and (5) create a database-driven infrastructure that facilitated experimentation with a variety of scenarios, node permutations, weather data, and hydrologic conditions while minimizing costs of running the model with various model configurations. As a proof-of-concept exercise, water temperatures were simulated for a "Current Conditions" scenario, where local weather data from 1980 through 2005 were used as input, and for "Plus 1" and "Plus 2" climate warming scenarios, where the average annual air temperatures used in the Current Conditions scenario were increased by 1degree Celsius (°C) and by 2°C, respectively. Average monthly mean daily water temperatures simulated for the Current Conditions scenario were compared to measured values at the Bureau of Reclamation Hydromet gage at Kiona, Washington, for 2002-05. Differences ranged between 1.9° and 1.1°C for February, March, May, and June, and were less than 0.8°C for the remaining months of the year. The difference between current conditions and measured monthly values for the two warmest months (July and August) were 0.5°C and 0.2°C, respectively. The model predicted that water temperature generally becomes less sensitive to air temperature increases as the distance from the mouth of the river decreases. As a consequence, the difference between climate warming scenarios also decreased. The pattern of decreasing sensitivity is most pronounced from August to October. Interactive graphing tools were developed to explore the relative sensitivity of average monthly and mean daily water temperature to increases in air temperature for model output locations along the lower Yakima River main stem.

Body temperature and thermal environment in a generalized arboreal anthropoid, wild mantled howling monkeys (Alouatta palliata).

PubMed

Thompson, Cynthia L; Williams, Susan H; Glander, Kenneth E; Teaford, Mark F; Vinyard, Christopher J

2014-05-01

Free-ranging primates are confronted with the challenge of maintaining an optimal range of body temperatures within a thermally dynamic environment that changes daily, seasonally, and annually. While many laboratory studies have been conducted on primate thermoregulation, we know comparatively little about the thermal pressures primates face in their natural, evolutionarily relevant environment. Such knowledge is critical to understanding the evolution of thermal adaptations in primates and for comparative evaluation of humans' unique thermal adaptations. We examined temperature and thermal environment in free-ranging, mantled howling monkeys (Alouatta palliata) in a tropical dry forest in Guanacaste, Costa Rica. We recorded subcutaneous (Tsc ) and near-animal ambient temperatures (Ta ) from 11 animals over 1586.5 sample hours during wet and dry seasons. Howlers displayed considerable variation in Tsc , which was largely attributable to circadian effects. Despite significant seasonal changes in the ambient thermal environment, howlers showed relatively little evidence for seasonal changes in Tsc . Howlers experienced warm thermal conditions which led to body cooling relative to the environment, and plateaus in Tsc at increasingly warm Ta . They also frequently faced cool thermal conditions (Ta  < Tsc ) in which Tsc was markedly elevated compared with Ta . These data add to a growing body of evidence that non-human primates have more labile body temperatures than humans. Our data additionally support a hypothesis that, despite inhabiting a dry tropical environment, howling monkeys experience both warm and cool thermal pressures. This suggests that thermal challenges may be more prevalent for primates than previously thought, even for species living in nonextreme thermal environments. Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Host selection and lethality of attacks by sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) in laboratory studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swink, William D.

2003-01-01

Parasitic-phase sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) are difficult to study in the wild. A series of laboratory studies (1984-1995) of single attacks on lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), and burbot (Lota lota) examined host size selection; determined the effects of host size, host species, host strain, and temperature on host mortality; and estimated the weight of hosts killed per lamprey. Rainbow trout were more able and burbot less able to survive attacks than lake trout. Small sea lampreys actively selected the larger of two small hosts; larger sea lampreys attacked larger hosts in proportion to the hosts' body sizes, but actively avoided shorter hosts (a?? 600 mm) when larger were available. Host mortality was significantly less for larger (43-44%) than for smaller hosts (64%). However, the yearly loss of hosts per sea lamprey was less for small hosts (range, 6.8-14.2 kg per sea lamprey) than larger hosts (range, 11.4-19.3 kg per sea lamprey). Attacks at the lower of two temperature ranges (6.1-11.8A?C and 11.1-15.0A?C) did not significantly reduce the percentage of hosts killed (54% vs. 69%, p > 0.21), but longer attachment times at lower temperatures reduced the number of hosts attacked (33 vs. 45), and produced the lowest loss of hosts (6.6 kg per sea lamprey). Low temperature appeared to offset other factors that increase host mortality. Reanalysis of 789 attacks pooled from these studies, using forward stepwise logistic regression, also identified mean daily temperature as the dominant factor affecting host mortality. Observations in Lakes Superior, Huron, and Ontario support most laboratory results.

Warmer is healthier: effects on mortality rates of changes in average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations and temperatures in 100 U.S. cities.

PubMed

Cox, Louis A; Popken, Douglas A; Ricci, Paolo F

2013-08-01

Recent studies have indicated that reducing particulate pollution would substantially reduce average daily mortality rates, prolonging lives, especially among the elderly (age ≥ 75). These benefits are projected by statistical models of significant positive associations between levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels and daily mortality rates. We examine the empirical correspondence between changes in average PM2.5 levels and temperatures from 1999 to 2000, and corresponding changes in average daily mortality rates, in each of 100 U.S. cities in the National Mortality and Morbidity Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) data base, which has extensive PM2.5, temperature, and mortality data for those 2 years. Increases in average daily temperatures appear to significantly reduce average daily mortality rates, as expected from previous research. Unexpectedly, reductions in PM2.5 do not appear to cause any reductions in mortality rates. PM2.5 and mortality rates are both elevated on cold winter days, creating a significant positive statistical relation between their levels, but we find no evidence that reductions in PM2.5 concentrations cause reductions in mortality rates. For all concerned, it is crucial to use causal relations, rather than statistical associations, to project the changes in human health risks due to interventions such as reductions in particulate air pollution. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Does Weather Matter? The Effect of Weather Patterns and Temporal Factors on Pediatric Orthopedic Trauma Volume

PubMed Central

Livingston, Kristin S.; Miller, Patricia E.; Lierhaus, Anneliese; Matheney, Travis H.; Mahan, Susan T.

2016-01-01

Objectives: Orthopaedists often speculate how weather and school schedule may influence pediatric orthopedic trauma volume, but few studies have examined this. This study aims to determine: how do weather patterns, day, month, season and public school schedule influence the daily frequency of pediatric orthopedic trauma consults and admissions? Methods: With IRB approval, orthopedic trauma data from a level 1 pediatric trauma center, including number of daily orthopedic trauma consults and admissions, were collected from July 2009 to March 2012. Historical weather data (high temperatures, precipitation and hours of daylight), along with local public school schedule data were collected for the same time period. Univariate and multivariate regression models were used to show the average number of orthopedic trauma consults and admissions as a function of weather and temporal variables. Results: High temperature, precipitation, month and day of the week significantly affected the number of daily consults and admissions. The number of consults and admissions increased by 1% for each degree increase in temperature (p=0.001 and p<0.001, respectively), and decreased by 21% for each inch of precipitation (p<0.001, p=0.006). Daily consults on snowy days decreased by an additional 16% compared to days with no precipitation. November had the lowest daily consult and admission rate, while September had the highest. Daily consult rate was lowest on Wednesdays and highest on Saturdays. Holiday schedule was not independently significant. Conclusion: Pediatric orthopedic trauma consultations and admissions are highly linked to temperature and precipitation, as well as day of the week and time of year. PMID:27990193

Does Weather Matter? The Effect of Weather Patterns and Temporal Factors on Pediatric Orthopedic Trauma Volume.

PubMed

Livingston, Kristin S; Miller, Patricia E; Lierhaus, Anneliese; Matheney, Travis H; Mahan, Susan T

2016-01-01

Orthopaedists often speculate how weather and school schedule may influence pediatric orthopedic trauma volume, but few studies have examined this. This study aims to determine: how do weather patterns, day, month, season and public school schedule influence the daily frequency of pediatric orthopedic trauma consults and admissions? With IRB approval, orthopedic trauma data from a level 1 pediatric trauma center, including number of daily orthopedic trauma consults and admissions, were collected from July 2009 to March 2012. Historical weather data (high temperatures, precipitation and hours of daylight), along with local public school schedule data were collected for the same time period. Univariate and multivariate regression models were used to show the average number of orthopedic trauma consults and admissions as a function of weather and temporal variables. High temperature, precipitation, month and day of the week significantly affected the number of daily consults and admissions. The number of consults and admissions increased by 1% for each degree increase in temperature (p=0.001 and p<0.001, respectively), and decreased by 21% for each inch of precipitation (p<0.001, p=0.006). Daily consults on snowy days decreased by an additional 16% compared to days with no precipitation. November had the lowest daily consult and admission rate, while September had the highest. Daily consult rate was lowest on Wednesdays and highest on Saturdays. Holiday schedule was not independently significant. Pediatric orthopedic trauma consultations and admissions are highly linked to temperature and precipitation, as well as day of the week and time of year.

Impact of high temperature stress on floret fertility and individual grain weight of grain sorghum: sensitive stages and thresholds for temperature and duration

PubMed Central

Prasad, P. V. V.; Djanaguiraman, Maduraimuthu; Perumal, Ramasamy; Ciampitti, Ignacio A.

2015-01-01

Sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] yield formation is severely affected by high temperature stress during reproductive stages. This study pursues to (i) identify the growth stage(s) most sensitive to high temperature stress during reproductive development, (ii) determine threshold temperature and duration of high temperature stress that decreases floret fertility and individual grain weight, and (iii) quantify impact of high daytime temperature during floret development, flowering and grain filling on reproductive traits and grain yield under field conditions. Periods between 10 and 5 d before anthesis; and between 5 d before- and 5 d after-anthesis were most sensitive to high temperatures causing maximum decreases in floret fertility. Mean daily temperatures >25°C quadratically decreased floret fertility (reaching 0% at 37°C) when imposed at the start of panicle emergence. Temperatures ranging from 25 to 37°C quadratically decreased individual grain weight when imposed at the start of grain filling. Both floret fertility and individual grain weights decreased quadratically with increasing duration (0–35 d or 49 d during floret development or grain filling stage, respectively) of high temperature stress. In field conditions, imposition of temperature stress (using heat tents) during floret development or grain filling stage also decreased floret fertility, individual grain weight, and grain weight per panicle. PMID:26500664

Constant diurnal temperature regime alters the impact of simulated climate warming on a tropical pseudoscorpion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeh, Jeanne A.; Bonilla, Melvin M.; Su, Eleanor J.; Padua, Michael V.; Anderson, Rachel V.; Zeh, David W.

2014-01-01

Recent theory suggests that global warming may be catastrophic for tropical ectotherms. Although most studies addressing temperature effects in ectotherms utilize constant temperatures, Jensen's inequality and thermal stress considerations predict that this approach will underestimate warming effects on species experiencing daily temperature fluctuations in nature. Here, we tested this prediction in a neotropical pseudoscorpion. Nymphs were reared in control and high-temperature treatments under a constant daily temperature regime, and results compared to a companion fluctuating-temperature study. At constant temperature, pseudoscorpions outperformed their fluctuating-temperature counterparts. Individuals were larger, developed faster, and males produced more sperm, and females more embryos. The greatest impact of temperature regime involved short-term, adult exposure, with constant temperature mitigating high-temperature effects on reproductive traits. Our findings demonstrate the importance of realistic temperature regimes in climate warming studies, and suggest that exploitation of microhabitats that dampen temperature oscillations may be critical in avoiding extinction as tropical climates warm.

Putting mechanisms into crop production models.

PubMed

Boote, Kenneth J; Jones, James W; White, Jeffrey W; Asseng, Senthold; Lizaso, Jon I

2013-09-01

Crop growth models dynamically simulate processes of C, N and water balance on daily or hourly time-steps to predict crop growth and development and at season-end, final yield. Their ability to integrate effects of genetics, environment and crop management have led to applications ranging from understanding gene function to predicting potential impacts of climate change. The history of crop models is reviewed briefly, and their level of mechanistic detail for assimilation and respiration, ranging from hourly leaf-to-canopy assimilation to daily radiation-use efficiency is discussed. Crop models have improved steadily over the past 30-40 years, but much work remains. Improvements are needed for the prediction of transpiration response to elevated CO₂ and high temperature effects on phenology and reproductive fertility, and simulation of root growth and nutrient uptake under stressful edaphic conditions. Mechanistic improvements are needed to better connect crop growth to genetics and to soil fertility, soil waterlogging and pest damage. Because crop models integrate multiple processes and consider impacts of environment and management, they have excellent potential for linking research from genomics and allied disciplines to crop responses at the field scale, thus providing a valuable tool for deciphering genotype by environment by management effects. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Retrieval of air temperatures from crowd-sourced battery temperatures of cell phones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overeem, Aart; Robinson, James; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Steeneveld, Gert-Jan; Horn, Berthold K. P.

2013-04-01

Accurate air temperature observations are important for urban meteorology, for example to study the urban heat island and adverse effects of high temperatures on human health. The number of available temperature observations is often relatively limited. A new development is presented to derive temperature information for the urban canopy from an alternative source: cell phones. Battery temperature data were collected by users of an Android application for cell phones (opensignal.com). The application automatically sends battery temperature data to a server for storage. In this study, battery temperatures are averaged in space and time to obtain daily averaged battery temperatures for each city separately. A regression model, which can be related to a physical model, is employed to retrieve daily air temperatures from battery temperatures. The model is calibrated with observed air temperatures from a meteorological station of an airport located in or near the city. Time series of air temperatures are obtained for each city for a period of several months, where 50% of the data is for independent verification. Results are presented for Buenos Aires, London, Los Angeles, Paris, Mexico City, Moscow, Rome, and Sao Paulo. The evolution of the retrieved air temperatures often correspond well with the observed ones. The mean absolute error of daily air temperatures is less than 2 degrees Celsius, and the bias is within 1 degree Celsius. This shows that monitoring air temperatures employing an Android application holds great promise. Since 75% of the world's population has a cell phone, 20% of the land surface of the earth has cellular telephone coverage, and 500 million devices use the Android operating system, there is a huge potential for measuring air temperatures employing cell phones. This could eventually lead to real-time world-wide temperature maps.

Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change

PubMed Central

Roberts, James J.

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1 increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans. PMID:28683083

Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roberts, James J.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Schmidt, Travis S.; Walters, David M.

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans.

Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change.

PubMed

Roberts, James J; Fausch, Kurt D; Schmidt, Travis S; Walters, David M

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1 increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans.

Development of an effective and potentially scalable weather generator for temperature and growing degree days

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmani, Elham; Friederichs, Petra; Keller, Jan; Hense, Andreas

2016-05-01

The main purpose of this study is to develop an easy-to-use weather generator (WG) for the downscaling of gridded data to point measurements at regional scale. The WG is applied to daily averaged temperatures and annual growing degree days (GDD) of wheat. This particular choice of variables is motivated by future investigations on temperature impacts as the most important climate variable for wheat cultivation under irrigation in Iran. The proposed statistical downscaling relates large-scale ERA-40 reanalysis to local daily temperature and annual GDD. Long-term local observations in Iran are used at 16 synoptic stations from 1961 to 2001, which is the common period with ERA-40 data. We perform downscaling using two approaches: the first is a linear regression model that uses the ERA-40 fingerprints (FP) defined by the squared correlation with local variability, and the second employs a linear multiple regression (MR) analysis to relate the large-scale information at the neighboring grid points to the station data. Extending the usual downscaling, we implement a WG providing uncertainty information and realizations of the local temperatures and GDD by adding a Gaussian random noise. ERA-40 reanalysis well represents the local daily temperature as well as the annual GDD variability. For 2-m temperature, the FPs are more localized during the warm compared with the cold season. While MR is slightly superior for daily temperature time series, FP seems to perform best for annual GDD. We further assess the quality of the WGs applying probabilistic verification scores like the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and the respective skill score. They clearly demonstrate the superiority of WGs compared with a deterministic downscaling.

A model for predicting Xanthomonas arboricola pv. pruni growth as a function of temperature

PubMed Central

Llorente, Isidre; Montesinos, Emilio; Moragrega, Concepció

2017-01-01

A two-step modeling approach was used for predicting the effect of temperature on the growth of Xanthomonas arboricola pv. pruni, causal agent of bacterial spot disease of stone fruit. The in vitro growth of seven strains was monitored at temperatures from 5 to 35°C with a Bioscreen C system, and a calibrating equation was generated for converting optical densities to viable counts. In primary modeling, Baranyi, Buchanan, and modified Gompertz equations were fitted to viable count growth curves over the entire temperature range. The modified Gompertz model showed the best fit to the data, and it was selected to estimate the bacterial growth parameters at each temperature. Secondary modeling of maximum specific growth rate as a function of temperature was performed by using the Ratkowsky model and its variations. The modified Ratkowsky model showed the best goodness of fit to maximum specific growth rate estimates, and it was validated successfully for the seven strains at four additional temperatures. The model generated in this work will be used for predicting temperature-based Xanthomonas arboricola pv. pruni growth rate and derived potential daily doublings, and included as the inoculum potential component of a bacterial spot of stone fruit disease forecaster. PMID:28493954

Daily rhythms of body temperature and heat production of sibling Mastomys species from different ecosystems--the response to photoperiod manipulations.

PubMed

Haim, Abraham; Zubidat, Abed Elsalam; van Aarde, Rudi J

2008-12-01

We compared body temperature (T(b)) and metabolic rates, measured as oxygen consumption (VO(2)), daily rhythms of two sibling species of the genus Mastomys. We also studied their responses to long day (16L: 8D, LD) and short day (8L: 16D, SD) photoperiod manipulations at a constant ambient temperature of 26+1 degrees C. We noted significant differences in T(b) and VO(2) daily rhythm patterns, under SD and LD-acclimation between the sibling species. These differences explain adaptation to the climatic conditions that prevail in the different ecosystems where these species live. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that physiological differences between the two siblings are measured by using chronobiological methods.

Intermediate photovoltaic system application experiment operational performance report: Volume 5, for Beverly High School, Beverly, Mass.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1982-02-01

Performance data for the month of January, 1982 for a grid connected photovoltaic power supply in Massachusetts are presented. Data include: monthly and daily electrical energy produced; monthly and daily solar energy incident on the array; monthly and daily array efficiency; plots of energy produced as a function of power level, voltage, cell temperature and time of day; power conditioner input, output and efficiency for each of two individual units and for the total power conditioning system; photovoltaic system efficiency; capacity factor; PV system to load and grid to load energies and corresponding dollar values; daily energy supplies to the load by the PV system; daily PV system availability; monthly and hourly insolation; monthly and hourly temperature average; monthly and hourly wind speed; wind direction distribution; average heating and cooling degree days; number of freeze/thaw cycles; and the data acquisition mode and recording interval plot.

Observations of Urban Heat Island Mitigation in California Coastal Cities due to a Sea Breeze Induced Coastal-Cooling ``REVERSE-REACTION'' to Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bornstein, R. D.; Lebassi, B.; Gonzalez, J.

2010-12-01

The study evaluated long-term (1948-2005) air temperatures at over 300 urban and rural sites in California (CA) during summer (June-August, JJA). The aggregate CA results showed asymmetric warming, as daily min temperatures increased faster than daily max temperatures. The spatial distributions of daily max temperatures in the heavily urbanized South Coast and San Francisco Bay Area air basins, however, exhibited a complex pattern, with cooling at low-elevation (mainly urban) coastal-areas and warming at (mainly rural) inland areas. Previous studies have suggested that cooling summer max temperatures in CA were due to increased irrigation, coastal upwelling, or cloud cover. The current hypothesis, however, is that this temperature pattern arises from a “reverse-reaction” to greenhouse gas (GHG) induced global-warming. In this hypothesis, the global warming of inland areas resulted in an increased (cooling) sea breeze activity in coastal areas. That daytime summer coastal cooling was seen in coastal urban areas implies that urban heat island (UHI) warming was weaker than the reverse-reaction sea breeze cooling; if there was no UHI effect, then the cooling would have been even stronger. Analysis of daytime summer max temperatures at four adjacent pairs of urban and rural sites near the inland cooling-warming boundary, however, showed that the rural sites experienced cooling, while the urban sites showed warming due to UHI development. The rate of heat island growth was estimated as the sum of each urban warming rate and the absolute magnitude of the concurrent adjacent rural cooling rate. Values ranged from 0.12 to 0.55 K decade-1, and were proportional to changes in urban population and urban extent. As Sacramento, Modesto, Stockton, and San José have grown in aerial extent (21 to 59%) and population (40 to 118%), part of the observed increased JJA max values could be due to increased daytime UHI-intensity. Without UHI effects, the currently observed JJA SFBA coastal-cooling area might have expanded to include these sites, as the first three are adjacent to rural airport sites that showed cooling max-values due to increased marine influences. In addition, all urbanized sites with decreasing max-values would probably show even larger cooling rates if UHI effects could be removed. Significant societal impacts may result from this observed reverse-reaction to GHG-warming. Possible beneficial effects (especially during periods of UHI growth) include decreased maximum: O3 levels, per-capita energy requirements for cooling, and human thermal-stress levels.

Using NASA Environmental Data to Enhance Public Health Decision Making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad; Crosson, William; Economou, Sigrid; Estes, Maurice, Jr.; Estes, Sue; Hemmings, Sarah; Kent, Shia; Puckett, Mark; Quattrochi, Dale; Wade, Gina;

Diurnal warming in shallow coastal seas: Observations from the Caribbean and Great Barrier Reef regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, X.; Minnett, P. J.; Berkelmans, R.; Hendee, J.; Manfrino, C.

2014-07-01

A good understanding of diurnal warming in the upper ocean is important for the validation of satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) against in-situ buoy data and for merging satellite SSTs taken at different times of the same day. For shallow coastal regions, better understanding of diurnal heating could also help improve monitoring and prediction of ecosystem health, such as coral reef bleaching. Compared to its open ocean counterpart which has been studied extensively and modeled with good success, coastal diurnal warming has complicating localized characteristics, including coastline geometry, bathymetry, water types, tidal and wave mixing. Our goal is to characterize coastal diurnal warming using two extensive in-situ temperature and weather datasets from the Caribbean and Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Results showed clear daily warming patterns in most stations from both datasets. For the three Caribbean stations where solar radiation is the main cause of daily warming, the mean diurnal warming amplitudes were about 0.4 K at depths of 4-7 m and 0.6-0.7 K at shallower depths of 1-2 m; the largest warming value was 2.1 K. For coral top temperatures of the GBR, 20% of days had warming amplitudes >1 K, with the largest >4 K. The bottom warming at shallower sites has higher daily maximum temperatures and lower daily minimum temperatures than deeper sites nearby. The averaged daily warming amplitudes were shown to be closely related to daily average wind speed and maximum insolation, as found in the open ocean. Diurnal heating also depends on local features including water depth, location on different sections of the reef (reef flat vs. reef slope), the relative distance from the barrier reef chain (coast vs. lagoon stations vs. inner barrier reef sites vs. outer rim sites); and the proximity to the tidal inlets. In addition, the influence of tides on daily temperature changes and its relative importance compared to solar radiation was quantified by calculating the ratio of power spectrum densities at the principal lunar semidiurnal M2 tide versus 24-hour cycle frequency representing mainly solar radiation forcing, i.e., (PSDM2/PSD24). Despite the fact that GBR stations are generally located at regions with large tidal changes, the tidal effects were modest: 80% of stations showed value of (PSDM2/PSD24) of less than 10%.

Simulation of Deep Water Renewal in Crater Lake, Oregon, USA under Current and Future Climate Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piccolroaz, S.; Wood, T. M.; Wherry, S.; Girdner, S.

2015-12-01

We applied a 1-dimensional lake model developed to simulate deep mixing related to thermobaric instabilities in temperate lakes to Crater Lake, a 590-m deep caldera lake in Oregon's Cascade Range known for its stunning deep blue color and extremely clear water, in order to determine the frequency of deep water renewal in future climate conditions. The lake model was calibrated with 6 years of water temperature profiles, and then simulated 10 years of validation data with an RMSE ranging from 0.81°C at 50 m depth to 0.04°C at 350-460 m depth. The simulated time series of heat content in the deep lake accurately captured extreme years characterized by weak and strong deep water renewal. The lake model uses wind speed and lake surface temperature (LST) as boundary conditions. LST projections under six climate scenarios from the CMIP5 intermodel comparison project (2 representative concentration pathways X 3 general circulation models) were evaluated with air2water, a simple lumped model that only requires daily values of downscaled air temperature. air2water was calibrated with data from 1993-2011, resulting in a RMSE between simulated and observed daily LST values of 0.68°C. All future climate scenarios project increased water temperature throughout the water column and a substantive reduction in the frequency of deepwater renewal events. The least extreme scenario (CNRM-CM5, RCP4.5) projects the frequency of deepwater renewal events to decrease from about 1 in 2 years in the present to about 1 in 3 years by 2100. The most extreme scenario (HadGEM2-ES, RCP8.5) projects the frequency of deepwater renewal events to be less than 1 in 7 years by 2100 and lake surface temperatures never cooling to less than 4°C after 2050. In all RCP4.5 simulations the temperature of the entire water column is greater than 4°C for increasing periods of time. In the RCP8.5 simulations, the temperature of the entire water column is greater than 4°C year round by the year 2060 (HadGEM2) or 2080 (CNRM-CM5); thus, the conditions required for thermobaric instability induced mixing become rare or non-existent in these projections. The results indicate that the frequency of deep water renewal events could change substantially in a warmer future climate, potentially altering the lake ecosystem and water clarity.

Thermal ecology of the Australian agamid Pogona barbata.

PubMed

Schäuble, Chloe S; Grigg, Gordon C

1998-05-01

This study compares the thermal ecology of male bearded dragon lizards (Pogona barbata) from south-east Queensland across two seasons: summer (1994-1995) and autumn (1995). Seasonal patterns of body temperature (T b ) were explored in terms of changes in the physical properties of the thermal environment and thermoregulatory effort. To quantify thermoregulatory effort, we compared behavioral and physiological variables recorded for observed lizards with those estimated for a thermoconforming lizard. The study lizards' field T b s varied seasonally (summer: grand daily mean (GDM) 34.6 ± 0.6°C, autumn: GDM 27.5 ± 0.3°C) as did maximum and minimum available operative temperatures (summer: GDM T max 42.1 ± 1.7°C, T min 32.2 ± 1.0°C, autumn: GDM T max 31.7 ± 1.2°C, T min 26.4 ± 0.5°C). Interestingly, the range of temperatures that lizards selected in a gradient (selected range) did not change seasonally. However, P. barbata thermoregulated more extensively and more accurately in summer than in autumn; lizards generally displayed behaviors affecting heat load nonrandomly in summer and randomly in autumn, leading to the GDM of the mean deviations of lizards' field T b s from their selected ranges being only 2.1 ± 0.5°C in summer, compared to 4.4 ± 0.5°C in autumn. This seasonal difference was not a consequence of different heat availability in the two seasons, because the seasonally available ranges of operative temperatures rarely precluded lizards from attaining field T b s within their selected range, should that have been the goal. Rather, thermal microhabitat distribution and social behavior appear to have had an important influence on seasonal levels of thermoregulatory effort.

Deciphering the Environmental Impacts on Rice Quality for Different Rice Cultivated Areas.

PubMed

Li, Xiukun; Wu, Lian; Geng, Xin; Xia, Xiuhong; Wang, Xuhong; Xu, Zhengjin; Xu, Quan

2018-01-19

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is cultivated in a wide range of climatic conditions, and is one of mankind's major staple foods. The interaction of environmental factors with genotype effects major agronomic traits such as yield, quality, and resistance in rice. However, studies on the environmental factors affecting agronomic traits are often difficult to conduct because most environmental factors are dynamic and constantly changing. A series of recombinant inbred lines (RILs) derived from an indica/japonica cross were planted into four typical rice cultivated areas arranging from latitude N22° to N42°. The environmental data from the heading to mature (45 days) stages were recorded for each RIL in the four areas. We determined that light, temperature, and humidity significantly affected the milling quality and cooking quality overall the four areas. Within each area, these environmental factors mainly affected the head rice ratio, grain length, alkali consumption, and amylose and protein content. Moreover, the effect of these environmental factors dynamically changed from heading to mature stage. Compared to light and humidity, temperature was more stable and predictable, and night temperature showed a stronger correlation efficiency to cooking quality than day temperature, and the daily temperature range had contrary effects compared to day and night temperature on grain quality. The present study evaluated the critical phase during the grain filling stage by calculating the dynamic changes of correlation efficiency between the quality traits and climate parameters. Our findings suggest that the sowing date could be adjusted to improve rice quality so as to adjust for environmental changes.

Evaluating the Impact of Global Warming on Water Balance of Maize by High-precision Controlled Experiment and MLCan model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Y.; Song, X.; Kumar, P.; Wu, Y.; Woo, D.; Le, P. V.; Ma, C.

2016-12-01

Increased temperature affects the agricultural hydrologic cycle not only by changing precipitation levels, evapotranspiration and the magnitude and timing of run-off, but also by impacting water flows and soil water dynamics. Accurate prediction of hydrologic change under global warming requires high-precision experiment and mathematical model to determine water interaction between interfaces in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. In this study, the weighting lysimeter and chamber were coupled to monitor water balance component dynamics of maize under controlled ambient temperature and elevated temperature of 2°C conditions. A mechanistic multilayer canopy-soil-root system model (MLCan) was used to predict hydrologic fluxes variation under different elevated temperature scenarios after calibration with experimental results. The results showed that maize growth period reduced 8 days under increased temperature of 2°C. The mean daily evapotranspiration, soil water storage change, and drainage was 2.66 mm, -2.75 mm, and 0.22 mm under controlled temperature condition, respectively. When temperature was elevated by 2°C, the average daily ET for maize significantly increased about 6.7% (p<0.05). However, there were non-significant impacts of increased temperature on the daily soil water storage change and drainage (p>0.05). Quantification of changes in water balance components induced by temperature increase for maize is critical for optimizing irrigation water management practices and improving water use efficiency.

A new time-series methodology for estimating relationships between elderly frailty, remaining life expectancy, and ambient air quality.

PubMed

Murray, Christian J; Lipfert, Frederick W

2012-01-01

Many publications estimate short-term air pollution-mortality risks, but few estimate the associated changes in life-expectancies. We present a new methodology for analyzing time series of health effects, in which prior frailty is assumed to precede short-term elderly nontraumatic mortality. The model is based on a subpopulation of frail individuals whose entries and exits (deaths) are functions of daily and lagged environmental conditions: ambient temperature/season, airborne particles, and ozone. This frail susceptible population is unknown; its fluctuations cannot be observed but are estimated using maximum-likelihood methods with the Kalman filter. We used an existing 14-y set of daily data to illustrate the model and then tested the assumption of prior frailty with a new generalized model that estimates the portion of the daily death count allocated to nonfrail individuals. In this demonstration dataset, new entries into the high-risk pool are associated with lower ambient temperatures and higher concentrations of particulate matter and ozone. Accounting for these effects on antecedent frailty reduces this at-risk population, yielding frail life expectancies of 5-7 days. Associations between environmental factors and entries to the at-risk pool are about twice as strong as for mortality. Nonfrail elderly deaths are seen to make only small contributions. This new model predicts a small short-lived frail population-at-risk that is stable over a wide range of environmental conditions. The predicted effects of pollution on new entries and deaths are robust and consistent with conventional morbidity/mortality times-series studies. We recommend model verification using other suitable datasets.

Regional climate projections for Northeast India: an appraisal from CORDEX South Asia experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, D.; Dimri, A. P.

2017-11-01

An appraisal of the recent changes in the present climate (1970-2005) followed by the possible future (2006-2100) changes in the climate has been carried out in the current study using the observations and regional climate model (REMO) over the Northeast Indian region. The regional climate model simulation has been used from the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) South Asia framework. A consistent warming for the winter (December, January, and February (DJF)) and post-monsoon (October and November (ON)) has been observed for the present climate especially in the northern and eastern parts of the region. The changes in the near future (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099) temperature climatology suggest a rise in temperature by 3-8 °C across different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The rate of long-term (1970-2099) increase in temperature has been found ranging between 0.01 and 0.07 °C/year across the region in the least emission (RCP2.6) to strongest emission (RCP8.5) scenarios. The daily mean precipitation statistics suggests an overall increasing trends of precipitation during the pre-monsoon (March, April, and May (MAM)) for the present across the region with a mixed trend in other seasons. A change in daily mean precipitation ranging from - 60% (during winter) to + 40% during post-monsoon has been projected by the model across different RCPs. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 show a strong deficit in precipitation in the warmer climate across the region as compared to RCP2.6. This fact is also confirmed from the long-term trend of precipitation where a consistent decreasing trend dominates in the RCP4.5- and RCP8.5-simulated precipitations by the end of the twenty-first century. A large model bias in temperature and precipitation along with high amount of uncertainty is associated with the model simulations; thus, in order to use the projections, a more careful approach to improve the utility of downscaled product should be adopted.

Simulation of streamflow in the Pleasant, Narraguagus, Sheepscot, and Royal Rivers, Maine, using watershed models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Nielsen, Martha G.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began a study in 2008 to investigate anticipated changes in summer streamflows and stream temperatures in four coastal Maine river basins and the potential effects of those changes on populations of endangered Atlantic salmon. To achieve this purpose, it was necessary to characterize the quantity and timing of streamflow in these rivers by developing and evaluating a distributed-parameter watershed model for a part of each river basin by using the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). The GIS (geographic information system) Weasel, a USGS software application, was used to delineate the four study basins and their many subbasins, and to derive parameters for their geographic features. The models were calibrated using a four-step optimization procedure in which model output was evaluated against four datasets for calibrating solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, annual and seasonal water balances, and daily streamflows. The calibration procedure involved thousands of model runs that used the USGS software application Luca (Let us calibrate). Luca uses the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) global search algorithm to calibrate the model parameters. The calibrated watershed models performed satisfactorily, in that Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) statistic values for the calibration periods ranged from 0.59 to 0.75 (on a scale of negative infinity to 1) and NSE statistic values for the evaluation periods ranged from 0.55 to 0.73. The calibrated watershed models simulate daily streamflow at many locations in each study basin. These models enable natural resources managers to characterize the timing and amount of streamflow in order to support a variety of water-resources efforts including water-quality calculations, assessments of water use, modeling of population dynamics and migration of Atlantic salmon, modeling and assessment of habitat, and simulation of anticipated changes to streamflow and water temperature resulting from changes forecast for air temperature and precipitation.

Estimating the onset of cambial activity in Scots pine in northern Finland by means of the heat-sum approach.

PubMed

Seo, Jeong-Wook; Eckstein, Dieter; Jalkanen, Risto; Rickebusch, Sophie; Schmitt, Uwe

2008-01-01

We estimated the date of onset (Date(est)) of cambial activity by the pinning method in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) trees at Vanttauskoski (Site 1) and Laanila (Site 2) near the latitudinal limit of Scots pine in northern Finland. In each year and at each site, observations were made on a different set of five trees. The estimated dates of onset of cambial activity were compared with the corresponding heat sums, calculated in degree-days according to two models. Within years, Date(est) varied among trees by up to 15 days at Site 1 and up to 13 days at Site 2. Among years, mean Date(est) varied by 15.3 days at Site 1 and 12.0 days at Site 2. The overall mean Date(est) differed between sites by 6 days (June 5 at Site 1 and June 11 at Site 2). Among all trees in all years, the mean number of degree days (d.d.) calculated from mean daily temperature above a threshold of 5 degrees C before Date(est) ranged from 68.7 to 135 d.d. at Site 1 and from 37.4 to 154.7 d.d. at Site 2. Among years, the mean heat sum before Date(est )ranged from 94 to 112.5 d.d. at Site 1 and from 61.4 to 136 d.d. at Site 2. Variation among years in heat sum before Date(est) at Site 2 was highly significant, indicating that one or more factors other than, or in addition to, heat sum determines the onset of cambial activity in Scots pine. Similar results were obtained when heat sum was computed from the area between the sine wave generated by daily maximum and minimum temperature and the threshold temperature.

The association between diurnal temperature range and emergency room admissions for cardiovascular, respiratory, digestive and genitourinary disease among the elderly: a time series study.

PubMed

Wang, Min-zhen; Zheng, Shan; He, Shi-lin; Li, Bei; Teng, Huai-jin; Wang, Shi-gong; Yin, Ling; Shang, Ke-zheng; Li, Tan-shi

2013-07-01

To evaluate the short-term effect of diurnal temperature range (DTR) on emergency room (ER) admissions among elderly adults in Beijing. After controlling the long-time and seasonal trend, weather, air pollution and other confounding factors, a semi-parametric generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze the exposure-effect relationship between DTR and daily ER admissions among elderly adults with different lag structures from 2009 to 2011 in Beijing. We examined the effects of DTR for stratified groups by age and gender, and conducted the modifying effect of season on DTR to test the possible interaction. Significant associations were found between DTR and four major causes of daily ER admissions among elderly adults in Beijing. A 1 °C increase in the 8-day moving average of DTR (lag 07) corresponded to an increase of 2.08% (95% CI: 0.88%-3.29%) in respiratory ER admissions and 2.14% (95% CI: 0.71%-3.59%) in digestive ER admissions. A 1 °C increase in the 3-day and 6-day moving average of DTR (lag 02 and lag 05) corresponded to a 0.76% (95% CI: 0.07%-1.46%) increase in cardiovascular ER admissions, and 1.81% (95% CI: 0.21%-3.45%) increase in genitourinary ER admissions, respectively. The people aged 75 years and older were associated more strongly with DTR than the 65-74 age group. The modifying effect of season on DTR was observed and it was various in four causes. This study strengthens the evidence that DTR is an independent risk factor for ER admissions among elderly persons. Some prevention programs that target the elderly and other high risk subgroups for impending large temperature changes may reduce the impact of DTR on people's health. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Constraining estimates of global soil respiration by quantifying sources of variability.

PubMed

Jian, Jinshi; Steele, Meredith K; Thomas, R Quinn; Day, Susan D; Hodges, Steven C

2018-05-10

Quantifying global soil respiration (R SG ) and its response to temperature change are critical for predicting the turnover of terrestrial carbon stocks and their feedbacks to climate change. Currently, estimates of R SG range from 68 to 98 Pg C year -1 , causing considerable uncertainty in the global carbon budget. We argue the source of this variability lies in the upscaling assumptions regarding the model format, data timescales, and precipitation component. To quantify the variability and constrain R SG , we developed R SG models using Random Forest and exponential models, and used different timescales (daily, monthly, and annual) of soil respiration (R S ) and climate data to predict R SG . From the resulting R SG estimates (range = 66.62-100.72 Pg), we calculated variability associated with each assumption. Among model formats, using monthly R S data rather than annual data decreased R SG by 7.43-9.46 Pg; however, R SG calculated from daily R S data was only 1.83 Pg lower than the R SG from monthly data. Using mean annual precipitation and temperature data instead of monthly data caused +4.84 and -4.36 Pg C differences, respectively. If the timescale of R S data is constant, R SG estimated by the first-order exponential (93.2 Pg) was greater than the Random Forest (78.76 Pg) or second-order exponential (76.18 Pg) estimates. These results highlight the importance of variation at subannual timescales for upscaling to R SG . The results indicated R SG is lower than in recent papers and the current benchmark for land models (98 Pg C year -1 ), and thus may change the predicted rates of terrestrial carbon turnover and the carbon to climate feedback as global temperatures rise. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Daily and annual patterns of thermoregulation in painted turtles (Chrysemys picta marginata) living in a thermally variable marsh in Northern Michigan.

PubMed

Rowe, John W; Converse, Paul E; Clark, David L

2014-02-01

The capacity for an ectothermic reptile to thermoregulate has implications for many components of its life history. Over two years, we studied thermoregulation in a population of Midland painted turtles (Chrysemys picta marginata) in a shallow, thermally variable wetland during summer in Northern Michigan. Mean body temperature (Tb) of free-ranging turtles was greater in 2008 (25.8 °C) than in 2010 (19.7 °C). Laboratory determined thermoregulatory set point (Tset) ranged from 25 °C (Tset-min) to 31 °C (Tset-max) and was lower during the fall (17-26 °C). Deviations of Tb distributions from field measured operative temperatures (Te) and indices of thermoregulation indicated that C. picta marginata were capable of a limited degree of thermoregulation. Operative temperatures and thermal quality (de=|Tset-min-Te| and |Te-Tset-max|) cycled daily with maximal thermal quality occurring during late morning and late afternoon. The accuracy of thermoregulation (db=|Tset-min-Tb| and |Tb-Tset-max|) was maximal (db values were minimal) as Tb declined and traversed Tset during the late afternoon-early evening hours and was higher on cloudy days than on sunny days because relatively low Te values decreased the number of Tb values that were above Tset. Our index of thermal exploitation (Ex=frequency of Tb observations within Tset) was 36%, slightly lower than that reported for an Ontario population of C. picta marginata. Regression of db (thermal accuracy) on de (thermal quality) indicated that turtles invested more in thermoregulation when thermal quality was low and when water levels were high than when they were low. There were no intersexual differences in mean Tb throughout the year but females had relatively high laboratory determined Tb values in the fall, perhaps reflecting the importance of maintaining ovarian development prior to winter. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Spatial variation in diurnal courses of stem temperature of Betula platyphylla and Fraxinus mandshurica and its influencing factors].

PubMed

Li, Yu Ran; Wang, Xing Chang; Wang, Chuan Kuan; Liu, Fan; Zhang, Quan Zhi

2017-10-01

Plant temperature is an important parameter for estimating energy balance and vegetation respiration of forest ecosystem. To examine spatial variation in diurnal courses of stem temperatures (T s ) and its influencing factors, we measured the T s with copper constantan thermocouples at different depths, heights and azimuths within the stems of two broadleaved tree species with contrasting bark and wood properties, Betula platyphylla and Fraxinus mandshurica. The results showed that the monthly mean diurnal courses of the T s largely followed that of air temperature with a 'sinusoi dal' pattern, but the T s lagged behind the air temperature by 0 h at the stem surface to 4 h at 6 cm depth. The daily maximal values and ranges of the diurnal course of T s decreased gradually with increasing measuring depth across the stem and decreasing measuring height along the stem. The circumferential variation in T s was marginal, with slightly higher daily maximal values in the south and west directions during the daytime of the dormant season. Differences in thermal properties (i.e. , specific heat capacity and thermal conductivity) of both bark and wood tissue between the two species contributed to the inter specific variations in the radial variation in T s through influencing the heat exchange between the stem surface and ambient air as well as heat diffusion within the stem. The higher reflectance of the bark of B. platyphylla decreased the influence of solar radiation on T s . The stepwise regression showed that the diurnal courses of T s could be well predicted by the environmental factors (R 2 > 0.85) with an order of influence ranking as air temperature > water vapor pressure > net radiation > wind speed. It is necessary to take the radial, vertical and inter specific varia-tions in T s into account when estimating biomass heat storage and stem CO2 efflux.

Spatiotemporal variations in the difference between satellite-observed daily maximum land surface temperature and station-based daily maximum near-surface air temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Xu; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Yao, Yitong; Peng, Shushi; Wang, Kaicun; Piao, Shilong

2017-02-01

There is an increasing demand to integrate land surface temperature (LST) into climate research due to its global coverage, which requires a comprehensive knowledge of its distinctive characteristics compared to near-surface air temperature (Tair). Using satellite observations and in situ station-based data sets, we conducted a global-scale assessment of the spatial and seasonal variations in the difference between daily maximum LST and daily maximum Tair (δT, LST - Tair) during 2003-2014. Spatially, LST is generally higher than Tair over arid and sparsely vegetated regions in the middle-low latitudes, but LST is lower than Tair in tropical rainforests due to strong evaporative cooling, and in the high-latitude regions due to snow-induced radiative cooling. Seasonally, δT is negative in tropical regions throughout the year, while it displays a pronounced seasonality in both the midlatitudes and boreal regions. The seasonality in the midlatitudes is a result of the asynchronous responses of LST and Tair to the seasonal cycle of radiation and vegetation abundance, whereas in the boreal regions, seasonality is mainly caused by the change in snow cover. Our study identified substantial spatial heterogeneity and seasonality in δT, as well as its determinant environmental drivers, and thus provides a useful reference for monitoring near-surface air temperature changes using remote sensing, particularly in remote regions.

Simulating the potential effects of climate change in two Colorado basins and at two Colorado ski areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Battaglin, William; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steve

2011-01-01

The mountainous areas of Colorado are used for tourism and recreation, and they provide water storage and supply for municipalities, industries, and agriculture. Recent studies suggest that water supply and tourist industries such as skiing are at risk from climate change. In this study, a distributed-parameter watershed model, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), is used to identify the potential effects of future climate on hydrologic conditions for two Colorado basins, the East River at Almont and the Yampa River at Steamboat Springs, and at the subbasin scale for two ski areas within those basins.Climate-change input files for PRMS were generated by modifying daily PRMS precipitation and temperature inputs with mean monthly climate-change fields of precipitation and temperature derived from five general circulation model (GCM) simulations using one current and three future carbon emission scenarios. All GCM simulations of mean daily minimum and maximum air temperature for the East and Yampa River basins indicate a relatively steady increase of up to several degrees Celsius from baseline conditions by 2094. GCM simulations of precipitation in the two basins indicate little change or trend in precipitation, but there is a large range associated with these projections. PRMS projections of basin mean daily streamflow vary by scenario but indicate a central tendency toward slight decreases, with a large range associated with these projections.Decreases in water content or changes in the spatial extent of snowpack in the East and Yampa River basins are important because of potential adverse effects on water supply and recreational activities. PRMS projections of each future scenario indicate a central tendency for decreases in basin mean snow-covered area and snowpack water equivalent, with the range in the projected decreases increasing with time. However, when examined on a monthly basis, the projected decreases are most dramatic during fall and spring. Presumably, ski area locations are picked because of a tendency to receive snow and keep snowpack relative to the surrounding area. This effect of ski area location within the basin was examined by comparing projections of March snow-covered area and snowpack water equivalent for the entire basin with more local projections for the portion of the basin that represents the ski area in the PRMS models. These projections indicate a steady decrease in March snow-covered area for the basins but only small changes in March snow-covered area at both ski areas for the three future scenarios until around 2050. After 2050, larger decreases are possible, but there is a large range in the projections of future scenarios. The rates of decrease for snowpack water equivalent and precipitation that falls as snow are similar at the basin and subbasin scale in both basins. Results from this modeling effort show that there is a wide range of possible outcomes for future snowpack conditions in Colorado. The results also highlight the differences between projections for entire basins and projections for local areas or subbasins within those basins.